Podcasts about OPEC

We are very pleased to share a special Fourth of July edition of COBT. Earlier in the week, we had the opportunity to tour the Lone Star Flight Museum (LSFM) and to sit down with Jerry Scott, LSFM's Chief Operating Officer and Director of Flight Operations. The museum draws visitors from all over the world and features flying historical aircraft, many of them iconic military planes. Jerry was named COO in June 2024 and has 40 years of experience in aviation sales as well as people, project, and logistics management. He previously served as a volunteer at LSFM for 15 years and as a crew chief and plane captain for several of the museum's aircraft. For our conversation, we sat right next to a B-25, the same type of aircraft flown by Jimmy Doolittle and his squadron. This particular plane has been meticulously restored to the exact standards of the Doolittle Raiders' aircraft, making it an especially unique setting for our discussion. We were thrilled to visit with Jerry and to get to spend time with the team at the museum. Special thanks to LSFM's CEO Anna Hawley for all her help in particular. In our conversation, we explore the parallels between modern military missions and World War II operations, the extraordinary bravery of the Doolittle Raiders, the unique similarity of the Doolittle mission to the recent US strikes on Iran, and Jerry's personal journey and passion for aviation. We discuss LSFM's mission to honor veterans and preserve their stories for future generations through a living, flying museum, the pilot training progression required to fly historic aircraft, the museum's move from Galveston to Ellington Field after Hurricane Ike, and the critical role of volunteers in keeping the operations running. Jerry shares insights into the museum's reach, welcoming over 100,000 visitors annually, its rotating aircraft exhibits, and its broader community impact through educational programs and events. We reflect on Jimmy Doolittle's legacy, the spirit of innovation and sacrifice that defines American aviation history, and the museum's vision to inspire future leaders. As mentioned, the “Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo” film is available on Amazon Prime (linked here). A huge thank you to Jerry and the team at LSFM for their support in making today's episode possible. We highly recommend planning a trip to the museum to see the aircraft up close! To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted a handful of key events that influenced markets in 1H25 including President Trump's import tariffs (Day of Liberation), Trump's One Big Beautiful Budget Bill (OBBB), the Israeli-Iranian War/U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and OPEC's substantial/surprising accelerated oil output hikes. For our Canadian friends, we hope you had a fantastic Canada Day on Tuesday. For everyone celebrating the Fourth today, we hope you have a great day filled with food, family, friends, and fun. God bless you, and God Bless America. Have a wonderful Independence Day!

Iran has used its status as a leading oil and gas producer to promote dedollarization, rejecting the US dollar and trading with China, Russia, India, and other BRICS members in their national currencies. Ben Norton explains the Western economic war on Iran, and Tehran's response. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ziGNmvOh6k US pressures Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars, not Chinese yuan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmYybJZo3fo The real reasons for the US-Israeli war on Iran, explained: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwH780cEcEQ Topics 0:00 US dollar's "exorbitant privilege" 0:50 Sanctions: weaponization of US dollar 1:33 De-dollarization 3:54 Economic warfare 5:15 History of US meddling in Iran 6:41 Geopolitics of oil 7:22 Iranian leaders promote de-dollarization 8:42 BRICS trade in national currencies 10:33 Iran's oil and gas production 10:51 Gulf flirts with petroyuan 11:34 History of petrodollar system 12:31 OPEC oil embargo 13:55 Saudi King Faisal 14:30 OPEC oil embargo 14:55 Nixon-Kissinger deal with Saudis 16:50 Super Imperialism 17:39 Oil backs US seigniorage 19:31 Saudi Arabia and petrodollar 20:20 US pressure on Saudi Arabia 21:44 War on Iran 22:27 Why USA wants regime change 23:47 Outro

US equity futures are higher with S&P up 0.4%. US 10-year and 2-year yield both point down . Dollar softer versus yen, slightly firmer elsewhere. Oil down ahead of another expected OPEC and production hike. Gold firmer. Industrial metals higher. Asian equity markets are mixed. Nikkei has been outperforming to hit twelve month high. European markets are firmer. In trade developments, Canada to rescind digital services tax after Trump threatened to pull out of trade talks on Friday. Trump said he doesn't think he'll need to extend tariff 9-Jul deadline, contrasting somewhat with Treasury Secretary Bessent. Somewhat better news on US-China trade talks after both sides confirmed details on framework agreement where China relaxes rare earth exports and US removes countermeasures. Companies Mentioned: Torrent Pharmaceuticals, JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, KKR, Avadel Pharmaceuticals

US equity-index futures edged higher as trade talks gathered pace ahead of a July 9 deadline and Senate negotiations continued over President Donald Trump's $4.5 trillion tax cut package. Contracts for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%. Major currencies were slightly higher against the dollar in early Asian trading, while stock futures showed gains in Japan, a decline in Hong Kong and little change in Australia. Crude oil fell 1% as traders wound back risk premium before OPEC+ meeting. We get some market perspective from Shams Afzal, Managing Director at the Carnegie Investment Counsel.Plus - Monetary policymakers from five major economies will gather Tuesday at the European Central Bank's annual retreat in Sintra, Portugal. The summit comes as Trump-era trade turbulence and geopolitical instability weigh on global markets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB head Christine Lagarde are set to share a public stage for the first time in a year. For more on how tariffs are impacting economic outlooks, we heard from Louise Loo, Lead Economist at Oxford Economics. She speaks with the hosts of Bloomberg Television's The Asia Trade, Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Europe is trouble, with event in Iran they are now seeing they are vulnerable in regards to LNG. Inflation ticked up .2%, this is not inflation this is a fluctuation. The inflation people are feeling is from the Biden admin. OPEC is ready to increase capacity, what happens to inflation. Trump trade deals incoming. The [DS] is losing every step of the way. The SC just ruled the nationwide injunctions are not constitutional. Trump can now continue with his policies, remember the judges they will nee to be impeached. Is Trump setting the Obama with U1. Lindsey is saying that 900lbs of Uranium is missing. Lindsey is an Iron Eagle. Iran was much more than people think. Its to expose it all.   Economy https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1938402609364082979 Europe's LNG Gamble Exposed By Middle East War The Israel-Iran conflict has driven up diesel, jet fuel, and gas prices. With 20% of global LNG flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, even threats of disruption have raised EU gas prices by 20%. Europe's refusal to sign long-term LNG deals or develop local hydrocarbon resources is backfiring. Oil and the security of its supply have stolen the media spotlight in the context of the new Middle East war, and with good reason. Ever since Israel first bombed Iran, diesel prices have soared, jet fuel prices have soared, and importers have been troubled. For Europe, the situation is even worse due to natural gas. Europe has been hurt more than others by the diesel price surge because it has boosted its imports considerably over the past years. About 20% of the diesel Europe consumes comes from imports, and a lot of these imports come from the Middle East. The situation is not much different in jet fuel. Europe depends on imports and a solid chunk of these imports comes from the Middle East. What's true of these essential fuels is doubly true of natural gas—even though direct imports of gas from the Middle East constitute a modest 10% of total imports. Yet they constitute a substantial portion of global gas exports, so any suggestion of disrupted supply affects gas prices in exactly the same way it has affected oil prices—and makes a vital commodity less affordable for Europeans.  Europe needs to refill its gas storage caverns for next winter. Even if it cancels the 90% refill rate requirement, it still needs to buy a lot of gas, most of it on the spot market because of that aversion to long-term gas commitments it believes is part and parcel of the transition effort. And geopolitics has made LNG costlier—which will add billions to the refill bill. Source: zerohedge.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1938575712757133319   1. Sticky Services Inflation Core PCE (which excludes food and energy) is heavily weighted toward services, such as housing, healthcare, and financial services. Services inflation has proven persistent, especially in housing rent, insurance, and healthcare costs. 2. Labor Market Strength The job market remains tight: unemployment is low and wages are still rising. Higher wages boost consumer spending, which keeps demand elevated, especially in non-goods sectors like leisure,

Rynek nieruchomości w ogniu. Sprzedaż domów w USA spadła. Jest najniższa od siedmiu miesięcy. To jeszcze nie katastrofa i wszelkie skojarzenia z kryzysem sprzed lat osiemnastu sensu nie mają, ale kłopoty w nieruchomościach w USA – to brzmi groźnie. Obligacje zyskują, dolar traci. Czy to tylko skutek wypowiedzi Trumpa o szefie Fedu? Co z ropą? Czy decyzje OPEC mogą kurs surowca pogrążyć bardziej niż „pokój” Donalda Trumpa? Prognozy dla miedzi od Goldmana Sachsa, opinie o złocie, akcjach i obligacjach od Schrodersa. Do tego, jak zawsze, inne tematy oraz Wasze pytania i komentarze. Zapraszamy!!

Episode 475 Why did OPEC+ “unexpectedly” increase curtailed oil production in April?  Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ------------------------------------------------------

Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell gave his semi-annual report to Congress; Kevin talks about his testimony and offers his insights and opinion. The Conference Board issued their Consumer Confidence Index; Kevin digs into the details, puts the data into perspective, offers his insights and opinion. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was released yesterday; Kevin takes a look at the data and offers his insights. Kevin discusses our interest rates from the Central Bank versus other countries around the world. Oil and gas prices react to President Trump accusing Israel and Iran of violating the ceasefire, analysts seeing less risk to Middle-East crude oil supplies, President Trump easing sanctions on Iran's oil sales and increasing crude oil production from certain OPEC+ countries. 

Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell gave his semi-annual report to Congress; Kevin talks about his testimony and offers his insights and opinion. The Conference Board issued their Consumer Confidence Index; Kevin digs into the details, puts the data into perspective, offers his insights and opinion. The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was released yesterday; Kevin takes a look at the data and offers his insights. Kevin discusses our interest rates from the Central Bank versus other countries around the world. Oil and gas prices react to President Trump accusing Israel and Iran of violating the ceasefire, analysts seeing less risk to Middle-East crude oil supplies, President Trump easing sanctions on Iran's oil sales and increasing crude oil production from certain OPEC+ countries. 

This week we talk about OPEC, the Seven Sisters, and the price of oil.We also discuss fracking, Israel and Iran's ongoing conflict, and energy exports.Recommended Book: Thirteen Ways to Kill Lulabelle Rock by Maud WoolfTranscriptThe global oil market changed substantially in the early 2000s as a pair of innovations—horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing—helped the plateauing US oil and gas market boom, unlocking a bunch of shale oil and gas deposits that were previously either entirely un-utilizable, or too expensive to exploit.This same revolution changed markets elsewhere, too, including places like Western Canada, which also has large shale oil and gas deposits, but the US, and especially the southern US, and even more especially the Permian Basin in Texas, has seen simply staggering boosts to output since those twin-innovations were initially deployed on scale.This has changed all sorts of dynamics, both locally, where these technologies and approaches have been used to tap ever-more fossil fuel sources, and globally, as previous power dynamics related to such resources have been rewired.Case in point, in the second half of the 20th century, OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is a predominantly Middle Eastern oil cartel that was founded by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela in 1960, was a dominant force in geopolitics, as they collaboratively set global oil prices, and thus, were able to pull the strings connected to elections, war, and economic outcomes in nations around the world.If oil prices suddenly spiked, that could cause an incumbent leader in a country a hemisphere away to lose their next election, and if anyone threatened one of their number, they could conceivably hold back resources from that country until they cooled down.Before OPEC formed and established their position of primacy in global energy exports, the so-called Seven Sisters corporations, which consisted of a bunch of US and European companies that had basically stepped in and took control of global oil rights in the early 20th century, including oil rights across the Middle East, were the loci of power in this space, controlling about 85% of the world's petroleum reserves as of the early 1970s.That same decade, though, a slew of governments that hosted Seven Sisters facilities and reserves nationalized these assets, which in practice made all these reserves and the means of exploiting them the government's property, and in most cases they were then reestablished under new, government-controlled companies, like Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia and the National Iranian Oil Company in Iran.In 1973 and 1979, two events in the Middle East—the Yom Kippur War, during which pretty much all of Israel's neighbors launched a surprise attack against Israel, and the Iranian Revolution, when the then-leader of Iran, the Shah, who was liberalizing the country while also being incredibly corrupt, was overthrown by the current government, the militantly Islamist Islamic Republic of Iran—those two events led to significant oil export interruptions that triggered oil shortages globally, because of how dominant this cartel had become.This shortage triggered untold havoc in many nations, especially those that were growing rapidly in the post-WWII, mid-Cold War world, because growth typically requires a whole lot of energy for all the manufacturing, building, traveling around, and for basic, business and individual consumption: keeping the lights on, cooking, and so on.This led to a period of stagflation, and in fact the coining of the term, stagflation, but it also led to a period of heightened efficiency, because nations had to learn how to achieve growth and stability without using so much energy, and it led to a period of all these coming-out-of-stagflation and economic depression nations trying to figure out how to avoid having this happen again.So while OPEC and other oil-rich nations were enjoying a period of relative prosperity, due in part to those elevated energy prices—after the initial downsides of those conflicts and revolutions had calmed, anyway—other parts of the world were making new and more diversified deals, and were looking in their own backyards to try to find more reliable suppliers of energy products.Parts of the US were already major oil producers, if not at the same scale as these Middle Eastern giants in the latter portion of the 20th century, and many non-OPEC producers in the US, alongside those in Norway and Mexico, enjoyed a brief influx of revenue because of those higher oil prices, but they, like those OPEC nations, suffered a downswing when prices stabilized; and during that price collapse, OPEC's influence waned.So in the 1980s, onward, the previous paradigm of higher oil prices led to a surge in production globally, everyone trying to take advantage of those high prices to invest in more development and production assets, and that led to a glut of supply that lowered prices, causing a lot of these newly tapped wells to go under, a lot of cheating by OPEC members, and all of the more established players to make far less per barrel of oil than was previously possible.By 1986, oil prices had dropped by nearly half from their 1970s peak, and though prices spiked again in 1990 in response to Iraq's invasion of fellow OPEC-member Kuwait, that spike only last about nine months, and it was a lot less dramatic than those earlier, 70s-era spikes; though it was still enough to trigger a recession in the US and several other countries, and helped pave the way for investment in those technologies and infrastructure that would eventually lead to the US's shale-oil and gas revolution.What I'd like to talk about today is the precariousness of the global oil and gas market right now, at a moment of significantly heightened tensions, and a renewed shooting conflict, in the Middle East.—As of the day I'm recording this, the Islamic Republic of Iran is still governing Iran, and that's an important point to make as while Israel's official justification for launching a recent series of attacks against Iran's military and nuclear production infrastructure is that they don't want Iran to make a nuclear weapon, it also seems a whole lot like they might be aiming to instigate regime change, as well.Israel and Iran's conflict with each other is long-simmering, and this is arguably just the most recent and extreme salvo in a conflict dating back to at least 2024, but maybe earlier than that, too, all the way back to the late-70s or early 80s, if you string all the previous conflicts together into one deconstructed mega-conflict. If you want to know more about that, listen to last week's episode, where I got deeper into the specifics of their mutual dislike.Today, though, I'd like to focus on an issue that is foundational to pretty much every other geopolitical and economic happening, pretty much always, and that's energy. And more specifically, the availability, accessibility, and price of energy resources like oil and gas.We've reached a point, globally, where about 40% of all electricity is generated by renewables, like solar panels, wind turbines, and hydropower-generating dams.That's a big deal, and while the majority of that supply is coming from China, and while it falls short of where we need to be to avoid the worst-case consequences of human-amplified climate change, that growth is really incredible, and it's beginning to change the nature of some of our conflicts and concerns; many of the current economic issues between the US and China, these days are focused on rare earths, for instance, which are required for things like batteries and other renewables infrastructure.That said, oil and gas still enable the modern economy, and that's true almost everywhere, even today. And while the US changed the nature of the global oil and gas industries by heavily investing in both, and then rewired the global energy market by convincing many of its allies to switch to US-generated oil and gas, rather than relying on supplies from Russia, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine a few years ago, a whole lot of these resources still come from at-times quite belligerent regimes, and many of these regimes are located in the Middle East, and belong to OPEC.Iran is one such belligerent regime.As of 2025, Iran is the 9th largest producer of oil in the world, and it holds 24% of the Middle East's and about 12% of the world's proven oil reserves—that's the total volume of oil underground that could be pumped at some point. It's got the world's 3rd largest proven crude oil reserves and it exports about 2 million barrels of crude and refined oil every day. It also has the world's second-largest proven natural gas reserves.Iran isn't as reliant on oil and gas exports as some of its neighbors, but it still pulled in about $53 billion in net oil exports each year as of 2023; which is a lot less than what it could be making, as international sanctions have made it difficult for Iran to fully exploit its reserves. But that's still a huge chunk of its total income.This is important to note because Israel's recent series of attacks on Iran, in addition to taking out a lot of their military leaders, weapons manufacturing facilities, and nuclear research facilities, have also targeted Iran's oil and gas production and export capacity, including large gas plants, fuel depots, and oil refineries, some located close to Tehran in the northern part of the country, and some down on its southwestern coast, where a huge portion of Iran's gas is processed.In light of these attacks, Iran's leaders have said they may close the Strait of Hormuz, though which most of their exports pass—and the Strait of Hormuz is the only marine entryway into the Persian Gulf; nearly 20% of all globally consumed oil passes through this 90-mile-wide stretch of water before reaching international markets; it's a pretty vital waterway that Iran partially controls because its passes by its southern coast.Fuel prices already ticked up by about 9% following Israel's initial strikes into Iran this past week, and there's speculation that prices could surge still-higher, especially following US President Trump's decision to strike several Iran nuclear facilities, coming to Israel's aide, as Israel doesn't possess the ‘bunker-buster' bombs necessary to penetrate deep enough into the earth to damage or destroy many of these facilities.As of Monday this week, oil markets are relatively undisrupted, and if any export flows were to be upset, it would probably just be Iran's, and that would mostly hurt China, which is Iran's prime oil customer, as most of the rest of the world won't deal with them due to export sanctions.That said, there's a possibility that Iran will decide to respond to the US coming to Israel's aid not by striking US assets directly, which could pull the US deeper into the conflict, but instead by disrupting global oil and gas prices, which could lead to knock-on effects that would be bad for the US economy, and the US's relationships with other nations.The straightest path to doing this would be to block the Strait of Hormuz, and they could do this by positioning ships and rocket launchers to strike anything passing through it, while also heavily mining the passage itself, and they've apparently got plenty of mines ready to do just that, should they choose that path.This approach has been described by analysts as the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing, as blocking the Strait would disrupt global oil and gas markets, hurting mostly Asia, as China, India, South Korea, Japan, and other Asian destinations consume something like 80% of the oil that passes through it, but that would still likely raise energy prices globally, which can have a lot of knock-on effects, as we saw during those energy crises I mentioned in the intro.It would hurt Iran itself more than anyone, though, as almost all of their energy products pass through this passage before hitting global markets, and such a move could help outside entities, including the US, justify further involvement in the conflict, where they otherwise might choose to sit it out and let Israel settle its own scores.Such energy market disruption could potentially benefit Russia, which has an energy resource-reliant economy that suffers when oil and gas prices are low, but flourishes when they're high. The Russian government probably isn't thrilled with Israel's renewed attacks on one of its allies, but based on its lack of response to Syria's collapse—the former Syrian government also being an ally of Russia—it's possible they can't or won't do much to directly help Iran right now, but they probably wouldn't complain if they were suddenly able to charge a lot more per barrel of oil, and if customers like China and India were suddenly a lot more reliant on the resources they're producing.Of course, such a move could also enrich US energy companies, though potentially at the expense of the American citizen, and thus at the expense of the Trump administration. Higher fuel prices tend to lead to heightened inflation, and more inflation tends to keep interest rates high, which in turn slows the economy. A lot of numbers could go in the opposite direction from what the Trump administration would like to see, in other words, and that could result in a truly bad outcome for Republicans in 2026, during congressional elections that are already expected to be difficult for the incumbent party.Even beyond the likely staggering human costs of this renewed conflict in the Middle East, then, there are quite a few world-scale concerns at play here, many of which at least touch on, and some of which are nearly completely reliant on, what happens to Iran's oil and gas production assets, and to what degree they decide to use these assets, and the channels through which they pass, in a theoretical asymmetric counterstrike against those who are menacing them.Show Noteshttps://archive.is/20250616111212/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/an-overview-irans-energy-industry-infrastructure-2025-02-04/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/15/which-iranian-oil-and-gas-fields-has-israel-hit-and-why-do-they-matterhttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/17/mapping-irans-oil-and-gas-sites-and-those-attacked-by-israelhttps://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/6/13/oil-markets-are-spooked-as-iran-israel-tensions-escalatehttps://archive.is/20250620143813/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/eu-abandons-proposal-to-lower-price-cap-on-russian-oil-to-45https://apnews.com/article/russia-economy-recession-ukraine-conflict-9d105fd1ac8c28908839b01f7d300ebdhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/us-iran-oil.htmlhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg9r4q99g4ohttps://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/clean-energy-electricity-nature-and-climate-stories-this-week/https://archive.is/20250622121310/https://www.ft.com/content/67430fac-2d47-4b3b-9928-920ec640638ahttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Impact-After-US-Attacks-Iran-Facilities.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/energy-environment/iran-oil-gas-markets.htmlhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504&utm_medium=PressOpshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/stocks-us-iran-bombing.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Oilhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fracking_in_Canadahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fracking_in_the_United_Stateshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_Stateshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_in_the_United_Stateshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_Warhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolutionhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_energy_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_oil_price_shockhttps://www.strausscenter.org/energy-and-security-project/the-u-s-shale-revolution/https://archive.is/20250416153337/https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-2027-eia-projects-2025-04-15/https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030415/how-does-price-oil-affect-stock-market.asp This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

* 儘管中東出現軍事衝突，但國際油價不升反跌；並創下2022年以來最大單日跌幅，反映市場基本面已發生結構性轉變 。* 傳統地緣政治觀念（即中東一有戰事，油價必升至三位數）已經失效。此現象的核心原因在於美國頁岩油革命導致全球石油供應格局改變，以及市場參與者對衝突的解讀已不同以往。* 伊朗還擊被視為弱勢姿態：市場將伊朗向美國卡塔爾基地的導彈還擊，解讀為僅具象徵意義的姿態，並未對實質供應構成威脅，因此油價不升反跌。* 全球石油供應權轉移：* 自2023年起，非油組國的石油產量已超越油組國（OPEC）。* 美國憑藉頁岩油開採技術，已成為世界第一大產油國，產量從20年前的每日750萬桶，激增至現今的每日2100萬桶，超越歷史上任何國家。* 頁岩油技術革命：* 透過「水平鑽探」及「水力壓裂法」（Fracking），美國成功開採大量以往難以觸及的石油與天然氣資源。* 「石油見頂論」的歷史反思：* 歷史上（如1950、1970、2007年代）多次出現的「石油見頂論」（Peak Oil），事後證明並非供應真的見頂，而是預示著市場即將出現根本性轉變。* 沙特阿拉伯等中東國家早已預見此趨勢，並試圖透過發展金融、再生能源等方式分散風險。* 中東國家失去定價權：* 沙特曾在 2014 至 2016 年間，試圖透過增產壓低油價，以扼殺無利可圖的美國頁岩油生產商，但最終失敗告終。* 當油價低於每桶65美元時，美國頁岩油的利潤便非常微薄，但中東石油的開採成本依然更低。* 供應鏈的瓶頸：2020年疫情期間曾出現「負油價」，揭示了市場的瓶頸位在於原油的處理與儲藏能力，而非開採本身。* 新能源的競爭：中國的產能過剩，已令太陽能發電的成本首次低於煤炭，長遠對石油需求構成挑戰。* 地緣政治的轉向：* 由於失去了對石油市場的支配能力，中東國家反而變得更願意談判，以尋求穩定。* 近年沙特與以色列關係正常化，以及《阿伯拉罕和約》（Abraham Accords）的簽訂，都反映了此趨勢。結論與預測* 油價趨勢：從宏觀趨勢與客觀證據來看，未來油價下跌的機會大於上升。市場若出現突變，更有可能引發因供應鏈瓶頸導致的油價暴跌，而非急升。* 中東局勢：中東國家雖未必想進行重大的社會政治轉型，但因已失去石油武器的主導權，他們也並非真心希望發生大規模地緣政治衝突。* 戰爭可能性低：當前的伊以戰爭，不易演變成過去冷戰時期或兩伊戰爭的規模 19。金融市場對此普遍不感悲觀，例如 Polymarket 預測伊以在7月前達成停火協議的機會率高達89%。 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit leesimon.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by  Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque and Research Associate Vincent Wu to unpack a volatile week in oil markets following missile exchanges between Israel and Iran - exacerbated by the U.S. stepping in. With a dramatic rally in options and front-end time spreads giving way to an even sharper collapse, the team dissects what actually drove the price action—and what happens next. This week's discussion dives into:• Why options (not flat price) drove the rally: open interest, hedging panic, and call buying hysteria• The Strait of Hormuz closure fear trade; how serious is the risk of strait closure?• The Polymarket signal, GPS jamming rumours, and real-time tanker trolling• How ADNOC's tactics sparked chaos in the physical market - and put the Murban benchmark at risk• CTAs, hedge funds, and retail: who made money, and who got smoked?• Refinery margins explode again: who hedged at the top and what it means for supply• Plus: the return of OPEC to the spotlight - and why Trump's oil tweets may matter more than ever Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe Federal Reserve has been in a holding pattern, they have been waiting for event to justify why they are not lowering the rate. War is not coming and they were hoping to raise rates on higher fuel prices which would cause inflation to go up. Trump countered the [CB] and now they are running out of time. Trump has now obliterated the [DS] in Iran, the entire narrative of a nuclear bomb is now gone. Trump has showed the world what strength looks like and now he has the leverage. Iran will be calling him. The people of Iran will begin to rise up, the mullahs are panicking. No war, peace. DHS issues a warning that terrorists might attempt a cyber attack or a physical attack, the [DS] is trying to fight back. This will fail, more people are trusting Trump.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); President Trump Issues a Stern Warning as Iran Parliament's Vote to Close Strait of Hormuz Threatens to Send Oil Prices Through the Roof With the potential closure of the strait on his mind and a potential catastrophic spike in oil prices, Trump sent a powerful message to those seeking to gouge Americans at the gas pump and rake in the profits off the war. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I'm watching!” Trump wrote in all caps. “You're playing right into the hands of the enemy. Don't do it!” he added. It's anyone's guess at this point what action Trump will take should OPEC and others ignore his message, but Iran has already learned the hard way what happens when you try to call his bluff. Trump later ordered the Department of Energy to act proactively to keep oil and gas prices low, Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1937133481378619475 Strike on Iran, Trump tariffs could drive inflation back up to highest levels in two years ‘More near-term inflation may make the Fed wary of cutting rates imminently,' says James Knightley, ING's chief international economist U.S. inflation remained surprisingly muted through May, with limited impact from President Donald Trump's tariffs. But U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend could contribute to pressures that may send price gains back to the highest levels in two years. Source: marketwatch.com Trump's Iran strikes may have given the Fed another reason to keep rates high Trump wants lower rates, but he may have just given the Fed a new reason to sit tight. America's strikes on Iran sent oil prices higher, a development that could worsen inflation. Source: businessinsider.com Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates due to rising oil prices and inflation risks The Federal Reserve is now heading toward rate hikes as inflation threatens to rise again. The pressure is coming from rising oil prices, triggered by military conflict in the Middle East. Source: msn.com https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/1937167751367307731 New York To Build Gigawatt Nuclear Power Plant, Backed By Trump-Era Reforms New York is going to build the first major new US nuclear-power plant in more than 15 years, in what the Wall Street Journal described as "a big test of President Trump's promise to expedite permitt...

For those who haven't heard the announcement I posted, songs from this point on will sometimes be split among multiple episodes, so this is the second part of a two-episode look at the song “Who Knows Where The Time Goes?” by Fairport Convention, and the intertwining careers of Joe Boyd, Sandy Denny, and Richard Thompson. Click the full post to read liner notes, links to more information, and a transcript of the episode. Patreon backers also have a forty-one-minute bonus episode available, on Judy Collins’ version of this song. Tilt Araiza has assisted invaluably by editing, and will hopefully be doing so from now on. Check out Tilt's irregular podcasts at http://www.podnose.com/jaffa-cakes-for-proust and http://sitcomclub.com/ Erratum For about an hour this was uploaded with the wrong Elton John clip in place of “Saturday Sun”. This has now been fixed. Resources Because of the increasing problems with Mixcloud’s restrictions, I have decided to start sharing streaming playlists of the songs used in episodes instead of Mixcloud ones. This Tunemymusic link will let you listen to the playlist I created on your streaming platform of choice — however please note that not all the songs excerpted are currently available on streaming. The songs missing from the Tidal version are “Shanten Bells” by the Ian Campbell Folk Group, “Tom’s Gone to Hilo” by A.L. Lloyd, two by Paul McNeill and Linda Peters, three by Elton John & Linda Peters, “What Will I Do With Tomorrow” by Sandy Denny and “You Never Know” by Charlie Drake, but the other fifty-nine are there. Other songs may be missing from other services. The main books I used on Fairport Convention as a whole were Patrick Humphries' Meet On The Ledge, Clinton Heylin's What We Did Instead of Holidays, and Kevan Furbank's Fairport Convention on Track. Rob Young's Electric Eden is the most important book on the British folk-rock movement. Information on Richard Thompson comes from Patrick Humphries' Richard Thompson: Strange Affair and Thompson's own autobiography Beeswing.  Information on Sandy Denny comes from Clinton Heylin's No More Sad Refrains and Mick Houghton's I've Always Kept a Unicorn. I also used Joe Boyd's autobiography White Bicycles and Chris Blackwell's The Islander.  And this three-CD set is the best introduction to Fairport's music currently in print. Transcript Before we begin, this episode contains reference to alcohol and cocaine abuse and medical neglect leading to death. It also starts with some discussion of the fatal car accident that ended last episode. There’s also some mention of child neglect and spousal violence. If that’s likely to upset you, you might want to skip this episode or read the transcript. One of the inspirations for this podcast when I started it back in 2018 was a project by Richard Thompson, which appears (like many things in Thompson’s life) to have started out of sheer bloody-mindedness. In 1999 Playboy magazine asked various people to list their “songs of the Millennium”, and most of them, understanding the brief, chose a handful of songs from the latter half of the twentieth century. But Thompson determined that he was going to list his favourite songs *of the millennium*. He didn’t quite manage that, but he did cover seven hundred and forty years, and when Playboy chose not to publish it, he decided to turn it into a touring show, in which he covered all his favourite songs from “Sumer Is Icumen In” from 1260: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “Sumer is Icumen In”] Through numerous traditional folk songs, union songs like “Blackleg Miner”, pieces by early-modern composers, Victorian and Edwardian music hall songs, and songs by the Beatles, the Ink Spots, the Kinks, and the Who, all the way to “Oops! I Did It Again”: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “Oops! I Did it Again”] And to finish the show, and to show how all this music actually ties together, he would play what he described as a “medieval tune from Brittany”, “Marry, Ageyn Hic Hev Donne Yt”: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “Marry, Ageyn Hic Hev Donne Yt”] We have said many times in this podcast that there is no first anything, but there’s a reason that Liege and Lief, Fairport Convention’s third album of 1969, and the album other than Unhalfbricking on which their reputation largely rests, was advertised with the slogan “The first (literally) British folk rock album ever”. Folk-rock, as the term had come to be known, and as it is still usually used today, had very little to do with traditional folk music. Rather, the records of bands like The Byrds or Simon and Garfunkel were essentially taking the sounds of British beat groups of the early sixties, particularly the Searchers, and applying those sounds to material by contemporary singer-songwriters. People like Paul Simon and Bob Dylan had come up through folk clubs, and their songs were called folk music because of that, but they weren’t what folk music had meant up to that point — songs that had been collected after being handed down through the folk process, changed by each individual singer, with no single identifiable author. They were authored songs by very idiosyncratic writers. But over their last few albums, Fairport Convention had done one or two tracks per album that weren’t like that, that were instead recordings of traditional folk songs, but arranged with rock instrumentation. They were not necessarily the first band to try traditional folk music with electric instruments — around the same time that Fairport started experimenting with the idea, so did an Irish band named Sweeney’s Men, who brought in a young electric guitarist named Henry McCullough briefly. But they do seem to have been the first to have fully embraced the idea. They had done so to an extent with “A Sailor’s Life” on Unhalfbricking, but now they were going to go much further: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Matty Groves” (from about 4:30)] There had been some doubt as to whether Fairport Convention would even continue to exist — by the time Unhalfbricking, their second album of the year, was released, they had been through the terrible car accident that had killed Martin Lamble, the band’s drummer, and Jeannie Franklyn, Richard Thompson’s girlfriend. Most of the rest of the band had been seriously injured, and they had made a conscious decision not to discuss the future of the band until they were all out of hospital. Ashley Hutchings was hospitalised the longest, and Simon Nicol, Richard Thompson, and Sandy Denny, the other three surviving members of the band, flew over to LA with their producer and manager, Joe Boyd, to recuperate there and get to know the American music scene. When they came back, the group all met up in the flat belonging to Denny’s boyfriend Trevor Lucas, and decided that they were going to continue the band. They made a few decisions then — they needed a new drummer, and as well as a drummer they wanted to get in Dave Swarbrick. Swarbrick had played violin on several tracks on Unhalfbricking as a session player, and they had all been thrilled to work with him. Swarbrick was one of the most experienced musicians on the British folk circuit. He had started out in the fifties playing guitar with Beryl Marriott’s Ceilidh Band before switching to fiddle, and in 1963, long before Fairport had formed, he had already appeared on TV with the Ian Campbell Folk Group, led by Ian Campbell, the father of Ali and Robin Campbell, later of UB40: [Excerpt: The Ian Campbell Folk Group, “Shanten Bells (medley on Hullaballoo!)”] He’d sung with Ewan MacColl and A.L. Lloyd: [Excerpt: A.L. Lloyd, “Tom’s Gone to Hilo” ] And he’d formed his hugely successful duo with Martin Carthy, releasing records like “Byker Hill” which are often considered among the best British folk music of all time: [Excerpt: Martin Carthy and Dave Swarbrick, “Byker Hill”] By the time Fairport had invited him to play on Unhalfbricking, Swarbrick had already performed on twenty albums as a core band member, plus dozens more EPs, singles, and odd tracks on compilations. They had no reason to think they could actually get him to join their band. But they had three advantages. The first was that Swarbrick was sick of the traditional folk scene at the time, saying later “I didn’t like seven-eighths of the people involved in it, and it was extremely opportune to leave. I was suddenly presented with the possibilities of exploring the dramatic content of the songs to the full.” The second was that he was hugely excited to be playing with Richard Thompson, who was one of the most innovative guitarists of his generation, and Martin Carthy remembers him raving about Thompson after their initial sessions. (Carthy himself was and is no slouch on the guitar of course, and there was even talk of getting him to join the band at this point, though they decided against it — much to the relief of rhythm guitarist Simon Nicol, who is a perfectly fine player himself but didn’t want to be outclassed by *two* of the best guitarists in Britain at the same time). And the third was that Joe Boyd told him that Fairport were doing so well — they had a single just about to hit the charts with “Si Tu Dois Partir” — that he would only have to play a dozen gigs with Fairport in order to retire. As it turned out, Swarbrick would play with the group for a decade, and would never retire — I saw him on his last tour in 2015, only eight months before he died. The drummer the group picked was also a far more experienced musician than any of the rest, though in a very different genre. Dave Mattacks had no knowledge at all of the kind of music they played, having previously been a player in dance bands. When asked by Hutchings if he wanted to join the band, Mattacks’ response was “I don’t know anything about the music. I don’t understand it… I can’t tell one tune from another, they all sound the same… but if you want me to join the group, fine, because I really like it. I’m enjoying myself musically.” Mattacks brought a new level of professionalism to the band, thanks to his different background. Nicol said of him later “He was dilligent, clean, used to taking three white shirts to a gig… The application he could bring to his playing was amazing. With us, you only played well when you were feeling well.” This distinction applied to his playing as well. Nicol would later describe the difference between Mattacks’ drumming and Lamble’s by saying “Martin’s strength was as an imaginative drummer. DM came in with a strongly developed sense of rhythm, through keeping a big band of drunken saxophone players in order. A great time-keeper.” With this new line-up and a new sense of purpose, the group did as many of their contemporaries were doing and “got their heads together in the country”. Joe Boyd rented the group a mansion, Farley House, in Farley Chamberlayne, Hampshire, and they stayed there together for three months. At the start, the group seem to have thought that they were going to make another record like Unhalfbricking, with some originals, some songs by American songwriters, and a few traditional songs. Even after their stay in Farley Chamberlayne, in fact, they recorded a few of the American songs they’d rehearsed at the start of the process, Richard Farina’s “Quiet Joys of Brotherhood” and Bob Dylan and Roger McGuinn’s “Ballad of Easy Rider”: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Ballad of Easy Rider”] Indeed, the whole idea of “getting our heads together in the country” (as the cliche quickly became in the late sixties as half of the bands in Britain went through much the same kind of process as Fairport were doing — but usually for reasons more to do with drug burnout or trend following than recovering from serious life-changing trauma) seems to have been inspired by Bob Dylan and the Band getting together in Big Pink. But very quickly they decided to follow the lead of Ashley Hutchings, who had had something of a Damascene conversion to the cause of traditional English folk music. They were listening mostly to Music From Big Pink by the Band, and to the first album by Sweeney’s Men: [Excerpt: Sweeney’s Men, “The Handsome Cabin Boy”] And they decided that they were going to make something that was as English as those records were North American and Irish (though in the event there were also a few Scottish songs included on the record). Hutchings in particular was becoming something of a scholar of traditional music, regularly visiting Cecil Sharp House and having long conversations with A.L. Lloyd, discovering versions of different traditional songs he’d never encountered before. This was both amusing and bemusing Sandy Denny, who had joined a rock group in part to get away from traditional music; but she was comfortable singing the material, and knew a lot of it and could make a lot of suggestions herself. Swarbrick obviously knew the repertoire intimately, and Nicol was amenable, while Mattacks was utterly clueless about the folk tradition at this point but knew this was the music he wanted to make. Thompson knew very little about traditional music, and of all the band members except Denny he was the one who has shown the least interest in the genre in his subsequent career — but as we heard at the beginning, showing the least interest in the genre is a relative thing, and while Thompson was not hugely familiar with the genre, he *was* able to work with it, and was also more than capable of writing songs that fit in with the genre. Of the eleven songs on the album, which was titled Liege and Lief (which means, roughly, Lord and Loyalty), there were no cover versions of singer-songwriters. Eight were traditional songs, and three were originals, all written in the style of traditional songs. The album opened with “Come All Ye”, an introduction written by Denny and Hutchings (the only time the two would ever write together): [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Come All Ye”] The other two originals were songs where Thompson had written new lyrics to traditional melodies. On “Crazy Man Michael”, Swarbrick had said to Thompson that the tune to which he had set his new words was weaker than the lyrics, to which Thompson had replied that if Swarbrick felt that way he should feel free to write a new melody. He did, and it became the first of the small number of Thompson/Swarbrick collaborations: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Crazy Man Michael”] Thompson and Swarbrick would become a brief songwriting team, but as much as anything else it was down to proximity — the two respected each other as musicians, but never got on very well. In 1981 Swarbrick would say “Richard and I never got on in the early days of FC… we thought we did, but we never did. We composed some bloody good songs together, but it was purely on a basis of “you write that and I’ll write this, and we’ll put it together.” But we never sat down and had real good chats.” The third original on the album, and by far the most affecting, is another song where Thompson put lyrics to a traditional tune. In this case he thought he was putting the lyrics to the tune of “Willie O'Winsbury”, but he was basing it on a recording by Sweeney’s Men. The problem was that Sweeney’s Men had accidentally sung the lyrics of “Willie O'Winsbury'” to the tune of a totally different song, “Fause Foodrage”: [Excerpt: Sweeney’s Men, “Willie O’Winsbury”] Thompson took that melody, and set to it lyrics about loss and separation. Thompson has never been one to discuss the meanings of his lyrics in any great detail, and in the case of this one has said “I really don't know what it means. This song came out of a dream, and I pretty much wrote it as I dreamt it (it was the sixties), and didn't spend very long analyzing it. So interpret as you wish – or replace with your own lines.” But in the context of the traffic accident that had killed his tailor girlfriend and a bandmate, and injured most of his other bandmates, the lyrics about lonely travellers, the winding road, bruised and beaten sons, saying goodbye, and never cutting cloth, seem fairly self-explanatory: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Farewell, Farewell”] The rest of the album, though, was taken up by traditional tunes. There was a long medley of four different fiddle reels; a version of “Reynardine” (a song about a seductive man — or is he a fox? Or perhaps both — which had been recorded by Swarbrick and Carthy on their most recent album); a 19th century song about a deserter saved from the firing squad by Prince Albert; and a long take on “Tam Lin”, one of the most famous pieces in the Scottish folk music canon, a song that has been adapted in different ways by everyone from the experimental noise band Current 93 to the dub poet Benjamin Zephaniah to the comics writer Grant Morrison: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Tam Lin”] And “Matty Groves”, a song about a man killing his cheating wife and her lover, which actually has a surprisingly similar story to that of “1921” from another great concept album from that year, the Who’s Tommy. “Matty Groves” became an excuse for long solos and shows of instrumental virtuosity: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Matty Groves”] The album was recorded in September 1969, after their return from their break in the country and a triumphal performance at the Royal Festival Hall, headlining over fellow Witchseason artists John and Beverly Martyn and Nick Drake. It became a classic of the traditional folk genre — arguably *the* classic of the traditional folk genre. In 2007 BBC Radio 2’s Folk Music Awards gave it an award for most influential folk album of all time, and while such things are hard to measure, I doubt there’s anyone with even the most cursory knowledge of British folk and folk-rock music who would not at least consider that a reasonable claim. But once again, by the time the album came out in November, the band had changed lineups yet again. There was a fundamental split in the band – on one side were Sandy Denny and Richard Thompson, whose stance was, roughly, that Liege and Lief was a great experiment and a fun thing to do once, but really the band had two first-rate songwriters in themselves, and that they should be concentrating on their own new material, not doing these old songs, good as they were. They wanted to take the form of the traditional songs and use that form for new material — they wanted to make British folk-rock, but with the emphasis on the rock side of things. Hutchings, on the other hand, was equally sure that he wanted to make traditional music and go further down the rabbit hole of antiquity. With the zeal of the convert he had gone in a couple of years from being the leader of a band who were labelled “the British Jefferson Airplane” to becoming a serious scholar of traditional folk music. Denny was tired of touring, as well — she wanted to spend more time at home with Trevor Lucas, who was sleeping with other women when she was away and making her insecure. When the time came for the group to go on a tour of Denmark, Denny decided she couldn’t make it, and Hutchings was jubilant — he decided he was going to get A.L. Lloyd into the band in her place and become a *real* folk group. Then Denny reconsidered, and Hutchings was crushed. He realised that while he had always been the leader, he wasn’t going to be able to lead the band any further in the traditionalist direction, and quit the group — but not before he was delegated by the other band members to fire Denny. Until the publication of Richard Thompson’s autobiography in 2022, every book on the group or its members said that Denny quit the band again, which was presumably a polite fiction that the band agreed, but according to Thompson “Before we flew home, we decided to fire Sandy. I don't remember who asked her to leave – it was probably Ashley, who usually did the dirty work. She was reportedly shocked that we would take that step. She may have been fragile beneath the confident facade, but she still knew her worth.” Thompson goes on to explain that the reasons for kicking her out were that “I suppose we felt that in her mind she had already left” and that “We were probably suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, though there wasn't a name for it back then.” They had considered inviting Trevor Lucas to join the band to make Denny more comfortable, but came to the (probably correct) conclusion that while he was someone they got on well with personally, he would be another big ego in a band that already had several, and that being around Denny and Lucas’ volatile relationship would, in Thompson’s phrasing, “have not always given one a feeling of peace and stability.” Hutchings originally decided he was going to join Sweeney’s Men, but that group were falling apart, and their first rehearsal with Hutchings would also be their last as a group, with only Hutchings and guitarist and mandolin player Terry Woods left in the band. They added Woods’ wife Gay, and another couple, Tim Hart and Maddy Prior, and formed a group called Steeleye Span, a name given them by Martin Carthy. That group, like Fairport, went to “get their heads together in the country” for three months and recorded an album of electric versions of traditional songs, Hark the Village Wait, on which Mattacks and another drummer, Gerry Conway, guested as Steeleye Span didn’t at the time have their own drummer: [Excerpt: Steeleye Span, “Blackleg Miner”] Steeleye Span would go on to have a moderately successful chart career in the seventies, but by that time most of the original lineup, including Hutchings, had left — Hutchings stayed with them for a few albums, then went on to form the first of a series of bands, all called the Albion Band or variations on that name, which continue to this day. And this is something that needs to be pointed out at this point — it is impossible to follow every single individual in this narrative as they move between bands. There is enough material in the history of the British folk-rock scene that someone could do a 500 Songs-style podcast just on that, and every time someone left Fairport, or Steeleye Span, or the Albion Band, or Matthews’ Southern Comfort, or any of the other bands we have mentioned or will mention, they would go off and form another band which would then fission, and some of its members would often join one of those other bands. There was a point in the mid-1970s where the Albion Band had two original members of Fairport Convention while Fairport Convention had none. So just in order to keep the narrative anything like wieldy, I’m going to keep the narrative concentrated on the two figures from Fairport — Sandy Denny and Richard Thompson — whose work outside the group has had the most influence on the wider world of rock music more broadly, and only deal with the other members when, as they often did, their careers intersected with those two. That doesn’t mean the other members are not themselves hugely important musicians, just that their importance has been primarily to the folk side of the folk-rock genre, and so somewhat outside the scope of this podcast. While Hutchings decided to form a band that would allow him to go deeper and deeper into traditional folk music, Sandy Denny’s next venture was rather different. For a long time she had been writing far more songs than she had ever played for her bandmates, like “Nothing More”, a song that many have suggested is about Thompson: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “Nothing More”] When Joe Boyd heard that Denny was leaving Fairport Convention, he was at first elated. Fairport’s records were being distributed by A&M in the US at that point, but Island Records was in the process of opening up a new US subsidiary which would then release all future Fairport product — *but*, as far as A&M were concerned, Sandy Denny *was* Fairport Convention. They were only interested in her. Boyd, on the other hand, loved Denny’s work intensely, but from his point of view *Richard Thompson* was Fairport Convention. If he could get Denny signed directly to A&M as a solo artist before Island started its US operations, Witchseason could get a huge advance on her first solo record, while Fairport could continue making records for Island — he’d have two lucrative acts, on different labels. Boyd went over and spoke to A&M and got an agreement in principle that they would give Denny a forty-thousand-dollar advance on her first solo album — twice what they were paying for Fairport albums. The problem was that Denny didn’t want to be a solo act. She wanted to be the lead singer of a band. She gave many reasons for this — the one she gave to many journalists was that she had seen a Judy Collins show and been impressed, but noticed that Collins’ band were definitely a “backing group”, and as she put it “But that's all they were – a backing group. I suddenly thought, If you're playing together on a stage you might as well be TOGETHER.” Most other people in her life, though, say that the main reason for her wanting to be in a band was her desire to be with her boyfriend, Trevor Lucas. Partly this was due to a genuine desire to spend more time with someone with whom she was very much in love, partly it was a fear that he would cheat on her if she was away from him for long periods of time, and part of it seems to have been Lucas’ dislike of being *too* overshadowed by his talented girlfriend — he didn’t mind acknowledging that she was a major talent, but he wanted to be thought of as at least a minor one. So instead of going solo, Denny formed Fotheringay, named after the song she had written for Fairport. This new band consisted at first of Denny on vocals and occasional piano, Lucas on vocals and rhythm guitar, and Lucas’ old Eclection bandmate Gerry Conway on drums. For a lead guitarist, they asked Richard Thompson who the best guitarist in Britain was, and he told them Albert Lee. Lee in turn brought in bass player Pat Donaldson, but this lineup of the band barely survived a fortnight. Lee *was* arguably the best guitarist in Britain, certainly a reasonable candidate if you could ever have a singular best (as indeed was Thompson himself), but he was the best *country* guitarist in Britain, and his style simply didn’t fit with Fotheringay’s folk-influenced songs. He was replaced by American guitarist Jerry Donahue, who was not anything like as proficient as Lee, but who was still very good, and fit the band’s style much better. The new group rehearsed together for a few weeks, did a quick tour, and then went into the recording studio to record their debut, self-titled, album. Joe Boyd produced the album, but admitted himself that he only paid attention to those songs he considered worthwhile — the album contained one song by Lucas, “The Ballad of Ned Kelly”, and two cover versions of American singer-songwriter material with Lucas singing lead. But everyone knew that the songs that actually *mattered* were Sandy Denny’s, and Boyd was far more interested in them, particularly the songs “The Sea” and “The Pond and the Stream”: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “The Pond and the Stream”] Fotheringay almost immediately hit financial problems, though. While other Witchseason acts were used to touring on the cheap, all packed together in the back of a Transit van with inexpensive equipment, Trevor Lucas had ambitions of being a rock star and wanted to put together a touring production to match, with expensive transport and equipment, including a speaker system that got nicknamed “Stonehenge” — but at the same time, Denny was unhappy being on the road, and didn’t play many gigs. As well as the band itself, the Fotheringay album also featured backing vocals from a couple of other people, including Denny’s friend Linda Peters. Peters was another singer from the folk clubs, and a good one, though less well-known than Denny — at this point she had only released a couple of singles, and those singles seemed to have been as much as anything else released as a novelty. The first of those, a version of Dylan’s “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” had been released as by “Paul McNeill and Linda Peters”: [Excerpt: Paul McNeill and Linda Peters, “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere”] But their second single, a version of John D. Loudermilk’s “You’re Taking My Bag”, was released on the tiny Page One label, owned by Larry Page, and was released under the name “Paul and Linda”, clearly with the intent of confusing particularly gullible members of the record-buying public into thinking this was the McCartneys: [Excerpt: Paul and Linda, “You’re Taking My Bag”] Peters was though more financially successful than almost anyone else in this story, as she was making a great deal of money as a session singer. She actually did another session involving most of Fotheringay around this time. Witchseason had a number of excellent songwriters on its roster, and had had some success getting covers by people like Judy Collins, but Joe Boyd thought that they might possibly do better at getting cover versions if they were performed in less idiosyncratic arrangements. Donahue, Donaldson, and Conway went into the studio to record backing tracks, and vocals were added by Peters and another session singer, who according to some sources also provided piano. They cut songs by Mike Heron of the Incredible String Band: [Excerpt: Linda Peters, “You Get Brighter”] Ed Carter, formerly of The New Nadir but by this time firmly ensconced in the Beach Boys’ touring band where he would remain for the next quarter-century: [Excerpt: Linda Peters, “I Don’t Mind”] John and Beverly Martyn, and Nick Drake: [Excerpt: Elton John, “Saturday Sun”] There are different lineups of musicians credited for those sessions in different sources, but I tend to believe that it’s mostly Fotheringay for the simple reason that Donahue says it was him, Donaldson and Conway who talked Lucas and Denny into the mistake that destroyed Fotheringay because of these sessions. Fotheringay were in financial trouble already, spending far more money than they were bringing in, but their album made the top twenty and they were getting respect both from critics and from the public — in September, Sandy Denny was voted best British female singer by the readers of Melody Maker in their annual poll, which led to shocked headlines in the tabloids about how this “unknown” could have beaten such big names as Dusty Springfield and Cilla Black. Only a couple of weeks after that, they were due to headline at the Albert Hall. It should have been a triumph. But Donahue, Donaldson, and Conway had asked that singing pianist to be their support act. As Donahue said later “That was a terrible miscast. It was our fault. He asked if [he] could do it. Actually Pat, Gerry and I had to talk Sandy and Trevor into [it]… We'd done these demos and the way he was playing – he was a wonderful piano player – he was sensitive enough. We knew very little about his stage-show. We thought he'd be a really good opener for us.” Unfortunately, Elton John was rather *too* good. As Donahue continued “we had no idea what he had in mind, that he was going to do the most incredible rock & roll show ever. He pretty much blew us off the stage before we even got on the stage.” To make matters worse, Fotheringay’s set, which was mostly comprised of new material, was underrehearsed and sloppy, and from that point on no matter what they did people were counting the hours until the band split up. They struggled along for a while though, and started working on a second record, with Boyd again producing, though as Boyd later said “I probably shouldn't have been producing the record. My lack of respect for the group was clear, and couldn't have helped the atmosphere. We'd put out a record that had sold disappointingly, A&M was unhappy. Sandy's tracks on the first record are among the best things she ever did – the rest of it, who cares? And the artwork, Trevor's sister, was terrible. It would have been one thing if I'd been unhappy with it and it sold, and the group was working all the time, making money, but that wasn't the case … I knew what Sandy was capable of, and it was very upsetting to me.” The record would not be released for thirty-eight years: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “Wild Mountain Thyme”] Witchseason was going badly into debt. Given all the fissioning of bands that we’ve already been talking about, Boyd had been stretched thin — he produced sixteen albums in 1970, and almost all of them lost money for the company. And he was getting more and more disillusioned with the people he was producing. He loved Beverly Martyn’s work, but had little time for her abusive husband John, who was dominating her recording and life more and more and would soon become a solo artist while making her stay at home (and stealing her ideas without giving her songwriting credit). The Incredible String Band were great, but they had recently converted to Scientology, which Boyd found annoying, and while he was working with all sorts of exciting artists like Vashti Bunyan and Nico, he was finding himself less and less important to the artists he mentored. Fairport Convention were a good example of this. After Denny and Hutchings had left the group, they’d decided to carry on as an electric folk group, performing an equal mix of originals by the Swarbrick and Thompson songwriting team and arrangements of traditional songs. The group were now far enough away from the “British Jefferson Airplane” label that they decided they didn’t need a female vocalist — and more realistically, while they’d been able to replace Judy Dyble, nobody was going to replace Sandy Denny. Though it’s rather surprising when one considers Thompson’s subsequent career that nobody seems to have thought of bringing in Denny’s friend Linda Peters, who was dating Joe Boyd at the time (as Denny had been before she met Lucas) as Denny’s replacement. Instead, they decided that Swarbrick and Thompson were going to share the vocals between them. They did, though, need a bass player to replace Hutchings. Swarbrick wanted to bring in Dave Pegg, with whom he had played in the Ian Campbell Folk Group, but the other band members initially thought the idea was a bad one. At the time, while they respected Swarbrick as a musician, they didn’t think he fully understood rock and roll yet, and they thought the idea of getting in a folkie who had played double bass rather than an electric rock bassist ridiculous. But they auditioned him to mollify Swarbrick, and found that he was exactly what they needed. As Joe Boyd later said “All those bass lines were great, Ashley invented them all, but he never could play them that well. He thought of them, but he was technically not a terrific bass player. He was a very inventive, melodic, bass player, but not a very powerful one technically. But having had the part explained to him once, Pegg was playing it better than Ashley had ever played it… In some rock bands, I think, ultimately, the bands that sound great, you can generally trace it to the bass player… it was at that point they became a great band, when they had Pegg.” The new lineup of Fairport decided to move in together, and found a former pub called the Angel, into which all the band members moved, along with their partners and children (Thompson was the only one who was single at this point) and their roadies. The group lived together quite happily, and one gets the impression that this was the period when they were most comfortable with each other, even though by this point they were a disparate group with disparate tastes, in music as in everything else. Several people have said that the only music all the band members could agree they liked at this point was the first two albums by The Band. With the departure of Hutchings from the band, Swarbrick and Thompson, as the strongest personalities and soloists, became in effect the joint leaders of the group, and they became collaborators as songwriters, trying to write new songs that were inspired by traditional music. Thompson described the process as “let’s take one line of this reel and slow it down and move it up a minor third and see what that does to it; let’s take one line of this ballad and make a whole song out of it. Chopping up the tradition to find new things to do… like a collage.” Generally speaking, Swarbrick and Thompson would sit by the fire and Swarbrick would play a melody he’d been working on, the two would work on it for a while, and Thompson would then go away and write the lyrics. This is how the two came up with songs like the nine-minute “Sloth”, a highlight of the next album, Full House, and one that would remain in Fairport’s live set for much of their career: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Sloth”] “Sloth” was titled that way because Thompson and Swarbrick were working on two tunes, a slow one and a fast one, and they jokingly named them “Sloth” and “Fasth”, but the latter got renamed to “Walk Awhile”, while “Sloth” kept its working title. But by this point, Boyd and Thompson were having a lot of conflict in the studio. Boyd was never the most technical of producers — he was one of those producers whose job is to gently guide the artists in the studio and create a space for the music to flourish, rather than the Joe Meek type with an intimate technical knowledge of the studio — and as the artists he was working with gained confidence in their own work they felt they had less and less need of him. During the making of the Full House album, Thompson and Boyd, according to Boyd, clashed on everything — every time Boyd thought Thompson had done a good solo, Thompson would say to erase it and let him have another go, while every time Boyd thought Thompson could do better, Thompson would say that was the take to keep. One of their biggest clashes was over Thompson’s song “Poor Will and the Jolly Hangman”, which was originally intended for release on the album, and is included in current reissues of it: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Poor Will and the Jolly Hangman”] Thompson had written that song inspired by what he thought was the unjust treatment of Alex Bramham, the driver in Fairport’s fatal car crash, by the courts — Bramham had been given a prison sentence of a few months for dangerous driving, while the group members thought he had not been at fault. Boyd thought it was one of the best things recorded for the album, but Thompson wasn’t happy with his vocal — there was one note at the top of the melody that he couldn’t quite hit — and insisted it be kept off the record, even though that meant it would be a shorter album than normal. He did this at such a late stage that early copies of the album actually had the title printed on the sleeve, but then blacked out. He now says in his autobiography “I could have persevered, double-tracked the voice, warmed up for longer – anything. It was a good track, and the record was lacking without it. When the album was re-released, the track was restored with a more confident vocal, and it has stayed there ever since.” During the sessions for Full House the group also recorded one non-album single, Thompson and Swarbrick’s “Now Be Thankful”: [Excerpt, Fairport Convention, “Now Be Thankful”] The B-side to that was a medley of two traditional tunes plus a Swarbrick original, but was given the deliberately ridiculous title “Sir B. McKenzie’s Daughter’s Lament For The 77th Mounted Lancers Retreat From The Straits Of Loch Knombe, In The Year Of Our Lord 1727, On The Occasion Of The Announcement Of Her Marriage To The Laird Of Kinleakie”: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Sir B. McKenzie’s Daughter’s Lament For The 77th Mounted Lancers Retreat From The Straits Of Loch Knombe, In The Year Of Our Lord 1727, On The Occasion Of The Announcement Of Her Marriage To The Laird Of Kinleakie”] The B. McKenzie in the title was a reference to the comic-strip character Barry McKenzie, a stereotype drunk Australian created for Private Eye magazine by the comedian Barry Humphries (later to become better known for his Dame Edna Everage character) but the title was chosen for one reason only — to get into the Guinness Book of Records for the song with the longest title. Which they did, though they were later displaced by the industrial band Test Dept, and their song “Long Live British Democracy Which Flourishes and Is Constantly Perfected Under the Immaculate Guidance of the Great, Honourable, Generous and Correct Margaret Hilda Thatcher. She Is the Blue Sky in the Hearts of All Nations. Our People Pay Homage and Bow in Deep Respect and Gratitude to Her. The Milk of Human Kindness”. Full House got excellent reviews in the music press, with Rolling Stone saying “The music shows that England has finally gotten her own equivalent to The Band… By calling Fairport an English equivalent of the Band, I meant that they have soaked up enough of the tradition of their countryfolk that it begins to show all over, while they maintain their roots in rock.” Off the back of this, the group went on their first US tour, culminating in a series of shows at the Troubadour in LA, on the same bill as Rick Nelson, which were recorded and later released as a live album: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Sloth (live)”] The Troubadour was one of the hippest venues at the time, and over their residency there the group got seen by many celebrities, some of whom joined them on stage. The first was Linda Ronstadt, who initially demurred, saying she didn’t know any of their songs. On being told they knew all of hers, she joined in with a rendition of “Silver Threads and Golden Needles”. Thompson was later asked to join Ronstadt’s backing band, who would go on to become the Eagles, but he said later of this offer “I would have hated it. I’d have hated being on the road with four or five miserable Americans — they always seem miserable. And if you see them now, they still look miserable on stage — like they don’t want to be there and they don’t like each other.” The group were also joined on stage at the Troubadour on one memorable night by some former bandmates of Pegg’s. Before joining the Ian Campbell Folk Group, Pegg had played around the Birmingham beat scene, and had been in bands with John Bonham and Robert Plant, who turned up to the Troubadour with their Led Zeppelin bandmate Jimmy Page (reports differ on whether the fourth member of Zeppelin, John Paul Jones, also came along). They all got up on stage together and jammed on songs like “Hey Joe”, “Louie Louie”, and various old Elvis tunes. The show was recorded, and the tapes are apparently still in the possession of Joe Boyd, who has said he refuses to release them in case he is murdered by the ghost of Peter Grant. According to Thompson, that night ended in a three-way drinking contest between Pegg, Bonham, and Janis Joplin, and it’s testament to how strong the drinking culture is around Fairport and the British folk scene in general that Pegg outdrank both of them. According to Thompson, Bonham was found naked by a swimming pool two days later, having missed two gigs. For all their hard rock image, Led Zeppelin were admirers of a lot of the British folk and folk-rock scene, and a few months later Sandy Denny would become the only outside vocalist ever to appear on a Led Zeppelin record when she duetted with Plant on “The Battle of Evermore” on the group’s fourth album: [Excerpt: Led Zeppelin, “The Battle of Evermore”] Denny would never actually get paid for her appearance on one of the best-selling albums of all time. That was, incidentally, not the only session that Denny was involved in around this time — she also sang on the soundtrack to a soft porn film titled Swedish Fly Girls, whose soundtrack was produced by Manfred Mann: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “What Will I Do With Tomorrow?”] Shortly after Fairport’s trip to America, Joe Boyd decided he was giving up on Witchseason. The company was now losing money, and he was finding himself having to produce work for more and more acts as the various bands fissioned. The only ones he really cared about were Richard Thompson, who he was finding it more and more difficult to work with, Nick Drake, who wanted to do his next album with just an acoustic guitar anyway, Sandy Denny, who he felt was wasting her talents in Fotheringay, and Mike Heron of the Incredible String Band, who was more distant since his conversion to Scientology. Boyd did make some attempts to keep the company going. On a trip to Sweden, he negotiated an agreement with the manager and publisher of a Swedish band whose songs he’d found intriguing, the Hep Stars. Boyd was going to publish their songs in the UK, and in return that publisher, Stig Anderson, would get the rights to Witchseason’s catalogue in Scandinavia — a straight swap, with no money changing hands. But before Boyd could get round to signing the paperwork, he got a better offer from Mo Ostin of Warners — Ostin wanted Boyd to come over to LA and head up Warners’ new film music department. Boyd sold Witchseason to Island Records and moved to LA with his fiancee Linda Peters, spending the next few years working on music for films like Deliverance and A Clockwork Orange, as well as making his own documentary about Jimi Hendrix, and thus missed out on getting the UK publishing rights for ABBA, and all the income that would have brought him, for no money. And it was that decision that led to the breakup of Fotheringay. Just before Christmas 1970, Fotheringay were having a difficult session, recording the track “John the Gun”: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “John the Gun”] Boyd got frustrated and kicked everyone out of the session, and went for a meal and several drinks with Denny. He kept insisting that she should dump the band and just go solo, and then something happened that the two of them would always describe differently. She asked him if he would continue to produce her records if she went solo, and he said he would. According to Boyd’s recollection of the events, he meant that he would fly back from California at some point to produce her records. According to Denny, he told her that if she went solo he would stay in Britain and not take the job in LA. This miscommunication was only discovered after Denny told the rest of Fotheringay after the Christmas break that she was splitting the band. Jerry Donahue has described that as the worst moment of his life, and Denny felt very guilty about breaking up a band with some of her closest friends in — and then when Boyd went over to the US anyway she felt a profound betrayal. Two days before Fotheringay’s final concert, in January 1971, Sandy Denny signed a solo deal with Island records, but her first solo album would not end up produced by Joe Boyd. Instead, The North Star Grassman and the Ravens was co-produced by Denny, John Wood — the engineer who had worked with Boyd on pretty much everything he’d produced, and Richard Thompson, who had just quit Fairport Convention, though he continued living with them at the Angel, at least until a truck crashed into the building in February 1971, destroying its entire front wall and forcing them to relocate. The songs chosen for The North Star Grassman and the Ravens reflected the kind of choices Denny would make on her future albums, and her eclectic taste in music. There was, of course, the obligatory Dylan cover, and the traditional folk ballad “Blackwaterside”, but there was also a cover version of Brenda Lee’s “Let’s Jump the Broomstick”: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Let’s Jump the Broomstick”] Most of the album, though, was made up of originals about various people in Denny’s life, like “Next Time Around”, about her ex-boyfriend Jackson C Frank: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Next Time Around”] The album made the top forty in the UK — Denny’s only solo album to do so — and led to her once again winning the “best female singer” award in Melody Maker’s readers’ poll that year — the male singer award was won by Rod Stewart. Both Stewart and Denny appeared the next year on the London Symphony Orchestra’s all-star version of The Who’s Tommy, which had originally been intended as a vehicle for Stewart before Roger Daltrey got involved. Stewart’s role was reduced to a single song, “Pinball Wizard”, while Denny sang on “It’s a Boy”: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “It’s a Boy”] While Fotheringay had split up, all the band members play on The North Star Grassman and the Ravens. Guitarists Donahue and Lucas only play on a couple of the tracks, with Richard Thompson playing most of the guitar on the record. But Fotheringay’s rhythm section of Pat Donaldson and Gerry Conway play on almost every track. Another musician on the album, Ian Whiteman, would possibly have a profound effect on the future direction of Richard Thompson’s career and life. Whiteman was the former keyboard player for the mod band The Action, having joined them just before they became the blues-rock band Mighty Baby. But Mighty Baby had split up when all of the band except the lead singer had converted to Islam. Richard Thompson was on his own spiritual journey at this point, and became a Sufi – the same branch of Islam as Whiteman – soon after the session, though Thompson has said that his conversion was independent of Whiteman’s. The two did become very close and work together a lot in the mid-seventies though. Thompson had supposedly left Fairport because he was writing material that wasn’t suited to the band, but he spent more than a year after quitting the group working on sessions rather than doing anything with his own material, and these sessions tended to involve the same core group of musicians. One of the more unusual was a folk-rock supergroup called The Bunch, put together by Trevor Lucas. Richard Branson had recently bought a recording studio, and wanted a band to test it out before opening it up for commercial customers, so with this free studio time Lucas decided to record a set of fifties rock and roll covers. He gathered together Thompson, Denny, Whiteman, Ashley Hutchings, Dave Mattacks, Pat Donaldson, Gerry Conway, pianist Tony Cox, the horn section that would later form the core of the Average White Band, and Linda Peters, who had now split up with Joe Boyd and returned to the UK, and who had started dating Thompson. They recorded an album of covers of songs by Jerry Lee Lewis, the Everly Brothers, Johnny Otis and others: [Excerpt: The Bunch, “Willie and the Hand Jive”] The early seventies was a hugely productive time for this group of musicians, as they all continued playing on each other’s projects. One notable album was No Roses by Shirley Collins, which featured Thompson, Mattacks, Whiteman, Simon Nicol, Lal and Mike Waterson, and Ashley Hutchings, who was at that point married to Collins, as well as some more unusual musicians like the free jazz saxophonist Lol Coxhill: [Excerpt: Shirley Collins and the Albion Country Band, “Claudy Banks”] Collins was at the time the most respected female singer in British traditional music, and already had a substantial career including a series of important records made with her sister Dolly, work with guitarists like Davey Graham, and time spent in the 1950s collecting folk songs in the Southern US with her then partner Alan Lomax – according to Collins she did much of the actual work, but Lomax only mentioned her in a single sentence in his book on this work. Some of the same group of musicians went on to work on an album of traditional Morris dancing tunes, titled Morris On, credited to “Ashley Hutchings, Richard Thompson, Dave Mattacks, John Kirkpatrick and Barry Dransfield”, with Collins singing lead on two tracks: [Excerpt: Ashley Hutchings, Richard Thompson, Dave Mattacks, John Kirkpatrick and Barry Dransfield with Shirley Collins, “The Willow Tree”] Thompson thought that that album was the best of the various side projects he was involved in at the time, comparing it favourably to Rock On, which he thought was rather slight, saying later “Conceptually, Fairport, Ashley and myself and Sandy were developing a more fragile style of music that nobody else was particularly interested in, a British Folk Rock idea that had a logical development to it, although we all presented it our own way. Morris On was rather more true to what we were doing. Rock On was rather a retro step. I'm not sure it was lasting enough as a record but Sandy did sing really well on the Buddy Holly songs.” Hutchings used the musicians on No Roses and Morris On as the basis for his band the Albion Band, which continues to this day. Simon Nicol and Dave Mattacks both quit Fairport to join the Albion Band, though Mattacks soon returned. Nicol would not return to Fairport for several years, though, and for a long period in the mid-seventies Fairport Convention had no original members. Unfortunately, while Collins was involved in the Albion Band early on, she and Hutchings ended up divorcing, and the stress from the divorce led to Collins developing spasmodic dysphonia, a stress-related illness which makes it impossible for the sufferer to sing. She did eventually regain her vocal ability, but between 1978 and 2016 she was unable to perform at all, and lost decades of her career. Richard Thompson occasionally performed with the Albion Band early on, but he was getting stretched a little thin with all these sessions. Linda Peters said later of him “When I came back from America, he was working in Sandy’s band, and doing sessions by the score. Always with Pat Donaldson and Dave Mattacks. Richard would turn up with his guitar, one day he went along to do a session with one of those folkie lady singers — and there were Pat and DM. They all cracked. Richard smashed his amp and said “Right! No more sessions!” In 1972 he got round to releasing his first solo album, Henry the Human Fly, which featured guest appearances by Linda Peters and Sandy Denny among others: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “The Angels Took My Racehorse Away”] Unfortunately, while that album has later become regarded as one of the classics of its genre, at the time it was absolutely slated by the music press. The review in Melody Maker, for example, read in part “Some of Richard Thompson’s ideas sound great – which is really the saving grace of this album, because most of the music doesn’t. The tragedy is that Thompson’s “British rock music” is such an unconvincing concoction… Even the songs that do integrate rock and traditional styles of electric guitar rhythms and accordion and fiddle decoration – and also include explicit, meaningful lyrics are marred by bottle-up vocals, uninspiring guitar phrases and a general lack of conviction in performance.” Henry the Human Fly was released in the US by Warners, who had a reciprocal licensing deal with Island (and for whom Joe Boyd was working at the time, which may have had something to do with that) but according to Thompson it became the lowest-selling record that Warners ever put out (though I’ve also seen that claim made about Van Dyke Parks’ Song Cycle, another album that has later been rediscovered). Thompson was hugely depressed by this reaction, and blamed his own singing. Happily, though, by this point he and Linda had become a couple — they would marry in 1972 — and they started playing folk clubs as a duo, or sometimes in a trio with Simon Nicol. Thompson was also playing with Sandy Denny’s backing band at this point, and played on every track on her second solo album, Sandy. This album was meant to be her big commercial breakthrough, with a glamorous cover photo by David Bailey, and with a more American sound, including steel guitar by Sneaky Pete Kleinow of the Flying Burrito Brothers (whose overdubs were supervised in LA by Joe Boyd): [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Tomorrow is a Long Time”] The album was given a big marketing push by Island, and “Listen, Listen” was made single of the week on the Radio 1 Breakfast show: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Listen, Listen”] But it did even worse than the previous album, sending her into something of a depression. Linda Thompson (as the former Linda Peters now was) said of this period “After the Sandy album, it got her down that her popularity didn't suddenly increase in leaps and bounds, and that was the start of her really fretting about the way her career was going. Things only escalated after that. People like me or Martin Carthy or Norma Waterson would think, ‘What are you on about? This is folk music.'” After Sandy’s release, Denny realised she could no longer afford to tour with a band, and so went back to performing just acoustically or on piano. The only new music to be released by either of these ex-members of Fairport Convention in 1973 was, oddly, on an album by the band they were no longer members of. After Thompson had left Fairport, the group had managed to release two whole albums with the same lineup — Swarbrick, Nicol, Pegg, and Mattacks. But then Nicol and Mattacks had both quit the band to join the Albion Band with their former bandmate Ashley Hutchings, leading to a situation where the Albion Band had two original members of Fairport plus their longtime drummer while Fairport Convention itself had no original members and was down to just Swarbrick and Pegg. Needing to fulfil their contracts, they then recruited three former members of Fotheringay — Lucas on vocals and rhythm guitar, Donahue on lead guitar, and Conway on drums. Conway was only a session player at the time, and Mattacks soon returned to the band, but Lucas and Donahue became full-time members. This new lineup of Fairport Convention released two albums in 1973, widely regarded as the group’s most inconsistent records, and on the title track of the first, “Rosie”, Richard Thompson guested on guitar, with Sandy Denny and Linda Thompson on backing vocals: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Rosie”] Neither Sandy Denny nor Richard Thompson released a record themselves in 1973, but in neither case was this through the artists’ choice. The record industry was changing in the early 1970s, as we’ll see in later episodes, and was less inclined to throw good money after bad in the pursuit of art. Island Records prided itself on being a home for great artists, but it was still a business, and needed to make money. We’ll talk about the OPEC oil crisis and its effect on the music industry much more when the podcast gets to 1973, but in brief, the production of oil by the US peaked in 1970 and started to decrease, leading to them importing more and more oil from the Middle East. As a result of this, oil prices rose slowly between 1971 and 1973, then very quickly towards the end of 1973 as a result of the Arab-Israeli conflict that year. As vinyl is made of oil, suddenly producing records became much more expensive, and in this period a lot of labels decided not to release already-completed albums, until what they hoped would be a brief period of shortages passed. Both Denny and Thompson recorded albums at this point that got put to one side by Island. In the case of Thompson, it was the first album by Richard and Linda as a duo, I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight: [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight”] Today, I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight is widely regarded as one of the greatest albums of all time, and as one of the two masterpieces that bookended Richard and Linda’s career as a duo and their marriage. But when they recorded the album, full of Richard’s dark songs, it was the opposite of commercial. Even a song that’s more or less a boy-girl song, like “Has He Got a Friend for Me?” has lyrics like “He wouldn’t notice me passing by/I could be in the gutter, or dangling down from a tree” [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “Has He got a Friend For Me?”] While something like “The Calvary Cross” is oblique and haunted, and seems to cast a pall over the entire album: [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “The Calvary Cross”] The album itself had been cheap to make — it had been recorded in only a week, with Thompson bringing in musicians he knew well and had worked with a lot previously to cut the tracks as-live in only a handful of takes — but Island didn’t think it was worth releasing. The record stayed on the shelf for nearly a year after recording, until Island got a new head of A&R, Richard Williams. Williams said of the album’s release “Muff Winwood had been doing A&R, but he was more interested in production… I had a conversation with Muff as soon as I got there, and he said there are a few hangovers, some outstanding problems. And one of them was Richard Thompson. He said there’s this album we gave him the money to make — which was I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight — and nobody’s very interested in it. Henry the Human Fly had been a bit of a commercial disappointment, and although Island was altruistic and independent and known for only recording good stuff, success was important… Either a record had to do well or somebody had to believe in it a lot. And it seemed as if neither of those things were true at that point of Richard.” Williams, though, was hugely impressed when he listened to the album. He compared Richard Thompson’s guitar playing to John Coltrane’s sax, and called Thompson “the folk poet of the rainy streets”, but also said “Linda brightened it, made it more commercial. and I thought that “Bright Lights” itself seemed a really commercial song.” The rest of the management at Island got caught up in Williams’ enthusiasm, and even decided to release the title track as a single: [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight”] Neither single nor album charted — indeed it would not be until 1991 that Richard Thompson would make a record that made the top forty in the UK — but the album got enough critical respect that Richard and Linda released two albums the year after. The first of these, Hokey Pokey, is a much more upbeat record than their previous one — Richard Thompson has called it “quite a music-hall influenced record” and cited the influence of George Formby and Harry Lauder. For once, the claim of music hall influence is audible in the music. Usually when a British musician is claimed to have a music ha

Rory and Matt Reed discuss the recent escalation of tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States, focusing on the military actions taken by Israel against Iranian targets and the implications for regional stability and the oil market. They explore the motivations behind Israel's strikes, the U.S. response, and the reactions from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The conversation also delves into the potential for de-escalation, the role of OPEC in the oil market, and the influence of Russia and China in the ongoing conflict. As the situation evolves, they highlight key indicators to watch for future developments in this complex geopolitical landscape.

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫伊以冲突与全球能源市场脆弱性分析，来自航向向东。当前伊以冲突已超越单纯军事对抗，演变为对全球能源供应链的战略性威胁。尽管冲突尚未直接导致霍尔木兹海峡全面封锁或伊朗石油产能崩溃，但其潜在破坏力已引发市场恐慌性溢价。根据BCA Research报告，未来六个月全球石油供应面临超过1000万桶/日重大冲击的概率高达55%，这将使油价波动幅度达到50%-100%。与历史石油危机相比，当前局势在供应中断规模上可能不及1973年或1979年，但在市场心理层面已形成类似1970年代的恐慌情绪，且叠加了地缘政治风险溢价和供应链脆弱性。面对这一挑战，OPEC+的备用产能和美国页岩油的增产潜力难以完全弥补潜在缺口，而国际能源署战略石油储备释放的协同效应有限，这使得全球能源市场正站在”如履薄冰”的关键节点。一、伊朗石油供应与霍尔木兹海峡的战略地位伊朗作为全球第七大石油生产国，其能源地位不容忽视。截至2025年4月，伊朗原油产量约为331万桶/日，位居OPEC第三大产油国。伊朗石油出口量在2025年5月约为166万桶/日，但冲突爆发后激增至233万桶/日，显示其短期产能未受显著影响。然而，伊朗石油出口高度依赖灰色渠道，约90%流向远东，其余出口至叙利亚、委内瑞拉等国家。这种非正规贸易网络面临美国制裁的持续压力，2024年灰色船队的出口量已从120万桶/日收缩至约80万桶/日。霍尔木兹海峡的战略地位更为关键。这条位于伊朗与阿曼之间的狭窄水道是全球能源运输的咽喉要道。每天约有2090万桶原油通过该海峡，占全球石油液体消费量的21%。其中，伊朗、沙特、阿联酋、伊拉克、科威特和卡塔尔等波斯湾国家的石油出口几乎全部依赖这一通道。更值得注意的是，通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输中有83%流向亚太地区，这意味着该地区对霍尔木兹海峡的依赖度最高。冲突爆发后，霍尔木兹海峡的航运流量已出现初步变化。联合海事信息中心(JMIC)数据显示，6月15日通过该海峡的货轮数量为111艘，较6月12日的116艘略有减少，降幅约4%。尽管关键石油基础设施尚未受到重大干扰，但航运公司已开始采取规避措施。BIMCO首席安全与安保官拉森表示：“越来越多的货船正选择远离红海和波斯湾，以及具有重要战略意义的霍尔木兹海峡。”Frontline首席执行官拉斯·巴斯塔德也确认：“我们现已全面暂停签署进入波斯湾的新合约。”值得注意的是，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡的能力虽存在，但其实施意愿受到多重制约。伊朗拥有2000-3000枚水雷和射程超过300公里的反舰导弹，理论上具备封锁海峡的能力。然而，伊朗经济严重依赖石油出口，封锁海峡将导致自身石油出口停滞，造成经济崩溃。此外，1988年美伊霍尔木兹海峡之战中，伊朗海军遭受重创，几艘主力军舰被美国海军编队击沉或击伤，几乎全军覆没。这一历史教训使伊朗对封锁海峡的军事后果保持警惕。二、当前局势与历史石油危机的对比分析伊以冲突引发的能源危机风险与历史上三次重大石油危机有相似之处，但也存在显著差异。1973年石油危机由OPEC对以色列实施禁运引发，全球供应减少约750万桶/日，油价从13美元/桶飙升至54美元/桶，持续时间约1年。1979年石油危机由伊朗伊斯兰革命引发，伊朗产量从580万桶/日骤降至100万桶/日，叠加两伊战争，全球供应缺口扩大至约600万桶/日，油价从13美元/桶飙升至35美元/桶，持续约2年。1990年海湾战争由伊拉克入侵科威特引发，导致两国约400万桶/日的供应中断，油价从21美元/桶涨至46美元/桶，持续9个月。当前局势与历史危机的相似性主要体现在：冲突直接威胁能源基础设施，引发市场恐慌性溢价；关键产油国产量可能因冲突而下降；地缘政治风险溢价推高油价。例如，伊朗已威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡，这与1973年OPEC禁运和1979年伊朗革命时的威胁相似。同时，以色列对伊朗能源设施的打击可能导致伊朗石油产量下降，与历史上产油国产能崩溃的模式相似。然而，当前局势与历史危机也存在显著差异：供应中断规模与范围、市场机制变化、地缘政治参与方、经济背景差异。具体而言：当前局势最显著的差异在于供应中断规模与范围。伊朗当前出口量仅占全球4%，即使完全中断，缺口也仅为170万桶/日，远小于历史危机中的中断规模。此外，当前冲突未引发产油国集体行动，且主要集中在伊朗与以色列之间，未直接波及沙特等核心产油国。三、全球能源市场应对供应中断的能力评估面对潜在的石油供应中断，全球能源市场拥有多层次的应对机制，但其有效性受到多重制约。OPEC+的备用产能是市场的主要缓冲力量，但根据高盛2025年6月报告，当前OPEC+实际产能利用率已达89.7%，其中沙特、阿联酋等核心产油国的剩余产能仅存550万桶/日，接近历史低位。即使沙特理论上具备250万桶/日的增产空间，阿联酋宣称485万桶/日的最大生产能力，但实际增产能力受到长期减产政策和投资不足的限制。例如，沙特近年来将资源转向其他项目，停止扩充备用产能，这使其在应对突发危机时的灵活性大打折扣。美国页岩油是另一个重要的供应缓冲。截至2025年7月，美国页岩油产量预计将达到1320万桶/日，创历史新高。然而，页岩油的增产潜力受到钻井数和完井周期的制约。2025年贝克休斯活跃石油钻机数量为394台，尽管与2024年相比增加了181台，但仍处于历史较低水平。钻机数量上升通常滞后于原油价格上涨约4-6个月，这意味着即使油价飙升，页岩油企业也需要时间才能实现产量增长。此外，页岩油产量的提升更多是依靠DUC，而当前DUC库存已降至2013年以来的最低水平，这进一步限制了页岩油的增产能力。国际能源署战略石油储备是应对短期供应中断的重要工具。摩根大通分析师指出：“全球国家极不可能'协同释放战略石油储备'。”即使在2022年俄乌冲突期间，除美国外的IEA成员国也仅同意释放6000万桶石油储备，远低于美国的1.8亿桶。此外，战略石油储备的释放存在时间滞后，从宣布到实际投放市场通常需要2周以上的时间，这使得储备释放难以应对突发的供应中断。非OPEC产油国的产能释放也是市场关注的焦点。巴西深海油田、圭亚那陆上区块的新增产能持续释放，2025年非OPEC国家原油产量增速预计达2.3%。然而，这些新增产能主要集中在特定区域，且运输路线受限，无法完全替代霍尔木兹海峡的运输量。例如，巴西石油需要通过海运抵达亚洲市场，而圭亚那石油则主要面向美国市场。四、价格波动幅度预测与市场心理分析基于当前局势和历史经验，重大供应冲击将导致油价波动幅度达到50%-100%，远超当前市场预期。这一预测基于三个关键因素：潜在供应中断规模、市场恐慌溢价、以及备用产能释放的滞后性。首先，潜在供应中断规模可能远超当前实际影响。伊朗已威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡，若实施将导致每天约2000万桶的石油运输中断。虽然伊朗不太可能全面封锁海峡，但”灰色干扰”手段可能导致运输成本上升和风险溢价增加。此外，以色列已打击伊朗的炼油厂、储油设施和天然气加工厂，若冲突升级，可能进一步破坏伊朗的能源基础设施，导致产量下降。其次，市场恐慌溢价已显著上升。布伦特原油期货价格在6月13日袭击事件后单日暴涨13%，创俄乌冲突以来最高涨幅。这一涨幅远超实际供应中断的影响，主要源于市场对潜在供应风险的恐慌性预期。恐慌溢价的持续存在将使油价波动幅度扩大，即使供应中断规模有限，也可能引发50%-100%的价格波动。再者，备用产能释放的滞后性将加剧价格波动。OPEC+的备用产能和美国页岩油的增产潜力需要3-6个月才能完全释放，而供应中断可能在短期内发生，这种时间差将导致油价在短期内大幅波动。此外，战略石油储备的释放也存在时间滞后，从宣布到实际投放市场通常需要2周以上的时间，这使得储备释放难以应对突发的供应中断。与历史石油危机相比，当前市场对价格波动的承受能力有所增强，但仍有脆弱性。1973年油价上涨315%和1979年上涨169%均导致全球经济衰退，而当前全球经济对高油价的承受能力因能源结构多元化而增强。例如，美国页岩油产量的大幅增长使其对中东石油的依赖度显著下降，从2010年的60%降至2025年的30%以下。此外，远东等新兴经济体在能源消费结构上更加多元化，减少了对单一能源的依赖。然而，当前全球经济仍面临通胀压力，高油价将进一步加剧这一压力，对经济复苏构成挑战。五、供应链多元化与地缘政治风险溢价伊以冲突引发的能源危机风险凸显了全球能源供应链的脆弱性，同时也加速了供应链多元化进程。供应链多元化已成为应对地缘政治风险的主要策略，包括运输路线多元化、供应来源多元化和能源消费结构多元化。运输路线多元化方面，油轮运费因绕行好望角单日飙升24%，VLCC日均收益达5.1万美元。这种运费上涨反映了市场对霍尔木兹海峡安全风险的担忧，以及对替代运输路线的迫切需求。然而，绕行路线无法完全替代霍尔木兹海峡的运输量，因为绕行增加了运输时间和成本，且需要更多的油轮运力。例如，绕行好望角的运输时间比经霍尔木兹海峡长30%-40%，这使得替代运输路线的经济性受到挑战。供应来源多元化方面，远东等主要进口国已开始减少对伊朗石油的依赖。然而，这种多元化进程仍面临挑战，因为沙特等国的石油出口也依赖霍尔木兹海峡，且其备用产能有限。例如，沙特2025年的备用产能约为190万桶/日，远低于其2020年疫情前的250万桶/日水平。地缘政治风险溢价已成为油价的重要组成部分。高盛分析指出，当前布伦特原油期货价格中的地缘政治风险溢价约为10美元/桶，主要源于中东局势的不确定性。这一溢价已部分反映了市场对潜在供应中断的担忧，但若冲突升级，溢价可能进一步上升。例如，若伊朗采取极端措施，如关闭霍尔木兹海峡或袭击地区石油基础设施，油价可能飙升至每桶超过94美元，市场反应将极为剧烈。六、全球能源市场前景面对伊以冲突引发的能源危机风险，全球能源市场前景复杂多变，需要采取多层次的应对策略。短期来看，市场将维持”乱而不战”的紧张态势，油价波动性将显著增加。布伦特原油价格可能在75-80美元/桶区间波动，较当前水平存在6.5%-10%的上行空间。这种波动性将主要由地缘政治风险溢价驱动，而非实际供应中断。中长期来看，能源市场将经历结构性调整。一方面，OPEC+的备用产能有限且高度集中于沙特和阿联酋，这使得全球市场在面对伊朗危机时显得脆弱不堪。高盛预测，OPEC+将于2025年8月正式结束持续14个月的增产周期，届时全球原油市场供需格局可能迎来结构性调整。另一方面，美国页岩油、巴西深海油田等非OPEC产能的持续释放将为市场提供一定缓冲，但其增产潜力受到钻井数和完井周期的制约。七、结论与展望若冲突升级导致伊朗石油产能大幅下降或霍尔木兹海峡运输受阻，全球能源市场将面临严峻考验。面对这一挑战，各国需采取多层次的应对策略，包括加强战略石油储备管理、推动能源消费结构多元化、加强国际能源合作等。能源转型将是长期应对地缘政治风险的关键，但短期内仍需依赖传统石油供应。因此，维护中东地区的能源安全稳定对全球经济发展至关重要。未来六个月，伊以冲突的走向将直接影响全球能源市场。BCA Research预测的三种情景各有不同的影响路径。无论哪种情景，全球能源市场都将面临不同程度的供应中断风险，油价波动幅度可能达到50%-100%，这将对全球经济复苏构成挑战。因此，各国需保持警惕，及时调整能源政策，以应对可能的能源危机。

本週市場兩大事件重點分析：聯準會 6 月 FOMC 會議重點、經濟展望、會後記者會，以及以伊戰爭的相關影響。 本集邀請研究副總監 Ryan、研究員 Jason 一起來聊聊：聯準會 FOMC 面對種種不確定性的回答為何？以伊戰爭的關鍵與油市後續發展怎麼看？

Regime changes in oil-producing countries—whether through leadership transitions, coups, revolutions, or major political shifts—can profoundly affect the country's oil policy, production, and global oil prices, both in the short and long term. Since 1979, there have been eight notable instances of regime change in medium-to-large scale oil-producing nations. While demand conditions and OPEC's spare capacity significantly influence the overall market impact, these events typically result in prices spiking by 76% from onset to peak and averaging a 30% increase, leaving lasting effects. Speakers:   Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research   This podcast was recorded on June 20, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5009862-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Interview with Mark Selby, CEO, Canada NickelOur previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/nickel-market-shows-signs-of-strength-after-period-of-volatility-7156Recording date: 17th June, 2025Canada Nickel Company has successfully upsized its brokered private placement from C$8 million to C$11 million, pricing units at $0.85 with half-warrants exercisable at $1.20. CEO Mark Selby attributed the strong institutional investor interest to the strategic value of the company's flagship Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project, despite ongoing market volatility from shorting activity affecting the broader sector.The Crawford project represents a substantial $2.5 billion development opportunity, with financing structured to minimize dilutive equity requirements. The comprehensive funding package includes $1.5 billion in debt financing, with Export Development Canada serving as mandated lead arranger, and $600 million in government tax credits covering 60% of equity requirements. Samsung SDI holds an option to acquire 10% of the project for $100 million US, while multiple government funding mechanisms provide additional support.Beyond Crawford, Canada Nickel continues expanding across the Timmins district, with Mann West delivering over one billion tons of initial resource containing two million tons of nickel. The company plans to publish nine separate resources by year-end, targeting development of what could become the world's largest nickel sulfide district. Selby emphasized the scalability potential: "Being able to take what we build at Crawford and simply cut and paste it four or five times."The company's accelerated development timeline significantly outpaces industry standards, targeting federal permit approval within six years of the fifth drill hole and production by 2027-2028, compared to typical 17-25 year development cycles. This acceleration benefits from favorable infrastructure conditions and supportive local communities.Selby presented a contrarian outlook on Indonesian market dynamics, suggesting the dominant producer will transition from market disruptor to price supporter, acting as "OPEC of nickel" through production controls. Recent ore price strength in Southeast Asia supports this thesis, potentially catalyzing broader sector rerating as supply discipline takes effect across global nickel markets.Learn more: https://cruxinvestor.com/companies/canada-nickelSign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Discover how Israel's attacks on Iran's oil infrastructure will impact global energy prices. How will OPEC members react? What role should the U.S. play in this war? Hooshang Amirahmadi, a former presidential candidate in Iran, joins Mike for this important conversation. SHOW NOTES: 1:10: What Happens To Global Prices, If Iran's Energy Sector Is Destroyed? 5:41: If Iran's Government Falls, What Will Happen In Iran? 12:22: How Are Arab Nations Reacting To The Israel-Iran War? 15:33: How Do China And Russia Fit Into Iran's Oil Economy? 18:09: How Did Trump's Recent Negotiations With Iran Trigger This War?

In this Daily Editorial, I'm joined by Mike Larson, Editor-in-Chief at MoneyShow, to dissect what's moving the markets. With oil spiking back into its multi-year price range and gold consolidating near record highs, Mike walks us through the interplay of geopolitical risk, central bank policy, and investor sentiment.   Key discussion topics: Oil rebounds on Israel-Iran conflict: Crude jumps from $67 to $75 as tensions escalate. Mike explains why the market remains balanced, not overheated, thanks to U.S. supply strength and strategic OPEC+ maneuvering. Gold's leadership and the broadening metals rally: Gold remains strong, but silver, platinum, and copper are joining the move. Mike outlines why the rotation across metals is a sign of deeper institutional interest, not just safe-haven buying. Macro market limbo: With the S&P 500 hovering around 6,000 and little Fed action expected until fall, Mike explains why investors are still stuck in a “wait and see” mode watching for real policy movement from DC or further global catalysts. Trade deals and tariff noise: Despite headlines, Mike argues that many recent "deals" are more political theater than substance, leaving global markets largely unchanged. Plus, Mike shares how new investors, many coming from crypto and tech, are starting to show interest in metals and miners, marking a possible shift in capital allocation.   Click here to find out about the upcoming MoneyShow conferences. 

The United States and Israel are waging war on Iran, but why? What are their real goals? Ben Norton explains the imperial strategy to impose US hegemony on West Asia (aka the Middle East), destroy the Axis of Resistance, colonize Palestine, destabilize the revolutionary Iranian government, preserve the petrodollar system, prevent de-dollarization, divide BRICS, and break up the Iran-Russia-China partnership. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwH780cEcEQ How Israel's war on Iran was made in USA: https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2025/06/14/israel-war-iran-us-trump-support/ US pressures Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars, not Chinese yuan: https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2023/08/10/us-saudi-arabia-sell-oil-dollars-chinese-yuan/ Topics 0:00 US support for Israeli attacks 4:38 Goals of US-Israeli war on Iran 10:13 Israel: outpost of US empire 14:35 US imperial strategy 16:28 Geopolitics of West Asia (Middle East) 17:50 Oil and gas 21:11 Geostrategic chokepoints 24:53 Axis of Resistance 28:33 Syria: Fall of Assad government 31:44 US plan to overthrow 7 countries 33:54 Iranian Revolution 35:53 Anti-colonial movements 39:14 Dedollarization 41:49 Petrodollar and OPEC oil embargo 47:05 Super Imperialism 49:36 Petrodollar challenge 52:43 BRICS 55:55 Shanghai Cooperation Organization 58:53 Iran-Russia-China partnership 1:04:05 US divide-and-conquer strategy 1:06:03 Outro

Rob Thummel is at the NYSE site to discuss the global energy market. He says there hasn't been a real supply disruption so far in the Iran-Israel conflict, but the greatest concern remains escalation near the Strait of Hormuz. He believes Iran wants to de-escalate the conflict, which could drop oil prices to $60. Rob believes other Middle Eastern countries and OPEC members could fill any gaps from Iranian disruptions in oil production. He adds that his firm is looking forward to alternative energy sources and energy export infrastructure as well. He names Williams (WMB), Constellation Energy (CEG) and Cheniere (LNG) among names to watch.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week, our special guest is Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global and Chairman of S&P's CERAWeek conference. Daniel is the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power”. His most recent book is “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations”. Please note that the interview with Daniel Yergin was recorded on June 11th, before the Israel and Iran conflict began on June 13th, 2025. Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Daniel Yergin: Why did you describe the energy transition as troubled and in need of a pragmatic path forward? Do you believe there is a growing consensus that the “fast energy transition” scenario is unrealistic? Do you anticipate Europe softening its green policies and subsidies or extending timelines for net-zero goals? How do you foresee the trade war and competition between the G2 (the United States and China) evolving? How dominant is China in clean energy, and what implications does this hold for the United States' ability to compete? What is OPEC's motivation for reintroducing supply to the market during a period of weaker demand? What strategy would you recommend for Canada to address US trade pressures and potential annexation threats? Content referenced in this podcast:Foreign Affairs, “The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” by Daniel Yergin, Peter Orszag, and Atul Arya (April 2025) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

Brian Jacobsen says the conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran is different than prior instances, as the U.S. energy exports are much higher currently. He says the energy markets may have overreacted a little bit, as OPEC supply and production is a factor to consider. Later, Brian discusses the state of inflation and what he's looking for from the FOMC meeting this week.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Vikas Dwivedi thinks the Iran/Israel conflict will be over quickly due to low supplies on both sides and won't impact global oil supply. He calls a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz “a last resort” for Iran. He also expects OPEC+'s supply bump to hit mid-summer, potentially bringing down prices as well, but not crippling the market.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, impacting gas supplies as Chevron shuts down production at the Leviathan field due to security risks. While oil supplies remain unaffected, the market is reacting with volatility, and OPEC+ may adjust its plans in response to these developments. Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

US President Trump said at a certain point, they will send letters out for countries to take or leave and will send those letters out in a week and a half.Geopolitics is driving newsflow as Iran was judged to have violated IAEA rules. An update which has sparked increasingly escalatory rhetoric.Given the above, equities are in the red with the DXY pressured and havens leading FX while EUR/USD hits a new YTD peak and XAU climbs.Crude pressured despite the above, given the gains seen on Tuesday, Trump's tariff rhetoric, ongoing OPEC+ action and the lack of specificity on what the Iranian response will be.EGBs benefiting from the risk tone, Gilts outperform after soft GDP. USTs in-fitting but with magnitudes more contained into data.Air India flight AI171 to the UK from Ahmedabad, India crashed outside the airport after takeoff. Craft was a Boeing (BA) 787-8 Dreamliner; Boeing lower by as much as 8% in pre-market trade.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI, ECB's de Guindos & Elderson, Supply from the US, Earnings from Adobe & Carnival.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A decade ago, Indonesia produced only 6% of the world's supply of refined nickel. Now, it has a de facto monopoly on the market. How did it happen? The FT's Jakarta correspondent A. Anantha Lakshmi and FT's commodities correspondent Camilla Hodgson examine what propelled this explosive growth and how China helped it happen. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - For further reading:‘The Opec of nickel': Indonesia's control of a critical metal‘Production first, safety later': inside the world's largest nickel siteWestern miner Eramet sees no profits in nickel processing without Chinese partners- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Follow A. Anantha Lakshmi and Camilla Hodgson on X (@AnanthalakshmiA) (@CamillaHodgson). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Dr. Ken Medlock, Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics and Senior Director of the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute. Ken joined the Rice University faculty in 2004 and holds adjunct professor appointments in the Department of Economics and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, in addition to serving as director of the Master of Energy Economics program. He is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, and a sought-after voice on Capitol Hill, at OPEC, and in the media. The Baker Institute plays a key role in shaping energy policy debates in both the U.S. and globally and we were thrilled to welcome Ken to hear his latest insights on today's evolving energy landscape. In our discussion, we explore oil market dynamics and pricing, Middle East geopolitical complexity, Kuwait's production expansion plans, U.S. policy, including how recent grant eliminations impact the economics of carbon capture projects, as well as the importance of distinguishing short-term volatility from long-term energy strategy. We review the current state of carbon capture technology, with high costs remaining a significant barrier, the potential long-term opportunity to convert captured CO2 into valuable products, the potential impact of rolling back EPA emission rules on future generation mix, and how strong electricity demand growth will require all types of generation to meet future needs. Ken shares his perspective on the importance and challenges of coordination across U.S. energy agencies, the critical importance of supply chain resilience, how geopolitical risk premiums shape oil markets, and potential market impact if Iran advances its nuclear capabilities. We cover potential disruptions to energy flow through the Strait of Hormuz, the roles of the U.S. and Israel in Middle East tensions, OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production, low global inventories, and the Baker Institute's growth and expansion across ten programs. We also touch on the interconnectedness of energy and other sectors, the need to re-educate on supply chain dynamics, the intersection of energy infrastructure and disaster preparedness, evolving student interest in energy at Rice, and much more. It was a fantastic and wide-ranging conversation spanning many critical aspects of energy today. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that the S&P 500 has rallied back to within 2% of its all-time high, while the S&P 500 Volatility (VIX) is hovering near YTD lows, which is a dangerous combination. U.S. equity markets appear to be largely driven by the ups/downs of Trump's “Big Beautiful Budget Bill” and tariff negotiations. On the bond side, the U.S. 10-year bond yield (4.45%) has traded sideways so far this week, but that could shift quickly given that several key economic reports are on deck this week, which also could go a long way in determining what the FED does at their June 18th FOMC Rate Decision Meeting. From a crude oil market standpoint, WTI price has recently surged to ~$65/bbl which has caught oil traders by surprise. The front-end of the WTI curve is trading in backwardation, while the back end of the curve is in contango, mostly due to a substantial global S/D surplus that's expected beginning in Q4'25. Last week, OPEC+ agreed to raise July production by ~0.4mmbpd (total 3mo production increase of ~1.2mmbpd), but these “stated” production increases are much higher than “actual” barrels that have entered the market, which is beginning to raise questions around OPEC's “real” spare production capacity. He further noted that Canadian wildfires, Iran nuclear deal delays, and the plunge in U.S. oil rig count (~40 rigs) over the last two months have all combined to move WTI price higher. He ended by highlighting that the EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook report this week, which forecasted that U.S. cru

The National Federation of Independent Business released their monthly Small Business Optimism Index; Kevin takes a look at the data, offers his insights and puts the information into historical perspective. The U.S. Senate Finance Committee is considering "watering down" Trump's tax promises; Kevin looks at the items and adjustments, offers his opinion, insights and how you can voice your opinion. Kevin offers an update on the tariff talks between China and the U.S. Additionally, Kevin points out how China may be trying to avoid any possible tariffs. President Trump has delayed tariffs on the European Union until July 9th. Costco posted their revenue and profit numbers and their plans regarding potential tariffs; Kevin talks about the details and offers his insights. Oil and gas prices react to U.S. and China trade talks, Saudi crude exports to China set to fall slightly, anticipated U.S. crude oil inventory data from API and EIA, new sanctions on Russia and OPEC+ output increases.

Mark Rutherford, co-manager of Mawer's Canadian large cap strategy, discusses the ongoing volatility in oil, the unique role of gold, the outlook for Canadian banks, and the potential impact of recent political changes. Mark also shares how the Mawer team is leveraging AI to enhance their investment process and decision-making. Key Takeaways: • Oil Market: Global demand is rising, driven by economic growth and higher incomes, while supply is shaped by geopolitics, OPEC, and technology. • Canadian Banks: Loan growth is slow and provisions are higher amid uncertainty, but banks remain well-capitalized and stable. • Political Change: New pro-growth policies in Canada could boost productivity and create investment opportunities, especially in infrastructure and financials.  • Gold's role: Gold remains a store of value; Mawer prefers low-cost producers and streaming/royalty models. • AI Integration: AI is streamlining research, improving efficiency, and generating new investment ideas using proprietary data and tools.    This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts. Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.  Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social: LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/

This latest episode of Freight Up tracks the markets with a strong focus on capesize bulk carriers and the shifting opportunities in iron ore spreads.I'm Jess, and alongside Davide, I'll be steering you through what's been a dynamic couple of weeks across freight and commodity markets. This week, we dig into why the capesize segment has outperformed, the forces shaping paper and physical market moves, and how macroeconomic shifts in China and the West are starting to make their mark. We also welcome Ben Klang for a guided walk through the supply side changes impacting vessel values and orders, and bring in Hao Pei from Shanghai for a deep dive on iron ore and coking coal. To tie it all together, Archie Smith closes with an update on what's shaping fuel oil and crude benchmarks, and why it's been a sideways stretch for paper spreads.If you listen in, you'll get a clear overview of how China's latest manufacturing PMI numbers and consumer price dips are casting a shadow, putting a tighter squeeze on iron ore and freight rates. We cover the upturn in capes, with spot indices making their highest push yet this year, gains on FFAs, and a turnaround in Panamaxes driven by robust South American grain flows. Ben helps make sense of the slowdown in secondhand vessel sales, explaining why average vessel ages are climbing and why scrapping is nearly at a standstill, even as demand feels subdued. We break down the logic: owners are holding onto older tonnage, newbuild orders have fallen to historic lows, and low earnings are nudging many to wait for clearer regulatory and market signals before acting. This creates a backdrop of supply that's hard to clear, explaining the persistent pressure on rates.From the commodities desk, Hao Pei explains what's behind the compression in the MB65-P62 iron ore spread, pointing to an unusually loose supply of premium ore, increased concentrate shipments, and why investors see more upside than risk at these levels. The episode also unpacks a sharp rebound in coking coal, as policy rumours and production cuts meet sustained low demand—a situation that looks precarious but sets the stage for future price action. Finally, Archie brings the fuel oil discussion up to date: crude oil's recent climb is reviewed alongside OPEC's output strategies and why Singapore's high-sulphur fuel oil spreads have cooled. There's especial attention on arbitrage opportunities and the persistent strength of European very low sulfur fuels compared to their Asian counterparts.By the time you've finished listening, you'll be able to identify the major factors currently moving the key freight indices for capes and panamaxes, understand how vessel age and supply trends are affecting rates, and spot where different market players are seeing opportunity or sitting back. You'll come away with a clearer sense of the iron ore and coal market mechanics, and you'll have better insight into the drivers behind recent fuel oil and crude benchmark performances. Whether you're looking to inform a trade, better time a market entry, or just get a precise read on what's shaping dry bulk and commodity shipping, this episode will give you the ground-level detail and wider context you need.

Erfahre hier mehr über unseren Partner Scalable Capital - dem Broker mit Flatrate und Zinsen. Alle weiteren Infos gibt's hier: scalable.capital/oaws. Aktien + Whatsapp = Hier anmelden. Lieber als Newsletter? Geht auch. Das Buch zum Podcast? Jetzt lesen. Meta kauft 49% von Scale AI. Investoren verkaufen: Rüstung wegen nix, T-Mobile wegen Führungswechsel, BYD wegen Split. Investoren kaufen: Novo Nordisk wegen Führungswechsel, Insmed wegen Studiendaten, Alphabet wegen Cloud. Sonst: J.M. Smucker & Rolls-Royce. OPEC macht mehr. Ölkonzerne machen effizienter (trotz Schweinezyklus). USA dominiert. Europa hat's schwer. Außerdem: Aktivisten bei BP (WKN: 850517) & Phillips 66 (WKN: A1JWQU). Deals bei Chevron (WKN: 852552), ExxonMobil (WKN: 852549) & ConocoPhillips (WKN: 575302). Buffett bei Occidental (WKN: 851921). Diesen Podcast vom 11.06.2025, 3:00 Uhr stellt dir die Podstars GmbH (Noah Leidinger) zur Verfügung.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the May Nonfarm Payroll report; Kevin looks into the data, offers his insights and puts the report in perspective. Additionally, the Unemployment Rate and Wage Growth reports were released; Kevin has the details and offers his insights. The Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance will now be enforcing a law suspended for nearly a decade due to an Obama-era executive order; Kevin explains and discusses the details. Oil and gas prices react to U.S. and China trade talks in London, a weaker U.S. dollar and possible increased oil production from the OPEC+ countries.

Oil prices have surged to their highest levels since April, but Carley Garner believes the rally is short-lived. She thinks the recent price jump was largely driven by a "perfect storm" of bullish headlines. Simon Lack disagrees, arguing that OPEC+ wants to maintain prices above $75 and that production cutbacks in the U.S. could lead to a supply shortage. He also likes energy names like Cheniere Energy (LNG), NextEra (NEE), and OEG Energy Corp., citing their strong cash flow visibility and growth potential.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Gold is holding steady, but silver is shining with a 13-year high on strong industrial demand and supply deficits. Scott Bauer sees the gold-to-silver ratio narrowing, making silver a buy. In oil, a bearish forecast from S&P Global Commodity Insights predicts prices could fall below $50 a barrel due to OPEC supply, but Bauer isn't ruling it out. Bitcoin, however, is defying gravity, nearing its record high on bullish forecasts and institutional buying.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Brent crude oil prices have strengthened at the end of last week, despite discussions of potential production hikes from OPEC+. Factors such as limited cuts to Saudi selling prices and ongoing overproduction by several members are supporting prices, while the market remains in its current range, with the possibility of reaching $70/b if it breaks out. Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

ADP Research released the Private-Sector Payroll report; Kevin digs into the data, explains the information and offers his insights. The Institute for Supply Management released the Services ISM Report on Business; Kevin sorts through the data, clarifies the information and puts it into perspective. S&P Global issued their Services Purchasing Managers Index; Kevin has the details. Oil and gas prices react to larger-than-expected U. S. inventories of gasoline and diesel, unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, OPEC+ crude oil supply increases, "persistent tariff tensions" and Canadian wildfires.

Carly Garner expects crude oil (/CL) to continue its downward trend due to a strong U.S. dollar and OPEC's recent decision to increase production. She believes that while geopolitical tensions could cause short-term rallies, the overall trend remains bearish. In the equity market, Garner sees the S&P 500's (SPX) 6000 level as a point of contention, but is cautious about the upside potential and prefers to be bearish from higher levels, citing the potential for a larger correction.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Carly Garner expects crude oil (/CL) to continue its downward trend due to a strong U.S. dollar and OPEC's recent decision to increase production. She believes that while geopolitical tensions could cause short-term rallies, the overall trend remains bearish. In the equity market, Garner sees the S&P 500's (SPX) 6000 level as a point of contention, but is cautious about the upside potential and prefers to be bearish from higher levels, citing the potential for a larger correction.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Today we're delighted to welcome back Mike Sommers, President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API). Mike has led the API since 2018 and previously spent two decades in senior leadership roles in the U.S. House of Representatives and the White House, including as Chief of Staff to Speaker of the House John A. Boehner and as Special Assistant to President George W. Bush on the National Economic Council. The API represents 600 members across the full spectrum of the U.S. petroleum industry, with roots dating back to World War I, when Congress and the domestic oil and gas sector joined forces to support the war effort. We first hosted Mike on COBT in September 2021 (episode linked here), and with all the changes in energy and Washington since then, we had plenty to catch up on. We were thrilled to visit with Mike to hear his latest insights. As you will hear, there is almost no energy topic Mike can't help us think through. In our discussion, we explore evolving attitudes in Washington toward natural gas, from being viewed as a waste product to a “bridge fuel” during the Obama era, and now as a “forever fuel” due to its growing importance in meeting rising energy demand. We examine the increased engagement between tech companies and the energy industry, the urgent need for a more durable, streamlined, and predictable permitting system to support the expansion of energy infrastructure, referencing the Supreme Court's recent decision that narrows NEPA's scope and increases deference to agency decisions, potentially reducing project delays. We discuss the ongoing debate and uncertainty regarding the IRA, which incentives may survive in reconciliation, and the potential impact of legislative changes on clean energy investment. Mike shares his perspective on the recent House Bill, which removed renewable tax credits, and the expectation of reconciliation in the Senate. We cover the new National Energy Dominance Council and its role in coordinating energy policy across federal agencies, the evolving balance between federal and state authority in energy regulation, and advocacy for consumer choice in vehicle technology, specifically the recent repeal of the California EV mandate. We explore Alaska's resource potential, including the opportunity to build an LNG terminal to utilize natural gas currently being reinjected, and the broader significance for U.S. energy security and exports to Asia, the strategic importance of domestic oil and gas, the role of judicial review in permitting, and much more. It was a fantastic conversation and we greatly appreciate Mike for joining. Mike Bradley kicked off the discussion by noting that while remnants of “Trumpatility” have mostly faded, with S&P 500 volatility now low, broader markets remain sensitive to Trump's policies, as highlighted this week by the doubling of aluminum and steel import tariffs. He pointed out that oil prices have surprised traders to the upside so far this week, rising more than $2/bbl despite OPEC+ signaling a July production increase of >400kbpd. Mike also discussed EOG Resource's $5.6 billion deal to acquire Encino Acquisition Partners' Utica asset, noting that the deal adds another large core oil asset play for EOG and could also prove to serve as a backdoor natural gas play, especially if the Northeast finally opens up for energy infrastructure spending. Jeff Tillery added to Mike's comments, noting that despite the day-to-day volatility in oil markets, the long-term outlook still comes down to tight supply and the need for real demand growth. On the gas side, he pointed to strong demand pull but emphasized that the key question is where prices will ultimately settle given the ample supply. Thanks to you all. We hope you enjoy today's discussion as much as we did!

The oil market is once again bracing for change, with OPEC signaling their interest in unlocking supply that has been withheld. For producers, this looming oversupply translates into a fresh imperative: cut costs. The oil and gas sector, long accustomed to volatility, must now sharpen its cost control strategies in the face of intensifying pressure on margins.  Matthew Hatami, a professional engineer, entrepreneur, and author, joins me on this episode to discuss the tools and tactics operators can use to improve free cash flow. With experience spanning Halliburton, Hess, Chesapeake, and private equity ventures, Matthew shares how data and digital technologies can identify, prevent, and mitigate costly inefficiencies—without big budgets or sweeping tech overhauls. Drawing from his new book, Shale Oil and Gas Operations: Maximize Cashflow with Cost Reduction, Matthew shares three practical, high-impact digital strategies: build operational algorithms to flag issues before they arise, embed probability-based decision-making into drilling management, and implement daily visual reporting using nothing more than a smartphone. Each tactic is aimed at boosting productivity, engaging teams, and staying competitive in an increasingly lean industry.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.0:00 Rain on the Radar2:58 Monday Selloff4:38 Crop Progress & Conditions11:11 Weaker US Dollar?13:02 Crude Rally14:21 Grain Shipments

Another day of tariff headlines: President Trump vowing to double duties on steel and aluminum imports starting as soon as this week… Sara Eisen and Carl Quintanilla broke down the latest out of Washington – including news crossing that Trump is likely to speak with China's President Xi about trade this week. Evercore's Julian Emanuel warning: brace for volatility either way, breaking down what all the headlines mean for broader markets. Plus: gas prices popping higher on new OPEC+ headlines – Paul Sankey joined the team at Post 9 with his predictions on the road ahead.  Also in focus: a number of reads from the frontline – be it pharma or hospitality – as the CEO of Bristol Myers Squibb joins the broadcast from the world's largest cancer conference (ASCO) to talk their new drug partnership with BioNTech… while the CEO of Hilton discussed what he's seeing when it comes to international demand - and whether trade tensions are a real headwind here.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

LIVE today at 2pm PT, join me on Trader Merlin for an action-packed episode as we tackle one of the most common questions traders ask: “What's the best technical indicator to use?” I'll share my take on what I consider a true “killer indicator”—and how you can apply it effectively to your own trading strategy. Whether you're new to trading or a seasoned pro, this is one you won't want to miss! We'll also break down today's major market moves, take a look at the latest OPEC production statements and what they mean for oil prices and energy stocks, and discuss the market's reaction to Jerome Powell's latest speech—are we headed for more rate volatility, or a steadier course from the Fed? Topics on deck:

Market start the week and month paring morning losses and grinding higher throughout the sessios, with plenty of macro catalysts ahead. Our Megan Cassella reports on escalating trade tensions as China strikes back. We take a look at the trajectory with Dan Skelly, Managing Director at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, who expects rangebound action for the rest of 2025. Oil spikes more after an OPEC outlook hike was less-than-feared and energy investor Arjun Murti weighs in. Our Eunice Yoon reports from Beijing on how Chinese restaurants are dropping American menu items—like U.S. chicken feet—as tensions rise. Our Brian Sullivan reports on progress with the Alaska LNG pipeline from the Arctic Circle. Michael Lasser, Retail Analyst at UBS, joins Jon to break down dollar-store earnings later this week. 

President Trump's recent visit to the Gulf region marked a dramatic shift from the previous administration's Middle East diplomacy. In his visit to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, Trump focused on securing significant investment commitments and commercial partnerships to support the region's AI and other ambitions.  The trip showcased Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy—one focused on bilateral deals rather than regional frameworks, and economic partnerships over military interventions. It also raised important questions about oil markets, geopolitical competition with China, nuclear agreements, and the future of energy prices. So what are the likely impacts of massive investment pledges from Gulf nations? Do low oil prices limit the ability to make good on them? What is the outlook for oil prices with uncertainty over OPEC+ policy, a possible Iran deal, and possible new sanctions on Russia? And what does Trump's transactional diplomacy mean for traditional alliances and regional stability?  This week, Jason Bordoff speaks with Helima Croft, Joe McMonigle, and Karen Young about how the Trump administration is reshaping U.S. relations with Middle East countries and the long- and short-term implications it will have on energy markets and geopolitics. Helima is managing director and global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, where she leads the coverage of energy markets and geopolitical risk. Joe is a distinguished visiting fellow here at the Center on Global Energy Policy and the founder and president of the Global Center for Energy Analysis, an independent research and analysis firm. Karen is a senior research scholar here at the Center on Global Energy Policy and a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute where she focuses on the political economy of the Gulf States and energy policy. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is executive producer.  

Crude Oil tanks as OPEC+ floods the market with product. Russia and Saudi Arabia just did the unthinkable by announcing that they’re increasing output by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June. With demand forecasts going down every day as the world braces for a Trump induced global recession, it’s the exact opposite move from what everyone expected. This episode tackles what this means for the economy, the future of energy, Trump’s tariff gambit, inflation and unemployment. Access the episode resources. Resources OPEC OilPrice.com U.S. EIA: Advances in technology led to record new well productivity in the Permian Basin in 2021 EnergyNews: OPEC maintains its forecast for oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 Reuters: US agrees to sell Saudi Arabia $142 billion arms package Responsible Statecraft: Lobby Horse: Trump’s ‘trillion dollar' visit to Saudi Arabia Deloitte: 2025 Renewable Energy Industry Outlook World Economic Forum: 5 trends shaping the energy world in 2025 AInvest: JPMorgan Cuts 2025 Oil Price Forecasts 12% on Weak Demand, OPEC+ Output ExxonMobil: ExxonMobil Announces First-Quarter 2025 Results Reuters: OPEC output hikes, trade wars have US oil producers wary of 'drill baby drill' Trading Economics: United States Exports By Category St. Louis Fed: Breakeven Fiscal Oil Price for Saudi Arabia (SAUPZPIOILBEGUSD) UNFTR Episode Resources Peak Oil: It's a Crude, Crude World. Bitcoin & Crude Oil. The Energy Independence Myth. Iceberg. Dead Ahead. Video: Oil Prices TANK as OPEC Floods the Market -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.