Podcasts about markets

P.M. Edition for June 30. In the last day before its summer recess, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump's effort to upend the longstanding guarantee that virtually everyone born on American soil is a U.S. citizen. We hear from WSJ legal affairs reporter Lydia Wheeler about the legal basis for the justices' decision, and what it shows about the court's relationship with President Trump. Plus, voters in Colorado are heading to the polls for today's primary. The Journal's Elizabeth Findell joins from Denver to discuss a House race that could signal whether challengers from the left are making inroads in the Democratic Party. And the S&P and the Nasdaq closed out their best quarter since 2020. Markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang explains what drove the gains during a period of intense volatility. Alex Ossola hosts.Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains that gains in the stock market are expanding to more sectors and why investors should position quickly.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the changing equity market leadership.It's Tuesday, June 30th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Something is happening in plain sight but still isn't fully appreciated by investors. The market's leadership is changing. And as usual, by the time everyone agrees that it's happening, the easier money will probably have already been made.Coming into this year, the primary differentiation to our view was that the economic and earnings outlook were much stronger than the consensus believed. That view was built around a few simple, but powerful ideas: easy comparisons after a three year rolling recession, lean cost structures, pent-up demand, fiscal support from capex incentives and tax cuts, deregulation for the banks, and a monetary backdrop that was increasingly supportive through the liquidity channel.Putting those together, the setup looked like a classic early cycle. Revenue growth returning on top of lean cost structures leads to strong operating leverage and well above trend earnings growth.Fast forward to today, and that's exactly what has happened. The median stock in the S&P 1500 is now growing earnings at a double-digit pace, the fastest since the post-COVID boom. Revenue growth has returned, with the median stock growing its top line by 7 percent. That is a rolling recovery showing up where many investors still aren't looking.For much of this year and particularly the past few months, most investors didn't want to hear that story. The Iran conflict pushed oil sharply higher. Rate-cut expectations turned into hike expectations. Faced with these headwinds, investors crowded back into the AI trade especially semiconductors and memory in particular. To be clear, the earnings revisions in semiconductors have been spectacular. The move wasn't irrational. But when something becomes the most owned, most loved, and most obvious area of the market, it becomes harder to surprise on the upside.That's where I think we are now. The hyperscalers have started to underperform, and that may be an early warning sign for semis, which are the key beneficiaries of the AI spending boom. Earnings revision breadth for semis is pressing against historical extremes. Again, this does not mean the AI cycle is over. But it does mean that the rate of change may be peaking, and when price momentum starts to fade in a crowded trade, it can lead to significant set-backs. It can also give other parts of the market room to breathe. In short, the broadening trade is back!The equal-weighted index and small caps are outperforming again. More importantly, the groups we have been recommending – Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Regional Banks – have already started to show relative strength over the past six weeks, even though positioning and sentiment remain neutral to negative. That's the kind of combination I like: better price action, improving earnings, and investors still skeptical.One reason I've been more constructive on the consumer than others is that I've also been more bearish on oil. That view was not dependent on a grand deal between the U.S. and Iran, although that obviously helps. The signals were already there. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed, and energy stocks began underperforming from the day the conflict started.The market was telling us something before the headlines confirmed it. And longer term, I think the conflict has put the world on notice: this choke point around the Strait of Hormuz must be solved. It's no longer a risk that the world is willing to tolerate. New routes, new supply, and new energy strategies are likely coming. Necessity is the mother of invention, and I would not underestimate the world's ability to adapt.A less problematic oil backdrop helps the broadening trade too. So does the Fed, at least on rates. The June FOMC meeting told us two things: forward guidance is going to be diminished, and the reaction function is now focused more squarely on inflation.My view is that falling energy prices, peaking tariff-related inflation, and contained services and housing inflation keep the Fed on hold rather than hiking this year. If that's right, lower than expected real rates could be a positive surprise for equities and another tailwind for the broadening of performance.The key variable to watch at this point is liquidity. This Fed is unlikely to be as proactive with balance sheet support, just as the real economy needs more capital for capex and the markets are dealing with more equity and credit supply. That's the near-term real risk, especially for popular momentum trades.Bottom line, the market may look choppy and even weak at the index level, over the next month, but the message underneath is improving. Earnings are broadening, oil is falling. The shift is already under way with crowded momentum trades wobbling, and the under-owned areas of the market starting to lead.Investors can either wait for it to become more certain – or position before it becomes obvious and fully priced.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Europe's equity rally has surprised many investors. Our Europe Head of Research Product Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock discuss potential outcomes of the broadening market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Products here in Europe. Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist. Paul Walsh: And today, we're looking at whether European equities have more room to broaden – as markets assess the implications of a potential U.S.-Iran deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.It's Monday, June the 29th at 10am in London. Marina, it's always great having you on. And for our listeners out there, I think they'd be interested to hear that if we look at Europe's performance year-to-date, it's now on a par to the S&P. So, both indices are up somewhere between 7 and 8 percent year-to-date. So, Europe is starting to stage something of a comeback from the conflict lows. And so, what's driving this? And are we beginning to see inflows into Europe again? Marina Zavolock: So, I'm going to give a two-part answer to this. Firstly, Europe has a lot of the same exposure as the U.S., so that is part of the reason… I know that Europe has this kind of reputation for not having a lot of tech exposure; but we do have tech exposure… Paul Walsh: We do. Marina Zavolock: Not to the same degree as the U.S., but, let me just give you some numbers here. So, we have a number of sectors heavily exposed to the AI CapEx boom. These are led primarily by the semis sector in Europe, tech hardware, cap goods, and metals and mining; specifically, copper has a link to AI as well. And those sectors, let's say roughly they make up at this point about 15 percent weight of our index. And if you look at that year-to-date performance that's on par with the U.S., almost 90 percent of it is made up from these sectors.Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: So, these sectors have moved just as aggressively as many of the AI pockets within the U.S. That's the answer that's kind of similar to the U.S. The answer that's a bit different is that we get from time to time, over the years actually, but we had a very big one earlier this year. We get these waves of interest in Europe because investors start to think about diversification. So… Paul Walsh: That's right. The broadening. Marina Zavolock: Yes. So, they... And we've called for broadening recently on the back of this, Iran-U.S. MOU. But this broadening has other drivers as well. So when we felt this wave of interest in diversification, and we saw the flows coming into Europe earlier this year, the driver was initially because the Mag7 was kind of going choppy and sideways. So, that just drove diversification out of Mag7 and into equal-weighted S&P, but that also always benefits Europe. Or tends to benefit Europe. But also, we had this wave of interest in real assets earlier this year; and Europe has a higher share of real assets than the U.S. Now, at this moment, I am sensing that we are getting that pickup in broadening interest once again from my feedback with investors. You had this MOU, which was the initial trigger. You have oil prices, broadly, they're falling. That's helpful as well. But I think the biggest driver of what's driving this diversification interest at this moment is actually the volatility that we're seeing in the AI complex. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, what a lot of the feedback I'm getting these days from investors that are coming back to Europe after focusing primarily on the U.S. is, ‘Look, I have a lot of AI in my portfolio. I like my AI exposure. I'm not looking to get rid of it or to sell it, but incrementally, I'm a little bit worried about this volatility. And I'm looking to broaden my exposure. What do you like in Europe to help me diversify away from this kind of volatility that we're seeing now?' Paul Walsh: And I think that's a great segue, Marina, to my second question, because with Europe having really kept pace with the S&P year-to-date, the question that really is going to be asked is the sustainability of that relative performance. And when we think about a backdrop here in Europe of pretty low economic growth, the market continues to be worried about rate hikes given recent inflationary dynamics. And as you've articulated there, tech has played a very significant role here in Europe as well in terms of driving markets higher. So, you've alluded to it in a few of your comments already, but how sustainable do we see this as being? Marina Zavolock: It depends on AI, to be honest with you. So, if AI starts to really move up at an aggressive pace like it was earlier this year, then it's hard for Europe to outperform given our exposure. But if that starts to move up at a more moderate pace, Europe has a chance to do very well. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: I think there's a lot of misperceptions when it comes to European equities. And outside of AI, actually there's quite a lot of strength. So, misperception one, you've mentioned it, which is basically: Oh, look at our PMIs, look at our GDP growth. Why bother with European equities? I think this is maybe what some U.S. investors may think. But just like in the U.S., the equities market, and maybe even more so, the equities market in Europe – it is not the economy. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, we just published our global exposure guide over this past weekend, which Morgan Stanley has been running 29 iterations of this guide. Europe's exposure to Europe is pretty much at historical lows over decades. Europe's exposure to Europe as a percent of revenues is now 45 percent of revenues … Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: ... is European exposed. The rest is very global, including the U.S. Um, Europe, uh, Of that 45 percent domestic, a lot of that is banks, some defensive sectors. Only a very small sliver is actually consumer-oriented sectors that would see earnings downgrades on the back of ECB hiking, for example. So, I think people may also be surprised to know that consensus earnings growth for Europe this year is over 16 percent. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: It's really healthy. Paul Walsh: It's pretty healthy. Marina Zavolock: I know the U.S. is over 20, but Europe is over 16 percent. These kinds of ideas of, you know – we have a shortage of energy and therefore our earnings are going to be down – they're misperceptions. Because actually, as long as oil doesn't spike to, I don't know, [$]150. If it stays within a healthy range, call it [$]70 to 90, that's actually a very good environment for Europe because we have a lot of real assets. We have the banks which benefit from higher inflation because they trade on the steepness of the curve. And we have some AI exposure. If you add up those three things, which all benefit from inflation, that's 60 percent of our earnings pie.Paul Walsh: Right. Marina Zavolock: Hence, Europe's actually doing really well. And I'll just mention one other thing. Earlier this year, we broke out of a structural downtrend discount; that range that we were trading in versus the U.S. So, for almost 10 years, Europe's discount was just going wider and wider and wider and wider. And as of January 1st, this year, on a like-for-like basis, so sector neutral excluding Mag7, we broke out of that structural downtrend, and we keep seeing a narrowing. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: So, if you're going to broaden, it actually makes a lot of sense to look at Europe, where we have these discounts, and we have value, and we have growth. Paul Walsh: Yeah. So, the point there being the relative valuation discount of Europe to the U.S. has been actually closing a little bit more recently. Final question from my side. You have obviously recently refreshed your sector model. We have talked about the broadening in our conversation today. What are you advocating to your clients out there in terms of relative sector preferences? Marina Zavolock: Yeah. So, we run a data-driven model. Just briefly, we look at things like earnings revisions breadth – works really well as a leading indicator in Europe; a leading indicator for future earnings as well. Consensus price target revisions breadth, balance sheet measures. We look at a number of different things, AI exposure. And basically, I'll just give you the top sectors in our model now. Semis number one, metals and mining number two, led by copper. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: Banks number three. I think banks, for me, it's a key diversification play. Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: A big differentiator. And trading on 10 times PE with very high distributions, buybacks and dividends, low teens earnings growth upgrades. Front of the line on AI adoption and seeing that ROI coming through. Cap goods, number four, that's also led by AI exposure. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: And then I'll just mention lastly, utilities is an overweight as well. That's also a little bit AI linked, but very, very under-owned; lagging the trends we've seen in the U.S. And broader based in terms of the positives there because we also have this drive for renewables, which is coming back. Paul Walsh: Marina, always, we value your insights highly. Thanks as always for taking the time to talk. Marina Zavolock: Great speaking with you, Paul. Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And please do share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, Scott Becker breaks down the market rebound, AI stock volatility, and the geopolitical and economic forces driving investor sentiment.

Arnout Ter Schure is an environmental scientist turned financial market analyst, he uses a data-driven, weight-of-the-evidence scientific approach to forecast when and where the financial markets top and bottom. Top 3 Value Bombs 1. Consistency beats intensity; long-term success comes from repeating what works, not chasing bursts of effort. 2. Financial markets are probabilistic, not predictable; your goal is to stack the odds in your favor, not be right 100% of the time. 3. Combining multiple tools like Elliott Wave and technical analysis increases your edge by aligning probabilities. Check out the website for insights and analysis - Intelligent Investing Sponsors HighLevel - The ultimate all-in-one platform for entrepreneurs, marketers, coaches, and agencies. Learn more at HighLevelFire.com. 50 Days - Join JLD on his free '50 Days to Something' video series on YouTube and create something special in 50 days.

Why are Micron and Cerebras telling two different AI stories? And why is Oracle one of the worst stocks this week? Plus, who's behind Wendy's big rally? Host Jack Pitcher discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why are Micron and Cerebras telling two different AI stories? And why is Oracle one of the worst stocks this week? Plus, who's behind Wendy's big rally? Host Jack Pitcher discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New to investing in real estate? In an area that has high housing prices, tough landlord laws, or little-to-no cash flow potential? We've got you covered. We're sharing 12 markets that are making money for real estate investors right now. Regardless of your strategy, we have markets for you. From long-term rentals to short-term rentals and Airbnbs, house hacking cities that will help cover your mortgage, and house flipping markets with high returns and low rehab costs. We didn't want to give you just one option to choose from, so Dave, Henry, and Ashley Kehr from the Real Estate Rookie podcast brought along three separate markets for each real estate investing strategy. From overlooked affordable suburbs with solid population growth to tourist towns that are making killer nightly rates during busy season, and even some sneaky top-tier markets that many would assume house hacking wouldn't work (but it does!). We'll walk through why we like each market, their population and job growth, average home prices and rent prices, and the strategy that would make the most sense there. You can invest in real estate in 2026; you've just got to pick the right place! See Dave, Henry, AND Ashley at BPCON2026!  In This Episode We Cover 12 top real estate investing markets in 2026 (most of which you may have never heard of) The cash flow and appreciation “hybrid” market with huge population growth  A beach town with over 18 million yearly visitors and killer short-term rental rates One underrated city where you can be all-in on a house flip for $200K (and make serious profit) The one city where Dave would move if he were starting his real estate investing all over again  We'd invest in this state…even if everyone else tells you not to  And So Much More! Check out more resources from this show on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠BiggerPockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠h⁠⁠t⁠t⁠ps://www⁠.biggerpockets.com/blog/real-estate-1296. Interested in learning more about today's sponsors or becoming a BiggerPockets partner yourself? Email ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠advertise@biggerpockets.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Although markets may recalibrate to a different policy playbook under the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, housing could remain in a holding pattern. Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today, the glow has maybe worn off the championship of the Knicks, so we can talk about the impact of Warsh on the mortgage and housing market. It's Friday, June 26th at 10am in New York. James Egan: If we have to stop talking about the Knicks, we can stop talking about the Knicks. But Jay, I think one of the things, if we take a little bit of a step back in mortgage markets, in housing markets, in fixed income markets more broadly – from the beginning of the year to now, we've gone from the market pricing in 2.5 cuts from the Fed by the end of 2026, to the market pricing in roughly 1.5 hikes. 100 basis point difference in market expectations over the course of the past five and a half months. Now, that's happened at different times, with different levels of velocity and severity. But one of the key talking points we have now is – we have a new Fed chair. We had the first FOMC meeting and his press conference after that last Wednesday. What do you think that means for mortgage markets, for volatility? How are you thinking about this? Jay Bacow: look, Jim, it's a great question, and we've got asked that by a number of different investors. Chair Warsh has been pretty clear that he thinks people should do more of what they're good at and less of what they're not good at. And so, he's felt like the Fed should keep their communication on future guidance relatively short. And so, with less forward guidance from the Fed, the market has more uncertainty, and more uncertainty translates into more volatility. And more volatility is generally bad for the mortgage market, given that investors are short the option to the homeowner to refinance. Furthermore, shifting from expectations of the Fed cutting to expectations of the Fed hiking generally makes it a little bit less favorable environment for investors like banks and overseas investors to come to the mortgage market. James Egan: Alright. Now, we've been on this podcast several times this year where we've talked about, you mentioned banks... We've talked about deregulation. We've talked about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the GSEs – them buying mortgages, that being constructive for our mortgage view.Is that still the case, or how are you layering that into your thought process? Jay Bacow: now? That's definitely still the case. Those things haven't changed. The deregulation is still flowing through the markets. That longer term should be supportive of bank demand in aggregate, although obviously there are a number of different regulations going through. The GSEs are still forecasted to buy 200 billion mortgages on behalf of President Trump's initiative. So, that's why we're just sort of tactically negative – those technicals are very strong in an environment where there really has not been much supply. Now, some of that supply is because mortgage rates are still in the context of 6.5 percent. Some of that is because with mortgage rates at 6.5 percent, there hasn't been that much housing activity. So, Jim, turning it to you, what is the outlook for the housing market in a world where they are expecting the Fed to hike and rates to stay elevated? James Egan: Right. So, the main thing that we focus on from a housing market perspective is less specifically Fed action and more the 5- and 10-year part of the curve.So, when you start to say something like you're tactically negative mortgage-backed securities here – how can I interpret that from a mortgage rate perspective? Jay Bacow: If we're tactically negative, it's more of a small move than some massive move. And as you said, and we've talked about on this call beforehand, realistically, the mortgage rate is a little bit less dependent on the Fed policy rate and more around the belly of the Treasury curve. And, you know, what's going to happen with the belly of the Treasury curve is going to be dependent on sort of market expectations along with what's happening in the geopolitical situation. So realistically, if you've written down that the mortgage rate is 6.5 percent right now, our view probably doesn't change things too much. James Egan: And if that's the case, then affordability in the housing market, as we've been talking about, is going to continue to be challenged. And what we think that means from a housing activity perspective is any upside that we really thought would have been there gets pretty significantly capped. But the same side of this token – or the other side of this token, if you will, we do think that the current level is well-supported here. There's some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where affordability is, and we think we found that. We're at 40-year lows from a turnover perspective. From the fourth quarter of 2023 through now, we've been roughly at the same level. That's 11 consecutive quarters now. We think this is the kind of base level for people that need to transact regardless of where mortgage rates are. So, the more that the rate environment remains challenged, the more that we kind of hang in this low to mid 6 percent mortgage rate environment. We just think that that continues to curtail upside. So, it's a housing market and a housing activity space that continues to very much just remain stuck in neutral. Jay Bacow: Alright. So, if we're in this new environment and the Fed might be hiking, it's not great locally for mortgage valuations. Housing market more broadly, probably kind of stuck in neutral here. Jim, always a pleasure speaking with you. James Egan: And always great speaking to you too, Jay. And to all of our regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today. Jay Bacow: And go smash that subscribe button.

>>> First, grab the guide I told you about in this episode: How to become a millionaire even on an average salary A few years ago we sold off some Tesla stock to pay off our second house. If you run the math on what that stock would be worth now, the result is honestly brutal. But I felt the Lord tell me clearly to do it. And looking back, I think I see exactly why He said what He said. In this episode Linda and I walk through five biblical investing secrets most Christians have completely missed: the verse Solomon wrote down 3,000 years before a man named Harry Markowitz won a Nobel Prize for the same idea, why God rebuked a servant in Matthew 25 for playing it too safe, the Bible verse that describes Warren Buffett's entire patient-compounding strategy, the move every wealth advisor still preaches that came straight from Joseph in Genesis 41, and the generational vision in Proverbs that reframes a lot of what most Americans get wrong about money and family. If you enjoyed this, we'd love to send you a free copy of our book — you just cover shipping. It has over 1,000 5-star reviews on Amazon. Grab it at seedtime.com/free.   WHAT WE COVER IN THIS EPISODE Here's a little of what we cover in this episode: Why God rebuked a servant in the Bible for NOT investing (and most Christians have missed it) The investing principle Solomon wrote down 3,000 years before Wall Street figured it out Why "boring" is the actual investing strategy (and the lottery winner stat that proves it) The Bible verse that describes Warren Buffett's entire investing strategy The Joseph blueprint that every wealth advisor still preaches today The "vitamin K on day 8" principle that shows how specific God's instructions really are The Tesla stock decision Bob can't undo (and why he is at peace with it anyway) Why generational wealth without character is dangerous (and how to do it the other way)   BIBLE VERSES MENTIONED Matthew 25 (Parable of the Talents) Luke 19:23 Ecclesiastes 11:2 Proverbs 13:11 Genesis 41 (Joseph and the seven years) Proverbs 13:22   RESOURCES MENTIONED 10x Investing (use code PODCAST for a discount) Grab the guide I told you about in this episode: (How to become a millionaire even on an average salary)   DISCLAIMER Obligatory legal disclaimer: I'm a financial educator, not your financial advisor, investment advisor, tax pro, or lawyer. This channel is for general education, not personalized advice, and nothing here should be taken as a recommendation to buy, sell, or use any specific investment, account, or financial product. I'm just sharing what I'm doing, what I'm learning, and what I find interesting. Markets can be humbling. Investing involves risk, including the risk of losing money, and my results are personal, may not be typical, and are not guaranteed. Do your own research, use wisdom, and talk with a qualified professional before making financial decisions. Some links are to our resources and some are affiliate links, which means we may earn a commission at no extra cost to you. That helps keep the lights on around here, so thanks for the support.

As US equities get more volatile, are the drivers of the rally still intact? John Flood, head of Americas Equities Execution Services in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets, breaks down the market action, and explains why strong earnings and positive technicals could drive stocks higher, in this conversation with Chris Hussey.   Recorded on June 25, 2026.  The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at ⁠http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html⁠ Goldman Sachs does not endorse any candidate or any political party. Copyright 2026. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Lyn Alden. They discuss the Hormuz crisis, Fed policy under new leadership, budget deficits, the AI trade, and AI's mounting demands on energy markets. https://bit.ly/4oJoM7q    

Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore joins our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas to consider the consumer outlook and how it may impact the November midterm elections. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Michael Zezas: And I'm Mike Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research. Ariana Salvatore: Today, we'll be discussing the consumer outlook, policy catalysts, and what it could mean for the 2026 midterm elections. It's Thursday, June 25th at 9am in New York. Mike, you're on the road, obviously not in New York City this week. Why don't you tell us a little bit about the conference that you're at, and then we can get into some of the topics that have come up in your conversations. Michael Zezas: Yeah. I'm down in South Carolina at Morgan Stanley's Captains of the Consumer Industry Conference, where we put together investors and leadership of key consumer companies in the U.S. to learn about each other in a more informal way, brainstorm… And it's been really interesting. We've had a lot of meetings with leadership from different prominent consumer companies throughout the U.S. And it's been really fascinating to hear how the consumer's been quite resilient. But in general, one pattern that sticks out is rising concern about lower-income consumers' behavior starting to lag in meaningful way higher-income consumers' behavior. You're starting to see substitution and sort of more selectivity amongst lower-income households, a pattern that began a bit last year as a lot of these companies would report with higher tariffs. That seems to have continued with higher gas prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. So, there's a lot of discussion and concern about how durable it is. And in particular, if there are some policy choices here that might alleviate some of that pressure and bring some fundamental strength to what is a challenged segment of the consumer market right now. Ariana Salvatore: Let's talk a little bit more about tariffs. It's our economists' view that we've mostly gotten through the tariff pass-through. Is that the sentiment that you're hearing from corporates and the clients that you're talking to? Michael Zezas: It is. Well, it's certainly the hope. And I guess the follow-up questions here are: once some of the temporary tariff authority that was put into place after the Supreme Court struck down the use of IEEPA, will there be a restoration of those tariff levels? And will the USMCA negotiations create higher tariffs? So, Ariana, what's your thoughts there? Is there any concern for companies that they're going to start needing to deal with a re-escalation of tariff costs relative to what we experienced, say, last year? Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, I think to answer that question, we need to dig into this under the surface a little bit and understand what types of tariffs that we're talking about. So, to your question on the USMCA, we see that largely as a story of continuity, right? So, the USMCA exemption has been in place since the deal was signed, right? And since Trumpimposed those Section 301 tariffs, we think that's likely to stay the case. That means the vast majority of the goods trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is right now not subject to the 301 tariffs. Now, on the other hand, we have existing Section 232 tariffs in place on not just sectors like steel and aluminum, but a bunch of other goods, too, and we're supposed to get more of those investigations wrapped up in the next week or so. So, on that front, I do think there could be some potential room for escalation, but more broadly speaking, we think the direction of travel is relatively stable, if not slightly lower, because, as you mentioned, the IEEPA tariffs that were replaced by the Section 122s have to get replaced again end of July, right? So that Section 122 authority was a temporary authority. The president is going to have to replace that with a mix of Section 232 and 301. It's been our view that when that happens, there could be some alleviation for very specific pockets of goods that fall into really neither bucket, right? So,they're not necessarily critical for national security, and they're coming from countries that are difficult to maintain a Section 301 investigation on. So, it's actually very nuanced under the surface. I would say in the aggregate level, what we think is that you're going to see the tariff rate stay somewhere around 8 to 9 percent on a headline basis; if not directionally, maybe a little bit lower throughout the course of this year. Michael Zezas: Got it. And I think that message has been music to the ears of a lot of these companies. And I've been doing these meetings with our chief economist, Michael Gapen, who has said that that's contributing to what he forecasts as being a meaningfuldeceleration in inflation into the end of the year. Certainly an inflation level lower than what the aggregate Fed forecast isat the moment. Another question that comes up is whether or not the recent decrease in oil prices, which should feed through into lower gasoline prices, is durable. If that's something that could be counted on, because obviously these companies are thinking about it being a potential tailwind to demand going into the second half of the year. How do you think about that, Ariana? Ariana Salvatore: The MOU that the U.S. and Iran signed, I would say was a welcome development for markets. But that being said, there are a number of paths to re-escalation, in our view. Really four things to keep an eye on, kind of outstanding questions or uncertainties. The first is on execution risk of the MOU itself. It's very light on details. We need to see more about how exactly the Strait of Hormuz is going to reopen, if there's going to be a servicing fee, a tolling regime, et cetera. That was a red line of the United States. But again, implementation there is a big question. The second is on the calibration or divergence between the U.S. and Israel in terms of their objectives. We identified that early in the conflict as a potential indicator of how long this could possibly last, and I think it's equally as important in assessing how long the ceasefire or the MOU could stay in place. The third thing I would say we need to learn more about is the role of Congress in all of this. So, some Republican lawmakers actually pushed back against the MOU, saying it didn't go far enough to advance U.S. interests. Now Congress has a more limited role when it comes to the actual MOU implementation itself. Remember, the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, didn't go through Congress either. But Congress can exert some more power come the fall when we start talking about defense appropriations, right? The Pentagon is asking for $1.5 trillion. [$]300 billion of that is supplemental war funding. And so, I think if you see Republicans push back, that's going to be an easy forum for them to do so. And the last point is on the negotiations themselves. So, the MOU is a 60-day ceasefire throughout which both parties are supposed to be discussing the nuclear question. Now, looking back at historical context here, the JCPOA took about 20 months to negotiate start to finish. This is a very compressed timeframe, and again, obviously potential risk for escalationas we see these negotiations go on the next few months. So, Mike, I would say, like I said before, markets are definitely seeing this as a welcome development, but that doesn't mean it's without execution risk. Across the board, our outlook actually expected a normalization of flows by the end of June, so we're kind of pulling things up by about two weeks. That means that the outlook basically remains intact, but with marginal upside as this is a slightly more constructive outlook. Michael Zezas: Got it. So net net, there's still plenty of execution risk going on, but the trend is at least towards easing of some of these policy pressures that have been impacting the consumer. And it's also been interesting that a lot of the conversations have led to questions about artificial intelligence. Now, at this conference last year, a lot of the discussion about artificial intelligence was around how these companies were implementing it to create new marketing opportunities, create efficiencies inside of their operations. This year, a lot of the discussion is actually about the macro trend around artificial intelligence, the acknowledgment of the industrial build-out around this new technology and how that is buoying investment and employment – and therefore consumption. And so, the policy concern or consideration from some of these companies is whether or not there are upcoming electoral issues, either in the midterms or in the next election cycle, that might change the dynamic around the AI industrial build-out. Are there signs that would show that a tougher regulatory regime? Data center construction bans that these things might take on a bipartisan flavor? And so right now, I think that's a very difficult question to answer. There is obviously some level of concern about if policy might change this dynamic around the AI industrial build-out that really has kind of helped the economy deal with some other external shocks from policy, namely what's going on in the Middle East and trade policy changes before that Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, to that point, this question around AI pushback, especially on data center build-out, has been a big theme in the elections. Thus far, it's really been dealt with on more of a state and local level. But our view is that it's been kind of bubbling up to the national level. Efforts there are nascent, but I don't think they're going away anytime soon. So obviously something that we're going to watch heading into November because it matters a lot for corporates and for investors alike. Mike, maybe we'll leave it there. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Michael Zezas: And thanks for taking the time to talk to me. Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Does Ethereum have a funding crisis? On today's Markets Outlook, Protocol Guild Organizer Trent Van Epps tells CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie why the Ethereum Foundation's subtraction philosophy is creating a critical funding gap for core developers, what it will take to fill it, and why he's still optimistic about ETH's future. - Timecodes: 00:00 - Trent Van Epps Joins Markets Outlook 00:57 - Why Trent Left the Ethereum Foundation 01:55 - What Is Subtraction and Why It Matters 02:31 - 20% Workforce Cuts and the Funding Gap Explained 05:09 - Options for Solving the Funding Crisis 07:06 - Will Ethereum Lose Its First Mover Advantage? 08:40 - What Happens If the Funding Doesn't Come? 10:47 - What Institutions Should Replace the EF? 12:24 - Ethereum's Future 14:37 - ETH the Asset: The Misconceptions and the Opportunity - Check out CoinDesk's latest episode of Public Keys from the NYSE: https://youtu.be/mePmjknvBVc - To get market moving news delivered daily, download CoinDesk's mobile app: https://linktr.ee/coindeskapp. - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Find James Lavish's SubStack Here: https://www.jameslavish.com/ Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout the WAWD Substack here: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/ In this episode of On the Tape, Danny Moses welcomes James Lavish back to the show for a wide-ranging conversation that goes well beyond Bitcoin. Drawing on his background trading risk arbitrage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and running the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, James breaks down why he believes the Fed and Treasury are "trapped" by a looming wall of debt—roughly $14 trillion rolling over in the next year on top of ongoing $2 trillion deficits—and what that means for rates, inflation, and the dollar. Danny and James dig into Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair and his more hawkish-but-mostly-bark tone, the odds of a July rate hike, and how the war and energy prices are feeding back into inflation. They explore the "hot ball of money" chasing AI and the SpaceX IPO, the K-shaped economy driving retail toward speculative bets, and why James sees a coming rotation of capital out of high-flying AI names and back into Bitcoin. The two also debate Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) at length—whether its leverage and perpetual preferred structure leave Saylor in a "trap" or a position of strength—with James arguing the balance sheet concerns are overblown if you believe in Bitcoin long term. James shares how his fund approaches Bitcoin-adjacent energy and AI investments, and Danny closes with his Kalshi picks of the week. --ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

