Podcasts about us treasuries

Most American investors never access this..Brazilian government bonds: 12% annual yield.US Treasuries: 4.25%.The spread is 7.75%. Nearly triple.Most American investors never access this.Why?Operational barriers:• CPF (Brazilian tax ID) requirements• Brokerage account complexity• Compliance and language gapsI spent 20 years in Brazilian fixed income.141 certifications. Published on Investing.com.Built a 72-hour program that eliminates these barriers.4-minute breakdown below.—Solomon Von HerclesteinBrazilian Fixed Income SpecialistInvesting.com Contributor | 141 Certifications#FixedIncome #YieldInvesting #WealthManagement

Self Created Valuation Boosts Apple Announces new Podcast push AI – A breakdown Playing them like a fiddle – Warner Brothers PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - A NEW CTP just announced - China releasing new AI models - AI - A breakdown - we are on overload - Big Employment news.... Markets - Self Created Valuation Boosts - Apple Announces new Podcast push - Playing them like a fiddle - Warner Brothers Quick Note - Going to rip up the playbook on something this week on TDI Podcast. Anyone who owns an annuity should listen to what is about to come on next Sundays show.....  No Agenda... Olympics - Anything to discuss? MONEY FOR ALL - The average tax refund is 10.9% higher so far this season, compared to about the same point in 2025, according to early filing data from the IRS. - The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the average refund amount was $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up from $2,065 about one year prior, the IRS reported Friday night. - As of Feb. 6, the total amount refunded was more than $16.9 billion, up 1.9% compared to last year, according to the IRS release. That figure reflects current-year returns only. - This is partly because there were excess-witholdings from last year on the rules changed and paycheck withholdings were not adjusted. This is a one time situation.. Emplyment - 4.3% - "Better" than expected payrolls number - A major revision was released last Wednesday. Overall 2025 job growth was much weaker than initially reported. The total net change for the full year 2025 was revised down from +584,000 jobs to just +181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) — an average of only about 15,000 jobs added per month instead of ~49,000. This made 2025 one of the weakest years for job creation in recent non-recession periods. - Employment levels were consistently overstated throughout 2025 by roughly 800,000 to over 1 million jobs, peaking around mid-year. For example: By March 2025, the level was revised down by 898,000. By December 2025 (preliminary), down by 1,029,000. - Monthly changes were also adjusted downward in most cases (e.g., August's originally reported -26,000 became a larger loss of -70,000; September's +108,000 became +76,000). - The revisions reflect normal annual benchmarking, but this one was unusually large (larger than the typical 0.2% average over the prior decade), likely due to factors like overestimation of business births or other data mismatches. - In short, the data reveals that the U.S. labor market in 2025 was significantly softer than the monthly headlines suggested at the time — job growth was overstated by a substantial margin, painting a picture of a much weaker employment picture for the year. AI Updates - While U.S. markets have been focused on the impact of Anthropic and Altruist's tools on software and financial services, China's tech giants have released AI models this week that have shown advancements in robotics and video generation. - Google is reporting that China's AI models are just MONTHS behind western models - However - is this progress? In a video demo, Alibaba showed a robot with pincers for hands that appeared to be able to count oranges, pick them up and place them in a basket. It was also shown taking milk out of a fridge. - Alibaba on Monday unveiled a new artificial intelligence model Qwen 3.5 designed to execute complex tasks independently, with big improvements in performance and cost that the Chinese tech giant claims beat major U.S. rival models on several benchmarks. - Zhipu AI — which trades as Knowledge Atlas Technology in Hong Kong said the model approaches Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.5 in coding benchmarks while surpassing Google's Gemini 3 Pro on some tests. - Shares of MiniMax also jumped Thursday after it launched its updated M2.5 open-source model with enhanced AI agent tools. Grok Update - Grok, Elon Musk's AI chatbot, has been gaining ground in the U.S. over the past months, data showed, even as it draws global censure and regulatory scrutiny after being used to generate a wave of non-consensual sexualized images of women and minors. - U.S. market share of the tool rose to 17.8% last month from 14% in December, and 1.9% in January 2025, according to data from research firm Apptopia. - Men are still the largest % users of Grok ~ 78% (down from 89% in April 2025) AI Market Share - ChatGPT's share slumped to 52.9% last month from 80.9% in January last year, while Gemini's grew to 29.4% from 17.3% over the same period. AI Market Share InfoGrapic and AI Understanding - Have we gone through this? - At its core, AI is technology that lets machines perform tasks that normally require human intelligence — things like understanding language, recognizing images, making decisions, or solving problems. - Modern AI (especially since ~2022) is dominated by machine learning — systems that learn patterns from huge amounts of data instead of being explicitly programmed rule-by-rule. - Inference is the "using" or "applying" phase of AI — when a trained model takes new input and produces an output / prediction / answer. Contrast with training (the "learning" phase): ------ Training ? Like a student studying for years: very compute-heavy, expensive, done once (or rarely) on massive servers/GPUs, adjusts billions of parameters based on examples. ------ Inference ? Like the student taking a test or doing their job: much faster, cheaper, runs on your phone/laptop/cloud, uses the fixed knowledge from training to respond instantly. - gentic AI takes regular AI (like chat models) to the next level: instead of just answering questions or generating text, these systems act autonomously to achieve goals with minimal human help. "Agentic" comes from "agency" — the ability to make decisions, plan, use tools, take actions, adapt, and even learn from results — like a smart digital employee rather than just a smart answer machine. AI Infographic Last AI Item - A shortage of memory chips is hammering profits, derailing corporate plans, and inflating price tags on various products, with the crunch expected to get worse. - The fundamental reason for the squeeze is the buildout of AI data centers, with companies like Alphabet and OpenAI buying up large shares of memory chip production, leaving consumer electronics producers fighting over a dwindling supply. - The resulting price spikes are causing concern, with some warning of "RAMmageddon" and others predicting that memory chip prices will go "parabolic", bringing lavish profits to some companies but painful prices to the rest of the electronics sector. Here is something: - Gallup will no longer track presidential approval ratings after nearly 90 years - Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the Washington, DC-based management company began tracking the president's job performance 88 years ago. - Gallup told USA TODAY it will no longer publish "favorability ratings of political figures," a decision it said "reflects an evolution in how Gallup focuses its public research and thought leadership." - Gallup said the ratings are now "widely produced, aggregated and interpreted, and no longer represent an area where Gallup can make its most distinctive contribution." - "Our commitment is to long-term, methodologically sound research on issues and conditions that shape people's lives," the company wrote, adding that its work will continue through the Gallup Poll Social Series, the Gallup Quarterly Business Review, the World Poll and more. - Seems like they are unable to SHAPE opinion due to social media etc.....? Apple Podcast Update - Big news! - Apple on Monday announced that it will bring a new integrated video podcast experience to Apple Podcasts this spring. - The move comes as video viewership continues to reshape podcasting. About 37% of people over age 12 watch video podcasts monthly, according to Edison Research. - The update brings Apple Podcasts more in-line with its competitors Spotify, YouTube and now Netflix, which have increasingly leaned into video podcasting. -“Twenty years ago, Apple helped take podcasting mainstream by adding podcasts to iTunes, and more than a decade ago, we introduced the dedicated Apple Podcasts app,” said Eddy Cue, Apple's senior vice president of Services, in a statement. “ - By bringing a category-leading video experience to Apple Podcasts, we're putting creators in full control of their content and how they build their businesses, while making it easier than ever for audiences to listen to or watch podcasts.” M&A - Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips. - Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company's common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027. - The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement. Inflation - This helps - PepsiCo, will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results. Miran - Moving - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed. - He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed board No Biggie???? - There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room - JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events. - At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients' heads during operations. - Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient's nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient's skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured. Cuba - The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel - Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems - No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel - This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out. Dalio Warning -  Legendary investor Ray Dalio said on Tuesday the world was “on the brink” of a capital war. - He said central banks and sovereign wealth funds were already preparing for measures like foreign exchange and capital controls. - "When money is weaponized using measures like trade embargoes, blocking access to capital markets, or using ownership of debt as leverage." - “Capital, money, matters,” Dalio said Tuesday. “We're seeing capital controls … taking place all over the world today, and who will experience that is questionable. So, we are on the brink — that doesn't mean we are in [a capital war now], but it means that it's a logical concern.” - Could this be why gold and siver are being hoarded (physical assets over digital currency? - Is China's edict to banks to diversify away from US Treasuries a sign? Self Boosted Valuation - Waymo is aiming to raise about $16 billion in a financing-round that would value it at nearly $110 billion, Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter. - Alphabet would provide about $13 billion to the autonomous driving firm while the rest would come from investors including Sequoia Capital, DST Global and Dragoneer Investment Group, the report added. - Soooooo - Waymo is a unit of Alphabet.... Alphabet providing 80% of the funding that boosts valuations..... Hmmmmmmmm Warner Brothers -  Warner Bros Discovery Inc is considering reopening sale talks with Paramount Skydance Corp after receiving its amended offer. - The Warner Bros board is discussing whether Paramount could offer a path to a superior deal, which may ignite a second bidding war with Netflix Inc. - Paramount submitted amended terms that addressed several concerns, including covering a fee owed to Netflix and offering to backstop a Warner Bros debt refinancing. Economics Coming Up - Short Week - plenty of Reports - Wednesday - Durable Goods, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, FOMC Minutes - Thursday - Philly Fed, Initial Claims - Friday: PCE, Personal Income and Spending, GDP for Q4 (3.6%) ----- New Home Sales, UMich Feb Final   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLAR Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Brazilian government bonds: 12% annual yield.US Treasuries: 4.25%.The spread is 7.75%. Nearly triple.Most American investors never access this.Why?Operational barriers:• CPF (Brazilian tax ID) requirements• Brokerage account complexity• Compliance and language gapsI spent 20 years in Brazilian fixed income.141 certifications. Published on Investing.com.Built a 72-hour program that eliminates these barriers.4-minute breakdown below.—Solomon Von HerclesteinBrazilian Fixed Income SpecialistInvesting.com Contributor | 141 Certifications#FixedIncome #YieldInvesting #WealthManagement

Jack Prandelli of The Merchants News Substack stopped by, and we had a blast visiting about huge changes in the oil and gas markets. At the end of the podcast, we also discuss how we should restructure electricity prices for consumers. 1. China's efforts to reduce its reliance on the US dollar:  - China is shorting US Treasuries and buying gold to try to reduce its dependence on the US dollar in global trade, especially for commodities like oil.  - However, China still relies heavily on importing oil and gas, which is priced in US dollars through the petrodollar system.2. The growth of US LNG exports to Europe:  - The US is rapidly expanding its LNG export capacity, which is helping Europe replace Russian gas.  - A key company, OneOk, owns a large portion of the pipeline infrastructure market supporting US LNG exports.3. The performance and strategies of major oil and gas companies:  - Integrated companies like Exxon and Chevron are performing better than more specialized companies like Occidental.  - European oil majors like BP and Total are struggling more, with BP considering asset sales.4. OPEC's challenges in managing oil production and pricing:  - OPEC has struggled to meet its own production targets, leading it to consider changes to its pricing mechanisms.  - There are geopolitical tensions, like the US trying to influence OPEC members like Venezuela and Iran.5. The role of natural gas, renewables, and nuclear power in the energy transition:  - The guests discuss the pros and cons of different energy sources, arguing for a balanced approach that ensures reliable and affordable energy.  - There are concerns about the ability of renewables alone to provide reliable power without fossil fuel or nuclear backup.Stu and Jack cover a wide range of topics related to the global energy markets, geopolitics, and the energy transition, with a focus on oil, gas, and LNG. Based on the transcript analysis, here are the main topics discussed:**1. China's De-Dollarization Strategy**China is actively working to reduce its dependence on the US dollar by shorting US Treasuries and accumulating gold. However, this effort faces a fundamental constraint: China's massive need for imported oil and gas, which are priced in US dollars through the petrodollar system, keeps it tethered to dollar-denominated trade.**2. US LNG Export Expansion**The US is rapidly scaling up its liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, playing a crucial role in helping Europe transition away from Russian gas supplies. One Oak, a significant player, controls a large portion of the pipeline infrastructure that supports these exports.**3. Oil and Gas Company Performance**The discussion compares how different energy companies are faring:- Integrated majors like Exxon and Chevron are outperforming more specialized companies like Occidental- European oil majors (BP, Total) are struggling more significantly, with some considering asset sales**4. OPEC Production and Pricing Challenges**OPEC faces difficulties meeting its own production targets and is considering adjustments to its pricing mechanisms. Geopolitical tensions also play a role, with the US attempting to influence OPEC members like Venezuela and Iran.**5. Energy Transition and Power Sources**We debate the role of natural gas, renewables, and nuclear power in the energy transition, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach that maintains reliable and affordable energy while questioning whether renewables alone can provide consistent power without fossil fuel or nuclear backup.Connect with Jack on his LinkedIn here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/prandelligiacomo/Check out the Merchant News Substack: https://themerchantsnews.substack.com/Thank you To Steve Reese and Reese Energy Consulting for sponsoring the podcast:https://reeseenergyconsulting.com/Check out the Energy News Beat Substack: https://theenergynewsbeat.substack.com/Check out The Energy News Beat Website: https://energynewsbeat.co/Questions on Investing in Oil: https://sandstoneassetmgmt.com/invest-in-oil-and-gas/

In this episode of the Crazy Wisdom Podcast, host Stewart Alsop sits down with Lars van der Zande, founder and CEO/technical architect of Inkwell Finance, for what Lars describes as his first-ever podcast appearance. The conversation covers a wide range of blockchain infrastructure topics, including Lars's work with Sui and Solana blockchains, the innovative capabilities of Ika's programmatic wallets and blockchain of signatures, and how Inkwell Finance is building revenue-based financing solutions for on-chain entities—from AI agents to protocols. They explore the evolving landscape of crypto regulation, the merging of traditional finance with blockchain technology, the future of decentralized legal systems, and how the user experience barrier is being lowered through technologies that eliminate constant transaction signing. Lars also discusses Inkwell's embedded financing approach and their pre-seed fundraising round.Links mentioned:- Inkwell's website: inkwell.finance- Inkwell on Twitter: @__inkwell- Lars on Twitter: @LMVDZandeTimestamps00:00 Introduction to Inkwell Finance and Technical Architecture02:06 Understanding Sui and Solana: Blockchain Dynamics05:55 The Role of Ika in Inkwell Finance11:51 Leviathan: Revenue Generation and Financing in Crypto17:38 The Future of AI Agents and Programmatic Wallets23:23 Smart Contracts: Legal Implications and Future Directions25:06 The Future of Inqvil Finance25:42 Decentralization and Its Evolution27:32 The Merging of Traditional and Crypto Systems29:33 Global Financial Dynamics and Market Reactions31:48 The Collapse of Traditional Financial Systems32:46 Jurisdictional Shifts in the Crypto World33:59 Legal Systems and Blockchain Integration35:57 On-Chain Credit and Financial Opportunities39:29 The Role of AI in Finance41:30 Learning from Peer-to-Peer Lending History43:14 Disruption in Insurance and Risk Management44:54 On-Chain vs Off-Chain Data46:54 The Evolution of the Internet and Blockchain49:12 Future Subscription Models in BlockchainKey Insights1. Ika's Revolutionary Blockchain Signature Technology: Lars discovered Ika, a blockchain of signatures built on Sui that enables any blockchain transaction to be signed without revealing the underlying message. Using patented 2PC MPC technology, Ika splits key shares across validators and encrypts them in transit, performing complex cryptographic operations that allow smart contracts on Sui to generate signatures for transactions on any other blockchain. This eliminates the need to build separate smart contracts on each blockchain, fundamentally changing how cross-chain interactions work and opening possibilities for truly interoperable decentralized applications.2. Programmatic Wallets vs Traditional Wallets: Traditional wallets like MetaMask require manual user approval for every transaction through a front-end interface, but Ika's D-wallet introduces programmatic wallets with policy-based controls embedded in smart contracts. These wallets can execute transactions based on predetermined conditions checked against on-chain data like Oracle prices, without requiring individual user signatures. For example, a Bitcoin D-wallet can hold native Bitcoin without wrapping or bridging to a custodian, and smart contract policies determine when and how that Bitcoin can be transferred, creating unprecedented security and automation possibilities for decentralized finance.3. Inkwell's Revenue-Based Financing Model: Inkwell Finance is building Leviathan, a revenue-based financing platform for on-chain entities including protocols, AI agents, and individual traders with verifiable track records. Borrowers receive capital based on their on-chain performance metrics like sharp ratio and drawdown, with loan repayment automatically deducted from their revenue stream. The profit split structure allocates approximately 60% to borrowers, 30% to lenders, and 10% split between Inkwell and integrating platforms. This creates a sustainable lending model where flight risk is minimized through D-wallet policy controls that restrict how borrowed capital can be used.4. Wallet-as-a-Protocol and the Future of User Experience: The crypto industry is moving toward embedded wallet solutions that eliminate the friction of traditional wallet management, with Wallet-as-a-Protocol representing the next evolution beyond services like Privy and Dynamic. Unlike current embedded wallets that lock users into specific applications, Wallet-as-a-Protocol enables single sign-on across multiple applications while users maintain control of their keys. Combined with app-sponsored gas fees, this approach allows non-crypto-native users to interact with blockchain applications without knowing they're using crypto, removing the biggest barrier to mainstream adoption and creating web2-like user experiences on web3 infrastructure.5. AI Agents as Financial Entities: AI agents are emerging as revenue-generating entities with on-chain transaction histories that create verifiable track records for creditworthiness assessment. Inkwell Finance is specifically targeting this market, recognizing that AI agents will need wallets and capital to operate effectively. The programmatic nature of D-wallets pairs perfectly with AI agents, as policy controls can restrict agent behavior to specific smart contract interactions, preventing unauthorized fund transfers while allowing automated trading or revenue generation. This creates a new category of borrower that operates 24/7 with completely transparent performance metrics, fundamentally different from traditional loan recipients.6. Cross-Chain Liquidity Without Asset Transfer: Ika's technology enables users to take loans against revenue generated on one blockchain and deploy that capital on entirely different blockchains without moving their original liquidity positions. For instance, someone earning yield on Sui's Fusol protocol could borrow against that revenue stream and deploy capital on Solana opportunities, effectively creating multiple on-chain businesses that generate their own credit scores and revenue to service debt. This ability to read state across different blockchains from within smart contracts opens possibilities for multi-chain strategies that don't require withdrawing capital from productive positions, maximizing capital efficiency across the entire crypto ecosystem.7. The Convergence of Traditional Finance and Crypto Infrastructure: The regulatory landscape is rapidly evolving with initiatives like the Genius Act and Clarity Act creating frameworks where traditional financial systems merge with crypto infrastructure through mechanisms like stablecoins backed by US treasuries. Companies are increasingly establishing entities in the United States to access capital networks and Delaware's established legal framework while issuing tokens through jurisdictions like Switzerland. This hybrid approach, combined with emerging concepts like Gabriel Shapiro's "cybernetic agreements" that make smart contract parameters legally enforceable in traditional courts, suggests the future isn't pure decentralization but rather a sophisticated integration of on-chain and off-chain legal and financial systems.

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Tariffs have caused negative feelings around the world regarding the U.S. Some say if they sold all their US bonds it could sink our stock market. Is that true? Subscribe or follow so you never miss an episode! Check out Fire Your Financial Advisor on YouTube! Learn more at GoldenReserve.com or follow on social: Facebook & LinkedIn.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:1) The Seattle Seahawks won their second Super Bowl title on Sunday, beating the New England Patriots by a score of 29-to-13 at Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. The Seahawks' defense came out strong, recording six sacks and forcing two interceptions against Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III was named Super Bowl MVP for his offensive efforts, becoming the first running back to win the award since the Denver Broncos' Terrell Davis in 1998.2) Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility, according to people familiar with the matter. Officials urged banks to limit purchases of US government bonds and instructed those with high exposure to pare down their positions, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private deliberations. The directive doesn’t apply to China’s state holdings of US Treasuries. Communicated verbally to some of the nation’s biggest banks in recent weeks, the guidance reflects growing wariness among officials that large holdings of US government debt may expose banks to sharp swings, the people said. The worries echo those made by governments and fund managers elsewhere amid a brewing debate over the safe haven status of US debt and the appeal of the dollar.3) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a historic election triumph, positioning her as the nation’s strongest leader in the postwar era in an outcome that sent stock prices and bond yields soaring. Her ruling Liberal Democratic Party achieved the biggest post-war victory for a single-party in a general election in Japan, an extraordinary transformation of fortunes for a party that was on the ropes last summer before getting behind the nation’s first ever female premier in October. The LDP secured a two-thirds super majority in the 465-seat lower house by itself, according to public broadcaster NHK. A tally of results by NHK early Monday showed that the ruling coalition had won 352 seats in the lower house, expanding its previous razor-thin majority of 233 by a considerable margin. The LDP’s haul of 316 seats gives it a higher proportion of representatives in the lower house than any other party in post-war Japan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks began the week higher after last Friday's rally on Wall St, where the DJIA topped the 50k level for the first time.The Nikkei 225 also hit a fresh record high after PM Takaichi's landslide election victory and supermajority.China is reportedly urging banks to curb US Treasuries exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 1.2% on Friday.Highlights include Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan), Norwegian GDP (Q4), Mexican Inflation (Jan), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China is reportedly urging banks to curb USTs exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.Japanese PM Takaichi's LDP party won a landslide victory at the snap election on Sunday, securing a super majority; JPY bid, JGBs lower and Nikkei 225 soars.European bourses are broadly firmer, whilst US equity futures move lower; Nikkei 225 soars post-LDP victory.USD hit on China-USTs report, JPY strengthens post-LDP, whilst GBP lags on regional political woes.JGBs set a bearish tone for global fixed income, with USTs also dragged on the China-USTs report; Gilts digest the McSweeney resignation and reports that PM Starmer faces further pressure to resign.WTI and Brent are flat. Precious metals continue to rebound as the PBoC buys gold for a 15th consecutive month.Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textFriday's rally in both equities and cryptos may be tested today. Japanese PM Takaichi scores an impressive win; verbal interventions boost the yen. Dollar on the back foot, also due to a Chinese directive about US Treasuries. Pound remains under pressure as political crisis deepens.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your dayOn today's podcast:(1) Keir Starmer’s future is in the balance after a crisis over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington claimed the UK prime minister’s closest aide.(2) Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to rein in their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concerns over concentration risks and market volatility, according to people familiar with the matter.(3) Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a historic election triumph, positioning her as the nation’s strongest leader in the postwar era in an outcome that sent stock prices and bond yields soaring.(4) Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian described the Friday nuclear talks with Washington as “a step forward,” even as he pushed back against any attempts at intimidation.(5) The Seattle Seahawks have won the Superbowl -- beating the New England Patriots 29 to 13, with the halftime performance by Puerto Rican artist Bad Bunny being attacked as "an affront to the Greatness of America".(6) American activist investor Steven Wood’s one-man mission to overhaul the governance and culture of Swatch Group just became a lot harder. The company’s shares — the most shorted in Europe — recently had their best day ever, and are up 15% this year.Podcast Conversation: Why Some People Live to 100 Despite Bad HabitsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

I can't tell you how many messages I am getting from people about silver.Have I seen this video, read this article, looked at this data, listened to this podcast. JP Morgan is about to go bust, the paper markets are overwhelmed, the price is manipulated, China is setting the real price, this is a reset. And so on.The problem with speculative manias, especially when silver is involved, is that enormous amounts of misinformation get spread, much of it about things you and I, as ordinary investors, can do nothing about.Take it all with a pinch of salt is my advice.What I find interesting is that similar amounts of misinformation are being spread about bitcoin. The price is being manipulated on the futures markets, Strategy is about to go bust, Michael Saylor is this, that and the other, and so on. It's game over.The only real difference is that one is in a bull market, which may or may not be over, and the other is in a bear market, which may or may not be over. Sentiment for both is at extremes, albeit at different ends of the investment spectrum.During every crypto winter I've known, people start to give up on it. The future is no longer what it once was. The tech is flawed. It's going to zero. It's not real. It's a scam invented by the CIA, Jeffrey Epstein, Elon Musk, take your pick.Again, take it all with a pinch of salt.Remember, neither situation is permanent.There is a case for owning both, and I do in my portfolio.I'd rather bitcoin was $150,000 and more, of course I would. But I'll take a sportsman's bet that, from current levels over the next 12 months, bitcoin will outperform gold, and probably silver.I know some readers prefer tangible precious metals. Others prefer bitcoin. Both points of view are fine. Each to their own. But I'm an own-both guy. Over the past six months the disappointment in bitcoin has been more than offset by the gains in precious metals. In previous years the reverse has been true, and the reverse will be true again.With the extraordinary accumulation of gold by central banks, the rising price, Triffin's Dilemma, and de-dollarisation, I do think it is possible some kind of reset is coming as far as gold is concerned. The price does need to go much higher for it to overtake the dollar as central banks' primary reserve asset. It has already overtaken US Treasuries.But that does not mean silver is going to be remonetised. Silver's monetary role was always as a medium of exchange, and we now live in a world where exchange is almost entirely digital. Yes, I would prefer to be paid in physical silver. There is something quite spiritual about being paid for a job in physical silver. But so what. Convenience wins.Silver's role as a store of wealth was minimal. That is where gold still has use.Yes, silver has umpteen industrial uses. It is a critical metal and in short supply. A rising gold price will carry silver higher too, just as it has platinum in recent months. But I don't buy the monetary reset arguments as far as silver is concerned.I do get them about gold though.Anyway, good Sunday to you.This week I appeared on Geoff Norcott's podcast. If you fancy a watch or a listen, here are links to Spotify and Apple podcasts.If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend, whereever you are int he world, is The Pure Gold Company. More here.ICYMI here is this week's commentaryThis coming week I'll be looking at the tax loss trades and I am aiming to have more on oil as well.Until next timeDominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

I can't tell you how many messages I am getting from people about silver.Have I seen this video, read this article, looked at this data, listened to this podcast. JP Morgan is about to go bust, the paper markets are overwhelmed, the price is manipulated, China is setting the real price, this is a reset. And so on.The problem with speculative manias, especially when silver is involved, is that enormous amounts of misinformation get spread, much of it about things you and I, as ordinary investors, can do nothing about.Take it all with a pinch of salt is my advice.What I find interesting is that similar amounts of misinformation are being spread about bitcoin. The price is being manipulated on the futures markets, Strategy is about to go bust, Michael Saylor is this, that and the other, and so on. It's game over.The only real difference is that one is in a bull market, which may or may not be over, and the other is in a bear market, which may or may not be over. Sentiment for both is at extremes, albeit at different ends of the investment spectrum.During every crypto winter I've known, people start to give up on it. The future is no longer what it once was. The tech is flawed. It's going to zero. It's not real. It's a scam invented by the CIA, Jeffrey Epstein, Elon Musk, take your pick.Again, take it all with a pinch of salt.Remember, neither situation is permanent.There is a case for owning both, and I do in my portfolio.I'd rather bitcoin was $150,000 and more, of course I would. But I'll take a sportsman's bet that, from current levels over the next 12 months, bitcoin will outperform gold, and probably silver.I know some readers prefer tangible precious metals. Others prefer bitcoin. Both points of view are fine. Each to their own. But I'm an own-both guy. Over the past six months the disappointment in bitcoin has been more than offset by the gains in precious metals. In previous years the reverse has been true, and the reverse will be true again.With the extraordinary accumulation of gold by central banks, the rising price, Triffin's Dilemma, and de-dollarisation, I do think it is possible some kind of reset is coming as far as gold is concerned. The price does need to go much higher for it to overtake the dollar as central banks' primary reserve asset. It has already overtaken US Treasuries.But that does not mean silver is going to be remonetised. Silver's monetary role was always as a medium of exchange, and we now live in a world where exchange is almost entirely digital. Yes, I would prefer to be paid in physical silver. There is something quite spiritual about being paid for a job in physical silver. But so what. Convenience wins.Silver's role as a store of wealth was minimal. That is where gold still has use.Yes, silver has umpteen industrial uses. It is a critical metal and in short supply. A rising gold price will carry silver higher too, just as it has platinum in recent months. But I don't buy the monetary reset arguments as far as silver is concerned.I do get them about gold though.Anyway, good Sunday to you.This week I appeared on Geoff Norcott's podcast. If you fancy a watch or a listen, here are links to Spotify and Apple podcasts.If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend, whereever you are int he world, is The Pure Gold Company. More here.ICYMI here is this week's commentaryThis coming week I'll be looking at the tax loss trades and I am aiming to have more on oil as well.Until next timeDominic This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Ai slop as usual for shownotes. If HKJ pays me some of those HKDs then I'll maybe make an effort. Until then, eat your robot kibble and enjoy the show! Australia Day tensions at home and political shocks abroad drive this packed episode of The Two Jacks. Joel (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack unpack the Liberal–National implosion, leadership manoeuvring, hate‑speech laws and neo‑Nazi “martyrs” springing from Australia Day rallies and a near‑catastrophic device in Perth. They then cross to the US for the fallout from the ICE killing of Minneapolis nurse Alex Pretty, Kristi Noem's precarious future, Trump's political instincts, and Mark Carney's Davos warning that we now live in a world with “no rules.” Along the way they dissect Brexit's economic hangover, EU over‑regulation, India's Republic Day contrast with Australia's low‑key national day, and finish with sport: Premier League title nerves, Australian Open heat controversies, bushfires, and a final detour through film censorship trivia in Ireland.00:00 – Theme and intro00:25 – Welcome back to The Two Jacks; Joel (Jack the Insider) in Australia and Hong Kong Jack set the scene for episode 142, recorded 27 January, the day after Australia Day.​Australian politics and the Liberal–National implosion00:40 – Coalition “no more”: the decoupling of Liberals and Nationals, and whether Anthony Albanese is the Stephen Bradbury of Australian politics or a quiet tactician.​01:10 – How Labor's racial vilification moves and 18C history boxed the opposition in; Susan Ley's failed emergency‑sitting gambit on antisemitism laws.​02:00 – Firearms law changes and new powers to ban hate groups like Hizb ut‑Tahrir and the National Socialist Network, and the role of ASIO referrals and ministerial discretion.​03:10 – Canavan's “slippery slope” fears about bans being turned on mainstream groups, and what that reveals about the Nationals' hunger for anti‑immigration rhetoric under pressure from One Nation and Pauline Hanson.​Centre‑right parties in a squeeze04:00 – The Nationals as the “five‑percenters” who pull the coalition's agenda with a small vote share; listener Bassman calls them the “un‑Nationals.”​05:00 – Global “tough times” for centre‑right parties: the pincer between moving to the centre (and leaving a vacuum for far‑right populists) or moving right and losing the middle.​05:40 – Hong Kong Jack's argument for broad churches: keeping everyone from sensible One Nation types to inner‑city wets under one tent, as Labor did with its far‑left “fruit loops” in the 1980s.​07:00 – Decline of small‑l liberals inside the Liberal Party, the thinning ranks of progressive conservatives, and the enduring “sprinkling of nuts” on the hard right.​Leadership spills and who's next07:20 – Susan Ley's lonely press conferences, Ted O'Brien's silence, and the air of inevitability about a leadership spill before or by budget time.​08:20 – Why the leadership needs “strength at the top”: the Gareth Evans line to Hawke – “the dogs are pissing on your swag” – as a metaphor for knowing when to go.​09:20 – Conversation about Angus Taylor, Andrew Hastie, Ted O'Brien and even Tim Wilson as possible leaders, and why the wrong timing can make almost anyone opposition leader.​10:40 – History lesson: unlikely leaders who flourished, from Henry Bolte in Victoria to Albanese, once dismissed by his own colleagues as a long shot.​11:40 – Albanese's long apprenticeship: learning from Howard's cautious style and the Rudd–Gillard chaos, and his instinct for the national mood.​Listener mail: Nationals, Barnaby and “public bar” politicians13:00 – Listener Lawrence compares One Nation to Britain's Reform Party; asks if Barnaby Joyce's baggage (drought envoy rorts, “Watergate,” drunken footpath photo) undermines his retail skills.​14:20 – Debating whether Barnaby ever was the “best retail politician” in the country; why he works brilliantly in rural and regional pubs but is “poison in the cities.”​16:10 – The “public bar” politician ideal: Barnaby as hail‑fellow‑well‑met who genuinely likes the people he's talking to, contrasted with Whitlam and Fraser looking awkward in 1970s pub photo ops.​17:20 – John Howard scrounging a fiver to shout a round, Barry Jones dying in Warrnambool pubs, and why Bob Hawke and Tony Abbott always looked at home with a schooner.​Australia Day, antisemitism and street violence18:00 – Australia Day wrap: The Australian newspaper's “social cohesion crisis” framing after antisemitism, violence and extremist rhetoric.​19:10 – Perth's rudimentary explosive device: ball bearings and screws around a liquid in a glass “coffee cup” thrown into an Invasion Day crowd at Forrest Place; police clear the area quickly.​21:00 – Melbourne: small March for Australia turnout, scuffles between their supporters and Invasion Day marchers, arrests likely to follow.​22:10 – Sydney: March for Australia rally of around 2,000 ending at Moore Park, open mic session, and the selection of a man wearing a Celtic cross shirt who launches into a vile antisemitic rant.​23:20 – His subsequent arrest in Darlinghurst and the Section 93Z charge (publicly threatening or inciting violence on racial or religious grounds), with possible three‑year jail term and $11,000 fine.​24:40 – Why the speech appears to meet the elements of the offence, and how such defendants are quickly turned into martyrs and crowdfunding heroes by the extreme right.​26:10 – The psychology of self‑styled martyrs seeking notoriety and donations; parallels with “Free Joel Davis” signs after threats to MP Allegra Spender.​Australia Day vs India's Republic Day27:20 – Australia Day clashing with India's Republic Day: Joel only just realises the overlap; Jack has known for years.​28:00 – History recap: Australia Day as a 1930s invention, not a national holiday until Keating's government in 1995; its big cultural take‑off in the 1988 Bicentennial year.​29:10 – India's enormous Republic Day parade: 10,000+ guests, missiles and tanks on show, EU leaders in attendance, congratulations from President Trump and President Xi – easily out‑shining Australia's low‑key day.​30:00 – Why big military parades feel culturally wrong in Australia; the discomfort with tanks and squeaky‑wheeled machinery rolling down main streets.​30:30 – The 26 January date debate: protests by Invasion Day marchers vs “flag shaggers,” plateauing protest numbers, and the sense that for most Australians it's just another day off.​31:20 – Arguments for a different nation‑building day (maybe early January for a built‑in long weekend), and the need for a better way to celebrate Australia's achievements without performative patriotism.​32:40 – Local citizenship ceremonies, Australia Day ambassadors and quiet country‑town rituals that still work well in spite of the culture war.​Minneapolis outrage, ICE shootings and US politics34:20 – Turning to the United States: the shooting of ICU nurse Alex Pretty by ICE agents in Minneapolis and the shock it has injected into US domestic politics.​34:50 – Video evidence vs official narrative: Pretty appears to be disarmed before being shot; the administration initially claiming he was planning a massacre of ICE agents.​35:40 – Trump's early blame of Democrat officials and policies, then a noticeable shift as outrage spreads more broadly across the political spectrum and the Insurrection Act chatter cools.​36:20 – Tom Homan's deployment to Minneapolis, the demotion of Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino, and reports that Homan will now report directly to President Trump rather than Kristi Noem.​37:10 – Internal GOP friction: suggestions Noem relished confrontation, while Homan did not; speculation Noem may be the first cabinet‑level casualty.​38:00 – Use of children as bait in immigration operations, American citizens detained, and two civilians shot dead by ICE; discussion of likely multi‑million‑dollar compensation exposure.​39:00 – Allegations of bribery and “missing 50 large,” the checkered backgrounds of some ICE agents and rumours about extremist links and failed cops finding a home in ICE.​40:00 – A snap YouGov poll: 46% of respondents wanting ICE disbanded, 41% opposed, and how this feeds the narrative that Noem will be thrown under the bus.​Sanctuary cities, federal power and Pam Bondi's letter41:10 – Trump's boastful but error‑strewn talk on Article 5 of the NATO treaty, and his correction that still belittled allies' sacrifices in Afghanistan.​41:40 – Casualties by nation: US 2,461, then significant losses from the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Australia, Poland, Spain and others – disproving Trump's “America alone” framing.​42:30 – Sanctuary cities vs federal supremacy: recalling the 2012 Arizona case where the Supreme Court confirmed immigration enforcement as a federal responsibility, and how that collides with sanctuary policies.​43:10 – Pam Bondi's letter to Minnesota's governor after the second ICE killing: reported threat to pull ICE agents in exchange for electoral records, and the ominous implications of such demands.​Greenland, Davos and market games44:00 – Trump's Greenland obsession revisited: from bluster at Davos about tariffs on European allies to a supposed “deal” that no‑one, including the Danes, can define.​44:40 – How tariff threats knocked markets down, then his Davos announcement walked them back and sent markets up; Ted Cruz warning Trump that crashing 401(k)s and high inflation would make the midterms a bloodbath.​45:40 – Japan and the US bond market: a brief panic in Japanese bonds, a Danish super fund's sale of US Treasuries, and the longer‑term vulnerability given that Japan, China and the EU hold so much US debt.​46:30 – Trump's relentless pressure on the Fed for lower rates in an inflationary environment, and the comparison with Erdogan's disastrous low‑rate, high‑inflation experiment in Turkey.​Davos speeches and a world with no rules47:10 – Mark Carney's standout Davos speech: we now live in a geopolitical environment with “no rules,” and the post‑WWII rules‑based order has largely broken down.​47:50 – Carney's planned March visit to Australia and likely address to a joint sitting of Parliament, plus his reputation as a sharp, articulate central banker.​48:20 – Hong Kong Jack's scepticism about “international law” as more fiction than practice; non‑Western powers paying lip service while ignoring it in reality.​49:00 – The German Chancellor's more consequential Davos speech on EU failures, competitiveness, and the need to reinvent Europe, backed in by Italian PM Giorgia Meloni.​49:40 – The “Sir Humphrey” view of the EU: you can only reform Brussels from the inside, not from outside as Brexit Britain is discovering.​Brexit's economic hit50:10 – Chancellor Mertz's critique of EU over‑regulation and the “world champions at regulation” line; the EU as an anti‑competitive behemoth that lost its free‑trade roots.​50:50 – Why countries like Spain struggle alone but “pack a punch” within the EU's collective GDP; Brexit as a decision to leave the world's biggest trading bloc.​51:20 – UK Office for Budget Responsibility analysis: since the 2016 referendum, estimated UK GDP per capita by 2025 is 6–8% lower than it would have been, with investment 12–18% lower and employment 3–4% lower than the “remain” counterfactual.​52:10 – How these losses emerged slowly, then accumulated as uncertainty persisted, trade barriers rose and firms diverted resources away from productive activity.​52:40 – Jack challenges the counterfactual: notes that actual UK GDP growth is only a couple of points below EU averages and doubts that UK governments would have outperformed Europe even without Brexit.​53:20 – Joel's rejoinder that the OBR work is widely accepted and that Brexit has created profound long‑term impacts on Britain's economy over the next 5–10 years.​Sport: cricket, Premier League and Australian Open heat55:20 – Australian cricket's depth: promising leg‑spinners and other talent juggling Shield cricket with gigs in the Caribbean Premier League, Pakistan Super League and more.​55:50 – Premier League title race: Arsenal's lead cut from seven to four points after a 3–2 loss to an invigorated Manchester United that also beat City in the derby.​56:30 – The “sugar hit” of a new coach at United, reverting to a more traditional style and the question of how long the bounce will last.​57:10 – Australian Open “Sinner controversy”: oppressive heat, the heat index rules for closing the roof, Jannik Sinner cooked at one set all before a pause, roof closure and air‑conditioning – and then a comfortable Sinner win.​58:00 – Accusations about coach Darren Cahill lobbying tournament boss Craig Tiley, and why the footage doesn't really support conspiracy theories.​58:30 – Djokovic's soft run after a walkover, the emergence of 19‑year‑old American Tien with Michael Chang in his box, and Chang's devout‑Christian clay‑court glory at Roland Garros.​59:20 – Heatwave conditions in southern Australia, fires in Victoria and the Otways/Jellibrand region, and a shout‑out to firefighters and residents under threat.​Final odds and ends01:00:20 – Closing thoughts on Australia's weather extremes, hoping for a wind change and some respite for the fireys.​01:00:50 – Jack's trivia nugget: Casablanca was once banned in Ireland for not being “sufficiently neutral” and not kind enough to the Nazis, segueing to bans on Lady Chatterley's Lover and Australian censorship history.​01:02:00 – Sign‑off from Joel (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack, promising to track the Perth bombing case, hate‑speech prosecutions, Canberra leadership moves and the unfolding Minneapolis/ICE scandal in future episodes.

On today's podcast:1) President Trump said he was looking to “de-escalate” in Minnesota with a reshuffle of the leadership running his deportation effort in the state following widespread outcry over the killing of two US citizens by federal agents. Still, the president denied he was pulling back his immigration crackdown and said that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem would remain in her post, as he looked to signal a recalibration rather than a retreat in the aftermath of the Jan. 24 fatal shooting of 37-year-old intensive care nurse Alex Pretti by a Border Patrol agent during an enforcement operation. Meantime, US Representative Ilhan Omar was charged at by a man who appeared to squirt an unknown liquid on her during a town hall gathering in Minneapolis, as she called for consequences for the federal officials overseeing President Trump’s aggressive immigration policies.2) President Trump’s relaxed tone about the dollar selloff is fueling speculation the US currency is at the start of a longer-term decline. The dollar suffered its deepest one-day drop since last year’s tariff rollout after Trump said on Tuesday he didn’t think the currency had weakened excessively. Bloomberg’s dollar gauge slid as much as 1.2% as the comments sapped the appeal of the greenback and US Treasuries — boosting what has become known as the debasement trade. The dollar’s recent decline is great for US businesses, Trump told reporters in Iowa. While that’s in line with previous commentary from US officials, his remarks moved currency markets late Tuesday, partly because they appeared to validate the steep decline in the greenback in recent sessions.3) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell may try to direct attention back to the economy this week, with the US central bank widely expected to hold interest rates steady after three straight reductions. But Powell’s first press conference since the Fed was served grand jury subpoenas — and coming days after the Supreme Court heard arguments regarding the attempted removal of another Fed governor — is bound to include questions about political pressure, central bank independence and what the Fed chief plans to do after his term as chair ends in May. A decision to hold rates steady this month is likely to garner broad support from policymakers following a series of contentious cuts. While the majority of officials agreed in those instances to backstop a weakening labor market, another group of policymakers pushed for the focus to remain on elevated inflation.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Daniel Lam talks about how US Treasuries' positioning has moved to much more neutral territory, and why we continue to be pro-risk overall.Speaker: - Daniel Lam, Head of Equity Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.

