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Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.
The ‘Greedflation' line is back, only it isn't coming from Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, or Joe Biden. With beef prices up nearly +13 percent over the last year, many are wondering why, and many are providing answers that don't pass the smell test. Fortunately for those of us on the Capital Record, first principles go a long way toward helping us sort this out. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
A few years ago, industry and political leaders embraced hydrogen as a solution to a laundry list of hard-to-abate decarbonization challenges — steel production, ammonia production, and more. But hydrogen failed to come down in costs and policymakers pulled back support. Ultimately, the bubble burst. So what does it take to drive down the costs of low-carbon hydrogen and rebuild momentum? In this episode, Shayle talks to Raffi Garabedian, co-founder and CEO of Electric Hydrogen. (Shayle is on the board of Electric Hydrogen and Energy Impact Partners, where Shayle is a partner, invests in the company). Shayle and Raffi cover topics like: Why the hype bubble burst: political pullback, high renewables costs driven by AI demand, and high CapEx The real cost problem: Why engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) costs have remained persistently high Competing approaches: Why Electric Hydrogen chose supersized electrolyzers over modular units The China question: Why hydrogen's EPC costs will limit the impact of cheap Chinese electrolyzers Real numbers: Realistic cost targets for fossil parity and Electric Hydrogen's current pricing Where hydrogen wins: Markets where Raffi says green hydrogen can achieve fossil parity by the early 2030s, including Brazilian fertilizer Resources: Latitude Media: is 45v guidance killing green hydrogen production? The Green Blueprint: Electric Hydrogen's bet on supersized electrolyzers Latitude Media: Electric Hydrogen is building through the market downturn Latitude Media: Hydrogen's narrow pathway to positive climate impacts Latitude Media: Why the Electric Hydrogen-Ambient merger is a sign of things to come Fill out our short podcast listener survey for a chance to win a $100 Amazon gift card. Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor. Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can't wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy's fuel cells, they don't have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com.
Crypto News: JPMorgan launches the first bank-issued USD deposit token, JPMD, on Coinbase's BASE. Canary Capital XRP ETF is officially effective after Nasdaq certified the listing, clearing XRPC for launch tomorrow at market open. Brought to you by
In this week's episode of Money Moves, Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell dives into one of the most critical and thought-provoking discussions of the year — how long-term debt, political ideology, and government policy are reshaping the American economy.With the government reopening and the markets reacting to a flood of new data, Matty breaks down the growing debate around 50-year mortgages, the rise of socialist-leaning policies, and what both mean for the future of capitalism, entrepreneurship, and personal wealth.He explores how expanding debt horizons could trap future generations, why entitlement culture threatens productivity, and how investors can navigate this shifting landscape of policy-driven markets. Beyond economics, Matty also reflects on mindset — how to stay empowered, self-reliant, and financially free in an era where dependency is being normalized.Episode Highlights:[00:01:00] The government reopens — what it means for markets and investor sentiment[00:04:30] 50-year mortgages — financial innovation or long-term debt trap?[00:09:45] The rise of socialism — economic implications and investor concerns[00:14:30] Capitalism vs. dependency — how culture shapes financial freedom[00:18:40] The real impact of government stimulus and debt expansion[00:23:10] How investors can protect themselves from policy-driven volatility[00:28:00] The long-term mindset — taking ownership of your wealth journeyEpisode Takeaways:50-year mortgages may offer affordability today but risk trapping future generations in permanent debt.Socialist-style policies create short-term relief but erode productivity, innovation, and long-term growth.Markets respond to stability, not politics — investors who stay long-term focused outperform the emotional majority.Financial independence is a mindset. You can't rely on the government to make you wealthy — only discipline, ownership, and action can.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text "XRAY" to 844-447-1555
Real Vision's Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki are back to break down the charts and highlight their favorite Real Vision trade ideas before taking questions from the audience. Tune in every Wednesday at 1pm ET LIVE on Real Vision, YouTube, and X
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
A new bill aims to end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history — and markets are already reacting. Akil breaks down why traders are cheering the return of economic data, what it means for the Fed's next rate decision, and why gold's rally might be telling a deeper story about what's coming in December.Register for our upcoming trading event at www.TierOnetrading.comYour Trading Coach - Akil
Brian from Santiment joined me to review the crypto market metrics such as sentiment, onchain data, and more for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and ZCash.
Crypto News: SoFi becomes first nationally chartered US bank to launch Bitcoin & crypto trading. Canary Capital XRP ETF could launch Thursday and Bitwise Chainlink ETF gets listed on DTCC. Brought to you by
In this episode of Insurance Shoptalk, host Eric Stein sits down with Terry McLean, CEO of SageSure, to discuss how the company has built one of the largest independent property insurance platforms serving catastrophe-exposed markets. Terry shares insights into navigating the hardest property market in decades, managing risk in wildfire and coastal regions, and balancing technology with hands-on underwriting and claims operations. From Florida's ENS market to California's wildfire challenges, this conversation reveals how disciplined underwriting, data-driven modeling, and long-term relationships with agents help SageSure thrive where others retreat. Tune in for a candid look at the future of homeowners insurance, reinsurance cycles, and what agents can do to succeed in high-risk markets. About Insurance Shoptalk Join host Eric Stein on a journey through the dynamic world of commercial property and casualty insurance. With over 25 years of experience in the industry, Eric brings a wealth of knowledge and insights to every episode. Insurance Shoptalk is your premier destination for in-depth discussions on the latest industry trends, technology impacts, interviews with leading experts, and much more. To learn more about Insurance Shoptalk, please visit https://insuranceshoptalk.com/ If you enjoyed this episode of Insurance Shoptalk, please like and subscribe, and be sure to click the notification bell to catch the next episode.
