Podcasts about Liberation Day

It's Liberation Day…again. After two missed deadlines and only a few trade deals done, Trump's global tariffs officially go into effect today. To mark the occasion, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro says the president not only deserves a Nobel Peace Prize—but also a Nobel Prize in economics. Meanwhile, Trump can't stop talking about Jeffrey Epstein, telling reporters on Air Force One that Virginia Giuffre was "stolen" by Jeffrey Epstein from the Mar-a-Largo spa. Trump pressures Senate Republicans to kill a ban on congressional (and presidential) stock trading. Jon and Dan discuss the latest, including Democrats' shifting views on Gaza, Kamala Harris's decision not to run for California governor, and Texas Republicans' attempts to steal the 2026 midterm elections by redrawing their congressional map. Then, Congressman Jason Crow joins Tommy in the studio to talk about recruiting Democrats to run for office, and why he's suing ICE after being denied entry to a detention facility in his district.  

While investors may now better understand President Trump's trade strategy, the economic consequences of tariffs remain unclear. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen offer guidance on the data they are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today ongoing effects of tariffs on the U.S. economy. It is Friday, August 1st at 8am in New York. So, Michael, lots of news over the past couple of weeks about the U.S. making trade agreements with other countries. It's certainly dominated client conversations we've had, as I'm assuming it's probably dominated conversations for you as well. Michael Gapen: Yeah certainly a topic that never goes away. It keeps on giving at this point in time. And I guess, Michael, what I would ask you is, what do you make of the recent deals? Does it reduce uncertainty in your mind? Does it leave uncertainty elevated? What's your short-term outlook for trade policy? Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think it's fair to say that we've reduced the range of potential outcomes in the near term around tariff rates. But we haven't done anything to reduce longer term uncertainties in U.S. trade policy. So, consider, for example, over the last couple of weeks, we have an agreement with Japan and an agreement with Europe – two pretty substantial trading partners – where it appears, the tariff rate that's going to be applied is something like 15 percent. And when you stack up these deals on one another, it looks like we're going to end up in an average effective tariff rate from the U.S. range of kind of 15 to 20 percent. And if you think back a couple of months, that range was much wider and we were potentially talking about levels in the 25 to 30 percent range. So, in that sense, investors might have a bit of a respite from the idea of kind of massive uncertainty around trade policy outcomes. However, longer term, these agreements really just are kind of principles that are set out for behavior, and there's lots of trip wires that could create future potential escalations. So, for example, with the Europe deal, part of the deal is that Europe will commit to purchase a substantial amount of U.S. energy. There's obvious questions as to whether or not the U.S. can actually supply that amidst its own energy needs that are rising substantially over the course of the next year. So, could we end up in a situation where six months to a year from now if those purchases haven't been made – the U.S. sort of presses forward and the administration threatens to re-escalate tariffs again. Really hard to know, but the point is these arrangements have lots of contingencies and other factors that could lead to re-escalation. But it's fair to say, at least in the near term, that we're in a landing place that appears to be somewhat smaller in terms of the range of potential outcomes. Now, I think a question for investors is going to be – how do we assess what the effects of that have been, right? Because is it fair to say that the economic data that we've received so far maybe isn't fully telling the story of the effects that are being felt quite yet. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's completely right. We've always had the view that it would take several months or more just for tariffs to show up in inflation. And if tariffs primarily act as a tax on the consumer, you have to apply that tax first before economic activity would moderate. So, we've long been forecasting that inflation would begin to pick up in June. We saw a little of that. But it would accelerate through the third quarter, kind of peaking around the August-September period. So, I'd say we've seen the first signs of that, Michael, but we need obviously follow through evidence that it's happening. So, we do expect that in the July, August and September inflation reports, you'll see a lot more evidence of tariffs pushing goods prices higher. So, we'll be dissecting all the details of the CPI looking for evidence of direct effects of tariffs, primarily on goods prices, but also some services prices. So, I'd put that down as the first marker, and we've seen some, early evidence on that. The second then, obviously, is the economy's 70 percent consumption. Tariffs act as a regressive tax on low- and middle-income consumers because non-discretionary purchases are a larger portion of their consumption bundle and a lot of goods prices are as well. Upper income households tend to spend relatively more money on leisure and recreation services. So, we would then expect growth in private consumption, primarily led by lower and middle-income spending softening. We think the consumer would slow down. But into the end of the year. Those are the two main markers that I would point to. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, I think this is really important because there's certainly this narrative amongst clients that we talk to that markets may have already moved on from this. Or investors may have already priced in the effects – or lack thereof – of some of this tariff escalation. Now we're about to get some real evidence from economic data as to whether or not that view and those assumptions are credible. Michael Gapen: That's right. Where we were initially on April 2nd after Liberation Day was largely embargo level tariffs. And if those stayed in place, trade volumes and activity and financial market asset values would've collapsed precipitously. And they were for a few weeks, as you know, but then we dialed it back and got out of that. So, yeah, we would say it's wrong to conclude that the economy , has absorbed these tariffs already and that they won't have,, a negative effect on economic activity. We think they will just in the base case where tariffs are high, but not too high, it just takes a while for that to happen. Michael Zezas: And of course, all of that's kind of core to our multi-asset outlook right now where a slowing economy, even with higher recession probabilities can still support risk assets. But of course, that piece of it is going to be very complicated if the economic data ends up being worse than you suspect. Now, any evidence you've seen so far? For example, we had a GDP report earlier this week. Any evidence from that data as to where things might go over the next few months?Michael Gapen: Yeah, well, another data point on trade policy and trade policy uncertainty really causing a lot of volatility in trade flows. So, if you recall, there's big front running of tariffs in the first quarter. Imports were up about 37 percent on the quarter; that ended in the second quarter, imports were down 30 percent. So net trade was a big drag on growth in the first quarter. It was a big boost to growth in the second. But we think that's largely noise. So, what I would say is we've probably level set import and export volumes now. So, do trade volumes from here begin to slow? That's an unresolved question. But certainly, the large volatility in the trade and inventory data in Q1 and Q2 GDP numbers are reflective of everything that you're saying about the risks around trade policy and elevated trade policy uncertainty. Second, though, I would say, because we started out the quarter with Liberation Day tariffs, the business sector, clearly – in our mind anyway – clearly responded by delaying activity. Equipment spending was only up 4 to 5 percent on the quarter. IP was up about 6 percent. Structures was down 10 percent. So, for all the narrative around AI-related spending, there wasn't a whole lot of spending on data centers and power generation in the second quarter.So, what you speak to about the need to reduce some trade policy uncertainty, but also your long run trade policy uncertainty remains elevated? I would say we saw evidence in the second quarter that all of that slowed down capital spending activity. Let's see if the One Big Beautiful Bill act can be a catalyst on that front, whether animal spirits can come back. But that's the other thing I would point to is that, business spending was weak and even though the headline GDP number was 3 percent, that's mainly a trade volatility number. Final sales to domestic purchasers, which includes consumption and business spending, was only up 1.1 percent in the quarter. So, the economy's moderating; things are cooling. I think trade policy and trade policy uncertainty is a big part of that story.Michael Zezas: Got it. So maybe this is something of a handoff here where my team had been really, really focused and investors have been really, really focused on the decision-making process of the U.S. administration around tariffs. And now your team's going to lead us through understanding the actual impacts. And the headline numbers around economic data are important, but probably even more important is the underlying. Is that fair? Michael Gapen: I think that's fair. I think as we move into the third quarter, like between now and when the Fed meets in, September, again, they'll have a few more inflation reports, a few more employment reports. We're going to learn a lot more than about what the Fed might do. So, I think the activity data and the Fed will now become much more important over the next several months than where we've been the past several months, which is about, has been about announcements around trade. Michael Zezas: All right. Well then, we look forward to hearing more from you and your team in the coming months. Well Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk to me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

With the markets closed and the August 1 deadline having passed overnight, President Donald Trump followed through on his pledge to impose a wave of new tariffs. But Trump is far from finished. The president announced that in one week, he'll raise tariffs on more than 60 nations, including a number of close U.S. trading partners. Playbook editor Zack Stanton joins contributing author Adam Wren to discuss what to expect today and in the days and weeks to come.

-The financial markets react to the tariff news and a weaker-than-expected jobs report. -White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt discusses the declassification of the Durham Report annex. [Newsmax Breaking] -Rob Finnerty: "Now we have what looks like direct evidence that Hillary Clinton's campaign and Hillary herself came up with the Russian collusion narrative from the start." [Finnerty] -"The Right Squad," talks about documents showing how President Obama allegedly learned of the Russiagate plan. [Chris Plante The Right Squad] -Alina Habba joins Rob Schmitt to review the Russiagate investigation. [Rob Schmitt Tonight] -Montana Sen. Steve Daines assesses Kamala Harris' potential presidential run in 2028. [National Report] Listen to Newsmax LIVE and see our entire podcast lineup at http://Newsmax.com/Listen Make the switch to NEWSMAX today! Get your 15 day free trial of NEWSMAX+ at http://NewsmaxPlus.com Looking for NEWSMAX caps, tees, mugs & more? Check out the Newsmax merchandise shop at : http://nws.mx/shop Follow NEWSMAX on Social Media:  -Facebook: http://nws.mx/FB  -X/Twitter: http://nws.mx/twitter -Instagram: http://nws.mx/IG -YouTube: https://youtube.com/NewsmaxTV -Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/NewsmaxTV -TRUTH Social: https://truthsocial.com/@NEWSMAX -GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/newsmax -Threads: http://threads.net/@NEWSMAX  -Telegram: http://t.me/newsmax  -BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/newsmax.com -Parler: http://app.parler.com/newsmax Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Het is eindelijk duidelijk wat de hoogte van de Amerikaanse importheffingen op Europese producten gaat zijn. Volgens econoom Edin Mujagic is de vraag nu vooral wat daar het effect van gaat zijn. ‘De twee woorden die je na 2 april van dit jaar veel hoorde, toen op Trumps ‘’Liberation Day’’ de heffingen werden aangekondigd, waren inflatie en recessie. Daar merk je eigenlijk weinig van.’ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AI adoption, dollar weakness and tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill are some of the factors boosting our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson's confidence in U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I will discuss what's driving my optimism on stocks. It's Tuesday, July 29th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Over the past few weeks, I have been leaning more toward our bull case of 7200 for the S&P 500 by the middle of next year. This view is largely based on a more resilient earnings and cash flow backdrop than anticipated. The drivers are numerous and include positive operating leverage, AI adoption, dollar weakness, cash tax savings from the Big Beautiful Bill, and easy growth comparisons and pent-up demand for many sectors in the market. While many are still focused on tariffs as a headwind to growth, our analysis shows that tariff cost exposures for S&P 500 industry groups is fairly contained given the countries in scope and the exemptions that are still in place from the USMCA. Meanwhile, deals are being signed with our largest trading partners like Japan and Europe that appear favorable to the U.S. Due to the lack of pricing power, the main area of risk in the stock market from tariffs is consumer goods; and that's why we remain underweight that sector. However, the main tariff takeaway for investors is that the rate of change on policy uncertainty peaked in early April. This is the primary reason why earnings guidance bottomed in April as evidenced by the significant inflection higher in earnings revisions breadth—the key fundamental factor that we have been focused on. Of course, the near-term set up is not without risks. These include still high long-term interest rates, tariff-related inflation and potential margin pressure. As a result, a correction is possible during the seasonally weak third quarter, but pull-backs should be shallow and bought. In addition to the growth tailwinds already cited, it's worth pointing out that many companies also face very easy growth comparisons. I've had a long standing out of consensus view that the U.S. has been experiencing a rolling recession for the last three years. This fits with the fact that much of the soft economic data that has been hovering in recession territory for much of that period as well—things like purchasing manager indices, consumer confidence, and the private labor market. It also aligns with my long-standing view that government spending has helped to keep the headline economic growth statistics strong, while much of the private sector and many consumers have been crowded out by that heavy spending which has also kept the Fed too tight. Meanwhile, private sector wage growth has been in a steady decline over the last several years, and payroll growth across Tech, Financials and Business Services has been negative – until recently. Conversely, Government and Education/Health Services payroll growth has been much stronger over this time horizon. This type of wage growth and sluggish payroll growth in the private sector is typical of an early cycle backdrop. It's a key reason why operating leverage inflects in early cycle environments, and margins expand. Our earnings model is picking up on this underappreciated dynamic, and AI adoption is likely to accelerate this phenomenon. In short, this is looking more and more like an early cycle set up where leaner cost structures drive positive operating leverage after an extended period of wage growth consolidation. Bottom line, the capitulatory price action and earnings estimate cuts we saw in April of this year around Liberation Day represented the end of a rolling recession that began in 2022. Markets bottom on bad news and we are transitioning from that rolling earnings recession backdrop to a rolling recovery environment. The combination of positive earnings and cash flow drivers with the easy growth comparisons fostered by the rolling EPS recession and the high probability of the Fed re-starting the cutting cycle by the first quarter of next year should facilitate this transition. The upward inflection we're seeing in earnings revisions breadth confirms this process is well underway and suggests returns for the average stock are likely to be strong over the next 12-months. In short, buy any dips that may occur in the seasonally weak quarter of the year. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

The last time I interviewed today's guest was right after the stock market plunged 20% to its post-Liberation Day lows in April.Wall Street was stunned, as just a few months before, the market seemed unstoppable.Well, here we are three months later...and stocks have rocketed back to new highs.The fears that panicked investors so much back in April seem completely forgotten.What is going on and what's most likely to happen from here?To discuss, we're fortunate to be joined today by David Hay, the up-until-recently Chief Investment Officer & Principal at Evergreen Gavekal. He now publishes daily investing commentary on his excellent Haymaker Substack.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bearmarket #deficit #debt 0:00 - Market Recovery3:01 - The Trump Turnaround10:26 - Debts, Deficits, and Fed Balance Sheet15:37 - Bond Market Breakouts23:16 - Emerging Market Bonds31:03 - Tariffs and Economic Impacts46:56 - Student Loans and Delinquencies52:42 - AI and Productivity58:01 - Crypto and Bitcoin Treasuries:1:10:22 - Investment Recommendations1:21:13 - New Harbor Update_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

As Chief Market Strategist Matt Orton, CFA, and Market Strategy Research Associate Joey Del Guercio, CFA, look at the first earnings announcements issued after “Liberation Day,” they consider how risk sentiment is holding up and what happened to the divergence between hard and soft economic data from earlier in the year.

Financial elites and media pundits warned of catastrophe—but the collapse never came. Instead, Donald Trump's post-“Liberation Day” tariffs helped usher in historic economic success, including a record-breaking stock market and the largest trade deal in U.S. history. In this episode, hosts debunk doomsday predictions from outlets like The Wall Street Journal and Fox Business, highlighting Trump's bold realignment of global trade, NATO accountability, and energy independence. They also spotlight Europe's sudden concern over Ukrainian corruption—now that it's their money on the line. This isn't just a policy shift—it's the end of post-WWII trade imbalance and the beginning of a new American-centered economic era.

Das zweite Quartal stand ganz im Zeichen der von Trump eingeführten reziproken Zölle am Liberation Day. Das Ausmaß der Zollforderungen hat die Marktteilnehmer zunächst geschockt und die Börsen auf Talfahrt geschickt. US-Aktien lagen zeitweise 25 % unter ihrem Hoch, Aktien aus Europa und den Schwellenländern gaben nach um 17 % bzw. 19 %. Die Märkte konnten sich aber schnell wieder erholen, als klar wurde, dass Trump doch nachgibt, wenn die Kapitalmärkte nervös werden (TACO Trade), weshalb die Verluste bereits innerhalb des selben Quartals größtenteils ausgeglichen werden konnten. Besonders positiv entwickelt haben sich in diesem Quartal deutsche und US-amerikanische Aktien, die jedoch uns Euro-Anlegern nur bedingt zugutekamen, aufgrund der historischen Abwertung des US-Dollars in Folge eines Vertrauensverlustes globaler Investoren. Von diesem Vertrauensverlust profitiert auch der Goldpreis, der in diesem Jahr mit knapp 30 % eine der größten Wertsteigerungen seit 1979 erlebt. Im Video gehen wir verstärkt auf die Hintergründe zu dieser Entwicklung ein. Auch die Kryptomärkte werden von internationalen Investoren immer mehr als Basisinvestment betrachtet. Die Volumen in Krypto-Fonds und ETCs nehmen laufend zu und schickten beispielsweise den Bitcoin im Juli, trotz enormer temporärer Wertschwankungen, auf ein neues Allzeithoch bei 123.000 USD. Der grundsätzliche Ausblick bleibt positiv, mit Blick auf historische Vergleiche. Unsicherheitsfaktoren bleiben aber Trumps unkalkulierbare Politik und weitere Zollforderungen. Auch steht US-Notenbankchef Jerome Powell unter Druck von Trump, da er aufgrund der ungewissen Auswirkungen der Zölle die Zinsen nicht senken möchte, was Trump aber nachdrücklich fordert. Hieraus könnten sich in den nächsten Wochen noch spannende Entwicklungen ergeben.0:00 Begrüßung 0:15 Top Themen in Q21:09 Aktuelle Entwicklungen um Trumps Zölle 4:05 Entwicklung der Leitzinsen in 20255:36 Inflationsentwicklung USA & Europa 6:22 Aktienmärkte in Q1 - Hauptmärkte 8:18 Fondsmanagerumfrage zu Aktienmärkten9:28 Aktienmärkte in Q1 – Nebenmärkte 10:33 Anleihenmärkte in Q1 11:13 Zinssätze in Q1 11:32 Rohstoffe in Q111:52 Goldpreis auf Rekordniveau in 202514:30 Bitte abonnieren – Vielen Dank14:36 Währungen in Q1 - USD im freien Fall16:13 Kryptomärkte in Q1 17:28 Entwicklung der Anlageportfolios in Q1 17:52 Ausblick – Korrektur bei Aktien bereits wieder vorbei – keine Rezession19:52 Ausblick – Stützende Faktoren für den Aktienmarkt22:55 Ausblick – Themen für Q3 – Trumps Zölle und Jerome Powell Entlassung?24:16 Rechtliche Hinweise Rechtliche Hinweise: Alle Abbildungen dienen ausschließlich der Allgemeininformation und stellen keine Beratung, Empfehlung und kein Angebot zum Kauf oder Verkauf von den hier genannten Wertpapieranlagen dar. Insbesondere können wir nicht einschätzen, inwiefern die hier gemachten Empfehlungen oder Aussagen ihren Anlagezielen, ihrer Risikobereitschaft und Verlusttragfähigkeit entsprechen. Wer also auf Basis der in dieser Publikation gemachten Aussagen oder gegebenen Informationen etwaige Anlageentscheidungen trifft, trifft diese ausschließlich auf eigene Verantwortung und auf eigenes Risiko. Wertentwicklungen in der Vergangenheit lassen nicht auf zukünftige Wertentwicklung schließen. Diese ist nicht prognostizierbar. Trotz sorgfältiger Prüfung können wir keine Gewähr für die Richtigkeit der aufgeführten Daten übernehmen. Risikobehaftete Kapitalanlage.

Earnings remain in the spotlight, with notable gains in the banking sector, while Tesla tumbled amid US policy headwinds. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged and offered a modestly upbeat assessment of the eurozone economy, raising doubts among investors about further policy easing, even while US tariff threats still cloud the outlook. This pushed yields higher and weighed on gold. Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM Private Banking in Geneva, explains why the precious metal has consolidated since Liberation Day, and why he agrees with the consensus view of higher prices for metals.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing (00:25) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Investment Writing (05:54) - FX and metals: Tim Gagie, Head of FX/PM PB Geneva (10:33) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Send us a textIt was a volatile 2nd quarter with markets falling sharply after Liberation Day, only to be followed by a historic turnaround which brought markets to new all-time highs. And now as we enter earning seasons, will the data on the first half of the year be indicative of the path forward? Topics I cover: Performance of markets through the first half of the year, including the large rally in overseas stocksThe state of the economy, inflation, and employmentThe impact on tariffs thus far and throughout the rest of 2025What the fed does from hereHow to think about 2Q earnings and what it will tell us about the rest of the yearThis episode is a replay of a client webinar from July 2025.  With any questions or comments, or to discuss your own financial situation, I can be reached at marc.penziner@bernstein.com or 212-969-6655.The information presented and opinions expressed are solely the views of the podcast host commentator and their guest speaker(s).  AllianceBernstein L.P. or its affiliates makes no representations or warranties concerning the accuracy of any data. There is no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this material will be realized. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The views expressed here may change at any time after the date of this podcast. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. AllianceBernstein L.P. does not provide tax, legal or accounting advice. It does not take an investor's personal investment objectives or financial situation into account; investors should discuss their individual circumstances with appropriate professionals before making any decisions. This information should not be construed as sales or marketing material or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, product or service sponsored by AllianceBernstein.

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On April 2, President Trump announced that the United States would impose tariffs on all its trading partners. He called it "Liberation Day." From his perspective, the day that America would be "freed" from being "ripped off" by other countries' predatory trade practices. The President would go on to tell us that this was an idea he had thought of 40 years ago.

The Australian share market has suffered its worst one-day decline since Donald Trump announced his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs in April. The ASX 200 closing 1 per cent down; a stark contrast from Friday's record close. Stephanie Youssef spoke with Blueberry Markets analyst Zoran Kresovic about why that was expected. Plus, a new joint report by the Australian Human Rights Commission and the Australian Human Resources Institute has found a quarter of HR professionals surveyed now classify workers aged 51 to 55 as "older". Stephanie Youssef spoke with Age Discrimination Commissioner at the Australian Human Rights Commission, Robert Fitzgerald.

On April 2, President Trump announced that the United States would impose tariffs on all its trading partners. He called it "Liberation Day." From his perspective, the day that America would be "freed" from being "ripped off" by other countries' predatory trade practices. The President would go on to tell us that this was an idea he had thought of 40 years ago.

On April 2, President Trump announced that the United States would impose tariffs on all its trading partners. He called it "Liberation Day." From his perspective, the day that America would be "freed" from being "ripped off" by other countries' predatory trade practices. The President would go on to tell us that this was an idea he had thought of 40 years ago.

On April 2, President Trump announced that the United States would impose tariffs on all its trading partners. He called it "Liberation Day." From his perspective, the day that America would be "freed" from being "ripped off" by other countries' predatory trade practices. The President would go on to tell us that this was an idea he had thought of 40 years ago.

Let's talk about Liberation Day — and more importantly, how it's going to end. Back in April, Trump rolled out what looked like a trade war on steroids: a flurry of tariffs aimed at countries big and small, with no clear structure except for one thing — disruption. It was pitched as a three-pronged strategy. First, if you want to sell into the U.S., we should be able to sell into your markets too. Second, we need to re-onshore American manufacturing. And third — and let's be honest, this was the loudest part — Trump wins.For a minute, it wasn't clear whether this was a real attempt to fundamentally restructure trade or just a way to set the stage for a bunch of “deals” later. The tariffs went out, the clock started, and everyone was told they had until August to make a deal or face serious costs. And yet, here we are in mid-July with just two completed agreements: Vietnam and the UK. None of the big players — China, the EU, Japan, Canada, Mexico — are done. So the question becomes, what's the endgame?Here's what I've been told: the White House is prepping a three-phase process that's all about creating the appearance of momentum. Phase one is joint statements — political handshake documents, not legally binding deals. These are meant to say, “Hey, we're working on it, don't hit us with the tariffs yet.” It's what they did with the UK, and it's what they want from everyone else by early August. These aren't trade agreements. They're vibes.Phase two is an interim agreement — maybe 40 to 50 pages, with some of the real trade language baked in. This is where you'll start seeing things like rules of origin pop up — basically, making sure countries like China can't skirt tariffs by routing goods through friendlier ports. It's technical, it's dry, and it takes time, but it's a necessary step toward real enforcement.And phase three, the big one, comes way down the road — probably after the midterms. These are the actual full trade agreements, hundreds of pages long, with all the boring but essential rules locked in. But here's the twist: if you think countries will bother going through phase two and three after they've already locked in the tariff rate during phase one, you're missing the enforcement tool — Section 232. The White House is making it clear: if you slack off, we'll start making noise. We'll investigate. We'll embarrass you. Think Mexican tomatoes — everybody knows they're breaking the rules, and we've just been letting it slide. But not anymore.So when all these joint agreements start rolling out at the end of this month, remember what they are: theater. The deals are political stunts to buy time, stabilize markets, and let Trump declare victory. The real work — the real meat — comes later. And that's how Liberation Day ends. Not with a bang, but with a bunch of bullet-pointed PDFs.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:05 - How does Liberation Day end?00:16:24 - Interview with Jack Gamble00:41:30 - Update00:41:46 - Epstein Discharge Petition00:50:44 - Virginia Polls00:52:18 - Rescissions Package Passage00:53:36 - Interview with Jack Gamble (con't)01:15:25 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Why didn't the long-predicted recession arrive? In this episode, we talk with Aahan Menon, founder of Prometheus Research, about why traditional macro models are breaking down and what investors are missing in today's economy. Aahan explains why recession indicators have failed, how monetary policy transmission has changed, and what really matters in understanding economic risk right now.We also explore how Prometheus uses a systematic approach to macro investing, why focusing on the present is more valuable than forecasting the future, and what their models revealed about the true impact of tariffs—before the market reacted. If you've been relying on the old playbook, this conversation will challenge your thinking.Topics discussed include:Why recession indicators failed to predict this cycleThe real risk behind the Liberation Day tariff panicHow the Fed's rate hikes lost their biteWhat's changed in the economy's sensitivity to ratesPrometheus' approach to stress testing and forecastingHow Aahan translates macro data into portfolio strategyThe behavioral traps investors fall into during macro shifts

Markets are doing what the markets do best: Consolidating following a rally. Elevated momentum signals are flipping back and forth (not uncommon), and relative strength is coming down from over-bought levels. This is keeping markets from making much of an advance. The back-and-forth debate over Fed rate cuts is also making things uncertain: The markets want a rate cut, but if inflation shows up in the form of tariff impacts on PPI numbers, that news will weigh on markets today (the report to be published after this post). None of this mitigates the risk of a 3-5% correction as early as mid-August. One of the recent "propellants" for the markets from recent lows was the under-weighting by asset managers in Tech prior to Liberation Day. Now playing catch up, they're buying up those shares to rebalance portfolios, and that's resulted in a huge surge in positioning and sentiment. (Remember, sentiment is a contrarian indicator: When everyone is bullish, and everyone has bought, that leaves a vaccuum beneath stocks, where the next buyers will be in a correction). We think we'll see that happen sometime in August or September.   Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO  Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch today's video here: https://youtu.be/4k2AfV8moZ8 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Dollar Setting Up For A Comeback?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-dollar-setting-up-for-a-comeback/ "Relative Returns Or Absolute. What's More Important?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/relative-returns-or-absolute-whats-more-important/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- Register for our next live webinar, "RIA Retirement Blueprint," July 19, 2025: https://streamyard.com/watch/qaMtj3cydgDQ ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #MarketRally #MarketRisk #BullishSentiment #ContrarianIndicator #Technology #LiberationDay #EarningsSeason #RiskManagement #PortfolioRisk #PortfolioManagement #20DMA #50DMA #100DMA #200DMA #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Henry Schwartz from Cboe is tracking retail broker trading, which he says has skyrocketed this year. April 4 was the busiest day ever for option volume. He attributes the boom to volatility spiking around ‘Liberation Day' and short-dated trading strategies, with retail traders driving most of single-stock contracts. He notes that volume is very concentrated. Henry highlights trends to watch in retail options activity for interested investors.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Phoenix Pham are faced with the next chapter of their adventure: Eriko Watanabe and Liberation Day. Is Eriko ready to meet? Are our heroes ready to meet her? And how will the party handle the cocktail hour amongst the rich and powerful of Orsiame? Will they make asses of themselves? Probably!

Was die Wall Street vor dem Opening bremst, sind die Androhungen einer deutlichen Ausweitung der Zölle gegen die wichtigsten US-Handelspartner. Am Samstag drohte Trump an, ab dem 1. August 30% Zölle auf Warenimporte aus Mexiko und die EU zu verhängen. Kanada drohen Zölle von 35%. Dies betrifft nicht die Bereiche, bei denen Sektorenzölle bereits verhängt wurden. Seit dem „Liberation Day” am 2. April wurden im Grunde keine Handelsabkommen final abgeschlossen. Das Abkommen mit England weist weiterhin große Lücken auf, und mit China befindet man sich weiterhin in Verhandlungen. Die Einigung mit Vietnam scheint auch auf dünnem Eis zu stehen. Zudem warnt Politico am Wochenende, dass der Glaube an dem TACO-Trade zu voreilig sein könnte. Dieses Mal meine es Trump ernst, und ein Zurückrudern sei unwahrscheinlicher geworden. Dass am Dienstag und Mittwoch die Verbraucher- und Erzeugerpreise gemeldet werden, dürfte an der Wall Street zum Wochenauftakt ebenfalls für Zurückhaltung sorgen. Was die Berichtssaison betrifft, ist die Wall Street vor allem bei den Banken optimistisch. Die Messlatte für den S&P 500 hängt mit einem erwarteten Ertragswachstum von nur rund 4% vs. der 12% im ersten Quartal ausgesprochen niedrig. Abonniere den Podcast, um keine Folge zu verpassen! ____ Folge uns, um auf dem Laufenden zu bleiben: • X: http://fal.cn/SQtwitter • LinkedIn: http://fal.cn/SQlinkedin • Instagram: http://fal.cn/SQInstagram

Was die Wall Street vor dem Opening bremst, sind die Androhungen einer deutlichen Ausweitung der Zölle gegen die wichtigsten US-Handelspartner. Am Samstag drohte Trump an, ab dem 1. August 30% Zölle auf Warenimporte aus Mexiko und die EU zu verhängen. Kanada drohen Zölle von 35%. Dies betrifft nicht die Bereiche, bei denen Sektorenzölle bereits verhängt wurden. Seit dem „Liberation Day” am 2. April wurden im Grunde keine Handelsabkommen final abgeschlossen. Das Abkommen mit England weist weiterhin große Lücken auf, und mit China befindet man sich weiterhin in Verhandlungen. Die Einigung mit Vietnam scheint auch auf dünnem Eis zu stehen. Zudem warnt Politico am Wochenende, dass der Glaube an dem TACO-Trade zu voreilig sein könnte. Dieses Mal meine es Trump ernst, und ein Zurückrudern sei unwahrscheinlicher geworden. Dass am Dienstag und Mittwoch die Verbraucher- und Erzeugerpreise gemeldet werden, dürfte an der Wall Street zum Wochenauftakt ebenfalls für Zurückhaltung sorgen. Was die Berichtssaison betrifft, ist die Wall Street vor allem bei den Banken optimistisch. Die Messlatte für den S&P 500 hängt mit einem erwarteten Ertragswachstum von nur rund 4% vs. der 12% im ersten Quartal ausgesprochen niedrig. Ein Podcast - featured by Handelsblatt. +++Erhalte einen exklusiven 15% Rabatt auf Saily eSIM Datentarife! Lade die Saily-App herunter und benutze den Code wallstreet beim Bezahlen: https://saily.com/wallstreet +++ +++EXKLUSIVER NordVPN Deal ➼ https://nordvpn.com/Wallstreet Jetzt risikofrei testen mit einer 30-Tage-Geld-zurück-Garantie!+++ +++ Alle Rabattcodes und Infos zu unseren Werbepartnern findet ihr hier: https://linktr.ee/wallstreet_podcast +++ Der Podcast wird vermarktet durch die Ad Alliance. Die allgemeinen Datenschutzrichtlinien der Ad Alliance finden Sie unter https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html Die Ad Alliance verarbeitet im Zusammenhang mit dem Angebot die Podcasts-Daten. Wenn Sie der automatischen Übermittlung der Daten widersprechen wollen, klicken Sie hier: https://datenschutz.ad-alliance.de/podcast.html

Pastor Randy Bradley

As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins? It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York. Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through. On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can. Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting. Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation. How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic. So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting. Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right? So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

As the U.S. wraps up its 90-day tariff pause, the pressure is on — but many of America's key trading partners, including India, haven't signed trade deals.President Donald Trump announced 'Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, but paused from April 9 to July 9 in a bid to sign deals with trading partners.The U.S. successfully signed pacts with Vietnam, China, and the U.K., but did not secure deals with major partners like the EU, Japan, or India.Now, the pause is officially over, and with retaliatory duties expected to take effect from August 1, the future of global trade has just become more uncertain.India may have reason to worry. In FY2025, India's total trade with the U.S. stood at $186 billion, with exports at $115.2 billion and imports at $70.8 billion. enjoyed a trade surplus of $44.4 billion. That kind of imbalance could make India a target for fresh tariffs.However, India has refused to negotiate under a deadline, and the national interest comes first. The Indian government has also been negotiating with the U.S. on a broader trade deal for years, but a breakthrough remains elusive. So what happens next?  Guest: Ajay Srivastava, Founder, Global Trade Research Initiative [GTRI] Host: Nivedita V Edited by Jude Weston Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Trump hokey cokey is back. Tariffs on, tariffs reduced - now they're heading back up again. It really got going on April 2nd- President Trump's so-called “Liberation Day” - when he announced a swathe of punitive tariffs on trading partners across the world. The markets tanked and then there was a pause. Countries had 90 days to strike a trade deal - 90 deals in 90 days - we were told. But there weren't. There were only 2. The deadline was this week but now it's next month. But in the past few days the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters with higher tariffs for those without a deal - which is almost everyone. David Aaronovitch asks his guests just what is going on, what's happening to world trade and what happens next? Guests: Soumaya Keynes, Economics Columnist The Financial Times Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Michigan Philip Coggan, author, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill and David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon

Featured in this podcast are Sajjid, Rajiv and Arindam discuss the outlook for Asia macro and rates/FX/equity markets in the aftermath of the latest US announcement on tariffs this week This podcast was recorded on Jul 10, 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5025093-0, https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5023592-0 and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-5024505-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

In this episode Canadian bond portfolio manager, Crista Caughlin, and balanced portfolio manager, Steven Visscher discuss Q2's market and economic activity. Topics covered include “Liberation Day's” tariff shocks, central bank policies, inflation, and other themes. Key Takeaways:   The announcement and subsequent deferral of sweeping U.S. tariffs caused significant market volatility, with a sharp initial selloff followed by a rapid recovery. The uncertainty around trade policy had a pronounced impact on economic growth expectations and market sentiment.   The quarter featured slowing growth in both the U.S. and Canada, with notable weakness in consumer spending and business investment. Despite expectations, inflation remained contained, and employment data presented a mixed picture—stronger in the U.S., weaker in Canada.   Central banks responded differently to domestic economic conditions. The ECB cut rates twice due to weaker growth and contained inflation, while the Fed and Bank of Canada adopted a wait-and-see approach, maintaining a dovish bias but holding rates steady.   There was a notable reversal in equity performance trends, with international and emerging market equities outperforming U.S. equities. This—among other factors—raised questions about the potential end of U.S. exceptionalism, though we remain cautious against drawing premature conclusions.   Credit spreads tightened to multi-decade lows, reflecting either investor confidence or complacency. Interest rates remained range-bound despite volatility, and the structural shift to higher neutral rates appears to have already occurred in recent years.   Host: Kevin Minas, CFA, MBA, CAIA – Institutional Portfolio Manager Guests: Crista Caughlin, CFA – Portfolio Manager Steven Visscher, CFA – Portfolio Manager   This episode is available for download anywhere you get your podcasts.    Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.    Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com.   Follow us on social:   LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/   Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ 

【欢迎订阅】 每天早上5:30，准时更新。 【阅读原文】 标题：How America's economy is dodging disaster It is astonishingly dynamic, even under the weight of tariffs 正文： Economic doom beckoned after President T announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2nd. Stocks crashed; forecasters predicted a recession within the year. Three months on, the mood is rather more relaxed. Prices in shops are not noticeably higher, unemployment is flat and the S&P 500 index is resurgent, back at all-time highs. Mr T's 90-day pause for many of his tariffs, announced a week after Liberation Day to calm markets, will end on July 9th. Although he has threatened to send letters declaring talks over and tariffs back on, nobody seems too worried. 知识点：beckon /ˈbekən/，v. to make a gesture to someone, usually with the hand or head, to encourage them to come closer; (of something unpleasant) to seem likely to happen.（招手示意；召唤；（不快之事）似乎将要发生） • She beckoned him over to where she was sitting.她招手让他到自己坐的地方来。 • Economic doom beckoned after the president announced his liberation day.总统宣布解放日后，经济厄运似乎将要降临。 获取外刊的完整原文以及精讲笔记，请关注微信公众号「早安英文」，回复“外刊”即可。更多有意思的英语干货等着你！ 【节目介绍】 《早安英文-每日外刊精读》，带你精读最新外刊，了解国际最热事件：分析语法结构，拆解长难句，最接地气的翻译，还有重点词汇讲解。 所有选题均来自于《经济学人》《纽约时报》《华尔街日报》《华盛顿邮报》《大西洋月刊》《科学杂志》《国家地理》等国际一线外刊。 【适合谁听】 1、关注时事热点新闻，想要学习最新最潮流英文表达的英文学习者 2、任何想通过地道英文提高听、说、读、写能力的英文学习者 3、想快速掌握表达，有出国学习和旅游计划的英语爱好者 4、参加各类英语考试的应试者（如大学英语四六级、托福雅思、考研等） 【你将获得】 1、超过1000篇外刊精读课程，拓展丰富语言表达和文化背景 2、逐词、逐句精确讲解，系统掌握英语词汇、听力、阅读和语法 3、每期内附学习笔记，包含全文注释、长难句解析、疑难语法点等，帮助扫除阅读障碍。

President Donald Trump this week delayed the planned  9 July tariff hikes on US imports, notifying 22 countries that rates could rise as much as 50% on 1 August.The White House had paused these measures for 90 days to pursue trade deals, but since Trump's so-called Liberation Day announcement on 2 April, only three agreements have been reached. ING's Inga Fechner says the new deadline, which Trump has described as firm, but not 100% firm, prolongs the uncertainty for business and consumers around the world. James Knightley says this is weighing on US economic growth - with GDP forecasts for 2025 markedly lower than at the start of the year. For now at least, markets are taking the news in stride, having recovered from the extreme volatility seen in April. But Padhraic Garvey says tariff-induced inflation and worries about fiscal sustainability present a difficult backdrop for US Treasuries.  In this week's THINK aloud, a replay of our live webinar, we look at the future of so-called reciprocal tariffs, potential sector-specific tariffs, the legal uncertainties ahead, the threat of retaliation and the broader impact on the global economy and financial markets.   

Ryan Petersen is the CEO of Flexport. Petersen joins Big Technology to discuss how the latest round of tariffs and trade-war maneuvers are rewiring supply chains worldwide. Tune in to hear him unpack everything from 145 % “Liberation Day” duties and $5 K containers to the death of the de minimis loophole and what it means for Amazon, Temu, and Shein. We also cover the Panama Canal drought, AI that robocalls 400 K truckers, warehouse-robot reality checks, and why customs fraud just became the DOJ's No. 2 white-collar priority. Hit play for a rapid-fire scorecard on what's changing, who's winning, and what's next in global trade. --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack + Discord? Here's 25% off for the first year: https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b Questions? Feedback? Write to: bigtechnologypodcast@gmail.com

When President Trump paused most of his “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days last spring, the administration had hoped to cut dozens of trade deals. As trade advisor Peter Navarro put it, there could be "90 deals in 90 days." But as Trump's deal deadline approached, it became clear that the administration's deal-making push has hit some snags, resulting in only a handful of agreements with the UK, China, and Vietnam. This week, Trump extended his deadline to August 1st and sent public letters to many U.S. trading partners. WSJ's Gavin Bade explains the sticking points that have gotten in the way of “90 deals in 90 days.” Annie Minoff hosts.  Further Listening: - Trump's Plan B After Trade Court Setback  - Inside the Surprise U.S.-China Trade Deal  - Taking Stock of the 'Sell America' Trade  Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

CEO and President of Atlantic Council Fred Kempe discusses how the Trump administration's renewed push for trade deals with foreign partners are being factored into the markets–or not. Meta has lured another AI executive to its team with a multi-million dollar compensation package–this time, it's Ruoming Pang from Apple. Wired Senior Writer Lauren Goode discusses the ongoing tech battle for top AI talent. Plus, the TSA may be changing shoe requirements at the airport, Elon Musk is releasing a new version of his AI bot Grok, and Courtney Reagan reports on the best deals for Prime Day shoppers.  In this episode:Lauren Goode, @LaurenGoodeFred Kempe, @FredKempeCourtney Reagan, @CourtReaganMegan Cassella, @mmcassellaJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkMelissa Lee, @MelissaLeeCNBCKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Megan Cassella - 03:18Courtney Reagan - 16:57Fred Kempe - 23:15Lauren Goode - 35:42

Phil Blancato thinks large caps are priced to perfection, but there are still opportunities in small caps. He says the latter will “rip higher” if the Fed cuts rates in September. He was “never bought into the rhetoric” of Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that Trump would never deliberately hurt the U.S. economy like that. He likes Amazon (AMZN), citing diversified revenue and a competitive retail arm. He's also bullish on Costco (COST), calling it an “anchor” stock that one can “set and forget.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The Fed is way behind with rate cuts, Trump is showing the world that the Fed is political and he is moving the country away from wealth confiscation. Trump is now issuing letters to many countries, the [CB] is in panic, their system is coming to an end. The [DS] is fighting back with everything they have. The will fight to keep the illegals in the country because if they lose the illegals they lose the ability to cheat in the elections and use the illegals to cause riots. FBI released a memo which reveals that Epstein killed himself and there is no client list or videos. Think about why the memo was released, why was there no date or other marking that are normally on a press release or memo. Did the FBI just expose a leaker? Did the FBI go along with it. Does POTUS telegraph his moves? Would you reveal the evidence now? Justice is coming.   Economy White House Trade and Manufacturing Economy Advisor Peter Navarro Discusses the Misalignment With Fed Chair Powell White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro talks about how the Fed monetary position is lagging with the intent of Trump's MAGAnomic policy.  In the short review, Chairman Jerome Powell is approximately 0.50% in rate cuts behind the growth plan of President Trump.   Trump tariffs are the reverse of decades of ‘exfiltration' of American wealth. Just as there was a shift when the value of the Wall Street economy surpassed the value of the U.S. Main Street economy,    Source: theconservativetreehouse.com  Trump's tariff policy prioritizes AI, ‘big things': ‘We're not looking to make t-shirts and sneakers' President Donald Trump said that his tariffs strategy, aimed at boosting U.S. industry by taxing foreign products or forcing other nations to lower their trade barriers, is not intended to bring low-skill work such as garment manufacturing to America. “We're not looking to make sneakers and T-shirts. We want to make military equipment. We want to make big things. We want to make, do the AI thing,” Trump said. Source:  worldtribune.com Trump Announces Tariffs For South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, Kazakstan The letters closely follow those sent out earlier in the day to Japan and South Korea, whose products will be hit by a 25 percent tariff rate beginning August 1. Trump told Myanmar and Laos that they will face 40 percent tariffs on their exports, slightly lower than the rates announced at the Trump administration's April 2nd Liberation Day event. In April, Trump said Myanmar would face a 44 percent tariff and Laos a 48 percent tariff. South Africa will face 30 percent tariffs, the same rate announced on Liberation Day. Kazakhstan and Malaysia will both face 25 percent rates, Trump said. Kazakhstan was looking at a 27 percent tariff on Liberation Day and Malaysia was set to be hit with a 24 percent tariff. The administration appears to be fixing tariff rates in five percentage point steps, rounding up or down from the Liberation Day tariffs.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Political/Rights Schumer demands investigation of Trump Weather Service vacancies in wake of Texas flooding

That's what Gene Marks thinks. In this week's conversation, Gene lists the tax changes in President Trump's big beautiful bill that he's happiest about, while emphasizing that what he's really happiest about is the tax certainty that passage of the bill creates for business owners. Gene also explains why he thinks owners who complain about Trump's tariffs have no one to blame but themselves and why he's not all that concerned about the uncertainty the tariffs are generating, including what will happen this week when Trump's Liberation Day pause expires.

US equity futures are lower with S&P pointing down. Bonds mixed. US 10-year yields holding at 4.3%, and 2-year down to 3.9%. Asian markets are trading mostly lower, European equity markets narrowly mixed. Dollar firmer. Oil down after OPEC+ producers announced agreement to boost crude output by larger-than-expected 548Kbpd in August. Gold lower. Industrial metals weaker. Tariff deadline nears as US warns it will begin imposing "take it or leave it" trade terms. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned tariffs to revert to Liberation Day/steeper levels though also signaled some leeway by adding that new tariffs to take effect on 1-Aug. Still there's some uncertainty whether Asian countries can secure trade agreements with US by the deadline. Companies Mentioned: Capgemini, WNS Holdings, META Platforms, NFDG, ByteDance

Wednesday is the day when US President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs are set to come into effect. There's still some uncertainty about what will happen, says Chief Investment Strategist of Investec Wealth & Investment International Chris Holdsworth and even a further postponement of the tariffs is a possibility. Investec Focus Radio SA

The first half of 2025 was full of economic surprises and volatility. With recent record highs in US markets, this Independence Day we're looking at if the fireworks can continue for Wall Street. FOX Business correspondent Gerri Willis speaks with Annex Wealth Management's chief economist Brian Jacobsen about how we got here from Liberation Day and shares which stocks & sectors are trending hot in 2025. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The first half of 2025 was full of economic surprises and volatility. With recent record highs in US markets, this Independence Day we're looking at if the fireworks can continue for Wall Street. FOX Business correspondent Gerri Willis speaks with Annex Wealth Management's chief economist Brian Jacobsen about how we got here from Liberation Day and shares which stocks & sectors are trending hot in 2025. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

So yeah, you think back to where we were as a country a year ago today with a dementia riddled president, open borders, rampant crime, high inflation, raging wars and a Trump conviction and Independence Day weekend is just about here but this year I feel liberated too.

In this episode, Fisher Investments' founder Ken Fisher answers a fresh batch of listeners questions. Ken discusses the post-“Liberation Day” market drop and whether investors should expect more tariff-related volatility. He also addresses sequence of return risk, before taking a closer look at the relationship between rising interest rates and the dollar. These insights and much more in this episode of the Market Insights podcast. Episode recorded on 6/18/2025 Visit our episode page, where you'll find links to more information and resources to help you become a more informed investor. And if you have questions about capital markets, investing or personal finance, email us at marketinsights@fi.com. We may use them in an upcoming episode.

Our analysts Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss the upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariffs and the potential impacts for U.S. trade.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, US Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the outlook for US trade policy. It's Wednesday, July 2nd at 10:00 AM in New York.We have a big week ahead as next Wednesday marks the expiration of the 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Ariana, what's the setup?Ariana Salvatore: So this is a really key inflection point. That pause that you mentioned was initiated back on April 9th, and unless it's extended, we could see a reposition of tariffs on several of our major trading partners. Our base case is that the administration, broadly speaking, tries to kick the can down the road, meaning that it extends the pause for most countries, though the reality might be closer to a few countries seeing their rates go up while others announce bilateral framework deals between now and next week.But before we get into the key assumptions underlying our base case. Let's talk about the bigger picture. Michael, what do we think the administration is actually trying to accomplish here?Michael Zezas: So when it comes to defining their objectives, we think multiple things can be true at the same time. So the administration's talked about the virtue of tariffs as a negotiating tactic. They've also floated the idea of a tiered framework for global trading partners. Think of it as a ranking system based on trade deficits, non tariff barriers, VAT levels, and any other characteristics that they think are important for the bilateral trade relationship. A lot of this is similar to the rhetoric we saw ahead of the April 2nd "Liberation Day" tariffs.Ariana Salvatore: Right, and around that time we started hearing about the potential, at least for bilateral trade deals, but have we seen any real progress in that area?Michael Zezas: Not much, at least not publicly, aside from the UK framework agreement. And here's an important detail, three of our four largest trading partners aren't even scoped for higher rates next week. Mexico and Canada were never subject to the reciprocal tariffs. And China's on a separate track with this Geneva framework that doesn't expire until August 12th. So we're not expecting a sweeping overhaul by Wednesday.Ariana Salvatore: Got it. So what are the scenarios that we're watching?Michael Zezas: So there's roughly three that we're looking at and let me break them down here.So our base case is that the administration extends the current pause, citing progress in bilateral talks, and maybe there's a few exceptions along the way in either direction, some higher and some lower. This broadly resets the countdown clock, but keeps the current tariff structure intact: 10% baseline for most trading partners, though some potentially higher if negotiations don't progress in the next week. That outcome would be most in line, we think, with the current messaging coming out of the administration.There's also a more aggressive path if there's no visible progress. For example, the administration could reimpose tariffs with staggered implementation dates. The EU might face a tougher stance due to the complexity of that relationship and Vietnam could see delayed threats as a negotiating tactic. A strong macro backdrop, resilient data for markets that could all give the administration cover to go this route.But there's also a more constructive outcome. The administration can announce regional or bilateral frameworks, not necessarily full trade deals, but enough to remove the near term threat of higher tariffs, reducing uncertainty, though maybe not to pre-2024 levels.Ariana Salvatore: So wide bands of uncertainty, and it sounds like the more constructive outcome is quite similar to our base case, which is what we have in place right now. But translating that more aggressive path into what that means for the economy, we think it would reinforce our house view that the risks here are skewed to the downside.Our economists estimate that tariffs begin to impact inflation about four months after implementation with the growth effects lagging by about eight months. That sets us up for weak but not quite recessionary growth. We're talking 1% GDP on an annual basis in 2025 and 2026, and the tariff passed through to prices and inflation data probably starting in August.Michael Zezas: So bottom line, watch carefully on Wednesday and be vigilant for changes to the status quo on tariff levels. There's a lot of optionality in how this plays out, as trade policy uncertainty in the aggregate is still high. Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Markets staged a stunning rebound in the first half of 2025 - after a brutal start that saw the S&P 500 plunge into bear market territory. Anthony and Piers rewind the chaos: Trump's tariff shock on “Liberation Day,” the inflation scare that followed, and how a market left for dead came roaring back to record highs.They unpack the Fed's evolving rate path, the quiet rise of a “shadow chair” ahead of Powell's potential exit, and why Nvidia's earnings may have rescued the AI hype cycle. Plus, Netflix and Uber emerge as surprise stars of H1, while Italy's bond market revival puts it on the economic leader board.From VIX lows to fiscal turnarounds, this episode cuts through the noise and spotlights what really mattered and what's coming next.(00:00) Intro & Themes in Focus(02:18) Market Overview: A Roller Coaster Year(08:43) What to Watch Going Forward(13:20) Trumps Escalate to Negotiate Strategy(14:48) AI Stocks Remain a Key Driver(16:49) VIX: The Fear Gauge(19:56) Sector Performance and Key Players(23:39) Banks Strong Performance in 1H25(25:50) Netflix Successful Turnaround(31:13) Uber's Turnaround and Future Prospects(36:07) Italy's Economic Recovery and Political Stability

PREVIEW TRADE: Colleague Alan Tonelson remarks at the incorrect predictions and unneeded gloom that Liberation Day. More. 1918

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Kelvin Pang explain why international issuers may be interested in so-called ‘dim sum' bonds, despite Asia's growth drag.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Kelvin Pang: And I'm Kelvin Pang, Head of Asia Credit Strategy. Andrew Sheets: And today in the program we're going to finish our global tour of credit markets with a discussion of Asia. It's Friday, June 20th at 2pm in London. Kelvin Pang: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Andrew Sheets: Kelvin, thank you for joining us. Thank you especially for joining us so late in your day – to complete this credit World tour. And before we get into the Asia credit market, I think it would just be helpful to frame at a very high level – how you see the economic picture in the region. Kelvin Pang: We do think that the talks and potential deals will probably provide some reprieve towards the growth for the region, but not a big relief. We do think that tariff uncertainty will linger here, and it will keep growth low here; especially if we do think that CapEx of the region will be weaker due to tariff uncertainty. A weaker U.S. dollar, for example, plus monetary easing will help offset some of this growth drag. But overall, we do think that the Asia region could see 90 basis point down in real GDP growth from last year. Andrew Sheets: So, we've got weaker growth in Asia as a function of high tariffs and high tariff uncertainty that can't be offset by further policy easing. In the context of that weaker growth backdrop, higher uncertainty – are credit spreads in the region wide? Kelvin Pang: No, they're actually really low. They're probably at like the lowest since we start having a data in 2013. So definitely like a 12 to 13 year low of the range. Andrew Sheets: And so why is that? Why do you have this kind of seemingly odd disconnect between some real growth challenges? And as you just mentioned, really some of the tightest credit spreads, some of the lowest risk premiums that we've seen in quite some time? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we get this question a lot from clients, and the short answer is that, you know, the technicals, right? Because the last two years, two-three years, we've been seeing negative net supply for Asia credit. A lot of that is driven by China credit. And if you look at year-to-date, non supply remain still negative net supply. And demand side, for example, has not really picked up that strongly. But it still offsets any outflows that we see the last two-three years; is offset by this negative net supply. So, you put this two together, we have this very strong technicals that support very tight spread. And that's why spread has been tight at historical end in the last, I would say, one to two years. Andrew Sheets: Do you see this changes? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we do think it's changed. We have a framework that we call the normalization of Asia Credit technicals. And for that to change, essentially our framework is saying that Treasury yields use need to go down, and dollar funding need to go down. Cheaper dollar funding will bring back issuers. Net supply should pick up. Demand for credit tends to do well in a rate cut cycle. Demand tends to pick up in a rate cut cycle. So, if we have these two supports, we do think that Asia credit technicals will normalize. It's just that, you know, we have four stages of normalization. Unfortunately we are in stage two now, and we still have a bit of room to see some further normalization, especially if we don't get rate cuts. Andrew Sheets: Got it. So, you know, we do think that if Morgan Stanley's yield forecasts are correct, yields are going to fall. Issuers will look at those lower yields as more attractive. They'll issue more paper in Asia and that will kind of help rebalance the market some. But we're just not quite there yet. Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we feel like this road to rate cuts has been delayed a few times, in the last two-three years. And that has really been a big conundrum for a lot of Asia credit investors. So hopefully third time's a charm, right. So next year's a big year. Andrew Sheets: So, I guess while we're waiting for that, you also have this dynamic where for companies in Asia, or I guess for any company in the world, borrowing money locally in Asia is quite cheap. You have very low yields in China. You have very low local yields in Japan. How do those yields compare with the economics of borrowing in dollars? And what do you think that, kind of, means for your market? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, I think the short answer is that we are going to see more foreign issuers in local currency market. And, you know, we wrote a report in in March to just to pick on the dim sum corporate bond market. It benefits… Andrew Sheets: And Kelvin, just to stop you there, could you just describe to the listener what a dim sum bond is? And probably why you don't want to eat it? Kelvin Pang: Yes. So dim sum bond is basically a bond denominator in CNH. So, CNH is a[n] offshore Chinese renminbi, sort of, proxy. And it's called dim sum because it's like the most local cuisine in Hong Kong. Most – a lot of dim sum bonds are issued in Hong Kong. A lot of these CNH bonds are issued in Hong Kong, And that's why, [it has] this, you know, sort nickname called dim sum. Andrew Sheets: So, what is the outlook for that market and the economics for issuers who might be interested in it? Kelvin Pang: Yeah. We think it's a great place for global issuers who have natural demand for renminbi or CNH to issue; 10 years CGB is now is like 1.5-1.6 percent. That makes it a very attractive yield. And for a lot of these multinationals, they have natural renminbi needs. So, they don't need to worry about the hedging part of it. And what – and for a lot of investor base, the demands are picking up because we are seeing that renminbi internationalization are making some progress. You know, progress in that means better demand. So, overall, we do think that there is a good chance that the renminbi market or the dim sum market can be a bit more global player – or global, sort of, friendly market for investors. Andrew Sheets: Kelvin, another sector I wanted to ask you about was the China property sector. This was a sector that generated significant headlines over the last several years. It's faced significant credit challenges. It's very large, even by global standards. What's the latest on how China Property Credit is doing and how does that influence your overall view? Kelvin Pang: it's been four plus years, since first default started. and we've been through like 44 China property defaults, close to about 127 billion of total dollar bonds that defaulted. So, we are close to the end of the default cycle. Unfortunately, the end or default cycle doesn't mean that we are in the recovery phase, or we are in the speedy recovery phase. We are seeing a lot of companies struggling to come out restructuring. There are companies that come out restructuring and re-enter defaults. So, we do think that it is a long way to go for a lot of these property developers to come out restructuring and to get back to a going concern, kind of, status – I think we are still a bit far. We need to see the recovery in the physical property markets. And for that to happen, we do need to see the China economy to pick up, which give confidence to the home buyers in that sense. Andrew Sheets: So, Kelvin, we started this conversation with this kind of odd disconnect that kind of defines your market. You have a region that has some of the most significant growth risks from tariffs, some of the highest tariff exposure, and yet also has some of the lowest credit risk premiums with these quite tight spreads. If you look more broadly, are there any other kind of disconnects in your market that you think investors around the world should be aware of? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we do think that investors need to take advantage of the disconnect because what we have now is a very compressed spread. And we like to be in high quality, right? Whether it is switching our Asia high yield into Asia investment grade, whether it is switching out of, you know, BBB credit into A credit. We think, you know, investors don't lose a lot of spread by doing that. But they manage to pick out higher quality credit. At the same time, we do think that one thing unique about Asia credit is that we have significant exposure to tariff risk. Asia countries are one of the few that are, you know; seven out the 10 countries that are having trade surplus with the U.S. And that's why we think that the iTraxx Asia Ex-Japan CDS index could be a good way to get exposure to tariffs. And the index did very well during the Liberation Day sell off. Now it's trading back to more like normal level of 70-75 basis point. We do think that, you know, for investors who want long tariff with risk, that could be a good way to add risk. Andrew Sheets: Kelvin, it's been great talking to you. Thanks for taking the time to talk. Kelvin Pang: Thank you, Andrew. Andrew Sheets: And thank you listeners as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

The latest FOX News poll results show 79% of Americans do believe Iran poses a serious threat, with 78% saying they are “extremely worried about Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.” President Trump has stressed that while he is not angling for U.S. involvement and he would have preferred they just signed a fair nuclear deal, he firmly believes we cannot allow Tehran to have a nuclear weapon. In two weeks' time, his administration will make a decision on U.S. involvement. FOX News Sunday anchor Shannon Bream joins to discuss the political repercussions of the President's decision in the Middle East. The stock market has recovered from April's big tariff-related plunge, but now there is new uncertainty for Wall Street to focus on when it comes to the Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East. President of Kaltbaum Capital Management and FOX Business contributor Gary Kaltbaum joins to break down the miraculous recovery made by American businesses in the wake of “Liberation Day” tariffs and the market's resiliency so far in the face of escalations in the Middle East. Don't miss the good news with Tonya J. Powers. Plus, commentary from the host of “Tomi Lahren is Fearless on Outkick,” Tomi Lahren. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices