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This week we talk about trade wars, TACO theory, and Chinese imports.We also discuss negotiation, protectionism, and threat spirals.Recommended Book: More Than Words by John WarnerTranscriptIn January of 2018, then first-term US President Trump announced a slew of tariffs and trade barriers against several countries, including Canada, Mexico, and those in the European Union.The most significant of these new barriers and tariffs were enacted against China, though, as Trump had long claimed that China, the US's most important trade partner by many measures, was taking advantage of the US market; a claim that economists tepidly backed, as while some of the specifics, like those related to intellectual property theft on the part of China, were pretty overt, the Chinese government fairly brazenly gobbling up IP and technology from US companies that do business in the country before hobbling those US interests in China and handing that IP and technology off to their own, China-born copies, claims about a trade deficit were less clear-cut—most of those sorts of claims seemed to be the result of a misunderstanding about how international trade works.That said, Trump had made a protectionist stance part of his platform, so he kicked off his administration by imposing a package of targeted tariffs against specific product categories from China, including things like solar panels and washing machines. Those were followed by more tariffs on steel and aluminum—from a lot of countries, not just China—and this implementation of trade barriers between the US and long-time trade partners, which had mostly enjoyed barrier-free trade up till that point, kicked off a trade war, with the Trump administration announcing, out of nowhere, new tariffs or limitations, and the country on the pointy end of that new declaration announcing their own counter, usually something the US sells to their country, while in the background, both countries tried to negotiate new trade terms on the down-low.There was a lot of tit-for-tatting in those first couple years of the first Trump administration, and they led to a lot of negotiations between the US government and these foreign governments, which in turn led to the lifting of many such barriers, though the weaponization of barriers continued, with the administration, for instance, announcing a tariff on all imports from Mexico until the Mexican government was able to halt all illegal immigration coming into the US; negotiation ended that threat, too, but this early salvo upset a lot of the US's long-time allies, while also making it clear that Trump intended to open negotiations with these sorts of threats, whenever possible—which had the knock-on effect of everyone taking the threats pretty seriously, as they were often incredibly dangerous to specific industries, while also taking them less seriously because it was obvious they were intended to be a negotiating tactic.When Trump left office, a bunch of international relationships had been scarred by this approach to trade deals, and when Biden replaced him, he dropped most of the new tariffs against long-time allies, but kept most of the China tariffs in place, especially those related to green technologies like electric vehicles and semiconductors, the local-made versions of which were becoming a big focus for the Biden administration. The administration then went on to expand upon those tariffs, against China, in some cases.What I'd like to talk about today is how this approach to trade protectionism and negotiation has ballooned under the second Trump administration, and what a new threat against China by Trump might mean for how the relationship between these two countries evolves, moving forward.—Trump's second administration opened with an executive order that declared a national emergency, claiming that the Chinese were trafficking drugs, especially synthetic opioids like fentanyl, into the US, and that this allowed criminals to profit from destroying the lives of US citizens.This declaration allowed him to unleash a flurry of tariffs against China, first imposing 10% on all Chinese imports, then increasing that to 20% in March of 2025.China retaliated, imposing tariffs of 15% on mostly US energy products, like coal and natural gas, and on some types of agricultural machines, while also engaging in some legal pressure against US companies, like Google. They followed this up with tariffs against meat and dairy products, and suspended US lumber import rights, and disallowed three US firms from selling soybeans to China.The US reciprocated, and China reciprocated back. There was a period of spiraling broad tariffs and import bans in the mid-2025 between the US and China, which led to an aggregate baseline tariff on Chinese imports of 104%, which was followed with an aggregate Chinese baseline tariff against US goods of 84%. The US then upped theirs to 145%, and China raised theirs to 125%.Again, vital to understanding this spiral is that the Trump administration made pretty clear that they were doing this mostly as a negotiating tactic. There were claims that they could solve the US deficit by raising tariffs so high that the funds from those tariffs would pay off the country's debt, but that's generally not considered to be realistic. Instead, the consensus view is that Trump likes to play negotiating hardball, likes to step into negotiations with the upper-hand, being able to say, give me what I want and I'll reduce the pain you're experiencing, basically, and this play against China was another attempt to make that kind of advantage stick.China, for its part, seemed like it was done with the posturing at that point, though: it announced, after its retaliatory tariffs reached 125%, that it would simply ignore all further increases on the US government's side, because the whole thing is just kind of a joke and it's beneath them to keep playing this game.Not long after that, Trump announced that the tariffs against China would come down substantially, but not to zero; Trump said this was decided after discussions with China, and Chinese officials said they hadn't been in contact with the Trump administration about any of this—which is something that seems to happen quite a bit with the Trump administration.During this period of spiraling trade barriers, China was able to establish better and more open trade agreements with other nations in Southeast Asia, including South Korea and Japan. China also reduced it US Treasury holdings, reducing its exposure to the US economy at a moment in which the US government was betting big on policy that many economists considered to be ham-handed at best, completely nonsensical, delusional, and harmful at worst.During that spiral, before things cooled off, China also began applying protections on locally sourced and refined rare earths, which are a category of mineral that are vital for modern electronics and things like solar panels, batteries, semiconductors, and electric vehicles.China makes and owns the rights to the vast majority of the current global supply of these materials, mining about 70% of them and controlling about 90% of global processing. And cutting them off, or even truncating their flow, is considered to be a huge strategic threat. The US has been slowly investing in alternative supplies for such things, but many of them are difficult or expensive to produce in the proper volume, and it'll likely be a decade or more before those alternative sources can be properly exploited, replacing the volume currently imported from China.Back in June, China granted permits to US businesses that would be allowed to import rare earths, but that supply remained tenuous—a bit of a counter to Trump's ongoing tariff threats that could seemingly arise out of nowhere, messing up everyone's plans. The Chinese seemed to want to leverage this supply in the same way, and keeping things limited while issuing a few permits meant the flow could kind of continue, but could also be slowed or cut off, again, at a moment's notice.In early October, the Chinese government announced new curbs on the export of rare earths and related technologies, just three weeks before a scheduled meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. These new curbs further limited what could be imported to the US, even if there were intermediary nations involved, and also tightened their grip on anything related to mining, smelting, recycling, and producing products, like powerful magnets, from such materials.It's worth mentioning here, too, that these sorts of materials are increasingly vital for the production of high-tech military goods. If the US were to lose access to sufficient volumes of them, the US military would have a very hard time making missiles, replacing satellite components, building tanks and drones—it would give China a significant advantage, probably for years, in terms of upgrading and maintaining their military hardware.Despite that, and despite the US government's claims that it intended to replace Chinese sources of these materials, theoretically limiting Chinese leverage in these upcoming talks, progress in that department has been minimal, so far; about a billion dollars worth of investment in rare earths supply chains were announced over the past year or so, but further investment is considered to be unlikely in the near-future, and it'll be a while before these investments will pay off, if they ever do.Shortly after that announcement by the Chinese, President Trump threatened to enforce a new 100% tariff on Chinese imports, beginning on November 1, or potentially even sooner, raising tariff levels to just shy of what they were back in April of 2025, at the peak of the US-China trade protectionism threat-spiral.He also said he didn't see any reason to meet with Xi if they were going to limit rare earths in this way, but later clarified that the meeting hadn't been cancelled, and said that he set the implementation date for that new threatened tariff rate to Nov 1 because that would give the Chinese the opportunity to back down on their new trade barriers before they chatted.Global markets, which are sometimes a good barometer for how informed folks think these sorts of negotiations will play out, have been relatively calm about all this, though there have been some significant tumbles in the US market, including a recent drop of about 2.7% for the S&P 500, marking the worst day for the US market since April, back when the tariff threats last reached this kind of peak.One stance that's become popular in trading circles over the past year is the so-called TACO theory, which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out; the idea being that Trump is never really serious about any of these threats, he just likes to talk a big game and then hopes the other side will feel threatened enough to give him what he wants during negotiations—but if they don't, he steps back from all his big talk and quietly gives in to the other side, especially if they have leverage.Some analysts are assuming that's what's happening now, as evidenced by Trump's own statements about giving China the chance to deescalate—giving them specific instructions for how to let things calm down, rather than making these threats and suggesting they're permanent, or not giving the other side any rationale for why it's happening.There's a chance, though, that there's some truth to the opposing theory that this is part of a larger plan by the Trump administration to create a new trade war that's meant to dominate headlines and concerns for a while, maybe as far into the future as next year's elections, all of which is meant to conceal other efforts by the administration, like the military occupancy of American cities and the administration's vehement objection to releasing the so-called Epstein files, which allegedly contain many references to Trump and other powerful people within his administration, which in turn would further connect him to a renowned pedophile.The Republican-controlled congress has made a massive effort to keep those files from being released, and Trump has become well-known for saying and doing headline-grabbing things whenever something inconvenient for him starts bubbling up in the news.So while there's a chance this back-and-forth will end just before those upcoming trade talks, both sides taking their fingers off the trigger, as it were, in order to make a deal, there's also a chance elements of this will be spun into a larger narrative, a war of sorts meant to dominate headlines and conceal other things that the administration would prefer to keep off the front page.Show Noteshttps://apnews.com/article/rare-earths-china-united-states-trade-supply-chain-de92222cda02dc85064c697911c6dea7https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-timeline-trade-war-trump-canada-mexico-china-a9d714eea677488ef9397547d838dbd0https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3318694/china-cuts-us-treasury-holdings-third-month-amid-trade-war-debt-ceiling-fearshttps://apnews.com/article/china-us-trump-tariff-threat-trade-talks-cc4bd30c3b1bcf2eb2676bc0e66efba0https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-federal-reserve-powell-88358f4955fd86ef3c86f5e8e089e775https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-tariffs-china-ai-642b042b1ebe1d1930eb93bf51943e3fhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-china-cc47e258cfc6336dfddcc20fa67a3642https://apnews.com/article/china-earths-exports-trump-dad99d532f858f04d750d0b8c50e5ed6https://time.com/7292207/us-china-trade-war-trump-tariffs-timeline/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_warhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_first_Trump_administrationhttps://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-charthttps://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trumps-fresh-tariff-assault-threatens-chinas-fragile-economy-d0b3a00dhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn828kg8rmzo This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

The Israeli government approved the US-brokered deal for a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza, the US Treasury has intervened in Argentina's currency market, and Danish offshore wind developer Ørsted plans to cut about a quarter of its workforce. Plus, the FT's Katie Martin explains why the good vibes in the markets are really just investors running on fumes. Mentioned in this podcast:Israeli government approves Gaza ceasefire deal and hostage releaseØrsted to cut quarter of workforce after US setbacksUS Treasury intervenes in Argentina's currency marketBrace for a market melt-upToday's FT News Briefing was produced by Josh Gabert-Doyon, Sonja Hutson, and Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from Michael Lello and David da Silva. The FT's acting co-head of audio is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

HEADLINE: Latin American Political Volatility and US Engagement GUEST NAME: Evan Ellis SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Evan Ellis about political instability across Latin America. In Argentina, peso volatility reflects investor doubts about President Milei's survival following election losses and corruption scandals. Despite strong economic fundamentals (poverty reduced to 32%, 3% growth), the US Treasury provided unprecedented support with a $20 billion swap agreement. In Venezuela, Maduro's illegitimate regime lost overwhelmingly to Edmundo Gonzalez in July 2024. The US deployed eight ships and considers limited strikes against the "Cartel de los Soles" leadership. Brazil's Lula might offer Maduro asylum to resolve the crisis while opposing US pressure. Colombia faces chaos under President Petro, whose failed "total peace" policies increased violence. After Petro urged US soldiers to disobey orders, America pulled his diplomatic visa, damaging security cooperation. Mexico's President Sheinbaum enjoys 78% popularity and achieved a 20% homicide reduction. The critical priority remains USMCA renegotiation, preventing Chinese companies from using Mexico as a US market pass-through. 1930 BOLIVAR IN CARACAS

HEADLINE: Latin American Political Volatility and US Engagement GUEST NAME: Evan Ellis SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Evan Ellis about political instability across Latin America. In Argentina, peso volatility reflects investor doubts about President Milei's survival following election losses and corruption scandals. Despite strong economic fundamentals (poverty reduced to 32%, 3% growth), the US Treasury provided unprecedented support with a $20 billion swap agreement. In Venezuela, Maduro's illegitimate regime lost overwhelmingly to Edmundo Gonzalez in July 2024. The US deployed eight ships and considers limited strikes against the "Cartel de los Soles" leadership. Brazil's Lula might offer Maduro asylum to resolve the crisis while opposing US pressure. Colombia faces chaos under President Petro, whose failed "total peace" policies increased violence. After Petro urged US soldiers to disobey orders, America pulled his diplomatic visa, damaging security cooperation. Mexico's President Sheinbaum enjoys 78% popularity and achieved a 20% homicide reduction. The critical priority remains USMCA renegotiation, preventing Chinese companies from using Mexico as a US market pass-through. 1913 ARGENTINA

HEADLINE: Latin American Political Volatility and US Engagement GUEST NAME: Evan Ellis SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Evan Ellis about political instability across Latin America. In Argentina, peso volatility reflects investor doubts about President Milei's survival following election losses and corruption scandals. Despite strong economic fundamentals (poverty reduced to 32%, 3% growth), the US Treasury provided unprecedented support with a $20 billion swap agreement. In Venezuela, Maduro's illegitimate regime lost overwhelmingly to Edmundo Gonzalez in July 2024. The US deployed eight ships and considers limited strikes against the "Cartel de los Soles" leadership. Brazil's Lula might offer Maduro asylum to resolve the crisis while opposing US pressure. Colombia faces chaos under President Petro, whose failed "total peace" policies increased violence. After Petro urged US soldiers to disobey orders, America pulled his diplomatic visa, damaging security cooperation. Mexico's President Sheinbaum enjoys 78% popularity and achieved a 20% homicide reduction. The critical priority remains USMCA renegotiation, preventing Chinese companies from using Mexico as a US market pass-through. 1907 BOGOTA

HEADLINE: Latin American Political Volatility and US Engagement GUEST NAME: Evan Ellis SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Evan Ellis about political instability across Latin America. In Argentina, peso volatility reflects investor doubts about President Milei's survival following election losses and corruption scandals. Despite strong economic fundamentals (poverty reduced to 32%, 3% growth), the US Treasury provided unprecedented support with a $20 billion swap agreement. In Venezuela, Maduro's illegitimate regime lost overwhelmingly to Edmundo Gonzalez in July 2024. The US deployed eight ships and considers limited strikes against the "Cartel de los Soles" leadership. Brazil's Lula might offer Maduro asylum to resolve the crisis while opposing US pressure. Colombia faces chaos under President Petro, whose failed "total peace" policies increased violence. After Petro urged US soldiers to disobey orders, America pulled his diplomatic visa, damaging security cooperation. Mexico's President Sheinbaum enjoys 78% popularity and achieved a 20% homicide reduction. The critical priority remains USMCA renegotiation, preventing Chinese companies from using Mexico as a US market pass-through. 1913 MEXICO CITY

In this week's Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire unpacks how Beijing's physical gold buying and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Basel III-compliant vaults are forcing a US Treasury gold price revaluation.The precious metals expert explains how silver's critical mineral status and limited global supply are fuelling physical stockpiling, pushing the market higher and reinforcing individual investors' move from cash into physical metals.Timestamps00:00 Start02:54: Lawrence asks: Will the Fed bail out or revalue gold?04:16 Fed remains short; China's physical demand drives gold higher13:01 Western paper markets struggle as Chinese bullion demand surges23:18 Rising physical demand forces market to reprice gold and silver32:26 Silver breakout driven by physical demand, underpriced versus currencies Send your questions to Andy here: https://www.speakpipe.com/LFTVSign up for Kinesis on desktop:https://kinesis.money/kinesis-precious-metals/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=lftv_241Download the Kinesis Mobile app - available App Store and Google Play:Apple: https://kms.kinesis.money/signupGoogle: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kinesis.kinesisappAlso, don't forget to check out our social channels where you can stay up to date with all the latest news and developments from the team.X: https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetaryFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinesismoney/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kinesismoney/Telegram: https://t.me/kinesismoneyTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kinesismoneyThe opinions expressed in this video by Andrew Maguire and any guest are solely their own and do not reflect the official policy, position, or views of Kinesis. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or any other type of professional advice.Viewers are encouraged to seek independent financial advice tailored to their individual circumstances before making any decisions related to the gold market or other investments. Kinesis does not accept any responsibility or liability for actions taken based on the content of this video.

Woke up very early...new Senate candidate?...man arrested for trespassing on US Treasury grounds...NJ air base on lockdown...Trump speaking at White House.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Trump is now moving forward with additional tariffs, the other tariffs have proven not to cause inflation like the Fed had said and now Trump is free to move with additional tariffs. Switzerland wants to help with gold refining to help with their tariffs. Gold could be revalued and this will change everything. The [DS] believe they have trapped Trump in a Gov shutdown. This is being driven by Soros and Trump was expected this. He created EO back in Feb for this very reason to drain the swamp quickly. Trump is now setting the stage to shutdown their riots and stop WWIII they are trying to start. Trump has issued a peace plan with Gaza and Israel, it is now up to the [DS] stated funded terrorists. Peace through Strength.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");  https://twitter.com/briefing_block_/status/1972692864007115084 Gold Revaluation Imminent? US Treasury Hoard Tops $1 Trillion For First Time  On the back of a 45% surge in the price of gold this year, the US Treasury's hoard of the barbarous relic has surpassed $1 trillion in value for the first time in history. That is more than 90 times what's stated on the government's balance sheet and is reigniting speculation that Treasury Secretary Bessent could revalue (mark to market) the massive pile of precious metal   Unlike most countries, the US's gold is held by the government directly, rather than the central bank. The Fed instead holds gold certificates corresponding to the value of the Treasury's holdings, and credits the government with dollars in return. That means, as we detailed previously, that an update of the reserves' value in line with today's prices would unleash roughly $990 billion into the Treasury's coffers, dramatically reducing the need to issue quite so many Treasury bonds this year.   Germany, Italy and South Africa all have taken the decision to revalue their reserves in recent decades, as an August note from an economist at the Federal Reserve discussed.   US gold re-marking would have implications for both the Treasury & Fed balance sheets.  US Treasury: assets would rise by the value of the gold re-marking & liabilities would rise by the size of gold certificates issued to the Fed. Federal Reserve: assets would rise by value of gold certificates & liabilities would rise by a crediting of cash in the Treasury cash balance (Exhibit 4). And here is the punchline: the Fed balance sheet impact would look like QE though no open market purchases would be required & Fed liability growth would initially be in TGA.  In other words, the best of all words: a QE-like operation, one which see the Fed quietly funnel almost $700 billion in cash to the Treasury... but without actually doing a thing! On net, a gold re-marking would increase the size of both Treasury & Fed balance sheets + allow for TGA to be used for Treasury priorities (i.e. SWF, pay down debt, fund deficit, etc). Meanwhile, the Fed and Treasury magically conjure some $990 billion out of thing air to be spent on whatever, all because the Treasury agrees that the fair value of gold is... the fair value of gold.  Source: zerohedge.com    Political/Rights

Jon Hartley is a macroeconomist and affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center. Jon returns to the show to discuss the most recent Hoover Monetary Conference, the legacy of John Taylor, why central banks should be using his new measure of r-star, the status of debt management at the US Treasury, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on August 26th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Jon Hartley on X: @Jon_Hartley_ Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:05:56 - John Taylor's Contributions to Economics 00:34:10 - Better Measure of R-Star 00:48:11 - The Government's Debt Management Policy 01:03:39 - Outro

Indian markets are poised for a cautious start with the GIFT Nifty signaling a flat to mildly negative open. The Nifty failed to defend 25,100 on Wednesday amid broad-based weakness. Global cues remain mixed as Wall Street tech stocks face another round of selling and US Treasury yields edge higher, while investors await key economic data. Back home, Glenmark, Lupin and Polycab are among the stocks to watch out for today. We also track movements in oil, gold, plus other macro trends shaping sentiment.  Tune in for all this and more in today's Market Minutes — your morning podcast bringing you the top stories to kickstart your trading day, from stocks in the news to macro trends and global market cues.

Stablecoins are having a moment. In this episode of TRM Talks, Ari sits down with Lesley Chavkin, Head of Global Policy at Paxos and former US Treasury official, to unpack the regulatory evolution shaping the future of digital finance.Lesley shares her journey from building anti-money laundering frameworks in the Middle East, to building at Stellar, to now helping guide Paxos through a pivotal period for stablecoins. Her perspective bridges public service and private sector innovation — making her one of the most thoughtful voices in crypto policy today.The conversation covers the impact of the GENIUS Act and why it marks a turning point for stablecoin issuers, how Paxos' regulatory-first model is resonating with banks and traditional finance, and the differences between regimes like Singapore, the EU's MiCA, and the US. They also dive into what financial institutions need to know about stablecoin infrastructure — from partnerships with PayPal to the buildout of the Global Dollar Network.Lesley offers a candid view on what policymakers often miss about digital assets — and what's still needed to build a safe, trusted, and interoperable future for stablecoins.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are less than a week away from another potential US federal government funding shutdown.But first up today, we can report American August data for new home sales has surprised everyone and jumped a very sharp +20% from July to an annualised rate of 800,000. Few saw this coming. Analysts say sharp discounting and widespread promotional offers are behind the twist because the unsold inventories were mounting. But the gains were widespread especially in the Northeast (+72%). Or it could just be rogue data.And that is because we had not seen any recent trend in rising mortgage application levels to support such a big August jump. In fact last week's application levels were dominated by refinance activity, not new home purchase applications. The discrepancy between the two data releases is a curiosity.There was another well-supported US Treasury bond auction earlier today, this one for their 5-year Note. The median yield came in at 3.65%, little-changed from the 3.67% at the prior equivalent event.Taiwanese industrial production rose in August by +14.4% from a year ago, slowing from an upwardly revised +18.7% gain in the previous month. Taiwan seems to deliver a never-ending stream of double-digit economic advances. It has to be the world's most impressive economy at present.Hong Kong has now shifted to clean-up mode now that Super-Typhoon Ragasa has moved on. There is a lot to restore. It has made landfall in southern China now, where 2 mln people have been evacuated. Ragasa is 2025's largest storm globally and is the largest since the all-time records set by Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, the most powerful tropical cyclones ever recorded. (Hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones are all the same, just named differently based on where they develop from.)Moving on, yesterday's release of the August monthly CPI indicator series in Australia shows that inflations pressures are still alive - and rising. They came in at 3.0%, the most in more than a year. But they have a 1-3% target range so it is technically within that range. The trajectory will worry the RBA all the same. And financial markets have pushed back their expectations of when the RBA will cut rates next.In Indonesia, the combination of an accident at a major copper mine that has closed it completely, and in Peru, a closure over a tough political dispute, has seen copper prices jump overnight.In Russia, that are raising their GST to 22% to pay for their war on Ukraine.In the US, attention is twisting back to lending, liquidity and credit-rating standards as two major financials collapse in a reprise of the GFC sub-prime mistakes. Both Tricolor (a Texas car loan lender) and First Brands (a car parts maker) recently had good credit ratings confirmed.And tariffs, rising joblessness, and weird public policy make the globally important US economy unusually vulnerable at present. So we should note that a US Federal Government shutdown seems on the cards as Trump seems not to care. One of these types of events could trigger something to seriously unnerve financial markets - the US not paying its bills could be it (and is unlikely to be seen as "just another Trump bankruptcy".)The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.15%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at US$3733/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver was lower too and now under US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1.50 at just under US$65/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$69/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc and down -50 bps from yesterday and that is its lowest level since mid-April. Against the Aussie we are also down -50 bps at 88.3 AUc and near a three-year low. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.5, and down another -30 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$113.858 and up +1.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just over +/- 1.1%.Today, all eyes will be on the big Fonterra announcements, which are expected to be very positive. Join us for our coverage that will start with their NZX market releases soon.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the latest data shows American business activity slowing further.But first up this morning we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse event brought little-change to either the ASMP or WMP prices. This is as expected for SMP but 'better' than expected for WMP. In NZD however there was a rise because the Kiwi dollar fell. All eyes are now on tomorrows Fonterra annual report.There were also no surprises in the S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US for September. Both their flash factory and services PMI reading eased slightly, but are not contracting. Growth may be slowing, but selling price inflation is cooling too. The report noted weak new order growth and tariff-taxes were widely cited as the main cause of sharply higher costs, but the weaker demand and stiff competition reportedly limited the scope to raise selling prices,And that is confirmed in the Richmond Fed factory survey which turned down sharply in September. New order levels were weak, cost pressures strong. Services in the same mid-Atlantic area were not very positive either.There was another very large US Treasury 2yr Note auction today, one that saw another pull-back in overall support although the coverage remains strong. The median yield dipped to 3.52% from 3.60% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, Nikkei has found that retail consumer loans are going bad faster, the latest headache for Chinese lenders already plagued by the country's real estate problems. And it comes just when the government aims to stimulate consumption through increased consumer debt backed up by more public borrowings. Nikkei Asia combed through the latest interim disclosures by mainland banks listed in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong and found that nonperforming personal loans rose at a faster pace than those in the real estate sector during the first half of the year.Overnight, Taiwan reported yet another outstandingly good export orders data, again exceeding the expected very good expansion.Super Typhoon Ragasa is expected to hit Hong Kong today, and they are still expecting up to a 5m storm surge (above chart datum). But the eye of the storm is passing slightly south, so it will affect large parts of southern China.India's PMI's were again very expansionary in September for both their services and factory sectors. No signs of cooling in this market.In Europe, their PMIs continue with a modest expansion, even if it is their best in 16 months. But new order levels are only holding, not growing. And the factory sector is now not expanding.And the Swedes delivered a surprise cut to their policy rate, down -25 bps to 1.75%. They cited geopolitical tensions and uncertain US trade policy as the reasons for the move now even though they are experiencing good current growth with inflation up at 3.2% when 2% is their target.In Australia, their PMI's reveal a pullback in September but both sectors are still expanding.Globally, the OECD reported that the global economy was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, but downside risks loom large as higher barriers to trade and geopolitical and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity in many economies. New Zealand doesn't feature in this report, but is sees Australian growth rising, Chinese growth holding at a reasonably good level, and US growth halving to a weak level by 2026.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3781/oz, up another +US$45 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver was little-changed but still up over US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 88.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.7, down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,974 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The Nifty faces a crucial 25,500 barrier with a cautious tone after last week's strong run, while IT stocks are in sharp focus following the US administration's historic H-1B visa shake-up and the clarifications on the one-time $100,000 application fee. GST 2.0 kicks in today, where sweeping rate cuts are set to make a wide range of goods cheaper just as the festive season begins, potentially lifting sentiment across consumption names from autos to FMCG. On the global front, Asian markets trade higher, mirroring Wall Street's record-setting week, even as US futures show a slight negative bias. China keeps its key lending rates unchanged for a fourth straight month, while US Treasury yields and the dollar edge higher as investors weigh the Fed's recent rate cut and future policy moves. Plus, we spotlight key stocks in the news—from FTSE Index rejig inclusions and fresh IPOs to corporate updates and notable deals—giving you a complete picture before the opening bell.

Wall Street trades at record highs after the Fed cut rates, led by technology stocks. Investors expect further cuts, but hawkish Fed comments pushed both US Treasury yields and the dollar higher last week. In Europe, data showed industrial output rebounding; in Asia, Bank of Japan's ETF unwind plans initially weighed on Japanese shares, but concerns are easing this Monday. Gold rises for a fifth week with record ETF inflows, Apple climbs after the iPhone 19 launch, and Porsche postpones its EV launch. Trump's USD 100,000 H-1B visa fee threatens US tech and India-US relations. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, notes that strong US equities year-to-date and in September bode very well for the rest of the year.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:45) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:47) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:33) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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In this week's Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire exposes the mounting pressure driving the Fed towards an unavoidable US Treasury gold repricing, as BRICS accelerate non-dollar trade and China asserts itself as the new global gold benchmark.With COMEX and LBMA stripped of their influence, surging international demand and central banks draining Western vaults, the precious metals expert details how the unfolding reset could rapidly surge the gold price towards historic levels.Send your questions to Andy here: https://www.speakpipe.com/LFTVSign up for Kinesis on desktop:https://kinesis.money/kinesis-precious-metals/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=lftv_241Download the Kinesis Mobile app - available App Store and Google Play:Apple: https://kms.kinesis.money/signupGoogle: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kinesis.kinesisappAlso, don't forget to check out our social channels where you can stay up to date with all the latest news and developments from the team.X: https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetaryFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinesismoney/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kinesismoney/Telegram: https://t.me/kinesismoneyTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kinesismoneyThe opinions expressed in this video by Andrew Maguire and any guest are solely their own and do not reflect the official policy, position, or views of Kinesis. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or any other type of professional advice.Viewers are encouraged to seek independent financial advice tailored to their individual circumstances before making any decisions related to the gold market or other investments. Kinesis does not accept any responsibility or liability for actions taken based on the content of this video.

Wade Sutton (PwC's Washington National Tax Services - International Tax Services Leader) is joined by Pat Brown, an ITS Partner and Co-Leader of PwC's Washington National Tax Services practice. Pat previously served as the US Treasury's Associate International Tax Counsel and has been a frequent guest on the podcast. Wade and Pat take a deeper dive into the future of Pillar Two, focusing on the G7's ‘side-by-side' agreement.  They highlight the historical positions of previous US administrations, why  proposed Section 899  was dropped from OBBBA, US dissatisfaction with the lack of accommodations for the US GILTI regime and R&D tax credits, the OECD process and how countries could implement changes, and the potential for simplification including a potential permanent safe harbor. Finally, they look to the future and what may happen next. 

HEADLINE: Houthis Remain Undeterred Despite Israeli Strikes and US Sanctions GUEST AND TITLE: Bridget Toomey, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Houthi Watcher; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies SUMMARY: Bridget Toomey reports Houthis continue daily drone and missile launches towards Israel, with Israeli Iron Dome defenses proving effective. Israel responded with strikes on Houthi military and media infrastructure in Sana'a, causing civilian casualties. US Treasury sanctioned 32 Houthi-affiliated individuals/entities for supporting Iranian-backed smuggling networks. Toomey confirms Iran absolutely provides weapons, mostly via ship routes, despite interdiction efforts. She notes Houthis are undeterred, fueled by past attacks, and will likely continue unless Iran is held accountable. Bill Roggio critiques a recent, unsuccessful Israeli strike in Doha. 1943

    CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW SCHEDULE 1957 9-15-25 GOOD EVENING.  THE SHOW BEGINS IN TROUBLED AMERICA... FIRST HOUR 9-915 HEADLINE: Global Allies Worry About US Division, Adversaries Exploit Weakness GUEST AND TITLE: Ambassador Husain Haqqani, Hudson Institute Director of Eurasia Project; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies SUMMARY: Ambassador Husain Haqqani states US allies are "very worried" by American internal division and extreme rhetoric, unlike past unity. Bill Roggio notes similar European issues, but the US now seems to lead in domestic disorder. Adversaries like China, Russia, and Islamist extremists exploit this polarization, using social media manipulation and citing Western decline. Both emphasize leaders must reduce aggressive rhetoric, promote bipartisan cooperation, and control social media to heal divisions, advocating for unity to counter external exploitation and domestic radicalization. 915-930 HEADLINE: Global Allies Worry About US Division, Adversaries Exploit Weakness GUEST AND TITLE: Ambassador Husain Haqqani, Hudson Institute Director of Eurasia Project; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies 930-945 HEADLINE: Political Crises Deepen in Brazil and Venezuela Amidst US Pressure GUEST AND TITLE: Alejandro Peña Esclusa, Venezuelan writer and thinker; Ernesto Araújo, former Foreign Minister of the Republic of Brazil SUMMARY: Ernesto Araújo discusses former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's conviction for an alleged assassination plot, calling it a "show trial" despite a dissenting judge's opinion. He notes Bolsonaro's failed anti-system movement. Alejandro Peña Esclusa reports a US military buildup near Venezuela, fostering internal military discussions about turning in Maduro. Both believe their countries' fates are linked; Venezuela's liberation could expose a crime network, potentially delegitimizing Lula's regime and fostering broader Latin American freedom 945-1000 HEADLINE: Political Crises Deepen in Brazil and Venezuela Amidst US Pressure GUEST AND TITLE: Alejandro Peña Esclusa, Venezuelan writer and thinker; Ernesto Araújo, former Foreign Minister of the Republic of Brazil SUMMARY: Ernesto Araújo discusses former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's conviction for an alleged assassination plot, calling it a "show trial" despite a dissenting judge's opinion. He notes Bolsonaro's failed anti-system movement. Alejandro Peña Esclusa reports a US military buildup near Venezuela, fostering internal military discussions about turning in Maduro. Both believe their countries' fates are linked; Venezuela's liberation could expose a crime network, potentially delegitimizing Lula's regime and fostering broader Latin American freedom SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: Houthis Remain Undeterred Despite Israeli Strikes and US Sanctions GUEST AND TITLE: Bridget Toomey, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Houthi Watcher; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies SUMMARY: Bridget Toomey reports Houthis continue daily drone and missile launches towards Israel, with Israeli Iron Dome defenses proving effective. Israel responded with strikes on Houthi military and media infrastructure in Sana'a, causing civilian casualties. US Treasury sanctioned 32 Houthi-affiliated individuals/entities for supporting Iranian-backed smuggling networks. Toomey confirms Iran absolutely provides weapons, mostly via ship routes, despite interdiction efforts. She notes Houthis are undeterred, fueled by past attacks, and will likely continue unless Iran is held accountable. Bill Roggio critiques a recent, unsuccessful Israeli strike in Doha. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: Houthis Remain Undeterred Despite Israeli Strikes and US Sanctions GUEST AND TITLE: Bridget Toomey, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Houthi Watcher; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies SUMMARY: Bridget Toomey reports Houthis continue daily drone and missile launches towards Israel, with Israeli Iron Dome defenses proving effective. Israel responded with strikes on Houthi military and media infrastructure in Sana'a, causing civilian casualties. US Treasury sanctioned 32 Houthi-affiliated individuals/entities for supporting Iranian-backed smuggling networks. Toomey confirms Iran absolutely provides weapons, mostly via ship routes, despite interdiction efforts. She notes Houthis are undeterred, fueled by past attacks, and will likely continue unless Iran is held accountable. Bill Roggio critiques a recent, unsuccessful Israeli strike in Doha. 1030-1045 HEADLINE: South Korea's President Accused of Aligning with CCP and North Korea GUEST AND TITLE: Morse Tan, former US Ambassador at Large for Global Criminal Justice; Gordon Chang, author and geopolitical analyst SUMMARY: Morse Tan and Gordon Chang discuss South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's policies, including a visa waiver for Chinese tourists, which Tan likens to CCP tactics. Tan claims Yoon aligns with the Chinese Communist Party and North Korea, dismantling counterintelligence and attending parades with Putin and Kim Jong-un. He reports Chinese nationals, pro-Yoon, illegally voted, and a third of South Korean police are reportedly CCP operatives. Yoon'sapproval is low, with most Koreans distrusting the CCP and prioritizing the US alliance. 1045-1100 HEADLINE: China's Advanced Weapon Systems and Global Asteroid Defense Ambitions GUEST AND TITLE: Rick Fisher, Senior Fellow, International Assessment and Strategy Center; Gordon Chang, author and geopolitical analyst SUMMARY: Rick Fisher discusses China's new DF-26D ballistic missile, capable of intercepting aircraft carriers up to 4,000 km, and other advanced unmanned weapon systems surpassing US capabilities. Gordon Chang questions US defense against these hypersonic threats. Fisher notes Russia's Energia space program faces financial distress due to the Ukraine war. China proposes an international asteroid defense, inviting global participation. Fisher warns this PLA-controlled initiative could be a front to develop anti-satellite capabilities and challenge the US in future conflicts. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 HEADLINE: Ukraine Advances in Sumy, NATO Urged to Boost Russia Sanctions GUEST AND TITLE: John Hardie, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of DemocraciesSUMMARY: John Hardie discusses Ukrainian advances in the Sumy border area, noting Russia has redeployed better units to other regions like Donetsk, focusing on areas near Pokrovsk. He suggests Ukraine's counterattacks are part of an active defense, and their focus on Pokrovsk is strategically sound despite manpower shortages. Hardie highlights recent massive Russian drone barrages, including one into Poland, as a "wake-up call" for NATO to improve cost-effective air defenses. He advocates for stronger US secondary sanctions on Russian oil revenue and untying Ukraine's hands for long-range strikes. 1115-1130 HEADLINE: Ukraine Advances in Sumy, NATO Urged to Boost Russia Sanctions GUEST AND TITLE: John Hardie, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies130-1145 HEADLINE: MIT Professor Explains the Discovery of Ionic Liquid, Expanding Search for Extraterrestrial Life GUEST AND TITLE: Professor Sara Seager, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; David Livingston, Dr. Space of the Space Show SUMMARY: Professor Sara Seager discusses the accidental lab discovery of ionic liquids, a non-evaporating liquid salt potentially sustaining life on planets without water, expanding the traditional "habitable zone" concept. She envisions future missions like a Solar Gravitational Lens Telescope. For her lifetime, Professor Seager prioritizes privately funded "Morning Star missions" to Venus, beginning with Rocket Lab in 2026, to directly study its cloud particles for signs of life in this overlooked sister planet.1145-1200 HEADLINE: MIT Professor Explains the Discovery of Ionic Liquid, Expanding Search for Extraterrestrial Life GUEST AND TITLE: Professor Sara Seager, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; David Livingston, Dr. Space of the Space Show SUMMARY: Professor Sara Seager discusses the accidental lab discovery of ionic liquids, a non-evaporating liquid salt potentially sustaining life on planets without water, expanding the traditional "habitable zone" concept. She envisions future missions like a Solar Gravitational Lens Telescope. For her lifetime, Professor Seager prioritizes privately funded "Morning Star missions" to Venus, beginning with Rocket Lab in 2026, to directly study its cloud particles for signs of life in this overlooked sister planet FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 HEADLINE: US Diplomat Addresses Failed Doha Strike Amidst Iranian Defiance GUEST AND TITLE: Mary Kissel, Executive Vice President, Stephens Incorporated, former Senior Advisor for the Secretary of State SUMMARY: Mary Kissel discusses Secretary of State Marco Rubio's diplomatic shuttle after an unsuccessful Israeli airstrike in Doha targeting Hamas leadership. Despite the failure, she believes Israel's defense capabilities and past decapitation efforts were incredible, fostering public resolve against terrorism. Kissel notes Qatar's role as a money-laundering center and host of terror groups, despite its strategic importance to the US. She emphasizes that Iran, the world's largest state sponsor of terrorism, remains defiant regarding its nuclear and missile programs, posing an ongoing challenge for Israel and the US.1215-1230 Guest Names: Ahmad Sharawi and Bill Roggio Summary: Ahmad Sharawi and Bill Roggio discuss Al-Sharaa, the self-named president of Syria, who was appointed by militia leaders. His loyalist-drafted constitution grants him extensive powers, with key ministries held by former HTScommanders, and minority representatives serving as mere tokens. Formal Name: Ahmad Sharawi and Bill Roggio, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies 1230-1245 HEADLINE: Genocide Allegations Against Israel Debunked by Expert Analysis GUEST AND TITLE: Peter Berkowitz, Tad and Diane Taube Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University SUMMARY: Peter Berkowitz debunks genocide allegations against Israel, emphasizing the UN definition requires intent to destroy a group. He questions the credibility of the International Association of Genocide Scholars. Berkowitz highlights the absurdity, noting the Palestinian population tripled since the 1980s despite such claims. He attributes propaganda success to Hamas's use of human shields, shifting responsibility for civilian casualties. A comprehensive report systematically refutes claims of deliberate starvation, civilian targeting, and infrastructure bombing, demonstrating Israel's precautions.1245-100 AM HEADLINE: Genocide Allegations Against Israel Debunked by Expert Analysis GUEST AND TITLE: Peter Berkowitz, Tad and Diane Taube Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University SUMMARY: Peter Berkowitz debunks genocide allegations against Israel, emphasizing the UN definition require

HEADLINE: Houthis Remain Undeterred Despite Israeli Strikes and US Sanctions GUEST AND TITLE: Bridget Toomey, Foundation for Defense of Democracies Houthi Watcher; Bill Roggio, Senior Fellow for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies SUMMARY: Bridget Toomey reports Houthis continue daily drone and missile launches towards Israel, with Israeli Iron Dome defenses proving effective. Israel responded with strikes on Houthi military and media infrastructure in Sana'a, causing civilian casualties. US Treasury sanctioned 32 Houthi-affiliated individuals/entities for supporting Iranian-backed smuggling networks. Toomey confirms Iran absolutely provides weapons, mostly via ship routes, despite interdiction efforts. She notes Houthis are undeterred, fueled by past attacks, and will likely continue unless Iran is held accountable. Bill Roggio critiques a recent, unsuccessful Israeli strike in Doha. 1940

As sweeping US tax reform takes effect in 2025, corporate taxpayers face important changes. These include extensions of and modifications to key Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (TCJA) provisions as well as expansion of some Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives while accelerating the phase-out of others. In this episode we provide an overview of the key corporate provisions and dive into the related accounting and financial reporting implications. In this episode, we discuss:03:24 – Extensions and modifications of TCJA domestic tax laws13:42 – Extensions and modifications of TCJA international tax laws24:03 – Changes to IRA energy credits29:30 – Other provisions (e.g., endowments, charitable deductions)33:19 – Global tax implications and Pillar Two39:25 – What's ahead for corporate tax policy and accounting for income taxes For more information, check out our publications, Accounting for 2025 US tax reform and President Trump signs H.R. 1, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”. You can also listen to our related podcast episode, Sustainability now: Facing IRA and clean energy credit uncertainty. Be sure to follow this podcast on your favorite podcast app and subscribe to our weekly newsletter to stay in the loop. About our guests Jennifer Spang is PwC's National Office income tax accounting leader, specializing in tax accounting under US GAAP and IFRS. She has over 25 years of experience helping companies in a variety of industries navigate complex tax accounting matters. Pat Brown is PwC's National Tax Office Co-Leader. Prior to joining PwC, he spent 16 years in the private sector, including as the director of tax policy for a Fortune 50 company. Pat has also served in the US Treasury's Office of Tax Policy as an attorney-advisor and as Associate International Tax Counsel. About our guest host Diana Stoltzfus is a partner in the National Office who helps to shape PwC's perspectives on regulatory matters, responses to rulemakings and policy development, and implementation related to significant new rules and regulations. Prior to rejoining PwC, Diana was the Deputy Chief Accountant in the Office of the Chief Accountant (OCA) at the SEC where she led the activities of the OCA's Professional Practices Group. Transcripts available upon request for individuals who may need a disability-related accommodation. Please send requests to us_podcast@pwc.com.Did you enjoy this episode? Text us your thoughts and be sure to include the episode name.

Samim Ghamami is former SEC economist. Samim returns to the show to discuss the fiscal trajectory of the US, the outlook of interest rates, the US Treasury market's impact on inflation, potential reforms to the Treasury market and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on August 5th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow Samim on X: @GhamamiSamim Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:42 - Fiscal Trajectory of the US 00:3:55 - Interest Rates 00:21:28 - Inflation 00:39:53 - Treasury Market Reform 00:48:05 - Outro

Days before the anniversary of 9/11, the Treasury rolled out sweeping reforms to the Bank Secrecy Act, a Patriot Act 2.0 aimed at the digital world. These new powers would give government agencies the ability to censor crypto transactions, track your spending, and shut down financial freedom at will.SPONSORS✅ Lednhttps://learn.ledn.io/simplySimply Bitcoin clients get 0.25% off their first loanNeed liquidity without selling your Bitcoin? Ledn has been the trusted Bitcoin-backed lending platform for 6+ years. Access your BTC's value while HODLing.

Markets are off to a strong start this week, which will be a critical one with a 'triple-header' of major central bank decisions. The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all scheduled to announce their latest monetary policy moves. Recent economic data suggest it may now be time for the Fed to restart its rate-cutting cycle, following a pause that began in January. In today's discussion, we're joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who anticipates further declines in US Treasury yields and the value of the US dollar. He also expects equities to continue their upward momentum, supported by improving technicals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (07:06) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:58) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureECB President is now telegraphing their plan. They wan to implement the CBDC, they want full control of the people. The [CB] is now pushing the narrative that Trump is forcing them to lower the rates. Trump has the countermeasures in place to stop the [CB]. The [DS] thought they would be able to start a civil war with the American people. They did the opposite. They brought the American people together and exposed the brainwashed people in America. The people realize how bad the infiltration is. The evil in America is now being exposed. Good will always defeat evil. Trump is now pointing the finger at Soros. Most likely we will see Antifa make a move in certain cities, this is why Trump is prepositioning the NG.   Economy https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1966226002314752189 Federal Reserve to announce interest rate cut amid economic slowdown, pressure from President Trump The Federal Reserve is set to announce an interest rate cut this week in response to a slowing economy, making clear it is not surrendering to President Donald Trump's demands. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a long-awaited interest rate cut this week, responding to a slowing economy as opposed to yielding to President Donald Trump's demands. With a big decision facing the Fed, added pressure from President Trump isn't helping. Experts say his repeated calls for the Fed to lower interest rates are damaging the agency's independence and credibility, spooking investors and the market. Source:  kmbc.com  (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); 'Strong Chance' US Will Form Strategic Bitcoin Reserve This Year: Alex Thorn    There is a high likelihood that the United States government will form the highly anticipated Strategic Bitcoin Reserve by the end of this year, says Galaxy Digital's head of firmwide research, Alex Thorn. However, other industry executives are less confident.   Several developments hint that the plan is moving forward While US President Trump signed the executive order officially establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and US Digital Asset Stockpile in March, a formalized strategic plan has not been confirmed yet. Source: Alex Thorn However, several recent developments suggest that the plan is still progressing. On Tuesday, US lawmakers introduced a bill directing the US Treasury to examine and produce a report on the feasibility and technical considerations of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, on July 31, Cointelegraph reported that Trump's crypto liaison confirmed that the administration is still keen on a strategic Bitcoin reserve, despite only briefly mentioning it in its recently published crypto policy report. Source: zerohedge.com Political/Rights https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1966978140363964443 https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1966223556913885617 https://twitter.com/SecDuffy/status/1966943501444415920   cannot tolerate that behavior. We heal as a country when we send the message that glorifying political violence is COMPLETELY UNACCEPTABLE!

When you listen to J Powell speak from the podium at the FOMC meeting he typically talks about managing the Fed's dual mandate to maintain price stability and to maximize employment. The past several years have been focused on taming inflation. Core PCE inflation measured 0.3% for the past two months June and July. We will get the August report on Sept 26. On an annualized basis Core PCE inflation remains pretty sticky at 2.9%. This is higher than the Fed's 2% target. It's not zero, and it's not runaway  inflation either. I don't even get into the debate about whether the measurement is appropriate or not. We will take it for now that Core PCE is what the Fed needs to set interest rates. The other side of the coin is the labor market. If you've been listening to this show for a while, you will know that I've been flagging the inconsistencies between the two surveys that make up the employment report. There is the payroll survey and the household survey. The numbers reported in the two surveys are not consistent and have not been consistent for a long time. The employment report is the one that is most likely being overstated. Yesterday, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has announced a significant downward revision to its employment data for the U.S. down 911,000 jobs compared with the previous estimate. That's a big deal. So with this latest employment data, it's almost a foregone conclusion that the Fed will cut their benchmark lending rate at next week's meeting. The real question is how much, and whether this will affect the medium term bond yield and the 10 year bond yield in particular.The bond yield is a reflection of risk for those bonds that have a risk premium attached to them. I don't believe the US Treasury market is carrying a risk premium. So in the absence of a risk premium, the yield is a reflection of the economy. A weaker economic cycle will pull bond yields down as growth is going to take a hit. A stronger economy will bring inflationary pressure on prices which will tend to drive yields up. We have a 30 day t-bill trading at 4.17%, the 10 year treasury trading at 4.08%, and the 2 year trading at 3.55% and the 5 years trading at 3.61%. This is the market clearly signalling that over the medium term, interest rates are heading lower. That's good news for real estate investors. ------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Fiscal policy shifts, from taxes to tariffs, are steering global capital and trade flows. The US, for instance, is attracting investments despite the tariff headlines—illustrating how the impact of these policies continues to evolve. In a dynamic policy environment, taxes and tariffs could create new implications for asset classes, sectors, and market structures.  This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores macro implications from taxes and tariffs, how policy changes are shaping the way investors allocate capital, and why economic growth could be more resilient against higher tariffs than in the past.  Our guests are: Douglas Holtz-Eakin, President of the American Action Forum and former Director of the Congressional Budget Office Kimberly Clausing, professor of tax law and policy at UCLA School of Law and former lead economist in the US Treasury's Office of Tax Policy Jeffrey Young, Head of Investment Strategy for PGIM's quant team Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

The Nikkei 225 was up around 1.5% and the Topix hit a record high this morning after Japan's prime minister resigned over the weekend. It's hoped that a new regime should provide greater longer-term policy and political stability, and a more conducive pro-growth environment for the equities market. Asia's stock markets rallied after the US jobs report on Friday provided further justification for data-based Fed rate cuts.At the start of a big week including inflation data, a vote of confidence in the French government and the September ECB meeting, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he believes that there's room for both US equities and the price of gold to rally further and for US Treasury yields to keep falling.  (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (06:31) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (09:03) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Gold prices hit a new record overnight. The gold rally has its foundations in central bank accumulation. Central banks that hold gold still hold a dollar reserve asset (just one that is independent of US Treasury control). That foundation has been built on with expectations of US rate cuts.

This week's episode explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting corporate profitability while reshaping the labour market. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, S&P 500 revenue per worker has climbed 15% after years of stagnation, but entry-level jobs are increasingly under pressure. The Federal Reserve's focus has now shifted from inflation towards employment. Our economist expects five rate cuts by March 2026, though policy uncertainty and eroded trust keep our 10-year US Treasury yield forecast steady at 4.25%. History offers many examples of presidential overreach, episodes that typically prove temporary. With the Trump administration set to continue for another three and a half years, however, investors may feel compelled to exercise caution and consider diversifying beyond the US and the traditional financial system, including assets such as gold.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami of the RiskReversal Podcast discuss various market metrics, including the S&P 500 trading at an all-time high, the VIX, the US Dollar Index, and US Treasury yields. Nvidia's earnings report is a focal point, with expected high but moderating growth rates. They also analyze stocks like Microsoft, Taiwan Semiconductor, Palantir, Salesforce, Adobe, and Broadcom, considering their earnings and market expectations. There's a discussion on the pressure being exerted on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with concerns about the institution's independence. They also touch on market comparisons to historical metrics, the importance of gold, and commentary on Bitcoin's trajectory. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The dominance of the US dollar as the global reserve currency has been gradually declining for years, but Donald Trump's policies could rapidly accelerate de-dollarization and the transition to a more multipolar international financial order, warn even mainstream American economists like Barry Eichengreen and Kenneth Rogoff. Political economist Ben Norton reviews the evidence. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=utvD1JiIgCM Our related article - "Trump advisor reveals tariff strategy: Force countries to pay tribute to maintain US empire": https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2025/04/10/trump-advisor-miran-tariff-pay-us-empire/ Topics 0:00 Dedollarization 0:43 Trump's policies accelerate dedollarization 3:50 Economist Barry Eichengreen 5:25 (CLIP) Barry Eichengreen on dedollarization 6:54 Gradually, and then suddenly 7:49 Erosion of dollar dominance 9:18 Decline of US economy 11:36 Rise of China 12:50 Gold: why central banks keep buying it 15:42 Western sanctions 17:57 List of reasons driving dedollarization 18:42 Trump's tariffs & US trade deficit 20:10 Trump pressures Federal Reserve 22:58 Why Trump wants low interest rates 24:56 US Treasury market volatility 26:03 Fewer foreigners want US government debt 29:32 US economy: a financial house of cards 30:34 High corporate bond yields 32:26 Reasons driving dedollarization 32:56 Inflation 36:31 Trump fires BLS chief 37:40 Mar-a-Lago Accord plans 38:54 (CLIP) Trump economic advisor Stephen Miran 38:59 Plaza Accord redux 40:30 Century bonds: de facto US debt default 44:46 Private investors de-dollarize too 45:25 Post-US dollar world 47:14 Economist Kenneth Rogoff 48:09 Trump's own Nixon shock 48:51 Multipolar financial world 50:46 Outro

In this week's Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire explains how extreme stress in COMEX's gold settlement mechanism forced emergency bullion deliveries, exposing the fragility of paper markets and the threat of systemic failure in global gold pricing.Andrew reveals how Basel III-compliant exchanges across China are replacing the LBMA's dominance, as global liquidity shifts towards physical settlement, with central banks preparing for a dramatic gold revaluation that could reshape monetary order.Send your questions to Andy here: https://www.speakpipe.com/LFTV_______________________________________________________________Timestamps: 00:00 Start02:29 Nixon Shock anniversary highlights the fragility of fiat money10:00 EFP imbalances show Comex reliability issue, prompting NSFR compliance 18:13 COMEX paper market fragility risks triggering systemic failure25:12 Fed prepares US Treasury gold price adjustment amid leadership change29:59 Question from Kerry: Smaller nations adopting silver as reserve asset?32:05 LBMA losing grip, real silver price emerging globally_______________________________________________________________Sign up for Kinesis on desktop:https://kinesis.money/kinesis-precious-metals/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=lftv_237Download the Kinesis Mobile app - available App Store and Google Play:Apple: https://kms.kinesis.money/signupGoogle: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.kinesis.kinesisappAlso, don't forget to check out our social channels where you can stay up to date with all the latest news and developments from the team.X: https://twitter.com/KinesisMonetaryFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/kinesismoney/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/kinesismoney/Telegram: https://t.me/kinesismoneyTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@kinesismoneyThe opinions expressed in this video by Andrew Maguire and any guest are solely their own and do not reflect the official policy, position, or views of Kinesis. The information provided is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or any other type of professional advice.Viewers are encouraged to seek independent financial advice tailored to their individual circumstances before making any decisions related to the gold market or other investments. Kinesis does not accept any responsibility or liability for actions taken based on the content of this video.

Is crypto teetering on the precipice of a huge pullback or are we just setting up for the next move up? All eyes are on Jerome Powell to see if the fed is planning rate cuts. But should Bitcoin care? The US Treasury secretary is flip-flopping on Bitcoin. But you know who isn’t flipping or flopping? We aren’t. Now into our ninth year of covering this space, we got the latest Bitcoin, blockchain and AI news you can use, cause one of is the Jews… on this “the other one is an uncircumcised heathen” episode #787 of The Bad Crypto Podcast. Full Show Notes at: http://badco.in/ SUBSCRIBE, RATE, & REVIEW: Apple Podcast: http://badco.in/itunes Google Podcasts: http://badco.in/google Spotify: http://badco.in/spotify Amazon Music: http://badco.in/amazon FREE NFTs when you JOIN THE BAD CRYPTO NIFTY CLUB at https://badcrypto.uncut.network FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL MEDIA: Twitter: @badcryptopod - @joelcomm - @teedubya Facebook: /BadCrypto - /JoelComm - /teedubyaw Facebook Mastermind Group: /BadCrypto LinkedIn: /in/joelcomm - /in/teedubya Instagram: @BadCryptoPodcast Email: badcryptopodcast[at]gmail[dot]com Phone: SEVEN-OH-8-88FIVE- 90THIRTY DISCLAIMER: Do your own due diligence and research. Joel Comm and Travis Wright are NOT FINANCIAL ADVISORS. We are sharing our journey with you as we learn more about this crazy little thing called cryptocurrency. We make NO RECOMMENDATIONS. Don't take anything we say as gospel. Do not come to our homes with pitchforks because you lost money by listening to us. We only share with you what we are learning and what we are investing it. We will never "pump or dump" any cryptocurrencies. Take what we say with a grain of salt. You must research this stuff on your own! Just know that we will always strive for RADICAL TRANSPARENCY with any show associations. Support the show: https://badcryptopodcast.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Crypto News: Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate. Ether accumulation heats up: $882M in ETH snapped up by Bitmine and unknown whale. S&P Dow Jones in talks to bring tokenized indexes to exchanges. US Treasury weighs digital ID verification in DeFi to tackle illicit finance.Show Sponsor -

In this podcast Dan Lotano, GoodLeap's Chief Operating Officer, talks about the Treasury guidance that is good news, because it offers a smooth glidepath, rather than a hard landing.   This podcast was recorded on August 15, 2025 at 11AM Pacific.   Additionally, we talk about GoodLeap and their involvement with virtual power plants (VPPs), solar and storage financing, home energy, the GoodLeap app, Connecticut Green Bank and a lot more.

A new platform is emerging that will allow investors to trade shares of private tech giants like SpaceX and OpenAI with the ease of crypto, raising new questions about risk and accessibility for retail traders. Today's Stocks & Topics: XLE - The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, Market Wrap, TEVA - Teva- Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. ADR, The New Frontier of Trading: Tokenized Shares of SpaceX and OpenAI, TBIL - F/m US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF, SGOV - iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF, TLRY - Tilray Brands Inc., Private Equity, PLD - Prologis Inc, DVN - Devon Energy Corp.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://www.avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out Ka'Chava and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.kachava.com* Check out Mint Mobile: https://mintmobile.com/INVESTTALK* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out Upwork: https://upwork.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

The DC Court of Appeals has handed President Trump yet ANOTHER YUGE court legal victory in affirming the authority of the President to cut off funding from Progressive money laundering operations like USAID and various corrupt NGOs, which had been stealing US taxpayer dollars by the trillions—all to line the pockets of Progressive politicians, court followers, and their privileged families. The unelected, black-robed, tyrannical federal district court Judge Amir Hatem Mahdy Ali, the first Muslim and Arab DC district court judge, raised to the bench on November 20 2024 by the Democrats AFTER Trump's re-election, by a mere 50-49 vote, who was also a past leader of a radical left-wing group that called for defunding the police, had issued an injunction freezing Trump's Article II Executive Branch authority.  This was at the behest of a gaggle of plaintiff USAID/NGO thieves looting the US Treasury for their own fattening. The court of appeals had initially paused much of Judge Amir Hatem Mahdy Ali's injunction, and today that same three-judge panel issued Judge Ali's injunction the death blow, making clear that if anyone could check Trump's Article II authority to freeze spending it was the Article I and Article II branches of government—and not some mere Article III judge, and certainly not some gaggle of USAID/NGOs who had been eating fat at the trough of stolen taxpayer moneys. The #1 guide for understanding when using force to protect yourself is legal. Now yours for FREE! Just pay the S&H for us to get it to you.➡️ Carry with confidence, knowing you are protected from predators AND predatory prosecutors➡️ Correct the common myths you may think are true but get people in trouble​➡️ Know you're getting the best with this abridged version of our best-selling 5-star Amazon-rated book that has been praised by many (including self-defense legends!) for its easy, entertaining, and informative style.​➡️ Many interesting, if sometimes heart-wrenching, true-life examplesGet Your Free Book: https://lawofselfdefense.com/getthebook

Are you looking to save time, make money, and start winning with less risk? Then head to https://www.ovtlyr.com.Unraveling the massive financial challenges facing the US Treasury and how this could impact the market is crucial for every trader. This video dives deep into the intricate world of government spending, national debt, and what it means for your portfolio. We'll explore a compelling report from the Treasury Department itself, revealing their urgent need to borrow a staggering $1.6 trillion before the end of the year.✅ The Looming Debt Crisis: A Deep DiveGet ready for an eye-opening discussion on the government's borrowing estimates and the alarming rate at which the national debt is skyrocketing. We'll analyze charts and data to show you exactly how this historic spending spree is impacting the economy. The video will break down the concept of the Treasury General Account, the government's "checking account," and how its current balance reveals a hidden truth about deficit spending.This episode features a thought-provoking clip that highlights the concept of a "wealth ripple effect" – the incredible potential of helping others through personal financial success. It's a powerful motivator that reminds us why building generational wealth is so important.✅ Trading Strategies and Market OpportunitiesBut it's not all doom and gloom! We'll shift gears to focus on what matters most: making money in the market. The second half of the video is packed with actionable insights and powerful trading ideas. We'll review a custom scanner and analyze several stocks poised for a breakout. You'll learn to spot "gap and go" setups, identify strong bullish signals, and understand how to navigate pre-market chaos.We'll dissect real-time examples of trades and discuss key indicators like the 10 over 20 and price over 50 moving averages. This isn't just theory; it's a practical guide to help you build a solid trading plan. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, you'll gain valuable knowledge on how to manage risk and capitalize on market movements.We'll also tackle a few questions from our community, including a defense of our bullish thesis on AMD. This video is all about empowering you to take control of your financial future.Gain instant access to the AI-powered tools and behavioral insights top traders use to spot big moves before the crowd. Start trading smarter today

This is Part 6 of Cold as ICE. This is a sample of a premium episode. Sign up to listen to the entire episode. patreon.com/wetwired We go over the ballooning Homeland Security budget and ICE's unprecedented expansion. None of this looks good for anyone in the US but as always with things like this the most vulnerable people are hit first and the hardest. Unsurprisingly and despite their positive comments, the real winners won't be Trump's supporters. It's the private contractors who are coming out on top. Companies like GEO Group and Core Civic are vacuuming up money as fast as the US Treasury can print it. All the while, DHS has been running a Blood and Soil ad campaign on social media.

Custodia Bank CEO and crytpo-advocate Caitlin Long comes back to the podcast to challenge me on a number of subjects concerning the Federal Reserve What role did OMC Chair Jerome Powell play in assisting or hindering the Biden Junta's persecution of conservatives, it's debanking operations, and how it mismanaged the post-COVID world.  We also discuss how that interfaces with the new stablecoin regime being put in place legally by President Trump and what it really means for the US Treasury market and the US dollar.Show Notes:Custodia BankCaitlin on XTom on XGGNG on Patreon

Donald Trump has stepped up his diplomatic assault on the government of Brazil's left- wing president, Luis Inacio Lula da Silva. He's signed an executive order which brings total tariffs on Brazilian goods to fifty percent. At the same time, the US Treasury has imposed financial sanctions on the senior Brazilian judge overseeing the criminal case for coup plotting against Brazil's former leader, Jair Bolsonaro. We speak to Brazilian ambassador to London, Antonio Patriota.Also, we speak to Yehuda Cohen - the father of an Israeli soldier taken hostage on October 7th -- who tells us he thinks the recognition of a Palestinian state will help pressure his government to get his son home. And the actor Stephen Fry on playing a formidable aristocratic woman in Oscar Wilde's most famous play, the Importance of Being Earnest.(Photo: President Trump and Brazilian then-President Bolsonaro at Mar-a-Lago in 2020. Credit: Getty Images)

Brad Setser is the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His expertise includes global trade and capital flows, financial vulnerability analysis, and sovereign debt restructuring. He regularly blogs at Follow the Money. Brad served as a senior advisor to the United States Trade Representative from 2021 to 2022, where he worked on the resolution of several trade disputes. He had previously served as the deputy assistant secretary for international economic analysis in the US Treasury from 2011 to 2015 and as a director for international economics on the staff of the National Economic Council and the National Security Council. This podcast covers US tariffs and their implementation, economic impact: recession or not, disrupting global system or not, and much more.    Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive

Take the Survey: https://tiny.cc/cc860 BestPodcastintheMetaverse.com Canary Cry News Talk #860 - 07.21.2025 - Recorded Live to 1s and 0s Deconstructing World Events from a Biblical Worldview Declaring Jesus as Lord amidst the Fifth Generation War! CageRattlerCoffee.com SD/TC email Ike for discount https://CanaryCry.Support   Send address and shirt size updates to canarycrysupplydrop@gmail.com   Join the Canary Cry Roundtable This Episode was Produced By:   Executive Producers Greg G*** Sir Holmes Good and Faithful Knight of the Canarian*** Sir LX Protocol V2 Baron of the Berrean Protocol*** Sir Jamey Not the Lanister***   Producers of TREASURE (CanaryCry.Support) Cage Rattler Coffee, Sir Sentinel the Challenge Knight, Clayton C, Kim W, American Hobo, Caretaker Dan, Aaron B, Christopher M   Producers of TREASURE (CanaryCry.Support) Kalub   Producers of TIME Timestampers: Jade Bouncerson, Morgan E Clippy Team: Courtney S, JOLMS, Kristen Reminders: Clankoniphius Links: JAM   SHOW NOTES/TIMESTAMPS HELLO WORLD 0:25   SHILLZILLA/HUNTER 5:08 Chris has advice for Hunter Bidens defense of slavery (X)   TRUMP/EPSTEIN/MT 25:50 MTG warns Trump that ‘dangling bits of red meat no longer satisfies' (Politico)   OBAMA 34:12 CLIP: Tulsi Releases Russia Russia Russia (X) New Evidence of Obama Conspiracy to Subvert Trump's 2016 Victory and Presidency (DNI)   MONEY 49:28 → US Treasury's Bessent says Federal Reserve needs to be examined as an institution (Reuters) → Fed Chair Jerome Powell hit with criminal referral by House GOP Trump ally (FOX)   OIL/33 1:22:34 The largest Polish oil field has been discovered at the bottom of the Baltic Sea (Poland News)   AI 1:28:43 Ai Admits to wrongdoing Autistic man (WSJ) Americans Are Using AI To Diagnose Their Health Issues (Newsweek)   TRANSHUMAN/BIBLICAL 2:09:21 Christianity is being rewritten by men who think they'll never die (The Blaze)   EXECUTIVE PRODUCERS 3:03:13 TALENT/TIME END 3:46:38

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Trumps policies are working, local businesses are now admitting that they are feeling the benefits of the tariffs, they said before they were being robbed because of loop holes in previous deals. Powell being brought up on charges. Treasury Sec Bessent says the Fed should be reviewed, he doesn't know what they do. The [DS] is in panic mode. Trump is bringing the storm up on them and they are trying to spin the Russia hoax, it is failing. Trump is now going after the king on the chess board. The [DS] attacked him and repeated that nobody is above the law, it's like Trump lead them down the path to set the stage later on. All roads lead to Obama. Trump is bringing the pressure, the [DS] are about to make stupid moves, checkmate.   Economy   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1947289932449394865  calls of people having an interest in doing business!" "And the process hasn't even changed. Food security is national security and we need to be able to produce our own food here in the United States."  https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1947333237891551411   US Treasury's Bessent says Federal Reserve needs to be examined as an institution U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the entire Federal Reserve needed to be examined as an institution and whether it had been successful. But he said the institution should be reviewed, citing what he called "fear-mongering over tariffs" despite the emergence thus far of little, if any, inflationary effect. "I think that what we need to do is examine the entire Federal Reserve institution and whether they have been successful," Bessent said, adding that he would give a keynote speech at the U.S. central bank on Monday evening at the start of a regulatory conference. Source:  gazette.com  U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's statement, calling for a comprehensive review of the Federal Reserve (    Specifically, Bessent suggested evaluating the Fed's entire institutional structure, operations, and track record to assess whether it has effectively met its core mandates—such as achieving maximum employment, stable prices (typically targeting 2% inflation), and moderate long-term interest rates. Such an examination could involve congressional oversight, audits, or policy changes, though Bessent did not specify details in the interview. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1947343993756344521 Political/Rights Writers Guild Calls on Letitia James to Investigate CBS Cancellation of Late Show With Stephen Colbert Over Alleged “Bribe” to “Curry Favor” With Trump The Writers Guild of America is urging Trump nemesis New York State Attorney General Letitia James to investigate CBS owner Paramount over the cancellation of the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. The Guild accuses Paramount of bribery by firing Colbert to “curry favor” with the Trump administration as it seeks approval for a merger with Skydance. Text of the Guild's statement: Source: thegatewaypundit.com Pete Buttigieg's DOT spent $80 billion on DEI grants,

Avik Roy joins Bitcoin Magazine Political Correspondent Frank Corva for a discussion on the passage of the GENIUS Act, the future of Bitcoin in Washington as well as the macroeconomic picture when it comes to U.S. Treasury issuance, stablecoins, and why he believes bitcoin may become the focal asset in years to come.He breaks down the implications of various U.S. debt default scenarios, programmable currency surveillance, and the central tension between free markets and central planning in the digital age.Avik is the Founder & CEO of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity (FREOPP) and is also the President & CEO of the National Institute for Health Care Management. He is also a Senior Advisor at the Bitcoin Policy Institute and an incoming Board Member at STRIVE Asset Management.