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Peter Schiff discusses recent financial market turmoil, significant growth in precious metals, and critiques Trump's policies and actions.This episode is sponsored by Square. Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at https://square.com/go/peterIn the latest episode of The Peter Schiff Show, host Peter Schiff provides an in-depth analysis of the recent turbulence in financial markets. Schiff discusses the significant rise in gold prices, which closed at its highest weekly price ever, while other precious metals like silver and platinum also saw a notable increase. He highlights the decline of the US dollar and reveals the consequences of tariff policies, emphasizing the need for listeners to consider precious metals and foreign equities as a hedge against impending economic challenges. Schiff also examines the Fitch downgrade of US government credit, linking it to unsustainable fiscal policies under both Trump and Biden administrations. Additionally, he scrutinizes the political and economic conflicts surrounding tariffs, privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and personal financial gains made by Trump during his presidency. Listeners are encouraged to stay in tune for more insights and remain proactive in safeguarding their financial portfolios.
Today, we ask whether too many have gotten too bearish on US treasuries, the one asset nearly everyone agrees no on should own. If so, US treasuries could be in for quite a painful squeeze ahead of a long US holiday weekend that would inevitably have interesting repercussions across markets, not least for the US dollar and gold. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. John's latest FX Update. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo.
On today's show we are talking about the risk premium being attached to US sovereign debt and how this has the potential to destabilize real estate markets for all US investors. We are accustomed to thinking that the Fed sets the interest rate. But the truth is that the Fed only sets one interest rate. That is the Fed Funds rate that banks use to lend to each other. The downgrade of the US debt by Moody's debt rating agency last Friday was a reflection of the government's persistent failure to adopt measures that would “reverse the trend of large annual fiscal deficits and growing interest costs.” Moody's was the third bond rating agency to downgrade the US sovereign debt after S&P and Fitch downgraded the US debt in August of 2023. It's not the downgrade per se that is the problem. The market makes its own determination and does not just look at what the bond rating agencies have to say.Spending is heading higher, regardless of who is in the White House. The demographic impact on entitlement programs is unavoidable. The population is aging and when the social security program was launched, there were 16.5 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. Today there are 2.71 people in the workforce for every one person collecting benefits. By the mid 2030's, that number is expected to fall to 2.3 people working for every one person collecting. The math doesn't fund the liabilities. The current White House was elected on the promise of the economy and of fiscal responsibility. The latest budget bill that had wound its way through the Congress shows an increase in spending and a widening budget deficit. Despite desires to cut government waste and abuse, the impact seems somewhat muted. The bond market is clearly seeing significant risk to the ballooning US sovereign debt. This week's auction in new US Treasuries did not go well. The appetite for new paper from the US government was muted and the price that was bid for the 30 year was so low that the yield on the 30 year is now above 5%. The 30 year Treasury is a long denomination bond and its yield moves very slowly. To have the price for that bond drop so sharply in a matter of days has definitely rattled markets. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
BRICS/China Sell US Treasuries Big Pre-Summit... As the trade war continues on, there's also a BRICS Summit coming up. Which creates an interesting dynamic in how Trump has threatened to shut out any countries who de-dollarize, yet also there's also more need to de-dollarize than ever. So how are they responding? Vince Lanci explains in today's show! - To find out more about the latest news from Fortuna Mining go to: https://fortunamining.com/news/fortuna-publishes-its-2024-sustainability-report/ - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise
USD overweight exposure is now normalizing Even as equities have rallied substantially from April lows, recovery in the dollar index, or DXY, has underwhelmed and the currency sits near the lowest level it's been in three years. Alex Cohen believes that while there are cyclical reasons for the dollar weakness, there's also been a bigger structural rethink on the currency by investors from the push toward de-globalization and from questions around US exceptionalism. Alex sees German fiscal reforms as a game changer, another dollar negative. But our own survey shows very negative sentiment for the dollar, which is relevant to the short term. Mark Cabana contributes with a discussion of rates given the important interplay between the Treasuries and currencies. Mark believes that there has been a shift away from US Treasuries by global investors, although a lot of this recent shift is a function of investors reducing their overweight position rather than getting outright negative. Mark also discusses debt sustainability concerns and how budget negotiations may impact bonds going forward. You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life. "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2025 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.
Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist for Morningstar Investment Management's Wealth group, discusses how trade talks over tariffs could ripple through the bond market and whether import taxes are the right move for Hollywood movies.Key Takeaways:What a Potential Trade Deal Between the US and UK Means for Market SentimentWhat Countries Need to Strike a Trade Deal to Calm Wall Street?What Persistent High Tariffs and Falling Imports From China Could Mean for the USHow Japan Moving Out of US Treasuries Could Rattle the Bond MarketHow Trump's Tariffs on International Movies Could Affect the Services SectorHow Tariff-Induced Market Volatility Affects the US Dollar's Strength GloballyHas Market Volatility Made the US a Risky Bet for Stock Investors?How Investors and Investment Managers Should Handle Market VolatilityWhat to Watch Before Trump's 90-Day Tariff Pause Ends Read about topics from this episode. 9 Charts on Trump's First 100 Days in the Markets 6 Charts on How Trump's Tariffs Have Upended Global Markets Q1 GDP Forecast to Show Sharp Slowdown as Imports Surge Ahead of Tariffs US-China Trade War Cause Us to Reduce Most US Independent Producers' Valuations by 2%-13% US Treasuries Sell Off as Trade War Calls Haven Status Into Question Dollar Hits 3-Year Low Against the Euro in Tariff Turmoil May 2025 US Stock Market Outlook: Eye of the Hurricane What to watch from Morningstar. Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting Could Reveal Its Future PlansRetirees: Here's How to Tweak the 4% Rule to Protect Your Nest EggMarket Volatility: Which Investments Will Protect Your Portfolio in a Recession?Market Volatility: What Lies Ahead in Trump's Trade War Read what our team is writing:Dominic PappalardoIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/
Listen now to the podcast from the Asset Management and Investors Council (AMIC), ICMA's dedicated forum advocating the interests of buy-side members, including asset managers, institutional investors, private banks, pension funds, and insurance companies, among others. Returning for this episode are industry experts, Bob Parker, former Chairman of AMIC and Senior Adviser to ICMA, alongside Massimiliano Castelli, PhD MSc, Managing Director and Head of Strategy & Advice at UBS Asset Management, who also serves as the Co-Chair of the AMIC Executive Committee. In this podcast, recorded on 7th May 2025, the team discussed: The evolving US tariff policy and how these policies may affect the economies of the US and its major trading partners. How might other Governments react? Whether the independence of the US Federal Reserve is under threat Implications for foreign demand for US Treasuries and whether the turmoil could persuade investors to increasingly shift allocations outside the US If you have questions or topics that you would like our guests to address in future episodes, please feel free to get in contact via email: AMIC@icmagroup.org. Learn more about AMIC: https://www.icmagroup.org/market-practice-and-regulatory-policy/asset-management/
On today's show we are looking at an event in financial markets that could represent a tipping point. These events have occurred with regularity over the years. Think of the Greek Sovereign debt crisis in 2012 that threatened to topple the entire European banking system. Think of Lehman Brothers in 2008. There was the bank failures in the US in 2023. These events often expose the counter party risk that is inherent in our globally interconnected financial system. The problem is showing up in the latest spike in US Treasury yields. It happened very rapidly between May 1 and May 2 of last week. Now we have become accustomed to very high volatility in US Treasury yields. Most of that is routinely blamed on the unpredictable nature of the White House.But this one was different. There was no news from the White House that fundamentally would affect Treasury yields. The threat to impose tariffs on foreign movies is not enough to move the needle. So who is dumping US Treasuries? What happened at the same time as the spike in US Treasury yields was a precipitous drop in the Taiwanese dollar against the US dollar. So who in Taiwan is dumping Treasuries? It turns out that Taiwanese life insurance companies had loaded up on US Treasuries and failed to purchase a hedge against interest rate volatility. Why did they not buy insurance? They thought the insurance was too expensive. The liberation day announcement from Donald Trump had been pending for weeks. It was making front page headlines around the world, and still the risk managers at these Taiwanese insurance companies thought that they would take the risk and not buy the insurance. The high price of the insurance was a reflection of the elevated risk.---------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
Japan Opens Door To Selling US Treasuries As the trade war carries on, tensions remain with China, Trump has now raised the possibility of additional banking sanctions on Russia, and now Japan, a US ally, and the other largest holder of US treasuries along with China, has opened the door to the possibility of selling. Which is the kind of statement that was once unheard of. But is increasingly becoming more common as the shift from Treasuries to gold continues. To find out more about what they said, and how that will impact the gold and silver markets, click to watch the video now! - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Mining, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-silver-mines/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise
Underperformance of US Treasuries and the dollar during recent market turmoil begs the question of whether the safe haven status of the US, long taken for granted, will be as easily conferred in future times of trouble. Following the imposition of larger than expected tariffs on US trade partners, It served as a warning that US assets and the currency might require higher risk premia than previously appreciated. Mark Rosenberg, in his capacity as co-founder and CEO of GeoQuant, has considered and articulated exactly these risks as part of his work over recent years. He joins the podcast to discuss the trends in US political risk and the strength of its institutions, translating how they compare to other developed and emerging economies and whether further accounting for these risks in market pricing is warranted.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
US Treasuries and equities staged a strong comeback last week after US President Donald Trump appeared to strike a conciliatory tone on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and on the tariff deadlock with China. However, several US manufacturing activity indicators point to renewed contraction in regional manufacturing activities, and polls conducted by ABC News and The Washington Post revealed that 64% of respondents disapprove of the Trump tariffs, and 7 in 10 believe that the tariffs will lead to higher inflation.Against this backdrop, Julius Baer now expects two 50 bps rate cuts for the US, and have raised its recession probability to 50% from 35% for the next 12 months.This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia at Julius Baer.
Get answers quickly:How is the American Consumer?How is the American Dollar?How are US Treasuries?How is the Housing Market?
Markets shook after US President Donald Trump announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs earlier this month. But there was one market in particular that got investors particularly worried: Treasuries. What's usually a safe haven asset suddenly saw huge sell-offs. Trump managed to avoid further pain by pausing large chunks of his tariffs, but the sell-off prompts a discussion about significant structural flaws in the market. The FT's US markets editor Kate Duguid explains which cracks in the US Treasuries market we can't ignore.Clip from The Wall Street Journal- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:Why did Donald Trump buckle?Is the world losing faith in the almighty US dollar?The debt-fuelled bet on US Treasuries that's scaring regulators - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Follow Kate Duguid on X (@kateduguid). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
With the continuing decline in the price of US Treasuries, Katie, Rob and Aiden take up the debate about the future of America's status as a truly exceptional safe haven. Today on the show, the trio discuss the damage President Donald Trump has already done and ask how long it will last. Afterwards, they take long and short bets on 10-year Treasuries, the S&P 500 and the euro/dollar trade. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Today's show discusses latest events in Trump tariff policies. Not about paying for tax cuts but part of restructuring US empire financing. Why did Trump retreat from pace of tariff implementation? Answer: intense opposition from US multinational corporations to slow down implementation + Japan dumping US Treasuries. Trump launches verbal warning to Powell and Fed to start lowering interest rates, in repeat of 2017 Trump v. Powell conflict (which Trump won). Also, update on Ukraine war negotiations and emerging new Russian offensives. Prediction: US will exit war and Europe assume control. Europe wants to occupy western Ukraine as part of eventual settlement coming this year
Derek Moore talks about airport business as a sign or lack thereof of recessions. Gold makes another all-time high while the safety trade like treasuries and the US dollar aren't working lately. Plus, looking at typical widening of high yield spreads during recessions compared to today. Later, the VIX Index is still not appropriately pricing in historical volatility given the moves again this week in equity markets. Also, surveys of economists are up to 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months although short of the 60%+ probability in late 2022 and early 2023 so why should we even consider them? Finally, how fund managers were overly long US Equities in December but now after the selloff they are saying they may reduce US equities. A little late no and how even professionals may react, panic, or be influenced by prevailing sentiment. Gold all-time high US Dollar and US Treasuries get correlated with US equities and weren't the safe havens The airport crowdedness indicator of recessions? Fundamental EPS estimates are down a little but not much so far so what are they waiting for? Big earnings week including Tesla and Google (Alphabet) Fund manager surveys show they were overly long US equities before the selloff Fund manager surveys also show as equities are in drawdown, they are thinking of selling High Yield spreads not showing recession levels of widening currently Typical high yield spread during recessions is 1000 basis points plus How economists tend to crowd together in their predicting recessions VIX Index implied volatility (expected) vs actual volatility (historical) Mentioned in this Episode Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com
Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that gold is rising, being the 'last man standing' as a perceived safe-haven asset. And American bond funds are having a moment, a negative one. Outflows are continuing, building selling pressure at the rate of about US$10 bln per week and have done so for the past five weeks now.The position of the US dollar and US Treasuries are being directly undermined by the US president. He and his advisers have been raging about the role of the Fed boss. If he tries to remove him, expect a larger market reaction, especially from the bond market. But so far it is all bluster.But first, it will be a short, truncated week post-Easter with just three business days until Frida's ANZAC Day holiday. Our March export results are one of the few data releases. We will also get an update this week from the RBNZ's six-monthly credit condition survey.Internationally, we will get the start of the March 'flash' PMIs for April. Wall Street will continue with its early earnings season results, dominated this week by big tech. US durable goods orders for March, and confidence survey results for April are also due for release this week.Over the weekend China left its key lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month in April. After that, the yuan rose as did the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Expectations for a reserve ratio cut to boosrt bank liquidity are mounting there.China ramped up its budget spending in the first quarter at the fastest pace since 2022, allocating nearly 22% of planned outlays to counter weakening foreign demand amid an ongoing tariff war. The move is part of a broader strategy to boost domestic demand and support industries hit by trade tensions.Earlier they said foreign direct investment into the country is struggling again. In January it was down -14% from a year ago to ¥13.4 bln in the month. It rose to ¥16.6 bln in February. a +16% year-on-year gain. But it March it was only ¥6.9 bln, a -45% drop from from the same month a year ago. China prefers to look at this data "year-to-date" but that masks the current weakness.Japanese CPI inflation stayed high in March although it did slip to 3.6%, and the second consecutive decrease and the lowest of 2025.Across the Pacific, the US dollar has fallen to a three year low. Sentiment is being undermined by the Trump attacks on the US Fed. And it seems pretty clear that the US in now in a tariff-tax recession. Not only is the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signaling a -2.2% economic contraction, the blue chip 'consensus' forecasts are now showing up with contraction forecasts too. And the spread into investors funds is happening rather quickly now. 90 of the top 100 best-performing exchange-traded funds of last year are down in 2025, with an average loss of -13%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.American new housing starts unexpectedly dropped -11.4% in March from February to an annualised rate of 1.324 mln, the lowest level in four months and virtually the same as the same month a year ago. But the expectation is that these will fall from here as new-builds get much more expensive from the tariff-tax effect.US initial jobless claims came in at 220,000 last week, an increase although less of an increase than seasonal factors would have anticipated. But that puts them +5.1% higher than year-ago levels.Diving even more is the Philly Fed's factory survey in the heartland Pennsylvania manufacturing rust belt. This is the icon region the tariff-taxes are supposed to save. But they aren't feeling any benefit - although hardly surprising to everyone but MAGA zealots. New orders dropped to pandemic levels, and apart from the pandemic, the overall sentiment has seen its fastest and steepest drop since these survey records started in the 1970s.In Canada, they are a week away from their federal election (Monday, April 28, 2025 Canadian time). The polls are tightening but the incumbent Liberal Party still holds a comfortable lead over the Conservatives. Likewise in Australia, their federal election is in the week after that. Polls there also show a comfortable lead for the incumbent Labor Party. In both cases, the conservative forces are undermined by the toxic Trump effect. But on the other side, the Labor Party is wavering in some key heartland Sydney seats, hurt by "the Gaza issue".In Europe, they are in a better position to cut interest rates because they also don't have the inflation pressures the US has. And they have. The European Central Bank cut its policy interest rates by -25 bps on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. They say their disinflation process is progressing well and they have now dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance. They also say that their growth outlook has worsened from the escalating trade tensions.On Thursday, Australia released its March labour market data and there was a good +33,000 rise in new jobs, bouncing back from the February drop. The March data saw the increase evenly split from an increase in full-time jobs and part-time jobs. Their jobless rate unchanged stayed at 4.2%. There are +308,000 more people employed in Australia over the past year, a rise of +2.2%. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40%, up +7 bps from this time Saturday. Wall Street is taking it on the chin in its Monday session, down a very sharpish -3.1% on the S&P500, and staying down. The Nasdaq is down -3.6%, the Dow down -3.3%, so a broad retreat. The price of gold will start today at US$3417/oz, and up +US$90 from Saturday.Oil prices have fallen (in USD), down -US$1.50 from Saturday to be now just over US$63/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc, up +60 bps from Saturday at this time and its highest in six months. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at just on 52.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 68 and its highest since mid December.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,811 and up +2.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.
Legendary economist Dr. A. Gary Shilling, President of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an economic consulting firm and a registered investment advisor, joins Julia La Roche on episode 249 to discuss the state of the economy.Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Dr. Shilling explains why he believes we are headed for a recession, if not already in one. He analyzes how Trump's tariff policies are disrupting global trade relationships and creating economic uncertainty while simultaneously forcing countries like China to the negotiating table. Despite these headwinds, Dr. Shilling reveals why he remains bullish on US Treasuries and the dollar as safe havens, shares his optimistic outlook on Indian stocks over Chinese investments, and advises listeners to build "fortress-like balance sheets" to weather the coming economic storm.Timestamps:00:00 - Introduction and welcome back Dr. Shilling01:50 - Historical context: US economic role since World War II03:34 - Impact of globalization on US manufacturing04:14 - Trump's changing approach to international trade06:37 - China's position and recent willingness to negotiate09:03 - Signs of recession and economic vulnerabilities12:33 - Bond market volatility and US Treasury outlook17:18 - Perspective on gold reaching record highs19:11 - Current investment allocations and strategies20:21 - Why India may surpass China in global leadership24:19 - Media coverage of market fluctuations vs long-term outlook26:47 - Dr. Shilling's history of contrarian economic predictions29:56 - Assessment of current economic vulnerabilities32:04 - Consumer debt and "buy now, pay later" trends33:27 - The US debt bomb and dollar's reserve currency status36:52 - Potential outcomes of tariff policies39:43 - Contact information and subscription details40:42 - Closing advice: maintaining a "fortress-like balance sheet"Access Dr. Shilling's monthly newsletter INSIGHT by calling this toll free number (1-888-346-7444) or visiting his website (https://www.agaryshilling.com/).
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureDoug Burgum halted offshore wind project near NY, Gov Hochul tries to fight back. Foreign investors are dumping stocks.IMF issues warning, Trump is destroying their system. Trump is getting ready to drill baby drill. The Art of the Deal is in action. The [DS] has lost the narrative on MS-13 who was deported. The question is why are the Ds and the fake news concerned about this individual, does he know where the bodies are buried? Scavino sends a message puts up a picture of the President of El Salvador playing chess. What is the objective, in the end it will be checkmate king. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Trump Admin Orders Halt To Offshore Wind Project Near New York Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum said on April 16 that he had ordered a halt to the construction of a major wind project off the coast of New York “until further review.” Burgum, posting to the social platform X on Wednesday, said he had consulted with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to direct the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management to “halt all construction activities” on Equinor's Empire Wind project. The Biden administration approved the project in 2023, with construction beginning last year. The interior secretary accused the former administration of “rush[ing] through its approval without sufficient analysis.” He did not provide further details on potential faults identified. “On day one, [President Donald Trump] called for comprehensive reviews of federal wind projects and wind leasing, and at Interior, we are doing our part to make sure these instructions are followed,” Burgum wrote in a follow-up post. In response to the pause, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said the project had already generated roughly 1,000 “good-paying union jobs” and is contributing to the state's economy. “This fully federally permitted project has already put shovels in the ground before the President's executive orders—it's exactly the type of bipartisan energy solution we should be working on,” Hochul wrote in a statement. “As Governor, I will not allow this federal overreach to stand. I will fight this every step of the way to protect union jobs, affordable energy, and New York's economic future.” According to the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, offshore wind farms “can be damaging to fish and other marine species” due to the noise and vibration from both the construction and operation of the wind turbines. Disturbing the sea floor during construction can also “affect plankton in the water column.” Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1912952517346070939 According to Apollo, foreigners own a massive $18.5 trillion of US stocks, or 20% of the total US equity market. Moreover, foreign holdings of US Treasuries are at $7.2 trillion, or 30% of the total. Investors from abroad also hold 30% of the total corporate credit market, for a total of $4.6 trillion. Foreign investors want out amid the volatility. IMF issues global economy warning The global economy is expected to grow more slowly this year and face higher inflation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said, citing global trade disruptions and rising “protectionism.” Sweeping tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, which he says are focused on prioritizing domestic manufacturing and renegotiating trade deals in favor of the US, have caused a sharp rift with trade partners, including the European Union and China.
I spoke to Bob Kudla from Trade Genius and he gave his ideas on revaluing gold as an accounting trick to buy back treasuries. How does this help America take debt off the books and buy dividend paying companies to add to American wealth fund with a move from bonds to stocks as primary focus. FYI April generally most bullish month of the year, SHTF stock market in the autumn. ☕ Support Civilization Cycle Podcast Buy As a Double Espresso
Stocks and government bonds have steadied following dramatic falls triggered by the US president's trade war. Yet the policy may yet do lasting damage. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists examine the possible long-term effects on US Treasuries and the dollar. Visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement for information on our privacy and data protection practices. You may also visit megaphone.fm/adchoices to opt-out of targeted advertising.
Welcome to this week's Titan International market review for the week ending 13th April 2025. Following the prior week's tariff shockwaves which unsettled global markets, US equities staged a spirited rebound, clawing back a portion of the steep losses incurred. China was notably excluded from the temporary pause. Instead, the Trump administration pressed ahead with a series of escalating tariff hikes targeting Chinese imports, with some levies rising as high as 145%. Despite fears that elevated tariffs might stoke inflationary pressures, the latest US Consumer Price Index print told a different story. In equity markets, the Nasdaq posted one of its sharpest single-day gains on record, leading a broad-based rally that saw US stocks rise 5.7% over the week. Bond markets were not immune to the week's turbulence. US Treasuries sold off, with yields climbing across the curve. Amid the geopolitical noise, earnings season kicked off on Friday with a slate of upbeat results from major US banks. That's all for this week's Titan International Weekly Podcast. Thank you for listening and for further investment insights head over to titanwealthinternational.com.
Nobody wants the dollar? Is it really the end of the word as we know it?? While the Dollar has certainly had a decline, going from 110 to 99 on the US Dollar Index. However, things must be placed properly in context: Looking at a 20-yar chart, it is clear that the Dollar is NOT declining, despite recent, short term dips. The Dollar has basically been consolidating ever since 2022. Yes, the Dollar could go lower from here; 91 on the Index is certainly possible in a retest of a long term moving average. But that would still be well within the bullish trend. What we're witnessing now is not surprising, given the dynamics imposed by the tariffs. Currency is basically nothing but a measure of international trade, and most countries store their reserve assets in US Dollars by buying US Treasuries, gold, or US stocks. Countries concerned about the impact of tariffs on their economy are pulling their reserve assets out of dollars and back into their own currencies. That's the rotation that's been going on. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the video version of this podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_C0sBBJ9EPE&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Dollar And Inflation: Don't Believe The Hype" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-dollar-and-inflation-dont-believe-the-hype/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #USDollar #ReserveCurrency #InternationalTrade #MarketLosses #MarketGains #LossReversal #CorrectiveCycle #BondYields #MarketInstability #Liquidity #MarketBottom #TariffWar #BondMarket #DownsideRisk #Tariffs #MarketCorrection #MarketPullback #MarketRally #MarketBounce #200DMA #MarketSupport #MarketLows #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing
Speaking exclusively to Bloomberg, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the recent selloff in the bond market, rejecting speculation that foreign nations were dumping their holdings of US Treasuries. In her latest column, Bloomberg Opinion's Shuli Ren writes China is done retaliating against President Donald Trump's exorbitant tariffs, calling the administration's actions a "joke" that it no longer considers worthy of matching. The question now is whether President Xi Jinping will find a more potent weapon to strike back - such as its $760 billion worth of Treasury securities. We get her reaction to Bessent's comments. Plus - a degree of calm returned to Wall Street, with stocks and bonds notching a twin rally after a tumultuous week in the grip of President Trump's disruptive trade war. We get reaction to the day's market action from Ross Mayfield, Investment Strategist at Baird.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Todd Rabold, Investment Management Partner from the Callan Family Office shares his insights on on the topsy-turvy market movements in recent days and whether traditional safe havens like US Treasuries and the dollar are losing their appeal in light of President Trump’s new tariffs. He also weighs in on consumer sentiments and if he foresees a notable pullback or reallocation by investors in the short term. Presented by: Emaad AkhtarProduced by: Yeo Kai Ting (ykaiting@sph.com.sg)Photo credits: pixabay & its talented community of contributorsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Your morning briefing, the business news you need in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:(1) “The president has been very clear that he’s willing to talk to his counterpart,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer tells Fox News about Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.(2) President Donald Trump’s administration pressed forward with plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports by initiating trade probes led by the Commerce Department. (3) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent played down the recent selloff in the bond market, rejecting speculation that foreign nations were dumping their holdings of US Treasuries, while flagging that his department has tools to address dislocation if needed.(4) European Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Maros Sefcovic met with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer today in DC, “seizing the 90-day window for a mutual solution to unjustified tariffs,” he says in a post on X. (5) UK households increased their spending in March as consumer demand defied an imminent rise in household bills, according to reports from the British Retail Consortium and Barclays.(6) The Trump administration followed through on its threat to pull federal funding from Harvard University hours after the oldest and richest US college refused to agree to a list of government demands.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
‘In times of turmoil you see where the crowded trades are', says strategist Martin van Vliet. He explains what happened on the bond market that made Trump blink, and discusses where safe havens can be found when US Treasuries crumble.
Preview: Colleague Brett Arends of MarketWatch, writing ROI column, views the US in retrenchment following PRC threat to sell US treasuries and withhold critical minerals from market. More. 1966 MAO AND THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION
In this episode of Soar Financially, John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, joins Kai Hoffmann to break down the true drivers behind gold's massive move, the real reason Western ETF inflows are spiking, and why the trust in U.S. Treasuries—and the dollar—is rapidly eroding. We also dive into sovereign gold bonds in India, the psychology of the retail investor, and what a U.S. gold sale would really mean for the markets.Is this the era of safe-haven gold, or is there a bear case? John pulls no punches and brings 40 years of insight straight to the table.#Gold #WorldGoldCouncil #usdollar ----------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------
Trump conceded that there may be “transition problems” with his trade policies but said his team is “working on deals” with countries. Stocks tumbled after the White House clarified its tariff on all Chinese goods is at least 145% — even higher than previously believed. And the market for US Treasuries is again showing signs of distress. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
A gauge of Asian stocks is on track for its third consecutive week of decline as market relief turned to angst after the White House clarified US tariffs on China rose to 145%. US Treasuries resumed a selloff from earlier in the week. Equity-index futures for the S&P 500 retreated 1%. In a sign investors are seeking havens and non-US alternatives, the euro soared as much as 1.6%, the yen strengthened and gold set a new high. We check in with Mark Cranfield, Bloomberg MLIV Strategist in Singapore. Less than 24 hours after President Donald Trump backtracked on his broader, once-in-a-century trade war to prevent a meltdown in financial markets, frantic selloffs hit US stocks, bonds and the dollar Thursday as fears of a worldwide recession engulfed Wall Street. We get some market perspective from Patrick Kennedy, Founding Partner at AllSource Investment Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
We're joined by Dante Disparte, Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy at Circle, one of the biggest issuers of stablecoins (USDC) in the world. This year marks an important inflexion point for stablecoins as adoption and key regulation kicks in. We're glad to have some one like Dante who has worked at the intersection of finance, technology, and policy, including his role on the US Digital Currency Governance Consortium and the World Economic Forum. As one of the central figures behind USDC, Circle's fully-reserved dollar-based stablecoin, he breaks down the real-world applications of stablecoins, how they differ from traditional banking rails, and what this means for billions of people globally. We dive into: • How traditional banking rails are fundamentally broken, and why stablecoins collapse messaging and settlement into a single, real-time action. • Why USDC is a safer, 1:1 dollar-backed alternative to traditional banking deposits. • How stablecoins are already transforming economic life in emerging markets. • The global policy implications of programmable digital money. • Why this is not about disrupting traditional finance—but completing its unfinished work. Stablecoins represent a transformative opportunity to rebuild the global financial system in an open, instant, and borderless manner, akin to how the internet revolutionized information sharing. By eliminating intermediaries and leveraging blockchain technology, stablecoins can significantly reduce transaction costs and times, making financial services more accessible and efficient worldwide. This shift has the potential to democratize finance, enabling seamless global commerce and innovation, much like how email and the web democratized communication and information access. Key Takeaways from the Episode: 1. Stablecoins Collapse Messaging and Settlement into One Layer: Unlike traditional systems like SWIFT or PayPal, where a payment is just a message and settlement lags behind, stablecoins like USDC send the actual value along with the message—executing real-time, programmable transactions. 2. The World's Financial Plumbing Is Broken: Slow, expensive, and opaque systems benefit incumbents who profit from delays. Stablecoins offer an open, interoperable alternative—what Dante calls the "Internet of Value." 3. USDC is 1:1 Backed – Not Fractional Reserve: Circle holds 100% of reserves in cash and short-term US Treasuries. Fully transparent, independently audited, and free from commingling, USDC is designed for trust at scale. 