Podcasts about Fed

The debt limit is the big economic news story of the day, but yes, you *still need to keep an eye on inflation. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of consumer spending, ticked up last month. That’s bad news if you were hoping interest rates, the tool the Federal Reserve uses to fight inflation, might come down soon. And, some musing on the nature of consequences: Three members of the far-right militia known as the Oath Keepers were recently sentenced to prison for their part in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full/Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Sedition Sentence for Oath Keepers' Stewart Rhodes Marks Moment of Accountability” from The New York Times “Jessica Watkins: Oath Keepers member and Army veteran sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for January 6” from CNN Politics “US Inflation (PCE), Consumer Spending Pick Up in Sign of Economic Resilience” from Bloomberg “The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike” from CNN “Atlanta Fed CEO on the debt limit debacle and curbing inflation” from Marketplace “Band-Aid is the most trusted brand in the US, beating out Amazon and Visa” from Business Insider “Netflix's password-sharing crackdown is here — and it costs $7.99 per month” from The Verge “The Restaurant QR-Code Menu Is Being Shown the Door” from The New York Times “The steel sector is carbon-intensive. “Green steel” could be a game changer.” from Marketplace “Admit it — you miss socializing at the office” from Marketplace It’s the last day of our May fundraiser. Help us reach our goal and keep our newsroom running. Give now. Join us in Seattle for a special live taping of “Make Me Smart” on June 9. You can find ticket information here.

The debt limit is the big economic news story of the day, but yes, you *still need to keep an eye on inflation. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of consumer spending, ticked up last month. That’s bad news if you were hoping interest rates, the tool the Federal Reserve uses to fight inflation, might come down soon. And, some musing on the nature of consequences: Three members of the far-right militia known as the Oath Keepers were recently sentenced to prison for their part in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full/Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Sedition Sentence for Oath Keepers' Stewart Rhodes Marks Moment of Accountability” from The New York Times “Jessica Watkins: Oath Keepers member and Army veteran sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for January 6” from CNN Politics “US Inflation (PCE), Consumer Spending Pick Up in Sign of Economic Resilience” from Bloomberg “The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike” from CNN “Atlanta Fed CEO on the debt limit debacle and curbing inflation” from Marketplace “Band-Aid is the most trusted brand in the US, beating out Amazon and Visa” from Business Insider “Netflix's password-sharing crackdown is here — and it costs $7.99 per month” from The Verge “The Restaurant QR-Code Menu Is Being Shown the Door” from The New York Times “The steel sector is carbon-intensive. “Green steel” could be a game changer.” from Marketplace “Admit it — you miss socializing at the office” from Marketplace It’s the last day of our May fundraiser. Help us reach our goal and keep our newsroom running. Give now. Join us in Seattle for a special live taping of “Make Me Smart” on June 9. You can find ticket information here.

Optimistic investors have pushed stocks and bond yields to the high end of the recent range. But inflation, banks and the debt ceiling status are still raising questions that have gone unanswered.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, May 26th at 2 p.m. in London. A hot topic of conversation at the moment is that three big questions that have loitered over the market since January still look unresolved. The first of these is whether inflation is actually coming down. Surprisingly, high inflation was a dominant story last year and a major driver of the market's weakness. A number of low inflation readings in January gave a lot of hope that inflation would now start to fall rapidly, as supply chains normalized and the effect of central bank policy tightening took effect. Yet the data since then has been stubbornly mixed. Headline inflation is coming down, but core inflation, which excludes food and energy, has moderated a lot less. In the U.S., the annualized rate of core consumer price inflation over the last three, six and 12 months is all about 5%. Today's reading of Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, came in above expectations. And in both the UK and the Eurozone, core inflation has also been coming in higher than expected. We still think inflation moderates as policy tightening hits and growth slows, but the improvement here has been slow. One reason our economists think that would take quite a bit of economic weakness to push the Fed, the European Central Bank or the Bank of England, to cut rates this year. That ties nicely into the second issue. Over the last two months, there's been a lot more excitement that the Federal Reserve may now be done raising interest rates, thanks to all of the tightening they've already done and the potential effect of recent U.S. bank stress. But with still high core inflation and the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since 1968, this issue is looking much less resolved. Indeed, in just the last two weeks, markets have moved to price in an additional rate hike from the Fed over the summer. Third and more immediate is the U.S. debt ceiling. Risks around the debt ceiling have been on investors' radar since January, but as U.S. stocks have risen this month and volatility has been low, we've sensed more optimism, that a resolution here is close and that markets can move on to other things. But like inflation or Fed rate increases, the U.S. debt ceiling still looks like another key debate with a lot of questions. U.S. Treasury bills or the cost of insuring U.S. debt, have shown more stress, not less, over the last week. As of this morning, a one month U.S. Treasury bill is yielding over 6%. Optimism that inflation is now falling, the Fed has done hiking and the debt ceiling will get resolved, have helped push both stocks and bond yields to the high end of the recent range. But with these issues still raising a lot of questions, we think that may be as far as they go for the time being, presenting an opportunity to rotate out of stocks and into the aggregate bond index. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

All individuals, based on their own circumstances, decide whether to save, invest, or spend their money. What each person expects to happen in the future plays an important part of the decision. This is the prime reason why trying to treat the economy as a mechanical process is fundamentally wrong. Central planners, and their use of "tools" and "models" to manipulate money always ends up in failure. Life is far too complex, and their "models" can never account for all of variables involved in each individual decision. We need sound money and free markets; not The Fed.

The Fed’s interest rate fight just got more complicated — the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation indicated that prices rose 0.4% last month, a speed-up from the previous month that saw a 0.1% increase. We talk to Christopher Low, chief economist at FHN Financial, about what that could mean for interest rates. And finally, a look at how drag show businesses in Nashville are doing amid the state’s attempted crackdown.

Joining me on this edition of The Grant Williams Podcast is returning guest, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, LLC in Dallas, TX. Danielle's knowledge of the inner workings of the Federal Reserve has been invaluable both to her clients and the broader financial community in recent years and her analysis of the predicament in which the Fed finds itself and the fast-disappearing options at their disposal to extricate themselves has found a hungry audience. This time up, Danielle explains her latest thinking on the state of the economy, how we might be facing an abrupt economic air pocket, the political vulnerability of House Speaker McCarthy, and even the odds of the US splintering via a series of succession movements. It's compelling stuff, folks! Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

It's been an exciting couple of weeks for the sports world. I start today's show with a quick recap of the most thrilling moments from the NHL and NBA playoffs.   The market headlines are currently dominated by several risks—including the debt ceiling debate… the Fed's plan for interest rates… and the stubbornly high inflation. Yet, for some reason, the TV pundits are calling for the next bull market.   I explain the truth about the debt ceiling negotiations… and how to use the resulting market volatility to your advantage.   Next, I break down the massive disconnect between what the Fed is saying about interest rates and what the market is betting on. It's why I keep pounding the table about the tough spot the Fed is in… and why its only course of action is a problem for the stock market.   Finally, I share some data on why the current market risks aren't going away anytime soon.   Bottom line: You'd be crazy to anticipate a bull market right now. More declines are coming… Luckily, there's a simple way to profit from them.   Don't miss tomorrow's episode of WSU Premium. Daniel and I will cover the biggest headlines moving the markets… and share our latest Dollar Stock Club pick. Here's how to join us: WSUoffer.com.   In this episode A recap of the NHL and NBA playoffs [0:30] How to play the debt ceiling drama [3:25] The Fed's only course of action to fight inflation [11:00] You'd be crazy to bet on a bull market right now [16:40] The best way to profit from market declines [26:35] How to start your fine art collection [28:10] Don't miss tomorrow's WSU Premium [32:05] Enjoyed this episode? Get Wall Street Unplugged delivered FREE to your inbox each week: www.curzioresearch.com/wall-street-unplugged/   Wall Street Unplugged podcast is available at: --iTunes: itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/wall-street-unplugged-frank/ --Stitcher: www.stitcher.com/podcast/curzio-research/wall-street-unplugged-2 --Website: www.curzioresearch.com/category/podcast/wall-street-unplugged/   Twitter: twitter.com/frankcurzio Facebook:. www.facebook.com/CurzioResearch/ Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/in/frank-curzio-690561a7/ Website: www.curzioresearch.com

A new report from the Fed paints an alarming picture for many people’s personal finances — a growing number of Americans are deciding to forgo healthcare coverage because of the cost. We look at what that means for people’s well-being and what it says about the economy. Plus, enrollment at community colleges is up this year, especially in programs that focus on the culinary arts. And finally, a chat with Steven Durlauf, professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, about new research that delves into how generational wealth is created.

As negotiators try to avert a U.S. government debt default, there are questions about what spending would be first on the chopping block in a doomsday scenario. We look at how a potential debt limit breach could play out, starting with benefit checks and public sector salaries. Plus, a check-in with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Funds, about how investors think the Fed should act at its next interest-rate-setting meeting. And finally, This is Uncomfortable host Reema Kharis tells us about the podcast’s most recent season delving into the business of women selling their eggs.

As negotiators try to avert a U.S. government debt default, there are questions about what spending would be first on the chopping block in a doomsday scenario. We look at how a potential debt limit breach could play out, starting with benefit checks and public sector salaries. Plus, a check-in with Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Funds, about how investors think the Fed should act at its next interest-rate-setting meeting. And finally, This is Uncomfortable host Reema Kharis tells us about the podcast’s most recent season delving into the business of women selling their eggs.

It's News Day Tuesday! Sam and Emma break down the biggest headlines of the day. First, they run through updates on the subpoena of Donald Trump, E. Jean Carroll's new charges against Trump, a vehicular strike on the White House, the slow acceptance of greedflation theory by economic elites, and Ron DeSantis' police, also tackling Kevin McCarthy and Joe Biden agreeing on their desire to potentially agree to negotiate an agreement on the debt ceiling negotiation. Sam and Emma dive a little deeper into the absurd coverage of the greed factor in inflation, the lingering desire to make it seem like a fringe factor, and how to push the Fed to actually tackle this issue. They then parse through Minnesota's incredible progress with a trifecta and a one-seat Senate majority, walking through the history of the DFL, the incredible pro-labor legislation they're passing, and the importance of actually using power when you have it (*cough* national Democrats *cough*). And in the Fun Half: MR has some technical troubles (totally unrelated to the gerontocratic control of the studio), they watch Newsmax talking heads demean Fox for following the same human rights laws that they – as residents of NYC – also must follow, and Ren from Oregon dives into the private debt issue in the US. Mike from Portland solves Sam's computer issues, William from Portland reflects on the legacy of Michael Brooks, and Greg from Beaumont dives into tacit collusion, before Brian from Germany parses through some crazy attacks on mutual aid activism in North Carolina. Mississippi schools crack down on any non-normative gender expression, and Tusli runs to the defense of killer Daniel Penny, plus, your calls and IMs! Learn more about E-4268 here: https://petitions.ourcommons.ca/en/Petition/Details?Petition=e-4268 Become a member at JoinTheMajorityReport.com: https://fans.fm/majority/join Subscribe to the ESVN YouTube channel here: https://www.youtube.com/esvnshow Subscribe to the AMQuickie newsletter here: https://am-quickie.ghost.io/ Join the Majority Report Discord! http://majoritydiscord.com/ Get all your MR merch at our store: https://shop.majorityreportradio.com/ Get the free Majority Report App!: http://majority.fm/app Check out today's sponsors: IAC Laser Engraving: IAC Laser Engraving is a Leftist-owned Worker Collective started by long time listener Ryan Lubin in September of 2021. They use sustainably sourced materials  coupled with extremely energy efficient laser technology to bring you unique products that you won't find anywhere else! Visit https://www.iaclasers.com/ to order yours today and  enter in Coupon Code: "MAJORITY10" at purchase to receive a 10% discount on their AMAZING products." StoryWorth: StoryWorth is an online service that helps every other figure in your life share stories through thought-provoking questions about their memories and personal thoughts. Give all the fathers in your life a meaningful gift you'll both cherish for years by going to https://storyworth.com/majority. You'll get $10 off your first purchase! Shopify: Scaling your business is a journey of endless possibility. Shopify is here to help, with tools and resources that make it easy for any business to succeed from down the street to around the globe. Sign up for a one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/majority! Follow the Majority Report crew on Twitter: @SamSeder @EmmaVigeland @MattBinder @MattLech @BF1nn @BradKAlsop Check out Matt's show, Left Reckoning, on Youtube, and subscribe on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/leftreckoning Subscribe to Discourse Blog, a newsletter and website for progressive essays and related fun partly run by AM Quickie writer Jack Crosbie. https://discourseblog.com/ Check out Ava Raiza's music here! https://avaraiza.bandcamp.com/ The Majority Report with Sam Seder - https://majorityreportradio.com/

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 20th, 2023... what the Fed Chief is saying about interest rates and potential rate cuts, how the FHFA is responding to a controversy over new rules for home loan fees, and why mall owners have become interested in pickleball.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and the Fed chief's response to predictions about what the central bank plans to do next. Jerome Powell spoke out at a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and said that Fed officials have made “no” decision yet on their next move. Many economists are expecting a pause in rate hikes, but the Fed is determined to bring inflation back down to the 2% level, no matter what. A decision would be made after the Federal Open Market Committee evaluates “all” the most recent data. (1)   Powell may have also dashed a few hopes for rate cuts later this year. He says: “The data has continued to support the FOMC's view that bringing inflation down will take “some time” and that rate cuts simply are not part of the Fed's current forecast. But he also says that interest rates are currently high enough to slow economic growth, and hopefully tamp down inflation without further credit tightening.   Meantime, the U.S. leading economic index, or LEI, shows a decline in April, for the 13th month in a row. The declines have pointed toward a potential recession, but so far, that hasn't happened. The index was down .6% last month with eight of the ten economic indicators showing a decline. (2)   Initial jobless claims were down last week, thanks to an effort in Massachusetts to reduce fraudulent claims. They fell from 264,000 the previous week to 242,000 last week. Overall, they have been slowly rising since January. The number of continuing claims was also down by about 8,000 with about 1.8 million people collecting benefits. (3)   New home construction was higher in April, thanks to an outsized demand among consumers, despite high interest rates. The government says they rose 2.2% for the month with more activity in the Midwest and the West. That's for both multi-family construction, which was up 5.2%, and single-family, which was up 1.6%. Building permits were down, however, by 1.5%. (4)   The home builders confidence index also reflected a positive outlook among builders. The National Association of Home Builders say the index was up five points to a central balance point of 50 in May. Anything above 50 is positive, and below 50, negative. The reading for May is the first time it's been out of negative territory in almost a year. (5)   The latest report for existing home sales is for February, and according to the National Association of Realtors, it surged 14.5% as interest rates experienced a temporary dip. It was the biggest monthly increase since July of 2020 when sales skyrocketed 22.4%. NAR says that single-family sales are currently at their highest level since the association started tracking them in 1999. (6)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates are still moving sideways. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up just 4 basis points, to 6.39%. The 15-year was unchanged at 5.75%. (7)   In other news making headlines...   FHFA Rescinds New DTI Fee Structure   The FHFA is rethinking its controversial new up-front fee structure for single-family home loans which placed more importance on a borrower's debt-to-income ratio than it did on credit score. The government finance agency has now rescinded the new fee structure for Fannie and Freddie loans, and is asking for input on the goals and policy priorities that the FHFA should pursue in regards to an upgrade of the pricing framework. (8)   When the FHFA announced the previously upgraded pricing structure, there was an outcry from real estate organizations, including the Mortgage Bankers Association, the National Association of Realtors, and others. It kinda blew up in the media, because it appeared to raise the fees for people with higher credit scores while lowering fees for low income borrowers, and gave the appearance of an unfair fee subsidy.    The FHFA denies that the fee structure was based on the idea of a subsidy. But it is now accepting feedback from the public on how to adjust the fee structure to better reflect loan risk in order to protect Fannie and Freddie against those risks, and without unnecessary expense for borrowers, especially those struggling with affordability issues.   Mall Owners Filling Empty Stores with Pickleball Courts!   Mall owners have a new strategy to fill vacant stores and attract more people. They are turning to the fast-growing sport of pickleball, and replacing shuttered stores like Bed, Bath, and Beyond with pickleball courts! (9)   The combination satisfies a need on both sides as consumers gravitate toward locations that offer fun, social experiences and not just a place to shop. Malls have already been incorporating things like theaters, arcades, and amusement parks into their shopping locations. So now, they are adding pickleball, and other experience-based activities like skydiving and virtual golf.   Pickleball is currently the nation's fastest growing sport. As reported by CNN and the Sports & Fitness Industry Association, it's up 159% over three years to 8.9 million players in 2022.   That's it for this episode of the Real Estate News for Investors. Please check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. If you want to learn more about investing in real estate, be sure to hit the “Join for Free” button, and check out how RealWealth can help you create a cash-flowing real estate portfolio. And don't forget to subscribe to our podcast!   Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-powell-says-progress-on-bringing-down-inflation-will-be-slow-452edc06?mod=mw_latestnews   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/slowing-u-s-economy-gets-closer-to-recession-leading-index-signals-bac107f3?mod=economic-report   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-to-242-000-as-massachusetts-battles-fraud-dc71930f?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-housing-starts-rise-2-2-in-april-3062a768?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/builder-confidence-rises-for-fifth-consecutive-month-amid-ongoing-shortage-of-u-s-homes-for-sale-a41d33ba?mod=economy-politics   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-sales-rise-for-the-first-time-in-13-months-surging-14-5-in-february-12603067   7 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   8 - https://www.fhfa.gov//Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/FHFA-Requests-Input-on-the-Enterprises-Single-Family-Pricing-Framework.aspx   9 - https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/05/13/business/pickleball-malls-retail-bed-bath-beyond/index.html

Today I'm joined by Mike Lee, CEO of Soul CBD & Former Professional Boxer. For the last decade, Mike has fought in front of millions in arenas like MGM Grand in Vegas to MSG in NYC. In the prime of his career he spent almost two years in and out of hospitals battling what he found out was an autoimmune disease that almost ended his career. Fed up with countless hospital visits and years on prescription medication, Mike immersed himself in the wellness world, learning everything he could about nutrition, mindset and most importantly, CBD. With the help of the latter, Mike defied every doctor's prognosis, and went on to win eight more fights, becoming the #3 ranked fighter in the World and eventually fighting for a World Title in July 2019. Today, Mike is the CEO and co-founder of Soul, a CBD wellness brand, with his sister Angie Lee. With his company, Mike continues to deliver on his mission by helping thousands of people find natural relief from pain, anxiety, and more. 00:04:31 Pursue your dreams without regrets. 10:10:29 Find healthy outlets for emotions. 00:15:47 Achieve greatness at any age. 00:20:29 Create a blueprint for success. 00:26:34 Rest and recovery are important. 00:30:22 Practice self-care for longevity. 00:37:00 Reduce depression with psychedelics. 00:40:04 Integrate plant medicine for healing. 00:47:59 Fight for love, not scarcity. 00:53:41 Find purpose in helping others. 00:56:51 Low risk, high reward lifestyle. 01:00:02 Find inner peace and joy. Connect with Mike @mikeleeofficial and Get Soul CBD at www.getsoul.com --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/cory-camp/message

I get the "Is this good?" question when people first see their numbers. I'm going to share the launch numbers of two shows I did that got a "mild send off" and the shows are growing. Before we get into stats, we need to understand that downloads are just ONE WAY to measure your success. I know our ego is involved but the problem with comparing your podcast stats with others is: Podcasting is a lot like golf or bowling or any other sport that you do against yourself. I'm not saying there is no competition (often much less than you think) but we don't know what we are truly up against. Instead of starring at your competition and getting angry, stare at your audience to help give them what they want.  Know Why You're Doing Your Podcast For the School of Podcasting, my goals are to inspire you to start a podcast, go in the right direction with realistic expectations, and help you achieve your goals. How do we do that? By having you join my membership site and that is the biggest way I measure my show.  Michael O'Neil was nice enough to take a picture of my book Profit from your podcast: Proven strategies to turn your listeners into a livelihood in a Fed-ex store (picture on the website). The goal of that podcast is to inform people with monetization strategies that make them buy the book.  We All Go All In on the Podcast Launch When we launch we tell everyone we know (family friends, co-workers, email lists, etc) and we might continue that for a few weeks until we realize that growth is slow. At first, you might jump 10-20% (but that's easy when your first episode had 15 downloads and the next one had 18).  Full article with graphics at www.schoolofpodcasting.com/880  

Dana Samuelson, founder and president of American Gold Exchange, joined Kerry Lutz on the Financial Survival Network to discuss the current state of the gold market. He believes that gold is consolidating around the $2,000 mark and that the key to the gold market is the value of the dollar relative to other currencies. He believes that if the Fed is forced to pause, gold has the potential to increase by 10-15%. He also believes that the global debt crisis is unsustainable and will eventually lead to the devaluation of fiat currencies. He believes that gold is the currency of last resort and will be a great hedge against the loss of purchasing power of the dollar. AEG Website: https://amergold.com FSN: https://FinancialsurvivalNetwork.com

Though the current market narrative has turned bullish, it may not withstand a downturn in earnings.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, May 22nd at 11a.m in New York. So let's get after it. For the past six months, the S&P 500 has been trading in a narrow range with strong rotations under the surface. When we turned tactically bullish on the index last October at 3500, we did so because the price had reached an attractive level and we believed rates and the dollar were topping. When we exited that trade at 4100 in early December, the price was no longer attractive, given our view that 2023 earnings estimates were materially too high. Fast forward to today and the index is showing some signs that it wants to break higher, even though our concerns remain. The primary difference from the early December highs is that we now have dramatically different leadership. Back then the leaders were energy, materials, financials and industrials, while technology was the big laggard. Small caps were also doing much better and market breadth was strong. The bullish narrative centered around China's reopening, which would put a floor in for global growth. Today, breadth is very weak. Technology, communication services and consumer discretionary are the only sectors up on the year, and even those sectors are exhibiting narrow breadth. Yet investors are more bullish than in early December, or at least far less bearish. The bullish narrative today focuses on technology, specifically on artificial intelligence. While we believe artificial intelligence is for real and will likely lead to some great efficiency to help fight inflation, it's unlikely to prevent the deep earnings recession we forecast for this year. Last week's price action showed frenzied buying by investors who cannot afford to miss the next bull market. We believe this will prove to be a head fake, like last summer for many reasons. First, valuations are not attractive, and it's not just the top ten or 20 stocks that are expensive. The median price earnings multiple is 18 times, which is near the top decile the past 20 years. Second, a very healthy reacceleration is baked in the second half consensus earnings estimates. This flies directly in the face of our forecasts, which continue to point materially lower. We remain highly confident in our model, given how accurate it's been over time and recently. We first started talking about the oncoming earnings recession a year ago and received very strong pushback, just like today. However, our model proved to be quite prescient based on the results and is now projecting 20% lower estimates than consensus, for 2023. Third, the markets are pricing in 2 to 3 Fed cuts before year end without any material implications for growth. We think such an outcome is very unlikely. Instead, we think the Fed will only cut rates if we definitively enter into a recession or if credit markets deteriorate significantly.

Jason hosts Rick Sharga from C.J. Patrick Company who spoke about the current state of the economy and housing market. They discussed the cause of the resilience of the housing market despite 10 consecutive massive rate hikes. Rick stated that this is due to the large cohort of young adults currently coming of age and forming households, and the fact that people like having a roof over their head. They concluded that despite the rate hikes, the housing market is doing well. Rick discussed how demographics and the Fed funds rate increase have affected the housing market. He noted that in 2021, mortgage rates had doubled in a calendar year for the first time in history, leading to a higher cost of monthly payments for home buyers. He also mentioned how 70% of homeowners have mortgage rates of 4% or lower, which means they are not in a hurry to take on a higher rate. This is keeping inventory levels low, combined with growing demand, and causing prices to remain stable. He also noted how this is frustrating those who predicted a housing market crash. Rick Sharga and Jason Hartman discuss the current foreclosure rate, which is about half of the normal rate. They state that 93% of borrowers who are in foreclosure have positive equity. Of those 270,000 borrowers in foreclosure, 100,000 of them have 20-50% equity, 60,000 have more than 50% equity, and 20,000 have more than 75% equity. They also discuss the current state of the housing market. Mortgage rates have been increasing, but they seem to be stabilizing in a band between 6.25% and 6.75%. Existing home sales, inventory levels, new home sales, and rental pricing are all up from last year. Investor activity is also up. The Fed indicated at their last meeting that rates will remain stable until June. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:17 Crash bros are just wrong 2:57 In Nashville, inventory is super low; awesome financing offers  Rick Sharga interview Part 1 4:47 Welcome Rick Sharga, first time mortgage rates doubled in a calendar year 8:17 Foreclosure issues 11:39 Primary Mortgage Market Survey 17:40 Higher rates have crushed affordability 18:25 Purchase loan apps off 35% from prior year 20:36 Existing home sales down from February - and 22% below last year 23:07 Inventory increases in April, but new listings down significantly 23:41 New home sales improving as builders offer incentives 24:29 Inventory coming to market slowly, and selling quickly; disruptive technology & other issues 29:04 The current problems with multifamily housing 30:38 Price appreciation has declined rapidly 31:08 Most regions are still positive year over year 33:31 Most states saw prices increase in March   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

On the Legal Docket, an unforgiving prison guard comes back to court; on the Monday Moneybeat, updates on banking, the federal debt ceiling, and Fed rate hikes; on Departures, remembering the ministry of pastor Harry Reeder III, and the Monday morning news.Support The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donate.Additional support comes from Ambassadors Impact Network, a nationwide group of angel investors committed to funding entrepreneurs whose Christian convictions have hindered secular financing sources. More at ambassadorsimpact.comAnd from Dordt University. Dordt's online grad programs help students advance careers while pursuing Christ-centered renewal in their fields. Learn more at Dordt.edu/grad

May 22, 2023 – At Financial Sense, we strongly believe that there are compelling arguments supporting the likelihood of inflation remaining at higher-than-average levels for the foreseeable future, potentially even throughout the remainder...

US futures are pointing to a slightly lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have opened mixed in a cautious early trade, following mostly upbeat Asian markets. Hawkish remarks from Fed officials including Chair Powell have prompted markets to dial back bet on 2023 policy pivot. While June pause remains consensus, equity futures are also pricing in probability of 25bp hike.Companies Mentioned: Micron Technology, Meta Platforms, Exxon Mobil

Economists look to the residential housing market as a primary indicator of whether a recession is coming, and home transaction and construction data began showing positive signs that the housing downturn may have reached a bottom in February. Many believe we've dodged a severe recession, and some are even optimistic that the Fed will achieve the soft landing the central bank was hoping for—an outcome of stabilized inflation without a significant rise in unemployment.  Consumer spending has begun to plateau, and The Fed has signaled that it will likely put future rate hikes on hold while keeping an eye on inflation. The rate hikes that began last March may finally be coming to a close. Meanwhile, signs have pointed to a recovery in the housing cycle. After a contraction in selling activity, a slowdown in residential development, and falling home prices, things started to turn around in February.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

May 19, 2023 – After this week's wrap-up, Financial Sense Newshour speaks with market technician Tom McClellan to get an update on his outlook for the stock market, gold, and oil. Next, we converse with Doomberg about political strategies...

FRONTLINE Film Audio Tracks are FRONTLINE documentaries, in audio form. Stream or download full-length recordings of film audio tracks on Apple Podcasts or our website.  Listen to the full-length audio from Age of Easy Money, FRONTLINE's recent investigation into the Federal Reserve's “easy money” policies.  Around the country and across the world, economic uncertainty continues as businesses and individuals adjust to a new reality: the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates and pulling back on its epic monetary experiment that started with the Great Financial Crisis. From the award-winning team behind The Facebook Dilemma and Amazon Empire, the two-hour documentary investigates how the Fed's policies have changed the American economy and what comes after the age of easy money.

There are a few things that Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey writes about that don't seem to garner much interest. In this show, Mike is going to talk about two of those things, why they matter, and why you should care. He also talks about the recent drop in the price of gold and what the markets are getting wrong. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/42ORVCz Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news. TOPICS DISCUSSED -The gold selloff -Fed-speak -Is a "soft landing" in the cards? -The national debt and budget deficits -Household debt at record levels -Why do these things matter?

0:00 Intro 2:28 Big News 3:09 Food Rationing 12:44 Explosive Ammonium Nitrate 25:24 Interview with Steve Bannon 1:07:50 Interview with Jason Crowe - NYC to start tracking meat purchases by citizens - Food RATIONING will happen soon, and "climate crisis" will be the excuse - 60,000 lbs. of ammonium nitrate have been hijacked off a train - That's about 12 PALLETS of explosives - Fed-run black ops groups likely planning something bigger than 9/11 - We must PEACEFULLY save this republic from those who seek to destroy it - Adams offers sneak preview of amazing new silver-infused textiles - Full interview with Steve Bannon: America, AI terminators, Trump, RFK, censorship, Elon Musk and the CCP - Full interview with Jason Crowe from Qortal, the distributed content platform that CANNOT be censored or stopped For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food freedom, medical freedom, the freedom of speech, etc.). Together, we're helping create a better world, with more honest food labeling, reduced chemical contamination, the avoidance of toxic heavy metals and vastly increased scientific transparency. ▶️ Every dollar you spend at the Health Ranger Store goes toward helping us achieve important science and content goals for humanity: https://www.healthrangerstore.com/ ▶️ Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html ▶️ Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/hrreport ▶️ Join Our Social Network: https://brighteon.social/@HealthRanger ▶️ Check In Stock Products at: https://PrepWithMike.com

The Rodel Institute is an independent nonprofit organization devoted to strengthening American democracy and improving the quality of public leadership in the United States. A nonpartisan center for leadership and intellectual growth, Rodel helps America's most promising leaders reach their full potential as public servants, deepen their commitment to democracy and the rule of law, and work together to address some of our nation's most important domestic and international challenges. The Institute's programs convene diverse leaders from across the political, legal, and policy spectrum in an effort to find common ground, build relationships, and encourage the understanding and cooperation needed to move our nation forward.   The Institute kicked off the first Federal Executive Fellowship this year and Katie Galgano, the Deputy Director for the fellowship program, joined me on the podcast to discuss the program's unique benefits and why you might want to apply.   To learn more, you can reach out to Katie directly or head to the websites below.   Katie Galgano's direct email address: katiegalgano@rodelinstitute.org General email: info@rodelinstitute.org   www.rodelinstitute.org   https://www.rodelinstitute.org/programs/rodel-federal-executive-fellowship/

The drone of central bank speak dominates the calendar again. ECB President Lagarde is speaking, but markets are unlikely to care. Federal Reserve President Williams is another matter—Williams represents a voice of intellectual economic leadership at the Fed.

A Senate hearing on recent bank failures turned into a prickly confrontation between bank executives and lawmakers. Former leadership for Silicon Valley, Signature, and First Republic Banks were hammered by lawmakers about why their banks collapsed. And there wasn't a lot of agreement on the cause. Bank executives blamed the government and the media, while lawmakers blamed mismanagement and greed.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   Silicon Valley Bank made the biggest splash as the first bank to fall with about $210 billion in assets. Signature bank had about $110 billion when it was seized by regulators. They were the third and fourth largest banks in the U.S. so their failures raised huge concerns about the impact on the entire financial system. First Republic went south and teetered for a few months after it lost billions in deposits, and was largely taken over by JPMorgan.   SVB CEO Blamed a Series of “Unprecedented Events”   In a joint session before the Senate Banking Committee, former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker pointed a finger at the federal government, saying the bank's failure was the result of a series of “unprecedented events.” He testified that: “With near zero-percent interest rates and the largest government sponsored economic stimulus in history, more than $5 trillion in new deposits flooded into commercial banks. By the end of 2020, SBV had grown 63 percent over the prior year, and in 2021, SVB's assets grew another 83 percent to $212 billion.” (1)   He also pointed out that during the pandemic, when inflation started to become an issue, the Federal Reserve insisted that inflation was “transitory” and that interest rates would remain low.   Massive Bank Run at SVB   The bank's collapse largely happened after a decision to invest more than half of the bank's loan portfolio into fixed-income Treasury securities, when interest rates were low. They are considered “low risk” but they are also impacted by interest rate hikes. When interest rates blew up to fight inflation, the value of SVB's portfolio shrank and that forced the bank to sell at a $2 billion loss. When news spread about the bank's situation, depositors became concerned about accessing their funds and the bank experienced a massive bank run.    Media Misconceptions   Becker also blamed the media for comparing the March 8th failure of Silvergate Bank to Silicon Valley Bank. He told lawmakers that the two banks had completely different business models, and said: “Rumors and misconceptions quickly spread online, culminating on March 9th with the first-ever social media bank run leading to more than $42 billion in deposits being withdrawn from SVB in 10 hours, or $1 million every second.”   Two More Dominoes to Fall   Former Signature Bank Chairman Scott Shay was miffed that his bank was seized by New York State regulators on March 12th. He insisted that the bank would have survived that bank run. He argued: “We were at all times solvent and well-capitalized, and even with the sale of our available-for-sale securities, we still would have remained well capitalized.”   Former First Republic CEO Mike Roffler also blamed social media and news stories for inciting panic among depositors along with technology that allows for fast-paced digital withdrawals. Roffler told lawmakers: “The contagion spread very quickly and panic is very hard to control.” (2)   Lawmakers Blame Mismanagement, Greed   But lawmakers also took the conversation in a different direction, criticizing bank leaders for millions of dollars in bonuses and personal stock sales ahead of the failures. Senator Sherrod Brown ripped into Becker saying: “Workers face consequences, executives ride off into the sunset. Only in corporate boardrooms can you run your business into the ground, take the whole economy along with you and come out ahead. We can't let that happen again.”   Some lawmakers said that bank executives could have reduced the risk by hedging their portfolios, but that they, instead, placed profits ahead of safety. As explained in a Washington Post article, Silicon Valley Bank had financed short-term liabilities with long-term debt. It seemed like a no-brainer when interest rates were low, and to be fair, there was a lot of talk about interest rates remaining low for a very long time. But when the Fed started hiking rates, the value of those Treasurys went down. Lawmakers say the bank could have swapped those longer-term notes for one with shorter-terms that match the duration of the bank's liabilities. But they say the banks didn't do that because it would have been more expensive. (3)   Sharp Words from Some Senators   The session became downright nasty at times. Senator John Kenney of Louisiana had sharp words for what he called SVB's “stupidity.” He told Becker: “You made a really stupid bet that went bad, didn't ya? And the taxpayers of America had to pick up the tab for your stupidity, didn't they?” (4)   He continued saying: “No, this wasn't unprecedented. This was bone-deep, down-to-the-marrow stupid. You put all your eggs in one basket and unless you lived on the International Space Station you could see that interest rates were rising and that you weren't hedged.”   Let's hope we've seen the last of this kind of banking madness. You can read more about this by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com.    I always encourage listeners to hedge their own financial empire with real estate. You can learn how to invest in rental properties at RealWealth. Becoming a member is free and will give you access to all our educational material as well as our investor portal with valuable data on rental markets, sample properties, and help from our investment counselors who can answer your questions. Just hit the “Join for Free” button.   And please remember to subscribe to this podcast!    Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   If you're a RealWealth member, just sign into the portal and look for DealCheck under the Resources tab. If you aren't a member, it's free and easy to sign up. And, please remember to subscribe to this podcast!   Thanks for listening! Kathy    Links:   1 - https://commercialobserver.com/2023/05/svb-signature-ceos-blame-federal-govt-media-bank-failures/   2 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/05/17/lawmaker-blasts-first-republic-chief-you-were-one-of-3-worst-run-banks-in-us/?sh=256ad3e18d07   3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/15/svb-s-fateful-mistake-could-be-lurking-in-your-401-k/0f139944-c31b-11ed-82a7-6a87555c1878_story.html 4 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

While the U.S. economy looks to be on track for a soft landing in 2023, even the smallest of setbacks could spell trouble for the end of the year.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss our view around the soft landing for the U.S. economy. It's Friday, May 19th, at 10 a.m. in New York. Last year, we presented our outlook that 2023 would see a soft landing for the U.S. economy. This out of consensus view continues to be our base case expectation. And we looked at several key data points as evidence to support it, including the U.S. housing cycle, income and spending dynamics, the labor market and inflation. To start, economists have long said, "As goes housing, so goes the business cycle." And housing is a very important factor in our outlook for a soft landing. While the decline in housing activity has been record breaking from a national perspective, Morgan Stanley's housing strategists believe the cycle is bottoming. In our forecast, the big drag on economic growth from the housing correction should turn neutral by the third quarter of 2023, providing some cushion against the growth slowdown elsewhere. Second, the incoming data on U.S. income and consumer spending also support our expectation that the economy is slowing but not falling off a cliff. On the one hand, discretionary consumer spending is softening. On the other hand, income is the predominant driver of consumer spending, and even as wage growth continues to slow, our forecasted path for inflation suggests that real wages will finally turn positive in the middle of this year. Third, we look to labor market dynamics, and the April U.S. employment report provides ample evidence that the labor market is slowing but is also not headed for a cliff. The steady decline in job postings with still low unemployment rates since the middle of last year supports our soft landing view. And finally, we closely monitor inflation. The most recent April data suggests that core inflation continues to slowly recede, tracking in line with our forecasts, as well as the Fed's March projections. We think the incoming data continue to support a Fed pause at the June meeting, and after June we can see a wide range of potential outcomes for the policy rate. We expect a gradual slowing in core inflation that keeps the Fed on hold until March 2024, when it begins to normalize policy with quarter percent rate cuts every three months. To be sure, the possibility of a recession remains a concern this year amid banking pressures with unknown spillovers to the economy from tighter credit. Should credit growth slow more than expected, it would bring larger spillovers to investment, consumption and labor. Against this backdrop, we expect the U.S. economy to experience a sharp slowdown in the middle two quarters of the year, so even small hiccups could push us into a recession. We'll continue to keep you abreast of any new developments. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Questions From The Flight Deck:  What the heck is ChatGPT, and what jobs will most be impacted? What is it...? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT What jobs are at risk...? https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/which-jobs-artificial-intelligence-gptimpact/ What about ChatGPT from an investing perspective? ETFs: AIQ, BOTZ, ROBT, AIEQ – see Kwanti. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-smart-is-chatgpt/ AI in the Cockpit? https://theaircurrent.com/technology/natural-language-processing-aviation-atccockpit/   Optimism – It's NOT cool! Have we always been pessimistic? Or is it a new phenomenon? “The preacher man says it's the end of time and the Mississippi river, she's goin dry...the interest is up and the stock market's down and you only get mugged if you go downtown...” Great survival story...Hank Williams Jr. If Everything is Getting Better, Why Are People So Pessimistic? “...Those are three emotional biases toward pessimism. We also have cognitive biases that incline us that way, foremost among them being the “availability heuristic.” This is a feature of the psychology of probability also documented by Tversky, in collaboration with the Nobel Prize–winning economist Daniel Kahneman. Forty years ago, Kahnemanm and Tversky argued that one of the ways the human brain estimates probability is by using a simple rule of thumb: the more easily you can recall an example of something, the more likely you estimate it to be. The result is that anything that makes an incident more memorable will also make it seem more probable. The quirks of the brain's ability to retain information will bleed into our estimates of a risk's likelihood.” “...The bad‐ dominates‐ good phenomenon is multiplied by a second source of bias, sometimes called the illusion of the good old days. People always pine for a golden age. They're nostalgic about an era in which life was simpler and more predictable. The psychologist Roger Eibach has argued that this is because people confuse changes in themselves with changes in the times. As we get older, certain things inevitably happen to us. We take on more responsibilities, so we have a greater cognitive burden. We become more vigilant about threats, especially as we become parents. ...At the same time, we see our own capacities decline. As we get older, we become stupider in terms of the sheer ability to process and retain information. There's a strong tendency to misattribute these changes in ourselves to changes in the world. A number of experimental manipulations bear this out. If you have people try to make some change in their lives — say, to eat less fat — often they become convinced that there are more and more advertisements for fatty foods.”   Ten Reasons Clients Should Be Optimistic About The Future: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ten-reasons-clients-should-be-optimistic-about-the-future-72935.html?section=68&utm_source=FA+Subscribers&utm_campaign=d580b67712-FAN_IP_Next_Chapter_Parnassus_050422_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6bebc79291-d580b67712-240228216  The US is a net oil exporter. Higher short-term interest rates. Inflation is moderating Companies are great at passing along costs. Now is the time to seek out lower cost providers/products. The Federal Reserve is not a bunch of dummies. Companies know how to cut expenses to boost profits. The stock market has been the best way to make money consistently for decades. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. Riding High...   Some Alternatives: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-is-the-economy-doing-right-now-inflationinterest-rate-hikes-rcna73613 Inflation cooling – 4.9% in April – announced today – 10 May 2023. The Fed doesn't have as much control as you think. And no more, QE! https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/05/some-things-the-fed-doesnt-control/ US households are in excellent shape, the ratio of liabilities to net wealth has declined 50% since the 2008 financial crisis, and household leverage is currently at levels last seen in the early 1980s; see chart below. If the unemployment rate rises, consumer spending will slow down, but the starting point for US households is very strong. Balance Sheets Are Barriers Against Contagion...Household, corporate and bank balance sheets are more resilient today than during past crises.   Factfullness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—And Why Things Are Better Than You Think. https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-ThingsBetter/dp/1250123828/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= Author Hans Rosling   Quotes The first is from philosopher, historian, psychologist, William James: “Pessimism leads to weakness, optimism to power.”  The second from the late former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Colin Powell: “Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.”   Resources https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/09/bill-melinda-gatesfoundation-goalkeepers-report-poverty/671415/ https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1103776/why-optimism-is-a-secret-weapon-ininvesting https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58612#:~:text=In%20CBO%E2%80%99s%20projections%2C%20the%20U.S.%20population%20increases%20from,accounts%20for%20all%20population%20growth%20beginning%20in%202042 https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/is-inflation-good-or-bad/ https://www.reference.com/world-view/inflation-good-bad-5bcd09b085e0a85d

Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. According to a report from the New York Federal Reserve, the total for borrowing across all categories hit $17.05 trillion, an increase of nearly $150 billion, or 0.9% during the January-to-March period. That took total indebtedness up about $2.9 trillion from the pre-Covid period ending in 2019.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss news that famed short-seller Michael Burry and his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, snapped up 150,000 shares of First Republic prior to its purchase by JP Morgan, worth about $2 million at the end of the first quarter.Chris and Saied look at A Gallup poll indicating that 36% of US adults say they have a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence that the Federal Reserve chairman would do or recommend the right thing for the economy, a precipitous drop which is now at or below his predecessors' as the central bank wages its war against inflation.⁣They also offer some thoughts on recently-released Federal Reserve data, showing that deposits at U.S. banks climbed to $17.16 trillion in the week ended May 3, up about $67 billion, ticking up from the lowest level in nearly two years while bank lending was little changed at a record level.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why inflaton in Argentina has sped up to 109% as currency weakens before the election.The three steps to a Federal Reserve pivot.Why Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are doubling down in the banking sector.Why the FOMC needs to see inflation going down on a fast enough trend.And so much more...Resources:"With $1B in back rent due, LA landlords struggle to survive" (The RealDeal via Instagram)"Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time" (CNBC via Instagram)"Michael Burry loaded up on bank stocks during the banking crisis" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed is done raising rates, stocks to finish the year higher" (CNBC via Instagram)"Confidence in Jerome Powell has plunged to a record low" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"What happens when the prophecy of the blockchain fails?" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"U.S. bank deposits rise in early May, lending little changed at record high" (Reuters)"US real estate investors are losing money on roughly 1 in 7 homes they sell — among the worst since 2016. And they're most likely to take a hit...

May 19, 2023 – Chris Puplava, Chief Investment Officer at Financial Sense Wealth Management, warns listeners that we've now seen a large cluster of Hindenburg Omen sell signals raised across numerous stock market indices. Furthermore...

May 18, 2023 – Today, we are joined by Aaran Param at Variant Perception who says, according to their data, the US economy is likely already in a recession and that their shorter-term tactical indicators are now on a sell. Aaram discusses the possibility...

So far, the world of investing in 2023 is proving to be very different from 2022. In early May, the Fed raised interest rates above 5% for the first time since 2007. Investors are asking questions about whether rates will stop rising and if inflation has reached its peak. Gargi Chaudhuri, Head of iShares Investment Strategy joins host Oscar Pulido to provide her 3P's of investing for these volatile markets.Sources: Bloomberg, as of May 10, 2023, based on the latest CPI print; Bloomberg, as of May 10, 2023. U.S. treasury represented by the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury index. High quality credit represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Corporate index.This material is intended for information purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities, funds or strategies to any person in any jurisdiction in which an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The opinions expressed are as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investing involves risks. BlackRock does and may seek to do business with companies covered in this podcast. As a result, readers should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this podcast. In the U.S. and Canada, this material is intended for public distribution. 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In today's episode, Preston Caldwell, senior U.S. economist for Morningstar Research Services, discusses the U.S. debt ceiling, banking sector crisis, and strong jobs market.IntroductionDisney's Disappointing Fiscal Q2 PayPal Strong Start to 2023Shopify's Stellar Quarter Talk about where it looks like inflation is headed.  -What are your thoughts on whether we're headed toward an 11th interest rate hike or a pause?What's happening in the jobs market?What is the debt ceiling and how does it work?Are there any other areas that people should be looking out for if debt default were to happen?What kind of fallout will recent bank failures have on the economy?3 Inflation-Fighting ETFsRead about topics from this episode.  Disney Earnings: Smaller Streaming Losses Are Nice, but Subscriber Growth Needs ReinvigoratingPayPal Earnings: Growth Picks Up, Strong Margin ImprovementShopify Earnings: Strong Results as Revenue and Profitability Top ExpectationsFed's Powell Hints at—but Doesn't Commit to—a Pause After the Latest Rate HikeWhen Will the Fed Start Cutting Interest Rates?What Will the Upcoming GDP Report Show About the U.S. Economy? What to watch from Morningstar.Active ETFs Take Off –– 3 Ideas for InvestorsBerkshire Hathaway: 4 Questions and 5 Cheap StocksMorningstar Investment Conference: Recession Risks and the MarketsPlanning to Retire Soon? Flexibility and Spending Count Read what our team is writing:Ivanna HamptonPreston CaldwellDaniel Sotiroff Follow us on social media.Ivanna Hampton on Twitter: @IvannaHamptonFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/Twitter: https://twitter.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Housing in America has never been this unaffordable. The pandemic set off skyrocketing prices; then the Fed began to rapidly increase interest rates, pushing up borrowing costs. Many predicted this might result in a crash. But after dropping 10% from all-time highs, home prices in America are picking up again. What is going on?On this week's podcast, hosts Alice Fulwood, Tom Lee-Devlin and Mike Bird ask if anything can take the heat out of the American housing market. Skylar Olsen, chief economist at property app Zillow, tells them that interest rate rises have added $800 a month to the typical American household's mortgage bill. And Domonic Purviance from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta explains how central bankers are thinking about the impact on the affordability of those loans.We would love to hear from you. Please fill out our listener survey at economist.com/moneytalkssurveySign up for our new weekly newsletter dissecting the big themes in markets, business and the economy at www.economist.com/moneytalks For full access to print, digital and audio editions, subscribe to The Economist at www.economist.com/podcastoffer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The labor market is still tight, don’t get us wrong. Many employers are still looking for workers. And the economy is so resilient that the Fed has reason to be worried about sticky inflation. But all that said, jobless claims are ticking up. We’re keeping an eye on that with Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. Plus, Russia has agreed to extend a deal allowing Ukrainian grain exports to safely travel out of the Black Sea. This helps both Ukraine and the lower-income countries that could use some relief from high food prices. And, why the unemployment rate for younger workers is so high in China.

Tom welcomes back David Brady, CEO, and Co-Founder of Global Pro Traders to discuss the current financial picture. He believes this is the last pull back before a big take off in gold, silver, platinum, and miners. Hedge funds are massively short bonds in particular the 10-year, and the banks are on the opposite side of that trade. History shows that banks are almost always the winners. He provides a few targets he anticipates in the next run. David believes we will get a deflationary event at some point in the near future. By the end of the year, he feels a depressionary scenario is likely, with soaring unemployment, bankruptcies, credit card debt, and auto reposessions. Real estate is stagnating, and the banking crisis is worsening. The Fed will cut rates and print, but that might not save the markets this time. We could be looking at a controlled demolition of the economy, with most sectors going down. Prices for necessities will skyrocket, and there won't be many places to put your money. David believes a mind-shift is occurring in the public with regards to gold and confidence in currencies. We're seeing talk about fertilizers being bad for the environment and the purchasing of farms in the Netherlands. If the politicians don't agree on the debt ceiling agreement, all hell could break loose. The Fed would have to restart the printers as the debt rating falls. We can't just keep borrowing while devaluing the currency, which means some sort of financial reset is inevitable. You want to be in assets proven to hold value through time. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:42 - Unease & Crises10:38 - Flash Crash Potential?19:00 - Interest in Gold?21:56 - Inflationary Event26:12 - COT Report Trends29:10 - Debt Ceiling Theatrics40:03 - Europe & Dollar Dynamics43:14 - Dollar & Gold Movement47:15 - Reality & Growth Goals54:30 - Concluding Thoughts Talking Points From This Episode Hedge funds are short bonds while banks are long; who will be right.A great recession is a risk in which prices for necessities will skyrocket.We are facing a financial reset, and why the best bet is to invest in assets proven to hold value. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/globalprotraderSprott Money: https://www.sprottmoney.com/writersSilver Chartist: https://silverchartist.com David Brady has managed money for banks and businesses for 25 years. Mr. Brady is a CFA charter holder and holds a bachelor's degree in Business Studies and Financial Markets from Dublin City University. He started as a foreign currency trader in USD/DEM and managed multi-billion dollar bond and foreign exchange portfolios for multinationals such as eBay and Salesforce. He has always been interested in financial markets, winning investment competitions at the age of 15. Scoring the highest grade for his graduate thesis, "Is the ERM (Exchange Rate Mechanism) Fatally Flawed," in 1993, and won foreign currency spot, forward, and bond trading competitions at 23. Suffice to say that financial markets have been his passion for much of his life. David is a native of Dublin, Ireland. He moved to the United States in 1998 and now lives in Ontario, Canada, since 2015, with his wife and four kids.

Al Gordon provides essential real estate market data, covering everything from interest rate hikes to existing home sales reports and jobless claims to the Fed. With a focus on how these factors impact the rental market, Al emphasizes the importance of understanding the data and its implications for investors. Listen in for crucial insights into the current real estate landscape. Click to Listen Now