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Dec 18, 2025 – Are record-high markets masking an affordability crisis in America's real economy? Join renowned strategist Michael Green, well-known author of the popular Yes, I Give a Fig newsletter as he reveals why the disconnect between...

Our Head of Corporate Research Andrew Sheets and Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Lisa Shalett unpack what's fueling persistent U.S. inflation and how investors could adjust their portfolios to this new landscape.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Lisa Shalett: And I'm Lisa Shalett, Chief Investment Officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Andrew Sheets: Today, is inflation really transitory or are we entering a new era where higher prices are the norm? Andrew Sheets: It's Thursday, December 18th at 4pm in London. Lisa Shalett: And it's 11am in New York. Andrew Sheets: Lisa, it's great to talk to you again. And, you know, we're having this conversation in the aftermath of, kind of, an unusual dynamic in markets when it comes to inflation. Because inflation is still hovering around 3 percent. That's well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. And yet the Federal Reserve recently lowered interest rates again. Fiscal policy remains very stimulative, and I think there's this real question around whether inflation will moderate? Or whether we're going to see inflation be higher for longer. And you know, you are out with a new report touching on some of the issues behind this and why this might be a structural shift higher in inflation. So, we'd love to get your thoughts on that, and we'll drill down into the various drivers as this conversation goes on. Lisa Shalett: Thanks Andrew. And look, I think as we take a step back, and the reason we're calling this a regime change is because we see factors for inflation coming from both the demand side and the supply side. For example, on the demand side, the role of the infrastructure boom, the GenAI infrastructure boom, has become global. It has caused material appreciation of many commodities in 2025. We're seeing it obviously in some of the dynamics around precious metals. But we're also seeing it in industrial metals. Things like copper, things like nickel. We're also seeing demand factors that may stem from the K-shaped economy. And the K-shaped economy, as we know, is really about this idea that the wealthiest folks are increasingly dominating consumption. And they are getting wealthy through financial asset inflation. On the supply side, there are dynamics like immigration, dynamics around the housing market that we can talk about. But perhaps the wrapper around all of it is how policy is shifting – because increasingly policymakers are being constrained by very high levels of debt and deficits. And determining how to fund those debts and deficits actually removes some of the degrees of freedom that central bankers may have when it comes to actually using interest rates to constrain demand. Andrew Sheets: Well, Lisa, this is such a great point because we're financial analysts. We're not political analysts. But it seems safe to say that voters really don't like inflation. But they also don't like some of the policies that would traditionally be assigned to fight inflation – be they higher interest rates or tighter fiscal policy. And even some of the more recent political shifts that we've seen – I'm talking about the U.S. around, say, immigration policy could arguably be further tightening of that supply side of the economy – measures designed to raise wages, almost explicitly in their policy goals. So how do you see that dynamic? And, again, kind of where does that leave, you think, policy going forward? Lisa Shalett: Yeah. I think the very short answer – our best guess is that policy becomes constrained. So, on the monetary side, we're already seeing the Fed beginning to signal that perhaps they're going to rely on other tools in the toolkit. And what are those tools in the toolkit? Well, they're managing the size of their balance sheet, managing the duration or the mix of things that they hold in the balance sheet. And it's actual, you know, returns to how they think about reserve management in the banking system. All of those things, all of those constraints may enable the U.S. government to fund debts, right? By buying the Treasury bill issuance, which is, you know, swollen to almost [$]2 trillion a year in terms of U.S. deficits. But on the fiscal side, right, the interest payments on debt, begins to crowd out other government spending. So, policy itself in this era of fiscal dominance becomes constrained – both in, you know, Washington, D.C. and from Congress – what they can do, their degrees of freedom – and what the central bank can do to actually control inflation. Andrew Sheets: Another area that you touch on in your report is energy and technology, which are obviously related with this large boom that we're seeing – and continue to expect in AI data center construction. This is a lot of spending on the technology. This is a lot of power needed to power that technology and U.S. data center electricity demand is growing at a rapid rate. And transmission constraints are causing prices to go up. A price that is a pretty visible price for a lot of people when they get their utility bill. So, how do these factors you think shape the story? And where do you think they're going to go as we look into the future? Lisa Shalett: Yeah, 100 percent. I mean, I think, you know, when we talk about, you know, who's going to dominate in Generative AI globally, one of the factors that we have to take into consideration is what is the cost of power? What is the cost of electricity? What is the age of the infrastructure to both generate that electricity and transport it? And transmit it? This is one of the areas where the U.S., at the minute, is facing genuine constraints. When you think about some of the forecasts that have been put out there in terms of $10 trillion of spending related to Generative AI, the number of data centers that are going to be built, and the power shortfall that has been forecast. We're talking about someone having to pay the price, if you will, to ration power until you can upgrade the grid. And in the U.S., that grid upgrade, to be blunt, has lagged some of the rest of the world. Not only because the rest of the world was slower to modernize and leapfrogged in many ways. But we know in China, for example, they have one of the lowest electricity generation costs on the planet. That is an advantage for them. So, we have to consider that power generation writ large is potentially a force for upward inflation, at least in the short term. Andrew Sheets: So we have the fiscal policy backdrop. We have an AI spending backdrop both contributing to the demand side of inflation. We have these supply constraints, whether it's housing or labor also, you know, potentially being more structural drivers of higher inflation. The question I'm sure that investors are asking you is, what should they do about it? So, can you walk us through the key strategies that investors might want to consider as they navigate a new inflationary regime? Lisa Shalett: Sure. So, the first thing that we think it's really important for folks to appreciate is that typically when we've been in these higher inflation regimes in the past, stocks and bonds become positively correlated. And what that means is that the power of a very simple 60-40 or stock-bond-cash portfolio to provide complete or optimal diversification fades. And it requires investors to potentially consider investing, especially beyond fixed income. Stocks very often are pro-inflationary assets; meaning many, many companies have the power to pass through price increases. If you are consuming income from a fixed income or a bond instrument, inflation is your enemy, right? Because it's eating into your real returns. And so, one of the things that we're talking with our clients a lot about in terms of portfolio construction are things like adding real assets, adding infrastructure assets, adding energy, transportation assets, adding commodities. Adding gold even, to a certain extent. You know, there may be cryptocurrencies that have lower correlations to their portfolios. Andrew Sheets: Just to play devil's advocate, you can imagine that some investors might say, ‘Well, I can look in the market at long-term inflation expectations.' And those long-term inflation expectations have been kind of stable and a bit above the Fed's target. But not dramatically. So, what do you say to that? And what do you think those markets either might be missing? Or how could investors leverage that more benign view that's out there in the market? Lisa Shalett: Yeah, so look, I think here's where the debate, right? Our perception has been that inflation expectations have remained extraordinarily anchored – because investors have actually reasonably short memories on the one hand, and we have, by and large, been in disinflationary times. Second, there's extraordinary faith in policy makers – that policy makers will fight inflation. And I think the third thing is that there's extraordinary faith in the deflationary forces of technology. Now, all three of those things may absolutely, positively be true. The problem that we have is that the alternate case, right? The case that we're making – that maybe we're in a new inflationary regime is not priced, and the risk is non-zero. And so, what we see, and what we're watching is – how steep does the yield curve get, right? As we look at yields in the 10-30-year tenure – what is driving those rates higher? Is it a generic term premium? Or are we starting to see an unanchoring, if you will, of inflation expectations. And it takes a while for people to appreciate regime change. And so, look, as is always the case, there's no absolutes in the market. There's no one theory that is priced and the other theory is not. But sometimes you want to hedge, and we think that we're going through a period where diversified portfolios and hedging for these alternative outcomes -- because there are such powerful structural crosscurrents – is the preferred path. Andrew Sheets: Lisa, thanks for sharing your insights Lisa Shalett: Of course, Andrew. That's my pleasure. Andrew Sheets: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us, wherever you listen. It helps more people find the show.

Markets are printing fresh highs, yet some investors are getting crushed—how does that happen? In this roundtable, Ryan Payne, Bob Payne, Courtney Garcia, and Frankie Lagrotteria break down a real case of a couple in their late 50s whose “do‑anything‑to-go-faster” portfolio relied on leverage and crowd‑favorite names…right as they approach full retirement. We dissect why speculation masquerading as strategy can implode even in up markets, why “know what you own and why you own it” matters more than ever, and how to rebuild a plan centered on durable income and disciplined risk management. You'll hear why the “Ozempic portfolio” analogy fits—everyone wants the quick fix—but lasting wealth still requires basics: diversified exposure, sensible cash flow, and rules that keep emotions out of the driver's seat. We also cover today's opportunities to generate income (value, small caps, international, REITs, and bonds at still‑elevated yields), our 5% rebalance discipline, and the investor psychology traps that move the goalposts until a margin call makes the decision for you. As Bob puts it: time passes, markets operate—embrace that principle, and you'll stop chasing the cool kids and start compounding with the rich ones. What we cover: Why leverage is a “rocket booster” on both gains and losses—and how portfolios can sink while indexes rise The danger of fashion FOMO: copying friends, gym talk, or headlines instead of a plan Income blindness: several million invested but only ~$4K/year in cash flow—why that's a retirement red flag Today's income playbook: value, small caps, international, REITs, and bonds (with yields still attractive) Discipline over drama: our 5% rebalance trigger and rules that keep feelings from running your money Investor psychology: goalpost‑moving, “being right twice” in speculation, and volatility as the fee for long‑term returns Practical steps to audit and de‑risk before retirement Key takeaways: Know what you own and why. Double‑levered bets can fall even when the market is up—understand the mechanics before you buy. Build real cash flow. Retirement works best when your portfolio pays you, so diversify toward durable income sources. Write your rules. Pre‑commit to rebalance triggers, position limits, and exit criteria to avoid emotional decisions. Approximately right beats precisely wrong. You don't need to predict the next macro move; you need a plan you can stick to. Calls to action: If you're within 5–10 years of retirement, run a leverage and income audit on your portfolio. Want help building a rules‑based, income‑focused plan? Schedule a consult with the Payne Capital team and let's put discipline to work: paynecm.com/financialplan/ — Enjoying the show? Follow, rate, and review Payne Points of Wealth on Apple Podcasts and Spotify and share this episode with a friend who's chasing “quick wins” instead of compounding.

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Crypto News: Digital Wealth Partners introduces algorithmic XRP trading for qualified retirement accounts. Coinbase rolls out stock trading, prediction markets, tokenization platform. The Fed has just rolled back its 2023 policy, opening the door for uninsured and insured banks under its supervision to participate in crypto activities.Brought to you by

Hour 1 for 12/18/25 Drew and Ambassador Joseph Cella discuss the Trump administration's posture towards Venezuela (15:22), and China's role in the conversation (21:00). Then, Peter Grandich discusses the markets (29:03), Trump's economic message (35:43), and the Shiller PE Ratio (40:08). Links: https://petergrandich.com/suggested-readings/a-biblical-perspective-on-matters-of-finance/ https://petergrandich.com/suggested-readings/7-deadly-sins-of-finance/ https://petergrandich.com/suggested-readings/kids-and-cash-2/

Crypto Town Hall is a daily livestream focused on dissecting market trends, news, and narratives in the cryptocurrency sector. The goal is to make sense of recent price action, whale movements, key technological developments, and broader macroeconomic shifts affecting crypto. The hosts and panelists discuss market sentiment amid Bitcoin trading sideways, altcoin struggles, institutional involvement, and major news—like Coinbase's push into stock trading and customized stablecoins. The conversation mixes data, personal anecdotes from international conferences, and speculative macro projections examining where real growth, adoption, and liquidity may come from next.

Bitcoin faces one of its most critical moments yet. The crypto market is reeling as Bitcoin ETFs sink underwater, creating a $100 billion liquidity crunch not seen since FTX. Analysts warn that many new crypto ETFs could face liquidation just months after launch, even as the SEC opens the door to hundreds more under new listing rules. Meanwhile, Grayscale predicts 2026 will mark the dawn of crypto's institutional era & DTCC begins tokenizing U.S. Treasuries.

Canadian CPI surprised slightly to the downside, but food inflation is still biting, with big moves in staples like beef and coffee. We also break down the shakeup at Lululemon as the CEO steps down, and why investors appear to be welcoming change. On the Canadian side, we dig into Group Dynamite’s eye-popping results and what’s behind the momentum. Finally, we tackle the name that’s been weighing on markets. We wrap with WSP’s latest acquisition and why grid modernization could be one of the more compelling “picks and shovels” angles to the broader AI buildout. Tickers of Stocks Discussed: LULU, ORCL, WSP.TO, GRGD.TO Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For decades, the 60/40 portfolio—stocks and bonds—served as the foundation of balanced investing. Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz examine the growing global forces reshaping markets. While Wall Street has remained fixated on AI hyperscalers, major developments abroad are increasingly driving returns and risk. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Inflation Report Preview - Where's the Fed's Soft Landing? 3:05 - Markets working Through the Chop 9:56 - Top 10 Christmas Movies 13:24 - Inflation Expectations (Preview) 14:35 - The Fed Ends QT 20:35 - JP Morgan's Liquidity Crunch 22:53 - Is the Economy Slowing More than They Think? 24:03 - Is the 60/40 Portfolio Model Dead? 26:07 - CAPE-10 Predictions 27:05 - The All-weather Portfolio - Why to Own Bonds 31:31 - Double Digit Environment is Unsustainable 32:33 - How Are Bonds Not Safe?? 34:42 - BitCoin Does Not Belong in Your "Safe" Bucket 37:29 - Safe Money Bucket Composition 42:43 - Why Central Banks Hold Gold 48:15 - Bonds vs Real Estate 51:23 - Diversification Matters 52:01 - A note about REIT's Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XBlkxO7lfI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Oversold After Key Support Break," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ITeHTYtt1Q&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday: Live Market Questions & Investor Insights," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJV-vnHx4Eg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketVolatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OversoldMarkets #PortfolioManagement #SectorRotation #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioRisk #AssetAllocation #BondMarkets #MacroOutlook

It's the most wonderful time of the year, when asset managers release their prognostications for the next 12 months, and investors hope that a Santa rally delivers a late-December boost to their portfolios. In our last episode of 2025, Brian Levitt explains why he wanted to name Invesco's 2026 outlook “K-Pop,” but decided on “Resilience and Rebalancing” instead. (Invesco Distributors, Inc.)

Are you one tough market away from making or breaking your STR dreams? In this eye-opening solo episode, Kenny Bedwell delivers his no-BS, data-driven breakdown of 2025's market shakeups and lays out urgent, can't-miss predictions for 2026.With competition at a boiling point and Airbnb's pricing bombshell still sending shockwaves, Kenny Bedwell exposes where investors keep getting crushed, and who's quietly winning big. From wild price slashes to the “big fish or die” investor mentality, this episode is packed with the kind of ruthless honesty and hard metrics you won't get from any hype-driven guru.Tune in now or risk fumbling the next 12 months. Discover the exclusive moves smart investors will make next, before the rest of the market catches on, and before average operators are left behind for good.Timestamped Highlights[00:00] – Why “average” properties are getting destroyed while 90th percentile performers quietly flourish[00:03:51] – The mindset shift every STR buyer must make now to avoid draining cash flow[00:06:26] – Markets you'd written off are making a shocking comeback—here's why[00:08:17] – Explosive legal shakeups: Are STRs still real estate or something else?[00:10:33] – The Airbnb fee switch: How hosts are sabotaging themselves and tanking in search rankings[00:13:10] – The real reason your smart price hikes backfired—and how to break the algorithm instead[00:18:46] – The “turnkey trap”: Why offloading STRs is about to flood the market (and what smart buyers must do now)[00:24:33] – Surprise winners & fallen stars: The brutally honest 2026 top markets preview[00:26:31] – Kenny's wild 2026 prediction: The coming Airbnb “pay to play” eraMentioned ResourcesSTR Scale Summit (event)Top Markets Report (via STR Insights)Airbnb LuxeAirdna (STR market data)Important LinksWant us to find the deals for you? https://strinsights.com Get Top Markers for STRs (2025) - https://rebrand.ly/28b1df Instagram – @kenny_bedwellYouTube – Cash Flow PositiveLinkedIn – Kenneth BedwellCash Flow Positive is an original podcast hosted by Kenny Bedwell. Brought to you by STR Insights. Production and editing by Podcast Your Brand.

We discuss how the Netflix vs. Paramount, Warner Brothers merger will lead to media monopolies, their motives behind acquiring Warner Brothers. We learn about Kalshi, a predictive marketing app that wants to monetize "differences in cultural opinion", and their partnership with CNN.

Peter delves into important market movements including profit-taking and stock rotations, the fourth industrial revolution, and landmark events of 2025. Although he's not a financial advisor, Peter provides invaluable insights to help you understand market trends and inspires you to get involved. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments.

BP ousts its CEO Murray Auchincloss overnight following investor frustration with net zero strategy and share under-performance. He is replaced by Woodside Petroleum's Meg O'Neill who becomes the oil major's fourth boss in six years. EU leaders gather in Brussels at a crucial summit to decide funding for Ukraine. And European investors await ‘Super Thursday' with central banks' rates decisions expected from the ECB, Riksbank, Norgesbank and BoE later today.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Public Policy Strategists Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore break down key moves from the White House, U.S. Congress and Supreme Court that could influence markets 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, U.S. Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about the outlook for U.S. public policy and its interaction with markets into 2026.It's Wednesday, December 17th at 10:30am in New York.So, Ariana, we published our year ahead outlook last month. And since then, you've been out there talking to clients about U.S. public policy, its interaction with markets, and how that plays into 2026. What sorts of topics are on investors' minds around this theme?Ariana Salvatore: So, the first thing I'd say is clients are definitely interested in our more bullish outlook, in particular for the U.S. equity market. And normally we would start these conversations by talking through the policy variables, right? Immigration, deregulation, fiscal, and trade policy. But I think now we're actually post peak uncertainty for those variables, and we're talking through how the policy choices that have been made interact with the outlook.So, in particular for the equity market, we do think that some of the upside actually is pretty isolated from the fact that we're post peak uncertainty on tariffs, for example. Consumer discretionary – the double upgrade that our strategists made in the outlook has very little to do with the policy backdrop, and more to do with fundamentals, and things like AI and the dollar tailwind and all of all those factors.So, I think that that's a key difference. I would say it's more about the implementation of these policy decisions rather than which direction is the policy going to go in.Michael Zezas: Picking up on that point about policy uncertainty, when we were having this conversation a year ago, right after the election, looking into 2025, the key policy variables that we were going to care about – trade, fiscal policy regulation – there was a really wide range of plausible outcomes there.With tariffs, for example, you could make a credible argument that they weren't going to increase at all. But you could also make a credible argument that the average effective tariff rate was going to go up to 50 or 60 percent. While the tariff story certainly isn't over going into 2026, it certainly feels like we've landed in a place that's more range bound. It's an average effective tariff rate that's four to five times higher than where we started the year, but not nearly as high as some of the projections would have. There's still some negotiation that's going on between the U.S. and China and ways in which that could temporarily escalate; and with some other geographies as well. But we think the equilibrium rate is roughly around where we're at right now.Fiscal policy is another area where the projections were that we were going to have anything from a very substantial deficit expansion. Tax cuts that wouldn't be offset in any meaningful way by spending cuts; to a fiscal contraction, which was going to be more focused on heavier spending cuts that would've more than offset any tax cuts. We landed somewhere in between. It seems like there's some modest stimulus in the pipe for next year. But again, that is baked. We don't expect Congress to do much more there.And in terms of regulation, listen, this is a little bit more difficult, but regulatory policy tends to move slowly. It's a bureaucratic process. We thought that some of it would start last year, but it would be in process and potentially hit next year and the year after. And that's kind of where we are.So, we more or less know how these variables have become something closer to constants, and to your point, Ariana now it's about observing how economic actors, companies, consumers react to those policy choices. And what that means for the economy next year.All that said, there's always the possibility that we could be wrong. So, going back to tariffs for a minute, what are you looking at that could change or influence trade policy in a way that investors either might not expect or just have to account for in a new way?Ariana Salvatore: So, I would say the clearest catalyst is the impending decision from the Supreme Court on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs. I think on that front, there are really two things to watch. The first is what President Trump does in response. Right now, there's an expectation that he will just replace the tariffs with other existing authorities, which I think probably should still be our base case. There's obviously a growing possibility, we think, that he actually takes a lighter touch on tariffs, given the concerns around affordability. And then the second thing I would say is on the refunds piece. So, if the Supreme Court does, in fact, say that the Treasury has to pay back the tariff revenue that it's collected, we've investigated some different scenarios what that could look like. In short, we think it's going to be dragged out over a long time period, probably six months at a minimum. And a lot of this will come down to the implementation and what specifically Treasury and CBP, its Customs and Border Protection, sets up to get that money back out to companies.The second catalyst on the trade front is really the USMCA review. So, this is an important topic because it matters a lot for the nearshoring narrative, for the trade relationship that the U.S. has with Mexico and Canada. And there are a number of sectors that come into scope. Obviously, Autos is the clearest impact.So, that's something that's going to happen by the middle of next year. But early in January, the USTR has to give his evaluation of the effectiveness of the USMCA to Congress. I think at that point we're going to start to see headlines. We're going to go start to see lawmakers engage more publicly with this topic. And again, a lot at stake in terms of North American supply chains. So that's going to be a really interesting development to keep an eye on next year too.Michael Zezas: So, what about things that Congress might do? Recently the President and Democrats have been talking about the concept of affordability in the wake of some of the off-cycle elections, where that appeared to influence voter behavior and give Democrats an advantage. So are there policies, any legislative policies in particular, that might come to the forefront that might impact how consumers behave?Ariana Salvatore: So a really important starting point here is just on the process itself, right? So, as we've said, one of the more reliable historical priors is that it's difficult to legislate during election years. That's a function of the fact that lawmakers just aren't in D.C. as often. You also have limited availabilities in terms of procedure itself because Republicans would have to probably do another Reconciliation Bill unless you get some bipartisan support.But hitting on this topic of affordability, there really are a few different things on the table right now. Obviously, the President has spoken about these tariff dividend checks, the $2,000. They've spoken about making changes on housing policy, so housing deregulation, and then the third is on these expanded ACA subsidies.Those were obviously the crux of the government shutdown debate. And for a variety of reasons, I think each of these are really challenging to see moving over the finish line in the coming months. We think that you would need to see some sort of exogenous economic downturn, which is not currently in our economists' baseline forecast, to really get that kind of more reactive fiscal policy.And because of those procedural constraints, I would just go back to the point we were saying earlier around tariff policy and maybe the Supreme Court decision, giving Trump this opportunity to pull back a little bit. It's really the easiest and most available policy lever he has to address affordability. And to that point, the administration has already taken steps in this direction. They provided a number of exemptions on agricultural products and said they weren't going to move forward with the Section 232 tariffs on semiconductors in the very near term. So, we're already seeing directionally, I would say, movement in this area.Michael Zezas: Yeah. And I think we should also keep our eye on potential legislation around energy exploration. This is something that in the past has had bipartisan support loosening up regulations around that, and it's something that also ties into the theme of developing AI as a national imperative. That being said, it's not in our base case because Democrats and Republicans might agree on the high points of loosening up regulations for energy exploration. But there's a lot of disagreements on the details below the surface.But there's also the midterm elections next year. So, how do you think investors should be thinking about that – as a major catalyst for policy change? Or is it more of the same: It's an interesting story that we should track, but ultimately not that consequential.Ariana Salvatore: So obviously we're still a year out. A lot can change. But obviously we're keeping an eye on polling and that sort of data that's coming in daily at this point. The historical precedent will tell you that the President's party almost always loses seats in a midterm election. And in the House with a three-seat majority for Republicans, the bar's actually pretty low for Democrats to shift control back. In the Senate, the map is a little bit different. But let's say you were to get something like a split Congress, we think the policy ramifications there are actually quite limited. If you get a divided government, you basically get fiscal gridlock. So, limits to fiscal expansion, absent like a recession or something like that – that we don't expect at the moment. But you really will probably see legislation only in areas that have bipartisan support.In the meantime, I think you could also expect to see more kind of political fights around things like appropriations, funding the government, the debt ceiling that's typical of divided governments, unless you have some area of bipartisan support, like I said. Maybe we see something on healthcare, crypto policy, AI policy, industrial policy is becoming more of the mainstream in both parties, so potentially some action there.But I think that's probably the limit of the most consequential policy items we should be looking out for.Michael Zezas: Right, so the way I've been thinking about it is: No clear new policies that someone has to account for coming out of the midterms. However, we definitely have to pay attention. There could be some soft signals there about political preferences and resulting policy preferences that might become live a couple years down the line after we get into the 2028 general elections – and the new power configuration that could result from that.So – interesting, impactful, not clear that there'll be fundamental catalysts. And probably along the way we should pay attention because markets will discount all sorts of potential outcomes. And it could get the wrong way on interpreting midterm outcomes, which could present opportunities. So, we'll certainly be tracking that throughout 2026.Ariana Salvatore: Yeah. And if you think about the policy items that President Trump has leaned on most heavily this year and that have mattered for markets, there are things in the executive branch, right? So, tariff policy obviously does not depend on Congress. Deregulation helps if you have fundamental backing from Congress but can occur through the executive agencies. So, to your point, less to watch out for in terms of how it will shift Trump's behavior.Michael Zezas: Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Always great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

In this episode of the Okay Computer Podcast, host Dan Nathan welcomes Ed Elson, the host of Prof G Markets and the First Time Founders podcast. They discuss the dynamics of hosting versus guesting on podcasts, Ed's journey from being an intern for Scott Galloway to co-hosting podcasts with him, and the evolution of Gen Z's relationship with markets and investing. They delve into the generational differences in economic opportunities, the impact of technological advancements, and the challenges and potentials of AI. The conversation touches on notable trends like meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, and the broader implications of AI on job markets and business. They also explore how the current market is shaped by both hype and practicalities surrounding AI investments. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

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SpaceX IPO coming – huge increase in valuation over past 3 months Happy Hanukah – Eight Crazy Nights Now Kevin AND Kevin PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Last Chance for CTP Cup 2025 participants - Happy Hanukah - Eight Crazy Nights - Sad News - Rob Reiner - Fed decision is out.... - Overdue eco reports coming this week Markets - Oracle still problematic - SpaceX IPO coming - huge increase in valuation over past 3 months - Another Bankruptcy - cleaning up is not good business - Oh my - Now Kevin AND Kevin - Weight loss game continues - One thing saved for last - a doozie... Tesla -  - All time High - Prospect of Robotaxi - Even though sales hitting multi-year lows Wall Street Never Sleeps? - Nasdaq files to extend trading to 23 hours on weekdays - Banks concerned about investor protections, costs, liquidity, volatility risks of nonstop trading - Proponents argue round-the-clock trading benefits global investors - That may create some additional volatility potential SpaceX - SpaceX aims for a potential $1.5 trillion market cap with an Initial Public Offering in 2026, which could become the largest IPO in history - July 2025 tender valuation was $400B - Dec 14th (4 months later) $800B - Starlink is the primary money winner of this deal - Tesla shares climbing even with nothing behind it - seemingly in sympathy for this IPO ---- TESLA does not have ownership of SpaceX - OH - this could be the reason....U.S. deliveries dropped significantly in November—the lowest since early 2022—but this weakness has been overshadowed by the enthusiasm for autonomy. Rob Reiner - A son of legendary Hollywood director Rob Reiner and his wife, producer Michele Singer Reiner, Nick Reiner, is being held on suspicion of murder following their deaths, according to Los Angeles Police Department Chief Jim McDonnell. He's being held on $4 million bail. - Citing law enforcement sources and family friends, ABC News reported on Monday that Nick Reiner had recently returned to live at his parents' South Chadbourne Avenue home. The move was described as a temporary arrangement intended to help him stabilize. - Not going to discuss the Truth Social post about this tragedy HEADLINE ALERT - "Copper could hit ‘stratospheric new highs' as hoarding of the metal in U.S. continues" - Copper has gone from 5.77 to 5.30 (July to today) - 6 Tops at this price since 2011 - Not seeing this as per the headline - seems like a Hunt Brothers special from the 1980s - CORNERING THE MARKET ---1980 - Silver went from $11 to $50 then crashed, bankrupting the Hunt Bros - after COMEX changed rules forcing them to cover positions Bankruptcy - After 35 years, the maker of the Roomba robot vacuum filed for bankruptcy protection late Sunday night. Following warnings issued earlier this year that it was fast running out of options, iRobot says it is entering Chapter 11 protection and will be acquired by its contract manufacturer, China-based Picea Robotics. - The company says it will continue to operate “with no anticipated disruption to its app functionality, customer programs, global partners, supply chain relationships, or ongoing product support.” - Remember that Amazon  - The Amazon buyout of iRobot, maker of Roomba, was announced in 2022 for $1.7 billion but ultimately failed in January 2024 due to significant regulatory pushback, primarily from the EU, over anti-competitive concerns. -- Amazon walked away with a $94 million termination fee Fed Pick - President Donald Trump said Friday that Kevin Warsh has moved to the top of his list as the next Federal Reserve chair, though Kevin Hassett also remains in contention, according to the Wall Street Journal. - Interesting that this comes days after Hassett said that we would not let outside suggestions influence his voting - ---In addition to putting heavier weight on Warsh getting the job, Trump repeated an assertion he has made in the past that the Fed chair ought to consult the president about interest rate decisions. - Also of interest, prediction markets had Hassett at 95% probability - now it moved to 50% - big payday for people in the know. Housing Prices - Average home price is DOWN on  year-over-year basis - First time on national level since 2024 - Active listings in November were nearly 13% higher than November 2024, but new listings were just 1.7% higher --- Houses are on market longer - - Prices in Austin, Texas, are down 10% from last year; in Denver, they're down 5%, according to Parcl Labs. Tampa, Florida, and Houston both saw prices fall 4%, and Atlanta and Phoenix saw price decreases of 3%. More Hosing Related -  Zillow shares plunged more than 9% on Monday on worries that the online real estate platform could have a big new competitor: Google Search. - Google appears to be running tests on putting real estate sale listings into its search results. Overdue Eco  - Black Hole - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday releases its long-awaited combined employment reports for October and November, but a number of key details will be missing after the government shutdown prevented data collection, including October's unemployment rate, resulting in the first-ever gap in that critical data series since inception in 1948. - NICE JOB GANG! - Some of the data will be estimated. - It said it would not publish the headline CPI number or the so-called core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy components, for October. "BLS cannot provide specific guidance to data users for navigating the missing October observations," the agency said. Some Updates - Some info coming in are estimates - some delayed - Unemployment at 4.6% - Latest report shows +64,000 added - ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing - both slowed over the last month The Fed - Meanwhile the Fed cuts rates.... - A Federal Reserve split over where its priorities should lie cut its key interest rate Wednesday in a 9-3 vote, but signaled a tougher road ahead for further reductions. - The FOMC's “dot plot” indicated just one more reduction in 2026 and another in 2027, amid considerable disagreement from members about where rates should head. - In addition to the rate decision, the Fed also announced it will resume buying Treasury securities. The central bank will start by buying $40 billion in Treasury bills, beginning Friday. - Markets were all over the place on this as it was a little confusing at first - then it seemed that everyone loved (for one day) - Why is the Fed moving up Treasury purchases to "immediately" from a few months from now? - AND - dissension ! A larger group  that usual of regional Fed bank presidents signaled they opposed the cut, and six policymakers said the benchmark federal funds rate should end 2025 in a range of 3.75% to 4%, suggesting they opposed the move. - Long bonds have not moved at all on this news. Costco Earnings - Costco beat Wall Street's fiscal first-quarter sales and revenue expectations. - Sales rose 8.2% and digital sales jumped 20.5% compared with the year-ago quarter. - Costco surpassed Wall Street's quarterly expectations and posted year-over-year sales growth of 8.2% as the retailer attracted more digital sales and opened new locations. - Earnings per share: $4.50 vs. $4.27 expected - Revenue: $67.31 billion vs. $67.14 billion expected - Costco does not provide year ahead guidance - Shares down from a recent high of $855 Costco Fun Facts - About 4.5 million pies were sold in the three days before Thanksgiving, which is equivalent to roughly 7,000 pies per warehouse. -  These were bakery pies (e.g., pumpkin, apple), - Costco had more than $250 million in non-food online orders on Black Friday, a record for Costco's U.S. e-commerce business. - Approximately 358,000 whole pizzas were served at Costco's U.S. food courts, a 31% jump from last year. (500 pizza's per store) Fat No More - Retatrutide - Eli Lilly said its next-generation obesity drug delivered what appears to be the highest weight loss seen so far in a late-stage trial and reduced knee arthritis pain, clearing the first of several upcoming studies on the weekly injection. - In a 48-week Phase 2 study, participants on the highest dose lost an average of 24% of their body weight. - Recent Phase 3 results showed patients on the highest dose lost an average of 28.7% of their body weight after 68 weeks. - The trials also showed improvements in related health conditions, including knee osteoarthritis pain, blood pressure, and liver fat - This triple action is what makes retatrutide potentially more effective for weight loss than existing medications like Zepbound (tirzepatide), which targets two receptors, or Wegovy (semaglutide), which targets only one. Paypal - PayPal Holdings Inc. applied to become a bank in the US, looking to take advantage of the Trump administration's openness to financial-technology companies entering the banking system. - The payments-focused firm submitted applications to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Utah Department of Financial Institutions to form a Utah-chartered industrial loan company, PayPal said in a statement Monday. - If approved, PayPal Bank would help the firm bolster its small-business lending capabilities, according to the statement, which said the company has provided access to more than $30 billion in loans and capital since 2013. Ford - Management Confused - Instead of planning to make enough electric vehicles to account for 40 percent of global sales by 2030—as it pledged just four years ago—Ford says it will focus on a broader range of hybrids, extended-range electrics, and battery-electric models, which executives now say will account for 50 percent of sales by the end of the decade. - The automaker will make hybrid versions of almost every vehicle in its lineup, the company says. - All in on EVS cost them -  Ford expects to record about $19.5 billion in special items, mostly during the fourth quarter. ---- The charges are related to a restructuring of its business priorities and a pullback in its all-electric vehicle investments. Australia - Australia has implemented a groundbreaking ban preventing children under 16 from accessing major social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Facebook, effective December 2025, to protect them from harm, with significant fines for companies failing to enforce it, though messaging apps and gaming platforms are currently exempt. - Reddit is suing - Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, Threads, TikTok, X (Twitter), YouTube, Reddit, Kick, and Twitch are all banned for kids under 16. - Thoughts on this? Saved For Last - Of all the eye-popping numbers that Oracle Corp. published last week on the costs of its artificial-intelligence data center buildout, the most striking didn't appear until the day after its earnings press release and analyst call. - The more comprehensive 10-Q earnings report that appeared on Thursday detailed $248 billion of lease-payment commitments, “substantially all” related to data centers and cloud capacity arrangements, the business-software firm said. These are due to commence between now and its 2028 financial year but they're not yet included on its balance sheet. - That's almost $150 billion more than was disclosed in the footnotes of September's earnings update. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? The Winner for iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Dec 16, 2025 – FS Insider sits down with Jeff Christian of CPM Group, one of the industry's most respected and accurate precious metals and commodity analysts, for a comprehensive outlook on the metals markets—especially in light of silver...

Brian from Santiment joined me to review the metrics for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Zcash.

Crypto News: Visa launches USDC settlement for US banks on Solana blockchain. US banks could soon issue stablecoins under FDIC plan to implement GENIUS Act. Marshall Islands launches world's first blockchain-based UBI on Stellar blockchain.Brought to you by

The Crypto Town Hall discussion highlights the current stagnant Bitcoin market amid year-end holidays, with sideways price movements around $88,000-$90,000 driven by minor catalysts like whale buying and short squeezes. Panelists emphasize the ongoing institutional rotation and accumulation, regulatory uncertainties delaying major catalysts until 2026, and emerging technologies such as privacy solutions and Layer 2 enhancements that promise long-term growth. They also debate the quantum computing threat as largely overhyped, focusing instead on AI-driven cybersecurity risks. The conversation culminates in a detailed introduction of Bob, a new hybrid Bitcoin Layer 2 platform designed to unlock Bitcoin's DeFi potential by enabling trustless, native Bitcoin financial services integrated with Ethereum's ecosystem, aiming to transform Bitcoin from a passive asset into a productive financial tool. Overall, the discussion underscores a patient, foundational buildup phase with promising technological and regulatory developments shaping the crypto landscape toward a more mature and institutionalized 2026.

Private asset-based finance (ABF) is the catch-all of credit markets—a diverse and complex segment offering a wide range of investment opportunities. In this follow-up to our previous ABF discussion, we delve deeper into the asset class and what it takes to be successful from origination to underwriting and portfolio construction. We discuss investment areas of interest—as well as those we're apt to avoid—and examine the convergence of structured products and corporate credit through the lens of AI and data center finance. This episode also explores market dynamics, risk management, and where private ABF fits into multi-asset portfolio construction. PGIM's Brian Barnhurst, CFA, Head of Global Credit Research, hosts Oliver Nisenson, Head of Asset-Based Finance. Recorded on November 26, 2025.

A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed's own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.Key Takeaways:• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forwardJump to:0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 202641:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And WagesConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In this episode of The Tech Leader's Playbook, Avetis Antaplyan sits down with Vijay Rajendran, investor and venture builder at gAI Ventures, UC Berkeley instructor, and author of the bestselling book The Funding Framework. Vijay brings a deeply grounded perspective on how the next generation of AI companies will actually be built, not through hype or speed alone, but through domain expertise, thoughtful leadership, and disciplined execution.The conversation explores why domain experts now have a growing advantage over pure technologists, how venture studios are evolving in an AI-first world, and what truly separates fundable AI startups from products that will be replaced by the next model release. Vijay shares insights from working with hundreds of founders, including why verticalized AI, workflow integration, and right-sized markets matter more than ever.They also dive into leadership transitions founders must make, common early-stage execution mistakes, and why fundraising is far more about listening than pitching. Drawing from his own journey as a founder and investor, Vijay emphasizes customer empathy, coachability, and falling in love with the problem rather than the solution. This episode is a must-listen for founders, operators, and tech leaders building durable companies in the age of AI.TakeawaysFounders are often poor predictors of which startups will succeed, even within their own cohorts.Exceptional companies start with a “secret” insight about how an industry truly works.Domain expertise is becoming more valuable than pure technical skill as AI commoditizes development.The strongest AI startups are verticalized and embedded directly into existing workflows.Markets should be big enough to matter, but small enough that Big Tech won't prioritize them.AI creates leverage by removing tedious work and amplifying human judgment and relationships.“Rip and replace” products face long sales cycles; bolt-on tools win faster adoption.Early traction can be misleading. Durable demand matters more than initial excitement.Founders must shift from doing everything to enabling others as the company grows.Fundraising success comes from dialogue and listening, not perfect pitch decks.Coachability and customer empathy are long-term founder advantages.The best founders fall in love with the problem, not their first solution.Chapters00:00 The Future of AI Startups02:00 What Predicts Founder Success04:30 Domain Experts vs. Technologists07:00 Where AI Is Creating Real Value10:30 Using AI to Free Humans13:00 What Makes an AI Idea Defensible17:00 How Modern Venture Studios Operate22:00 Choosing the Right Technical Partner27:30 Founder Mindset Shifts29:30 Common Early-Stage Mistakes33:00 Rethinking Fundraising41:00 Underrated AI Opportunities45:00 One Message for FoundersVijay Rajendran's Social Media Links:https://www.linkedin.com/in/vijayarajendran/The Funding Framework: Secure Startup Funding With Confidencehttps://a.co/d/jlwaiNvResources and Links:https://www.hireclout.comhttps://www.podcast.hireclout.comhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/hirefasthireright

Markets briefly retested the 50-day moving average before rebounding toward break-even, remaining locked in a broader consolidation range. While sell signals are currently in place and relative strength continues to normalize, short-term weakness and choppy trading may persist. Importantly, this pullback is creating a more constructive setup as markets work off oversold conditions, potentially laying the groundwork for renewed buying interest into year-end. That said, seasonal strength is not guaranteed. December has not always delivered positive returns, and risk remains elevated as portfolio managers continue year-end positioning and rebalancing across large-cap, small- and mid-cap, and international markets. Investors should remain focused on risk management, discipline, and flexibility as volatility creates both challenges and tactical opportunities. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4PjkAGK804&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketOutlook #StockMarketToday #TechnicalAnalysis #YearEndMarkets #RiskManagement

In this episode of the Follow the Money podcast, Jerry Robinson breaks down how politics, markets, and power are colliding in real time.Jerry begins with a look at President Trump's recent cannabis policy pivot and the sharp rally it sparked in cannabis stocks, explaining why markets move quickly on political signals.He then turns to Venezuela, exploring the deeper geopolitical and economic forces at play, including oil, dollar power, and America's long history of intervention in Latin America.In the second half of the show, Jerry delivers his latest market commentary, covering the S&P 500, gold, silver, Bitcoin, and crude oil. He explains where trends remain intact, where risks are rising, and why discipline matters more than prediction.The episode concludes with a powerful final word that reminds us that all people are made in the image of God and therefore worthy of love and compassion. 

Coinbase just made a huge move: stablecoin yields are gone for regular users and moved behind a paywall. What does this mean for DeFi, crypto investors, and yield hunters? At the same time, Robinhood is shaking things up — launching bold new prediction market products that could change retail investing forever.~This episode is sponsored by Uphold~Uphold Get $20 in Bitcoin - Signup & Verify and trade at least $100 of any crypto within your first 30 days ➜ https://bit.ly/pbnuphold00:00 intro00:06 Coinbase ends free yields00:51 Robinhood Gold vs Coinbase One01:21 Sponsor: Uphold 02:35 Coinbase announcements today03:12 Robinhood Supercycle?03:55 Rebels04:28 Prediction Market upgrades05:00 Prediction Market survives bear market05:36 Robinhood Insurance Coming05:56 Custom Combo Markets06:29 Culture is bigger than sports07:06 Robinhood A.I. Cortex08:16 Which Exchange Will Win A.I.?09:02 Tokenized Stocks on Robinhood09:59 Marketshare Comparison10:26 xStocks Holders Hold Robinhood10:50 Securitize Launches Stocks11:14 Market Growth Potential12:24 Bullish Case is Bigger13:05 CLARITY Act Delayed14:20 Robinhood Doesn't Care14:49 Visa & Bank Lobby is Winning16:37 Exciting Updates Coming Today?17:20 $COIN vs $HOOD18:14 outro#Crypto #bitcoin #Ethereum~Coinbase Removes Stablecoin Yields!

Futures moved higher before the opening bell even after mortgage applications faced some pressure due to higher mortgage rates. Kevin Hincks talks about the latest data and how it can impact Wednesday's session. A blockade on Venezuelan sanctioned oil tankers already rippled through commodity markets, with crude oil rallying in reaction to heightened geopolitical tensions. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

News from the business sector, including a market report.

European futures pint to the green and the UK government is buoyed by the November CPI year-on-year print which came in 0.3 per cent lower than expected. The services CPI is down 0.2 per cent, beating expectations for the month. CNBC sources have learned that Open AI is in talks with Amazon over a potential tie-up worth more than $10bn following Sam Altman's negotiations with Microsoft which allows the firm to reach across the tech sector. Crude prices edge higher after President Trump's classification of the Maduro regime in Venezuela a foreign terrorist organisation as well as ordering of a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers. The Venezuelan government says the move is in breach of international law.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Connect with TommyIntralinkIn this episode of the Asia Business Podcast, we're joined by Tommy Shiekman, Senior Vice President at Intralink. Tommy discusses his journey from studying Chinese language to his current role at Intralink, an advisory firm assisting technology companies with cross-border expansion in Asia. He shares insights into working in China, the importance of having boots on the ground, and managing misconceptions about intellectual property. We delve into the challenges and strategies for U.S. tech companies entering Asian markets, emphasizing patience and the need for anchor clients. Tommy also highlights the impacts of geopolitical tensions and identifies sectors with significant opportunities, such as clean tech, healthcare, and mobility.

As ESG debates evolve and financial materiality moves to the forefront, the issues shaping company performance are becoming clearer — and more consequential. In this episode of Bloomberg Intelligence’s ESG Currents podcast, BI’s director of ESG research Eric Kane is joined by the analysts who hosted the show throughout the year to break down the ESG forces most likely to influence markets in 2026. Grace Osborne, Rob Du Boff, Melanie Rua, Andy Stevenson, Gail Glazerman, Yasutake Homma, Chris Ratti, Conrad Tan and Shaheen Contractor discuss sustainable debt in emerging markets, shareholder activism, water scarcity, climate damages, the ESG implications of AI, carbon removal, sustainable funds and more.The episode was recorded on Dec. 9.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we examine what actually happens when crypto markets break — how leverage builds beneath the surface, liquidity disappears, and liquidation cascades turn volatility into systemic failure. Doug Colkitt, a quantitative trader and DeFi builder whose experience spans both traditional finance and crypto market structure. Doug began his career on Wall Street at Citigroup before moving into high-frequency trading at Citadel during the 2008 financial crisis. He later built and traded his own systems across futures, volatility products, and international equities, including running a major market-making operation in Turkish stocks. Today, Doug focuses on crypto and DeFi infrastructure, working with perpetual futures, liquidation mechanics, and exchange design. We discuss why traders still get wiped out when they think they're hedged, how liquidation cascades accelerate, and what recent market failures reveal about leverage and market structure under stress. Links +Resources: Ambient Finance on X (Twitter): @AmbientFinance Website: https://ambient.finance Sponsor of Chat With Traders Podcast: ●       Trade The Pool:  ⁠⁠http://www.tradethepool.com⁠⁠    Time Stamps: Please note: Exact times will vary depending on current ads. 00:00:00  Intro and Background 00:03:43  Starting Individual Trading and High Frequency Systems 00:04:09  Focus on Index Futures and Competitive Markets 00:06:15  Michael Lewis's 'Flash Boys' and HFT Accuracy 00:07:00  Impact of HFT on Smaller Traders 00:09:13  Market Makers and Price Competition 00:09:37  HFT Evolution and Market Dynamics 00:11:24  Trading VIX Futures and Market Inefficiencies 00:13:08  Transitioning to Medium Frequency Trading 00:13:34  Trading Turkish Equities and Market Makings 00:15:35  Exploring Cryptocurrency Trading 00:18:32  Diving into Decentralized Finance (DeFi) 00:20:06  Arbitrage Opportunities in Crypto Markets 00:22:00  Flash Loans and Risk-Free Trading 00:22:48  Adjustments to Trading Bots Over Time 00:25:11  Criteria for Trusting Decentralized Exchanges 00:28:46  Liquidity Providing and Yield Opportunities 00:29:16  Volatility and Risks in Liquidity Provisioning 00:31:47  Understanding Perpetual Contracts in Crypto 00:36:04  October 10, 2025 Crypto Massacre Overview 00:37:36  Leverage and Market Dynamics 00:41:23  Impact of Liquidations on Market Sentiment 00:41:43  Market Maker Behavior During Crises 00:43:45  Liquidity Issues in Centralized Exchanges 00:44:53 Hyper Liquid Vault and Liquidation Dynamics 00:45:55 Market Making Strategies and Risk Management 00:49:15 Insurance Fund Models in DeFi 00:51:43 Ambient Finance Project Overview 00:53:08 Separation of Exchange and Clearinghouse 00:54:14 Innovations in Perpetual Trading 00:55:46 Takeaways from the October 10th Massacre 00:57:03 Future Plans for Insurance Fund Integration 00:58:28 Real World Assets and Crypto Integration Trading Disclaimer:  Trading in the financial markets involves a risk of loss. Podcast episodes and other content produced by Chat With Traders are for informational or educational purposes only and do not constitute trading or investment recommendations or advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur responds to some of the feedback from clients on Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlooks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today, I consider the pushback we've received on our 2026 outlooks – distilling the themes that drew the most debate and our responses to the debates. It's Tuesday, Dec 16th at 3:30pm in New York. It's been a few weeks [since] we published our 2026 outlooks for the global economy and markets. We've had lots of wide-ranging conversations, much dialogue and debate with our clients across the globe on the key themes that we laid out in our outlook. Feedback has ranged from strong alignment to pointed disagreement, with many nuanced views in between. We welcome this dialogue, especially the pushback, as it forces us to re-examine our assumptions and refine our thinking. Our constructive stance on AI and data center-related CapEx, along with the pivotal role we see for the credit market channels, drew notable scrutiny. Our 2026 CapEx projections was anchored by a strong conviction – that demand for compute will far outstrip the supply over the next several years. We remain confident that credit markets across unsecured, structured, and securitized instruments in both public and private domains will be central to the financing of the next wave of AI-driven investments. The crucial point here is that we think this spending will be relatively insensitive to the macro conditions, i.e., the level of interest rates and economic growth. Regarding the level of AI investment, we received a bit of pushback on our economics forecast: Why don't we forecast even more growth from AI CapEx? From our perspective, that is going to be a multi-year process, so the growth implications also extend over time. Our U.S. credit strategists' forecast for IG bond supply – $2.25 trillion in gross issuance; that's up 25 percent year-over-year, or $1 trillion in net issuance; that's 60 percent year-over-year – garnered significant attention. There was some pushback to the volume of the issuance we project. As CapEx growth outpaces revenue and pressures free cash flow, credit becomes a key financing bridge. Importantly, AI is not the sole driver of the surge that we forecast. A pick-up in M&A activity and the resulting increase in acquisition-driven IG supply also will play a key role, in our view. We also received pushback on our expectation for modest widening in credit spreads, roughly 15 basis points in investment grade, which we still think will remain near the low end of the historical ranges despite this massive surge in supply. Some clients argued for more widening, but we note that the bulk of the AI-related issuance will come from high-quality – you know AAA-AA rated issuers – which are currently underrepresented in credit markets relative to their equity market weight. Additionally, continued policy easing – two more rate cuts – modest economic re-acceleration, and persistent demand from yield-focused buyers should help to anchor the spreads. Our macro strategists' framing of 2026 as a transition year for global rates – from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization as central banks approach equilibrium – was broadly well received, as was their call for government bond yields to remain broadly range-bound. However, their view that markets will price in a dovish tilt to Fed policy sparked considerable debate. While there was broad agreement on the outlook for yield curve steepening, the nature of that steepening – bull steepening or bear steepening – remained a point of contention. Outside the U.S., the biggest pushback was to the call on the ECB cutting rates two more times in 2026. Our economists disagreed with President Lagarde – that the disinflationary process has ended. Even with moderate continued euro area growth on German fiscal expansion, but consolidation elsewhere, we still see an output gap that will eventually lead inflation to undershoot the ECB's 2 percent target. We also engaged in lively dialogue and debate on China. The key debate here comes down to a micro versus macro story. Put differently, the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. Sentiment on investments in China has turned around this year, and our strategists are on board with that view. However, from an economics point of view, we see deflation continuing and fiscal policy from Beijing as a bit too modest to spark near-term reflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

If tariffs are “making us rich,” and if tariffs are “beautiful,” and if tariffs are “finally making things fair again,” and if tariffs are everything the administration has told us they are, why have there been exemptions, exclusions, and carveouts on $1.7 trillion of imports so far? Don't get me wrong -- I would favor excluding tariffs on 100 percent of imports. But the question we address on Capital Record today is why we have exempted so many special parties and particular products if tariffs are such a force of good? As you will see, the question answers itself. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Crypto News: Bitcoin price pullsback. JPMorgan Launches Tokenized Money Market Fund on Ethereum. The senate markup on the crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act) gets delayed. Brought to you by

Charlie Lee, creator of Litecoin, joined me to discuss the latest developments in the Litecoin ecosystem.Topics: - Creation, Adoption, and Growth of Litecoin - Litecoin Digital Asset Treasury - Lite Strategy - Litecoin spot ETF - Starting a new crypto- Future of Crypto Brought to you by

Uncertainty has become the norm at work. Markets shift. Culture is shaky. Roles change mid-stride. And yet, many organizations are still trying to plan for the future using old assumptions that no longer hold. In today's environment, the question isn't how to create stability — it's how to build a talent strategy that can adapt when the ground keeps moving. My special guest today is Steve Cadigan, and he's simplifying how to build a talent strategy that thrives in uncertainty. Steve is known for challenging traditional workforce planning and helping leaders rethink how they attract, develop, and retain talent in a world where adaptability matters more than predictability. Here's how. My special guest today is Steve Cadigan and he's simplifying how to build a talent strategy that thrives in uncertainty.  We tackle and simplify all aspects of it, including: What a resilient talent strategy actually looks like today — and why agile, scenario-based thinking is replacing traditional workforce planning. Why stability is no longer the goal, and how leaders can build cultures where uncertainty becomes an advantage instead of a threat. Which "old world" recruiting and retention practices organizations should stop using immediately — and what should replace them. How leaders can help their people grow when roles and skill needs are changing faster than ever. …and ultimately, one piece of advice for HR and business leaders navigating the volatile talent market ahead. Q: Are you ready to learn how to build a talent strategy that thrives in uncertainty? If yes, this one is for you. It's time to #DoTheThing! ---- Show notes available with all links mentioned here: https://www.thesimplifiers.com/posts/406-how-to-build-a-talent-strategy-that-thrives-in-uncertainty---with-steve-cadigan

For the first time since 2009 the US unemployment rate rises for 4 consecutive readings, November's jobs report came in better than expected showing an increase of 64,000 jobs for the month, More on the next seminar with EP Wealth Advisors CFP's Chad Burton and Ryan Ignacio at the Palo Alto Elks Lodge January 15th at 6:30pm covering important tax strategies and more

Sometimes the biggest creative breakthroughs start with a mistake, and no one proves that better than Massimo Bottura.The three-Michelin-star chef behind some of the world's most iconic dishes built his reputation on turning accidents, constraints, and tradition itself into something entirely new. In this episode, we break down his marketing lessons with the help of our special guest Abel Grünfeld, VP of Marketing at Riverside.Together, we explore what B2B marketers can learn from transforming mistakes into memorable stories, using constraints to spark better ideas, and leading with calm adaptability when things inevitably go off script.About our guest, Abel GrünfeldAbel Grunfeld is Riverside's VP of marketing and first employee. He is a growth strategy expert, specializing in scaling our digital presence and building an efficient marketing pipeline. What B2B Companies Can Learn From Massimo Bottura:Turn mistakes into magnetic storytelling. Massimo Bottura's most iconic dish was born from a dropped lemon tart, which is proof that imperfections can become brand-defining moments. Abel explains, “ [It's] very inspiring to take this high stress environment… and transform it into something that actually is unique, much more creative, much more powerful in terms of storytelling.” In B2B, the same principle applies. When a campaign breaks, a launch misfires, or a plan goes sideways, don't hide it. Shape it into a story. Audiences connect most with brands that reveal the creative, human process behind the work. Your “oops” moment might become your most memorable asset.Use constraints to fuel creativity. In high-pressure kitchens, limitations create innovation, not less of it. Abel notes, “Your constraints are your advantage… By being very intentional and aware of what your constraints and disadvantages are, you can be really focused on how to use these to actually create some sort of playing field where you can be more successful.” B2B teams often don't have unlimited budgets, bandwidth, or time. That's not a disadvantage, that's focus. Constraints sharpen your narrative, strengthen your positioning, and force bold creative choices. The boundaries become the catalyst.Plan for surprises and lead through them. Massimo Bottura thrives by embracing unpredictability, treating chaos as a space for invention. Abel shares, “You always plan, but you cannot always control the outcomes… you need to plan to be surprised… and  to figure out how you make the most out of any situation.” For B2B marketers, this is the mindset shift. Markets shift. Teams change. Campaigns don't go as expected. The brands that win are the ones that stay calm, adapt quickly, and turn the unexpected into momentum. Build flexibility into your strategy so you can transform disruption into differentiation.Quote“Real creativity, very often, it's a coincidence of different factors.  There's an unintentionality behind creation that when you plan everything out, you'll never come to that result. When you allow space for exploration, for playfulness, for doing things that you never planned… sometimes they're better than what you actually can envision and visualize yourself.” Time Stamps[00:55] Meet Abel Grünfeld, VP of Marketing at Riverside [00:52] Why Massimo Bottura?[01:59 The Role of VP of Marketing at Riverside[03:02] Behind the Scenes of Massimo Bottura: The Italian Culinary Genius[14:58] Marketing Lessons from Massimo Bottura[26:19] Where are B2B Companies at with Video?[32:07] The Importance of Video Content[41:34] Content Strategy at Riverside[44:47] Simplifying Video Production[47:07] Consolidating Video Creation Tools[49:07] Final Thoughts and TakeawaysLinksConnect with Abel on LinkedInLearn more about RiversideAbout Remarkable!Remarkable! is created by the team at Caspian Studios, the premier B2B Podcast-as-a-Service company. Caspian creates both nonfiction and fiction series for B2B companies. If you want a fiction series check out our new offering - The Business Thriller - Hollywood style storytelling for B2B. Learn more at CaspianStudios.com. In today's episode, you heard from Ian Faison (CEO of Caspian Studios) and Meredith Gooderham (Head of Production). Remarkable was produced this week by Jess Avellino, mixed by Scott Goodrich, and our theme song is “Solomon” by FALAK. Create something remarkable. Rise above the noise. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Steve talks turkey with Terry Sawchuk, founder of Sawchuk Wealth, who breaks down the current economic landscape and what it means for investors. He explains why the end of quantitative tightening and $40 billion in new bank liquidity should fuel a bullish start to 2026, while cautioning about short-term structural volatility tied to this week's options expiry. He discusses the growing risk of a market blow-off top and why sustained economic growth will be essential for the market to continue higher, emphasizing that rebuilding the economy and implementing reform is a long-term strategy requiring patience and careful planning. Visit SawchukWealth.com to learn more!

Financial Advisor Tim Russell, CFP®, Pastor Drew Gysi, and Tyler Rutherford share their book recommendations from 2025See the show notes here!Subscribe to "Life in the Markets" PodcastBuy our new book: The Good StewardWealth Management from a Biblical WorldviewStewardship Seminars from a Biblical WorldviewLearn more at: StewardologyPodcast.comSchedule a Personal Stewardship Review at: StewardologyPodcast.com/ReviewGet in touch with us at: Contact@StewardologyPodcast.comor call us at: (800) 688-5800Send us episode ideas! StewardologyPodcast.com/ideaSubscribe to get episodes delivered to your inbox every week.Follow along: Facebook, InstagramA ministry of Life Financial Group & Life Institute.Securities and Advisory Services offered through GENEOS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INC. Member FINRA and SIPC

Michael Green, Chief Strategist and Portfolio Manager for Simplify Asset Management, joins Julia La Roche on episode 318 to break down his viral three-part series on America's real poverty line, revealing why families making $100,000-$140,000 are trapped in what he calls the "valley of death" - where government benefits are withdrawn before cash earnings can replace them. He explains how childcare costs, benefit cliffs, and tax code changes since the 1950s have made the American Dream nearly impossible for young families, why economists reacted so negatively to his work, and how the official poverty line ($31,200) is completely disconnected from reality. Green also discusses the implications for markets, predicting a 1929-style crash from passive investing flows, and shares what gives him hope: human potential and the power of free people over slaves.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks:Follow Mike on X: https://twitter.com/profplum99Read Mike's Substack: https://www.yesigiveafig.com/Visit Simplify: https://www.simplify.us/Timestamps00:00 Intro and welcome Mike Green01:00 Genesis of the viral poverty line series and why the American Dream is breaking down05:25 The Valley of Death and the benefit cliffs 06:21 The working poor 07:50 Childcare 09:10 $100,000 used to mean something different12:10 The precarity line13:10 How we got here: tax code changes and the gaslighting about taxes and the 1%16:30 What's the solution?18:01 Implications of fixing the problem21:40 Why economists reacted so viscerally24:18 Sentiment analysis 26:35 Revealing what academics have been missing28:34 The affordability crisis vs inflation debate31:35 We need a different framework for poverty32:47 Where this is headed if nothing changes34:45 Political implications 39:09 What Mike plans to do about it40:35 Markets and passive investing momentum46:41 Wrap up and where to find Mike Green

Zed Francis poses a critical question for 2026: can the world still finance growth? He observes a shift from a decade of calm to an "exciting fixed income market" in the past 18 months, leading to an acceleration of long-term project financing. Zed delves into global central bank rate cutting activities, noting the U.S. lags behind other nations. He touches on Japan's potential shift from exporting capital to hiking rates. He also analyzes the U.S. labor market data, suggesting investors may be misreading the extent of future easing.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.Is the Santa Claus Rally real, or is it just another Wall Street myth that gets recycled every December? That is exactly what this video digs into. Instead of hype, wishful thinking, or seasonal superstition, this breakdown looks at what the Santa Claus Rally actually is, how it is defined, and why traders get themselves into trouble when they treat it like a guaranteed payday.You will hear why the Santa Claus Rally is technically real in a narrow statistical sense, covering a specific window at the end of December and the start of January. You will also see why that does not mean markets owe you anything just because the calendar flips. This is where most traders get it wrong. They confuse historical tendencies with rules, and that mindset is how accounts get wrecked.The discussion goes deeper than surface-level stats. You will see how rallies can still happen inside downtrends, why a short pop does not magically fix a bad year, and how dangerous it is to pin hopes, prayers, and holiday spending plans on a few trading days. There is also a practical walkthrough of how to think like a professional investor instead of reacting emotionally to red and green days.Half the value here is not about the Santa Claus Rally at all. It is about process. Trading does not have to be exciting, stressful, or time-consuming. When you have a real plan, decisions get boring in the best possible way. That is how professionals operate. Check signals, manage risk, execute when needed, and then move on with your life.In the middle of the video, the focus shifts to real-world execution and discipline. Positions are reviewed, exits are checked, and the result is simple. No sell signals. No new entries. No panic. That calm approach is not accidental. It is the outcome of following a structured system instead of chasing noise.Here is what you will walk away with after watching:✅ What the Santa Claus Rally actually measures and why it exists✅ Why seasonal patterns are not trading signals✅ How rallies can still occur inside bearish trends✅ Why having a plan beats guessing every single day✅ How professionals manage positions without obsessingThere is also an important mindset shift toward the end. Markets do not care how much attention you give a stock. CEOs do not care how many hours you stare at their charts. Profits follow price and rules, not obsession. The goal is to save time, reduce stress, and let your strategy do the heavy lifting.If you want to trade with structure instead of emotion, this video lays out exactly why that matters. Subscribe to the OVTLYR channel for more breakdowns like this, market structure insights, and practical trading education designed to help you think clearly when everyone else is panicking.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains the significance of the Fed's decision to resume buying $40 billion of Treasury bills monthly. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the Fed's decision last week and what it means for stocks.It's Monday, December 15th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Last week's Fed meeting provided incremental support for our positive 2026 outlook on equities. The Fed delivered on its expected hawkish rate cut but also indicated it would do more if the labor market continues to soften. More important than the rate cut was the Fed's decision to restart asset purchases. More specifically, the Fed intends to immediately begin buying $40 billion of T-Bills per month to ensure the smooth operation of financial markets. Based on our conversations with investors prior to the announcement, this amount and timing of bill buying exceeded both consensus, and my own expectations. It also confirms a key insight I have been discussing for months and highlighted in our Year Ahead Outlook. First, the Fed is not independent of markets, and market stability often plays a dominant role in Fed policy beyond the stated dual mandate of full employment and price stability.Second, given the size of the debt and deficit, the Fed has an additional responsibility to assist Treasury in funding the government, and will likely continue to work more closely with Treasury in this regard.Finally, the decision to intervene in funding markets sooner and more aggressively than expected may not be ‘Quantitative Easing' as defined by the Fed. However, it is a form of debt monetization that directly helps to reduce the crowding out from the still growing Treasury issuance, especially as Treasury issues more Bills over Bonds.At the Fed's October meeting, it indicated some concern about tightening liquidity which I have discussed on this podcast as the single biggest risk to the bull market in stocks. Evidence of this tightness can be seen in the performance of asset prices most sensitive to liquidity, including crypto currencies and profitless growth stocks.While the Fed probably isn't too concerned about the performance of these asset classes, it does care about financial stability in the bond, credit and funding markets. This is what likely prompted it to restart asset purchases sooner and in a more significant way than most expected.We view this as a form of debt monetization as I mentioned, given the Treasury's objective to issue more bills going forward. More importantly, these purchases provide additional liquidity for markets, and in combination with rate cuts, suggest the Fed is likely less worried about missing its inflation target. This is very much in line with our run it hot thesis dating back to early 2021. As a reminder, accelerating inflation is positive for asset prices as long as it doesn't force the Fed's hand to take the punch bowl away like in 2022. Ironically, the risk in the near-term is that this larger than expected asset purchase program may be insufficient if the Fed has materially underestimated the level of reserves necessary for markets to operate smoothly. This is what happened in 2019 and why the Fed created the Standing Repo Facility in the first place. However, this is more of a tool that is used on an as-needed basis. What the markets may want or need is a larger buffer if the Fed has underestimated the level of reserves required for smoothly functioning financial markets.To be clear, I don't know what that level is, but I do believe markets will tell us if the Fed has done enough with this latest provision. Liquidity-sensitive asset classes and areas of the equity market will be important to watch in this regard, particularly given how weak they traded last Friday and this morning.Bottom line, the Fed has reacted to the markets' tremors over the past few months. Should markets wobble again, we are highly confident the Fed will once again react until things calm down. Last week's FOMC meeting only increases our conviction in that case and keeps us bullish over the next 6-12 months, and our 7800 price target on the S&P 500. We would welcome a correction in the short term as a buying opportunity. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!