Podcasts about Global

Josh 13:1-14:15, Luke 18:1-17, Ps 85:1-13, Pr 13:7-8

Josh 13:1-14:15, Luke 18:1-17, Ps 85:1-13, Pr 13:7-8

Stew breaks down the news of the day, including Trump's failed “blockade” of the Strait of Hormuz. A sanctioned Chinese oil tanker sailed straight through 16 US warships like they weren't even there. The blockade collapsed instantly. America has no jurisdiction over Chinese ships or the Strait, and the whole world just saw the central banking cabal's “sanctions” are a joke. China, Iran, and the Houthis beat America again. Bishop Joseph Pfeiffer joins me to rip apart the blasphemous Trump-as-Jesus image and expose the straight-up spiritual warfare behind this Talmudic mass-murder machine steamrolling Gaza and Iran while American blood and treasure is sacrificed on the altar of Greater Israel. This April only: $3 off your first month on Locals ✝️ A reminder of the 3rd day and the power of resurrection. Join here:

What if the decades-long debate between active and passive investing wasn't really a debate—but a data problem? In this episode, Ben Felix and Cameron Passmore are joined by Tim Edwards, Managing Director and Global Head of Index Investment Strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices, for a deep dive into the SPIVA Scorecard—the industry's most enduring and data-driven comparison of active versus passive investing. Tim explains how SPIVA has evolved over 25 years, why survivorship bias matters more than most investors realize, and what the data consistently shows across markets: most active funds underperform their benchmarks—especially over longer time horizons. The conversation goes beyond the headline results, exploring persistence (or lack thereof) in manager performance, why bond funds don't escape the same fate, and whether combining active funds improves outcomes (spoiler: not really). They also tackle common critiques of indexing, including index rebalancing costs, IPO inclusion concerns, and the role of index funds in market concentration.     Key Points From This Episode: (0:00:17) Introduction to the SPIVA report and its long-standing role in the indexing vs. active debate (0:01:18) Overview of the episode: SPIVA, index behavior, IPOs, and market concentration (0:03:30) What SPIVA is and how it measures active fund performance versus benchmarks (0:04:14) Why SPIVA was created: to inform—not settle—the active vs. passive debate (0:05:20) How SPIVA has evolved across regions, asset classes, and research dimensions (0:06:59) Controlling for survivorship bias and why it materially affects results (0:08:57) Real-world survivorship rates: ~50–60% of funds survive over 10 years (0:10:12) Core finding: most active funds underperform, especially over longer horizons (0:10:57) Comparison of equity vs. bond funds: slightly better outcomes in bonds, but still mostly underperformance (0:13:44) Structural differences in equity vs. bond markets (e.g., skewness, dispersion) (0:15:06) Typical survivorship rates across markets and how crises affect fund closures (0:16:02) Persistence analysis: past winners rarely remain winners (0:18:16) Global variation: some markets (e.g., international small caps) show slightly better active results (0:20:41) "Better" doesn't mean good: even in stronger categories, most funds still underperform (0:21:31) Do active funds perform better in down markets? Not consistently (0:23:37) Multi-asset portfolios of active funds: 97% underperform over 10 years (0:25:10) Selecting top-quartile funds improves outcomes slightly—but not meaningfully (0:26:46) Surprising findings in SPIVA and how market dynamics shape results (0:27:45) Impact of SPIVA on industry behavior and investor education (0:29:03) Ben shares how SPIVA influenced his own career path toward indexing (0:30:08) The "index effect" and whether index rebalancing creates performance drag (0:31:30) Why the index effect has largely diminished due to market competition and liquidity (0:34:05) Research on IPO inclusion and whether index rules create systematic return drag (0:36:57) How S&P handles IPO inclusion (e.g., 12-month seasoning rule for S&P 500) (0:39:58) Whether index methodology could evolve due to larger modern IPOs (0:42:36) Addressing concerns about large IPOs entering index funds (0:43:52) Historical perspective on market concentration and today's top-heavy indices (0:45:29) What happened to past top-10 companies: many declined, but markets still thrived (0:47:10) Creative destruction: why markets can succeed even when leaders fail (0:49:15) Weak relationship between market concentration and future returns (0:50:55) None of today's top companies were top companies in the 1960s (0:52:16) Key takeaway: markets evolve, and cap-weighted indices adapt automatically (0:53:58) Concerns about index fund growth and its impact on market function (0:54:30) Benefits of indexing: lower fees and often better investor outcomes (0:56:15) Timing the market: why waiting for a bigger drop tends to hurt returns (0:58:52) "Time in the market" vs. "timing the market" (0:59:09) Tim's favorite index: the DSPX dispersion index (1:00:53) Defining success: why happiness is the ultimate metric     Links: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Cameron Passmore — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Cameron on X — https://x.com/CameronPassmore Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

View This Week's Show NotesStart Your 7-Day Trial to Mobility CoachJoin Our Free Weekly Newsletter: The AmbushWhat happens when human biology collides with exponential technology? In this wide-ranging and deeply relevant conversation, Steven Kotler – NYT best-selling author and founder of the Flow Research Collective – joins The Ready State to unpack how AI, information overload, and rapid technological change are reshaping the way we think, work, and live.Steven breaks down the growing mismatch between our ancient brains and today's hyper-accelerated world – and why it's leading to burnout, fractured attention, and loss of meaning. But this isn't a doom-and-gloom conversation. Instead, he offers a powerful reframe: the future belongs to those who can harness flow, think creatively, and collaborate at scale.From practical strategies for using AI without losing your cognitive edge… to why attention is your most valuable currency… to how group flow may be the key to solving humanity's biggest challenges, this episode is both a wake-up call and a roadmap. If you've ever felt overwhelmed, distracted, or unsure how to keep up in today's world, this conversation will change how you think about performance, purpose, and possibility.What You'll Learn in This EpisodeWhy our brains are overwhelmed – and the hidden chain reaction leading to burnout and identity collapseHow AI can either enhance your thinking… or quietly erode your cognitive abilitiesThe role of flow state in boosting creativity, productivity, and long-term resilienceWhy attention is the real battleground of the modern world – and how to train itHow “group flow” and cooperation at scale may be the key to thriving in the futureKey Highlights: (00:00) Intro & Teaser: The AI Attention Warning(02:56) Meet Steven Kotler & We Are As Gods(04:18) The World Is 286% Faster Than in 2012(05:29) Global vs. Linear: How Our Brains Fell Behind(11:59) Understanding Cognitive Load & Information Overload(14:17) Exponential Leadership Syndrome Explained(14:53) The Chain: Overload, Burnout, & Identity Collapse(17:36) When Is AI Helping vs. Making Us Weaker?(18:49) The Brain Predicts the Future to Save Calories(23:54) Cognitive Offloading: The Real AI Problem(26:00) Rule #1: Always Do Your Thinking First(28:37) Interoception as the Antidote to AI Overuse(38:35) What Is Flow State? The Full Breakdown(39:07) Flow Makes You 500% More Productive(40:48) Why AI Can't Do Lateral Thinking (But Humans Can)(43:57) The Key To Maximum Creativity(46:05) You Need Better Personal Filters – Here's Why(51:48) The Human Attention Span Is Now 3 Seconds(52:35) Match Your Screen Time with Meditation Time(57:51) Challenge & Friction Are Features, Not Bugs(58:40) The Challenge-Skills Balance and Flow Triggers(1:02:24) Rethinking Work: Creation vs. Survival(1:08:39) The Killer App of the 21st Century: Cooperate at Scale(1:13:02) Master Group Flow to Thrive in the AI Age(1:15:23) Infinite Shelf & Where to Find Steven KotlerHuge thanks to our sponsors, LMNT, Momentous, Vitality, and Kreatures of Habit

Psalm 56, Psalm 120, Psalm 140-142

Tommy and Ben walk through a week of epic failures for the Trump administration, from peace talks with Iran to Viktor Orbán's historic loss in Hungary.They break down everything that was wrong with the US-Iran peace talks, like both sides coming in with maximalist positions, Vice President JD Vance walking out in a huff, and the lack of American expertise at the table. Then they unpack what we know about Trump's risky plan to also blockade the Strait of Hormuz, the growing economic fallout from the war, the heated AI-powered, LEGO-themed propaganda war happening on social media, the attack on free speech in many Gulf countries, including the arrest of American journalist Ahmed Shihab-Eldin, and the latest on Israel's bombing, invasion, and occupation of Lebanon. Then they cover some rare good news in Viktor Orbán's stunning defeat after 16 years in power, and what we can learn from Hungarian activists about fighting corrupt autocrats, and discuss what other world leaders can learn from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's continued electoral success from punching back at Trump. At the end of the show, Ben speaks to Anand Gopal about his new book about Syria, Days of Love and Rage: A Story of Ordinary People Forging a Revolution.For Friends of the Pod, the guys answer questions about diplomatic approaches to Cuba, and just how frank diplomatic conversations get behind closed doors.Preorder Ben's book All We Say: The Battle for American Identity: A History in 15 Speeches  and subscribe to his Substack here.

Josh 11:1-12:24, Luke 17:11-37, Ps 84:1-12, Pr 13:5-6

Global Powers and the Iranian Clerical Collapse Guest: Gregory Copley Gregory Copley notes that while Russia gains oil revenue, China fears the collapse of Iran's clerical government. Xi Jinping remains bunkered in Beijing, watching for popular uprisings that might inspire domestic unrest.2016 palatinate

Strategic Management of Global Maritime Chokepoints Guest: Gregory Copley Gregory Copley argues the US has turned the Strait of Hormuz blockade into a strategic advantage. Managing the Red Sea remains vital as Saudi Arabia fears regional escalation and bottlenecked oil exports.1948 RHINELAND-PALATANATE

America is at war for Israel as traitor Trump obeys his Jewish handlers by blockading Hormuz, stealing uranium, and clearing the path for Greater Israel and the Third Temple. Iranians refuse to surrender, the heist was a failed ground invasion with dead Americans and destroyed planes, and now Trump blasphemes as Jesus while Netanyahu runs the government—Satan must be defeated. This April only: $3 off your first month on Locals ✝️ A reminder of the 3rd day and the power of resurrection. Join here:

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter concludes the two-part discussion with chief regional economists Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya on the second order effects of the energy shock from tensions in the Middle East.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, the Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. Yesterday we focused on the immediate impact of the Iran conflict, how the energy shock is feeding through into inflation, and, as a result, shaping central bank decisions across the U.S., Europe, and Asia.Today we're going to go a level deeper and talk about some structural issues in the global economy. It's Wednesday, April 15th at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3pm in London. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, even as we're waiting to see whether or not oil prices stabilize following a temporary ceasefire – or not – the broader effects are still working their way through the global economy. Labor markets, supply chains, and then, of course, back to the more longer-term structural themes like AI driven growth. So, the question, I think, has to be: what does this shock mean, if anything, for the next phase of global growth? And does it reshape it? Does it change it, or do we just wait for things to go through? Mike, let me come to you first. One risk that we've been focusing on is whether this kind of shock really changes some of the structural positives in the U.S. economy. The U.S. has been, I would say, outperforming in lots of ways. We've had this AI driven CapEx cycle. We've had rising productivity; we've had strong consumer spending. What are you seeing in the data about those more structural trends? Michael Gapen: I think what we're seeing in the data right now is evidence that oil is not disrupting the positive structural trends in the U.S. I think AI CapEx spending is largely orthogonal to what we've seen so far. It doesn't mean that we can't see negative effects, particularly if oil rises to say $150 a barrel or more where we think you might see significant demand destruction. But with oil where it is right now, I would say the evidence is it will probably weigh on consumption. Gasoline prices are higher. It's going to squeeze lower- and middle-income households that way. But so far, the labor market appears to be holding up. And business spending around CapEx seems to be holding up. And the productivity story remains in place. So right now, I'd say this is more of a break on consumer spending, maybe a modest headwind. But not an outright hard stop. And I think those positive structural elements and AI-related CapEx spending are going to stay with us in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I hear in your answer part of what for me is always the most uncomfortable part of these conversations. Where I have to come back to say, ‘But of course it depends on how things evolve…' Michael Gapen: Of course, It depends… Seth Carpenter: So, then let me push you on AI specifically. You and your team have published a few pieces recently about AI. How AI is affecting the labor market, and maybe some hints as to how AI is likely to affect the labor market. So how should we think about that? Michael Gapen: While it's still too early, I think, to draw firm conclusions, Seth, we do find that there's some evidence that AI is pushing unemployment rates higher in specific occupations that are exposed to task replacement. So, what we did do is we broke down the data by occupation, and it's clear that the unemployment rate has been rising. But that's just a general feature of the economy at this point in time. Over the last 18 to 24 months, the unemployment rate has gone higher. So, what we did is a second-round effort at kind of controlling for cyclicality. And when you control for those, we do find evidence that the unemployment rate for occupations that have high exposure to AI is higher than you would expect, given the cyclical performance of the economy. But the effect is really small. It's maybe about 1/10th on the unemployment rate. So, I don't want to be too Pollyannish and say, ‘Oh, there's no evidence here that AI is disrupting the labor market.' We'd say that there is some evidence there. But, so far, it's mild and it's modest. It's a little more micro than it is macro. So, we'll see how this evolves. But that would be our initial conclusion so far. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike, that's super helpful. When I think about the AI investment cycle, though, I have to come back to Asia because a lot of the AI supply chain is there in Asia, especially with semiconductors and others. But there's lots of supply chain around the world. So, Chetan, if I think about different supply chains, different industries in Asia that are at risk, potentially being disrupted by the current shock, where do you focus? And then take a step further and tell me if you see a risk that there's a structural dislocation going on here in any of these sectors? Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, there are two relevant points here from Asia supply chain perspective, particularly the tech sector. Number one, there are some concerns on the supply side issues in the context of helium and sulfur. But from what we see as of today, these companies who need that helium and sulfur are able to pay up. As you would appreciate, this is a sector which is, you know, making a lot of money for those economies, i.e. Korea and Taiwan. And they are able to bid up on gas prices, sulfur, and helium, and still managing their production lines. So, we don't see a supply constraint as of now for their production, but there will be an implication for them if you do see damage on U.S. growth, which is quite meaningful. At the end of the day, these sectors are deep cyclical sectors. But if you do see that, you know, scenario of $150 of oil price and it brings global economy to near recession, then there will be implication for these companies and sectors in Asia as well. Seth Carpenter: All right, so Jens, let me bring it to you then. Because when I think about Europe, I think about a couple things. One, kind of, the intersection of energy vulnerability now markets pricing in tighter policy, industrial exposure, which has been going on for a long time. Takes us back in lots of ways to the energy price shock that started in 2021 and went through all of 2022, where we did see, I think, a hit to European manufacturing that had kind of a long tail to it. So, when you think about the current situation, what do you think this shock means for the medium term? How much of an effect do you think this energy price shock could have on the European economy going out a couple of years?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, I mean, just listening to you guys, I mean, really makes me a little bit more depressed still, in terms of being European economist here. Because I mean, it seems America, well, they have the same energy shock, but at least they have AI. In Asia while they have the same energy shock, but at least they have something to deliver into AI. Europe just has the shock, right? So, in some sense there could be one summary.No, but I mean, going back to the comparison and the question. Of course, we have downgraded, as I said yesterday, our growth outlook. And that's predominantly on simply inflation high that is not great for consumption. Consumption is 50 percent of GDP. So, you want to take down a little bit your forecast and your optimism. And then – to your point – where does this leave Europe? We do have already less energy intense manufacturing than before. So, not sure if you'll see much more, or much further downward pressure on this sector. But, of course, it is an uphill battle from here to get back. To get this industrial renaissance back that to some extent the Germans at least are hoping for. In our growth outlook and our growth revisions, we looked into differentiated impacts. And, of course, one of these impacts is through trade. And again, the backdrop here probably globally is not great for trade – as at least you would not want to be super optimistic in that current backdrop. And that will hurt again Europe. So, to your question, we have an outlook, which is still positive growth; but much more muted than say, a month ago or two. Seth Carpenter: Can I push you then a little bit and say that this shock to the European economy then isn't just a cyclical hit. There's probably an additional sort of structural headwind that might get introduced on the heels of, say, the earlier 2021-2022 energy shock? Jens Eisenschmidt: I would say it's the same thing. It's just a reminder that this is still there, right? Europe needs to, kind of, find ways… I think it's best exemplified by the German economy, who was exporting to the rest of the world. And now it looks like as if China has taken over that role. And so, you have to find a new business model, simply speaking, because the ice cream shop next door is just better than you. And so, this is something, what the European economy has just gotten another reminder, and it came through energy, in particular. So, this is where the similarities are. So that was a [20]22 shock. In the meantime, oil prices had nicely retraced, gas prices had nicely retraced. We have new contracts with different suppliers. But still, I mean, the high energy prices expose us here. Because we are already a continent with very high electricity prices, which are derived from the fossil fuels. And so that is not going to end. And so, the continent really urgently has to address that weakness, that structural weakness. And so yeah, in that sense it's structural. Seth Carpenter: Let me pull this together for maybe a final question for each of you. And I'd love it if you could just answer really quickly. Quick fire answers here. We've got a baseline scenario where energy prices are high. Oil is back up a little bit over $100 a barrel. But I think we, and most of the market, are assuming oil prices gradually come down later this year. Mike, what's the prognosis for the U.S. economy? If instead oil prices skyrocket, say they go through $150 a barrel for a couple of months in a row. Michael Gapen: So, the risk there, Seth, is that you do get significant demand destruction. It's not just a gasoline price story for the consumer. It's about weak asset markets. It's about a pullback in hiring. So, at $150 a barrel or more, I would be afraid about recession risk in the U.S. The U.S. is well positioned to handle an oil price shock, but it also has limits. Seth Carpenter: Got it. Jens, suppose instead we had a rapid de-escalation and all of a sudden in the next two months, oil prices are backed down to say $80 a barrel or so. How much of the damage that you envision for the European economy is already baked in the cake? And how much of it goes away if oil prices retrace over the next two months? Jens Eisenschmidt: I would say a lot for this year is baked in the cake to use your words. While next year, we would be basically back to where we had been before in numbers. 1.2 instead of the 0.9 we are seeing currently. And importantly, the ECB could stay. It would not have to hike into that crisis. Seth Carpenter: So, Chetan, , let me come back to you then to wrap up this whole conversation. We've talked about energy mostly in terms of price, but as we've discussed there is the quantity side of things. So, do you think there's a non-linearity? Is there something that's going to just fundamentally change if instead of the rationing being done by price, we get to a point where there's just simply no supply coming to Asia? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, I think that's a very real risk, and that's particularly more important for Asia because there's a lot of dependence on Middle East, and both gas and oil coming in through the Strait of Hormuz. So yeah, I think there is a risk of non-linearity on Asia's growth dynamics if you see supply shortages. Seth Carpenter: Super helpful. I think that's a great place to leave it. What started as a geopolitical shock is now evolving into something broader, touching everything from inflation, interest rates, possibly productivity and technology investment, and clearly global trade. So, Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you all for coming to help connect these dots. And to the listener, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Tucker Carlson claims that Muslims love Jesus and are far more hospitable to Christians than say...Israel... the Pope has said that we need to be less fearful of Islam and that Lebanon stands as an excellent example of Christians and muslims living together in peace and mutual respect...but is it true? Today, we will carefully and respectfully examine the data to test these claims.SPONSOR: Lear CapitalGold and silver are at all-time highs driven by inflation, market instability, and a weaker dollar. Lear Capital helps you protect your savings by diversifying into precious metals with no upfront fees and no obligation. Get your free investor guide and see how much bonus gold or silver you qualify for—up to $20,000 with a qualified purchase.Call 800-707-4575 or visit https://www.Nick4Lear.com-----SPONSOR: American FinancingA lot of families are leaning on credit cards just to make ends meet, paying 20%+ interest on basic expenses. American Financing helps homeowners tap into their equity to pay off that high-interest debt, with mortgage rates currently in the 5s. On average, they're saving customers $800 a month—nearly $10,000 a year—with no upfront fees and no obligation to talk to a salary-based mortgage consultant. Start today and you could even delay two mortgage payments.NMLS 182334, nmlsconsumeraccess.org. APR for rates in the 5s start at 6.327% for well qualified borrowers. Call 866-886-2026 for details about credit costs and terms. Visit http://www.AmericanFinancing.net/MTA. Average savings based on borrowers who save over $199.99Call 866-886-2026 or visit https://www.AmericanFinancing.net/MTA-----GET YOUR MERCH HERE: https://shop.nickjfreitas.com/BECOME A MEMBER OF THE IC: https://NickJFreitas.comInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/nickjfreitas/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickFreitasVATwitter: https://twitter.com/NickJFreitasYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NickjfreitasTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@nickjfreitas3.000:00:00 – Addressing the Pope and Tucker on Islamic relations00:01:05 – Why Lebanon fails as a peaceful coexistence model00:05:05 – Comparing Christian citizenship in Qatar versus Israel00:08:16 – Fact checking Tucker on religious freedom laws in Islamic nations00:11:55 – Analyzing the reduction of Christians in Islamic countries00:17:50 – The exponential growth of Muslim populations in the West00:23:51 – Global data on the top persecuted religious groups00:26:31 – Why the progressive left supports anti Western revolutions00:33:46 – Why Sharia law is incompatible with American principles00:43:30 – How minority factions gain critical mass for victory00:58:28 – The decline of Christian influence on American identity01:07:08 – The danger of the right abandoning logical reasoning

Where is everyone now?! Vogue's still in St Barts and Joanne is in New Zealand. That means a time difference of 16 hours!! Luckily, everyone is happy with their own local time, so it works. SO... What went down at Coachella? It's time for an investigation and debrief on why Vogue, nor Joanne will ever be there. Plus, a very embarrassing moment for one listener...Tickets for Joanne's tour Pinotphile are now LIVE: www.joannemcnally.comIf you'd like to get in touch, you can send an email to hello@MTGMpod.comPlease review Global's Privacy Policy: https://global.com/legal/privacy-policy/For merch, tour dates and more visit: www.mytherapistghostedme.comThis episode contains explicit language and adult themes that may not be suitable for all listeners.

Psalm 7, Psalm 27, Psalm 31, Psalm 34, Psalm 52

Josh 9:3-10:43, Luke 16:19-17:10, Ps 83:1-18, Pr 13:4

5. Holocaust Remembrance and the Iranian Ideology. Malcolm Hoenlein reflects on Yom HaShoah and rising global anti-Semitism. He discusses how Iran's radical ideology drives its leaders to claim victory despite heavy military losses, refusing to compromise on their nuclear and proxy ambitions.1979 TEHRAN

Straight talk from Stew: The fake Trump “ceasefire” with Iran is dead on arrival. Iran just shut down all negotiations while Trump claims the U.S. is blockading the Strait of Hormuz — except it's not a real blockade, it's a Jewish-ordered suicide run designed to get more Americans killed and justify a full U.S. ground invasion of Iran. I've warned you since day one — this war is just the forever war for Greater Israel, and the Strait of Hormuz is primed for the greatest false flag in history with American ships sinking in flames. Jeff Berwick is here exposing how the US is blockading the blockade to crash global oil for Agenda 2030 depopulation, while unleashing weaponized ticks as the next plandemic with Pfizer's Lyme vaccine already waiting.   JP Sears just torched this clown-world Iran war that Israel keeps dragging us back into every time Trump screams “total victory.” We went deep on how Trump is compromised by the Epstein files, the Israel lobby, and why real patriots are finally noticing who actually runs this country. This April only: $3 off your first month on Locals ✝️ A reminder of the 3rd day and the power of resurrection. Join here:

In this first of a two-part discussion, our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter leads a discussion with chief regional economists Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya on impacts of the conflict in Iran and how central banks are responding.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're going to kick off our quarterly economic roundtable. And this is where we try to step back a little bit from the headlines and the day-to-day changes in markets and try to put the global picture together and frame it for you. In the first of this two-part discussion, we're going to cover the implications of the oil price shock for energy, inflation, and for central bank policy. As always, I'm joined by the Chief Regional Economists here at Morgan Stanley. I've got Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. It's Tuesday, April 14th at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3pm in London. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, let's just jump right into this. Over the past several weeks, global markets have been dominated by one story. The escalation, de-escalation, the news flow back and forth about the conflict in Iran and the ripple across energy markets, inflation, and growth. Our view has been that even if we don't see another huge leg up in the price of energy and another surge in volatility across financial markets, the persistence of the shock in terms of disrupted supply will be at least as important, if not more so for markets. So, let me start here in the U.S., Mike. You and I have each had lots of conversations with clients about how the Fed's going to react. Market pricing moved a lot before, has retraced, and now is kind of looking at no change in policy for this year, give or take. Your baseline remains that the Fed will have an easing bias and that we'll end up with a couple of cuts later this year. Can you walk us through that thinking, and also where the debate is with clients? Michael Gapen: Sure. So, the evidence in the data… This goes back, let's call it several decades now – that oil price shocks in the U.S. do tend to push headline inflation higher by definition. But they have very limited second round effects on core inflation. And the higher oil prices go, the more likely it is that you get some demand destruction, some weakness in spending, maybe even some weakness in hiring. So, there is a bit of a non-linearity here. In our baseline where oil is elevated, but let's say not excessively high, I can completely buy the argument that the Fed is on hold assessing the evolution of the data and wondering are there second round effects on inflation? Or is this weakening demand? So, Seth, our view is that the Fed is right in its assessment that tariff passed through to goods prices will eventually moderate. And that the oil price effect on headline will diminish. And later this year, core inflation moderates. That should open the door for the Fed to cut two times this year. I do think that the wrong thing to do in this situation is to raise rates into this… Seth Carpenter: I agree with you. Michael Gapen: Yeah. So, I think it's… The Fed's on hold or their cutting. If we're right on where inflation goes, that can open the door to cuts. But to your point, where is the investor debate right now? I think the knee jerk reaction from markets is – the Fed's on the sideline, for, let's call it the foreseeable future. Which as you noted in this market is day-to-day headline to headline. And the Fed will assess where to go later this year. We think they can cut. But I think in general, the Fed is either on hold or cutting. I think the wrong thing to do right now is raise rates. Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, let me jump in maybe here from Europe where in theory it's the same problem. Just that the answer that the central bank is likely to give in Europe is slightly different from the one in the U.S. So, the debate we have with clients is not so much about whether or not the ECB is going to hike rates. It's more about how much it will do or have to do this. I mean, again, it has a lot to do with the way oil prices in the end, end up trading. It will be a lot more inflation or less. But it has also to do with the way the mandates are constructed. So, the ECB really has a single inflation mandate and not a dual mandate like the Fed in the case of the U.S. So, there's much more attention on inflation. Next to that, we have stronger second round effects. Historically, we know that from the data. So, it's clear and understandable why ECB policy makers all came out cautioning against that inflation coming, and sort of mulling what had to be done there. We had some leaks out of the governing council meeting in March that maybe [in] April, you've already seen rate hikes. We pushed strongly back against that notion. Since then, we had other policy makers coming out agreeing to that. Yet we likely have a discussion in the June meeting that may lead to a rate hike. We currently forecast a rate hike in June and one in September. Seth Carpenter: What about the growth risks to the euro area? Is that part of why you think the hikes might come later? Is that part of why the ECB might only hike two times this year? How do you think about the growth risks for the euro area in addition to the inflation risks? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, no, I think that's a fair question. We have just updated our growth outlook for this year. Next, we've downgraded growth, obviously. Again, all of that is dependent on the scenario in the end we are in. For now, we assume a scenario of elevated oil prices for this year, but then they will retrace. Now the ECB will look at that in a very similar fashion. So first of all, they will have their new projections. They will see whether there is any hope, reasonable hope that we go back to close to target inflation. Mind you, we were below target, started the year on a very good footing here. And now are projecting we will more or less come out at above 3 percent this year and 2.4 next. Both are above the 2 percent target. That already factors in a mild hit to growth. And I think here is really the crux of the matter. If the ECB has to see a more dramatic downward revision of its growth outlook, they may as well hold a little bit more back with rate hikes. At the same time, for now, all the indications are that the hit to growth will be relatively mild and herein lies if you want the basis for the rate hikes. It's a bit of a signaling device. It's a bit of lowering growth, but not really as much. It's not – we see a central bank leaning strongly against inflation. We are seeing them mildly leaning against it in a bid to stabilize inflation expectations mainly.Seth Carpenter: Alright, that's super helpful. Chetan, I'm going to come to you because we've talked with Mike and with Jens about the inflationary side of things and the growth side of things. But when I think about energy and Asia, I think of Asia as being a bit more exposed than other big economies, definitely relative to the United States. And I think about a lot of sensitivity, not just to the consumer, but also to manufacturing. So how are you thinking about the exposure across your region, across Asia to this energy shock? Where are the biggest risks? Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, first of all, I agree with you. I think Asia is the most exposed region. The best metric for assessing that is how much is the net oil imports of each of the regions in the world. And Asia is at around 2 percent of GDP. Europe is around 1.5 percent of GDP and U.S. is actually a minor surplus. Now in terms of the transmission of this shock to growth, there are two elements to be considered. One is the price of oil and gas, and second is the supply shortages. And in fact, all my life when I have been doing this work of modeling on oil shocks to growth transmission, we've never had to really think about supply shortages. We've always been considering oil price increase and its impact. But in this cycle, we have to also consider the supply shortages. So, when you consider both these factors, we think that there will be a meaningful growth damage to Asia from the evidence of oil price increase and gas supply shortages that we have seen so far. And we have just reduced our growth estimates for the region from 4.8 percent to 4.4 percent. Mind you, first quarter was fine. So, this is all on account of the last three-quarters growth damage. And we are assuming that there will some kind of normalcy that we see in ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. And we are resuming oil prices average around $110 in second quarter and then come down to $90. So, in that sense, our base case is still expecting some kind of a resolution very soon. But if that doesn't materialize and you see oil prices rising up to $150, then we think region will take a much bigger hit and growth will come down to 3.9 percent in 2026. Seth Carpenter: So, Chetan, you've made a couple of really good points there. One I want to highlight is the difference between the quantities and the prices. I would say as economists, as people in markets, we're used to thinking about oil shocks as just about the price of oil and how that transmits through.But I do think there's a real risk now, given the virtual shutdown of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that we see physical shortages. And across different Asian economies, we have seen rationing already come into place. So, when you look across the region, how would you rank the specific economies that are most exposed? Especially if we have to think about physical shortages. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, right. Seth. So, we've considered both the aspects, price effect as well as the supply shortages. And on that basis, we rank India, Taiwan, Thailand, Korea and Philippines are the ones which are most exposed. And on the other hand, China and Malaysia are least exposed. Japan and Australia are moderately exposed. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, and that makes a lot of sense. But I can't let you get away from the discussion on Asia without thinking about China. What are you thinking specifically about China? How exposed is it? What's going to happen with growth there? And you know, one of the themes, you and Robin Xing, our Chief China Economist, had been talking about now for over a year is the deflationary cycle in China. So how should we think about the effects in China? Chetan Ahya: So, I think, yeah, China is uniquely positioned in this cycle. We are expecting China's growth to be down by just 10 basis points. So, it almost is as if there is not much damage to China's growth estimates that we have made. And the reason why we see little damage in China's growth numbers is because of two reasons. Number one is that their net oil imports are relatively low. And second is that they have a lot of control on their supply chain. So, for example, they have coal gasification facility. So, when crude oil prices rise above $100, they can activate this coal gasification facility and use that for all the areas where you can use fuel. And they are also quite good in terms of their own electricity distribution management. They have a lot of surplus thermal power capacity. They have a lot of surplus solar electricity capacity. So, they're able to toggle between gas-based electricity supply into coal and solar. So that gives them a lot of leeway to manage the shock and not have much growth damage. Onto your second point on the impact on its deflationary situation. We think that there will be a rise in prices in China because of the input price increase. We still won't call that as winning this deflation challenge that China has been going through over the last three years. For us, if you want to have true sustainable reflation, you should see consumption demand picking up. At the same time, you should see improvement in corporate margins. And neither of those will happen when you have a rise in inflation because of rise in input prices.Seth Carpenter: Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. As always China is an interesting but complicated story. So maybe this is a good place to stop for today.We focused on the immediate effects of the shock, higher energy prices, central bank reaction. Tomorrow, I think we'll be able to dig in deeper into some of the second order effects, and then also ask the question, where are we going from here? What's going to happen to labor markets productivity – the more structural questions. So, Mike Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thank you for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

1 Samuel 21-24

From explosive political claims about impeachment to rising global tensions and a heartbreaking local tragedy—this episode covers it all. A high-intensity breakdown of power, policy, and the real-world consequences making headlines.

A devastating tragedy in South Carolina sparks outrage over immigration enforcement failures, while a high-stakes global showdown unfolds as the U.S. tightens control over critical oil routes. From local heartbreak to geopolitical brinksmanship, Tara connects the dots on power, policy, and consequences.

A heartbreaking DUI death involving a toddler in South Carolina reignites national outrage over repeat failures in public safety. Meanwhile, a controversial papal statement ignites global debate about war, morality, and politics, pulling religion into the center of geopolitical tension.

A high-stakes geopolitical showdown is unfolding—and it could reshape the global economy. From oil routes to military strategy, this episode breaks down why control of key waterways and currencies may determine the future of American power.

EPISODE NOTES TOP STORIES U.S. orders naval blockade of Iranian ports → oil prices surge past $100/barrel Trump issues and then pauses extreme Iran ultimatum → last-minute ceasefire NATO allies hesitant to support U.S. escalation Global gas prices spike as geopolitical tension rises POLITICS / WORLD Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán loses power after 16 years → opposition victory Trump vs Pope Leo XIV feud escalates publicly Eric Swalwell abruptly resigns from Congress → no clear explanation WTF NEWS Colombia preparing to cull Escobar's “cocaine hippos” after population explosion Super Typhoon Sinlaku (175 mph winds) threatens Guam and Pacific অঞ্চল ENTERTAINMENT / CULTURE Coachella turns into celebrity cameo Olympics Britney Spears enters rehab following DUI No Doubt guitarist Tom Dumont reveals Parkinson's diagnosis TECH / INTERNET “ChatGPT fatigue” hits 54% of Americans → peak AI burnout FBI investigates Molotov cocktail attack targeting OpenAI CEO INTERVIEW LØ Spirit discusses debut album Isn't Life Beautiful Topics include: mental health, identity shift from SadSongsOnly, and creative pressure Career highlights: #1 rock radio success, sold-out tour, major festival appearances SPONSOR Quince LINKShttps://instagram.com/itsnewstoushttps://tiktok.com/@itsnewstous Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A man was shot during a traffic stop… then charged. But here's what's missing: we still don't even know his name. This is how the…

Next round of talks between US and Iran could take place this week or early next week, according to the Iranian embassy official in Pakistan.US VP Vance said we made some progress in Iran talks, and he wouldn't say things went wrong, while he added Iranians moved in our direction in talks, but not far enough.A US official said there is “continued engagement” with Iran and forward motion on trying to get to an agreement, while a senior US official also said talks between the US and Iran are continuing even now and there is progress in trying to reach an agreement, according to Axios.Energy eases amid continued reports of further US-Iran talks.Global equities gain on positive risk tone; US banks ahead.DXY soften, Kiwi continues to outperform while JPY helped modestly by reports BoJ is to increase price forecast.Fixed benchmarks gain, heavy speaker slate ahead. Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Mar), ADP Weekly Change, PPI (Mar), South Korean Export/Import Prices (Mar), IMF World Economic Outlook Press Briefing (Apr). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Greene, ECB's Lane, Cipollone & Lagarde, RBNZ's Breman, Fed's Goolsbee, Barr, Paulson, Collins & Barkin, Earnings from JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Citi, J&J, Wells Fargo & Kering.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Fechamento da rota marítima no Irã pode causar aumento nos preços dos alimentos e onda inflacionária; Organização das Nações Unidas para Alimentação e Agricultura, FAO, afirma que efeitos podem ser similares aos observados após pandemia de Covid-19.

Global events move fast—but financial reactions move faster. This episode with JoePat Roop examines how geopolitical headlines influence markets, emotions, and investor behavior. The conversation separates short-term noise from long-term fundamentals, unpacking why reacting to fear can create bigger problems than volatility itself. It’s a timely look at staying grounded when the news cycle feels overwhelming. For more information or to schedule a consultation call 704-946-7000 or visit BelmontUSA.com! Follow us on social media: YouTube | Instagram | Facebook | LinkedInSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This episode explores the surprising Ukrainian origins and remarkable cultural journey of Hava Nagila, one of the most recognizable songs in the world. The story begins with the melody itself — a nigun, a wordless Hassidic prayer tune sung since the mid‑1800s — which originated in a shtetl in Ukraine before becoming a global Jewish folk standard.The episode traces Pawlina's personal connection to Hava Nagila, from early encounters on television to the enduring emotional resonance the melody continues to hold. A chance conversation in Lviv with a Ukrainian man who identified as a born‑again Hassidic Jew sparked deeper curiosity about the song's Ukrainian roots and led to further research.That search culminated in discovering Hava Nagila: The Movie, a documentary by award‑winning American filmmaker Roberta Grossman. The film investigates the song's beginnings in Sadagora, Bukovina, where Grossman interviewed Ukrainian‑speaking locals, searched for traces of the Jewish community, and visited the ruins of a once‑great synagogue connected to the melody's origins. The documentary then follows the song's path to Palestine, where its lyrics were written, and through the upheavals of the world wars, the Holocaust, and the evolving identity of the Jewish people.Featuring interviews with cultural figures including Harry Belafonte, Connie Francis, Glen Campbell, and Leonard Nimoy, the film presents the song's spiritual and cultural layers with humor and depth. It also highlights the song's modern presence, from global pop culture to contemporary performances across Ukraine.Many of these performances can be found on YouTube, along with links on the Nash Holos website to additional videos and to places where Hava Nagila: The Movie can be purchased or rented. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Josh 7:16-9:2, Luke 16:1-18, Ps 82:1-8, Pr 13:2-3

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson shares his perspective on why investors should position for a stock market recovery despite ongoing uncertainty.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist.Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why equity investors – sometimes – need to look away from the headlines.It's Monday, April 13th at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.Today I want to talk about something I think a lot of investors are struggling with right now – and that's timing. When I talk to people, markets still feel fragile to most. There's uncertainty around geopolitics, central banks, oil… You name it. But when I look at what the market is actually doing; not what it feels like, but what it's telling us – I come away with a very different conclusion. The market is further along than most people think in this correction.In fact, over the past couple of weeks, we've seen the S&P 500 bounce meaningfully. Almost 7 percent from the lows after holding that critical 6300 to 6500 range that we've been focused on. To me, that's not random. That's the market carving out a low ahead of an all-clear signal. And stepping back, my broader view hasn't changed.I still think we're in a new bull market that began last April, coming out of that rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. This correction is part of that cycle; not the end of it. And importantly, a lot of the heavy lifting has already been done.Valuations have compressed significantly. Forward price/earnings multiples have fallen about 18 percent from top to bottom. And beneath the surface, more than half of stocks are down 20 percent or more. That's a market that has already discounted a lot of risk – whether it's the war, private credit concerns, or AI disruption.At the same time, earnings are moving in the opposite direction. Trailing earnings growth is running around 15 percent, and forward earnings growth is up over 20 percent. That combination of falling multiples and rising earnings is a classic bull market correction behavior. Not a bear market. And that's why I think many are misreading this environment.One area where I think that's especially clear is energy. If you look at the price action, energy stocks appear to have already peaked in relative terms. That's often a signal that the underlying commodity – in this case oil – may also be peaking. Or at least it's stabilizing.Which brings me to what I think is really driving volatility now: rates.We're back in a regime where stocks and yields are negatively correlated. That means higher rates are a headwind for equities again, and the recent hawkish tone from central banks that's focused on inflation is creating tighter financial conditions. In my view, that's the final hurdle. Not the war. Not oil. But monetary policy. And here's the interesting part. Tightening financial conditions are also what ultimately force central banks to pivot. So the very thing creating anxiety today may be what sets up relief tomorrow.Now, if we're in the later stages of this correction, the next question is positioning. For me, it's still about a barbell. On one side, I like cyclicals like Financials, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary – where the earnings remain strong and valuations have reset. On the other side is quality growth. In particularly the hyperscalers; where sentiment has been washed out, but fundamentals remain intact. That combination has worked well off the lows so far, and I think it continues to make sense here.When I zoom out even further, there's a bigger theme developing as well. And that's the rebalancing of the economy, a core theme we discussed in our 2026 outlook back in November. We're starting to see hard evidence that growth is shifting, from the public to the private economy. Private payrolls are strengthening, capital investment is picking up, and companies are behaving as if the current uncertainty is temporary – not structural. This is the rolling recovery on track.At the same time, AI is acting more as a margin tailwind than a disruption, at least in the near term. And this supports operating leverage across many industries. All of that reinforces my view that the recovery is real. And still has room to run.So when I put it all together, here's where I land:The market has already discounted a lot of bad news. It's adjusted valuations, reset positioning, and absorbed market risks. What risk remains is policy, and how long rates and liquidity stay restrictive. But markets don't wait for clarity on that. They move ahead of it.So, here's my advice. Take advantage of any further worries and put capital to work before it's obvious. Because the market waits for no one.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

In this episode of The Hair Game Podcast, we meet Tish and Snooky, the founders of Manic Panic. They share their journey from performing in legacy bands to creating a revolutionary hair color brand. They discuss their nightlife inspiration, the evolution of their business, and their commitment to vegan and cruelty-free products. The sisters reflect on their experiences in the beauty industry, the challenges they faced, and their plans for the future of their company. The passion that started this company is very much at the forefront of their business, and they emphasize the importance of authenticity in a brand. Key Takeaways:  • Inspiration for the origin of Manic Panic • Musical past as backup singers for Blondie • How the name 'Manic Panic' came to be  • The importance of passion in entrepreneurship • Staying commited to innovation in product formula • The power of community & support within the beauty industry    Video versions of our episodes are on our YouTube channel for you to watch: https://youtu.be/zjb6xGEnPdo Subscribe to our channel The Hair Game on YouTube and check out 'The Hair Game Podcast' playlist Our podcast thrives on the opinions of you, the listener... if you have a moment (and you are an Apple user), please leave us a rating & review on the Apple podcasts app or iTunes!  Here's what you do: Scroll down to 'Ratings & Reviews' Click on the empty purple stars (5 is the best)! Click on 'Write a Review' and let us know what you love most! Each rating & review helps us reach more and more of your fellow hair loves, and our goal is to help as many hairdressers as we can find success. Thanks in advance! FOLLOW US @thehairgamepodcast @salonrepublic @loveerictaylor

In this episode of The Hair Game Podcast, we meet Tish and Snooky, the founders of Manic Panic. They share their journey from performing in legacy bands to creating a revolutionary hair color brand. They discuss their nightlife inspiration, the evolution of their business, and their commitment to vegan and cruelty-free products. The sisters reflect on their experiences in the beauty industry, the challenges they faced, and their plans for the future of their company. The passion that started this company is very much at the forefront of their business, and they empnhasize the importance of authenticity in a brand. Key Takeaways:  • Inspiration for the origin of Manic Panic • Musical past as backup singers for Blondie • How the name 'Manic Panic' came to be  • The importance of passion in entrepreneurshuip • Staying commited to innovation in product formula • The power of community & support within the beauty industry    Video versions of our episodes are on our YouTube channel for you to watch: https://youtu.be/zjb6xGEnPdo Subscribe to our channel The Hair Game on YouTube and check out 'The Hair Game Podcast' playlist Our podcast thrives on the opinions of you, the listener... if you have a moment (and you are an Apple user), please leave us a rating & review on the Apple podcasts app or iTunes!  Here's what you do: Scroll down to 'Ratings & Reviews' Click on the empty purple stars (5 is the best)! Click on 'Write a Review' and let us know what you love most! Each rating & review helps us reach more and more of your fellow hair loves, and our goal is to help as many hairdressers as we can find success. Thanks in advance! FOLLOW US @thehairgamepodcast @salonrepublic @loveerictaylor

After 21 Hours of negotiations in Islamabad, Vice President JD Vance walked out of the room without a deal. Peace talks between the United States and Iran have collapsed. Within hours, President Trump announced the US Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz. So what happens now?SPONSOR: Lear CapitalGold and silver are at all-time highs driven by inflation, market instability, and a weaker dollar. Lear Capital helps you protect your savings by diversifying into precious metals with no upfront fees and no obligation. Get your free investor guide and see how much bonus gold or silver you qualify for—up to $20,000 with a qualified purchase.Call 800-707-4575 or visit https://www.Nick4Lear.com-----SPONSOR: Alliance Defending FreedomAlliance Defending Freedom is on the front lines defending free speech, religious liberty, and parental rights. They've won major Supreme Court victories including helping overturn Roe v. Wade and securing landmark free speech protections. Your gift will be matched dollar for dollar.Have your gift matched dollar for dollar at https://www.JoinADF.com/NICK-----GET YOUR MERCH HERE: https://shop.nickjfreitas.com/BECOME A MEMBER OF THE IC: https://NickJFreitas.comInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/nickjfreitas/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickFreitasVATwitter: https://twitter.com/NickJFreitasYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NickjfreitasTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@nickfreitas3.000:00:00 – Why peace talks between the United States and Iran failed.00:01:07 – Trump's strategy regarding Iranian failure to open the straits.00:04:16 – Exploring the deal breaker points in the nuclear negotiation.00:09:46 – Primary and secondary sanctions versus the threat of war.00:14:07 – Iran's use of proxies and the conflict in Lebanon.00:19:50 – Why Iran does not actually control the Strait of Hormuz.00:23:42 – Trump's official statement on the blockade and illegal extortion.00:28:13 – Global oil prices and the impact on the economy.00:44:52 – Operational environments and motivating the United States voting population.00:54:37 – Why Americans prioritize domestic issues over foreign military conflicts

The incoming prime minister of Hungary struck a hopeful tone on Monday. Peter Magyar called for a swift transition of power and began to chart an ambitious course to reverse central pillars of Viktor Orbán's rule. Stephanie Sy discussed how the results could reverberate around the globe with Kim Lane Scheppele, a professor at Princeton University who lived and worked in Hungary. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Global tensions are rising, and questions about leadership and moral authority are front and center. Pope Leo calls for decency and clarity as the crisis deepens. Steve Schmidt breaks down the escalating conflict, the political fallout, and the risks the world is now facing. Todays Merch: https://thewarningwithsteveschmidt.com/products/the-american-nero-hoodie Subscribe for more and follow me here:Substack: https://steveschmidt.substack.com/subscribeStore: https://thewarningwithsteveschmidt.com/Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/thewarningses.bsky.socialFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/SteveSchmidtSES/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thewarningsesInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thewarningses/X: https://x.com/SteveSchmidtSESSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What is discipleship? Is it teaching or spiritual practices? Mentorship or community? Global mission or serving the poor? Yes—it's all of those things. But not just one. Join us as Ross Lester explores the simple yet often over-complicated question: What does it mean to follow Jesus?

In this episode of Beekeeping Today Podcast, Jeff Ott and Becky Masterman welcome Dr. Dewey Caron for a wide-ranging discussion on Varroa management, beekeeping education, and the evolving work of the Honey Bee Health Coalition. Dewey shares his journey from academic entomology to a "retirement" filled with teaching, research, and extension work across the Pacific Northwest. Now based in Oregon, he continues to educate beekeepers through presentations, writing, and his monthly Bee Science series on the podcast. A central focus of the episode is Dewey's work with the Honey Bee Health Coalition (HBHC), which brings together researchers, beekeepers, industry representatives, and regulators to provide science-based, unbiased guidance for honey bee health. Dewey explains how the Coalition's Tools for Varroa Management guide has evolved since its first release in 2014 and is now approaching its ninth edition. One of the most important updates discussed is a shift in recommended Varroa thresholds. Where beekeepers once tolerated higher mite levels, emerging research and field experience show that even low mite counts—around 1%—can present significant risk due to the viruses Varroa mites vector, including Deformed Wing Virus (DWV) and related pathogens. The conversation also highlights the Coalition's decision tool, which helps beekeepers navigate treatment options based on their management style, seasonal timing, and colony conditions. Dewey emphasizes that successful Varroa management is not about a single product, but about integrating monitoring, thresholds, and multiple control strategies. The episode also touches on Dewey's long-running Pacific Northwest colony loss survey, offering insights into overwintering success, beekeeper experience levels, and management practices across the region. This episode reinforces a key message: effective beekeeping today requires informed, proactive Varroa management grounded in science and adapted to changing conditions. Websites from the episode and others we recommend: Honey Bee Health Coalition: https://honeybeehealthcoalition.org Project Apis m. (PAm): https://www.projectapism.org The National Honey Board: https://honey.com Honey Bee Obscura Podcast: https://honeybeeobscura.com   Copyright © 2026 by Growing Planet Media, LLC     ______________ Betterbee is the presenting sponsor of Beekeeping Today Podcast. Betterbee's mission is to support every beekeeper with excellent customer service, continued education and quality equipment. From their colorful and informative catalog to their support of beekeeper educational activities, including this podcast series, Betterbee truly is Beekeepers Serving Beekeepers. See for yourself at www.betterbee.com This episode is brought to you by Global Patties! Global offers a variety of standard and custom patties. Visit them today at http://globalpatties.com and let them know you appreciate them sponsoring this episode!  As a beekeeper, you want products that benefit you and your bees. When you choose Premier Bee Products, you choose hive components that are healthier for bees and more productive for you. Because we believe that in beekeeping, details make all the difference. Premier Bee Products: Better for bees. Better for beekeepers. Use promo code PODCAST for 10% off your next online order. APIS Tactical is a beekeeping brand focused on innovation. We create a wide range of gear for beekeepers of all types—whether you're managing a few hives or working bees every day. We combine science and artistry to create purposeful, hardworking gear. We're here to help you care for your bees with confidence, so you can focus on what matters most—your hive. Thanks to Strong Microbials for their support of Beekeeping Today Podcast. Find out more about their line of probiotics in our Season 3, Episode 12 episode and from their website: https://www.strongmicrobials.com HiveIQ is revolutionizing the way beekeepers manage their colonies with innovative, insulated hive systems designed for maximum colony health and efficiency. Their hives maintain stable temperatures year-round, reduce stress on the bees, and are built to last using durable, lightweight materials. Whether you're managing two hives or two hundred, HiveIQ's smart design helps your bees thrive while saving you time and effort. Learn more at HiveIQ.com. We'd like to thank Vita Bee Health for supporting the podcast. Vita provides proven tools for controlling Varroa—from Apistan and Apiguard to the new VarroxSan extended-release oxalic acid strips—helping beekeepers keep stronger, healthier colonies. Thanks for Northern Bee Books for their support. Northern Bee Books is the publisher of bee books available worldwide from their website or from Amazon and bookstores everywhere. They are also the publishers of The Beekeepers Quarterly and Natural Bee Husbandry. _______________ We hope you enjoy this podcast and welcome your questions and comments in the show notes of this episode or: questions@beekeepingtodaypodcast.com Thank you for listening!  Podcast music: Be Strong by Young Presidents; Epilogue by Musicalman; Faraday by BeGun; Walking in Paris by Studio Le Bus; A Fresh New Start by Pete Morse; Wedding Day by Boomer; Christmas Avenue by Immersive Music; Red Jack Blues by Daniel Hart; Bolero de la Fontero  by Rimsky Music; Perfect Sky by Graceful Movement; I'm Not Running Away This Time by Max Brodie; Original guitar background instrumental by Jeff Ott. Beekeeping Today Podcast is an audio production of Growing Planet Media, LLC ** As an Amazon Associate, we may earn a commission from qualifying purchases Copyright © 2026 by Growing Planet Media, LLC

1 Samuel 18-20, Psalm 11, Psalm 59

We are now in what's being described as the countdown phase to a historic shift in global maritime power—centered on the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S.-backed naval operation, mine-sweeping activity, and strategic positioning are all converging on a single chokepoint that controls a massive share of the world's energy flow. And the question being asked is simple but explosive: Who controls global trade—pirates or the world's lone superpower?

A bold escalation from Donald Trump is reshaping global power in real time. With the U.S. moving to enforce control over the Strait of Hormuz and crack down on illegal tolls tied to Iran, the stakes couldn't be higher. China's influence, global trade routes, and the future of the U.S. dollar are all on the line. Meanwhile, a shocking admission from Thomas Friedman reveals just how politically charged this moment has become.

We are now hours away from what's being described as a full-scale blockade of a critical global shipping chokepoint—and the stakes are being framed as nothing short of economic warfare, geopolitical reset, and military escalation all at once. Mine-sweeping operations. Naval positioning. Strategic strikes on infrastructure. And a message being sent across the world: pay the wrong toll, and you may not make it through the strait.

A week of foreign policy whiplash turns into a major global reset. After a controversial moment involving Marco Rubio and talk of foreign control over key trade routes, Donald Trump reverses course—taking a firm stance against China and Iran influencing the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, nuclear negotiations collapse with Iran, raising serious questions about its intentions—and how close it may be to developing nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, traditional alliances are fracturing. Some nations step up, others step back, and the global balance of power looks more uncertain than ever.

A major political scandal collides with global geopolitical tension as allegations against Congressman Eric Swalwell resurface while broader debates over Iran, China, and maritime control intensify. At the center of it all: accusations of corruption, foreign influence, and a global struggle over who controls critical trade chokepoints.

In this "Hot Takes" episode, Robyn and Colleen dive into trending spiritual dilemmas from the Reddit Reiki community. They explore the common experience of feeling isolated after a spiritual awakening, the intense "WTF" energy of the current global shift, and the nuances of using Reiki alongside therapy. They also tackle a complex listener story about "soul-tie" relationships and the importance of practitioner ethics, discernment, and maintaining your own inner authority when receiving spiritual messages. In This Episode, You Will Learn: •    Discover why spiritual awakenings can lead to a temporary phase of loneliness and how to find your "new" community. •    Master the use of Reiki symbols as "frequency regulators" to stay grounded in chaotic social or global environments. •    Explore the intersection of Reiki and how to support your nervous system during deep trauma processing. •    Identify the signs of "giving your power away" to spiritual practitioners and how to reclaim your inner authority.  •    Understand the difference between a "soulmate" connection and a healthy life partnership, and when it is time to release energetic cords. Mentioned in this Episode: •    Books: The Power of Now by Eckhart Tolle. •    Reiki Symbols: The Power Symbol (Cho Ku Rei), Zonar, Halu, Hearth (Karuna Reiki®), and the Animal Reiki Symbol. •    Concepts: The "Witch Wound," Epigenetics, and Soul Coherence. •    Guests Referenced: Michaela Daystar (Trauma-Informed Reiki) and Dr. Jennifer Lisa Best (The Ethical Psychic). Connect with Colleen & Robyn •    Website: ReikiLifestyle.com •    Online Classes: Register for upcoming Reiki Training •    YouTube: Watch our Video Discussions & Journeys •    Instagram: @reikilifestyleofficial Join Our Community •    Free Online Distance Reiki Share: Join us every Tuesday from 9:30 am – 11:00 am Pacific Time for a global healing circle. •    colleen@reikilifestyle.com For Questions •    Free Consultation Call with Danni 

Josh 5:1-7:15, Luke 15:1-32, Ps 81:1-16, Pr 13:1

A BBC investigation has heard from hundreds of people who say they developed sex and gambling addictions after taking a category of prescription drugs called dopamine agonists. Millions of people in the US and around the world have been prescribed these medications, which are used to treat various illnesses, from Parkinson's to depression. But they have well-established side effects: around 1 in 6 people who take them develop impulse control disorders. Noel Titheradge, investigations correspondent, shares the story of one American woman who developed hypersexuality after she took a dopamine agonist drug. Like many of the patients Noel has spoken to, she says she was not warned that her medication could dramatically change her personality. Noel's investigation is also a BBC podcast series. Search for ‘Shadow World: Impulsive'. If you have any concerns about medication you're taking, speak to your doctor. For further information on the issues raised in the programme, contact support organisations in your own country. For a list of organisations in the UK that can provide support go to bbc.co.uk/actionline. The Global Story brings clarity to politics, business and foreign policy in a time of connection and disruption. For more episodes, just search 'The Global Story' wherever you get your BBC Podcasts.Producers: Viv Jones Executive producer: Bridget Harney Mix: Travis Evans Senior news editor: China Collins Photo: A mixture of pills. Credit: Lauren Hurley/PA Wire

Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a close ally of both President Trump and Russia's Vladimir Putin, conceded defeat in an historic election in Hungary. The results of the vote will have far reaching consequences, potentially reshaping the central European country's relationship with the EU and laying bare the weaknesses of Orban's style of far-right, nationalist populism.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Email us at considerthis@npr.org.This episode was produced by Michael Levitt, Mate Halmos and Daniel Ofman.It was edited by Sarah Robbins.Our executive producer is Sami Yenigun.To manage podcast ad preferences, review the links below:See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy