Todd Garber Football Index

Reading Through The Trust Application Statement For Football Index Prior To 10th May Hearing by Todd Garber

Reaction To The European Super League Announcement by Todd Garber

Digesting The New Dynamic Rewards Announcement On Sorare by Todd Garber

What I Like & Dislike About Sorare & How I Play With Caution by Todd Garber

My First Few Weeks Trading Football (Soccer) Cards & Stickers by Todd Garber

Utility Cards Vs Collectible Cards On Sorare by Todd Garber

Why I Think The Gambling Industry Is Massively Flawed & How Could It Change by Todd Garber

How Safe Is Sorare by Todd Garber

We've see how being a rookie can increase value and demand massively on sports cards and other collectibles but is it the same for nft's and sorare? Although not extremely confident, I am confident and optimistic enough to take the small gamble. Perhaps sorare will release legend cards on retired players with more utility in the future or maybe another nft card provider will come along and take away demand. We are so early in this journey that I think it's very difficult to know the outcome for sure.

The removal of the PB deadline has thus far proven to be beneficial to the market in providing more late night excitement, more active trading and even cash out options for early holders. Therefore I think removing the media deadline will have a very similar effect and will be the next to follow. There are very few downsides other than perhaps more costs for Football Index's perspective however that should be fairly minimal and could be countered by extra commissions from more active trading. It must be coming!

Summer 2021 is looking exciting! We are only in February but it can never hurt to prepare early especially on FI. Traders on the platform especially under the current circumstances seem to be much more attracted to short term dividends. Players who are proven dividend earners and will win constant divs in the near future seem to be less prone to large price drops and attract more buyers. Therefore I believe as we approach summer with the euros and transfers, traders will want to buy players good for those events to get those short term dividends. Although impossible to predict exactly what will happen I believe we have enough information to make some good predictions now about who could win dividends over the summer. For the euros I think England players will be spoken about the most as the media is through English media. Whether the players perform or not, they will get talked about. After the euros and even before, transfer rumours will be a massive talking point for the media. I believe the main 4 candidates for the most transfer rumours and attention are : Erling Haaland Kylian Mbappe Lionel Messi Jadon Sancho I also believe that even in the worst outcome for those transfers, it will not result in their price dropping (unless messi goes to Argentina/mls) and in most cases will cause a rise (whilst collecting dividends on the way). I think the market will gradually begin to react to their inevitable media as we approach the summer so I think getting on before the rest follow could prove beneficial. Of course always make your own decisions and stick with your gut. This is all highly speculative and could be completely wrong. Let me know your thoughts!

Only a trial and error stage now, but on first glance I'm up for the trial. Removing the pb deadline (ie extending it to 23:59 could have a number of effects on how people trade on FI. Traders will now have the option to "chase" and trade specifically for dividends. This extension will allow traders to buy shares that are guaranteed to win for that day (unless OPTA adjusts the scores).This will likely cause some volatility where prices rise on players who are going to win pb but may start to drop again the next day. This may benefit long term holders looking for an exit price as they can sell on the rises and also may allow short term flippers to benefit. Although this moves away from one of the USPs of FI I don't think this necessarily damages it. Long term traders should find themselves unaffected by this. They can simply buy the shares before they get those daily rises and hold until they reach a price they want to sell whilst still taking in the dividends one. I'm not convinced this will solve all of FI's problems especially regarding liquidity and demand, however this could stimulate more active trading and make the product more engaging to short term traders so I think it's worth a shot!

I believe that when you put money into Football Index, half the bet is on the shares you purchase while the other half is on the success of the company. When FI thrives, so does the market and we see benefits such as increased dividend payouts, high volumes of trading and large price rises. When FI are struggling or declining we see negative impacts such as dividend reductions (ie the removal if IPD), less volumes of trading and large price drops. Therefore as a trader on FI, I feel like an investor in the company (whether that is technically true or not). I feel it is important for FI to fill their "traders/investors" in with things such as future plans and exciting news. We want to know how they're doing as this will have an effect on how much money we decide to leave/deposit into the market. This Q&A is a great step in the right direction as it creates a connection between the users and the owners. Hopefully this will allow a few important questions that are holding a lot of traders back, to be answered.

I don't know what I'm doing but it looks fun and has potential so giving it a go!

I believe that when you put money into Football Index, half the bet is on the shares you purchase while the other half is on the success of the company. When FI thrives, so does the market and we see benefits such as increased dividend payouts, high volumes of trading and large price rises. When FI are struggling or declining we see negative impacts such as dividend reductions (ie the removal if IPD), less volumes of trading and large price drops. Therefore as a trader on FI, I feel like an investor in the company (whether that is technically true or not). I feel it is important for FI to fill their "traders/investors" in with things such as future plans and exciting news. We want to know how they're doing as this will have an effect on how much money we decide to leave/deposit into the market. This Q&A is a great step in the right direction as it creates a connection between the users and the owners. Hopefully this will allow a few important questions that are holding a lot of traders back, to be answered. What question will you be asking?

February 22nd marks the first day of FI's new issuance system. There's been a lot of speculation about what effect this could actually have on players and the market and so I have spent some time trying to understand what the possible effects could be. Although this new system may see large walls of players near their all time high disappear, I don't think there is enough demand for any large rises to be sustained from this. I also don't see a lot of players currently at their ATH and so even if they are near the high after the minting shares are removed, the offers below peaks will remain. However the players that are at their peaks could see some very large jumps to begin with if there are no offers on the trader side as FI's selling will be massively reduced. In terms of minting new shares below peaks, it doesn't make sense in my mind for FI to mint any shares at prices that are less than what the player is likely to earn through dividends. Therefore I would only expect FI to mint shares on players who are at prices that they will most likely not achieve through divs. Unfortunately minting below peaks means there will be even more shares on the sell side which can only drive prices down more currently as there is still a massive lack of demand. In a liquid market, these changes make more sense and would have more of an impact in my opinion. But under the current market state I can't see any long term benefits from this on the traders point of view. (other than smaller walls on players near peak)

Having a value in mind of what your shares are worth or will be worth is really useful when planning an exit strategy as well as knowing when to enter a trade. However there will always be things that you either can't predict or didn't predict. Predicting a players entire career is almost impossible and therefore when things change and don't go to plan you must be quick to adapt and revalue your holds . Things always change in football whether it's an unexpected transfer, a player falling out of form or improving to become a better player etc. To become a great FI trader you need to be able to predict these possibilities and what can happen to a player over time however you must also be prepared to react and adjust when things change that you didn't expect.

Interesting subject this one. Could changing the VWAP to a higher average be a solution to some of FI's problems? For me personally I don't think so, perhaps a few short term effects but I don't think it tackles the long term issues surrounding liquidity. What are your thoughts? Are you strongly for? Strongly against? Or wouldn't be too bothered either way?

For a rational market liquidity is still what seems to be holding FI back the most. Liquidity providers is the obvious solution but it is apparent that they are very difficult to attain and so may still be a long way off (if achievable at all) One way to overcome this issue that has been discussed is allowing traders to use their cash balances on multiple bids and players. For example is you have £100 cash balance you could then put bids on a number of players worth up to £100 each. Ie 5 players would be up to £500 of bids. Once the £100 is taken, the unmatched bids then get removed. This could allow a larger number of bids to appear causing traders to be more competitive in bidding leading to higher bids, market buys and ultimately price rises. Lack of traders seems to be another thing holding back liquidity. If FI were able to increase the amount of traders and their engagement this would organically increase liquidity in the market. This obviously not an easy thing to achieve and out of their control to some level. However perhaps stronger marketing campaigns and expanding to new territories such as Germany could be a solution. Liquidity is greatly needed but it can be achieved over time I believe. I will keep monitoring the situation and am excited to see what FI have up their sleeves to overcome this.

It has been clear since the inception of Order Books that there simply isn't enough liquidity and demand in the market to sustain high prices. As demand dries up, their are less bids and market buys. This then makes it difficult for people to sell. Therefore people who wish to sell are forced to undercut eachother until reaching a price which can create some form of demand so they can sell. Therefore the drops don't necessarily mean large amount of people selling off as it could take as little as 2 traders to bring down a price significantly on a player. For consistent rises I believe we need more demand/liquidity. This can temporarily be achieved through dividends being paid out on the mostly owned shares, as a lot of dividend money tends to be spent back into the market. If we get consistent big winners then confidence will follow and walls will be broken however when we go through patches of lower end winners, less dividends are paid out and so liquidity is lower again making it difficult for rises across the market. As a long term trader I believe it's best to ignore the constant volatility of the market (unless you are concerned for FI as a business which is an entirely different matter). As a short term trader, you would do well to sell on the short term rises and buy back in the dips (although can be a risky game and harder to predict) Thanks for watching!

Although we've had some really good rises across the market over last few weeks, lack of demand and liquidity can't be ignored and ultimately makes it very difficult for these rises to be sustained. Players rise off the back of good performances (demand rises) but over time there isn't enough new money coming in to sustain the demand meaning when people want to sell it becomes difficult so are forced to undercut each other and thus bring down the prices. Long term holding, sentiment and these ups and downs aren't worth paying too much attention to as I believe in the long run either the prices will catch up to true value or alternatively you will be paid out in dividends the true value. With short term trading it's as simple as sell high and buy low. If a player gets a good rise off the back of a good game, it's possible it won't be sustained so could be a good time to sell, then rebuy back after a drop and take a profit. Of course this strategy has risks, such as if players continue to rise after you sold which may be caused by things such as new money entering perhaps from large dividends payouts. I believe there's big money to be made short term trading however comes with its risks. Long term is safer and more passive but can also become very profitable over time (unless they reduce divs again!)

