Podcasts about Liberation Day

The headlines say the tariff war is still raging. According to Richard Baldwin, Washington has spent the past year quietly backing away from it, one exemption and carve-out at a time. In episode 93, Robert Skidmore and I look at what that retreat means for a global trading system that increasingly seems to be organising itself around the US rather than through it. Then we sit down with Charles-Henry Monchau, Chief Investment Officer at Bank Syz, to ask how investors should think about geopolitics, industrial policy and capital flows in what he calls the era of "slowbalization." Trade policy, energy security and investment strategy are no longer separate conversations. Canada and the EU are building a deeper partnership, Germany is weighing a tougher economic-security approach to China, and an energy squeeze is heading into winter that looks a lot like 2022. Meanwhile, our guest points out that global equities were hitting record highs despite all the scary headlines. The awkward question for anyone with a portfolio, a supply chain or a heating bill is how those pieces fit together. What Went Wrong This Week The quiet tariff retreat. Baldwin argues the effective US tariff rate rose from about 2% to a peak of around 11% in October 2025, then fell to roughly 6.7% by May 2026, largely through exemptions and lower applied rates rather than public reversals. His read: the rest of the world is adapting around the US in what he calls an "N minus one" trading system. Canada and the EU move closer. A deeper strategic partnership, Mark Carney's call for a closer alliance of like-minded democracies, CETA's provisional application, and why supply chains and critical minerals are part of the story. Germany's China rethink. Bloomberg reports Berlin is preparing a tougher economic-security approach: tariffs on certain Chinese plug-in hybrids, investment screening, export controls, EU procurement preferences, local content requirements, and possibly joint-venture rules for Chinese firms in Europe. We look at "China shock 2.0," the rare earths choke point, and the price gap between a Renault EV and a BYD or Xpeng. The energy squeeze. Hormuz, Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refining, record US diesel prices and the on-again, off-again talk of a US export ban, record-low EU gas storage for this time of year, and a fertilizer squeeze that could outlast the Hormuz closure itself (Peter Goodman flagged that one). The lesson: depending on US energy is now a risk you have to hedge. Our guest: Charles-Henry Monchau Charles-Henry Monchau is Chief Investment Officer and ExCo member at Bank Syz. Before that, he was CIO of Dubai Investments and head of asset allocation for EMEA at Deutsche Bank, with senior roles across Geneva, Zurich, Dubai, Nassau and Paris. He holds an executive MBA from IE Business School and an MSc in finance from HEC, is a CFA, CMT, CAIA and CIIA charterholder, and is a top voice on LinkedIn with more than 280,000 followers. In our conversation, we cover: What a CIO actually does (the answer involves an orchestra conductor and the auto industry). Why contrarian investing is easy to explain and very hard to do: the moment to take some profits is when everything looks perfect, and the hardest moment to buy risk is when it feels like the end of the world. From globalisation to "slowbalization": US-China geo-economics, sovereignty, why chips are now made at home rather than by the lowest-cost producer, and the three strategic priorities he sees: AI and robotics, defence, and electric power. Why global equities keep hitting all-time highs despite the headlines, from a record DAX with only two tech stocks to a rally broadening across Europe and emerging markets, and why he calls it "the most hated global equity bull market." Why geopolitics and geoeconomics are here to stay, as both an opportunity and a risk for investors. Why he sees the bond market as the ultimate judge of US policy, from Liberation Day to the "TACO" trade. Expat corner: what living abroad taught him about Switzerland, including direct democracy, a constitutional debt brake and a strong franc that pushes companies up the value chain. On a scale of zero to SpaceX, how worried should we be about a bubble? His answer: SpaceX is like an option. You can find Syz's investment insights on the Syz Group website and LinkedIn page. Plus: why 93 is a surprisingly good number for a trade podcast (neptunium, the end of the GATT Uruguay Round on 15 December 1993, chapter 93 of the Harmonized System, and CERN putting the World Wide Web software into the public domain), Gen Z's "Get Off My Lawn" segment, hobby-maxing as a recession indicator, AI-generated sloths on Vespas, and the return of the river otter to Geneva. This episode is brought to you by Active Languages, a Geneva-based language training company that has been helping professionals, expats and international families succeed in Switzerland for nearly 30 years. Trade Splaining listeners get a complimentary language level assessment and initial consultation: email [confirm address with Active Languages] and mention Trade Splaining, or learn more at activelanguages.com.

Today, a look back at another dicey day for risk sentiment as global bond yields continued to ratchet higher as we head into month-end and quarter-end with possible portfolio rebalancing in the mix after a remarkable period for fixed income. Elsewhere, our overall global risk indicator is under the most pressure since the Liberation Day episode in the spring of 2025, even if equity market sentiment remains relatively stable. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Michael Every's latest global macro piece:  A great deal of concern.  Michael Kao makes a great point on the "rate sensitive narrative" not adding up. Alexander Stahel claims Hormuz Strait flows are 94% of normal. So what is the oil price doing here still? To be fair, he still points out some concerns. Izabella Kaminska on how AI assistants might contribute to a rise in funding costs for banks. FTAlphaville covers US Treasury Secretary Bessent's hire of David Zervos, recycling the latter's own comments on markets. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Join Keith, Terry, and Matthew live for a properties event on September 30th. Sign up here: GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth Keith Weinhold asks why so many people end up competing in the "Grind Olympics" of the traditional day job, and explains why separating income from time is key to building real wealth.  He then counts down the top five ways to give a rental property a raise by increasing its net operating income, and points to the lever investors most often overlook.  Keith also looks at what has happened to home prices during every major stock market crash since 1980, and shows why negotiating better financing terms can beat simply getting a lower purchase price.  He offers practical strategies for building cash flow, creating value and investing with more confidence in any market. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/625 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  FAMILY to 66866  Join Mid South Home Buyers' one-time, free live webinar featuring Keith Weinhold on September 30 at GetRichEducation.com/MidSouth to learn how Memphis' economic expansion could create new real estate investment opportunities, and have your questions answered in real time. Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Does your day job have you competing in the Grind Olympics? It's something that you never signed up for, and the top five ways to increase your rental property's income. Then, when stocks crash, what happens to real estate? You'll see historically today on Get Rich Education. What if I told you that one of America's strongest cash flow real estate markets is also becoming the new brains and brawn behind AI? That city is Memphis, believe it or not. In September 30th, we're going to show you why the smart money is paying attention now, along with an investing opportunity you won't want to miss. Join me, Terry Kerr and Matthew Van Horn of Mid South Homebuyers, the largest turnkey company in Memphis with more than 6000 homes under management, for a free live webinar the likes of which I've never done before. We're going to look at what billions in new investment could mean for jobs, housing demand, neighborhood appreciation, and your portfolio. Everyone who attends live will also get exclusive access to the best deal terms Mid South has ever offered. Reserve your free seat at getricheducation.com/midsouth again. that september 30. Don't say we didn't tell you. Save your spot at getricheducation.com/midsouth.   Speaker 1  1:34   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get Rich Education.   Keith Weinhold  1:50   Welcome to GRE from Wheeling, West Virginia, to Whiting, Indiana, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to Get Rich Education. Before I get into basically giving your rental property a raise with the top five ways to increase its income, first let's get the context of pulling back and understanding your compelling why for all of this. You may or may not like investment property itself-it's more likely rather that you love what it does for you. That's how it is for me. What do most people do? It's like they're training for the Grind Olympics. Are you doing this too? But you don't remember signing up? I mean, that's kind of what the day job is, society's vortex gradually pulls you into it. The investment property is what gradually tilts you out of it, or it gives you that option. For so many, the day job, it's sort of like this competition that really no one officially announces it yet. Millions enter it. Who can work the longest hours? Who can answer the most emails? Who can miss the most family dinners? Who can delay their life the longest? And at the end of it all, something we call retirement. If you're a winner, not a loser. The winner, you receive a gold-colored watch, lukewarm sheet cake, and a little party at age 65, and that's assuming that the finish line hasn't been moved to 70.   Keith Weinhold  3:40   This is especially bad and prevalent in the United States, where you start out with just two weeks vacation. That's about the worst grind in the developed world. I really myself started questioning this lifestyle when I was a teenager, and this is because my older friends, sort of those that were getting into their late teens, they were relatable to me, and they started going down this path and telling me about it. And suddenly, they couldn't play baseball or tennis with me during the day because they started working during their summers. Now that's not so bad in itself, but stay with me. I also looked at the adults around me and noticed that most traded the majority of their waking hours for work that they didn't even like. Now, my dad was a good worker. He worked 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. faithfully Monday to Friday, and despite being a good worker, he certainly didn't love his job. As a teen, then I found it confounding that so many people were working Monday through Friday, primarily why, primarily to reach the weekend. Wednesday was celebrated as. Day, this sort of strange admission that the work week was something to climb over and survive. You're surrendering 50 weeks to earn two weeks of vacation. You're repeating that very bargain for 40 years and hoping you still have enough money, energy, and health to enjoy retirement. And what puzzled me most was where this was happening. We are not some impoverished nation with paltry resources and limited opportunity. This is the United States, the most powerful and perhaps the most prosperous nation in the world.   Keith Weinhold  5:40   This is the part that I still can't work out in my head. Almost everybody falls into a narrow, rigid groove and grinds. Eventually, the groove becomes a rut. Then the rut gets a job title and a dental plan. Many even form their identity around this. Fear is the number one motivator that gets employees to show up at work. So then, do most people lead fear-based lives? It's almost insane. Sheesh! We have skyscrapers, interstate highways, world-class universities, abundant natural resources, advantageous geography, rule of law. We've got vast capital markets. We've got technology that sent people to the moon before I was born. Endless possibilities, but yet the standard life plan is to spend our most vivacious years doing something that we didn't even want to do. What a paradox! How could a nation create so much wealth while so many people have such little control over their own time? Even then, as a teenager, I remember thinking, "Gosh, there has got to be a better way than this system somehow. I didn't yet know the way, so I started going to college at age 18.   Keith Weinhold  7:16   But this path put me on that same trajectory of get good grades, land a job, max up my 401k, which would reduce my salary, and work for four decades, and then cross my fingers and just somehow hope that promotions, inflation, taxes, a stock market that I couldn't control, and life itself would cooperate. I mean, that plan could kind of work, but your time is still doing most of the work. Your employer rents your time usually one hour at a time, and if you stop supplying the hours, then soon enough your income stops too. Capital compound. labor doesn't. The better path is to gradually separate your income from your time. That's what I began doing when, while I was working full time, I bought my first income-producing rental property a few years later, a few years after college, in fact, doing that on the side, divergent, black sheep. I was stepping out of the groove. Now I own an asset that created leverage and income, whether I'm working, sleeping, camping, climbing a mountain, or spending time with my family. So the goal then it's not to avoid hard work entirely. I mean, meaningful work that can even provide some purpose and achievement and pride. But what provides wealth? What are you going to do for that? Wealth is what happens when you're not working. Wealth is what happens when you're sleeping. Labor produces income. Assets create wealth. Grinding should be a season, even your contribution to society, but not your primarily financial strategy. So the bottom line is that we don't want to win the grind Olympics, income-producing assets help us build a life that we don't have to postpone. The entire conventional life plan, the whole thing, just never felt right to me. Intuitively and rationally, deep down, you know, think to yourself: Doesn't at least some part of you feel that way too? Thank God that I found real estate. I don't love it. I love what it does for me. You've got to love what it does for you.   Keith Weinhold  9:54   One attribute that your income property gives you is control. So. With that in mind, I put together the top five ways to increase your rental property income countdown style from number five to number one. Since you do own an asset that you can control, so we're talking about giving your rental property a raise here, and you know your property does not even need to appreciate in order for you to make it more valuable, your property doesn't need to sit around waiting for the market to appreciate like it's waiting for a promotion from corporate or something, which always takes too long. You can manufacture more income yourself. So net operating income or NOI, it only has two moving parts. It is property income minus operating expenses. Push income up or pull expenses down, and you've effectively given yourself a raise. Better yet, on an income-valued property like a five-plus unit apartment building, every additional dollar of NOI can create far more than $1 of property value. So here are the top five ways to increase your property's income.   Keith Weinhold  11:10   The fifth best way is to add ancillary income, because monthly rent it's not the only asset inside your property. Now, depending on what property type you have and what the local laws are, you can charge for pets, parking, storage, laundry, furnishings. You can charge for internet packages, utility reimbursement, reserved garages, upgraded amenities, or you can even charge in some cases for application, administrative, or lease break fees. The best ancillary income it provides something that the resident genuinely values. We're here to serve and give value to others. Importantly, it should feel like an option for your tenant with these things, not some toll booth placed between the tenant and their front door. We know how annoying it is to have a tip screen swung around and placed in your face. Even an additional 25 or $50 per unit each month that can become meaningful across several properties. The fourth best way is to cut your controllable operating expenses, and you know what most investors do, and it is easy to fall into this, and I certainly have too at times. You know, most investors they carefully negotiate the property's purchase price at the beginning, and then they spend years casually accepting every recurring bill, audit your expenses rather than just accepting last year's cost plus inflation.   Keith Weinhold  12:49   So closely look at your property management fees, landscaping and snow removal, pest control, cleaning, trash service, water consumption, and any leaks that you might have. Common area electricity, repair labor and material markups, service contracts, and preventive maintenance. Gosh, I really lost a lot of money in pest control one time when the pest would just move from one apartment unit to the other, and we just couldn't get it trapped or stopped. Loyalty is admirable in marriage. It is less compelling when your landscaping company raises its price 14% every year. So solicit competing bids, consolidate your vendors where you can, install efficient fixtures where the payback period makes sense and where the break-even math works. But now, don't confuse expense reduction with maintenance neglect.   Keith Weinhold  13:53   That is one danger. So you know, if you delay a $300 repair until it becomes a $3,000 emergency, well, that really doesn't increase your NOI. It merely makes this month's numbers lie. Now, as I tell you about this list, you might think sometimes, "Oh, I've heard of that one before. Okay, but yeah, are you actually doing it? The third best way to increase your property's income is to challenge taxes and shop insurance because property taxes and insurance they are really among your property's largest operating expenses. So therefore, if you get good at this, you can both increase your net income and you will have gained a new skill that you can apply later and elsewhere. Yet you know a lot of owners they treat property tax and insurance sort of like the weather. They complain about them and then they just assume that nothing can be done. Possible moves that you can make are appealing in excessive property tax assessment, correct inaccurate property records. You can compare insurance carriers as often as annually. Adjust your deductibles when it's appropriate. Be sure you remove redundant coverage. Make sure that there's no overlap there. You can add safety or resilience improvements that qualify for insurance discounts, and then at the same time, sometimes that improves your property's value. You can check the property's classification and claims history for any errors there. So you know every legitimate dollar saved that flows directly into your NOI, your net operating income. Remember, mortgage payments though they do not factor into NOI. Neither do major capital expenditures. Refinancing can improve your cash flow, but that does not increase the property's NOI, and that's what we're talking about today. But when it comes to property tax appeals, you remember a while back on the show, perhaps a year ago, I went into detail on just how you can do that.   Keith Weinhold  16:00   Now we're up to number two. The second best way to increase your NOI is to raise rents intelligently, and really this is the most obvious strategy. But it isn't as simple as typing a larger number into your renewal letter and then just sort of hoping that your tenant doesn't notice. Bring rents closer to market without automatically chasing the absolute maximum. That can include gradual increases at renewal, premiums for upgraded units. How about a premium for the unit with the best view? If you have one of those, higher rent for furnished units, appropriate charges for garages or shorter lease terms. I mean, shorter lease terms, like a six month instead of a 12 month, that can get you a bump up in the rent. Be sure to eliminate any unnecessary concessions, like the first month's rent is free. Do you really have to continue to do that? And use better listing photos and copy to support higher rents. It's easy to have AI write some good snappy copy for you today. So the objective here is economic occupancy, not merely the highest advertised rent, because raising the rent $100, if that's going to create an extra month of vacancy that is stepping over dollars to pick up dimes. Know the market, understand the tenant, and make increases that improve NOI rather than merely improving the asking price for the REM. And the top way, the number one way to increase NOI is reduce vacancy and turnover. Yes, you might have heard that before, but it is still the most overlooked NOI lever, even though it's number one. An occupied unit at a sensible rent that often produces more income than an overpriced empty one.   Keith Weinhold  17:58   The way to improve your occupancy is by you starting renewal conversations 60 to 90 days before that lease comes due. Respond quickly to maintenance requests. I mean, few things frustrate a tenant more than a ceiling that is leaked for a month. Pre-market an upcoming vacancy that you have. Start that process early. Complete your turns faster, screen residents carefully, and unless you're in an especially hot market, consider offering renewal incentives when turnover would cost you substantially more than doing that. So there are a bunch of ideas for reducing vacancy and turnover. Another one, more of a modern-day one, is for you to buy and operate new build property because tenants tend to stay in new builds longer. They love that feeling that no one has ever lived there before. Suppose a unit rents for $1,800 a month. All right. Well, then one vacant month costs you $1,800 before cleaning, repairs, utilities, advertising, and leasing expenses. So the true cost of that turnover could easily be three or $4,000. And when you consider that, then giving a good resident a $250 one time renewal incentive that doesn't look generous that looks profitable for you. Keeping a responsible tenant, you know that might be the biggest quote unquote rent increase available. Just simply keeping a responsible tenant because occupied properties produce income, and empty properties produce invoices.   Keith Weinhold  19:48   Now that I've told you about the five ways to increase your property's income, let me give you some more motivation for this. It's about how $250 can become 50. $1,000. Suppose you select just a few of these five improvements, and say that that increases your NOI by just $250 per month. Okay, that's nice. That's cash in your pocket, and if you happen to apply it to a five-plus unit apartment building, since it's also valued on NOI. You take 250 bucks times 12. That is $3,000 a year at a 6% capitalization rate. Take 3000 divided by point 06. That is $50,000. You just created 50k of additional property value from only $250 of monthly NOI creation. Yeah, you are up 50k now, and here's the thing: you did not do anything that substantial. It's not like you added another story to a property, or you discovered oil underneath your parking lot, or you convinced a celebrity to move in. Okay, these are practical things that you can do in control. You simply operated the property better, and this forced appreciation relationship that applies most directly, though, to commercial and larger multifamily properties because those are the types that are valued based upon their income. A single-family rental or a duplex or a fourplex that is generally appraised primarily through comparable sales. So its higher NOI might not immediately produce the same increase in appraised value, but in either case, higher NOI it still means more cash flow for you, a stronger financial cushion, and a better performing investment. The bottom line here is that you can wait for the market to increase your property's value, or you can operate the property better and create value yourself, raise income, control expenses, and keep good residents. That is how you improve NOI without increasing your blood pressure.   Keith Weinhold  22:10   Coming up on the next few shows, we're going to speak with the original co-author of the book Rich Dad Poor Dad. Yes, we had Robert Kiyosaki on here earlier this year, but we're going to talk with the co-author alongside Robert Kiyosaki. A lot of people don't know who that is. That is going to be interesting on another upcoming episode. The man that wrote the book on the 8020 rule called the Pareto principle, he will be here. That's where 80% of the results come from. 20% of the effort. So here on GRE, there's a lot of education, strategy, and mindset coming up straight ahead today. When stocks crash, what happens to real estate? That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Get Rich Education. Let me ask you something: If you've worked hard to build wealth, is your money positioned to actually support your goals. A lot of accredited investors leave capital sitting in cash because it feels safe, but inflation and missed income opportunities can quietly erode its value. Freedom Family Investments offers freedom notes for investors seeking structured income backed by real estate. It's a straightforward approach built on real assets, not speculation. In full disclosure, I'm an investor myself.   Keith Weinhold  23:27   What I like is that their team walks you through how it all works, so you can decide if it aligns with your portfolio and income goals. Every investment carries risk, and nothing is guaranteed. But with a track record of consistent, on-time investor payouts-they built real credibility. Go to freedomfamilyinvestments.com to book a clarity call, or text family to 66866. That's family to 66866. What if you got your mortgage loans the same place I get mine. You sure can at Ridge Lending Group NMLS 42056. They provided GRE listeners with more loans than anyone because Ridge specializes in investment property. They'll help you build a long-term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequal and even chat directly with President Caeli Ridge while it's on your mind. Start at ridgelendinggroup.com. That's ridgelendinggroup.com.   Kirsten Tate  24:31   This is author Kristen Tate. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:49   Welcome back to Get Rich Education. I'm your host Keith Weinhold, and this is episode 625. AI songs are becoming more popular. Fortunately. AI podcast hosts-they really aren't that much of a thing yet, or else I might not be here. Thank goodness that listeners still want to hear from a real person. When stocks crash, what happens to home prices? Since 1980, there have been 10 or more major stock downturns. Guess how many of those cause national home prices to crash? Exactly zero. Now there was one pretty enormous housing decline, but that one started in housing. And what happens next? It reveals something that every real estate investor should understand a lot like real estate right now. Stocks are hovering near their all-time highs. Okay, both major assets, real estate and stocks, bumping up against all-time highs. There is a predictable rhythm about what happens to real estate when stocks crash. Now, when we look at stocks' seven big downturns that occurred just this century, as measured by the S&P 500, you know, first a lot of people think that stocks are overvalued here in the late 2020s. That is based on measures like the historic P/E ratio, the Shiller cape ratio, and the Buffett indicator. I mean, some investors are just disillusioned by how stocks' movement makes so little sense anymore. For example, when the latest labor number showed that 162,000 jobs were added in a month. That tripled expectations. I mean, people should have been like, "Hey, go USA! This is great. People are employed. All that. Nope. The stock market fell specifically in response to that. Why? Because strong employment increases the chances of higher interest rates, and sure enough, the Fed did then raise rates.   Keith Weinhold  27:09   Oh, geez, what? So a labor market collapse is then bad for America, and that's good for stocks. Yes, that is how it works. That is just stupid. So, with that context in mind, let's see what actually happened to national home prices this century during all the major stock market downturns that were not caused by housing, and then we'll get back to housings. Okay, during the dot-com bust in 9/11, that whole period about 25 years ago, stocks again. This is all per the S and p5 100 crashed 49% Home prices were up 23% during that time. We'll get back to the global financial crisis shortly. During the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, do you even remember that stocks went down 19 percent. Home prices went down just slightly, 1 percent. During the 2018 Fed tightening and trade war sell-off, stocks were down 20 percent, a classic bear market. Home prices were up 1 percent. Then came COVID. In barely a month, stocks plunged a jaw-dropping 34% This was in 2020. It was like a flash crash. What happened to home prices then? They were up 1% just a little. So, are you beginning to see a pattern, or perhaps a lack of one here during 2022's inflation peak and Fed tightening bear market stocks fell 25 percent. Home prices they were up 4% during that time period, and then during the 2025 tariff sell-off, you might remember Trump called that Liberation Day. Stocks were down 19 percent. Home prices. were essentially unchanged.   Keith Weinhold  29:06   All right, so there they were: six major stock market downturns this century, not one housing crash. All right, now let's turn the telescope around because 2008 was different since the crash was real estate induced, and it is the only time in the life of you or I or anyone alive today, even a 90-year-old, where national home prices took a significant fall. In fact, they were down 27 percent, and it took them a few years to fall that much. All right. Well, what did stocks do during this period? They fell even more, down 57% more than twice as much, 57% I mean, just imagine having a million-dollar stock portfolio and seeing its value cave in, down to 430k from a million. Okay, that's what really happened march 6, 2009, when the S and P hit its global financial crisis low, and that happened over a 17 month stock collapse. Okay, so what's really the summary? It is that in the six times that stocks led a price crash this century. Real estate held up, or it rose, and the one time real estate led the crash, stocks fell more than twice as much.   Keith Weinhold  30:31   It was 27 %versus 57%. All right. Well, that is what's happened this century. But you know this cause and effect relationship or lack thereof, that didn't just begin happening in 2000. When we stretch the history back to 1980, which is Jimmy Carter, almost Ronald Reagan era days, stocks had four more big downturns. We had the Volcker Bear Market, the famous 1987 Black Monday stock market crash, the Gulf War sell-off, and the LTCM crisis. During those four stock crashes, home prices also either stayed resilient or they rose. All right. Well, all of this is because homes and stocks, you know, they just aren't connected by some push and pull relationship. Stocks reprice in seconds. Fear spreads. Algorithms sell, and billions of dollars can disappear before lunch. Instead, housing moves more like a cargo ship that you're trying to turn around in the Mississippi River, it can take a long time. Housing transactions take months. Prices depend on local supply and local incomes, and mortgage availability, and whether homeowners are actually forced to sell. Housing provides something that every human actually needs and cannot be easily disrupted by AI. I mean, AI still cannot download a three-bedroom house onto a vacant lot. And of course, during any stock crash, what else happens with real estate? Your rent just keeps coming in as well. So the bottom line here is we're learning from history rather than having a hunch again. Home prices don't react to stock market crashes. Stock crashes and housing downturns are different events.   Keith Weinhold  32:32   A falling stock market it can eventually weaken consumer confidence. In in a severe recession, some of that can trickle in and affect housing, but history shows that a stock crash alone has not caused national home prices to fall. When stocks scream, real estate just kind of shrugs. Now, as we get back to talking about today, with real estate being cash flow challenged, you usually need a deal in order to make the numbers work. And as we know, for more than two years now, it has been wise to buy new build property and have that home builder buy down your mortgage rate rather than getting a property price discount. And do you realize that it actually works out better for you in almost every case for you to get your rate bought down than it is to get a discount. Yeah, it is often substantially better. Let's just think about an example. Say you're putting a 20% down payment on a 300k property at a seven and a half percent mortgage rate. Okay, let's compare your seller discounting the purchase price by 20k versus them instead using 20k to buy down your mortgage rate. All right, in the first scenario, let's call it then a purchase price reduction. The seller reduces it from 300k down to 280k. Your monthly payment would be 1566 $1,566. All right. Well, then your monthly savings from the price discount would be $112. You would also need 4k less for the down payment. Okay, 112 bucks a month is helpful to you.   Keith Weinhold  34:18   That might buy you dinner for two at the Olive Garden or something, at a wildly overpriced airport convenience store. By the way, this is a bottle of water and one almond, 112 bucks. Okay, but now let's compare it with the second option. If instead of a price discount, you pay the full 300k and use the 20k as a seller credit, a credit from the seller, and you use that to permanently buy the mortgage rate from seven and a half down to five and a half percent. In this case, even though it's a larger amount financed, your monthly payment is no longer 1566. It's just 1363, so your monthly savings is no longer 112 bucks. That Olive Garden dinner for two, it is 315 bucks. So therefore, using the seller credit instead of reducing the purchase price that ups your monthly cash flow by about 203 bucks. All right, and this was just an illustration. It's not a universal lender rate sheet carved into a stone tablet. But the larger lesson remains. Okay, terms are often more important than price. Negotiate the financing. That is the lesson. And of course, you can try to use this most anywhere with any seller, but it's been especially popular with American home builders for two plus years now.   Keith Weinhold  35:47   The bottom line is that the best deal isn't always the property with the lowest price; it is the one with the best financing, and it's one of the strategies that Mid South Homebuyers is going to offer on Wednesday night's webinar just two days away, and there's no negotiation needed. They are offering this, and it's where I'm going to be appearing live, and you're invited to join us from the comfort of your home or a coffee shop or wherever you are. So we're talking about properties in Memphis, Little Rock, and North Texas. New build properties for as little as about 200k, and some fully renovated resale properties for as little as 150k, and even less than that. Now, low price isn't reason enough to own an income property, but it's the fact that you get a strong rent in a stable market to support that, and they're offering what they call their triple five terms. They'll buy your mortgage rate down into the fives and provide property management for just a 5% fee for five years. And I just learned that for attendees of Wednesday night's event, they will even announce a promo code there, and you will get triple five terms for life on both financed and cash deals.   Keith Weinhold  37:12   And you know, I've got to say that when I began in real estate investing, I wish that any of this would have existed. Like when I began, I wish there even would have been new build property available. They just didn't even have that for income property when I started out. And the fact that it's managed for you from day one, I didn't know about that when I started out. I thought I had to invest only in my home market and then manage it myself. And here you get investor advantaged geographic markets, and then if that's not enough, you get that rate buy down into the fives and property management costs. It's basically cut in half to help improve your property's cash flow, and you can almost think of this as lifetime cash flow. You get to control a sustainable business model that's resistant to AI disruption, and yeah, it's sustainable. I mean, people will pay you to live there. That has happened for centuries. It's sort of the opposite of a cryptocurrency that will not exist in two years. It happens Wednesday night. You'll get to see me live along with the renowned providers from Mid South Homebuyers and their properties and their generous incentives and all the new AI investment that's acting as a tailwind coming into Memphis. Registration is free at getricheducation.com/midsouth. It's 8p.m. Eastern on Wednesday night. I'll see you there, getricheduceducation.com/midsouth. Until next week, I'm your host Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your daydream.   Speaker 2  38:57   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal, or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial, or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.    Keith Weinhold  39:25   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Getricheduceducation.com  

Eighteen months after Liberation Day, we look at where Swiss watch exports stand. Shipments to the U.S. are down 8.3% year to date but still up 8.8% versus 2024. Mainland China is down 23% from two years ago. Global exports are still up 1.7%, carried by the UK, India, Europe and South America. The growth is coming from watches over $50,000, while the $1,000 to $10,000 middle of the market gets hollowed out. Collector taste is moving away from steel sports watches and toward dress watches, complications and handmade pieces. Rolex's new Padellone annual calendar is a business move. Starting at $59,000, it's another sign that Rolex wants to compete with Patek Philippe while Tudor handles Omega. We ask whether it will open buyers up to classical dress watches or stay inside the Rolex world, and which annual calendars we'd buy for the money instead. Then there's Breguet. Under CEO Gregory Kissling, the brand has made some of its best product in years: the new Classique tourbillons and updated Traditions. At the same time, it has cut dozens of U.S. retailers in 18 months and is moving to company-owned boutiques. Lange, AP and Rolex all made that shift from a position of strength. We look at how Swatch Group mismanaged Breguet for decades, why the Hayeks are still involved, what happens to longtime Breguet clients when their dealer disappears, and what we'd do differently if we ran the brand. Openwork is a weekly podcast about how the watch industry actually works. An unfiltered look behind the scenes — no press releases, no hype, and no sponsored takes. Hosted by Asher Rapkin and Gabe Reilly, co-founders of Collective Horology. Available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Music, or wherever you get your podcasts. You can find us online at collectivehorology.com. To get in touch with suggestions, feedback or questions, email podcast@collectivehorology.com.

In March 2025, Apple chartered cargo flights to deliver 600 tonnes of iPhones from India to the United States. A year earlier, four in five smartphones that imported to the US came from China. One of the aims of US trade policy has been to decouple the US economy from China. So is the strategy working? Chad Bown (PIIE, CEPR) tells Tim Phillips how he examined the US import data product by product to see how American importers coped with Trump's second trade war. In consumer electronics, many firms quietly built a second supply chain in tariff-exempt countries before 2025, and switched sourcing away from China almost overnight in 2025. But clothing and footwear did not switch, because alternative source countries like Vietnam faced tariffs almost as high. When the US taxes imports from every country, the decoupling strategy gets lost.The research behind this episode:Bown, Chad P. 2026. "How Did Trump's 2025 Trade War Affect the Decoupling of US-China Supply Chains?" CEPR Discussion Paper DP21801 (gated). Forthcoming in Asian Economic Policy Review. To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Chad P. Bown. 2026. "Decoupling from China after Trump's Trade Wars." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).About the guestChad P. Bown is the Reginald Jones Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a Fellow in the International Trade and Regional Economics programme of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. He was chief economist at the US Department of State from January 2024 to January 2025, and senior economist for international trade and investment on President Obama's Council of Economic Advisers. His research spans trade policy, industrial policy, economic security and supply chains. He co-created the Trade Talks podcast with Soumaya Keynes in 2017, and with Keynes he is co-author of How to Win a Trade War (Simon & Schuster, 2026).Research cited in this episodeThe 2018-19 Section 301 tariffs. In Trump's first term the US imposed tariffs on imports from China in stages, on product lists set under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Lists 1, 2 and 3, mostly intermediate inputs such as auto parts, ended at 25%. List 4A began at 15% and was cut to 7.5% in February 2020 under the Phase One agreement. List 4B, mostly consumer goods such as smartphones, laptops and toys, was delayed "for Christmas season" and never imposed. By the end of the first trade war, roughly two thirds of US imports from China faced new tariffs. Bown's point is that the goods spared in 2018-19 were the ones hit hardest in 2025.The 2025 IEEPA tariffs on China. In February and March 2025, before Liberation Day, the US imposed two rounds of 10% tariffs on all imports from China under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, justified by concerns over fentanyl. For the first time this covered smartphones and other List 4B goods. One of the two was removed in November 2025 after Presidents Trump and Xi met in South Korea.Liberation Day. On 2 April 2025 the US announced tariffs on most of its trading partners, at rates that varied by country. A long list of products, including smartphones, was exempt under Annex II. On 9 April the country rates were paused and a 10% baseline applied while countries negotiated. China's rates escalated after retaliation on both sides; the Liberation Day actions on China alone reached 125% before a truce in Geneva in May. The exemptions matter to the episode. A tariff on China changes sourcing only if the alternatives face a lower one.The August 2025 tariffs on India. The US raised tariffs on India by a further 25 percentage points in August 2025, citing India's purchases of Russian oil. Smartphones were again exempt, so Apple's Indian supply chain stayed tariff free. For some clothing, India ended up facing a larger tariff increase than China.The Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariffs. On 20 February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled that the country-level tariffs imposed under IEEPA were illegal. The Section 232 sectoral tariffs and the Section 301 tariffs on China were not part of the case. The administration removed the IEEPA tariffs and began imposing new ones under other legal authorities, which is why Bown warns that some of the 2025 effects may yet reverse.Apple's alternative supply chain in India. Apple and its contract manufacturers, including Foxconn and Tata Electronics, spent several years building iPhone assembly in India. Patrick McGee tells the story in Apple in China: The Capture of the World's Greatest Company (Simon & Schuster, 2026). Over the last nine months of 2025, 40% of US smartphone imports came from China and 46% from India. Laptops, monitors and video game consoles moved in a similar way, mostly to Vietnam.Inputs for AI. The paper defines AI inputs using the product codes that Nvidia publishes for export control compliance: certain semiconductors, printed circuit boards, servers and other data centre hardware. These made up about 14% of US imports in 2025. They grew by $183 billion that year, more than the $144 billion rise in total US goods imports. A separate classification by Michael Waugh (2026) finds a larger share, at 23%.US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. In 2024 the Biden administration raised US tariffs on electric vehicles from China to 100%, using the authority of the 2018 Section 301 action. China exported 40% of the world's electric vehicles in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency, but almost none to the United States.China's export restrictions on rare earths. In April 2025 China restricted exports of rare earths and permanent magnets, of which it produces about 90% of world supply. Bown did not include these products in the paper, but they are the reverse of the decoupling story. They are goods for which the US found no alternative supplier.Tariff pass-through to consumer prices. Bown suggests that firms with an alternative supplier may explain why some prices, such as the iPhone's, did not rise. He points to work by Alberto Cavallo, Paola Llamas and Franco Vazquez (2025), "Tracking the Short-Run Price Impact of U.S. Tariffs," NBER Working Paper 34496, which tracks how the 2025 tariffs reached retail prices.How to Win a Trade War. Soumaya Keynes and Chad P. Bown. 2026. How to Win a Trade War: An Optimistic Guide to an Anxious Global Economy. New York: Simon & Schuster. The authors argue that the conflict with China will not reverse, and that other economies are now dealing with China-related shocks of their own.More VoxTalks Economics episodesMaking sense of the US-China trade war, in which Bown explained the first trade war in 2021, as it ended. It is the "before" to this episode's "after".Tariff Confusion, in which Kalina Manova explains how the frequency of tariff announcements in 2025 cut trade by more than the tariffs themselves.Related reading on VoxEU.orgUS-China decoupling: Rhetoric and reality, a VoxEU column showing that after the first trade war US imports from China slowed, but supply chains for strategic products stayed intertwined with China.What comes next for global supply chains might be complicated, a VoxEU column on why a falling Chinese share of US imports does not mean Chinese firms have left the supply chain.Tariff confusion, a VoxEU column by Kalina Manova, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson and Aaron Tang on how confusion about current US tariffs reduced trade in 2025.

Courtney Gains joins RadioBypass!You may know Courtney Gains from an extensive acting career that includes Children of the Corn, Back to the Future, Can't Buy Me Love, The 'Burbs, Memphis Belle and many more films and television appearances. But Courtney also has a long history as a musician, singer, songwriter and guitarist — and that's the side of his story we're exploring on RadioBypass.Courtney joins us to talk about his musical journey, from his early days in the Los Angeles music scene through the different projects and collaborations that have helped shape him as an artist.We also dig into his brand-new album, Liberation Day, the stories and inspiration behind the music, and where Courtney is headed next.Along the way, Courtney shares stories about the beginnings of both his acting and musical careers, the relationship between those two creative worlds, and a life spent making music while building a career that most people know from the screen.And stick around after the conversation because we're going to hear two songs from Liberation Day! First up is “Slip Away,” personally selected by Courtney for RadioBypass listeners, followed by the album's title track, “Liberation Day.”If you know Courtney Gains the actor, here's your chance to discover Courtney Gains the musician — and hear the music for yourself.???? Discover new music. Support great artists. Keep Rock Alive!RadioBypass — Rock and Roll music that DESERVES to be heard.#CourtneyGains #LiberationDay #RadioBypass #RockAndRoll #NewMusic #MusicInterview

In April 2025, the bond market did something the stock market couldn't: it made a sitting president reverse course within days. Financial Times journalist Robin Wigglesworth, author of the new book A Fabulous Debt, joins Joe and OG to explain why bonds, dismissed for centuries as the dull corner of finance, are actually the bedrock everything else sits on. From a murdered medieval ruler in Venice to a Scottish con man who sold bonds for a country that didn't exist to the hedge fund collapse that nearly took down the global financial system, this is 900 years of history explaining exactly why the "boring" market is the one that actually moves empires.What You'll Walk Away WithWhy the bond market, not the stock market, is what actually forced a change of course during 2025's "Liberation Day" tariff chaosThe surprisingly wild origin story of the very first government bond, issued in 1171 Venice, and how it got its ruler killedHow the Dutch turned Venice's basic invention into a true market, and used it to fund their independence from a much larger empireThe incredible true story of a con man who sold real bonds for a fictional country and lured hundreds of settlers to their deathsWhy Long-Term Capital Management, staffed with Nobel laureates and legendary traders, collapsed almost overnight in 1998The biggest misconception most Americans have about U.S. government debt, and why the reality is more nuanced than the doom headlines suggestWhy the oldest investing mistake in 900 years of financial history is still the simplest one: borrowing too muchWhy This Matters NowMost people never think about bonds until something breaks, a rate spike, a market scare, a headline about the national debt, and by then it can feel too complicated to catch up on. But bonds quietly determine mortgage rates, corporate borrowing costs, and government policy in ways that touch daily life far more than most people realize. Understanding even the basics of how this market works, and how consistently it has shaped history, turns a vague sense of unease about "the economy" into something you can actually follow and make sense of.From the BasementA Bond-adjacent trivia detour (the James Bond kind, not the financial kind) reveals that Ian Fleming borrowed his spy's name from a real-life ornithologist, proof that even a show about medieval Venetian debt can't resist a pun. Plus, a Wall Street Journal headline on why the job market has quietly flipped in favor of workers without a college degree.Resources MentionedA Fabulous Debt by Robin Wigglesworth — Robin's new book on the 900-year history of bondsTrillions by Robin Wigglesworth — Robin's earlier book on the history of index fundsStacking Benjamins Field Kit — the all-in-one budgeting and net worth tracking toolSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Children of the Corn continues to be a Stephen King staple after all these years so it's fitting that the Kingcast boys get a chance to corner actor and musician Courtney Gains to talk about his experiences playing the red-headed, scythe-wielding, teenage rapscallion Malachai.Of course we also talk about some of his other endeavors as well, from his latest album, Liberation Day (available now), to his memorable turn as one of the mysterious Klopeks in Joe Dante's The 'Burbs. Courtney was never less than open about his career experiences, good and bad, and the result is this fun chat with an actual cornboy. Also, make sure to stick around at the end for an exclusive listen to a track from Courtney's new album!

Houve quem comprasse a tese de que após o famigerado Liberation Day, os EUA teriam remodelado o comércio global. Os dados contam uma história completamente diferente.FONTES QUE EMBASAM O EPISÓDIO:Forbes Brasil: Sobretaxado, Brasil volta à mesa com EUA após recorde de exportações e novos fregueses - https://forbes.com.br/forbes-money/2026/08/diversificacao-exportacoes-brasil-tarifaco-eua/ WSJ: The country that has the biggest trade surplus with the U.S. is now… Vietnam - https://www.wsj.com/world/the-country-that-has-the-biggest-trade-surplus-with-the-u-s-is-now-vietnam-0169b5cd Reuters: China shock 2.0 reshuffles winners and losers - https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/china-shock-20-reshuffles-winners-losers-manishi-raychaudhuri-2026-08-09/ Spotify: LIBERATION DAY no TerraçoCast #466 - https://open.spotify.com/episode/23Elh19xCZzcMvUXoOTats?si=burJiNwxRVWyaa-qGyaFGQ BBC: Canada welcomes EU proposal to become ‘associate member' - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwly7vkke4jxo The Telegraph: Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish leaders meet to plan break-up of United Kingdom - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/09/13/irish-scots-and-welsh-leaders-meet-to-plot-break-up-uk/ 

When Donald Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs in April last year, one question seemed to dominate: which country would suffer the most economic pain? But since then, one country after the next seems to have awoken to a starkly hopeful realisation: the United States accounts for only 15 per cent of total global imports and trade. So, could these countries join a newly powerful trading bloc? Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher on recent moves by Canada to possibly join the European Union, and if Australia could follow suit. Background reading: Euro-vision: Could Australia join the European Union? One key minister is open to it The Morning Edition brings you the story behind the story with the best journalists in Australia. Join host Samantha Selinger-Morris, from the newsrooms of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, weekdays from 5am. If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear more, rate, review and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, YouTube or whichever platform you find your podcasts.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When Donald Trump announced his so-called Liberation Day tariffs in April last year, one question seemed to dominate: which country would suffer the most economic pain? But since then, one country after the next seems to have awoken to a starkly hopeful realisation: the United States accounts for only 15 per cent of total global imports and trade. So, could these countries join a newly powerful trading bloc? Today, international and political editor Peter Hartcher on recent moves by Canada to possibly join the European Union, and if Australia could follow suit. Background reading: Euro-vision: Could Australia join the European Union? One key minister is open to it The Morning Edition brings you the story behind the story with the best journalists in Australia. Join host Samantha Selinger-Morris, from the newsrooms of The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, weekdays from 5am. If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear more, rate, review and subscribe on Apple, Spotify, YouTube or whichever platform you find your podcasts.Subscribe to The Age & SMH: https://subscribe.smh.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us Fan MailIn this episode of our Future of Trade series,  EACCNY Member Ian Hunter, Managing Director, North America, OCO Global and Yvonne Bendinger-Rothschild, Executive Director of the EACCNY discuss the way Liberation Day reshaped investment patterns within the United States and into it. Thank you for listening! Please be sure to check us out at www.eaccny.com or email membership@eaccny.com to learn more!

And it came to pass at midnight that the Lord struck all the firstborn in the land of Egypt, from the firstborn of Pharaoh who sat on his throne to the firstborn of the captive who was in the dungeon, and all the firstborn of livestock. [1 hour 4 minutes]

U.S. Air Force Col. Matt Galloway, deputy wing commander for the 36th Wing, gives remarks for Guam's 82nd Liberation Day on Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, July 16, 2026. The annual holiday is the island's largest and most significant celebration, observed every July 21 to commemorate the day in 1944 when U.S. forces landed on the island, ending the 31-month occupation by Imperial Japanese forces during World War II (U.S. Air Force video by Staff Sgt. Michael Jones)

April 2025: Liberation Day. President Trump announces sweeping new tariffs. And then, the dollar did something a safe haven currency is not supposed to do: it fell.Tarek Hassan (Boston University, CEPR), working with Thomas Mertens, Jingye Wang and Tony Zhang, has been investigating what makes a currency the global anchor. Being the world's biggest economy helps, but what really matters is how far an economy's shocks affect world prices. Tariffs reduce this effect. But are we near a tipping point, when the euro takes over as the global reserve currency? We might be closer than you think and, if a change happens, it might happen more quickly than you think too.This is the third of four episodes drawn from papers commissioned for the second Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues conference, held in Venice on 19 and 20 June 2026 and organised by CEPR, CESifo and Sciences Po.The research behind this episode:Hassan, Tarek A., Thomas M. Mertens, Jingye Wang, and Tony Zhang. 2026. "Openness, Integration, and the International Monetary Order." Conference draft, presented at the 2nd Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues Conference, Venice, 19 to 20 June 2026. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Tarek A. Hassan. 2026. "The Dollar Anchor Is Slipping." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).About the guestTarek A. Hassan is Professor of Economics at Boston University, a Research Fellow of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research. His research spans international finance, macro-finance, and the political economy of growth, from measuring firm-level political risk with large language models to, in this paper, the size and openness that decide which currency the world treats as safe.Research cited in this episodeLiberation Day and the April 2025 tariffs. On 2 April 2025, the White House announced a sweeping set of import tariffs. Hassan and his co-authors treat the market reaction to that announcement, in which the dollar fell even as US interest rates rose and US stocks underperformed, as the anomaly their model is built to explain; a currency behaving that way in a crisis usually counts as risky, not safe. CEPR has gathered further commentary on the announcement and its aftermath on its Trump and Tariffs page.Exorbitant privilege. A term coined in the 1960s for the advantage the United States gets from issuing the world's reserve currency, since foreign investors will hold dollar assets at a lower return than they would demand elsewhere. Hassan uses it to explain why Americans can borrow more cheaply than almost anyone else, and why losing anchor status would raise the US government's own borrowing costs.Effective size. The paper's central idea. It is not simply how big an economy is, but how much weight its shocks carry in setting world prices, which depends on both actual size and openness to trade and capital flows. Tariffs and capital controls both reduce a country's effective size without touching its GDP, which is how they can knock a currency out of contention as a global anchor.The Budget Lab at Yale's tariff tracker. The paper draws its estimate that the current average tariff on US imports and exports, once retaliation is included, runs at around 12% from The Budget Lab at Yale (2025), Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All US Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2, a running assessment of US trade policy maintained by the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale.Ilzetzki, Reinhart, and Rogoff's exchange rate classification. Ilzetzki, Reinhart, and Rogoff. 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor Will Hold?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 134 (2). This dataset classifies the de facto exchange rate regime of 141 economies. Hassan and his co-authors use it to calibrate their model and to show that the share of countries pegging tightly to the dollar falls with country size almost exactly as their theory predicts.The Chinn-Ito index of capital account openness. Chinn, Menzie D., and Hiro Ito. 2006. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions." Journal of Development Economics 81 (1): 163 to 192. This widely used index scores how open a country's capital account is to cross-border investment. China scores close to the bottom, in the same range as India, Russia, Brazil and Pakistan, while the United States and the eurozone score close to the maximum, which is central to why Hassan treats the renminbi as a non-contender for anchor status while capital controls remain in place.More VoxTalks Economics episodesTariffs, Uncertainty, and the Exchange Rate, the first episode in this series, in which Alfonso Merendino and Tommaso Monacelli offer another explanation of why the dollar fell rather than rose after the 2025 tariffs.How Exchange Rates Responded to Tariffs, in which Giancarlo Corsetti also tells Tim Phillips what happened to the dollar after Liberation Day, and why the textbook response did not show up.Related reading on VoxEU.orgTariffs and US Dollar Depreciations: Not So Surprising After All, a VoxEU column in which Giancarlo Corsetti, Simon Lloyd and Daniel Ostry argue that the dollar's fall after Liberation Day looks less puzzling once expected retaliation and long run risk are taken into account.Tariffs, Global Imbalances, and the Dollar, in which Oleg Itskhoki and Dmitry Mukhin examine whether tariffs aimed at shrinking the US trade deficit can actually work, and what trying would mean for the dollar.

Courtney Gains (Children of the Corn, Can't Buy Me Love, The Burbs) comes to $2 Late Fee to discuss his new album (Liberation Day), reminisce on his movie career, and more! Courtney Gains is a household name due to standout performances in movies like Colors & Can't Buy Me Love, as well as cult favorites like Hardbodies & Winners Take All!! But did you know he's a talented singer songwriter too? In this interview, Courtney talks about his record Liberation Day and the motivation behind it, his new movie Barn III, digs deep into his filmography, & more! Enjoy!  Check out Courtney Gains album Liberation Day here! Also check out Courtney's instagram and Facebook for news and updates! As mentioned in the episode, check out the amazing Facebook page dedicated to Courtney's film Winners Take All here! Dig the show? Please consider supporting $2 Late Fee on Patreon for tons of bonus content (like Tales From The Video Store)! Link is below: Two Dollar Late Fee: ⁠www.patreon.com/twodollarlatefee⁠ Please follow/subscribe and rate us on Spotify and Apple Podcasts! Apple Podcasts: ⁠podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/two-dollar-late-fee⁠ Spotify: ⁠open.spotify.com/show/⁠ Instagram: ⁠@twodollarlatefee⁠ Subscribe to our ⁠YouTube⁠ Check out Jim Walker's intro/outro music on Bandcamp: ⁠jvamusic1.bandcamp.com⁠ Facebook: ⁠facebook.com/Two-Dollar-Late-Fee-Podcast⁠ Merch:⁠ https://www.teepublic.com/user/two-dollar-late-fee⁠ IMDB: ⁠https://www.imdb.com⁠ Two Dollar Late Fee is a part of the nutritious ⁠Geekscape Network⁠ Every episode is produced, edited, and coddled by Zak Shaffer (⁠@zakshaffer⁠) & Dustin Rubin (⁠@dustinrubinvo⁠) You can watch the entire interview on our YouTube channel here. Don't forget to like & subscribe!You can listen & NOW watch on Spotify here. Don't forget to like & subscribe! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Textbook economics says a tariff should strengthen a country's currency. Since the start of 2025, as US tariffs rose ... and the dollar fell.In the first of four episodes of Voxtalks based on papers presented at the second Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues conference, Alfonso Merendino (Bocconi University) and Tommaso Monacelli (Bocconi University, CEPR) tell Tim Phillips what they found when they looked for reasons. Their conclusion: for tariffs, it's not size, it is how permanent people expect it to be. They call this structural trade policy uncertainty. When that uncertainty is low, a tariff behaves exactly as the textbook says. When it's high, the same tariff can weaken the currency, shrink output and pull down inflation instead.The research behind this episode:Merendino, Alfonso, and Tommaso Monacelli. 2026. "Tariffs, Uncertainty, and the Exchange Rate." Conference draft, presented at the 2nd Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues Conference, Venice, 19-20 June 2026. Forthcoming in Economic Policy.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, Tommaso Monacelli, and Alfonso Merendino. 2026. "Tariffs, Uncertainty, and the Exchange Rate." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).About the guestsTommaso Monacelli is Professor of Economics at Bocconi University and a Research Fellow of IGIER Bocconi and CEPR. His research spans international macroeconomics, monetary policy and the business cycle, with recent work on tariffs and monetary policy, supply chain uncertainty and inflation, and heterogeneous bank models of monetary transmission. He is co-editor of the Journal of International Economics and was managing co-editor of Economic Policy from 2016 to 2021.Alfonso Merendino is a PhD student in Economics at Yale University and a Research Fellow at the Social Economics Lab. He recently completed a research placement in macroeconomic modelling at the European Central Bank, and holds a Bachelor's and Master's degree in Economics from Bocconi University, where this paper was written.Research cited in this episodeStructural trade-policy uncertainty (S-TPU). The paper's central measure, capturing uncertainty not about the size of a tariff but about how persistent the trade-policy regime behind it will be. Merendino and Monacelli split observed US tariff rates from 1990 to 2025 into a persistent component and a short-lived transitory one, using a state-space model with separate volatility for each, and define S-TPU as the volatility of the persistent component.The 2017 US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. The authors' example of a pure S-TPU shock. The withdrawal changed no tariff rate on impact, but it reshuffled expectations about the durability of US trade policy, and their index of structural uncertainty spikes at this point."Liberation Day" tariffs, April 2025. The sweeping tariff package announced by the Trump administration on 2 April 2025. The paper treats this, alongside the 2018 Section 301 tariffs on China, as one of two clearly identified tariff shocks used to anchor its statistical model.Aggregate trade-policy uncertainty index. Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo. 2020. "The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty." Journal of Monetary Economics 109: 38-59. This newspaper-based index of trade-policy uncertainty mixes announcement noise with genuine regime change; Merendino and Monacelli show that conditioning on it, rather than on their narrower S-TPU measure, erases the state-dependent pattern they document.Narrative-dominance identification. The technique the authors use to isolate tariff shocks in their statistical model, adapted from Juan Antolín-Díaz and Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez. 2018. "Narrative Sign Restrictions for SVARs." American Economic Review 108 (10). Rather than imposing a full statistical model, the method anchors identification to a small number of clearly documented policy events, such as the 2018 and 2025 tariff rounds, and lets everything else, including the sign of the exchange-rate response, be estimated freely from the data.More VoxTalks Economics episodesThe second Economic Policy: Papers on European and Global Issues conference follows the first, held in Paris in December 2025. Three earlier VoxTalks Economics episodes from that Paris conference asked what comes next for Ukraine's economy.What's next for Ukraine: Investment, in which Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Maurice Obstfeld argue that forgiving Ukraine's war debt, rather than treating it as an obstacle, is essential to attracting the $40 billion a year that reconstruction needs.What's next for Ukraine: Reconstruction, in which Edward Glaeser, Martina Kirchberger, and Andrii Parkhomenko argue that postwar Tokyo, not Warsaw or Berlin, is the right model for rebuilding Ukraine's cities.What's next for Ukraine: The labour market, in which Giacomo Anastasia documents the surprising resilience of Ukraine's wartime labour market.Related reading on VoxEUTariffs and US dollar depreciations: Not so surprising after all, a VoxEU column in which Giancarlo Corsetti, Simon Lloyd, and Daniel Ostry argue that the dollar's fall after Liberation Day is explained by foreign retaliation, a different mechanism from the persistence channel that Merendino and Monacelli identify.Tariffs, the dollar, and equities: High-frequency evidence from the Liberation Day announcement, in which Jonathan Hartley and Alessandro Rebucci show that the dollar depreciated on impact on 2 April 2025, against the standard prediction, and trace this to foreign investors rebalancing away from US equities.

진행자: 홍유, Tannith KrielAhn Ha-young debate: Why does a Korean actor's family history still matter?기사 요약: 배우 안하영이 방송에서 "4대째 의사 집안"이라며 언급한 증조부가 일제강점기 친일 단체 대정친목회 평의원 안상호로 지목되면서 광복절을 앞두고 논란이 확산되자, 전문가들은 대중이 문제 삼은 것은 조상의 행적 자체보다 후손이 그 역사를 어떻게 인식하고 언급하는지라고 분석했다.[1] Ahn Ha-young's rising career has hit a major roadblock after comments about her family history sparked backlash over allegations that her great-grandfather was linked to Japan's colonial rule of Korea, just days before Liberation Day on Aug. 15.hit a roadblock: 난관에 부딪히다spark backlash: 반발을 촉발하다[2] The uproar has revived the debate over whether descendants should be held accountable for their ancestors' actions — with experts stating the Korean public increasingly places more weight on how descendants conduct themselves today than on their lineage alone.revive the debate: 논쟁에 다시 불을 붙이다hold A accountable for B: A에게 B의 책임을 묻다lineage: 혈통, 가계[3] The issue at hand emerged during Ahn's promotional campaign for "Our Sticky Love," Netflix Korea's highly anticipated romantic comedy, which premiered globally last week.at hand: 당면한, 가까이에 있는[4] Ahn, who made her acting debut in 2019, has spent much of her career in supporting roles, appearing in projects including the hit series "The Trauma Code: Heroes on Call" and "Doona!" "Our Sticky Love" marks one of her first major leading projects.supporting role: 조연[5] At a time when Ahn was gaining prominence, her mentions of her family background on several television programs resurfaced, with one of the most recent examples being her Aug. 7 appearance on KBS' variety show "Problem Child in House." During the show, Ahn said her great-grandfather had opened a Western-style clinic in Hanyang (Seoul's former name) and treated Emperor Gojong. She added that her grandfather, father and older sister are doctors, making hers a four-generation family of doctors.to gain prominence: 주목받게 되다, 부상하다[6] Although Ahn did not identify her great-grandfather by name during the broadcast, online speculation soon pointed to Ahn Sang-ho, a doctor who practiced during Japan's colonial rule of Korea.to identify (someone) by name: 이름을 밝히다, 실명을 거론하다speculation: 추측기사원문: https://www.koreaherald.com/article/10839083

Are Treasury yields still sending investors a reliable signal about inflation, growth, and Federal Reserve policy, or is the massive basis trade distorting the message? Lance Roberts explains how the basis trade works, why it matters for Treasury yields, and whether investors can still trust the bond market as an economic and market signal. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - Kevin Warsh + Nvidia Report = Volatility? 5:28 - Market Deviations & Bollinger Bands 13:07 - The Basis Trade & Interest Rates 16:17 - What is a Basis Point? 21:31 - Are Interest Rates Really Telling us What's Going on in Markets? 22:42 - What's the Risk/What Happens When Basis Trade Unwinds? 26:47 - Does Kevin Warsh have Enough Time to Fix It? 28:28 - What Happened on Liberation Day 29:39 - What to Do About It 34:29 - The Psychology of Buyers & Sellers: The Houston Housing Market 37:85 - The Index is the Index Hosted by RIA Advisors' Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/UtY2oV1kkXc ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The Basis Trade: Is The Bond Market Signal Distorted?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-basis-trade-is-the-bond-market-signal-distorted/ "Investor Psychology Is Sabotaging Your Returns (Chapter 2 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/investor-psychology-is-sabotaging-your-returns-chapter-2-of-5/ "Think Like An Investor, Not A Speculator (Chapter 1 of 5)" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/think-like-an-investor-chapter-1-of-5/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" report, "Bollinger Bands Are Flashing a Warning," https://youtu.be/HA5OZbl3a4Y ------- Watch our previous show, "The Best Retirement Head Start for Your Kids," https://youtube.com/live/IqyxMopn1Uw?feature=share ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "The Smart Way to Pay for College," Thursday, September 3, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/mcE7YgphgMns --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #BollingerBands #Investing #MarketOutlook #PortfolioManagement #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #BasisTrade #FederalReserve

A simple country masturbator (Jason Newland) tags in for Tim and we discuss some recent and historical issues surrounding East Asia, more specifically the Republic of Samsung (South Korea). Celebrate the liberation from Imperial Japan, sure, excellent, but why not extend this to more recent colonizers? Shoutout to small but important Korean anti-imperialist groups like Nodutdol. Before all that, we revisit some old ideas about how to deal with climate catastrophe; encourage the destruction of Flock property (especially on Halloween); Randy Fine looks like Itamar Ben-Gvir ate his own twin made of swollen tumors and sadism, and his little sausage fingers can't help defend themselves from antisemitic mailboxes; heed those cautious optimism warnings about the wave of DSA insurgency; controversial tweet:My DonaldTrumpish friend saw a sign that said FREE PARKING and panicked that it said DONALD TRUMP IS A SYPHILITIC PEDOPHILE WHO BLEW BILL CLINTON.The Donalds are tiiiiiiiired.Recorded on Friday, August 21st, 2569 B.E. around 11.00AM Korea Standard Time. Commiserate on Discord: discord.gg/aDf4Yv9PrYNever Forget: standwithdanielhale.orgGenral RecommendationsJosh's Recommendation: Tires (Season 3)Jason's Recommendations: 1) My Name 2) Tenmaku no JaadugarFurther Reading, Viewing, ListeningShow notes + Full list of links, sources, etcEternal thanks to Rm Brown ("King of the Soundboard")More From Timothy Robert BuechnerPodcast: Q&T ARE / violentpeople.co Tweets: @ROHDUTCHLocationless Locationsheatdeathpod.comEvery show-related link is corralled and available here.Twitter: @heatdeathpodPlease send all Letters of Derision, Indifference, Inquiry, Mild Elation, et cetera to: heatdeathoftheuniversepodcast@gmail.comSend us Fan MailSupport the showSupport: patreon / buzzsprout

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities sits down with Shan Husain in FI FX Sales to discuss the fallout for the US dollar following the US Treasury announcement of increase UST bond buybacks on Wednesday. The dollar drop over the four weeks covering Japan/US FX intervention is the largest since the period following the Liberation Day announcements last year. Washington policy has again undermined confidence and depressing bond yields brings USD downside risks. However, it might not be one-way traffic given the US-iran risk persists and higher energy prices could discourage foreign currency buying.

Courtney Gains joins us to talk his classic career such as The Children o the Corn, The Burbs the new Barn 3 at festivals now and his upcoming 10-song solo album Liberation Day!Join Nasty Neal, Terrible Troy and Tara Hutchison with the horror icon Courtney Gains!#WithoutyourHead #CourtneyGains #Theburbs #HorrorMovies #ChildrenOfTheCorn #Thebarn3 #nastyNeal

Fluent Fiction - Korean: Stolen Heirloom: A Tale of Family, Forgiveness and Unity Find the full episode transcript, vocabulary words, and more:fluentfiction.com/ko/episode/2026-08-20-22-34-01-ko Story Transcript:Ko: 서울의 한 경찰서에서는 바쁜 하루가 한창 진행 중이었다.En: One busy day was in full swing at a police station in Seoul.Ko: 창문 밖으로 학교 학생들이 해방절을 맞아 태극기를 흔들며 지나가고 있었다.En: Outside the window, school students were passing by, waving the Taegeukgi to celebrate Liberation Day.Ko: 경찰서 안에서는 대화가 좀처럼 끊이지 않았다.En: Inside the police station, conversations never seemed to stop.Ko: 그곳에 서 있는 수진은 걱정으로 가득 차 있었다.En: Standing there, Sujin was filled with worry.Ko: “어떻게 도와드릴까요?” 젊은 경찰관이 물었다.En: "How may I help you?" a young police officer asked.Ko: 수진은 조심스럽게 대답했다. “가족의 중요한 유산 목걸이가 도난당했어요.En: Sujin answered cautiously, "A very important heirloom necklace of our family has been stolen.Ko: 할머니가 돌아가시기 전에 항상 그 목걸이를 자랑스러워하셨어요.En: My grandmother always proudly wore it before she passed away.Ko: 이번 가족 모임에서 목걸이를 가져오고 싶어요.”En: I want to bring it to our family gathering this time."Ko: 경찰관은 친절하게 미소 지으며 “어디서 도난당했는지 아시나요?”라고 물었다.En: The officer kindly smiled and asked, “Do you know where it was stolen from?”Ko: “집에서 사라졌어요. 친구와 친척들이 집에 왔을 때였어요.”En: "It disappeared from home. It was when friends and relatives came over."Ko: 수진은 한숨을 쉬며 말했다. “제가 직접 조사를 하고 있어요.”En: Sujin said with a sigh. “I am conducting my own investigation.”Ko: 그 후 수진은 목걸이를 찾기 위해 친구와 가족을 직접 만나기 시작했다.En: After that, Sujin started to personally meet with friends and family to find the necklace.Ko: 모두가 안타까움을 표했지만, 별다른 단서를 제공하지 못했다.En: Everyone expressed regret but couldn't provide any concrete clues.Ko: 그때 우연히, 수진은 해방절 모임에서 찍은 사진을 발견했다.En: Then, by chance, she stumbled upon a photo taken at the Liberation Day gathering.Ko: 사진 속에서 그녀의 먼 사촌 진아가 목걸이를 착용하고 있었다.En: In the photo, her distant cousin Jina was wearing the necklace.Ko: 수진은 결심했다. 진아를 만나야 한다.En: Sujin made up her mind. She needed to meet Jina.Ko: 오래된 정원이 있는 조용한 작은 마당에서 진아를 만난 수진은 조심스럽게 다가갔다.En: She carefully approached Jina, whom she met in a quiet small yard with an old garden.Ko: “진아야, 그 목걸이 네가 가진 거 아냐?” 수진은 슬픔과 조심스러운 희망이 섞인 목소리로 물었다.En: "Jina, isn't that necklace with you?" Sujin asked with a voice mixed with sadness and cautious hope.Ko: 진아는 잠시 망설이다가 말을 꺼냈다. “미안해. 멋지다고 생각해서 잠시 빌렸어.En: After a moment of hesitation, Jina spoke up. "I'm sorry. I borrowed it for a bit because I thought it was beautiful.Ko: 늘 가족 모임에서 나는 아무 존재감이 없는 것 같아서 그랬어.”En: I always felt invisible at family gatherings."Ko: 그 말을 듣고 수진의 마음은 복잡하게 요동쳤다. 그녀는 진아의 외로움을 이해했다.En: Hearing this, Sujin's heart stirred with complex emotions. She understood Jina's loneliness.Ko: “함께 해보자.” 수진은 부드럽게 말했다. “우리 둘이 같이 목걸이를 가족 앞에 보여주자.En: "Let's do this together," Sujin gently said. "Let's both show the necklace to the family.Ko: 할머니도 아마 기뻐하실 거야.”En: Grandma would probably be happy."Ko: 진아는 놀라며 눈을 반짝였다. “정말?”En: Jina looked surprised, her eyes sparkling. "Really?"Ko: 수진은 고개를 끄덕이며 말했다. “가족은 함께할 때 빛나는 거니까.”En: Sujin nodded and said, "Family shines the brightest when we're together."Ko: 해방절 모임 날, 두 사촌은 목걸이를 가지고 식장에 들어섰다.En: On the day of the Liberation Day gathering, the two cousins entered the venue with the necklace.Ko: 주변 사람들에게 목걸이를 보여주며 둘은 할머니의 이야기를 나누고, 그 순간의 중요함을 모두 함께 나눴다.En: Showing the necklace to those around them, they shared stories of their grandmother and the significance of the moment with everyone.Ko: 그날 수진은 다른 무엇보다도 가족의 유대감이 중요하다는 것을 깨달았다.En: That day, Sujin realized that more than anything, the bond of family was what mattered.Ko: 목걸이는 돌아왔고, 가족은 더욱 끈끈해졌다.En: The necklace was returned, and the family grew closer.Ko: 여름의 열기 속, 두 사촌은 서로에게 따뜻한 미소를 지으며 다짐했다. “함께 한다는 것이 가장 큰 의미다.”En: Amidst the summer heat, the two cousins exchanged warm smiles, pledging to each other, "Being together is what truly matters." Vocabulary Words:heirloom: 유산necklace: 목걸이stolen: 도난당한proudly: 자랑스럽게cautiously: 조심스럽게disappeared: 사라졌다conducting: 진행하다investigation: 조사stumbled upon: 발견했다distant: 먼hesitation: 망설임invisible: 존재감 없는complex: 복잡한emotions: 감정loneliness: 외로움sparkling: 반짝이는venue: 식장significance: 중요성bond: 유대감pledging: 다짐하다full swing: 한창worry: 걱정conduct: 진행하다regret: 안타까움concrete: 구체적인clues: 단서approached: 다가갔다stirred: 요동쳤다together: 함께shines: 빛나는

Send us Fan MailIn this episode, we're joined by legendary actor and musician Courtney Gains, best known to horror fans as Malachai in Children of the Corn, along with memorable roles in Back to the Future, and The 'Burbs. Courtney takes us behind the scenes of his decades-long acting career, his connection to the horror genre, and what it has been like working in Hollywood for more than 40 years. We also talk about his latest projects, including The Barn Part III. Courtney also opens up about his upcoming album Liberation Day, set to be released on August 24th.Follow us on Social Media:  @pvdhorror Instagram, X, TikTok, FacebookWatch us on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@pvdhorrorSpecial thanks to John Brennan for the intro and outro music. Be sure to find his music on social media at @badtechno or the following:https://johnbrennan.bandcamp.com

Fluent Fiction - Korean: Secrets Beyond the DMZ: Unveiling a Family's Heroic Legacy Find the full episode transcript, vocabulary words, and more:fluentfiction.com/ko/episode/2026-08-19-07-38-19-ko Story Transcript:Ko: 지우는 광복절에 DMZ 전시관을 방문했다.En: Jiwoo visited the DMZ exhibition hall on Liberation Day.Ko: 그의 옆에는 친구 민호가 있었다.En: Next to him was his friend Minho.Ko: 무더운 여름 날씨 속에서 전시관 앞은 사람들로 붐볐다.En: In the sweltering summer weather, the front of the exhibition hall was bustling with people.Ko: 전시관은 전쟁의 역사와 함께 한국의 아픈 역사를 보여주는 중요한 장소였다.En: The exhibition hall was an important place that showed the painful history of Korea along with the history of the war.Ko: 지우는 며칠 전 받은 수상한 편지에 대해 생각했다.En: Jiwoo thought about a suspicious letter he had received a few days ago.Ko: "전시관에 숨겨진 비밀이 있다"는 문구가 그의 마음을 흔들었다.En: The phrase "There is a hidden secret in the exhibition hall" shook his heart.Ko: 특히, 그의 할아버지가 어릴 적 들려주던 전쟁 이야기를 떠올리게 했다.En: It especially reminded him of the war stories his grandfather used to tell him when he was young.Ko: 할아버지는 군인으로서 중요한 역할을 했다고 했다.En: His grandfather had said he played an important role as a soldier.Ko: 지우는 그 이야기가 사실인지 확인하고 싶었다.En: Jiwoo wanted to find out if those stories were true.Ko: 전시관에는 다양한 유물과 사진들이 전시되어 있었다.En: Inside the exhibition hall, various relics and photos were displayed.Ko: 지우는 민호와 함께 조심스럽게 전시를 둘러보았다.En: Jiwoo and Minho carefully looked around the exhibition.Ko: 보안 요원들의 감시 속에서 지우는 긴장되었다.En: Under the watchful eyes of security guards, Jiwoo felt nervous.Ko: 하지만 그는 포기할 수 없었다.En: However, he couldn't give up.Ko: 할아버지의 진실을 밝히고 싶었다.En: He wanted to uncover the truth about his grandfather.Ko: 그들은 오래된 무기 전시물에서 걸음을 멈췄다.En: They stopped at the display of old weapons.Ko: 그곳에서 지우는 이상한 조각을 발견했다.En: There, Jiwoo discovered a strange object.Ko: 크고 무거운 상자였다.En: It was a large, heavy box.Ko: 그 안에는 오래된 편지와 지도 같은 것이 들어 있었다.En: Inside, there were old letters and something that looked like a map.Ko: 지우는 그것을 보고 강한 직감을 느꼈다.En: Seeing this, Jiwoo felt a strong intuition.Ko: 지휘본부와 연결된 비밀 정보를 담고 있는 듯했다.En: It seemed to contain secret information connected to the military command.Ko: 그것은 그의 할아버지와 관련된 증거일지도 몰랐다.En: It might be evidence related to his grandfather.Ko: 지우와 민호는 상자 속 서류를 확인하며 의미를 해석했다.En: Jiwoo and Minho checked the documents inside the box and interpreted their meaning.Ko: 그 안에는 지우의 할아버지만 알 수 있는 특별한 암호문이 있었다.En: Within them was a special cipher that only Jiwoo's grandfather would know.Ko: 민호는 자신을 도와 위험을 감수해 준 것에 감사했다.En: Minho was grateful for having helped despite the risks.Ko: 결국 지우는 할아버지가 전쟁 동안 중요한 임무를 수행했다는 사실을 알게 되었다.En: Ultimately, Jiwoo learned the fact that his grandfather had performed important missions during the war.Ko: 그는 이 사실이 할아버지를 더욱 자랑스럽게 만들었다.En: This knowledge made him even more proud of his grandfather.Ko: 지우는 그날 전시관을 나서며 역사의 중요성과 가족의 희생에 깊은 감명을 받았다.En: Jiwoo left the exhibition hall that day deeply impressed by the importance of history and the sacrifices of family.Ko: 이제 지우는 할아버지의 이야기를 더 이상 단순한 옛날 이야기로 생각하지 않았다.En: Now Jiwoo no longer thought of his grandfather's stories as just old tales.Ko: 그것은 자신의 삶을 변화시킨 진정한 영웅담이었다.En: They were true heroic stories that had changed his life.Ko: 지우는 그날 이후, 가족과 역사를 더욱 존중하게 되었다.En: From that day on, Jiwoo came to respect his family and history even more.Ko: 그리고 그는 무엇보다도, 이야기 속 할아버지의 뜨거운 열정을 마음 깊이 새겼다.En: And above all, he etched into his heart the passionate spirit of his grandfather from those stories. Vocabulary Words:exhibition: 전시관sweltering: 무더운bustling: 붐볐다suspicious: 수상한phrase: 문구relics: 유물watchful: 감시nervous: 긴장되었다uncover: 밝히고intuition: 직감military command: 지휘본부evidence: 증거interpret: 해석했다special cipher: 특별한 암호문grateful: 감사했다missions: 임무impressed: 감명을 받았다sacrifices: 희생etched: 새겼다heroic stories: 영웅담passionate: 뜨거운liberation: 광복exhibition hall: 전시관painful: 아픈letter: 편지hidden secret: 숨겨진 비밀grandfather: 할아버지role: 역할object: 조각gathered: 사람들로

Despite a major setback earlier this year when the Supreme Court ruled against his use of emergency authority in enacting tariffs back in April 2025 on what he called “Liberation Day,” President Donald Trump continues to find ways to levy import taxes on friends and foes alike. That includes a whopping 50% levy aimed at Canada which, if negotiations fail, will go into effect on August 19th. Meanwhile a new piece of legislation cloaked in the guise of Russian sanctions aims to effectively give the president carte blanche to levy tariffs on whichever countries he wants to. Is the president's “America First Trade Policy” a win for the American people? Inu Manak, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins The Excerpt to share her insights.Let us know what you think of this episode by sending an email to podcasts@usatoday.com. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Four institutions told this administration no. Four times, the answer was to find another door. This week on Purple Political Breakdown: the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche, Trump's former criminal defense attorney, as Attorney General by a vote of 50 to 49 at 4:31 in the morning on a Saturday. Bill Cassidy stood on the Senate floor, said the nominee had exempted the President from IRS audits and was running a department that sues the President's political enemies, and then voted yes anyway. We follow the money to Greenland, where a Texas oil company tied to Trump's circle landed drilling equipment the Greenlandic government never authorized, and got a public rebuke for it two days before Trump posted an AI image of himself looming over a Greenlandic village. Plus the DC Circuit blocking the White House ballroom 2 to 1, with the court reminding the President that he is a temporary tenant, not the owner. Then the story nobody covered correctly: roughly $100 billion in tariff refunds went back out the door after the Supreme Court struck the Liberation Day tariffs. Apple got $2.2 billion. Ford got $1.3 billion. Amazon got $600 million. You got nothing, because only the importer of record can file a claim, and the German Kiel Institute found that American importers and their customers ate 96 percent of the cost. The $2,000 rebate checks never happened. We break down the two birthright citizenship executive orders Trump signed on August 6, six weeks after losing at the Supreme Court in Trump v. Barbara, including the part almost no outlet caught: the citizenship order will be litigated for a year, but the visa order is already running through consulates where there is almost no judicial review. In Research on a Dime, David Crowley beat Francesca Hong by four tenths of a point in Wisconsin, and we get into what that actually says about DSA momentum in the Democratic Party, including Hong separating herself from the national platform on camera. Plus Peggy Flanagan, Andy Ogles losing a Trump endorsed primary, Iowa, and Markey against Moulton. And the main event: a real breakdown of what AIPAC is. Not the vibes version. The four separate entities, the difference between AIPAC PAC and the United Democracy Project super PAC, and the answer to the question nobody gets right. Haley Stevens could not have refused that $30 million even if she wanted to. Neither could Abdul El Sayed refuse his $2.3 million. We walk through the three legal buckets, why AIPAC is not a foreign entity under FARA, what the actual history of that argument is, and why the honest fix here is campaign finance reform rather than a FARA designation that is not going to happen without evidence. Good news to close: gene edited hypoallergenic beagles, real progress on HIV and AIDS, motor improvements in boys with muscular dystrophy, the first mRNA flu vaccine approved, Google's AI buying hurricane forecasters an extra day, a much larger ancient Amazon civilization than anyone expected, and NASA engineers fighting for ten watts on a 49 year old spacecraft 13 billion miles away. Data centers, water usage, energy usage and jobs are coming next week. Political Solutions Without Political Bias. Standard Resource Links & Recommendations The following organizations and platforms represent valuable resources for balanced political discourse and democratic participation: PODCAST NETWORK Check Out the Podcast Website: https://www.purplepoliticalbreakdown.com ALIVE Podcast Network: Check out the ALIVE Network where you can catch a lot of great podcasts like my own, led by amazing Black voices. 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This week, we're bringing you an episode of WSJ's Take On the Week. Host Telis Demos and guest host Spencer Jakab, investing columnist and writer of the Markets A.M. newsletter, are joined by Kaitlin Hendrix, asset allocation research director at Dimensional Fund Advisors, to decode investors' surging interest in private markets. They break down how investors may already have exposure in their investment portfolios to private companies like Anthropic, Stripe and Flipkart, through holdings in companies like Alphabet's Google, Amazon and Nvidia. Hendrix explains why your public index fund might already provide the diversification you're looking for, without the high fees. Plus, Jakab explains the way that big tech's private company investments are boosting earnings to near-unprecedented levels.  To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Further Reading:  Earnings Forecasts Are on Steroids For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

If you run a business that exports to the United States, how big is the tariff you have to pay? In 2025 that question was hard to answer. Between February and December, 53 separate announcements introduced, delayed, reinstated or changed US tariffs, with different countries and products pulled in or exempted each time.Kalina Manova (UCL, CEPR) and her colleagues built a database of every one of those announcements, but they also measured  the confusion that those announcements created. She tells Tim Phillips about how tariff confusion has become a second tax on trade, as confusion puts off exporters: but it's one that raises no revenue. On average, uncertainty about the actual tariff doubled the damage done to trade by the tariff hikes themselves. For some countries it tripled it. Does this result mean that, if the US cleared up the confusion by not changing its tariffs regularly, it could double tariff income for the same impact on trade?The research behind this episode:Manova, Kalina, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson, and Aaron Tang. 2026. "Tariff Confusion." CEPR Discussion Paper DP21688 (gated).To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Kalina Manova. 2026. "Tariff Confusion." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).About the guestKalina Manova is Professor of Economics at University College London and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Her work spans global production networks and multinational activity, firm productivity and management, trade policy, and the financial frictions that shape international trade and investment. She holds an AB, AM and PhD from Harvard, and has previously held posts at Stanford, Princeton and Oxford.Research cited in this episodeUS Tariff Announcement Database (USTAD). The dataset Manova and her co-authors assembled by hand from US presidential executive orders and proclamations, recording all 53 tariff announcements of 2025 and tracing, for roughly 230 origin countries and more than 18,000 ten-digit product categories, the statutory tariff in place each month.The four confusion measures. With no direct way to measure confusion, the paper proxies it four ways: the cumulative number of relevant announcements a firm had to track; the number of possible tariff calculations those announcements could produce (labelled tariff mess, defined as two to the power of the number of announcements); the highest tariff a firm might infer if it heard only the bad news (tariff max); and how far that worst case sits above the true statutory rate (tariff miss).The firm survey. A survey of roughly 4,500 firms in the US and Canada in March and April 2025 found that around 45% believed tariffs on Chinese goods were below 20%, when the true average was about 42%; at the same time, 87% underestimated how many announcements had postponed or rolled back tariffs. Firms were wrong in both directions at once.Trade policy uncertainty. A prior literature on uncertainty about future tariffs, which tends to find that firms delay forming trade relationships when the future is unclear. The paper's contribution is to separate confusion about current tariffs from uncertainty about future ones, and to show the former bites on its own.Relationship-specific investment and trust. Trade in goods that require buyers and suppliers to customise to one another, or that sit in stickier supply relationships, proved more resilient to confusion; so did trade with countries whose populations report higher trust in foreigners. Informal trust, rather than formal contract enforcement, did the work of cushioning the shock.The IEEPA ruling. In February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed in 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. The paper's data stops before the ruling, which generated fresh policy change and, presumably, fresh confusion.More VoxTalks Economics episodesWorld War Trade. Richard Baldwin on how the April 2025 tariffs settled into a trade Cold War, and why the rest of the world kept trading without the US.Europe in the Middle. Pol Antrà s and Beata Javorcik on where redirected Chinese exports go when they can no longer sell in the US, and what that means for European firms and consumers.How exchange rates responded to tariffs. Giancarlo Corsetti on why the dollar fell after Liberation Day when tariffs should, in theory, have pushed it the other way.Related reading on VoxEU.orgTrump and Tariffs, a VoxEU debate page collecting research on how the 2025 tariffs are reshaping supply chains, trade relationships and market stability.

Trump has put a 12.5 percent tariff on about 70 percent of NZ exports to the US, and this one looks more likely to stick The 'Liberation Day' tariffs were struck down earlier this year, but Trump is back with a new round of tariffs, and experts say these look more legally soundFind The Detail on Newsroom or RNZGo to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

urple Political Breakdown, hosted by Radell Lewis. Political Solutions Without Political Bias. The Supreme Court struck down this administration's tariffs. So it found a different law and taxed 99.4 percent of everything America imports anyway. A federal judge blocked the order rewriting how you get a mail ballot. So it went to the Supreme Court, and the Postal Service started building the portal regardless. OpenAI sealed two AI models in a sandbox to test whether they could hack. The models picked the lock and hacked a real company on the way out. Nobody in this episode broke a rule. Everybody found a way around one. That is the thread. This week we launch a new opening segment, What Has Trump Said This Week, going straight to the tape on the fourth term comments and the Netanyahu remarks. NUANCED NEWS: The tariff sequence nobody is explaining. Three different legal authorities in six months producing nearly the same outcome, each time a court closed a door. Section 301 after Section 122 after the Supreme Court struck the original Liberation Day tariffs. Then the same authority aimed at the European Union one day later over the Google antitrust fine, and a lawsuit filed by Friday afternoon. Plus the mail ballot executive order reaching the Supreme Court with a response due August 3, two federal appeals courts splitting on ripeness in the same week, and the postal portal getting built anyway. Plus the OpenAI containment breach, including the detail almost nobody reported: when OpenAI tried to defend against its own attacking agent, another American lab's safety guardrails made its model useless, so the defense ran on an open source Chinese model. RESEARCH ON A DIME: Jay Clayton, confirmed Director of National Intelligence 51 to 47, and the surveillance law nobody will vote on. Section 702 of FISA has been dead since June 12. It is not being debated on its merits. It is collateral. And on July 10, the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law without a presidential signature for the same reason. Same bill. Two hostages. Then Michigan's Senate primary, the 36 million dollars in outside spending, and the 16.8 million from a group that does not have to say who funds it until after you vote. BREAKDOWN IN THE PUBLIC: Is it actually harder now, or does it just feel that way? New Pew data on how young adults see homeownership, education, savings, and jobs, the Minneapolis Fed's argument that we may be measuring American homeownership 12 points wrong, and an honest steel-man of the case that the whole gerontocracy frame is a misdirection. GOOD NEWS: States are revoking data center tax breaks after residents connected their power bills to the building down the road. Solar hit a quarter of all EU electricity for the first time. And a Stanford Medicine trial has kids with multiple food allergies eating full servings safely. Join the conversation about real political solutions: https://www.reddit.com/r/policysolutions/ New episodes stream live every Wednesday. Full audio drops Thursday. Standard Resource Links & Recommendations The following organizations and platforms represent valuable resources for balanced political discourse and democratic participation: PODCAST NETWORK Check Out the Podcast Website: https://www.purplepoliticalbreakdown.com ALIVE Podcast Network: Check out the ALIVE Network where you can catch a lot of great podcasts like my own, led by amazing Black voices. Link: https://alivepodcastnetwork.com/ CONVERSATION PLATFORMS HeadOn: A platform for contentious yet productive conversations. It's a place for hosted and unguided conversations where you can grow a following and enhance your conversations with AI features. Link: https://app.headon.ai/ Living Room Conversations: Building bridges through meaningful dialogue across political divides. Link: https://livingroomconversations.org/ UNITY MOVEMENTS Us United: A movement for unity that challenges Americans to step out of their bubbles and connect across differences. Take the Unity Pledge, join monthly "30 For US" conversation calls, wear purple (the color of unity), and participate in National Unity Day every second Saturday in December. Their programs include the Sheriff Unity Network and Unity Seats at sports events, proving that shared values are stronger than our differences. Link: https://www.us-united.org/ BALANCED NEWS & INFORMATION OtherWeb: An AI-based platform that filters news without paywalls, clickbait, or junk, helping you access diverse, unbiased content. Link: https://otherweb.com/ VOTING REFORM & DEMOCRACY Equal Vote Coalition & STAR Voting: Advocating for voting methods that ensure every vote counts equally, eliminating wasted votes and strategic voting. Link: https://www.equal.vote/star Future is Now Coalition (FiNC): A grassroots movement working to restore democracy through transparency, accountability, and innovative technology while empowering citizens and transforming American political discourse. Link: https://futureis.org/ POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT Independent Center: Resources for independent political thinking and civic engagement. Link: https://www.independentcenter.org/ GET DAILY NEWS Text 844-406-INFO (844-406-4636) with code "purple" to receive quick, unbiased, factual news delivered to your phone every morning via Informed (https://informed.now) Check Out the Unfuck America Tour & National Ground Game: https://www.nationalgroundgame.com/ Check Out the CIVICS App to Know More About Your Politicians: https://www.civicpolitics.com Subscribe to the Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/purplepoliticalbreakdown ALL LINKS https://linktr.ee/purplepoliticalbreakdown The Purple Political Breakdown is committed to fostering productive political dialogue that transcends partisan divides. We believe in the power of conversation, balanced information, and democratic participation to build a stronger society. Our mission: "Political solutions without political bias." Subscribe, rate, and share if you believe in purple politics, where we find common ground in the middle! 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In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, host Telis Demos and guest host Spencer Jakab, the Wall Street Journal's investing columnist and writer of the Markets A.M. newsletter, are joined by Kaitlin Hendrix, asset allocation research director at global investment firm Dimensional Fund Advisors, to decode investors' surging interest in private markets.  They break down how investors may already have exposure in their investment portfolios to private companies like Anthropic, Stripe and Flipkart, through holdings in companies like Alphabet's Google, Amazon and Nvidia. Hendrix explains why your public index fund might already provide the diversification you're looking for, without the high fees. Plus, Jakab explains the way that big tech's private company investments are boosting earnings to near-unprecedented levels.  This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, writer for WSJ's Heard on the Street, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ's investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading Earnings Forecasts Are on Steroids For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter, written by our guest host: Spencer Jakab.  Follow Miriam Gottfried here and Telis Demos here. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Months after many of his ‘Liberation Day' tariffs were declared illegal by the Supreme Court, Donald Trump has announced a fresh wave of tariffs against dozens of countries.This time, using the allegation of “forced labour” by America's trading partners, Trump is hoping his new tariffs will be less open to challenge in the courts.But what will the impact be on American consumers already hit hard by the war in Iran? And can anyone take Trump's trade policy seriously, when it can all change in an instant?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Australian-American economist Justin Wolfers, as well as Financial Times columnist and co-author of the book How to Win a Trade War, Soumaya Keynes.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court. The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections 06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months 07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day 08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day 09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans 10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House 11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans 12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats 14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map 14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate 16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate 17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle 18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago 18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year 19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas 21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats 21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses? 22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat 24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against 26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable 27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent 29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not 30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war 31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval 32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party 34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance 35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014 36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans 37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles 37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval 38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers 39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms 40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it 42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports 43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten 44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does 46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives 46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools 47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement 48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this 49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down 50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges 51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed 53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation 53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it 54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players 55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill 57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere 58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut 59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025 59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak 1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK 1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price 1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation 1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal 1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi 1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy 1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC 1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far 1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run? 1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder 1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries 1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club 1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate 1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries 01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems 01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration 01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed 01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late 01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long 01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past 01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him 01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation 01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory 01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition 01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism 01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism 01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden 01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse 01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority 01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people 01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics? 01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues 01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power 01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy 01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them 01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America 01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax 01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year 01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional 01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea 01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility 01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better 01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump 01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left 01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states 01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable 01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue 01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states 01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same 02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24 02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats 02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027? 02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living 02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated 02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much 02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable 02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose 02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating? 02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine 02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties 02:14:00 #5 Oregon 02:15:00 #4 Ohio 02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin 02:18:15 #2 Kansas 02:19:00 #1 Iowa 02:20:00 Ask Chuck 02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair 02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin? 02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time? 02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida? 02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections 06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months 07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day 08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day 09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans 10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House 11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans 12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats 14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map 14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate 16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate 17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle 18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago 18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year 19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas 21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats 21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses? 22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat 24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against 26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable 27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent 29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not 30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war 31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval 32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party 34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance 35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014 36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans 37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles 37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval 38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers 39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms 40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it 42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports 43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten 44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does 46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives 46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools 47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement 48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this 49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down 50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges 51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed 53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation 53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it 54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players 55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill 57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere 58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut 59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025 59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak 1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK 1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price 1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation 1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal 1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi 1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy 1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC 1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far 1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run? 1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder 1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries 1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club 1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate 1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries 01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties 01:14:00 #5 Oregon 01:15:00 #4 Ohio 01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin 01:18:15 #2 Kansas 01:19:00 #1 Iowa 01:20:00 Ask Chuck 01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair 01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin? 01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time? 01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida? 01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recorded at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum, Paris School of Economics, June 2026.In 1941 the United States banned oil exports to Japan, to punish aggression without fighting a war. Historians now argue the embargo did the opposite, and hastened Japan's entry into the war.Isabelle Méjean (Sciences Po, CEPR) calls this "The safety paradox". Trade between rivals makes war more expensive. Cut that trade to protect your interests, and you make conflict cheaper, for your rival as well as for you. In a new VoxTalk she talks to Tim Phillips about economic coercion, decoupling, and why Europe should treat its trade agreements as insurance.Méjean and her co-authors simulated the US decoupling from China. Raising tariffs by 20 percentage points, roughly what the first Trump administration did, raises the probability of war by 2%, she estimates. That sounds small until you consider what a war between the US and China would mean.The research behind this episode:Mayer, Thierry, Isabelle Méjean, and Mathias Thoenig. 2025. "The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety." CEPR Discussion Paper 20564 (gated).To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Isabelle Méjean. 2026. "The Safety Paradox." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).About the guestIsabelle Méjean is Professor of Economics at Sciences Po and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, where she directs the International Trade and Regional Economics programme and is a member of the Research Policy Network on Geoeconomics and Security. She is a scientific advisor at CEPII and a member of the French Conseil d'Analyse Économique, with research spanning international trade, firm-to-firm networks, and how shocks to individual firms move whole economies. In 2020 she was named Best Young Economist of France.Research cited in this episodeMake Trade Not War? Philippe Martin, Thierry Mayer, and Mathias Thoenig's 2008 paper in the Review of Economic Studies (75(3): 865-900) provided the first quantitative evidence that bilateral trade integration reduces the probability of interstate conflict; the diplomatic game in the new paper builds directly on it.Montesquieu, De l'esprit des lois (1748). The earliest statement of the idea, Méjean notes, that interdependence between nations raises the cost of conflict and strengthens the hand of diplomacy; what was trade dependence in the 18th century now includes finance and technology.The US oil embargo on Japan, 1941. Méjean's historical example of the safety paradox in action; a policy designed to impose costs on Japan is widely credited by historians with accelerating its entry into the Second World War.China's trade ban on Lithuania. After Lithuania allowed a Taiwanese representative office to open in Vilnius in 2021, China blocked Lithuanian products from its market; the episode's example of open economic coercion, and one that prompted the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, in force since 2023.Liberation Day tariffs. The US tariffs announced in April 2025; Méjean points to the tariff on Brazil, justified by the treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, as a tariff with an explicitly geopolitical rather than economic purpose.Rare earths. China holds a near monopoly across mining, refining, and magnet production; Méjean's example of where future trade agreements could act as insurance, because deposits outside China offer more scope for diversification than mining in Europe.More VoxTalks Economics episodesEurope in the Middle. Pol Antras and Beata Javorcik, recorded at the same forum, on what the US-China realignment means for European producers and consumers.World War Trade. Richard Baldwin on how world trade was weaponised, and where the trading order goes from here.Trading Around Geopolitics. Giancarlo Corsetti, Banu Demir, and Beata Javorcik on why trade sanctions can be like squeezing a balloon.Related reading on VoxEUWhy 'de-risking' may not deliver a large peace dividend, a VoxEU column estimating that a doubling of bilateral trade reduces the probability of militarised conflict by roughly 30%.How geopolitics is changing trade, a VoxEU column documenting the fragmentation of trade flows along geopolitical lines.Geopolitical risk and supply chain diversification, a VoxEU column on how firms respond to geopolitical risk in their sourcing decisions.

Economists have agreed on free trade for two centuries; the public and the politicians haven't caught up. Lucas Engelhardt rebuilds the case from scratch—mutual benefit, comparative advantage, and the simple point that drawing a border between two traders destroys none of the gains—then takes apart the arguments for tariffs one by one. Most timely is his treatment of trade deficits: following Mises, he shows a deficit isn't a "loss" but the natural result of Americans choosing goods over cash, and explains why "Liberation Day" tariffs actually made the deficit spike.Recorded at the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, on July 21, 2026.Mises University is the world's leading instructional program in the Austrian School of economics, and is the essential training ground for economists who are looking beyond the mainstream.

Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.Jack Schwager on Xhttps://x.com/jackschwagerMarket Wizards: The Next Generationhttps://amzn.to/4psEOmHTopics coveredHow video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of tradersHow Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track recordsWhy return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratioLukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalabilitySimon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 millionHow breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary successKristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowupsPhil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk controlRick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing monthWhy financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solveLance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positionsWhat traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human natureTimestamps00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment57:58 What the next generation of trading may look likeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

L'ex amministratore delegato di Autostrade per l Italia, Giovanni Castellucci, è stato condannato a 12 anni di reclusione per il crollo del Ponte Morandi avvenuto il 14 agosto 2018. È questa la sentenza di primo grado emessa dai giudici del Tribunale di Genova. L'ex numero uno di Aspi sta già scontando una condanna per la strage del viadotto di Monteforte Irpino (Avellino) del 2013, in cui perirono 40 persone. I giudici Paolo Lepri (presidente), Ferdinando Baldini e Fulvio Polidori, hanno anche condannato a 11 anni Michele Donferri Mitelli (ex numero tre di Aspi), per cui il pm aveva chiesto 15 anni e sei mesi. Si conclude così un processo in primo grado che si è snodato in 287 udienze. Alla sbarra, in attesa delle decisioni dei giudici , 57 imputati, tra i quali Giovanni Castellucci che, ai tempi del disastro, era amministratore delegato di Autostrade per l Italia. Per gli imputati, i Pm hanno chiesto 400 anni di carcere complessivi e un assoluzione. E la pena più alta, 18 anni e sei mesi, era stata chiesta proprio per l ex ad. Ne parliamo con Raoul de Forcade, Il Sole 24 Ore.Quando la difesa diventa infrastrutturaIl vertice NATO di Ankara ha confermato che il rafforzamento della difesa europea non passa soltanto dall'acquisto di sistemi d'arma, ma anche dalla disponibilità di capacità produttiva, reti logistiche, comunicazioni sicure e infrastrutture in grado di continuare a funzionare sotto pressione. È questo il significato più ampio della resilienza: non solo respingere una minaccia, ma impedire che un attacco, un sabotaggio o un'interruzione prolungata paralizzino il funzionamento di un Paese. Il quadro di riferimento resta quello fissato al vertice NATO dell'Aia del giugno 2025 e riconfermato ad Ankara: gli alleati si sono impegnati a portare la spesa complessiva al 5% del PIL entro il 2035, di cui almeno il 3,5% per la difesa in senso stretto e fino all'1,5% per spese di difesa e sicurezza allargata che comprendono esplicitamente la protezione delle infrastrutture critiche, la difesa delle reti, la resilienza civile e il rafforzamento della base industriale.Una rete elettrica, per esempio, non è un sistema d'arma, ma senza elettricità non funzionano basi militari, ospedali, telecomunicazioni, data center, aeroporti, porti, ferrovie, industrie e sistemi di pagamento. Le reti europee sono già sottoposte a investimenti significativi per sostenere l'elettrificazione, l'integrazione delle fonti rinnovabili e la crescente domanda dei data center; a queste esigenze si aggiunge ora la necessità di proteggere il sistema da blackout, cyberattacchi, sabotaggi e shock energetici. Approfondiamo il tema con Giacomo Calef, co-fondatore di Rheos Partners.Troppo caldo: in Italia a rischio 126 miliardi di Pil in 5 anniIl caldo estremo è ormai un rischio strutturale crescente soprattutto per l'Europa e in particolare per i Paesi del Sud Europa. Dal 1980 a oggi, gli eventi di stress termico sono aumentati di sette volte, mentre la mortalità media per evento è quintuplicata. L'Europa concentra un numero elevato di vittime: Italia, Francia, Spagna e Germania rappresentano insieme circa il 50% dei decessi globali legati alle ondate di calore registrati nel database analizzato. L'Italia da sola pesa per circa il 18% della mortalità mondiale censita. Secondo lo studio di Allianz Trade, oltre la soglia dei 30°C gli effetti economici del caldo peggiorano rapidamente. Ogni grado aggiuntivo tra 30°C e 35°C riduce la produzione oraria media di circa il 3%, mentre il consumo energetico aumenta dell'1,2% per grado a causa della maggiore domanda di raffrescamento. Gli economisti di Allianz Trade sottolineano che l'Europa è particolarmente vulnerabile perché dispone ancora di una diffusione limitata dell'aria condizionata: circa il 19% delle abitazioni contro il 90% degli Stati Uniti. Nello scenario elaborato per il periodo 2026-2030 basato sulla ripetizione degli anni più caldi registrati nell'ultimo decennio i costi macroeconomici risultano molto elevati. Le perdite cumulative di PIL potrebbero raggiungere: 206 miliardi di euro in Francia; 126 miliardi di euro in Italia; 112 miliardi di euro in Germania; 103 miliardi di euro in Spagna. Per Italia, Francia e Spagna ciò equivale a una riduzione cumulativa del PIL compresa tra il 5% e il 7% rispetto allo scenario climatico storico. Ne parliamo con Andrea Resteghini, Head of Credit Underwriting ( capo dei rischi ) Italia e MMEA Allianz Trade.«Dazi, tariffe illegali» e gli Usa rimborsano alle aziende 81 miliardiDonald Trump aveva promesso che i superdazi avrebbero riportato le fabbriche in America, ridotto il deficit federale e costretto il resto del mondo a negoziare alle condizioni di Washington. Ma la realtà dei conti pubblici si sta rivelando molto diversa. Il Tesoro americano ha rivelato di aver già restituito 81 miliardi di dollari alle aziende che avevano versato dazi poi dichiarati illegittimi dalla Corte Suprema. È la prima volta che vengono quantificati i rimborsi già effettuati, una cifra enorme che cancella una parte consistente degli incassi ottenuti con la politica protezionistica dell'Amministrazione Trump e contribuisce ad allargare il profondo rosso del bilancio federale.Negli Usa il contraccolpo delle scelte di Trump è forte e si avverte soprattutto sul piano giuridico e fiscale. I rimborsi riguardano i cosiddetti dazi del «Liberation Day» annunciati da Trump nell'aprile del 2025 e imposti sulla base dell'International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), una legge del 1977 che attribuisce al presidente poteri straordinari in caso di emergenza nazionale. La Casa Bianca sosteneva che gli squilibri commerciali costituivano un'emergenza tale da giustificare un dazio minimo di almeno il 10% sulle importazioni provenienti da quasi tutto il mondo, accompagnato da tariffe molto più elevate nei confronti di numerosi partner commerciali, a partire dalla Cina. Lo scorso febbraio, però, la Corte Suprema, con una maggioranza di sei giudici contro tre, ha stabilito che quella legge non autorizzava il presidente a imporre una tassa generalizzata sulle importazioni. Secondo i giudici, Trump aveva oltrepassato i limiti dei poteri affidatigli dal Congresso e l'Amministrazione è stata chiamata a restituire alle imprese il denaro già incassato. I nuovi dati del Tesoro mostrano per la prima volta l'entità dei rimborsi già effettuati. Dall'inizio dell'anno fiscale il governo ha restituito 81 miliardi di dollari, contro i circa 5 miliardi che vengono normalmente rimborsati ogni anno per contenziosi e rettifiche doganali. Approfondiamo il tema con Massimo Fabio, Partner KPMG, EMEA Regional Leader Trade & Customs services.

Cape Gun Works owner and founder of The Civil Rights Coalition Toby Leary joins Cam with his reaction to SCOTUS taking up an "assault weapon" case, and what CGW is doing for customers in anticipation of "Liberation Day."

Is Israel ready for $200 a barrel oil if they keep fighting? American culture is nothing like the culture in most parts of the world. Barbarians are in the country. Bill Casady said what to Trump? Liberation Day for RINOs. The fraud that no one wants to talk about.Follow The Jesse Kelly Show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheJesseKellyShowSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The eye-watering “Liberation Day” trade tariffs that Trump unleashed on the world on April 2, 2025, are about to expire after the US Supreme Court ruled the President had overstepped his powers. But the damage they've caused continues to reverberate. For economists, Trump's tariffs began World War Trade, a dangerous new era of predatory trade and protectionism. How did tariffs become Trump's weapon of choice? And is his trade war a total bust? Professor of international economics at IMD Business School Richard Baldwin unpacks the truth about Trump's tariff policy with Emma Kennedy. • Special offer! Get 20% off any vehicle history check at carVertical.com/TheBunker • Read Richard's book World War Trade: Conflict, Containment and the Emergent World Trading Order • Back us on Patreon – www.patreon.com/bunkercastWritten and presented by Emma Kennedy. Producer: James Liddell. Audio production: Robin Leeburn. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Music by Kenny Dickinson. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production.www.podmasters.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

 President Trump’s most prized word is ‘tariffs’ and on Liberation Day he extolled their virtues and told us that this would usher in a new era of reshoring and renewal of the manufacturing sector. He has also touted $18 trillion dollars in manufacturing investments here in the United States, but according to our guest that has yet to result in shovels in the ground.  After a year of on again, off again tariffs and testy interplay with allies on many of the levies, is it having the desired effect of creating new investment and employment in the manufacturing sector?  Our guest, Paul Lavoie is the vice president for Innovation, Corporate Partnerships and Career Success at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.  As the State of Connecticut’s former chief manufacturing officer, he was named one of top 5 Chief Manufacturing Officers in the world.  He answers a range of questions about the current manufacturing policy in the United States and offers his six steps to bend the curve back toward growth in that sector of our economy.

In this episode, we kick things off at the nation's busiest container gateway, where frontloading is fueling a massive early peak season surge. The Port of Los Angeles handled over 840,000 TEUs in May, up seventeen percent from a year ago, driven by strong inventory replenishment, concerns about fuel costs, trade-policy uncertainty, and preparation for upcoming retail seasons. Loaded imports surged twenty-six percent year-over-year, rebounding sharply from May 2025 when import traffic was severely undercut by Liberation Day tariffs on China. Meanwhile, the truckload market's upswing is officially ushering in driver pay hikes across the sector. Joliet-based carrier GP Transco increased pay for all company drivers by five cents per mile, pushing the upper end to seventy-two cents per mile, while Dubuque's Hirschbach announced a ten-cent per mile increase for over-the-road drivers. A supply-led trucking recovery has prompted the need for enhanced driver pay and perks, with heightened regulatory enforcement purging noncompliant drivers from the market since last fall. Finally, the Federal Railroad Administration is greenlighting expanded testing of high-tech track inspection systems as Class I railroads prepare for a major safety upgrade. The FRA recently approved a five-year waiver that lets railroads expand the use of Automated Track Inspection technology, which uses lasers, cameras, sensors, and ground-penetrating radar to scan tracks for defects. CSX plans to start using the waiver on July first, deploying the technology across over three thousand route miles, with early data showing ATI reduces track geometry defects by ninety percent in some cases. Follow the FreightWaves NOW Podcast Other FreightWaves Shows Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Matthew Tuttle to the show. Matthew is the CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, a firm that focuses on breaking away from conventional Wall Street wisdom by using its own ETFs that target new investment opportunities.   Matthew kicks things off by discussing the "death of value investing" and what he believes is contributing to it. First, with the advent of the Internet, information was more accessible to ordinary people, so a lot of the edge from learning crucial details was lost. Second, folks lost interest in value investing. When COVID-19 struck, a lot of new investors spent their stimulus checks on meme stocks instead of solid companies. But while Matthew thinks it's dead, he says the new value stocks are in heavy assets, low obsolescence ("HALO") investing. These are stocks with physical assets, so it's unlikely that even AI could disrupt them. (0:00)   Next, Matthew shares his disdain for exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"). He believes the majority of them "stink" and that if investors want to invest in a theme, they should completely invest in that theme. The problem, he says, is that Magnificent Seven companies are added to an ETF with the businesses having little relation to the theme, and you're probably holding them in several places. Additionally, there are "way too many ETFs, way too many indexes, [and] way too many... investment ideas" that folks are buying into. But one of the bigger problems is that ETFs are being advertised to individual investors using "marketable" people rather than proven and tested portfolio managers. (13:03)   Finally, Matthew shares the framework behind his hedging and asymmetry strategy. With hedging, you want to limit your tailing risk. However, Matthew says that bonds are not a proper hedge, and points out how "Liberation Day" and the Iran conflict saw bonds sell in tandem with stocks. With asymmetry, the idea is to limit your losses instead of your gains. Matthew says that all the top investors he has spoken with had their own methods that made them lots of money when their ideas were correct, but they only lost a little bit of money when they were wrong. It's important that you also set up your strategy work the same way. And Matthew says that going down the supply chain of breakthrough companies helps you find the best investing opportunities. (33:40)

Jim talked with Cory Doctorow—prolific sci-fi and nonfiction author, journalist, activist, EFF special adviser, and author of Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It—about how structural forces degraded the internet, and what citizens (not consumers) can actually do about it. They discussed: The origin of "enshittification"—Cory's January 2023 blog post, its viral spread, and its naming as Word of the Year by the American Dialect Society Two-sided markets & the persistence of intermediaries Crad Kilodney as a self-publishing illustration, and why platform middlemen survive even when they shouldn't Monopsony vs. monopoly The real statistics of Amazon's dominance of book sales The three-stage enshittification life cycle, using Facebook as the case study The brittle equilibrium of late-stage enshittification—the thin line between "I hate this but can't leave" and mass exodus The metaverse as Facebook's terminal pivot—Zuckerberg's "legless, sexless, low-polygon" avatar world stolen from a 25-year-old cyberpunk novel, and why it still served him by forestalling investor sell-offs Zuckerberg as Rich Uncle Pennybags, not Willy Wonka Amazon's early history & Bezos's "your margin is my opportunity" mantra Amazon's junk fees (now 50–60% and rising) and the $80 billion/year advertising payola business The consumer welfare doctrine—Robert Bork's antitrust theory that monopoly is efficient, and why allowing monopsonies inevitably produces monopolies Jim's personal experience with the Thomson-West legal publishing merger Tech workers as a structural check on enshittification The convergence enabling enshittification: merger to monopoly → regulatory capture → loss of worker leverage → DMCA blocking entrants → abuse The moral decay of business culture—from "we won't do profitable things we think are wrong," to "do whatever's arguably legal," to "do whatever's illegal if the fine is less than the benefit" Google's $20 billion/year payment to Apple to stay off the search market Why predatory pricing cases went unenforced What citizens (not consumers) can do The death of federal antitrust enforcement and international ripple effects State-level antitrust action as a remaining avenue The right to repair as an easy entry point Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs as a paradoxical opportunity Tech as geopolitical weapon—Microsoft accounts bricked for a Brazilian judge who sentenced Bolsonaro; the ICC chief prosecutor's accounts shut down after the Netanyahu arrest warrant The vision for open, auditable, sovereign digital public goods to replace the enshittified American Internet—run internationally, controlled locally … and much more. Links Episode Transcript Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It, by Cory Doctorow The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI: How to Think About Artificial Intelligence Before It's Too Late, by Cory Doctorow Radicalized, by Cory Doctorow The Internet Con, by Cory Doctorow The Bezzle, by Cory Doctorow "TikTok's enshittification," by Cory Doctorow Pluralistic.net Electronic Frontier Foundation Bio Cory Doctorow is a science fiction author, activist, and journalist. He is the author of many books, including the forthcoming The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI: How to Think About Artificial Intelligence Before It's Too Late. Previous works include Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It, the subject of this interview; The Internet Con: How to Seize the Means of Computation, a Big Tech disassembly manual; Red Team Blues, a science fiction crime thriller; Chokepoint Capitalism, nonfiction about monopoly and creative labor markets; the Little Brother series for young adults; In Real Life, a graphic novel; and the picture book Poesy the Monster Slayer. In 2020, he was inducted into the Canadian Science Fiction and Fantasy Hall of Fame.

It's been over a year since Trump's “Liberation Day” when he rolled out his global tariffs, but the Supreme Court struck those down resulting in chaos and confusion about what happens next. Guest Host Catherine Rampell, of The Bulwark and MSNOW, welcomes Scott Lincicome, VP of economics at the Cato Institute, to try to make sense of how the 166 billion dollars in tariffs will be refunded to businesses that were impacted. Catherine and Scott break down the bureaucratic red tape of the refund process, why small businesses are once again getting left behind, and the valid fears of political retaliation that are keeping major corporations silent.And with the U.S. government taking multi-billion-dollar equity stakes in everything from steel mills to quantum computing, we discuss the rise of “state capitalism.” It's not exactly the free market that Republicans have been cheering for generations. Plus, after Trump's landmark trip to China, many Americans are experiencing what Scott calls “China envy.”READ Catherine's writing in The Bulwark: https://substack.com/@catherinerampell/postsREAD Scott's writing: https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome

Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

The dollar erased every war gain, oil's back above $102, yields are at 4.5%, and mining stocks just gave you the buying opportunity of the year.Gold settled the week at $4,612 with silver at $75.33, both drifting lower as investor attention shifted to record-high stock indexes. Mining stocks took the hardest hit with GDX down 6.25% — a buying opportunity Peter Schiff says is being created by the same complacency that preceded every major gold breakout.The dollar index fell to 97.7, erasing every penny gained since the Iran war began — a historically weak bounce for a supposed safe haven currency. Oil climbed back above $102 while 30-year Treasury yields touched 4.5%, recreating the exact conditions that forced Trump to reverse Liberation Day tariffs. Schiff revisits Powell's claim of 40 years of controlled inflation, breaking it down decade by decade to show average CPI of 5.5% in the '80s, 3% in the '90s, and 2.6% in the 2000s — with only the post-crisis 2010s near the 2% target. He also highlights the Bitcoin conference where last year's darling Nakamoto is down 99% between conferences, while this year's pitch of "digital credit" is even worse than subprime.Chapters:00:00 Welcome and Subscribe00:25 Gold Silver Weekly Recap01:08 Mining Stocks and Fund Plug02:00 Why Gold Bullish Now03:14 Stocks High Oil Yields Rising06:27 Fed Presser and Powell Exit10:05 Money Supply Inflation Reality17:32 Debt Deficits and Fed Failure19:54 Tariffs Cars and Stagflation22:48 Bitcoin Strategy Ponzi Talk24:30 Dollar Weak Bonds to Gold27:19 Gold Targets and Crypto Risks29:15 Schiff Gold App Call to Buy30:58 Wrap Up and Where to FollowFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffGet more gold & silver now: https://www.schiffgold.com1-888-GOLD-160 (465-3160)Open a T Gold account: https://www.tgold.comOpen a managed account: https://europac.comListen to The Peter Schiff Show: https://schiffradio.comFollow the main channel: https://youtube.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #GoldInvesting #FridayMarketWrapOur Sponsors:* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Trump wants to buy Spirit Airlines at bankruptcy with taxpayer money to "save jobs." That's not capitalism — that's Bernie Sanders with a red tie.- Today's podcasts is sponsored by Pebl. Go to http://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate.- Today's podcast is also sponsored by NetSuite. Download Netsuite's free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://netsuite.com/goldJerome Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair featured a claim that inflation was "under control" for 40 years before the pandemic — a statement Peter Schiff demolishes decade by decade, showing average CPI of 5.5% in the 1980s, 3% in the 1990s, and 2.6% in the 2000s, with only the post-crisis 2010s anywhere near the 2% target.The Fed held rates at 3.5% while oil surged past $108 WTI and $120 Brent, bond yields pushed back toward post-Liberation Day highs with the 30-year hitting 5%, and four FOMC members dissented on the dovish bias. Powell announced he'll stay on the board to protect "Fed independence," but Schiff argues he'll be irrelevant. The episode also covers Trump's plan to buy Spirit Airlines at bankruptcy — proof he doesn't understand capitalism — Michael Saylor's Bitcoin conference keynote pushing Stretch preferred stock as a thinly veiled Ponzi, and explosive IRS FOIA documents proving the agency collaborated with Puerto Rico's SIF to shut down Euro Pacific Bank as a PR stunt, with every email focused on publicity strategy rather than any actual wrongdoing.Chapters:00:00 Cold Open Montage00:58 Fed Holds Rates02:47 Powell Stays On05:07 Fed Independence Debate06:17 Inflation Mandate Critique09:38 Reporters And Data11:04 Decades Of CPI Reality15:01 Ad Break Pebble16:43 Powell On His Record20:04 Inflation Fire Economy Weak21:59 Oil Yields And Markets27:18 Gold Silver And EPAM Pitch29:15 Ad Break NetSuite31:05 Trump Spirit Bailout34:10 Bitcoin Conference Reality Check37:21 Saylor Stretch Digital Credit39:44 Ponzi Claims And Warning42:57 Yield Over Bitcoin43:26 IRS FOIA Fight45:58 Explosive Email Evidence47:02 Debanking Timeline49:55 SIF Findings Breakdown57:42 PR Motive Revealed01:06:47 Press Conference Coordination01:16:43 Why This Matters01:20:08 Puerto Rico Potential01:25:12 Final Call To ActionFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #InflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy