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Wall Street's cheering—but the economy is quietly unraveling. Consumer spending is falling, job losses are rising, and the only thing holding this market together is the Fed's next move. What happens when debt demand collapses, and we're forced to buy our own junk? Gold is up 27.8% YTD for a reason.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310
The Automotive Troublemaker w/ Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier
Shoot us a Text.Episode #1085: Today we're diving into a high-stakes Senate budget bill that could end EV credits early, Hyundai's record-breaking U.S. sales run, and Cloudflare's bold move to make AI bots pay to crawl. Show Notes with links:The Senate passed a budget bill by a razor-thin 51-50 vote, with VP JD Vance breaking the tie. The bill, which moves to the House next, packs major implications for automakers and dealers alike.As we covered yesterday, the current version would kill EV tax credits by Sept. 30, 2025.CAFE penalties for fuel economy non-compliance would be eliminated, gutting enforcement.Car loan interest (up to $10,000/year) could be deducted for certain U.S.-built vehicle purchases from 2025-2028.An earlier AI regulation ban, which might've restricted state autonomous vehicle laws, was cut from the final bill.Electrification Coalition: Ending EV credits “would cede control over the future of transportation to China.”Hyundai just posted its best-ever U.S. sales performance in the first half of 2025, powered by strong EV momentum and a major new plant in Georgia. The automaker says this is only the beginning.Hyundai sold 439,280 vehicles in H1 2025, a 10% YoY increase—the most since its 1986 U.S. debut.Q2 and June also set new records with 235K+ (+10%) and 70K (+3%) vehicles sold, respectively.The IONIQ 5 remains a top EV performer with 19,092 units sold YTD; IONIQ 9 logged 1,013 units since May.The new Metaplant in Georgia can build 300K vehicles/year—expandable to 500K—with both IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 9 rolling off the line.With leases as low as $179/month and free home chargers on offer, Hyundai is “building momentum with every mile,” said North America CEO Randy Parker.Cloudflare is positioning to be the premier AI gatekeeper by blocking AI bots by default for new websites and launching a paywall-style marketplace for AI crawlers.New sites on Cloudflare will automatically block AI bots unless given explicit permission.Their new “Pay per Crawl” lets publishers charge bots for different kinds of data use.Condé Nast, TIME, and The Atlantic are on board after seeing steep traffic drops from AI-generated answers.OpenAI bots reportedly scrape 1,700 times per referral, while Anthropic scrapes 73,000 to one. Google is only 14 per referral“This could split the internet,” one analyst said, noting the potential divide between premium and freely scraped content.Join Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/
Listen to the end for a clear trade with 3 things that need to happen. GET THE TRENDSPIDER SALE HERE BEFORE IT ENDSENTER TO WIN A FREE YEAR OF TRENDSPIDER BY SIGNING UP FOR THE NEWSLETTER Here are the links to all the sales: Seeking Alpha Premium: with a 7-day free trial—save $60SAVE ON TRENDSPIDER - GET THE ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION TO GET MY 4 HOUR ALGORITHM
Listen to the end for a ⭐ GOLD STAR ⭐ Stock PickENTER TO WIN A FREE YEAR OF TRENDSPIDER BY SIGNING UP FOR THE NEWSLETTER Here are the links to all the sales: Seeking Alpha Premium: with a 7-day free trial—save $60SAVE ON TRENDSPIDER - GET THE ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION TO GET MY 4 HOUR ALGORITHM
Looking at the latest outlook for the agri markets and where the risks lie ahead of upcoming formative USDA acreage and stocks reports. As we turn to 2H25, and formative stages of the northern hemisphere growing season and South American export window, most agricultural markets under coverage are trading at price levels below producer gross margins, with arguably negative risk premium across grain, sugar and cotton markets. The BCOM Agri Index down -4% YTD. Our June 2025 Fundamental Outlook continues to highlight that supply-side increases are being absorbed by demand, perpetuating the multi-year decline in global agri commodity availability through 2025/26. Speaker Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Strategy This podcast was recorded on June 27, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5008151-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
How to Trade Stocks and Options Podcast by 10minutestocktrader.com
Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.What happens when a professional trader goes from 100% in cash to fully invested in one single session? This is the kind of day where everything lines up — the market, the sectors, the signals — and you're invited to watch the entire strategy unfold in real time.In this session, you'll see a complete top-to-bottom execution of seven high-conviction trades using a data-driven approach powered by OVTLYR Nine, a behavioral analytics platform built for serious traders who want to save time, make money, and win with less risk.This isn't theory — this is live decision-making in action.You'll learn how to:➡️ Use AI-powered stock signals to find the strongest setups➡️ Evaluate market breadth and sector momentum to confirm trends➡️ Read fear & greed data to measure sentiment shifts➡️ Apply risk-based position sizing to protect your account➡️ Avoid emotional trading with clear, rules-based entries and exitsEvery trade shared in this video comes with full reasoning, real execution, and an exact checklist. You'll see how to scan hundreds of stocks in minutes, narrow them down using the screener, and apply the Golden Ticket Trading Strategy — built to identify outlier opportunities with precision.Here's what else is packed in:✅ How to recognize a true bullish trend using the 10/20/50 EMA alignment✅ How to avoid getting faked out by order blocks and earnings gaps✅ Why the OVTLYR Nine heat map gives traders a psychological edge✅ When to enter, when to exit, and how to roll trades defensivelyAlso included: insights from a vibrant trading community that's crushing real results — traders landing consistent wins, some up over 30–40% YTD, simply by following the exact same strategy.This isn't just educational — it's empowering. Whether you're a seasoned trader or brand new, you'll walk away knowing how a pro reads the market, makes confident decisions, and manages risk without hesitation.Tired of guessing, stressing, and reacting too late? Then this is your wake-up call.This video is fast-paced, full of powerful tools, and totally transparent. No fluff. No nonsense. Just straight-up strategy, executed with clarity and discipline!Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today
Markets continue to defy expectations, and even war headlines, as the S&P 500 flirts with all-time highs and commodity prices climb. In this interview, Joel Elconin, Co-Host of the PreMarket Prep Show and Co-Founder of the Stock Trader Network, returns to share his insights into what's driving this resilient "Goldilocks" market. Key topics discussed include: Why Joel calls this a “crazy” market: S&P rallies despite US missile strikes, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic data. The Fed's indecision and macro ‘nothing-burger': Markets appear unbothered by mild inflation, slightly higher unemployment, and a divided Fed. Commodity breakout: Copper above $5, surging platinum, silver, and industrial metals hint at underlying growth and demand strength. US Dollar weakness: Down over 10% YTD, fueling both equity and commodity rallies while helping exports. Upcoming catalysts - or threats?: China, Iran, and Middle East escalation loom as the main wildcard risks. Joel's technical take: What the S&P cash index is telling him heading into quarter-end and what levels matter most now. Click here to visit Joel's PreMarket Prep website. Click here to visit the Stock Trader Network.
ENTER TO WIN A FREE YEAR OF TRENDSPIDER BY SIGNING UP FOR THE NEWSLETTER Here are the links to all the sales: Seeking Alpha Premium: with a 7-day free trial—save $60SAVE ON TRENDSPIDER - GET THE ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION TO GET MY 4 HOUR ALGORITHM
In this episode of the Ben & Bergs Podcast, we're officially calling it: this bull market is nothing like the last one.Altcoins are getting crushed against Bitcoin, with most down 30–50% while BTC continues to dominate. Ben and Bergs unpack:Key Takeaways- Altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin by 40% YTD—most retail investors are still down bad- Old strategies from 2017 or 2021 won't work this cycle due to poor tokenomics and low retail demand- Bitcoin is behaving like a flight-to-safety asset, showing surprising strength during global conflict- You must actively manage your portfolio—cut underperformers and double down on conviction playsGood investors react to the market's behaviour, not the headlines.#marketupdate #crypto #altcoins
In this KE Report daily editorial, I'm joined by Darrell Fletcher, Managing Director of Commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets, who provides a trading desk perspective on the latest price action, positioning, and macro signals across the energy, copper, and precious metals markets. - Energy volatility dominates June - from geopolitical spikes to bearish fundamentals. - Copper holds firm above $4 with physical market dislocations and tariff pricing. - Gold consolidates near record highs as silver plays catch-up. Key Discussion Highlights: Energy Markets: Oil spiked on Middle East tensions but quickly reversed on news of a ceasefire. Darrell highlights that despite short-term risk premiums, the WTI forward curve remains anchored around $62, reflecting ongoing bearish fundamentals like rising global inventories and weakening demand. US rig counts are at multi-year lows, but no supply shock is expected yet. Natural Gas: A short-lived surge on heatwave-driven demand brought prices above $4, but markets have now converged back toward $3.50. Darrell notes a balanced setup, supported by increasing LNG flows and long-term support from Calendar 2026 pricing around $4.40. Copper: The metal continues to trade strongly just below $5/lb. Physical flows into COMEX are pushing spreads higher, with LME inventories falling and tariff expectations leading to a 10-15% price premium. Large copper miners like Freeport and BHP are rebounding, but still lag copper's year-to-date performance. Precious Metals: Gold is flat for the month but remains near record highs, while silver is up 7% in June and closing the performance gap. Darrell maintains a bullish view on gold due to debt concerns, a weakening USD, and potential Fed rate cuts. Silver, while less of a pure monetary asset, shows strong industrial demand and momentum. US Dollar & Macro Impact: A falling USD (down ~10% YTD) is generally supportive of commodities, but Darrell points out the correlation is looser than in the past. He sees continued pressure on the greenback from fiscal concerns and rate cut expectations.
This week on Amtower Off Center, Kevin Plexico, SVP of Deltek, joins host Mark Amtower for a deep discussion on the current state of government contracting.Topics include:YTD contract activity vs FY 24, and how it has impacted spendingThe impact on SIs, VARs, small contractors and othersRegulatory changes and the future of GWACsThe new Deltek Clarity study (available free) which deals with many aspects on BD, capture and biddingWhat the "big beautiful budget bill" could mean to contractingSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we're joined by Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TFMetalsReport.com, for a timely and wide-ranging discussion on the intersection of geopolitics, precious metals, the US dollar, and mining equities. We kick things off with the surprising market reaction to US missile strikes in Iran - including the sharp reversal in oil prices and the perception that escalation may be de-escalating. Craig explains why weekend geopolitical events often produce less market volatility by the time trading resumes, and how this specific event might mirror the short-lived Israel-Iran tensions from late 2024. We then shift focus to the precious metals markets, where: The US Dollar Index hovering at 98 is acting as a pivotal level. A breakdown toward 96 could serve as a tailwind for both gold and silver, with gold already consolidating around $3,400. Craig sees signs of a summer rally for precious metals, especially if the dollar weakens further. Silver backwardation and contract rollovers are creating short-term volatility, particularly with July contracts nearing expiration. A strong monthly and quarterly close for silver could set the stage for a technical breakout. On the mining equities side: Craig notes Newmont (NEM) is up ~50% YTD but still lagging more efficient operators. He expects a positive Q2 earnings season for miners, driven by significantly higher average gold and silver prices. However, not all equities will benefit equally. Craig emphasizes focusing on companies with low all-in sustaining costs, wide margins, and disciplined cost controls. He also sees last week's weakness in GDX as potentially related to NYSE options expiration and short-term oil price fears—not a broader trend reversal. We also preview Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony and the mixed signals from the FOMC dot plot, as well as the uncertainty created by potential tariff reinstatements under Trump. Follow Craig's work at TFMetalsReport.com
In this powerhouse episode, top eXp agents Ed Laine and Gay-Lynn pull back the curtain on how they've built high-performing teams and revenue share organizations—without sacrificing personal connection or authenticity.
UK PROPERTY MARKET WEEKLY UPDATE Welcome to the 23rd UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your go to weekly ‘TV show' on the UK Property Market on YouTube This week, I'm joined by Steph Walker-Vass, boss lady of TAUK as we delve into the key property market headlines for 23rd week of 2025 ending on the 15th June 2025. The YouTube Show https://youtu.be/0M9NCYaPww0 ✅ Listings (New Properties on the Market) 37.6k new listings this week (last week 39.3k) YTD 5% higher than Week 23 of 2024 YTD and 8% higher YTD compared to 2017/18/19. ✅ Price Reductions (% of Resi Stock) 27.4k Price Reductions this week (last week 27.9k) Monthly Run Rate in reductions - 1 in 7.1 of Resi Sales stock per month is being reduced (which represents 14%)) …13.4% the month before For comparison, 12.1% average in 2024, though the long-term 5-year average is 10.6%. ✅ Total Gross Sales (Agreed Sales) 28.1k UK homes sold STC this week (last week 28.6k) YTD - The number of Sold STC Resi homes are 8% higher compared to 2024 (608k Sales agreed YTD 2025 vs 562k YTD 2024) and 16% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels (524k). ✅ Sell-Through Rate (Monthly in Arrears) May's sale run rate of 16.1% of Resi stock sold stc (ie 16.1% of Estate Agents properties on the market went sale agreed). 15.36% last month 2024 monthly average: 15.3%. Long term 8 yr average: 17.9%. ✅ Sale Fall-Throughs 6,421 Sale fall-thrus last week from Resi Sale Sales Pipeline of 479k UK homes sale agreed (sold stc). Another method is that week's sale fall thrus as a % of gross sales that week. This week, that is 22.8% (last week 23.5%). That is below the 7-year average of 24.2%, and well below the 40%+ levels post-Truss Budget (Autumn 2022). May's figure 5.84% of sales in the UK agents pipelines fell thru. For comparison, April '25 - 5.51%. 2024 average: 5.36%. ✅ Net Sales (Gross sales for the week less Sale Fall Thrus for the week) 21.7k net sales this week (21.9k last week), compared 2025 weekly average of 20k. 2025 YTD is 6% higher than compared to 2024 YTD and 11.4% higher than YTD 2017/18/19. ✅ Lettings Stats Local Focus this week Southport Graphs Available for use in free valuations / internally. Please dont publish these on social media without my OK. Reason - my fee paying clients use them - so its not fair on them https://we.tl/t-Wwr5CXYQwN
Lou Blasi and Schuyler Domboske take a different approach by analyzing hitters' performance over the last three weeks, rather than sticking to YTD stats. Players featured in this episode include Ronald Acuna Jr., Cal Raleigh, Junior Caminero, Lawrence Butler, Maikel Garcia, Addison Barger, Vinny Pasquantino, and Brent Rooker.
Why would you NOT do the FREE 7 day trial to Seeking Alpha? Here are the links to all the sales: Seeking Alpha Premium: with a 7-day free trial—save $60SAVE ON TRENDSPIDER - GET THE ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION TO GET MY 4 HOUR ALGORITHM
Will Doctor gives you the sharpest picks for the action at TPC River Highlands -Discussing top 4 names on odds board -2 matchups -1 t10 -3 outrights (+325, 40/1, 110/1) -Sleeper, FRP -Scoring, Best bet For the latest on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59 The 2025 Travelers Championship podcast by Will Doctor offers a comprehensive breakdown of the final PGA Tour signature event of the season and a dramatic recap of the U.S. Open at Oakmont. JJ Spahn's emotional and improbable victory—highlighted by a bogey-free 66 in Round 1 and a comeback from five-over through six holes on Sunday—dominates the opening analysis. Spahn's perseverance, bolstered by past experiences like his playoff loss to Rory at Sawgrass and personal life moments, creates one of golf's most compelling storylines this year. Sam Burns, despite leading after 36 holes, faltered on Sunday with a back-nine 5-over but gained praise for his accountability in addressing a controversial rules decision on the 15th hole. Victor Hovland impressed with another top-10 major finish, while Tyrell Hatton and Cam Young finished tied for fourth, each undone by late bogeys. Carlos Ortiz's top-4 finish secured him future major spots and significant earnings. Scottie Scheffler posted a T-7 finish with elite iron play but struggled with driving accuracy. Brooks Koepka showed flashes of his major-winning form with a T-12 finish. Bryson DeChambeau and Keegan Bradley both disappointed due to poor putting and iron play, respectively. Collin Morikawa dazzled tee-to-green but suffered a shocking putting regression. Betting-wise, Will Doctor's card went down 2 units for the week, bringing his YTD loss to 70.7 units. Matchup wins included Rahm over McIlroy and Matsuyama as top Japanese, while Åberg missed the cut as the top Nordic. For the Travelers Championship, Doctor critiques the 72-man no-cut format, urging a return to 120-player fields with cuts and innovations like a shot clock. Course characteristics at TPC River Highlands favor accurate drivers and elite wedge players. Scottie Scheffler headlines as a strong pick at +325 with no statistical weaknesses. Rory McIlroy is passed on due to poor wedge play and fatigue. Morikawa is deemed overpriced despite his iron strength. Schauffele is dismissed for weak wedge approach stats. Matchups include Akshay Bhatia over Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka over Patrick Cantlay, based on wedge stats and recent form. Russell Henley is endorsed as a top-10 pick and outright bet due to his improved putting and elite iron play. Additional outrights include Bud Cauley at 110-1 for his course fit and Scottie Scheffler as the favorite. First-round bet goes to Sam Burns to start strong. Fantasy lineups are provided for both DraftKings and PGATOUR.com formats, featuring Straka, Henley, McIntyre, Spieth, Bhatia, and Cauley. The scoring prediction is -20 under par, with the best bet being Henley top 10 at +275. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Ryan and Mark discuss results from May, with a quick note on the strong March and April numbers that we didn't get to talk about due to Ryan's many travels when we'd normally record an Around the Workstand episode.We mention this recent episode with our Key Accounts Advisor, David Martinez, and the Digital Advisor Service he's offering Workstand clientsNBDA Summit recapA good number of supplier attendeesSolid presentationsDon't know about the May date, stores are busy, but the meeting is valuableFinally get Bentonville, so much going on thereNBDA Summits are great, try to make a 2026 eventMay resultsOnline sales in May were +17.5%, with order volume +21.5%. Promising sign for the health of the market and online sales at bike shopsBike sales did, however, decline in dollars and units, with electric, road, mountain, and BMX showing growth but offset by declines in other categories. I'm still speculating that the early peak of bicycle sales in March and April was driven in large part by consumers attempting to beat tariffs, but new product releases and popularity in the growth categories are also contributors. Overall platform growth is coming across the board from parts, accessories, and apparel. Those are good indicators that people are riding bikes and engaging with cycling. On the whole, the results are outperforming my expectationsThat being said, I don't hear a lot of positives about YTD results when I talk with clientsOnline sales are a bright spot, but in many parts of the country, foot traffic and total sales are downU.S. Bicycle Production and Assembly ActLegislation introduced in Congress this week would eliminate tariffs on components used to assemble complete bikes in the U.S.Goal is to create hubs as a step toward frame manufacturingChris Cocalis founded Pivot Cycles and Charlie Cooper with PFB at BLCCelebrating Pride Month and we'll be close for Juneteenth, but will have an on-call team for support. So, response times may be a bit slower than normal, but still reach out if you need help.Be sure to email your questions to podcast@workstand.com. We read all emails sent and we look forward to hearing from you.If you're a Workstand client with questions about your subscription, email support@workstand.com or call 303-527-0676 x 1. If you are not currently a Workstand client with questions about how our programs work, email info@workstand.com.Find Us on LinkedInRyan Atkinson, President + Co-OwnerSuzie Livingston, Marketing + CommunicationsMark Still, Business DevelopmentWe also publish Around the Workstand on our YouTube channel if you'd like to watch while you listen. Here is our Around the Workstand playlist.If you have any questions about the topics discussed in this episode of Around the Workstand or if you have ideas for new topics we can cover, schedule a time to meet with Mark Still here or email mark.s@works...
【節目】2025年美元兌台幣匯率在上半年一度來到29.1598元。整體YTD跌幅來到8.79% (6/9觀察日)。對很多投資人投資美元資產來說，匯率的影響挺大，這次來觀察匯率的歷史波動回測，看看會不會嚇死人。 大綱 1.前言 2.美元匯率波動概況 3.USD/TWD十年回測 4.單日波動常態分析 5.劇烈波動成因探討 6.賣出美元資產決策 7.後悔賣出處理建議 8.匯率風險評估方法 9.00646匯率避險觀察 10.美元與台股關係分析 關鍵字 #美元匯率 #台幣升值 #00646 #匯率波動 #投資決策 #資產配置 #台股 #避險策略 #波動性分析 #市場情緒 第558集，2025/06/12錄製 #AwesomeMoney #威利研究室 用研究改變你的財商視野 節目連結： YouTube 搜尋: 威利財經角 Podcast 搜尋: Awesome_Money 收看頻道會員節目: https://cutt.ly/HeRTJFB2 加入頻道會員: https://cutt.ly/zwTJf5e0 訂閱方格子 (文稿、程式範例): https://vocus.cc/willy03/home 威利投資生活事 Line 社群: https://forms.gle/CabjyDhux35utmyU9 免費電子報訂閱: https://cutt.ly/lwOV4s2Q 使用電子報原因: https://cutt.ly/kwOV4U8H 收聽|看文章|互動社群|目錄: https://cutt.ly/AwesomeMoney -- Hosting provided by SoundOn
In this investing masterclass, expert stock picker Richard Crow (alias Cockney Rebel) walks me through his view of the markets and latest thoughts on 14 stock ideas, including: 01:00 Equity outlook 05:50 Portfolio held in cash & YTD returns 07:15 Filtronic 14:40 Kier 19:25 Watkin Jones 23:30 Liontrust Asset management 26:45 Earnz 29:20 Future 33:35 Carclo 39:05 Creightons 44:00 Warpaint 46:45 How does Rich create his stock watchlist & whether he uses Level 2 share prices 50:00 Wood Group 51:35 Capita 55:15 theWorks 65:30 Staffline 67:55 Favourite stock idea for the next 12 months. Churchill China
UK PROPERTY MARKET WEEKLY UPDATE Welcome to the 22nd UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your go to weekly ‘TV show' on the UK Property Market on YouTube This week, I'm joined by Rob Smith, boss man of Hunters, Whitegates & Northwoods as we delve into the key property market headlines for 22nd week of 2025 ending on the 8th June 2025. The YouTube Show https://youtu.be/e6wchVvd5AU ✅ Listings (New Properties on the Market) 39.3k new listings this week (last week 31.9k - which was a Bank Holiday) YTD 6% higher than Week 22 of 2024 YTD and 8% higher YTD compared to 2017/18/19. ✅ Price Reductions (% of Resi Stock) 27.9k Price Reductions this week (last week 21.9k - again Bank Holiday the week before) Monthly Run Rate in reductions - 1 in 7.1 of Resi Sales stock per month is being reduced (which represents 14%) …13.4% the month before For comparison, 12.1% average in 2024, though the long-term 5-year average is 10.6%. ✅ Total Gross Sales (Agreed Sales) 28.6k UK homes sold STC this week (last week 25k) YTD - The number of Sold STC Resi homes are 8% higher compared to 2024 (581k Sales agreed YTD 2025 vs 535k YTD 2024) and 16% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels (499k). ✅ Sell-Through Rate (Monthly in Arrears) May's sale run rate of 16.08 of Resi stock sold stc (ie 16.08% of Estate Agents properties on the market went sale agreed). 15.36% last month 2024 monthly average: 15.3%. Long term 8 yr average: 17.9%. ✅ Sale Fall-Throughs 6,713 Sale fall-thrus last week from Resi Sale Sales Pipeline of 479k UK homes sale agreed (sold stc). Another method is that week's sale fall thrus as a % of gross sales that week. This week, that is 23.5% (last week 21.7%). That is below the 7-year average of 24.2%, and well below the 40%+ levels post-Truss Budget (Autumn 2022). May's figure 5.84% of sales in the UK agents pipelines fell thru. For comparison, April '25 - 5.51%. 2024 average: 5.36%. ✅ Net Sales (Gross sales for the week less Sale Fall Thrus for the week) 21.9k net sales this week (19.6k last week), compared 2025 weekly average of 20k. 2025 YTD is 6% higher than compared to 2024 YTD and 11.2% higher than YTD 2017/18/19. Local Focus this week Stockport Graphs Available for use in free valuations / internally. Please dont publish these on social media without my OK. Reason - my fee paying clients use them - so its not fair on them https://we.tl/t-xM8meJ1nSN
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 ADM Rug Pull3:17 Kim Reynolds and Eminent Domain4:39 US Weather5:53 USDA Preview8:46 Record Ethanol Production10:00 Weaker Dollar?11:30 US/China
US President Trump said at a certain point, they will send letters out for countries to take or leave and will send those letters out in a week and a half.Geopolitics is driving newsflow as Iran was judged to have violated IAEA rules. An update which has sparked increasingly escalatory rhetoric.Given the above, equities are in the red with the DXY pressured and havens leading FX while EUR/USD hits a new YTD peak and XAU climbs.Crude pressured despite the above, given the gains seen on Tuesday, Trump's tariff rhetoric, ongoing OPEC+ action and the lack of specificity on what the Iranian response will be.EGBs benefiting from the risk tone, Gilts outperform after soft GDP. USTs in-fitting but with magnitudes more contained into data.Air India flight AI171 to the UK from Ahmedabad, India crashed outside the airport after takeoff. Craft was a Boeing (BA) 787-8 Dreamliner; Boeing lower by as much as 8% in pre-market trade.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI, ECB's de Guindos & Elderson, Supply from the US, Earnings from Adobe & Carnival.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Ken Medlock, Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics and Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute. Ken joined the Rice University faculty in 2004 and holds adjunct professor appointments in the Department of Economics and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, in addition to serving as director of the Master of Energy Economics program. He is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, and a sought-after voice on Capitol Hill, at OPEC, and in the media. The Baker Institute plays a key role in shaping energy policy debates in both the U.S. and globally and we were thrilled to welcome Ken to hear his latest insights on today's evolving energy landscape. In our discussion, we explore oil market dynamics and pricing, Middle East geopolitical complexity, Kuwait's production expansion plans, U.S. policy, including how recent grant eliminations impact the economics of carbon capture projects, as well as the importance of distinguishing short-term volatility from long-term energy strategy. We review the current state of carbon capture technology, with high costs remaining a significant barrier, the potential long-term opportunity to convert captured CO2 into valuable products, the potential impact of rolling back EPA emission rules on future generation mix, and how strong electricity demand growth will require all types of generation to meet future needs. Ken shares his perspective on the importance and challenges of coordination across U.S. energy agencies, the critical importance of supply chain resilience, how geopolitical risk premiums shape oil markets, and potential market impact if Iran advances its nuclear capabilities. We cover potential disruptions to energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the roles of the U.S. and Israel in Middle East tensions, OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production, low global inventories, and the Baker Institute's growth and expansion across ten programs. We also touch on the interconnectedness of energy and other sectors, the need to re-educate on supply chain dynamics, the intersection of energy infrastructure and disaster preparedness, evolving student interest in energy at Rice, and much more. It was a fantastic and wide-ranging conversation spanning many critical aspects of energy today. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that the S&P 500 has rallied back to within 2% of its all-time high, while the S&P 500 Volatility (VIX) is hovering near YTD lows, which is a dangerous combination. U.S. equity markets appear to be largely driven by the ups/downs of Trump's “Big Beautiful Budget Bill” and tariff negotiations. On the bond side, the U.S. 10-year bond yield (4.45%) has traded sideways so far this week, but that could shift quickly given that several key economic reports are on deck this week, which also could go a long way in determining what the FED does at their June 18th FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI price has recently surged to ~$65/bbl which has caught oil traders by surprise. The front-end of the WTI curve is trading in backwardation, while the back end of the curve is in contango, mostly due to a substantial global S/D surplus that's expected beginning in Q4'25. Last week, OPEC+ agreed to raise July production by ~0.4mmbpd (total 3mo production increase of ~1.2mmbpd), but these “stated” production increases are much higher than “actual” barrels that have entered the market, which is beginning to raise questions around OPEC's “real” spare production capacity. He further noted that Canadian wildfires, Iran nuclear deal delays, and the plunge in U.S. oil rig count (~40 rigs) over the last two months have all combined to move WTI price higher. He ended by highlighting that the EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report this week, which forecasted that U.S. cru
U.S. and Chinese trade officials holding talks in London this morning: Sara Eisen, Carl Quintanilla, and David Faber got the latest from Washington and talked broader implications with longtime market vet Ed Yardeni, who remains bullish on equities here. Plus: Is the IPO market finally thawing? Hear from one expert about the key entrants to watch here, what's next in the pipeline, and whether the gains can continue overall. Also in focus: Apple shares on one of their worst YTD runs into their annual WWDC conference. Find out why – and what to watch out for – with one analyst who says their AI strategy is NOT the biggest risk to shares here… Also: key details behind a report that Meta could invest more than $10B into startup Scale AI. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
UK PROPERTY MARKET WEEKLY UPDATE Welcome to the 21st UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your go to weekly ‘TV show' on the UK Property Market on YouTube This week, I'm joined by Toby Martin, as we delve into the key property market headlines for 21st week of 2025 ending on the 1st June 2025. Don't forget that all numbers are down from the previous week's as it late May Bank Holiday The YouTube Show https://youtu.be/X1BCZ8Nh4XA ✅ Listings (New Properties on the Market) 31.9k new listings this week (last week 41.3k) YTD 5% higher than Week 21 of 2024 YTD and 9% higher YTD compared to 2017/18/19. ✅ Price Reductions (% of Resi Stock) 21.5k Price Reductions this week (last week 27.2k) Monthly Run Rate in reductions - 1 in 7.5 of Resi Sales stock per month is being reduced (which represents 13.4%). For comparison, 12.1% average in 2024, though the long-term 5-year average is 10.6%. ✅ Total Gross Sales (Agreed Sales) 25k UK homes sold STC this week (last week 28.9k) YTD - The number of Sold STC Resi homes are 8% higher compared to 2024 (551k Sales agreed YTD 2025 vs 511k YTD 2024) and 16% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels (399k). ✅ Sell-Through Rate (Monthly in Arrears) April's sale run rate of 15.36% of Resi stock sold stc (ie 15.36% of Estate Agents properties on the market went sale agreed). May's figures not out yet - so will be next week March's was 16.3%. 2024 monthly average: 15.3%. Long-term 8-year average: 17.9%. ✅ Sale Fall-Throughs 5,441 Sale fall-thrus last week from Resi Sale Sales Pipeline of 453k UK homes sale agreed (sold stc). Another method is that week's sale fall thrus as a % of gross sales that week. This week, that is 21.7% (last week 22.9%). That is below the 7-year average of 24.2%, and well below the 40%+ levels post-Truss Budget (Autumn 2022). May's figure not out yet - April, as a whole, 5.51% of sales in the UK agents pipelines fell thru. For comparison, 2024 average: 5.36%. ✅ Net Sales (Gross sales for the week less Sale Fall Thrus for the week) 19.6k net sales this week (22.2k last week), compared 2025 weekly average of 20k. 2025 YTD is 5% higher than compared to 2024 YTD and 11.2% higher than YTD 2017/18/19. Local Focus this week Plymouth Graphs Available for use in free valuations / internally. Please dont publish these on social media without my OK. Reason - my fee paying clients use them - so its not fair on them https://we.tl/t-tz9cFoINVJ
In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market's surface.Key TakeawaysMarkets Continue to Surprise on the Upside After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.Tariff Drama ContinuesA court ruling struck down President Trump's sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that's bolstered many investors.Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.No Sign of a Recession With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven't caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit. Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Rain on the Radar2:58 Monday Selloff4:38 Crop Progress & Conditions11:11 Weaker US Dollar?13:02 Crude Rally14:21 Grain Shipments
UK PROPERTY MARKET WEEKLY UPDATE Welcome to the 20th UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your go to weekly ‘TV show' on the UK Property Market on YouTube This week, I'm joined by Iain McKenzie, as we delve into the key property market headlines for 20th week of 2025 ending on the 25th May 2025. The YouTube Show https://youtu.be/lDlSupQsKdk ✅ Listings (New Properties on the Market) 41.3k new listings this week (last week 40.6k) YTD 6% higher than Week 20 of 2024 YTD and 9% higher YTD compared to 2017/18/19. ✅ Price Reductions (% of Resi Stock) 27.2k Price Reductions this week - Monthly Run Rate in reductions - 1 in 7.5 of Resi Sales stock per month is being reduced (which represents 13.4%). For comparison, 12.1% average in 2024, though the long-term 5-year average is 10.6%. ✅ Total Gross Sales (Agreed Sales) 28.9k UK homes sold STC this week (last week 28.8k) YTD - The number of Sold STC Resi homes are 9% higher compared to 2024 (527k Sales agreed YTD 2025 vs 484k YTD 2024) and 17% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels (399k). ✅ Sell-Through Rate (Monthly in Arrears) April's sale run rate of 15.36% of Resi stock sold stc (ie 15.36% of Estate Agents properties on the market went sale agreed). March's was 16.3%. 2024 monthly average: 15.3%. Long-term 8-year average: 17.9%. ✅ Sale Fall-Throughs 6,618 Sale fall-thrus last week from Resi Sale Sales Pipeline of 453k UK homes sale agreed (sold stc). Another method is that week's sale fall thrus as a % of gross sales that week. This week, that is 22.9% (last week 22.7%). That is below the 7-year average of 24.2%, and well below the 40%+ levels post-Truss Budget (Autumn 2022). In April, as a whole, 5.51% of sales in the UK agents pipelines fell thru. For comparison, 2024 average: 5.36%. ✅ Net Sales (Gross sales for the week less Sale Fall Thrus for the week) 22.2k net sales this week (22.2k last week), compared 2025 weekly average of 20k. 2025 YTD is 6% higher than compared to 2024 YTD and 11.5% higher than YTD 2017/18/19. Local Focus this week Canterbury Graphs Available for use in free valuations / internally. Please dont publish these on social media without my OK. Reason - my fee paying clients use them - so its not fair on them https://we.tl/t-nCHRQepW3h
In this episode of Talk Money To Me, Candice and Felicity sit down with acclaimed historian, author, broadcaster, and the brilliant mind behind the new book Gold - Professor Alan Ereira. In his latest work, 'Gold: How it Shaped History', which Candice and Felicity discuss in this episode, Alan explores the powerful and often surprising role this precious metal has played in the rise and fall of empires, economies, and belief systems.In this episode you will hear the deeper meaning of gold- not just as a financial asset, but as a force that continues to influence human behaviour and markets today. As of mid-May 2025, gold is trading around $3,234 USD per ounce, and some market participants are predicting a 15-20% uplift by the end of 2025 calendar year. That's despite the rally of 26% roughly so far YTD. Will the 2025 gold rush continue? Tune into this episode to find out more. Follow Talk Money To Me on Instagram, or send Candice and Felicity an email with all your thoughts here. Felicity Thomas and Candice Bourke are Senior Advisers at Shaw and Partners, and you can find out more here. *****In the spirit of reconciliation, Equity Mates Media and the hosts of Talk Money To Me acknowledge the Traditional Custodians of country throughout Australia and their connections to land, sea and community. We pay our respects to their elders past and present and extend that respect to all Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people today. *****Talk Money To Me is a product of Equity Mates Media. This podcast is intended for education and entertainment purposes. Any advice is general advice only, and has not taken into account your personal financial circumstances, needs or objectives. Before acting on general advice, you should consider if it is relevant to your needs and read the relevant Product Disclosure Statement. And if you are unsure, please speak to a financial professional. Equity Mates Media operates under Australian Financial Services Licence 540697.Talk Money To Me is part of the Acast Creator Network. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
If you had enough crypto you could have bought dinner with the President.FEATURING:Victoria Jones (https://twitter.com/satoshis_page)Thomas Hunt (https://twitter.com/MadBitcoins)THIS WEEK: Why bitcoin has rallied to a $112,000 record high while stocks are wobblinghttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-bitcoin-has-rallied-to-a-112-000-record-high-while-stocks-are-wobbling-135373cfSource: Market WatchBitcoin Price Suddenly Soars As Congress Predicted To ‘Make History'https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/05/18/jpmorgan-just-flipped-on-bitcoin-issues-huge-new-2025-price-prediction/Source: ForbesTrump speaks with presidential seal at crypto dinner the White House billed as privatehttps://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/05/23/trump-presidential-seal-crypto-dinner-white-house/83814443007/Source: USA Today‘What life is this?': The crypto investors who bought a dinner with Trumphttps://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/22/crypto-memecoin-dinner-trump-warren-00360761Source: PoliticoJUST IN:
In this episode we answer emails from Pete, Kevin and Dale. We discuss Pete's "Berry Pie" portfolio experiments on the testfolio site, the ongoing debate about the size and value factors and why it doesn't matter that much for constructing diversified portfolios due to Shannon's Demon, and some basics on the process for constructing portfolios moving from asset classes to specific ETFs.We also roll out our "Top of the T-Shirt" Matching Campaign to benefit the Father McKenna Center. Please support the Father McKenna Center by visiting their website and mentioning "Risk Parity Radio" in the dedication box when donating. Your contribution will be matched dollar-for-dollar and help provide meals and services to homeless and hungry people in Washington DC.And THEN we our go through our weekly and monthly portfolio reviews of the eight sample portfolios you can find at Portfolios | Risk Parity Radio.Additional Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page: Donate - Father McKenna CenterPete's Test Portfolios Analysis: https://testfol.io/?s=cTkuwqvwzMSShannon's Demon Article: Unexpected Returns: Shannon's Demon & the Rebalancing Bonus – Portfolio ChartsMeb Faber Interview of Professor Ken French: Famed Finance Expert Kenneth French Reveals: Most Dangerous Investor FallaciesBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Ever walked into a dive bar and found unexpected wisdom? That's Risk Parity Radio—a refreshingly honest approach to investing where movie quotes mix with mathematical principles, and portfolio theory comes without the corporate jargon.In this episode, Frank Vasquez launches the "Top of the T-Shirt Campaign," where an anonymous donor will match up to $15,000 in listener contributions to the Father McKenna Center. This small but mighty charity serves thousands of meals to homeless and hungry people in Washington DC with remarkable efficiency, using a $1.5 million budget, donated space, and an army of volunteers to maximize impact.The heart of the episode tackles a fundamental investing misconception—that we include value stocks or small cap funds because they'll outperform. Frank explains that diversification isn't about prediction but about mathematical certainty: "That's Shannon's Demon. If you have two assets with similar long-term performance but they aren't fully correlated, you're better off holding both than either one alone." By splitting stock holdings between growth and value, investors create systematic rebalancing opportunities when these segments diverge—as they dramatically did in 2022, when growth cratered while value remained relatively stable.Listeners get practical portfolio construction wisdom too: start with your goals, select appropriate asset classes, then choose specific funds—not the other way around. Frank emphasizes that ETFs have made mutual funds largely obsolete for new investments, offering better tax efficiency and portability.Weekly portfolio reviews reveal gold's continued dominance (up 28% YTD) while diversified portfolios showed modest gains despite volatile markets. Risk parity approaches demonstrated their resilience, with the Golden Butterfly portfolio up 3.13% year-to-date and 38.12% since inception in 2020.Ready to build a portfolio that doesn't require predicting winners? Want to support a worthy cause while learning? This episode combines financial wisdom with practical generosity—a perfect introduction to the Risk Parity Radio approach.Support the show
As Trump's tariffs continue to disrupt global markets and the AI revolution reshapes the investment landscape, market leadership is shifting - and there are surprises emerging among them. One of them is the language app Duolingo, which has quietly outperformed some of the biggest names in tech with a 58.1% return, even pipping Palantir Technologies at 55.1%. In an interview with BizNews, Sean Ashton of Omba Investments delves beneath the surface of index and sector returns and reveals Duolingo's value lies in its strength in leveraging AI within its business model to accelerate content creation, with new offerings potentially including chess, mathematics, and even music. However, both Duolingo and Palantir remain highly valued, with Palantir described by Ashton as 'probably the poster child for extreme valuations in today's market.' Among the other standout performers, cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike has posted an impressive 37.3% YTD return. And where do the Magnificent Seven stand? With Alphabet, NVIDIA, Microsoft, and other dominant tech players, Ashton argues that despite passing on the baton, “if you delve below the surface of indices and even sector returns, it is far from over in tech land. As for Tesla, Ashton points out that the Cybertruck hasn't hit its stride, auto margins have collapsed, and Musk's entanglement in US government affairs has triggered a backlash. But Musk should not be written off. "He's come back from worse many times before.
Can you hit a 30% growth target YTD and still make a major contribution to your community? Apparently, you can. In this episode, we talk with Nevin Bansal. Nevin is the Founder and CEO of Outreach Promos, a Columbus-based company providing online brandstores, branded merch, and design solutions. Nevin is also the founder and Executive Director of Small Biz Cares, a nonprofit that engages small businesses for philanthropy and community impact. Tune in to learn how to impact your bottom line and your community!
Derek Moore reflects on market reaction to the 2011 US debt downgrade and explains what S&P, Fitch, and Moody's have for ratings. Plus, are markets poised for more positive returns based on several indicators? The bear case against the markets would be a reduction in profit margins. Later, Derek reviews some data of future 12-month returns when consumer confidence is low as a contrarian indicator. Finally, looking at several current indicators and random musing in markets for clues about the future. All that and more this week. S&P 500 Index net profit margins for Q1 2025 Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are low but is that a good thing? Looking at how often intra year lows on average are -14% but often markets end higher 12-month inflation expectations are now 7.3% highest since 1981 Hard vs soft data Velocity of M2 Money Stock What has been working asset class wise in 2025 YTD 15 biggest rallies since 1950 and subsequent forward total returns Atlanta Fed GDP Now Investment banks starting to reduce recession probabilities Attribution of earnings EPS growth DeGraaf and Zweig Breadth Thrusts occurring within 1 month of each other Explaining the difference between Moodys, Fitch, and S&P bond ratings Moodys downgrades US Debt Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
UK PROPERTY MARKET WEEKLY UPDATE Welcome to the 18th UK Property Market Stats Show of 2025, your go to weekly TV show on the UK Property Market on YouTube This week, I'm joined by Simon Gates, as we delve into the key property market headlines for 18th week of 2025 ending on the 11th May 2025. The YouTube Show https://youtu.be/-tl_5WEIyLQ ✴️ UK Property Market Highlights this week ✅ Listings (New Properties on the Market) 34.9k new listings this week (last week 42.6k) Last week was a Bank Holiday week - meaning many numbers are lower than normal) YTD 5% higher than Week 18 of 2024 YTD and 10% higher YTD compared to 2017/18/19. ✅ Price Reductions (% of Resi Stock) 22.9k Price Reductions this week - Monthly Run Rate in reductions - 1 in 7.5 of Resi Sales stock per month is being reduced (which represents 13.4%). For comparison, 12.1% average in 2024, though the long-term 5-year average is 10.6%. ✅ Total Gross Sales (Agreed Sales) 23.4k UK homes sold STC this week (last week 28.3k) YTD - The number of Sold STC Resi homes are 8% higher compared to 2024 (469k Sales agreed YTD 2025 vs 433k YTD 2024) and 17% higher than 2017/18/19 YTD levels (399k). ✅ Sell-Through Rate (Monthly in Arrears) April's sale run rate of 15.36% of Resi stock sold stc (ie 15.36% of Estate Agents properties on the market went sale agreed). March's was 16.3%. 2024 monthly average: 15.3%. Long-term 8-year average: 17.9%. ✅ Sale Fall-Throughs 5,415 Sale fall-thrus last week from Resi Sale Sales Pipeline of 453k UK homes sale agreed (sold stc). Another method is that week's sale fall thrus as a % of gross sales that week. This week, that is 23.2% (last week 23.6%). Just below the 7-year average of 24.2%, and well below the 40%+ levels post-Truss Budget (Autumn 2022). In April, as a whole, 5.51% of sales in the UK agents pipelines fell thru. For comparison, 2024 average: 5.36%. ✅ Net Sales (Gross sales for the week less Sale Fall Thrus for the week) 18k net sales this week (21.9k last week), compared 2025 weekly average of 20k. 2025 YTD is 6% higher than compared to 2024 YTD and 11.5% higher than YTD 2017/18/19. Local Focus this week Salisbury Graphs Available for use in free valuations / internally. Please dont publish these on social media without my OK. Reason - my fee paying clients use them - so its not fair on them https://we.tl/t-PLMrlkC4zE
OpeningGolfPGA Championship at Quail Hollow. 156 players. Top 70 make cut. Qualification CriteriaCalifornia Budget$12 billion budget deficit. Newsom is proposing to close the deficit by rolling back state-funded insurance coverage for adults without legal immigration status, cutting coverage for weight loss drugs like OzempicCalifornia: 13.3%Hawaii: 11.0%New York: 10.9%New Jersey: 10.75%Oregon: 9.9%Investing$1000 to every kid. Home Alarm: $45/ monthMarketsTariffsTariff Game Theory: China has to blink because everyday that passes every company is studying and implementing supply chain changes. So much panic in last month or so. Now Flat year to dateIf investing on April 7. You are up 17% and 29% Downturns is when you make money!!! NetflixAll time high: $1182. Up 29% YTD. $500 billion market cap. Netflix said on Wednesday 94 million subscribers use its advertising-supported tier.BuffetBecoming old. 94 years old. Legend. I'm still pissed he didn't buy Tesla. CoinbaseRansomTurning it around. Will pay $20m reward to help find attackers!!! Tesla Stilll planning to go live with Robo-taxi in Austin in June. Shares could explode. $345 today. $480 ATH. If you bought Tesla 10 years ago. You're up 20x. 35-36% annualized returns.Robots dancing shown to Crown Prince and President Trump in Saudi. Talk in Saudi: Robots and wanting your own C3P0 or R2-D2 and productivity unlock. Universal “High Income”. How are we doing on Robotaxis. Robots on wheels. Bringing robotaxi to the Kingdom.Apple ATH $258. Now at $211. Was $172WHat is a buy-back?More of Eddy Cue testimony here. Alphabet/ GoogleSearch is dead. Cloud, Youtube, Google Biz suite alive and well.DOGEBig BallsThese kids are so hard core. No weekends. They know they're racing against a media and political clock that won't thank them for their service.Requiring receipts: "They were basically partying on taxpayer money." Recommendations:Friends and NeighborsTheo Von with David Spade. Listening to Ben Affleck.
Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Francesco Sassi for a wide-ranging discussion on global energy and geopolitics. Francesco is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the University of Oslo and previously served as a Research Fellow in energy geopolitics and markets at Ricerche Industriali ed Energetiche (RIE). Francesco holds a Ph.D. in Political Science – Geopolitics from the University of Pisa, where he focused his research on the Sino-Russian gas interdependence. We were drawn to his straightforward analysis, insightful commentary, and use of maps to bring complex dynamics to life. We were thrilled to visit with Francesco and learn from his perspective. In our conversation, we explore the rise of political risk in energy markets and the growing global interdependence of the energy system, driven by factors such as China's increasing influence in shaping energy geopolitics, new interdependencies created by energy technology, trade and manufacturing, as well as disruptions like COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. We examine Russian gas volumes to Europe, Spain's leadership in clean energy and the implications of its recent blackout, and the dual forces shaping Europe: rising cross-border interconnectivity projects alongside increasing energy nationalism. We touch on President Trump's recent visit to the Middle East, which is part of broader interest in energy and AI investment in the region, OPEC+ strategy, market share pressures, and the impact of low oil prices on Russia. Francesco shares his perspective on the potential for a Putin-Zelensky meeting, tensions between India and Pakistan, and how energy policy is becoming increasingly central to electoral platforms in Europe. We turn to Argentina's recent progress under President Milei, Israeli investment in lithium extraction technology in Argentina's lithium triangle, and how energy and mineral resources are increasingly being used as tools of foreign policy and geopolitical leverage. We close with Francisco's thoughts on the growing power of energy as a force shaping international relations and global industrial strategy. It was a dynamic and insightful conversation. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that broader markets rallied substantially on Monday following news that China and the U.S. have agreed to a “tentative” tariff deal. Broader equity markets (S&P 500) have completely retraced their losses since Trump's April 2nd Day of Liberation and are now up slightly (+4%). Meanwhile, the S&P Volatility Index has plunged from its April 8th tariff volatility highs and is now trading near YTD lows, something to be monitored closely as any surprise event could send broader markets lower. On the bond market front, the 10yr bond yield is trading sideways even though April CPI came in lower than expected. PPI will be released on Wednesday and if it too prints lower than expected, it could provide room for the Fed to begin cutting rates at their June 18th FOMC meeting. On the crude oil front, WTI price has rebounded nicely over the past week and now trades at ~$63/bbl. Oil traders remain focused on future OPEC+ production increases and increasingly on whether U.S. E&Ps will begin altering their 2025 capex plans at these lower prices levels. He wrapped up with a look at key events this week, notably NRG Energy's acquisition of LS Power's portfolio of natural gas generation assets (~13gw for ~$12 billion). The move follows Constellation Energy's mid-January deal to acquire Calpine Corp. and demonstrates that both companies are positioning themselves for an acceleration in electricity growth this decade. Many thanks to Francesco for sharing his time and insights with us today. We hope you enjoy the discussion as much as we did! Our best to you all.
It's clear - AI is the new oil - new gold - new currency. When Trump tells you to buy - BUY. SEEKING ALPHA BUNDLE - save over $150 TRENDSPIDER SALE - SIGN UP FOR AN ANNUAL SUBSCRIPTION AND GET ALL THE TOOLS I USE INCLUDING ALL MY ALGORITHMS AND STRATEGIES, CUSTOM WATCH LISTS AND SCANNERS. 1. This is my Quant 2. Fear and Greed - where are you? 3. Timeline of events over the last 60 days4. S&P Targets and the multiple 5. I am NOT positive YTD - but the markets are6. Alpha Picks are my top performers in my portfolio 7. Top Strong Buy Quant stocks with short squeeze potential 8. The Watch List - look at the gainers!9. Growth or Value - OR BOTH!10. $DIS11. $UNH12. $GOOG - why it will monetize 13. $NVDA - it's clearly being used as political currency 14. $SMCI - huge potential but I'm still trading it - not owning it15. Crypto - Rat Poison TRENDSPIDER SALE - best offer available -https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick Sign up at the top link (use code DSP25 if prompted) Email me at dailystockpick3@gmail.com I'll send you all the algorithms, watchlists and scanners that you see me use each and every day.Social Links and more - https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick SEEKING ALPHA BUNDLE - save over $150 SEEKING ALPHA PREMIUM - my $30 off coupon for a limited time Watch this episode on YouTube with video to see how Steve from Seeking Alpha uses the tool to navigate on picking stocks. Want to beat the S&P? Sign up for Alpha Picks here.FREE NEWSLETTER WITH CHARTS - subscribe at DAILYSTOCKPICK.SUBSTACK.COM
Investing in Bizarro World Episodes: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIAfIjKxr02sAztzlJNy1ug5bDvTVZkME&si=w2d_EF-B5jMo1dYD Subscribe to Investing In Bizarro World: @bizarroworld Programming Note: Bitcoin hits $100K again. And Gerardo buys Bitcoin for the first time. Chris Curl shows him how simple it is in this new video. https://bit.ly/3RXiJgbThe free version of the 316th episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.Here's what was covered:Macro Musings - GDP goes negative, and markets call it bullish. Powell punts again. Fed signals it may abandon the 2% inflation target if jobs suffer. Trump touts a “major” trade deal with the UK — that keeps tariffs the same. Tariff fallout grows: ports go quiet, shelves thin out. Paul Tudor Jones says stocks could hit new lows and warns of a 10% chance AI wipes out half of humanity within 20 years. Nick and Gerardo aren't laughing.Market Takes - Utilities and staples — the only S&P sectors up more than 2% YTD — continue to outperform as tariffs benefit domestically sourced goods. Philip Morris up 45% in 2024 because of no foreign dependence. Rotation into commodities is well underway. Bond and currency markets flashing stress. Nick sees more chop ahead but no recession — and new highs later in the year. How China is de-dollaring. Gold still under-owned. Bizarro Banter - The world gets a new pope — a Cubs fan from Chicago. Nick and Gerardo reminisce about 2016, the Cubs' last title, and the founding of Digest Publishing. AI warning bells ring louder as Elon Musk and other developers privately predict apocalyptic risk. Why NatGold, which tokenizes what it calls “naturally vaulted gold” isn't for serious investors. Gerardo jokes about naturally vaulted tokenized orgasms. Nick has a naturally vaulted six-pack. If you want to own gold, buy gold. If you want to own Bitcoin, buy bitcoin. Even Gerardo's buying Bitcoin. Learn more: https://bit.ly/3RXiJgbPremium Portfolio Picks - For paid listeners only. 0:00 Introduction1:06 Macro Musings: 2016 All Over? Paul Tudor Jones. Tariff Talk.11:33 Market Takes: S&P Sector Highlights. Uranium Snapback. Rick Rule. Gold Under-owned.24:06 Bizarro Banter: AI & Humanity. Gerardo Buys Bitcoin. NatGold Isn't Serious.28:41 Premium Portfolio Picks: Battery Technology Discussion. Two Lithium Stocks. Two Juniors Drilling Now. You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section: https://bit.ly/4j4HRwDPLEASE NOTE: There are now two versions of this podcast. 1. Bizarro World Live — Pay $2 per episode to watch us record the podcast live every Thursday and get Premium Portfolio Picks every week. You can do that here. https://bit.ly/4j4HRwD2. Bizarro World Free — Published the Monday after the live recording with no Premium Portfolio Picks.Visit our website Daily Profit Cycle for more content like this and more! https://dailyprofitcycle.com/
Associates on Fire: A Financial Podcast for the Associate Dentist
Welcome back to The Dental Boardroom Podcast with Wes Read.In this follow-up to our previous episode on structuring your Profit & Loss (P&L) statement, we dive deeper into the how of using your financials strategically.This episode walks you through 10 essential questions—or rather, areas of focus—to ask each month when reviewing your financial statements. These questions will help you uncover trends, evaluate performance, and guide your practice toward long-term financial health.Wes also breaks down how to align your collections with personal financial goals like retirement and financial independence. He shares real-world advice on navigating fluctuations in revenue and expenses.Whether you're a seasoned practice owner or new to analyzing financials, this episode is packed with actionable insights that will help you become a more financially empowered business owner.Key Points:How to read your P&L like a narrative, not just a spreadsheetMonthly collection tracking: comparing last month, YTD, and last yearHow to know if you hit your goals-based breakeven pointStrategies for consistent collection growth through marketing and operationsIdentifying outlier expenses and validating through the general ledgerWhy your practice financials should align with your life visionQuestion 1: What were my collections last month and year-to-date (YTD), and how do they compare to last year? Understanding variations in collections and what they indicateQuestion 2: Did I reach my goals-based breakeven point for the month and year? The importance of setting and measuring against personal financial goalsQuestion 3: How can I grow my collections consistently? The role of marketing, operations, and planning in revenue growthQuestion 4: Do any expense categories look too high or too low? How to review the general ledger to validate expensesMindset: Be intentional about aligning your practice's performance with your life goals.#DentalBoardroomPodcast #WesRead #DentalFinance #ProfitAndLoss #DentalPracticeManagement #FinancialPlanning #PracticeOrbit #DentalBusiness #DentalCFO #CollectionsGoals #DentalGrowth #PlanAndProfit #FinancialIndependence #DentistLife
Yes, that somehow made the cut. Plus Trump vs Harvard, Trump vs J Powell, Trump vs the IRS, which now has its 5th head in 3 months. Plus plus YTD performance and possible relief for scam victims.
There's danger in the market - but should you buy this once in a decade opportunity? What I heard about $HOOD that made me bullish. $COST or $NVDA - which one would you buy? Get the Top 10 stocks of 2025 from Seeking AlphaTRENDSPIDER EASTER SALE - SAVE ALMOST 40%Click this link - Then email me at dailystockpick3@gmail.com and I'll send you the welcome letter with everything to import to your setup with any annual plan 1. Chris Camillo convinced me - $HOOD2. Sell in May and Go Away - should you do that now? 3. Markets - inside candle - reversal? 4. Berkshire - quietly up 14% YTD in a down market5. Dangers in the market - Powell and mass selling6. $QQQ - once in a decade opportunity? 7. Costco or NVDA - which one are you buying? 8. Value or Growth - which one is the go forward sector?9. 5 value names including PPC 10. Earnings TRENDSPIDER SALE - best offer available -https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick Sign up at the top link (use code DSP25 if prompted) Email me at dailystockpick3@gmail.com I'll send you all the algorithms, watchlists and scanners that you see me use each and every day.Social Links and more - https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick SEEKING ALPHA BUNDLE - save over $150 SEEKING ALPHA PREMIUM - my $30 off coupon for a limited time Watch this episode on YouTube with video to see how Steve from Seeking Alpha uses the tool to navigate on picking stocks. Want to beat the S&P? Sign up for Alpha Picks here.FREE NEWSLETTER WITH CHARTS - subscribe at DAILYSTOCKPICK.SUBSTACK.COM
$BAC $C $NFLX $PLTR $CRWD $SNOW and others - I look at them Get the Top 10 stocks of 2025 from Seeking AlphaLimited Time offer on Trendspider - 2 week trials now - you won't get my tools until you sign up for a yearly plan, but it's a perfect time to try out Trendspider for less than $20 1. Alpha Picks - I tried to scalp it - it didn't work out - why? 2. $BAC - up 5% after earnings3. $C - up 5% after earnings4. $NFLX - up 5% - what to do now? 5. $PLTR - when to trim it6. 10 stocks trading over their 200 day moving average that are up YTD 10%-29%7. $CRWD - I bought - did you? 8. $SNOW - it's in the trading range I like to buy at 9. $UNH in to earnings10. Pelosi bought $VST here - you can get it cheaper11. $UAL earnings - $DAL will move with it12. $IBKR results show markets are getting cash inflow13. Crypto - $JNVR up 1200% over the last week 14. $NVDA will have a huge loss hit the books TRENDSPIDER SALE - best offer available -https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick Sign up at the top link (use code DSP25 if prompted) Email me at dailystockpick3@gmail.com I'll send you all the algorithms, watchlists and scanners that you see me use each and every day.Social Links and more - https://linktr.ee/dailystockpick SEEKING ALPHA BUNDLE - save over $150 SEEKING ALPHA PREMIUM - my $30 off coupon for a limited time Watch this episode on YouTube with video to see how Steve from Seeking Alpha uses the tool to navigate on picking stocks. Want to beat the S&P? Sign up for Alpha Picks here.FREE NEWSLETTER WITH CHARTS - subscribe at DAILYSTOCKPICK.SUBSTACK.COM
Tuesday, April 15, 2025 – Week 16 CURRENT NEWS #Sprint4Syngap 2025 is in eleven days! Start or join a team and fundraise! https://curesyngap1.org/sprint25 look at these faces, $167,979 of which $145k+ fromTavillas! Board Announcement: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1080490 LEARNING ABOUT SYNGAP1 ProMMiS NHS Webinar from Dr. McKee: https://youtu.be/zozwf1NDB5I we were waiting for this great paper: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1098360025000668 which I discussed in #S10e167. Also, learn from Dr. Knowles, Apple Pod: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stanford-medcast/id1529672674 YT https://youtu.be/VBWa0FklYJs Catatonia, watch these when you can: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7316937356194844672-PoUi/ Please ask me your ASO Questions - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1I0sRVZTY-A For instance, these won't repair, but they will will upregulate... = make work harder. MORE NEWS In #S10e168 I talked about Drs Bowie & Willsey, this week I can applaud Postilla! https://www.linkedin.com/posts/inflames-research-flagship_making-sense-of-missense-in-a-rare-children-activity-7316376546833833986--Qoc/ SIBLINGS Tell your story, please for the other ones. https://curesyngap1.org/syngap-siblings/shanaye-worth/ https://curesyngap1.org/sibling-support/ PUBLICATION COUNT PubMed is at 17 YTD, 325 in total (trending to 52+, but I'm not as confident) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=syngap1&filter=years.1998-2025&timeline=expanded&sort=date&sort_order=asc SHARE BLOOD TO THE SRF BIOBANK AT CB! Read here for more information: https://curesyngap1.org/blog/fueling-research-syngap1-combinedbrain-biorepository-roadshow/ VOLUNTEER Join us: https://curesyngap1.org/volunteer-with-srf/ SOCIAL MATTERS - 4,009 LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/company/curesyngap1/ - 1,334 YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/@CureSYNGAP1 - 11,369 Twitter https://twitter.com/cureSYNGAP1 - 46k Insta https://www.instagram.com/curesyngap1/ NEWLY DIAGNOSED? New families have resources here! https://syngap.fund/Resources Podcasts, give all of these a five star review! https://cureSYNGAP1.org/SRFApple https://podcasts.apple.com/us/channel/syngap1-podcasts-by-srf/id6464522917 Episode 169 of #Syngap10 #Advocate #PatientAdvocacy #UnmetNeed #SYNGAP1 #SynGAP #SynGAProMMiS
Wednesday, April 9, 2025 – Week 15 Condolences to the Brimsek family and thank you John & Tobi for all your support. We just shared an interview with our board member and John's son-in-law, Eric Moulton https://cureSYNGAP1.org/Stories Trip Report, two crazy days. Many takeaways. Trials may be coming soon. If there is a trail, sign up. Every time. khuba@jcu.edu Do the Frazier Study and do the follow-ups! https://curesyngap1.org/eye2 Global as well. Australia, UK, Canada, please help. We are busy too! DiMe announcement just came out https://www.linkedin.com/posts/curesyngap1_new-project-announcement-children-with-activity-7315615778366537728-c-gU Census is 1,581! https://curesyngap1.org/blog/syngap1-census-2025-update-q1/ Impact report has a webinar! https://cureSYNGAP1.org/Impact Both featured in Newsletter #44 - https://cureSYNGAP1.org/NL44 Monday 4/14 we have a webinar - Natural History & Clinical Trial Readiness - with Dr. McKee https://cureSYNGAP1.org/Jill We have one space available in Colorado on May 20, 2025, email Lauren@curesyngap1.org to sign up. Other blog about the CB Roadshow, please join us there https://curesyngap1.org/blog/fueling-research-syngap1-combinedbrain-biorepository-roadshow/ And the Polish Community speaking out about ASO trials: https://curesyngap1.org/blog/aso-choice-for-hope-syngap1-voices-from-poland/ #Sprint4Syngap 2025 is in one month! Start or join a team and fundraise! https://curesyngap1.org/sprint25 look at these faces, $66,383 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IW7owIsdjss Bowie - Our funding goes far: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1078836 remember in July 2022 https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/960181 Also see this from CZI, featuring SYNGAP1 in Dr. Willsey's work https://www.czbiohub.org/life-science/unlocking-biology-autism/ PubMed is at 17 YTD, 324 in total (trending to 52+, but I'm not as confident) https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/?term=syngap1&filter=years.1998-2025&timeline=expanded&sort=date&sort_order=asc VOLUNTEER Join us: https://curesyngap1.org/volunteer-with-srf/ SOCIAL MATTERS - 3,996 LinkedIn. https://www.linkedin.com/company/curesyngap1/ - 1,334 YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/@CureSYNGAP1 - 11,391 Twitter https://twitter.com/cureSYNGAP1 - 46k Insta https://www.instagram.com/curesyngap1/ NEWLY DIAGNOSED? New families have resources here! https://syngap.fund/Resources Podcasts, give all of these a five star review! https://podcasts.apple.com/us/channel/syngap1-podcasts-by-srf/id6464522917 Episode 168 of #Syngap10 #Advocate #PatientAdvocacy #UnmetNeed #SYNGAP1 #SynGAP #SynGAProMMiS
Tariffs are killing markets. A glimpse int what happens when we take a difference course Markets making some of the wort moves in decades Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions... WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not... More finesse, less sledge hammer? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Markets making some of the worst moves in decades - Billionaires - all in on Trump lost billions... - WAIT !!!!!! Maybe a 90-day pause on Tariffs now...Or Not... - More finesse, less sledge hammer? Markets - Key Reversal Indicator - 1st Green cluster bottom on Monday.. Oversold? - Stock markets slammed - President Trump discussing stocks - Economic Pissing Match - Even more tariffs, or bluffs - VIX HITS 60! -- A Quick Poem - Green Eggs and Navarro --- One of the gents that responded to Vietnam's desire to have zero tariffs as "not enough" DAX on Monday and other Markets - Opened up down 10% - clawed back a bunch by end of the day - European stocks down 1.5% YTD 2024 - US Stock bearing the brunt of the move - Hong Kong (after being closed Friday) - closed Monday DOWN 13%! - Monday in Japan, Markets halted, futures trading suspended as Nikkei and Topix plunge more than 5% --- Follow up - then up 6% the next day - Monday YTD US Markets: Heads Up - Just in... - Tuesday at 12:30PM - 'White House Press Secretary says 104% additional tariffs went into effect at noon eastern time because China has not removed it's retaliation. The 104% additional tariff will be collected starting tomorrow April 9th' -Markets were trying to right themselves - up big to start the day - then this headline.... - What if - China comes back at 200%? More: - Tuesday afternoon : White House Secretary Karoline Leavitt answers questions on trade at briefing: President Trump not considering delay in tariffs that are due to go into effect tomorrow at 12:01 AM - Where is the negotiation? Seems like a pissing match or bluff with unlimited funds. If you are interested - Rand Paul making all sorts of sense this morning - Trades are win-win. Trade does not mean that one side has to win and one lose. - https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/08/sen-rand-paul-on-trump-tariffs-trade-is-an-integral-part-of-capitalism.html Stupid - Taiwan's top financial regulator said on Sunday it will impose temporary curbs on short-selling of shares to help deal with potential market turmoil from U.S. President Donald Trump's new import tariffs, and will take other steps as needed. - Taiwan's Financial Supervisory Commission said in a statement it would limit the number of shares that can be sold short and raise the minimum short-selling margin ratio to 130% from 90%, starting from Monday and lasting until Friday. - We have seen how this plays out in the past. More references to bluffing - "I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they're playing with a pair of twos," Bessent said during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them." VIX - Hits 60 on Monday - then backs off to 45 - Not often we see a run like that. - Still at 45 shows big concerned about near-term volatility. --- S&P 500 top to bottom 7% move today - VIX was at 37 - back to 52 BREAK - IBKR Billionaires losing $$ - Do we feel bad? - Sample of losses on Liberation Day - Zuck lost $18B - Bezos lost $15B What? - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Americans looking to retire aren't concerned about day...
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the stock market tumble and whether investors can hope for a rally.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the recent Equity Market correction and what to look for next. It's Monday, March 17th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. Major U.S. equity Indices are as oversold as they've been since 2022. Sentiment, positioning gauges are bearish, and seasonals improve in the second half of March for earnings revisions and price. Furthermore, recent dollar weakness should provide a tailwind to first quarter earnings season and second quarter guidance, particularly relative to the fourth quarter results; and the decline in rates should benefit economic surprises. In short, I stand by our view that 5,500 on the S&P 500 should provide support for a tradable rally led by lower quality, higher beta stocks that have sold off the most, and it looks like it may have started on Friday. The more important question is whether such a rally is likely to extend into something more durable and mark the end of the volatility we've seen YTD? The short answer is – probably not. First, from a technical standpoint there has been significant damage to the major indices—more than what we witnessed in recent 10 per cent corrections, like last summer. More specifically, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 1000 growth and value indices have all traded straight through their respective 200-day moving averages, making these levels now resistance, rather than support. Meanwhile, many stocks are closer to a 20 per cent correction with the lower quality Russell 2000 falling below its 200 week moving average for the first time since the 2022 bear market. At a minimum, this kind of technical damage will take time to repair, even if we don't get additional price degradation at the index level. In order to forecast a larger, sustainable recovery, it's important to acknowledge what's really been driving this correction. From my conversations with institutional investors, there appears to be a lot of focus on the tariff announcements and other rapid-fire policy announcements from the new administration. While these factors are weighing on sentiment and confidence, other factors started this correction in December. In our year ahead outlook, we forecasted a tougher first half of the year for several reasons. First, stocks were extended on a valuation basis and relative to the key macro and fundamental drivers like earnings revisions, which peaked in early December. Second, the Fed went on hold in mid-December after aggressively cutting rates by 100 basis points over the prior three months. Third, we expected AI capex growth to decelerate this year and investors now have the DeepSeek development to consider. Add in immigration enforcement, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) exceeding expectations, and tariffs – and it's no surprise that growth expectations are hitting equities in the form of lower multiples. As noted, we highlighted these growth headwinds in December and have been citing a first half range for the S&P 500 of 5500-6100 with a preference for large cap quality. Finally, President Trump has recently indicated he is not focused on the stock market in the near term as a barometer of his policies and agenda. Perhaps more than anything else, this is what led to the most recent technical breakdown in the S&P 500. In my view, it will take more than just an oversold market to get more than a tradable rally. Earnings revisions are the most important variable and while we could see some seasonal strength or stabilization in revisions, we believe it will take a few quarters for this factor to resume a positive uptrend. As noted in our outlook, the growth-positive policy changes like tax cuts, de-regulation, less crowding out and lower yields could arrive later in the second half of the year – but we think that's too far away for the market to contemplate for now. Finally, while the Trump put apparently doesn't exist, the Fed put is alive and well, in our view. However, that will likely require conditions to get worse either on growth, especially labor, or in the credit and funding market, neither of which would be equity-positive, initially. Bottom line, a short-term rally from our targeted 5500 level is looking more likely after Friday's price action. It's also being led by lower quality stocks. This helps support my secondary view that the current rally is unlikely to lead to new highs until the numerous growth headwinds are reversed or monetary policy is loosened once again. The transition from a government heavy economy to one that is more privately driven should ultimately be better for many stocks. But the path is going to take time and it is unlikely to be smooth. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
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