Podcasts about Treasury

Despite very significant shifts in U.S. economic policy and major geopolitical events, investors can look back at the first half of 2025 with some satisfaction. Through July 3rd, the S&P500 provided a total return of 7.5% for the year, despite being on the brink of a bear market just three months ago. Fixed income has also done well, with 10-year Treasury yields falling by 23 basis points, generating a 4.2% return year-to-date while high-yield bonds have delivered 4.8% on the back of a further narrowing of already tight spreads.

On this episode of The Horizon, John Chang discusses the current trajectory of interest rates, the outlook on inflation, and the uncertain effects of tariffs and political influence on the Federal Reserve. He explores how treasury issuance and trade policies are shaping rate expectations, especially amid political pressure and global economic shifts. John also evaluates the U.S. job market's softening signals, growing layoffs, and how uncertainty is likely to rise again depending on post-July 9 tariff decisions. He ends by offering a forward-looking perspective on commercial real estate sectors—favoring demographic-driven investments like medical office, multifamily, and self-storage—while noting potential opportunities and risks in office, retail, and industrial assets. Get a 4-week trial, free postage, and a digital scale at ⁠https://www.stamps.com/cre⁠. Thanks to Stamps.com for sponsoring the show! Post your job for free at https://www.linkedin.com/BRE. Terms and conditions apply. Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at ⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

I know some of you are tired of hearing about Bitcoin and digital currencies. That's not what this week's show is about. This week's podcast conversation is broader—it touches the entire global economy. But…you just can't talk about macroeconomic trends anymore without talking about digital dollars and Bitcoin. Leaving them out today would be like ignoring gold when discussing commodities. There's a section this week in my interview with Ian Reynolds that dives deep into the bond market and the growing influence of stablecoins. And I realized—it might be helpful to give you a bit of context up front. If you're already familiar, consider this a refresher. If not, this will make the second half of our conversation a lot more useful. Let's start with the 10-year U.S. Treasury—arguably the most important interest rate in the world. This one number influences everything from mortgage rates to stock valuations to how much it costs the government to borrow money. Historically, when inflation drops, yields on the 10-year tend to fall as well. That's the standard relationship: lower inflation usually leads to lower yields. But that's not what's happening right now. Despite a year of cooling inflation, the 10-year Treasury yield has stayed surprisingly high. Why? The answer boils down to supply and demand. On the supply side, the U.S. government is flooding the market with Treasuries—over a trillion dollars' worth every quarter—to finance its growing deficits. That's a lot of new bonds entering the market. At the same time, demand isn't keeping up. Foreign central banks like China and Japan, which used to be some of the biggest buyers of our debt, are pulling back. Some are dealing with their own domestic issues. Others are deliberately reducing their exposure to the dollar as a reaction to U.S. foreign policy over the past year. So: more supply, less demand—what happens? Bond prices go down, resulting in higher yields for bond investors. That, in turn, means higher borrowing costs for everyone—including the U.S. government, businesses, and consumers. That's why, even with inflation falling, the 10-year hasn't followed the script. But here's where things get interesting. A new kind of buyer has started stepping in: stablecoin issuers. Stablecoins—like USDC and Tether—are digital tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar. They've become essential plumbing for the crypto economy, but their growth is increasingly relevant to the broader financial system. Why? Because in order to maintain their dollar peg, these companies need to back their coins with something stable—and that “something” is often short-term U.S. Treasuries. It turns out, that's a great business to be in. These stablecoin issuers collect real dollars, turn around, and invest them in T-bills yielding 5% or more. That spread—between what they earn and what they pay out—is pure profit. It's essentially a 21st-century version of a money market fund, just running on blockchain. And it's growing fast. Tether now holds more Treasuries than countries like Australia or Mexico. BlackRock has launched a tokenized Treasury fund that already has nearly $3 billion under management. And just this week, Mastercard announced that it's integrating USDC and other stablecoins for cross-border settlement. In other words, this isn't fringe anymore. It's moved into the mainstream, and it's growing quickly. Even lawmakers are catching up. Just this month, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, a bipartisan bill that sets clear regulatory guidelines for stablecoins. It requires full backing by liquid assets—like Treasuries—and regular public disclosures. It's now headed to the House, and while not law yet, the momentum is clearly there. The takeaway? Regulatory clarity is coming, and that opens the door for large institutions, payment processors, and even governments to scale up stablecoin usage with confidence. So why does this matter for bond yields?

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Scott Bessent, Secretary of the Treasury Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Although the Secret Service is now most commonly associated with the protection of national leaders, this didn't begin until after the assassination of President William McKinley in September ...

Join Peter Schiff in this week's Gold Wrap as he discusses the significant rise in gold and silver prices, the decline of the US dollar and Treasury yields, and the impact of recent legislative and trade developments on the market. Plus, get insights on future investment strategies and upcoming changes at SchiffGold.

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In this episode of This Week in AML, Elliot Berman is joined by Joe McNamara to unpack efforts across North America to combat fentanyl trafficking—including Treasury's designation of Mexican financial institutions and Canada's new FinTRAC intelligence unit, FATF's latest update on virtual assets and VASPs, he OCC's report on key risks in the federal banking system, FinCEN's change on TIN collection under the CIP rule, and other issues affecting the financial crime prevention community.

Financial historian James Grant says gold's impressive rally is flashing a warning signal about the value of U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar. Why investors should take note.WEALTHTRACK episode 2201, broadcast July 4, 2025

The Government was forced into a humiliating climbdown over its controversial benefits bill this week, and any savings the Treasury had hoped to make were wiped out. The politics of this is a subject on its own, but the underlying problem the government was trying to solve, however, remains. David Aaronovitch asks his guests why the cost of disability benefits has ballooned so unexpectedly, who gets them and why and whether the system works for disabled people.Guests:Paul Lewis, Presenter Moneybox, BBC Radio 4 Tom Waters, Associate Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies Louise Murphy, Senior Economist, Resolution Foundation Ruth Patrick, Professor of Social and Public Policy, University of GlasgowPresenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Kirsteen Knight and Sally Abrahams Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineers: Sarah Hockley and Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Meredith Whitney, CEO of Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to discuss her outlook on a bifurcated economy where 52% of households are entering their second recession since COVID stimulus ended, while high-end consumers continue driving economic growth. Sponsors: Monetary Metals: https://monetary-metals.com/julia⁠ Kalshi: ⁠https://kalshi.com/julia Links: https://meredithwhitneyllc.com/Timestamps:0:00 Intro 0:54 Macro outlook and consumer segmentation 2:37 Recession expectations for Main Street 4:19 Market distortions and wealth effects 4:51 Dollar stores as economic indicator 6:17 Dollar store vs Walmart consumer dynamics 7:57 Trading down narrative discussion 8:26 Segmented recession clarification 8:54 Housing market outlook 9:23 Worst housing market in decades 11:12 Senior demographics and aging in place 12:32 First-time homebuyer challenges 14:25 Housing bubble discussion 15:29 Avocado toast generation (24-38 age group) 17:09 Experiential spending and lifestyle patterns 19:53 Nation's fiscal picture and debt concerns 22:44 Interest rates and Treasury market risks 24:31 Fed's impossible situation with stagflation 25:42 Rate cut predictions 27:04 Underappreciated risks and Treasury concerns 28:30 Home equity as "get out of jail free card" 30:15 Where to find Meredith's work and closing thoughts

James and Preston dissect the evolving cryptocurrency landscape—from market structure transitions and on-chain data missteps to Bitcoin mining incentives and the cutting-edge strategies behind Bitcoin Treasury companies. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro  02:47 - Lessons learned from the 2020-2021 crypto cycle 04:59 - Why the crypto market is shifting from spot to leverage-driven models 05:54 - The role of futures and ETFs in today's low-activity network 10:42 - How mining subsidies influence innovation and decentralization 14:08 - Why fees are crucial for protecting Bitcoin from censorship 19:32 - How Bitcoin's dominance affects altcoin cycles 26:35 - Insights into tokenized sovereign debt and blockchain scalability 32:15 - The potential long-term shift in global KYC regulations 33:13 - The rise and risks of Bitcoin Treasury companies 38:53 - Key differences between MicroStrategy and competitors Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Related resource: Checkmate's substack. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bitcoin Fundamentals Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠: SimpleMining AnchorWatch Human Rights Foundation Onramp Superhero Leadership Unchained Vanta Shopify Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Sarah Halpern President and CEO of the Business Consortium Fund (BCF) and Triad Investments. Here's a summary of the key points discussed:

Sarah Halpern President and CEO of the Business Consortium Fund (BCF) and Triad Investments. Here's a summary of the key points discussed:

Today we talk the end of quarter performance for quarter two of 2025. How did you do? We also cover a wide range of economic and market topics, beginning with the complexities of investing in artificial intelligence, lessons on succession planning, leadership transitions, and the importance of understanding demographic and power dynamics in both politics and investing. We note that large-cap growth, tech, and industrials led Q2 performance, while energy and real estate lagged. Mounting debt, rising delinquencies, and wage garnishment were cited as signs of economic stress, especially among younger and lower-income Americans, but the U.S. is still regarded as one of the best places to live. Today we discuss...  AI emerges as a hot investing theme, but it's difficult to get meaningful public equity exposure to the trend. We talks lessons for business owners on succession planning and the difference between operators and visionaries. You should invest in yourselves, learn how to work with AI, and become irreplaceable in the workforce. They conclude that unlike past tech revolutions, understanding AI is more about mindset, prompting skills, and creative application than simply buying stock exposure. Warren Buffett can be both the greatest investor of all time and underperform over the last 25 years. Buffett's investment challenges are partly due to managing massive capital, but he also strayed from his original strategy. Buffett should have retired decades ago and left day-to-day decisions to others. This is a parallel between aging leaders in investing and aging politicians who refuse to step down. The Baby Boomer generation is described as unintentionally draining economic resources through demographic trends. Understanding leadership transitions and generational shifts is crucial for evaluating companies and markets. Q2 market performance shows large-cap growth outperforming small-cap and value stocks. Sectors like industrials, communications, and tech led, while energy, real estate, and healthcare lagged. High beta, momentum, and pure growth factors outperformed, while high dividend and low volatility underperformed. Treasury bonds, especially international, were among the best-performing fixed income assets. Precious metals like gold, silver, and uranium led commodities; agricultural products like corn and wheat lagged. Many top-performing countries are printing money, boosting markets, despite geopolitical or structural issues. Biotech investing is highly complex due to multiple layers of science, regulation, and operational risk. Investors don't need to invest in every trendy sector—understanding is more important than participation. Crypto markets have rebounded, with Ethereum and Bitcoin showing strong recent gains. The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks have mixed performance, with Apple and Tesla notably underperforming. The market is entering a historically strong July–August window, buoyed by trade optimism. U.S.–China relations show signs of improvement, including mutual resource access. Buy Now, Pay Later services are beginning to impact credit scores and consumer financial stability. Over 2.3 million households are delinquent on mortgage payments, with foreclosures up 34%. Renters face growing pressure, with 21% behind on payments and eviction filings surging. Mounting debt burdens are fueling disillusionment among younger Americans, increasing support for socialism. Inflation has cooled from 9% in 2022 to 2.4% in April 2025. Despite challenges, the U.S. is still viewed as one of the best places to live. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/end-of-quarter-performance-725  Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Sarah Halpern President and CEO of the Business Consortium Fund (BCF) and Triad Investments. Here's a summary of the key points discussed:

Supply, Stalemate, and Strategy: A Data-Centric View on U.S. Housing with Chris Nebenzahl   Locked-In America: The Housing Market's Great Stall The U.S. housing market isn't just tight, it's inert. As Chris Nebenzahl, Housing Economist at John Burns Research and Consulting, puts it, America is experiencing a “lock-in effect” where millions of homeowners, beneficiaries of sub-3% mortgages from a prior era, have no incentive to move. Transactions, both in the for-sale and rental segments, are stalling. Inventory is constrained by economic rationality, not lack of demand. “The housing market thrives on constant moves,” Nebenzahl says. “But right now, across the housing spectrum, people are locked in.”   The result: record-low turnover in single-family and multifamily rentals, with occupancy propped up by immobility rather than expansion. In such a frozen ecosystem, prices remain surprisingly buoyant despite high rates – a divergence from textbook supply-demand dynamics.   The 5.5% Mortgage Threshold: A Reopening Trigger? The most actionable insight from Nebenzahl's research: housing won't truly unfreeze until mortgage rates return to a “magic number” of approximately 5.5%. That's the psychological and financial line at which the lock-in effect starts to meaningfully ease, based on historical demand models and borrower behavior.   With mortgage rates stuck between 6.5% and 7.5%, this still feels a long way off. Until that number is achieved, or until housing prices decline significantly, mobility will remain stifled. Notably, certain regions such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Tennessee are already seeing modest price declines, indicating that some pressure is starting to break through.   But Nebenzahl is clear: this isn't a repeat of 2008. “Nationwide, I think we'll see maybe a 1–2% decline in home values. We're nowhere near GFC territory,” he says. The real estate crash of yesteryear was a systemic event; today's stalling is more friction than fissure.   Bifurcation in Geography and Performance The story of U.S. housing is increasingly one of regional divergence. “It's a tale of two markets,” Nebenzahl observes. Northeast, Midwest, parts of the West Coast: Supply remains tight, pricing is stable or even rising, and rent growth is positive particularly in cities like Boston, Chicago, and San Francisco. Sunbelt metros like Austin, Dallas, Denver, Nashville: Facing ongoing rent declines and incentives as a wave of multifamily supply catches up with (and briefly outpaces) demand. What's driving this? In one word: inventory. “Austin, for example, has seen the most supply as a percentage of existing stock. That's softened rents, even though demand remains strong.”   The Quiet Strength of Rentals Despite oversupply in some markets, multifamily is holding up. Rents have stabilized, absorption remains healthy, and rent-to-income ratios are generally favorable. Nationwide, that ratio sits around 25%, well below the 30% threshold for ‘rent burden.' Even in supply-saturated markets like Austin, ratios hover near 20%, laying a foundation for recovery.   Why this resilience? A few reasons: Affordability gap: With for-sale housing out of reach for many due to both price and interest rates, renting becomes the only viable option. Mobility hedge: In uncertain economic times, the flexibility of a 12-month lease is more appealing than a 30-year mortgage. Demographic tailwinds: New household formation, though potentially threatened by labor market softness, is still skewing towards rentals. “The lion's share of household formation is going into rental,” Nebenzahl says. “Because of affordability challenges, and because people are hesitant to make long-term commitments.”   Cracks in the Foundation: Where Distress May Surface Still, there are stress points, especially in assets underwritten in the froth of 2021. “I'd be watching older vintage assets in oversupplied markets,” he says. “Many of those were acquired with floating rate debt and pro formas that didn't anticipate interest rates going from 0% to 5.5% overnight.”   These deals are now colliding with debt maturities, declining rents, and underwriting models that assumed permanent appreciation. That said, he does not forecast widespread defaults – more likely, selective distress in marginal players.   Risks on the Horizon: Immigration, Labor, and Fragility Beyond rates and rent rolls, Nebenzahl highlights three structural risks that CRE professionals should monitor closely: Immigration policy: Rental demand and construction labor both depend heavily on immigrant populations. Recent restrictions, including H1-B visa tightening and deportations, have had a measurable cooling effect. “Immigrants rent across the income spectrum,” he notes. “A slowdown hits both the demand side and the build (supply) side.” Aging trades workforce: With fewer young workers entering skilled trades, the industry faces a slow-burning capacity problem. The average age of electricians, plumbers, and roofers is steadily rising, and backfilling this labor pool remains an unsolved challenge. Tariffs and supply chain volatility: Tariffs on building materials could push up construction costs 2–3%, and as Nebenzahl notes, those costs would disproportionately impact steel-heavy high-rise multifamily more than low-rise SFR or garden-style.   Monetary Fog: The Fed, Rates, and Global Perception Much of the future, however, depends on interest rates and here Nebenzahl expresses qualified caution. While he believes we are “above neutral” levels now, he doesn't expect a return to near zero interest rates. “Even in a mild recession, I don't see the 10-year Treasury falling below 3–3.5%,” he says.   But more troubling is what he calls the “qualitative fog”: rising geopolitical tension, politicization of monetary policy, and eroding investor trust in American stability. “We're hearing less ‘there is no alternative' about the U.S.,” he says. “Foreign capital is pausing. Not exiting – but pausing.” That loss of automatic confidence in U.S. housing and Treasuries could ripple through cap rates and investment demand far more than a 25-basis-point Fed decision.   What to Watch: Nebenzahl's Key Indicators For professionals managing exposure in this market, Nebenzahl advises watching: Job growth – Still the most reliable proxy for household formation. Household formation – Where people are forming new households, rentals are likely to benefit. Treasury market confidence – A real-time referendum on U.S. economic credibility.   Final Thoughts: Where He'd Put $1 Million Today Asked how he'd allocate $1M today, Nebenzahl doesn't hesitate: “I'd split it between Midwest and Sunbelt rentals, multifamily and build-to-rent.”   He's not holding cash. He's not forecasting a crash. He's betting on rental fundamentals and long-term demographic logic.   “There's dry powder waiting to be deployed,” he concludes. “And multifamily is still one of the most institutionally resilient plays in U.S. real estate.”   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

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What may be found about Kerry in the newly released Virtual Treasury Project which was established to try to recover as much as possible documents that were lost in the 1922 fire at the Public Records Office. That blaze during the Civil War destroyed almost 700 years’ worth of records. Jerry spoke to historian Dr Owen O’Shea from Milltown. https://virtualtreasury.ie/

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [DS]/[CB] manipulated the people into believing we were in a climate crisis, they changed the graphics to convince you it was hotter than the past, big fail. Elon is focusing in on the [CB] system and bringing attention to it. Michael Horowitz has been named IG of the Fed. Pieces are put into place. BBB passed Senate, this is just the beginning. The [DS] was distracted with the BBB, they went after the section that Trump setup to draw them away from what he wants. Trump calls for the arrest of Mayorkas. The [DS] had Elon and used his technology. They gave the tech to Iran and NK to build rockets to be used for WWIII. It seems that Trump is setting Elon free from all that by cutting all subsidies to the the green new scam. Optics are important. All roads lead to Obama and the [CB].   Economy https://twitter.com/cruadin/status/1940008358347489779   https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1939930016306942088   the mandates would be going, and he's said repeatedly in the past that the EV subsidy should end: “If you eliminated all EV incentives tomorrow, Tesla's competitive position would improve significantly. I'll say that again. If you eliminated all EV tax credits, Tesla's position would improve immediately.” S  https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/1939910877563490753   https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/1939915436943872198 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1940001236108918819 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1939909939037901204 The U.S. debt ceiling has been raised, extended, or revised 78 times since 1960, according to multiple sources, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Council on Foreign Relations. This includes 49 times under Republican presidents and 29 times under Democratic presidents. Some sources, like USA Today, suggest it has been raised at least 100 times since 1940, but the most commonly cited figure for the modern era (post-1960) is 78. Over the years, the debt ceiling has not been an effective mechanism for stopping waste and fraud in government spending. The debt ceiling is a legislative cap on the total amount of debt the U.S. government can incur, requiring Congressional approval to raise or extend it to allow continued borrowing for existing obligations, such as funding authorized programs, servicing debt, and meeting other financial commitments. Its primary function is to limit the government's borrowing capacity, not to regulate the quality, efficiency, or integrity of spending.Why the Debt Ceiling Doesn't Stop Waste and Fraud:  The debt ceiling addresses the aggregate level of federal debt, not specific budget items or program management. It does not inherently scrutinize or eliminate wasteful or fraudulent expenditures, which occur within the budgeting and execution of individual programs.   Debt ceiling debates often serve as political leverage for broader fiscal or policy negotiations (e.g., spending cuts or tax reforms). While these discussions may occasionally highlight waste or fraud rhetorically, the ceiling itself does not directly target or address such issues. For example, during debt ceiling negotiations in 2011 or 2023, the focus was on overall spending reductions or policy concessions, not specific anti-fraud measures.  Waste and fraud are typically addressed through other processes, such as: Audits by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) or Inspectors General (IGs) within federal agencies.

In this episode, Stephan reconnects with Stephen Cole to discuss the evolving landscape of Bitcoin, particularly focusing on the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies and the launch of Castle, a new venture aimed at automating Bitcoin treasury management for small and medium businesses. They explore the implications of Bitcoin adoption for small businesses, the importance of hard tech, and the potential for Bitcoin to serve as a foundational asset for future innovations. The conversation emphasizes the need for businesses to adapt to sound money principles and the role of technology in facilitating this transition.Takeaways

Many federal workers in Kansas City have seen their jobs and departments cut and their work devalued under the Trump administration. We're bringing you another conversation about the Department of Government Efficiency's impacts in town, this time with a local union representative for the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

Join Climate Group North America's Board Chair Governor Bill Ritter and Executive Director Angela Barranco for a special live bonus episode on what's at stake in HR1, the OBBB reconciliation package, recently passed by the US Senate. Featuring insights from Rich Powell (CEO of Clean Energy Buyers Association (CEBA)), Kristina Costa (former White House official), Ted Lee (former Treasury tax policy official), and Climate Group's Director of Energy Sam Kimmins, this session unpacks the bill's potential impacts on US clean energy investment, renewable energy deployment, and the future of US decarbonization efforts.

Tom Bodrovics welcomes Edward Dowd, founder of Phinance Technologies, to the show to discuss the unfolding economic landscape and the probable looming recession. Dowd explains that initial recession predictions for late 2023 and early 2024 were incorrect due to an unprecedented economic variable: mass illegal immigration. He estimates that between 20 million people were brought into the U.S. over three-and-a-half years, supported by deficit spending ranging from $500 billion to $2 trillion. This influx of labor and spending temporarily propped up the economy, masking underlying weaknesses, particularly in the housing market. However, with the Trump administration now halting immigration flows and initiating deportations, Dowd expects a significant economic impact. Housing, which constitutes 20% of the consumption economy and 45% of the CPI, is already rolling over, with new home sales plummeting and delinquencies rising. Dowd predicts this will lead to a housing-driven recession, similar to the 2008 crisis but less systemic, barring an oil price shock. Inflation, which Dowd believes is overstated due to faulty shelter cost metrics, is expected to fall below 2% by year-end. This deflationary trend will likely prompt the Fed to cut rates, but Dowd warns that rate cuts during an economic downturn are bearish for stocks, as seen in 2000 and 2008. He advises investors to focus on U.S. Treasury bonds and gold, which is being re-monetized as a tier-one capital asset. Dowd also highlights the potential for fiscal dominance to worsen, with governments globally struggling under unsustainable debt burdens. He points to Europe and Japan as particularly vulnerable due to demographic declines and debt crises, which could lead to currency collapses or conflicts. In the U.S., he emphasizes the need for fiscal discipline and warns that the current debt trajectory, exacerbated by the Biden administration's spending, will require painful adjustments. Despite the challenges, Dowd sees opportunities for younger generations should a reset come for the housing markets and for investors during the eventual market correction. Timestamps:00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:36 - Metrics & U.S Outlook00:05:16 - Real Estate & Oil Crisis00:08:04 - U.S. Employment Stats00:11:47 - Fiscal Hangover & DXY00:14:34 - Fear & Dollar Safety?00:15:30 - Fiscal Dominance & Fed00:17:47 - Asset Allocation Changes00:19:27 - CPI & Fed Reactions00:25:50 - Powell's Replacment & Q.E.00:27:23 - Recession & Risk Assets00:28:48 - Conflicts, Truth, & Timing00:32:16 - Gold's Behavior & Oil00:34:05 - Trump, Threats, Econ Shocks00:36:24 - Finding Good Information00:39:41 - Distractions & Geopolitics00:40:13 - Euro & Asian Demographics00:45:12 - Taxes & Gov't Desperation00:47:44 - Macro Econ. Alt. Hedge Fund00:48:48 - Depressions & Commodities00:50:05 - Wrap Up Guest Links:X: https://x.com/DowdEdwardGETTR: @EdwardDowdLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-dowd-87902158/ Edward Dowd is a founding partner with Phinance Technologies. Edward worked on Wall Street the majority of his career most notably at Blackrock as a portfolio manager where he managed a $14 billion Growth equity portfolio for ten years. His book 'Cause Unknown: The Epidemic of Sudden Death in 2021 & 2022' propelled him as an alternative voice during the pandemic and the economic implications that continue to plague us today. Their unique alternative macroeconomic analysis of the global debt crisis and what may unfold has given many a deeper understanding of the global nature of our problems today.

In episode 6 of the Bitcoin for Corporations Show, Pierre Rochard sits down with Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy Digital, for a wide-ranging and high-signal discussion on the emerging wave of Bitcoin treasury strategy companies.Thorn breaks down the mechanics of Strategy's (formerly MicroStrategy) success, the role of financial engineering, and how Michael Saylor created a model that's difficult—if not impossible—for others to replicate. He introduces the concept of a "great filter" facing the next generation of Bitcoin-focused public companies: only a few will pass through it.⭐ This episode of the Bitcoin for Corporations Show is sponsored by Ledn, a leading provider of Bitcoin-backed loans.

In this episode, Paul Galloway joins Pushpendra Mehta to explore compliance and network optimization in treasury. From KYC and BOI filings to payment screening, Paul shares leading practices for managing risk and ensuring uptime. Discover how strategic compliance and robust networks support security, resilience, and competitive advantage. Check out the Leading Practices in Treasury ebook or audiobook here: https://strategictreasurer.com/ebook-leading-practices-in-treasury/?utm_source=STEBKpage Prefer video? Watch the full version here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJotnXwxIvw  

The Deputy Prime Minister believes the Government would be better off with the part-privatisation of Interislander ferries. A Treasury paper presented to Cabinet by the Minister for Rail, Winston Peters, says the Government can consider private investment to reduce costs. David Seymour agrees with the idea and says the Government has been far too relaxed with capital. He told Mike Hosking the Government is not a good operator of commercial enterprises, and there's no shortage of evidence for that. Seymour says you have to balance the books, and at the moment the Government owns too many underperforming assets. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today's blockchain and cryptocurrency news  Bitcoin is down slightly at $107,035 Eth is down slightly at $2,446 XRP, is down slightly at $2.09 ACX drops on allegations tied to Binance listing Hackers have extracted $2.1B in the first half of 2025 Bakkt to raise for crypto treasury FBI arrets serial hacker. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised ‘massive concessions' over concerns about disability benefits.These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury's finances. Early estimates suggest that the welfare bill climbdown could cost £2 billion: money which Rachel Reeves will now have to find elsewhere. Can Starmer recover? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Luke Tryl, director of More in Common.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

The Commerce and Treasury secretaries say the U.S. is close to securing more trade deals. Plus: Nike stock jumps after better-than-expected earnings. Julia Carpenter hosts.  Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Listen for the latest from Bloomberg News See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In recent years, an increasing number of companies has embraced Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasury strategy. Matthew Sigel, VanEck's head of digital assets research, warned that some companies might be on the brink of “capital erosion.” In simple terms, capital erosion occurs when a company's value (or shareholders' equity) diminishes despite the company's holdings in Bitcoin.~This Episode is Sponsored By Coinbase~ Buy $50 & Get $50 for getting started on Coinbase➜ https://bit.ly/CBARRON00:00 Intro00:13 Sponsor: Coinbase00:44 Bitcoin Treasury List01:30 Cathie: Microstrategy Premium will fall02:30 BTC Maxis vs ETH03:05 Another Bitcoin Company Moves to ETH03:30 BTCS: First Bitcoin Miner moves to ETH05:27 Microsoft waiting on staking ETF's06:02 Enterprise Ethereum Alliance06:52 Google CEO: Younger demographics vs Bitcoin07:20 Tokenized Gold more trusted than Bitcoin soon?07:57 Jim Cramer cries over Apple stock09:56 Apple Q1 data10:42 Creator Economy Coming to ETH11:33 Outro#Crypto #Ethereum #Bitcoin~Bitcoin Treasury Hype Dead or Early?

Send us a textTax Notes investigations editor Lauren Loricchio discusses Treasury's information sharing agreement with the Department of Homeland Security and its implications for immigrants. Read Loricchio's full story in Tax Notes, "Information Sharing Deal Complicates Immigrant Return Filing."For more on what's been happening at the IRS, check out our previous episodes:Past IRS Commissioners Analyze Agency Changes Under TrumpIRS Automated Guidance: Pros and ConsBehind the Story: Investigating the Faults in the IRS's FOIA SystemThe Latest at the IRS: Personnel Changes, More Staff ReductionsFollow us on X:Lauren Loricchio: @LaurenLoricchioDavid Stewart: @TaxStewTax Notes: @TaxNotes**Have you or a peer made a lasting impact on state and local tax policy? Nominations for the 2025 Tax Analysts State and Local Tax Award of Distinction are open. For more information or to nominate someone, go to taxnotes.co/awards.***CreditsHost: David D. StewartExecutive Producers: Jasper B. Smith, Paige JonesProducers: Jordan Parrish, Peyton RhodesAudio Engineers: Jordan Parrish, Peyton Rhodes

This Day in Legal History: Federal Housing AdministrationOn June 27, 1934, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) was created through the National Housing Act, marking a major shift in the federal government's role in the housing market. The FHA was designed to address the housing crisis of the Great Depression, when foreclosures were rampant and private lenders were reluctant to issue long-term mortgages. By insuring loans made by private lenders, the FHA significantly reduced the risk of default, making it easier and more affordable for Americans to buy homes.The FHA introduced standardized, amortized 20- and 30-year mortgages—innovations that quickly became industry norms. These reforms expanded access to home financing for middle-class families and jump-started suburban development. However, the agency's early policies also entrenched racial segregation through redlining, where predominantly Black neighborhoods were systematically denied FHA-backed loans.While the FHA has since evolved and is now part of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), its legacy is a mix of increased homeownership and the deepening of racial disparities in wealth and housing. The legal framework it helped establish continues to shape U.S. housing policy today, making it a pivotal moment in both real estate law and civil rights history. Retired U.S. Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy voiced alarm over the state of American political discourse during a recent international judicial forum, warning that the tone of current debates poses a threat to democracy and freedom. Speaking without directly referencing President Trump, Kennedy criticized the rise of identity politics and emphasized that civil discourse should be about issues, not partisan affiliations. He argued that judges are essential to a functioning democracy and must be protected—both physically and in terms of public respect.Other speakers, including South African jurist Richard Goldstone and U.S. District Judge Esther Salas, echoed Kennedy's concerns. Goldstone condemned personal attacks on judges who ruled against the current administration, while Salas highlighted the growing danger judges face, referencing her own experience with targeted violence and the record-high levels of threats now being reported in the U.S.The event underscored a growing consensus among jurists worldwide: that political attacks on the judiciary undermine democratic institutions and risk eroding the rule of law.Retired US Supreme Court Justice Kennedy warns 'freedom is at risk' | ReutersA federal judge has rejected a joint attempt by Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to finalize a reduced settlement in their long-running legal battle over unregistered XRP token sales. U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres criticized both parties for proposing a $50 million fine in lieu of a previously imposed $125 million penalty and for attempting to nullify a permanent injunction she had ordered.Judge Torres ruled in 2023 that Ripple's public XRP sales weren't securities, but $728 million in sales to institutional investors violated federal securities laws. While both sides appealed, they later proposed to settle—if the court would cancel the injunction and approve the reduced fine. Torres refused, stating they lacked authority to override a court's final judgment involving a violation of congressional statute.She emphasized that exceptional circumstances justifying the request were not present and that vacating a permanent injunction would undermine the public interest and the administration of justice. The SEC and Ripple still have the option to continue their appeals or drop them entirely.The case is notable amid a broader shift under President Trump's second term, during which the SEC has dropped several high-profile crypto enforcement actions. XRP remains one of the top cryptocurrencies by market value.SEC, Ripple wants to settle crypto lawsuit, but US judge rebuffs them | ReutersThe Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to move forward with its plan to end automatic birthright citizenship by narrowing the scope of judicial injunctions. Previously, lower courts had issued nationwide injunctions blocking the policy, but the Court ruled these injunctions should apply only to the parties involved in the lawsuits. This means that the policy can now proceed in most states, except those like New Hampshire where separate legal challenges remain in effect. The Court's decision followed ideological lines, with the conservative majority backing the administration and liberal justices dissenting. Justice Amy Coney Barrett, writing for the majority, emphasized that courts must not overreach their authority even when they find executive actions unlawful. In contrast, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson warned the ruling could erode the rule of law by allowing inconsistent application of federal policy across states.The ruling does not address the constitutionality of ending birthright citizenship, leaving that question open for future litigation. The Trump administration's executive order, issued on January 20, 2025, reinterprets the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause to exclude children born in the U.S. to non-citizen or non-resident parents. This reinterpretation challenges the longstanding understanding established by the 1898 Supreme Court case United States v. Wong Kim Ark, which confirmed that nearly all individuals born on U.S. soil are citizens. The administration has argued that judges lack the authority to impose broad injunctions and that states challenging the policy lack standing. While the policy remains blocked in certain jurisdictions, the administration can now continue planning for its implementation and potentially face a patchwork of future legal challenges.Supreme Court curbs injunctions that blocked Trump's birthright citizenship planIn a piece I wrote for Forbes yesterday, the Trump administration briefly floated Section 899, a provision dubbed the “revenge tax,” as a retaliatory measure against countries imposing taxes deemed discriminatory toward U.S. companies—particularly tech giants. This measure, hidden within the broader One Big Beautiful Bill Act, proposed punitive tax increases on income earned in the U.S. by individuals and entities linked to “discriminatory foreign countries.” The policy was a response to international developments like the OECD's Pillar 2 framework and digital services taxes (DSTs), which the U.S. perceived as disproportionately targeting American firms.Section 899 would have enabled the Treasury to impose annual 5% tax hikes on everything from dividends to real estate gains, even overriding exemptions for sovereign wealth funds. What made the provision particularly aggressive was its vague triggering criteria—any foreign tax Treasury considered “unfair” could activate the penalties, without congressional oversight.Despite its bold intent, Section 899 was ultimately abandoned. It generated concern among investors and foreign governments alike, with critics warning it would destabilize capital markets and act as an unofficial sanctions regime. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent eventually signaled its withdrawal, citing improved diplomatic relations. Though shelved for now, the idea may resurface if international tax disputes escalate.Section 899—The ‘Revenge Tax' That Didn't SurviveA double dose of me this week, another piece I wrote for Forbes:The Pro Codes Act, currently before Congress as H.R.4072, poses a serious threat to public access to the law by allowing private organizations to retain copyright over technical standards—even after those standards are incorporated by reference into statutes and regulations. Although pitched as a transparency measure, the bill effectively transforms enforceable legal obligations into intellectual property governed by restrictive licenses and online viewer limitations.The Act would require standards to be “publicly accessible,” but this access might mean only being able to view documents behind login walls, with no ability to download, search, or integrate them into legal or compliance tools. This is particularly troubling in areas like tax law, where these standards often form the basis for determining eligibility for deductions or credits.By commodifying access to legal standards, the Pro Codes Act would introduce a two-tiered system: well-resourced firms could pay for commercial access, while small legal clinics, nonprofits, and individuals could find themselves effectively barred from the rules they're legally obligated to follow. The result is an unequal legal landscape where justice becomes contingent on financial capacity.The bill directly undermines a key legal principle reaffirmed by the Supreme Court in 2020: laws and materials carrying the force of law cannot be copyrighted. Permitting private entities to control access to mandatory standards shifts power away from the public and toward entities seeking to monetize compliance.Pro Codes Act—Or, What If The Law Came Behind A Paywall?This week's closing theme is Variations sérieuses, Op. 54 by Felix Mendelssohn—a composer whose elegance, intellect, and structural precision made him one of the early Romantic era's brightest voices. Born into a wealthy, culturally vibrant German-Jewish family in 1809, Mendelssohn was a child prodigy whose musical maturity arrived astonishingly early. He played a pivotal role in reviving J.S. Bach's legacy and was admired for his orchestral works, choral music, and virtuosic piano writing.Composed in 1841, the Variations sérieuses reflect a side of Mendelssohn that is often overshadowed by his lighter, more lyrical pieces. Written as a contribution to a fundraising album for a monument to Beethoven, the work pays tribute to that master's weight and depth. In this set of 17 variations on a solemn original theme, Mendelssohn channels both Classical form and Romantic intensity. The variations begin introspectively but grow in technical difficulty and emotional force, culminating in a stormy, almost defiant finale.Unlike many variation sets of the time, which favored decorative flourishes, Mendelssohn's sérieuses live up to their name: they are dense, architecturally rigorous, and deeply expressive. The piece showcases his command of counterpoint, his sensitivity to dynamic contrasts, and his ability to build drama without sacrificing formal clarity. It's music that demands both interpretive depth and virtuosity—qualities that have kept it central to the serious piano repertoire for over 180 years. Mendelssohn once described music as a language too precise for words, and this piece speaks volumes in that tongue. It is a fitting and focused way to close the week.Without further ado, Variations sérieuses, Op. 54 by Felix Mendelssohn – enjoy! This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matt Hornbach and U.S. Economist Michael Gapen assess the Fed's path forward in light of inflation and a weaker economy, and the likely market outcomes.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today we're discussing the outcome of the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting and our expectations for rates, inflation, and the U.S. dollar from here. It's Thursday, June 26th at 10am in New York. Matt Hornbach: Mike, the Federal Reserve decided to hold the federal funds rate steady, remaining within its target range of 4.25 to 4.5 percent. It still anticipates two rate cuts by the end of 2025; but participants adjusted their projections further out suggesting fewer cuts in 2026 and 2027. You, on the other hand, continue to think the Fed will stay on hold for the rest of this year, with a lot of cuts to follow in 2026. What specifically is behind your view, and are there any underappreciated dynamics here? Michael Gapen: So, we've been highlighting three reasons why we think the Fed will cut late but cut more. The first is tariffs introduce differential timing effects on the economy. They tend to push inflation higher in the near term and they weaken consumer spending with a lag. If tariffs act as a tax on consumption, that tax is applied by pushing prices higher – and then only subsequently do consumers spend less because they have less real income to spend. So, we think the Fed will be seeing more inflation first before it sees the weaker labor market later. The second part of our story is immigration. Immigration controls mean it's likely to be much harder to push the unemployment rate higher. That's because when we go from about 3 million immigrants per year down to about 300,000 – that means much lower growth in the labor force. So even if the economy does slow and labor demand moderates, the unemployment rate is likely to remain low. So again, that's similar to the tariff story where the Fed's likely to see more inflation now before it sees a weaker labor market later. And third, we don't really expect a big impulse from fiscal policy. The bill that's passed the house and is sitting in the Senate, we'll see where that ultimately ends up. But the details that we have in hand today about those bills don't lead us to believe that we'll have a big impulse or a big boost to growth from fiscal policy next year. So, in total the Fed will see a lot of inflation in the near term and a weaker economy as we move into 2026. So, the Fed will be waiting to ensure that that inflation impulse is indeed transitory, but a Fed that cuts late will ultimately end up cutting more. So we don't have rate hikes this year, Matt, as you noted. But we do have 175 basis points in rate cuts next year. Matt Hornbach: So, Mike, looking through the transcript of the press conference, the word tariffs was used almost 30 times. What does the Fed's messaging say to you about its expectations around tariffs? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so it does look like in this meeting, participants did take a stand that tariffs were going to be higher, and they likely proceeded under the assumption of about a 14 percent effective tariff rate. So, I think you can see three imprints that tariffs have on their forecast.First, they're saying that inflation moves higher, and in the press conference Powell said explicitly that the Fed thinks inflation will be moving higher over the summer months. And they revised their headline and core PCE forecast higher to about 3 percent and 3.1 percent – significant upward revisions from where they had things earlier in the year in March before tariffs became clear. The second component here is the Fed thinks any inflation story will be transitory. Famous last words, of course. But the Fed forecast that inflation will fall back towards the 2 percent target in 2026 and 2027; so near-term impulse that fades over time. And third, the Fed sees tariffs as slowing economic growth. The Fed revised lower its outlook for growth in real GDP this year. So, in some [way], by incorporating tariffs and putting such a significant imprint on the forecast, the Fed's outlook has actually moved more in the direction of our own forecast. Matt Hornbach: I'd like to stay on the topic of geopolitics. In contrast to the word tariffs, the words Middle East only was mentioned three times during the press conference. With the weekend events there, investor concerns are growing about a spike in oil prices. How do you think the Fed will think about any supply-driven rise in energy, commodity prices here? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think the Fed will view this as another element that suggests slower growth and stickier inflation. I think it will reinforce the Fed's view of what tariffs and immigration controls do to the outlook. Because historically when we look at shocks to oil prices in the U.S.; if you get about a 10 percent rise in oil prices from here, like another $10 increase in oil prices; history would suggest that will move headline inflation higher because it gets passed directly into retail gasoline prices. So maybe a 30 to 40 basis point increase in a year-on-year rate of inflation. But the evidence also suggests very limited second round effects, and almost no change in core inflation. So, you get a boost to headline inflation, but no persistence elements – very similar to what the Fed thinks tariffs will do. And of course, the higher cost of gasoline will eat into consumer purchasing power. So, on that, I think it's another force that suggests a slower growth, stickier inflation outlook is likely to prevail.Okay Matt, you've had me on the hot seat. Now it's your turn. How do you think about the market pricing of the Fed's policy path from here? It certainly seems to conflict with how I'm thinking about the most likely path. Matt Hornbach: So, when we look at market prices, we have to remember that they are representing an average path across all various paths that different investors might think are more likely than not. So, the market price today, has about 100 basis points of cuts by the end of 2026. That contrasts both with your path in terms of magnitude. You are forecasting 175 basis points of rate cuts; the market is only pricing in 100. But also, the market pricing contrasts with your policy path in that the market does have some rate cuts in the price for this year, whereas your most likely path does not. So that's how I look at the market price. You know, the question then becomes, where does it go to from here? And that's something that we ultimately are incorporating into our forecasts for the level of Treasury yields. Michael Gapen: Right. So, turning to that, so moving a little further out the curve into those longer dated Treasury yields. What do you think about those? Your forecast suggests lower yields over the next year and a half. When do you think that process starts to play out? Matt Hornbach: So, in our projections, we have Treasury yields moving lower, really beginning in the fourth quarter of this year. And that is to align with the timing of when you see the Fed beginning to lower rates, which is in the first quarter of next year. So, market prices tend to get ahead of different policy actions, and we expect that to remain the case this year as well. As we approach the end of the year, we are expecting Treasury yields to begin falling more precipitously than they have over recent months. But what are the risks around that projection? In our view, the risks are that this process starts earlier rather than later. In other words, where we have most conviction in our projections is in the direction of travel for Treasury yields as opposed to the timing of exactly when they begin to fall. So, we are recommending that investors begin gearing up for lower Treasury yields even today. But in our projections, you'll see our numbers really begin to fall in the fourth quarter of the year, such that the 10-year Treasury yield ends this year around 4 percent, and it ends 2026 closer to 3 percent. Michael Gapen: And these days it's really impossible to talk about movements in Treasury yields without thinking about the U.S. dollar. So how are you thinking about the dollar amidst the conflict in the Middle East and your outlook for Treasury yields? Matt Hornbach: So, we are projecting the U.S. dollar will depreciate another 10 percent over the next 12 to 18 months. That's coming on the back of a pretty dramatic decline in the value of the dollar in the first six months of this year, where it also declined by about 10 percent in terms of its value against other currencies. So, we are expecting a continued depreciation, and the conflict in the Middle East and what it may end up doing to the energy complex is a key risk to our view that the dollar will continue to depreciate, if we end up seeing a dramatic rise in crude oil prices. That rise would end up benefiting countries, and the currencies of those countries who are net exporters of oil; and may end up hurting the countries and the currencies of the countries that are net importers of oil. The good news is that the United States doesn't really import a lot of oil these days, but neither is it a large net exporter either.So, the U.S. in some sense turns out to be a bit of a neutral party in this particular issue. But if we see a rise in energy prices that could benefit other currencies more than it benefits the U.S. dollar. And therefore, we could see a temporary reprieve in the dollar's depreciation, which would then push our forecast perhaps a little bit further into the future. So, with that, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: It's great speaking with you, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Listener Q&A where Andy talks about: A short explanation of bonds and "the bond market" ( 2:48 )Are actively managed bond funds better than passive bond funds ( 21:53 )What are the pros and cons of making all of the year's estimated tax payments in the first quarter ( 30:30 )Why insurers don't offer a long term care product with a 2-3 years elimination period or deductible to cover just LTC needs beyond a few years ( 34:07 )His thoughts on getting retirement income from dividends, Treasury interest and municipal bond interest ( 37:20 )Are there any advisors who specialize in working with couples where only one couple is involved in the household finances ( 42:47 )Are there any disadvantages to converting ALL pre-tax account balances to Roth ( 46:20 )Is disability income considered "earned income" and eligible to make IRA or Roth IRA contributions ( 55:30 )To send Andy questions to be addressed on future Q&A episodes, email andy@andypanko.comMy company newsletter - Retirement Planning InsightsFacebook group - Retirement Planning Education (formerly Taxes in Retirement)YouTube channel - Retirement Planning Education (formerly Retirement Planning Demystified)Retirement Planning Education website - www.RetirementPlanningEducation.com

In this episode we answer questions from Mason, Brian, and Anonymous.  We discuss portfolio transitions from a highly overlapped portfolio and related consideration, treasury strips funds and leveraged ETFs (twice), and the power of advice from the great Jim Rohn.  UNLIMITED POWER.Just remember that "Affirmation without discipline is the beginning of delusion."And we discuss our campaign for the Father McKenna Center and Quebecois updates to our website.Links:Father McKenna Center Donation Page:  Donate - Father McKenna CenterThe Source of the "We Don't Know" Clip:  Jim Rohn Join the 3% Club and Walk away from the 97%Breathless Unedited AI-Bot Summary:Transforming your portfolio into a risk parity approach doesn't have to be complicated, but it does require both strategy and courage. This episode dives deep into listener questions about making that transition while navigating tax implications and psychological barriers.When Mason asks about converting his advisor-built collection of funds into a risk parity portfolio, Frank reveals a crucial insight most investors miss: holding multiple similar funds creates "false diversification." Those four large-cap funds in your portfolio? They're basically the same investment with different names. True diversification comes from understanding what's inside each fund, not collecting different tickers.For those curious about leveraged ETFs like UPRO, Brian's question leads to fascinating observations about why some leveraged products perform better than others. The conversation reveals why Treasury strips funds like GOVZ/ZROZ make reasonable substitutions for standard Treasury allocations, while leveraged gold ETFs might be problematic for long-term investors. Frank shares his personal experience reducing his own UPRO allocation and explains why experimentation with small portions of your portfolio is the wisest approach to newer investment strategies.The philosophical foundation of the show emerges when a listener asks about the "Nobody Knows" sound clip. The attribution to motivational speaker Jim Rohn opens a window into the mindset that drives successful investing. Rohn's philosophy that "affirmation without discipline is the beginning of delusion" perfectly captures why just thinking about better investment outcomes isn't enough—you must take action to create them.Ready to reshape your investment approach? This episode provides both the practical steps and the motivational spark to move forward confidently. As Rohn reminds us, "If you think investing is risky, wait till you get the tab for not investing."Support the show

Kevin Chin, CEO of VivoPower, and Adam Traidman, Chairman of the Board of Advisors for VivoPower, joined me to discuss VivoPower's XRP Treasury Strategy.Topics: - VivoPower(VVPR) Overview - Why XRP was chosen as a Treasury Asset - Building a DeFi ecosystem with XRP and Flare - Using BitGo for custody - Future of Crypto Treasury Strategy - Risks with market downsides - Holding and using the RLUSD stablecoin Show Sponsor -

ABA's new online platform to provide members with free access to the Treasury Check Verification System is now live. On a special joint episode of the ABA Banking Journal Podcast and ABA Fraudcast — presented by Intrafi's Banking with Interest podcast — ABA anti-fraud experts Paul Benda and Hannah Ibberson discuss the platform and how banks can put it to use. Among other topics, Benda and Ibberson discuss: The scale of physical U.S. Treasury checks and why they remained a potential vector for fraud How and why ABA developed the platform How ABA member bank employees — including frontline staff — can access the portal to verify a payee Ways this new platform fits into ABA's overall anti-fraud initiatives Click here to download the episode if you can't see the player above. Access the TCVS portal (ABA bank members only)

Joseph Onorati, CEO of the Defi Development Corporation, joined me to discuss the company's Solana treasury strategy.Topics: - DeFi Development Corp overview - Choosing Solana as a treasury reserve asset - Cantor Fitzgerald coverage of Solana treasury companies - Trend of companies using Crypto as a treasury reserve asset - Risks that come with a bear marketShow Sponsor -

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was associate editor and columnist for the The Wall Street Journal and was appointed by President Reagan to Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and was confirmed in office by the U.S. Senate. He talks patriots falling being indoctrinated, political theater in the Middle East, what's next for Israel, Russia not backing Iran, China, the MAGA movement being split and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!   Watch Show Rumble- https://rumble.com/v6v9pf1-was-the-iran-attack-just-political-theater-paul-craig-roberts.html YouTube- https://youtu.be/-WlE3IPTgso   Follow Me X- https://x.com/CoffeeandaMike IG- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ YouTube- https://www.youtube.com/@Coffeeandamike Rumble- https://rumble.com/search/all?q=coffee%20and%20a%20mike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Apple Podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/coffee-and-a-mike/id1436799008 Gab- https://gab.com/CoffeeandaMike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com   Support My Work Venmo- https://www.venmo.com/u/coffeeandamike Paypal- https://www.paypal.com/biz/profile/Coffeeandamike Substack- https://coffeeandamike.substack.com/ Patreon- http://patreon.com/coffeeandamike Locals- https://coffeeandamike.locals.com/ Cash App- https://cash.app/$coffeeandamike Buy Me a Coffee- https://buymeacoffee.com/coffeeandamike Bitcoin- coffeeandamike@strike.me   Mail Check or Money Order- Coffee and a Mike LLC P.O. Box 25383 Scottsdale, AZ 85255-9998   Follow Dr. Roberts Website- https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/   Sponsors Vaulted/Precious Metals- https://vaulted.blbvux.net/coffeeandamike McAlvany Precious Metals- https://mcalvany.com/coffeeandamike/ Independence Ark Natural Farming- https://www.independenceark.com/  

Crypto News: Bitcoin reverses and price moves over $105,000 again, is the bottom in? Anthony Pompliano is doing a $1 billion BitcoinTreasury Company SPAC. The Federal reserve is easing crypto banking restrictions. Show Sponsor - ✅ VeChain is a versatile enterprise-grade L1 smart contract platform https://www.vechain.org/

After launching air strikes on Iranian unclear facilities over the weekend, President Trump posted to Truth Social, demanding that U.S. oil firms “drill, baby, drill.” Although ongoing conflict in the Middle East could balloon oil prices, it's unlikely that domestic producers are racing to ramp up production just yet. Also in this episode: Renting may be more appealing than buying right now, Treasury auctions see stability, and tariffs threaten the success of a Wyoming trona mine.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

After launching air strikes on Iranian unclear facilities over the weekend, President Trump posted to Truth Social, demanding that U.S. oil firms “drill, baby, drill.” Although ongoing conflict in the Middle East could balloon oil prices, it's unlikely that domestic producers are racing to ramp up production just yet. Also in this episode: Renting may be more appealing than buying right now, Treasury auctions see stability, and tariffs threaten the success of a Wyoming trona mine.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Gemini, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Bitcoin Price Tumbles Amid Iran-Israel War Escalation Senate Passes Stablecoin Bill Trump Slams Fed for Not Cutting Rates Texas Signs Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill into Law $SMLR Plans To Buy 105,000 Bitcoins Strategy Stacks More BTC as Saylor Predicts $21 Million Bitcoin Price Can Bitcoin Defund Wars?  Read the full, free weekly newsletter at thenewsblock.substack.com ---- Invest as you spend with the Gemini Bitcoin Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The new orange Gemini Credit Card lets you earn Bitcoin on everything you buy: www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- References mentioned in the episode: President Trump's Post on “Successful Bombing” of Iran Iran's Foreign Prime Minister: “U.S. Crossed the Line” Iran Claims “No Nuclear Contamination from U.S. Bombings”  Iran's Parliament Officially Approves Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Bloomberg: “How Iran Could Wreak Havoc on Global Oil Trade” Fed's Jerome Powell Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged  Waller: A Fed Cut Could Come as Soon as July  Trump Pressures “Too Late Powell” to Cut in Post Trump Post Directed at Jerome Powell to Cut Rates Bessent Interview on Stablecoins and Dollar Supremacy  David Sacks Interview on GENIUS Act Passing Senate  Trump's Comments on the GENIUS Act Passing Senate Trump Urges House to Send Him the GENIUS Act ASAP Texas Signs Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill into Law Coin Stories Interview with Eric Semler and Renae Cormier  Smarter Web Company Raises 21 Million Shares  Semler Scientific Hires Bitcoin Veteran and Announces Plans DayDayCook Raises More Than $500 Million to Buy Bitcoin Alex Gladstein's Article on Fiat and Forever Wars ---- Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl is a senior vice president and the senior advisor to President Lorie Logan of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Sam returns to the show to discuss recent macroeconomic conferences in the context of changes in the Treasury market and with central bank operating systems around the globe. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on May 27th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Bumper 00:00:20 - Intro 00:01:19 - Monetary Policy Conferences 00:03:15 - Role of Nonbank Institutions in the Treasury and Money Markets 00:07:48 - Central Clearing 00:33:19 - Operating Systems in Central Banks 00:49:52 - Outro

You've ridden along this week with Stigall on his "Trust Trump" prescription for this fight between Israel and Iran and yesterday proved why that's sound advice. Why are Senate Republicans squabbling over Medicaid cuts? And the media continues to frame the "big beautiful bill" as something that only spends and generates no new revenue for the Treasury. Jim Pfaff of the Conservative Caucus on what he's hearing from people inside the debate on Capitol Hill. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins makes a surprise appearance toward the end of the show today to discuss migrant work on farms versus Tom Homan and ICE's commitment to deport illegal aliens. Can farms function without illegal labor? -For more info visit the official website: https://chrisstigall.comInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/chrisstigallshow/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChrisStigallFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/chris.stigall/Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/StigallPodListen on Apple Podcasts: https://bit.ly/StigallShow -Help protect your wealth with real, physical gold and silver. Texas Bullion Exchange helps everyday Americans diversify with tailored portfolios, IRA rollovers, and expert support every step of the way.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe [DS]/[CB] are pushing back using the Federal Reserve, what we are seeing is the same thing we see with the judicial branch. Sometimes the people must see it. Trump is building parallel economy and now he wants the Genius act passed so cryptos can support the currency. The transition away from the [CB] has begun, gold will be last. The [DS] has been stripped of funding, intelligence and their terrorist army. The [DS] has been weakened beyond belief and the D's are hanging on by a thread. Iran contacted Trump and within the next two weeks we will see if the [DS] surrenders or they are going to fight. Trump has now messaged that the patriots have taken control by raising the flag at the White House. We are witnessing the cleanup operation.   Economy https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/1935402446848680019 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/BasedMikeLee/status/1935400301973897410   https://twitter.com/SecScottBessent/status/1935404649718157691  to establishing the United States as a hub for digital asset innovation, and the GENIUS Act moves us one step closer to that goal.  (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins of 2025), a bill passed by the U.S. Senate with a 68-30 vote on June 17, 2025. This legislation establishes the first federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies pegged to assets like the U.S. dollar to maintain a stable value. The bill aims to:  It mandates that stablecoins be fully backed by liquid assets (e.g., U.S. dollars or Treasury bills), requires issuers to hold proper licenses, enforces anti-money laundering checks, and demands monthly reserve disclosures for transparency.    Supporters, including Trump, argue it positions the U.S. as a global leader in digital assets by fostering innovation, protecting consumers, and maintaining the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the digital economy. The bill is seen as a step toward integrating stablecoins into mainstream finance, potentially lowering transaction costs and enabling instant payments.  Advocates claim it could unlock significant economic benefits, such as reducing government borrowing costs, attracting investment, and growing the stablecoin market (projected to reach $3.7-$4 trillion). It's also expected to drive demand for U.S. Treasuries and onboard millions into the dollar-based digital economy. Trump's urgency for the House to pass a “clean” version—without amendments—stems from concerns that changes could delay the process, as any modifications would require Senate reconciliation. He's pushing for swift action to sign it into law before the August 2025 recess, aligning with his broader vision of making the U.S. a crypto hub. He is saving Gold for last 2619 Dec 12, 2018 7:01:15 PM EST Q !!mG7VJxZNCI ID: 089200 No. 4281049  Dec 12, 2018 6:57:57 PM EST Anonymous ID: 376ff2 No. 4280876  >>4280189 Q: Do we have the GOLD? >>4280876 Yes. GOLD shall destroy FED Q Political/Rights https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1935688135758803183

Last week, the U.S. Treasury held an auction for 30-year bonds. Some were worried no one would show up to buy these things! That didn't happen, but the 'long bond' isn't exactly thriving at the moment. Today on the show, we look back at why we have such a long maturity bond and why it might be a good idea to start paying attention to it going forward.Related episodes:Bond market nightmares (Apple / Spotify)Bond vigilantes. Who they are, what they want, and how you'll know they're coming (Apple / Spotify)Trying to solve the mystery of big bond yields (Apple / Spotify)For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy