Podcasts about Global

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains that gains in the stock market are expanding to more sectors and why investors should position quickly.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the changing equity market leadership.It's Tuesday, June 30th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Something is happening in plain sight but still isn't fully appreciated by investors. The market's leadership is changing. And as usual, by the time everyone agrees that it's happening, the easier money will probably have already been made.Coming into this year, the primary differentiation to our view was that the economic and earnings outlook were much stronger than the consensus believed. That view was built around a few simple, but powerful ideas: easy comparisons after a three year rolling recession, lean cost structures, pent-up demand, fiscal support from capex incentives and tax cuts, deregulation for the banks, and a monetary backdrop that was increasingly supportive through the liquidity channel.Putting those together, the setup looked like a classic early cycle. Revenue growth returning on top of lean cost structures leads to strong operating leverage and well above trend earnings growth.Fast forward to today, and that's exactly what has happened. The median stock in the S&P 1500 is now growing earnings at a double-digit pace, the fastest since the post-COVID boom. Revenue growth has returned, with the median stock growing its top line by 7 percent. That is a rolling recovery showing up where many investors still aren't looking.For much of this year and particularly the past few months, most investors didn't want to hear that story. The Iran conflict pushed oil sharply higher. Rate-cut expectations turned into hike expectations. Faced with these headwinds, investors crowded back into the AI trade especially semiconductors and memory in particular. To be clear, the earnings revisions in semiconductors have been spectacular. The move wasn't irrational. But when something becomes the most owned, most loved, and most obvious area of the market, it becomes harder to surprise on the upside.That's where I think we are now. The hyperscalers have started to underperform, and that may be an early warning sign for semis, which are the key beneficiaries of the AI spending boom. Earnings revision breadth for semis is pressing against historical extremes. Again, this does not mean the AI cycle is over. But it does mean that the rate of change may be peaking, and when price momentum starts to fade in a crowded trade, it can lead to significant set-backs. It can also give other parts of the market room to breathe. In short, the broadening trade is back!The equal-weighted index and small caps are outperforming again. More importantly, the groups we have been recommending – Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Regional Banks – have already started to show relative strength over the past six weeks, even though positioning and sentiment remain neutral to negative. That's the kind of combination I like: better price action, improving earnings, and investors still skeptical.One reason I've been more constructive on the consumer than others is that I've also been more bearish on oil. That view was not dependent on a grand deal between the U.S. and Iran, although that obviously helps. The signals were already there. The Brent-WTI spread narrowed, and energy stocks began underperforming from the day the conflict started.The market was telling us something before the headlines confirmed it. And longer term, I think the conflict has put the world on notice: this choke point around the Strait of Hormuz must be solved. It's no longer a risk that the world is willing to tolerate. New routes, new supply, and new energy strategies are likely coming. Necessity is the mother of invention, and I would not underestimate the world's ability to adapt.A less problematic oil backdrop helps the broadening trade too. So does the Fed, at least on rates. The June FOMC meeting told us two things: forward guidance is going to be diminished, and the reaction function is now focused more squarely on inflation.My view is that falling energy prices, peaking tariff-related inflation, and contained services and housing inflation keep the Fed on hold rather than hiking this year. If that's right, lower than expected real rates could be a positive surprise for equities and another tailwind for the broadening of performance.The key variable to watch at this point is liquidity. This Fed is unlikely to be as proactive with balance sheet support, just as the real economy needs more capital for capex and the markets are dealing with more equity and credit supply. That's the near-term real risk, especially for popular momentum trades.Bottom line, the market may look choppy and even weak at the index level, over the next month, but the message underneath is improving. Earnings are broadening, oil is falling. The shift is already under way with crowded momentum trades wobbling, and the under-owned areas of the market starting to lead.Investors can either wait for it to become more certain – or position before it becomes obvious and fully priced.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Contributor Will Lovell joins Marshall to chat about fermenting lagers warm with the popular Weihenstephan yeast, and they review the results of an xBmt looking at warm fermentation with Imperial Yeast L13 Global in a Festbier. | Relevant Article | Fermentation Temperature: Imperial Yeast L13 Global In A Festbier xBmt | Support Brülosophy | Brülosophy merch is available - click here to see all we have to offer! Become a Brülosophy Patron today and be rewarded for your support! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Asma Khalid, co-host of the BBC's The Global Story, former NPR White House correspondent, talks about their new series looking at the way the US has shaped the world over its 250 years, plus being Muslim in America and the state of the American Dream. Photo: JERSEY CITY, NJ - JUNE 28: The Strawberry Moon rises behind the Statue of Liberty as the sun sets in New York City on June 28, 2026, as seen from Jersey City, New Jersey. (Photo by Gary Hershorn/Getty Images)   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A.M. Edition for June 29. Researchers find a new Chinese AI model is able to match the performance of Anthropic's Mythos, a development WSJ tech reporter Sam Schechner says is likely to pressure the White House in its overhaul of U.S. AI policy. Plus, we'll look at how your unsecured home devices like computers and digital photo frames are linked to major cyberattacks. And Venezuela desperately searches for some 50,000 people still believed missing after last week's earthquakes. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Europe's equity rally has surprised many investors. Our Europe Head of Research Product Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock discuss potential outcomes of the broadening market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Products here in Europe. Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist. Paul Walsh: And today, we're looking at whether European equities have more room to broaden – as markets assess the implications of a potential U.S.-Iran deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.It's Monday, June the 29th at 10am in London. Marina, it's always great having you on. And for our listeners out there, I think they'd be interested to hear that if we look at Europe's performance year-to-date, it's now on a par to the S&P. So, both indices are up somewhere between 7 and 8 percent year-to-date. So, Europe is starting to stage something of a comeback from the conflict lows. And so, what's driving this? And are we beginning to see inflows into Europe again? Marina Zavolock: So, I'm going to give a two-part answer to this. Firstly, Europe has a lot of the same exposure as the U.S., so that is part of the reason… I know that Europe has this kind of reputation for not having a lot of tech exposure; but we do have tech exposure… Paul Walsh: We do. Marina Zavolock: Not to the same degree as the U.S., but, let me just give you some numbers here. So, we have a number of sectors heavily exposed to the AI CapEx boom. These are led primarily by the semis sector in Europe, tech hardware, cap goods, and metals and mining; specifically, copper has a link to AI as well. And those sectors, let's say roughly they make up at this point about 15 percent weight of our index. And if you look at that year-to-date performance that's on par with the U.S., almost 90 percent of it is made up from these sectors.Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: So, these sectors have moved just as aggressively as many of the AI pockets within the U.S. That's the answer that's kind of similar to the U.S. The answer that's a bit different is that we get from time to time, over the years actually, but we had a very big one earlier this year. We get these waves of interest in Europe because investors start to think about diversification. So… Paul Walsh: That's right. The broadening. Marina Zavolock: Yes. So, they... And we've called for broadening recently on the back of this, Iran-U.S. MOU. But this broadening has other drivers as well. So when we felt this wave of interest in diversification, and we saw the flows coming into Europe earlier this year, the driver was initially because the Mag7 was kind of going choppy and sideways. So, that just drove diversification out of Mag7 and into equal-weighted S&P, but that also always benefits Europe. Or tends to benefit Europe. But also, we had this wave of interest in real assets earlier this year; and Europe has a higher share of real assets than the U.S. Now, at this moment, I am sensing that we are getting that pickup in broadening interest once again from my feedback with investors. You had this MOU, which was the initial trigger. You have oil prices, broadly, they're falling. That's helpful as well. But I think the biggest driver of what's driving this diversification interest at this moment is actually the volatility that we're seeing in the AI complex. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, what a lot of the feedback I'm getting these days from investors that are coming back to Europe after focusing primarily on the U.S. is, ‘Look, I have a lot of AI in my portfolio. I like my AI exposure. I'm not looking to get rid of it or to sell it, but incrementally, I'm a little bit worried about this volatility. And I'm looking to broaden my exposure. What do you like in Europe to help me diversify away from this kind of volatility that we're seeing now?' Paul Walsh: And I think that's a great segue, Marina, to my second question, because with Europe having really kept pace with the S&P year-to-date, the question that really is going to be asked is the sustainability of that relative performance. And when we think about a backdrop here in Europe of pretty low economic growth, the market continues to be worried about rate hikes given recent inflationary dynamics. And as you've articulated there, tech has played a very significant role here in Europe as well in terms of driving markets higher. So, you've alluded to it in a few of your comments already, but how sustainable do we see this as being? Marina Zavolock: It depends on AI, to be honest with you. So, if AI starts to really move up at an aggressive pace like it was earlier this year, then it's hard for Europe to outperform given our exposure. But if that starts to move up at a more moderate pace, Europe has a chance to do very well. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: I think there's a lot of misperceptions when it comes to European equities. And outside of AI, actually there's quite a lot of strength. So, misperception one, you've mentioned it, which is basically: Oh, look at our PMIs, look at our GDP growth. Why bother with European equities? I think this is maybe what some U.S. investors may think. But just like in the U.S., the equities market, and maybe even more so, the equities market in Europe – it is not the economy. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, we just published our global exposure guide over this past weekend, which Morgan Stanley has been running 29 iterations of this guide. Europe's exposure to Europe is pretty much at historical lows over decades. Europe's exposure to Europe as a percent of revenues is now 45 percent of revenues … Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: ... is European exposed. The rest is very global, including the U.S. Um, Europe, uh, Of that 45 percent domestic, a lot of that is banks, some defensive sectors. Only a very small sliver is actually consumer-oriented sectors that would see earnings downgrades on the back of ECB hiking, for example. So, I think people may also be surprised to know that consensus earnings growth for Europe this year is over 16 percent. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: It's really healthy. Paul Walsh: It's pretty healthy. Marina Zavolock: I know the U.S. is over 20, but Europe is over 16 percent. These kinds of ideas of, you know – we have a shortage of energy and therefore our earnings are going to be down – they're misperceptions. Because actually, as long as oil doesn't spike to, I don't know, [$]150. If it stays within a healthy range, call it [$]70 to 90, that's actually a very good environment for Europe because we have a lot of real assets. We have the banks which benefit from higher inflation because they trade on the steepness of the curve. And we have some AI exposure. If you add up those three things, which all benefit from inflation, that's 60 percent of our earnings pie.Paul Walsh: Right. Marina Zavolock: Hence, Europe's actually doing really well. And I'll just mention one other thing. Earlier this year, we broke out of a structural downtrend discount; that range that we were trading in versus the U.S. So, for almost 10 years, Europe's discount was just going wider and wider and wider and wider. And as of January 1st, this year, on a like-for-like basis, so sector neutral excluding Mag7, we broke out of that structural downtrend, and we keep seeing a narrowing. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: So, if you're going to broaden, it actually makes a lot of sense to look at Europe, where we have these discounts, and we have value, and we have growth. Paul Walsh: Yeah. So, the point there being the relative valuation discount of Europe to the U.S. has been actually closing a little bit more recently. Final question from my side. You have obviously recently refreshed your sector model. We have talked about the broadening in our conversation today. What are you advocating to your clients out there in terms of relative sector preferences? Marina Zavolock: Yeah. So, we run a data-driven model. Just briefly, we look at things like earnings revisions breadth – works really well as a leading indicator in Europe; a leading indicator for future earnings as well. Consensus price target revisions breadth, balance sheet measures. We look at a number of different things, AI exposure. And basically, I'll just give you the top sectors in our model now. Semis number one, metals and mining number two, led by copper. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: Banks number three. I think banks, for me, it's a key diversification play. Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: A big differentiator. And trading on 10 times PE with very high distributions, buybacks and dividends, low teens earnings growth upgrades. Front of the line on AI adoption and seeing that ROI coming through. Cap goods, number four, that's also led by AI exposure. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: And then I'll just mention lastly, utilities is an overweight as well. That's also a little bit AI linked, but very, very under-owned; lagging the trends we've seen in the U.S. And broader based in terms of the positives there because we also have this drive for renewables, which is coming back. Paul Walsh: Marina, always, we value your insights highly. Thanks as always for taking the time to talk. Marina Zavolock: Great speaking with you, Paul. Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And please do share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The United States has been a staunch ally of Israel for decades, and Americans used to be steadfast in their support for the country. But in recent years - and recent weeks - the special relationship between the two counties has come under fire.Several polls indicate that Americans have increasingly negative views of Israel and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. And as the midterms approach, support for Israel is on the ballot in some races. Asma briefs Tristan on shifting US public and political opinion on Israel. And Jon Donnison discusses how fluctuating US sentiment on Israel is affecting domestic Israeli politics.The Global Story brings clarity to politics, business and foreign policy in a time of connection and disruption. For more episodes, just search 'The Global Story' wherever you get your BBC Podcasts.

Geopolitical Competition in the New Space Race. Guest: Bob Zimmerman. Zimmerman continues his report by examining the strategic and military implications of the "new space race." He discusses the competition between global powers for dominance in the lunar and orbital domains, evaluating how technological breakthroughs in space travel are influencing international security and the long-term commercialization of the cosmos. 81905 SPRING STREET LA

The Distortions of Global Wealth Taxes. Guest: Veronique de Rugy. De Rugy discusses how the UK's tax system discourages international athletes from competing at Wimbledon by taxing their worldwide endorsements. She argues that oppressive global tax schemes, such as California's proposed billionaire tax, often result in reduced economic activity and lower wage growth for middle-class workers. 161350

Although markets may recalibrate to a different policy playbook under the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, housing could remain in a holding pattern. Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today, the glow has maybe worn off the championship of the Knicks, so we can talk about the impact of Warsh on the mortgage and housing market. It's Friday, June 26th at 10am in New York. James Egan: If we have to stop talking about the Knicks, we can stop talking about the Knicks. But Jay, I think one of the things, if we take a little bit of a step back in mortgage markets, in housing markets, in fixed income markets more broadly – from the beginning of the year to now, we've gone from the market pricing in 2.5 cuts from the Fed by the end of 2026, to the market pricing in roughly 1.5 hikes. 100 basis point difference in market expectations over the course of the past five and a half months. Now, that's happened at different times, with different levels of velocity and severity. But one of the key talking points we have now is – we have a new Fed chair. We had the first FOMC meeting and his press conference after that last Wednesday. What do you think that means for mortgage markets, for volatility? How are you thinking about this? Jay Bacow: look, Jim, it's a great question, and we've got asked that by a number of different investors. Chair Warsh has been pretty clear that he thinks people should do more of what they're good at and less of what they're not good at. And so, he's felt like the Fed should keep their communication on future guidance relatively short. And so, with less forward guidance from the Fed, the market has more uncertainty, and more uncertainty translates into more volatility. And more volatility is generally bad for the mortgage market, given that investors are short the option to the homeowner to refinance. Furthermore, shifting from expectations of the Fed cutting to expectations of the Fed hiking generally makes it a little bit less favorable environment for investors like banks and overseas investors to come to the mortgage market. James Egan: Alright. Now, we've been on this podcast several times this year where we've talked about, you mentioned banks... We've talked about deregulation. We've talked about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the GSEs – them buying mortgages, that being constructive for our mortgage view.Is that still the case, or how are you layering that into your thought process? Jay Bacow: now? That's definitely still the case. Those things haven't changed. The deregulation is still flowing through the markets. That longer term should be supportive of bank demand in aggregate, although obviously there are a number of different regulations going through. The GSEs are still forecasted to buy 200 billion mortgages on behalf of President Trump's initiative. So, that's why we're just sort of tactically negative – those technicals are very strong in an environment where there really has not been much supply. Now, some of that supply is because mortgage rates are still in the context of 6.5 percent. Some of that is because with mortgage rates at 6.5 percent, there hasn't been that much housing activity. So, Jim, turning it to you, what is the outlook for the housing market in a world where they are expecting the Fed to hike and rates to stay elevated? James Egan: Right. So, the main thing that we focus on from a housing market perspective is less specifically Fed action and more the 5- and 10-year part of the curve.So, when you start to say something like you're tactically negative mortgage-backed securities here – how can I interpret that from a mortgage rate perspective? Jay Bacow: If we're tactically negative, it's more of a small move than some massive move. And as you said, and we've talked about on this call beforehand, realistically, the mortgage rate is a little bit less dependent on the Fed policy rate and more around the belly of the Treasury curve. And, you know, what's going to happen with the belly of the Treasury curve is going to be dependent on sort of market expectations along with what's happening in the geopolitical situation. So realistically, if you've written down that the mortgage rate is 6.5 percent right now, our view probably doesn't change things too much. James Egan: And if that's the case, then affordability in the housing market, as we've been talking about, is going to continue to be challenged. And what we think that means from a housing activity perspective is any upside that we really thought would have been there gets pretty significantly capped. But the same side of this token – or the other side of this token, if you will, we do think that the current level is well-supported here. There's some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where affordability is, and we think we found that. We're at 40-year lows from a turnover perspective. From the fourth quarter of 2023 through now, we've been roughly at the same level. That's 11 consecutive quarters now. We think this is the kind of base level for people that need to transact regardless of where mortgage rates are. So, the more that the rate environment remains challenged, the more that we kind of hang in this low to mid 6 percent mortgage rate environment. We just think that that continues to curtail upside. So, it's a housing market and a housing activity space that continues to very much just remain stuck in neutral. Jay Bacow: Alright. So, if we're in this new environment and the Fed might be hiking, it's not great locally for mortgage valuations. Housing market more broadly, probably kind of stuck in neutral here. Jim, always a pleasure speaking with you. James Egan: And always great speaking to you too, Jay. And to all of our regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today. Jay Bacow: And go smash that subscribe button.

It's another episode at Joanne's and the heat is A LOT to cope with. Frankly, it doesn't matter if you're British or Irish, because what we all have in common is an unparalleled ability to talk about how hot it is. Beyond the weather, Vogue and Joanne are heading to Wimbledon next week and in THE SAME DAY, Joanne is off to see Harry Styles, which Vogue obviously can't get her head around... "TWO THINGS IN ONE DAY?!" All that, plus the hottest footballer on Earth and Joanne's new household obsession.My Therapist Ghosted Me is a Global Production.Tickets for Joanne's tour Pinotphile are now LIVE: www.joannemcnally.comIf you'd like to get in touch, you can send an email to hello@MTGMpod.comPlease review Global's Privacy Policy: https://global.com/legal/privacy-policy/For merch, tour dates and more visit: www.mytherapistghostedme.comThis episode contains explicit language and adult themes that may not be suitable for all listeners.

The world is in absolute chaos, and we are laying out the raw, unvarnished truth!

1: CHLOE CAILLET – Lemme Dance2: FASTER HORSES - The Only Girl3: BOURGEOUS - In Da Booth (Extended Mix)4: AGATINO ROMERO - Guaglione5: CLOONEE, NICE & SMOOTH - I Rhyme Quick (Extended Mix)6: SECONDCITY - I Wanna Feel - Paige Tomlinson remix7: NOIZU - Will We Ever Change (Extended Mix)8: BENLEH - Keep Going (Extended Mix) LISTENERS' CHOICE8:         Cirez D - Control Freak (Original Mix)  10: NICO DE ANDREA, AUSTIN MILLZ, PUBLIC ENEMY – Bring The Noise 202611: PARASHOOT - 1, 2, 3 (Extended Mix)12: CHANNEL TRES - Black Techno Guy13: FATBOY SLIM & RIVA STARR FT BEARDY MAN - Eat Sleep Rave Repeat (BLR Remix)  TRIED & TESTED14: EDD – Oh No Soho 15: JUSTIN JAY – With You16: BURNR x S3PPA – Gangster Violins17: DJ PLANET EXPRESS – Blind GUEST SELECTION:  ECHOSTORMS THE WARM UP SELECTION 18: HOT SINCE 82, SHADES OF RHYTHM - Shaded19: KILIMANJARO - Stumble20: SALUTE – Check Check21: ELLI ACULA - Take One Higher THE MAINSTAGE MIX  22: LUVSTRUCK VS AMEN & ALEX K – Angel In My Heart23: DJ KUBA & NEITAN – Feel The Extasy24: OXIA - Domino (Space 92 Extended Remix)25: BK - Full Fire (Extended Mix)26: SØNIN - Next To You (Extended Mix)27: RIVA & MAARTEN DE JONG - Stringer (Extended Mix)28: DJ TRY, PAGAN - Thinking Of You (Extended Mix)29: JOY KITIKONTI X SYGMA - Joyenergizer (Extended Mix)

Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore joins our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas to consider the consumer outlook and how it may impact the November midterm elections. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Michael Zezas: And I'm Mike Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research. Ariana Salvatore: Today, we'll be discussing the consumer outlook, policy catalysts, and what it could mean for the 2026 midterm elections. It's Thursday, June 25th at 9am in New York. Mike, you're on the road, obviously not in New York City this week. Why don't you tell us a little bit about the conference that you're at, and then we can get into some of the topics that have come up in your conversations. Michael Zezas: Yeah. I'm down in South Carolina at Morgan Stanley's Captains of the Consumer Industry Conference, where we put together investors and leadership of key consumer companies in the U.S. to learn about each other in a more informal way, brainstorm… And it's been really interesting. We've had a lot of meetings with leadership from different prominent consumer companies throughout the U.S. And it's been really fascinating to hear how the consumer's been quite resilient. But in general, one pattern that sticks out is rising concern about lower-income consumers' behavior starting to lag in meaningful way higher-income consumers' behavior. You're starting to see substitution and sort of more selectivity amongst lower-income households, a pattern that began a bit last year as a lot of these companies would report with higher tariffs. That seems to have continued with higher gas prices driven by the conflict in the Middle East. So, there's a lot of discussion and concern about how durable it is. And in particular, if there are some policy choices here that might alleviate some of that pressure and bring some fundamental strength to what is a challenged segment of the consumer market right now. Ariana Salvatore: Let's talk a little bit more about tariffs. It's our economists' view that we've mostly gotten through the tariff pass-through. Is that the sentiment that you're hearing from corporates and the clients that you're talking to? Michael Zezas: It is. Well, it's certainly the hope. And I guess the follow-up questions here are: once some of the temporary tariff authority that was put into place after the Supreme Court struck down the use of IEEPA, will there be a restoration of those tariff levels? And will the USMCA negotiations create higher tariffs? So, Ariana, what's your thoughts there? Is there any concern for companies that they're going to start needing to deal with a re-escalation of tariff costs relative to what we experienced, say, last year? Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, I think to answer that question, we need to dig into this under the surface a little bit and understand what types of tariffs that we're talking about. So, to your question on the USMCA, we see that largely as a story of continuity, right? So, the USMCA exemption has been in place since the deal was signed, right? And since Trumpimposed those Section 301 tariffs, we think that's likely to stay the case. That means the vast majority of the goods trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada is right now not subject to the 301 tariffs. Now, on the other hand, we have existing Section 232 tariffs in place on not just sectors like steel and aluminum, but a bunch of other goods, too, and we're supposed to get more of those investigations wrapped up in the next week or so. So, on that front, I do think there could be some potential room for escalation, but more broadly speaking, we think the direction of travel is relatively stable, if not slightly lower, because, as you mentioned, the IEEPA tariffs that were replaced by the Section 122s have to get replaced again end of July, right? So that Section 122 authority was a temporary authority. The president is going to have to replace that with a mix of Section 232 and 301. It's been our view that when that happens, there could be some alleviation for very specific pockets of goods that fall into really neither bucket, right? So,they're not necessarily critical for national security, and they're coming from countries that are difficult to maintain a Section 301 investigation on. So, it's actually very nuanced under the surface. I would say in the aggregate level, what we think is that you're going to see the tariff rate stay somewhere around 8 to 9 percent on a headline basis; if not directionally, maybe a little bit lower throughout the course of this year. Michael Zezas: Got it. And I think that message has been music to the ears of a lot of these companies. And I've been doing these meetings with our chief economist, Michael Gapen, who has said that that's contributing to what he forecasts as being a meaningfuldeceleration in inflation into the end of the year. Certainly an inflation level lower than what the aggregate Fed forecast isat the moment. Another question that comes up is whether or not the recent decrease in oil prices, which should feed through into lower gasoline prices, is durable. If that's something that could be counted on, because obviously these companies are thinking about it being a potential tailwind to demand going into the second half of the year. How do you think about that, Ariana? Ariana Salvatore: The MOU that the U.S. and Iran signed, I would say was a welcome development for markets. But that being said, there are a number of paths to re-escalation, in our view. Really four things to keep an eye on, kind of outstanding questions or uncertainties. The first is on execution risk of the MOU itself. It's very light on details. We need to see more about how exactly the Strait of Hormuz is going to reopen, if there's going to be a servicing fee, a tolling regime, et cetera. That was a red line of the United States. But again, implementation there is a big question. The second is on the calibration or divergence between the U.S. and Israel in terms of their objectives. We identified that early in the conflict as a potential indicator of how long this could possibly last, and I think it's equally as important in assessing how long the ceasefire or the MOU could stay in place. The third thing I would say we need to learn more about is the role of Congress in all of this. So, some Republican lawmakers actually pushed back against the MOU, saying it didn't go far enough to advance U.S. interests. Now Congress has a more limited role when it comes to the actual MOU implementation itself. Remember, the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear deal in 2015, didn't go through Congress either. But Congress can exert some more power come the fall when we start talking about defense appropriations, right? The Pentagon is asking for $1.5 trillion. [$]300 billion of that is supplemental war funding. And so, I think if you see Republicans push back, that's going to be an easy forum for them to do so. And the last point is on the negotiations themselves. So, the MOU is a 60-day ceasefire throughout which both parties are supposed to be discussing the nuclear question. Now, looking back at historical context here, the JCPOA took about 20 months to negotiate start to finish. This is a very compressed timeframe, and again, obviously potential risk for escalationas we see these negotiations go on the next few months. So, Mike, I would say, like I said before, markets are definitely seeing this as a welcome development, but that doesn't mean it's without execution risk. Across the board, our outlook actually expected a normalization of flows by the end of June, so we're kind of pulling things up by about two weeks. That means that the outlook basically remains intact, but with marginal upside as this is a slightly more constructive outlook. Michael Zezas: Got it. So net net, there's still plenty of execution risk going on, but the trend is at least towards easing of some of these policy pressures that have been impacting the consumer. And it's also been interesting that a lot of the conversations have led to questions about artificial intelligence. Now, at this conference last year, a lot of the discussion about artificial intelligence was around how these companies were implementing it to create new marketing opportunities, create efficiencies inside of their operations. This year, a lot of the discussion is actually about the macro trend around artificial intelligence, the acknowledgment of the industrial build-out around this new technology and how that is buoying investment and employment – and therefore consumption. And so, the policy concern or consideration from some of these companies is whether or not there are upcoming electoral issues, either in the midterms or in the next election cycle, that might change the dynamic around the AI industrial build-out. Are there signs that would show that a tougher regulatory regime? Data center construction bans that these things might take on a bipartisan flavor? And so right now, I think that's a very difficult question to answer. There is obviously some level of concern about if policy might change this dynamic around the AI industrial build-out that really has kind of helped the economy deal with some other external shocks from policy, namely what's going on in the Middle East and trade policy changes before that Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, to that point, this question around AI pushback, especially on data center build-out, has been a big theme in the elections. Thus far, it's really been dealt with on more of a state and local level. But our view is that it's been kind of bubbling up to the national level. Efforts there are nascent, but I don't think they're going away anytime soon. So obviously something that we're going to watch heading into November because it matters a lot for corporates and for investors alike. Mike, maybe we'll leave it there. Thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Michael Zezas: And thanks for taking the time to talk to me. Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Live from Amsterdam ahead of his performance at the Luminosity Beach Festival, Markus Schulz delivers the latest studio edition of Global DJ Broadcast. The show includes three Coldharbour world premieres from Elias Erium, Adina Butar and Mike EFEX; alongside a selection of trending favorites. Kyau & Albert return for the guestmix, providing a showcase of what's to come from their Euphonic label over the summer. The Long Weekend Mix series returns to GDJB next week, with Markus providing a journey set for Independence Day weekend.   The Essentials with Markus Schulz 01. Goodboys & Korolova - The Present 02. Charles D x TMPR x Inner City -  Good Life [In Bloom] 03. Corren Cavini - Lion's Head [Deeper Shades] 04. Joris Voorn x Funk D'Void - Diabla 05. Ezequiel Arias - Sin Control 06. Elias Erium - Raha 07. Gowzer - Drift Line 08. Paul Oakenfold x Markus Schulz x Grace - Not Over Yet 09. Rex Mundi - Bella Monaco [Hall of Fame] 10. Timmo - Echoes of You 11. Kryder - Ascension 12. Daniel Wanrooy - Burned 13. Basil O'Glue - Ask What You Can Do [Down the Rabbit Hole] 14. Above & Beyond - Major Drop 15. Mesh x Dan Stone - Purple Haze [A Moment of Sunrise] 16. Adina Butar - Another Dimension   Kyau & Albert 01. Boss Axis - Warriors 02. John Grand - Hyperstate 03. Peter Illias - Out of Our Lives 04. David Broaders - Shearwater 05. Ronski Speed - Melody Beneath 06. Kyau & Albert x Maywave - 1000 Years 07. Above & Beyond - Home (Kyau & Albert Remix)   The Final 30 17. ALPHA 9 - Dark Matter 18. Fictivision x Tasadi - Out of Orbit 19. Mike EFEX - Free Your Mind 20. Johan Gielen presents Airscape - Circles (Festival Mix) 21. The Thrillseekers - When Darkness Falls 22. Argy, Paul Oakenfold & Planet Perfecto Knights - ResuRection 23. Markus Schulz & Daxson - Reverence (Robert Nickson Remix) 24. Daxson - Shining Bright  

Join Darren Grimes as he dives into a mix of bizarre and thought-provoking topics, from alien sparkle species to Canadian political madness, and even the ethics of Amish refrigeration. Listeners will gain insights into current geopolitical tensions, internet conspiracies, and off-grid tech projects, all wrapped in Darren's unique style. Key topics: Encounters with alien sparkle species and their implications (timestamps 0:02–1:38) Discussion on the legality and nature of extraterrestrial beings (1:17–0:52) Insights into Canadian political scandals, including the Trudeau and Israel issues (7:17–13:29) Analysis of mass shootings, ideological manifestos, and their political contexts (13:29–14:53) Examination of AI systems used in military operations, specifically Israel's "Gospel" AI (33:31–34:26) Off-grid refrigeration tech with Amish-inspired propane solutions (59:08–66:35) Commentary on the deep state, election fraud, and geopolitical interference (16:41–19:29) Cultural commentary on entertainment, internet influencers, and conspiracy narratives (24:20–28:48) Final reflections on societal unrest, artificial intelligence, and future predictions (98:30–100:52)   To gain access to the second half of show and our Plus feed for audio and podcast please clink the link http://www.grimericaoutlawed.ca/support.   For second half of video (when applicable and audio) go to our Substack and Subscribe. https://grimericaoutlawed.substack.com/ or to our Locals  https://grimericaoutlawed.locals.com/ or Patreon https://www.patreon.com/grimericaoutlawed   Support the show directly: https://open.spotify.com/show/2punSyd9Cw76ZtvHxMKenI?si=ImKxfMHgQZ-oshl499O4dQ&nd=1&dlsi=4c25fa9c78674de3 Watch or Listen on Spotify https://www.simulationmaps.com/#products Disaster Maps, Volcano Sim, Asteroid Sim, Shipwreck Map, UFO Map etc https://grimericacbd.com/ CBD / THC Tinctures and Gummies https://grimerica.ca/support-2/ Our Adultbrain Audiobook Podcast and Website: www.adultbrain.ca Check out our next trip/conference/meetup - Contact at the Cabin www.contactatthecabin.com Join the chat / hangout with a bunch of fellow Grimericans  Https://t.me.grimerica grimerica.ca/chats   Discord Chats Darren's books www.acanadianshame.ca Sign up for our newsletter http://www.grimerica.ca/news InstaGRAM https://www.instagram.com/the_grimerica_show_podcast/  Purchase swag, with partial proceeds donated to the show www.grimerica.ca/swag ART - Napolean Duheme's site http://www.lostbreadcomic.com/  MUSIC Tru Northperception, Felix's Site sirfelix.bandcamp.com    For links to the stuff we talked about: https://x.com/DataRepublican/status/2069619851518431312?s=20 https://x.com/RadicalEyesUK/status/2069474083998195892?s=20 https://x.com/alx/status/2069209616429322342?s=20 https://x.com/Not_the_Bee/status/2069443300038205633?s=20 https://x.com/WarClandestine/status/2069204567032529216?s=20 https://x.com/mcafeenew/status/2069167529491108112?s=20 https://x.com/Asmon_Updates/status/2068913597351399451?s=20 https://x.com/MrPool_QQ/status/2069013211194560682?s=20 https://x.com/offgriddesigner/status/2068629295107293583?s=20 https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2068829255786803368?s=20 https://x.com/TheProjectUnity/status/2068804804919587113?s=20 https://x.com/WarClandestine/status/2067772077419966875?s=20 https://x.com/X22Report/status/2067968802973716959?s=20 https://x.com/warDaniel47/status/2067623357546471614?s=20 https://x.com/TheSCIF/status/2069888119415906418?s=20 https://x.com/tablesalt13/status/2069069914069934286?s=43%22%3Ehttps://x.com/tablesalt13/status/2069069914069934286?s=43%3C/a https://x.com/newstart_2024/status/2069160055262589017?s=43%22%3Ehttps://x.com/newstart_2024/status/2069160055262589017?s=43%3C/a https://x.com/mtracey/status/2069393158190821518?s=43%22%3Ehttps://x.com/mtracey/status/2069393158190821518?s=43%3C/a https://x.com/thedefiantghost/status/2069114286606098481?s=43%22%3Ehttps://x.com/thedefiantghost/status/2069114286606098481?s=43%3C/a https://x.com/basedtorba/status/2069250882039087158?s=43%22%3Ehttps://x.com/basedtorba/status/2069250882039087158?s=43%3C/a https://x.com/graffanati19/status/2069418479871021425?s=43%22%3Ehttps://x.com/graffanati19/status/2069418479871021425?s=43%3C/a https://x.com/holden_culotta/status/2069165919088046434?s=43%22%3Ehttps://x.com/holden_culotta/status/2069165919088046434?s=43%3C/a           Timestamps: 00:00 - Alien sparkle species and potential legal implications 01:17 - Live stream technical quirks and format issues 02:07 - Playback hesitation and censorship concerns 02:53 - Growing distrust in law enforcement and police presence debate 04:33 - Discussion on adopting African children and foster care ideas 06:38 - Building a content creation empire with foster kids 07:17 - Canadian political unrest and manifesto discussions 08:21 - Immigration facilitation debates in Canada 09:35 - Gun zones and violence narratives in Canada 10:13 - Montreal mass shooter manifesto breakdown 13:02 - Ideological diversity among mass shooters and political attacks 14:26 - Reflection on the Montreal shooter's intelligence and manifesto 15:21 - Sparkle aliens and election stealing allegations 16:41 - Unhinged election interference and QAnon origins 17:24 - Timeline of Q-stuff emergence 19:29 - U.S. license laws and ID questions 20:17 - AI voice technology and political messaging 24:20 - Conversations about conspiracy videos and their authenticity 33:31 - Israeli AI "Gospel" system and civilian harm concerns 36:17 - Global geopolitical initiatives and election influence 41:14 - Speculations on the current political system's authenticity 43:33 - Free speech issues and censorship in media 44:15 - Israel's targeted killings and collateral damage 54:29 - AI-generated political content and deepfake concerns 59:08 - Amish-inspired propane refrigeration projects 66:24 - DIY off-grid tech projects and energy solutions 79:29 - Shiny aliens and ancient astronaut theories 84:08 - Theories about Anunnaki and extraterrestrial survivors 87:10 - Societal manipulation and elite control narratives 90:21 - Beliefs about alien gods and human history 93:51 - Preparing for potential future cataclysms and geologic evidence 97:03 - Cultural reactions to societal collapse and unrest 100:00 - Final thoughts on societal, technological, and geopolitical challenges

On this week's Vogue & Amber: Vogue can't stop scrolling Bad Bunny and Spencer's caught her red-handed, Gigi's getting 12 hours sleep and still moaning, the internet's losing it over Spenny's tea cosy top, and a paediatric doctor's getting blocked for passive-aggressive DMs.Plus, a listener who kept a piss bin in her bedroom until a lad found it after a one-night stand, an AITA about a boyfriend who earns nearly double but won't budge on 50/50 rent and it's the final quiz and we have a victor!Vogue & Amber is a Global production, available every Tuesday and Thursday on Global Player, YouTube or wherever you get your shows. Make sure you subscribe so you never miss an episode.Watch us on YouTube! CLICK HERE! or search Vogue & AmberRemember, if you want to get involved you can:Email us at vogueandamberpod@global.com OR find us on socials @voguewilliams, @ambrerosolero @vogueandamberpod

What do you do when a brilliant, Oxford- or Cambridge-educated graduate walks into your office, chronically late, completely uncommitted to the business, but undeniably sharp? If you're Mike Harle, you don't fire them—you tell them to follow their heart and join the circus. This week, we sit down for an exclusive, world-first public interview with Mike Harle, the former UK Chief Marketing Officer of Shell. In a legendary two-minute conversation around the year 2000, Mike looked past the corporate KPI metrics of a young, nervous junior executive named Jimmy Carr and gave him the ultimate piece of career advice: Do give up your day job. In this episode, Mike shares the fascinating backstory behind one of comedy's most famous career pivots, why he turned down an exclusive UK deal with a struggling new startup called Red Bull, and what it truly means to manage potential over performance.

TODAY ON THE ROBERT SCOTT BELL SHOW: Fauci Subpoenaed, Andrew Chambers, Shonna Calica, Global Natural Health Solutions, Homeopathic Healing, Guarana Headache Remedy, Autism Rate Debate, Infant Mortality Questions, SNAP Soda Ruling, Dad Jokes Benefit, Zero-Sugar Gut Effects, Andy Wakefield, The Bequest, Autism Research and MORE! https://robertscottbell.com/rand-paul-subpoenas-fauci-dr-shonna-calica-dr-andrew-chambers-guarana-why-the-autism-surge-infant-mortality-down-child-transgender-surgery-guidance-zero-sugar-more-problems-andy-wakefield/ Purpose and Character The use of copyrighted material on the website is for non-commercial, educational purposes, and is intended to provide benefit to the public through information, critique, teaching, scholarship, or research. Nature of Copyrighted Material Weensure that the copyrighted material used is for supplementary and illustrative purposes and that it contributes significantly to the user's understanding of the content in a non-detrimental way to the commercial value of the original content. Amount and Substantiality Our website uses only the necessary amount of copyrighted material to achieve the intended purpose and does not substitute for the original market of the copyrighted works. Effect on Market Value The use of copyrighted material on our website does not in any way diminish or affect the market value of the original work. We believe that our use constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Law. If you believe that any content on the website violates your copyright, please contact us providing the necessary information, and we will take appropriate action to address your concern.

-- On the Show: -- A Pew Research Center poll shows global confidence in Donald Trump has fallen to 23%, dragging down international trust in the United States -- Donald Trump publicly celebrates the four-year anniversary of overturning Roe v. Wade, bragging about his judicial nominees -- The federal government installs physical fences around the reflecting pool after Trump claims vandals used knives to slice giant gashes in it -- Rumors circulate regarding Mitch McConnell after he disappeared into an undisclosed hospital for ten days to treat a medical condition -- Donald Trump speaks to reporters in Pennsylvania while struggling with a comically oversized umbrella that he ultimately abandons -- Donald Trump spekas in Pennsylvania, mocking transgender weightlifters and incorrectly claiming there are no female UFC fighters -- Donald Trump posts a series of highly disorganized rants on Truth Social, insulting political adversaries and claiming victory in Iran -- Reporting reveals that an unnamed 79-year-old man matching Trump's profile received access to an experimental weight-loss drug -- On the Bonus Show: The Senate votes to limit Trump's Iran powers, Mamdani's endorsements sweep their primaries, Trump has a new tactic to suppress the vote, and much more...

#874: The US stock market suffered a broad sell off led by tech and AI stocks. In NYC, a political race is underway where sweeping AI regulations are at stake.  Netflix launches a horror game that can be played on your TV. Finally, a special conversation with Meta's Chief Technology Officer Andrew Bosworth to discuss the launch of the Meta's new in-house smart glasses and why they think the specs will be an everyday AI device rather than a niche tech product.  To learn more visit https://www.servicenow.com Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note⁠⁠⁠  Watch Morning Brew Daily Here:⁠ ⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility. It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London. Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened. We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility. I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction. First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lower estimates are ultimately correct. Supporting our case, at least in our view, is that energy prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks since some of these Fed forecasts were set, as markets have moved to believe not only would existing oil production resume in the Persian Gulf, but Iran could increase exports materially under its new agreement with the United States. That would greatly reduce a source of underlying inflationary pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. With inflation set to come in lower than feared, we think the Fed's most natural option will be to remain on hold this year rather than raise rates. But if the Fed's not doing anything, how exactly is that going to drive volatility? Our answer to that question lies in another thing that it's not going to be doing – providing as much information about where it thinks monetary policy is going next. Indeed, since the financial crisis, the Fed often went out of its way to give so-called forward guidance and significant detail about when and how they may change policy in the future. Proponents saw this as a way to avoid surprises and smooth the transmission of this policy, but critics saw it as limiting and potentially giving markets a false sense of certainty. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is one of these critics and has promised to give a lot less forward guidance. That lack of handholding by the Fed about what they might do next is a big change. Coupled with the potential for a smaller Fed balance sheet and big questions around the path of inflation and the impact of AI and productivity, every data point now has more potential to shift the market's thinking. My strategy colleagues think that this will lead to higher volatility in two-year interest rates, as well as more volatility in currencies. I'd also note that here in the UK, this paradox is not nearly as puzzling. Here, the Bank of England's target rate has been the same level since mid-December. But that hasn't stopped the UK two-year bond yield from trading in an over 100 basis point range. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

The latest Federal Reserve policy shifts and rising geopolitical tensions are reshaping the financial landscape. With Jerome Powell exiting and Kevin Warsh signaling a tighter-lipped Fed, investors face renewed market uncertainty and an end to traditional forward guidance. This episode breaks down how the ongoing Iran conflict is dictating oil prices and the timeline for interest rate cuts, while exploring why the stock market continues to offer the best risk-to-reward ratio for capital deployment.The conversation also dives into the massive economic potential of advanced AI and robotics, analyzing predictions from industry leaders regarding the automated future of the global labor market. We evaluate the current hyper-supply phase of the real estate market cycle, the potential massive liquidity injection from the upcoming Crypto Clarity Act, and the exact $5 million financial milestone needed to achieve true freedom in today's economy.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDFederal Reserve policy changes and the elimination of forward guidance under Kevin Warsh.Geopolitical impacts of the 60-day MOU in the Iran conflict on global oil prices.Short-term stock market corrections and interest rate cut predictions for the coming year.Institutional investments, warm water cooling, and the bullish outlook for Nvidia.SpaceX IPO lockup periods and why short-term valuation pressures exist for early retail buyers.The integration of advanced humanoid robotics into global labor markets and factory infrastructure.The upcoming US House committee hearing on the Crypto Clarity Act and its potential market impact.Phase three and four of the Mueller real estate cycle and how to acquire undervalued commercial assets.Leveraging life insurance arbitrage to invest in real estate debt funds for positive yield.KEY TAKEAWAYSThe Federal Reserve's decision to drop forward guidance removes the market's reliance on predictable rate cuts, signaling a return to historically normal, higher interest rate environments.Global oil prices remain the primary linchpin for future interest rate decisions, as energy costs directly drive producer costs and broader inflation metrics.Advanced robotics and AI infrastructure are poised to offset massive global labor shortages, presenting one of the most lucrative long-term investment vectors of the next decade.The real estate market is currently navigating the hyper-supply and recession phases of its cycle, making this the ideal time for patient capital to acquire distressed assets before rate cuts occur.Achieving a liquid, risk-free baseline of $5 million in Treasury bills provides a mathematical guarantee of financial freedom, effectively covering lifestyle costs through pure interest yield.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONWealth Intelligence Brief: Text "WIB" to 844-447-1555 to get Matty's free macro data, real estate intel, and crypto signals delivered to your inbox 3 times a week.Imagos Income Fund: Text "INCOME" or "DEALS" to 844-447-1555 to learn more about Matty A's private debt fund targeting 10% fixed returns paid out monthly.

Manoj Pradhan returns to Top Traders Unplugged to explain why the forces that kept inflation and interest rates low for decades are now reversing. Drawing on themes from The Great Demographic Reversal and his new book The Unanchored Central Banker, he argues that aging populations, labor shortages, rising fiscal deficits, and the changing role of central banks are creating a very different macroeconomic landscape. The conversation explores why demographics matter more than many models assume, whether AI can offset labor shortages, and why central banks may increasingly be forced to choose between controlling inflation and maintaining fiscal stability.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.Follow Manoj on LinkedIn and Read his Book.Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Why demographics matter for inflation and central banks03:05 - The demographic sweet spot that lowered inflation and rates06:28 - Why labor supply is now reversing12:15 - Global birth rates and the replacement rate problem17:03 - The fiscal blind spot in conventional economic models20:31 - Housing, urbanization, and real interest rates27:03 - Can AI offset labor shortages?37:24 - Policy ideas to increase labor supply and manage aging45:40 - Why central banks may become “unanchored”50:40 - The tension between inflation control and debt stability54:49 - Could high rates trigger a crisis and force policy reversal?58:28 - Final thoughts on demographics, debt, and the future of inflationCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Global stock markets tumbled as investors worried that American interest rates might rise and that investment in AI will not generate the profits they expected. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Joanne watched a Marco Pierre White interview this week and she is obsessed. Fair play too, because it was bananas. Meanwhile, Vogue has been focussed on the Ariana Grande / Ethan Slater story which has apparently come to an end... What next for Ethan? Plus, a listener emails in about a man who looks like he'll never commit... Is that ok? You be the judge...My Therapist Ghosted Me is a Global Production.Tickets for Joanne's tour Pinotphile are now LIVE: www.joannemcnally.comIf you'd like to get in touch, you can send an email to hello@MTGMpod.comPlease review Global's Privacy Policy: https://global.com/legal/privacy-policy/For merch, tour dates and more visit: www.mytherapistghostedme.comThis episode contains explicit language and adult themes that may not be suitable for all listeners.

Join the Global Fresh Series as we follow the journey of apples across continents and discover how growers, importers, and retailers work together to ensure European consumers continue to enjoy premium apples long after the local season ends. We discuss the outlook for the overseas apple program, changing trade flows, growing demand for premium varieties such as Pink Lady® and Rosy Glow, and how retailers are navigating a balanced market with stable pricing and consistent quality. The episode also examines the increasing importance of global sourcing, supply chain coordination, and year-round availability in today's fresh produce industry.#freshappleimports #Europefreshapples #consumersapples #appleexpots

Announcing the CTP for SpaceX. MahJong Craze gone wild. Goodbye to Alan Greenspan – The Maestro. Have you seen RAM prices? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Announcing the CTP for SpaceX - MahJong Craze - Goodbye to Alan Greenspan - The Maestro - Have you seen RAM prices? Markets - Economic Collapse Imminent? - Breathe is narrowing again - chips chips chips are the only play - Spacex coming back down to earth? What is that sucking sound? -- Markets getting weird..... 3% down for NASDAQ 100 today - 8% for SMH and 14% for Memory ETF - Just announced - Alphabet (Google) will replace Verizon in DJIA DEDICATION: Alan Greenspan - Died Monday at age 100 Google Enters DJIA - High priced shares - Moves tech to 22% of DJIA from 17% or so - very meaningful move - Every $1 move for Google = $7 move on DJIA - Tech:  S&P 500 (~30%+), Nasdaq (~50%+) Computer Pricing - What as $2,000 a year ago for a nice desktop is not like $4,000 - Dell not holding pricing quotes - and even if they do, back ordered so prices could go up after order - Will IPOs put more money in the pocket of tech companies to buy gear at any price? Endless - SpaceX recently finalized two massive, multibillion-dollar artificial intelligence contracts: a $6.3 billion computing power agreement with Reflection AI and a $60 billion acquisition of the AI coding startup Cursor. - AI Compute Deal with Reflection AI - - - - The Terms: Reflection AI agreed to pay SpaceXAI $150 million per month from July 2026 through the end of 2029. - - -- - - The Infrastructure: The startup will tap into hardware and GB300 chips housed at SpaceX's Colossus 2 data center in Memphis, Tennessee. More SpaceX - SpaceX shares were as high as $220 post IPO. - Sharea ahve been down over the past 3 days. - Most that got in POST IPO probably bought in at about $162-$165 - Newsline: SpaceX shares slipped for a third straight day, shedding hundreds of billions of dollars in market value, after the company said it is selling investment-grade bonds for the first time. - The stock fell 16% Monday to close at $154.60, the lowest level since the company's first day of trading, pushing its three-day loss to 23% and erasing over $600 billion in value over that period. - SpaceX is seeking to raise at least $20 billion from the first bond offering to fund its artificial-intelligence ambitions. Missed Opportunity - Short the Mattress companies he said...... ----- Got squeezed out....Never to return Swing and a Miss Maybe Because this can happen... - Shares of Getty Images Holdings Inc. soared as much as 145% on Monday after it announced a licensing deal with OpenAI. - Getty said that images from its library will appear in the search and discovery features of ChatGPT, marking a key reversal for the firm. - The partnership with OpenAI could improve “licensing optics” and shift the narrative on the stock, according to analyst Mark Zgutowicz. - Getty shares were up 118% to $1.32 as of 12:44 p.m. in New York, putting them on track for the best session since July 2022. The stock had fallen about 55% this year to close at 61 cents on Thursday before the Juneteenth holiday weekend began. KOREA - SK Hynix - New #1 in South Korea: SK Hynix surpassed Samsung Electronics on Monday to become the country's most valuable listed company. - Remarkable turnaround: A striking reversal for a chipmaker that nearly collapsed under heavy debt roughly two decades ago. (CYCLES) - AI memory leader: Now the dominant supplier of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips powering AI systems. - Marquee customers: Key buyers include Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet's Google (GOOGL). - Massive 2026 rally: Shares are up more than 340% year-to-date, fueled by the global AI boom. - Market cap milestone: Valuation now exceeds both Samsung and Micron (MU). Markets Get Chopped - Questions being asked about if AI spend boom producing fast enough return - Back to earth on valuation scare - (all of a sudden?) - KOSPI down 11% - Chips getting hit - 12% for Memory ETF - MU down 9%, Intel 4%, ASML 7% RAM Prices... - Looking at some additional RAM today for some office computers .... --- ARE THEY KIDDING? RAM Prices Imminent Collapse???? - President Donald Trump said the prospect of global economic collapse was a big reason he signed an interim peace deal with Iran. - According to sources, the deal reopened the Strait of Hormuz and set in motion waivers for sanctions on Iran's oil sales to the international market, with the effect being an immediate drop in oil prices and a rise in US stocks. - The agreement has been seen as skewed in Iran's favor, giving the country broad gains before the next round of talks, and has prompted pushback and anger from Republican lawmakers. - MOU signed lat Wednesday - also now more waivers of sanctions on sale of Iranian oil - 60 day reprieve. China - Weak economic conditions - H Shares about to enter bear market - Hong Kong - Close to a technical bear market, dragged down by weak domestic consumption, a struggling property sector, and an exodus of funds fleeing "old tech" for AI plays elsewhere in Asia. - A-shares are listed in mainland China (Shanghai/Shenzhen) and primarily target domestic investors. H-shares are listed in Hong Kong and are freely available to international investors More China - Retail sales declined for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% from a year earlier. - China's urban fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% as of end-May, dragged by real estate and manufacturing. - Manufacturing fixed-asset investment contracted for the first time since December 2020. - Industrial output was the lone bright spot, rebounding from April's near three-year low. - The national unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in May, compared with 5.2% in April. Marrrr Jonggg - Mahjong can be highly addictive due to its rewarding blend of strategy, luck, and social interaction. The rapid tile-drawing, need for pattern recognition, and "just one more round" mentality trigger dopamine releases. If compulsive play disrupts your finances or daily life, it can become a behavioral addiction requiring intervention. - Tactile and Auditory Appeal: Many users on community forums like Reddit agree that the physical weight, texture, and distinct clinking sound of shuffling tiles provide soothing, sensory satisfaction. - There has been a 70% surge in mahjong content on TikTok in the past year - Yelp recently named the Chinese tile game a top trend of 2026, noting that searches for mahjong clubs surged 4,467% year over year for the period from September 2024 to August 2025 and that searches for mahjong lessons rose 819%. Alphabet - WHAT>????*&*^ - Alphabet shares slid 7%, on track for the search giant's worst day in a year. - Alphabet's Google has seen consecutive high-profile researchers leave in the last several days. - The company also has exposure to the market's concerns around commoditized AI and ballooning capital expenditures. - The share slide also came on the heels of a Sunday Wall Street Journal interview with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who called for less dependence on “AI Giants” and said the AI market was commoditized. Back to Oracle - Oracle reduced workforce by 21,000 employees over past twelve months. - Cuts broader than previously disclosed, driven by artificial intelligence adoption. - Global headcount fell from 162,000 to 141,000 full-time employees year-over-year. - Workforce reductions generated $1.8 billion in restructuring costs, company reported. - Company warned AI deployment may continue resulting in workforce reductions. NVDA - Underperforming - Nvidia shares slipping recently despite remaining up about 12% in 2026. - Stock down roughly 3% past month, underperforming semiconductor peers. - SMH ETF surged 84% year-to-date, gaining 15% last month. - Traders predict Nvidia chip pricing power is beginning to decline. - Wall Street focus shifting toward memory and infrastructure AI buildout. - Micron and Sandisk shares jumped nearly 60% over past month. Gloom and Doom - JCD sent interesting take from Chris Bloomstran - Traditionally asset light companies with all sorts of revenue, high margins now.... ---- Converting into asset heavy with no real understanding of what the profitability or even revue will be in the future ----- Here are the highlights of his commentary we can explre: ------------AI buildout shifting markets from asset-light toward capital-intensive infrastructure cycle - Hyperscaler capex surge reflects move into heavy, long-duration asset base - Massive capital requirements challenge economics versus prior asset-light models - Depreciation burden rising sharply as infrastructure scales across AI ecosystem - Returns depend on utilization of expensive, long-lived physical compute assets - Asset-heavy cycles historically lead to overbuild, weak returns, eventual consolidation - Infrastructure spending absorbing nearly all operating cash flow for hyperscalers - Off-balance-sheet financing masking true scale of capital intensity shift - AI economics hinge more on physical capacity than software-driven scalability - Echoes of past asset-heavy booms with eventual oversupply and value destruction Amazon Day - Today - June 26th - US consumers will spend $26.3 billion online at Amazon and other retailers during the four-day sale, up 9% from last year's event in July, according to Adobe Inc. - About 201 million Amazon shoppers in the US were Prime subscribers as of March, up about 3% from a year earlier - Amazon will capture about 60% of all US online spending during Prime Day, its highest market share since 2019, according to estimates from EMarketer Inc. Chevron and Microsoft - Chevron Corp signed 20-year deal with Microsoft for data center power. - Agreement supplies natural-gas fired generation for massive West Texas facility. - Project Kilby expected online 2028, ramping to 2.67 gigawatts. - Full output enough to power more than 530,000 Texas homes. - Chevron partnering Engine No. 1, final investment decision planned later. - Deal follows prior reports of exclusive long-term power negotiations. More Oil News - Drill baby Drill - Interior Department cutting federal drilling bonds by 95% to spur exploration. - Required bond drops from $500,000 to $25,000 for leases. - Bonds ensure cleanup costs don't fall on taxpayers if wells abandoned. - Policy change aims to encourage more oil and gas development. - Proposal subject to 60-day public comment after Federal Register publication. FedEx Earnings - FedEx posted strong fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Tuesday in the company's last quarter that included the freight business before its spin off. - FedEx Freight spun off into a separate publicly traded company on June 1. - The company said it saw a 3% year-over-year increase in domestic volume. - Stock down 6% A/H   Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); ANNOUNCING the THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Jun 23, 2026 – Global fintech expert Rich Turrin discusses the US government's ban on Anthropic's advanced AI models and its broader geopolitical impact. He explains how these restrictions disrupt global access, push international businesses...

Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-opperman-report--1198501/support.

Santhosh Srinivasan, VP of Treasury at Nium, joined us to discuss the firm's partnership with Coinbase to enable USDC payments for banks, fintechs, and enterprises worldwide.Topics:- Nium's partnership with Coinbase and Circle and enabling stablecoin payments - The future of payments with stablecoins and tokenized deposits - Institutions adopting stablecoins and cryptoBrought to you by

Carl von Clausewitz argued that the object of war is always the predetermined end state — not the battle itself. In the midst of peace negotiations with Iran, America has won militarily while fumbling the endgame: no regime change, no Strait of Hormuz renegotiation, no nuclear agreement, and a $300 billion rebuild check on the table. The same strategic clarity we demand of individuals has to govern superpowers — and right now, it doesn't. Unless negotiations take a different direction, what's happening in Iran is shaping up to be a complete national embarrassment.Connect with Stephen:Website: https://stephenmansfield.tv/Instagram: https://instagram.com/mansfieldwrites/X: https://twitter.com/MansfieldWrites

How is God using the biblical counseling movement across the world? Listen as Brad Hambrick and Matias Casco share about a biblical counseling conference and program offered for Spanish-speaking believers who want to walk alongside those who suffer. You have the opportunity to get involved by hosting the conference via simulcast at your church, so visit https://bradhambrick.com/stscounseling/ , and email seminarioteologicosantiago@gmail.com to receive updates and work toward becoming a host site for the conference happening August 21-22, 2026.Become a friend of the podcast by subscribing! Our subscribers are invited to quarterly zoom calls with the hosts, and they have exclusive access through Patreon messages which allows them to ask questions and make suggestions for episodes. Subscribers are also automatically entered into drawings for free books and resources given away by our sponsors.But most importantly, for just $3 a month you become part of the family of friends that keep the Counsel for Life podcast going! Your small membership fee helps to cover the production costs encountered by hosting a free podcast. Thank you for choosing to become a friend of the podcast we are glad you are here and are grateful for you!(Memberships automatically renew each month and can be cancelled at any time.)To learn more, visit our website: www.counselforlifepodcast.com

On the podcast: reaching brand-new audiences through web funnels, how they created their own ‘Big Mac index' for global pricing, and why monthly plans can beat annual for LTV.Top Takeaways:

The people running Western governments spent years telling citizens to accept: Mass immigration.Higher taxes.Less sovereignty.Less national identity.Now citizens across the West are responding with a simple word: No.

Free digital copy of his book: https://podcast.homefrontbrands.com/en-us/discernment  Sarah Luna built Club Pilates into one of the largest boutique fitness brands in the world - and now she's doing it again as CEO of Pilates Addiction, the fastest-growing Pilates franchise in America with 300+ territories across 27 states. In this episode, Sarah breaks down exactly what makes a fitness brand sticky, why community has to be intentional from day one, and how the discipline from her professional dance career translates directly into building a billion-dollar franchise system. We cover the real difference between franchising and independent business ownership (she watched both growing up - her mom was a Jazzercise franchisee, her dad a solo operator), why AI failed at the Pilates Addiction front desk, how GLP-1 weight loss drugs are actually sending new customers into boutique fitness studios, and what the gold reformer is all about. Sarah also shares her leadership philosophy - including why she gives every franchisee her personal cell phone number - and reveals the white-space business opportunity she'd pursue if she had to start something new tomorrow. Whether you're a fitness entrepreneur, franchise investor, or someone building a brand from scratch, this conversation is packed with tactical insight and hard-won wisdom from someone who has scaled two major fitness concepts from the ground up. Topics covered: • What makes boutique fitness brands sticky long-term • How to build real community (not just say the word) • Franchise vs. independent business ownership - a firsthand comparison • The professional dance career that built her leadership foundation • Why AI failed at the front desk and where it actually works • Pilates Addiction's growth model: 300+ territories, 20 openings per month • The Orum Reformer and why flexible real estate is a massive competitive advantage • GLP-1 drugs and their unexpected impact on fitness enrollment • Global expansion plans and why India may be first • Career advice: walking through doors before you know what's on the other side  HOMEFRONT BRANDS: https://www.homefrontbrands.com  JEFF DUDAN: https://www.jeffdudan.com  Guest: Sarah Luna Guest YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PilatesAddiction/videos  Guest Website: https://pilatesaddiction.com/  Guest Socials: https://www.instagram.com/popular/sarah-luna-pilates-addiction/  #PilatesAddiction #BoutiqueFitness #FranchiseBusiness #PilatesWorkout #FitnessEntrepreneur #FranchiseGrowth #SarahLuna #PilatesCommunity #FitnessIndustry #UnemployablePodcast Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

1. Strait of Hormuz Situation Iran claimed multiple times that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz. However, actual shipping traffic continued, including oil and LNG tankers. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) stated: Iran does not control the strait Passage remains open and monitored Data cited: ~55 merchant ships transit per day ~17 million barrels of oil moving through 2. Maritime Risk & Behavior Ships are: Turning off AIS tracking systems for safety Operating cautiously due to military tensions Traffic has: Fluctuated (e.g., 26 ships one day → 5 the next) Not returned to “normal pre-conflict levels” 3. U.S.–Iran Negotiations (MoU) A Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) has been signed: Covers nuclear issues, sanctions, and broader conflict Includes: Potential release of frozen Iranian funds Conditional progress requirements Key issue: Concern over how Iran will use funds Oversight mechanism proposed via Qatar Funds may be used for: Food purchases (e.g., American soybeans) 4. Nuclear Program Concerns Iran has: Agreed (in principle) to allow inspectors But: U.S. officials express skepticism Historical distrust is repeatedly emphasized 5. Economic Implications Oil prices: Declining (~$74/barrel) due to optimism Markets: Near record highs Strait stability is linked directly to: Global energy supply Economic stability Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast and Verdict with Ted Cruz Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A.M. Edition for June 23. Monday's tech-driven market slide is accelerating, prompted by concerns around Big Tech's AI spending plans and looming rate hikes. Plus, the Pentagon tries to drum up support on Capitol Hill for $80 billion more to fund the Iran war. And just a year after nine-figure compensation packages seemed to be fading, our annual CEO pay ranking shows the $100-million-plus salary is back with a bang. Luke Vargas hosts. Listen to all episodes in our series on ideas for fixing the housing crisis. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Of the millions of victims of the Black Death, one was a teenager named Joseph ben Meir Abulafia, who died of the plague in Toledo in 1349 alongside his new wife. His tombstone was inscribed as a conversation with the dead: "I am the man who has seen desolation and destruction, blood and pestilence. The days of my youth were cut short suddenly, in the prime of my life." His unnamed mother survived, left alone and childless, her days filled with "bitter weeping." That inscription is one of seventy-six medieval tombstones from Toledo's Jewish cemetery that preserve the most personal voices of history's deadliest pandemic, a catastrophe that killed an estimated 100 million people in six years and whose aftershocks lasted for centuries. Today's guest is Thomas Asbridge, author of The Black Death: A Global History of Humanity's Most Devastating Pandemic. We discuss how a minor Venetian merchant's business papers, preserved by his widow in a convent, reveal that the medieval trade networks which kept cities fed were also purpose-built to spread epidemic disease across thousands of miles. We look at why the Byzantine emperor wrote about his fourteen-year-old son's death with clinical detachment, how a Franciscan intellectual who had questioned whether other worlds existed died carrying holy water through plague-ravaged Messina, and why the only European king killed by the Black Death was besieging Gibraltar with dreams of marching to Jerusalem when the plague found his camp. The pandemic's most devastating long-term consequences were felt not in Europe but in the Muslim world, where the once-invincible Mamluk Empire was broken by recurrent outbreaks and eventually conquered by the Ottomans, and that this forgotten collapse may have been the true hinge point that set the West on its path to global dominance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

First-time homebuyers may get short windows of relief, but our co-head of Securitized Products Research James Egan and Senior Economist and Strategist in Morgan Stanley's Private Wealth Management Sarah Wolfe say the bigger story is a housing market resetting around a higher bar to entry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Egan: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jim Egan, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Housing Strategist and Co-Head of Securitized Products Strategy.Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, Senior Economist and Strategist within Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.James Egan: And today, why first-time homebuyers are facing a tougher path to ownership.It's Tuesday, June 23rd at 10am in New York.Buying a first-time home has always been a big step, but for a growing number of first-time buyers today, the goal can really seem insurmountable.Mortgage rates might be down from where they were in the second half of 2023, but they're significantly higher than they were for the several years before that. Monthly payments have roughly doubled for a median-priced home. And my colleague Jay Bacow and I have talked several times on this podcast about how many homeowners feel like they're locked into those lower rates.And they're staying put because they just don't want to give up a two or three-handle mortgage rate for something that has a six in front of it. But Sarah, as we know, this is bigger than just first-time buyers. Now, they often start the housing transaction chain, and when they can't buy, current owners may not be able to sell and trade up.That slows turnover across the market, and it also reduces activity tied to housing – from mortgages and renovations to moving and furniture. And it can keep would-be buyers renting for longer, which adds pressure to rental demand.So, how do you see this situation? Is this just another affordability squeeze, or has the housing market reset to a higher barrier to entry?Sarah Wolfe: I do think that we're on the upper bound of affordability pressures. This is about as bad as it's going to get. But as we discussed in our recent publication of The Economy Explained, unfortunately, we do think that the housing market is resetting at a structurally higher barrier to entry. There's a lot of reasons for that.The first is higher interest rates. Yes, mortgage rates are sitting around 6.5 percent, and they should come down from here, but maybe not better than 5.5 percent, right, in an optimistic scenario. The second is demographic pressures. Remember, we have this tremendous aging population of baby boomers. All of their children are now entering their prime home-buying years, so there's a lot of demand for ownership.The third and fourth ones are land regulation and permitting, which is at the state and local level, really hard to change. And the last one is climate risk. It's just raising insurance pricing and making it much more difficult to buy a home.So overall, we see a world where, yes, mortgage rates come down a bit, improve affordability marginally, but we think neutral and other interest rates at the longer end of the curve are going to be higher than the post-financial crisis period. And what we're going to see is that those forces are going to widen the divide between who can own a home and who cannot. And who gains from that wealth accumulation and who does not.James Egan: Right. So now, you mentioned where mortgage rates are today, above that 6 percent rate. Rates did briefly – in February, we got below 6 percent before they bounced back up here. Why did that short-lived relief matter so much?Sarah Wolfe: I think that short-lived relief showed us that moves in the mortgage rate make a difference, but things are so unaffordable that it didn't make that much of a difference.So, the dip below 6 percent was very exciting. It happened this past February. It was the first time that mortgage rates fell below 6 percent since 2022, and we saw a few things happen. First, it lowered the monthly payment for first-time homebuyers from about two point two thousand dollars a month to one point nine thousand.So makes a bit of a difference. And it lowered the share of income that goes towards monthly mortgage payments from about 26 percent of income to 22 percent, from peak to trough. So, that is a notable improvement. But what we saw in the new home sales data and the existing home sales data, that it did not drive people back into the housing market.I want to turn it back to you though, Jim, because you've actually done a lot of interesting work on this. And how this change in mortgage rates has changed the monthly cost that people have to pay for a median-priced home. Can you tell us a little bit more?James Egan: Sure. So, we talk about the lock-in effect a lot, and it's kind of easy to point to: Well, there are a lot of people with mortgage rates that are around 3 percent or 3.5 percent, and the prevailing rate's at 6 percent, and that's a lot higher, so they're locked in.But when we look at the actual numbers in terms of what we're asking a homeowner to do – to list their home for sale and move to another home today, pay off that existing mortgage, take out a new one. When you take into account how much higher home prices are today…You bought a home in 2016, for instance, right? Let's assume you refinanced in 2020 or 2021 if you still live there, right? Most homeowners did. So, you've actually taken your monthly payment, and it is lower today than it was when you bought your home in 2016. If we assume that your income has risen alongside just median household income over that time period, your monthly payment as a share of your income today is probably sub 8 percent.If you bought over the past three years, your monthly payment is a share of your income. You mentioned some numbers earlier. It's low to mid 20 percent. From a dollar amount perspective, if you were to pay off that 2016 mortgage, as an example, and take out one today, your payment is probably [$]13[00] or $1400 higher. It's like a 200 percent increase. That's very difficult economically for a lot of households, and that's the kind of physical manifestation of that lock-in effect.Now, Sarah, given this significant change in housing math, what does that mean for who is actually able to buy in this market?Sarah Wolfe: It's making who's able to buy into the market a lot more selective. So, what we're seeing is that first-time home buyers today are actually not meaningfully older. They're still about 36 years old, but they are a much more selective group financially. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York put out a great analysis on this recently, and they basically found that the first-time home buyer profile today is taking out a mortgage that's nearly $350,000, compared to $240,000 in 2019 and $200,000, a decade ago. So, significant increase in mortgage balances.At the same time, credit standards have tightened significantly, so that average credit score to get a mortgage has risen quite a bit over the last 5 to 10 years. And what this is doing is it's shifting who can buy and also where they can buy. So, we're seeing higher-quality home buyers moving to lower-income zip codes. So, buying cheaper homes in lower-income metro areas, and so it's wealthier buyers in lower-income areas.And that's the really big shift that we're seeing. It's a demand resorting story. And what we're also seeing, and we hear this a lot when we talk to our financial advisors and their clients, is that family is increasingly helping their other family members put that down payment down; in particular, parents helping their children buy that first home.So, we're seeing that first-time buyers may be feeling this pressure, right, when it comes to rates. How much of this affordability issue, though, is being driven by the locked-in effect specifically?James Egan: So, look, it's clearly playing a role. We just talked about some of the math behind that. But then when you look at what that means on a nationwide basis when it comes to inventory, when it comes to so many other aspects of this, that homeowner who's unwilling to give up that lower mortgage rate, that lower payment, right, their homes are off the market.Existing inventories for sale, they've picked up from historic lows in 2023, but they're still very, very low on a long-run basis. The fewer homes there are for sale, the more upward pressure or the absence of downward pressure that's going to put on home prices, right?We saw affordability plummet in 2022 and 2023 when rates backed up. We saw existing home sales really, really come down as a result. But home prices remained at record highs. They continued to set new record highs. For home prices to actually come down, right, you need people who are willing to sell at lower home prices.Sarah, you just mentioned that lending standards themselves remain tight.Sarah Wolfe: Mm-hmm.James Egan: Those forced sales, those tend to be distressed transactions. We don't see that distress in the market providing the inventory and the motivated inventory to lead to softer home prices. So, it's really that lack of inventory which we think is in large part driven by the lock-in effect that's kept home prices. And as a result, that piece of the affordability equation kind of stuck at these higher levels.Sarah Wolfe: I mean, it's really this vicious cycle, the locked-in effect making it difficult for entry-level buyers to get into the market – and then fewer existing homeowners sell or trade up or relocate. So, on and on it goes.Are there broader implications of this freeze?James Egan: Right. So, we just talked about what that means from an inventory perspective. And then if you think about affordability remaining challenged, lending standards themselves remaining tight, inventory remaining as low as it is, you could argue that we're at one of the more difficult times that we've seen for renters to exit rentership and step into homeownership.Now, there's a lot of different things that drive rent growth, and the fact that you have a stuck renter is just one of them. The other side of that equation can be the supply of rental units, right? So that's just a piece of the equation.But those are some of the externalities that we think about when it comes to how the tightness of the housing market – what the lock-in effect and what affordability is doing there. But outside of the housing market, Sarah, the wider economy, like how do these housing costs play a role there?Sarah Wolfe: Massive effect. Some of the work that we've done shows that housing affordability is the number one driver pushing down fertility rates in America. The number one driver. Above childcare costs, above finding a partner, finding a good job. It's housing affordability. So, you could see how that could pretty significantly ripple through the broader economy.But there's other components, right? So, as we discussed earlier, it's driving migration from unaffordable areas to more affordable regions. That has significant implications. And then putting my consumer economist hat on, as we discussed earlier in the podcast, when people buy a home, they tie themselves to that home. They spend money on couches, on beds, on TVs, right? Durable goods. And if we're going to have more people as renters for longer, that's going to expand the services economy at the expense of the goods economy.All right. Let's take a step back and think about where this is all going. It hasn't been a very optimistic conversation. Jim, what is the outlook for affordability in your view? Do we get anywhere back to the post-financial crisis period or even the pre-financial crisis period?James Egan: When it comes to the outlook for mortgage rates, the outlook for affordability, the outlook for the U.S. housing market – look, we just, throughout Morgan Stanley Research and Strategy, published our 2026 major outlook. From now through the end of 2027, we don't have conventional mortgage rates getting below 6 percent.We do have affordability improving on the margins. We have income growth exceeding home price appreciation that makes it a little bit better, but that doesn't get us back to the post-GFC affordability era, which was very, very affordable. Looking back over the past several decades, it gets us closer to where we were pre-GFC, not all the way back there.But when we think about how that ripples through the housing market and how we think about that evolving from here, look, we do think that the state of mortgage credit availability means there will be a lack of distress. We think that while affordability itself may be challenged and inventories may be low, there is some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where mortgage rates are or affordability is.We think we found that level. We think there's support for home sales at these current levels, and that combination of support for home sales, lack of inventory, means that home prices, very little room for them to grow from here. But we think they're going to be pretty supported.So, from a housing market perspective, at a ten-thousand-foot view, we're calling it 1-2 percent growth in sales, in home prices, well-supported. But the affordability outlook that we've outlined throughout this podcast – challenged to see a lot of acceleration.Now, when we pull it back to the first-time home buyer, based on our conversation, it seems that the key question is becoming less about when to buy, more about who can still afford to enter the market.But Sarah, it's really been great talking with you about the housing market today.Sarah Wolfe: It was great speaking with you, Jim.James Egan: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today. ***Sarah Wolfe is a member of Morgan Stanley's Wealth Management Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, her views are her own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Carl Quintanilla, David Faber and Sara Eisen covered all of the bases on the tech-fueled global market sell-off: South Korea's Kospi tumbled ten percent from a record closing high — as chipmakers Samsung and SK Hynix fell by double digits and weighed on shares of their U.S. counterparts; AI spending fears impact "Magnificent 7" stocks; SpaceX shares briefly fell below Friday's post-IPO opening price of $150. Also in focus: Oil prices fall to fresh March lows as U.S.-Iran talks continue, Apollo's private credit fund caps redemptions, Oracle job cuts update.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On this week's Vogue & Amber: Imo's back, Vogue is heading to Mykonos to eat nothing but octopus, gyros and feta, and Amber's off to Madrid with absolutely no interest in tourist attractions, just drag shows, pools, and gay bars.Plus, there's a Sideshow Bob plant that won't die, aggressive hymn singing, Vogue addresses the baby gender rumours after wearing pink to the baby shower, Molly Mae calling her baby Midas, Morrissey's unhinged hate list, a Cape Verde goalkeeper who gained 11 million followers in 90 minutes, and a listener going through her first ever breakup after 8 years.Vogue & Amber is a Global production, available every Tuesday and Thursday on Global Player, YouTube or wherever you get your shows. Make sure you subscribe so you never miss an episode.Watch us on Youtube! CLICK HERE! or search Vogue & AmberRemember, if you want to get involved you can:Email us at vogueandamberpod@global.com OR find us on socials @voguewilliams, @ambrerosolero @vogueandamberpod

Welcome to Truth, Lies and Work, the award-winning podcast where behavioural science meets workplace culture, brought to you by the HubSpot Podcast Network. In this episode of This Week in Work, Al is joined by guest co-host Dr Jake Tuber as they dig into a landmark report on youth unemployment, a blockbuster NYT piece on remote work and loneliness, and whether you should ever trust your gut over the data. Connect with Dr Jake Tuber: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jaketuber Subscribe to his newsletter: https://workwise.substack.com

The uniparty is in an absolute tailspin, and the full truth is dropping like a landslide!

The S and P 500 had a tech sell-off that began during the prior session picked up steam overnight, Global markets in Asia routed as memory chip-related shares tumbled, Check out recent Webinars with CFP Chad Burton of EP Wealth Advisors at Rob's website

Dr. Phil is heading to the Arctic — and it could change America's energy future forever. A team of American wildcatters just earned the rights to drill the first modern oil wells in Greenland's remote Jameson Land Basin — and they believe they're sitting on 13 billion barrels of untapped oil. Dr. Phil is going there to see it happen. This isn't just an adventure. It's a front-row seat to history. Global oil reserves are at their lowest point in decades — and the clock is ticking. In this episode, Dr. Phil sits down with Robert Price, CEO, and Larry G. Swets, Jr., Executive Chairman of Greenland Energy. Ice. Oil. High stakes. No guarantees. This episode is made possible with the support of our sponsors.Sponsored by HighLevel: If you own a small business, don't skip this. Reclaim your life. Automate your business. Transform your overwhelmed business into an automated powerhouse in just minutes. Summer of AI Is Here! Get 5 FREE AI Tools All Summer Long. Visit: https://DrPhil.com/Business and get your life back on track.Sponsored by: Get up to $20,000 in FREE Gold & Silver with a qualified purchase. Text ASKPHIL to 50505 or visit https://DrPhilgold.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

ITU: Ready to break through your biggest business bottleneck? Apply to work with me 1:1 - https://impacttheory.co/SCALESign up for my next FREE A.I. class here: https://tombilyeu.com/leverage-ai-july-9?utm_campaign=ai-masterclass&utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_content=post-260407-1Welcome back to Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu with Producer/Cohost Drew and channel Moderator, Ryan. In today's episode, Tom dives into a whirlwind of global events and economic shake-ups. From chaotic Iranian negotiations that seesawed all weekend, to Israel's hardline stance in Lebanon, the rise of the right in South America, and Xi Jinping's crackdown on dissent—even for those outside China—they unpacks the truth behind the headlines.Tom questions the sustainability of current political strategies, analyzes the never-ending economic debates around inflation, government spending, and student loans, and dissects the cultural roots of conflict in the Middle East.Expect candid commentary on populism in the UK, why America is so deeply tied to Israel, and a powerful conversation about personal responsibility in the age of AI and social change. If you're seeking bold perspectives on the forces shaping our world, this episode delivers unfiltered insight and actionable wisdom.Chapters:00:00 Online behavior vs real-life actions05:19 Iran nuclear inspection agreement13:18 Political upheaval and global tensions16:09 Progress on Middle East Peace Talks23:52 Grappling with extreme defense strategies27:05 How lobbying influences politicians34:26 Iran-Israel tensions and conflict38:52 Cultural responses to conflict42:35 Brexit, migration, and labor dynamics47:13 Economic growth and deregulation discussion54:25 Reflecting on Personal Challenges58:30 Discussing wealth tax impacts01:07:12 Student loan debt and consequences01:10:22 Discussing student loan discipline01:17:46 Student loan forgiveness debate01:23:32 Innovations changing survival challenges01:24:37 Devotion and service in religion01:34:12 Overcoming obstacles with small steps01:35:38 Struggling with AI advancementsSponsors: Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderPaleovalley: 30 for $36 https://bit.ly/PaleovalleyITOpusClip: Explore Agent Opus at https://agent.opus.pro/exploreIncogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impactTruemed: Check your eligibility and start saving at https://truemed.com/impactEthos: Get a free quote at https://ethos.com/impactQuo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impactNetsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/TheoryPique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impactShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reacts to Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting, explaining why the new chair's credibility may require letting markets experience some short-term pain.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing my views on the New Fed Chair and how to interpret his FOMC meeting last week.It's Monday, June 22nd at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it.I want to spend today on what I think was one of the more important market events of the year so far. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as the Chair. Specifically, he is trying to fortify credibility at a very delicate moment. The economy is stronger than many expected. Inflation is still running above target. And markets have become accustomed to central banks telling them exactly what to think.Back in February, when Warsh was nominated, I argued that this was the right choice if the goal was to lift market credibility. At that time, precious metals were rising parabolically. To me that was a bad signal that markets were questioning whether policy makers could really run the economy hot without creating a disorderly move in the dollar or a broader inflation problem.Since Warsh's nomination, the S&P 500-to-gold ratio is up close to 40 percent, and I view that as a powerful vote of confidence from the markets. It suggests investors are giving Warsh the benefit of the doubt – that he can shake up the Fed, reduce reliance on the balance sheet as a policy tool, and solidify discipline that gives the administration some breathing room.But here's the catch. Enhancing credibility is not always painless. In fact, credibility must be earned by doing something markets don't immediately like. And last week had some of that flavor. Stocks weakened, the yield curve bear-flattened, the dollar strengthened, and precious metals sold off. From my perspective, that is not a failed first meeting. That is a good and necessary first step. What stood out to me most was Warsh's emphasis on the inflation mandate. He made it very clear that the Fed's primary responsibility is price stability – not managing every wiggle in the labor market, not smoothing every risk asset drawdown, and not hand-holding investors through every data point. And frankly, after five years of missing the inflation target, that message was overdue.The stronger economy and improving private payroll data give the Fed room to lean into that message. I don't think this means the Fed is about to hike rates immediately, or even necessarily this year. But it does mean the reaction function has changed, and markets do not like uncertainty around the Fed path.The other major shift was communication. Warsh appears to be moving away from excessive forward guidance, and I think that's a very healthy development. For years, I've argued that the Fed became too influential in shaping not only market behavior, but also how investors interpreted the data. When markets are only trying to guess what the Fed will say next, the Fed loses the value of market prices as an independent signal. That's backwards. Markets should be reacting to incoming information, and the Fed should be learning from those reactions – not vice versa.A little less Fed hand-holding may be uncomfortable, but ironically it is necessary to get to a more stable place. Investors may not like it in the short term, but the system works better when market prices are less impeded by policy manipulation. The wisdom of crowds is often better than the wisdom of committees.The near-term risk for equities is not rate hikes or even uncertainty. It's liquidity. Balance sheet support has already started to fade. The Reserve Management Program is down roughly 75 percent from its peak, Treasury buybacks have been reduced by 50 percent. And at the same time lending growth is accelerating because the real economy is using more capital. That combination means liquidity is tightening, and our work suggests that could remain a headwind for stocks into July.Bottom line, the market may test Warsh's resolve. That's what markets do. The key question is whether the Fed tolerates some short-term pain in order to strengthen longer-term credibility. My guess is that it tries to do exactly that, until funding markets, credit markets, or bond volatility forces its hand to add more liquidity and loosen financial conditions again. That argues for choppy and even corrective price action in equity markets in the near term until the earnings led bull market has its next leg higher. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

On Wednesday, President Trump met with Iranian leaders to sign an initial memorandum of understanding towards ending the months-long war. In a press conference after the signing, Trump was triumphant. Specifically, he touted the deal's firmness on one of the US's key priorities: ensuring that Iran can never develop a nuclear weapon. Whilst Iran has agreed to “not procure or develop nuclear weapons," there are many questions left unanswered. What does it actually look like to police the weapons programmes Today, we speak to someone intimately familiar with the weapons inspection process: President of the Institute for Science and International Security, David Albright. In the 1990s, Albright worked in Iraq with the UN, investigating the nation's weapons programme under Sadaam Hussein.To hear more, search The Global Story wherever you get your BBC podcasts.