Election 2015: is British democracy broken?

In February 2015 we asked the political experts what they thought the result of the election would be. See their predictions of the key factors that could determine the final outcome. In this video Victoria looks ahead to the possible results of the 2015 election. What do the polls currently predict the outcome to be? And with a 3% margin of error, how far can we rely upon what the pollsters tell us? With help from a number of political observers, Victoria considers the critical factors that may determine the election’s outcome. How well are UKIP and other of the smaller parties likely to perform, and how are the three mainstream parties battling to mobilise their supporters? Politics can move quickly. In the period since this video was recorded, polls have suggested the performance of the SNP may also have a major impact on the election.

What does it take to succeed as a prime minister or party leader? And does the greater prominence of leaders represent a triumph of style over substance? In this video, Victoria investigates how the role of party leader has changed in recent decades. She considers the impact of different leadership styles and asks whether the more personal approach of some prime ministers is evidence our political leaders are becoming more presidential. What does it take to leave a legacy as a prime minister and what constraints do political leaders operate within? As Victoria shows, favourable circumstances are important for leaders but so too is a clear political vision, a strong grip on government and the ability to communicate effectively with the public.

In this video, recorded in February 2015, Jocelyn and Victoria discuss the impact of the expanding use of political polls upon British politics. Key topics they cover include: • Has polling gone too far in British politics? • How do political experts use polls responsibly? • Do the media report polls with sufficient caution? • Can polls help people engage more with political debate? This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Are declining voter turnouts and the rise of protest parties such as UKIP and the Green Party evidence of a crisis of legitimacy in British politics? In this video, recorded in February 2015, Jocelyn is joined by a range of political experts to investigate the state of British politics on the eve of the 2015 election. Jocelyn considers the most recent evidence that there is a crisis of participation in British politics. He explores the growing popular support for UKIP and the Green Party and the increasing challenge they present to the mainstream political parties. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In this video, Victoria and David debate whether campaign messages can really change the outcome of an election. Key topics they discuss include: • What are the most effective ways in which parties can sell their message? • Do the public pay any attention to what the parties say during an election, or are their minds already made up? • How effective are soundbites? • What notorious campaign messages have had an impact on past elections, and what will be the key campaign messages in 2015?

Are polls and electoral forecasts an impartial barometer, a useful tool for voters, or a damaging influence that can distort the democratic process? In this video, Jocelyn considers the role of polls and election forecasts in the UK’s political system. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Parties are a key part of our political system. But what exactly do they do, and what part will they play in the general election? Political parties perform an important role in the electoral process. In this video, Victoria explains how parties differ from pressure groups and outlines how parties compete with one another to seek power. Victoria describes how the parties develop policy programmes, support candidates, and try to communicate their ideas to the electorate via door-to-door campaigning, television, and social media. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Have changing patterns of voting behaviour created a fundamental tension between the electorate and the UK’s political system? As Jocelyn explains in this video, older views of voter behaviour based upon class-alignment have been replaced by newer models that present a more complex picture of the relationship between social position and voter behaviour. The emergence of a more consumerist electorate has had far-reaching implications for the political parties and for the UK’s electoral system. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

How do pundits and political experts go about predicting the outcome or elections, and how can we distinguish good predictions from bad ones? In the run-up to the general election there will be no shortage of predictions of what the outcome will be - in fact we’ve already seen plenty in this course! But how do the experts arrive at these predictions, and how much faith should we put in them? In this video, Jocelyn lifts the lid on election forecasting. He explains the difference between pundits, whose opinions are often subjective, and electoral forecasters, who try to develop statistical systems to make predictions; and he considers the kinds of data forecasters regard as most useful in predicting voter behaviour. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In this video, Victoria looks ahead to the official election campaign that kicks-off when parliament is prorogued. She outlines the issues the parties will need to focus on in the weeks ahead and the role the parties and their leaders will play in communicating their message to the electorate. What about the election battle in the local constituencies? Victoria explains how parties target ‘key marginals’ and how candidates are selected for these seats, and she considers the strategies parties will use to drum up support among local voters. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In this video, Tim and Kevin discuss the evidence for and against the argument that UK politics is becoming more presidential. Key topics they discuss include: • Why is there a stronger focus on leaders and prime ministers in UK politics now than there was a few decades ago? • How far have the leadership debates reinforced the prominence of party leaders? • Has politics become more presidential? Or just more personalised? • Is British ‘presidentialism’ a product of institutional change, or is it more a matter of style? This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

The party leaders will be hard to escape during the election campaign. But where does their power come from, and how has the nature of political leadership in the UK changed over time? In this video, Victoria describes the key functions of party leaders. She explores how leaders are chosen and their importance as the public face of their party and spokesperson for its policies. The party leader’s role as figurehead and the close scrutiny they receive from the media means they need to be excellent performers in front of the cameras. But as Victoria shows, to be successful leaders must also manage their party effectively and be able to see the big picture of their party’s policies and political objectives. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

How do parties identify the key issues they will focus on in an election campaign, and how do they communicate their policy messages to the public? In this video, Victoria explains how political issues can be divided into two categories, positional and valence. She considers the techniques parties use to identify issues that will win them votes and distinguish them from their opponents and she explores the issues that will be central to the 2015 general election. If they are to succeed, political parties need to be able to communicate their ideas to the electorate. Victoria looks at the variety of ways in which politicians use the media to get their message across. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Is First Past The Post (FPTP) still the right system for national elections in the UK, or would different electoral systems better represent a more diverse electorate? In this video, Jocelyn reviews the key characteristics of the Westminster electoral system. He considers the historical background of FPTP, its impact on party and government in the UK, and explores the system’s strengths and weaknesses. Advocates of electoral reform argue that other, more proportional systems would deliver electoral results that were fairer. Jocelyn looks at the possible alternatives and the arguments for and against. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In this video, Jocelyn and Richard discuss the state of the UK’s electoral system. Is it still fit for purpose or are the arguments for change now overwhelming? The key questions they debate are: • Is it true the FPTP system isolates smaller parties, or have they now found ways of working through the system? • Does the existing electoral system help prevent radical parties from gaining a foothold, or does it deny some people representation simply because we don’t like their views? • With the decline of the two-party system and the emergence of a more diverse electorate is there anything FPTP has still got in its favour? This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

In this video, Victoria and Stuart debate the evidence that British politics is broken. Among the key questions they discuss are: • Is the emergence of new political parties evidence of voter dissatisfaction or a sign that politics is alive and well? • What does Russell Brand’s message that people should ‘break the system’ tell us about political attitudes in 2015? • Is the political system broken for everyone, or just certain sections of society? • Why do the mainstream parties all sound the same? This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Has the devolution of power to national assemblies and increasing electoral support for regional parties critically undermined Westminster’s legitimacy as the centre of political authority in the UK? The closer-than-expected outcome of the referendum on Scottish independence in 2014 sent shock-waves through the political system. Now the SNP is expected to make significant gains in the national elections. In this video, recorded in February 2015, Jocelyn considers the potential impact of the Scottish referendum on this year’s general election. He also explores the political consequences of devolution across the UK. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) Jocelyn concludes by looking ahead to the outcome of the election. What might be the implications if the parties of protest and the parties of the regions hold the balance of power at Westminster?

The Westminster model is a textbook ideal that promises stability, accountability and strong political leadership. But does that ideal still match reality? In this video Jocelyn explores the basic foundations of democracy in the UK, including the Westminster model, parliamentary government, the devolved assemblies, local government and the voting systems we use to elect our political representatives. Jocelyn considers how the development of new political forums and the emergence of new political parties has reshaped the political landscape, and what this may mean for the election in 2015. This item is released with a Creative Commons licence (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)