Podcasts about Treasury

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders welcomes Collin Martin as her new co‑host. Collin outlines his role as Schwab's head of fixed income research and strategy, highlighting his broad coverage of the bond market—from Treasuries and Fed policy to corporate credit, municipals, mortgages, and global bonds.  The conversation then turns to markets and geopolitics, focusing on the ongoing conflict involving Iran and its market impact. Liz Ann explains that while major equity indexes have appeared relatively resilient, this masks significant volatility beneath the surface. She notes sharp rotations across sectors, wide drawdowns among individual stocks, and heightened churn driven by shifting narratives—ranging from AI disruption concerns to war‑related energy shocks.  Collin connects these equity dynamics to fixed income, explaining why Treasury yields have risen rather than fallen despite geopolitical uncertainty. Elevated oil prices and rising inflation expectations have pushed yields higher, countering the typical “flight to safety” dynamic. He also highlights how shifting Fed expectations are influencing bond markets and raises the key uncertainty: whether prolonged conflict could eventually tilt the focus from inflation risk to economic growth risk, potentially reversing yield trends. On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.  If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts. Important Disclosures This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy. Preferred securities are a type of hybrid investment that share characteristics of both stock and bonds. They are often callable, meaning the issuing company may redeem the security at a certain price after a certain date. Such call features, and the timing of a call, may affect the security's yield. Preferred securities generally have lower credit ratings and a lower claim to assets than the issuer's individual bonds. Like bonds, prices of preferred securities tend to move inversely with interest rates, so their prices may fall during periods of rising interest rates. Investment value will fluctuate, and preferred securities, when sold before maturity, may be worth more or less than original cost. Preferred securities are subject to various other risks including changes in interest rates and credit quality, default risks, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, deferral risk, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be more sensitive to interest rate changes than other fixed income investments. They are subject to extension risk, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and prepayment risk, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns. All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data. The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party. Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions (0326-T915) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode comes directly from the Wednesday update that members inside the DTA community receive. In this update we discuss: Inflation just got more aggressive, and today's PPI report proves it. We break down the February 2026 Producer Price Index data, why a 48.9% spike in vegetable prices is more than a blip, and what Jerome Powell's careful word choice is really telling us about the state of the economy.In this episode:​Why PPI came in at 0.7% — more than double expectations — and what's driving it.​The "perfect storm" of weather, tariffs, and labor shortages is hitting food prices.​Powell's "pincer move" explanation and why he's refusing to use the word stagflation.​The 10-year Treasury yield is hitting 4.25% and why. ​Earnings breakdown: Micron's massive AI-driven beats the forecast. ​SPY and QQQ key levels — why the market is bearish but still highly tradeable.​The two catalysts that could flip the inflation narrative. Subscribe to The Disciplined Traders Podcast for market breakdowns, trading education, and no-nonsense analysis.

A prolonged oil disruption is pushing gas prices higher. Arunima Sinha from our U.S. and Global Economics team joins Head of U.S. Policy Strategy Ariana Salvatore to discuss what that means for consumer spending, inflation expectations and the U.S. midterm elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha from Morgan Stanley's U.S. and Global Economics Teams.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Policy Strategy.Arunima Sinha: Today – what are the implications of the ongoing oil disruption for the U.S. consumer?It's Wednesday, March 18th at 10am in New York.Ariana, let's start with where we are in week three of this particular oil disruption and what you are thinking about in terms of what the paths to resolution could look like.Ariana Salvatore: Yeah. Great place to start. So, I would say before we get into what the resolution could look like, we need to think about how long could this conflict possibly last? And that's the most relevant question for investors as well. And there I would say there's very little conviction just because of the uncertainty associated with this conflict. But I'm keeping my eye on three different things.The first is a clearer prioritization of the objectives tied to the conflict. The Trump administration has laid out a number of different goals for this conflict, some of which are shorter in nature than others. The second thing I think we're looking at – that's really important – is traffic at the Strait of Hormuz. And there, the Trump administration has spoken about insurance, you know, naval escorts – all of these things that we think will take some time to really come to fruition. And at the time that we're recording this, it seems that we're still getting about low single digit number of tankers through the strait on a daily basis. So that's the second thing.The third point I would make is any type of escalation is really critical here. So, whether it's vertical – meaning different types of weapons used, different types of targets being hit. Or horizontal escalation, broadening out into different proxies and, and more so throughout the region. Those are really important indicators, and right now all of these things are pointing to a slightly longer-term conflict than I think most people expected at the start.Now, in terms of what that means for markets, for domestic gasoline prices, all these are really important questions that I'm sure we're going to get into. But what we should note is that the president has spoken about a number of policy offsets to mitigate those price increases, ranging from the Treasury actually loosening up some of the sanctions on Russia to sell some oil. You know, we've heard some talk of invoking the Jones Act waiver. That's a temporary fix.On net, we think that these policy offsets are not going to really be enough to mitigate that supply loss that we're getting. That's a 20 million barrel per day loss. Some of these efforts mainly will, kind of, target about 7 or 8 million barrels per day. You're still in a deficit of about 10 to 13 [million]. And that's really meaningful for markets, for consumption as you well know, and everything else in between.Arunima Sinha: That's really helpful perspective, Ariana. And it's also a useful segue to think about the note that we jointly put out a few days ago. And just thinking about what this means for the U.S. consumer. And there, I think there's the first point to start with is that the consumer is now going to be living through the third supply shock in about five years. So, after COVID, after tariffs, here comes the next. And I think this particular oil shock is going to be somewhat different from tariffs in the sense that this is going to hit consumers at the front end and directly. This is not something that is going to have to pass through business costs. And some of them could be absorbed by businesses and not fully passed on to the consumer. So, I think that's an important point.The second point here is that in terms of the share of spending of gasoline out of total spend, we are at pretty low numbers. We're somewhere in the 2 to 3 percent range. So, it could give a little bit of a cushion. So, the longer-term average can be somewhere about 4 percent. So, there could be some cushion. But we know that consumers have already been stretched by, sort of, several years of high prices.And so, the way that we thought about what some of the channels could be for how higher oil prices, which translate into higher gas prices, could matter for the consumer. I think there are, sort of, three to identify.The first one is that it is really just a hit to your real purchasing power because this is a type of good that is actually really hard to substitute away from. And you could look through some of it, at the start. So maybe in the first month you don't react very much. You pull down on some savings; you take out a little bit of short-term credit.But the longer it lasts, the bigger the consumption response is going to be. And the second channel then to identify is – you start to build up some precautionary savings motives because there's this uncertainty that's also lasting for some time. And what do you pull back on? You'll typically pull back on discretionary types of spending.And so, we sized out this impact to say that if oil prices were to be about 50 percent higher and they last for two to three quarters, it could hit real personal spending growth by about 40 [basis points] after 12 months. And most of that is really just coming from the impact on good spending, specifically through durable goods.So, there could be some meaningful impact to real consumer spending in the U.S., if this shock were to go on longer. And the last point I would just say is, you know, how do inflation expectations move? Because that's an important point for the Fed and it's an important point for just people who are thinking about their spending decisions over the next year or so.And one interesting thing I think came out in the University of Michigan survey that came out this Friday; and this was a preliminary survey. About half of it was conducted before the conflict started, and half of it was after the conflict started. And what we saw was that inflation expectations in the year ahead, so the 12-month-ahead expectations that had been trending down, paused.So, they are no longer trending down. And, in its release, the University of Michigan noted that for the responses that were collected after the conflict started, inflation expectations did tick up. And interestingly, the strains were the most for the bottom income cohort. So, they saw a bigger uptick in inflation expectations. They actually also saw a bigger uptick in their unemployment expectations over the next year.Ariana Salvatore: So, Arunima, if I can ask, we've been talking a lot about the K-shape economy this year, right? So, consumption really being led by the upper; let's call it the upper income cohort. When we think about this translation to consumption, like you said, more of the stresses on the lower income side, how do you square that with the economic impact that you guys are expecting?Arunima Sinha: The way that I would square it is the longer it lasts and the greater the, sort of, uncertainty in asset markets – that might actually begin to weigh on the upper income consumer as well. So that might make some of those wealth effects less supportive, than what we have seen, over most of 2025. Just given where consumption has been running in terms of its pace.So not only might we see a bigger strain on the lower-income cohorts as we see this shock lasting longer, we might actually see some pressures not through the direct spending channel on gas, but really just, you know, how it's impacting their balance sheets.Ariana Salvatore: And that's a really important point because it also, to me, resonates with the concept of affordability, which has been a really key political topic for the past few months, I would say.And the way we're thinking about this is, like I mentioned, there are limited policy offsets that can be used to mitigate the potential increase in domestic gasoline prices. And that matters a lot for the midterm elections. Typically voters don't really rank foreign policy as a top issue when it comes to their choice for candidates – in midterm elections and elections in general.But once you see that feed through to, you know, inflation, cost of living, job expectations, that's when it starts to really matter for people. And what we've been saying, it's not a perfect rule of thumb, but looking back at the past few elections. If gasoline prices here in the U.S. are something like $3 a gallon, that tends to be pretty good for the incumbent party. [$]4 [a gallon], let's say it's a little bit more politically challenging. And [$]5 [a gallon], you know, is when you kind of get into that even more challenging territory for the administration and for Republicans in Congress.So again, not a perfect benchmark, but something that we'll be keeping an eye on too as this conflict evolves.Arunima Sinha: Ok! So, we'll be keeping an eye on how that oil disruption plays out and matters for the U.S. consumer.Ariana Salvatore: Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share thoughts on the market with a friend or colleague today. Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

Instead of being in a "constant state of reaction", treasuries should focus on adaptability to ensure change feels manageable as opposed to a continuous run of hurdles. Here, Mark Appelman, CEO Bank Mendes Gans (BMG) outlines his organisation's philosophy as it strives to assist clients to future-proof their treasury departments.

A new federal reporting rule could impact how real estate investors buy and transfer property. In this episode, Kathy Fettke sits down with asset protection attorney Clint Coons to break down the new FinCEN real estate reporting requirements that took effect March 1. The rule targets certain residential real estate transactions involving business entities and cash purchases, requiring detailed reporting to the U.S. Treasury. Clint explains which transactions are now reportable, what exemptions exist, and why many investors are reconsidering how they structure property ownership. He also discusses strategies investors are using to maintain privacy and asset protection, including the role of land trusts and LLCs. If you buy investment property, transfer property into an LLC, or purchase real estate with cash, this is an important update you won't want to miss.

