Podcast appearances and mentions of ian cruickshanks

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Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Business Day TV — Ian Cruickshanks from the SAIRR chose a US Treasury ETF "What I would like to look at is an ETF with its major holdings in US Treasury. I think that they have come wholaping down with their yield from 1.8% to just over 1% in a matter of weeks. That is a huge move and perhaps it won’t be too much in the short term but I think with the outlook of the global markets and the global economy I really feel that the ETF is one of the last safe havens where it will accumulate funds."

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Join me in conversation with IRR Chief Economist, Ian Cruickshanks, we try forecast on the upcoming Budget Speech to be delivered by Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni. We look at the good, the bad & the ugly...and give analysis on what the Finance Minister ought to say if we are to pull SA out of the economic mess and reform it. www.youtube.com

SA Institute of Race Relations — Join me in conversation with IRR Chief Economist, Ian Cruickshanks, we try forecast on the upcoming Budget Speech to be delivered by Finance Minister, Tito Mboweni. We look at the good, the bad & the ugly...and give analysis on what the Finance Minister ought to say if we are to pull SA out of the economic mess and reform it. www.youtube.com

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Business Day TV — Ian Cruickshanks from SAIRR chose an unlisted US Corporate Bond ETF as his stock pick of the day and Mark du Toit from Oyster Catcher Investments chose Quilter Plc Cruickshanks said: "I believe that interest rates are going to come down so you need some sort of gearing aimed towards that. I also think that the rand is going to remain under pressure indefinitely so therefore I'd look to investing in another market. I'd look at an ETF, trying to get an investment in corporate bonds, where I think there's an opportunity to go with them as they come down maybe from a 5%-6% to 2% or 3% there could be very good capital values." du Toit said: "I'm picking Quilter tonight. There has been a lot of a noise today about the trade or possibly, the delay in the trade resolution between America and China but you've also got the UK election next week and I think that post the election (we hope that it goes the way of the Conservative Party and not the Labour Party) but I think if it goes to the conservative party it will be positive and then we will start to see resolution of Brexit shortly thereafter. So Quilter is the asset and advice management business that was spun out of Old Mutual and I think it's well positioned in that it has the second business tied advisor force in the UK. They sold their Life Assurance business and then returned three hundred million pounds to shareholders in either a special dividend or most likely share buybacks which I think will be a nice underpinning for the share price. I think the British Pound could strengthen in the in the medium term post the Brexit resolution, so I think the prospects are good."

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Business Day TV — Ian Cruickshanks from SAIRR chose US Corporate Bond ETF as his stock pick of the day and Rowan Williams from Nitrogen Fund Managers chose Rand Merchant Inv Hldgs. Cruickshank said: I'm still bearish on the rand and South African economy so any protection for that I'd go to a dollar priced ETF and would be happy to be there for a year or two on the S&P 500. Williams said: "I'm going for RMI and it's kind of hedging your bets, it's a holding company and it's also moved to a wider discount. It's actually got a mix of local assets which I guess is somewhat interest rate sensitive Discovery, Momentum, MTN and then also OUTsurance which is actually a fantastic asset and business and has sort of been in a little bit of a lull. So a bit of a mixed balance at a fairly good discount to NAV."​

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations

Business Day TV — Graeme Körner from Körner Perspective chose EPE Capital Partners Ltd as his stock pick of the day and Ian Cruickshanks from SAIRR chose US Corporate Bond ETF Cruickshanks said: "I would look certainly in dollar terms for an ETF on the US corporate bond market. I think that we are going to see rates cut even further and I think that that is going to mean a surge in the liquidity globally and that would have a big impact on that sort of market. It may be quite interesting that it may be the only really performing game in town." Körner said: "I've called Ethos Capital many times and if you look at the share price you'd say well there's evidence I have no idea what his doing. It started at ten bucks and today it got hits very late to R7,11 They released results earlier today, net asset value R11,39 so lets forget the R7,11 that was a bit of an anomaly. Even at R7,25/R7,30 it's sitting on approaching a 40% discount. It's not like the underlying portfolio is ridiculously valued, I think ebitda or multiple in the portfolio 6.9, comfortable levels of gearing. But for somebody who says okay well I believe in the Africa SA story and that good capital allocators in the private equity space will continue to do well, I think this team ticks those boxes. You get underlying exposure to many different funds in a portfolio of companies in one instrument and you know you must get the free pen and the 35% discount, so I think I can see no reason why this company, frankly, should trade on more than a 15% discount so theoretically you could get a 20% kicker there."​

Ian Cruickshanks - Chief Economist at the Centre for Risk Analysis at the SA Institute of Race Relations.

Business Day TV — Deryck Janse Van Rensburg from Anchor Securities and Ian Cruickshanks from the SAIRR both chose cash as their stock picks of the day Janse van Rensburg said: "If I was going to look for a stock to buy it would typically be in the US at this stage of the game, there is a gap between US Treasuries and where the markets are at the moment - it does concern me. I am a buyer of the US market but I just don't think we are at levels that I would like to see just yet. I'm keeping a close eye on things like Microsoft and Amazon but I'm keeping some powder dry, waiting, being patient and looking for an opportunity on a bit more of a pull-back." Cruickshanks said: "What can you say about an economy that produced between one and two hundred thousand jobs every month. It has to be the only game to play, in that respect from my point of view, I would take whatever I can out of SA markets and keep it in dollars, in cash in the US at the moment.

Business Day TV — Bright Khumalo from Vestact chose Tesla as his stock pick of the day and Ian Cruickshanks from the SAIRR chose cash. Khumalo said: "Tesla, they released their production update saying that they delivered 95 200 cars, that's more cars that they ever delivered, for example for their whole year of 2015. This is a new record, apart from the one we saw in the fourth quarter of 2018. This is going in the right direction, this year they are expecting to release between 300 000 and 600 000 cars that they are going to manufacture this year. I'm really excited about this company, no one expected this as there has been a lot of teething problems and over 80% of the cars that they now produce are the model 3s and the model s and x was around 17 000, which is not a lot but there is still demand for these luxury cars. These cars save the world, and I like the management team and I think there is a lot of upside surprises going forward." Cruishanks said: "I like to be sure of getting my investment back, I like security of capital at the moment so I would go for cash or a money market fund without a long deposit period. I think it is safety first at the moment. I'm not convinced that this rush we are having at the moment based on very low short term interest rates is sustainable.

Moneyweb Radio — The Classic Business Breakfast is the only dedicated morning business show in South Africa. Anchored by experienced broadcasters Natassia Arendse and Arabile Gumede the show ensures that listeners arrive at their office fully briefed on the main business-related issues of the day. They can be heard on Classic FM 102.7 FM between 7 and 8 on weekday mornings. It is also streamed live on Moneyweb.

Moneyweb Radio — The Classic Business Breakfast is the only dedicated morning business show in South Africa. Anchored by experienced broadcasters Natassia Arendse and Arabile Gumede the show ensures that listeners arrive at their office fully briefed on the main business-related issues of the day. They can be heard on Classic FM 102.7 FM between 7 and 8 on weekday mornings. It is also streamed live on Moneyweb.

Reserve Bank Governor, Lesetja Kganyago, has announced that the repo rate will remain unchanged at seven percent. This means that the prime lending rate remains steady at 10 point five percent. The move had been widely expected following Stats SA's announcement of better than expected inflation data. CPI slowed year on year to six point two percent in April. However Kganyago has voiced concern about the expected increases in food and fuel prices in the coming month. Ike Phaahla speaks to Ian Cruickshanks, Chief Economist at the South African Institute of Race Relations.