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Chris Whalen breaks down Trump's “Big Beautiful Bill,” rising tensions over tariffs, the growing debate between gold and Bitcoin, and why America's exploding debt could trigger major consequences. We also explore inflation, reserve currency status, the Fed's future, and what investors should be watching in 2025. Buy Chris' New Book: https://a.co/d/bY08A6d ______________________________________________ Learn More About BetterWealth: https://betterwealth.com ==================== DISCLAIMER: https://bttr.ly/aapolicy*This video is for entertainment purposes only and is not financial or legal advice. Financial Advice Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for education, discussion, and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of the information on this channel. Neither host nor guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered.
After yesterday's firm rally, investors await an avalanche of news this afternoon including Fed minutes before the close, followed by Nvidia and Salesforce results afterward.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0131-0525)
APAC stocks mostly higher following the Wall St. strength, futures since off best awaiting NVIDIA earningsUS President Trump says Canada joining the Golden Dome is free if they are the 51st State, adding "They are considering the offer!"DXY continues to pick up, EUR/USD tests 1.13 to the downside & Cable lost 1.35, JPY choppyRBNZ cut as expected, but refrained from overtly dovish languageJGBs came under pressure after a somewhat mixed 40yr auction, USTs & EGBs also softCrude marginally firmer ahead of OPEC, gold indecisive, base peers lacklustreLooking ahead, highlights include German Unemployment Rate, ECB SCE, US Richmond Fed Index, FOMC Minutes, OPEC+/JMMC, Speakers including Fed's Williams, Kashkari & BoE's Pill, Supply from UK, Germany & US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Abercrombie & Macy's.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Bloomberg Businessweek brings you a smart and fun chat show about all things...business. Hosted by award-winning business and economics journalists Max Chafkin (author of The Contrarian: Peter Thiel and Silicon Valley’s Pursuit of Power) and Stacey Vanek Smith (former co-host of NPR’s Planet Money and reporter for Marketplace), Everybody's Business is powered by the unparalleled sources and reporters who bring you Businessweek magazine’s headlines and the stories behind them. The show gives listeners a window into the discussions happening in boardrooms, Zooms and group chats in power centers around the world. From interpreting Fed meetings to the business of wolf cloning, each week Max, Stacey and their friends at Bloomberg Businessweek guide listeners through what really went on during the last week from Wall Street and Main Street. Because what’s happening with money and markets is everybody’s business. Listen here and subscribe to Everybody's Business on the iHeartRadio app or wherever you get your podcasts!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
May 27, 2025 – What's in store for the 2025 US economy in the second half of this year? In a thought-provoking discussion with FS Insider's Cris Sheridan, Alpine Macro's David Abramson suggests a second-half slowdown but one that...
The Trump White House has enacted tariffs in the belief that other countries are “cheating” by enacting tariffs against US goods and “manipulating” their currencies. However, with the US dollar being the world's reserve currency, the US has engaged in dollar manipulation through inflation.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/mmt-and-us-history-redefining-chartalism
Send us a textIs the financial system broken—or just misunderstood? Economist and author Matt Sekerke joins FUTUREPROOF. to challenge conventional wisdom on money, banking, and policy. In his new book Making Money Work (co-authored with Steve Hanke), he argues that fiat money is still king, the Fed doesn't have as much power as we think, and the obsession with decentralization is distracting us from deeper issues. This episode dives into the real causes of inflation, how trade deficits actually work, and what it would take to restore trust in our economic institutions.Topics Discussed:Why the Global Financial Crisis broke the systemWhat monetary neutrality means—and why we've forgotten itThe role of broad money supply in predicting recessionsThe myth of crypto's superiority over fiatThe misunderstood mechanics of trade deficitsHow Trump-era tariffs reshaped global financeWhy China can't yet lead a global financial systemThe future of central banking and financial trust
The Trump White House has enacted tariffs in the belief that other countries are “cheating” by enacting tariffs against US goods and “manipulating” their currencies. However, with the US dollar being the world's reserve currency, the US has engaged in dollar manipulation through inflation.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/mmt-and-us-history-redefining-chartalism
JPMorgan's Chief U.S. Economist reacts to a hotter than expected consumer confidence number and lays out the case for why he's pushing back his timeline for the resumption of Fed rate cuts. Then new data shows a surge in iPhone exports from India. But President Trump and Beijing won't be making further grow easy. What does CEO Tim Cook do next? We discuss. Plus the CEO of nuclear company Oklo inking a new partnership to expand its global footprint. The stock already up more than 130% this year. The CEO joins us for more on the deal and how Trump's nuclear executive order impacts the company.
APAC stocks traded mixed with price action contained amid a lack of major fresh catalysts and in the absence of a lead from Wall St.European equity futures indicate a slightly softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.3% on Monday.DXY is back above 99.00 and attempting to claw back yesterday's downside, EUR/USD is back on a 1.13 handle.US President Trump is said to be eyeing sanctions against Moscow this week, according to the WSJ.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK, EZ Sentiment, French CPI, US Durable Goods & Consumer Confidence, NBH Policy. Announcement, ECB's Villeroy & Fed's Kashkari, Supply from Netherlands, Italy & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Donald Trump is the first U.S. President in over 30 years who is seriously talking about reducing the country's budget deficit, trade deficit and yes, the national debt, which has ballooned to over $37 trillion. However, he must follow a specific formula, otherwise, it will end in tragedy, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today's edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words:” “Jermone Powell, the head of the Fed, will not lower interest rates even though there's been a good jobs report, a good inflation report, a good corporate profits report. GDP is gonna be evaluated, apparently, upward and there's been low energy cost. That mortgage is still 4.25% Fed rate to 4.5%. And that means mortgages are still 6.5%, 7%. And that housing market is slowing as a result. “So, you've got to get that down. And the way Trump has to do it is just two ways: Either cut the budget or raise taxes—which will strangle the economy—or continue the tax cuts. And hope two things: that the tax cuts—the extension—will prime the economy, along with cheap interest rates. And the question that we all have now: Is cutting taxes on tips, is cutting taxes on Social Security, is cutting taxes on first responder, etc.—all of which Trump has mentioned—is that really stimulus as opposed to, say, accelerated depreciation investment for businesses? I don't know the answer. But I do know, as a historian, that if you do not cut the deficit and the national debt and you have bond raters like Moody's or the Fed that will not lower interest rates, you're going to be in a crisis.”
May 26, 2025 – In today's Lifetime Planning segment of the Financial Sense Newshour, Jim Puplava and Bill Harris, author of The Investment Tax Guide: How to Slash Your Taxes, explore ten tax-saving strategies, from 401(k) optimization and asset...
Sixth Sunday of Easter; Sermon based on Acts 11:1-18. Preached at The First Presbyterian Church of Brooklyn (https://linktr.ee/firstchurchbrooklyn). Podcast subscription is available at https://cutt.ly/fpcb-sermons or Apple Podcasts (https://apple.co/4ccZPt6), Spotify, Amazon, Audible, Podcast Index....This item belongs to: audio/first-church-brooklyn-sermons.This item has files of the following types: Archive BitTorrent, Columbia Peaks, Item Tile, Metadata, PNG, Spectrogram, VBR MP3
The financial world stands at a critical juncture as Treasury yields approach 18-year highs and markets wrestle with conflicting economic signals. In this riveting conversation between macro strategists Jim Bianco and Jay Hatfield, hosted by Michael Gayed, we explore the counterintuitive relationship between Fed policy and market reactions that has left many investors scratching their heads.When the Fed cut rates last September, yields went up. This paradox forms the backdrop for a fascinating debate about whether higher rates might actually be the cure for higher rates. Hatfield advances his "Hopfield Rule"—the observation that housing starts falling below 1.1 million units have preceded 11 of 12 post-WWII recessions—suggesting we may be closer to economic trouble than many realize. Meanwhile, a 20% drop in oil prices this year has created what Hatfield calls "stag-deflation" rather than the stagflation many fear.The conversation takes a surprising turn when examining market influences. Bianco reveals that retail investors purchased $4.1 billion worth of stocks in just four hours following the Moody's downgrade, effectively stabilizing the market. This "do-it-yourself" investor revolution has fundamentally changed market dynamics, with retail traders wielding unprecedented influence despite focusing on just a handful of popular stocks and ETFs.Both experts offer nuanced perspectives on tariffs, inflation expectations, and the global bond sell-off. While the immediate outlook suggests continued volatility, they highlight that today's fixed income market structure offers significantly more favorable characteristics than during the initial rate hiking cycle of 2022-2023.Whether you're concerned about spiking Treasury yields, curious about the impact of retail traders, or trying to position your portfolio for what comes next, this discussion provides crucial insights from two of the sharpest minds in macro investing. Subscribe for more illuminating conversations that help you navigate these complex market conditions.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:
May 23, 2025 – Markets are choppy, headlines are driving wild swings, and policy shifts seem to dictate every move. But is this just noise, or are deeper trends at play? Mish Schneider of MarketGauge joins Jim Puplava to challenge bullish...
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is letting the UK know they need to move away from the green new scam and start drilling, Germany and New Zealand have begun making the move. Judge says tariffs are authorized by the emergency powers act. Trump places 50% tariffs on EU and is now pushing Apple to come back to the US. SC just gave Trump the ammunition to after the Fed. The Judiciary is destroying themselves in the eyes of the people in this country. The people realize that each Judge has a conflict of interest and their spouse is connected to the system in some way or another.If you look closely Trump is securing the midterms, he is dismantling it piece by piece to make it difficult and almost impossible to cheat in the midterms. Only when information [truth] becomes free [uncontrolled] will people awaken to the levers of control placed upon them. Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Judge Says Tariffs Are Authorized By Emergency Powers Act In Win For Trump You can buy a set of three pads of legal paper, “proudly made in the U.S.A.” by TOPS, for $16.64 (that is, $5.55 per pad). Or go to Simplified and get an imported two-pad set, currently marked down to $22 ($11 a pad). Simplified is not confident customers are willing to pay much more for its products, so when President Donald Trump put tariffs on China, it went to court to object. Emily Ley Paper, Inc., argues that the IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. Now a Florida judge who understands the limitations of jurisdiction, T. Kent Wetherell II, has agreed to move the case to the CIT. In the process of doing so, he also answered a key question that has national implications. Does the IEEPA allow the president to impose tariffs? Wetherell says yes. “IEEPA grants the President broad economic powers to deal with ‘any unusual and extraordinary [foreign] threat … to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States' on which a national emergency has been declared.” Wetherell spells out the historical legal cases in his order, which lead him to say, “IEEPA is a ‘law … providing for … tariffs.'” Source: thefederalist.com nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025. There is no Tariff if the product is built or manufactured in the United States. Thank you for your attention to this matter! Apple Stock Loses $100B After Trump's Tariff Threat I hope you wake up and realize that the Democrat party hates you, and Republicans want you to succeed https://twitter.com/NewsTreason/status/1925703414282903688 a “Government Agency” the fact that Trump can't fire the Chairman means that it's not It's PRIVATE. 138 Q !ITPb.qbhqo ID: gO/UntOB No.149063549 Nov 11 2017 23:32:49 (EST) The FED and the IRS FACT: US Federal Reserve is a privately-owned company, sitting on its very own patch of land, immune to the US laws. Q Political/Rights Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Brands Trump a Racist ‘Monster' After DOJ Probes His Anti-White Discrimination (VIDEO) Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has described President Trump as a “monster” for launching a federal investigatio...
On episode 193 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Richard Bernstein to discuss: the Big Beautiful Bill, the bond market, the Fed, the next recession, international stocks, the best uncertainty hedge, and much more! This episode is sponsored by Kraneshares. Read their recent article on the future of AI at: https://KraneShares.com/ai Sign up for The Compound Newsletter and never miss out: thecompoundnews.com/subscribe Instagram: instagram.com/thecompoundnews Twitter: twitter.com/thecompoundnews LinkedIn: linkedin.com/company/the-compound-media/ TikTok: tiktok.com/@thecompoundnews Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information. Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Today's Headlines: On Wednesday night, a shooting outside the Capitol Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C. left two dead following a multifaith event focused on Gaza. The suspect, Elias Rodriguez, reportedly told attendees he acted “for Palestine” before being arrested. The DOJ is weighing terrorism and hate crime charges. Separately, newly revealed Hamas documents confirm the October 7 attacks were aimed at sabotaging Israel-Saudi peace talks. Meanwhile, the House narrowly passed Trump's sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” extending 2017 tax cuts, cutting green energy incentives, and tightening welfare requirements. In education, the Trump administration moved to block Harvard from enrolling international students, potentially prompting legal action. The Supreme Court issued two major rulings—blocking Oklahoma's religious charter school due to a 4–4 tie, and granting Trump more power to fire independent agency members, though not the Fed chair. NOAA forecasts a severe hurricane season, and the FDA will limit COVID vaccine availability this fall to high-risk groups due to new testing rules. Lastly, Trump hosted a White House dinner for his $TRUMP coin holders—most of them foreign, including controversial crypto figure Justin Sun. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: AP News: Court papers say suspect in embassy killings declared, 'I did it for Palestine, I did it for Gaza' WSJ: Hamas Wanted to Torpedo Israel-Saudi Deal With Oct. 7 Attacks, Documents Reveal CNBC: Trump tax bill clears the House in a victory for Republicans, advances to the Senate NY Times: Trump Administration Says It Is Halting Harvard's Ability to Enroll International Students NY Times: Deadlocked Supreme Court Rejects Bid for Religious Charter School in Oklahoma NBC News: Supreme Court grants Trump request to fire independent agency members but says Federal Reserve is different NBC News: NOAA forecasts above-average Atlantic hurricane season NBC News: FDA says Covid vaccines likely not available for healthy kids and adults this fall WSJ: A Crypto Billionaire Who Feared Arrest in the U.S. Returns for Dinner With Trump Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Global trade tensions have eased after a steadying in U.S. policy shifts, leading our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson to make a more bullish case for the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I will discuss recent developments on tariffs and interest rates, and how it affects our 12 month view for U.S. Equities.It's Friday, May 23rd at 9am in New York.So, let's get after it.The reduction in the headline tariff rate on China from 145 percent to 30 percent extended the rally in stocks last week and should help to support both corporate and consumer confidence. More importantly, the 90-day détente came at a critical juncture, in my view, as a few more weeks of what was essentially a trade embargo would have likely led to a recession.Equity market volatility also subsided considerably amid the decline in trade policy uncertainty. In fact, both measures peaked well before the deal with China came together and are now back below where they were pre-Liberation Day. To me, this means trade headwinds have likely peaked in rate of change terms and are unlikely to return to such levels again. This would fit with the capitulatory price action we saw in early April with the average stock in the S&P 500 experiencing a 30 percent drawdown. In short, while the lagging hard data is likely to come in softer over the next coming months, the equity market already priced it in April. In the event of a recession that still arrives, we think the April lows will still hold, assuming it's a mild one with manageable risk to credit and funding markets.As further support for stocks, earnings revisions breadth appears to have bottomed. This indicator has leading properties in terms of the direction of earnings forecasts and is an important gauge of corporate confidence, in our view. The combination of upside momentum in revision breadth and last week's deal with China has placed the S&P 500 firmly back in our original pre-Liberation Day first half range of 5500-6100. Having said that, we think continued upward progress in earnings revisions breadth into positive territory will be necessary to break through 6100 in the near term, given the stickiness of 10-year Treasury yields.Amidst these developments, we released our mid -year outlook earlier this week and updated our base, bear and bull case targets for the S&P 500. In short, we effectively pushed out the timing of our original 6500 price target for the end of this year to 12 months from today. This is mainly due to a less dovish Fed and therefore higher 10-year Treasury yields than our economists and rates strategists expected at the end of last year. We also trimmed our EPS forecasts modestly to adjust for higher than expected tariff rates, at least for now.Looking ahead, we are more bullish today than we were at the end of last year given the growth negative policy announcements are now behind us and the Fed's next move is likely to be multiple cuts. In short, the rate of change on earnings revisions breadth, interest rates and policy changes from the administration are all now pointing in a positive direction, the opposite of six months ago and why I was not bullish on the first half of this year.The near-term risk for U.S. equities remains very overbought conditions and interest rates. With the Fed on hold due to lingering inflation concerns and Moody's downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt last Friday, 10-year Treasury yields are back above 4.5 percent; the level where the correlation between equities and rates tends to move back into negative territory. Ultimately, we think the Treasury and Fed have tools they can and will use to manage this risk. However, in the short term, this is a potential catalyst for the S&P 500 to take a break and even lead to a 5 percent correction. We would look to add equity risk into such a correction should it materialize given our bullish 6-12-month view.Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review; and if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
May 23, 2025 – Financial Sense interviews Merdith Whitney who warns that ‘over 52% of American households already went through a recession' and that the real economy is far more fragile than headline numbers suggest. She warns that unemployment...
Jeff Styles does what he does best - tell stories and helps others share their story - good or bad! This is a conversation/episode I hope everyone listens to AND shares! - Eight months after Hurricane Helene destroyed Bat Cave, N.C., residents are still struggling for shelter, drinking water, showers and working toilets. The "Big Guns" are gone (FEMA, Red Cross, etc...). No aid $, Fed, State, even County assistance isn't anywhere to be found. First nature...then human predators. They're pulling themselves up by their own muddy boot straps but they need help. Now! A podcast to shock your faith in the system but rebuild your faith in the best of humanity. ===== THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS: Vascular Institute of Chattanooga: https://www.vascularinstituteofchattanooga.com/ The Barn Nursery: https://www.barnnursery.com/ Optimize U Chattanooga: https://optimizeunow.com/chattanooga/ Guardian Investment Advisors: https://giaplantoday.com/ Alchemy Medspa and Wellness Center: http://www.alchemychattanooga.com/ Our House Studio: https://ourhousestudiosinc.com/ ALL THINGS JEFF STYLES: www.thejeffstyles.com PART OF THE NOOGA PODCAST NETWORK: www.noogapodcasts.com Please consider leaving us a review on Apple and giving us a share to your friends! This podcast is powered by ZenCast.fm
Phil Streible's take on Bitcoin? "Really incredible." He says the "euphoria" is there with open-interest reaching an all-time high alongside Bitcoin prices. He points to open-interest contracts up to $400k, which indicates bullish sentiment in the crypto asset. Phil believes the "floor for Bitcoin has been raised" looking at $70k-$80k as a thing of the past. He adds its tie to the Nasdaq, and says any recession risks could weigh on Bitcoin prices. Later, Phil looks at bond market action and the chances of a Fed rate cut later this year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Even with selling action surrounding Moody's U.S. credit rating downgrade and the 20-year bond auction, Maulik Bhansali says it was "orderly" and shouldn't ignite panic. He actually considers this a "kid in a candy store" moment for bond buyers. Mulik talks about where bond investors can take advantage of current levels. On the Fed, he expects Jerome Powell and company to stay patient on interest rate cuts.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Fed cash and futures pop higher; boxed beef higher on light volume; cash feeders slip.
From the far-right violence that broke out in the summer of 2024 to the hatred directed at Muslims in public life during the Gaza conflict, anti-Muslim racism is dangerously out-of-control. Fed by a network of media outlets, think tanks, commentators, and even the entertainment industry, Islamophobia not only passes the dinner table test but is also Britain's bigotry blind spot. For too many, Muslims don't matter. But that's not stopping Baroness Warsi. Having made her career by speaking up and standing out, she once again fearlessly urges us to change course, dismantle toxic bigotry, and stop the surge towards populism - before it's too late. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
US President Trump is pushing the EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties with US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions, according to FT.European and US equity futures are trading mixed and generally reside on either side of the unchanged mark.USD shunned once again after Thursday's attempted bounce; JPY benefits from hot core inflation data overnight; GBP little moved to firmer-than-expected Retail Sales.Bonds are higher as USTs look to claw back recent losses; some downside in Bunds following German GDP but proved fleeting.Crude remains subdued whilst metals benefit from the softer Dollar ahead of US-Iran talks at 12:00 BST / 07:00 EDT.Looking ahead, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers including ECB's Schnabel, BoE's Pill, Fed's Musalem & Cook.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly in the green albeit with gains in the region capped following the indecisive performance stateside.US President Trump and Chinese President Xi have not spoken since the Geneva agreement, according to CNN.US President Trump is pushing the EU to cut tariffs or face extra duties with US negotiators to tell Brussels they expect unilateral concessions, according to FT.European equity futures indicate a mildly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.6% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German GDP, UK Retail Sales, EZ Negotiated Wage Rates, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers including ECB's Lane & Schnabel, BoE's Pill, Fed's Musalem & Cook.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Our analysts Serena Tang and Seth Carpenter discuss Morgan Stanley's out-of-consensus view on U.S. exceptionalism, and how investors should position their portfolios given the current market uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: Today, we're going to pick up the conversation where we left it off, talking about our mid-year outlook; but this time I get to ask Serena the questions.It's Thursday, May 22nd at 10am in New York.Serena, we're back for part two of this podcast. Let's jump in where we left off. We've seen a lot of policy surprise in the last six months. We've had a big sell off in the beginning of April, in part inspired by all of this uncertainty.What are you telling clients? What do you think investors should be doing? How should they be positioning their portfolios in the current circumstances?Serena: So, we are recommending going overweight in U.S. equities and going overweight in core fixed income like U.S. treasuries and like investment grade corporate credit. And we have a very strong preference for U.S. over rest of the world assets, except the dollar. Now I think for us, the main message is that you have global growth slowing, which is what you talked about yesterday.But you know, risky assets can look past the low growth and do well, while treasuries can look forward to the many Fed cuts you guys are expecting in 2026 and rally. But if I look at valuations that does suggest equities and credit have completely, almost priced out, growth slowdown odds. Meaning that I think there is still some downside and we'd recommend quality across the board.Seth: In your judgment then, looking around the world at all the different asset classes, how well, or perhaps how poorly, are those asset classes priced for the sort of macro views that we were just discussing?Serena: So I think the market that's probably least priced for the slowing economy that you and your team have been forecasting is really in the government bond space. I think the prospect of a lot more Fed cuts than what is currently priced into the market will lower government bond yields, particularly starting in 2026.As you know, our rates team has a target of 3.45 percent for U.S. Treasury 10-year yields, and 2.6 percent for U.S. Treasury two-year yields. Meaning that we also get a steeper curve by this time next year. And this translates to more than 10 percent of total returns for U.S. Treasuries – very attractive; in large part because the markets aren't priced for the Fed scenario that you and your team are forecasting.Seth: Let me, then push a little bit on one of the things that I've been talking to clients about, or at least been asked about, which is the dollar. The role of the dollar? U.S. exceptionalism? Is it real?Serena: Yeah that's a great question because I think this is where we are the most out of consensus. If you've noticed, all of our views right now really line up as us being pretty constructive on U.S. dollar assets. Like at a time when everyone's still really debating the end of U.S. exceptionalism. And we really push back against the idea that foreign investors would or should abandon U.S. assets significantly.There are very few alternatives to U.S. dollar assets right now. I mean, like if you look at investible stock market cap, U.S. is nearly five times the size of the next biggest market, which is Europe. And in the fixed income side of things, more than half of liquid high grade fixed income paper is in U.S. dollars.Now, even if there were significant outflows from U.S. dollar assets, there are very few places that money can find a haven, safe or otherwise. This is not to say there won't ever be any other alternatives to U.S. dollar assets in the future. But that shift in market size takes time, which means that TINA -- there is no alternative -- remains a theme for now.Seth: That view on the dollar weakening from here, it's baked into my team's economic forecast. It's baked into the strategy team's forecast across research. So then let me take it one step forward. What does all this mean about portfolio preferences, your recommendation for clients when when they're investing in assets that are not U.S. dollar denominated.Serena: You are right. I mean, if there's one U.S. asset that we just like, it's the U.S. dollar. So, you know, over the next 12 months we expect key factors, which drove the dollar strength. You know, positive growth, yield differentials relative to other G10 economies. Those factors will fade substantially. And we also think because of the political uncertainty in the U.S. currency hedging ratios on exposure to U.S. assets may increase, which could further pressure the U.S. dollar. So, our FX team sees euro/dollar at 1.25 and dollar/yen at 1.30 by the second quarter of 2026.Which means that we're really recommending non-U.S. dollar investors to buy U.S. stocks and fixed income on an FX hedge basis.Seth: If we look forward but focus just on the next, call it three to six months; what asset classes, or if you want, what regions around the world are best positioned, and what would you say to investors?Serena: So, you're right. I think there is a big difference between what we like over the next three to six months versus what we like over the next 12 months. Because if I look at U.S. equities and U.S. government bonds, both of which we're overweight on most of the gains, probably won't happen until the first half of next year because you have to have U.S. equities really feeling the tailwind of dollar weakness. And you need to have U.S. government bond investors to grow more confident that we will get all of those Fed cuts next year.What we do like over the next three to six months and feel pretty highly convicted on is really U.S. investment grade corporate credit, which we think can, you know, do well in the second half of this year and do well in the first half of next year.Seth: But then let's take a step back [be]cause I think investors around the world are wrestling with a lot of the same issues. They're talking to, you know, strategists like us at lots of different places. What would you say are our most out of consensus views right now?Serena: I think we're pretty out of consensus on our preference for U.S. and U.S. dollar assets. As I mentioned, there was still a huge debate on the end of U.S. exceptionalism. Now the other place where I think it's notable is we're much more bullish on U.S. treasuries than what's being priced into markets and where consensus is. And I think that's really been driven by your economics team being much more convicted on many Fed cuts in 2026.And the last thing I would point out here is, again, we're more bearish than consensus on the dollar. If I look at euro/dollar, if I look at dollar/yen, the kind of appreciation we're forecasting for at around through 10 percent, is higher than I think what most investors are expecting at the moment.Now back to Seth. Given all of the uncertainty around U.S. fiscal, trade, and industrial policy, what indicators are you watching to assess whether global growth is becoming more fragile or more resilient?Seth: Yeah, it's a great question. It's always difficult to monitor in real time how things are going, especially with these sorts of shocks. We are looking at a bunch of the shipping data to see how trade flows are going. There was clearly some front-running into the United States of imports to try to get ahead of tariffs. There's got to be some payback for that. I think the question becomes where do we settle in when it comes to trade?I'm going to be looking in the U.S. at the labor market to see signs of reduced demand for labor. But also try to pay attention to what's going on with the supply of labor from immigration restriction. And then there are all the normal indicators about spending, especially consumer spending. Consumer spending tends to drive a lot of the big developed market economies around the world and how well that holds up or doesn't. That's going to be key to the overall outlook.Serena: Thank you so much, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Seth: Serena, I could talk to you all day.Serena: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
President Trump is taking the national and global establishment. Reports claim Elon Musk thinks it's a good idea for former Congressman Ron Paul, author of "End the Fed," to lead an audit team at DOGE, with a focus on examining the Federal Reserve. We will analyze Satan's Master Plan for the world on this edition of the Endtime Show! --------------- 📚: Check out Jerusalem Prophecy College Online for less than $60 per course: https://jerusalemprophecycollege.com 📱: It's never been easier to understand. Stream Only Source and access exclusive content: https://watch.osn.tv/browse ⭐️: Birch Gold: Claim your free info kit on gold: https://www.birchgold.com/endtime ☕️: First Cup Coffee: use code ENDTIME to get 10% off: https://www.firstcup.com 💵: American Financing: Begin saving today: https://www.americanfinancing.net/endtime Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
May 22, 2025 – Both gold and silver have seen strong moves this year. Gold is up 25% year-to-date at a little over $3,300 an ounce and silver is up 14% at just over $33 an ounce. Given ongoing concerns over US debt and geopolitical uncertainty...
On today's show we are talking about the risk premium being attached to US sovereign debt and how this has the potential to destabilize real estate markets for all US investors. We are accustomed to thinking that the Fed sets the interest rate. But the truth is that the Fed only sets one interest rate. That is the Fed Funds rate that banks use to lend to each other. The downgrade of the US debt by Moody's debt rating agency last Friday was a reflection of the government's persistent failure to adopt measures that would “reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” Moody's was the third bond rating agency to downgrade the US sovereign debt after S&P and Fitch downgraded the US debt in August of 2023. It's not the downgrade per se that is the problem. The market makes its own determination and does not just look at what the bond rating agencies have to say.Spending is heading higher, regardless of who is in the White House. The demographic impact on entitlement programs is unavoidable. The population is aging and when the social security program was launched, there were 16.5 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. Today there are 2.71 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. By the mid 2030's, that number is expected to fall to 2.3 people working for every one person collecting. The math doesn't fund the liabilities. The current White House was elected on the promise of the economy and of fiscal responsibility. The latest budget bill that had wound its way through the Congress shows an increase in spending and a widening budget deficit. Despite desires to cut government waste and abuse, the impact seems somewhat muted. The bond market is clearly seeing significant risk to the ballooning US sovereign debt. This week's auction in new US Treasuries did not go well. The appetite for new paper from the US government was muted and the price that was bid for the 30 year was so low that the yield on the 30 year is now above 5%. The 30 year Treasury is a long denomination bond and its yield moves very slowly. To have the price for that bond drop so sharply in a matter of days has definitely rattled markets. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
Our podcast show being released today will focus on S. 919, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U. S. Stablecoins Act of 2025 or GENIUS Act which was reported out of the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee by a bipartisan vote of 18-6. The bill would establish a regime to regulate stablecoins. Our guest today, Professor Art Wilmarth of George Washington University School of Law, published an op-ed on March 6 in the American Banker in which he wrote that the “..bill would allow stablecoins, which are volatile deposit-like instruments, to be offered to the public without the essential protections provided by federal deposit insurance and other regulatory safeguards regarding banks that are insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. By placing the federal government's imprimatur on poorly regulated and unstable stablecoins, the …bill would greatly increase the probability that future runs on stablecoins would trigger systemic crises requiring costly federal bailouts to avoid devastating injuries to our financial system and economy.” Our podcast show was designed to be of interest to both crypto neophytes and experts. During this podcast, we explore the following issues: 1. What are stablecoins, and what are their present and potential use cases? 2. How do stablecoins differ from other types of crypto like bitcoin? 3. How many companies issue stablecoins today? 4. What is the total volume in dollars of outstanding stablecoins? Has it been growing? Do all stablecoin issuers also issue other types of crypto? 5. Do any banks issue stablecoins? If not, why not? 6. Are there any federal or state regulations that apply to stablecoins today? What about state money transmitter laws? 7. Do stablecoins provide a better way to improve the speed and reliability of payments compared to other ways of making payments? Do they offer any benefits that are NOT currently offered by tokenized bank deposits and the instant payment and settlement services offered by FedNow and the Clearing House's Real Time Payment Network? How do stablecoins on public blockchains compare to tokenized deposits held on private electronic bank ledgers, in terms of safety, reliability, and efficiency. 8. Professor Wilmarth describes a typical stablecoin transaction and the fact that stablecoin issuers often pay interest on stablecoins that are the equivalent of money market mutual funds and way more than banks pay on passbook or statement savings accounts or checking accounts. 9. How do stablecoin issuers generate revenue? 10. What are the potential risks of stablecoins, especially if they can be offered by nonbanks and are not covered by federal deposit insurance? Would they present the same risks as money market funds, which the Fed and Treasury bailed out in 2008 and again in 2020? Have there been any examples of these risks being realized? Have there been any failures? What happens if a stablecoin issuer fails? Does bankruptcy law (as amended by the GENIUS Act), provide a feasible process for dealing with failures of stablecoin issuers? If nonbank stablecoin issuers become large financial institutions and get into serious trouble, would the federal government be able to finance another series of massive bailouts similar to those of 2007-09 and 2020-21 without risking a crisis in the Treasury bond market and/or another surge of inflation? 11. Will Big Tech firms issuing stablecoins be able to dominate our banking system and economy and would that necessarily be a bad thing? 12. Which firms are likely to be the most significant issuers of stablecoins if nonbanks are allowed to conduct that activity? If Big Tech firms are allowed to offer stablecoins, could they use stablecoins to offer banking services and eventually dominate the banking industry? What should we learn from China's experience with Ant Financial Group (Alipay) and Tencent (WeChat Pay), China's two largest Big Tech firms, which became dominant providers of financial services to Chinese consumers and households? 13. We then discussed the so-called GENIUS ACT which the Senate Banking Committee passed by an 18-6 bipartisan vote on March 13. What are the major features of the Act? 14. What are your major concerns about the bill? 15. What would the stablecoin market look like if Congress passed the GENIUS Act in the form that it was approved by the Senate Banking Committee? 16. Should we require all issuers and distributors of stablecoins to be FDIC-insured banks? Why do you believe that federal banking laws governing FDIC-insured banks provide a far better approach for regulating issuers of stablecoins? [After the recording of this podcast, the bill ran into rough sledding on the floor for a couple of weeks with some Senators, like Senator Elizabeth Warren, raising consumer protection issues similar to those raised by Professor Wilmarth and other Senators raising concerns about President Trump's family substantially benefiting from enactment of the bill. However, on May 19, after negotiations among Senate Democrats and Republicans to amend the Bill to add consumer protections, limits on tech companies issuing stablecoins and ethics standards for special government employees, like Elon Musk, the Bill advanced on a bipartisan procedural vote to prevent filibustering in the Senate, 66-32, making it likely that the Bill will pass the Senate by a super-majority vote. The fate of the Bill in the House is less certain.] Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel and formerly the Chair for 25 years of the Consumer Financial Services, hosted the podcast show.
Dive into the recent events impacting fixed income markets with Douglas Gimple. Explore topics including the Fed, tariffs and inflation. (24 min podcast)
Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena: And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.
U.S. credit got downgraded. Fed policy expectations are flipping. And Coinbase hit the S&P 500 (while also being extorted). But what does all of this mean for crypto? On this week's Bits + Bips, James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, Ram Ahluwalia, and Noelle Acheson break down: Why the Moody's downgrade doesn't mean much for markets Whether Fed rate cuts are now further off than expected Why Alex says Coinbase is a “horrible product” despite S&P inclusion How stablecoins tie into U.S. geopolitical strategy Whether Circle should sell to Coinbase And what the altcoin ETF delay really tells us Plus: unemployment, yield curve control, the “Consensus vibes,” and Ram's wild anecdote about workers gaming unemployment benefits. Bitwise James Seyffart, Research Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence Alex Kruger, Founder of Asgard Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida Noelle Acheson, Author of the “Crypto Is Macro Now” Newsletter Macro Reuters: Moody's downgrade intensifies investor worry about US fiscal path USNews: Trump Tells Walmart to 'Eat the Tariffs' Instead of Raising Prices Coinbase Unchained: How the Attack on Coinbase Shows the Dangers of Centralized Exchanges Fortune: Circle pursues IPO—but talks with Coinbase and Ripple could mean a sale, sources say CNBC: Coinbase joining S&P 500, replacing Discover Financial Stablecoin bill Unchained: Stablecoin Bill Passes Key Hurdle: Dems Join GOP to Deliver a Crypto Win Timestamps:
In this episode, we examine the alarming signals pointing to an economic downturn despite the Fed's reassurances. Burgeoning bankruptcies, plummeting consumer confidence, and a sharp decline in home sales underscore the urgency of taking action. The narrative is illustrated through Natalie's failure to act quickly on a great off-market real estate deal, emphasizing the need for speed and decisiveness. The episode introduces the 'Quick and Dirty Deal Decider' tool to streamline real estate investment decisions swiftly. Listeners are advised to swiftly secure income-producing properties to mitigate economic uncertainties and capitalize on current market dynamics. BUT BEFORE THAT, hear the news about 30-year mortgage future! Quick n' Dirty Deal Decider: https://chatgpt.com/g/g-68192fc883ec8191b4182b9c12650e8b-epic-quick-n-dirty-deal-decider Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
China tariffs are causing big problems right now. Today we talk about the recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly the temporary pause in tariffs and the broader implications for investor sentiment and economic narratives. The fear over supply chain disruptions quickly faded once tariff discussions resumed—even though actual inventory issues remained unresolved. We also analyzed a new Republican tax bill, highlighting key proposals like eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, allowing deductions for car loan interest, and introducing a “MEGA account” to support education, home buying, and small business loans. We discuss... Trump temporarily paused tariffs on China for 90 days, reducing tensions and prompting speculation on political motives. Despite ongoing inventory lags, public and media attention has waned following the tariff pause announcement. People often react to headlines and political gestures without examining the actual impact or facts on the ground. Wall Street quickly shifted from fear to optimism despite unresolved issues, illustrating emotional market swings. Consumer sentiment has rapidly reversed from bearish to bullish, reflecting how quickly perception can change. Buffett's principle of being fearful when others are greedy remains relevant in today's sentiment-driven market. The proposed GOP tax bill includes a “No Tax on Tips” provision, widely supported as fair for service workers. A new “MEGA Account” is proposed to help with education, small business loans, and first-time homebuyer costs. The IRS uses audits not primarily to collect money but to scare people into compliance, as stated by an IRS official. Low-income taxpayers are disproportionately audited due to earned income tax credit claims. Wealthy individuals can afford legal support, making IRS audits less impactful for them compared to lower earners. The U.S. housing market is now at its most unaffordable level in recorded history. Mortgage rates are back to their historical average and unlikely to drop meaningfully. The Fed's long-term involvement in mortgage-backed securities has distorted the housing market. Interest rates remain high, and the Fed has yet to significantly cut, raising questions about the rationale for past rate cuts. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/china-tariffs-are-causing-big-problems-713
May 21, 2025 – Today on FS Insider, Laurent Lequeu, author of Macro Butler, discusses soaring US debt refinancing needs—$7T in 2025—forcing Treasury yields higher amid persistent “velcro” inflation and waning foreign demand, especially post-Trump trade shifts...
What is quantitative modeling and what does it have to do with real estate investing? More than most people realize. In this episode, Jeannette Friedrich is joined by finance professor and former Federal Reserve fellow David Leather to break down the world of quantitative modeling - what it is, how it evolved, and why real estate investors should be paying closer attention to it in 2025 and beyond. From office-to-residential conversions to interest rate predictions, this conversation offers a smarter way to think about risk, returns, and real estate strategy. Guest: David Leather, Assistant Professor of Finance & Real Estate, Chapman University Key Takeaways: What quant modeling really means Learn how quantitative finance evolved and how it applies to modeling asset prices, portfolios, and even real estate cap rates in a changing economy. How real estate is catching up Why improved data availability is making it possible (and necessary) to apply quant techniques in real estate decision-making. The future of office buildings What signals could indicate a return-to-office trend, and the economic and architectural hurdles behind converting office assets to multifamily housing. Affordable housing strategies How spatially targeted LIHTC policy could be optimized—and why more conversions aren't happening without government support. Refinancing in a tough lending environment Practical advice for investors with development loans maturing in the next few years—and the risks of waiting too long to refinance. Reading the Fed and the rates What investors should track to anticipate shifts in interest rate policy and private debt market conditions. A practical alternative to homeownership Why REITs may be a smarter investment than owning a home in high-cost markets like Southern California. This episode is for any investor who wants to think more rigorously—and more strategically—about what drives real estate performance today. Timestamps 00:00 Introduction to Quant Modeling 00:18 Meet David Leather: Finance and Real Estate Expert 01:29 Understanding Quantitative Modeling in Real Estate 05:18 The Office Sector and Real Estate Conversions 09:03 Affordable Housing and Policy Recommendations 19:15 Lightning Round and Final Thoughts Are you REady2Scale Your Multifamily Investments? Learn more about growing your wealth, strengthening your portfolio, and scaling to the next level at www.bluelake-capital.com. Credits Producer: Blue Lake Capital Strategist: Syed Mahmood Editor: Emma Walker Opening music: Pomplamoose *
Stupid News 5-21-2025 8am …Oops, I took out a Kidney instead of your Spleen …They don't waste time dealing with Squatters in Australia …He Wanted His Romantic Rival Killed and Fed to Pigs
Gold & Silver Rally Again, As US Considers MORE Sanctions On Russia Just in case the current economic arrangement wasn't already fragile enough, the US is again considering additional sanctions on Russia. Which led the central banks to start setting records for how much gold they've been buying ever since. And one can only imagine how that trend would look if there are further sanctions. But that's what we take a look at in today's show, as well as some rising long-term interest rates, and how that will affect the gold and silver markets. So to find out more, click to watch this video now! - To read about Jerome Powell and the Fed telegraphing that they're going to raise the Fed's 2% inflation mandate go to: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/p/jerome-powell-telegraphs-that-the To read Fortuna Mining's sustainability report go to: https://fortunamining.com/news/fortuna-publishes-its-2024-sustainability-report/ To learn about gold alchemy go to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92NnQ5e8Xuw - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Mining, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-silver-mines/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture British PM is now betraying the country, he is making huge concessions with the European Union, his days are numbered. China cuts the interest rate, the Fed is still in a holding pattern, see what is happening. D's lost the rich are getting the tax cut narrative. Investors are buying gold funds. The [DS]/fake news is now trying to pivot away from Biden. The problem is they do not have the narrative and the people are now asking a lot of questions of who was really running the country. Kash Patel and Dan Bongino are putting a information to smoke the sleepers out. Scavino in the last couple of days has pushed the military is the only way, why? Think statute of limitations, under civil law most are 5 years, under military most are unlimited. Economy Leftist British PM Keir Starmer BETRAYS Brexit, Causes Alarm by Signing Agreement With European Union Making HUGE Concessions Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has just betrayed Brexit – and may have dealt a death blow to the island's fishing industry. There's widespread alarm over the terms of the ‘reset' deal with the European Union and the huge concessions that he made. At a press conference alongside European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, Keir Starmer says he is ‘moving on' from ‘Brexit battles', and that this deal will put Britain ‘back on the world stage'. Daily Mail reported: https://twitter.com/NicholasLissack/status/1924372295377662009?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1924372295377662009%7Ctwgr%5E7c2d31a35626b522c5601d813473a16e3f834205%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F05%2Fleftist-british-pm-keir-starmer-betrays-brexit-causes%2F (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/darrengrimes_/status/1924436308941791427?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1924436308941791427%7Ctwgr%5E7c2d31a35626b522c5601d813473a16e3f834205%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F05%2Fleftist-british-pm-keir-starmer-betrays-brexit-causes%2F Source: thegatewaypundit.com China cuts key lending rates to record lows to counter the impact of US tariffs China's central bank has cut its key lending rates to record lows to bolster the economy and cushion the impact of escalating trade tensions with the United States. The move follows a sweeping stimulus package announced earlier this month. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered its benchmark lending rates for the first time in seven months as part of ongoing efforts to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on its economy. The central bank cut the 1-year and 5-year loan prime rates (LPR) by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5%, Source: euronews.com US Federal Reserve officials signal rates likely to stay on hold until at least September The central bank's next three meetings are in June, July and September https://twitter.com/MarketsDotNews/status/1924709190376820961 https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1924818332550639622 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1924816670285054349 Trump tax bill will expire on December 31, 2025. and taxes will go up No,
Live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit, our analysts Chiwoong Lee and Sho Nakazawa discuss their outlook for the Japanese economy and stock market in light of the country's evolving trade partnerships with the U.S. and China.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Lee-san: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chiwoong Lee, Principal Global Economist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Nakazawa-san: And I'm Sho Nakazawa, Japan Equity Strategist at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities.Lee-san: Today we're coming to you live from the Morgan Stanley Japan Summit in Tokyo. And we'll be sharing our views on Japan in the context of global economic growth. We will also focus on Japan's position vis-à-vis its two largest trading partners, the U.S. and China.It's Tuesday, May 20, at 3pm in Tokyo.Lee-san: Nakazawa-san, you and I both have been talking with a large number of clients here at the summit. Based on your conversations, what issues are most top of mind right now?Nakazawa-san: There are many inquiries about how to position because of the uncertainty of U.S. trade policy and the investment strategy for governance reform. These are both catalysts for Japan. And in Japan, there are multiple governance investment angles, with increasing interest in the removal of parent-child listings, which is when a parent company and a subsidiary company are both listed on an exchange. This reform [would] remove the subsidiaries. So, clients are very focused on who will be the next candidate for the removal of a parent-child listing.And what are you hearing from clients on your side, Lee-san?Lee-san: I would say the most frequent questions we received were regarding the Trump administration's policies, of course. While the reciprocal tariffs have been somewhat relaxed compared to the initial announcements, they still remain very high; and there was a strong focus on their negative impact on the U.S. economy and the global economy, including Japan. Of course, external demand is critical for Japanese economy, but when we pointed out the resilience of domestic demand, many investors seemed to agree with that view.Nakazawa-san: How do investors' views square with your outlook for the global economy over the rest of the year?Lee-san: Well, there was broad consensus that tariffs and policy uncertainty are negatively affecting trade and investment activities across countries. In particular, there is concern about the impact on investment. As Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke wrote in his papers in [the] 1980s, uncertainty tends to delay investment decisions. However, I got the impression that views varied on just how sensitive investment behavior is to this uncertainty.Nakazawa-san: How significant are U.S. tariffs on global economy including Japan both near-term and longer-term?Lee-san: The negative effects on the global economy through trade and investment are certainly important, but the most critical issue is the impact on the U.S. economy. Tariffs essentially act as a tax burden on U.S. consumers and businesses.For example, in 2018, there was some impact on prices, but the more significant effect was on business production and employment. Now, with even higher tariff rates, the impact on inflation and economic activity is expected to be even greater. Given the inflationary pressures from tariffs, we believe the Fed will find it difficult to cut rates in 2025. On the other hand, once it becomes feasible, likely in 2026, we anticipate the Fed will need to implement substantial rate cuts.Lee-san: So, Nakazawa-san, how has the Japanese stock market reacted to U.S. tariffs?Nakazawa-san: Investors positioning have skewed sharply to domestic-oriented non-manufacturing sectors since the U.S. government's announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2nd. Tariff talks with some nations have achieved some progress at this stage, spurring buybacks of export-oriented manufacturer shares. However, the screening by our analysts of the cumulative surplus returns against Japan's TOPIX index for around 500 stocks in their coverage universe, divided into stocks relatively vulnerable to tariff effects and those less impacted, finds a continued poor performance at the former. We believe it is important to enhance the portfolio's robustness by revising sector skews in accordance with any progress in the trade talks and adjusting long/short positioning with the sectors in line with the impact of the tariffs.Lee-san: I see. You recently revised your Topix index target, right. Can you quickly walk us through your call?Nakazawa-san：Yes, of course. We recently revised down our base case TOPIX target for end-2025 from 3,000 to 2,600. This revision was considered by several key factors: So first, our Japan economics team revised down its Japanese nominal growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.3%, reflecting implementation of reciprocal tariffs and lower growth forecasts for the U.S., China, and Europe. Second, our FX team lowered its USD/JPY target from 145 to 135 due to the risk of U.S. hard data taking a marked turn for the worse. The timing aligns with growing uncertainty on the business environment, which may lead firms to manage cash allocation more cautiously. So, this year might be a bit challenging for Japanese equities that I recommend staying defensive positioning with defensive non-manufacturing sectors overall.Nakazawa-san: And given tariff risks, do you see a change in the Bank of Japan's rate path for the rest of the year?Lee-san: Yeah well, external demand is a very important driver of Japanese economy. Even if tariffs on Japan do not rise significantly, auto tariffs, for example, remain in place and cannot be ignored. The earnings deterioration among export-oriented companies, especially in the auto sector, will take time for the Bank of Japan to assess in terms of its impact on winter bonuses and next spring's wage growth. If trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries including Japan make major progress by summer, a rate hike in the fall could be a risk scenario. However, our Japan teams' base case remains that the policy rate will be unchanged through 2026.Lee-san: How is the Japanese yen faring relative to the U.S. dollar, and how does it impact the Japanese stock market, Nakazawa-san?Nakazawa-san：I would say USD/JPY is not only driver for Japanese equities. Of course, USD/JPY still plays a key role in earnings, as our regression model suggests a 1% higher USD/JPY lifting TOPIX 0.5% on average. But this sensitivity has trended down over the past decade. A structural reason is that as value chain building close to final demand locations has lifted overseas production ratios, which implies continuous efforts of Japanese corporate optimizing global supply chain.That said, from sector allocation perspective, sectors showing greater resilience include domestic demand-driven sectors, such as foods, construction & materials, IT & services/others, transportation & logistics, and retails.Nakazawa-san: And finally, the trade relationship between Japan and China is one of the largest trading partnerships in the world. Are U.S. tariffs impacting this partnership in any way?Lee-san: That's a very difficult question, I have to say, but I think there are multiple angles to consider. Geopolitical risk remains to be a key focus, and in terms of the military alliance, Japan-U.S. relationships have been intact. At the same time, Japan faces increased pressure to meet U.S. demands. That said, Japan has been taking steps such as strengthening semiconductor manufacturing and increasing defense spending, so I believe there is a multifaceted evaluation which is necessary.Lee-san: That said, I think it's time to head back to the conference. Nakazawa-san, thanks for taking the time to talk.Nakazawa-san: Great speaking with you, Lee-san.Lee-san: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Dividend Cafe: Market Update and Economic Insights - May 20 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel discusses the current state of the markets on a quiet economic day. After a six-day positive streak, the S&P 500 saw a slight decline, along with the Dow and NASDAQ. Key economic indicators such as the 10-year yield, which closed at 4.48%, and the yield curve spread are examined. Sitel dives into impressive Q1 earnings growth, better-than-expected guidance, and the implications of policy and populist sentiment on markets. Additionally, he addresses the wealth divide exacerbated by rising asset values and the role of the Fed in market stability, emphasizing its significant impact on monetary policy and capital markets efficiency. Viewer questions about the relevance of Fed Futures and market speculation are also explored. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:10 Earnings and Economic Sentiment 02:33 Wealth Divide and Economic Disparity 04:37 Fed Futures and Monetary Policy 06:29 Conclusion and Viewer Engagement Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
In the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges, former Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida and the Hoover Institution's John Cochrane discuss whether the Fed's independence is in jeopardy. This episode explores the latest Top of Mind report. This episode was recorded on April 30, May 6, and May 19, 2025. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Natalie Brunell is joined by renowned economist and monetary scholar Judy Shelton, former advisor to President Trump and outspoken advocate for sound money. Judy shares her deep insights on the Federal Reserve, gold-backed monetary policy, and the future of economic stability in the U.S. and abroad. She also reflects on her controversial Fed nomination, the collapse of Bretton Woods, and her views on Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset. Topics discussed include: Why Judy Shelton believes the Fed is unaccountable and whether it can be reformed The case for returning to sound money principles Her proposal for gold-backed U.S. Treasury bonds How marking gold to market could address national debt The collapse of the Bretton Woods system and lessons from it Currency manipulation, trade imbalances, and tariffs The rise of Bitcoin and how it compares to gold Why her Fed nomination was blocked and what it revealed The future of the dollar as a global reserve currency How alternative currencies like Bitcoin could restore market integrity ---- This interview provides a powerful look at fixing or replacing today's broken monetary system. Guest Bio: Judy Shelton is a former economic advisor to President Trump, and a Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and the author of "Good as Gold: How to Unleash the Power of Sound Money." She is known for her advocacy for a return to the gold standard, and for her criticisms of the Federal Reserve. President Trump nominated Shelton to the Fed in 2019. She holds a Ph.D. in business administration, with an emphasis on finance and international economics, from the University of Utah. Follow Judy on X at https://x.com/judyshel ---- Coin Stories is powered by Bitwise. Bitwise has over $10B in client assets, 32 investment products, and a team of 100+ employees across the U.S. and Europe, all solely focused on Bitcoin and digital assets since 2017. Learn more at https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product and Event Links: Secure your Bitcoin with collaborative custody and set up your inheritance plan with Casa: https://www.casa.io/natalie Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Get 5000 sats when you download using this link and promo code COINSTORIES10: https://www.speed.app/sweepstakes-promocode/ Safely self-custody your Bitcoin with Coinkite and the ColdCard Wallet. Get 5% off: https://store.coinkite.com/promo/COINSTORIES River is where I DCA weekly and buy Bitcoin with the lowest fees in the industry: https://partner.river.com/natalie Earn 2% back in Bitcoin on all your purchases with the Gemini credit card: https://www.gemini.com/natalie Bitcoin 2025 is heading to Las Vegas May 27-29th! Join me for my 4th Annual Women of Bitcoin Brunch! Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/affiliate/hodl/event/bitcoin-2025 Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing
"The President has invoked the Alien Enemies Act (AEA), Rev. Stat. §4067, 50 U. S. C. §21, to remove Venezuelan nationals who are members of Tren de Aragua (TdA), a designated foreign terrorist organization. See Presidential Proclamation No. 10903, 90 Fed. Reg. 13033 (2025). Applicants are two detainees identified as members of TdA and a putative class of similarly situated detainees in the Northern District of Texas. All of the alleged TdA members in the putative class are currently being held in U. S. detention facilities. In the application before the Court, the detainees seek injunctive relief against summary removal under the AEA." Follow AG Substack|MuellershewroteBlueSky|@muellershewroteAndrew McCabe isn't on social media, but you can buy his book The ThreatThe Threat: How the FBI Protects America in the Age of Terror and TrumpWe would like to know more about our listeners. Please participate in this brief surveyListener Survey and CommentsThis Show is Available Ad-Free And Early For Patreon and Supercast Supporters at the Justice Enforcers level and above:https://dailybeans.supercast.techOrhttps://patreon.com/thedailybeansOr when you subscribe on Apple Podcastshttps://apple.co/3YNpW3P
Markets have reacted positively to the U.S.-China détente in tariffs. Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Vishy Tirupattur, digs into the rallies to better understand potential longer-term outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today I'll talk about the impact of last week's 90-day pause in the reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China, and the impact on the economy and markets.It's Monday, May 19th at 11am in New York.Market response to last Monday's announcement has been resoundingly positive. The S&P 500 was up 4.5 percent in the first four days since the announcement and the year-to-date returns are back in the black after Liberation Day drove steep declines in April.Credit markets have also rallied, notably with the investment grade spreads tightening by over 10 basis points and high yield spreads by over 50 basis points. And the Treasury market took out 50 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, leaving market implied rate cuts by the end of 2026 at around 100 basis points.While these moves across markets are significant, it is really important to put them into perspective and tease out what this detente in trade tensions implies. And more importantly, what it does not imply.On the positive side, we think that the de-escalation reduces the risk of a sudden stop in trade volumes and a sharp rise in unemployment rate. While this is clearly just a truce and we don't know exactly where the tariffs between the two largest economies in the world will end up, it seems reasonable to infer that tariffs in the vicinity of 125 percent or 145 percent are substantially less likely now. Overall, the probability of a U.S. recession, therefore, has fallen on the margin.To be clear, a recession during 2025 was never really our base case. But the de-escalation shifts risks in the direction of a little more growth, a little less inflation, and keeps unemployment rate at near current levels. If the world before Liberation Day was bimodal and close to a coin toss; it is still bimodal, but skewed towards an expansion, not contraction. Since we were in the expansion mode to begin with, this detente gives us greater comfort in our baseline outlook and strengthens our conviction that the Fed will remain on hold for rest of the year.The positive vibes from Geneva not withstanding, we would stress that it is far from clear that the 90-day pause is an uncertainty clearing event. Trade tensions are likely to remain elevated. The administration is still investigating tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, copper, and other products. It is also unclear if the template of negotiations between the U.S. and China can work for other regions, especially Europe. Even if U.S. tariffs on imports from China and the rest of the world end up roughly around the current levels, they would still be about four times higher than the levels at the start of the year.This means inflation should continue to move higher into year end, with the surge that peaks in the third quarter. While the impulse inflation from tariffs is likely to be smaller, it still is coming. Likewise, higher tariffs will dampen growth even though recession will continue to be avoided.For risk markets, we think that the detente has reduced the risk of substantial drawdowns. While policy uncertainty about the ultimate level of tariff remains, a return to last month's mind-boggling volatility driven by trade policy is probably behind us. So, it's unlikely that we will see markets revisiting the lows of April in the near term.For credit markets, a lower likelihood of recession is indeed welcome news, especially considering the current strong credit fundamentals. With the market taking out a couple of rate cuts, the all in yields for credit remain in the range to sustain the demand for yield buyers such as insurance companies.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [CB] is pushing that tariffs are going to raise prices, it hasn't happened yet so they will try to show the people by raising prices, Trump is calling them out on this. The Fed has been in a holding pattern, Moody's just downgraded the US credit rating, picture becoming clearer. The big beautiful bill will destroy the fake news/D's narrative. Economic boomerang. Trump is exposing the entire [DS] system, the people need to see this. The system is fighting against Trump and We The People every step of the way. Trump needed the people to see this if we were going to go to the next phase, the people needed to approve Trumps next actions. Trump is now bringing in the Clinton/Obama angle. Did Trump just set the stage that all roads lead to Obama? Scavino sends message that the military might be the only way. Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Foreign Investors Loaded Up on Treasury Securities in March Despite all the Turmoil in the Media And in April, their purchases of long-term securities at Treasury auctions increased. Buying US Treasury securities was all the rage among foreign investors in March, despite whatever turmoil there was in the media. All foreign investors combined, from central banks to private investors, increased their holdings of Treasury securities by $233 billion in March from February, and by $942 billion over the past 12 months, to a record $9.05 trillion (red in the chart). The majority of what they bought were long-term Treasury securities, which increased by $133 billion to a record $7.63 trillion, according to data by the Treasury Department Friday afternoon (blue in the chart). The buying was across the major holders, except for China and Hong Kong combined, and for Ireland. Of particular note: Canada's holdings of Treasury securities spiked majestically in February and March, despite the tariffs and the ultra-sour mood in Canada about US-anything. Increases in March, and total Treasury holdings: United Kingdom: +$29 billion, to $779 billion Luxembourg: unchanged, at $412 billion Cayman Islands: +$37 billion to $455 billion Ireland: -10 billion to $329 billion Belgium: +$7 billion to $402 billion Switzerland: +$21 billion to $312 billion. Source: wolfstreet.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1923470842089902157 Moody's downgrade of US rating may not dent stock markets much: Analysts Global financial markets may not react much to Moody's Ratings downgrade of United States' rating from AAA to Aa1, believe analysts, except for a knee-jerk reaction, if any. At the domestic level, Indian stock markets would be focussed more developments such as progress of monsoon, corporate results and economic data. Talks on tariff-related issues with the US will also impact sentiment. Moody's downgrade, they said, was more to get the rating in sync with Fitch and S&P, who have already downgraded US' ratings. While Fitch had downgraded the rating to AA+ from AAA in August 2023, S&P had lowered US' rating back in August 2011. Source: business-standard.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1923496054017708041 The ‘Big,
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