The Moving Curve

In this episode, Prof. S V. Subramanian, Professor of Public Health & Geography joins me to talk about why granular data matters, and how is team is helping fix the lack of it.

In this episode, I speak to the economists Paul Novosad and Sam Asher about the challenges with data in India and their work with the Development Data Lab

In this episode, I interview the Financial Times's data journalist John Burn-Murdoch about new data from the UK on the effectiveness of vaccines against the new B.1.617.2 variant first seen in India

In this episode, I look at the inaccurate data that the Indian government presented on vaccine effectiveness and new data that's been published in the UK. So what do we know now about the effectiveness of our vaccines against the new variant?

In this episode, I look at the role that variants have played in the pandemic, and examine the evidence on B.1.617

After a short break, the podcast returns to take stock of India's horrifying second wave, and pictures the road ahead.

It's been exactly one year since our first episode, and in this episode, I reflect on the year gone by.

We've relied on sero-surveys for a lot of our understanding of the pandemic. Did we take the certainty too far? Dr Anup Malani who has led several of the Indian sero-surveys joins me.

Why are numbers rising again, especially in cities like Mumbai and Pune that had such a massive first wave? In this episode, I speak to a range of experts to understand what's going on, and what it means for the future of the pandemic

Why hasn't Kerala's epidemic curve seen the same September peak and fall as the rest of the country? I speak to a range of experts and find that 'success' and 'failure' have often been poorly defined in the pandemic.

In this episode, bio-ethicist Dr. Anant Bhan joins me to explain the issues around the granting of approvals to the two vaccines in India's national programme.

In this episode, legendary virologist Dr Gagandep Kang joins me to talk about her concerns over ongoing vaccine trials and vaccine deployment in India.

In this episode, PTR Palanivel Thiagarajan, an elected representative from Madurai in Tamil Nadu joins me to talk about what it's like being a people's servant in these times, balancing a political career with considerations of safety.

In this episode, the leading bio-statistician Dr Bhramar Mukherjee joins me as we look back on her early modelling of the pandemic and my reporting of it

Mathematician Murad Banaji joins me in this episode to discuss what we do not yet know about whom covid has affected in India, and how we could fill in the gaps in our knowledge.

In this episode, Prof. Sandeep Juneja, professor at the Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, joins me to walk me through the Mumbai sero-surveys, and how to combine indicators to get a real sense of the picture on the ground.

In this episode, Dr Manoj Murhekar, the director of the National Institute of Epidemiology, and the lead author of the ICMR's sero-surveys joins me to talk about where the virus goes from here.

Dr Arun N Madhavan, a doctor from Palakkad, and a team of collaborators, are painstakingly compiling records of every covid death in Kerala to expose the extent of under-reporting. It's a model for other states.

Prof. Gautam Menon, professor of biology and physics at Ashoka University, and an infectious disease modeller joins me to talk about the plausible explanations for why India saw a peak in mid-September and a subsequent decline in cases.

In this episode, I speak to Shreya Raman, a young woman who lost her father to covid.

On this episode, Uma Mahadevan Nair, a civil servant in the state of Karnataka joins me to talk about her covid diagnosis and hospitalisation.

The first piece of solid research from India into how the SARS-CoV2 virus spread is also one of the largest in the world, looking at over half a million people. In this episode, I speak to Prof Ramanan Laxminarayan who led the research, and IAS officer B Chandra Mohan who is part of implementing data insights into policy.

The ICMR conducted a national sero-survey in April-May and only released the full findings in September. The paper's lead author Dr Manoj Murhekar, director of the National Institute of Epidemiology, joins me to talk about the survey's findings.

In June, I first spoke to Dr SP Kalantri, medical superintendent of a teaching hospital in rural Maharashtra, and he was waiting and watching for a pandemic that was racing through the cities. What's the view from Wardha like now that the virus has arrived? We check back in with Dr Kalantri.

States are using more antigen tests than ever, without being able to pull off the follow-up these tests need. So should the centre just throw up its hands?

New data on disruptions in routine health services raise the worrying prospect of India having set the clock backwards on health progress by years or even decades. Worst of all - there were people who saw it coming, others who know how to fix it, but there has been no movement on this yet.

Discussions about covid-19 mortality in particular break down around left/ right lines. How can new information from sero-surveys help us think independently about mortality - even if it means being on the same side as Trump supporters?

There is sometimes pushback against mathematicians who intervene in public debate around the pandemic, especially when it comes to polarised topics like mortality in India. In This episode, I interview Prof. Murad Banaji, a senior lecturer in mathematics at Middlesex University.

What's it like conducting a sero-surveillance survey during an ongoing pandemic? I talk to TIFR scientists Profs Ullas Kolthur and Sandeep Juneja about what it was like trying to go out and draw blood in Mumbai's slums and highrises.

Over two episodes, I interview Profs Ullas Kolthur and Sandeep Juneja from TIFR about the pioneering sero-surveillance survey they carried out in Mumbai. In Part 1, they explain the promises and pitfalls of extrapolating from their survey.

What can a large national sero-survey that India conducted in 2017 for dengue tell us about the road ahead for covid-19? I am joined by Dr Manoj Murhekar, Director of the National Institute of Epidemiology, who led the dengue survey and has great perspective on the current pandemic.

India is seeing a spurt of sero-surveillance surveys that could change how we think about the pandemic. But are they good enough to claim what they're claiming?

In this episode, journalist Nidheesh MK tells me that things are about to get much worse in Kerala in August. Has Kerala still earned the praise that it got globally in May?

Despite having India's first case, Kerala appeared to be the first Indian state to have, New Zealand-style, flattened the curve by May. By late July it had one of the fastest growing outbreaks of any Indian state, now at over 15,000 cases. What happened? I speak to the journalist Nidheesh MK.

Two large-scale sero-surveillance surveys - all-India and Delhi - could have told us a lot about the spread of the virus so far. But it's hard to learn much when the numbers are being presented in a problematic way.

How do you ensure that vaccine and drug therapy discovery keeps up with an ongoing pandemic without lowering the bar for evidence too far?

Has paying close attention to India's covid-19 data had the unintended consequence of causing governments to be less transparent?

In this episode, I interview virologist Dr Shahid Jameel and ask him basic things about vaccine development and the current candidates.

The ICMR says that its recent letter strong-arming hospitals taking part in vaccine trials was only to speed up approvals. So what's the harm in that? Potentially - a lot.

Audit committees were supposed to be a step towards ensuring that covid deaths are accurately registered and certified. But are they working as they should? Also featuring an interview with Dr Prabhat Jha, an expert on mortality.

On June 23, the ICMR expanded India's testing strategy to include antigen and antibody tests as well. So does this mean that anyone who wants a test can get one now?

Where do we stand now? This episode takes stock of India's current position, and I look at two places that worry me and two things that give me hope.

Countries around the world are trying to estimate covid-19 deaths that they might be missing. How can we do this, given the shaky foundations our mortality data rest on? Featuring an interview with Dr Usha Ram, a leading mortality researcher.

The WHO caused a bit of a dust-up ten days ago, when their technical lead appeared to be suggesting that asymptomatic transmission was "rare". This episode looks at the evidence and considers implications for public health messaging.

Karnataka's data collection and analysis in the pandemic has been exceptional. How governments use the data they collect is far more complicated.

How did Karnataka do such a good job of contact tracing when many other states are floundering? It started early, and it used tech. Munish Moudgil, the IAS officer who heads the state's Covid-19 War Room joins as a guest in Part 1 of a two-episode interview.

On April 3, the Indian government recommended cloth masks for the general public. Since then, there has been a range of new evidence about masks. So does the Indian government's advice need an update?

In Part 2 of an interview with Dr SP Kalantri, a veteran rural physician, this episode considers the question: how is rural and small-town India looking at the looming pandemic?

This episode features an interview with veteran rural physician Dr SP Kalantri, and asks the question: are we prepared for the collateral damage that the lockdown caused to the health of Indians?

This episode asks the question: what long-term impact can we expect the pandemic to have on today's children? Featuring economist Jishnu Das talking about his research on past disasters.

This episode asks the question: what does an expert on medical misdiagnosis think of how accurate our covid-19 numbers are? Plus, an attempt to move past the tired public v private debate.