Every Bitcoin transaction needs to be verified on the blockchain. There is no central authority that does this, but Bitcoin's blockchain has run uninterrupted since 2009 and now carries a market capitalisation of $1.3 trillion, roughly 4% of US GDP. Its original promise was more radical: that we do not need a trusted intermediary to spend money, write contracts, or create finance. In the fifth LTI report, published today, Yackolley Amoussou-Guenou, Bruno Biais, and Sara Tucci-Piergiovanni ask how much of that promise has held. Bruno talks to Tim Phillips about blockchain's potential, its flaws, and its future.  It is a Nash equilibrium: if you believe others will follow the rules, it is in your interest to follow them too. On that foundation Bitcoin's ledger has been running continuously for 16 years. Smart contracts, pioneered by Vitalik Buterin's Ethereum, extend the logic to financial agreements. Decentralised finance promised to cut out rent-seeking intermediaries. Cryptocurrencies can step in where banks are broken or currencies have collapsed; in Lebanon, when bank accounts were frozen and payments stopped, businesses switched to crypto and kept operating. But the technology's libertarian origins may need to be sacrificed: As Bruno says, without transparency there is no trust, and transparency in this market may require regulation.The research behind this episode:Amoussou-Guenou, Yackolley, Bruno Biais, and Sara Tucci-Piergiovanni. 2026. "Can Blockchain Decentralize Money, Contracts, and Finance?" LTI Report 5. CEPR and Long-Term Investors@UniTo. Freely available to download at cepr.org. To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Bruno Biais. 2025. "Can Blockchain Decentralize Money, Contracts, and Finance?" VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestBruno Biais is Professor of Finance at HEC Paris and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). His research spanning financial market microstructure, corporate finance, and the economics of blockchain has made him one of the leading economists working at the intersection of finance and decentralised technology. He has studied blockchain and cryptocurrency markets since their early years, and his theoretical models of consensus mechanisms and cryptocurrency valuation have shaped how economists understand the conditions under which decentralised systems can and cannot sustain themselves.Research cited in this episodeThe blockchain is a distributed ledger maintained by a network of nodes, each holding an identical copy of the record of ownership. When a transaction is submitted, all nodes verify it against the existing ledger and update their copies to reach consensus on the new state. No central authority manages this process; its stability rests entirely on the incentive structure built into the protocol.Nash equilibrium is a concept from game theory, named for the mathematician John Nash, describing a situation in which each participant's strategy is the best response to the strategies of all others; no individual has an incentive to deviate unilaterally. Biais and co-authors identify the Bitcoin protocol as a Nash equilibrium: if you believe others will follow the rules, it is in your own interest to follow them too. That self-reinforcing alignment of incentives, rather than goodwill or central enforcement, is why the blockchain has remained valid since 2009.Smart contracts are lines of code deposited on a blockchain that execute automatically when specified conditions are met: if X, then Y. Vitalik Buterin introduced them through the Ethereum platform, which offers a richer programming language than Bitcoin and allows users to hold collateral on-chain to guarantee the contract will pay out. Smart contracts underpin automated market makers, decentralised lending, and a wide range of financial applications that require no counterparty or intermediary to enforce the agreement.Oracles are third-party services that transmit data about real-world events to a blockchain, allowing smart contracts to respond to things that happen off-chain. A contract that pays out when a house burns, for example, requires an oracle to report that event to the network. Oracles introduce a point of fragility: the authenticity and accuracy of off-chain information must be established before the network accepts it, and that verification is more vulnerable to error and manipulation than the on-chain consensus mechanism itself.Front-running and miner extractable value (MEV) describe the practice by which technically sophisticated actors exploit the public visibility of pending transactions to extract profits at the expense of ordinary users. Because transactions on public blockchains are broadcast to all nodes before they are confirmed, an actor who sees a large pending purchase can execute the same trade first, drive the price up, and then sell at a profit once the original transaction goes through. The cost falls on the smaller trader. Biais notes that the barriers to entry and economies of scale in this activity have concentrated power in the hands of a small, technically skilled group, recreating the kind of intermediary rents that decentralised finance was designed to eliminate.Automated market makers are smart contracts that provide continuous liquidity for trading between two assets by holding reserves of both in a pool and setting prices according to the ratio of the reserves. A large purchase of one asset depletes that side of the pool and raises its price; a large sale depresses it. Automated market makers have become a central mechanism of decentralised finance, replacing the order-book systems used in traditional exchanges.Stablecoins are cryptocurrency tokens designed to maintain a fixed value relative to a conventional currency, typically the US dollar. They are issued by private entities that hold reserves intended to back the peg. Tether, the largest stablecoin by market capitalisation, holds its reserves in a mix of Treasury bills, Bitcoin, and precious metals; in 2021, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined Tether for misrepresenting those reserves and required it to disclose their composition, making this information publicly available for the first time. Dai is an algorithmically managed stablecoin that maintains its peg through over-collateralisation in cryptocurrency rather than conventional reserves.The Diamond-Dybvig model is a theoretical framework developed by Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig explaining why financial intermediaries that hold illiquid assets while issuing liquid claims are inherently vulnerable to runs. When enough depositors demand withdrawal simultaneously, the institution is forced to sell assets at a loss, making further withdrawals impossible and confirming the fears that triggered the run. Biais applies this logic to stablecoins: if enough holders attempt to redeem simultaneously, the issuer must sell its reserves in volume, driving down their price and potentially breaking the peg.Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) are digital tokens issued and managed by central banks, distinct from both commercial bank deposits and private stablecoins. Biais distinguishes two potential use cases: retail CBDCs, which would allow individuals to hold central bank money directly, and wholesale CBDCs, which would facilitate settlement between large financial institutions. He regards the wholesale application as the more promising; a wholesale CBDC could enable fast, low-cost atomic settlement of cross-currency transactions between banks under central bank oversight, a significant improvement on current interbank settlement systems.MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation) is the European Union's regulatory framework for crypto-asset service providers, which came fully into force in December 2024. It requires licensing for issuers and service providers operating within the EU and imposes disclosure, reserve, and conduct requirements intended to align the sector more closely with the standards applied in traditional financial markets.Hayek's currency competition refers to the argument by Friedrich Hayek that competition between privately issued currencies would discipline monetary policy: users would switch away from currencies managed irresponsibly, and that threat would encourage better central bank behaviour. Biais applies this argument to cryptocurrencies and stablecoins in countries where the domestic currency has been mismanaged. He cites Nigeria, where sharp depreciation of the naira was accompanied by rising crypto adoption; over the following period, Nigeria's central bank raised interest rates and created a more transparent foreign exchange market. Biais suggests, tentatively, that the competitive pressure from crypto alternatives may have contributed to that improvement.More VoxTalks EconomicsDo stablecoins threaten financial stability? Stablecoins are digital tokens, pegged to a fiat currency. What could possibly go wrong? For one type of stablecoin the answer is: plenty, according to Richard Portes. In coin we trust Crypto investors make a lot of noise, but who are they, and do they behave differently to other retail investors?Do cryptocurrencies matter? Can cryptocurrencies be useful? Not just for crypto bro speculators, but as a shield against the depreciation of the official currency if a government is determined to pursue inflationary policies.

Alonso Munoz previews this week's Fed meeting, discusses central bank moves around the globe, and the state of the stock market. He thinks volatility is creating opportunities in the market and is watching earnings very closely. He's heavily invested in technology and is looking to scoop up names like Meta Platforms (META) or Tesla (TSLA) on pullbacks. Alonso thinks investors should be watching Treasury moves and how they're putting “pressure on the system.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

What does it really take to build a global, state-of-the-art corporate treasury from the ground up - and then lead it through a global pandemic, digital transformation, and the rise of AI?In this returning guest episode, Julien Muet, Head of Corporate Finance & Treasury at TÜV Rheinland Group, shares how he built and transformed a global treasury function - and what seven years of leadership, crisis management, and modernization have taught him.Julien Muet leads the global corporate finance and treasury function at TÜV Rheinland Group, a multinational testing, inspection and certification organization operating across industries worldwide.Since stepping into the role, he has centralized governance, strengthened liquidity structures, modernized systems, and positioned treasury as a strategic partner to the business.Seven years after first joining the show, Julien returns to share how he built TÜV Rheinland Group's treasury function from scratch, navigated the COVID-19 liquidity crisis, and modernized operations through automation and AI.From securing liquidity during uncertainty to embedding technology and strengthening leadership culture, this episode is a practical look at what modern treasury transformation really requires.What We Cover in This Episode:Building and centralizing a global treasury functionDesigning and executing a multi-year treasury strategyStrengthening liquidity through revolving credit facilities and crisis financingLeading treasury through the COVID-19 pandemicImplementing automation and integrating treasury systemsApplying AI in treasury: bots, forecasting, and reportingLeadership evolution: humility, team stability, and hiring philosophyThe future of treasury and the skills professionals need to stay relevantYou can connect with Julien Muet on LinkedIn.---

In this episode of Treasury Beyond Borders, Rahul Badhwar (HSBC) provides valuable insights on how corporates can navigate uncertainty across rates and currency volatility.  Our guest explores practical strategies for risk management, stress-testing risk frameworks, and leveraging AI for thorough, reliable forecasting. Tune in to learn how treasurers can stay resilient, safeguard margins, and adapt to uncertainty in today's dynamic markets.

2. Joseph Ellis, *The Cause: The American Revolution and Its Discontents, 1773 to 1783*. King George III exerted unprecedented power by using £800,000 from the royal treasury to essentially purchase the interests of roughly 30% of Parliament. This financial influence allowed him to control Britishpolicy as a monarchical act, even while claiming to defend parliamentary authority. Benjamin Franklin initially sought to bridge the gap between the empire and the colonies by proposing a British Commonwealth model. However, after being publicly humiliated by the Privy Council, Franklin was radicalized, becoming an incalculable asset for the American cause as a wise and patient diplomatic negotiator. (2)

PREVIEW FOR LATER: John Hardieexamines how the Iran war affects Ukraine's defense and global oil markets. He details U.S. Treasury waivers on Russian oil sanctions intended to mitigate supply disruptions caused by the Strait of Hormuz closure. (3)UKRAINE

Welcome to The Daily Wrap Up, an in-depth investigatory show dedicated to bringing you the most relevant independent news, as we see it, from the last 24 hours (3/16/26). As always, take the information discussed in the video below and research it for yourself, and come to your own conclusions. Anyone telling you what the truth is, or claiming they have the answer, is likely leading you astray, for one reason or another. Stay Vigilant. !function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/u2q643"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");   Rumble("play", {"video":"v750yxu","div":"rumble_v750yxu"}); Source Links (In Chronological Order):  (7) The Last American Vagabond on X: "Yeah, that was called DOGE, and it turned out to be one huge bait & switch (as many of us warned at the time) to hide a massive AI data grab & the building out of a new surveillance grid. But sure, let's Trust-The-Plan™ guys, I am sure he's not lying THIS time. #TwoPartyIllusion" / X Exposing the Iran War Hype: Lessons from a One-Sided Debate with Naomi Wolf New Tab (21) More Perfect Union on X: "The estimated cost of the war against Iran has already surpassed $21,000,000,000." / X Shocker for Donald Trump as U.S. Treasury budget deficit off to one of worst starts in history. What Americans need to know - The Economic Times WSJ: Trump administration to announce coalition to escort ships through Strait of Hormuz | The Times of Israel Trump draws backlash for comment on Iran war: ‘Maybe we shouldn't even be there' | US-Israel war on Iran | The Guardian (21) Yousef Munayyer on X: "Imagine having the world's largest navy, by far, starting a war of choice that hurts the globe and could have been easily avoided, then asking your much smaller allies, who you have habitually insulted, to bail your ass out. Genius." / X (21) The Last American Vagabond on X: "Exactly what TLAV has been reporting the entire time, since, you know, we have eyes. All while the entirety of western MSM/MAM are reporting Hormuz is "CLOSED". Ask why that is. I will go more into it in the next couple hours in #TheDailyWrapUp. https://t.co/OOfBTyM4o7 https://t.co/MEQak5XNFS" / X HORMUZ STRAIT Ship Traffic Live Map U.S. allows Iranian oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz, says Bessent New Tab Behind the Curtain: Trump's escalation trap (21) The Last American Vagabond on X: "This what you get when you surround yourself with profiteering, incompetent, yes-men while listening to cartoons like Laura loomer." / X (21) The Last American Vagabond on X: "Now Trump says what Trump recently denied. How ridiculous all this is. American servicemen are dying to fight Israel's war, again, while Israel commits a multi-nation genocide with US government support. Anyone defending this is not fighting for American interests. #IsraelFirst" / X (19) Rapid Response 47 on X: ".@SecRubio: "The president made the very wise decision—we knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we https://t.co/Jp5rqpRH4T" / X Rubio walks back comments about Iran war after Trump contradicts him - YouTube (21) The Last American Vagabond on X: "If accurate, that's a "preemptive" attack, as they call it. Why is this Important? Because that would require Congressional approval, whereas a response to a genuinely "imminent" attack would be allowed the War Powers Act. Saying "we attacked first" makes this unequivocal." / X (21) The Kremlin on X: "REPORTER: Any evidence Iran was about to attack the United States ? WHITE HOUSE: The president had a feeling. REPORTER: The president launched a war on a feeling ? WHITE HOUSE: That is what Jared Kushner told the president and it was final. https://t.co/3lhb16Gu4E" / X (21)

After the war with Iran began, the dollar recorded its largest weekly advance since November 2024. But another traditional favorite destination for investors seeking safety, long term Treasury bonds, performed very different. In this week's report, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez asks the question, are long term Treasurys no longer a safe haven? The answer to this question has obvious implications for investment strategies.

Bitcoin steadies around $71K despite geopolitical jitters and macro uncertainty, bolstered by ETF inflows and stablecoin dominance (USDC nearing records). Institutional voices like Druckenmiller highlight crypto's long-term potential, while regulatory lights shine on tokenized assets and Asia licenses. Altcoins outperform modestly—watch Fed cues, oil developments, and continued ETF momentum.Sources:https://decrypt.co (Trump meme, Kraken SPAC, Druckenmiller, crypto ads, Eskom miners, Treasury sanctions)https://www.coindesk.com (BTC consolidation/geopolitics, submarine resilience, XRP gap, Circle overtake, ETF inflows)https://cointelegraph.com (BTC near $74K/bear debate, USDC cap/volume, BlackRock stance, ETH accumulation)https://coinmarketcap.com & https://www.coingecko.com (prices, market cap, movers, dominance) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mea Culpa welcomes back Reed Galen, co-founder of The Lincoln Project and an independent political strategist. Reed is a veteran public affairs and political analyst with more than 20 years of experience. Reed has been involved in politics, government, and business at the highest levels. Galen has spent more than a decade advising Fortune 50, 100, and 1000 companies in need of high-level counsel. In addition, Reed served as Deputy Campaign Manager for John McCain's presidential campaign and Deputy Campaign Manager for Arnold Schwarzenegger's successful 2006 re-election campaign. Galen also worked on both President George W. Bush's campaigns and served the Bush Administration at both the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Department of Homeland Security. Michael and Reed dig into the January the Ginni Thomas and the January 6th hearings, DeSantis, Trump, and the DOJ.

Today's Headlines: Two shootings in one day. An attacker rammed an explosives-filled truck into a Michigan synagogue and opened fire — nearly empty due to a half-day, so no casualties besides the shooter. The FBI called it targeted antisemitic violence. Hours later, a man who served 11 years for supporting ISIS killed one person and injured two in a classroom at Old Dominion University before being subdued by ROTC students. Both are being investigated as terrorism. On the war: Iran's new Supreme Leader Khamenei made his first public statement — no surrender, Strait of Hormuz stays shut, and he will avenge his entire family's deaths. Both US and Israeli intelligence now agree the regime won't fall anytime soon, so Israel has quietly downgraded its goal from regime change to degrading Iran's military. The USS Gerald Ford, which Trump sent from Venezuela to Iran with zero maintenance time, had a laundry room fire and has broken plumbing. The U.S. Treasury is borrowing $50 billion a week, adding a trillion to the deficit over five months. Total national debt: $38.9 trillion. Congress passed a bipartisan housing bill 89-10. Trump said "no one gives a fuck about housing." Florida passed a law requiring a passport or birth certificate to register to vote. Epstein's accountant testified for six hours, claimed he saw nothing, and named five men who paid Epstein: Les Wexner, Glen Dubin, Steven Sinofsky, Leon Black, and the Rothschild family — which accounted for maybe 30 seconds of testimony. The Pentagon banned photographers because Hegseth didn't like his pictures. The White House made a war hype video using NFL footage without consent. Trump has been gifting cabinet members Florsheim shoes in the wrong size. And finally, he gave Jake Paul his "complete and total endorsement" for no office, no race, and no discernible reason. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: AP News: Man who rammed his vehicle into Michigan synagogue was naturalized citizen from Lebanon, DHS says WaPo: Islamic State sympathizer opens fire at Old Dominion University, killing one Bloomberg: Bibi says no guarantee of Iran regime change WSJ: Israeli Officials Think Iran's Regime Isn't Likely to Fall Soon WSJ: U.S. Air Force Refueling Plane Crashes in Iraq WaPo: U.S. sailors injured in fire aboard aircraft carrier supporting Iran war NYT: Iran War Live Updates: U.S. Refueling Plane Crashes in Iraq, Military Says Fortune: The U.S. borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, finds the CBO ProPublica: Credit Bureaus Are Leaving More Mistakes on Frustrated Consumers' Reports Under Trump's CFPB The Guardian: Senate again fails to pass homeland security funding as department shutdown nears one month – live | US Congress AP News: Senate passes bipartisan housing bill to improve access and affordability Punchbowl: Trump dismisses housing fight in push for SAVE Act NBC News: Richard Kahn, Jeffrey Epstein's longtime accountant, gives closed-door testimony to House Oversight Committee NYT: Florida Republicans Pass Bill Requiring Proof of Citizenship to Vote WaPo: Pentagon bars photographers over ‘unflattering' Hegseth photos WaPo: Former NFL players decry White House video mixing big hits, airstrikes WSJ: Trump Is Obsessed With These $145 Shoes—and Won't Let Anyone Leave Without a Pair NYT: Trump Endorses Jake Paul, Who Isn't Running for Office Subscribe to the Betches News Room and join the Morning Announcements group chat. Go to: ⁠⁠⁠betchesnews.substack.com Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

────────────────────────────────────────00:02:08:23 — Guest Charles Goyette Joins to Analyze the Iran War NarrativeAuthor Charles Goyette joins the broadcast to examine the confusion surrounding the Iran conflict. Conflicting statements from governments and media outlets create an environment where propaganda overwhelms reliable information. ────────────────────────────────────────00:03:24:23 — Founders Designed War Powers to Prevent Executive AdventurismThe Constitution placed the authority to declare war in Congress so that leaders could not launch conflicts on personal impulse. Public debate and political accountability were intended to restrain unnecessary wars. ────────────────────────────────────────00:21:02:21 — Congress Avoids Responsibility for Authorizing WarLawmakers decline to hold a vote authorizing the conflict even as military operations continue. Political fear of electoral consequences discourages members of Congress from taking a public position. ────────────────────────────────────────00:26:57:01 — Foreign Creditors Retreat as U.S. Debt Concerns GrowMajor international lenders reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as confidence in the dollar weakens. Inflation fears and long-term fiscal instability push foreign governments to diversify reserves. ────────────────────────────────────────00:30:20:29 — Imperial Overstretch Erodes Economic StrengthEmpires often weaken when military expansion drains resources from productive economic activity. Growing defense spending accelerates the erosion of the economic base that originally created national power. ────────────────────────────────────────00:34:12:13 — Asymmetric Warfare Exposes Weakness of High-Tech MilitariesWar simulations demonstrate how decentralized forces using simple tactics can defeat technologically superior opponents. Low-cost communication methods and small mobile units undermine complex military systems. ────────────────────────────────────────00:41:07:10 — CIA-Backed Coup Installed the Shah and Shaped Iran's HostilityThe 1953 overthrow of Iran's elected government installed the Shah and empowered a brutal secret police apparatus. The regime's repression contributed directly to the revolutionary backlash decades later. ────────────────────────────────────────01:05:58:17 — Guest Eric Peters Joins to Discuss War Coverage BlackoutAutomotive journalist Eric Peters joins the broadcast to discuss the information blackout surrounding the Iran war. Restricted reporting and manipulated narratives make it difficult to determine what events on the battlefield are real. ────────────────────────────────────────01:06:56:04 — Propaganda and AI Media Obscure Reality of the WarGovernment messaging, recycled footage, and AI-generated media flood social platforms while authentic reporting is suppressed. The mix of fabricated visuals and censorship makes independent verification of battlefield events nearly impossible. ────────────────────────────────────────01:07:43:02 — Fuel Price Shock Emerges as Immediate Domestic Impact of WarGasoline prices jump sharply within days of the conflict escalating, while diesel prices climb even higher. Rising diesel costs threaten to drive up transportation expenses and increase the price of food and consumer goods nationwide. ────────────────────────────────────────01:21:58:17 — Escalation Risks Nuclear Weapons Use in the Iran ConflictContinued retaliation and the failure to achieve rapid victory raise fears that nuclear weapons could eventually be considered. Regional escalation threatens to draw additional countries into the conflict. ────────────────────────────────────────01:33:08:14 — Emergency Powers Create a De Facto “Emergency Branch” of GovernmentFrequent emergency declarations allow leaders to bypass constitutional processes and govern through extraordinary authority. The pattern is described as creating an unofficial fourth branch capable of ruling by decree. ──────────────────────────────────────── Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code KNIGHT Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-showOr you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.

────────────────────────────────────────00:02:08:23 — Guest Charles Goyette Joins to Analyze the Iran War NarrativeAuthor Charles Goyette joins the broadcast to examine the confusion surrounding the Iran conflict. Conflicting statements from governments and media outlets create an environment where propaganda overwhelms reliable information. ────────────────────────────────────────00:03:24:23 — Founders Designed War Powers to Prevent Executive AdventurismThe Constitution placed the authority to declare war in Congress so that leaders could not launch conflicts on personal impulse. Public debate and political accountability were intended to restrain unnecessary wars. ────────────────────────────────────────00:21:02:21 — Congress Avoids Responsibility for Authorizing WarLawmakers decline to hold a vote authorizing the conflict even as military operations continue. Political fear of electoral consequences discourages members of Congress from taking a public position. ────────────────────────────────────────00:26:57:01 — Foreign Creditors Retreat as U.S. Debt Concerns GrowMajor international lenders reduce holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds as confidence in the dollar weakens. Inflation fears and long-term fiscal instability push foreign governments to diversify reserves. ────────────────────────────────────────00:30:20:29 — Imperial Overstretch Erodes Economic StrengthEmpires often weaken when military expansion drains resources from productive economic activity. Growing defense spending accelerates the erosion of the economic base that originally created national power. ────────────────────────────────────────00:34:12:13 — Asymmetric Warfare Exposes Weakness of High-Tech MilitariesWar simulations demonstrate how decentralized forces using simple tactics can defeat technologically superior opponents. Low-cost communication methods and small mobile units undermine complex military systems. ────────────────────────────────────────00:41:07:10 — CIA-Backed Coup Installed the Shah and Shaped Iran's HostilityThe 1953 overthrow of Iran's elected government installed the Shah and empowered a brutal secret police apparatus. The regime's repression contributed directly to the revolutionary backlash decades later. ────────────────────────────────────────01:05:58:17 — Guest Eric Peters Joins to Discuss War Coverage BlackoutAutomotive journalist Eric Peters joins the broadcast to discuss the information blackout surrounding the Iran war. Restricted reporting and manipulated narratives make it difficult to determine what events on the battlefield are real. ────────────────────────────────────────01:06:56:04 — Propaganda and AI Media Obscure Reality of the WarGovernment messaging, recycled footage, and AI-generated media flood social platforms while authentic reporting is suppressed. The mix of fabricated visuals and censorship makes independent verification of battlefield events nearly impossible. ────────────────────────────────────────01:07:43:02 — Fuel Price Shock Emerges as Immediate Domestic Impact of WarGasoline prices jump sharply within days of the conflict escalating, while diesel prices climb even higher. Rising diesel costs threaten to drive up transportation expenses and increase the price of food and consumer goods nationwide. ────────────────────────────────────────01:21:58:17 — Escalation Risks Nuclear Weapons Use in the Iran ConflictContinued retaliation and the failure to achieve rapid victory raise fears that nuclear weapons could eventually be considered. Regional escalation threatens to draw additional countries into the conflict. ────────────────────────────────────────01:33:08:14 — Emergency Powers Create a De Facto “Emergency Branch” of GovernmentFrequent emergency declarations allow leaders to bypass constitutional processes and govern through extraordinary authority. The pattern is described as creating an unofficial fourth branch capable of ruling by decree. ──────────────────────────────────────── Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code KNIGHT Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-showOr you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

Norman gives his first talk on Dogen’s “Refrain From Unwholesome Action” as found in fascicle 11 in Kaz Tanahashi’s translation of the Shobogenzo, “Treasury of the True Dharma Eye: Zen Master Dogen’s Shobo Genzo.” Suggested donation: $7 https://bit.ly/donate-edz-online-teachings We cannot continue offering teachings online without it. Thank you! https://s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/edz.assets/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Dogens-_Refrain-from-Unwholesome-Action_-Talk-1.mp3  

Bitcoin rallies above $73K as geopolitical tensions ease and risk assets rebound, with altcoins like ETH, SOL, and DOGE posting stronger gains amid positive macro signals. Regulatory actions target prediction markets and CBDCs, while institutional products (BlackRock ETH ETF, Mastercard program) advance adoption. Enforcement hits illicit networks, and markets show broad upside—watch for continued oil/Treasury developments and Fed cues.Sources:https://decrypt.co (BTC weekly high, CFTC prediction markets, Aave trader loss, Europol freeze, Paraguay rules)https://www.coindesk.com (BTC outperformance, BlackRock ETH ETF, XRP breakout, SEC tokenized securities, Senate CBDC ban)https://cointelegraph.com (BTC funding negative, JPMorgan lawsuit, Mastercard program, BoE stablecoin input)https://coinmarketcap.com & https://www.coingecko.com (prices, market cap, movers, dominance) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Patricia and Christian talk to economist and author Professor John T Harvey about his latest book, "US business cycles from 1954-2020", his evergreen "Contending Perspectives In Economics", and solutions to an inherently unstable system. Please help sustain this podcast!  Patrons get early access to all episodes and patron-only episodes: https://www.patreon.com/MMTpodcast Relevant to this episode: Join John T. Harvey, Patricia Pino, Phil Armstrong and many more at Scotland's Festival of Economics (Edinburgh and online) 19th - 21st March 2026: https://www.scoteconfest.org/#learnmore Join the new MMT UK discord server to connect with others looking to promote MMT and ecological economics in the UK!: https://discord.gg/S3UbxFe4FR All our episodes with John T Harvey: https://www.patreon.com/posts/44371783 "US Business Cycles 1954–2020" by John T Harvey: https://www.cambridge.org/us/universitypress/subjects/economics/macroeconomics-and-monetary-economics/us-business-cycles-19542020-sources-symptoms-solutions  "Contending Perspectives in Economics" by John T Harvey: https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/contending-perspectives-in-economics-9781789900484.html Episode 148 - Pavlina Tcherneva: Why The Job Guarantee Is Core To Modern Monetary Theory: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-148-why-73211346 Quick read: Pavlina Tcherneva's Job Guarantee FAQ page: https://pavlina-tcherneva.net/job-guarantee-faq/ "Is exchange rate depreciation inflationary?" by Bill Mitchell: https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=32922   All our episodes in chronological order: https://www.patreon.com/posts/43111643 All our patron-only episodes: https://www.patreon.com/posts/57542767   JOIN PATRICIA'S MMT ACTIVIST NETWORK (MMT UK): https://actionnetwork.org/forms/activist-registration-form Join the MMT UK Discord server to connect with others looking to promote MMT and ecological economics in the UK!: https://discord.gg/S3UbxFe4FR   NEW! ANTI-AUSTERITY ECONOMICS ONE-DAY WORKSHOPS WITH PROFESSOR STEVEN HAIL IN 2026! Auckland Sat 18 April | Dunedin Sun 19 April | Brighton Sat 20 June | Stockholm Sat 27 June | Brussels Sun 28 June All details: https://modernmoneylab.org.au/events/    STUDY THE ECONOMICS OF SUSTAINABILITY! Details of Modern Money Lab's online graduate, postgraduate and standalone courses in economics are here: https://modernmoneylab.org.au/   MMT: THE MOVIE! "Finding The Money", a documentary by Maren Poitras featuring Stephanie Kelton is now available worldwide to rent or buy: https://findingthemoney.vhx.tv/products/finding-the-money Updates on worldwide screenings of "Finding The Money" can be found here: https://findingmoneyfilm.com/where-to-watch/ To arrange a screening of "Finding The Money", apply here: https://findingmoneyfilm.com/host-a-screening/   For an intro to MMT: Our first three episodes: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41742417 Episode 126 - Dirk Ehnts: How Banks Create Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62603318 Quick MMT reads: Warren's Mosler's MMT white paper: http://moslereconomics.com/mmt-white-paper/ Steven Hail's quick MMT explainer: https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-modern-monetary-theory-72095 Quick explanation of government debt and deficit: "Some Numbers Are Big. Let Me Help You Get Over It": https://christreilly.com/2020/02/17/some-numbers-are-big-let-me-help-you-get-over-it/ For a short, non-technical, free ebook explaining MMT, download Warren Mosler's "7 Deadly Innocent Frauds Of Economic Policy" here: http://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/powerpoints/7DIF.pdf Episodes on monetary operations:  Episode 20 - Warren Mosler: The MMT Money Story (part 1): https://www.patreon.com/posts/28004824 Episode 126 - Dirk Ehnts: How Banks Create Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62603318 Episode 13 - Steven Hail: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Banking, But Were Afraid To Ask: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41790887 Episode 43 - Sam Levey: Understanding Endogenous Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/35073683  Episode 84 - Andrew Berkeley, Richard Tye & Neil Wilson: An Accounting Model Of The UK Exchequer (Part 1): https://www.patreon.com/posts/46352183 Episode 86 - Andrew Berkeley, Richard Tye & Neil Wilson: An Accounting Model Of The UK Exchequer (Part 2): https://www.patreon.com/posts/46865929  For more on Quantitative Easing: Episode 59 - Warren Mosler: What Do Central Banks Do?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/39070023 Episode 143 - Paul Sheard: What Is Quantitative Easing?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/71589989?pr=true  Episodes on inflation: Episode 7: Steven Hail: Inflation, Price Shocks and Other Misunderstandings: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41780508 Episode 65 - Phil Armstrong: Understanding Inflation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/40672678 Episode 104 - John T Harvey: Inflation, Stagflation & Healing The Nation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/52207835 Episode 123 - Warren Mosler: Understanding The Price Level And Inflation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/59856379 Episode 128 - L. Randall Wray & Yeva Nersisyan: What's Causing Accelerating Inflation? Pandemic Or Policy Response?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/63776558 Our Job Guarantee episodes:  Episode 4 - Fadhel Kaboub: What is the Job Guarantee?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41742701 Episode 47 - Pavlina Tcherneva: Building Resilience - The Case For A Job Guarantee: https://www.patreon.com/posts/36034543 Episode 148 - Pavlina Tcherneva: Why The Job Guarantee Is Core To Modern Monetary Theory: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-148-why-73211346 Quick read: Pavlina Tcherneva's Job Guarantee FAQ page: https://pavlina-tcherneva.net/job-guarantee-faq/ More on government bonds (and "vigilantes"): Episode 30 - Steven Hail: Understanding Government Bonds (Part 1):https://www.patreon.com/posts/29621245 Episode 31 - Steven Hail: Understanding Government Bonds (Part 2): https://www.patreon.com/posts/29829500 Episode 143 - Paul Sheard: What Is Quantitative Easing?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/71589989?pr=true Episode 147 - Dirk Ehnts: Do Markets Control Our Politics?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-147-dirk-72906421 Episode 144 - Warren Mosler: The Natural Rate Of Interest Is Zero: https://www.patreon.com/posts/71966513 Episode 145 - John T Harvey: What Determines Currency Prices?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/72283811?pr=true More on bank runs banking regulation:  Episode 162 - Warren Mosler: Anatomy Of A Bank Run: https://www.patreon.com/posts/80157783?pr=true Episode 163 - L. Randall Wray: Breaking Banks - The Fed's Magical Monetarist Thinking Strikes Again: https://www.patreon.com/posts/80479169?pr=true Episode 165 - Robert Hockett: Sparking An Industrial Renewal By Building Banks Better: https://www.patreon.com/posts/81084983?pr=true MMT founder Warren Mosler's Proposals for the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Banking System: https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2010/02/warren-moslers-proposals-for-treasury.html MMT Events And Courses:  NEW! ANTI-AUSTERITY ECONOMICS ONE-DAY WORKSHOPS WITH PROFESSOR STEVEN HAIL IN 2026! Auckland Sat 18 April | Dunedin Sun 19 April | Brighton Sat 20 June | Stockholm Sat 27 June | Brussels Sun 28 June All details: https://modernmoneylab.org.au/events/  More information about Professor Bill Mitchell's MMTed project (free public online courses in MMT) here: http://www.mmted.org/ Details of Modern Money Lab's online graduate and postgraduate courses in MMT and real-world economics are here: https://modernmoneylab.org.au/ Order the Gower Initiative's "Modern Monetary Theory - Key Insights, Leading Thinkers": https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/modern-monetary-theory-9781802208085.html MMT Academic Resources compiled by The Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies: https://www.zotero.org/groups/2251544/mmt_academic_resources_compiledby_the_gower_initiative_for_modern_money_studies MMT scholarship compiled by New Economic Perspectives: http://neweconomicperspectives.org/mmt-scholarship A list of MMT-informed campaigns and organisations worldwide: https://www.patreon.com/posts/47900757 We are working towards full transcripts, but in the meantime, closed captions for all episodes are available on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEp_nGVTuMfBun2wiG-c0Ew/videos

In this week's episode of This Week in AML, Elliot Berman and John Byrne break down a wide-ranging set of developments shaping the financial crime landscape. They begin with the U.S. Treasury's three newly released national risk assessments—money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing—highlighting key findings on fraud trends, shell companies, NPO vulnerabilities, and geopolitical threats. Elliot and John also discuss emerging insights from the IRS on the value of CTRs, the White House's new cybersecurity strategy, upcoming AMLA public hearings in the EU, and AUSTRAC's expanded compulsory examination powers. Additional topics include recent enforcement actions targeting illicit Iranian oil networks, covert Russian vessel-protection teams, and FATF's updated consolidated assessment ratings. A must‑listen for compliance professionals looking to stay current in a rapidly shifting environment.

This week, an exclusive interview with Brien Lundin, President and CEO of Jefferson Financial, editor of the Gold Newsletter and the man behind the renowned New Orleans Investment Conference. Don't forget to also follow us on social media for more important precious metals updates! https://www.youtube.com/@Moneymetals | https://www.facebook.com/MoneyMetals | https://instagram.com/moneymetals/ | https://twitter.com/moneymetals | https://www.pinterest.com/moneymetals/

The increased supply of dollar-backed stablecoins has the potential for wide-ranging impacts, including support for the dollar and an infusion perhaps of demand for US Treasurys. It also is making US banks nervous. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the possibilities and the investment implications.

It's a spooky Friday the 13th on the Options Insider Radio Network! This week, the panel gathers to dissect a market that is being haunted by more than just superstitions. From explosive moves in energy to a bond market that is sending shockwaves through the 60/40 portfolio, the "murderers' row" of vol experts covers it all. On the Docket: The Energy "Memification": Mark Sebastian breaks down the "algo madness" in Crude Oil and why the move to $120 was a mechanical outlier. The Bond Market Cracks: Dr. Russell Rhoads and Jim Carroll discuss why "9 Vol" in the 10-year Treasury is the equivalent of a 40 VIX and what it means for interest rate expectations. VIX as a Passenger: Why the VIX is "yawning" at 27 despite the red across the screens. The Weekly Rundown: Dr. Rhoads reviews a litany of "crappy trades" and highlights a massive 20,000-lot mystery trade in the VIX weeklies. Crystal Ball: Will next week bring a "Jalapeño" spike or a "Vanilla" retreat? The team places their bets on the next VIX settlement. Featuring: Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider The Greasy Meatball: Mark Sebastian, Option Pit The Professor Dr. VIX: Dr. Russell Rhoads, IU Adjunct Professor The Vixologist: Jim Carroll, Ballast Rock Private Wealth

It's a spooky Friday the 13th on the Options Insider Radio Network! This week, the panel gathers to dissect a market that is being haunted by more than just superstitions. From explosive moves in energy to a bond market that is sending shockwaves through the 60/40 portfolio, the "murderers' row" of vol experts covers it all. On the Docket: The Energy "Memification": Mark Sebastian breaks down the "algo madness" in Crude Oil and why the move to $120 was a mechanical outlier. The Bond Market Cracks: Dr. Russell Rhoads and Jim Carroll discuss why "9 Vol" in the 10-year Treasury is the equivalent of a 40 VIX and what it means for interest rate expectations. VIX as a Passenger: Why the VIX is "yawning" at 27 despite the red across the screens. The Weekly Rundown: Dr. Rhoads reviews a litany of "crappy trades" and highlights a massive 20,000-lot mystery trade in the VIX weeklies. Crystal Ball: Will next week bring a "Jalapeño" spike or a "Vanilla" retreat? The team places their bets on the next VIX settlement. Featuring: Host: Mark Longo, The Options Insider The Greasy Meatball: Mark Sebastian, Option Pit The Professor Dr. VIX: Dr. Russell Rhoads, IU Adjunct Professor The Vixologist: Jim Carroll, Ballast Rock Private Wealth

APIs and AI are transforming how treasurers manage money and data. From instant payouts and live balances to AI-assisted onboarding, the pay-off is showing up in faster cycles, cleaner integrations, and better decisions.

Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the impact of upcoming regulatory changes on U.S. mortgage rates and home sales.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: It is March and there's some madness going on. I'm Jay Bacow, here with Jim Egan, noted Wahoo Wa fan. James Egan: Hey, it looks like Virginia's going to be back in the tournament this year, hoping for a three seed, looking like a four seed. It's the first year that my son is really excited about it. So, hoping we can win a few games. Jay Bacow: Let's hope they don't lose the first game and make him cry like you did a few years ago. But … Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today, with everything going on in the world, we thought it'd be prudent to discuss the U.S. mortgage and housing market. It's Thursday, March 12th at 10:30am in New York. James Egan: Jay, as you mentioned, there is a lot going on in markets right now, but hey, people need to live somewhere. And those somewheres remain pretty unaffordable. But this administration has been very focused on affordability, and we also have some updates on what is clearly the most exciting part of the housing and mortgage markets – regulation. What's going on there? Jay Bacow: Look, nothing gets me more excited than thinking about the regulatory outlook for the mortgage market. We've been focusing a lot on what's happening in D.C. with possible changes that could be helping out affordability, changes to the investor program, changes to the policy rate. But Michelle Bowman, who is the Vice Chair of Supervision, has been recently on the tape saying that we could get an update and a proposal for the Basel Endgame by the end of this month; and that proposal for the Basel Endgame is likely to make it easier for banks to hold loans on their balance sheet. It's going to give banks excess capital and the combination of these, along with some other changes that are going to be coming from the Fed, the FDIC and the OCC around: For instance, the GSIB surcharge that our banking analysts led by Manan Gosalia have spoken about – it's really going to help out the mortgage market in our view. James Egan: Alright, so freeing up capital, helping the mortgage market. When we think about the implications to affordability specifically, what do you think it means for mortgage rates? Jay Bacow: Right. So, it's important that [when] we think about the mortgage rate, we realize where it's coming from. The mortgage rate starts off with the level of Treasury rates, and then you add upon that a spread. And the spread is dependent among a number of different factors. But one of the biggest ones is just the demand. And one of the reasons why mortgage rates have been so high over the previous four years was (a) Treasury rates were high, but also the spread was wide. And we think one of the biggest reasons why the spread was wide is that the domestic banks, who are the largest asset type investor in mortgages – they own $3 trillion of mortgages – basically weren't buying them over the past four years. And one of the reasons they weren't buying was they didn't have the regulatory clarity. And so, if the banks come back, that will cause that spread to tighten, which will likely cause the mortgage rate to come down. That is presumably, Jim, good about affordability, right? James Egan: Yes. And I want to clarify, or at least emphasize, that affordability itself has been improving. Over the course of the past four to five months at this point, we've been close to, if not at the lowest mortgage rate we've seen in three years. And when we think about what that has practically done to the monthly principal and interest payment on homes purchased today. Like that monthly payment on the median priced home is down $150 over the past year. That's about a 7 percent decrease. When we lay in incomes – or when we layer in incomes to get into that actual affordability equation, we're at our most affordable place since the second quarter of 2022. So yes, big picture, this is still a challenge to affordability environment. But it's not as challenged as it's been over the past three years. Jay Bacow: All right, so affordability improving. It's still challenged though. What does that mean for home prices then? James Egan: So, when we think about the home price implication of mortgage rates coming down; of mortgage rates coming down in an environment where incomes are going up – we're thinking about demand for shelter, purchase volumes and supply of that shelter. And demand really has not reacted to the improved affordability environment. That's not unusual. Normally takes about 12 months for affordability improvement to pull through in terms of increased transaction volumes. But we do think that the lock-in effect that we've talked about in detail on this podcast in the past, that is going to play a role here. Mortgage rates end of February finally hit a five handle, really, for the first time in three years. They're back above that now with the volatility in the interest rate markets. But from 4 percent to 6 percent, mortgage rates is effectively an air pocket. We don't think you're going to get a lot of unlocking at these levels. So we think that transaction volumes will pick up. We're calling for 3 to 4 percent growth in purchase volumes this year. But they've been largely flat for two to three years at this point. And more importantly, any improvement in affordability that comes from a decrease in mortgage rates is going to lead to commensurately more supply alongside that growth in demand – which is going to keep home prices, specifically, very range bound here. The pace of growth is slowed to about 1.3 to 1.5 percent right now. We've been here for four or five months. We think we're pretty much going to stay here. We we're calling for 2 percent growth, so a little bit acceleration. But we think you're in a very range bound home price market. Jay Bacow: All right, so home prices range bound, affordability improved. But still has a little bit of room to go. Some possible tailwinds from the deregulatory path that will make homes being a little bit more affordable. Fair amount going on. Jim, always a pleasure speaking to you James Egan: And always great speaking to you too, Jay. And to all of our regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button!

In this episode we answer emails from TJ, John and Optimus Bill.  We discuss TJ's modified Golden Ratio portfolio and backtests, maximizing withdrawals with flexibility, ZROZ vs. TLT simulated leverage, gambling problems, intermediate accumulation to pay down a mortgage, and assorted allocations questions about mid-caps and other funds.We also talk about our Fairfax CASA fundraiser in our Queen Mary segment and a recent Catching Up to FI presentation at the end.Links:Links:Fairfax CASA Donation Page:  Donate - Fairfax CASATJ's Portfolio:  testfol.io/?s=gJEgezdqVdyPortfolio Charts Risk Parity style Accumulation Article:  Minimize Your Miss – Portfolio ChartsRisk Parity Chronicles ZROZ vs. TLT Analysis:  Bond Allocation Sizing - Google SheetsRisk Parity Chronicles KBWP Article:  The Search for a Low-Beta Equity Unicorn - by JustinCatching Up to FI Presentation:  Catching Up To FI Illinois/Wisconsin Meeting Presentation - YouTubeCatching Up to FI Presentation Slides:  The_Risk_Parity_Mission for Catching Up To FI.pdf - Google DriveCatching Up to FI Presentation Summary Video:  Catching Up To FI Risk Parity Portfolios Meeting and Presentation.mp4 - Google DriveBreathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:A listener writes from overseas with a situation that strips retirement down to the essentials: no pension, no Social Security “backup plan,” and a real need to get the portfolio right. We walk through his modified Golden Ratio style allocation using growth and value funds, small-cap value tilts, long-duration Treasury strips, gold, and alternatives like DBMF, then talk about what matters more than a pretty spreadsheet: whether you can live with the drawdowns and keep the plan steady for decades.From there we get practical about retirement withdrawals and the assumptions hiding underneath them. We explain why a 5.5% withdrawal rate can be realistic when you pair it with flexible rules like a floor and ceiling approach, and why “inflation” is not one number that applies to everyone. If you're living abroad, spending in another currency, or even willing to relocate, your personal inflation experience can diverge from CPI, which changes how you should think about risk, resilience, and what flexibility is worth.We also tackle the investor temptations that never seem to go away: debating ZROZ versus TLT, obsessing over duration ratios, and tinkering with allocations when the market gets loud. We share a simple constraint that helps many DIY investors stay sane: build a small sandbox for experiments so your core portfolio stays intact. We finish with an intermediate accumulation question about investing toward a future mortgage payoff, plus a clear framework for why splitting short and long Treasurys can be useful, and why international diversification often shows up as currency exposure in modern markets. Subscribe, share this with a friend who's rebuilding their portfolio, and leave a review with the withdrawal rate question you're trying to answer.Support the show

https://rhr.tv/stream Coinbase Allegedly Lobbying Against Bitcoin De Minimis Tax Exemptionhttps://x.com/martybent/status/2031770369871253664 COLDCARD Mk5 Hardware Wallet Announcementhttps://x.com/coldcardwallet/status/2031356036356149746 https://coldcard.com/docs/upgrade/ U.S. Treasury Acknowledges Legitimate Privacy Uses for Crypto Mixershttps://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/03/09/u-s-treasury-signals-shift-on-crypto-mixers-acknowledges-legitimate-privacy-uses DOJ Plans Retrial of Roman Storm in Tornado Cash Casehttps://x.com/amandatums/status/2031176790484374012 White House Account Run by Former Army Psychological Warfare Specialisthttps://x.com/allblackgat/status/2030124827831402863 Turkey | Crackdown on Currency Exchange Turkish officials have stepped up their enforcement of unregistered foreign currency exchanges in major cities and tourist areas. Since 2018, officials have suspended the operations of 859 unlicensed businesses. The crackdown comes as many people in Turkey increasingly seek other currencies to protect their savings from inflation and the long-term decline of the Turkish lira. FinancialFreedomReport.org Bitcoin Core Merges Cluster Mempool for Improved Efficiencyhttps://x.com/ducatstable/status/2030010651427631188 Zaprite API Resource for Bitcoin Payments Integrationhttps://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsg0ttfrf7s7l3quh2j6u7kkmtaxpvrxay4qgkvs27lk3vaa468n6ssqsvh2 Manent v1.0.0: Encrypted Nostr-Based Note-Taking App Launchhttps://primal.net/e/nevent1qqs96300c4kaq5jwtrfffhd4utvr3t6tp2n662vpc882g9445hqgqhcmne7ry Bitcoin 2026 Developer Workshop Proposal Repositoryhttps://github.com/BTCMedia/Bitcoin2026-DEV-TAKEOVER NATO Testing AI-Powered Cockroach Spy Droneshttps://x.com/rowancheung/status/2031765919018733721 Anthropic Subsidizing Claude Code Compute Costshttps://x.com/bearlyai/status/2030051147264970893 Sats Invaders: Bitcoin-Paid Arcade Shooting Gamehttps://satsinvaders.com Citadel Wire: High Signal News with Live Market Datahttps://citadelwire.com 3:54 - Woo doggie 4:06 - Dashboard 6:34 - 400 rips 7:44 - Coinbase 13:54 - Crazy world 25:54 - Mk5 28:44 - Treasury on mixers 35:19 - Tornado retrial 38:59 - White house psyop account 42:14 - HRF Story of the Week 47:09 - Boosts 52:00 - Software updates 54:34 - AI cockroaches 55:24 - Anthropic subsidy 57:24 - Odell's vibe code projects Shoutout to our sponsors: Coinkite https://coinkite.com/ Strike https://strike.me/ Stakwork https://stakwork.ai/ Salt of the Earth https://drinksote.com/rhr Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/marty Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://tftc.io/podcasts/ Follow Odell: Nostr https://primal.net/odell Newsletter https://discreetlog.com/ Podcast https://citadeldispatch.com/

In this opening episode of a short mini-series, host Jeff lays out his "Dark to Light" framework and explains how he arrived at his conclusions using pattern recognition, scripture, and decades of research. Expect archival audio and video clips — including material from Bill Cooper, a one-minute Treasury clip from Scott Besant, and an official White House video — that Jeff uses to illustrate how clandestine networks, intelligence agencies, and financial institutions interact behind the scenes. Topics covered include a simplified "power structure" pyramid (from the people and law enforcement up through corporations, nation-states, intelligence agencies, and central banks), the role of secret societies and ancient mystery traditions, and the host's view that the very top of the hierarchy operates through spiritual deception. Jeff ties the analysis to biblical passages (John 3:16; John 14:30; Ephesians 2; John 16:11; 2 Corinthians 4:4) and explains why faith and discernment matter amid geopolitical upheaval. The episode reviews recent geopolitical flashpoints — the 2026 Iran conflict, alleged regime-change tactics, the fallout of financial pressure campaigns, SWIFT and sanctions, BRICS vs. Western financial systems, and the emergence of new asset-backed currency proposals — and links those events to long-term strategies by intelligence agencies and central banking interests. Jeff also discusses the "false great awakening" narrative (including Q as a psychological operation) and the shifting global map he expects as a new financial and military order is established. You'll hear analysis of President Trump's 2017 executive order on financial regulation, claims about bringing the Federal Reserve under Treasury oversight, and Scott Besant's remarks on using economic pressure against Iran — all used to show how economic tools can pave the way for military action and systemic change. Practical takeaways include preparedness tips Jeff recommends (short-term supplies, EMP protection) and a reminder to discern media narratives that fall into left/right traps. The episode also features a short promotion for "Decoding the Power of Three," a video course offered at writeonyou.com that Jeff ties into his broader spiritual and historical thesis about divine truth and the Trinity. Overall, listeners should expect a mix of conspiracy analysis, faith-based interpretation, historical context, and calls for vigilance as global institutions and power structures undergo rapid change. Want to Understand and Explain Everything Biblically?  Click Here: Decoding the Power of Three: Understand and Explain Everything or go to www.rightonu.com and click learn more.  Thank you for Listening to Right on Radio. Prayerfully consider supporting Right on Radio. Click Here for all links, Right on Community ROC, Podcast web links, Freebies, Products (healing mushrooms, EMP Protection) Social media, courses and more... https://linktr.ee/RightonRadio Live Right in the Real World! We talk God and Politics, Faith Based Broadcast News, views, Opinions and Attitudes We are Your News Now. Keep the Faith

Markets remain under pressure as oil pushes toward $97 per barrel, Treasury yields climb, and mortgage rates move back above 6.25%.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong cover:• Day 13 of the Middle East conflict and continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz• Why Asian economies are feeling the strain first• What rising oil means for gas prices and inflation• How a higher CPI could impact Social Security COLA in 2027Plus: Are Americans actually saving enough for retirement? A look at new data — and why the headline may be more optimistic than reality.Stay informed with The Financial Exchange.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Republicans are looking for a populist win — something they can point to and say they're “looking out for the folks.” Enter the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, a massive federal housing package packed with grants, subsidies, and federal involvement in local zoning.The problem? It solves nothing — and may make the housing crisis worse.In this episode, we break down:• Why subsidizing housing always pushes prices higher• How federal grants and loan programs distort local markets• The real issue with corporate ownership of single-family homes• Why tax policy — not subsidies — is the real lever to discourage corporate home buying• Why Washington has no business dictating zoning in local communities• How new federal powers could let the Treasury reshape housing markets nationwide• And the real reason housing supply stays tight: bad incentives in the tax code

The yield curve may continue its steepening trend, with recent flattening just a cyclical retracement, Jason Granet, CIO of BNY says on this Macro Matter's episode of the FICC Focus podcast series. Granet joins co-hosts Ira Jersey and Will Hoffman of the Bloomberg Intelligence US Interest-Rate Strategy team to discuss the state of the economy, how BNY assesses the outlook and how it thinks about sizing risk. The focus turns to Federal Reserve policy, the Treasury yield curve and funding markets.  The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

The economy is shifting, interest rates are holding steady, and dentists everywhere are asking the same question. Is now the right time to grow? In this episode of the Art of Dental Finance and Management podcast, Art Wiederman sits down with Dan Larkin of Bank of America to break down exactly what is happening in the market and what it means for your practice.Dan shares insights on inflation trends, unemployment rates, consumer spending, and how those factors influence lending for dental professionals. While headlines may feel uncertain, the dental industry remains strong, with steady growth and historically low loan default rates. Interest rates are currently in the mid five percent range, and Dan explains how fixed rate dental loans are influenced more by the 10 year Treasury than short term Fed changes. The conversation also dives into what banks look for when approving loans, including credit scores, debt levels, and debt service coverage ratios. For dentists considering a startup, acquisition, expansion, or real estate purchase, preparation is key. Strong personal credit, manageable debt, clean financial records, and an early conversation with a dental specific lender can make all the difference. The message is clear. Capital is available, opportunities are strong, and with the right advisory team in place, 2026 could be a powerful year for growth in dentistry.--------------Looking for financial guidance from a team that truly understands dentistry? Bank of America Practice Solutions has spent over 25 years helping dentists nationwide achieve their goals with customized financing and expert support, whether you are just getting started or growing an established practice.Email dg.connect@bofa.com to connect with a specialist and get personalized financial solutions.--------------Stop feeling overwhelmed by the numbers. ADCPA member firms specialize exclusively in serving dentists to help you achieve financial success. Gain a strategic partner who understands industry benchmarks and overhead management so you can focus on clinical excellence.Find your expert: Visit https://adcpa.org/ to find a trusted dental CPA near you. Your numbers should work as hard as you do.--------------Detect what traditional diagnostics miss. Innerview uses FDA-cleared technology to measure internal tooth mobility, helping you identify cracks and loose restorations earlier before they become emergencies. The result is better treatment planning, fewer surprises, and stronger patient trust, all without disrupting your workflow.Book a demo at Innerview.ai and mention Art Wiederman to receive $250 off.

Bull markets don't last forever. When you're in the throes of one, it can feel like they do. But they don't, and at a certain point you have to sell.Gold bull markets can feel even more eternal. Not just because the metal itself is eternal, but because the story comes along that we are going back to a gold standard, or that the Great Purge, which many economists of the Austrian school say is inevitable after fifty years of fiat decadence, is finally upon us.I get that argument. But it is too neat, too deterministic. Real life is much more mucky.So today I want to consider a very important question, and I want to try and answer it honestly:Where are we in this bull market?Has gold already peaked? It's possible. The spike to $5,600/oz at the end of January had many of the hallmarks of a blow-off top.Or perhaps $5,600 was just a mid-cycle peak, such as we saw in 2006 or 1975-76 during previous bull markets.Or is this bull market still in its infancy?I'm going to study this bull market through every lens I can think of: price, time, valuation, participation, market structure, macro context and sentiment.My bias going in is that we are mid-cycle, as I argued in my Great Forecast last week. Let's see where I end up. 1. DurationThere have been two great gold bull markets since the end of the gold standard: 1971-1980 and 2001-2011. Both lasted nine to ten years.When did this one begin?It depends how you define it.You could take the bear-market low of $1,045 in late 2015. You could take the $1,160 retest in 2018. You could take 2019, when gold broke out of its multi-year base.Technical analysis is often in the eye of the beholder. Just like bull markets.You could even argue late 2022, when the current acceleration began.If you start in 2015, this bull market has already lasted ten years. That would put it right in line with the duration of previous cycles, and you could argue it is close to exhaustion.If you start in 2018 or 2019, there may be several years left to run.I favour 2018. Just as gold hit $250 in 1999, rallied, and then returned to roughly the same level in 2001 before the real bull market began, the 2018 low feels like the equivalent retest. Of course this is debatable.And there is always the possibility that this bull market lasts longer than previous ones.Verdict: mid- to late-cycle.2. Relative valuation vs other assetsOilWith gold at $5,200 and WTI crude around $87, it takes roughly 60 barrels of oil to buy one ounce of gold.Historically this ratio ranges between 6 and 30.The only time oil has been this cheap relative to gold was in the 2020 pandemic collapse, when oil went negative.My view: it's not so much that gold is expensive as that oil is cheap. Plus commodities inevitably get cheaper as we get better at producing them. (As long as you don't measure the price in fiat).Gold vs the S&P 500With the S&P around 6,765, it takes about 1.3 ounces of gold to buy one unit of the index.This ratio has been as high as 5 - at the peak of Dotcom in 2000, and the nadir of gold - and as low as 0.2 (during the depths of the 1930s and at the 1980 gold peak).Gold is therefore on the expensive side relative to equities, but not at historic extremes.This ratio could fall further if equities fall or gold rises.Gold vs US housingThe US housing market varies enormously by region - Beverely Hills is not Detroit, Miami Beach is not McDowell County - so national averages should be treated cautiously. But they still give a rough guide.We are now below the 2011 level and approaching 1980 territory in terms of how many ounces of gold buy a typical home.Pretty extreme.Overall verdict: late-cycle. Warning signal3. Institutional ownershipGold is still under-owned in institutional portfolios.Even after the recent rally, gold represents only a tiny fraction of global portfolio allocation compared with equities and bonds.Gold mining equities are even more neglected.Verdict: mid-cycle4. Central banksCentral bank buying slowed to 863 tonnes in 2025, down from record levels in 2024, but still well above the 2010-2021 average.However, the World Gold Council reported that central banks purchased only 5 tonnes in January, below the monthly average of 27 tonnes. I would not read too much into that. Much buying is reported with delays, and China in particular reveals little about its activity. The usual assumption is that central bank buying is an early or mid-cycle phenomenon. I am not entirely convinced. If the real driver of this bull market is de-dollarisation and reserve diversification amidst a wider geopolitical shift, then official buying could persist for years.Gold currently represents just under 30% of central bank reserves. The US dollar still accounts for roughly 56%.I don't think this bull market ends until gold sits north of 50% having overtaken the dollar itself.Question: is the war in Iran going to arrest of accelerate de-dollarisation? You know the answer. Verdict: mid-cycle5. Retail participationRetail demand is growing. 2025 saw record bar and coin demand. ETF inflows are rising, but they are not exploding. Mining companies are finally attracting interest again.Silver went briefly manic last month, which is not a healthy sign, but the episode is already unwinding.Verdict: mid-cycleBy the way, due to its senior currency status, the US dollar is going to preserve its purchasing power better than the pound, which is a car crash waiting to happen. I keep getting asked, “is it too late to buy gold?”. If you are in the UK, . We are turning into South Africa and the currency will go the same way. The 40% loss of purchasing power that the pound has seen since 2020 is not going to reverse. If anything it accelerates. Thus …If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.6. LeverageLeverage is difficult to measure precisely.You can look at: futures positioning on Comex, options activity, speculative flows into junior miners, retail spread betting and more. The short answer is this: gold is a crowded trade, but it is not a mania.If it were a mania, the geopolitical shock in Iran last week would have triggered violent liquidations. Instead gold held up remarkably well.Verdict: mid-cycle7. Mining equitiesMining stocks had an excellent 2025. Word is that PDAC last week (the world's largest mining conference), was the like of which had not been felt since 2011 and the last top. That is a warning sign.This chart shows the ratio of the XAU (large mining companies) to gold since 1988. On a relative basis the miners are still phenomenally under-owned, and we now have a text-book base, formed over 9-years, in place. If this ratio goes back to levels of the early 0 0s , miners will multiply many times over.But these declines began with the emergence of the ETFs and the many alternative ways to own gold without taking on individual company risk. The ratio does not have to go back 00s levels.Maybe. But that base is a thing of beauty.Typically the end of a gold bull market would coincide with massive rallies in junior miners, an exploration IPO boom and a merger-and-acquisition frenzy.We are seeing healthy signs of activity, but nothing like that yet.Verdict: mid-cycleI'm delighted to report that The Secret History of Gold - Myth, Money, Politics and Power, published by Penguin Life, comes out in the US next month. (The US version is published by Pegasus). Order yours now - via Barnes and Noble or Amazon8. The narrative - gold to $150,000?Gold got some coverage in publications like The Economist and the Financial Times last month, but the story is far from mainstream.Ask most people about de-dollarisation, Triffin's dilemma or central bank reserve diversification and you will get blank looks.However, some familiar late-cycle narratives are beginning to appear.One is that silver is being remonetised.It isn't.Silver may well be an important strategic metal, but its monetary role was as medium of exchange. That role is not coming back because we no longer use physical money. That function has been digitised.Gold, by contrast, retains its role as as store of value - a function that silver never had to anything like the same extent. Silver may have use as a speculative asset. It may well rise in price. It may even overshoot spectacularly. But it is not being remonetised. That will not happen, unless Eastenders turns into Mad Max.Another narrative that sometimes appears near major peaks is the US national debt relative to gold reserves. In 1980, headlines declared the US was “solvent again” because it could have used its gold to fully settled its debt.Today US debt is roughly $39 trillion. To settle that debt using America's 262 million ounces of gold, the gold price would need to be roughly $150,000 per ounce.When arguments like that start circulating, it means the narrative can't go much further and the cycle is close to exhaustion.We are not there yet.Verdict: mid-cycle9. Real yieldsLast but not least: real interest rates.This would be the 10-year Treasury yield minus inflation, or the 10-year TIPS yield.Gold bull markets tend to end when real yields rise sharply.In 1980, Paul Volcker pushed interest rates toward 20% and real yields surged. Gold then entered a twenty-year bear market. At the 2011 peak, real yields rose from deeply negative to positive and gold topped within months. From 2020–2022 real yields went negative again and gold surged, until they rose in 2022 and gold stalled.Today nominal yields are relatively high, but inflation remains elevated, the Fed is under pressure to ease (as are most central banks) and fiscal deficits are enormous.Real yields therefore sit around zero or slightly positive, depending on how they are measured. That is not restrictive enough to kill the gold bull market.The danger signal would be inflation falling sharply while nominal yields stay high, pushing real yields well above +2%. We are some distance from that.Verdict: mid-cycleIf you are interested in following the real yield argument, Charlie Morris is the man. He gets it better than anyone, and I heartily recommend you follow his work via his Atlas Pulse. Get your copy here - it's free.ConclusionIf gold continues rising it will pull silver and mining equities higher with it.The spike in silver last month to around $125 looked very much like a mid-cycle blow-off, and a period of consolidation is now both likely and healthy. Looking across all the indicators, most point toward a mid-cycle environment rather than a late-cycle one.What superb content. You really should upgrade.Duration and relative valuation raise some concerns, but these are just one or two of nine indicators. Everything else suggests the bull market has not yet reached its final, most speculative phase.In other words: this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.$8 to $10,000 by the end of the decade is a very real possibility.Thanks very much for being a subscriber to Flying Frisby.Until next time,DominicPS I have discussed gold largely in dollar terms, because the market is quoted in dollars. But if you are in the UK the case for owning gold has less to do with the dollar and far more to do with the pound. Sterling has already lost roughly 40% of its purchasing power since 2020, and that trend is not going to reverse. If anything it will accelerate. It's not just the ineptitude of successive governments, but unelected permablob (in this case the Treasury, the OBR, the Bank of England, the FCA et al) that actually runs the show. The system- if you can call it that - is the problem and it's not going to change. The incentives are to spend more, borrow more and debase the currency slowly over time. You cannot fix that system. But you can protect yourself from it. And that means owning some gold.DisclaimerI am not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) or any other regulatory body as a financial advisor. Therefore, any information provided in this newsletter does not constitute regulated financial advice. It is solely an expression of opinion. Small-cap stocks are inherently risky. Please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor, if you have any doubts. Remember, markets can both rise and fall, especially in the case of small and mid-cap stocks. I am not aware of your individual financial circumstances, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe

Our Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang discusses how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could make stocks and bonds move in the same direction, challenging one of the key principles of portfolio diversification.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Cross-Asset Strategist. Today: what happens if your main diversification strategy suddenly stops working because of oil price moves? It's Tuesday, March 10th, at 10am in New York. For decades, investors have relied on the idea that stocks and bonds return tend to move in opposite directions. When equities fall, bonds often rise, helping cushion portfolio losses. But that relationship isn't guaranteed. Between 2021 and 2023, coming out of the pandemic, stocks and bonds sold off together, and the traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio suffered its worst annual performance in nearly a century. Now, recent geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices are raising a familiar concern for investors: Could that uncertainty dynamic return? At first glance, oil prices may seem like a narrow commodity story. But in reality, they can shape the entire macroeconomic environment. The classic negative correlation between stocks and bonds depends on a fairly simple economic pattern: growth and inflation moving in the same direction. When economic growth accelerates, inflation often rises as well. In that environment, equities may perform well while bonds weaken. But when growth and inflation move in opposite directions, the relationship between stocks and bonds can flip. That's what happened coming out of the pandemic. Bond investors worried about rising inflation, while equity investors were worried about slowing growth. In that scenario, both asset classes' returns declined at the same time.A sustained oil price shock could potentially recreate those conditions. Higher oil prices can push up inflation while also weighing on economic activity – a combination that economists often refer to as stagflation. If markets begin to price in that kind of environment again, the relationship between stocks and bonds could shift back toward that less favorable regime. Despite recent volatility tied to tensions in the Middle East, the relationship between stocks and bonds today still largely reflects the traditional pattern. Overall, stock-bond returns correlation remains negative, meaning bonds can still help diversify equity risk. In fact, correlations between U.S. stocks and 2-year Treasury returns have been trending negative since 2024, and on a longer-term basis they are now extremely negative relative to the past three years. But the key point here is that not all bonds behave the same way. Many investors think of government bonds as a single asset class. But the maturity of the bond – how long it takes to repay – matters a lot for diversification. Shorter-dated bonds, such as 2-year U.S. Treasuries, have maintained stronger negative correlations with equities. Longer-dated bonds, however – particularly the 30-year Treasury – have behaved a bit differently. Their correlation with stocks has been stickier and less negative, partly because markets increasingly view longer-dated bonds as risky. As a result, the difference between how 2-year and 30-year Treasuries move relative to stocks has remained unusually wide for several years. In recent days oil prices have been rising -- linked in part to concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. That's pushing up yields at the front end of the Treasury curve, creating what's known as a bear-flattening. In other words, short-term interest rates are rising faster than long-term ones, reflecting markets placing more emphasis on inflation risks. And that brings us to the key questions for investors: Which risks will dominate from here – is it going to be higher inflation or slower growth? The answer could determine which assets provide better diversifications in the months ahead. So the takeaway is this: Higher oil prices and geopolitical risks could increase the chances that stocks and bonds move together again. But diversification isn't disappearing. It's just becoming more nuanced. For investors, the real question isn't whether bonds diversify portfolios. It's which bonds do. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

What two decades of flat demand means for a grid now expected to double in sizeThe US went from essentially zero load growth for twenty years to 3% national growth almost overnight. The supply chains, permitting pipelines, engineering workforce and regulatory processes were all calibrated for a different world. Bridget van Dorsten is joined by Tom Falcone, President of the Large Public Power Council, representing the 30 largest publicly owned utilities in the United States, collectively owning around 85% of public power assets and currently serving roughly 18% of all US data centre load. Tom explains what makes public power structurally different from investor-owned utilities: locally governed, not-for-profit, and built to minimise cost rather than earn a return on equity. That governance model turns out to matter a great deal when trillion-dollar hyperscalers come looking for power. Public power utilities have no financial incentive to favour their own assets over a customer's, and their local accountability makes deal-making faster and more direct. Bridget and Tom also work through the mechanics of how the industry is actually responding. Large-load tariffs are reshaping the interconnection queue, forcing hyperscalers to make long-term financial commitments rather than reserving capacity for free. About two thirds of speculative requests disappear once real commitments are required, which tells you something about the gap between announced demand and real demand. LPPC members are nonetheless planning to add around 60GW of new generation over the next ten years to meet load that is forecast to grow from 4GW to 18GW of data centres in their territories alone, in just five years. The episode also tackles private use rules, a Treasury regulation from 25 years ago that nobody expected to become a bottleneck for the AI era, the capacity factor realities that make peak-day power so much harder to deliver than annual energy, the nuclear question and why federal involvement is probably unavoidable if the US wants to build at scale, and where CCS can and cannot realistically be deployed.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The DOJ is seeking a second trial of Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm. “A jury already couldn't agree this was criminal,” Storm said on Monday. “But the SDNY prosecutors want to keep trying with the hope of getting a different answer.”00:00 Intro00:10 Who's next?00:40 DoJ vs Tornado Cash AGAIN!01:40 DeFi Defends Roman02:10 Convince Judge they're equal02:40 Treasury vs Mixers03:15 Why No Trump Pardon?04:00 Gary Gensler & SBF04:30 Prometheum05:00 Subpoena05:30 Republicans vs Pam05:50 Google trends06:10 Hearing coming06:30 Pam Bondi: “Dow is over 50,000!”07:30 Thousands of cases dismissed?08:00 Section 702 Silence08:45 Pam Bondi's response to Section 70209:45 DoJ lets Ticketmaster go10:00 Ticketmaster settlement was a major loss11:50 Elizabeth Warren: Corporate Pardons12:30 Kid Rock betrayal12:50 High Profile Firings analysis14:15 Why Pam Bondi?#Crypto #PamBondi #Bitcoin~FIRE Pam Bondi

Bringing order to financial chaos requires more than policies and processes.In this episode, Ritu Narula, SVP Finance and Treasurer at Hilco Global, shares how she has built centralized, high-performing treasury and finance teams across geographies and cultures by focusing on what actually works in decentralized organizations.Ritu Narula is the Senior Vice President of Finance and Treasurer at Hilco Global, a global financial services firm specializing in asset valuation, advisory, and monetization. With over 20 years of experience, including 18 years at Stericycle, Ritu has led treasury transformations across diverse sectors and geographies. From scaling global teams to managing multi-billion dollar deals, she brings a unique blend of hands-on knowledge and strategic leadership.In this candid conversation, Ritu walks us through her journey from a one-person treasury team to becoming a global finance leader. She shares actionable insights on building centralized treasury operations in decentralized businesses, balancing speed with controls, managing through stress, and adapting leadership styles across cultures.What We Cover in This Episode:Transitioning from a decentralized to a centralized treasury modelLeading treasury through rapid M&A activity and international expansionThe difference between public and private company treasury structuresBuilding trust and credibility in new roles and new culturesCreating shared services from scratch and integrating global operationsLessons in situational leadership and letting go of controlTreasury technology: from Excel chaos to automation and analyticsCultural nuances in global banking and regional operationsTraining and mentoring the next generation of finance professionalsYou can connect with Ritu Narula on LinkedIn.---

Treasury is emerging as one of the fastest-moving functions in enterprise AI adoption. In this episode, host Owen McDonald sits down with Leo Gil, Bottomline's treasury technology expert, to explore how AI is helping treasurers move beyond manual, back-office work and into more strategic decision-making roles. Packed with practical insights for treasury and finance leaders, discover how AI is already reshaping treasury today and what's coming next.

Russell Kaplan, co-founder of Cognition — the company behind Devin — and previously at Scale AI and Tesla, joins the podcast to discuss what “software abundance” could mean for government. Our conversation covers… Why government software is so broken — Despite spending over $100B annually on IT, critical systems at agencies like the Social Security Administration and U.S. Department of the Treasury still run on decades-old code that few engineers know how to modify. How two-year software projects become three-week ones — why AI agents are particularly good at the painful migration and modernization work engineers tend to avoid. What “software abundance” actually means — AI agents can handle the tedious work of switching systems 24/7, collapsing the switching costs, and forcing software vendors to compete on value rather than locking customers into outdated systems. AI for cybersecurity — From triaging massive vulnerability backlogs to automatically fixing CVEs, AI will be essential for defending critical infrastructure as attackers gain the same tools. The coming “post-coding” world — As models converge in capability, the key bottleneck shifts from writing code to understanding problems, reviewing systems, and deciding what should be built in the first place. Plus, the future of procurement in an AI world, fraud detection in government datasets, the DMV as a software problem, and why Kaplan thinks the real skill of the future is knowing which problems matter. Thanks so much to Cognition for sponsoring this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Crypto rebounds as Bitcoin demonstrates strength against oil-driven global volatility and geopolitical risks, bolstered by major corporate buys like MicroStrategy's $1.3B addition and ETF inflows. Tokenization advances (Nasdaq-Kraken collab) and stablecoin funding highlight growing TradFi integration, while privacy tools get nuanced regulatory nods. Markets up modestly—watch macro signals like oil reserves and Fed cues.Sources:https://decrypt.co (Florida stablecoin bill, Kazakhstan reserves, BTC outflows, etc.—some carryover but updated context)https://www.coindesk.com (BTC resilience, MicroStrategy buy, Nasdaq/Kraken, KAST funding, Treasury on mixers)https://cointelegraph.com (oil shocks, BTC technicals, ETF inflows, MicroStrategy)https://coinmarketcap.com & https://www.coingecko.com (prices, market cap, movers) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US futures are lower, but off their low points, with S&P down ~1.5%, following lower close on Friday, ending not far from worst levels, with major indices posting sharp weekly declines. US dollar is lower against Loonie but higher elsewhere. Bonds lower. Treasury yields higher across the board. Bund up ~3bps to 2.89% while Gilts little changed at 4.57%. Brent crude higher, peaked at $116/bbl; WTI also above $100/bbl. However, both well off earlier highs. Precious metals lower. Base metals mixed. Bitcoin lower. Brent crude forwards surged 18%, WTI up more than 20% in early Monday trading with both blends trading at $110/bl, first time crude prices traded near $100 since start of Covid pandemic. Sharp increase came after Israel attacked Iranian oil facilities, other middle east oil producers said they would curtail output, and as shipments through Strait of Hormuz ground to standstill. Companies Mentioned: KKR&Co., Agilent Technologies, Hims&Her Health

Linktree: ⁠⁠https://linktr.ee/Analytic⁠⁠Join The Normandy For Ad-Free NME, Additional Bonus Audio And Visual Content For All Things Nme+! Join Here:⁠⁠ ⁠⁠https://ow.ly/msoH50WCu0K⁠⁠The Nintendo Lawsuit Against U.S. Government Over Tariffs (2026) is heating up as Nintendo of America files suit on March 6, 2026, in the United States Court of International Trade. In this segment of Notorious Mass Effect, Analytic Dreamz dives into the high-profile case where Nintendo demands a full refund—with interest—of tariffs paid under now-invalidated policies imposed by the Trump administration starting February 1, 2025.The tariffs, enacted via executive orders under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), targeted imports from numerous countries, including key Nintendo manufacturing hubs like Vietnam and Cambodia. The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize such tariffs, deeming them unlawful and triggering over 380 similar corporate lawsuits (with thousands more including prior cases) from companies like Costco, Toyota, and GoPro seeking refunds on billions collected—estimates range from $166 billion to over $200 billion in total duties.Nintendo claims substantial harm from these "unlawful trade measures," citing impacts like delayed U.S. pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 (originally set to begin April 9, 2025, but postponed due to tariff uncertainty) and price hikes on the original Switch and some Switch 2 peripherals in 2025 to offset costs. The suit names agencies including the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Homeland Security, Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Commerce, and the U.S. Trade Representative, plus officials like Scott Bessent and Kristi Noem.Refunds face delays: CBP cites manpower shortages, outdated systems, and massive volume, though a new processing system is expected in about 45 days. A federal judge has ordered reimbursements to begin, but logistical hurdles persist amid broader industry fallout, including potential future pressures like global RAM shortages.Analytic Dreamz breaks down the timeline, Supreme Court ruling, Nintendo's financial arguments, and what refunds could mean for console pricing across gaming—potentially stabilizing or lowering costs for Switch 2, PlayStation, Xbox, and hardware in 2026–2027 if the wave of litigation succeeds.Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/analytic-dreamz-notorious-mass-effect/exclusive-contentPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

#695: The U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, pushing unemployment to 4.4 percent.That result contradicts a different report released two days earlier showing 63,000 jobs added, leaving economists trying to square the circle. Many agree that we're in a "low hire, low fire" jobs environment.We walk through several major economic stories using a three-layer framework: the household economy, markets and policy, and long-term forces shaping the future.First, the household layer. Hiring has become uneven across sectors. Health care and education previously drove much of the job growth, but layoffs in those areas now appear in the data.Job openings have also fallen to 6.54 million, the lowest level since the pandemic began. Workers are switching jobs less often, and the pay bump for job-hopping has shrunk.Mortgage rates recently crossed 6 percent, influenced in part by rising Treasury yields and concerns about inflation. Gas prices climbed about 26 cents per gallon in a week, partly due to tensions affecting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil supply.The episode also looks at household finances. Six percent of workers in Vanguard plans took hardship withdrawals from their 401(k)s in 2025, up from five percent the year before. That increase suggests some households are leaning on retirement savings to manage financial stress.At the end of the episode, economist Dr. Ben Zweig, CEO of Revelio Labs, joins us to unpack the conflicting employment reports and explain why the labor market may look weaker than expected. He also discusses why health care hiring may be slowing and how economists interpret mixed signals across multiple labor data sources. (0:00) February jobs shock(1:02) Three-layer economy framework(2:03) BLS job losses explained(3:12) ADP vs BLS data gap(4:30) Job openings decline(5:39) Layoffs and AI cuts(7:15) Mortgage rates near 6 percent(8:26) Gas price spike(10:02) Markets react to oil shock(16:00) Record 401k withdrawals(19:30) Asset owners vs nonowners gap(21:22) Supreme Court tariff ruling(23:31) AI costs collapse, usage surge(27:03) Fed reactions to jobs report(33:33) Economist Ben Zweig interview Share this episode with a friend, colleagues, and your job recruiter: https://affordanything.com/episode695 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Our Deputy Global Head of Research Michael Zezas and Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore assess the potential market outcomes of the Middle East conflict, weighing its possible duration and economic impact.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Morgan Stanley's Deputy Global Head of Research. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, the market reaction, and what investors should be watching for next. It's Wednesday, March 4th at 7:30am in San Francisco. Ariana Salvatore: And 10:30am in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, I'm in San Francisco at Morgan Stanley's TMT Conference, but obviously events in the Middle East have captured everyone's attention. There's uncertainty around the conflict and really important questions about how it affects all of us. And of course, markets have to discount all sorts of future uncertainty about very specific impacts – to financial asset prices, to commodity prices – and really look at it through that narrow lens.And so, Ariana, the administration has suggested that this conflict and this campaign could last a few weeks. But also it said it could continue as long as it takes. So, what are the clearest signals investors should watch for to gauge duration? Ariana Salvatore: For now, we're focused on three main indicators. First, I would say, and most important, is clarity around the objectives. The president and others in the administration have referenced things like eliminating Iran's missile arsenal, its navy and limiting proxy activity. Those goals are broader than the earlier focus on just the nuclear programs. Each objective, of course, implies a different timeline. A narrower objective likely means a shorter engagement. Broader ambitions, conversely, would extend it. So that's the first thing. Second, obviously extremely important is traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. We'd viewed a full closure as unlikely, given the economic consequences for Iran itself. But tanker flows have at least temporarily fallen close to zero, and that's significant because production across the region has not been impaired. This is not about oil fields going offline. It's about whether or not oil can actually move. If shipping lanes normalize within weeks, markets can recalibrate. However, if flows remain materially curtailed beyond five weeks, the risks rise meaningfully. Third, the frequency of strikes and proxy activity. Sustained or escalating engagement would suggest a longer conflict. Signs of diplomacy, on the other hand, might indicate de-escalation. Michael Zezas: Right. So, let's build on that and talk about oil. And our colleague, Martijn Rats has really laid this out with a lot of different scenarios. But what we're seeing right now is that when it comes to oil, this is really a shock to the transport of it, not necessarily a shock to its production. So, oil supply exists. The question is really – can it be delivered or not? So, if tanker flows normalize and the geopolitical risk premium fades, what Martijn is saying is that global oil prices could move back towards $60 to $65 a barrel. If the logistical disruption lasts four to five weeks, then prices maybe trade in the $75 to $80 range. And if disruption extends beyond five weeks and flows are materially constrained, then you could see a situation where oil prices have to rise towards $120 or $130 a barrel. And at that level, demand destruction is what becomes the balancing mechanism in setting price for oil. So, one signal to watch is longer dated oil prices. Early month contracts can spike during geopolitical stress, but a sustained move materially above $80 to $85 [per] barrel would likely require longer dated prices to move higher as well. And that might signal that markets believe the disruption is persistent and not temporary. Ariana, what about natural gas here? How does gas situation fit into the energy story? Ariana Salvatore: As of this recording, Qatar has halted liquified natural gas production putting roughly 20 percent of global supply at risk. Prices have, as you might expect, risen sharply, which likely reflects expectations of a relatively short disruption. If exports were to resume quickly, prices could retrace. But, of course, if the outage lasts longer, prices could move meaningfully higher. Again, duration of the conflict is really critical here. Michael Zezas: So, let's bring this back to the U.S. Ariana, how does this conflict feed into the domestic, political and economic backdrop? Ariana Salvatore: When we're thinking about the midterm elections later this year, the way we see it, the clearest transmission channel is gasoline prices. Polling shows a majority of Americans oppose military action related to Iran, but voters typically prioritize domestic issues: things like inflation, cost of living, affordability over foreign policy. However, there's a very clear caveat here. If oil prices stay elevated, gasoline prices rise, and that's where this becomes politically more salient. Michael Zezas: Right, and so our economists and our chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen has been all over this. And the way he assesses it is if oil prices remain about 10 percent higher than where they were before the conflict for several months, headline inflation would likely rise by 0.3 percent before dissipating. Historically, oil price shocks primarily affect headline inflation rather than underlying inflation. That's an important distinction that they point out. So maybe that could delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, even if policymakers ultimately look through the move. But if oil prices rise enough to weaken economic activity, particularly in the labor market or consumer spending, then our economists say the Fed could pivot toward easing despite elevated inflation. Ariana Salvatore: So, given that backdrop, what's the simple takeaway for investors in stocks or bonds? Michael Zezas: Right. So, I think we have to think about this in terms of duration of conflict and economic impact. So, if tanker flows normalize within a few weeks and oil prices move back towards that $60 to $65 range, then our economists are saying economic damage would be limited. And historically geopolitical events alone have not led to sustained volatility for U.S. equities. So, in that environment, our cross-asset team points out that stocks would likely remain supported. If instead, oil prices remain elevated long enough to push inflation higher and weigh on growth, the picture would change. A sharp and persistent rise in oil prices – that can pose a risk to the duration of the business cycle, and in that scenario, we'd expect stocks to struggle. Importantly, bonds may not provide the same diversification benefit if inflation remains sticky as a consequence of all of this. We could see stock and bond prices move in the same direction. That could challenge traditional balanced portfolios. Ariana Salvatore: And what are we seeing specifically in U.S. Treasury markets? Michael Zezas: So, as Matt Hornbach and our global macro strategy team have pointed out here, you've got two competing forces in the U.S. Treasury market. There's been some demand for safety, but investors are also focused on the risk that higher oil prices would lift inflation. So far, inflation concerns have taken precedence over growth concerns. How long that balance holds – that might depend on incoming data, especially labor market data. If you get weaker labor market data suggesting that growth could weaken, then you could see treasuries rally more meaningfully and yields come down. If you don't see that and inflation concerns dominate, then maybe you're not going to see yields come down as much. And bonds rally as much. Ariana Salvatore: So, stepping back, it seems like the key variables remain tanker traffic, longer dated oil prices and duration of the conflict itself. Michael Zezas: I think that's right. Ariana, thanks for speaking with me. Ariana Salvatore: Always a pleasure, Mike. Michael Zezas: And thanks to our listeners for joining us. We'll continue tracking developments and what they mean for markets. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

Phong Le is CEO of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), and David Bailey is CEO & Chairman of KindlyMD. This conversation was recorded live at Bitcoin Investor Week in New York. In this conversation, we discuss Strategy's evolution from a bitcoin holding company to a leveraged treasury and now a digital credit platform, including the launch of its perpetual preferred product designed to offer bitcoin exposure with lower volatility and yield. We also cover capital markets strategy, competition among bitcoin treasury companies, macro impacts, and bitcoin's continued integration into Wall Street and global finance.======================BitcoinIRA: Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Take 3 minutes to open your account & get connected to a team of IRA specialists that will guide you through every step of the process. Go to https://bitcoinira.com/pomp/ to earn up to $1,000 in rewards.======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.======================0:00 - Intro0:25 - Strategy's three phases of buying bitcoin7:04 - Bitcoin's graduation into Wall Street & traditional finance10:11 - Macro economy & Fed policy12:01 - Would they ever sell their bitcoin holdings?15:26 - Bitcoin, government policy, & political adoption19:52 - The responsibility of running a public bitcoin company26:35 - The future of bitcoin treasury models & consolidation