Al Ahly Pharos

Strategy| DSCW stock showcases the strength of its embedded hedges in Black SundayGBCO management call| Adding the stock as the 11th opportunityABUK| Cheap on a status quo basis, but the "status quo" itself is being challengedHRHO| HRHO sheds more than just dividends: Accumulate below EGP25/share 

Market Overview prepared by: Mohamed Othman- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| If India-Pakistan 4-day war is any guide, the market sell-off should be short-livedCOMI| Post call with management, CIB is poised to rally once geopolitical risk subsidesEKHO, ABUK, MFPC| If sustained, crude oil surge could fuel a urea price rally, benefiting EKHO, ABUK, and MFPCCSAG| Suez Canal Recovery Derails Amid Escalating Tensions: keep cautious of CSAG HRHO| HRHO Goes Ex-Div — ValU Carve-Out Creates Potential Buy-the-Dip Opportunity 

- Market Overview - HRHO- GBCO- EMFD- EGAL- DSCW- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe 

Strategy| Trump says deal with China is "done" and we say EGAL journey to EGP200/share is just getting startedCSAG| CSAG crosses our FV target and time is ripe for a trimVALU| VALU's fair value based on fundamentals but don't mistake market momentum for moreEKHO| Offer for Delta Insurance at EGP 40/share acts as key catalyst for divestment thesisMTIE over BINV| Long what's ahead, hold what's priced in MCQE| Updated Fair Value Highlights Compelling Opportunity

- Market Overview - GBCO- EGAL- ORAS- ORWE- ORHD- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA. CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| CIB could be poised for a super rally if management signals a higher dividend payout ratioBTFH| ACTF acquisition of a 5% stake in BTFH lends solid support to our initial take on the name 

- Market Overview - ALCN- EMFD- MFPC- ISPH- ORWE- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| Loading up on DSCW as market intelligence confirms extraordinarily high demand for Egyptian ready made garmentsRising Thai poultry exports post-Brazil outbreak to pressure poultry prices, though temporary import ban could support POUL revenuesChemical & Fertilizer Sector| Gas price exemption may shield marginsEKHO| Alpha is contingent on value-accretive ex Egypt expansions and asset sale

- Market Overview - COMI- CCAP- GBCO- EFIH- ABUK- JUFOprepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's view:Strategy| Tailwind is building up for DSCWBINV| HOLD BINV as long-term high margin investments are overlooked; OW MTIE as a pair tradeETEL| Unlocking full value is contingent on an option that is unlikely to materialize over the short termSector Focus: Fertilizers and Petrochemicals| LNG allocation supportive but margin risk remains

- Market Overview - MPRC- ZMID- AFDI- JUFO- CIRA - prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views: Strategy| Market intelligence confirms Jirian contribution to PHDC value is minimalMacro| May 2025 inflation to hover around 15% on base effectCSAG vs ALCN| Post calling management of both firms, we continue to favor CSAG over ALCNRMDA| Strong FY25 ahead for RMDA, with growth momentum, molecule acquisition, and benefit from rate cutsTMGH conference call| Potential subsidiary listing on other markets could unlock valueEGAL| Dividend powerhouse with structural tailwinds – Maintain positive viewARCC and Egypt Cement| Neutral but opportunities exist in smaller peersECAP's 1Q25| Pressures mount as weak demand and cost concerns persist

- Market Overview - ADIB- EGAL- ETEL- ORAS- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe 

In today's Pre-Session Views: Strategy| Jirian impact on PHDC is contingent on deal metricsETEL| Vodafone Egypt - MNOs cashflows giant remains a key value driver for ETELCSAG management call| AD ports agreement and recovery in Suez Canal traffic shall pave the way for a better performanceWeekly Commodities Update |   | Last Price | WoW Change, % | Brent, USD/bbl | 63.9 | -1.4% | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 189.2 | -6.1% | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 401.0 | 0.0% | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 920.0 | 0.0% | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 965.0 | 0.0% | Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 115.4 | -0.6% | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 374.4 | -1.0% | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,438.3 | -0.8% | LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 9,548.1 | -1.0% | Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 3,784.0 | 1.1% | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 100.8 | 0.4% | SMP, USD/MT | 2,817.0 | 0.0%

- Market Overview - GBCO- TMGH- CCAP- CIEBprepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| Maintain UW commodity plays ex EGAL on gas shortage, gas price, OPEC and a strong EGPMTIE| How much is MTIE's Basata ePayments at 20% discount to FWRY?MCQE| Factors to consider ahead of 1Q25 resultsPOUL| Brazil's bird flu outbreak drives short term uncertainty in Egypt's poultry pricesCICH| Hidden value in CICH obscured by illiquidity drag

- Market Overview - COMI- CIEB- TMGH- EGAL- HRHO- HELI- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views: Strategy| HRHO at EGP31/share is closer to a SELLATLC| ATLC is a rare cash cow within the universe of bank and NBFIs but its valuation largely reflects its story. ISPH| Management call reinforces our positive view JUFO| Expanding concentrates capacity remains value accretive but materially lower juice prices makes us less excited on the stock at the current price level

- Market Overview - COMI- HRHO- ORHD- TMGH-.prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views: Strategy| Property stocks to outpace banks during 2H25HRHO| Key Takeaways from EFG Hermes Group Presentation on ValUETEL| Positioned to benefit from interest rate cuts ORAS| A solid start to the year, 1Q perfectly in line with estimates 

- Market Overview - COMI- TMGH- ORHD- ISPH- JUFO- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| PHDC ranked top pick as Abu Dhabi project is estimated to add around EGP15/share to FV estimateABUK, EKHO, MFPC, KIMA, LCSW, ECAP| Egypt's planned LNG imports signals higher gas prices and challenges industrial marginsHRHO| Should we purchase HRHO at EGP30 ahead of the ValU IPO?EFID| Steady but tepid start to a year lacking momentum

- Market Overview - HELI- PHDC- ZMID- IFAP- SUGR- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA. CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views: Strategy| Out of all commodity and F&B plays, EGAL and SUGR continue to stand outJUFO| potential non-core asset sale to support liquidity and profitabilityMBSC| Signals Commitment to Shareholders with Robust FY24 DividendEFIH| A direct beneficiary of Egypt's tourism boomRAYA| Keep an eye on EGX's diversified conglomerate – another beneficiary of interest rate cutsWeekly Commodities Update |   | Last Price | WoW Change, % | Brent, USD/bbl | 64.8 | -1.0% | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 201.5 | -3.4% | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 401.0 | 2.8% | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 920.0 | 0.0% | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 965.0 | 0.5% | Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 115.8 | -1.0% | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 378.9 | 0.0% | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,456.9 | -1.2% | LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 9,641.1 | 1.7% | Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 3,743.0 | 3.5% | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 100.4 | 1.4% | SMP, USD/MT | 2,817.0 | -0.4%

- Market Overview - EFIH- EMFD- PHDC- ORWE- preaching by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| Corridor at 20% by end 2025 favors the likes of ISPHMacro| CBE tone is categorically dovishISPH| 3.25% policy rate cut YTD boosts pre-tax income by EGP100 million during 2H25EFIH and FWRY| At circa 40% of net income, interest income under watch post CBE second policy rate cut

- Market Overview - HRHO- EFIH- ALCN- PHAR- HELIprepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views: Strategy| Flagging concerns over the outlook for ceramics and urea playersLCSW| Pharos Views on LCSW Post Management Call: Another 2 quarters of soft performance before a meaningful recovery builds momentum during 4Q25Heads up: Market intelligence suggests a natural gas price hike is imminent and urea players will not be able to fully offset margin impactMCQE| What does MCQE deal tell us? Buy MCQE on EV/ton arbitrage. POUL| The potential for a jumbo dividend yield offers a window for a 2H25 trade

- Market Overview - HRHO- BTFH- ALCN- EFIH- ADIB- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*Strategy| While eyes are dazzled by NBFI rally, build positions in EGALBINV| Cash + At the Money Call OptionsPOUL| Resilient amid high sector mortality ratesEKHO holds steady as gas disruption offset by strong earnings, dividend pledge

- Market Overview - BTFH- GBCO- ISPH- ETEL- MTIE- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| PHAR as an ideal EGP appreciation antidoteMacro| CBE expects the disinflationary path to continue in 2026Macro| MoF issued 5-year bonds after a 2-year haltBTFH shaping up to become a pan EM "Lendor"

- Market Overview - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe 

Strategy| HRHO rally opens gate for arbitrage opportunitiesMacro| Active interbank is a telltale of foreign inflows - Positive for USDMTIE 1Q25| On track to meet full-year estimates, exceeding estimates is contingent on Saudi and auto sales performanceTMGH| Another mispriced stock whose MCAP overlooks more than just land bankORWE| Revenues stall and margins tighten, signaling a tough FY25 performanceEKHO| 1Q earnings in line with guidance, cautious outlook for the year

- Market Overview - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

ORHD is a top exposure to an upswing in tourist arrivalsAmbitious government targets USD42 billion FDI in FY25/26 PHAR Management Call| Positive vibes for 2025 are confirmed, countdown begins for Eipico 3 

- Market Overview - EMFD- HRHO- ADIB- CIEB- FWRYPrepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*Strategy| Long EGAL on rebound in Aluminum pricesMacro| FY25/26 budget is out and it foresees a plunge in average treasury yields to 16% Macro| Maersk might transit the SC soon - Positive for USD.Macro |Global commodity prices imply more stability on the fuel front - Positive for inflation, interest rates.EFIH or FWRY? Long both - own the rails and the ridersGBCO| Soft start to the year with weak contribution from GB capitalATLC| At 2.5x book, recovery story has been largely priced inCOMI| Earnings call highlightsLCSW| Weak volumes during 1Q and no catalysts until end 2025

- Market Overview - COMI- EMFD- PHDC- RMDA- ISPH- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| Banks are relating on COE compression hopes - keep an eye on SUGRMacro| Tourism on fire in Q1 2025 - Positive for USDSUGR| SUGR is on track for a strong yearBTFH 1Q profit is 41% of 2024 record breaking results - A strong BUYORHD at EGP23.40/share? Is it still a BUY?

Market Overview Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*    Strategy| Macro noise is bullish EGP and step in CSAG + EGAL on Red Sea traffic recovery and aluminum price rally. Macro| Remittances go the extra mile in Feb- positive for USDCOMI 1Q25| on track to meet full year estimates, supported by controlled operating expenses and reduction in provisions. ETEL| starts 2025 robustly despite debt burden, price performance lacks catalyst despite upside potential of 45% from current levels.RMDA| A strong volume growth and portfolio repricing set RMDA on solid FY25 path CCAP| capital increase postponed till year end ECAP's 4Q| impacted by rising cost and competitionPOUL| Record revenues and strong margins on seasonal demand

- Market Overview - ABUK- EFIH- EGAL- FWRY - ALCN- prepared by; Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*    Strategy| FWRY and EGAL offer value post yesterday's sell-offMacro| Core Inflation up in April, no threat to expected easing pathMacro| Restoring normal traffic to the Suez canal might take monthsMacro| The Government will tap international financial markets before mid-2025JUFO| ST performance may remain under pressure on plunge in orange juice concentrates w/wARCC| Two-month quota suspension casts doubt on ARCC FY25 earningsMFPC| Stable Q for MFPC, maintain equalweightADIB| strong 1Q25; penalized by lack of cash dividends  Weekly Commodities Update 

Market Overview prepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

*Key fundamental views for today*STRATEGY| EGX30 should find support in potential US-China trade deal/India-Pakistan ceasefire/EG sovereign CDS compressionMACRO| There is room for 100-200 bps policy rate cut on 22 May post April inflation printMACRO| USD/EGP 2025 outlook remains stable at 51-53 amid strong signs of commitment to IMF programARCC| Coal and sales mix to drive GPM expansion in 2025SKPC| 1Q-25 results are almost flat y/y and 2Q results will likely remain so on flat HDPE. Time to accumulate as stock trades at low end of historic multiple

- Market Overview - BTFH- PRCL - OIH- CLHO- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated that the fifth review of the IMF loan program will start within few days, according to local press.              Egypt is committed to paying USD725 million to the IMF during the current month of May, and USD962 million in June, after paying USD1.56 billion during 4M2025.The Madbouly government expects to raise USD4-5 bn from selling stakes in 11 state-owned companies during the fiscal year 2025-2026, as a part of its privatization program.The government is putting together new incentive criteria and additional benefits for automakers participating in the Automotive Industry Development Program in a bid to boost local component rates to 65% from 45%. The revised incentive framework introduces a new methodology for calculating local component requirements and value-added metrics. The framework will be presented to Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly before being submitted to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi for final approval.The cabinet approved the official rollout of the Universal Health Ins. System in Aswan starting 1 July 2025. As part of the plan, non-emergency medical services will be suspended for uninsured individuals beginning 1 January 2026.Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that Egypt is negotiating with Saudi Arabia on joint projects with the Egyptian private sector across different sectors.Egypt and Greece signed a strategic partnership yesterday during President Abdel Fattah El Sisi's visit to the country, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The two sides also inked agreements to boost cooperation in a number of fields.The Madbouly government increased Exxon Mobil's production share from the Masry and Cairo offshore concessions to 40%, up from 15%. The government also extended the concessions' cost recovery period to seven years from five to encourage the company to increase its investments in Egypt's energy sector.Thirty Egyptian companies are considering establishing new factories in Morocco in the coming period, to boost joint investments between the two countries.The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen, further clouding the economic outlook as the U.S. central bank grapples with the impact of Trump administration tariff policies.TMGH achieved impressive YTD sales of over EGP160.0 billion, up 127.0% y/y, driven by the launch of the second phase of SouthMed which generated sales of EGP70.0 billion in one day.AMOC released 3Q24/25 unaudited financial indicators. Net profit surged to EGP463 million (+18% YoY, +158% QoQ) in 3Q24/25. Over 9M24/25, net profit inclined 5% YoY to EGP1.1 billion. AMOC is currently trading at a FY24/25e PE of 10.7x.EGBE released key financial indicators with 1Q25 standalone bottom line recorded EGP781 million (+26% q/q, +45% y/y, and +14% higher than Al Ahly Pharos Estimates of EGP686 million). EGBE is currently trading at P/E25 of 2.6x and P/B25 of 0.6x. AGM approved the distribution of cash dividends of 0.59/share, which implies a payout ratio of 12% and DY of 3.7%.

- Market Overview - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe