Podcasts about Liberation Day

Title: How You Can Win Trump's Tariff War  Summary: The video hosted by Seth Bradley discusses the potential economic implications of President Trump's aggressive tariff policies and how they might present unique opportunities for wealth building in America amidst global economic upheaval. Bradley explains that tariffs—essentially taxes on imports—are economic tools that can protect domestic industries but also lead to broader economic challenges, particularly if not applied thoughtfully. He outlines the dynamics of Trump's tariff strategy, including a systematic and reciprocal approach to trade that could reshape relationships with various countries.   Seth Bradley emphasizes that while the stock market is experiencing volatility and media outlets are reacting negatively, there are underlying opportunities that savvy investors should seize. He advocates for a focus on U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure, energy independence, and advancements in AI and automation as key areas for investment. The video posits that although immediate challenges like inflation and retaliation from trade partners are likely, the long-term outlook sees a potential reshoring of American industry, a reemergence of economic sovereignty, and ultimately an empowered U.S. economy. Links to Watch and Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgWxz_V0lPk&list=PLSfheWyV7beFqERLX4ebBUJ4SmzmF6z8e&index=2 Bullet Point Highlights: Market Volatility: The stock market sees a significant downturn as tariffs take effect, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Tariff Strategy: Trump's tariffs are described as calculated economic warfare, designed to compel countries to negotiate trade terms. Manufacturing Reshoring: The video advocates for investing in U.S.-based manufacturing as companies look to bring jobs back onshore. Energy Independence: Emerging opportunities in U.S. energy production are highlighted amid tariffs hurting foreign oil imports. AI and Automation: The potential for AI-driven solutions to replace expensive offshore labor costs is discussed as a strategic investment avenue. Investment Strategies: Three key strategies are proposed for capitalizing on the unique economic landscape: investing in infrastructure, energy, and AI technologies. Vision for the Future: The potential long-term benefits of Trump's tariff policies are framed as a chance to reset trade imbalances and promote U.S. economic strength. Transcript: (Seth Bradley) Trump just broke the global economy and it might be the best thing to happen to America in decades. The stock market is crashing. China, Mexico, Canada, they're retaliating. The mainstream media is melting down. But the truth, if you understand what's really going on, this might be the single greatest opportunity of the decade to build wealth. So, let's break it down. No fluff, just facts. What's up, big brains? Welcome back to Raise the Bar, where I simplify complex money, legal, and political moves so you   can make power plays in real time. I'm Seth Bradley, securities attorney, founder, and investor, and I quit a multiple six-f figureure big law job to pursue entrepreneurship and a life without limits. Today, I'm giving you the truth about tariffs, Trump's Liberation Day, and how to turn this global shakeup into your personal leverage point. All right, let's get it. Let's start out with the basics. So, what exactly is a tariff? At its core, a tariff is a tax on imports. That's right. It is a tax. When a foreign   company sells goods into the US, the government slaps on a tax, usually a percentage of the total value. So, if a car from Germany costs 50k and there's a 10% tariff, then that car now costs $55,000 to bring into the US. So, who pays the tariff? Well, it's US importers, not the foreign shippers. And yes, it trickles down to you, the consumer, right here in the US. But tariffs aren't just taxes. They're economic weapons. And right now, Trump's using them with either surgical precision or as a nuclear bomb,   depending on how you look at it. All right. To know where you're going to go, you have to know where you come from. Tariffs go way back in American history. It's not anything new. And in fact, before the IRS, tariffs were how we paid for the entire federal government, rather than through, let's say, income taxes, property, capital gains taxes, and all these other taxes that we all just know and love today. Tariffs haven't always resulted in good or bad for the US. It's a mixed bag. Alexander Hamilton pushed for tariffs to protect   US industry. Success, yes. Abraham Lincoln used them to industrialize the North during the Civil War. Success, yes. But in the 1930s, the Smooth Holly Tariff Act backfired hard, triggering a trade war that deepened the Great Depression. So, not always successful. Tariffs can protect jobs and industries, but if they're too extreme or poorly timed, they can tank the economy. So, the key is strategy. And whether or not you believe in Trump, he's playing chess here, not checkers. Something you never   used to associate with Trump is humble, but he has come a long way and is humble enough to at least have some of the greatest economic minds in his corner. So, they have a business-minded mentality, and that's exactly what this is. We need to stop treating the government like it's aing goodwill. It's not here to give you for free, and it's certainly not here to take what's yours. It's here to work for you, for what the people want, and decide through a democratic process what to do. Once upon a time, we literally became a   country because we wanted independence, self-sufficiency, and freedom. We chose to break free from overt taxation, oppression, control, regulation, and government oversight. What's happening in 2025? In case you missed it, let's get caught up right now. Trump has declared Liberation Day and followed up with the most aggressive global tariff policy in modern history. A minimum of 10% tariffs on every import into the US, up to 60% tariffs on China. That changes every single day though. Reciprocal   tariffs on all countries. If a country charges us 25%, we charge them 25% back. But that's not exactly true. And we'll get into more of that later. Canada and Mexico not exempt. This isn't just about China. It's about a full global reset. So the kicker is formula based. Trump's trade team built a publicly disclosed algorithm that adjusts tariff rates based on countries how countries treat the US exports. It's dynamic. is constantly changing. It updates monthly. This isn't random. It's calculated   economic warfare. All right, next. Now that it's in effect, what's happening? Well, you're seeing it. Wall Street is panicking. S&P 500 is down 14% in the first two weeks. Tech stocks are plummeting. Elon Musk just posted on X that supply chain realignment is overdue and this pain is necessary. Mexico is negotiating. Canada's threatening retaliation, but also showing signs of blinking. China, they're digging the toes in, but there's exports that are suffering. You just won't hear all this stuff on CNBC, but you know, many of   these global players are coming to the table. Tariffs are doing exactly what they're designed to do. Force negotiation, good or bad. Trump's move is forcing every country to rethink dependence on the US consumer. And not just that, it's forcing us to rethink how we depend on them. All right, let's set the record straight on a few of these common things that are floating around here. One, tariffs only hurt the other country. That's totally wrong. US businesses and consumers feel the sting, and we will. We are, at least   at first. Sometimes you're going to hear this is just economic nationalism. But that's also wrong. This is about strategic leverage, not about isolating us. Third, it's inflationary in the short term. This is true. But if local supply chains relocize, prices stabilize and strengthen the domestic economy and we'll be good to go. But right now, we're feeling it. Next, tariffs can bring manufacturing back. This is true. Maybe, and we're already seeing US factories reannounced, reopenings in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, places   like that. And we've seen trillions of dollars of investment promises rolling in already. But if this steers us into a deep recession, companies won't have the resources or confidence to build. All right. So, what's my prediction? And some of these aren't even predictions cuz they're happening right now. Are risks, short-term inflation, price increases, stock market volatility, retaliation from trade partners. These things are already happening. So, they're probably just going to escalate for the near future.   But the potential upsides, reshoring of manufacturing, massive supply chain independence, huge massive negotiation leverage for better and at the very least equal trade terms. Stronger US dollars, capital fleas, unstable markets abroad. Those are all massive positives, but they're not going to happen overnight. So, what's my prediction? short-term pain, long-term economic sovereignty, but we're entering a serious rebalancing period, and the US is reasserting its economic power. And while it hurts now, this could finally   reset the broken trade game that's been bleeding our economy dry for decades and would eventually take us down. All right, so what do we do about it? We need to capitalize. So, what are the three smartest ways to capitalize on Trump's 2025 tariffs? There are lots of unknowns and unpredictability in business. But one thing is always true. When there's panic in the streets, there is massive opportunity somewhere and there's going to be wealth transfer. For those with cool heads, fortitude, and discipline, we can win. So, what am I   doing? And what can you do to capitalize on all of this unpredictability? All right. Strategy number one, invest in US manufacturing and infrastructure. Tariffs equal a return to Americanmade. Full stop. Trump's reciprocal tariffs aren't just economic sanctions. They're a forced reshoring event here in the US. Global trade is breaking. Supply chains are rerouting. Countries like China, Mexico, and Canada, they're scrambling to adjust. And meanwhile, America is rebuilding. This is your moment to build   wealth while the rest of the market panics. So, how do we actually do this? Play number one, invest passively in the U in industrial and infrastructure projects. Tap into private equity funds, syndications, or REIT alternatives that focus on, of course, manufacturing facilities, US-based supply chain logistics, cold storage, and warehouse assets, transportation, freight infrastructure, that stuff works, too. These funds are just pouring into the reshoring initiatives, not just from the government, but from Fortune 500   companies rethinking their risk exposure. Play number two for my capital raisers out there. Raise capital for experienced sponsors in the same space. If you're not the operator, but you've got a network, become a capital aggregator. Use SPVS or fund of funds models like TriVest to compliantly pull investor capital into high quality US industrial and infrastructure deals. Bring your network along. Bring limited partners into deals with better terms, higher leverage, and strategic upside. Focus on experienced sponsors. Of   course, do your due diligence. Make sure they have a track record in industrial real estate or again critical infrastructure. All right, play number three. If you have the resources, buy directly. Also got to have the knowhow, right? Focus on manufacturing assets, warehouses near growing ports, logistics hubs, things like that. Make sure you have a boots on the ground partner if it's not you in that local market. Think markets like Columbus, Kansas City. These cities are turning into many powerhouses as global shipping patterns   shift inland. Bonus play, buy dirt where the roads are going. Right? So, if you're into residential and you don't know anything about industrial and you're not comfortable with it, think about residential and mixed juice land near inland ports, new highways, industrial corridors, growth zones, things like that. These plays won't necessarily cash flow day one, but they will appreciate like crazy over the next 3 to 5 years as that infrastructure is finally built out. Strategy number two, energy independence investing. If   manufacturing is the body, energy is the blood, where are you going to power this thing from? Trump's tariffs are slamming foreign oil and renewables equipment. And that gives domestic US producers, especially in oil and gas and renewables such as batteries, an unmatched advantage. And with the world watching this tariff war unfold, there's one thing everyone agrees on. Energy is national security right now. So what do you do? Play number one, invest passively, of course, in US energy assets, oil and gas royalties, own a   slice of production without the drilling risk. You have to dig deep into those documents and see what you're getting yourself into. There's a lot of different oil and gas funds that are structured in different ways and have different tax incentives versus cash flow. So, make sure you dig deep into that. Also look at battery manufacturers like Stack Rack Battery, especially US-based ones, solar developers, those leveraging domestic supply chains. Look for funds and startups focused on energy independence, not just ESG headlines.   Real world example, I had mentioned StackRrack battery. I co-founded StackRrack, a US-based modular battery company. And we're not just producing batteries, we're part of the national grid modernized push. Our battery systems are designed, they're assembled, and they're shipped right here in the US. We're ULcertified, scalable, and recession resistant. And tariffs just gave us a built-in mode. This is exactly what happens when policy meets opportunity. You just have to open your eyes and find those right opportunities.   And a bonus here, tax credit tailwinds. The US is still offering massive tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, for now at least. Pair that with import based price increases and you've got a once in a decade profit window. And building on that, what's your capital aggregator play? If you don't want to operate, partner with fund managers or sponsors deploying capital into these sectors, be the legal, the capital raising or the strategic partner in high demand governmentbacked tariff fueled energy projects. My law firm,   Raise Law, can help you build any capital raising structure you can imagine. So feel free to reach out. All right, strategy number three, back or build AIdriven alternatives to offshore labor. Tariffs don't just hit goods, they hit services, too. Let me explain. Think about it. If China, Mexico, or Canada are now more expensive to work with because of reciprocal tariffs, that raises the cost of offshore labor. So, enter what's happening right now. AI, automation, US-based software. This is your moment to kill the middleman.   Reduce labor cost and automate what is already going to be offshored. This is your moment to kill the middleman. Reduce labor cost and automate what was once offshored in different countries. So here we go. Play number one. Build or invest in AI tools that replace outsource labor. Think about jobs like customer service, document review and data entry, uh logistics coordination, manufacturing floor labor, things like that. It's not sci-fi. The LLMs and the manufacturing robotics are ready today and the opportunity is right now. All   right, so step-by-step action plan. Identify high friction outsource tasks that just got more expensive. Right. Next, what's the capital aggregator play? partner with early stage AI founders or companies. Use your network expertise or capital raising jobs to make strategic investments or even try to leverage an advisory equity position or a role in a startup in these sectors. I've done it and feel free to reach out and I can tell you more about how I've done it. So, pro tip though, don't just invest in AI for the sake of it. Invest   in AI that displaces foreign labor. That's where the pressure is. That's where the real value will be. This is the moment most people will fear. We're in it right now and a few smart ones will capitalize. Tariffs are just the first shot in a major larger realignment. And if you're able to stay calm, not get caught up in all the political nonsense. This is a time where real wealth changes hands. Keep your mind clear, keep your eyes open, and if this breakdown helped you see the game clearer, smash that subscribe button,   drop a comment with your take on Trump's global economic strategy, and let me know, are you playing offense or defense? Keep your head in the game. Raise the bar, baby. Until next time, enjoy the journey. [Music] Links from the Show and Guest Info and Links: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgWxz_V0lPk&list=PLSfheWyV7beFqERLX4ebBUJ4SmzmF6z8e&index=2 https://www.facebook.com/sethbradleyesq/posts/pfbid02RZL2XfebNjV7orN7Ze4Ue8z437ZobHSQoDoCZWwLNwG1VgsshZrRMSkyeGkydwZGl https://www.instagram.com/p/DIUN1PvTvgQ/ https://x.com/sethbradleyesq/status/1910758713683746925 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sethbradleyesq_tariffs-trump2025-donaldtrump-activity-7316522747164086272-47ae?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAKVay0BMf-qnL2v6W-30PvVRZnCs0eCFQU https://x.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.youtube.com/@sethbradleyesq www.facebook.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.threads.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.instagram.com/sethbradleyesq/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethbradleyesq/ https://passiveincomeattorney.com/seth-bradley/ https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/sethbradleyesq https://medium.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.tiktok.com/@sethbradleyesq?lang=en

TopicsLive Monthly Exopolitics Briefing - 3I/Atlas Alien Invasion Scare https://t.co/CBJLaEzoXD Here's a succinct message about remembering the infinite source intelligence that is inside us and not giving power away to external forces, Anunnaki, gods, ET federations, etc. https://t.co/pvXLRgzrqQ More ET humor. https://t.co/qmqNXzRdMs 3I Atlas: US Navy "Jedi" Admiral's Lead Starship Coming Home: Interview with George Kavassilas: https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1954866692577742874 An insightful channeled message of why scientists have detected the absence of whales singing off the California coast. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955084350787031512 President Donald Trump said: “I'm announcing a historic action to rescue our nation's capital from crime, bloodshed, bedlam, and squalor, and worse. This is Liberation Day in DC, and we're going to take our capital back.” https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955236492374086047 JP (ret. US Army) shares more about his experiences in a med-bed that healed some of his injuries acquired during his covert service. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955256399363277235 White House orders a more aggressive review of Smithsonian museums holdings which has much exopolitical significance. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955413475854848430 My interview on Redacted discussing the exopolitical implications of President Trump federalizing the Washington DC police and liberating the nation's capital.Live Monthly Exopolitics Briefing - 3I/Atlas Alien Invasion Scare https://t.co/CBJLaEzoXD Another video by JP (ret. US Army) describing the different functions of space arks and their locations https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955841821373878757 Nordics taking charge of Space Arks, Deep State and AI - Interview with Alex Collier https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955956253567431079 Congresswoman Anna Luna shares some of her personal conclusions regarding her investigations into UFOs/UAPs https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955974189535367653 The US Congress is having difficulties in scheduling whistleblowers to testify in SCIF facilities or hearings about UFOs. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1956321419823837467 The next semester of classes to gain an Exopolitics Certificate/Diploma begin on Sept 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXGNFPF3B8A Here's compelling evidence that the collective consciousness of humanity is getting ready for extraterrestrial disclosure. We are very close. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1956364355768918474 Join Dr. Salla on Patreon for Early Releases, Webinar Perks and More.Visit https://Patreon.com/MichaelSalla/

(The Center Square) – “Liberation Day” arrived Monday in Washington, D.C., as declared by President Donald Trump. The president declared a crime emergency in the district and said the National Guard will soon patrol the streets in an effort to curb crime. Flanked by U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, FBI Director Kash Patel, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll and U.S. Attorney of the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro, the president announced that he is invoking the D.C. Home Rule Act to take federal control of Metropolitan Police Department while deploying the National Guard, with threats more military could be called in to assist.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Full story: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_3c536cf9-3612-4652-a12c-23f66a96ef33.html

President Trump declared a public safety emergency in Washington, D.C., placing the Metropolitan Police under federal control and deploying 800 National Guard troops. President Trump cited the Home Rule Act to justify the move, calling it “Liberation Day” and vowing to restore order and beauty to the capital. Please Like, Comment and Follow 'Broeske & Musson' on all platforms: --- The ‘Broeske & Musson Podcast’ is available on the KMJNOW app, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever else you listen to podcasts. --- ‘Broeske & Musson' Weekdays 9-11 AM Pacific on News/Talk 580 AM & 105.9 FM KMJ | Facebook | Podcast| X | - Everything KMJ KMJNOW App | Podcasts | Facebook | X | Instagram See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Although tariff negotiations continue, deals are being made, shifting investor focus on assessing the fallout. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen consider the ripple effects on inflation and the bond market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today, how are tariffs impacting the economy and what it means for bond markets? It's Wednesday, August 13th at 10:30am in New York. Michael, we've been talking about how the near-term uncertainty around tariff levels has come down. Tariff deals are, of course, still pending with some major U.S. trading partners like China; but agreements are starting to come together. And though there's lots of ways they could break over time, in the near-term, deals like the one with Europe signal that the U.S. might be happy for several months with what's been arranged. And so, the range of outcomes has shrunk. The U.S.' current effective tariff rate of 16 percent is about where we thought we'd be at year end. But that's substantially higher than the roughly 3 percent we started the year with. So, not as bad as it looked like it could have been after tariffs were announced on April 2nd, but still substantially higher. Now's the time when investors should stay away from chasing tariff headlines and guessing what the President might do next; and instead focus on assessing the impact of what's been done. With that as the backdrop, we got some relevant data yesterday, the Consumer Price Index for July. You were expecting that this would show some clear signs of tariffs pushing prices higher. Why was that? Michael Gapen: Well, we did analysis on the 2018-2019 tariff episode. So, in looking at the input-output tables, which give you an idea of how prices move through certain sectors of the economy, and applying that to the 2018 episode of tariffs – we got the result that you should see some tariff inflation in June, and then sequentially more as we move into the late summer and the early fall. So, the short answer, Mike, is a model based plus history-based exercise – that said yes, we should start seeing the effects of tariffs on those categories, where the direct effect is high. So that'd be most of your goods categories. Over time, as we move into later this year or early next year, it'll be more important to think about indirect effects, if any. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, the July CPI data that came out yesterday, then did it corroborate this view? Michael Gapen: Yes and no. So, I'm an economist, so I have to do a two-handed view on this. So yes… Michael Zezas: Always fair. Michael Gapen: Always, yes. So, yes, core goods prices rose by two-tenths on the month, in June they also rose by two-tenths. Prior to this goods' prices were largely flat with some of the big durables, items like autos being negative, right? So, we had all the give back following COVID. So, the prior trend was flat to negative. The last two months, they've shown two-tenths increases. And we've seen upward pressure on things like household furnishings, apparel. We saw a strong used car print this month, motor vehicle and repairs. So, all of that suggests that tariffs are starting to flow through. Now, we didn't – on the other hand – is we didn't get as much as we thought. New car prices were flat and maybe those price increases will be delayed until models – the 2026 models start hitting the lot. That would be September or later. And we didn't actually; I said apparel. Apparel was up stronger last month. It really wasn't up all that much this month. So, the CPI data for July corroborated the view that the inflation pass through is happening. Where I think it didn't answer the question is how much of it are we going to get and should we expect a lot of it to be front loaded? Or is this going to be a longer process? Michael Zezas: Got it. And then, does that mean that tariffs aren't having the sort of aggregate impact on the economy that many thought they would? Or is maybe the composition of that impact different? So, maybe prices aren't going up so much, but companies are managing those costs in other ways. How would you break that down? Michael Gapen: We would say, and our view is that, yes, you know, we have written down a forecast. And we used our modeling in the 2018-20 19 episode to tell us what's a reasonable forecast for how quickly and to what degree these tariffs should show up in inflation. But obviously, this has been a substantial move in tariffs. They didn't start all at once. They've come in different phases and there's a lot of lags here. So, I just think there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. So, I wouldn't conclude that tariffs are not having the effect we thought they would. I think it's way too early and would be incorrect to conclude, just [be]cause we've had relatively modest tariff pressures in June and July, inflation that we can be sanguine and say it's not a big deal and we should just move on.Michael Zezas: And even so, is it fair to say that there's still plenty of evidence that this is weighing on growth in the way you anticipated? Michael Gapen: I think so. I mean, it's clear the economy has moderated. If we kind of strip out the volatility and trade and inventories, final sales to domestic purchasers 1.5 in the first quarter. It was 1.1 in the second quarter, and a lot of that slowdown was related to spending by the consumer. And a slowdown in business spending. So that that could be a little more, maybe about policy uncertainty and not knowing exactly what to do and how to plan. But it also we think is reflected in a slowdown, in the pace of hiring. So, I would say, you got the policy uncertainty shock first. That also came through the effect of the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs, which probably caused a freeze in hiring and spending activity for a bit. And now I would say we're moving into the part of the world where the actual increase in tariffs are going to happen. So, we'll know whether or not firms can pass these prices along or not. If they can't, we'll probably get a weaker labor market. If they can, we'll continue to see it in inflation.But Mike, let me ask you a question now. You've had all the fun. Let me turn the table. Michael Zezas: Fair enough. Michael Gapen: How much does it matter for you or your team, whether or not these tariffs are pushing prices higher? And/or delaying cuts from the Fed. How do you think about that on your side? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so this question of composition and lags is really interesting. I think though that if the end state here is as you forecast – that we'll end up with weaker growth, and as a consequence, the Fed will embark on a substantial rate cutting program. Then the direction of travel for bond yields from here is still lower. So, if that's the case, then obviously this would be a favorable backdrop for owners of U.S. treasury bonds. It's probably also good news for owners of corporate credit, but the story's a bit trickier here. If yields move lower on weaker growth, but we ultimately avoid a recession, this might be the sweet spot for corporate credit. You've got fundamental strength holding that limits credit risk, and so you get performance from all in yields declining – both the yield expressed by the risk-free rate, as well as the credit spread. But if we tipped into recession, then naturally we'd expect there to be a repricing of all risk in the market. You'd expect there to be some expression of fundamental weakness and credit spreads would widen. So, government bonds would've been a better product to own in that environment.But, of course, Michael, we have to consider alternative outcomes where yields go higher, and this would turn into a bad environment for bond returns that would appear to be most likely in the scenario where U.S. growth actually ticks higher, resetting expectations for monetary policy in a more hawkish direction.So, what do you think investors should watch for that would lead to that outcome? Is it something like an AI productivity boom or maybe something else that's not on our radar? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so I think that is something investors do have to think about; and let me frame one way to think about that – where ex-post any easing by the Fed as early as September might be retroactively viewed as a policy mistake, right? So, we can say, yes, tariffs should slow down growth and maybe that happens in the second half of this year. The Fed maybe eases rates as a pre-emptive measure or risk management approach to avoid too much weakness in the labor market. So even though the Fed is seeing firming inflation now, which it is. It could ease in September, maybe again in December [be]cause it's worried about the labor market. So maybe that's what dominates 2025. And, and like you said, perhaps in the very near term, continues to pull bond prices lower. But what if we get into 2026 and the tariff effect or the tariff drag on growth fades, and the consumer begins to accelerate. So, we don't have a recession, we just get a bit of a divot in growth and then the economy recovers. Then fiscal policy kicks in, right? We don't think the One Big, Beautiful Bill act will provide a lot of stimulus, but we could be wrong. It could kickstart animal spirits and bring forward a lot of business spending. And then maybe AI, as you said; that could be a combining factor and financial conditions would be very easy in that world, in part – given that the Fed has eased, right? So that that could be a world where, you know, growth is modest, but it's firming. Inflation that's moved up to about 3 percent or maybe a little bit higher later this year kind of stays there. And then retroactively, the problem is the Fed eased financial conditions into that and inflation's kind of stuck around 3 percent. Bond yields – at least the long end – would probably react negatively in that world. Michael Zezas: Yeah, that makes perfect sense to us. Well, Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk with me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

It's Wednesday, August 13th, A.D. 2025. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Jonathan Clark Indian jailor and guards beats five pastors Five pastors in central India were assaulted in custody last month.  It all began when a Hindu mob disrupted a church service. Authorities responded by arresting the pastors and slapping them with false charges of forced conversions! Then, the jailor and guards beat the ministers.  One pastor told Morning Star News, “They grabbed the opportunity, and without any trial or evidence beat us mercilessly, simply because we are Christians. … Here in Chhattisgarh [State], they are targeting all the smaller churches. … Hindu extremists target every private celebration taking place in Christian homes.” Please pray for our persecuted brothers and sisters in Christ in India. The country is ranked 11th on the Open Doors' World Watch List of the most difficult countries worldwide to be a Christian.  Proverbs 17:15 says, “He who justifies the wicked, and he who condemns the just, both of them alike are an abomination to the LORD.” Armenia and Azerbaijan sign historic peace deal at White House The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration for peace at the White House last Friday.  U.S. President Donald Trump called the agreement “historic” as it aims to end decades of conflict between the two southwestern Asian countries.  Armenia and Azerbaijan also signed economic agreements with the U.S., opening the region to American businesses.  Listen to comments from President Trump. TRUMP: “For more than 35 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a bitter conflict that resulted in tremendous suffering for both nations. They suffered gravely for so many years. Many tried to find a resolution. … They were unsuccessful. But with this accord, we've finally succeeded in making peace.” Trump cracks down on D.C. crime President Trump announced plans on Monday to crack down on crime in Washington, D.C. National Guard members arrived at the nation's capital yesterday. Trump also put the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia under federal control.  President Trump said, “This is Liberation Day in D.C. and we're going to take our capital back.” The White House noted, “If Washington, D.C. was a state, it would have the highest homicide rate of any state in the nation.” 415 hostile incidents against U.S. churches in 2024 The Family Research Council released their latest report on hostility against churches in the United States. Last year, American churches faced 415 hostile incidents. That's down from 485 incidents in 2023 but up from 50 incidents in 2018. Incidents included vandalism, arson, gun-related incidents, and bomb threats. Tony Perkins, the president of Family Research Council, remarked, “The American woke Left has been intentional in spreading its hostility toward the Christian faith throughout every corner of America. … Christians must … demand more from their government leaders when it comes to … preventing criminal acts targeting religious freedom.” 77th city becomes sanctuary for the unborn Life News reports that Douglassville, Texas became the 77th city in the U.S. to ban abortion last Tuesday.  The city council of Douglassville unanimously passed an ordinance to become a Sanctuary City for the Unborn. (You can send a quick one-sentence email of thanks to the City Council members through a special link in our transcript today at www.TheWorldview.com) The ordinance prohibits elective abortions in the city limits. It also bans abortions on Douglassville residents, regardless of where the abortion takes place.  Pastor Heston McLaurin of Douglassville Fellowship Church said, “I thank the Lord for every step forward in defending the lives of unborn children. Proverbs 6:17 says that God hates ‘hands that shed innocent blood' and He is the defender of the helpless.” Americans get majority of calories from ultra-processed foods New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that Americans get most of their calories from ultra-processed foods. Such foods include sandwiches and burgers, sweet bakery products, savory snacks, pizza, and sweetened beverages. Americans get 55 percent of their calories from these ultra-processed foods. That number rose to nearly 62 percent for kids through age 18. 438th baptism anniversary of Indian named Manteo And finally, today marks the 438th anniversary of the baptism of a notable Native American.  Manteo received baptism on August 13, 1587, into the Church of England on Roanoke Island. It was considered the first baptism in the new world and the first baptism of an Indian into the Church of England. The Algonquian Indian helped English settlers at Roanoke make it through a harsh winter in 1585. Manteo also became one of the first Indians to ever visit England. He is remembered as a stalwart friend of the English in the new world. Close And that's The Worldview on this Wednesday, August 13th, in the year of our Lord 2025. Follow us on X or subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

Time Stamps:7:43 - Liberation Day in DC16:09 - Neuro-linguistic programming (NLP)22:29 - Subterranean Sex Abuse32:34 - McMartin Tunnels/Monarch Mind Control36:15 - One Nation Under Stockholm Syndrome41:41 - Waco--Ruby Ridge--9/1148:02 - The Jonestown Massacre56:30 - Postmortem/Call-in Portion1:07:38 - Natacha Jaitt's Suspicious Death1:13:20 - PragerU's White House Partnership1:25:00 - CDC Shooting/RFK Jr. Cancels $500 million in mRNA Vaccine Funding1:53:31 - Ghislaine Maxwell's Work Release Program2:10:23 - Jeffrey Epstein's HandlerVenture into the shadowy realms of power and secrecy with Already Dead, where hosts Jose Galison (@towergangjose) and Austin Picard (@theatrethugawp) dissect the intricate web of conspiracy, covert operations, and the underlying political machinations that might just be pulling the strings of our society.What to Expect:Live Listener Interaction: Call in to share your theories, ask burning questions, or discuss personal experiences related to the topics at hand. In-Depth Explorations: Each episode focuses on a different conspiracy or hidden aspect of political history, offering a platform to question and analyze what's often left unsaid. Thought-Provoking Guests: We invite individuals with insider knowledge or those who've taken the red pill to discuss topics that range from the fringe to the forefront of conspiracy culture. Critical Analysis of Current Affairs: We don't just report on events; we interpret them through the lens of parapolitics, looking for patterns and hidden agendas.Join Us:Every Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET, dive into the depths of the unknown with us. Subscribe, participate in our live call-ins, and be part of a community that seeks to understand the world beyond the surface narrative.Disclaimer: This podcast thrives on speculation, hypothesis, and the examination of alternative theories. It's meant to provoke thought and encourage personal research. Not all discussed is proven fact, but rather a call to question, explore, and understand.Warning: For those not ready to challenge their worldview, tread carefully. Once you enter the world of Already Dead, you might find that the truth is often already dead to the uninitiated. Welcome aboard, where curiosity is your guide.Please consider supporting our work-Austin's Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/TheUnderclassPodcastAustin's Spreaker: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-underclass-podcast--6511540Austin's Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/TheUnderclassPodcastAustin's YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheUnderclassPodcast#LiberationDay #ModernManchurian #ManchurianCandidate #NLP #NeurolinguisticProgramming #Nueralink #BigBalls #SubterraneanSexAbuse #McMartinTunnels #MonarchMindControl #StockholmSyndrome #Waco #RubyRidge #Jonestown #NatachaJaitt #PragerU #CDCShooting #mRNAVaccine #GhislaineMaxwell #JeffreyEpsteinBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-underclass-podcast--6511540/support.

Time Stamps:7:43 - Liberation Day in DC16:09 - Neuro-linguistic programming (NLP)22:29 - Subterranean Sex Abuse32:34 - McMartin Tunnels/Monarch Mind Control36:15 - One Nation Under Stockholm Syndrome41:41 - Waco--Ruby Ridge--9/1148:02 - The Jonestown Massacre56:30 - Postmortem/Call-in Portion1:07:38 - Natacha Jaitt's Suspicious Death1:13:20 - PragerU's White House Partnership1:25:00 - CDC Shooting/RFK Jr. Cancels $500 million in mRNA Vaccine Funding1:53:31 - Ghislaine Maxwell's Work Release Program2:10:23 - Jeffrey Epstein's HandlerVenture into the shadowy realms of power and secrecy with Already Dead, where hosts Jose Galison (@towergangjose) and Austin Picard (@theatrethugawp) dissect the intricate web of conspiracy, covert operations, and the underlying political machinations that might just be pulling the strings of our society.What to Expect:Live Listener Interaction: Call in to share your theories, ask burning questions, or discuss personal experiences related to the topics at hand.In-Depth Explorations: Each episode focuses on a different conspiracy or hidden aspect of political history, offering a platform to question and analyze what's often left unsaid.Thought-Provoking Guests: We invite individuals with insider knowledge or those who've taken the red pill to discuss topics that range from the fringe to the forefront of conspiracy culture.Critical Analysis of Current Affairs: We don't just report on events; we interpret them through the lens of parapolitics, looking for patterns and hidden agendas.Join Us: Every Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET, dive into the depths of the unknown with us. Subscribe, participate in our live call-ins, and be part of a community that seeks to understand the world beyond the surface narrative.Disclaimer: This podcast thrives on speculation, hypothesis, and the examination of alternative theories. It's meant to provoke thought and encourage personal research. Not all discussed is proven fact, but rather a call to question, explore, and understand. Warning: For those not ready to challenge their worldview, tread carefully. Once you enter the world of Already Dead, you might find that the truth is often already dead to the uninitiated. Welcome aboard, where curiosity is your guide.Check out nadeaushaveco.com today & use code Jose for 10% off your entire order!!!Please consider supporting my work- Patreon- https://www.patreon.com/nowayjose2020Only costs $2/month and will get you access to episodes earlier than the public No Way, Jose! Rumble Channel- https://rumble.com/c/c-3379274 No Way, Jose! YouTube Channel- https://youtube.com/channel/UCzyrpy3eo37eiRTq0cXff0gMy Podcast Host- https://redcircle.com/shows/no-way-joseApple podcasts- https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/no-way-jose/id1546040443Spotify- https://open.spotify.com/show/0xUIH4pZ0tM1UxARxPe6ThStitcher- https://www.stitcher.com/show/no-way-jose-2Amazon Music- https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/41237e28-c365-491c-9a31-2c6ef874d89d/No-Way-JoseGoogle Podcasts- https://www.google.com/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9mZWVkcy5yZWRjaXJjbGUuY29tL2ZkM2JkYTE3LTg2OTEtNDc5Ny05Mzc2LTc1M2ExZTE4NGQ5Yw%3D%3DRadioPublic- https://radiopublic.com/no-way-jose-6p1BAO Vurbl- https://vurbl.com/station/4qHi6pyWP9B/Feel free to contact me at thelibertymovementglobal@gmail.com#LiberationDay #ModernManchurian #ManchurianCandidate #NLP #NeurolinguisticProgramming #Nueralink #BigBalls #SubterraneanSexAbuse #McMartinTunnels #MonarchMindControl #StockholmSyndrome #Waco #RubyRidge #Jonestown #NatachaJaitt #PragerU #CDCShooting #mRNAVaccine #GhislaineMaxwell #JeffreyEpstein

Join Opie for a hilarious and heartfelt episode of the Opie Radio podcast, live from Long Island! Fresh off a day of boating and bonding with his brother and kids to honor his late father, Opie dives into a whirlwind of rants and riffs. From the absurd tragedy of Ron the Waiter's shark encounter to a metal detector guy unearthing a 1969 college ring, Opie spares no one—not even Taylor Swift or the Kelsey brothers' podcasting antics. He marvels at a real-life Grand Theft Auto chase in LA, questions the relevance of TV traffic reports in the Google Maps era, and crowns an unlikely hero at AOL for finally pulling the plug on dial-up. Expect sharp humor, nostalgic vibes, and Opie's unfiltered take on life, loss, and the absurdities of 2025

Becky Weiss breaks down the Supreme Court's latest gay marriage drama while President Trump takes center stage in D.C. with a fiery Liberation Day presser — torching Democrats' soft-on-crime policies, exposing the absurdity of cash bail, and facing down a packed press room.We call out Washington Post hypocrisy, mock the Left's bizarre “pots and pans at 8 p.m.” protest plan, and dive into Judge Jeanine's takedown of D.C.'s crime stats. Patel blows the lid off Adam Schiff's alleged leaks of classified intel to hurt Trump, while Gavin Newsom faces ridicule for threatening to redistrict California.Plus:-Charlie Kirk takes Newsom to task-Trump's gold upgrades inside the White House-Adults de-stressing with pacifiers (yes, really)-TikTok melts down over DOGE coin cuts-Brittney Griner's child sparks headlines calling her “pops”-Cristiano Ronaldo's fiancée's massive engagement ring-Jennifer Welch gets roasted for “white savior complex”-Hunter Biden on AI stealing jobs-Doctors feel the AI squeeze-TikTok users complain about… having a job-Laura Loomer joins the fight against Marjorie Taylor GreeneAnd Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes' viral spat — and Candace playing victimSUPPORT OUR SPONSORS TO SUPPORT OUR SHOW!Stay hurricane-ready and be prepared for any emergency with ReadyWise. Visit https://ReadyWise.com and use promo code CHICKS10 for 10% off your entire purchase.Experience your dream bedding and stay cool all night long with Buffy's breathable, eco-friendly comforters and sheets. Get 20% off your first Buffy order using code CHICKS at https://Buffy.coTry Beam's best-selling Creatine and get up to 30% off at https://ShopBeam.com/CHICKS with code CHICKS—limited time only!

On today's Top News in 10, we cover: President Donald Trump declares a state of emergency in Washington, DC to restore safety and protect public servants, citizens, and tourists from crime.  President Trump also announces he will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15 to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine. Keep Up With The Daily Signal Sign up for our email newsletters:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.dailysignal.com/email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠   Subscribe to our other shows:  The Tony Kinnett Cast: https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL2284199939 The Signal Sitdown: https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL2026390376   Problematic Women:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL7765680741   Victor Davis Hanson: https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL9809784327     Follow The Daily Signal:    X:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://x.com/intent/user?screen_name=DailySignal Instagram:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.instagram.com/thedailysignal/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Facebook:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.facebook.com/TheDailySignalNews/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Truth Social:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://truthsocial.com/@DailySignal⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  YouTube:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/dailysignal?sub_confirmation=1    Subscribe on your favorite podcast platform and never miss an episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

-President Donald Trump orders the National Guard and federal law enforcement to take over policing in the capital, calling it “Liberation Day in D.C.” -Newsmax reporter Mike Carter joins on the Newsmax hotline, sharing personal stories of street crime and reactions from residents, while questioning the authenticity of organized protests against the Guard's deployment. Today's podcast is sponsored by : BIRCH GOLD - Protect and grow your retirement savings with gold. Text ROB to 98 98 98 for your FREE information kit! GREEN CHEF MEAL KITS: Make this summer your healthiest yet with Green Chef. Head to http://greenchef.com/50NEWSMAX and use code 50NEWSMAX to get fifty percent off your first month, then twenty percent off for two months with free shipping. To call in and speak with Rob Carson live on the show, dial 1-800-922-6680 between the hours of 12 Noon and 3:00 pm Eastern Time Monday through Friday…E-mail Rob Carson at : RobCarsonShow@gmail.com Musical parodies provided by Jim Gossett (www.patreon.com/JimGossettComedy) Listen to Newsmax LIVE and see our entire podcast lineup at http://Newsmax.com/Listen Make the switch to NEWSMAX today! Get your 15 day free trial of NEWSMAX+ at http://NewsmaxPlus.com Looking for NEWSMAX caps, tees, mugs & more? Check out the Newsmax merchandise shop at : http://nws.mx/shop Follow NEWSMAX on Social Media:  -Facebook: http://nws.mx/FB  -X/Twitter: http://nws.mx/twitter -Instagram: http://nws.mx/IG -YouTube: https://youtube.com/NewsmaxTV -Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/NewsmaxTV -TRUTH Social: https://truthsocial.com/@NEWSMAX -GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/newsmax -Threads: http://threads.net/@NEWSMAX  -Telegram: http://t.me/newsmax  -BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/newsmax.com -Parler: http://app.parler.com/newsmax Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From the first futures in 1848 to today's zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market's periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe's new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024's “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility's inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market's next move before price does.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 59:42 - Introduction to the series02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going?10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool18:55 - The history of the VIX index23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge optionsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...

Becky Weiss breaks down the Supreme Court's latest gay marriage drama while President Trump takes center stage in D.C. with a fiery Liberation Day presser — torching Democrats' soft-on-crime policies, exposing the absurdity of cash bail, and facing down a packed press room. We call out Washington Post hypocrisy, mock the Left's bizarre “pots and […]

On today's Top News in 10, we cover: President Donald Trump declares a state of emergency in Washington, DC to restore safety and protect public servants, citizens, and tourists from crime.  President Trump also announces he will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15 to discuss ending the conflict […]

President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” in Washington, D.C., issuing a public safety emergency, taking temporary federal control of the city’s police force, and deploying 800 National Guard troops—despite falling violent crime rates. Critics, as well as the mayor of Washington D.C., blasted the action as politically motivated overreach, citing the city's current downward crime trend and potential encroachment on local democracy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rickey Smiley and the crew spoke about various topics on The Rickey Smiley Morning Show Podcast today. President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” in Washington, D.C., issuing a public safety emergency, taking temporary federal control of the city’s police force, and deploying 800 National Guard troops—despite falling violent crime rates. Critics, as well as the mayor of Washington D.C., blasted the action as politically motivated overreach, citing the city's current downward crime trend and potential encroachment on local democracy. Rumors of a divorce between Alicia Keys and Swizz Beatz have been floated online—but sources close to the couple insist that the 15-year marriage remains solid and the divorce chatter is internet fiction. Chris Brown teamed up with his daughter Royalty and influencer MD Motivator to surprise a struggling single mother and her daughter—offering them $10,000, a special meet-and-greet at his “Breezy Bowl XX Tour,” and a brand-new car, creating an unforgettable night. Website: https://www.urban1podcasts.com/rickey-smiley-morning-show See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

0:00 - Trump announces "Liberation Day" in DC 9:06 - Trump on DC: It's embarrassing DC is such a disgusting pit 28:05 - Trump threatens to do the same in Chicago 53:41 - Senior writer for the Dispatch, David Drucker, on Trump's DC takeover announcement - "he takes an issue in which he might achieve broad support and he talks about it in a way that ensures that only his supporters are going to like it" Follow David on X @DavidMDrucker 01:09:01 - In-depth History with Frank from Arlington Heights 01:11:33 - Russiagate-Schiff 01:28:15 - Ted Dabrowski, President of Wirepoints, outlines bold steps the Trump administration should take if it turns its attention to Chicago like it has to DC. Get Ted’s latest at wirepoints.org 01:46:01 - Theodore Dalrymple, contributing editor of City Journal & a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, on Luigi Mangione and the Romance of Murder. Theodore is also the author of many books including Buried But Not Quite Dead: Forgotten Writers of Père Lachaise 02:00:19 - SPORTS & POLITICSSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On "The Tara Show," the host discusses the president's federal crime crackdown in Washington, D.C., and his declaration of "Liberation Day." The show highlights the President's plan to start by ending cash bail and addressing what he refers to as the "third worldification" of American cities. He argues that these issues are not simply "soft on crime" but rather a manifestation of classic Marxism, which he claims is a deliberate attempt to undermine the justice system. The host points to D.C. laws, such as those that allow probation for shootings and treat 20-year-olds as juveniles, as evidence of this ideological shift. The episode features an interview clip with Gregory Pemberton, the head of the D.C. Police Union, who expresses his full support for the federal intervention. Pemberton states that D.C.'s crime is "out of control" and that the city council's past policies have "handcuffed police officers," leading to a severe shortage of personnel. The host also connects these domestic issues to international politics, drawing parallels between the D.C. situation and what he describes as the "Venezuela model" of governance, where the ruling party merges with criminal enterprises. The discussion concludes with a look at the president's broader strategy to combat these issues, including his handling of the upcoming Olympics in Los Angeles

On "The Tara Show," the host provides a comprehensive look at what he sees as the critical challenges facing the United States, from domestic policy to international relations. The show features an extensive discussion of the president's federal crime crackdown in Washington, D.C., which the host frames as "Liberation Day." He argues that the city's high crime rates are not accidental but a result of deliberate "Marxist" policies that have been covered up through the manipulation of crime statistics by D.C. officials. The host supports this claim with an interview clip from the head of the D.C. Police Union, who expresses support for the federal intervention. The show extends this critique to other Democrat-run cities and international leaders, linking their policies to a broader ideological agenda. The show also explores the theme of political and economic deception, praising the president's appointment of Dr. E.J. Antoni to the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a move to restore integrity to economic data that the host alleges was previously fabricated for political purposes. He also discusses the ongoing trade war with China, attributing the U.S.'s vulnerability to a long-standing dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals. The host praises the administration's efforts to regain energy independence by reviving domestic coal projects. Throughout the show, the host repeatedly criticizes Republican Senate leadership, specifically Senator John Thune, for blocking the president's appointments, which he describes as a political "hostage situation." The episode ultimately frames these issues as a struggle for America's future, where political and economic honesty are pitted against a globalist, "Marxist" agenda.

In response to a fatal shooting, the President announces a federal takeover of law enforcement in Washington, D.C., and deploys the National Guard, FBI, and ATF. He labels the initiative "Liberation Day," aiming to "take our capital back" from what he describes as "crime, bloodshed, bedlam, and squalor." While the D.C. Mayor and City Council condemn the move as an unwarranted "manufactured intrusion" on local authority, citing a decrease in violent crime, the D.C. police union and other federal law enforcement officials express their full support. The radio show further delves into the political and ideological aspects of the crackdown. Critics of D.C.'s local policies, including a former U.S. Assistant Attorney General and a U.S. Attorney for D.C., argue that the city's crime issues are a deliberate result of what they characterize as a "Marxist" ideology within the Democratic party. They claim these policies intentionally weaken law enforcement and the justice system to benefit specific political interests. The conversation also extends to national economic policy, with a focus on the recent appointment of E.J. Antoni to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and accusations that past economic data was politically manipulated. The speakers also criticize Republican Senate leadership for allegedly obstructing the President's appointments, suggesting it is a form of political hostage-taking.

On today's Quick Start podcast: NEWS: President Trump takes unprecedented action to combat violent crime in Washington, D.C., seizing emergency control of the police force and deploying the National Guard. FOCUS: NFL preseason game halted as players drop to their knees in prayer after a horrifying on-field injury. MAIN THING: Former psychic medium Jenn Nizza reveals the hidden dangers of occult influences in pop culture — and why she's sounding the alarm for parents and the church. LAST THING: Luke 12:27-28 — God's reminder to trust His provision. PRAY WITH US! Faithwire.substack.com SHOW LINKS Faith in Culture: https://cbn.com/news/faith-culture Heaven Meets Earth PODCAST: https://cbn.com/lp/heaven-meets-earth NEWSMAKERS POD: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/newsmakers/id1724061454 Navigating Trump 2.0: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/navigating-trump-2-0/id1691121630

The House and Senate continue to gavel in just to keep President Trump from making recess appointments. Dr. Phil debates ICE raids with Bill Maher. Trump and Russia's Putin to meet this week in Alaska. International pushback on tariffs. Texas Democrats seem to be losing the PR battle over Texas Democrats. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is more popular than the pope? What the mRNA vaccines are doing inside bodies. Home confinement for a man who violently attacked two elderly men in front of a Planned Parenthood. President Trump vows to clean up Washington, D.C., after a recent crime surge. NASCAR driver breaks collarbone celebrating. Apollo astronaut Jim Lovell passes away. Another successful SpaceX launch today. Here comes 3I/Atlas … everybody panic! OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on kids and AI. First female MLB umpire makes her debut. AOC campaign adviser arrested for terroristic threats against Jewish schoolchildren. JD Vance leads all prospective Democrats for 2028. 00:00 Pat Gray UNLEASHED! 00:22 New Pat Gray BINGO! Card 05:44 Glenn Beck's Inspection of Kris Cruz 06:55 House & Senate Gaveled In 10:59 Nancy Pelosi & Tom Homan Good Morning Meme 13:51 Dr. Phil Calls Out Bill Maher 19:04 Trump will Meet Putin in Alaska 22:05 India Pushing Back? 26:46 Beto is Big Mad 27:46 Beto Wants to Punch First 32:09 Bernie Sanders on Democrats Voting for Trump 33:54 Bernie Sanders 2028? 35:19 Bernie Sanders on Hamas 41:03 RFK Jr. Stops this Program 43:45 RFK Jr. on mRNA Vaccine 46:12 Riley Gaines on Organ Donation 49:11 Sydney Sweeney for Baskin Robbins 54:02 Two Men Assaulted in front of Planned Parenthood 1:03:51 Washington DC is MESSED UP! 1:05:52 Trump on Upcoming Beautification Press Conference 1:07:21 Liberation Day for Washington DC 1:12:06 RIP US Astronaut Jim Lovell 1:17:20 3I/ATLAS Update 1:20:49 Sam Altman on AI Intelligence 1:26:56 Jen Pawol's First Day at Work 1:32:30 JD Vance Holds a Narrow Lead against Democrats Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump announced that he is invoking Section 740 of the DC Home Rule Act to place Washington, DC's Metropolitan Police Department under “direct federal control” and authorizing the Secretary of Defense to deploy National Guard troops in Washington, DC. Crime in D.C. is out of control and everyone, including President Trump, is tired of it!Sponsor:My PillowWww.MyPillow.com/johnSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

-Donald Trump moves to address crime and decay in the capital, criticizing decades of Democrat control over U.S. cities. -On the Newsmax Hotline, guest Tom Borelli discusses gerrymandering, crime in inner cities, and the long-term effects of Democrat policies on education and minority communities. Today's podcast is sponsored by : BIRCH GOLD - Protect and grow your retirement savings with gold. Text ROB to 98 98 98 for your FREE information kit! GREEN CHEF MEAL KITS: Make this summer your healthiest yet with Green Chef. Head to http://greenchef.com/50NEWSMAX and use code 50NEWSMAX to get fifty percent off your first month, then twenty percent off for two months with free shipping. To call in and speak with Rob Carson live on the show, dial 1-800-922-6680 between the hours of 12 Noon and 3:00 pm Eastern Time Monday through Friday…E-mail Rob Carson at : RobCarsonShow@gmail.com Musical parodies provided by Jim Gossett (www.patreon.com/JimGossettComedy) Listen to Newsmax LIVE and see our entire podcast lineup at http://Newsmax.com/Listen Make the switch to NEWSMAX today! Get your 15 day free trial of NEWSMAX+ at http://NewsmaxPlus.com Looking for NEWSMAX caps, tees, mugs & more? Check out the Newsmax merchandise shop at : http://nws.mx/shop Follow NEWSMAX on Social Media:  -Facebook: http://nws.mx/FB  -X/Twitter: http://nws.mx/twitter -Instagram: http://nws.mx/IG -YouTube: https://youtube.com/NewsmaxTV -Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/NewsmaxTV -TRUTH Social: https://truthsocial.com/@NEWSMAX -GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/newsmax -Threads: http://threads.net/@NEWSMAX  -Telegram: http://t.me/newsmax  -BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/newsmax.com -Parler: http://app.parler.com/newsmax Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Liberation Day Declared, Trump Using National Guard in Washington D.C., Federalizing Metro PDLive Show Monday-Thursday, 3pm est.SOCIALS: https://linktr.ee/drewberquist NEWS: https://DrewBerquist.com MERCH: https://RedBeachNation.com#DrewBerquist #ThisIsMyShow #TIMSTop 100 Political News Podcast with https://www.millionpodcasts.com/political-news-podcasts/#1 Counterterrorism Podcast on Feedspot: https://podcast.feedspot.com/counter_terrorism_podcasts/Show Notes/Links:President Trump announces liberation dayhttps://x.com/theblaze/status/1954917082652348548SecDef Hegseth says National Guard will be flowing into DC over next weekhttps://x.com/nicksortor/status/1954922736834511175President Trump calling in National Guard to DC and putting DC Metro under federal controlhttps://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1954916002489327857President Trump: We may take over New York and Chicago toohttps://x.com/disclosetv/status/1954929328707473806Beto Says Democrats have always followed the rules, colored within the lineshttps://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1954539033201373242Kristin Welker calls out JB Pritzker for doing the same thing he is mad at Texas abouthttps://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1954535129487225312Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, whose state has been gerrymandered to give Democrats a 14-3 congressional seat advantageEric Holder says gerrymandering is only okay if Democrats do ithttps://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1954585518143848674See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

President Donald Trump announced on Monday that he will activate hundreds of National Guard troops to be in the nation's capital to deal with the issue of crime. “This is Liberation Day in D.C. and we're going to take our Capitol back,” Trump said at a press conference. “We're taking it back under the authorities vested in me as the president of the United States.”A federal judge denied the Trump administration's request to make material related to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein public. Grand jury material is typically kept secret, and the government's filings do not meet an exception laid out in previous rulings, U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer wrote in a 31-page decision.

Buckle up, patriots—@intheMatrixxx and @shadygrooove are diving headfirst into Season 7, Episode 151, “Liberation Day in DC; Clean and Swift,” airing LIVE at 12:05 PM Eastern on August 11, 2025! The dynamic duo of truth-seekers takes on President Trump's fiery press conference from this morning, where he laid out his aggressive plan to restore Washington, D.C., to its rightful glory. From his Truth Social posts blasting homelessness and crime to his vow for a “clean and swift” federal crackdown, Jeff and Shannon will play the full presser, delivering real-time reactions and razor-sharp analysis that cuts through the mainstream media's spin. Expect unfiltered breakdowns of Trump's promises to clear homeless encampments, surge FBI presence, and make D.C. a symbol of American pride again, all while questioning the establishment's narrative that crime is “down.” With the truth is learned, never told, and the constitution as your weapon, join the MG Show to uncover what's really at stake in this bold move. Tune in at noon-0-five Eastern LIVE to stand with Trump! Trump, Liberation Day, Washington DC, homeless encampments, crime crackdown, @intheMatrixxx, @shadygrooove, MG Show, America First, Truth Social mgshow_s7e151_liberation_day_dc_clean_swift Tune in weekdays at 12pm ET / 9am PST, hosted by @InTheMatrixxx and @Shadygrooove. Catch up on-demand on https://rumble.com/mgshow or via your favorite podcast platform. Where to Watch & Listen Live on https://rumble.com/mgshow https://mgshow.link/redstate X: https://x.com/inthematrixxx Backup: https://kick.com/mgshow PODCASTS: Available on PodBean, Apple, Pandora, and Amazon Music. Search for "MG Show" to listen. Engage with Us Join the conversation on https://t.me/mgshowchannel and participate in live voice chats at https://t.me/MGShow. Social & Support Follow us on X: @intheMatrixxx https://x.com/inthematrixxx @ShadyGrooove https://x.com/shadygrooove Support the show: Fundraiser: https://givesendgo.com/helpmgshow Donate: https://mg.show/support Merch: https://merch.mg.show MyPillow Special: Use code MGSHOW at https://mypillow.com/mgshow for savings! Wanna send crypto? Bitcoin: bc1qtl2mftxzv8cxnzenmpav6t72a95yudtkq9dsuf Ethereum: 0xA11f0d2A68193cC57FAF9787F6Db1d3c98cf0b4D ADA: addr1q9z3urhje7jp2g85m3d4avfegrxapdhp726qpcf7czekeuayrlwx4lrzcfxzvupnlqqjjfl0rw08z0fmgzdk7z4zzgnqujqzsf XLM: GAWJ55N3QFYPFA2IC6HBEQ3OTGJGDG6OMY6RHP4ZIDFJLQPEUS5RAMO7 LTC: ltc1qapwe55ljayyav8hgg2f9dx2y0dxy73u0tya0pu All Links Find everything on https://linktr.ee/mgshow

Jon Herold breaks down a whirlwind Monday as Donald Trump declares “Liberation Day” in Washington, D.C., seizing control of the Metropolitan Police and deploying the National Guard under the Home Rule Act to restore law and order. He examines parallels to past federal interventions, speculates on potential election-related motives, and explores theories from crime reduction to deeper strategic plays. The show covers Kash Patel's law enforcement stats, the backlash from former FBI officials, and Judge Engelmeyer's rejection of the DOJ's bid to unseal Ghislaine Maxwell grand jury transcripts. Jon also highlights a sweeping federal court hack potentially exposing sensitive case data, the Intel CEO's controversial ties to Chinese firms, and the brewing intrigue around Trump's upcoming peace summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, with Zelensky possibly sidelined. From cartel threats to reclassifying marijuana and the geopolitics of Ukraine, Herold connects the dots on a day heavy with both domestic crackdowns and international maneuvering.

Order Why Trump Won today: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://amazon.com/dp/B0FBS5QF4L⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.This episode was livestreamed on August 10, 2025.

President Donald Trump's long-threatened reciprocal tariffs took effect Thursday, slapping many nations with substantial tariff increases. Trump initially announced the tariff levels on "Liberation Day" or April 2, ultimately delaying the plan until now to give nations time to negotiate trade deals. While many nations did strike a deal, goods from more than 60 countries and the European Union will still be hit with tariffs of 10% or more as of Thursday.~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaul00:00 Intro00:09 Sponsor: iTrust Capital00:43 Tariffs in effect01:30 CNBC: Could tariffs be a net positive?02:48 Apple04:15 401K Executive order04:45 Mike Novagratz: 401K impact + If GDP goes up so will BTC06:24 Mike Novagratz: Welcome to the bull market07:15 ETH accumulation08:13 Ripple x Rail10:20 XRP ETF odds11:00 Pre-Stocks on Solana11:30 Historic Earnings13:20 Outro#tariffs #crypto #trump~Trump Tariff Collection Day

Guest George Lutz, Gold Star Father and founder "Honor and Remember Inc", joins to discuss ways to remember our fallen soldiers in the nation. Discussion of the costs of war, honoring American pride, and supporting families impacted by losing a loved one in war.  President Trump federalizes Washington DC. What does that mean moving forward. Discussion of high crime rates, homelessness, activist judges, and more. Trump continues to beat democrats at their agenda after their push to make DC a state and add more power in Congress. 

Michael Pento warns the most overvalued equity bubble in history is on the brink. We cover triple bubbles in stocks, real estate, and credit… the risk of a bond market revolt… why replacing Powell could be dangerous… and why gold might be the ultimate protection.#gold #federalreserve #trump ------------Thank you to our #sponsor MONEY METALS. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://bit.ly/BUYGoldSilver------------

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses what back-to-school spending trends reveal about consumer sentiment and the U.S. economy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Today -- we're going back to school! A look at the second biggest shopping season in the U.S.. And what it can tell us about the broader market.It's Friday, August 8th, at 10am in New York.It's that time of the year again. With parents, caregivers and students making shopping lists for back-to-school supplies. And it's not just limited to school supplies and backpacks. It probably also includes laptops or tablets, smart phones and, of course, the latest clothes. For investors, understanding how consumers are feeling—and spending—right now is critical. Why? Because back-to-school spending tells us a lot about consumer sentiment. And this month's data has been sending some mixed but meaningful signals.Let's start with the mood on Main Street. According to our latest proprietary consumer survey, confidence in the economy is sliding. Just under one-third of consumers think the economy will improve over the next six months—which is down from 37 percent last month and 44 percent in January. And that's a pretty big drop from the start of the year. Meanwhile, half of all consumers expect the economy to get worse.Household finances are also feeling the squeeze. While around 40 percent expect their financial situation to improve, closer to 30 percent expect it to worsen. The net score is still positive, but down from last month and even more so from January.The takeaway? Consumers are feeling the pinch—and inflation remains their number one concern.We did see a bit of a brighter picture though around tariff fears. And tariffs are definitely still a worry, but we're past that point of peak fear. This month, over a third of consumers said they're “very concerned” about tariffs—down from 43 percent in April, post Liberation Day. And fewer people are planning to cut back on spending because of them: that number is just 30 percent now, compared to over 40 percent a few months ago.In fact, almost 30 percent of consumers actually plan to spend more despite tariffs. That's a sign of resilience—and perhaps necessity—as families prepare for the school year.And that brings us back to back-to-school shopping, which is a relative bright spot.Nearly half of U.S. consumers have already shopped or are planning to shop for the school year—right in line with what we saw in previous years. Among those shoppers, 47 percent are spending more than last year, while only 14 percent plan to spend less. That's a significant net positive at 34 percent.What's in the cart? More than 90 percent of shoppers are buying apparel, footwear, and school supplies. Apparel leads, followed by footwear, followed by supplies.If we look beyond the classroom at other things people are spending on, travel is still a priority. Around 60 percent of consumers plan to travel over the next six months, with visiting friends and family as the top reason. That's consistent with where we were a year ago and shows that experiences still matter—even in uncertain times.The big takeaway from all this data: Consumer sentiment is cooling, but spending—especially spending for seasonal needs—is holding up. Back-to-school categories like apparel and footwear are outperforming, making them potential bright spots for retailers.As we head into fall, keep your eyes on U.S. consumers. They're not just shopping for school—they're also signaling where the market could be headed next.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Economists and politicians told us that President Trump's tariffs would spark foreign retaliation and drive up domestic prices. But current economic data are beginning to tell a different story. Anna Wong, chief U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics, joins Oren to discuss what the post-Liberation Day data are telling us. As tariff rates begin to stabilize due to trade deals, Wong breaks down how tariffs are reshaping firm behavior, potentially driving a wave of future domestic investment by realigning incentivizes. Additionally, Anna and Oren explain why the punditry class's fixation on near-term CPI levels is missing the bigger story.

In this episode of The Korea Pro Podcast, Jeongmin and John dive into President Lee Jae-myung's escalating confrontation with major firms after a series of deadly workplace accidents, with POSCO and SPC under fresh scrutiny. They examine what the government's shift toward aggressive administrative penalties means for business. The hosts also break down why inflation remains volatile despite a steady consumer price index and why South Korea's export outlook is darkening amid U.S. tariffs. They then turn to the upcoming Ulchi Freedom Shield drills — including the decision to postpone half of the planned field exercises — and preview next week's ROK-Vietnam summit and President Lee's Aug. 15 Liberation Day address. About the podcast: The Korea Pro Podcast is a weekly 15-minute conversation hosted by Korea Risk Group Executive Director Jeongmin Kim, Editor John Lee and correspondent Joon Ha Park, diving deep into the most pressing stories shaping South Korea — and dissecting the most complicated ones for professionals monitoring ROK politics, diplomacy, culture, society and technology. Uploaded every Friday. This episode was recorded on Thursday, Aug. 7, 2025. Audio edited by Gaby Magnuson

President Trump plans a 100% tariff on semiconductors, just as his global “Liberation Day” tariffs go into effect. OpenAI launches GPT-5. Plus, can anything stop Doordash? 

Two things have become clear with President Trump this week. Last Friday's Liberation Day 2.0 - wasn't the end of the rising tariff story, for countries without U.S. trade deals in hand it may have just been the beginning of what's set to happen from here.

There's a dichotomy between the pace of job growth and the unemployment rate. Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach analyze how the Fed might address this paradox.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today – a look back at last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, and the path for rates from here.It's Tuesday, August 5th at 10am in New York.Mike, last week the Fed met for the fifth time this year. The committee didn't provide a summary of their economic projections, but they did update their official policy statement. And of course, Chair Powell spoke at the press conference. How would you characterize the tone of both?Michael Gapen: Yeah, at first the statement I thought took on a slightly dovish tone for two reasons. One, unexpected; the other expected. So, the committee did revise down their assessment of growth and economic activity. They had previously described the economy as growing at a quote, ‘solid pace,' and now they said, you know, the incoming data suggests that growth and economic activity moderated.So that's true. That's actually our view as well. We think the data points to that. The second reason the statement looked a little dovish, and this was expected is the Fed received two dissents. So, Governors Bowman and Waller both dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting.But then the press conference started. And I would characterize that as Powell having at least some renewed concerns around persistence of inflation. So, he did recognize or acknowledge that the June inflation data showed a tariff impulse. But I'd say the more hawkish overtones really came in his description of the labor market, which I know were going to get into.And we've been kind of wondering and, you know, asking implicitly – is the Fed ever going to take a stand on what constitutes a healthy and/or weak labor market? And Powell, I think put down a lot of markers in the direction; that said, it's not so much about employment growth, it's about a low unemployment rate. And he kept describing the labor market as solid, and in healthy condition, and at full employment. So, the combination of that suggests it's a higher bar, in our mind, for the Fed to cut in September.Matthew Hornbach: And on the labor market, if we could dig a little bit deeper on that point. It did seem to me certainly that Powell was channeling your views on the labor market.Michael Gapen: Well, I wish I had that power but thank you.Matthew Hornbach: Well. I'd like to now channel your views – and of course his views – to our listeners. Can you just go a little bit deeper into this dichotomy that you've been highlighting between the pace of job growth and the unemployment rate itself?Michael Gapen: Yeah. Our thesis and what we've laid out coming into the year, and we think the data supports, is the idea that immigration controls have really slowed growth in the labor force. And what that means is the break-even rate of employment has come down.So even as economic growth has slowed and demand for labor has slowed, and therefore employment growth has slowed – the unemployment rate has stayed low, and there's some paradox in that. Normally when employment growth weakens, we think the economy's rolling over; the Fed should be easing.But in an environment of a very slow growing labor force, the two can coincide. And there's tension in that, we recognize. But our view is – the more the administration pushes in the direction of restraining immigration, the more likely it is you'll see the combination of low employment growth, but a low unemployment rate. And our view is that still means the labor market is tight.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed, indeed. Just one last question from me. How are you thinking about the Fed's policy path from here? In particular, how are you looking at the remaining data that could get the Fed to cut rates in September?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that there's no magic sauce here, if you will; or secret sauce. Powell, you know, essentially is laying out a case where it's more likely than not inflation will be deviating from the 2 percent target as tariffs get passed through to consumer prices. And the flag that he planted on the labor market suggests maybe they're leaning in the direction of thinking the unemployment rates is likely to stay low.So, we just need more revelations on this front. And the gap between the July and the September FOMC meetings is the longest on the Fed's calendar. So, they will see two inflation reports and two labor market reports. And again, it just to provide context and color, right? What I think Powell was doing was positioning his view against the two dissents that he received. So where, for example, Governor Waller laid out a case where weaker employment growth could justify cuts, Powell was reflecting the view of the rest of the committee that said, ‘Well, it's not really employment growth, it's about that unemployment rate.'So, when these data arrive, we'll be kind of weighing both of those components. What does employment growth look like going forward? How weak is it? And what's happening to that unemployment rate?So, if the Fed's doing its job, this shouldn't be magic. If the labor market's obviously rolling over, you'll get cuts later this year. If not, we think our view will play out and the Fed will be on the sideline through, you know, early 2026 before it moves to rate cuts then.So Matt, what I'd like to do is kind of turn from the economics over to the rates views. How did the rates market respond to the meeting, to the statement, to the press conference? How are you thinking about the market pricing of the policy path into your end?Matthew Hornbach: So initially when the statement was released, as you noted, it had a dovish flavor to it. And so, we had a small repricing in the interest rate market, putting a little bit of a higher probability, on the idea that the Fed would lower rates in September. But then as Chair Powell began the press conference and started to articulate his views around both inflation and the labor market we saw the market take out some probability that the Fed would lower rates in September.And where it ended up at the end of that particular day was putting about a 50 percent probability on a rate cut and as a result of 50 percent probability of no rate cut; leaving the data to really dictate where the pricing of that meeting would go from there.That to me speaks to this data dependence of the Fed, as you've discussed. And I think that in the coming weeks we get more of this data that you talked about, both on the inflation side of the mandate and on the labor market side of the mandate. And ultimately, if they end up, going in September, I would've expected the market to have priced most of that in, ahead of the meeting. And if they end up not cutting rates in September, then naturally the market will have moved in that direction ahead of time.And again, I think what ends up happening in September will be critical for how the market ends up pricing the evolution of policy in November and December. But to me, what I think is more interesting is your view on 2026. And in that regard, the market is still some distance away from your view, that the Fed goes about 175 basis points in 2026.Michael Gapen: Yeah, I mean, we're still thinking the lagged effects of tariffs and immigration will slow the economy enough to get more Fed cuts than the market's thinking. But, you know, we'll see if that happens. And maybe that's a topic we can turn back to in upcoming Thoughts on the Market.But what I'd like to do is ask you this. I've been reading some of your recent work on term premiums. And in my view, had this really interesting analysis about how the market prices Fed policy and how U.S. Treasury yields then adjust and move.You highlighted that Treasury yields built in a term premium after April 2nd. What's happening with that term premium today?Matthew Hornbach: Yeah. The April 2nd Liberation Day event catalyzed an expansion of term premia in the Treasury market. And ultimately what that means is that Treasury yields went up relative to what people were thinking about the path of Fed policy, And of course, the risks that they were thinking about in the month of April were risks related to trade policy. Those risks have diminished somewhat, I would argue in the subsequent months as the administration has been announcing deals with some of our trading partners. And then the market's focus turned to supply and what was going to happen with U.S. Treasury supply. And then, of course, the reaction of investors to that coming supply.And I would say, given what the Treasury announced last week, which was – it had no intention of raising supply, in the next several quarters. In our view is that the U.S. Treasury will not have to raise supply until the early part of 2027. So way off in the distance. So, investors are becoming more comfortable taking on duration risk in their portfolios because some of that uncertainty that opened up after April 2nd has been put away.Michael Gapen: Yeah, I can see how the substantial tariff revenue we're bringing in could affect that story. So, for example, I think if you annualize the run rates on tariffs, you'll get something over $300 billion in a 12-month period. And that certainly will have an impact on Treasury supply.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. And so, as we make our way through the month of August, we'll get an update to those tariff revenues. And also, towards the end of August, we will have the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where Chair Powell will give us his updated thoughts on what is the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. And Mike, I look forward to catching up with you after that.Thanks for taking the time to talk today.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Today Nicole sits down with Yossi Levi—aka Car Dealership Guy—for a no-fluff breakdown of what's really happening in the car market and everything you need to know if you're car shopping. They unpack how the new Liberation Day tariffs are impacting prices, what's still negotiable at the dealership, and whether used cars are feeling the heat, too. Plus, Yossi weighs in on viral tax hacks like the G-Wagon deduction and a new write-off in Trump's latest tax proposal that could save you big. And yes, Nicole asks what he drives—because obviously. Follow Car Dealership Guy This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. As part of the IRA Match Program, Public Investing will fund a 1% match of: (a) all eligible IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers made to a Public IRA; and (b) all eligible contributions made to a Public IRA up to the account's annual contribution limit. The matched funds must be kept in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time. See full terms ⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.  *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.

Economic data looks backward while equity markets are looking ahead. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why this delays the Federal Reserve in both cutting and hiking rates – and why this is a feature of monetary policy, not a bug.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why economic data can be counterintuitive for how stocks trade. It's Monday, August 4th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Since the lows in April, the rally in stocks has been relentless with no tradable pullbacks. I have been steadfastly bullish since early May primarily due to the V-shaped recovery in earnings revisions breadth that began in mid-April. The rebound in earnings revisions has been a function of the positive reflexivity from max bearishness on tariffs, the AI capex cycle bottoming, and the weaker U.S. dollar. Now, cash tax savings from the One Big Beautiful Bill are an additional benefit to cash flow which should drive higher capital spending and M&A. As usual, stocks have traded ahead of the positive sentiment and the lagging economic data – which leads me to the main point for today. Weak labor data last week may worry some investors in the short term. But ultimately we see that as just another positive catalyst for stocks. Further deterioration would simply get the Fed to start cutting rates sooner and more aggressively.The bond market seems to agree and is now pricing a 90 percent chance of a Fed cut in September, and the 2-year Treasury yield is 80 basis points below the fed[eral] funds rate. This spread is not nearly as severe as last summer when it reached 200 basis points. However, it will widen further if next month's labor data is disappointing again. While weaker economic data could lead to further weakness in equities, the labor data is arguably the most backward-looking data series we follow. It's also why the Fed tends to be late with rate cuts. Meanwhile, inflation metrics are arguably the second most backward looking data, which explains why the Fed also tends to be late in terms of hiking rates. In my view, it's a feature of monetary policy, not a bug. Finally, in my opinion, the bond market's influence is more important than President Trump's public calls for Powell to cut rates. The equity market understands this dynamic, too—which is why it also gets ahead of the Fed at various stages of the cycle. We noted in our Mid-Year Outlook that April was a very durable low for equities that effectively priced a mild recession. To fully appreciate this view, one must acknowledge that equities were correcting for the 12 months leading up to April with the average stock down close to 30 percent at the lows. More importantly, it also coincided with a major trough in earnings revisions breadth. In short, Liberation Day marked the end of a significant bear market that began a year earlier. Remember, equity markets bottom on bad news and Liberation Day was the last piece of a long string of bad news that formed the bottom for earnings revisions breadth that we have been laser focused on. To bring it home, economic data is backward looking, earnings revisions and equity markets are forward looking. April was a major low for stocks that discounted the weak economic data we are seeing now. It was also the trough of the rolling recession that we have been in for the past three years and marked the beginning of a rolling recovery and a new bull market. For those who remain skeptical, it's important to recognize that the unemployment typically rises for 12 months after the equity market bottoms in a recession. Once the growth risk is priced, it's ultimately a tailwind for margins and stocks, as positive operating leverage arrives and the Fed cuts significantly. Based on this morning's rebound in stocks, it looks like the equity markets agree. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

July's job report wasn't bad, it wasn't iffy, it was... Incredibly great news  ...if you believe that Americans, rather than illegal immigrants, should be getting job opportunities.

We look at the current state of U.S. trade deals. Who has a deal? How many will get signed by August 1st? Will there be another extension? And what is their economic impact on the U.S.?We then discuss the border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which has recently turned deadly for the first time since 2011. What are they fighting about, and what are the political consequences for both countries?Finally, we provide an update on the Russia-Ukraine war. We discuss the pressing questions as to: Which side seems to be making progress? How is U.S. policy evolving under Trump? And what does this foretell for the future of the conflict?Topics Discussed in this Episode04:30 - Liberation Day Redux: Trump Tariff Fallout Prediction28:30 - Thailand-Cambodia Border Conflict39:40 - Russia-Ukraine War UpdateArticles and Resources Mentioned in EpisodeLiberation Day Redux: Trump Tariff Fallout PredictionTrump Tariffs: What's the Latest on the Trade War? (NY Times)How America's economy is dodging disaster (The Economist)Trump's latest trade deals don't make America stronger (WaPo)Likely extension for China talks reflect shift in tone, progress in finding a deal (Anita's quote in TND)Thailand-Cambodia Border ConflictThailand and Cambodia: The Battle for Preah Vihear (Stanford)What to Know About the Conflict Between Thailand and Cambodia (NY Times)The fractured friendship behind the fight at the Thailand-Cambodia border (BBC)Russia-Ukraine WarTrump's U-turn on Russia is utterly cynical—and welcome (The Economist)Ukrainian drones are killing ever more soldiers (The Economist)How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back (War on the Rocks)Send us a textFollow Us Show Website: www.kelloggsglobalpolitics.com Show Twitter: @GlobalKellogg Anita's Twitter: @arkellogg Show YouTube

This week, Kevin & Patrick welcome to the show, Robert Mullin. They discuss, about why the Liberation Day decline was one of the largest VAR shocks in years, and how Robert is positioning his portfolio in resource stocks to protect about the changing macro environment. Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://secure.bigpicturetrading.com/membership/signup/jpX05srf Subscribe To Patrick's New Educational Series ONLY available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

It's Liberation Day…again. After two missed deadlines and only a few trade deals done, Trump's global tariffs officially go into effect today. To mark the occasion, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro says the president not only deserves a Nobel Peace Prize—but also a Nobel Prize in economics. Meanwhile, Trump can't stop talking about Jeffrey Epstein, telling reporters on Air Force One that Virginia Giuffre was "stolen" by Jeffrey Epstein from the Mar-a-Largo spa. Trump pressures Senate Republicans to kill a ban on congressional (and presidential) stock trading. Jon and Dan discuss the latest, including Democrats' shifting views on Gaza, Kamala Harris's decision not to run for California governor, and Texas Republicans' attempts to steal the 2026 midterm elections by redrawing their congressional map. Then, Congressman Jason Crow joins Tommy in the studio to talk about recruiting Democrats to run for office, and why he's suing ICE after being denied entry to a detention facility in his district.  

While investors may now better understand President Trump's trade strategy, the economic consequences of tariffs remain unclear. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen offer guidance on the data they are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today ongoing effects of tariffs on the U.S. economy. It is Friday, August 1st at 8am in New York. So, Michael, lots of news over the past couple of weeks about the U.S. making trade agreements with other countries. It's certainly dominated client conversations we've had, as I'm assuming it's probably dominated conversations for you as well. Michael Gapen: Yeah certainly a topic that never goes away. It keeps on giving at this point in time. And I guess, Michael, what I would ask you is, what do you make of the recent deals? Does it reduce uncertainty in your mind? Does it leave uncertainty elevated? What's your short-term outlook for trade policy? Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think it's fair to say that we've reduced the range of potential outcomes in the near term around tariff rates. But we haven't done anything to reduce longer term uncertainties in U.S. trade policy. So, consider, for example, over the last couple of weeks, we have an agreement with Japan and an agreement with Europe – two pretty substantial trading partners – where it appears, the tariff rate that's going to be applied is something like 15 percent. And when you stack up these deals on one another, it looks like we're going to end up in an average effective tariff rate from the U.S. range of kind of 15 to 20 percent. And if you think back a couple of months, that range was much wider and we were potentially talking about levels in the 25 to 30 percent range. So, in that sense, investors might have a bit of a respite from the idea of kind of massive uncertainty around trade policy outcomes. However, longer term, these agreements really just are kind of principles that are set out for behavior, and there's lots of trip wires that could create future potential escalations. So, for example, with the Europe deal, part of the deal is that Europe will commit to purchase a substantial amount of U.S. energy. There's obvious questions as to whether or not the U.S. can actually supply that amidst its own energy needs that are rising substantially over the course of the next year. So, could we end up in a situation where six months to a year from now if those purchases haven't been made – the U.S. sort of presses forward and the administration threatens to re-escalate tariffs again. Really hard to know, but the point is these arrangements have lots of contingencies and other factors that could lead to re-escalation. But it's fair to say, at least in the near term, that we're in a landing place that appears to be somewhat smaller in terms of the range of potential outcomes. Now, I think a question for investors is going to be – how do we assess what the effects of that have been, right? Because is it fair to say that the economic data that we've received so far maybe isn't fully telling the story of the effects that are being felt quite yet. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's completely right. We've always had the view that it would take several months or more just for tariffs to show up in inflation. And if tariffs primarily act as a tax on the consumer, you have to apply that tax first before economic activity would moderate. So, we've long been forecasting that inflation would begin to pick up in June. We saw a little of that. But it would accelerate through the third quarter, kind of peaking around the August-September period. So, I'd say we've seen the first signs of that, Michael, but we need obviously follow through evidence that it's happening. So, we do expect that in the July, August and September inflation reports, you'll see a lot more evidence of tariffs pushing goods prices higher. So, we'll be dissecting all the details of the CPI looking for evidence of direct effects of tariffs, primarily on goods prices, but also some services prices. So, I'd put that down as the first marker, and we've seen some, early evidence on that. The second then, obviously, is the economy's 70 percent consumption. Tariffs act as a regressive tax on low- and middle-income consumers because non-discretionary purchases are a larger portion of their consumption bundle and a lot of goods prices are as well. Upper income households tend to spend relatively more money on leisure and recreation services. So, we would then expect growth in private consumption, primarily led by lower and middle-income spending softening. We think the consumer would slow down. But into the end of the year. Those are the two main markers that I would point to. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, I think this is really important because there's certainly this narrative amongst clients that we talk to that markets may have already moved on from this. Or investors may have already priced in the effects – or lack thereof – of some of this tariff escalation. Now we're about to get some real evidence from economic data as to whether or not that view and those assumptions are credible. Michael Gapen: That's right. Where we were initially on April 2nd after Liberation Day was largely embargo level tariffs. And if those stayed in place, trade volumes and activity and financial market asset values would've collapsed precipitously. And they were for a few weeks, as you know, but then we dialed it back and got out of that. So, yeah, we would say it's wrong to conclude that the economy , has absorbed these tariffs already and that they won't have,, a negative effect on economic activity. We think they will just in the base case where tariffs are high, but not too high, it just takes a while for that to happen. Michael Zezas: And of course, all of that's kind of core to our multi-asset outlook right now where a slowing economy, even with higher recession probabilities can still support risk assets. But of course, that piece of it is going to be very complicated if the economic data ends up being worse than you suspect. Now, any evidence you've seen so far? For example, we had a GDP report earlier this week. Any evidence from that data as to where things might go over the next few months?Michael Gapen: Yeah, well, another data point on trade policy and trade policy uncertainty really causing a lot of volatility in trade flows. So, if you recall, there's big front running of tariffs in the first quarter. Imports were up about 37 percent on the quarter; that ended in the second quarter, imports were down 30 percent. So net trade was a big drag on growth in the first quarter. It was a big boost to growth in the second. But we think that's largely noise. So, what I would say is we've probably level set import and export volumes now. So, do trade volumes from here begin to slow? That's an unresolved question. But certainly, the large volatility in the trade and inventory data in Q1 and Q2 GDP numbers are reflective of everything that you're saying about the risks around trade policy and elevated trade policy uncertainty. Second, though, I would say, because we started out the quarter with Liberation Day tariffs, the business sector, clearly – in our mind anyway – clearly responded by delaying activity. Equipment spending was only up 4 to 5 percent on the quarter. IP was up about 6 percent. Structures was down 10 percent. So, for all the narrative around AI-related spending, there wasn't a whole lot of spending on data centers and power generation in the second quarter.So, what you speak to about the need to reduce some trade policy uncertainty, but also your long run trade policy uncertainty remains elevated? I would say we saw evidence in the second quarter that all of that slowed down capital spending activity. Let's see if the One Big Beautiful Bill act can be a catalyst on that front, whether animal spirits can come back. But that's the other thing I would point to is that, business spending was weak and even though the headline GDP number was 3 percent, that's mainly a trade volatility number. Final sales to domestic purchasers, which includes consumption and business spending, was only up 1.1 percent in the quarter. So, the economy's moderating; things are cooling. I think trade policy and trade policy uncertainty is a big part of that story.Michael Zezas: Got it. So maybe this is something of a handoff here where my team had been really, really focused and investors have been really, really focused on the decision-making process of the U.S. administration around tariffs. And now your team's going to lead us through understanding the actual impacts. And the headline numbers around economic data are important, but probably even more important is the underlying. Is that fair? Michael Gapen: I think that's fair. I think as we move into the third quarter, like between now and when the Fed meets in, September, again, they'll have a few more inflation reports, a few more employment reports. We're going to learn a lot more than about what the Fed might do. So, I think the activity data and the Fed will now become much more important over the next several months than where we've been the past several months, which is about, has been about announcements around trade. Michael Zezas: All right. Well then, we look forward to hearing more from you and your team in the coming months. Well Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk to me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

With the markets closed and the August 1 deadline having passed overnight, President Donald Trump followed through on his pledge to impose a wave of new tariffs. But Trump is far from finished. The president announced that in one week, he'll raise tariffs on more than 60 nations, including a number of close U.S. trading partners. Playbook editor Zack Stanton joins contributing author Adam Wren to discuss what to expect today and in the days and weeks to come.

AI adoption, dollar weakness and tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill are some of the factors boosting our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson's confidence in U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I will discuss what's driving my optimism on stocks. It's Tuesday, July 29th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Over the past few weeks, I have been leaning more toward our bull case of 7200 for the S&P 500 by the middle of next year. This view is largely based on a more resilient earnings and cash flow backdrop than anticipated. The drivers are numerous and include positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill, and easy growth comparisons and pent-up demand for many sectors in the market. While many are still focused on tariffs as a headwind to growth, our analysis shows that tariff cost exposures for S&P 500 industry groups is fairly contained given the countries in scope and the exemptions that are still in place from the USMCA. Meanwhile, deals are being signed with our largest trading partners like Japan and Europe that appear favorable to the U.S. Due to the lack of pricing power, the main area of risk in the stock market from tariffs is consumer goods; and that's why we remain underweight that sector. However, the main tariff takeaway for investors is that the rate of change on policy uncertainty peaked in early April. This is the primary reason why earnings guidance bottomed in April as evidenced by the significant inflection higher in earnings revisions breadth—the key fundamental factor that we have been focused on. Of course, the near-term set up is not without risks. These include still high long-term interest rates, tariff-related inflation and potential margin pressure. As a result, a correction is possible during the seasonally weak third quarter, but pull-backs should be shallow and bought. In addition to the growth tailwinds already cited, it's worth pointing out that many companies also face very easy growth comparisons. I've had a long standing out of consensus view that the U.S. has been experiencing a rolling recession for the last three years. This fits with the fact that much of the soft economic data that has been hovering in recession territory for much of that period as well—things like purchasing manager indices, consumer confidence, and the private labor market. It also aligns with my long-standing view that government spending has helped to keep the headline economic growth statistics strong, while much of the private sector and many consumers have been crowded out by that heavy spending which has also kept the Fed too tight. Meanwhile, private sector wage growth has been in a steady decline over the last several years, and payroll growth across Tech, Financials and Business Services has been negative – until recently. Conversely, Government and Education/Health Services payroll growth has been much stronger over this time horizon. This type of wage growth and sluggish payroll growth in the private sector is typical of an early cycle backdrop. It's a key reason why operating leverage inflects in early cycle environments, and margins expand. Our earnings model is picking up on this underappreciated dynamic, and AI adoption is likely to accelerate this phenomenon. In short, this is looking more and more like an early cycle set up where leaner cost structures drive positive operating leverage after an extended period of wage growth consolidation. Bottom line, the capitulatory price action and earnings estimate cuts we saw in April of this year around Liberation Day represented the end of a rolling recession that began in 2022. Markets bottom on bad news and we are transitioning from that rolling earnings recession backdrop to a rolling recovery environment. The combination of positive earnings and cash flow drivers with the easy growth comparisons fostered by the rolling EPS recession and the high probability of the Fed re-starting the cutting cycle by the first quarter of next year should facilitate this transition. The upward inflection we're seeing in earnings revisions breadth confirms this process is well underway and suggests returns for the average stock are likely to be strong over the next 12-months. In short, buy any dips that may occur in the seasonally weak quarter of the year. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!