Podcasts about Market

Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Lisa Mulrain. Summary of the Interview On Money Making Conversations Masterclass, Rushion McDonald interviews Lisa Mulrain—CEO of Legacy Building LLC, a financial literacy and legal services entrepreneur with more than 30 years of federal government experience as a securities attorney. Lisa’s mission is to empower individuals and small businesses through financial education, credit repair, debt management, estate planning, and investment strategy. The interview highlights her transition from government attorney to entrepreneur, the purpose behind Legacy Building LLC, and the unique combination of her legal expertise and financial coaching. She breaks down how underserved communities can close knowledge gaps, develop stronger money mindsets, repair credit, invest wisely, and protect assets through estate planning. She also explains the emerging opportunities in tokenized real estate, fractionalized Ginnie Mae securities, and the importance of research before investing. The conversation is highly practical—covering everything from budgeting to Roth IRAs, 401(k) matches, brokerage accounts, credit consolidation, and asset protection through trusts and wills. Lisa stresses empowerment through education and long-term wealth building. Purpose of the Interview 1. To introduce Lisa Mulrain’s financial literacy and legal services mission The interview showcases how Legacy Building LLC helps clients improve credit, manage debt, understand investments, and plan estates. 2. To educate listeners about emerging financial trends Lisa explains tokenized real estate, fractional Ginnie Mae securities, and policy changes that create new wealth-building opportunities. 3. To emphasize financial empowerment for underserved communities She focuses on shifting money mindsets, breaking cycles of scarcity, and building generational wealth. 4. To highlight the importance of estate planning She stresses that wills, trusts, and powers of attorney are foundational—not optional. 5. To offer actionable investing and credit strategies Listeners gain practical tools to start improving their finances immediately. Key Takeaways 1. Financial literacy begins with mindset Before fixing credit, individuals must understand their past beliefs about money and scarcity.Many financial mistakes originate from “lack mentality.” 2. Credit repair requires root-cause analysis Lisa teaches clients to: Identify how they fell into debt Negotiate with creditors Remove charge-offs when possible Avoid repeating harmful financial behaviors 3. Estate planning is essential for everyone—not just older adults A proper estate plan includes: A trust (primary document) A “pour-over” will for missed assets Healthcare proxies & POAs Instructions for managing assets during incapacity or after death Common tragedies—Prince, Aretha Franklin, Michael Jackson—show how lack of planning complicates estates. 4. Invest intentionally and consistently Key investment tools Lisa recommends: Maximize 401(k) contributions, especially employer matches Favor S&P 500 index options in retirement plans Fund a Roth IRA for tax-free growth Open brokerage accounts with established firms (e.g., Schwab, Fidelity) Buy fractional shares to invest even with small amounts Focus on time in the market, not timing the market 5. Tokenized real estate and fractionalized Ginnie Mae securities are groundbreaking Lisa explains how changes in federal policy and crypto infrastructure enable new low-barrier investment opportunities—such as Ginnie Mae-backed fractional securities for as little as $50. 6. Research, research, research Before buying any stock, investors should monitor: Long-term trends Earnings calls Layoffs (strategy vs. crisis) Market cycles Influential investors’ moves 7. Legacy Building LLC merges financial education + legal protection Her dual firms allow clients to: Learn how to build wealth Legally protect their assets Create generational stability 8. Wealth building requires discipline—not brand-driven spending She warns against sinking money into luxury goods without appreciating assets to match. Notable Quotes (All pulled directly from the transcript.) On why she does this work “Helping people has always been at my core.” “I wanted to get involved in finance because that was the one central factor that made the difference between the haves and the have nots.” On mindset & credit “Let’s examine your money mindset.” “We adopt a lack mentality… we already start from a place of ‘we don’t have it.’” On estate planning “Whatever you’ve accumulated… you don’t have a plan.” “It could take years for it to go through probate.” “Your trust is the main document.” On investing “You are leaving money on the table if you don’t get that 401(k) match.” “Don’t time the market… it’s about time in the market.” “Scare money don’t make money.” On financial habits “Be diligent in your acquisitions.” “You cannot make any money if you are not investing. Period.” On opportunities in new investment tech “Tokenized real estate is very new and novel… real physical assets backing crypto.” “Ginnie Mae securities are now eligible for fractionalized shares… with guaranteed repayment.” #SHMS #STRAW #BESTSupport the show: https://www.steveharveyfm.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Lisa Mulrain. Summary of the Interview On Money Making Conversations Masterclass, Rushion McDonald interviews Lisa Mulrain—CEO of Legacy Building LLC, a financial literacy and legal services entrepreneur with more than 30 years of federal government experience as a securities attorney. Lisa’s mission is to empower individuals and small businesses through financial education, credit repair, debt management, estate planning, and investment strategy. The interview highlights her transition from government attorney to entrepreneur, the purpose behind Legacy Building LLC, and the unique combination of her legal expertise and financial coaching. She breaks down how underserved communities can close knowledge gaps, develop stronger money mindsets, repair credit, invest wisely, and protect assets through estate planning. She also explains the emerging opportunities in tokenized real estate, fractionalized Ginnie Mae securities, and the importance of research before investing. The conversation is highly practical—covering everything from budgeting to Roth IRAs, 401(k) matches, brokerage accounts, credit consolidation, and asset protection through trusts and wills. Lisa stresses empowerment through education and long-term wealth building. Purpose of the Interview 1. To introduce Lisa Mulrain’s financial literacy and legal services mission The interview showcases how Legacy Building LLC helps clients improve credit, manage debt, understand investments, and plan estates. 2. To educate listeners about emerging financial trends Lisa explains tokenized real estate, fractional Ginnie Mae securities, and policy changes that create new wealth-building opportunities. 3. To emphasize financial empowerment for underserved communities She focuses on shifting money mindsets, breaking cycles of scarcity, and building generational wealth. 4. To highlight the importance of estate planning She stresses that wills, trusts, and powers of attorney are foundational—not optional. 5. To offer actionable investing and credit strategies Listeners gain practical tools to start improving their finances immediately. Key Takeaways 1. Financial literacy begins with mindset Before fixing credit, individuals must understand their past beliefs about money and scarcity.Many financial mistakes originate from “lack mentality.” 2. Credit repair requires root-cause analysis Lisa teaches clients to: Identify how they fell into debt Negotiate with creditors Remove charge-offs when possible Avoid repeating harmful financial behaviors 3. Estate planning is essential for everyone—not just older adults A proper estate plan includes: A trust (primary document) A “pour-over” will for missed assets Healthcare proxies & POAs Instructions for managing assets during incapacity or after death Common tragedies—Prince, Aretha Franklin, Michael Jackson—show how lack of planning complicates estates. 4. Invest intentionally and consistently Key investment tools Lisa recommends: Maximize 401(k) contributions, especially employer matches Favor S&P 500 index options in retirement plans Fund a Roth IRA for tax-free growth Open brokerage accounts with established firms (e.g., Schwab, Fidelity) Buy fractional shares to invest even with small amounts Focus on time in the market, not timing the market 5. Tokenized real estate and fractionalized Ginnie Mae securities are groundbreaking Lisa explains how changes in federal policy and crypto infrastructure enable new low-barrier investment opportunities—such as Ginnie Mae-backed fractional securities for as little as $50. 6. Research, research, research Before buying any stock, investors should monitor: Long-term trends Earnings calls Layoffs (strategy vs. crisis) Market cycles Influential investors’ moves 7. Legacy Building LLC merges financial education + legal protection Her dual firms allow clients to: Learn how to build wealth Legally protect their assets Create generational stability 8. Wealth building requires discipline—not brand-driven spending She warns against sinking money into luxury goods without appreciating assets to match. Notable Quotes (All pulled directly from the transcript.) On why she does this work “Helping people has always been at my core.” “I wanted to get involved in finance because that was the one central factor that made the difference between the haves and the have nots.” On mindset & credit “Let’s examine your money mindset.” “We adopt a lack mentality… we already start from a place of ‘we don’t have it.’” On estate planning “Whatever you’ve accumulated… you don’t have a plan.” “It could take years for it to go through probate.” “Your trust is the main document.” On investing “You are leaving money on the table if you don’t get that 401(k) match.” “Don’t time the market… it’s about time in the market.” “Scare money don’t make money.” On financial habits “Be diligent in your acquisitions.” “You cannot make any money if you are not investing. Period.” On opportunities in new investment tech “Tokenized real estate is very new and novel… real physical assets backing crypto.” “Ginnie Mae securities are now eligible for fractionalized shares… with guaranteed repayment.” #SHMS #STRAW #BESTSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Let's unpack a truth most people don't want to admit: the thing you're avoiding is action. When you leave inaction untouched, it does not sit quietly. It grows. It drains you. And it quietly reshapes your life through mental drag, stress, and procrastination. Unaddressed conversations don't sit still. Ignored decisions don't pause. Delayed action doesn't disappear. It compounds. It leaks energy, creates anxiety, and slowly trains your nervous system to stay stuck. In this episode, Troy introduces the Bison Theory, a counterintuitive truth rooted in real behavior: while most animals run away from storms and stay trapped in them longer, bison run straight into the storm, shortening how long they suffer. This episode isn't about hype or grit for grit's sake. It's about why facing the thing you're avoiding is the fastest path to transformation, and how movement, not certainty, is what breaks the loop. If you've felt the weight of indecision, the drag of unfinished business, or the mental exhaustion of too many open loops, this conversation will feel uncomfortably familiar in the best way.This Episode Covers:Why avoidance is active, not neutral, and how it quietly compounds stressHow “direction determines duration” when it comes to pain and changeWhy facing the storm creates momentum even before clarity shows upHow anticipation of pain often hurts longer than the pain itselfThe real reason action restores energy faster than motivation ever willHow to stop negotiating with reality and start reclaiming agencyWhy transformation begins the moment you turn toward what you've been running fromBeyond The Episode Gems:Subscribe To My New Weekly LinkedIn Newsletter: Strategize. Market. Grow.Buy My Book, Strategize Up: The Blueprint To Scale Your Business: StrategizeUpBook.comDiscover All Podcasts On The HubSpot Podcast NetworkGet Free HubSpot Marketing Tools To Help You Grow Your BusinessGrow Your Business Faster Using HubSpot's CRM PlatformSupport The Podcast & Connect With Troy: Rate & Review iDigress: iDigress.fm/ReviewsFollow Troy's Socials @FindTroy: LinkedIn, Instagram, Threads, TikTokSubscribe to Troy's YouTube Channel For Strategy Videos & See Masterclass EpisodesNeed Growth Strategy, A Keynote Speaker, Or Want To Sponsor The Podcast? Go To FindTroy.com

