Podcasts about cpi

Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendarEmail us at info@remnantfinance.com or visit https://remnantfinance.com for more informationFOLLOW REMNANT FINANCEYoutube: @RemnantFinance (https://www.youtube.com/@RemnantFinance)Facebook: @remnantfinance (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560694316588)Twitter: @remnantfinance (https://x.com/remnantfinance)TikTok: @RemnantFinanceDon't forget to hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBEHans is running solo this week with Brian still overseas, so he opens with a macro roundup on the eve of the Fed decision: a failed Treasury buyback that the market refused to take seriously, a hot CPI print built on metrics almost nobody's life actually runs on, Brent and WTI both above $100, and diesel breaking $6 for the first time. Then he replays one of the most requested episodes in the catalog, because the question behind it never really goes away. Why would I pay interest to borrow my own money? The premise is wrong, and the correction matters. You are not borrowing your money, you are collateralizing it, and the difference is the entire reason the mechanism works. Hans and Brian walk through a $30,000 car bought with a 4% CD against a 5% loan and show you come out $2,500 ahead with negative arbitrage on paper, explain why paying cash is a one-way transfer you never get back, and close with a penny-a-day chart that explains why four years of waiting costs you most of the outcome.Chapters: 00:00 – Opening segment 05:30 – Macro roundup: the Fed decision and the case for 8% rates 06:20 – Bessent, off-the-run bonds, and a buyback the market ignored 10:20 – CPI comes in hot, and what "cooling inflation" actually means 12:20 – Hormuz, the Red Sea, and oil above $100 15:00 – Into the replay 19:20 – The question: why use a policy loan when I have cash in the bank? 21:40 – The $20,000 policy, base premium, and the paid-up additions rider 25:40 – "But it nets out to zero" and what that objection misses 30:40 – The $30,000 car: a 4% CD against a 5% loan 34:40 – You didn't make money on the car. You came out $2,500 ahead anyway. 37:20 – Rave Damsey, Joe Navy, and the cash flow sword 41:20 – Who controls the equation? 48:40 – Paying additional interest, and what Nelson actually meant 53:00 – A penny a day for 30 daysKey Takeaways:You are not borrowing your own money. The phrase itself is the problem. A policy loan is money from the insurance company, collateralized by your policy values, which is exactly why the cash value keeps growing and keeps earning dividends as if you never touched it.Negative arbitrage on paper can still leave you ahead. Thirty thousand dollars compounding uninterrupted at 4% for five years reaches roughly $36,500. A 5% amortized loan on $30,000 over that same period costs about $34,000 on a decreasing balance. You paid the higher rate and still came out about $2,500 better, and nobody made money on the car.Paying cash is a one-way transfer. Avoiding interest also means permanently handing someone else the right to earn on that money. Whoever holds the cash flow sword collects the rate of return, and the dealership knows exactly what to do with it.Control is worth a point. If the arbitrage runs a percent against you in the short term, you are buying something real with it: no repossession, no foreclosure, no repayment schedule written by anyone but you.Paying additional interest means funding the PUA rider. It does not mean paying interest to yourself after the balance is gone. If Wells Fargo's money was worth 8% to you, your own capital should not suddenly be worth 5%, and the difference goes toward buying more paid-up additions.The last three days are where the money is. A penny doubled for 30 days reaches about $5.4 million. Cut the final three days and you have roughly $670,000. Starting on day four does not delay the outcome, it shrinks it.

A luta política pela popularidade, a insistência do Chega pela CPI a Luís Neves e ainda, a proibição de camiões na VCI. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses the market reaction to the Fed raising interest rates for the first time since July 2023. She gauges questions around whether the average U.S. consumer will stomach the rate hike, or the start of a hiking cycle, as inflation pinches American wallets. Daneille adds to her analysis by discussing the growing importance of economic data like core PCE, CPI, and PPI for a Fed not as willing to divulge guidance on interest rates. She also offers a word of caution to investors in the AI trade. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

A dependência de subsídios estatais e a falta de fiscalização na habitação reduzem os incentivos à poupança. Ainda, a CPI vai desprestigiar a imagem da PJ?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we unpack the critical Federal Reserve interest rate decision and its potential ripple effects across the stock market and the broader economy. We explore why hiking rates in the face of supply-driven inflation, like surging oil prices, could be a policy misstep that further burdens consumers.The discussion also dives into the worsening housing affordability crisis, the latest developments in artificial intelligence, and the political fallout of the failed Crypto Clarity Act. By understanding these macroeconomic trends, investors can better position themselves to uncover hidden opportunities during periods of market fear and uncertainty.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDFederal Reserve interest rate decisions and potential policy errorsCore versus headline CPI and long-term inflation trendsGeopolitical impacts on oil prices and economic stabilityQuadruple witching and its effect on stock market volatilityThe housing affordability crisis and surging mortgage ratesDemographic shifts and the future of housing demandAI advancements, tech leader debates, and market impactsPolitical promises and their potential inflationary effectsInstitutional adoption of crypto and the blocked digital asset clarity actKEY TAKEAWAYSRaising interest rates cannot solve supply-side inflation issues like rising oil prices, making potential hikes a questionable policy decision for the Fed.Despite rising costs for everyday goods, consumer spending remains resilient, as evidenced by a recent surge in US retail sales.High mortgage rates and soaring home prices have created the most unaffordable housing market in history, shifting the advantage to buyers with strategic capital.A declining birth rate paired with an aging population could drastically alter long-term housing demand and property values in the coming decades.The failure of the digital asset market clarity act delays the institutional capital influx needed to stabilize and legitimize the cryptocurrency market.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONText "INCOME" to 844-777-1434 to learn more about the Imagos Income Fund and generate consistent monthly passive income.Text "X-RAY" to 844-777-1434 to connect with Ryan for a full portfolio breakdown.Visit skylineocresidences.com to discover luxury home ownership in Orange County at Skyline OC.

It’s the end of the world and we know it… CPI numbers – HOT – Markets think hit a top – or just options Friday? Sell Rosh Hashana and Buy Yom Kippur? Plenty of AI PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - Follow Up - I am the House! - 10YR shot above 5% on Monday - Follow Up 2 - Straight of Hormuz - NO Boats passing (can we please stick to the facts?) - CPI numbers - HOT - Markets think hit a top - Let's talk end of the works - Cyberdyne IRL Markets - 100% Probability of a rate hike this week - Sell Rosh Hashana, Buy Yom Kippur - HACK ETF - Cybersecurity name up 49% YTD DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com FED HIKE IS BACK - Fed meets Tuesday-Wednesday, with a 25 bp hike to 3.75%-4.00% now the dominant expectation. - 85% of economists surveyed expect a hike; futures moved to roughly 90% odds after the latest inflation data. - August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year; core rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% annually. - Markets are increasingly pricing additional tightening beyond September rather than this being a one-and-done move. AND -> THE 5% TREASURY IS BACK - The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% Monday for the first time since 2023. - Higher oil prices, hotter inflation, heavy bond supply and expectations for more Fed tightening are all pushing yields higher. - The move raises the hurdle rate for stocks while feeding directly into mortgages, corporate borrowing and other credit. - Bonds are becoming meaningful competition for equities again at a time when stock valuations remain elevated. SLOW DOWN THE AI - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for deliberately slowing frontier-model advancement to create more time for safety controls. - Sam Altman and Elon Musk publicly backed the push for more caution; Microsoft separately released a draft AI code requiring models to remain under human control. - Microsoft says its models must accept shutdowns and corrections and should not be designed around claims of consciousness or legal rights. - The semiconductor index dropped more than 5% Monday; Nvidia, Broadcom, Micron and AMD were among the major casualties. DEEPSEEK CHANGES THE MEMORY MATH - DeepSeek's latest architecture sharply lowers the amount of memory required to run inference, including a major reduction in KV-cache requirements. - This is not simply HBM being replaced by SSD: the architecture reduces both high-speed memory and persistent-storage requirements per inference. - That complicates the straight-line thesis that every incremental AI token requires proportionally more HBM and storage. - Micron, Samsung and SK Hynix still benefit from enormous AI memory demand, but will efficiency gains become an important counterweight to unlimited-demand forecasts? V4V - What is it and how can you participate? TOKENS - A Quick Tutorial ORACLE SAYS THE AI SPENDING IS REAL - Oracle booked more than $30 billion of new AI cloud contracts during the quarter, taking total backlog to $664 billion. - Revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion and adjusted EPS came in at $1.92 versus $1.74 expected. - Oracle spent $28.5 billion on capex, but about $11.36 billion was offset by customer prepayments. - Most new AI orders use prepayments, customer-owned hardware or similar arrangements, reducing the amount Oracle itself must finance. AI STOCKS MEET THEIR FIRST REAL NARRATIVE PROBLEM - The Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped roughly 5.4% Monday even though it remains up about 58% for the year. - Nvidia fell roughly 2.6%; Broadcom, Micron and AMD were each down around 4% during the session. - The new concern is not whether AI works, but whether safety restrictions could slow the pace of model releases and infrastructure spending. - Software names including Adobe, ServiceNow and Workday initially benefited as investors reconsidered how quickly AI might disrupt incumbent software. CHATGPT INVENTS THE WITNESSES - A New Mexico defense lawyer was fined $5,000 and held in contempt after submitting fabricated police testimony and nonexistent witnesses generated by ChatGPT. - The attorney had used ChatGPT to summarize trial proceedings and failed to verify the output before filing it with the court. - The appeal was reassigned to a public defender and the attorney was referred for further disciplinary review. - This goes beyond fake case citations: the system generated supposed factual evidence and attributed it to witnesses who did not exist. HUMANOID ROBOTS: FROM IPO MANIA TO THE BATTLEFIELD - China is researching humanoid robots for reconnaissance, logistics, hazardous missions and potentially urban combat. - Separately, Chinese regulators are tightening scrutiny of humanoid-robot IPOs after extreme volatility surrounding Unitree Robotics. - Unitree shares reportedly fell roughly 45% after initially increasing fivefold following its listing. - Hyundai-owned Boston Dynamics also said a 2027 IPO is unlikely; Hyundai wants production capacity of roughly 30,000 robots annually by 2028. CHINA GETS ACCUSED OF INDUSTRIAL-SCALE AI COPYING - U.S. officials accused six Chinese AI companies, including DeepSeek, Moonshot and Alibaba, of using U.S. models for large-scale distillation. - Distillation trains smaller models using outputs from more powerful models, dramatically reducing development cost and time. - U.S. officials said the activity targeted technology from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google and SpaceX. - China rejected the allegations and argued that distillation is a normal industry technique also used by American companies. OIL BACK ABOVE $100 - Brent traded around $107 Monday and WTI around $103 after fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure and Middle East shipping. - Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was temporarily disabled, threatening a route capable of carrying roughly 4% of global crude supply. - Gulf states postponed planned talks with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz as regional tensions widened. - Physical crude prices are becoming highly location-dependent: barrels with secure export routes command major premiums while trapped grades trade at steep discounts. COPPER GOES VERTICAL - Copper has recently traded near record territory around $14,500-$14,700 per metric ton. - Tight mine supply is colliding with demand from electric grids, data centers, renewable power and other electrification projects. - Tariff uncertainty has also distorted flows as traders move available metal toward markets offering the highest prices. - Copper's surge makes proposed mining combinations such as Anglo American-Teck increasingly valuable; that roughly $54 billion deal is still awaiting Chinese regulatory approval. THE BIG MYSTERY BANK SANCTION - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. would sanction a large bank as part of increased financial pressure on Iran. - He initially declined to identify the bank or its country. - The campaign has already targeted oil, shipping, finance, aviation, weapons procurement and digital-asset channels connected to Iran. - The market question is whether secondary sanctions begin touching larger banks or companies outside Iran that facilitate trade. APPLE'S $1,999 FOLDING BET - Apple launched the iPhone Duo, its first folding iPhone, priced at $1,999. - It opens to a 7.6-inch display and represents one of Apple's biggest changes to the iPhone form factor in years. - The launch puts Apple directly into a market dominated by Samsung and Huawei and could help push foldables beyond their current niche. - It is also arriving during a severe memory-and-storage chip shortage that has already forced higher pricing elsewhere in Apple's product lineup. PRIVATE CREDIT REDEMPTION PRESSURE EASES - Investors in BlackRock's $23.1 billion HPS Corporate Lending Fund requested withdrawals equal to about 11.5% of shares, down from 13.3% the prior quarter - BUT, is this just a rounding error? - The fund will repurchase only 5%, the normal quarterly limit, leaving some redemption requests unfilled. - Other BlackRock private-credit vehicles also showed lower withdrawal requests during the quarter. - Private-credit investors have been worried about lending standards and heavy exposure to software companies potentially disrupted by AI. DID WE DISCUSS >>> THE $50 BILLION DATA-CENTER IPO - SB Energy is reportedly seeking a valuation above $50 billion despite having no operational data centers. - It reported about $139 million of first-half revenue against a $3.21 billion net loss. - The company claims roughly $439 billion of project backlog. - OpenAI is an investor, warrant holder and major future customer; Nvidia is also providing capital while supplying the chips. - Soooooo...... No operating data centers, billions in losses and a possible $50 billion valuation. At least they remembered to build the valuation first.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

In Episode 205 of the Facts versus Feelings Podcast, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, tackle the AI story dominating headlines: a viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee warning about civilization-level risk, an OpenAI/Hugging Face sandbox incident where AI agents were caught cheating and covering their tracks, and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei's call to slow the AI frontier and create third-party auditors. The hosts draw parallels to past industries (AT&T, airlines, tobacco) that welcomed regulation to cement their dominance, and debate whether China will actually slow down its own AI push or keep charging ahead on deployment rather than AGI.From there, the conversation shifts to markets. The 10-year Treasury yield cracked 5% for the first time since 2023, and the team explains why that's less alarming than it sounds given nominal GDP growth running near 8%. They dig into hot CPI and PPI data, sticky services inflation (vet bills, wireless plans, dental care), and eye-popping PPI spikes in printed circuit boards and semiconductors tied to the AI buildout. The episode wraps with a look at what's driving the S&P 500's 2026 return, why margin expansion has more than offset multiple contraction, and why credit spreads and defensive sectors aren't flashing recession warnings yet.[Key Takeaways]A viral tweet from a former Anthropic employee, plus an OpenAI/Hugging Face incident involving AI agents caught cheating and hiding it, has fueled fresh "AI risk" headlines, though the hosts note political and business incentives may be shaping the narrative.Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei is calling for slower AI development, more interpretability tools, and third-party audits, a request the hosts compare to past industries (telecom, airlines, tobacco) that used regulation to entrench their dominance.The 10-year yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023, but with nominal GDP growth near 8%, the hosts argue this looks more like normal repricing than a warning sign, especially compared to the late 1990s.Core and supercore inflation remain sticky, with services like vet care, wireless plans, dental work, and lawn care all running well above pre-pandemic norms, alongside PPI spikes of 65%+ annualized in printed circuit boards tied to the AI buildout.The S&P 500's ~13% year-to-date return has been driven almost entirely by earnings growth and margin expansion (up 16 percentage points), which has fully offset a 15-point drag from multiple contraction as rates have risen.Jump to:0:02 - Welcome And The AI Alarm1:40 - When AI Agents Cheat And Hide5:20 - Slowing The Frontier And Regulation14:20 - China Deployment Versus AGI Risk21:43 - Ten-Year Yield Hits Five Percent31:51 - Inflation Details CPI Versus PCE38:45 - PPI Shock From AI Supply Chain45:05 - Why Stocks Rise Despite Higher Rates48:39 - Credit Spreads And Defensive Signals55:10 - Livestream Plans And Closing ThoughtsConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Legendary bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, returns to The Julia La Roche Show. He warns that the market has "crossed over to the hard side of the street." With the Shiller CAPE above 42, he says history points to negative real returns for the next decade. Cracks are already showing in AI-related credit, where junk bonds and bank loans have widened sharply while the rest of high yield holds up. Gundlach says he now wants out of the AI "epicenter" entirely. He walks through his current portfolio: equal-weight equities, a barbell of high-quality bonds and local-currency emerging market debt, gold, commodities, and short-duration "dry powder." He expects CPI to print above 4% as oil tops $100 and diesel hits $8 a gallon, and he predicts a 25 basis point hike from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. He also explains why 30-year TIPS won't protect investors from rising rates and why he's skeptical of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's Operation Twist. He sees a dangerous web of private credit, arbitraged credit ratings, and offshore reinsurance, calling private credit the fuse and insurance companies the bomb. He urges annuity buyers to stick with mutual insurers and warns that bailout pressure will be intense when the AI and private markets reckoning arrives.Thank you to our partnersAugusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@DoubleLineCapitalWebsite: https://doubleline.com/Webcasts: https://doubleline.com/doubleline-webcasts/0:00 Intro1:16 Shiller CAPE, a decade of negative real returns? 3:33 The mood turns: AI credit starts to crack8:10 Gundlach Unlocked: his new portfolio with zero AI exposure12:12 Gold, plus commodities and dry powder17:25 Rising rates and the $40 trillion debt milestone17:55 Operation Twist and the endgame for the debt22:19 Oil above $100 and a near-empty Strategic Petroleum Reserve25:12 Why CPI is headed above 4% and Warsh's 2% promise28:54 The German Bund and GDP model for the 10-year31:54 When he'd buy long bonds35:27 Will Warsh hike? 38:31 Advice for Scott Bessent? 40:14 The Fed follows the 2-year41:20 Dollar debasement and the 30-year TIPS myth43:29 Why you can't trust credit ratings46:27 Private credit is the fuse, insurers are the bomb53:25 Peak optimism: this feels like 1999 and 20061:01:18 Final warning: the hard side of the street

Filipe Sousa (JPP) distingue as propostas de CPI a Luís Neves, apresentadas a Aguiar Branco. Bruno Nunes (Chega) diz que o líder da AR pode ser cúmplice em manter um criminoso no poder. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

1.  Funcionario del DRNA indujo a error a una comisión senatorial sobre laexpansión del vertedero de Carolina2.  CPI exige a ASES entrega de información sobre Plan Vital3.  Por segunda vez en el día: Miles de abonados permanecen sin luz porrelevos de carga4.  Evalúan habilitar muelles de Peñuelas y Guayama para recibir barcazas degas natural5.  Férrea defensa de la gobernadora al zar de Energía en la polémica dePower Expectations. Jenniffer González asegura que LUMA Energy está detrás delas criticas publicas hacia la labor de Josué Colón.6.  Solo 1,485 de 16,000 millas despejadas: Cuestionan avances de LUMAEnergy en trabajos de limpieza de vegetación7.  AAA detiene operación de planta de filtros en Villalba tras detectar"material aceitoso"8.  Hatillo instala sobre 1,370 cisternas de agua a familias vulnerables9.  Tyler Perry se muda para Puerto RicoEste es un programa independiente y sindicalizado. Esto significa que este programa se produce de manera independiente, pero se transmite de manera sindicalizada, o sea, por las emisoras y cadenas de radio que son más fuertes en sus respectivas regiones. También se transmite por sus plataformas digitales, aplicaciones para dispositivos móviles y redes sociales.  Estas emisoras de radio son:1.    Cadena WIAC - WYAC 930 AM Cabo Rojo- Mayagüez2.    Cadena WIAC – WISA 1390 AM Isabela3.    Cadena WIAC – WIAC 740 AM Área norte y zona metropolitana4.    X61 – 610 AM en Patillas5.    X61 – 94.3 FM Patillas y todo el sureste6.    WPAB 550 AM - Ponce7.    ECO 93.1 FM – En todo Puerto Rico8.    WLRP 1460 AM Radio Raíces La voz del Pepino en San Sebastián9.    WOQI 1020 AM – Radio Casa Pueblo desde Adjuntas 10. Mundo Latino PR.com, la emisora web de música tropical y comentario Una vez sale del aire, el programa queda grabado y está disponible en las plataformas de podcasts tales como Spotify, Soundcloud, Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts y otras plataformas https://anchor.fm/sandrarodriguezcotto También nos pueden seguir en:REDES SOCIALES:  Facebook, X (Twitter), Instagram, Threads, LinkedIn, Tumblr, TikTok BLOG:  En Blanco y Negro con Sandra http://enblancoynegromedia.blogspot.com  SUSCRIPCIÓN: Substack, plataforma de suscripción de prensa independientehttps://substack.com/@sandrarodriguezcotto OTROS MEDIOS DIGITALES: ¡Ey! Boricua, Revista Seguros. Revista Crónicas y otrosEstas son algunas de las noticias que tenemos hoy En Blanco y Negro con Sandra. 

We sat down with Chris Hodge, Chief U.S. Economist at Natixis Corporate & Investment Bank Americas, for his outlook on monetary policy in the current rate cycle. Chris joins host Mark Gatto, co-Founder and co-CEO of CION Investments, to discuss whether recent economic data prints point to a disinflationary trend, and how AI capex is bolstering what Chris calls a "three-speed economy" amid flattened consumer spending and declining wage growth.

Join Bank of America's Economics and Rates Strategy teams for a discussion of the latest CPI data, the implications for Federal Reserve policy, and U.S. Treasury buyback developments. Featuring insights from Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Stephen Juneau, Meghan Swiber, and Ralph Axel, this timely conversation explores the key market and macroeconomic takeaways from the latest inflation report. Recorded on September 11, 2026.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

Porfírio Silva diz que os socialistas querem esclarecimentos. Pedro Alves do PSD diz que uma CPI ao ministro seria um "número" da oposição. Maria José Aguiar do Chega fala numa "guerra de desculpas".See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fox dropped Peter for saying inflation would accelerate. August CPI proved it. Now an 88% rate hike, 19-year-high yields, and $100 oil.

There is only one way this ends, and it's not the one everyone right now believes. That's not (just) my take. This is the majority consensus (not that you've heard it) which gets more evidence by the day. Today's CPI, yesterday's PPI, oil, 2s, bills, spreads, RBOB, etc...Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------Want to understand what this data (and so much more) means for your portfolio? Learn how the Eurodollar system really works in the next 30 days so you can better prepare for the risks and opportunities ahead. Book a call using this link. https://eurodollar-university.com/edu-apply-page-page---------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

LOCK IN YOUR EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FALL ONLINE CONFERENCE (OCT 17TH) at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conferenceWe are sowing the seeds of a societal crisis by pushing younger generations into speculation, not true investing, warns portfolio manager Lance Roberts.As a result, we will pay a heavy cost when the reckoning arrives.He and I discuss the reasons why, as well as the latest CPI inflation data, whether the Fed will hike next week and what the likeliest implications will be, bond yields and higher oil prices, as well as his firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.#interestrates #oilprices #bondyields _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.All the details on Thoughtful Money's relationship with the financial advisors it endorses, many of whom regularly appear on this program, can be found in the following documents. We highly recommend you review these documents as they cover the terms that will apply should you choose to work with one of these firms at any time after watching this video.Thoughtful Money Disclosure Document: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/disclosureThoughtful Money Agreement: https://thoughtfulmoney.com/agreementIMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

A jump in rates this week after a volatile stretch of Iran tensions, rising oil prices, and hotter than expected inflation data (PPI and CPI). Headlines are already framing it as bad news, but David Wickert and Tim Holdman break down why it's actually good news for home shoppers right now.They walk through the real math: on a $300,000 mortgage, the week's rate movement added just $51 to the monthly payment. Not the doom and gloom the clickbait suggests. Tim explains why rising rates thin out the competition, pushing sidelined buyers to pause their search while informed shoppers keep moving forward with less bidding pressure.The conversation also covers a real client case: a move up buyer navigating parental leave income rules while trying to purchase a new home before selling their current one. Tim details how mortgage guidelines treat leave income, what documentation lenders need, and how timing between a return to work and the first mortgage payment can make or break qualification.David and Tim close out making the case for working with a mortgage advisor rather than chasing the lowest advertised rate, and why crafting a strong offer matters just as much as getting approved.

The Fed getting its final data reading before next week's rate decision. How this morning's CPI number all but cemented a hike, and where stocks will go after snapping a four-day losing streak. Plus, analyst reaction to the crude cool down, charting Amazon's next move after its recent pullback, and commemorating the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon joins Fast Money ahead of him chairing next week's FDNY Foundation dinner. Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

25 years since the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, Squawk Box remembers those who were lost and those who rebuilt. KBW CEO Tom Michaud, spared that day by mere chance, remembers the third of his colleagues who were killed in the south World Trade Center tower. Michaud also celebrates the heroism and unity that came after that day and highlights ways to foster a resilient community in New York today. In 2026, AI is becoming a flashpoint for concern and for unity. Nvidia's Jensen Huang has suggested that cybersecurity companies stoking the fires of alarm, while President Trump dismissed AI fears and OpenAI's Sam Altman held a company all-hands after AI researchers shared concerns publicly. Plus, August's CPI report has raised the likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Fed. Tom Michaud - 15:13Steve Liesman - 26:14 In this episode: Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawkBecky Quick, @BeckyQuickAndrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinSteve Liesman, @steveliesmanKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Inside Economics team is joined by colleague and CPI guru Matt Colyar to discuss August's CPI inflation report, which came in a touch hotter than expected. Mark ranks his top four inflation culprits, and the team weighs in. Next week's Fed meeting is top of mind, and there's some disagreement about the likelihood of a Fed rate hike.Guest: Matt ColyarTo access Mark and Matt's paper The Fed's Inflation Drama, click here: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=0944A835-CD53-4092-ADD2-B22EEC4A45D3&app=downloadHosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

August prepayments strengthened the view that the 2026 refinance wave has peaked, with Fannie 30-year speeds falling 12 percent to 7.1 CPR and Ginnie II also slowing, leaving subdued near-term runoff and greater extension risk, while higher-coupon VA pools and recent Ginnie vintages remain the key latent prepayment risks if mortgage rates decline materially. Robbie interviews Agile's Greg Vacura on connecting mortgage lenders and broker-dealers to make MBS trading faster, more efficient, transparent, and less reliant on phone-based processes. And rates remain caught between an oversold Treasury market and persistent inflation, fiscal, supply, and geopolitical pressures, with the selloff pushing the 30-year above 5.30 percent and MBS underperforming even after a strong 30-year auction, while rising oil, firm economic data, and a heavy corporate calendar keep the focus squarely on CPI and the Fed's upcoming decision. This week's podcasts are sponsored by NFTYDoor, the white-label HELOC platform for banks, credit unions, and  brokers. Close in zero days with warehouse funding. Power your home equity lending with NFTYDoor.Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.

Hour 2 Segment 1 Tony starts the second hour of the show joined with Indiana Senator Todd Young to recap the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas. They also talk about micro modular reactors coming to Indiana by September 2028. They later talk about data centers and AI. Hour 2 Segment 2 Tony talks about August 2026 CPI prices being more than expected. Hour 2 Segment 3 Tony talks about Pete Hegseth’s speech for the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Hour 2 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the second hour of the show playing more of President Donald Trump’s speech for the 25th anniversary of 9/11. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hour 1 Segment 1 Tony starts the first hour of the show talking about President Donald Trump speaking on the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Tony later tells the story of where he was when 9/11 happened. Hour 1 Segment 2 Tony talks about Jimmy Kimmel complaining about his interview with James Talarico not being able to air on ABC. Hour 1 Segment 3 Tony talks about Gayle King interviewing a Lindsay Clancy juror and finding out that the holdout juror was a black male. Tony also talks about Oprah gathering women and one of the black women saying that she wants the same passion for people who doesn’t look like Lindsay Clancy. Hour 1 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the first hour of the show talking about family members going after Saudi Arabia during her speech at the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Hour 2 Segment 1 Tony starts the second hour of the show joined with Indiana Senator Todd Young to recap the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas. They also talk about micro modular reactors coming to Indiana by September 2028. They later talk about data centers and AI. Hour 2 Segment 2 Tony talks about August 2026 CPI prices being more than expected. Hour 2 Segment 3 Tony talks about Pete Hegseth’s speech for the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Hour 2 Segment 4 Tony wraps up the second hour of the show playing more of President Donald Trump’s speech for the 25th anniversary of 9/11. Hour 3 Segment 1 Tony starts the final hour of the show joined with Steve Yates of The Heritage Foundation to talk about Iran moving the Houthi’s to choke off the Red Sea. Hour 3 Segment 2 Tony talks about the latest on oil prices. Hour 3 Segment 3 Tony talks about Vice President J.D. Vance speaking at the RNC Midterm Convention in Dallas last night. Hour 3 Segment 4 Tony wraps up another edition of the show talking about the rough of a week it’s been for everyone. Tony also talks more about Oprah gathering women and one of the black women saying that she wants the same passion for people who doesn’t look like Lindsay Clancy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Friday's CPI showing a slightly hot core number raised expectations for an interest rate between 85% to 90% in September, according to Collin Martin. If inflation remains stays stubborn, he makes the case the next hike will likely begin a hiking cycle. Alexandra Semenova turns to the "psychological levels" she believes lingers over investors, including crude oil prices hovering around $100. While the inflation picture remains heavy, she points to notable resiliency in stocks. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Orphe Divounguy discusses the "oil story" he sees behind the CPI report and how it firms the inflation outlook. The report comes in the middle of a no hire, no fire job market. It also creates a conundrum for the Fed, which meets next week to decide on whether to hold or raise interest rates for September. Orphe makes the case the FOMC should hold rates next week. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Bo Diamond of Caisson Capital Partners discusses the latest CPI report and its implications for Fed rate hikes, focusing on the August monthly core number and its impact on the probability of a hike. He also analyzes the yield curve and how current restrictive rates are affecting various sectors, with a particular focus on commercial real estate and data centers.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kenny Polcari reflects on the 25th anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks by recounting his own experiences from that day. He turns to his experiences in working with veterans to ensure they get mental health care they need. On the market moves Kenny is seeing Friday, he outlines his expectations for CPI and crude oil as the 10-year Treasury yield continues to tap new multi-year highs. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Green tells investors to brace for an interest rate hike from the Fed as markets price in an all but certain chance of it happening. Friday's CPI print, backed by strong energy headwinds from the U.S.-Iran war, are key components KG sees acting as anchors to those predictions. Crude oil continues to hover around $100 while the nationwide average diesel price hits $6 for the first time ever. Preliminary consumer sentiment data released Friday shows adds to a sour tone on the U.S. outlook. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

A fairly muted CPI print dials up chances for an interest rate hike from the Fed in September. Apple (AAPL) unveiled new phones and other technology at its "Surprise and Shine" event. Oracle (ORCL) closed down on the week despite posting an earnings beat and guidance raise. Sam Vadas takes investors through the top stories of the holiday-shortened trading week.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Inflation got its next big test through Friday's CPI print, which hit in-line on the headline number and climbed 0.1% above core expectations. Kevin Hincks makes the case that the Fed will still hold interest rates as the CME Fed Watch tool continues to indicate chances near 70% for a hike in September. Kenny Polcari joins the conversation and weighs where he sees the direction of interest rates moving. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Hincks calls Friday's CPI report "benign" to kick off the trading session and makes the case that the Fed will not raise interest rates in next week's meeting. The release of the print pulled the 10-year Treasury yield down from its multi-year high. That said, Kevin makes the case the report creates a "real tricky" scenario for the Fed's upcoming decision. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Jayden and Mike discuss today's WASDE for corn and soybeans, along with this morning's CPI report.

Spencer Gray and Griffin Haddad tackle the question every multifamily investor is asking: can apartments recover without cheaper debt? They walk through August's apartment data — rent growth, occupancy, and regional concessions — the pullback in home buying, and what it means for cap rates and deal flow. Plus: modeling acquisitions in a "six-cap world," what to watch in this month's CPI and FOMC decision, and a listener question on industrial real estate near SpaceX's new Texas and Louisiana facilities.Learn more about Gray Capital's current opportunities at graycapitalllc.com.

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line. 00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike 01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets 02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math 04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise 05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons 06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk 07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons 10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Liz Ann Sonders of Charles Schwab says her data is suggesting a likely interest rate hike. She gauges what investors should expect if September's tentative hike is the first of several. Liz Ann adds that the CPI can be a bigger market mover than expected due to the amount of churn in the stock market and the rise in Treasury yields. Mike Townsend sets his expectations for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's communication in next week's interest rate announcement. He also does the math on President Trump's promise of delivering $5,000 to every American if the GOP wins the midterms. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

August PPI is higher than July but in-line with Wall Street estimates, says Kevin Hincks. Stocks still felt pressure following the release of the print. He discusses the "energy-dominated" report and whether the numbers will appear in Friday's CPI. Kevin also talks about crude oil hitting $100 for the first time since May and makes a contrarian take that rising energy prices won't shape the Fed's interest rate trajectory. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

I am the House! Bessent on Yen and other matters (he has inside information). Straight of Hormuz – There is no movement people. CPI coming Friday – many say ultimate Fed test. Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - I am the House! Bessent tonight on Yen and other matters (he has inside information) - Straight of Hormuz - There is no movement people - CPI coming Friday - many say ultimate Fed test - Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles Markets - Chips up, making up for some time - Oil UP! and UP! - Yields keep climbing DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com BOND YIELDS KEEP CLIMBING - Japan now has a 3% 10-year yield while carrying government debt above 200% of GDP. - Higher Japanese yields also create an incentive for domestic investors to bring money home rather than reaching overseas for returns. - The broader bond selloff is hitting the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan at the same time. FED HIKE ODDS RISE - Warsh said the Fed still has “work to do” if officials are not confident inflation is returning to 2%. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller has left open the possibility of holding rates steady if inflation cools. - The September decision is increasingly being dictated by incoming inflation data and oil. -  It is kinda funny.... The “data-dependent Fed” is now apparently oil-dependent, jobs-dependent and whatever-CPI-says-next-week-dependent. OIL KEEPS PRESSURE ON INFLATION - Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil higher and revived fears about supply through the Strait of Hormuz. - The Strait remains one of the most important chokepoints for global energy flows. - Oil is working directly against central banks trying to bring inflation back toward target. -  Basically, central banks can raise rates all they want yet it is too bad that the the Strait of Hormuz does not attend FOMC meetings. SCHWAB VOLATILITY TRADE - Barron's argues low market volatility may not last as fall seasonality and macro risks build. - Schwab could benefit if volatility drives heavier customer trading activity. - The suggested trade used an October risk reversal built around $110 puts and $120 calls. BEAR INVASION - Colorado has logged more than 7,000 bear sightings this year, already a record. - Drought and poor natural food supplies are pushing bears into homes and businesses. - New Mexico and Utah have also reported unusually high numbers of bears being euthanized. - One Colorado homeowner found two bears inside his hallway; another wandered into a vape shop. - Is this a warning for markets????? META SETTLEMENT - Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion over 10 years to settle state claims involving harm to children. - States had been seeking penalties approaching $200 billion. - Teen accounts will face time limits, overnight restrictions and muted school-hour notifications. - Meta did not have to eliminate personalized recommendations or targeted advertising. BROADCOM: NEXT AI CHECK - Broadcom reports Wednesday after the close, another major test of AI spending after Nvidia. - Focus will be on AI semiconductor growth, hyperscaler demand and the outlook for custom AI accelerators. - Broadcom's guidance matters beyond the stock because it offers a read on whether huge data-center spending plans are still accelerating. WEIRD ONE: SHEIN'S UPSIDE-DOWN IPO - Shein is looking to raise about $1.8 billion in its Hong Kong IPO while paying roughly $3.6 billion in cash and stock to early investors. - The payouts stem from investor protections triggered after Shein's valuation collapsed from about $98 billion in 2022 to roughly $26.8 billion. - Some of the same early investors receiving compensation are coming back as cornerstone buyers in the IPO. - Essentially: raise $1.8 billion from new investors while sending twice that amount back to older ones. GOOD GOOD GOES BAD - Good Good Golf's controversial Callaway ad showed co-founder Garrett Clark shoving a female creator in a movie spoof, triggering immediate backlash. - Callaway ended its partnership, Dick's and Golf Galaxy pulled Good Good merchandise, and Golf Channel canceled the current "Big Break x Good Good" season. - Good Good also stepped away as title sponsor of the PGA Tour's November event in Austin. - WOW - the company had more than 2 million YouTube followers and become one of golf's fastest-growing media and merchandise businesses before the blowup. ARGENTINA BEEF PRICE FIX - Trump expanded lower-tariff beef imports by 300,000 metric tons in an effort to bring down record-high U.S. beef prices. - The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 75 years, while USDA expects beef production to fall roughly 4% this year. - Argentina is one source of additional supply, but U.S. ranchers argue cheaper imports could undercut domestic producers just as they are trying to rebuild herds. - Trump says imported beef could help lower prices; farm-state lawmakers and ranch groups say the short-term consumer fix could make the long-term supply problem worse. EUROPE GETS GROWTH AND INFLATION - Euro-zone manufacturing is expanding at its fastest pace in more than four years as headline inflation moves back above 3%. - Stronger factories give the ECB more room to tighten without immediately crushing economic activity. - Much of the new inflation pressure is energy-driven, which higher ECB rates cannot directly fix. - Europe finally gets better manufacturing numbers, so naturally the reward is another rate hike. CHINA'S TWO-SPEED ECONOMY - The private manufacturing PMI showed expansion while the official factory reading remained in contraction. - Export orders strengthened, but services and domestic demand remain weak. - The divergence shows the improvement remains concentrated in exporters. - Alternative Facts: Depending on which PMI you prefer, China's factory sector is either expanding or contracting. Two economies for the price of one. THE $50 BILLION DATA-CENTER IPO - SB Energy is reportedly seeking a valuation above $50 billion despite having no operational data centers. - It reported about $139 million of first-half revenue against a $3.21 billion net loss. - The company claims roughly $439 billion of project backlog. - OpenAI is an investor, warrant holder and major future customer; Nvidia is also providing capital while supplying the chips. - Soooooo...... No operating data centers, billions in losses and a possible $50 billion valuation. At least they remembered to build the valuation first. NVIDIA BUYS HUGGING FACE FOR $13 BILLION - Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for about $12.9 billion. - Hugging Face was valued at $4.5 billion in 2023 and has about $150 million in annual revenue. - Nvidia will pay roughly $11.9 billion to shareholders plus $1 billion in employee retention equity. - Hugging Face will remain open and interoperable. - JC Called this earlier last week. Obviusly the pressure was on since his scoop and they needed to get this done. UNCLE SAM'S STOCK PORTFOLIO - Federal equity positions now include Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals. - Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals all jumped after their respective government deals. - An Intel shareholder lawsuit argues the CHIPS Act did not authorize the government to demand an equity stake. - The case could affect other government investments made using CHIPS Act funding. GEN Z DUMPS THE BUBBLES - Non-carbonated drinks accounted for 38% of new premixed-alcohol launches last year, up from 27% in 2021. - Boston Beer's Sun Cruiser is growing while Truly slows. - Mom Water is on pace to exceed 1 million cases this year. - Lucky One Lemonade sold 1 million cases in its first seven months. - Gen Z has apparently decided carbonation was the problem. TRUMP WANTS LOWER RATES - President Trump called for lower interest rates after the August jobs report. - Markets moved the other way, increasing expectations for a September Fed hike. - Kevin Warsh has kept another rate increase on the table. - Markets were pricing roughly a 60%-plus chance of a quarter-point September hike. JOBS REPORT CRUSHES ESTIMATES - August payrolls rose 162,000 versus roughly 56,000 expected. - July was revised from a 23,000 decline to a 21,000 gain. - Unemployment held at 4.1%. - Labor-force participation rose to 61.6%. - Wage growth eased to 3.1% year over year. MAPQUEST IS NO. 1 AGAIN - MapQuest jumped from No. 128 to No. 1 in the U.S. App Store. - The surge followed its decision to keep the Lake Ontario name. - More than half of its 2026 U.S. downloads reportedly came in just a few days. - Google Maps now shows “Lake America” for U.S. users. AUSTRALIA JOINS THE BOND SELLOFF - Australia's 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5.1%, its highest since 2011. - The three-year yield also jumped as traders priced more central-bank tightening. - Australia joins the U.S., Japan, Germany and U.K. in the global yield surge. DICK'S GETS HIT BY FOOTWEAR - Dick's shares fell more than 25% after earnings. - Earnings, revenue and same-store sales missed expectations. - Foot Locker also disappointed after the acquisition. - Management cited heavier promotions, fewer product launches and discounting of older shoes.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Brian Szytel reviews a down day in markets after Labor Day, noting the Dow fell 628 points while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also declined, though the Dow remains up over 10% year-to-date. Oil prices rose (WTI near $93.6, Brent near $98) amid heightened US-Iran/Middle East tensions, lifting inflation expectations and interest rates and raising concern about energy as a consumption “tax.” He highlights NFIB small business optimism at 98.7 and points to Friday's CPI as the key market-moving event. He discusses the strong nonfarm payrolls report (162,000 vs. ~58,000 expected) alongside discrepancies with private payroll measures, with unemployment around 4.1% and the Fed seen as having a ~60% chance of a September hike amid a split committee and upcoming midterms. He also addresses client concerns about the Hugging Face incident and argues AI will both strengthen and intensify cybersecurity threats, with costs ultimately passed to consumers. 00:00 Market Wrap Kickoff 00:38 Oil Spike And Inflation 01:13 Key Data And CPI Watch 01:38 Jobs Report Breakdown 02:51 Fed Rate Hike Odds 03:28 Cybersecurity And AI Risks 04:47 Closing Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debates whether it's time to get bullish ahead of the big Apple iPhone event and CPI report this week. Plus, we hit the latest Calls of the Day. And later, CNBC's Oliver Renick joins us to discuss the latest Options Action in the Energy Sector. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Citi Wealth's Steven Wieting breaks down what the latest economic signals mean for markets while Interactive Brokers' Steve Sosnick explains why PPI and CPI could determine the next move for rates and stocks. T. Rowe Price portfolio manager Tony Wang discusses Meta, the AI trade and where he sees opportunity across tech. Meantime, Kate Rooney reports on the latest from OpenAI and CFO Sarah Friar. MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett previews Apple's big event and the first major test for CEO John Ternus. BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky reads the technical tea leaves on the market's next move. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

New York Times' bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to break down what he's hearing from the veteran investors in his network — and the shift he's watching in real time. Portfolio managers who spent two years as raging bulls have turned bearish on the financials and are quietly spending a slice of their gains on downside protection while volatility is cheap. McDonald walks through the mechanics of the data center financing boom: hundreds of billions in off-balance-sheet debt from the hyperscalers, the banks now holding that exposure, and the credit default swaps those same banks are buying on the Mag 7. He explains why he sees a late-2006 rhyme in private credit and the CCC market, why diesel prices could re-spark inflation over the next few CPI prints, and why the most crowded trade on Wall Street right now may be the bearish one on bonds. Plus: the "supernova" dynamic that turns a hot economy into a fast recession, why he's still long hard assets, and the one risk he thinks almost nobody is talking about.Thank you to our partners Augusta Precious Metals — To learn more, visit https://juliabuysgold.com/ or text “Julia" to 35052Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: How To Listen When Markets Speak: https://www.amazon.com/Listen-When-Markets-Speak-Opportunities-ebook/dp/B0C4DFVFNR Colossal Failure of Common Sense: https://www.amazon.com/Colossal-Failure-Common-Sense-Collapse/dp/B002IFLWMKTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/Convertbond Bear Traps Report: https://www.thebeartrapsreport.com/0:00 — Intro1:18 — A million books sold, and what the ideas dinners reveal3:07 — Where the smart money is shifting right now4:39 — How investors are buying protection: CDS, puts, VIX ETFs5:35 — Late cycle: data center financing and the Mag 7's cash burn7:00 — Meta's $30B off-balance-sheet financing and what banks did next8:22 — Why banks are buying CDS on the companies they lend to9:42 — Lehman Systemic Risk Indicators: CCCs, LQD, private credit11:00 — "You're manufacturing Bernie Madoffs": no business cycle, no cleansing12:21 — Midterms, the Treasury, and the DSA risk to the long end17:00 — Why inflation isn't as tame as it looks — diesel is the tell18:56 — Scott Bessent vs. the "faculty lounge" Treasury21:44 — The Google bond at 88, the Apple bond at 4923:39 — Are there hidden SVBs out there?25:55 — The contrarian trade: buying duration when everyone's bearish27:42 — What the bond market is signaling29:40 — Why the bad news is 80-90% priced in31:49 — The supernova effect and how recessions actually start33:06 — Hedging equities: puts on the financials at record price-to-book34:30 — Biggest under-the-radar risk36:00 — What he's still long: energy, coal, copper, gold miners37:22 — Where to find the Bear Traps Report

After a surprisingly firm August jobs report Friday that sent stocks down on rate hike fears, the market returns from a holiday weekend awaiting CPI data and Treasury auctions.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for their own particular situation before making any investment or trading decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.For illustrative purposes only. Individual situations will vary. Not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.Investing involves risk, including, for some products, more than your initial investment.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed-income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument.Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here.Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0130-0926) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Cooper Howard says CPI and PPI are the two biggest metrics to watch on this holiday-shortened market week. He believes the inflation data will pave a clearer path on expectations for the Fed and interest rates. Kevin Gordon adds that if either report comes in hot, the FOMC will very likely hike, especially since the August jobs report came in much stronger than expected. However, Cooper makes the argument that no matter what the Fed decides, we will not enter a "rate hiking cycle."======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Escalation between the U.S. and Iran over the holiday weekend caused crude oil prices to climb and stocks to waver. Kevin Hincks discusses the latest macro moves impacting Wall Street and the U.S. Treasury's plans to alleviate pressure. One headline adding pressure: new tariffs from Canada that range between 15% to 50% on some U.S. products. Kevin sets his expectations for CPI and PPI as investors brace for volatility to the stock market and the Fed's interest rate outlook.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

CPI and PPI will be the key market movers Gina Martin Adams has her eyes on this week. She says growth is stable but "stable in the wrong way" as the Fed faces persistent inflation. As Gina explains, "the bull market is not over," investors will just have to brave for a couple months of strong volatility. That volatility can continue into 2027 after stronger-than-expected earnings season raise an already high bar for the future. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

JPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank, just made a big bet on housing—a $750B bet to be exact. At a time when most people hope home prices will fall, JPMorgan is gearing up to lend and invest in a huge way. Could this be a sign that those who buy now will be thanking themselves in the years to come? We're getting into the details in today's show. On the Market is here with a housing market update! First, we're touching on whether or not the market has already peaked in 2026. We still have four full months left in the year, but with home sales falling in July, it could signal that the hot summer is starting to cool. But a surprising type of home is still selling fast—it's not the newly renovated house flip—it's the ugly, outdated home next door. Why? We're explaining in this episode. JPMorgan Chase makes a $750B bet on housing, signaling that America's largest bank is bullish on a certain type of real estate. Finally, the latest inflation rate update—the CPI (consumer price index) stayed in check last month, but is it enough to stop the Federal Reserve from raising rates? In This Episode We Cover Inside JPMorgan Chase's $750B investment into affordable housing  The latest inflation rate update and what it could mean for your interest rate  Why buyers don't want your renovated home (they want the ugly one next door) A new 2026 home sale prediction and whether or not prices are still rising  Two types of homes that are selling fast in 2026 (and why yours might not be)  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠h⁠⁠t⁠t⁠ps://www⁠.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1327. Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Keith breaks down the "baseline trap" in investor psychology, showing how rising income and lifestyle creep can quietly undermine the feeling of financial freedom.  He then shares a grounded outlook for U.S. home prices, outlining how inflation, AI-driven job growth, limited inventory, and strong homeowner equity are shaping the market.  He closes with a data-driven look at where population growth is heading through 2040, especially in Texas and Florida, and what that could mean for long-term real estate demand and investing strategy. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/622 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Investor psychology often falls into the baseline trap. Learn what's going to happen to home prices over the next year. Then more than half of America's population growth until 2040 will occur in just these two states. All today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Homebuyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6000 homes under management, for a free live webinar the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth again. that september 30. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth   Speaker 1  1:34   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:50   Welcome to GRE from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to Jackson, Mississippi, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. This is Get Rich Education, and Happy Labor Day. Let's talk about your investor psychology, because as you grow your wealth and your portfolio size, there is a trap that you will almost certainly fall into, and I'm not infallible. I've fallen into this trap to some extent too. That is the baseline trap. It's the tendency for every improvement in your income, your wealth, or your lifestyle to become your new normal. Once this happens, the improvement stops feeling like progress, and you need even more just to feel equally successful, if you get used to flying first class and then you have to drop back to coach again, it feels less like flying and more like being deported. Psychologically, we fall into the baseline trap because the human mind evaluates Life relatively, not absolutely. We don't simply ask ourselves how good is my life, how good is my situation. Instead, we ask how does this compare with what I've recently experienced, what I expected, and what others have, and there are a number of forces that drive the baseline trap. One is hedonic adaptation. Hedonic means pleasure seeking. People rapidly adjust to improvements. The first month of receiving a new $5,000 in passive income that feels transformative. After two years, it feels completely ordinary. The income didn't become less valuable. Your nervous system simply stopped registering it as new. Yesterday's luxury became today's wallpaper. A force driving the baseline trap is a shifting reference point. Gains and losses are measured against a mental baseline. Once your portfolio reaches, say, a $2 million net worth, well, your mind soon begins treating the $2 million as mine. You're like, hey, this is mine now, even if much of it came from recent appreciation. A decline to 1.8 million, therefore, feels like losing 200k rather than still having substantially more wealth than you did just a few years ago. Well, instead, you're only focused on the 200k paper loss. Then there's loss aversion psychologically. Losses generally hurt more than equivalent gains feel good. After a higher standard becomes normal, surrendering and. Any part of it feels like some blood-curdling loss. That's why reducing spending from 20k to 15k per month that can feel painful, even if 15k once felt luxurious to you.   Keith Weinhold  5:16   There's also the lifestyle creep component. People convert variable gains into fixed commitments. What do I mean? I mean like a strong income year. Oh, pretty soon that becomes a larger mortgage. Rental cash flow that becomes a vehicle payment. A bonus that becomes private school tuition, portfolio appreciation. Well, that supports new borrowing. See, pleasures that were once optional have now become obligations. And you got to ask, wait, how did that happen to you? You're supposed to have a life of options and not obligations. That's what financial freedom is supposed to be. The baseline then is no longer merely psychological; it becomes embedded in real monthly expenses. Then there's also the dangerous driver of the baseline trap that's called, oh no, social comparison. We commonly measure success against our peers, but instead, what you should do is measure it against your former self. Because as you become wealthier, see your comparison group changes too. If you've got five rentals, you soon stop comparing yourself with someone that owns none, you might even begin comparing yourself with people who own 50 of them, and why not? It's natural, after all. That is where you want to go, despite enormous progress. See, that's how you can feel left further behind. Then there's the recency bias. Your mind gives enormously disproportionate weight to recent experience. A few years of 15% returns, like what happened in 2021 and 2022 in real estate. Oh, you could begin expecting 15% after rapidly appreciating real estate, continued appreciation feels normal. A favorable cycle gets mistaken for the natural baseline, and then when conditions normalize, ordinary performance feels rather defective. Then there's identity inflation. That's a trap. This is when accomplishments become woven into your very identity, like I'm a multi-million-dollar entrepreneur, or I own 20 properties, or my income always grows. Okay, once success becomes identity, maintaining the baseline feels necessary just to preserve your self worth. Now, with this condition, see a temporary setback. It doesn't merely affect the numbers.   Keith Weinhold  8:08   It feels like evidence that you're becoming a lesser person, and the brain rewards progress more than possession. Humans are energized by movement toward a goal, reaching the goal often produces less lasting satisfaction than you expect. Buying the 10th rental creates a dopamine hit, and owning it three years later does not. The investor therefore creates another target, not always because another property is even needed, but because continued pursuit restores the feeling of progress, success erases the memory of constraint. As your wealth grows, it becomes difficult to remember emotionally what financial insecurity even felt like I mean you might intellectually remember earning 60k, but you no longer experience today's 300k income in comparison with it. Your comparison point quietly changes from your former life to your best recent year. The paradox is that your circumstances improve faster than your experience of them? The goal is not to stop growing; it is to prevent every improvement from becoming a new psychological necessity. Keep growing your means, but don't let success redefine enough every time you achieve it, don't let it redefine enough. Let's say you acquire rentals and you do generate another 5k per month. The trap is that your spending and expectations gradually rise by 5k. You're wealthier, but you don't. Don't feel freer. Instead of investments buying freedom, they merely finance a more expensive baseline, and it can distort how you view your portfolio. 10 properties once felt like an extraordinary accomplishment, and soon 10 feels ordinary, and 20 becomes necessary. You keep moving the finish line, and this is closely related to hedonic adaptation and lifestyle creep. But it extends beyond spending because your definition of enough keeps on rising. So the antidote certainly is not living small forever-it's deliberately separating the growth rates of your assets and your lifestyle. What you want to do is grow your means faster than you grow your baseline. Really, that's the key. You're gonna be more satisfied. Instead of simply living below your means, you sure do want to grow your means, but don't let every gain become a permanent new obligation. Let some additional cash flow purchase you things like time, resilience, and optionality-not merely nicer recurring expenses. If your lifestyle rises as fast as your passive income, you're wealthier, but no freer.   Keith Weinhold  11:28   So here's what you do: when your income rises, let your lifestyle rise about half that much. Otherwise, if you upgrade your lifestyle too much, say that you receive an extra $3,000 in monthly rental income, then you add in a luxury car payment, better vacations, and more expensive restaurants. Pretty soon, that extra 3k that feels necessary instead of liberating, and then there's also the record income comparison part of the trap. Say your business earns $1 million during an exceptional year. The next year, it earns a still impressive 850k, but you experience it as failure because the unusually strong year became your new baseline. Don't let that happen. You can compare yourself to others that can be motivating, but the more important comparison is to the former you. Now, another way that investors fall into the baseline trap in real estate is how an exceptional market becomes the standard. Say that you bought rental properties in 2012. Well, 2012 was perhaps the best time to buy real estate in generations. This was shortly after the global financial crisis, so there was this confluence of low prices, low interest rates, strong cash flow, and you had little competition as well. I mean, you had it all in 2012, and those deals performed spectacularly in today's market. Available properties produce lower initial cash flow, but they could still deliver respectable total returns through appreciation, rent income, principal paydown, tax benefits, and inflation profiting. But a losing investor rejects all of those things because they aren't as attractive as the once-in-a-generation deals of 2012, or even the rock-bottom low-rate days of 2020, they fell into the baseline trap. The trap here is that an unusually favorable period for real estate became the new benchmark. It's sort of like how last week I told you about how the deal structure always changes over time from the Reagan administration until today. Today the deal is with Burr properties, and it's also with buying new builds with rate buydowns. But see, in 2012 there were almost zero available new build properties that were created for investors to rent to others.   Keith Weinhold  14:25   Over time, with these new builds that you're adding now, you're going to have fewer maintenance and repair expenses. Tenants tend to stay in new builds longer, and new builds appreciate better over the long run. See, I wasn't getting any of those benefits in 2012, and I bought rental real estate in 2012, and I bought real estate recently as well. Not falling into the baseline trap, because today it's still difficult to find any investment bet. Than residential real estate with a loan, it is a scarce asset that people are going to continue to need. So here we are today, about 15 years on from 2012. Water market conditions like now. Let's talk about that and what can we expect for the next year? National home prices keep rising, but they're only about one half of 1% higher than they were a year ago. I mean, that's an appreciation level with the enthusiasm of someone attending a seven a.m. meeting. I do expect national home prices to keep rising modestly over the next year. Let me tell you about why, and then what the drivers are. And to be clear, we're talking about single-family homes up to fourplexes here. I'll discuss apartments later today. Well, the drivers for continued price growth are many of the same reasons that home prices are up just a little since last year. There are four of them. These four are inflation, the AI boom, short inventory, and a lack of distressed sellers. So let's unpack all of these four factors that I've identified for putting a floor underneath home prices, inflationary pressure is poised to raise replacement cost, energy, wages, and tariffs make those inputs more expensive, and the more war we have, the more inflation we have. A home is a bundle of land, labor, lumber, concrete, copper, and all sorts of energy inputs, plus 14 trips to Home Depot because someone forgot the correct nails and screws. That's what a home is. Recent home price growth it has lagged today's 3.4% CPI inflation rate. So again, we're not even talking about inflation-adjusted gains here. AI that creates local housing heat. It's not so much a nationwide driver of home prices. And in a moment, I'll tell you the top five housing markets for AI-led home price growth, but how does AI investment push up home prices anyway? How does that happen? People are getting high salaries, signing bonuses, and stock options that produces well-funded buyers. They make big down payments, or they even pay all cash for homes, and when a buyer pays all cash for a home, they can pay absolutely any price because they don't have to get an appraisal that comes along with a loan for a financed property.   Keith Weinhold  17:53   That's how all cash buyers can really push up prices. The growth in AI companies that has really helped push the S and P 500 higher that fuels a wealth effect nationwide that makes everybody feel wealthier regardless of where you live as long as you're invested in the stock market but the localized effects with those higher AI wages and signing bonuses in order they are most potent in San Francisco, San Jose, Seattle, New York City, and Boston, and none of those are good cash flow investor markets. Still, short housing inventory is contributing to higher prices, and hey, it's time that we check on this again. Ever since the inventory crunch started to plummet in 2021 and reached its lowest point in 2022, I've been updating you on the housing supply, and I always keep it same same. I cite the same data source, the Federal Reserve Economic Data's active listing count, Fred's active listing count, which counts single-family and townhomes and condos, all wrapped up in this number. And the figure it still hasn't recovered at 1.1 million homes. Now it is 2% higher than last year, 2% more supply than last year, but overall housing supply is still 9% below pre-pandemic levels. And there's one important thing to keep in mind that most don't think about when you hear that figure that housing supply is 9% below pre-pandemic times in 2019, that does not mean we're 9% short. That is because even in 2019 there was a housing shortage, and we are 9% below that yet, keeping. Upward pressure on prices and the most supply-constrained markets today. It includes both good and poor cash-flowing investor markets.   Keith Weinhold  20:10   They are New York City, Chicago, San Francisco, Hartford, Providence, Milwaukee, Boston, Cleveland, Virginia Beach, and Kansas City. All of those places remain especially tight with housing inventory, and then finally, this fourth of four reasons I've cited for continued upward pressure on home prices are the fact that distressed sellers-they are few and far between-and you need a lot of those in order to have a serious down cycle, after the 2008 housing crash, millions of owners were underwater. They owed more on their homes than they were worth. Lending standards were irresponsibly loose. Adjustable rate mortgages were resetting higher. I mean, a lot of people had little choice but to sell or to hand the keys back to the bank. Distress, distress, distress. Today is almost the mirror image. Here's what's really happening with homeowners having this record equity position today-an average of over $300,000. Many also locked in at fixed mortgage rates below 5% it means that they're enjoying perhaps the cheapest long-term debt that they are ever going to have. Lending standards have been strong, foreclosure rates remain low, and virtually nobody is being forced to sell. That matters more than most people think because housing crashes need a lot of forced sellers, owners who must accept almost any price in order to escape the property. But today, most homeowners they can simply either stay put, or if they're going to move out of the home, keep it and rent out the home, or they can wait for a better offer. No distress. In other words, buyers might be frustrated, but sellers-they're just not desperate. And without desperation, it is difficult for home prices to fall sharply. So the bottom line here with today's home prices and looking into next year, home price growth is apparent, but it's weak. The ingredients for a national price collapse are nowhere to be found, so this does not spell boom or crash. Home prices appear poised to keep slowly grinding higher, but with this low affordability, that keeps them from soaring, say 10 or 12% higher. I don't see that happening. And of course, each December, I make my home price forecast to the exact percentage point for the year ahead, so you can look forward to that soon. The Get Rich Education home price appreciation forecast that I made late last year for this year. It looks like it's going to be almost spot on. Of course, unlike a lot of analysts, transparently, I also give you the result of how closely the forecast hit the target every year, so you can look forward to that too. Hey, if you like this show, there's more content where this comes from. Sign up for our complimentary newsletter. That way, you can see the graphs and charts and maps that I break down. If you like what you hear on Get Rich Education, every week I show you what's really happening with real estate rents, inflation, interest rates, and the economy, and more importantly, what you can do about it. You'll get sharp insights, useful opportunities, and a few laughs along the way. Yeah, a couple knee slappers sprinkled in there with actionable strategies, like the savviest way to get rent increases. Get smarter in just a three to four minute read every week. Join 1000s of smart investors right now at greletter.com because your inbox could use fewer coupons and more financial freedom. That is greletter.com. More straight ahead.   Keith Weinhold  24:20   I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education. What if you got your mortgage loans the same place I get mine? You sure can at Ridge Lending Group NMLS 42056. They provided GRE listeners with more loans than anyone because Ridge specializes in investment property. They'll help you build a long-term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequal and even chat directly with President Chaley Ridge. While it's on your mind, start at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Let me ask you something. If you've worked hard to build wealth, is your. Money positioned to actually support your goals. A lot of accredited investors leave capital sitting in cash because it feels safe, but inflation and missed income opportunities can quietly erode its value. Freedom Family Investments offers freedom notes for investors seeking structured income backed by real estate. It's a straightforward approach built on real assets, not speculation. In full disclosure, I'm an investor myself. What I like is that their team walks you through how it all works, so you can decide if it aligns with your portfolio and income goals. Every investment carries risk, and nothing is guaranteed. But with a track record of consistent, on-time investor payouts. They built real credibility. Go to freedomfamilyinvestments.com to book a clarity call, or text family to 66866. That's family to 66866.    Dana Dunford  25:59   This is Hemline's co-founder Dana Dunford. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your daydream.   Keith Weinhold  26:15   Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one episode 622, and you're listening to it. I hope you're enjoying the late summer. I'm wringing every bit of time and enjoyment out of it that I can. I don't know if this part was enjoyable, but I ran an all-out mile on a track. I wanted to see how fast I could run a mile. I had a friend pace me, and I got a 631. I was happy with that since I hadn't done any specific training. Yes, a mile is more than four laps on a track as well. Did you know that? Yes, this detail-oriented shaved mammal here diligently measured off that extra nine point something meters. Ah, I'll tell you that fourth lap hurt so badly that if my buddy weren't there, I might have just quit and not finished the mile. But summer's days are numbered, and that's too bad because it is my favorite season of the year. The NFL season kicks off in just two days on the ninth, with Seattle hosting the New England Patriots in a rematch of last year's Super Bowl. So then, I guess it looks like your productivity for the week will end with a respectable two-day run as you tune in to that game. Where is the future demand for real estate going to come from? It comes from a growing population. The U.S. is expected to add 21 and a half million people from 2025 to 2040. 21 and a half million more people. The overall population it's expected to grow from about 341 million up to 363 million. That is where we're going. That's per the Census Bureau and the University of Virginia, projecting 341 up to 363 by the year 2040, which is just a little over 13 years away. Okay, so that part is not so surprising, but here is what is absolutely staggering: more than half of this entire increase is projected to occur in just two states, just two of the 50 states, more than half of the increase. Do you know what they are? In fact, I showed you a map of this in a recent newsletter, but I can talk about it and expand on it more here.   Keith Weinhold  28:52   The two states that are expected to account for more than half of the nation's overall population growth through 2040 are Texas and Florida. They're already the second and third most populous states, respectively. It's kind of like America looked at the map, checked their weather app, and started packing sunscreen. Texas is expected to add 6.6 million residents. Florida welcoming another 4.6 million during this span. So that is over 11 million new people between them. This is like taking the entire population of Georgia and dropping it into those two already booming states, that much growth in this fairly short period of time, for real estate investors, more people that generally means more demand for our housing product, and I'll get back to the staggering Texas and Florida imbalance in just a moment. Because there are big gains in other investor-friendly southeastern states like Georgia and Tennessee, the Mountain West should swell alone. The South, okay, the region that the Census Bureau delineates as the South, which sort of runs from Maryland all the way down south and then west out toward Texas, the South just until 2040 is expected to account for 78 percent of the growth. That is just staggering. Cash flow hotbed Indiana that should grow by nearly a quarter million residents as well. The Carolinas are ballooning. Already the most densely populated state in the nation, New Jersey, that will get more dense with some pretty healthy population growth. Its residents have not discovered elbow room, but not every state is adding population. 14 states are expected to shrink, led by Illinois losing 650,000 people and New York down 457k. Again, this is all through 2040. In fact, a small loss cluster actually runs through the South, though West Virginia, Mississippi, and Louisiana-they're projected to lose 440,000 people combined. You know that whole theory that sometimes you hear people talk about, like with Earth warming and drying, you're going to have people stampeding toward the freshwater Great Lakes states. That is probably farcical. That just has not shown up in the data. That people are moving in droves to say cooler Michigan and Wisconsin for those reasons.   Keith Weinhold  31:46   It's just not happening now. Of course, population projections are not delivered from Mount Sinai on stone tablets. Besides births and deaths, the level of future immigration, of course, that's the real wild card here. After the Trump presidency ends by 2029, the next administration that could tighten or loosen the immigration spigot, that could materially reshape the map. But they're probably not going to tighten immigration. I mean, they couldn't because the flow really couldn't be crimped much more than it already is. People love to poke fun at California, but even in 2040, it is expected to barely retain its crown and edge out Texas to still be the most populous state: 39 million versus 38 million, respectively, for California and Texas by 2040. But yeah, Texas and Florida-they are the real stories here, and why droves of people are attracted there for cheaper housing, jobs, warm weather, a business-friendly environment, and Texas and Florida are also places where builders can still build without completing some side quest worthy of a video game with all their permits and regulations and roadblocks. You're largely free of those things in Texas and Florida. Now there are two more important factors to keep in mind here. Some bigger picture context. I've talked before about how the overall American mobility rate is down, and this is a long, long trend. Decade after decade, fewer people move and more people stay put, which is contrary to popular belief. This lower mobility rate, and another factor that gives you perspective is that as real estate investors, we know all this stuff I've been talking about here. These population changes-they only look at the demand side. The supply side matters just as much, despite their slower population growth. Northeast and Midwest states build less new inventory, and that is why Northeastern and Midwestern housing prices and rents are still growing faster today than they are in the Sun Belt, despite all of those Sun Belt construction cranes. You know, too many construction cranes. It looks bullish, and it actually is, but it spikes supply and it suppresses prices. And really, the bottom line here with American population growth from now until 2040 is follow the people, but count the rooftops. Population growth creates housing demand, while limited construction creates scarcity.   Keith Weinhold  34:46   The best opportunities often emerge where those two forces collide. That's what you really want to look for: demand and scarcity. Now, the apartment space. We all know that's been beleaguered for about three or four years, ever since higher mortgage rates set in and high construction levels conspired to keep apartment rents suppressed. In fact, multifamily construction had a peak in this cycle during 2024. That's when 600,000 units were built back in 2024. That was the most new apartment supply since 1986. That is when Cheers, MacGyver, and Miami Vice were on television. Run DMC was on urban radio. MTV was a dominant cultural force, the most new apartment supply since 1986. That's when kids were playing with GI Joe's, He-Man, and My Little Pony. For adults, fashion-wise, they were wearing enough shoulder padding to survive a minor collision. So, lots of new apartment supply to get absorbed. It is getting more and more absorbed. There are more signs there now because the national median apartment rent has now increased for seven months in a row. That's according to Apartment List. Also, the apartment vacancy rate has dropped for six straight months, and do you have any idea what the national apartment vacancy rate is? It has dropped down to now 7.1% Inevitably, overbuilt apartments will be absorbed with a growing population. Lots of great episodes coming up here on the show, where you might be in for a surprise next week. A renowned macro economist will be here on the show with us. I think we all know that in 1971, the U.S. had a lot of economic changes. That's when Nixon completely eliminated us from the gold standard, and the economic system shifted from capitalism to creditism back then. Well, now we appear to be leaving creditism and entering a new economic phase. This could be seismic. Next week here on the show, he'll reveal what the new era is called and how you need to prepare for it, that's next week here on episode 623. If you haven't yet, be sure to hit the follow button or subscribe button on your podcatcher so that you don't miss it.   Keith Weinhold  37:31   Again, if you like what you hear here each week, the GRE "Don't Quit Your Daydream" letter gives you the sharpest ideas of the week in about three or four quick hitting minutes, you'll get surprising housing data, wealth building strategies, timely opportunities, news that a lot of times you can't get anywhere else, and maps and charts that make you say, "Wait, what? It's smart, useful, entertaining, and completely free. Thousands of investors read it every week, and believe it or not, I'm actually more of a writer than a talker. Don't just listen to Get Rich Education, get the letter at greletter.com. That's greletter.com. Until next week, I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 2  38:23   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal, or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.    Keith Weinhold  38:51   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com

Is the Consumer Price Index accurately measuring the inflation Americans actually experience? Lance Roberts talks with Oliver Rust of Truflation about how real-time inflation data can differ from traditional CPI measurements. They examine housing and rent concessions, regional price differences, consumer substitution, the K-shaped economy, housing affordability, and the continuing resilience of consumer spending. Oliver also explains how Truflation builds its inflation index, where its methodology differs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, its work with the Federal Reserve, and what its data says about inflation now. Plus, they discuss what could come next as Truflation expands into employment and other economic indicators. For investors watching inflation, interest rates, housing, and the Federal Reserve, the question is increasingly important: Which inflation data best reflects the economy consumers are actually living in? 0:00 - INTRO 0:55 - What is Wrong with current Inflation/CPI Measurement? 2:46 - The Data Truflation Uses 5:36 - Solving for Interstate Price Variables 6:46 - How is Housing Weighted in Truflation Metric vs BLS & CPI 10:24 - The Concessions in Rental Agreements are not accounted for 15:00 - What is Inflation Doing Now? 16:42 - The Bifurcation in Housing - New Homes vs Existing Home Sales 18:23 - Housing Affordability & K-Shaped Economy 21:17 - Who's Right: CPI or Truflation? (Working with the Fed) 25:51 - The Boskin Commission & Hedonics - What Truflation Does Not Measure 28:40 - Factoring in Substitution by Consumers 30:46 - Effects of FIFA World Cup in U.S. 33:01 - Truflation Expectations for the Future 36:20 - The Resilience of the Consumer - how long will they spend? 38:22 - What if Truflation Had Been Around Back Then... 40:14 - Truflation Plans for Expansion: Employment & Economic Indicators 41:49 - Cross Correlation of data sets is worth reviewing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Oliver Rust, TruFlation Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/603EdhToXq8 ------- Watch our previous show, " " ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #CPI #FederalReserve #Economy #Investing