Podcasts about markets

Markets face renewed pressure as rising oil prices, higher Treasury yields and inflation concerns put Fed policy back in focus. Plus, advances in AI and a rotation into software are reshaping the tech trade as investors weigh volatility and new opportunities. Later, U.S. Canada trade tensions and growing questions around AI safety and accountability add fresh risks to the global outlook. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Avi Turetsky, Partner and Head of the Quantitative Research Group at Ares Management, and Bill Kieser, Principal and Co-Head of Research and Data Science at Ares Management, join the InsuranceAUM Podcast to explore how quantitative research is changing the way institutional investors evaluate private markets.   They discuss how investors can look beyond traditional measures like IRR and quartile rankings to better understand alpha, benchmarking, portfolio construction, and relative value across private equity, private credit, real estate, infrastructure, and secondaries. The conversation also examines what Ares' research suggests about investing during periods of volatility and the potential benefits of taking a more contrarian approach to private market allocations.   The discussion also looks ahead to the growing role of AI and machine learning in investment research, including how Ares is using data to identify potential credit risks and where quantitative tools may complement, rather than replace, human investment judgment.

Heat kills more people than any other weather disaster, yet almost no government agency owns the problem. A UCLA researcher explains why that has to change.

Mistral AI raises €3bn at a valuation of more than €21bn. The fund-raising round is among Europe's largest ever. CEO Arthur Mensch tells CNBC that the move will accelerate future growth. Oil prices are at a six-week high with Brent crude nearing the $100-mark. Market sentiment reacts with the chances of central bank tightening looming. Chinese exports in August grow by 25 per cent while Canada's counter-tariffs against the U.S. take hold.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

September marks the beginning of the spring season in Australia. Here are some activities and places to explore during this time of year. - Setyembre ang simula ng tagsibol o spring season sa Australia. Narito ang ilang aktibidad o pasyalan.

Send us Fan MailDollar/yen drops to 154, supported by BoJ hike bets, but move looksstretched. Oil jumps again on ME newsflow; risk of $100 WTI oil price isrising. Markets prepare for Thursday's buybacks and US data. Goldstabilizes at $4,400, bitcoin drops below $80k again.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

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Sep 7, 2026 – Boston College's Dr. Thomas Seyfried tells Financial Sense Newshour's Jim Puplava why he believes cancer is a mitochondrial metabolic disease—not primarily a genetic one. He explains why conventional treatments may miss the real driver...

Sep 7, 2026 – Ed Yardeni discusses his bullish outlook for the S&P 500, raising his year-end target to 8,400 and projecting 10,000 by decade's end. He highlights the “Roaring 2020s,” G-shaped vs. K-shaped economy, strong earnings and productivity...

“When people trade, even before fees and commissions, the average trade loses money.” — Alex Edmans Isaac Newton might be able to foresee the movement of the stars, but he couldn't foretell the madness of men. It was a lesson that cost the great physicist £4 million (in today's money) when he threw his fortune into the South Sea Bubble. This priceless parable in Newtonian psychology opens The Madness of Markets, the new book by Alex Edmans — London Business School finance prof, old friend of the show, and author of the bestselling May Contain Lies. Dr Edmans's prognosis is bracingly unflattering to guys like Isaac Newton and Mark Twain who splurge their fortunes on speculative ventures. Intelligence, he reminds us, is domain-specific, but many smart people simply aren't intelligent enough to realize this. So, in the age of Robinhood — when we can all trade anything from stocks, options, crypto to NFTs — the supposed wisdom of crowds is sometimes driven over the cliff by the irrational exuberance of dumb individuals. Speaking of driving off the cliff, ninety percent of us think we're above-average drivers, Edmans jokes, and this same delusion applies to markets. Unfortunately, such stupidity can be expensive for big brain types like Newton or Twain. “When people trade, even before fees and commissions, the average trade loses money,” he warns. So close your Robinhood account and stick your cash in the bank? No, not quite. Know your edge, Edmans reminds us. And when it comes to making sense of the current AI boom, Edmans offers some particularly wise words. The AI sector trades at 25 to 30 times earnings rather than Cisco's bubble-era 190, he notes, so it's unlikely anyone will lose their life's savings on Anthropic or OpenAI. That said, the good doctor Edmans advises, don't confuse your self-worth with your net worth. That's a rookie conceit that only somebody as smart as Isaac Newton would fall for. Five Takeaways •       Newton's £4 Million. The book leads with the smartest victim on record: Isaac Newton rode the South Sea Bubble, banked a tidy profit, dove back in at the very top, and lost £20,000 — £4 million today — lamenting that he could predict the movement of the stars but not the madness of men. (Andrew's companion case, via last month's Citizen Twain episode with Jeff Jarvis: Mark Twain, genius writer, ruinous investor.) The lesson is that smartness is domain-specific: beating the market requires knowing the company, the industry, and — crucially — what's already priced in. A great secretary of state evaluating Theranos is the Dunning-Kruger effect in a suit: expertise misapplied, one piece of the mosaic mistaken for the whole. Even Warren Buffett's edge, Edmans notes, is partly restraint — don't watch the market too closely, or you'll mistake noise for signal.•       Know Your Edge. Edmans's framework: play the market only if you can name your edge — knowledge (unique insight into a sector) or endurance (capital that can't be withdrawn by flighty clients). His endurance exemplar is Clare College, Cambridge, which borrowed £10 million in the depths of 2008 and put it all into equities via its “2048 Fund”: a decade later the portfolio had tripled while the loan had merely doubled. No edge? Then “be humble” and hold a low-cost, globally diversified index fund — because the alternative is expensive. In the age of Robinhood, the market for everything has been democratized; the zero-commission promise is a myth (retail options bid-ask spreads run 20 to 25 percent); and the brokerage data is brutal: the average retail trade loses money before fees. “I'm generally a libertarian,” Edmans concedes — but decisions that jeopardize your financial future deserve a warning label.•       Why the Ox Doesn't Apply. The week's second Surowiecki appearance (after the Brunton episode): Edmans explains why the wisdom of crowds — the county-fair ox whose weight the crowd guesses perfectly — fails in markets. Two reasons: nobody is emotionally attached to the weight of an ox, and the guesses are secret. Stocks invert both — in a bubble everyone bids high together, and trading is public: Reddit threads, boasting friends, influencers, and the survivorship bias of gamblers who only mention their wins. Hence Andrew's cocktail-party indicator, confirmed: when smart, successful people start telling you how much AI they're buying, the trade is crowded and richly priced. The contrarian lineage — Graham, Buffett, Greenblatt — exists precisely to take the other side of mimicry. Or, per Andrew's accepted inversion of the subtitle: why crazy investors make smart decisions — Ford's faster horses, Moneyball's walks, Jobs's refusal to ask customers what they want.•       Is AI a Bubble? Maybe Not. The hour's most contrarian calm. There are moments, Edmans says, when reasonable people could call a bubble in real time — Cisco in 2000 traded at a price-earnings ratio of 190, triple Microsoft's. AI today trades at roughly 25 to 30 times earnings; the bear case is that those earnings rest on capex (Meta's own investors say it's spending too much) that may not be sustainable. His verdict: fairly priced, or modestly overvalued — “something about which reasonable people have different views.” On using AI to invest, the rule is anti-confirmation: don't ask it why you're right or to advocate for your pitch; ask it why you're wrong, and let it gather mosaic pieces (Glassdoor culture scrapes) while humans still walk shop floors and read management's eyes. Andrew's gloss: it's unlikely anyone will lose their life's savings on Anthropic or OpenAI. The teaser: FT journalist Robin Wigglesworth — who blurbs this book “a maddeningly good read” and warns in the Times of the AI debt binge — visits this show soon.•       Cutting Our Flowers, Watering Our Weeds. Andrew's Claudeception question — what happens when Anthropic feeds The Madness of Markets into its AI and everyone turns contrarian? — got a data answer: when a trading strategy is published in the Journal of Finance, its returns fall by only about a third. Money stays on the table because psychology is stubborn: momentum (buy six-month winners) has worked since 1993, yet it fights the disposition effect — our temptation to bank winners and cling to losers, chasing casino losses, “cutting our flowers and watering our weeds.” Timing cuts both ways: six-month winners keep winning, three-year winners revert — the foundation of contrarianism — but calling the market's top or bottom is near-impossible, which is why Edmans bought heavily in late 2008 content to be “80 percent right.” And the closing wisdom, after Joe Kennedy's 1928 exit and Trump's well-timed memecoin: your self-worth should have nothing to do with your net worth — a rookie conceit, as Andrew's intro has it, that only somebody as smart as Isaac Newton would fall for. About the Guest Alex Edmans is Professor of Finance at London Business School and a leading expert on market psychology. His research has featured in the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and on the BBC, and he has advised sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and asset managers worldwide. He is the author of May Contain Lies, an Amazon number-one bestseller disc...

Germany's AfD party wins a resounding election in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt with almost 45 per cent of the vote. Ulrich Siegmund, the candidate vying to be the state premier pledges the party will not compromise if it comes to power. Investors attempt to look beyond President Trump's threat to cut off top trading partners if the Federal Reserve fails to cut interest rates. Markets have priced in a 60 per cent chance of a rate hike in September following August's jobs data. Brent nears $100 a barrel as the U.S. and Iran engage in fire across the weekend. The U.S. military said it had targeted 3 Iranian oil tankers following missile launches at two American vessels.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Makwe Masilela of Makwe Fund Managers discusses the end of the US earnings season, JSE performance, commodities and resources. He also looks at China's weaker-than-expected GDP, US debt ceiling, share buybacks and the rise in Brent crude above $90 a barrel amid heightened Gulf tensions. SAfm Market Update - Podcasts and live stream

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A stronger-than-expected US jobs report rattled Wall Street on Friday, fuelling expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike and pushing bond yields higher. The ASX is poised for a steady open as attention turns to the RBA, with several officials speaking this week. Plus, besides inflation, what else is driving bond yields higher around the world? Join James Gruber, Equity Market Strategist, and Gillian Bowen, Head of Media and Markets at CommSec, as they take you through all the key numbers. Check out our Market News page Follow us on:InstagramLinkedInYouTubeTikTok The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What caused bond yields to surge this week? And why is Nvidia expanding its presence in the AI boom? Plus, how did markets react to Apple's new CEO in his first week? Host Shradha Dinesh discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down why rising interest rates may not derail the AI-driven economy, bitcoin's path to new highs and the four-year cycle debate, and how AI agents are already reshaping markets, business management, and crypto adoption. We also cover tokenization, portfolio allocation, and why a 0% crypto weighting no longer makes sense.========================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ========================Uphold is the easiest way to buy and sell crypto unlike any other platform allowing you to trade in just one step between any supported asset. Check them out at https://www.uphold.com/pomp/ This video includes a paid sponsorship with Uphold. I'm compensated by Uphold for promoting its products and services and may receive commissions from referrals. Terms apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Digital assets are risky and may result in the total loss of your capital.========================0:00 - Intro0:58 - Why interest rates won't derail the AI-driven economy13:43 - Bitcoin, stocks & the money printing trade20:28 - Tokenization, AI agents & the next wave of investment opportunities22:42 - Bitcoin's path to $100K & the four-year cycle debate29:11 - AI agents are already changing how business gets done35:07 - Markets never sleep: how agents are reshaping trading38:06 - Managing AI agents like a team 46:01 - Using AI to cut through market fear 52:01 - Why every portfolio needs crypto exposure

What caused bond yields to surge this week? And why is Nvidia expanding its presence in the AI boom? Plus, how did markets react to Apple's new CEO in his first week? Host Shradha Dinesh discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Sep 4, 2026 – Oil is back above $90, the August jobs report has kept a Fed rate hike in play, and market breadth has weakened even as the S&P 500 remains near its highs. At the same time, AI spending continues to look exceptionally strong, and several areas...

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. In the week that the UN voted for the Correct the Map” resolution, which replaces the traditional world map with one that more accurately reflects the size … Continue reading "Mirror Mirror: Markets Wrestle With A Matter Of Perspective!"

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Investors have plenty to digest this month, from economic data to central-bank decisions. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets outlines what could drive the next bout of volatility.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Today, several catalysts for more volatility later this month.It's Friday, September 4th at 2pm in London.Over more than a century of market history, Septembers have tended to see more volatility than the average month. You can't exactly set your watch by it, but the trend is definitely there. As investors come back from summer and capital market activity restarts in earnest, things historically tend to move.This idea seems especially relevant this year. Despite the headlines, it was a pretty calm summer for markets. Since early June, U.S. stocks, yields, and credit were all modestly higher, and they got there with minimal movement. The realized volatility – that is how much these markets are moving on a daily basis – has been historically low.September offers a number of catalysts that could test that.First and foremost is the Fed. Inflation remains above the central bank's target, and markets are pricing a roughly two out of three chance of a rate hike at the September 16th meeting. That's more uncertainty this close to a meeting than we've had in a while – and the impact goes far beyond a single decision. Live meetings from the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank also loom in September.September is also a month that historically sees unusually heavy capital market activity. That makes sense. If you're a corporate and looking to raise money, it's often better to wait until investors are back from the summer before going out looking for those funds.But this September could be unusually active, given a growing IPO pipeline and continued funding needs from AI-related construction. And so, it's fair to say that even adjusting for September's usually heavy pace, there's an unusually wide range of outcomes around where capital market activity could land this month.Investors are also coming back from the summer with major uncertainty still hanging over global energy markets. Morgan Stanley's commodity team still sees global energy flows as severely restricted and recently raised their forecast for oil prices, seeing them reach about $100 a barrel in the fourth quarter of this year.The price of what's in that barrel is becoming even more extreme, with the price of diesel fuel in Europe up 140 percent since January 1st. And so, as inventories continue to draw down and questions around the duration of this conflict persist, both factors could drive more market movements.The good news is that while Septembers have historically been more volatile months, they're not necessarily a bellwether. And that could apply again. By month-end, we should have a much better idea of the Fed's path, the scale of capital market activity, and the state of energy supply.But until then, the level of expected volatility across many markets, particularly interest rate and foreign exchange markets, remains unusually low. Given this backdrop, we think those levels of expected volatility can rise.Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Stocks tumble even after a better-than-expected August jobs report, sending odds of a rate hike higher yet again. Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi explains why the latest employment numbers could be overstating the strength of the economy. Then, D.A. Davidson's Gil Luria lays out his expectations for Oracle earnings expected after Thursday's market close and what it could mean for the broader AI trade. Plus, Lululemon tumbles to eight-year lows, AMC CEO's war of words with Robinhood and what to expect from Apple's product event next week. Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Sep 4, 2026 – We are witnessing one of the most significant macroeconomic shifts in over half a century. US energy reserves are approaching operational limits as they are drawn down to buffer disruptions from the Iran conflict, while the energy sector faces a multi-trillion...

Sep 3, 2026 – Gold just ripped more than $700 higher in a single month—and according to one of the most accurate commodity forecasters we speak with, this is only the beginning. In today's FS Insider interview, Jeff Christian explains why the recent rate-driven...

What if you don't need more money to pay off your debt? What if you just need to see what's already in your house? That's the pattern hiding inside a story in 2 Kings 4. A widow. A dead husband. A creditor at the door. And one small flask of olive oil that God multiplied until her debt was gone. This episode was recorded live from one of our workshops. Linda and I walk through the whole story, verse by verse. Then we pull five simple steps out of it for paying off debt fast: Name your need. Take inventory of your house. Gather your jars. Shut your door. And pour your flask. We also tell our own debt payoff story, starting with a blog that made $100 a month. And why students in our Mission Driven Millionaire coaching program have paid off $17,000, $25,000, even $65,000 of debt in a matter of months… This isn't a budgeting lecture. It isn't a "just have more faith" pep talk either. It's a biblical formula for getting in step with how God works. And it might change how you see your debt for good. So grab a notebook. You're going to want to write this one down. If you enjoyed this, we'd love to invite you to apply for our Mission Driven Millionaire cohort starting soon - can you learn more at: https://seedtime.com/apply   What We Cover Here's a little of what we cover in this episode: The 5-step biblical pattern we found hiding in a story most people skim past Why the widow almost missed her own miracle (and how we almost missed ours) The one line in this story that changes what "faith" actually means for your money A simple way to tell if an idea is from God or just your own anxiety talking The real story behind how we paid off all our debt, starting with a blog making $100 a month Why "getting out of debt" was never supposed to be the finish line What happened when one of our own financial mentors told us we were making a huge mistake   Bible Verses Mentioned 2 Kings 4:1-7 Proverbs 3:9-10 Proverbs 11:14 2 Chronicles 7:14 Ephesians 3:20   Resources Mentioned Simple Money, Rich Life Mission Driven Millionaire program True Financial Freedom course   Disclaimer Obligatory legal disclaimer: I'm a financial educator, not your financial advisor, investment advisor, tax pro, or lawyer. This channel is for general education, not personalized advice, and nothing here should be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell, or use any specific investment, account, or financial product. I'm just sharing what I'm doing, what I'm learning, and what I find interesting. Markets can be humbling. Investing involves risk, including the risk of losing money, and my results are personal, may not be typical, and are not guaranteed. Do your own research, use wisdom, and talk with a qualified professional before making financial decisions. Some links are to our resources and some are affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. That helps keep the lights on around here, so thanks for the support.

Amar Kuchinad, CEO of Copper, joined me to discuss how the firm is building crypto and blockchain infrastructure to help institutions securely participate in digital asset markets.Topics:- TradFi's adoption of digital assets - Amar's time at the SEC and the agencies approach to crypto guidance - Can Blockchain in markets prevent another financial crisis? - Building crypto infrastructure for institutions - The future of markets 

Crypto News: The House canceled late September sessions which could put the Clarity Act passing at risk. Standard Chartered brings spot crypto trading to Dubai FX platform. AMC CEO is against Robinhood AMC stock tokenization.

A new economic order for the AI era looms over talks at the European House – Ambrosetti Forum, as policymakers and business leaders gather at Lake Como. Equities rally and yields ease, while Norway's sovereign wealth fund floats unwinding some of its Treasury holdings by roughly $80 billion. Today's U.S. jobs report has traders locked in a dead heat, with CME FedWatch futures on the fence as investors look for clues on the Federal Reserve's next policy move. And Volkswagen's board approves an overhaul that will slash 50,000 jobs and halve its vehicle line-up after a tense standoff with unions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Markets are going crazy, gold is being repatriated as bond yields rise. Inflation remains high partially stoked by AI investment, while ordinary people seem to be left behind, so what to do? Well, I caught up with sound money advocate Lynette Zang, who is the Founder and CEO of Zang Enterprises. We spoke about the … Continue reading "The Future Is Genuinely In Our Own Hands: With Lynette Zang"

Kevin Maney: The Category Creation Formula for Winning Markets in the AI Era AI is making products easier to build, but meaningful differentiation harder to sustain. A stronger feature set, a faster model, or simply adding an “AI-powered” label may not be enough to convince customers that a new market should exist in the first place. Kevin Maney, bestselling author, technology commentator, and founding partner of Category Design Advisors, joins me to unpack the Category Creation Formula: Context + Missing + Innovation = New Market Category. Developed through nearly a decade of fieldwork with more than 50 companies, the framework offers a practical way to understand when markets are ready to change: identify what has shifted around the customer, uncover the newly urgent need that shift creates, and then design the innovation the market is ready to embrace. Our conversation moves beyond conventional product-market fit toward a more fundamental question: What would market-product fit look like? We explore why being first matters less than establishing the accepted dominant design, why competitors can actually validate rather than weaken a new category, and why successful category creation starts outside the organization, not with the technology already sitting inside it. In an era of AI abundance, compressed innovation cycles, and increasingly crowded markets, this conversation offers a different way to think about growth. It is particularly relevant for CEOs, transformation leaders, investors, and founders asking not simply how to build a better product, but how to create a market that wants it. KEY TAKEAWAYS What I found particularly compelling in this conversation with Kevin is his challenge to one of the most deeply embedded assumptions in innovation: that we should build a product and then find its market. Kevin turns that logic around with the idea of market-product fit. Instead of starting with what our technology can do, we should start by understanding what has changed in the world around our customers, what new problem that change has created, and what innovation could solve it. His Category Creation Formula, Context + Missing + Innovation, gives leaders a simple but powerful way to make that shift. I also loved Kevin's perspective on category leadership. Being first is not necessarily the objective. The real goal is to establish the dominant design that shapes how customers understand and expect the category to work. And, counterintuitively, competition can help because other players entering the market validate the category in customers' minds. For me, this is a particularly important lesson in today's crowded AI landscape. Finally, Kevin makes a distinction I think every leader should consider: using AI to make the existing business more efficient is only one side of the opportunity. The bigger question is what entirely new products, services, and ways of operating become possible because AI has changed the context. As AI itself becomes foundational and ubiquitous, the differentiator will increasingly be what humans do with it, and the ideas they create about what comes next. BEST MOMENTS “Category design is a strategy. And when I think of positioning and marketing, those are things that a company does.” – Kevin Maney [13:52] “Product-market fit has led a lot of people to think we'll build this product and figure out a market to put it into. And we talked about it, saying, like, it's actually market-product fit.” – Kevin Maney [25:00] “Your ultimate goal is to win the dominant design. It's not to be the day one, first mover, be the first one to say, ‘We're creating this category.'” – Kevin Maney [29:57] “Your goal is not to wipe out all competition, your goal is to be the dominant design and make all of your competitors follow you.” – Kevin Maney [29:57] “I actually believe that the big AI models... that's going to become, at some point, as boring as the internet or as electricity. What excites me is what you can do with it.” – Kevin Maney [37:26] “AI is trained on the past, and it's only going to understand the past, and it's going to be the humans that create the future.” – Kevin Maney [49:19]   ABOUT THE GUEST Kevin Maney is a bestselling author, award-winning technology commentator, and founding partner of Category Design Advisors. He is the co-author of The Category Creation Formula and Play Bigger, and spent 22 years as a technology journalist at USA Today. His work has also appeared in publications including Newsweek, Fortune, The Atlantic, and Wired. Kevin helps leadership teams identify, define, and develop new market categories. Through nearly a decade of category-design work with more than 50 companies, his focus has included market-product fit, dominant design, the adjacent possible, strategic points of view, and the leadership alignment required to translate innovation into an understood and adopted market choice.   ABOUT THE HOST Sabine VanderLinden is a corporate strategist turned entrepreneur and the CEO of Alchemy Crew Ventures. She leads venture-client labs that help Fortune 500 companies adopt and scale cutting-edge technologies from global tech ventures. A builder of accelerators, investor, and co-editor of the bestseller The INSURTECH Book, Sabine is known for asking the uncomfortable questions—about AI governance, risk, and trust. On Scouting for Growth, she decodes how real growth happens—where capital, collaboration, and courage meet. If this episode sparked your thinking, follow Sabine VanderLinden on LinkedIn, Twitter, and Instagram for more insights. And if you're interested in sponsoring the podcast, reach out to the team at hello@alchemycrew.ventures

Our Global Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats explains how tightening supply and shrinking buffers are pushing Brent prices up again, and what that would mean for fuel costs and energy markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Martijn Rats: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodities Strategist.Today: why the oil market is tightening, and why we now see Brent reaching $100 per barrel later this year.It's Thursday, September 3rd, at 3pm in London.It has been an extraordinary summer for oil. Brent — the global benchmark price for crude oil and the reference point for most of the world's oil trade — traded above $110 per barrel in mid-May, fell to $71 by early June, climbed back above $100 three weeks later, and then dropped again to around $79 per barrel. More recently, prices have moved higher again. But the question now is whether that is just another temporary swing. Or whether there is a sign that the underlying market has changed.We think it has changed. Supply is tightening, inventories are falling, and some of the buffers that helped absorb earlier disruptions are fading.The clearest evidence is in inventories. Crude oil sitting on the water fell from nearly 1.3 billion barrels in mid-July to 1.1 billion barrels recently. That was a decline of about 190 million barrels. During one four-week stretch, oil-on-water fell at the unusually high rate of 5.3 million barrels a day, the fastest four-week decline since this data series began about eight years ago. Usually, when there is such a large amount of crude oil that is brought on land, it drives up onshore oil inventories. However, not on this occasion. On a global basis, onshore crude oil inventories have fallen by another 38 million barrels over the same period. That means that those offshore barrels arriving were being used straight away rather than put into land-based storage.The biggest supply issue is still the Middle East. Crude flows from the Strait of Hormuz briefly recovered to about 15 million barrels a day after the June Memorandum of Understanding. That was close to the pre-conflict level. More recently, however, they have been running again around about 7 million. Now, Red Sea exports have also fallen sharply, from about 4 - 4.5 million barrels a day in March and April to around about 1.5 million barrels a day at the moment. Therefore, total regional exports are still up from the lows in March and April, but they are sharply down from that late June peak. Another source of support is fading: strategic petroleum reserves. Globally, those releases added around 2.5 million barrels a day to supply in March and April. But that has fallen sharply, and we do not anticipate material further releases from global SPRs after September.Then China is important, too. Its seaborne crude imports are normally around 10 to 11 million barrels a day but briefly fell as low as 5 million barrels a day leaving more oil available elsewhere. Now, China's buying activity still appears low, but at a minimum it has stabilized, and there are tentative signs of an increase. If Chinese imports have stopped falling and possibly go into reverse, they can no longer free up additional barrels for buyers elsewhere, making the global oil market tighter. So why hasn't crude become even more constrained? It's because of refineries. Global refinery outages are running 5 - 6 million barrels a day above normal. Although supply of crude oil is constrained, this means that demand for crude is also reduced. Now, the result of that is that the tightness in the system has instead shown up in refined products rather than in crude. And diesel is the clearest example of this; and the one most likely to be felt throughout the economy, since diesel prices feed straight through into trucking, freight, farming costs, and many other areas. The front-month diesel benchmark in the U.S. was recently around $195 per barrel, versus Brent at $95 per barrel. The difference between the value of a refined product and the crude used to make it is called a crack spread. For diesel, that crack spread reached around $100 per barrel, an all-time high. Over time, that gives refiners a very strong incentive to bring back capacity where they can. If they do, crude demand should rise, whilst inventories are already falling and Middle East supply so far remains constrained. We now expect a full recovery in Middle East supply to take well into 2027. On that path, oil inventories should keep falling throughout the fourth quarter of this year as well as the first quarter of next year. We now forecast Brent to average $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter.Now, for much of this year, the oil market had several shock absorbers: strategic reserves, abundant barrels at sea, and unusually weak Chinese imports all helped. Those cushions are thinner now. That leaves less room for another disruption, just as the road back to normal supply is getting longer. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Amidst rising inflation, ongoing wars in Iran and Israel, and the U.S. national debt climbing to a record $40 trillion, the global bond market is rattled. Mary Childs, host of the talk show podcast Mary in America, author of The Bond King, and former co-host of Planet Money, explains why bond yields are so high right now and what it all means for the global economy, and for your wallet.c/o: Blue Arauz, via Pexels Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, joins Jennifer Sanasie for a special edition of Markets Outlook from the New York Stock Exchange to unpack the market's overnight flip from despair to euphoria. Hougan explains why a traditional 60/40 portfolio is "100% fiat currency," why holding 0% Bitcoin has become a misallocation, and where he's allocating now. Plus, why he gives Bitcoin a good chance of reclaiming $100K this year and sees $1.3 million by 2035.  Stellar Development Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon also joins to unpack Stellar crossing $4 billion in tokenized real-world assets, a 400% jump since January. - Timecodes: 00:00 - Matt Hougan Joins Markets Outlook 00:45 - Despair to Euphoria: What Flipped the Market 03:20 - AI Stocks vs. Bitcoin 05:49 - Brand New Rails: Stellar Crosses $4B in Tokenized RWAs 08:05 - Bitcoin, Zcash, and the Tokenization Trade 14:15 - Matt's Bitcoin Price Prediction This Year and By 2035 - This episode is brought to you by Grayscale, the world's largest digital asset-focused investment platform. Grayscale's mission is to make digital asset investing simple and open to every investor. Learn more at grayscale.com. - This episode is brought to you by RealFi, a smarter stablecoin, backed by real-world assets. Join the Testnet now at realfi.co. - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Amidst rising inflation, ongoing wars in Iran and Israel, and the U.S. national debt climbing to a record $40 trillion, the global bond market is rattled.On Today's Show:Mary Childs, host of the talk show podcast Mary in America, author of The Bond King, and former co-host of Planet Money, explains why bond yields are so high right now and what it all means for the global economy—and for your wallet. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Sep 2, 2026 – The bond vigilantes are back—and oil is fueling the fire. Kurt Kallaus reveals why we're "living on borrowed barrels," how draining reserves could jolt markets by October, and the surprising sectors he's buying while....

Crypto News: SEC proposes transfer agent rule, sets event to figure out round-the-clock U.S. trading. XRP ETFs pull in $170 million over 11 days. Goldman tops institutional holders. 21 major global banks including Bank of America, Citi, GoldmanSachs, DeutscheBank, and UBS, just committed to launching a joint stablecoin company, targeting a USD-denominated stablecoin to go live in H1 2027.

Today, a look at markets pausing to take a breath after the recent brutal rise in bond yields. The biggest mover Wednesday and Thursday was the Japanese yen on an apparent fresh round of intervention, although some interesting dynamics are at play in the Japanese government bond market as well. Elsewhere, a look at extreme bifurcation in AI stories for single names after earnings reports. A big focus on macro and FX and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Breathlessly enthusiastic Silicon Valley types talk up the most optimistic outlook for AI I have heard anywhere. Who am I to say they won't be right, but it was a bit nauseating listening, nonetheless with interesting details here and there. Gil Duran wrote the ingeniously titled Nerd Reich, a book charging that a tech oligarchy is undermining our democratic institutions and trying to establish a techno-authoritarian state. He traces the intellectual backdrop of its adherents like Peter Thiel, etc. A long form youtube video of the author himself talking about the book. An exchange on X about China's huge debt load and its implications depending on how it is unwound - Japanese-style or otherwise. The deepest of dives on "what really happened at Jackson Hole" - not the ramblings of Fed Chair Warsh, but rather on the actual theme of Jackson Hole this year, which was Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

A landmark card sale creates attention. It also creates assumptions.The 2025 Topps Royalty John Cena WrestleMania Patch Autograph 1/1 has reached six figures with time left in the auction. What does that number tell us about Cena cards, wrestling cards, and other markets where sales data is thin?Brett breaks down the difference between a signal and a comp, introduces the evidence ladder, and shares a process collectors can use before buying, selling, or repricing a card.One sale can be historic without becoming universal.Sign up for Hobby Jobs and The Weekly Rip for freeGet your free copy of Collecting For Keeps: Finding Meaning In A Hobby Built On HypeStart your 7 day free trial of Stacking Slabs Patreon Today[Distributed on Sunday] Sign up for the Stacking Slabs Weekly Rip Newsletter using this linkFollow Stacking Slabs: | Twitter | Instagram | Facebook | Tiktok ★ Support this podcast on Patreon ★

Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, joins Jennifer Sanasie for a special edition of Markets Outlook from the New York Stock Exchange to unpack the market's overnight flip from despair to euphoria. Hougan explains why a traditional 60/40 portfolio is "100% fiat currency," why holding 0% Bitcoin has become a misallocation, and where he's allocating now. Plus, why he gives Bitcoin a good chance of reclaiming $100K this year and sees $1.3 million by 2035.  Stellar Development Foundation CEO Denelle Dixon also joins to unpack Stellar crossing $4 billion in tokenized real-world assets, a 400% jump since January. - Timecodes: 00:00 - Matt Hougan Joins Markets Outlook 00:45 - Despair to Euphoria: What Flipped the Market 03:20 - AI Stocks vs. Bitcoin 05:49 - Brand New Rails: Stellar Crosses $4B in Tokenized RWAs 08:05 - Bitcoin, Zcash, and the Tokenization Trade 14:15 - Matt's Bitcoin Price Prediction This Year and By 2035 - This episode is brought to you by Grayscale, the world's largest digital asset-focused investment platform. Grayscale's mission is to make digital asset investing simple and open to every investor. Learn more at grayscale.com. - This episode is brought to you by RealFi, a smarter stablecoin, backed by real-world assets. Join the Testnet now at realfi.co. - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those earnings forecasts, the extraordinary concentration of expected growth among a handful of large technology companies, the role of AI investment, and whether today's valuations already price in too much optimism. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Jobs, JOLTS, & Economic Number Previews 5:01 - Markets are Stuck 11:04 - Vacation & Weekend Plans 12:23 - The Fed: What Will Warsh Do With Rates? 16:12 - The Truth About "Fed Buy Backs" 17:57 - Inflation Expectations are not Reason to Raise Rates 21:29 - No Guidance from the Fed? 23:48 - Valuations - What We Know vs What We Think We Know 28:48 - It all Comes Down to AI 32:12 - The Issue with PEG Ratios 36:12 - Dealing with Earnings Estimates Revisions 37:55 - How AI is Like the Railroads 39:34 -The Use of AI is Growing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/OOZIdB7YSsw -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Stuck in Neutral," https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?" hhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-valuation-expensive-cape-or-cheap-peg/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets #StockMarket #MarketValuation #Investing #SP500 #ArtificialIntelligence

Rideshare Rodeo Podcast  September 2nd, 2026 In this episode I am joined by The Mad Dasher and what begins as a simple Uber Eats discussion gets much deeper into the rabbit hole. Join Daniel and myself in this discussion regarding the reality of what gig app workers deal with on the daily. Attention-iPhone Users, the GIGU app is now available, sign up below:  https://www.gigu.app/us/ios 

US equity futures are slightly firmer, while Asian markets are mixed and European equities are mostly higher. Markets are finding some support from stabilizing bond yields and energy prices, helping AI and other growth stocks after recent pressure. Attention remains on the US-Iran conflict after President Trump suggested the latest round of strikes would be short-lived, easing some concerns around further escalation and oil supply. The yen is also in focus following its sharp rise and speculation over possible intervention.Companies Mentioned: Berkshire Hathaway, Uber Technologies, Apollo Global Management

Philadelphia is trying to fight back against betting markets, and so we dive into what they are, who they're benefitting and why the government thinks they're valuable. Plus, Gloria Steinem is dead, and we discuss her legacy. Plus, a mass shooting in Minneapolis has people wondering why the shooter wasn't arrested previously.

Is the stock market dangerously expensive, or are investors overlooking strong future earnings growth? The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio has reached 41, yet the PEG ratio, which incorporates expected earnings growth, is signaling one of the cheapest market valuations in decades. Michael Lebowitz and Lance Roberts examine why these two popular valuation measures are sending completely opposite signals. The key difference comes down to expectations: CAPE relies on historical earnings, while PEG depends heavily on Wall Street forecasts for future growth. We look at the reliability of those earnings forecasts, the extraordinary concentration of expected growth among a handful of large technology companies, the role of AI investment, and whether today's valuations already price in too much optimism. 0:00 INTRO 1:04 - Jobs, JOLTS, & Economic Number Previews 5:01 - Markets are Stuck 11:04 - Vacation & Weekend Plans 12:23 - The Fed: What Will Warsh Do With Rates? 16:12 - The Truth About "Fed Buy Backs" 17:57 - Inflation Expectations are not Reason to Raise Rates 21:29 - No Guidance from the Fed? 23:48 - Valuations - What We Know vs What We Think We Know 28:48 - It all Comes Down to AI 32:12 - The Issue with PEG Ratios 36:12 - Dealing with Earnings Estimates Revisions 37:55 - How AI is Like the Railroads 39:34 -The Use of AI is Growing Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/OOZIdB7YSsw -------- Watch our previous show, "What Should You Expect From a Financial Planner?" https://youtube.com/live/dRd4fGgwrkc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Market Stuck in Neutral," https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?" hhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/market-valuation-expensive-cape-or-cheap-peg/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets #StockMarket #MarketValuation #Investing #SP500 #ArtificialIntelligence

Markets remain trapped in a frustrating sideways consolidation as money rapidly rotates between Technology, Healthcare, Momentum, and Value. Momentum stocks remain under pressure, while large-cap Value and Quality are holding up better. With volatility still compressed and markets offering little directional conviction, Lance Roberts explains why investors should avoid chasing rotations or making rash portfolio moves until the market finally shows its hand. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/bTDPi28yJcg --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #ValueStocks #SeptemberMarkets

Markets are digesting shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve, stubbornly high interest rates, and continued uncertainty surrounding Iran. Doug and Greg discuss why government debt, not 5% interest rates, may be the bigger concern, how higher yields are changing the bond market, and why geopolitical tensions haven't derailed stocks. Plus, they look at what prediction markets are saying about the upcoming midterm elections, explain why politics shouldn't dictate your long-term investment strategy, and the good news behind interest rates. Key Takeaways 00:02 — The markets react to the Fed 03:00 — Government spending & the cost of debt 05:05 — Are 5% interest rates really that high? 08:10 — Households are in better shape than governments 09:30 — Iran's impact on rates, oil, & inflation 15:43 — What prediction markets say about the midterms 19:26 — Why politics shouldn't change your portfolio 20:36 — The good news about 5% bond yields View Transcript Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.

Today's Headlines: The US launched strikes in the Strait of Hormuz for the second day in a row without saying what they were targeting, two more oil tankers got attacked, and JD Vance's Yale buddy Dan Driscoll quit as Army Secretary after Hegseth got paranoid about their friendship and blocked Driscoll's plans to modernize the Army for drone warfare — so the guy who wanted to prepare for the future of war got pushed out by the guy who built himself a salon at the Pentagon. On the financial beat, Global bond markets are selling off, US interest rates just hit a 20-year high, and what that means for you personally is that your credit card, mortgage, and car loan just got more expensive — thanks in part to the Iran war, oil prices, and everyone powerful being addicted to borrowing money. In other disturbing news, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that Trump can keep building his ballroom-bunker, with Roberts writing in his dissent that it's probably illegal but the lawsuit didn't have standing. A USPS whistleblower came forward saying the Post Office defied court orders while building Trump's mail ballot system, the voter list portal states need to use doesn't exist yet, and tens of thousands of ballots could get rejected as a result — Democrats responded with a strongly worded letter to the Post Office, yep, the Post Office. In things we can no longer safely ingest news, Horizon Organic chocolate milk was recalled across Walmart, Target, and Whole Foods for early spoilage, which is annoying but at least it's not glass. And finally, Republicans invented a "midterm convention" in Dallas where a photo with Trump costs $88,000 and a photo with JD Vance costs $35,000.  Resources/Articles mentioned: Axios: Why Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned NYT: Bond Sell-Off Threatens to Squeeze Borrowers Around the World WSJ: Trump Says Communities That Oppose Data Centers Risk Becoming ‘Backwards and Poor' Axios: Supreme Court allows Trump's ballroom construction to proceed Axios: USPS whistleblower warns new ballot system could fail USA Today: Nearly 54K cases of chocolate milk recalled. See affected products WSJ: An $88,600 Photo With Trump: GOP Hopes to Raise Millions During Convention Subscribe to the Betches News Room and join the Morning Announcements group chat. Go to: betchesnews.substack.com Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Midterm elections, backlash against data centers and a U.S.-China summit. Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss themes that could test investor confidence in the coming months.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research.Michael Zezas: Today, we'll look ahead to public policy catalysts that matter for investors this fall.It's Wednesday, September 2nd at 10:30am in New York.Okay, Ariana, there's a few days left in the summer, and investors are already starting to think about what's going to happen this fall. And there's a pretty heavy calendar; everything from midterm elections to some pretty important diplomatic dates. High level, what do you think people need to focus on?Ariana Salvatore: So, I'll start with probably the most consequential catalyst of the list that you mentioned, and that's the midterm elections. Obviously, not until November 3rd, but the debate is going to start to emerge over the coming weeks – in terms of if Democrats were to win just one chamber versus both chambers; if Republicans were to keep control; what could that mean for markets? And what are the durable policy themes?I think in this context, the biggest debate far and away is on data center pushback. And this has transitioned from more of a macro thematic. So, investors trying to understand the potential implications for the CapEx build-out, to more of a micro really granular question, right? Which races are the ones that we need to watch? Where are there states or jurisdictions that projects that are pending could be possibly called into question?And that's, sort of, the continuous debate that I've had recently with investors, trying to pinpoint it more precisely to figure out where exactly the build-up could be impacted.Michael Zezas: So, I hear from investors this general concern that the midterm elections will reveal that it's become a consensus preference amongst American voters and members of both parties to slow down on data center spending. Or perhaps even stop it or something more severe like that.What type of midterm election outcome would point to that as a possibility?Ariana Salvatore: Well, I would start by saying the politics here are scrambled in the sense that there's no clear fault lines when it comes to Democrats or Republicans around data center opposition, right? We are seeing some pretty notable pivots even from lawmakers that in the past were supportive of data centers. So that's why I think we have to zoom into these really specific races.And there I would say there's some governorships that matter actually more than some of the Senate races; because remember, governors also in certain states can appoint public utility commissioners. And in places like Texas, that actually could be a really consequential outcome for the 2026 midterm elections, more so than who ends up sitting in Congress on a very federal level.Michael Zezas: Okay. And so, would you say it's fair then that folks running for office who are challenging incumbents in both parties, who are expressing a desire for more regulation on data centers, that it kind of cuts across both parties? So, this is more about folks challenging incumbents than it is about one party or the other having a specific view on AI and the AI industrial build-out via data centers?Ariana Salvatore: That's right. It's hard to sort into these really generic party umbrellas, and there are a few nuances under the surface. If you look at something like Ohio. The governor's race there, both the Republican and Democrat candidates are proposing a conditional build-out, basically. So, if certain projects meet criteria, they're going to be allowed to proceed.In other races, like in Texas and Pennsylvania governorships, you're seeing the opponents basically propose a more restrictive form of the pause or directive that's already in place. So, I would say it's not very clean in terms of Democrat or Republican-led. And that just gives us conviction that this is going to persist and remain an issue even after November. Even though the federal policy incentives we don't think are likely going to change.Michael Zezas: So, we could see investors taking a signal about the AI data center build-out from an outcome where incumbents don't do particularly well.Now, I know we're still doing work on this, but what's the current thinking about – even if we were to see a result like that, how much should investors be concerned that the expectations around spending on data centers might not be realized because of new policy, other regulatory changes that would come as a result of the midterms?Ariana Salvatore: So, I would say overall, we are still very constructive on AI CapEx, right? So, our internet team is still forecasting over a trillion dollars of spending for the hyperscalers next year, and there are a few reasons for that, one of which has to do with this AI sovereignty theme that we've been writing about.So, this notion that governments are increasingly wanting to control their own stack and their own AI capabilities, so that's driving a bit of the spend. On the other hand, we are starting to see mitigation measures from some of these companies to appease some of that local community backlash. And there we don't see a one-size-fits-all approach.We see very tailored solutions depending on what the source of the pushback is. Just to give a few examples. When you have communities that care about electricity price increases, for example, many hyperscalers have signed on to the Ratepayer Protection Pledge. When you have communities that care about the environmental impact, you've got companies like Google who said they want to put forward a regulatory framework for water usage; Amazon also disclosing their water usage in data centers.And so, like I said, there's not really a uniformity to these responses, but enough that we think will mitigate the concern and still leaves us constructive on the overall build-out.Michael Zezas: Right. And you actually bring up a really interesting point on the idea of AI sovereignty. Some of the kind of similar concerns that are driving voter anxiety around the build-out of AI, might also reinforce some of the spending that has to happen there. To the extent that voters and policymakers are concerned that AI should be controlled and aligned with American values would require some spending to make sure that there's sufficient supply chains and other variables in play that the U.S. is in control of.Is that fair?Ariana Salvatore: That's right. That's one of the clear policy consequences we see from this shift in sovereign AI and governments seeking that control. The other one is, of course, the potential for further tech restrictions and divergence between the U.S. and China on AI specifically.Michael Zezas: So, on the topic of China and the U.S., one date that you point out here is September 24th, a date when the U.S. and China are going to be meeting again. What's on the table for discussion? What do investors need to know? Obviously, there have been concerns over the past year about the level of tariffs and trade tensions between the two.Is there anything here that we need to pay specific attention to?Ariana Salvatore: So, we think the overarching goal for both sides is to maintain this managed stability that was established in the May summit too. At that point, the clear deliverables were around trade, right? So agricultural purchases, Boeing purchases, et cetera.We think there's likely some small incremental change to those deliverables, in particular when it comes to AI dialogue. But notably, we think there's potential for escalation into that summit, again, within the bounds of what we call tactical escalation. But we do think that there's plenty of room for more policy escalation between both the U.S. and China in line with some recent action that we've seen over the past few weeks.Michael Zezas: Got it. And there's also a couple of important considerations around fiscal policy, funding, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Can you talk us through that a bit?Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, so fiscal's been in the headlines recently as well, just given the Treasury buybacks and crossing that $40 trillion threshold. And I think in that context, it sort of puts a renewed spotlight on government funding.There we see a potential latent risk of another shutdown come December, right? So, we saw a continuing resolution pass both the House and the Senate and sort of punt that debate until after the elections.And then the NDAA is the annual bill that funds the Pentagon. It has to be done in December on a bipartisan basis. So, the elections have the potential to shift the incentive structure for some lawmakers, and we could see these, kind of, re-emerge as really big debates towards the end of the year.Michael Zezas: Now, interestingly enough, we've got a bunch of catalysts to pay attention to: midterms, the potential for data center pushback as a consequence of it, a U.S.-China summit, which we think is going to result in the continuation of managed stability, and fiscal catalysts where, you know, the debt and the deficit have been in scope and concern, particularly for equity investors. All of that is happening against a backdrop where the historical norm going into midterm elections – is one where the equity market tends to struggle a bit. Is that fair?Ariana Salvatore: Yeah. So, we tend to see a little bit of negative seasonality into the midterm elections, and our equity strategy team has pointed out the potential for a knee-jerk reaction if you were to see Democratic outperformance in November. We think that's not likely to be durable. We think it's more so the case that investors are going to pull forward the anticipation of Democrats doing well in the 2028 presidential election.We don't think that's going to be a long-lasting theme in the market, but it's typically in line with what we see during elections.Michael Zezas: So, this idea that there are going to be seasonal challenges to the equity market is important to take on board, particularly when there are a lot of policy narratives which in the investor's mind could reinforce the price action that comes with weak seasonality.But our view is that you need to keep your eye on the secular trends here underpinning economic growth, including the AI build-out, which we think at the moment is going to be less sensitive to some of these policy outcomes than it might seem – given strong campaign rhetoric around restricting data centers.Is that a fair statement?Ariana Salvatore: Yes, that's right.Michael Zezas: Great. Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Pleasure speaking with you, Mike.Michael Zezas: And thanks for listening. Ariana, what should our audience do next?Ariana Salvatore: If you enjoyed the podcast, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Bijan Maleki and Kris Bullock are back to break down a potentially important shift in the macro setup for crypto. With the U.S. Treasury stepping up long-dated bond buybacks, long-end yields are falling and the dollar is weakening, conditions that could become increasingly supportive for bitcoin, gold, and other risk assets.

September – here we are and the volatility starts. Bear Invasions – is this something we should pay attention to? Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too. Bombing Iran again. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - September - here we are and the volatility starts - Bear Invasions - is this something we should pay attention to? - Target is in the hotseat, Good-Good too - Bombing Iran again - and again. Markets - Bonds - moving higher - Warsh and Bessent challenged - NVDA earnings - price hikes - Employment Report coming this Friday - Dell earnings - WOWWWW! DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com LAKE AMERICA - Google Maps now shows "Lake America" to U.S. users after the federal naming change. - Canadian users still see "Lake Ontario"; users elsewhere see both names. - Canada did not adopt the change, setting up an easy cross-border naming fight. OIL / IRAN - Last week - Oil dropped more than 3% as traders viewed tougher Iran sanctions as less disruptive than renewed military escalation. - Brent fell to roughly $88.58 and WTI to about $82.36. - Washington stopped short of immediately targeting major Chinese banks buying Iranian oil. - Markets also reacted to hopes for improved navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. ----  OH WAIT>>>> IRAN - FIGHT IS ON - We are back bombing and they are retaliating - We retaliate, they bomb - Threat: President Trump in phone interview with Fox News reporter repeats that if Iran retaliates, they will be hit harder, but he adds that if Iran retaliates for a third time "they will be totally wiped out as a country"; says any deal with Iran will not be "worth the paper it is printed on" - Oil Up ... DICK'S / FOOT LOCKER - Dick's shares plunged about 30% after earnings and guidance disappointed. - Core Dick's comps rose 4.9%, but Foot Locker comps fell 3.6%. - Management blamed weak sneaker launches, stale inventory and a highly promotional footwear market. - Dick's has already taken more than $500 million in charges tied to the Foot Locker turnaround. BASEBALL CARDS GO CASINO - Online "repack" platforms let customers buy randomized graded cards and immediately sell them back. - Prices can range from roughly $25 to thousands of dollars per pack. - The model increasingly resembles gambling: randomized payoff, instant resale value and repeat play. - Arena Club, Fanatics and others are pushing deeper into a market already generating billions in transactions. GOVERNMENT-OWNED STOCKS - Stocks with U.S. government backing face new legal and political risk around Washington taking equity stakes. - Intel surged after government investment plans surfaced; MP Materials also jumped after a Pentagon stake. - Trilogy Metals soared after a government deal, then gave back much of the move. - A lawsuit challenging the Intel arrangement could have implications for similar federal equity deals. CHINA INDUSTRIAL PROFITS - China's industrial profits rose 11.2% year over year in July. - Profit growth slowed from 15.1% in June but remained strong. - Manufacturing profits rose nearly 19%, while mining profits jumped roughly 35%. - Strong factory profits continue to contrast with weak property and domestic-demand signals. DELL EARNINGS GUIDANCE - Earnings we great - Guidance out of control - Dell sees Q3 mid-point EPS of $6.50 vs $4.46 FactSet Consensus; sees mid-point of revs at $49.00 bln vs $41.36 bln FactSet Consensus - Dell sees FY27 mid-point EPS of $25.50 vs $18.99 FactSet Consensus; sees revs mid-point of $192 bln vs $174.05 bln FactSet Consensus TARGET HALLOWEEN BACKLASH - Target pulled a children's clown costume after complaints that it resembled blackface imagery. - The company apologized and said it was reviewing how the product cleared internal approval. - The controversy adds another brand-management problem after several politically charged merchandise fights. LEGO BOOM - Lego first-half revenue jumped 21% to about $6.5 billion. - Net profit rose 32%, while consumer sales increased 22%. - More than 330 new products helped drive demand across Star Wars, Formula 1, Botanicals and other franchises. - Lego continues gaining share while expanding stores and manufacturing capacity. WAIT - WE'RE BOMBING IRAN AGAIN - U.S. forces struck Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz, the first U.S. attack on Iran in several weeks. - Iran retaliated with missile attacks targeting U.S. bases in Jordan, restarting direct military exchanges. - Oil jumped more than 2%; Brent moved back above $90 and WTI above $85. - The Strait remains the key issue: roughly 20% of global oil shipments pass through it, so actual disruption to tanker traffic matters more than the headlines. IRAN SANCTIONS - Treasury warned countries doing business with Iran could face secondary sanctions and loss of access to the dollar system. - Scott Bessent described the campaign as an "economic D-Day." - Treasury sanctioned dozens of people, companies and vessels but initially avoided major Chinese financial institutions. - The expanded sanctions reach oil, shipping, gold, aviation, technology and digital assets. JOBS REPORT / FED TEST - August payrolls hit Friday after July shocked with a 23,000 job decline. - Expectations are for only modest job growth, making revisions and the unemployment rate especially important. - Fed rate-hike odds jumped after Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole comments; a strong jobs number could push them higher. - JOLTS, ADP and ISM data provide several previews before Friday.   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter