Podcasts about us treasuries

Fixed-income investors, bonds are rising to the occasion and looking attractive again. Their yields are higher, and they have delivered as diversifiers against stock sell-offs this year. Yet, uncertainty has muddled the outlook as the bond market seeks clarity about tariffs, inflation, and interest rates.Paul Olmsted covers US fixed-income strategies for Morningstar Research Services. The senior manager research analyst explains why you need bonds for a balanced portfolio.Let's start with how you're thinking about the bond market in 2025. Can you talk about what you have considered key moments this year? As a follow-up, what is at the core of the bond market's concerns?We're recording this episode on July 30th around 10:30am. The Fed is expected to announce their interest-rate decision this afternoon. Market watchers are predicting the Fed will hold rates steady. High interest rates pose a risk to bonds. What other risks should investors watch out for now? Some bond investors are seeking a “Powell hedge” due to expectations that Trump could oust the Fed Chair. What are they hedging against, and is this something everyday investors need to think about? What's the probability of Trump firing Powell before the Fed Chair's term ends in May 2026, and who would be the ideal candidate? We have talked about how the memory of the worst bond market ever in 2022 is still lingering. However, bonds served as diversifiers during stock sell-offs earlier this year. Why do you think bonds can't shake the bad rap?What's the optimal bond allocation in a diversified portfolio during a high-rate environment? Should investors focus more on whether their holdings are short- or long-term, or is credit quality a bigger issue?What are the best bonds for portfolio diversification?What's the takeaway for fixed-income investors for the rest of 2025? Read about topics from this episode.  Investors Should Embrace Elevated Bond Yields3 Principles to Invest By, Whatever Comes NextWhy the Fed's Independence Matters to Markets, the Economy, and Your Wallet4 Top-Performing High-Yield Bond FundsTariffs and Dollar Weakness Tested US ResilienceIncome Opportunities Remain at the Front End of the Yield Curve What to watch from Morningstar. Covered-Call ETFs Are Booming. But Not All Yield Is GoodThis Dividend Investing Strategy Deserves a Second LookMarket Volatility: Is Your Investment Portfolio Ready for a US-EU Trade Deal?Market Volatility: 4 Key Factors to Track in Q3 2025 Read what our team is writing.Paul OlmstedIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Todd, Will Cunliffe, and Edward Hayden-Briffett unpack the week that was in global markets. Markets are reacting to sweeping new trade deals - notably a major US-EU agreement involving zero tariffs and massive energy investments - while weak US and Eurozone PMIs, consolidating precious metals, and rising Japanese yields signal caution. Meanwhile, investors are withdrawing from US Treasuries amid political uncertainty, China's economy is under pressure despite upcoming stimulus, and global attention turns to a packed week of critical economic data releases. 

Luke Gromen: Why The World Is Shunning US Treasuries In Favor Of Gold Every once in a while in life, we're blessed to come across someone who is truly living their path and sharing their gift. And in terms of financial analysis, at the top of my list for a long time has been macro analyst Luke Gromen. Which made it a true honor to have him join us for a conversation, where he laid out in his typically brilliant, yet easy to understand fashion why the world is shunning the US treasury in favor of gold. Luke explains what the Trump administration tried to do, what they're now doing, and what he thinks they're ultimately going to have to do, whether they yet realize it or not. He also explains why we've reached the point where it's no longer easy to push off the consequences of decades of American policy and profligacy, and why some of the shifts we're seeing now are still just getting underway. And of course we also got Luke's thoughts on the silver market too. So if you're invested in gold and silver (or perhaps even more importantly if you're not), then I think you'll be really glad you've seen this call, and click the link to get started watching it now! - To get access to Luke's incredible research at The Forest For The Trees go to: https://fftt-llc.com - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Economists and policy advisers have said that it is a strategic necessity for China to further scale back holdings in United States government debt in order to safeguard national financial stability, amid waning confidence in the dollar-based system and persistent geopolitical tensions.经济学家和政策顾问表示，在对以美元为基础的体系的信心减弱和持续的地缘政治紧张局势下，中国进一步缩减对美国政府债务的持有是一种战略必要性，以维护国家金融稳定。To pursue a more balanced, controllable allocation of foreign exchange reserves, the country is also likely to increase investments in non-dollar assets, including financial instruments of its Asian trading partners and crucial resources such as gold, energy and food, they added.他们补充说，为了实现更平衡、更可控的外汇储备分配，中国还可能增加对非美元资产的投资，包括其亚洲贸易伙伴的金融工具以及黄金、能源和粮食等关键资源。Yu Yongding, an academic member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, called for China to continue reducing US government debt holdings in an orderly manner.中国社会科学院院士余永定呼吁中国继续有序减持美国国债。"The ideal approach would be to increase imports and utilize the excess foreign exchange reserves to purchase high-tech capital goods and strategic materials. This could require China to narrow its trade surplus, move toward a basic balance in the trade of goods and services, or even run a trade deficit for a while."“理想的做法是增加进口，利用多余的外汇储备购买高科技资本货物和战略物资。这可能需要中国缩小贸易顺差，实现商品和服务贸易的基本平衡，甚至在一段时间内出现贸易逆差。”"Extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures. We must closely monitor the US fiscal situation and prepare contingency plans to avoid being caught off guard," Yu said.余表示：“非常时期需要非常措施。我们必须密切关注美国财政状况，制定应急计划，避免措手不及。”。After stepping back from being the second-largest holder of US debt to third place in March, China further reduced its holdings of US Treasury securities in May by $900 million, to $756.3 billion, the lowest since February 2009, when the reading was $744.2 billion, according to the US Department of the Treasury.根据美国财政部的数据，中国在3月份从美国债务的第二大持有者退居第三位后，5月份进一步减少了9亿美元的美国国债持有量，至7563亿美元，为2009年2月以来的最低水平，当时该数字为7442亿美元。The reduction bucked the overall rebound of foreign holdings in US debt after a drop in April. Foreign holdings of US Treasury securities increased from April's $9.013 trillion to $9.046 trillion in May, with major US debt holders such as Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada increasing their holdings.这一减少抵消了外国持有的美国债务在4月份下降后的整体反弹。外国持有的美债从4月份的9.013万亿美元增加到5月份的9.046万亿美元，日本、英国和加拿大等主要美国债务持有者增加了持有量。Wang Peng, an associate researcher at the Beijing Academy of Social Sciences, said that China's holding cut in May—the third consecutive month of decrease despite other major holders' increased exposure—stems from a continued effort to optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserves.北京社会科学院副研究员王鹏表示，尽管其他主要持有者的敞口增加，但中国5月份的减持是连续第三个月下降，这源于持续优化外汇储备结构的努力。The aim is to reduce the risks of overreliance on US government debt and limit potential economic losses from geopolitical tensions, including the risk of asset freezes in the event of US sanctions, Wang said, adding that the move also reflects concerns about growing US fiscal deficits and uncertainty about the US economy.王表示，此举的目的是降低过度依赖美国政府债务的风险，并限制地缘政治紧张局势造成的潜在经济损失，包括在美国制裁的情况下冻结资产的风险。他补充说，此举也反映了人们对美国财政赤字不断增长和美国经济不确定性的担忧。Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the nation's central bank, has pointed to the risks associated with the US dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency, saying last month that US fiscal and financial regulatory problems could spill over, while the dollar could be weaponized in geopolitical conflicts.中国央行中国人民银行行长潘功胜指出了美元作为全球储备货币的主导地位所带来的风险，他上个月表示，美国的财政和金融监管问题可能会蔓延，而美元可能会在地缘政治冲突中被武器化。Guan Tao, global chief economist at investment bank BOCI China, said there is no immediate risk of a US sovereign debt crisis, as market demand for US Treasuries remains strong, and US Treasury yields could fall if the US Federal Reserve cuts rates later this year. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices.投资银行中银国际中国（BOCI China）全球首席经济学家关涛（Guan Tao）表示，目前没有美国主权债务危机的风险，因为市场对美国国债的需求仍然强劲，如果美联储今年晚些时候降息，美国国债收益率可能会下降。债券收益率与价格走势相反。But the deeper concern, Guan said, is US debt's long-term sustainability. If US government debt keeps expanding without a path to stabilization, it will eventually trigger problems.但关表示，更令人担忧的是美国债务的长期可持续性。如果美国政府债务继续扩大而没有稳定的道路，最终将引发问题。Credit ratings agency Moody's downgraded the US credit rating to Aa1 in May, citing runaway deficits, while the US administration's massive tax-and-spending bill, effective this month, could intensify such concerns, as it is forecast to increase US federal deficits by more than $3 trillion over the next decade.信用评级机构穆迪在5月份将美国信用评级下调至Aa1，理由是赤字失控，而美国政府本月生效的巨额税收和支出法案可能会加剧这种担忧，因为预计未来十年美国联邦赤字将增加3万亿美元以上。Chen Weidong, director of the Research Institute of Bank of China, said, "As the third-largest holder of US Treasuries, China must build a multilayered, systematic strategy to guard against mounting risks tied to US sovereign debt and the dollar-based financial system.中国银行研究院院长陈卫东表示：“作为美国国债的第三大持有者，中国必须建立一个多层次、系统的战略，以防范与美国主权债务和以美元为基础的金融体系相关的日益增长的风险。"This is not only vital for China's financial security, but also has far-reaching implications for the evolution of the global financial order," Chen said, adding that China has cut its US Treasury holdings by over 40 percent since 2013.陈表示：“这不仅对中国的金融安全至关重要，而且对全球金融秩序的演变也有着深远的影响。”他补充说，自2013年以来，中国已将其持有的美国国债减少了40%以上。He said that key priorities for China going forward include gradually reducing US Treasury holdings, optimizing the dollar investment portfolio by allocating more to short-term securities, increasing non-dollar investments, and advancing renminbi internationalization.他说，中国未来的主要优先事项包括逐步减少美国国债持有量，通过将更多资金分配给短期证券来优化美元投资组合，增加非美元投资，以及推进人民币国际化。He also called for deepening financial cooperation within Asia—which together holds over 60 percent of global reserves in dollar-denominated assets—so that Asia can form an internal reserve circulation system and reduce its reliance on external markets.他还呼吁深化亚洲内部的金融合作，亚洲拥有全球60%以上的美元计价资产储备，这样亚洲就可以形成内部储备流通体系，减少对外部市场的依赖。China has been stepping up efforts to diversify its reserve assets. The country's official gold reserves rose for the eighth consecutive month to 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange said.中国一直在加紧努力，使其储备资产多样化。国家外汇管理局表示，截至6月底，该国官方黄金储备连续第八个月增长至7390万盎司。consecutiven.连续不断的/kənˈsɛkjʊtɪv/dollar-denominatedn.以美元标价的/ˈdɒlə dɪˈnɒmɪneɪtɪd/

President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned  9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump's so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached. ING's Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year. For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries.  In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.   

In the latest Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, they discuss the June jobs report, takeaways from the June FOMC meeting and subsequent Fedspeak, and a variety of other topics including SLR reform, foreign purchases of US Treasuries, and developments related to trade and fiscal policy. (Note: This podcast was recorded on July 3rd just after the release of the June employment report.)

