Podcasts about Treasury

Rachel Reeves has today delivered her much anticipated spring statement, her opportunity to address the looming energy crisis, the uncertainty in the Middle East and the crashing Labour market … unfortunately, she did none of the above.The Treasury promised that the spring statement was going to be boring – and at least it delivered on that pledge. For twenty painful minutes, Reeves rattled off her familiar lines about ‘stability' and Liz Truss. Is this another wasted opportunity for Labour and the Chancellor? What will it mean for her own ‘stability'?Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.Become a Spectator subscriber today to access this podcast without adverts. Go to spectator.co.uk/adfree to find out more.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

World War 3 is heating up and most people are missing the bigger strategic picture. What just went down in Iran and why anthropic got blacklisted by the Pentagon.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3NdZ2Sm In a Monday Dividend Cafe recorded before the market close, David Bahnsen discusses the market and energy implications of weekend U.S. military actions involving Iran, emphasizing the show is not for strategic or editorial war analysis. He notes futures opened down about 500 points but equities recovered to roughly flat, while oil rose about 6–9% to around $70 and U.S. LNG-related names moved on the prospect of greater export demand if Middle Eastern supply is disrupted. He highlights the absence of a traditional “flight to safety,” with Treasury yields higher across the curve (10-year up about 9 bps, 2-year up about 11 bps) and defensives lagging while energy and technology led. Bahnsen argues outcomes hinge on conflict duration, but elevated valuations and broader uncertainties (AI, private credit, tariffs, courts) raise risk and volatility. 00:00 Monday Market Setup 00:51 What This Show Covers 02:21 Futures Drop Then Recover 03:26 Oil Moves And LNG Angle 04:50 Conflict Duration Scenarios 06:47 Why Markets Stay Calm 08:16 Bonds And Sector Signals 10:09 Valuations And Uncertainty 11:59 Closing Thoughts And Prayer Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Why did the academic elite fail to see Bitcoin coming? Dr. Adam Back (@adam3us), the inventor of Hashcash, explains that professors were too obsessed with centralized bank models to conceive of a proof of work system that replaces central authority. While the ivory tower refined flawed systems, cypherpunks built a reality that does not require a middleman.Adam's journey started on the front lines of digital privacy, using his PhD as a license to hack. He laid the foundation for electronic cash by prioritizing sovereign rights. As the founder of Blockstream, he is an OG who never sold out, famously moving past shitcoin bribes to protect his ethical reputation.We tackle the reality of scaling. Adam argues that while Bitcoin is hard to change by design, the lightning network and sidechains allow for high-speed trade without risking the base layer. This modular approach lets Bitcoin evolve into a global financial layer while staying decentralized, proving the skeptics wrong one block at a time.In El Salvador, the government rejected shitcoin pitches to double down on Bitcoin. Adam notes this homegrown success could see the country rival major powers like Germany. It is a blueprint for using sound money to leapfrog the legacy financial system.Adam is now focused on filling innovation gaps from privacy to treasury reserves. The mission to replace fiat is just beginning. Subscribe and comment. Is El Salvador the next Singapore?—Bitcoin Beach TeamConnect and Learn more about Adam BackX: https://x.com/adam3usBlockstream X: https://x.com/BlockstreamHashcash Web: http://www.hashcash.org/Cypherspace Web: http://www.cypherspace.org/adam/Blockstream web: https://blockstream.com/Github: https://github.com/BlockstreamThe Liquid Network: https://liquid.net/Blockstream Jade: https://blockstream.com/jade/   Support and follow Bitcoin Beach:X: https://www.twitter.com/BitcoinBeach IG: https://www.instagram.com/bitcoinbeach_sv TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@livefrombitcoinbeach Web: https://www.bitcoinbeach.com Browse through this quick guide to learn more about the episode:00:00 Intro01:33 How Bitcoin achieves decentralized trust without banks. 04:49 Has institutional Bitcoin ruined the cypherpunk mission? 10:48 How Adam Back spotted and rejected shitcoin scams. 12:43 Is Tether (USDT) a systemic risk to the Bitcoin ecosystem? 15:44 Why El Salvador succeeded where other nations failed. 20:32 Scaling Bitcoin via Blockstream, sidechains, and Lightning. 25:50 Adam Back on the 100-year mission for sound money.Live From Bitcoin BeachLive From Bitcoin Beach

Eric Criscuolo, NYSE Market Strategist, covers a week where AI‑driven disruption fears and new tariff moves sparked volatility across tech and financials. Markets steadied after Monday's drop, with software rebounding and the S&P holding its 250‑point range. Nvidia delivered strong results but still slipped, underscoring shifting momentum between hardware and software. Defensive sectors led as crude softened, crypto wavered, and Treasury yields dipped. With major earnings, labor data, and global indicators ahead, markets enter March navigating tight ranges and persistent AI uncertainty.

Last Friday, the Supreme Court ruled that the President is not authorized to impose tariffs, affirming that Congress alone has the power to tax. Entrepreneur and pastor Mark Franco joins Russell, Mike, and Clarissa to discuss the future of tariffs. Then, President Trump suggests that he would launch a strike on Iran if they do not back down from their nuclear weapons program. Jonathan Schanzer stops by to share about Iranian protests and possible regime change. Finally, President Trump's annual State of the Union address lasted a record breaking 1 hour and 48 minutes. Mike, Clarissa and Harvest Prude recap the highlights. REFERENCED IN THE EPISODE: Trump's SOTU Heralded a Revival. The Data Is Mixed. - Harvest Prude ABOUT THE GUESTS: Mark Franco is the president and CEO at MXD Process, a company that oversees the manufacturing and supply of industrial process equipment, and serves as the managing partner at Soterra Capital. Prior to that, he was the principal at Franconia Enterprises and president at Unified Manufacturing and Design, LLC. Mark is a pastor at Sojourn Community Church. Jonathan Schanzer is senior vice president for research at Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), and he is also on the leadership team of FDD's Center on Economic and Financial Power. He previously worked as a terrorism finance analyst at the US Department of the Treasury. Schanzer has appeared on CNN, Fox News, Al-Arabiya, and Al-Jazeera. Harvest Prude is Christianity Today's national political correspondent and a congressional reporter based in Washington, DC. She is a former reporter for The Dispatch and World, having served there as political reporter for their Washington bureau. GO DEEPER WITH THE BULLETIN: Join the conversation at our Substack. Find us on YouTube. Rate and review the show in your podcast app of choice. ABOUT THE BULLETIN: The Bulletin is a twice-weekly politics and current events show from Christianity Today moderated by Clarissa Moll, with senior commentary from Russell Moore (Christianity Today's editor-at-large and columnist) and Mike Cosper (senior contributor). Each week, the show explores current events and breaking news and shares a Christian perspective on issues that are shaping our world. We also offer special one-on-one conversations with writers, artists, and thought leaders whose impact on the world brings important significance to a Christian worldview, like Bono, Sharon McMahon, Harrison Scott Key, Frank Bruni, and more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After newly released government documents and emails revealed a longstanding personal and professional relationship between Larry Summers and Epstein, Summers announced he will step down from his faculty position at Harvard University at the end of the 2025-26 academic year. Harvard confirmed that his decision comes amid an ongoing university review of records related to Epstein's connections with faculty and leadership, which showed Summers maintained frequent communication with Epstein over several years, including correspondence about personal matters and introductions involving women. Summers has already been on leave since late 2025 and relinquished leadership roles such as co-director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government; he also resigned from high-profile board positions, including at OpenAI, as the controversy expanded.The fallout from the Epstein files has dramatically shifted Summers's standing in academia and public life. Although there is no evidence he was involved in criminal activity, the release of emails and other documents showing close ties to Epstein — including visits, frequent exchanges, and his name appearing repeatedly in the files — sparked institutional and public pressure. Summers, a former U.S. Treasury secretary and one-time Harvard president, expressed that his decision was difficult and framed it as an opportunity to focus on independent research, but his resignation underscores the broader repercussions that association with Epstein continues to have for powerful figures across academic and professional spheres.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:Larry Summers to resign as Harvard University professor amid Epstein fallout

RenMac breaks down why light tax refunds and narrow consumption growth are challenging the bullish economic narrative, even as AI capex continues to carry investment. The team explores falling Treasury yields despite “good” data, extreme tech momentum reminiscent of 2000, and cracks forming beneath the surface in software and breadth. They also cover late-cycle sector rotation into energy and defensives, housing and AI power politics in Washington, and what next week's ISM, jobs, and retail sales could mean for growth expectations and market leadership.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at the latest partnerships and Agency profit drivers from around mortgage industry. Plus, Robbie sits down with MakeMyMove's Evan Hock for a discussion on new data that shows that many financially stable, middle-income households are being priced out of homeownership in major metros notby monthly affordability but by lack of access, prompting relocations to smaller regional hubs where similar housing costs unlock ownership, stability, and better quality of life. And we close by looking at the end of this month's auction slate from the U.S. Treasury.This week's podcasts are sponsored by FirstClose. FirstClose Equity gets you to closings faster by empowering borrowers with vital property decisioning data. It is the only end-to-end digital HELOC & HEL solution built specifically for home equity.

Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti react to a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report that extended the market selloff and pushed investors to reassess the path of inflation and interest rates. With the 10-year Treasury dipping below 4% and mortgage rates nearing 6%, they debate whether falling rates can revive housing — or if broader growth concerns are the bigger story.The hour also features CNBC's Michael Santoli on the AI-driven market rotation and what could reignite momentum in big tech, plus analysis of Paramount's blockbuster acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, Berkshire Hathaway's new stake in The New York Times, and renewed concerns about risks building in private credit markets.

When DEME began transforming its treasury operations in 2017, it had a clear objective: to create a centralised, robust function capable of supporting a growing, globally active business. For this special edition of TreasuryCast, Ben Poole (TMI) sits down with Geert Wouters, the company's Head of Structured Finance, to discuss how the team has tackled everything from forecasting blind spots to embedding ESG in financing, positioning the department as a strategic partner that contributes meaningfully to the company's performance, resilience, and growth.

This week, James breaks down stock market news and events this week. Nvidia sank after strong earnings, the Dow dropped over 500 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also moved lower. Inflation data (PPI and Core PPI) came in hotter than expected. One of the biggest takeaways has nothing to do with headlines. It has to do with fees. James shares that he has now seen four separate portfolios charging a 2% advisor fee this week alone, and that is before platform fees, 12b1 fees, planning fees, mutual fund fees, and transaction costs are even added in. If your money is sitting in basic ETFs or mutual funds, you need to know exactly what you are paying and whether your advisor is truly earning it.He also covers Nvidia's post-earnings drop, why earnings and short-term share price do not always move together, the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 3.97%, OpenAI's massive new valuation, Netflix moving higher, CoreWeave's sharp decline, and the broader fear hanging over markets from inflation, geopolitics, and uncertainty.The bigger message is this: fear is always present. Inflation, rumors of war, political uncertainty, and market volatility will never fully go away. But history shows that downturns do not last forever, and disciplined investors who stay focused tend to be rewarded over time.In this video:• Why 2% advisor fees can quietly destroy long-term returns• The real all-in cost investors need to ask about• Why Nvidia falling after great earnings is not unusual• Key market moves from this past week• Why fear keeps many people from building wealth• Why long-term market history still mattersAll Information is educational in its intent and distribution! Please do not consider this personal financial advice. We believe all clients have unique situations and thus require unique advice.

Trump isn't just weaponizing the DOJ, he's dome the same at the Treasury Department, and now a senior leader and huge Trump donor who has objected to massive spying by Treasury on the American people has quit, calling attention to the use of “Geographic Target Orders” by Treasury in violation of the 4th Amendment. Popok explains that the spying scandal coming to light may explain why Trump was so hot and bothered about “Somali fraud” during the SOTU. Soul: Go to https://GetSoul.com and use code LEGALAF to get 30% OFF your order! Visit https://meidasplus.com for more! Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast Cult Conversations: The Influence Continuum with Dr. Steve Hassan: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-influence-continuum-with-dr-steven-hassan The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show The Ken Harbaugh Show: https://meidasnews.com/tag/the-ken-harbaugh-show Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In a recent episode of the award-winning Consumer Finance Monitor podcast, Alan Kaplinsky was joined by Nick Bourke, Kate Griffin, and Ballard Spahr partner Joseph Schuster to discuss a groundbreaking new report from the Aspen Institute Financial Security Program: United We Stand: A National Strategy to Prevent Scams. The episode builds on Nick and Kate's prior appearance on the podcast last July, when the report was still in development. Now finalized, the report offers one of the most comprehensive frameworks to date for addressing what has become a systemic threat to American households and the broader financial system. The Scope of the Problem: A Systemic Threat Frauds and scams are no longer isolated consumer protection issues. According to the report, U.S. households are losing an estimated $196 billion annually to scams — roughly $1 billion every couple of days. One in five American adults reports having lost money to an online scam. As Nick Bourke explained, today's scams are: ·                 Technology-enabled ·                 Highly organized and industrialized ·                 Often operated by transnational criminal organizations ·                 Accelerating due to AI and faster payment systems The so-called scam "lifecycle" includes four stages: 1.     Lead – Hooking the victim 2.     Deceive – Building trust (often through impersonation or relationship-building) 3.     Bleed – Extracting funds 4.     Clean – Laundering proceeds, often through cryptocurrency or offshore channels Different sectors see only fragments of this lifecycle; social media platforms may see the "lead," financial institutions the "bleed," and law enforcement the "clean." That fragmentation allows criminals to scale operations while defenders remain siloed. Why Scams Are Rising Despite Heavy Investment As Kate Griffin noted, industry and government are investing heavily in prevention. Yet scams continue to grow. Why? ·                 Fragmentation across sectors: No single actor sees the entire attack sequence. ·                 Outdated reporting infrastructure: Federal systems at agencies like the FBI and FTC remain manual and technologically antiquated. ·                 Regulatory uncertainty: Financial institutions and technology platforms face unclear expectations about what data they can use and share. ·                 Speed of modern payments: Faster money movement means faster losses. Joseph Schuster emphasized that many financial institutions are strongly incentivized to prevent fraud as they often bear reputational and financial risk when scams succeed. But legal ambiguity, especially under statutes like the Fair Credit Reporting Act, can chill data-sharing and innovation. Core Recommendations from the Aspen Report The report outlines both high-level national reforms and granular operational improvements with more than 180 specific ideas. 1. Elevate Scam Prevention to a National Priority The report calls for: ·                 A designated federal lead (or "czar") to coordinate strategy ·                 A whole-of-government approach ·                 Clear national goals and metrics Without centralized leadership, enforcement and regulatory actions remain fragmented.  2. Modernize Law Enforcement Reporting Systems Federal reporting portals, including Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs), the FBI's complaint systems, and the FTC's databases, require modernization. The report recommends: ·                 Streamlined, automated reporting ·                 Backend data interoperability across agencies ·                 Advanced analytics and AI tools for enforcement 3. Establish Clear Duties to Act Paired with Safe Harbors One of the most important themes discussed was the need for: ·                 Clear expectations for banks, telecom companies, and digital platforms ·                 Safe harbors that protect companies when sharing scam intelligence in good faith Countries like Australia have already codified such frameworks. The U.S. has yet to establish similarly coordinated standards. 4. Build a Cross-Sector Information-Sharing Ecosystem Effective scam prevention requires: ·                 Exchange of scam indicators (malicious URLs, compromised phone numbers, device patterns) ·                 Interoperable information-sharing platforms ·                 Privacy-preserving architecture ·                 Legal clarity to mitigate antitrust and consumer reporting concerns Joseph noted that industry appetite for collaboration is strong but clarity and guardrails are essential. 5. Consider a U.S. National Anti-Scam Center The report explores the idea of a centralized "front door", potentially something like stopscams.gov, that would: ·                 Serve as a national reporting hub ·                 Provide victim resources ·                 Facilitate coordination among law enforcement ·                 Support public education campaigns Social Media and Platform Responsibility The discussion also addressed the evolving role of digital platforms. Scam activity frequently originates through: ·                 Paid advertisements ·                 Dating applications ·                 Direct messaging ·                 Fake investment websites Compared to banks, social media companies operate within a less clearly defined regulatory structure. Courts are increasingly developing theories of "platform liability," but statutory clarity is lacking. The report urges policymakers to define reasonable expectations for platforms — paired with safe harbors and practical tools that empower prevention rather than merely assign blame. What Happens Next? The key question: who implements this strategy? Kate Griffin emphasized that this is a whole-of-society problem requiring coordinated action by: ·                 Federal leadership ·                 Congress ·                 Financial institutions ·                 Telecom and digital platforms ·                 Law enforcement ·                 Civil society There have been encouraging developments, including: ·                 Treasury and State Department sanctions targeting transnational scam networks ·                 A joint DOJ–FBI–Secret Service initiative targeting Southeast Asian scam operations o   But much more remains to be done. Nick Bourke suggested that, one year from now, real success would include: ·                 A designated federal anti-scam lead ·                 A congressional commission ·                 Measurable national prevention goals ·                 Corporate adoption of formalized anti-scam strategies Joseph Schuster added that industry innovation is ongoing, particularly in artificial intelligence, biometrics, and authentication, but warned that fragmented state-level regulation could complicate progress. Key Takeaways Alan Kaplinsky closed the episode with several important observations: ·                 Fraud and scams are now a systemic threat, not a niche compliance issue. ·                 Prevention, not just reimbursement, must be the organizing principle. ·                 Coordination matters as much as authority. ·                 Good-faith companies need regulatory clarity, not just enforcement pressure. ·                 Reducing scams strengthens trust in the U.S. financial system and digital economy. The Aspen report reframes the debate. Rather than assigning blame, it calls for aligned incentives, shared responsibility, and coordinated national action. If the title of the report, United We Stand, becomes reality, the United States may finally begin to bend the curve on one of the most costly and fast-growing threats facing consumers today. For more insights on consumer financial services developments, visit Ballard Spahr's Consumer Finance Monitor blog and explore the full Aspen Institute report here. Consumer Finance Monitor is hosted by Alan Kaplinsky, Senior Counsel at Ballard Spahr, and the founder and former chair of the firm's Consumer Financial Services Group. We encourage listeners to subscribe to the podcast on their preferred platform for weekly insights into developments in the consumer finance industry.

After newly released government documents and emails revealed a longstanding personal and professional relationship between Larry Summers and Epstein, Summers announced he will step down from his faculty position at Harvard University at the end of the 2025-26 academic year. Harvard confirmed that his decision comes amid an ongoing university review of records related to Epstein's connections with faculty and leadership, which showed Summers maintained frequent communication with Epstein over several years, including correspondence about personal matters and introductions involving women. Summers has already been on leave since late 2025 and relinquished leadership roles such as co-director of the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government; he also resigned from high-profile board positions, including at OpenAI, as the controversy expanded.The fallout from the Epstein files has dramatically shifted Summers's standing in academia and public life. Although there is no evidence he was involved in criminal activity, the release of emails and other documents showing close ties to Epstein — including visits, frequent exchanges, and his name appearing repeatedly in the files — sparked institutional and public pressure. Summers, a former U.S. Treasury secretary and one-time Harvard president, expressed that his decision was difficult and framed it as an opportunity to focus on independent research, but his resignation underscores the broader repercussions that association with Epstein continues to have for powerful figures across academic and professional spheres.to contact me:bobbycapucci@protonmail.comsource:Larry Summers to resign as Harvard University professor amid Epstein falloutBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-epstein-chronicles--5003294/support.

Markets were mixed Thursday, with large caps pressured by weakness in mega-cap tech and semis even as small caps and equal-weight performance held up better on a rotation toward software and select cyclicals. Cross-asset moves were modest overall, with slightly lower Treasury yields after a solid 7-year auction and oil fading from earlier strength on headlines around U.S.–Iran talks. The day's focus stayed on earnings and the near-term macro calendar, with attention turning to Friday's PPI and next week's ISM data.

Africa Melane chats to SANAC’s Nelson Dlamini about treasury allocating R26bn to provinces to sustain HIV/AIDS treatment. Presenter John Maytham is an actor and author-turned-talk radio veteran and seasoned journalist. His show serves a round-up of local and international news coupled with the latest in business, sport, traffic and weather. The host’s eclectic interests mean the program often surprises the audience with intriguing book reviews and inspiring interviews profiling artists. A daily highlight is Rapid Fire, just after 5:30pm. CapeTalk fans call in, to stump the presenter with their general knowledge questions. Another firm favourite is the humorous Thursday crossing with award-winning journalist Rebecca Davis, called “Plan B”. Thank you for listening to a podcast from Afternoon Drive with John Maytham Listen live on Primedia+ weekdays from 15:00 and 18:00 (SA Time) to Afternoon Drive with John Maytham broadcast on CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show go to https://buff.ly/BSFy4Cn or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/n8nWt4x Subscribe to the CapeTalk Daily and Weekly Newsletters https://buff.ly/sbvVZD5 Follow us on social media: CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was associate editor and columnist for the The Wall Street Journal and was appointed by President Reagan to Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He joins founder of Curves International Fitness, businessman, author, filmmaker and philanthropist Gary Heavin to discuss the collapse of the dollar, Tucker/Huckabee interview, United States being a puppet of Israel, and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!    Watch Show Rumble- https://rumble.com/v769yqy-the-u.s.-is-a-servile-agent-of-israel-paul-craig-roberts-and-gary-heavin.html YouTube- https://youtu.be/LXe21BJ9TOk?si=Vn9aOqUKlLzdhCmh   Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com   Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me   Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998   Follow Dr. Roberts Website-  https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/   Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/ Independence Ark Natural Farming- https://www.independenceark.com/

Bitcoin accumulation is approaching extreme levels at the same time cracks are beginning to show across the broader financial system. As trillions are wiped from global equities amid AI disruption fears, trade tensions rise, and short-term Treasury issuance surges, liquidity conditions are tightening and confidence in traditional markets appears increasingly fragile. Yet beneath the volatility, on-chain data suggests large players are quietly absorbing supply.

Stephen Grootes speaks to Duncan Pieterse, Treasury Director-general to unpack Budget 2026 in a nutshell. With inflation-linked personal income tax relief, a higher tax-free savings limit, no VAT or corporate tax hikes, and the withdrawal of the planned R20 billion tax increase, Treasury struck a more optimistic tone. However, fuel and carbon levies will rise, the deficit sits at 4% of GDP, and debt is projected to stabilise at 77.3% of GDP. In other interviews, Motus Chief Executive Officer, Ockert Janse van Rensburg discusses Motus’ improved operational performance, the stronger sales volumes across key markets, and how disciplined strategy execution supported the Group’s robust financial results for the period. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Grootes speaks to Duncan Pieterse, Treasury Director General, to unpack Budget 2026 in a nutshell. With inflation-linked personal income tax relief, a higher tax-free savings limit, no VAT or corporate tax hikes, and the withdrawal of the planned R20 billion tax increase, Treasury struck a more optimistic tone. However, fuel and carbon levies will rise, the deficit sits at 4% of GDP, and debt is projected to stabilise at 77.3% of GDP. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Stephen Grootes speaks to Miyelani Holeni about what Enoch Godongwana signalled in the Budget Speech, a decisive shift toward enforcing fiscal discipline at municipal level to fix failing water and electricity services, with the City of Johannesburg collecting billions in water revenue but reinvesting only a fraction and contributing to a R64 billion backlog. The Finance Minister warned that diverting service revenue away from infrastructure maintenance risks systemic collapse. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tonight's BizNews Briefing starts with Deputy Finance Minister David Masondo saying South Africa's public finances have reached a turning point, with debt stabilising and the deficit narrowing. Alec Hogg then reports from Parliament on bracket relief, a revenue surprise and improved “housekeeping” at Treasury. The programme shifts to the US for President Trump's economy-focused State of the Union, before closing with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that parts of the lending market are heating up again.

Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group's Newport Beach office recaps Tuesday's market rebound: Dow +370, S&P +0.7%, Nasdaq +1%+, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.03%. He discusses reports of possible tax relief in the State of the Union as potentially positive for productivity and growth, while noting broader political concerns around tariffs and government involvement in private companies. He reviews the finalized broad-based tariff rate of 10% (down from a floated 15%), calling it a meaningful reduction—about $140B less in tariff revenue—supportive of economic growth. Szytel addresses media attention on private credit, saying delinquencies are only modestly higher, spreads remain tight, and lending continues; gated redemptions in some funds reflect illiquid underlying assets, not distress, and cited loan sales were near par (99.70). Economic data was broadly positive: Case-Shiller 20-city home prices +1.4% YoY (0.5% seasonally adjusted), consumer confidence rose to 91.2 vs 88.6 expected, and wholesale inventories were in line at +0.2% for December. 00:00 Market Rebound Recap 00:30 Tax Relief Headlines 01:17 Tariff Rate Update 01:57 Private Credit Reality Check 03:38 Today's Economic Data 04:35 Wrap Up and Thanks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Logan Freeman is back for his 2026 update on the 18.6-year real estate cycle: breaking down where he believes we are right now (still in the “Winner's Curse,” but with a messy, sector-by-sector twist) and what signals he's watching to spot a true shift into contraction. We dig into the big contradictions investors are feeling: transaction volumes and pricing stabilization on one hand, and real pain in certain sectors (office distress, Sunbelt multifamily oversupply, looming debt maturities) on the other. Logan's take: we're in a “rolling recession by sector,” where top-quartile assets and defensive niches can behave like late expansion while over-levered commodity assets behave like early contraction. Finally, Logan shares how he's positioning his own capital, why he's focused on small-bay industrial with yard space, industrial outdoor storage economics, and the land/power/infrastructure race behind data centers, plus his predictions for 2026 transaction volume, rates, and pricing heading into 2027. Key Takeaways The 18.6-year cycle refresher: recovery → expansion → Winner's Curse → contraction, and why psychology + credit matter Why 2025–early 2026 looks “bifurcated”: office vs. medical office, Sunbelt multifamily vs. Midwest stability, and defensive sectors The debt maturity wave (2024–2027) as the forcing mechanism that can create both distress and opportunity What Logan watches now: 10-year Treasury trend, CMBS spread tightening, distress volume, office vacancy, and multifamily rent growth Where he's investing: small-bay industrial + yard space, iOS tailwinds, and the land/power path to data center development Disclaimer The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk. Nothing here is investment, tax, legal, or financial advice; consult qualified professionals. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may include paid advertisements or promotional materials for sponsors, funds, or offerings and should not be interpreted as a recommendation or endorsement by PassivePockets, LLC or affiliates. Conduct your own due diligence and consider your financial situation before engaging with any advertised products or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for any actions taken based on the information presented.

Doug McHoney (PwC's International Tax Services Global Leader) is joined by Wade Sutton, a PwC principal who leads the International Tax Team in PwC's Washington National Tax Services Practice and previously served as Deputy International Tax Counsel at the US Department of the Treasury. Doug and Wade discuss late-2025 Treasury and IRS guidance implementing cross-border provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), focusing on transition and compliance mechanics that surface on 2025 returns. They walk through Notice 2025-72 (CFC year-end conformity and short-period foreign tax allocation), Notice 2025-75 (final-year coordination of the 'hot potato' rule with Section 951A(2)(B) as the regime shifts to pro rata attribution), Notice 2025-77 (a 10% foreign tax credit haircut for taxes tied to certain previously taxed distributions), and Notice 2025-78 (limits on deduction-eligible export income for certain property and IP sales). They close with downstream interactions (especially CAMT and loss/FTC limitations) and how Pillar Two 'side-by-side' dynamics may influence structuring.

Could gold-backed Treasury bonds restore confidence in the dollar—or trigger a gold revaluation? Here's what it means for your wealth.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), approved July 4, 2025, made the opportunity zone (OZ) incentive permanent and made several significant changes to the program. One key change is that, effective Jan. 1, 2027, each state will designate new OZs. On this episode of the Tax Credit Tuesday podcast, Michael Novogradac, CPA, and Novogradac partner Jason Watkins, CPA, discuss these changes and how they will impact tax incentives and eligibility criteria for qualified OZ investors. Novogradac and Watkins explain where the program stands and discuss a variety of issues that require guidance or clarification from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, including the designation of new census tracts. The pair also discuss how Treasury will implement the transition from OZ 1.0 to OZ 2.0. Finally, Novogradac and Watkins discuss the various efforts of the Novogradac OZ Working Group to highlight potential issues and offer recommendations for implementation guidance in the form of three letters to Treasury.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we dive into the Supreme Court's ruling against tariffs last week. Plus, Robbie sits down with Plantd's Josh Dorfman for a discussion on the intersection of sustainability, capital markets, housing, and pragmatic climate solutions for business and policy leaders. And we close by looking at the Treasury's quarterly refunding.This week's podcasts are sponsored by FirstClose. FirstClose Equity gets you to closings faster by empowering borrowers with vital property decisioning data. It is the only end-to-end digital HELOC & HEL solution built specifically for home equity.

Stories we're following this morning at Progress Texas: Joshua Orta - the passenger in the car of Ruben Ray Martinez when he was allegedly shot by a federal border officer last March and the key witness in the case - himself died in a car crash in San Antonio last weekend: https://apnews.com/article/texas-ice-shooting-martinez-orta-death-eef234709ecea98a9fabaafefb656c07Texts asking for "sexy pics" and suggesting sexual acts sent by Republican Congressman Tony Gonzales to staffer Regina Santos-Aviles, who later committed suicide, have been revealed - and members of his own party are now demanding his resignation: https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/texas-congressman-faces-new-calls-to-resign-after-texts-revealed-258164805519...We featured four Democrats seeking nomination in Gonzales' CD 23 recently: ⁠https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/special-live-pod-the-democrats-running-for-cd-23/id1552998795?i=1000749334936⁠Dallas Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett has introduced "The Payback Act", which would compel the Secretary of the Treasury to refund American consumers who have been overcharged as a result of illegal Trump tariffs: https://crockett.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-crockett-introduces-payback-act-refund-americans-trumps-illegal-tariff...Perhaps some intrepid reporter will ask Donald Trump about Rep. Crockett's proposal when he appears in Corpus Christi on Friday: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas-take/article/donald-trump-texas-visit-primary-election-21937687.phpDr. Peter Attia, who lives in Austin, has stepped down from a contributor role at CBS News as a result of his extensive implication in the Epstein files: https://www.statesman.com/news/article/cbs-peter-attia-epstein-files-21904396.phpA Bastrop county commissioner who had proposed renaming a local highway for Charlie Kirk has withdrawn his idea, which was met with fierce public opposition: https://www.statesman.com/news/local/article/bastrop-fm969-charlie-kirk-name-debate-21516197.phpEarly voting in the March primary is underway! Research your ballot here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2026/texas-march-2026-primary-ballot/?_bhlid=7d8eca3d2a16adc7c9b44185414443fa32be6d84⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠All about voting in Texas can be found at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠GoVoteTexas.org⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Progress Texas is expanding into both broadcast radio - including a new partnership with ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠KPFT-FM in Houston⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - and into Spanish language media! Make a tax-deductible contribution to our radio initiative ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HERE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and to our Spanish expansion ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HERE⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.Find our web store and other ways to support our important work at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://progresstexas.org⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

What if your treasury function could run smarter, not harder?David Mazzola, Head of Treasury at Norstella shows how a systems-first mindset turned chaotic spreadsheets into scalable, global treasury operations - and how you can do the same.David Mazzola is the Head of Treasury at Norstella, a global pharma intelligence solutions provider.Known for being “tech-obsessed,” David has led treasury transformations across insurance, tech, and pharma by embedding systems thinking into every function he touches.In this episode, David shares how a deep interest in technology shaped his unconventional path into treasury and helped him drive transformation at companies like QBE, Spotify, and now Norstella.You'll hear how he implemented treasury management systems across global teams, why many organizations fail at tech adoption, and how automation tools like RPA can radically reduce manual workloads.If you're a treasury professional looking to modernize your function - or just want to understand how to lead with systems thinking - this episode is packed with practical strategies and real-world lessons.What We Cover in This Episode:How David transitioned from banking operations into corporate treasuryEarly lessons from building treasury systems from scratch at QBEWhy many treasury functions fail at tech adoption - and how to avoid itImplementing KYRIBA across global regions and its organizational impactWhat David learned by contrasting organic treasury builds (like Spotify) with post-M&A integrations (like Norstella)How robotic process automation (RPA) helped slash 20 hours of work into 45 minutesBalancing urgency with control when building treasury infrastructure fastWhy treasury leaders must keep their eyes on liquidity, risk, and future scalingDavid's take on the future of treasury - from AI to blockchain to better B2B payment flowsYou can connect with David Mazzola on LinkedIn.---

Reality distortion fields aren't just for Steve Jobs anymore - they're everywhere in our sclerotic institutions, and the latest examples show just how disconnected official narratives are from what's actually happening.

"A gold revaluation isn't a conspiracy theory. It's a legislative door that's already been opened," warns Graham Summers, editor of Money & Markets. In this critical return to the Daniela Cambone show, Summers reveals that the Trump administration could trigger the biggest gold revaluation in history, potentially repricing the nation's gold from $42 an ounce to $10,000 or more. While the media focuses on market volatility, Summers pulls back the curtain on the Treasury's balance sheet. He explains that the real target isn't just paying down debt. It is funding a strategic Bitcoin reserve and winning the AI arms race with China. Watch the video to hear Summers expose how the appointments of key "gold guys" and the precedent set by FDR in 1934 could lead to a seismic shift that unlocks trillions and reshapes the financial system by year's end.✅ FREE RESOURCESDownload The Private Wealth Playbook — a data-backed guide to strategically acquiring gold and silver for maximum protection, privacy, and performance. Plus, get Daniela Cambone's Top 10 Lessons to safeguard your wealth (FREE)

Is China really “dumping” U.S. Treasury bonds—or is that headline missing key context? Lance Roberts examines what Treasury International Capital (TIC) data does (and doesn't) show, why China's reported holdings can shift for reasons that have nothing to do with panic selling, and how custody chains and financial centers can complicate the narrative. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:52 - What to Do w Tariffs Struck Down by SCOTUS 5:35 - GDP Weaker than Expected, except... 12:59 - Coming Attractions - Ten Laws of Money 16:27 - Chat Question: Is China Dumping U.S. Treasuries? 17:48 - The Problem w the Narrative & Lance in France 22:06 - China's Shift in Custodial Relationships 26:13 - Why Luxembourg & Belgium Matter 28:05 - How the Financial Plumbing Works 29:16 - Why They Buy Dollar-denominated Assets 31:55 - Dollar vs Euro Trade 32:48 - How Investors Should Look at U.S. Treasuries 34:08 - U.S. Treasuries Anchor Risk-free Pricing 37:20 - Portfolio is a Toolbox, not a Narrative 39:01 - Focus on the Risk that Matters 41:51 - Tariff Changes & Policy Risks 43:26 - Semper Gumby - Always Flexible ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/fEk6rYGzFkA?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Mega Roth Questions & Senior Deductions," here: https://youtube.com/live/fEk6rYGzFkA?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Warning - Breadth at 50-Year Extreme," is here: https://youtu.be/Dule_eZoSBY ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketBreadth #SectorRotation #RiskManagement #USTreasuries #China #BondMarket #InterestRates #MacroInvesting

In this episode, Craig Jeffery and Paul Galloway discuss treasury aggregators as part of the 2026 Analyst Report series. They cover what these platforms do, how they enable bank connectivity, payment processing, and visibility, and what makes them essential for organizations facing increased scale and complexity. 2026 Treasury Technology Analyst Report: https://strategictreasurer.com/analyst-report-2026

Is China really "dumping" U.S. Treasury bonds—or is that headline missing key context? Lance Roberts examines what Treasury International Capital (TIC) data does (and doesn't) show, why China's reported holdings can shift for reasons that have nothing to do with panic selling, and how custody chains and financial centers can complicate the narrative. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:52 - What to Do w Tariffs Struck Down by SCOTUS 5:35 - GDP Weaker than Expected, except... 12:59 - Coming Attractions - Ten Laws of Money 16:27 - Chat Question: Is China Dumping U.S. Treasuries? 17:48 - The Problem w the Narrative & Lance in France 22:06 - China's Shift in Custodial Relationships 26:13 - Why Luxembourg & Belgium Matter 28:05 - How the Financial Plumbing Works 29:16 - Why They Buy Dollar-denominated Assets 31:55 - Dollar vs Euro Trade 32:48 - How Investors Should Look at U.S. Treasuries 34:08 - U.S. Treasuries Anchor Risk-free Pricing 37:20 - Portfolio is a Toolbox, not a Narrative 39:01 - Focus on the Risk that Matters 41:51 - Tariff Changes & Policy Risks 43:26 - Semper Gumby - Always Flexible ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/fEk6rYGzFkA?feature=share ------- Watch our previous show, "Mega Roth Questions & Senior Deductions," here: https://youtube.com/live/fEk6rYGzFkA?feature=share -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Market Rotation Warning - Breadth at 50-Year Extreme," is here: https://youtu.be/Dule_eZoSBY ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #SP500 #MarketBreadth #SectorRotation #RiskManagement #USTreasuries #China #BondMarket #InterestRates #MacroInvesting

The CLARITY Act is on the verge of passing, and clear rules for tokenized stocks and revenue-sharing tokens are about to hit crypto. Instead of waiting for slow, top-down Wall Street adoption, Solana and Jupiter's JUP ecosystem are building from the bottom up: empowering retail, communities, and real users first, so that when compliant tokenized assets and revenue flows arrive, they plug directly into live, high-throughput rails that already work at scale.~This episode is sponsored by Tangem~Tangem ➜ https://bit.ly/TangemPBNUse Code: "PBN" for Additional Discounts!Guest: Kash Dhanda -COO ( and Cat Herder) at JupiterFollow Kash on X ➜  https://x.com/kashdhandaJupiter Exchange ➜ https://bit.ly/JUPonSolana00:00 Intro00:20 Sponsor: Tangem01:15 CLARITY: Does Solana most benefit?02:15 CLARITY affect on Jupiter ecosystem?03:30 JUP's current lineup of products05:20 New product updates06:30 Tokenized Stocks vs TradFi09:30 When will investors trust tokenized stocks?11:00 Are institutions ready for CLARITY?12:15 Will banks try to ban JUP USD vaults?13:20 JUP Vault benefits14:50 HYPE vs JUP16:40 Revenue vs TVL17:30 Vote net zero emissions20:50 $JUP tokenomics22:45 LIGHTING ROUND29:40 CLARITY marks crypto bottom?#Crypto #Solana #Ethereum~Clear CLARITY Winner = $JUP on Solana?

BREAKING: The Supreme Court rules against tariffs under IEEPA — now what?Was this about executive overreach? Revenue strategy? Inflation risk? Or political narrative?Today we break down:• What IEEPA actually is• Why the Court ruled the way it did• How this impacts the $37 trillion deficit• Whether tariffs raise inflation• What this means for Treasury yields & mortgage rates• What happens nextNo hype. No partisan spin. Just facts, market mechanics, and how this affects homeowners and buyers.Every day, we pull real pricing from 30+ lenders and show you exactly what you qualify for — plus lock vs. float guidance tied to CPI, Jobs, MBS & the 10-Year Treasury.Transparent. Data-driven.

The Treasury Department is highlighting best practices for using artificial intelligence within the financial sector. They include an artificial intelligence lexicon and a financial services AI risk management framework. The resources were developed by the Artificial Intelligence Executive Oversight Group, a Treasury-led partnership between financial institutions and regulators. The voluntary guidelines come as financial institutions increasingly rely on A-I to support decision-making, customer engagement, and operational functions. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Meta Description: Kentucky financial advisors discuss Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s impact on interest rates, market volatility, and retirement portfolios. Dupree insights on portfolio management. When market uncertainty meets changing Federal Reserve leadership, retirees need clear guidance on protecting their portfolios. In this episode of The Financial Hour, Tom Dupree Jr., James Dupree, and Mike Johnson provide direct access to portfolio managers who explain how Kevin Warsh’s nomination as Fed Chair could reshape your retirement strategy through interest rate changes and market positioning. Understanding Kevin Warsh’s Approach to Federal Reserve Policy The nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair has created significant market implications for retirement portfolios. As Tom Dupree explains, “Warsh is gonna have to deal with this stuff and the stock market is not gonna be his only problem.” His unconventional stance differs from traditional dovish or hawkish approaches, creating both opportunities and challenges for income-focused investors. Mike Johnson notes that Warsh “has kind of an odd view” because “he’s been critical of the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.” This critical perspective on quantitative easing could fundamentally alter how markets price risk and opportunity, particularly for those managing retirement income portfolios in Kentucky and beyond. Interest Rate Environment and Portfolio Impact The Yield Curve Steepening Effect The current interest rate environment shows a steepening yield curve, where long-term rates rise while short-term rates decline. Mike explains: “You’ve seen the yield curve steep… long-term rates have been going up, while short-term rates are going down.” This creates distinct opportunities across different market segments. Small-cap stocks, which are “more tied to shorter term interest rates,” could benefit from Fed rate cuts on the short end. Meanwhile, high-multiple growth stocks face valuation pressure as long-term rates normalize. Treasury Bonds and Market Positioning The 30-year Treasury currently sits at 4.77%, having fluctuated based on market expectations. As our team discusses, the real question becomes: “Trump wants this guy to get rates lower so that housing will start moving… but rates may end up going higher.” This uncertainty requires active personalized portfolio management rather than passive acceptance of market direction. Market Rotation: From Growth to Value and Income Dividend-Focused Strategy in Volatile Markets Since October, markets have experienced significant rotation from growth expectations into cash-flow-predictable companies. As Mike observes, “You’ve seen a rotation out of growth expectations, high multiple stocks and into things where the cash flow is more predictable.” For retirees seeking consistent income, this shift validates the investment philosophy of focusing on dividend-producing assets. “Regardless of what the price is doing, all else being equal, the dividend, the income stream is still there,” Mike emphasizes. The Speed of Information and Investment Decisions The acceleration of market information flow through technology and AI creates both opportunities and risks. “Every second of every day is the market agreeing with you or disagreeing with you,” Mike notes, highlighting the double-edged nature of instant market feedback. This rapid information environment requires discipline in distinguishing between noise and actionable intelligence. As Tom points out regarding their investment approach: “We started doing in the last several years is buying more things that are just common sense type names… that works better.” Technology Sector Volatility: AI and Memory Chip Stocks Navigating the AI Investment Landscape The artificial intelligence sector has dominated headlines while creating extreme volatility. Recent examples include software stocks experiencing significant drawdowns followed by rapid 16-25% single-day gains. James observes: “An average day with no news, a stock going up 25%… that’s ridiculous.” The team’s approach involves gradual averaging into AI-related positions since September, following detailed sector analysis. “We’ve had calls with them. We wanted to understand the sector better,” Mike explains, demonstrating the value of direct access to portfolio managers who conduct primary research. Memory Chip Stock Opportunities Memory chip manufacturers present compelling valuation opportunities despite recent volatility. The team recently added a position with a forward P/E of just 12, significantly below the S&P 500’s average of approximately 22. Tom notes the stock is “up 300% in the last year” but maintains “earnings to back it.” This disciplined approach to high-growth sectors exemplifies how personalized investment management differs from mass-market strategies that either avoid volatility entirely or chase momentum without fundamental analysis. Learning from Market History: Avoiding Value Traps The Dot-Com Bubble Comparison Drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble provides perspective on current AI valuations. Tom recalls: “People were making fun of Warren Buffett towards the end of the tech bubble… ultimately he had kind of the last laugh.” Not all survivors of market corrections recover equally. Intel, for example, “survived but it took 20 plus years for it to get back to where it was” after the tech bubble burst. This underscores the importance of selectivity even within promising sectors. Management Quality Matters The discussion of Kraft Heinz illustrates how management quality impacts long-term results. Despite being “considered one of the top companies around” with Warren Buffett’s backing, “their management is horrible,” leading to poor strategic decisions and shareholder disappointment. As James concludes: “There’s a reason why CEOs and extremely well, highly talented staff are so highly paid, they’re hard to find.” Key Takeaways for Retirement Investors Kevin Warsh’s Fed leadership could mean higher long-term rates despite lower short-term rates, requiring portfolio adjustments Yield curve steepening creates opportunities in small-cap stocks while pressuring high-multiple growth names Dividend-focused strategies provide income consistency regardless of price volatility Technology sector selectivity matters more than broad exposure, with valuations and earnings fundamentals guiding decisions Management quality and business fundamentals trump thematic investing for long-term success Common sense investments in recognizable companies often outperform obscure “deep value” plays Active portfolio management adapts to rapid market changes while maintaining long-term discipline Frequently Asked Questions How will Kevin Warsh’s Fed leadership affect my retirement portfolio? Warsh’s critical stance on the Fed’s balance sheet and quantitative easing could lead to different interest rate dynamics than previous Fed chairs. Long-term rates may remain elevated even as short-term rates decline, impacting bond valuations and stock multiples. Retirement portfolios should emphasize dividend income and fundamental value rather than relying on Fed accommodation. What is a steepening yield curve and why does it matter? A steepening yield curve occurs when long-term interest rates rise relative to short-term rates. This environment typically benefits small-cap companies that rely on shorter-term financing while pressuring high-valuation growth stocks. For retirement investors, it suggests favoring income-producing assets over growth speculation. Should retirees invest in AI and technology stocks despite volatility? Technology exposure should be sized appropriately for your risk tolerance and income needs. Our approach involves gradual position building in fundamentally sound companies with reasonable valuations, never risking retirement income needs on speculative positions. Direct access to portfolio managers helps navigate these decisions. How do I know if I’m in a value trap versus a true opportunity? Value traps lack the three essential elements: quality management, sustainable earnings, and reasonable business prospects. True opportunities combine all three elements with temporarily depressed valuations. This requires ongoing research and analysis rather than simple valuation metrics. What makes dividend-focused investing effective in volatile markets? Dividend income provides cash flow independent of price fluctuations. As Mike explains, “regardless of what the price is doing… the income stream is still there.” This creates portfolio stability while volatile prices create rebalancing opportunities for patient investors. Take Control of Your Retirement Portfolio Market transitions create both risk and opportunity. The difference between portfolio growth and disappointment often comes down to having personalized investment management with direct access to portfolio managers who actively research positions and adapt to changing conditions. At Dupree Financial Group, our team-based approach means you benefit from comprehensive analysis rather than a single perspective. We focus on income-producing investments, transparent fee structures, and strategies designed specifically for retirees and pre-retirees aged 50 and above. Don’t navigate Fed policy changes and market volatility alone. Call (859) 233-0400 for a complimentary portfolio review or schedule your appointment directly on our website at dupreefinancial.com. Listen to more episodes and insights in our Market Commentary archive. The post How Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Could Impact Your Retirement Portfolio: Interest Rates, Market Volatility, and Investment Strategy appeared first on Dupree Financial.

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Nathan Sheets, Global Chief Economist at Citi and former U.S. Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, to explore Japan's shifting economic landscape following a historic political moment.* Just over 100 days into her term, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election that delivered a rare supermajority for the Liberal Democratic Party. With such a decisive mandate, Japan enters 2026 with renewed political strength and major policy opportunities. Together, they discuss what Prime Minister Takaichi's victory means for economic policymaking, how the U.S.-Japan alliance is shaping the outlook, and the growing debate around possible U.S. intervention in the yen. Nathan offers insight into why intervention is being discussed now, what it would aim to accomplish, and whether it is truly likely given recent messaging from Washington. The conversation also examines the broader dollar debate, Japan's uniquely high debt levels, and the pressures facing both the U.S. and Japanese economies. Clay and Nathan conclude with a look at geopolitics, specifically the delicate triumvirate relationship between the U.S., Japan and China, and how this balance could impact the global economy in the year ahead. *Before jumping into Japan, Clay acknowledges the U.S. Supreme Court's decision striking down the administration's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping global tariffs. For more on IEEPA and its implications, check out Current Account episodes [134](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6450/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-134--The-Best-of-Times-and-the-Worst-of-Times--A-Tale-of-Trump-s-Tariffs"), [126](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6360/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-126--Stop--In-the-Name-of-Tariffs---The-Supremes--Court----IEEPA"), [109](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now- "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6166/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-109--An-Eye-for-an-IEEPA--Trump-Tariffs---Where-Are-They-Now-"), and [96](https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications "https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/6026/Current-Account-with-Clay-Lowery---Episode-96--Tariff-o-Rama--Explaining-U-S--Tariff-Implications"). This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

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On Friday's Mark Levin Show, the Supreme Court majority issued a very messy and problematic decision on tariffs. The fact is the majority agreed on an outcome but not so much on the reasoning for the outcome. It struck tariffs under a single statute, yet created chaos or, actually, left it to the president to decide if and/or how to treat the revenue those tariffs already created for the federal Treasury. The question is not who has the power to tax per se, but a more complicated question about where the separation of powers is. The majority, apparently, chose to duck the question and stick with the indirect tax characterization and focus on a single statute, which is outrageous. Also, Tucker Carlson is an indecent grifter with inexplicable ties to Qatar and an attraction to the Third Reich. He is gravely damaging the Republican Party, the midterm elections, and the Trump administration. Later, Jon Levine of the Washington Free Beacon calls in to explain that NYC Mayor Mamdani is fulfilling his campaign promises by staffing his administration with individuals from radical Islamist and far-left progressive circles, united by a shared hatred of the West and Jews. Mamdani is also pressuring Governor Hochul to impose a wealth tax by threatening massive property tax increases on roughly 3 million homeowners—effectively holding the entire city hostage in a "look what you made me do" tactic. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold's steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Follow Mark on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 – Introduction & market check-in02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt...

Guy Adami interviews Michael Kao (@UrbanKaoboy), discussing the historic moves in gold and silver, the debate over fiat debasement versus speculative positioning, and why charts showing central bank gold eclipsing Treasury holdings can be misleading because much of the change is price appreciation rather than new buying. Kao argues true de-dollarization is unlikely due to the lack of a rival fiat ecosystem with comparable liquidity and deep bond markets, and says a shift from Treasuries to gold as a reserve anchor would imply economic austerity and slower global GDP growth. They explore how geopolitics (including post-Ukraine reserve seizure fears) and Trump-related tariff and deficit narratives have fueled gold, while Kao outlines a contrarian view that Trump 2.0 policies plus AI could be deflationary and potentially restore productivity-driven disinflationary growth similar to the late 1990s; he also critiques CBO debt projections for assuming low productivity growth. The conversation covers AI's disruptive impact on industry moats and equity multiple compression versus immediate default risk, touches briefly on Japan's bond market and the yen carry trade, and examines the “sanctity” of large AI CapEx plans and whether AI expands total addressable markets or mainly drives cost cutting. Kao highlights his thesis from his piece on AI electrification: U.S. electricity demand may accelerate sharply after decades of flat growth, creating an energy bottleneck that increases reliance on natural gas (given limits to coal and nuclear), amplified by data center buildouts and LNG exports. He explains his preference for natural gas mineral strategies that distribute cash flow over trading commodities or owning E&P equities due to capital allocation risks, and notes recent oil spikes have often faded since 2022. Show Notes AI, Electrification, and the Hidden Energy Bottleneck | Michael Kao The Fourth Turning by Strauss & Howe —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4tNvJGE David Bahnsen opens Dividend Cafe after a volatile week marked by a weaker-than-expected GDP report and a Supreme Court ruling striking down President Trump's tariff rationale under the Economic Emergency Act (with a deeper tariff discussion coming Monday). His core thesis: disinflation is likely in 2026—and it may not feel positive. He clarifies the difference between inflation (rising prices), disinflation (slower price increases), and deflation (falling prices). Bond markets are signaling softer expectations, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.07% and five-year inflation breakevens around 2.4%, suggesting modest real growth ahead. Recent GDP registered about 1.4% annualized, distorted in part by a government shutdown, while core PCE inflation is roughly 3% year-over-year versus 2.9% a year ago. Bahnsen expects services-driven disinflation, particularly as rent measures catch up to real-time data. However, that may not improve affordability given tight housing inventory and a frozen resale market. He also warns that business investment is overly concentrated in AI and data centers—echoing the fracking-era CapEx surge—while broader investment remains subdued. Risks to growth include a weak labor market with low hiring, a personal saving rate near 3.4% (raising the chance tax refunds rebuild savings instead of fuel spending), and muted bank lending despite lower rates. 00:00 A wild news week 01:48 Cutting through economic spin 03:23 Why 2026 disinflation may disappoint 04:36 Bond market signals 07:16 GDP and data distortions 10:49 Services-led disinflation 14:05 Concentrated CapEx risk 16:38 Labor, savings, and lending 20:09 Tariffs and demand drag 22:24 What to watch next Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Modern Lessons from the Fed-Treasury Accord. Drawing parallels between 1951 and today, John Cochrane examines the tension between presidential administrations and the Federal Reserve during crises. He emphasizes that the Fed must maintain its independence, warning against perpetually funding government spending and urging a strict focus on inflation control over politically motivated easy money. #41918 VERDUN

Truman, the Fed, and the 1951 Accord. Professor John Cochrane explores the 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord during the Korean War. Fearing another World War II-style crisis, President Harry Truman pressured Fed Chairman Thomas McCabe to keep interest rates low. Instead, the Fed fought for its independence to combat inflation, establishing modern monetary policy precedents. #31918 AMERICANS IN LONDON

Our Global Head of FX and EM Strategy James Lord and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discuss what's driving the U.S. policy for the dollar and the outlook for other global currencies.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Lord: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter:  And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. James Lord: Today we're talking about U.S. currency policy and whether recent news on intervention and nominations to the Fed change anything for the outlook of the dollar. It's Thursday, February 19th at 3pm in London. So it's been an interesting few weeks in currency markets. Plenty of dollar selling going on But then, we got news that Kevin Warsh is going to be nominated to Chair of the Board of Governors. And that sent the dollar back higher, reminding everybody that monetary policy and central bank policy still matter. So, in the aftermath of the dollar-yen rate check, investors started to discuss whether or not the U.S. might be starting to target a weaker currency. Not just be comfortable with a weaker currency, but actually explicitly target a weaker currency, which would presumably be a shift away from the stronger strong dollar policy that Secretary Bessent referenced. So, what is your understanding? What do you think the strong dollar policy actually means? Seth Carpenter: Strong dollar policy, that's a phrase, that's a term; it's a concept that lots of Secretaries of the Treasury have used for a long time. And I specifically point to the Secretary of the Treasury because at least in the recent couple of decades, there has been in standard Washington D.C. approach to things, a strong dichotomy that currency policy is the policy of the Treasury Department, not of the central bank. And that's always been important. I remember when I was working at the Treasury Department, that was still part of the talking points that the secretary used. However, you also hear Secretaries of the Treasury say that exchange rates should be market determined; that that's a key part of it. And with the back and forth between the U.S. and China, for example, there was a lot of discussion: Was the Chinese government adjusting or manipulating the value of their currency? And there was a push that currencies should be market determined. And so, if you think about those two things, at the same time – pushing really hard that the dollar should be strong, pushing really hard that currencies should be market determined – you start to very quickly run into a bit of an intellectual tension. And I think all of that is pretty intentional. What does it mean? It means that there's no single clear definition of strong dollar policy. It's a little bit of the eye of the beholder. It's an acknowledgement that the dollar plays a clear key role in global markets, and it's good for the U.S. for that to happen. That's traditionally been what it means. But it has not meant a specific number relative to any other currency or any basket of currency. It has not meant a specific value based on some sort of long run theoretical fair value. It is always meant to be a very vague, deliberately so, very vague concept. James Lord: So, in that version of what the strong dollar policy means, presumably the sort of ambiguity still leaves space for the Treasury to conduct some kind of intervention in dollar-yen, if they wanted to. And that would still be very much consistent with that definition of the strong dollar policy. I also, in the back of my head, always wonder whether the strong dollar policy has anything to do with the dollar's global role. And the sort of foreign policy power that gives the Treasury in sanctions policy. And other areas where, you know, they can control dollar flows and so on. And that gives the U.S. government some leverage. And that allows them to project strength in foreign policy. Has that anything to do with the traditional versions of the strong policy? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. I think all of that is part and parcel to it. But it also helps to explain a little bit of why there's never going to be a very crisp, specific numerical definition of what a strong dollar policy is.So, first and foremost, I think the discussion of intervention; I think it is, in lots of ways, consistent, especially if you have that more expansive definition of strong dollar, i.e. the currency that's very important, or most important in global financial markets and in global trade. So, I think in that regard, you could have both the intervention and the strong dollar at the same time. I will add though that the administration has not had a clear, consistent view in this regard, in the following very specific sense. When now Governor Myron was chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, he penned a piece on the Council of Economics website that said that the reserve currency status of the dollar had brought with it some adverse effects on the U.S., and in terms of what happened in terms of trade flows and that sort of thing.So again, this administration has also tried to find ways to increase the nuance about what the currency policy is, and putting forward the idea that too strong of a dollar in the FX sense. In the sense that you and your colleagues in FX markets would think about is a high valuation of the dollar relative to other currencies – could have contributed to these trade deficits that they're trying to push back against. So, I would say we went from the previous broad, perhaps vague definition of strong dollar. And now we're in an even murkier regime where there could be other motivations for changing the value of the dollar. Seth Carpenter: So, James, that's been our view in terms of the Fed, but let me come back to you because there are lots of different forces going on at the same time. The central bank is clearly an important one, but it's only one factor among many. So, if you think about where the dollar is likely to go over the next three months, over the next six months, maybe over the next year, what is it that you and your team are looking for? Where are the questions that you're getting from clients? James Lord: Yeah, so when we came into the start of this year, we did have a bearish view on the dollar. I would say that the drivers of it, we'd split up into two components. The first component was a lot more of the conventional stuff about growth expectations, what we see the Fed doing. And then there was another component to it where – what we defined as risk premia, I suppose. The more unconventional catalysts that can push the dollar around, as we saw, come very much to market attention during the second quarter of last year, when the Liberation Day tariffs were announced and the dollar weakened far in excess of what rate differentials would imply. And so, I would say so far this year, the majority of the dollar move that we've seen, the weakening in the dollar that we've seen, has been driven by that second component. What we've kind of called risk premia. And the conversations that, you know, investors have been having about U.S. policy towards Greenland, and then more recently, the conversations that people have been having around FX intervention following the dollar-yen rate check. These sorts of things have been really driving the currency up until , when the Kevin Warsh nomination was announced. When we look at the extent of the risk premia that we see in the dollar now, it is pretty close to the levels that we saw in the second quarter of last year, which is to say it's pretty big. Euro dollar would probably be closer to 1-10, if we were just thinking about the impact of rate differentials and none of this risk premia stuff over the past year had materialized. That's obviously a very big gap. And I think for now that gap probably isn't going to widen much further, particularly now that market attention is much more focused on the impact that Kevin Warsh will have on markets and the dollar. We also have, you know, the ECB and the Bank of England; , house call for those two central banks is for them to be cutting rates. That could also put some downward pressure on those currencies, relative to the dollar. So all of that is to say for some of the major currencies within the G10 space, like sterling, like euro against the dollar, this probably isn't the time to be pushing a weaker dollar. But I think there are some other currencies which still have some opportunity in the short term, but also over the longer run as well. And that's really in emerging markets. So all of that is to say, I think there is a strong monetary policy anchor for emerging market currencies. This is an asset class that has been under invested in for some time. And we do think that there are more gains there in the short term and over the medium term as well. Seth Carpenter: So on that topic, James, would you then agree? So if I think about some of the EM central banks, think about Banxico, think about the BCB – where the dollar falling in value, their currency gaining in value – that could actually have a couple things go on to allow the central bank, maybe to ease more than they would've otherwise. One, in terms of imported inflation, their currency strengthening on a relative basis probably helps with a bit lower inflation. And secondly, a lot of EM central banks have to worry a bit about defending their currency, especially in a volatile geopolitical time. And you were pointing to sort of lower volatility more broadly. So is this a reinforcing trend perhaps, where if the dollar is coming down a little bit, especially against DM currencies, it allows more external stability for those central banks, allowing them to just focus on their domestic mandates, which could also lead to a further reduction in their domestic rates, which might be good for investors. James Lord: Yeah, I think there's something to that. given the strength of emerging market currencies. There should be, over time, more space for them to ease if the domestic conditions warrant it. But so far we're not really seeing many EM central banks taking advantage of that opportunity. There is a sort of general pattern with a lot of EMs that they're staying pretty conservative and more hawkish than I think what markets have generally been expecting, and that's been supporting their currencies. I think it's interesting to think about what would happen if they're on the flip side. What would happen if they did start to push monetary easing at a faster pace? I'm sure on the days where that happens, the currencies would weaken a little bit. However, if the market backdrop is generally constructive on risk, and investors want to have exposure to EM – then what could ultimately happen is that asset managers will simply buy more bonds as they price in a lower path for central bank policy over time. And that causes more capital inflows. And that sort of overwhelms the knee jerk effect from the more dovish stance of monetary policy on the currency. You get more duration flows coming into the market and that helps their currency. So, yes, if EM central banks push back with more dovish policy, significantly, it could pose some short-term volatility. But assuming we remain a low-vol environment globally, I would use those as buying opportunities. Seth Carpenter: Thanks, James. It's been great being on the show with you. Thank you for inviting me, and I hope to be able to come back and join you at some point in the future if you'll have me. James Lord: Thank you, Seth, for making the time to talk. And to all you listening, thank you for lending us your ears. Let us know what you think of this podcast by leaving us a review. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about us today.