Podcasts about Export

Setting up an IC-DISC the right way can mean the difference between maximizing tax savings and having issues down the road. In this episode of The IC-DISC Show, I sit down with Brian Schwam, IC-DISC specialist and tax attorney, to walk through the complete IC-DISC setup and compliance process from start to finish. This conversation was inspired by a CPA request for a comprehensive guide covering every step of the IC-DISC journey. Brian breaks down the entire process chronologically, from the initial consultation to determine if a business qualifies, through the critical formation steps that can make or break your IC-DISC. We cover proper capitalization requirements, the infamous 90-day election window, why non-interest bearing bank accounts matter, and the draconian 60-day payment rule that catches many businesses off guard. He explains the difference between simple and transaction-by-transaction calculations, sharing an example where detailed analysis increased a client's commission from $4 million to $17 million on $100 million in export sales. Whether you're a CPA learning about IC-DISC for the first time or a business owner considering this strategy, Brian's systematic approach demonstrates why working with a true specialist matters when navigating these complex regulations.     SHOW HIGHLIGHTS A detailed transaction-by-transaction calculation increased one client's IC-DISC commission from $4 million to $17 million on the same $100 million in export sales. Missing the 90-day election filing window requires a private letter ruling costing $35,000-$40,000 to fix, making it cheaper to just set up a new IC-DISC. The 60-day payment rule requires paying at least 50% of your estimated commission in cash or promissory note within 60 days of year-end to avoid disqualification. Setting up an IC-DISC with no par value stock is a fatal error that will cause the IRS to reject your election, regardless of everything else done correctly. A non-interest bearing bank account is essential because even $1.50 of interest income can disqualify your IC-DISC if no commission is paid that year. Export sales typically need to reach $3-5 million before an IC-DISC makes economic sense, though exceptions exist for businesses with exceptionally high profit margins.   Contact Details LinkedIn - Brian Schwam LINKSShow Notes Be a Guest About IC-DISC Alliance Brian SchwamAbout Brian TRANSCRIPT (AI transcript provided as supporting material and may contain errors) Dave: Good morning, Brian. Welcome to the podcast. Brian Hey, good morning David. Good to be here. Dave: So I, I now refer to you as the Bob Hope of the podcast because I believe that Bob Hope holds the record for the most appearances on the Johnny Carson Show. So that's why you're like the Bob Hope of the podcast. You have more appearances than anyone else with today's appearance. Brian That's good company to be in if you're of a certain, if you're of a certain age. Dave: Yeah. And I'm not even sure you and I are quite old enough to even be of that certain age. Brian I probably never saw him on Johnny Carson. Dave: Yeah, me too. So this is an episode that was requested by a CPA of one of our clients who was retiring and he had a new. Partner taken over and he said, Hey Dave, can you send over a link to the episode that just goes through all the details of the IC disc from start to finish? And I'm like, well, we don't have that episode, but it's a great idea. So that's what's behind this. So let's start at the very beginning. Somebody calls you up and says, Hey Brian, I need an IC disc, or I want an IC disc. What's the very first step? Brian Very first step for me is to say why. Dave: Okay, Brian tell me about your business. Dave: Okay. Brian You know, do you have qualified export receipts? Do you have qualified export property? That those are very complex areas. And some people might think they do when they don't, and others might think they don't when they do. Dave: Okay. Brian And more likely than not, they heard about IC disc from. Somebody they met at a, you know, business leader meeting or something and somebody said, oh, hey, I have an IC disc. You should have one. Dave: Okay. Brian And not everybody can utilize one, but there's many out there that can utilize 'em that do not. Dave: Okay. And do you charge anything for that consultation? Brian No, because to me it's just a fact finding. Dave: Okay. So step one, figure out if their fact pattern warrants having an IC disc. Brian Right? Right. Well, it's, it's actually, that's one step. If you deter, if we determine that yes, an IC disc makes sense because they do have qualified export property, they do have qualified export receipts, then we have to talk about volumes. Because, you know, if you have 500,000 of export sales, most like more likely than not. Disc isn't gonna make sense. Dave: Economic sense when Brian you factor Right. Economic, the Dave: costs Brian not right. There's not enough benefit to offset the cost at that, at that level, most likely. Of course. It [depends on what, what it is they're selling. Dave: Sure. Do you have a rule of thumb you typically use? Is it like three or 5 million where it typically makes sense or every case Brian For most, for most businesses, that's sort of the range that where it starts to make sense, but there are always exceptions to that. Dave: Sure. Brian So like I had a client that had, you know, 600,000 of export sales, but their bottom line profit was 80%. Dave: Okay. Brian So in that instance, hey, it made sense, but for most companies that have 600,000 of export sales, it, it probably doesn't make sense. Dave: Okay. So let's say they have 5 million of exports, good margins, looks like it makes economic sense. What's the next step then? Brian Well then we talk about what is the tax structure of that exporting company? Is it a flow through entity? Is it a C Corp? And how is it owned? Sometimes [00:04:00] it's owned by a foreign company that makes things way more complicated. Okay. It's owned by a combination of different shareholders, some of which are individuals, some of which are corporations. So that can be complicated. And sometimes it's just a, it's just a pass through entity that's owned by, you know, let's say it's an S corporation that's owned by a family owned. Dave: Sure. Brian You know, so you, you can have a lot of different fact patterns and that will dictate a lot of things with, with respect. Dave: Okay. Brian To how the disc is organized. Dave: Might that also be the time? You inquire as to whether multiple discs might make sense for their structure, or do you typically just focus on kind of getting the initial disc in place and then exploring that over time? Brian Probably the latter. Dave: Yeah. Brian Initially I, you know, the goal is, you know, do you have enough activity? Do you have the right kind of activity? What kind of benefit is it that you think you can, we can get for you? And then, okay, if the answer to all those are in the positive, then it's like, okay, how should this disc be owned based on what we're trying to achieve and where should it be set up? Because that also can have a lot of negative surprises if you set it up in the wrong place. Dave: Yeah. So let's say and I think there's some rules of thumb like if if the. Exporting company is a C corp, you typically don't want the C Corp to own the disc, is that correct? Brian That is, that is correct. And that's because a C corporation pays tax on a dividend. It receives from the IC dis, so effectively there's no benefit. Dave: Okay. So with a C corp, typically it would be the individuals, individual or [individuals that Brian are Oh, the, the shareholders typically, Dave: yeah. Brian You know, possibly a management group could be involved as well, but typically we're talking about the shareholders of the C corporation. Dave: Yeah. And the shareholders of the disc do not necessarily have to mirror the shareholders of the C corp. Right. Brian That is sort of up in the air. I, I prefer that to be the case, but it doesn't have to be the case. Dave: Yeah, like in a simple example, census C Corp owned by one person and when they set it up, they wanna add a couple key employees to it. Brian Yeah. That, that, that's probably fine. You know, there's some old revenue rulings out there from the early 1980s that have a bad fact pattern, which the IRS held that the structure created gift tax issues, but that was like a mom and a dad and a son and a daughter, and mom and dad set up a disc and then gave the stock to the son and the daughter. And, and so that, that's, I see that's a bad fact pattern. What you described is a completely different fact pattern. There's no donative intent in that fact Dave: pattern. Yeah. Okay. In Brian fact, that I have a client that started out where the disc and the C Corp was. It did have mirror ownership, but over time, that has changed dramatically. But still, there's no donor of intent because we have all these unrelated families that own shares in the company in this quote company. And when there have been redemption opportunities over the years, they have the choice redeemed, the disc shares redeemed. The, the C corp shares redeemed them both. So some of like kept their dis shares, but gotten rid of the C Corp shares and vice versa. But really without the donative intent, plus some court case you know, precedent, I, I'm not [00:08:00] so concerned about that issue. Dave: Okay. Now let's switch gears and let's say it's a flow through an S-Corp partnership et cetera. Do you typically want the individuals to own it in that situation? Say that the company has three shareholders, would you just make them the three owners of the disc? More often than not, no. Okay. And why is that? Brian Because it, you get the same benefit by making the disc a subsidiary of the S corporation without some of the extra complexity associated with having the disc be owned by the shareholders. Now that, that's, that's preferred, but there are also situations where that doesn't make sense. Dave: Okay. Brian So let's say the, the S corporation is in California and the shareholder lives in Texas, or Florida. Or Nevada. Dave: Okay. Brian So they might want that dividend income flowing directly to them so that there's [00:09:00] no state Oh. So that there's no state income tax on the dividend. Dave: Sure, sure. Brian Okay. Okay. Yeah. So again, it's just another fact you need to uncover in the process of trying to figure all this out. Dave: Okay, so you've met with the client, you've figured out a disc makes sense, you've dug further you figured out the ownership structure of the disc. That makes sense. So then I guess you have to figure out where to incorporate, huh? Brian Yeah. And that again, there are good states and bad states. Dave: Okay. Brian Some states will tax an IC dis as a regular C corporation, you wanna avoid those states. Some states don't have an income tax at all, and those are good states to deal with. Dave: Okay. Brian And the three, you know, I'd say there's three states that are predominantly viewed as positive, and that would be Delaware, Texas, and Nevada. Okay. They're all fairly similar. For filing. And, and none of them have a corporate income tax on the dis so that's, that's all good in terms of not adding additional costs to the, the structure. Dave: Okay. So I'm in Texas and thus you, it seems like most of my clients end up incorporating in Texas. Do you just so here we are January 8th. We're recording this of 2026. So do you just do you just get around to doing it anytime before the end of the year and then you could use the disc the whole year? Is that how it works? Brian It's not how it works. It's generally a prospective opportunity. So you wanna get that entity formed as quickly as possible. Dave: Okay. Yeah. I've had people, I've heard [00:11:00] people say that if you don't do it on January 1st, you just have to wait till the next year. Brian No. That, well, that's certainly not true. And from any date forward that you set it up, you can certainly get benefits or shipments. Okay. That they, but one other item that I forgot to mention earlier, they also like to ask if the, if the related supplier entity, which is the exporter, if they're an accrual based company or a cash basis, Dave: ah, Brian that's an, that's an incredibly important issue Dave: Sure. Brian Dealt with. That's why. Dave: Okay. Brian Because the disc is an accrual base taxpayer by default. Dave: Yeah. Okay, we'll get into that when we get further around the, Brian okay. Dave: I think about when I was a kid, there was a, there was a Saturday morning TV series I think called schoolhouse Rock. And one of the episodes was how, how a bill becomes a Law [00:12:00] And there's the whole steps, the Brian episode, everybody remembers. Dave: Yep. Yep. So everybody our age at least. Okay, so you've got the disc set up and say you do it in Texas and let's say they make the decision January 8th, takes a few days to, you know, just kind of get stuff, you know, information from the client set up. And let's say you get it set up January 15th, so then they're good to go, huh? They can just start using that disc and away we go. Anything else? Ha. That has to be done Or is it, is it that some Brian on the, on the surface, yes, that's true. Dave: Okay. Brian But beneath the surface, there's other things that have to take place. Dave: Okay. What's the next thing that has to happen after you've formed the disc? Brian Well, you have a, there's a 90 day window to file a disc collection with the IRS. That's probably the most critical thing that has to happen. You have to file an actual paper form with the IRS to elect disc status for the company, because the company, when you set it up, it's just a corporation. Without that election, it's not a disc. Dave: And that election, is this the famous form 48, 76 dash a, is that said election, Brian famous or infamous in some cases, Dave: yes. Yeah. Okay. So you have to, so you just well, you just go to the IRS website. Download the form, send it in, bing, bam. Boom. You're done. You're good to go. Brian Not exactly. Dave: Okay. That's the Brian first Dave: step. Brian Skip. That's the first step. But the I mean, first of all, when you're setting up the disc, you have to make sure you incorporate it properly. Dave: Okay. Brian I kind of glossed over that. Dave: And what are some of the elements of proper incorporation? Brian Well, for example, when you go to a, the Texas website or any other secretary of State website to organize the company, because it can be done all online, [00:14:00] like the default is always, you know, no par value stock, right. Brian If you just select the default, you are going to have a problem because Okay. Dis rules require, you know, par or stated value of $2,500 on the, issued an issued an outstanding stock of, of the disk. So I had a client that came to me years ago. They had set up a company in, well, they used Wyoming, which is also possible to use, and it's not a bad jurisdiction. And they had, he had his quote unquote friend that who was an attorney, set it up for him. And there were some issues with the DISC collection and it went back and forth and then ultimately took a look at the articles of incorporation and it had, you know, $1 power stock, 1000 shares. Dave: Ah, that's a problem. Brian That's, [00:15:00] yeah. So no matter what happened with the disc election and the back and forth with the IRS, the disc election was ultimately never approved because the entity didn't meet the requirement. Having enough outstanding capital stock. So you have to have one and it can only have one class of shares. So there are, you know, there are some hoops you have to jump through in terms of not doing things incorrectly or doing things correctly. So you have to make sure there's one class of stock, $2,500 par value. There can't be foreign sales corporation in the same patrol group, which years ago was a big deal, but now it's not really a big deal because those have been gone for many years and almost nobody has one left. Not, not really an issue there. And what, you know, those are the formation matters that, that mattered, that are important to make sure you, you meet when you form the entity. Okay? If it's formed wrong, right from the get go, you have a problem. If [00:16:00] it's formed correctly, then the next step is yes, file a disc election. Dave: And, but before you file the disc election, there's a step we're missing, right? Doesn't the DISC election require. To put the corresponding EIN for the distance. Oh yes. I mean, I just assumed we, yeah, you obviously you have to apply for an ID number for the new entity that does not come automatically with the incorporation. Brian 'cause that's done with the state as opposed with the IRS yes. Dave: Yeah. And that's become more challenging. It used to be pretty easy to get an EIN you could apply under a corporate name or Brian yeah. But there, there's a, you know, there is an online portal with the IRS to get an EIN for a domestic company. So it's not, it's not Dave: terrible. Yeah. Brian It's not terrible. Dave: Yeah. So you have the EIN that you need for the 48 76 ae. Brian Right. Dave: You have you have 90 days, Brian you have the proper capitalization. Dave: Yeah. Brian You figured out who's gonna own the disc because the, the disc collection is. Signed, you know, it's not just made by the disc entity. It's made by the disc entity, then consented to by the shareholder. So you have to make sure that all that takes place. I can't tell you the number of times where somebody filled out part one, the disc signed it, and then the shareholder forgot the consent to it. And if you don't do the 48 76 dash eight correctly, you get it filed timely. It's an extremely expensive fix to try and get that Dave: rectified. Brian Generally, you have to try to get a private letter ruling, which will grant an extension of time to file the late disc collection. Dave: Okay. Brian And that's that's an expensive process. It's a 25 to $30,000 exercise to [00:18:00] file the private letter, really. Plus you have to pay a user fee to the IRS of 10,000, 11,000. Dave: Wow. Yeah. It seems that seems inconvenient at, at best. Brian And for most companies, they're better off just setting up a second dose Dave: Sure. Brian As opposed Dave: to process, Brian because how much volume there is. Dave: Yeah. Yeah. And I understand the IRS itself refers to these as a, a paper entity. So I guess since it's a paper entity, that's it. No need to fuss around with a bank account or actually have to capitalize it with actual money is there. Brian It's, it's recommended, but you're right, it's not required. There's no requirement in the disk rules to set up a bank account. Dave: Okay. Brian So there it could simply have. A receivable receiv for the capital stock. And that can be, its working capital doesn't have to have a bank account, but that's sort of a misnomer that people think it must have a bank account. Okay. In the original regulations, that was a requirement, but when the regulations are finalized, the requirement was removed. Dave: Okay. But practically speaking, it you probably wanna have a bank account. Brian Yes. Practically speaking, it makes all the sense in the world to have a bank account, a non-interest bearing bank account. Dave: And why is the non-interest bearing important? Brian Well, it, it has to do with one of the annual requirements of a disc. That 95% of its receipts have to be qualified export assets. I'm sorry, receipts. And so let's say in a year the company decides. You can't always decide not to use the DIS even though you've got it in place. So let's say the company says, well we're not gonna use the, this year we had a loss. In our business there's no using. Dave: Okay. Brian We say, okay, and then the DIS bank account earned a dollar 50 of interest income. Dave: Okay, Brian well 100% of the receipts are now not qualified receipts. Okay. Income and no other revenue. If there was a non-interest bearing bank account, it would just have no receipts and then it would be fine. But the earning, the dollar 50 of interest would disqualify that. Dave: Okay. So non-interest bearing account and then I guess the dollar amount in the bank account, what you start with, $2,500 initially. Brian Yeah, pretty much keep it there forever. Dave: But, but it doesn't matter if you end up, oh, if you're a little lazy and you forget to distribute all the money and you end up with 50 grand at the end of the year, that, that's not a problem, is it? Brian It is. Dave: It is. Everything's a problem Brian with you, Brian, because everything, 'cause the, these rules are draconian and everything can become a problem. So a commission dis anyway, a comm, [00:21:00] you know, a paper entity commission dis doesn't need $50,000 of working capital. And the IRS would hold that, that that's not a qualified export out. Like having too much working capital in DIS will cause it to fail. The other test, which is the 95 qualified export asset test 2,500, you know, an amount of cash equal to the capital stock is fine. Dave: Sure. Brian Amounts above that start to, you know, raise questions as to whether. That's reasonable working capital or not? Given that the entity's a paper entity, it doesn't really have any expenses. Maybe some bank fees. That would be about it. In most cases, it really doesn't need cash sitting. Dave: Yeah. Yeah. So maybe 3000, 3,500 to account for some bank fees or, Brian yeah, at most, yeah, we start getting about 5,000. It really starts to [00:22:00] look questionable. Dave: Okay. Oh, I just realized, I think in the initial assessment there was a step we forgot and that's, do they want to make it a buy sell disc or a commission disc? What percentage of your clients are commission discs? Mine a hundred percent. That's Brian 99%. Dave: Yeah. So we're just stepping ahead assuming that it would be a commission disc, Brian right. I mean, the only time you would really have a buy sell disc. 'cause if you have a business where. They're buying inventory from unrelated parties. And all the inventory is manufactured in the US and all of it is export. Dave: Yeah. Brian Okay. That, that, that I do have, like I said, two clients that have adopted that structure. One was commissioned disc with an S-corp and they converted, they merged the S-corp into the disc and just became an operating disc. You know, and that's a little different than a buy sell disc. I mean, an operating disc. People think of buy, sell dis an operating disc for the same thing. They're really not. I mean, 'cause you could have a, the equivalent of a commission disc, but have it be by sell where it could buy product from its related exporter and then export it. Dave: Okay. Brian It's possible that, that, that tho that fact pattern, I don't have any clients in. Dave: Okay. Brian It's possible. Dave: Okay. So we've got the election filed and then at some point the IRS will send the taxpayer letter approving the election, right? Brian Correct. That is, that was true. Dave: And then so we've got the, the B and usually it makes more sense to have the disc bank account at the same bank as the operating company, right? Brian It typically does, Dave: yes. Yeah. And we'll get into that when we get further into the operation of the disc. Okay. So it's all set up. And elections filed, election approved. So now certainly we're done with incorporation and government governance matters, right? Brian No. No, Dave: not yet. Brian Not yet. Not yet. Okay. We still have to make sure there's a a call, a related supplier agreement or disc commission supplier agreement in place between the, the exporting entity or entities and the disc itself. This document is, it's not, again, it's not required in the regulations, but it is recommended. It gives the related supplier a lot of flexibility in how it uses the disc and if it uses the disc and it gives it unilateral powers to decide not to use the disc. It also lays out the, you know, sort of boil legal boilerplate language about an inter intercompany agreement between the two business. Dave: So you could just go to chat GPT and have them spool up a one page sales agent agreement. Is that right? Brian Maybe. I don't know. I haven't tried that 'cause I don't wanna teach chat GPT how to, how to do that, but because every time you ask it a question, you teach it, right? Dave: Sure. Brian General, no, it's a pretty specific agreement and it has very specific provisions in it. Provisions and so somebody that knows what they're doing really needs to draft them. Dave: Okay. Okay. So this is kind of pointing away from just having your general corporate attorney who's never heard of a disc, do all that quote paperwork. Brian Yeah. I never recommend. I always recommend that a specialist do it, namely myself take care of it. Dave: Okay. Yeah. 'cause you are, in addition to having an accounting background, you're also a tax attorney, correct? Brian Correct. Dave: Correct. Okay. Brian Yeah. And you know, some of the documents that need to be created, yeah. That can be done by a general corporate attorney like bylaws and those as well and or other organizational documents that aren't disc specific can only be done by any attorney. But but if, but really it doesn't make sense to split that work up amongst different attorneys. Dave: Okay. Sure. Brian It all sort of be done by the same party to make sure that it's, that everything gets taken here. Dave: Okay. Brian And timely because there's a 90 day window to get this, in my opinion, to get this all done. Dave: Yeah, to co to coincide with the election filing. Brian Right. Because typically I don't provide any of the documents, including the election, to the, to the client until all these things are done. Dave: Yeah. Oh, I see. Sure, sure. Because then there's, Brian you know, they have to sign the disc election and there's all these other documents they need to sign and put in a minute book. And so rather than piecemeal it, we just give it to them all at once. Dave: Okay. So they've got their binder with all their signed documents or a signed copy of the 48 76 A that was filed a copy of the approval from the IRS. So now finally, are we ready to get started using our disc? Is there. Brian Collection the I. Yeah. As you've probably seen in the news, things are changing at the postal service as far as postmarks and what they can be relied on as when something was considered filed. So they're not promising the postmark things that they, you drop them in the mail anymore. Dave: Oh, really? Okay. I hadn't heard that. Brian Yeah. So it's recommended to go, like, walk it to a counter and have it hands stamped with [00:28:00] a postmark. Yeah. But more importantly, and unfortunately not everybody listens to this, send the form certified mail return receipt requested. 'cause many times document is sent to Kansas City and they lose track. Oh, we never got your dis election. We can't process your dis return, whatever. And then there's proof that it was sent and then they have to, you know, find it basically. Dave: Okay. Or Brian at least accept it, maybe even if they never find. Dave: Yeah. Brian But there's one other thing about the disc and that we didn't talk about and, and I'm reminded of it because something you asked me in passing last week, which is something about the year end of the disc, the year end of the disc must coincide with its principal shareholder. So if I have a C corp that's a fiscal year, but the owners of the disc aren't gonna be [00:29:00] individuals, that disc will be a calendar year disc. Dave: Sure. Brian Not be a fiscal year company. And you know, if. It's owned by, let's say an S corp that has a fiscal year, then the disc will have a fiscal year. It, it must have the same year as its principalship. Dave: Okay. Yeah. Good. Thanks for the reminder of that. Brian And sometimes the disc collection gets filled out incorrectly. Somebody assumes one thing and, and then when a return is filed, the IRS, they're like, they, they dunno what to do. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Alright. Now finally, do we have a little bouncing baby disc to be delivered to its proud parents? I think so. Dave: Okay. Okay. Okay. Brian And that's usually, it's usually about three to five months after it was formed. Dave: Okay. Brian Is when it started eating solids. Dave: Okay. Alright, so now we've got the disc set up and 9:45 AM I'm, I'm sorry, I keep touching my watch and it says the time, apparently it's time to just take off my watch. Okay. So now, so let's just say that they have not yet set up the bank account. They've done everything else, and now it's time to set up the bank account so they, you know, call their local banker. They get it set up at the same bank, so it can be on the same online banking platform. And then they fund it. And does it matter where the funding comes, comes from for that bank account? Can they just like say the company. I mean, can just anybody fund it? Say there's three shareholders, can just one shareholder write a check for $2,500 to fund it? Or how does that all look? Brian Well, I mean, there, there will be a subscription agreement that shows how much each shareholder owes for their shares, and each shareholder should pay for them. Okay. Can't just be one. Dave: Okay. So we have the bank account set up, we're ready to go. And so now we're at the end of the year, or approaching the end of the year. Let's say we're in November of 2026. Anything we need to do before the end of the year Brian for an accrual based taxpayer? No. Okay. There's nothing paid to do, but before the end of the year. Dave: And what about for a cash basis? Brian For a cash basis, taxpayer, if we want a deduction in 2026. We need to pay the DIS in 2026, so Dave: we Brian would need to gather information in order to estimate a DIS commission for 2026 before the end of the year. Dave: Okay. So cash basis, that's what we need to do by the end of the year. Accrual basis. Basis, no. Do I need to do [00:32:00] anything by the end of the year? Brian You don't need to. You have an option to, if you'd like to, if you wanna have an idea of what the disc commission might be, or you actually wanna pay it before the end of the year, but there's no requirement. Dave: Yeah. And if you don't, and if you don't pay it by the end of the year, you get a deferral benefit Brian possibly. Dave: Yeah so say, say you did a hundred million of exports and your commission was $20 million. You just get to defer that whole thing till the next year, right? Brian No, Dave: no. Brian, all you say is No. Every good idea have you just say No. Brian It could defer 10% of it to the next year because only the income related to 10 million of export sales can be deferred, and it'd be a little less than 10% because the disc wasn't there the whole year. So we'd have to prorate that 10 million for the number of days the disc existed. And then some sliver can be deferred, but the rest of it is gonna be taxed to the shareholders as a deemed dividend Dave: in the current year. In the Brian current. Dave: Okay. Brian Then not taxed when physically distributed in the following. Dave: Okay, so we have an accrual tax payer. We get into the to 2027, and let's say they're extending their corporate return and they're planning to file that in August of 27. So we're done. We don't have anything else to do before August. Right? Brian That's not true either. Dave: Brian, Brian you're Dave: killing me. Brian Yeah, well, it, I mean, it depends. If nothing was done before the end of the year, then something needs to be done within the first 60 days after the accrual base taxpayer. Or, you know, let's say the cash base taxpayer says, I don't [00:34:00] care if I get my deduction next year, so I'm not gonna pay anything this year. Something needs to be paid at this within 60 days of the end of the year. Dave: So is this one of those things like the sales agent agreement, that that's just recommended? Brian No, this is required. Dave: Required. Okay. Brian Yeah. This is required. This is, this is one of the hot buttons the IRS will try to use to disqualify your disc. Dave: Okay. Brian So the disc accrues a receivable at the end of the year, even though it doesn't know the amount at the end of the year for all, for, for disc purposes and books an an accrual for the income at the end of the year. That accrual or the receivable is only a qualified export asset if, if the payment rules around that receivable or satisfy. Dave: Okay. Okay. Brian One Dave: rule Rules. Rules. There's always rules. Brian Yeah. It's very draconian. You have a 60 day rule and a 90 day rule. 60 day rule says you must pay a reasonable estimate of the disc commission to the disc within 60 days of the end of the year in cash or. It could be cash, it could be a note. Dave: And reasonable is just any old amount. You just put your finger in the air and ah, I think a hundred dollars is reasonable. Brian Again, that's not the case. There is a safe harbor for what is reasonable, and that safe harbor is f at least 50% of the final commission amount that you Dave: determine. But how do you know that in February Brian you have, Dave: if you're not preparing the corporate, Brian you have to try to compute an estimate before the end of FE Dave: and you have to nail it exactly at 50%. So if you think the commission's gonna be $1,217,412, you need to pay exactly 50% of that, Brian at least. [00:36:00] Dave: Oh, at least. So you could pay more. At Brian least you could pay more. And we always recommend maybe paying 75 to 80%. Dave: Okay. Brian Because if you pay whatever you pay. That amount is gonna be your limit. So if you thought it was gonna be a million and you paid 500,000 and it turns out to be 1,000,500, too bad. So sad, you only paid 500,000, you're capped at a million. Dave: Okay? I mean, that's the safe harbor. I suppose there might be circumstances where, where one could argue that they maybe the first year of the disc, and you know, they, they, Brian you can argue it, you can try to argue it, but there's no guarantee that the IS will accept any of the arguments. And the private letter rulings that exist from the 1970s would imply that they, they're really not going to accept just about any rationale for being reasonable other than that 50% bright [00:37:00] line safe harbor. Dave: Okay so you make the payment, Brian make that payment, and. Dave: Can you just book a journal entry? Do you, do you actually have to really move the money? It sounds like a hassle. Brian I mean, in, in general you have to, you have to either create a note or move cash. Dave: Okay. Brian Okay. Dave: But that might be a lot of money though. Like what if, what if it's like $2 million and million? The company only has a million dollars in the bank. Brian They could use the same capital multiple times. Dave: Oh, okay. Brian And roundtrip the money as many times as they need to, or like I said, use the, use the promissory note. Dave: Okay. Brian Short term promissory note to satisfy that requirement because it does say cash or property. Dave: Okay. So we get through February, we've made our, our 60 day payment. We've, we've, you know, sh sh we've, we, instead of doing 50%, we did about 80% of what we thought it was gonna be to give us some cushion, and now we can go take a vacation till the till the corporate returns ready. Brian Yeah. I, I, I think so. Dave: Okay. Brian I think so. Dave: Okay. So it's time to now. So it's time. Now, if they extend that corporate return, I guess they're gonna have to extend the disc return as well. Brian Well, the disc return is due September 15th as a matter of course. Dave: Oh, Brian are handy. There are no extensions. So really as far as the disc and its compliance goes, once you make that 60 day payment, there's really not much you can or should do or are able to do until the related entities tax return. Prepared. [00:39:00] So a lot of times they'll say, well, that's not gonna be done till September 15th, and we have to have a discussion about how that doesn't work because the disc return has to be done by September 15th, but in order to do the disc return, you need to basically a completed within it supplier returns. So then we have to work backwards from September 15th to figure out like when's the latest they can have that, that other return done in order Dave: to Brian get the disc return done. Now that's relatively easy in the past through context because all those pass through returns are also due September 15th on extension. Dave: Sure. Brian Whereas a C corporation, it's not so easy because the extended due date for a C corporation, if it's a calendar year is October 15th. So it may be that you have to file a disc return with a made up number on time and then amend it after. Okay. After September 15th. I've done that a number of times. Dave: Okay. So that makes sense. Brian Because as is good as CPAs are, they're deadline driven. So if a return is due October 15th, they're unlikely to have it done by the end of August. Dave: Yeah. Okay. So it's time to file the disc return. I assume the CPA firm probably has that disc return and their standard tax software with all the other forms. So you just have the CPA go ahead and prepare the disc return. I've looked at it, it's a short return. It's like 10 pages long. So you just go ahead and have the CPA prepare the disc return, then bing, bam, boom, you're done. Brian Could do that. Dave: Okay. Is there a drawback to doing that? Brian Yeah, it would probably be wrong. Dave: Okay. Why do you say that? Now, remember [Brian, we have a lot of CPAs who we have very good relationships with that we share clients, you know, saying that they're probably gonna do it wrong. I mean, heck, I don't really wanna annoy all my great CPAs we work with Brian Well, okay, but it, well, it's just a fact. It'll probably okay Dave: be Brian wrong because they might see one or two or three a year. They, they think they know what all the different terms on the district return mean, but they're not as familiar with that as they are with a S Corp return or a partnership return, or 1120. So they do what they think is right, and it may be right, it may not be right. So again, I, in my opinion, you want a specialist preparing the district return. Dave: Okay. Brian Okay. Because we know exactly how it's supposed to be filled out. And then if, if the calculation is done on a transaction by transaction [00:42:00] basis, there's this schedule P that gets attached to the return. Well, if you don't do a T by T, there's one Schedule P. If you do a T by T, there could be thousands of them. So I don't think CPAs and their software are equipped to complete thousands of schedule Ps and attach Dave: Yeah. Brian To the district. Dave: No, good point. And you're, you're getting your your enthusiasm to get to T by t had me, you got a little ahead of me. 'cause I was gonna ask, so client says, Hey, we have a desk. Our accounting department's busy. What's just the bare minimum of information we need to send you? What's the bare minimum? Brian Bare minimum would be qualified export sales. Dave: They just need to send you a number. Brian Yes. Dave: Then you take that number and how hard can it be? Right. Just take the, Brian it's not, it's not necessarily that hard at that point. Dave: Yeah. But say the profit on those sales [00:43:00] is the average profit of the company and taxable profit. And you compute the disc commission, you go through the Schedule P and compute the disc commission and pick the higher of the two numbers that you, that you compute. So you would just be like the final draft, corporate return and that total export number, you know, dollar amount for the year. And, and that's really all you need to, to do. That's Brian the bare bone. That's the bare bones, yeah. Dave: Okay. And that's what some people would call the standard calculation or a simple calculation, Brian I'd call it simple. Yeah. Dave: Okay. And that's also known as the 4% 50% calculation in some circles. Right. How does that work? Brian Well, it's also known as the safe harbor calculation in certain circles as well. Back to that, Dave: back to that safe harbor again. Brian Yeah. But that's actually not a safe harbor, so that's why I bring that up. Dave: Okay, well Brian that's the safe harbor calculation. I'm like, no, it's not. It's just the [00:44:00] calculation. There's nothing safe harbor about Dave: it. Okay. Brian Okay. It's just the rules that are found in the code and regs for computing and disc commission, and they're the two predominant methods. 4% of sales and the 50% of net profit, Dave: you just cherry pick whichever one works better. Brian Yeah, but the 4% method has limitations. So Dave: more limitations probably. Why? Why can't this just be simple? You said it was the simple calculation and now you're already telling me there's inherent complexity. Brian Even if it's simple, it's not totally simple. Dave: Okay. Okay, Brian so the, and I've seen this done wrong. Millions, well, not millions, hundreds of times, and I can say it is hundreds of times. Client computes the 4% method just by choosing 4% of sales. They don't look at what their net income is on the, on the [00:45:00] activity. They just say, oh, I'm allowed to use 4% of sales. The limit there is you cannot create a loss. There's something called the no loss rules. You can't create a loss with a disc commission if one doesn't already exist. So if the profit on, say, on the sales are 2% of sales, you can't take 4% of sales. You're limited to 2% of sales. And if, for example, you have a loss of the company, you're limited to zero. But I've seen situations where that's completely ignored. Dave: Okay? Brian Properly computed this commission of 4% of sales, but it should have been something less or possibly zero. Dave: Okay? So more complexity, but the good news, that's the extent of the complexity. One, schedule P, 4%, 50%, you know, make sure you, you don't create a loss. Now we're, we're all done. Pop. You [00:46:00] know what, what? Dusted and dusted and delivered we're, we're good to go. They've maximized their dis commission, right? And we're all done. They have a nice 10 page return to send to the IRS. Which by the way, can they file that electronically, that return? Brian Fortunately, there are no provisions for electronic filing of the disc return. It must be, Dave: what is this, the 1970s or something? Brian Pretty much Dave: Okay Brian with, with regard to the disc? Yeah. And, and some other forms. Yeah. But the, the, the benefit of that, here, I'll give you a benefit. The benefit of the fact that you must file a paper return is they can have an electronic signature on it. Okay. It doesn't have to have a wet signature. Dave: Okay? Okay. Brian So you could theoretically, for example, send your client the return using DocuSign, have them sign it. You print it, you file it for, Dave: okay. Okay. But, but now we're finally done. It's signed, it's done. And they say, boy, thank you very much, Brian. You've done, your team did a great job, and boy, I really appreciate, you know, we had 10 million of exports. We have all kinds of variability in our profit margins. And, but thank you very much. You, you created the amazing $400,000 or you calculated the 400,000 disc commission. Thank you very much. I couldn't imagine you went above and beyond. I couldn't imagine you could have done anything more. And then what do you say? Do you graciously say, oh, you're welcome. It was our pleasure. Brian I would graciously say, you know, we, we've just computed your minimum disc commission. Dave: Okay, Brian not your maximum. Because you have Dave: vast, lemme guess. Lemme guess. There's more complexity coming. Brian More complexity, which relies on more data being. Pulled from the client's [00:48:00] records to, to allow for a calculation of the DISC commission at a more detailed level, ideally at a line item by invoice level, Dave: line item. That sounds like a lot of work. Brian It can be. Can be a Dave: lot. What if the client says, our accounting department's busy? Sounds like we're gonna have to spend weeks gathering all this data for you. Eh, it's just, we're too busy, it's not worth it. What do you say then? Brian I gu I almost can guarantee you it will be worth it. Okay. Because looking at the detail is likely to cause at Disconnect commission to be anywhere from 50 to three, 400% higher than what it otherwise would've been. Now, unfortunately, in that first year, since you've already filed with a certain number, you're limited to two times what you paid in that 60 day window. But going forward. You know, there's no limit. Dave: Okay. Brian Whatever we compute can be your disc commission. So different industries have different amount of variability and t and transaction by transaction calculations have different impacts depending upon the industry, the profitability of the business, how many products they have, who they sell to. But it can vary. But I'll give you an example of one that we worked on recently where company had a hundred million of export sales. They took 4% of sales, and they've been taking 4% of sales year after year, after year, after year, after year, Dave: okay. Brian They brought us in like three weeks before the district return. Dave: Okay. Brian And we went through the calculations and we actually calculated 17 million Dave: as opposed to 4 million. Brian As opposed to four. Dave: [00:50:00] Yikes. That's a big difference. Brian It's a huge difference. And fortunately they were, you know, well, I mean they were very pleased with the result. And so now on a going forward basis, we're not doing 4% of sales. Dave: Okay? But you still have this. But if they were able to get a $17 million commission, then that means their corporate taxable income must have been at least 17 million. 'cause didn't I hear you say the disc commission cannot cause a loss. Brian It cannot cause a loss at the level at which you're computing the commission. So there's no, you're killing me, Brian. Just more complexity. Yeah. Well, it's very complex area. There's, there's no overall no loss rule. Like if you, you can, as long as you're meeting the rules as they're written, you can cause your entity to go into a loss position. Now, this particular instance, it did not do that, but [00:51:00] you could do that. Dave: Okay. And then if you get into a loss position, there are other non disc complexities that come into play that impact whether you want to maximize the loss in that entity or you want to target a particular loss in that entity. And that's not something that we get involved with, but we're certainly sensitive to it. Sure. Sure. And so you're saying for this client, even though I've heard some people say you've got the simple calc and then the hard calc. And so you'd wonder why would anyone do the hard calc? Well, it's because their commission went from 4 million to 17 million, which saved them hundreds of thousands of dollars. You created hundreds or millions of dollars with additional tax savings. Brian Right, right. Dave: Okay. Brian And by the way, after the first conversation we had with them, they said, oh [00:52:00] yeah, this is not something we can do. The accounting department said, this is not something we can do. Then the owner said, this is something you're gonna, Dave: it's funny how that, how that works. Okay. And then I'm guessing this extra work. You, you're probably gonna have to create another schedule P or two. So now the disc return, it's gonna be 10 pages. It's what? 20 pages? Is that kind of a typical page count? Brian No, it could be Dave: no. Brian Thousands of pages. Dave: Thousands. I mean, Brian, a ream of paper is 500. So thousands would be reams of paper. Brian Yes. I've had some returns that have like 15 binders of paper. Dave: Yikes. Brian Yeah. Just goes in a big box and I'm sure the IRS types, all those schedule Ps into their, Dave: I'm sure they do. Okay. So the return gets filed, so the return's ready. You take that box, you just slap a you print off a postal label online, drop it off at the post office. And you're done, right? You just give it to carrier, Brian understand, Dave: carrier, carrier your house or whatever. Brian Well, you can send it via FedEx. You can send it via UPS. And actually, in some ways, I think that might be better these days than the postal service. Dave: And why do you have to do that? Can you just slap, I mean, if you have your 15 binders, couldn't you just put a hundred stamps, you know, on the, the box and ship it in because they'll get it, right? I mean, it's not like they're gonna lose it or anything. Brian They might, they could very well lose it. And you definitely want proof of delivery and you want proof of mailing. So again, it's a certified mail if you're using the postal service or if you're using a private carrier like FedEx, you know, you get all that documentation about when it was shipped and when it was delivered.[00:54:00] Dave: Okay, well now at least we're finally done. Right? You ship it off. The CPA pulls the numbers from the disc return, puts it on the corporate and shareholder returns. Now we're done. It's gone to the IRS. We never have to think about it again. Right. Brian I'm not sure if that's a trick question or not, but in some ways that could be true, Dave: right? Yeah. But it, but I guess you could get audited, right? Brian Could get audited by an agent who has no idea what they're doing, which is typically the case. Dave: So that's why you want your CPA defending you in that case. 'cause then it's like the blind leading the blind. Brian No, I think it's better if someone with site is involved. So again, the specialist who did the disc work should represent the taxpayer or be involved with the representation of taxpayer in the case of the audit. Dave: Okay. Brian And the should be involved. Because really what's under, what's really in question is the [00:55:00] deduction on that entity's tax return. The dis itself doesn't pay tax. So they rarely audit a dis quote. Dave: Okay? So if I break it down, you to do it really right? You need a specialist to guide you on the initial structure of the disc. You need another specialist to set up the, the disc. You need another specialist to do all the paperwork, make sure the document's correct another specialist to prepare the return, and then another specialist to defend you. So is that about right? So do you need like five different people to make sure everything's done right? Brian? Isn't there some way that you could just have one person that could just do it all for you and be done with it? Brian Well, of course. Dave: Okay. Finally, finally, I get a simple answer, Brian right? So if you, if you engage a disc specialist, that [specialist should be able to do all that. Dave: Okay? Brian Okay. Now, not every disc specialist is created equally. Dave: Sure. Brian You know, I brought up during our conversation that there are some non disc things that can also add complexity to the situation. Not every disc specialist will be sensitive to those things. Not every disc specialist will understand those things. So the benefits that like our organization brings is that. Least myself in particular, I didn't always just do IC disc work. I, I, I have a well-rounded knowledge of all of the, of the tax world. And so I am sensitive to non disc things. You know, for example, you know, another example, oh, a company has a lot of export sales. You would think it's a no brainer. They should have a dis, they should use the dis. They should, they, they should want to convert that ordinary income to qualified dividend [00:57:00] income. Well, what if the S-corp is owned by an ebit? What if there are passive shareholders? All of those things impact whether the disc commission actually helps or hurts their tax situation. And I would get, I would venture a guess that, you know, if you went out and Googled, you know, I see this specialist, you would find a handful. At most that understand all that stuff and how all it all interplays together as opposed to the multitude of those that won't understand any of it. Dave: Okay. Brian So I think a, a disc specialist that is sensitive to all the other tax rules is, is definitely something that is valuable. Dave: And you probably want someone with some experience who's done maybe, you know, what a dozen disc returns in their career, maybe 50 if they're really good. Like how many, how many have we done organization wide? Probably Brian probably 10,000. Dave: 10,000? Well, that's a lot more than 50. Brian Yes. Over the years it's probably close to that number. And we've probably claimed billions of dollars of just deductions and saved clients, hundreds of millions of dollars of tax. And, and I'm proud to say that every dollar we've ever claimed we've. Okay. Dave: So Brian I've never had an adjustment from the IRS. Dave: Well, that sounds like a, a good a good record. So bottom line, Brian that's, that's the best you can come up with a good record. I'd say it's Dave: well, I didn't wanna say a perfect record. I didn't want to jinxy. Brian No, but it's, it's, it's, it's pretty outstanding record. Dave: Yeah. It's a, it's an impressive record Brian because there are also just providers out there that say, well, you know, Dave: it's the Wild West. Brian The wild west, the IRS doesn't really understand it, so let's be as aggressive as possible. And, and that's not the way we approach it. Dave: Yeah. Wow. Well, this has been this has been a lot. So really it's that simple. So the person who wants to just do all this themselves, we've laid out the whole playbook for them. Brian Yeah. The only simple thing they have to do is call us. Dave: There you go. That is it. Yeah. And, and oh, the other thing, not only are you the Bob, hope you now have moved from number two to number one for the most experienced icy disc guy. I know now that Neil Block is retired. Brian Well, that's, I don't know if that's a plus or not. Whether I'll take it just means I've been doing it a long time myself. So Dave: yeah, Neil was, I think my second, first or second guess. And and I was just happy. 'cause his billing rate back then was like $1,500 an hour. I was just glad I didn't get a bill a month later for him being on the podcast. But he, [01:00:00] he did it for exactly 50 years at one firm, baker and McKinsey in Chicago. He had one office, one phone number, like the whole 50 years. Brian Yeah. That's, Dave: that is something you don't see much anymore. Brian Definitely not, no. It's, but it's very, that's. That's very cool. And Neil is a very, you know, is a very intelligent savvy guy. Dave: Yeah, that is for sure. Well, Brian, anything else that we didn't cover that you can think of? Brian I can't think of anything. I think we covered a, a great deal here. Dave: Okay. Brian Can't think. Dave: Well, I, I'll let Brian we omitted. Dave: Well, great. Well, hey, thank you so much for your time. Really appreciate it. And I'll let you get back to your, your exploration of your yard there. Brian Yeah. I feel like, it's funny I shrunk the kids. Dave: I know. Well, hey, well, well again, thanks again, Brian. We all appreciate your time. Brian You're welcome. Have a good day. Dave: You too.

We dive into what Robert Monroe wrote in his book Ultimate Journey about what the highly sought after human export is that so desirable in the universe. Spoiler: it is not what you're probably thinking. We dive further into the third book in his series on his own out of body experiences and the great pieces of information he learned through his travels. Robert Monroe started The Monroe Institute and was one of the earliest proponents of trying to help people understand and experience out of body states or what he calls the nonphysical. You can listen to his mediation programs or visit the institute to learn these techniques. There is a lot of speculation and unfortunate conspiracy theories surrounding some of his ideas and information which he wrote about. He was indeed a pioneer. You can find more on my stand-up schedule, short films and more at: ⁠https://ryansingercomedy.com/⁠ ⁠Commercial Free episodes here!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SpectreVision Radio is a bespoke podcast network at the intersection between the arts and the uncanny, featuring a tapestry of shows exploring creativity, the esoteric, and the unknown. We're a community for creators and fans vibrating around common curiosities, shared interests and persistent passions. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Listen to the SF Daily podcast for today, January 27, 2026, with host Lorrie Boyer. These quick and informative episodes cover the commodity markets, weather, and the big things happening in agriculture each morning. There are weather concerns in South America, particularly Argentina, where crop ratings are declining due to spreading dryness. In the U.S., bitter cold persists, and global tensions are high, with President Trump threatening to raise tariffs on South Korea. Export inspections were mixed, with corn assessments rising, but wheat and soybean inspections declining. Cattle futures are up, with feedlots holding out for higher cash prices. Extreme cold warnings are in effect across the U.S., with wind chills reaching 20 degrees below zero in some areas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of The Better Life, Dr. Pinkston sits down with renowned philosopher and author Thomas Attig to tackle one of life’s most difficult and avoided subjects: death and grieving. Moving beyond the common "five stages" model, Thomas shares his unique existential approach to loss. He explains that grieving isn't just a reaction that washes over us—it is an active response where we must reconstruct our daily lives and redirect our personal histories. Dr. Pinkston and Thomas explore the concept of "dancing with the mysteries," encouraging listeners to embrace their fragile humanity—including vulnerability and impermanence—rather than fighting against it. Key topics discussed include: Why contemporary medicine often fails to address the deep emotional work of grieving. The difference between Everyday Problems (managed by the ego) and Mysteries (responded to by the soul). How to find "wise people" in your own life who can listen without judgment. Practical insights from Thomas's books, Seeking Wisdom in Death’s Shadow and Catching Your Breath in Grief. Understanding the Active Process of Grief Thomas Attig emphasizes that grieving is a dual experience involving both passive suffering and active engagement. FeatureGrief as Reaction (Passive)Grief as Response (Active)ExperienceFeelings of sadness and distress "washing over" you.Re-learning how to live in a world that has changed.ActionCrying, screaming, or waiting for time to heal the wound.Reshaping daily routines and finding new meaning.FocusThe emotional "hit" of the loss.The intentional effort to put a life back together.Export to SheetsThe Four Constants of Fragile Humanity Dr. Pinkston and Thomas discuss four essential truths that humans often try to deny, which can lead to chronic unhappiness. To live with integrity, we must accept that we are: Small and Insignificant in the grand scale of the universe. Susceptible to Suffering and physical pain. Living in Uncertainty without all the answers. Impermanent and susceptible to dying. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Mark this prediction | Indian Defence Export to Cross $10 billion by 2030 | 50% Growth this year

In this episode, Wendy sits down with Mike Hubbard, Director of International Trade at the Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina, for a practical, story-driven look at what actually makes exporting work.  Mike breaks down how their team helps companies move from “we should sell overseas” to a real plan: covering compliance, market research, cultural training, distributor introductions, trade missions, and even grants that can reimburse costs like translation. Along the way, he shares vivid examples: a small home furnishings company that won business in the Middle East because she localized a simple postcard and website into Arabic, why “clunky” machine translation can quietly push buyers away, and how smart market selection (like targeting the UK and South Africa before Canada/Mexico for a medical device) can unlock growth faster than you'd expect. You'll learn: How to build an export strategy that isn't “go to a trade show and hope”—including the core pieces Mike insists on: compliance, market intelligence, and a written market entry plan. Why translation and cultural adaptation are revenue levers (not “nice-to-haves”)—with real examples of how localized materials signal seriousness and reduce friction for buyers. How to pick the right first markets and avoid expensive dead ends—especially when regulations, certifications, labeling rules, and relationship-based selling vary wildly by country.

Episode 144Happy New Year! This is one of my favorite episodes of the year — for the fourth time, Nathan Benaich and I did our yearly roundup of AI news and advancements, including selections from this year's State of AI Report.If you've stuck around and continue to listen, I'm really thankful you're here. I love hearing from you.You can find Nathan and Air Street Press here on Substack and on Twitter, LinkedIn, and his personal site. Check out his writing at press.airstreet.com.Find me on Twitter (or LinkedIn if you want…) for updates on new episodes, and reach me at editor@thegradient.pub for feedback, ideas, guest suggestions.Outline* (00:00) Intro* (00:44) Air Street Capital and Nathan world* Nathan's path from cancer research and bioinformatics to AI investing* The “evergreen thesis” of AI from niche to ubiquitous* Portfolio highlights: Eleven Labs, Synthesia, Crusoe* (03:44) Geographic flexibility: Europe vs. the US* Why SF isn't always the best place for original decisions* Industry diversity in New York vs. San Francisco* The Munich Security Conference and Europe's defense pivot* Playing macro games from a European vantage point* (07:55) VC investment styles and the “solo GP” approach* Taste as the determinant of investments* SF as a momentum game with small information asymmetry* Portfolio diversity: defense (Delian), embodied AI (Syriact), protein engineering* Finding entrepreneurs who “can't do anything else”* (10:44) State of AI progress in 2025* Momentous progress in writing, research, computer use, image, and video* We're in the “instruction manual” phase* The scale of investment: private markets, public markets, and nation states* (13:21) Range of outcomes and what “going bad” looks like* Today's systems are genuinely useful—worst case is a valuation problem* Financialization of AI buildouts and GPUs* (14:55) DeepSeek and China closing the capability gap* Seven-month lag analysis (Epoch AI)* Benchmark skepticism and consumer preferences (”Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi”)* Hedonic adaptation: humans reset expectations extremely quickly* Bifurcation of model companies toward specific product bets* (18:29) Export controls and the “evolutionary pressure” argument* Selective pressure breeds innovation* Chinese companies rushing to public markets (Minimax, ZAI)* (21:30) Reasoning models and test-time compute* Chain of thought faithfulness questions* Monitorability tax: does observability reduce quality?* User confusion about when models should “think”* AI for science: literature agents, hypothesis generation* (23:53) Chain of thought interpretability and safety* Anthropomorphization concerns* Alignment faking and self-preservation behaviors* Cybersecurity as a bigger risk than existential risk* Models as payloads injected into critical systems* (27:26) Commercial traction and AI adoption data* Ramp data: 44% of US businesses paying for AI (up from 5% in early 2023)* Average contract values up to $530K from $39K* State of AI survey: 92% report productivity gains* The “slow takeoff” consensus and human inertia* Use cases: meeting notes, content generation, brainstorming, coding, financial analysis* (32:53) The industrial era of AI* Stargate and XAI data centers* Energy infrastructure: gas turbines and grid investment* Labs need to own models, data, compute, and power* Poolside's approach to owning infrastructure* (35:40) Venture capital in the age of massive GPU capex* The GP lives in the present, the entrepreneur in the future, the LP in the past* Generality vs. specialism narratives* “Two or 20”: management fees vs. carried interest* Scaling funds to match entrepreneur ambitions* (40:10) NVIDIA challengers and returns analysis* Chinese challengers: 6x return vs. 26x on NVIDIA* US challengers: 2x return vs. 12x on NVIDIA* Grok acquired for $20B; Samba Nova markdown to $1.6B* “The tide is lifting all boats”—demand exceeds supply* (44:06) The hardware lottery and architecture convergence* Transformer dominance and custom ASICs making a comeback* NVIDIA still 90–95% of published AI research* (45:49) AI regulation: Trump agenda and the EU AI Act* Domain-specific regulators vs. blanket AI policy* State-level experimentation creates stochasticity* EU AI Act: “born before GPT-4, takes effect in a world shaped by GPT-7”* Only three EU member states compliant by late 2025* (50:14) Sovereign AI: what it really means* True sovereignty requires energy, compute, data, talent, chip design, and manufacturing* The US is sovereign; the UK by itself is not* Form alliances or become world-class at one level of the stack* ASML and the Netherlands as an example* (52:33) Open weight safety and containment* Three paths: model-based safeguards, scaffolding/ecosystem, procedural/governance* “Pandora's box is open”—containment on distribution, not weights* Leak risk: the most vulnerable link is often human* Developer–policymaker communication and regulator upskilling* (55:43) China's AI safety approach* Matt Sheehan's work on Chinese AI regulation* Safety summits and China's participation* New Chinese policies: minor modes, mental health intervention, data governance* UK's rebrand from “safety” to “security” institutes* (58:34) Prior predictions and patterns* Hits on regulatory/political areas; misses on semiconductor consolidation, AI video games* (59:43) 2026 Predictions* A Chinese lab overtaking US on frontier (likely ZAI or DeepSeek, on scientific reasoning)* Data center NIMBYism influencing midterm politics* (01:01:01) ClosingLinks and ResourcesNathan / Air Street Capital* Air Street Capital* State of AI Report 2025* Air Street Press — essays, analysis, and the Guide to AI newsletter* Nathan on Substack* Nathan on Twitter/X* Nathan on LinkedInFrom Air Street Press (mentioned in episode)* Is the EU AI Act Actually Useful? — by Max Cutler and Nathan Benaich* China Has No Place at the UK AI Safety Summit (2023) — by Alex Chalmers and Nathan BenaichResearch & Analysis* Epoch AI: Chinese AI Models Lag US by 7 Months — the analysis referenced on the US-China capability gap* Sara Hooker: The Hardware Lottery — the essay on how hardware determines which research ideas succeed* Matt Sheehan: China's AI Regulations and How They Get Made — Carnegie EndowmentCompanies Mentioned* Eleven Labs — AI voice synthesis (Air Street portfolio)* Synthesia — AI video generation (Air Street portfolio)* Crusoe — clean compute infrastructure (Air Street portfolio)* Poolside — AI for code (Air Street portfolio)* DeepSeek — Chinese AI lab* Minimax — Chinese AI company* ASML — semiconductor equipmentOther Resources* Search Engine Podcast: Data Centers (Part 1 & 2) — PJ Vogt's two-part series on XAI data centers and the AI financing boom* RAAIS Foundation — Nathan's AI research and education charity Get full access to The Gradient at thegradientpub.substack.com/subscribe

Mexico's still-rising demand for U.S.-sourced natural gas — and new pipelines to deliver it — has been driven by the buildout of new power plants and, more recently, by planned LNG exports. Today, we discuss more private-sector midstreamers and the new gas demand that may bring them new opportunities.

Episode 502 takes you straight to the Oklahoma Wheat Commission booth at the AgriFest in Enid—where the smell of fresh bread and cinnamon rolls is basically a tractor beam for farmers. Dave Deken and Dr. Brian Arnall sit down with Kay County wheat producer Tom Cannon, now a new Oklahoma Wheat Commission board member, to pull back the curtain on what “checkoff dollars” actually do. Tom shares the producer-side view of how funds support wheat research (better varieties, better quality, better management), expand export demand (he notes about half of Oklahoma wheat is headed overseas), and build ag literacy through hands-on education.The conversation hits home on why wheat still matters in modern rotations—especially after drought and wind reminded everyone what bare ground can do. From no-till residue and moisture protection to the “wheat + cotton” tag-team, Tom makes the case that wheat is the foundational crop that holds systems (and small towns) together. And just for fun: you'll also hear about the “drone posse” concept—proof that Oklahoma agriculture is equal parts tradition, grit, and innovation.Top 10 takeawaysOklahoma winter wheat is a cornerstone crop economically and agronomically—and it still moves the needle statewide.Checkoff dollars are meant to act like a “marketing + research engine” for producers who are busy producing.Export market development is a major lever because a huge share of wheat demand is outside the local elevator.Producer education about checkoffs matters—refund requests signal a communication gap (Tom estimates ~6–8% refunded).Wheat's residue is “soil armor” in Oklahoma—helping reduce erosion, slow evaporation, and improve water capture.No-till isn't a set-it-and-forget-it system; it rewards deeper management—and wheat often anchors that system.Wheat and cotton can complement each other well in rotation, especially when you manage residue and planting windows.Research isn't just yield—quality traits (protein management, fiber work) protect demand and create new value opportunities.Wheat success ripples through rural economies: equipment, parts, groceries, schools—everyone feels good crop years.Leadership in ag often starts the same way: somebody asks you to step up… and you decide to say yes.Timestamped Rundown00:00–00:01 — Dave opens Episode 502; Oklahoma wheat scale and value context; tees up the topic.00:01–01:52 — Intro of Brian Arnall Ph.D.; episode recorded at the Oklahoma Wheat Commission booth at KNID AgriFest (Jan. 10, 2026).02:05–04:07 — On-location banter: the bread/cinnamon roll operation, on-site oven, “follow your nose” traffic pattern.04:10–05:23 — Call-back to Tom's earlier appearance (mental health); stigma fading; “it's okay to talk.”05:47–07:52 — Tom's path to the Wheat Commission board; why producer feedback matters; “their money” must be used wisely.07:52–11:59 — What the Commission does: promote wheat locally + worldwide; support OSU research; board debate + shared intent.12:01–13:35 — Export emphasis; Tom notes ~50% of production exported; “what would markets be without it?”13:35–16:52 — Research examples: nitrogen timing/protein, quality improvements, fiber-enriched wheat; surprise: refund requests (Tom estimates ~6–8%).17:07–17:55 — Why checkoffs exist: producers aren't “marketing departments,” commissions fill that role.18:00–21:25 — Wheat acres + rotations; drought lessons; wheat residue and soil protection; no-till adoption in Kay County.21:25–24:45 — Cotton + wheat synergy; residue realities; why wheat after cotton works; harvest/header/residue discussion.24:46–26:29 — Logistics: drill “following the picker,” gin/trucking systems to clear fields fast for planting.26:29–28:49 — “Drone posse” business model; co-op fleet idea; custom work potential (moving north during fungicide season).28:53–30:06 — Public-facing work: baking events, wheat quality promotion, school coloring books/education.30:06–33:47 — Wheat's ripple effect on rural towns (dealerships, stores, services); extra cents per bushel matters locally; OSU's role.34:17–35:58 — Upcoming advocacy: Wheat Day at the Capitol, Ag Day, DC visits; educating policymakers about food production.36:00–36:51 — Wrap-up and where to connect with the show. RedDirtAgronomy.com

Climate change is devastating the planet, and globalisation is hiding it. Laurie Parsons's book Carbon Colonialism: How Rich Countries Export Climate Breakdown (Manchester UP, 2023) opens our eyes.  Around the world, leading economies are announcing significant progress on climate change. World leaders are queuing up to proclaim their commitment to tackling the climate crisis, pointing to data that shows the progress they have made. Yet the atmosphere is still warming at a record rate, with devastating effects on poverty and precarity in the world's most vulnerable communities. Are we being deceived? Outsourcing climate breakdown explores the murky practices of exporting a country's environmental impact. A world in which corporations and countries are allowed to maintain a clean, green image while landfills in the world's poorest countries continue to expand and droughts and floods intensify under the auspices of globalisation, deregulation and economic growth. Taking a wide-ranging, culturally engaged approach to the topic, the book shows how this is notonly a technical problem, but a problem of cultural and political systems and structures - from nationalism to economic logic - deeply embedded in our society. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Climate change is devastating the planet, and globalisation is hiding it. Laurie Parsons's book Carbon Colonialism: How Rich Countries Export Climate Breakdown (Manchester UP, 2023) opens our eyes.  Around the world, leading economies are announcing significant progress on climate change. World leaders are queuing up to proclaim their commitment to tackling the climate crisis, pointing to data that shows the progress they have made. Yet the atmosphere is still warming at a record rate, with devastating effects on poverty and precarity in the world's most vulnerable communities. Are we being deceived? Outsourcing climate breakdown explores the murky practices of exporting a country's environmental impact. A world in which corporations and countries are allowed to maintain a clean, green image while landfills in the world's poorest countries continue to expand and droughts and floods intensify under the auspices of globalisation, deregulation and economic growth. Taking a wide-ranging, culturally engaged approach to the topic, the book shows how this is notonly a technical problem, but a problem of cultural and political systems and structures - from nationalism to economic logic - deeply embedded in our society. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/critical-theory

Climate change is devastating the planet, and globalisation is hiding it. Laurie Parsons's book Carbon Colonialism: How Rich Countries Export Climate Breakdown (Manchester UP, 2023) opens our eyes.  Around the world, leading economies are announcing significant progress on climate change. World leaders are queuing up to proclaim their commitment to tackling the climate crisis, pointing to data that shows the progress they have made. Yet the atmosphere is still warming at a record rate, with devastating effects on poverty and precarity in the world's most vulnerable communities. Are we being deceived? Outsourcing climate breakdown explores the murky practices of exporting a country's environmental impact. A world in which corporations and countries are allowed to maintain a clean, green image while landfills in the world's poorest countries continue to expand and droughts and floods intensify under the auspices of globalisation, deregulation and economic growth. Taking a wide-ranging, culturally engaged approach to the topic, the book shows how this is notonly a technical problem, but a problem of cultural and political systems and structures - from nationalism to economic logic - deeply embedded in our society. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/world-affairs

Climate change is devastating the planet, and globalisation is hiding it. Laurie Parsons's book Carbon Colonialism: How Rich Countries Export Climate Breakdown (Manchester UP, 2023) opens our eyes.  Around the world, leading economies are announcing significant progress on climate change. World leaders are queuing up to proclaim their commitment to tackling the climate crisis, pointing to data that shows the progress they have made. Yet the atmosphere is still warming at a record rate, with devastating effects on poverty and precarity in the world's most vulnerable communities. Are we being deceived? Outsourcing climate breakdown explores the murky practices of exporting a country's environmental impact. A world in which corporations and countries are allowed to maintain a clean, green image while landfills in the world's poorest countries continue to expand and droughts and floods intensify under the auspices of globalisation, deregulation and economic growth. Taking a wide-ranging, culturally engaged approach to the topic, the book shows how this is notonly a technical problem, but a problem of cultural and political systems and structures - from nationalism to economic logic - deeply embedded in our society. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/environmental-studies

Trust us, this episode with Coletta Rydzek is loaded with honest talk, fresh gossip, and a ton of laughs. We kick things off diving into German ski culture: strict performance tests, old-school coaching styles, and how things are changing for the better (thanks to some Scandinavian influence and a little more flexibility). Coletta Rydzek opens up about her own journey, hitting her stride after a rocky start, and even shares what it was like to win her first World Cup with her brother cheering her on.Of course, we also got some spicy rumors for you - dating drama in the athlete world, boyfriend talk, and a peek at what goes down on TikTok and at German ski camps. Plus, if you've ever wondered why biathlon is basically a religion in Germany or got confused by all these weird testing acronyms, you'll want to stick around!

China's Military Technology and Export Capabilities in Conflict ZonesPREVIEW FOR LATER: GUEST JACK BURNHAM. Jack Burnham explores China's supply of air defense radars to Venezuela and its relationship with Iran. While these systems are tested in foreign conflicts, Burnham notes that Venezuelan military incompetence makes it difficult to accurately judge the true effectiveness of Chinese military hardware against Western equipment.1906

Listen to the SF Daily podcast for today, January 13, 2026, with host Lorrie Boyer. These quick and informative episodes cover the commodity markets, weather, and the big things happening in agriculture each morning. USDA data on corn markets, including increased harvested acres, national yield, and production, as well as raised global corn ending stocks and US cash price estimates. Export inspections for corn, soybeans, and wheat saw significant increases. In livestock, packers purchased some cattle for deferred delivery, while feedlots held out for higher cash cattle prices. The WASDE report was favorable for the cattle market. Weather forecasts included snow and ice in northern Minnesota and strong winds in central Iowa, potentially affecting agricultural activities. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Welcome back to #WithSONAR! This week, we're diving into Batch Rate Intelligence, SONAR's multi-lane pricing tool designed to support short-term pricing decisions and RFP strategy with downloadable, market-aligned rate intelligence. In this session, you'll learn how to: -Access Batch Rate Intelligence within SONAR applications -Upload lanes using the downloadable template or work directly in the UI -View real-time broker-to-carrier spot rates updated daily -Compare spot and contract rates (where available) to evaluate margin and spread -Understand lane scores to gauge capacity difficulty and pricing leverage -Monitor daily rejection rates to anticipate spot rate pressure -Export full datasets for Excel-based RFP analysis and customization Batch Rate Intelligence is an add-on within SONAR and is especially valuable as we head into RFP season, helping ensure your pricing reflects real-time market conditions.

The U.S. economic policy seems to be “run it hot,” argues Reid I'Anson, anticipating 50-75 bps in rate cuts this year and higher deficit spending. However, this creates concerns about inflation. “You have to focus on the U.S. consumer this year,” he adds; it really has to “pick up this year.” Abroad, he calls the Chinese economy unbalanced, but thinks its exports will remain strong. However, it is seeking customers outside the U.S., and he says to watch whether places like Europe raise import controls. Reid also comments on what could come out of the unrest in Iran. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Listen to the SF Daily podcast for today, January 8, 2026, with host Lorrie Boyer. These quick and informative episodes cover the commodity markets, weather, and the big things happening in agriculture each morning. With traders adjusting ahead of the USDA report expected to show slightly lower corn and soybean production. Export demand, particularly from China, remains crucial. Ethanol production dropped to 1.098 million barrels per day, with stocks reaching a five-month high. Cattle futures corrected after overbought conditions, and cash cattle trade is anticipated. The new dietary guidelines prioritize meat, dairy, fruit, and vegetables. Weather forecasts predict light snow in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with potential for more snow on Saturday. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

First, we talk to The Indian Express' Anand Mohan about the deaths and hospitalisations that have happened in Indore due to contaminated water. He shares about the current situation, the investigation and the government's response. Next, we talk to The Indian Express' Ravi Dutta Mishra about the situation of Indian exports post the implementation of the 50% tariffs by the US. He talks about how the exports have been impacted and the other factors that have been responsible for the growth and drop in the exports. (16:19)Lastly, we speak about K Kavitha, the former leader of the Bharat Rashtra Samiti and daughter of BRS chief and former CM K Chandrashekar Rao, who has quit as a Member of the Legislative Council and launched a sharp attack on the party founded by her father. (26:37)Hosted by Niharika NandaProduced by Niharika Nanda and Shashank BhargavaEdited and mixed by Suresh PawarLinks for our episode in association with XLRI:https://indianexpress.com/audio/3-things/xlri-the-legacy-of-creating-efficient-and-empathetic-leaders/10356006/ https://youtu.be/tPNOMSEvZqg?si=zJOjr1EZajt6bexK

US President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks at a GOP member retreat at 10:00EST/15:00GMT on Tuesday and will participate in a meeting at 14.30EST/19:30GMT on Tuesday.China Commerce Ministry imposes export controls on dual-use items to Japan, effective immediately.European bourses are mostly firmer; US equity futures are mixed, with the RTY under slight pressure.Mostly uneventful trade across G10s but EUR subdued post-PMI & German State CPI.Bonds initially pressured before EGBs benefitting from German State CPIs ahead of the 13:00GMT mainland print.Crude initially lower but now a touch in the green; XAU extends on Monday's gains as Copper reaches another ATH.Looking ahead, German CPI (Dec), US S&P PMI Final (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Barkin, US President Trump, Fed Discount Rate Minutes.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Protect Your Retirement with a PHYSICAL Gold and/or Silver IRA https://www.sgtreportgold.com/ CALL( 877) 646-5347 - You Can Trust Noble Gold ---- January 1st, 2026 is the first day that changes everything for the global physical silver market: Export controls go into effect for the world's most undervalued tangible asset, PHYSICAL silver. China is locking their vaults as what remains of physical Silver in the West is drained from both the LBMA and COMEX. In this discussion with precious metals expert David Jensen we discuss fiat facts that will make you vomit, Asian guy's videos and much more.   David's Substack: As Sovereign Bonds Sell-Off Physical Silver Shortage In London Continues https://tinyurl.com/ycyz3dv3   They are destroying us all, here's the PROOF: https://www.coinflation.com/silver_coin_values.html https://rumble.com/embed/v71kjnq/?pub=2peuz

We are away for Christmas, so this is a repeat of a previous episode. Mistrust in science has never been higher. Fewer people are getting vaccinated, a known vaccine skeptic is leading the most powerful health agency in America and an outbreak of measels in Texas this year led to the first fatalities in almost a decade. Then, in August, a gunman opened fire on the headquarters of the Centre for Disease Control with many speculating he was fuelled by misinformation about health. Increasingly this misinformation is being exported around the world. Marianna Spring is the BBC's Social Media Investigations Correspondent and tells the story of how suspicion of science in America helped radicalise a British mom with devastating consequences. Producers: Cat Farnsworth and Lucy Pawle Executive producer: Annie Brown Mix: Travis Evans Senior news editor: China Collins Photo: Kate Shemirani. Martin Pope / Getty

In dieser Episode diskutieren Marco Herack und Ulrich die aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen, die Deutschland und China betreffen. Sie beleuchten die Auswirkungen der RMB-Aufwertung auf die deutsche Wirtschaft, die Herausforderungen der deutschen Automobilindustrie und die strategischen Veränderungen in China. Die Diskussion umfasst auch die Rolle von Inflation, Handelsbeziehungen und die Notwendigkeit von Innovationen in der deutschen Industrie. In dieser Episode diskutieren Ulrich und Marco die aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen, die Deutschland und Europa betreffen, insbesondere im Kontext der Energiekrise und der Konkurrenz durch China. Sie beleuchten die Notwendigkeit einer klaren Zukunftsvision für die deutsche Industrie und die Rolle der Politik in der Wirtschaft. Zudem wird die Situation des chinesischen Immobilienmarktes und dessen Auswirkungen auf die Konsumneigung der Bevölkerung thematisiert. Abschließend wird die Bedeutung technologischer Entwicklungen und deren Einfluss auf die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit hervorgehoben. (Zusammenfassung von Riverside AI)

NIO ended 2025 up 26%, but the journey was wild. XPeng kept over-promising. OpenAI just became too big to fail. And $160 million in Nvidia chips got smuggled to China. This is my 2025 year-end review covering everything that mattered.Thank you for rocking with Courtside Financial all year. Happy New Year! Let me know what content you want to see in 2026.NIO'S 2025 FULL STORYNIO started at $4.55, peaked at $7.89 in October, closed at $5.50 - up 26% for the year.Key moments: February Onvo L60 image sparked 10% jump. March capital raise tanked stock to $3.75, but $4B Hong Kong offering funded growth. April brought Shen Fei as new Onvo president. July-August surge: L60 pre-sales drove 40% gain, third-gen ES8 launch added another 23% spike. September $1B raise initially dropped 9% but rallied 30% as investors recognized growth funding. Stock peaked October 2 at $7.89. November declined 24% as China subsidies ended. December 30 brought 2026 subsidy news, stock closed year at $5.50.Bottom line: NIO executed three-brand strategy, launched Onvo and Firefly, improved margins, raised capital twice. Now faces proving profitability at scale.XPENG'S OVER-PROMISING PROBLEMHe Xiaopeng announced "orders exceeded expectations" five times in 2025 - only MONA M03 delivered. New P7 peaked at 8,104 September units then crashed to 2,882 by November despite 40 units/hour capacity. G7 got 10,000 orders in 9 minutes but sales fell to 2,500-3,500 units while Tesla Model Y averaged 38,000.Service failures: 7,000+ owners complained after $5,000 chip upgrades caused system crashes. XPeng promised nationwide CNGP in 2022 - still only 5 cities despite customers paying $39,000 extra. Trust matters when markets get tough.OPENAI TOO BIG TO FAIL?SoftBank invested $41 billion in OpenAI on December 26, now owns 11%. Microsoft owns 27%. OpenAI valued $300-500 billion, not yet profitable. Committed to $1.4 trillion infrastructure spending. SoftBank sold entire $5.8B Nvidia stake to fund this.The question: Has OpenAI become too big to fail? If it fails, SoftBank, Microsoft, Oracle all hurt. Data centers, Nvidia's growth, entire AI buildout slows. System has to keep OpenAI alive because letting it fail craters too much. That's "too big to fail" - saw it with banks in 2008.OpenAI burns billions, revenue growing but so are costs. If AI hype slows, they have problems. But investors can't let them fail now, will keep funding betting revenue catches up. Risk is real when you build this big, this fast on this much investment.CHIP WARS: $160M SMUGGLING BUSTDOJ unsealed Operation Gatekeeper December 8. October 2024-May 2025: Smugglers moved $160M+ in Nvidia H100/H200 GPUs to China. These chips power AI, same ones OpenAI uses. Export-controlled, can't legally sell to China.How: Fake companies, falsified documents, relabeled chips as "Sandkyan," routed through multiple warehouses. May 28 raid in New Jersey caught three trucks picking up chips. Smugglers used group chat - when police arrived, chat said "dissolve group, delete everyone." Too late.Three arrested, one pleaded guilty facing 10 years. Estimates show 10,000 to hundreds of thousands chips smuggled in 2024.Why China needs them: Building domestic chips but years behind. 60%+ of Chinese AI models still run on Nvidia. Chinese companies pay 2x-5x premium, smugglers risk prison to supply.Trump twist: Same day as bust, Trump posted US would allow H200 exports if government gets 25% cut - exact chips being smuggled. Defense attorneys asked how they're national security threats when President approves export.Reality: Export controls don't work when incentives this strong. Continues until China develops competitive chips (years away), US loosens controls (Trump willing), or AI demand crashes (not happening).

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

A round-up of the main headlines in Sweden on December 29th 2025. You can hear more reports on our homepage www.radiosweden.se, or in the app Sveriges Radio. Presenter and producer: Michael Walsh

Here are the 10 videos from 2025 that got the most views.For links to each video, please visit the blog post: https://FrankBuck.org/top-10-2025/ Chapters0:00 Intro0:30 The serendipity that happens when your notes are organized1:05 8 Gift Ideas for the Principal (and 1 no-no)1:35 Welcome to New Visitors!2:00 Link to a Specific Spot on a Page | It's Easy to Do2:20 How to Turn Handwriting into Text with Google Lens3:05 Memory Like an Elephant: How to Take Notes About the People in Your Life3:40 How to Export from Google Sheets to Google Calendar4:05 College Students How to Take Great Notes4:20 How I Convert Handwriting to Editable Text With ChatGPT4:45 How I Memorized 57 Pages of Notes in 1 Day5:15 Going forward...

Long-range marine heatwaves now able to be forecast with a new CSIRO and weather bureau model, an industry analyst says US tariffs were actually advantageous for Australian beef producers in 2025, and researchers and chefs tout the overlooked benefits of eating offal.

This week's Open Mic guest is Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council.  Prices and trade policy have challenged U.S. soybean exports, especially as large volumes of Brazilian soybeans have displaced traditional sales to China. Having met with Chinese industry and government officials, Sutter says the Chinese want a better trade relationship with the U.S. but he is also focused on market diversification. He believes the higher quality of U.S. soy and sustainable production practices should lead to a rebound in global sales. 

DM-Chef Christoph Werner ist durch seine Äußerungen zum Umgang mit der AfD ins Zentrum einer Debatte geraten. Er hatte das Recht von Wirtschaftsverbänden verteidigt, Abgeordnete aller Fraktionen einzuladen. Der folgende Proteststurm hat den erfahrenen Unternehmer verunsichert. Werner plädiert für eine sachliche Debattenkultur: „Wir müssen uns die Frage stellen, wie wir mit zunehmend polarisierten Diskussionen so umgehen können, dass wir am Ende uns nicht alle anschreien."Werner macht sich Sorgen, dass Deutschland immer weniger wettbewerbsfähig wird und zu stark vom Export abhängt. Er mahnt an, sich wieder auf die soziale Marktwirtschaft im Sinne Ludwig Erhards zu besinnen. Bürokratie und langsame Verwaltung gefährden das Vertrauen der Bürger in den Staat. Sein Appell: „Wir müssen unternehmerisch rangehen – in allen Bereichen unseres Landes."Hier geht es zur Anmeldung für den Space.TableTable Briefings - For better informed decisions.Sie entscheiden besser, weil Sie besser informiert sind – das ist das Ziel von Table.Briefings. Wir verschaffen Ihnen mit jedem Professional Briefing, mit jeder Analyse und mit jedem Hintergrundstück einen Informationsvorsprung, am besten sogar einen Wettbewerbsvorteil. Table.Briefings bietet „Deep Journalism“, wir verbinden den Qualitätsanspruch von Leitmedien mit der Tiefenschärfe von Fachinformationen. Professional Briefings kostenlos kennenlernen: table.media/testenHier geht es zu unseren WerbepartnernImpressum: https://table.media/impressumDatenschutz: https://table.media/datenschutzerklaerungBei Interesse an Audio-Werbung in diesem Podcast melden Sie sich gerne bei Laurence Donath: laurence.donath@table.media Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

TakeawaysCoffee forecasts are essentially opinions based on various data points.Mother nature plays a significant role in coffee production outcomes.Forecasts can vary widely and are often influenced by market sentiment.Understanding the factors behind forecasts is crucial for industry stakeholders.The coffee market is sensitive to changes in production estimates.Export trends from major coffee-producing countries impact global supply.Consumption patterns in countries like Brazil are changing significantly.Forecasts are not static and should be revisited regularly.Market prices are influenced by the balance of supply and demand.The coffee industry relies on a mix of scientific data and anecdotal evidence.  Part of The Covoya Coffee Podcasting Network TAKE OUR LISTENER SURVEY Visit and Explore Covoya!

Die Wirtschaft lahmt, der Standort kränkelt. Doch es gibt auch viele gute Nachrichten aus der Wirtschaft. Etwa für den deutschen Export und ein einst kriselndes Unternehmen.

Gefion is Denmark's first AI supercomputer, named after a goddess in Danish mythology. It is operated by the Danish Centre for AI Innovation (DCAI), a company established with funding from the Novo Nordisk Foundation, the world's wealthiest charitable foundation, as well as the Export and Investment Fund of Denmark. In a new pharmaphorum podcast, web editor Nicole Raleigh speaks with Tarek Samad, Lundbeck's senior vice president and head of research, for a conversation on AI – specifically, Lundbeck's agreement with the DCAI to run and operate Gefion – and accelerating drug discovery and development within the neurological and psychiatric field. You can listen to episode 236 of the pharmaphorum podcast in the player below, download the episode to your computer, or find it - and subscribe to the rest of the series – on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Overcast, Pocket Casts, Podbean, and pretty much wherever else you download your other podcasts from.

View this video at https://macmost.com/5-ways-to-export-a-video-frame-on-a-mac.html. If you need to take a frame from a video and save it as a stand-alone photo, you can do it in a variety of ways on a Mac. Learn how to use tools like the Photos app, QuickTime Player, Preview and even Pixelmator Pro to capture a frame from a video.

Episode 191: Guests:  Alexander Hamilton; John Adams; James Madison; Samuel Cooper; Benjamin Franklin; The General CongressApplied HistoryThe Workers that Keep America MovingHamilton's Defense of Congress Pt 3Life Liberty and PropertyCriminals and AccomplicesSelf-preservation and the Greater UnionChaos and Corruption as the Only OptionsWhy do the American People (2025) Support Corruption?The Example of the Congress 1774Congress 1774 vs Congress 2025British Parliament 1774 Approximates U.S. Congress 2024+Placing a Foot Forward___________________Support the show

First, we talk to The Indian Express' Anonna Dutt about the recent govt data that underlines the wide gap between demand and availability in the country's organ transplant system.Next, The Indian Express' Sukrita Baruah discusses the protests that have brought academic activities to a complete halt in one of Assam's central universities. (17:15)And in the end, we also talk about the crisis looming over Tamil Nadu's textile towns. (25:05)Hosted by Ichha SharmaWritten and produced by Shashank Bhargava and Ichha SharmaEdited and mixed by Suresh Pawar

On today's Final Bell, Mike Zuzolo of Global Commodity Analytics joins us to break down the latest market drivers across grains, livestock, and energy. Key topics include: Soy exports: What the latest headlines mean for demand. Corn market: Why prices remain stuck in a trench. Weather and cattle: How forecasts are influencing livestock trade. Crude oil: The impact energy markets are having on ag commodities. Cattle on Feed: A preview of expectations heading into the report. Zuzolo explains the crosscurrents shaping today's trade and the signals producers should keep an eye on as the week unfolds.

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Prof Martina Lawless, ESRI, discusses our economy, both now and in the short-term future

Plus: Walmart's new AI era. And Canada ramps up its military satellite communications capabilities. Danny Lewis hosts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Russian Gold Export Ban Could Squeeze Prices Even Higher Conditions in the gold market were already tight, but now Russia might be about to make them even tighter. There's a lot happening as we kick off another day of trading in the precious metals markets, and to find out the latest, click to watch this video now! - Get your free copy of Arcadia's Silver Report here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/p/arcadia-silver-report-an-overview - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Consultation is open on the regime that controls the export of military related goods and technology. 

Fareed Zakaria and his take on if America's founders would be stunned by the power of the modern presidency and if the Supreme Court has enabled such powers. Plus, Walter Isaacson, author of “The Greatest Sentence Ever Written”, joins to discuss the Declaration of Independence and ask what is the American dream.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

China's Property Crisis Deepens as State-Owned Giant Vanke Plunges; Export Model Creates International Friction — Fraser Howie — Howie documents the deepening property market crisis, evidenced by the financial collapse of state-owned developer Vanke. The central government avoids massive bailout commitments, converting acute sectoral problems into chronic structural drags that leave municipal and regional banks dangerously exposed. Howie notes that the government's current strategy—relying on massive export volumes—is generating significant international friction and pushback, as other nations fear being "swamped by cheap Chinese imports" and demand market access reciprocity. 1947 PEKING

Iran's Strategic Gains from the War in Ukraine — Jonathan Sayeh — Jonathan Sayeh states that Iran is celebrating Russia's advantageous position in Ukraine as a geopolitical win because it enabled Iran to export military weaponry and demonstrate combat capabilities internationally. Iran expects Russia to reciprocate this military assistance, potentially through air defense system modernization or advancement of Iran's nuclear program, despite profound mutual mistrust between the strategic partners. Iran benefits globally by selling weapons and leveraging instability to argue the U.S. has become an unreliable superpower. 1832 PERSIAN GIRL

This week on Sinica, I welcome back Finbarr Bermingham, the Brussels-based Europe correspondent for the South China Morning Post, about the Nexperia dispute — one of the most revealing episodes in the global contest over semiconductor supply chains. Nexperia, a Dutch-headquartered chipmaker owned by Shanghai-listed Wingtech, became the subject of extraordinary government intervention when the Netherlands invoked a Cold War-era emergency law to seize temporary control of the company and suspend its Chinese CEO. Finbarr's reporting, drawing on Dutch court documents and expert sources, has illuminated the tangled threads of this story: preexisting concerns about governance and technology transfer, mounting U.S. pressure on The Hague to remove Chinese management, and the timing of the Dutch action on the very day the U.S. rolled out its affiliate rule. We discuss China's retaliatory export controls on chips packaged at Nexperia's Dongguan facilities, the role of the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan in unlocking a temporary thaw, and what this case reveals about Europe's agonizing position between American pressure and Chinese integration in global production networks.4:34 – Why the "Europe cracks down on Chinese acquisition" framing was too simple 6:17 – The Dutch court's extraordinary tick-tock of events and U.S. lobbying 9:04 – The June pressure from Washington: divestment or the affiliate list 10:13 – Dutch fears of production know-how relocating to China 12:35 – The impossible position: damned if they did, damned if they didn't 14:46 – The obscure Cold War-era Goods Availability Act 17:11 – CEO Zhang Xuezheng and the question of who stopped cooperating first 19:26 – Was China's export control a state policy or a corporate move? 22:16 – Europe's de-risking framework and the lessons from Nexperia 25:39 – The fragmented European response: Germany, France, Hungary, and the Baltics 30:31 – Did Germany shape the response behind the scenes? 33:06 – The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan and the resolution of the crisis 37:01 – Will the Nexperia case deter future European interventions? 40:28 – Is Europe still an attractive market for Chinese investment? 41:59 – The Europe China Forum: unusually polite in a time of tenterhooksPaying it forward: Dewey Sim (SCMP diplomacy desk, Beijing); Coco Feng (SCMP technology, Guangdong); Khushboo Razdan (SCMP North America); Sense Hofstede (Chinese Bossen newsletter)Recommendations: Finbarr: Chokepoints by Edward Fishman; Underground Empire by Henry Farrell and Abe Newman; "What China Wants from Europe" by John Delury (Engelsberg Ideas) Kaiser: The Three Musketeers: D'Artagnan and Milady (2023 French film adaptation)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

China's Economic Slump: Export Decline, Policy Failures, and Property Market Stagnation Guests: Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang discussed the unprecedented slump in China's economic activity, noting cooled investment and slowing industrial output, with exports falling 25% to the US, attributing this long-term decline to the government's 2008 decision to pull back economic reforms and the current 15th Five-Year Plan lacking viable solutions or bailouts for hurting localities, while consumption remains dangerously low (around 38% of GDP) and is expected to shrink further as the government prioritizes technological development and factory production, with the property market collapsing as capital investment, land sales, and unit prices decline, forcing people to hold onto decaying apartments and risking stagnation for decades similar to Japan post-1989, a problem largely self-created due to overcapacity, although other countries like Brazil are also restricting Chinese imports.