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Nowhere is the economy's resilience more evident than in the vehicle market. To break this down, the Inside Economics team is joined by colleague Mike Brisson, and the brain trust at Cox Automotive, including Jeremy Robb, Chief Economist, and repeat guest Jonathan Smoke, Chief Strategy Officer. The group weighs how the recent escalation of the Iran War is impacting gas prices and consumer decisions around new and used car buying, including EVs and hybrids. They also discuss how tariffs have (or haven't) affected vehicle prices over the past year and consider auto lending as interest rates rise. Following the stats game, the experts give their forecasts for vehicle sales. Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
On Food Talk with Dani Nierenberg, Dani speaks with Maximo Torero, Chief Economist for the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization about the latest report on the State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World. They discuss the decline in global hunger, why the cost of a healthy diet is significantly higher than in 2020, and the policies that can help countries expand access to nutritious food for all. Plus, farmers in Bangladesh protest harmful pesticides, the Rodale Institute announces an ambitious campaign to transition 10 million acres to organic and regenerative organic, USDA employees warn relocation plans threaten the agency, and Brazil's government announces support for a program boosting food security in Namibia. While you're listening, subscribe, rate, and review the show; it would mean the world to us to have your feedback. You can listen to "Food Talk with Dani Nierenberg" wherever you consume your podcasts.
In today's episode, I'm once again joined by Maximo Torero, Chief Economist of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, on the day the 2026 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report, or SOFI, is released. Each year, SOFI gives the clearest picture of where the world stands on hunger and nutrition.You'll hear why global hunger has fallen for a third year running even as official development assistance was cut by more than 25%, why Africa now has more hungry people than Asia, and why 2.7 billion people still can't afford a healthy diet — one that now costs more than the extreme poverty line itself.Resources and links:The 2026 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World (SOFI) report FAO website Maximo Torero, FAO Chief EconomistMaximo Torero on LinkedInConnect:Future Fork podcast websitePaul Newnham on InstagramPaul Newnham on XPaul Newnham on LinkedInDisruptive Consulting Solutions websiteSDG2 Advocacy Hub websiteSDG2 Advocacy Hub on XSDG2 Advocacy Hub on FacebookSDG2 Advocacy Hub on LinkedIn
There's cautious optimism from economists that inflation will start falling after today. Stats NZ is releasing CPI figures for the June quarter later this morning, which is expected to largely reflect the impact of the Iran war, along with other cost pressures like rates and utility costs. Economists expect it surge to somewhere around 4%. BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking that based on their forecasts, this should be the peak. He says next quarter BNZ predicts inflation to come down to 3.8%, before it tails away to be within the Reserve Bank's band in the middle of next year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The Government's carbon credit trading scheme could have shut New Zealand's only cement manufacturing plant, but Fletcher Building announced today it got a $60 million bailout to keep it running - the $60m is not a loan. NZ Initiative Chief Economist Dr Eric Crampton told Heather du Plessis-Allan that the bailout doesn't address the root cause of the issue. "It's a mess that's trying to solve what's actually a real problem in how the government's industrial allocations in the emissions trading scheme work - the design of those is not good, and they are particularly not good when it comes to cement manufacturing," he said. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Oil prices rise as high as US$91/barrel overnight after Iran blows up two tankers and the Houthis blockade Saudi oil shipments via the Red Sea. The UK has a new Prime Minister who's looking at a tax cut, and New Zealand inflation is set to hit 4% today. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ's Chief Economist for Southeast Asia & India Sanjay Mathur analyses the effects of America's exceptional economic and corporate profit growth on Asia's economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Marie Owens Thomsen, Chief Economist and SVP Sustainability at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), has emerged as one of the most outspoken voices in the aviation decarbonization debate. Is the European Emissions Trading System (ETS) fit for purpose? Are the EU's current sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates fit for purpose? Are airlines carrying a fair share of the decarbonization cost burden? These are some of the questions Marie addresses regularly at industry conferences, and that we discuss in depth in today's episode. As a preview: while agreeing with the Net Zero 2050 goal, Marie - and IATA for that matter - believes the current regulatory framework in Europe is badly designed and fails to account for the dynamics of both the aviation and energy industries. True, IATA is not an impartial actor in this discussion, as it obviously represents the interests of its member airlines. But as the main target of these regulations, airlines are certainly entitled to have their voice heard, if only because, with an average profit margin that has never exceeded the low single digits, any poorly designed regulation can seriously damage an industry that is, after all, one of the pillars of global economic growth and an and an enabler of trade, tourism, human connection, and all sort of other opportunities.IATA has made its case with figures and studies, yet it's often Marie's sharp commentary that often drives IATA's point home. It is illustrative that this conversation was, in fact, originally planned to last around 45 minutes, but the topic has so many consequential angles that we ended up talking for considerably longer, discussing what could realistically be done to ensure the airline industry meets its environmental commitments without putting its future in jeopardy. So tune in for a fascinating conversation about sustainability, environmental regulation and what these mean for airlines with IATA's Chief Economist, Marie Owens Thomsen!
In this episode of Ibec Responds, @Alan Sherlock, External Affairs Manager, sits down with @Gerard Brady, Head of National Policy and Chief Economist and @Hazel Ahern-Flynn, Senior Economist to discuss the key findings from our latest Economic Outlook report [link]. We are currently navigating a period of intense global volatility. From the dramatic "whiplash" trade effects driven by anticipated US tariffs to the staggering rise of AI-enabling goods, our economic landscape is shifting rapidly. Meanwhile, Irish businesses are feeling the pinch of a cooling domestic labour market and rising operational costs. Alan, Ger and Hazel also use this moment to reiterate our call for the deployment of the National Training Fund. Unlocking this fund is essential to support the workforce transition, prepare our people for the future of work, and firmly establish Ireland as a frontrunner in the emerging global economy. Thank you for listening. To explore all of Ibec's podcast offering, visit here. Make sure to follow Ibec Podcasts to stay up to date with new episodes.
Join FPC Executive Director and CEO Reed Luhtanen as he goes off the rails with Callum Godwin, Chief Economist at CMSPI. Reed and Callum talk about why Callum believes now is the time for merchants to engage with faster payments in a serious way, how merchants can benefit from faster payments, and cricket. Connect with Reed at PaymentsED in Boston July 27-29; MRC San Diego September 14-16; and MAG September 27-29!Follow FPC on Linkedin! https://www.linkedin.com/company/us-faster-payments-council/posts/?feedView=all
Restrictions on innovation are being seen as a form of self-sabotage. ACT wants to introduce innovation trials – letting government ministers pause existing regulations if they block tests of new technology. Leader David Seymour told innovators the country punches above its weight when we back ourselves, but someone needs to build the framework to make it happen. New Zealand Initiative Chief Economist Dr Eric Crampton told Mike Hosking it's something New Zealand should be progressing with. He says we are too small to be stupid in this space, and need to enable innovation in new ways. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
IBEC's Economic Outlook reports that the impact of AI on the labour market is still not clear. But early signs show significant effects on trade and investment. It also suggests domestic demand growth of 3.3% for 2026, while inflation is expected to land around 3.5% for the year. Joe Lynam discusses this further with Gerard Brady, Chief Economist and Head of National Policy of IBEC.
There are hopes prices at the pump don't spike as fighting intensifies between the US and Iran. Strikes from both sides continue for the sixth day of renewed hostilities. The global oil price benchmark Brent Crude has been hovering around US$85 a barrel since the new fighting broke out – its highest point in a month. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge he's hopeful we don't see a return to the peaks of US$115 a barrel from when the war first broke out. He says we don't want to see diesel prices rise as that's used for all our delivery services. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
IBEC's Economic Outlook reports that the impact of AI on the labour market is still not clear. But early signs show significant effects on trade and investment. It also suggests domestic demand growth of 3.3% for 2026, while inflation is expected to land around 3.5% for the year. Joe Lynam discusses this further with Gerard Brady, Chief Economist and Head of National Policy of IBEC.
Stephanie Roth is the Chief Economist at Wolfe Research. In this conversation, we break down whether inflation has peaked, why tariffs, AI chip shortages, and the Iran war are driving short-term prices, and why consumers feel poor despite a resilient economy. We also cover trust in government data, incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, the 2026 IPO wave, and the bitcoin and gold debasement trade.==================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you'll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at http://fountainlife.com/pomp Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at https:www.http://fountainlife.com/pomp==================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy!==================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp==================0:00 - Intro1:03 - Has inflation peaked? Tariffs, AI & energy price drivers5:14 - Why consumers feel poor despite a strong economy7:43 - Can you trust government economic data?13:54 - Housing affordability & why NYC rent hit an all-time high17:43 - Return to office, commutes & worker productivity21:37 - Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed — what's changed?30:57 - Could the Fed cut rates to influence the 2026 election?35:42 - The mega IPO wave & the AI bubble question41:32 - What happened to the bitcoin & gold debasement trade?43:00 - What keeps a chief economist up at night?
There are significant regional differences in house prices, while housing affordability has improved and overall values remain high relative to incomes.
1 - George Bochetto, attorney and founding partner of Bochetto & Lentz, is here this afternoon. Why have the concrete barriers that protect bike lane drivers been ruled a safety hazard? What makes them an issue for non-bike riders? Will something be done about those riding e-bikes and scooters 25-30MPH alongside pedestrians? Will we see the Frank Rizzo statue emerge any time soon? 120 - How much of a Philly spectacle was the Homerun Derby last night? More on the killing in Roxborough and the involvement of Homeland Security in this case. Anti-ICE rhetoric has returned after a number of incidents in the past week. 135 - Chief Economist for the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies and the Richard Aster Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, EJ Antoni is here after inflation has been slashed! How has this happened? What can EJ tell us about the pop up gas stations offering slashed rates for regular? What other pertinent economic news is dominating the headlines? 150 - Why is Rep. Vince Hughes drawing Dom's ire today? 155 - Republican Candidate for NJ Senate Justin Murphy pops in this afternoon. What is the big reason that Jersey voters should go red in this election? Is there a pro-life lane in New Jersey? Is a more moderate approach or a more conservative approach the way to go? Did Jack Ciattarelli run a conservative enough campaign?
12 - Dom Time from the Capital One MLB All-Star Village this afternoon! Sunny Hostin doubles down on being stupid. 1210 - Side - all time sports moment 1215 - Are CNN viewers buying into the DSA? 1220 - Can we not have Barry Bonds on broadcasts? Were the boos from Phillies fans lat night right or wrong? Is Zohran Mamdani excusing rape? 1235 - PA State Senator Jarrett Coleman joins us today. Why wouldn't Senators talk about the vote beforehand? Was this really a win for Pennsylvanians? 1250 - This immigrant woman calls CNN to rip the DSA a new one. Are people going to be fooled by socialism? Your calls. 1 - George Bochetto, attorney and founding partner of Bochetto & Lentz, is here this afternoon. Why have the concrete barriers that protect bike lane drivers been ruled a safety hazard? What makes them an issue for non-bike riders? Will something be done about those riding e-bikes and scooters 25-30MPH alongside pedestrians? Will we see the Frank Rizzo statue emerge any time soon? 120 - How much of a Philly spectacle was the Homerun Derby last night? More on the killing in Roxborough and the involvement of Homeland Security in this case. Anti-ICE rhetoric has returned after a number of incidents in the past week. 135 - Chief Economist for the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies and the Richard Aster Fellow at the Heritage Foundation, EJ Antoni is here after inflation has been slashed! How has this happened? What can EJ tell us about the pop up gas stations offering slashed rates for regular? What other pertinent economic news is dominating the headlines? 150 - Why is Rep. Vince Hughes drawing Dom's ire today? 155 - Republican Candidate for NJ Senate Justin Murphy pops in this afternoon. What is the big reason that Jersey voters should go red in this election? Is there a pro-life lane in New Jersey? Is a more moderate approach or a more conservative approach the way to go? Did Jack Ciattarelli run a conservative enough campaign? 2 - Just how bad is the parking around here? What did Jennifer Welch think about Lindsey Graham? Should SCOTUS Justices have to wear bullet proof vests in everyday life? 205 - Have the communists successfully infiltrated the Democrat Party? Will any Democrats fight back? 210 - Is Will Ferrell over the hill in terms of his comedy? Will any hack sportswriters degrade Philadelphia for the fans last night? Your calls. 215 - Dom's Money Melody! 220 - Captain Sully, who famously landed a plane on the Hudson River, has been diagnosed with Alzheimer's. Dom pays his respects. 225 - More of your calls. 230 - Why do republicans have to run and fight back against Mamdani? Is this the winning strategy for the midterms? 235 - We revisit the comments on CNN made by Denise, who rails against the socialist candidate on their program. 240 - More calls. 250 - The Lightning Round!
US consumer prices declined in June for the first time in six years and a key gauge of underlying inflation was little changed, taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.Frances Donald, Chief Economist at RBC Capital Markets, reacts to June CPI.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Join the team behind the popular podcast Planet Money and celebrate the publication of their new book, Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life. Book author and longtime contributor Alex Mayyasi, Planet Money host Kenny Malone, and visual host Jack Corbett will bring Planet Money's signature brand of storytelling to the stage and discuss some highlights from the new book, including unlikely origin stories, revealing truths about human behavior, and insightful suggestions for navigating chaotic times drawn from the latest ideas in economics. Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, will be the special guest this evening. Come prepared to engage with the silly and the sublime and ask some questions of your favorite Planet Money hosts and reporters. Alex Mayyasi is a longtime contributor to Planet Money. Previously he was the founding editor of Gastro Obscura, which earned two James Beard Awards, and published a bestselling travel book, and was also a writer and editor at Priceonomics. His writing on business and economics has appeared in publications such as Smithsonian, the Washington Post, and The Atlantic. Mayyasi also consults for the University of Chicago economics department. He's the co-author of You Are Under Arrest for Masterminding the Egyptian Revolution (a Memoir). Kenny Malone is a cohost for NPR's Planet Money podcast. Before that, he was a reporter for WNYC's Only Human podcast. Before that, he was a reporter for Miami's WLRN. And before that, he was a reporter for his friend T.C.'s homemade newspaper, Neighborhood News. Malone's stories have investigated everything from abuse in Florida's assisted living facilities to health hackers building their own pancreas to the origins of seemingly made-up holidays like National Raisin Day. Or National Golf Day. Or National Splurge Day. His work has won the National Edward R. Murrow Award for Use of Sound, the National Headliner Award, the Scripps Howard Award, and the Bronze Third Coast Festival Award. He studied mathematics at Xavier University in Cincinnati and proudly hails from Meadville, PA, where the zipper was invented. Daryl Fairweather is the chief economist of Redfin and author of Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love, and Work. Her insights have been featured on 60 Minutes, CBS Evening News, as well as in the New York Times and Washington Post. Prior to joining Redfin she was a senior economist at Amazon working on problems related to employee engagement and managing a team of analysts. Jack Corbett is the visual host of Planet Money's TikTok account. Corbett shot NPR's first TikTok about the stock market circuit breaker. His reporting style became a perfect fit for the pandemic and the new short-form world order it has left in its wake. Since then, Planet Money TikTok's unique style and sensibility have garnered a devoted, loyal fanbase of young and diverse audiences. Almost four years later, the channel has amassed a large, devoted following of almost 800,000. His TikToks have received almost 15 million likes. In 2023, Corbett's work on Planet Money's TikTok won an Edward R. Murrow award and he's also been recognized by the White House Press Photographers Association. Corbett studied experimental cinema at Ohio State University and started at NPR in 2019 as an intern on the Music team. In his first few weeks, Corbett pitched a documentary to Jazz Night in America, which went on to premiere as part of the Sundance Film Festival in 2021. Corbett lives, breathes and makes bread in The City of Angels, Los Angeles, California. Buy the Book Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life Elliott Bay Book Company
On Episode 926 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to Varun Lohchab, Chief Research Officer–Equities at HDFC Securities as well as Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA.SHOW NOTES(00:00) Stories of the Day(01:09) The Markets Hold Their Ground Despite Renewed Fighting In West Asia(04:00) Asian Paints Raises Prices By A Surprising 12% In Sign Of Tail Order Impact(05:13) The SpaceX Stock Debacle, The Story Behind The Story(08:01) Retail Inflation Hits 4.8% As Impact Of Fuel Price Hikes, Food Kicks In(16:05) India's Exports Rose By 15.5 Per Cent To $40.41 Billion In June(17:55) Earnings Season Has Kicked Off, What Lies In Store?Check out our power tracker https://cleanpower.thecore.in/For more of our coverage check out thecore.inSubscribe to our NewsletterFollow us on:Twitter | Instagram | Linkedin | Youtube
En este episodio de la séptima temporada de Análisis BIVA, nos acompaña Enrique Covarrubias, Chief Economist and Head of Research at Actinver, quien nos habla sobre las perspectivas de crecimiento para México y la participación del capital privado y sectores estratégicos como motores del crecimiento. Conducido por María Ariza, Directora General de BIVA.
Tonight on America at Night with McGraw Milhaven: Joe Khalil, Senior Congressional Correspondent for NewsNation, joins the show with the latest breaking news from Capitol Hill, including developments involving Graham Platner and Senator Mitch McConnell. Khalil provides insight into the political implications and what the latest developments could mean in Washington. Paul Teller, President of Teller Strategies and former senior congressional aide, discusses why he believes it is time to strengthen American independence. Teller examines energy, economic, and national security policies that he argues are critical to ensuring the United States remains strong and self-reliant. Scott Colbert, Chief Economist and Director of Fixed Income Management for Commerce Trust, joins the program to break down the current state of the U.S. economy, offering insight into inflation, interest rates, consumer confidence, and what investors and families should expect in the months ahead. Plus, Bill Clevlen, founder of BillOnTheRoad.com, returns for the weekly travel segment, sharing unique destinations, hidden gems, and travel inspiration from across America. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
LPL's Chief Economist, Dr. Jeffrey Roach shares actionable insights on the global economy, underlying trends in the job market, and what the data tell us about the direction for inflation. Tracking: #1136959
A revamp of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge could tip the scales against interest-rate increases this year. The planned changes to the personal consumption expenditures price index would have likely lowered core inflation if they'd already been applied to the latest data.Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, reacts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The CSO released figures today showing that national inflation has fallen by 0.2% to a four-month low of 3.4%. However, prices in some sectors increased dramatically as items related to ‘recreation, sports, and culture' rose by 4.3% while ‘housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels' rose by 0.6%.Joining Shane to delve into the figures is Kate English, Chief Economist with Deloitte.
Huw Pill is one of just nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, the group responsible for setting UK interest rates – decisions that influence everything from mortgage costs to inflation.Born and raised in Cardiff, Huw is now the Bank of England's Chief Economist and Executive Director for Monetary Analysis and Research. In this episode, Fliss and James speak to him about his Welsh roots, his journey from Cardiff to one of the most influential economic roles in the country, and his views on the challenges and opportunities facing both the UK and Welsh economies.
Interview recorded - 7th of July, 2026On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Daniel Lacalle. Daniel Lacalle is the Chief Economist at Tressis, a professor of global economics, and the author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap.During our conversation we spoke about his overview on the economy, central banks hawkishness, strong economics, AI Bubble, Debt Crisis 2.0 and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:19 - Overview of economy and markets4:07 - Central Banks hawkishness5:39 - Strong economies11:22 - AI bubble?19:10 - Value investing22:59 - Thematic trends24:18 - Dollar strength27:01 - Warsh impact?30:07 - Debt access32:31 - Debt crisis 2.0?38:25 - One message to takeaway?Daniel Lacalle has a PhD in Economy and is a fund manager. He holds the CIIA financial analyst title, with a post graduate degree in IESE and a master's degree in economic investigation (UCV).On January 30th, Mr. Lacalle was mentioned in the US House of Representatives by Congressman Mr. Joe Wilson from South Carolina, citing his article Do Not Forget About Cuba.Mr. Lacalle has presented and given keynote speeches at the most prestigious forums globally, including the Federal Reserve in Houston, the Heritage Foundation in Washington, London School of Economics, Funds Society Forum in Miami, World Economic Forum, Forecast Summit in Peru, Mining Show in Dubai, Our Crowd in Jerusalem, Nordea Investor Summit in Oslo, and many others.Mr Lacalle has more than 24 years of experience in the energy and finance sectors, including experience in North Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. He is currently a fund manager overseeing equities, bonds and commodities. He was voted Top 3 Generalist and Number 1 Pan-European Buyside Individual in Oil & Gas in Thomson Reuters' Extel Survey in 2011, the leading survey among companies and financial institutions.Daniel Lacalle - Website - https://www.dlacalle.com/en/YouTube - @DanielLacalleOfficial X - https://x.com/dlacalle_IAWTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas
China cannot sell as much as it used to in the United States. That trade has to go somewhere, and somewhere might be Europe.In this week's VoxTalk, Tim Phillips asks Pol Antràs (Harvard) and Beata Javorcik (EBRD, Oxford) what this means for European producers and consumers.Antràs and Andrea Presbitero have mapped which countries and sectors face the sharpest competition from redirected Chinese exports, and which stand to gain. Does cheap Chinese tech ease Europe's energy cost crisis, or squeeze European manufacturers of wind turbines and electric cars?If Europe decides to take the gains where consumers and firms can get them, and compensate the producers who are legitimately hurt, how do they go about it? And can raising tariffs in a world of global value chains protecting one sector without damaging others?New episode, recorded at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum 2026 in Paris.The research behind this episode:Antràs, Pol, and Andrea F. Presbitero. 2026. "The Remains of the Trade: The U.S.-China Trade War and its Aftermath." Preliminary versionTo cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, Pol Antràs, and Beata Javorcik. 2026. "Europe in the Middle." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). About the guests:Pol Antras is Robert G. Ory Professor of Economics at Harvard University, a Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Research Affiliate at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. His research spans global value chains, the organisation of multinational firms, and, most recently, the intersection of trade policy and geopolitics.Beata Javorcik is Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, on leave from her position as Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford and Fellow of All Souls College. She is Director of the International Trade Programme at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Her research spans foreign direct investment, industrial policy, and, increasingly, the economics of geopolitical fragmentation.Research cited in this episode:The Great Reallocation is the term coined by Laura Alfaro and Davin Chor for the reorganisation of United States sourcing away from direct imports from China and toward alternative suppliers such as Vietnam, Mexico, and Taiwan. Antrà s and Presbitero's paper extends this idea to third countries, showing that Chinese exports displaced from the American market are increasingly landing in Europe and Asia rather than disappearing.Geopolitical externality is a concept developed by Laura Alfaro, Maggie Chen, and Beata Javorcik in their working paper "The Battle over Knowledge: Multinationals, Diffusion, and Governance." It describes how knowledge transferred abroad by multinational firms can strengthen a rival state's strategic capability in ways the firm never intended and the market never prices, which is why governments increasingly restrict flows of codified, tacit, and organisational knowledge that would once have passed unremarked.Voluntary export restraints were the mechanism used to defuse the United States' trade conflict with Japanese carmakers in the 1980s. Rather than imposing tariffs, Japan agreed to limit its car exports, and Japanese manufacturers responded by building plants directly in the United States. Javorcik cites this as the precedent for how the current standoff over Chinese electric vehicles and knowledge transfer might eventually be resolved.The Draghi report on European competitiveness, published by the European Commission in September 2024, recommended conditioning Chinese investment in the European electric vehicle sector on mandatory knowledge transfer. Javorcik notes the difficulty of calibrating such requirements: demand too little and Europe gains nothing from the technology; demand too much and Chinese investors have no reason to come at all."Industrial Policies for Multi-stage Production: The Battle for Battery-powered Vehicles," by Keith Head, Thierry Mayer, Marc Melitz, and Chenying Yang, models how tariffs and subsidies reshape the location of battery and vehicle assembly plants across a multi-stage supply chain. Antrà s cites the paper's finding that protecting the electric vehicle sector through tariffs can produce worse outcomes than the problem it was meant to solve.Export controls and innovation, discussed by Javorcik with reference to Chinese firms such as DeepSeek and Huawei, illustrate a pattern in which restricting a country's access to a technology, in this case advanced semiconductors, can accelerate that country's innovation in adjacent areas rather than simply constraining it. She draws a parallel with rare earth export restrictions, which have historically spurred substitute technologies rather than suppressing them.More VoxTalks Economics episodes:In a conversation recorded at the CEPR Annual Forum in Paris called "What should Europe do about Trump?" Tim Phillips spoke to Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Ugo Panizza of the Graduate Institute Geneva, about how Europe should respond to the second Trump administration's trade policies.Listeners interested in how firms navigate geopolitical trade disruption should also hear "Trading around geopolitics," in which Giancarlo Corsetti, Banu Demir, and Beata Javorcik discuss how Turkish exporters filled the gap left by sanctions on Russia.Related reading on VoxEU:"An update on the great reallocation in US supply chain trade" uses detailed United States import data through 2025 to track the scope and pace of the reallocation discussed in this episode."From tariffs to trade flows: Diversion effects and China's exports to the EU" examines the evidence for and against the trade deflection story that Antras and Javorcik discuss, and finds the picture more mixed than a simple diversion narrative suggests."China shock 2.0 and the euro area: Cheaper imports, tougher competition" decomposes the recent surge in Chinese exports to the euro area and argues that structural forces within China, rather than diversion from the American market, explain most of it."The impact of trade wars on firms in third countries" proposes a model of how bilateral trade shocks spill over to bystander economies, applying it to Italian firms during the 2018 to 2019 trade war.
It started with LBJ, and now welfare makes up over half of our National Spending. PLUS, Dr. Justin Mabie, author of the upcoming book Climate Change Deception: The Alarming Corruption of Science, tells Shaun about the corruption and Deep State schemes he discovered while working at NOAA, how easy it is for government agencies to start wheeling and dealing outside of taxpayer interests, and the importance of doing your own research and forming your own opinions. And Dr. EJ Antoni, Chief Economist at The Heritage Foundation, tells Shaun how Trump Accounts may be the cure for the socialism running rampant across the US by showing kids how capitalism makes your money grow and how we need to get back to the mindset of our Founders. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of Take-Away with Sam Oches, Sam talks with Chad Moutray, Senior Vice President of Research and Chief Economist for the National Restaurant Association, the largest trade organization representing restaurants in the U.S. Chad joined Sam at the National Restaurant Association Show to offer a mid-year review of the restaurant industry, diving into consumer behavior, economic factors impacting the industry, and how labor specifically is challenging operators' ability to grow.In this conversation, you'll find out why:In this K-shaped economy, the lower-income consumer is unpredictable A holistic approach to restaurant excellence is your best shot at beating the competitionLabor will continue to put the squeeze on the industry Technology can speed up and improve the hiring process This is a glass-half-full industry, and innovation is to thankRegister for CREATE here: https://informaconnect.com/create/ Have feedback or ideas for Take-Away? Email Sam at sam.oches@informa.com.
Conall McCoille, Chief Economist with Bank of Ireland, on the latest MyHome.ie housing report, showing 5% house price inflation nationwide.
ASB's latest outlook says New Zealand's economic recovery is back on track. Inflation is expected to hit 4.1% in Q2, but the bank says the overall economic picture as "markedly improved". ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Mike Hosking that, "We do think it will still be tight, but we do think that the Reserve Bank will lean on remaining on hold." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Episode recorded on 19 June 2026 at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum in Paris.Twice before, the world's savings and debts have piled up in the wrong places, and twice the imbalance broke something. The first time it took the Plaza Accord to fix it. The second time it took a global financial crisis.Now we are in a third wave. Gita Gopinath (Harvard, former IMF Chief Economist and First Deputy Managing Director) and Philip Lane (European Central Bank, CEPR) join Tim Phillips to ask what is different this time.Household and bank balance sheets are stronger than before 2008. But the fragility has moved to governments carrying much higher debt, and to non-bank financial institutions whose exposures and links to banks are only partly visible. Foreign investors hold US$40.7 trillion of US equities, 44% of world GDP outside the US, much of it riding on the AI boom.Lane's overriding principle: central banks can calm bond markets under stress, but they must be just as clear about what they will not do if debt is unsustainable.The research behind this episode:Bai, Chong-En, Gita Gopinath, Hélène Rey, and Axel Weber. 2026. "G7 Economists Memo on Global Imbalances." Prepared for the French Presidency of the G7, 28 March.The panel also draws on the fourth CEPR/Bruegel Paris Report, Paris Report 4: The New Global Imbalances, edited by Hélène Rey, Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (CEPR Press and Bruegel, 2026), free to download at cepr.org.Gopinath made the keynote presentation “The Third Wave: Addressing Global Imbalances” on 19 June at PSE.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, Gita Gopinath, and Philip Lane. 2026. "Addressing Global Imbalances." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). About the guestsGita Gopinath is the Gregory and Ania Coffey Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where her research spans international finance and macroeconomics, dollar dominance, exchange rates and sovereign debt. She was First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund from 2022 to 2025, and the Fund's Chief Economist from 2019 to 2022. Philip Lane is Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, and a Fellow of CEPR's International Macroeconomics and Finance programme. He was Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland from 2015 to 2019, and remains an honorary professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin, where his research covered financial globalisation and European monetary integration.Research cited in this episodeThe three waves of global imbalances. Gopinath frames today's imbalances as the third episode since the 1970s in which national savings and investment have pulled badly out of line, a framing she titled "The Third Wave" in her Atlanta Fed presentation. The first, in the early 1980s, produced the 1985 Plaza Accord, when the US and its G5 partners agreed to talk the dollar down after years of a strong currency and a widening trade deficit. The second built through the 2000s and unwound in the 2008 global financial crisis. In both, the US was the deficit country; the surplus moved from Japan to China.Foreign holdings of US equities. Gross foreign holdings of US equities stood at US$40.7 trillion, 44% of world GDP excluding the US (Gopinath 2026, citing US Treasury data). Gopinath's slides show 54% of gross foreign inflows into US government debt since 2007 and estimate that 61% of the deterioration in the US net international investment position since the global financial crisis has been driven by valuation effects rather than trade deficits.Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). Hedge funds, private credit funds, insurers and other institutions outside the regulated banking system now intermediate a large and growing share of global finance. Gopinath's slides show leveraged intermediation migrating from households and banks before the 2008 crisis toward government and non-bank financial institutions today, echoing the concerns set out in the G7 memo and the CEPR Paris Report.The 2020 "dash for cash." In March 2020, US Treasury yields rose sharply even as investors would normally be expected to flee to safety, a sign that market functioning, not just prices, can break down under stress. Gopinath cites the episode as evidence that hedge funds, now bigger players in Treasury market-making, can amplify rather than absorb shocks.ECB crisis tools: PEPP, OMT and TPI. Lane describes three instruments built since 2012 to separate monetary policy from market functioning: the Outright Monetary Transactions programme (2012), designed to backstop governments already in an ESM assistance programme; the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (2020), the ECB's flexible, country-varying response to Covid-19; and the Transmission Protection Instrument (2022), intended to calm unwarranted bond market panic without financing unsustainable debt.US federal debt and the fiscal deficit. Gopinath's slides put federal debt at 108% of GDP in 2025, up from 41% in 2007 and 39% in 2000 (source: Federal Reserve, FRED). In conversation she cites the US fiscal deficit at close to 7% of GDP, at a point in the cycle when the economy is strong. Note this is federal debt specifically; the G7 memo cites a broader measure, US general government debt, at around 120% of GDP, projected to reach around 140% by 2031. The two figures are not directly comparable and should not be conflated in the notes or on air.More VoxTalks Economics episodesThis episode sits alongside three earlier VoxTalks Economics conversations built around the CEPR/Bruegel Paris Report 4, The New Global Imbalances.Global Imbalances Redux, in which Maurice Obstfeld sets out the history of the three waves of imbalances and what today's policymakers can learn from how the first two were resolved.Rebalancing the Chinese Economy, in which Yiping Huang explains why decades of investment-led growth suppressed Chinese household consumption, and what it would take to reverse that.Stablecoins and Global Imbalances, in which Gilles Moec examines how dollar-backed stablecoins help fund the US deficit, and the regulatory gaps that leaves behind.Related reading on VoxEUWhy global imbalances matter again, and what to do about them, a VoxEU column drawn from Chapter 1 of Paris Report 4, setting out why imbalances have widened since 2018 and the risks of a disorderly unwind.Industrial policy, tariffs, and the return of global imbalances, which finds that tariffs are a weak tool for correcting current account imbalances and that industrial policy's effects run mainly through its impact on domestic saving and consumption.
Joining Africa Melane is Wandile Sihlobo, Agricultural Economist, Chief Economist of Agbiz, Presidential Envoy on Agriculture and Land, and Senior Research Fellow at Stellenbosch University. He unpacks why there may be less reason to panic about El Niño than many expect, what this means for farmers, consumers and food prices, and the factors that will determine whether South Africa can weather another challenging climate season. Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Hear key analysis on this morning's Jobs Report - and what it means for the Fed, rates, and markets - with CNBC's own Carl Quintanilla, Leslie Picker, and Michael Santoli alongside Rick Santelli, Goldman's Chief Economist, and JPMorgan Asset Management's Chief Strategist this hour. Plus: AI demand concerns growing - and taking down chip stocks in Asia... hear one industry analyst make the case for OpenAI and Anthropic to NOT join public markets. Elsewhere this hour: details on one BBQ item seeing record prices, and why Blue Owl shares are gaining in the early trade despite more redemptions from 2 private credit funds. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Investors weigh cooling rate pressures, AI investment and sector rotation. Torsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo, argues AI remains the biggest long-term risk to the economy while a softer jobs report eases pressure on the Fed. The show also examines what the data could mean for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and the path of interest rates. Brett Winton of ARK Venture Fund explores reports that the government could take a stake in OpenAI and discusses what greater public involvement would mean for the AI race. The episode also examines the political implications surrounding AI policy and regulation with CFR's Jonathan Hillman. Barbara Doran of BD8 Capital and Bob Elliott of Unlimited debate whether the market's rotation has staying power and where investors should position next. Plus, our Phil LeBeau breaks down the state of the electric vehicle market after Tesla's stock sold off following its latest delivery numbers. The episode closes with a look ahead at the next catalysts driving markets. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, brings us into the jobs report for the month of June with Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Jason Hartman discusses the enduring stability of income property as a premier asset class. He highlights updates to his Property Tracker software, which now integrates real-time inflation data and calculates suggested cash reserves to help investors manage risk. He critiques the reliability of official CPI figures, arguing that higher actual inflation creates significant wealth through inflation-induced debt destruction. Jason also shares a personal anecdote about shutting down his Bitcoin miners due to unprofitability, using the story to warn against over-diversification in unproven assets. He then welcomes Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, as he provides a comprehensive update on the current state of the U.S. housing market. Yun highlights a significant "slump" in home sales volume over the last four years, even as property prices remain at record highs due to an estimated shortage of four million homes. The discussion covers how high mortgage rates and tax policies like capital gains are freezing inventory by discouraging homeowners from moving. Despite these challenges, Yun remains optimistic, citing strong job growth and potential interest rate cuts driven by future technological productivity as catalysts for a multi-year market recovery. He concludes th at the market is finally turning a corner, with pent-up demand likely to drive increased activity through 2026. PropertyTracker.com http://empoweredinvestor.com/ Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 0:00 Bitcoin miners and focusing on making money 9:34 Upgrades to PropertyTracker software Laurence Yun interview 20:48 Update on the housing market 26:19 Rising house prices and the coming equilibrium 32:39 Job market and housing demand 40:25 Kevin Warsh and the economy 44:03 Capital gains tax and housing supply 50:29 Housing demand 54:32 The new housing bill 57:30 Market forecast _______________________________________________________________ Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class: Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com
The opponents of Missouri's Amendment 5 are spending big to lie to your face — and Marc Cox brought in the White House's own chief economist to take them apart point by point. Dr. Aaron Hedlund, Chief Economist for the White House Council of Economic Advisors and former Show-Me Institute contributor, joins the Marc Cox Morning Show one month out from the August 4th ballot to torch every misleading ad running against the income tax elimination measure. No, the sales tax will not automatically skyrocket to 15% — the legislature could already do that and never has. No, this does not strip taxpayers of protections — it actually adds constitutional revenue growth limits that trigger automatic income tax cuts. Yes, a Missouri family making $60,000 sees wages go up roughly $3,000 on top of keeping their income tax money. And for the retiree on a fixed income worried about sales tax creeping up — Dr. Hedlund points out that Social Security income tax exemptions would be constitutionally locked in, healthcare would become more affordable as Missouri attracts more providers, and nobody wants to retire in a state their kids and grandkids are fleeing for Texas, Tennessee, and Florida. Missouri has been bottom 10 in economic growth for 25 years. Amendment 5 is the off-ramp — and a yes vote on August 4th is the most consequential thing a Missouri conservative can do this election season. Hashtags: #MarcCoxMorningShow #DrAaronHedlund #WhiteHouseCouncilOfEconomicAdvisors #Amendment5Missouri #EliminateIncomeTax #MissouriVoters #VoteYesOn5 #MissouriEconomy #TaxCuts #NoIncomeTax #ShowMeInstitute #WorkingFamilies #MissouriJobs #August4thBallot #ConservativeMissouri #FixedIncome #RetireeRights #StLouis #971Talk #MarcCoxVoterGuide
Is a hike really the right move for the Reserve Bank? Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr, the lone voice calling for rate cuts last year, wants the cash rate to hold fast. Jarrod explains why he thinks the latest inflation spike is a reactive blip, and why the new Governor of the RBNZ may be under pressure to hike anyway. What’s the influence of the US Federal Reserve and other big central banks? What’s a weak Kiwi dollar doing for exporters, and how are election-year nerves affecting business decisions? Plus, how rising house prices made New Zealanders feel richer and spend more, and how flat property forecasts change how we see our wealth. For more places to follow Shared Lunch—check out http://linktr.ee/sharedlunch Sharesies Investment Management Limited is the issuer of the Sharesies KiwiSaver Scheme. The product disclosure statement (PDS) for the Sharesies KiwiSaver Scheme has been lodged, and may be viewed on the Disclose Register or on our documents page. Shared Lunch is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. It is not financial advice. Information provided is general only and current at the time it’s provided, and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. We do not provide recommendations and you should always read the disclosure documents available from the product issuer before making a financial decision. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions—including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers—can be found on our relevant Australian or NZ website. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. If you require financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial advisor. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Appearance on Shared Lunch is not an endorsement by Sharesies of the views of the presenters, guests, or the entities they represent. Their views are their own.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In this episode of the Everything Real Estate Podcast, host Jason Ostrowsky sits down with Dr. Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the National Association of REALTORS®, for an insightful discussion about the forces shaping today's housing market. Jason and Dr. Lautz explore some of the biggest questions facing today's real estate market, including: • What could happen if mortgage interest rates fall back into the 5% range? • Will lower rates unleash a wave of buyers waiting on the sidelines? • How could increased demand impact home prices and inventory? • What trends are emerging across the national and local housing market? • What buyers, sellers, homeowners, and real estate professionals should be watching over the coming months. Dr. Lautz combines data-driven analysis with practical insights to explain the current market in a way that's easy to understand, helping listeners make more informed real estate decisions.
Stephen Grootes speaks to Isaah Mhlanga, Chief Economist and Head of Research at RMB, about the sharp drop in fuel prices driven by lower global oil prices and a stronger rand, what’s behind the improved supply outlook following the US Iran agreement, and what this relief at the pumps means for inflation, consumer finances and the outlook for interest rates. In other interviews, Alan Mukoki, CEO of the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SACCI) talks about the economic impact of businesses scaling back operations or closing their doors amid today's national protest. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape. Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa Follow us on social media 702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702 CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
How are US consumers feeling as summer begins — and what should business leaders know about the growing economic impact of extreme heat? In this episode of C-Suite Perspectives, Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist and Leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board, is joined by Alex Heil, Senior Economist. They begin by examining the latest US Consumer Confidence Survey, discussing why confidence improved modestly in June, how consumers are thinking about inflation, interest rates, employment, and recession risks, and what those expectations could mean for spending in the months ahead. In the second half of the conversation, the focus shifts to one of the defining business challenges of our time: extreme heat. Alex explains how rising temperatures are affecting workers, productivity, energy systems, supply chains, and business operations around the world, while highlighting practical considerations for executives looking to build resilience. For more from The Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Forecast for the US Economy Global Economic Outlook
William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board. Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss: The "Fiscal Precipice" The "Crowd Out" Effect Social Drivers of Debt The "Undemocratic" Tax System The Social Security Countdown The Future of "Enhanced Labour" The Data Response Crisis Modernising Federal Statistics
For more than a year, alcohol sales in the on-premise (restaurants, bars, stadiums, and hotels) have outperformed sales in the off-premise (grocery, convenience, and liquor stores). On the surface, this trend contradicts many of our explanations for the industry's struggles. If people are broke, why are they spending money in the channel where alcohol costs the most? If people are spending more time alone, why are they drinking in venues driven by socialization? A mystery this big requires more intellectual firepower than RaboResearch alone can provide. So we invited two PhDs and an economist on the show to help us figure it out. Our guests: Bart Watson, President & CEO, Brewers Association Andrew Heritage, Chief Economist, Beer Institute Lester Jones, Chief Economist, National Beer Wholesalers Association Relevant time stamps: Why are on-premise sales outperforming off-premise sales? Round 1: 7:42 – The K-shaped economy is widening the gap between on-premise and off-premise sales: Middle/lower-income consumers feel squeezed and cut back more during at-home (off-premise) occasions, while protecting meaningful social occasions (on-premise). Higher-income consumers continue spending, widening the gap. 16:04 – Rising wealth is leading to an overall increase in on-premise spending: The US is getting richer over time; historically that drives more spending "away from home." As incomes rise, consumers shift toward experiences like bars/restaurants. 24:01 – Post-Covid socialization is normalizing: People want to reconnect after Covid. Younger consumers especially over-index in out-of-home alcohol spend, supporting on-premise demand through social experiences. 32:54 – Health and wellness trends are driving people to cut back on banal, at-home occasions: Consumers drink less overall, especially at home, but keep social drinking occasions. Alcohol becomes more "occasion-based," benefiting on-premise while hurting off-premise volumes. 42:02 – Inflation in the on-premise is massively outpacing off-premise: On-premise prices are rising faster than off-premise. Even if behavior doesn't change much, higher pricing inflates on-premise performance in dollar terms. Round 2: 45:18 – Travel and experiences are rebounding: Increased travel drives on-premise consumption (restaurants, bars, concessions). Social and vacation contexts strengthen on-premise relative to at-home drinking. 47:24 – The on-premise has more innovation, driving increases in productivity: Restaurants and bars have innovated (tech, formats, efficiency) post-Covid, improving service and experience. Better venues lead to stronger performance versus relatively static off-premise retail. 52:10 – There are more women in the workforce: More women in the workforce = more income + stronger social consumption patterns. Women may drink less, but have more money to spend per serving, suggesting they may be a driver of on-premise strength. 57:48 – Staying at home is more stimulating than it used to be: Consumers don't have to drink because they're bored. Competing activities (cannabis, online gaming, etc.) replace at-home drinking occasions – especially for younger males – more than on-premise drinking occasions. 1:03:02 – Several final factors may also be contributing to the on-premise performance gap: With the last pick of the draft, Bourcard mops up some of the final potential factors behind the on-premise performance gap, including young adults living with their parents, the decline of underage drinking, and GLP-1 drugs reducing the desire for casual drinking while leaving social occasions intact. Have a question, qualm, or story to tell? Reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are those of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates, and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services. Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.
In this edition, Dr. Jeffrey Roach, LPL Financial's Chief Economist explains why China is a factor behind volatility in oil prices and highlights the ongoing strength of the dollar and business capital spending. Tracking: #1130403
Shaun hit the Chi-raq-istan weekend violence on the head. PLUS, Colonel Rob Maness, author of What You Can Do About It: Taking Real Action Against Corruption, Radicalism, and Moral Decay to Save America, discusses the Democrat destruction to our systems, how the SAVE America Act would enforce confidence and guard rails back into our election system, and why certain GOP members are refusing to back it. And Dr. EJ Antoni, Chief Economist at The Heritage Foundation, talks about the tax burdens on people living in blue states, the decline of private job growth in Illinois, the death of Alan Greenspan, and his optimism about the new head of the Federal Reserve.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The China Shock of the 1990s and 2000s remains, even now, the subject of much debate. American consumers benefited from the cheaper goods that were imported from China. Some American businesses also benefited from importing cheaper equipment that was made in China. But other American businesses suffered from the competition, shuttering factories throughout the Rest Belt and South. How bad was it? What was the overall effect on workers? How did workers and communities adjust? Today's episode is about the lessons of that shock for what might end up being a brand new shock: the AI Shock. Economists and many others are trying to figure out what it's going to mean if AI itself ends up becoming a new source of competition for American businesses and American workers. One such economist is Adam Ozimek, Chief Economist at the Economic Innovation Group. Adam is the co-author of a new analysis about the right and wrong lessons to take from the China shock for the strange world that we now find ourselves in. (You can find that post at agglomerations.eig.org, EIG's newsletter.)Adam speaks with Cardiff about the similarities and differences between the workers and towns affected by the two shocks, which characteristics matter most for people and places to become resilient to large shocks, how to think about automation and the collection of tasks that make up a job, and much more. Related links: Agglomerations Messy Jobs, by Luis Garicano