Welcome to our daily podcast featuring the day's top news commentary and technical recommendations delivered to you before the opening bells of the Egyptian Stock Exchange (EGX).Alongside our morning podcasts, we will be publishing a collection of episodes presenting indepth analysis and insights on EGX's equities, all brought to you by Al Ahly Pharos.
Egypt
Strategy| Egypt is projected to host a record high number of tourists in 2025 and ORHD stands out as a compelling exppsure to this themeEFID| Valuation stretched after 40% rally, time to reduce exposureMBSC| Treasury share termination drives price, raises strategic questionsBTFH| A high-risk, high reward bet with regional expansion
Strategy | It may be ISPH month if the CBE slashes policy rates by 200 bpsFERC, IFAP, ICFC | Promising first half for the new entity despite margin headwindsJUFO | Equalweight short term, Overweight long term
Strategy | The ABCs of equity valuation suggest that OLFI offers an upside potential of around 30%. AMIA | Buy 68.4% of ATLC and literally get three 3 prime assets for free. PHDC | Follow the footsteps of PHDC chairman and BUY the stock on dipsJUFO | Trim JUFO to EW and add OLFIPOUL | Initiation of coverage ranks stock a BUY (FV: EGP25.8/share)ABUK | Gas cost pricing formula clarified, top pick status reaffirmed ATLC | We Initiate Coverage on ATLC with a STRONG BUY at FV of EGP5.5/share
Strategy | ACTF strategic partner is not BTFH but it is still a BUYMacro | US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment figures supports our bias towards a 2% August rate cutABUK, EGCH, MFPC, EKHO | Gas price floor hike a net positive, signals long-awaited reform; Strong urea tailwinds support earnings for our top pick ABUKLCSW | Natural gas price hike largely priced in, but downside risk remainsCement Market | BMIC counteroffer adds more fuel to M&A fire, recalibrating sector valuations
In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| Our analysis suggests that ACTF and BTFH may be forging an alliance to create a rival to Thndr. Growth option is not priced in ACTF market price. CIEB| Cautious growth strategy limits profits, but stock offers 17% dividend yieldRAYA| RACC MTO and Ostool divestment signal ongoing portfolio streamliningEKHO, SVCE| M&A momentum builds in Egypt's cement sector as ATI secures ECA approval for BMIC acquisitionSUGR| Strong 2Q25 results likely to push FY25 earnings above forecastsACTF| ST play on EGX recovery; LT alpha in mobile trading platform “Wilzy”MCQE| Re-rating progresses, 2Q25 pivotal, watch for regulatory pressure
In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| PHDC investors have already shaved off the fees imposed by NUCA from MCAP. Time to rebuild long positionsEFID| EFID exclusion from EGX30 supports short EFID callTMGH| SouthMed shouldn't be exposed to NUCA fee riskETEL| 2Q25 expectations – no surprisesDSCW| (BUY- FV: EGP5.5/share) 2Q25 recovery led by volumes; margins improve q/q but remain under pressure, foreign entrants viewed as strategic upsideMCQE| EGX30 inclusion adds fuel to fire as stock crawls towards our end 2025 FV of EGP67.7/share
Strategy| GBCO next leg up hinges on a single figure in 2Q25 results - "income from associates" and Tabby-related noise.ORAS| Eyes deeper market liquidity with ADX listing shift; Dividend yield confirms our EGP500/share valuation rangeCement| Syria's cement boom opens door to cross-border partnerships with Egyptian producersDSCW| Bonus share dividend approved; FV adjusted to EGP3.7/share
Strategy | COMI at EGP130 and EGX30 at 37,000 are around the cornerSUGR | Government intervention talks could ease inventory overhang, unlocking short term catalystSCEM | Market rejects VICAT's offer, signaling higher FV ahead
In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy | PHDC to cross EGP10/share in 2025 despite NUCA feeCOMI | Discussions on higher dividends now underway!ARCC | Share buyback is meant to alter the shareholders' structure rather than deliver a valuation statementTMGH| A follow up on TMG's value drivers - road to EGP65-70/share should be smooth
Strategy | ISPH recent rally could be the start of a next leg up if 2Q25 surprises to the upsideCOMI| Strong 2Q25 performance signals potential price re-ratingCICH| Buy one get one freeBONY| 1Q25 doesn't change our view: a justified discounted entry, cashflow remains under watchIFAP | Short IFAP, long EFIC on unjustified valuation gap
Strategy | EGAL on track to hit the EGP200/share mark post release of AGM minutes and surge in primary aluminum price.Libya reconstruction to unlock growth for Egyptian contractors and industrialsEFID | Signs of recovery gaining momentum; management confirms positive outlookORWE | Nothing material yet, but potential asset sale could support FY25 earningsEGCH, ABUK | Normalizing gas supply is key to unlocking value
Strategy| Excluding EFIC and ABUK, valuations of n and p-based exposures seem frothyTMGH| Understanding the business model - segmenting the storyECAP vs. LCSW| Another violation of the Law of One PriceJUFO| Price surge in orange concentrates fuels stock performance, yet impact on earnings may be delayedMCQE| MBSC's move signals strategic play, price upside expected
Strategy| EFIH, FWRY, and GBCO violate the Law of One PriceELEC, GDWA| A holding discount opportunityECAP| At EGP37/share, is it too late to join ECAP rally?
In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| Banque Du Caire peer trade will likely trigger another 10-20% rally in COMI, CIEB and ADIB during 3Q25.ABUK undervalued despite sector headwinds; MFPC justifies premium
In today's viewsStrategy| KIMA outshines peers - ABUK may followCOMI| Riding YTD 11% growth ahead of 2Q25 results
Strategy| At an EV/sqm of EGP94k, BONY is valued at a discount to peersEFIH| Tourism momentum will flow through the numbers ABUK| Catalysts surface to potentially unlock Egypt's forgotten fertilizer beastATLC| Fair value anchored by solid capital base and expanding product mix
Strategy| GBCO - Nostalgia and fundamentals rank the name as a SUPER STRONG BUYMacro| Dovish CBE language suggests that an August rate cut (up to -2%) is likelyCement Market| Short-term pain, long-term fix; Export quota now the most likely trigger for price declineDSCW| News Flow Reinforces Egypt's Rise as a Regional Hub for Ready-Made Garment Exports — DSCW Well-Positioned to CapitalizeSKPC | Weak polyethylene prices to weigh on 1H25 results and share price catalysts are limited
Strategy | Regardless of today's MPC outcome, odds are in favor of cumulative 4-5% rate cuts during 2H25BONY | A follow-up on BONY. What we like and do not likeQNBE | Took the deepest dive, down 12% YTD, despite solid results
Strategy| Market intelligence - Launch of Ras El Hekma should unlock IMF funding and inflate ORAS and ELEC valuationsRMDA| Acquisition of high-margin chronic disease molecule reinforces strategic outlook and FY25 targetsBONY| Discounted entry and an above average rent yield — but dividend void and cashflow thinness limit appealETEL| 12M rally = cost of equityGBCO| Another management call confirms our positive view on the stock; Margins hold firm amid regional challenges, GB Capital beats, incentives to boost 2H25 earningsEGAL| Hold EGAL to EGP200/share
Strategy| Placing KIMA under watchDSCW| Decline in Turkey's apparel exports highlights shift to Egypt, reinforcing our bullish outlook on DSCWDGTZ| A Nilex-born telecom contractor, riding on a concentrated c.EGP500 mn contractWeekly Commodities Update | | Last Price | WoW Change, % | Brent, USD/bbl | 68.3 | 0.8% | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 336.6 | 34.3% | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 455.0 | 0.0% | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 930.0 | 1.1% | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 970.0 | 0.5% | Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 116.3 | 2.3% | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 360.5 | -2.0% | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,586.6 | -0.3% | LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 9,959.9 | -1.6% | Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 3,830.0 | -3.2% | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 110.0 | 3.2% | Orange Concentrates USD/Lbs | 2.1 | -5.9% | SMP, USD/MT | 2,718.0 | -2.1%
EGX30, EFIH, EGAL, FWRY, ISPH, AMIA, BINV, CICH, COSG
Strategy| AMIA/ATLC arbitrage under watchMacro/commodities| OPEC+ output hike + Trump bias to black energy is outright positive to Egypt macroFWRY| Ignore interest rate and keep an eye on electricity prices' impact on throughputCeramics| Without a take-private deal, ECAP looks fully valued; Prefer LCSWOLFI| OLFI confirms new price increase to support FY25 GPM targetABUK, EGCH, MFPC| Futures still on the rise yet correction imminent
Strategy| ELEC is well positioned to re-rate in 2026ORAS| ICC ruling on Sidra dispute significantly lower than expectedJUFO post management meeting| JUFO's growth strategy lies in concentrates capacity expansion, backward integration, and regional market entryISPH| ISPH to offload Al Haram lease, driving further deleveraging and earnings upsideCement Market | Government steps in; Reinforces our USD60/ton target.
In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| If you are after total returns of 30-40% over the coming 12 months, ORWE is unlikely to meet your objectiveMACRO| Yield compression on track but our bullish view on COMI remains intact DSCW| Settlement of delayed export rebates could offer timely boost to DSCW's bottom lineVALU| Neutral impact on VALU post-FRA adjustment as focus shifts from cash to credit financingCement Market | Bagged cement prices post first decline in 2025 amid normalization
- Market Overview- Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
Strategy| PHAR may be poised for a catch-up rallyPOUL| Poultry prices hit YTD low; market dynamics set to drive price recoveryWeekly Commodities Update | | Last Price | WoW Change, % | Brent, USD/bbl | 67.8 | -12.0% | Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 250.6 | -24.1% | Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 401.0 | 0.0% | Polyethylene, USD/ton | 920.0 | 0.0% | Polypropylene, USD/ton | 965.0 | 0.5% | Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 111.4 | -1.1% | Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 372.9 | 0.0% | LME Aluminum Cash Price, USD/ton | 2,595.2 | 1.3% | LME Copper Cash Price, USD/ton | 10,118.7 | 2.1% | Egyptian Retail Cement, EGP/ton | 3,958.0 | -0.2% | Steam Coal FOB Newcastle Australia, USD/ton | 106.5 | -0.1% | Orange Concentrates USD/Lbs | 2.2 | -4.1% | SMP, USD/MT | 2,775.0 | 0.0%
- Market Overview - COMI- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
Despite YTD rally, PHDC is still materially cheap. Copper/aluminum price ratio should provide solid support to EGAL.ORAS| Core business is trading for freeMCQE| Time to change our call from BUY to NEUTRALABUK,MFPC, EGCH| Urea prices surge on gas shortage, but regional ceasefire signals relief.MTIE| Bosch's factory inauguration reinforces appliances segment momentum.
- Market Overview - COMI- ETEL- ADIB- EMFD- ISPH- prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
In today's Pre-Session Views:Strategy| POUL will likely find support in bottoming Brazilian chicken pricesDSCW Helwan facility visit| Expansion milestones validate robust growthRAYA| Ostool's exit could mark RAYA's strategic shift to core asset-light verticalsEGAL| Electricity price reduction reversal; Valuation remains intact JUFO| Merger accounting and concentrate prices weigh on margins