ETM Macro Podcast

In this episode, Russell speaks with Dr Frans Cronje, CEO of the South African Institute of Race Relations and the Centre for Risk Analysis. He lays out his view on how ANC ideology and factionalism resolve the seeming paradox of the ANC pursuit of a lockdown strategy that is likely to damage its popular support. Frans explains why corporate South Africa keeps failing to oppose bad ANC policy and predicts a haphazard road out of lockdown lasting into the final third of 2020. 00:00:00 – Key Point 1. The COV19 lockdown economic disaster is a net negative for ANC popularity. 00:06:55 – Key Point 2. …But the ANC is committed to socialist ideology and patronage. 00:13:07 – Key Point 3. …And the socialists and securocrats aim to use COV19 to advance state power. 00:24:13 – Why corporate SA didn't resist the lockdown. 00:28:00 – What will the road out of lockdown look like?

In this episode, RusselI speaks with Dr Jonathan Witt, an anaesthetist in South Africa's public healthcare system, podcaster and political commentator. Jonathan brings his knowledge of the medical research to put the COVID-19 pandemic into empirical context, explains why it looks like a repeat of the H1N1 overestimation, how social media is hyping the present pandemic, COVID-19 risks in South Africa, what coming out of lockdown could look like, and how the government might use this crisis to increase its control over healthcare and private enterprise. Episode Outline: 00:00:00 – Global COVID-19 pandemic state of play currently 00:05:00 – Lessons from H1N1 and fear accelerators in 2020 00:13:53 – COVID-19 risks in South Africa 00:22:04 – View from the frontlines and SA healthcare system stress 00:30:45 – COVID-19 vs Macro Pain narrative war 00:36:15 – Life after lockdown and political risks