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Which of the major home improvement stores came out on top this week? And why is Target investing $1 billion more in store upgrades? Plus, how did the Trump administration's loan to Constellation Energy affect its stock this week? Host Telis Demos discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Which of the major home improvement stores came out on top this week? And why is Target investing $1 billion more in store upgrades? Plus, how did the Trump administration's loan to Constellation Energy affect its stock this week? Host Telis Demos discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Crypto News: Bitcoin nears the bottom based on the RSI, Jim Cramer is bearish on Bitcoin and Crypto, and Japan approves $135.5 Billion stimulus package. Coinbase is acquiring Vector, an onchain trading platform built on Solana.Brought to you by
On today's episode, Clay Finck is joined by Andrew Brenton to discuss the inefficiencies in the stock market as well as his investment thesis on Floor & Decor and Kinsale Capital. Andrew Brenton is the CEO and co-founder of Turtle Creek Asset Management. Since its inception in 1998, Turtle Creek has achieved an average annual return of 18.8% versus just 8.7% for the S&P 500. $10,000 invested in their fund at inception would have grown to over $1 million, and had that money been invested in the market, it would have been worth around $95,000. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:28 - Andrew's thoughts on whether today's markets are becoming more or less efficient 00:13:08 - How today's market reminds him of the 1999 tech business 00:16:17 - His investment thesis and intrinsic value estimate of Floor & Decor 00:41:26 - Why Andrew is long Kinsale Capital in the fund 00:57:05 - Andrew's thoughts on weathering periods of underperformance relative to the broader market Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Cliff Asness's paper: The Less-Efficient Market Hypothesis. Check out Turtle Creek Asset Management. Related Episode: Listen to TIP592: Outperforming the Market Since 1998 w/ Andrew Brenton, or watch the video. Related Episode: TIP674: Outperforming the Market, Managing Risk, & Market Inefficiencies w/ Andrew Brenton, or watch the video. Follow Clay on X and LinkedIn. Related books mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Simple Mining Human Rights Foundation Unchained HardBlock Linkedin Talent Solutions reMarkable Netsuite Shopify Onramp Vanta Public.com Abundant Mines Horizon Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Bonus Episode for Nov. 21. Chipmakers are raking it in, but investors are getting nervous over “circular” AI semiconductor deals, the potential for an AI bubble and the pop that could follow. How grounded are those concerns about the AI boom? WSJ chips reporter Robbie Whelan discusses how the biggest names in chipmaking performed last quarter and what it could mean for markets. WSJ Heard on the Street writer Asa Fitch hosts this special bonus episode of What's News in Earnings, where we dig into companies' earnings reports and analyst calls to find out what's going on under the hood of the American economy. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Further Reading: Nvidia's Strong Results Show AI Fears Are Premature Nvidia Profits Soar, Countering Investor Jitters on AI Boom The AI Boom Is Looking More and More Fragile AMD Reports Sharply Higher Profits, Sales AMD Is an Increasingly Formidable Competitor to Nvidia Intel Surges as First Earnings Report Since U.S. Investment Shows Momentum Investors Love Intel Again. That Still Doesn't Solve Its Problems. TSMC Raises Revenue View Again Amid Global AI Investment Frenzy CoreWeave Reports Doubling of Revenue From AI Boom CoreWeave CEO Plays Down Concerns About AI-Spending Bubble Is the Flurry of Circular AI Deals a Win-Win—or Sign of a Bubble? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
As market murmurs about an AI bubble, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets offers some perspective on the impacts of the increasing demand for debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at a very different type of challenge for credit markets. It's Friday, November 21st at 6pm in Singapore. It has now been well over 15 years since the Global Financial Crisis shook the credit markets to its very core. It's hard to state just how extreme that period was. How many usual relationships and valuation approaches broke. It saw the worst credit losses in 80 years; I think, and hope, that this record will hold for the next 80. This shock, however, did have a silver lining for the credit market. After a crisis that was driven by bank balance sheets being too large and complex, they shrank and simplified. After companies saw capital markets suddenly shut, they increased their cash levels and often managed themselves more conservatively. The housing market long, the engine of debt growth in the U.S. saw much tighter lending standards and less overall borrowing. And so, all these trends had a common theme. Less bond supply. The credit market has seen numerous bouts of volatility in the years since. But these have generally been driven by concerns around the macro economy, like the eurozone crisis or COVID. Or they've been driven by companies' specific issues such as weakness around the oil sector in the mid 2010s or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. The idea that there would be too much borrowing for the level of demand and that this causes market weakness, well, it just hasn't been an issue. Until – that is – now. As we've discussed on this program, there is an enormous increase underway in the amount of capital expenditure by technology companies as they look to build out the infrastructure that supports their cloud and AI ambitions. Morgan Stanley Equity Research estimates that the largest spenders will commit about $470 billion of spending this year and [$]620 billion of spending next year. That's over $1 trillion of spending in just a two-year period. And it's still growing. We see a lot of momentum behind this spending, as the companies doing it have both enormous financial resources and see it as central to their future ambitions. But all this spending, however, will need to come from somewhere. These are often very profitable companies and so we think about half will be funded from their cash flows. The other half, well, debt markets will play a big role, especially as these companies are often highly rated and so have significant capacity to borrow more. And over the last few weeks, those spigots have now turned on. Several large technology hyperscalers have been borrowing tens of billions at a clip, and they've been doing this in short succession. There is some good news here. This new borrowing has been coming at a discount, with the issuers willing to pay investors a bit more than their existing debt to take it on. Demand in turn has been very high for this debt. And in most cases, this borrowing is still well below anything that could feasibly trigger rating agency action. But it is raising a very different type of issue after a long period where, generally speaking, investors have rarely worried about excessive supply – these are very large deals coming at very large discounts, and they are moving the market. If a AA rated company is in the market willing to pay the same as a current single A, well, that existing single A credit just simply looks less attractive. As far as problems go, we think this is a generally less scary one for the market to face but is a new challenge – something we haven't encountered for some time. And based on the aforementioned spending plans, it may be with us for some time to come. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
We analyze the crypto market's turbulence as Bitcoin falls below $90k, signaling potential bear market conditions. Also, it's DevConnect! We discuss investor sentiment, and examine key updates like Vitalik Buterin's roadmap for Ethereum and Aave's new app. Tune in for essential market updates! ------
The latest Fed minutes show a deeply divided committee but a clear signal: no December rate cut is coming. Markets reacted fast, sending Bitcoin tumbling to new lows as leveraged traders piled in and ETF investors pulled out. NLW unpacks what the minutes reveal about the economy, why rate expectations are shifting, and how this is shaping crypto's end-of-year outlook—including Kraken's IPO filing and a major Bitcoin bet from Abu Dhabi. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW
Unpacking the crypto market drawdown with Hyperion Decimus Co-Founder Chris Sullivan. In today's Markets Outlook, Hyperion Decimus Co-Founder Chris Sullivan joins CoinDesk's Andy Baehr to discuss the current crypto market drawdown, explaining why this period of "seller exhaustion" is the best time to accumulate hard assets. Plus, they dive into how trend-following strategies and derivatives skew prove the asset class is maturing and setting the stage for a vicious V-shaped recovery. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/coindesk - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption.Learn more at: geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/ - This episode was hosted by Andy Baehr.
Nov 21, 2025 – AI is rapidly transforming the U.S. economy and energy grid. Jim Puplava and Mark Mills discuss the surge in AI data centers, rising energy demand, skilled trade shortages, and how America can lead the global AI race amid major...
Nov 21, 2025 – Is gold sending an alarm for the broader outlook? Today, on Financial Sense Newshour, Jim Puplava interviews Ron William on how gold's rally is a “bell ringing” for investors, signaling a generational rotation from equities...
Larry Wade, Global Head of Compliance and Regulatory Relations for Crypto at PayPal, joined me at Chainlink SmartCon to discuss PayPal's crypto services and its PYUSD stablecoin.Brought to you by ✅ VeChain is a versatile enterprise-grade L1 smart contract platform https://www.vechain.org/
Crypto News: Bitcoin is oversold and the crypto market is in extreme fear signaling a reversal may come soon. Citigroup and Swift test payments with Circle USDC stablecoin. Coinbase Ethereum backed loans.Brought to you by
Hour 2 for 11/21/25 Drew and Brooke pray the Chaplet of Divine Mercy (1:00). Then, Peter Grandich covers markets, crypto (27:36), and the burden of debt (42:55). Links: https://petergrandich.com/ x.com/PeterGrandich
Stocks surge after the odds of a December rate cut climb. Bitcoin on pace for its worst week in three years. Plus, Alphabet's AI momentum is worrying some of its rivals. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
MRKT Matrix - Friday, November 21st Dow surges 500 points in big market rebound after steep sell-off this week (CNBC) One Fed official may have saved market from another rout. Why John Williams' remarks matter so much (CNBC) Fed won't get key inflation data before next rate decision as BLS cancels October CPI release (CNBC) Altman Memo Forecasts ‘Rough Vibes' Due to Resurgent Google (The Information) Google must double AI compute every 6 months to meet demand, AI infrastructure boss tells employees (CNBC) The DoorDash Problem: How AI browsers are a huge threat to Amazon (The Verge) Visa and Mastercard Are Moving Fast Into Stablecoins (The Information) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs
Unpacking the crypto market drawdown with Hyperion Decimus Co-Founder Chris Sullivan. In today's Markets Outlook, Hyperion Decimus Co-Founder Chris Sullivan joins CoinDesk's Andy Baehr to discuss the current crypto market drawdown, explaining why this period of "seller exhaustion" is the best time to accumulate hard assets. Plus, they dive into how trend-following strategies and derivatives skew prove the asset class is maturing and setting the stage for a vicious V-shaped recovery. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/coindesk - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption.Learn more at: geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/ - This episode was hosted by Andy Baehr.
My guest today is Cosmo Jiang, Partner at Pantera Capital. Pantera was one of the earliest institutional voices to embrace digital asset treasury companies, or DATs, and helped catalyze the Solana DAT wave. We begin by unpacking the DAT investment thesis using a traditional fundamental investing framework. We then discuss the role of DATs in the crypto-ecosystem, the convergence of crypto and traditional finance, and why Solana is their largest position. Please enjoy this conversation with Cosmo Jiang. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:04) Introduction to Digital Asset Treasury Companies (DATs) (00:01:44) Understanding the Role of DATs in the Crypto Ecosystem (00:02:48) The Investment Thesis Behind DATs (00:04:13) Comparing DATs to Traditional Financial Models (00:06:59) MicroStrategy's Strategy and Performance (00:09:53) Active Management vs. Passive Investment in DATs (00:13:40) Pantera Capital's Journey with DATs (00:16:51) The Rise of Solana DATs (00:20:20) Advocating for Solana and the Role of Spokespersons (00:22:46) Guiding Investors on Solana Exposure (00:23:28) Exploring AI Investment Strategies (00:24:10) The Role of ETFs in Digital Asset Management (00:25:19) Active Management vs. Spot Investments (00:25:53) The Future of Digital Asset Treasuries (00:27:43) The Intersection of TradFi and Crypto (00:29:24) Governance and Decentralization in Crypto (00:33:22) Solana: A Promising Layer 1 Blockchain (00:43:21) Current State and Future of Crypto Markets Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Steve Gruber discusses news and headlines
Futures are trying to rebound after a historic market swing wiped out more than $2.7 trillion in value. Plus, Nvidia looks to recover after a sharp single session drop. And later, crypto slides to its lowest levels since early April as we break down what's driving the sell-off. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
As worries about the US consumer intensify, what's the outlook for earnings and for the holiday shopping season – and are there now opportunities in some of these beaten-down stocks? Scott Feiler, consumer sector specialist in Global Banking & Markets, discusses with Chris Hussey on the Goldman Sachs trading floor. Recorded on November 18, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
HOST: Mark Longo, The Options Insider CO-HOST: Henry Schwartz, Cboe Global Markets CO-HOST: Mike Tosaw, St. Charles Wealth Management In this episode, the hosts tackle volatile market movements, significant options trades, and market strategies. The discussion spans from fresh options activity in under-the-radar stocks like Garrett Motion and Topgolf to the broader implications of major movements in indices and popular stocks such as Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon. The hosts also explore the regulation and impact of sports betting on financial markets, the introduction of new indexes like the Mag 10, and predictions for market behavior heading toward 2026.
Grok and AIGolfClick StickFull Swing Golf MonitorFairway ~60%, 8ft putt 50%, green in Regulation: 175-200yds = 50%. 150-175yds = 63%TrumpBig Dinner with Trump and moguls. Ronaldo. Elon. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi ArabiaTrump with Mamdani“Shared purpose of serving New Yorkers and how to help with affordability”Fascist? INSPIRINGPolitical AbsurdityMy Post on X. Politicians and Investing"They've got the WORST policies. But I don't talk about them. Because if I talk about it, they might change." Larry Summers - Secretary of Treasury. Summers resigned his seat on the OpenAI board. Then Harvard announced it would take a fresh look at his and other faculty members' ties to Epstein.The immediate cause of Summers's undoing was the release of a passel of messages in which he asked advice from his friend Epstein on “getting horizontal” with a woman he was pursuing.“She's already beginning to sound needy :) nice,” Epstein notedMarketsBought: Tesla Down 20% Meta Down 26% VOO Down ~5%Bitcoin$125,000 in October$87,000 todayDown $38k or 30%My Financial AcronymsFATMAANN. Up 160% (85% without Nvidia), compared to S&P 57%Facebook, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Netflix, NvidiaTAMPANBorn: Nov 6, 2025Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Palantir, Apple, NvidiaNVIDIANVIDIA Earnings Q3 2025Record revenue for the third quarter ended October 26, 2025, of $57.0 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and up 62% from a year ago.AI Build, Tesla, NvidiaUS Saudi Investment Forum. Full interview here. Elon and Jensen Huang. Play at 7.37Work will be optional. Elon Musk says if current AI and robotics trends continue "money will stop being relevant in the future." Then to Jensen. HahahaPlay at 14.50. Elon and Jenson announcing 500 mw or gw? Gazillion $'s. HaHaHa Play at 18.35. AI in Space. Netflix Per WSJ Bids for Warner Brothers. At the same time, Warner Discovery continues to move forward with plans to separate its assets into two companies: one to house its studios and streaming business, and the other comprising its cable networksStock Split. 10:1RecommendationsGet a hobbyRestrung my guitarWriting a rhythm, lead and lyrics to a song
Gabriel Weintraub studies how digital markets evolve. In that regard, he says platforms like Amazon, Uber, and Airbnb have already disrupted multiple verticals through their use of data and digital technologies. Now, they face both the opportunity and the challenge of leveraging AI to further transform markets, while doing so in a responsible and accountable way. Weintraub is also applying these insights to ease friction and accelerate results in government procurement and regulation. Ultimately, we must fall in love with solving the problem, not with the technology itself, Weintraub tells host Russ Altman on this episode of Stanford Engineering's The Future of Everything podcast.Have a question for Russ? Send it our way in writing or via voice memo, and it might be featured on an upcoming episode. Please introduce yourself, let us know where you're listening from, and share your question. You can send questions to thefutureofeverything@stanford.edu.Episode Reference Links:Stanford Profile: Gabriel WeintraubConnect With Us:Episode Transcripts >>> The Future of Everything WebsiteConnect with Russ >>> Threads / Bluesky / MastodonConnect with School of Engineering >>> Twitter/X / Instagram / LinkedIn / FacebookChapters:(00:00:00) IntroductionRuss Altman introduces guest Gabriel Weintraub, a professor of operations, information, and technology at Stanford University.(00:03:00) School Lunches to Digital PlatformsHow designing markets in Chile led Gabriel to study digital marketplaces.(00:03:57) What Makes a Good MarketOutlining the core principles that constitute a well-functioning market.(00:05:29) Opportunities and Challenges OnlineThe challenges associated with the vast data visibility of digital markets.(00:06:56) AI and the Future of SearchHow AI and LLMs could revolutionize digital platforms.(00:08:15) Rise of Vertical MarketplacesThe new specialized markets that curate supply and ensure quality.(00:10:23) Winners and Losers in Market ShiftsHow technology is reshaping industries from real estate to travel.(00:12:38) Government Procurement in ChileApplying market design and AI tools to Chile's procurement system.(00:15:00) Leadership and AdoptionThe role of leadership in modernizing government systems.(00:18:59) AI in Government and RegulationUsing AI to help governments streamline complex bureaucratic systems.(00:21:45) Streamlining Construction PermitsPiloting AI tools to speed up municipal construction-permit approvals.(00:23:20) Building an AI StrategyCreating an AI strategy that aligns with business or policy goals.(00:25:26) Workforce and ExperimentationTraining employees to experiment with LLMs and explore productivity gains.(00:27:36) Humans and AI CollaborationThe importance of designing AI systems to augment human work, not replace it.(00:28:26) Future in a MinuteRapid-fire Q&A: AI's impact, passion and resilience, and soccer dreams.(00:30:39) Conclusion Connect With Us:Episode Transcripts >>> The Future of Everything WebsiteConnect with Russ >>> Threads / Bluesky / MastodonConnect with School of Engineering >>>Twitter/X / Instagram / LinkedIn / Facebook Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Mark Dowding, CIO for our BlueBay fixed income platform, and Mike Reed, Head of Global Financial Institutions, discuss an eventful year in global markets. From President Trump's tariffs (and rollback of tariffs) to the ongoing AI boom, LDP leader Sanae Takaichi's recent historic prime ministerial win in Japan, and high-profile bankruptcies in the US autos sector, there's a lot to discuss as we head into year-end.
Live from Morgan Stanley's Asian Pacific Summit, our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains why micro trends are likely to be more on focus than macro shocks next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, coming to you from the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit underway in Singapore. Much of the client conversation at the summit was about the market outlook for 2026. In the last few days, you've heard from my colleagues about our outlook for the global economy, equities and cross asset markets. On today's podcast, I will focus on the outlook and key themes ahead for the global fixed income market. It's Thursday, November 20th at 10am in Singapore. Last year, the difficulty of predicting policy really complicated our task. This year brings its own challenges. But what we see is micro trends driving the markets in ways that adapt to a generally positive stance on risk. Our economists' base case sees continued disinflation and growth converging towards potential by 2027, with the possibility that the potential itself improves. Notably, they present upside scenarios exploring stronger demand and rising productivity, while the downside case remains relatively benign. The U.S. remains pivotal, and the U.S. led shocks – positive and negative – should drive outcomes for the global economy and markets in 2026, In 2025, the combination of a resilient U.S. consumer supported by healthy balance sheets and rising wealth alongside robust AI driven CapEx has underpinned growth and helped avoid recession despite the headwinds of trade policy. These same dynamics should continue to support the baseline outlook in 2026, even though the path will be likely uneven. The Fed faces a familiar conundrum softening labor markets versus solid spending. The baseline assumes cuts to neutral as unemployment rises, followed by a recovery in the second half. Outside the U.S., most economies trend towards potential growth and neutral policy rates by end of 2026, but the timing and the trajectory vary. And as in recent years, global outcomes will likely hinge on U.S.-led effects and their spillovers. Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves. A front-loaded rally as the Fed cuts 50 basis points, pushing 10-year yields lower by mid-year before drifting higher into the fourth quarter. Curve steepening remains our high conviction call, especially two stents curve. The dollar follows a similar arc, softening mid-year, and then rebounding into the year end. AI financing moves to the forefront putting credit markets in focus, a topic that has come up repeatedly in every single meeting I've had in Singapore so far. So, from unsecured to structured and securitized credit in both public markets and private markets, credit will likely play a central role in enabling the next wave of AI related investments. Our credit and securitized credit strategists see data center financing in 2026 dominated by investment rate issuance. While fundamentals in corporate and securitized credit remain solid, the very scale of issuance ahead points to spread widening investment rate and in data center related ABS. Carry remains a key driver for credit returns, but dispersion should rise. Segments relatively insulated from the AI related supply such as U.S. high yield, agency brokerage backed securities, non-agency CMBS and RMBS are poised to outperform. We favor agency MBS and senior securitized tranches over U.S. investment grade, especially as domestic bank demand for agency MBS returns post finalization of the Basel III. 2025 was a tough year to navigate, and while we are constructive on 2026, it won't be a walk in the park. The challenges ahead look different. Less about macro shocks, more about micro shifts and market nuance. More details in our outlooks published just a few days ago. Thanks for listening If you like the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Exploring the recent wave of crypto ETP approvals with Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg. In today's Market Outlook, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg joins CoinDesk Data and Indices President, David LaValle to discuss the massive, positive shift in the regulatory landscape, including the SEC's new embrace of innovation and free-market principles for the recent wave of crypto ETP approvals. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/coindesk - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption.Learn more at: geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/ - This episode was hosted by David LaValle.
In this episode, we discuss the rising backlash to last week's comments about Nick Fuentes, the distinction between personal judgment and deplatforming, and the broader question of what ideas belong in public discourse. We explore the failures of remedial education across major universities, the collapsing academic standards that allow students to advance without basic literacy and numeracy, and the systemic incentives that push institutions to “get students through” rather than educate them. We examine the roots of the public-school crisis, the role of property-tax funding, the constraints of unionized pay structures, and why market incentives and genuine school choice may be the only workable path forward. We also revisit lessons from the Soviet Union, grocery-store abundance, and what markets reveal about human flourishing in ways central planning never can. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 01:19 The Camino Story and Unexpected Love of Hiking 05:03 Walking Ancient Roman Roads with Modern Tech 07:50 Criticism, Free Speech, and the Nick Fuentes Debate 13:24 Where to Draw the Line on Platforming Extremists 14:49 The Difference Between Preference and Censorship 18:43 Foolishness of the Week: University of Arizona AI Prompting Class 20:13 College Remediation and the Math Skills Crisis 23:08 The Collapse of Writing Standards in Higher Education 24:31 Why Students Aren't Being Educated Before College 29:08 Public Schools, Property Taxes, and Unequal Outcomes 33:53 Why Money and Teacher Quality Don't Correlate 35:34 School Choice, Competition, and Market Incentives 37:02 Why Centralized Solutions Don't Work in Education 39:50 Markets, Feedback Loops, and Real Accountability 46:11 Closing Thoughts and Listener Send-Off 47:33 Aftershow: Khrushchev, Yeltsin, and the Grocery Store Lesson 53:51 The Power of Markets: Food, Abundance, and Freedom Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Markets breathing a sigh of relief after Nvidia's blockbuster earnings:Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber broke down the report this hour with longtime tech investor Dan Niles - before getting into the macro picture with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who says rates need to stay restrictive here. Plus: it's Liberty Media's investor day - the media company behind brands like Sirius XM to Formula 1 - and Sara is live on the scene in Las Vegas ahead of a huge F1 Grand Prix this weekend. Hear Chairman John Malone's take on the business, the future of cable, biggest regrets, and whether he would ever retire. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce joined me to discuss the SEC's new approach towards the crypto asset class.Topics: - Project Crypto- Altcoin ETFs & Staking in ETFs - Ripple XRP Case - Tokenization and 24/7 markets - Digital Asset Treasury companies - Memecoins and Liquid Staking not securities Brought to you by
Markets rise and fall—but not all cycles tell the same story. What do those ups and downs really mean for your investments?Scripture reminds us in Ecclesiastes 3:1, “To everything there is a season, a time for every purpose under heaven.” Just as God designed natural cycles—the sun, the tides, the seasons—financial markets also move through cycles. While less predictable, these patterns help us understand where we are in the investing journey and how to prepare wisely for what's ahead.According to Mark Biller, Executive Editor at Sound Mind Investing (SMI), the two most common market cycles are known as bull markets (when prices rise) and bear markets (when prices fall). But within those categories lie two distinct types of trends: cyclical and secular.Cyclical vs. Secular: What's the Difference?“The terms might sound fancy,” says Biller, “but they really describe short-term versus long-term cycles.”Cyclical markets are the short-term ups and downs—periods that might last a few months to a few years.Secular markets are the broader, long-term trends that can span decades—often between 10 and 40 years.Think of it like waves on the ocean. Cyclical markets are the smaller waves that move in and out, while secular markets are the larger tides that shape the shoreline over time.Learning from History: Market ExamplesFrom 1968 to 1982, the S&P 500 was essentially flat—a 15-year stretch where inflation eroded nearly 60% of investors' purchasing power. That's what economists call a secular bear market—a long-term period of little to no progress.Yet within that broader season, there were multiple shorter-term bull and bear cycles. Investors who recognized those patterns could navigate the market with more perspective and less panic.The same was true from 2000 to 2009, another decade of overall stagnation in U.S. stocks. “But even then,” Biller notes, “we saw two cyclical bear markets with a five-year bull market sandwiched between them.”The takeaway? Even in long-term downturns, some shorter-term opportunities and recoveries keep markets moving forward over time.Why It Matters—Especially for Bond InvestorsUnderstanding these cycles isn't just an academic exercise. “It's actually more helpful when it comes to bonds than stocks,” Biller explains.That's because bond markets move in much longer secular cycles. From 1982 to 2021, the U.S. enjoyed a 40-year secular bull market in bonds as interest rates steadily declined from 15% to near zero. But since 2020, that trend has reversed. “Interest rates have been rising again,” Biller says, “and that's led to negative returns for many bond investors over the last five years.”This shift could signal the beginning of a secular bear market for bonds—a long period in which rising interest rates make it harder for bonds to perform well.Rethinking the Classic 60/40 PortfolioFor decades, the “60/40” portfolio—60% stocks and 40% bonds—was the gold standard for balanced investing. But in today's environment, that mix may need to evolve.“At Sound Mind Investing (SMI), we've reduced our bond allocation to around 30%,” Biller explains. “We haven't abandoned bonds altogether, but we're diversifying beyond them.”That diversification includes strategies like:Dynamic asset allocation—adjusting investments as market conditions shiftGold and commodities—as hedges against inflationReal estate and energy stocks—for long-term growth potentialAlternative assets like Bitcoin (in small doses), to add further varietyBuilding a Portfolio That Endures Every SeasonWhether markets are bullish or bearish, cyclical or secular, the goal remains the same: build a portfolio that's resilient and rooted in wisdom.Biller's encouragement for long-term investors is simple:“We're not advocating for dramatic changes, but rather thoughtful diversification. The goal is to build portfolios you can stick with through every kind of market season.”That perspective echoes a deeper truth for believers: our ultimate security isn't found in market trends but in God's unchanging character. Markets may rise and fall, but His promises endure forever.Faith, Patience, and PerspectiveUnderstanding both short- and long-term market cycles helps us invest with patience, discipline, and faith—trusting that God is sovereign over every season, financial or otherwise.As Proverbs 21:5 reminds us, “The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty.”In every bull and bear market, we're called to plan wisely, give generously, and trust deeply—knowing that the One who holds the future also holds us.For more practical investing insights and biblical wisdom, visit SoundMindInvesting.org.On Today's Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions:I'm nearing retirement with no debt and some investment savings, but I don't have a pension. Would it make sense to use part of my investments to buy an annuity for guaranteed monthly income in addition to Social Security?I'm in my 70s, retired, and divorced, and much of my income goes toward alimony. How can I balance saving for emergencies while still giving more to the Lord's work, which I see as the greater reward?Resources Mentioned:Faithful Steward: FaithFi's Quarterly Magazine (Become a FaithFi Partner)Sound Mind Investing (SMI)Bulls and Bears, Cyclical and Secular (SMI Article by Mark Biller and Joseph Slife)SMI Dynamic Asset Allocation Model StrategyWisdom Over Wealth: 12 Lessons from Ecclesiastes on MoneyLook At The Sparrows: A 21-Day Devotional on Financial Fear and AnxietyRich Toward God: A Study on the Parable of the Rich FoolFind a Certified Kingdom Advisor (CKA)FaithFi App Remember, you can call in to ask your questions every workday at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. You can also visit FaithFi.com to connect with our online community and partner with us as we help more people live as faithful stewards of God's resources. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Exploring the recent wave of crypto ETP approvals with Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg. In today's Market Outlook, Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg joins CoinDesk Data and Indices President, David LaValle to discuss the massive, positive shift in the regulatory landscape, including the SEC's new embrace of innovation and free-market principles for the recent wave of crypto ETP approvals. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms and no prepayment penalties. They have the lowest rates in the industry at 8.91%, allowing you to access instant cash or buy more Bitcoin without triggering a tax event. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/coindesk - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption.Learn more at: geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/ - This episode was hosted by David LaValle.
How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the “floor and ceiling” of overnight rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds Decline 4:06 - Markets Under Pressure; Setting Up for Rally 10:29 - Markets' Post-Nvidia Relief Valve 15:53 - Oracle, CoreWeave, and CDS's Explained 18:24 - Is There Enough Credit to Fund AI Buildouts? 20:30 - Financial Markets are Like Consumers - they'll find the money 22:16 - Begging for ETF's - Be careful what you ask for 25:20 - Centralized Financial Markets are Swallowing BitCoin 28:24 - How the Fed Controls Liquidity 30:11 - Why is There Stress in the Liquidity Markets? 37:18 - The Linkage Between Liquidty & Function of Economy 39:04 - The Fed is Closer to QE Than Anyone Thinks 39:54 - Today's YouTube Poll 41:14 - What Will Markets Do Today?
How does the Federal Reserve actually supply liquidity to the financial system? And why have markets become so dependent on the Fed since 2008? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down the complete Fed liquidity toolkit—from QE and QT to the Standing Repo Facility, IORB, ON RRP, OMO, and the Discount Window—and explain why these tools create the "floor and ceiling" of overnight rates. 0:00 - INTRO 0:18 - Nvidia Kill It; Rate Cut Odds Decline 4:06 - Markets Under Pressure; Setting Up for Rally 10:29 - Markets' Post-Nvidia Relief Valve 15:53 - Oracle, CoreWeave, and CDS's Explained 18:24 - Is There Enough Credit to Fund AI Buildouts? 20:30 - Financial Markets are Like Consumers - they'll find the money 22:16 - Begging for ETF's - Be careful what you ask for 25:20 - Centralized Financial Markets are Swallowing BitCoin 28:24 - How the Fed Controls Liquidity 30:11 - Why is There Stress in the Liquidity Markets? 37:18 - The Linkage Between Liquidty & Function of Economy 39:04 - The Fed is Closer to QE Than Anyone Thinks 39:54 - Today's YouTube Poll 41:14 - What Will Markets Do Today?
Markets have been under pressure lately—especially in Technology—as investors worry about stretched valuations, widening credit default swaps, and whether the AI trade is finally losing steam. Despite the noise, this remains a minor, healthy pullback of roughly 3%, not a full-blown correction. In this pre-market update, we break down why the decline feels worse than it is, why the next two weeks of November historically favor stronger performance, and how mutual fund distributions in December may create volatility before a potential year-end rally. Nvidia is today's major market mover. After an extraordinary run from below $100 in April to nearly $186 today, the stock has pulled back to support but remains in a solid long-term uptrend. If you've been waiting for an entry point, the current setup may offer one, with $200 as a logical near-term target. We also analyze key technical levels for the S&P 500: • A close above the 50-DMA keeps the bullish trend intact • A break lower shifts focus to the 100-DMA • Four straight down days have worked off October's overbought surge, increasing odds of a bounce toward 6,700–6,750 If you didn't harvest profits earlier, selling into weakness now may not be ideal. Use the next rally to rebalance risk and manage exposures. Stay focused. Stay disciplined. Keep perspective. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bb8BeVp7ID8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Nvidia #AITrade #SP500 #MarketUpdate
Listen to Daily Global #News from Grecian Echoes WNTN 1550 AM - Nvidia reported record revenue and strong guidance, investors breathe a sigh of relief - Trump has drafted a 28-point peace plan for Ukraine Russia -
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Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders called the September jobs a "mixed bag" report without having October's data to follow it up. She notes that an economy heading in an uncertain direction, paired with a retail trader-dominated market, will create "whipsaw" action for the foreseeable future. Mike Townsend adds to the lack of economic clarity creating a troubling situation for the Fed's interest Rate decision in December. He argues there won't be total economic clarity until January. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
"Welcome to the melt up," says Kevin Hincks, as markets soared ahead of Thursday's opening bell. It's no secret that Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings served as the catalyst, with leadership appearing to quell fears of an A.I. bubble popping. Kevin also talks about the September jobs report and how it emphasizes the Fed's focus on the labor market. He makes the case a December interest rate cut will come back to the table. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Ton Strategy CEO Veronika Kapustina joins Diane King Hall at the NYSE set to discuss the crypto markets. Veronika provides her perspective on recent weakness in the overall crypto space. Her company invests in a native token currency for the Telegram network called Toncoin. Veronika describes the unique setup and access Toncoin has with its 1 billion Telegram users. She believes it has been massively undervalued, but cites recent U.S. adoption as a possible catalyst for the Toncoin crypto token. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
From Wall Street to Main Street, the latest on the markets and what it means for your money. Updated regularly on weekdays, featuring CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business newsmakers. Anchored and reported by CNBC's Jessica Ettinger. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Hour 2 of JJ & Alex with Jeremiah Jensen and Alex Kirry. Bill Bender, CFP writer for the Sporting News LeBron James returns for the Lakers as the Jazz fall in LA The Top 10: Markets for World Series Viewership
JJ & Alex with Jeremiah Jensen and Alex Kirry on November 19, 2025. Latest CFP Rankings; BYU and Utah are the first two out Utah Mammoth lose in overtime against the Sharks Would You Rather? Bill Bender, CFP writer for the Sporting News LeBron James returns for the Lakers as the Jazz fall in LA The Top 10: Markets for World Series Viewership Scott Springer, covers Cincinnati football for the Cincinnati Enquirer NFL Blitz: Browns QB Shedeur Sanders to make first NFL start Best and Worst of the Day
Nvidia and the rest of the market fail to hold on to post-earnings gains. Morgan Stanley lays out how they are thinking about the stock. Then the CEO of Liberty Media. His first broadcast interview since taking the job almost a year ago. Liberty Media owns and invests in several media, entertainment and sports assets - including Formula 1, MotoGP, and Live Nation. And the CEO of Fanatics, Michael Rubin. Breaking the news the company is going to get into prediction markets in the next few weeks. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Physical differentials in the North Sea crude market and wider Atlantic basin have reached multiyear lows amid high freight rates and market length in the region. While high freight rates are often expected in the last quarter of the year, oversupply and market structure have also come into play. In this podcast, Emma Kettley, S&P Global Energy's associate director, price reporting, is joined by senior crude oil reporters Natasha Tan and George Delaney to dig into how these fundamentals are impacting the North Sea and West African crude markets.
Nvidia beats expectations in Q3 earnings and guides beyond projections for 2026, sending shares up 5 per cent in after-hours trading. CEO Jensen Huang remains sanguine about over-stretched A.I. valuations. A relief rally moves through global equities and Bitcoin. Chip makers in Asia see shares rise as a result while European and U.S. futures point higher for the session ahead. President Trump slams Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over inflation and urges Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to help bring down interest rates. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he continues to hold on to an out-of-consensus view of a growth positive 2026, despite near-term risks.Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today I'll discuss our outlook for 2026 that we published earlier this week. It's Wednesday, Nov 19th at 6:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. 2026 is a continuation of the story we have been telling for the past year. Looking back to a year ago, our U.S. equity outlook was for a challenging first half, followed by a strong second half. At the time of publication, this was an out of consensus stance. Many expected a strong first half, as President Trump took office for his second term. And then a more challenging second half due to the return of inflation. We based our differentiated view on the notion that policy sequencing in the new Trump administration would intentionally be growth negative to start. We likened the strategy to a new CEO choosing to ‘kitchen sink' the results in an effort to clear the decks for a new growth positive strategy. We thought that transition would come around mid-year. The U.S. economy had much less slack when President Trump took office the second time, compared to the first time he came into office. And this was the main reason we thought it was likely to be sequenced differently. Earnings revisions breadth and other cyclical indicators were also in a phase of deceleration at the end of 2024. In contrast, at the beginning of 2017—when we were out of consensus bullish—earnings revisions breadth and many cyclical gauges were starting to reaccelerate after the manufacturing and commodity downturn of 2015/2016. Looking back on this year, this cadence of policy sequencing did broadly play out—it just happened faster and more dramatically than we expected. Our views on the policy front still appear to be out of consensus. Many industry watchers are questioning whether policies enacted this year will ultimately lead to better growth going forward, especially for the average stock. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot' thesis. There's another factor embedded in our more constructive take. April marked the end of a rolling recession that began three years prior. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it's still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. That is the opportunity. The missing ingredient for the typical broadening in stock performance that happens in a new business cycle is rate cuts. Normally, the Fed would have cut rates more in this type of weakening labor market. But due to the imbalances and distortions of the COVID cycle, we think the Fed is later than normal in easing policy, and that has held back the full rotation toward early cycle winners. Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. This is a near-term risk to our bullish 12-month forecasts should delays in the data continue, or lagging labor releases do not corroborate the recent weakness in non-govt-related jobs data. In our view, this type of labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to ‘run it hot' means that, ultimately, the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. It's really just a question of timing. But that is a near-term risk for equity markets and why many stocks have been weaker recently. In short, we believe a new bull market began in April with the end of a rolling recession and bear market. Remember the S&P [500] was down 20 percent and the average S&P stock was down more than 30 percent into April. This narrative remains underappreciated, and we think there is significant upside in earnings over the next year as the recovery broadens and operating leverage returns with better volumes and pricing in many parts of the economy. Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy. For the S&P 500, our 12-month target is now 7800 which assumes 17 percent earnings growth next year and a very modest contraction in valuation from today's levels. Our favorite sectors include Financials, Industrials, and Healthcare. We are also upgrading Consumer Discretionary to overweight and prefer Goods over Services for the first time since 2021. Another relative trade we like is Software over Semiconductors given the extreme relative underperformance of that pair and positioning at this point. Finally, we like small caps over large for the first time since March 2021, as the early cycle broadening in earnings combined with a more accommodative Fed provides the backdrop we have been patiently waiting for. We hope you enjoy our detailed report published earlier this week and find it helpful as you navigate a changing marketplace on many levels. Thanks for tuning in. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
In this episode of Money Moves, Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell dive deep into the economic landscape following the government reopening. They break down what the latest (and long-delayed) data tells us about inflation, unemployment, rate-cut probabilities, market psychology, crypto volatility, and the evolving dynamics of the housing market—including portable mortgages, 50-year loans, and the changing profile of the post-COVID consumer.From government dysfunction to AI's impact on job openings, distressed CRE, stock-market forecasts, crypto fear cycles, and the staggering amount of cash sitting on the sidelines, this episode is packed with real-world, data-driven insight to help investors navigate uncertain times with clarity and confidence.Topics Covered:Government reopening, shutdown damage, and the 43-day data blackoutJob losses, jobless claims, and AI's effect on hiringRate-cut probability and the Fed's upcoming decisionsWhy fear is spiking despite strong consumer balance sheetsMarket psychology and how retail investors get trappedCrypto's violent pullback—and why opportunity is risingTariffs, consumer habits, and the “post-COVID” buyerCommercial real-estate distress brewing for 202650-year mortgages, portable mortgages, and housing-market innovationWhy $7.6 trillion in cash is waiting to rush back into marketsPelosi's insane stock-market returns and debates on banning congressional tradingIf you're an investor wondering how to position yourself heading into the holiday season and into 2026, this episode is packed with must-know insights.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text "XRAY" to 844-447-1555
Real Vision's Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki are back to break down the charts and highlight their favorite Real Vision trade ideas before taking questions from the audience. Tune in every Wednesday at 1pm ET LIVE on Real Vision, YouTube, and X