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    The John Batchelor Show
    S8 Ep426: Jim McTague notes steady but quiet business activity in Lancaster, describes local approval for a new data center, and reports on overlooked global cod shortages affecting seafood markets.

    The John Batchelor Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2026 9:01


    Jim McTague notes steady but quiet business activity in Lancaster, describes local approval for a new data center, and reports on overlooked global cod shortages affecting seafood markets.1910 SCRANTON

    World Business Report
    The EU gets tough with TikTok

    World Business Report

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 7, 2026 26:27


    With TikTok being told by the EU to change what it believes is an 'addictive design' or face fines, we speak to cyber-psychologist Dr Sarah Hodge, and France's ambassador for digital affairs and AI, Clara Chappaz, on whether the continent is set to follow Australia's lead and ban children below the 16-years-old from using social media. Will Grant reports on the latest as the critical fuel crisis in Cuba worsens and Havana's fuel pumps run dry. Elsewhere, we look to Japan as the nation heads to the polls this weekend, and Ed Butler hears from Professor Maria Rodas on what it takes to make the perfect Superbowl commercial. Global business news, with live guests and contributions from Europe, Latin America and the USA.(Picture: A TikTok logo is seen in front of the headquarters of the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium. Credit: Olivier Hoslet / EPA / Shutterstock.)

    Thoughts on the Market
    For Better or Warsh

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 12:14


    Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

    The Meb Faber Show
    Dan Rasmussen & D.A. Wallach on Biotech's Surge, China, IPOs, US Valuations & Japan | #617

    The Meb Faber Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 74:53


    Today's returning guests are Dan Rasmussen, founder of Verdad Advisers, and D.A. Wallach, a venture capital investor for Time BioVentures. In today's episode, we unpack the recent biotech surge through the lens of Dan's recently published biotech report. We also explore China's growing biotech market, shifting IPO and VC trends, and how valuation tools like CAPE fit into today's regime. Finally, we also discuss technology's effect on productivity and corporate profits in the US, Japan's economic anomaly, home country bias, and more. (0:00) Starts (1:20) Dan's research on the biotech sector (19:10) D.A. on biotech in China (27:01) IPO landscape (31:01) Biotech VC update from D.A. (32:16) Are US stocks overvalued? (51:53) Dan's view of Japanese stocks (57:40) Global equity markets and home country bias (1:03:34) Book recommendations (1:11:55) Wrap-up and future plans ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- ⁠ ----- Sponsor: Visit ⁠⁠Alpha Architect's 351 Education Center⁠⁠ for use cases, tools, FAQs, upcoming launches, and more. Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    The Tucker Carlson Show
    Tucker Responds to the Epstein Files, Pizzagate & the Demonic Global Crime Network with Ian Carroll

    The Tucker Carlson Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 76:47


    It looks like Pizzagate is basically real. Ian Carroll explains. (00:00) Monologue (12:01) What Is Pizzagate? (26:28) The Elites' Demonic Ritualistic Child Abuse (32:16) The Disgusting Governmental Cover-up of Epstein's Atrocities (57:52) Will This Corruption Continue? Paid partnerships with: Masa Chips: Get 25% off with code TUCKER at https://masachips.com/tucker Defend: Enter code "Tucker" for 20% off your purchase at https://defendcellcam.com Joi + Blokes: Use code TUCKER for 50% off your labs and 20% off all supplements at https://joiandblokes.com/tucker Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    KQED’s Forum
    How Bad Bunny Fuses Activism and Global Superstardom

    KQED’s Forum

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 54:51


    One week ahead of his much-anticipated Super Bowl performance, Bad Bunny made history when he won the first Grammy for album of the year for a Spanish-language record. He used his acceptance remarks to admonish cruel immigration enforcement, uplift immigrants and shout out his native Puerto Rico. As scholars Vanessa Díaz and Petra Rivera-Rideau, point out in their new book, “P FKN R: How Bad Bunny Became the Global Voice of Puerto Rican Resistance,” the reggaetonero has never shied away from infusing politics into his musical career. Díaz and Rivera-Rideau, also creators of the “Bad Bunny Syllabus,” join us to break down Bad Bunny's music and activism. Guests: Vanessa Díaz, associate professor of Chicana/o and Latina/o Studies, Loyola Marymount University; co-founder, Bad Bunny Syllabus; co-author, "P FKN R: How Bad Bunny Became the Global Voice of Puerto Rican Resistance" Petra Rivera-Rideau, associate professor and chair of the American Studies Department, Wellesley College; co-founder, Bad Bunny Syllabus; co-author, "P FKN R: How Bad Bunny Became the Global Voice of Puerto Rican Resistance" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Beyond The Horizon
    Jeffrey Epstein: The Ultimate Free Agent in the Global Information Market (2/5/26)

    Beyond The Horizon

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 10:30 Transcription Available


    Jeffrey Epstein operated as a free agent in the information market, not as a loyal asset of any single government, intelligence service, or political faction, but as a broker who understood that information itself was currency. He cultivated access to powerful people across finance, academia, politics, intelligence, and royalty, positioning himself as the connective tissue between elites who otherwise would not openly associate. Epstein gathered kompromat not just through sexual abuse, but through proximity—private flights, secluded residences, off-the-books meetings, and social environments where guardrails disappeared. He traded in favors, introductions, secrets, and silence, making himself useful to multiple parties simultaneously. That usefulness is what insulated him for so long: he was not owned, but leased—temporarily valuable to anyone who needed discretion, leverage, or deniability. In that ecosystem, Epstein's power came not from allegiance, but from optionality.At the core of it all, Epstein's only loyalty was to himself. He did not operate as a patriot, an ideologue, or a true intelligence operative in the traditional sense; he operated as a survivalist within elite power structures. He provided information where it benefited him, withheld it when it didn't, and shifted alliances as needed to maintain protection. This is why he could simultaneously assist different governments, ingratiate himself with rival power centers, and still remain untouchable for decades. Epstein's genius—if the term can be used—was recognizing that being indispensable to everyone meant being accountable to no one. His operation was built on mutual exposure and shared risk, ensuring that when the walls finally began to close in, there were too many people with too much to lose for the system to act swiftly. In the end, Epstein wasn't a pawn—he was a freelance operator who sold access, secrets, and silence, always in service of preserving his own power and immunity.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.com

    Crazy Wisdom
    Episode #529: Semantic Sovereignty: Why Knowledge Graphs Beat $100 Billion Context Graphs

    Crazy Wisdom

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 56:29


    In this episode of the Crazy Wisdom Podcast, host Stewart Alsop explores the complex world of context and knowledge graphs with guest Youssef Tharwat, the founder of NoodlBox who is building dot get for context. Their conversation spans from the philosophical nature of context and its crucial role in AI development, to the technical challenges of creating deterministic tools for software development. Tharwat explains how his product creates portable, versionable knowledge graphs from code repositories, leveraging the semantic relationships already present in programming languages to provide agents with better contextual understanding. They discuss the limitations of large context windows, the advantages of Rust for AI-assisted development, the recent Claude/Bun acquisition, and the broader geopolitical implications of the AI race between big tech companies and open-source alternatives. The conversation also touches on the sustainability of current AI business models and the potential for more efficient, locally-run solutions to challenge the dominance of compute-heavy approaches.For more information about NoodlBox and to join the beta, visit NoodlBox.io.Timestamps00:00 Stewart introduces Youssef Tharwat, founder of NoodlBox, building context management tools for programming05:00 Context as relevant information for reasoning; importance when hitting coding barriers10:00 Knowledge graphs enable semantic traversal through meaning vs keywords/files15:00 Deterministic vs probabilistic systems; why critical applications need 100% reliability20:00 CLI tool makes knowledge graphs portable, versionable artifacts with code repos25:00 Compiler front-ends, syntax trees, and Rust's superior feedback for AI-assisted coding30:00 Claude's Bun acquisition signals potential shift toward runtime compilation and graph-based context35:00 Open source vs proprietary models; user frustration with rate limits and subscription tactics40:00 Singularity path vs distributed sovereignty of developers building alternative architectures45:00 Global economics and why brute force compute isn't sustainable worldwide50:00 Corporate inefficiencies vs independent engineering; changing workplace dynamics55:00 February open beta for NoodlBox.io; vision for new development tool standardsKey Insights1. Context is semantic information that enables proper reasoning, and traditional LLM approaches miss the mark. Youssef defines context as the information you need to reason correctly about something. He argues that larger context windows don't scale because quality degrades with more input, similar to human cognitive limitations. This insight challenges the Silicon Valley approach of throwing more compute at the problem and suggests that semantic separation of information is more optimal than brute force methods.2. Code naturally contains semantic boundaries that can be modeled into knowledge graphs without LLM intervention. Unlike other domains where knowledge graphs require complex labeling, code already has inherent relationships like function calls, imports, and dependencies. Youssef leverages these existing semantic structures to automatically build knowledge graphs, making his approach deterministic rather than probabilistic. This provides the reliability that software development has historically required.3. Knowledge graphs can be made portable, versionable, and shareable as artifacts alongside code repositories. Youssef's vision treats context as a first-class citizen in version control, similar to how Git manages code. Each commit gets a knowledge graph snapshot, allowing developers to see conceptual changes over time and share semantic understanding with collaborators. This transforms context from an ephemeral concept into a concrete, manageable asset.4. The dependency problem in modern development can be solved through pre-indexed knowledge graphs of popular packages. Rather than agents struggling with outdated API documentation, Youssef pre-indexes popular npm packages into knowledge graphs that automatically integrate with developers' projects. This federated approach ensures agents understand exact APIs and current versions, eliminating common frustrations with deprecated methods and unclear documentation.5. Rust provides superior feedback loops for AI-assisted programming due to its explicit compiler constraints. Youssef rebuilt his tool multiple times in different languages, ultimately settling on Rust because its picky compiler provides constant feedback to LLMs about subtle issues. This creates a natural quality control mechanism that helps AI generate more reliable code, making Rust an ideal candidate for AI-assisted development workflows.6. The current AI landscape faces a fundamental tension between expensive centralized models and the need for global accessibility. The conversation reveals growing frustration with rate limiting and subscription costs from major providers like Claude and Google. Youssef believes something must fundamentally change because $200-300 monthly plans only serve a fraction of the world's developers, creating pressure for more efficient architectures and open alternatives.7. Deterministic tooling built on semantic understanding may provide a competitive advantage against probabilistic AI monopolies. While big tech companies pursue brute force scaling with massive data centers, Youssef's approach suggests that clever architecture using existing semantic structures could level the playing field. This represents a broader philosophical divide between the "singularity" path of infinite compute and the "disagreeably autistic engineer" path of elegant solutions that work locally and affordably.

    Omni Talk
    Walmart Goes Global with Marketplace Shipping | Fast Five Shorts

    Omni Talk

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 6:34


    This OmniTalk Retail Fast Five segment, sponsored by the A&M Consumer and Retail Group, Mirakl, Ocampo Capital, Infios, Quorso, and Veloq, breaks down Walmart's launch of cross-border marketplace shipping. Chris Walton and Anne Mezzenga, joined by A&M's Ken Cochran and Jon Malankar, explain why this move strengthens Walmart's marketplace flywheel, expands retail media opportunities, and positions Walmart as a true competitor to Amazon's FBA ecosystem. ⏩ Tune in for the full episode here: https://youtu.be/zqyHBYoL9N4 #Walmart #Marketplace #CrossBorderEcommerce #RetailMedia #EcommerceStrategy #AmazonFBA #GlobalRetail #RetailNews #OmniTalk

    JUDGE JULES PRESENTS THE GLOBAL WARM UP
    Episode 1144: JUDGE JULES PRESENTS THE GLOBAL WARM UP EPISODE 1144

    JUDGE JULES PRESENTS THE GLOBAL WARM UP

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 120:01


    1: REISS RUBEN - The Flame (Original Mix)2: AMEDEO PICONE, ABOUTME - Sunny Grooves (Extended Mix)3: TONY ROMERA, GENE FARRIS - Lazy (Extended Mix)4: J WORRA - Tell Me (Extended Mix)5: KH X NELLY FURTADO - Only Human (MPH Remix)  6: SHERMANOLOGY - That's My Ish (Extended Mix)7: ISGWAN X M-BEAT X GENERAL LEVY - Incredible Dub (Levy)8: COSMIC GATE & AVA SILVER - Let It All Out (Extended Mix) LISTENERS' CHOICE8:         PUSH – Legacy   10: ALOK, FAITHLESS & SAM HARPER, ALEX CHRISTENSEN -    (Extended Mix)11: MAU P - Neck (Extended Mix)12: WEVAL - Melchior's Dance 13: JES - Imagination (Paul Thomas Extended Remix) TRIED & TESTED14: ARGY, OMNYA - Aria (Omiki Remix) 15: LUMINE, GINO INGROSSO – I Hear No More16: ROMMII - Over The Block 17: ENTASIA, SIL & OLAV BASOSKI - Windows (Extended Mix) GUEST SELECTION:  MIA MENDIpast track is: Planet Perfecto - Bullet in the Gun (Adam Ellis Remix) Current track is: Mia Mendi & Blake Light - Lose Yourself THE WARM UP SELECTION 18: KARA OKAY – Say My Name19: KASKADE & CID FT. ANABEL ENGLUND – Vision Blurred20: HONEY DIJON – Slight Werk21: HELVIG – Feelings  THE MAINSTAGE MIX  22: MAURO PICOTTO & T78 - Papeye23: AIRWOLF PARADISE & WOLTERS – Din Daa Daa24: WIPPENBERG - The Path (Wippenberg Remix) 25: BEN GOLD & CIS – It Really Don't Matter26: WILL ATKINSON & BARTHEZZ - On The Move 27: DAVID FORBES - Skylines28: MADDIX & OLLY JAMES & HANNAH LAING - Transmission 

    AML Conversations
    From Sanctions to Seabeds: Global AML Shifts and Emerging Risks

    AML Conversations

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 15:32


    In this week's episode of This Week in AML, Elliot Berman and John Byrne cover a fast-moving landscape of regulatory, financial crime, and geopolitical developments across the U.S., EU, and beyond. They discuss the latest releases of Epstein-related files and the surprising absence of financial‑transaction disclosures, a Wall Street Journal investigation into a major foreign investment tied to AI chip access, and new insights into U.S. corporate tax transparency. The conversation moves through significant DOJ actions, a controversial ICE memo, and key UK updates on crypto-related sanctions, data‑quality failures, and public consultations. Elliot and John also explore new EU priorities for AMLA, research on illicit antiquities trafficking, a deep-sea mining corruption investigation, and the DOJ's 2025 Fraud Section Year‑in‑Review. If your work touches financial crime, sanctions, compliance, or emerging‑risk intelligence, this episode is packed with timely developments that matter.

    unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc
    618. Brand Global, Adapt Local: Insights with Katherine Melchior Ray

    unSILOed with Greg LaBlanc

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2026 55:37


    What challenges come with taking a marketing strategy global, and what strategies can be created to account for and even take advantage of differences from one market to another? How are differences in Japanese culture reflected in the buying practices of the population?Katherine Melchior Ray is a global marketing executive and consultant, who also teaches global marketing at UC Berkeley Haas School of Business, and is the author of the book Brand Global, Adapt Local: How to Build Brand Value Across Cultures.Greg and Katherine discuss the importance of both maintaining global brand consistency and adapting to local cultures. Katherine explains the history and evolving definition of marketing, the balance between data-driven strategies and creative intuition, and the necessity of cultural intelligence in global business. Throughout the conversation, Katherine shares anecdotes from her diverse career, offering insights into the challenges and strategies for successful global marketing.*unSILOed Podcast is produced by University FM.*Episode Quotes:What does it mean to be a global brand?13:51: Just because you can access it on a global level does not mean it is going to be relevant to you in your culture. And this is where it is tricky. So we have gone way beyond the Ted Levitt era, where you have global brands, but in order for them to connect, create meaning, which is where value lies, and ultimately loyalty with consumers in different cultures, they need to do both. And this is where the book title came, Brand Global. Be a global brand, hold certain things very consistent, but adapt local, and that is tricky. It is really tricky. Which aspects do you want to hold the same, and which aspects are you willing to flex?What is cultural intelligence and why is important in leadership39:21: We all know about emotional intelligence, and I think we have come to realize how important that is in leadership. Well, cultural intelligence takes us one step further. It relies on a lot of the aspects of emotional intelligence, but it adds culture on top of it. And basically, it is the ability to see and, and bridge cultural differences. So you do not have to be an expert in every culture. You do not have to know how to code, I guess, in technology. But you have to have a couple qualities that help you learn how to see what is often not actually being explicitly said with words.The notion of balance in brands18:52: When you think of a brand, the strongest brands actually do play simultaneously in opposite, seemingly opposite, directions, but really, those two seemingly opposed directions are complimentary, right? One might be the traditional side, and one is the innovative side. One might be the classical side, and the other is the trendy side. But actually, that duality gives the brand elasticity; it gives it range. So it can reach a lot more customers, and it gives it this inherent dynamism, tension, and excitement.Story is important for expansion20:20: The reason story is important is for expansion. You cannot control every aspect of a brand as you expand, right? Because the same people, like if you think of Steve Jobs, he could review every aspect of the computer as it was being designed. But as it was being marketed in different markets, in different countries, in different stores with different salespeople, you cannot control all of that. And so the way to create a form of consistency is by telling the same internal stories, and then those stories go externally so that everyone understands why certain things are in the way that the company operates and the brand shows up in products and services.Show Links:Recommended Resources:Louis VuittonPhilip KotlerTheodore LevittPark Hyatt | Masters of Food & WineSotheby'sXiaomiGuest Profile:KatherineMelchiorRay.comLinkedIn ProfileFaculty Profile at UC Berkeley Haas Business SchoolSocial Profile on ThreadsSocial Profile on XGuest Work:Brand Global, Adapt Local: How to Build Brand Value Across Cultures Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

    History Unplugged Podcast
    The Man Who Sold the War: Tom Paine's Journey from Common Sense to Global Firebrand

    History Unplugged Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 44:00


    Most of us only know Thomas Paine for one thing: writing Common Sense in 1776, which helped kickstart the Revolution by selling hundreds of thousands of copies. But he was far more than a writer. Paine actively served with George Washington's army during its darkest days and then used his pen to advocate for global freedom in both the French Revolution and against organized religion. His revolutionary fervor spanned the globe, leading him to champion the French Revolution with Rights of Man and challenge religious orthodoxy in The Age of Reason/ Paine's later involvement with the French Revolution, his Enlightenment opinions, and his unorthodox view of religion plunged his reputation into a controversy that continues to this day. Today’s guest is Jack Kelly, author of “Tom Paine's War: The Words That Rallied a Nation and the Founder for Our Time.” We look at how Paine shaped the war. He convinced the colonies that war should grow from a reform movement to a full revolution: The entire British system of hereditary monarchy and aristocratic rule was a form of tyranny, making the case that separation from Great Britain the only logical course for America.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Wright Report
    05 FEB 2026: Trump's Good Economic News: Houses and Mines // Market Madness: The AI Revolution Strikes // Dems vs. Trump: The Immigration Fight Cont // Global: Mexico, Bolivia, China, Panama, Russia, Iran

    The Wright Report

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 34:41


    Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this Thursday Headline Brief of The Wright Report, Bryan leads with good news as President Trump's Five Bucket Strategy gains momentum, including a major international minerals pact designed to break China's grip on critical resources and early signs of a new rent-to-own housing pathway for young and middle-income Americans. He then explains why the AI Revolution is rattling markets and jobs alike, as new tools automate white-collar work faster than expected, raising hard questions about wages, employment, and who benefits from the coming productivity boom. Back at the border, Bryan details a quieter shift in Minnesota as local law enforcement begins cooperating more closely with ICE, allowing federal agents to pull back from street arrests and reduce risk, even as Democrats and judges escalate rhetoric and legal resistance. The episode pivots global with updates on cartel expansion into illegal vape trafficking in Mexico, a dramatic political turn in Bolivia as Chinese-backed projects are canceled and a former Marxist president vanishes, fresh evidence that China is massively expanding coal power despite climate promises, rising tensions over the Panama Canal, deepening financial strain on Russia as India weighs oil cuts, and renewed maneuvering with Iran that could set the stage for another major U.S. strike.   "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32     Keywords: February 5 2026 Wright Report, Five Bucket Strategy minerals pact China, rare earth price floor Western mining, Argentina lithium copper Rubio, rent-to-own housing builders plan, AI Revolution market volatility Anthropic Claude, OpenClaw personalized AI risk, Minnesota ICE cooperation Tom Homan lighter touch, Democrats judges resist ICE, Rio Grande buoy wall Operation River Wall, Mexico cartel vape pens, Bolivia cancels China zinc project Morales missing, China coal expansion climate hypocrisy, Panama Canal cyber threat China, Russia oil revenue drop India decision, Iran nuclear talks Operation Midnight Hammer II

    Thoughts on the Market
    The Fed's Course Under a New Chair

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 11:00


    Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the path for U.S. interest rates after the nomination of Kevin Warsh for next Fed chair.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today we'll be talking about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that occurred last week.It's Thursday, February 5th at 8:30 am in New York.So, Mike, last week we had the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2026. What were your general impressions from the meeting? And how did it compare to what you had thought going in? Michael Gapen: Well, Matt, I think that the main question for markets was how hawkish a hold or how dovish a hold would this be. As you know, it was widely expected the Fed would be on hold. The incoming data had been fairly solid. Inflation wasn't all that concerning, and most of the employment data suggested things had stabilized. So, it was clear they were going to pause. The question was would they pause or would they be on pause, right? And in our view, it was more of a dovish hold. And by that, it suggests to us, or they suggested to us, I should say, that they still have an easing bias and rates should generally move lower over time. So, that really was the key takeaway for me. Would they signal a prolonged pause and perhaps suggest that they might be done with the easing cycle? Or would they say, yes, we've stopped for now, but we still expect to cut rates later? Perhaps when inflation comes down and therefore kind of retain a dovish bias or an easing bias in the policy rate path. So, to me, that was the main takeaway. Matthew Hornbach: Of course, as we all know, there are supposed to be some personnel changes on the committee this year. And Chair Powell was asked several questions to try to get at the future of this committee and what he himself was going to do personally. What was your impression of his response and what were the takeaways from that part of the press conference? Michael Gapen: Well, clearly, he's been reluctant to, say, pre-announce what he may do when his term is chair ends in May. But his term as a governor extends into 2028. So, he has options. He could leave normally that's what happens. But he could also stay and he's never really made his intentions clear on that part. I think for maybe personal or professional reasons. But he has his own; he has his own reasons and, and that's fine. And I do think the recent subpoena by the DOJ has changed the calculus in that. At least my own view is that it makes it more likely that he stays around. It may be easier for him to act in response to that subpoena by being on staff. It's a request for additional information; he needs access to that information. I think you could construct a reasonable scenario under which, ‘Well, I have to see this through, therefore, I may stay around.' But maybe he hasn't come to that conclusion yet. And then stepping back, that just complicates the whole picture in the sense that we now know the administration has put forward Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. Will he be replacing the seat that Jay Powell currently sits in? Will he be replacing the seat that Stephen Myron is sitting in? So yes, we have a new name being put forward, but it's not exactly clear where that slot will be; and what the composition of the committee will look like. Matthew Hornbach: Well, you beat me to the punch on mentioning Kevin Warsh… Michael Gapen: I kind of assumed that's where you were going. Matthew Hornbach: It was going to be my next question. I'm curious as to what you think that means for Fed policy later this year, if anything. And what it might mean more medium term? Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, first of all, congratulations to Mr. Warsh on the appointment. In terms of what we think it means for the outlook for the Fed's reaction function and interest rate policy, we doubt that there will be a material change in the Fed's reaction function. His previous public remarks don't suggest his views on interest rate policy are substantively outside the mainstream, or at least certainly the collective that's already in the FOMC. Some people would prefer not to ease. The majority of the committee still sees a couple more rate cuts ahead of them. Warsh is generally aligned with that, given his public remarks. But then also all the reserve bank presidents have been renominated. There's an ongoing Supreme Court case about the ability of the administration to fire Lisa Cook. If that is not successful, then Kevin Warsh will arrive in an FOMC where there's 16 other people who all get a say. So, the chair's primary responsibility is to build a consensus; to herd the cats, so to speak. To communicate to markets and communicate to the public. So, if Mr. Warsh wanted to deviate substantially from where the committee was, he would have to build a consensus to do that. So, we think, at least in the near term, the reaction function won't change. It'll be driven by the data, whether the labor market holds up, whether inflation, decelerates as expected. So, we don't look for material change. Now you also asked about the medium term. I do think where his views differ, at least with respect to current Fed policy is on the size of the Fed's balance sheet and its footprint in financial markets. So, he has argued over time for a much smaller balance sheet. He's called the Fed's balance sheet bloated. He has said that it creates distortions in markets, which mean interest rates could be higher than they otherwise would be. And so, I think if there is a substantive change in Fed policy going forward, it could be there on the balance sheet. But what I would just say on that is it'll likely take a lot of coordination with Treasury. It will likely take changes in rules, regulations, the supervisory landscape. Because if you want to reduce the balance sheet further without creating volatility in financial markets, you have to find a way to reduce bank demand for it. So, this will take time, it'll take study, it'll take patience. I wouldn't look for big material changes right out of the box. So Matt, what I'd like to do is, if I could flip it back to you, Warsh was certainly one of the expected candidates, right? So, his name is not a surprise. But as we knew financial markets, one day we're thinking it'd be one candidate. The next day it'd be thinking at the next it was somebody else. How did you see markets reacting to the announcement of Mr. Warsh? For the next Fed share, and then maybe put that in context of where markets were coming out of the last FOMC meeting. Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the markets that moved the most were not the traditional, very large macro markets like the interest rate marketplace or the foreign exchange market. The markets that moved the most were the prediction markets. These newer markets that offer investors the ability to wager on different outcomes for a whole variety of events around the world. But when it comes to the implications of a Kevin Warsh led Fed – for the bigger macro markets like interest rates and currencies, the question really comes down to how? If the Fed's balance sheet policies are going to take a while to implement, those are not going to have an immediate effect, at least not an effect that is easily seen with the human eye. But it's other types of policy change in terms of his communication policy, for example. One of the points that you raised in your recent note, Mike, was how Kevin Warsh favored less communication than perhaps some of the recent, Federal Open Market Committees had with the public. And so, if there is some kind of a retrenchment from the type of over-communication to the marketplace, from either committee members or non-voters that could create a bit more volatility in the marketplace. Of course, the Fed has been one of the central banks that does not like to surprise the markets in terms of its monetary policy making. And so, that contrasts with other central banks in the G10. For example, the Swiss National Bank tends to surprise quite a lot. The Reserve Bank of Australia tends to surprise markets. More often, certainly than the Fed does. So, to the extent that there's some change in communication strategy going forward that could lead to more volatile interest rate in currency markets. And that then could cause investors to demand more risk premium to invest in those markets. If you previously were comfortable owning a longer duration Treasury security because you felt very comfortable with the future path of Fed policy, then a Kevin Warsh led Fed – if it decides to change the communication strategy – could naturally lead investors to demand more risk premium in their investments. And that, of course, would lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury curve, all else equal. So that would be one of the main effects that I could see happen in markets as a result of some potential changes that the Fed may consider going forward. So, Mike, with that said, this was the first FOMC meeting of the year, and the next meeting arrives in March. I guess we'll just have to wait between now and then to see if the Fed is on hold for a longer period of time or whether or not the data convinced them to move as soon as the March meeting. Thanks for taking time to talk, Mike. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

    Markus Schulz Presents Global DJ Broadcast
    Global DJ Broadcast - World Tour: In Search of Sunrise Live, London 2026

    Markus Schulz Presents Global DJ Broadcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 120:02


    The first official In Search of Sunrise Live event for 2026 took place in London, a city holding deep footprints of influence in Markus Schulz's life and career. Describing the experience as a night defined by emotion, connection and transcendence, the atmosphere is captured for the Global DJ Broadcast World Tour series. This special set live from Outernet journeys through exclusive remixes, new productions and In Search of Sunrise reinterpretations, reflecting the more melodic and atmospheric side of Markus' sound. From intimate moments to peak-time release, the energy of the crowd and the spirit of ISOS combine to create a truly timeless experience.   Markus Schulz (Recorded Live from HERE at Outernet, London - January 31 2026) 01. Markus Schulz x BLR - Ten Seconds Before Sunrise 02. Robert Nickson presents RAHB - Heliopause 2025 03. Markus Schulz & Matt Fax - The New World 04. Markus Schulz - Remember This (ID Remix) 05. Tiësto & FORS - Bring Me to Life (Markus Schulz Remix) 06. Daxson - Second Sunrise 07. Ilan Bluestone presents Stoneblue featuring Emma Hewitt - Hypnotized (Markus Schulz Remix) 08. Grace - Orange (ID Remix) 09. Nemke -Stampedo 10. Giuseppe Ottaviani - Till We Meet Again 11. Daxson - While We Wait 12. BT featuring Jan Johnson - Remember (Markus Schulz In Search of Sunrise Remix) 13. Markus Schulz presents Dakota - Faultline (ID Remix) 14. Markus Schulz - Forgotten Element 15. Shadow Assembly - Elarion 16. Duderstadt & Davey Asprey vs. Markus Schulz & Nikki Flores - We Are the Light of Muhanjala (Markus Schulz Mashup) 17. Markus Schulz - Lisbon 18. Jardin - Illuminate 19. Markus Schulz x Arkham Knights - Vanderbilt 20. Who.Is - We.Are (Markus Schulz In Search of Sunrise Remix) 21. Mesh - Purple Haze (Dave Neven Remix) 22. Daxson - Who We Are 23. Fish56Octagon x Plastic Boy -  Silver Bath 24. Jardin - Shift 25. Markus Schulz featuring Delacey - Destiny (ID Remix) 26. Rapid Eye - Circa-Forever (Markus Schulz Down the Rabbit Hole Remix) 27. Robert Nickson - Rocket Surgery 28. Markus Schulz - Simulated 29. Markus Schulz, C-Systems & Ana Diaz - Nothing Without Me 30. Markus Schulz - Sunrise Over the Bay (Daxson Remix) 31. Markus Schulz - What Remains of Us 32. Matt Fax vs. Solarstone - Ascended Cities (Ferry Corsten Mashup)  

    Stephan Livera Podcast
    Are DLCs the Solution to Bitcoin Lending? with Matt Black & Jay Patel | SLP716

    Stephan Livera Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 45:19


    In this episode, Stephan Livera discusses with Jay & Matt the evolution of Lygos Finance, a company formed from the acquisition of Atomic Finance, focusing on decentralized lending using Discreet Log Contracts (DLCs). The conversation explores the growth of the Bitcoin collateralized lending market, the unique position of Lygos in offering non-custodial loans, and the role of Oracles in determining loan outcomes. The hosts delve into the flexible loan terms and competitive interest rates offered by Lygos, as well as the platform's global reach and future developments in user experience and funding mechanisms.Takeaways:

    Judging Freedom
    Pepe Escobar : The Global Fallout From Striking Iran

    Judging Freedom

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 25:53


    Pepe Escobar : The Global Fallout From Striking IranSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

    Spencer & Vogue
    BONUS: Heated Rivalry & Carrots in Condoms

    Spencer & Vogue

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 25:56


    On this week's Bonus Ep: Amber deep-dives into everything she's watching - Heated Rivalry anyone? And Vogue is dreaming of child-free afternoons. Plus, Agony Amb tackles a relationship issue that might have gone too far, a brutally awkward teenage sex-toy confession involving root vegetables, and a bridesmaid betrayal that proves some “best friends” are anything but.Remember, if you want to get involved you can:Watch us on Youtube! CLICK HERE! or search Vogue & AmberEmail us at vogueandamberpod@gmail.com OR find us on socials @voguewilliams @ambrerosolero and @vogueandamberListen and subscribe to Vogue & Amber on Global Player or wherever you get your podcasts.Please review Global's Privacy Policy: https://global.com/legal/privacy-policy/

    Stock Pickers
    BÔNUS - O RETORNO SILENCIOSO DO JAPÃO AO MERCADO GLOBAL

    Stock Pickers

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2026 9:48


    Durante décadas, o Japão foi sinônimo de estagnação. Mas nem sempre foi assim. Nos anos 80, o país chegou a representar quase metade do mercado acionário global, virou o centro do capital mundial e parecia ter encontrado o modelo econômico definitivo. Depois, veio o estouro da bolha, os juros zero, as “décadas perdidas” e o desaparecimento do radar dos investidores.Neste episódio bônus do Stock Pickers, Lucas Collazo conta a história completa do Japão: da industrialização acelerada à maior bolha de ativos da história, da estagnação prolongada às mudanças silenciosas que estão recolocando o país no centro das discussões globais. Governança corporativa, fim dos juros negativos, iene fraco, valuation descontado e a volta do fluxo estrangeiro entram na conta.Entenda mais em um episódio sobre ciclos longos e como o mercado volta a olhar para ativos que ficaram baratos por tempo demais.

    Thoughts on the Market
    Affordability Takes Center Stage in U.S. Policy

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 6:13


    Affordability is back in focus in D.C. after the brief U.S. shutdown. Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore look at some proposals in play.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the continued focus on affordability, and how to parse signals from the noise on different policy proposals coming out of D.C.It's Wednesday, February 4th at 10am in New York. Ariana Salvatore: President Trump signed a bill yesterday, ending the partial government shutdown that had been in place for the past few days. But affordability is still in focus. It's something that our clients have been asking about a lot. And we might hear more news when the president delivers his State of the Union address on February 24th and possibly delivers his budget proposal, which should be around the same time. So, needless to say, it's still a topic that investors have been asking us about and one that we think warrants a little bit more scrutiny. Michael Zezas: But maybe before we get into how to think about these affordability policies, we should hit on what we're seeing as the real pressure points in the debate. Ariana, you recently did some work with our economists. What were some of your findings? Ariana Salvatore: So, Heather Berger and the rest of our U.S. econ[omics] team highlighted three groups in particular that are feeling more of the affordability crunch, so to speak. That's lower income consumers, younger consumers, and renters or recent home buyers. Lower income households have experienced persistently higher inflation and more recently weaker wage growth. Younger consumers were hit hardest when inflation peaked and are more exposed to higher borrowing costs. And lastly, renters and recent buyers are dealing with much higher shelter burdens that aren't fully captured in standard inflation metrics. Now, the reason I laid all that out is because these are also the cohorts where the president's approval ratings have seen the largest declines. Michael Zezas: Right. And so, it makes sense that those are the groups where the administration might be targeting some of these affordability initiatives. Ariana Salvatore: That's right. But that's not the only variable that they're solving for. Broadly speaking, we think that the president and Republicans in Congress really need to solve for four things when it comes to affordability policies. First, targeting these quote right cohorts, which are those, as we mentioned, that have either moved furthest away from the president politically, or have been the most under pressure. Second feasibility, right? So even if Republicans can agree on certain policies, getting them procedurally through Congress can still be a challenge. Third timing – just because the legislative calendar is so tight ahead of the November elections. And fourth speed of disbursement. So basically, how long it would take these policies to translate to an uplift for consumers ahead of the elections. Michael Zezas: So, thinking through each of these constraints, starting with how easy it might be to actually get some of these policies done, most of the policies that are being proposed on the housing side require congressional approval. In terms of these cohorts, it seems like these policies are most likely to focus on – that seems aimed at lower-income and younger voters. And in terms of timing, we know the legislative calendar is tight ahead of the midterms, and the policy makers want to pursue things that can be enacted quickly and show up for voters as soon as possible. Ariana Salvatore: So, using that lens, we think the most realistic near-term tools are probably mostly executive actions. Think agency directives and potential changes to tariff policy. If we do see a second reconciliation bill emerge, it will probably move more slowly but likely cover some of those housing related tax credit changes. But of course, not all these policies would move the needle in the same way. What do we think matters most from a macro perspective? Michael Zezas: So, what our economists have argued is that the affordability policies being discussed – tax credits subsidies, payment pauses – they could be meaningful at a micro level for targeted households, but for the most part, they don't materially change the macro outlook. The exception might be tariffs; that probably has the broadest and most sustained impact on affordability because it directly affects inflation. Lower tariffs would narrow inflation differentials across cohorts, support real income growth and make it easier for the Fed to cut rates. Ariana Salvatore: Right. And just to add a finer point on that, I think directionally speaking, this is where we've seen the administration moving in recent months. Remember, towards the end of last year, the Trump administration placed an exemption on a lot of agricultural imports. And just the other day, we heard news that the trade deal with India was finalized reducing the overall tariff rate to 18 percent from about 50 percent prior. Michael Zezas: Okay. So, putting it all together for what investors need to know. We see three key takeaways. First, even absent new policy, our economists expect some improvement in affordability this year as inflation decelerates and rate cuts come into view. And specifically, when we talk about improvements in affordability, what our economists are referring to is income growth consistently outpacing inflation, lowering required monthly payments. Second, most proposed affordability policies are unlikely to generate the meaningful macro growth impulse, so investors shouldn't overreact to headline announcements. And third, the cohort divergence matters for equities. Pressure on lower income in younger consumers helps explain why parts of consumer discretionary have lagged. While higher income exposed segments have remained more resilient. So, if inflation continues to cool, especially via tariff relief, that's what would broaden the consumer recovery and potentially create better returns for some of the sectors in the equity markets that have underperformed. Ariana Salvatore: Right, and from the policy side, I would say this probably isn't the last time we'll be talking about affordability. It's politically salient. The policy responses are likely targeted and incremental, and this should continue to remain a top focus for voters heading into November. Michael Zezas: Well, Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

    The Produce Industry Podcast w/ Patrick Kelly
    Passport to Fresh: Live from Fruit Logistica and Inside the China Produce Market - Global Fresh Series

    The Produce Industry Podcast w/ Patrick Kelly

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 42:26


    This week on The Global Fresh Series, we're coming to you from Fruit Logistica in Berlin, where the global fresh produce industry gathers to shape the future of trade, innovation, and market access.In this special episode, we share insights from the show floor and introduce a guest with years of hands-on experience doing business in the China fresh produce market. As China continues to play an outsized role in global pricing, demand, and premium fruit trends, understanding how to navigate this market has never been more critical.Our conversation explores what it really takes to succeed in China—from market access and consumer expectations to branding, logistics, and relationship-driven business culture—while connecting those lessons to the broader global themes emerging at Fruit Logistica.Whether you're a grower, exporter, importer, or marketer, this episode offers timely perspective on how global trade shows like Fruit Logistica intersect with one of the world's most influential fresh produce markets.

    Sound Bhakti
    Global Youth Retreat Kirtans-2 | HG Vaisesika Dasa | South India | Dec 2025, Jan 2026

    Sound Bhakti

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 132:39


    Śrīla Jīva Gosvāmī has also cited the Cāturmāsya-māhātmya of the Skanda Purāṇa concerning the necessity of chanting Hare Kṛṣṇa in this age: tathā caivottamaṁ loke tapaḥ śrī-hari-kīrtanam kalau yuge viśeṣeṇa viṣṇu-prītyai samācaret “In this way the most perfect penance to be executed in this world is the chanting of the name of Lord Śrī Hari. Especially in the Age of Kali, one can satisfy the Supreme Lord Viṣṇu by performing saṅkīrtana.” (Purport, SB 12.3.52) To connect with His Grace Vaiśeṣika Dāsa, please visit https://www.fanthespark.com/next-steps/ask-vaisesika-dasa/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Add to your wisdom literature collection: https://iskconsv.com/book-store/ https://www.bbtacademic.com/books/ https://thefourquestionsbook.com/ ------------------------------------------------------------ Join us live on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FanTheSpark/ Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sound-bhakti/id1132423868 For the latest videos, subscribe https://www.youtube.com/@FanTheSpark For the latest in SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/fan-the-spark ------------------------------------------------------------ #kirtan #spiritualmusic #spiritualsongs #spiritualawakening #soul #spiritualexperience #spiritualpurposeoflife #spiritualgrowthlessons #secretsofspirituality #vaisesikaprabhu #vaisesikadasa #vaisesikaprabhulectures #spirituality #bhaktiyoga #krishna #spiritualpurposeoflife #krishnaspirituality #spiritualusachannel #whybhaktiisimportant #whyspiritualityisimportant #vaisesika #spiritualconnection #thepowerofspiritualstudy #selfrealization #spirituallectures #spiritualstudy #spiritualquestions #spiritualquestionsanswered #trendingspiritualtopics #fanthespark #spiritualpowerofmeditation #spiritualteachersonyoutube #spiritualhabits #spiritualclarity #bhagavadgita #srimadbhagavatam #spiritualbeings #kttvg #keepthetranscendentalvibrationgoing #spiritualpurpose------------------------------------------------------------ To connect with His Grace Vaiśeṣika Dāsa, please visit https://www.fanthespark.com/next-steps/ask-vaisesika-dasa/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025

    Sound Bhakti
    Kirtan | HG Vaisesika Dasa | Global Youth Retreat, ISKCON Rajmundry | 28 Dec 2025

    Sound Bhakti

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 5:48


    harer nāma harer nāma harer nāmaiva kevalam kalau nāsty eva nāsty eva nāsty eva gatir anyathā ‘For spiritual progress in this Age of Kali, there is no alternative, there is no alternative, there is no alternative to the holy name, the holy name, the holy name of the Lord.' https://vedabase.io/en/library/cc/adi/7/76/ ------------------------------------------------------------ To connect with His Grace Vaiśeṣika Dāsa, please visit https://www.fanthespark.com/next-steps/ask-vaisesika-dasa/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 ------------------------------------------------------------ Add to your wisdom literature collection: https://iskconsv.com/book-store/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 https://www.bbtacademic.com/books/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 https://thefourquestionsbook.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 ------------------------------------------------------------ Join us live on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FanTheSpark/ Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sound-bhakti/id1132423868 For the latest videos, subscribe https://www.youtube.com/@FanTheSpark For the latest in SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/fan-the-spark ------------------------------------------------------------ #spiritualsongs #kirtan #spiritualawakening #soul #spiritualexperience #spiritualpurposeoflife #spiritualgrowthlessons #secretsofspirituality #vaisesikaprabhu #vaisesikadasa #vaisesikaprabhulectures #spirituality #bhaktiyoga #krishna #spiritualpurposeoflife #krishnaspirituality #spiritualusachannel #whybhaktiisimportant #whyspiritualityisimportant #vaisesika #spiritualconnection #thepowerofspiritualstudy #selfrealization #spirituallectures #spiritualstudy #spiritualquestions #spiritualquestionsanswered #trendingspiritualtopics #fanthespark #spiritualpowerofmeditation #spiritualteachersonyoutube #spiritualhabits #spiritualclarity #bhagavadgita #srimadbhagavatam #spiritualbeings #kttvg #keepthetranscendentalvibrationgoing #spiritualpurpose

    Sound Bhakti
    Kirtans | HG Vaisesika Dasa | Global Youth Retreat 2025-26 | South India

    Sound Bhakti

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 33:30


    Śukadeva Gosvāmī continued: My dear King, the chanting of the holy name of the Lord is able to uproot even the reactions of the greatest sins. Therefore the chanting of the saṅkīrtana movement is the most auspicious activity in the entire universe. Please try to understand this so that others will take it seriously. (SB 6.3.31) ------------------------------------------------------------ To connect with His Grace Vaiśeṣika Dāsa, please visit https://www.fanthespark.com/next-steps/ask-vaisesika-dasa/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 ------------------------------------------------------------ Add to your wisdom literature collection: https://iskconsv.com/book-store/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 https://www.bbtacademic.com/books/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 https://thefourquestionsbook.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=video&utm_campaign=launch2025 ------------------------------------------------------------ Join us live on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/FanTheSpark/ Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sound-bhakti/id1132423868 For the latest videos, subscribe https://www.youtube.com/@FanTheSpark For the latest in SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/fan-the-spark ------------------------------------------------------------ #kirtan #spiritualmusic #spiritualawakening #soul #spiritualexperience #spiritualpurposeoflife #spiritualgrowthlessons #secretsofspirituality #vaisesikaprabhu #vaisesikadasa #vaisesikaprabhulectures #spirituality #bhaktiyoga #krishna #spiritualpurposeoflife #krishnaspirituality #spiritualusachannel #whybhaktiisimportant #whyspiritualityisimportant #vaisesika #spiritualconnection #thepowerofspiritualstudy #selfrealization #spirituallectures #spiritualstudy #spiritualquestions #spiritualquestionsanswered #trendingspiritualtopics #fanthespark #spiritualpowerofmeditation #spiritualteachersonyoutube #spiritualhabits #spiritualclarity #bhagavadgita #srimadbhagavatam #spiritualbeings #kttvg #keepthetranscendentalvibrationgoing #spiritualpurpose

    FreightCasts
    Uber Freight Hits Breakeven, EPA Probes "Limp Mode" & Military Escorts in Red Sea | The Daily

    FreightCasts

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 6:12


    In this episode, we break down how Uber Freight posted flat Q4 results but finally achieved breakeven profitability through disciplined cost measures. We also discuss the company's pivot toward autonomous trucking as a long-term strategy to drive higher asset utilization. On the asset-based side, we analyze why losses continue at Heartland Express as the carrier navigates costly fleet integrations and a soft market. Despite recording its tenth consecutive net loss, the company's improving operating margins offer a glimmer of hope for a turnaround. Regulatory news takes center stage as the EPA targets truck engine makers to investigate widespread DEF system failures causing "limp mode" incidents. This major shift aims to treat equipment reliability as a manufacturer quality issue rather than a driver compliance problem. Global instability forces the Gemini Alliance to rely on military forces to secure Red Sea voyages, even as other carriers continue to divert around Africa. Back home, the industry faces a bureaucratic paradox where 65,000 new visas are available but remain inaccessible due to a State Department freeze. Finally, we examine the broader economic fallout as weak freight demand triggers facility closures and layoffs across the logistics and manufacturing sectors. With over 3,000 jobs cut since mid-January, the industry is questioning how much leaner operations can get. Follow the FreightWaves NOW Podcast Other FreightWaves Shows Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Excess Returns
    Lowest Cash Levels Ever | Kevin Muir on Markets at Extremes

    Excess Returns

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 4, 2026 70:01


    In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, for a wide-ranging conversation on market sentiment, asset rotation, and the growing signals of stress beneath the surface of global markets. Kevin explains why extreme bullishness can be dangerous, why gold and commodities may be flashing warning signs, and how shifts in currencies, energy, and global capital flows could reshape portfolios in the years ahead. From hedging strategies to volatility, from AI-driven concentration to international diversification, this discussion focuses on how investors can think clearly in an environment where traditional relationships are breaking down.Topics covered:Why extreme bullish sentiment can be a warning sign for marketsThe meaning of “buying straw hats in the winter” and how to think about hedgingMarket breadth, small caps, and whether rotations are healthy or late cycleGold, silver, and what precious metals signal about financial stressCross-asset volatility and why correlations are changingEnergy markets, commodities, and the long-term impact of underinvestmentGlobal capital flows, foreign ownership of US assets, and currency riskThe US dollar, trade deficits, and implications for international investorsPortfolio construction lessons from bonds, commodities, and FXHow macro regime shifts can change risk management and diversificationTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and market sentiment overview03:00 Buying protection and the straw hat analogy07:00 Sentiment indicators and market confirmation12:00 Market rotations, small caps, and late-cycle risks18:00 Gold, silver, and precious metals as warning signals23:00 Bonds, currencies, and broken correlations29:00 Energy markets and commodity underinvestment37:00 Global capital flows and foreign ownership of US assets44:00 The US dollar, trade deficits, and FX volatility52:00 Macro regime shifts and portfolio construction lessons

    Verdict with Ted Cruz
    BONUS POD: Why the Netflix–Warner Bros Merger Is a Vote for American Jobs & Freedom

    Verdict with Ted Cruz

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2026 12:21 Transcription Available


    1. Entertainment as National Security American film and television are portrayed as a strategic asset that shapes global perceptions of freedom, democracy, and U.S. values. Weakening U.S. media companies allow authoritarian nations, particularly China, to fill the cultural vacuum with propaganda. 2. China as the Primary Adversary China is repeatedly the main threat due to: State control over media Global investment in influence campaigns Censorship of American films (e.g., Top Gun: Maverick being blocked over a Taiwan patch). TikTok is an example of why foreign ownership of media platforms is viewed as dangerous. 3. Merger Framed as Pro‑American Jobs The entertainment industry is supporting hundreds of thousands of middle‑class American jobs across multiple states. Netflix’s $1 billion New Jersey studio investment is used as evidence that large, stable companies create domestic employment. The argument asserts that scale = stability, and stability prevents layoffs. 4. Pro‑Consolidation Argument Unlike traditional antitrust concerns, the author claims this merger: Does not reduce competition Actually protects U.S. production from outsourcing Helps resist foreign-backed acquisitions Consolidation is defensive, not monopolistic. 5. Opposition to Foreign Capital in Media Strong concern is raised over foreign government money (Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Qatar) potentially entering U.S. media. Such investments are not neutral and are intended to influence narratives and public opinion. 6. Historical Framing Ronald Reagan is cited: Culture and storytelling were weapons in the Cold War Media independence is essential to freedom The merger is consistent with Reagan-era American leadership principles. 7. Call to Action Share the op-ed Contact lawmakers Support the merger publicly Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast and Verdict with Ted Cruz Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    The Confessionals
    833: From Occult Training to Global Supernatural Encounters

    The Confessionals

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2026 157:54


    Darren Canning joins Tony for a wide-ranging and intense conversation about deliverance, spiritual warfare, and the hidden mechanics of the supernatural world. Darren shares firsthand accounts of demonic encounters, angelic protection, witchcraft within systems of power, and how deception operates through government, religion, and culture. He recounts dramatic moments of healing, near death, and radical faith that carried him across nations with no resources except obedience to God. The discussion also explores dreams, visions, Nephilim influence, and why purity, humility, and discernment are essential for believers navigating unseen battles. This episode is raw, unscripted, and filled with stories that challenge modern Christian comfort zones while pointing back to the authority found in Christ alone.Please pray for Tony's wife, Lindsay, as she battles breast cancer. Your prayers make a difference!If you're able, consider helping the Merkel family with medical expenses by donating to Lindsay's GoFundMe: https://gofund.me/b8f76890Become a member for ad-free listening, extra shows, and exclusive access to our social media app: theconfessionalspodcast.com/joinThe Confessionals Social Network App:Apple Store: https://apple.co/3UxhPrhGoogle Play: https://bit.ly/43mk8kZThe Counter Series Available NOW:The Counter (YouTube): WATCH HEREThe Counter (Full Episode): WATCH HERETony's Recommended Reads: slingshotlibrary.comIf you want to learn about Jesus and what it means to be saved: Click HereBigfoot: The Journey To Belief: Stream HereThe Meadow Project: Stream HereMerkel Media Apparel: merkmerch.comMy New YouTube ChannelMerkel IRL: @merkelIRLMy First Sermon: Unseen BattlesSPONSORSSIMPLISAFE TODAY: simplisafe.com/confessionalsGHOSTBED: GhostBed.com/tonyCONNECT WITH USWebsite: www.theconfessionalspodcast.comEmail: contact@theconfessionalspodcast.comDarren CanningWebsite | YouTubeMAILING ADDRESS:Merkel Media257 N. Calderwood St., #301Alcoa, TN 37701SOCIAL MEDIASubscribe to our YouTube: https://bit.ly/2TlREaIReddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/theconfessionals/Discord: https://discord.gg/KDn4D2uw7hShow Instagram: theconfessionalspodcastTony's Instagram: tonymerkelofficialFacebook: www.facebook.com/TheConfessionalsPodcasTwitter: @TConfessionalsTony's Twitter: @tony_merkelProduced by: @jack_theproducerOUTRO MUSICTony Merkel - Break The Spell

    The Wright Report
    03 FEB 2026: Mineral Wars & Stock Tips: Trump Makes Big Moves // China's Sneaking Drones Into the U.S. // Global: India Deal to End War in Ukraine, Trump Considers Iran Options, Plans for Cuba, Good Medical News!

    The Wright Report

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2026 28:56


    Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, Bryan breaks down President Trump's major move in the Mineral Wars with a new multi-billion-dollar stockpile aimed at countering China's grip on critical resources, plus why a high-level global meeting this week could shake commodity markets. He then reveals how Chinese drone makers appear to be sneaking banned technology back into the United States under new brand names, raising fresh national security alarms. The episode turns global with a potentially war-altering oil deal involving India and Russia, mounting evidence that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear sites and edging toward a second U.S. strike, and intensifying pressure on Cuba as Trump signals regime change may be near. Bryan closes with encouraging medical breakthroughs from Japan and the UK that highlight the growing importance of gut and oral health in treating schizophrenia and cancer.   "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32     Keywords: February 3 2026 Wright Report, Project Vault mineral stockpile China, Mineral Wars rare earths strategy, China drone ban DJI workaround, Xtra Drones SkyRover national security risk, India stops buying Russian oil Ukraine war impact, Iran nuclear site rebuilding satellite images, Midnight Hammer II strike risk, Cuba oil blockade regime change Trump, Russian plane Havana mystery, gut microbiome schizophrenia Japan study, fecal transplant capsules cancer UK research