Sarah Hansen, Morningstar Inc's senior markets reporter, discusses the uncertain outlook for the third quarter and how investors should prepare for market volatility.What Was Surprising From Q2 Market VolatilityMixed Expectations as Trump's Tariff Deadline ApproachesHow Should Investors Prepare Themselves for Market Volatility?How Tariff Uncertainty Could Affect Company EarningsHow Trump's Tax and Spending Bill Raises Concerns About Federal DeficitHow the Fed's Decision on Interest Rates Could Affect the Yield CurveShould Investors Brace for More Market Volatility? Read about topics from this episode.  13 Charts on Q2's Major Market Rebound Market Volatility: What to Watch in Q2 After Big Swings in Q1 Has the Stock Market Reached Peak Optimism on Tariffs? What Investors Need to Know About Tariffs Tariffs Would Likely Hit These US Stock Sectors the Hardest What Investors Need to Know About the Budget Reconciliation Bill The Deficit is the Biggest Risk for the Bond Market, Says Matt Eagan of Loomis Sayles How Much Will the Fed Cut Interest Rates? How Healthy Is the US Economy? Here's What the Top Economic Indicators Say  What to watch from Morningstar. Is the International Outlook Brighter Than the US?Digital Advice in 2025: What You Need to Know About Robo-AdvisorsDemystifying Private Equity and Private Credit ETFs: What Every Investor Should KnowMarket Volatility: Portfolio Diversification Is Winning in 2025 Read what our team is writing:Sarah HansenIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Send us a text◆ SSA yields bump up against US government curve with deficit set to spiral ◆ Waning CEEMEA ESG bond issuance ◆ Leaner, meaner SLL marketThe SSA bond market has enjoyed its fair share of eye-catching relative value inversions of late. Last year, the likes of Portugal and Spain began trading tighter than France in the European government bond market, for example. But after US president Donald Trump got his budget voted through on Thursday, it could be about to witness the mother of all RV upsets — bonds trading though US Treasuries for the first time ever.This week we look at the arguments for and against why this should happen and think about when it might occur.We also looked at some slowing areas of ESG capital markets. ESG-labelled bond issuance is falling in the CEEMEA bond market despite some recent high profile deals. We examine the theories behind why this is happening.Meanwhile, he sustainability-linked loan market is a shadow of its former self. We find out why and argue that this might be a good thing, showing a market gaining in sophistication.

Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast: (1) UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Rachel Reeves will stay on as Chancellor of the Exchequer, as he sought to draw a line under speculation about her future that sparked a bond selloff. (2) As speculation of Reeves’ potential ouster raced through markets, 30-year gilt yields surged 19 basis points Wednesday, the biggest jump since April and one strong enough to send ripples into US Treasuries. Stocks slid. And the pound tumbled as investors headed for the exits, skeptical of Starmer’s continued commitment to shoring up the nation’s precarious finances. (3) The “weaponization” of foreign exchange is posing a growing headache for central bank reserve managers, giving them more reason to boost their holdings of gold. (4) House Republican leaders struggled to find the final votes to advance Donald Trump’s massive tax and spending package, holding a key vote open for hours as the president and his allies worked to win them over but expressing confidence the legislation would eventually pass. (5) President Donald Trump’s administration has lifted recent export license requirements for chip design software sales in China, as Washington and Beijing implement a trade deal for both countries to ease some restrictions on critical technologies. (6) President Donald Trump said he had reached a trade deal with Vietnam following weeks of intense diplomacy between the nations and ahead of a deadline next week that would have seen higher tariffs imposed on the country’s imports. Podcast Conversation: Wimbledon Investors Turn 75% Profit Trading Access to VIP SeatsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's show we are looking at what the Fed could do that would cause a major increase in demand for US Treasuries. If the demand for Treasuries were to increase, the prices would rise and the market rate for those bonds would fall. The US Treasury would no longer be dependent on the interest rate guidance coming from the Federal Reserve. That could save hundreds of billions per year in interest costs for the US government.--------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

On today's show we are talking about distorted valuations. When you consider risk, I'm seeing what I can only describe as an atmospheric inversion in today's markets. Wall Street surged toward new record highs on Thursday, as the S&P 500 briefly topped its February 19 closing high of 6,144.15, extending a nearly $10 trillion rally from the brink of a bear market.On today's show I'm going to compare the risk free yield on US Treasuries as a baseline benchmark. In some ways, every other investment could be compared to that benchmark. I'm not going to get into the debate whether the US is going to default on its debt in the next decade or not. For the purpose of today's discussion let's take it as a given that the US will meet its debt obligations even if that means expanding the annual deficit and the global debt. We know that will eventually break down, but let's accept the US Treasury as a foundation for now. The reason I'm proposing that is that the reference for all of these investment returns is the US dollar. If the dollar is in question, then the value of all the other investments that a dollar denominated could be called into question as well. That includes Nvidia, Amazon, Walmart, United Airlines and so on. So let's call the risk free rate of return the yield on the US 10 year treasury. Today the market opened at 4.25%, pretty much in lock step with the Fed Funds rate. So whether you buy a 30 T-bill or a 10 year bond, your risk free rate of return today is at 4.25%.The argument is that if another investment is offering a lower yield, then it is somehow a better investment than the risk free rate of return. Does that make sense that the S&P 500 index would be more expensive than the risk free rate of return? --------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)  

Long-dated US Treasuries, the most popular go to assets in times of uncertainty, have done a disappointing job this year of dampening volatility in portfolios. So what might you favour instead? Fund managers Mike Riddell and Tim Foster join Seb Morton-Clark and Katie Roberts to discuss what investors need to consider when they're looking for the bonds that can shore up their allocations. And analyst Andressa Tezine explains why 2025 might be the year for emerging markets and where to look for yield.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's podcast, I break down 5 great questions we have either fielded directly in our practice, or have observed in the marketplace from retirees/near retirees.  Shoutout to Roberto for this concept, and if it goes well, we'll be doing these every 4-5 episodes!  In this edition, the 5 questions we'll tackle are:

We are joined in our latest edition of BM Talks by Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights. She is an expert in sanctions and trade policy with a focus on oil markets in the Middle East. Her substack has the ever-more relevant name of "Weaponized Economy".     We asked: What happens to the oil price given the Iran/Israel conflict?What will be the response of the GCC countries and China?How will Trump's trade policies affect GDP? Can sanctions ever really work? Would China dump US Treasuries? Will Russia come back into the fold? Is Trump the strongest strongman?

Oil prices are surging up to 10%, while equity futures are declining. Safe-haven assets like gold and US Treasuries are gaining traction. Overall, the initial market reaction to the escalation of hostilities in the Middle East is relatively contained, except for oil, as the situation remains fluid and uncertain. Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, talks about what to expect from the US, UK, Japanese, and Swiss central banks next week. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking Geneva, discusses the Middle East crisis and its potential short-term impact on the US dollar, which is close to a multi-year low, and gold, which is approaching its all-time high. He also comments on platinum amid a supply/demand imbalance.(00:00) - Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) (01:01) - Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing) (05:43) - Bond market update by Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research) (10:19) - FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX/PM PB Geneva) (14:13) - Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing) Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

ClearBridge Investments' Jeff Schulze reviews the two indicator upgrades on the Recession Risk Dashboard and shares his views on tariffs, US Treasuries, and why equity markets may see some choppiness over the next few months.

America’s debt burden and interest expense have become “untenable,” and that means long-term US Treasury bonds are no longer seen as legitimate risk-free investments, said DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach. He is joined by Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs has led to a rethink over the US dollar. After the “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced on April 2, global investors sold both US equities and the dollar, a rare event that raises concerns about the credibility of US Treasuries and the dollar itself. Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating and the sharp appreciation of certain currencies, particularly the Taiwan dollar, against the greenback have further intensified the situation. Are we entering a period of de-dollarization? What are the implications for the regions' central banks, corporations and financial institutions – many of which are major holders of US Treasuries? And which Asian currencies could outperform following this paradigm shift? Stephen Chiu, chief Asia FX and rates strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence discusses these issues with John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

'Gold Price Is Implying That US Treasuries Are Junk' You don't have to imagine it anymore. We're seeing it happen in front of our eyes. As gold is replacing US treasuries as the international store of value. And to help point out the signs, Vince Lanci has you covered in today's Morning markets and Metals. - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

This week, we're diving into Bitcoin's surge to new all-time highs, with funding rates climbing, open interest nearing $100 billion, and BTC dominance holding strong at 61%. We'll explore expectations and market positioning as the major BTC Vegas conference kicks off and examine the bullish signal of the 200-day moving average golden cross. We also discuss how large Bitcoin holders are strategically managing their positions through lending and options.In markets, we compare Solana and Ethereum, including Standard Chartered's $500 SOL initiation and price target. We look at the impending arrival of SOL ETFs & ETPs and the potential for positive flows and arbitrage opportunities. For Ethereum, validators are signaling another gas limit boost, and we note the impressive TVL increase to $119.5 billion over the past month. Also in markets, we cover the COIN50 Index rebalances and its recent strong performance.On the macro front, we analyze Bitcoin demand amidst elevated bond yields, particularly focusing on Japan's significant holdings of US Treasuries. We'll provide an overview of the much-discussed "big beautiful bill" and its potential economic implications. Plus, a look at Bitcoin versus gold through the lens of their unique supply and demand characteristics. Keep an eye on key economic indicators this week with the FOMC minutes due on Wednesday, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and PCE data out on Friday.We also examine the trend of corporates continuing to accumulate Bitcoin, their strategies, and spotlight The Blockchain Group and Strategy. Finally, in Coinbase news, the platform has expanded its altcoin support in Germany, adding RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, and L3.Topics Covered:Bitcoin Bonanza: All-time highs, funding rates, open interest, 61% market dominance, BTC Vegas conference expectations, 200 DMA golden cross, large holder strategies (lending/overwriting).OnChain: SOL vs. ETH, Standard Chartered SOL $500 target, impending SOL ETFs/ETPs, Ethereum gas limit boost, TVL increase to $119.5B.Market Dynamics: COIN50 Index rebalances and strong performance.Macroeconomic Outlook: BTC demand vs. bond yields (Japan & UST focus), overview of the "big beautiful bill," BTC vs. Gold supply/demand.Key Economic Indicators: FOMC Minutes (Wednesday), Initial Jobless Claims (Thursday), PCE Data (Friday).Corporate Crypto Adoption: Continued corporate BTC buying, strategy insights, The Blockchain Group & Strategy.Coinbase News:Expansion of altcoin support in Germany (RPL, RSR, PENGU, REZ, ATH, SYRUP, PENDLE, L3)

Peter Schiff discusses recent financial market turmoil, significant growth in precious metals, and critiques Trump's policies and actions.This episode is sponsored by Square. Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at https://square.com/go/peterIn the latest episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff provides an in-depth analysis of the recent turbulence in financial markets. Schiff discusses the significant rise in gold prices, which closed at its highest weekly price ever, while other precious metals like silver and platinum also saw a notable increase. He highlights the decline of the US dollar and reveals the consequences of tariff policies, emphasizing the need for listeners to consider precious metals and foreign equities as a hedge against impending economic challenges. Schiff also examines the Fitch downgrade of US government credit, linking it to unsustainable fiscal policies under both Trump and Biden administrations. Additionally, he scrutinizes the political and economic conflicts surrounding tariffs, privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and personal financial gains made by Trump during his presidency. Listeners are encouraged to stay in tune for more insights and remain proactive in safeguarding their financial portfolios.

China, Cultural Revolution, Mao, Hua Guofeng, Gang of Four, China's shift to capitalism, China's economy, the Sino-Soviet split and how it effected China in the long run, China and the World Trade Organization, China's global infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative, Trump 2.0's love/hate relationship with the Chinese economy, the purpose of deindustrialization in the US, how US corporations cannibalize one another, Trump's position on US Treasuries, how tariffs relate to Treasury yields, Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), how Trump 2.0 is employing MMT, how Trump's NATO policy factors in, private military companies, the prospect of the US further outsourcing military services, Trump's relationship with the Fed & Jerome Powell, DEI and how it plays into Trump's strategy, why the Democrats are doing so little to uphold DEI, how the situation in Palestine effects Trump's economic agenda, will the US go to war with China?River misspoke on Guofeng's role in the Gang of Four trial: "re: Hua Guofeng and the Gang of Four. He helped to arrest the gang of four only one month after Mao's death in 1976. Trial was in 1981. When I said he didn't persecute the gang of four I was wrong, he did. I conflated his unwillingness to further the revolution (and unwillingness to stop it- same pattern of not taking the initiative we talked about) with his actions towards the gang of four."Music by: Keith Allen Dennishttps://keithallendennis.bandcamp.com/Additional Music: Chay and the Hostageshttps://chaythehostages.bandcamp.com/album/trigger-warning Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we ask whether too many have gotten too bearish on US treasuries, the one asset nearly everyone agrees no on should own. If so, US treasuries could be in for quite a painful squeeze ahead of a long US holiday weekend that would inevitably have interesting repercussions across markets, not least for the US dollar and gold. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. John's latest FX Update. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.

On today's show we are talking about the risk premium being attached to US sovereign debt and how this has the potential to destabilize real estate markets for all US investors. We are accustomed to thinking that the Fed sets the interest rate. But the truth is that the Fed only sets one interest rate. That is the Fed Funds rate that banks use to lend to each other. The downgrade of the US debt by Moody's debt rating agency last Friday was a reflection of the government's persistent failure to adopt measures that would “reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” Moody's was the third bond rating agency to downgrade the US sovereign debt after S&P and Fitch downgraded the US debt in August of 2023. It's not the downgrade per se that is the problem. The market makes its own determination and does not just look at what the bond rating agencies have to say.Spending is heading higher, regardless of who is in the White House. The demographic impact on entitlement programs is unavoidable. The population is aging and when the social security program was launched, there were 16.5 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. Today there are 2.71 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. By the mid 2030's, that number is expected to fall to 2.3 people working for every one person collecting. The math doesn't fund the liabilities. The current White House was elected on the promise of the economy and of fiscal responsibility. The latest budget bill that had wound its way through the Congress shows an increase in spending and a widening budget deficit. Despite desires to cut government waste and abuse, the impact seems somewhat muted. The bond market is clearly seeing significant risk to the ballooning US sovereign debt. This week's auction in new US Treasuries did not go well. The appetite for new paper from the US government was muted and the price that was bid for the 30 year was so low that the yield on the 30 year is now above 5%. The 30 year Treasury is a long denomination bond and its yield moves very slowly. To have the price for that bond drop so sharply in a matter of days has definitely rattled markets. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

BRICS/China Sell US Treasuries Big Pre-Summit... As the trade war continues on, there's also a BRICS Summit coming up. Which creates an interesting dynamic in how Trump has threatened to shut out any countries who de-dollarize, yet also there's also more need to de-dollarize than ever. So how are they responding? Vince Lanci explains in today's show! - To find out more about the latest news from Fortuna Mining go to: https://fortunamining.com/news/fortuna-publishes-its-2024-sustainability-report/ - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Are we out of the woods, or is recession still looming despite tariff relief? Moody’s downgrade puts US Treasuries under fresh scrutiny—should investors be worried? Retail investors are buying the dip—but is the strategy working? European defense ETFs gain ground amid rising global tensions. And in tech, from AI voices to AI arms races—is there anyway to decipher which companies are leading? Hosted by Michelle Martin with guest Swapnil Mishra, author of Investing for the Clueless, Reckless and Overly Cautious.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CATL’s blockbuster IPO powers past market headwinds—what it says about appetite for EV bets. US Treasuries under pressure as Moody’s issues a downgrade—what it could mean for Asian fund flows. HPE and RBC Bearings get bullish calls—are they overlooked gems? Fortnite faces legal fire over an AI voice, even as it returns to Apple’s App Store. City Developments and SIA Engineering post strong updates. Hosted by Michelle Martin with Ryan Huang. Featuring: CATL, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, HPE, Fortnite, RBC Bearings, CDL, SIA Engineering.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

USD overweight exposure is now normalizing Even as equities have rallied substantially from April lows, recovery in the dollar index, or DXY, has underwhelmed and the currency sits near the lowest level it's been in three years. Alex Cohen believes that while there are cyclical reasons for the dollar weakness, there's also been a bigger structural rethink on the currency by investors from the push toward de-globalization and from questions around US exceptionalism. Alex sees German fiscal reforms as a game changer, another dollar negative. But our own survey shows very negative sentiment for the dollar, which is relevant to the short term. Mark Cabana contributes with a discussion of rates given the important interplay between the Treasuries and currencies. Mark believes that there has been a shift away from US Treasuries by global investors, although a lot of this recent shift is a function of investors reducing their overweight position rather than getting outright negative. Mark also discusses debt sustainability concerns and how budget negotiations may impact bonds going forward. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

Thank you to Hamilton ETFs for sponsoring this video! Today we'll cover MIX - Hamilton Enhanced Mixed Asset ETF. This innovative all-in-one ETF aims to provide equity-like returns while helping investors weather market volatility with it's 60/20/20 balance, including US equities, US Treasuries, and gold. Learn more here - https://hamiltonetfs.com/etf/mix/ -----------

Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist for Morningstar Investment Management's Wealth group, discusses how trade talks over tariffs could ripple through the bond market and whether import taxes are the right move for Hollywood movies.Key Takeaways:What a Potential Trade Deal Between the US and UK Means for Market SentimentWhat Countries Need to Strike a Trade Deal to Calm Wall Street?What Persistent High Tariffs and Falling Imports From China Could Mean for the USHow Japan Moving Out of US Treasuries Could Rattle the Bond MarketHow Trump's Tariffs on International Movies Could Affect the Services SectorHow Tariff-Induced Market Volatility Affects the US Dollar's Strength GloballyHas Market Volatility Made the US a Risky Bet for Stock Investors?How Investors and Investment Managers Should Handle Market VolatilityWhat to Watch Before Trump's 90-Day Tariff Pause Ends Read about topics from this episode.  9 Charts on Trump's First 100 Days in the Markets 6 Charts on How Trump's Tariffs Have Upended Global Markets Q1 GDP Forecast to Show Sharp Slowdown as Imports Surge Ahead of Tariffs US-China Trade War Cause Us to Reduce Most US Independent Producers' Valuations by 2%-13% US Treasuries Sell Off as Trade War Calls Haven Status Into Question Dollar Hits 3-Year Low Against the Euro in Tariff Turmoil May 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: Eye of the Hurricane What to watch from Morningstar. Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting Could Reveal Its Future PlansRetirees: Here's How to Tweak the 4% Rule to Protect Your Nest EggMarket Volatility: Which Investments Will Protect Your Portfolio in a Recession?Market Volatility: What Lies Ahead in Trump's Trade War Read what our team is writing:Dominic PappalardoIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Listen now to the podcast from the Asset Management and Investors Council (AMIC), ICMA's dedicated forum advocating the interests of buy-side members, including asset managers, institutional investors, private banks, pension funds, and insurance companies, among others. Returning for this episode are industry experts, Bob Parker, former Chairman of AMIC and Senior Adviser to ICMA, alongside Massimiliano Castelli, PhD MSc, Managing Director and Head of Strategy & Advice at UBS Asset Management, who also serves as the Co-Chair of the AMIC Executive Committee. In this podcast, recorded on 7th May 2025, the team discussed: The evolving US tariff policy and how these policies may affect the economies of the US and its major trading partners. How might other Governments react? Whether the independence of the US Federal Reserve is under threat Implications for foreign demand for US Treasuries and whether the turmoil could persuade investors to increasingly shift allocations outside the US If you have questions or topics that you would like our guests to address in future episodes, please feel free to get in contact via email: AMIC@icmagroup.org. Learn more about AMIC: https://www.icmagroup.org/market-practice-and-regulatory-policy/asset-management/

On today's show we are looking at an event in financial markets that could represent a tipping point. These events have occurred with regularity over the years. Think of the Greek Sovereign debt crisis in 2012 that threatened to topple the entire European banking system. Think of Lehman Brothers in 2008. There was the bank failures in the US in 2023. These events often expose the counter party risk that is inherent in our globally interconnected financial system. The problem is showing up in the latest spike in US Treasury yields. It happened very rapidly between May 1 and May 2 of last week. Now we have become accustomed to very high volatility in US Treasury yields. Most of that is routinely blamed on the unpredictable nature of the White House.But this one was different. There was no news from the White House that fundamentally would affect Treasury yields. The threat to impose tariffs on foreign movies is not enough to move the needle. So who is dumping US Treasuries? What happened at the same time as the spike in US Treasury yields was a precipitous drop in the Taiwanese dollar against the US dollar. So who in Taiwan is dumping Treasuries? It turns out that Taiwanese life insurance companies had loaded up on US Treasuries and failed to purchase a hedge against interest rate volatility.  Why did they not buy insurance? They thought the insurance was too expensive. The liberation day announcement from Donald Trump had been pending for weeks. It was making front page headlines around the world, and still the risk managers at these Taiwanese insurance companies thought that they would take the risk and not buy the insurance. The high price of the insurance was a reflection of the elevated risk.---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Japan Opens Door To Selling US Treasuries As the trade war carries on, tensions remain with China, Trump has now raised the possibility of additional banking sanctions on Russia, and now Japan, a US ally, and the other largest holder of US treasuries along with China, has opened the door to the possibility of selling. Which is the kind of statement that was once unheard of. But is increasingly becoming more common as the shift from Treasuries to gold continues. To find out more about what they said, and how that will impact the gold and silver markets, click to watch the video now! - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Mining, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-silver-mines/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

US Treasuries and equities staged a strong comeback last week after US President Donald Trump appeared to strike a conciliatory tone on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and on the tariff deadlock with China. However, several US manufacturing activity indicators point to renewed contraction in regional manufacturing activities, and polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post revealed that 64% of respondents disapprove of the Trump tariffs, and 7 in 10 believe that the tariffs will lead to higher inflation.Against this backdrop, Julius Baer now expects two 50 bps rate cuts for the US, and have raised its recession probability to 50% from 35% for the next 12 months.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Get answers quickly:How is the American Consumer?How is the American Dollar?How are US Treasuries?How is the Housing Market?

Markets shook after US President Donald Trump announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs earlier this month. But there was one market in particular that got investors particularly worried: Treasuries. What's usually a safe haven asset suddenly saw huge sell-offs. Trump managed to avoid further pain by pausing large chunks of his tariffs, but the sell-off prompts a discussion about significant structural flaws in the market. The FT's US markets editor Kate Duguid explains which cracks in the US Treasuries market we can't ignore.Clip from The Wall Street Journal- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Why did Donald Trump buckle?Is the world losing faith in the almighty US dollar?The debt-fuelled bet on US Treasuries that's scaring regulators - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Follow Kate Duguid on X (@kateduguid). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With the continuing decline in the price of US Treasuries, Katie, Rob and Aiden take up the debate about the future of America's status as a truly exceptional safe haven. Today on the show, the trio discuss the damage President Donald Trump has already done and ask how long it will last. Afterwards, they take long and short bets on 10-year Treasuries, the S&P 500 and the euro/dollar trade. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today's show discusses latest events in Trump tariff policies. Not about paying for tax cuts but part of restructuring US empire financing. Why did Trump retreat from pace of tariff implementation? Answer: intense opposition from US multinational corporations to slow down implementation + Japan dumping US Treasuries. Trump launches verbal warning to Powell and Fed to start lowering interest rates, in repeat of 2017 Trump v. Powell conflict (which Trump won). Also, update on Ukraine war negotiations and emerging new Russian offensives. Prediction: US will exit war and Europe assume control. Europe wants to occupy western Ukraine as part of eventual settlement coming this year    

Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren't working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even consider them? Finally, how fund managers were overly long US Equities in December but now after the selloff they are saying they may reduce US equities. A little late no and how even professionals may react, panic, or be influenced by prevailing sentiment.    Gold all-time high US Dollar and US Treasuries get correlated with US equities and weren't the safe havens The airport crowdedness indicator of recessions? Fundamental EPS estimates are down a little but not much so far so what are they waiting for? Big earnings week including Tesla and Google (Alphabet) Fund manager surveys show they were overly long US equities before the selloff  Fund manager surveys also show as equities are in drawdown, they are thinking of selling High Yield spreads not showing recession levels of widening currently Typical high yield spread during recessions is 1000 basis points plus How economists tend to crowd together in their predicting recessions VIX Index implied volatility (expected) vs actual volatility (historical)     Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com             

Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies39:43 - Contact information and subscription details40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureDoug Burgum halted offshore wind project near NY, Gov Hochul tries to fight back. Foreign investors are dumping stocks.IMF issues warning, Trump is destroying their system. Trump is getting ready to drill baby drill. The Art of the Deal is in action. The [DS] has lost the narrative on MS-13 who was deported. The question is why are the Ds and the fake news concerned about this individual, does he know where the bodies are buried? Scavino sends a message puts up a picture of the President of El Salvador playing chess. What is the objective, in the end it will be checkmate king.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Trump Admin Orders Halt To Offshore Wind Project Near New York Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said on April 16 that he had ordered a halt to the construction of a major wind project off the coast of New York “until further review.” Burgum, posting to the social platform X on Wednesday, said he had consulted with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to direct the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to “halt all construction activities” on Equinor's Empire Wind project. The Biden administration approved the project in 2023, with construction beginning last year. The interior secretary accused the former administration of “rush[ing] through its approval without sufficient analysis.” He did not provide further details on potential faults identified. “On day one, [President Donald Trump] called for comprehensive reviews of federal wind projects and wind leasing, and at Interior, we are doing our part to make sure these instructions are followed,” Burgum wrote in a follow-up post.   In response to the pause, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said the project had already generated roughly 1,000 “good-paying union jobs” and is contributing to the state's economy. “This fully federally permitted project has already put shovels in the ground before the President's executive orders—it's exactly the type of bipartisan energy solution we should be working on,” Hochul wrote in a statement. “As Governor, I will not allow this federal overreach to stand. I will fight this every step of the way to protect union jobs, affordable energy, and New York's economic future.” According to the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, offshore wind farms “can be damaging to fish and other marine species” due to the noise and vibration from both the construction and operation of the wind turbines. Disturbing the sea floor during construction can also “affect plankton in the water column.” Source: zerohedge.com   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1912952517346070939  According to Apollo, foreigners own a massive $18.5 trillion of US stocks, or 20% of the total US equity market. Moreover, foreign holdings of US Treasuries are at $7.2 trillion, or 30% of the total. Investors from abroad also hold 30% of the total corporate credit market, for a total of $4.6 trillion. Foreign investors want out amid the volatility. IMF issues global economy warning The global economy is expected to grow more slowly this year and face higher inflation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said, citing global trade disruptions and rising “protectionism.” Sweeping tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, which he says are focused on prioritizing domestic manufacturing and renegotiating trade deals in favor of the US, have caused a sharp rift with trade partners, including the European Union and China.

I spoke to Bob Kudla from Trade Genius and he gave his ideas on revaluing gold as an accounting trick to buy back treasuries. How does this help America take debt off the books and buy dividend paying companies to add to American wealth fund with a move from bonds to stocks as primary focus. FYI April generally most bullish month of the year, SHTF stock market in the autumn.  ☕ Support Civilization Cycle Podcast Buy As a Double Espresso

Nobody wants the dollar? Is it really the end of the word as we know it?? While the Dollar has certainly had a decline, going from 110 to 99 on the US Dollar Index. However, things must be placed properly in context: Looking at a 20-yar chart, it is clear that the Dollar is NOT declining, despite recent, short term dips. The Dollar has basically been consolidating ever since 2022. Yes, the Dollar could go lower from here; 91 on the Index is certainly possible in a retest of a long term moving average. But that would still be well within the bullish trend. What we're witnessing now is not surprising, given the dynamics imposed by the tariffs. Currency is basically nothing but a measure of international trade, and most countries store their reserve assets in US Dollars by buying US Treasuries, gold, or US stocks. Countries concerned about the impact of tariffs on their economy are pulling their reserve assets out of dollars and back into their own currencies. That's the rotation that's been going on. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C0sBBJ9EPE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Dollar And Inflation: Don't Believe The Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-and-inflation-dont-believe-the-hype/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #USDollar #ReserveCurrency #InternationalTrade #MarketLosses #MarketGains #LossReversal #CorrectiveCycle  #BondYields #MarketInstability #Liquidity #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketCorrection #MarketPullback #MarketRally #MarketBounce #200DMA #MarketSupport #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Preview: Colleague Brett Arends of MarketWatch, writing ROI column, views the US in retrenchment following PRC threat to sell US treasuries and withhold critical minerals from market. More. 1966 MAO AND THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION

SEASON 3 EPISODE 117: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:45) SPECIAL COMMENT: Trump has already LOST the tariff wars he finally claimed he paused yesterday (without really pausing). Already. Took him only eight days. From Liberation Day to a day when in any other war, literal or figurative, he would have been deposed - 8 days. And never mind how much YOU AND I think he’s crazy; a high-priced adviser to macro fund managers says “a few have quietly wondered if the president might be insane." And after Wall Street came off the ledge and got back to where it was Monday – only, what, seven trillion lost – he declared victory. “Up 2500 points. Nobody has ever heard of it. Gotta be a record.” Because he can’t admit he made a mistake; his head would fall off. His approval numbers have cratered. He’s underwater by an AVERAGE of six points. LAST Wednesday it was an average of TWO points. Since the election he’s lost 20 points among those over age 65; he’s lost 50 points among those under age 30. And he still raised the tariffs on the Chinese again – to 125 percent – because he’s mad at them. Because they of course are winning. Because the Chinese are not negotiating; the Chinese are as they have been for centuries, waiting for their opponents to DIE. The Chinese are apparently dumping our 10-Year Treasuries, driving up our debt. And they’ve opened trading partnership negotiations with the head of the European Union. And for all the claims about pausing the tariffs, a universal TEN percent tariff will be maintained. He didn't pause anything. He simply lost everything. B-Block (27:10) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Joe Manchin writes a book celebrating his middle of the road bona fides. The cover photo shows only the right half of his face, naturally. Marjorie Stupid Greene reveals she does not know what the word "Merch" means. And the president of the hockey writers' association, a bonehead named Frank Seravalli, not only defends Wayne Gretzky's attacks on Canada but his bringing FBI Director and Election Denier Kash Patel to the Ovechkin game - and calls CRITICISM of those decisions "political BS." Instead of, maybe, calling out Gretzky for BRINGING political BS into a moment of sports history. C-Block (49:15) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: She's still at it. Even as Trump's boasts of pausing the tariffs while INCREASING them on China and maintaining them on everybody else, Laura Ingraham is still carrying his water for him. It's time for me to review my dates with her last century, and the extraordinary revelation she made during the first of them about the then-nascent Republican-Media Industrial Complex.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

God's Debris: The Complete Works, Amazon https://tinyurl.com/GodsDebrisCompleteWorksFind my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.comContent:Politics, Robbie Starbuck, NATO Shoshana Chatfield, Fannie Mae Unethical Conduct, Bill Pulte, Panama Canal, Pete Hegseth, Flu Shot Study, Trust in Science, Jack Smith Biden Staffers, CNN Harry Enten, President Trump, Tariffs, Scott Bessent, Trade Imbalance, China GDP, Kyle Bass, China's Reserve Adequacy, China's Financial Challenges, Grok Excellence, US Treasuries, Hedge Fund Treasuries, Elon vs Navarro, 2 Head Shots Suicide, Ryan Routh Stinger, Disability Claims Activist Judges, RFK Jr. Fluoride, Mike Benz, Anti-AFD Lawfare, China Trade War Options, Scott Adams~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.

Donald Trump is pushing ahead with another 50 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, and there are questions about what will happen to nearly $2tn worth of pledges to invest in the US because of the levies. Plus, the FT's Katie Martin explains why a selloff in US Treasuries could mean a world of hurt for markets. Mentioned in this podcast:Donald Trump to proceed with extra 50% tariff on China as trade war escalatesUS tariffs threaten almost $2tn of investment pledges by global companies Markets could get a lot worse — and quicklyThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Reality check: President Trump likes stablecoins more than Bitcoin. What do Bitcoiners do?You're listening to Bitcoin Season 2. Subscribe to the newsletter, trusted by over 7,000 Bitcoiners: https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.comPresident Trump makes a pivot from Bitcoin to stablecoins in his latest policy statements. Reality check: stablecoins now account for over 50% of all crypto settlement volume, with Tether becoming the 7th largest holder of US Treasuries globally. We break down how stablecoins are being used in emerging markets, why Tron dominates the stablecoin landscape despite centralization concerns, and what this means for Bitcoin's relationship with the traditional financial system.Notes:- Tether is 7th largest buyer of US treasuries globally- Stablecoins now 50% of all crypto settlement volume- Tether holds $113 billion in treasuries- Tron handles ~40% of stablecoin transactions- Tether earns ~$4 billion yearly on Treasury yields- Trump now promoting stablecoins for dollar dominanceCheck out our Bitcoin scaling conference! Visit opnext.dev to learn more.Timestamps:00:00 Start00:34 Trump video03:09 Reaction06:53 Tether buying treasuries11:08 Other stablecoins17:35 Arch Network18:05 The Tether Eye of Sauron20:10 Who's using stablecoins22:18 Where are stablecoins traded?26:31 Volume of all crypto transactions compared32:33 A realistic view-

- Launch of New Film "Unpacking the Lies" (0:00) - Update on Enoch AI Model (2:15) - Challenges in AI Model Development (4:40) - Critique of European Leaders and JD Vance's Speech (7:36) - Trump's Policies and Relations with Russia and Ukraine (11:09) - Taiwan and China Relations (18:42) - Support for Decentralized Innovation (22:09) - January 6 Restitution Lawsuit (25:29) - Book Review: "The Rise of Tyranny" (32:18) - Book Review: "Russia Hoax" (41:55) - Music Video: "Unpacking the Lies" (48:39) - Interview with Andy Schechtman on Gold Scarcity (58:11) - Trump's Geopolitical Strategy and Energy Policy (1:20:09) - Trump's Economic Policies and Personal Success Story (1:22:27) - Gold Market Analysis and Trump's Peace Deal Impact (1:24:28) - Fiscal Challenges and Debt Management (1:26:07) - Elon Musk, Dogecoin, and US Treasuries (1:28:46) - Gold Revaluation and JP Morgan's Role (1:31:17) - BRICS and Global Currency Shifts (1:38:42) - Gold Ownership and Market Trends (1:40:31) - Trump's Strategic Moves and Market Impact (1:54:18) - Final Thoughts and Market Outlook (2:00:09) For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food freedom, medical freedom, the freedom of speech, etc.). Together, we're helping create a better world, with more honest food labeling, reduced chemical contamination, the avoidance of toxic heavy metals and vastly increased scientific transparency. ▶️ Every dollar you spend at the Health Ranger Store goes toward helping us achieve important science and content goals for humanity: https://www.healthrangerstore.com/ ▶️ Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html ▶️ Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/hrreport ▶️ Join Our Social Network: https://brighteon.social/@HealthRanger ▶️ Check In Stock Products at: https://PrepWithMike.com