Public holiday of various countries to commemorate liberation from another country
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9 episodes with Liberation Day
4 episodes with Liberation Day
4 episodes with Liberation Day
8 episodes with Liberation Day
6 episodes with Liberation Day
3 episodes with Liberation Day
2 episodes with Liberation Day
3 episodes with Liberation Day
2 episodes with Liberation Day
On this November 14 episode we examine a market that is drifting without a single unifying negative narrative yet is steadily accumulating reasons for concern. High yield spreads are widening, and option adjusted spreads on CCC rated debt never returned to their pre Liberation Day lows. Creditors, it seems, have been pricing in greater risk for some time, and the recent rise in spreads only reinforces that view.We note as well that lending to non bank financial institutions has surged by roughly fifty percent since the start of the year, much of which we suspect has flowed to private credit firms that have expanded rapidly during this cycle. The broader backdrop is no more comforting. OpenAI has requested government assistance, car loan delinquencies have reached a record high, Bitcoin has suffered fresh declines, and the economic uncertainty index remains elevated.Taken together the picture is not one of outright crisis, but of mounting stresses in corners of the financial system that investors can no longer ignore.
The Nasdaq rallied as much as 2% after the open before reversing to finish the session -2%. That's the highest daily trading range since April's “Liberation Day”. Nvidia did an even bigger swing and finished down -3%. The VIX jumped to as high as 28 at one point. Why the tizz? No one can put a finger on a singular cause. The jobs number looks the obvious culprit. The US added more jobs than expected, and that makes rate cuts less likely. SPI futures down 142 points. The ASX set to open lower. WTC AGM HEADLINES US posts solid job growth in September, but unemployment rate risesASX to dive, volatility spike triggers Wall St reversal – AFRSpanish court orders Meta to pay $550 million to digital media companiesAI borrowing binge prompts investors to back away from corporate bondsFed officials eye financial stability as they debate next rate moveWant to invest with Marcus Today? Our MT20 portfolio is designed for investors seeking exposure to our strategy while we do the hard work for you.If you're looking for personal financial advice, our friends at Clime Investment Management can help. Their team of licensed advisers operates across most states, offering tailored financial planning services. Why not sign up for a free trial? Gain access to expert insights, research, and analysis to become a better investor.
ABOUT SCOTT JENNINGS AND A REVOLUTION OF COMMON SENSEMore than a play-by-play of executive orders and media showdowns, Jennings's book provides a sharp, surprising look at how Trump moved fast, broke norms, and reframed the political debate around a single question: What makes sense? His combination of sharp political acumen and unmatched access makes A REVOLUTION OF COMMON SENSE essential reading for anyone wanting to understand the significance of the Trump presidency.An unprecedented inside look at how President Donald Trump has re-taken Washington by storm in his historic second term, written with the participation of the President and his inner circle.From the Oval Office to Air Force One, and from his unique perch as the most popular conservative commentator at CNN, Jennings provides a revelatory look at the dramatic return of Donald Trump to the White House and his efforts to restore common sense to American government and save Western Civilization in the process.KEY THEMES AND INSIGHTS. Unprecedented Access to Power: Rare behind-the-scenes accounts and interviews with some of the most consequential figures in the administration, including President Trump, Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth, Scott Bessent, and Elon Musk. Jennings highlights their roles in shaping policies and offers unique insights into their interactions and decision-making processes.. Restoring Common Sense in Governance: What the Trump team's historic actions on immigration, tariffs, and energy independence mean for America's future.. Reform and Efficiency: The book examines efforts to streamline bureaucracy and challenge the status quo in Washington, including Elon Musk's appointment to lead DOGE, his efforts to cut government waste, and the backlash. Jennings also reports on private conversations between Trump and Musk about leveraging technology and innovation to rehaul government operations.. Trump's Foreign Policy and Economic Nationalism: Trump's unconventional diplomacy, including efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and his focus on reshaping global trade through policies like the "Liberation Day" tariffs.. Putting Readers In The Room: Jennings provides an insider's look at a visit to the Oval Office and a trip on Air Force One, where President Trump discusses policy priorities and strategy with his advisors, offering a glimpse into his leadership style.. The Media's Role in Politics: Jennings' front-line perspective on the cultural and political battles playing out on national television.. America's Future: How Trump's policies and vision are shaping the nation amid shifting global dynamics, and how his second term is reshaping American leadership at home and abroad amid evolving geopolitical challenges.SCOTT JENNINGS BIOIf you have social media, chances are you've seen Scott Jennings in your feed battling four or five liberals at a time in one of his many viral clips. Dubbed "the black sheep of CNN" by The Daily Mail and "Lonely Scott" by Bill Maher, Scott has become one of the most popular conservative commentators in America by delivering humorous, sharp, and well-sourced commentary on American politics and the Trump Presidency. His battles on NewsNight with Abby and other CNN shows have made him a hero of the American right, and since the 2024 election clips of Scott's CNN appearances have defined the Republican zeitgeist like no other pundit. Scott is Senior Political Contributor for CNN, appearing across the network's programs and is a staple of big event coverage. He's a native of Kentucky, where he resides with his family, chickens, and dogs. He's a Founding Partner of RunSwitch Public Relations, a graduate of the University of Louisville, and a 25+ year veteran of Republican politics. His long experience in political communications and strategy makes him a trusted confidante of Republicans across the country and a popular columnist for publications like The Daily Mail and the Los Angeles Times.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/i-am-refocused-radio--2671113/support.Thank you for tuning in to I Am Refocused Radio. For more inspiring conversations, visit IAmRefocusedRadio.com and stay connected with our community.Don't miss new episodes—subscribe now at YouTube.com/@RefocusedRadioThank you for your time.
Today's Headlines: Trump did a full-speed-reverse on Sunday night, suddenly telling House Republicans to go ahead and vote for releasing the Epstein files—after spending months trying to stop exactly that. By Monday he was even claiming he'd sign a bill to release them, adding the very believable disclaimer: “but don't talk about it too much.” To change the subject, he floated a new promise: $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks for middle-income Americans next year—right around the midterms. Nothing says “stop asking about sexual misconduct” quite like a surprise government check. Meanwhile, FBI Director Kash Patel's country singer girlfriend has been assigned her own FBI security detail—yes, on your dime—which is unusual even by this administration's standards. Airports should be mostly back to normal this week now that FAA restrictions are lifted with the end of the shutdown. At FEMA, acting director David Richardson resigned after a rough seven months and a disastrously mishandled Texas flood response. Karen Evans, FEMA's current chief of staff, will take over. Markets took a nosedive, with the major indexes seeing their worst day since Liberation Day. The AI bubble might finally be bursting, especially after new filings showed Peter Thiel's fund and SoftBank both dumped their Nvidia stakes. Finally, a new mental health study found that social media creators are burning out at alarming rates—1 in 10 have had suicidal thoughts tied directly to their work, two-thirds say their self-worth drops when posts underperform, and nearly 70% say their income is totally unpredictable. The Internet economy is thriving; its workers are not. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: Politico: Trump does Epstein U-turn as House Republicans prepare to spurn him Axios: Trump says he would sign law to release Epstein documents Axios: Trump promises $2,000 tariff checks by mid-2026 Forbes: FBI Director Patel's Girlfriend Has FBI Security Detail, Report Says NBC: FAA has lifted emergency flight reductions used to ease staffing pressure during government shutdown WSJ: FEMA Chief David Richardson Resigns WSJ: Market Rout Intensifies, Sweeping Up Everything From Tech to Crypto to Gold Reuters: Peter Thiel's fund offloaded Nvidia stake in third quarter, filing shows Fast Company: Creators are suffering from a mental health crisis, new study shows Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Yesterday we saw another tough day in the markets across the board, continuing trends we have seen emerging so far this month. Starting in the US, it was another day of sliding for all 3 major indexes – The Dow Jones lost 1.07%, the Nasdaq lost 1.2%, while the S&P500 slid 0.8%, to mark its biggest losing streak since August. The pullback comes as 2 critical results come out later this week – Nvidia's Q3 earnings, and the US September jobs report – demonstrating how overevaluation of the tech sector, and the more general state of the US economy remain the most important issues for investors at the moment. We saw similar results across Europe, with major declines across the major markets. The Stoxx600, French CAC, German DAX and British FTSE all slid more than 1% in overnight trade. Meanwhile in Asia, losses were more pronounced, as Hong Kong's Hang Seng slid 1.7%, while the Japanese Nikkei recorded a 3.22% decline. And back home in Australia it was no different, as the ASX 200 fell just under 2% to record its second worst individual day of 2025, only behind Trump's Liberation Day in April when sweeping tariffs were announced. All 11 key sectors posted losses, with materials and technology hit the hardest – the latter with a nearly 6% loss on the day. TechnologyOne (ASX:TNE), dragged down the technology sector the most, plummeting 17% after reporting revenue which fell short off expectations, and declining to provide FY26 guidance. In materials, Northern Star (ASX:NST) closed trading down 5.6%, as expectations of a US rate cut continue to shrink. What to watch today:Looking ahead to today's trading, the ASX is set to extend yesterday's losses, with the SPI futures predicting a 0.2% drop at the open. In commodities, Crude Oil is trading 1.2% higher at 60.6USD per barrel, as US sanctions placed on Russia in October are beginning to curb their export volumes. In precious metals, Gold is trading 0.5% higher at 4066USD per ounce, while Silver is up 1% at 50.7USD per ounce. And Iron ore is trading nearly flat at 104USD per tonne. Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has maintained its Buy rating on testing, inspection and certification company ALS (ASX:ALQ), and raised its target price by 10% to $25 per share, after the company reported results that beat forecast, and upgraded its FY2026 guidance. And Trading Central have identified a bearish signal on Westpac (ASX:WBC), indicating that the price may fall from the close of $37.87 per share, to the range of $34.60 to $35.20 per share over a period of 35 days, according to the standard principles of technical analysis.
In Episode 449 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chase Taylor, head of research at Bulwark Capital Management and founder of Pinecone Macro Research about investment opportunities around the buildout of the new "electric stack" and the AI CapEx Boom that relies on them. Chase and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring his methodology, how he extracts signals from noise, and why a multidisciplinary approach to investing is especially important during periods of disruptive sociopolitical and technological change like the kind we are experiencing today. They then apply these ideas to two important technological trends underway in the global economy: (1) the transformation of the so-called "electric stack" or electro-industrial stack and (2) the AI CapEx Boom that relies on it. They begin with a deep-dive exploration of the dramatic cost declines happening across the entire electric stack, beginning with the addition of new sources of energy, advancements in battery technology for storage, the use of magnets and motors that turn electricity into mechanical motion, power electronics that shape it into the precise force needed by today's technologies, and the embedded compute that orchestrates and decides how and when to put that force into action. They discuss the sources of China's dominance in this industry, the horizontal complementarities in its manufacturing ecosystems, the advantages of vertical integration, and what America and Europe need to do in order to remain competitive in this new industrial ecosystem. The second hour is devoted to exploring the implications for investors of the current AI CapEx boom, how the USD might behave in a growth slowdown scenario post-Liberation Day, and what the Trump administration's military and covert action threats against Maduro's regime in Venezuela can tell us about his foreign policy and whether we are returning to a more colonial phase of domination by the American empire over the Western hemisphere. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/10/2025
Donald Trump's been all over the place with his tariffs, but the US is now bringing in billions of dollars in revenue from them.Months since the tariffs were first announced and after dire warnings from economists, how is the American economy really faring? Today, Penny Goldberg, professor of economics at Yale University, on why the US economy hasn't yet seen a major downturn and the dark clouds in the longer term outlook. Featured:Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Professor of Economics at Yale University and fmr Chief Economist at the World Bank Group
What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Katy on LinkedIn.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently26:20
Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, highlights what investors need to watch out for ahead of next year's U.S. congressional elections.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today, we're tackling a question that's top of mind after last week's off-cycle elections in New Jersey, New York, Virginia, and California: What could next year's midterm elections mean for investors, especially if Democrats take control of Congress?It's Friday, Nov 14th at 10:30am in New York.In last week's elections, Democrats outperformed expectations. In California, a new redistricting measure could flip several house seats; and in New Jersey and Virginia Democrat candidates, won with meaningfully higher margins than polls suggested was likely. As such prediction markets now give Democrats a roughly 70 percent chance of winning the House next year.But before we jump to conclusions, let's pump the brakes. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst. We'll be doing plenty of that. But we think it's too early to strategize around it. Why? First, a lot can change—both in terms of likely outcomes and the issues driving the electorate. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. Second, even if Democrats take control of the House, it may not change the trajectory of the policies that matter most to market pricing. In our view, Republicans already achieved their main legislative goals through the tax and fiscal bill earlier this year. The other market-moving policy shifts this year—think tariffs and regulatory changes—have come through executive action, not legislation. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. Meanwhile, the plausible Republican legislative agenda—like further tax cuts—would face steep hurdles. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets. Moderates, for their part, are unlikely to tolerate deeper cuts, especially after the contentious debate over Medicaid in the OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). So, what could change this view? If we're wrong, it's likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. How does this all connect to markets? For U.S. equities, the current policy mix—industrial incentives, tax cuts, and AI-driven capex—has supported risk assets and driven opportunities in sectors like technology and manufacturing. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. There doesn't appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We'll keep you updated as the story unfolds.
Bitcoin mining stock prices were aflame on Thursday, while Bitdeer was putting out fires of its own. Subscribe to the Blockspace newsletter for market-making news as it hits the wire! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Today, Will, Colin, and Matt don their butchers' aprons to dissect Thursday's market carnage, with some bitcoin miners down double digits on the day. We cover Bitdeer's electrical fire at a facility in Ohio, discuss Lava's controversial custody model changes, Stone Ridge/Nydig's oil and gas expansion, and for this week's cry corner, Jim Cramer yells at CoreWeave's CEO. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com **Notes:** • Mining stocks down 5-10% across the board today • Bitdeer down 46% on five-day chart • $20B wiped from mining market cap since October • Riot peaked at $70, started Liberation Day at $2 • Bitdeer fire destroyed two mining units in Ohio • 650B annual revenue by 2029 needed for 10% AI return Timestamps: 00:00 Start 04:19 Market crashing 08:35 Difficulty Report by Luxor 13:11 Bitdeer mining farm in Ohio burning 23:02 Lava goes centralized 31:26 Auradine's new unit announced 38:59 What's NYDIG up to? 42:23 Cry Corner: CORZ delay
Subscribe to the Blockspace newsletter for market-making news as it hits the wire! Welcome back to The Mining Pod! Today, Will, Colin, and Matt don their butchers' aprons to dissect Thursday's market carnage, with some bitcoin miners down double digits on the day. We cover Bitdeer's electrical fire at a facility in Ohio, discuss Lava's controversial custody model changes, Stone Ridge/Nydig's oil and gas expansion, and for this week's cry corner, Jim Cramer yells at CoreWeave's CEO. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com **Notes:** • Mining stocks down 5-10% across the board today • Bitdeer down 46% on five-day chart • $20B wiped from mining market cap since October • Riot peaked at $70, started Liberation Day at $2 • Bitdeer fire destroyed two mining units in Ohio • 650B annual revenue by 2029 needed for 10% AI return Timestamps: 00:00 Start 04:19 Market crashing 08:35 Difficulty Report by Luxor 13:11 Bitdeer mining farm in Ohio burning 23:02 Lava goes centralized 31:26 Auradine's new unit announced 38:59 What's NYDIG up to? 42:23 Cry Corner: CORZ delay
(The Center Square) – President Donald Trump has again floated the idea of sending Americans $2,000 from tariff revenue, but a new analysis suggests the import taxes won't bring in enough money to cover the proposed checks. Trump's tariff rebate suggestion comes a week after the Supreme Court sharply questioned his authority to impose tariffs under a 1977 law that he has used to justify the bulk of the tariffs announced on April 2, which he dubbed "Liberation Day" for U.S. trade. The cases challenging Trump's tariff authority remain pending before the nation's highest court, but even if the revenue source were not in question, Trump could face challenges in getting the checks out to taxpayers. Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxxRead more: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_88d156dd-cb20-493d-9b9f-ded4e379a03f.html Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
For years, Mackeys Ferry Sawmill in North Carolina relied on exporting its goods to China and Vietnam after a dip in domestic demand for high-quality hardwood. But President Donald Trump’s trade war with China dealt a blow that the mill’s owners say they couldn’t come back from. In July, just months after the president announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, they decided to shut it down. On today’s Big Take podcast, Bloomberg economics reporter Shawn Donnan goes to the “Old North State” to understand the ripple effect of tariffs on one of the oldest industries in America and how the mill’s owner feels about Trump and his policies, one year after voting for him in the ballot booth. Listen more: The Most Worrying — and Reassuring — Signals in the US EconomySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Tony Zhang with OptionsPlay believes Nvidia (NVDA) is trading at its best forward P/E since Liberation Day. He offers an example options trade and makes the case for long-term investors to buy into the stock as it lingers in correction territory. Tony turns to a much different industry through his trade in FedEx (FDX), but he makes a similar case that the stock is at a discount to its peers.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
NICO HARRISON IS GONE! Danny celebrates Liberation Day for the Mavericks. The guys recap Eagles/Packers and a weekend of uneventful football. Daron Payne throwing haymakers, fantasy trades, pick'ems, WWE, WNBA, and more! 00:00 - Intro 5:20 - Fantasy Chatter 26:00 - Around the NFL 55:20 - NFL Pick'ems 1:08:11 - College Football Pick'ems 1:13:47 - NBA 1:29:28 - WWE 1:40:45 - Signoff Don't forget to submit your questions to the guys at speakonitpod14@gmail.com so they can answer them during the next show! Follow the squad!! @losdeemix @dannyocean41 @goingfor2live @speakonit_pod (Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram)
Co robisz, gdy tracisz wszystko w wieku 2 lat? Gdy ojczyzna wyrzuca cię jak śmiecia? Gdy dorastasz w obozie dla uchodźców, gdzie nikt nie wierzy w twoją przyszłość?Większość się poddaje. Paul Kagame zdecydował się walczyć.Ta historia nie jest czarno-biała.To opowieść o człowieku, który zatrzymał jedno z największych ludobójstw w historii – i zbudował z popiołów kraj, który dzisiaj jest nazywany „singapurskim cudem Afryki”.Ale jaką zapłacił cenę? I czy cel usprawiedliwia środki?W tym odcinku odkryjesz:Jak stoicka dyscyplina może Cię podnieść z najgłębszego dnaMechanizm „zimnej kalkulacji”, który działa w kryzysie lepiej niż emocjeDlaczego prawdziwa siła to NIE agresja, ale kontrolaJak przekuć traumę w misję życiowąTo brutalna lekcja o tym, co możliwe, gdy odmówisz pogodzenia się z losem.Dla kogo ten odcinek?Dla wszystkich, którzy czują, że utknęli. Którzy wiedzą, że zasługują na więcej, ale nie wiedzą jak się odbudować po życiowym ciosie.
The Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices have been treating the Trump administration with such extreme deference that we were honestly a little flummoxed listening to this week's arguments over his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Shockingly, during Wednesday's arguments in Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, it seemed like the justices were in fact, concerned with presidential overreach. But was this a true bridge-too-far-moment, or were they more concerned about their own pocketbooks? This week, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern discussed the arguments with Marc Busch, the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Busch is an expert on international trade policy and law, and signed onto an amicus brief on behalf of trade scholars explaining the history and context of IEEPA. Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices have been treating the Trump administration with such extreme deference that we were honestly a little flummoxed listening to this week's arguments over his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Shockingly, during Wednesday's arguments in Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, it seemed like the justices were in fact, concerned with presidential overreach. But was this a true bridge-too-far-moment, or were they more concerned about their own pocketbooks? This week, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern discussed the arguments with Marc Busch, the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Busch is an expert on international trade policy and law, and signed onto an amicus brief on behalf of trade scholars explaining the history and context of IEEPA. Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices have been treating the Trump administration with such extreme deference that we were honestly a little flummoxed listening to this week's arguments over his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Shockingly, during Wednesday's arguments in Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, it seemed like the justices were in fact, concerned with presidential overreach. But was this a true bridge-too-far-moment, or were they more concerned about their own pocketbooks? This week, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern discussed the arguments with Marc Busch, the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Busch is an expert on international trade policy and law, and signed onto an amicus brief on behalf of trade scholars explaining the history and context of IEEPA. Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It was a “risk-off” week for global markets, with most indices slipping as investors became more nervous about extended valuations across parts of the US market. The local NZX 50 bucked the global trend with a small rise, while the NZ dollar continued to drift lower. It fell to US$0.56 against the greenback, the lowest since just after Liberation Day in April. The currency is also the weakest since 2015 against the British pound, the lowest since 2013 against the Australian dollar and at levels we haven't seen since 2009 against the euro!
Het is hem gelukt. Elon Musk heeft zijn bonus van 1000 miljard dollar (van een biljoen) er doorheen gedrukt. Aandeelhouders van Tesla gingen massaal akkoord: 75 procent stemt voor. Als hij de komende 10 jaar alle doelstellingen haalt, krijgt hij die beloning. Deze aflevering hoor je of dat eigenlijk wel slim is van die aandeelhouders. Aandeelhouders die misschien ook niet veel anders konden voor voor stemmen, want ze werden gedwongen door de directie. Gaan meer beursbedrijven dit doen?Nu we het toch over een Amerikaans aandeel hebben, laten we het ook over andere Amerikaanse aandelen hebben. Die zijn (te wijten aan Donald Trump) een stukje minder geliefd. Sinds Liberation Day zijn buitenlandse beleggers uitgestapt en altijd nog niet terug. Dan is het tijd voor een follow-up. Een paar dagen geleden deed softwarebedrijf Bird een poging om CM.com over te nemen. 166 miljoen euro boden ze ervoor. Maar dat bod wordt keihard afgewezen. Verder hebben we het over de Chinese export. Die is onverwachts toch ingestort. Daarover gesproken: het aandeel van Duolingo is ook ingestort. Het taalbedrijf heeft de ergste beursdag achter de rug. Deze aflevering kijken we ook naar andere bedrijven die deze week werden afgestraft voor slechte cijfers. Zijn beleggers niet veel te streng?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Het is hem gelukt. Elon Musk heeft zijn bonus van 1000 miljard dollar (van een biljoen) er doorheen gedrukt. Aandeelhouders van Tesla gingen massaal akkoord: 75 procent stemt voor. Als hij de komende 10 jaar alle doelstellingen haalt, krijgt hij die beloning. Deze aflevering hoor je of dat eigenlijk wel slim is van die aandeelhouders. Aandeelhouders die misschien ook niet veel anders konden voor voor stemmen, want ze werden gedwongen door de directie. Gaan meer beursbedrijven dit doen?Nu we het toch over een Amerikaans aandeel hebben, laten we het ook over andere Amerikaanse aandelen hebben. Die zijn (te wijten aan Donald Trump) een stukje minder geliefd. Sinds Liberation Day zijn buitenlandse beleggers uitgestapt en altijd nog niet terug. Dan is het tijd voor een follow-up. Een paar dagen geleden deed softwarebedrijf Bird een poging om CM.com over te nemen. 166 miljoen euro boden ze ervoor. Maar dat bod wordt keihard afgewezen. Verder hebben we het over de Chinese export. Die is onverwachts toch ingestort. Daarover gesproken: het aandeel van Duolingo is ook ingestort. Het taalbedrijf heeft de ergste beursdag achter de rug. Deze aflevering kijken we ook naar andere bedrijven die deze week werden afgestraft voor slechte cijfers. Zijn beleggers niet veel te streng?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Six months on from “Liberation Day” and with tariffs still six times higher than at the start of the year, how has the global economy responded and what happens next? Initially billed as a way to rebuild supply chains, bring manufacturing back onshore, and reduce US dependence on imports, the reality has proven more complex. In this episode of The Quick Take, we speak to Anais Caldwell-Jones (Principal at LCP and member of our macroeconomic team) to explore how other major economies have responded to US tariffs, what is the impact on the macroeconomic picture, the market reaction so far, and what investors should be on the lookout in the near future.
The Supreme Court Justices are now hearing oral arguments on the legality of President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on dozens of countries, including China, Mexico and Canada. What could the ruling mean for trade and the economy? Plus, Holly shares insight on the developing news of a UPS plane crash in Louisville.
Tariffs are getting their day in court.On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in two cases about the legality of President Donald Trump's favorite policy tool.Shortly after he took office, Trump started signing executive orders imposing tariffs on America's trading partners. He declared April 2 “Liberation Day,” and enacted a broad package of import duties from Canada to China and way beyond, upending U.S. economic policy and reshaping global trade.He did it all without input from Congress. And that might, or might not, have violated presidential power under the Constitution.So, are the Trump administration's tariffs legal?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence.
Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence.
SHOW 11-3-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1895 TRINIDAD THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT VENEZUELA. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations. 915-930 Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations. 930-945 Post-Ceasefire Gaza Hostages and Hezbollah Regeneration in Lebanon. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how following the Gaza ceasefire, the process of returning remains of slain hostages remains delayed, which Daoud suggests Hamas uses as leverage to prevent Israel from resuming conflict and entrenching a "post-war mentality." Experts note that Hezbollah is actively regenerating its military capabilities in Lebanon, bypassing disarmament efforts. Despite continuous, targeted Israeli strikes against Hezbollah personnel, there is minimal international condemnation because the organization maintains overwhelming Shiite support and the Lebanese government fails to enforce disarmament. Plans for an international security force in Gaza remain vague. 945-1000 Post-Ceasefire Gaza Hostages and Hezbollah Regeneration in Lebanon. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how following the Gaza ceasefire, the process of returning remains of slain hostages remains delayed, which Daoud suggests Hamas uses as leverage to prevent Israel from resuming conflict and entrenching a "post-war mentality." Experts note that Hezbollah is actively regenerating its military capabilities in Lebanon, bypassing disarmament efforts. Despite continuous, targeted Israeli strikes against Hezbollah personnel, there is minimal international condemnation because the organization maintains overwhelming Shiite support and the Lebanese government fails to enforce disarmament. Plans for an international security force in Gaza remain vague. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 NYC Election, Famine Propaganda, and Foreign Influence on Campus. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses the New York City mayoral election, focusing on the populist rise of candidate Zelldin Maamoun, whose anti-Israel stance and lack of economic knowledge threaten the city's large Israeli-founded tech sector. He reveals that a World Health Organization official admitted that promoting "famine" in Gaza was a deliberate communications and political pressure strategy, despite adequate food supply. Hoenlein confirms that Hezbollah is rearming and refashioning ordnance in Lebanon, forcing Israel's hand. University leaders have begun acknowledging that campus unrest was largely foreign-driven, specifically citing Iran. Indonesia is noted as a potential key player in future Abraham Accords. 1015-1030 NYC Election, Famine Propaganda, and Foreign Influence on Campus. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses the New York City mayoral election, focusing on the populist rise of candidate Zelldin Maamoun, whose anti-Israel stance and lack of economic knowledge threaten the city's large Israeli-founded tech sector. He reveals that a World Health Organization official admitted that promoting "famine" in Gaza was a deliberate communications and political pressure strategy, despite adequate food supply. Hoenlein confirms that Hezbollah is rearming and refashioning ordnance in Lebanon, forcing Israel's hand. University leaders have begun acknowledging that campus unrest was largely foreign-driven, specifically citing Iran. Indonesia is noted as a potential key player in future Abraham Accords. 1030-1045 US Military Buildup Near Venezuela and Opposition Support for Action. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss the unprecedented US military buildup at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, interpreted as preparations for action against Venezuela. Peña Esclusa clarifies that the true Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado (who won 93% of the primary vote), supports US action against the Maduro drug cartel. Araújo asserts that this is viewed regionally as a "crusade against organized crime," not an invasion, and would be welcomed by people tired of instability. This credible threat is already pressuring Venezuelan military officials to negotiate Maduro's exiIT. 1045-1100 US Military Buildup Near Venezuela and Opposition Support for Action. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss the unprecedented US military buildup at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, interpreted as preparations for action against Venezuela. Peña Esclusa clarifies that the true Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado (who won 93% of the primary vote), supports US action against the Maduro drug cartel. Araújo asserts that this is viewed regionally as a "crusade against organized crime," not an invasion, and would be welcomed by people tired of instability. This credible threat is already pressuring Venezuelan military officials to negotiate Maduro's exiIT.THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1115-1130 Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1130-1145 Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence. 1145-1200 Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 AI Revolution, Cloud Growth, and the Virtual Cell. Brandon Weichert reports on how AI is driving massive growth in cloud computing, exemplified by Amazon's surging shares and AWS growth, reaching paces "we haven't seen since 2022." Weichert dismisses fears of an "AI crash" as fear-mongering rooted in ignorance and past market bubbles, arguing that AI is sparking new sectors and enhancing productivity across industries. He details the cutting-edge application of AI in creating a "virtual cell"—computer models that simulate cell functions to speed up drug discovery, understand disease mechanisms, and inform scientific investigation. 1215-1230 Iran's Contradictory Nuclear Signals and Proxy Support. Jonathan Schanzer and Bill Roggio discuss how Iran is sending contradictory messages regarding its nuclear enrichment program and negotiations, with President Pezeshkian ("the dove") threatening to restart enrichment. Schanzer explains that "reformists" like Pezeshkian serve as a calculated front to signal openness while building leverage for future talks. Iran appears willing to risk future strikes, believing it can absorb them. However, Iran's ability to significantly rebuild its air defenses is complicated by the risk of UN snapback sanctions potentially deterring Russia and China from supplying advanced systems. Sanctions relief remains a key factor in Iran's proxy support. 1230-1245 UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy. 1245-100 AM UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy.
The Trump administration faces a Supreme Court challenge on Wednesday over its use of tariffs, an economic policy that has upended global trade.This case, which has been described by the President in epic terms, questions the legality of Trump's signature economic policy - and poses one of the biggest existential threats to his second term so far. In today's episode, we speak to small business owners across the US, and to BBC business reporter Natalie Sherman, who will be at the Supreme Court this week.Producers: Hannah Moore and Valerio EspositoExecutive producer: James ShieldMix: Travis EvansSenior news editor: China CollinsImage: US President Trump unveils new tariffs on so-called Liberation Day. Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
PREVIEW. The Continuing Power of Presidential Tariffs. Alan Tonelson discusses the Supreme Court's pending oral arguments concerning the president's "Liberation Day tariffs." Tonelson argues the tariffs are likely to stay, and presidential power will continue. Even if the court strikes down the tariffs under the 1977 statute, the president possesses many other established tariffing authorities under US trade law. Retry
On today's podcast:1) President Trump sat down with CBS' 60 Minutes - as heard on Bloomberg Radio - for a long-ranging discussion on the government shutdown, tariffs, and border security. Trump says immigration raids “haven’t gone far enough” despite videos showing physical confrontations among federal agents, immigrants and protesters. Trump also said that he could use the Insurrection Act to use professional military, instead of the National Guard, to US cities “if I wanted to.” The president’s comments come after his administration expanded a federal program that deputizes local police to enforce immigration laws, signing up nearly 16,000 officers across 40 states as part of an effort to boost deportations, according to data reviewed by Bloomberg News. 2) President Trump said he would skip attending the Supreme Court hearing this week over the legality of his worldwide tariffs regime. The court is scheduled on Wednesday to hear Trump’s appeal of a lower court’s ruling that many of his “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded the president’s emergency power to regulate imports. Trump had said he felt an “obligation” to watch in person as the Supreme Court weighed his power to impose tariffs. If he had attended, he would have been the first sitting president in US history to attend oral arguments at the high court.3) The summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump was a breakthrough in bilateral relationship where the Asian giant was treated as an “equal partner” of the US, according to David Daokui Li, a regular policy adviser to Beijing. Speaking to Bloomberg TV on Monday, Li described a sense of enthusiasm among his peers in Beijing following the leaders’ meeting in South Korea last week. The exchange led to a one-year trade truce, although it didn’t address core differences between the world’s two largest economies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Europe's Energy Liberation: US Shale Ending Russian Gas Leverage Michael Bernstam with John BatchelorBatchelor highlights the irony that Russia's perceived energy leverage over Europe is dissolving, a dependence once so great that Europeans were said not to be able to turn the lights on without Russian energy. Bernstam declares that natural gas will now be in abundance, ensuring that Russia "never again will there be leverage over Europe." This shift signifies "Liberation Day for natural gas in Europe." The European Union's 19th package of sanctions is scheduled to phase out Russian pipeline gas and Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) completely by the end of 2027, with the majority phased out by the middle of 2026. The United States shale revolution is crucial, producing approximately 270 billion cubic meters of natural gas for export to Europe via established terminals, freeing Europe from Russian energy dependence.
Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular Fringe Finance substack, warns we're in "completely off the rails, unprecedented territory" with the Fed trapped between printing money to save markets or allowing deflationary debt defaults. He predicts the Fed will ultimately implement yield curve control to bail out the bond market, pushing America down an emerging market path negative for the dollar—which gold's historic rally is already pricing in. Irons dismisses gold meme stock concerns since central banks are the primary buyers, and argues government spending is politically impossible to cut. Drawing from his background as anonymous short seller "Quoth The Raven," he explains why short sellers face unprecedented challenges as Fed liquidity creates massive distortions—$2 trillion in worthless crypto finds bids while fundamentally sound shorts get squeezed. He believes during April's Liberation Day, markets were "days away from a bond market crisis" when stocks and bonds unusually sold off together. Irons warns a sharp deleveraging event is inevitable though timing is uncertain, offering blunt advice: "Don't listen to anybody, including me" and avoid certainty, because we've never been here before and things can change profoundly overnight.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: X: https://x.com/QTRResearchSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction & welcome0:36 - Guest introduction: Chris Irons "Quoth The Raven"1:14 - Big picture macro view: unprecedented territory2:19 - Gold's rally & stock market highs2:54 - The 100-year inflationary cycle4:35 - Fed's dual mandate tension5:34 - Upcoming Fed meeting & rate cuts8:00 - Young generation following monetary policy10:00 - Gold16:00 - The debasement trade going mainstream18:40 - Fiscal picture23:00 - Gold, feels we are on the precipice of a big change28:00 - Short selling 43:00 - The ultimate bubble 45:00 - Closing
As the S&P 500 continues to rally, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses three factors that could lead to a stock market correction in the near term.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why we are still in a new bull market even if a correction is likely in the near term. It's Monday, October 20th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. I continue to believe the sharp selloff in April following Liberation Day marked the trough of what was effectively a three-year rolling recession in the U.S. economy. We have written extensively about this view; but it still remains very much out of consensus. Since 2022 most sectors of the private economy have gone through their own individual recession but at different times. The final trough in the rate of change in economic activity came in April around the tariff announcements which came as a surprise to almost everyone, at least in terms of the magnitude and scope. In short, Liberation Day was really capitulation day on the last piece of bad news for the economic cycle which then bottomed. Stocks seem to agree which is why they have rallied in a straight line since then, much like they do after the trough in any economic cycle. The other proof we have for this claim is the v-shaped recovery in earnings revision breadth, something we have discussed for many months in our written research and on this podcast. Based on our numerous conversations with investors, this view remains very unpopular. Instead, most believe the economy and earnings growth for next year are at risk of being lower rather than higher than expected, as I do. Core to my view is that we are now firmly in an inflationary regime since COVID and the implementation of helicopter money to get us out of that crisis. The government has to run it hot to get us out of the massive debt and deficit problem created over the past 20 years. The end result is that investors need to expect hotter but shorter cycles rather than the elongated 10-year cycles we experienced between 1980-2020 when inflation was falling. That means two-year up cycles followed by one-year down cycles for U.S. equity markets, which is exactly what's happened since 2020. We are now in the midst of a new up cycle that began in April. The key thing to understand during this new regime is that inflation is not bad for stocks so long as it's accelerating and the Fed is on the sidelines or easing like in 2020-21, 2023 and now today. Higher inflation means higher earnings growth which is why price earnings multiples are high today. With inflation likely to accelerate next year, stocks are anticipating better earnings growth. In other words, stocks are a hedge against inflation. In fact, relative to gold, high quality stocks may offer a cheaper inflation hedge at this point given their dramatic underperformance to precious metals year-to-date and since 2021. Eventually, inflation will be a problem again for stocks like in 2022 when the Fed has to react by tightening policy, but that's a story for another day. Having said all this, the equity markets are a bit frothy at the moment and so a 10-15 percent correction in the S&P 500 is not only possible but would be normal at this stage of a new bull market. I see three primary reasons for why we could get that in the near term. First, China-U.S. trade relations have recently escalated again, and we are slowly marching toward a November 1st deadline for tariffs on China to go back to Liberation Day levels. While most investors don't want to get sucked into selling at the worst possible time like they did in April, this risk is real and will weigh on stocks if we don't see evidence of a de-escalation in the next few weeks. Second, funding markets have exhibited some signs of increased stress lately. This is likely due to the ongoing quantitative tightening program by the Fed which is draining bank reserves. Should these stresses increase, it could spill over into equities. Third, our earnings revision breadth metric is rolling over now after its historic rise since April. This could continue into earnings season as it's normal to see some retracement from such a high level and tariffs start to flow through from inventories to the income statement. Trade tensions might also weigh on company guidance in the short term. Bottom line, I believe a new bull market began in April with a new rolling economic and earnings recovery that is now quite nascent. However, even new bull markets have corrections along the way, and certain conditions argue we are at risk for the first tradable one since April. Keep your powder dry in the near term for what should be a great buying opportunity, if it arrives. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpacks how China's announced rare earth export controls and signals of sweeping U.S. tariffs could impact global supply chains, markets and economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Today I'll talk about a development keeping markets and investors on alert: a re-escalation of U.S. China trade tensions. It's Friday, October 17th at 10am in New York. Since April, the U.S. and China have been in what we've been calling a very delicate detente. Remember, President Trump paused the additional reciprocal tariffs after Liberation Day. Since then, we've been consistently skeptical that the pause was durable enough to actually allow the U.S. and China to come up with a full-fledged trade agreement. But now we're equally as skeptical that the current escalation will lead to a material disruption in the bilateral relationship. So, what happened last week? China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, which are really critical for manufacturing everything from electric vehicles to defense equipment and advanced electronics. So, in response, the Trump administration on Friday announced a proposed 100 percent tariff, said to go into effect November 1st across all Chinese exports to the U.S. That date matters because that's around the same time that Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. When we think about this most recent escalation, it's pretty significant because China accounts for about 70 percent of global rare earth mining, and 90 percent of processing and refining. A lot of countries around the world – the U.S. Japan, Korea, and Germany – all rely heavily on these imports from China. And so potential new export controls mean that every economy may have to start negotiating bilaterally with China to secure supplies, which raises the risk of supply chain disruption across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Looking ahead, we're thinking about four potential scenarios for how the current U.S.-China trade tensions could play out. The most likely outcome, which is our base case, is a return to the recent status quo following a period of rhetorical escalation and likely a reset of expectations heading into this APEC meeting. That's because we think both the U.S. and China would prefer to maintain the existing equilibrium to an abrupt supply chain decoupling. That equilibrium is effectively chips for rare earths. So, the U.S. receives China's rare earths, and then in return the U.S. exports some of its chips to China. But that equilibrium doesn't necessarily mean that the temporary implementation of trade barriers like higher tariffs or more export controls are off the table. The broader trajectory we think will continue to point toward competitive confrontation, which is a bipartisan strategy that encompasses both these traditional trade tactics as well as unilateral domestic investment – either vis-a-vis direct federal spending, or the government taking more stakes in companies involved in these critical industries. So, think things like the IRA, the CHIPS Act, and other bipartisan pieces of legislation. So, in the near and medium term, expect to see these trade barriers persisting and a bipartisan push toward U.S. industrial policy, as the U.S. attempts to undergo selective de-risking from China. Our base case scenario anticipates further short-term tensions, but ultimately a limited agreement that avoids deep structural changes. We've also thought through some alternate scenarios. So, in one downside case, you could see temporary escalation past November 1st. Both sides could fully implement their proposed policies, but after doing so, come back to the status quo once the economic costs become apparent. A more severe downside scenario involves durable escalation. So, in this case, we would see both countries maintain trade barriers for an extended period. That outcome would see both the U.S. and China decide to change calculus on that equilibrium, so that no longer holds. And in that case, we could see a push toward decoupling and a significant strain on supply chains. Finally, our last scenario reflects a quick de-escalation in which heightened rhetoric actually acts as a catalyst for renewed negotiations and a potential framework agreement that could result in some tariffs, but most likely at lower levels than initially proposed. So, what does this all mean? In the base case, our economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to below 4.5 percent in the second half of 2025, with exports supported by robust non-U.S. shipments. Our equity strategists in this outcome see the volatility actually providing a dip buying opportunity, given that they see a rolling recovery that began earlier this year. However, a more durable escalation could possibly prolong China's deflation and necessitate further policy adjustments. Similarly, that outcome could negate the early cycle rolling recovery thesis here in the U.S. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Eric and Matt break down a strong third quarter that saw the S&P 500 climb 10%, leaving Liberation Day's tariff chaos behind. They explore the growing divide between wealthy asset owners feeling great and everyone else struggling with inflation, while examining why bonds are pricing in Fed rate cuts even as stocks surge. The conversation turns to the private markets boom and whether opening up private equity to retail 401(k) investors is a good idea or a disaster waiting to happen. Eric shares why AI companies are burning massive amounts of capital with unclear returns, yet may be impossible to bet against if they build a cult-like following. They note that credit markets still look healthy despite late-cycle warning signs, making this moment particularly unusual. A straightforward look at where we are in this cycle and what actually matters as we head into year-end. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:30) Economic Structures and Consumer Demand (00:04:34) Tariffs and Their Impact on the Economy (00:05:10) Travel and Leisure Sector Post-COVID (00:07:44) Bond Market and Federal Reserve Actions (00:16:34) Private Equity and Market Trends (00:22:24) Retirement Funds and 401(k) Investments (00:25:04) Concerns Over New Investment Vehicles (00:26:51) Debates on Private and Public Assets (00:30:14) Religious Investor Bases and Market Dynamics (00:31:54) AI and Its Impact on Markets (00:41:46) Social Media and Market Sentiment (00:44:04) Concluding Thoughts on Markets and Society Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
learn about the Liberation Day
Six months after Trump declared “Liberation Day,” tariff revenues are up, and major US investment pledges are rolling in. But at the same time, costs are rising, and global sourcing strategies are shifting fast. This week, the Zero100 team explores reshoring readiness, friendshoring alternatives, and the role of AI and robotics in turning volatility into opportunity, outlining the steps supply chain leaders must take to build resilience in a reshaped global market. Featuring: Chief Research Officer Kevin O'Marah, VP, Research, Geraint John, and Principal Analyst Caroline Chumakov. Breaking down Trump's tariff playbook (00:05) What the numbers really say about trade deficits and tax revenue (02:01) Moving manufacturing back to the US: Political theater or a real shift? (03:38) The roadblocks slowing a reshoring push (10:17) Non-stop negotiation: How global trade partners are reacting (15:44) Inflation, resilience, and what supply chain leaders must prepare for next (19:14) Trump's tariffs: a win or a miss? (25:01)
Global equities have had a good run since the Liberation Day jitters in April, with Japan and South Africa being standout markets. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International says markets are awaiting the next moves, but clouding the outlook has been the US government shutdown, which meant that the September jobs numbers could not be released. September inflation data could also be delayed. Meanwhile South Africa's PMI numbers are improving, which should have a positive Impact on GDP. Investec Focus Radio SA
Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/juliaLinks:https://www.merkinvestments.com/https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending
Our CIO Mike Wilson joins U.S. Equity strategist Andrew Pauker to answer frequently asked questions about their latest economic outlook, including how U.S. equities are transitioning to a new bull market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today we're going to try something a little different. I have my colleague, Andrew Pauker from the U.S. Equity Strategy Team here to discuss some of the client questions and feedback to our views. It's Monday, September 22nd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Andrew, we constantly deal with client questions on our views. More recently, the questions have been focused on our view that we've transitioned from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery in a new bull market. Secondarily, it's about the tension between the equity market's need for speed and how fast the Fed will actually cut rates. Finally, why is accelerating inflation potentially good for equities? Where do you want to start? Andrew Pauker: Mike, in my conversations with clients, the main debate seems to be around whether the labor cycle and earnings recession are behind us or in front of us. Walk us through our take here and why we think the rolling recession ended with Liberation Day and that we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. Mike Wilson: So, just to kind of level set, you know, we've had this view that – and starting in 2022 with the payback and the COVID demand. And from the pull forward – that began, what we call, a rolling recession. It started with the technology sector and consumer goods, where the demand was most extreme during the lockdowns. And then of course we've had recessions in housing, manufacturing, and other areas in commodities. Transportation. It's been very anemic growth, if any growth at all, as the economy has been sort of languishing. And what's been strong has been AI CapEx, consumer services, and government. And what we noticed in the first quarter, and we actually called for this almost a year ago. We said now what we need is a government recession as part of the finishing move. And in fact, Doge was the catalyst for that. We highlighted that back in January, but we didn't know exactly how many jobs were lost from Doge's efforts in the first quarter. But we got that data recently. And we saw an extreme spike, and it actually sort of finished the rolling recession. Even AI CapEx had a deceleration starting in the summer of 2024. Something else that we've been highlighting and now we're seeing pockets of weakness even in consumer services. So, we feel like the rolling recession has rolled through effectively the entire economy. In addition to the labor data that now is confirming – that we've had a pretty extreme reduction in jobs, and of course the revisions are furthering that. But what we saw in the private sector is also confirming our suspicions that the rolling recession's over. The number one being earnings revision breath, something we've written about extensively. And we've rarely seen this kind of a V-shaped recovery coming out of Liberation Day, which of course was the final blow to the earnings revisions lower because that made companies very negative and that fed through to earnings revisions. The other things that have happened, of course, is that Doge, you know, did not continue laying people off. And also, we saw the weaker dollar and the AI CapEx cycle bottom in April. And those have also affected kind of a more positive backdrop for earnings growth. And like I said before, this is a very rare occurrence to see this kind of a V-shape recovery and earnings revision breaths. The private economy, in fact, is finally coming out of its earnings recession, which has been in now for three years. Andrew Pauker: And I would just add a couple of other variables as well in terms of evidence that we're seeing the rolling recovery take hold, and that Liberation Day was kind of the punctuation or the culmination of the rolling recession, and we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. So, number one, positive operating leverage is causing our earnings models to inflect sharply higher here. Median stock EPS growth, which had been negative for a lot of the 2022 to 2024 period is now actually turning positive. It's currently positive 6 percent now. The rolling correlation between equity returns and inflation break evens is also now significantly positive. That's classic early cycle. That's something we saw, you know, post COVID, post GFC And then lastly, just in terms of the market internals and kind of what, you know, under the surface, the equity market is telling us. So, the cyclical defensive ratio was down about 50 percent into the April lows. That's now up 50 percent from Liberation Day and is kind of breaking the downtrend that began in April of 2024. So, in addition to the earnings revisions V-shaped recovery that you mentioned, Mike. Those are a couple of other variables as well that are confirming that we're moving towards an early cycle backdrop and that the ruling recovery is commencing. Okay. So, we had the FOMC meeting. As expected the Fed delivered a 25 basis point cut. Mike, what's your read on the meeting as it relates to equities and the reaction function? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean this is really what we expected along with the consensus. We didn't have a different view that the Fed would give us 50. They gave us 25, and some people have characterized this as sort of a hawkish cut and very different than what we saw a year ago when the Fed kicked off that part of the rate cutting cycle with 50 basis points because they probably were worried a bit more about the labor market than they were about inflation. But you know, ultimately we think the labor data is going to get worse or the payroll data will prove to be worse because of the delay between the Doge layoffs and when those folks can file for unemployment insurance, which should be in October. And it's that delayed data that will then get the Fed cutting in earnest, which is what's necessary for the full rotation to kind of the lower quality parts of the market. So, while you're right that we've seen cyclicals perform, they haven't performed in the same way that we've seen prior cycles, like in 2020 or [20]08-[20]09, because the Fed hasn't cut. They're very far behind the curve. If you buy into our thesis that, you know, we had a rolling recession, we had an employment cycle, and they should be much more generous here. So that tension between the Fed's delay to get ahead of the curve and the market's need for speed to get there sooner and more deliberately – is where we think that, you know, we have to wait for that to occur to get the full rotation to the lower quality, kind of really cyclical parts of the market. Andrew Pauker: Okay, so let's talk about the back end of the yield curve a little bit and why that's important for stocks. In my dialogue with investors, there's a lot of focus here, just given what happened last fall when the Fed cut at the front end and the back end of the yield curve move higher. How should market participants think about this dynamic? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, I think this is an unknown known, if you will, because we saw this last fall. Where the Fed cut 100 basis points and the back end of the 10-year and 30-year Treasury market sold off. That's the first time we've ever seen that in history, where the Fed cuts that aggressively and the backend moves out. And this is a function of just all the fiscal imbalances and the debt issues that we face. And this is not a new issue. So, I think it remains to be seen if the bond market is going to be comfortable with the Fed not ignoring the 2 percent target – but you know, letting it run hot. As we've said, we think ultimately, they will have to let it run hot and they will, because that's what we need to have a chance at getting out of the debt problem. And so that sort of risk is still out in the future. I have less concern about that more recently because of the way the backend of the bond market has traded. But it's something that we need to keep in the back of our mind. If yields were to go back to 4.50, which is our key level, then that would be a problem as long as we're below, you know, sort of 4.50 and we're well below that now we're close to 4, I don't think this is a problem at all. Andrew Pauker: Yeah. One of the points that our colleague in rate strategy Matt Hornbach has highlighted is that the difference between now and the fourth quarter of last year when we saw that dynamic play out was that, you know, the bond market was very focused on the uncertainty around the fiscal situation. You know, we were going into an election, there was a fair amount of uncertainty around what Trump would do from a fiscal standpoint.And now, that is a known known, you know. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill signed into law. We know what the deficit impact is, so there is more clarity for the bond market on that front. So that is one key difference now versus last fall and why we may not see the same kind of reaction in the rates market. Mike, you brought up, kind of, run it hot, which was the title of our note from a couple of weeks ago. I just wanted to get your take on why some inflation coming back is actually a positive for equities and why actually the deceleration that we've seen in inflation over the last couple years is one reason why earnings for small cap indices, for instance, have deteriorated so much. And so, for in this environment where the Fed is perhaps a bit more tolerant of inflation in 2026, why that's actually a positive for equities. Mike Wilson: This is just an underappreciated sort of factoid that we actually identified back in 2020 and [20]21 as well. That when inflation is accelerating, that's a sign that pricing power is pretty good. And we actually see broader earnings. In fact, the best year for earnings, not just small caps, but the – call it the equal weighted S&P 500 was 2021. And that was the year where obviously inflation was really getting out of control. That was just pure profit for a lot of these businesses. And so – earnings will be better. Our call over the next 12 months is not about multiples or the Fed so much, but that we think earnings are going to end up being better than people expect because (a) we've been through this three-year earnings recession. There's a ton of pent-up demand. Okay? And now inflation is reaccelerating as demand comes back. And that is actually going to fall to the bottom line. So not only is that good for stocks, okay, but it's actually, it's also why the equity risk premium can be lower. Because if you want to hedge that risk of inflation moving higher, well then you should be willing to accept a lower equity risk premium relative to what is actually a pretty good base rate for 10-year yields, close to 2 percent on a real basis. So, you know, that's why the equity risk premium can stay low and why stocks can accrue at a, you know, pretty high PE multiple as these earnings come through better than expected. And one of the reasons is that inflation actually is accelerating in some of these areas where it's been deflationary. Andrew Pauker: Lastly, Mike, you know, you brought this up briefly. I want to address rotations under the surface of the market. We took off our large cap buys a few weeks ago, and as you mentioned, kind of signaled our intention – to get more constructive on small caps later this year in the fourth quarter. Can you specifically kind of walk through the signpost that we're waiting for before pressing the long, small cap trade here? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, we've probably… This is probably one of the areas we've done a really good job of just, you know, staying away from the fray. Meaning that, you know, we've been underweight small caps for really four years, and they've underperformed that entire time. I think the thing that we've been really patient about is just waiting for the Fed to lower rates to a level that's more conducive for these businesses that (a) need to obviously recap themselves, but then the cost of capital is just too high. So that's number one. But , at the end of the day, I mean, that should translate into better earnings revisions and that also has lagged. So, it's a combination of the two. The Fed getting ahead of the curve, which I would define as fed funds at least equal to two-year Treasury yields, but hopefully below two-year Treasury yields. Right now, we're about 60-65 basis points still above two-year yields . And then the second one is this ‘earnings your vision breadth on a relative basis. Small over large. It is trying to turn up now. It's been in a straight downtrend really for the last, you know, four years. And so those two together will affect a more robust relative outperformance. And just to be clear, small caps have done really well since Liberation Day, okay. So, in absolute terms, it's been great. It's just the relative trade has not really worked yet. That's where we're going to leave this conversation. Thanks for speaking with me, Andrew, to explain some of the thinking behind our calls. To our listeners, thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful, and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. If you think Thoughts on the Market is worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
Africa was especially hard hit by Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, which ended years of duty-free access to the U.S. and triggered a rush to find new markets. China's announcement that it will remove all tariffs on African imports undoubtedly provides some relief, but it shouldn't be the only answer, say experts. India, Southeast Asia, and Japan all offer tremendous opportunities for African exporters, if they know how to break into these markets. Géraud traveled from Mauritius to Singapore to join a conversation at the Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Technological University, where he was joined by the center's director Amit Jain and Veda Vaidyanathan, a fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi, for a lively conversation on the future of Africa-Asia relations beyond China. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
Today, guest host Ben Whedon welcomes Dave Bozell, president of the Media Research Center, to discuss the aftermath of the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk. We analyze the media's response, particularly focusing on MSNBC's controversial coverage and the implications of political bias in journalism. Bozell shares his insights on the current state of cable news, the challenges of reporting in a charged political environment, and the impact of media narratives on public perception. Later, Ben sits down with Congressman Nathaniel Moran from Texas to discuss the implications of Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs and the ongoing judicial battles surrounding them. Congressman Moran shares insights into the separation of powers, the role of federal judges, and the legislative efforts being made to address the national debt through the Trust Act. He also reflects on the dynamics of the House and Senate, the challenges of fiscal conservatism, and the importance of bipartisan cooperation in crafting effective policy. Finally, Ben engages in conversation with AMAC's Bobby Charles, the former Assistant Secretary of State and current frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the governorship of Maine. Bobby shares his insights on the political landscape of Maine, discussing the challenges the state faces, including high property taxes, drug trafficking, and the struggle of young people to find affordable housing. He emphasizes the need for a sea change in leadership and outlines his plans to restore hope and opportunity for all Mainers.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference. So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle. Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum. And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front? Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth. Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable. And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline growth here is effectively zero. Michelle Weaver: And how does power play into the reshoring story? AI and data centers are generating huge demand for power that well outstrip supply. Is there a risk that companies that want to reshore are not able to do so because of the power constraints?Christopher Snyder: It's a great question. I think it's part of the reason that this is moving more slowly. The companies that sell this power equipment tend to prioritize the data center customers given their scale in magnitude of buying. But ultimately, we think this is coming and it's a big opportunity for U.S. power to extend the upcycle.Manufacturing accounts for 26 percent of the electricity in the country. Data center accounts for about 5 percent. So, if the industrial economy returns to growth, there will be a huge pull on the grid; and I view it as a competitive advantage. If you think about the future of U.S. manufacturing, we're simply taking labor out and replacing it with electricity. That is a phenomenal trade off for the U.S. And a not as positive trade off for a lot of low-cost regions who essentially export labor to the world. I'm sure Adam will have more to say about that. Michelle Weaver: And Adam, I want to bring robotics and humanoid specifically into this conversation as the U.S.' technological edge is a big part of the reshoring story. So how do humanoids fit into reshoring? How much would they cost to use and how could they make American manufacturing more attractive? Adam Jonas: Humanoid robots – we're talking age agentic robots that make decisions from themselves autonomously due to the dual purpose in the military. You know, dual purpose aspect of it makes it absolutely necessary to onshore the technologies.At the same time, humanoid robots actually make it possible to onshore those technologies. Meaning you need; we're not going to be able to replicate manufacturing and onshore manufacturing the way it's currently done in China with their environmental practices and their labor – availability of affordable cheap human labor.Autonomous robots are both the cause of onshoring. And the effect of onshoring at the same time, and it's going to transform every industry. The question isn't so much as which industry will autonomous robots, including humanoids impact? It's what will it not.And we have not yet been able to find anything that it would. When you think about cost to use – we think by 2040 we get to a point where to Chris's point, the marginal cost of work will be some factor of electricity, energy, and some depreciation of that physical plant, or the physical robot itself. And we come up with a, a range of scenarios where centered on around $5 per hour. If that can replace two human workers at $25 an hour, that can NPV to around $200,000 of NPV per humanoid. That's discounting back 15 years from 2040.Michelle, there's 160 million people in the U.S. labor market, so if you just substituted 1 percent of that or 1.6 million people out of the U.S. Labor pool. 1.6 million times $200,000 NPV; that's $320 billion of value, which is worth, well, quite a lot. Quite a lot of money to a lot of companies that are working on this. So, when we get asked, what are we watching, well, in terms of the bleeding edge of the robot revolution, we're watching the Sino-U.S. competition. And I prefer to call it competition. And we're also watching the terra cap companies, the Mag 7 type companies that are quite suddenly and recently and very, very significantly going after physical AI and robotics talent. And increasingly even manufacturing talent. So again, to circle back to Chris's point, if you want evidence of reshoring and manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in this country, look at some of these TMT and tech and AI companies in California. And look at, go on their hiring website and watch all the manufacturing and robotics people that they're trying to hire; and pay a lot of money to do so. And that might be an interesting indicator of where we're going.Michelle Weaver: I want to dig in a little bit more there. We're seeing a lot of the cutting-edge tech coming out of China. Is the U.S. going to be able to catch up?Adam Jonas: Uh, I don't know. I don't know. But I would say what's our alternative. We either catch up enough to compete or we're up for grabs. OK?I would say from our reading and working closely with our team in China, that in many aspects of supply chain, manufacturing, physical AI, China is ahead. And with the passage of time, they are increasingly ahead. We estimate, and we can't be precise here, that China's lead on the U.S. would not only last three to five years, but might even widen three to five years from now. May even widen at an accelerating rate three to five years from now.And so, it brings into play is what kind of environment and what kind of regulatory, and policy decisions we made to help kind of level the playing field and encourage the right kind of manufacturing. We don't want to encourage trailing edge, Victorian era manufacturing in the U.S. We want to encourage, you know, to skate to where the puck is going technology that can help improve our world and create a sustainable abundance rather than an unsustainable one. And so, we're watching China very, very closely. It makes us a little bit; makes me a little bit kind of nervous when we – if we see the government put the thumb on the scale too much.But it's invariably going to happen. You're going to have increased involvement of whichever administration it is in order to kind of set policies that can encourage innovation, education of our young people, repurposing of labor, you know. All these people making machines in this country now. They might get, there may be a displacement over a number of years, if not a generation.But we need those human bodies to do other things in this economy as well. So, we; I don't want to give the impression at all in our scenarios that we don't need people anymore. Michelle Weaver: What are the opportunities and the risks that you see for investors as robotics converges with this broader U.S. manufacturing story? Adam Jonas: Well, Michelle, we see both opportunities and risks. There are the opportunities that you can measure in terms of what portion of global GDP of [$]115 trillion could you look at. I mean, labor alone is $40 trillion.And if you really make humanoid that can do the work of two workers, guess what? You're not going to stop at [$]40 trillion. You're going to go beyond that. You might go multiple beyond that. Talking about the world before AI, robotics and humanoid is like talking about the world before electricity. Or talking about business before the internet. We don't think we're exaggerating, but the proof will be in the capital formation. And that's where we hope we can be of assistance to our clients working together on a variety of investment ideas. But the risks will come and it is our professional responsibility, if not our moral responsibility, to work with our partners across research to talk about those risks. Michelle, if we have labor displacement, go too quickly, there's serious problems. And if you don't, if you don't believe me, go look at, look at you know, the French Revolution or the Industrial Revolution, or Age of Enlightenments. Ages of scientific enlightenment frequently cohabitate times of great social and political turmoil as well. And so, we think that these risks must be seen in parallel if we want to bring forth technologies that can make us more human rather than less human. I'm sorry if I'm coming across as a little preachy, but if you studied robots and labor all day long, it does have that effect on you. So, Michelle, how do you see innovation priorities changing for industrials and investors in this environment?Michelle Weaver: I think it's huge as we're seeing AI and technology broadly diffuse across different segments of the market, it's only becoming more important. About two-thirds of companies at the conference mentioned AI in some way, shape, or form. We know that from transcripts. And we're seeing them continue to integrate AI into their businesses. They're trying to go beyond what we've just seen at the initial edge. So, for example, if I think about what was going on within AI adoption a couple years ago, it was largely adding a chat bot to your website that's then able to handle a lot of customer service inquiries. Maybe you could reduce the labor there a little bit. Now we're starting to see a lot more business specific use cases. So, for example, with an airline, an airline company is using AI to most optimally gate different planes as they're landing to try and reduce connection times. They know which staff needs to go to another flight to connect, which passengers need to move to another flight. They're able to do that much more efficiently. You're seeing a lot on AI being adopted within manufacturing to make manufacturing processes a lot more seamless. So, I think innovation is only going to continue to become more important to not only industrials, but broadly the entire market as well.Clearly the industry is being shaped by adaptability, collaboration, and a focus on innovation. So, Chris, Adam, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Adam Jonas: Always a pleasure. Michelle.Christopher Snyder: Thank you for having us on. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
As we head towards the end of the year, financial markets are caught between fading growth and expectations regarding monetary policy. How should investors navigate financial markets in the final months of 2025, and where do we see the sweet spots?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Julius Baer's Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day, what they expect from the Fed and the ECB for the rest of the year, and the current global opportunities for investors, particularly, but not only, in the equity and fixed income space.(00:32) - Introduction of topic and speakers (01:12) - Macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day (02:10) - Asia's macroeconomic picture (05:05) - Year-end headline research calls (05:39) - Developed-market equity preferences (06:09) - Breaking away from the ‘US only' mindset (06:42) - Emerging market equity sweet spots (08:26) - Where to find value in fixed income (09:10) - Commodities outlook (11:06) - US dollar set to weaken? (11:46) - Dealing with tariff news (12:45) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for U.S. stocks after Friday's nonfarm payroll data reinforced the thesis of a transition from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing Friday's Payroll report and what it means for equities. It's Monday, Sept 8th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. The heavily anticipated nonfarm payroll report on Friday supports our view that the labor market is weak. However, this is old news to the equity market as we have been discussing for months. First, the labor market data is perhaps the most backward-looking of all the economic series. Second, it's particularly prone to major revisions that tend to make the current data unreliable in real time, which is why the National Bureau of Economic Research typically declares a recession started at a time when most were unaware we were in one. Furthermore, history suggests these revisions are pro-cyclical, meaning they get more negative going into a recession and then more positive once the recovery's begun. It appears this time is no different. Indeed, Friday's revisions were better than last month's by a wide margin suggesting the labor market bottomed in the second quarter. This insight adds support to our primary thesis on the economy and markets that I have been maintaining for the past several years. More specifically, I believe a rolling recession began in 2022 and finally bottomed in April with the tariff announcements made on “Liberation Day.” After the initial phase of this rolling recession, that was led by a payback in Covid pull-forward demand in tech and consumer goods, other sectors of the economy went through their own individual recessions at different times. This is a key reason why we never saw the typical spike in the metrics used to define a traditional recession, although the revisions data is now revealing it more clearly. The historically significant rise in immigration post-covid and subsequent enforcement this year have also led to further distortions in many of these labor market measures. While we have written about these topics extensively over the past several years, Friday's weak labor report provides further evidence of our thesis that we are now transitioning from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. In short, we're entering a new cycle environment and the Fed cutting interest rates will be key to the next leg of the new bull market that began in April. Central to our view is the notion that the economy has been much weaker for many companies and consumers over the past 3 years than what the headline economic statistics like nominal GDP or employment suggest. We think a better way to measure the health of the economy is earnings growth, and breadth; as well as consumer and corporate confidence surveys. Perhaps the simplest way to determine if an economy is doing well or not is to ask: is it delivering prosperity broadly? On that score, we think the answer is “no” given the fact that earnings growth has been negative for most companies over the past 3 years. The good news is that growth has finally entered positive territory the past 2 quarters. This coincides with the v-shaped recovery in earnings revisions breadth we have been highlighting for months. We think this supports the notion that the worst of the rolling recession is behind us and likely troughed in April. As usual, equity markets got this right and bottomed then, too. Now, we think a proper rate cutting cycle is likely and necessary for the next leg of this new bull market. Given the risk that the Fed may still be focused on inflation more than the weakness in the lagging labor market data, rate cuts may materialize more slowly than what equity investors want. Combined with some signs that liquidity may be drying up a bit as both corporate and Treasury issuance increases, it would not surprise me if equity markets go through some consolidation or even a correction during the seasonally weak time of the year. Should that happen, we would be buyers of that dip and likely even consider moving down the quality curve in anticipation of a more dovish Fed and coordinated action with the Treasury. Bottom line, a new bull market for equities began with the trough in the rolling recession that began in 2022. It's still early days for this new bull which means dips should be bought. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, we cover new revelations about the Minneapolis trans shooter's family and manifesto, fresh polling on Trump's crime crackdown, a major court battle over tariffs, and Trump's firing spree across the federal government. From tragic lessons in Minnesota to seismic fights in Washington, today's brief connects crime, economics, and politics shaping America's future. Trans Shooter's Family Secrets and Final Words: Robert Westman's manifesto admitted, “Gender and weed f***'ed up my head… I wish I never tried experimenting with either.” He blamed his father for pushing him into transitioning and his mother for warning he would regret it, writing, “You were right mama, but the way you handled it led me to wanting to kill so so many people.” Bryan calls it proof of medical quackery, marijuana's dangers, and adults failing a child into madness. Trump's Crime Crackdown Gains Support: A new AP poll shows 53 percent of Americans approve of Trump's approach, with DC Mayor Muriel Bowser conceding his surge “worked” after carjackings fell 87 percent. She added, “When carjackings go down, neighborhoods feel safer and are safer.” In Chicago, Mayor Brandon Johnson signed an order to resist federal forces, but courts say Trump's deployments are legal under the Insurrection Act. Court Battle Over Trump's Tariffs: An appeals court struck down Trump's sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs under IEEPA, setting up a Supreme Court fight in October. Trump warned, “If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America.” Meanwhile, Trump ended the $800 “de minimis” exemption, slashing it to $200 and rocking supply chains. Some small retailers warn they will go bust, while U.S. tomato growers and flatware makers report new life under tariff protections. Trump Fires Federal Employees and Questions Vaccines: From the EPA to the DOJ to the CIA, Trump is firing staff en masse. At the CDC, he broke from his past support for Operation Warp Speed, declaring, “It is very important that the Drug Companies justify the success of their various Covid Drugs… I want the answer, and I want it NOW.” Meanwhile, Tulsi Gabbard's revocation of 37 security clearances included a CIA officer just promoted undercover, abruptly ending her 30-year career. Bryan says Trump is cutting with “a chainsaw, not a scalpel” to root out the Deep State. "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32 Keywords: Robert Westman trans shooter manifesto, gender dysphoria regret, marijuana psychosis mass shooting, Trump crime crackdown poll, Muriel Bowser carjackings down, Brandon Johnson Chicago ICE order, Trump Insurrection Act authority, Trump Liberation Day tariffs, Supreme Court IEEPA case, de minimis exemption $200, U.S. tomato tariffs, Sherill flatware revival, Trump fires CDC CIA EPA DOJ staff, Trump questions Covid vaccines, Tulsi Gabbard CIA clearance revocation
In the first of a two- part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss the outcome of the Jackson Hole meeting and the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed rate path during the rest of the year. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Last Friday, the Jackson Hole meeting delivered a big surprise to markets. Both stocks and bonds reacted decisively.Today, the first of a two-part episode. We'll discuss Michael's reaction to Chair Powell's Jackson Hole comments and what they mean for his view on the outlook for monetary policy. Tomorrow, the outlook for interest rate markets and the US dollar. It's Thursday, August 28th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, here we are after Jackson Hole. The mood this year felt a lot more hawkish, or at least patient than what we saw last week. And Chair Powell really caught my attention when he said, “with policy and restrictive territory, the baseline outlook for the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That line has been on my mind ever since. So, let's dig into it. What's your gut reaction?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me, and I think I would highlight three aspects of his Jackson Hole comments that were important to me. So, I think what happened here, of course, is the Fed became much more worried about downside risk to the labor market after the July employment report, right? So, at the July FOMC meeting, which came before that report, Powell had said, ‘Well, you know, slow payroll growth is fine as long as the unemployment rate stays low.' And that's very much in line with our view. But sometimes these things are easier said than done. And I think the July employment report told them perhaps there's more weakness in the labor market now than they thought.So, I think the messaging here is about a shift towards risk management mode. Maybe we need to put in a couple policy rate cuts to shore up the labor market. And I think that was the big change and I think that's what drove the overall message in the statement. But there were two other parts of it that I think were interesting, you know. From the economist's point of view, when the chair explicitly writes in a speech that ‘the economy now may warrant adjustments in our policy stance,' right? I mean, that's a big deal. It suggests that the decision has been largely made, and I think anytime the Fed is taking a change of direction, either easing or tightening, they're not just going to do one move. So, they're signaling that they're likely prepared to do a series of moves, and we can debate about what that means. And the third thing that struck me is right before the line that you mentioned he did qualify the need to adjust rates by saying, well, whatever we do, we should, “Proceed cautiously.” So, a year ago, as you recall, the Fed opened up with a big 50 basis point rate cut, which was a surprise. And cut at three successive meetings. So, a hundred basis points of cuts over three meetings, starting with a 50 basis point cut. I think the phraseology ‘proceeds carefully' is a signal to markets that, ‘Hey, don't expect that this time around.' The world's different. This is a risk management discussion. And so, we think, two rate cuts before year end would be most likely. Maybe you get three. But I don't think we should expect a large 50 basis point cut at the September meeting. So those would be my thoughts. Downside risk to the labor market – putting this into words says something important to me. And the ‘proceed cautiously' language I think is something markets also need to take into account.Matthew Hornbach: So how do you translate that into a forecasted path for the Fed? I mean, in terms of your baseline outlook, how many rate cuts are you forecasting this year? And what about in 2026?Michael Gapen: Right. So, we previously; we thought what the Fed was doing was leaning against risks that inflation would be persistent. They moved into that camp because of how fast tariffs were going up and the overall level of the effective tariff rate. So, we thought they would stay on hold for longer and when they move, move more rapidly. What they're saying now in a risk management sense, right; they still think risk to inflation is to the upside, but the unemployment rate is also to the upside. And they're looking at both of those as about equally weighted. So, in a baseline outlook where the Fed's not assuming a recession and neither are we, you get a maybe a dip in growth and a rise in inflation. But growth recovers and inflation comes down next year. In that world, and with the idea that you're proceeding cautiously, they're kind of moving and evaluating, moving and evaluating.So, I think the translation here is: a path of quarterly rate cuts between now and the end of 2026. So, six rate cuts, but moving quarterly, like September and December this year; March, June, September, and December next year; which would take us to a terminal target range of 2.75 to 3. So rather than moving later and more rapidly, you move earlier, but more gradually. That's how we're thinking about it now.Matthew Hornbach: And that's about a 25 basis point upward adjustment to the trough policy rate that you were forecasting previously…Michael Gapen: That's right. So, the prior thought was a Fed that moves later may have to cut more, right? Because you're – by holding policy tighter for longer – you're putting more downward weight on the economy from a cyclical perspective. So, you may end up cutting more to essentially reverse that in 2026. So, by moving earlier, maybe a Fed that moves a little earlier, cuts a little less.Matthew Hornbach: In terms of the alternative outcomes. Obviously, in any given forecast, things can go not as expected. And so, if the path turns out to be something other than what you're forecasting today, what would be some of the more likely outcomes in your mind?Michael Gapen: Yeah, as we like to say in economics, we forecast so we know where we're wrong. So, you're right, the world can evolve very differently. So just a couple thoughts. You know, one, now that we're thinking the Fed does cut in September, what gets them not to cut? You'd need a – I think, a really strong August employment report; something around 225,000 jobs, which would bring the three-month moving average back to around 150, right. That would be a signal that the May-June downdraft was just a post Liberation Day pothole and not trend deterioration in the labor market. So that, you know, would be one potential alternative. Another is – although we've projected quarterly paths in this kind of nice gradual pace of cuts, we could get a repeat of last year where the Fed cuts 50 to 75 basis points by year end but realizes the labor market has not rolled over. And then we get some tariff pass through into inflation. And maybe residual seasonality and inflation in Q1. And then the Fed goes on hold again, then cuts could resume later in the year. And I also think in the backdrop here, when the Fed is saying we are easing in a risk management sense and we're easing maybe earlier than we otherwise would – that suggests the Fed has greater tolerance for inflation. So, understanding how much tolerance this Fed or the next one has for above target inflation, I think could influence how many rate cuts you eventually get in in 2026. So, we could even see a deeper trough through greater inflation tolerance. And finally, of course, we're not out of the woods with respect to recession risk. We could be wrong. Maybe the labor market is trend weakening and we're about to find that out. Growth is slowing. Growth was about 1.3 percent in the first half of the year. Final sales is softer. Of course, in a recession alternative scenario, the Fed's probably cutting much deeper, maybe down to 1 50 to 175 on the funds rate.So, I mean, Matt, you make a good point. There's still many different ways the economy can evolve and many different ways that the Fed's path for policy rates can evolve.Matthew Hornbach: Well, that's a good place to bring this Part 1 episode to an end. Tune in tomorrow, for my reaction to the market price action that followed Chair Powell's speech -- and what it means for our outlook for interest rate markets and the U.S. dollar.Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Today Nicole sits down with Yossi Levi—aka Car Dealership Guy—for a no-fluff breakdown of what's really happening in the car market and everything you need to know if you're car shopping. They unpack how the new Liberation Day tariffs are impacting prices, what's still negotiable at the dealership, and whether used cars are feeling the heat, too. Plus, Yossi weighs in on viral tax hacks like the G-Wagon deduction and a new write-off in Trump's latest tax proposal that could save you big. And yes, Nicole asks what he drives—because obviously. Follow Car Dealership Guy This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. As part of the IRA Match Program, Public Investing will fund a 1% match of: (a) all eligible IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers made to a Public IRA; and (b) all eligible contributions made to a Public IRA up to the account's annual contribution limit. The matched funds must be kept in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time. See full terms here. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC. *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.
It's Liberation Day…again. After two missed deadlines and only a few trade deals done, Trump's global tariffs officially go into effect today. To mark the occasion, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro says the president not only deserves a Nobel Peace Prize—but also a Nobel Prize in economics. Meanwhile, Trump can't stop talking about Jeffrey Epstein, telling reporters on Air Force One that Virginia Giuffre was "stolen" by Jeffrey Epstein from the Mar-a-Largo spa. Trump pressures Senate Republicans to kill a ban on congressional (and presidential) stock trading. Jon and Dan discuss the latest, including Democrats' shifting views on Gaza, Kamala Harris's decision not to run for California governor, and Texas Republicans' attempts to steal the 2026 midterm elections by redrawing their congressional map. Then, Congressman Jason Crow joins Tommy in the studio to talk about recruiting Democrats to run for office, and why he's suing ICE after being denied entry to a detention facility in his district.
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