When a who's who of progressive economists, some Nobel laureates, all academics, take to the pages of the, ummm, Guardian, to say that “growth is doomed” and that “poverty is manufactured,” is it time for policymakers to reverse course and embrace the policy solutions these “experts” present to “change the rules of the global economy”? Or, rather, is this the ideal time for lovers of freedom who believe in human flourishing to double down on the only things the world has ever seen that manufacture prosperity? Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Crypto News: Senator Lummis says the Clarity Act will move in the Senate in July. Bitcoin dumps below $60,000 and $12.6 trillion Charles Schwab officially rolls out Bitcoin trading.Brought to you by

It's easy to assume generosity will grow over time. We tell ourselves we'll give more after we earn more, save more, pay off debt, or reach a certain level of financial security. But what if waiting causes us to miss something God wants to do today? That's the question Cody Hobelmann invites us to consider. Cody is a Certified Financial Planner, a Certified Kingdom Advisor® (CKA®), and co-founder of the Finish Line Pledge with his brother, Keelan. He also contributed to FaithFi's new field guide, How Much Money Is Enough?—a resource designed to help believers think biblically about setting financial finish lines. For Cody, this isn't merely a financial planning concept. It's personal. Early in his stewardship journey, he believed the best way to serve the Kingdom was to accumulate substantial wealth and give generously later. But over time, God began to reshape that perspective. “I started to wonder,” Cody shared, “what am I missing by not giving more today?” That question gets to the heart of biblical generosity. Giving is not only about transferring money to a worthy cause. It is also about joy, spiritual formation, trust, and eternal impact. The Joy of Giving Now Acts 20:35 says, “It is more blessed to give than to receive.” For some believers, generosity begins with the heart. They discover that giving produces a joy that spending and saving cannot replicate. When we give, we step into something larger than ourselves. We participate in the needs, stories, and mission of others. That joy can become contagious. As Cody explained, generosity often draws us into relationships with people and organizations doing meaningful work. We begin to see the impact of our gifts. We share in the purpose of the ministry. We become part of a story God is writing through His people. And the more we experience that joy, the harder it becomes to put generosity off until later. Giving now also allows us to encourage others. Stories of generosity can awaken generosity in someone else. Cody noted that hearing the stories of radically generous givers helped challenge his own assumptions. In the same way, our generosity can become an invitation for others to ask, “What are they experiencing that I'm missing?” Generosity doesn't just meet needs. It multiplies. Generosity as Spiritual Formation Other givers are motivated by what Cody describes as the “soul” dimension of giving. For them, generosity is part of spiritual formation. Giving requires trust. It asks us to surrender something we may feel we have earned, controlled, or secured for ourselves. That first step can be the hardest, because it often exposes what we really believe about God's provision. But like a muscle, generosity grows stronger with practice. At first, giving may feel difficult or like a sacrifice. But as we give consistently, we learn to listen for the Lord's leading and respond with obedience. Over time, generosity becomes less about fearfully letting go and more about joyfully participating in God's work. This is one reason giving now matters. Delayed generosity may preserve our resources, but it can also delay the work God wants to do in our hearts. Through generosity, God loosens our grip on money. He shifts our identity away from what we have, what we earn, or what we can control, and roots it more deeply in Him. Accumulation may give the illusion of safety, but generosity teaches us dependence. Giving becomes a way of saying, “Lord, these resources belong to You. What would You have me do with them?” That kind of prayerful surrender draws us closer to God in a way accumulation never can. The Wisdom of Strategic Giving Generosity is not only emotional or formative. It can also be strategic. Some believers think carefully about impact. They want to steward resources wisely, evaluate outcomes, and give in ways that bear fruit. Cody calls this the “head” dimension of giving. From that perspective, giving now has a practical advantage: it gives us experience. When we give today, we can see what happens. We can learn which ministries are bearing fruit, which need to align with our calling, and where future gifts might have the greatest impact. Cody compares it to planting seeds. Year after year, we learn where the harvest is growing and where to sow next. This kind of giving is not impulsive. It is thoughtful, prayerful, and engaged. Financial planners often talk about the power of compound interest. But Cody points to something even greater: compound impact. A dollar invested may grow over time, but a gift given today may change a life today. And God can do far more with our obedience than we can calculate on a spreadsheet. That doesn't mean every dollar should be given away immediately or that planning for the future is unwise. Scripture commends wisdom, provision, and prudent planning. But it does mean we should be careful not to assume that “later” is always the more faithful option. Sometimes waiting to give can mean delaying the impact God intended for today. Don't Hold Too Tightly Jesus warns in Matthew 6:19-21, “Do not lay up for yourselves treasures on earth, where moth and rust destroy and where thieves break in and steal... For where your treasure is, there your heart will be also.” Earthly resources are temporary. Markets change. Circumstances change. Needs arise. Life is uncertain. Even when we intend to give later, we are not guaranteed we will have the opportunity. That reality is not meant to create fear. It is meant to cultivate a sense of faithful urgency. As Ron Blue has often said, “Do your giving while you're living, so you're knowing where it's going.” There is wisdom in being able to see, participate in, and learn from the impact of generosity while we are still here. Giving now turns temporary resources into lasting Kingdom impact. How Finish Lines Help Us Give Freely One practical way to accelerate generosity is by setting financial finish lines. A lifestyle finish line changes the question from “How much should I give?” to “How much should I keep?” Once we prayerfully define enough for our lifestyle, we are free to ask what God would have us do with the resources beyond that point. A lifetime finish line works similarly. It helps us consider how much is appropriate to accumulate over the course of our lives. When we know what is enough, we can begin dreaming with God about how to deploy His resources for His purposes. Finish lines are not about legalism. They are about freedom. They help us resist the endless pull of accumulation and open our hands to the joy, adventure, and impact of generosity. Take One Step This Week For the person waiting for the “right time” to become more generous, the encouragement is simple: start now. That step does not have to be dramatic. It may be small. It may be quiet. It may be a first act of obedience that stretches your faith just enough to remind you that God can be trusted. But don't wait to be generous. Giving shapes your heart. It deepens your faith. It strengthens your trust in God. And it multiplies Kingdom impact in ways delayed generosity never can. The question is not merely, “How much can I give someday?” The better question may be, “Lord, what would You have me do today?” On Today's Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions: Scripture calls men to provide for their families, but what does that look like today? Is there a minimum income a man should aim for to support a family, and what kind of financial goal or ambition should we encourage young men to pursue? I'm praying about how to advise a friend with over $40,000 in debt. He has small investments and a small business, but the business is declining, and he feels overwhelmed. Would a Christian credit counselor be the right next step? Resources Mentioned: Faithful Steward: FaithFi's Quarterly Magazine (Become a FaithFi Partner) 10 Reasons to Give Now Rather Than Later by Cody Hobelmann (Article in Faithful Steward, Issue 6) The Finish Line Pledge Christian Credit Counselors Our Ultimate Treasure: A 21-Day Journey to Faithful Stewardship by Rob West Wisdom Over Wealth: 12 Lessons from Ecclesiastes on Money Look At The Sparrows: A 21-Day Devotional on Financial Fear and Anxiety Rich Toward God: A Study on the Parable of the Rich Fool Find a Certified Kingdom Advisor® (CKA) FaithFi App Remember, you can call in to ask your questions every weekday at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. You can also visit FaithFi.com to connect with our online community and partner with us as we help more people live as faithful stewards of God's resources. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Does Ethereum have a funding crisis? On today's Markets Outlook, Protocol Guild Organizer Trent Van Epps tells CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie why the Ethereum Foundation's subtraction philosophy is creating a critical funding gap for core developers, what it will take to fill it, and why he's still optimistic about ETH's future. - Timecodes: 00:00 - Trent Van Epps Joins Markets Outlook 00:57 - Why Trent Left the Ethereum Foundation 01:55 - What Is Subtraction and Why It Matters 02:31 - 20% Workforce Cuts and the Funding Gap Explained 05:09 - Options for Solving the Funding Crisis 07:06 - Will Ethereum Lose Its First Mover Advantage? 08:40 - What Happens If the Funding Doesn't Come? 10:47 - What Institutions Should Replace the EF? 12:24 - Ethereum's Future 14:37 - ETH the Asset: The Misconceptions and the Opportunity - Check out CoinDesk's latest episode of Public Keys from the NYSE: https://youtu.be/mePmjknvBVc - To get market moving news delivered daily, download CoinDesk's mobile app: https://linktr.ee/coindeskapp. - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

US equity futures are firmer, Asian markets are mixed, and European equities are also trading higher. Markets are being driven by renewed optimism around the AI and memory cycle following strong guidance from Micron and upgraded outlooks from Qualcomm. At the same time, weaker oil prices are easing pressure on rates and contributing to expectations of a slower pace of central bank tightening, although policymakers continue to signal a cautious stance with risks around inflation still present.Companies Mentioned: Meta, MetLife, EasyJet

While Elsevier's most recent Clinician of the Future Report shows increasing adoption of artificial intelligence tools among physicians and nurses, and optimism that they will improve quality of care in the future, a majority raised concerns about trust and reliability. To increase the level of trust, 60% said transparent citations of evidence-based and peer-reviewed research will be key. How to provide that transparency is our focus today as Raise the Line host Lindsey Smith welcomes Elsevier colleagues Rhett Alden and Raman Kaur to guide us through the complexities involved, including the concept of traceability and what role it plays in how AI tools such as Elsevier's ClinicalKey AI are built and deployed.  “Traceability changes the confidence that a clinician has in an AI tool so that they aren't trusting the AI, they're trusting the underlying evidence they're consuming from the AI-assisted platform,” says Raman, who brings years of experience as a primary care practitioner to her work.  It's also important, Rhett adds, to provide additional information, pulled from both the clinician's query and the patient's medical record, to inform clinical thinking. “ClinicalKey AI can be more than a response engine by establishing a larger context to provide a more precise answer for that individual patient.” In this thought-provoking discussion, these experts also provide insights on: Mitigating bias in AI results; Using AI responsibly with sustainability in mind; What type of clinician will benefit most from AI Mentioned in this episode: ClinicalKey AI Clinician of the Future Report If you like this podcast, please share it on your social channels. You can also subscribe to the series and check out all of our episodes at www.osmosis.org/podcast

Prediction markets aren't new. Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded away.There was an entire political era when party bosses were expected to conspicuously gamble on their candidates (even if they secretly hedged).And in the 1980s, a few economists designed an election market that beat out election polling 74 percent of the time.Today, we're running an excerpt from our friends at Throughline, NPR's excellent history podcast. Subscribe right now if you don't already. And, listen to their extended version of the episode to hear about the early markets for betting on terrorism and military uses of prediction markets.Support:NPR+Read: Our book: Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life Our weekly longform Planet Money newsletterOur weekly Indicator round-up newsletterFollow: InstagramTikTokYouTubeFacebookToday's episode was produced for Planet Money by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler, edited by Alex Goldmark, and engineered by Maggie Luthar. The original Throughline episode was produced by Rund Abdelfatah, Casey Miner, Cristina Kim, Devin Katayama, Sarah Wyman, Julia Redpath, and Kyana Moghadam. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility. It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London. Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened. We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility. I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction. First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lower estimates are ultimately correct. Supporting our case, at least in our view, is that energy prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks since some of these Fed forecasts were set, as markets have moved to believe not only would existing oil production resume in the Persian Gulf, but Iran could increase exports materially under its new agreement with the United States. That would greatly reduce a source of underlying inflationary pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. With inflation set to come in lower than feared, we think the Fed's most natural option will be to remain on hold this year rather than raise rates. But if the Fed's not doing anything, how exactly is that going to drive volatility? Our answer to that question lies in another thing that it's not going to be doing – providing as much information about where it thinks monetary policy is going next. Indeed, since the financial crisis, the Fed often went out of its way to give so-called forward guidance and significant detail about when and how they may change policy in the future. Proponents saw this as a way to avoid surprises and smooth the transmission of this policy, but critics saw it as limiting and potentially giving markets a false sense of certainty. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is one of these critics and has promised to give a lot less forward guidance. That lack of handholding by the Fed about what they might do next is a big change. Coupled with the potential for a smaller Fed balance sheet and big questions around the path of inflation and the impact of AI and productivity, every data point now has more potential to shift the market's thinking. My strategy colleagues think that this will lead to higher volatility in two-year interest rates, as well as more volatility in currencies. I'd also note that here in the UK, this paradox is not nearly as puzzling. Here, the Bank of England's target rate has been the same level since mid-December. But that hasn't stopped the UK two-year bond yield from trading in an over 100 basis point range. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

This past week delivered a rare natural experiment — major Fed communications and a historic Middle East ceasefire happened simultaneously, giving investors a live stress test of what truly moves markets. Dissecting which force had more power over stock prices, bond yields, and the dollar can sharpen every investor's macro framework going forward.Today's Stocks & Topics: Roblox Corporation (RBLX), Market Wrap, Option Markets, Fedspeak vs. Geopolitics: Which Force Actually Drives Markets More?, Toast, Inc. (TOST), The Japanese Yen, Owning Silver & Gold, Perpetual Futures.Our Next Wealth Webinar: “Beyond the Yield: How to Invest for Your Income Needs” June 30th, 2026 - 12:00 pmTo sign up: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/5717793889555/WN_XuoDgMVwSv6wZXXurrZTLgOur Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic and use my code Claude.ai/invest for a great deal: https://www.anthropic.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/INVEST for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Plaud AI and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/invest for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TaskRabbit and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://taskrabbit.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Announcing the CTP for SpaceX. MahJong Craze gone wild. Goodbye to Alan Greenspan – The Maestro. Have you seen RAM prices? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Announcing the CTP for SpaceX - MahJong Craze - Goodbye to Alan Greenspan - The Maestro - Have you seen RAM prices? Markets - Economic Collapse Imminent? - Breathe is narrowing again - chips chips chips are the only play - Spacex coming back down to earth? What is that sucking sound? -- Markets getting weird..... 3% down for NASDAQ 100 today - 8% for SMH and 14% for Memory ETF - Just announced - Alphabet (Google) will replace Verizon in DJIA DEDICATION: Alan Greenspan - Died Monday at age 100 Google Enters DJIA - High priced shares - Moves tech to 22% of DJIA from 17% or so - very meaningful move - Every $1 move for Google = $7 move on DJIA - Tech:  S&P 500 (~30%+), Nasdaq (~50%+) Computer Pricing - What as $2,000 a year ago for a nice desktop is not like $4,000 - Dell not holding pricing quotes - and even if they do, back ordered so prices could go up after order - Will IPOs put more money in the pocket of tech companies to buy gear at any price? Endless - SpaceX recently finalized two massive, multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence contracts: a $6.3 billion computing power agreement with Reflection AI and a $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor. - AI Compute Deal with Reflection AI - - - - The Terms: Reflection AI agreed to pay SpaceXAI $150 million per month from July 2026 through the end of 2029. - - -- - - The Infrastructure: The startup will tap into hardware and GB300 chips housed at SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center in Memphis, Tennessee. More SpaceX - SpaceX shares were as high as $220 post IPO. - Sharea ahve been down over the past 3 days. - Most that got in POST IPO probably bought in at about $162-$165 - Newsline: SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, after the company said it is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time. - The stock fell 16% Monday to close at $154.60, the lowest level since the company's first day of trading, pushing its three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600 billion in value over that period. - SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion from the first bond offering to fund its artificial-intelligence ambitions. Missed Opportunity - Short the Mattress companies he said...... ----- Got squeezed out....Never to return Swing and a Miss Maybe Because this can happen... - Shares of Getty Images Holdings Inc. soared as much as 145% on Monday after it announced a licensing deal with OpenAI. - Getty said that images from its library will appear in the search and discovery features of ChatGPT, marking a key reversal for the firm. - The partnership with OpenAI could improve “licensing optics” and shift the narrative on the stock, according to analyst Mark Zgutowicz. - Getty shares were up 118% to $1.32 as of 12:44 p.m. in New York, putting them on track for the best session since July 2022. The stock had fallen about 55% this year to close at 61 cents on Thursday before the Juneteenth holiday weekend began. KOREA - SK Hynix - New #1 in South Korea: SK Hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics on Monday to become the country's most valuable listed company. - Remarkable turnaround: A striking reversal for a chipmaker that nearly collapsed under heavy debt roughly two decades ago. (CYCLES) - AI memory leader: Now the dominant supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips powering AI systems. - Marquee customers: Key buyers include Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL). - Massive 2026 rally: Shares are up more than 340% year-to-date, fueled by the global AI boom. - Market cap milestone: Valuation now exceeds both Samsung and Micron (MU). Markets Get Chopped - Questions being asked about if AI spend boom producing fast enough return - Back to earth on valuation scare - (all of a sudden?) - KOSPI down 11% - Chips getting hit - 12% for Memory ETF - MU down 9%, Intel 4%, ASML 7% RAM Prices... - Looking at some additional RAM today for some office computers .... --- ARE THEY KIDDING? RAM Prices Imminent Collapse???? - President Donald Trump said the prospect of global economic collapse was a big reason he signed an interim peace deal with Iran. - According to sources, the deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and set in motion waivers for sanctions on Iran's oil sales to the international market, with the effect being an immediate drop in oil prices and a rise in US stocks. - The agreement has been seen as skewed in Iran's favor, giving the country broad gains before the next round of talks, and has prompted pushback and anger from Republican lawmakers. - MOU signed lat Wednesday - also now more waivers of sanctions on sale of Iranian oil - 60 day reprieve. China - Weak economic conditions - H Shares about to enter bear market - Hong Kong - Close to a technical bear market, dragged down by weak domestic consumption, a struggling property sector, and an exodus of funds fleeing "old tech" for AI plays elsewhere in Asia. - A-shares are listed in mainland China (Shanghai/Shenzhen) and primarily target domestic investors. H-shares are listed in Hong Kong and are freely available to international investors More China - Retail sales declined for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% from a year earlier. - China's urban fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% as of end-May, dragged by real estate and manufacturing. - Manufacturing fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time since December 2020. - Industrial output was the lone bright spot, rebounding from April's near three-year low. - The national unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in May, compared with 5.2% in April. Marrrr Jonggg - Mahjong can be highly addictive due to its rewarding blend of strategy, luck, and social interaction. The rapid tile-drawing, need for pattern recognition, and "just one more round" mentality trigger dopamine releases. If compulsive play disrupts your finances or daily life, it can become a behavioral addiction requiring intervention. - Tactile and Auditory Appeal: Many users on community forums like Reddit agree that the physical weight, texture, and distinct clinking sound of shuffling tiles provide soothing, sensory satisfaction. - There has been a 70% surge in mahjong content on TikTok in the past year - Yelp recently named the Chinese tile game a top trend of 2026, noting that searches for mahjong clubs surged 4,467% year over year for the period from September 2024 to August 2025 and that searches for mahjong lessons rose 819%. Alphabet - WHAT>????*&*^ - Alphabet shares slid 7%, on track for the search giant's worst day in a year. - Alphabet's Google has seen consecutive high-profile researchers leave in the last several days. - The company also has exposure to the market's concerns around commoditized AI and ballooning capital expenditures. - The share slide also came on the heels of a Sunday Wall Street Journal interview with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who called for less dependence on “AI Giants” and said the AI market was commoditized. Back to Oracle - Oracle reduced workforce by 21,000 employees over past twelve months. - Cuts broader than previously disclosed, driven by artificial intelligence adoption. - Global headcount fell from 162,000 to 141,000 full-time employees year-over-year. - Workforce reductions generated $1.8 billion in restructuring costs, company reported. - Company warned AI deployment may continue resulting in workforce reductions. NVDA - Underperforming - Nvidia shares slipping recently despite remaining up about 12% in 2026. - Stock down roughly 3% past month, underperforming semiconductor peers. - SMH ETF surged 84% year-to-date, gaining 15% last month. - Traders predict Nvidia chip pricing power is beginning to decline. - Wall Street focus shifting toward memory and infrastructure AI buildout. - Micron and Sandisk shares jumped nearly 60% over past month. Gloom and Doom - JCD sent interesting take from Chris Bloomstran - Traditionally asset light companies with all sorts of revenue, high margins now.... ---- Converting into asset heavy with no real understanding of what the profitability or even revue will be in the future ----- Here are the highlights of his commentary we can explre: ------------AI buildout shifting markets from asset-light toward capital-intensive infrastructure cycle - Hyperscaler capex surge reflects move into heavy, long-duration asset base - Massive capital requirements challenge economics versus prior asset-light models - Depreciation burden rising sharply as infrastructure scales across AI ecosystem - Returns depend on utilization of expensive, long-lived physical compute assets - Asset-heavy cycles historically lead to overbuild, weak returns, eventual consolidation - Infrastructure spending absorbing nearly all operating cash flow for hyperscalers - Off-balance-sheet financing masking true scale of capital intensity shift - AI economics hinge more on physical capacity than software-driven scalability - Echoes of past asset-heavy booms with eventual oversupply and value destruction Amazon Day - Today - June 26th - US consumers will spend $26.3 billion online at Amazon and other retailers during the four-day sale, up 9% from last year's event in July, according to Adobe Inc. - About 201 million Amazon shoppers in the US were Prime subscribers as of March, up about 3% from a year earlier - Amazon will capture about 60% of all US online spending during Prime Day, its highest market share since 2019, according to estimates from EMarketer Inc. Chevron and Microsoft - Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power. - Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility. - Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts. - Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes. - Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later. - Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations. More Oil News - Drill baby Drill - Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration. - Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases. - Bonds ensure cleanup costs don't fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned. - Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development. - Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication. FedEx Earnings - FedEx posted strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday in the company's last quarter that included the freight business before its spin off. - FedEx Freight spun off into a separate publicly traded company on June 1. - The company said it saw a 3% year-over-year increase in domestic volume. - Stock down 6% A/H   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); ANNOUNCING the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Jun 23, 2026 – Global fintech expert Rich Turrin discusses the US government's ban on Anthropic's advanced AI models and its broader geopolitical impact. He explains how these restrictions disrupt global access, push international businesses...

Crypto News: Congress schedules a hearing for the Clarity Act on July 17. Trump Administration is working to get bipartisan support for passing the Clarity Act before August recess. Chainlink teams up with 47 South Korean, European banks to speed up international money transfers.Brought to you by

Santhosh Srinivasan, VP of Treasury at Nium, joined us to discuss the firm's partnership with Coinbase to enable USDC payments for banks, fintechs, and enterprises worldwide.Topics:- Nium's partnership with Coinbase and Circle and enabling stablecoin payments - The future of payments with stablecoins and tokenized deposits - Institutions adopting stablecoins and cryptoBrought to you by

For episode 747 of the BlockHash Podcast, host Brandon Zemp is joined by Bret Kenwell, a US Investment and Options Analyst at eToro. eToro is a retail brokerage platform offering access to crypto and traditional asset classes to 40 million users globally. They allow users to trade diverse financial assets like stocks, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs.

Markets can remain resilient longer than many expect, but understanding what is fueling the rally is critical for managing risk and protecting long-term financial goals. Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff tackle your questions about what is really driving stocks higher, whether earnings expectations are becoming too optimistic, the risks of narrow market leadership, portfolio positioning in today's environment, bonds, inflation, artificial intelligence, and what investors should be watching next. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 0:50 - Micron Earnings Day 5:30 - Dollar Rally & Money Flows 6:38 - Markets Break Below Consolidation 10:51 - How We Spend Money 13:23 - Do All IPO's Go Down After Lock-up Period? 18:18 - Where do Foreign Money Flows Come From? 19:21 - What to Do When Markets Feel "Toppy?" 24:32 - Manage Your Money for Risk, not Beating an Index 26:21 - Promises vs Reality 29:19 - Explaining Preferred Stock, Bonds, Shares (& pecking order in Bankruptcy) 33:37 - Can a Continued Rally in the Dollar Impact Markets? 35:31 - Concerned about U.S. Gov't. Debt? 40:27 - Effects of Foreign Money Creation on Domestic Money Flows 44:30 - The Importance of Convexity in a Portfolio 47:39 - Olive Garden vs Italy Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/b7C0L0Sd2mU ------- Watch our previous show, "The New Rules of Portfolio Protection" https://youtube.com/live/donQO1t_hLs ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" feature, "Micron Earnings: The Bar Is Too High" here: https://youtu.be/v7poBC45Le0 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-technical-backdrop-when-flows-meet-a-hawkish-fed/ "Kevin Warsh And The End Of The Fed's “Forward Guidance” https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/kevin-warsh-and-the-end-of-the-feds-forward-guidance/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, "Narrative Busters: Market Stories Investors Should Approach With Caution," Saturday, July 18, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/RfJtCj2byfDr --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Micron #Semiconductors #StockMarket #EarningsSeason #Investing #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #MarketOutlook

First-time homebuyers may get short windows of relief, but our co-head of Securitized Products Research James Egan and Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley's Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe say the bigger story is a housing market resetting around a higher bar to entry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Strategy.Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist within Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.James Egan: And today, why first-time homebuyers are facing a tougher path to ownership.It's Tuesday, June 23rd at 10am in New York.Buying a first-time home has always been a big step, but for a growing number of first-time buyers today, the goal can really seem insurmountable.Mortgage rates might be down from where they were in the second half of 2023, but they're significantly higher than they were for the several years before that. Monthly payments have roughly doubled for a median-priced home. And my colleague Jay Bacow and I have talked several times on this podcast about how many homeowners feel like they're locked into those lower rates.And they're staying put because they just don't want to give up a two or three-handle mortgage rate for something that has a six in front of it. But Sarah, as we know, this is bigger than just first-time buyers. Now, they often start the housing transaction chain, and when they can't buy, current owners may not be able to sell and trade up.That slows turnover across the market, and it also reduces activity tied to housing – from mortgages and renovations to moving and furniture. And it can keep would-be buyers renting for longer, which adds pressure to rental demand.So, how do you see this situation? Is this just another affordability squeeze, or has the housing market reset to a higher barrier to entry?Sarah Wolfe: I do think that we're on the upper bound of affordability pressures. This is about as bad as it's going to get. But as we discussed in our recent publication of The Economy Explained, unfortunately, we do think that the housing market is resetting at a structurally higher barrier to entry. There's a lot of reasons for that.The first is higher interest rates. Yes, mortgage rates are sitting around 6.5 percent, and they should come down from here, but maybe not better than 5.5 percent, right, in an optimistic scenario. The second is demographic pressures. Remember, we have this tremendous aging population of baby boomers. All of their children are now entering their prime home-buying years, so there's a lot of demand for ownership.The third and fourth ones are land regulation and permitting, which is at the state and local level, really hard to change. And the last one is climate risk. It's just raising insurance pricing and making it much more difficult to buy a home.So overall, we see a world where, yes, mortgage rates come down a bit, improve affordability marginally, but we think neutral and other interest rates at the longer end of the curve are going to be higher than the post-financial crisis period. And what we're going to see is that those forces are going to widen the divide between who can own a home and who cannot. And who gains from that wealth accumulation and who does not.James Egan: Right. So now, you mentioned where mortgage rates are today, above that 6 percent rate. Rates did briefly – in February, we got below 6 percent before they bounced back up here. Why did that short-lived relief matter so much?Sarah Wolfe: I think that short-lived relief showed us that moves in the mortgage rate make a difference, but things are so unaffordable that it didn't make that much of a difference.So, the dip below 6 percent was very exciting. It happened this past February. It was the first time that mortgage rates fell below 6 percent since 2022, and we saw a few things happen. First, it lowered the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers from about two point two thousand dollars a month to one point nine thousand.So makes a bit of a difference. And it lowered the share of income that goes towards monthly mortgage payments from about 26 percent of income to 22 percent, from peak to trough. So, that is a notable improvement. But what we saw in the new home sales data and the existing home sales data, that it did not drive people back into the housing market.I want to turn it back to you though, Jim, because you've actually done a lot of interesting work on this. And how this change in mortgage rates has changed the monthly cost that people have to pay for a median-priced home. Can you tell us a little bit more?James Egan: Sure. So, we talk about the lock-in effect a lot, and it's kind of easy to point to: Well, there are a lot of people with mortgage rates that are around 3 percent or 3.5 percent, and the prevailing rate's at 6 percent, and that's a lot higher, so they're locked in.But when we look at the actual numbers in terms of what we're asking a homeowner to do – to list their home for sale and move to another home today, pay off that existing mortgage, take out a new one. When you take into account how much higher home prices are today…You bought a home in 2016, for instance, right? Let's assume you refinanced in 2020 or 2021 if you still live there, right? Most homeowners did. So, you've actually taken your monthly payment, and it is lower today than it was when you bought your home in 2016. If we assume that your income has risen alongside just median household income over that time period, your monthly payment as a share of your income today is probably sub 8 percent.If you bought over the past three years, your monthly payment is a share of your income. You mentioned some numbers earlier. It's low to mid 20 percent. From a dollar amount perspective, if you were to pay off that 2016 mortgage, as an example, and take out one today, your payment is probably [$]13[00] or $1400 higher. It's like a 200 percent increase. That's very difficult economically for a lot of households, and that's the kind of physical manifestation of that lock-in effect.Now, Sarah, given this significant change in housing math, what does that mean for who is actually able to buy in this market?Sarah Wolfe: It's making who's able to buy into the market a lot more selective. So, what we're seeing is that first-time home buyers today are actually not meaningfully older. They're still about 36 years old, but they are a much more selective group financially. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York put out a great analysis on this recently, and they basically found that the first-time home buyer profile today is taking out a mortgage that's nearly $350,000, compared to $240,000 in 2019 and $200,000, a decade ago. So, significant increase in mortgage balances.At the same time, credit standards have tightened significantly, so that average credit score to get a mortgage has risen quite a bit over the last 5 to 10 years. And what this is doing is it's shifting who can buy and also where they can buy. So, we're seeing higher-quality home buyers moving to lower-income zip codes. So, buying cheaper homes in lower-income metro areas, and so it's wealthier buyers in lower-income areas.And that's the really big shift that we're seeing. It's a demand resorting story. And what we're also seeing, and we hear this a lot when we talk to our financial advisors and their clients, is that family is increasingly helping their other family members put that down payment down; in particular, parents helping their children buy that first home.So, we're seeing that first-time buyers may be feeling this pressure, right, when it comes to rates. How much of this affordability issue, though, is being driven by the locked-in effect specifically?James Egan: So, look, it's clearly playing a role. We just talked about some of the math behind that. But then when you look at what that means on a nationwide basis when it comes to inventory, when it comes to so many other aspects of this, that homeowner who's unwilling to give up that lower mortgage rate, that lower payment, right, their homes are off the market.Existing inventories for sale, they've picked up from historic lows in 2023, but they're still very, very low on a long-run basis. The fewer homes there are for sale, the more upward pressure or the absence of downward pressure that's going to put on home prices, right?We saw affordability plummet in 2022 and 2023 when rates backed up. We saw existing home sales really, really come down as a result. But home prices remained at record highs. They continued to set new record highs. For home prices to actually come down, right, you need people who are willing to sell at lower home prices.Sarah, you just mentioned that lending standards themselves remain tight.Sarah Wolfe: Mm-hmm.James Egan: Those forced sales, those tend to be distressed transactions. We don't see that distress in the market providing the inventory and the motivated inventory to lead to softer home prices. So, it's really that lack of inventory which we think is in large part driven by the lock-in effect that's kept home prices. And as a result, that piece of the affordability equation kind of stuck at these higher levels.Sarah Wolfe: I mean, it's really this vicious cycle, the locked-in effect making it difficult for entry-level buyers to get into the market – and then fewer existing homeowners sell or trade up or relocate. So, on and on it goes.Are there broader implications of this freeze?James Egan: Right. So, we just talked about what that means from an inventory perspective. And then if you think about affordability remaining challenged, lending standards themselves remaining tight, inventory remaining as low as it is, you could argue that we're at one of the more difficult times that we've seen for renters to exit rentership and step into homeownership.Now, there's a lot of different things that drive rent growth, and the fact that you have a stuck renter is just one of them. The other side of that equation can be the supply of rental units, right? So that's just a piece of the equation.But those are some of the externalities that we think about when it comes to how the tightness of the housing market – what the lock-in effect and what affordability is doing there. But outside of the housing market, Sarah, the wider economy, like how do these housing costs play a role there?Sarah Wolfe: Massive effect. Some of the work that we've done shows that housing affordability is the number one driver pushing down fertility rates in America. The number one driver. Above childcare costs, above finding a partner, finding a good job. It's housing affordability. So, you could see how that could pretty significantly ripple through the broader economy.But there's other components, right? So, as we discussed earlier, it's driving migration from unaffordable areas to more affordable regions. That has significant implications. And then putting my consumer economist hat on, as we discussed earlier in the podcast, when people buy a home, they tie themselves to that home. They spend money on couches, on beds, on TVs, right? Durable goods. And if we're going to have more people as renters for longer, that's going to expand the services economy at the expense of the goods economy.All right. Let's take a step back and think about where this is all going. It hasn't been a very optimistic conversation. Jim, what is the outlook for affordability in your view? Do we get anywhere back to the post-financial crisis period or even the pre-financial crisis period?James Egan: When it comes to the outlook for mortgage rates, the outlook for affordability, the outlook for the U.S. housing market – look, we just, throughout Morgan Stanley Research and Strategy, published our 2026 major outlook. From now through the end of 2027, we don't have conventional mortgage rates getting below 6 percent.We do have affordability improving on the margins. We have income growth exceeding home price appreciation that makes it a little bit better, but that doesn't get us back to the post-GFC affordability era, which was very, very affordable. Looking back over the past several decades, it gets us closer to where we were pre-GFC, not all the way back there.But when we think about how that ripples through the housing market and how we think about that evolving from here, look, we do think that the state of mortgage credit availability means there will be a lack of distress. We think that while affordability itself may be challenged and inventories may be low, there is some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where mortgage rates are or affordability is.We think we found that level. We think there's support for home sales at these current levels, and that combination of support for home sales, lack of inventory, means that home prices, very little room for them to grow from here. But we think they're going to be pretty supported.So, from a housing market perspective, at a ten-thousand-foot view, we're calling it 1-2 percent growth in sales, in home prices, well-supported. But the affordability outlook that we've outlined throughout this podcast – challenged to see a lot of acceleration.Now, when we pull it back to the first-time home buyer, based on our conversation, it seems that the key question is becoming less about when to buy, more about who can still afford to enter the market.But Sarah, it's really been great talking with you about the housing market today.Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Jim.James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today. ***Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

SHOP AMAZON PRIME DAY & BEYOND! http://milestomemories.com/go/amazon   Shawn is back from Morocco with the full Casablanca recap, from the Hassan II Mosque and the wild stained glass inside Notre Dame to a faded five-star Hyatt, Africa's biggest mall, and a horse race inside a country club. Plus the jet lag hack that actually worked: skip the food, sleep the whole flight, and land feeling brand new. We also get into why the world is suddenly obsessed with ranch dressing and American quirks, the new Global Entry machines, and whether business class is even worth it if you sleep right through it. Episode Guide: 0:00 - Welcome to MTM Travel 0:21 - Why the World Is Discovering Ranch Dressing & US Quirks 3:25 - Father's Day, the Cottage & the Great E-Bike Debate 6:23 - Casablanca: The Name, the History & First Impressions 8:53 - The Corniche, Sindibad Park & Africa's Biggest Mall 10:55 - Horseback on the Beach (Booked with Chase Travel) 11:49 - The Sights: Notre Dame, the French Quarter & Hassan II Mosque 13:04 - Is Casablanca Worth It? A Melting Pot of Religions 14:29 - Hyatt Regency Casablanca, World Cup Fever & the Markets 17:34 - The Flight Home & the Dana White Jet Lag Hack 20:24 - Brutal Service, Bad Food & 55K AA Miles 22:15 - Sleep vs the Full Experience: Is Skipping the Meal Worth It? 26:08 - New Global Entry Machines & Faster Passport Renewals ✈️ Track your travel credit cards for free

The land investing market has changed dramatically over the past few years, and in this episode, Neil Clements joins me to break down what's really happening behind the scenes.(Show Notes)We discuss why the market has become increasingly buyer-friendly, how interest rates continue to shape land values, why margins are shrinking, and what successful investors are doing to adapt. We also dive into competition, cash flow strategies, AI tools, land pricing trends, and the habits that separate investors who survive tough markets from those who struggle.If you're a land investor, real estate investor, or entrepreneur trying to navigate today's market, this conversation offers a valuable perspective on where things stand and where opportunities may be emerging.

Avery Ching, Co-Founder & CEO at Aptos Labs, joined me to discuss the latest developments on the Aptos blockchain, including privacy, AI, and more.Topics: - Aptos the first L1 where dynamic dispatch can be formally verified - Aptos commits $50M to expand its tech stack for trading and AI workloads- AI and Blockchain synergy - Privacy on the Aptos blockchain Brought to you by

Crypto News: US Senate passes bill to ban the Federal Reserve from creating a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). 118-year-old Scottish investment firm Baillie Gifford has launched a tokenized corporate bond fund on Ethereum and Solana. Brought to you by

Get my new book: https://bronsonequity.com/fireyourselfDownload my new special report - How to Use Inflation to Your Advantage - www.bronsonequity.com/inflationIn this webinar replay of The Mailbox Money Show, host Bronson Hill and the experts break down current multifamily challenges, supply absorption timelines, capital raising strategies during uncertainty, non-correlated alternative assets, deal vetting best practices, and how AI is transforming investing. Packed with real-time market insights and actionable advice for both active and passive investors.Panelists:Hunter Thompson (RaiseMasters) – Capital raising expert and multifamily operator focused on Phoenix.Zach Hapenstall (Rise 48 Equity) – Multifamily operator with deep market experience in Sun Belt growth areas.Patrick Grimes (Passive Investing Mastery) – Advocate for non-correlated assets including debt, industrial, medical, and legal investments.Tune in for honest strategies to find deals, build resilient portfolios, and thrive in today's evolving market.TIMESTAMPS0:41 - Welcome!1:24 - Bronson Equity Promo Video2:32 - Panelist Introductions3:54 - Multifamily Market Overview and Supply Challenges9:17 - Raising Capital in Uncertain Markets14:35 - Non-Correlated Assets and Alternative Investments17:03 - Multifamily Headwinds and Timeline for Recovery25:51 - Deal Availability and Buying Opportunities30:20 - Shifting Strategies to Debt, Industrial, and Medical Assets34:48 - Vetting Deals and Operators39:49 - Using AI as an Investor47:28 - Bonus Depreciation and Tax Questions50:34 - AI Resources and Tools54:35 - Closing Remarks and How to ConnectConnect with the Guests:Hunter Thompson:See their deals - www.asymcapital.comWebsite - raisingcapital.comZach Hapenstall:LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/zach-haptonstall/Website - www.Rise48Equity.com/InvestPatrick Grimes:Website - https://passiveinvestingmastery.com/Alternative Investing Mastery Series - https://passiveinvestingmastery.com/alternative-series-78/#MultifamilyInvesting#AlternativeAssets#CapitalRaising#RealEstateMarket#PassiveInvesting#AIinInvesting#DealVetting

Markets were hit with a broad risk-off selloff as more than $717 million in crypto positions were liquidated, dragging Bitcoin below $62,000 and pushing major cryptocurrencies sharply lower. Matt examines why this wasn't just a crypto event, but a market-wide move that also hit technology stocks, AI-related assets, and SpaceX, raising questions about whether investors are reacting to geopolitical risks, institutional positioning, or something else entirely.The episode also covers Strategy's weakening preferred stock and what it could mean for the company's Bitcoin acquisition strategy, the Senate's passage of a four-year ban on a Federal Reserve CBDC, and Ripple's preliminary MiCA approval in Europe. Matt also explores growing concerns around quantum computing after new government initiatives aimed at preparing for future encryption threats, and what that could eventually mean for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and digital asset security.Finally, Matt looks at the ongoing SpaceX correction, discusses Craig Cobb's warning that lower Bitcoin lows may still be ahead, and asks the question many investors are wondering this morning: if everything is selling off at once, what does the market know that we don't?Happy Hodling, Everyone. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The AI boom is tossing equities around like tiny boats. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask investor Ruchir Sharma how to ride it all out. Sharma is the chair of Rockefeller International and the author of What Went Wrong with Capitalism. The show was recorded at the FT Weekend Festival in New York. Also they go long quality stocks that are out of the tech spotlight and short sharks. For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Southwest Power Pool’s expansion into the West marks a major step toward greater regional coordination of the electric grid. --- Earlier this year the Southwest Power Pool, the electric grid operator for much of the central United States, expanded into the Western Interconnection, becoming the first Regional Transmission Organization to operate in both the Eastern and Western grids. The move comes as Western utilities seek to address rising electricity demand, the integration of growing amounts of clean energy, and concerns about future grid reliability, challenges that broader regional coordination may help address. SPP plans to build on that expansion with Markets+, a new regional market initiative scheduled to launch in 2027. Together, these efforts represent one of the most significant pushes yet toward greater electricity market coordination in the American West. They also come as California’s grid operator pursues its own effort to expand regional market participation through its Extended Day-Ahead Market, or EDAM, giving Western utilities multiple paths toward closer regional integration, each with different approaches to governance and market oversight. On the podcast, SPP Chief Executive Officer Lanny Nickell discusses SPP’s expansion into the West and the development of Markets+. He explains why Western utilities are becoming more interested in regional coordination, the tradeoffs between independence and larger markets, and what these developments may mean for the future of the electric grid in the American West. Lanny Nickell is the Chief Executive Officer of Southwest Power Pool. Related Content Mobile Energy Storage: Flexibility for the Energy Transition https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/research/publications/mobile-energy-storage-flexibility-for-the-energy-transition/ Congestion in General Equilibrium: Nodal Electricity Pricing, Production, and Welfare https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/research/publications/congestion-in-general-equilibrium-nodal-electricity-pricing-production-and-welfare/ Energy Policy Now is produced by The Kleinman Center for Energy Policy at the University of Pennsylvania. For all things energy policy, visit kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Markets are near highs, but momentum is slowing, breadth remains narrow, buybacks are entering blackout periods, and investors are looking for ways to participate in gains without exposing themselves to a major drawdown. Lance Roberts & Jon Penn discuss practical portfolio protection strategies that don't require moving entirely to cash. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 0:58 - End of Quarter Rebalancing Begins 4:25 - Markets to Retest 50-DMA 9:17 - How to Stay Invested Without Getting Burned 14:19 - Take Some Profits & Stay Disciplined 16:10 - Two Camps of Space-X 23:34 - The AI/Industrial Revolution 20:45 - The market is changing how we manage money 27:39 - Avoiding Catastrophic Loss of Capital 30:35 - 15 Rules of Risk Management 31:47 - How to Hedge Your Portfolio 36:21 - The Risk in Trading 40:14 - Bull markets Breed Confidence 43:42 - Be Careful of Narratives vs Market Behavior 45:24 - Remember How You React to Market Downturns (pain) 47:56 - Hedging Your Portfolio is not a Binary Issue Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Jonathan Penn, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/donQO1t_hLs ------- Watch our previous show, "hen Money Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed" https://youtube.com/live/UYxvj5axVTQ ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" feature, "Quarter-End Rebalancing Hits Markets," here: https://youtu.be/REkG7SgcVhw ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Technical Backdrop: When Flows Meet a Hawkish Fed: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-technical-backdrop-when-flows-meet-a-hawkish-fed/ "Kevin Warsh And The End Of The Fed's “Forward Guidance” https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/kevin-warsh-and-the-end-of-the-feds-forward-guidance/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, "Narrative Busters: Market Stories Investors Should Approach With Caution," Saturday, July 18, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/RfJtCj2byfDr --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #PortfolioManagement #MarketVolatility #Investing #RiskManagement #PortfolioProtection #RiskManagement #RetirementPlanning #InvestingStrategy #WealthManagement

US equity futures are under pressure, Asian markets are sharply lower, while European equities are also weaker. Markets are being driven by continued weakness in large-cap technology stocks and elevated volatility following the hawkish Fed stance. While progress in US-Iran talks has weighed on oil prices and provided some support to the macro backdrop, it has done little to offset risk-off sentiment tied to tech sector declines. Positioning dynamics, upcoming inflation data, and key earnings events are reinforcing a cautious tone, with geopolitical developments and rate expectations remaining central to near-term market direction.Companies Mentioned: Qualcomm, Eli Lilly, Apollo Global Management

Send us Fan MailFinancial Advisor Tim Russell, CFP®, Pastor Drew Gysi, and Tyler Rutherford tackle an important question many believers have asked: why don't pastors talk about money? We explore the fears, challenges, and misconceptions surrounding financial conversations in the church, while offering a Biblical vision for healthy stewardship discipleship that helps pastors and congregations pursue wisdom, generosity, and Gospel-centered financial faithfulness.See the show notes here!Subscribe to "Life in the Markets" PodcastBuy our new book: The Good StewardWealth Management from a Biblical WorldviewStewardship Seminars from a Biblical WorldviewLearn more at: StewardologyPodcast.comSchedule a Personal Stewardship Review at: StewardologyPodcast.com/ReviewGet in touch with us at: Contact@StewardologyPodcast.comor call us at: (800) 688-5800Send us episode ideas! StewardologyPodcast.com/ideaSubscribe to get episodes delivered to your inbox every week.Follow along: Facebook, InstagramA ministry of Life Financial Group & Life Institute.Securities and Advisory Services offered through GENEOS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INC. Member FINRA and SIPC

Markets are digesting a global tech selloff as investors weigh whether the recent pullback in semiconductors and AI stocks is a healthy reset or the start of a broader correction. Plus, concerns around massive AI spending, SpaceX valuation risks and insider selling pressure are raising new questions about some of the market's hottest trades. Later, Micron earnings, FedEx results, and consumer spending trends could provide key signals on the strength of the economy and the next move for stocks. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Can a phone be a cow? It could in 1990s Bangladesh. This was the insight of a small number of mobile phone market pioneers who helped catalyze the spread of the greatest technological revolution in human history. Listen as George Mason University economist Philip Auerswald speaks to EconTalk's Russ Roberts about how the extension of connectivity to traditionally excluded populations led to wide-scale transformations in productivity. They discuss the role of little-known entrepreneurs such as Iqbal Quadir and innovators like Claude Shannon in bringing the mobile phone to the entire world. Other topics include William Nordhaus's paper on the cost of illumination as a powerful metric of human progress, Schumpeter's notion of innovation as new combinations, and what Auerswald calls the most important question the field of economics can ask: How much of human progress is inevitable, and how much depends on the determination of remarkable individuals?

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reacts to Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting, explaining why the new chair's credibility may require letting markets experience some short-term pain.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing my views on the New Fed Chair and how to interpret his FOMC meeting last week.It's Monday, June 22nd at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it.I want to spend today on what I think was one of the more important market events of the year so far. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as the Chair. Specifically, he is trying to fortify credibility at a very delicate moment. The economy is stronger than many expected. Inflation is still running above target. And markets have become accustomed to central banks telling them exactly what to think.Back in February, when Warsh was nominated, I argued that this was the right choice if the goal was to lift market credibility. At that time, precious metals were rising parabolically. To me that was a bad signal that markets were questioning whether policy makers could really run the economy hot without creating a disorderly move in the dollar or a broader inflation problem.Since Warsh's nomination, the S&P 500-to-gold ratio is up close to 40 percent, and I view that as a powerful vote of confidence from the markets. It suggests investors are giving Warsh the benefit of the doubt – that he can shake up the Fed, reduce reliance on the balance sheet as a policy tool, and solidify discipline that gives the administration some breathing room.But here's the catch. Enhancing credibility is not always painless. In fact, credibility must be earned by doing something markets don't immediately like. And last week had some of that flavor. Stocks weakened, the yield curve bear-flattened, the dollar strengthened, and precious metals sold off. From my perspective, that is not a failed first meeting. That is a good and necessary first step. What stood out to me most was Warsh's emphasis on the inflation mandate. He made it very clear that the Fed's primary responsibility is price stability – not managing every wiggle in the labor market, not smoothing every risk asset drawdown, and not hand-holding investors through every data point. And frankly, after five years of missing the inflation target, that message was overdue.The stronger economy and improving private payroll data give the Fed room to lean into that message. I don't think this means the Fed is about to hike rates immediately, or even necessarily this year. But it does mean the reaction function has changed, and markets do not like uncertainty around the Fed path.The other major shift was communication. Warsh appears to be moving away from excessive forward guidance, and I think that's a very healthy development. For years, I've argued that the Fed became too influential in shaping not only market behavior, but also how investors interpreted the data. When markets are only trying to guess what the Fed will say next, the Fed loses the value of market prices as an independent signal. That's backwards. Markets should be reacting to incoming information, and the Fed should be learning from those reactions – not vice versa.A little less Fed hand-holding may be uncomfortable, but ironically it is necessary to get to a more stable place. Investors may not like it in the short term, but the system works better when market prices are less impeded by policy manipulation. The wisdom of crowds is often better than the wisdom of committees.The near-term risk for equities is not rate hikes or even uncertainty. It's liquidity. Balance sheet support has already started to fade. The Reserve Management Program is down roughly 75 percent from its peak, Treasury buybacks have been reduced by 50 percent. And at the same time lending growth is accelerating because the real economy is using more capital. That combination means liquidity is tightening, and our work suggests that could remain a headwind for stocks into July.Bottom line, the market may test Warsh's resolve. That's what markets do. The key question is whether the Fed tolerates some short-term pain in order to strengthen longer-term credibility. My guess is that it tries to do exactly that, until funding markets, credit markets, or bond volatility forces its hand to add more liquidity and loosen financial conditions again. That argues for choppy and even corrective price action in equity markets in the near term until the earnings led bull market has its next leg higher. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Jun 22, 2026 – In this first installment of a two-part Lifetime Planning series, Senior Wealth Manager Brendan McMurtrie and Wealth Advisor Ryan Puplava reveal why the annual financial review is your most powerful planning tool...

Take a Network Break! Our Red Alert covers critical vulnerabilities found in OpenClaw, the open-source AI assistant. On the news front, we discuss the status of Anthropic’s Project Glasswing and examine the Korean Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute‘s (ETRI) development of an intelligent, service-programmable mobile core network, a key enabling technology for the 6G era.... Read more »

Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Sara Eisen led off the show with market reaction to positive comments by Vice President Vance about the U.S.-Iran negotiations. AI in the spotlight: Chevron announced it signed a 20-year agreement with Microsoft to provide power for the tech giant's massive West Texas data center project. The anchors remembered the influential former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan, who died Monday at the age of 100. Also in focus: President Trump's comments on Anthropic and national security, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella's message for companies leading the AI boom, SpaceX shares on track for a three-day losing streak, AbbVie agrees to buy immunology drugmaker Apogee Therapeutics for $10.9 billion in cash. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Will peace in the Middle East lead to an oil glut? And what did investors learn from Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Federal Reserve chairman? Plus, is SpaceX stock coming back to earth? Host Imani Moise discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices