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In this episode we answer emails from The Nameless One, Jebenizer, and C.M. We discuss practice drawdown portfolios, an unusual deferred pension cash build-up situation and how to handle it, assets that benefit from inflation, and simple rules for contributions and rebalancing that reduce taxes and stress. And we share an update about Frank's Mom.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page (please mention Risk Parity Radio in the comment section with your donation): Donate - Father McKenna CenterRose Vasquez Memorial: Rose Vasquez Memorial Service July 15, 2026Bigger Pockets Money Podcast #1: The Secret to a 5% Safe Withdrawal Rate | Frank VasquezBigger Pockets Money Test Risk Parity Style Portfolio: We Built a 5% SWR Retirement Portfolio Using Fidelity in 48 Minutes (Golden Ratio Portfolio)Afford Anything Podcast #618: They Ran Out of Money. I Didn't. Here's Why.Afford Anything Risk Parity Portfolio Blueprint: Afford Anything frank-vasquez-risk-parity-portfolio-BluePrint.pdf - Google DriveSlide Deck: Afford Anything Episode 618 RPR Basics Slide Deck.pdf - Google DriveVideo Summary: Afford Anything Episode 618 Video Summary.mp4 - Google DriveBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:A retirement portfolio is one thing on paper and something else entirely when you have to live with it. We start with a quick personal update, then jump into listener emails that turn risk parity investing into hands-on decision-making you can actually copy and test. Along the way, we talk about the “Top of the T-shirt” charity campaign and why we keep the show sponsor-free, then pivot into the kind of practical portfolio questions that show up right before retirement.One listener builds a $10,000 drawdown portfolio as a practice run while still in the accumulation phase. The rules are clear: rebalance annually, withdraw 5% of the original amount every year, increase that withdrawal by CPI, and do not save it. We dig into why this simple experiment is so effective for building confidence with withdrawals, rebalancing discipline, and the real emotions that come with spending from an investment account. We also connect it to the Golden Ratio portfolio concept and how diversified asset allocation can support higher safe withdrawal rates.Another listener has a rare situation: a deferred pension option that forces pension payments into a tax-deferred account earning a flat 4%, creating a growing cash-like allocation with limited liquidity. We explain how to treat that cash as part of the total portfolio right now, how it can change your stock and bond mix, and what to do when the funds become available. We also tackle inflation hedging for retirement planning, including why Treasury bonds suffer in inflation, how value stocks like property and casualty insurers can help, and why managed futures can be a powerful inflation hedge.If you like clear rules, real portfolios, and honest trade-offs, subscribe, share the episode with a friend, and leave a review so more do-it-yourself investors can find us.Start with this DescriptionSupport the show
On this edition of The Federalist Radio Hour, Vice President of Programs at the Conservative Partnership Institute and former Senate Legislative Director Rachel Bovard joins Federalist Senior Elections Correspondent Matt Kittle to discuss the path forward for the SAVE America Act and how Senate Republicans could take advantage of public support for voter ID. They also discuss the farm-worker amnesty bill supported by congressional Republicans, the Supreme Court's birthplace citizenship decision, and how conservatives need to improve their judicial vetting process. You can find Bovard's articles for The Federalist here. The Federalist Foundation is a nonprofit, and we depend entirely on our listeners and readers — not corporations. If you value fearless, independent journalism, please consider a tax-deductible gift today at TheFederalist.com/donate. Your support keeps us going.
In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.
Brian Szytel recaps a Tuesday market rebound led by momentum stocks and semiconductors, with the Dow up over 300 points, the S&P 500 up 0.9%, and the Nasdaq up 1.3%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.63% and oil climbed to about $84 WTI and $91 Brent amid the Iran war, pressuring inflation expectations and rates. With no major economic data, he focuses on demand-pull inflation and the lagged relationship between money supply (M2) and CPI, noting M2 is up ~3.5% year-to-date and nearly 6% over 12 months, suggesting inflation could bias higher 12–18 months out despite a cooler June CPI. He discusses the Fed's inflation-fighting rhetoric, an estimated high chance of a rate hike before year-end, and potential headwinds to risk assets from tighter policy and balance-sheet shrinkage. He also explains that point moves typically refer to the Dow for public discussion, while deeper market analysis relies on the broader S&P 500. 00:00 Market Bounce Recap 01:02 Rates and Oil Move 01:37 Money Supply and CPI 03:05 Fed Hike Risk Ahead 04:52 Dow vs S&P Explained 06:41 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Confira os destaques de Os Pingos nos Is desta segunda-feira (20):O apresentador André Marsiglia fez um forte alerta sobre a entrada em vigor de dois decretos do governo federal. As medidas dão poder à Agência Nacional de Proteção de Dados (ANPD), vinculada ao Ministério da Justiça, para fiscalizar e punir redes sociais. Marsiglia destacou o risco dessa estrutura atuar durante o processo eleitoral, comparando a situação a um time de futebol que passa a controlar o próprio árbitro da partida. Entraram em vigor nesta segunda-feira (20) os dois novos decretos assinados pelo governo federal que reestruturam a regulação e fiscalização das redes sociais no Brasil. As medidas concedem competências à Agência Nacional de Proteção de Dados (ANPD), vinculada ao Ministério da Justiça, para aplicar sanções e exigir a remoção de conteúdos e anúncios considerados ilícitos ou fraudulentos. O senador e pré-candidato à Presidência Flávio Bolsonaro publicou um vídeo nas redes sociais onde realiza compras de mercado e compara o valor das mercadorias durante a gestão do seu pai, Jair Bolsonaro, com os preços praticados no governo Lula. Ao final da apuração, o senador afirmou que a conta "ficou salgada" e declarou que o poder de compra dos brasileiros sofreu um forte impacto. Durante evento do PL em Vitória, o senador e pré-candidato Flávio Bolsonaro fez duras acusações contra o ministro Alexandre de Moraes, afirmando que o magistrado pratica advocacia administrativa e atacando a atuação profissional de sua esposa. A declaração ocorreu logo após Moraes ampliar as restrições ao ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro, proibindo contatos políticos e manifestos até o fim do pleito de 2026, além de manter a suspensão de visitas de Flávio por 90 dias. A especulação criada por Romeu Zema sobre ter Michelle Bolsonaro como sua candidata a vice na disputa presidencial provocou forte reação na cúpula do PL e gerou mal-estar com aliados de Jair Bolsonaro. Embora a ex-primeira-dama tenha descartado a hipótese, o episódio expôs o peso do seu nome no jogo político. Levantamento publicado pelo Poder360 aponta que o Supremo Tribunal Federal atingiu recorde histórico de decisões sobre "omissões inconstitucionais", acumulando 109 análises desse tipo nos últimos anos. A atuação da Corte, que passa a legiferar e decidir ativamente quando entende que o Executivo e o Legislativo não regulam determinados temas, acentuou o clima de conturbação e a crise institucional entre os Poderes. O procurador-geral da República, Paulo Gonet, decidiu enviar para a Procuradoria Regional Eleitoral em Sergipe todo o dossiê da representação feita pelo ministro do STF Gilmar Mendes contra o senador Alessandro Vieira (MDB-SE). A medida ocorre após Vieira pedir o indiciamento de ministros do STF e do próprio PGR no relatório da CPI do Crime Organizado. O ministro André Mendonça, do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF), barrou a transferência e venda de um terreno avaliado em R$ 15 milhões pertencente ao senador Jaques Wagner (PT-BA). A medida faz parte das restrições determinadas no âmbito da Operação Compliance Zero, que investiga supostas irregularidades e esquemas de propina envolvendo o Banco Master. Os 21 partidos políticos com representação no Congresso Nacional responderam à intimação do ministro do STF, Flávio Dino, e defenderam que a indicação e distribuição de emendas parlamentares seja uma prerrogativa exclusiva de deputados e senadores no exercício do mandato. O ditador da Nicarágua, Daniel Ortega, descartou publicamente a realização de novas eleições no país, declarando o fim da alternância política de poder. O editor de internacional da Jovem Pan, Fabrizio Neitzke, trouxe os detalhes e os objetivos por trás de mais esse passo autoritário do regime sandinista na América Central. Você confere essas e outras notícias em Os Pingos nos Is.
An independent economist comments on New Zealand’s annual inflation rate hitting its highest level in more than two years on rising fuel prices. The consumer price index (CPI) increased 4.1% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter. The 4.1% increase follows a 3.1% increase in the March quarter. The largest upward contributor to the annual inflation rate was petrol, up 27.5%.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Cyra (a doctor and chartered accountant) hosts GP Dr Steve Taylor and specialist medical adviser Andy Pow to discuss UK general practice finances. They describe long-term underfunding, noting average practice income rose from £152 to £169 per patient since 2015 but would be ~£209 if it had tracked CPI, alongside rising workload and patients per GP (about 2,000 to 2,300). They explain circular funding changes, staffing pay pressures, the imposed contract, and concerns about advice-and-guidance replacing referrals without extra resource. Andy outlines how the Carr-Hill (global sum) weighting can mean some practices are paid for fewer patients (e.g., 83%), with a review pending that could redistribute money without new investment. They warn of practice closures, rural access issues, private providers buying contracts, low morale (99% contract rejection), and argue for additional funding, autonomy, and proper consultation on reforms.00:00 Welcome and Guests 02:04 Underfunding Explained 05:05 Contract Uplift Reality 09:04 Car Hill Formula Basics 13:21 Funding Streams and Workload 14:39 GP Workforce Paradox 17:02 Partnership Pressures 20:14 Trust and Investment Case 23:22 Closures and Private Providers 27:09 Morale and Central Impositions 30:25 Contract Positives 33:04 Final Thoughts and Thanks Want the latest financial tips for doctors and exclusive invites?Join 71,000 doctors here https://www.medicsmoney.co.uk/join-medics-money/ Want a free assessment of your finances? Click here https://medics-hnz5twj1.scoreapp.com Want to improve your finances fast? Then come on our course https://www.medicsmoney.co.uk/medics-money-financial-wellbeing-course/ Want to find out more about our other courses? www.medicsmoney.co.uk/courses Follow us on Instagram Follow us on Twitter **Disclaimer:** The information provided in this content is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. You should not rely on this content as a substitute for professional advice tailored to your specific financial situation. The value of your investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not indicative of future results.DISCLAIMER: This channel is for education purposes only and does not constitute financial advice and tax allowances and rates are subject to change.
There's cautious optimism from economists that inflation will start falling after today. Stats NZ is releasing CPI figures for the June quarter later this morning, which is expected to largely reflect the impact of the Iran war, along with other cost pressures like rates and utility costs. Economists expect it surge to somewhere around 4%. BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking that based on their forecasts, this should be the peak. He says next quarter BNZ predicts inflation to come down to 3.8%, before it tails away to be within the Reserve Bank's band in the middle of next year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
COLOMBO AND COMPANY 0:00 SEG 1 Gabe Phifer Gabe and Tony react to a shocking Minnesota story: a local paper praised Tim Walz for granting clemency to a convicted child rapist, sparking outrage and disbelief. 18:20 SEG 2 Gabe PhiferGabe and Tony turn their attention to Darlene Graham Nordon, sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham, debating whether she’s truly qualified to step into his shoes. Rumor has it she’s not just a temporary stand-in—she’s planning to run for the seat next term. The duo weighs what this move could mean for the state’s political future. 30:17 SEG Paul Curtman Paul joins us for a fast-paced market update after the collapse of the Iran peace deal. He unpacks the latest market moves, dives into consumer inflation and the CPI, and highlights what investors should watch next. https://www.prcurtman.com/ FOLLOW TONY - https://x.com/tonycolombotalk 24/7 LIVESTREAM - http://bit.ly/NEWSTALKSTLSTREAMS RUMBLE - https://rumble.com/NewsTalkSTL See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of Money Matters, brought to you by Greenberg Financial Group, Dave, Todd, and Dylan run the show while the rest of the team is traveling, breaking down a rough week where the chip stocks led the market lower. We get into what Dave dubbed the "chip wreck," with the semiconductor group dipping into bear market territory for the month, and why we look at that kind of volatility as part of the territory when an entire industry is going through price discovery rather than a reason to abandon good companies. We talk through the names in the middle of it, from Micron and SanDisk to Taiwan Semi's blowout earnings and its plan to pour another $100 billion into Phoenix, and why we still believe the demand story for AI is only getting started. We also dig into some encouraging news on inflation, with both CPI and PPI posting their biggest monthly drops in years as lower oil worked its way through, even as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude back up sharply on the week. And we spend real time on the shift at the top of the market, with Apple retaking the largest company crown from Nvidia, and what that rotation is telling us. The back half of the show is all about planning, and the levers that actually matter in retirement. We walk through Roth conversions and the sweet spot in your early sixties, why QCDs are the underappreciated cousin of tax planning, how RMDs work and when to take them, and why owning individual bonds, treasuries, and fee-based annuities can serve the more conservative saver who wants off the rollercoaster. It all ties back to our fiduciary, fee-based, financial-planning-first approach, and the difference between being a true advisor and just a money manager. We are also thrilled to introduce the newest member of the Greenberg Financial team, Hailey Glick, who is helping us build out an in-house tax practice launching in 2027. It is the next step in Dean's vision of a true family office, everything you need under one roof, and we get into how bringing tax planning alongside investments, estate work, and financial planning lets us look at your whole picture over decades rather than one filing season at a time. If you have been thinking about taking us up on the free financial plan, this is exactly the kind of clarity it can bring. If you would like to contact us to learn more about our firm, our seminars, and our process - call us at 520.544.4909 or go to our website at www.Greenbergfinancial.com or email us at Contact@Greenbergfinancial.com Disclaimer: This show discusses different investment products and strategies. Every product and strategy has some type of inherent risk and we strongly encourage our listeners to properly understand these risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The information presented on this program is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. The material covered on this program does not involve the rendering of personalized investment advice, but is for general information purposes only. A professional advisor should be consulted before implementing any of the options presented. Greenberg Financial Group is registered as an investment advisor with the SEC and only transacts business in states where it is properly registered, or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements.
Warsh admitted monetary policy caused inflation. Bessent thinks silver certificates still redeem at Fort Knox. And import prices are up 7.1%.This is episode is sponsored by Function. Join at https://functionhealth.com/peter and use code PETER25 for a $25 credit.This episode is also sponsored by Pebl. Go to https://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox viewers that old silver and gold certificates can still be redeemed at Fort Knox. Gold certificates were repudiated in 1933 and silver certificates in 1968. Peter Schiff argues that if the man who signs the currency does not know basic monetary history, there is no reason to trust his assurance that the gold in Fort Knox is all there.Markets confirmed the AI bubble is deflating. SpaceX fell 13.25% on the week to close below $124, under its $135 IPO price, and anyone who bought the post-IPO high near $225 is down 45%. Only about 5% of the company trades today, but lockups expire through year end and take the float to roughly 40%, an eightfold increase in supply. Gold closed at $4,017 and silver at $55.83, which Schiff calls a head fake created by the false narrative that war is bad for gold.The honest inflation numbers tell a different story than the CPI: import prices are up 7.1% year over year and export prices are up 10.2%, against a reported 3.5%. Kevin Warsh admitted in Senate testimony that monetary policy caused the inflation, then offered a plan that amounts to talking about it while the Fed's balance sheet grew another $7.4 billion. Schiff also covers Trump selling paid early access to market-moving posts and explosive new FOIA emails showing Euro Pacific Bank was shut down for publicity, with the Australian Tax Office driving the operation to protect a journalist facing his defamation suit.Chapters:00:00 Trump Posts Paywall01:23 Market Week Wrap07:42 Gold Silver War09:52 Inflation Data Reality23:30 Warsh Hearing Grifts37:59 AI Jobs and Progress40:22 Trump Post and Fox Fallout44:05 FOIA Trail and Censorship Claims50:31 Nine Fraud Bank Shutdown Emails57:07 Operation Atlantis PR ExposedFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news#PeterSchiffShow #FortKnox #InflationOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
What Does This Week’s Market Volatility Mean for Your Retirement Portfolio? By Tom Dupree, Founder, Dupree Financial Group Inflation cooled. The big banks beat expectations. And somehow, it was still a wild week in the market. If you’ve been watching your account balance bounce around and wondering whether any of it has anything to do with the actual value of what you own, here’s the short answer: usually not. Most of what moved the market this week wasn’t new information about businesses — it was leverage, technical trading, and forced selling. That distinction matters more for your retirement than almost anything else you’ll read this month, because it tells you when to act and when to simply hold on. This week’s episode of The Tom Dupree Show walked through four separate stories — cooling inflation, strong bank earnings, a leveraged-ETF blowup on the other side of the world, and a regulatory fight over how often companies should report earnings — that all point to the same lesson: know what you own, know why the price is moving, and don’t confuse someone else’s forced selling with your own emergency. Key Takeaways Inflation cooled to 3.5% year-over-year in June, but the Fed’s new chair has questioned whether the 2% target is even the right one — the ground rules for bonds and rate-sensitive investments could shift. Bank profits this quarter came mostly from paying less on deposits, not from a borrowing boom — a reminder that cash flow, not headlines, tells the real story. A leveraged single-stock ETF collapse in South Korea forced hundreds of thousands of retail accounts into liquidation — a case study in what daily-compounding leverage does to a portfolio. Semiconductor stocks have swung hard on technical signals, not fundamentals — which can create real opportunity for patient, long-term owners. A federal proposal to let companies report earnings twice a year instead of four times has reignited a real debate about transparency versus short-termism. Why Does the Market Feel So Unpredictable Right Now? If you’re 55, 65, or 75 and watching a retirement account that’s supposed to fund the next 30 or 40 years of your life, a week like this one is unsettling. The headlines contradict each other: inflation is cooling, but chip stocks are getting hammered one day and ripping higher the next. Banks are thriving, but somewhere on the other side of the world, hundreds of thousands of retail investors just lost their entire trading accounts overnight. It’s a lot to hold at once, and it’s reasonable to wonder whether any of it should change what you do with your own money. Here’s the honest answer: for most retirees holding a diversified, income-producing portfolio, almost none of it should. But understanding why requires pulling apart what actually happened this week — and separating the noise from the signal. What Actually Happened This Week — The Data Start with the good news. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline inflation cooled to 3.5% year-over-year in June, with core inflation (which strips out food and energy) coming in at 2.6% — both below what economists expected, and producer prices actually declined for the month. That’s a meaningfully better inflation picture than markets were braced for. But the Fed’s target isn’t necessarily fixed anymore. Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Federal Reserve chairman this spring, has openly questioned the assumptions behind the central bank’s longstanding 2% inflation goal and launched a broader review of how the Fed operates. For retirees who own bonds or rate-sensitive income investments, that’s not a footnote — it’s a reason to pay attention to what “the target” even means over the next few years, rather than assuming the old rules still apply. Meanwhile, bank earnings came in strong — but not for the reason most people assume. The lift came primarily from banks paying less to fund themselves (short-term deposit rates have fallen faster than the loans on their books have repriced), not from a fresh wave of borrowing. It’s a good environment for financial stocks, but it’s a funding-cost story more than a booming-economy story, and that distinction matters if you’re trying to judge whether the rally has legs. Then there’s the semiconductor sector, which has been the market’s most volatile corner. Taiwan Semiconductor, the company that manufactures the vast majority of the world’s advanced AI chips, reported June revenue up nearly 68% year-over-year, a genuinely extraordinary number driven by AI infrastructure demand. And yet chip stocks broadly have been whipping up and down for reasons that have very little to do with numbers like that one. A lot of that action is technical: when a stock breaks below a widely watched moving average, institutional trading algorithms are programmed to sell, regardless of what the underlying business is doing. That selling then triggers more selling. It looks like panic. It’s often just mechanics. The starkest illustration of what leverage does in a downturn came out of South Korea this month, where a wave of new single-stock leveraged ETFs tied to semiconductor giants Samsung and SK Hynix triggered margin calls on more than 1.2 million retail trading accounts, with roughly 320,000 to 360,000 of those accounts fully liquidated in a matter of days. These products were designed to move twice the daily price swing of a single stock — which sounds appealing on the way up and is devastating on the way down, because the losses compound daily rather than tracking the stock’s actual return over time. It’s an ocean away from Lexington, Kentucky, but the lesson travels: leverage doesn’t just add risk, it changes the math entirely. Finally, there’s a quieter but genuinely important story developing in Washington. The SEC has proposed letting public companies choose to report earnings twice a year instead of four times, a change championed by President Trump and SEC Chairman Paul Atkins as a way to reduce short-term pressure on management teams. The idea splits reasonable people: less frequent reporting could free executives to run their businesses for the next several years instead of the next ninety days, but it could also mean investors — including retirees who depend on knowing exactly what they own — get less information, less often. This week’s news cycle also included a primetime presidential address in which Trump alleged that newly declassified intelligence showed foreign interference — including from China — in the 2020 election, along with claims of voter registration fraud in Michigan. Election security officials, including the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, have said they’ve found no evidence that any votes were altered in past elections. Whatever your read on the speech, it fed into a broader theme running through the whole hour: how much can you trust the numbers an institution hands you, whether that’s a vote count or a government inflation report? It’s why we do our own research instead of relying solely on government statistics or Wall Street’s sell-side analysts, and it’s the same instinct that should guide how you evaluate any claim, official or otherwise. The Reframe: Manufactured Volatility vs. Real Risk Here’s the framework we come back to on nearly every episode of the show, and it’s the one thing we want you to take from this week’s news: there is a real difference between manufactured volatility and real risk, and confusing the two is one of the most expensive mistakes a retiree can make. Manufactured volatility is what happens when a stock’s price swings because of leverage unwinding, algorithmic trading around technical levels, or funds racing to exit ahead of a quarterly number — not because the underlying business got worse. The Korean ETF collapse is manufactured volatility in its purest form: a Samsung or SK Hynix shareholder holding actual shares, with no leverage, watched the same news and the same earnings power, just without the forced-selling spiral. Real risk is different. Real risk is a company losing its competitive position, cutting its dividend, or piling on debt it can’t service. Real risk should change what you own. Manufactured volatility, more often than not, should not. The trouble is that from the outside, both look identical on a stock chart. A share price falling 10% doesn’t come labeled “manufactured” or “real.” Telling the difference requires actually knowing the business you own — its cash flow, its dividend history, its balance sheet — well enough to judge whether this week’s headline changed anything about that story. That’s the diligence part of the job, and there’s no shortcut around it. How Should Retirement Investors Respond to This Kind of Volatility? At Dupree Financial Group, this is exactly why our approach centers on dividend-paying stocks and bonds rather than chasing whatever sector is moving fastest. When you own a company for the income it generates — not for a price target — a week of manufactured volatility becomes far less threatening, and sometimes it becomes an opportunity. When institutions are forced to sell a good company for reasons that have nothing to do with its fundamentals, the price drop that scares one investor is simply a better entry point for another. That’s not a guarantee of a favorable outcome — all investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal — but it’s a fundamentally different posture than reacting to every headline. Seven Steps to Retirement-Proof Your Portfolio Against Manufactured Volatility Know what you own, line by line. Pull up your statement and be able to explain, in one sentence each, why you own every major holding. If you can’t, that’s the first thing to fix — not the market. Separate the headline from the business. Before reacting to a price move, ask whether anything actually changed about the company’s earnings, dividend, or balance sheet — or whether it’s a technical or leverage-driven move like the ones described above. Keep leveraged and single-stock ETFs out of retirement money entirely. These products are built for daily traders, not long-term holders. The Korean ETF collapse is a real-world example of what daily compounding leverage can do to an account in a matter of days. Read past the quarterly headline number. Whether or not the reporting-frequency rules change, judge a company on multi-year cash flow and dividend trends, not a single quarter’s beat or miss. Keep a watchlist of quality companies for when panic creates a discount. When forced selling knocks a good business down for reasons unrelated to its fundamentals, that’s the moment long-term investors get paid for their patience. Revisit your income plan, not just your account balance. A retirement portfolio’s job is to produce cash flow you can live on for 30 to 40 years. Judge a volatile week by whether your income stream held up — not by the number on the login screen. Get a second set of eyes on your portfolio. If you’re not sure whether what you own is built to withstand this kind of volatility, or whether you’re carrying more leverage or concentration risk than you realize, that’s exactly what a portfolio review is for. Frequently Asked Questions Is a leveraged ETF a good way to boost my retirement returns? No. Leveraged ETFs reset and compound daily, so their long-term return can diverge sharply from the underlying stock’s actual performance — including large losses even when the stock has technically risen over time. They’re built for short-term traders, not retirement accounts. Does cooling inflation mean the Fed will cut interest rates soon? Not necessarily. While June’s cooler CPI reading supports the case for rate cuts, the Fed’s new chairman has signaled openness to rethinking the central bank’s approach to its inflation target, adding real uncertainty to the timeline for any rate decisions. Why do stock prices swing so much when a company’s earnings didn’t change? Much of the day-to-day movement in popular stocks comes from technical trading, algorithmic strategies tied to chart levels, and leveraged funds being forced to buy or sell — not from new information about the business itself. That’s manufactured volatility, not real risk. What does the debate over quarterly earnings reports mean for individual investors? If the SEC’s proposal is adopted, some companies may report financial results only twice a year instead of four times. That could reduce short-term pressure on management, but it may also mean investors get less frequent, less detailed information about what they actually own. How do I know if my retirement portfolio is built to handle volatility? Start by confirming you can explain why you own every major holding and that none of your retirement money sits in leveraged or single-stock products. A complimentary portfolio review with a fee-only fiduciary advisor is the fastest way to get an honest, unbiased answer. The Bottom Line Weeks like this one will keep happening. Leverage will keep building up somewhere and unwinding somewhere else. Traders will keep reacting to chart levels instead of cash flow. What won’t change is the difference between a business that’s actually worth less than it was last week and a stock price that simply got caught in someone else’s forced selling. Learn to tell those two things apart, build your income around companies you understand, and a volatile week stops being a threat to your retirement — it starts being background noise, or even opportunity. Schedule a Complimentary Portfolio Review If you’re not sure whether your portfolio is built to take advantage of volatility like we saw this week — instead of getting knocked around by it — we’ll take a look. No charge. No pressure. Just an honest conversation about what you own and whether it’s working for you. Call: 859-233-0400 | Visit: dupreefinancial.com You Might Also Like Catch up on past episodes of The Tom Dupree Show — our full podcast archive, updated every week. Meet the team at Dupree Financial Group — learn about our fee-only, fiduciary approach and the people behind it. [PLACEHOLDER — link to a prior show notes/blog post on dividend investing fundamentals once a confirmed URL is available] About the Author: Tom Dupree is the founder of Dupree Financial Group and host of The Tom Dupree Show, heard weekly across Central Kentucky radio and podcast. With 47 years in the investment business, starting in municipal bonds in 1978, Tom built DFG’s investment philosophy around one idea: retirement money should generate income you can see, not just a balance you hope holds up. Dupree Financial Group is an independent, fee-only fiduciary Registered Investment Advisor based in Lexington, Kentucky. REGULATORY DISCLAIMER: This material is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, or tax advice, nor is it a solicitation to buy or sell any security. All investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance of any market index or security is not indicative of future results. Dupree Financial Group is a fee-only fiduciary and does not receive commissions on any products or securities discussed. 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This week, we examine the latest inflation, consumer, and housing data, along with the sharp increase in stock margin borrowing. While both CPI and PPI came in below expectations, much of the decline was concentrated in energy prices. Given the recent rise in oil prices, those subdued inflation readings may prove temporary. Retail sales growth also slowed in the latest month, reflecting lower gasoline prices and broader weakness in energy related spending. Housing data continued to point to a cooling market. Even housing starts, which exceeded expectations at the headline level, revealed underlying softness upon closer examination. Finally, we discuss the historic surge in stock margin borrowing during April and May and consider how the rapid buildup in leverage may be contributing to the recent sell off in semiconductor stocks.
This week on Henssler Money Talks, we're cutting through the noise to focus on the financial issues that could have the biggest impact on your decisions.We begin with a look at the latest market headlines—from CPI data and the start of earnings season to Federal Reserve testimony on inflation and uncertain progress in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire.Then we answer a listener's question many homeowners are asking: If you've locked in a 3% mortgage, should you stay put or move anyway? Sometimes the best financial decision isn't the right decision for your lifestyle. We'll also revisit some of the financial advice that has become accepted as fact and discuss how changing markets, interest rates, and modern lifestyles have challenged some of the guidance investors have heard for decades.Finally, we'll examine why Ponzi schemes continue to fool investors, the warning signs to watch for, and practical steps you can take to help avoid becoming a victim.Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty. Henssler Money Talks July 18, 2026 | Season 40, Episode 29Timestamps and Chapters4:43: What's Moving the Markets?14:29: Is Now the Wrong Time to Move?25:06: Does Yesterday's Financial Advice Still Work Today?39:42: When an Investment Is Too Good to Be TrueFollow Henssler: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Center for Financial Planning, Inc. owns and licenses the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States to Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc., which authorizes individuals who successfully complete the organization's initial and ongoing certification requirements to use the certification marks.See important disclosures at Henssler.com
The stock market is moving fast, AI stocks are swinging hard, inflation data is shifting, and the gap between Wall Street and Main Street is getting wider. In this video, I'm breaking down the S&P 500, CPI inflation, tech stocks, the Magnificent 7, semiconductor volatility, the K-shaped economy, AI investment, and why staying in the market may be one of the only ways everyday people can fight back financially.AI Stocks Are Volatile—But The Real Money Is MovingJoin our Exclusive Patreon!!! Creating Financial Empowerment for those who've never had it.
Group Chat News is back with the hottest stories of the week. The guys wrap the World Cup and get into the stories everyone's talking about — Kai Cenat's Streamer University getting a million applications, the betting markets that now let you wager on everything from flight delays to presidential speeches, Delta stripping down business class, and the sinkhole that swallowed one of LA's busiest streets. This week's Group Chat covers: World Cup wrap — Spain vs Argentina, corporate ticket takeovers, and why game times were a miss A 100-year-old water main breaks and opens a sinkhole on Sunset Blvd, shutting down the heart of West Hollywood Fanatics Fest takes over NYC — the $90 million spend and the new all-in-one sports app projected to do $14 billion Why American sports franchises are the new safe asset class — "I'd rather own a football team than US Treasuries" The collectibles boom, GameStop's bid for eBay, and cards as the new art market Betting on everything — Polymarket, flight delay markets, and the Trump teleprompter scandal The Bryce Harper, FanDuel and Cameo controversy explained Delta launches Basic Business — business class up to $1,000 cheaper, but no lounge, no food, no perks IShowSpeed becomes the face of the World Cup and the biggest content creator on Earth Kai Cenat's Streamer University — one million applications, 120 spots, and why kids want it more than Harvard Inflation finally cools — CPI and PPI come down, and Marc Andreessen joins the new Fed task force The Ozempic economy — grocery sales fall, snacking declines, and the lightening of America And much more! Drop us a 5-star rating and a review if you're rocking with the show.
The financial health of the American consumer is top of mind these days, and no one better to discuss it with than Emmaline Aliff of Equifax and our own consumer maven, Mike Brisson, join the podcast to dig into the evidence. While the consumer sector as a whole remains resilient, the story differs dramatically across the thrivers, the strivers, and the survivors. We also unpack a week full of inflation data with Matt Colyar, who helps us sort through the numbers and their implications for the economic outlook. Guest: Emmaline Aliff, Advisory Leader, Equifax Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
RenMac breaks down the vicious unwind in the momentum trade, why a low headline VIX is masking the highest single-stock dispersion the team has ever measured, and how a cooler CPI print does little to stop the Fed conversation from tilting toward a September hike, with inflation, not growth, now owning the reaction function. The team also discusses rising Strait of Hormuz tensions and elevated oil, a looming 25% Brazil tariff, Korea's AI-driven rate hike, yen intervention risk, and the Washington theater around Fed leadership and congressional stock-trading rules.
This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest CPI and PPI reports and explains why cooler inflation headlines do not necessarily mean interest rate cuts are back on the table. Learn why falling energy prices are distorting the data, what businesses should actually be watching, and how inflation is affecting consumers differently across the economy. If you're trying to make pricing, budgeting, or investment decisions, looking only at the headline numbers could lead you in the wrong direction. Lauren explains what matters most and what to watch next as the Fed weighs its next move. Will one month of encouraging inflation data change the Fed's outlook, or is the bigger picture telling a different story?
We discuss USD take-aways from the soft CPI print countered by Fed hawkishness, main take-aways from our suite of systematic models and key drivers/ views in EM with focus on Latam and EMEA. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy Anezka Christovova, Head of EMEA EM Local Markets Strategy This podcast was recorded on 17 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5369697-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.
What happens when wholesale distributors realize “CRM” is no longer the real conversation, growth, data, AI, and sales enablement are?In Episode 198 of Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Kevin Brown and Tom Burton unpack the shift they saw firsthand at the Affiliated Distributors Functional Success Summit: distributors are moving beyond traditional CRM adoption questions and toward connected data systems, AI-enabled sales strategy, and future-proofing distribution. The episode connects macroeconomic uncertainty, supply chain risk, AI governance, human judgment, and enterprise growth strategy to the real decisions facing wholesale distribution teams today.What You'll Learn:Why distributors are moving past traditional CRM conversations and focusing instead on how to help sales teams create more value, become more consultative, and grow revenueHow CRM-ERP integration, data warehouses, e-commerce platforms, marketing automation, and disconnected point solutions can limit customer visibility unless they are unified into a true enterprise growth platformWhy inflation measurement, interest rate uncertainty, and prediction markets matter to revenue leaders in distribution making investment and growth decisionsHow Strait of Hormuz disruption, Suez Canal risk, oil volatility, plastics, fertilizers, helium, and global logistics instability can ripple through manufacturing and wholesale distributionWhy AI still needs human judgment, oversight, and strategy, and why many companies miss expected ROI when they assume full automation instead of building a realistic digital transformation planEpisode Highlights:01:16 – Lessons from the Affiliated Distributors Functional Success Summit and why sales enablement is replacing traditional CRM talk03:55 – Why disconnected data across ERP, marketing automation, e-commerce, and point software creates risk for distributors06:37 – Episode 198 begins: how Around the Horn connects the economy, supply chain, M&A, sales, marketing, AI, and robotics to wholesale distribution08:30 – LeadSmart's Meridian 360 Enterprise Growth Platform and the move from Smart CRM to broader business growth engines12:32 – Inflation cooling, gas prices, and why energy volatility still affects distributors, manufacturers, fertilizers, heavy minerals, and supply chains15:23 – Kevin Warsh, Fed measurement reviews, CPI, PPI, the 2% inflation target, and the need for more real-time data20:25 – Prediction markets, PolyMarket, Kalshi, and whether betting markets can offer useful economic signals27:17 – Strait of Hormuz risk, Iran, shipping disruption, oil exposure, the Suez Canal, Houthi rebels, and what it means for global supply chains43:02 – AI watchdogs, model testing, DeepMind, Fable, Mythos, and the role of government QA for high-powered AI systems48:38 – Human judgment in the age of AI, digital twins, job displacement fears, and why AI ROI depends on data readiness and realistic automation expectations56:00 – APR Supply's sales tool adoption gains and how better sales technology can support outside sales revenue growthTools, Frameworks, and Strategies Mentioned:LeadSmart TechnologiesMeridian 360 Enterprise Growth PlatformSales CompassSmart CRMSales Co-PilotAI Co-Pilot for SalesCRM-ERP IntegrationCRM Data Enrichment with AIHidden Revenue DetectionSales Automation Without Losing the Human TouchFuture-Proofing DistributionHybrid Selling ModelsConsultative CommerceData warehouses and data lakesMarketing automationE-commerce data integrationERP data unificationAI-enabled business intelligencePrediction marketsPolyMarketKalshiCPI and PPI measurement reviewsAI model QA and AI watchdog conceptsHuman judgment in AI strategyAPR Supply sales tool adoptionMaster of Distribution Management programClosing Insight:The episode's central message is clear: the future of distribution is not about buying more disconnected technology. It is about connecting data, people, process, and AI into a strategy that helps teams sell smarter, serve customers better, and make better decisions under uncertainty.Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.
Mortgage rates, inflation data, and Federal Reserve rate expectations all came together this week. Consumer inflation (CPI) and producer inflation (PPI) both came in negative, yet markets are still pricing in a possible Fed rate hike — Dan breaks down why the numbers and the Fed's next move don't seem to line up, what's coming next week before the Fed meeting, how oil prices tie into mortgage rates, and why he thinks rates could test their lows again soon.00:00 Intro: Why the Fed hike talk doesn't add up 01:35 This week's inflation and jobs data 03:45 What's coming next week before the Fed meets 05:45 Fed rate hike odds and closing outlook
META's stock surged last week, but investors shouldn't ignore the risks. Meta shares climbed last week as Wall Street became increasingly optimistic about the company's AI strategy. The stock was up about15% for the week and erased the year-to-date losses. Investors are betting that Meta's enormous spending on AI infrastructure, custom chips, top engineering talent, and next-generation models will lead to faster revenue growth, stronger advertising tools, and new revenue streams over the next several years. The market clearly believes Meta has positioned itself as one of the leaders in the AI race. But while investors were celebrating, Europe reminded everyone that even great companies face meaningful risks. The European Commission announced preliminary findings that Facebook and Instagram may violate the Digital Services Act because of what regulators call "addictive design" features, including infinite scrolling, autoplay videos, and recommendation algorithms that encourage users to stay engaged for longer periods. If the findings become final and Meta does not make sufficient changes, the company could face fines of up to 6% of its global annual revenue, along with potential changes to how its platforms operate across Europe. Meta has disputed the findings and says it has already implemented significant protections for younger users. This could amount to a fine of around $12 B, but the bigger problem I see is a potential hit to ad revenue if they must change their business practices. Europe is an important part of their business considering it accounts for about 23% of overall company sales. We also can't forget the legal liability Meta is facing in the United States, which could ultimately total as much as $1.4 trillion. That number may sound shocking, but it stems from multiple lawsuits brought by numerous states and plaintiffs. The first major cases are scheduled to go to trial in August, with California, Colorado, New Jersey, and Kentucky leading the way. The lawsuits allege deceptive business practices, and potential penalties range from $2,000 to $20,000 per violation. Given Meta's massive user base, those fines could accumulate rapidly if the courts rule against the company. Beyond civil penalties, the states are also seeking disgorgement of profits, which would require Meta to surrender profits earned from the alleged misconduct during the relevant period. If Meta performs poorly in these initial cases, another 25 states have similar lawsuits waiting in the wings, significantly increasing the company's legal exposure. There are already signs that these legal challenges carry real financial risk. New Mexico recently won a $375 million judgment against Meta, and a separate federal trial is scheduled to begin early next year. The AI opportunity is also far from guaranteed. Today, investors are rewarding companies that appear to be winning the AI race, but the competitive landscape is becoming more crowded every quarter. OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft, xAI, and others are investing billions of dollars to develop better models and attract developers. Meta has responded aggressively by spending heavily on infrastructure and recruiting top AI researchers, but there is no guarantee those investments will generate returns that justify the enormous capital being deployed. A big problem is today's leader in AI can quickly become tomorrow's follower if innovation slows. I also believe that all of these companies will not succeed in this space, which will mean enormous amounts of wasted capital for the losers. Wall Street seemed to be focused almost entirely on Meta's AI upside last week, and that optimism may continue to drive the stock higher. But investors should remember that valuation is increasingly dependent on AI execution while regulatory scrutiny remains elevated. If AI spending fails to produce the expected returns or regulators force changes that weaken engagement, today's bullish narrative could change quickly. Meta remains one of the strongest companies in technology, but even great businesses are not risk-free. As investors, it's important to weigh both the opportunities and the risks, not just the headlines driving the stock higher today. The spring home sales season disappointed in June The spring home-selling season ended on a disappointing note. Through May, existing home sales had been showing signs of improvement, and many real estate professionals were becoming more optimistic about the housing market. However, June's data told a different story. The conflict involving Iran contributed to higher inflation expectations and pushed mortgage rates higher, weighing on buyer demand. Existing home sales fell 2.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million homes, well below economists' expectations for a 0.7% increase. Despite the monthly decline, the longer-term trend remains somewhat more encouraging. Existing home sales were still up 2.8% compared with a year ago, suggesting that underlying demand has not disappeared. There continues to be pent-up demand from prospective buyers, but many seem unwilling to make such a large financial commitment while borrowing costs remain elevated, even as housing inventory continues to improve According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.43% last week. If mortgage rates remain near these levels, many prospective homebuyers may continue to delay their purchases, preventing a stronger recovery in the housing market. Another Hidden Cost of AI: Steel Most people know that the AI buildout has driven up demand for advanced computer chips, contributing to higher prices for smartphones, laptops, and other electronics. They also know that AI data centers require enormous amounts of electricity, putting upward pressure on utility rates as more power is diverted to support AI infrastructure. But there's another cost that receives far less attention: steel. Steel is a critical component of every data center. Industry estimates suggest that new data centers will consume roughly 1 million tons of steel annually, representing approximately $1.4 billion in demand. Steel is used throughout these facilities from the structural columns, roof joists, and roof decking to the server racks that house thousands of AI processors. This growing demand has ripple effects throughout the economy. Higher steel demand can contribute to increased costs for automobiles, household appliances, commercial buildings, bridges, and countless other products that rely on steel. The impact doesn't stop there. Steel production is one of the most energy-intensive manufacturing processes. A single electric furnace steel mill can consume anywhere from around 50 to 200 megawatts of electricity per day, competing for the same power resources as AI data centers. As both industries demand more electricity, utilities face increasing pressure to expand generating capacity. Ultimately, who pays for that increased demand? The answer is often the consumer. Higher electricity demand can translate into higher utility bills for households and businesses as utilities invest in additional generation and transmission infrastructure. In regions where electricity supply is already tight, the competition for power is becoming even more apparent. For example, PJM Interconnection, the nation's largest regional transmission organization, plans to begin conducting supplemental power auctions with electricity generators in September to help secure additional supply. Auctions reward the highest bidders, meaning electricity increasingly flows to those willing to pay the most. As large industrial users and AI data centers bid aggressively for power, consumers could face higher electricity prices if supply fails to keep pace with demand. AI will likely bring enormous productivity gains and economic benefits over the long run. However, it is also creating secondary inflationary pressures that extend well beyond semiconductors. Steel, electricity, construction materials, and other critical inputs are all experiencing increased demand, and those costs eventually work their way through the economy. As the AI revolution accelerates, these indirect costs are likely to become an increasingly important part of the inflation story. Inflation Is Cooling... But Don't Pop the Champagne Yet The latest CPI report was another encouraging sign that inflation is moving in the right direction. Headline CPI declined 0.4% in June, marking the largest monthly drop since 2020, while the annual inflation rate slowed to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, was flat on the month and eased to 2.6% year over year. Much of the improvement was driven by a sharp decline in gasoline and broader energy prices. While this is welcome news, I'd caution against declaring victory over inflation. One of the biggest challenges with inflation is that it doesn't always show up in the headline numbers immediately. It often works its way through the economy in waves, especially when it comes to energy. A good example is my own pool service. My pool guy recently raised his prices, likely for two reasons: higher chemical costs and the increased cost of driving from house to house. Those are both directly tied to energy markets. Even if gasoline prices temporarily fall and help bring down CPI for a month, businesses often adjust prices more slowly because they have to account for prior cost increases and the uncertainty of where energy prices are headed next. That's why I think investors should remain cautious. The recent improvement in inflation was helped significantly by lower oil and gasoline prices following a temporary easing in geopolitical tensions. But with conflict in the Middle East once again threatening energy supplies and oil prices recently moving higher, that relief could prove short-lived. The trend is encouraging, and the Federal Reserve will certainly welcome softer inflation data. But as long as energy prices remain vulnerable to geopolitical events, inflation is likely to remain unpredictable. Businesses from manufacturers to small local service providers will likely continue to pass along higher input costs whenever they have to. One softer CPI report is good news. But sustained price stability will likely require a concrete outcome in the Middle East and more stability in the energy market. While again we welcome the positive news in this CPI report, the conversation around in inflation and what to do with interest rates will continue with the ongoing developments in Iran. Higher Gas Prices Aren't Stopping the American Consumer If you were looking for evidence that higher gas prices are slowing down the American consumer, the latest retail sales report doesn't provide much support. The headline number was relatively modest, with retail and food services sales increasing 0.2% from May. But the year-over-year numbers tell a much stronger story. Total retail and food services sales were up 6.7% from June of last year. Even if you exclude gas stations, which saw an increase of 19.8%, retail sales still grew at an impressive rate of 5.7%. More importantly, when you look across the major spending categories, not a single major category declined year over year. Furniture and home furnishing stores was the only major category that was flat compared to last year, but again it wasn't negative! Some of the strongest performers included non-store retailers, which primarily includes online shopping, increased 14.2%. Electronics and appliance stores were up 8.6%, while clothing and clothing accessories increased by 4.8%. Building materials and garden equipment stores were up 3.5% One of the more interesting data points is that Americans are still spending money at restaurants and bars. Food services and drinking places were up 3.8% year over year, showing that consumers continue to spend on experiences and dining out despite higher costs and concerns about the economy. The big takeaway is that the consumer remains remarkably resilient. Yes, higher gas prices can eventually put pressure on household budgets. But so far, consumers have continued to spend across virtually every major category. The year-over-year numbers show broad-based growth, not just spending concentrated in one or two areas. The consumer may be under pressure, but they are clearly not out of the game yet. Financial Planning: What's Next for Social Security The Social Security Trustees' most recent solvency report highlights the need for Congress to address the program's long-term funding shortfall. Under current projections, the retirement trust fund is expected to be depleted in 2032, at which point ongoing payroll tax revenue would be sufficient to pay only about 78% of scheduled benefits unless legislative changes are made. Importantly, this does not mean Social Security will become insolvent or stop paying benefits, it means benefits would be reduced if Congress takes no action. While no specific legislation has emerged, many policy experts expect Congress to adopt a combination of gradual reforms rather than a single sweeping change. Potential solutions include increasing the Social Security payroll tax rate from 6.2%, raising or eliminating the taxable wage cap from $184,500, increasing the full retirement age from 67 for younger workers, and slowing future benefit growth for higher-income retirees. Historically, when Congress has made changes to Social Security, it has phased them in over many years, and most proposals would leave current retirees and those approaching retirement largely unaffected. As a result, individuals already receiving benefits or those within roughly the next decade of retirement are generally expected to experience little or no change, with the majority of reforms likely to apply to younger generations who have more time to prepare. Companies Discussed: Nike, Inc. (Ticker: NKE)
Yesterday's inflation report delivered a surprise. Headline prices fell sharply, but the important story was beneath the headline. This was not a gasoline story. Core inflation was unchanged for the month, and several categories that have kept inflation stubbornly high moved lower. For investors, that distinction matters because it changes the conversation around interest rates today.The new report is the Consumer Price Index, not the Personal Consumption Expenditures index that the Federal Reserve prefers. The PCE report still showed elevated inflation. But the CPI components give us a preview of where price pressure may be heading. Core CPI came in flat, compared with expectations for an increase. Core goods declined. Medical services, transportation services, used vehicles, and automobile insurance showed softness. Those are signs of broader disinflation, not merely cheaper oil.------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1) iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613) Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com) LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce) YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso) Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com) **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com) Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital) Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)
Bitcoin News and Notes, Space X, Markets, CPI &PPI reports and more.
We are excited to share this Special Edition featuring Senator Alan Armstrong (R-OK). Senator Armstrong, alongside Senators Rick Scott (R-FL), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Katie Britt (R-AL), and James Lankford (R-OK), recently introduced the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act. The legislation seeks to modernize the federal permitting process for energy and mineral infrastructure projects while preserving strong environmental protections. We were delighted to host Senator Armstrong to discuss his experience in Washington, the motivation behind the legislation, and what it could mean for the future of U.S. infrastructure development. In our conversation, Senator Armstrong discusses his transition from leading Williams Companies to serving in the U.S. Senate and explains why permitting reform has become one of the country's most pressing economic and national security priorities. He walks us through the American Energy and Mineral Infrastructure Act, outlining how the legislation seeks to streamline federal permitting, reduce unnecessary litigation, provide greater regulatory certainty for project developers, and create a more predictable process for building critical infrastructure. We explore how permitting delays increase costs for consumers, discourage private investment, and threaten America's economic and technological competitiveness as electricity demand accelerates alongside AI and data center growth. Longer term, it's not an overstatement to say failing to address these issues will also threaten the country's national security. Senator Armstrong shares his perspective on building bipartisan support for permitting reform, maintaining an energy source-neutral approach, and ensuring that pipelines, transmission lines, nuclear facilities, and other critical infrastructure can be built in a more timely and predictable manner. We touch on the growing importance of grid reliability, the intersection of permitting reform and national security, and why he believes the current Congress has a unique opportunity to address these long-standing challenges before rising power demand and infrastructure constraints become even more acute. The discussion was especially timely as the push is on to get permitting reform done during this Congress. The Senator emphasized, “Who in the world would oppose this? We're going to be asking that question exactly on the floor tomorrow as we're starting to put pressure on moving this bill forward.” We greatly appreciate Senator Armstrong for joining us and for his leadership on this important issue. To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted key market developments, noting that favorable inflation data has supported markets this week. Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI reports released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down to roughly 4.55% and reduced near-term pressure on the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude oil prices appeared to have temporarily stabilized at approximately $85/bbl and $80/bbl, respectively, despite President Trump's escalation of military strikes against Iran. On the equity front, the S&P 500 was up about 0.25% on the day, supported by the favorable PPI report. Telecom was the top-performing sector, gaining roughly 2.5% to 3.0%, led by Google, following reports that Berkshire Hathaway had taken a large position in the stock. He concluded by highlighting the significant value creation achieved during Alan Armstrong's tenure as CEO of Williams Companies. Veriten Senior Advisor Bill Flores also joined the discussion, offering valuable perspective on the legislative process and the dynamics in Washington.
If you've been enjoying The Independent Advisors podcast for a while now and want to take the next step in your financial journey, I'd encourage you to head to our website, jessupwealthmanagement.com (https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.com/) . Matt offers a 15-minute initial call where you can discuss your financial goals and see if JWM is a good fit for your needs. Scheduling is easy—once you land at jessupwealthmanagement.com (https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.com/) just click “Schedule Initial Call” and select a time that works best for you! There's a quick survey to fill out that will help guide the conversation and ensure your time is used efficiently. If you're ready to learn more, visit jessupwealthmanagement.com (https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.com/) and book your call today! Take advantage of our partnership with LifeLock and get discounts using our link: https://lifelock.norton.com/offers?expid=LLONEYEAR&promocode= JSPW24&VENDORID= _JESSUPWM&om_ext_cid=ext_partner_ JSPW24_Productpage $) #359 Topics: Market Performance & Macro Trends — indices, CPI report, Fed rate expectations (01:09) Equity Market Dynamics & Earnings Outlook — 2026 earnings growth, tech insider buying, semiconductor cash flow (15:18) Diversification & Asset Allocation Insights — Magnificent Seven underperformance, rotation opportunities (05:40) Long-Term Investment Themes & Market Narratives — dot-com comparison, tech volatility, AI infrastructure (08:46) Financial Planning: Trump Accounts Update — new kids' savings vehicle, eligibility, setup (27:29)Hosts: Mark McEvily - Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner Matthew Jessup – Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer, and Managing Partner Address: 35 Park Ave. Dayton, OH 45419 Phone: 937-938-9105 https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.com/ Social Media: Facebook: @JessupWealthManagement LinkedIn: @JessupWealthManagement Twitter: @jessupwealth Instagram: @jessupwealth https://www.jessupwealthmanagement.com/disclosures-page
Wall Street has just posted one of its strongest quarters in history.The world's biggest banks delivered record profits as trading desks, investment banking and wealth management all fired at the same time. But with Jamie Dimon warning that conditions are "nearly as good as it gets", is this a peak or just the beginning of an even bigger cycle?In this episode, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down what drove the blockbuster earnings from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citi, why AI has become the biggest force behind investment banking, trading and capital markets, and whether today's record profits could be borrowing growth from tomorrow.They also analyse June's US inflation report, why the biggest monthly decline in CPI since 2020 isn't quite as straightforward as the headlines suggest, and what it means for Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.Finally, they revisit the biggest IPO of the year. After surging in its first few days of trading, why has SpaceX fallen back to its IPO price? From index fund buying and green shoe options to lock-up periods and insider selling, they explain the market mechanics that most investors never hear about.If you want to better understand what's driving global markets and how professionals think about the biggest financial stories each week, this episode is for you.(00:00) Wall Street's Record Quarter(02:55) Why Banks Made So Much Money(10:15) Morgan Stanley's Hidden Winner(15:24) Is This As Good As It Gets?(19:00) AI's $1 Trillion Spending Boom(25:14) US Inflation Cools(31:14) Why SpaceX Is Falling(35:10) Green Shoe Options Explained(38:36) SpaceX Lock-Up Risks(42:16) One IPO, Every Bank Wins
Calamos Investments' Matt Kaufman discusses why inflation remains a concern despite cooler CPI and PPI data and how structured income ETFs like CAIE can help investors generate income with downside protection. He also highlights CAIQ and CAG as strategies designed for different investor needs and risk profiles.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
With markets back in rotation mode, OptionsPlay's Tony Zhang says he's watching how that rotation plays into a climb of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with CPI and PPI pointing to an inflation downtrend. He says hyperscalers need to show earnings growth to restore long-term investor confidence in tech. Tony highlights one of those hyperscalers: Amazon (AMZN), which he likes due to its recent outperformance. He sees a similar trend in Alibaba (BABA) but warns his bullishness here is more speculative. Tony offers example options trades for Amazon and Alibaba. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax
The latest CRE Exchange covers a packed week of data and market. Cole Perry and Omar Eltorai work through the June CPI print, consumer credit pullback, and existing home sales data before digging into the WSJ economist survey and Fed meeting minutes, where the most notable detail is a credit market splitting between large and small borrowers. The episode closes with early Q2 bank earnings from the four largest US banks, including reserve releases on office CRE loans at Bank of America and Wells Fargo that suggest the office credit cycle may be turning, and lender scrutiny around data center financing may be growing.Key moments01:50 Inflation hedge data03:13 Patriotic owners trivia06:57 Consumer credit update08:56 Housing and CPI prints12:31 WSJ Economist Survey22:59 Fed minutes breakdown29:34 Big bank earnings takeaways36:23 New segment: CRE Bag O' Random!42:38 Upcoming Calendar and WrapResources mentionedConsumer Credit — G.19 (May 2026) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/default.htmExisting Home Sales — June 2026 - https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-4-decrease-in-juneConsumer Price Index — June 2026 - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htmWSJ Economist Survey — July 2026 - https://www.wsj.com/articles/economic-forecasting-survey-archive-11617814998FOMC Meeting Minutes — June 16–17, 2026 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htmMassachusetts YIGBY Bill — H.5562 - https://malegislature.gov/Bills/194/H5562
Alex Thorn talks with Lucas Tcheyan (Galaxy Research) about compute, AI, and GPU financial markets. Alex also talks with Beimnet Abebe (Galaxy Trading) about CPI, rates, equities, and bitcoin. Participants, along with Galaxy Digital, hold a financial interest in Bitcoin (BTC). Galaxy regularly engages in buying and selling BTC, including hedging transactions, for its own proprietary accounts and on behalf of its counterparties. Galaxy also provides services to vehicles that invest in BTC. If the value of such assets increases, those vehicles may benefit, and Galaxy's service fees may increase accordingly. The valuation in this communication is based on technical, fundamental, and market analysis and not on any formal valuation method. For more information, please refer to Galaxy's public filings and statements. Cryptocurrencies, including BTC, are inherently volatile and risky and ultimate market movements may not align with this statement. For additional risks related to digital assets, please refer to the risk factors contained in filings Galaxy Digital Inc. makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) from time to time, including its Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q, available at www.sec.gov. This episode was recorded on Wednesday, July 15, 2026. ++ Follow us on Twitter, @glxyresearch, and read our research at www.galaxy.com/research/ to learn more! This podcast, and the information contained herein, has been provided to you by Galaxy Digital Holdings LP and its affiliates (“Galaxy Digital”) solely for informational purposes. View the full disclaimer at www.galaxy.com/disclaimer-galaxy-brains-podcast/
On Tuesday's Mark Levin Show, the infiltration of America by Islamists and jihadis is really in full force, and no one seems to be doing anything about it. Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed's father-in-law, Jukaku Tayeb, is a top donor to his super PAC and a longtime leader on ISNA's founding committee and CAIR Michigan president—both groups are co-conspirators in the Holy Land Foundation terror-financing trial that funneled millions to Hamas, tied to the Muslim Brotherhood mothership responsible for groups like Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Hamas, and funded by Qatar and Turkey. Why do Democrats tolerate these ties? Later, Jack Smith is a loathsome rogue prosecutor who abused his office by covertly reading text messages from 44 lawmakers and Trump administration officials between October 2020 and December 2021. This contradicted Smith's sworn congressional testimony in December denying he accessed such message contents. Republican Senators need to pursue criminal charges and a DOJ Public Integrity investigation with evidence of the false testimony. Also, consumer prices fell sharply in June, with the CPI dropping 0.4% from May—the largest decline since 2020—thanks to relief at the gas pump and broad disinflation, far exceeding economists' forecast. This strong report is attributed to Trump administration fiscal policy rather than the Fed. While media coverage is muted despite the economy's top voter priority, costs are steady or declining nationally, though high prices persist in Democrat-led blue states due to their high taxes and policies. Afterward, Lindsey Graham was a remarkable statesman, principled leader, and humanitarian who stood out among senators for his character, humor, and unwavering defense of U.S. allies and oppressed peoples. Graham was no warmonger. He supported Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Persian people against tyrants and aggressors. He will be deeply missed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThis episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.Chapters:00:00 AI Spending Arms Race01:08 Markets Brace for CPI06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage11:40 What Inflation Really Means14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame17:58 Fed Headcount Shock22:32 Two Percent Target Myth27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability33:40 Day One Recap Continues34:09 Grow My X Account35:13 Congress Inflation Theater36:06 Trump Grift Claims37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet41:08 Who Wins Low Rates43:46 Fed And Black Workers49:09 AI Bubble Warning51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign OffFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #AIBubbleOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:If you want my help...STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20showSCALING a business: see if you qualify here.: https://tombilyeu.com/callGet my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.:https://tombilyeu.com/**********************************************************************If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you.**********************************************************************FOLLOW TOM:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=enTwitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeuYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeuStraight Arrow News: Go to san.com/tombilyeu to get the unbiased truth on the stories that matter, only on the Straight Arrow app. Let's exit the echo chamber.Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodWhatnot: Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order.ATT Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.comShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactIncogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Quo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impactPaleovalley: 30 for $36 https://bit.ly/PaleovalleyITNetsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/TheoryWelcome to The Tom Bilyeu Show Live. In today's episode, Tom, Drew, and Ryan break down a packed news cycle starting with the biggest CPI inflation drop since Covid and why it may signal a deep economic sickness rather than a recovery. Tom walks through the mechanism behind the drop, the collapse in labor force participation, and what China's refusal to buy oil despite falling prices reveals about a hidden downturn tied to its $18 trillion housing crisis. The conversation connects the global energy picture directly to the Iran war, where Trump has now formally notified Congress that the US is at war, restarting a 60-day clock and shifting toward a doctrine of disproportionate response. The team explores how a softening economy could hand Trump a political win heading into the midterms, and what China's distraction could mean for Taiwan.From there the episode moves into election integrity and immigration, including a Senate seat filled without an election, the bundling of voter ID with a US-Israel military bill, and a heated three-way debate on incentive structures, ballot harvesting, and the populist moment. The crew digs into ICE temporarily suspending most vehicle stops after multiple fatal shootings, including the death of a Colombian man with a work permit who wasn't the target, and what humane, rule-of-law policing should actually look like. The group then has an extended debate on fully AI-generated political ads, network TV, satire, and whether the answer is regulation or a technological trust system. Finally, Japan reclassifies crypto as a financial instrument, banning insider trading and opening the door to spot crypto ETFs, alongside quick hits on Circle's national trust charter, an AI companion from the makers of Genshin Impact, a SpaceX-founded manufacturing startup, and an Indian company breaking China's grip on rare earth magnets.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
#889: Welcome Ray and Kyle! Today, the guys break down a flurry of bank earnings yesterday, including a record-setting quarter from JPMorgan. Next up, what Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said about inflation in congress and what the latest CPI data says. Then, New York temporarily bans data centers and the most expensive dinosaur fossil ever sold. Finally the headlines you need to know heading into hump day. Get 10% off using MORNINGBREW10 at https://altrarunning.com/morningbrew Get tickets for our trivia tournament! https://caveat.nyc/events/the-morning-brew-trivia-tournament-2026-07-30 Grab tickets to our Performance Revue show! https://www.morningbrew.com/events/brew-performance-revue-2026?utm_campaign=performance_revue_2026&utm_source=mbd Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
June CPI data just delivered the biggest monthly drop since 2020, signaling that aggressive Federal Reserve interest rate hikes may be permanently off the table. With inflation cooling down due to retracting energy prices, the stock market is showing heavy resilience despite lingering geopolitical tensions and an ongoing affordability crisis across the United States.We also dive into the exploding space economy with our long-term bullish outlook on SpaceX stock following recent pullbacks, alongside the rising risks in private credit defaults. Finally, we cover upcoming legislative catalysts for the crypto market, real-world asset tokenization, and the crucial difference between a surging stock market and everyday economic realities.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDJune CPI inflation data and energy price impactsSpaceX stock outlook and private space sector growthRising private credit defaults and high-yield debt risksUpcoming Q2 corporate earnings from major financial banksThe massive disconnect between stock market highs and everyday affordabilityNew cryptocurrency legislation and real-world asset tokenizationThe economic impact of AI data center capital expendituresKEY TAKEAWAYSThe economy is not the stock market. You can have a highly profitable stock market while everyday consumers face severe affordability crunches in housing, food, and energy.Cooling inflation and dropping CPI numbers are currently heavily tied to lower oil prices, removing the immediate threat of Federal Reserve rate hikes.Record highs in private credit defaults signal that investors should be cautious of chasing high-yield debt without proper collateral and structuring.SpaceX represents a massive long-term opportunity as it consolidates capital and innovates in global satellite internet, robotics, and aerospace.Building long-term wealth requires consistent, disciplined investing—even an automated $350 a month can compound into significant capital over time.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONImagos Income Fund: Text "INCOME" or "DEALS" to 844-447-1555 to learn more about Matty A's private debt fund targeting 10% fixed returns paid out monthly.
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM's sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
0:30 - John Anthony filling in for Dan Proft 13:13 - We will not let communism prevail 32:07 - Executive Director of the Illinois Gun Dealers Trade Association, Todd Vandermyde, weighs in on the appeals court upholding of Illinois’ ban on assault weapons 51:17 - Senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute Ryan Young explains why economists missed the mark on the latest CPI report and what the stronger-than-expected results mean for Americans. Follow Ryan on X @RegoftheDay 01:06:41 - Illinois State Rep. for the 52nd District, Martin McLaughlin, goes through his bill to keep the Bears in Illinois and says “I will do whatever it takes” to get it through. Follow Rep McLaughlin on X @MartyForIL 01:24:36 - Retired Riverside Police Chief Thomas Weitzel argues ShotSpotter isn't a crime prevention tool—it's a rapid-response tool that helps officers reach shooting scenes faster. Follow Tom on X @ChiefWeitzel 01:38:53 - Senior Fellow at the Strauss Center Simone Ledeen questions continued negotiations with Iran: “They've shown us repeatedly we can't believe what they're saying, so what are we negotiating?” Follow Simone on X @SimoneLedeen 01:56:34 - Matt Kittle, senior elections correspondent for The Federalist on the SAVE Act: “The problem we’re having is John Thune is the John Roberts of the senate” See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week we had the exciting opportunity to travel to Lake Forest, California, to tour TAE Technologies' facilities and spend time with the company's CEO, Dr. Michl Binderbauer. Founded in 1998, TAE has spent nearly three decades pursuing one of the energy industry's most ambitious goals: commercializing a safe, sustainable, and economically viable source of fusion energy. With renewed momentum in the fusion industry, we thought it was the perfect time to visit TAE and better understand why many believe fusion's moment may finally be approaching. Our visit also marks the beginning of a California COBT series, where over the coming weeks, we'll highlight some of the state's innovative companies, technologies, and leaders. We will also touch on a challenge or two the state is facing. Stay tuned! In our discussion, Michl explains why he believes fusion has reached a true inflection point after nearly three decades of scientific and engineering progress. He outlines why TAE was founded with the “end in mind,” deliberately choosing the more technically challenging hydrogen-boron fuel cycle because it offered the best path to a commercially viable power plant rather than simply proving the science. We explore how advances in AI, machine learning, advanced computing, and materials science have accelerated development, why TAE believes commercial fusion is now measured in years rather than decades, and how the company is preparing to build its first demonstration power plant. We discuss TAE's innovative approach to commercializing technologies developed along the way, including its advanced power management platform that is finding applications in AI data centers, industrial facilities, and grid modernization. Michl shares his vision for fusion's role in delivering abundant, reliable energy to meet the world's rapidly growing electricity demand, the importance of recent U.S. regulatory reforms, the race with China to commercialize fusion, workforce and supply chain challenges, and why he believes fusion has become not only an energy opportunity, but also an economic and national security imperative. We look at what the next five years could look like for TAE, why hyperscalers, industrial customers, and the Department of War may become some of fusion's earliest adopters before widespread utility deployment, the company's long-term vision for a more distributed electric grid, and much more. It was a fascinating and wide-ranging discussion, and we greatly appreciate Michl for sharing his time and insights. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets have been volatile this week. He highlighted that the cooler-than-expected CPI report sparked a rally in Treasuries, driving the 10-year yield down from roughly 4.65% to 4.55%, and said Wednesday's PPI report will be another important data point for the Fed. U.S. equities also moved higher, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 0.5% on the back of the CPI report and strong bank earnings, while the Dow lagged following a sharp selloff in IBM shares after disappointing quarterly results. In commodities, Brent and WTI crude prices climbed roughly $8-$9/bbl this week following the collapse of the Iran-U.S. ceasefire and renewed disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. He emphasized that today's challenge is less a global crude supply issue than a global refining problem, citing tight refined product inventories and the loss of roughly 1.5 million bpd of Russian refining capacity following Ukrainian attacks. He also highlighted that European natural gas prices have surged from approximately $16/MMBtu to $19/MMBtu as storage levels remain 20%-25% below seasonal norms and buyers compete for LNG cargoes. Mike noted that Energy is the best-performing S&P 500 sector this week, up approximately 3%, as investors turn their attention to second-quarter oilfield services earnings. He also highlighted the newly announced strategic alliance between SLB and Liberty Energy focused on data center infrastructure and power solutions, noting that similar partnerships are likely to become increasingly common across the energy sector.
If you followed the headlines, you know that the June CPI report was even cooler than expected. This generated optimism that maybe, just maybe, the Fed is finally getting inflation under control. But there's more to the story. In this episode of the Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey tells you the rest of the story, revealing that despite falling CPI, inflation is alive and well. On top of that, the good CPI news may green-light even more inflation. Mike also points out a very interesting trend in the gold market. Gold is up during Asian trading sessions through the first half of the year, even as the yellow metal sold off during North American sessions. What is this telling us?
Signal vs Noise: Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis debate whether June's cooler-than-expected 3.5% CPI print is signal or noise, break down oil's surge on Middle East tensions, unpack the ultra-wealthy land-maxing trend reshaping Palm Beach real estate, react to New York's first-in-the-nation data center moratorium, and dig into Strategy's new Bitcoin Bank Adoption Index, where Fidelity leads at 71% and RBC trails at just 13%.---
HELP US IMPROVE THE PODCAST - TAKE THIS 3 MIN SURVEY:https://forms.gle/fRTV2YiJqncKVpFh7WEBINAR LINK:https://shawnmoore.clickfunnels.com/optiniyvvg89sWant to learn more about Vodyssey or start your STR journey. Book a call here:https://meetings.hubspot.com/vodysseystrategysession/booknow?utm_source=vodysseycom&uuid=80fb7859-b8f4-40d1-a31d-15a5caa687b7FOLLOW US:https://www.instagram.com/vodysseyshawnmoorehttps://www.facebook.com/vodysseyshawnmoore/https://www.linkedin.com/company/str-financial-freedomhttps://www.tiktok.com/@vodysseyshawnmooreCONTACT US:support@vodyssey.comChapters00:00:00 Intro00:02:34 Impact of CPI reports and energy costs on construction00:04:21 Airbnb's investment in New York City and market strategy00:07:31 Timing and planning for property launch and tax benefits00:12:45 Current home prices, sales, and market dynamics00:22:06 Construction costs, tariffs, and renovation budgets00:33:35 Slower supply growth and its effect on rental pricing00:42:21 Growth of the global leisure economy and consumer trends
Today's episode begins with market reaction to the lowest CPI inflation report in years. Plus, Robbie interviews JPMorgan Chase's Olivia Barrow Strauss on today's housing policy landscape, examining why the U.S. continues to under build homes, how smart policy can expand supply and lower costs, and what the passage of the ROAD to Housing Act could mean for the future of housing affordability. And we close with what prices are doing at the wholesale level.Thanks to Zillow Home Loans, Zillow's in-house mortgage lender, for sponsoring this week's podcasts. By integrating Zillow's real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys. With tools built for modern lending, Zillow Home Loan's loan officers can focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Zillow Home Loans is an equal housing lender. NMLS #10287.The Chrisman Commentary is your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.
With the main surge of bank earnings over, investors face Morgan Stanley today along with chip infrastructure firm ASML. PPI follows a light CPI and Warsh continues testimony. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The {securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. For illustrative purpose(s) only. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please seeschwab.com/indexdefinitions. The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Digital currencies [such as bitcoin] are highly volatile and not backed by any central bank or government. Digital currencies lack many of the regulations and consumer protections that legal-tender currencies and regulated securities have. Due to the high level of risk, investors should view digital currencies as a purely speculative instrument. Cryptocurrency-related products carry a substantial level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Investments in cryptocurrencies are relatively new, highly speculative, and may be subject to extreme price volatility, illiquidity, and increased risk of loss, including your entire investment in the fund. Spot markets on which cryptocurrencies trade are relatively new and largely unregulated, and therefore, may be more exposed to fraud and security breaches than established, regulated exchanges for other financial assets or instruments. Some cryptocurrency-related products use futures contracts to attempt to duplicate the performance of an investment in cryptocurrency, which may result in unpredictable pricing, higher transaction costs, and performance that fails to track the price of the reference cryptocurrency as intended. Please read more about risks of trading cryptocurrency futures here. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research. The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC. Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB. (0131-0726) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
John Carney from Breitbart joins Grace to discuss the newest CPI numbers. Then, the Daily Wire's Jennie Taer joins the show to discuss her exclusive story on ICE and provide an update on the investigation into the shooting that happened yesterday in Biddeford, Maine. Visit the Howie Carr Radio Network website to access columns, podcasts, and other exclusive content. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Brian Szytel recaps a mixed but positive market day with the Dow up about 45 points, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up just under 1%, helped by a broad financial-sector rally despite somewhat mixed large-bank earnings. Oil rose with increased Middle East tensions and volatility around the Strait of Hormuz. The main story was a better-than-expected CPI report: headline CPI fell 0.4% versus expectations for -0.1%, and core CPI was essentially flat (-0.02%) versus a forecast of +0.2%, bringing year-over-year core to 2.6% and pushing the 10-year yield down about 3 bps to 4.58%, with Fed futures repricing to lower odds of hikes. He notes one print isn't a trend, highlights a stronger NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, and explains why deflation is worse than modest inflation, citing Japan's long period of minimal growth. 00:00 Market Wrap and Earnings 00:45 Oil Jitters Middle East 01:01 CPI Surprise and Rates 02:39 Fed Talk and Futures 04:12 Small Business Optimism 04:26 Inflation Versus Deflation 05:35 Japanification Case Study 06:34 Wrap Up and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Plus: Treasury yields fall after latest CPI report. And chip stocks Miron, Marvell and Intel bounce back. Imani Moise hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Keith Weinhold explains why inflation has become a permanent part of the post–World War II economy and what that shift means for today's financial system. He breaks down economist Dr. Mark Skousen's five structural reasons behind never-ending inflation and ties them to the hollowing out of the middle class and the "last generation to live normally" concept. Keith then introduces opportunity cost as the biggest financial expense most people overlook and illustrates how leveraging low-cost, long-term debt to buy productive real assets can turn inflation into an advantage. He closes by outlining a practical hierarchy for which debts to eliminate first and which to keep as tools for long-term wealth building. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/614 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text FAMILY to 66866 Unlock truly passive real estate income—visit flockhomes.com/GRE today to see if your properties qualify for a 721 exchange with Flock Homes. To get in the best physical, mental, and professional shape of your life, go to DanielThomasHind.com and apply for Daniel's intensive 1-on-1 coaching for burnt-out entrepreneurs and executives. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold 0:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. In less than 40 years, America has gone from 75% gasoline to permanent inflation. Then learn about the biggest financial expense you will ever have in your life. It's not taxes, housing, interest charges, inflation, children, or healthcare. Most people have never heard of it today on Get Rich Education. You know, Mid South Homebuyers, that top Memphis turnkey provider. I learned that a secret weapon behind their explosive growth is more than just you buying their properties. It's an executive coach. For nine years now. Their CEO Terry Kerr and his COO Pat Nix have worked privately with a coach who I've now learned from too, and he doesn't market himself online anywhere. After 12 years behind the scenes, that coach is now making himself available exclusively for GRE listeners. His name is Daniel Thomas Hind. If you're a hard-charging business owner or investor who wants to get in the best shape of your life, physically, mentally, and professionally, you can fill out an application for a free consult. This is private one-on-one coaching for those willing to go to uncommon lengths to achieve uncommon results. Thanks to Daniel, we've all become better leaders, better operators, and better men. It started by showing up for ourselves. Now it's your turn. Go to DanielThomashHind.com. H-I-N-D. That's DanielThomashHind.com, and sign up before spots fill. Keith Weinhold 1:41 What if you got your mortgage loans the same place I get mine? You sure can at Ridge Lending Group NMLS 42056 They provided GRE listeners with more loans than anyone because Ridge specializes in investment property. They'll help you build a long-term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequal and even chat directly with President Chaley Ridge. While it's on your mind, start at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com. Speaker 1 2:14 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world, this is Get Rich Education. Keith Weinhold 2:31 Welcome to GRE from Bavaria, Germany, to Batavia, New York, and across 188 world nations. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education. In the 19 the 1988 movie Die Hard, there's a California gas station sign in the background that's visible. You can see it there. The gas price on this sign is a jaw dropper. Unleaded 77.9 cents per gallon, regular 70-4.9 cents per gallon. That now looks like it belongs in a museum next to rotary phones and blockbuster video cards. Yes, California gas for 75 cents, and the movie Die Hard. It had all these actors from yesteryear, like Bruce Willis and Reginald Vel Johnson. Yet you, depending on your age, you might remember 1988. It's not like ancient history. Now we all know that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, like Milton Friedman said, but is there more to this? Is there more than the Fed targeting 2% inflation, just like it says on their website? Oh, there sure is. And by the way, with a little research, it looks like California Gas averaged 95 cents in 1988, not 75 like it shows in Die Hard, but in any case, the point is still there. And today, inflation keeps running hot. Four years ago, the pandemic made CPI inflation peak at 9.1 percent. Today, the hangover effects of tariffs push it up, and the Iran war are turning up the heat even more, with the latest reading above 4% Inflation is running at more than double what the Fed wants. You can even make the case now that inflation is out of control. But here's the thing: inflation has exceeded that 2% target for 60-three consecutive months now. I mean, think about what that means. My gosh, just imagine having an important target that affects every American and missing it 60-three times in a row. That's kind of what's happening now, and they're. Going to keep missing it. So this streak of inflation above 2% started back in March of 2021 during the pandemic hangover, and it is still going strong after 63 months. Nobody knows where this is going to end. Most Americans get crushed by rising prices because their wages don't keep up, and you know collectively they sort of think we are concerned, but then they mostly keep doing the same thing while their lifestyle quietly shrinks. So consumers despise inflation. Everyday investors are lukewarm about inflation, and leverage real estate investors are smiling like they found a 20-dollar bill in last winter's coat. Leverage real estate investors are pretty ecstatic about inflation. Now the history gets super interesting. Keith Weinhold 5:59 Okay, how did we get into this, where we just always seem to have inflation? So learn the history, and then I'll tie it back to how it affects you as an investor. Because before World War II, inflation behaved differently. The old pre-1945 pattern was that we had inflation during wars and booms. We had deflation after panics and depressions. So therefore, the result was that over long stretches, price levels often just moved sideways. We used to have recessions more often back 80 plus years ago than we do now. So therefore, you just had these price levels move sideways because a recession even prompted deflation, actually a strengthening of purchasing power. But then after World War II, inflation basically went permanently positive. I mean, yeah, permanently positive, where inflation is just always turned on with very few exceptions to that. In wartime, now we have inflation. In peacetime, now we have inflation. During the Super Bowl, now we have inflation. It is inflation, no matter what is going on. Right then, so what changed? Prominent economist and GRE podcast guest here, Dr. Mark Skousen. He has cited five major reasons that inflation became a permanent fixture from 1945 until today. And Mark Skousen was here on the show with us almost exactly two years ago because he's also the founder of a great event called Freedom Fest that Nareesh and I broadcast a show from, the five reasons that Scowson cites for never-ending inflation are first, never-ending wars. Now this doesn't only mean formally declared boots on the ground wars where tanks are rolling, never-ending wars. It means this permanent state of global military readiness that we have today, where we have overseas bases, defense contractors, right with the military-industrial complex. We have NATO commitments. Keith Weinhold 8:17 We have anti-terror operations, naval patrols, intelligence agencies, and all this enormous machinery that's required to keep America as the world's security backstop. Well, all that costs an awful lot of money, and when government wants more money than it collects, it has a favorite trick: just create more dollars and create them out of nothing. I mean, it's like ordering another round of drinks for the table and then putting it on the unborn grandchildren's tab. The second reason for the never-ending inflation is the 1913 creation of the Federal Reserve and how that's changed over time because the Fed they were originally supposed to defend the dollar, defend the gold standard, and act as lender of last resort. Today it mostly just does the last one. It acts as the lender of last resort, and it's really not even last resort. I mean, she shit seems to patch any significant hole in the economy by creating more dollars and then pumping them into the system. When markets wobble, banks panic, or politicians overspend, or the economy catches any kind of cold, you know, the Fed often just shows up with this fire hose of liquidity. Now, sometimes that's necessary, but either way, it means more currency creation. So, the Fed it began as this sort of sober hallway monitor, but now they're often the responsible party that needs monitoring. But no. No one is going to stand up and do it because no one in power wants austerity under their watch because that is extremely unpopular. The third reason for permanent inflation is the Bretton Woods Agreement. You've probably heard of this, but let me summarize what it briefly means. Okay, Bretton Woods was the 1944 deal that basically created the post-World War II global monetary system? It made the U.S. dollar the world's reserve currency. If you remember anything from Bretton Woods, just remember that it did that. It made the U.S. dollar the world's reserve currency, and the dollar was pegged to gold at $35 per ounce. Keith Weinhold 13:29 And finally, the fifth reason for never-ending inflation post World War II is Keynesian economics. I mean, you probably at least heard the term before. It's been thrown around here from time to time. Named after John Maynard Keynes, K E Y N E S. And before I go on, I invested in real estate for a long time before I learned all this stuff. Probably close to a decade of investing first. So I taught myself this material, Keynesian economics. That's the belief that demand is what drives economic output and employment. So, if you only remember one thing about Keynesian economics, it's that you need demand, and it stokes demand. It says demand drives everything, and what I mean by that is the spending, spending from households, corporations, and government. So, in plain English, when private demand weakens, the government should step in and spend. That's what Keynesian economics says. Well, that means deficits, borrowing, stimulus, support, programs, relief, rescue packages, emergency measures, and see what happens is that temporary measures somehow become permanent measures wearing a fake mustache. Remember, even Nixon said removal from the gold standard is temporary. Well, that was now 50. 55 years ago, in theory, the government runs deficits in bad times and then tightens up in good times. But that doesn't really happen because, in practice, government often runs deficits in bad times and good times, war times, peace times, election years, non-election years, leap years, all the time running deficits, spending more than we take in, and when deficits become normal, well, then currency creation has got to follow. That's the consequence. Well, these five forces that I told you about for never-ending inflation, the reasons that I just shared with you-they are now structurally embedded. They are not going away. Keith Weinhold 19:03 I mean, there is even political resistance to deflation in this system. Investors benefit the most when they own one thing: real assets tied to long-term debt. You probably knew that I was going to say that because if the dollar is designed to slowly melt. You don't want to be the one holding the ice cube. You want to own the freezer. That's the control that you have. The first half of the year recently ended. It's time for our asset class rundown. From the midpoint of last year to the midpoint of this year, single-family home values are up only about one and a half percent. That's the average of Case-Shiller and FHFA. Apartment building values are down 1% in the past year. When it comes to rents per Zillow, single-family home rents are up 2.8% in the past year to an all-time record of almost 20-$300 Apartment rents are up just. 1.3% nationally. Sunbelt Apartments were the weak spot. Apartments.com said the South was down seven tenths of 1% year over year, and the mountain region down one and a half percent. With San Antonio, Denver, Austin, and Phoenix among the weaker markets, that's due to oversupply in those areas. 30-year mortgage rates down from 6.8 to 6.6% The S S&P 500 up 21 percent on AI optimism, despite a war in Iran. Though down in past months for the year, gold is still up 21 percent, silver soared 63 percent, Bitcoin down 45 percent. I mean, speculative digital assets have really gotten a cold shoulder. Oil up 4% although it went on a wild ride, and CPI inflation reheated to 4.2% That's our asset class rundown. Speaker 2 22:59 This is our rich dad poor dad author Robert Kiyosaki. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream. Keith Weinhold 23:17 Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. I want you to listen to something along with me, and then I'll come back to comment. This is from the parallel truth. It's called the last generation to live normally, and it's less than two minutes in length. Speaker 2 23:32 We have to talk about something that sounds dramatic, but it is becoming true. Your parents may have been the last generation to live a normal life-not an easy life, not a perfect life, but a life where the basic deal still made sense. You could get a stable job, you could buy a house, you could raise children, you could save some money, you could retire one day. And even if life was hard, most people still believed that if they worked honestly, their future would slowly get better. But look at what happened to your generation. You work more, but own less. You study more, but feel less secure. You have more technology than any generation in history, but less peace, less time, and less confidence about the future. Your parents were told, "Work hard, and you will build a life. But you are being told that, "Work hard, and maybe you can afford rent. And the most disturbing part is that this did not happen overnight. It happened slowly. First, housing became an investment instead of a basic need. Then, education became a debt trap. Then, healthcare became too expensive. Then, stable jobs disappeared. Then, everything became a subscription: your house, your car, your software, your entertainment, even your future. Everything slowly became something you rent but never truly own. And while ordinary people were falling behind, the economy kept looking strong on paper. The stock market went up, billionaires got richer, companies made record profits. Politicians kept saying that everything was fine, but if everything is fine, why does an entire generation feel like it is drowning? The truth is, your parents did not live through normal history. They lived through a rare window where ordinary people. People were allowed to share in the wealth of the system, but that window is now closing. The old promise was simple: work hard, buy a home, raise a family, retire with dignity. The new promise is different: work forever, rent everything, delay children, carry debt, and call it freedom. So maybe young people are not lazy. Maybe they are just the first generation honest enough to admit that the old deal is dead. Your parents were not lucky because life was easy. They were lucky because they were the last ones who got the deal before it was taken away. Keith Weinhold 25:27 Yeah, there it is-the last generation to live normally. That's really a fresh slant on the hollowing out of the middle class. The rules have changed. Inflation is entrenched. Now you know why. Back in 2020, the pandemic accelerated that effect, and yet it's just unbelievable to me that people think working hard and saving money is enough to get you the lifestyle that you desire. Now I am not against hard work, it's the fact that people think that that's all that it takes. Before we hit the permanent inflation era, it might have made sense for you to say, save your money, pay all cash for a cheap fixer-upper property, and work hard for years to fix it up yourself. Oh, and then you could own a modest home debt-free. Today, even if you could do that, why would you? Instead, you can just prudently finance your way through life. You could have instead borrowed for two or three already renovated properties and let debt, inflation, and perhaps even tenants do the work for you. Above all, do the right thing before you do things right. That's what I like to say. Well, the way you get wealthy is by owning a lot of assets, not by grinding in the salt mines to pay off your debt. Those that are debt free are often asset poor. The biggest financial expense that you will ever have in your life. Do you know what it is? It is not taxes or interest charges. It's not even inflation or housing or healthcare or having children, most people have never heard of it. You probably have, but most people have never heard of this biggest financial expense you'll ever have, and they certainly don't know how to avoid it. Keith Weinhold 27:34 Say that you're 35 years old and you put 100k under a mattress for 30 years until you're 60- years old. Instead, if that would have been invested at a 12% annual return, do you know how much that would have grown to? That would have grown to $2.996 million All right, basically 3 million bucks, a 30x increase. Therefore, it would be a 2.9 million dollar mistake to save money, and what this means is that the biggest expense you'll ever pay in your life is called opportunity cost. Yeah, opportunity cost is life's biggest expense. It's the return that was foregone when you chose one option over another. So opportunity cost is not what you spend; it's what your money could have become had you put it somewhere more productive. All right, now that was a pretty extreme example of 100k under a mattress. As a listener to this show, you are probably more savvy than a person that would save big lumps of money for close to zero return. Let me give you a better example of how when you pay all cash for something, you've usually just made your future self poorer. A friend of mine heard the episode last year where I talked about buying a new car for myself, a BMW X3 SUV. As it is, you probably remember that episode. Though I could have paid all cash for the car, I put the minimum down payment in there and then financed as much as I could because of a favorable 4% interest rate that I got on a car loan. Well, my friend Jesse heard that episode. This influenced him. So what he did is he bought a Subaru for his wife. Although he had planned to pay all cash and could have paid all cash for the car, Jesse got financing, and he did better than me. He got just a 1% interest rate somehow. Wow! It was actually nine tenths of 1% but let's just call it 1% What a deal! Instead of paying all cash for the car, he held on to that chunk of money. Instead of tying it up in a depreciating asset, he is financing it all. Now I don't. How much the Subaru costs, but let's just say it was 50k to keep the numbers simple. Well, look, if Jesse feels like he can get a 10% return over time by investing his money instead of sinking it into a car, how much does he profit by borrowing? Of course, he has the advantage of keeping his funds more liquid as well, but how much does he actually profit from this arrangement? Keith Weinhold 30:24 Well, the math is so easy that you can even visualize it in an audio format here. Now it depends on the loan term, but the simple spread is a 10% investment return minus a 1% car loan cost. That is a 9% positive spread on 50k. That's roughly $4,500 per year in benefit. That's before any taxes, risk, or fees. $4,500 a year just for doing some loan paperwork. Like if you wonder whether the loan paperwork is worth it or not, that's what we're talking about here, and that's 375 bucks a month. So if you're wondering if it's even worth it taking the time to get a car loan when you could pay all cash, it probably is. All right, now that's the upside. What about the risk that's associated with taking a loan instead of paying all cash, well, the caveat here is that the 1% loan is guaranteed, but the 10% return is probably not, and that risk gap does matter. If you're financially fragile and you can't make the payment with another pot of money, well, then you risk default. That is over leverage risk. That's the worst case scenario. All right, what's the flip side? The flip side is that you could earn a return even better than 10% As we know, with real estate pays five ways on investment property. If you earn a 20% return, now you're making $9,500 a year on the spread, not $4,500, but a 10% return. That is the base case. So again, by paying all cash instead of getting the loan, your future self would be poorer by $4,500 a year. And now, my friend Jesse, that learned this from me, he's actually a CFA, a chartered financial analyst, a sophisticated money guy. But he had simply been overlooking this. And said another way, what you're doing here is that over time, your investment is paying you more than your interest is costing you, and in my life, I have been doing exactly this sort of thing all over the place for decades. An interesting thing that I hear about this, although it makes me scratch my head, I've heard a few people say this. It's just like, oh well, I don't want to have to deal with a car payment? I just rather be done with it and move on. What is there to deal with? Just set up auto pay with preserving funds for say a 10% return. You're then going to see more dollars flowing into your account than you will out of it. I mean that part can just be automated. Keith Weinhold 33:19 My life and finances are set up this way. In fact, when I get a loan for a rental property, I have had mortgage loan officers that are looking at my finances. They tell me that I have more stuff flowing into and out of my checking account than they've ever seen anyone have. I'm I'm financing and arbitraging my way through life passively. This is thanks in part to inflation. I am not paying very much at all in that biggest financial expense that we all have in our lives-not taxes or children or housing, but opportunity cost. I am avoiding paying that. This is the world that we live in today, a lot of times debt reduction is horrible advice. Debt free that can keep people from falling over a cliff, but it stalls any wealth creation. Now the debts that usually make the most sense to pay down they're the ones with high interest, variable rates, no tax benefit, and no productive asset attached. And here is the priority order that I use for paying down debt or paying off debt. First, it is credit cards. Pay down these first almost every time. I mean, a 20% or even 30% credit card rate. This is like financial quicksand. You don't need a sophisticated investment thesis when you can get a guaranteed 20-4% quote-unquote return by eliminating this debt. The next place I would pay down are payday loans, personal. Loans and consumer finance debt. I mean, these are usually bad debts because they're at a high rate, have a short amortization, and they're usually tied to consumption instead of an income-producing asset. Pay these aggressively too, and then next in priority is paying variable rate debt that could reset higher. This isn't quite as important to address. Keith Weinhold 35:24 We're talking about things like HELOCs, adjustable rate loans, margin debt, and some business lines of credit. Some of those can become dangerous when rates rise, even if the rate's tolerable today. The uncertainty can be a bit of a problem. Now, when it comes to should you pay down student loans, consider that. low fixed-rate student loans that might not be urgent. It sure wasn't for me. High-rate private student loans that could be different. That could get more of your attention. You also got to weigh things like tax benefits. Look out for forgiveness programs when it comes to student loans, those haven't been quite as available lately under this administration. Also, look at employer repayment benefits before you rush to pay down student loans, and then really the last one: low fixed-rate mortgage debt. Pay that last if you ever do. In fact, it is quite possible that I will always keep this debt type around that low fixed rate mortgage debt. So really, my rule of thumb here is to kill toxic debt. Be careful with unstable debt, and don't rush to pay off cheap fixed productive debt if you ever pay it off at all. You and I covered a lot of ground today, starting with 75 cent gasoline in California, all the way to the biggest expense you'll ever pay throughout your life, being something that most people have never heard of: opportunity cost. Coming up on the show here, a lot of good episodes, including a great guest and I are going to discuss a new way to invest in residential real estate that we haven't discussed before, and it will massively boost your cash flow. If you found today's show valuable, whether it was the history of why we have permanent inflation or the idea of passively financing your way to wealth, rather than only working harder. I would be grateful if you share this episode with a friend. Just tap the share button in Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and send it to someone who would benefit from hearing it. Or take a screenshot of this episode and post it on social media. It helps more people find the show, and it gives you and your friends something smart to talk about with each other. Until next week, I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream. Speaker 1 37:53 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal, or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold 38:21 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building at getricheducation.com.
Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Liz Thomas discuss recent “momentum on, momentum off” volatility, with semiconductors swinging and earnings season starting with banks that have traded well despite a flattening yield curve. They debate rising long-term Treasury yields, arguing hikes aren't appropriate in a slowing economy and tying yield pressure to Middle East conflict, oil inflation fears, and U.S. fiscal indiscipline, with the bond market challenging the Fed's 2% target under new Chair Kevin Warsh. They touch on private equity weakness versus tight credit spreads, whether credit cycles still exist amid repeated policy “saves,” and upcoming CPI (3.8% expected) and PPI (6.2% expected). They flag Japan's weakening yen and stressed bond market as an underappreciated risk, review gold's move as central-bank and retail flows shift, and outline a second-half view: stocks higher but volatile, with opportunities in Mag Seven, financials, healthcare, commodities, and energy. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.