Wall Street wavered overnight, with the S&P 500 briefly topping the 7,000 mark before pulling back as investors looked ahead to the Fed decision and big tech earnings. Meanwhile, US Treasuries fell and equities struggled for direction after the Fed held rates steady. Elsewhere, European shares slipped, weighed down by weakness in luxury stocks. Commodities saw oil prices hover near four-month highs, while gold surged past US$5,300 for the first time. Locally, Aussie shares are expected to edge lower amid renewed rate hike jitters. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news we need to keep an eye on the 'Sell America' trade, which until now has been more headlines that substance and mainly about China's divestment in US Treasuries. But the Greenland kerfuffle has triggered a serious rethink by many pension fund managers, and more are taking this action.But first, the week ahead will be a relatively quiet one locally on the data front, but we will get a big range of December banking sector data, allowing us to cap the 2025 year on a number of important metrics. In Australia, the key event will be Wednesday's CPI data where it is expected to rise to 3.6%, the final indicator before next week's RBA rate review.Globally, all eyes will be on the gold price and its expected push up through US$5000/oz which could come early in the week.And in the US, all eyes will be on the Fed and its January 29 meeting, amid increasingly contrasting takes by voting members on the appropriate rate path. But most things related to public policy are in turmoil in the US, and the Fed's position is just part of that. We will be watching for bond market reactions.Elsewhere, official interest rate decisions are expected in Canada, Brazil, and Sweden, and the Bank of Japan will publish meeting minutes.An don't forget it is a holiday today in the north of the North Island (Auckland Anniversary Day), and in Australia (Australia Day),In the first news up today, China released its December FDI data overnight and it was negative again. For all of 2025 foreign direct investment fell -9.5%, following a sharp -24.7% fall in 2024 and that makes it the third consecutive year of contraction. December alone recorded a good pickup from November but even with that it was -7% lower than the December 2024 month. But at least it didn't shrink as it did in November from October.China also release minimum wage rate data that showed 27 of the country's 31 provincial jurisdictions have increased monthly minimum wages over the past year, with half introducing double-digit rises.In an interview with state media Xinhua, the Chinese central bank governor indicated that cuts to their interest rates and reserve ratio requirements are on the cards in 2026.Taiwan said industrial production surged more than +21% in December from the same month a year ago, the strongest growth since May. For all of 2025 it was up +16.7%, so the latest activity is an acceleration. But their local retail sector is not showing the same exuberance, up just +0.9% in December from a year ago but down -0.2% for all of 2025. Consumers there are prioritising saving over spending, just like in the country to their west.Japanese inflation eased to 2.1% in December from 2.9% in November, the lowest since March 2022. Food inflation fell to a 13-month low of +5.1%, driven by the slowest rise in rice prices in 16 months.The Japanese January 'flash' PMIs were quite positive with private sector output expanding at their quickest rate for nearly a year-and-a-half to start 2026.The Japanese central bank reviewed its monetary policy and no change was made, held at 0.75% - because an election is imminent. But now inflation concerns seem to be easing too. But markets are on alert for official intervention to support the yen.In India, their 'flash' January PMIs rose across both sectors, maintaining the very high rates of economic expansion there.We are starting to get the early January PMI reports for many key economies. The US factory version was little-changed in a modest expansion and it was the same for their services sector. But both recorded slightly better new order flows. Both noted cost pressures from their tariff-taxes. But as you will note from below this expansion lags most of the other large global economies.The Conference Board's leading economic indicator tracking for the US isn't positive reading, with the latest update reporting further declines.In Canada, their retail sector reported good gains in November, up +3.1% from a year ago, but these may not have extended into December, according to their overnight update.In the EU, output continues to rise in January and business confidence strengthened. That raised their factory PMIs to expansion, but their services PMI's hesitated.In Australia this week, they posted stronger than expected labour market data. That has sharply changed financial market pricing. And in turn there has been a rush by banks, both a major (NAB) and some challengers, to hike their fixed home loan rates today. They get their December CPI result next week and it is widely expected to challenge the upper end of their policy tolerance. If it does, suddenly Australian floating mortgage rates are at risk of a rise on February 3, 2026. If they do hike then, the Aussie policy rate will be 3.85% (3.60% +25 bps). And that will put it 160 bps higher than the RBNZ current 2.25%. It has been 14 years since this difference was that large.In Australia, private sector output expanded at its fastest pace in five months in December according to the S&P Global 'flash' PMI report. Both the factory and services sector expansions picked up, the services sector more than the factory sector however. Faster new order growth, including for exports, was a noted feature.And we should probably note that China received its first shipment of iron ore from their giant African mine at Simandou, Guinea. This likely marks a shift in China's iron ore import focus, likely to Australia's detriment.The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.24%, down -2 bps from this time Saturday. And here is something to keep an eye on, Europe's largest pension fund cut its holdings of US Treasury debt sharply in 2025, a trend that seems to be gathering steam, the 'sell America' trade, one started by Norway's sovereign wealth fund late last year.The price of gold will start today at US$4983/oz, up a minor +US$1 from Saturday bit still a new record again. US$5000 could come quickly now. Silver is up +US$2/oz at US$103/oz and also a record high. Platinum ihas eased marginally to US$2741/oz.American oil prices are holding at Saturday's at just on US$61/bbl, while the international Brent price is firmish, now just under US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, still at about 59.4 USc. That makes it almost a -2c loss for the greenback for the week. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 63.1, and up +10 bps from Saturday, its highest since late September, and up +150 bps for the week.And we should probably note that the official Chinese yuan setting by the Peoples Bank of China slipped below 7 to the US dollar in Saturday's fixing, the first time it has done that since May 2023. Although to be fair, most currencies are rising against the USD, ours included.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,968 and down -2.0% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Zhan Chen outlines ICMA's engagement with members and regulators on the implications of the SEC's US Treasury clearing mandate and market readiness challenges.

US equities and the dollar fell in response to transatlantic tension over Greenland, and the FT's Robin Wigglesworth breaks down the idea of Europe leveraging its US Treasuries to influence President Donald Trump. Plus, Netflix said that the entertainment industry remains “intensely competitive”, and China is selling drone components to Russia and Ukraine. Mentioned in this podcast:Dollar and US stocks fall as Trump says ‘no going back' on Greenland bidCould Europe really leverage its $12.6tn pile of US assets?Netflix highlights industry competition as it seeks Warner Bros deal approvalThe Chinese suppliers that could decide the drone war in UkraineCredit: ReutersNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Victoria Craig, and produced by Sonja Hutson. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann and Michael Lello. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This is a recap of the top 10 posts on Hacker News on January 20, 2026. This podcast was generated by wondercraft.ai (00:30): Danish pension fund divesting US TreasuriesOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46692594&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(01:55): De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46693346&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(03:21): I'm addicted to being usefulOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46690402&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(04:46): The Overcomplexity of the Shadcn Radio ButtonOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46688971&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(06:12): Porsche sold more electrified cars in Europe in 2025 than pure gas-powered carsOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46686640&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(07:37): A 26,000-year astronomical monument hidden in plain sight (2019)Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46695628&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(09:03): Nvidia Stock Crash PredictionOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46693205&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(10:28): Nova Launcher added Facebook and Google Ads trackingOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46686655&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(11:54): California is free of drought for the first time in 25 yearsOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46698660&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(13:20): Running Claude Code dangerously (safely)Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46690907&utm_source=wondercraft_aiThis is a third-party project, independent from HN and YC. Text and audio generated using AI, by wondercraft.ai. Create your own studio quality podcast with text as the only input in seconds at app.wondercraft.ai. Issues or feedback? We'd love to hear from you: team@wondercraft.ai

From Netflix’s earnings pop to a bond-market shock out of Tokyo - markets are suddenly on edge. Netflix posts a near-30% jump in quarterly profits, but shares slide as investors digest higher content spending and a massive all-cash bid for Warner Bros., aimed at outflanking Paramount. We zoom out to Wall Street’s sharp sell-off as geopolitical tensions flare and volatility spikes. Then to Japan, where a sudden bond rout rattles global markets and raises fears of contagion beyond Tokyo. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns of looming “capital wars” as foreign holders rethink US Treasuries. Plus: UP or DOWN on United Airlines, Pop Mart, Busy Ming, Indonesia stocks - and a surprising airline angle tied to weight-loss drugs, hosted by Michelle Martin with Ryan Huang.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Die US-Futures sind am Mittwoch wieder leicht schwächer – nach dem heftigsten Abverkauf seit Oktober. Der „Sell America“-Trade bleibt das Thema: Der Dollar gibt erneut nach, während die Rendite der 10-jährigen US-Staatsanleihe am Dienstag kurz über 4,3% sprang. Auslöser ist Trumps Eskalation im Grönland-Streit: Er droht bis zu 25% Zölle gegen acht NATO-Staaten, sollte Europa den Deal blockieren – und lässt offen, wie weit er gehen würde. In Davos kontert EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen: Die Zölle seien ein Fehler, Europas Antwort werde „geschlossen und proportional“ ausfallen. Macron bringt sogar das EU-„Anti-Coercion Instrument“ ins Spiel – eine Art wirtschaftliche Bazooka gegen US-Unternehmen. Dazu kommt ein Signal aus Dänemark: Akademiker Pension steigt aus US-Treasuries aus – wegen Sorgen um US-Schulden und die politische Lage. Noch kein Crash, aber die Gemengelage bleibt toxisch – und die Märkte wirken anfällig, falls die Rhetorik weiter hochdreht. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. ► Mehr Einblicke: https://bit.ly/360wallstreetpc * Impressum: https://www.360wallstreet.de/impressum *Werbung

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe Danes are pushing back and they are planning to sell all US Treasuries. The EU is moving forward with the Great Reset. The US and EU are moving in opposite directions. SC hearing the Fed case, Cook committed fraud. Message is clear, globalism has failed. The [DS] is now planning to push the agenda of shutting down the midterm elections. They are pushing an insurrection to push Trump into shutting down the election. The opposite will happen, Trump is preparing to make it possible to have one day voting. The message is clear, expose the criminal syndicate and the crimes they have committed to the people of this country. Then once the people understand, arrest those involved. Finally win the midterms to have accountability. This is not just a 4 year election.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2013609922974421502?s=20  push for Greenland. https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2013591319399092551?s=20 https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2013563044270383434?s=20 Europe is going for a digital Euro which will allow people to be cut off financially in 2029 if they say anything the government doesn't like    https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2013589829951615468?s=20 Supreme Court to hear Trump case on firing Federal Reserve governor  Howard Lutnick: “Globalism Has Failed”…  The fully engaged Trump MAGAnomic team begin their outlines to the World Economic Forum in Davos with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and the top line announcement, “Globalism has failed the United States of America.”   Lutnick explains the reason are for President Trump's policy. Why would the EU destroy it's own energy policy?  “Why would Europe agree to be ‘net-zero' in 2030, when they don't make a battery,” he asked.  Thus, the pragmatic realism of policy intersects with the hypocritical action and creates an outcome that no one can explain.  “So, if they go 2030, they are intentionally deciding to be subservient to China who makes the batteries,” he continued.  This makes absolutely no sense. Source: theconservativetreehouse.com Political/Rights https://twitter.com/KristiNoem/status/2013275291385319855?s=20   last 6 weeks, our brave DHS law enforcement have arrested 3,000 criminal illegal aliens including vicious murderers, rapists, child pedophiles and incredibly dangerous individuals. A HUGE victory for public safety. There is MASSIVE Fraud in Minneapolis, at least $19 billion and that's just the tip of iceberg. Our Homeland Security Investigators are on the ground in Minneapolis conducting wide scale investigations to get justice for the American people who have been robbed blind. MAKE AMERICA SAFE AGAIN https://twitter.com/rawsalerts/status/2013058985125929230?s=20 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/2013363079086567449?s=20 https://twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/2013419999000424488?s=20   Minnesota Transgender State Rep. Leigh Finke Calls on Anti-ICE Protestors to Storm More Churches  Minnesota transgender State Rep. Leigh Finke called on leftists to storm more churches in protest of ICE. Far-left anti-ICE protestors stormed Cities Church in St. Paul, Minnesota, on Sunday. Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/2013337519853834307?s=20  ” Don Lemon can go to hell. But he must go to federal prison first. https://twitter.com/AAGDhillon/status/2013311806647738613?s=20   anything but a Government job. Investigate these Corrupt Politicians, and do it now! https://twitter.com/RealJessica/status/2013413159663534169?s=20 https://twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/2013437081947640243?s=20   DOGE Geopolitical https://twitter.com/AwakenedOutlaw/status/2013431594967802038?s=20   candidates who will do precisely that. Turns out you can just do things. https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2013607858760196486?s=20 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2013614189823004938?s=20   https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/2013597058142294419?s=20 https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2013624149948723648?s=20    extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING. Thank you for your attention to this matter. PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP https://twitter.com/HungaryBased/status/2013364583168098337?s=20   https://twitter.com/nettermike/status/2013455319201128884?s=20   Cold War – Eisenhower → Kennedy: nonstop negotiations for bases, radar, missiles. Post–Cold War – Clinton/Bush/Obama: expanded Arctic security & missile defense. 2019 – Trump: said publicly what presidents discussed privately for 150+ years. The U.S. didn't “suddenly” want Greenland. It's been defending it, negotiating it, and embedding there since the 1800s. Greenland = Arctic power, shipping lanes, missiles, minerals. Trump didn't invent it. He said the quiet part out loud. https://twitter.com/scrowder/status/2013340689522925582?s=20  2/3 of NATO defense costs. That imbalance, and the arrogance behind it, is why Greenland is on the table.   https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2013591373006676322?s=20   Reports: Iranian Regime Accused of Using Chemical Agents in Crackdown on Protesters  The Iranian regime is accused of using deadly chemicals against the protesters who want the regime replaced. Growing allegations that the Islamic Republic of Iran may have used chemical agents against protesters have intensified scrutiny of the regime's most recent crackdown, described by observers as the deadliest suppression of public dissent in the country's modern history. The claims gained momentum following the circulation of footage from Sabzevar showing Iranian security forces equipped with protective gear typically associated with hazardous chemical environments, as well as testimony from protesters in Tehran describing prolonged and unusual medical symptoms after exposure to what authorities labeled “tear gas.” Video at Iran So Far Away.     source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/GBNT1952/status/2013441161247998050?s=20 This is how states demonstrate commitment along a shared line of effort without firing a shot: visible logistics, presence, and implied backing that complicate an opponent's decision cycle. This is also why the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group is on the way to the Middle East as we speak. From a doctrinal standpoint, this kind of move deliberately raises the escalation ladder, forcing US planners to account not just for Iranian responses, but for second and third order effects involving a near peer competitor. That reality likely explains why President Trump has avoided striking Iranian targets, because any kinetic action now risks collapsing the problem set from a regional contingency into a multi theater confrontation. In simple terms, Iran stops being a standalone target and becomes part of a larger system tied to Chinese interests, and no serious commander ignores force posture, alliance signaling, and deterrence dynamics when weighing an OPLAN. China obviously understands this, which is precisely why these moves matter: they restrict American freedom of action by design, without ever needing to engage directly. Thus the Iran problem becomes even more complex. War/Peace https://twitter.com/DougAMacgregor/status/2013468575055405338?s=20 https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/2013426712839614628?s=20 Oh Dear – The Wall Street Journal Just Realized, President Trump is Making U.N. Functionally Obsolescent  The Wall Street Journal just realized the purpose of President Trump inviting world leaders to a new structure of global leadership. As the outlet contemplates the mission of the “Gaza Board” they recognize the bigger intention, the nullification of the United Nations. WASHINGTON DC – President Trump has expanded the mission of his proposed Gaza Board of Peace into a global body that would take on the role mediating conflicts currently held by the United Nations and carry a $1 billion fee for a permanent seat, according to a charter sent to prospective members. “It's hard not to read this as an attempt to establish a precedent in Gaza that could be used elsewhere in terms of saying that Trump is going to be calling the global shots here, and you either fall in line or you're not part of the process,” said Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations. (read more) Figured that out all on their own, did they? Source: theconservativetreehouse.com Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2013471087640686700?s=20 BUSTED: California Ordered to Return $1+ BILLION After Dr. Oz–Led Audit Exposes Federal Healthcare Funds Spent on Illegal Immigrants The Trump administration has dropped the hammer on California and a coalition of deep-blue states after a sweeping federal audit uncovered more than $1.3 billion in misused federal healthcare funds spent on non-emergency medical care for illegal immigrants, a clear violation of federal law. A Federal auditors identified nearly $1.4 billion owed back to U.S. taxpayers, with California alone accounting for the overwhelming majority: California: ~$1.3 billion New York: ~$30.7 million Illinois: ~$29.8 million Minnesota: ~$12.7 million Oregon: ~$5.4 million Washington: ~$2.3 million Washington, D.C.: ~$2.1 million Colorado: ~$1.5 million TOTAL: ~$1.394 billion These funds were billed to the federal government for routine medical care, not emergencies, an explicit violation of Medicaid rules. WATCH: https://twitter.com/USAttyEssayli/status/2013360442626973796?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2013360442626973796%7Ctwgr%5E80a417827250e274cad382abb10aebc715484685%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F01%2Fbusted-california-ordered-return-1-billion-after-dr%2F Source: thegatewaypudit.com https://twitter.com/FBI_Response/status/2013361891712631238?s=20   are th https://twitter.com/BehizyTweets/status/2013417355272130860?s=20 https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/2013350008733487510?s=20   brackets of 8% and 10% on people making over $600K.  – A new 10% tax bracket for anyone making over $1M. – 3.8% investment tax on top of state income taxes. – Raise the hotel tax. – New personal property tax on landscaping equipment. – Ban gas powered leaf blowers. – Guarantee illegal aliens free education. – Make it illegal to approach somebody at an abortion clinic. – Extend the time absentee ballots can be received after election day to three days – Allow people to cast their votes electronically through the internet. – Expand ranked-choice voting. – Extend the deadline for ballot curing to one week after election day. – Redact the addresses of political candidates from FOIAs. – Add Virginia to the National Popular Vote Compact for presidential electors. – Make it illegal to hand count ballots. – $500 sales tax on firearm suppressors . – “Assault weapons” and large capacity magazine ban. – 11% sales tax on all firearms and ammunition. – Prohibit outdoor shooting of a firearm on land less than 5 acres. – Lower the criminal penalties for robbery. – Ban the arrest of illegal aliens in courthouses. – Remove mandatory minimum sentences. – Allow localities to install speed cameras.  Replace Columbus Day with “Indigenous Peoples Day.” https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/2013371388653117889?s=20  an existential threat to their party.” President Trump's Plan The Insurrection Act could be a dress rehearsal for interfering in the midterms President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act, a statute first enacted in 1792, allowing him to deploy the military inside the United States in response to protests in Minnesota. The largely peaceful protests intensified after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency officer shot and killed Reneé Good, a Minneapolis mother, after an encounter. “If the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don't obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the Patriots of ICE who are only trying to do their job, I will institute the INSURRECTION ACT,” Trump wrote last Thursday morning on Truth Social, adding that the move would “quickly put an end to the travesty that is taking place in that once great state.” He has already alerted 1,500 troops in Alaska for possible deployment to Minnesota. If he does it, the action will certainly face legal challenges. Occasional acts of violence do not an insurrection make. But don't bet on the Supreme Court to block Trump from invoking the law. Before this court, the bottom line is that Trump usually wins.   Americans have been traditionally uncomfortable with the use of the military for domestic law enforcement. Granted, the law gives the president power to deploy troops in an emergency. Trump tried it with the National Guard in Chicago but was shot down by the Supreme Court because of the statutory requirement of showing that “regular forces,” namely the military, would not be effective in executing the law.  Does Trump see the deployment of the military in Minnesota as a dress rehearsal for the armed forces policing key polling places to intimidate voters and seize voting machines? A slippery slope is always dangerous, and a slippery slope from a fragile democracy to a malignant authoritarianism is a real red flag for all of us. Source: thehill.com https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2013682627941630020?s=20 https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2013329534729285982?s=20   It's all one giant criminal conspiracy, imbedded within our own system. Uprooting it, while managing public perception, is not an easy or straightforward task. This is why the Insurrection Act and the NG Quick Reaction Force are so important, because the enemy we are facing is within. Foreign adversaries have infiltrated the United States, and they used the Democrat Party as a vehicle to destroy this nation from within. The US MIL must be on standby to safeguard the public, because the Dems are going to try to burn this nation to the ground in an attempt to avoid accountability for their crimes . That's what you are witnessing right now. A cold/warm civil war, that the Dems are trying to turn into a hot civil war. https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/2013410848186798440?s=20  https://twitter.com/thomasjeans/status/2013481182785077577?s=20  https://twitter.com/justicecometh/status/2013434601935376795?s=20  https://twitter.com/TheNatConvo/status/2010225316598559209?s=20  https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2013577244950851725?s=20   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

The average stock in the US rose yesterday, but investors shifted away from technology and bank stocks. European equities reached a new all-time high, though German stocks experienced their first decline in eleven days. Geopolitical tensions and announcements from the Trump administration led to demand for US Treasuries driving yields lower and also caused volatility in precious metals and oil, which rose initially but then declined. Weakness in US technology is affecting Asia, however, the main equity indices there remain stable. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses the factors behind silver's incredible rally, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, talks about why he anticipates a positive earnings season overall.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:51) - Silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research (11:04) - Earnings season preview: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (14:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Is Bitcoin losing its "Digital Gold" status to traditional metals? Host Mark Longo and Bill Ulivieri of Cenacle Capital Management kick off 2026 by breaking down a frustratingly quiet crypto market. While BTC and ETH move like "widows and orphans" stocks, a new institutional player—The Canton Network—is appearing on the horizon. In this episode, we dive into: The BTC Breakdown: Analyzing the massive gap between Bitcoin and Gold performance. Volatility Shifts: How IBIT and TradFi are killing the legendary "crypto upside skew." Altcoin Universe: Why Ethereum is "sleeping" and what's next for Solana and Circle (CRCL). The "Drumroll" Moment: Bill introduces the Canton Network—the institutional play for US Treasuries on the blockchain. The 2026 Crystal Ball: Mark and Bill place their bets on where the VIX ends the year. This episode is brought to you by Amberdata. Eliminate infrastructure headaches and access granular digital asset data today at www.amberdata.io .

Is Bitcoin losing its "Digital Gold" status to traditional metals? Host Mark Longo and Bill Ulivieri of Cenacle Capital Management kick off 2026 by breaking down a frustratingly quiet crypto market. While BTC and ETH move like "widows and orphans" stocks, a new institutional player—The Canton Network—is appearing on the horizon. In this episode, we dive into: The BTC Breakdown: Analyzing the massive gap between Bitcoin and Gold performance. Volatility Shifts: How IBIT and TradFi are killing the legendary "crypto upside skew." Altcoin Universe: Why Ethereum is "sleeping" and what's next for Solana and Circle (CRCL). The "Drumroll" Moment: Bill introduces the Canton Network—the institutional play for US Treasuries on the blockchain. The 2026 Crystal Ball: Mark and Bill place their bets on where the VIX ends the year. This episode is brought to you by Amberdata. Eliminate infrastructure headaches and access granular digital asset data today at www.amberdata.io .

US shares finished the first week of the year higher, led by gains in materials and chipmaker stocks, while US Treasuries ended mixed following the latest jobs data. Elsewhere, European markets closed at record highs after Glencore surged on takeover interest from Rio Tinto. In commodities, oil prices rose as traders assessed potential supply risks from Iran and Russia, while gold prices advanced following a softer-than-expected US payrolls report and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Back home, Aussie shares are set to open higher as investors look ahead to the Black Friday spending test. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

as a follow up to last show's 'Review of US Economy 2025', this week the show makes predictions where it's headed in 2026. Topics include US GDP for next year, jobs & unemployment, Inflation (CPI & PCE), Fed interest rates (short & long term), continued devaluation of the US dollar and its consequences, direction of financial asset bubbles (gold, silver, crypto, stocks), AI investment & real business spending, government spending (defense vs social programs), budget deficits and national debt, US trade deficit. Impact of global trends (BRICS, sanctions, dollar demand, demand for US Treasuries by China, BRICS, etc. also discussed).

Carol Roth, a “recovering” investment banker, financial television commentator, entrepreneur, and two-time New York Times best-selling author, joins Julia La Roche again for episode 321. Carol delivers a sobering assessment of America's broken fiscal foundation with debt-to-GDP over 120%, explaining why the K-shaped economy is creating a non-merit-based divide driven by policy and the administrative class wealth transfer. She discusses the wealth paradox - despite abundance, Americans are more stressed than ever due to housing, education, and healthcare costs - and predicts inflation will be the release valve for our debt crisis. Roth shares her bullish thesis on gold and precious metals as central banks shift away from US Treasuries, explains why the Fed's tools are now irrelevant in this fiscal dominance era, and reveals her predictions for 2026 including decoupling from European allies, Fed chaos, and wild out-of-the-box policies. This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:  You Will Own Nothing: https://www.carolroth.com/nothing/ Follow Carol Roth on X: https://x.com/caroljsrothTimestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome Carol Roth00:57 Big picture macro view: Broken fiscal foundation04:07 K-shaped economy debate and wealth paradox11:46 Administrative class wealth transfer problem18:33 Is Trump going to fix the broken fiscal foundation?24:37 Do rate cuts help everyday Americans?30:51 Gold as hedge and insurance policy37:50 "You Will Own Nothing" - what's changed since 202345:33 Predictions for 202648:58 Wrap up and where to find Carol

Wall Street fell as technology stocks retreated, with the Oracle–Blue Owl decoupling unsettling markets ahead of a looming wave of debt issuance. US Treasuries also slipped after dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. In commodities, silver surged to a record high above US$66 an ounce, while lithium prices jumped in China on plans to revoke mining licences. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to fall for a fourth straight session amid renewed rate-hike concerns. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Dow Jones jumped 600 points to a record high as an Oracle-led slide in AI names triggered a broader rotation out of the trade. Elsewhere, Walt Disney announced a $1 billion investment in OpenAI while fertiliser stocks climbed as Ukraine struck Russian fertiliser plants. At the same time, US Treasuries fell for a second straight session following the Fed’s statement and jobless claims posted their biggest rise since March 2020. In commodities, silver hit an all-time high, and copper climbed to a fresh record after the Fed’s rate cut. Back home, Aussie shares are expected to jump on China stimulus hopes. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's podcast:1) The US president’s son-in-law. One of the largest alternative-asset managers. The CEO’s father who fleetingly commanded a fortune exceeding Elon Musk’s. Paramount Skydance Corp.’s hostile takeover bid Monday for Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. brought together an array of banks, billionaires and sovereign-wealth funds, all with the aim of torpedoing Netflix Inc.’s deal last week.2) President Donald Trump granted Nvidia Corp. permission to ship its H200 artificial intelligence chip to China in exchange for a 25% surcharge, a move that lets the world’s most valuable company potentially regain billions of dollars in lost business from a key global market.3) Stocks wavered and US bond yields softened from a two-month high as traders held off on making big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest-rate decision of 2025. S&P 500 futures were little changed after the US benchmark halted a four-day rally. A dayslong slump in US Treasuries has curbed risk appetite as traders grow cautious about the pace of rate cuts beyond Wednesday’s policy meeting.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Data showed low US jobless claims contrasting with continued corporate layoffs, leaving rate cut expectations for next week intact. This helped US small caps to outperform. Onshore China shares are rising following strong demand for the second-largest IPO this year. Global central banks now hold more gold than US Treasuries for the first time in 30 years. Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory Geneva, talks about volatile metals this week and what FX trading in a narrow range means for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:24) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:33) - FX and metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:31) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Wall Street advanced on Wednesday as weak ADP jobs data bolstered rate-cut hopes, while US Treasuries gained on signs of labour-market softness. The technology sector ended broadly lower, with Microsoft slipping on reports of weaker demand for some AI tools, though Microchip bucked the trend with a strong jump after an upbeat earnings forecast. In commodities, oil prices climbed as Moscow peace talks failed to gain traction, while copper and silver hit fresh record highs. Back home, Aussie shares are set to edge higher on Thursday ahead of key household spending data. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Wall Street slipped overnight as rising bond yields and weakness in crypto-exposed stocks weighed on sentiment. US Treasuries also declined, with fresh corporate debt issuance adding pressure after Japan’s bond sell-off last week. Still, Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales helped lift major US retailers. Elsewhere, European markets kicked off December on the back foot, dragged lower by a slide in Airbus. In commodities, oil rose more than a dollar a barrel after OPEC’s latest move, while silver hit a record high as growing rate-cut expectations pressured the US dollar. Back home, Aussie shares are set to open higher, with Collins Foods earnings in focus. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China sold a record amount of Treasuries last quarter, which is actually more confirmation of the monetary tightening story over the summer which is now spilling out into the mainstream in the form of elevated repo rates, SOFR, and repo borrowing from the Fed. At the same time and for very much related reasons, private foreign counterparties were buying huge amounts of, yes, US Treasuries. There was no rejection at all, quite the contrary all of it pointing to growing expectations for the fallout from flat Beveridge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's EARLY BLACK FRIDAY SALEGet our DDA+ subscription including the DDA, a membership, and the Daily Briefing for one ultra-low price. Not only that, we'll also include the Substack One Big Weekly Theme subscription to. Huge value and huge savings. https://https://www.eurodollar.university/black-friday-2025---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

On today's podcast:1) Nvidia Corp. delivered a surprisingly strong revenue forecast and pushed back on the idea that the AI industry is in a bubble, easing concerns that had spread across the tech sector. The world’s most valuable company expects sales of about $65 billion in the January quarter — roughly $3 billion more than analysts predicted. Nvidia also said that a half-trillion-dollar revenue bonanza due in coming quarters may be even bigger than anticipated. The outlook signals that demand remains robust for Nvidia’s artificial intelligence accelerators, the pricey and powerful chips used to develop AI models. Nvidia had faced growing fears in recent weeks that the runaway spending on such equipment wasn’t sustainable. Nvidia results have become a barometer for the health of the AI industry, and the news lifted a variety of related stocks.2) Bond investors are zeroing in on Thursday’s US labor market report, which is expected to either kill or rekindle waning expectations for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next month. The September payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. New York time after a delay caused by the government shutdown, will be the only official major jobs data published before Fed policymakers meet for the final time this year. A report showing a resilient employment situation could undercut the case for more rate cuts and dash hopes of a further rally in the $30 trillion US Treasuries market. A soft reading, on the other hand, could revive bets on a third consecutive quarter-point cut at the Dec. 10 meeting and boost a market that’s already headed for its best year since 2020. Odds of a December cut assigned by the market have steadily slipped in recent weeks as some policymakers pushed back against further easing while inflation continues to run above the Fed’s 2% target.3) President Trump has signed legislation to compel the Department of Justice to release files on the late, disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. Trump said in a social media post that he signed the legislation Wednesday, approving a measure he had spent months trying to block in a fight that inflamed tensions in his own party and threatened to undermine his agenda. The president’s signature marked a stunning about-face for Trump, who had assailed the effort to require the release of the government’s files on Epstein — a convicted sex offender, who was facing federal charges of trafficking underage girls when he died in jail in 2019. It followed a lopsided 427 to 1 vote in the House — where a lone Republican lawmaker provided the only no vote — and the Senate agreeing unanimously to send the measure to the president’s desk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today, we note that the market's stabilization attempt from Friday seems to have failed as risk-off has gone global in equities, perhaps led by the meltdown in Bitcoin. Amidst the deepening unease, it's remarkable that bond markets, with the notable exception of Japan, remain calm, while transmission into FX is minimal. But the tension is building, with a key event risk on Friday for Japan possibly set to unleash volatility. This and much more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

On today's podcast:1) Global markets extended a broad selloff, with US stock futures signaling a fourth day of losses and Bitcoin briefly slipping below $90,000 as traders pulled away from speculative assets. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% after the benchmark closed below its 50-day moving average in the previous session, a sign of scope for further losses. Bitcoin slid more than 1%. European stocks declined for a fourth day. Stock gauges across Asia were in the red, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 posting its worst day since April. Bonds were the biggest beneficiaries as investors sought havens, with the yield on 10-year US Treasuries dropping four basis points to 4.10%. The dollar held steady as gold fell closer to $4,000 an ounce. The cross-asset moves underscored continued unease over interest rates and tech earnings, with Nvidia Corp.’s report on Wednesday poised to test investor nerves over lofty valuations in the artificial-intelligence sector. Focus will then turn to the delayed September jobs report due Thursday, a key gauge for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.2) Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller repeated his view that the central bank should again lower interest rates when policymakers meet in December, citing a weak labor market and monetary policy that is hurting low- and middle-income consumers. In a speech titled ‘The Case for Continuing Rate Cuts’ delivered in London, Waller said another rate cut would represent good “risk management” by the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee. He said he isn’t concerned about inflation accelerating or inflation expectations rising significantly given clear signs of softening demand for workers.3) Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will likely be greeted with great fanfare by President Trump during his visit to the White House on Tuesday. The crown prince hopes to secure an executive order from Trump to bolster Saudi Arabia’s security and potentially pave the way for a stronger defense treaty. The two are also expected to reach an agreement that would allow the kingdom to purchase F-35 stealth planes, despite Israel wanting to keep a monopoly on access. Discussions on the future of Gaza and the thorny issue of relations with Israel are on the agenda as well. There also remains tension over access to AI chips and nuclear technology.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Andreas Steno Larsen, founder and CEO of Steno Research, and Mikkel Rosenvold, partner and head of geopolitics for Steno Research, are back to break down the latest macro news and market drivers after a brutal week for risk assets.

My guest this week is Larry Kriesmer from Measured Risk Portfolios, where he oversees the SynthEquity® strategy to manage over $500 million focusing on using options and US Treasuries to minimize equity risks while pursuing S&P 500-level returns.Blog post available at: https://www.sharesforbeginners.com/blog/larry-kriesmer-synthequityWatch on YouTube right here.

On today's show we are looking at some of the changes happening in the global monetary system that I believe  are being largely misunderstood. The Genius Act is enabling the US the extend its reach internationally which could have the effect of strengthening the US position as the world reserve currency. Think about the demand for dollars or any stable currency if you live in a country that has high inflation. The people in Turkey or Argentina or Venezuela along with numerous other countries are experiencing very high inflation. Inflation in Turkey is close to 50% year over year. Argentina is 98% year over year, and Venezuela is a whopping 400% year over year. The average person on the street aims to spend their pay check fully because they know that whatever they purchase will be more expensive next week. If they can't realistically spend all their cash, they will find a way to exchange their local currency for US dollars or Euros. But mostly US dollars. The problem with is that the folks can't open a USD denominated bank account with their local bank. They end up going to expensive currency exchange businesses and pay a sizeable premium to convert their Turkish Lira into USD. If you walk the streets of Istanbul, these currency exchange businesses are virtually on every street corner.  This year the US Genius Act was passed into law. Most people don't know what the Genius Act is. Some know that it is something about crypto. But they're not out there buying their groceries with bitcoin or Etherium. So who cares. What does this have to do with me? The thing to remember is that Stable coins are programmable. That means there is a history of all transactions on the blockchain and the US government can maintain both oversight and control over the transactions. Today, the vast majority of Stable coins are denominated in USD. That means the adoption of stable coins for commerce outside the US will actually extend the reach and entrenchment of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency. The fact that these coins are not issued by the US government will create the perception that these coins have the best of both worlds. They are US dollar denominated. They are backed by either US dollars or by US Treasuries. But they are not a CBDC. The idea is that these coins are all about extending the reach of the US dollar. There's currently 180 FIAT currencies in the world. There is no market for exchanging Guarani from Paraguay into Japanese Yen. All of this happens today through the US dollar. Stable coins denominated in US dollars are the key to further entrenching the dollar as the world's reserve currency. I believe these will have a higher international adoption than coins which are under the direct control of the Chinese Communist Party. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Why the Next Financial Crisis Is Already Here | Michael Howell | Two Blokes Trading Ep. 13In this episode of Two Blokes Trading, we speak with Michael Howell, founder of CrossBorder Capital and author of the “Capital Wars” Substack, to unpack the real driver behind today's market turmoil: a growing global liquidity crisis. Michael explains why liquidity, not just interest rates, is the engine powering asset prices and why the global economy is now deep into a debt refinancing cycle that could trigger major funding stress.From repo market volatility and Fed balance sheet tightening to rising systemic risk in sovereign debt markets, Michael shares the signals smart traders need to watch and how to trade ahead of the curve. We also explore why gold, Bitcoin, and other inflation hedges are flashing warning signs and what happens when central banks are forced to restart quantitative easing.This is not another macro overview. It is a deep, data-driven discussion on the structural cracks in global liquidity. Whether you are a retail trader or managing larger portfolios, this episode will change how you read the markets.What You'll Learn in This Episode:Michael Howell explains why global liquidity, not interest rates, is the real driver of financial market trends and why the next crisis may already be unfolding. You will learn how more than 80 percent of capital markets activity is now focused on debt refinancing rather than investment and why this shift increases systemic risk.We explore the mounting pressure in repo markets, the importance of monitoring SOFR spreads, and how reduced liquidity from the Federal Reserve could lead to disruptions in funding markets. Michael also breaks down the risks posed by trade fails, the structural liquidity gap in US bank reserves, and why hedge funds are playing a critical role as marginal buyers of US Treasuries.The episode also examines long-term forecasts for gold and Bitcoin as barometers of monetary risk, and what traders can learn from shifts in central bank behavior. You will come away with a stronger understanding of liquidity cycles, how they differ from traditional business cycles, and how to position yourself before major market turns.Jonathan Farrelly – HostJonathan started his trading journey over 15 years ago, learning from some of the best institutional traders in the world. Over the last 9 years, Jonathan has taught thousands of retail traders how to successfully navigate the financial markets. Jonathan has evolved Two Blokes Trading with new technologies to offer traders a fully immersive experience. His ethos is built on transparency with the goal of helping new and experienced traders reach their financial goals.About Michael Howell:Michael Howell is the founder and CEO of CrossBorder Capital, a London-based research and investment firm specialising in capital flows and global liquidity analysis. With more than 30 years of experience in financial markets, Michael developed a data-driven liquidity research methodology during his time at Salomon Brothers and Baring Securities.He launched CrossBorder Capital in 1996 and has since advised institutional clients, hedge funds, and policymakers around the world. He also authors the Capital Wars Substack, which offers clear, accessible insights on liquidity, macroeconomics, and capital trends. Michael is a regular speaker at financial conferences and is regarded as one of the leading experts on how liquidity drives risk and opportunity in global markets.Micheals Website: https://www.crossbordercapital.comThis episode is sponsored by our partnered broker, Forex.com.Set up your account or learn more here:

This year's uncertainty is producing a somewhat surprising group of winning and losing asset classes. And there are still two months to go in 2025. Many investors are rerouting their investments into different asset classes because of geopolitical risks like the US trade war, elevated inflation, and high interest rates. A more recent development is the budget battle in Washington, D.C. While the macro environment is pressure-testing portfolios, it's also serving as a reminder about the benefits of diversification. So, which asset classes are leading and lagging as 2025 prepares to wrap up? And how's the classic 60/40 portfolio holding up? Morningstar portfolio strategist Amy Arnott has examined the data.The hunt for cockroaches may produce opportunities for patient investors. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon reacted to First Brands' and Tricolor's bankruptcies saying, “When you see one cockroach there are probably more.” Dan Kemp, chief investment research officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, says people are looking for more cockroaches to emerge due to weak lending standards via private credit. Despite the bankruptcies primarily involving the US markets, European banks took the hit. Kemp says there are bargains and more could surface if there are additional bankruptcies.Can the Gold Rush Continue? Warning Signs for InvestorsOn this episode: Market volatility has recently increased. Can you talk about what's fueling it? We're going to talk about asset classes that are winning and losing so far this year. Let's start with the leaders. Gold hit record highs this year, but a sharp selloff this week has stopped the rally. Who's been buying gold?Cryptocurrencies have been on a tear despite a recent big selloff due to the US trade war. The volatile sector has rebounded. What's driving its performance?We've talked on the podcast in the spring about the outperformance of international stocks. Is the streak still going, and do overseas opportunities still exist? We're now focusing on the three losing asset classes. The real estate sector is having a tough year. Can you give us the details? Why are US small-cap stocks and some bond segments lagging? How is the government shutdown affecting the demand for US Treasuries? Could this affect their safe-haven status?The US dollar isn't having a great year either. Could the world's reserve currency weaken even more? How has the popular 60/40 portfolio—made up of 60% stocks and 40% bonds—performed? What about other popular portfolios, such as the three-fund portfolio or the more diversified portfolio your team looked at in the Diversification Landscape? What's the takeaway for investors as they brace for more market volatility?The stock market tumbled earlier this month, and cryptocurrencies like bitcoin and Ethereum fell with it. There's the argument that crypto can serve as an effective diversifier for stocks. What's your take, and what has filled the safe haven role this year?In this week's Markets Brief, you wrote about weaknesses in the financial services sector and a so-called cockroach hunt. Can you explain what's going on, and how patient investors can find opportunities?What do you plan to highlight in next week's Markets Brief? What to watch from Morningstar. The Stock Market Is Ultra-Concentrated. Here's How to Manage the Risks.New Crypto ETFs Are Coming. Here's How Investors Can PrepareHow Inflation, AI, and Budget Battles Will Shape the Stock Market in Q4 Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/ Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Marty sits down with Vince Lanci to discuss China's strategic gold accumulation through Shanghai warrants, the global dedollarization movement, how gold is being positioned as high-quality liquid collateral to compete with US Treasuries, Bitcoin price suppression through ETF derivatives, and the parallels between gold and Bitcoin market manipulation. Vince on Twitter: https://x.com/Sorenthek Vince's Substack: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bit.ly/TFTCBitkey20 Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Obscura https://obscura.net/ SLNT https://slnt.com/tftc CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

The NIA boys discuss Meta Vibes (AI Videos), TikTok's $14B Sale, EA's $55B Takeover & Gold Flips US TreasuriesTimestamps(00:00:00) - Intro(00:04:29) - Meta Vibes (AI Videos)(00:18:44) - TikTok's $14B Sale(00:30:02) - EA's $55B Takeover (00:41:38) - Gold Flips US TreasuriesWhat Is Not Investment Advice?Every week, Jack Butcher, Bilal Zaidi & Trung Phan discuss what they're finding on the edges of the internet + the latest in business, technology and memes.Subscribe + listen on your fav podcast app:Apple: https://pod.link/notadvicepod.appleSpotify: https://pod.link/notadvicepod.spotifyOthers: https://pod.link/notadvicepodListen into our group chat on Telegram:https://t.me/notinvestmentadviceLet us know what you think on Twitter:http://twitter.com/bzaidihttp://twitter.com/trungtphanhttp://twitter.com/jackbutcherhttp://twitter.com/niapodcast Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In Episode 441 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about the profound transformations underway in the global economy driven by America's transition away from being the world's primary insurance provider for international security to its most enterprising racketeer. In a recently published Foreign Affairs essay titled “The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World?” Adam compares America's role in the post-World War II era to that of an insurance provider, underwriting global security by protecting international shipping lanes, providing deep and liquid capital markets, and enforcing international laws and standards that have formed the bedrock of the last 80 years of economic growth and prosperity. Kofinas and Posen spend the first hour of this episode digging into Adam's insurance framework and why he believes the United States was the largest beneficiary of the system it created. They discuss some of the recent policy changes out of Washington and why they are transforming America's sphere of influence into something that looks more like a protection racket than a market for affordable insurance. Adam Posen draws implications for the continued role of US Treasuries as a global safe asset and whether a reduction of foreign capital flows into dollars will ultimately prove stimulative for the resurrection of industrial ecosystems that the administration has identified as vital to American national security and the long-term prosperity of the United States. The two also consider the degree to which the increased premiums that Washington is now charging its allies can be justified by rising risks in the international security environment and by the unpopularity among the MAGA base for foreign U.S. involvement. The second hour of their conversation turns to questions of execution—specifically, what is required for the successful implementation of a U.S. industrial policy. This includes a discussion about apprenticeships, skilled immigration, government-supported R&D, federal funding for university science and technology programs, and more integration and collaboration with allied economies. Posen and Kofinas also discuss why the use of tariffs, subsidies, and export controls—including the CHIPS and Science Act—implemented during both Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's administrations have underdelivered. They also examine why the current administration's trade policies have been oddly more accommodative toward China than toward America's closest allies and why this will ultimately prove to be a losing strategy in the long-term. Lastly, Demetri asks Adam for his view on what the recent battles between the Fed and the White House mean for the future of Fed independence and if Washington is laying the groundwork for a long-term rise in inflation expectations as it seeks to monetize its debt and deficits through an increasingly compliant and captured central bank. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 09/16/2025