Takeaways:The three-step process includes buy, finance, operate, and exit.Understanding your exit strategy is crucial for real estate success.Be intentional with your buy right criteria to ensure value addition.Market analysis is essential for determining property value and potential.Operational efficiency can significantly impact the success of a real estate investment.Financing options vary and should align with your investment strategy.Building a business mindset is key to successful real estate investing.Utilizing data and market insights can enhance decision-making.Exit strategies can include selling, refinancing, or holding properties long-term.Every real estate deal should be evaluated through a strategic lens.   We're here to help create real estate entrepreneurs... About Jake & Gino: Jake & Gino are multifamily investors, operators, and owners who have created a vertically integrated real estate company. They control over $350M in assets under management. Connect with Jake & Gino here --> https://jakeandgino.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The global economy is shifting into a "run-it-hot" inflationary growth phase driven by political incentives, energy demand, and the need to manage unsustainable debt and here is how to profit on it. The U.S. is deliberately favoring high growth and persistent inflation to inflate away debt and support asset prices ahead of midterms, even as official data and climate narratives are treated with skepticism. Today we talk about how governments historically deal with excess debt, why inflation plus growth is the most politically viable path, and how this environment favors commodities, real assets, and cyclicals over overvalued big tech. Markets are rotating, not simply "risk-on/risk-off," so you should be wary against blindly sticking with what worked in the past. Stay flexible as policy volatility, geopolitical shifts, and changing economic forces reshape the investment landscape. We discuss...  Energy policy is rapidly shifting in favor of expansion as tech-driven demand makes energy security a political priority, sidelining prior climate and regulatory concerns. The "run-it-hot economy" framework argues the U.S. is intentionally pursuing high growth alongside persistent inflation to manage excessive sovereign debt and support asset prices. With midterms approaching, political incentives favor policies that keep markets strong, reduce visible costs like energy and housing, and maintain public confidence rather than fiscal austerity. Inflation and growth together are framed as the most realistic way for governments to inflate away debt without triggering default or severe political backlash. Historical economic regimes are outlined to show how different inflation and growth combinations favor different asset classes. The current environment resembles an inflationary boom, which historically benefits commodities, real assets, and stores of value. Big tech and innovation-led assets are seen as potential underperformers in an inflationary, rotational market after years of dominance. Market leadership is narrowing and rotating, with small caps, mid caps, and non-U.S. markets showing stronger early-year performance. The S&P 500's heavy concentration in a small number of tech stocks increases risk as leadership weakens. Investors are cautioned against blindly rebalancing or clinging to past winners without reassessing changing tailwinds and headwinds. Fraud reduction and spending audits may improve trust and optics but are unlikely to materially fix long-term debt problems. Energy's small weight in major indexes is highlighted as a potential mispricing given its economic importance. Seasonal market patterns suggest near-term volatility is likely even within a broader bullish rotation. Investors must adapt portfolios to evolving macro regimes rather than assume past strategies will continue to work.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/how-to-profit-785 

Two-time Emmy and Three-time NAACP Image Award-winning, television Executive Producer Rushion McDonald interviewed Lisa Mulrain. Summary of the Interview On Money Making Conversations Masterclass, Rushion McDonald interviews Lisa Mulrain—CEO of Legacy Building LLC, a financial literacy and legal services entrepreneur with more than 30 years of federal government experience as a securities attorney. Lisa’s mission is to empower individuals and small businesses through financial education, credit repair, debt management, estate planning, and investment strategy. The interview highlights her transition from government attorney to entrepreneur, the purpose behind Legacy Building LLC, and the unique combination of her legal expertise and financial coaching. She breaks down how underserved communities can close knowledge gaps, develop stronger money mindsets, repair credit, invest wisely, and protect assets through estate planning. She also explains the emerging opportunities in tokenized real estate, fractionalized Ginnie Mae securities, and the importance of research before investing. The conversation is highly practical—covering everything from budgeting to Roth IRAs, 401(k) matches, brokerage accounts, credit consolidation, and asset protection through trusts and wills. Lisa stresses empowerment through education and long-term wealth building. Purpose of the Interview 1. To introduce Lisa Mulrain’s financial literacy and legal services mission The interview showcases how Legacy Building LLC helps clients improve credit, manage debt, understand investments, and plan estates. 2. To educate listeners about emerging financial trends Lisa explains tokenized real estate, fractional Ginnie Mae securities, and policy changes that create new wealth-building opportunities. 3. To emphasize financial empowerment for underserved communities She focuses on shifting money mindsets, breaking cycles of scarcity, and building generational wealth. 4. To highlight the importance of estate planning She stresses that wills, trusts, and powers of attorney are foundational—not optional. 5. To offer actionable investing and credit strategies Listeners gain practical tools to start improving their finances immediately. Key Takeaways 1. Financial literacy begins with mindset Before fixing credit, individuals must understand their past beliefs about money and scarcity.Many financial mistakes originate from “lack mentality.” 2. Credit repair requires root-cause analysis Lisa teaches clients to: Identify how they fell into debt Negotiate with creditors Remove charge-offs when possible Avoid repeating harmful financial behaviors 3. Estate planning is essential for everyone—not just older adults A proper estate plan includes: A trust (primary document) A “pour-over” will for missed assets Healthcare proxies & POAs Instructions for managing assets during incapacity or after death Common tragedies—Prince, Aretha Franklin, Michael Jackson—show how lack of planning complicates estates. 4. Invest intentionally and consistently Key investment tools Lisa recommends: Maximize 401(k) contributions, especially employer matches Favor S&P 500 index options in retirement plans Fund a Roth IRA for tax-free growth Open brokerage accounts with established firms (e.g., Schwab, Fidelity) Buy fractional shares to invest even with small amounts Focus on time in the market, not timing the market 5. Tokenized real estate and fractionalized Ginnie Mae securities are groundbreaking Lisa explains how changes in federal policy and crypto infrastructure enable new low-barrier investment opportunities—such as Ginnie Mae-backed fractional securities for as little as $50. 6. Research, research, research Before buying any stock, investors should monitor: Long-term trends Earnings calls Layoffs (strategy vs. crisis) Market cycles Influential investors’ moves 7. Legacy Building LLC merges financial education + legal protection Her dual firms allow clients to: Learn how to build wealth Legally protect their assets Create generational stability 8. Wealth building requires discipline—not brand-driven spending She warns against sinking money into luxury goods without appreciating assets to match. Notable Quotes (All pulled directly from the transcript.) On why she does this work “Helping people has always been at my core.” “I wanted to get involved in finance because that was the one central factor that made the difference between the haves and the have nots.” On mindset & credit “Let’s examine your money mindset.” “We adopt a lack mentality… we already start from a place of ‘we don’t have it.’” On estate planning “Whatever you’ve accumulated… you don’t have a plan.” “It could take years for it to go through probate.” “Your trust is the main document.” On investing “You are leaving money on the table if you don’t get that 401(k) match.” “Don’t time the market… it’s about time in the market.” “Scare money don’t make money.” On financial habits “Be diligent in your acquisitions.” “You cannot make any money if you are not investing. Period.” On opportunities in new investment tech “Tokenized real estate is very new and novel… real physical assets backing crypto.” “Ginnie Mae securities are now eligible for fractionalized shares… with guaranteed repayment.” #SHMS #STRAW #BESTSteve Harvey Morning Show Online: http://www.steveharveyfm.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

➡️ Want To Learn More About Partnering With Me at eXp (Get all my Training & Coaching For Free) Schedule a Zero Pressure, Fully Confidential Zoom Call with me: https://go.oncehub.com/PartnerwithJoshuaSmithGSD   ➡️ Connect With Me On Social Media: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JoshuaSmithGSD  Instagram: https://instagram.com/joshuasmithgsd/   About Joshua Smith: -Licensed Realtor/Team Leader Since 2005 -Voted 30th Top Realtor in America by The Wall Street Journal -NAR "30 Under 30" Finalist -Named Top 100 Most Influential People In Real Estate -Top 1% of Realtors/Team Leaders Worldwide -6000+ Homes Sold & Currently Selling 1+ Homes Daily -Featured In: Forbes, Wall Street Journal, Inman & Realtor Magazine -Realtor, Team Leader, Coach, Mentor

Lee Ann is back from Nairobi, Kenya, and she's sitting down to share the heart-stretching details of her trip with Compassion International. We dive into the organization's history and pull back the curtain on how their child sponsorship program truly functions on the ground. Lee Ann addresses the big questions about financial transparency while describing the life-changing work she witnessed firsthand at local centers in the heart of Africa. You'll hear of the moment she met her sponsored child face-to-face for the very first time. This journey wasn't just about travel; it was about seeing hope around the world.THE SHOW NOTES!We would love for you to join us in changing the lives' of children and families around the world. The work of Compassion is full of integrity, holistic, and full of hope! If you would like to sponsor a child, please use this link!Thanks for being a part of our podcast community! You can follow Lee Ann and Matt on Instagram to keep up with happenings in between episodes. Click the link in their name to follow!If you've been around the podcast for any length of time, and you're in our podcast community, we would love for you to join us on our Patreon. Patreon is where you go to support us, get more TAGD content, download exclusive episodes and recipes, and get behind the scenes looks at what's going on with Lee Ann and Matt. Thanks for joining us!If you know anything about us at all, you know a good cup of coffee is important to us - especially “frothy coffee.” Click here to grab some of our These Are Good Days blend coffee - we created this blend and couldn't love it more!Also, we have merch! Grab a tshirt, hoodie, baseball cap, or other swag to show your love for the podcast, or just remind yourself that These Are Good Days! No doubt, we all need a reminder to embrace the joy in the moment, no matter what's going on around us. Check out our storefront here!Thank you to our sponsor Walnut Creek Foods and Walnut Creek Cheese and Market. Walnut Creek Foods creates products that are carried in stores all over the United States. Click here to see where you can locate a store near you that carry their incredible products. If getting packages on your doorstep is more your speed, click here to see all the Walnut Creek Cheese and Market products that can be shipped right to your door!

This week on the Oakley Podcast, host Jeremy Kellett interviews Martin Garsee about the realities of truck driver training, the mission of the National Association of Publicly Funded Truck Driving Schools (NAPFTDS), and the evolving landscape of industry regulations. The discussion covers training program structures, student recruitment, job placement, lifestyle challenges for drivers, the importance of professionalism and customer service, and adapting to new rules like English proficiency and automatic transmissions. Key takeaways include the value of networking in education, the need for realistic career expectations, the critical role of thorough, ongoing training for both new and experienced truck drivers, and so much more. Key topics in today's conversation include:Welcome to Today's Episode and Thank You to Sponsors (0:58)  Martin Shares His Background and Experience (4:46)  Discussing the National Association of Publicly Funded Truck Driving Schools (9:17)  Explaining Recruitment and Student Advertising Approaches 14:13)  Truck Driver Training Program Structure and Classroom Details (17:08)  Challenges of Over-the-Road Versus Local Trucking Work (19:21)  Turnover and Misconceptions in the Trucking Industry (21:02)  New Government Regulations and English Language Rules (25:21)  The Impact of Regulations on Training and Industry Operations (29:55)  Job Placement, Recruiters, and Company Training Partnerships (31:18)  Realities and Stages of Early Career Truck Drivers (35:06)  Importance of Professionalism and Personal Appearance (37:36)  Customer Service and Working With Clients in Trucking (40:06)  Shift to Automatic Transmissions in Trucking Programs (42:07)  How to Get Involved and Contact Information for Martin and Associations (44:42)Oakley Trucking is a family-owned and operated trucking company headquartered in North Little Rock, Arkansas. For more information, check out our show website: podcast.bruceoakley.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Market anxiety is driving investors back toward large-cap growth stocks as small caps face a wave of volatility despite their strong start to the year. Charles speaks  with FOX Business' SlateStone Wealth Chief Market Strategist Kenny Polcari to discuss why investors are flocking to safety, the impact of potential credit card rate caps, and why small-cap biotech and construction remain vital plays for future growth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of The New Warehouse Podcast, Oscar Gladman, Vice President of Parcel Distribution at Crane Worldwide Logistics, unpacks how parcel strategy has evolved and what shippers need to understand moving forward. With more than 20 years of experience across parcel, e-commerce, and enterprise logistics, Gladman offers a grounded look at how consumer behavior, technology, and carrier dynamics have reshaped the parcel landscape.From the rise of residential delivery to the growing complexity of carrier relationships, the conversation explores what has changed, what hasn't, and how companies can stay flexible in an increasingly unpredictable market.Find more information about our sponsors here: Peak Technologies, Masterplan Communications, TGW Logistics, YMX Logistics Learn more about The Brecham Group here. Follow us on LinkedIn and YouTube.Support the show

Our Head of Asian Gaming & Lodging and Hong Kong/India Real Estate Research Praveen Choudhary discusses the first synchronized growth cycle for Hong Kong's major real estate segments in almost a decade.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Praveen Choudhary, Morgan Stanley's Head of Asian Gaming & Lodging and Hong Kong/India Real Estate Research. Today – a look at a market that global investors often watch but may not fully appreciate: Hong Kong real estate. It's Tuesday, January 27th, at 2pm in Hong Kong.Why should investors in New York, London, or Singapore care about trends in Hong Kong property? That's easy to answer. Because Hong Kong remains one of the world's most globally sensitive real estate markets. When [the] cycle turns here, it often reflects – and sometimes predicts – broader shift in liquidity, capital flows, and macro sentiment across Asia. And right now, for the first time since 2018, all three major Hong Kong property segments – residential prices, office rents in the Central district of Hong Kong, and retail sales – are set to grow together. That synchronized upturn hasn't happened in almost a decade. What's driving this shift? Residential real estate is the engine of this turnaround. Prices have finally bottomed after a 30 percent decline since 2018, and 2026 is shaping out to be a strong year. We actually expect home prices to grow more than 10 percent in 2026, after going up by 5 percent in 2025. And we think that it will grow further in 2027. There are three factors that give us confidence on this out-of-consensus call. The first one is policy. Back in February 2024, Hong Kong scrapped all extra stamp duty that had made it tougher for mainland Chinese or foreign buyers to enter the market. Stamp duty is basically a tax you pay when buying property, or even selling property; and it has been a key way for [the] government to control demand and raise revenue. With those extra charges gone, buying and selling real estate in Hong Kong, especially for mainlanders, is a lot more straightforward and penalty-free. In fact, post the removal of the stamp duty, [the] percentage of units that has been sold to mainlanders have gone to 50 percent of total; earlier it used to be 10-20 percent. Why is it non-consensus? That is because consensus believes that Hong Kong property price can't go up when China residential outlook is negative. In mid-2025, consensus thought that the recovery was simply a cyclical response to a sharp drop in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate, or HIBOR.But we believe the drivers are supply/demand mismatch, positive carry as rental go up but rates go down, and Hong Kong as a place for global monetary interconnection between China and the world that's still thriving. Second, demand fundamentals are strengthening. Hong Kong's population turned positive again, rising to 7.5 million in the first half of 2025. During COVID we had a population decline. Now, talent attraction scheme is driving around 140,000 visa approvals in 2025, which is double what it used to be pre-COVID level. New household formation is tracking above the long‑term average, and mainland buyers are now a powerful force. The third factor is affordability. So, after years of declines, the housing prices have come to a point where affordability is back to a long‑term average. In fact, the income versus the price is now back to 2011 level. You combine this with lower mortgage rates as the Fed cut moves through, and you have pent‑up demand finally returning. And don't forget the wealth effect: Hang Seng Index climbed almost 30 percent in 2025. That kind of equity rebound historically spills over into property buying. As the recovery in residential real estate picks up speed, we're also seeing a fresh wave of optimism and actions across Hong Kong office and retail markets. So big picture: Hong Kong property market isn't just stabilizing. It's turning. A 10 percent or more residential price rebound, a Central office market finding its footing, and an improved retail environment – all in the same year – marks the clearest green lights this market has seen since 2018.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our guest on the podcast today is Leyla Kunimoto. Leyla is the founder and editor of Accredited Investor Insights, a newsletter that helps investors navigate private markets. She writes about private equity, private credit, and real estate, focusing on the practical realities of evaluating alternative investments from the limited partner perspective. Leyla began investing in public markets in 2001 and expanded into private markets in 2020, with current holdings spanning public equities, real estate, and alternatives. She started her career in finance and management consulting after graduating from the University of Washington. She also worked in advisory services at a Big Four accounting firm.BackgroundLeyla KunimotoAccredited Investor InsightsPrivate Equity, Private Credit, and Private Real Estate“Inside the Black Box: What First Brands Teaches Us About CLO Risk,” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, Oct. 2, 2025“Jamie Dimon Says Private Credit Is Dangerous—and He Wants JPMorgan to Get In on It," by Alexander Saeedy, WSJ.com, July 13, 2025“PIK Is Whispering. Are You Listening?” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, June 12, 2025.“Private Credit Interval Fund,” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, Aug. 24, 2025.“Non-Traded BDC Meets Mr. Market,” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, Nov. 20, 2025“The Problem With PME,” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, Oct. 9, 2025.“Private Equity 101: What Every LP Should Know,” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, July 31, 2025.“Private Markets in 2026: What Changes, What Sticks,” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, Dec. 28, 2025.“It's NAV … Until You Want Liquidity,” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, Jan. 8, 2026.“Why Vanguard, Champion of Low-Fee Investing, Joined the ‘Private Markets' Craze,” by Matt Wirz and Anne Tergesen, WSJ.com, July 2, 2025“The Golden Doodle of Private Markets: Evergreen Secondaries” by Leyla Kunimoto, AccreditedInsight.com, Oct. 30, 2025.Books MentionedRich Dad Poor Dad: What The Rich Teach Their Kids About Money That the Poor and Middle Class Do Not!, by Robert KiyosakiThe Intelligent Investor: The Definitive Book on Value Investing, by Benjamin GrahamMastering The Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side, by Howard Marks Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today I sit down with two of my best friends, Moses Kagan and Rhett Bennett to reflect on how ReSeed has evolved since their first appearance (ep. 278) on the show three years ago.   ReSeed is on a mission to back the next generation of elite real estate operators. We unpacked what has actually happened since launch, how their original vision has held up in practice, and what they have learned by deploying real capital across multiple markets and operators.  We also dug into how they think about underwriting, operator selection, asset management intensity, and navigating a shifting multifamily landscape. It was a candid look at what it really takes to build a disciplined, long term real estate platform in today's market. We discuss: • How ReSeed's original thesis has played out after deploying over $100M across multiple operators • What they look for in emerging operators and how the cohort selection process has evolved • Why discipline and patience mattered during a slow deal environment and when opportunities finally opened up • How they approach underwriting, leverage, and long-duration capital in different markets • The realities of asset management, property management, and execution risk at smaller deal sizes This episode is for investors, operators, and anyone interested in building durable real estate businesses with long term alignment and disciplined capital deployment. Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro(00:04:01) - ReSeed's journey and evolution(00:17:14) - Profile and selection of operators(00:25:10) - Partnership and capital structure(00:37:39) - Due diligence and deal approval process(00:40:51) - Cohort integration and support(00:42:55) - Real estate market overview(00:43:22) - Market opportunities and challenges(00:50:41) - Market fatigue and seller dynamics(00:51:20) - Operational challenges and opportunities(01:01:50) - Property management and asset management(01:11:36) - Construction management and budgeting(01:15:06) - Capital allocation(01:23:34) - Closing remarks Support our Sponsors Ramp: https://ramp.com/powers Collateral Partners: https://collateral.com/fort Chris on Social Media: Chris on X: https://x.com/fortworthchris Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thefortpodcast LinkedIn: https://bit.ly/45gIkFd Watch POWERS on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3oynxNX Visit our website: https://www.powerspod.com/ Leave a review on Apple: https://bit.ly/45crFD0 Leave a review on Spotify: https://bit.ly/3Krl9jO  POWERS is produced by https://www.johnnypodcasts.com/

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Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate how important the next few days are for the rally as Mega Cap Earnings, the Fed Decision and a potential government shutdown hang over stocks. Plus,  the desk reacts to a letter from Activist Investor Dan Loeb and his firm Third Point calling for a new board for Costar Group, citing "weak oversight." And later, we hit the Setup on some Committee names reporting earnings tomorrow. Investment Committee Disclosures Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This could open up homebuying for millions of Americans. The question is: Is it worth it? A new housing proposal from the Trump administration adds yet another lever that first-time buyers can pull to pay for their first house. But it's got financial advisors sweating.  We're back with another headline episode, talking about recent moves shaking up the housing market. First, some good news from Redfin that shows the housing market is actually getting more… affordable? That's right. A substantial decline in housing costs may be just the start as homebuyer purchasing power grows year over year. We're on the right track…but will it continue? Next, why mortgage rates went back up after Trump's proposed $200B bond-buying exercise—when many expected rates to keep falling. Using a 401(k) to buy a home? One new proposal could make it penalty-free, opening up access to hundreds of thousands of dollars for average Americans. Finally, the big investor ban begins, but here's what the actual executive order says. In This Episode We Cover Penalty-free 401(k) down payments? The On the Market panel is sharply divided Affordability sees a massive win, but will it keep improving? Why mortgage rates didn't keep declining after Trump's $200B bond purchase proposal President Trump signs the long-awaited big investor ban—but will it actually change anything for homebuyers? And So Much More! Links from the Show Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise Join BiggerPockets for FREE Join us at the BiggerPockets Conference October 2-4 in Orlando. Buy tickets Sign Up for the On the Market Newsletter Find Investor-Friendly Lenders On the Market 392 - Trump's Housing Proposals Could Work, There's Just One Problem Redfin: Monthly Housing Costs Start the Year Down 5%, the Biggest Decline in Over a Year Reuters: Trump's mortgage-backed bond purchases not moving needle on housing costs HousingWire: Tapping a 401(k) for homeownership is risky business, experts say TIME: Trump Is Moving to Bar Wall Street Firms From Buying Single-Family Homes. Dave's BiggerPockets Profile Henry's BiggerPockets Profile James' BiggerPockets Profile Kathy's BiggerPockets Profile Grab Dave's Book, "Real Estate by the Numbers" Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-394 Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this video, I break down exactly how to run comps in a shifting market, how I personally analyze deals today, and how you should be underwriting properties so you don't overpay or get stuck holding inventory.   You'll learn: -Why sold comps matter less in changing markets -How to use active listings to gauge true competition -How pending sales reveal real-time demand -Why days on market can kill your profits -How to adjust your ARV and offers conservatively   Whether you flip houses, wholesale deals, or buy rental properties, this framework will help you make smarter offers and stay profitable even when the market isn't booming!   Questions? Contact me greg@velocityhousebuyers.com Instagram @grego_37

Gold and silver are surging as investors rush into safe-haven assets, driving sharp volatility across global markets—and raising new questions about what it means for Bitcoin's price action. In this livestream, we break down why precious metals are spiking, what the surge in volatility signals about macro stress and investor confidence, and whether Bitcoin is being treated as a risk asset or a competing store of value in this environment.

In this episode, I sit down with Dave Collum. We dive deep into why the financial legends who warned us about insane market bubbles back in 2015 might not have been wrong – they might have just been early. We're talking about an economy at 35,000 feet with its engines on fire, and the solution has been to climb to 45,000 feet. That doesn't fix the problem. This is raw, unfiltered truth about corruption, fake jobs, market insanity, and why keeping your head on a swivel has never been more important. ––– Offers & Discounts –––

What is needed to truly move the needle on health? Create more research, more trials on nutrient density, more advocacy? Or, as Martin Reiter, founder of RARE argues, create the next regen Nestlé or Unilever: a 100 billion (yes, that's a B) regenerative consumer goods conglomerate, with only better-for-you and better-for-the-planet brands. The demand is there; the current incumbents are unable to innovate in regen, as they are built on chemical ingredients.The story usually goes like this: a group of people sets up a food (or cosmetics) brand that is better for you and better for the planet. Much better ingredients, honest sourcing, actually healthy, not UPF, etc. Then they need some money and raise funds, keep building, scaling, and at some point, 10–15 years down the road, the founders get tired and want to take some money off the table. and their existing investors need to get out and return money to their LPs.Currently, their only option is to sell to an incumbent, which then unfortunately usually screws it up. They start tweaking the ingredients, squeezing farmer margins, etc. The original founders leave after a few frustrating years.Is there a better way? A permanent home for regen, good-for-you, good-for-the-planet brands? A regen Nestlé or Unilever, if you will?More about this episode.==========================In Investing in Regenerative Agriculture and Food podcast show we talk to the pioneers in the regenerative food and agriculture space to learn more on how to put our money to work to regenerate soil, people, local communities and ecosystems while making an appropriate and fair return. Hosted by Koen van Seijen.==========================

Looking for more answers to your home cooking questions? Every month, we'll gather on Zoom for "Around the Table with Food Friends: Live Q&A". Together, we'll connect in real time as a community and share recipes, tips, and solutions to everyday cooking struggles and successes. Join in by becoming a paid subscriber on our Substack today. Sign up here!***What if a seasonal winter produce haul could be as versatile, delicious, and exciting as a flat of berries in peak summer? This week we're sharing our 10 must-have winter farmers' market produce picks, and the recipes to go with them.By the end of this episode you'll:Discover a viral sweet potato recipe that will change how you make it foreverLearn simple and quick techniques for coaxing sweetness and depth from veggies like parsnips, turnips, and cabbageFind out about our go-to winter weeknight meals, like a sheetpan chicken dinner full of greens and a rustic cabbage skillet dishTune in now to learn how the winter farmers' market might surprise you, and how to turn seasonal produce into satisfying meals you'll want to dig into all season long!***LinksSweet Potato:New technique for the best whole roasted japanese sweet potatoes by Jamesyworld, + the viral TikTok cheese stuffed version from The Kitchen And our favorite Carla Lalli Music recipe for steamed sweet potatoes with tahini butter for NYT Cooking (unlocked)Squash:Zucotte, garlicky braised squash, by Whistling Train Farm in Kent, WA Bok Choy/Tatsoi:Sheetpan Scallion Chicken with Bok Choy by Kay Chunfrom for NYT Cooking (unlocked)We also like to use bok choy and tastoi instead of lettuce in saladsCabbage:Venetian smothered cabbage, “Verze Sofegae” And a shout out to our favorite cabbage soup from Six Seasons by Joshua McFadden and Martha HolmbergLeek:Two takes on a leef tart, one straightforward Leek puff pastry tart from It's A Veg World Afterall, or a stunning upside down leek tart from Live Eat LearnAnd we love Braised leeks from Fox and Briar too!Turnips:

Markets head into a critical earnings stretch. Julian Emanuel of Evercore ISI lays out why the setup may still be favorable for tech as the sector faces its next major test. Michael Ha of Baird on trading health care as insurers post their worst day in years. Seth Goldstein of Morningstar on the Tesla setup ahead of earnings. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This program explores the collision of tariffs, sustainability, design business acumen and shifting client expectations, offering a roadmap for navigating the volatility of the 2026 design landscape. Recorded live at Design Hardware in Los Angeles, I gathered a panel of industry leaders to dissect the economic and social forces shaping interior design as we head into 2026. Featuring Eva Hughes (Black House Beige), Shelly Sandoval (The Lauzon Collective), Rachel Grachowski (RHG Architecture), and Priya Vij (Hapny Home), the conversation confronts the “chaos” of the current market—from tariff-induced supply chain disruptions to the critical shortage of skilled labor. Designer Resources Pacific Sales Kitchen and Home. Where excellence meets expertise. TimberTech – Real wood beauty without the upkeep The discussion pivots from the technical challenges of “designing for disaster” and uninsurability to the creative opportunities found in circular economies and intentional sourcing. The panelists argue for a shift away from “fast fashion” interiors toward a “friendliness” of durability, prioritizing materials that pass the “grandparent test” of longevity. Ultimately, the episode emphasizes that in a volatile market, the most valuable currencies are transparency, deep vendor relationships, and educating clients on the true cost of craftsmanship. The “Friendliness” of Durability: A move toward “legacy” materials—like solid brass hardware and high-quality hardwood—that age gracefully and avoid the landfill, countering the disposable nature of current trends. Supply Chain as Design Driver: How tariffs and stock volatility are forcing firms to adopt “high-low” budgeting and pre-purchase models (buying and storing materials early) to protect projects from price surges. Designing for Disaster: The reality of rebuilding in fire-prone zones (like Altadena and the Palisades) is driving a demand for non-toxic, fire-resistant materials and a “circular economy” approach where building products can return to the earth safely. The Labor Crisis: A candid look at the “graying” of the trades; as master craftsmen retire without a new generation to replace them, the industry faces a loss of institutional knowledge and execution capability. Intentionality Over “Modern”: The panel discusses abandoning vague buzzwords like “wellness” and “modern” in favor of deep-dive mood boarding and psychological profiling to align client expectations with reality. Resources Design Hardware: designhardware.com Black House Beige (Eva Hughes): blackhousebeige.com RHG Architecture + Design (Rachel Grachowski): rgarchitecture.com Happy Home (Priya Via): hapnyhome.com The Lauzon Collective (Shelly Sandoval): lawsoncollective.com Convo By Design: convobydesign.com Thank you, Eva, Rachel, Shelly and Priya for taking the time to share your thoughts. Thank you to my incredible partner sponsors; Pacific Sales Kitchen and Home, TimberTech and Best Buy. Their sponsorship of Convo By Design allows me to seek out sublime design, stories from beyond the work itself and showcase unique personalities chasing new ideas and changing the way we think about design and architecture.. And present it to you so please give them an opportunity on your next project. Thank you for listening and sharing this journey of ours. 2026 marks thirteen years of constant publication of the podcast with over 700 interviews and three million downloads, streams, and listens.  Please keep those guest suggestions coming as well as thoughts about where you would like the show to record live. Convo By Design at Outlook and on Instagram, Convo X Design, with an “X”. Thanks again for listening, until next time, be well, focused and driven so you can rise above the chaos. -CXD

Our Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd discusses Morgan Stanley's key investment themes for this year and how they're influencing markets and economies.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research. Today – the four key themes that will define markets and economies in 2026. It's Monday, January 26th, at 10am in New York. If you're feeling overwhelmed by all the market noise and constant swings, you're not alone. One of the biggest hurdles for investors today is really figuring out how to tune out the short-term ups and downs and focus on the bigger trends that are truly changing the world. At Morgan Stanley Research, thematic analysis has long been central to how we think about markets, especially in periods of extreme volatility. A thematic lens helps us step back from the noise and really focus on the structural forces reshaping economies, industries, and societies. And that perspective has delivered results. In 2025, on average, our thematic stock categories outperformed the MSCI World Index by 16 percent and the S&P 500 by 27 percent. And this really reinforces our view that long-term themes can be powerful drivers of alpha. For 2026, our framework is built around four key themes: AI and Tech Diffusion, The Future of Energy, The Multipolar World, and Societal Shifts. Now three of these themes carry forward from last year, but each has evolved meaningfully – and one of our themes represents a major expansion on our prior work. First, the AI and Tech Diffusion theme remains central, but has clearly matured and evolved. In 2025, the focus was on rapid capability gains. In 2026, the emphasis shifts to non-linear improvement and the growing gap between AI capabilities and real-world adoption. A critical evolution is our view that compute demand is likely to exceed supply meaningfully, even as software and hardware become more efficient. As AI use cases multiply and grow more complex, the infrastructure – especially computing power – emerges as a defining constraint. Next is The Future of Energy, which has taken on new urgency. Energy demand in developed markets, long assumed to be flat, is now inflecting upwards. And this is driven largely by AI infrastructure and data centers. Compared with 2025, this theme has expanded from a supply conversation into one focused on policy. Rising energy costs are becoming increasingly visible to consumers, elevating a concept we call the ‘politics of energy.' Policymakers are under pressure to prioritize low-cost, reliable energy, even when trade-offs exist, and new strategies are emerging to secure power without destabilizing grids or increasing household bills. Our third theme, The Multipolar World, also builds on last year but with sharper edges. Globalization continues to fragment as countries prioritize security, resilience, and national self-sufficiency. Since 2025, competition has become more clearly defined by access to critical inputs – such as energy, materials, defense capabilities, and advanced technology. Notably, the top-performing thematic categories in 2025 were driven by Multipolar World dynamics, underscoring how geopolitical and industrial shifts are translating directly into market outcomes. Now the biggest evolution comes with our fourth key theme – which we call Societal Shifts – and this expands on our prior work on Longevity. This new framework captures a wider range of forces shaping societies globally: AI-driven labor disruption and evolution, aging populations, changing consumer preferences, the K-economy, the push for healthy longevity, and challenging demographics across many regions. These shifts increasingly influence government policy, corporate strategy, and economic growth – and their impact spans far more industries than investors often expect. Now crucially these themes don't operate in isolation. AI accelerates energy demand. Energy costs shape politics. Politics influence supply chains and national priorities. And all of this feeds directly into societal outcomes: from employment to consumption patterns. The power of thematic investing lies in understanding these intersections, where multiple forces reinforce one another in underappreciated ways. So to sum it up, the most important investment questions for 2026 aren't just about growth rates. They're about structure. Understanding how technology, energy, geopolitics, and society evolve together may be the clearest way to see where opportunity, and risk, are truly heading. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

“A slow season in the market doesn't mean your purpose is paused. It means your leadership is being refined.” — Dr. Darnyelle Jervey Harmon This episode is powered by The Ascension Archetype Quiz. When the market feels unpredictable, many CEOs misdiagnose the problem. They think they need a new funnel, a new hire, or a new niche—but what they really need is a new frequency. If you've been pivoting out of panic, tightening your offers, or questioning your calling, this episode will feel like a deep exhale. You'll learn why external instability always surfaces internal misalignment—and why your next breakthrough won't come from reacting faster, but from regulating deeper. We'll explore the difference between reactive leadership and resonant leadership, and how to lead from the truth of who you are when the world around you is moving too fast to catch your breath. If you've been feeling like growth is slowing, clients are hesitating, and your old playbook isn't landing the way it used to, this conversation will reorient you. We are not in a "figure it out and force it" economy. We are in a “be it and embody it” era—and this episode unlocks the exact calibration high-level entrepreneurs must make to stay relevant, safe, and successful as the external landscape continues to change. This isn't about tactics. It's about leadership identity, soul leadership, and how to stay in integrity with your mission even when the market doesn't respond how you expect. The most dangerous thing a 7-figure CEO can do right now? Keep leading like it's 2021. Here's the truth: The real gap isn't in your strategy—it's in your state. Market uncertainty isn't a threat. It's a mirror. And what it's reflecting back is the need for a new way of leading—one that integrates your divine design, not overrides it. If you're looking for a permission slip to slow down, realign, and lead powerfully, this is it. You'll walk with he clarity to stop chasing “what's working” and start becoming the kind of leader who transcends market cycles. You'll understand how to lead with presence, why your personal alignment matters more than ever, and how to shift from reactive fear to embodied faith.  Grab your Move to Millions Podcast Notebook, a pen and your favorite beverage and listen in to discover: ✔ How to lead in a market that no longer rewards performance-based leadership ✔ How to shift from reactive offers to spiritually-aligned client attraction ✔ How to discern if your slowdown is divine strategy or fear in disguise ✔And so much more This episode is a call to Legacy-Led CEOs who have begun doubting themselves because the market isn't behaving. If you've internalized the slowdown, if you've lost confidence in your message or your momentum, this episode reaffirms your spiritual authority in the business space. You are not failing—the market is evolving. And you get to evolve with it, from alignment, not anxiety. This is your invitation to stop trying to control the market and start understanding what it's revealing. Listen in to reconnect with your inner compass, realign your leadership, and rise above the noise with spiritual strategy and embodied presence. Because scaling in this season isn't about doing more—it's about being more anchored. Resources Mentioned: Take the Move to Millions Ascension Archetype Quiz Apply for a Soul + Strategy Conversation Move to Millions: The Proven Framework To Become a Million Dollar CEO With Grace & Ease Instead of Hustle & Grind by Dr. Darnyelle Jervey Harmon – Get Your Copy Join the Move to Millions Facebook Group for ongoing support and community engagement – Join Now Move to Millions 90-Day Business Growth Planner – Get Your Planner Five Powerful Quotes from the Episode: “The market didn't change its mind about you. It just called you higher.” “The way you hold leadership in uncertainty determines how long you stay in it.” “Just because the external is unclear doesn't mean your internal has to be.” “You don't need to respond to pressure with panic. You can respond with presence.” “Your clients don't need a new offer. They need a more regulated you.” Questions to Ask Yourself While Listening: Where have I been adjusting my strategy out of fear instead of faith? What parts of my leadership identity are out of sync with how I'm showing up? How is the market's volatility triggering my internal instability? What am I making this season mean about me? What would change if I trusted that this slowdown is a sacred setup?   Want more of Darnyelle? Personal Brand Website: https://www.drdarnyelle.com Company Website: https://www.incredibleoneenterprises.com All Things Move to Millions Website: https://www.movetomillions.com Social Media Links: Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/darnyellejerveyharmon Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/darnyellejerveyharmon Twitter/X: https://www.x.com/darnyellejervey LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/darnyellejerveyharmon  Links Mentioned in the Episode: Movetomillions.com MovetoMillionsGroup.com Move to Millions Quiz Learn More About Sanctuary   Subscribe to the Move to Millions Podcast: Listen on iTunes Listen on Google Play Listen on Stitcher Listen on iHeartRadio Listen on Pandora   Leave us a review Are you subscribed to my podcast? If you're not, I want to encourage you to do that today. I don't want you to miss an episode. I'm adding a bunch of bonus episodes to the mix and if you're not subscribed there's a good chance you'll miss out on those.   Now if you're feeling extra loving, I would be really grateful if you left me a review over on iTunes, too. Those reviews help other people find my podcast and they're also fun for me to go in and read. Just click here to review, select “Ratings and Reviews” and “Write a Review” and let me know what your favorite part of the podcast is. Thank you!

Bitcoin is trading in the shadow of Washington dysfunction as government shutdown risks collide with the stalled Crypto Clarity Act, keeping markets on edge. In this livestream, we break down how political gridlock, delayed regulation, and policy uncertainty are impacting Bitcoin's price action, liquidity, and investor confidence—and why clarity in Washington may matter more than any chart pattern right now.

The Super Bowl is SET! Super Bowl 60 kicks off two weeks from now in Santa Clara, CA! How should you approach betting the Super Bowl between the Seattle Seahawks & the New England Patriots? Join Kelly Stewart and Teddy Covers for The Opening Line Report as we dissect the Super Bowl LX betting markets opening betting lines!Intro 00:00Conference Championship Reactions 1:00AFC Championship 1:58NFC Championship 10:45Super Bowl LX Opening Lines: Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots 16:44Super Bowl Prop Betting 25:50EMERGENCY BETTING ALERT 28:18LIVE Questions & Answers 30:44

This week, Phil breaks down the latest inflation data and previews a big week for earnings, sharing his insights on current market conditions and what to expect in the week ahead.

US equity futures firmer with S&P pointing slightly up. US two and ten-year yields both down. Dollar is mostly weaker with biggest move versus yen. Oil up. Gold extends to new record high above $5k/oz. Silver above $100. Industrial metals mostly higher. Bitcoin lower. In latest trade developments, President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Canada if it makes deal with China. Trump is unclear on the deal he is referring to, though follows PM Carney's recent visit to China where he and Xi agreed to tariff concessions on China EVs and Canada agricultural products. Market is mostly ignoring Trump's latest tariff threat. Meanwhile, sources said India plans to reduce tariffs on Europe auto imports to 40% from as much as 110%, as part of free trade deal that could be announced as soon as Tuesday. UK PM Starmer is leading a delegation of business leaders in Beijing trip this week to enhance trade relationship.Companies Mentioned: Merck, Revolution Medicines, USA Rare Earth, SoftBank Group

Do I need social media to have a successful business?That is a question I am sure you ask yourself every time you have to sit down and post to socials. While yes, social media can play a huge role in marketing your small business, I am here to tell you - you have options. In this episode of The Content Queen Podcast I am giving you 3 things you can do instead of relying just on socials. If you LOVED this episode, make sure you share this on your Instagram stories and tag us @contentqueenmariah⁠⁠⁠LEARN THE DETAILS OF A CONTENT STRATEGY WITH MY FREE AUDIO GUIDE⁠⁠⁠KEY EPISODE TAKEAWAYS

Ricky Blanco Saavedra is a Sr. Executive Assistant at Viva Exec, supporting the CTO and Head of Go-to-Market at Shippo.In this episode of The Leader Assistant Podcast, Ricky talks about discarding the “I'm just the EA” mindset, and stepping into a leadership mindset, how to fight impostor syndrome, and more.Show Notes -> leaderassistant.com/360 --In-person meeting planning can be a lot to manage. That's where TROOP Planner comes in. TROOP Planner is built to make life easier for busy assistants like yourself. Whether you're organizing an executive offsite, department meeting, or team retreat, TROOP keeps it simple, fast, and organized.Visit leaderassistant.com/troop to learn more! --Are you ready to level up? Enroll in The Leader Assistant Academy at leaderassistant.com/academy to embrace the Leader Assistant frameworks used by thousands of assistants. --Eliminate manual scheduling with YouCanBookMe by Capacity's booking links, automated reminders, and meeting polls. Sign up for a FREE trial -> leaderassistant.com/calendar.More from The Leader Assistant... Book, Audiobook, and Workbook -> leaderassistantbook.com The Leader Assistant Academy -> leaderassistantbook.com/academy Premium Membership -> leaderassistant.com/membership Events -> leaderassistantlive.com Free Community -> leaderassistant.com/community

This hour, we open the phone lines so that you can ask Dr. Karl Payne any questions you have on the topic of spiritual warfare. We will tackle questions like: Can demons read our minds? Is a crucifix needed for an exorcism? Does casting out a demon require a professional exorcist? Learn to separate biblical Truth from Hollywood’s made-up ‘theology’ on the very real subject of spiritual warfare.Become a Parshall Partner: http://moodyradio.org/donateto/inthemarket/partnersSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textIf you are looking for one soft plastic worm that covers every bass fishing situation, look no further.  This video breaks down why the Cast Fishing Nova worm is extremely versatile and can be used with multiple rigging options and techniques.  We cover how to fish it, when to throw it, and why it works for largemouth, smallmouth and spotted bass across all conditions and seasons.In this episode, we're covering:

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On this episode of the NBA Report, CP The Fanchise is joined by Andrew Salop, One Two Combo to react to the latest NBA trade news and rumors:Can the Warriors land Giannis?Jonathan Kuminga to the Miami Heat?What does the market look like for Ja Morant and LaMelo Ball?Sleeper teams in the East & West who could boost their championship odds with a trade.Subscribe to the Youtube channel - https://www.youtube.com/@TheNBAReportJoin TNR Discord to chat & call into the show https://bit.ly/nbarepSupport the show

Enjoy this special feed drop of our sister show, In This Economy?!If you're in the market for a new truck or car, you might face sticker shock!The average price for a new vehicle in the Canadian market is now more than $60,000, and used vehicle prices are on the rise, too. So what options are you left with if you're looking for a new ride but can't afford the inflated price tag? How do tariffs play into the list price? And how will Prime Minister Mark Carney's trade deal with China affect the EV market?Host Mike Eppel speaks to Barish Arkurek, VP Insights and intelligence for Autotader.ca, to discuss what consumers can expect. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us:Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca Or @thebigstory.bsky.social on Bluesky

Buying a rental property in another city, county, or state? Then, you're going to need boots on the ground in that market to help find, fix, and manage your investment property. How do you make sure you've got the right people in place from many miles away? We've got the tips you need in today's episode!   Welcome to another Rookie Reply! Tony and Ashley are back with three more questions from the BiggerPockets Forums, the first of which comes from an investor who's struggling to find meaningful cash flow in their market. Should they hold out for that “home-run deal” or settle for something less if it means getting that first property under their belt? Next, we'll hear from someone who has enough money to buy a primary home or an investment property. We'll weigh both options and even share an investing strategy that allows you to have both!   Finally, if you're investing out of state, you'll need a team of trusted experts in that market. But finding these people is easier said than done. Stick around as we share where to look, questions to ask, and some red flags to avoid at all costs! Looking to invest? Need answers? Ask your question here! In This Episode We Cover How to build your own out-of-state investing team in any market (step by step) Red flags to avoid when vetting agents, lenders, contractors, and more  Whether you should buy an investment property before your primary residence How to buy a rental property with low money down using the house hacking strategy The “minimum” cash flow you should accept when analyzing rental properties And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/rookie-669⁠ Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Brad Rowland and Stephen Tolbert co-host Episode 325 of the Hammer Territory Podcast. The show focuses on the starting pitching market for the Atlanta Braves in the wake of Freddy Peralta and Mackenzie Gore being traded elsewhere. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Carl Quintanilla, Contessa Brewer, and Michael Santoli kicked off the hour with a look at the volatile week - before getting longtime market vet Jeremy Siegel's take on the action. Plus: tech in focus as Intel shares slump post-results, and software stocks continue to see scrutiny... Hear key analysis - and stock picks - around both stories this hour. Also in focus: the East Coast bracing for a massive winter storm over the weekend. What it means for energy - and how it could be a key test at the intersection of AI and travel.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What Signals Say 2026 Could Outperform a Strong 2025 for Retail Real Estate?2026 might be the year retail real estate finally turns momentum into pricing power. Chris Ressa and Karly Iacono open with a confident call: next year will outperform an already-strong 2025, and the data is starting to line up behind it.Holiday sales climbed roughly 4 percent year-over-year, outpacing inflation and reinforcing a simple truth: consumers keep spending, even when sentiment wobbles. The conversation breaks down the “K-shaped” economy, where higher-income shoppers drive discretionary growth while value-focused and necessity-based retail remains resilient across every income bracket.The hosts point to sharper inventory discipline and steadier supply chains as quiet margin drivers, giving retailers more control over pricing and fewer forced discounts. On the real estate side, fewer major bankruptcies and limited space givebacks are tightening supply, setting the stage for a more landlord-driven market. The result: upward pressure on rents, stronger net operating income, and potential value gains as interest rates ease.They also look ahead to demand catalysts, from global sporting events and America's 250th anniversary to a new wave of store openings coming out of late-2025 leasing. While risks remain, from AI-driven job shifts to geopolitical uncertainty, the core bet is clear: tighter supply, resilient consumers, and disciplined operators could make 2026 a defining year for retail real estate.What You'll HearThe data points behind the call that 2026 tops a strong 2025Why consumer spending keeps winning over sentimentHow the K-shaped economy is reshaping value, necessity, and discretionary retailTighter supply, fewer bankruptcies, and what that means for landlord leverageInventory discipline and supply chains as quiet drivers of pricing powerNOI, rents, and value: how the real estate math is shiftingTraffic catalysts ahead, from global events to a new wave of store openingsThe key risks still in play, from AI disruption to geopolitical shocksChapters00:00 — The Bold Call for 2026Chris and Karly open with a confident prediction that 2026 will outperform a strong 2025 for retail real estate and explain why they're leading with the conclusion.01:20 — Holiday Sales vs. Consumer SentimentA breakdown of holiday spending growth and why real consumer behavior matters more than surveys and headlines.03:55 — The K-Shaped Economy in RetailHow higher-income and value-focused consumers are shaping different lanes of retail performance across categories.05:55 — Inventory, Pricing, and Margin ControlWhy better inventory discipline and steadier supply chains are giving retailers more leverage on pricing.08:20 — Tariffs, Supply Chains, and StabilityWhat's changed since early 2025 and why supply volatility feels less like a headline risk for 2026.09:45 — Bankruptcies, Space, and Expansion PressureHow fewer large retail failures are tightening available space and reshaping store rollout strategies.12:10 — The Landlord's Market and Rent...

In this episode of Power Producer Shoptalk, host David Carothers kicks off the new year with a deep dive into the shifting dynamics of the reinsurance market and what producers need to do to prepare for a softening market. He emphasizes that the "bad news" hard market—where price shopping is rampant—is giving way to a "good news" soft market, where incumbents are harder to displace. David also outlines his aggressive goal to write $1 million in new business revenue in 2026, promising to "show, not tell" by documenting every step of the process. The core of this episode focuses on the Total Cost of Risk (TCOR) sales conversation: how to have it, why it works best in the $100k-$250k premium space, and why getting a Letter of Engagement before going to market is non-negotiable for serious producers. Key Highlights: The Shift from Hard to Soft Market David discusses the recent reinsurance renewals and the early signs of a softening market. He warns producers that the strategies used during the hard market (competing on price when incumbents deliver bad news) will no longer work. In a soft market, incumbents deliver rate decreases, making it harder to get appointments. Now is the time to "sew your seeds" and pivot your messaging. The "Show, Don't Tell" 2026 Challenge David announces his personal goal to write $1 million in new business revenue in 2026. He commits to documenting the entire journey—prospecting, meetings, and closing—in real-time, shifting his content focus back to the trenches of Florida Risk Partners to prove that his methods work in today's environment. Mastering the Total Cost of Risk (TCOR) Conversation This episode is a masterclass on the TCOR sales process. David explains why he never goes to market without a signed Letter of Engagement on middle-market accounts. He breaks down the ideal premium sweet spot ($100k-$250k) where this conversation is most effective, noting that accounts in this range are often hearing about TCOR and broker selection for the first time. Qualifying the Decision Maker David shares a critical soft-skill tactic for identifying the true decision maker without offending your point of contact. Instead of bluntly asking "Are you the decision maker?", he suggests asking: "Is there anyone else who is typically part of the decision-making process that we should include in our next meeting?" This question preserves relationships while ensuring you aren't wasting time pitching to someone who can't sign the check. Stop "Quoting and Hoping" The episode challenges the traditional "quote and hope" strategy of waiting 90 days out to shop a renewal. David argues that this method commoditizes the producer. Instead, he advocates for a consultative approach that secures the client's commitment before doing the work, using a Letter of Engagement to validate the relationship and take control of the market. Connect with: David Carothers LinkedIn Kyle Houck LinkedIn Visit Websites: Power Producer Base Camp Killing Commercial Crushing Content Power Producers Podcast Policytee The Dirty 130 The Extra 2 Minutes

Seth and Sean discuss if incidents of Framber's erratic behavior in games and press conferences is hindering his free agency, and if they'd be on board for bringing him back to the Astros.

Seth and Sean lay out the top storylines for the NFL Conference Championship games this weekend, do the final Circle of SWARM of the 2025 season, and discuss Framber's erratic behavior at points hindering his free agency.

Planet Money has teamed up with the company Exploding Kittens to make a board game inspired by the legendary economics paper The Market for Lemons. We've decided we want a mass-appeal party game that quietly sneaks in the economics, so that we can report from inside a world that no other Planet Money project has entered: the real shelves at real big box retail stores. We have a great game mechanic and a set of rules. Now all we need is a good name and theme. Turns out, that is way harder and way higher stakes than any of us could have imagined. In the third episode of our series, we learn the importance of a good game name and theme and try to come up with one for our game. Find our previous episodes in the board game series, here and here.Pre-order the Planet Money book and get a free gift. / Subscribe to Planet Money+Listen free: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, the NPR app or anywhere you get podcasts.Facebook / Instagram / TikTok / Our weekly Newsletter.This episode of Planet Money was hosted by Kenny Malone and Erika Beras. It was produced by James Sneed and edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Willa Rubin, and engineered by Cena Loffredo and Kwesi Lee. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Protected Profits is about moving with Wisdom, not Ego. In the stock market, every dollar you put in is a seed, and God teaches us that a wise farmer doesn't just plant, HE protects the harvest. You don't leave your crops exposed to storms, and you don't leave your portfolio exposed to unnecessary risk. Stops, hedges, and position sizing aren't fear,.. they're faith in discipline. They're the financial equivalent of building your house on solid ground, not sand.GOD gives Opportunities, but HE also gives instructions. The Market rewards those who listen. Protected Profits is understanding that preservation comes before multiplication. You don't chase blessings,... You Manage Them. When you learn to protect what GOD has already put in your hands, the Market starts to work with you instead of teaching you Painful Lessons.Join our Exclusive Patreon!!! Creating Financial Empowerment for those who've never had it.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

All eyes have been on President Trump's address at the World Economic Forum. Michael Zezas, our Deputy Global Head of Research, and Ariana Salvatore, our Head of Public Policy Research, talk about potential implications for policy and the U.S. outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing our takeaways from President Trump's speech in Davos and what we think it means for investors. It's Wednesday, January 21st at 1pm in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, over the last couple of weeks, there's been a lot of news about policy proposals coming out of the U.S. and from President Trump around affordability, as well as some geopolitical events around the U.S. relationship with Europe. And investors really started looking towards President Trump's speech at Davos, which he gave earlier today, as a potential vehicle to learn more about what these things would actually mean and what it might mean for the economic outlook and markets. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, that's right. I think specifically investors were looking for the President to focus on affordability proposals pertaining to housing and some commentary around Greenland. Remember last weekend, President Trump proposed a 10 percent tariff on some EU countries related to this topic specifically. So obviously that did feature in his speech. What did we learn and what do you think are the most important things for markets to know? Michael Zezas: So, maybe the most important headline we got was President Trump appearing to take off the table the use of force when it comes to an attempt to acquire Greenland. And that would seem to, therefore, take off the table the idea of a broader rupture in the U.S.-EU relationship. Both the security relationship vis-a-vis NATO, as well as the economic relationship which could have been ruptured with higher tariffs on both sides, anti coercion measures around trade, and that would be of obvious economic importance. Europe is obviously a major importer of U.S. goods. Not as big as Canada or Mexico, but still pretty significant. So, anything that would've created higher barriers between the two would've had meaningful economic consequences for the U.S. outlook. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, that's right. And we've been saying that the bilateral trade framework agreement between the U.S. and the EU is actually pretty tenuous in nature, right? So, this doesn't yet have formal backing from the European Parliament. They, in fact, delayed a vote on this exact deal, kind of on the back of these Greenland headlines. So how are we thinking about, you know, what's been priced into markets and maybe what this could mean for something like the dollar going forward? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so it's important to point out that we're not out of the woods yet in terms of potential trade escalation on both sides around the Greenland issue. However, it seems like that bigger tail problem of a decoupling might have gone away. And so, what you saw in markets so far today was that some of the actions over the past, kind of, 24-48 hours with equity market weakness. You know, the S&P was down about 2 percent yesterday. The dollar was weaker. It seemed like more term premium was being baked into the U.S. Treasury market. A lot of that appears to be unwinding today. Said more simply, the idea of a kind of riskier investment environment for the U.S. is getting priced out. At least today, it's getting priced out. And it all makes sense when you think about if there was less of a relationship between the U.S. and Europe, there would be less demand for U.S. dollar holdings overseas. And that's the type of thing that should manifest in a weaker dollar and higher term premia, steeper yield curves for U.S. Treasuries. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, and that dovetails really nicely with the work that we just put out with the FX team, kind of highlighting some of the policy factors as push factors for countries to move away from the dollar. We think that's happening marginally. We think it's not really a risk in the immediate term, but some of these policy drivers can actually create dollar weakness over the medium to longer term. Michael Zezas: Of course, to the extent that we get news that this is a head fake and that tensions are re-escalating, you'd expect some of those trades to start pushing markets back in the other direction again. Now, President Trump also talked quite a bit about domestic policy, largely about affordability, and some of the policy proposals he's put forward over the last couple of weeks. Was there any new details that you heard that you think are meaningful for investors? Ariana Salvatore: So, the short version is nothing really new, and the reality is that a lot of housing policy in particular is actually out of the hands of the executive. And even if you do see congressional action here, it's likely to be marginal. A lot of housing policy is done at the state level, and even bipartisan efforts to address both the demand and the supply sides of the equation have faced some resistance in Congress. That doesn't mean they can't reemerge. But we would need to see a very large decline in the mortgage rate to get noticeable effects on economic indicators like GDP, inflation and employment. And in terms of what this means for the housing outlook, the programs talked about so far should push sales marginally higher but have little impact on our expectations for our home prices. Now it's important to note that the president didn't spend that much time of the speech talking about housing affordability proposals, as was telegraphed ahead of time. And since that, the head of the NEC Kevin Hassett has said they plan to announce more details on housing in the coming days. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, on the two pieces here that investors have really focused on, which are capping institutional ownership of single-family homes and potentially capping interest rates on credit cards, it sounded like the president talked about he would go to Congress for authorization on those things.Is that right? And if so, how plausible is it that Congress could actually deliver those authorities? Ariana Salvatore: So, here's where I think it's really critical to understand the role that Congress has to play in all of these policy initiatives. So, there are not only political constraints, but there are also procedural ones. If we were to see Republicans kind of push for this 10 percent cap, for example, that likely would have to go through the reconciliation process. And that process, as we know, comes with a number of limitations because something like a 10 percent cap wouldn't have much of an impact on the federal budget in terms of revenues or outlays. We think it's most likely not going to be permissible under that framework. So, understanding that the first filter here is Congress, and the second filter is these procedural limitations that exist in and of themselves is really important context for understanding the president's proposals on housing.Michael Zezas: So, is it fair to say the starting point is that we think Congress is unlikely to act on these things? And what would you have to see that might make you think differently? Ariana Salvatore: I think where we're looking for signals from Republican leadership in Congress – because as of right now, it's been our thinking that a second reconciliation bill ahead of the midterm elections is not feasible. It's too difficult politically, it takes a lot of time, but if you see enough of a push from the president, we do think that can start to become feasible. Again, we have to keep in mind these procedural limitations and where the rest of the party falls on these issues. But I think they're possible if the administration pushes hard enough for them.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, even though we don't think it's likely, we obviously want to prepare in case that happens. When it comes to housing, it seems like our team has said institutional ownership of single-family housing is quite low, 1 percent or less. And so, restrictions there wouldn't necessarily change the game on home prices. What about the 10 percent cap on credit card interests? What are the broader ramifications that our colleagues see? Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, so I'd say generally speaking, when it comes to consumer credit affordability policies, our strategists think that these could actually translate to a benefit for consumer ABS performance because they tend to be a tailwind for a consumer that's struggled with rising delinquencies and defaults post-COVID, right? However, there are some specific proposals like this cap on credit cards, and that's likely going to have a negative consequence because it's going to limit credit access for consumers, especially for those carrying a balance. So, probably a little bit counterintuitive to the overall affordability agenda that the administration's trying to go for. Michael Zezas: So, lots of interesting stuff coming out of the speech. Lots of things we have to track over the next few weeks and months. It certainly doesn't seem like it's going to be a boring year two of the Trump term for investors. Ariana Salvatore: Certainly not, and not for us either. Michael Zezas: Well, Ariana, thanks for finding the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.