Podcasts about OPEC

Guy Adami and Peter Boockvar discuss the impact of tariffs on earnings and market performance, stressing the need to remain unbiased about their benefits or drawbacks. The discussion shifts to declining rig counts and their potential influence on crude oil prices, highlighting U.S. shale production's response to OPEC's quota adjustments. The panel addresses the geopolitical ramifications of U.S. threats to tariff countries buying Russian oil, particularly China and India, noting how these actions could lead to oil price volatility. The dialogue also explores China's leverage over the U.S. due to their control of rare earth magnets, which are critical for both commercial and military applications. The episode concludes with an overview of the current market sentiment, driven by AI tech trades and a buy-the-dip mentality, contrasting it with the fragmented performance of smaller market segments. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

The 5 things you need to know before the stock market opens today: Tesla's board has approved a 96 million share compensation for Elon Musk, President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney may meet over the next few days, OPEC+ will raise oil production next month, The Athletic is reporting that ESPN will acquire NFL Red Zone, and Marvel's “Fantastic Four” saw a 66% drop in box office sales since its debut weekend.  Squawk Box is hosted by Joe Kernen, Becky Quick and Andrew Ross Sorkin.  Follow Squawk Pod for the best moments, interviews and analysis from our TV show in an audio-first format. 

Send us a textIn this special edition of the WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Flashcast, host Tim Gerdeman sits down with Chris Degner, Managing Director in Water Tower Research's Energy Practice, to explore major shifts in the oil and natural gas markets. The discussion covers rising OPEC production, evolving global supply structures, and a deep dive into LNG market trends—including emerging export projects in the U.S. and Australia. The episode also spotlights Tamboran Resources, a small-cap company with high-potential natural gas assets in Australia. Tune in for expert insights on where the energy markets are headed and what it means for small-cap investors. 

Why fight with tanks when you can cripple enemies with trade? Here, Chokepoints author Edward Fishman reveals the new rules of economic warfare.Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/1189What We Discuss with Edward Fishman:Invisible choke points give US asymmetric power. The dollar dominates 90% of global foreign exchange, enabling sanctions on countries with no US involvement, like blocking China-Iran oil payments.Economic warfare threshold lowered, impact increased. Unlike naval blockades requiring military force, cutting countries from dollars/semiconductors imposes "just as much economic harm" with less risk.China built counter-arsenal after 2018. China now controls 99% of rare earth minerals, batteries, and clean tech supply chains, and recently forced the US to back down using export controls as leverage.US-Europe split weakens economic leverage. Acting unilaterally pushes allies toward Euro alternatives, reducing dollar dominance that enables effective sanctions against adversaries.Economic warfare offers hope over military conflict. Understanding these dynamics enables democratic participation in choosing economic tools over shooting wars.And much more...And if you're still game to support us, please leave a review here — even one sentence helps! Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course!Subscribe to our once-a-week Wee Bit Wiser newsletter today and start filling your Wednesdays with wisdom!Do you even Reddit, bro? Join us at r/JordanHarbinger!This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: BetterHelp: 10% off first month: betterhelp.com/jordanConstant Contact: Go to constantcontact.com for more infoMint Mobile: Shop plans at mintmobile.com/jhsLand Rover Defender: landroverusa.comHomes.com: Find your home: homes.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

These are the stories and topics Kevin covered this morning: Trump strikes a trade deal with the EU; Chevron will soon be able to restart oil production in Venezuela; Chevron gets approval from the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris for a major acquisition; Chevron announces layoffs in the Houston area; on Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department released June Durable Goods Orders; Industry experts discuss Transport Merger and Acquisition during the first half of 2025; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historic perspective, offers his insights and an opinion or two. Kevn talks about the Federal Reserve meeting this week, mentioning that much of the data, upon which the Fed claims they make their decision, is being released before they have had a chance to analyze it. Oil reacts to the U.S. and EU trade agreement, President Trump shortening the deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, OPEC+ stresses the need for full compliance with output limits from their members and continuing trade discussions between the U.S. and China.

These are the stories and topics Kevin covered this morning: Trump strikes a trade deal with the EU; Chevron will soon be able to restart oil production in Venezuela; Chevron gets approval from the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris for a major acquisition; Chevron announces layoffs in the Houston area; on Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department released June Durable Goods Orders; Industry experts discuss Transport Merger and Acquisition during the first half of 2025; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historic perspective, offers his insights and an opinion or two. Kevn talks about the Federal Reserve meeting this week, mentioning that much of the data, upon which the Fed claims they make their decision, is being released before they have had a chance to analyze it. Oil reacts to the U.S. and EU trade agreement, President Trump shortening the deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine, OPEC+ stresses the need for full compliance with output limits from their members and continuing trade discussions between the U.S. and China.

Oil prices have edged higher following the recent EU trade agreement with the US, which prevents the imposition of higher tariffs. While details are still being finalized, the agreement is seen as a positive step for oil markets, with OPEC+ members set to meet next weekend to discuss September production. Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

Shipowners grapple with OPEC+ supply increases, tensions in the Middle East and rising numbers of newbuildings.In a five-part series mid-year we take stock of shipping markets in the first six months of the year and look ahead to the remainder of the 2025 with experts Maritime Strategies International (MSI).In this fourth part the Seatrade Maritime Podcast talks with Tim Smith from MSI about the performance and outlook for the tanker shipping market.Listen to the episode now to learn where the market is headedIf you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to ensure you don't miss our latest uploads. For the latest news on the shipping and maritime industries, visit www.searade-maritime.com.Connect with Marcus Hand, Editor of Seatrade Maritime News:Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/marcushand1 Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcus-hand-b00a317/Don't forget to join the conversation and let us know what topics you want us to cover in future on Twitter, Facebook or LinkedIn

WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.Last week we published a written post that took a fresh look at a long standing theme of ours “obliterating peak oil demand” (here). We dug into OPEC Research's most recent World Oil Outlook report (here) to compare OPEC's more optimistic view of long-term oil demand to more bearish forecasts from the IEA and frankly many other leading energy voices. Our own outlook is closely aligned with OPEC's in recognizing the massive unmet energy needs of the other 7 billion people on Earth. The idea that anyone can know today that oil demand is going to permanently peak within the next decade is something we push back hard on. That post has sparked a number of questions, five of which we will aim to address today.Our On A Personal Note this week remembers heavy metal pioneer Ozzy Osbourne, who passed away on July 21. I was fortunate to catch a Black Sabbath reunion tour in 2016.

Subscribe to Our Substack For Daily InsightsWant to Add Oil & Gas To Your Portfolio? Fill Out Our Oil & Gas Portfolio SurveyNeed Power For Your Data Center, Hospital, or Business?Follow Stuart On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stuturley/ and Twitter: https://twitter.com/STUARTTURLEY16Follow Michael On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelta... and Twitter: https://twitter.com/mtanner_1Timestamps:00:00 - Intro00:15 - OPEC is Looking for Market Share While Playing the Long Game04:57 - EU Lowers Russian Oil Cap to $47.60 in New Sanctions Package, but Will It Do Anything?08:58 - Which Energy Markets are Moving12:23 - EQT Calls on Congress to Slash Gas Project Approval Times15:34 - California Oversteps Its Borders: Forcing Energy Policies on the Rest of the United States20:04 - If Alberta Referendum to Become the 51st State Gains Traction, What Would the Financial Reality Look Like?23:50 - President Trump Announces Three New Trade Deals26:58 - Does the Oil and Gas Industry Need $18 Trillion for Investment to Keep Prices Down?29:02 - OutroLinks to articles discussed:OPEC is Looking for Market Share While Playing the Long GameEU Lowers Russian Oil Cap to $47.60 in New Sanctions Package, but Will It Do Anything?Which Energy Markets are MovingEQT Calls on Congress to Slash Gas Project Approval TimesCalifornia Oversteps Its Borders: Forcing Energy Policies on the Rest of the United StatesIf Alberta Referendum to Become the 51st State Gains Traction, What Would the Financial Reality Look Like?President Trump Announces Three New Trade DealsDoes the Oil and Gas Industry Need $18 Trillion for Investment to Keep Prices Down?

  Oil is going through a period of uneasy calm. The higher-than-expected rise in OPEC+ production quotas for August, combined with a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, has provided oil markets some breathing space and introduced a bearish sentiment to prices, but new EU sanctions on Russia and the possibility of additional secondary sanctions by Washington could alter the price and trade flow scenarios. In this episode of Platts Oil Markets Podcast, Asia Energy Editor Sambit Mohanty discusses with Rahul Kapoor, vice president and head of oil shipping analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and Dan Colover, head of oil and chemicals market engagement, on the implications of some of these developments on Asia.

Dan Deming examines the commodities market. He cites several reasons for gold coming under pressure and is watching the “psychological” $3,400 level. He sees silver supply “stretched” and thinks copper markets are hitting all-time highs because of tariffs and the “huge lead time” for production. On crude, he points to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting, which he cites as one of the reasons oil isn't able to gain right now.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode of the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup, Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner dive into the dominance of natural gas, OPEC's evolving production strategy, and the EU's 18th ineffective sanctions package against Russia. They discuss shifting LNG dynamics, U.S. deregulation efforts, and the growing geopolitical energy divide. The hosts also break down Chevron's win over Exxon in the Hess acquisition, speculate on Exxon's next M&A targets, and highlight the financial and regulatory pressures shaping global energy markets.Subscribe to Our Substack For Daily InsightsWant to Add Oil & Gas To Your Portfolio? Fill Out Our Oil & Gas Portfolio SurveyNeed Power For Your Data Center, Hospital, or Business?Follow Stuart On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stuturley/ and Twitter: https://twitter.com/STUARTTURLEY16Follow Michael On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelta... and Twitter: https://twitter.com/mtanner_1Timestamps:00:00 - Intro00:04 - Natural Gas Has Achieved Dominance and Is No Longer a Bridge Fuel02:43 - OPEC is Looking for Market Share While Playing the Long Game07:30 - EU Lowers Russian Oil Cap to $47.60 in New Sanctions Package, but Will It Do Anything?11:33 - Trump Interior Department Moves to Dismantle ‘Regulatory Favoritism' for Wind, Solar Projects17:17 - Markets Update19:01- U.S. Rig Count Up: Weekly Update and Global Overview19:26 - Frac Count Update19:31 - Chevron closes Hess acquisition after winning Exxon legal battle31:23 - OutroLinks to articles discussed:Natural Gas Has Achieved Dominance and Is No Longer a Bridge FuelOPEC is Looking for Market Share While Playing the Long GamEU Lowers Russian Oil Cap to $47.60 in New Sanctions Package, but Will It Do Anything?Trump Interior Department Moves to Dismantle ‘Regulatory Favoritism' for Wind, Solar ProjectsU.S. Rig Count Up: Weekly Update and Global OverviewChevron closes Hess acquisition after winning Exxon legal battle

Krize na Blízkém východě a především několikadenní válka Izraele a Íránu krátkodobě zvedly globální ceny pohonných hmot, což se podepsalo i na peněženkách spotřebitelů. V budoucích měsících mohou náklady zůstat nižší, především díky navýšení těžby členů kartelu OPEC. „Zdá se, že OPEC po nějaké době dospěl k rozhodnutí, že je potřeba zapojovat o tržní podíl a že jeho členové vydrží i nižší ceny,“ říká v pořadu Řečí peněz ekonomka Ilona Švihlíková.

HR1 TSA, Oil Prices and what OPEC Did, Failed Global Warming Predictions 7-16-25 by John Rush

June consumer inflation coming in as expected: Carl Quintanilla and Sara Eisen broke down the key categories to watch, sectors most impacted by tariffs, and what it all means for stocks alongside the Fed. Famed investor Mario Gabelli joined the team with his take on it all – along with some specific stock picks… While Former Fed Governor Randy Kroszner argued today's print doesn't move the needle on rates. Plus: a deep-dive on the big banks, as JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo kick off earnings from the group this week (all beating estimates).  Also in focus: the President's headed to Pittsburgh today for Pennsylvania's first ever Energy and Innovation Summit… with billions of dollars in deals and commitments around AI and data centers expected to be (or already) announced. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright joined the team live from the ground with his answers to America's growing power needs – along with recent OPEC developments, and more.

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter start by talking about Jackie's recent op-ed in the Globe and Mail, titled “Yes, absolutely – Canada needs more oil and gas pipelines to our coasts,” also available on the ARC Energy Research Institute website. Next, Peter and Jackie review the fundamentals of oil prices, the muted effect of the 12-day Iran-Israel war, and why oil prices have been creeping up despite weaker short-term fundamentals. Peter argues that the growing importance of “geoeconomics” - where countries use economic tools to influence foreign affairs - means that predicting oil prices will no longer be just about counting barrels. In the future, one of the most significant factors shaping oil markets will be the geoeconomic strategies of nations, including actions such as sanctions, tariffs, and withholding supply. Finally, Jackie and Peter discuss President Trump's recent letters to numerous countries threatening higher tariffs effective August 1st, including a letter to Canada with 35% tariffs on Canadian goods. Washington also introduced global copper tariffs. This is the last podcast before a break; the podcast will resume at the end of summer. Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify

In this episode of the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup, Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner tackle the failures of sanctions on Russia, California's self-inflicted energy crisis under net-zero policies, and the economic fallout from offshore wind failures. They also discuss Trump's controversial tariff threats, Russia's seizure of Ukraine's lithium assets, and Saudi Aramco's financial pressures under low oil prices. The episode wraps with market updates, oil supply dynamics, and OPEC's production shortfalls amid tight global inventories.Highlights of the Podcast 00:00 - Intro00:14 - California continues to devastate its economy for a net-zero dream world03:39 - 100 Percent Secondary Tariffs if no end to the Russia/Ukraine war in 50 days – President Trump07:16 - Town Reaches $10.5 Million Settlement with GE Vernova over Vineyard Wind Blade Failure08:49 - Why Aramco Can't Win Under Trump's Oil Price Doctrine13:17 - Markets Update14:49 - Oil Supply Surge Not Impacting Tight Oil Market17:48 - OutroPlease see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.California continues to devastate its economy for a net-zero dream world100 Percent Secondary Tariffs if no end to the Russia/Ukraine war in 50 days – President TrumpTown Reaches $10.5 Million Settlement with GE Vernova over Vineyard Wind Blade FailureWhy Aramco Can't Win Under Trump's Oil Price DoctrineOil Supply Surge Not Impacting Tight Oil MarketFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB Top NewsEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB SubstackENB Trading DeskOil & Gas InvestingNeed Power For Your Data Center, Hospital, or Business?– Get in Contact With The Show –

Geopolitical disruption in shipping has reached new heights in the first half of 2025 and Maritime Strategies International examine the impact on markets and what is the outlook ahead. The first half of the year has seen shipping markets impacted by President Trump's tariffs, the United States Trade Representative 301 investigation into Chinese shipbuilding, conflict in the Middle East, and ongoing sanctions and war in Ukraine.The Seatrade Maritime Podcast takes stock of movements in shipping markets over the first six months of 2025 and looks ahead at expectations for the remainder of the year.In this latest shipping markets outlook episode we are joined by analysts from Maritime Strategies International (MSI) to take a look at the outlook for containers, tankers, dry bulk, and shipbuilding in the second half of the year.Seatrade Maritime News Editor Marcus Hand discusses the outlook for shipping markets with Adam Kent, Daniel Richards, Will Fray, and Tim Smith from MSI.Setting the scene Adam says, “It's been yet another busy six months from a shipping market perspective, and I think there's even more moving parts now that we're having to grapple with, and these come on top of the ones that we have the start of the year.”Hear from the experts on their opinions about where different sectors are headed and learn about key trends impacting major sectors including:The impact of US President Trump's on/off tariffs on the container shipping marketWeak Chinese dry bulk demand and is China still the engine of growth for the sector?The impact of OPEC+ supply increases on demand in the tanker marketHow much do Korean and Japanese shipbuilders stand to gain from USTR fees on Chinese built and owned ships called US ports?Get ahead on the outlook for shipping in the second half of 2025 by listening to the full episode nowIf you enjoyed this episode, please subscribe to ensure you don't miss our latest uploads. For the latest news on the shipping and maritime industries, visit www.searade-maritime.com.Connect with Marcus Hand, Editor of Seatrade Maritime News:Follow on Twitter: https://twitter.com/marcushand1 Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcus-hand-b00a317/Don't forget to join the conversation and let us know what topics you want us to cover in future on Twitter, Facebook or LinkedIn

Patrick DeHaan of Gasbuddy.com says the Trump Administration's change in relationship with OPEC allowed for more oil production, which he called a game-changer. NAFB News ServiceSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's a wide-ranging show today, with Ben Cook, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Energy Transition and Hennessy Mid-Stream funds, giving his latest take on the energy sector, noting that the industry is well-positioned to at least not be hurt while tariff policies play out, even as the U.S. has become the world's largest oil-producing nation and the OPEC nations are looking to improve their fortunes. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF — which he featured as ETF of the Week at the beginning of March and which gained 78 percent during the second quarter of 2025 — noting that miners and spot crypto funds serve different purposes in a portfolio, but that both are poised for more growth now. Melissa Stephenson discusses her research for Sudokubliss.com that looked at the theme parks that provide good value for your money while keeping lines short enough that complaints are few, and Chuck does a deep dive on the so-called "Trump accounts" that were created within the budget bill that was signed into law last week. These accounts give $1,000 to every baby born in the country to U.S. citizens between 2025 through 2028 — including the grandchild Chuck's daughter is expecting in August — and he talks about the benefits of the program (beyond the cash infusion) and compares it to other savings vehicles.

Dozens of freight, trucking and other industry leaders have praised the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA); Kevin has their comments and points out some of the key features as it affects taxpayers at all levels of income. A major food company files for bankruptcy; Kevin has the details. Oil and gas prices react to crude oil stocks rising, strong gasoline demand, OPEC+'s crude oil production increases and renewed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

Dozens of freight, trucking and other industry leaders have praised the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA); Kevin has their comments and points out some of the key features as it affects taxpayers at all levels of income. A major food company files for bankruptcy; Kevin has the details. Oil and gas prices react to crude oil stocks rising, strong gasoline demand, OPEC+'s crude oil production increases and renewed attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.

Today we were delighted to welcome Jack Belcher and Sarah Venuto of Cornerstone Government Affairs, along with Brook Papau, CEO of Orennia, for a discussion focused on the energy implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB). Jack, a Principal at Cornerstone, has over 30 years of experience in energy and energy policy, having previously served as Manager of Regulatory Affairs and Policy at Shell and Staff Director for the U.S. House Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources. Sarah, Principal and Counsel, joined Cornerstone in 2023 following roles as Director of the Office of External Affairs at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Senior Advisor and Chief Counsel to Senator Joe Manchin, and Democratic Staff Director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. Brook founded Orennia in 2021 and previously served as Managing Director at RS Energy Group (now Enverus). Between Jack, Sarah, and Brook, we had a wealth of insight and expertise that fueled a thoughtful and detailed conversation. In our discussion, we explore the implications of the OBBB for U.S. energy policy, including a shift in emphasis toward fossil fuels (particularly natural gas), along with a renewed focus on reliability and dispatchability. Jack shares his perspective on the “winners” (oil and gas, nuclear, geothermal, and hydrogen) and “losers” (wind and solar), major changes to clean energy tax credits, and the pullback of unobligated funds from federal agencies reclaiming money originally authorized under the IRA. We discuss the introduction of Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions across tax credits, intended to accelerate the reshoring of critical supply chains, and how the current energy tax credit framework increasingly aligns with Trump Administration energy priorities. Brook shares implications for the U.S. grid and power mix, including anticipated delayed retirements of natural gas facilities, a near-term rush to install solar, wind, and storage while tax credits remain in place, severe supply chain constraints for new thermal generation, and growing post-2028 uncertainty as AI-driven demand growth threatens to outpace renewable power additions for the first time. Sarah describes the evolving U.S. energy policy landscape, with regulatory loosening across federal agencies, reduced enforcement capacity due to staffing cuts, and a return to traditional energy provisions, including reinstated onshore and offshore lease sales, lowered royalty rates, renewed support for drilling in Alaska, and accelerated tax treatment for intangible drilling costs. We examine the continued bipartisan support for nuclear, growing cross-party momentum for reshoring advanced manufacturing and critical supply chains, the inflation implications of phasing out tax credits, the partial permitting reforms included in the bill, the importance of codifying reforms into law to avoid policy reversals, early industry reaction to the bill, and much more. As mentioned, a few slides from Orennia's latest report on the OBBB are linked here. It was an engaging and insightful conversation, and we greatly appreciate Jack, Sarah, and Brook for sharing their perspectives. Mike Bradley opened the conversation by highlighting broader equity market performance, recent OPEC+ developments, and President Trump's surprising proposal to implement a copper import tariff. On the broader equity market front, markets have mostly moved sideways this week after posting all-time highs last week on passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. Trumpatility is beginning to resurface ahead of President Trump's July 9th tariff deadline. Upcoming CPI and PPI reports, due next week, could significantly influence whether the Fed moves to cut interest rates at the July 30th FOMC Meeting. Additionally, Q2 reporting begins

Discover how oil and gas will be at the heart of any peace deal between Iran and Israel. Energy issues will also be critical to any expansion of Trump's Abraham Accords. Ellen Wald, author of “Saudi, Inc.,” joins Mike with analysis of a region that is on the brink of massive change. SHOW NOTES: 3:56: How Did The U.S. Help Saudi Arabia Become The Leader of OPEC? 7:13: How Is Saudi Arabia's Attempt To Diversify Its Economy Going? 11:43: Is The Time Right For Trump To Expand The Abraham Accords? 16:51: What Are The Chances Of Another Revolution In Iran? 22:39: How Is Syria's Oil Sector Attractive to Many Regional Actors? 

In this episode of the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup, breaks down the global oil and gas rebound in today's Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies are ramping up output in Nigeria and Libya, signaling a major pivot back to fossil fuels. Meanwhile, OPEC+ production promises face real limits as members struggle to meet quotas. In the U.S., drilling slows and the EIA cuts its 2025 crude output forecast. Turley warns: without trillions in new investment, the world risks a severe supply crunch by 2030.Highlights of the Podcast 00:00 - Intro00:00 - Intro01:06 - Shell and TotalEnergies Boosting Oil and Gas Output in Nigeria: A Global Trend with Financial Implications02:27 - Shell and BP Back to Business in Libya: UK Oil Giants Follow U.S. Majors Abroad, Doubling Down on Oil and Gas04:15 - Oil Markets Don't Panic on the OPEC+ Production Push: Are They Maxed Out, and What Does It Mean for Global Oil Markets?07:01 - US Cuts 2025 Crude Output Growth Forecast as Drilling Slows09:26 - The World Needs Trillions in Oil and Gas Investment to Avoid a Supply Crunch13:20 - OutroPlease see the links below or articles that we discuss in the podcast.Shell and TotalEnergies Boosting Oil and Gas Output in Nigeria: A Global Trend with Financial ImplicationsShell and BP Back to Business in Libya: UK Oil Giants Follow U.S. Majors Abroad, Doubling Down on Oil and GasOil Markets Don't Panic on the OPEC+ Production Push: Are They Maxed Out, and What Does It Mean for Global Oil Markets?US Cuts 2025 Crude Output Growth Forecast as Drilling SlowsThe World Needs Trillions in Oil and Gas Investment to Avoid a Supply CrunchFollow Stuart On LinkedIn and TwitterFollow Michael On LinkedIn and TwitterENB Top NewsEnergy DashboardENB PodcastENB SubstackENB Trading DeskOil & Gas InvestingNeed Power For Your Data Center, Hospital, or Business?– Get in Contact With The Show –

Kevin talks about the celebration and events of Independence Day and the weekend. What happened to newspapers? While cleaning out his office, Kevin found some old newspapers. Kevin takes a walk down memory lane and how the industry destroyed itself. The "One Big Beautiful Bill" has been signed; Kevin takes a look at some of the details of the bill, especially as it affects individuals. Oil reacts to crude oil production increases from OPEC+ and increases in demand as it appears the world economic conditions are increasing.

Simon's on holiday in sunny Durban

Dan is flying solo to discuss a better-than-expected June jobs report, a strong market performance with the SPX and NDX seeing significant gains, and specific stock performances like Nvidia and Taiwan Semi as major tech leaders. The discussion also includes the impact of Trump's trade deals, geopolitical tensions, and sentiment indicators like CNN's Fear & Greed Index. Lastly, the episode touches on the implications of OPEC's decision on oil production and the upcoming events such as the Fed meeting minutes and initial jobless claims. Further Reading Trump Sets Aug. 1 Start for Tariffs Ahead of Wednesday Deadline (Bloomberg) Donald Trump threatens extra 10% tariff over ‘anti-American' Brics policies (Financial Times) Looking Beyond the U.S. for Trade, Canada Begins Shipping Natural Gas to Asia (NYTimes) OPEC Plus Agrees to Pump More Oil in August (NYTimes) Chinese sales of foreign phone makers, including Apple, drop 9.7% in May (Reuters) Meme Stocks and YOLO Bets Are Back and Fueling the Market's Rally (WSJ) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold return to discuss the Swedish inflation shock, AI's growing impact on labor markets, OPEC's price war strategy, and the Trump's looming trade deal deadline. They break down whether the market is misunderstanding Trump's tariff strategy, which countries may strike deals, and why tech employment is at an inflection point.

US equity futures are lower with S&P pointing down. Bonds mixed. US 10-year yields holding at 4.3%, and 2-year down to 3.9%. Asian markets are trading mostly lower, European equity markets narrowly mixed. Dollar firmer. Oil down after OPEC+ producers announced agreement to boost crude output by larger-than-expected 548Kbpd in August. Gold lower. Industrial metals weaker. Tariff deadline nears as US warns it will begin imposing "take it or leave it" trade terms. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned tariffs to revert to Liberation Day/steeper levels though also signaled some leeway by adding that new tariffs to take effect on 1-Aug. Still there's some uncertainty whether Asian countries can secure trade agreements with US by the deadline. Companies Mentioned: Capgemini, WNS Holdings, META Platforms, NFDG, ByteDance

Scott Bauer covers the commodities markets. “Gold's trajectory is absolutely still to the upside,” he says, giving some price levels he's targeting. On oil, he thinks the OPEC+ hike was “not as bad as it could have been,” and with worldwide demand increasing, price is currently in the green. However, a “7 handle” is a “real sell” for him.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

07 Jul 2025. We speak to oil expert Matt Stanley to put that in context for us. Plus, it’s a big week in Trumpian economics: tariff threats, deal deadlines, and a “big beautiful” bill passed. We unpack it all with Daniel Richards from Emirates NBD. And PwC’s latest outlook brings a mix of AI-driven opportunity and climate-driven risk, we speak to the team behind the report.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region cautious ahead of upcoming key events, including central bank announcements and the July 9th tariff deadline.US President Trump said 12 nations will receive tariff letters on Monday (deliveries to start from 17:00BST). Also, threatened 10% additional tariff for those aligned with BRICS.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said letters to trading partners will notify them that if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels; tariffs to take effect on August 1st.European equity futures indicate a quiet open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 1% on Friday.DXY has kicked the week off on the front foot, antipodeans lag alongside the soft risk tone, EUR/USD remains on a 1.17 handle.Crude pressured after OPEC+ accelerated its output hike with an increase of 548k bpd for August (prev. 411k bpd increase).Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Swedish CPIF (Flash), EZ Sentix & Retail Sales, BoE Gilt sale operation.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said 12 nations will receive tariff letters on Monday (deliveries to start from 17:00BST). Also, threatened 10% additional tariff for those aligned with BRICS.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said letters to trading partners will notify them that if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels; tariffs to take effect on August 1st.European bourses began the day with modest gains but action is tentative, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.3%; ES -0.4% amid trade uncertainty, NQ -0.5% underperforms on TSLA -6.5%USD firmer vs all major peers. Antipodeans hit by the tone, JPY on the USD strength and soft domestic wage data, Cable below 1.36 and EUR/USD at a 1.1723 lowFixed benchmarks contained and experiencing two-way trade into the tariff letters, USTs near-enough unchanged, Bunds lower but off worstCrude began on the backfoot after OPEC+ eight agreeing to increase output by 548k (prev. 411k); since, benchmarks off lows and modestly firmer. Metals dented by the USD.Looking ahead, highlights include supply from the UK (BoE Gilt sale), US President Trump meeting Israeli PM Netanyahu & US tariff lettersClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Eight OPEC+ members met over the weekend and agreed to a production increase of 548 kb/d for August, surpassing previous monthly increases. While this decision comes as a surprise to the market, the actual impact on supply may be limited due to several members already exceeding their targets. Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

OPEC and its allies have announced a decision to increase oil output by 548,000 barrels per day in next month.

We are very pleased to share a special Fourth of July edition of COBT. Earlier in the week, we had the opportunity to tour the Lone Star Flight Museum (LSFM) and to sit down with Jerry Scott, LSFM's Chief Operating Officer and Director of Flight Operations. The museum draws visitors from all over the world and features flying historical aircraft, many of them iconic military planes. Jerry was named COO in June 2024 and has 40 years of experience in aviation sales as well as people, project, and logistics management. He previously served as a volunteer at LSFM for 15 years and as a crew chief and plane captain for several of the museum's aircraft. For our conversation, we sat right next to a B-25, the same type of aircraft flown by Jimmy Doolittle and his squadron. This particular plane has been meticulously restored to the exact standards of the Doolittle Raiders' aircraft, making it an especially unique setting for our discussion. We were thrilled to visit with Jerry and to get to spend time with the team at the museum. Special thanks to LSFM's CEO Anna Hawley for all her help in particular. In our conversation, we explore the parallels between modern military missions and World War II operations, the extraordinary bravery of the Doolittle Raiders, the unique similarity of the Doolittle mission to the recent US strikes on Iran, and Jerry's personal journey and passion for aviation. We discuss LSFM's mission to honor veterans and preserve their stories for future generations through a living, flying museum, the pilot training progression required to fly historic aircraft, the museum's move from Galveston to Ellington Field after Hurricane Ike, and the critical role of volunteers in keeping the operations running. Jerry shares insights into the museum's reach, welcoming over 100,000 visitors annually, its rotating aircraft exhibits, and its broader community impact through educational programs and events. We reflect on Jimmy Doolittle's legacy, the spirit of innovation and sacrifice that defines American aviation history, and the museum's vision to inspire future leaders. As mentioned, the “Thirty Seconds Over Tokyo” film is available on Amazon Prime (linked here). A huge thank you to Jerry and the team at LSFM for their support in making today's episode possible. We highly recommend planning a trip to the museum to see the aircraft up close! To start the show, Mike Bradley highlighted a handful of key events that influenced markets in 1H25 including President Trump's import tariffs (Day of Liberation), Trump's One Big Beautiful Budget Bill (OBBB), the Israeli-Iranian War/U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and OPEC's substantial/surprising accelerated oil output hikes. For our Canadian friends, we hope you had a fantastic Canada Day on Tuesday. For everyone celebrating the Fourth today, we hope you have a great day filled with food, family, friends, and fun. God bless you, and God Bless America. Have a wonderful Independence Day!

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Nonfarm Payrolls Report was released today and the Initial Jobless Claims Report was released by the U.S. Department of Labor; Kevin looks at the data, digs into details, offers his insights/opinion and puts the information into historic perspective. The American Transportation Research Institute released their 2025 findings "An Analysis of the Operational Costs of Trucking"; Kevin discusses the results. Oil and gas prices react to various crude oil inventory data, the pending July 9th end to the tariffs pause. OPEC+ discussions, world economic news and U.S. economic news. Kevin offers his thoughts, appreciation and love of Independence Day.

Editors Jimmy Lovaas and Jess Fino discuss the heat wave wreaking havoc in Europe, plus more on the Dalai Lama revealing a succession plan, an OPEC+ meeting, Israel's prime minister visiting Washington, D.C., and Trump's tariff pause set to expire.Subscribe to the show: Apple Podcasts, Spotify and many more. These stories and others are also available in our free weekly Forecast newsletter.This episode includes work from Factal editors Jess Fino, Hua Hsieh, Alex Moore, Agnese Boffano and Jeff Landset. Produced and edited by Jimmy Lovaas. Music courtesy of Andrew Gospe. Have feedback, suggestions or events we've missed? Drop us a note: hello@factal.comWhat's Factal? Created by the founders of Breaking News, Factal alerts companies to global incidents that pose an immediate risk to their people or business operations. We provide trusted verification, precise incident mapping and a collaboration platform for corporate security, travel safety and emergency management teams. If you're a company interested in a trial, please email sales@factal.com. To learn more, visit Factal.com, browse the Factal blog or email us at hello@factal.com.Read the full episode description and transcript on Factal's blog.Copyright © 2025 Factal. All rights reserved.

We're almost at the end of our 1977 series, but in true LITM fashion why have just one show on a topic when you could have two? Across this and the next episode we'll be filling in a few gaps we haven't touched on so far, and providing some broad economic and political scene-setting for this seminal year in both Britain and the States. In this episode we hear about the emergent neoliberal order, the oil crisis, austerity then and now, and OPEC. Jeremy and Tim consider escapism in music and film, Punk, Mods, the Silver Jubilee and the decline of the British Empire. They discuss the mighty Paul Weller, the Sex Pistols, Alice in Wonderland, and dig deep into the crates for the James Bond theme as you've never heard it before...Next time we'll be looking to America for our final show of this run.Do check out the podcasts Jem shouts out in end notes of this show. We're listing them here, you can find them wherever you find this:Pro Revolution SoccerRed MedicinePolitics Theory OtherProduced by Matt Huxley.Become a patron for as little as £3 per month by visiting Patreon.com/LoveMessagePod.We are now on Youtube! Find series 6 here: https://www.youtube.com/@LITMPodcastRemember, we have a rolling playlist of all the tracks discussed over on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/3ZpKyqhvhOXfTuPMHCBkFsTracklist:Biddu Orchestra - James Bond Disco Theme (Journey into Fantasy) The Jam - In The City The Jam - Eton Rifles Sex Pistols - God Save the Queen Talking Heads - Don't Worry About the Government 

Iran has used its status as a leading oil and gas producer to promote dedollarization, rejecting the US dollar and trading with China, Russia, India, and other BRICS members in their national currencies. Ben Norton explains the Western economic war on Iran, and Tehran's response. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ziGNmvOh6k US pressures Saudi Arabia to sell oil in dollars, not Chinese yuan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmYybJZo3fo The real reasons for the US-Israeli war on Iran, explained: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwH780cEcEQ Topics 0:00 US dollar's "exorbitant privilege" 0:50 Sanctions: weaponization of US dollar 1:33 De-dollarization 3:54 Economic warfare 5:15 History of US meddling in Iran 6:41 Geopolitics of oil 7:22 Iranian leaders promote de-dollarization 8:42 BRICS trade in national currencies 10:33 Iran's oil and gas production 10:51 Gulf flirts with petroyuan 11:34 History of petrodollar system 12:31 OPEC oil embargo 13:55 Saudi King Faisal 14:30 OPEC oil embargo 14:55 Nixon-Kissinger deal with Saudis 16:50 Super Imperialism 17:39 Oil backs US seigniorage 19:31 Saudi Arabia and petrodollar 20:20 US pressure on Saudi Arabia 21:44 War on Iran 22:27 Why USA wants regime change 23:47 Outro

US equity futures are higher with S&P up 0.4%. US 10-year and 2-year yield both point down . Dollar softer versus yen, slightly firmer elsewhere. Oil down ahead of another expected OPEC and production hike. Gold firmer. Industrial metals higher. Asian equity markets are mixed. Nikkei has been outperforming to hit twelve month high. European markets are firmer. In trade developments, Canada to rescind digital services tax after Trump threatened to pull out of trade talks on Friday. Trump said he doesn't think he'll need to extend tariff 9-Jul deadline, contrasting somewhat with Treasury Secretary Bessent. Somewhat better news on US-China trade talks after both sides confirmed details on framework agreement where China relaxes rare earth exports and US removes countermeasures. Companies Mentioned: Torrent Pharmaceuticals, JB Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, KKR, Avadel Pharmaceuticals

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture Europe is trouble, with event in Iran they are now seeing they are vulnerable in regards to LNG. Inflation ticked up .2%, this is not inflation this is a fluctuation. The inflation people are feeling is from the Biden admin. OPEC is ready to increase capacity, what happens to inflation. Trump trade deals incoming. The [DS] is losing every step of the way. The SC just ruled the nationwide injunctions are not constitutional. Trump can now continue with his policies, remember the judges they will nee to be impeached. Is Trump setting the Obama with U1. Lindsey is saying that 900lbs of Uranium is missing. Lindsey is an Iron Eagle. Iran was much more than people think. Its to expose it all.   Economy https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1938402609364082979 Europe's LNG Gamble Exposed By Middle East War The Israel-Iran conflict has driven up diesel, jet fuel, and gas prices. With 20% of global LNG flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, even threats of disruption have raised EU gas prices by 20%. Europe's refusal to sign long-term LNG deals or develop local hydrocarbon resources is backfiring. Oil and the security of its supply have stolen the media spotlight in the context of the new Middle East war, and with good reason. Ever since Israel first bombed Iran, diesel prices have soared, jet fuel prices have soared, and importers have been troubled. For Europe, the situation is even worse due to natural gas. Europe has been hurt more than others by the diesel price surge because it has boosted its imports considerably over the past years. About 20% of the diesel Europe consumes comes from imports, and a lot of these imports come from the Middle East. The situation is not much different in jet fuel. Europe depends on imports and a solid chunk of these imports comes from the Middle East. What's true of these essential fuels is doubly true of natural gas—even though direct imports of gas from the Middle East constitute a modest 10% of total imports. Yet they constitute a substantial portion of global gas exports, so any suggestion of disrupted supply affects gas prices in exactly the same way it has affected oil prices—and makes a vital commodity less affordable for Europeans.  Europe needs to refill its gas storage caverns for next winter. Even if it cancels the 90% refill rate requirement, it still needs to buy a lot of gas, most of it on the spot market because of that aversion to long-term gas commitments it believes is part and parcel of the transition effort. And geopolitics has made LNG costlier—which will add billions to the refill bill. Source: zerohedge.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1938575712757133319   1. Sticky Services Inflation Core PCE (which excludes food and energy) is heavily weighted toward services, such as housing, healthcare, and financial services. Services inflation has proven persistent, especially in housing rent, insurance, and healthcare costs. 2. Labor Market Strength The job market remains tight: unemployment is low and wages are still rising. Higher wages boost consumer spending, which keeps demand elevated, especially in non-goods sectors like leisure,

Episode 475 Why did OPEC+ “unexpectedly” increase curtailed oil production in April?  Sign up for free ALERTs & Market Commentary at:  https://www.investablewealth.com/subscribe/ ------------------------------------------------------

This week we talk about OPEC, the Seven Sisters, and the price of oil.We also discuss fracking, Israel and Iran's ongoing conflict, and energy exports.Recommended Book: Thirteen Ways to Kill Lulabelle Rock by Maud WoolfTranscriptThe global oil market changed substantially in the early 2000s as a pair of innovations—horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing—helped the plateauing US oil and gas market boom, unlocking a bunch of shale oil and gas deposits that were previously either entirely un-utilizable, or too expensive to exploit.This same revolution changed markets elsewhere, too, including places like Western Canada, which also has large shale oil and gas deposits, but the US, and especially the southern US, and even more especially the Permian Basin in Texas, has seen simply staggering boosts to output since those twin-innovations were initially deployed on scale.This has changed all sorts of dynamics, both locally, where these technologies and approaches have been used to tap ever-more fossil fuel sources, and globally, as previous power dynamics related to such resources have been rewired.Case in point, in the second half of the 20th century, OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which is a predominantly Middle Eastern oil cartel that was founded by Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela in 1960, was a dominant force in geopolitics, as they collaboratively set global oil prices, and thus, were able to pull the strings connected to elections, war, and economic outcomes in nations around the world.If oil prices suddenly spiked, that could cause an incumbent leader in a country a hemisphere away to lose their next election, and if anyone threatened one of their number, they could conceivably hold back resources from that country until they cooled down.Before OPEC formed and established their position of primacy in global energy exports, the so-called Seven Sisters corporations, which consisted of a bunch of US and European companies that had basically stepped in and took control of global oil rights in the early 20th century, including oil rights across the Middle East, were the loci of power in this space, controlling about 85% of the world's petroleum reserves as of the early 1970s.That same decade, though, a slew of governments that hosted Seven Sisters facilities and reserves nationalized these assets, which in practice made all these reserves and the means of exploiting them the government's property, and in most cases they were then reestablished under new, government-controlled companies, like Saudi Aramco in Saudi Arabia and the National Iranian Oil Company in Iran.In 1973 and 1979, two events in the Middle East—the Yom Kippur War, during which pretty much all of Israel's neighbors launched a surprise attack against Israel, and the Iranian Revolution, when the then-leader of Iran, the Shah, who was liberalizing the country while also being incredibly corrupt, was overthrown by the current government, the militantly Islamist Islamic Republic of Iran—those two events led to significant oil export interruptions that triggered oil shortages globally, because of how dominant this cartel had become.This shortage triggered untold havoc in many nations, especially those that were growing rapidly in the post-WWII, mid-Cold War world, because growth typically requires a whole lot of energy for all the manufacturing, building, traveling around, and for basic, business and individual consumption: keeping the lights on, cooking, and so on.This led to a period of stagflation, and in fact the coining of the term, stagflation, but it also led to a period of heightened efficiency, because nations had to learn how to achieve growth and stability without using so much energy, and it led to a period of all these coming-out-of-stagflation and economic depression nations trying to figure out how to avoid having this happen again.So while OPEC and other oil-rich nations were enjoying a period of relative prosperity, due in part to those elevated energy prices—after the initial downsides of those conflicts and revolutions had calmed, anyway—other parts of the world were making new and more diversified deals, and were looking in their own backyards to try to find more reliable suppliers of energy products.Parts of the US were already major oil producers, if not at the same scale as these Middle Eastern giants in the latter portion of the 20th century, and many non-OPEC producers in the US, alongside those in Norway and Mexico, enjoyed a brief influx of revenue because of those higher oil prices, but they, like those OPEC nations, suffered a downswing when prices stabilized; and during that price collapse, OPEC's influence waned.So in the 1980s, onward, the previous paradigm of higher oil prices led to a surge in production globally, everyone trying to take advantage of those high prices to invest in more development and production assets, and that led to a glut of supply that lowered prices, causing a lot of these newly tapped wells to go under, a lot of cheating by OPEC members, and all of the more established players to make far less per barrel of oil than was previously possible.By 1986, oil prices had dropped by nearly half from their 1970s peak, and though prices spiked again in 1990 in response to Iraq's invasion of fellow OPEC-member Kuwait, that spike only last about nine months, and it was a lot less dramatic than those earlier, 70s-era spikes; though it was still enough to trigger a recession in the US and several other countries, and helped pave the way for investment in those technologies and infrastructure that would eventually lead to the US's shale-oil and gas revolution.What I'd like to talk about today is the precariousness of the global oil and gas market right now, at a moment of significantly heightened tensions, and a renewed shooting conflict, in the Middle East.—As of the day I'm recording this, the Islamic Republic of Iran is still governing Iran, and that's an important point to make as while Israel's official justification for launching a recent series of attacks against Iran's military and nuclear production infrastructure is that they don't want Iran to make a nuclear weapon, it also seems a whole lot like they might be aiming to instigate regime change, as well.Israel and Iran's conflict with each other is long-simmering, and this is arguably just the most recent and extreme salvo in a conflict dating back to at least 2024, but maybe earlier than that, too, all the way back to the late-70s or early 80s, if you string all the previous conflicts together into one deconstructed mega-conflict. If you want to know more about that, listen to last week's episode, where I got deeper into the specifics of their mutual dislike.Today, though, I'd like to focus on an issue that is foundational to pretty much every other geopolitical and economic happening, pretty much always, and that's energy. And more specifically, the availability, accessibility, and price of energy resources like oil and gas.We've reached a point, globally, where about 40% of all electricity is generated by renewables, like solar panels, wind turbines, and hydropower-generating dams.That's a big deal, and while the majority of that supply is coming from China, and while it falls short of where we need to be to avoid the worst-case consequences of human-amplified climate change, that growth is really incredible, and it's beginning to change the nature of some of our conflicts and concerns; many of the current economic issues between the US and China, these days are focused on rare earths, for instance, which are required for things like batteries and other renewables infrastructure.That said, oil and gas still enable the modern economy, and that's true almost everywhere, even today. And while the US changed the nature of the global oil and gas industries by heavily investing in both, and then rewired the global energy market by convincing many of its allies to switch to US-generated oil and gas, rather than relying on supplies from Russia, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine a few years ago, a whole lot of these resources still come from at-times quite belligerent regimes, and many of these regimes are located in the Middle East, and belong to OPEC.Iran is one such belligerent regime.As of 2025, Iran is the 9th largest producer of oil in the world, and it holds 24% of the Middle East's and about 12% of the world's proven oil reserves—that's the total volume of oil underground that could be pumped at some point. It's got the world's 3rd largest proven crude oil reserves and it exports about 2 million barrels of crude and refined oil every day. It also has the world's second-largest proven natural gas reserves.Iran isn't as reliant on oil and gas exports as some of its neighbors, but it still pulled in about $53 billion in net oil exports each year as of 2023; which is a lot less than what it could be making, as international sanctions have made it difficult for Iran to fully exploit its reserves. But that's still a huge chunk of its total income.This is important to note because Israel's recent series of attacks on Iran, in addition to taking out a lot of their military leaders, weapons manufacturing facilities, and nuclear research facilities, have also targeted Iran's oil and gas production and export capacity, including large gas plants, fuel depots, and oil refineries, some located close to Tehran in the northern part of the country, and some down on its southwestern coast, where a huge portion of Iran's gas is processed.In light of these attacks, Iran's leaders have said they may close the Strait of Hormuz, though which most of their exports pass—and the Strait of Hormuz is the only marine entryway into the Persian Gulf; nearly 20% of all globally consumed oil passes through this 90-mile-wide stretch of water before reaching international markets; it's a pretty vital waterway that Iran partially controls because its passes by its southern coast.Fuel prices already ticked up by about 9% following Israel's initial strikes into Iran this past week, and there's speculation that prices could surge still-higher, especially following US President Trump's decision to strike several Iran nuclear facilities, coming to Israel's aide, as Israel doesn't possess the ‘bunker-buster' bombs necessary to penetrate deep enough into the earth to damage or destroy many of these facilities.As of Monday this week, oil markets are relatively undisrupted, and if any export flows were to be upset, it would probably just be Iran's, and that would mostly hurt China, which is Iran's prime oil customer, as most of the rest of the world won't deal with them due to export sanctions.That said, there's a possibility that Iran will decide to respond to the US coming to Israel's aid not by striking US assets directly, which could pull the US deeper into the conflict, but instead by disrupting global oil and gas prices, which could lead to knock-on effects that would be bad for the US economy, and the US's relationships with other nations.The straightest path to doing this would be to block the Strait of Hormuz, and they could do this by positioning ships and rocket launchers to strike anything passing through it, while also heavily mining the passage itself, and they've apparently got plenty of mines ready to do just that, should they choose that path.This approach has been described by analysts as the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing, as blocking the Strait would disrupt global oil and gas markets, hurting mostly Asia, as China, India, South Korea, Japan, and other Asian destinations consume something like 80% of the oil that passes through it, but that would still likely raise energy prices globally, which can have a lot of knock-on effects, as we saw during those energy crises I mentioned in the intro.It would hurt Iran itself more than anyone, though, as almost all of their energy products pass through this passage before hitting global markets, and such a move could help outside entities, including the US, justify further involvement in the conflict, where they otherwise might choose to sit it out and let Israel settle its own scores.Such energy market disruption could potentially benefit Russia, which has an energy resource-reliant economy that suffers when oil and gas prices are low, but flourishes when they're high. The Russian government probably isn't thrilled with Israel's renewed attacks on one of its allies, but based on its lack of response to Syria's collapse—the former Syrian government also being an ally of Russia—it's possible they can't or won't do much to directly help Iran right now, but they probably wouldn't complain if they were suddenly able to charge a lot more per barrel of oil, and if customers like China and India were suddenly a lot more reliant on the resources they're producing.Of course, such a move could also enrich US energy companies, though potentially at the expense of the American citizen, and thus at the expense of the Trump administration. Higher fuel prices tend to lead to heightened inflation, and more inflation tends to keep interest rates high, which in turn slows the economy. A lot of numbers could go in the opposite direction from what the Trump administration would like to see, in other words, and that could result in a truly bad outcome for Republicans in 2026, during congressional elections that are already expected to be difficult for the incumbent party.Even beyond the likely staggering human costs of this renewed conflict in the Middle East, then, there are quite a few world-scale concerns at play here, many of which at least touch on, and some of which are nearly completely reliant on, what happens to Iran's oil and gas production assets, and to what degree they decide to use these assets, and the channels through which they pass, in a theoretical asymmetric counterstrike against those who are menacing them.Show Noteshttps://archive.is/20250616111212/https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/an-overview-irans-energy-industry-infrastructure-2025-02-04/https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/15/which-iranian-oil-and-gas-fields-has-israel-hit-and-why-do-they-matterhttps://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/17/mapping-irans-oil-and-gas-sites-and-those-attacked-by-israelhttps://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/6/13/oil-markets-are-spooked-as-iran-israel-tensions-escalatehttps://archive.is/20250620143813/https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/eu-abandons-proposal-to-lower-price-cap-on-russian-oil-to-45https://apnews.com/article/russia-economy-recession-ukraine-conflict-9d105fd1ac8c28908839b01f7d300ebdhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/us-iran-oil.htmlhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg9r4q99g4ohttps://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/04/clean-energy-electricity-nature-and-climate-stories-this-week/https://archive.is/20250622121310/https://www.ft.com/content/67430fac-2d47-4b3b-9928-920ec640638ahttps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Markets-Brace-for-Impact-After-US-Attacks-Iran-Facilities.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/energy-environment/iran-oil-gas-markets.htmlhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504&utm_medium=PressOpshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/business/stocks-us-iran-bombing.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Oilhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fracking_in_Canadahttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fracking_in_the_United_Stateshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_in_the_United_Stateshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_gas_in_the_United_Stateshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yom_Kippur_Warhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolutionhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1970s_energy_crisishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_oil_price_shockhttps://www.strausscenter.org/energy-and-security-project/the-u-s-shale-revolution/https://archive.is/20250416153337/https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-oil-output-peak-by-2027-eia-projects-2025-04-15/https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030415/how-does-price-oil-affect-stock-market.asp This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe Federal Reserve has been in a holding pattern, they have been waiting for event to justify why they are not lowering the rate. War is not coming and they were hoping to raise rates on higher fuel prices which would cause inflation to go up. Trump countered the [CB] and now they are running out of time. Trump has now obliterated the [DS] in Iran, the entire narrative of a nuclear bomb is now gone. Trump has showed the world what strength looks like and now he has the leverage. Iran will be calling him. The people of Iran will begin to rise up, the mullahs are panicking. No war, peace. DHS issues a warning that terrorists might attempt a cyber attack or a physical attack, the [DS] is trying to fight back. This will fail, more people are trusting Trump.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); President Trump Issues a Stern Warning as Iran Parliament's Vote to Close Strait of Hormuz Threatens to Send Oil Prices Through the Roof With the potential closure of the strait on his mind and a potential catastrophic spike in oil prices, Trump sent a powerful message to those seeking to gouge Americans at the gas pump and rake in the profits off the war. “Everyone, keep oil prices down, I'm watching!” Trump wrote in all caps. “You're playing right into the hands of the enemy. Don't do it!” he added. It's anyone's guess at this point what action Trump will take should OPEC and others ignore his message, but Iran has already learned the hard way what happens when you try to call his bluff. Trump later ordered the Department of Energy to act proactively to keep oil and gas prices low, Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1937133481378619475 Strike on Iran, Trump tariffs could drive inflation back up to highest levels in two years ‘More near-term inflation may make the Fed wary of cutting rates imminently,' says James Knightley, ING's chief international economist U.S. inflation remained surprisingly muted through May, with limited impact from President Donald Trump's tariffs. But U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend could contribute to pressures that may send price gains back to the highest levels in two years. Source: marketwatch.com Trump's Iran strikes may have given the Fed another reason to keep rates high Trump wants lower rates, but he may have just given the Fed a new reason to sit tight. America's strikes on Iran sent oil prices higher, a development that could worsen inflation. Source: businessinsider.com Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates due to rising oil prices and inflation risks The Federal Reserve is now heading toward rate hikes as inflation threatens to rise again. The pressure is coming from rising oil prices, triggered by military conflict in the Middle East. Source: msn.com https://twitter.com/DC_Draino/status/1937167751367307731 New York To Build Gigawatt Nuclear Power Plant, Backed By Trump-Era Reforms New York is going to build the first major new US nuclear-power plant in more than 15 years, in what the Wall Street Journal described as "a big test of President Trump's promise to expedite permitt...

For those who haven't heard the announcement I posted, songs from this point on will sometimes be split among multiple episodes, so this is the second part of a two-episode look at the song “Who Knows Where The Time Goes?” by Fairport Convention, and the intertwining careers of Joe Boyd, Sandy Denny, and Richard Thompson. Click the full post to read liner notes, links to more information, and a transcript of the episode. Patreon backers also have a forty-one-minute bonus episode available, on Judy Collins’ version of this song. Tilt Araiza has assisted invaluably by editing, and will hopefully be doing so from now on. Check out Tilt's irregular podcasts at http://www.podnose.com/jaffa-cakes-for-proust and http://sitcomclub.com/ Erratum For about an hour this was uploaded with the wrong Elton John clip in place of “Saturday Sun”. This has now been fixed. Resources Because of the increasing problems with Mixcloud’s restrictions, I have decided to start sharing streaming playlists of the songs used in episodes instead of Mixcloud ones. This Tunemymusic link will let you listen to the playlist I created on your streaming platform of choice — however please note that not all the songs excerpted are currently available on streaming. The songs missing from the Tidal version are “Shanten Bells” by the Ian Campbell Folk Group, “Tom’s Gone to Hilo” by A.L. Lloyd, two by Paul McNeill and Linda Peters, three by Elton John & Linda Peters, “What Will I Do With Tomorrow” by Sandy Denny and “You Never Know” by Charlie Drake, but the other fifty-nine are there. Other songs may be missing from other services. The main books I used on Fairport Convention as a whole were Patrick Humphries' Meet On The Ledge, Clinton Heylin's What We Did Instead of Holidays, and Kevan Furbank's Fairport Convention on Track. Rob Young's Electric Eden is the most important book on the British folk-rock movement. Information on Richard Thompson comes from Patrick Humphries' Richard Thompson: Strange Affair and Thompson's own autobiography Beeswing.  Information on Sandy Denny comes from Clinton Heylin's No More Sad Refrains and Mick Houghton's I've Always Kept a Unicorn. I also used Joe Boyd's autobiography White Bicycles and Chris Blackwell's The Islander.  And this three-CD set is the best introduction to Fairport's music currently in print. Transcript Before we begin, this episode contains reference to alcohol and cocaine abuse and medical neglect leading to death. It also starts with some discussion of the fatal car accident that ended last episode. There’s also some mention of child neglect and spousal violence. If that’s likely to upset you, you might want to skip this episode or read the transcript. One of the inspirations for this podcast when I started it back in 2018 was a project by Richard Thompson, which appears (like many things in Thompson’s life) to have started out of sheer bloody-mindedness. In 1999 Playboy magazine asked various people to list their “songs of the Millennium”, and most of them, understanding the brief, chose a handful of songs from the latter half of the twentieth century. But Thompson determined that he was going to list his favourite songs *of the millennium*. He didn’t quite manage that, but he did cover seven hundred and forty years, and when Playboy chose not to publish it, he decided to turn it into a touring show, in which he covered all his favourite songs from “Sumer Is Icumen In” from 1260: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “Sumer is Icumen In”] Through numerous traditional folk songs, union songs like “Blackleg Miner”, pieces by early-modern composers, Victorian and Edwardian music hall songs, and songs by the Beatles, the Ink Spots, the Kinks, and the Who, all the way to “Oops! I Did It Again”: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “Oops! I Did it Again”] And to finish the show, and to show how all this music actually ties together, he would play what he described as a “medieval tune from Brittany”, “Marry, Ageyn Hic Hev Donne Yt”: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “Marry, Ageyn Hic Hev Donne Yt”] We have said many times in this podcast that there is no first anything, but there’s a reason that Liege and Lief, Fairport Convention’s third album of 1969, and the album other than Unhalfbricking on which their reputation largely rests, was advertised with the slogan “The first (literally) British folk rock album ever”. Folk-rock, as the term had come to be known, and as it is still usually used today, had very little to do with traditional folk music. Rather, the records of bands like The Byrds or Simon and Garfunkel were essentially taking the sounds of British beat groups of the early sixties, particularly the Searchers, and applying those sounds to material by contemporary singer-songwriters. People like Paul Simon and Bob Dylan had come up through folk clubs, and their songs were called folk music because of that, but they weren’t what folk music had meant up to that point — songs that had been collected after being handed down through the folk process, changed by each individual singer, with no single identifiable author. They were authored songs by very idiosyncratic writers. But over their last few albums, Fairport Convention had done one or two tracks per album that weren’t like that, that were instead recordings of traditional folk songs, but arranged with rock instrumentation. They were not necessarily the first band to try traditional folk music with electric instruments — around the same time that Fairport started experimenting with the idea, so did an Irish band named Sweeney’s Men, who brought in a young electric guitarist named Henry McCullough briefly. But they do seem to have been the first to have fully embraced the idea. They had done so to an extent with “A Sailor’s Life” on Unhalfbricking, but now they were going to go much further: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Matty Groves” (from about 4:30)] There had been some doubt as to whether Fairport Convention would even continue to exist — by the time Unhalfbricking, their second album of the year, was released, they had been through the terrible car accident that had killed Martin Lamble, the band’s drummer, and Jeannie Franklyn, Richard Thompson’s girlfriend. Most of the rest of the band had been seriously injured, and they had made a conscious decision not to discuss the future of the band until they were all out of hospital. Ashley Hutchings was hospitalised the longest, and Simon Nicol, Richard Thompson, and Sandy Denny, the other three surviving members of the band, flew over to LA with their producer and manager, Joe Boyd, to recuperate there and get to know the American music scene. When they came back, the group all met up in the flat belonging to Denny’s boyfriend Trevor Lucas, and decided that they were going to continue the band. They made a few decisions then — they needed a new drummer, and as well as a drummer they wanted to get in Dave Swarbrick. Swarbrick had played violin on several tracks on Unhalfbricking as a session player, and they had all been thrilled to work with him. Swarbrick was one of the most experienced musicians on the British folk circuit. He had started out in the fifties playing guitar with Beryl Marriott’s Ceilidh Band before switching to fiddle, and in 1963, long before Fairport had formed, he had already appeared on TV with the Ian Campbell Folk Group, led by Ian Campbell, the father of Ali and Robin Campbell, later of UB40: [Excerpt: The Ian Campbell Folk Group, “Shanten Bells (medley on Hullaballoo!)”] He’d sung with Ewan MacColl and A.L. Lloyd: [Excerpt: A.L. Lloyd, “Tom’s Gone to Hilo” ] And he’d formed his hugely successful duo with Martin Carthy, releasing records like “Byker Hill” which are often considered among the best British folk music of all time: [Excerpt: Martin Carthy and Dave Swarbrick, “Byker Hill”] By the time Fairport had invited him to play on Unhalfbricking, Swarbrick had already performed on twenty albums as a core band member, plus dozens more EPs, singles, and odd tracks on compilations. They had no reason to think they could actually get him to join their band. But they had three advantages. The first was that Swarbrick was sick of the traditional folk scene at the time, saying later “I didn’t like seven-eighths of the people involved in it, and it was extremely opportune to leave. I was suddenly presented with the possibilities of exploring the dramatic content of the songs to the full.” The second was that he was hugely excited to be playing with Richard Thompson, who was one of the most innovative guitarists of his generation, and Martin Carthy remembers him raving about Thompson after their initial sessions. (Carthy himself was and is no slouch on the guitar of course, and there was even talk of getting him to join the band at this point, though they decided against it — much to the relief of rhythm guitarist Simon Nicol, who is a perfectly fine player himself but didn’t want to be outclassed by *two* of the best guitarists in Britain at the same time). And the third was that Joe Boyd told him that Fairport were doing so well — they had a single just about to hit the charts with “Si Tu Dois Partir” — that he would only have to play a dozen gigs with Fairport in order to retire. As it turned out, Swarbrick would play with the group for a decade, and would never retire — I saw him on his last tour in 2015, only eight months before he died. The drummer the group picked was also a far more experienced musician than any of the rest, though in a very different genre. Dave Mattacks had no knowledge at all of the kind of music they played, having previously been a player in dance bands. When asked by Hutchings if he wanted to join the band, Mattacks’ response was “I don’t know anything about the music. I don’t understand it… I can’t tell one tune from another, they all sound the same… but if you want me to join the group, fine, because I really like it. I’m enjoying myself musically.” Mattacks brought a new level of professionalism to the band, thanks to his different background. Nicol said of him later “He was dilligent, clean, used to taking three white shirts to a gig… The application he could bring to his playing was amazing. With us, you only played well when you were feeling well.” This distinction applied to his playing as well. Nicol would later describe the difference between Mattacks’ drumming and Lamble’s by saying “Martin’s strength was as an imaginative drummer. DM came in with a strongly developed sense of rhythm, through keeping a big band of drunken saxophone players in order. A great time-keeper.” With this new line-up and a new sense of purpose, the group did as many of their contemporaries were doing and “got their heads together in the country”. Joe Boyd rented the group a mansion, Farley House, in Farley Chamberlayne, Hampshire, and they stayed there together for three months. At the start, the group seem to have thought that they were going to make another record like Unhalfbricking, with some originals, some songs by American songwriters, and a few traditional songs. Even after their stay in Farley Chamberlayne, in fact, they recorded a few of the American songs they’d rehearsed at the start of the process, Richard Farina’s “Quiet Joys of Brotherhood” and Bob Dylan and Roger McGuinn’s “Ballad of Easy Rider”: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Ballad of Easy Rider”] Indeed, the whole idea of “getting our heads together in the country” (as the cliche quickly became in the late sixties as half of the bands in Britain went through much the same kind of process as Fairport were doing — but usually for reasons more to do with drug burnout or trend following than recovering from serious life-changing trauma) seems to have been inspired by Bob Dylan and the Band getting together in Big Pink. But very quickly they decided to follow the lead of Ashley Hutchings, who had had something of a Damascene conversion to the cause of traditional English folk music. They were listening mostly to Music From Big Pink by the Band, and to the first album by Sweeney’s Men: [Excerpt: Sweeney’s Men, “The Handsome Cabin Boy”] And they decided that they were going to make something that was as English as those records were North American and Irish (though in the event there were also a few Scottish songs included on the record). Hutchings in particular was becoming something of a scholar of traditional music, regularly visiting Cecil Sharp House and having long conversations with A.L. Lloyd, discovering versions of different traditional songs he’d never encountered before. This was both amusing and bemusing Sandy Denny, who had joined a rock group in part to get away from traditional music; but she was comfortable singing the material, and knew a lot of it and could make a lot of suggestions herself. Swarbrick obviously knew the repertoire intimately, and Nicol was amenable, while Mattacks was utterly clueless about the folk tradition at this point but knew this was the music he wanted to make. Thompson knew very little about traditional music, and of all the band members except Denny he was the one who has shown the least interest in the genre in his subsequent career — but as we heard at the beginning, showing the least interest in the genre is a relative thing, and while Thompson was not hugely familiar with the genre, he *was* able to work with it, and was also more than capable of writing songs that fit in with the genre. Of the eleven songs on the album, which was titled Liege and Lief (which means, roughly, Lord and Loyalty), there were no cover versions of singer-songwriters. Eight were traditional songs, and three were originals, all written in the style of traditional songs. The album opened with “Come All Ye”, an introduction written by Denny and Hutchings (the only time the two would ever write together): [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Come All Ye”] The other two originals were songs where Thompson had written new lyrics to traditional melodies. On “Crazy Man Michael”, Swarbrick had said to Thompson that the tune to which he had set his new words was weaker than the lyrics, to which Thompson had replied that if Swarbrick felt that way he should feel free to write a new melody. He did, and it became the first of the small number of Thompson/Swarbrick collaborations: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Crazy Man Michael”] Thompson and Swarbrick would become a brief songwriting team, but as much as anything else it was down to proximity — the two respected each other as musicians, but never got on very well. In 1981 Swarbrick would say “Richard and I never got on in the early days of FC… we thought we did, but we never did. We composed some bloody good songs together, but it was purely on a basis of “you write that and I’ll write this, and we’ll put it together.” But we never sat down and had real good chats.” The third original on the album, and by far the most affecting, is another song where Thompson put lyrics to a traditional tune. In this case he thought he was putting the lyrics to the tune of “Willie O'Winsbury”, but he was basing it on a recording by Sweeney’s Men. The problem was that Sweeney’s Men had accidentally sung the lyrics of “Willie O'Winsbury'” to the tune of a totally different song, “Fause Foodrage”: [Excerpt: Sweeney’s Men, “Willie O’Winsbury”] Thompson took that melody, and set to it lyrics about loss and separation. Thompson has never been one to discuss the meanings of his lyrics in any great detail, and in the case of this one has said “I really don't know what it means. This song came out of a dream, and I pretty much wrote it as I dreamt it (it was the sixties), and didn't spend very long analyzing it. So interpret as you wish – or replace with your own lines.” But in the context of the traffic accident that had killed his tailor girlfriend and a bandmate, and injured most of his other bandmates, the lyrics about lonely travellers, the winding road, bruised and beaten sons, saying goodbye, and never cutting cloth, seem fairly self-explanatory: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Farewell, Farewell”] The rest of the album, though, was taken up by traditional tunes. There was a long medley of four different fiddle reels; a version of “Reynardine” (a song about a seductive man — or is he a fox? Or perhaps both — which had been recorded by Swarbrick and Carthy on their most recent album); a 19th century song about a deserter saved from the firing squad by Prince Albert; and a long take on “Tam Lin”, one of the most famous pieces in the Scottish folk music canon, a song that has been adapted in different ways by everyone from the experimental noise band Current 93 to the dub poet Benjamin Zephaniah to the comics writer Grant Morrison: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Tam Lin”] And “Matty Groves”, a song about a man killing his cheating wife and her lover, which actually has a surprisingly similar story to that of “1921” from another great concept album from that year, the Who’s Tommy. “Matty Groves” became an excuse for long solos and shows of instrumental virtuosity: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Matty Groves”] The album was recorded in September 1969, after their return from their break in the country and a triumphal performance at the Royal Festival Hall, headlining over fellow Witchseason artists John and Beverly Martyn and Nick Drake. It became a classic of the traditional folk genre — arguably *the* classic of the traditional folk genre. In 2007 BBC Radio 2’s Folk Music Awards gave it an award for most influential folk album of all time, and while such things are hard to measure, I doubt there’s anyone with even the most cursory knowledge of British folk and folk-rock music who would not at least consider that a reasonable claim. But once again, by the time the album came out in November, the band had changed lineups yet again. There was a fundamental split in the band – on one side were Sandy Denny and Richard Thompson, whose stance was, roughly, that Liege and Lief was a great experiment and a fun thing to do once, but really the band had two first-rate songwriters in themselves, and that they should be concentrating on their own new material, not doing these old songs, good as they were. They wanted to take the form of the traditional songs and use that form for new material — they wanted to make British folk-rock, but with the emphasis on the rock side of things. Hutchings, on the other hand, was equally sure that he wanted to make traditional music and go further down the rabbit hole of antiquity. With the zeal of the convert he had gone in a couple of years from being the leader of a band who were labelled “the British Jefferson Airplane” to becoming a serious scholar of traditional folk music. Denny was tired of touring, as well — she wanted to spend more time at home with Trevor Lucas, who was sleeping with other women when she was away and making her insecure. When the time came for the group to go on a tour of Denmark, Denny decided she couldn’t make it, and Hutchings was jubilant — he decided he was going to get A.L. Lloyd into the band in her place and become a *real* folk group. Then Denny reconsidered, and Hutchings was crushed. He realised that while he had always been the leader, he wasn’t going to be able to lead the band any further in the traditionalist direction, and quit the group — but not before he was delegated by the other band members to fire Denny. Until the publication of Richard Thompson’s autobiography in 2022, every book on the group or its members said that Denny quit the band again, which was presumably a polite fiction that the band agreed, but according to Thompson “Before we flew home, we decided to fire Sandy. I don't remember who asked her to leave – it was probably Ashley, who usually did the dirty work. She was reportedly shocked that we would take that step. She may have been fragile beneath the confident facade, but she still knew her worth.” Thompson goes on to explain that the reasons for kicking her out were that “I suppose we felt that in her mind she had already left” and that “We were probably suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, though there wasn't a name for it back then.” They had considered inviting Trevor Lucas to join the band to make Denny more comfortable, but came to the (probably correct) conclusion that while he was someone they got on well with personally, he would be another big ego in a band that already had several, and that being around Denny and Lucas’ volatile relationship would, in Thompson’s phrasing, “have not always given one a feeling of peace and stability.” Hutchings originally decided he was going to join Sweeney’s Men, but that group were falling apart, and their first rehearsal with Hutchings would also be their last as a group, with only Hutchings and guitarist and mandolin player Terry Woods left in the band. They added Woods’ wife Gay, and another couple, Tim Hart and Maddy Prior, and formed a group called Steeleye Span, a name given them by Martin Carthy. That group, like Fairport, went to “get their heads together in the country” for three months and recorded an album of electric versions of traditional songs, Hark the Village Wait, on which Mattacks and another drummer, Gerry Conway, guested as Steeleye Span didn’t at the time have their own drummer: [Excerpt: Steeleye Span, “Blackleg Miner”] Steeleye Span would go on to have a moderately successful chart career in the seventies, but by that time most of the original lineup, including Hutchings, had left — Hutchings stayed with them for a few albums, then went on to form the first of a series of bands, all called the Albion Band or variations on that name, which continue to this day. And this is something that needs to be pointed out at this point — it is impossible to follow every single individual in this narrative as they move between bands. There is enough material in the history of the British folk-rock scene that someone could do a 500 Songs-style podcast just on that, and every time someone left Fairport, or Steeleye Span, or the Albion Band, or Matthews’ Southern Comfort, or any of the other bands we have mentioned or will mention, they would go off and form another band which would then fission, and some of its members would often join one of those other bands. There was a point in the mid-1970s where the Albion Band had two original members of Fairport Convention while Fairport Convention had none. So just in order to keep the narrative anything like wieldy, I’m going to keep the narrative concentrated on the two figures from Fairport — Sandy Denny and Richard Thompson — whose work outside the group has had the most influence on the wider world of rock music more broadly, and only deal with the other members when, as they often did, their careers intersected with those two. That doesn’t mean the other members are not themselves hugely important musicians, just that their importance has been primarily to the folk side of the folk-rock genre, and so somewhat outside the scope of this podcast. While Hutchings decided to form a band that would allow him to go deeper and deeper into traditional folk music, Sandy Denny’s next venture was rather different. For a long time she had been writing far more songs than she had ever played for her bandmates, like “Nothing More”, a song that many have suggested is about Thompson: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “Nothing More”] When Joe Boyd heard that Denny was leaving Fairport Convention, he was at first elated. Fairport’s records were being distributed by A&M in the US at that point, but Island Records was in the process of opening up a new US subsidiary which would then release all future Fairport product — *but*, as far as A&M were concerned, Sandy Denny *was* Fairport Convention. They were only interested in her. Boyd, on the other hand, loved Denny’s work intensely, but from his point of view *Richard Thompson* was Fairport Convention. If he could get Denny signed directly to A&M as a solo artist before Island started its US operations, Witchseason could get a huge advance on her first solo record, while Fairport could continue making records for Island — he’d have two lucrative acts, on different labels. Boyd went over and spoke to A&M and got an agreement in principle that they would give Denny a forty-thousand-dollar advance on her first solo album — twice what they were paying for Fairport albums. The problem was that Denny didn’t want to be a solo act. She wanted to be the lead singer of a band. She gave many reasons for this — the one she gave to many journalists was that she had seen a Judy Collins show and been impressed, but noticed that Collins’ band were definitely a “backing group”, and as she put it “But that's all they were – a backing group. I suddenly thought, If you're playing together on a stage you might as well be TOGETHER.” Most other people in her life, though, say that the main reason for her wanting to be in a band was her desire to be with her boyfriend, Trevor Lucas. Partly this was due to a genuine desire to spend more time with someone with whom she was very much in love, partly it was a fear that he would cheat on her if she was away from him for long periods of time, and part of it seems to have been Lucas’ dislike of being *too* overshadowed by his talented girlfriend — he didn’t mind acknowledging that she was a major talent, but he wanted to be thought of as at least a minor one. So instead of going solo, Denny formed Fotheringay, named after the song she had written for Fairport. This new band consisted at first of Denny on vocals and occasional piano, Lucas on vocals and rhythm guitar, and Lucas’ old Eclection bandmate Gerry Conway on drums. For a lead guitarist, they asked Richard Thompson who the best guitarist in Britain was, and he told them Albert Lee. Lee in turn brought in bass player Pat Donaldson, but this lineup of the band barely survived a fortnight. Lee *was* arguably the best guitarist in Britain, certainly a reasonable candidate if you could ever have a singular best (as indeed was Thompson himself), but he was the best *country* guitarist in Britain, and his style simply didn’t fit with Fotheringay’s folk-influenced songs. He was replaced by American guitarist Jerry Donahue, who was not anything like as proficient as Lee, but who was still very good, and fit the band’s style much better. The new group rehearsed together for a few weeks, did a quick tour, and then went into the recording studio to record their debut, self-titled, album. Joe Boyd produced the album, but admitted himself that he only paid attention to those songs he considered worthwhile — the album contained one song by Lucas, “The Ballad of Ned Kelly”, and two cover versions of American singer-songwriter material with Lucas singing lead. But everyone knew that the songs that actually *mattered* were Sandy Denny’s, and Boyd was far more interested in them, particularly the songs “The Sea” and “The Pond and the Stream”: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “The Pond and the Stream”] Fotheringay almost immediately hit financial problems, though. While other Witchseason acts were used to touring on the cheap, all packed together in the back of a Transit van with inexpensive equipment, Trevor Lucas had ambitions of being a rock star and wanted to put together a touring production to match, with expensive transport and equipment, including a speaker system that got nicknamed “Stonehenge” — but at the same time, Denny was unhappy being on the road, and didn’t play many gigs. As well as the band itself, the Fotheringay album also featured backing vocals from a couple of other people, including Denny’s friend Linda Peters. Peters was another singer from the folk clubs, and a good one, though less well-known than Denny — at this point she had only released a couple of singles, and those singles seemed to have been as much as anything else released as a novelty. The first of those, a version of Dylan’s “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere” had been released as by “Paul McNeill and Linda Peters”: [Excerpt: Paul McNeill and Linda Peters, “You Ain’t Goin’ Nowhere”] But their second single, a version of John D. Loudermilk’s “You’re Taking My Bag”, was released on the tiny Page One label, owned by Larry Page, and was released under the name “Paul and Linda”, clearly with the intent of confusing particularly gullible members of the record-buying public into thinking this was the McCartneys: [Excerpt: Paul and Linda, “You’re Taking My Bag”] Peters was though more financially successful than almost anyone else in this story, as she was making a great deal of money as a session singer. She actually did another session involving most of Fotheringay around this time. Witchseason had a number of excellent songwriters on its roster, and had had some success getting covers by people like Judy Collins, but Joe Boyd thought that they might possibly do better at getting cover versions if they were performed in less idiosyncratic arrangements. Donahue, Donaldson, and Conway went into the studio to record backing tracks, and vocals were added by Peters and another session singer, who according to some sources also provided piano. They cut songs by Mike Heron of the Incredible String Band: [Excerpt: Linda Peters, “You Get Brighter”] Ed Carter, formerly of The New Nadir but by this time firmly ensconced in the Beach Boys’ touring band where he would remain for the next quarter-century: [Excerpt: Linda Peters, “I Don’t Mind”] John and Beverly Martyn, and Nick Drake: [Excerpt: Elton John, “Saturday Sun”] There are different lineups of musicians credited for those sessions in different sources, but I tend to believe that it’s mostly Fotheringay for the simple reason that Donahue says it was him, Donaldson and Conway who talked Lucas and Denny into the mistake that destroyed Fotheringay because of these sessions. Fotheringay were in financial trouble already, spending far more money than they were bringing in, but their album made the top twenty and they were getting respect both from critics and from the public — in September, Sandy Denny was voted best British female singer by the readers of Melody Maker in their annual poll, which led to shocked headlines in the tabloids about how this “unknown” could have beaten such big names as Dusty Springfield and Cilla Black. Only a couple of weeks after that, they were due to headline at the Albert Hall. It should have been a triumph. But Donahue, Donaldson, and Conway had asked that singing pianist to be their support act. As Donahue said later “That was a terrible miscast. It was our fault. He asked if [he] could do it. Actually Pat, Gerry and I had to talk Sandy and Trevor into [it]… We'd done these demos and the way he was playing – he was a wonderful piano player – he was sensitive enough. We knew very little about his stage-show. We thought he'd be a really good opener for us.” Unfortunately, Elton John was rather *too* good. As Donahue continued “we had no idea what he had in mind, that he was going to do the most incredible rock & roll show ever. He pretty much blew us off the stage before we even got on the stage.” To make matters worse, Fotheringay’s set, which was mostly comprised of new material, was underrehearsed and sloppy, and from that point on no matter what they did people were counting the hours until the band split up. They struggled along for a while though, and started working on a second record, with Boyd again producing, though as Boyd later said “I probably shouldn't have been producing the record. My lack of respect for the group was clear, and couldn't have helped the atmosphere. We'd put out a record that had sold disappointingly, A&M was unhappy. Sandy's tracks on the first record are among the best things she ever did – the rest of it, who cares? And the artwork, Trevor's sister, was terrible. It would have been one thing if I'd been unhappy with it and it sold, and the group was working all the time, making money, but that wasn't the case … I knew what Sandy was capable of, and it was very upsetting to me.” The record would not be released for thirty-eight years: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “Wild Mountain Thyme”] Witchseason was going badly into debt. Given all the fissioning of bands that we’ve already been talking about, Boyd had been stretched thin — he produced sixteen albums in 1970, and almost all of them lost money for the company. And he was getting more and more disillusioned with the people he was producing. He loved Beverly Martyn’s work, but had little time for her abusive husband John, who was dominating her recording and life more and more and would soon become a solo artist while making her stay at home (and stealing her ideas without giving her songwriting credit). The Incredible String Band were great, but they had recently converted to Scientology, which Boyd found annoying, and while he was working with all sorts of exciting artists like Vashti Bunyan and Nico, he was finding himself less and less important to the artists he mentored. Fairport Convention were a good example of this. After Denny and Hutchings had left the group, they’d decided to carry on as an electric folk group, performing an equal mix of originals by the Swarbrick and Thompson songwriting team and arrangements of traditional songs. The group were now far enough away from the “British Jefferson Airplane” label that they decided they didn’t need a female vocalist — and more realistically, while they’d been able to replace Judy Dyble, nobody was going to replace Sandy Denny. Though it’s rather surprising when one considers Thompson’s subsequent career that nobody seems to have thought of bringing in Denny’s friend Linda Peters, who was dating Joe Boyd at the time (as Denny had been before she met Lucas) as Denny’s replacement. Instead, they decided that Swarbrick and Thompson were going to share the vocals between them. They did, though, need a bass player to replace Hutchings. Swarbrick wanted to bring in Dave Pegg, with whom he had played in the Ian Campbell Folk Group, but the other band members initially thought the idea was a bad one. At the time, while they respected Swarbrick as a musician, they didn’t think he fully understood rock and roll yet, and they thought the idea of getting in a folkie who had played double bass rather than an electric rock bassist ridiculous. But they auditioned him to mollify Swarbrick, and found that he was exactly what they needed. As Joe Boyd later said “All those bass lines were great, Ashley invented them all, but he never could play them that well. He thought of them, but he was technically not a terrific bass player. He was a very inventive, melodic, bass player, but not a very powerful one technically. But having had the part explained to him once, Pegg was playing it better than Ashley had ever played it… In some rock bands, I think, ultimately, the bands that sound great, you can generally trace it to the bass player… it was at that point they became a great band, when they had Pegg.” The new lineup of Fairport decided to move in together, and found a former pub called the Angel, into which all the band members moved, along with their partners and children (Thompson was the only one who was single at this point) and their roadies. The group lived together quite happily, and one gets the impression that this was the period when they were most comfortable with each other, even though by this point they were a disparate group with disparate tastes, in music as in everything else. Several people have said that the only music all the band members could agree they liked at this point was the first two albums by The Band. With the departure of Hutchings from the band, Swarbrick and Thompson, as the strongest personalities and soloists, became in effect the joint leaders of the group, and they became collaborators as songwriters, trying to write new songs that were inspired by traditional music. Thompson described the process as “let’s take one line of this reel and slow it down and move it up a minor third and see what that does to it; let’s take one line of this ballad and make a whole song out of it. Chopping up the tradition to find new things to do… like a collage.” Generally speaking, Swarbrick and Thompson would sit by the fire and Swarbrick would play a melody he’d been working on, the two would work on it for a while, and Thompson would then go away and write the lyrics. This is how the two came up with songs like the nine-minute “Sloth”, a highlight of the next album, Full House, and one that would remain in Fairport’s live set for much of their career: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Sloth”] “Sloth” was titled that way because Thompson and Swarbrick were working on two tunes, a slow one and a fast one, and they jokingly named them “Sloth” and “Fasth”, but the latter got renamed to “Walk Awhile”, while “Sloth” kept its working title. But by this point, Boyd and Thompson were having a lot of conflict in the studio. Boyd was never the most technical of producers — he was one of those producers whose job is to gently guide the artists in the studio and create a space for the music to flourish, rather than the Joe Meek type with an intimate technical knowledge of the studio — and as the artists he was working with gained confidence in their own work they felt they had less and less need of him. During the making of the Full House album, Thompson and Boyd, according to Boyd, clashed on everything — every time Boyd thought Thompson had done a good solo, Thompson would say to erase it and let him have another go, while every time Boyd thought Thompson could do better, Thompson would say that was the take to keep. One of their biggest clashes was over Thompson’s song “Poor Will and the Jolly Hangman”, which was originally intended for release on the album, and is included in current reissues of it: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Poor Will and the Jolly Hangman”] Thompson had written that song inspired by what he thought was the unjust treatment of Alex Bramham, the driver in Fairport’s fatal car crash, by the courts — Bramham had been given a prison sentence of a few months for dangerous driving, while the group members thought he had not been at fault. Boyd thought it was one of the best things recorded for the album, but Thompson wasn’t happy with his vocal — there was one note at the top of the melody that he couldn’t quite hit — and insisted it be kept off the record, even though that meant it would be a shorter album than normal. He did this at such a late stage that early copies of the album actually had the title printed on the sleeve, but then blacked out. He now says in his autobiography “I could have persevered, double-tracked the voice, warmed up for longer – anything. It was a good track, and the record was lacking without it. When the album was re-released, the track was restored with a more confident vocal, and it has stayed there ever since.” During the sessions for Full House the group also recorded one non-album single, Thompson and Swarbrick’s “Now Be Thankful”: [Excerpt, Fairport Convention, “Now Be Thankful”] The B-side to that was a medley of two traditional tunes plus a Swarbrick original, but was given the deliberately ridiculous title “Sir B. McKenzie’s Daughter’s Lament For The 77th Mounted Lancers Retreat From The Straits Of Loch Knombe, In The Year Of Our Lord 1727, On The Occasion Of The Announcement Of Her Marriage To The Laird Of Kinleakie”: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Sir B. McKenzie’s Daughter’s Lament For The 77th Mounted Lancers Retreat From The Straits Of Loch Knombe, In The Year Of Our Lord 1727, On The Occasion Of The Announcement Of Her Marriage To The Laird Of Kinleakie”] The B. McKenzie in the title was a reference to the comic-strip character Barry McKenzie, a stereotype drunk Australian created for Private Eye magazine by the comedian Barry Humphries (later to become better known for his Dame Edna Everage character) but the title was chosen for one reason only — to get into the Guinness Book of Records for the song with the longest title. Which they did, though they were later displaced by the industrial band Test Dept, and their song “Long Live British Democracy Which Flourishes and Is Constantly Perfected Under the Immaculate Guidance of the Great, Honourable, Generous and Correct Margaret Hilda Thatcher. She Is the Blue Sky in the Hearts of All Nations. Our People Pay Homage and Bow in Deep Respect and Gratitude to Her. The Milk of Human Kindness”. Full House got excellent reviews in the music press, with Rolling Stone saying “The music shows that England has finally gotten her own equivalent to The Band… By calling Fairport an English equivalent of the Band, I meant that they have soaked up enough of the tradition of their countryfolk that it begins to show all over, while they maintain their roots in rock.” Off the back of this, the group went on their first US tour, culminating in a series of shows at the Troubadour in LA, on the same bill as Rick Nelson, which were recorded and later released as a live album: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Sloth (live)”] The Troubadour was one of the hippest venues at the time, and over their residency there the group got seen by many celebrities, some of whom joined them on stage. The first was Linda Ronstadt, who initially demurred, saying she didn’t know any of their songs. On being told they knew all of hers, she joined in with a rendition of “Silver Threads and Golden Needles”. Thompson was later asked to join Ronstadt’s backing band, who would go on to become the Eagles, but he said later of this offer “I would have hated it. I’d have hated being on the road with four or five miserable Americans — they always seem miserable. And if you see them now, they still look miserable on stage — like they don’t want to be there and they don’t like each other.” The group were also joined on stage at the Troubadour on one memorable night by some former bandmates of Pegg’s. Before joining the Ian Campbell Folk Group, Pegg had played around the Birmingham beat scene, and had been in bands with John Bonham and Robert Plant, who turned up to the Troubadour with their Led Zeppelin bandmate Jimmy Page (reports differ on whether the fourth member of Zeppelin, John Paul Jones, also came along). They all got up on stage together and jammed on songs like “Hey Joe”, “Louie Louie”, and various old Elvis tunes. The show was recorded, and the tapes are apparently still in the possession of Joe Boyd, who has said he refuses to release them in case he is murdered by the ghost of Peter Grant. According to Thompson, that night ended in a three-way drinking contest between Pegg, Bonham, and Janis Joplin, and it’s testament to how strong the drinking culture is around Fairport and the British folk scene in general that Pegg outdrank both of them. According to Thompson, Bonham was found naked by a swimming pool two days later, having missed two gigs. For all their hard rock image, Led Zeppelin were admirers of a lot of the British folk and folk-rock scene, and a few months later Sandy Denny would become the only outside vocalist ever to appear on a Led Zeppelin record when she duetted with Plant on “The Battle of Evermore” on the group’s fourth album: [Excerpt: Led Zeppelin, “The Battle of Evermore”] Denny would never actually get paid for her appearance on one of the best-selling albums of all time. That was, incidentally, not the only session that Denny was involved in around this time — she also sang on the soundtrack to a soft porn film titled Swedish Fly Girls, whose soundtrack was produced by Manfred Mann: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “What Will I Do With Tomorrow?”] Shortly after Fairport’s trip to America, Joe Boyd decided he was giving up on Witchseason. The company was now losing money, and he was finding himself having to produce work for more and more acts as the various bands fissioned. The only ones he really cared about were Richard Thompson, who he was finding it more and more difficult to work with, Nick Drake, who wanted to do his next album with just an acoustic guitar anyway, Sandy Denny, who he felt was wasting her talents in Fotheringay, and Mike Heron of the Incredible String Band, who was more distant since his conversion to Scientology. Boyd did make some attempts to keep the company going. On a trip to Sweden, he negotiated an agreement with the manager and publisher of a Swedish band whose songs he’d found intriguing, the Hep Stars. Boyd was going to publish their songs in the UK, and in return that publisher, Stig Anderson, would get the rights to Witchseason’s catalogue in Scandinavia — a straight swap, with no money changing hands. But before Boyd could get round to signing the paperwork, he got a better offer from Mo Ostin of Warners — Ostin wanted Boyd to come over to LA and head up Warners’ new film music department. Boyd sold Witchseason to Island Records and moved to LA with his fiancee Linda Peters, spending the next few years working on music for films like Deliverance and A Clockwork Orange, as well as making his own documentary about Jimi Hendrix, and thus missed out on getting the UK publishing rights for ABBA, and all the income that would have brought him, for no money. And it was that decision that led to the breakup of Fotheringay. Just before Christmas 1970, Fotheringay were having a difficult session, recording the track “John the Gun”: [Excerpt: Fotheringay, “John the Gun”] Boyd got frustrated and kicked everyone out of the session, and went for a meal and several drinks with Denny. He kept insisting that she should dump the band and just go solo, and then something happened that the two of them would always describe differently. She asked him if he would continue to produce her records if she went solo, and he said he would. According to Boyd’s recollection of the events, he meant that he would fly back from California at some point to produce her records. According to Denny, he told her that if she went solo he would stay in Britain and not take the job in LA. This miscommunication was only discovered after Denny told the rest of Fotheringay after the Christmas break that she was splitting the band. Jerry Donahue has described that as the worst moment of his life, and Denny felt very guilty about breaking up a band with some of her closest friends in — and then when Boyd went over to the US anyway she felt a profound betrayal. Two days before Fotheringay’s final concert, in January 1971, Sandy Denny signed a solo deal with Island records, but her first solo album would not end up produced by Joe Boyd. Instead, The North Star Grassman and the Ravens was co-produced by Denny, John Wood — the engineer who had worked with Boyd on pretty much everything he’d produced, and Richard Thompson, who had just quit Fairport Convention, though he continued living with them at the Angel, at least until a truck crashed into the building in February 1971, destroying its entire front wall and forcing them to relocate. The songs chosen for The North Star Grassman and the Ravens reflected the kind of choices Denny would make on her future albums, and her eclectic taste in music. There was, of course, the obligatory Dylan cover, and the traditional folk ballad “Blackwaterside”, but there was also a cover version of Brenda Lee’s “Let’s Jump the Broomstick”: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Let’s Jump the Broomstick”] Most of the album, though, was made up of originals about various people in Denny’s life, like “Next Time Around”, about her ex-boyfriend Jackson C Frank: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Next Time Around”] The album made the top forty in the UK — Denny’s only solo album to do so — and led to her once again winning the “best female singer” award in Melody Maker’s readers’ poll that year — the male singer award was won by Rod Stewart. Both Stewart and Denny appeared the next year on the London Symphony Orchestra’s all-star version of The Who’s Tommy, which had originally been intended as a vehicle for Stewart before Roger Daltrey got involved. Stewart’s role was reduced to a single song, “Pinball Wizard”, while Denny sang on “It’s a Boy”: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “It’s a Boy”] While Fotheringay had split up, all the band members play on The North Star Grassman and the Ravens. Guitarists Donahue and Lucas only play on a couple of the tracks, with Richard Thompson playing most of the guitar on the record. But Fotheringay’s rhythm section of Pat Donaldson and Gerry Conway play on almost every track. Another musician on the album, Ian Whiteman, would possibly have a profound effect on the future direction of Richard Thompson’s career and life. Whiteman was the former keyboard player for the mod band The Action, having joined them just before they became the blues-rock band Mighty Baby. But Mighty Baby had split up when all of the band except the lead singer had converted to Islam. Richard Thompson was on his own spiritual journey at this point, and became a Sufi – the same branch of Islam as Whiteman – soon after the session, though Thompson has said that his conversion was independent of Whiteman’s. The two did become very close and work together a lot in the mid-seventies though. Thompson had supposedly left Fairport because he was writing material that wasn’t suited to the band, but he spent more than a year after quitting the group working on sessions rather than doing anything with his own material, and these sessions tended to involve the same core group of musicians. One of the more unusual was a folk-rock supergroup called The Bunch, put together by Trevor Lucas. Richard Branson had recently bought a recording studio, and wanted a band to test it out before opening it up for commercial customers, so with this free studio time Lucas decided to record a set of fifties rock and roll covers. He gathered together Thompson, Denny, Whiteman, Ashley Hutchings, Dave Mattacks, Pat Donaldson, Gerry Conway, pianist Tony Cox, the horn section that would later form the core of the Average White Band, and Linda Peters, who had now split up with Joe Boyd and returned to the UK, and who had started dating Thompson. They recorded an album of covers of songs by Jerry Lee Lewis, the Everly Brothers, Johnny Otis and others: [Excerpt: The Bunch, “Willie and the Hand Jive”] The early seventies was a hugely productive time for this group of musicians, as they all continued playing on each other’s projects. One notable album was No Roses by Shirley Collins, which featured Thompson, Mattacks, Whiteman, Simon Nicol, Lal and Mike Waterson, and Ashley Hutchings, who was at that point married to Collins, as well as some more unusual musicians like the free jazz saxophonist Lol Coxhill: [Excerpt: Shirley Collins and the Albion Country Band, “Claudy Banks”] Collins was at the time the most respected female singer in British traditional music, and already had a substantial career including a series of important records made with her sister Dolly, work with guitarists like Davey Graham, and time spent in the 1950s collecting folk songs in the Southern US with her then partner Alan Lomax – according to Collins she did much of the actual work, but Lomax only mentioned her in a single sentence in his book on this work. Some of the same group of musicians went on to work on an album of traditional Morris dancing tunes, titled Morris On, credited to “Ashley Hutchings, Richard Thompson, Dave Mattacks, John Kirkpatrick and Barry Dransfield”, with Collins singing lead on two tracks: [Excerpt: Ashley Hutchings, Richard Thompson, Dave Mattacks, John Kirkpatrick and Barry Dransfield with Shirley Collins, “The Willow Tree”] Thompson thought that that album was the best of the various side projects he was involved in at the time, comparing it favourably to Rock On, which he thought was rather slight, saying later “Conceptually, Fairport, Ashley and myself and Sandy were developing a more fragile style of music that nobody else was particularly interested in, a British Folk Rock idea that had a logical development to it, although we all presented it our own way. Morris On was rather more true to what we were doing. Rock On was rather a retro step. I'm not sure it was lasting enough as a record but Sandy did sing really well on the Buddy Holly songs.” Hutchings used the musicians on No Roses and Morris On as the basis for his band the Albion Band, which continues to this day. Simon Nicol and Dave Mattacks both quit Fairport to join the Albion Band, though Mattacks soon returned. Nicol would not return to Fairport for several years, though, and for a long period in the mid-seventies Fairport Convention had no original members. Unfortunately, while Collins was involved in the Albion Band early on, she and Hutchings ended up divorcing, and the stress from the divorce led to Collins developing spasmodic dysphonia, a stress-related illness which makes it impossible for the sufferer to sing. She did eventually regain her vocal ability, but between 1978 and 2016 she was unable to perform at all, and lost decades of her career. Richard Thompson occasionally performed with the Albion Band early on, but he was getting stretched a little thin with all these sessions. Linda Peters said later of him “When I came back from America, he was working in Sandy’s band, and doing sessions by the score. Always with Pat Donaldson and Dave Mattacks. Richard would turn up with his guitar, one day he went along to do a session with one of those folkie lady singers — and there were Pat and DM. They all cracked. Richard smashed his amp and said “Right! No more sessions!” In 1972 he got round to releasing his first solo album, Henry the Human Fly, which featured guest appearances by Linda Peters and Sandy Denny among others: [Excerpt: Richard Thompson, “The Angels Took My Racehorse Away”] Unfortunately, while that album has later become regarded as one of the classics of its genre, at the time it was absolutely slated by the music press. The review in Melody Maker, for example, read in part “Some of Richard Thompson’s ideas sound great – which is really the saving grace of this album, because most of the music doesn’t. The tragedy is that Thompson’s “British rock music” is such an unconvincing concoction… Even the songs that do integrate rock and traditional styles of electric guitar rhythms and accordion and fiddle decoration – and also include explicit, meaningful lyrics are marred by bottle-up vocals, uninspiring guitar phrases and a general lack of conviction in performance.” Henry the Human Fly was released in the US by Warners, who had a reciprocal licensing deal with Island (and for whom Joe Boyd was working at the time, which may have had something to do with that) but according to Thompson it became the lowest-selling record that Warners ever put out (though I’ve also seen that claim made about Van Dyke Parks’ Song Cycle, another album that has later been rediscovered). Thompson was hugely depressed by this reaction, and blamed his own singing. Happily, though, by this point he and Linda had become a couple — they would marry in 1972 — and they started playing folk clubs as a duo, or sometimes in a trio with Simon Nicol. Thompson was also playing with Sandy Denny’s backing band at this point, and played on every track on her second solo album, Sandy. This album was meant to be her big commercial breakthrough, with a glamorous cover photo by David Bailey, and with a more American sound, including steel guitar by Sneaky Pete Kleinow of the Flying Burrito Brothers (whose overdubs were supervised in LA by Joe Boyd): [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Tomorrow is a Long Time”] The album was given a big marketing push by Island, and “Listen, Listen” was made single of the week on the Radio 1 Breakfast show: [Excerpt: Sandy Denny, “Listen, Listen”] But it did even worse than the previous album, sending her into something of a depression. Linda Thompson (as the former Linda Peters now was) said of this period “After the Sandy album, it got her down that her popularity didn't suddenly increase in leaps and bounds, and that was the start of her really fretting about the way her career was going. Things only escalated after that. People like me or Martin Carthy or Norma Waterson would think, ‘What are you on about? This is folk music.'” After Sandy’s release, Denny realised she could no longer afford to tour with a band, and so went back to performing just acoustically or on piano. The only new music to be released by either of these ex-members of Fairport Convention in 1973 was, oddly, on an album by the band they were no longer members of. After Thompson had left Fairport, the group had managed to release two whole albums with the same lineup — Swarbrick, Nicol, Pegg, and Mattacks. But then Nicol and Mattacks had both quit the band to join the Albion Band with their former bandmate Ashley Hutchings, leading to a situation where the Albion Band had two original members of Fairport plus their longtime drummer while Fairport Convention itself had no original members and was down to just Swarbrick and Pegg. Needing to fulfil their contracts, they then recruited three former members of Fotheringay — Lucas on vocals and rhythm guitar, Donahue on lead guitar, and Conway on drums. Conway was only a session player at the time, and Mattacks soon returned to the band, but Lucas and Donahue became full-time members. This new lineup of Fairport Convention released two albums in 1973, widely regarded as the group’s most inconsistent records, and on the title track of the first, “Rosie”, Richard Thompson guested on guitar, with Sandy Denny and Linda Thompson on backing vocals: [Excerpt: Fairport Convention, “Rosie”] Neither Sandy Denny nor Richard Thompson released a record themselves in 1973, but in neither case was this through the artists’ choice. The record industry was changing in the early 1970s, as we’ll see in later episodes, and was less inclined to throw good money after bad in the pursuit of art. Island Records prided itself on being a home for great artists, but it was still a business, and needed to make money. We’ll talk about the OPEC oil crisis and its effect on the music industry much more when the podcast gets to 1973, but in brief, the production of oil by the US peaked in 1970 and started to decrease, leading to them importing more and more oil from the Middle East. As a result of this, oil prices rose slowly between 1971 and 1973, then very quickly towards the end of 1973 as a result of the Arab-Israeli conflict that year. As vinyl is made of oil, suddenly producing records became much more expensive, and in this period a lot of labels decided not to release already-completed albums, until what they hoped would be a brief period of shortages passed. Both Denny and Thompson recorded albums at this point that got put to one side by Island. In the case of Thompson, it was the first album by Richard and Linda as a duo, I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight: [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight”] Today, I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight is widely regarded as one of the greatest albums of all time, and as one of the two masterpieces that bookended Richard and Linda’s career as a duo and their marriage. But when they recorded the album, full of Richard’s dark songs, it was the opposite of commercial. Even a song that’s more or less a boy-girl song, like “Has He Got a Friend for Me?” has lyrics like “He wouldn’t notice me passing by/I could be in the gutter, or dangling down from a tree” [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “Has He got a Friend For Me?”] While something like “The Calvary Cross” is oblique and haunted, and seems to cast a pall over the entire album: [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “The Calvary Cross”] The album itself had been cheap to make — it had been recorded in only a week, with Thompson bringing in musicians he knew well and had worked with a lot previously to cut the tracks as-live in only a handful of takes — but Island didn’t think it was worth releasing. The record stayed on the shelf for nearly a year after recording, until Island got a new head of A&R, Richard Williams. Williams said of the album’s release “Muff Winwood had been doing A&R, but he was more interested in production… I had a conversation with Muff as soon as I got there, and he said there are a few hangovers, some outstanding problems. And one of them was Richard Thompson. He said there’s this album we gave him the money to make — which was I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight — and nobody’s very interested in it. Henry the Human Fly had been a bit of a commercial disappointment, and although Island was altruistic and independent and known for only recording good stuff, success was important… Either a record had to do well or somebody had to believe in it a lot. And it seemed as if neither of those things were true at that point of Richard.” Williams, though, was hugely impressed when he listened to the album. He compared Richard Thompson’s guitar playing to John Coltrane’s sax, and called Thompson “the folk poet of the rainy streets”, but also said “Linda brightened it, made it more commercial. and I thought that “Bright Lights” itself seemed a really commercial song.” The rest of the management at Island got caught up in Williams’ enthusiasm, and even decided to release the title track as a single: [Excerpt: Richard and Linda Thompson, “I Want to See the Bright Lights Tonight”] Neither single nor album charted — indeed it would not be until 1991 that Richard Thompson would make a record that made the top forty in the UK — but the album got enough critical respect that Richard and Linda released two albums the year after. The first of these, Hokey Pokey, is a much more upbeat record than their previous one — Richard Thompson has called it “quite a music-hall influenced record” and cited the influence of George Formby and Harry Lauder. For once, the claim of music hall influence is audible in the music. Usually when a British musician is claimed to have a music ha