Al Ahly Pharos

Strategy| EFIH, FWRY, and GBCO violate the Law of One PriceELEC, GDWA| A holding discount opportunityECAP| At EGP37/share, is it too late to join ECAP rally? 

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| Banque Du Caire peer trade will likely trigger another 10-20% rally in COMI, CIEB and ADIB during 3Q25.ABUK undervalued despite sector headwinds; MFPC justifies premium

In today's viewsStrategy| KIMA outshines peers - ABUK may followCOMI| Riding YTD 11% growth ahead of 2Q25 results

Strategy| At an EV/sqm of EGP94k, BONY is valued at a discount to peersEFIH| Tourism momentum will flow through the numbers ABUK| Catalysts surface to potentially unlock Egypt's forgotten fertilizer beastATLC| Fair value anchored by solid capital base and expanding product mix 

Strategy| GBCO - Nostalgia and fundamentals rank the name as a SUPER STRONG BUYMacro| Dovish CBE language suggests that an August rate cut (up to -2%) is likelyCement Market| Short-term pain, long-term fix; Export quota now the most likely trigger for price declineDSCW| News Flow Reinforces Egypt's Rise as a Regional Hub for Ready-Made Garment Exports — DSCW Well-Positioned to CapitalizeSKPC | Weak polyethylene prices to weigh on 1H25 results and share price catalysts are limited

Strategy | Regardless of today's MPC outcome, odds are in favor of cumulative 4-5% rate cuts during 2H25BONY | A follow-up on BONY. What we like and do not likeQNBE | Took the deepest dive, down 12% YTD, despite solid results

Strategy| Market intelligence - Launch of Ras El Hekma should unlock IMF funding and inflate ORAS and ELEC valuationsRMDA| Acquisition of high-margin chronic disease molecule reinforces strategic outlook and FY25 targetsBONY| Discounted entry and an above average rent yield — but dividend void and cashflow thinness limit appealETEL| 12M rally = cost of equityGBCO| Another management call confirms our positive view on the stock; Margins hold firm amid regional challenges, GB Capital beats, incentives to boost 2H25 earningsEGAL| Hold EGAL to EGP200/share

Strategy| Placing KIMA under watchDSCW| Decline in Turkey's apparel exports highlights shift to Egypt, reinforcing our bullish outlook on DSCWDGTZ| A Nilex-born telecom contractor, riding on a concentrated c.EGP500 mn contractWeekly Commodities Update |   | Last Price | WoW Change, % | Brent, USD/bbl | 68.3 | 0.8% | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 336.6 | 34.3% | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 455.0 | 0.0% | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 930.0 | 1.1% | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 970.0 | 0.5% | Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 116.3 | 2.3% | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 360.5 | -2.0% | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,586.6 | -0.3% | LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 9,959.9 | -1.6% | Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 3,830.0 | -3.2% | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 110.0 | 3.2% | Orange Concentrates USD/Lbs | 2.1 | -5.9% | SMP, USD/MT | 2,718.0 | -2.1%

EGX30, EFIH, EGAL, FWRY, ISPH, AMIA, BINV, CICH, COSG

EGX30, MTIE.CA, CICH.CA

Strategy| AMIA/ATLC arbitrage under watchMacro/commodities| OPEC+ output hike + Trump bias to black energy is outright positive to Egypt macroFWRY| Ignore interest rate and keep an eye on electricity prices' impact on throughputCeramics| Without a take-private deal, ECAP looks fully valued; Prefer LCSWOLFI| OLFI confirms new price increase to support FY25 GPM targetABUK, EGCH, MFPC| Futures still on the rise yet correction imminent

Strategy| ELEC is well positioned to re-rate in 2026ORAS| ICC ruling on Sidra dispute significantly lower than expectedJUFO post management meeting| JUFO's growth strategy lies in concentrates capacity expansion, backward integration, and regional market entryISPH| ISPH to offload Al Haram lease, driving further deleveraging and earnings upsideCement Market | Government steps in; Reinforces our USD60/ton target. 

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| If you are after total returns of 30-40% over the coming 12 months, ORWE is unlikely to meet your objectiveMACRO| Yield compression on track but our bullish view on COMI remains intact DSCW| Settlement of delayed export rebates could offer timely boost to DSCW's bottom lineVALU| Neutral impact on VALU post-FRA adjustment as focus shifts from cash to credit financingCement Market | Bagged cement prices post first decline in 2025 amid normalization

- Market Overview- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| PHAR may be poised for a catch-up rallyPOUL| Poultry prices hit YTD low; market dynamics set to drive price recoveryWeekly Commodities Update |   | Last Price | WoW Change, % | Brent, USD/bbl | 67.8 | -12.0% | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 250.6 | -24.1% | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 401.0 | 0.0% | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 920.0 | 0.0% | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 965.0 | 0.5% | Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 111.4 | -1.1% | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 372.9 | 0.0% | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,595.2 | 1.3% | LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 10,118.7 | 2.1% | Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 3,958.0 | -0.2% | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 106.5 | -0.1% | Orange Concentrates USD/Lbs | 2.2 | -4.1% | SMP, USD/MT | 2,775.0 | 0.0%

- Market Overview - COMI- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Despite YTD rally, PHDC is still materially cheap. Copper/aluminum price ratio should provide solid support to EGAL.ORAS| Core business is trading for freeMCQE| Time to change our call from BUY to NEUTRALABUK,MFPC, EGCH| Urea prices surge on gas shortage, but regional ceasefire signals relief.MTIE| Bosch's factory inauguration reinforces appliances segment momentum. 

- Market Overview - COMI- ETEL- ADIB- EMFD- ISPH- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| POUL will likely find support in bottoming Brazilian chicken pricesDSCW Helwan facility visit| Expansion milestones validate robust growthRAYA| Ostool's exit could mark RAYA's strategic shift to core asset-light verticalsEGAL| Electricity price reduction reversal; Valuation remains intact JUFO| Merger accounting and concentrate prices weigh on margins

- Market Overview - JUFO- ORWE- TMGH- ORHD- ORAS-,Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| COMI can easily jump 5% just to recoup June-to-date losses and this could be the start of a 12M gain of 50%VALU| Investor-fueled rally may overrun fundamentalsATLC| Expanding opportunities in factoring and mortgage amidst leasing maturityOLFI| Management reaffirms growth plans and strong FY25 outlookORWE management call | Near-term headwinds temper outlook, strategic investments and US focus could unlock value 

- Market Overview - ORAS- ORWE- FWRY- PHDC- JUFO- Prepared by: Mayada Amin, CETA, CFTe

Strategy| CICH will likely be the next NBFI to re-rate in 2H25HRHO| Amazon's bet on VALU is a win for HRHO shareholdersBTFH| BTFH secured USD funding — Is a USD-based target acquisition in sight?MTIE management meeting takeaways| An exclusive distribution and local production plans signal growth accelerationAMOC, CCAP| Wider Diesel-HFO spread signals margin upside for AMOC and CCAP

- Market Overview - ADIB- BTFH - PHDC- TMGH- EFIH- Prepared by: Mayada Amin, CETA, CFTe

Strategy| Betting on listed crude oil-related stocks is betting against the supply response of OPEC+ and US shale producersDSCW| valuation updateORAS | Private sector entry to water projects a tailwind for local contractorsMTIE| Contribution to Basata Holding's capital increase underscores commitment to microfinance growth

- Market Overview - Prepared by: Mayada Amin, CFTE, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| COMI behavior during a sell-off suggests EGP80/share is a sold floorADIB| Growth-oriented with capital preservation in mind; Ready to mitigate rate pressuresHRHO| HRHO Dips Below EGP 25/Share—Time to load upJUFO| The margin tailwind fades as concentrates catalyst wears offISPH| Earnings and cosmeceuticals growth on track; potential deleveraging adds further upsideLCSW| Merger fuels efficiency; 2H25 rebound may support EGP600 million earnings guidance barring gas price shocksMCQE| YTD sales volumes reaffirm robust 2025 outlook

- Market Overview - ADIB- PHDC- TMGH- ORAS- FWRY - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| ISPH sell-off is categorically unjustifiedEGAL| We remain buyers of EGAL as aluminum prices hit a 3-month high

Market Overview prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe 

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| Gauges of macro risk are not raising red flags yetDSCW| What did Management tell us ? MCQE| valuation update

Market Overview Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe 

Strategy| DSCW stock showcases the strength of its embedded hedges in Black SundayGBCO management call| Adding the stock as the 11th opportunityABUK| Cheap on a status quo basis, but the "status quo" itself is being challengedHRHO| HRHO sheds more than just dividends: Accumulate below EGP25/share 

Market Overview prepared by: Mohamed Othman- CETA, CFTe

Strategy| If India-Pakistan 4-day war is any guide, the market sell-off should be short-livedCOMI| Post call with management, CIB is poised to rally once geopolitical risk subsidesEKHO, ABUK, MFPC| If sustained, crude oil surge could fuel a urea price rally, benefiting EKHO, ABUK, and MFPCCSAG| Suez Canal Recovery Derails Amid Escalating Tensions: keep cautious of CSAG HRHO| HRHO Goes Ex-Div — ValU Carve-Out Creates Potential Buy-the-Dip Opportunity 

- Market Overview - HRHO- GBCO- EMFD- EGAL- DSCW- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe 

Strategy| Trump says deal with China is "done" and we say EGAL journey to EGP200/share is just getting startedCSAG| CSAG crosses our FV target and time is ripe for a trimVALU| VALU's fair value based on fundamentals but don't mistake market momentum for moreEKHO| Offer for Delta Insurance at EGP 40/share acts as key catalyst for divestment thesisMTIE over BINV| Long what's ahead, hold what's priced in MCQE| Updated Fair Value Highlights Compelling Opportunity

- Market Overview - GBCO- EGAL- ORAS- ORWE- ORHD- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA. CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| CIB could be poised for a super rally if management signals a higher dividend payout ratioBTFH| ACTF acquisition of a 5% stake in BTFH lends solid support to our initial take on the name 

- Market Overview - ALCN- EMFD- MFPC- ISPH- ORWE- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| Loading up on DSCW as market intelligence confirms extraordinarily high demand for Egyptian ready made garmentsRising Thai poultry exports post-Brazil outbreak to pressure poultry prices, though temporary import ban could support POUL revenuesChemical & Fertilizer Sector| Gas price exemption may shield marginsEKHO| Alpha is contingent on value-accretive ex Egypt expansions and asset sale

- Market Overview - COMI- CCAP- GBCO- EFIH- ABUK- JUFOprepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe

In today's view:Strategy| Tailwind is building up for DSCWBINV| HOLD BINV as long-term high margin investments are overlooked; OW MTIE as a pair tradeETEL| Unlocking full value is contingent on an option that is unlikely to materialize over the short termSector Focus: Fertilizers and Petrochemicals| LNG allocation supportive but margin risk remains