Markets opened weakly on Tuesday but finished in the green as Buy-the-Dip traders stepped back in. The S&P 500 bounced off its 50-DMA and is on the verge of a momentum buy signal, while relative strength continues to improve — a bullish sign for near-term market direction. Rotation remains the key theme: Energy (XLE) is starting to lift, even with oil prices steady. Natural gas could see rising demand as AI-driven data centers strain the power grid. Consumer Staples are beginning to recover as investors rotate toward defensive names. Lance Roberts explains how sector rotation is shaping market momentum — and what it means for portfolio positioning as breadth improves. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8dRFc_XWbPc&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarketToday #XLE #EnergyStocks #MarketRotation #InvestingStrategy
On this episode, Chris Coyne speaks with Michael Romero, Mikayla Novak, and Anna Claire Flowers about the enduring influence of Kenneth Boulding on how we understand peace and cooperation. Romero discusses his paper “Markets as a Peace Lab,” coauthored with Virgil Storr, which explains how markets act as spaces where individuals cultivate trust, empathy, and peaceful exchange. Novak joins to discuss her paper “Kenneth Boulding's The Image: A Cognitive Basis for Peace Entrepreneurship,” connecting Boulding's insights on human cognition to the creative work of fostering peace. In the final part of the episode, Coyne and Flowers reflect on their coauthored paper “The Family and the Stable Peace,” highlighting how the family serves as a training ground for the habits and relationships that sustain cooperation. Together, these conversations show how Boulding's vision of peace continues to shape research on economics, society, and human flourishing.This is the second episode in a short series of episodes that will feature a collection of authors who contributed to the volume 1, issue 2 of the Markets & Society Journal or to a forthcoming special issue from The Review of Austrian Economics.Dr. Michael R. Romero is Professor of Economics and Business at Thales College. Previously, he was an associate program director for Academic & Student Programs and a Research Fellow for the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. He is an alum of the Mercatus PhD Fellowship.Dr. Mikayla Novak is a Senior Fellow with the F.A. Hayek Program for Advanced Study in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. She is a contributing editorial board member of Cosmos + Taxis and recently was the editor of Liberal Emancipation: Explorations in Political and Social Economy (Springer Nature, 2025).Anna Claire Flowers is a PhD student in Economics at George Mason University and is currently a fellow in the Mercatus PhD Fellowship. Her research interests include family economics, in particular the economic significance of family relationships and the economic factors that influence family decision-making.Show Notes:Kenneth Boulding's book, Stable Peace (University of Texas Press, 1978)Kenneth Boulding's book, The Image: Knowledge in Life and Society (University of Michigan Press, 1956).Elise Boulding's book, Cultures of Peace (Syracuse University Press, 2000)Learning for Peace Initiative | United Nations Children's FundThe Review of Austrian EconomicsF.A. Hayek's book, The Sensory Order: An Inquiry into the Foundations of Theoretical Psychology (The University of Chicago Press, 1952)Gerald P. O'Driscoll and Mario Rizzo's book, The Economics of Time and Ignorance (Routledge, 1996)Israel Kirzner's book, The Meaning of the Market Process: Essays in the Development of Modern Austrian Economics (Routledge, 1992)If you like the show, please subscribe, leave a 5-star review, and tell others about the show! We're available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, and wherever you get your podcasts.Check out our other podcast from the Hayek Program! Virtual Sentiments is a podcast in which political theorist Kristen Collins interviews scholars and practitioners grappling with pressing problems in political economy with an eye to the past. Subscribe today!Follow the Hayek Program on Twitter: @HayekProgramFollow the Mercatus Center on Twitter: @mercatusCC Music: Twisterium
Market jitters over A.I. valuations persist. ‘Big Short' investor Michael Burry says hyper-scalers are overstating their earnings while Japan's Softbank sees its share price plunge following the sale of its stake in Nvidia. The company has pledged to double down on its OpenAI investment. Germany's Infineon hikes the FY forecast for its A.I. data centre revenue despite Q4 earnings coming in below expectations. CFO Sven Schneider is confident the A.I. boom will continue to drive the company's success. And in UK politics, a briefing war is raging with reports and counter-reports of a Labour leadership contest to oust Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer just a fortnight before his Chancellor's high-stakes budget.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Our Research and Investment Management analysts Michael Cyprys and Denny Galindo discuss how and why cryptocurrencies are transitioning from niche speculation to portfolio staples. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Cyprys: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Cyprys, Head of U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges for Morgan Stanley Research.Denny Galindo: And I'm Denny Galindo, Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.Michael Cyprys: Today we break down the forces making crypto more accessible and what this shift means for investors everywhere.It's Tuesday, November 11th at 10am in New York.We've seen cryptocurrencies move from the fringes of finance to being considered a legitimate part of mainstream asset allocation. Financial platforms, especially those serving institutional clients, are starting to integrate crypto more than ever.Denny, you've written extensively about the crypto market for some time now among your many jobs here at Morgan Stanley. So, from your perspective in wealth management, what are you hearing from retail clients about their growing interest in crypto?Denny Galindo: Yeah, we actually started writing about crypto back in 2017. We had our first explainer deck, and we started writing extensive educational reports in 2021. So, we've covered it for a while.Advisors who dabble in crypto typically had this one client. He asked a lot of questions about when they could do more. We also had some clients who were curious, maybe their neighbor made a lot of money, bought a new boat and they were like wondering, you know, what is this Bitcoin thing?Now, this year we've seen a sea change. I think it was the election really started it; the Genius Act, and some of the legislation also kind of added to it. Almost all this interest is really on Bitcoin only, although we also have gotten a decent amount of interest about stablecoins and how those might impact things. But it's really just the beginning and I think it's an area that's; it's not going to go away.Mike, on the institutional side, what trends are you seeing among asset managers and brokers in terms of crypto adoption integration?Michael Cyprys: So, we've seen a big move into the ETF space as large money managers make crypto easier to access for both retail and institutional investors. Now this comes on the back of the SEC approving the first spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs back in 2024. And since then, we've seen firms from BlackRock to Fidelity, Franklin, Invesco, and many others, including crypto native firms having launched spot Bitcoin ETFs and spot Ethereum ETFs. And these steps in the minds of many investors have legitimized crypto as an investible asset class.Most recently, we've seen the SEC adopt generic ETF listing standards for crypto ETFs that can make it easier to accelerate ETF launches in reduced regulatory frictions. And today the crypto ETF space is about $200 billion of assets under management and saw inflows of over [$]40 billion last year, over [$]45 billion so far this year – despite some of the near-term volatility. And most of the asset class today is in Bitcoin, single token ETFs, with BlackRock and Fidelity managing the largest ETFs in the space.Speaking of products, what types of crypto are retail investors most curious about? And why do those particular ones make sense for their portfolios?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head. The most popular products are really the Bitcoin products. We as a firm allowed solicitation in Bitcoin ETPs more than a year ago in brokerage accounts. We just expanded them to allow them in Advisory in October. So, we're still early days here. There really hasn't been that much interest in the other crypto products.Now when people think about this, there's three buckets here. There are some people that think of it like digital gold. And they're worried about inflation. They're worried about government deficits. And that's kind of the angle that they're approaching crypto from. A second group think of it like a venture capital, like a disruptive innovation in tech that's going after this big addressable market. And, you know, hopefully the penetration will rise in the future. And then the third bucket is really thinking [of it] out it as a diversifier. So, they're saying, ‘Hey, this thing is volatile. It doesn't match stocks, bonds, other assets. And so, I kind of want to use it for diversification.'Now, Mike, when you have these discussions with institutional clients, how do they view the risk and potential of these different cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: What's interesting with the crypto space is adoption started on the retail side with institutions now slowly beginning to explore allocations. And that's the opposite of what we've seen historically with institutions leaning in ahead of retail in areas, whether it's commodities or private markets. But it's still early days.On the institutional side, we're starting to see some pensions, endowments, foundations begin to make some small allocations to Bitcoin as a long-term inflation hedge. But keep in mind, institutions tend to make investments in the context of strategic asset allocations, often with a broader macro framework.Denny, you've written quite a bit about the four-year crypto cycle. Could you explain what that is and where you think we are in the current crypto cycle?Denny Galindo: Yeah, if you look at the data, you see a pretty clear trend of a four-year cycle. So, there's three up years and one down year, and it's been like clockwork, since Bitcoin was invented.Now when you see something like that, you always try to explain like: why is this happening? So, there's two kind of dominant explanations that we've seen. So, one's macro, one's micro. Now the macro version for crypto is really the M2 cycle. So, we see that M2 to that global M2 money supply has kind of accelerated and decelerated in four-year cycles, and Bitcoin tends to really match that cycle. It tends to accelerate when M2's accelerating and it tends to decline when it's decelerating or declining.But there's also this bottoms-up way of looking at it, and commodities are really the place we go to for that analysis. So, a lot of commodities, you know, could be coffee, could be oil – if something disrupts supply, you tend to get the shortage, you get the price moving up.Then you get commodity speculators piling in, adding leverage. And it'll just kind of go parabolic. At some point something pops the bubble, usually more supply, and then you get like a great depression. You get like an 80 percent draw down. All the leverage comes out and the whole thing crashes. So crypto has also followed that.Now, we break the four-year cycle into four seasons: spring, summer, fall, and winter. And each season has a different characteristic about which parts of the market work, which don't work, what things look like. We are in the fall season right now. And that tends to last about a year. We wrote a note last year on this. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it's the time you want to take your gains.But the debate is, you know, how long will this fall last? When will the next winter start? Or maybe this pattern won't even hold in the future. And so, this is the big debate in the crypto circles these days.And Mike, given the volatility, given the great depressions we talked about in Bitcoin with these, you know, 70-80 percent drawdowns, how do you see it fitting into institutional portfolios compared to other cryptocurrencies?Michael Cyprys: Compared to other cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin is still viewed as the flagship asset within the crypto space – just given higher adoption, greater liquidity, the sheer market value. It has longer history and better regulatory clarity as compared to other tokens. But given the volatility as you mentioned, and the early days nature of cryptocurrencies, adoption is still quite nascent amongst institutional investors.Some institutional investors view Bitcoin as digital gold or macro hedge against inflation and monetary debasement. It's also sometimes viewed as a low correlation diversifier within multi-asset portfolios. But even that's also been a debate in the marketplace too.As we look forward from here, crypto adoption within institutional portfolios could potentially expand as regulatory clarity establishes a clear framework for digital assets, right? We had the Genius Act recently that focused on stablecoins. Next up is market structure. There's a bill working its way through Congress.We've also had developments on the ETF side that lower[s] barriers for institutions to gain exposure there. Not only is it more accessible within traditional portfolios, but the ETF fits nicely into day-to-day workflow.So, bottom line is institutional views on Bitcoin and crypto are evolving, and how firms view Bitcoin – we think will depend upon the institution's objectives, their risk tolerance and portfolio context. And keep in mind that institutional allocations don't turn on a dime. They tend to be slower moving.Denny, do retail clients take a similar approach or are they more likely to take bigger bets?Denny Galindo: Our clients struggle with this question. And so, we get a lot of questions like, ‘Okay, I don't want to miss this. I'm a little nervous about it. What allocation should I use here?' And so, we go back to our three, kind of, typical investors when we try to answer this question. We really try and help people figure out where is equal weight.So, we wrote a note in February called “Are you Underweight Bitcoin?” And we have three different answers depending on how you're thinking of it. And, you know, there's a big debate. There's no clear answer. And that's not really where we want our clients. We want them to be smaller where they can have some exposure if they want it. Not everyone wants it, but if you do want it, you can have it. And it won't really dominate the volatility of the portfolio.Now, on another note, Mike, are you seeing legacy platforms start to offer crypto as well?Michael Cyprys: So crypto ETFs are generally available in self-directed brokerage accounts across the industry today. Schwab, for example, commented that their customers hold $25 billion in crypto ETFs, which is about, call it 20 percent share of the ETF space. But access to these crypto ETFs is a bit more restricted within the Advisor-led channel. But we're starting to see that broaden out for ETFs and eventually might see model portfolios with allocations toward crypto ETFs.But when you look at spot crypto trading, though, that generally remains out of reach of most legacy platforms. The key hurdle for that has been regulatory clarity and with a more crypto friendly administration that is changing here.So, Schwab, for example, acknowledged that they have the regulatory clarity needed and they're working towards launching their spot crypto trading platform in the first half of next year.On that topic, Denny, how do you view the merits of holding crypto directly versus through an exchange-traded product like ETFs?Denny Galindo: Yeah, I mean, our clients are mostly not day trading this product and kind of moving it back and forth.So, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer for them. The one issue is liquidity. And so, we're not used to thinking of this in; the U.S. equity markets are the most liquid markets. But in crypto, the crypto markets, the spot markets are actually more liquid than the equity markets.So, you get a lot of liquidity even after hours, even 24x7. And as other markets around the world kind of take the lead. But most of our investors aren't treating it that way. They're not day trading it, and they're really keeping it more like that digital gold allocation. And so, they just need to adjust the position size, you know, once a month, once a year maybe; just kind of buy and hold.But I wonder, you know, as more people get more comfortable, it could become more important in the future. So, it's an open question, but for now, the ETPs have been a pretty good answer here.Michael Cyprys: Fascinating space. Denny, thanks so much for taking the time to talk.Denny Galindo: It was great speaking with you, Mike.Michael Cyprys: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Inside Fight.ID and the UFC's partnership with Fight.ID Co-Founder James Zhang. In today's Markets Outlook, Fight.ID Co-Founder James Zhang joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie to discuss Fight.ID's unique partnership with the UFC. Plus, he shares how they plan to convert millions of combat sports spectators into stakeholders through digital collectibles, event participation, and a dedicated fan identity system. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - OwlTing (Nasdaq: OWLS) is building invisible rails for global payments. With OwlPay, businesses and users can bridge fiat and stablecoins, send money instantly across borders, and access stablecoin checkout at lower costs. Licensed worldwide, OwlTing delivers secure, compliant, and regulated infrastructure for the digital economy. Learn more at owlting.com. - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption. Learn more at: https://www.geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.
David devotes this week's Capital Record to the folly of the “game-changing” idea of a 50-year mortgage. He stands within first principles by allowing risk takers to freely transact, but points out the economic reality of how people who believe they get a cheaper house by paying for it over an extra 20 years are, well, wrong. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Nov 10, 2025 – Struggling with sleep? Discover how the lighting in your home might be subtly impacting your health in this enlightening discussion between Dr. Mike Haga and Jim Puplava, as they delve into the latest research on light spectrum and intensity...
Nov 11, 2025 – Curious about the future of U.S. housing? Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality, dissects the latest data and forecasts for the U.S. housing market. Dr. Hepp notes a continued slowdown in home price appreciation...
Asheesh Birla, CEO of Evernorth, interview. We discuss all the details of Evernorth's $1 billion XRP digital asset treasury.Topics: - Evernorth's mission as a XRP Treasury - Plans to go public on Nasdaq - How will XRP be purchased and will capital raise go beyond $1 billion - Preparing for a bear market - DATs vs ETFs Brought to you by
Crypto News: Scott Bessent says the US Treasury and IRS approve staking in crypto ETFs. The Senate Agriculture committee has released its long-awaited bipartisan crypto market structure discussion draft.Brought to you by
The Federal Reserve, the boys trace the story of banking from its ancient origins in Mesopotamian temples to the marble halls of Wall Street. It's a tale of gold, greed, and government — and of how fear of financial collapse led a handful of powerful men to create something that would change the world forever.We start at the beginning: when gold and silver were sacred, temples were banks, and the first loans were measured in grain. From there, Europe's merchant families — the Medicis, the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers — built fortunes and influence that still spark rumors today. As money moved across oceans and kings borrowed to fund their wars, the idea of a central bank was born — an institution that could steady economies… or secretly control them.When the young United States tried to follow suit, chaos followed. The First and Second Banks of the United States ignited political warfare, with President Andrew Jackson declaring he'd “kill the monster” before it strangled democracy. For nearly eighty years after Jackson's victory, America ran without a central bank — and paid dearly for it. Booms turned to busts, and panic became a way of life.Then came 1907. Markets crashed, depositors rioted, and the nation teetered on collapse until one man — J. P. Morgan — stepped in to save the economy with his own fortune. The panic convinced Congress that the country needed a new kind of bank… one that wouldn't rely on a single financier.That's when a secret train left New York for a remote island off the coast of Georgia. Its passengers were politicians and bankers, traveling under false names, carrying shotguns for cover, claiming they were going on a “duck-hunting trip.” What they were really hunting was control — over money itself.Next time, in Part Two: the birth of the Federal Reserve, the conspiracies that have haunted it ever since, and why some people still believe the “creature from Jekyll Island” runs the world today.www.patreon.com/theconspiracypodcast
Phil Rosen of Opening Bell Daily joins Inside the ICE House to unpack the forces driving the U.S. labor market slowdown. He explains how Fed rate hikes, the post-pandemic hiring reversal, and AI adoption are reshaping employment trends. While AI often gets the blame, Phil notes it's just one piece of a larger economic shift. He also shares why today's AI boom differs from the dot-com era and how younger investors continue to see market pullbacks as buying opportunities.
What did you think of todays show??The hardest part about getting started in real estate today? Realizing the shortcuts don't work anymore.In this episode, Alex Braich shares how he's managed to grow a wholesaling and flipping business in one of the country's toughest markets as a new investor. We cut down all the hype and guru tactics to highlight what really works, from the skills every newbie needs to build to the move that helped Alex 10x his business.Topics discussed:Introduction (00:00)Meet California investor, Alex Braich (01:52)The hardest part of growing a real estate business in 2025 (04:02)Why he moved from direct mail to cold calling (05:28)His strategy for staying profitable in a high-cost market (09:16)The end of easy lead gen and cheap deals (12:10)The downfall of big real estate ‘gurus' (14:17)Long-form vs. short-form real estate content (18:38)How Alex learned the real estate business (20:08)Why people struggle to leave their W-2 job (27:02)Advice for new investors (32:23)How he 10x'd his revenue (33:47)Sign up to join the FREE Scale Community! https://collectingkeys.com/Want deeper breakdowns like this every week? Subscribe to the Collecting Keys newsletter! https://collectingkeys.com/newsletter/Follow us on Instagram!https://www.instagram.com/collectingkeyspodcast/https://www.instagram.com/mike_invests/https://www.instagram.com/investormandan/https://www.instagram.com/dylan_does_dealsThis episode was produced by Podcast Boutique https://www.podcastboutique.com
Inside Fight.ID and the UFC's partnership with Fight.ID Co-Founder James Zhang. In today's Markets Outlook, Fight.ID Co-Founder James Zhang joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie to discuss Fight.ID's unique partnership with the UFC. Plus, he shares how they plan to convert millions of combat sports spectators into stakeholders through digital collectibles, event participation, and a dedicated fan identity system. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - OwlTing (Nasdaq: OWLS) is building invisible rails for global payments. With OwlPay, businesses and users can bridge fiat and stablecoins, send money instantly across borders, and access stablecoin checkout at lower costs. Licensed worldwide, OwlTing delivers secure, compliant, and regulated infrastructure for the digital economy. Learn more at owlting.com. - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption. Learn more at: https://www.geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.
SUBSCRIBE to our newsletter: https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribeDan Nathan & Guy Adami break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Tuesday, November 11th. -- Learn more about FactSet: https://www.factset.com/lp/mrkt-callSign up for our emailsFollow us on Twitter @MRKTCallFollow @GuyAdami on TwitterFollow @CarterBWorth on TwitterFollow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMediaLike us on Facebook @RiskReversalWatch all of our videos on YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
What if you could find a strategy for gaming the systems all around to work more in your favor? If you did, then things like coveted restaurant reservations, scarce concert tickets, landing the dream job, or even admission to top colleges could become much more in reach. Judd Kessler is a professor of business economics and public policy at the Wharton School and the author of Lucky by Design: The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want. The book acts as a guide for not only participants in the everyday markets that shape our lives, but also the designers of those markets. Judd and Greg discuss the hidden markets that dictate restaurant reservations, concert tickets, college admissions, and even dating. They explore different market design strategies like allocation mechanisms, centralized clearinghouses, and signaling.*unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:Why some markets don't play by price rules03:51: So many of the markets that we play in do not resolve themselves with the price rising. Either the price stays low because the seller wants it that way, and there's going to be excess demand—more people that want the thing than there are units available at that price—or we have decided as a society that we're not going to use prices to do the allocations, that it would be fundamentally unfair, or it would be fundamentally inefficient because we don't think your willingness to pay truly captures how much you value it.How market participants get ahead by knowing the rules01:33: When you are a market participant, you can do better by understanding the market rules and thinking about how to play in them.The three E's of a good market13:59: A good market will achieve the three E's: efficiency, equity, and being easy for market participants. And so what you've just tapped into is efficiency. And that's what makes this subfield of economics interesting, that there is no mechanism that satisfies all three of those perfectly all the time.Show Links:Recommended Resources:LabubuBetter Online Tickets Sales ActAlvin E. RothNational Resident Matching ProgramAmerican Economic AssociationDonald Mackenzie | unSILOedGuest Profile:Faculty Profile at Wharton School of BusinessProfessional WebsiteLinkedIn ProfileX Profile Guest Work:Lucky by Design: The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Financial Advisor Tim Russell, CFP®, Pastor Drew Gysi, and Tyler Rutherford discuss the dangers (and perks) of credit cards.Subscribe to "Life in the Markets" PodcastBuy our new book: The Good StewardListen to the Scripture Memory PodcastSee the show notes here!Wealth Management from a Biblical WorldviewStewardship Seminars from a Biblical WorldviewLearn more at: StewardologyPodcast.comSchedule a Personal Stewardship Review at: StewardologyPodcast.com/ReviewGet in touch with us at: Contact@StewardologyPodcast.comor call us at: (800) 688-5800Send us episode ideas! StewardologyPodcast.com/ideaSubscribe to get episodes delivered to your inbox every week.Follow along: Facebook, InstagramA ministry of Life Financial Group & Life Institute.Securities and Advisory Services offered through GENEOS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INC. Member FINRA and SIPC
A few days ago, HF Sinclair joined ONEOK, Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan in planning pipeline projects to move more refined products to Western markets. It's too soon to say how many of these projects will come to fruition, but what's certain is that the effort to transport large volumes of products west from PADDs 2, 3 and 4 will significantly impact refinery economics across vast swaths of the U.S. In today's RBN blog, we‘ll discuss the pipeline projects and how they will affect market dynamics.
Markets eye a potential end to the government shutdown while turning attention to a busy week of Fed speakers, with investors looking for clues on the path of interest rates.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Diversification and rebalancing strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal, and for some products and strategies, loss of more than your initial investment.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.Apple Podcasts and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries.Google Podcasts and the Google Podcasts logo are trademarks of Google LLC.Spotify and the Spotify logo are registered trademarks of Spotify AB.(0130-1125) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Paul Schatz “would be surprised” if the markets take out the lows from Friday, arguing that the pullback today is a retrenchment after yesterday's run up. He thinks investors should take some gains headed into the end of the year during “rippy up days” and rebalance their portfolios. He argues that it's hard for the market to fall in 4Q based on historical trends and says that even if conditions for a pullback appear, it might not happen. He likes Stride (LRN) and Carrier Global (CARR).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Exchange Traded Funds in commodities are now a part of the investment picture. Jake Hanley explains them as we look at the bridge between Wall Street and Main Street.
In this episode, Arnaud Jobert, co-head of Strategic Indices for Markets and Global Head of Equity Structuring, speaks with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group here at J.P. Morgan. They discuss the drivers of growth in the QIS business at J.P. Morgan, the types of alphas they look to provide systematic exposure to, from x-asset risk premia, to x-asset trend, to intraday- and vol-based strategies, and the evolution in investing client demand for these products. Finally they discuss further product innovation potential, from leveraging LLMs to expanding investment markets. Shownotes: Intraday options, levered ETFs and the retail investor with Matthieu Boisot, head of Cross-Asset, Volatility and Intraday Product Development for QIS – Jul ‘25 Evolution of the Markets Structuring business with Rui Fernandes, Head of Structuring - Feb ‘25 QIS Developments and the use of LLMs with Deepak Maharaj, Head of Equities and Cross Asset QIS Structuring – Nov ‘24 Extending the trend, with JP Morgan's Lead CTA Structurer with Jagadish Chalasani, Investible Indices team – Jun ‘24 This episode was recorded on 15th October 2025. The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan's Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.
The U.S. Senate passes a bill that could re-open government within days and restore federal funding programs until the end of January. Markets have reacted positively to the news with the Nasdaq posting its best session since May. President Trump is mulling tariff relief for Switzerland with some reports suggesting levies could be slashed from 39 per cent to 15 per cent. And in tech news, Softbank posts a $19bn gain at its Vision Fund following investment into OpenAI.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
After US senators managed to pass a bill that could end what has been the longest government shutdown in US history, equity markets have reacted with strong gains on Wall Street and beyond. Nonetheless, the interruption in government work will take its toll on the US economy, as predicted by the Congressional Budget Office. Also in this edition: we head to China, where the Singles' Day shopping holiday now spans five entire weeks in a contest of slow consumer demand.
The latest market updates and news from RNZ's business team.
The latest market updates and news from RNZ's business team.
The latest market updates and news from RNZ's business team.
The latest market updates and news from RNZ's business team.
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe EU and other countries are heading in the opposite direction of the US. They are moving towards a CBDC and total control of their population. The US is going to break free from the [CB] enslavement. Trump will be returning the buying power back to the people and its going to shock everyone. The D's just admitted that they were responsible for the shutdown, they received nothing and made the people suffer. Did Trump and team shutdown private flights to keep the [DS] players in this country? Trump pardons the electors and those who were investigating election fraud. Election rigging is about to be exposed to the world. Justice is coming. Economy https://twitter.com/shanaka86/status/1987750485840031806?s=20 1. Cash Over €10,000 Becoming "Illegal Tender" in January 2027 What's true: Starting in summer 2027 (not precisely January), there will be an EU-wide limit on cash payments for goods and services: no more than €10,000 per transaction (or linked transactions). This applies across all 27 member states, though countries can set lower thresholds if they want (e.g., some already have limits around €1,000–€3,000). The goal is to curb illicit cash flows used for crime. What's false: Cash itself doesn't become "illegal tender"—you can still hold unlimited euros in cash, withdraw it from banks, or use it for smaller payments without issue. The restriction is only on using cash to pay for things above the limit (e.g., you couldn't buy a €15,000 car in cash without switching to wire transfer or card). Violators face fines or penalties, but it's not a blanket criminalization of cash holdings. This builds on existing rules but standardizes them EU-wide for the first time. 2. Every Bitcoin Needing "Government Permission" What's true: The rules ban anonymous crypto-asset accounts or wallets held through service providers (e.g., exchanges like Binance). Crypto firms must perform customer due diligence (CDD)—verifying identities—for any accounts they manage, similar to how banks already handle fiat accounts. Privacy-focused coins (e.g., Monero, Zcash) and unhosted (self-custodied) wallets face extra scrutiny if used for high-risk activities, and anonymous services will be prohibited. What's false: There's no requirement for "government permission" to own or transfer individual Bitcoins (or any crypto). You can still hold Bitcoin in a personal wallet, mine it, or peer-to-peer trade it without approval, as long as it's not through a regulated service that demands KYC (know-your-customer) checks. This ties into the broader Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation (effective 2024–2026), which licenses crypto platforms but doesn't micromanage personal holdings. The "permission" angle misrepresents standard AML checks, which apply to businesses handling crypto, not everyday users. 3. Every Transaction Becoming a "Datapoint in Brussels' Surveillance Grid" What's true: Financial institutions (banks, payment providers, crypto exchanges) must report suspicious transactions to national Financial Intelligence Units (FIUs), which share data via a new EU-level Anti-Money Laundering Authority (AMLA) based in Frankfurt (not Brussels). CDD kicks in for occasional transactions over €10,000, and high-risk activities (e.g., complex/large transfers) get extra monitoring. Records must be kept for 5 years. What's false: Not every transaction is tracked or reported—only suspicious ones, high-value occasional deals, or those flagged under risk-based rules. Everyday purchases (e.g.,
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson unpacks why stocks are likely to stay resilient despite uncertainties related to Fed rates, government shutdown and tariffs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns for equities and how that may be changing. It's Monday, November 10th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.We're right in the middle of earnings season. Under the surface, there may appear to be high dispersion. But we're actually seeing positive developments for a broadening in growth. Specifically, the median stock is seeing its best earnings growth in four years. And the S&P 500 revenue beat rate is running 2 times its historical average. These are clear signs that the earning recovery is broadening and that pricing power is firming to offset tariffs. We're also watching out for other predictors of soft spots. And over the past week, the seasonal weakness in earnings revision breath appears to be over. For reference, this measure troughed at 6 percent on October 21st, and is now at 11 percent. The improvement is being led by Software, Transports, Energy, Autos and Healthcare. Despite this improvement in earnings revisions, the overall market traded heavy last week on the back of two other risks. The first risk relates to the Fed's less dovish bias at October's FOMC meeting. The Fed suggested they are not on a preset course to cut rates again in December. So, it's not a coincidence the U.S. equity market topped on the day of this meeting. Meanwhile investors are also keeping an eye on the growth data during the third quarter. If it's stronger than anticipated, it could mean there's less dovish action from the Fed than the market expects or needs for high prices.I have been highlighting a less dovish Fed as a risk for stocks. But it's important to point out that the labor market is also showing increasing signs of weakness. Part of this is directly related to the government shutdown. But the private labor data clearly illustrates a jobs market that's slowing beyond just government jobs. This is creating some tension in the markets – that the Fed will be late to cut rates, which increases the risk the recovery since April falls flat. In my view, labor market weakness coupled with the administration's desire to "run it hot" means that ultimately the Fed is likely to deliver more dovish policy than the market currently expects. But, without official jobs data confirming this trend, the Fed is moving slower than the equity market may like. The other risk the market has been focused on is the government shutdown itself. And there appears to be two main channels through which these variables are affecting stock prices. The first is tighter liquidity as reflected in the recent decline in bank reserves. The government shutdown has resulted in fewer disbursements to government employees and other programs. Once the government shutdown ends which appears imminent, these payments will resume, which translates into an easing of liquidity.The second impact of the shutdown is weaker consumer spending due to a large number of workers furloughed and benefits, like SNAP, halted. As a result, Consumer Discretionary company earnings revisions have rolled over. The good news is that the shutdown may be coming to an end and alleviate these market concerns. Finally, tariffs are facing an upcoming Supreme Court decision. There were questions last week on how affected stocks were reacting to this development. Overall, we saw fairly muted relative price reactions from the stocks that would be most affected. We think this relates to a couple of variables. First, the Trump administration could leverage a number of other authorities to replace the existing tariffs. Second, even in a scenario where the Supreme Court overturns tariffs, refunds are likely to take a significant amount of time, potentially well into 2026.So what does all of this all mean? Weak earnings seasonality is coming to an end along with the government shutdown. Both of these factors should lead to some relief in what have been softer equity markets more recently. But we expect volatility to persist until the Fed fully commits to the run it hot strategy of the administration. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
The University of Michigan's November consumer sentiment survey, and October private sector job cuts tracked by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, have raised concerns the US economy may be entering a recession. But data from ADP, state-level initial jobless claims, and the Chicago Fed's unemployment estimate, all paint a picture of a healthy economy. A closer look at the Challenger data, however, suggests the reason for job cuts is Artificial Intelligence. While AI might be able to displace humans in technology companies, it is unlikely to replace workers in many other sectors anytime soon. Still, it is clear labour is a primary worry in the market.
Take a Network Break! We start with a critical vulnerability in Cisco’s Unified Contact Center Express. On the news front it’s a Cisco triple play: the company brings AI to professional services and tech support with Cisco IQ, debuts converged infrastructure for the AI edge, and launches a new cert geared for running AI data... Read more »
Sergey Nazarov, Co-Founder of Chainlink, and I sat down at SmartCon to discuss how Chainlink is orchestrating the connection between blockchains, DeFi, and TradFi.Brought to you by
KB & DJ are BACK and kick things off discussing the new NLL UnBOXed markets and where the new brandings rank. Then KB recaps his time at Philadelphia Wings Media Day and the unreal experience he had. Then Brennan O'Neill and Dalton Young join the show from Media Day. Then the guys discuss NLL Preseason and Training Camps, discuss the Waterdogs hiring Dave Cottle as the team's GM, and the new signing windows in the PLL and WLL!Voicemails: speakpipe.com/OTBLaxPodSupport our partners!Merch: Code UNDERGROUND for 10% off at phiapparel.co/shop'47 BrandShop for your favorite sports fan and get FREE SHIPPING on ALL orders with '47 Brand!47.sjv.io/e1NyorPLL App CodeDownload the PLL App & redeem code OTBPOD for 500 XP!BUFFShop the SURVIVOR 49 Collection!https://buff.sjv.io/yqqVz2Kenwood BeerVisit https://kenwoodbeer.com/#finder to see who has Kenwood on tap! (Must be 21+)Follow Us!TwitterUnderground: https://twitter.com/UndergroundPHIOTB: https://twitter.com/OTBLaxPodKB: https://twitter.com/KBizzl311DJ: https://twitter.com/Scs_nextgreatHoots: https://twitter.com/HootSportsMediaInstagram:https://www.instagram.com/otblaxpod/https://www.instagram.com/undergroundphi/SUBSCRIBE on YouTube: youtube.com/@UndergroundSportsPhiladelphiayoutube.com/@OTBLaxPodIntro/Outro Music: Arkells "American Screams"#Lacrosse #PLL #PremierLacrosseLeague #NLL #NationalLacrosseLeague #BrennanONeill #DaltonYoung #Interview #Guests #Subscribe #fyp
Take a Network Break! We start with a critical vulnerability in Cisco’s Unified Contact Center Express. On the news front it’s a Cisco triple play: the company brings AI to professional services and tech support with Cisco IQ, debuts converged infrastructure for the AI edge, and launches a new cert geared for running AI data... Read more »
End of Government shutdown in sight. Democrats are angry. First American Nuclear (FANCO) is making history — announcing a $4 billion investment in Indiana. Markets are up on government shutdown likely ending. Don't wear hoodies when you're out at a nice restaurant!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Did the snow catch some local officials flatfooted? Government shutdown end in sight? Gunshots Damage Buildings, Vehicles in Downtown Indy Early Saturday. Tariffs are taxes Steve Bannon and Sec Scott Bessent JMV talking weekend Indianapolis sports. Democrats want the Government shutdown to continue. 2 Casting Couches for sale. IU lecturer says she was removed from classroom over intellectual diversity complaint End of Government shutdown in sight. Democrats are angry. First American Nuclear (FANCO) is making history — announcing a $4 billion investment in Indiana. Markets are up on government shutdown likely ending. Don't wear hoodies when you're out at a nice restaurant!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Take a Network Break! We start with a critical vulnerability in Cisco’s Unified Contact Center Express. On the news front it’s a Cisco triple play: the company brings AI to professional services and tech support with Cisco IQ, debuts converged infrastructure for the AI edge, and launches a new cert geared for running AI data... Read more »
1. When Politicians Panicked: The New Coronavirus, Expert Opinion, and a Tragic Lapse of Reason. John Tamny discusses the severe economic contraction initiated by mandated lockdowns, such as Governor Cuomo's March 20, 2020, order in New York. Tamny argues that politicians caused the crisis by forcing successful businesses to cease operations. These sudden actions by major economies forced global investors to fundamentally rethink the future value of businesses. Although early market signals from China suggested the virus was not highly lethal, pivotal political decisions, like the cancellation of South by Southwest, triggered panic, leading markets to realize that political action, not reality, was the primary threat. Markets digested these fears and corrected before rebounding. 1918