The Kelly Letter Podcast

It's not looking good on campus, where the road to equality morphed into the fiction that everybody is identical. But as long as their credit cards keep working, the stock market should be fine.— Record your question at 303-747-4428— Join my email list at https://jasonkelly.com

No, the Dollar is Not in Danger — For a simple reason: there's nothing to take its place.Read the episode notes at https://jasonkelly.com/2023/04/no-the-dollar-is-not-in-danger/Record your investing question at 303-747-4428. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com

Will ChatGPT Drive a Tech Bull Market? — Sure it will. It got lazy mega tech off the dime, accelerated corporate computing upgrades, and will keep improving.Read the episode notes at https://jasonkelly.com/2023/04/will-chatgpt-drive-a-tech-bull-market/Record your investing question at 303-747-4428. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com

Is JEPI Too New to Trust? — If JEPI had a decade of data, would you trust it more? Probably not much.Read the article version of this episode at https://jasonkelly.com/2023/03/is-jepi-too-new-to-trust/Record your investing question at 303-747-4428. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com

Income ETFs: JEPI vs NUSI, QYLD, RYLD — Each generates income using a covered-call strategy. They pay much more than traditional income funds, but are more volatile. If you're running the right kind of plan, such volatility can be good. You have to know where the funds fit into your overall portfolio strategy. Read the article version of this episode at https://jasonkelly.com/2023/02/income-etfs-jepi-vs-nusi-qyld-ryld/ Record your investing question at 303-747-4428. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com

TQQQ vs SOXL vs UPRO. All deliver plenty of volatility for traders, but one stands above the others for long-term performance coupled with short-term trading potential—and is perfect for my 9Sig and Income Sig plans. Read the article version of this episode at https://jasonkelly.com/2023/02/best-3x-leveraged-etfs/ Record your investing question at 310-734-8889. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com

Surprise! TQQQ can do very well when simply bought and held over long time frames. But my 9Sig plan does even better with it by harnessing the high volatility. Record your investing question at 310-734-8889. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com

The Debt Ceiling—why do we have it, why do we hit it, why do politicians fight about it, what happens if they don't raise it? Record your investing question at 310-734-8889. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com

NEIL asks how much recovery we need to regain our year-end 2021 balance, NICK wants to know about moving his income plan's bond balance into a triple-leveraged stock fund, DOUG is trying to decide between the money market and bond market for his uninvested money, MICHELE's brother is worried that the dollar will crash on high federal debt and take down Wall Street and the US economy, and KENT reminds everybody that the key is controlling emotions and going with historical averages—hear, hear! Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

Harry asks if this is another "go nowhere" stock market, Mike wonders what past time frame reminds me of this one and how our plans would have fared through that earlier one, and John wants to know if the disappearance of easy Fed policy changes our plans' rules. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

BNP Paribas says that if history repeats, US stocks will take another leg down next year before the bear market ends. But what if history doesn't repeat? It didn't this fall. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

The Apple car has been downgraded and delayed. No more limousine style, with passengers facing each other in the seating area. It's going to feature a traditional, i.e. boring, design with a driver's seat, steering wheel, pedals, and no fully autonomous driving. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

Xi Jinping's legitimacy is in doubt as China rises up against its antiquated totalitarian government. Enough with strongman leaders. Follow the chants of the Shanghai crowd: “Xi Jinping! Step down!” Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

The problem with high inflation, for investors, is that it reduces earnings yield. In this episode, I show how. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

The issues of 2023 are coming into focus. They include a US recession, sovereign debt risk, housing markets, China's slowdown, and Europe's gas risk. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

Stocks shot higher from the June low because investors thought inflation had peaked. It hadn't, but it will, we're already seeing signs of it—and stocks are heading higher again. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

Stocks have done well in both rising and falling interest rate environments. Inflation is the bigger danger, and the Fed is fighting it hard. Good news: Stocks do very well in falling inflation environments—and we should be heading into one. Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

Sure the shipping giant's revenues are down, but is it really because of a recession or about people shopping online less after the pandemic? Even if it is due to an economic slowdown, isn't that what the Fed wants? Sign up for my free email list at https://jasonkelly.com/

Emotions are running hot, bouncing from expecting the Fed to get more aggressive to expecting them to slow down, but projections haven't changed. Show notes with links and comments at https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

It‘s starting to look a lot like cable, including commercials, and the content is on endless repeat. Show notes with links and comments at https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

Let's take a peek at the Apple car.Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

Will the metaverse be worth $427B in five years?Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

The Economist thinks big tech is finished. Are they right?Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

The Inflation Reduction Act means nothing to inflation or stocks, focused as it is on climate change mitigation and healthcare reform.Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

Nancy Pelosi lands in Taiwan, China goes ballistic, but none of this means anything to stock-market investors.Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

Jeff Sommer at The New York Times faced the fog of stock-market uncertainty, and readers attacked him for it. But he wasn't wrong. The stock market is uncertain, which is why you need a system.Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

Earnings season is not killing stocks, small caps roar back, and doubt about our economic growth model is no reason to abandon stocks.A few weeks ago, bears warned that if you thought the stock market had been rough this year through June, just you wait until second-quarter earnings stink and the bottom falls out.Well, we're a couple of weeks into it and all is well.Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

BlackRock downgrades stocks but still recommends them for the long term, so it must be recommending short-term timing, which doesn't work.Plus, the bond market catches a bid and yields are falling; and PepsiCo, for one, is doing fine in this inflationary environment.Show notes with links and comments at:https://jasonkelly.com/podcast/

The Kelly Letter goes all-in to stocks, inflation is stabilizing, and past stock-market declines like this one led to solid recoveries.