Through my time and experience spent on the platform it has become clear that football is not and will probably never be the only thing effecting prices as a whole on the Football Index. Predicting player performances and value is only part of the game. If you want to focus on short term trading I believe it's very important to understand what could drive market prices other than player performances on and off the pitch. Sentiment is clearly a key driver in short term prices. Player have been rising left right and centre over last few days but not based on single performances. The players rising collectively as a whole across the market will be due to a number of external factors including sentiment (which has been shifted due to changes from FI) , trader spending power (which may have been increased when large amounts of dividends were won). Football Index as a company can make big announcements about promotions, mechanic changes, future plans, dividend restructures etc. These announcements may have large effects on how traders perceive value and their overall confidence in the market and platform. If changes are positive traders tend to become more confident and spend more overall causing a number of players to rise across the market but of course a negative announcement can have the opposite effect. Remember when putting money into football index you're not only betting on the individual shares you own but also the company as a whole. Company performing well could lead to more dividends and market growth but of course as we've already seen a struggling market can lead to dividend reductions and value decrease regardless of who you own.

Some really healthy rises again today! To me seems like a combination of factors contributing to this. There were some very large payouts on the weekend as lots of heavily owned shares earned dividends, sancho mbappe Bruno kimmich. As we know Sancho has 920,000 shares minted which would mean on a gold day if he won star man that would be over £250k paid out in dividends! (Assuming all shares are eligible). If even half of that was reinvested, it would have a big effect on the market. As mentioned the walls were already thin, and that combined with trader confidence and people unlisting they become even thinner and rises more drastic. The removal of IPD although not in play yet but quickly approaching seems to be having its intended effect of preventing constant share recycling and undercutting. This allows players to consistently rise and means the shares up for sale are genuine rather than people selling to simply recycle. They have also announced that FI will introduce 12 rungs of depth rather than 5. This will be great in giving traders a clearer image of how much money is needed to cause big significant price movements and May effect their trading. The date for this addition is unspecified but hopefully will come in soon.

The removal of IPD appears to be having an effect on the market already. Confidence seems to be much stronger than in previous weeks, and with less incentive for recycling, downward pressure has been reduced and rises are becoming more sustained and organic. Still very early days but looking promising and hopefully spreads remain tight, demand continues and we can keep the momentum going. In terms of finding value (now that constant rises seem a more realistic prospect than before) I would always suggest looking at percentages. Ie how much do you think a player will rise in relation to his current price. Premium holds can be much easier to predict rises and so less risky but in terms of getting the best ROI, it can be easier to find a greater return in lower priced players. Players who are for example 50p only need a 50p rise to get 100% ROI , whereas a £7 player will need a £7 rise for this (not including dividends). Another thing to consider is look at how much a player has dropped. If they have had large drops over recent months then it's worth noting that perhaps they need less to cause a big rise in the opposite direction. This is because rises can also be caused by shares being unlisted instead of purely rising through buying. And therefore players who have dropped the most have the biggest room to rise from un-listing but of course the players true value in relation to price is of most importance Overall a much more positive look on the index. Not worth getting carried away just yet but the rises do feel different and less artificial!

On first glance the addition of match day extra looks like a clever innovative and engaging new way to earn dividends however although the concept is good, the payouts are far too small. 1p a week is minuscule compared to the ipd payouts that were previously on offer. For example Bruno Fernandes has won (estimated) match day extra 5 times since beginning of this season. Assuming he does it over the next half of the season that will be 10p for the entire season (for the player who has performed the BEST in match day extra). This is compared to the 93p he won from ipd in 2020 (estimate). With other players the chances of winning are much smaller. It seems a score of around 190-200 is needed to qualify for top 6 extra position. This achievable on occasion but won't be a common occurrence for most holds. And with a 1p payout on the occasion they do it hardly seems to be close to what they could have earned in IPD. Understandably some traders did not like the constant refreshing needed for ipd and even recycled at a loss. On that I can only speak for myself but had no trouble recycling for break even or even a profit after paying commission and then being eligible for ipd, and so for me ipd would have been far far more lucrative meaning a lot of value has now been wiped out from my valuations. The intention of scrapping ipd is also to prevent the constant undercutting from recycling which I can certainly see the advantage. However if the spreads remain wide, there will still be an incentive to market sell and recycle as you'll be able to do so for a profit. Furthermore it appears most have already stopped recycling for IPD but the market is still not growing in terms of CA. This may all change once ipd is gone for good from 7th Feb and so will have to wait and see for that and hopefully less undercutting is encouraged. The idea of limiting supply on shares is real step in the right direction and something I wasn't expecting. However at 1million and Sancho not even reaching the million yet it hardly seems like this will have an effect in this CURRENT market. Even if all his shares were in circulation, until we have liquidity and demand, it seems this won't effect players prices as people will still want to sell low and supply out weighs demand. HOWEVER this introduction of limiting shares may be attractive to future market makers which would be highly beneficial. Furthermore if the market does achieve a stronger liquid position and or we have the introduction to increase demand say through Germany expansion for example, then I believe it is much more possible to see the benefits of limited supply. Perhaps it would have been better reduce the limit of supplied shares as I believe 1million is too high in this market. Again time will fell on this one but I can't see it having much of an effect on this current market until demand and liquidity is increased. Overall I am disappointed by the removal of IPD as it has reduced over all dividends and therefore value of players across the market. I understand that IPD may not have been affordable to FI but don't feel it should be the responsibility of traders to have to guess this and trade based on what the company can or can't afford. I do however think some of these changes theoretically are good for the future of the platform but the payouts (even if increased to 3p for example) are much lower than ipd offerings and I feel the limiting to 1 million shares will not have an impact on this market as it stands.

The idea is to either back or lay at certain odds and anticipate the direction the price will move to exit the trade in a better position. Essentially you cover all outcomes of the bet but if you get the prices right for backing and laying you will guarantee profit. There are various calculators online available for free which will help you work out which odds to enter and exit and for how much profit. Based on the information I gathered from online forums, YouTube videos and websites, I decided to trade horses 10 minutes before each race. I was under the impression that no prior knowledge of horses and horse racing was necessary as you could trade based on your knowledge of understanding trends and money on the market to predict which way the prices would go. This however for myself proved unreliable as the trends tended to be mostly unpredictable and random. And as I didn't know what was good value or not it was even more difficult to understand why and when prices would move. I also encountered a few risks when trading this way. 1) I downloaded software thinking it would give me an edge (which it did in terms of speed) but not in terms of actual good trading. One setting was setting a stop loss ie an exit point where I would automatically back or lay to exit the trade if the loss became too great. However many times as prices move so quickly I found this stop loss bet wouldn't always get matched which lead to the prices moving even further out of my way and losing more and more money than the original stop loss. 2) As it was bets placed very near the off, if I was unable to exit the trade before the race started it would go in play. Where it is a complete gamble and the horse could fall at the first hurdle for example losing the entire stake. (Which would be a high stake as you need relatively high stakes to get a worthwhile return on the trade) 3) Another issue I found was the site would sometimes crash unexpectedly. Although this happened on rare occasion it occurred enough times through my experience to be a problem. As the concept is backing and laying with high stakes to get a smaller reward (for example backing at 5 and laying 4.5 would require approx £100 to win approx £10), if the site crashed after only placing one bet, I would lose either £100 if I backed or £390 if I layed the bet and it lost. As the race would still continue regardless of the site crashing It is also possible to trade on other sports although admittedly I have less experience in that area however it seems to be the same concept. Therefore the true way to win at sports trading is to have an edge. Know what the true value should be, and know why and when prices will move but not based on graph trends based on actual knowledge of what will happen around the event. Therefore I consider it just another form of gambling. It can feel less risky than other forms of betting as IF you have an edge your “bet” is more educated and risk reduced. And is less risky than betting on bookmakers where they give themselves their own edge by pricing their own odds. In terms of software I would personally say it's unnecessary until you've found your edge. And if you find your edge requires speed then would recommend but until then don't see the need. However perhaps using a free version with fake money may be beneficial as I did with BetTrader.

he removal of IPD came as a bit of shock to many and has understandably caused people to question FI's ability to sustain current dividend payouts and wonder whether they removed IPD as they were unsustainable to them. However you must understand this thinking is based purely upon speculation as the reasons they gave for removing IPD made perfect sense and so don't necessarily mean it was anything to do with their affordability. I believe a great indicator will be seeing what comes in to replace them. Currently on a gold day, FI pays out 59p in PB divs. If after the new announcement, the total payout is less than or equal to 59p , it would certainly raise more questions on their finances as this would show they have reduced their dividend payouts as they have taken away IPD without adding more. HOWEVER if the total payouts under a new structure total up to to more than 59p (depending on how much more) this shows they have simply moved the money around to stimulate the market but haven't reduced their dividend spend and thus showing affordability perhaps wasn't an issue. Time will tell. In terms of what the replacement will actually be I can only speculate but based on the wording would guess it's something along the lines of tiered Pb where they payout top 3 places on each position. And perhaps and increase in payouts for TOTM. A threshold of Pb score payouts is another possibility where for example when your player reaches certain scores they get paid out accordingly however this seems less to do with positions like the announcement suggests so I'm not convinced this will come. Perhaps maybe a threshold system with different thresholds for different positions could fit the wording more.

Today they announced that they will no longer be paying out for IPD (starting 7th Feb). To my understanding they have done this for a number of reasons. 1) IPD incentives share recycling which causes downward pressure on prices preventing the market to grow 2) They mentioned that for whatever reason this was preventing them from expanding into other territories 3) They simply can't afford it. It's not sustainable to them. Although I agree that perhaps IPD was creating downward pressure through recycling incentives I must admit I am currently left disappointed by this announcement as it has dramatically changed the value of holds on the platform. Shares bought with intention of returning divs through IPD have no become worthless. Some may have been bought with the incentive of winning media, PB along with IPD and so they have become less valuable immediately. HOWEVER this drastic change MAY lead to some positive changes as intended. The removal of the payouts should allow FI to have a larger budget to spend on other forms of dividends and potentially grow the market through that. It is mentioned a new opportunity will be introduced over the coming weeks based around player positions which could be tiered PB. This could be positive and make it easier to win performance dividends. The reduced downward pressure from recycling may also lead to some growth and we may see the return of a more steady capital appreciation. However for this to work I believe spreads will need to be tight to prevent the incentive of recycling for a profit. In terms of market expansion to new territories such as Germany, I believe this can only be a positive thing as will grow the market and may even help provide liquidity. However I will not have any expectations of when and if this expansion will actually come to pass. What could be to follow: All players who have very little chance of winning media and performance divs over their careers will have no sell price as in this market have now become worthless. The money that is taken out from these “dead holds” may be transferred into more premium holds who have a better chance for dividends and so may see some rises in certain players.

Following advice blindly is never a good strategy. Even if the person giving advice is respected and proven you should always research the advice given before taking it. This way you will always have full accountability and ownership over your own trades and decisions and this will also aid you in learning from your own mistakes as well as understanding your wins.

Been good to see some players get big rises in short spaces of time following the weeks of consistent drops and although still a long way off from where they were in price, is a sign of how thin some of the walls are and how quickly things can change. To me doesn't seem like a coincidence that the rises occur shortly after a “big dog” (ie someone with lots of shares in circulation) wins dividends causing more money to enter the market and break down walls. In terms of being sustained, until/if liquidity is provided external or mechanics are changed it will heavily depend on whether the big dogs win dividends or not in my opinion and so if we go through a dry patch could potentially expect some drops again however if they do perform as they were expected to then no reason why the rises won't follow.

With the constant downward pressure caused by a combination of factors such as over supply, lack of demand and lack of liquidity, it's no surprise to see price constantly dropping especially at the top end. As I believe we are a long way of liquidity IF even possible, and have seen nothing to suggest they are considering bringing back Instant Sell as an option I can only assume this trend will continue until the individual players reach a bottom. Once they reach their bottoms (and I can say at what price that will be) we should then see constant ups and downs around those prices based on dividends won and hopefully over time as people realise and understand the true value that is on offer the prices will move up more organically and gradually. So for the meantime I would advise against any form of short term trading unless on lower end players who are already near their “bottom”. In terms of value I remain unconcerned as I am content that the prices I paid for my players are more than achievable in terms of dividends over time however may be a longer process than I had first hoped.

Twitter : https://twitter.com/CartelIndex @CartelIndex Instagram : https://www.instagram.com/todd_garber_index/ Spotify : https://open.spotify.com/episode/6TZx... Facebook : https://www.facebook.com/ToddGarberFI Been good seeing lots of suggestions recently to help enhance FI and tackle some of the core issues we are currently experiencing. Liquidity is an obvious flaw but very difficult to overcome without the help of liquidity providers which may not be possible at this point in time. Another issue is perhaps the oversupply of shares. Bringing back instant sell could do the following: Restore confidence as traders will know they ALWAYS have an option sell Reduce the oversupply of shares as they will be removed when instant sold back to FI Allow FI to profit and grow. As well as reducing dividend payout costs I would suggest offering Instant Sell as a bottom price. Traders can buy and sell as normal but never below the IS price. The IS will be determined by FI at a price that is considered good value to them to buy back but also not too bad value to the traders that they refuse to sell. This price could also change overtime as factors change perceived player value. Furthermore I feel they shouldn't issue new shares below what they consider good value and only above. This will further allow them to sustain profits and reduce the chance of over supply. Traders will still have ways of profiting as they would on bookmakers by using their knowledge to find prices they disagree with and “pick the winners”. As well as flipping and trading in between the prices.

I've noticed a few videos and comments on “the risks of FI” and yes some points are valid there are risks with any sort of bet/investment. However one point that is highlighted is the fact that you may not be able to sell within 3 years and so value can only be based on the players return over 3 years. This is highly highly unlikely as even if a players price continues to drop, it will reach a point where the value is too good to ignore. For example Sancho hits 50p. There will be demand as many will see the obvious value and purchase. This means we will be able to sell and even though for a big loss, we can recycle the shares meaning we can hold the player until he retires. This means the value will be based on their yield over their career and so if you buy players at good value you will still win over time. For example if you buy sancho at £10 and he drops to £2 but you value him at £20 when you bought, you can keep recycling at £2 , you will have an initial £8 loss (plus commission) but you will have earned £20 in divs over time meaning you are £12 up.

It's easy to get attached to your holds but comparing current price to value can be vital in maximising profits. You may have two players for example you hold, who may be doing all the right things and what you predicted but one of them is steadily increasing as hoped but the other has declined in price for no real good enough reason to damage your perception of his value. Therefore if the second player has now dropped to a price where he is much better value (in terms of ROI), the right play may be to exit the hold that is moving in the right direction and put on the declining player who now is further away from their true value leaving more room for growth in terms of profits. To maximise profits you need to buy players when they are below value and sell when they are above or at. Therefore buying players who are furthest from their true value (in terms of %) is a great way to maximise profits. Even if a hold hasn't fully gotten to the value you want to sell for, it still may be the right thing to sell them if it means that money can go on someone else with more potential of growth from that point in time.

Prices are very volatile right now and it may be like this for a while longer but as time goes by I believe the price jumps will be less aggressive as we move towards a more equilibrium price. Prices may get low, but if they go below value then it makes no sense (from a trading perspective) to exit the trade. As prices become noticeably below value, less and less will want to sell, this will cause buy bids to not get matched and become more competitive and lead to market buys. The market buys will then cause upward pressure on prices and will expose how thin some walls are as the average offer prices suggest. It is understandably a long and frustrating process we are in for this transition into a fully functional order books however I believe we are heading in the right direction.

It can be very easy to become too attached to your holds, especially if you have held them for a long time. However you really must consistently ask yourself, what is he worth? If nothing has changed and he is still underpriced in your opinion then perhaps holding on is the right option but if something has changed such as the player not being as good as you first thought, then you MUST adapt. Furthermore if you're player is at a loss but you think he'll recover, you should still ask yourself, are there better opportunities in terms of percentage rise based on current prices. Getting a player from red to green may not always be the best option. Sometimes selling in the red and finding someone else who will rise even more could be the preferred choice to maximise profits. It is highly unlikely that every single you ever buy, you'll be able to sell for a profit so don't be afraid to sell at a loss on the ones that haven't come off. Go by value not by profits. Never sit and hope with no thought process.

Since inception there has always been a lot of debate and discussion about how Football Index sustains themselves and "how safe is your money". I can only answer with what I think is the case but this is of course all speculative as I do not have the facts to back this up. I believe when FI mint new shares they aim to break even as a whole. Meaning some shares they mint, they will pay more than what they receive from that point in dividends, making a loss and some they mint they will pay less in dividends and so make a profit. And so with the two countering each other out, I believe the goal of minting is to break even and sustain dividend pay outs. Commission could be the key driver in FI's profits and is what essentially gives them an edge over their "dividend bets with us". With the introduction of IPD along with order books and the addition of charging 2% on buy bids , I believe this is how they make their profits. Very much interesting to hear your thoughts and opinions on this one!

Having an exit strategy is always a good idea. Don't just wait and hope, have a plan and price on when you want to exit a trade. With order books, we can now set our exit trade in advance and offer shares higher than the current market prices. At the moment we are currently limited to being able to offer shares at £1.5 above current market price. Therefore as an example if you have a player who you want to sell at £3 but his current buy price is £2, you will be able to offer him now at £3 and just sit back and wait for him to get matched assuming he gets the rise. This means you don't have to be quick to react to price jumps and won't miss out if for example he jumped in price but then came back down.

As the buy price is currently a representation of the lowest 900 shares on offer, it may not be the most accurate thing for you to pay attention to when buying and selling, especially when scalping the spreads. A much clearer representation is by looking at the depth. This will show you the individual amount of shares on offer and bids at individual prices. You may see a buy price of £3.5 however after looking at depth there may be 100 shares on offer at £3.1 meaning you would be able to buy 40p lower than what the average suggests. There are two ways to trade the spreads: 1) You offer your own shares, and then buy them back cheaper or at break even allowing you to have recycled shares for IPD and possibly made a profit too. The way to do this is multiply what you're selling for by 0.96. This will give you the highest price that you can buy back for without making a loss. e.g. You sell for £1, therefore you need to buy back no higher than 96p 2) You buy through bids and then sell higher. You will need to multiply what you buy for by 1.04 to find out the lowest possible price you want can sell at without making a loss. e.g You buy for £1, therefore you have to sell for a minimum of £1.04 Trading spreads is a great way for making money as well as a great way for recycling shares in order to make them IPD eligible as well as valid for another 3 years. There risks involved of course, and the risks become higher when trading on volatile prices. For example trading a player who is currently playing a match is high risk as something he does in the game could cause a big price jump meaning you could get caught out.

Lots of positive changes implemented to the platform today. Market depth allows us to see the queues and how many shares and how much money is needed to move prices up and down. Perhaps it's only flaw is by only showing us the next 5 offers and bids rather than the whole market which therefore doesn't give us the whole picture, but certainly a very useful addition to the platform. Average price offer is the average of ALL the shares on offer at any one time on a player. This is a great feature as it will allow us to see what the rest of the market as a whole is willing to sell that player for. It is also important to remember that this average does not include all the shares that are not on offer meaning it still may not represent true market value. Average price offer can be used to find some immediate value in terms of bid price compared to the average. Simply divide Average Price Offer by the sell price (or whatever price you are willing to bid) and multiply by 100. This will give you a percentage of how far off the bid price is to the average offer price and so the higher the percentage the better. You can use this to compare with other players to help you decide on who to buy for a greater chance of short term rises. The new portfolio calculations certainly represent a more accurate view longterm but if you are looking to sell soon they are not much to go by. Use them as a guidance to see where you are in comparison to what the market currently values your port but for immediate worth you will probably be better going for MID Price however there is no right or wrong answer with this so it is entirely up to you on how you wish to view your ports worth. Remember that if we do see some large price jumps, always stick to your strategy and have an exit point in mind for when the players price moves above your perceived value. Don't just watch and hope.

After engaging with the Football Index Community via social media, there still seems to be a number of traders who believe value of player should be based over their next 3 year earnings only and not include their future potential over their entire career. I believe this to be incorrect. A simple example to remember is to think of an older player and younger player who can both earn the same amount over the next 3 years. Say for example Lewandowski and Haaland can both earn £3 in dividends over the next 3 years. But in 3 years time Lewandowski retires. This means both will have earned £3 after three years through dividends but Lewandowski will be unsellable whereas Haaland will still have demand. Therefore if you chose Haaland you would be able to receive £3 dividends AND sell him and get money back through that, however with Lewandowski you can ONLY get the dividends as there will be no option to sell. Therefore two players who can earn the same amount of divs over 3 years should be the same value according to people who base it in 3 years but as explained in the example above this is not true as one will be able to earn significantly more than the other.

We are going through a very hard transitional stage right now, of changing from the old model to order books. Perhaps the implementation could have been done better but there is no point wasting time thinking about what ifs. I believe Thursday could be a real turning point in moving towards a functional order books system. Removing the floor may cause massive sudden price drops however players will get to the point where they become too attractive not to buy and at the same time become to unattractive to instant sell. This will cause spreads to tighten meaning anyone offering shares for recycling purposes will lose their incentive as the tight spread along with 2% on buy bids may cause a loss on recycles. Furthermore tight spreads with no one instant selling means bids aren't getting matched which should create incentive to market buy as they can guarantee the purchase. The combination of people who are recycling un listing and people now market buying could cause the market depth to show that not many shares are needed to be bought to cause BIG price jumps. Big price jumps could have an effect on other players and cause fear of missing out across the market causing a chain reaction of others rising. Prices may fall again after rising but the process will continue to repeat itself until we reach an equilibrium. ie a price which is not too low that causes mass buying and a price that is not too high that causes mass selling. Patience may pay off big time in the near future. Drops will come but the trade is only lost if you sell for a loss.

Full announcement : https://trade.footballindex.co.uk/pro... A lot to digest so make sure you read it thoroughly before reacting. A fairly positive announcement with lots of exciting things to look forward to.

Full announcement : https://trade.footballindex.co.uk/pro... A lot to digest so make sure you read it thoroughly before reacting. A fairly positive announcement with lots of exciting things to look forward to.

There is no question that announcements from Football Index themselves can have enormous impacts on the market. Whether it's a dividend increase, promotion, deposit bonus, mechanics change etc it can have a large effect on market sentiment and traders perspectives. Therefore it is important not to miss these announcements as you may miss out on large changes if you don't react quick enough. The safest thing to do when you are expecting an announcement of some kind is to un list all your bids and offers until you have read and analysed what the effect of the announcement will have on the market. This is because if you had left shares on offer for example in order to recycle, the announcement may have the effect of boosting the market for whatever reason, leading to large rises and thus your shares being sold immediately but with no option to buy them back at the lower price. Turning on notifications via the football index official twitter account and through their app can be very beneficial as you will then be notified as soon as the announcement comes in. Although difficult, it can sometimes be possible to anticipate what an announcement will be and if you are confident enough in your assumption it can be very beneficial to react before the announcement comes in. For example if you're expecting a dividend payout rise for Goal Keepers then buying lots of goalkeeper shares will result in a good profit after the announcement. However predicting announcements is always high risk as you can never be too sure what it will be. In the case of tomorrow where they have given a specific date and a time of announcement, I would recommend un listing offers and bids a couple of hours before the set time (assuming you are unsure of what the announcement will be and what effect it will have on the market)

It's easy to forget how important percentages are. Don't fall into the mindset of thinking that a £2 rise is always better than a 50p rise. Example: You have £1000 to spend. You can either: Option1) buy a £10 player who rises by £2 Option 2) £2 player who rises by 50p Option 1Profit = 100 shares x £2 = £200 Option 2 Profit = 500 shares x £0.5 = £250 And so you can see here from the example above how a smaller rise on a cheaper hold can in fact lead to more profit. Therefore when looking for the best value it is important to look at the % return on investment rather than just the rise. To calculate the percentage we simply divide the expected increase by the current price we are going to by. Using the previous example: Option 1) Expected ROI = (£2/£10) x 100 = 20% Option 2) Expected ROI = (0.5/2) x 100 = 25% Speed is also important as if you are expecting a smaller ROI but at a quicker speed then it may be worth considering that option as you can enter and exit the trade sooner and still move onto a higher ROI after taking the profits.

It's fascinating how much of an effect an announcement from FI can have on the market but you simply cannot ignore it. This announcement in particular is very vague but has the potential to bring a lot of positivity to the market. However I think it is always beneficial to go into announcements with no expectations to avoid disappointment. Prices have dropped even lower and there are many opportunities for buying at value. With low confidence the risk has gotten greater as many players do not currently offer a sell price. This means it can be very difficult to exit trades currently. This is most likely a temporary issue that will be addressed over the coming months but of course nothing is set in stone. Deciding what effect the announcement will have on the market is based on opinion and you must make your own choice but you should react to what you are expecting for example if you think it will cause the market to boom then it would be wise to invest now while the prices are low. Sometimes the right option is to do nothing and wait so I'll leave this one up to you!

Seeing your port drop continuously day by day can become stressful and painful to watch. It can cause you to second guess your holds and consider selling up on some positions. However it is important you remind yourself of why you bought the holds in the first place. When buying players for long term holds, you must consider what you value the player in terms of what they can produce through dividends over their career. In long term trading buying players at good value can lead to profits by two ways: 1) the price catches up to their actual value and you can then sell of and take the profit or 2) the price doesn't move but over time you will earn the money back plus profit through dividend returns. Therefore even at times when players are dropping consistently across the market, if you bought players at value you will come out on top as they will return their price and more through dividends (assuming your valuations were correct). A player can drop to £0 but if they are returning in dividends more than what you paid for him , then you will profit. Valuing a player over their career is of course very difficult, and things will always change meaning you must update your valuations consistently. But learning the ability to value holds to an accurate estimate will benefit you enormously when deciding on when to enter or exit trades. More info on valuing players : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8YyH2SlMUM0&t=15s

The market is experiencing a massive downturn. Prices are dropping across the whole market and spreads are widening. Although it is unclear specifically what is causing the drops we could assume it's a combination of a number of factors such as lack of liquidity, lack of confidence both in and out the market (maybe caused by economic factors such as the pandemic), wide spreads creating less incentive to market buy and more incentive for people to sell and trade the spreads. We've seen over the last few months since the arrival of order books in its first stages how the market can become very volatile and how we can go through periods like this of continuous drops. When it comes to matters outside of football having an effect on the market, it can become very tough to predict who will rise and fall as the drops may not correlate to actual player performance and value. Therefore it is very important to understand when you are in an uncertain period like this, as it will have an effect on short term trading. Even if a player you chose for a short number of games, performed outstandingly as you hoped, he may still not get the rise you wanted due to external factors such as confidence in the market. This is therefore going to have an effect on your short term strategy as predicting what players will or will not do may still not benefit you in terms of how they will do on the market. In uncertain times like these it is perhaps wiser to move away from the short term flips and stick to long term trading and buying at value. Remember it is much less likely that sentiment or other external factors are going to have an effect on your long term holds. This is because a) those factors tend to only be short term and b) even if your player doesn't rise in price, if you bought at value, you will profit through dividend yields.

Spreads have become very volatile recently as we have seen them tighten and widen over short spaces of time. My aim was to anticipate when the spread would widen. The spread had just tightened as the player had scored 2 goals and won top FWD. I assumed this caused the spread to tighten from people trying to gain some IPD dividends as well as fear of missing out on a large growth over night. I hoped this tightening of the spread was only very temporary as I have seen that happen in the past, and thought it would be wise to sell now, so I could buy back and recycle my shares at a lower price when the spread widened again - Sell high buy low. HOWEVER The spread never widened and in fact it tightened. This could be due to the player (Joao Felix) being such a young player with enormous potential, people who bought him might fancy him as a long term hold and so less exited over the coming days. Since the end of the bonus we have seen a number of spreads tighten so perhaps sentiment and confidence is starting to pick up. We will never know for sure why I got it wrong but it's important to try and understand the possible reasons to allow myself to learn for next time. I stuck to my exit strategy of buying back before his next game as I don't want to chase the bet and remain disciplined. No one will get every trade right. That is why it's important, especially when trying something new like this to start small, learn from experience and then go bigger when you are more confident and prepared.

Until market depth is introduced this could a useful way to see what the current highest bid on players you own are. Simply click Instant Sell as if you were going to sell and you'll see you will have the option to sell shares above what the current sell price is. This is because the sell price is just an average of the highest 300 shares bid on that player. If you can see what the highest bid is, by bidding above that you will be front of the queue. That means when someone instant sells their shares your bids will be first to get matched. Alternatively you may want sell your player but not for the current sell price as it's too low. You could Instant sell a few shares at the highest bid offer and keep waiting for higher bid offers. That way you'll end up selling shares fast but not as low as the current sell price.