Podcasts about Fed

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe people of the UK now see that the generosity of welfare makes it that people do not support themselves. The Fed is right on schedule, they are using the shutdown and lack of data to create the narrative of no rate cut in Dec. GDP is now off the charts. Trump says the Fed does nothing, translation we do not need it. The economy is about to shift. Trump played the D's, they tried to set him up using the Epstein files, the tried to divide the movement, it backfired. Trump needed the D's to push the files narrative, optics are important so he could start the real investigation, most likely the document will implicate the D's on some level but not what people expect. The D's are now planning the color revolution, they are telling the military to disobey the Commander in Chief, remember your oath. Trump has the leverage, this leads to panic.   Economy https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1991138641087955359?s=20 https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1991200888480797001?s=20   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Stephen Miller Reveals Shocking Statistic- 40% of Rent-Controlled Housing in NYC Occupied is By Foreign Born Population (Video) White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller   shared a shocking statistic regarding rent-controlled housing in New York City. Miller shared, “40% of the population of rent-controlled housing in New York City are foreign-born.” “Think about that.” “In one of the largest Metropolitan areas in the world, 40% of rent-controlled properties are being lived in by people who weren't even born in the country. What kind of system is this?” “We bring in people from foreign countries, and then we pay to lower the cost of their housing while people who were born have to pay higher prices?” “So President Trump is reducing net migration, that is what's going to ultimately, along with all these other steps, deregulation, historic tax cuts, is going to bring down the cost of housing.” Watch: Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1991166902354268474?s=20  advanced chips for AI here in the US. All of this started with President Trump wanting to re-industrialize the US. His tariffs were a pressing agent in making this possible." 3. “We are manufacturing in America because of President Trump.” Nvidia reports earnings in less than 6 hours. https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1991141379838255220?s=20 https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1991168211942019257?s=20 https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1991163760195567968?s=20 https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1991195608615367120?s=20 TAKE A LISTEN https://twitter.com/SecScottBessent/status/1991179870907379944?s=20 returning to the United States in record amounts. Political/Rights https://twitter.com/joma_gc/status/1990866006714266065?s=20  always move the goalpost by making up unsubstantiated nonsense. Protecting their grift is their top priority. Plaskett Delivers Jaw-Dropping Explanation of Why She Texted Jeffrey Epstein During Congressional Hearing Democrat Del. Stacey Plaskett (VI-At Large) continued her whirlwind public tour in which she's tried to convince anyone who will listen that texting sex predator Jeffrey Epstein during a congressional hearing is totally normal. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1990901876276027581?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1990901876276027581%7Ctwgr%5Eac2f6a2c78cd6d4359fa04dfc99c2d4a4b998c16%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2025%2F11%2F19%2Fplaskett-delivers-jaw-dropping-explanation-of-why-she-texted-jeffrey-epstein-during-congressional-hearing-n2196340 First, it's not exactly common for members of Congress to wantonly text with constituents mid-hearing. Second, referring to Epstein as little more than a "constituent" is like referring to Bill Cosby as just a "Pudding Pop salesman" while neglecting his other obvious history. https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1991175194908782619?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1991175194908782619%7Ctwgr%5Eac2f6a2c78cd6d4359fa04dfc99c2d4a4b998c16%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2025%2F11%2F19%2Fplaskett-delivers-jaw-dropping-explanation-of-why-she-texted-jeffrey-epstein-during-congressional-hearing-n2196340 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1991167379791917155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1991167379791917155%7Ctwgr%5Eac2f6a2c78cd6d4359fa04dfc99c2d4a4b998c16%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2025%2F11%2F19%2Fplaskett-delivers-jaw-dropping-explanation-of-why-she-texted-jeffrey-epstein-during-congressional-hearing-n2196340 Source: redstate.com https://twitter.com/RealSLokhova/status/1990992088872190189?s=20   of impeaching the President. Vote to Censure Democrat Stacey Plaskett over Epstein Relationship Fails The vote to censure Virgin Islands delegate Stacey Plaskett (D) for her relationship with sex criminal Jeffrey Epstein failed in the House on Tuesday night, with three Republicans siding with Democrats.   https://twitter.com/RepLuna/status/1991138953211097540?s=20   Source: breitbart.com Rep. Jasmine Crockett's Effort to Smear Republicans Over Epstein Donations Blows Up in Her Face When Conservative Journalist Unearths the Damning Truth (VIDEO) Crockett took to the House floor and accused the GOP of a double standard by asserting without evidence that the likes of Mitt Romney, Lee Zeldin, John McCain, and George W. Bush had once taken money from Epstein. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1990889556774903965?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1990889556774903965%7Ctwgr%5Efa2c16edf43fdb59f07185608efa8c11f7864c0d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Frep-jasmine-crocketts-effort-smear-republicans-epstein-donations%2F   https://twitter.com/LeeMZeldin/status/1990993148244312175?s=20 https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1990996259721588838?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1990996259721588838%7Ctwgr%5Efa2c16edf43fdb59f07185608efa8c11f7864c0d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Frep-jasmine-crocketts-effort-smear-republicans-epstein-donations%2F   Here's a better look:   Jeffrey Epsteins middle initial is E for Edward Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1991142109324185937?s=20 https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1991183118502686819?s=20   Epstein coached Summers on a romance in 2018. Summers was married at the time. The men exchanged a trove of messages between 2013 and 2019, according to the emails. "The university is conducting a review of information concerning individuals at Harvard included in the newly released Jeffrey Epstein documents to evaluate what actions may be warranted," Harvard said in a statement. Video: nalgene_queen / tt. SHOCKER: Numerous Members of Bill Clinton's Administration Were Visitors at Epstein's Island Bill Clinton's Administration was infested with creeps who reportedly visited Epstein Island. President Trump is right.  It is time to investigate the Clintons and the entire Democrat Party for their connections to Jeffrey Epstein.    We reported in 2019 that investigative reporter Conchita Sarnoff, the author of “Trafficking” on the Jeffrey Epstein case, joined Shannon Bream and said Bill Clinton flew on Epstein's plane 27 times and ALMOST EVERY TIME that Clinton was on the plane there were underage girls on the plane. Sarnoff also said Bill Clinton was lying about his flights with Jeffrey Epstein. The Clintons were also regular visitors at Epstein's ranch in New Mexico. Al Gore We also learned in 2019 after a release of files from the first Epstein case that one woman claimed Al Gore was at Epstein's Island. A woman who claims she was a sex slave for billionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein says she met former vice president Al Gore, according to documents unsealed on Friday. The documents were made public Friday after a U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court decision to make public more than 2,000 pages of court filings in a since-settled 2015 defamation case brought by Virginia Roberts against Epstein confidant and aide Ghislaine Maxwell. Larry Summers We uncovered in 2019 that Larry Summers, the creepy former President of Harvard and President Clinton's Secretary of Treasury, flew numerous times on Jeffrey Epstein's jet and even flew to Epstein's so called ‘Orgy Island'.   Source: joehoft.com https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1990869778764910819?s=20 https://twitter.com/RealSLokhova/status/1991114085724033393?s=20  squeaky clean. Bill Clinton, Reid Hoffman and co visited the island, plus possible financial ties to Epstein. So they devised an op to make it look like Pres Trump is compromised when he is not. Now Dems are going down. Senate Passes Epstein “Shiny Thing” Bill,

Luke and Preston delve into America's financial fragility, exploring Treasury funding risks, shifting global power dynamics, and Fed policy challenges. They discuss the rising relevance of Bitcoin and gold amid liquidity constraints, and how economic missteps, tech sector bottlenecks, and geopolitical shifts may shape the future. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:37 - Why the U.S. faces a multi-pronged "poly crisis" despite strong tax receipts 00:02:20 - How short-term debt issuance is straining financial system liquidity 00:04:02 - Why Japan's bond and currency trends signal deeper global shifts 00:05:10 - The impact of U.S. shale decline and oil demand on inflation 00:12:18 - How hedge funds are absorbing Treasury debt—and why it matters 00:06:27 - The surprising risk factors in the tech sector like hyperscaler power limits 00:19:31 - The contradiction in U.S. housing policy and mortgage lengths 00:26:06 - Why Bitcoin and gold are diverging in investor appeal 00:49:16 - How global power shifts and sanctions are elevating gold's role Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.  BOOKS AND RESOURCES X Account: ⁠⁠Luke Gromen⁠⁠. Newsletter: ⁠⁠FFTT⁠⁠. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes ⁠⁠here⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: ⁠⁠Simple Mining⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Human Rights Foundation⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠ ⁠⁠HardBlock⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Linkedin Talent Solutions⁠⁠ ⁠⁠reMarkable⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Netsuite⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Shopify⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Onramp⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Vanta⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Public.com⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Abundant Mines⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Horizon⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

The Trump Administration is preparing to skirt the Epstein Files Transparency Act by once again weaponizing the DOJ against American interests, under cover-up artist Pam Bondi.    Frankie Stockes fills in for Stew Peters to expose the scripted political theater protecting an Israeli child rape network Western civilization has been infected by a parasitic invasion of foreign ideals and values that have been introduced into our culture by strange and morally degenerate people whose goal is world domination. We have been OCCUPIED. Watch the film NOW! https://stewpeters.com/occupied/

Charlie Kirk was executed the second he linked Trump to Epstein pedo tapes and exposed TPUSA as a Zionist grooming tonight JD Sharp brings the proof: Egyptian military jets, cemented crime scene, Erica's fake widow act, pure Mossad hit. The same Jews who murdered Christ just whacked Charlie Kirk on stage to protect their child-rape empire, and JD's receipts will make your blood boil. America remains OCCUPIED by deep-state demons who false-flagged January 6th and still persecute patriots under Trump. Dan Morrissey, the patriot who rejected Trump's pardon and is now fighting alone to expose the fraudulent judges and DOJ liars railroading J6 hostages!   Western civilization has been infected by a parasitic invasion of foreign ideals and values that have been introduced into our culture by strange and morally degenerate people whose goal is world domination. We have been OCCUPIED. Watch the film NOW! https://stewpeters.com/occupied/

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Hosts Austin Campbell, Ram Ahluwalia, and Chris Perkins sit down with Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President's Council of Advisors for Digital Assets at the White House, to break down the latest updates in the crypto market structure bill and the political calculus behind it. Pattrick discusses how Democrats have started to listen more actively, why DeFi remains one of the most complicated pieces of the bill, and how the administration is thinking about innovation versus incumbency.  Later, the group turns to markets: whether the Fed is shifting regimes, why institutions move slowly but decisively, and what catalysts could matter most in the months ahead. Sponsors: Walrus Hosts: Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida Austin Campbell, NYU Stern professor and founder and managing partner of Zero Knowledge Consulting Christopher Perkins, Managing Partner and President of CoinFund Guest: Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the President's Council of Advisors for Digital Assets at the White House Timestamps:

In a word: uncertainty. Retail chains like Target are pulling back on hiring temporary workers ahead of this year's holiday shopping season as tariffs take their toll, consumer sentiment slumps, and little government data leaves them with little guidance. We'll hear more. But first: there's a lot riding on Nvidia results, and investors are split on predictions for the Fed's next rate decision.

In this episode of Money Moves, Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell dive deep into the economic landscape following the government reopening. They break down what the latest (and long-delayed) data tells us about inflation, unemployment, rate-cut probabilities, market psychology, crypto volatility, and the evolving dynamics of the housing market—including portable mortgages, 50-year loans, and the changing profile of the post-COVID consumer.From government dysfunction to AI's impact on job openings, distressed CRE, stock-market forecasts, crypto fear cycles, and the staggering amount of cash sitting on the sidelines, this episode is packed with real-world, data-driven insight to help investors navigate uncertain times with clarity and confidence.Topics Covered:Government reopening, shutdown damage, and the 43-day data blackoutJob losses, jobless claims, and AI's effect on hiringRate-cut probability and the Fed's upcoming decisionsWhy fear is spiking despite strong consumer balance sheetsMarket psychology and how retail investors get trappedCrypto's violent pullback—and why opportunity is risingTariffs, consumer habits, and the “post-COVID” buyerCommercial real-estate distress brewing for 202650-year mortgages, portable mortgages, and housing-market innovationWhy $7.6 trillion in cash is waiting to rush back into marketsPelosi's insane stock-market returns and debates on banning congressional tradingIf you're an investor wondering how to position yourself heading into the holiday season and into 2026, this episode is packed with must-know insights.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text  "XRAY" to 844-447-1555

In a word: uncertainty. Retail chains like Target are pulling back on hiring temporary workers ahead of this year's holiday shopping season as tariffs take their toll, consumer sentiment slumps, and little government data leaves them with little guidance. We'll hear more. But first: there's a lot riding on Nvidia results, and investors are split on predictions for the Fed's next rate decision.

The stock market is broken! Today we talk about a broad range of economic, market, and behavioral topics, beginning with the cognitive bias of sunk costs and how it affects personal decisions, investing, and business choices, emphasizing the importance of recognizing losses and cutting them early. We also explore recent market signals, including distress in the credit and auto-loan markets, and the K-shaped economy. We also critique media and policy narratives, pointing to propaganda around climate change and the pivot to nuclear energy. It's important to be aware and prudent in your observations in uncertain times. We also remark on the rising cost of living, currency devaluation (the end of the penny), and market performance trends. We discuss...  Sunk cost bias was illustrated with examples in plumbing repairs, investing in stocks like QQQ, and hiring ineffective marketers in business. People often continue bad relationships or investments due to the psychological discomfort of admitting mistakes. Non-decisions are still decisions, and it's important to consciously choose a path rather than defaulting to inaction. The conversation shifted to propaganda in media and politics, including discussions about global warming and COVID messaging. Nuclear energy is the only scalable solution for energy needs if climate change is real, and that AI and technology interests influenced the shift in media focus. We discussed deliberate and coincidental market messaging, citing examples of Fed statements and past financial crises like 2008. Michael Burry's recent fund positions and put options on Nvidia and Palantir were discussed as a signal for investors to pay attention, though not necessarily to follow blindly. Extreme caution in investing is recommended, particularly in markets or sectors one does not fully understand, such as the stressed auto-loan market. Signs of market stress were highlighted, including unusual moves in the SOFR rate and subprime auto-loan distress, though not on the scale of the 2008 mortgage crisis. The K-shaped economy was explained, where asset holders benefit from price inflation while those without assets see income stagnation and rising expenses. Rising housing costs and mortgage challenges were linked to declining fertility rates and generational effects on college and workforce participation. Indicators of market sentiment, including CNN's Fear and Greed Index, were analyzed, with a caution not to follow them blindly as they often lag or mislead. Observations were made on shifting consumer behaviors, including declining cash usage and businesses refusing pennies as payment. Future discussion topics were teased, including REIT investment opportunities and year-to-date market performance insights.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/stock-market-is-broken 

Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 The Big Short - End of a Era? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Last Few Days for IBIT CTP - Closing Price This Friday - The Big Short - End of a Era? - What is happening to Bitcoin? - THC laws changing - interesting loophole closed Markets - Tariff juggling - just moving them around - no studies, no rationale - Big Moves - One of the worst Novembers since 2008 - Hindenburg Omen - Fed Losing Cred WHY? - If tariffs are not inflationary and this administration has brought down prices on groceries.... - President Trump signed an EO Friday lowering tariffs on beef, tomatoes, coffee and bananas, according to Bloomberg - So , just shooting from the hip on all of this are we? --- Seriously, where is the plan, where is the analysis, where are the results? Total horseshit More Tariffs - Switzerland and U.S. agree to trade deal; U.S. will lower tariffs to 15% from 39%; Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 billion by the end of 2028 - Switzerland will reduce some import duties on US Imports - For other US export interests, a solution was agreed that takes Switzerland's agricultural policy interests into account: under the agreement, Switzerland will grant the US duty-free bilateral tariff quotas on selected US export products: 500 tonnes for beef, 1,000 tonnes for bison meat and 1,500 tonnes for poultry meat. - Furthermore, Swiss companies are planning to make direct investments in the USA amounting to $200 bln by the end of 2028. - What did we accomplish here? - Just going back to what it was with a slightly higher tariff on Swiss goods than before...BECAUSE WE WERE GETTING KILLED WITH FOOD COSTS Fed Update - Markets no longer view December as a sure bet - Lots of Fed speakers out with commentary that is hawkish - Currently, there is a 46% chance of a rate cut by 0.25% - a month ago it was at 95% - AND, they should not cut in the absence of all data (Stephan Miran looking for 0.50%, but he is a total tool) More Horseshit! - Former Federal Reserve Board Gov. Adriana Kugler broke the central bank's rules regarding stock trading, according to a report released by the U.S. Government Ethics Office. - Now we know why she abruptly resigned a few months ago - That disclosure shows two kinds of violations of Fed rules regarding financial transactions by senior officials at the central bank: purchases of stocks of individual companies, as opposed to mutual funds; and purchases of securities during so-called “blackout periods” leading up to and after Federal Open Market Committee meetings. - Oh - Supposedly her husband did it - but come on! - Fed losing more credibility - this is not the first time.... StampFlation - The Postal Service filed notice with the Postal Regulatory Commission for Shipping Services price changes to take effect Jan. 18, 2026. The proposed adjustments were approved by the governors of USPS this week. - The change would raise prices approximately 6.6 percent for Priority Mail service, 5.1 percent for Priority Mail Express service, 7.8 percent for USPS Ground Advantage and 6.0 percent for Parcel Select. BIG - Michael Burry, the investor whose successful bets against the U.S. housing market in 2008 were recounted in the movie "The Big Short," is closing his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. - In a letter to investors dated October 27, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Burry said he would liquidate the funds and return capital, "but for a small audit/tax holdback" by the end of the year. - "My estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets," Burry said in the letter. - Put on a big OPTIONS short on NVDA and PLTR - We checked and his Registration expired.. Has about $155 million under management - not so much.. - He hinted that he will be back doing something and will announce on November 25th... Softbank - We know that they CUT all of their NVDA holdings - Looking at the 13F, also cut ORCL - New position in INTC - Looking to raise significant cast to outlay to private companies over the next couple of months. - Stock is up 120% YTD, DOWN 12% last week - Did you know He had for many years the distinction of being the person who had lost the most money in history (more than $59 billion during the dot-com crash of 2000 alone, when his SoftBank shares plummeted), a feat surpassed by Elon Musk in the following decades. THC Blues ??? - A new ban, tucked into legislation ending the longest shutdown in history, outlaws products containing more than 0.4 milligrams of total THC per container. == Industry executives said that threshold will wipe out 95% of the $28 billion hemp retail market when it takes effect in a year. - 300,000 jobs could be effected ($28 billion annually) - Possible that state laws will win out, but clearly Federal laws are not going the way of the industry. - Concern that the blackmarket will grow again - However, this can be seen in several ways as it may be cleaning up some of the selling of things like Delta-8 those weird knock-offs seen at gas stations) UK Tax Scrap - British government bond yields rose sharply on Friday morning as investors react to reports that Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will scrap an expected increase in income tax. - The moves came as investors reacted to a report from the Financial Times of an income tax U-turn. - Remember that they did a similar plan a few years ago that caused major havoc with markets and currencies until they withdrew the idea. How Does This Work? - House Republicans drafting legislation that will redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies to individuals and away from health insurance companies, according to Politico Some Eco ...?? - Employment Situation for September 2025 that was supposed to be released on Friday, October 3, 2025, will now be release  Thursday, November 20, 2025 8:30 AM ET - What about October? White House says it may NEVER be released Hindenburg Omen - There was some excitement in the world of technical analysis the past two weeks as we saw 5 separate signals fire for something called the Hindenburg Omen. This is a warning signal of trouble, but trouble does not always come. What is fair to say is that Hindenburg Omen signals have appeared at every major stock market top going back several decades. - According to Tom McClellan: The current count of 5 signals is not as big as some other clusters. But we got 4 signals in a cluster at the end of 2021, ahead of the 2022 bear market. So 4 is enough, if the market is inclined to live up to this warning. And 2 signals were enough back in December 2024 and March 2025 to tell us about the trouble in the market which unfolded in the April 2025 tariff reaction minicrash. But 5 is better. Pied Piper - Losing Followers - OpenAi plans to invest $1.4 Trillion over the next 5 years or so - Biggest beneficiary - Oracle - Stock went from $250 to $340 overnight - now a $220 (Full Round-trip) - Oracle is looking to raise $38 billion in debt sales to help fund its AI buildout, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who asked not to be named because the information is confidential. Bloomberg reported on the planned debt raise last month. Disney Earnings - Hmmmmm...... - Shares fall 8% as revenue misses - Digging in for a prolonged flight with YouTube - The company also missed quarterly revenue expectations as the cable weakness overshadowed strong growth in the company's streaming and parks businesses central to its growth. - Family of 4 - Trip to Disney - A  3-night trip with tickets and dining is estimated to be between $6,000 and $9,000 Starbucks - Can it get any worse for this company? - Starbucks Workers United launched a strike in more than 40 cities and 65 stores on the day of chain's Red Cup Day sales event. - NY incoming Mayor Mandami says there should be a total boycott of the stores - The union is pushing for improved hours, higher wages and the resolution of hundreds of unfair labor practice charges levied against Starbucks. Buffett - Berkshire - Berkshire Hathaway revealed a $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL), and further reduced its stake in Apple (AAPL), detailing its equity portfolio for the last time before Warren Buffett ends his 60-year run as chief executive officer. - They also sold more Bank of America - *6% reduction - although still the thrid largest stockholder - Sold homebuilder DR Horton - Bought position in Domino's Pizza and Chubb ---- DPZ chart looks terrible Over to China - Economy not getting any better - Fixed-asset investment contracted 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, steepening from a 0.5% decline in the January-to-September period. - Retail sales climbed 2.9% in October from a year earlier, softening from a 3% year-on-year rise in September. - Industrial output expanded 4.9% in October, a slowdown from a 6.5% rise in the prior month. - The last time China recorded a contraction in fixed-asset investment was in 2020 during the pandemic, according to data going back to 1992 from Wind Information, a private database focused on the country. Electric Prices - We know that the new wave of data centers are requiring HUGE amounts of energy to keep them running - Residential utility bills rose 6% on average nationwide in August compared with the same period in the previous year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Nov 18, 2025 – Cracks are showing in the AI trade, warns Peter Boockvar. As US tech giants spend up to 50% of revenue on AI, Wall Street grows wary. With China releasing open-source models, Boockvar favors commodities and gold over big tech amid rising uncertainty.

House passes a bill almost unanimously to release all of the files in the federal investigation of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein; President Donald Trump meets with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House, where the prince pledges to invest $1 trillion in the U.S and the president dismisses a question about the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which U.S. intelligence pinned on Saudi Arabia, saying the prince was not involved, Khashoggi was "extremely controversial", and "Whether you liked him or didn't like him, things happen”; House passes a resolution criticizing Congressman Chuy Garcia (D-IL) for deciding not to seek reelection only after only one other Democrat had qualified for the primary – his chief of staff; Federal Reserve board member Michael Barr warns there is 'real danger' to weakening the Fed's oversight of bank operations; National Transportation Safety Board points to a loose wire and faulty fuel pump as the causes of the blackouts on the cargo ship Dali that led to the collision with, and collapse of, the Key Bridge in Baltimore in 2024. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Wharton FinTech's Abhi Chadha sits down with Michele Alt, Co-Founder of The Klaros Group and former OCC regulator, to unpack the evolving relationship between fintechs and the U.S. banking system. Michele shares her insights from two decades at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and her current work helping non-banks pursue bank charters. They discuss the shifting regulatory climate across administrations - from the OCC's early fintech charter attempts, to the Biden-era freeze, and now a renewed openness under Trump 2.0. Michele explains the nuances of charter types like industrial loan companies (ILCs) and national trust banks. The conversation explores: - The history and future of fintech chartering - Differences among OCC, FDIC, and Fed oversight - How U.S. fintech regulation compares to Europe and the U.K. - Challenges foreign fintechs face when entering the U.S. market - How Michele's OCC experience helps startups navigate complex regulatory processes Michele also shares her perspective on the cyclical nature of financial regulation - from deregulatory “sugar highs” to inevitable crackdowns - and offers advice for those eager to build a career in fintech regulation and compliance.

Is Bitcoin headed for a catastrophic 2026 meltdown? In today's episode, I break down the shocking Fed action unfolding right now and how it could flip the entire crypto landscape upside down. 

Today we had the opportunity to host Jim Bride, President of Energy Tariff Experts (ETE). We became familiar with Jim after reading his report on power generation costs and impacts on electric bills earlier this year (linked here). Jim founded ETE in 2013 to provide expert consulting, data products, and analysis related to retail electricity, natural gas, and water rates. Before founding ETE, Jim served as a Portfolio Manager at EnerNOC and earlier in his career worked as an environmental professional at Tetra Tech EMI, focused on EPA Superfund investigations and brownfield remediation. ETE helps clients navigate the complex world of energy rates by providing actionable data and insights on utility pricing structures to facilitate efficient capital deployment, reduce energy expenses, and enhance the performance of distributed energy resource management systems. We were thrilled to visit with Jim to discuss ETE's report and the power landscape more broadly. In our conversation, we begin by exploring how rising power prices, especially in the PJM market, are gaining political attention. Jim then provides a brief history of the utility sector, tracing the deregulation movement that began in the 1980s and ultimately reshaped the industry into separate components for generation, transmission, and distribution. We discuss how each of these components, along with public-policy charges like renewable mandates or green standards, contribute to PJM customers' bills. Jim describes his team's extensive effort to reconstruct 12 years of utility tariff data to understand which costs have been driving recent increases. Their findings show that while generation costs had broadly fallen for a decade due to cheap shale-driven natural gas and competitive markets, only spiking briefly during the Ukraine-related gas price surge, transmission charges have grown significantly as utilities invest heavily in new and replacement infrastructure under favorable FERC rules. In states like New Jersey and Maryland, public-policy charges tied to decarbonization mandates have also risen meaningfully. The result is that today's higher bills stem mainly from transmission spending and policy add-ons, not from generation itself, though all components interact. The discussion closes with reflections on aging grid assets, rising load from electrification and data centers, and how future planning and policy choices will shape costs going forward. It was a meaty conversation and we greatly appreciate Jim joining us. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted that markets over the last week can best be described as “wobbly” due to growing interest rate cut concerns, continued broader market valuation concerns, and AI/Tech equity exhaustion. On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has crept up recently to just over 4.1% on concerns that the Fed may not cut interest rates at their December FOMC Meeting. The odds of a December rate cut have fallen from ~75% just a few weeks ago to ~50% today. Over the last month, Bitcoin has plunged from a peak of ~$125k to ~$90k, which also implies there's a bit of a risk-off trade occurring. On the broader equity market front, the S&P 500 is down ~3% over the last week (down ~5% from recent highs) and seems to have lost its long-held trading momentum. Big6 AI/Tech stocks are down ~11% from recent all-time highs and both the S&P 500 and Big6 AI/Tech stocks are nearing technically oversold levels, which hasn't been seen since the April tariff scare. NVIDIA will report its Q3 results after the close on Wednesday, and it will be a huge test to see whether Big AI/Tech equities will continue to be the broader equity market leaders. On the oil market front, the WTI price continues to hold the $60/bbl level, with the biggest overhang continuing to be the size of the 2026 global oil supply surplus. The IEA

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.Key TakeawaysFed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.comHashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

As the economic landscape grows more complex, investors and advisors are facing new questions about growth, inflation, and what the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) may do next. In this episode, host John P. Bryson is joined by Matt and Emily, who discuss the strength of theongoing market rally, recent volatility in the banking sector, the bond market, and rate-cut expectations. They emphasize thoughtful allocation, diversification, and a focus on quality as advisors position portfolios in a momentum-driven environment.Below are a few highlights from the episode:1 How is U.S. economic data shaping up currently?Emily: Economic data is complicated right now. The latest small business survey by the National Federation of Independent Business showed a deterioration in sentiment. Manufacturing data is split, the Fed showed mixed messages, and job openings are decelerating. It's difficult to get a read right now given the lack of economic data due to the government shutdown. Overall, the U.S. economy is continuing to see a slow deceleration.2 What is the bond market telling us about possible Fed rate cuts?Emily: Credit markets are stable, with high-yield spreads below 3.0%, suggesting no broad stress. The two-year Treasury yield, which has broken below 3.5%, indicates the Fed may need to cut rates more than previously expected. Inflation is also likely to slow more than official data suggests. Labor market softness and real-time housing data showing falling prices are leading us to expect the Fed to cut a bit more, we think potentially four or five cuts into 2026.3 What are your conversations with advisors and investors focused on right now?Matt: While the recent rally has been remarkable, the question is if it's sustainable. Our focus is on how to continue allocating capital for appreciation for clients, but in a thoughtful way, which is why we're discussing diversification. We've talked about alternatives like infrastructure-related equities and multi-alternative strategies, as well as mid-cap equities to reduce concentration risk in large-cap U.S. stocks. On the bond side, you can still get good income for clients where you can liability match and use this income for spending needs over the coming years—so it makes sense to take advantage while it lasts.

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed's recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy! __ Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx __ Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle (05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth (09:43) Grayscale Ad (10:24) Impact of Fed's Hawkish Pivot (13:41) Recession Odds (16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy (20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7 (21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics (25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (29:28) Grayscale Ad (30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con't) (35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints (40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets (47:21) View on U.S. Equities (50:57) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Nvidia results loom after the longest S&P 500 losing streak since August. Crypto rebounded late Tuesday but mega caps sank. Lowes, Target, and Fed minutes also are on tap today.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0130-1125) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kevin Hincks from the Cboe Global Markets says Nvidia (NVDA) will not only have ripple effects on dozens of other stocks but on the overall market. He cites CEO Jensen Huang's unwavering guidance and support for the strength in AI growth. Kevin expects "video game numbers" for Nvidia's report and wants to hear more about its Blackwell chip. On the macro front, he's anticipating more revelations on the Fed from its latest FOMC minutes release as well as today's Fed Speakers. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Sam Stovall is surprised by the market pullback but, citing historical trends, thinks December could “see an improvement.” He argues the Fed and valuations are the two reasons the market is experiencing weakness: valuations “made the market vulnerable” and the trigger is concerns the Fed won't cut rates in December. Sam also previews Nvidia (NVDA) earnings and explains what he's watching for in the report.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

After a long hiatus (no, not related to the government shutdown) we return with a look at the economy and markets. On the economic front, despite a lack of formal data, signs point to a weakening labor market. Consumers in the bottom 80% have spending post-Covid that has barely kept pace with inflation, with prices higher by around 25% since 2020. Unemployment has climbed to over 9% for those between 20 and 24 years of age. All these are signs of a K-shaped economic recovery, with a strong stock market supporting higher spending for those in the top 20% of incomes. The Fed faces a challenge with a weakening labor market but inflation near 3%; the odds of a December rate cut have fallen to 50%. In terms of the equity market, we have also seen a K-shape. While overall market performance has been narrow (only 158 out of 500 stocks in the S&P are outperforming YTD), it has been the Mag 7, which have seen strong earnings growth, and very speculative stocks, fueled by retail traders both in and outside the U.S. For the former, this growth comes with a caveat that their once strong free cash flows are being siphoned off (and bolstered by debt) to fuel the massive capital expenditure required to build out AI infrastructure. For the latter, a form of tribalism has united retail speculators, who are treating stocks much like sports wagering, which has also seen massive volume growth. It is important to note that despite stocks favored by retail investors performing well this year that, since 2021, the average Robinhood account is estimated to have declined in value while the S&P 500 is up substantially. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

Markets are bracing for a holiday week packed with economic data, retail earnings, and Fed uncertainty. Will traders feast on opportunity or wobble under volatility? Tune in for insights from IBKR's Jeff Praissman who hosts Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy.

On this episode of Simply Money presented by Allworth Financial, Bob and Brian ask the question every long-term investor should be thinking about right now: while the headlines fixate on the Fed, are we focusing on the wrong thing? Plus, what a major move involving a Cincinnati-based company can teach us about handling company stock. Career expert Julie Bauke also joins to explain why helping your kids prepare for a career has never been more complicated—and what really matters in an AI-driven world. And don’t miss answers to your biggest financial questions, from capital gains strategy to whether ETFs really beat mutual funds in a taxable account.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Politico reported that US officials are close to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict.The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.European bourses are trading on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst US equity futures gain ahead of NVIDIA.USD is modestly firmer into FOMC Minutes, USD/JPY rises above 156.00 after Finance Minister Katayama said there were no specific discussions on FX with BoJ Governor Ueda.Bonds initially bid by a subdued risk tone, but now hold a downward bias sentiment improves; Gilts briefly boosted by CPI, but then come under marked pressured.Crude complex is modestly lower with Zelensky's delegation in Turkey, XAU returns above USD 4100/oz.Looking ahead, US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed's Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE's Dhingra, supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings.The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources; Russia said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.BoJ Governor Ueda, Japanese Finance Minister Katayama, and Japanese Economy Minister Kiuchi are set to meet at 09:10 GMT (04:10 EST), according to JiJi; Japanese Finance Minister Katayama is expected to speak to media at 09:30 GMT (04:30 EST).The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), US International Trade (Aug), FOMC Minutes, Fed's Williams, Logan, Barkin, Miran; BoE's Dhingra, supply from the UK & US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Target & Lowe's. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Charlie Kirk was Mossad executed the second he turned on the Jewish billionaires and their Epstein pedo-blackmail protecting Trump and Netanyahu. We're exposing this Israeli child trafficking syndicate and their Satanic grip on America. They have turned the entire sky into one giant death spraying gas chamber, showering your kids with aluminum, barium, and God only knows what while steering trillion dollar kill storms right into the heart of conservative America. Ariana Masters joins us with 75 years of bulletproof contracts, lab proven toxic rain, and satellite footage that nails the treasonous U.S. regime. America is waddling straight into early graves while Big Pharma rakes in billions and spineless clowns shove “body positivity” garbage down everyone's throat. Tonight John Jubilee comes on to smash the lies wide open: his Energized Health protocol stripped 115 pounds off a father who was circling the drain, obliterated diabetes completely, and transformed a wife who lived in terror into one who finally sleeps in peace, all in just 88 days of raw, unfiltered truth.   Western civilization has been infected by a parasitic invasion of foreign ideals and values that have been introduced into our culture by strange and morally degenerate people whose goal is world domination. We have been OCCUPIED. Watch the film NOW! https://stewpeters.com/occupied/

Our Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter and Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang return to conclude their two-part episode on 2026 outlooks and explain why the market environment is turning in favor of risk assets, especially U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth Carpenter: Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes.It's Tuesday, November 18th at 10am in New York.Alright, Serena in 2025, global markets rode some significant volatility driven by tariffs, policy uncertainty. Things went up, they went down. Equities ultimately outperformed bonds as rate cuts began. But cross-asset strategy depended so much on identifying correlations, opportunities – all in a world that is still adapting to the new geopolitical dynamics and what seemed like evolving rules.So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026?Serena Tang: We think 2026 will be a strong year for risk assets as you have unusually pro-cyclical policy mix that's supportive of earnings. And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives. Particularly those related to AI CapEx investment.And I think such a constructive environment really calls for a risk on tilt. We recommend equities over credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets.Seth Carpenter: Okay. I think last year we had some preference, at least for U.S. equities. Are there any other big rotations versus more of the same that you really want to highlight for folks?Serena Tang: In terms of, I think the strategy outlook itself, a big shift has been what we think drive investor focus the most. Our strategy mid-year outlook had focused heavily on global macro risks, right? Especially those, I think, emanated from trade tensions, which you alluded to earlier.I think this time around as the distribution of outcomes on tariffs, I think, has become a bit narrower, it's very much more about asset specific stories. And yes, you know, to your point about being, bullish on U.S. equities, we've maintained that view this time round and believe that U.S. equities can generally do better than rest of world.As you know, Mike Wilson, a colleague and chief U.S. equity strategist, he has a price target of 7800 for the S&P 500 index …Seth Carpenter: Wow.Serena Tang: Beating the expected returns from other regional equities by like quite a bit. So that's not changed. But I think that with this backdrop of post cyclical policy combo lifting U.S. earnings, we've also turned more bullish on high-yield corporate credit – that is bonds which are riskier.I think very much like U.S. equities, we believe that the asset class can benefit from the combination of monetary deregulation policy. But there's also like a very interesting technical component there, which is, as we expect, a surge in investment grade issuance to fund AI related CapEx. I think the high-yield market will be more insulated from this, which means outperformance versus higher quality corporate bonds.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay. So, as you're coming up with these strategies and these recommendations in lots of ways, it just relies on forecasting. And I have to say I'm sympathetic to how hard forecasting is, especially when it comes to the future. In our economic forecast, we also included a bunch of different alternate scenarios because I just see that much uncertainty in the global economy.So, with that as a backdrop, nothing is for sure. But where would you say your highest conviction calls are when it comes to investing in 2026?Serena Tang: Well, as I mentioned, we like U.S. equities and that remains a very high conviction call for us. [I] sort of dug through the details of that already. And so, I want to turn to a[n]other high conviction view, which is curve steepening. We see pretty material U.S. treasury curve steepening over the next year. I think even as a macro strategist, actually expect yields at least in the backend to be mostly range bound. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks.Seth Carpenter: So that's super helpful in terms of the places where you're convicted. Let me be perhaps a little bit unfair because nothing is in fact certain. And so, if there are things that we feel pretty sure about, there've got to be things where we're either not sure or parts of the market that really pose the most risk.So, if I asked you then, where do you see the biggest risk for investors in markets next year, what would you say?Serena Tang: So, one of them really is AI investment cycle abruptly ending. And this has been a topic of huge debate in all of the investor meetings that we've had over the last several weeks. Because the idea is you have a sharp pullback in investment in the next 12 months, which could trigger a pretty cascading effect. And of course that would likely pressure U.S. equities, I think given hyperscalers index weight. But could weirdly enough benefit IG credit by reducing issuance, which has been the main driver of wider spreads in our forecast. But I think the other risk here actually is if animal spirits run a bit too hot. Underlying our equities over credit over rates allocation is some revival in animal spirits, but it's not the kind of irrational exuberance that marks the end of cycle in our view.Given, I think there's still rational belief in that policy triumvirate that we touched on earlier, that can still be supportive of risk. But you know, I think if sentiment does overheat then our allocation tilt towards cyclicals and beta would be wrong. And historically late cycle expansions see investment grade outperforming high yield inequities, with bonds eventually leading returns.The last risk, I think, to our asset allocation, is really the Fed. Either the FOMC not easing further over the next 12 months or if it changes its reaction function. And I think both of those will have very different implications of what happens to the front end of the yield curve. So, my question to you, Seth, is what do you see as the probability around both of those scenarios?Seth Carpenter: Look, with the data that we have before the government shut down, it was clear there was a tension. Spending by households, spending by businesses was strong. Employment data were getting weaker and weaker, and the Fed has decided to start cutting to err on the side of insulating against further deterioration in the labor market.So, one thing that could upend our forecast is that the real signal is from the spending. Spending stays strong, the labor market eventually catches up to the stronger spending, and we start to see job gains come back. If that happens, especially with inflation now running notably above the Fed's target, I just don't really think we're going to get anywhere near the number of rate cuts that we forecast or that are already priced into market. So, you'd have to see a reversal.How likely is that you can't rule it out? I'd say 20 percent or something like that. Maybe a little bit more. On the other hand, to the downside. I wonder if what you're getting at a little bit is there's going to be some turnover in the personnel at the Fed. And do we have to worry about a fundamentally different reaction function from the Fed going forward and cutting rates aggressively, even if the macro considerations don't warrant? Is that really what you were getting at?Serena Tang: Yes. I think that has been the question on the forefront of investors' minds…Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I think that's a real question. The way I look at it is Chair Powell is in charge of the Fed now. His term goes through May of next year. And so, until we get to the middle of next year, I don't really think there's any fundamental change in how the Fed does business. But it really does seem like we're going to have a new Fed chair in June of next year. But even there, we have got to remember that the committee is a committee and that's how policy is decided. And so, if there was a new chair who really, really, really wanted to take policy in a truly unorthodox way, I also don't think that's really feasible over the second half of next year – because there just won't have been that much turnover in terms of the personnel of the Fed. That's how we're looking at it for now. I really don't think that latter version of the world is a big risk. That said, I'm going to throw it back to you [be]cause I always have to get the last word.You talked about asset classes, bullish on U.S. equities. We talked about high yield bonds; we talked about some of the risks that markets have to face. But one thing I didn't hear – and we do have a global investor base – Is about currencies and specifically the dollar.So, this time last year, the team made a pretty bold call that the dollar would depreciate a great deal. And here we are and the dollar has come off a lot on net over this year. That stabilized a little bit. Maybe not for the whole year [be]cause that kind of forecasting is hard for currencies. But what do you see over the next few months called the next half year for the dollar? Is it going to continue the trend or do you think we should see a reversal?Serena Tang: So, we do think the dollar will continue its trend downwards from here to the middle of next year. And I know, I know. There's been a lot of discussion, there's been a lot of debate around whether the dollar has basically stopped where we are. But the thing is, you know, going back to what you mentioned around the path for growth in the U.S. and unemployment in the U.S. – if we do see softer economic data in the first half of next year, that can drive the dollar downwards. In fact, we're once again, more bearish than consensus on the dollar by the middle of next year.Seth Carpenter: Got it. All right. That's super helpful. Serena, thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me today and let me ask the questions of you.Serena Tang: Always a pleasure, Seth.Seth Carpenter: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

Market Decline and Economic Data Updates - November 18, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel reports from Newport Beach, California, on a market downturn with the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq all experiencing declines. He discusses the ongoing shift from growth to value stocks and highlights the significant market valuations of some major companies. Despite poor economic data reporting due to government delays, there is a noted cooling in the labor market and mixed signals in housing market confidence. Fed officials continue to focus on inflation concerns, reducing the likelihood of a rate cut in December. Brian also explains valuation metrics like revenue multiples and PE ratios to help understand market valuations. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:43 High Valuation Concerns 01:46 Economic Data and Labor Market 02:43 Home Builder Confidence and Fed Updates 03:41 Understanding Financial Terminology 05:08 Conclusion and Sign Off- Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

With inflation above target and the labor market weakening, is the Fed poised to cut rates again? Rob Kaplan, Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, discusses the uncertain outlook with Allison Nathan. This episode was recorded on November 12, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products.  This material may contain forward-looking statements.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.  Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.  A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.  Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.    Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party.  © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, we discuss how Meta and its algorithms shape what we see online, why the penny has finally been discontinued, and the legal and economic complications that follow from eliminating small denominations. For the “foolishness of the week,” we highlight a small-town newspaper that was awarded a $3 million settlement stemming from an unlawful raid, and the First Amendment implications it raises. We examine the disconnect between a sluggish economy and soaring asset prices, discuss how Fed policy and excess liquidity fuel inflation in financial markets, and consider what rising bubbles in stocks, housing, gold, and bitcoin mean for retirement planning and long-term investment behavior. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:37 Meta Entertainment and Hot Wheels 04:49 The Discontinuation of the Penny 06:45 How Eliminating Pennies Would Affect Retailers and Consumers 11:18 Who Actually Has the Power to Change U.S. Currency 12:49 Reflections on U.S. Currency 15:57 Foolishness of the Week: $3 Million Newspaper Raid Settlement 18:05 Press Freedom, Accountability, and Government Overreach 20:58 Understanding Financial Bubbles 24:29 Why the Markets Aren't Reflecting Economic Reality 27:35 The Fed's Liquidity Regime and Phantom Wealth 33:56 Unintended Consequences of Economic Policies 37:55 Investing in a Changing Economy 38:49 Retirement Planning in a Bubble-Driven Economy 41:11 Learning from Historical Economic Events 43:14 Personal Anecdotes and Economic Trends 45:12 Future of Investments Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Nov 14, 2025 – Chris Hennessey shares tips on maximizing deductions, managing SALT limits, and estate planning essentials before 2026 tax law changes. Don't miss his expert advice for investors and high earners...

Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber kicked off the hour with fresh economic data and huge breaking news on the AI front involving Nvidia, Microsoft, and private start-up Anthropic - who's also notched a new valuation of $350B. Get the key details, what it means for stocks, and a discussion on whether we're reaching bubble territory this hour. Plus: did Jensen Huang already reveal what to expect from earnings tomorrow? How to read the tea leaves - going back to October.Also in focus: the retail wrap-up according to UBS, as Home Depot kicks off a huge week of reports from Target and Walmart later on... And one former Fed governor's take on what to expect in December when it comes to rate cuts. cnbc.com/squawk-on-the-street-disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In Part One, we followed the money — from ancient temples to the secret meeting at Jekyll Island, where a handful of bankers drafted a plan that would change the world. Now, in Part Two, The Conspiracy Podcast dives into what happened after that plan became law — and how it gave birth to one of the most powerful and most misunderstood institutions in history: the Federal Reserve.When the Federal Reserve Act passed in 1913, Americans had no idea how deeply it would shape their lives. A new hybrid system was born — part public, part private, run by twelve regional banks and a central board in Washington. It was designed to stop the boom-and-bust chaos that had plagued the country for decades. But to this day, people still ask the same question: Who really controls the Fed?The boys break down how this quiet institution evolved from a crisis-fighting experiment into a global financial empire. From the Great Depression to World War II, from the gold standard to the postwar boom, the Fed's fingerprints are everywhere — printing money, rescuing markets, and rewriting the rules of capitalism. They'll unpack how the Fed gained near-godlike power to move markets with a single announcement, and why every decision behind closed doors ripples through every dollar in your pocket.But this is The Conspiracy Podcast, and no story this big comes without shadows. Part Two dives into the darker theories — that the Fed is a private cartel of bankers pulling the strings behind the government; that the Rothschilds and Rockefellers still influence its policy; that the institution was designed not to stabilize America, but to enslave it in endless debt. From the myths of the Titanic murders to whispers about JFK's silver-backed money, the conspiracies surrounding the Fed are as old as the Fed itself.So, what's the truth behind the “Creature from Jekyll Island”? Is the Federal Reserve a necessary guardian of modern finance… or a hidden hand controlling the world economy?Sean, Jorge, and Eric crack open the vault and ask the question few dare to: who really runs the money machine?www.patreon.com/theconspiracypodcast

On this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I'm pleased to welcome back Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V. Our conversation centers on one of the most consequential themes in markets today: the intersection of artificial intelligence, exponential innovation, and market structure. With Nvidia's historic rise as a backdrop and AI's increasing integration into every sector, Jordi pushes back on the tendency to label this cycle a “bubble,” arguing that AI is more akin to electricity — an enabling technology whose applications will permeate everyday life. Demand for compute remains effectively infinite, he notes, and the supply shortfalls in GPUs, data centers, and power capacity shape how investors should think about the buildout phase.Jordi also lays out a framework for navigating volatility in sectors tied to AI buildout — including how to handle 20–30% drawdowns — and why estimate revisions matter more than multiple expansion from here. Beyond markets, we explore the labor dynamics of exponential technology: the K-shaped economy, margin pressure at retailers, and why he believes labor participation will keep drifting lower even without mass layoffs.Finally, we examine the policy environment. Here Jordi asserts that the Fed's framework is backward looking and misses how humanoids, robotaxis, and accelerated drug discovery may drive deflationary pressures.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jordi Visser.

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point8:10 Are we past the point of no return?9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs34:04 Bitcoin39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario42:00 Lessons from David Swensen45:19 Closing remarks

This week's Money Hour dives into one of the most volatile stretches the market has seen in months — and why investors are reacting the way they are. Brian welcomes Richard Davila of Profitscore Capital Management to break down the real drivers behind the market sell-off: stalled Fed rate cuts, a crypto crash shaking retail investors, shaky labor data, and sky-high expectations for Nvidia's upcoming earnings. From there, the conversation shifts to what volatility actually signals, how ProfitScore uses "volatility regimes," and why the current neutral regime makes investing especially confusing for DIY investors. Brian and Rich also dig into the emotional side of investing — why behavior, sentiment, and over-concentration are hurting more portfolios than bad stock picks. They walk listeners through long-term strategy, diversification, and how to avoid chasing AI or crypto without a plan. The second half of the show widens the lens: the economic pressure on Idaho families, cost-of-living concerns, wage stagnation, health-care subsidy worries, and why newcomers with cash are reshaping Idaho's housing reality. Plus, they unpack the boom in AI, robotics, nuclear innovation, and quantum computing — including why the next decade will determine who leads the global economy and what investors can realistically expect.   Listen, Watch, Subscribe, Ask! https://www.therealmoneypros.com Host: Brian Wiley Guest: Richard Davila, CTA | Profitscore Capital Management

Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti discuss the market rout intensifying, sweeping up everything from tech to crypto to gold. Other than sentiment, what is driving the market sell off? Home Depot cuts outlook as home improvements slow down. Fed's Waller calls for December rate cut to bolster labor market. Americans could see a big sticker shock for turkeys this Thanksgiving.

Podcast del programa Imagen Empresarial transmitido originalmente el 18 de noviembre del 2025. Conduce Rodrigo Pacheco. Los entrevistados de hoy: Entrevista: Rosa María Rubio Kantun, analista económico en Monex Tema: **Reapertura del Gobierno y qué esperar de los próximos datos de EUA: Persisten señales de debilidad en el empleo, ¿Qué esperar al conocer las cifras de la nómina no agrícola sin la tasa de desempleo? **¿Qué esperar de la minuta de la Fed? El miércoles 19 de noviembre se publicará, por lo que será clave analizar el punto de vista de los miembros del FOMC ante la falta de datos económicos y el rezago que tiene la información, con el momento actual de la economía y por ende cómo podría afectar este contexto en la última decisión de política monetaria de la Fed. Entrevista: Vincent Speranza, director general de Endeavor México y asesor para la región Latam y Stefan Möller, fundador y CEO de Klar Tema: Actualidad del emprendimiento en México

More than $1 Trilion has been wiped off the value of the cryptocurrency market in the past six weeks amid fears of a tech bubble and fading expectations for a US rate cut next month.~This episode is sponsored by BTCC~BTCC 10% Deposit Bonus! ➜ https://bit.ly/PBNBTCCGuest: Tim Warren, Host of Investing BrozInvesting Broz Youtube ➜ ‪‪  @TimWarrenTrades  Follow on Twitter ➜  @timsta6753   00:00 Intro00:10 Sponsor: BTCC01:00 Cloudflare Outage01:30 Fed new chair?02:10 Matt Hougan & Tom Lee: We're still recovering from Oct.10 but nearing bottom04:20 Is the bottom in?06:40 Is Tim bullish or bearish?09:30 2021 vs now11:30 No Market Structure Bill in 202513:07 Job losses rising, no Fed rate cut December?16:00 USDT dominance19:00 Most ETF holders underwater22:50 OTHERS Chart25:00 Ethereum analysis27:15 ETH/BTC chart29:00 Bitcoin Dominance30:15 Solana analysis31:50 Outro#Crypto #bitcoin #Ethereum~Crypto Crash Ending?

Mish Schneider is looking forward to Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) earnings, as well as some department stores, to track where consumers are spending. She previews the Fed's December meeting, pulling for a rate cut, but discusses how expectations for that cut have fallen substantially. She believes the Fed is more focused on the labor market as new college grads enter the market as unemployment rises. Right now, she likes hard assets including silver (/SI), and potentially big tech.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

To understand market weakness, Chris Whalen says investors need to be paying attention to the Fed's balance sheet and U.S. Treasury moves. He notes that the Treasury has been “sucking cash” out of the market. Combining that with a shrinking Fed balance sheet has “contributed to what we're seeing in stocks.” He touches on difficulties in private credit and thinks investors should be wary of leveraged companies. Chris also looks at mortgages and the banking sector, highlighting SoFi (SOFI) and Fiserv (FI).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Ryan Kelley discusses the changing outlook for next year, especially in regard to the Fed's rate path. He highlights his firm's mid-cap fund HFMDX, looking for price and earnings momentum among other factors. Of its top holdings: “They're going to benefit from the boom in AI…from a construction point of view.” He also looks at companies integrating AI, such as Wayfair (W). ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

It was another awful day on Wall Street for a number of reasons and we'll start there. This is the Business News Headlines for Tuesday the 18th day of November, thanks for listening. In other news, we, like you, had issues this morning with some social media channels in particular X and we'll share what happened. Meta wins….and we'll tell you what they won. The US for years have told Americans not to trust banks in China…but the US government is not listening. We are getting clues as to what the Fed will or will not do next month.  Honda recalls thousands of vehicles. After a backlash Alabama will continue to offer PBS. We'll check the numbers in The Wall Street Report and Google debuts a new AI tool.  Let's go! Thanks for listening! The award winning Insight on Business the News Hour with Michael Libbie is the only weekday business news podcast in the Midwest. The national, regional and some local business news along with long-form business interviews can be heard Monday - Friday. You can subscribe on  PlayerFM, Podbean, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or TuneIn Radio. And you can catch The Business News Hour Week in Review each Sunday Noon Central on News/Talk 1540 KXEL. The Business News Hour is a production of Insight Advertising, Marketing & Communications. You can follow us on Twitter @IoB_NewsHour...and on Threads @Insight_On_Business.

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

After President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea late last month, some tariffs have been suspended or lowered, and China said it will restart purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods. To hear about the mood among Chinese buyers and U.S. exporters, Marketplace's Jennifer Park recently attended a trade show in Shanghai. But first: an ethics violation by a former Fed and the impacts of delayed government data.

After President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met in South Korea late last month, some tariffs have been suspended or lowered, and China said it will restart purchases of U.S. soybeans and other agricultural goods. To hear about the mood among Chinese buyers and U.S. exporters, Marketplace's Jennifer Park recently attended a trade show in Shanghai. But first: an ethics violation by a former Fed and the impacts of delayed government data.