Podcasts about markets

Nov 14, 2025 – Chris Hennessey shares tips on maximizing deductions, managing SALT limits, and estate planning essentials before 2026 tax law changes. Don't miss his expert advice for investors and high earners...

PREVIEW Kelly Curry discusses the chain of poison where China is the driver and controller of dangerous drug production out of Myanmar. China supplies precursors but demands the resulting methamphetamines be diverted away from China, flooding markets across Asia and reaching North and South America. China continues to abet this trade because the chemical makers are a source of revenue. Future co-production and transmission of methods between Chinese-backed drug groups and Mexican cartels is anticipated. Guest: Kelly Curry. 1922

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Following hawkish commentary from six Federal Reserve presidents and promising indicators of October labour and consumer data, the market no longer expects a December rate cut. Meanwhile, recent technology stock performance suggests the market increasingly distinguishes between sustainable and speculative growth, and leverage. Over in Asia, China's stock market is supported by the country's leadership in electrification, more exports of high-technology products and services, a slowly appreciating Renminbi, and governmental efforts to promote equity investment and corporate governance reforms. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Markets are spiraling as Bitcoin crashes back into bear-market territory, erasing all of its 2025 gains and triggering more than $1.1B in liquidations while digital-asset products bleed another $2B in outflows. Analysts warn the extreme volatility and cascading liquidations resemble the conditions leading into past market breakdowns, raising the question: Is a modern “Black Monday” brewing for crypto and possibly equities? With weakening support flows, rising macro tension, and a spike in fear across derivatives markets, today we break down whether this is just another correction or the beginning of something much bigger.

Michael sits down with NYT's Journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss his riveting new book, "1929," a narrative dive into the personalities, excess, and miscalculations that fueled the most infamous market crash in history. From Jesse Livermore's billion-dollar bet to the birth of American credit culture—and even Winston Churchill's front-row seat—Sorkin reveals surprising parallels to today's AI-driven boom. A conversation packed with history, cautionary lessons, and unforgettable stories. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kristina Partsinevelos recaps the market while Rick Santelli breaks down bond market moves and Mackenzie Sigalos explains Bitcoin's “death cross.” Stephanie Aliaga from JPM Asset Management outlines the AI investment thesis, and Ben Bajarin of Creative Strategies weighs in on NVIDIA earnings and Apple succession plans. Drew Pettit of Citi explores thematic baskets heading into year-end, and Dallas Tanner, CEO of Invitation Homes, provides insight on the housing market. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Full market cycles matter more today than at any point in the last 15 years. Lance Roberts breaks down why valuations, history, and market structure all point to a simple truth: Every bull market is only half the story. The other half is the bear. Lance's approach isn't bullish or bearish. It's risk-focused. Your job as an investor isn't to predict the next crash—it's to avoid catastrophic losses that erase years of gains during the completion of a full market cycle. 0:00 - INTRO 0:27 - Market Moves Will Hinge on Nvidia 4:18 - Markets' 3rd Test of 50-DMA 8:46 - Why Berkshire Lags the S&P 10:36 - Economic Acceleration Expectations for 2026 14:01 - Consumer Spending Drives Economic Growth 17:42 - Economic Consolidation is Underway 21:45 - Half of Expected Cap-Ex Spending Will Support Economic Activity 23:48 - Full market Cycles Encompass Bulls & Bears 28:20 - A History of Markets' Performance 29:58 - Market Cycles Have Rhythm - The Wycoff Cycles 31:52 - There is No Evidence of Imminent Crash 33:42 - Full market Cycle Analyses 35:22 - Navigating Markets Now 37:51 - Betting Against Buffett 40:59 - Market Dynamics Can Drive Bull Markets for a While 42:42 - Data Deluge & Comming Attractions

Asian equities were mixed, while European equity markets are weaker. US equity futures are firmer with S&P up 0.5%. Bonds are firmer. US 10-year yield down 2 bps at 4.1%. Dollar firmer versus euro, Japanese yen and Aussie. Sterling little changed. Oil down, gold lower. Industrial metals weaker. Sentiment is still somewhat negative in Europe after Friday's selloff on rising uncertainty in AI complex and rotation out of high-multiple equities. In addition, hawkish Fedspeak keeping December rate cut at 50/50 odds. Markets have also been assessing rising friction between Japan and China over PM Takaichi's comments on Taiwan. Beijing urged citizens to avoid travel and study in Japan. China's Coast Guard also sent armed ships through disputed waters near Senkaku Islands. Companies Mentioned: Goldman Sachs, Affinity Equity Partners, Airbus SE, Pratt & Whitney, Flydubai, Grindr

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc

From Wall Street to Main Street, the latest on the markets and what it means for your money. Updated regularly on weekdays, featuring CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business newsmakers. Anchored and reported by CNBC's Jessica Ettinger. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Nasdaq ends a second consecutive week in the red with investors awaiting Nvidia results and a delayed U.S. jobs print later this week. German finance minister Lars Klingbeil is in Beijing for talks with Vice Premier He Lifeng to reassess economic ties between the two countries. Switzerland is eyeing major U.S. investments after the Trump administration cut tariffs down to 15 per cent. USTR Jaimeson Greer says the EU's tariffs on U.S. goods remain too high and the bloc was slow in cutting back levies. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

How to Find Product-Market Fit (Without Fooling Yourself) Founders love to sprint. Markets prefer you walk, listen, and maybe ask a few humans what they actually want. In this episode, product leader and startup advisor Shweta Agrawal joins Rina to break down why so many early-stage teams skip the fundamentals  (customer discovery, focus, ICP clarity) and pay the price later. From health-tech to ed-tech to “AI for everyone” tools, Shweta shares raw stories, red flags, and the simple practices that separate wishful thinking from real traction. Key Topics Discussed in This Episode Why Founders Keep Skipping Customer Discovery Shweta explains why “I know the market because I am the market” is the fastest path to building something no one pays for — and how to break that pattern early. Product-Market Fit Signals That Actually Matter Renewals, retention, usage depth, early-adopter behavior — and why the infamous “40% Would Be Very Disappointed” test still slaps in 2025. When (and Whether) You're Ready for Go-to-Market The building blocks founders overlook: ICP focus, positioning by region, partners who actually have reach, and the risks of going global before you even have 20 happy users.  Why Listen to This Episode? In this thought-provoking episode, you'll gain: A reality check on the biggest founder blind spots (and how to avoid them). A practical walkthrough of PMF signals that aren't vanity metrics. A step-by-step look at launching intentionally — not reactively. Lessons on adapting your product for different regions, cultures, and buying habits. Whether you're a PM or a founder, this episode will recalibrate your instincts and help you build with confidence, not guesswork.  Related Resources Check out these additional tools and resources to add to your PM belt: Productside Resource Library More Productside Stories Podcast Episodes Explore Productside Courses 

After a rollercoaster session US equities rebounded by Friday's close, with technology even ending the day in positive territory. Europe had earlier closed lower, mirroring Thursday's US tech selloff. Overnight, Korean technology stocks drove the Kospi higher but China and Japan's geopolitical tensions over Taiwan weighed on the broader market. Japan's travel and tourism sectors took a hit today after China warned its citizens not to travel there. When it comes to the week ahead, watch out for the Fed minutes, a raft of US data being unleashed after the shutdown, and Nvidia's all-important results on Wednesday. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical analysis covers likely trajectories for gold and the US dollar in today's podcast, as well as revealing what the charts say about a year-end rally.(00:00) - Introduction: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (00:38) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:03) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (08:40) - Closing remarks: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Welcome to the Celestial Insights Podcast, the show that brings the stars down to Earth! Each week, astrologer, coach, and intuitive Celeste Brooks of Astrology by Celeste will be your guide. Her website is astrologybyceleste.com.  

WhiteFiber (WYFI) CEO Sam Tabar says the demand for A.I. buildout is "very real," adding that the A.I. stock sell-offs are far overdone. He attributes the slowdown to a struggle to find power, a headwind he sees persisting for data centers. Sam also explains WhiteFiber's role in the A.I. buildout and the company's long-standing relationship with Nvidia (NVDA).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Mark Beck and Brian Jacobsen break down a jam-packed week of headlines in our Week in Review, from the shutdown delay and shifting tariffs to new housing ideas like portable mortgages. We'll look at what small businesses and big-name earnings are really telling us as we roll into the holidays, and later we'll uncover “equity compensation” and whether it's a smart way to get paid.

John Terrett: Fed Uncertainty Shakes Markets (2 min) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What beefy problems were Tyson and vegan alternative Beyond Meat dealing with this week? And what sent tech stocks sliding this week? Plus, how did two media giants fare while a potential deal for some or all of Warner Bros. Discovery continues to unfold? Host Francesca Fontana discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What beefy problems were Tyson and vegan alternative Beyond Meat dealing with this week? And what sent tech stocks sliding this week? Plus, how did two media giants fare while a potential deal for some or all of Warner Bros. Discovery continues to unfold? Host Francesca Fontana discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Nov 14, 2025 – Are the days of tech dominance numbered? In this wide-ranging discussion, Jim Puplava and Greg Weldon warn that the so-called Mag 7 tech stocks are faltering, jeopardizing narrow market leadership and exposing investors to...

Ophelia Snyder, Co-Founder of 21Shares, joined me to discuss the company's Crypto ETF strategy and acquisition by FalconX at Chainlink SmartCon. Brought to you by

This week on Autonomy Markets, Grayson Brulte and Walter Piecyk discuss Waymo's great highway unlock, their Bay Area expansion to 260 square miles and the launch of commercial service at the San Jose Airport.Despite the expansion, Waymo remains sharply vehicle-constrained. Bloomberg reported this week that the company is operating roughly 1,000 vehicles in the Bay Area, 700 in Los Angeles, 500 in Phoenix, 200 in Austin, and just 100 in Atlanta, for a total fleet of approximately 2,500 vehicles spread across all markets.In the autonomous trucking market, Kodiak continues to demonstrate that the economics work. With 10 fully driverless trucks generating revenue in the Permian Basin, the company logged 5,200 paid hours last quarter, up 166% from Q2, a meaningful validation of the model.Wrapping up the conversation, Grayson and Walt examine why technology leadership means nothing without scalable manufacturing partnerships and now how autonomous trucking is pulling ahead of robotaxis on business model execution, and what global expansion in Abu Dhabi and Singapore signals about the global competitive landscape.Episode Chapters0:00 Waymo Expands to Highways3:58 Vehicle Supply16:56 California Airports19:28 Tesla FSD Update21:42 Uber Ski25:21 Kodiak29:40 Foreign Autonomy Desk30:40 Next WeekRecorded on Thursday, November 13, 2025--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy provides market intelligence and strategic advisory services to institutional investors and companies, delivering insights needed to stay ahead of emerging trends in the autonomy economy™. To learn more, say hello (at) roadtoautonomy.com.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for the debut of his weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Markets hit all-time highs this week before pulling back sharply as the Fed ended quantitative tightening amid growing liquidity stress in money markets—echoing the dangerous conditions of November 2018 when Chairman Powell nearly crashed the system. Whalen warns we're seeing the same warning signs: tightening liquidity, basis trades breaking down, and a Fed flying blind without proper tools to measure reserve availability. Meanwhile, cracks are appearing across markets—from Bitcoin's retreat below $100k to BlackRock's stunning 100% writedown on private debt it valued at par just weeks ago.Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: Is it November 2018 All Over Again?: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira778Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction: New weekly segment "The Wrap with Chris Whalen" 0:42 - Markets this week: biggest decline since April 2:34 - Treasury General Account and bank reserves 6:50 - December rate cut now 50-50 toss up 8:14 - Economy still bubbling along robustly 8:39 - If big sell-off, Fed will start QE again 10:40 - Is it November 2018 all over again? 14:38 - Are we setting up for another repo crisis? 17:27 - Bitcoin fell below $95,000 - what's it signaling? 20:50 - Gold discussion: most investors under-invested 24:44 - Private credit concerns 25:48 - Government shutdown resolution 28:29 - Mortgage markets and housing policy 30:00 - Closing remarks and what to watch next week

Markets tried to stage a comeback this week. Were they successful? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!

Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.

Diving into dark pools with GoQuant Founder and CEO Denis Dariotis. On today's Markets Outlook, GoQuant Founder and CEO Denis Dariotis joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie and Andy Baehr to discuss bitcoin's dip under $100K, and how institutional trading infrastructure like dark pools is maturing the crypto market. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠midnight.network/break-free⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - OwlTing (Nasdaq: OWLS) is building invisible rails for global payments. With OwlPay, businesses and users can bridge fiat and stablecoins, send money instantly across borders, and access stablecoin checkout at lower costs. Licensed worldwide, OwlTing delivers secure, compliant, and regulated infrastructure for the digital economy. Learn more at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠owlting.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption. Learn more at: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/⁠⁠⁠ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie and Andy Baehr.

Nov 14, 2025 – Are the Magnificent 7 tech stocks losing their crown? In this timely interview, Jim Puplava sits down with Market Gauge's Mish Schneider to decode the major rotations shaking the markets...

Nov 14, 2025 – Amid mounting concerns about market liquidity, Financial Sense's Chris Puplava explains why the Federal Reserve may soon intervene to stabilize short-term funding. As the Fed shrinks its balance sheet, reserves risk falling from “ample” to...

Patrick Witt, the Executive Director of the President's Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, joined me at Chainlink's SmartCon to discuss the status of the Crypto Market Structure Bill (CLARITY Act), Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and more. Brought to you by

Michael Reinking, Senior Market Strategist at the NYSE, recaps a week marked by the end of a record 43-day government shutdown and fading AI euphoria. Markets wrestled with delayed data and Fed caution on rate cuts as volatility ticked higher. AI stocks cooled after bubble warnings and bearish bets, while investors rotated toward quality and large caps. Crypto weakness and rising VIX added to risk-off signals. The week closed steady, with eyes on earnings, global PMIs, and fresh economic data ahead.

Diving into dark pools with GoQuant Founder and CEO Denis Dariotis. On today's Markets Outlook, GoQuant Founder and CEO Denis Dariotis joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie and Andy Baehr to discuss bitcoin's dip under $100K, and how institutional trading infrastructure like dark pools is maturing the crypto market. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠midnight.network/break-free⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - OwlTing (Nasdaq: OWLS) is building invisible rails for global payments. With OwlPay, businesses and users can bridge fiat and stablecoins, send money instantly across borders, and access stablecoin checkout at lower costs. Licensed worldwide, OwlTing delivers secure, compliant, and regulated infrastructure for the digital economy. Learn more at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠owlting.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. - Genius Group has partnered with CoinDesk for Bitcoin Treasury Month, launching the Genius x CoinDesk Quest. Participants can join the Bitcoin Academy, complete free microcourses from experts like Natalie Brunell and Saifedean Ammous, and enter to win 1,000,000 GEMs (worth 1 BTC) promoting bitcoin education and adoption. Learn more at: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.geniusgroup.ai/coindesk-bitcoin-treasury-month/⁠⁠⁠ - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie and Andy Baehr.

In this episode, Kathy Jones and Liz Ann Sonders discuss some recent investor' questions involving credit risks, government debt, and the potential for an AI bubble. Then, Mike Townsend, Schwab's Washington-based political analyst, joins the show to discuss the end of the government shutdown. He and Liz Ann and Kathy cover the provisions within the agreement to reopen the government, including the potential extension of subsidies for the Affordable Care Act. They also discuss the upcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and how the government might take a while to get caught up on data releases involving employment and inflation information. Kathy and Liz Ann routinely answer questions about the effects of government debt and deficits, and they ask Mike Townsend for his thoughts on how and when that issue might be resolved. Finally, they address upcoming changes to the tax code and the political fallout of the shutdown.You can keep up with the latest developments out of Washington—and learn how they might affect investors—by following Mike Townsend on X and LinkedIn. You can also listen to and follow his podcast, WashingtonWise.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.This information is not a specific recommendation, individualized tax  or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager, Estate Attorney) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1125-9E27) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The US economy is in the midst of a “handover” from a fiscal expansion to a credit expansion, says Anshul Sehgal, global co-head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. What does that mean for portfolios – and where are the biggest opportunities now? Sehgal discusses with Chris Hussey on the Goldman Sachs trading floor. This episode was recorded on November 13, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products.  This material may contain forward-looking statements.  Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose.  Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs.  A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content.  Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs.    © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode, Carlos Gonzalez de Villaumbrosia interviews Dheerja Kaur, Chief Product Officer at Hims & Hers, the publicly traded health and wellness platform with a market cap of over $10 billion and more than 3 million active users across its Hims and Hers consumer brands.At Hims & Hers, Dheerja is building the future of preventative care by combining diagnostics, clinical guidance, and personalized treatments—all delivered through a consumer-grade digital experience. From healthcare to fintech, Dheerja breaks down how PMs can master regulatory nuance without sacrificing speed or UX, why pairing product with clinical and compliance experts is a superpower, and how to turn constraints into differentiation through org design, platform thinking, and data. What you'll learn: – Why product leadership in regulated industries requires a different kind of PM muscle. – How Hims & Hers is expanding from transactional treatments to full-stack preventative care. – The rationale behind maintaining two separate apps—and how that unlocks personalization at scale. – How AI is powering internal tools, treatment plans, and personalized health journeys.Key Takeaways :point_down: – Building for Impact, Not Just Efficiency: Why Dheerja prefers mission-driven industries that improve lives over “fun” products. – Product Meets Clinical: How Hims & Hers pairs PMs with in-house physicians to co-create treatment and diagnostic experiences. – From Health Stack to Health Loop: Why continuous testing, personalized treatments, and AI-powered insights are the future of digital health.Social Links:- Follow our Podcast on Tik Tok here- Follow Product School on LinkedIn here- Join Product School's free events here- Find out more about Product School hereCredits:Host: Carlos Gonzalez de VillaumbrosiaGuest: Dheerja Kaur

Jake Martin began his culinary journey at 15, washing dishes in Northern California before moving sight unseen to Seattle in 1999. There, he taught himself the craft, working his way up through kitchens like Union and Maria Hines' Tilth. He moved to Portland in 2007, eventually running acclaimed restaurants Carlyle and Fenouil. This success was followed by a period of intense personal and professional difficulty, including high-profile restaurant closures, a severe depression, and a series of unfulfilling jobs that left him feeling burnt out and disconnected from the food he wanted to cook. ​After hitting a low point, his partner, Silqet, urged him to stop working for others and create his own vision. With her support and help from the Small Business Development Center, he wrote a business plan and secured a loan to open their new restaurant, Daphne, in Astoria. Today, his focus is hyper-local, sourcing nearly all ingredients from within a 75-mile radius. He champions a philosophy of simplicity, letting high-quality ingredients speak for themselves, and aims to educate the community on the exceptional produce, meats, and seafood their own region provides. www.daphneastoria.com @restaurant.daphne   Right at the Fork is made possible by:  DU/ER: www.shopduer.com/fork Zupan's Markets: www.zupans.com  RingSide SteakHouse: www.RingSideSteakhouse.com  Portland Food Adventures: www.PortlandFoodAdventures.com 

Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane discuss investors dumping tech shares as shutdown relief evaporates. What is going to shift sentiment back in the positive direction? Are we headed for a repeat of the dot com era? Markets no longer view the December rate cut as a sure bet, with Fed officials casting doubts. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon to retire in January after nearly 12 years leading retailer. U.S. to cut tariffs on bananas, coffee and other goods from four countries. Nearly 900,000 new homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, signaling a troubling shift in the housing market. Amazon and Microsoft back effort that would restrict Nvidia's exports to China.

Our economy is embedded in nature, but nature is in danger. External funding is needed, especially in the Global South, to support the conservation of our natural ecosystems. Markets can play a role, but the way in which voluntary carbon markets do this has low public trust which, from recent news, may be deserved. Estelle Cantillon of Université libre de Bruxelles and CEPR tells Tim Phillips about her proposal for a new market mechanism to channel funds to projects that will conserve or restore our natural environment by paying dividends to those who invest. But how will it avoid greenwashing, and who will buy the shares? Read about this in Chapter 8 of the Paris report: https://cepr.org/system/files/publication-files/257653-policy_insight_145_designing_and_scaling_up_nature_based_markets.pdf

Mike Mussio covers the macro picture and thinks it's “risk-off” right now. He says this shouldn't be alarming to long-term investors but might be to speculative investors. Mike lays out the best case scenario for 2026, emphasizing market breadth and the longevity of the AI trade. He thinks investors should be trimming their gains before the end of the year, stressing that traders want to balance higher beta and higher multiple names.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

As we pass the midpoint of the NFL season, Adam Levitan, Ryan Reynolds and Mark Dankenbring take another look through the NFL Awards Markets, discussing how the markets have turned, where new value can be found and how you should be betting the NFL's most lucrative market.Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction2:01 - Most Valuable Player12:31 - Offensive Player of the Year 17:12 - Defensive Player of the Year21:24 - Offensive Rookie of the Year27:17 - Defensive Rookie of the Year32:06 - Coach of the Year36:35 - Comeback Player of the YearWant ETR on your team this season? Our 2025 NFL In-Season has you covered with:NFL In-Season content includes:Silva's Matchups ColumnDFS Top PlaysProjections for Every PlayerOwnership Projections for Every SlateWeekly Premium ShowsSubscribe now at https://subscribe.establishtherun.com/nflinseason/New Customers Play Free for Your Share of Millions in Prizes with First DepositDownload the DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and enter promo code ETR to play FREE for your share of millions in prizes with your first deposit! ⁠Sign Up Today⁠ Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit ccpg.org (CT).18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per new customer. Min. $5 deposit req. 1 single-use $3 ticket rewarded. Ticket rewards are site credits valid for use on eligible DraftKings contests. Ticket rewards expire 14 days (336 hours) after being issued. Terms: www.draftkings.com/promotions. Ends 12/31/2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Sponsored by DK.DFS OPTIMIZER: Sign up for THE SOLVER for access to the software we think fantasy players need to win: ⁠https://thesolver.com/?ref=etr⁠WE CAN HELP: Tired of attention-seeking hot takes? Get the highest-quality fantasy football analysis in your inbox, FREE: ⁠https://bit.ly/establishtherun⁠SPORTSBOOK OFFERS: We've partnered with several major sportsbook outlets to help supply you with the best offers in the industry and ensure you're maximizing your bankroll from the start: ⁠https://establishtherun.com/offers/⁠FOLLOW US: Check out our social media channels for FREE fantasy football & DFS videos, analysis, and more: ⁠https://linktr.ee/establishtherun

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discuss artificial intelligence in Europe, and how the region could enable the Agentic AI wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European head of research product. We are bringing you a special episode today live from Morgan Stanley's, 25th European TMT Conference, currently underway. The central theme we're focused on: Can Europe keep up from a technology development perspective?It's Wednesday, November the 12th at 8:00 AM in Barcelona. Earlier this morning I was live on stage with my colleagues, Adam Wood, Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology Hardware. The larger context of our conversation was tech diffusion, one of our four key themes that we've identified at Morgan Stanley Research for 2025. For the panel, we wanted to focus further on agentic AI in Europe, AI disruption as well as adoption, and data centers. We started off with my question to Adam. I asked him to frame our conversation around how Europe is enabling the Agentic AI wave. Adam Wood: I mean, I think obviously the debate around GenAI, and particularly enterprise software, my space has changed quite a lot over the last three to four months. Maybe it's good if we do go back a little bit to the period before that – when everything was more positive in the world. And I think it is important to think about, you know, why we were excited, before we started to debate the outcomes. And the reason we were excited was we've obviously done a lot of work with enterprise software to automate business processes. That's what; that's ultimately what software is about. It's about automating and standardizing business processes. They can be done more efficiently and more repeatably. We'd done work in the past on RPA vendors who tried to take the automation further. And we were getting numbers that, you know, 30 – 40 percent of enterprise processes have been automated in this way. But I think the feeling was it was still the minority. And the reason for that was it was quite difficult with traditional coding techniques to go a lot further. You know, if you take the call center as a classic example, it's very difficult to code what every response is going to be to human interaction with a call center worker. It's practically impossible. And so, you know, what we did for a long time was more – where we got into those situations where it was difficult to code every outcome, we'd leave it with labor. And we'd do the labor arbitrage often, where we'd move from onshore workers to offshore workers, but we'd still leave it as a relatively manual process with human intervention in it. I think the really exciting thing about GenAI is it completely transforms that equation because if the computers can understand natural human language, again to our call center example, we can train the models on every call center interaction. And then first of all, we can help the call center worker predict what the responses are going to be to incoming queries. And then maybe over time we can even automate that role. I think it goes a lot further than, you know, call center workers. We can go into finance where a lot of work is still either manual data re-entry or a remediation of errors. And again, we can automate a lot more of those tasks. That's obviously where, where SAP's involved. But basically what I'm trying to say is if we expand massively the capabilities of what software can automate, surely that has to be good for the software sector that has to expand the addressable markets of what software companies are going to be able to do. Now we can have a secondary debate around: Is it going to be the incumbents, is it going to be corporates that do more themselves? Is it going to be new entrants that that benefit from this? But I think it's very hard to argue that if you expand dramatically the capabilities of what software can do, you don't get a benefit from that in the sector. Now we're a little bit more consumer today in terms of spending, and the enterprises are lagging a little bit. But I think for us, that's just a question of timing. And we think we'll see that come through.I'll leave it there. But I think there's lots of opportunities in software. We're probably yet to see them come through in numbers, but that shouldn't mean we get, you know, kind of, we don't think they're going to happen. Paul Walsh: Yeah. We're going to talk separately about AI disruption as we go through this morning's discussion. But what's the pushback you get, Adam, to this notion of, you know, the addressable market expanding? Adam Wood: It's one of a number of things. It's that… And we get onto the kind of the multiple bear cases that come up on enterprise software. It would be some combination of, well, if coding becomes dramatically cheaper and we can set up, you know, user interfaces on the fly in the morning, that can query data sets; and we can access those data sets almost in an automated way. Well, maybe companies just do this themselves and we move from a world where we've been outsourcing software to third party software vendors; we do more of it in-house. That would be one. The other one would be the barriers to entry of software have just come down dramatically. It's so much easier to write the code, to build a software company and to get out into the market. That it's going to be new entrants that challenge the incumbents. And that will just bring price pressure on the whole market and bring… So, although what we automate gets bigger, the price we charge to do it comes down. The third one would be the seat-based pricing issue that a lot of software vendors to date have expressed the value they deliver to customers through. How many seats of the software you have in house. Well, if we take out 10 – 20 percent of your HR department because we make them 10, 20, 30 percent more efficient. Does that mean we pay the software vendor 10, 20, 30 percent less? And so again, we're delivering more value, we're automating more and making companies more efficient. But the value doesn't accrue to the software vendors. It's some combination of those themes I think that people would worry about. Paul Walsh: And Lee, let's bring you into the conversation here as well, because around this theme of enabling the agentic AI way, we sort of identified three main enabler sectors. Obviously, Adam's with the software side. Cap goods being the other one that we mentioned in the work that we've done. But obviously semis is also an important piece of this puzzle. Walk us through your thoughts, please. Lee Simpson: Sure. I think from a sort of a hardware perspective, and really we're talking about semiconductors here and possibly even just the equipment guys, specifically – when seeing things through a European lens. It's been a bonanza. We've seen quite a big build out obviously for GPUs. We've seen incredible new server architectures going into the cloud. And now we're at the point where we're changing things a little bit. Does the power architecture need to be changed? Does the nature of the compute need to change? And with that, the development and the supply needs to move with that as well. So, we're now seeing the mantle being picked up by the AI guys at the very leading edge of logic. So, someone has to put the equipment in the ground, and the equipment guys are being leaned into. And you're starting to see that change in the order book now. Now, I labor this point largely because, you know, we'd been seen as laggards frankly in the last couple of years. It'd been a U.S. story, a GPU heavy story. But I think for us now we're starting to see a flipping of that and it's like, hold on, these are beneficiaries. And I really think it's 'cause that bow wave has changed in logic. Paul Walsh: And Lee, you talked there in your opening remarks about the extent to which obviously the focus has been predominantly on the U.S. ways to play, which is totally understandable for global investors. And obviously this has been an extraordinary year of ups and downs as it relates to the tech space. What's your sense in terms of what you are getting back from clients? Is the focus shifts may be from some of those U.S. ways to play to Europe? Are you sensing that shift taking place? How are clients interacting with you as it relates to the focus between the opportunities in the U.S. and Asia, frankly, versus Europe? Lee Simpson: Yeah. I mean, Europe's coming more into debate. It's more; people are willing to talk to some of the players. We've got other players in the analog space playing into that as well. But I think for me, if we take a step back and keep this at the global level, there's a huge debate now around what is the size of build out that we need for AI? What is the nature of the compute? What is the power pool? What is the power budgets going to look like in data centers? And Emmet will talk to that as well. So, all of that… Some of that argument's coming now and centering on Europe. How do they play into this? But for me, most of what we're finding people debate about – is a 20-25 gigawatt year feasible for [20]27? Is a 30-35 gigawatt for [20]28 feasible? And so, I think that's the debate line at this point – not so much as Europe in the debate. It's more what is that global pool going to look like? Paul Walsh: Yeah. This whole infrastructure rollout's got significant implications for your coverage universe… Lee Simpson: It does. Yeah. Paul Walsh: Emmet, it may be a bit tangential for the telco space, but was there anything you wanted to add there as it relates to this sort of agentic wave piece from a telco's perspective? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, there's a consensus view out there that telcos are not really that tuned into the AI wave at the moment – just from a stock market perspective. I think it's fair to say some telcos have been a source of funds for AI and we've seen that in a stock market context, especially in the U.S. telco space, versus U.S. tech over the last three to six months, has been a source of funds. So, there are a lot of question marks about the telco exposure to AI. And I think the telcos have kind of struggled to put their case forward about how they can benefit from AI. They talked 18 months ago about using chatbots. They talked about smart networks, et cetera, but they haven't really advanced their case since then. And we don't see telcos involved much in the data center space. And that's understandable because investing in data centers, as we've written, is extremely expensive. So, if I rewind the clock two years ago, a good size data center was 1 megawatt in size. And a year ago, that number was somewhere about 50 to 100 megawatts in size. And today a big data center is a gigawatt. Now if you want to roll out a 100 megawatt data center, which is a decent sized data center, but it's not huge – that will cost roughly 3 billion euros to roll out. So, telcos, they've yet to really prove that they've got much positive exposure to AI. Paul Walsh: That was an edited excerpt from my conversation with Adam, Emmet and Lee. Many thanks to them for taking the time out for that discussion and the live audience for hearing us out.We will have a concluding episode tomorrow where we dig into tech disruption and data center investments. So please do come back for that very topical conversation. As always, thanks for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by leaving us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague to tune in today.

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A few years ago, industry and political leaders embraced hydrogen as a solution to a laundry list of hard-to-abate decarbonization challenges — steel production, ammonia production, and more. But hydrogen failed to come down in costs and policymakers pulled back support. Ultimately, the bubble burst.  So what does it take to drive down the costs of low-carbon hydrogen and rebuild momentum? In this episode, Shayle talks to Raffi Garabedian, co-founder and CEO of Electric Hydrogen. (Shayle is on the board of Electric Hydrogen and Energy Impact Partners, where Shayle is a partner, invests in the company). Shayle and Raffi cover topics like: Why the hype bubble burst: political pullback, high renewables costs driven by AI demand, and high CapEx  The real cost problem: Why engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) costs have remained persistently high Competing approaches: Why Electric Hydrogen chose supersized electrolyzers over modular units The China question: Why hydrogen's EPC costs will limit the impact of cheap Chinese electrolyzers Real numbers: Realistic cost targets for fossil parity and Electric Hydrogen's current pricing Where hydrogen wins: Markets where Raffi says green hydrogen can achieve fossil parity by the early 2030s, including Brazilian fertilizer Resources: Latitude Media: is 45v guidance killing green hydrogen production? The Green Blueprint: Electric Hydrogen's bet on supersized electrolyzers Latitude Media: Electric Hydrogen is building through the market downturn   Latitude Media: Hydrogen's narrow pathway to positive climate impacts   Latitude Media: Why the Electric Hydrogen-Ambient merger is a sign of things to come Fill out our short podcast listener survey for a chance to win a $100 Amazon gift card. Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Daniel Woldorff. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor.  Catalyst is brought to you by EnergyHub. EnergyHub helps utilities build next-generation virtual power plants that unlock reliable flexibility at every level of the grid. See how EnergyHub helps unlock the power of flexibility at scale, and deliver more value through cross-DER dispatch with their leading Edge DERMS platform, by visiting energyhub.com. Catalyst is brought to you by Bloom Energy. AI data centers can't wait years for grid power—and with Bloom Energy's fuel cells, they don't have to. Bloom Energy delivers affordable, always-on, ultra-reliable onsite power, built for chipmakers, hyperscalers, and data center leaders looking to power their operations at AI speed. Learn more by visiting BloomEnergy.com.