REFIRE Comment

Blockchain is starting to filter through to the German real estate market, with many in the industry hoping to gain a major competitive edge if they embrace it head-on. Some real estate investors are starting to dip their toes in the water by launching funds via blockchain-powered platforms.

Multifamily investment reached a new high of EUR40bn across eight European markets, including Germany, tracked by Savills last year, the highest ever recorded and up 27% on 2017.

This was the week that a shaken Angela Merkel told her fellow citizens in a Munich beer hall that the EU must now be prepared to look after itself, and cast aside any expectations of solidarity with erstwhile partners the UK and the US. After she’d had several days of enduring Donald Trump’s presence at close quarters, we were struck by the decisive tone in Merkel’s manner. The last vestiges of hope in salvaging something of the old order were – reluctantly – being wiped away. A line was being drawn. Merkel and her ally Horst Seehofer, the Bavarian prime minister, raised their beer glasses in a toast, and buried any past hatchets between them. Their CDU/CSU alliance sent out a strong message of intent as to what we can expect in the run-up to September’s national elections. Barring a disaster, Merkel is on course to win again.

Currently, crowdfunding regulation in Germany states that it is exempt from the kind of regulatory controls imposed on senior lending and publically-raised equity, which are heavily regulated. At the moment, if the total capital raised by a crowdfunding project does not exceed €2.5m, it is not necessary to have an authorized investment memorandum. Individual investors are not allowed to invest more than €10,000 in a crowdfunding project and it is ranked behind the senior loan tranche.

In response to a request on the part of Germany’s Alliance ’90 and Green Party, the German government has said that proposed solutions will be presented at the Finance Ministry’s conference on 19 October this year. The property transfer tax has been the subject of heated debate in Germany, because while private individuals have no choice but to pay it when they buy a home, many companies dodge it by availing themselves of share deal exemptions when they buy properties. It is estimated by the German government that of all the residential portfolios comprising more than 800 units transacted between 1999 and 2016 in Germany, share deals were used in 71% of cases. In 35% of deals, buyers acquired less than 95% of shares but in 36% of deals, they actually acquired more than 95% of shares, according to the German government.

As Gary Lineker famously com- mented, “Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.” Nowadays, in the shadow of Brexit, the world of real estate is beginning to feel a little bit like that.

The latest MIPIM in Cannes was, by almost universal consent, one of the most mellow and easygoing in recent years, at least for German participants. The uninterrupted sunshine, the positive mood in the halls, the varied and frequently lively programme of seminars and panel discussions – all served to support an atmosphere that facilitated fruitful dialogue, despite the geopolitical uncertainties lurking in the wings, offstage.

Germany’s left-of-centre SPD , the junior partner in the governing coalition in Berlin with Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU grouping, has been at the forefront of a new drive to dampen the country’s residential housing boom, now entering its seventh year.

The big institutional players are all convinced that 2017 will see – yet again heightened demand for investment in real estate. This applies particularly to Germany, whose status as a safe haven has only strengthened as the number of economic imponderables elsewhere have multiplied.

One of the perks of editing a publication like REFIRE is the opportunity it affords your editor to hang out with people who can see into the future. Their relationship with their crystal ball, tea leaves, tarot cards, goats’ entrails or other favoured form of divination helps them steer an unerring path through the most turbulent cross-winds, knowing what’s likely to emerge on the other side.