Podcasts about Liberation Day

Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference. So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle. Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum. And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front? Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth. Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable. And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline growth here is effectively zero. Michelle Weaver: And how does power play into the reshoring story? AI and data centers are generating huge demand for power that well outstrip supply. Is there a risk that companies that want to reshore are not able to do so because of the power constraints?Christopher Snyder: It's a great question. I think it's part of the reason that this is moving more slowly. The companies that sell this power equipment tend to prioritize the data center customers given their scale in magnitude of buying. But ultimately, we think this is coming and it's a big opportunity for U.S. power to extend the upcycle.Manufacturing accounts for 26 percent of the electricity in the country. Data center accounts for about 5 percent. So, if the industrial economy returns to growth, there will be a huge pull on the grid; and I view it as a competitive advantage. If you think about the future of U.S. manufacturing, we're simply taking labor out and replacing it with electricity. That is a phenomenal trade off for the U.S. And a not as positive trade off for a lot of low-cost regions who essentially export labor to the world. I'm sure Adam will have more to say about that. Michelle Weaver: And Adam, I want to bring robotics and humanoid specifically into this conversation as the U.S.' technological edge is a big part of the reshoring story. So how do humanoids fit into reshoring? How much would they cost to use and how could they make American manufacturing more attractive? Adam Jonas: Humanoid robots – we're talking age agentic robots that make decisions from themselves autonomously due to the dual purpose in the military. You know, dual purpose aspect of it makes it absolutely necessary to onshore the technologies.At the same time, humanoid robots actually make it possible to onshore those technologies. Meaning you need; we're not going to be able to replicate manufacturing and onshore manufacturing the way it's currently done in China with their environmental practices and their labor – availability of affordable cheap human labor.Autonomous robots are both the cause of onshoring. And the effect of onshoring at the same time, and it's going to transform every industry. The question isn't so much as which industry will autonomous robots, including humanoids impact? It's what will it not.And we have not yet been able to find anything that it would. When you think about cost to use – we think by 2040 we get to a point where to Chris's point, the marginal cost of work will be some factor of electricity, energy, and some depreciation of that physical plant, or the physical robot itself. And we come up with a, a range of scenarios where centered on around $5 per hour. If that can replace two human workers at $25 an hour, that can NPV to around $200,000 of NPV per humanoid. That's discounting back 15 years from 2040.Michelle, there's 160 million people in the U.S. labor market, so if you just substituted 1 percent of that or 1.6 million people out of the U.S. Labor pool. 1.6 million times $200,000 NPV; that's $320 billion of value, which is worth, well, quite a lot. Quite a lot of money to a lot of companies that are working on this. So, when we get asked, what are we watching, well, in terms of the bleeding edge of the robot revolution, we're watching the Sino-U.S. competition. And I prefer to call it competition. And we're also watching the terra cap companies, the Mag 7 type companies that are quite suddenly and recently and very, very significantly going after physical AI and robotics talent. And increasingly even manufacturing talent. So again, to circle back to Chris's point, if you want evidence of reshoring and manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in this country, look at some of these TMT and tech and AI companies in California. And look at, go on their hiring website and watch all the manufacturing and robotics people that they're trying to hire; and pay a lot of money to do so. And that might be an interesting indicator of where we're going.Michelle Weaver: I want to dig in a little bit more there. We're seeing a lot of the cutting-edge tech coming out of China. Is the U.S. going to be able to catch up?Adam Jonas: Uh, I don't know. I don't know. But I would say what's our alternative. We either catch up enough to compete or we're up for grabs. OK?I would say from our reading and working closely with our team in China, that in many aspects of supply chain, manufacturing, physical AI, China is ahead. And with the passage of time, they are increasingly ahead. We estimate, and we can't be precise here, that China's lead on the U.S. would not only last three to five years, but might even widen three to five years from now. May even widen at an accelerating rate three to five years from now.And so, it brings into play is what kind of environment and what kind of regulatory, and policy decisions we made to help kind of level the playing field and encourage the right kind of manufacturing. We don't want to encourage trailing edge, Victorian era manufacturing in the U.S. We want to encourage, you know, to skate to where the puck is going technology that can help improve our world and create a sustainable abundance rather than an unsustainable one. And so, we're watching China very, very closely. It makes us a little bit; makes me a little bit kind of nervous when we – if we see the government put the thumb on the scale too much.But it's invariably going to happen. You're going to have increased involvement of whichever administration it is in order to kind of set policies that can encourage innovation, education of our young people, repurposing of labor, you know. All these people making machines in this country now. They might get, there may be a displacement over a number of years, if not a generation.But we need those human bodies to do other things in this economy as well. So, we; I don't want to give the impression at all in our scenarios that we don't need people anymore. Michelle Weaver: What are the opportunities and the risks that you see for investors as robotics converges with this broader U.S. manufacturing story? Adam Jonas: Well, Michelle, we see both opportunities and risks. There are the opportunities that you can measure in terms of what portion of global GDP of [$]115 trillion could you look at. I mean, labor alone is $40 trillion.And if you really make humanoid that can do the work of two workers, guess what? You're not going to stop at [$]40 trillion. You're going to go beyond that. You might go multiple beyond that. Talking about the world before AI, robotics and humanoid is like talking about the world before electricity. Or talking about business before the internet. We don't think we're exaggerating, but the proof will be in the capital formation. And that's where we hope we can be of assistance to our clients working together on a variety of investment ideas. But the risks will come and it is our professional responsibility, if not our moral responsibility, to work with our partners across research to talk about those risks. Michelle, if we have labor displacement, go too quickly, there's serious problems. And if you don't, if you don't believe me, go look at, look at you know, the French Revolution or the Industrial Revolution, or Age of Enlightenments. Ages of scientific enlightenment frequently cohabitate times of great social and political turmoil as well. And so, we think that these risks must be seen in parallel if we want to bring forth technologies that can make us more human rather than less human. I'm sorry if I'm coming across as a little preachy, but if you studied robots and labor all day long, it does have that effect on you. So, Michelle, how do you see innovation priorities changing for industrials and investors in this environment?Michelle Weaver: I think it's huge as we're seeing AI and technology broadly diffuse across different segments of the market, it's only becoming more important. About two-thirds of companies at the conference mentioned AI in some way, shape, or form. We know that from transcripts. And we're seeing them continue to integrate AI into their businesses. They're trying to go beyond what we've just seen at the initial edge. So, for example, if I think about what was going on within AI adoption a couple years ago, it was largely adding a chat bot to your website that's then able to handle a lot of customer service inquiries. Maybe you could reduce the labor there a little bit. Now we're starting to see a lot more business specific use cases. So, for example, with an airline, an airline company is using AI to most optimally gate different planes as they're landing to try and reduce connection times. They know which staff needs to go to another flight to connect, which passengers need to move to another flight. They're able to do that much more efficiently. You're seeing a lot on AI being adopted within manufacturing to make manufacturing processes a lot more seamless. So, I think innovation is only going to continue to become more important to not only industrials, but broadly the entire market as well.Clearly the industry is being shaped by adaptability, collaboration, and a focus on innovation. So, Chris, Adam, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Adam Jonas: Always a pleasure. Michelle.Christopher Snyder: Thank you for having us on. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

As we head towards the end of the year, financial markets are caught between fading growth and expectations regarding monetary policy. How should investors navigate financial markets in the final months of 2025, and where do we see the sweet spots?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Julius Baer's Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day, what they expect from the Fed and the ECB for the rest of the year, and the current global opportunities for investors, particularly, but not only, in the equity and fixed income space.(00:32) - Introduction of topic and speakers (01:12) - Macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day (02:10) - Asia's macroeconomic picture (05:05) - Year-end headline research calls (05:39) - Developed-market equity preferences (06:09) - Breaking away from the ‘US only' mindset (06:42) - Emerging market equity sweet spots (08:26) - Where to find value in fixed income (09:10) - Commodities outlook (11:06) - US dollar set to weaken? (11:46) - Dealing with tariff news (12:45) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for U.S. stocks after Friday's nonfarm payroll data reinforced the thesis of a transition from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing Friday's Payroll report and what it means for equities. It's Monday, Sept 8th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. The heavily anticipated nonfarm payroll report on Friday supports our view that the labor market is weak. However, this is old news to the equity market as we have been discussing for months. First, the labor market data is perhaps the most backward-looking of all the economic series. Second, it's particularly prone to major revisions that tend to make the current data unreliable in real time, which is why the National Bureau of Economic Research typically declares a recession started at a time when most were unaware we were in one. Furthermore, history suggests these revisions are pro-cyclical, meaning they get more negative going into a recession and then more positive once the recovery's begun. It appears this time is no different. Indeed, Friday's revisions were better than last month's by a wide margin suggesting the labor market bottomed in the second quarter. This insight adds support to our primary thesis on the economy and markets that I have been maintaining for the past several years. More specifically, I believe a rolling recession began in 2022 and finally bottomed in April with the tariff announcements made on “Liberation Day.” After the initial phase of this rolling recession, that was led by a payback in Covid pull-forward demand in tech and consumer goods, other sectors of the economy went through their own individual recessions at different times. This is a key reason why we never saw the typical spike in the metrics used to define a traditional recession, although the revisions data is now revealing it more clearly. The historically significant rise in immigration post-covid and subsequent enforcement this year have also led to further distortions in many of these labor market measures. While we have written about these topics extensively over the past several years, Friday's weak labor report provides further evidence of our thesis that we are now transitioning from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. In short, we're entering a new cycle environment and the Fed cutting interest rates will be key to the next leg of the new bull market that began in April. Central to our view is the notion that the economy has been much weaker for many companies and consumers over the past 3 years than what the headline economic statistics like nominal GDP or employment suggest. We think a better way to measure the health of the economy is earnings growth, and breadth; as well as consumer and corporate confidence surveys. Perhaps the simplest way to determine if an economy is doing well or not is to ask: is it delivering prosperity broadly? On that score, we think the answer is “no” given the fact that earnings growth has been negative for most companies over the past 3 years. The good news is that growth has finally entered positive territory the past 2 quarters. This coincides with the v-shaped recovery in earnings revisions breadth we have been highlighting for months. We think this supports the notion that the worst of the rolling recession is behind us and likely troughed in April. As usual, equity markets got this right and bottomed then, too. Now, we think a proper rate cutting cycle is likely and necessary for the next leg of this new bull market. Given the risk that the Fed may still be focused on inflation more than the weakness in the lagging labor market data, rate cuts may materialize more slowly than what equity investors want. Combined with some signs that liquidity may be drying up a bit as both corporate and Treasury issuance increases, it would not surprise me if equity markets go through some consolidation or even a correction during the seasonally weak time of the year. Should that happen, we would be buyers of that dip and likely even consider moving down the quality curve in anticipation of a more dovish Fed and coordinated action with the Treasury. Bottom line, a new bull market for equities began with the trough in the rolling recession that began in 2022. It's still early days for this new bull which means dips should be bought. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

David Giroux, chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price — named Morningstar's Outstanding Portfolio Manager for 2025 for his work at T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation — says his allocation fund is holding near its highest levels ever of bonds, specifically intermediate fixed-income, largely because he thinks stocks are overvalued and real growth will remain hard to find. Giroux — who has beaten the average peer in his Morningstar asset class for 17 consecutive years, the longest streak in the entire fund industry — has long disdained investing in foreign stocks and says the rally that 2025 has produced overseas is an anomaly and that no one "should ever feel a need to own an inferior index just for diversification purposes." In the wide-ranging interview, Giroux says that the Magnificent Seven stocks have actually been the Mag 6, plus Tesla, saying that the car maker has no business being in the portfolio of leading securities. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, put Klarna in The Danger Zone in April, when the buy-now, pay-later financial firm was attempting to go public but put off the process in the face of the market's drop after "Liberation Day." Now the company is back attempting an initial public offering, and that brings them back under Trainer's scrutiny again, before they ever get launched as a stock. Natalia Brown, chief consumer affairs and creditor relations officer for National Debt Relief, discusses the firm's survey showing that six in 10 American parents are going into debt for their children. She talks about what parents are foregoing for their own lives to help the kids, and what they are paying for that puts them into debt.

Pop & Politics: Trump's ‘Liberation Day' in D.C. Shocks the Left! Crime, Blackouts, and Political Firestorms

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required)   Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, we cover new revelations about the Minneapolis trans shooter's family and manifesto, fresh polling on Trump's crime crackdown, a major court battle over tariffs, and Trump's firing spree across the federal government. From tragic lessons in Minnesota to seismic fights in Washington, today's brief connects crime, economics, and politics shaping America's future.   Trans Shooter's Family Secrets and Final Words: Robert Westman's manifesto admitted, “Gender and weed f***'ed up my head… I wish I never tried experimenting with either.” He blamed his father for pushing him into transitioning and his mother for warning he would regret it, writing, “You were right mama, but the way you handled it led me to wanting to kill so so many people.” Bryan calls it proof of medical quackery, marijuana's dangers, and adults failing a child into madness.   Trump's Crime Crackdown Gains Support: A new AP poll shows 53 percent of Americans approve of Trump's approach, with DC Mayor Muriel Bowser conceding his surge “worked” after carjackings fell 87 percent. She added, “When carjackings go down, neighborhoods feel safer and are safer.” In Chicago, Mayor Brandon Johnson signed an order to resist federal forces, but courts say Trump's deployments are legal under the Insurrection Act.   Court Battle Over Trump's Tariffs: An appeals court struck down Trump's sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs under IEEPA, setting up a Supreme Court fight in October. Trump warned, “If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America.” Meanwhile, Trump ended the $800 “de minimis” exemption, slashing it to $200 and rocking supply chains. Some small retailers warn they will go bust, while U.S. tomato growers and flatware makers report new life under tariff protections.   Trump Fires Federal Employees and Questions Vaccines: From the EPA to the DOJ to the CIA, Trump is firing staff en masse. At the CDC, he broke from his past support for Operation Warp Speed, declaring, “It is very important that the Drug Companies justify the success of their various Covid Drugs… I want the answer, and I want it NOW.” Meanwhile, Tulsi Gabbard's revocation of 37 security clearances included a CIA officer just promoted undercover, abruptly ending her 30-year career. Bryan says Trump is cutting with “a chainsaw, not a scalpel” to root out the Deep State.   "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32     Keywords: Robert Westman trans shooter manifesto, gender dysphoria regret, marijuana psychosis mass shooting, Trump crime crackdown poll, Muriel Bowser carjackings down, Brandon Johnson Chicago ICE order, Trump Insurrection Act authority, Trump Liberation Day tariffs, Supreme Court IEEPA case, de minimis exemption $200, U.S. tomato tariffs, Sherill flatware revival, Trump fires CDC CIA EPA DOJ staff, Trump questions Covid vaccines, Tulsi Gabbard CIA clearance revocation

(The Center Square) – Two weeks after declaring “Liberation Day” in Washington, D.C., to combat crime, President Donald Trump signed executive orders to end cashless bail in the nation's capital, while taking steps to eliminate it throughout the country. The president signed the executive orders on Monday morning in the Oval Office. The moves threaten to withhold federal funding from states and jurisdictions that don't comply with his executive action, which could have a major impact on states like California and Illinois. Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxxRead more: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_75d94d90-a498-4c41-b955-2d38a159ec8b.html

What do college football, tariffs, and AI pilots gone wrong have in common?In this week's Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Kevin Brown and Tom Burton connect cultural trends, economic contradictions, and digital transformation in wholesale distribution. From the E³ Model (Experience, Efficiency, Effectiveness) to LeadSmart Channel Cloud™ and the failure rate of corporate AI pilots, this episode explores why distributors must move from siloed data to customer intelligence platforms that drive real growth.What You'll LearnWhy redefining CRM as a Customer Enablement Tool changes adoption and ROIHow tariff extensions and Liberation Day shifts affect supply chain planningWhy most AI pilot projects fail, and how to avoid repeating their mistakesHow the hidden buyer phenomenon is reshaping B2B purchasing decisionsWhy customer experience investment will be the biggest trend in 2026Episode Highlights:03:55 – College football, NIL money, and how it parallels short-term vs. long-term strategy in distribution 12:40 – LeadSmart Channel Cloud™ and why CRM reimagined means measurable outcomes 22:05 – Breaking down GDP growth: why a 3.3% headline hides real 1.6% growth 31:48 – Tariffs beyond China: Liberation Day shocks for Southeast Asia supply chains 42:15 – The E³ Model: Experience, Efficiency, and Effectiveness as the new playbook 53:02 – Why 95% of AI pilots fail and how to set success criteria 01:04:18 – Invisible influencers: the hidden buyers shaping B2B decisions 01:19:50 – Customer experience as the driver—not the byproduct—of transactionsTools, Frameworks, or Strategies Mentioned:LeadSmart Channel Cloud™ – AI-enabled CRM + customer intelligence platformGeniusFeed – AI-driven smart alerts for repsE³ Model – Experience, Efficiency, Effectiveness as growth pillarsAgentic AI Workflows – AI-driven automation with expert oversightHidden Revenue Detection – surfacing untapped opportunities in ERP/eCommerce dataClosing Insight:“If you have siloed data, you have siloed AI. The winners will unify data to make supply chains resilient and future-proof.” – Kevin BrownLeave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/ Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.

In the first of a two- part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss the outcome of the Jackson Hole meeting and the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed rate path during the rest of the year. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Last Friday, the Jackson Hole meeting delivered a big surprise to markets. Both stocks and bonds reacted decisively.Today, the first of a two-part episode. We'll discuss Michael's reaction to Chair Powell's Jackson Hole comments and what they mean for his view on the outlook for monetary policy. Tomorrow, the outlook for interest rate markets and the US dollar. It's Thursday, August 28th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, here we are after Jackson Hole. The mood this year felt a lot more hawkish, or at least patient than what we saw last week. And Chair Powell really caught my attention when he said, “with policy and restrictive territory, the baseline outlook for the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That line has been on my mind ever since. So, let's dig into it. What's your gut reaction?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me, and I think I would highlight three aspects of his Jackson Hole comments that were important to me. So, I think what happened here, of course, is the Fed became much more worried about downside risk to the labor market after the July employment report, right? So, at the July FOMC meeting, which came before that report, Powell had said, ‘Well, you know, slow payroll growth is fine as long as the unemployment rate stays low.' And that's very much in line with our view. But sometimes these things are easier said than done. And I think the July employment report told them perhaps there's more weakness in the labor market now than they thought.So, I think the messaging here is about a shift towards risk management mode. Maybe we need to put in a couple policy rate cuts to shore up the labor market. And I think that was the big change and I think that's what drove the overall message in the statement. But there were two other parts of it that I think were interesting, you know. From the economist's point of view, when the chair explicitly writes in a speech that ‘the economy now may warrant adjustments in our policy stance,' right? I mean, that's a big deal. It suggests that the decision has been largely made, and I think anytime the Fed is taking a change of direction, either easing or tightening, they're not just going to do one move. So, they're signaling that they're likely prepared to do a series of moves, and we can debate about what that means. And the third thing that struck me is right before the line that you mentioned he did qualify the need to adjust rates by saying, well, whatever we do, we should, “Proceed cautiously.” So, a year ago, as you recall, the Fed opened up with a big 50 basis point rate cut, which was a surprise. And cut at three successive meetings. So, a hundred basis points of cuts over three meetings, starting with a 50 basis point cut. I think the phraseology ‘proceeds carefully' is a signal to markets that, ‘Hey, don't expect that this time around.' The world's different. This is a risk management discussion. And so, we think, two rate cuts before year end would be most likely. Maybe you get three. But I don't think we should expect a large 50 basis point cut at the September meeting. So those would be my thoughts. Downside risk to the labor market – putting this into words says something important to me. And the ‘proceed cautiously' language I think is something markets also need to take into account.Matthew Hornbach: So how do you translate that into a forecasted path for the Fed? I mean, in terms of your baseline outlook, how many rate cuts are you forecasting this year? And what about in 2026?Michael Gapen: Right. So, we previously; we thought what the Fed was doing was leaning against risks that inflation would be persistent. They moved into that camp because of how fast tariffs were going up and the overall level of the effective tariff rate. So, we thought they would stay on hold for longer and when they move, move more rapidly. What they're saying now in a risk management sense, right; they still think risk to inflation is to the upside, but the unemployment rate is also to the upside. And they're looking at both of those as about equally weighted. So, in a baseline outlook where the Fed's not assuming a recession and neither are we, you get a maybe a dip in growth and a rise in inflation. But growth recovers and inflation comes down next year. In that world, and with the idea that you're proceeding cautiously, they're kind of moving and evaluating, moving and evaluating.So, I think the translation here is: a path of quarterly rate cuts between now and the end of 2026. So, six rate cuts, but moving quarterly, like September and December this year; March, June, September, and December next year; which would take us to a terminal target range of 2.75 to 3. So rather than moving later and more rapidly, you move earlier, but more gradually. That's how we're thinking about it now.Matthew Hornbach: And that's about a 25 basis point upward adjustment to the trough policy rate that you were forecasting previously…Michael Gapen: That's right. So, the prior thought was a Fed that moves later may have to cut more, right? Because you're – by holding policy tighter for longer – you're putting more downward weight on the economy from a cyclical perspective. So, you may end up cutting more to essentially reverse that in 2026. So, by moving earlier, maybe a Fed that moves a little earlier, cuts a little less.Matthew Hornbach: In terms of the alternative outcomes. Obviously, in any given forecast, things can go not as expected. And so, if the path turns out to be something other than what you're forecasting today, what would be some of the more likely outcomes in your mind?Michael Gapen: Yeah, as we like to say in economics, we forecast so we know where we're wrong. So, you're right, the world can evolve very differently. So just a couple thoughts. You know, one, now that we're thinking the Fed does cut in September, what gets them not to cut? You'd need a – I think, a really strong August employment report; something around 225,000 jobs, which would bring the three-month moving average back to around 150, right. That would be a signal that the May-June downdraft was just a post Liberation Day pothole and not trend deterioration in the labor market. So that, you know, would be one potential alternative. Another is – although we've projected quarterly paths in this kind of nice gradual pace of cuts, we could get a repeat of last year where the Fed cuts 50 to 75 basis points by year end but realizes the labor market has not rolled over. And then we get some tariff pass through into inflation. And maybe residual seasonality and inflation in Q1. And then the Fed goes on hold again, then cuts could resume later in the year. And I also think in the backdrop here, when the Fed is saying we are easing in a risk management sense and we're easing maybe earlier than we otherwise would – that suggests the Fed has greater tolerance for inflation. So, understanding how much tolerance this Fed or the next one has for above target inflation, I think could influence how many rate cuts you eventually get in in 2026. So, we could even see a deeper trough through greater inflation tolerance. And finally, of course, we're not out of the woods with respect to recession risk. We could be wrong. Maybe the labor market is trend weakening and we're about to find that out. Growth is slowing. Growth was about 1.3 percent in the first half of the year. Final sales is softer. Of course, in a recession alternative scenario, the Fed's probably cutting much deeper, maybe down to 1 50 to 175 on the funds rate.So, I mean, Matt, you make a good point. There's still many different ways the economy can evolve and many different ways that the Fed's path for policy rates can evolve.Matthew Hornbach: Well, that's a good place to bring this Part 1 episode to an end. Tune in tomorrow, for my reaction to the market price action that followed Chair Powell's speech -- and what it means for our outlook for interest rate markets and the U.S. dollar.Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

President Trump's tariffs will lower deficits by an estimated $4 trillion, per a Congressional Budget Office projection released last Friday. While consumer confidence has dipped, the President has assured that the nation's economic tide is turning, as companies both foreign and domestic expand inside the U.S. Former member of the National Security Council during Trump's first term and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Alexander Gray joins to explain the benefits of the Trump administration's “Liberation Day” tariffs as well as weighing in on President Trump's push to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Juvenile crime has become a growing concern across the country, with communities struggling to strike a balance between accountability and rehabilitation. From curfews to new ordinances, officials are looking for methods to rein in disruptive and sometimes violent criminal behavior and get kids back on track. University of Miami sociology professor and former director at the Federal Bureau of Justice Statistics, Alex Piquero, joins the Rundown to break down the trends and if juvenile crime really is on the rise in America. Plus, commentary from Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee Youth Council, CJ Pearson. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

President Trump's tariffs will lower deficits by an estimated $4 trillion, per a Congressional Budget Office projection released last Friday. While consumer confidence has dipped, the President has assured that the nation's economic tide is turning, as companies both foreign and domestic expand inside the U.S. Former member of the National Security Council during Trump's first term and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Alexander Gray joins to explain the benefits of the Trump administration's “Liberation Day” tariffs as well as weighing in on President Trump's push to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Juvenile crime has become a growing concern across the country, with communities struggling to strike a balance between accountability and rehabilitation. From curfews to new ordinances, officials are looking for methods to rein in disruptive and sometimes violent criminal behavior and get kids back on track. University of Miami sociology professor and former director at the Federal Bureau of Justice Statistics, Alex Piquero, joins the Rundown to break down the trends and if juvenile crime really is on the rise in America. Plus, commentary from Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee Youth Council, CJ Pearson. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

After navigating some turbulence following “Liberation Day” on April 2, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500®, and the Nasdaq composite have pushed toward record highs. Is the latest bull run sustainable for the remainder of 2025 and beyond? Join Transamerica Asset Management, Inc., CIO Tom Wald for a new Market Pulse podcast as he discusses four market catalysts that could help stocks continue to rise: tariff resolutions, interest rate cuts, corporate earnings growth, and a lower-for-longer tax environment. Tom also provides context for his year-end S&P 500 price target and explains why the market remains favorable for investment-grade bonds.4755215   08/25

President Trump's tariffs will lower deficits by an estimated $4 trillion, per a Congressional Budget Office projection released last Friday. While consumer confidence has dipped, the President has assured that the nation's economic tide is turning, as companies both foreign and domestic expand inside the U.S. Former member of the National Security Council during Trump's first term and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Alexander Gray joins to explain the benefits of the Trump administration's “Liberation Day” tariffs as well as weighing in on President Trump's push to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Juvenile crime has become a growing concern across the country, with communities struggling to strike a balance between accountability and rehabilitation. From curfews to new ordinances, officials are looking for methods to rein in disruptive and sometimes violent criminal behavior and get kids back on track. University of Miami sociology professor and former director at the Federal Bureau of Justice Statistics, Alex Piquero, joins the Rundown to break down the trends and if juvenile crime really is on the rise in America. Plus, commentary from Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee Youth Council, CJ Pearson. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Bekah welcomes back SPS's resident financial guru to discuss the impact of Trump's tariffs on the state of world finances, markets, and leftist politics on both sides of the Atlantic. --- Further Materials: What is the Relevance of the EU for the Left? (Leipzig, 06/24): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DlJpbdI4rs Tariffs, Trade War & the Working Class (Independent Labor Club of New York, 29.3.25): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anLh3-U9jKs D.L. Jacobs' remarks published as Liberation Day: https://www.sublationmag.com/post/liberation-day The Crisis of Neoliberalism (Vienna, 05/17): https://platypus1917.org/2017/05/03/the-crisis-of-neoliberalism/ The Millennial Left is Dead (10/17): https://platypus1917.org/2017/10/01/millennial-left-dead/ Beyond Left and Right? (London, 07/24): https://youtu.be/xschDfeBlDg?si=Ydiu0Ps7u5GaDsqR Radical Interpretations of the Present Crisis Panel Series: New York, 11/14/12: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSUlDcXEnR8 London, 12/01/12: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qH7ofme8_bE Chicago, 12/03/12: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFepPXbu13o ----- Original soundtracks by Tamas Vilaghy Editing work by Michael Woodson To learn more about Platypus, go to www.platypus1917.org

(The Center Square) – More than a week after President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” in Washington, D.C., his administration is touting the operation as a success as more Republican governors commit National Guard troops. Attorney General Pam Bondi said that since the operation began on Aug. 11, law enforcement officials have made 465 arrests, adding that “nearly half” of the “arrests have occurred in the high-crime areas” of the district. The D.C. Police Union has calculated major decreases in crimes since “Liberation Day,” including 83% drops in carjackings, 46% decreases in robberies, 22% drops in violent crime, 21% decreases in car theft, and 6% drops in property crime. The group adds that there has been an 8% reduction in crime overall.Support this podcast: https://secure.anedot.com/franklin-news-foundation/ce052532-b1e4-41c4-945c-d7ce2f52c38a?source_code=xxxxxx Full story: https://www.thecentersquare.com/national/article_46a7c8d9-b819-4342-afe4-b7006b5c6c1b.html

Join us for an explosive episode of Joe Untamed as we dive into the heart of America's urban crisis and the change in federal law enforcement. Exactly one week after President Trump's bold declaration of "Liberation Day" in Washington, D.C., we unpack the dramatic takeover of the city's policing with retired Air Force Colonel Berney Flowers. As a former congressional candidate, author, and podcast host, Berney brings his unique perspective from nearly 21 years of military service, including deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, to dissect the failures of state leadership in Maryland and the potential blueprint Trump's DC crackdown offers for other high-crime areas. We'll explore whether this is a temporary fix or a model for the future, and how his experiences in conflict zones shape his views on domestic safety. But that's not all—our second guest, Kyle Seraphin, a suspended FBI whistleblower turned relentless reformer, will expose the rot within the bureau under the new leadership of Kash Patel and Dan Bongino. With Kyle's firsthand account of the FBI's mishandling of cases like January 6 and the Epstein client list, we'll uncover the corruption that has plagued the organization and question whether Patel and Bongino can truly turn the tide. From Kyle's daily show on Rumble to his sharp critiques on X, this episode promises to ignite your passion for truth and justice. Don't miss this unfiltered, hard-hitting conversation that could redefine your understanding of crime, corruption, and the fight for bringing America back.  

The reciprocal tariffs President Trump announced in April went into effect this month. It's too early to tell exactly how these tariff increases for 70 international trading partners will impact St. Louis directly, but economists are looking to history and data for insights into possible effects. Max Dvorkin of the Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis shared what he and fellow economists are tracking. Global Food Group's Shayn Prapaislip and Sincerely, the Craft's Jade Moore provided updates on how their respective businesses are faring as they navigate tariff-related aspects of the changing business landscape.

President Donald J. Trump is a consummate salesman and a master marketer. On April 2, Liberation Day, the day he announced his worldwide tariffs, it was a presentation long on benefits but short on costs. Like any salesman, Trump was anxious to "sell" the country on the benefits of this new import tax. The new tariffs would provide a short-term, one-time price boost, while offering a lasting income stream to "even the playing field" in international trade, said Trump.

Markets have already priced in a Fed cut, given the mixed economic data in the July labor and CPI prints. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha makes the case for why we're standing by our baseline call for a higher bar for a rate cut. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, Global Economist at Morgan Stanley. Today – our evaluation of the Fed's policy path following the July CPI print, and the broader implications for other central banks. It's Wednesday, August 20th at 2pm in New York. Our baseline call has been that the Fed will remain on hold this year, and last week's CPI print has not changed that view. As we have noted, average tariff rates are still ramping up given the implementation delays, and so their cumulative effect on prices could be more lagged. Within the CPI print, tariff exposed goods other than apparel and autos continued to be firm. The surprise came in services inflation, which showed a reversal led by the uptick in airfares and hotel prices, which had been running in deflationary territory for much of this year. Some of the pushback against our view on inflation stepping up over the summer due to tariffs was that services disinflation could compensate. But as this print showed, that is unlikely to be the case. While we expect services inflation to continue to moderate, we think that services disinflation in the first half of [20]25 was exaggerated by weakness and volatile competence; and both core CPI and core PCE inflation are still at their pace from last year. So further acceleration in goods inflation from tariff effects over the summer would still see inflation remaining well above the Fed's target. After the July U.S. employment and CPI reports, the bar for the Fed to stay on hold in September is clearly higher. So, what are the risks to our call? The road goes back to how the data and the Fed's reaction function will evolve over ahead of the September meeting. The August jobs report will be important. If it is a solid employment report, with a sequential acceleration in payrolls and the unemployment rate around 4.2 to 4.3 percent, then the Fed could likely look through the weakness in the May and June prints – attributing the slowdown to the uncertainty following Liberation Day and not representative of the underlying trend. If, however, there were to be a sharp drop off in the hiring pace, which is currently not being indicated by other job market indicators such as jolts or claims, then the Fed could take the view that the labor market is much weaker than anticipated and restart easing. There is also the possibility of a cut from a risk management perspective. Even with inflation running well above target, the Fed could take the July employment report as a clear signal of downside risk to the labor market and start the easing cycle. Messaging from Fed officials has so far been mixed, with some taking signal from the jobs data and others remaining less worried with the unemployment rate remaining low. Outside the U.S., central bank trajectories remain tightly linked to both the Fed's path and the evolving U.S. growth outlook. Recent labor market data have introduced downside risks to our ECB and BoJ calls. In Europe, if Euro strength persists and U.S. recession risks rise, our euro area economists see a reduced risk to their September easing baseline. In Japan, the Bank of Japan remains cautious. Stronger U.S. data could tilt the balance toward a rate hike later this year – though October remains a high hurdle, making December or beyond more plausible. That said, if the U.S. economy slows in line with our forecast, the likelihood of further BoJ tightening diminishes reinforcing our base case – the BoJ staying on hold through end of 2026. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Title: How You Can Win Trump's Tariff War  Summary: The video hosted by Seth Bradley discusses the potential economic implications of President Trump's aggressive tariff policies and how they might present unique opportunities for wealth building in America amidst global economic upheaval. Bradley explains that tariffs—essentially taxes on imports—are economic tools that can protect domestic industries but also lead to broader economic challenges, particularly if not applied thoughtfully. He outlines the dynamics of Trump's tariff strategy, including a systematic and reciprocal approach to trade that could reshape relationships with various countries.   Seth Bradley emphasizes that while the stock market is experiencing volatility and media outlets are reacting negatively, there are underlying opportunities that savvy investors should seize. He advocates for a focus on U.S. manufacturing and infrastructure, energy independence, and advancements in AI and automation as key areas for investment. The video posits that although immediate challenges like inflation and retaliation from trade partners are likely, the long-term outlook sees a potential reshoring of American industry, a reemergence of economic sovereignty, and ultimately an empowered U.S. economy. Links to Watch and Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgWxz_V0lPk&list=PLSfheWyV7beFqERLX4ebBUJ4SmzmF6z8e&index=2 Bullet Point Highlights: Market Volatility: The stock market sees a significant downturn as tariffs take effect, presenting both challenges and opportunities. Tariff Strategy: Trump's tariffs are described as calculated economic warfare, designed to compel countries to negotiate trade terms. Manufacturing Reshoring: The video advocates for investing in U.S.-based manufacturing as companies look to bring jobs back onshore. Energy Independence: Emerging opportunities in U.S. energy production are highlighted amid tariffs hurting foreign oil imports. AI and Automation: The potential for AI-driven solutions to replace expensive offshore labor costs is discussed as a strategic investment avenue. Investment Strategies: Three key strategies are proposed for capitalizing on the unique economic landscape: investing in infrastructure, energy, and AI technologies. Vision for the Future: The potential long-term benefits of Trump's tariff policies are framed as a chance to reset trade imbalances and promote U.S. economic strength. Transcript: (Seth Bradley) Trump just broke the global economy and it might be the best thing to happen to America in decades. The stock market is crashing. China, Mexico, Canada, they're retaliating. The mainstream media is melting down. But the truth, if you understand what's really going on, this might be the single greatest opportunity of the decade to build wealth. So, let's break it down. No fluff, just facts. What's up, big brains? Welcome back to Raise the Bar, where I simplify complex money, legal, and political moves so you   can make power plays in real time. I'm Seth Bradley, securities attorney, founder, and investor, and I quit a multiple six-f figureure big law job to pursue entrepreneurship and a life without limits. Today, I'm giving you the truth about tariffs, Trump's Liberation Day, and how to turn this global shakeup into your personal leverage point. All right, let's get it. Let's start out with the basics. So, what exactly is a tariff? At its core, a tariff is a tax on imports. That's right. It is a tax. When a foreign   company sells goods into the US, the government slaps on a tax, usually a percentage of the total value. So, if a car from Germany costs 50k and there's a 10% tariff, then that car now costs $55,000 to bring into the US. So, who pays the tariff? Well, it's US importers, not the foreign shippers. And yes, it trickles down to you, the consumer, right here in the US. But tariffs aren't just taxes. They're economic weapons. And right now, Trump's using them with either surgical precision or as a nuclear bomb,   depending on how you look at it. All right. To know where you're going to go, you have to know where you come from. Tariffs go way back in American history. It's not anything new. And in fact, before the IRS, tariffs were how we paid for the entire federal government, rather than through, let's say, income taxes, property, capital gains taxes, and all these other taxes that we all just know and love today. Tariffs haven't always resulted in good or bad for the US. It's a mixed bag. Alexander Hamilton pushed for tariffs to protect   US industry. Success, yes. Abraham Lincoln used them to industrialize the North during the Civil War. Success, yes. But in the 1930s, the Smooth Holly Tariff Act backfired hard, triggering a trade war that deepened the Great Depression. So, not always successful. Tariffs can protect jobs and industries, but if they're too extreme or poorly timed, they can tank the economy. So, the key is strategy. And whether or not you believe in Trump, he's playing chess here, not checkers. Something you never   used to associate with Trump is humble, but he has come a long way and is humble enough to at least have some of the greatest economic minds in his corner. So, they have a business-minded mentality, and that's exactly what this is. We need to stop treating the government like it's aing goodwill. It's not here to give you for free, and it's certainly not here to take what's yours. It's here to work for you, for what the people want, and decide through a democratic process what to do. Once upon a time, we literally became a   country because we wanted independence, self-sufficiency, and freedom. We chose to break free from overt taxation, oppression, control, regulation, and government oversight. What's happening in 2025? In case you missed it, let's get caught up right now. Trump has declared Liberation Day and followed up with the most aggressive global tariff policy in modern history. A minimum of 10% tariffs on every import into the US, up to 60% tariffs on China. That changes every single day though. Reciprocal   tariffs on all countries. If a country charges us 25%, we charge them 25% back. But that's not exactly true. And we'll get into more of that later. Canada and Mexico not exempt. This isn't just about China. It's about a full global reset. So the kicker is formula based. Trump's trade team built a publicly disclosed algorithm that adjusts tariff rates based on countries how countries treat the US exports. It's dynamic. is constantly changing. It updates monthly. This isn't random. It's calculated   economic warfare. All right, next. Now that it's in effect, what's happening? Well, you're seeing it. Wall Street is panicking. S&P 500 is down 14% in the first two weeks. Tech stocks are plummeting. Elon Musk just posted on X that supply chain realignment is overdue and this pain is necessary. Mexico is negotiating. Canada's threatening retaliation, but also showing signs of blinking. China, they're digging the toes in, but there's exports that are suffering. You just won't hear all this stuff on CNBC, but you know, many of   these global players are coming to the table. Tariffs are doing exactly what they're designed to do. Force negotiation, good or bad. Trump's move is forcing every country to rethink dependence on the US consumer. And not just that, it's forcing us to rethink how we depend on them. All right, let's set the record straight on a few of these common things that are floating around here. One, tariffs only hurt the other country. That's totally wrong. US businesses and consumers feel the sting, and we will. We are, at least   at first. Sometimes you're going to hear this is just economic nationalism. But that's also wrong. This is about strategic leverage, not about isolating us. Third, it's inflationary in the short term. This is true. But if local supply chains relocize, prices stabilize and strengthen the domestic economy and we'll be good to go. But right now, we're feeling it. Next, tariffs can bring manufacturing back. This is true. Maybe, and we're already seeing US factories reannounced, reopenings in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, places   like that. And we've seen trillions of dollars of investment promises rolling in already. But if this steers us into a deep recession, companies won't have the resources or confidence to build. All right. So, what's my prediction? And some of these aren't even predictions cuz they're happening right now. Are risks, short-term inflation, price increases, stock market volatility, retaliation from trade partners. These things are already happening. So, they're probably just going to escalate for the near future.   But the potential upsides, reshoring of manufacturing, massive supply chain independence, huge massive negotiation leverage for better and at the very least equal trade terms. Stronger US dollars, capital fleas, unstable markets abroad. Those are all massive positives, but they're not going to happen overnight. So, what's my prediction? short-term pain, long-term economic sovereignty, but we're entering a serious rebalancing period, and the US is reasserting its economic power. And while it hurts now, this could finally   reset the broken trade game that's been bleeding our economy dry for decades and would eventually take us down. All right, so what do we do about it? We need to capitalize. So, what are the three smartest ways to capitalize on Trump's 2025 tariffs? There are lots of unknowns and unpredictability in business. But one thing is always true. When there's panic in the streets, there is massive opportunity somewhere and there's going to be wealth transfer. For those with cool heads, fortitude, and discipline, we can win. So, what am I   doing? And what can you do to capitalize on all of this unpredictability? All right. Strategy number one, invest in US manufacturing and infrastructure. Tariffs equal a return to Americanmade. Full stop. Trump's reciprocal tariffs aren't just economic sanctions. They're a forced reshoring event here in the US. Global trade is breaking. Supply chains are rerouting. Countries like China, Mexico, and Canada, they're scrambling to adjust. And meanwhile, America is rebuilding. This is your moment to build   wealth while the rest of the market panics. So, how do we actually do this? Play number one, invest passively in the U in industrial and infrastructure projects. Tap into private equity funds, syndications, or REIT alternatives that focus on, of course, manufacturing facilities, US-based supply chain logistics, cold storage, and warehouse assets, transportation, freight infrastructure, that stuff works, too. These funds are just pouring into the reshoring initiatives, not just from the government, but from Fortune 500   companies rethinking their risk exposure. Play number two for my capital raisers out there. Raise capital for experienced sponsors in the same space. If you're not the operator, but you've got a network, become a capital aggregator. Use SPVS or fund of funds models like TriVest to compliantly pull investor capital into high quality US industrial and infrastructure deals. Bring your network along. Bring limited partners into deals with better terms, higher leverage, and strategic upside. Focus on experienced sponsors. Of   course, do your due diligence. Make sure they have a track record in industrial real estate or again critical infrastructure. All right, play number three. If you have the resources, buy directly. Also got to have the knowhow, right? Focus on manufacturing assets, warehouses near growing ports, logistics hubs, things like that. Make sure you have a boots on the ground partner if it's not you in that local market. Think markets like Columbus, Kansas City. These cities are turning into many powerhouses as global shipping patterns   shift inland. Bonus play, buy dirt where the roads are going. Right? So, if you're into residential and you don't know anything about industrial and you're not comfortable with it, think about residential and mixed juice land near inland ports, new highways, industrial corridors, growth zones, things like that. These plays won't necessarily cash flow day one, but they will appreciate like crazy over the next 3 to 5 years as that infrastructure is finally built out. Strategy number two, energy independence investing. If   manufacturing is the body, energy is the blood, where are you going to power this thing from? Trump's tariffs are slamming foreign oil and renewables equipment. And that gives domestic US producers, especially in oil and gas and renewables such as batteries, an unmatched advantage. And with the world watching this tariff war unfold, there's one thing everyone agrees on. Energy is national security right now. So what do you do? Play number one, invest passively, of course, in US energy assets, oil and gas royalties, own a   slice of production without the drilling risk. You have to dig deep into those documents and see what you're getting yourself into. There's a lot of different oil and gas funds that are structured in different ways and have different tax incentives versus cash flow. So, make sure you dig deep into that. Also look at battery manufacturers like Stack Rack Battery, especially US-based ones, solar developers, those leveraging domestic supply chains. Look for funds and startups focused on energy independence, not just ESG headlines.   Real world example, I had mentioned StackRrack battery. I co-founded StackRrack, a US-based modular battery company. And we're not just producing batteries, we're part of the national grid modernized push. Our battery systems are designed, they're assembled, and they're shipped right here in the US. We're ULcertified, scalable, and recession resistant. And tariffs just gave us a built-in mode. This is exactly what happens when policy meets opportunity. You just have to open your eyes and find those right opportunities.   And a bonus here, tax credit tailwinds. The US is still offering massive tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act, for now at least. Pair that with import based price increases and you've got a once in a decade profit window. And building on that, what's your capital aggregator play? If you don't want to operate, partner with fund managers or sponsors deploying capital into these sectors, be the legal, the capital raising or the strategic partner in high demand governmentbacked tariff fueled energy projects. My law firm,   Raise Law, can help you build any capital raising structure you can imagine. So feel free to reach out. All right, strategy number three, back or build AIdriven alternatives to offshore labor. Tariffs don't just hit goods, they hit services, too. Let me explain. Think about it. If China, Mexico, or Canada are now more expensive to work with because of reciprocal tariffs, that raises the cost of offshore labor. So, enter what's happening right now. AI, automation, US-based software. This is your moment to kill the middleman.   Reduce labor cost and automate what is already going to be offshored. This is your moment to kill the middleman. Reduce labor cost and automate what was once offshored in different countries. So here we go. Play number one. Build or invest in AI tools that replace outsource labor. Think about jobs like customer service, document review and data entry, uh logistics coordination, manufacturing floor labor, things like that. It's not sci-fi. The LLMs and the manufacturing robotics are ready today and the opportunity is right now. All   right, so step-by-step action plan. Identify high friction outsource tasks that just got more expensive. Right. Next, what's the capital aggregator play? partner with early stage AI founders or companies. Use your network expertise or capital raising jobs to make strategic investments or even try to leverage an advisory equity position or a role in a startup in these sectors. I've done it and feel free to reach out and I can tell you more about how I've done it. So, pro tip though, don't just invest in AI for the sake of it. Invest   in AI that displaces foreign labor. That's where the pressure is. That's where the real value will be. This is the moment most people will fear. We're in it right now and a few smart ones will capitalize. Tariffs are just the first shot in a major larger realignment. And if you're able to stay calm, not get caught up in all the political nonsense. This is a time where real wealth changes hands. Keep your mind clear, keep your eyes open, and if this breakdown helped you see the game clearer, smash that subscribe button,   drop a comment with your take on Trump's global economic strategy, and let me know, are you playing offense or defense? Keep your head in the game. Raise the bar, baby. Until next time, enjoy the journey. [Music] Links from the Show and Guest Info and Links: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DgWxz_V0lPk&list=PLSfheWyV7beFqERLX4ebBUJ4SmzmF6z8e&index=2 https://www.facebook.com/sethbradleyesq/posts/pfbid02RZL2XfebNjV7orN7Ze4Ue8z437ZobHSQoDoCZWwLNwG1VgsshZrRMSkyeGkydwZGl https://www.instagram.com/p/DIUN1PvTvgQ/ https://x.com/sethbradleyesq/status/1910758713683746925 https://www.linkedin.com/posts/sethbradleyesq_tariffs-trump2025-donaldtrump-activity-7316522747164086272-47ae?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAKVay0BMf-qnL2v6W-30PvVRZnCs0eCFQU https://x.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.youtube.com/@sethbradleyesq www.facebook.com/sethbradleyesq https://www.threads.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.instagram.com/sethbradleyesq/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/sethbradleyesq/ https://passiveincomeattorney.com/seth-bradley/ https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/sethbradleyesq https://medium.com/@sethbradleyesq https://www.tiktok.com/@sethbradleyesq?lang=en

TopicsLive Monthly Exopolitics Briefing - 3I/Atlas Alien Invasion Scare https://t.co/CBJLaEzoXD Here's a succinct message about remembering the infinite source intelligence that is inside us and not giving power away to external forces, Anunnaki, gods, ET federations, etc. https://t.co/pvXLRgzrqQ More ET humor. https://t.co/qmqNXzRdMs 3I Atlas: US Navy "Jedi" Admiral's Lead Starship Coming Home: Interview with George Kavassilas: https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1954866692577742874 An insightful channeled message of why scientists have detected the absence of whales singing off the California coast. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955084350787031512 President Donald Trump said: “I'm announcing a historic action to rescue our nation's capital from crime, bloodshed, bedlam, and squalor, and worse. This is Liberation Day in DC, and we're going to take our capital back.” https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955236492374086047 JP (ret. US Army) shares more about his experiences in a med-bed that healed some of his injuries acquired during his covert service. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955256399363277235 White House orders a more aggressive review of Smithsonian museums holdings which has much exopolitical significance. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955413475854848430 My interview on Redacted discussing the exopolitical implications of President Trump federalizing the Washington DC police and liberating the nation's capital.Live Monthly Exopolitics Briefing - 3I/Atlas Alien Invasion Scare https://t.co/CBJLaEzoXD Another video by JP (ret. US Army) describing the different functions of space arks and their locations https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955841821373878757 Nordics taking charge of Space Arks, Deep State and AI - Interview with Alex Collier https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955956253567431079 Congresswoman Anna Luna shares some of her personal conclusions regarding her investigations into UFOs/UAPs https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1955974189535367653 The US Congress is having difficulties in scheduling whistleblowers to testify in SCIF facilities or hearings about UFOs. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1956321419823837467 The next semester of classes to gain an Exopolitics Certificate/Diploma begin on Sept 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXGNFPF3B8A Here's compelling evidence that the collective consciousness of humanity is getting ready for extraterrestrial disclosure. We are very close. https://x.com/MichaelSalla/status/1956364355768918474 Join Dr. Salla on Patreon for Early Releases, Webinar Perks and More.Visit https://Patreon.com/MichaelSalla/

Today's Headlines: Trump and Putin are meeting today in Anchorage, Alaska, at the Cold War-era Elmendorf-Richardson base — which Russian media is treating like a five-star historic landmark. Ukraine's Zelensky wasn't invited to the land-talks party. Trump says he's optimistic about a deal, with a joint press conference possible if things go smoothly (or solo remarks if they don't). Meanwhile, investigators say Russia-backed hackers broke into the federal courts' sealed records system, which holds national security cases and other sensitive files. In politics, California Governor Gavin Newsom marked “Liberation Day” by announcing a ballot measure to take redistricting power from his state's independent commission, while Texas keeps fighting over its own maps. Border Patrol showed up at Newsom's LA event, prompting Mayor Karen Bass to call it “provocative.” Inflation's back in the spotlight as wholesale prices saw their biggest jump since 2022. PBS is still defunded, and conservative group PragerU is being floated as a replacement. And in family news: Ivanka Trump's back to plan a White House UFC fight for America's 250th birthday, while Hunter Biden claims Jeffrey Epstein introduced Donald and Melania Trump — something Melania's lawyers want retracted, but Hunter says he's not backing down. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: NBC News: Russians hail historic Alaska ties ahead of Trump-Putin summit on Ukraine CNN: Live updates: Trump says Putin will make deal on Ukraine as leaders prepare for Alaska meeting NYT: Russia Is Suspected to Be Behind Breach of Federal Court Filing System  The Hill: Watch: Newsom outlines plan to combat Trump, GOP redistricting NYT: ICE shows up to Governor Newsom's press Conference CNBC: Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected The Grio: Potential PBS replacement network says slavery was 'no big deal' in video The Daily Beast: Trump Gives MIA Ivanka New White House Gig Axios: Hunter Biden said he won't apologize to Melania Trump amid lawsuit threat Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Original Release Date: July 11, 2025As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins?It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York.Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through.On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can.Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting.Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation.How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic.So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting.Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right?So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Although tariff negotiations continue, deals are being made, shifting investor focus on assessing the fallout. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen consider the ripple effects on inflation and the bond market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today, how are tariffs impacting the economy and what it means for bond markets? It's Wednesday, August 13th at 10:30am in New York. Michael, we've been talking about how the near-term uncertainty around tariff levels has come down. Tariff deals are, of course, still pending with some major U.S. trading partners like China; but agreements are starting to come together. And though there's lots of ways they could break over time, in the near-term, deals like the one with Europe signal that the U.S. might be happy for several months with what's been arranged. And so, the range of outcomes has shrunk. The U.S.' current effective tariff rate of 16 percent is about where we thought we'd be at year end. But that's substantially higher than the roughly 3 percent we started the year with. So, not as bad as it looked like it could have been after tariffs were announced on April 2nd, but still substantially higher. Now's the time when investors should stay away from chasing tariff headlines and guessing what the President might do next; and instead focus on assessing the impact of what's been done. With that as the backdrop, we got some relevant data yesterday, the Consumer Price Index for July. You were expecting that this would show some clear signs of tariffs pushing prices higher. Why was that? Michael Gapen: Well, we did analysis on the 2018-2019 tariff episode. So, in looking at the input-output tables, which give you an idea of how prices move through certain sectors of the economy, and applying that to the 2018 episode of tariffs – we got the result that you should see some tariff inflation in June, and then sequentially more as we move into the late summer and the early fall. So, the short answer, Mike, is a model based plus history-based exercise – that said yes, we should start seeing the effects of tariffs on those categories, where the direct effect is high. So that'd be most of your goods categories. Over time, as we move into later this year or early next year, it'll be more important to think about indirect effects, if any. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, the July CPI data that came out yesterday, then did it corroborate this view? Michael Gapen: Yes and no. So, I'm an economist, so I have to do a two-handed view on this. So yes… Michael Zezas: Always fair. Michael Gapen: Always, yes. So, yes, core goods prices rose by two-tenths on the month, in June they also rose by two-tenths. Prior to this goods' prices were largely flat with some of the big durables, items like autos being negative, right? So, we had all the give back following COVID. So, the prior trend was flat to negative. The last two months, they've shown two-tenths increases. And we've seen upward pressure on things like household furnishings, apparel. We saw a strong used car print this month, motor vehicle and repairs. So, all of that suggests that tariffs are starting to flow through. Now, we didn't – on the other hand – is we didn't get as much as we thought. New car prices were flat and maybe those price increases will be delayed until models – the 2026 models start hitting the lot. That would be September or later. And we didn't actually; I said apparel. Apparel was up stronger last month. It really wasn't up all that much this month. So, the CPI data for July corroborated the view that the inflation pass through is happening. Where I think it didn't answer the question is how much of it are we going to get and should we expect a lot of it to be front loaded? Or is this going to be a longer process? Michael Zezas: Got it. And then, does that mean that tariffs aren't having the sort of aggregate impact on the economy that many thought they would? Or is maybe the composition of that impact different? So, maybe prices aren't going up so much, but companies are managing those costs in other ways. How would you break that down? Michael Gapen: We would say, and our view is that, yes, you know, we have written down a forecast. And we used our modeling in the 2018-20 19 episode to tell us what's a reasonable forecast for how quickly and to what degree these tariffs should show up in inflation. But obviously, this has been a substantial move in tariffs. They didn't start all at once. They've come in different phases and there's a lot of lags here. So, I just think there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. So, I wouldn't conclude that tariffs are not having the effect we thought they would. I think it's way too early and would be incorrect to conclude, just [be]cause we've had relatively modest tariff pressures in June and July, inflation that we can be sanguine and say it's not a big deal and we should just move on.Michael Zezas: And even so, is it fair to say that there's still plenty of evidence that this is weighing on growth in the way you anticipated? Michael Gapen: I think so. I mean, it's clear the economy has moderated. If we kind of strip out the volatility and trade and inventories, final sales to domestic purchasers 1.5 in the first quarter. It was 1.1 in the second quarter, and a lot of that slowdown was related to spending by the consumer. And a slowdown in business spending. So that that could be a little more, maybe about policy uncertainty and not knowing exactly what to do and how to plan. But it also we think is reflected in a slowdown, in the pace of hiring. So, I would say, you got the policy uncertainty shock first. That also came through the effect of the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs, which probably caused a freeze in hiring and spending activity for a bit. And now I would say we're moving into the part of the world where the actual increase in tariffs are going to happen. So, we'll know whether or not firms can pass these prices along or not. If they can't, we'll probably get a weaker labor market. If they can, we'll continue to see it in inflation.But Mike, let me ask you a question now. You've had all the fun. Let me turn the table. Michael Zezas: Fair enough. Michael Gapen: How much does it matter for you or your team, whether or not these tariffs are pushing prices higher? And/or delaying cuts from the Fed. How do you think about that on your side? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so this question of composition and lags is really interesting. I think though that if the end state here is as you forecast – that we'll end up with weaker growth, and as a consequence, the Fed will embark on a substantial rate cutting program. Then the direction of travel for bond yields from here is still lower. So, if that's the case, then obviously this would be a favorable backdrop for owners of U.S. treasury bonds. It's probably also good news for owners of corporate credit, but the story's a bit trickier here. If yields move lower on weaker growth, but we ultimately avoid a recession, this might be the sweet spot for corporate credit. You've got fundamental strength holding that limits credit risk, and so you get performance from all in yields declining – both the yield expressed by the risk-free rate, as well as the credit spread. But if we tipped into recession, then naturally we'd expect there to be a repricing of all risk in the market. You'd expect there to be some expression of fundamental weakness and credit spreads would widen. So, government bonds would've been a better product to own in that environment.But, of course, Michael, we have to consider alternative outcomes where yields go higher, and this would turn into a bad environment for bond returns that would appear to be most likely in the scenario where U.S. growth actually ticks higher, resetting expectations for monetary policy in a more hawkish direction.So, what do you think investors should watch for that would lead to that outcome? Is it something like an AI productivity boom or maybe something else that's not on our radar? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so I think that is something investors do have to think about; and let me frame one way to think about that – where ex-post any easing by the Fed as early as September might be retroactively viewed as a policy mistake, right? So, we can say, yes, tariffs should slow down growth and maybe that happens in the second half of this year. The Fed maybe eases rates as a pre-emptive measure or risk management approach to avoid too much weakness in the labor market. So even though the Fed is seeing firming inflation now, which it is. It could ease in September, maybe again in December [be]cause it's worried about the labor market. So maybe that's what dominates 2025. And, and like you said, perhaps in the very near term, continues to pull bond prices lower. But what if we get into 2026 and the tariff effect or the tariff drag on growth fades, and the consumer begins to accelerate. So, we don't have a recession, we just get a bit of a divot in growth and then the economy recovers. Then fiscal policy kicks in, right? We don't think the One Big, Beautiful Bill act will provide a lot of stimulus, but we could be wrong. It could kickstart animal spirits and bring forward a lot of business spending. And then maybe AI, as you said; that could be a combining factor and financial conditions would be very easy in that world, in part – given that the Fed has eased, right? So that that could be a world where, you know, growth is modest, but it's firming. Inflation that's moved up to about 3 percent or maybe a little bit higher later this year kind of stays there. And then retroactively, the problem is the Fed eased financial conditions into that and inflation's kind of stuck around 3 percent. Bond yields – at least the long end – would probably react negatively in that world. Michael Zezas: Yeah, that makes perfect sense to us. Well, Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk with me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

It's Wednesday, August 13th, A.D. 2025. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Jonathan Clark Indian jailor and guards beats five pastors Five pastors in central India were assaulted in custody last month.  It all began when a Hindu mob disrupted a church service. Authorities responded by arresting the pastors and slapping them with false charges of forced conversions! Then, the jailor and guards beat the ministers.  One pastor told Morning Star News, “They grabbed the opportunity, and without any trial or evidence beat us mercilessly, simply because we are Christians. … Here in Chhattisgarh [State], they are targeting all the smaller churches. … Hindu extremists target every private celebration taking place in Christian homes.” Please pray for our persecuted brothers and sisters in Christ in India. The country is ranked 11th on the Open Doors' World Watch List of the most difficult countries worldwide to be a Christian.  Proverbs 17:15 says, “He who justifies the wicked, and he who condemns the just, both of them alike are an abomination to the LORD.” Armenia and Azerbaijan sign historic peace deal at White House The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a joint declaration for peace at the White House last Friday.  U.S. President Donald Trump called the agreement “historic” as it aims to end decades of conflict between the two southwestern Asian countries.  Armenia and Azerbaijan also signed economic agreements with the U.S., opening the region to American businesses.  Listen to comments from President Trump. TRUMP: “For more than 35 years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have fought a bitter conflict that resulted in tremendous suffering for both nations. They suffered gravely for so many years. Many tried to find a resolution. … They were unsuccessful. But with this accord, we've finally succeeded in making peace.” Trump cracks down on D.C. crime President Trump announced plans on Monday to crack down on crime in Washington, D.C. National Guard members arrived at the nation's capital yesterday. Trump also put the Metropolitan Police Department of the District of Columbia under federal control.  President Trump said, “This is Liberation Day in D.C. and we're going to take our capital back.” The White House noted, “If Washington, D.C. was a state, it would have the highest homicide rate of any state in the nation.” 415 hostile incidents against U.S. churches in 2024 The Family Research Council released their latest report on hostility against churches in the United States. Last year, American churches faced 415 hostile incidents. That's down from 485 incidents in 2023 but up from 50 incidents in 2018. Incidents included vandalism, arson, gun-related incidents, and bomb threats. Tony Perkins, the president of Family Research Council, remarked, “The American woke Left has been intentional in spreading its hostility toward the Christian faith throughout every corner of America. … Christians must … demand more from their government leaders when it comes to … preventing criminal acts targeting religious freedom.” 77th city becomes sanctuary for the unborn Life News reports that Douglassville, Texas became the 77th city in the U.S. to ban abortion last Tuesday.  The city council of Douglassville unanimously passed an ordinance to become a Sanctuary City for the Unborn. (You can send a quick one-sentence email of thanks to the City Council members through a special link in our transcript today at www.TheWorldview.com) The ordinance prohibits elective abortions in the city limits. It also bans abortions on Douglassville residents, regardless of where the abortion takes place.  Pastor Heston McLaurin of Douglassville Fellowship Church said, “I thank the Lord for every step forward in defending the lives of unborn children. Proverbs 6:17 says that God hates ‘hands that shed innocent blood' and He is the defender of the helpless.” Americans get majority of calories from ultra-processed foods New data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that Americans get most of their calories from ultra-processed foods. Such foods include sandwiches and burgers, sweet bakery products, savory snacks, pizza, and sweetened beverages. Americans get 55 percent of their calories from these ultra-processed foods. That number rose to nearly 62 percent for kids through age 18. 438th baptism anniversary of Indian named Manteo And finally, today marks the 438th anniversary of the baptism of a notable Native American.  Manteo received baptism on August 13, 1587, into the Church of England on Roanoke Island. It was considered the first baptism in the new world and the first baptism of an Indian into the Church of England. The Algonquian Indian helped English settlers at Roanoke make it through a harsh winter in 1585. Manteo also became one of the first Indians to ever visit England. He is remembered as a stalwart friend of the English in the new world. Close And that's The Worldview on this Wednesday, August 13th, in the year of our Lord 2025. Follow us on X or subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

Time Stamps:7:43 - Liberation Day in DC16:09 - Neuro-linguistic programming (NLP)22:29 - Subterranean Sex Abuse32:34 - McMartin Tunnels/Monarch Mind Control36:15 - One Nation Under Stockholm Syndrome41:41 - Waco--Ruby Ridge--9/1148:02 - The Jonestown Massacre56:30 - Postmortem/Call-in Portion1:07:38 - Natacha Jaitt's Suspicious Death1:13:20 - PragerU's White House Partnership1:25:00 - CDC Shooting/RFK Jr. Cancels $500 million in mRNA Vaccine Funding1:53:31 - Ghislaine Maxwell's Work Release Program2:10:23 - Jeffrey Epstein's HandlerVenture into the shadowy realms of power and secrecy with Already Dead, where hosts Jose Galison (@towergangjose) and Austin Picard (@theatrethugawp) dissect the intricate web of conspiracy, covert operations, and the underlying political machinations that might just be pulling the strings of our society.What to Expect:Live Listener Interaction: Call in to share your theories, ask burning questions, or discuss personal experiences related to the topics at hand. In-Depth Explorations: Each episode focuses on a different conspiracy or hidden aspect of political history, offering a platform to question and analyze what's often left unsaid. Thought-Provoking Guests: We invite individuals with insider knowledge or those who've taken the red pill to discuss topics that range from the fringe to the forefront of conspiracy culture. Critical Analysis of Current Affairs: We don't just report on events; we interpret them through the lens of parapolitics, looking for patterns and hidden agendas.Join Us:Every Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET, dive into the depths of the unknown with us. Subscribe, participate in our live call-ins, and be part of a community that seeks to understand the world beyond the surface narrative.Disclaimer: This podcast thrives on speculation, hypothesis, and the examination of alternative theories. It's meant to provoke thought and encourage personal research. Not all discussed is proven fact, but rather a call to question, explore, and understand.Warning: For those not ready to challenge their worldview, tread carefully. Once you enter the world of Already Dead, you might find that the truth is often already dead to the uninitiated. Welcome aboard, where curiosity is your guide.Please consider supporting our work-Austin's Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/c/TheUnderclassPodcastAustin's Spreaker: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-underclass-podcast--6511540Austin's Rumble: https://rumble.com/user/TheUnderclassPodcastAustin's YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheUnderclassPodcast#LiberationDay #ModernManchurian #ManchurianCandidate #NLP #NeurolinguisticProgramming #Nueralink #BigBalls #SubterraneanSexAbuse #McMartinTunnels #MonarchMindControl #StockholmSyndrome #Waco #RubyRidge #Jonestown #NatachaJaitt #PragerU #CDCShooting #mRNAVaccine #GhislaineMaxwell #JeffreyEpsteinBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-underclass-podcast--6511540/support.

Join Opie for a hilarious and heartfelt episode of the Opie Radio podcast, live from Long Island! Fresh off a day of boating and bonding with his brother and kids to honor his late father, Opie dives into a whirlwind of rants and riffs. From the absurd tragedy of Ron the Waiter's shark encounter to a metal detector guy unearthing a 1969 college ring, Opie spares no one—not even Taylor Swift or the Kelsey brothers' podcasting antics. He marvels at a real-life Grand Theft Auto chase in LA, questions the relevance of TV traffic reports in the Google Maps era, and crowns an unlikely hero at AOL for finally pulling the plug on dial-up. Expect sharp humor, nostalgic vibes, and Opie's unfiltered take on life, loss, and the absurdities of 2025

Becky Weiss breaks down the Supreme Court's latest gay marriage drama while President Trump takes center stage in D.C. with a fiery Liberation Day presser — torching Democrats' soft-on-crime policies, exposing the absurdity of cash bail, and facing down a packed press room.We call out Washington Post hypocrisy, mock the Left's bizarre “pots and pans at 8 p.m.” protest plan, and dive into Judge Jeanine's takedown of D.C.'s crime stats. Patel blows the lid off Adam Schiff's alleged leaks of classified intel to hurt Trump, while Gavin Newsom faces ridicule for threatening to redistrict California.Plus:-Charlie Kirk takes Newsom to task-Trump's gold upgrades inside the White House-Adults de-stressing with pacifiers (yes, really)-TikTok melts down over DOGE coin cuts-Brittney Griner's child sparks headlines calling her “pops”-Cristiano Ronaldo's fiancée's massive engagement ring-Jennifer Welch gets roasted for “white savior complex”-Hunter Biden on AI stealing jobs-Doctors feel the AI squeeze-TikTok users complain about… having a job-Laura Loomer joins the fight against Marjorie Taylor GreeneAnd Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes' viral spat — and Candace playing victimSUPPORT OUR SPONSORS TO SUPPORT OUR SHOW!Stay hurricane-ready and be prepared for any emergency with ReadyWise. Visit https://ReadyWise.com and use promo code CHICKS10 for 10% off your entire purchase.Experience your dream bedding and stay cool all night long with Buffy's breathable, eco-friendly comforters and sheets. Get 20% off your first Buffy order using code CHICKS at https://Buffy.coTry Beam's best-selling Creatine and get up to 30% off at https://ShopBeam.com/CHICKS with code CHICKS—limited time only!

On today's Top News in 10, we cover: President Donald Trump declares a state of emergency in Washington, DC to restore safety and protect public servants, citizens, and tourists from crime.  President Trump also announces he will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15 to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine. Keep Up With The Daily Signal Sign up for our email newsletters:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.dailysignal.com/email⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠   Subscribe to our other shows:  The Tony Kinnett Cast: https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL2284199939 The Signal Sitdown: https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL2026390376   Problematic Women:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL7765680741   Victor Davis Hanson: https://megaphone.link/THEDAILYSIGNAL9809784327     Follow The Daily Signal:    X:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://x.com/intent/user?screen_name=DailySignal Instagram:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.instagram.com/thedailysignal/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Facebook:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.facebook.com/TheDailySignalNews/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  Truth Social:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://truthsocial.com/@DailySignal⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  YouTube:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.youtube.com/dailysignal?sub_confirmation=1    Subscribe on your favorite podcast platform and never miss an episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

-President Donald Trump orders the National Guard and federal law enforcement to take over policing in the capital, calling it “Liberation Day in D.C.” -Newsmax reporter Mike Carter joins on the Newsmax hotline, sharing personal stories of street crime and reactions from residents, while questioning the authenticity of organized protests against the Guard's deployment. Today's podcast is sponsored by : BIRCH GOLD - Protect and grow your retirement savings with gold. Text ROB to 98 98 98 for your FREE information kit! GREEN CHEF MEAL KITS: Make this summer your healthiest yet with Green Chef. Head to http://greenchef.com/50NEWSMAX and use code 50NEWSMAX to get fifty percent off your first month, then twenty percent off for two months with free shipping. To call in and speak with Rob Carson live on the show, dial 1-800-922-6680 between the hours of 12 Noon and 3:00 pm Eastern Time Monday through Friday…E-mail Rob Carson at : RobCarsonShow@gmail.com Musical parodies provided by Jim Gossett (www.patreon.com/JimGossettComedy) Listen to Newsmax LIVE and see our entire podcast lineup at http://Newsmax.com/Listen Make the switch to NEWSMAX today! Get your 15 day free trial of NEWSMAX+ at http://NewsmaxPlus.com Looking for NEWSMAX caps, tees, mugs & more? Check out the Newsmax merchandise shop at : http://nws.mx/shop Follow NEWSMAX on Social Media:  -Facebook: http://nws.mx/FB  -X/Twitter: http://nws.mx/twitter -Instagram: http://nws.mx/IG -YouTube: https://youtube.com/NewsmaxTV -Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/NewsmaxTV -TRUTH Social: https://truthsocial.com/@NEWSMAX -GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/newsmax -Threads: http://threads.net/@NEWSMAX  -Telegram: http://t.me/newsmax  -BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/newsmax.com -Parler: http://app.parler.com/newsmax Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

From the first futures in 1848 to today's zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market's periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe's new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024's “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility's inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market's next move before price does.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Cem on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps: 59:42 - Introduction to the series02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going?10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool18:55 - The history of the VIX index23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge optionsCopyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put...

Becky Weiss breaks down the Supreme Court's latest gay marriage drama while President Trump takes center stage in D.C. with a fiery Liberation Day presser — torching Democrats' soft-on-crime policies, exposing the absurdity of cash bail, and facing down a packed press room. We call out Washington Post hypocrisy, mock the Left's bizarre “pots and […]

On today's Top News in 10, we cover: President Donald Trump declares a state of emergency in Washington, DC to restore safety and protect public servants, citizens, and tourists from crime.  President Trump also announces he will be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, August 15 to discuss ending the conflict […]

President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” in Washington, D.C., issuing a public safety emergency, taking temporary federal control of the city’s police force, and deploying 800 National Guard troops—despite falling violent crime rates. Critics, as well as the mayor of Washington D.C., blasted the action as politically motivated overreach, citing the city's current downward crime trend and potential encroachment on local democracy. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rickey Smiley and the crew spoke about various topics on The Rickey Smiley Morning Show Podcast today. President Donald Trump declared “Liberation Day” in Washington, D.C., issuing a public safety emergency, taking temporary federal control of the city’s police force, and deploying 800 National Guard troops—despite falling violent crime rates. Critics, as well as the mayor of Washington D.C., blasted the action as politically motivated overreach, citing the city's current downward crime trend and potential encroachment on local democracy. Rumors of a divorce between Alicia Keys and Swizz Beatz have been floated online—but sources close to the couple insist that the 15-year marriage remains solid and the divorce chatter is internet fiction. Chris Brown teamed up with his daughter Royalty and influencer MD Motivator to surprise a struggling single mother and her daughter—offering them $10,000, a special meet-and-greet at his “Breezy Bowl XX Tour,” and a brand-new car, creating an unforgettable night. Website: https://www.urban1podcasts.com/rickey-smiley-morning-show See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

0:00 - Trump announces "Liberation Day" in DC 9:06 - Trump on DC: It's embarrassing DC is such a disgusting pit 28:05 - Trump threatens to do the same in Chicago 53:41 - Senior writer for the Dispatch, David Drucker, on Trump's DC takeover announcement - "he takes an issue in which he might achieve broad support and he talks about it in a way that ensures that only his supporters are going to like it" Follow David on X @DavidMDrucker 01:09:01 - In-depth History with Frank from Arlington Heights 01:11:33 - Russiagate-Schiff 01:28:15 - Ted Dabrowski, President of Wirepoints, outlines bold steps the Trump administration should take if it turns its attention to Chicago like it has to DC. Get Ted’s latest at wirepoints.org 01:46:01 - Theodore Dalrymple, contributing editor of City Journal & a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, on Luigi Mangione and the Romance of Murder. Theodore is also the author of many books including Buried But Not Quite Dead: Forgotten Writers of Père Lachaise 02:00:19 - SPORTS & POLITICSSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On "The Tara Show," the host discusses the president's federal crime crackdown in Washington, D.C., and his declaration of "Liberation Day." The show highlights the President's plan to start by ending cash bail and addressing what he refers to as the "third worldification" of American cities. He argues that these issues are not simply "soft on crime" but rather a manifestation of classic Marxism, which he claims is a deliberate attempt to undermine the justice system. The host points to D.C. laws, such as those that allow probation for shootings and treat 20-year-olds as juveniles, as evidence of this ideological shift. The episode features an interview clip with Gregory Pemberton, the head of the D.C. Police Union, who expresses his full support for the federal intervention. Pemberton states that D.C.'s crime is "out of control" and that the city council's past policies have "handcuffed police officers," leading to a severe shortage of personnel. The host also connects these domestic issues to international politics, drawing parallels between the D.C. situation and what he describes as the "Venezuela model" of governance, where the ruling party merges with criminal enterprises. The discussion concludes with a look at the president's broader strategy to combat these issues, including his handling of the upcoming Olympics in Los Angeles

In response to a fatal shooting, the President announces a federal takeover of law enforcement in Washington, D.C., and deploys the National Guard, FBI, and ATF. He labels the initiative "Liberation Day," aiming to "take our capital back" from what he describes as "crime, bloodshed, bedlam, and squalor." While the D.C. Mayor and City Council condemn the move as an unwarranted "manufactured intrusion" on local authority, citing a decrease in violent crime, the D.C. police union and other federal law enforcement officials express their full support. The radio show further delves into the political and ideological aspects of the crackdown. Critics of D.C.'s local policies, including a former U.S. Assistant Attorney General and a U.S. Attorney for D.C., argue that the city's crime issues are a deliberate result of what they characterize as a "Marxist" ideology within the Democratic party. They claim these policies intentionally weaken law enforcement and the justice system to benefit specific political interests. The conversation also extends to national economic policy, with a focus on the recent appointment of E.J. Antoni to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and accusations that past economic data was politically manipulated. The speakers also criticize Republican Senate leadership for allegedly obstructing the President's appointments, suggesting it is a form of political hostage-taking.

On "The Tara Show," the host provides a comprehensive look at what he sees as the critical challenges facing the United States, from domestic policy to international relations. The show features an extensive discussion of the president's federal crime crackdown in Washington, D.C., which the host frames as "Liberation Day." He argues that the city's high crime rates are not accidental but a result of deliberate "Marxist" policies that have been covered up through the manipulation of crime statistics by D.C. officials. The host supports this claim with an interview clip from the head of the D.C. Police Union, who expresses support for the federal intervention. The show extends this critique to other Democrat-run cities and international leaders, linking their policies to a broader ideological agenda. The show also explores the theme of political and economic deception, praising the president's appointment of Dr. E.J. Antoni to the Bureau of Labor Statistics as a move to restore integrity to economic data that the host alleges was previously fabricated for political purposes. He also discusses the ongoing trade war with China, attributing the U.S.'s vulnerability to a long-standing dependence on Chinese rare earth minerals. The host praises the administration's efforts to regain energy independence by reviving domestic coal projects. Throughout the show, the host repeatedly criticizes Republican Senate leadership, specifically Senator John Thune, for blocking the president's appointments, which he describes as a political "hostage situation." The episode ultimately frames these issues as a struggle for America's future, where political and economic honesty are pitted against a globalist, "Marxist" agenda.

The House and Senate continue to gavel in just to keep President Trump from making recess appointments. Dr. Phil debates ICE raids with Bill Maher. Trump and Russia's Putin to meet this week in Alaska. International pushback on tariffs. Texas Democrats seem to be losing the PR battle over Texas Democrats. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is more popular than the pope? What the mRNA vaccines are doing inside bodies. Home confinement for a man who violently attacked two elderly men in front of a Planned Parenthood. President Trump vows to clean up Washington, D.C., after a recent crime surge. NASCAR driver breaks collarbone celebrating. Apollo astronaut Jim Lovell passes away. Another successful SpaceX launch today. Here comes 3I/Atlas … everybody panic! OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on kids and AI. First female MLB umpire makes her debut. AOC campaign adviser arrested for terroristic threats against Jewish schoolchildren. JD Vance leads all prospective Democrats for 2028. 00:00 Pat Gray UNLEASHED! 00:22 New Pat Gray BINGO! Card 05:44 Glenn Beck's Inspection of Kris Cruz 06:55 House & Senate Gaveled In 10:59 Nancy Pelosi & Tom Homan Good Morning Meme 13:51 Dr. Phil Calls Out Bill Maher 19:04 Trump will Meet Putin in Alaska 22:05 India Pushing Back? 26:46 Beto is Big Mad 27:46 Beto Wants to Punch First 32:09 Bernie Sanders on Democrats Voting for Trump 33:54 Bernie Sanders 2028? 35:19 Bernie Sanders on Hamas 41:03 RFK Jr. Stops this Program 43:45 RFK Jr. on mRNA Vaccine 46:12 Riley Gaines on Organ Donation 49:11 Sydney Sweeney for Baskin Robbins 54:02 Two Men Assaulted in front of Planned Parenthood 1:03:51 Washington DC is MESSED UP! 1:05:52 Trump on Upcoming Beautification Press Conference 1:07:21 Liberation Day for Washington DC 1:12:06 RIP US Astronaut Jim Lovell 1:17:20 3I/ATLAS Update 1:20:49 Sam Altman on AI Intelligence 1:26:56 Jen Pawol's First Day at Work 1:32:30 JD Vance Holds a Narrow Lead against Democrats Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump announced that he is invoking Section 740 of the DC Home Rule Act to place Washington, DC's Metropolitan Police Department under “direct federal control” and authorizing the Secretary of Defense to deploy National Guard troops in Washington, DC. Crime in D.C. is out of control and everyone, including President Trump, is tired of it!Sponsor:My PillowWww.MyPillow.com/johnSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

-Donald Trump moves to address crime and decay in the capital, criticizing decades of Democrat control over U.S. cities. -On the Newsmax Hotline, guest Tom Borelli discusses gerrymandering, crime in inner cities, and the long-term effects of Democrat policies on education and minority communities. Today's podcast is sponsored by : BIRCH GOLD - Protect and grow your retirement savings with gold. Text ROB to 98 98 98 for your FREE information kit! GREEN CHEF MEAL KITS: Make this summer your healthiest yet with Green Chef. Head to http://greenchef.com/50NEWSMAX and use code 50NEWSMAX to get fifty percent off your first month, then twenty percent off for two months with free shipping. To call in and speak with Rob Carson live on the show, dial 1-800-922-6680 between the hours of 12 Noon and 3:00 pm Eastern Time Monday through Friday…E-mail Rob Carson at : RobCarsonShow@gmail.com Musical parodies provided by Jim Gossett (www.patreon.com/JimGossettComedy) Listen to Newsmax LIVE and see our entire podcast lineup at http://Newsmax.com/Listen Make the switch to NEWSMAX today! Get your 15 day free trial of NEWSMAX+ at http://NewsmaxPlus.com Looking for NEWSMAX caps, tees, mugs & more? Check out the Newsmax merchandise shop at : http://nws.mx/shop Follow NEWSMAX on Social Media:  -Facebook: http://nws.mx/FB  -X/Twitter: http://nws.mx/twitter -Instagram: http://nws.mx/IG -YouTube: https://youtube.com/NewsmaxTV -Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/NewsmaxTV -TRUTH Social: https://truthsocial.com/@NEWSMAX -GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/newsmax -Threads: http://threads.net/@NEWSMAX  -Telegram: http://t.me/newsmax  -BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/newsmax.com -Parler: http://app.parler.com/newsmax Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Liberation Day Declared, Trump Using National Guard in Washington D.C., Federalizing Metro PDLive Show Monday-Thursday, 3pm est.SOCIALS: https://linktr.ee/drewberquist NEWS: https://DrewBerquist.com MERCH: https://RedBeachNation.com#DrewBerquist #ThisIsMyShow #TIMSTop 100 Political News Podcast with https://www.millionpodcasts.com/political-news-podcasts/#1 Counterterrorism Podcast on Feedspot: https://podcast.feedspot.com/counter_terrorism_podcasts/Show Notes/Links:President Trump announces liberation dayhttps://x.com/theblaze/status/1954917082652348548SecDef Hegseth says National Guard will be flowing into DC over next weekhttps://x.com/nicksortor/status/1954922736834511175President Trump calling in National Guard to DC and putting DC Metro under federal controlhttps://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1954916002489327857President Trump: We may take over New York and Chicago toohttps://x.com/disclosetv/status/1954929328707473806Beto Says Democrats have always followed the rules, colored within the lineshttps://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1954539033201373242Kristin Welker calls out JB Pritzker for doing the same thing he is mad at Texas abouthttps://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1954535129487225312Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, whose state has been gerrymandered to give Democrats a 14-3 congressional seat advantageEric Holder says gerrymandering is only okay if Democrats do ithttps://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1954585518143848674See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Our U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist Michelle Weaver discusses what back-to-school spending trends reveal about consumer sentiment and the U.S. economy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Today -- we're going back to school! A look at the second biggest shopping season in the U.S.. And what it can tell us about the broader market.It's Friday, August 8th, at 10am in New York.It's that time of the year again. With parents, caregivers and students making shopping lists for back-to-school supplies. And it's not just limited to school supplies and backpacks. It probably also includes laptops or tablets, smart phones and, of course, the latest clothes. For investors, understanding how consumers are feeling—and spending—right now is critical. Why? Because back-to-school spending tells us a lot about consumer sentiment. And this month's data has been sending some mixed but meaningful signals.Let's start with the mood on Main Street. According to our latest proprietary consumer survey, confidence in the economy is sliding. Just under one-third of consumers think the economy will improve over the next six months—which is down from 37 percent last month and 44 percent in January. And that's a pretty big drop from the start of the year. Meanwhile, half of all consumers expect the economy to get worse.Household finances are also feeling the squeeze. While around 40 percent expect their financial situation to improve, closer to 30 percent expect it to worsen. The net score is still positive, but down from last month and even more so from January.The takeaway? Consumers are feeling the pinch—and inflation remains their number one concern.We did see a bit of a brighter picture though around tariff fears. And tariffs are definitely still a worry, but we're past that point of peak fear. This month, over a third of consumers said they're “very concerned” about tariffs—down from 43 percent in April, post Liberation Day. And fewer people are planning to cut back on spending because of them: that number is just 30 percent now, compared to over 40 percent a few months ago.In fact, almost 30 percent of consumers actually plan to spend more despite tariffs. That's a sign of resilience—and perhaps necessity—as families prepare for the school year.And that brings us back to back-to-school shopping, which is a relative bright spot.Nearly half of U.S. consumers have already shopped or are planning to shop for the school year—right in line with what we saw in previous years. Among those shoppers, 47 percent are spending more than last year, while only 14 percent plan to spend less. That's a significant net positive at 34 percent.What's in the cart? More than 90 percent of shoppers are buying apparel, footwear, and school supplies. Apparel leads, followed by footwear, followed by supplies.If we look beyond the classroom at other things people are spending on, travel is still a priority. Around 60 percent of consumers plan to travel over the next six months, with visiting friends and family as the top reason. That's consistent with where we were a year ago and shows that experiences still matter—even in uncertain times.The big takeaway from all this data: Consumer sentiment is cooling, but spending—especially spending for seasonal needs—is holding up. Back-to-school categories like apparel and footwear are outperforming, making them potential bright spots for retailers.As we head into fall, keep your eyes on U.S. consumers. They're not just shopping for school—they're also signaling where the market could be headed next.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

There's a dichotomy between the pace of job growth and the unemployment rate. Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach analyze how the Fed might address this paradox.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today – a look back at last week's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC, and the path for rates from here.It's Tuesday, August 5th at 10am in New York.Mike, last week the Fed met for the fifth time this year. The committee didn't provide a summary of their economic projections, but they did update their official policy statement. And of course, Chair Powell spoke at the press conference. How would you characterize the tone of both?Michael Gapen: Yeah, at first the statement I thought took on a slightly dovish tone for two reasons. One, unexpected; the other expected. So, the committee did revise down their assessment of growth and economic activity. They had previously described the economy as growing at a quote, ‘solid pace,' and now they said, you know, the incoming data suggests that growth and economic activity moderated.So that's true. That's actually our view as well. We think the data points to that. The second reason the statement looked a little dovish, and this was expected is the Fed received two dissents. So, Governors Bowman and Waller both dissented in favor of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting.But then the press conference started. And I would characterize that as Powell having at least some renewed concerns around persistence of inflation. So, he did recognize or acknowledge that the June inflation data showed a tariff impulse. But I'd say the more hawkish overtones really came in his description of the labor market, which I know were going to get into.And we've been kind of wondering and, you know, asking implicitly – is the Fed ever going to take a stand on what constitutes a healthy and/or weak labor market? And Powell, I think put down a lot of markers in the direction; that said, it's not so much about employment growth, it's about a low unemployment rate. And he kept describing the labor market as solid, and in healthy condition, and at full employment. So, the combination of that suggests it's a higher bar, in our mind, for the Fed to cut in September.Matthew Hornbach: And on the labor market, if we could dig a little bit deeper on that point. It did seem to me certainly that Powell was channeling your views on the labor market.Michael Gapen: Well, I wish I had that power but thank you.Matthew Hornbach: Well. I'd like to now channel your views – and of course his views – to our listeners. Can you just go a little bit deeper into this dichotomy that you've been highlighting between the pace of job growth and the unemployment rate itself?Michael Gapen: Yeah. Our thesis and what we've laid out coming into the year, and we think the data supports, is the idea that immigration controls have really slowed growth in the labor force. And what that means is the break-even rate of employment has come down.So even as economic growth has slowed and demand for labor has slowed, and therefore employment growth has slowed – the unemployment rate has stayed low, and there's some paradox in that. Normally when employment growth weakens, we think the economy's rolling over; the Fed should be easing.But in an environment of a very slow growing labor force, the two can coincide. And there's tension in that, we recognize. But our view is – the more the administration pushes in the direction of restraining immigration, the more likely it is you'll see the combination of low employment growth, but a low unemployment rate. And our view is that still means the labor market is tight.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed, indeed. Just one last question from me. How are you thinking about the Fed's policy path from here? In particular, how are you looking at the remaining data that could get the Fed to cut rates in September?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that there's no magic sauce here, if you will; or secret sauce. Powell, you know, essentially is laying out a case where it's more likely than not inflation will be deviating from the 2 percent target as tariffs get passed through to consumer prices. And the flag that he planted on the labor market suggests maybe they're leaning in the direction of thinking the unemployment rates is likely to stay low.So, we just need more revelations on this front. And the gap between the July and the September FOMC meetings is the longest on the Fed's calendar. So, they will see two inflation reports and two labor market reports. And again, it just to provide context and color, right? What I think Powell was doing was positioning his view against the two dissents that he received. So where, for example, Governor Waller laid out a case where weaker employment growth could justify cuts, Powell was reflecting the view of the rest of the committee that said, ‘Well, it's not really employment growth, it's about that unemployment rate.'So, when these data arrive, we'll be kind of weighing both of those components. What does employment growth look like going forward? How weak is it? And what's happening to that unemployment rate?So, if the Fed's doing its job, this shouldn't be magic. If the labor market's obviously rolling over, you'll get cuts later this year. If not, we think our view will play out and the Fed will be on the sideline through, you know, early 2026 before it moves to rate cuts then.So Matt, what I'd like to do is kind of turn from the economics over to the rates views. How did the rates market respond to the meeting, to the statement, to the press conference? How are you thinking about the market pricing of the policy path into your end?Matthew Hornbach: So initially when the statement was released, as you noted, it had a dovish flavor to it. And so, we had a small repricing in the interest rate market, putting a little bit of a higher probability, on the idea that the Fed would lower rates in September. But then as Chair Powell began the press conference and started to articulate his views around both inflation and the labor market we saw the market take out some probability that the Fed would lower rates in September.And where it ended up at the end of that particular day was putting about a 50 percent probability on a rate cut and as a result of 50 percent probability of no rate cut; leaving the data to really dictate where the pricing of that meeting would go from there.That to me speaks to this data dependence of the Fed, as you've discussed. And I think that in the coming weeks we get more of this data that you talked about, both on the inflation side of the mandate and on the labor market side of the mandate. And ultimately, if they end up, going in September, I would've expected the market to have priced most of that in, ahead of the meeting. And if they end up not cutting rates in September, then naturally the market will have moved in that direction ahead of time.And again, I think what ends up happening in September will be critical for how the market ends up pricing the evolution of policy in November and December. But to me, what I think is more interesting is your view on 2026. And in that regard, the market is still some distance away from your view, that the Fed goes about 175 basis points in 2026.Michael Gapen: Yeah, I mean, we're still thinking the lagged effects of tariffs and immigration will slow the economy enough to get more Fed cuts than the market's thinking. But, you know, we'll see if that happens. And maybe that's a topic we can turn back to in upcoming Thoughts on the Market.But what I'd like to do is ask you this. I've been reading some of your recent work on term premiums. And in my view, had this really interesting analysis about how the market prices Fed policy and how U.S. Treasury yields then adjust and move.You highlighted that Treasury yields built in a term premium after April 2nd. What's happening with that term premium today?Matthew Hornbach: Yeah. The April 2nd Liberation Day event catalyzed an expansion of term premia in the Treasury market. And ultimately what that means is that Treasury yields went up relative to what people were thinking about the path of Fed policy, And of course, the risks that they were thinking about in the month of April were risks related to trade policy. Those risks have diminished somewhat, I would argue in the subsequent months as the administration has been announcing deals with some of our trading partners. And then the market's focus turned to supply and what was going to happen with U.S. Treasury supply. And then, of course, the reaction of investors to that coming supply.And I would say, given what the Treasury announced last week, which was – it had no intention of raising supply, in the next several quarters. In our view is that the U.S. Treasury will not have to raise supply until the early part of 2027. So way off in the distance. So, investors are becoming more comfortable taking on duration risk in their portfolios because some of that uncertainty that opened up after April 2nd has been put away.Michael Gapen: Yeah, I can see how the substantial tariff revenue we're bringing in could affect that story. So, for example, I think if you annualize the run rates on tariffs, you'll get something over $300 billion in a 12-month period. And that certainly will have an impact on Treasury supply.Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. And so, as we make our way through the month of August, we'll get an update to those tariff revenues. And also, towards the end of August, we will have the economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where Chair Powell will give us his updated thoughts on what is the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. And Mike, I look forward to catching up with you after that.Thanks for taking the time to talk today.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Today Nicole sits down with Yossi Levi—aka Car Dealership Guy—for a no-fluff breakdown of what's really happening in the car market and everything you need to know if you're car shopping. They unpack how the new Liberation Day tariffs are impacting prices, what's still negotiable at the dealership, and whether used cars are feeling the heat, too. Plus, Yossi weighs in on viral tax hacks like the G-Wagon deduction and a new write-off in Trump's latest tax proposal that could save you big. And yes, Nicole asks what he drives—because obviously. Follow Car Dealership Guy This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. As part of the IRA Match Program, Public Investing will fund a 1% match of: (a) all eligible IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers made to a Public IRA; and (b) all eligible contributions made to a Public IRA up to the account's annual contribution limit. The matched funds must be kept in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time. See full terms ⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.  *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.

Economic data looks backward while equity markets are looking ahead. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why this delays the Federal Reserve in both cutting and hiking rates – and why this is a feature of monetary policy, not a bug.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why economic data can be counterintuitive for how stocks trade. It's Monday, August 4th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Since the lows in April, the rally in stocks has been relentless with no tradable pullbacks. I have been steadfastly bullish since early May primarily due to the V-shaped recovery in earnings revisions breadth that began in mid-April. The rebound in earnings revisions has been a function of the positive reflexivity from max bearishness on tariffs, the AI capex cycle bottoming, and the weaker U.S. dollar. Now, cash tax savings from the One Big Beautiful Bill are an additional benefit to cash flow which should drive higher capital spending and M&A. As usual, stocks have traded ahead of the positive sentiment and the lagging economic data – which leads me to the main point for today. Weak labor data last week may worry some investors in the short term. But ultimately we see that as just another positive catalyst for stocks. Further deterioration would simply get the Fed to start cutting rates sooner and more aggressively.The bond market seems to agree and is now pricing a 90 percent chance of a Fed cut in September, and the 2-year Treasury yield is 80 basis points below the fed[eral] funds rate. This spread is not nearly as severe as last summer when it reached 200 basis points. However, it will widen further if next month's labor data is disappointing again. While weaker economic data could lead to further weakness in equities, the labor data is arguably the most backward-looking data series we follow. It's also why the Fed tends to be late with rate cuts. Meanwhile, inflation metrics are arguably the second most backward looking data, which explains why the Fed also tends to be late in terms of hiking rates. In my view, it's a feature of monetary policy, not a bug. Finally, in my opinion, the bond market's influence is more important than President Trump's public calls for Powell to cut rates. The equity market understands this dynamic, too—which is why it also gets ahead of the Fed at various stages of the cycle. We noted in our Mid-Year Outlook that April was a very durable low for equities that effectively priced a mild recession. To fully appreciate this view, one must acknowledge that equities were correcting for the 12 months leading up to April with the average stock down close to 30 percent at the lows. More importantly, it also coincided with a major trough in earnings revisions breadth. In short, Liberation Day marked the end of a significant bear market that began a year earlier. Remember, equity markets bottom on bad news and Liberation Day was the last piece of a long string of bad news that formed the bottom for earnings revisions breadth that we have been laser focused on. To bring it home, economic data is backward looking, earnings revisions and equity markets are forward looking. April was a major low for stocks that discounted the weak economic data we are seeing now. It was also the trough of the rolling recession that we have been in for the past three years and marked the beginning of a rolling recovery and a new bull market. For those who remain skeptical, it's important to recognize that the unemployment typically rises for 12 months after the equity market bottoms in a recession. Once the growth risk is priced, it's ultimately a tailwind for margins and stocks, as positive operating leverage arrives and the Fed cuts significantly. Based on this morning's rebound in stocks, it looks like the equity markets agree. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

It's Liberation Day…again. After two missed deadlines and only a few trade deals done, Trump's global tariffs officially go into effect today. To mark the occasion, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro says the president not only deserves a Nobel Peace Prize—but also a Nobel Prize in economics. Meanwhile, Trump can't stop talking about Jeffrey Epstein, telling reporters on Air Force One that Virginia Giuffre was "stolen" by Jeffrey Epstein from the Mar-a-Largo spa. Trump pressures Senate Republicans to kill a ban on congressional (and presidential) stock trading. Jon and Dan discuss the latest, including Democrats' shifting views on Gaza, Kamala Harris's decision not to run for California governor, and Texas Republicans' attempts to steal the 2026 midterm elections by redrawing their congressional map. Then, Congressman Jason Crow joins Tommy in the studio to talk about recruiting Democrats to run for office, and why he's suing ICE after being denied entry to a detention facility in his district.  

While investors may now better understand President Trump's trade strategy, the economic consequences of tariffs remain unclear. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen offer guidance on the data they are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today ongoing effects of tariffs on the U.S. economy. It is Friday, August 1st at 8am in New York. So, Michael, lots of news over the past couple of weeks about the U.S. making trade agreements with other countries. It's certainly dominated client conversations we've had, as I'm assuming it's probably dominated conversations for you as well. Michael Gapen: Yeah certainly a topic that never goes away. It keeps on giving at this point in time. And I guess, Michael, what I would ask you is, what do you make of the recent deals? Does it reduce uncertainty in your mind? Does it leave uncertainty elevated? What's your short-term outlook for trade policy? Michael Zezas: Yeah, I think it's fair to say that we've reduced the range of potential outcomes in the near term around tariff rates. But we haven't done anything to reduce longer term uncertainties in U.S. trade policy. So, consider, for example, over the last couple of weeks, we have an agreement with Japan and an agreement with Europe – two pretty substantial trading partners – where it appears, the tariff rate that's going to be applied is something like 15 percent. And when you stack up these deals on one another, it looks like we're going to end up in an average effective tariff rate from the U.S. range of kind of 15 to 20 percent. And if you think back a couple of months, that range was much wider and we were potentially talking about levels in the 25 to 30 percent range. So, in that sense, investors might have a bit of a respite from the idea of kind of massive uncertainty around trade policy outcomes. However, longer term, these agreements really just are kind of principles that are set out for behavior, and there's lots of trip wires that could create future potential escalations. So, for example, with the Europe deal, part of the deal is that Europe will commit to purchase a substantial amount of U.S. energy. There's obvious questions as to whether or not the U.S. can actually supply that amidst its own energy needs that are rising substantially over the course of the next year. So, could we end up in a situation where six months to a year from now if those purchases haven't been made – the U.S. sort of presses forward and the administration threatens to re-escalate tariffs again. Really hard to know, but the point is these arrangements have lots of contingencies and other factors that could lead to re-escalation. But it's fair to say, at least in the near term, that we're in a landing place that appears to be somewhat smaller in terms of the range of potential outcomes. Now, I think a question for investors is going to be – how do we assess what the effects of that have been, right? Because is it fair to say that the economic data that we've received so far maybe isn't fully telling the story of the effects that are being felt quite yet. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's completely right. We've always had the view that it would take several months or more just for tariffs to show up in inflation. And if tariffs primarily act as a tax on the consumer, you have to apply that tax first before economic activity would moderate. So, we've long been forecasting that inflation would begin to pick up in June. We saw a little of that. But it would accelerate through the third quarter, kind of peaking around the August-September period. So, I'd say we've seen the first signs of that, Michael, but we need obviously follow through evidence that it's happening. So, we do expect that in the July, August and September inflation reports, you'll see a lot more evidence of tariffs pushing goods prices higher. So, we'll be dissecting all the details of the CPI looking for evidence of direct effects of tariffs, primarily on goods prices, but also some services prices. So, I'd put that down as the first marker, and we've seen some, early evidence on that. The second then, obviously, is the economy's 70 percent consumption. Tariffs act as a regressive tax on low- and middle-income consumers because non-discretionary purchases are a larger portion of their consumption bundle and a lot of goods prices are as well. Upper income households tend to spend relatively more money on leisure and recreation services. So, we would then expect growth in private consumption, primarily led by lower and middle-income spending softening. We think the consumer would slow down. But into the end of the year. Those are the two main markers that I would point to. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, I think this is really important because there's certainly this narrative amongst clients that we talk to that markets may have already moved on from this. Or investors may have already priced in the effects – or lack thereof – of some of this tariff escalation. Now we're about to get some real evidence from economic data as to whether or not that view and those assumptions are credible. Michael Gapen: That's right. Where we were initially on April 2nd after Liberation Day was largely embargo level tariffs. And if those stayed in place, trade volumes and activity and financial market asset values would've collapsed precipitously. And they were for a few weeks, as you know, but then we dialed it back and got out of that. So, yeah, we would say it's wrong to conclude that the economy , has absorbed these tariffs already and that they won't have,, a negative effect on economic activity. We think they will just in the base case where tariffs are high, but not too high, it just takes a while for that to happen. Michael Zezas: And of course, all of that's kind of core to our multi-asset outlook right now where a slowing economy, even with higher recession probabilities can still support risk assets. But of course, that piece of it is going to be very complicated if the economic data ends up being worse than you suspect. Now, any evidence you've seen so far? For example, we had a GDP report earlier this week. Any evidence from that data as to where things might go over the next few months?Michael Gapen: Yeah, well, another data point on trade policy and trade policy uncertainty really causing a lot of volatility in trade flows. So, if you recall, there's big front running of tariffs in the first quarter. Imports were up about 37 percent on the quarter; that ended in the second quarter, imports were down 30 percent. So net trade was a big drag on growth in the first quarter. It was a big boost to growth in the second. But we think that's largely noise. So, what I would say is we've probably level set import and export volumes now. So, do trade volumes from here begin to slow? That's an unresolved question. But certainly, the large volatility in the trade and inventory data in Q1 and Q2 GDP numbers are reflective of everything that you're saying about the risks around trade policy and elevated trade policy uncertainty. Second, though, I would say, because we started out the quarter with Liberation Day tariffs, the business sector, clearly – in our mind anyway – clearly responded by delaying activity. Equipment spending was only up 4 to 5 percent on the quarter. IP was up about 6 percent. Structures was down 10 percent. So, for all the narrative around AI-related spending, there wasn't a whole lot of spending on data centers and power generation in the second quarter.So, what you speak to about the need to reduce some trade policy uncertainty, but also your long run trade policy uncertainty remains elevated? I would say we saw evidence in the second quarter that all of that slowed down capital spending activity. Let's see if the One Big Beautiful Bill act can be a catalyst on that front, whether animal spirits can come back. But that's the other thing I would point to is that, business spending was weak and even though the headline GDP number was 3 percent, that's mainly a trade volatility number. Final sales to domestic purchasers, which includes consumption and business spending, was only up 1.1 percent in the quarter. So, the economy's moderating; things are cooling. I think trade policy and trade policy uncertainty is a big part of that story.Michael Zezas: Got it. So maybe this is something of a handoff here where my team had been really, really focused and investors have been really, really focused on the decision-making process of the U.S. administration around tariffs. And now your team's going to lead us through understanding the actual impacts. And the headline numbers around economic data are important, but probably even more important is the underlying. Is that fair? Michael Gapen: I think that's fair. I think as we move into the third quarter, like between now and when the Fed meets in, September, again, they'll have a few more inflation reports, a few more employment reports. We're going to learn a lot more than about what the Fed might do. So, I think the activity data and the Fed will now become much more important over the next several months than where we've been the past several months, which is about, has been about announcements around trade. Michael Zezas: All right. Well then, we look forward to hearing more from you and your team in the coming months. Well Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk to me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.