Podcasts about Treasury

Veronique de Rugy of the Mercatus Center discusses Kevin Warsh's potential Fed chairmanship, highlighting his focus on price stability and a proposed accord to reduce Treasury pressure on the central bank.1903

In a newsmaking interview, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discusses the government's plan to incentivize whistleblower tips on fraud, money laundering, and sanctions violations following the Trump administration's focus on federally funded social welfare programs in Minnesota. Sec. Bessent also shares his expectation that the Senate confirmation of Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh to proceed, despite Sen. Thom Tillis's effort to block it. Plus, at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Joe Kernen sits down with AT&T Chairman & CEO John Stankey to discuss the infrastructure of the future internet, including fiber optics and satellites. Sec. Scott Bessent - 04:33John Stankey - 33:17 In this episode:Scott Bessent, @SecScottBessentJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkCameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Eric Criscuolo, NYSE Market Strategist, recaps a week where AI‑driven fears triggered sharp selloffs across software, finance, logistics, and data‑heavy industries. Despite the pressure, broader market rotations held up as the Dow pushed past 50,000 and mid‑ and small‑cap indexes outperformed beneath the surface. Defensive sectors took the lead as the S&P slipped back below key moving averages. Treasury yields swung on mixed macro signals while metals cooled, crypto wavered, and oil's rally stalled. With CPI, major earnings, and key economic data ahead, markets enter the holiday‑shortened week navigating renewed volatility and rising AI uncertainty.

US equity futures are pointing modestly lower, with Asian markets sharply weaker and European equities trading mixed. AI-related disruption fears remained the dominant market theme. Investors rotated further into defensive sectors as volatility picked up and the VIX moved above 20. Economic data showed weekly jobless claims broadly in line, continuing claims slightly higher, and existing home sales falling sharply month over month despite some improvement in affordability. Treasury auctions drew strong demand at the long end following earlier mixed results. Market attention now turns to January CPI, with expectations centered on a modest monthly increase in both headline and core inflation. Market has pared back Fed rate cut expectations to July move versus June.Companies Mentioned: Humana, Sumitomo Forestry, Tri Pointe Homes, OpenAI, DeepSeek

We're starting today's show with a discussion on retirement age and would as always, love to hear your thoughts. The issue is back in the news thanks to the Chief Executive of Milford Investments saying New Zealanders will have to work into their 70s if the country wants to afford superannuation. The comments came as part of a wider debate being held at the New Zealand Economic Forum at Waikato University this week. Treasury has previously signaled that it's on track to become unaffordable unless the retirement age rises to around 72. But would any Government be up to changing the official retirement age? To discuss, I'm joined by author of The Kaka substack - Bernard Hickey

The truth of the matter is, the country is nuts about true-crime dramas and Stigall contends that's what the media is subjecting us to as opposed to ACTUAL scandal and success in Washington and beyond. Stigall calls in one of his favorite legal minds today to discuss the public food fight between Democrats and AG Pam Bondi yesterday. Mark Weaver is a prosecutor - of sex crimes, as a matter of fact. So what's REAL versus fiction in the Epstein story? Today unpacks it from an unemotional and sincere question-filled point of view. Have you heard about TrumpRX.com? May prescriptions are coming down in price thanks to the negotiations of President Trump, RFK Jr, and some pharmaceutical companies. Hear how it will impact you. Plus, Treasury's Joe Lavorgna return to discuss new jobs, cheaper mortgages and rents, Trump accounts, and will tax season change American's economic mood? -For more info visit the official website: https://chrisstigall.comInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/chrisstigallshow/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChrisStigallFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/chris.stigall/Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/StigallPodListen on Apple Podcasts: https://bit.ly/StigallShow See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global markets are leaning into growth. Following the upside surprise in U.S. non-farm payrolls — with 130,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.3% — investors are focusing on economic resilience rather than fading hopes of aggressive rate cuts. MSCI's All-World index is trading near record highs, while South Korea's Kospi has crossed 5,500 for the first time. Attention now turns to initial jobless claims and the upcoming CPI print, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's June decision. CME FedWatch odds for a rate hold have climbed to 40%. In the UK, GDP expanded just 0.1% in Q4, while industrial production fell unexpectedly. Meanwhile, Nuveen has agreed to acquire asset manager Schroders for $13.5 billion. In digital assets, crypto markets remain steady despite Blockfills halting withdrawals. BlackRock is deepening its move into tokenized finance, bringing its Treasury-backed BUIDL token to Uniswap through Securitize. Court drama surrounding FTX has resurfaced, and Kraken has replaced its CFO ahead of its public listing. A busy macro backdrop with institutional crypto developments accelerating beneath the surface.

Is commercial real estate setting up for a comeback in 2026? In this episode of The Real Wealth Show, Kathy Fettke sits down with Henry Chin, Global Head of Research at CBRE, to break down the latest outlook for U.S. and global property markets. Despite ongoing economic uncertainty, investor demand for U.S. commercial real estate is strengthening. Henry shares why multifamily remains the top asset class, how Sunbelt oversupply compares to gateway city recovery, what "flight to quality" really means, and why office and retail could become surprising contrarian opportunities. He also explains what investors should expect from cap rates, Treasury yields, and potential Fed rate cuts in 2026. If you're underwriting deals or deciding when to buy or sell, this episode offers data-driven insights to help you invest smarter in the year ahead.

Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber kicked off the hour with a look at inflation - including a new alternative data source cited by the Treasury - ahead of tomorrow's CPI report. Citi Wealth's CIO joined the team with more on what it all could mean for markets, and possible rate cuts ahead... Before the team did a deep-dive on software: spanning the names worth buying here, according to a longtime veteran in the space (who's also in investor in Anthropic) - and what the AI buildout means for private credit as concerns grow over possible contagion risks... Goldman's Head of Corporate Credit is bullish as ever here. Plus: more on the day's biggest earnings reports - spanning exclusive commentary from the CFO of McDonalds, to what the street's saying about Cisco's numbers (as shares look for their worst day since April of last year).  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kevin Warsh has officially been nominated to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chairman and the big question now is what this means for interest rates, mortgage rates, housing, and the broader economy.In this episode, we cut through the political noise and focus on what actually matters for borrowers and investors.I break down who Kevin Warsh is, his background at the Federal Reserve, and whether he is likely to lean more hawkish or dovish. More importantly, we discuss why the bond market reaction matters more than headlines and how the 10 year Treasury ultimately drives mortgage rates.We also cover:How jobs, inflation, and consumer spending will determine future rate cutsWhy small businesses are struggling despite strong economic dataThe difference between Fed rate cuts and mortgage rate movementsOther policy levers that could bring mortgage rates down beyond the FedWhy affordability not politics is the real issue heading into 2026If you are a homebuyer, investor, homeowner, or self employed borrower, understanding how this leadership transition could impact rates is critical. Mortgage markets respond to data, confidence, and forward guidance not just announcements.As we move deeper into 2026, the real drivers will be the labor market, consumer strength, inflation trends, and bond market belief. That is where the focus should be.

Henry Chin, global head of research at CBRE, joined the latest episode of the REIT Report podcast to review key themes for commercial real estate investing in 2026. Chin highlighted strong investor sentiment towards the sector, an expected increase in investment activity, the dynamics of supply and demand across various property types, and more.Chin said investors are expected to deploy capital into U.S. real estate markets this year on the back of recovering fundamentals and interest rates trending lower. As a result, investment volume is expected to increase by about 16%, he noted.Additional observations during the interview included:Total returns this year will be income-driven rather than appreciation-driven. “We are only going to see some strong capital value gain when the 10-year Treasury is trending down below 4%, but as of now, most of the total returns are driven by the income growth.”

*Sussan v Angus. *Chalmers v Treasury. *School shooting latest.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

"Shipping in 2026 is going to get darker." - Michelle Wiese Bockmann, Senior Maritime Intelligence Analyst, Windward  Right now, somewhere between 900 and 2,000 aging oil tankers are operating in the shadows. They are carrying sanctioned crude from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. This so-called "shadow fleet" often sails under false flags, spoofs its locations, turns off monitoring systems, transfers their cargo at sea, and sometimes operates without insurance. These dangerous vessels are increasingly being boarded, seized, escorted into port, and tied up in court, but enforcement at sea is messy, expensive, and legally complex.  One company… GMS… thinks they have an answer. They believe they can scrap about 100 of these seized, sanctioned ships annually - if (and it is a big IF) they are given permission by the U.S. Treasury to acquire them. In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner explores three interconnected questions: What is actually being done to get shadow fleet tankers off the water? What happens to the ships — and the oil, and the crew — after they are seized? And what are the second- and third-order effects for global shipping markets, risk, and supply chains? Links: Kelly Barner on LinkedIn Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter  Art of Supply on AOP Subscribe to This Week in Procurement  

& Treasury gives Stormont £400m to ensure it can balance the books - but needs repaid.

*Sussan v Angus. *Chalmers v Treasury. *School shooting latest.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Guest: Joseph Sternberg. Sternberg assesses potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, highlighting his "realist" approach to monetary policy and desire to reduce the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.1880 TREASURY

Talking Real Money opens with a stark illustration of why Bitcoin fails as a usable currency, showing how volatility can destroy real-life budgets overnight. Don and Tom compare crypto to historic speculative bubbles, argue that stability—not hype—is the core function of money, and dismantle the “store of value” narrative. The show then shifts to practical listener calls covering CD ladders, Treasury yields, retirement readiness, estate planning, and early-retirement balance. Throughout, they emphasize boring, diversified, evidence-based investing over speculation, reminding listeners that long-term financial security comes from discipline, planning, and emotional restraint—not chasing the next hot trend. 0:04 Bitcoin paycheck scenario and real-world income collapse 1:04 Currency volatility vs. household budgeting reality 2:22 Bitcoin's 45% drop and “currency vs. speculation” argument 3:24 Hyperinflation examples and why stability matters 4:03 “Greater fool” theory and vanishing crypto hype 4:47 Why Bitcoin fails as a functional currency 5:59 Tulip mania and historical bubbles comparison 6:59 Tangible assets vs. pure speculation 7:39 “At least you can live in a house” argument 8:26 Michael Saylor, HODL culture, and empty promises 9:30 NFT collapse and Beeple example 10:11 Crypto returns vs. real assets 11:14 Listener question: CDs vs. Treasuries 12:22 Current CD rates and Bankrate reference 13:56 Risks of long-term bonds and rate changes 15:32 Don's real CD ladder example 16:37 Fixed income diversification strategy 18:35 Hot money leaving crypto for prediction markets 19:45 Generational blind spots and bubble psychology 21:08 Retirement planning call: housing proceeds and savings 23:57 Social Security timing and cash-flow planning 25:41 Importance of fee-only fiduciary planning 27:32 Vernita Toll Bridge digression (classic TRM) 30:33 Estate planning: wills vs. trusts 33:49 RetireMeet promotion and resources 35:43 FIRE listener call: saving vs. living balance 38:58 Permission to spend responsibly Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happens when AI starts cutting audit bills? Blake and David unpack KPMG's push for a 14% fee cut from Grant Thornton, Botkeeper's shutdown versus Pilot's “AI accountant,” and how agents like Claude are already doing real client work. You'll hear why entry-level roles are vanishing, what tax pros need to know about the IRS's new e-payment push and Tax Pro Account upgrades, plus a fun detour: DJ John Summit's Tax Day album.SponsorsUNC - http://accountingpodcast.promo/uncOnPay - http://accountingpodcast.promo/onpayCloud Accountant Staffing - http://accountingpodcast.promo/casChapters(00:00) - KPMG's AI-Driven Audit Fee Reduction (00:28) - Welcome to the Accounting Podcast (00:53) - Blake's First Time at the Waste Management Open (02:00) - John Summit: From Accountant to DJ Superstar (04:39) - John Summit's Accounting-Themed Album (09:44) - Earmark CPE: Easy CPE Credits for Accountants (12:34) - The Rise and Fall of AI Bookkeeping Startups (24:48) - Pilot's Autonomous AI Accountant (26:50) - Partnering with Accounting Firms (29:59) - AI in Bookkeeping and Accounting (33:33) - Impact of AI on Accounting Jobs (40:27) - Trump's $10 Billion Lawsuit Against the IRS (44:40) - IRS Updates and Tax Pro Accounts (49:53) - KPMG's AI Acquisition (51:14) - Airlines Save Millions with Weight Loss Drugs (52:58) - Conclusion and CPE Information  Show NotesKPMG pressed its auditor to pass on AI cost savings https://www.irishtimes.com/business/2026/02/06/kpmg-pressed-its-auditor-to-pass-on-ai-cost-savings/Botkeeper is Closing Its Doors https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/02/09/botkeeper-is-closing-its-doors/177677/Botkeeper shuts down https://www.accountingtoday.com/news/botkeeper-shuts-downAnthropic AI Tool Sparks Selloff From Software to Broader Market https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-03/legal-software-stocks-plunge-as-anthropic-releases-new-ai-toolAI fears pummel software stocks: Is it 'illogical' panic or a SaaS apocalypse? https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/06/ai-anthropic-tools-saas-software-stocks-selloff.htmlPilot launches fully autonomous AI bookkeeper https://www.accountingtoday.com/news/pilot-launches-fully-autonomous-ai-bookkeeperPilot Rolls Out Fully Autonomous AI Accountant https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/02/04/pilot-rolls-out-fully-autonomous-ai-accountant/177453/Pilot Unveils AI Accountant https://pilot.com/blog/pilot-unveils-ai-accountant-a-major-leap-toward-artificial-general-intelligence-in-accountingStartup Accrual Officially Launches with $75M in Funding to Bring AI-Native Automation to Accountinghttps://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/02/05/startup-accrual-officially-launches-with-75m-in-funding-to-bring-ai-native-automation-to-accounting/177600/Tax platform Accrual launches with AI automation support for all forms https://www.accountingtoday.com/news/tax-platform-accrual-launches-with-ai-automation-support-for-all-formsAccrual Launches with $75 Million to Bring AI-Native Automation to Accountinghttps://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260205968515/en/Accrual-Launches-with-$75-Million-to-Bring-AI-Native-Automation-to-AccountingGoldman Sachs leads $75 million funding round for Fieldguide, an AI-native accounting and audit platformhttps://fortune.com/2026/02/02/goldman-sachs-fieldguide-accounting-cpa-ai-software-platform-venture-capital/Fieldguide Raises $75M Series C Round to Boost Audit and Advisory Firms' Agentic AI Capabilitieshttps://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/02/02/fieldguide-raises-75m-series-c-round-to-boost-audit-and-advisory-firms-agentic-ai-capabilities/177323/Fieldguide Raises $75M Series C from Goldman Sachs to Help Audit and Advisory Firms Grow with Agentic AIhttps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/02/04/3232133/0/en/Pilot-Unveils-AI-Accountant-A-Major-Leap-Toward-Artificial-General-Intelligence-in-Accounting.htmlTrump, two sons, Trump Org sue IRS, Treasury for $10 billion over tax records leak https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/29/trump-sues-irs-and-treasury-for-10-billion-over-leak-of-tax-records.htmlTrump sues IRS and Treasury Department for $10 billion over leaked tax records https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-sues-irs-treasury-department-10-billion-leaked-tax-records-rcna256626Trump Sues Treasury and IRS for $10 Billion Over Tax Data Leak https://www.taxnotes.com/featured-news/trump-sues-treasury-and-irs-10-billion-over-tax-data-leak/2026/01/30/7txmzKPMG Brings Aboard AI Development Platform PrivateBlok https://www.cpapracticeadvisor.com/2026/02/09/kpmg-adds-ai-development-platform-privateblok/177729/KPMG acquires PrivateBlok, team will support AI developments https://www.accountingtoday.com/news/kpmg-acquires-privateblok-team-will-support-ai-developmentsKPMG Bolsters AI Product Development Function...

In this Feb 11, 2026 Crypto Town Hall, hosts and guests discuss extreme market fear, dismiss SBF's jailhouse bid for a new trial as futile, and slam big banks' lobbying to kill stablecoin yield via the Clarity Act as pure protectionism. They highlight stablecoins' potential to drive U.S. Treasury demand, BlackRock's DeFi push (including Uniswap), the collapse of hype-driven VC tokens, real-world asset tokenization opportunities, and persistent legal uncertainty for utility tokens without lasting regulatory clarity. The episode closes with AI's rapid coding/automation advances, its disruption of SaaS and DeFi, emerging security/legal risks from AI agents, and why tokenized money (especially stablecoins) will likely power future autonomous systems.

The Fed quietly restarted balance sheet expansion. History shows this ends badly. Here's what it means for your savings and how to protect your wealth.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310

In this episode of RattlerGator Report, JB White opens with the cultural fallout from the Super Bowl halftime show, breaking down the ratings collapse, media backlash, and what he sees as a widening disconnect between institutional messaging and the American public. He examines the reaction cycle, the outrage economy, and why legacy platforms continue to miscalculate cultural momentum. The conversation then expands into global finance and geopolitical positioning, including IMF leverage, Treasury maneuvering, tariff strategy, tech infrastructure, and what JB frames as a long-built strategic “scaffolding” taking shape. He connects Bitcoin volatility, UK censorship developments, and shifting power centers into a broader narrative of structural realignment, arguing that recent moves across finance, media, and governance point to coordinated counterpressure against entrenched global systems.

Markets are stuck in the same rhythm: rally, pull back, test support, and bounce again. After Tuesday's dip, futures are mildly higher this morning—but the bigger story is consolidation. Under the surface, leadership is rotating: Energy, Financials, and Value have held the upper hand, while Growth has started to perk up. That internal rotation can keep the index "flat" even as specific sectors trend. The setup still leans toward an upside breakout, but the market hasn't shown the momentum needed to follow through—yet. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields have been sliding for several sessions. A bounce back toward 4% wouldn't be surprising given where inflation sits and what yields are "supposed" to reflect. If incoming inflation or employment data disappoints, yields could push lower again. Finally, volatility is quietly grinding higher as turnover and leadership churn continue. No fear-spike yet—but this is often the type of prelude we see before volatility eventually makes a sharper move. Manage risk, stay disciplined, and let the market prove the breakout. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 2/21/26: https://streamyard.com/watch/Wq3Yvn9ny5GV --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/8iyhck2LBpY --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #SectorRotation #TreasuryYields #Volatility

Dante Q. Allen was appointed by Governor Newsom to his new role of Deputy Director of the California Department of Rehabilitation Services on April 18, 2025 and sworn in by Director Kim Rutledge on May 5, 2025 Congratulations Danté!The U.S. Senate approved the nomination of Danté Quintin Allen to lead the U.S. Department of Education's Rehabilitative Services Administration (RSA). Until his confirmation, Allen had been serving as executive director for CalABLE, California's ABLE Act savings and investment program for people with disabilities. Under his five-year leadership, CalABLE was the fastest growing ABLE Act program in the country. Prior to leading CalABLE, Allen was a communications leader for organizations including Kaiser Permanente and the California Department of Public Health's Office of Health Equity. A fulltime wheelchair user, Allen is a well-known advocate for disability rights and equity. Upon his confirmation, Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona remarked, “I look forward to working together with Mr. Allen to provide individuals with disabilities and all students with equitable access to the education and training they need to find good-paying jobs; achieve economic security; and lead healthy, independent lives.”© 2026 Building Abundant Success!!© 2026 All Rights ReservedJoin Me on ~ iHeart Media @ https://tinyurl.com/iHeartBASJoin me on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/yxuy23baAmazon Music ~ https://tinyurl.com/AmzBASAudacy:  https://tinyurl.com/BASAud

Sam is an experienced transformational leader and adviser with 25 years experience in politics, government, policy-making, strategy, sustainability, financial services and running his own business.Sam has undertaken some big roles in politics and Government. He was Sir Keir Starmer's Chief of Staff for the turnaround of the Labour Party and long-serving adviser to Chancellor Rt Hon Alistair Darling's during the Global Financial Crisis. Sam helped Starmer drive the political and professional transformation of the Labour Party in opposition; climbing from -10% in the polls when Sam took on the role to +30% when he left.He has worked across Government: in Whitehall, in devolved administrations and with intergovernmental bodies, and covered briefs including the Treasury, transport, energy, business and trade during the last Labour Governments under Tony Blair & Gordon Brown.Sam spent a decade as a senior executive at the FTSE100 Aviva plc, running a range of teams and advising the CEOs and Board. One of the projects he was most proud of is authoring Aviva's Net Zero 2040 plan, which remains one of the most ambitious and comprehensive climate plans for a major financial services company.Today, Sam is Chair of Foundations: the What Works Centre for Children and Families, advising government on effective interventions in policies affecting children (for example children's social care, family support etc). He has a long history championing causes including Living Wage Foundation, Climate Change, Gender Equality and Social Mobility.He also acts as a Specialist Partner at the strategic consultancy Flint Global as well as MD of his own advisory business Next Chapter Strategy, working with senior leaders in business, charities and politics. He is on a number of advisory boards, including the Social Market Foundation think tank.He is married, living in Yorkshire with two daughters. And is proud to have been one of the most senior job-sharing dads in the UK.Sam regularly appears on the media to provide insight and commentary. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel covers the market performance on February 10th, highlighting mixed results with slight gains in the DOW and declines in the S&P and NASDAQ. He discusses significant moves in the bond market, including a drop in 10-year Treasury rates, and comments on the anticipated impacts of incoming Fed Chair Kevin Walsh. Szytel also reviews economic data, noting a lower-than-expected Small Businesses Optimism Survey and flat retail sales for December. He touches on the potential effects of upcoming CPI data and AI-related market volatility, projecting that AI will be a transformative technology despite the current volatility in its investment landscape. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:34 Bond Market Movements 01:29 Economic Data Insights 02:37 Upcoming CPI Report 04:00 AI Volatility Discussion 05:06 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Thanks to Monarch for partnering with me! Start your free trial and get 50% off your first year of total money clarity using my link https://monarchmoney.yt.link/mFP5VcW or code euro50.Authorities in China are advising Chinese banks they need to seriously consider changing up their bond market allocations right now. Citing concentration risk as well as the possibility for volatility, regulators are supposedly trying to prevent depositories from buying bonds. If this sounds familiar, it should since the PBOC did something similar in the summer of 2024. But in this case, the asset being targeted isn't local. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisChina Urges Banks to Curb Exposure to US Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-09/china-urges-banks-to-limit-holdings-of-us-treasuries-citing-market-volatilityForeign Holdings of US Treasuries Climbed to Record in Novemberhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-15/foreign-holdings-of-us-treasuries-climbed-to-record-in-novemberDollar Global Transaction Use Jumps to New High, Swift Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-22/dollar-global-transaction-usage-jumps-to-new-high-swift-saysPBOC Says No Longer in China's Interest to Increase Reserves (2013)https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-11-20/pboc-says-no-longer-in-china-s-favor-to-boost-record-reserveshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

We regularly look at macro economic data to forecast interest rates. Interest rates affect one of the three main variable associated with any project. Those three variables are construction costs, capital costs and rent. Everything else is a rounding error by comparison. We are expecting new payroll data from the bureau of labor and statistics later this week. However, those numbers are full of approximations and adjustments. To me, the most reliable data actually comes from private enterprise which is the real time payroll data from ADP. The ADP data is not a survey or a statistical sample. It's the real data taken from real payroll transactions in the past month. We're going to start with the employment data and then look at bond yields. We know that the Fed funds rate has dropped 75 basis points in the past year. But the yield on the 10 year treasury has hardly budged in spite of everything that has happened. So let's start with the payroll info and analyze from there. The latest ADP National Employment Report, released on February 4, 2026, indicates a significantly cooling U.S. labor market. Private sector employment grew by only 22,000 jobs in January, falling well short of the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 45,000.If we look by sector, the modest growth was almost entirely propped up by Education and Health Services, which added 74,000 jobs. Without this surge, the overall private sector numbers would have been negative.Treasury yields generally shifted lower as the market reacted to the signs of a rapidly cooling labor market. This trend was amplified by a "flight to safety" as investors moved out of riskier assets like equities and into the relative security of government bonds.------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

What does it take to transform a lean, manual treasury operation into a global, scalable powerhouse supporting 40+ markets?Alex Chalmers, Group Treasurer at Inchcape, shares how he did just that - while navigating complex M&A, implementing automation, and building regional treasury leadership around the world.Alex Chalmers is the Group Treasurer at Inchcape, the world's leading independent automotive distributor. With a career spanning Vodafone, Subsea7, and private equity-backed ventures, Alex brings deep expertise in building treasury functions that align with dynamic, fast-growing global businesses.In this episode of the Treasury Career Corner, Alex takes us through his treasury journey, from entering the field “by accident” to leading Inchcape's treasury function through major growth and transformation.You'll hear how he modernized systems, scaled operations across continents, and handled a £1.3B acquisition - while still staying hands-on with regional treasury realities.What We Cover in This Episode:How Alex transitioned from accounting to treasury - and why it stuckEarly lessons from Vodafone and Subsea7 on cash visibility and project healthTreasury in a PE-backed business vs. a listed global companyBuilding a modern treasury function from the ground up at InchcapeManaging treasury across 40+ markets with regional leadershipThe importance of TMS, payment platforms, and automationFinancing a £1.3B acquisition and preparing for market debut bondsThe role of stablecoins and digital payments in emerging marketsDeveloping yourself as a senior treasury leaderWhy curiosity, simplification, and networking are core to treasury successYou can connect with Alex Chalmers on LinkedIn.---

In this episode of The Grant Williams Podcast, I'm joined by Rabobank's Michael Every for a provocative exploration of why the post-Cold War liberal world order is breaking down — and what may replace it. Michael argues that decades of hyper-market economics hollowed out America's industrial and military base, and that Trump's project represents a radical attempt to reverse that trajectory by fusing national security and economic policy. Drawing on deep historical parallels with the collapse of the Soviet Union, he sets out his ‘reverse Gorbachev' thesis: an effort to impose a form of capitalism with a national-security face, subordinating markets to strategic necessity, elevating the Treasury over the Federal Reserve, and accepting higher inflation, heavier state intervention, and intensified political conflict at home and abroad in order to rebuild power and resilience. Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game, Kaos Theory, Shifts Happen and The Hundred Year Pivot, is available to Copper and Silver Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com.  Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… 

The census data that will likely inform Opportunity Zones 2.0 eligibility is now out. But how Treasury uses that data is still undecided. In this episode, Jimmy Atkinson is joined by Jason Watkins of Novogradac to discuss why a mechanical, spreadsheet-driven approach to census tract eligibility would be a mistake, how margins of error and unreliable income estimates complicate the analysis, and what a commonsense framework could look like as Treasury prepares to define the OZ 2.0 eligibility universe. Show notes & summary: https://opportunityzones.com/2026/02/jason-watkins-374/

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, AI, interest rates, private credit, small caps, and the risks investors may be underestimating. Nir shares his unexpected predictions for 2026, challenges the consensus on Fed rate cuts, explains why high profitability may be putting a floor under valuations, and offers a thoughtful framework for thinking about AI, concentration risk, and the future of public versus private markets. This is a deep dive into today's most important investing debates, grounded in history and focused on what may come next.Topics CoveredNir's unexpected predictions for 2026 and why mass adoption of autonomous vehicles may arrive faster than investors expectWhy the consensus on lower interest rates in 2026 may be wrong and what the two year Treasury yield is signalingThe impact of tariffs, affordability pressures, and corporate margins on inflationWhy high corporate profitability may support elevated stock market valuations even if returns slowThe role of earnings growth in driving S&P 500 returns and why 2015 to 2024 may not repeatIs AI more like 1995 or 1999 in the internet cycle and what that means for long term investorsThe convergence of big tech companies around AI and the risks of a more zero sum competitive landscapeWhy companies staying private longer could hurt retail investors and distort public market indicesConcentration risk in the S&P 500 and what it means for long term portfolio constructionOpportunities and risks in small cap stocks, including the importance of quality screensThe growth of private credit markets and the hidden risks investors may not seeWhy Treasuries may still be the cleanest shirt in the laundry during a crisisLessons from 20 years of running strategies and what Nir has changed his mind aboutTimestamps00:00 Nir's 2026 predictions and the rise of Waymo05:00 Interest rates, Trump, and the outlook for Fed policy08:40 Tariffs, inflation, and corporate margins12:00 Valuations, profitability, and future S&P 500 returns16:00 AI compared to the internet era and long term investing lessons19:00 Public versus private markets and regulatory concerns32:00 Concentration risk and the Magnificent Seven39:00 Small caps, quality screens, and value opportunities47:00 Private credit risks and default cycles54:30 Nir's investment philosophy and 20 year lessons

In this episode, Paul Galloway interviews Craig Jeffery about treasury and risk management systems. They define core TMS functionality, explore when organizations should invest in one, and review emerging technologies shaping future platforms, like AI, APIs, and cloud-native architecture.   Download the 2026 Treasury Technology Analyst Report Watch the TMS and TRMS webinar  

Hello, listeners, and welcome back to part 2 of the 51st episode of First Principles.Ms. Kalpana Morparia reached out to us via email after the bro-ification episode. It was the most pleasant surprise and we immediately knew we had to get her on the podcast.Here's someone who joined ICICI in 1975 as a lawyer, had absolutely no background in finance, and was then asked to run Treasury. She was terrified but her colleagues told her: "You do not say no to Mr. Kamath and live to have a great career in ICICI."So she said yes and built one of the most remarkable careers in Indian banking.She talks about the ICICI culture where contradicting the chairman wasn't just allowed, it was encouraged. A senior JPMorgan executive once said the most impressive thing about ICICI was that "the junior-most person could contradict the chairman and get away with it."She also gets candid about things most leaders don't talk about. Like why she wishes she had done an MBA. Why she has strong opinions about people's physical appearance at work and knows it's a flaw. Why her spiritual guru completely changed her relationship with the one thing she considered her biggest regret in life.She went to a Ferrari racetrack and hit 304 kmph. She believes work-life balance is nonsense and wishes every youngster would realize that life is work and work is life.Listen in for all this and more, including why she thinks India's next 30 years belong to banking, healthcare, and infrastructure. Why retirement at 60 is an outdated concept. And why on a scale of 1 to 10, she rates her happiness at 9 plus.**********This episode was produced by Uddantika Kashyap and mixed and mastered by Rajiv CN.Write to us at fp@the-ken.com with your feedback, suggestions, and guests you would want to see on First Principles.If you enjoyed this episode, please help us spread the word by sharing and gifting it to your friends and family.v

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong preview a crucial week of economic data, debating whether emerging “green shoots” in the labor market are real or just noise ahead of delayed jobs and CPI reports. The hour also dives into violent sector rotation under the surface of flat index performance, AI's threat to software business models, China's move to limit bank exposure to U.S. Treasurys, and the risks behind calls for renewed Fed-Treasury coordination under potential Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

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Ralph welcomes Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson to discuss a wide range of topics, including NATO, Greenland, Gaza, and more. Then, Ralph speaks to Rabbi Alissa Wise (founding director of Rabbis for Ceasefire) about the “Jews for Food Aid for People in Gaza" campaign. Finally, Ralph and the team address some current events.Lawrence Wilkerson is a retired U.S. Army colonel. Over his 31 years of service, Colonel Wilkerson served as Secretary of State Colin Powell's Chief of Staff from 2002 to 2005, and Special Assistant to General Powell when he was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from 1989 to 1993. Colonel Wilkerson also served as Deputy Director and Director of the U.S. Marine Corps War College at Quantico, Virginia, and for fifteen years he was the Distinguished Visiting Professor of Government and Public Policy at the College of William and Mary. He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network, senior advisor to the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, and co-founder of the All-Volunteer Force Forum.You aren't a newspaper, not really, if you don't have the guts to go out and get the news wherever it's happening. And you're reporting, nonetheless, to the American people [on the truth]. And it's nothing about the truth. It's as bad as what Netanyahu does in his own country in Hebrew. It's propaganda. And in many cases, it's not even accurate propaganda. It's falsified propaganda. You know, there used to be a law. And the law prohibited anyone in the Defense Department, for example, but any of the government agencies (Defense Department was the most guilty) that said: you cannot propagandize the American people. You can propagandize foreign audiences—even in wartime, you can propagandize those audiences, but you must not propagandize the American people. You have to tell them the truth or tell nothing at all. And if you're a media outlet, you should be telling them the truth, or the truth as you best can determine it. We don't honor that law anymore.Colonel Lawrence WilkersonI think [NATO and the EU are] gone, but I think the prospect for the future ought to be that we replace them. We don't just let them go and not have a replacement. And the replacement should be a European security architecture, which includes the Russians. And last time I checked a Rand McNally map, Russia (at least from the Urals inward) was a part of Europe. And it needs to be based not on spheres of influence, but on economic and financial and other needs that all of that group of people have. That's how you create something that will keep Europe and Russia together and not at loggerheads.Colonel Lawrence WilkersonI've said this a number of times (publicly I've said it) —the January 6th attempt to overthrow the United States government in favor of Donald Trump didn't fail because the system held. It failed because the coup plotters were incompetent, and their incompetence was most visible in not having the military (or a sizable segment thereof). They will not do that again.Colonel Lawrence WilkersonRabbi Alissa Wise is the Lead Organizer of Rabbis for Ceasefire, which she founded in October 2023. She was a staff leader at Jewish Voice for Peace from 2011-2021 and co-founded the JVP Rabbinical Council in 2010. She is co-author of “Solidarity is the Political Version of Love: Lessons from Jewish Anti-Zionist Organizing”. She is also one of the organizers of the “Jews for Food Aid for People in Gaza” campaign.I think there is a lot of support in the Jewish community for living up to core liberatory values that there are within Jewish tradition. This is true in every religious tradition and it's true in Judaism, where you can open the sacred text and find a justification for oppression or you could open a sacred text and find a pathway to liberation. And so what we're inviting people into is to pull the thread of liberatory Judaism. And making the conscious choice that those are the threads of the tradition that we want to pull on.Rabbi Alissa WiseThere's nothing Jewish about what the state of Israel is doing—about the state of Israel at all. It's not actually a fulfillment of Jewish practice or tradition or Torah. It's not a Torah-based government. It's government. It's a nation state. It's a military. And it uses—as I was saying before, one could open the Torah and identify justification for endless war or justification for freedom. And I think they often use their Jewishness as a fig leaf in order to shield themselves from criticism because “when you criticize them, you're being anti-Semitic.” And they pull on certain quotes or elements of Jewish teachings that either seem to uphold what they're doing while at the same time being palatable and accessible to the Christian Zionists that actually have for a long time been empowering US foreign policy.Rabbi Alissa WiseNews 2/6/26* Last week, we discussed the showdown in Congress over forcing Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify before the House Oversight Committee regarding the Epstein probe. Despite pressure from Democratic House leadership, many Democrats broke ranks to vote in favor of holding the former President and former Secretary of State in contempt of Congress. If this vote had gone to the full House, it is possible the couple could have been jailed until they agreed to testify. Instead, this week, Bill and Hillary Clinton agreed to appear before the Committee. Bill Clinton's relationship with Epstein is well-documented through the flight logs and photos that have emerged since the passage of the Epstein Files Transparency Act. Hillary Clinton claims never to have met or spoken with the late sex offender and financier, per the BBC. Former President Clinton will appear for a deposition on February 27th; the former Secretary of State will appear the day before. This piece notes that this will mark the first time a former president has testified to Congress since Gerald Ford did so in 1983 – marking a watershed moment for Congress reasserting its constitutional authority.* In more news of Congress asserting its authority vis-a-vis the Epstein scandal, Representatives Ro Khanna and Thomas Massie appeared on “Meet the Press,” this week and said that while the release of the latest batch of files is “significant,” it “is not good enough.” Khanna estimates that only about half of the Epstein files have been released so far. Given how much we have learned from the files so far, it is anyone's guess what lurks in the files they have yet to release. Crucially, withholding the files is in direct contravention of the law authored by the two lawmakers. Khanna stated plainly that “If we don't get the remaining files…Thomas Massie and I are prepared to move on impeachment,” of Attorney General Pam Bondi. This from CNBC.* The Epstein scandal has contributed to growing fissures in the MAGA movement. Perhaps the most notable defector from that camp is retired Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. This week, Greene sat for an interview with conservative radio personality Kim Iversen, and said that President Trump's Make America Great Again slogan was “all a lie…a big lie for the people,” adding “What MAGA is really serving in this administration, who they're serving, is their big donors,” per the Hill. Elaborating further, Greene said that Trump's financial backers are the real beneficiaries of the supposedly populist movement, saying “They get the government contracts, they get the pardons, or somebody they love or one of their friends gets a pardon.” While Greene has resigned her seat in Congress, she shows little sign of disappearing from the public eye. Many speculate she could seek political office in the future, even the presidency, charting a path forward for a post-Trump GOP.* Another major fight in Congress has to do with checking the out of control Department of Homeland Security. While congressional Democrats' response to the events in Minneapolis leaves much to be desired, Senate Democratic leadership is pushing for reforms to “rein in” ICE and Border Patrol, including “body camera requirements, an end to roving patrols, elevated warrant requirements and a measure to ban officers from wearing masks,” per the Hill. While these reforms fall far short of what is needed, they would go a long way toward checking the worst excesses of these out of control organizations that have come to resemble nothing so much as secret police.* At the state level, the New York Times reports New York Attorney General Letitia James announced that her office will “deploy legal observers to document raids conducted by federal immigration authorities across the state.” These observers, who will be outfitted with clearly identifiable purple vests, are intended to serve as “neutral witnesses on the ground,” and will be “instructed not to interfere with enforcement activity.” This piece highlights that California and New York have already “unveiled online portals for residents to upload photos and videos of misconduct by federal agents that could be used in state lawsuits against the federal government.” A similar effort is being launched by New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill. It remains to be seen whether these attempts to step up oversight of ICE and CBP activity will check the flagrant misconduct we have seen in places in Minneapolis.* In more state and local news, the Root reports the Gullah-Geechee people – descendants of enslaved Africans who formed unique communities including a distinct culture and even language on the coasts of states like Georgia, Florida and the Carolinas – have scored a victory against gentrification on Sapelo Island, the only surviving Gullah-Geechee community in Georgia. In 2023, developers came in and, with local commissioners in their pockets attempted to “eliminate special zoning laws… [and] double the maximum home size on the island…to 3,000 square feet.” In response, local activists and groups like Keep Sapelo Geechee collected thousands of signatures to force a community vote on the matter. This measure passed late last month by a margin of 85%. While small in scale, this victory shows that when residents organize to protect their communities they can win, even in the face of long odds.* A more disturbing story of the American periphery comes to us from Bolts Magazine. This story concerns a family from American Samoa, an unincorporated U.S. Pacific territory where residents are “American Nationals” but not citizens of the United States. This family – Tupe Smith, her husband Mike Pese and their children – moved to Whittier, Alaska in 2017 to be close to Pese's mother. Smith, a pillar of the local community, was recruited to run for the school board and won unanimously. However, because she is only a National and not a citizen, despite having a U.S. passport and Social Security number, she was in fact not eligible to run for office or even vote. Smith was arrested and indicted on two charges of felony voter misconduct. The irony of this story is that “The Alaska DMV, which doubles as a voter registration office…did not [even] include [the option to identify as a non-citizen U.S. national on official forms] until 2022” and the state has admitted that it “registered an unspecified number of non-citizens to vote between 2022 and 2024.” Now, because of Alaska's own mistakes, some Nationals are beginning to be deported over their erroneous registrations. Beyond the bureaucratic incompetence, this is a story about the American empire designating people outside of U.S. mainland second-class citizens, or more precisely, Nationals, for no discernible reason other than keeping them as a permanent colonial underclass.* Speaking of American imperial expansion, the Financial Times reports Trump administration officials held covert meetings with fringe separatist groups from Canada's oil-rich province of Alberta, such as the far-right Alberta Prosperity Project. According to this report, separatist leaders have met with US state department officials in Washington three times since April 2025, and the separatists are seeking another meeting next month with state and Treasury officials to ask for a $500 billion credit line to help keep the province afloat financially if an independence referendum is passed. This blatant undermining of Canadian sovereignty triggered outcry in the country, with British Columbia premier David Eby saying “To go to a foreign country and to ask for assistance in breaking up Canada, there's an old fashioned word for that, and that word is treason.” This from another story in the FT.* In more Trump news, after a slew of embarrassing incidents including composer Philip Glass pulling his new Lincoln symphony from the Kennedy Center in protest and the arts director resigning after just days on the job, NPR reports the president announced he will close the center for two years for “Construction, Revitalization, and Complete Rebuilding.” As the NPR piece notes, this announcement has sent ripples of confusion through the D.C. arts world, including everyone from performers in long running shows like Shear Madness, which is currently booked at the center through October as well as unions with Kennedy Center contracts, such as the musicians of the National Symphony and backstage crew. Moreover, technically Congress would have to approve of this overhaul, though considering how deferential Republican congressional leaders have proven, they would likely rubber-stamp any proposed changes. Regardless, a long-term closure of the Kennedy Center would be a tragic loss for the cultural landscape of Washington and a humiliating acknowledgment of Trump's own mismanagement of the venerable institution.* Finally, we turn to the tiny island nation of Cuba, which has held out against imperialist pressure from the United States for so many decades. This week, President Trump told reporters “Mexico is gonna cease sending [Cuba] oil,” though he did not explain why, per Reuters. At the same time, the Guardian reports Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has pledged to send humanitarian aid to Cuba adding that Mexico is “exploring all diplomatic avenues to be able to send fuel to the Cuban people,” despite the pressure campaign by the United States. She further claimed that despite Trump's comments, “We never discussed…the issue of oil with Cuba.” The Reuters piece however notes that “Trump has privately questioned Sheinbaum about crude and fuel shipments to Cuba,” and Sheinbaum “responded that the shipments are ‘humanitarian aid,'” and that Trump “did not directly urge Mexico to halt the oil deliveries.” On Sunday, the Hill reported Pope Leo XIV weighed in to beseech that the two nations engage in a “sincere and effective dialogue in order to avoid violence and every action that could increase the suffering of the dear Cuban people,” echoing a call by the Bishops of Cuba.This has been Francesco DeSantis, with In Case You Haven't Heard. Get full access to Ralph Nader Radio Hour at www.ralphnaderradiohour.com/subscribe

David Giroux, CIO of T. Rowe Price and manager of the Capital Appreciation strategy, joins Excess Returns for a wide ranging discussion on market valuation, AI investing, Mag 6 dynamics, utilities, healthcare, fixed income, and how to think independently in volatile markets. David shares his framework for exploiting structural market inefficiencies, why market drawdowns can create opportunity, how he evaluates the S&P 500 at the micro level, and what investors are getting wrong about AI, profit margins, and the current cycle.Main topics covered in this episode• Exploiting structural market inefficiencies in GARP stocks, high yield, and double B credit• Why market drawdowns often lower forward risk and increase expected returns• Strategic equity allocation during periods of fear and volatility• Rethinking S&P 500 valuation through 500 company bottom up analysis• The changing composition of the index and its impact on profit margins• Where the most overvalued and undervalued areas of the market may be today• AI investing framework including Nvidia, AMD, cloud providers, and software risk• How AI could reshape margins, labor productivity, and enterprise software• Differences between today and the dotcom bubble• Overweight positioning in utilities and healthcare and the thesis behind each• Fixed income positioning including the belly of the Treasury curve and fiscal risk• Commodities, gold, and fiscal sustainability• Lessons for portfolio managers on independent thinking and making high conviction betsTimestamps00:00 Market drawdowns and forward returns02:09 Exploiting structural market inefficiencies06:28 Strategic equity allocation during selloffs11:22 Is the market expensive and how to value the S&P 50015:00 Profit margins and index composition17:13 Where valuation excess exists outside the Mag 620:38 How to think about AI and enterprise adoption27:18 AI disruption risk across sectors39:20 AI versus the dotcom bubble42:30 Apple versus Meta and capital allocation46:53 Overweight utilities and healthcare52:57 Fixed income opportunities and risks57:32 Commodities, gold, and fiscal concerns01:00:15 Lessons for new portfolio managers

Markets trade on more than just economic data. They trade on geopolitics, technology, policy, and elections. In a world searching for a new equilibrium, old assumptions are expensive mistakes. Daleep Singh, Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist at PGIM, has spent his career at the intersection of markets and policy, from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to the White House. Now, Daleep is sharing his perspectives with you. On PGIM's The Outthinking Investor, Daleep sits down with prominent economists, technologists, policymakers, and market veterans to map out the full distribution of what comes next—and why it matters.

Tonight on The Last Word: Trump ally Steve Bannon calls for ICE at polling sites. Also, Democratic governors condemn Donald Trump's threat to “nationalize” elections. And in a New York Times op-ed, Reece Jones says “the border patrol is the problem.” Andrew Weissmann, Gov. Abigail Spanberger, and Reece Jones join Lawrence O'Donnell. To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Jeffrey Epstein's entanglement with Leon Black and Larry Summers runs through the Jeffrey Epstein VI Foundation and its flagship project, the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), born out of the wreckage of the 2008 financial crisis. Black, the billionaire Apollo founder, bankrolled INET with roughly $25 million and installed himself as its chief patron, while Summers — fresh off his controversial presidency at Harvard and a career bouncing between Wall Street and Washington — became one of its intellectual faces. Epstein, already a convicted sex offender by 2008, quietly emerged as a financial conduit and behind-the-scenes broker for INET and its affiliates, using donor networks, shell foundations, and elite access to move money and cultivate influence. Through Epstein's foundation, funds were routed into academic projects, conferences, and research hubs that placed him back inside elite academic circles that had supposedly shut him out, laundering his reputation through economics, philanthropy, and intellectual respectability.What makes the IPI/INET web so corrosive is how thoroughly it fused money, power, and reputational cover. Black would later admit paying Epstein $158 million for “tax advice,” an explanation so implausible it collapsed under its own weight, while Summers maintained institutional ties to projects and donors connected to Epstein long after his 2008 conviction was public record. Epstein was not a peripheral donor — he was a facilitator, recruiter, and fixer who connected hedge-fund money, Ivy League legitimacy, and political access in a closed loop that insulated all participants from scrutiny. The IPI ecosystem gave Epstein exactly what he needed after Florida: proximity to young academics, international travel, visa sponsorships, and an elite shield that made him look like a disgraced financier turned reformed intellectual benefactor. It wasn't an accident, and it wasn't ignorance — it was a deliberate system where billionaires, former Treasury secretaries, and a convicted predator all found mutual benefit inside the same polished academic machine.to contact  me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.com

This week's agriculture headlines focus on what the U.S. Treasury's announcement on the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit means for farmers, the EPA's expectation to reapprove dicamba and new guidance surrounding the right to repair, along with a conversation on manufacturing and safety with Bernard Krone of KRONE. On today's show, news includes the clarity welcomed by farmers and biofuel stakeholders following the U.S. Treasury Department's proposed rule for the 45Z tax credit, analyzed on today's show by Continuum Ag CEO and seventh-generation farmer Mitchell Hora. Additional ag policy updates include the EPA expected to reapprove dicamba for over-the-top use on tolerant soybeans and cotton for the 2026 growing season, a Farm Bill 2.0 markup session scheduled for late February and biofuel and farm groups warning Congress in a letter this week that the U.S. farm economy is under serious strain. Policy priorities set at CattleCon, the National Cattlemen's Beef Association's annual conference, are also highlighted. This week's interview features Bernard Krone, owner of KRONE, who speaks with Tanner Winterhof at the U.S. Custom Harvester, Inc. annual convention. The conversation focuses on equipment safety and the latest technology in KRONE manufacturing. Stay connected with us for more agriculture content on Instagram, TikTok, Facebook, and YouTube, along with our weekly videos!

United States Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, reports that Iranian leaders have been moving money out of the country and may believe that the regime is on the verge of collapse under the under pressure from American sanctions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the path for U.S. interest rates after the nomination of Kevin Warsh for next Fed chair.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today we'll be talking about the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that occurred last week.It's Thursday, February 5th at 8:30 am in New York.So, Mike, last week we had the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2026. What were your general impressions from the meeting? And how did it compare to what you had thought going in? Michael Gapen: Well, Matt, I think that the main question for markets was how hawkish a hold or how dovish a hold would this be. As you know, it was widely expected the Fed would be on hold. The incoming data had been fairly solid. Inflation wasn't all that concerning, and most of the employment data suggested things had stabilized. So, it was clear they were going to pause. The question was would they pause or would they be on pause, right? And in our view, it was more of a dovish hold. And by that, it suggests to us, or they suggested to us, I should say, that they still have an easing bias and rates should generally move lower over time. So, that really was the key takeaway for me. Would they signal a prolonged pause and perhaps suggest that they might be done with the easing cycle? Or would they say, yes, we've stopped for now, but we still expect to cut rates later? Perhaps when inflation comes down and therefore kind of retain a dovish bias or an easing bias in the policy rate path. So, to me, that was the main takeaway. Matthew Hornbach: Of course, as we all know, there are supposed to be some personnel changes on the committee this year. And Chair Powell was asked several questions to try to get at the future of this committee and what he himself was going to do personally. What was your impression of his response and what were the takeaways from that part of the press conference? Michael Gapen: Well, clearly, he's been reluctant to, say, pre-announce what he may do when his term is chair ends in May. But his term as a governor extends into 2028. So, he has options. He could leave normally that's what happens. But he could also stay and he's never really made his intentions clear on that part. I think for maybe personal or professional reasons. But he has his own; he has his own reasons and, and that's fine. And I do think the recent subpoena by the DOJ has changed the calculus in that. At least my own view is that it makes it more likely that he stays around. It may be easier for him to act in response to that subpoena by being on staff. It's a request for additional information; he needs access to that information. I think you could construct a reasonable scenario under which, ‘Well, I have to see this through, therefore, I may stay around.' But maybe he hasn't come to that conclusion yet. And then stepping back, that just complicates the whole picture in the sense that we now know the administration has put forward Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chair. Will he be replacing the seat that Jay Powell currently sits in? Will he be replacing the seat that Stephen Myron is sitting in? So yes, we have a new name being put forward, but it's not exactly clear where that slot will be; and what the composition of the committee will look like. Matthew Hornbach: Well, you beat me to the punch on mentioning Kevin Warsh… Michael Gapen: I kind of assumed that's where you were going. Matthew Hornbach: It was going to be my next question. I'm curious as to what you think that means for Fed policy later this year, if anything. And what it might mean more medium term? Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, first of all, congratulations to Mr. Warsh on the appointment. In terms of what we think it means for the outlook for the Fed's reaction function and interest rate policy, we doubt that there will be a material change in the Fed's reaction function. His previous public remarks don't suggest his views on interest rate policy are substantively outside the mainstream, or at least certainly the collective that's already in the FOMC. Some people would prefer not to ease. The majority of the committee still sees a couple more rate cuts ahead of them. Warsh is generally aligned with that, given his public remarks. But then also all the reserve bank presidents have been renominated. There's an ongoing Supreme Court case about the ability of the administration to fire Lisa Cook. If that is not successful, then Kevin Warsh will arrive in an FOMC where there's 16 other people who all get a say. So, the chair's primary responsibility is to build a consensus; to herd the cats, so to speak. To communicate to markets and communicate to the public. So, if Mr. Warsh wanted to deviate substantially from where the committee was, he would have to build a consensus to do that. So, we think, at least in the near term, the reaction function won't change. It'll be driven by the data, whether the labor market holds up, whether inflation, decelerates as expected. So, we don't look for material change. Now you also asked about the medium term. I do think where his views differ, at least with respect to current Fed policy is on the size of the Fed's balance sheet and its footprint in financial markets. So, he has argued over time for a much smaller balance sheet. He's called the Fed's balance sheet bloated. He has said that it creates distortions in markets, which mean interest rates could be higher than they otherwise would be. And so, I think if there is a substantive change in Fed policy going forward, it could be there on the balance sheet. But what I would just say on that is it'll likely take a lot of coordination with Treasury. It will likely take changes in rules, regulations, the supervisory landscape. Because if you want to reduce the balance sheet further without creating volatility in financial markets, you have to find a way to reduce bank demand for it. So, this will take time, it'll take study, it'll take patience. I wouldn't look for big material changes right out of the box. So Matt, what I'd like to do is, if I could flip it back to you, Warsh was certainly one of the expected candidates, right? So, his name is not a surprise. But as we knew financial markets, one day we're thinking it'd be one candidate. The next day it'd be thinking at the next it was somebody else. How did you see markets reacting to the announcement of Mr. Warsh? For the next Fed share, and then maybe put that in context of where markets were coming out of the last FOMC meeting. Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the markets that moved the most were not the traditional, very large macro markets like the interest rate marketplace or the foreign exchange market. The markets that moved the most were the prediction markets. These newer markets that offer investors the ability to wager on different outcomes for a whole variety of events around the world. But when it comes to the implications of a Kevin Warsh led Fed – for the bigger macro markets like interest rates and currencies, the question really comes down to how? If the Fed's balance sheet policies are going to take a while to implement, those are not going to have an immediate effect, at least not an effect that is easily seen with the human eye. But it's other types of policy change in terms of his communication policy, for example. One of the points that you raised in your recent note, Mike, was how Kevin Warsh favored less communication than perhaps some of the recent, Federal Open Market Committees had with the public. And so, if there is some kind of a retrenchment from the type of over-communication to the marketplace, from either committee members or non-voters that could create a bit more volatility in the marketplace. Of course, the Fed has been one of the central banks that does not like to surprise the markets in terms of its monetary policy making. And so, that contrasts with other central banks in the G10. For example, the Swiss National Bank tends to surprise quite a lot. The Reserve Bank of Australia tends to surprise markets. More often, certainly than the Fed does. So, to the extent that there's some change in communication strategy going forward that could lead to more volatile interest rate in currency markets. And that then could cause investors to demand more risk premium to invest in those markets. If you previously were comfortable owning a longer duration Treasury security because you felt very comfortable with the future path of Fed policy, then a Kevin Warsh led Fed – if it decides to change the communication strategy – could naturally lead investors to demand more risk premium in their investments. And that, of course, would lead to a steeper U.S. Treasury curve, all else equal. So that would be one of the main effects that I could see happen in markets as a result of some potential changes that the Fed may consider going forward. So, Mike, with that said, this was the first FOMC meeting of the year, and the next meeting arrives in March. I guess we'll just have to wait between now and then to see if the Fed is on hold for a longer period of time or whether or not the data convinced them to move as soon as the March meeting. Thanks for taking time to talk, Mike. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Paul Krugman, Nobel laureate in economics, former New York Times columnist now on Substack, distinguished professor at the City University of New York Graduate Center, and the author of Arguing with Zombies: Economics, Politics, and the Fight for a Better Future (W. W. Norton & Company, 2020), talks about how President Trump's economic policies are affecting investors, and what that could mean for the overall economy.

Today on Stinchfield, undeniable proof that President Donald Trump has assembled the greatest cabinet in American history. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered a masterclass before Congress, calmly dismantling Democrat hysteria while laying out a rock solid defense of President Trump’s America First economic agenda. Clear, confident, and in full command of the facts, Bessent showed exactly why Trump’s cabinet stands head and shoulders above anything Washington has seen before. Bessent’s testimony exposed the left’s economic illiteracy and reaffirmed why President Trump’s policies are working. Lower inflation pressure, stronger markets, and a government finally focused on growth instead of globalist fantasies. When Democrats tried to grandstand, Bessent answered with precision and authority, leaving no doubt that the Treasury is in the hands of a serious leader. We also break down President Trump’s powerful remarks at today’s National Prayer Breakfast, where he delivered an unapologetic defense of religious freedom in America. At a time when faith is under constant attack from the radical left, Trump stood firm for believers, churches, and the foundational role faith plays in this nation. We will play highlights from his speech and explain why it matters now more than ever. https://TheMaverickSystem.comhttps://GrantLovesGold.comhttps://www.EnergizedHealth.com/Granthttps://www.PatriotMobile.com/Granthttps://Twc.Health/Grant with code “Grant” for 10% offhttps://VRAInsider.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Donald Trump at the annual National Prayer Breakfast talks about his chances of getting to heaven and announces an upcoming prayer gathering in May on the National Mall in Washington. He also touches on other issues like immigration enforcement; Congressional Democrats spell out their demands for reforming the Department of Homeland Security's immigration operations in exchange for supporting an extension of funding in a week. Congressional Republicans and the White House react; Treasury Secretary Scott  Bessent testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on affordability and Federal Reserve independence; Last major nuclear weapons control treaty between the U.S. and Russia, New START, expires today. President Trump calls it a 'badly negotiated deal' and calls for a 'new, improved & modernized treaty that can last long into the future'; House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) warns of threats to the First Amendment in a speech at the Washington Press Club Foundation annual dinner; Vice President JD Vance lands in Italy to lead the U.S. delegation to the Winter Olympics; former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN) has died at age 94. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the security news this week: Residential proxy abuse is everywhere this week: from Google's takedown of IPIDEA to massive Citrix NetScaler scanning and the Badbox 2.0 botnet Supply chain fun time: Notepad++ updates were hijacked Attackers set their sights on: Ivanti EPMM, Dell Unity storage, Fortinet VPNs/firewalls, and ASUSTOR NAS devices Russian state hackers went after Poland's grid Is ICE on a surveillance shopping spree and into hacking anti-ICE apps? Ukraine's war-time Starlink problem is turning into a policy and controls experiment The AI security theme is alive and well with exposed LLM endpoints, OpenClaw/Moltbot/Moltbook fiasco, and letting anyone hijack agents Signed forensic driver for Windows is still an EDR killer The Trump administration's rollback of software security attestation National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross says: “less regulation, more cooperation.” Finally, there are some “only in infosec” human stories: * pen testers arrested in Iowa now getting a settlement, * a Google engineer convicted over stolen AI IP, * Booz Allen losing Treasury work over intentional insider leaks, * and an “AI psychosis” saga at an adult-content platform. Visit https://www.securityweekly.com/psw for all the latest episodes! Show Notes: https://securityweekly.com/psw-912

Welcome to The Daily Wrap Up, an in-depth investigatory show dedicated to bringing you the most relevant independent news, as we see it, from the last 24 hours (2/5/26). As always, take the information discussed in the video below and research it for yourself, and come to your own conclusions. Anyone telling you what the truth is, or claiming they have the answer, is likely leading you astray, for one reason or another. Stay Vigilant. !function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/u2q643"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");   Rumble("play", {"video":"v735zgs","div":"rumble_v735zgs"}); Video Source Links (In Chronological Order): (7) The Last American Vagabond on X: "So all this hype about Somali daycare fraud only for the Republicans to largely allow this to continue. The government is not on your side. It actively plays us against ourselves so nothing changes. #TwoPartyIllusion" / X (7) Grok on X: "@MaryBowdenMD @RepThomasMassie The House Rules Committee voted 8-4 to report the rule for H.R. 7148 without making Massie's daycare amendment in order, effectively blocking it. Yea voters: Michelle Fischbach (R-MN) Ralph Norman (R-SC) Chip Roy (R-TX) Nick Langworthy (R-NY) Austin Scott (R-GA) Morgan Griffith" / X (7) James O'Keefe on X: "BREAKING: FBI Official Admits Kash Patel WILL NOT Arrest ANY Minnesota Daycare Criminals. https://t.co/7WR6SdaGOx" / X (13) Lexi on X: "@FBIDirectorKash https://t.co/HsUbj0Jfcf" / X (13) Christopher Raymond on X: "@marvomago @michaeljknowles It's so bizarre that MAGA has invented a standard where all protests must be comprised only of people who, through no communication or coordination with other people, all somehow happen to show up at the same place at the same time. Newsflash - protests are coordinated" / X New Tab (13) Scott Horton on X: "-Iran has an "unalienable right" to a civilian nuclear program as members of the NPT -US has no authority to insist on limits to their missiles' ranges, no pretended UNSC resolution or anything, none can reach America -Hezbollah is Israel's problem, not the USA's. They kill AQ" / X (13) Rapid Response 47 on X: ""Should the Supreme Leader in Iran be worried right now?" @POTUS: "I would say he should be very worried, yeah, he should be." https://t.co/kMQTzx61V1" / X (13) Daniel McAdams on X: "AIPAC thanking @JDVance is not the win Vance may think it is. They've just alienated almost every under-40 Republican voter for 2028. @AIPAC is no longer a force-multiplier you want on your side and out front. It is a political liability you want to remain in the background." / X (13) The Last American Vagabond on X: "Trump: "Look, that country is a mess right now because of us", referring to Iran. Yeah man, we know. But please keep telling us it's Iran's "mismanagement".

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang and senior leaders from Investment Management Andrew Slimmon and Jitania Kandhari unpack new investment trends from supportive monetary and fiscal policy and shifting market leadership. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross Asset Strategist. Today we're revisiting the 2026 global equity outlook with two senior leaders from Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Andrew Slimmon: I am Andrew Slimmon, Head of Applied Equity Team within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Jitania Kandhari: And I'm Jitania Kandhari, Deputy CIO of the Solutions and Multi-Asset Group, Portfolio Manager for Passport Strategies and Head of Macro and Thematic Research for Emerging Market Equities within Morgan Stanley Investment Management.It's Tuesday, February 3rd at 10 am in New York. So as investors are entering in 2026, after several years of very strong equity returns with policy support reaccelerating. As regular listeners have probably heard, Mike Wilson, who of course is CIO and Chief Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley – his view is that we ended a three-year rolling earnings recession in last April and entered a rolling recovery and a new bull market. Now, Andrew, in the spirit of debate, I know you have a different take on valuations and where we are at in the cycle. I'd love to hear how you're framing this for investment management clients. Andrew Slimmon: Yeah, I mean, I guess I focus a little bit more on the behavioral cycle. And I think that from a behavioral cycle we're following a very consistent pattern, which is we had a bad bear market in 2022 that bottomed down 25 percent. And that provided a wonderful opportunity to invest. But early in a behavioral cycle, investors are very pessimistic. And that was really the story of [20]23 and really 2024, which were; investors, you know, were negative on equities. The ratios were all very negative and investors sold out of equities. And that's consistent with a early cycle. And then as you move into the third-fourth year, investors tend to get more optimistic about returns. Doesn't necessarily mean the market goes down. But what it does mean is the market tends to get more volatile and returns start to compress, and ultimately, bull markets die on euphoria. And so, I think it's late cycle, but it's not end of cycle. And that's my theme; is late cycle but not end of cycle.Serena Tang: And I think on that point, one very unusual feature of this environment is that you have both monetary and fiscal policy being supportive at the same time, which, of course, rarely happens outside of recession. So how do you see those dual policy forces shaping market behavior and which parts of the market tend to benefit? Andrew Slimmon: Well, that's exactly right. Look, the last time I checked, page one of the investment handbook says, ‘Don't fight the Fed.' And so, you have monetary policy easing. And what we; remember what happened in 2021? The Fed raised rates and monetary policy was tightening. Equities do well when the Fed is easing, and that's one of the reasons why I think it's not end of cycle. And then you layer in fiscal policy with tax relief coming, it is a reason to be relatively optimistic on equities in 2026. But it doesn't mean there can't be bumps along the way – and I think a higher level of optimism as we're seeing today is a result of that. But I think you stick with those more procyclical areas: Finance, Industrials, Technology, and then you move down the cap curve a little bit. I think those are the winning trades. They really started to come to the fore in the second half of last year, and I think that will continue into 2026. Serena Tang: Right. And we've definitely seen some bumps recently, but I think on your point around yields. So, Jitania, I think that policy backdrop really ties directly to your idea of the age of capped real rates. In very simple terms, can you explain what that means and what's behind that view? Jitania Kandhari: Sure. When I say age of real rates being capped, I mean like the structural template within which I'm operating, and real rates here are defined by the 10-year on the Treasury yield adjusted for CPI.Firstly, I'd say there was too much linear thinking in markets post Liberation Day. That tariffs equals inflation equals higher rates. Now, tariff impacts, as we have seen, can be offset in several ways, and economic relationships are rarely linear.So, inflation may not go up to the extent market is expecting. So that supports the case for capped rates. And the real constraint is the debt arithmetic, right? So, if you look at the history of public debt in the U.S., whenever there was a surge in public debt during the Civil War, two World Wars, Global Financial Crisis, even during COVID. In all these periods, when debt spiked, real rates have remained negative.So, there can be short term swings in rates, but I believe that markets not necessarily central banks will even enforce that cap. Serena Tang: You've described this moment, as the great broadening of 2026. What's driving this and what do you think is happening now after years of very narrow concentration? Jitania Kandhari: Yes. I think like if last decade was about concentration, now it's going to be about breadth. And if you look at where the concentration was, it was in the [Mag] 7, in the AI trade. We are beginning to see some cracks in the consensus where adoption is happening, but monetization is lagging. But clearly the next phase of value creation could happen from just the model building to the application layer, as you guys have also talked about – from enablers to adopters.The other thing we are seeing is two AI ecosystems evolve globally. The high cost cutting edge U.S. innovation engine and the lower cost efficiency driven Chinese model, each of them have their own supply chain beneficiaries. And as AI is moving into physical world, you're going to see more opportunities. And then secondly, I think there are limitations on this tariff policies globally; and tariff fears to me remain more of an illusion than a reality because U.S. needs to import a lot of intermediate goods And then lastly, I see domestic cycles inflecting upwards in many other pockets of the world. And you add all this up; the message is clear that leadership is broadening and portfolio should broaden too. Serena Tang: And I want to sort of stay on this topic of broadening. So, Andrew, I think, you've also highlighted, you know, this market broadening, especially beyond the large cap leaders, even as AI investment continues, I think, as you touched on earlier. So why does that matter for equity leadership in 2026? And can you talk about the impact of this broadening on valuations in general? Andrew Slimmon: Sure. So I think, you know, I've been around a long time and I remember when the internet first rolled out, the Mosaic browser was introduced in 1993. And the first thing the stock market tried to do is appoint winners – of who was going to win the internet, you know, search race. And it was Ask Jeeves and it was Yahoo and it was Netscape. Well, none of those were the winners. We just don't know who's ultimately going to be the tech winner. I think it's much safer to know that just like the internet, AI is a technology productivity enhancing tool, and companies are going to embrace AI just like they embraced the internet. And the reason the stock market doubled between 1997 and the dotcom peak was that productivity margins went up for a lot of companies in a lot of industries as they embraced the internet. So, to me, a broadening out and looking at lower valuations, it is in many ways safer than saying this is the technology winner, and this is technology loser. I think it's all many different industries are going to embrace and benefit from what's going on with AI. Serena Tang: You don't want to know where I was in 1993. And I don't recognize most of those names. Andrew Slimmon: Sorry. I was 14! Serena Tang: [Laughs] Ok. Investors often hear two competing messages now. Ignore the macro and buy great companies or let the big picture drive everything. How do you balance top-down signals with bottom-up fundamentals in your investment process? Andrew Slimmon: Yeah, I think you have to employ both, and I hear that all the time; especially I hear, you know, my competitors, ‘Oh, I just focus on my stock picks, my bottom up.' But, you know, look statistically, two-thirds of a manager's relative performance comes from macro. You know, how did growth do? How did value do? All those types of things that have nothing to do with what stock picks... And likewise, much of a return of an individual stock has to do with things beyond just what's happening fundamentally. But some of it comes from what's happening at the company level. So, I think to be a great investor, you have to be aware of the macro. The Fed cutting rates this year is a very powerful tool, and if you don't understand the amplifications of that as per what types of stocks work, because you're so focused on the micro, I think that's a mistake. Likewise, you have to know what's going on in your company [be]cause one third of term does come from actual stock selection. So, I'm a big believer in marrying a top down and a bottom up and try to capture the two thirds and the one third.Serena Tang: Since that 2022 bear market low that you talked about earlier. I mean, your framework really favored growth and value over defensives. But I think more recently you've increased your non-U.S. exposure. What changed in your top-down signals and bottom-up data to make global opportunities more compelling now? Is it the narrative of the end of U.S. exceptionalism or something else? Andrew Slimmon: No, I really think it's actually something else, which is we have picked up signals from other parts of the world, Europe and Japan. That are different signals than we saw really for the last decade, which is namely that pro-cyclical stocks started to work. Value stocks started to work in the first half of 2025. And you look at the history of when that happens, usually value doesn't work for a year and peter out. So that's been a huge change where I would say, a safer orientation has shown the relative leadership, and we have to be – recognize that. So, in our global strategies, we've been heavily weighted towards, the U.S. orientation because we didn't see really a cyclical bias outside. And now that's changing and that has caused us to increase the allocation to non-U.S. exposure. It's a longwinded way of saying, look, I think what the story of last year was the U.S. did just fine. But there were parts of the world that did better and I think that will continue in 2026. Serena Tang: Andrew, Jitania thank you so much for taking the time to talk. Andrew Slimmon: Great speaking with you, Serena. Jitania Kandhari: Thanks for having us on the show. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

In today's show, The Right Side, we go beyond headlines and into the hidden architecture of power that shapes nations, markets, and everyday life.This episode breaks down why markets move on confidence, not just data, how the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury operate as two separate keys to the same financial system, and why **legitimacy — not force — is what ultimately holds a Republic together.We explore how money, law, and meaning interact to create stability or chaos, why unelected institutions shape daily life more than most people realize, and how global actors read America's internal signals as cues for pressure, testing, and leverage.This is a civic deep-dive for listeners who want more than talking points — a master-class in understanding how power really works inside a constitutional Republic.