Podcasts about Treasury

Markets feel jittery, interest rates are in flux, and many listeners are wondering how to plan for 2026 with confidence. In this Ask Farnoosh episode, Farnoosh Torabi breaks down the biggest financial headlines of the week and tackles real listener questions about investing, saving, and navigating major life decisions during uncertain economic times.Farnoosh starts with a clear, no-nonsense explanation of the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut and what the split decision inside the Fed signals about inflation, the labor market, and the likelihood of future cuts. She explains why mortgage rates may not move much in the near term, what the Fed's return to buying Treasury securities really means, and why now is not the time to make big financial moves based solely on headlines.Next, Farnoosh walks through important 401(k) changes coming in 2026, including higher contribution limits, expanded catch-up contributions for older workers, and increased employer contribution caps. She outlines who benefits most from these changes and shares practical steps listeners can take now to maximize retirement savings and avoid leaving money on the table.In the mailbag, Farnoosh answers listener questions on:Whether gold makes sense as a “safe haven” investment, how to buy it, and how much is too muchWhen high-yield online savings accounts are a smart place to park money, especially after receiving an inheritanceWhat to do with an old employer's 401(k) and when rolling it over is the better moveAnd one of the toughest questions many first-time buyers face today: whether it's ever worth tapping a 401(k) to buy a home Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why 2026 might bring a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to talk about our outlook for global credit markets in 2026 and why we think the credit cycle burns hotter before it burns out.It's Friday, December 12th at 2pm in London.Surely it can't go on like this. That phrase is probably coming up a lot as global credit investors sit down and plan for 2026. Credit spreads are sitting at 25 year plus tights in the U.S. and Asia. Issuance in corporate activity are increasingly aggressive. Corporate CapEx is surging. Signs of pressure are clear in the lowest rated parts of the market. And credit investors are trained to worry. Aren't all of these and more signs that a credit cycle is starting to crack under its own weight?Not quite yet, according to our views here at Morgan Stanley. Instead, we think that 2026 brings a credit cycle that burns hotter before it burns out. The reason is partly due to an unusually stimulative backdrop. Central banks are cutting interest rates. Governments are spending more money, and regulatory policy is easing. All of that, alongside maybe the largest investment cycle in a generation around artificial intelligence, should spur more risk taking from a corporate sector that has the capacity to do so.In turn, we think the playbook for credit is going to look a lot like 2005 or 1997-1998. Both periods saw levels of capital expenditure, merger activity, interest rates, and an unemployment rate that are pretty similar to what Morgan Stanley expects next year. And so, looking ahead to 2026, these two periods offer two competing ways to view the year ahead.2025 might be more similar to a period where the low-end consumer really is starting to struggle, but that another force – back then it was China, now it might be AI spending – keeps the broader market humming. 1997 or 1998, on the other hand, would be more similar to a narrative that investors are growing more confident that a new technology is really transformative. Back then, it was the internet and now it's AI.Corporate bond issuance we think will be central to how this resolves itself. This is a strong regional theme and a key driver of our views across U.S., European and Asia Credit. We forecast net issuance to rise significantly in U.S. investment grade up over 60 percent versus 2025 to a total of around $1 trillion.That rise is powered by a continued increase in technology spending to fund AI as well as a broader increase in capital expenditure and merger activity. All of those bonds being sold to the market should mean that U.S. spreads need to move wider to adjust. And that's true, even if underlying demand for credit remains pretty healthy, thanks to high yields, and the economy ultimately holds up.We think this story is a bit better in other areas and regions that have less relative issuance, including European and Asian investment grade and global high yield. They all outperform U.S. investment grade on our forecast. In total returns, we think that all of these markets produce a return of around 4 to 6 percent, and if that's true, it would underperform, say U.S. equities, but outperform cash.More granularly similar to 2025 or 2005, we think that single name and sector dispersion remain major themes. And where you position in maturity should also matter. Credit curves are steep and our U.S. interest rate strategist are expecting the U.S. Treasury curve to steepen significantly Further. That should mean that so-called carry and roll down and where you position on the maturity curve are a pretty big driver of your ultimate result. In our view, corporate bonds between five- and 10-year maturity in both the U.S. and Europe will offer the best risk reward.The most significant risk for global credit remains recession, which we think would argue for wider spreads on both economic rounds, but also through weaker demand as yields would fall. It would mean that our spread forecasts are too optimistic and that our expectation that high yield outperforms investment grade would be wrong. And then there's a milder version of this bear case – that aggression and corporate supply are even stronger than we think, and that creates conditions closer to late 1998 or 1999.Back then, U.S. investment grade spreads were roughly 30 basis points wider than current levels, even though the economy was strong and even though the equity market kept going up.Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also, please tell a friend or colleague about us today.

A holiday-flavored Friday Q&A that covers a lot of ground without selling a single candy cane. Don answers listener questions on Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage (and the IRMAA buzzsaw), how to safely reposition an elderly parent's taxable account, whether to ditch target-date funds for a DIY equity portfolio, how to think about international small-cap ETFs, why teaching kids to pick stocks is a terrible idea, and what to expect when a “free portfolio review” comes from a company whose name literally includes the word annuity. Skeptical, practical, and very on-brand. 0:17 Corny holiday Q&A musical intro and setup 0:33 Friday Q&A format, how questions get on the show, and holiday vibe 2:00 Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage, IRMAA penalties, and why private insurers are exhausting 3:37 Why capital gains can make Medicare shockingly expensive 4:15 The profit motive problem with Medicare Advantage plans 4:37 Question transition and listener call-in reminder 5:43 Managing an 82-year-old's taxable account: safety vs. yield 6:18 Why bond funds like BND diversify interest-rate risk better than savings accounts 7:15 CD ladders: how they work and why discipline matters 7:39 Treasury funds vs. total bond funds for capital preservation 7:47 Closing thoughts on preservation-focused portfolios 8:52 Target-date funds vs. DIY 401(k) portfolios 9:20 Glide paths, rebalancing, and what target-date funds do well 10:35 100% equity risk, volatility, and why down markets help accumulators 10:53 Choosing between AVDV and AVES (international small value vs. emerging markets) 11:47 Why the correct answer is often “both” 12:33 Teaching high school students about investing 13:52 Why stock-picking education reinforces a dangerous myth 14:28 Luck vs. skill and the evidence against beating the market 15:39 Index funds, market efficiency, and investor behavior 16:49 Morningstar vs. other research tools 17:18 Empower's “free portfolio review” and what might be coming next 18:06 Portfolio concentration concerns and tech exposure 19:33 Humor break and annuity skepticism 20:55 What Empower actually is and what that implies 21:16 Empower as an RIA and how to treat their recommendations 21:52 Getting a second opinion from a fee-only advisor 22:58 Thanks, holiday wrap-up, and call for more questions Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Andrew and Tom give an update on the market and discuss several earnings reports.Song: That Was A Crazy Game of Poker - O.A.R.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

A federal small-business contracting program intended for disadvantaged owners is now under investigation by the SBA, Treasury, and Senate leaders after a series of fraud revelations, guilty pleas, and undercover footage showing companies exploiting racial set-asides to bypass competitive bidding. The Trump administration is proposing new vetting rules that would require travelers from dozens of visa-waiver countries to submit up to a decade of online information before entering the U.S.. Two House Democrats filed impeachment articles against Secretaries Pete Hegseth and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., attacks widely seen as political stunts with no chance of advancing in a Republican-controlled House. In-N-Out has officially retired order number 67 after the Gen-Alpha “6-7” meme sparked chaotic in-store outbursts, fueled by a viral TikTok trend that has even reached Vice President JD Vance's household. Walmart: Learn how Walmart is fueling the future of U.S. manufacturing at https://Walmart.com/America-at-work Herald Group: Learn more at https://GuardYourCard.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe D’s have lost he narrative, they are trying to blame Trump for the affordability crisis, but he is turning it around on them. The autopen was used to bring Powell, Trump wants it investigated.The gold card has gone live, timing is everything. The affordability crisis is about the [CB]. The [DS] along with foreign gov have been trying to divide the people and the MAGA movement. It is not working, it crumbling and people are learning the truth once again. Trump sets the message and the direction of the midterms. The [DS] is struggling, they will not be able to overcome the economic factor in 2026. This will give the people the power to override anything the [DS] tries to do. Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); “Democrats Know Their Constituents Can’t Read Charts. That’s Why…” Another attempted “gotcha moment” on X by Democrats backfired, revealing that their political strategists and whoever handles their social media accounts lack the most basic chart-reading skills. However, X users pointed out that these political operatives aren’t DEI fools; instead, they seem incapable of telling the truth. https://twitter.com/MajorityPAC/status/1998434136483410412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1998434136483410412%7Ctwgr%5E1e2efe6a29f9c814decbe7c889387ccc40d1410c%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fdemocrats-know-their-constituents-cant-read-charts-thats-why Just like eggs earlier this year and power bills this fall, Democrat operatives are seizing any opportunity to blame Trump for soaring prices that mainly occurred in the previous four years. X user ALX shows why context matters.  Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/StephenMoore/status/1998763870001991751?s=20 https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1998789965254144171?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1998830464321323091?s=20  into 2026. The Fed must do the right thing! https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1998841970559512878?s=20  to inject $40 billion per month into Treasury bill purchases beginning December 12. The combined policies strengthen liquidity, reduce borrowing costs, and ease credit strains that often stall growth. Bank of America says both stocks and crypto stand to gain as confidence rises. The Fed's actions confirm the resilience of Trump's expanding second term economy. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/1999098794412319027?s=20 The post highlights a Wall Street Journal report on Ionic Rare Earths’ discovery of 16 rare earth and critical minerals in Utah’s Mill Creek area, including high-grade lithium and gallium, positioning it as the U.S.’s largest such reserve to reduce reliance on China, which controls 90% of global processing. An aerial image shows the arid Utah landscape near the Great Salt Lake with visible mining pits, underscoring the site’s remote, geologically rich Basin and Range province, where USGS surveys identified potential for 1.5 million tons of rare earth oxides  https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1998846082953130482?s=20 The Trump Gold Card program, launched via executive order in 2025, allows foreign nationals (primarily investors or those sponsored by corporations) to apply for a U.S. green card through expedited channels like EB-1(a) for extraordinary ability or EB-2 national interest waiver. It requires a nonrefundable $15,000 processing fee plus a “contribution” or “gift” of at least $1 million per individual (or $2 million via an employer sponsor), with additional amounts for dependents. The funds go to entities like the U.S. Department of Commerce, and applicants must prove a lawful source of money, similar to the EB-5 investor visa.  The process involves filing a new Form I-140G, followed by consular processing abroad—no in-country adjustment of status is allowed—and approvals can happen in weeks, though backlogs from per-country caps (especially for Indian or Chinese nationals) may still cause delays for the actual green card. This program is separate from the H-1B visa system, which remains a temporary work visa for skilled professionals with issues like annual caps (85,000 visas, including 20,000 for advanced degree holders), a random lottery selection process, and criticisms of abuse (e.g., companies using it to displace U.S. workers or suppress wages via outsourcing firms). In fact, alongside the Gold Card, the Trump administration introduced a separate $100,000 one-time entry fee for H-1B applicants to deter such abuses and ensure only “the best and brightest” use it. https://twitter.com/TheRubberDuck79/status/1998791717752062345?s=20  Autopen. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1998407015756964343?s=20   to decide if it gets a floor vote. I hope they do the right thing. The Affordability Crisis Is Not a ‘Hoax.' It Is an Existential Threat to the American Dream.  Recently, President Trump has been quoted as referring to the affordability crisis as a “Democrat scam,” “hoax,” and “con job.” Although I think Trump was likely trying to remind Americans that policies enacted when Democrats had total control of the federal government under the first two years of the Biden administration accelerated and exacerbated the affordability problem, it is dangerous for the president to use that type of language. Already, mainstream media reprobates are twisting Trump's words, leading people to believe that he is saying the affordability crisis does not exist.  In proper context, Trump is not denying that middle- and lower-class Americans are struggling to make ends meet; rather, he is trying to assign blame and hang the affordability crisis on the Democrats. But even doing that is politically unwise.  The American people are not nearly as concerned with pointing fault as they are with seeking immediately viable solutions to the untenable reality they face. For many Americans, the affordability crisis is so severe that they think the American dream is no longer within reach. In fact, only 22 percent of young Americans think they will be better off than their parents. Source: redstate.com Political/Rights https://twitter.com/TriciaOhio/status/1999146290584678721?s=20 https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1998819294658842681?s=20 https://twitter.com/DHSgov/status/1998773065870708813?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1999144165213380788?s=20 We hope the headlines and social media likes are worth it. DHS: Legacy Media Report Leaves Out an Important Detail on ICE Purchasing Planes for Deportations The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed  the agency has inked a deal for the purchase of six planes for nearly $140 million, which will aid Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in deportations, allowing them to bypass charter airlines. The Post report read: https://twitter.com/TriciaOhio/status/1998794208736411870?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1998794208736411870%7Ctwgr%5Ebd9d4a7f5e7443f5f0455bfbeb427e17d3fa2b05%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fkatie-jerkovich%2F2025%2F12%2F10%2Fdhs-confirms-excellent-news-about-deportations-and-its-own-fleet-n2197015 flight patterns.    President Trump and @Sec_Noem are committed to quickly and efficiently getting criminal illegal aliens OUT of our country. Source: redstate.com US To Ask Visitors For 5 Years Of Social Media History Under New Plan The United States is planning to require visitors from dozens of countries on the visa waiver program to provide up to five years of their social media history, according to a proposal from the US Customs and Border Protection posted to the Federal Register on Wednesday. Countries on the list include much of Europe, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Qatar, Israel, Chile and Brunei. Citizens or nationals of these countries have been allowed to freely travel to the United States for tourism or business for stays of 90 days or less without obtaining a visa. If the proposal is adopted, they’ll have to share their online footprint – something that immigrant and nonimmigrant visa applicants from different categories have been required to provide since 2019. The list also includes; Telephone numbers used in the last five years Email addresses used in the last 10 years IP addresses and metadata from electronically submitted photos Biometrics – including facial, fingerprint, DNA and Iris data Information about one’s family – including  names, telephone numbers, dates of birth, places of birth and residences. The CBP proposal is open for a 60-day public comment period. ESTA – an automated system, costs $40 and is generally valid for two years. An ESTA holder can enter multiple times during that period. Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/FBIDirectorKash/status/1998484877180604877?s=20   is part of the FBI's Joint Task Force Vulcan investigation out of @FBIHouston to locate, indict, and arrest members of MS-13 leadership “La Mesa.” Great work from @FBIOmaha and partners @HSI_HQ @DEAHQ and more – this admin is taking a whole of government approach to dismantling MS-13 and their presence within the country. DOGE https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1998810382576792048?s=20 https://twitter.com/pepesgrandma/status/1998428503759294519?s=20   EU High Level Group on combating hate speech and hate crime that wrote the 2016 Code of Conduct. The Code Conduct is a document agreed upon by social media companies for removing hate. The improved upon “Code of Conduct Plus” continues to be an important tool under the DSA: “On 20 January 2025, the revised Code of conduct on countering illegal hate speech online + (the ‘Code of conduct+') was integrated into the regulatory framework of the Digital Services Act (DSA), following a positive assessment from the Commission and the European Board for Digital Services. The Code of conduct+, which builds on the Code of Conduct adopted in 2016, strengthens the way online platforms deal with content deemed illegal hate speech according to EU law and Member States' laws. It facilitates compliance with and the effective enforcement of the DSA in this specific area.” This new Conduct Code+ was established as a “DSA Code of conduct”. This empowered civil society organisations to act as watchdogs. “Following its integration, adherence to the Code of conduct+ may be considered as an appropriate risk mitigation measure for signatories designated as Very Large Online Platforms (VLOPs) and Search Engines (VLOSEs) under the DSA.” “The DSA classifies platforms or search engines that have more than 45 million users per month in the EU as very large online platforms (VLOPs)” https://twitter.com/emd_worldwide/status/1998556257251152246?s=20   letter confirms the details of that action. And it arrives at a very appropriate moment. As we watch certain officials in Europe experiment with coercive fines, regulatory threats, and pressure campaigns aimed at shaping American political discourse, the Moraes precedent is worth remembering. The United States views foreign attempts to control U.S. speech as a human rights violation and a breach of sovereignty. Geopolitical https://twitter.com/RMistereggen/status/1998419619220996236?s=20 society destabilised? When a country must hand over cash to escape a policy that harms it, the structure stops looking like a union and starts looking like organized coercion. Let's call the EU what it is: its a mafia organisation. Abolish the EU. Unelected Brussels Bureaucrat Demands Trump ‘Show Respect' for EU, as US President Is Chosen ‘The Most Powerful Person in Europe'   Trump is flexing his political and military muscles all over the world. Those who want respect, give respect.     Trump has just been chosen as ‘the most powerful person in Europe'. ‘ Politico reported: “Top EU officials tried to set the record straight Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump denounced Europe as a ‘decaying' group of countries ruled by ‘weak' leaders. […] ‘I think they're weak', the Republican said, referring to the continent's presidents and prime ministers, adding, ‘I think they don't know what to do. Europe doesn't know what to do'.” “European Council President António Costa said Europe and the U.S. ‘must act as allies' — and urged the Republican leader to show ‘respect'.   Costa is an unelected bureaucrat – he was not ‘elected', he was ‘appointed' by the same Globalist leaders that are polling 11% to 23% in their countries. Source: thegatewaypundit.com War/Peace https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1998980234763219052?s=20https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1999068890421195037?s=20   Impeccable. This clip emerged just as Maria Corina Machado, the woman Maduro has hunted for 16 months, escaped Venezuela and arrived in Oslo to accept the Nobel Peace Prize for fighting his dictatorship. His secret police surrounded the U.S. Embassy thinking she was inside. She slipped out of the country anyway. Her team risked their lives to get her on that plane. Meanwhile, Maduro is on stage crooning about peace. The irony writes itself. https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1998936856000397477?s=20   showed up in Norway anyway. The 58-year-old opposition leader arrived in Oslo Thursday and waved from the balcony of the Grand Hotel, free and defiant. The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded her the prize for her fight against what it called a dictatorship. Maduro’s regime tried everything to stop this moment. It didn’t work.  https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/1999068890421195037?s=20   freely in accordance with the regime. https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1999065856580661500?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1998879421491483071?s=20   Investigation, Homeland Security Investigations, and the United States Coast Guard, with support from the Department of War, executed a seizure warrant for a crude oil tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran.” “For multiple years, the oil tanker has been sanctioned by the United States due to its involvement in an illicit oil shipping network supporting foreign terrorist organizations. This seizure, completed off the coast of Venezuela, was conducted safely and securely—and our investigation alongside the Department of Homeland Security to prevent the transport of sanctioned oil continues.” https://twitter.com/FBIDirectorKash/status/1998895443347124514?s=20 https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1999140870516576385?s=20  6th no-confidence vote, Zhelezaykov said, “I hear the public's dissatisfaction and consider the protection of democracy my top priority,” choosing to step down. Protests erupted in November over a 2026 budget packed with tax hikes, higher social contributions, and bloated spending. Even after scrapping the budget, crowds demanded total regime change, early elections, and a crackdown on corruption, culminating in massive rallies yesterday across Sofia and beyond. This is a rare public uprising toppling a government in real-time! With Bulgaria set to join the eurozone on January 1, the collapse risks economic chaos, currency shifts, investor panic, while exposing deep rot (corruption scandals cost $3B yearly, per EU audits). Zhelezaykov's exit might spark a power vacuum, pitting pro-EU reformers against nationalist factions. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1998875723931812291?s=20 https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1999099346676334925?s=20  Allegations that some staff members may have ties to Hamas, with zero indictments, no formal charges, and no due process. Washington, once UNRWA's biggest donor, froze funding in January 2024 after Israel accused roughly a dozen staff members of involvement in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack that triggered the war. If the move goes through, it would effectively criminalize a major arm of humanitarian relief in Gaza and beyond. Although, it’s been noted that such sanctions would be highly unusual, since the U.S. is both a U.N. member and the host nation of the body that created the agency in 1949. Despite this, Trump previously reaffirmed that the U.S. would not fund UNRWA earlier this year. In October, Secretary of State Marco Rubio also referred to UNRWA as a subsidiary of Hamas: “UNRWA’s not going to play any role in it… The United Nations is here, we're seeing the work they're doing… They’re on the ground. We’re willing to work with them if they can make it work, but not UNRWA. UNRWA became a subsidiary of Hamas.” https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/1998824786022003044?s=20  billion they seized might well come up   https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/1998849819071353071?s=20   is going to demand their frozen assets be returned. I suspect the current people in power don't expect to be around or forced to deal with that problem when it arises. They just want their money laundering schemes to continue being funded. Short term planning by the EU. https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1998991133033054636?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1998991133033054636%7Ctwgr%5E279dcf506be99c0c99616930f129b9a99fcd7bf2%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F12%2Fwatch-ukraine-strikes-another-oil-tanker-russian-shadow%2F https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1999118921564090787?s=20 Trump talks Ukraine peace deal with Macron, Merz and Starmer President Donald Trump held a conference call with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Wednesday to discuss the war in Ukraine, a White House official said, as the U.S. president continues to push for an end to the conflict while expressing skepticism that Kyiv stands a chance of coming out ahead. Source: politico.com Zelenskyy Signals Openness to Elections After Trump Criticism President Donald Trump on Tuesday pressed Ukraine to hold a presidential election despite its war with Russia, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to say he is prepared to hold a vote within months if parliament and Western allies make it feasible. Zelenskyy responded, saying the decision is solely for Ukrainians. “This is a question for the people of Ukraine, not people from other states, with all due respect to our partners,” he said. Ukraine’s constitution bars elections under martial law, but Zelenskyy signaled he’s willing to hold one anyway and asked the U.S. and European partners for help securing a wartime vote. “Since this question is raised today by the president of the United States of America, our partners, I will answer very briefly: Look, I am ready for elections,” he said. “Then, in the next 60 to 90 days, Ukraine will be ready to hold the elections. I personally have the will and readiness for this.” Zelenskyy’s five-year term expired in May 2024. Source: newsmax.com Medical/False Flags FDA Reviewing Deaths Potentially Linked to COVID Shots The Food and Drug Administration is looking into whether COVID-19 vaccines were tied to any deaths, government officials announced this week. The FDA is “doing a thorough investigation, across multiple age groups, of deaths potentially related to COVID vaccines,” Andrew Nixon. a spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, said in a statement. Manufacturers report that the FDA is also reviewing the safety of RSV immunizations. COVID-19 vaccines were deployed in late 2020 under emergency use authorization. Less than a year later, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine became the first to receive full FDA approval. Source: newsmax.com [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1998789285281968322?s=20  with all the other America-hating Somalis! https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1998806184846045404?s=20 BREAKING: Democrats Flip Miami – Eileen Higgins Wins Mayoral Runoff Election: Decision Desk Democrats flipped Miami Mayor's office on Tuesday. Higgins defeated Republican Emilio Gonzalez, a former Miami City Manager who served on Trump's DHS transition team. Higgins will be Miami's first Democrat mayor since 1997. Fox News reported: It took nearly 30 years, but Democrats finally broke their decades-long ballot box losing streak in Miami, Florida, the city known as the nation's “Gateway to Latin America.” Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/chad_mizelle/status/1998565231136747996?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1998912315672977728?s=20   are: Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., Nicole Malliotakis, R-N.Y., Nick LaLota, R-N.Y., Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., Rob Bresnahan, R-Pa., Don Bacon, R-Neb., Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., Tom Kean, R-N.J., Ryan Mackenzie, R-Pa., Zach Nunn, R-Iowa, Chris Smith, R-N.J., Pete Stauber, R-Minn., and Mike Turner, R-Ohio. Full passage vote could happen Thursday. President Trump's Plan REVEALED: DC pipe bomb suspect obsessed with My Little Pony art, fan fic: report My Little Pony is a franchise marketed at young girls. An adult male fan of the toys are known as a “Brony,” a community that at its peak was large enough to hold annual conventions. Brian Cole Jr, the man charged with placing pipe bombs outside the Republican and Democratic National Committees' Washington, DC headquarters the evening before January 6, 2021, was reportedly a massive fan of the children's series “My Little Pony,” making fan art and fan fiction dedicated to the characters.Per the New York Post, Cole, 30, appeared to have gone by usernames including iDeltaVelocity, Bron1Delta, Delta1Forgotten, and Blue Velocity online. In one account on an online forum, Cole allegedly posted dozens of fan art pieces dedicated to the My Little Pony franchise. Many of the art pieces feature characters with light purple bodies and multicolored hair.In a Tumblr account associated with the username delta1forgotten, Cole allegedly wrote in response to another user's drawing of a My Little Pony character with a machine gun, “Eh… I'd give her an RPG [Rocket-Propelled Grenade]. What can I say? Explosions are COOL!!”My Little Pony is a franchise marketed at young girls. An adult male fan of the toys are known as a “Brony,” a community that at its peak was large enough to hold annual conventions. Assistant Professor of Psychology Dr Daniel Chadborn wrote in his book “Meet the Bronies: The Psychology of the Adult My Little Pony Fandom,” “The subculture of Bronies was very online and unique and attracted a lot of male fans, who were breaking gender norms, which attracted a lot of attention.”He noted that the subculture is generally not sexual, however, he is not surprised that some members within the community are troubled. “Someone who is disaffected is often going to look for spaces to engage in, for a sense of identity and belonging.”Cole also allegedly wrote fanfiction dedicated to the franchise, with one story marked as being an “adventure/horror” story featuring the characters Applejack and Applebloom  Source: thepostmillenial.com Winning: Woke D.C. Police Chief Stepping Down Following Trump's Bold Moves to Federalize the DC Police Force and Send in National Guard https://twitter.com/MayorBowser/status/1997992364367884758?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1997992364367884758%7Ctwgr%5Edc94739b1880255ed9a381d0aefa9d1b2da25236%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F12%2Fwinning-woke-d-c-police-chief-stepping-down%2F ‘Righteous Anger’: Erika Kirk Shuts Down Insane Conspiracies Surrounding Her Husband’s Murder Erika Kirk appears to have possibly reached her breaking point as she addressed those insane conspiracies surrounding the murder of her husband, Charlie Kirk, and to say she didn’t hold back is a serious understatement. During her appearance on Wednesday on Fox News’ Outnumbered, Kirk was asked about the accusations and claims floated by podcasters like Candace Owens and others surrounding the assassination of the late co-founder of Turning Point USA, including speculation about where Charlie is buried. No rock will be unturned. I want justice for my husband, for myself, for my family more than anyone else out there. “My silence does not mean that I’m complacent,” Erika continued. “My silence does not mean that somehow Turning Point USA and all of the handpicked staff that loved my husband and that my husband loved them is somehow in on it. We are busy building.” Erika said she understands a lot of the noise is people trying to find answers to the horrific killing of her husband, and made it clear no “rock will be unturned. I want justice for my husband, for myself, for my family more than anyone else out there.” Kirk said she does have a breaking point, though, and it’s when influencers and others go after those she loves, like her family, her Turning Point USA family, and her Charlie Kirk Show family. “When you go after the people that I love, and you’re making hundreds and thousands of dollars every single episode, going after the people that I love because somehow they’re in on this… NO!” Erika said, as the host Harris Faulkner pointed out, she’d never seen Kirk like this before. “This is righteous anger because this is not okay, it’s not healthy,” she added. “This is a mind virus… but this is not okay. But just know your words are very powerful, and we are human.” “My team are not machines and they’re not robots, they are human,” Erika continued. “We have more death threats on our team and our side than I have ever seen. I have kidnapping threats. I have…you name it, we have it. And my poor team is exhausted, and every time they bring this back up, what are we supposed to do, relive that trauma all over again?”  . Source: redstate.com https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/1998877640862904429?s=20 https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/1998867607429292200?s=20 2846 Feb 21, 2019 12:02:07 PM EST Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: 6b73ac No. 5304336  Dz8HH2lWwAIQX5K.jpg-large.jpg https://twitter.com/JudahsTrumpets/status/1098604676621189122 Be ready for the ‘Q’, Anon(s). Eyes on increasing +each day. You are the NEWS NOW. Handle w/ care. Q 3628 Nov 25, 2019 12:05:46 PM EST Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: 000000 No. 7370121  https://twitter.com/Incarcerated_ET/status/1198990090757914625 Enemy of the People. You are the NEWS NOW. Facts matter. Q https://twitter.com/medeabenjamin/status/1998886707891155231?s=20 https://twitter.com/_johnnymaga/status/1999140426222088595?s=20 https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1938072642374058297?s=20  Bejamin briefly – who had an interesting history of speaking to Chinese media. She co-founded Global Exchange with her husband, Kevin Danaher, which goes on a number of “Reality Trips” to various closed countries – Cuba, Venezuela, among others. If you’ve followed me long enough … you know that’s a big red flag. State-facilitated exchange trips are one of the most common “soft power” tools that countries have in exporting their ideology to others. https://twitter.com/AAGDhillon/status/1998429763744976927?s=20 Supreme Court OKs Trump's Firing Of Biden FTC Appointee The U.S. Supreme Court handed President Donald Trump a significant victory, ruling that he can remove Federal Trade Commission leader Rebecca Slaughter after months of legal challenges. Trump has sought to dismiss Slaughter, a Democrat appointed by former President Joe Biden, since March. The court also agreed to consider whether presidents may dismiss FTC commissioners without cause. In the meantime, Slaughter will not be allowed to remain in office. Source:  conservativebrief.com  https://twitter.com/amuse/status/1998163014336561437?s=20 https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/1998237338678563300?s=20 Trump Sinks Anonymous Reports by Reaffirming Support for Hegseth, Noem Trump sunk the anonymous reports while fielding questions from the press during a roundtable with tech CEO in the Roosevelt Room on Wednesday. https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1998886540215472413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1998886540215472413%7Ctwgr%5Ec250eb4c9bce232b03b56224d33227964e8f8b05%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Ft%2Fassets%2Fhtml%2Ftweet-5.html1998886540215472413 Trump's comments follow an Atlantic report that Trump “is starting to tire of the scandals surrounding Hegseth,” citing “an outside adviser to the White House and a former senior administration official.”They also come on the heels of an MS Now report, citing two anonymous sources, and claiming that “White House officials have grown frustrated with Kristi Noem's leadership of the Department of Homeland Security, leading to calls for a new secretary to more aggressively support key parts of the president's deportation agenda.” Source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/1999130198906728645?s=20 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1998453138857099684?s=20   primarily Nordic-German. Importing voters is a CERTAIN path to a single-party supermajority and has ALREADY happened at the state level in California and New York. It also explains why those states have BANNED VOTER ID in order to accelerate a permanent socialist supermajority, destroying any semblance of democracy. We stand on the precipice of disaster, an end to America. https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1998769742455435403?s=20   say stupid stuff like “I’m not voting in the mid-terms.” The Constitutional powers of the President are limited by design. Moreover, Trump faces unique challenges in an intransigent Deep State and an array of rogue judges, neither of which any other President has faced at this scale. Nevertheless, in less than a year Trump has kept more of his campaign promises than any other President since FDR. Some of you people need to wise up. There is no Government Fairy. It’s a hard slog, and we’re winning–unless YOU mess it up, Doomsters. Don’t mess it up. https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1998827695439004144?s=20  care, the GOP deserves it.” This is self-fulfilling prophecy. It suppresses voter enthusiasm, suppresses voter turn out, and creates exactly the barren ground that Leftists have come to expect from a conservative movement that seems determined to fail at every turn even when it is winning. *versus* 2. “I am so happy that we have made so much progress. Trump has done amazing things in a short period of time against unprecedented institutional resistance. We are winning and I can see the light at the end of the tunnel for the restoration of our Constitutional republic. Nevertheless, there is much to be done. President Trump and the true conservatives in Congress need our enthusiastic, vocal support. We must keep the pressure on the eGOP, the Democrats and the lying media. This is a tough battle, but we will win.” THAT my friends is a message of victory. It too becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as it inspires the voting base yet does not ignore the work yet to be done. It’s winning. ————————— Allow me to paraphrase Napoleon Bonaparte: “In politics, the moral is to the physical as three is to one.” _________________________ In other words, why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves, Moriarity. https://twitter.com/Avis_Liberatum/status/1998829654241694036?s=20 https://twitter.com/MattMorseTV/status/1998541820285145219?s=20    and for America itself. In all fairness, the Democrats have been doing Redistricting for years, and continue to do so. Unfortunately, Indiana Senate “Leader” Rod Bray enjoys being the only person in the United States of America who is against Republicans picking up extra seats, in Indiana's case, two of them. He is putting every ounce of his limited strength into asking his soon to be very vulnerable friends to vote with him. By doing so, he is putting the Majority in the House of Representatives, Washington, D.C., at risk and, at the same time, putting anybody in Indiana who votes against this Redistricting, likewise, at risk. The people of Indiana don't want the Party of Sleepy Joe Biden, Kamala, Ilhan Omar, or the rest to succeed in Washington. Bray doesn't care. He's either a bad guy, or a very stupid one! In any event, he and a couple of his friends will partner with the Radical Left Democrats. They found some Republican “SUCKERS,” and they couldn't be happier that they did! Guys like Failed Senate Candidate Mitch Daniels, who I opposed in his Race against Senator Jim Banks, and Cam Savage, whoever that is, are fighting against the Republican Party, all the way. Bray and his friends are the favorite Republicans of Hakeem Jeffries, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, and Cryin' Chuck Schumer. Anybody that votes against Redistricting, and the SUCCESS of the Republican Party in D.C., will be, I am sure, met with a MAGA Primary in the Spring. If Republicans will not do what is necessary to save our Country, they will eventually lose everything to the Democrats. Rod Bray and his friends won't be in Politics for long, and I will do everything within my power to make sure that they will not hurt the Republican Party, and our Country, again. One of my favorite States, Indiana, will be the only State in the Union to turn the Republican Party down! Master Messenger: Trump Goes Full MAGA at Pennsylvania Rally, Hands GOP the 2026 Talking Points The master messenger is at it again, this time handing the GOP the 2026 midterm talking points directly. During a rally Tuesday evening in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, President Trump reminded both Republicans and Democrats of just how savvy a messenger he can be when energizing his base. He crushed former President Joe Biden and his administration for overseeing the runaway inflation we are still battling today. He discussed his efforts to bring higher wage jobs to American workers, not illegal aliens. He dismantled Obamacare, highlighting high costs and the trillions in taxpayer dollars given to insurance companies instead of the American people. President Trump went full MAGA. The  message was clear: Republicans, take this message and run with it during the 2026 midterm election cycle. President Trump tore apart Obamacare. He is tired of insurance companies lining their pockets with Obamacare subsidies, and stated once again that he wants that money sent directly to the American people. Imagine being able to use your own money to purchase health insurance instead of those dollars going straight to the insurance companies? For Republicans in 2026, this is a smart policy that could excite the base in an election cycle where President Trump is not on the ballot. Healthcare across America, in many cases, is unaffordable and frustrating. This is certainly an area where the GOP can make up ground with sound policy ideas. President Trump has essentially closed our southern border by the sheer power he wields through the executive branch. The administration has now moved to tackle illegal immigration within our borders, in regards to both deportations and American jobs taken by illegal aliens.  Since President Trump took office, 100 percent of all net job creation has gone to American citizens. That is an amazing statistic that every GOP House and Senate member should be touting on the campaign trail. Not for nothing, but President Trump is also clearly tired of immigrants coming to America who do not care to fully assimilate or share our values. President Trump also announced a permanent pause on third-world migration, “including from hellholes like Afghanistan, Haiti, Somalia, and many other countries.” This is a very smart and, frankly, important policy. During the recent off-year election cycle, many Americans learned for the first time how many third-world immigrants have infiltrated major American cities. This is a winning message and one the GOP should carry into 2026. Finally, the deadly drugs have got to stop flowing into this country. President Trump has taken lethal action that is sure to have every drug boat planning to bring drugs to America second-guessing that decision. For some Republicans who support Trump’s policy but have struggled to properly communicate the importance to their constituents, the president simplified the issue for the entire party. Source: redstate.com https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/1998449163403419722?s=20  ALL THE INFORMATION.” LFG  One thing I know is that the American public (outside of X) needs to understand how rigged and fake our elections are before we have another election in this country. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the Fed's path as inflation remains above its target and the labor market continues cooling.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Yesterday, the FOMC meeting delivered another quarter percentage point rate cut. Today we're here to discuss what happens next.It's Thursday, December 11th at 8:30 AM in New York. So, Mike, once again, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. That outcome was not a surprise, and the markets reacted positively. But there were some surprises. A bit of a divided FOMC, if you will. How did things play out during the meeting and what are some important takeaways to keep in mind? Michael Gapen: Yeah, well certainly Matt, it is a divided committee. I think that's clear. I think one key takeaway for me is the idea that the Fed is done with risk management rate cuts, and now we're back to data dependent. So, what does that mean? I mean, a risk management rate cut isn't necessarily about the data you have in hand and the data you see; it's your view about the distribution of risks around that. So, in some ways, you're not data dependent when you're making those cuts. Now, I think the challenge at this press conference for Powell was to say, ‘Well, now things are different.' And it was a nuance in the sense that cuts from here, if and when they come, will be data dependent. But I think at the same time he did not want to communicate that the bar for those rate cuts were exceptionally high. But I think he threaded the needle quite well in transitioning from risk management cuts, which aren't data dependent to an outlook, which is now more data dependent. And I thought he did that artfully well. So, for me, that's the big key. Secondarily I'd add a takeaway for me was he seems fairly confident that inflation will be coming down, and I think he still believes the labor market is cooling. The blend of that came across as a bit dovish to me. And then the third thing I would add is he fairly explicitly ruled out the risk of rate hikes. So, I think the combination of those three things: data dependence, still concerns about cooling in the labor market, and chopping off the upper half of the rate path distribution – those were kind of the key takeaways from my point. Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, with respect to the labor market, Chair Powell did address it in a couple of different ways. But one of the ways that stood out to my ears was how he described some technical factors that people are well aware of – that could mean the economy is actually shedding jobs to the tune of about 20,000 per month. I was wondering if you could just briefly address what those factors – that are supposedly so well known – might be. Michael Gapen: Sure. So, obviously the data that gets released, there are the initial releases and then there are revisions. And in the labor market, there are what are called annual benchmark revisions. So, the BLS released a preliminary estimate of that benchmark revision several months ago, and if you apply that initial estimate, it would suggest that job growth in 2025 could be about 60,000 jobs per month, less than has already been reported. But at the same time, we know immigration controls are slowing growth in the labor force. So, this is what Powell is calling the really curious balance. How can you have employment growth basically zero, maybe even negative, after these revisions come in – and the unemployment rate relatively stable. Yes, it's gone up a few tenths, but not like you would normally expect that rise would be if we were shedding jobs. So that to me is why he… You know; the technical factors about revisions and things that lead them to be, I think, very unsure about where the labor market is; and lean in the direction of thinking lower rates are better to manage those risks than where they were six months ago. Matthew Hornbach: One of the points that you raised in your opening explanation of the meeting was about inflation. And Chair Powell mentioned an expectation that the inflation related to tariffs would be peaking in the first quarter of the year. That sounded very familiar to me because I believe that's your expectation as well. I'm curious. How are you looking at tariffs and the inflation related to tariffs today? And do you agree with Chair Powell still? Michael Gapen: We do. Our modeling of the tariff pass through and our conversations with clients and firms and what we hear on corporate earnings calls suggests that this is a long process. Meaning tariffs go in place, prices don't go up the next month. Firms make pricing decisions that take time to implement. So, we agree that the tariff pass through story will extend into 2026 and likely through the end of the first quarter. And if that's true, then goods prices should continue to move higher. The year-on-year rate of inflation should move higher, peaking at 3 percent or a little above in the first quarter of the year. And then tat effect should we think be over, which would open the door for overall inflation to start coming back down. So, I will use the dreaded T-word. We think ultimately inflation from tariffs will be transitory. And I agree with the Chair's timeline; inflation should peak in the first quarter of the year and then start to trend down. That said, we think inflation will be above the Fed's 2 percent target into 2027, and this is the cost of providing insurance to the labor market. Matthew Hornbach: So finally, all things considered, what is your outlook for Fed policy in 2026? Michael Gapen: Yeah, and the key here, Matt, is that exactly what you just implied about tariffs and inflation still going on into 2026, right? Because what we know is while firms are gauging exactly where they should be pricing, they've been offsetting tariffs through lower demand for labor. So, we think the Fed will be cutting again in January. We have three months of employment data that come across two employment reports between now and the January meeting. We think they will show continued cooling in the labor market. And then we have a second cut next year in in April. So, while tariffs are getting passed through, we think the labor market will continue to cool. And this Fed will be biased to cutting rates to provide support to the labor market in the process. That would mean the federal funds rate gets to 3 – 3.25 percent in the second quarter of 2026, where we think it'll stay.So Matt, I'd like to ask you a question. What I noticed was the rate market backed up going into the meeting, despite the fact that market participants were projecting a cut. And then the rate market rallied, in my view, significantly during the meeting and right after. What do you think was happening there? Matthew Hornbach: So, there's a phenomenon that happens in all markets where investors often speculate on a potential outcome. And if the outcome is then delivered, the follow-on price action is underwhelming. That is colloquially known as buying the rumor and selling the fact. So, I think going into this meeting kind of in line with your expectations, investors were forming very similar expectations about how the FOMC statement itself would change and the implications that that might have for the future of Fed policy. When that hawkish cut was delivered almost exactly as you had expected, Mike, I think, investors started thinking about the future in a slightly different way. Now that their expectations were met with the meeting outcome, they started to consider, the data that is forthcoming. And whenever, officials at the Fed talk about data in the way that Chair Powell spoke about the data – and by which I mean labeled the labor market as potentially losing jobs at the moment, and labeling inflation as transitory, that we'd be past the peak of tariff related inflation after the first quarter of the year. Investors can kind of look at those factors and extrapolate going forward, what that may mean for Fed policy in the first half of 2026. So, I think similar to your expectations for policy after this meeting, investors probably became a bit more confident in your outlook for Fed policy that we would see additional rate cuts in the first half of next year. And then, of course, after the April meeting, the baton will be passed to the next Fed chair, and I think investors are considering what policy might look like under that new regime at the Fed. And on the margin, the view is that the next Fed chair would be more likely than not to continue the process of lowering policy rates. So, I think all of those factors played into the post press conference, and even during the press conference reaction. Michael Gapen: Okay Matt, one last question, if I may. How did the events of the FOMC this week and the market reaction, how does that dovetail with how you're thinking about longer term rates, in particular where you see 10-year yields going? And the dollar? Matthew Hornbach: So, 10-year yields are relatively close to 4 percent at this juncture, and we expect them to drift modestly lower in the first half of 2026, as the Fed continues this process of lowering the policy rate. One point that's very important to make here is that the longer-term Treasury yields today are now sitting well above the Fed's policy rate, and that hasn't been the case for many, many years now. A lot of investors with whom we speak think that longer term yields can head a lot higher from here. But we're skeptical – because the higher that those yields go relative to the Fed's policy rate, the more attractive those bonds become for other investors to buy. So, we don't expect a big increase in longer term interest rates. Unlike some investors, we are expecting interest rates in the long end to remain relatively stable with a downward bias.On the dollar, similarly, we have the dollar continuing its depreciation trend, which it began in January of 2025, earlier this year. We expect that depreciation trend to continue in the first half of 2026 before – similar to the interest rate path – we see a little bit of dollar strength in the second half of the year. And so, you know this being the last FOMC meeting of the year, Mike, I guess we're going to have to take a wait and see approach until the FOMC reconvenes in the new year. Thanks a lot for taking the time to talk about the Fed with me this year. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you Matt. See you in 2026. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Today's episode breaks down the rough NYSE debut of 21 Capital, whose immediate drop suggests markets are no longer willing to award premiums to companies whose only model is selling shares to buy more Bitcoin. The discussion examines why treasury firms are being valued at 1x, what 21's attempt to build real Bitcoin-based businesses signals about the future of the category, and how shifting analyst frameworks—from Standard Chartered's recalibration to institutional-flow–driven models—reflect a maturing market that now demands execution, not narrative. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss their takeaways from yesterday's Fed meeting and break down Oracle's earnings.Song: I Will Possess Your Heart - Death Cab for CutieFor information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit:https://www.narwhal.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

In this week's show Patrick Gray and Adam Boileau discuss the week's cybersecurity news, including: There's a CVSS 10/10 remote code exec in the React javascript server. JS server? U wot mate? China is out popping shells with it Linux adds support for PCIe bus encryption Amnesty International says Intellexa can just TeamViewer into its customers' surveillance systems …and a Belgian murder suspect complains that GrapheneOS's duress wipe feature failed him? This week's episode is sponsored by Kroll Cyber. Simon Onyons is Managing Director at Kroll's Cyber and Data Resilience arm, and he discusses a problem near to many of our hearts. Just how do you explain cyber risk to the board? This episode is also available on Youtube. Show notes Risky Bulletin: APTs go after the React2Shell vulnerability within hours - Risky Business Media Guillermo Rauch on X: "React2Shell" / X React2Shell-CVE-2025-55182-original-poc/README.md at main · lachlan2k/React2Shell-CVE-2025-55182-original-poc · GitHub Hydrogen: Shopify's headless commerce framework Researchers track dozens of organizations affected by React2Shell compromises tied to China's MSS | The Record from Recorded Future News Unveiling WARP PANDA: A New Sophisticated China-Nexus Adversary Three hacking groups, two vulnerabilities and all eyes on China | The Record from Recorded Future News Risky Bulletin: Linux adds PCIe encryption to help secure cloud servers Sean Plankey nomination to lead CISA appears to be over after Thursday vote | CyberScoop

In the wake of an extraordinary Budget – leaked an hour before the Chancellor addressed Parliament – The Spectator brings clarity to a turbulent political and take stock of how the announcements will impact you.Michael Simmons speaks with John Porteous of Charles Stanley and James Nation, formerly of the Treasury and No. 10, to discuss how the events unfolded and the deeper implications for long-term financial planning, taxation and market confidence.The conversation explores whether the government's approach represents a credible fiscal strategy, what savers and investors should infer from changes to ISAs and pensions, and whether concerns about a growing UK ‘brain drain' are justified.This podcast was created in partnership with Charles Stanley; editorial control remained exclusively with The Spectator. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, we were delighted to welcome Neil Chatterjee, Former Commissioner and Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Neil served as FERC Chairman from August –December 2017 and again from October 2018–November 2020. During his tenure, he championed several strategic initiatives, including streamlining the liquified natural gas application review and approval process, and advancing the use of technology to mitigate physical and cyber threats to critical energy infrastructure. Prior to his service at FERC, Neil was an advisor to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and worked for the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. He currently serves as Chief Government Affairs Officer at Palmetto, a Senior Advisor at KKR, a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, and a Senior Policy Advisor at the Climate Leadership Council, in addition to serving on the Bipartisan Policy Center's Board of Directors. We were honored to host Neil at our offices in Houston for an insightful and engaging discussion. In our conversation, we explore Neil's perspective on the evolving U.S. energy landscape amid surging electricity demand, geopolitical pressure, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence. Chatterjee explains the unique structure and independence of FERC, emphasizing that this design has helped the agency maintain policy stability even as presidential administrations swing between dramatically different energy priorities. He argues that energy security has become synonymous with national security and that FERC now sits at the center of balancing reliability, affordability, and decarbonization. The discussion highlights how new pressures from data centers, electrification, and reindustrialization are straining a grid shaped by decades of flat demand and policy drift. Chatterjee also reflects on past regulatory controversies, noting that AI-driven load growth may finally push the country beyond polarized debates about “fossil versus clean energy,” because meeting demand will require every available resource, from gas and coal to solar, storage, nuclear, and distributed generation technologies. Neil dives into the operational, political, and economic complexities of meeting this surge in power demand. Chatterjee outlines the emerging challenge of large-load interconnection is how to quickly connect massive hyperscaler data centers without destabilizing markets or burdening consumers, and praises a recent DOE directive that gives FERC flexibility (linked here), while insisting on quicker pathways to power. He details trade-offs such as hyperscalers funding grid upgrades in exchange for curtailment obligations, growing tension between utility and market-based models, and the need for aggressive permitting reform to build pipelines and transmission. He notes that time-to-power constraints favor near-term solutions such as solar-plus-storage paired with gas peakers, while advanced nuclear and new gas capacity remain years away. Throughout, he stresses the importance of depoliticizing energy policy and “empowering the nerds”— letting engineers, economists, and market designers, not political cycles, guide decisions on reliability, infrastructure, distributed resources, and the evolving relationship between front-of- and behind-the-meter systems. It was a tour de force and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that U.S. markets are laser-focused on Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. On the bond market front, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4.17% (up from 4% two weeks ago) amid growing concern that the Fed may not deliver the multiple interest-rate cuts expected in 2026. He added that a 25-basis point rate cut is anticipated at the meeting and that Chairman Powell's press conference, particularly his tone and comments on Fed independence,

Daleep Singh, Vice Chairman and Global Chief Economist of investment manager PGIM, joins the Inside Economics team to discuss the seismic shifts occurring in the global economy and financial system. The unipolar global economy, which the U.S. dominated for decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has given way to the old normal, a world much like that of the Gilded Age that only ended with World War I. Listen in to hear if Daleep believes this time will be different.Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Stephanie Guild, CIO at Robinhood, on the RiskReversal podcast. The discussion spans various financial topics, including Federal Reserve policies, market trends, and projections for the S&P 500. Stephanie offers insights into the potential for a Santa Claus rally, the valuation of tech stocks, and the impact of consumer behavior on the market. They also explore the effects of AI spending and the sustainability of company valuations like Nvidia and Google. The conversation touches on credit market signals, the role of small businesses, and the significance of investor behavior observed through Robinhood's customer base. They conclude with thoughts on the interplay of government policies and market stability, particularly highlighting the implications of intertwined Federal Reserve and Treasury actions. Show Notes Microsoft Lowers Sales Staff's Growth Targets For Newer AI Software (The Information) -- FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this jaw-dropping episode, Tara uncovers a stunning web of fraud — from Minnesota to Maine — involving nonprofit scams, migrant services agencies, Medicaid billing, and even money allegedly funneled to build paramilitary forces overseas.

In this episode, Craig Jeffery discusses the GENIUS Act and its impact on treasury, from payment stablecoins and tokenized assets to what treasurers should expect from banks and tech providers. Backed by recent survey results, this episode breaks down the framework, adoption trends, and what to watch as digital asset regulation takes hold in 2026 and beyond. Register for the upcoming webinar on the GENIUS Act and flash survey results here.  

The Deaths of Antony and Cleopatra: Colleague Barry Strauss recounts that back in Alexandria, negotiations fail as Octavian closes in to secure Egypt's treasury; Antony's remaining forces defect, leading to his suicide in Cleopatra's arms, and realizing Octavian plans to parade her in Rome and kill her son Caesarion, Cleopatra commits suicide, likely via snakebite.

In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, co-host Telis Demos is joined by WSJ markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang to discuss the return of investor optimism as the S&P 500 approaches all-time highs ahead of the FOMC's upcoming meeting. They also analyze the next test for the AI trade: earnings from Oracle and Adobe this week. Plus, the U.S. dollar is sliding as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut rates while Japan signals hikes. The hosts discuss how this could drive capital abroad. After the break, Telis sits with Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure and product head for the global collateral platform at BNY, to discuss the Fed's other big decision: How large a balance sheet should it maintain? Wuerffel, a former New York Fed official, explains the mechanics of quantitative tightening and the risks of "scarce” reserves. They explore how liquidity in the "plumbing" of the financial system affects everyday consumers through higher mortgage costs and discuss the importance of a liquid Treasury market in preventing crises like 2023's Silicon Valley Bank failure. This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for Live Markets, and Telis Demos, Heard on the Street's banking and money columnist, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading The Fed's Tool for Calming Short-Term Funding Markets Is Being Tested Fed's Williams Expects Central Bank to Return to Asset Purchases Soon The Fed's $6.6 Trillion Test: When to End Its Portfolio Runoff A Little Dual Easing Soon Could Help the Fed Avoid Major Easing Later The Repo Market: What It Is, and Why Everyone Is Talking About It Again For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Follow Gunjan Banerji here and Telis Demos here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

In this power-packed conversation, Eric sits down with Sean Kingsbury, VP of Cybersecurity and Account Executive for the Department of Treasury at SAIC, to reveal exactly how small businesses can partner with one of the biggest integrators in the game. Sean breaks down when to approach primes, how SAIC vets potential partners, the role of their small business POC, and what capabilities are in highest demand—especially around cyber, AI agents, automation, and risk reduction. If you've ever wondered how to get noticed, when to reach out, or what SAIC actually looks for in a teaming partner… this episode gives you the blueprint. Key Takeaways Approach SAIC early and after RFP release—both windows matter. They actively evaluate small businesses through a dedicated intake and vetting process. Come prepared. Do your research, know SAIC's missions, and clearly articulate capabilities, past performance, and where you fit in their ecosystem. Cyber + AI are high-priority needs. SAIC is looking for innovative small businesses with solutions that reduce risk, workload, and cost through measurable outcomes. Learn more: https://federalhelpcenter.com/ https://govcongiants.org/  Watch the full Youtube Episode here: https://youtu.be/3VdqtfH0ivw 

Tether recently added 26 tons of gold in Q3 alone, bringing its holdings to 116 tons—surpassing the reserves of several central banks, including Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Brazil. “The danger is if any one of these other assets drops to… zero… they're not covering one to one,” warns Clive Thompson, retired Managing Director of Union Bancaire Privée. In this episode, Daniela Combone sits down with Thompson to dissect Tether's $14 billion gold hoard, explore why the stablecoin giant continues snapping up bullion while its Treasury holdings lag behind its liabilities, and discuss whether this is a savvy hedge or a signal of deeper cracks in the financial system.✅ FREE RESOURCESDownload The Private Wealth Playbook — a data-backed guide to strategically acquiring gold and silver for maximum protection, privacy, and performance. Plus, get Daniela Cambone's Top 10 Lessons to safeguard your wealth (FREE)

An exponential Disciple-Making Movement requires real resources. But what if you could give once and fund disciple-making forever? Most ministries are stuck in an endless fundraising cycle. They spend more time chasing dollars than making disciples. But here's the reality: our discipleship model already multiplies on its own. The constraint isn't the engine—it's predictable, sustainable funding.In this video, Jeremy introduces the Discipleship Impact Fund (DIF)—a perpetual treasury designed to preserve your principal while funding disciple-making from yield, year after year. This isn't about one-time appeals or constant asks. This is about building a funding machine that works for generations.Here's what you'll discover:Why perpetual funding beats one-off donations for long-term Kingdom impactHow the DIF actually works (principal stays protected, distributions come from growth)The guardrails in place: board oversight, accountability, and disciplined stewardshipSmart giving strategies: DAF, appreciated stock, bitcoin, real estate, business equityHow your partnership scales a proven movement (5× growth, 88/10/2 financial stewardship)The numbers don't lie. Ordinary Movement has grown exponentially because ordinary people stepped into their calling. But to reach 100,000 disciple-makers, we need sustainable infrastructure. The DIF makes that possible.What if your giving could multiply disciples long after you're gone?This isn't just about funding a ministry. It's about creating a perpetual discipleship machine that outlives all of us and continues the Great Commission for generations. When you give to the DIF, you're not writing a check—you're building a legacy.Ready to take the next step?Learn more about the DIF → https://ordinarymovement.com/difPartner with OM (monthly or one-time) → https://ordinarymovement.com/partnerDownload our 2025 Ministry Overview → https://static1.squarespace.com/static/652d4067260c732edd010a67/t/690baed7e8cf99739a38ce5f/1762373335451/2025+Full+Ministry+Overview.pdf---Ordinary Movement is a discipleship platform that equips men and women to be disciples who make disciples. Our focus is on supporting small groups led by ordinary/everyday Christians. We have specialized discipleship tracks that center around Intimacy with Jesus, Intentional Relationships, and Multiplication. Groups are designed for individuals to easily engage in leading groups.Ready to be a disciple who makes disciples?If so, come and join us!Visit ordinarymovement.com to learn more!#discipleship #disciplemaking #disciple

Global bond yields rise amid complicated pictures in the USA and Japan. Treasurys saw yields rise on stronger U.S. jobs data, while deepening expectations of a rate hike by the BOJ sees JGB prices fall. Elsewhere, Netflix has reportedly won the battle over Warner Bros Discovery; and Meta shares rise on reports the company is planning sweeping cuts to its ‘metaverse' unit, a former darling of CEO Mark Zuckerburg.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

With no sign of where the Deepmar Penal Colony prisoners or staff went to be found, our heroes must begin a more thorough search of the colony's structures to find more clues. Where did everyone go? What disturbing omens from our party's pasts may come to light? Find out now! Website: hideouslaughterpodcast.com Patreon: patreon.com/hideouslaughter Ko-Fi: https://ko-fi.com/hideouslaughterproductions  BESTOW CURSE RSS: https://feed.podbean.com/bestowcurse/feed.xml Etsy: https://www.etsy.com/shop/HideousLaughterPod Discord: https://discord.gg/ruG6hxB Email: thehideouslaughterpodcast@gmail.com Twitter: @laughterhideous Facebook/Instagram: @hideouslaughterpod Reddit: reddit.com/r/HideousLaughter Produced by Allard LaRue @ Lossless Productions Theme Song By Dark Fantasy Studio

Bart Smith, CEO and Chairman of Avalanche Treasury Co., joined me to discuss building a new digital asset treasury company focused on AVAX, which is merging with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. (MLAC) to become a publicly traded company on Nasdaq.Topics:- Avalanche Treasury Co overview - Why Avalanche Avax? - Expanding the Avalanche ecosystem - Future of DATs - DATS vs ETFs Brought to you by

Can a 'Bitcoin Treasury' Company help move bitcoin to become a medium of exchange? $ BTC 92,263 Block height 926,291 In this episode of the Once Bitten podcast, Daniel Prince interviews Danny Scott, the founder and CEO of Coin Corner and Chief Bitcoin Officer for B-Hodl, and Dave Boylan, the CFO for both Coin Corner and B-Hodl, about their new Bitcoin treasury company B-Hodl and the state of the Bitcoin market. Danny explains how yield can be generated through holding Bitcoin in lightning channels. When a payment is routed through a Lightning Network node, the node operator can take a small cut, generating yield on the Bitcoin locked in the channel. Dave explains that if a company's market cap is less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds, it could be vulnerable to a takeover. BHODL also have a grant scheme that shares one per cent of their raises to bitcoin projects, which can apply on their website. And find out why their best ever performing tweet involved CMO Molly's feet. A huge thank you to Danny and Dave for coming on the show, learn more at the links below: https://www.bhodl.com/ Follow Danny here: @CoinCornerDanny Follow Dave here: @CoinCornerDave Check out my book ‘Choose Life' - https://bitcoinbook.shop/search?q=prince ALL LINKS HERE - FOR DISCOUNTS AND OFFERS - https://vida.page/princey - https://linktr.ee/princey21m Pleb Service Announcements: Join 19 thousand Bitcoiners on @cluborange https://signup.cluborange.org/co/princey Support the pod via @fountain_app -https://fountain.fm/show/2oJTnUm5VKs3xmSVdf5n The Once Bitten YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Princey21m The Bitcoin And Show: https://www.bitcoinandshow.com/ https://fountain.fm/show/eK5XaSb3UaLRavU3lYrI Shills and Mench's: RELAI - STACK SATS - www.relai.me/Bitten Use Code BITTEN BITBOX - SELF CUSTODY YOUR BITCOIN - www.bitbox.swiss/bitten Use Code BITTEN PAY WITH FLASH. Accept Bitcoin on your website or platform with no-code and low-code integrations. https://paywithflash.com/ GEYSER - fund bitcoin projects you love - https://geyser.fund/ SWAN BITCOIN - www.swan.com/bitten PLEBEIAN MARKET - BUY AND SELL STUFF FOR SATS; https://plebeian.market/ @PlebeianMarket ZAPRITE - https://zaprite.com/bitten - Invoicing and accounting for Bitcoiners - Save $40 KONSENSUS NETWORK - Buy bitcoin books in different languages. Use code BITTEN for 10% discount - https://bitcoinbook.shop?ref=bitten SEEDOR STEEL PLATE BACK-UP - @seedor_io use the code BITTEN for a 5% discount. www.seedor.io/BITTEN SATSBACK - Shop online and earn back sats! https://satsback.com/register/5AxjyPRZV8PNJGlM HEATBIT - Home Bitcoin mining - https://www.heatbit.com/?ref=DANIELPRINCE - Use code BITTEN. CRYPTOTAG STEEL PLATE BACK-UP https://cryptotag.io - USE CODE BITTEN for 10% discount.

The Office for Budget Responsibility is supposed to be the calm, quiet body that keeps watch over Britain's public finances. But after it accidentally released its Budget analysis before Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her statement, its chair Richard Hughes resigned and the watchdog suddenly became the lead story. Today on The Bunker, Seth Thévoz is joined by economist and former Treasury adviser Giles Wilkes to ask: what exactly is the OBR, and why does this low-profile institution hold so much power over the UK economy?   • Head to nakedwines.co.uk/thebunker to get 6 top-rated wines from our sponsor Naked Wines for £39.99, delivery included. www.patreon.com/bunkercast  Follow us on BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/bunkerpod.bsky.social  • Advertisers! Want to reach smart, engaged, influential people with money to spend? (Yes, they do exist). Some 3.5 MILLION people download and watch our podcasts every month – and they love our shows. Why not get YOUR brand in front of our influential listeners with podcast advertising? Contact ads@podmasters.co.uk to find out more. Written and presented by Seth Thévoz. Producer: Liam Tait. Audio producer: Robin Leeburn. Managing editor: Jacob Jarvis. Design by James Parrett. Music by Kenny Dickinson. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This Day in Legal History: SkidmoreOn December 4, 1944, the U.S. Supreme Court issued its decision in Skidmore v. Swift & Co., a case interpreting the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA). The plaintiffs were firefighters employed by a private company who sought overtime pay for time spent waiting on the employer's premises, even when not actively fighting fires. The Court ruled that such “waiting time” could qualify as compensable work depending on the circumstances — a fact-intensive inquiry rather than a rigid rule. More significantly, the Court declined to treat the Department of Labor's interpretation of the FLSA as binding. Instead, Justice Jackson, writing for the Court, articulated what became known as “Skidmore deference,” explaining that agency interpretations are entitled to respect based on their “power to persuade,” not their authority.This approach emphasized judicial independence while still valuing agency expertise, setting a flexible standard for reviewing administrative interpretations. For decades, Skidmore shaped the way courts evaluated regulatory guidance, particularly where statutes were silent or ambiguous. That changed in 1984, when the Court decided Chevron U.S.A., Inc. v. NRDC, introducing a more deferential, two-step test that often required courts to uphold reasonable agency interpretations. Chevron effectively sidelined Skidmore, making agency interpretations more binding than persuasive.That more restrained approach to agency interpretation—Skidmore's “power to persuade”—quietly persisted in the background during the decades-long dominance of Chevron deference. But on June 28, 2024, in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, the Supreme Court formally overruled Chevron, declaring that courts must exercise independent judgment in interpreting statutes, even when those statutes are ambiguous. The Court emphasized that the Administrative Procedure Act assigns to the judiciary—not agencies—the duty to “decide all relevant questions of law” and interpret statutory provisions without default deference to agency views. In doing so, the Court explicitly endorsed the Skidmore model of respect rather than deference, reaffirming that agency interpretations may still inform judicial decisions, but only to the extent they are persuasive. So, 80 years after Skidmore was decided, its modest, judge-centered vision of statutory interpretation has once again become the law of the land.A group of former federal employees filed a proposed class action lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, alleging the Trump administration unlawfully removed them from their jobs due to their work in diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. The plaintiffs claim the dismissals were politically motivated and violated their First Amendment rights as well as Title VII of the Civil Rights Act.According to the complaint, the reductions in force went beyond typical administrative turnover, instead constituting a deliberate effort to punish perceived political opponents. The plaintiffs argue they were targeted because they held, or were believed to have held, roles connected to DEI initiatives, which President Trump vocally opposed. The lawsuit points to executive orders that allegedly discriminated against women, people of color, and nonbinary individuals.Defendants named include the White House, Justice Department, CIA, Defense Department, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, and Treasury. The plaintiffs are seeking reinstatement, back pay, restoration of seniority, and attorneys' fees.Trump, Agencies Hit With Ex-Federal Workers' Political Bias SuitUnder President Trump's second administration, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is on track for its lowest number of earnings fraud and auditor liability enforcement actions since the Reagan era. So far in 2025, only 20 such cases have been filed—far below the historical average of 79 per year since Trump's first term began in 2017. The decline is attributed to leadership changes, a 43-day government shutdown, shifting agency priorities, and a shrinking SEC staff due to retirements and buyouts.SEC Chair Paul Atkins has emphasized targeting only the most harmful and deliberate frauds, deprioritizing minor or technical violations. Enforcement has also slowed due to procedural constraints, including legal challenges limiting the use of in-house judges and forcing more cases into federal court. Despite the drop in formal actions, former officials and commission watchers caution that investigations continue behind the scenes and could yield future penalties.The agency did finalize some notable settlements early in the year, including $19 million from American Electric Power and $8 million from GrubMarket. However, enforcement activity has since dropped steeply, marking the largest first-year decline following a presidential inauguration since the 1980s.SEC's Earnings Fraud, Auditor Liability Cases Plunge Under TrumpU.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced it will stop processing green cards and related immigration benefits for individuals from 19 countries named in a June Trump administration travel ban. This expanded restriction follows a separate decision by the State Department to suspend visa processing for Afghan nationals after a deadly shooting involving two National Guard members in Washington, D.C.The new USCIS policy affects several types of applications, including those for permanent residency, green card replacements, travel documents, and requests by permanent residents to maintain status while abroad. The halt applies regardless of when the applicant entered the U.S. The agency cited national security concerns as the reason for the changes and indicated all affected individuals may face renewed interviews or screenings.The travel ban currently includes countries such as Afghanistan, Iran, Somalia, Venezuela, and others, with reports suggesting the administration plans to expand the list to about 30 nations. The memo emphasized that individuals from these “high-risk countries of concern” who arrived in the U.S. after January 20, 2021, are subject to re-evaluation.Trump Travel Ban Limits Extend to Green Cards, Other Benefits This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

In September 2025, John Gilsenan retired from his full-time role as Head of Compliance at investment firm Quilter Cheviot Europe, having forged a great depth of experience in the international financial services industry over his long career. A qualified Chartered Certified Accountant, Chartered Tax Accountant, and Licentiate of the Compliance Officers of Ireland, he spoke with TMI about what shaped his approach to an industry that has captivated him for decades.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Show (12/02/2025) 3:05pm- Philadelphia Highway Patrol Officer Andy Chan has died six years after he was struck by a vehicle while on duty. Rich notes that Chan was a friend of the show. 3:15pm- On Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral argument in First Choice Women's Resource Centers v. Platkin. The case asks whether a federal court can hear First Choice's First Amendment challenge to a New Jersey investigatory subpoena when no state court has yet ordered the group to comply. While being questioned by Justice Clarence Thomas, NJ Attorney General Sundeep Iyer conceded that NJ hasn't received any public complaints to justify its subpoena against the pro-life health center. 3:40pm- On Tuesday, President Donald Trump held a press conference announcing the launch of federally supported savings accounts for babies and young children—which will go into effect on July 4th, 2026. In addition to $1,000 per account provided by the U.S. Treasury, Michael and Susan Dell have pledged an additional $6.25 billion donation, amounting to $250 per account for children 10 and under. 3:50pm- “Be Nice to Matt Week” continues, so we discuss two of his favorite things: Home Alone and autonomous vehicles! 4:05pm- Election Day in Tennessee's 7th Congressional District: According to the latest polling from Emerson College/The Hill, Republican Matt Van Epps leads Democrat Aftyn Behn by 2-points. Notably, Donald Trump won the district by 22-points in 2024. 4:20pm- On Tuesday afternoon, President Trump held a cabinet meeting where he predicted that “in the not-too-distant future you won't even have an income tax to pay” thanks to importation tariffs. 4:30pm- A Washington Post report states that Department of War Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized a series of deadly strikes on a drug trafficking boat in the Caribbean, ordering military officials to “kill everybody.” The directive, according to the report, led to a second strike killing several crew members that survived the initial assault on the vessel. The New York Times, as well as the White House, dispute that Hegseth explicitly authorized the second strike or ordered to eliminate survivors. The NYT also reports that the “U.S. military intercepted radio communications from one of the survivors to what [officials] said were narco-traffickers.” 5:00pm- Bill D'Agostino— Senior Research Analyst at Media Research Center—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to break down some of the worst moments from corporate media and Democrats. The New York Times corrects The Washington Post's sloppy boat strike reporting, far-left NYT op-ed columnist (and crazy person) Wajaht Ali calls the United States a “sh*tty country” and claims that white Americans have “lost” by allowing immigration, and Karoline Leavitt masterfully debunks ridiculous questions about President Trump's mental health. 5:30pm- Penn State Basketball

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, Bryan breaks down the political firestorm surrounding the Trump Administration's double-tap strike on a Venezuelan narco boat, the escalating fight over Somali immigration and de-naturalization, the nationwide crackdown on unsafe foreign truck drivers, and a new plan to help American families have more children. Narco Boat Double Tap Becomes a Political Weapon: New reporting shows that SOCOM Commander Admiral Mitch Bradley ordered the second strike that killed two surviving cartel operatives after the initial hit on September 2. Republicans say it was a lawful action against confirmed narco-terrorists, while Democrats and Senator Rand Paul claim it may have violated rules of engagement. A lawsuit has now been filed by the family of one of the dead traffickers. Bryan argues the debate is being driven more by political rivalries than by legal facts.   Trump Escalates Fight Over Somali Migration: President Trump declared that Somali migrants who committed fraud or concealed their identities should be removed from the country and called Ilhan Omar and her political allies "garbage." Minnesota Democrats fired back, accusing Trump of racism and warning Somali residents to stay vigilant as ICE begins new removal operations focused on people with final deportation orders. Bryan explains the legal limits of de-naturalization and why it remains difficult without congressional reform.   De-Naturalization Concerns for Lawful Immigrants: In response to listener concerns, Bryan walks through federal rules on improper naturalization. Fraud, concealment, or a lack of "good moral character" during the citizenship process can lead to revocation, but the standard is high and must be proven in court. He notes that upcoming fights over the Senate filibuster will determine whether the administration can broaden those standards.   Federal Crackdown on Dangerous Foreign Truckers: The Department of Transportation found that thousands of CDL training programs, many catering to migrants, issued licenses without meeting basic standards. Nearly 3,000 schools face revocation within 30 days, and more than 4,000 others have been warned. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy is pressuring states, including Minnesota and Texas, to end Obama-era rules that allowed truckers to pass without reading or speaking English.   Tax Refund Tightening and State Resistance: Treasury officials are closing loopholes that allowed illegal migrants to receive tax refunds, while the Department of Agriculture is withholding food stamp funds from states that refuse to share immigration data about recipients. New York, California, and Minnesota are preparing lawsuits to block the changes.   A Push to Raise America's Birthrate: The White House unveiled a private donation of $6.25 billion from the Dell family to boost "Trump Accounts," which offer savings for newborns and children under age 10. The accounts can later be used for education, home purchases, or starting a business. Bryan explains how the plan aims to counter America's record-low fertility rate and spark renewed interest in marriage and family life.   "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32     Keywords: double tap narco boat strike, Admiral Mitch Bradley SOCOM, Pete Hegseth unlawful orders debate, Trump Somali migrants Minnesota, Ilhan Omar de-naturalization rules, DOT migrant CDL crackdown, Sean Duffy licensing reforms, Treasury migrant tax refunds, Trump Accounts fertility initiative, Dell family donation

Today's Headlines: Republican Matt Van Epps narrowly won Tennessee's special election, which is… not exactly a flex for the GOP given the district. Meanwhile, Trump went on a full midnight Truth Social bender — 150 posts of pure nonsense — including a retweet of Kristi Noem calling for a “full travel ban” on basically whoever she feels like. He kept the chaos going at a two-hour Cabinet meeting where he bragged about his cognitive test, nodded off, and let Noem announce immigration crackdowns in Minnesota's Somali community. Pete Hegseth used his time to deny ordering the killing of survivors of U.S. boat strikes and promised more strikes off Venezuela, as a Signalgate review is set to be released. Kash Patel didn't fare much better in the news cycle, a leaked 115-page report from FBI veterans called the bureau under him a fear-soaked disaster run by a guy who once refused to leave a plane until someone found him a properly patched FBI jacket. In more anit-immigration adjacent news, Brooke Rollins is threatening to pause SNAP funds for states refusing to share immigrant data. Sabrina Carpenter, however, wants zero association with ICE after they used her music in a raid montage. And like we all knew would happen, Senate Republicans appear to have abandoned the plan to extend Obamacare subsidies before premiums spike in January (shocking). Finally, billionaire Michael Dell and his wife are tossing $6.25 billion into “Trump accounts” for kids, while Treasury kicks in $1,000 for children born during Trump's term, and Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff spent four hours in the Kremlin with Putin discussing their ever-mutating “peace plan.”  Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: NBC News: Tennessee House Special Election 2025 Live Results: Matt Van Epps Wins, NBC News Projects The Independent: Trump goes on late-night social media rant demanding Democrats who spoke out on military justice be jailed NYT: Kristi Noem Recommends New Travel Ban After National Guard Shooting Axios: ICE coming for Minneapolis after Trump targets Somalis CNN: Fact check: Trump delivers long list of false claims at Cabinet meeting Axios: Scoop: Pentagon's internal "Signalgate" review sent to Congress Yahoo: Kash Patel Justifies Jacket Meltdown by Saying He Wanted a Kid's Size Axios: SNAP benefits at risk as states resist Trump immigration data demands AP News: Sabrina Carpenter and Franklin the Turtle publisher condemn Trump administration's use of their work AP News: Chances dwindling for renewal of health care subsidies, risking premium spikes for millions WaPo: Dell CEO pledges $6 billion to ‘Trump accounts' for American children Axios: Witkoff and Kushner met Putin for five hours on Ukraine plan Telegraph: Putin: We're ready for war with Europe Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

TDC Podcast topics - Amy gets attacked by TDS sufferers, fatso on a plane eavesdrops on the person sitting next to her and doesn't like their texts, women posting how upset they are, Rodney Harrison froze on Sunday Night Football, Trump is sending strike teams after Somalian illegals in Minnesota, Treasury and House panels launch investigations into Tim Walz and the massive fraud in Minn., Trump attacks Somalia for being a garbage country and Illhan Omar for being a garbage person, is there any chance Candace Owen's is on to something or has she lost the plot completely?  And email

Republican Matt Van Epps wins the Special Election Tennessee, defeating Aftyn Behn. Democrats supremely overperformed in a deep red district. Dana explains why the proposal of “Trump Accounts”, a federally-subsidized investment fund for new babies, is a taxpayer-funded Socialist welfare program. H1D A raccoon gets DRUNK at an ABC liquor store in Ashland, Virginia and passes out in the bathroom.The Treasury is investigating whether Minnesota welfare money went to Somali terror group, al Shabaab. Actor Ben Stiller ATTACKS Trump over saying that Somalis who are destroying Minnesota's welfare system, “garbage”. Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey speaks in Somali at a press conference.Sen. Mark Warner calls Pete Hegseth a “wimp” and claims he is throwing his admiral under the bus over the Venezuelan boat strike. Dana warns that the Tennessee Special Election Results should have had a wider margin of victory for Republicans. Ret. Army Col. Kurt Schlichter SLAMS criticism of our military taking out narco-terrorists on Venezuelan drug boats including the false “one shot rule”, explaining the laws of war and why this strike was necessary.Thank you for supporting our sponsors that make The Dana Show possible…PreBornhttps://Preborn.com/DANAThis Christmas, for just $28 you can help save a life. Dial #250 and say “Baby,” or give securely online. Make your gift today.Relief Factorhttps://ReliefFactor.com OR CALL 1-800-4-RELIEFDon't let pain stop you from living the life you want with Relief Factor. Get their 3-week Relief Factor Quick Start for only $19.95 today! Fast Growing Treeshttps://FastGrowingTrees.comGet up to 50% off plus 15% off your next purchase with code DANA—visit and save today! Valid for a limited time, terms and conditions apply.Patriot Mobilehttps://PatriotMobile.com/Dana  OR CALL 972-PATRIOTWhat are you waiting for? Switch today. Use promo code DANA for a free month of service.Byrnahttps://Byrna.comSave 15% sitewide during Byrna's biggest Black Friday and Cyber Monday sale. Don't miss out!AmmoSquaredhttps://AmmoSquared.comDon't get caught without ammo and be sure to tell them you heard about Ammo Squared on this show. Keltechttps://KelTecWeapons.comKelTec builds every KS7 GEN2 right here in the USA with American materials and workers—upgrade your home defense today.  KelTec Peacekeepershttps://KelTecWeapons.com/DanaThe KelTec Peacekeepers Program supports those who protect our communities.  Learn more about the program today. HumanNhttps://HumanN.comStart supporting your cardiovascular health with SuperBeets, now available at your local Walmart.Noblehttps://NobleGoldInvestments.com/DanaOpen a new qualified IRA or cash account with Noble Gold and get a FREE 10-ounce Silver Flag Bar plus a Silver American Eagle Proof Coin. 

Carl Quintanilla and Jim Cramer delved into the AI trade, including a development that helped to erase stock futures' gains before the open of trading: Shares of Microsoft fell after The Information reported the company was cutting software sales quotas tied to AI. With the Fed's next interest rate decision exactly one week away, ADP jobs data showed private payrolls unexpectedly declined in November. The anchors reacted to what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Andrew Ross Sorkin about tariffs during an interview at The New York Times DealBook Summit. Also in focus: Bitcoin back above $93K, Google vs. OpenAI, Nvidia's CFO on the AI race, retail earnings roundup, Salesforce earnings preview. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Josh Riezman, GSR's U.S. Chief Strategy Officer, joined me to discuss how the firm is helping institutions access the crypto asset class.Topics:- Crypto market making for institutions- TradFi adoption of Crypto- Advisement of MEI Pharma in its $100M Litecoin treasury strategy- Anchoring of $100M private investment into Upexi to establish its Solana treasury strategy- Digital Asset Treasury trend - benefits, risks, etc- DATs vs ETFs

On this Midweek Show the host opens with a spirited "Word on Word" scripture segment and checks in on an alarming December deep freeze predicted across much of North America. He urges listeners to prepare practically and to build community ties in the face of severe weather. The episode then dives into immigration and domestic security concerns, including a short clip of Secretary Noem on alleged visa fraud linked to Somali immigrants in Minnesota. The host reviews claims about welfare dependency, alleged visa fraud rates, and money-laundering concerns while criticizing local leadership. He also discusses explosive allegations raised in the broadcast about Representative Ilhan Omar, framed as issues the host believes deserve scrutiny. Turning to law enforcement and intelligence, the show plays a clip from Kash Patel defending recent FBI results and highlighting arrests, child recoveries, counter‑intelligence wins and fentanyl interdictions. The host praises some operational outcomes but expresses frustration that, despite years of alleged corruption, there have been few high‑profile prosecutions or "perp walks." He questions timing and accountability while weighing anonymous-source journalism versus measurable results. On the economy the program covers optimistic fiscal claims: projected large tariff-funded tax refunds, talk of lowering or eliminating income tax, and a new initiative to seed investment accounts for children (including a multi‑billion pledge from private industry). The host calls the child‑savings idea promising while contrasting it with what he sees as worrying Canadian fiscal decisions. Internationally the episode critiques Canadian policy moves (a major pension fund investment overseas, proposed hate‑speech legislation, and defense commitments) and plays clips from NATO leadership and a Treasury official about increased European pledges to buy U.S. military equipment. The host interprets higher NATO spending as a U.S. arms windfall and argues many Western economies are being strained by sustained war support, while also suggesting Ukraine has become a financial laundromat tied to wider geopolitical interests. Venezuela, drugs and the use of military force are also discussed: the host highlights presidential comments telegraphing strikes on drug networks and extractive facilities, and warns that war — or other extreme measures — remains a real risk as global tension escalates. He frames these developments in a larger narrative about a battle between "dark and light," technocratic control, and the potential for large‑scale destabilizing events. Near the end of the episode the host announces a temporary shift in production: he will scale back video (Rumble) shows to focus on long‑running projects, continue regular Podbean episodes when possible, and promises occasional spot updates. He invites listeners to a nightly prayer meeting on Telegram, asks for support in spreading the show, and closes with a personal exhortation to love God and neighbors and to strengthen local community ties. This episode mixes news clips, political commentary and personal updates. Listeners can expect passionate opinion, clip‑based analysis (including voices from Secretary Noem, Kash Patel and NATO/treasury officials), broad international and domestic policy discussion, and practical calls for community preparedness and faith‑based action. Want to Understand and Explain Everything Biblically?  Click Here: Decoding the Power of Three: Understand and Explain Everything or go to www.rightonu.com and click learn more.  Thank you for Listening to Right on Radio. Prayerfully consider supporting Right on Radio. Click Here for all links, Right on Community ROC, Podcast web links, Freebies, Products (healing mushrooms, EMP Protection) Social media, courses and more... https://linktr.ee/RightonRadio Live Right in the Real World! We talk God and Politics, Faith Based Broadcast News, views, Opinions and Attitudes We are Your News Now. Keep the Faith

Childcare costs are soaring, and for many Utah families, the numbers are staggering. Smart Asset's latest analysis reveals that a household needs to earn at least $82,410 annually for one parent to stay home with a young child. Greg and Holly discuss the costs and what this means for families trying to balance work, finances, and parenting. The hosts also discuss a new development for the "Trump Account,s" where all children born between 2025 and 2028 will automatically receive a $1,000 deposit from the Department of the Treasury.

A critical national security decision is currently under high-level review inside the Trump administration. By Christmas eve, the Secretaries of State and the Treasury are tasked with reporting to the President whether to designate some or all of the Muslim Brotherhood as terrorist organizations.  This should be a no-brainer since the Brotherhood is committed to the destruction of America and its submission, along with the rest of the world, to a global “caliphate” ruling according to Islam's totalitarian sharia code. Filmmaker Ami Horowitz brilliantly documented these ambitions in a short video entitled, “Inside the Muslim Brotherhood.”   The Brothers are aggressively enabled by two influential, but actually subversive so-called U.S. “allies”: Qatar and Turkey. Both are actively opposing any such designation.  But last month, Texas Governor Greg Abbot effectively banned the Brotherhood in his state. President Trump must do the same nationwide. This is Frank Gaffney.

Despite disappointing economic data, treasury yield dynamics, particularly the widening 2-10 spread, are supporting financial and industrial stocks, making a year-end market grind higher plausible. Justin Bergner notes that a hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut is likely, conditioning the market for less frequent cuts. He highlights regional banks and short-cycle industrial stocks as potential opportunities, given their underperformance and improving macro indicators.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 1: 3:05pm- Philadelphia Highway Patrol Officer Andy Chan has died six years after he was struck by a vehicle while on duty. Rich notes that Chan was a friend of the show. 3:15pm- On Tuesday, the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral argument in First Choice Women's Resource Centers v. Platkin. The case asks whether a federal court can hear First Choice's First Amendment challenge to a New Jersey investigatory subpoena when no state court has yet ordered the group to comply. While being questioned by Justice Clarence Thomas, NJ Attorney General Sundeep Iyer conceded that NJ hasn't received any public complaints to justify its subpoena against the pro-life health center. 3:40pm- On Tuesday, President Donald Trump held a press conference announcing the launch of federally supported savings accounts for babies and young children—which will go into effect on July 4th, 2026. In addition to $1,000 per account provided by the U.S. Treasury, Michael and Susan Dell have pledged an additional $6.25 billion donation, amounting to $250 per account for children 10 and under. 3:50pm- “Be Nice to Matt Week” continues, so we discuss two of his favorite things: Home Alone and autonomous vehicles!

Treasury, House panel launch probes into Tim Walz's handling of $1B food aid fraud — and they could make criminal referrals, Kristi Noem calls for 'full travel ban' on countries flooding US with 'killers, leeches, and entitlement junkies' , Senator Ron Johnson and John Rich  join the show Check out out partners: BEAM: http://shopbeam.com/BENNYSHOW , use code BENNYSHOW Go to https://hometitlelock.com/benny and use promo code BENNY to get a FREE title history report so you can find out if you're already a victim AND 14 days of protection for FREE! And make sure to check out the Million Dollar TripleLock protection details when you get there! Exclusions apply. For details visit https://hometitlelock.com/warranty 120Life: “120/Life is a natural drink that supports healthy blood pressure. See better numbers in 2 weeks or your money back by saving 20% with code BENNY at http://www.120life.com/ ” Helix Sleep: Go to https://www.helixsleep.com/benny for 27% off sitewide.. Bon Charge: Go to https://www.boncharge.com/BENNY and use coupon code BENNY to save 15% Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Give Us Your Ideas For Next The PassivePockets Summit! https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1vwcvF1z03HYiKmR3a4JN8up0ja4kgKPzG2bCGS6640c/viewform?edit_requested=true This Episode It's the November PassivePockets Pulse Check. Jim Pfeifer, Paul Shannon, and Chris Lopez share what's new in their portfolios, the real impact of the Fed's second rate cut, the tool you should use this month (sponsor reviews—now updatable), and how they're setting concrete goals for 2026. Plus: a big announcement: PassivePockets Summit is in Denver, April 30 (arrival) - May 2. Vote on sessions and networking ideas via the survey in the link above. Key Takeaways Portfolio check: capital back from an Aspen Funds industrial deal (tribe structure), 30% return of capital from a Threefold sale, and an unfortunate likely loss tied to the DJE/Ascent situation, why operator integrity and transparency matter Real deals in motion: Paul's Indiana acquisition fully subscribed (rate locked), and an Evansville 56-unit true-distress LOI/PSA walkthrough (what those terms mean and why the team thinks it's a fast operational turn) Rates: two cuts this fall (~50 bps total) boosted sentiment but barely moved longer-term agency debt; example: 7-yr Treasury + spread shifted only ~6 bps between application and lock Outlook: expect a trickle, not a tsunami, of distress into 2026 as “extend & pretend” maturities roll; bid/ask is narrowing, which may push lenders to act Tools & goals: update your Sponsor Reviews (and why “update” notes help the community); Chris is rebalancing toward private credit and Roth-powered compounding, Jim is doubling down on trusted operators and liquidity discipline, and Paul is rotating from cash/metals into equity while keeping a family financial “in case of emergency” plan current Disclaimer The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only. All host and participant opinions are their own. Investment in any asset, real estate included, involves risk, so use your best judgment and consult with qualified advisors before investing. You should only risk capital you can afford to lose. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This podcast may contain paid advertisements or other promotional materials for real estate investment advisers, investment funds, and investment opportunities, which should not be interpreted as a recommendation, endorsement, or testimonial by PassivePockets, LLC or any of its affiliates. Viewers must conduct their own due diligence and consider their own financial situations before engaging with any advertised offerings, products, or services. PassivePockets, LLC disclaims all liability for direct, indirect, consequential, or other damages arising out of reliance on information and advertisements presented in this podcast.

The Joe Piscopo Show 12-2-25 24:23- Col. Patrick Callahan, New Jersey State Police Superintendent and State Director of Emergency Management Topic: Preparations for impending Nor'Easter, road conditions 37:07- Joseph diGenova, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Topic: Appeals court upholds ruling disqualifying Alina Habba 52:21- John Solomon, award-winning investigative journalist, founder of "Just The News," and the host of “Just the News, No Noise” on the Real America’s Voice network Topic: White House confirming Pete Hegseth authorized second strike on drug boat, Homeland Security 1:13:41- Matt Rooney, Founder and Editor-in-Chief of SaveJersey.com Topic: Alina Habba 1:27:36- David Fischer, CEO of Landmark Capital Topic: Possibility of a looming bear market, U.S. Treasury reporting October budget, Federal Reserve 2% inflation target and the impact on gold and silver prices 1:38:04- K.T. McFarland, Former Trump Deputy National Security Advisor and the author of "Revolution: Trump, Washington and 'We The People'” Topic: U.S. relations with Venezuela, second strike on drug boat, latest with Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations 1:49:49- Dr. Marc Siegel, physician, Professor of Medicine at the NYU Langone Medical Center, author of "The Miracles Among Us," and contributor to Fox News Topic: President Trump's MRI, his new book 2:03:59- Arthur Aidala, former Brooklyn Prosecutor, star criminal defense attorney, and host of "The Arthur Aidala Power Hour" weeknights at 6 p.m. on AM 970 The Answer Topic: Luigi Mangione pretrial hearings on evidence in the death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian ThompsonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The inflated media controversy surrounding Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s decision to strike a drug-smuggling boat new Venezuela in September. Reporter Olivia Nuzzi’s new memoir American Canto tells a story of an extramarital affair with Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS) Robert F. Kennedy, amongst many other political figures. The U.S. Treasury is investigating allegations that Minnesotans’ tax dollars may have been diverted to the terrorist group Al-Shabaab under the watch of Democratic Governor Tim Walz.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Product Research Jay Bacow and James Egan discuss the outlook for mortgage rates and the U.S. housing market in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Jim, why did the cranberry turn red? James Egan: Please enlighten me. Jay Bacow: Because it saw the turkey dressing. Jay Bacow: I hope everybody had a good Thanksgiving. Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Today we're here to talk about our views from mortgage rates in 2026 and how that flows through to our U.S. housing outlook.It's Monday, December 1st at 11:30am in New York.Now, Jay, as we all get over our turkey induced naps over the weekend, how are we thinking about mortgage rates evolving in 2026?Jay Bacow: Well, as you and I discussed previously on this podcast, the Fed cutting rates in and of itself doesn't actually cause the 30-year fixed rate mortgage to come down. However, our rate strategists' forecast for lower rates in the front end should be helpful to where the primary rate ends up this year. And we would also expect some compression between primary mortgage rates and Treasury rates given our bullish outlook for the mortgage asset class. So, our expectation is that the 30-year fixed rate ends 2026 around 5.75 percent.James Egan: Alright, if we get to 5.75, maybe a little bit lower than that in the middle of next year, that's enough to send affordability into a healthier place. But that's a relative term. Affordability is still going to be under pressure, but it will have improved. And it will have improved at a pretty healthy amount from where we were in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was multi-decade levels of challenged.Jay Bacow: All right, Jim, so clearly the mortgage rate coming down does make homes more affordable, but is it enough to cause more homes to actually transact?James Egan: So, the answer is yes, but it's going to be a ‘Yes, but' answer from that perspective. We do think that transaction volumes are going to increase. But to put into context where we sit from a housing market perspective – we already saw a healthy increase in affordability from the fourth quarter of [20]23 through the end of 2024, right? But if we put that affordability improvement in context, we've seen that about 10 times over the past 40 years. The only times where sales responded more tepidly than they just did in 2025 – were in 2009, the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis; and in 2020, when the market really slowed down in the immediate aftermath of COVID. The lock-in effect is still playing a very big role. We do think that this sustained marginal improvement and affordability will help purchase volumes. But this is not what's going to get us to kind of escape velocity. We're calling for about a 3 percent growth in purchase volumes next year. Jay Bacow: Alright. Now, you mentioned this a little bit already, but if there's less lock-in because the mortgage rate has come down, will more people be willing to list their homes for sale? Are we going to get more inventory on the market? James Egan: I think that's the other piece of how we're thinking about housing moving forward. Any improvement we get in affordability from lower mortgage rates is going to be paired with increasing inventory volumes. We've already seen that. Listed inventories are up roughly 30 percent from historic lows in 2023. They're still 20 percent worth below where they were in 2019. So, we're not talking about oversupply at this point. But that increase in listed inventories without a contemporaneous increase in demand is weighed on the pace of home price growth. We started this year at +4 percent nationally. We're below +1.5 percent. We think that any growth and demand will come coincident with the growth in listing volumes. That's going to keep home price appreciation under control. We're only calling for 2 percent growth in HPA next year, 3 percent out in 2027. But the high level thought here is that the housing market is well supported at these levels. Difficult to see big decreases in sales volumes or prices next year. But also going to be difficult to really achieve any more material growth in this low single digits we're calling for. But Jay, as you and I are talking about this outlook with market participants, one question that gets brought up frequently is what else can the administration do, especially on the affordability side, to help with instigating more housing activity. Jay Bacow: In order to really help affordability, given the challenges that you've discussed around the supply and demand issues; then the other aspect of that is just what is the mortgage rate? And if they were to do things that would cause the mortgage rate to come down, that would be helpful. Now, the Fed already has made an announcement that they're going to continue mortgage runoff from their balance sheet. If they ended mortgage runoff, that would've helped. But that window seems to have passed. There's been some discussion from the administration around new types of programs. In particular, there was a lot of headlines around a 50-year program. A 50-year amortization schedule would likely result in a material drop in the monthly payment that the homeowner would make – which would help. However, the total interest payments for that homeowner, depending on exactly where this hypothetical 50-year mortgage rate would price, are probably about double over the life of the loan relative to a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. So, we're not really sure that this product would see a huge amount of upkeep. There's also some technical challenges around whether it meets the definition of a qualified mortgage and some other in the weeds discussions. James Egan: What about all the discussion we're hearing around assumability of mortgages, portability of mortgages? Is there anything there? Jay Bacow: Based on our understanding of contract law, which I have to confess is limited as I am not a lawyer, we don't think you can retroactively make mortgages portable or assumable that were not already portable or assumable. So, you can make new mortgages portable and assumable. Portable as a reminder means that if you have a mortgage, you take it with you to your new house, and assumable means that the mortgage stays with the house. If you sell it to somebody else, they get that mortgage. But realistically, we think this would have to be a new product. And because it would be a new product with new benefits to the homeowner, it would actually probably cause their mortgage rate to be higher, not lower. James Egan: I guess one last question. We're talking about affordability and we're addressing it through interest rates being lower, we're addressing it through the potential for new products to be put out there, even if there are some challenges around that piece of it. But what about just demand for mortgages themselves? You said the Fed might not be a buyer going forward, but are there other pockets of demand for mortgages that could help bring down mortgage rates? Jay Bacow: Sure. So, we expect the GSEs to grow their portfolio next year, that would certainly be helpful. On the margin, we expect them to buy about a little less than a third of the net issuance that comes to the market. We also think that domestic banks could come back to the market and they could help bring the mortgage rates lower. But these changes are going to help mortgage rates by, in the context of maybe an eighth of a point to a quarter of a point at most. It's not a panacea, unfortunately. James Egan: Alright. So, we expect a little bit of an improvement in mortgage rates, a little bit of affordability improvement next year. That should lead to growth in purchase volumes, and I think it will lead to a little bit of growth in home prices. But the housing market is well supported range bound here. Jay Bacow: Jim, pleasure talking to you. And to all our regular listeners, thank you for adding Thoughts on the Market to your playlist. James Egan: Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.Jay Bacow: And as my kids would say, go smash that subscribe button.

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