4. Emerging Markets Are Leading Adoption: USDC is being adopted as a store of value and medium of exchange in places with volatile local currencies, enabling billions of unbanked and underbanked users to access the global economy. 5. Stablecoins Enable New Forms of Programmable Finance: From streaming payments to tokenized IP ownership, stablecoins unlock composable, automated financial systems. Think of it as building with financial Lego blocks. 6. Interoperability Is Key: Circle's Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol (CCTP) and integration with 18+ blockchains allow USDC to operate natively across ecosystems—much like email works across providers. 7. Stablecoins vs. CBDCs vs. Bitcoin: Dante lays out why stablecoins (especially private-sector ones) offer better trust, scalability, and flexibility than central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or highly volatile assets like Bitcoin. 8. Global Policy Must Catch Up: Governments should embrace rules-based competition and interoperability, rather than stifling innovation. Stablecoins are not here to replace sovereign currencies—they're here to complete unfinished work in the financial system. Join us for a masterclass in monetary innovation and policy with one of the most visionary voices in fintech. Follow our host on Linkedln to know more or subscribe to our emailing list to get new episodes directly into your inbox. Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (01:28) - What is Stablecoin? (02:15) - How does decentralized digital money differ from early platforms like PayPal? (03:46) - How does money actually settle using SWIFT and traditional banking systems? (05:47) - Why is the traditional global settlement system a black box—and what makes it so outdated? (11:10) - Why does the world need stablecoins in a modern financial system? (16:56) - Why are stablecoins like USDC gaining massive traction in emerging markets? (20:29) - How do mobile money systems like M-Pesa compare to USDC in emerging markets? (23:32) - Is USDC revolutionizing remittance corridors through partnerships in emerging markets? (27:12) - Will USDC become a part of everyday banking and be usable at points of sale? (35:47) - Does USDC operate on a full-reserve model instead of fractional reserve banking? (38:39) - Is USDC's future too dependent on the U.S. dollar's global reserve currency status? (45:59) - Can central banks like the Bank of England issue digital currencies on open-source USDC rails? (48:59) - What would a strategic Bitcoin reserve mean for U.S. monetary policy and global finance? (51:26) - Is the U.S. strategy to dominate digital finance through both USDC and Bitcoin reserves? (55:36) - What happens to local currencies if global citizens start holding USDC instead? (59:13) - Can USDC inflows help strengthen foreign exchange reserves in emerging markets like Kenya? (62:32) - What does the future of money and daily finance look like by the year 2100? (64:54) - What key regulations are needed now to shape the future of digital finance? (66:23) - Outro
SEASON 3 EPISODE 117: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:45) SPECIAL COMMENT: Trump has already LOST the tariff wars he finally claimed he paused yesterday (without really pausing). Already. Took him only eight days. From Liberation Day to a day when in any other war, literal or figurative, he would have been deposed - 8 days. And never mind how much YOU AND I think he’s crazy; a high-priced adviser to macro fund managers says “a few have quietly wondered if the president might be insane." And after Wall Street came off the ledge and got back to where it was Monday – only, what, seven trillion lost – he declared victory. “Up 2500 points. Nobody has ever heard of it. Gotta be a record.” Because he can’t admit he made a mistake; his head would fall off. His approval numbers have cratered. He’s underwater by an AVERAGE of six points. LAST Wednesday it was an average of TWO points. Since the election he’s lost 20 points among those over age 65; he’s lost 50 points among those under age 30. And he still raised the tariffs on the Chinese again – to 125 percent – because he’s mad at them. Because they of course are winning. Because the Chinese are not negotiating; the Chinese are as they have been for centuries, waiting for their opponents to DIE. The Chinese are apparently dumping our 10-Year Treasuries, driving up our debt. And they’ve opened trading partnership negotiations with the head of the European Union. And for all the claims about pausing the tariffs, a universal TEN percent tariff will be maintained. He didn't pause anything. He simply lost everything. B-Block (27:10) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Joe Manchin writes a book celebrating his middle of the road bona fides. The cover photo shows only the right half of his face, naturally. Marjorie Stupid Greene reveals she does not know what the word "Merch" means. And the president of the hockey writers' association, a bonehead named Frank Seravalli, not only defends Wayne Gretzky's attacks on Canada but his bringing FBI Director and Election Denier Kash Patel to the Ovechkin game - and calls CRITICISM of those decisions "political BS." Instead of, maybe, calling out Gretzky for BRINGING political BS into a moment of sports history. C-Block (49:15) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: She's still at it. Even as Trump's boasts of pausing the tariffs while INCREASING them on China and maintaining them on everybody else, Laura Ingraham is still carrying his water for him. It's time for me to review my dates with her last century, and the extraordinary revelation she made during the first of them about the then-nascent Republican-Media Industrial Complex.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
God's Debris: The Complete Works, Amazon https://tinyurl.com/GodsDebrisCompleteWorksFind my "extra" content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.comContent:Politics, Robbie Starbuck, NATO Shoshana Chatfield, Fannie Mae Unethical Conduct, Bill Pulte, Panama Canal, Pete Hegseth, Flu Shot Study, Trust in Science, Jack Smith Biden Staffers, CNN Harry Enten, President Trump, Tariffs, Scott Bessent, Trade Imbalance, China GDP, Kyle Bass, China's Reserve Adequacy, China's Financial Challenges, Grok Excellence, US Treasuries, Hedge Fund Treasuries, Elon vs Navarro, 2 Head Shots Suicide, Ryan Routh Stinger, Disability Claims Activist Judges, RFK Jr. Fluoride, Mike Benz, Anti-AFD Lawfare, China Trade War Options, Scott Adams~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
Donald Trump is pushing ahead with another 50 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, and there are questions about what will happen to nearly $2tn worth of pledges to invest in the US because of the levies. Plus, the FT's Katie Martin explains why a selloff in US Treasuries could mean a world of hurt for markets. Mentioned in this podcast:Donald Trump to proceed with extra 50% tariff on China as trade war escalatesUS tariffs threaten almost $2tn of investment pledges by global companies Markets could get a lot worse — and quicklyThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
It’s been a rollercoaster of a week for global markets. As President Trump goes back and forth about the size and scope of his tariffs, Bloomberg is watching one market especially closely: bonds. US Treasuries are widely seen as one of the world’s safest assets, especially in periods of financial volatility. But will they hold? On today’s episode of the Big Take DC, hosts Sarah Holder and Saleha Mohsin sit down with Bloomberg chief correspondent Liz Capo McCormick to unpack a week of sharp selloffs in the bond market, and how the swings could impact mortgage rates and student loans.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
What if Trump Discovers that Unpaid UK (and French) Debt From WWI? The current administration has tossed concepts such as “special relationships” with allies out the window. The administration seems willing to apply just about any leverage it has to obtain concessions from allies, including concessions that might reduce the US debt. Seen in that light, what will happen when Trump and the Musketeers discover that the UK and France have hundred-year old unpaid debts? With interest, that unpaid debt would now amount to a few trillion dollars. Enforcing these debts would be near impossible, except that the UK and France own a whole bunch of US Treasuries. Could the administration try to force a swap of those Treasuries into longer term obligations? Or try to use the US government's claims against the UK and France as a setoff, reducing payments on US debt held by those governments? Seems loony. But loony is normal these days. Producer: Leanna Doty
The root cause of America's economic imbalances can be traced to a single factor: the strength of the US dollar. At least, that's the view of Stephen Miran, President Trump's newly appointed Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors.In an essay published late last year, Miran argued that the dollar's strength, driven by inelastic demand for Treasuries and the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, has resulted in persistently cheap imports, reduced the competitiveness of its exports, eroded US manufacturing, and resulted in soaring deficits.His answer to this problem is a so-called Mar-a-Lago Accord, where trading partners would sell dollars and US Treasuries from their FX reserves or face higher tariffs and the removal of security guarantees.But is an overvalued dollar really to blame for America's financial problems? Would trading partners agree to the plan? And what could it mean for the US markets? In this podcast, ING's Chris Turner and Padhraic Garvey explain why they think the plan would be counterproductive and fraught with risk.
President Trump makes a pivot from Bitcoin to stablecoins in his latest policy statements. Reality check: stablecoins now account for over 50% of all crypto settlement volume, with Tether becoming the 7th largest holder of US Treasuries globally. We break down how stablecoins are being used in emerging markets, why Tron dominates the stablecoin landscape despite centralization concerns, and what this means for Bitcoin's relationship with the traditional financial system. Notes: - Tether is 7th largest buyer of US treasuries globally - Stablecoins now 50% of all crypto settlement volume - Tether holds $113 billion in treasuries - Tron handles ~40% of stablecoin transactions - Tether earns ~$4 billion yearly on Treasury yields - Trump now promoting stablecoins for dollar dominance Check out our Bitcoin scaling conference! Visit opnext.dev to learn more. Timestamps: 00:00 Start 00:34 Trump video 03:09 Reaction 06:53 Tether buying treasuries 11:08 Other stablecoins 17:35 Arch Network 18:05 The Tether Eye of Sauron 20:10 Who's using stablecoins 22:18 Where are stablecoins traded? 26:31 Volume of all crypto transactions compared 32:33 A realistic view -
Reality check: President Trump likes stablecoins more than Bitcoin. What do Bitcoiners do?You're listening to Bitcoin Season 2. Subscribe to the newsletter, trusted by over 7,000 Bitcoiners: https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.comPresident Trump makes a pivot from Bitcoin to stablecoins in his latest policy statements. Reality check: stablecoins now account for over 50% of all crypto settlement volume, with Tether becoming the 7th largest holder of US Treasuries globally. We break down how stablecoins are being used in emerging markets, why Tron dominates the stablecoin landscape despite centralization concerns, and what this means for Bitcoin's relationship with the traditional financial system.Notes:- Tether is 7th largest buyer of US treasuries globally- Stablecoins now 50% of all crypto settlement volume- Tether holds $113 billion in treasuries- Tron handles ~40% of stablecoin transactions- Tether earns ~$4 billion yearly on Treasury yields- Trump now promoting stablecoins for dollar dominanceCheck out our Bitcoin scaling conference! Visit opnext.dev to learn more.Timestamps:00:00 Start00:34 Trump video03:09 Reaction06:53 Tether buying treasuries11:08 Other stablecoins17:35 Arch Network18:05 The Tether Eye of Sauron20:10 Who's using stablecoins22:18 Where are stablecoins traded?26:31 Volume of all crypto transactions compared32:33 A realistic view-
The center-right Christian Democrats won the most votes in Germany's election, and the US stock market had its worst day in two months on Friday. Britain and India will relaunch talks on a long-awaited trade deal, plus, China's holdings of US Treasuries have fallen to their lowest level since 2009. Mentioned in this podcast:Friedrich Merz set to become Germany's next chancellor, exit polls say US stocks post worst slide in two months on gloomy economic dataChina's holdings of US Treasuries fall to lowest level since 2009UK and India relaunch trade talks in bid to boost investment opportunitiesDecaffeinated Brazilians blame Lula for surging cost of morning brewCredit: @casaljb_brasil/InstagramThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that any move to boost the share of longer-term Treasuries in government debt issuance is some ways off, given current hurdles that include elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening program. “That’s a long way off, and we’re going to see what the market wants,” Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Bloomberg Surveillance on Thursday, when asked about “terming out” sales of US Treasuries sales. “It’s going to be path dependent.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
- Launch of New Film "Unpacking the Lies" (0:00) - Update on Enoch AI Model (2:15) - Challenges in AI Model Development (4:40) - Critique of European Leaders and JD Vance's Speech (7:36) - Trump's Policies and Relations with Russia and Ukraine (11:09) - Taiwan and China Relations (18:42) - Support for Decentralized Innovation (22:09) - January 6 Restitution Lawsuit (25:29) - Book Review: "The Rise of Tyranny" (32:18) - Book Review: "Russia Hoax" (41:55) - Music Video: "Unpacking the Lies" (48:39) - Interview with Andy Schechtman on Gold Scarcity (58:11) - Trump's Geopolitical Strategy and Energy Policy (1:20:09) - Trump's Economic Policies and Personal Success Story (1:22:27) - Gold Market Analysis and Trump's Peace Deal Impact (1:24:28) - Fiscal Challenges and Debt Management (1:26:07) - Elon Musk, Dogecoin, and US Treasuries (1:28:46) - Gold Revaluation and JP Morgan's Role (1:31:17) - BRICS and Global Currency Shifts (1:38:42) - Gold Ownership and Market Trends (1:40:31) - Trump's Strategic Moves and Market Impact (1:54:18) - Final Thoughts and Market Outlook (2:00:09) For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food freedom, medical freedom, the freedom of speech, etc.). Together, we're helping create a better world, with more honest food labeling, reduced chemical contamination, the avoidance of toxic heavy metals and vastly increased scientific transparency. ▶️ Every dollar you spend at the Health Ranger Store goes toward helping us achieve important science and content goals for humanity: https://www.healthrangerstore.com/ ▶️ Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html ▶️ Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/hrreport ▶️ Join Our Social Network: https://brighteon.social/@HealthRanger ▶️ Check In Stock Products at: https://PrepWithMike.com
Foreign governments like China and Japan, along with U.S. institutions and individuals, play a critical role in holding America's $36 trillion debt. Today's Stocks & Topics: DXPE - DXP Enterprises Inc., Purchasing CDs, VTWO - Vanguard Russell 2000 ETF, Market Wrap, FMC - FMC Corp., US Treasuries: Who Owns US Debt?, ECPG - Encore Capital Group Inc., XHB - SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF, VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETF, MU - Micron Technology Inc., ANF - Abercrombie & Fitch Co., Long Term U.S. Treasury Yields.Our Sponsors:* Check out Fabric: https://fabric.com/INVESTTALK* Check out Indochino: https://indochino.com/INVEST* Check out Kinsta: https://kinsta.com* Check out ShipStation: https://shipstation.com/INVEST* Check out Trust & Will: https://trustandwill.com/INVESTAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.theflyingfrisby.comHundreds of tonnes of gold - so much so that there is now something of a shortage in London - have made their way across the Atlantic to the US to get ahead of Trump tariffs. Something like 400 tonnes have gone to the Comex alone, never mind what's gone to the private vaults of HSBC, JP Morgan et al.With a shortage of physical gold for delivery in London, waiting times now as long as eight weeks, and the Bank of England refusing to comment, there are all sorts of rumours flying about. It's not a great situation for London, which is normally the epicentre of the physical gold markets.I don't think we're going to get a proper run on gold, but it's possible nonetheless, and if we do, talk about unintended consequences...A bit of zip in the normally quite sleepy physical markets.Today, however, I wanted to give my outlook on gold for 2025. Before I do this, I have two things to plug:One is my mate Charlie Morris' newsletter, Atlas Pulse. This monthly gold report is, in my view, the best out there bar none, and it's free. More here.And, two, if you are thinking of buying gold - and I think everyone should own some - my preferred bullion dealer is the Pure Gold Company. You should get your gold or silver from them.Gold's Silent SurgeThe gold price has been rising relentlessly since November 2022.Here we are in early 2025, within a few dollars of all-time highs at $2,800.Gold is at or close to all-time highs against the Japanese yen, the euro, the Swiss franc, the Great British peso, the Aussie and Canadian dollars, and pretty much any other fiat currency you care to mention.And yet I don't recall seeing much mention of this anywhere. This is very much a stealth bull market, the best kind of bull market. It means there is plenty more hype left in the can.Private investors are almost completely ignoring gold. In Germany, normally one of the biggest buyers of physical, I gather we are seeing net selling in the retail markets. One reason is there's profit to be had, especially for those who bought during Covid - of which there are many . Two, because the economy is in the toilet and people need the money. Higher rates in recent years have dampened both investment and speculative demand for gold.A lot of the money that fuels the junior end of the mining markets also comes from retail buying, and if they're not buying bullion, they are certainly not buying miners: hence the atrophy there.So who is buying then, if the price keeps on going up? The answer, as regular readers of the Flying Frisby will be able to tell you straight away, is central banks, especially in Asia. This trend accelerating after the US began freezing Russian assets following its invasion of Ukraine.China imported 124 tonnes just in November, writes Jan Nieuwenhuijs of the Gold Observer. It has bought 1,050 tonnes since the Russian Freeze, and it is buying 400 oz bars from London, which are almost certainly making their way to the People's Bank of China - 400 oz bars do not trade on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. It is also buying roughly three times as much as it declares.The explanation is obvious. Central banks need reserve assets which other governments can't freeze, so-called bearer assets. Gold, which is value in and of itself, is the answer. There is no equal.Here we see gold as a percentage of central bank reserves is now at 20%.I doubt we go back to the heady pre-WWII days when gold made up 80-90% of reserves - money was not fiat then - but you can see the trend is very much up. It has been for 10 years now. The percentage has doubled in that time. I see no reason why it can't double again in the next ten years. 40 % of reserves held in gold seems like a reasonable number, a conservative number.Nations are, says Nieuwenhuijs, "obviously preparing for a multipolar world in which the dollar's role as a reserve asset will be gently reduced."You can look at all this and describe the process as natural and sensible asset allocation: diversification away from other government currencies, especially the US dollar. Or you can proclaim that other nations are preparing to abandon the dollar and for a new gold standard. It's probably about 80% former and 20% latter. That may well change - but we are not there yet.While nations might not be so much abandoning the dollar as they are simply increasing their gold holdings, they, are, however, reducing their holdings of US Treasuries. De-dollarisation and diversification.At the moment, the whole process is covert and benign, but it may become a lot more significant a few years from now.I urge you too to be diversified and own plenty of gold. It may well be that you are going to need it, and you're better off booking your seat on the lifeboat now while they are still available. This is especially the case if you are in the UK: there has never been a Labour government that didn't devalue, and this particular lot are flip-flopping and clueless. My guide to buying gold is here, in case of use:I don't see any reason for this central bank buying to abate, by the way. My prognosis is that it continues.What about the new President?I want to, briefly, consider gold and President Donald Trump.Here is what gold did last time he was in power.
Tom Lauricella, Morningstar Inc global markets editor, explains why the market reacted poorly to the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook. The Smart Investor newsletter editor also discusses some of 2024's biggest headlines such as inflation, the broader stock market rally, and new leadership in Washington.Why the Fed Scaled Back from Four Interest-Rate Cuts to Two for 20255Did the Market Bounce Back After the Drop Following the Fed Rate Decision?Why the Fed Isn't Saying They Are Seeing a Stronger Economy in 2025Will Trump's Tariffs Cause Inflation to Rise?Will the Market's Momentum Continue into 2025?High Yields in the Bond Market Are Benefitting InvestorsWill the Trump Administration Boost Bitcoin's Growth?How Investor's Should Approach Trump's Second Term5 Stories Investors Should Watch for in 2025 Read about topics from this episode. Subscribe to Morningstar's SmartInvestor newsletter.Stocks Tumble on New Fed Rate Forecast—Here's Why Fed Sets Stage For Fewer (or Possibly No) Rate Cuts in 2025 Forecasts for November PCE Preview Show More Moderation in Inflation What to Expect From Bitcoin in 2025 What Higher Bond Yields Mean for Markets in 2025 What to watch from Morningstar.How to Diversify Your Portfolio to Handle a Market CorrectionWhat Higher Bond Yields Mean for Markets in 2025Yes, You Can Still Find Tax-Loss Harvesting Opportunities in 2024A Simpler Medicare Part D Is Coming. Here's How It Could Save You Money Read what our team is writing:Tom LauricellaIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/
Welcome back to another episode of Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu. Today, we delve deep into a fascinating range of topics, from historical virtues and modern media dynamics to the complexities of our current political and economic landscape. Tom and Producer Drew kick things off with lighthearted banter before diving into thought-provoking discussions about the transformation of media, where digital influencers like Mr. Beast and Ronaldo outshine traditional networks, and the critical importance of honing skills before seeking fame, much like Susan Boyle's unexpected rise. We cover everything from the enduring appeal of certain male hobbies to Tom's powerful reflections on the fundamental simplicity of managing finances. Our conversation explores societal shifts, touching upon historical leadership, contemporary challenges, and the significance of clear vision in governance. SHOWNOTES 00:00 Revealing government corruption shatters naive illusions. 05:25 Government influence, Florida relocation, AI startup suppression. 08:26 A political change is affecting diverse demographics. 10:33 Voters prioritize children's future and economic improvement. 14:54 Elections matter; government impacts business and life. 18:34 Focus on immediate improvements, not future promises. 23:05 Trump's threats may escalate economic or physical warfare. 25:29 US Treasuries' risk-free status is degrading. 30:24 Managing personal finances and increasing income is complex. 31:55 Harnessing momentum is crucial for successful navigation. 36:43 Overwhelming data complicates narrative and exposes corruption. 41:09 Move forward despite adversity, like Marcus Aurelius. 41:50 Personal documented morality guides life decisions. 46:42 Inspiring figures resonate; people desire courageous leadership. 50:32 TikTok exposes talent; undiscovered gems vanish quickly. 52:26 Real-world expertise boosts confidence in media. 54:35 Confidence and power attract; reality is inescapable. 57:52 Subscribe, fight corruption, be legendary. Peace. CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS Range Rover: Explore the Range Rover Sport at https://landroverUSA.com Rosetta Stone: Check out Rosetta Stone and use my code TODAY for a great deal: https://www.rosettastone.com Betterhelp:This episode is sponsored by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at https://betterhelp.com/impacttheory and get 10% off your first month. ButcherBox:New users that sign up for ButcherBox will receive 2lbs of 100% grass fed ground beef in every box free for the lifetime of their subscription + $20 off your first box when you use code IMPACT at https://butcherbox.com/impact Netsuite:Spend less time looking backwards, and more time on what's next. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://NetSuite.com/theory Goldback: Goldbacks are currency for now, and for the future, get yours at https://impacttheory.co/GoldbackITNov Miro: Bring your teams to Miro's revolutionary Innovation Workspace and be faster from idea to outcome at https://miro.com. Legal Zoom: Launch, run, and protect your business at https://www.legalzoom.com/ – use promo code 'IMPACT' for 10% off! Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER SCALING a business: see if you qualify here. Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here. Join me live on my Twitch stream. I'm live daily from 6:30 to 8:30 am PT at www.twitch.tv/tombilyeu LISTEN TO IMPACT THEORY AD FREE + BONUS EPISODES on APPLE PODCASTS: apple.co/impacttheory FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research explains why President-elect Trump's proposed tariff plans may look different than the policies that are ultimately put in place.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research. Today on the podcast I'll be talking about what investors need to know about tariffs.It's Wednesday, Dec 4, at 2 pm in London.There's still over a month before Trump takes office again. But in the meantime he's started sending messages about his policy plans. Most notably, for investors, he's started talking about his ideas for tariffs. He's floated the idea of tariffs on all imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. He's talked about tariffs on all the BRICs countries unless they publicly dismiss the idea of pursuing an alternative reserve currency to the US dollar. In short, he's talking about tariffs a lot.While we certainly don't dismiss Trump's sincerity in suggesting these tariffs, nor the ability for a President to execute on tariffs like these – well, mostly anyway – it's important for investors to know that the ultimate policies enacted to address the concerns driving the tariff threats could look quite different than what a literal interpretation of Trump's words might suggest. After all, there are plenty of examples of policies enacted on Trump's watch that address his concerns that were not implemented exactly as he initially suggested.The Tax Cuts and Jobs act is a good example, where Trump advocated for a 15 percent corporate tax rate but signed a bill with a 21 percent tax rate. Another is the exceptions process for the first round of China tariffs, where some companies got exceptions based on modest onshoring concessions. These examples speak to the idea that procedural, political, and economic considerations can shape policy in a way that's different from what's initially proposed.This is why our base case for the US policy path in 2025 includes higher tariffs announced shortly after Trump takes office; but with a focus on China and some exports from Europe; and implementation of those tariffs would ramp up over time, as has been suggested by key policy advisors. There's broad political consensus on a stronger tariff approach to China, and there's already executive authority to take that approach. Something similar can be said about Europe, but with a focus more on certain products than across imports broadly. However, we see scope for Mexico to avoid incremental tariffs through negotiation. And a global tariff via executive order risks getting held up in court, and we're skeptical even a Republican-controlled Congress would authorize this approach.Of course we could be wrong. For example it's possible the incoming administration might be less concerned about the economic challenges posed by a rapid escalation of tariffs. So if they start quicker and are more severe than we anticipate, then our 2025 economic projections are probably too rosy, as are our expectations for equities and credit to outperform over the next 12 months. The US dollar and US Treasuries might be the outperformer in that scenario.So stick with us, we'll be paying attention and trying to tease out the policy path signal from the media noise from the new administration.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found The economy is breaking down at an accelerated rate, credit rejection rates are spiking. DOGE is the answer to bring accountability and transparency. Ron Paul has now joined the DOGE team, he will go after the [CB] system. Gold purchases accelerate. The [DS] is pushing the last part of the 16 year plan. They are pushing nuclear war. The fake news is already reporting WWIII has started. The senate was very important. Moves and countermoves, Trump is using game theory on the [DS]. The [DS] is continually pushing the notion that they want a smooth transition, which means they do not. They are pushing the narrative that Trump has not signed the Transition agreement. In reality he does not need to, the transition happens on Jan 20. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1859737201078161412 rejections skyrocketed to 45%, a new record since the survey began in 2013. Additionally, mortgage and auto loan rejection rates DOUBLED over the last 3 years to 23% and 14%, respectively. It has rarely been tougher to access credit in the US. Is the debt bubble bursting? https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1859763233114177711 https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/1859944926282453065 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1859958585415155917 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1859645031553892708 overseas have not kept up with massive government debt issuance. At the same time, more countries have been increasingly diversifying their currency reserves by adding more gold. Are foreign governments losing confidence in US Treasuries? https://twitter.com/RonPaul/status/1859980691062358463 Political/Rights https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1859652312173773108 https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1859588165184651310 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1859665794801557724 https://twitter.com/ItsJuliansRum/status/1859819470501577141 3151 Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: f36d89 No.5801868 Mar 20 2019 22:04:25 (EST) Anonymous ID: 69d95e No.5801615 Mar 20 2019 21:55:45 (EST)1478371153525.png 1478378611222.jpg 1478380454361.jpg 1478381287814.jpg >>5801537 ayy >>5801615 Geopolitical/Police State https://twitter.com/DougAMacgregor/status/1859780424312160447 U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York: In May 2018, Judge Naomi Reice Buchwald ruled that Trump's Twitter account, being used for official purposes, constituted a public forum under the First Amendment, and therefore, blocking individuals based on their viewpoints was unconstitutional. Second Circuit Court of Appeals: In July 2019, this court upheld the lower court's decision, ruling unanimously that Trump's blocking of Twitter users was a violation of the First Amendment. They argued that the president's account served as a public forum for discussing government business. Trump steps up battle with media by commanding GOP to ‘kill' PRESS Act President-elect Donald Trump is stepping up his long-running war with the media by demanding Republicans nix a reporter shield law working its way through Congress. “REPUBLICANS MUST KILL THIS BILL!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. The bill in question is the Protect Reporters from Exploitative State Spying Act, which would guarantee protections against government seizure of reporters' records. It unanimously passed in the House earlier this year but may now be imperiled in the Senate with just weeks to go before this session of Congress ends. Source: washingtonexaminer.com
With a second Trump term at least partially reflected in the price of global markets, we focus on two key debates for the longer-term: Potential tariffs and fiscal policy. ----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research. Today on the podcast – some initial thoughts on the market implications of a second term for President Trump.It's Wednesday, Nov 6, at 2pm in New York.As it became clearer on election night that Former President Trump was set to win a second term in the White House, markets began to price in the expected impacts of resulting public policy choices. The US dollar rallied, which makes sense when you consider that President Trump has argued for higher tariffs, something that could hurt rest of world growth more than the US. US Treasuries sold off and yield rose, something that makes sense given President Trump supports tax policy choices that could meaningfully expand deficits. And US equity markets rallied led by key sectors that could benefit fundamentally from extended tax breaks and deregulation, including industrials and energy. But with a second Trump term now at least partially reflected in the price of markets across assets, it gets harder from here to understand how markets move. There's several key debates we'll be tracking, here's two that are top of mind. First, how will tariffs be implemented? Per the work of our economists, higher tariffs can raise inflation and crimp growth. They estimated that a blanket 10 per cent tariffs and 60 per cent tariffs on China imports would raise inflation by 1 per cent and dampen GDP growth by 1.4 per cent. Some pretty big numbers that would really challenge the soft-landing narrative and positive backdrop for equities and other riskier assets. Other approaches may carry the same risks, but to a lesser degree. Tariffs exercised via executive authority would, in our view, likely have to be targeted to countries and products – as opposed to implemented on a blanket basis. So, the approach to tariffs could represent a substantial difference in the outlook for markets. Second, how quickly and to what degree might US deficits expand? Our presumption has been that fiscal policy action, regardless of US election outcome, wouldn't become clear until late 2025, largely governed by the need to address several provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expire at the end of that year. But, while not our base case it's of course possible that a Republican Congressional majority could deliver on tax cuts earlier – and perhaps even in larger size. The resolution to this debate could make the difference between yields climbing even higher than they have recently and taking a pause at these levels. Bottom line, as the election ends and the Presidential transition begins, there's a lot about policy implementation that we can learn to guide our market strategy. We'll be paying attention to all the key policymaker statements and deliberations, and feed through the signal to you.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.