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Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/47uuMdO Monday Market Update: Analyzing Housing, Jobs, and Fed Policies In this Monday edition of the Dividend Cafe, host David Bahnsen discusses the latest market movements, job figures, and housing market dynamics. He highlights the Fed's anticipated rate cut decisions, sector performances, and policy updates. Boson also provides insights into nominal GDP expectations and the impact of tariffs on various sectors. Listeners are encouraged to visit DividendCafe.com for detailed analyses and a philosophical discussion on the U.S. free market economy from last Friday's special edition. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 02:13 Market Recap and Insights 04:02 Public Policy Updates 05:58 Economic Indicators and Job Market 08:21 Housing Market Analysis 10:56 Federal Reserve and Interest Rates 12:25 Oil Market and Health Statistics 13:47 Closing Remarks and Special Mentions Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Lloyd is joined by Ahsan to unpack a complex summer in the transfer window for City. Plus a little look forward to what happens in January.
US equities were higher in uneventful Monday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq finishing up 25bps, 21bps, and 45bps respectively. Upside was limited and trading very rangebound, though the Nasdaq still set a fresh record close. Data from the NY Fed showed 1-year inflation expectations up 10bps m/m to 3.2%; noted job replacement/rehiring optimism lowest since June of 2013. Echostar finished up nearly 20% on a deal to sell AWS-4 and H-block spectrum licenses to SpaceX for around $17B in cash and stock.
The jobs market is starting to show signs of being in real trouble.August payrolls were a huge disappointment, coming in at a VERY weak 22k (vs expectations of 75k).And the June payrolls number was revised downwards to a LOSS of -13k jobs,. On top of that, this week's JOLTS data revealed that there are now *fewer* jobs openings than applicants, something we haven't seen since the early days of COVID.As the unemployment rate now rises to 4.3%, should we expect it to begin rising more aggressively from here as the economy continues to slow?Are we seeing the early warning signs that a recession lies ahead?Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss the odds, as well as the latest technical analysis for stocks, the ongoing breakout in gold & silver, the attractiveness of the oversold energy sector, prudent risk management best practices, and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this latest Market Recap.LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#labormarket #unemployment #recession _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Another terrible jobs number impacted the markets this week and one asset that's headed to the moon might be headed back to earth. What asset? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!
US equities were mostly higher for the holiday-shortened week, starting the new month on a risk-off note and by Friday paring back from Wednesday and Thursday strength. Treasuries firmed notably across the curve as expectations grew for more Fed cuts this year
US equities traded higher in Thursday afternoon trading, near their best levels. It was a fairly busy day of headlines and data, but the core market narratives remain mostly unchanged. Conversation around Fed independence remains an overhang, including today's report on DoJ investigation into Cook and Miran's potential move to Governor role while remaining on leave from CEA.
US equities were mixed in Wednesday afternoon trading, near worst levels. The biggest development for today has revolved around big tech strength on the back of the better-than-feared remedies out of the Google Search trial. Elsewhere, rate stabilization was a positive following all of the recent attention on the backup in global bond yields.
US equities were lower in Tuesday trading. Bond yield backup is an overhang as fiscal pressures and political instability remain front and center (globally), while there are also thoughts that the market has not sufficiently priced in Fed independence risk. August ISM manufacturing index of 48.7 was slightly below the 49.2 consensus.
Grab your coffee and join Megs & Jess for another episode where we recap Meg's latest market!JESS' NEW YOUTUBE CHANNEL!BERG BOX QUARTERLY!JOIN THE CROCHET BAES FACEBOOK GROUP!CROCHET BAES MERCH!SHUT UP & TAKE MY MONEY!FOLLOW OUR TIKTOK ACCOUNT!Got a question or comment? Send The Crochet Baes an email: thecrochetbaes@gmail.comFind Jessica & Berg's Nest Crochet online:-Website-TikTok-Instagram-Facebook-Email: bergsnestcrochet@gmail.comFind Megs & Megs Makes Crochet Online:-Etsy-TikTok-Link TreeThank you to Chan's Designs for creating The Crochet Baes beautiful logo!
How can a stock like Nvidia beat on the topline, beat on the bottom line, raise expectations and yet go lower impacting the rest of the market? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!
The Market saw a slight pullback this week as several headwinds came into focus: mixed takeaways from Nvidia earnings, looming H2 tariff pressures on corporate profits, concerns over Fed independence, and ongoing cooling labor market worries. Nvidia's Q2 earnings were the week's highlight, with results beating expectations and Q3 guidance above, though not by as much as hoped. Fed independence came under scrutiny after Trump fired Governor Cook over alleged mortgage fraud.
US equities were higher in Thursday trading as stocks ended near best levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 16bps, 32bps, and 53bps respectively. Q2 GDP was revised up to a 3.3% SAAR from the preliminary read of 3.0%, initial jobless claims printed at 229K, near the 228K consensus, and July pending-home sales were weaker against expectations for some firming. Treasury's $44B auction of 7-year notes tailed very slightly by 0.3bp. Nvidia beat and raised and continued to highlight strong demand for AI compute, but its Data Center segment came in light.
US equities were higher in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing up 32bps, 24bps, and 21bps respectively. Market was still in waiting mode for Nvidia results after the close and PCE inflation on Friday. NY Fed's Williams telling CNBC monetary policy is moderately restrictive and data could warrant a gradual reduction in rates. Treasury's auction of $70B in 5s saw a 0.7bp tail, though domestic demand was solid. Earnings results included some well-received prints out of the cloud software space and mixed takeaways surrounding the consumer-facing names.
US equities were higher in very quiet Tuesday trading as stocks ended near best levels. Big development today revolved around Trump's move to oust Fed Governor Cook in the wake of allegations of mortgage fraud. August consumer confidence slightly ahead.
US equities were mostly lower in very quiet Monday trading. There was nothing particularly incremental from a narrative perspective in the wake of the more dovish leaning remarks from Fed Chair Powell on Friday. In macro news, July new home sales printed at a 652K SAAR, just above consensus, though below June's upwardly revised 656K read, from 627K.
Jerome Powell just made his long-awaited speech at Jackson Hole and sent a strong signal the Fed will start cutting interest rates due to increasing concern over growing economic weakness.The markets, little surprise, took this as fantastic news and practically every asset class rose sharply in price.Is this sustainable?Assets, after all, are valued based on expected future earnings.If the economy is slowing, shouldn't that bring valuation multiples *down* not *up*?Lance Roberts and I discuss that in depth today, as well as where inflation, earnings estimates and the housing market are likely headed.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this new Market Recap.LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#federalreserve #interestrates #labormarket 0:00 - Jackson Hole Symposium and record August options expiration3:07 - Risks to earnings from recent economic data4:02 - Market reaction to Powell's speech, expectations of rate cuts11:45 - Steve Hanke's inflation outlook and quantity theory of money15:59 - Bond yields debate: Economic growth vs. tariff uncertainty19:59 - Money supply growth relative to GDP and inflation27:29 - Currency devaluation and wealth preservation strategies32:07 - Wealth gap and inflation's impact on asset owners vs. non-owners34:02 - Alternative 2008 scenario: Letting banks fail43:14 - Role of government in economic resets, infrastructure investment46:05 - Risks to earnings due to slowing economic activity56:19 - ETF flows: Retail buying vs. professional selling1:04:59 - Housing market correction and its economic impact1:11:30 - Demographic trends in housing: Boomer sell-offs1:13:48 - Recent trades and Simplevisor thematic models1:19:14 - Grace under pressure: Handling adversity in life and markets1:34:05 - Thoughtful Money Fall Conference announcement, October 18th_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Who knew Fed Chair Jay Powell was also a superstar gymnast? How so? TUNE IN TO FIND OUT!
US equities were mixed this week, as the S&P 500 edged out a slight gain to finish higher for a third-straight week, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq was lower for the first time in three weeks. Stocks and treasuries posted a sharp rally on Friday after Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech. Markets took the comments as cementing a September rate cut, with odds now over 90%, with 53 bps of cuts now priced in through year-end.
US equities were lower in Thursday trading, though off worst levels. August flash manufacturing PMI was well ahead of estimates, back in expansion territory after posting surprise increase, its best since May-22. Flash services PMI was also ahead, its best since Dec-24. However, tariffs pressured input prices higher, with manufacturing second-highest since Aug-22, while average prices charged highest since Aug-22.
Argus's global petrochemical consultants (Sarah Rae from London, Craig Barry from Houston, and Toon Shien Lee from Singapore), gathered to discuss the latest trends and key issues in the global ethylene market, as well as their market prospects for major economies in the coming years, ahead of the Argus Chemicals Forum on 22 September and EPCA on 23–25 October. Key topics in the podcast are: • Examining the reasons for the continued strength of ethylene prices in the US and its impact on exports. Will US ethane exports continue to rise? • Will the capacity rationalisations tighten the market balance and, in that case, will margins improve? • How are regional cracker expansions and trade dynamics influencing ethane demand, and what does this mean for the global industry?
US equities were mostly weaker in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones ending +4bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 24bps and 67bps respectively. The S&P posted its fourth straight decline, with big tech pullback in focus again. July FOMC minutes showed the majority of officials saw inflation risk outweighing employment risk, though largely seen as stale after July NFP. Retailer earnings the other big story, with takeaways mixed, somewhat idiosyncratic, but largely supporting broader consumer resiliency theme.
US equities were mostly lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended just off worst levels. S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted worst sessions since 1-Aug. Rotation was the big story on an otherwise quiet day with big tech/growth/momentum under pressure and acting as a broader market drag while select cyclical, value and rate-sensitive pockets of the market fared better.
US equities were little changed in uneventful Monday trading. Geopolitics dominated the headlines following last Friday's Trump-Putin summit. August's NAHB homebuilder sentiment index came in at 32, down from 33 in July and below consensus for 34.
Wall Street exists to sell us its products.And right now, retail investors are so greedy that they're buying whatever they can get their hands on.So this is a "bonanza" time for Wall Street, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, which is happily selling us all of the junk it ever wanted to unload.Prices may continue for a good while longer, but be warned, says Lance: history is clear that periods of indiscriminate buying like this always end in tears.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this weekly Market Recap.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #speculation #stocks 0:00 - Markets near all-time highs, ignoring economic slowdown1:56 - High speculation reminiscent of 1999 and 20213:22 - Concerns about young investors taking excessive risks6:26 - High valuations and narrow moats in new IPOs like FIG11:32 - Brent Johnson echoes correction risk by September18:44 - Earnings growth concentrated in tech and major banks21:26 - Tech earnings driven by capex, potential for crest28:23 - Record insider selling and $1.1T share buybacks in 202535:05 - Rotation into healthcare, Buffett's United Healthcare stake 48:14 - Simplevisor platform for DIY investors and managed portfolios58:44 - Retail sales data shows economic slowdown1:03:05 - Fed likely to cut rates in September, market expects three cuts1:16:22 - Life was hard historically, affluenza saps younger generations1:24:26 - Parents enabling affluenza, need to foster resilience1:37:34 - Risk of home price decline if supply glut hits market_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
US equities were higher again this week, with the S&P and Nasdaq finishing just below the record highs they hit earlier in the week. As widely expected, the White House announced another 90-day extension of China's tariff deadline, shifting it to early November. July CPI was expected to be the centerpiece of the week; Both headline and core measures printed in line with consensus, though takeaways flagged limited but evident tariff impacts to certain categories.
****For an academic understanding of cap rate movements, check out minute 17 from this video here: https://youtu.be/ueCl6Zyl16o