Podcasts about Fed

Gerald Peters interviews Michael Saylor about the current crypto winter, MicroStrategy's large Bitcoin position, and why the company's equity-funded strategy and strong balance sheet make short-term price swings manageable. They also explain STRC, MicroStrategy's over-collateralized digital credit instrument that pays an 11% dividend, discuss macro factors like Fed policy, and outline three core drivers that could propel Bitcoin long term.

Feb 26, 2026 – Is the world drifting toward a new era of global conflict — one that doesn't look like the wars of the past? In this gripping interview, Martin Armstrong lays out why today's geopolitical tensions may be part of a much larger historical cycle...

Chris Kline is the COO & Co-Founder of Bitcoin IRA. In this conversation, we discuss how wealthy investors use retirement accounts to reduce taxes, why volatility can create opportunities like Roth conversions, and the mistakes people make by holding assets in the wrong account. We also cover bitcoin in retirement portfolios, estate planning strategies, and how macro conditions like inflation, deflation, and Fed policy may impact long-term asset allocation.========================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you'll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at FountainLife.com/Pomp Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at FountainLife.com/pomp========================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/========================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.========================0:00 - Intro1:55 – How to use the tax code to get in better position2:51 – How 401(k)s replaced pensions (why it mattered) 6:20 – Tax advantages of non-W2 income & retirement accounts 9:08 – Long-term asset allocation & bitcoin in retirement 13:12 – Using Roth conversions during bitcoin drawdowns 21:10 – How taxes create massive long-term performance drag 22:39 – Borrowing against bitcoin instead of selling 28:29 – Inflation, deflation, & why government data lags reality 33:15 – What macro headwinds mean for assets and portfolios 36:38 – Bitcoin IRA tools, incentives, & next steps

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Another day, several more critical development in the credit markets. Loss projections are soaring. A second fund stepped forward acknowledging asset sales (at lower prices). Big (related) shift in rates markets that ties in the Fed, yield curve, and everything else. Here we go over all three; what happened, what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's Free Guide (video) to interpreting market signals. Taken from the EDU membership, it will help you learn fundamentals necessary to deciphering and decoding market information in a useful manner, unlike everything you get from mainstream sources. https://web.eurodollar-university.com/home------------------------------------------------------Private Credit Fears Deepen With UBS Warning of 15% Defaultshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/ubs-now-sees-private-credit-defaults-reaching-15-in-worst-caseBoaz Weinstein Warns ‘Wheels Coming Off' Private Credit Fundshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/boaz-weinstein-warns-wheels-coming-off-private-credit-fundsPrivate Credit Fund Is Selling $477 Million of Assets at 94% Value as Industry Worries Continuehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-24/new-mountain-bdc-is-selling-477-million-of-assets-at-94-value

Feb 25, 2026 – Last week's Supreme Court ruling upended President Trump's sweeping tariff strategy, cutting the effective U.S. tariff rate nearly in half and sending shockwaves through global trade. Adriano Bosoni breaks down who wins and who loses...

Brian from Santiment joined me to review the Onchain metrics for the crypto market. We conduct analysis on Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Uniswap.

Is the global economy stronger than it looks or more fragile beneath the surface? If you're trying to reconcile booming markets with rising geopolitical risk, this week's episode brings an important perspective.I sat down with Chris Zhang, Partner & CIO of Ascend Interplay, to break down the real forces shaping 2026:How AI is shifting from a narrative to a measurable economic impactWhy labor markets may determine where we go nextGlobal structural shifts that are underway - from escalating Middle East tensions to the rise of protectionism - and what they imply for supply chains, inflation dynamics, and U.S. debt sustainability.Big thanks to Chris for a thoughtful, data-driven discussion.⏱️ Chapter Markers00:00 – Welcome & Why 2025 Defied Gravity02:00 – Global GDP Surprise & Market Performance03:30 – The Structural Bull Market in Gold & Silver07:45 – When Would Gold Actually Fall?10:00 – 2026 Outlook: Cautiously Constructive11:45 – AI's Real Impact on Productivity & Labor14:30 – Middle East Conflict & Oil Markets17:15 – Are Trade Wars Really Over?19:30 – Structural Protectionism & Supply Chains22:00 – The Americas Strategy & Regional Integration26:30 – U.S. Debt: Is There a Real Solution?29:45 – The Fed, Growth & Kevin Warsh's Role32:45 – Final Takeaways for 2026Links:Chris Zhang: LinkedInInterplay: Website, LinkedIn, TwitterMPD: LinkedIn, Twitter

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros planos tras el reporte de $NVDA: beat y guía “por margen amplio”, pero sin euforia en índices; hoy el foco pasa a datos macro y balance de la Fed. $NVDA entrega un 4T explosivo y guía alta: data center domina, márgenes cerca de 75% y narrativa de “agentic AI”, con más competencia en CPUs frente a $INTC y $AMD. Reuters cuestiona el timeline de robotaxis de $TSLA en California; encuesta de Schwab muestra traders retail más cautelosos y menos euforia por IA.

Il 2025 è stato l'anno dei metalli preziosi: argento +94%, oro +45%, palladio e platino in rally. Poi, all'improvviso, il crash. Cosa è successo davvero il 30 gennaio?  È stata colpa di Trump, della Fed o c'è qualcosa di più tecnico dietro? In questo episodio analizziamo come funziona il mercato dei futures su oro e argento, perché l'aumento dei margini del CME può innescare vendite a catena e l'impatto di AI, transizione energetica e domanda industriale. Perché oro e argento non sono azioni: non producono flussi di cassa. Sono asset volatili, tecnici, e spesso guidati da narrativa e microstruttura di mercato. Investire in metalli non è per cuori deboli. Una produzione Corax.

Matt Cole is the CEO of Strive Asset Management, and Jeff Park is a Partner & Chief Investment Officer at ProCap Financial. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this conversation, we break down why bitcoin's volatility doesn't change the long-term story, how institutions think about drawdowns, and what today's Fed policy could mean for bitcoin and other risk assets. We also touch on digital credit, bitcoin-backed yield, and why volatility may actually be one of bitcoin's biggest advantages for long-term investors.=====================Bitget (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew) is the world's largest Universal Exchange (UEX) (https://bitget.com/promotion/futures-tradfi?channelCode=regd&vipCode=nkew), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold. At launch, users can trade 79 instruments with USDT directly with the App. Users can also enjoy high liquidity and low slippage, while trading these assets with up to 500x leverage. For more information on Bitget TradFi, visit this article (https://bitget.com/support/articles/12560603846859).For more information, visit: Website (https://bitget.com/) | Twitter (https://x.com/bitget) | Telegram (https://t.me/BitgetENOfficial) | LinkedIn (https://linkedin.com/company/bitget-global/) | Discord (https://discord.com/invite/bitget)For media inquiries, please contact: media@bitget.com=====================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.=====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.=====================0:00 - Intro0:15 - Bitcoin volatility & Kevin Warsh impact4:19 - QE, deflation, & monetary regime change12:09 - The rise of digital credit & why bear markets build institutional track records 18:39 - Bitcoin treasury strategies & yield generation 

Mortgage rates aren't falling the way buyers expect—and this interview breaks down why “waiting for a crash” may backfire, plus what realistic first-time buyer strategies still work in today's market. Zachary Foust explains why mortgage rates haven't followed Fed cuts the way people assume, and how bond investors, inflation risk, and the mortgage-to-bond “spread” affect what buyers actually pay. He argues a 2008-style housing crash is unlikely without a major inventory surge, and that the kind of crash many buyers hope for would likely come with painful unemployment. The conversation shifts into practical “path of least resistance” moves—like using FHA/USDA/VA and state housing authority assistance, considering townhomes in secondary markets, and paying attention to new construction incentives—while also naming the emotional toll this market is taking on first-time buyers. “Townhomes aren't sexy, but they're affordable to build and they're cheaper, especially if they're on the outside of a primary market.” - Zachary Foust HighlightsWhy aren't mortgage rates dropping even when the Fed cuts rates?What does “quantitative easing” actually mean—and why is it showing up again in 2026?If prices did drop 20–50%, what would likely have to happen to unemployment first?How can first-time buyers use FHA/USDA/VA and state housing authority programs to lower upfront costs?Why are some builders offering major incentives—and why might new construction be a “quiet sale” opportunity?What does buying “outside the sun” (secondary markets) look like in real life?Check out our updated 2026 First Time Homebuyer's Episode Guide - Over 100 of our BEST Episodes of Detailed Homebuying Knowledge, Interviews, and MORE! Connect with me to find a trusted realtor in your area or to answer your burning questions!Subscribe to our YouTube Channel @HowToBuyaHomeInstagram @HowtoBuyAHomePodcastTik Tok @HowToBuyAHomeVisit our Resource Center to "Ask David" AND get your FREE Home Buying Starter Kit!David Sidoni, the "How to Buy a Home Guy," is a seasoned real estate professional and consumer advocate with two decades of experience helping first-time homebuyers navigate the real estate market. His podcast, "How to Buy a Home," is a trusted resource for anyone looking to buy their first home. It offers expert advice, actionable tips, and inspiring stories from real first-time homebuyers. With a focus on making the home-buying process accessible and understandable, David breaks down complex topics into easy-to-follow steps, covering everything from budgeting and financing to finding the right home and making an offer. Subscribe for regular market updates, and leave a review to help us reach more people. Ready for an honest, informed home-buying experience? Viva la Unicorn Revolution - join us!

Le Shi of Auros discusses how global macro factors and US political headlines are driving the current crypto market regime. Auros Hong Kong Managing Director, Le Shi, joins CoinDesk Live to discuss the tightening convergence between crypto and global macro factors. He breaks down how political headlines from Trump's tariff threats to Fed chair nominations are now driving bitcoin. Shi suggests that as the US midterms approach, political incentives to cut rates and boost the economy could provide the necessary catalyst to pull the crypto market out of its current choppy regime. - This episode was hosted live by Jennifer Sanasie at Consensus Hong Kong 2026, presented by Hex Trust.

David is joined by special guest Renè Aninao, of CORBU, for an invigorating discussion about the state of geopolitics, the Fed, markets, and more. They cover multiple countries, multiple world leaders, and most of all, multiple first principles. It is always worth the listen when Renè Aninao steps into the Capital Record! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On this week's show, Patrick Gray, Adam Boileau and James WIlson discuss the week's cybersecurity news. They cover: Low skill actors compromise 600 Fortinets with AI-generated playbooks Anthropic calls out Chinese AI firms over model distillation Meta's director of AI safety tells her ClawdBot not to delete her mail… so of course it does Peter Williams cops 7 years in jail for selling L3 Harris Trenchant's exploits to Russia Ivanti got hacked in 2021 via… bugs in Ivanti This episode is sponsored by line-rate network capture system Corelight. CEO Brian Dye joins to discuss what AI can do for defenders, and what it can't. This episode is also available on Youtube. Show notes AI-augmented threat actor accesses FortiGate devices at scale "this reads to me like: they ran existing tools.... but with a cool dashboard :D" Anthropic accuses Chinese labs of trying to illicitly take Claude's capabilities | CyberScoop Detecting and preventing distillation attacks Hegseth warns Anthropic to let the military use the company's AI tech as it sees fit, AP sources say Anthropic Rolls Out Embedded Security Scanning for Claude AWS's AI Coding Bot Kiro Caused a 13-Hour Outage Running OpenClaw safely: identity, isolation, and runtime risk Former Adobe, Cisco and Salesforce CISO talks AI pentesting History Repeats: Security in the AI Agent Era Meta Director of AI Safety Allows AI Agent to Accidentally Delete Her Inbox Microsoft says Office bug exposed customers' confidential emails to Copilot AI | TechCrunch The (tangential) fix: Microsoft adds Copilot data controls to all storage locations Ex-L3Harris executive sentenced to 87 months in prison for selling zero-day exploits to Russian broker Treasury Sanctions Exploit Broker Network for Theft and Sale of U.S. Government Cyber Tools Risky Bulletin: Russia starts criminal probe of Telegram founder Pavel Durov Ukraine pushes tighter Telegram regulation, citing Russian recruitment of locals The watchers: how openai, the US government, and persona built an identity surveillance machine that files reports on you to the feds Persona emails customers saying they don't work with ICE or DHS amid ‘surveillance' claims Inside the Fix: Analysis of In-the-Wild Exploit of CVE-2026-21513 Ivanti hacked in 2021 via its own product Fed agencies ordered to patch Dell bug by Saturday after exploitation warning | The Record from Recorded Future News From BRICKSTORM to GRIMBOLT: UNC6201 Exploiting a Dell RecoverPoint for Virtual Machines Zero-Day

Feb 24, 2026 – What if the massive disruption we've seen in the stock market from AI is just the beginning of a much deeper transformation? In this compelling conversation, Cris Sheridan sits down with strategist Robert Van Battenburg...

Mark Zuckerberg's Meta is planning stablecoin comeback in the second half of this year. White House reiterates Trump has no plans to pardon Sam Bankman-Fried. DSRV and SBI Ripple Asia will test cross border payments on XRP Ledger.Brought to you by

Leah speaks openly about her previous encounter with Deepak Chopra and some other influencers in the spiritual and healing world in regards to the new information about their presence in the Epstein files.Spiritual bypassing, imposter syndrome, ego issues, abuse - the conversation goes into the many problems in the wellness and spiritual healing space. Fed up with being told what to do and how to do it by people who have just as many issues (or more) and in the case of the Epstein files, despicable behavior. How to maneuver through the teachings of wisdom and truth, and hold clear boundaries, while evolving through one's own spiritual journey. It's a bold and winding conversation - a testimony to the heart and truth - that is the goal of this message. To empower one to find their own way, and their own truth.  Thanks for listening! Follow leah on IG, FB & TK @leahthemodernsage for more!

Send a textWe teamed up with Guy Adami and Dan Nathan to discuss two major developing market stories ahead of meeting in Miami for the iConnections Global Alts conference. The first topic is stress in private credit, centered on Blue Owl's retail-focused semi-liquid vehicle (Blue Owl Capital Corp II) facing heavy redemptions and gating, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between retail redemption needs and long-dated loan assets. They contrast the gated evergreen structure with Blue Owl's publicly traded BDC that was trading roughly 20% below NAV, discuss Blue Owl's reported loan sales near NAV, and explore why the issue is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl and Blackstone despite an S&P 500 that appears indifferent. The group connects the private credit conversation to how AI/data center buildouts are financed, including references to Meta-related structures and concerns about CoreWeave's ability to raise capital for data center obligations, and notes that credit markets often reprice quickly only after complacency breaks. The second topic is prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and its partnership with Tradeweb to publish analytics and potentially enable institutional trading of binary outcomes on events like Fed decisions and macro data, raising questions about democratized access, liquidity constraints, regulatory gaps, spoofing, and the role of insider information, along with implications for politics and whether more information is always better.For a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HERE Visit https://iconnections.io/ to learn more about iConnections!Shop our Self Paced Courses: Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERE Wealthfront.com/wss. This is a paid endorsement for Wealthfront. May not reflect others' experiences. Similar outcomes not guaranteed. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. Rate subject to change. Promo terms apply. If eligible for the boosted rate of 4.15% offered in connection with this promo, the boosted rate is also subject to change if base rate decreases during the 3 month promo period.The Cash Account, which is not a deposit account, is offered by Wealthfront Brokerage LLC ("Wealthfront Brokerage"), Member FINRA/SIPC. Wealthfront Brokerage is not a bank. The Annual Percentage Yield ("APY") on cash deposits as of 11/7/25, is representative, requires no minimum, and may change at any time. The APY reflects the weighted average of deposit balances at participating Program Banks, which are not allocated equally. Wealthfront Brokerage sweeps cash balances to Program Banks, where they earn the variable APY. Sources HERE.

Welcome back to All Things Markets — Today, Mike Novogratz and I are ripping into the big stuff: tariffs getting struck down, a potential $56 trillion national debt, and whether the bond market is just calmly whistling past the fiscal graveyard. Mike and I debate Fed cuts, the AI labor shock that could upend the middle class, and why baby boomers may go down as the most overrepresented — and self-interested — generation in modern political history. Buckle up — this one's about power, money, and what kind of future we're actually building. Michael Novogratz is the Founder and CEO of Galaxy Digital. He was formerly a Partner and President of Fortress Investment Group LLC. Mr. Novogratz served on the New York Federal Reserve's Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets from 2012 to 2015. He serves as the Chairman of The Bail Project and has made criminal justice reform a focus of his family's foundation. Follow Anthony on X: https://x.com/Scaramucci Follow Novo on X: https://x.com/novogratz Anthony Scaramucci is the founder and managing partner of SkyBridge, a global alternative investment firm, and founder and chairman of SALT, a global thought leadership forum and venture studio. Pre-order my next book, All the Wrong Moves: How Three Catastrophic Decisions Led to the Rise of Trump, out on the 17th of September in the UK and the 22nd of September in the US: ⁠https://linktr.ee/anthonyscaramucci⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

US equity futures are modestly higher. Asian markets were broadly stronger, while European equities are trading firmer. Markets are stabilizing after pushback against earlier AI disruption fears, with sentiment helped by the Anthropic enterprise event emphasizing partnerships rather than displacement. A major AMD compute deal with Meta and expectations for Nvidia earnings are supporting the chip and AI infrastructure theme. President Trump's State of the Union highlighted economic achievements and outlined retirement and healthcare proposals, while striking a measured tone on tariffs and Iran. Consumer confidence improved in the latest reading, though regional manufacturing data remained soft, and Fed officials signaled inflation progress has slowed, keeping rate expectations cautious.Companies Mentioned: Microsoft, Unity Software

Ben Connard discusses the Fed's path forward and the housing market picture. He thinks we still are seeing who will benefit from AI; he likes Alphabet (GOOGL), highlighting the ways they are outpacing Microsoft (MSFT) and how they are winning in chips and AI models. He thinks investors could see “double digit returns” over the next few years out of GOOGL. He also likes Home Depot (HD) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA), which he says can double as protection from AI.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Anthony Saccaro sees the consumer “cracking a little bit,” and says where we go from here depends on what happens to the consumer. The softening labor market of the last few years is impacting spending, hitting GDP – and putting the Fed “in a pickle.” He thinks the economy is “late cycle.” Anthony notes that wage inflation is very sticky after unusual strength in the labor market a few years ago. He discusses how the Fed can try to hit their inflation target and how they can navigate their dual mandate.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Barry Knapp reacts to the State of the Union address and covers what comes next for trade policy. He thinks the U.S. might have the upper hand in trade, as China will have difficulty sending its exports elsewhere as other countries build up their own manufacturing industries, but notes that the fight has only just begun. Barry walks through Fed dynamics with an incoming Chair, and thinks they need to cut rates to 3%. “We need significant bank regulatory relief,” he adds, as well as a smaller Fed balance sheet.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Jeffrey Praissman sits down with Michael Normyle, NASDAQ's economist, to unpack the Fed's latest message—and why balancing inflation and employment has gotten harder. They discuss AI data-center investment and why it boosts growth more than jobs, how reduced immigration changes the “break-even” pace of hiring, what's driving today's uncertainty, and why small businesses feel higher rates more than large caps.

APAC stocks traded higher as the region took impetus from the rebound on Wall Street after Anthropic's presentation helped soothe some AI/software concerns, and with tech also bolstered by the USD 60bln Meta-AMD chip deal; Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed flat on Tuesday.US President Trump talked up the economy in his State of the Union Address, saying that the nation is back, bigger, better and stronger than before, while he added that we've seen nothing yet.Regarding tariffs, Trump said the Supreme Court decision on tariffs is very unfortunate but added that tariffs will remain in place and nearly all countries want to keep the trade deals.Trump also commented on Iran, which he claimed is working on missiles that could soon reach the US, and noted Iran wants to make a deal but hasn't yet said that it won't pursue nuclear weapons.Antipodeans were firmer amid the positive risk appetite, and with AUD/USD leading the advances following firmer-than-expected monthly CPI data from Australia.Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK (Mar), GDP Final (Q4), Swiss Sentiment (Feb), EZ HICP Final (Jan). Speakers include RBA's Bullock, Fed's Musalem, Barkin & Schmid. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Snowflake, TJX Companies, Lowe's, Synopsys & Bayer.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In this episode recorded immediately after Trump's record-breaking 108-minute State of the Union address, Chuck Todd argues that while Trump's base will love the "own the libs" moments — from trolling Democrats in the chamber to the raucous "USA" chants from Republicans — the speech was fundamentally a missed opportunity that did nothing to help the GOP heading into the midterms. He contends that Trump chose to be a party leader rather than a president, turning the address into something resembling an award show by packing it with medal presentations, the Olympic men's hockey team, honorees who deserved more dedicated recognition rather than being used as applause props in an already bloated speech. He argues that Trump's tone on the economy couldn't have been worse for Republicans: with his approval at 60% disapproval and the Supreme Court having just struck down his tariffs days earlier, Trump barely addressed voters' core concerns about costs and affordability, instead declaring a "turnaround for the ages" that doesn't match most Americans' lived experience. He notes Trump’s highlighting of Iran's ballistic missiles sounded like a pretext for war that won't play well with parts of his own base. He praises Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger's Democratic response as simple and effective — particularly her pointed questions about whether the president is actually working to make life more affordable — and argues she clearly won over independents. He closes with a bigger-picture observation: that there's a 60% majority coalition available on populist economic issues like protecting the safety net from cuts to fund tax breaks for the wealthy, but that Democrats still have a damaged brand despite Trump's terrible numbers, and that voters who thought they were getting first-term Trump are reckoning with something very different. Then, Paul Auslander, President of SeaBridge Private Wealth, a division of SeaBridge Investment Advisors LLC joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the intersection of money, markets, and the current political moment. Auslander walks through how the political climate now factors directly into financial planning projections, noting that European indices doubled the S&P's performance last year as capital flows shift overseas, and that a growing number of wealthy clients are hedging by moving money out of the United States. He offers candid takes on the issues keeping investors up at night: the inevitability of Social Security cuts (though he argues simply pushing retirement age from 67 to 69 would stabilize the fund), the likely future of Social Security privatization, crypto's evolution from a technological revolution into a special interest that bought its own policy outcomes, and whether there's money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to be reversed. Auslander also explains why the bond market is a better barometer of economic health than the stock market, why private equity is sitting on mountains of sidelined capital, and why he remains cautiously bullish on 2026 — largely because AI is only in the "second inning" and massive disruption is still ahead. The conversation also ventures into territory financial planners don't usually discuss publicly. Auslander addresses whether the wealthy are worried the "pitchforks are coming for them," pointing to economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales and a pop culture landscape that increasingly portrays corporations and the ultra-rich as villains. He breaks down the rise of family offices — private wealth management firms for the ultra-wealthy that take a long-term investment view — and explains why companies increasingly choose to stay private thanks to nearly unlimited private capital, rather than face the scrutiny of public markets. They also dig into the generational divide between investing and gambling, the casino-like nature of prediction markets, and the burden that post-Lehman Brothers insurance and regulatory requirements have placed on small businesses and regional banks that had nothing to do with the 2008 financial crisis. Auslander closes with a pointed message: that Fed independence and the rule of law are paramount to economic stability, and that centrism — not ideological extremism — remains the best way to run the country. Finally, Chuck presents his updated ToddCast Top 5 list of senate seats most likely to flip in the midterms and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 03:15 Trump’s base will love “own the libs” moments from SOTU 04:30 Most of Trump’s base was celebrating himself & animating his base 05:15 Trump’s tone on the economy couldn’t have been worse for GOP 06:30 Trump hid behind the glory of others, turned speech into award show 07:45 Awards are an incredible honor, deserved more time & recognition 09:30 Hopefully the recipients get dedicated events to honor them 10:00 Overloading the speech with awards felt a bit gimmicky 11:00 Trump mostly bit his tongue when addressing SCOTUS 11:30 Trump chose to be a party leader rather than president, trolled Dems 12:15 Spanberger’s response to SOTU was simple & effective 14:00 Spanberger definitely did better with independents than Trump 14:45 Trump’s proposal to make AI companies provide their power is a winner 15:15 Trump highlighting Iran’s ballistic missiles sounds like a pretext for war 16:30 Attacking Iran won’t play well with parts of Trump’s base 17:30 Trump didn’t talk about Venezuelan democracy, just oil 18:15 Trump’s still working with the Maduro regime 19:45 Are we trying to prevent Iranian nukes, or attempting regime change? 20:30 Trump claiming credit for getting Mexican cartel leader is a big faux pax 21:45 Allies feel like Trump will sell them out just so he can take credit 22:30 Trump didn’t address voters concerns on costs & the economy 23:45 Trump is better on the attack than defending his record 24:30 The speech didn’t give Republicans a boost for the midterms 25:30 Most Americans don’t support cutting safety net for tax cuts 27:30 There’s a 60% majority to be had on economic issues, not cultural ones 29:15 Voters keep picking the out party 30:30 There’s a majority coalition to be won with populist economic policy 32:30 This could be a moment for candidates to shed the party label 33:00 Democrats will have a strong midterm just being against Trump 33:45 Class politics could create a strong majority 35:30 Voters thought they’d get 1st term Trump, not what they’re getting 45:30 Paul Auslander joins the Chuck ToddCast 47:00 Paul’s origin story 48:15 Financial planning was mostly done by insurance companies in 70’s 49:00 Northerners move to FL for taxes & weather, but FL is pushing it socially 51:30 Fiduciary responsibility is the line of demarcation in financial planning 52:30 Factoring the political climate into financial planning projections 54:00 European index doubled the performance of the S&P last year 55:00 Tax policy is generally the biggest concern for investors 57:30 A cut to social security payments is bound to happen 58:30 If you push retirement from 67 to 69 the SS fund becomes healthy 1:00:45 Social security privatization likely to happen in the future 1:02:45 Money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to go away? 1:03:45 Crypto became a special interest & bought support for pro crypto policy 1:05:30 Crypto is a revolution that predates Trump & will outlast him 1:07:00 Lesson to be learned from rise then collapse in price of silver? 1:08:00 Central banks are buying silver, gold and assets 1:09:30 How many people are hedging by moving money out of the U.S.? 1:10:15 Europe is spending big money on arms & infrastructure 1:11:30 Definition of a “Family Office” 1:14:00 Family office investments are increasingly popular & take the long view 1:15:30 Are the investors/wealthy worried the pitchforks are coming for them? 1:17:00 Economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales 1:18:30 Pop culture portrays corporations & wealthy as the villains 1:20:00 Private equity has a lot of money on the sideline, looking for investments 1:23:00 The burden of insurance requirements on small business 1:25:30 Small & regional banks paying for the sins of Lehman Brothers 1:26:30 Companies stay private due to near unlimited private capital 1:27:15 Do young people like investing… or do they just like gambling? 1:28:15 Thoughts on prediction markets? 1:29:30 There’s a casino like approach to certain markets 1:30:45 If the house flips, you could see money get withdrawn from markets 1:32:00 How do Trump’s relationships with world leaders affect projections? 1:33:15 The bond market is more indicative of economic health than stock market 1:34:15 Uncertainty will impact earnings 1:34:45 Why are you feeling bullish on 2026? 1:37:00 AI is only in the 2nd inning. Disruption is coming 1:40:00 Thom Tillis sounds like a different man now that he’s retiring 1:41:00 Centrism seems like the best way to run the country 1:43:00 AI won’t be replacing financial advisors anytime soon 1:45:15 What’s one question you want every presidential candidate to answer? 1:45:45 Fed independence and rule of law are paramount 1:47:30 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Paul Auslander 1:48:45 ToddCast Top senate seats most likely to flip in midterms 1:49:00 #1 North Carolina 1:50:45 #2 Maine 1:53:45 #3 Michigan 1:58:15 #4 Alaska 2:01:15 #5 Texas 2:06:30 Honorable mentions: South Dakota & Minnesota 2:11:30 Ask Chuck 2:11:45 Promoting tariffs & AI have to only be bad for Trump? 2:12:45 Can Republicans not endorsed by Trump win their primaries? 2:14:15 Will lifting pesticide bans cause MAHA voters to turn on Trump?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Paul Auslander, President of SeaBridge Private Wealth, a division of SeaBridge Investment Advisors LLC joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the intersection of money, markets, and the current political moment. Auslander walks through how the political climate now factors directly into financial planning projections, noting that European indices doubled the S&P's performance last year as capital flows shift overseas, and that a growing number of wealthy clients are hedging by moving money out of the United States. He offers candid takes on the issues keeping investors up at night: the inevitability of Social Security cuts (though he argues simply pushing retirement age from 67 to 69 would stabilize the fund), the likely future of Social Security privatization, crypto's evolution from a technological revolution into a special interest that bought its own policy outcomes, and whether there's money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to be reversed. Auslander also explains why the bond market is a better barometer of economic health than the stock market, why private equity is sitting on mountains of sidelined capital, and why he remains cautiously bullish on 2026 — largely because AI is only in the "second inning" and massive disruption is still ahead. The conversation also ventures into territory financial planners don't usually discuss publicly. Auslander addresses whether the wealthy are worried the "pitchforks are coming for them," pointing to economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales and a pop culture landscape that increasingly portrays corporations and the ultra-rich as villains. He breaks down the rise of family offices — private wealth management firms for the ultra-wealthy that take a long-term investment view — and explains why companies increasingly choose to stay private thanks to nearly unlimited private capital, rather than face the scrutiny of public markets. They also dig into the generational divide between investing and gambling, the casino-like nature of prediction markets, and the burden that post-Lehman Brothers insurance and regulatory requirements have placed on small businesses and regional banks that had nothing to do with the 2008 financial crisis. Auslander closes with a pointed message: that Fed independence and the rule of law are paramount to economic stability, and that centrism — not ideological extremism — remains the best way to run the country. Go to https://zbiotics.com/CHUCKTODDCAST and use CHUCKTODDCAST at checkout for 15% off any first time orders of ZBiotics probiotics.” Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. American Finance Disclaimer: NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.196% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-885-1081, for details about credit costs and terms. Or https://apply.americanfinancing.net/thechucktoddcast Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Paul Auslander joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:30 Paul’s origin story 02:45 Financial planning was mostly done by insurance companies in 70’s 03:30 Northerners move to FL for taxes & weather, but FL is pushing it socially 06:00 Fiduciary responsibility is the line of demarcation in financial planning 07:00 Factoring the political climate into financial planning projections 08:30 European index doubled the performance of the S&P last year 09:30 Tax policy is generally the biggest concern for investors 12:00 A cut to social security payments is bound to happen 13:00 If you push retirement from 67 to 69 the SS fund becomes healthy 15:15 Social security privatization likely to happen in the future 17:15 Money to be made off bad Trump policies that are likely to go away? 18:15 Crypto became a special interest & bought support for pro crypto policy 20:00 Crypto is a revolution that predates Trump & will outlast him 21:30 Lesson to be learned from rise then collapse in price of silver? 22:30 Central banks are buying silver, gold and assets 24:00 How many people are hedging by moving money out of the U.S.? 24:45 Europe is spending big money on arms & infrastructure 26:00 Definition of a “Family Office” 28:30 Family office investments are increasingly popular & take the long view 30:00 Are the investors/wealthy worried the pitchforks are coming for them? 31:30 Economic anxiety driving a spike in gun sales 33:00 Pop culture portrays corporations & wealthy as the villains 34:30 Private equity has a lot of money on the sideline, looking for investments 37:30 The burden of insurance requirements on small business 40:00 Small & regional banks paying for the sins of Lehman Brothers 41:00 Companies stay private due to near unlimited private capital 41:45 Do young people like investing… or do they just like gambling? 42:45 Thoughts on prediction markets? 44:00 There’s a casino like approach to certain markets 45:15 If the house flips, you could see money get withdrawn from markets 46:30 How do Trump’s relationships with world leaders affect projections? 47:45 The bond market is more indicative of economic health than stock market 48:45 Uncertainty will impact earnings 49:15 Why are you feeling bullish on 2026? 51:30 AI is only in the 2nd inning. Disruption is coming 54:30 Thom Tillis sounds like a different man now that he’s retiring 55:30 Centrism seems like the best way to run the country 57:30 AI won’t be replacing financial advisors anytime soon 59:45 What’s one question you want every presidential candidate to answer? 1:00:15 Fed independence and rule of law are paramountSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he still believes in a growth cycle for equity markets, even as investors show growing concerns around AI.Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption. It's Tuesday, February 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market. The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption, once again, dominated investor conversations. But beneath the surface level unease something important happened. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well. On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions. On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years. Let's unpack this. First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses. But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase-in period. Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight. Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption. That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes. That takes time, and it is still early days in that regard. Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle. Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending. Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers. Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply. There's also something different this time compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Today we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop. We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. So, as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long-term AI beneficiaries, it's also finding classic cyclical winners. On the losing side is long duration services-oriented sectors, particularly software. These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows. This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last 10 to 15 years. There are other forces at play too. Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair. While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Warsh's, reputation as a balance sheet hawk. Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed chairs assume office. Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact. Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy. That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample, but far from abundant. With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with healthcare makes sense. In small caps, the higher quality S&P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2000. And any short-term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Industrials, and Financials. Of course, risks remain. AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly. Pricing power could erode as efficiency spread, and policy makers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable. Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear. Beneath the volatility this looks less like a market rolling over, and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

For more than a decade, the mantra for boosting your career and income was simple: learn to code. Becoming a programmer or engineer was seen as the clearest path to job security and high pay. But with the rapid rise of AI, coding is no longer the protective moat it once was. As I revisited my own FIRE plans after leaving work in 2012, I realized the one financial buffer that has consistently stood the test of time: knowing how to invest well. Forget "learn to code." Learn to invest. Becoming a competent investor may be the most important skill you develop to survive - and thrive - in the coming AI wave. Posts mentioned: Becoming A Competent Investor Is A Vital Skill To Master Gain Financial Security By Creating Financial Buffers For Your Financial Buffers The FIRE Movement Is So Back Due To AI Disruption Free Financial Analysis Offer From Empower Stay on top of your net worth with Empower, the web's #1 free financial app. Track your cash flow, x-ray your investment portfolio for excessive fees and inappropriate risk exposure, and use their retirement calculator to plan for the future. If you have over $100,000 in investable assets—whether in savings, taxable brokerage accounts, 401(k)s, or IRAs—you can sign up for a free financial check-up from a professional at Empower. It's a no-obligation opportunity to have a seasoned advisor—someone who analyzes portfolios for a living—take a fresh look at your finances. A professional review can help you identify hidden fees, inefficient allocations, or missed opportunities to grow and protect your wealth. More importantly, it can give you the clarity and confidence to know whether your current savings and investment strategy aligns with your long-term financial goals. I've taken advantage of three free consultations with Empower over the past decade and each session has helped me build more wealth. There's no rewind button in life. Make the most of everything, especially things that are helpful and free. The statement is provided to you by Financial Samurai ("Promoter") who has entered into a written referral agreement with Empower Advisory Group, LLC ("EAG").  Diversify Your Retirement Investments Stocks and bonds are classic staples for retirement investing. However, I also suggest diversifying into real estate. It is an investment that combines the income stability of bonds with greater upside potential. Consider Fundrise, a platform that allows you to 100% passively invest in residential and industrial real estate. With over $3.5 billion in private real estate assets under management, Fundrise focuses on properties in the Sunbelt region, where valuations are lower, and yields tend to be higher. Residential commercial real estate is attract. Meanwhile, the Fed is set to cut rates further. I've personally invested over $500,000 with Fundrise, and they've been a trusted partner and long-time sponsor of Financial Samurai. With a $10 investment minimum, diversifying your portfolio has never been easier. Subscribe To Financial Samurai To increase your chances of achieving financial independence, join 60,000+ readers and subscribe to my free Financial Samurai newsletter here. Financial Samurai began in 2009 and is the leading independently-owned personal finance site today. 

Feb 23, 2026 – Are high taxes quietly eroding more of your income than you realize—especially if you live in a blue state? Jim Puplava explains how to lower adjusted gross income using above-the-line deductions such as 401(k)s, SEP-IRAs...

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LPL's Chief Economist, Dr. Jeffrey Roach highlights what lies ahead for businesses and the economy as Fed officials highlight potential financial risks, the potential for a rebound in growth, and tariff impacts on our trading partners. Tracking: #1069779

Are we in an AI-driven financial bubble? New York Times financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin, author of a new book on the 1929 stock market crash, thinks so. "I just can't tell you when, and I can't tell you how deep," he has said. "But I can assure you, unfortunately, I wish I wasn't saying this, we will have a crash.” But other experts, notably Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, doesn't think the AI boom is another dot-com bubble. “These companies … actually have business models and profits... So it's really a different thing,” Powell said in October. So what's the average consumer and investor to do? In Commonwealth Club World Affairs' annual economic forecast, our experts will go beyond the hype and doomsaying to break down what it all means for your bottom line. Will the stock market continue to rally, or will there be a correction? How will tariff chaos and the immigration crackdown impact the economy? What can we expect with future interest rate cuts, and with President Trump's efforts to influence the Fed? We'll take up those questions and much more with our expert panel. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Ryan McMaken traces the rise and squeeze of America's small business economy, showing how tariffs, industrial policy, the Fed, and “too big to fail” bailouts systematically tilt the field toward big corporations and away from independent entrepreneurs and the middle class.Recorded in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, on February 21, 2026. Special thanks to Michael and Beverley Starkey and Gil Robinson for sponsoring this event.

This week the stagflation theme refused to fade. On Friday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released the PCE price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation. Headline and core PCE rose 2.9 per cent and 3.0 per cent respectively. More troubling than the levels was the recent momentum. Inflation has firmed over the past three months, an unwelcome development that further complicates the Fed's path forward. The same release cycle brought a softer than expected Q4 2025 GDP report. Headline growth registered just 1.4 per cent, unsettling markets. Consumption cooled from recent quarters, but the reaction to the top line number appears excessive. The government shutdown alone shaved nearly a full percentage point from growth, distorting the underlying signal. Taken together, the data reinforce a familiar and uncomfortable mix: slower activity alongside renewed price pressures. For central bankers, it is the most awkward of combinations.

Anthropic could be one of the biggest market movers despite it being a private company, says Kevin Hincks. He set the stage for the Claude parent's product announcement ahead of the event. Kevin touches on the macro front by talking about Austan Goolsbee's comments that inflation should be at 2% before the Fed cuts interest rates further. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

“There's a lot on investors' minds at the moment,” says Kelly Bouchillon. He digs into the Fed's potential rate cut path, with multiple Fed speakers throughout Tuesday's session. Retail investors are seeing their accounts near highs, Kelly says, and now they need to figure out how to protect it. Despite worries around defending gains, he's staying optimistic on the U.S. and international equities.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Episode 141 – The Metal Maniacs Podcast w/ Jay Ingersoll & ModdThe Michigan death metal titans NOCICEPTION return to the Metal Maniacs Podcast — and they're coming in heavier, faster, and more lethal than ever. With a brand-new album on the horizon, we sit down with the full lineup to talk history, evolution, and the absolute brutality that is their upcoming 2026 release:Cognitive DismembermentComing March 2026Nociception's newest chapter is a complete demolition of their past discography: sharper riffs, monstrous vocals, airtight drumming, and production that hits like a cement truck. The tone is clear but devastating, the bass tone is monstrous, and Dylan's vocal enunciation is razor-focused. This is the band at their technical and creative peak.Meet the Members:

Paul Nolte, Senior Wealth Advisor & Market Strategist for Murphy & Sylvest, joins Bob Sirott to explain why yesterday’s stocks were down and concerns about AI hurting the tech sector. He also discusses why the Fed could raise rates and three important reports that investors are looking out for.

APAC mostly firmer as China returned, somewhat shrugging off the weak Wall St. finish on AI disruption concerns.DXY marginally firmer, EUR/USD directionless, while USD/JPY edged higher and above 155.00.USTs pulled back from Monday's best, Bunds remained near highs, while JGBs saw choppy action after the long weekend.Crude remained tentative amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, XAU faded while copper rallied as China returned.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses slip as AI concerns hit European Banks; US equity futures rebound slightly.JPY dragged on reports PM Takaichi raised reservations about rate hikes to BoJ Governor Ueda; DXY slightly firmer.Gilts notch a fresh contract high into the TSC, USTs rangebound heading into heavy speaker docket.WTI and Brent mildly gains; Spot gold retreats from Monday's best while Copper gains as mainland China returns. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Mortgage rates just dropped to 5.99% — the lowest level in nearly three years.HOME.COM   Article  https://www.homes.com/news/daily-mortgage-rates-dip-to-5-99/1356105419/But here's the twist:The Federal Reserve says no rate cuts are coming because inflation is still too high.President Donald Trump is calling for rate cuts.Inflation remains sticky.Tariffs are creating uncertainty.The Supreme Court just struck down major trade policy.The jobs market is sending mixed signals.Bond markets are reacting.So how are mortgage rates falling without a Fed cut?In this episode, we break down:• Why mortgage rates follow the bond market — not the Fed Funds Rate• What's happening with the 10-Year Treasury• How inflation expectations are driving mortgage pricing• Whether 5.99% can last• What this means for buyers, refinancers, and homeownersThis is the disconnect nobody is explaining clearly.Every day, we pull real pricing from 30+ lenders and show you exactly what you qualify for — plus lock vs. float guidance tied to CPI, Jobs, MBS & the 10-Year Treasury.Transparent. Data-driven. No hype.

You asked, we answered. On today's show, we tackle questions from our dear listeners on whether AI interviewers are biased, what the heck M2 money supply is, and what's up with the frenzied mobs fighting for rotisserie chickens at the grocery store. Related episodes: When AI is your job interviewerHow beef climbed to the top of the food pyramidRetirement luck, Hassett hassles the Fed, and boneless chicken in ... court? Behind the Tiny Desk and other listener questions For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Reality distortion fields aren't just for Steve Jobs anymore - they're everywhere in our sclerotic institutions, and the latest examples show just how disconnected official narratives are from what's actually happening.

Keith digs into what's really going on with apartments now that values in many markets have dropped 20–40%. You'll hear why larger multifamily properties have been hit so much harder than one-to-four unit rentals, and what that means for both current owners and new buyers. "The Apartment King," Brad Sumrok, joins the conversation to share how recent economic shifts, financing structures, and market forces have reshaped the apartment landscape—and why he believes we may be near a key turning point in the cycle. You'll also learn how investors are approaching deals differently today, what makes certain markets and property types more attractive right now.  Resources: Learn more about Brad here. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/594 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold us. Apartment Building values have fallen 2030, even, 40% over the past few years. Investors lost millions. What are all the reasons that it happened? And when will apartments turn around? I'm joined by the apartment king today on get rich education.   Corey Coates  0:26   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold, writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Keith Weinhold  1:09   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com you   Corey Coates  1:40   you're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:59   Welcome to GRE from Monterrey, California to Monterrey, Mexico and across 188 nations worldwide. America's favorite shaved mammal on a microphone has got his slack. John, act back on track for another wealth building week with you. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is get rich education, and I'm still not wearing a pair of Dockers. We all know that the one to four unit space single family homes, up to four plexes have held under their values despite soured affordability, but five plus unit apartment buildings are a drastically different story. We're going to talk about just how much value they've lost recently, and the reasons why it's about more than just the interest rates doubling and tripling that began in 2022 Today's guest is an apartment educator. His students have had both losses and wins over time. I'll ask about both, because adversity is where you get the lessons now today, you might buy an apartment building at a steep discount compared to what it sold for five years ago. And who might you buy an apartment from today, it might not be the type of seller that you're thinking about because of owners defaulting you might now be buying it from a bank that had to basically repossess it. Yeah, you might try to buy it from a lender at 60% of the loan amount. Well, a lender doesn't want to do a 40% write down, so they're going to try to get more and see. That's how this could practically look today for an apartment owner that survived the crisis and is still standing today. They're asking themselves, now, why would I sell at a discount if I don't have to? So they're probably going to try to hold on. And then, of course, the tenants in these apartments don't know that any of this is going on now. I own a lot of single family rental homes myself, also apartment buildings in the one to one and a half million dollar range is where I've played, and often that ends up being eight to 12 units, because in that space, I don't need partners to invest in assets of that size. One to $2 million is also small enough so that you're not competing with institutional money and other players. Today, I'll tell you what I did with some of those buildings myself when interest rates reset about four years ago, and before you and I wrap up the show today, I've got something to tell you about what's coming in future. GRE episodes here stuff that's really unexpected as the apartment King waits in the wings. One last thing to tell you about, like I mentioned to you recently, investors say that they want an opportunity, but what they really want is certainty. Once certainty arrives, the opportunity. Is gone.    Keith Weinhold  5:01   Our GRE live event last Thursday was a success. It is about how central Florida is the most compelling housing market right now, with the builder offering rate buy downs as low as 3.75% and, you know, I just ran the numbers on something, and I can hardly believe this. All right, right. Now owner occupied mortgage rates are near 6% this means investment property rates are almost 7% with the rate by down to 4% here's how your cash flow looks with a 30 year fixed rate mortgage on a 300k loan with a 7% rate, your p and i payment is 1996 at a 4% rate. It's just 1432, this is a reduction of $564 per month, a whopping payment difference. That's really the difference between treading water and stacking cash flow on these brand new build properties that we're talking about here in Central Florida. So talking about opportunity and certainty, that is a big measure of both. Yeah, before I ran the numbers, I didn't realize that the spread was this wide. With high demand for these properties, the builder does have some more available, a long term fixed rate of around 4% it should be up for you now you can see the limited time replay of GRE, freshest live event at grewebinars.com, in case you want to look into This again, grewebinars.com let's discuss the apartment market. Foreign apartment building values have fallen at 20% 30% even 40% over the past few years, depending on the market that they're in today, we're going to learn how bad it is, why it happened, and if that actually creates an opportunity here in the late 2020s, decade, our guest is known as the apartment king. He is the number one nationally known educator and mentor for apartment investing. He started with a bang in 2002 by making his first ever real estate investment, not a four Plex like I did, but a 32 unit apartment building, and he's now owned and invested in over 11,000 units and over 1 billion in assets under management. He's received awards like the naa independent owner of the year, and he's the star of the massively popular in person events that he puts on, which you'll learn about soon. Hey, it's been several years. Welcome back to the show. Brad sumrock,   Brad Sumrok  7:46   hey, Keith. It's really good to be on again. Nice to be here.   Keith Weinhold  7:50   Brad and I were together in person last month, and we also talked physical fitness. Then Brad is one of the fittest guys you'll ever meet in person. He just looks fantastic. We want to hear about your apartment forecast shortly. Brad, let's talk about the hard stuff. First, you've endured adversity since we last had you here several years ago. Tell us about that.   Brad Sumrok  8:14    Well, look, I mean, I think anyone that's been serious about investing in apartments over the last five years. And I'll also say it this way, anyone who did a deal and say 21 the middle of 21 till probably the end of 2022 it's very likely that that property is worth less today than than it was when we bought it. So that, in itself, has created, you know, adversity, because I got into the business in 2002 and the market went up until 2008 and we went through a downturn in 2008 nine and 10, as is, I'm sure you're aware. And then the market went up again until around 2021, mid year. And then, due to so many reasons, and I could go into those reasons, but let me just just cut to the chase. That you alluded to is we had another downturn, and so the downturn, you know, impacts property values, it impacts confidence, it impacts investor appetite to do deals. It impacts just about everything related to the business, on the investment side, and the other business that I'm in, which is the seminars, the events and the mentoring. So it's been a big downturn, and we could go into those, you know, into the reasons why, and I'm sure you'd like to know my take on that. But now is a great time, because things are recovering, and one of the things Tony Robbins teaches Keith is pattern recognition. It's like I've been through two downturns, and I could see the patterns, and it occurs to me that we're at or near the bottom of a cycle. So like it's also a good time to be gearing up.   Keith Weinhold  9:50   Now, many realize but for those uninitiated on this, the one to four unit space really didn't feel much pain starting in 2022 so much of that is time. Two people get long term fixed interest rate debt on the one to four unit property, but it's shorter term debt on five plus unit apartment buildings. So when interest rates went up, people soon had to pay those higher rates. They were underwater. That's really the genesis of so much of the apartment building pain.   Brad Sumrok  10:19   Well, and I would say, look, it was, I'm going to throw a bunch of things at you here. So we had the pandemic, right? And during the pandemic, people got paid to stay home from work, right? The government printed, what, $5 trillion worth of money, right? And so that kicked off what became a period of, like, very high inflation. And you know, the published number was 9% but I think a lot of people experience certain items that were a lot more than 9% like, for example, for sure, in 2022 when we bought a 286 unit property, you know, we were able to replace all the appliances inside of a unit in The kitchen, you know, for $1,800 and even today it's like $3,200 so that's a little bit more than 9% and so we had that. So we had the printing of money, we had inflation, we had variable rate debt. Why did people do variable rate debt? The first thing I'll say is there is a place for variable rate debt. But what happened in 2021 and 2022 is the fixed rate lenders, which are typically the government sponsored agencies Fannie and Freddie. They were still lending money, but because of their criteria for lending, if you would go with one of those loans, you would get like 50% leverage the shorter term lenders that would give you the three year loans, you can still get like 75 to 80% leverage. So the vast amount of people that were buying anything in 2021 and 2022 I mean, I'm not just talking about myself. I'm talking about people with 2030, 4050, 70,000 doors all over the country, they were buying with short term debt. And historically, short term debt performs at or better than long term debt. I mean, think about it, when you get a long term, 10 year fixed rate loan and multifamily you have prepayment penalties. You know, when the market's constantly going up like it did, from 2012 to 2022 you could get that fixed term loan. You could pay it off early, you could pay the seven figure prepayment penalty, and you could still make lots and lots of money, and that's what people were doing. So when you bake in the prepayment penalties on long term debt, you know short term debt is oftentimes the better option. Well, nobody saw the Fed raising rate 16 times in 12 months. And look, I don't care what anybody says, Nobody predicted it. If they had predicted it, they would be probably the richest person in the world right now, right nobody saw a comment like, there may have been some people that said, hey, yeah, this is going to happen, or this is going to happen. But what actually happened with the Fed rates over a very short period of time was unprecedented. Unprecedented means it never happened before. So it's not something you could anticipate or something anyone can model. Okay? And so what that did is most of us had what's called an interest rate cap, which is an insurance policy that if the rates go up too much, that yours is capped. But the problem with those rate caps is they're only good for like, two years, right? So we're buying these deals in 2021 and we're getting short term debt, which is a three year debt. And in two years, in 2023 the rate cap expires, and now the rates are 9% instead of 3% and when we bought the deal, the rate cap insurance was $40,000 and now it's a million dollars. And so you're in a very awkward, unfriendly financial situation. And it wasn't just that. So it wasn't just inflation, it wasn't just interest rates. And many of us sung belt markets, specifically Texas and Florida, which historically have been some of the best markets to invest in, because of migration and no taxes, and then landlord and business friendly environments. Well, these states also suffered a lot of named storms, with, you know, hurricanes and wind storms and hail storms and so in these markets, at the same time, we had rising rates. At the same time, we had massive inflation. Now we also have insurance rates doubling or even tripling in some occasions. And then the final thing was, during the pandemic, a lot of the multifamily projects that were in the middle of being built, these development projects, they all slowed down. People couldn't work. And so back in 2020, or after we're fully recovered from the pandemic, some of these markets, like Nashville and Austin and Dallas and Houston and Phoenix, they got deluged Keith with new supply coming on, like a disproportionate amount of new supply. So there's like five. Five things that contributed to multifamily being really tough in the last few years. And so it wasn't just people with short term debt that had challenges. It was probably just about anybody that bought a deal within an 18 month timeframe that I outlined before that just really experienced challenges, and some of those people are still in deals, right? And so let's just take a deal that's, you know, a $10 million deal with a $7 million loan. Well, that deal right now might be only worth 7 million, yeah, and that's the opportunity. So the owner that has that deal may get punched in the face, so to speak, you know, by the market, and they may lose their equity in that deal, but the borrower coming in, or the buyer coming in, like one of my mentees right now, had a deal that was listed at 11 million, and he's picking it up for seven, which is, like, at or below the current loan value. So one buyer group's loss is the new buyer group's opportunity, if that makes sense   Keith Weinhold  16:03    right? 100% there's nothing unusual at all about the mortgage rate levels that began to go higher about four years ago. The unusual part, and Brad has touched on it, is the rate of increase, with mortgage rates doubling or tripling in a short period of time, within about a year or so, but yeah, it's a great point. It's about more than the mortgage rates. It's about increasing insurance costs and increasing expenses of all types, like you talked about with the appliances there, and then, even if you were able to weather all that as an apartment building owner, with all of the supply coming on to the market, when supply exceeds demand, we know what happens to price, and we also know that you can't raise rents very much with all of this supply coming on the market, but the supply of new apartment buildings, that inflow, that wave, is beginning to die down, because builders got the memo quite a while ago that they need to stop building at such a fast pace in places like Florida and Texas and you know, Brad, there are a lot of asset classes that have been beaten up lately. We can always point to a few. You can look at Bitcoin or nfts or even commercial office space. Now those assets might bounce back, but they don't have to, because no human needs those things. But I expect apartments to bounce back because having a place to live is a primordial Maslow and human need. It's almost inevitable. In fact, shelter is at the base of Maslow's hierarchy of needs. So a bounce back has almost got to happen. Yeah.   Brad Sumrok  17:46   Look, it's becoming the big word right now in politics. Right is affordability. And so when you look at affordability, if you take a median priced home in this country of say, $400,000 I don't know if that's the actual median, but maybe it's around 400 420,000 100, $420,000 yes, to buy that home. And who's going to buy a $420,000 home? It's going to be a working class family making 60 to 70,000 a year, right? They could rent a median priced apartment unit for $1,800 a month, or they could pay a 20% or a 10% down payment on a $400,000 homes, and they need 40 to 80,000 down right, or maybe less, but they still need a down payment and that p i, t i, the principal, interest, tax and insurance is going to be around $3,100 okay, so there's a $1,300 per month gap, and that's a big, big gap for that working class family. And so where are they going to live? Like we're becoming more and more of a renter nation? Keith, and the statistics that I read say that only 27% of American families can even qualify to get a mortgage, yeah, on a $400,000 home. So we're becoming more and more and more of a nation of renters by necessity. And so the demographics like look, all markets are not equal. You got to know what's going on in your market. But there are markets, ie locations, geographies that have even a higher affordability gap. You know, some markets have a 2000 a month or a $2,500 a month affordability gap. So you're going to find more and more people renting in these markets.   Keith Weinhold  19:37   Yes, there is a premium to ownership opening up that gap, and that's why we have this wave of renters that's really already begun. In about the last year, the American homeownership rate has fallen from 66% to 65% 1% doesn't sound like much, but that already means that we have 1.3 million new renters. We're going to talk to Brad some more, including about. His apartment market forecast you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is apartment King. Brad sumrock, more when we come back, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold,    Keith Weinhold  20:09   flock homes helps you retire from real estate and landlording, whether it's one problem property or your whole portfolio through a 721 exchange, deferring your capital gains tax and depreciation recapture. It's a strategy long used by the ultra wealthy. Now Mom and Pop landlords can 721, the residential real estate request your initial valuation, see if your properties qualify@flockhomes.com slash GRE. That's f, l, O, C, K, homes.com/gre,   Keith Weinhold  20:45   you know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products. They've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep. Text their freedom. Coach, directly. Again. 1-937-795-8989,   Hal Elrod  21:58   this is Hal Elrod, author of The Miracle Morning, and listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  22:13   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. We're talking about a sector we have not talked about very much lately because it's been in rather moribund condition, but we are beginning to turn the corner where there are more opportunities in apartment building investing, because it's been beaten down an awful lot. And Brad, that plays right in to your apartment forecast. So tell us about some of the highlights of your apartment forecast.   Brad Sumrok  22:38   Yeah, sure. And one of the things that I want to share with you, Keith, is that, you know, back in the peak of the market, the market peaked, say, at the end of 21 early 22 there were so many investors that were in multifamily or that wanted to be in multifamily. And the other thing that caused this so called, you know, downturn that I didn't mention before is, let's take this $10 million deal. If a property was listed at $10 million you'd literally have 30 to 40 buyer groups pursuing that deal, bidding up the price. Yeah. And so a $10 million Listing would sell for 11 and a half million Okay, now what I'm seeing is that same $10 million deal might sell for a seven to 8 million and you might be the only buyer going after the deal. Wow. And how do I know? Because you said, like, I run a an investor community and and I have active multifamily buyers, and I coach them, and I look at their deals, and this is what's happening. And the other reason I know is I sold two of my deals personally in 2025 and both of the deals that I sold, I bought in 2015 where we had 10 year fixed rate debt. So we didn't sell because we had a three year loan. We needed to sell because we had a 10 year loan due. And look, first thing I'll say is I made money, because over that 10 year period, values did go up. They peaked in 2022 and they came back down that because I bought it so long ago. That's the one lesson that I think people also want to understand, is over the long term, the values always tend to go up, but there are short term ups and downs that one would need to be aware of. But when I sold these two deals like I didn't have many buyers one deal in particular. I mean, I had eight buyers going after the deal, but only one was anywhere close to what I wanted. So I was negotiating with myself, you know, telling the buyer and his broker, hey, you know the other guys are here, and you got to come up on price and you got to come up on terms. But truthfully, I was bluffing, because I didn't have anybody that was coming up on price or coming up on terms. And so part of why I'm answering this way is when you look at the forecast, one thing that that I want people to know is that those. Of us that are in the business now and that have our pencils up, and we're underwriting deals, and we're making offers, like I used to teach Keith, don't make lowball offers, because you'll develop a reputation of being that guy or that borrower or that buyer that submits lowball offers, right? And word will get around in that market? Well, right now, like low ball offers are expected, and I would encourage people, let's just say you make an offer that whatever the deal pencils out to. So if you know how to underwrite deals correctly, and they're offering 10 million as a listing price, and you're coming up at seven or 7.5 don't be bashful to make the offer, and you may be the only buyer in the game. So that's one thing is like the competition that I'm seeing right now on the buyer side is not a lot of competition, and that's definitely shifted to a buyer's market. So people need to know that. The other thing I would say, on the macro level, is there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, and the uncertainty is kind of becoming like what I would call a new normal. You know? I'll speak for myself. When Trump was elected and at the end of 2024 I thought it was going to be amazingly well for all of us real estate investors, right? And there are some things that have been like the big, beautiful bill that restores 100% bonus depreciation like this is a really good thing, but you know, the tariffs, the immigration policies, some of the things that he's doing, you know, they have mixed impact for us and our in the economy and in real estate and in multifamily. And the thing is, when he first started doing that again, like lenders, they didn't know how to price debt, like, what's going to happen with tariffs, what's going to happen with ice what's going to happen with immigration, you know? But now that we're a year in to his second term, I can tell you a couple things. Debt is back. Lenders are lending. They're confident. Lenders are issuing debt like you can get 70 to 75% of your acquisition funded by a commercial lender. The government agencies are lending. Freddie Mac is lending. Fannie Mae is lending, and they have a mandate to lend 20% more money in 2026 than they did in 2025 so that bodes well for people that want to get, you know, affordable workforce housing, which is my specialty, also known as Class B and Class C housing. So the lenders are lending like, there's a lot of debt out there. One of the challenges is the equity. There's a lot of institutional equity. But if you're going to the retail investor who got into the business three to five years ago. They don't want to hear about your next deal right now, they're wondering about, hey, what about the deals that I'm in? Right? So one of the things that I'm doing, Keith is, and I think, you know, this is like, you know, I build up a huge investor community from 2012 to 2022 and I did it by traveling the country, speaking at conferences, sponsoring trade shows, talking about the benefits of investing in apartment buildings, how it changed my life, how it enabled me to retire from a six figure income in just three years, and how I've helped many, many other people Do the same, and also just sharing experience today, every asset class, every 10 to 15 years is going to go through a correction. And so where we're at now. And I wasn't the only one on the forecast. I brought in John Chang who is the senior intelligence officer at Marcus and millichep, one of the biggest commercial real estate firms in the country, and he presented about 20 or 30 slides that by and large were very bullish on where we're at in the market cycle. Why now is a great time to be looking at apartment buildings, a lot of the same things that I've been talking about. Prices are down. It's a buyer's market. We have a huge affordability issue. More and more people are becoming renters, and so what I'm committed to do, Keith and I don't know if I shared with you my travel schedule, like when we met each other last month, but I'm on the road every single week going to another city, talking about where I see us right now in the market, and why people should be looking at deals and making offers right now. Because to me, you know, Warren Buffett said it best. He's like, you want to be fearful when everybody else is being greedy, and you want to be greedy when everybody's being fearful. And right now, people are on the sidelines. They're waiting for some green light, like for the Wall Street Journal to come out and say, Hey, now's a good time, you know? I mean, look, Trump, just the point of the new Fed chair, right? And so we know interest rates are going to go down like that's one of his goals, and the guy that he appointed is going to lower rates. So we're looking at a future, a very near future, where we have lower rates, and lower rates is going to create more demand, again, for people that want to buy. I invest in apartments now, look, if you wait another year, I still think it's going to be a good time, but I think we have a better time right now.   Keith Weinhold  30:10   I sold one apartment building in 2022 for about $1 million and I sold another one of my apartment buildings in 2023 for about $1 million I had bought those in 2013 with 10 year balloon loans, so I was enjoying that nice fixed rate as late and as long as I could, until 2022, nine years and 2023, 10 years before the rate went up on me. But of course, my new buyer had to pay that rate, so it limited the amount that they could offer for it. However, to your point about investing for a long time horizon, I still had profits on those nine and 10 year holds, but yeah, to your point, Brad about the looser lending, this is huge. I read a summary of the latest national Multifamily Housing Council meeting, and one of the biggest takeaways that came out of that meeting is that there is abundant debt available. It's in increasingly attractive terms. And a lot of people think about mortgages, and they just think about the rates, and you should that's certainly important, but they don't think as much about the propensity for others to lend. How loose, or how tight are those standards? They're loose, yeah.   Brad Sumrok  31:25   And, I mean, look, the first deal I did in 2002 the interest rate was 6.35% the rates right now are less than that, you know, as of the date of this recording. So, you know, I always talk about a base case of a $10 million deal. It may seem large to you or to people listening, but like in my world of syndication, where we're not just looking at the real estate piece, but learning how to raise money to buy real estate so we could have a bigger property that's professionally managed and become a true business owner like Robert Kiyosaki talks about, do you want to be self employed? I tell my students, buy a six Plex. Do you want to own an apartment business by 60 units and hire a management company? So when I'm talking about this $10 million deal, you know, you can get a $7 million loan right now for probably in the mid 5% and it would be non recourse, and you could probably get three years of interest only, meaning for the first three years, you're going to have a higher cash flow. So like, this is a really good loan compared to 2021 when we could get 3% debt. It's not but remember that 3% loan was a short term loan. You know, it wasn't a 10 year fixed rate loan, it was a short term loan, and we all saw what happened with that when they raised rates so many times in such a short period. So the fixed rate debt is very competitive based on, like, the long term, 20 year average, and it's lower than it was when I started.   Keith Weinhold  32:55   Well, we've been talking about elements of your apartment market forecast, and of course, that's going to inform your Buy Box. Brad, you mentor students constantly and oftentimes we think about a Buy Box. We think about then in terms of geographic market, but as we look for an opportunity, we also might think about some other things in your Buy Box, for example, new build versus vintage build. So with all of this traveling you do, and you're in the markets, and you're informing students, and you're looking at students prospective deals as well. But tell us more about what a good buy box is for the near term in apartment buildings.   Brad Sumrok  33:36   Yeah. So look like what is in the buy box, right? So one is going to be your location. And so, you know, how do I select a good location? Just some tips and strategies around that is, I look for landlord and business friendly environments. In other words, if the tenant doesn't pay, do they get to stay or not, you know, so I like to be in market so that they don't pay, that we could legally, you know, not have them consume our product for a long period of time. So I also look at things like job growth and population growth, affordability gap. New supply is a percentage of inventory, you know, the new supply coming online in a diversified economy. So, like, you want to get your geographies nailed down. Like, where you buy matters, like, there's no substitute to I would rather pay more for a property in a location that meets that criteria than less for a property that doesn't. Yeah. So geography is important. You want to pick your property size, like, how many units, or what's the price point. Okay? And this is huge, because if you're gonna buy your own deal with your own money, which is another reason I prefer syndication. Let's say you have pick a number, 100,000 to invest. Like you can only buy a $300,000 property, two units somewhere, three units somewhere, you know. Or zero units somewhere, right, right? So if you have expanded your you know, your mind and your skill set to do a syndication 100,000 doesn't limit you to your own money, you know. And then I would say, Well, what is a great size for a first time syndicator is I would target somewhere around 60 to 80 units, and at 100,000 a unit, which is a ballpark price for maybe a nice B class property or high C Class property, and a market that meets the criteria that I outlined earlier. You know, you're looking at, say, a six to $8 million property. And so what you could do from there, Keith is, you could say, Okay, well, you know, this is why, like in my educational course, I use a $10 million property, because the numbers are easy. But even just say, Well, I'm going to do an $8 million property, you'd say, Okay, I need two to 3 million down, depending on the debt, right? And then I'm going to get a the balance in a loan, you know, because you could get a 70 to 75% loan. So then you ask, Well, where am I going to get to 2 million, right? If I have 100 I need $1.9 million and so then you got to start thinking about like, do I have access to people or work or in the neighborhood or at the community or at the church, you know, or do I go to masterminds and conferences and meetup groups like, where I saw you Keith last month, like, there's a lot of investors there with a lot of money, right? And some of them are looking to be passive investors. And so, you know, there's a whole nother conversation around, you know, raising capital. And if you can't raise capital, then you may want to bring in some people on your GP team that could help you raise capital, as long as you're following, like the SEC compliance and again, that's another discussion. That's the importance of having the buy box so you have your geography, your property size, your property class. You know, again, if you just want the new construction stuff. There's some people out there, like big name, famous people, that are highlighting their 800 unit a class deals that they're buying. And of course, like you or I that are just getting started, can't go buy that deal. And so why? You know the institutions are going after the large A class properties in the best areas. And so where I've made my niche Keith, and what I would recommend most people start is start with the older vintage properties, start with the 1970s properties, and then maybe work your way up to the 1980s and 1990s properties. And why is this is because the institutions don't want those properties, and they're still able to be professionally managed. Like, if you go and buy 100 unit C Class property, as long as it's not in a bad neighborhood with, like, high crime or whatever like that. Like, these are very honest, hard working, working class people that need a clean, safe and functional place to live, and you'll be able to get better returns on a C or A B class, also known as like the cap rate. And again, that's another discussion, but you'll be able to get a better return on an older vintage property than you would on a vintage property. And you're not competing with the institutions, but you're also not competing with the mom and pops, because the mom and pops are going to take that 100,000 they have and go buy a duplex. You know, they're not going to want to syndicate a deal. They're not going to want to have partners. They're not going to want to deal with the so called complexities of buying a company. And that's what buying an apartment community is, Keith, it's buying a company. You're buying a business that has an income stream already being generated those customers, they're called residents. They're called tenants, you know, but if you just go upstream from buying real estate or buying an apartment building, we're buying a cash flow producing business that's existing, that's in place, and then our job is to figure out how to run it better and more efficiently. You the   Keith Weinhold  39:04   You the listener, you might have access to, say, 500k in equity that's sitting in your existing properties. And some of these numbers that Brad and I are throwing around are rather large, $10 billion but one of the biggest epiphanies that I think your students have is that doesn't need to be much of your own money. We're talking about what's called the capital stack to take down a $10 million apartment building. Maybe you borrow seven and a half million of that. Maybe you raise 2 million of that from your other investors in the syndication, and then you put your 500k into the deal, and there you have $10 million in order to make that purchase. But yes, that does involve a learning curve and the SEC rules and all that. But the big takeaway here is you don't need much of your own money. You can leverage other people's money, even for the down payment. And Brad, you're also an expert at showing people how to pay almost. Zero tax, which is another discussion unto itself, but some of your students start with zero experience, and within a few short years, I mean, you've had hundreds of people that have either retired early or increased their net worth by over a million dollars. A lot of success stories,   Brad Sumrok  40:17   yeah, look, I mean, I started with no previous real estate investing experience. My experience was going to college, studying hard, getting decent grades, becoming an engineer, you know, being fired once, being laid off once, and reading Robert Kiyosaki books that motivated me to to go out and seek specialized education. And I think it was Jim Rohn that said formal education, like degree could get you a job, and specialized education like you can get in a conference or a mastermind or a mentorship program. And that's also how I started. I went to a weekend workshop back in 2001 and I bought the mentorship program. And boy, I'm glad I did, because, you know, that's how I got into my first 62 units. So you don't need to have experience. What you need to have is a powerful reason, a powerful why? Why do I want to be financially free? Like apartments is just a vehicle. I didn't choose apartments because I love departments. I choose departments because they cash flow, they go up in value, and you have amazing depreciation benefits.   Keith Weinhold  41:23   Yeah, I'm the same. I don't love apartments in a way. I don't love real estate. I love what these things do for me    Brad Sumrok  41:30   exactly. Yeah? So, like, you don't have to have experience. In the other category, of people that have come into my community that don't have apartment experience, a lot of them have real estate experience, Keith, that are doing, like, single family homes, short term rentals, or maybe smaller, multi unit deals. And they listen to a show like this, and they're like, huh, I want to transition from doing these smaller types of assets with my own money and self managing to scaling into a syndication.   Keith Weinhold  42:03   Brad has taken countless people from get rich education to got rich education. His core values are faith, finance, fitness, family and fulfillment. He is committed to helping people experience not just financial success, but personal fulfillment, purpose, contribution, freedom and Brad and his investor community have contributed over $1 million to charity. Is really the person you want to learn from if you want to think about going bigger with multifamily apartment buildings. This has been great, Brad. Let our audience know how they can connect with you and learn more?   Brad Sumrok  42:42   Yeah, sure. So I would say this is where I should just be very clear here, okay, but I'm gonna give a couple options, because that's what I'm so of course, there's a website which is my first and last name.com, B, R, A, D, S, U, M, R, O, k, for those of you on social media, I respond to my own social so you'll find me again. B, R, A, D, S, U, M, R, O, K, on LinkedIn, Instagram and Facebook.   Keith Weinhold  43:13   Brad, it's been so valuable. It seems like American apartment buildings are in for redemption story here. It's been great having you back on the show.   Keith Weinhold  43:29   Brad and I both emphasize physical fitness, and we chatted about that a good bit when we were together last month. I think he looks better than me. To summarize, the reasons for this historic collapse in apartment building values. It was the combination of soaring interest rates, massive inflation, spiking insurance costs, construction soared, and it created an oversupply, and that oversupply still is not absorbed. In fact, according to the outlet apartment list, the National multifamily vacancy rate recently hit 7.2% that's the highest in the history of the index, which dates back to 2017 and that's chiefly due to apartment oversupply. Have apartments really hit the bottom? Brad just said, we're at or near the bottom, and it's a good time to be gearing up as far as what's coming. To give you an idea of new apartment supply, what takes about two years from construction start to completion. And now you can't just have all US apartment construction come to a complete stop. You have to keep people working. And there are almost 400 MSAs in the United States, so you couldn't coordinate a complete ceasing of construction across every area. So how about the level of new construction starts in apartment units today, and the way that HUD counts it is the number of units started in buildings of five plus units the recent peak. Was about 600,000 annually in 2023 and today it's closer to 400,000 there it is that slowing pace of new apartment construction. If you jump into multifam, be careful of properties with deferred maintenance, because understand that you have a lot of underfunded owners Now Brad can tell you specifically what to look out for his rat race to retirement event is March 28 and 29th in Dallas. It's a two day hands on workshop. You'll learn how to find apartment deals, how to underwrite deals, how to raise capital management and your exit. Discover how you can retire in five years or less by owning apartments again. His website is Brad sumrock.com    Keith Weinhold  45:49   coming up on future episodes here on the get rich education podcast. We're about to go on a run. The next stretch of GRE is loaded. We've got fresh topics with some game changing monolog content that I'm going to share with you new guests, distinguished experts, we're going to break down an innovative way to sell properties that could completely change how you think about your exit strategy of the 50 US states. I'm going to discuss some awful states to invest in, including ones with population loss. On another episode, a distinguished subject matter expert and I are going to dive deep on does America really have a housing shortage, not in apartments which are oversupplied, but is there a shortage in the one to four unit space? That's our topic, because you probably heard contradictory information in the media about whether there's a shortage or not, and then some outlets say there's a housing shortage of 2 million units. Others, 10 million. They're all over the place. We're going to sort it out on an upcoming episode. Does America really have a housing shortage? Then the youngest guest to ever appear on the show will be with us. He's a 19 year old college student that has a real estate investing related major, and since last year, he and I have befriended each other. He was born in about 2006 so it'll be interesting to see how he views the investing world and what they teach him about real estate investing in college today, he is probably the most impressive teenager that I've ever met in my life. Then six weeks from now, we will have an epic get rich education podcast episode 600 on a subject as paradoxical and complete with a GRE contrarianism That builds real wealth, debt is the American dream will be episode 600 if you're serious about building wealth, be sure to follow or subscribe to the show. We are going on a run. If you know someone in your life who needs to think differently. If you know one investor who's still waiting for perfect conditions. This will help them tap the Share button and tell them about the show until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your daydream.   Unknown Speaker  48:14   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  48:42   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com  

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Jen Saarbach and Kristen Kelly of The Wall Street Skinny to discuss two major developing market stories ahead of meeting in Miami for the iConnections Global Alts conference. The first topic is stress in private credit, centered on Blue Owl's retail-focused semi-liquid vehicle (Blue Owl Capital Corp II) facing heavy redemptions and gating, highlighting the liquidity mismatch between retail redemption needs and long-dated loan assets. They contrast the gated evergreen structure with Blue Owl's publicly traded BDC that was trading roughly 20% below NAV, discuss Blue Owl's reported loan sales near NAV, and explore why the issue is pressuring related stocks like Blue Owl and Blackstone despite an S&P 500 that appears indifferent. The group connects the private credit conversation to how AI/data center buildouts are financed, including references to Meta-related structures and concerns about CoreWeave's ability to raise capital for data center obligations, and notes that credit markets often reprice quickly only after complacency breaks. The second topic is prediction markets, focusing on Kalshi and its partnership with Tradeweb to publish analytics and potentially enable institutional trading of binary outcomes on events like Fed decisions and macro data, raising questions about democratized access, liquidity constraints, regulatory gaps, spoofing, and the role of insider information, along with implications for politics and whether more information is always better. Show Notes 1 big thing: Trump's huge tariff loss (Axios) Blue Owl permanently halts redemptions at private credit fund aimed at retail investors (FT) Wall Street Bond-Trading Hub Tradeweb Strikes Deal With Kalshi (Bloomberg) Exclusive: Supreme Court tariff ruling makes over $175 billion in US revenue subject to refunds, Penn-Wharton estimates (Reuters) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40qp47X Snowed in New York recording opens with a sharp selloff (Dow -822; S&P -1%+; Nasdaq -1.1%). Weakness tied more to AI valuation and pressure in tech and financials than tariffs. The 10-year yield fell to ~4.03%; defensives led. AI capex for 2026 is pegged at $650B across five firms. Nvidia's $30B OpenAI investment is expected to cycle back via chip orders. The Supreme Court ruled 6–3 that IEEPA cannot be used to impose tariffs; Congress retains tariff authority. Refund mechanics remain unclear. Possible alternatives include Section 122 (150-day limit) and the more complex 301 and 232 routes. Strategas estimates a net $70B tariff reduction even if some measures return. Refunds could total $120–130B, potentially stimulative, though implementation may be uneven. July's USMCA review approaches amid improving U.S.–Mexico ties and rising U.S.–Canada tensions. Q4 GDP was 1.4%; 2025 growth seen at 2.2% vs. 2.8% in 2024. Housing is softening, with markets pricing in 2–3 Fed cuts toward ~3%. 00:00 Snowed In Intro 01:15 Market Selloff Snapshot 03:24 AI Capex Reality Check 04:52 Supreme Court Tariff Ruling 06:33 Section 122 Workaround 08:06 Other Tariff Pathways 09:40 Economic Impact Estimates 10:44 Refunds and USMCA Fallout 12:56 GDP Housing and Fed Cuts 15:25 Geopolitics and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Subscribe to the new Macro Musings YouTube Channel! Raghuram Rajan is a finance professor at the University of Chicago and leads the Group of 30. Previously he was the chief economist at the IMF and the governor of the Reserve Bank of India. In Raghuram's first appearance on the show, he discusses his famous 2005 Jackson Hole speech, how he righted the ship on India's emerging economy, the consequences of zero-sum thinking, the differences between being a policymaker and an academic, the ratcheting effect of QE on the Fed's balance sheet, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 20th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:58 - Raghu's Career 00:22:20 - Policymaker Versus Academic 00:29:00 - Ratcheting Effect of Quantitative Easing 01:01:06 - Outro