Podcasts about markets

At the 2025 TRACE Forum, Kirk Foster, Assistant General Counsel and Director of Compliance at HII Mission Technologies, explores how organizations can use Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) alongside compliance to proactively address emerging risks. By leveraging ERM, Kirk discusses how companies can make data-driven decisions, increase efficiency, reduce redundancy, and support business growth.

Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Opening and introductions01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimersCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again Markets is sideways mode The scary tariffs and a walk back Apple News........ PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter We're dedicating this episode to Sophia Maria — someone very special who left us too soon... Warm-Up - A new crisis is brewing - banking sector again - Markets is sideways mode - The scary tariffs and a walk back - Apple News........ - Announcing the WINNER of the CTP for LAC Markets - Yields dropping - Region bank scare due to 2/3 bankruptcies (new stress) - Fed stops tightening - why is that? - TACO trade is back - Buig Tech earnings on the way "Just when you think that the coast is clear - the banks will somehow screw things up" US Government Shutdown - Day 19? Bitcoin - Hits all-time high above $125,000 - then pulls back - Big moves with crypto last couple of weeks - Trump tariff comments spooked speculators -- Some coins were down 15-25% after the close on that Friday GOLDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD! - Taking a walloping last couple of days... -- Was really overbought -- Silver getting hammered too (8% in 2 days) Gold, Silver BOOM - Also hits new highs - then backs off a tad - Major holiday in India --- First day of Diwali in India - Buying gold (and silver) on Dhanteras is considered highly auspicious. It symbolizes: -- Wealth and prosperity, invoking blessings from Goddess Lakshmi (the deity of wealth). -- Health and longevity, honoring Lord Dhanvantari, the divine healer who is believed to have emerged with the nectar of immortality on this day. --  Financial stability, as gold is seen as a secure and pure investment. New Phrase - Like the use of TAM - Total Addressable Market or other PR phrases.... - "Right to win" is a business strategy concept that refers to a company's ability to enter a competitive market with a high probability of success, based on its unique advantages. It is not an automatic entitlement but is earned through a coherent strategy that aligns a company's "way to play" (its strategy) with its core capabilities and assets. This requires a clear, sustainable competitive advantage over rivals - Heard this just today TWICE - CEO of NASDAQ and CEO of Goldman Sachs - OBNOXIOUS! Super TACO - What was that? - Bad lunch or something? - 100% tariff on China - on a Friday afternoon - - Vance walks-back on Saturday - Just a negotiating tactic (so dumb) - Trump Walks back on Sunday Warnings - David Solomon (GS CEO) - Speaking at Italian Tech Week in Turin, Italy, he said a “drawdown” was likely to hit stock markets in the coming two years. - Relating to the dot.com bubble: “You're going to see a similar phenomenon here,” he said. “I wouldn't be surprised if in the next 12 to 24 months, we see a drawdown with respect to equity markets ... I think that there will be a lot of capital that's deployed that will turn out to not deliver returns, and when that happens, people won't feel good.” More Warnings - Jamie Dimon talks about cockroaches related to the recent bankruptcies (where there is one - there are more...) - First Brands Group, an auto parts supplier, filed for bankruptcy with over $11.6 billion in liabilities. The company's use of invoice factoring—allegedly pledging the same receivables to multiple lenders—has triggered a federal investigation and raised alarms about off-balance-sheet financing. - Tricolor Holdings, a subprime auto lender, is accused of fraudulently pledging risky loan portfolios to multiple banks. The fallout has led to significant write-downs at institutions like JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bancorp. -- The regional banks under pressure as this is developing.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations and how they could affect investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today, we're talking about the U.S. and China—why the relationship remains complicated, and what it means for markets. It's Tuesday, Oct 21st, at 12:30pm in New York. If you've been following headlines, you know that U.S.-China relations are rarely out of the news. But beneath the surface, the dynamics are more nuanced than the daily soundbytes suggest. Investors often ask: Are we headed for a decoupling of the two economies, or is there room for cooperation? The answer, as always, is—it's complicated. Let's start with the basics. The U.S. and China are deeply intertwined economically, but strategic competition has intensified. Recent years have seen tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology transfer. Yet, there's still plenty of trade between the two countries, and both economies are dependent on each other for growth and innovation. So what's going on now? In recent weeks, China has moved to tighten rare earth export controls and the U.S. has proposed 100 percent tariffs in return. If this came to pass, these events could mark a clear economic split. But given the interdependencies we just cited, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. So, a truce seems more likely, perhaps with somewhat different terms than the narrow semis-for-rare earths agreement they made this spring. And longer term, this episode seems to be a part of a broader dynamic, where rolling negotiations and truces are more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. For fixed income investors, this drives some important considerations. First, U.S. industrial policy is ramping up, with clear implications for AI infrastructure. AI is an area where the U.S. views it as essential that they outcompete China. Supported by renewed CapEx incentives from the latest tax bill, it's clear to us that U.S. companies will be pushing further into AI development, where my colleagues have identified $2.9 trillion of data center financing needs over the next three years, about half of which will come from various credit markets. And for credit investors, this presents an important opportunity. Another consideration is how markets will balance near-term growth risks with an array of medium term growth possibilities. As our U.S. economics team has pointed out, the evidence suggests that corporates haven't yet been forced to make tough decisions about passing on or absorbing tariff costs, underscoring that trade-related growth pressures aren't yet in the rearview. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown doesn't help either. It's all a good argument for why bond yields could move lower in the near term. But also, we should expect yield curves could steepen more, with higher relative yields in longer maturities. This would reflect greater uncertainties around higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and economic growth. Our economists have been calling out the mixed messages in economic data, as well as a U.S. fiscal sustainability picture that appears reliant on acceleration in corporate CapEx for a manufacturing and AI-driven growth burst. In sum, the U.S.-China relationship is evolving, with global implications that don't lend themselves to easy narratives or quick fixes. Our challenge will continue to be crafting investment strategies that reflect durable policy undercurrents, the signal amid news headline noise. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague.

The biggest crypto liquidation in history just rocked the markets as President Trump drops a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, sparking a global sell-off that hit crypto first and hardest. But even as traders panic, Bitcoin is surging ahead of the Fed meeting, teasing a new all-time high. We’re breaking down the chaos — from $431 million in token unlocks to the mysterious rise of Hyperliquid, the DeFi exchange everyone’s suddenly obsessed with. Plus, Goldman Sachs says gold’s still got game… and why some insiders are declaring “Bitcoin is not crypto.” Markets are melting, narratives are flipping, and the storm is just getting started. Don’t miss this one. Full Show Notes at badco.in/793 SUBSCRIBE, RATE, & REVIEW: Apple Podcasts: http://badco.in/itunesSpotify: http://badco.in/spotifySoundcloud: http://badco.in/soundcloudYouTube: http://badco.in/youtube FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA: X/Twitter: @BadCryptoPod - @JoelComm - @TeeDubyaFacebook: /BadCrypto - /JoelComm - /teedubyawLinkedIn: /in/joelcomm - /in/teedubyaInstagram: @BadCryptoPodcast DISCLAIMER: Do your own due diligence and research. Neither Joel Comm, Zach Comm nor Travis Wright are FINANCIAL ADVISORS. We are sharing our journey with you as we learn more about this crazy little thing called cryptocurrency. We make NO RECOMMENDATIONS. Don't take anything we say as gospel. Do not come to our homes with pitchforks because you lost money by listening to us. We only share with you what we are learning and what we are investing it. We will never "pump or dump" any cryptocurrencies. Take what we say with a grain of salt. You must research this stuff on your own! Just know that we will always strive for RADICAL TRANSPARENCY with any show associations.Support the show: https://badcryptopodcast.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The A.M. Update dives into the ongoing federal government shutdown entering its fourth week, with Democrats and Republicans trading blame while betting markets predict a six-week stalemate. An Amazon Web Services outage disrupts major platforms like Snapchat and Zoom, exposing risks of centralized internet infrastructure. Plus, a daring heist at the Louvre Museum sees thieves escape with priceless jewels, and Curtis Sliwa defends his New York City mayoral run against calls to drop out.   government shutdown, Amazon outage, Louvre heist, Curtis Sliwa, New York City mayor race, Andrew Cuomo, Zoran Mamdani, Obamacare subsidies, Donald Trump, AWS infrastructure

David is inspired today by a recent WSJ op-ed from the widow of Apple founder, Steve Jobs, arguing that too many philanthropists are using their donations for control rather than impact. David takes the position that too many philanthropists are driven by vanity, too many charities are driven by grift, and not enough philanthropists are wisely maintaining their leverage -- not for control, but for intended impact. A nuanced Capital Record with a message a lot of people will not like.Show notes:Beware of Philanthropists Who Want Control in Exchange for Their Giving  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Recent bankruptcies of companies that accessed the private debt market are a reminder that manager selection is of the utmost importance. The real acid test for the private debt market will be the next recession, although there are no signs of one on the horizon. Still, the labour market is changing, and we look for a rate cut at the Fed's next meeting on October 29, followed by another three by March. Alibaba claims to have invented a computing pooling solution that reduces the number of Nvidia GPUs needed to serve its AI models by 82%. An index of Hong Kong residential property infers prices are up 6% this month. This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.

Joe Ostrowski and Sam Panayotovich welcome in College Football expert and the creator of the ItsFelder Substack Micahel Felder to discuss all things College Football, including if he agrees with the odds makers on Georgia Tech becoming the new favorites to win the ACC, how does Texas Tech's loss effect the Big 12 race, and can red hot UCLA give Indiana a scare on Saturday? Then, a look at the updated awards markets in the NFL following Week #7, questioning if Jaxon Smith-Njigba can challenge the favored Jonathan Taylor for Offensive Player of the Year and the MVP odds, as Drake Maye rises and Baker Mayfield falls. The hour wraps initial betting insights and thoughts for the World Series between the Blue Jays and Dodgers, with Los Angeles opening as hefty favorites over Toronto. Plus, who should you bet to win World Series MVP, and what is the bet to make for Friday's Game #1?

Oct 21, 2025 – If you've ever been curious about the true health benefits of sauna sessions and red light therapy, you're in good company. In this engaging conversation, Jim Puplava welcomes Vic Riffel from Sunlighten for an in-depth discussion...

The US economy depends more and more on enormous bubbles in the stock market and AI. The 10% of richest Americans drive half of all spending, while the real economy in many states is in recession. If the bubble pops, it could cause a severe crisis. Political economist Ben Norton explains. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXCVrLPTUHQ Topics 0:00 Economy divided between rich & everyone else 1:36 Many US states already in recession 3:11 Biggest stock market bubble in history 5:31 90% of stocks owned by 10% richest Americans 7:23 Magnificent Seven (Mag7) Big Tech stocks 9:07 Ten Titans Big Tech stocks 9:58 AI bubble 11:46 (CLIP) Jeff Bezos: AI is in "good bubble" 13:26 95% of AI pilot programs fail 13:55 Investors keep buying overvalued stocks 15:12 Markets can remain irrational 15:26 Irrational exuberance 15:50 Dot-com bubble 16:28 US share of global stock markets 17:28 US vs Chinese tech company revenue 18:24 Tesla vs global automotive industry 20:49 Top 10 US stocks: 16% global market cap 21:07 Recession 22:23 Stagflation 23:04 AI capex contribution to US GDP growth 25:07 AI is eating the economy 26:01 AI drives up electricity bills 26:50 Trump shuts down renewable energy 27:42 AI adds more to GDP than shopping 28:49 US job growth collapses 32:13 Bifurcated economy 33:01 Outro

Crypto News: Governor Chris Waller announced the central bank is proposing a new type of limited-access master account which is beneficial for crypto and stablecoin companies. Gold is seeing a correction and Bitcoin is starting to move up again. Brought to you by

Today, we note the US equity market strength, but also note some of the signs that the rally is of poor quality as we continue to maintain that we are in an unsustainable bubble, while recognizing we've no ability to call even a temporary top. Also, this is a critical phase for the US-China trade talks as we don't know whether the market's optimism is justified. Thoughts on geopolitics, single stock stories, macro and FX and some compelling further reading and further listening links also on the call. Today's pod is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and Scott Bessent meeting with 15 PE firms and various earnings. Song: Blue Sky - The Allman Brothers BandFor information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

When the bell rings, investors buy — Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers explains why markets still behave like Pavlov's dog. With major earnings rolling in, Mark Mahaney of Evercore ISI breaks down Netflix results, and Bill Browder of Hermitage Capital discusses if markets are mispricing geopolitical risk. Alan Trefler, CEO of Pega Systems, shares insights from the software front, and Seth Goldstein of Morningstar Research looks ahead to Tesla earnings and what they'll reveal about the state of innovation and risk-taking in today's market. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

S&P futures are up +0.1% and pointing to a flat open. Asian equities broadly advanced, buoyed by optimism over US-China trade relations and strong gains in Chinese and Japanese markets. European equity markets also opened higher, following Monday's broad-based gains. Markets initially reacted positively to signs of easing US-China trade tensions but have since pared gains. President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with President Xi at the upcoming APEC summit, while reiterating the threat of a 100% tariff if no agreement is reached by November 1st.Companies Mentioned: Apple, Core Scientific, Flour

Financial Advisor Tim Russell, CFP® and Pastor Drew Gysi talk to Stephen Rohrer about whether or not aesthetics and beauty really matter. Subscribe to "Life in the Markets" PodcastBuy our new book: The Good StewardSee the show notes here!Learn more at: StewardologyPodcast.comSchedule a Personal Stewardship Review at: StewardologyPodcast.com/ReviewGet in touch with us at: Contact@StewardologyPodcast.comor call us at: (800) 688-5800Send us episode ideas! StewardologyPodcast.com/ideaSubscribe to get episodes delivered to your inbox every week.Follow along: Facebook, InstagramA ministry of Life Financial Group & Life Institute.Securities and Advisory Services offered through GENEOS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INC. Member FINRA and SIPC

As the S&P 500 continues to rally, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses three factors that could lead to a stock market correction in the near term.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why we are still in a new bull market even if a correction is likely in the near term. It's Monday, October 20th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. I continue to believe the sharp selloff in April following Liberation Day marked the trough of what was effectively a three-year rolling recession in the U.S. economy. We have written extensively about this view; but it still remains very much out of consensus. Since 2022 most sectors of the private economy have gone through their own individual recession but at different times. The final trough in the rate of change in economic activity came in April around the tariff announcements which came as a surprise to almost everyone, at least in terms of the magnitude and scope. In short, Liberation Day was really capitulation day on the last piece of bad news for the economic cycle which then bottomed. Stocks seem to agree which is why they have rallied in a straight line since then, much like they do after the trough in any economic cycle. The other proof we have for this claim is the v-shaped recovery in earnings revision breadth, something we have discussed for many months in our written research and on this podcast. Based on our numerous conversations with investors, this view remains very unpopular. Instead, most believe the economy and earnings growth for next year are at risk of being lower rather than higher than expected, as I do. Core to my view is that we are now firmly in an inflationary regime since COVID and the implementation of helicopter money to get us out of that crisis. The government has to run it hot to get us out of the massive debt and deficit problem created over the past 20 years. The end result is that investors need to expect hotter but shorter cycles rather than the elongated 10-year cycles we experienced between 1980-2020 when inflation was falling. That means two-year up cycles followed by one-year down cycles for U.S. equity markets, which is exactly what's happened since 2020. We are now in the midst of a new up cycle that began in April. The key thing to understand during this new regime is that inflation is not bad for stocks so long as it's accelerating and the Fed is on the sidelines or easing like in 2020-21, 2023 and now today. Higher inflation means higher earnings growth which is why price earnings multiples are high today. With inflation likely to accelerate next year, stocks are anticipating better earnings growth. In other words, stocks are a hedge against inflation. In fact, relative to gold, high quality stocks may offer a cheaper inflation hedge at this point given their dramatic underperformance to precious metals year-to-date and since 2021. Eventually, inflation will be a problem again for stocks like in 2022 when the Fed has to react by tightening policy, but that's a story for another day. Having said all this, the equity markets are a bit frothy at the moment and so a 10-15 percent correction in the S&P 500 is not only possible but would be normal at this stage of a new bull market. I see three primary reasons for why we could get that in the near term. First, China-U.S. trade relations have recently escalated again, and we are slowly marching toward a November 1st deadline for tariffs on China to go back to Liberation Day levels. While most investors don't want to get sucked into selling at the worst possible time like they did in April, this risk is real and will weigh on stocks if we don't see evidence of a de-escalation in the next few weeks. Second, funding markets have exhibited some signs of increased stress lately. This is likely due to the ongoing quantitative tightening program by the Fed which is draining bank reserves. Should these stresses increase, it could spill over into equities. Third, our earnings revision breadth metric is rolling over now after its historic rise since April. This could continue into earnings season as it's normal to see some retracement from such a high level and tariffs start to flow through from inventories to the income statement. Trade tensions might also weigh on company guidance in the short term. Bottom line, I believe a new bull market began in April with a new rolling economic and earnings recovery that is now quite nascent. However, even new bull markets have corrections along the way, and certain conditions argue we are at risk for the first tradable one since April. Keep your powder dry in the near term for what should be a great buying opportunity, if it arrives. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

 Developers are squeezing more value from tighter sites—Automated Parking Systems for Multifamily can make the deal pencil. Klaus Multiparking's Chris Tiessen breaks down costs, timelines, and real-world ROI. In this conversation, we explore how Automated Parking Systems for Multifamily unlock density, revenue, and approvals when conventional parking won't fit. Chris explains the major system types (independent stackers, puzzle parkers, fully automatic), typical price ranges (~$12k per stacker space, ~$20–25k puzzle, ~$60k+ fully auto), and why many projects hit a ~5-year payback. We discuss when to loop parking engineers in (schematic design), retrofits (ceiling height, site constraints), service coverage, and how AI (plate recognition, billing) will streamline user experience. You'll also hear about Klaus's new Kvario “puzzle-in-a-box” for open lots—perfect for mixed resident/public use (think stadium/game days). If you develop in dense submarkets or need a value-add lever, Automated Parking Systems for Multifamily could be the difference between “no” and “go.”Connect with Chris Tiessen: multiparkingusa.com Chapters:00:00 – Introduction02:39 – System types: stackers, puzzle, fully automatic (Mission Impossible vibes)06:04 – Cost per space & how to think about ROI08:13 – When to engage (schematic design) & install timelines13:30 – Typical payback periods (3–5 years) & monetization ideas20:20 – Markets, service model, and reliability21:39 – How AI will improve UX, billing, and access control33:26 – Gino wraps it up We're here to help create multifamily entrepreneurs... Here's how: Brand New? Start Here: https://jakeandgino.mykajabi.com/free-wheelbarrowprofits Want To Get Into Multifamily Real Estate Or Scale Your Current Portfolio Faster? Apply to join our PREMIER MULTIFAMILY INVESTING COMMUNITY & MENTORSHIP PROGRAM. (*Note: Our community is not for beginner investors)

Discover positive news for markets.  Are you on track for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest can make the biggest difference to your financial freedom and lifestyle. If you invested well for the long-term, what a difference it would make because the difference between investing $100k and earning 5 percent or 10 percent on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $432,194 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.3 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters!  INVESTING IS WHAT THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE IS ALL ABOUT - Invest in digital assets and stock ETFs for potential high compounding rates - Receive an Asset Allocation model with ticker symbols and what % to invest -Monthly LIVE investment webinars with Linda 10 months per year, with Q & A -Private VIP Facebook group with daily community interaction -Weekly investment commentary -Extra educational wealth classes available -Pay once, have lifetime access! NO recurring fees. -US and foreign investors are welcome -No minimum $ amount to invest -Tech Team available for digital assets (for hire per hour) For a limited time, enjoy a 50% savings on my private investing group, the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Pay once and enjoy lifetime access without any recurring fees. Enter "SAVE50" to save 50% here: http://tinyurl.com/InvestingVIP Or set up a complimentary conversation to answer your questions about the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Request an appointment to talk with Linda here: https://tinyurl.com/TalkWithLinda (yes, you talk to Linda!). SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed LINDA'S WEALTH BOOKS 1. Get my book, "3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies". 2. Get my book, “You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!” Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning.  SPECIAL DEALS #Ad Apply for a Gemini credit card and get FREE XRP back (or any crypto you choose) when you use the card. Charge $3000 in first 90 days and earn $200 in crypto rewards when you use this link to apply and are approved: https://tinyurl.com/geminixrp This is a credit card, NOT a debit card. There are great rewards. Set your choice to EARN FREE XRP! #Ad Protect yourself online with a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Get 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for a NORD VPN plan here.  #Ad To safely and securely store crypto, I recommend using a Tangem wallet. Get a 10% discount when you purchase here. #Ad If you are looking to simplify your crypto tax reporting, use Koinly. It is highly recommended and so easy for tax reporting. You can save $20, click here. Be Wealthy & Smart,™ is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor.™ Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom.  (This post contains affiliate links. If you click on a link and make a purchase, I may receive a commission. There is no additional cost to you.)

Take a Network Break! On today’s coverage, F5 releases an emergency security update after state-backed threat actors breach internal systems, and North Korean attackers use the blockchain to host and hide malware. Broadcom is shipping an 800G NIC aimed at AI workloads, and Broadcom joins the Wi-Fi 8 party early with a sampling of pre-standard... Read more »

Mike Gallagher, Drew Dinkmeyer and Austin Yamada break down their predcitions for the upcoming NBA season, talking through who they think will make the playoffs, which teams will advance onto the NBA Finals before picking a winner. They also discuss their picks for NBA Player Awards Markets suchs as NBA MVP, Coach of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year.    0:00 - Introduction 3:51 - Eastern Conference Playoff Seeding Picks 17:35 - Western Conference Playoff Seeding Picks 38:18 - Eastern Conference Playoff Predictions 41:52 - Western Conference Playoff Predictions 45:49 - NBA Finals Predictions 49:03 - NBA Player Awards Predictions

Crypto News: Ripple vets and crypto heavyweights back $1 billion Evernorth to build largest public XRP treasury. 21Shares, Bitwise and WisdomTree open UK retail access to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETPs following FCA approval.Brought to you by

Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly Capital, interview. We discuss how Dragon is approaching investing in crypto.Topics:- Dragonfly Capital's Crypto investment strategy - Investing in Polymarket and ICE's recent investment - What impact CLARITY Act passing will have on Crypto market and industry - Tokenization and 24/7 markets- Memecoins and Human Behavior on the Blockchain - TradFi crypto adoption - Future of Private and BlockchainsBrought to you by ✅ VeChain is a versatile enterprise-grade L1 smart contract platform https://www.vechain.org/ 

Markets are on edge as gold cools off near record highs, traders brace for new U.S.–China trade fallout, and crypto faces another week of uncertainty. Bloomberg reports that gold is holding near $2,580, while analysts warn the trade has become overheated after months of relentless inflows. Meanwhile, China's tech giants have paused their Hong Kong stablecoin plans, signaling fresh regulatory pressure in Asia. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve's Payments Innovation Conference put a spotlight on tokenization, CBDCs, and digital payments, underscoring how central banks are racing to modernize money.

Take a Network Break! On today’s coverage, F5 releases an emergency security update after state-backed threat actors breach internal systems, and North Korean attackers use the blockchain to host and hide malware. Broadcom is shipping an 800G NIC aimed at AI workloads, and Broadcom joins the Wi-Fi 8 party early with a sampling of pre-standard... Read more »

Stocks moved higher thanks to a rise in Apple shares, Investors looked ahead to a possible end to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown as well as a slew of big-name earnings reports and inflation data expected in the coming days, More on the last Pints and Portfolios on Sunday October 26th 11am to 1pm in Berkeley with Rob Black and EP Wealth Advisors

Take a Network Break! On today’s coverage, F5 releases an emergency security update after state-backed threat actors breach internal systems, and North Korean attackers use the blockchain to host and hide malware. Broadcom is shipping an 800G NIC aimed at AI workloads, and Broadcom joins the Wi-Fi 8 party early with a sampling of pre-standard... Read more »

In this episode of The Distribution, host Brandon Sedloff welcomes Alex Robinson, CEO and co-founder of Juniper Square, for a deep dive into the evolving role of artificial intelligence within private markets. As a returning guest, Alex discusses Juniper Square's latest acquisition of Tenor Digital and how it positions the company at the forefront of the rapidly growing private credit sector. From explaining the origins of modern AI models to exploring their transformative potential in fund administration, Alex offers a comprehensive and practical look at how technology is reshaping knowledge work across the industry. They discuss: • How Juniper Square's acquisition of Tenor Digital expands its capabilities in private credit • The foundational breakthroughs that led to today's AI technologies and their relevance to private markets • Why “prompt engineering” and “validation” are critical to AI accuracy and application • The distinction between knowledge work and human work—and what each means for the future of GPs • How AI agents will evolve to enhance fund administration, investor relations, and portfolio management Links: Alex on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexrob22/ Brandon on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/bsedloff/ Juniper Square - https://www.junipersquare.com/ Topics: (00:00:00) - Intro (00:02:03) - Overview of Juniper Square (00:03:38) - Acquisition announcement and strategic importance (00:04:00) - The rise of private credit (00:07:41) - Understanding AI and its foundations (00:15:39) - The role of prompt engineering (00:18:22) - Bridging the gap between AI and customer needs (00:29:18) - AI's transformative impact on knowledge work (00:38:02) - Future of knowledge work and AI (00:48:07) - The role of AI agents in private markets (00:56:21) - Adapting to AI in the workplace (01:01:53) - Evaluating AI partnerships (01:09:31) - Juniper Square's approach to AI integration (01:13:15) - Conclusion and final thoughts

In this episode of the Private Markets Outlook series, we sit down with Scott Giardina, Managing Director and Head of Trading for Future Standard's Global Credit Team, for an in-depth look at the current state of private credit.Scott joins Research team members Alan Flannigan and Andrew Korz to discuss the benefit of specialization in private credit, why lender protections matter more than ever and what it means for investors.The Private Markets Outlook podcast series from Future Standard features portfolio managers from across our firm, each bringing unique perspectives on private equity, private credit and real estate. Subscribe and stay tuned for more.Follow the value, not the herd: The new private markets imperative Q4 U.S. economic outlook: Artificial intelligence, real economic impact U.S. exceptionalism at a crossroadsHave a question for our experts? Text us for a chance to have your questions answered on the next episode.To watch the video version, go to https://www.youtube.com/@futurestandard_fs For more research insights go to https://futurestandard.com/insights

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity's most powerful trading experience yet: https://www.fidelity.com/trading/trading-platforms?immid=100734&imm_pid=428905629&imm_aid=a&dfid=&buf=99999999 Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC Dan Nathan & Guy Adami break down the top market headlines and bring you stock market trade ideas for Monday, October 20th. -- Learn more about FactSet: https://www.factset.com/lp/mrkt-callMRKT Call is brought to you by our presenting sponsors CME Group, FactSet, SoFi & MoneyLionSign up for our emailsFollow us on Twitter @MRKTCallFollow @GuyAdami on TwitterFollow @CarterBWorth on TwitterFollow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMediaLike us on Facebook @RiskReversalWatch all of our videos on YouTube Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto News: Gold is starting to pullback and there could be rotation of liquidity to Bitcoin and crypto soon. Richest YouTube MrBeast's firm files Trademark with Crypto Ambitions.Brought to you by

How did the week's AI dealmaking affect stocks? And why did President Trump's comments on weight-loss drugs hurt pharma shares? Plus, how did the big six U.S. banks finish out the week after strong quarterly reports? Host Francesca Fontana discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How did the week's AI dealmaking affect stocks? And why did President Trump's comments on weight-loss drugs hurt pharma shares? Plus, how did the big six U.S. banks finish out the week after strong quarterly reports? Host Francesca Fontana discusses the biggest stock moves of the week and the news that drove them. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Yascha Mounk and Quico Toro explore why we fall for them—and how to protect ourselves. Quico Toro is a contributing editor at Persuasion, the Director of Climate Repair at the Anthropocene Institute, and writes the Substack One Percent Brighter. He is the author, with Moisés Naím, of Charlatans: How Grifters, Swindlers, and Hucksters Bamboozle the Media, the Markets, and the Masses. In this week's conversation, Yascha Mounk and Quico Toro explore whether fraudsters are motivated by self-deception or the desire to scam, how the internet and our society enable charlatans, and how to resist them.  If you have not yet signed up for our podcast, please do so now by following ⁠this link on your phone⁠. Email: leonora.barclay@persuasion.community Podcast production by Jack Shields and Leonora Barclay. Connect with us! ⁠Spotify⁠ | ⁠Apple⁠ | ⁠Google⁠ X: ⁠@Yascha_Mounk⁠ & ⁠@JoinPersuasion⁠ YouTube: ⁠Yascha Mounk⁠, ⁠Persuasion Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Diving into the bitcoin markets with JAN3 CEO Samson Mow. In today's Markets Outlook, JAN3 CEO Samson Mow joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie and Andy Baehr to explain why bitcoin's flat price and low volatility is a potential sign of maturity and why his $1 million prediction is still in play. Plus, he dives into the threat of bitcoin "bifurcation," the surge of Korean retail money propping up Ethereum, and the likelihood of nation-state BTC adoption in 2026 amid global de-dollarization trends. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Bridge simplifies global money movement. As the leading stablecoin issuance and orchestration platform, Bridge abstracts away blockchain complexity so businesses can seamlessly move between fiat and stablecoins. From payroll providers and remittance companies to neobanks and treasury teams, Bridge powers payments, savings, and stablecoin issuance for thousands – like Shopify, Metamask, Remitly, and more. URL: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://hubs.ly/Q03KGbRK0⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -OwlTing (Nasdaq: OWLS) is building invisible rails for global payments. With OwlPay, businesses and users can bridge fiat and stablecoins, send money instantly across borders, and access stablecoin checkout at lower costs. Licensed worldwide, OwlTing delivers secure, compliant, and regulated infrastructure for the digital economy. Learn more at ⁠⁠http://owlting.com/⁠⁠.#cryptocurrency #digitalfinance #finance #bitcoin #crypto - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

If you've ever felt like the stock market was a boys' club you weren't invited to, this episode is about to change that. Diana Perkins — CPA, investor, and founder of Trading with Diana — joins Shari to break down why trading isn't as intimidating as it looks, how women's natural strengths give them an investing edge, and the simple, practical steps you can take to start building wealth through the markets. They get real about the psychology of trading, emotional decision-making, and why confidence matters more than capital. You'll learn how to separate feelings from strategy, avoid the most common (and costly) beginner mistakes, and why financial literacy is one of the most powerful forms of self-care. You'll walk away with: A clear understanding of what trading actually is — and why it's not just for Wall Street pros. The truth about how much money (and time) you really need to get started. Practical strategies to manage risk, control emotions, and trade with confidence. A fresh perspective on how trading income can transform your financial independence — and your career options. Be sure to like and follow the show on your favorite podcast app! Keep the conversation going on Instagram @everyonestalkinmoney Thank you to our sponsors! Policygenius - Head to policygenius.com to compare free life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oct 17, 2025 – With equity markets brushing new highs but warning signs flashing in credit spreads, how should discerning investors position themselves? Amid renewed US-China trade tensions and volatile headlines, Chris Puplava highlights...

Crypto News: Ripple Labs leads $1 billion raise for new XRP treasury. Li Lin, the founder of Huobi and chairman of Hong Kong-based Avenir Capital, is spearheading a new $1 billion ethereum trust. Tempo, Stripe's new blockchain, hits $5B valuation in $500M funding round.Brought to you by

Your daily news in under three minutes. At Al Jazeera Podcasts, we want to hear from you, our listeners. So, please head to https://www.aljazeera.com/survey and tell us your thoughts about this show and other Al Jazeera podcasts. It only takes a few minutes! Connect with us: @AJEPodcasts on X, Instagram, Facebook, and YouTube

Diving into the bitcoin markets with JAN3 CEO Samson Mow. In today's Markets Outlook, JAN3 CEO Samson Mow joins CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie and Andy Baehr to explain why bitcoin's flat price and low volatility is a potential sign of maturity and why his $1 million prediction is still in play. Plus, he dives into the threat of bitcoin "bifurcation," the surge of Korean retail money propping up Ethereum, and the likelihood of nation-state BTC adoption in 2026 amid global de-dollarization trends. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Bridge simplifies global money movement. As the leading stablecoin issuance and orchestration platform, Bridge abstracts away blockchain complexity so businesses can seamlessly move between fiat and stablecoins. From payroll providers and remittance companies to neobanks and treasury teams, Bridge powers payments, savings, and stablecoin issuance for thousands – like Shopify, Metamask, Remitly, and more. URL: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://hubs.ly/Q03KGbRK0⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -OwlTing (Nasdaq: OWLS) is building invisible rails for global payments. With OwlPay, businesses and users can bridge fiat and stablecoins, send money instantly across borders, and access stablecoin checkout at lower costs. Licensed worldwide, OwlTing delivers secure, compliant, and regulated infrastructure for the digital economy. Learn more at ⁠⁠http://owlting.com/⁠⁠.#cryptocurrency #digitalfinance #finance #bitcoin #crypto - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpacks how China's announced rare earth export controls and signals of sweeping U.S. tariffs could impact global supply chains, markets and economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Today I'll talk about a development keeping markets and investors on alert: a re-escalation of U.S. China trade tensions. It's Friday, October 17th at 10am in New York. Since April, the U.S. and China have been in what we've been calling a very delicate detente. Remember, President Trump paused the additional reciprocal tariffs after Liberation Day. Since then, we've been consistently skeptical that the pause was durable enough to actually allow the U.S. and China to come up with a full-fledged trade agreement. But now we're equally as skeptical that the current escalation will lead to a material disruption in the bilateral relationship. So, what happened last week? China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, which are really critical for manufacturing everything from electric vehicles to defense equipment and advanced electronics. So, in response, the Trump administration on Friday announced a proposed 100 percent tariff, said to go into effect November 1st across all Chinese exports to the U.S. That date matters because that's around the same time that Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. When we think about this most recent escalation, it's pretty significant because China accounts for about 70 percent of global rare earth mining, and 90 percent of processing and refining. A lot of countries around the world – the U.S. Japan, Korea, and Germany – all rely heavily on these imports from China. And so potential new export controls mean that every economy may have to start negotiating bilaterally with China to secure supplies, which raises the risk of supply chain disruption across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Looking ahead, we're thinking about four potential scenarios for how the current U.S.-China trade tensions could play out. The most likely outcome, which is our base case, is a return to the recent status quo following a period of rhetorical escalation and likely a reset of expectations heading into this APEC meeting. That's because we think both the U.S. and China would prefer to maintain the existing equilibrium to an abrupt supply chain decoupling. That equilibrium is effectively chips for rare earths. So, the U.S. receives China's rare earths, and then in return the U.S. exports some of its chips to China. But that equilibrium doesn't necessarily mean that the temporary implementation of trade barriers like higher tariffs or more export controls are off the table. The broader trajectory we think will continue to point toward competitive confrontation, which is a bipartisan strategy that encompasses both these traditional trade tactics as well as unilateral domestic investment – either vis-a-vis direct federal spending, or the government taking more stakes in companies involved in these critical industries. So, think things like the IRA, the CHIPS Act, and other bipartisan pieces of legislation. So, in the near and medium term, expect to see these trade barriers persisting and a bipartisan push toward U.S. industrial policy, as the U.S. attempts to undergo selective de-risking from China. Our base case scenario anticipates further short-term tensions, but ultimately a limited agreement that avoids deep structural changes. We've also thought through some alternate scenarios. So, in one downside case, you could see temporary escalation past November 1st. Both sides could fully implement their proposed policies, but after doing so, come back to the status quo once the economic costs become apparent. A more severe downside scenario involves durable escalation. So, in this case, we would see both countries maintain trade barriers for an extended period. That outcome would see both the U.S. and China decide to change calculus on that equilibrium, so that no longer holds. And in that case, we could see a push toward decoupling and a significant strain on supply chains. Finally, our last scenario reflects a quick de-escalation in which heightened rhetoric actually acts as a catalyst for renewed negotiations and a potential framework agreement that could result in some tariffs, but most likely at lower levels than initially proposed. So, what does this all mean? In the base case, our economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to below 4.5 percent in the second half of 2025, with exports supported by robust non-U.S. shipments. Our equity strategists in this outcome see the volatility actually providing a dip buying opportunity, given that they see a rolling recovery that began earlier this year. However, a more durable escalation could possibly prolong China's deflation and necessitate further policy adjustments. Similarly, that outcome could negate the early cycle rolling recovery thesis here in the U.S. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Markets just saw a $19B wipeout in a single day. In this week's Weekly Rollup, we break down the Friday Flash Crash, what really caused it, and whether it signals the end of the cycle or just a reset. We also cover Binance's leaked listing fees, a major Chinese tech company quietly building on Ethereum, and reports that the U.S. may add $14B in Bitcoin to its strategic reserve. Plus, Democrats renew their push against DeFi, and Larry Fink gears up for BlackRock's next big crypto play. ------

Unpacking the recent market meltdown with Round13 Capital Managing Partner and CIO, and Rails Co-Founder and CEO, Satraj Bambra. In today's Markets Outlook, Round13 Capital Managing Partner and CIO, and Rails Co-Founder and CEO, Satraj Bambra unpacks the $19 billion liquidation cascade that rocked the crypto markets recently. Plus, he shares the major decision his fund made in response: going all-cash—a choice that runs counter to many Q4 bullish forecasts. - Break the cycle of exploitation. Break down the barriers to truth. Break into the next generation of privacy. Break Free. Free to scroll without being monetized. Free from censorship. Freedom without fear. We deserve more when it comes to privacy. Experience the next generation of blockchain that is private and inclusive by design. Break free with Midnight, visit midnight.network/break-free - Bridge simplifies global money movement. As the leading stablecoin issuance and orchestration platform, Bridge abstracts away blockchain complexity so businesses can seamlessly move between fiat and stablecoins. From payroll providers and remittance companies to neobanks and treasury teams, Bridge powers payments, savings, and stablecoin issuance for thousands – like Shopify, Metamask, Remitly, and more. URL: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://hubs.ly/Q03KGbRK0⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -OwlTing (Nasdaq: OWLS) is building invisible rails for global payments. With OwlPay, businesses and users can bridge fiat and stablecoins, send money instantly across borders, and access stablecoin checkout at lower costs. Licensed worldwide, OwlTing delivers secure, compliant, and regulated infrastructure for the digital economy. Learn more at ⁠http://owlting.com/⁠.#cryptocurrency #digitalfinance #finance #bitcoin #crypto - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Oct 17, 2025 – What happens when America's $37 trillion debt collides with China's stranglehold on critical materials? In this urgent conversation, Jim Puplava interviews energy expert Robert Bryce about two existential threats facing the United States...

Oct 17, 2025 – Is the world ready for China's long game? In The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order, Rush Doshi reveals how China has quietly and methodically plotted to supplant U.S. global leadership once...

In this episode, I dive into one of the most perplexing financial phenomena of 2025 — the S&P 500's explosive rally to new all-time highs. Despite no rate cuts, no fiscal stimulus, and no major breakthroughs, the market has surged more than expected — a “four sigma event” that's occurred only 0.4% of the time in the past 35 years. We break down how psychology, not fundamentals, is fueling this run — a blend of greed, fear, and herd mentality that could set the stage for a painful day of reckoning when reality hits. Key Takeaways: The S&P 500's rally is a four standard deviation event — statistically almost impossible. Markets are being driven by emotion, not fundamentals, as fear turns into unchecked greed. Without fiscal stimulus or Fed cuts, this could be a short-lived rally before a major correction. Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/ 

Artificial intelligence is one of the most powerful forces reshaping the global economy, technology, and investing. But understanding AI requires looking at the full story — where it began, how it is unfolding, and where it is headed next.With recent headlines in OpenAI from its $100bn Nvidia investment to its release of Sora, this special in-depth episode of The Bid brings together highlights from across our conversations with BlackRock experts to trace the arc of AI's evolution: its origins, today's massive infrastructure build-out, the unprecedented power demand it creates, its adoption across industries, its geopolitical stakes, and what lies ahead for investors.Key themes:The history and milestones that shaped AI as an investment themeThe massive infrastructure and capital fueling the AI build-outWhy AI's energy demands could reshape global power consumptionHow AI adoption is boosting productivity and changing workAI as a geopolitical competition between nationsWhat the exponential future of AI may bring for marketsKey moments in this episode:00:00 Introduction to a reflection on AI00:20 The Evolution of AI: From Theory to Practice00:56 The Investment Landscape of AI01:45 Historical Milestones in AI05:08 The Build-Out Phase of AI Infrastructure07:25 Energy Demands of AI09:43 Adoption and Transformation of AI10:57 AI in Geopolitical Competition12:09 The Future of AI: Layers of Opportunity16:16 Conclusion and Investor InsightsCheck out this playlist to learn more about AI investing: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/1rt6kLl0fzg9D7puEkAupq

Michael Reinking, Senior Market Strategist at the NYSE, recaps a volatile week as China's new export controls and President Trump's tariff threats triggered the biggest U.S. selloff since April. Markets and crypto plunged before rebounding on softer rhetoric from Washington and strong bank earnings kicking off the season. Fed Chair Powell's signal of further rate cuts fueled a rally in cyclicals and financials. Regional banks later slid on fresh credit concerns. Reinking highlights China's upcoming economic data, earnings acceleration, and ongoing shutdown talks as next week's key drivers.

With Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference underway, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets joins Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur to discuss private credit, M&A activity and AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan StanleyVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Andrew Sheets: Today, as we're hosting the Morgan Stanley European Leveraged Finance Conference, a discussion of three of the biggest topics on the minds of credit investors worldwide.It's Thursday, October 16th at 4pm in London.Vishy, it's so great to catch up with you here in London. I know you've been running around the world, quite literally, talking to investors about some of the biggest debates in credit – and that's exactly what we wanted to talk. We're here at Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference. We're talking with investors about the biggest debates, the biggest developments in credit markets, and there are really kind of three topics that stand out.There's what's going on with private credit? What's going on with the merger and acquisition, the M&A cycle? And how are we going to fund all of this AI infrastructure?And so maybe I'll throw the first question to you. We hear a lot about private credit, and so maybe just for the listener who's looking at a lot of different things. First, how do you define it? What are we really talking about when we're talking about private credit?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Andrew, when we talk about private credit, the most common understanding of private credit is lending by non-banks to small and medium sized companies. And we probably will discuss a bit later that this definition is actually expanding much beyond this narrow definition. So, when you think about private credit and spend time understanding what is the credit in private credit, what it boils down to is on average, on a leveraged basis, the credit in private credit is comparable to, say CCC to B - on a coverage basis to the public markets.So, the credits in the private credit market are weaker. But on the other hand, the quality of covenants in these deals is significantly better compared to the public credit markets. So, that's the credit in private credit.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, with that in mind then, what is the concern in this market? Or conversely, where do people see the opportunity?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the concern in this market comes from the opaqueness in these deals. Many of these private credit borrowers are not public filers. So not much is well known about what the underlying details are. But in a sense, a good part of the public markets, whether it's in high yield bonds or in the public, broadly syndicated leveraged loans are also not public filers. So, there is information asymmetry in those markets as well.So, the issue is not the opaqueness of private markets, but opaqueness in credit in general. But that said, when you look at the metrics of leverage, coverage, cash on balance sheet…Andrew Sheets: Because we can get some kind of high-level sense of what is in these portfolios...Vishy Tirupattur: Yeah. And we look at all those metrics, and we look at a wide range of metrics. We don't get to the conclusion that we are at a precipice of some systemic risk exposure in credit. On the other hand, there are idiosyncratic issues. And these idiosyncratic issues have always been there and will remain there. And we would expect that the default rates are sticky around these levels, which are slightly above the long-term average levels, and we expect that to remain.Andrew Sheets: So, you may see more dispersion within these portfolios. These are weaker, more cyclical, more levered companies. But overall, this is not something that we think at the moment is going to interrupt the credit cycle or the broader markets dynamic.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. That is exactly where we come down to.So, Andrew, let me throw another question back at you. There's a lot of talk of growing M&A, growing LBO activity. And that could potentially lead to some challenges on the credit front. How do you look at it?Andrew Sheets: So, I'd like to actually build upon your answer from private credit, right? Because I think a lot of the questions that we're getting from investors are around this question of how far along in this always, kind of, cyclical process; ebb and flow of lending aggressiveness are we? And, you know, this is a cycle that goes back a hundred years – of lenders becoming more conservative and tighter with lending. And then as times get good, they become somewhat looser. And initially that's fine. And then eventually something, something happens.And so, I think we've seen the development of new markets like private credit that have opened up new lending opportunities and then also new questions. And I think we've also seen this question come up around M&A and corporate activity.And as we start to see headlines of very large leveraged buyouts or LBOs, as we start to see more merger and acquisition – M&A – activity coming back; something we've at Morgan Stanley been believers in. Are we really starting to see the things that we saw in the year 2000, or in the year 2007, when you saw very active capital markets actually coinciding with kind of near the peak of equity markets near the top of major market cycles.And in short, we do not think we're there yet. If we look at the actual volumes that we're seeing, we're actually a little bit below average in terms of corporate activity. There's really been a dearth of corporate activity after COVID. We're still catching up. Secondly, the big transactions that we're seeing are still more conservatively structured, which isn't usually what you see right at the end. And so, I think between these two things with still a lot of supportive factors for more corporate activity, we think we have further to go.Vishy Tirupattur: On that point, Andrew, I think if you look at the LBOs that are happening today versus the LBOs that happened in the 2007 era, the equity contribution is dramatically different. You know, equity to debt, these LBOs that are happening today [are] of a substantially higher amount of equity contribution compared to the LBOs we saw pre-Financial Crisis…Andrew Sheets: That's such a great point. And the listener may not know this, but Vishy and I were working together at Morgan Stanley prior to the Financial Crisis, and we were working in credit research when a lot of these LBOs were happening, and…Vishy Tirupattur: And I used to be tall and good looking.Andrew Sheets: (laughs) And they were just very different. We're still not there. If you go back and pull the numbers, you're looking at transactions still that are far more conservative than what we saw then. So, you know, this activity is cyclical, and I think we do have to watch deregulation, right? You saw a lot of regulations come in after the Financial Crisis that led to more conservative lending. If those regulations get rolled back, we could really move back towards more aggressive lending. But we haven't quite seen that yet.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely not.Andrew Sheets: And Vishy, maybe the third question that comes up a lot. We've covered private credit, which is very topical. We've covered kind of corporate aggressiveness. But maybe the icing on the cake. The biggest question is AI – and is AI spending?And it just feels like every day you come into the office and there's another headline on CNBC or Bloomberg about another mega AI funding deal. And the question is, okay, where's all that money going to come from?And maybe some of it comes from these companies themselves. They're very profitable, but credit might have to fill in some of the gaps. And you and some of our colleagues have done a lot of work on this. Where do you think kind of the lending story and the borrowing story fits into this broader AI theme?Vishy Tirupattur: Our estimate of simply data center related CapEx requirements are close to $3 trillion. You add the power required for the data centers and add another $300-400 billion. So, a lot of this CapEx will come from – roughly about half might come from the operating cash flows of the hyperscalers. But the rest, so [$]1.5 trillion plus, has to come through various channels of credit.So, unsecured corporate credit, we think will play a fairly small role in this. Of that [$]1.5 trillion plus, maybe [$]200 billion to come from unsecured credit issuance by these hyperscalers, and perhaps some of the securitized markets, such as ABS and CMBS that rely on stabilized cash flows may be another 1[$]50 billion. But a different version of private credit, what we will call ABF or asset based finance, will play a very big role. So north of [$]800 billion we think will come from that kind of a private credit version of investment grade, or a private credit markets developing. So, this market is very much in the developmental mode.So, one way or the other, for AI to go from where it is today to substantially improving productivity and the earnings of companies that has to go through CapEx; and that CapEx needs to go through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: And I think that is so fascinating because, right Vishy, so much of the spending is still ahead of us. It hasn't even really started, if you look at the numbers.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. We are in the early stages of this CapEx cycle. We should expect to see a lot more CapEx and that CapEx train has to run through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, there's obviously a lot of history in financial markets of larger CapEx booms, and some of them work out well, and some of them don't. I mean, if you are trying to think about some of the dynamics of this funding for AI and data centers more broadly versus some of these other CapEx cycles that investors might be familiar with. Are there some similar dynamics and some key differences that you try to keep in mind?Vishy Tirupattur: So, in terms of similarities, you know, they're big numbers, whichever way you cut it, these numbers are going to be big dollar numbers.But there are substantial differences between the most recent CapEx boom that we saw towards the end of the late 90s, early 2000s; we saw a massive telecom boom, telecom related CapEx. The big difference is that spending was done by – predominantly by companies that had put debt on their balance sheet. They were already very leveraged. They were just barely investment grade or some below investment grade companies with not much cash on their balance sheet.And you contrast that with today's world, much of this is being done by highly rated companies; the hyperscalers or between, you know, A+ to AAA rated companies, with a lot of cash on their balance sheets and with very little outstanding debt on their part.On top of that, the kind of channels that exist today, you know, data center, ABS and CMBS, asset-based finance, joint venture kind of financing. All of these channels were simply not available back then. And the fact that they all are available today means that this risk of CapEx is actually much more widely distributed.So that makes me feel a lot better about the evolution of this CapEx cycle compared to the most recent one we saw.Andrew Sheets: Private credit, a rise in M&A and a very active funding market for AI. Three big topics that are defining the credit debate today. Vishy, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, always fun to hang with youAndrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us review wherever you listen and tell a friend or colleague about us today.