Moving Parts Weekly Market Update

A LOT to cover this week! Malaysian Palm Oil Board report comes in bearish, we have a House version of the tax bill that includes changes to the 45Z AND we got the May WASDE from USDA on Monday.

2025 US planting is going strong and made good progress this past week. Also on this call: SBO stocks shenanigans, RVO rumors, and the latest updates in the trade wars

Today, the crew talks about the good start to US planting season, the big jump in SBO prices, the big plunge in wheat, and more…

US spring planting is off to a nice start and ahead of average pace. Tariffs are still a big story but a bit quieter this week as several big trading partners are negotiating new trade deals with the US.

The tariff excitement continues…reciprocal tariffs delayed 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate, USMCA goods in Canada and Mexico are off the hook, and things in China keep ramping up!

Tariffs, OPEC & Biofuels – Oh my! Plenty to talk about as reciprocal tariffs are set to go into effect this week, OPEC+ members are increasing oil supply, and the April WASDE comes out on Thursday

Liberation Day approaches! That is the name Trump has given to April 2, when his reciprocal tariff plans will go into place. Details remain elusive…We'll also discuss the USDA's Planting Intentions & March 1 Stocks Report that came out yesterday.

March 31 Reports! Next Monday the USDA will release their March 1 Stocks and Prospective Plantings report (either the 1st or 2nd in terms of most market volatility on report day of all the USDA's reports). Today we'll preview that report, as well as touch on the impact of US Port charges on Chinese-made vessels, the Fed meeting, and much more.

This week's NOPA crush report showed sharply lower crush rates than expected. Also, are peace talks on the table? Trump is set to call Putin this week, stay tuned…

The US tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been delayed, but Canada is in a trade war of its own with China! Meanwhile, it seems like everything was down yesterday amid recession and tariff uncertainty.

North American tariffs start TODAY. March 4 is the date that 25% on Mexican and Canadian imports are set to go into effect, with “reciprocal tariffs” set planned for April 2. We also saw USDA Crop Insurance prices set this week, and a HUGE USDA January Crush report.

The March 4 deadline for Canada and Mexico tariffs is fast approaching, will the 25% tariffs go into effect or be kicked further down the road? Meanwhile, South American weather is improving, and the USDA will release their first 2025/26 acreage projections later this week.

Reciprocal tariffs? POTUS has announced plans to equalize tariffs with all major trading partners. Meanwhile in South America, Brazilian corn planting has made a TON of progress this week…Argentina? Not so much.

The Trump Tariff train continues, as POTUS announced 25% tariffs on all imported steel and aluminum, which could lead to retaliatory tariffs by some of our trading partners. Weather-wise, Brazil remains a bit too wet and Argentina remains a bit too dry…the corn and soybeans need some help down there!

Trump tariffs 2.0! The Mexico and Canada tariffs were delayed for at least 30 days after negotiations yesterday, while tariffs with China and EU are still forthcoming. A lot of uncertainty remains, stay tuned!

Argentina cuts export taxes in a big bearish move for grains. And U.S. tariffs on Colombia? Not yet, as Trump once again uses his favorite bargaining chip.

The US dollar is back down after more moderate predictions for Trump's tariff plan, while the US Treasury finally issued preliminary guidance on 45Z Biofuel Tax Credit.

We had a big news week! Today we discuss Friday's USDA WASDE report, the Treasury's long-awaited guidance on 45Z tax credits, and the exploding prices in the SBO market.

USDA will release one of their biggest reports of the year this week with the January WASDE. Today we preview that report as well as discussing a soaring US dollar, weather in South America, and more.

Rain has picked up in South America since our initial dry fears…perhaps too much rain. We also discuss the strong US Ag exports this year, the strong USD, and what to look for heading into the new year.

This week we take a look at the NOPA crush report, wheat, dairy and the weekly look at weather.

The Palm market continues to go crazy, with soybean oil comparatively cheap. Outside of that, not a huge news week. We also discuss a strong USD, potential 45Z implications, and the December WASDE which comes out later this morning.

Specs are selling again! All major ag commodities in the US had net short positions through 11/26, while the Palm market is back up again. Weather in South America is looking great and production estimates are being raised.

More tariffs?? Today we talk about President-elect Trump's proposed 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports. Meanwhile, Soybean oil and Palm oil prices continued their plunge downward last week…have we hit the top?

Veg oil prices were back down this week after a BIG rally in previous weeks. China may have sent their first trade war strike, and conflict is heating up in Ukraine and Russia.

Happy Veterans Day. Today we discuss the USDA November WASDE results (and a bit of a soybean surprise), strong US exports, and a continuing veg oil rally.

ELECTION DAY! Today we preview a busy week ahead, discussing the potential Ag & Commodity implications of this presidential election (biofuels policy, tariffs, etc.), a Fed FOMC meeting (potential rate cut), and the USDA's November WASDE report.

Crude oil plunges as tensions ease up a bit in the Middle East, while US corn and soybean oil exports are looking SOLID.

US harvest is moving quickly; not quite at the record pace we thought, but still the fastest since 2012 and looking good. We're finally seeing some rains again across the great plains, as well as the dry areas of Brazil, with some more in the forecast.

Last week's October WASDE was free from any big surprises, but today we'll talk about harvest progress, more buying in the spec market, and fall weather finally showing up here in the US.

The US soybean harvest is nearly halfway done! The specs were back to buying last week, especially in the soy markets. Another hurricane heading towards Florida and we talk about it its potential impact on markets.

Everything was up last week! USDA's September Stocks report came out yesterday, the fourth & final quarterly stocks report for the spring planted crops, and all grains are looking bigger than last year. Today the crew talks about the Stocks report, potential strikes, weather uncertainty, and many other possible market movers as we continue through early harvest season.

Corn, wheat and the soy complex all rallied on Monday. The Fed made a BIG rate cut (50-basis points) last Wednesday and signaled more cuts to follow. US corn and soybean harvest is in full swing.

Today, we cover last week's unsurprising September WASDE, which was a bit bearish corn, and yesterday's NOPA Crush report, which was a bit disappointing. We also touch on this week's Fed meeting, the bullish spec market, and some escalation in the Russia/Ukraine conflict.

Today, we preview the USDA's September WASDE, which comes out this Thursday. It is the first report of the year with actual USDA personal “boots-on-the-ground”.  Crude oil has fallen back below $70 for the first time since January. And corn harvest has officially begun.

US corn harvest is underway. Energy prices fell again and erased all the gains for the year on weak Chinese demand and a planned OPEC production hike in October. China and Canada have entered a trade war, with Canadian tariffs on Chinese EV's, steel, and aluminum.

Last week's ProFarmer crop tour showed big corn numbers and even bigger soybean numbers. Looking at the economy, the US$ is in decline as the Fed looks poised to pivot course and cut rates at the next FOMC meeting on September 18th.

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour is underway across the US grain belt. This is a corn & soybean tour to estimate just how big, or small U.S. crops really are. Follow along by searching #pftour24 on X. The Canadian Railroad Strike continues and roughly 10,000 union workers will be locked out this week barring a last minute deal. 94% of Canadian grain moves by rail. Brace for impact!

The USDA's August WASDE report showed BIG grain crops, especially Soybeans. Uncertainty looms with several international conflicts brewing which may affect commodity markets going forward

Major selloffs in the equity markets are leading to talks of potential emergency rate cuts by the Fed. On the Ag side, many analysts continue to raise their crop estimates as yields are looking great for the grains. We'll be discussing the August 12 WASDE in the coming days as well.

Crops are still looking good, especially wheat which is signaling record yields in North Dakota. The crew discusses Friday's court ruling on Small Refinery Exemptions that sent soybean oil futures lower and more...

The speculator market has near record short positions across the major grain & oilseed markets. Crop conditions are still looking good for corn and soybeans after some milder weather recently.

All grains were down last week as corn and soybeans saw record shorts in the spec market. Crop conditions are still looking good as the eastern corn belt got some needed rains and the northern plains got a much needed break.

The Moving Parts crew discusses milder weather for the NW corn belt, improved crop conditions, and a big week of spec selling for everything except soybean oil

Big week of selling for most of the major crops last week. Today, the crew discusses Friday's USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports, the Cold Storage report, and continued wetness in the northern corn belt

Bill, Scott and Nate discuss the June 28 USDA report.

Crop conditions decline again, but still looking much better than last year. The team discusses the crazy amount of rain we've seen in the northwest growing region and previews this the June 28 USDA reports coming up on Friday

Crop conditions have deteriorated a bit, but still looking pretty good on average. Dave touches on last week's USDA June Supply & Demand report. Corn belt weather looks hotter and wetter for the next couple weeks which should help crop conditions.

The wheat market still seems to be leading the parade. The corn belt has plenty of moisture so bring on the heat! Jay updates dairy and Paige talks weather.

Planting appears to be about done, weather is still wet but the moisture is welcome. Jay talks about the exciting butter market and Scott updates us on wheat.

As May wraps up should we be concerned about planting progress? Wheat seems to be driving the markets right now, Scott discusses what is happening there.