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On episode 476, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: a crazy month in the stock market, Situational Awareness, leverage always gets you, the semiconductor crash, 60/40 will never die, the behavior gap lives, One Wish Willow for the economy, a theory about the Fed, the economy is still booming, apathy for Bitcoin, the biggest movie weekend ever and much more. This episode is sponsored by YCharts. To get your copy of Top 10 Visuals, and receive 20% off your first YCharts Professional subscription through Animal Spirits. Visit https://go.ycharts.com/animal-spirits (Offer valid for new customers only.) Sign up for The Compound newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Follow Us On Social Media: Instagram: instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Find complete show notes on our blogs: Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense Michael Batnick's The Irrelevant Investor Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
From short-term interest rates to long-term bond yields, the Fed's credibility is being tested. Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets discussed inflation, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's outlook, and the options ahead.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today: Can the Fed hold the line? It's Wednesday, August 5th at 2pm in London. The Federal Reserve has a difficult job. The U.S. economy is a complex and varied ecosystem that covers everything from brain surgery to your burger order. The Fed is asked to keep prices stable and people employed using, for the most part, just one simple tool. A short-term interest rate, and without any control over what government policy or global events might bring. Currently, the Fed probably feels pretty good about its success with one half of this – in the job market, given that the unemployment rate is near historical lows. But it probably feels less successful about price stability. Over the last five years, overall prices in the U.S. economy have risen over 20 percent based on the Fed's preferred inflation measure. That's roughly double the increase that a goal of 2 percent annual inflation would otherwise bring. Into this complexity steps a new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh. He has emphasized two changes for his tenure. First, that inflation is too high and needs to come down. And second, that the Fed has historically communicated too much with the market, which Chair Warshkeep thinks has helped contribute to investors potentially taking too much risk while also restricting the Fed's options to act. What markets are now processing is a potential tension between these two goals. After all, high inflation is an immediate issue. In a world where the Fed is hoping to keep price increases at about 2 percent per year, their preferred measure, PCE inflation, is rising more than 3 percent on an annualized basis over the last three, six, and 12 months. In the latest ISM Manufacturing Survey, [the] measure of price increases among manufacturers is well above normal. In the face of that, one option for the Fed to combat this inflation would have been to raise interest rates. It didn't do that. Another would be to suggest that it was very close to taking action and likely to move soon. It didn't do that either. Indeed, our economists think that the market took Chair Warsh's lack of guidance and action at the most recent Fed's meeting to suggest a pretty high bar for rate hikes; and even the potential to redefine the Fed's 2 percent inflation target in favor of something more general and unspecified. The result was a market reaction that would suggest less focus on inflation. The prospects for rate hikes were reduced, the yield curve steepened, led by a sell-off of long-end yields, measures of expected inflation rose, and the U.S. dollar weakened. In the days since, markets have settled a bit. But the result is going to be a market that is now going to be much more sensitive to incoming inflation data. If that inflation data moderates in the second half of this year, as we at Morgan Stanley expect, then the Fed's approach could look justified – as the data suggests that neither action nor more communication about what they're going to do is necessary. But if inflation doesn't cooperate, the challenge becomes immediate. Christopher Waller, another member of the Fed, recently said that "Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option." The market will expect action and expect a framework explaining that action. Until that point, our rate strategists think that yield curves will continue to steepen. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
Let's talk about an inflation warning from the Fed….
On Wednesday, August 5, Brian Szytel recaps a mixed market day: the Dow rose 263 points while the S&P fell 12 and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with financials, healthcare, and staples leading as tech lagged after the prior day's momentum rally. He says markets are increasingly desensitized to the war and are more supported by fundamentals, highlighting Q2 earnings where 61% of companies have reported, 86% beat EPS (highest in five years), and 77% beat revenue. Economic data included a weaker ADP private payrolls print (44k vs. 75k consensus) and ISM services roughly in line at 54.1. He answers a question on why the Fed doesn't let rates float, outlining the Fed's evolution from lender of last resort to open market operations, yield curve control, and rate targeting, arguing reserve-currency status and global interconnectedness make free-floating impractical now. 00:00 Market Recap Mixed Session 00:53 Hormuz Headlines vs Fundamentals 01:56 Q2 Earnings Strength 03:14 Today's Economic Data 03:52 Should Rates Float Freely 04:20 Fed History and Evolution 05:41 Reserve Currency Reality 06:24 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Preview Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Jason features Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, who provides a sophisticated analysis of the current economic landscape and its impact on interest rates. Dale argues that investors expecting mortgage rates to decline significantly will be disappointed, as structural shifts in global savings and a move toward easier monetary policy may perversely drive long-term yields higher. He introduces the concept of "play action pass" to describe a Federal Reserve that might briefly tighten rates to gain credibility before pivoting to a dovish stance by late 2026. The discussion also explores geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and new leadership at the Fed, suggesting these factors contribute to a regime of persistent inflation. Ultimately, Dale emphasizes that housing affordability will remain a long-term challenge due to a global capital shortage and the Fed's changing strategy. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 0:00 Regardless of the environment 3:44 US single-family rental vacancy rate 5:32 Cost Segregation on the proforma in PropertyTracker.com 7:33 Home Equity Investment EquityLiberation.com 11:30 Speak to your Investment Counselors 1-800-Hartman Ext. 2 12:22 A note on housing inventory and affordability Darius Dale interview 15:58 Wall Street risk management 18:23 Interest rates will eventually break the LOCK-IN effect 26:45 The 'non-plan' of Kevin Warsh 31:50 What do you mean "interest rates" 33:54 Timing and the mortgage rates 39:21 The Trump factor 43:01 War and Wages 48:44 Housing Affordability 55:39 Conclusion and Accessibility of Research Get your FREE PropertyTracker.com account and join our FREE Masterclass every Wednesday EmpoweredInvestor.com/Wednesday http://equityliberation.com/ Reach out to our Investment Counselors 1-800- HARTMAN Ext. 2 _______________________________________________________________ Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://empoweredinvestor.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: https://empoweredinvestor.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: https://empoweredinvestor.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://empoweredinvestor.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://empoweredinvestor.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
Aug 4, 2026 – Stocks surged to record highs Tuesday as the S&P 500 and Dow rallied on blowout cloud earnings from Amazon and Microsoft. But CIO Peter Boockvar warns the AI-fueled melt-up may be a "bear trap." He breaks down the historic data center...
It's Q&A Wednesday, and we're answering your live chat questions on today's biggest investing, market, and economic topics. With the S&P 500 near record highs after weeks of consolidation, investors are asking what comes next. Is this breakout sustainable, or are markets setting up for another bout of volatility? Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff discuss market leadership, interest rates, inflation, AI, bonds, portfolio positioning, retirement planning, and whatever else is on your mind. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - AMD, Eli Lilly Earnings & Markets' New High 2:49 - Strait of Hormuz/Iran & Headlines 4:24 - Economic Data Weakens - JOLTS report 5:11 - The Thing About Consolidations & Breakouts 7:54 - Interest rates about to trigger bond buy signal 10:00 - Coffee & Keeping Lance Around 10:51 - Market Behavior & Investment Sentiment 12:19 - Core CPI vs Fed Funds Rate: Is the Fed wrong or the bond market wrong? 15:47 - Using Stablecoin to purchase international stocks 18:05 - Options strategies on parabolic moves 19:00 - US Debt Clock composition & Gold Purchases 23:16 - Will Yield Curve Control be eventually implemented? 24:50 - Is this a good week to rebalance? 27:18 - Investing in broad-market ETF's via SEP IRA 31:27 - Preferred Bonds vs Corp Bonds, & 60/40 Allocations 34:15 - Why you need inflation (why we invest) 39:28 - Understanding what you're buying (bonds) 42:17 - Emerging Market equities concentrated in PVR, VALE? 42:45 - Off balance Sheet AI Debt 43:14 - US purchase of Yen - a form of yield curve control? 46:49 - Traditional Pension + SS = ratio for equities? 48:25 - Two Types of Debt Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/HeU8LWC2rfo?feature=share ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Bonds In Your Portfolio: Why Ditching Them Is The Wrong Move" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/bonds-in-your-portfolio-why-ditching-them-is-the-wrong-move/ "AI Bear Case: What Skeptics Get Right And Wrong" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-bear-case-what-skeptics-get-right-and-wrong/ "The Momentum Crash: Is It Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-momentum-crash-is-it-over/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "New Highs, Now What?" https://youtu.be/K0SaWvIeYkQ ------- Watch our previous show, "The 60/40 Portfolio Is Not Dead" https://youtube.com/live/9KGokK9tGuA ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #Investing #Bonds #MarketOutlook FinancialPlanning #MarketOutlook
Alejandro Dolina, Patricio Barton, Gillespi Introducción • 0:01:14 Presentación humorística del programa y de los conductores Segmento Inicial • 0:08:17 Anuncios de funciones por los 40 años: La Trastienda, Teatro Helios y Antel Arena • 0:09:33 Presentación de Barton en la FED con su libro • 0:12:53 Invitación a show de La Butaro Maza y Oscar Delia • 0:13:56 Cómo participar de una doma • 0:45:34 Lectura y comentarios de mensajes de oyentes • 0:51:22 Mención del equipo de producción, sonido e investigaciones Segmento Dispositivo • 0:52:43 Shakespeare y las teorías sobre la autoría de sus obras • 1:13:07 "¿Será él?" por Alberto Merlo ♫ Segmento Humorístico • 1:18:09 Complicaciones actuales de las vacaciones en automóvil Sordo Gancé / Manuel Moreira • 1:31:42 Presentación del segmento musical • 1:32:21 "El deschave" ♫ • 1:36:27 "Once Upon a Long Ago" ♫ • 1:38:06 "Samba de una nota sola" ♫ • 1:39:52 "Las hojas muertas" ♫ • 1:43:00 Despedida y recordatorio de la función en La Trastienda (Resumen generado automáticamente con IA, puede contener errores)
A Vote of No Confidence! Are the Markets Losing Faith in the Fed's Inflation Fight? Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh and his minions are talking tough on inflation. But they haven't done anything. At the July Fed meeting, the central bank elected to hold rates steady for the sixth time, despite price inflation remaining persistently well above the stated 2 percent target. Based on the market reaction, investors are beginning to think the Fed is surrendering to inflation and will not raise rates again. In this week's Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the dichotomy between the Fed's words and its actions, explains why the markets are right to lack confidence in the Fed, and how a surrender to inflation will impact the precious metals markets.
In this episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, open with a cautionary tale from the AI-focused hedge fund Situation Awareness, whose founder went from up over 400% year-to-date to a 67% collapse in July, a stark reminder that concentration, leverage, and liquidity can undo even the best fundamental research.At the Fed's latest meeting, Chair Walsh's refusal to offer guidance sent long-term yields soaring instead of calming markets, with the 30-year hitting its highest level since 2007. Sonu explains why nominal GDP growth running near 6-8% (even as real growth stays soft) points to a genuinely inflationary growth environment, and why the bond market, not stocks, may be the real test of the new Fed chair's credibility. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google, and Oracle are now projected to spend over a trillion dollars in 2027 alone, close to 3% of GDP, with Microsoft and Amazon rewarded for showing results while Meta and Oracle get punished for spending without proof of ROI. They close with a look at GDP internals showing AI investment now accounts for over 40% of real GDP growth, banks breaking out to new highs as a bullish signal, a weakening dollar, and seasonal risks heading into August and September.[Key Takeaways]Situation Awareness, an AI-focused hedge fund, went from up over 400% year-to-date to down 67% in July after a concentrated, leveraged bet unwound, forcing a distressed sale of stock holdings to Citadel.Fed Chair Walsh's press conference offered little forward guidance, and long-term yields spiked in response, with the 30-year Treasury hitting its highest level since 2007 and 30-year mortgage rates climbing from 5.9% to 6.7% over the last five Fed meetings despite no rate changes.Nominal GDP growth has averaged 5.8% over the last six quarters (7.9% in Q2 alone), well above the 2010-2019 trend of 4%, supporting the view that this is an inflationary growth environment even as real GDP growth lags at 1.9%.The five largest hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Oracle) are now projected to spend over $1 trillion in CapEx in 2027 alone, up from earlier 2026 outlook estimates of $600 billion, with markets rewarding companies showing revenue results (Microsoft, Amazon) and punishing those that aren't (Meta, Oracle).AI-related hardware and software investment accounted for roughly 42% of real GDP growth over the last six quarters and now represents about 5% of GDP, surpassing the peak proportion seen during the dot-com boom.Bank stocks (KBE) are breaking out to new highs after a base dating back to 2007, a signal Ryan argues is historically a positive one for the broader bull market, even as seasonally weak August and September approach in a midterm year.Jump to:0:00 - Welcome And Quick Banter1:25 - Live Boston Show Announcement3:24 - AI Hedge Fund Blowup Lessons9:39 - Fed Meeting And Market Whiplash16:47 - Nominal Growth And Sticky Inflation28:37 - Hyperscalers March Toward One Trillion32:34 - Earnings Reactions From Big Tech43:45 - GDP Under The Hood And AI Share48:56 - Markets Sideways Seasonality And Banks53:33 - Dollar Drop International Angle And WrapConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
On this episode of the MeidasTouch Podcast: More Trump claims about a possible U.S.-Iran deal and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran's military signals it won't back down. Plus, the DOJ pretends to kills Trump's controversial "anti-weaponization fund" slush fund after Senate pressure, but we actually read the document. Spoiler alert: they're not being honest. Shocker, we know. The brothers also dig into Trump's remarks in the Oval covering, Jeanine Pirro's future after making the fatal mistake of telling the truth, along with market fears over the Fed and much more. Ben, Brett, and Jordy break it all down. Pre-order the new book from MeidasTouch, WTF America?!: The Way Out of This Hell and Back to Democracy, today: https://bit.ly/wtfamericayoutube Deals from our sponsors! BetterHelp: This is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at https://BetterHelp.com/MEIDAS today to get 10% off your first month and get on your way to being your best self! Smalls: For a limited time only, get 60% OFF plus FREE SHIPPING and FREE TREATS for LIFE at https://Smalls.com/meidas Quince: Go to https://Quince.com/meidas for FREE shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Miracle Made: Go to https://TryMiracle.com/Meidas and use the code MEIDAS to claim your free 3-piece towel set and save over 40% off. Subscribe to Meidas+ at https://meidasplus.com Get Meidas Merch: https://store.meidastouch.com Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast The Ken Harbaugh Show: https://meidasnews.com/tag/the-ken-harbaugh-show The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week we went deep on debt—all $72 trillion of it—and made the case that the bond market is the real economy, that the Fed has already lost control of the entire curve, and that when the AI trade unwinds, the flood into Treasuries won’t save anyone the way the textbook says it should. Then we watched Japan demonstrate in real time what happens when you don’t have the exorbitant privilege of issuing the world’s reserve currency. A 40-year low for the yen, Japan spending $87 billion in two days trying to hold it together, and the U.S. quietly intervening not out of friendship, but because Japan’s dumping Treasuries would torch our bond market at the worst possible moment. Chapters Intro: 00:00:38 Quick Takes: 00:01:33 Max Notes: 00:07:34 Killer Left Take of the Week: 00:24:44 Chart of the Week: 00:27:02 Headlines: 00:30:56 Outro: 00:32:23 Resources Fox News: Carville vows to FLEE Dem Party over Hasan Piker: ‘Out of here’ Forbes Breaking News: Trump Gives Update On Talks With Iran Forbes Breaking News: Sparks Fly When RFK Jr. Is Pressed On Vaccines, Pandemic Prevention During CNN Interview NBC News: Trump: Jeanine Pirro ‘made a mistake’ dropping Reflecting Pool vandalism case The Thomas Crown Affair CNBC: AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses, sources say Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Household Debt and Credit Report (Q1 2026) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 FiscalData: What is the national debt? SIFMA: US Treasury Securities Statistics Fortune: U.S. national debt officially hits $39 trillion—adding approximately $5 billion a day since October Nippon: Japan Govt Worsens Debt-to-GDP Ratio Estimate for FY 2026 Financial Stability Board: Report on Vulnerabilities in Private Credit Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System: Implementation Note issued June 17, 2026 U.S. Department of the Treasury: Daily Treasury Rates TFTC: Treasury Sells $139B in Polar-Opposite Auctions: 2Y Soars, 5Y Craters MS Now: ‘Don’t be surprised when this gets kind of ugly’: El-Sayed on hotly contested MI Senate primary Bloomberg Television: Trump Revives Hopes for Iran Deal, Oil Sinks | Insight with Haslinda Amin 8/03/2026 Bloomberg: Why Japan Is Propping Up the Yen With US Help Bloomberg: BOJ Data Point to $34 Billion Japan FX Intervention Friday MacroMicro: World - Major Economies’ Holdings of US Debt The Japan Times: Yen carry trade is a ‘ticking time bomb,’ warns BCA research Forever Wars: The Markets Matter For War—You Don’t The American Prospect: The AI Bailout Could Be Baked Into the AI Bubble Jacobin: Centrist Democrats Keep Making Awful Health Reform Proposals UNFTR Resources Video: On The Record 08-04-26 (The Yen Bailout, RFK Jr. Fail, and the $72 Trillion Debt.) Essay: The $72 Trillion Debt Problem. Video: Situational Awareness: How a 25-Year-Old’s Hedge Fund Exposed the Entire AI Bubble. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibilitySupport the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On August 4, Brian Szytel recaps a massive cross-asset rally as markets price hopes of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz: oil fell 6% to $75, the 10-year yield dropped 7 bps to 4.61%, and stocks and bonds rose (Dow +907, S&P +1.8%, Nasdaq +2.6% led by semis/AI). He notes the market has become desensitized to Middle East risk and remains skewed upward with major indexes up 12.5%–14% YTD, but highlights unusually violent, bifurcated single-stock moves around earnings as investors struggle to discount AI impacts amid accounting and borrowing stresses. He warns leverage amplifies drawdowns, citing July deleveraging and a 4:1-levered AI hedge fund collapsing after a 67% drawdown. Economic data: job openings 7.3M (in line/slightly low), factory orders -0.3% vs +0.3% expected, trade deficit $73.3B. He answers a viewer question on inflation, explaining the Fed can influence money supply via its balance sheet but can't directly control velocity, relying on multiple tools including interest on reserves, and references efforts to shift narratives back toward market-set pricing. 00:00 Market Rally Recap 00:16 Oil Rates And Geopolitics 01:50 Year To Date Performance 02:10 Wild Stock Reactions 02:56 AI Accounting And Volatility 03:33 Leverage And Hedge Funds 04:41 Economic Data Check 05:26 Fed Money Supply Question 05:57 How The Fed Tools Work 07:47 Wrap Up And Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Will the Federal Reserve provide less guidance on interest rates going forward? On today's Squawk on the Street, we examine what a shift in Fed communication could mean for markets with Mohamed El-Erian. Plus, Caterpillar and Palantir rally after their latest results. What Palantir CEO Alex Karp told CNBC. And we look ahead to SpaceX's first earnings report as a public company, with one analyst who says the stock is a buy. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
In this week's Market Signals podcast, Chief Economist Dr. Jeffrey Roach is joined by Chief Market Strategist Chris Fasciano from Commonwealth Financial Network to discuss stronger-than-expected economic growth, rising Treasury yields, inflation pressures, and what could drive the Fed's next move. Tracking: #1153819
MRKT Matrix - Tuesday, August 4th Dow leaps 1,000 points fueled by earnings, hopes for Hormuz Strait deal; S&P 500 hits record (CNBC) Nasdaq advancing volume reaches nearly 80% and NYSE almost 70% Tuesday (CNBC) The AI Boom Is Transforming the American Economy Beyond Recognition (WSJ) Blackstone Has Pitched Mega Debt Package for Anthropic Chip Deal (Bloomberg) Anthropic Inks $10 Billion Computing Deal With Cloud Startup (Bloomberg) China's AI Blitz Creates ‘Death Zone' for Rival US Model Makers (Bloomberg) Why Bessent Is Leaning on the Fed to Help Prop Up Japan's Currency (WSJ) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: http://riskreversal.substack.com/ MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs
Legal Docket follows a lifeguard captain's case testing the Supreme Court's stronger standard for religious accommodation; on Moneybeat, David Bahnsen explains the case for less Fed and more market; and the WORLD History Book returns to Louis Armstrong's New Orleans—plus the Monday morning news.Support The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donate.Additional support comes from Ambassadors Impact Network, which provides education on investing in private companies from a biblical perspective, plus access to thoroughly vetted deal flow. Members participate in shared diligence and choose individual investments aligned with their convictions. Download AIN's free Spiritual Impact Report to see how portfolio companies integrate faith into operations at ambassadorsimpact.com/reportsFrom Dordt University, host of At Work in the Garden: The Faith and Work Conference, September 17-19. Dordt.edu/gardenAnd from World Watch, a 10-minute daily news program that explores current events for students 5-12th grade. This high-energy show connects learners to the present, history and communities around the world. Join 40,000 Christian families that utilize World Watch as a tool to foster curiosity and have conversations about today's news as a discipleship rhythm within their families. “Whatever the news, the purpose of the Lord will stand!” First time? Take advantage of a 30-days free trial at worldwatch.news/podcast Not ready to sign up? Check out a free episode at https://get.worldwatch.news/free-episode
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why investors should favor quality as the market moves from early-cycle momentum to more disciplined, mid-cycle leadership.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the ongoing transition in the economic recovery from early to mid-cycle.It's Monday, August 3rd at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So, let's get after it.Following on from my podcasts the past few weeks, I want to reiterate our key call that the economy and the market are moving from early to mid-cycle. That may sound like strategist jargon, but it has very real implications for leadership, positioning, and how one should think about the next phase of this bull market.For much of the past year, the market was rewarding early-cycle characteristics and behavior. Lower-quality, higher beta stocks, and the most explosive earnings revision stories led the way. That made sense. We were coming out of a rolling recession, operating leverage was improving rapidly, and earnings revisions were accelerating off of depressed levels. But as the business cycle matures, the market typically becomes more discerning. It starts to ask a harder question: not just who can grow, but who can sustain that growth with stable earnings, strong margins, and free cash flow generation.In other words, quality starts to matter again.That's exactly where we are now. The rotation towards quality has begun, and I don't view that as a bearish development for the broader market even if it's bad for some of the former leaders. The S&P 500 is a very high-quality, large cap index. So, while the market may continue to consolidate in the near term, the quality rotation should ultimately support index resilience and help the S&P 500 work its way toward our 8000 year-end target.The big market event last week was the capitulation in the historic momentum unwind. Momentum sold off hard, and semiconductors were at the center of it. That shouldn't surprise anyone who has followed our work over the past several months. We've been using the Silver stock analog to think about semis, and remarkably, the semi index bottomed almost exactly where that analog suggested.That argues for a tradable bounce in semiconductors over the next few weeks. However, the more important point is that semis may struggle to reclaim leadership for the rest of the year. Semis are a classic early-cycle group, and this is increasingly becoming a mid-cycle, quality-led market. The Silver stock analog would support the same conclusion.The provocative way to say it is this: the AI cycle is not over, but the easy money in the most crowded AI beneficiaries may be. The AI investment cycle still has plenty of runway, but the market is no longer rewarding capex blindly. It's asking for evidence of return on invested capital, adoption, monetization, and operational discipline. Last week's performance gap between Microsoft and Meta was a perfect example. It wasn't random. It was about capex discipline. The market is rewarding more prudent spending, and that could translate into a real overhang for the capex beneficiaries, in line with my views for the past several months.That is why I still prefer hyperscalers over semis, with one important caveat: dispersion within the hyperscalers is rising. The group has already outperformed semis by 30% over the past four weeks, and I think it can continue over the next several months. Hyperscalers have resilient core businesses, exposure to the AI application layer, and an underappreciated ability to use AI to reduce operating expenses if needed. They're both enablers and adopters. But the market will no longer treat them all the same. The winners will be the companies that can show return on investment, communicate capex discipline, and preserve earnings quality.This is also why AI adoption is becoming so important. The next leg of the story is not just about who builds the infrastructure. It's about who can use it more effectively. Our work shows that companies where AI is material to the investment thesis and pricing power is neutral to strong, are already seeing margin expectations improve. Relative net margins for that group have expanded by 50 basis points in just three months, and they now sit nearly 400 basis points above the broader market. That's not hype. That's operating leverage with a new engine.The Fed is the other major piece of the puzzle. Chair Warsh stayed on hold last week, but he remains tight-lipped about his reaction function. Markets are still adjusting to a Fed that wants to rely less on forward guidance and more on unfiltered market signals. I think that's a healthy development over the longer term, but transitions are rarely smooth. The biggest risk to this consolidation turning into a correction is if the 10-year yields rise above 5%. Such a rise could weigh on equity multiples and force the Fed to either revert to its old ways of guiding the markets or provide more liquidity to calm rate markets.Bottom line, the bull market is not over, but it is changing. As we move from early to mid-cycle in this recovery, the equity market wants higher quality. Semis may bounce, but they are unlikely to be the leader again. Meanwhile, hyperscalers will likely continue to trade better, with the best ones exhibiting more capital discipline. More importantly, AI adoption is moving from promise to measurable margin benefit. This is what mid-cycle looks like: less forgiving, more discerning, but still constructive for investors who follow the rotation rather than fight it.Thanks for tuning in, I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yUosr7 David Bahnsen reviews a “bizarre” July in which long-term yields rose, the Iran ceasefire/MOU collapsed, semiconductors fell sharply, and the yen hit multi-decade lows—yet the S&P 500 finished flat with improved breadth—and notes a strong early-August rally led by mega-cap tech while oil fell and energy dipped. He highlights massive hyperscaler capital expenditures and the key market questions around ROI, timing, financing, and systemic exposure. Bahnsen discusses shifting Iran headlines, policy items including the Todd Blanche AG nomination, the low odds of the Save Act and another reconciliation bill, Michigan's Senate primary dynamics, and a multi-state lawsuit over Section 301 tariff rationale. He covers Q2 real GDP at 1.5%, stronger July ISM manufacturing, elevated mortgage rates, Fed chair Warsh and balance-sheet effects, Treasury's reported yen buying, and midstream/MLP performance. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 July Market Recap 02:22 Monday Rally Snapshot 03:04 Big Tech Capex Questions 05:03 Iran Headlines and Oil 05:39 Washington Policy Update 07:50 GDP and ISM Readouts 09:01 Rates and Housing Impact 09:49 Fed Chair and Yen Move 12:45 Energy and Midstream Returns 13:10 Wrap Up and Next Episode 13:39 Disclosures and Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Barry Eichengreen is a is well known author, economist, and economic historian from the University of California, Berkeley. Paul Blustein is a former Washington Post and Wall Street Journal journalist who has authored several acclaimed books on global economic institutions. Brendan Greeley is a veteran journalist from the Financial Times and current PhD student at Princeton studying monetary history. They all return to the show for a special roundtable discussion where they discuss the history of dominant currencies, whether we will always end up with a single reserve currency, whether monetary sovereignty is earned or given, the question of exorbitant privilege, what there is to do about a second China Shock, the future of dollars in the digital age, and much more. Watch the full length video on our new YouTube Channel! Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on May 11th, 2026 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Barry Eichengreen on X: @B_Eichengreen Follow Paul Blustein on X: @PaulBlustein Follow Brendan Greeley on X: @BHGreeley Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:02:01 - On Each Author's Book 00:11:12 - Globally Dominant Currencies 00:25:37 - Single Reserve Currency 00:28:34 - Fed's Control Over Global Dollar System 00:38:39 - Exorbitant Privilege 00:46:30 - China Shock 2.0 00:49:23 - Future of the Global Dollar System 00:58:16 - Outro
In this week's stock market outlook, Matt breaks down the technical battle facing the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, reviews the biggest winners and losers of earnings season, and grades Kevin Warsh's performance as Federal Reserve Chair following the latest Fed meeting. The bulls reclaimed an important trend line, but the broader trend still needs confirmation. Matt identifies the resistance levels required for a legitimate breakout, the support zones traders must defend, and the signals coming from RSI and MACD heading into the new trading week. Earnings growth has been exceptional, but the market has not rewarded every company that beat expectations. Matt reviews the best and worst reports of the season, separates true operating strength from headline distortions, and explains what the results mean for technology and the broader market. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady following a contentious meeting. Matt breaks down the decision, the dissents, Kevin Warsh's communication strategy, and whether the new Fed Chair has earned a passing grade so far. • The S&P 500 breakout test and key market levels • Earnings season growth, market reactions, and major surprises • The strongest and weakest earnings reports • The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision • Kevin Warsh's first report card as Fed Chair • Precision Trader and the upcoming Master Trader series
On the first trading day of August, David Faber and Jim Cramer explored several developments of importance to the markets; The U.S.-Japan joint intervention to prop up a yen trading at 40-year lows; Stocks jump as oil prices tumble on hopes for a diplomatic solution to the U.S.-Iran conflict; AstraZeneca reportedly in merger talks with Bristol Myers Squibb to create a nearly $400 billion pharmaceutical giant. Also in focus: Starbucks gets upgraded, SpaceX hits new lows ahead of its Tuesday earnings report, Alibaba's AI bounce, a look at whether July's biggest stock losers can rebound in August, the Dow aims for a five-month win streak, the 19th anniversary of Cramer's "They know nothing!!" Fed rant. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Bill Barhydt, Founder/CEO Abra, joined me to discuss the current state of the crypto market and what needs to happen for the market before the next major bull run. Recorded July 10th.Topics: - Crypto bear market and when the bottom might be in - Tokenization and markets going 24/7 - Clarity Act outlook - AI 's impact on the economy and life- Future of Prediction markets
Is the economy headed towards a recessionary cliff as inflation and dwindling economic confidence pull against productivity gains and capex spending? Mark Zandi, Chief Economist of Moody's Analytics shows us the possible pathways for the economy and households, and what to brace for. Plus, the Fed did nothing and said even less, driving long bond yields to multi-year highs and causing investors to wonder if the Fed Chair Warsh's task forces are really here to help. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In this deeply moving episode of Fed by the Fruit, host KB sits down with Jamie and Reina Bryce, a couple who faced every parent's worst nightmare with the loss of their two young sons, William and Zachariah, in a devastating house fire. With raw honesty and unshakable faith, they share how God met them in their darkest valley: the outpouring of love from their church and community, a peace that surpassed all understanding in the hospital, the powerful legacy of their six-year-old found shielding his little brother, and the gift of organ donation that gave life to others. They also reflect on the redemptive joy of welcoming their daughter, Hannah Joy, and the hope that continues to carry them forward. It's a heartbreaking yet profoundly encouraging testimony of God's presence, purpose, and peace in the midst of unimaginable grief.Reach out to KB on Instagram and share your thoughts.
The housing market is flashing warning signs not seen since 2008, and Wall Street veteran Todd "Bubba" Horwitz is sounding the alarm. With 45+ years of experience as an original S&P pit trader, Bubba joins Daniela to deliver a blunt reality check on the economy, the Fed, and where smart money is moving right now.
On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about who the market is paying attention to at the Fed, and what that means for mortgage rates. Related to this episode: Fed hawks are on the war path, sending mortgage rates higher HousingWire | YouTube HousingWire AI Summit – August 11 HousingWire Mortgage Banking Summit – October 1 More info about HousingWire The Top 5: Fed hawks are on the war path, sending mortgage rates higher Chris Gallo enters guilty plea in federal mortgage fraud case How Compass used technology to chart its course to the top ICE posts strongest quarter for mortgage tech since 2022 NEXA's Mike Kortas criticizes loanDepot, pitches LOs to switch companies amid ongoing lawsuit Want more from Sarah? Don't forget to subscribe! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate.
AI's leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates. This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection. We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh's long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration's market choreography. Enjoy! TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 Intro 01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation 04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom 07:51 Price Drives The Narrative 12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh? 21:08 Why The Long End Matters 25:42 Warsh's Communication Problem 29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole? 33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection 38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics 45:46 August Slowdown Risks FOLLOW THE SHOW › Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance › Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc › Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp › Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx › Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks RESOURCES › Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link EVENTS › Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th https://blockworks.com/events DISCLAIMER Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
Non-QM lenders see opportunity in stricter condominium underwriting standards introduced by the FHFA, while broader markets continue to underscore the premium value of timely information, highlighted by reports of potential changes to the Fed's meeting schedule and the launch of a subscription service offering paying clients early access to market-moving Truth Social posts. Plus, Robbie interviews Aon's John Dickson on the evolution of disaster modeling and how it is impacting the mortgage industry from origination through the capital markets. And we close by examining Treasury and MBS market stability in the wake of last week's Federal Reserve meeting.Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.Thank you to Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology.
Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, said that while AI and the Fed may be issues more at the forefront of the economic conversation, risk from the Iran war and its subsequent impact on fuel stores remains an important factor in the background. Slok also commented the possibility that the Fed may have fewer meetings, saying that market will still try to price the Fed regardless of the schedule.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn says, “the market became addicted to knowing what the Fed was going to do” as he discusses market reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s handling of the US central bank. Cohn also discusses Japan and the US Treasury Department working together to shore up the yen and the instabilities being dealt with by markets. He talks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
From a massive balance sheet to the way the Fed communicates, Fed Chair's Kevin Warsh's new task forces will take a comprehensive look at U.S. monetary policy. Macroeconomist Joe Santos weighs in on the complicated work of reform now before the Fed.
Two Quants and a Financial Planner | Bridging the Worlds of Investing and Financial Planning
On this episode of the Excess Returns Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler examine how the AI capital spending boom, an unpredictable Federal Reserve, reduced corporate reporting and factor investing are reshaping markets.They break down Ben Hunt's warning about private credit and AI infrastructure, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig on the loss of Fed forward guidance, Wes Gray on why value may matter more than company size, and Rupert Mitchell on the rate hike that could end the cycle.Topics covered:Why the AI capital spending boom is forcing hyperscalers to borrow money and issue equityHow private credit and private equity are financing the AI infrastructure buildoutWhy a slowdown in AI CapEx could create broader financial system riskHow government borrowing and AI investment are crowding out capital and pushing interest rates higherThe impact of data center electricity demand on consumers and the broader economyHow Kevin Warsh's no-forward-guidance policy changes Federal Reserve expectationsWhy greater front-end interest rate volatility matters for floating-rate debt and private creditThe debate over replacing quarterly corporate reports with six-month reportingWes Gray's argument that value, not small-company size, is the real source of higher expected returnsRupert Mitchell's death shot framework for how a final central bank rate hike can end a market cycleTimestamps:00:00 AI spending, Fed uncertainty and this week's market themes05:07 How the AI buildout crowds out capital across the economy10:44 No Fed forward guidance and a new era of policy uncertainty15:48 Why six-month corporate reporting could hurt investors20:30 Wes Gray on the small-cap premium24:42 Why value matters more than company size28:57 How a surprise rate hike could break risk assets34:05 Global value investing and pairing different investor perspectivesLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
In this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by The Greenberg Financial Group, we unpack one of the strangest weeks the market has handed us in a while. The Dow dropped 1,000 points on Wednesday and took it all back over the next two days, and if you only checked your account on Friday you would think nothing happened at all. The Fed got the blame in the headlines, but the real story was a 25 year old former OpenAI employee whose hedge fund was up roughly 1,500% in two years, ran four times leverage into the memory and data center trade, and got picked apart by other funds once his book became visible. A $40 billion valuation became an $8 billion sale to Citadel. We walk through how forced selling moves an entire market, and why the lesson is not about being right but about staying solvent long enough to find out. Dean opens the show on volatility and why selling into weakness leaves you with the hardest question in investing, which is when you plan to get back in. He also lays out something that separates how we work from most firms. We do not plan for your retirement. We plan for your lifestyle changes, whether that means a $40,000 family vacation every year, a remodel, more travel, or simply never stopping work at all. He walks through what that planning actually covers, from Social Security timing to Medicare costs to how much you can spend each year without running out, and why we hand you the completed plan for free whether or not you ever do business with us. We also get into the capital expenditure fear that has dominated the tape. Meta's free cash flow collapsed and the stock got clobbered 10% despite revenue up 28%. Google went negative on free cash flow for the first time in its history. Then Amazon reported and its CEO talked openly about the profitability of data centers, and suddenly Google popped 7% on Friday. Every hyperscaler CEO is saying go, and investors keep saying stop, which means somebody is wrong. We look at Apple's 9% drop on a memory shortage that is now showing up in laptop and iPad prices, Microsoft's 24.6% month, the buyback restriction lifting at the end of 2026, and why the 30 year Treasury at a 19 year high and mortgage rates at 6.66% may matter more to this market than any earnings report. The second hour takes a different turn. Dean brings in attorney Mike Story, who represents Tucson police officers through their unions and responded at 2:30 in the morning to the mass shooting outside Empire Pizza in downtown Tucson. Mike walks through what actually happened that night, why a single shot from a seven year veteran ended the threat without endangering the crowd behind the gunman, and the question that officer asked him first. Am I going to prison for this. We talk about the shooter's prior gun offense, how that case was handled, what a 30% smaller police force means for a downtown everybody says they want to save, and what it would take to bring it back. We close with SpaceX heading into its first earnings report and the insider lockup expiring days later with 35% of the float sold short, energy leading all S&P sectors with XLE up 35% on the year, an options based income strategy that Todd and Dylan have been researching directly with the portfolio managers for its 60/40 tax treatment, and why Trump accounts may be the most powerful generational wealth tool available to a grandparent right now. Plus a Tucson fun fact about how the University of Arizona ended up here in 1885 because our representative showed up late. Our next free interactive financial planning seminar is Friday, August 21st from 11:30 to 2:00 at La Paloma Country Club. Lunch is included and you will see our full financial planning process start to finish. Register at www.GreenbergFinancial.com under the resource tab. If you have been thinking about taking us up on the free financial plan, this is the kind of clarity it brings. If you would like to contact us to learn more about our firm, our seminars, and our process - call us at 520.544.4909 or go to our website at www.Greenbergfinancial.com or email us at Contact@Greenbergfinancial.com Disclaimer: This show discusses different investment products and strategies. Every product and strategy has some type of inherent risk and we strongly encourage our listeners to properly understand these risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. The material covered on this program does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is for general information purposes only. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Greenberg Financial Group is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements.
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Suze Orman's Women & Money (And Everyone Smart Enough To Listen)
On this Suze School, Suze goes over everything that happened in the economy in the last week. She reviews how the market responded to the Fed's rate announcement and why you should not have FOMO about some recent IPOs. Learn more about the Ultimate Scam Protection here: SuzeOrman.com Watch Suze’s YouTube Channel Jumpstart financial wellness for your employees: https://bit.ly/SecureSave Protect your financial future with the Must Have Docs: https://bit.ly/3Vq1V3G Help with the Must Have Docs: Email:support@musthavedocuments.zendesk.com Phone: 888-510-0510 Get your savings going with Alliant Credit Union: https://bit.ly/3rg0Yio Get Suze’s special offers for podcast listeners at suzeorman.com/offer Join Suze’s Women & Money Community for FREE and ASK SUZE your questions which may just end up on the podcast. Download the app by following one of these links: CLICK HERE FOR APPLE: https://apple.co/2KcAHbH CLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE PLAY: https://bit.ly/3curfMISee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Aug 3, 2026 – Missing a single deadline can trigger a 25% tax penalty, and most retirees do not realize how many ways an RMD can quietly reshape their finances. Brendan McMurtrie sits down with Ryan Puplava to break down required minimum distributions under SECURE Act 2.0...
On this episode of our new market wrap show Last Call, we examine the hidden rotation beneath calm stock market indexes, including sharp AI and semiconductor volatility, small-cap strength, forced fund liquidations, higher rates and changing Federal Reserve guidance. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler are joined by Jim Paulsen, Ben Hunt, Brent Kochuba, Cameron Dawson and Dave Nadig to discuss stock market correction risk, the economics of the AI data center buildout, options flows, market leverage, regulation and what could drive volatility next.Follow Last Call on SpotifyFollow Last Call on Apple PodcastsTopics coveredWhy market indexes can hide sharp rotation, dispersion and volatility in semiconductors and high-beta technology stocksJim Paulsen's Policy Pain framework linking oil, Treasury yields, dollar strength and lagged effects on stocks, bonds and economic growthWhy technology stocks could enter a bear market while old-economy sectors, small caps and value stocks hold upBen Hunt's World War AI thesis comparing the AI infrastructure buildout with inflation-adjusted World War II spendingHow hyperscalers, equity issuance, private credit and government financing could crowd out consumers and businessesWhy data centers could consume nearly one quarter of U.S. electricity and lead to higher prices, rationing and government interventionWhat the Situational Awareness fund liquidation and Citadel portfolio transaction reveal about forced market flowsHow options correlations and narrow market breadth can separate a technical rebound from a fundamental AI bottomRisks from speculative retail investments, weakened regulators, leverage and cyclical semiconductor profit marginsWhy reduced Fed forward guidance could create surprise policy decisions and greater algorithmic market volatilityTimestamps00:00 Market rotation and AI volatility beneath the indexes04:07 Jim Paulsen on Policy Pain and market vulnerability09:23 Why tightening hurts stocks before helping bonds14:23 Tech bear market risk and a possible leadership shift18:23 Ben Hunt on World War AI, private credit and systemic risk26:00 Data center electricity demand and the energy constraint31:29 Brent Kochuba on the Situational Awareness liquidation36:00 The forced buying behind the AI stock rebound40:00 Why the liquidation bounce may not signal an AI bottom44:00 How forced flows distort fundamental market narratives48:00 Retail investing pitches, liquidity and cycle FOMO52:00 Deregulation by destaffing at the SEC and CFTC56:00 Semiconductor operating leverage and fragile S&P 500 margins01:00:07 Jack's grievance with the YouTube algorithm01:04:29 What happens when the Fed stops giving forward guidance01:08:34 How markets could react to a surprise Fed decisionLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.
In this episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, co-host Telis Demos is joined by guest co-host and Wall Street Journal reporter David Uberti to break down the Federal Reserve's latest moves, and what oil's volatile pricing—exacerbated by the U.S.-Iran conflict—might mean for inflation and the Fed going forward. Then, BCA Research's chief commodities strategist Roukaya Ibrahim joins the show to break down what's behind oil's volatile pricing. They discuss what current geopolitical tensions mean for oil and whether recent inventory data suggests a looming supply crunch. Plus, Ibrahim explains why the traditional link between gold and inflation has fractured, and how oil price shocks may impact the Fed. This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, writer for WSJ's Heard on the Street, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ's investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading Kevin Warsh Asked the Market to Speak. It Answered. Two Wars Put Stranglehold on Global Energy Supplies U.S. Emergency Oil Reserve Hits Lowest Levels Since 1983: Why It Matters For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Follow Miriam Gottfried here and Telis Demos here. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
On this week's Defense & Aerospace Report Business Roundtable, sponsored by Bell, Dr. “Rocket” Ron Epstein of Bank of America Securities, Sash Tusa of Agency Partners, and Richard Aboulafia of the AeroDynamic advisory consultancy join host Vago Muradian to discuss an up week on Wall Street and rising energy prices in the wake of wider conflict in the Middle East; higher Treasury yields in the wake of Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's communication stumble on explaining Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady; President Trump call to suspend further Iran strikes pending a quick deal to end the war; despite an uncertain budget future, the Pentagon awarded Lockheed Martin a $58 billion contract for PAC 3 missiles that will also flow to companies like RTX and General Dynamics and HII $76.6 billion in contracts for nine Virginia-class attack subs and four Columbia-class ballistic missile subs; Washington and Tokyo worked together to prop up the yen, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asking the New York Federal Reserve Bank to sell euros to buy yen; Britain's Burnham government will release its budget on Oct. 28 that will include a $32 billion buffer as British bond yields near their post-2008 high after Washington and Jerusalem started their war on Iran; EasyJet says it's got a 5.7 billion pound or $7.7 billion offer from Apollo Global Management; and Airbus, AerCap, Boeing, Bombardier, General Dynamics, Hexcel, HII, Leonardo and Leonardo DRS, Melrose, Safran, and Textron report earnings.
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the Leopold Aschenbrenner hedge fund unwind, the market crashes in South Korea and Japan, Kevin Warsh and the Fed's next move, and the case for compute scarcity as AI demand outpaces supply. We also discuss tokenization and why bitcoin remains the ultimate hedge and store of value in a world being reshaped by AI.======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ======================Figure's $160k Community Appreciation (https://www.figure.com/crypto-community-appreciation/T&Cs (https://www.figure.com/crypto-community-appreciation/disclosures/) Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~8.5% APY on real world assets.Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at http://figure.com/disclosures/======================0:00 - Intro0:48 - Leopold's fund unwind & lessons from past blowups 9:21 - Hedge fund leverage & how AI is reshaping market structure11:45 - Korea & Japan's market collapse13:56 - AI will destroy all public companies?15:20 - The bull case for hyperscalers & compute scarcity27:44 - Why bitcoin is the best hedge fund ever29:12 - Kevin Warsh & the Fed33:48 - Does this help Wall Street or Main Street?36:47- Advice for a 25-year-old starting their career today41:18 - Bitcoin & the rest of crypto industry48:52 - Migration, digital money & the breakdown of borders57:56 - What Jordi is covering in his next video
In this episode of The Canadian Macro Investor Podcast, Simon and Dan break down the latest Fed decision and why the bond market may be starting to challenge Kevin Warsh’s inflation message. They discuss the split reaction across the yield curve, with short-term yields moving differently than longer-term yields, and what that could mean for inflation, recession risk and future rate hikes. They also look at Canada’s population data problem and why undercounting temporary residents could distort unemployment, mortgage delinquency trends and the broader read on the Canadian economy. From there, they dig into big tech earnings, including Microsoft and Meta, and why investors are paying closer attention to AI capex, free cash flow, depreciation, and credit default swaps across the hyperscalers. They also discuss Anthropic, open-weight AI models, data privacy concerns, tariffs, copper demand, and what the AI infrastructure build-out could mean for energy and markets. Tickers discussed: MSFT, META, GOOG, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, ORCL, AAPL, SKM Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Amazon's autonomous vehicle company, Zoox, can now roll out 2,500 of its vehicles annually in the next two years. Are more robotic cars coming, or will there be more speed bumps? But first, we'll look at the market impact of the Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady in our Weekly Wrap. Plus, the effect of rising health insurance costs for employers, a retiree returning to the workforce for a family business, and a look at how Boulder, Colorado is making room for the Sundance Film Festival.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Weekly Wrap: Kevin Warsh's dilemma on interest ratesRising health insurance costs may take a bite out of your paycheckLeaving retirement for a new family businessAmazon's self-driving Zoox taxis are about to hit the roadsWhen a legendary film festival comes to Colorado, will homeowners open their doors?
The conversation focused on a rapidly changing and turbulent global landscape, with a particular emphasis on recent events in Spain following controversial immigration policies and a dramatic influx of migrants. The discussion explored escalating tensions in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia's direct engagement with the Houthis in Yemen, and examined complex geopolitical conspiracies surrounding these developments.A key theme that emerged was the destabilization of regions through demographic shifts, clashes of culture, and the potential influence of external actors like Israel and the US. The episode also delved into the state of the US economy, the Fed's latest moves, and global financial instability, as well as insights on the future of entertainment with EA going private.Several points were raised, including the enduring impact of religious extremism, the evolution of Western and Islamic societies, accountability in public health leadership, and the unintended consequences of government intervention in technology sectors. Throughout, the discussion emphasized the dangers of jumping to conclusions and the importance of critically assessing rapidly unfolding narratives in an era defined by uncertainty and change.Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodWhatnot: Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order.Monarch Money: Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity at https://monarchmoney.yt.link/QxOLEVx or code TB50 for 50% Off Monarch Core tier.ATT Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.comKetone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactSurfshark: Go to https://surfshark.com/bilyeu or use code BILYEU at checkout to get 4 extra months of Surfshark! ITU: Ready to break through your biggest business bottleneck? Apply to work with me 1:1 - https://impacttheory.co/SCALESign up for my AI Masterclass: https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=TBS-Livestream&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=socialSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Farnoosh recaps a webinar on navigating money conversations with loved ones, then dives into the week's financial news: the Fed holding rates steady, what Apple and Microsoft earnings mean for your index funds, and a landlord's "work from home fee." Then, she tackles two big listener questions: how to find and pay for a financial planner (flat fee vs. retainer vs. AUM, and what "fee-only" really means), and why a perfect credit score doesn't guarantee you the lowest mortgage rate. Learn more about Farnoosh's upcoming literary workshop Book to Brand. Early bird registration is now open! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Amazon's autonomous vehicle company, Zoox, can now roll out 2,500 of its vehicles annually in the next two years. Are more robotic cars coming, or will there be more speed bumps? But first, we'll look at the market impact of the Fed's decision to keep interest rates steady in our Weekly Wrap. Plus, the effect of rising health insurance costs for employers, a retiree returning to the workforce for a family business, and a look at how Boulder, Colorado is making room for the Sundance Film Festival.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Weekly Wrap: Kevin Warsh's dilemma on interest ratesRising health insurance costs may take a bite out of your paycheckLeaving retirement for a new family businessAmazon's self-driving Zoox taxis are about to hit the roadsWhen a legendary film festival comes to Colorado, will homeowners open their doors?
Discover the latest economic update. Second-quarter GDP grew at a slower-than-expected annual rate of 1.5%, but much of the weakness came from temporary factors like lower inventories and reduced government spending rather than a broad slowdown in the private economy. Consumer spending remained strong, inflation continued to ease on a monthly basis, and private-sector demand was robust. While the Federal Reserve is still waiting for inflation to move closer to its 2% target before cutting rates, the underlying economic picture remains healthier than the headline GDP number suggests. Key Takeaways GDP grew 1.5% in the second quarter, below expectations. Consumer spending accelerated to 2.1%, showing continued economic resilience. Final sales to private domestic purchasers rose a strong 3.9%, highlighting solid underlying demand. Core PCE inflation eased to 0.1% for the month but remains 3.3% year-over-year, above the Fed's target. The Fed is likely to remain patient on interest rates until inflation shows more sustained improvement. The personal savings rate fell to 2.7%, its lowest level in four years, suggesting consumers are relying more on savings to maintain spending. Are you on track for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest can make the biggest difference to your financial freedom and lifestyle. If you invested well for the long-term, what a difference it would make because the difference between investing $100k and earning 5 percent or 10 percent on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $432,194 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.3 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters! INVESTING IS WHAT THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE IS ALL ABOUT - Invest in digital assets and stock ETFs for potential high compounding rates - Receive an Asset Allocation model with ticker symbols and what % to invest -Monthly LIVE investment webinars with Linda 10 months per year, with Q & A -Private VIP Facebook group with daily community interaction -Weekly investment commentary -Extra educational wealth classes available -Pay once, have lifetime access! NO recurring membership fees. -US and foreign investors are welcome -No minimum $ amount to invest -Tech Team available for digital assets (for hire per hour) For a limited time, enjoy a 50% savings on my private investing group, the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Pay once and enjoy lifetime access without any additional recurring fees. Pay once and you're done! Invest with our successful community for years to come. Enter "SAVE50" to save 50% here: http://tinyurl.com/InvestingVIP Or set up a complimentary conversation to answer your questions about the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Request an appointment to talk with Linda here: https://tinyurl.com/TalkWithLinda (yes, you talk to Linda!). SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed LINDA'S WEALTH BOOKS 1. Get my book, "3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies". 2. Get my book, "You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!" Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning. SPECIAL DEALS #Ad Apply for a Gemini credit card and get FREE XRP back (or any crypto you choose) when you use the card. Charge $3000 in first 90 days and earn $200 in crypto rewards when you use this link to apply and are approved: https://tinyurl.com/geminixrp This is a credit card, NOT a debit card. There are great rewards. Set your choice to EARN FREE XRP! #Ad Protect yourself online with a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Get 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for a NORD VPN plan here. #Ad To safely and securely store crypto, I recommend using a Tangem wallet. Get a 10% discount when you purchase here. #Ad If you are looking to simplify your crypto tax reporting, use Koinly. It is highly recommended and so easy for tax reporting. You can save $20, click here. Be Wealthy & Smart,™ is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor.™ Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom. (This post contains affiliate links. If you click on a link and make a purchase, I may receive a commission. There is no additional cost to you.)
Since 2020, the cost of groceries has risen 26%. But contrary to what you might think, cash-strapped consumers aren't necessarily staying away from pricier options. In this episode, why Americans are doubling down on organic — even as the cost of their overall grocery haul rises. Plus: Why more customers are choosing chargebacks, what economists predict about inflation two years from now, and how a Maine nonprofit is bringing lobstering to the next generation.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:The Fed doesn't have an inflation crystal ball, but it does have "sticky-price CPI"In spite of price hike fatigue, consumers are still snapping up organic foodsCredit card chargebacks are on the rise — part of the reason is fraudMultiple wars drive up the price of diesel"Never would have expected to be here": Young Mainers consider the lobster
The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmTonight's episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.Chapters:00:00 Debt Bubble Reality00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold31:45 Yields and Gold Misread35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case37:40 Fed Fallout and Data43:12 NYC Government Grocers55:42 Capitalism and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy