Public holiday of various countries to commemorate liberation from another country
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As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins? It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York. Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through. On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can. Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting. Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation. How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic. So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting. Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right? So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
The Trump hokey cokey is back. Tariffs on, tariffs reduced - now they're heading back up again. It really got going on April 2nd- President Trump's so-called “Liberation Day” - when he announced a swathe of punitive tariffs on trading partners across the world. The markets tanked and then there was a pause. Countries had 90 days to strike a trade deal - 90 deals in 90 days - we were told. But there weren't. There were only 2. The deadline was this week but now it's next month. But in the past few days the White House has been sending out a flurry of letters with higher tariffs for those without a deal - which is almost everyone. David Aaronovitch asks his guests just what is going on, what's happening to world trade and what happens next? Guests: Soumaya Keynes, Economics Columnist The Financial Times Meredith Crowley, Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economics and Public Professor of Economics and Public Policy, University of Michigan Philip Coggan, author, The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump: What the Trade War Means for the World Presenter: David Aaronovitch Producers: Caroline Bayley, Sally Abrahams, Kirsteen Knight Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound engineer: Neil Churchill and David Crackles Editor: Richard Vadon
【欢迎订阅】 每天早上5:30，准时更新。 【阅读原文】 标题：How America's economy is dodging disaster It is astonishingly dynamic, even under the weight of tariffs 正文： Economic doom beckoned after President T announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2nd. Stocks crashed; forecasters predicted a recession within the year. Three months on, the mood is rather more relaxed. Prices in shops are not noticeably higher, unemployment is flat and the S&P 500 index is resurgent, back at all-time highs. Mr T's 90-day pause for many of his tariffs, announced a week after Liberation Day to calm markets, will end on July 9th. Although he has threatened to send letters declaring talks over and tariffs back on, nobody seems too worried. 知识点：beckon /ˈbekən/，v. to make a gesture to someone, usually with the hand or head, to encourage them to come closer; (of something unpleasant) to seem likely to happen.（招手示意；召唤；（不快之事）似乎将要发生） • She beckoned him over to where she was sitting.她招手让他到自己坐的地方来。 • Economic doom beckoned after the president announced his liberation day.总统宣布解放日后，经济厄运似乎将要降临。 获取外刊的完整原文以及精讲笔记，请关注微信公众号「早安英文」，回复“外刊”即可。更多有意思的英语干货等着你！ 【节目介绍】 《早安英文-每日外刊精读》，带你精读最新外刊，了解国际最热事件：分析语法结构，拆解长难句，最接地气的翻译，还有重点词汇讲解。 所有选题均来自于《经济学人》《纽约时报》《华尔街日报》《华盛顿邮报》《大西洋月刊》《科学杂志》《国家地理》等国际一线外刊。 【适合谁听】 1、关注时事热点新闻，想要学习最新最潮流英文表达的英文学习者 2、任何想通过地道英文提高听、说、读、写能力的英文学习者 3、想快速掌握表达，有出国学习和旅游计划的英语爱好者 4、参加各类英语考试的应试者（如大学英语四六级、托福雅思、考研等） 【你将获得】 1、超过1000篇外刊精读课程，拓展丰富语言表达和文化背景 2、逐词、逐句精确讲解，系统掌握英语词汇、听力、阅读和语法 3、每期内附学习笔记，包含全文注释、长难句解析、疑难语法点等，帮助扫除阅读障碍。
Ryan Petersen is the CEO of Flexport. Petersen joins Big Technology to discuss how the latest round of tariffs and trade-war maneuvers are rewiring supply chains worldwide. Tune in to hear him unpack everything from 145 % “Liberation Day” duties and $5 K containers to the death of the de minimis loophole and what it means for Amazon, Temu, and Shein. We also cover the Panama Canal drought, AI that robocalls 400 K truckers, warehouse-robot reality checks, and why customs fraud just became the DOJ's No. 2 white-collar priority. Hit play for a rapid-fire scorecard on what's changing, who's winning, and what's next in global trade. --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack + Discord? Here's 25% off for the first year: https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b Questions? Feedback? Write to: bigtechnologypodcast@gmail.com
When President Trump paused most of his “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days last spring, the administration had hoped to cut dozens of trade deals. As trade advisor Peter Navarro put it, there could be "90 deals in 90 days." But as Trump's deal deadline approached, it became clear that the administration's deal-making push has hit some snags, resulting in only a handful of agreements with the UK, China, and Vietnam. This week, Trump extended his deadline to August 1st and sent public letters to many U.S. trading partners. WSJ's Gavin Bade explains the sticking points that have gotten in the way of “90 deals in 90 days.” Annie Minoff hosts. Further Listening: - Trump's Plan B After Trade Court Setback - Inside the Surprise U.S.-China Trade Deal - Taking Stock of the 'Sell America' Trade Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
CEO and President of Atlantic Council Fred Kempe discusses how the Trump administration's renewed push for trade deals with foreign partners are being factored into the markets–or not. Meta has lured another AI executive to its team with a multi-million dollar compensation package–this time, it's Ruoming Pang from Apple. Wired Senior Writer Lauren Goode discusses the ongoing tech battle for top AI talent. Plus, the TSA may be changing shoe requirements at the airport, Elon Musk is releasing a new version of his AI bot Grok, and Courtney Reagan reports on the best deals for Prime Day shoppers. In this episode:Lauren Goode, @LaurenGoodeFred Kempe, @FredKempeCourtney Reagan, @CourtReaganMegan Cassella, @mmcassellaJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawkMelissa Lee, @MelissaLeeCNBCKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Megan Cassella - 03:18Courtney Reagan - 16:57Fred Kempe - 23:15Lauren Goode - 35:42
Phil Blancato thinks large caps are priced to perfection, but there are still opportunities in small caps. He says the latter will “rip higher” if the Fed cuts rates in September. He was “never bought into the rhetoric” of Liberation Day tariffs, arguing that Trump would never deliberately hurt the U.S. economy like that. He likes Amazon (AMZN), citing diversified revenue and a competitive retail arm. He's also bullish on Costco (COST), calling it an “anchor” stock that one can “set and forget.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-...Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-...Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/19192...Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplu...Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-net...Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The Fed is way behind with rate cuts, Trump is showing the world that the Fed is political and he is moving the country away from wealth confiscation. Trump is now issuing letters to many countries, the [CB] is in panic, their system is coming to an end. The [DS] is fighting back with everything they have. The will fight to keep the illegals in the country because if they lose the illegals they lose the ability to cheat in the elections and use the illegals to cause riots. FBI released a memo which reveals that Epstein killed himself and there is no client list or videos. Think about why the memo was released, why was there no date or other marking that are normally on a press release or memo. Did the FBI just expose a leaker? Did the FBI go along with it. Does POTUS telegraph his moves? Would you reveal the evidence now? Justice is coming. Economy White House Trade and Manufacturing Economy Advisor Peter Navarro Discusses the Misalignment With Fed Chair Powell White House Trade and Manufacturing Advisor Peter Navarro talks about how the Fed monetary position is lagging with the intent of Trump's MAGAnomic policy. In the short review, Chairman Jerome Powell is approximately 0.50% in rate cuts behind the growth plan of President Trump. Trump tariffs are the reverse of decades of ‘exfiltration' of American wealth. Just as there was a shift when the value of the Wall Street economy surpassed the value of the U.S. Main Street economy, Source: theconservativetreehouse.com Trump's tariff policy prioritizes AI, ‘big things': ‘We're not looking to make t-shirts and sneakers' President Donald Trump said that his tariffs strategy, aimed at boosting U.S. industry by taxing foreign products or forcing other nations to lower their trade barriers, is not intended to bring low-skill work such as garment manufacturing to America. “We're not looking to make sneakers and T-shirts. We want to make military equipment. We want to make big things. We want to make, do the AI thing,” Trump said. Source: worldtribune.com Trump Announces Tariffs For South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, Kazakstan The letters closely follow those sent out earlier in the day to Japan and South Korea, whose products will be hit by a 25 percent tariff rate beginning August 1. Trump told Myanmar and Laos that they will face 40 percent tariffs on their exports, slightly lower than the rates announced at the Trump administration's April 2nd Liberation Day event. In April, Trump said Myanmar would face a 44 percent tariff and Laos a 48 percent tariff. South Africa will face 30 percent tariffs, the same rate announced on Liberation Day. Kazakhstan and Malaysia will both face 25 percent rates, Trump said. Kazakhstan was looking at a 27 percent tariff on Liberation Day and Malaysia was set to be hit with a 24 percent tariff. The administration appears to be fixing tariff rates in five percentage point steps, rounding up or down from the Liberation Day tariffs. (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Political/Rights Schumer demands investigation of Trump Weather Service vacancies in wake of Texas flooding
That's what Gene Marks thinks. In this week's conversation, Gene lists the tax changes in President Trump's big beautiful bill that he's happiest about, while emphasizing that what he's really happiest about is the tax certainty that passage of the bill creates for business owners. Gene also explains why he thinks owners who complain about Trump's tariffs have no one to blame but themselves and why he's not all that concerned about the uncertainty the tariffs are generating, including what will happen this week when Trump's Liberation Day pause expires.
US equity futures are lower with S&P pointing down. Bonds mixed. US 10-year yields holding at 4.3%, and 2-year down to 3.9%. Asian markets are trading mostly lower, European equity markets narrowly mixed. Dollar firmer. Oil down after OPEC+ producers announced agreement to boost crude output by larger-than-expected 548Kbpd in August. Gold lower. Industrial metals weaker. Tariff deadline nears as US warns it will begin imposing "take it or leave it" trade terms. Treasury Secretary Bessent warned tariffs to revert to Liberation Day/steeper levels though also signaled some leeway by adding that new tariffs to take effect on 1-Aug. Still there's some uncertainty whether Asian countries can secure trade agreements with US by the deadline. Companies Mentioned: Capgemini, WNS Holdings, META Platforms, NFDG, ByteDance
Wednesday is the day when US President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs are set to come into effect. There's still some uncertainty about what will happen, says Chief Investment Strategist of Investec Wealth & Investment International Chris Holdsworth and even a further postponement of the tariffs is a possibility. Investec Focus Radio SA
The first half of 2025 was full of economic surprises and volatility. With recent record highs in US markets, this Independence Day we're looking at if the fireworks can continue for Wall Street. FOX Business correspondent Gerri Willis speaks with Annex Wealth Management's chief economist Brian Jacobsen about how we got here from Liberation Day and shares which stocks & sectors are trending hot in 2025. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The first half of 2025 was full of economic surprises and volatility. With recent record highs in US markets, this Independence Day we're looking at if the fireworks can continue for Wall Street. FOX Business correspondent Gerri Willis speaks with Annex Wealth Management's chief economist Brian Jacobsen about how we got here from Liberation Day and shares which stocks & sectors are trending hot in 2025. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
So yeah, you think back to where we were as a country a year ago today with a dementia riddled president, open borders, rampant crime, high inflation, raging wars and a Trump conviction and Independence Day weekend is just about here but this year I feel liberated too.
In this episode, Fisher Investments' founder Ken Fisher answers a fresh batch of listeners questions. Ken discusses the post-“Liberation Day” market drop and whether investors should expect more tariff-related volatility. He also addresses sequence of return risk, before taking a closer look at the relationship between rising interest rates and the dollar. These insights and much more in this episode of the Market Insights podcast. Episode recorded on 6/18/2025 Visit our episode page, where you'll find links to more information and resources to help you become a more informed investor. And if you have questions about capital markets, investing or personal finance, email us at marketinsights@fi.com. We may use them in an upcoming episode.
Our analysts Michael Zezas and Ariana Salvatore discuss the upcoming expiration of reciprocal tariffs and the potential impacts for U.S. trade.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, US Public Policy Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we're talking about the outlook for US trade policy. It's Wednesday, July 2nd at 10:00 AM in New York.We have a big week ahead as next Wednesday marks the expiration of the 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Ariana, what's the setup?Ariana Salvatore: So this is a really key inflection point. That pause that you mentioned was initiated back on April 9th, and unless it's extended, we could see a reposition of tariffs on several of our major trading partners. Our base case is that the administration, broadly speaking, tries to kick the can down the road, meaning that it extends the pause for most countries, though the reality might be closer to a few countries seeing their rates go up while others announce bilateral framework deals between now and next week.But before we get into the key assumptions underlying our base case. Let's talk about the bigger picture. Michael, what do we think the administration is actually trying to accomplish here?Michael Zezas: So when it comes to defining their objectives, we think multiple things can be true at the same time. So the administration's talked about the virtue of tariffs as a negotiating tactic. They've also floated the idea of a tiered framework for global trading partners. Think of it as a ranking system based on trade deficits, non tariff barriers, VAT levels, and any other characteristics that they think are important for the bilateral trade relationship. A lot of this is similar to the rhetoric we saw ahead of the April 2nd "Liberation Day" tariffs.Ariana Salvatore: Right, and around that time we started hearing about the potential, at least for bilateral trade deals, but have we seen any real progress in that area?Michael Zezas: Not much, at least not publicly, aside from the UK framework agreement. And here's an important detail, three of our four largest trading partners aren't even scoped for higher rates next week. Mexico and Canada were never subject to the reciprocal tariffs. And China's on a separate track with this Geneva framework that doesn't expire until August 12th. So we're not expecting a sweeping overhaul by Wednesday.Ariana Salvatore: Got it. So what are the scenarios that we're watching?Michael Zezas: So there's roughly three that we're looking at and let me break them down here.So our base case is that the administration extends the current pause, citing progress in bilateral talks, and maybe there's a few exceptions along the way in either direction, some higher and some lower. This broadly resets the countdown clock, but keeps the current tariff structure intact: 10% baseline for most trading partners, though some potentially higher if negotiations don't progress in the next week. That outcome would be most in line, we think, with the current messaging coming out of the administration.There's also a more aggressive path if there's no visible progress. For example, the administration could reimpose tariffs with staggered implementation dates. The EU might face a tougher stance due to the complexity of that relationship and Vietnam could see delayed threats as a negotiating tactic. A strong macro backdrop, resilient data for markets that could all give the administration cover to go this route.But there's also a more constructive outcome. The administration can announce regional or bilateral frameworks, not necessarily full trade deals, but enough to remove the near term threat of higher tariffs, reducing uncertainty, though maybe not to pre-2024 levels.Ariana Salvatore: So wide bands of uncertainty, and it sounds like the more constructive outcome is quite similar to our base case, which is what we have in place right now. But translating that more aggressive path into what that means for the economy, we think it would reinforce our house view that the risks here are skewed to the downside.Our economists estimate that tariffs begin to impact inflation about four months after implementation with the growth effects lagging by about eight months. That sets us up for weak but not quite recessionary growth. We're talking 1% GDP on an annual basis in 2025 and 2026, and the tariff passed through to prices and inflation data probably starting in August.Michael Zezas: So bottom line, watch carefully on Wednesday and be vigilant for changes to the status quo on tariff levels. There's a lot of optionality in how this plays out, as trade policy uncertainty in the aggregate is still high. Ariana, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Michael.Michael Zezas: And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Markets staged a stunning rebound in the first half of 2025 - after a brutal start that saw the S&P 500 plunge into bear market territory. Anthony and Piers rewind the chaos: Trump's tariff shock on “Liberation Day,” the inflation scare that followed, and how a market left for dead came roaring back to record highs.They unpack the Fed's evolving rate path, the quiet rise of a “shadow chair” ahead of Powell's potential exit, and why Nvidia's earnings may have rescued the AI hype cycle. Plus, Netflix and Uber emerge as surprise stars of H1, while Italy's bond market revival puts it on the economic leader board.From VIX lows to fiscal turnarounds, this episode cuts through the noise and spotlights what really mattered and what's coming next.(00:00) Intro & Themes in Focus(02:18) Market Overview: A Roller Coaster Year(08:43) What to Watch Going Forward(13:20) Trumps Escalate to Negotiate Strategy(14:48) AI Stocks Remain a Key Driver(16:49) VIX: The Fear Gauge(19:56) Sector Performance and Key Players(23:39) Banks Strong Performance in 1H25(25:50) Netflix Successful Turnaround(31:13) Uber's Turnaround and Future Prospects(36:07) Italy's Economic Recovery and Political Stability
Chuck Todd begins by reacting to the senate passing Trump's signature piece of legislation: “The Big Beautiful Bill.” He reviews the excuses and rationales given by the senators who had expressed issues with the bill but still voted for it, and explains why the fear of Donald Trump's wrath is enough to get lawmakers to fall in line and explains why the bill's passage is emblematic of the broken state of Congress.Then, Chuck is joined by political scientist and Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer to dissect the most pressing geopolitical challenges facing the world today. The discussion begins with analysis of recent Iranian strikes and the Middle East conflict, exploring whether Iran has been exposed as a "paper tiger" and examining the complex dynamics between Trump, Netanyahu, and regional powers like Saudi Arabia. Bremmer offers insights into Iran's domestic vulnerabilities—noting the regime's mere 20% public support—while assessing the likelihood of nuclear developments and potential exit strategies from current conflicts.The conversation expands to cover Trump's relationship with NATO allies, the slowly deteriorating situation in Ukraine, and Putin's potential next moves, including the concerning possibility of nuclear escalation if his regime faces existential threats. Bremmer and Todd also tackle the rise of populist movements globally, the erosion of democratic guardrails in America, and the fundamental shift toward reactionary politics that may define a generation. Throughout, Bremmer provides his characteristic blend of realpolitik analysis and concern for democratic institutions, culminating in a sobering assessment of how America's political system now rewards winners over leaders and creates conditions where "socialists can't beat capitalists, but they can beat kleptocrats."Finally, he answers listeners' questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment regarding the potential for erosion of Trump's support, election denialism and a fun alternate history theory where legendary Bears coach Mike Ditka beat Barack Obama for state office in Illinois.Timeline:(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)00:00 Introduction00:15 90 days from Liberation Day and “90 deals in 90 days”, there are two deals01:30 Trump will back off on tariffs again to avoid economic damage02:30 The Big Beautiful Bill passes the Senate04:15 Josh Hawley votes for bill despite promises not to cut health care06:00 Lisa Murkowski cites tax break expiration for her yes vote08:15 Murkowski has always been Alaska first over America first09:30 Republicans fall in line out of fear of Trump11:00 Congress is broken 13:00 Bipartisanship is dead in the 21st century14:30 Both parties have weaponized partisanship16:15 How do we fix the broken congress?17:30 The public needs to understand WHY congress is broken19:00 Independents could force congress to function better21:00 Bill was rushed due to Trump's impatience22:30 We're in the kleptocracy stage, headed toward authoritarianism24:00 Dysfunction in congress has created a more powerful presidency26:00 Ian Bremmer joins the Chuck ToddCast! 28:00 Media cycle has already moved on from the Iran strike 29:15 The strike wasn't meant to be a war 30:15 Steve Bannon's theory that we're on the brink of WW3 31:45 Trump wanted a negotiated settlement with Iran 33:00 Netanyahu was always going to force the US's hand 34:30 Trump is capable of telling Bibi "no" 36:15 Would Trump support a two state solution? 38:30 Iran has no friends on the global stage willing to support them 40:15 After investigators access Gaza, Israel will lose support 41:45 Saudis will demand a two state solution 43:15 Did we expose Iran as a "paper tiger"? 45:30 The Iranian regime only has 20% support from the public 46:30 Iran's strong enough to put down an uprising 47:30 The U.S. won't put boots on the ground in Iran 49:00 What is Iran's exit strategy from this conflict? 52:00 Iran is likely 3 years away from a bomb 53:15 Iran may be a theocracy, but doesn't act irrationally 54:45 The state of Iraq's leadership? 56:15 Is there global investment in Iraq? 57:15 Status of Trump + NATO? 59:30 Europe underinvested in defense for decades 1:01:15 Pushing Europe to spend more on defense is one of Trump's best achievements 1:02:00 Status of Russia/Ukraine war? 1:03:00 Ukraine is losing slowly 1:04:15 Chances Putin would attack one of the Baltic states? 1:06:15 Putin could use a nuke if he felt his regime was at risk 1:08:15 The rise of left wing populism 1:10:00 American elections will be free and fair, but public won't think so 1:12:00 Guardrails on the executive branch have been weakened 1:13:15 Are we stuck with reactionary politics for a generation? 1:14:45 Trump didn't attend funeral for assassinated Minnesota lawmakers 1:15:45 The U.S. doesn't create leaders, it creates winners 1:18:30 The lack of bipartisanship creates bad legislation 1:19:45 The Big Beautiful Bill will create more Mamdanis 1:20:45 Socialists can't beat capitalists, but they can beat kleptocrats1:23:30 Thoughts on conversation with Ian Bremmer 1:24:00 Mamdani beat Cuomo by double digits in final tally 1:25:30 There will be a fight for the soul of the Democratic party 1:26:15 Ask Chuck 1:26:30 Could Trump's support erode like Marion Barry's? 1:30:30 Election denialism now coming from both sides regularly? 1:36:30 How different would things look if Mike Ditka had beat Obama in Illinois?
PREVIEW TRADE: Colleague Alan Tonelson remarks at the incorrect predictions and unneeded gloom that Liberation Day. More. 1918
Who's been selling their Southern Copper shares? Find out on this week's PlayingFTSE Show!It's the end of Q2, so it's time to check back in on portfolios. That means Steve D, Steve W, the Britbox, and the Eurobox, but who's been outperforming what?Steve D was having a quiet time of things in Q2. But then that all changed later on in the piece. With over £2,000 in cash, is Thermo Fisher Scientific on the buy list? Or are there better opportunities to add to his existing investments?Steve W's Q2 got off to a roaring start on the buying front as Liberation Day crashed the stock market. But most of his buying has been in one particular FTSE 100 stock. It's been a FTSE 250 name, though, that has been keeping his portfolio afloat for the last six months. And with share prices recovering, he's got an eye on a sell…The Britbox has had a mixed few months. And there have been a few high-profile fallers that have been putting pressure on the overall portfolio.The big question is what to do about it, which gives the Steves a question. With a lot of ideas about stocks to buy, what should they sell to make way?The Eurobox has made a roaring start to life. Strong performances from Dino Polska and Euronext have caused the overall portfolio to climb.Steve W has a few names in mind for potential additions. But a handful of Swedish conglomerates are out of the question for an unusual reason…Only on this week's PlayingFTSE Podcast!► Get a free share!This show is sponsored by Trading 212! To get free fractional shares worth up to 100 EUR / GBP, you can open an account with Trading 212 through this link https://www.trading212.com/Jdsfj/FTSE. Terms apply.When investing, your capital is at risk and you may get back less than invested.Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.► Get 15% OFF Fiscal.ai:Huge thanks to our sponsor, Fiscal.ai, the best investing toolkit we've discovered! Get 15% off your subscription with code below and unlock powerful tools to analyze stocks, discover hidden gems, and build income streams. Check them out at Fiscal.ai!https://fiscal.ai/?via=steve► Follow Us On Substack:https://playingftse.substack.com/► Support the show:Appreciate the show and want to offer your support? You could always buy us a coffee at: https://ko-fi.com/playingftse(All proceeds reinvested into the show and not to coffee!)There are many ways to help support the show, liking, commenting and sharing our episodes with friends! You can also check out our clothing merch store: https://playingftse.teemill.com/We get a small cut of anything you buy which will be reinvested back into the show...► Timestamps:0:00 INTRO & OUR WEEKS4:27 STEVE D'S PORTFOLIO23:29 STEVE W PORTFOLIO40:27 BRITBOX UPDATE52:52 EUROBOX UPDATE► Show Notes:What's been going on in the financial world and why should anyone care? Find out as we dive into the latest news and try to figure out what any of it means. We talk about stocks, markets, politics, and loads of other things in a way that's accessible, light-hearted and (we hope) entertaining. For the people who know nothing, by the people who know even less. Enjoy► Wanna get in contact?Got a question for us? Drop it in the comments below or reach out to us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/playingftseshow Or on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/playing_ftse/► Enquiries: Please email - playingftsepodcast@gmail(dot)com► Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
President Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”On a self-declared ‘Liberation Day,' the US unleashed a wave of new blanket tariffs on nations across the globe. Stock markets plunged worldwide, the administration hit the brakes, and announced a 90-day pause on their new global trade plan.But the 90-day countdown is almost over and there's no sign of a new favourite word from the White House yet.Our expert host, Robin Lycka, is joined by Tom Cardamone, President & CEO, Global Financial Integrity to ask: What is the impact of tariffs on financial crime? The pair discuss: the immediate impact of tariffs, the long-term effects of dark money movement, and why trade wars matter in the real world!Producer: Matthew Dunne-MilesEditor: Dominic DelargyEngineer: Nicholas ThonSubscribe to our newsletter, Fresh Laundry, here.Be part of our summer podcast series, The Soapbox, here.Producer: Matthew Dunne-MilesEditor: Dominic DelargyEngineer: Nicholas Thon____________________________________The Laundry podcast explores the complex world of financial crime, anti-money laundering (AML), compliance, sanctions, and global financial regulation.Hosted by Marit Rødevand, Fredrik Riiser, and Robin Lycka, each episode features in-depth conversations with leading experts from banking, fintech, regulatory bodies, and investigative journalism.Tune in as we dissect headline news, unpack regulatory trends, and examine the real-world consequences of non-compliance — all through a uniquely compliance-focused lens.The Laundry is proudly produced by Strise.Get in touch at: laundry@strise.ai Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Of all the people I've interviewed since launching this Thoughtful Money channel, today's guest's portfolio management track record has been spookily accurate.The last time I interviewed, which was back in mid-March, he had drastically reduced his long positions and declared himself "ragingly bearish".And in the weeks that followed, the S&P plunged nearly 700 points to the post-Liberation Day lows.So, how is he feeling about the markets now?To find out, we'll ask the man himself.We're very fortunate to welcome back to the program Darius Dale, CEO of 42 Macro—a top Wall Street leading macro forecasting and market timing service.Darius thinks that current economic growth estimates are far too low and that, as a result, stocks will be forced to reprice higher as an 'explosive' bull market is born.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#bullmarket #stocks #investing _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Kelvin Pang explain why international issuers may be interested in so-called ‘dim sum' bonds, despite Asia's growth drag.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Kelvin Pang: And I'm Kelvin Pang, Head of Asia Credit Strategy. Andrew Sheets: And today in the program we're going to finish our global tour of credit markets with a discussion of Asia. It's Friday, June 20th at 2pm in London. Kelvin Pang: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Andrew Sheets: Kelvin, thank you for joining us. Thank you especially for joining us so late in your day – to complete this credit World tour. And before we get into the Asia credit market, I think it would just be helpful to frame at a very high level – how you see the economic picture in the region. Kelvin Pang: We do think that the talks and potential deals will probably provide some reprieve towards the growth for the region, but not a big relief. We do think that tariff uncertainty will linger here, and it will keep growth low here; especially if we do think that CapEx of the region will be weaker due to tariff uncertainty. A weaker U.S. dollar, for example, plus monetary easing will help offset some of this growth drag. But overall, we do think that the Asia region could see 90 basis point down in real GDP growth from last year. Andrew Sheets: So, we've got weaker growth in Asia as a function of high tariffs and high tariff uncertainty that can't be offset by further policy easing. In the context of that weaker growth backdrop, higher uncertainty – are credit spreads in the region wide? Kelvin Pang: No, they're actually really low. They're probably at like the lowest since we start having a data in 2013. So definitely like a 12 to 13 year low of the range. Andrew Sheets: And so why is that? Why do you have this kind of seemingly odd disconnect between some real growth challenges? And as you just mentioned, really some of the tightest credit spreads, some of the lowest risk premiums that we've seen in quite some time? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we get this question a lot from clients, and the short answer is that, you know, the technicals, right? Because the last two years, two-three years, we've been seeing negative net supply for Asia credit. A lot of that is driven by China credit. And if you look at year-to-date, non supply remain still negative net supply. And demand side, for example, has not really picked up that strongly. But it still offsets any outflows that we see the last two-three years; is offset by this negative net supply. So, you put this two together, we have this very strong technicals that support very tight spread. And that's why spread has been tight at historical end in the last, I would say, one to two years. Andrew Sheets: Do you see this changes? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we do think it's changed. We have a framework that we call the normalization of Asia Credit technicals. And for that to change, essentially our framework is saying that Treasury yields use need to go down, and dollar funding need to go down. Cheaper dollar funding will bring back issuers. Net supply should pick up. Demand for credit tends to do well in a rate cut cycle. Demand tends to pick up in a rate cut cycle. So, if we have these two supports, we do think that Asia credit technicals will normalize. It's just that, you know, we have four stages of normalization. Unfortunately we are in stage two now, and we still have a bit of room to see some further normalization, especially if we don't get rate cuts. Andrew Sheets: Got it. So, you know, we do think that if Morgan Stanley's yield forecasts are correct, yields are going to fall. Issuers will look at those lower yields as more attractive. They'll issue more paper in Asia and that will kind of help rebalance the market some. But we're just not quite there yet. Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we feel like this road to rate cuts has been delayed a few times, in the last two-three years. And that has really been a big conundrum for a lot of Asia credit investors. So hopefully third time's a charm, right. So next year's a big year. Andrew Sheets: So, I guess while we're waiting for that, you also have this dynamic where for companies in Asia, or I guess for any company in the world, borrowing money locally in Asia is quite cheap. You have very low yields in China. You have very low local yields in Japan. How do those yields compare with the economics of borrowing in dollars? And what do you think that, kind of, means for your market? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, I think the short answer is that we are going to see more foreign issuers in local currency market. And, you know, we wrote a report in in March to just to pick on the dim sum corporate bond market. It benefits… Andrew Sheets: And Kelvin, just to stop you there, could you just describe to the listener what a dim sum bond is? And probably why you don't want to eat it? Kelvin Pang: Yes. So dim sum bond is basically a bond denominator in CNH. So, CNH is a[n] offshore Chinese renminbi, sort of, proxy. And it's called dim sum because it's like the most local cuisine in Hong Kong. Most – a lot of dim sum bonds are issued in Hong Kong. A lot of these CNH bonds are issued in Hong Kong, And that's why, [it has] this, you know, sort nickname called dim sum. Andrew Sheets: So, what is the outlook for that market and the economics for issuers who might be interested in it? Kelvin Pang: Yeah. We think it's a great place for global issuers who have natural demand for renminbi or CNH to issue; 10 years CGB is now is like 1.5-1.6 percent. That makes it a very attractive yield. And for a lot of these multinationals, they have natural renminbi needs. So, they don't need to worry about the hedging part of it. And what – and for a lot of investor base, the demands are picking up because we are seeing that renminbi internationalization are making some progress. You know, progress in that means better demand. So, overall, we do think that there is a good chance that the renminbi market or the dim sum market can be a bit more global player – or global, sort of, friendly market for investors. Andrew Sheets: Kelvin, another sector I wanted to ask you about was the China property sector. This was a sector that generated significant headlines over the last several years. It's faced significant credit challenges. It's very large, even by global standards. What's the latest on how China Property Credit is doing and how does that influence your overall view? Kelvin Pang: it's been four plus years, since first default started. and we've been through like 44 China property defaults, close to about 127 billion of total dollar bonds that defaulted. So, we are close to the end of the default cycle. Unfortunately, the end or default cycle doesn't mean that we are in the recovery phase, or we are in the speedy recovery phase. We are seeing a lot of companies struggling to come out restructuring. There are companies that come out restructuring and re-enter defaults. So, we do think that it is a long way to go for a lot of these property developers to come out restructuring and to get back to a going concern, kind of, status – I think we are still a bit far. We need to see the recovery in the physical property markets. And for that to happen, we do need to see the China economy to pick up, which give confidence to the home buyers in that sense. Andrew Sheets: So, Kelvin, we started this conversation with this kind of odd disconnect that kind of defines your market. You have a region that has some of the most significant growth risks from tariffs, some of the highest tariff exposure, and yet also has some of the lowest credit risk premiums with these quite tight spreads. If you look more broadly, are there any other kind of disconnects in your market that you think investors around the world should be aware of? Kelvin Pang: Yeah, we do think that investors need to take advantage of the disconnect because what we have now is a very compressed spread. And we like to be in high quality, right? Whether it is switching our Asia high yield into Asia investment grade, whether it is switching out of, you know, BBB credit into A credit. We think, you know, investors don't lose a lot of spread by doing that. But they manage to pick out higher quality credit. At the same time, we do think that one thing unique about Asia credit is that we have significant exposure to tariff risk. Asia countries are one of the few that are, you know; seven out the 10 countries that are having trade surplus with the U.S. And that's why we think that the iTraxx Asia Ex-Japan CDS index could be a good way to get exposure to tariffs. And the index did very well during the Liberation Day sell off. Now it's trading back to more like normal level of 70-75 basis point. We do think that, you know, for investors who want long tariff with risk, that could be a good way to add risk. Andrew Sheets: Kelvin, it's been great talking to you. Thanks for taking the time to talk. Kelvin Pang: Thank you, Andrew. Andrew Sheets: And thank you listeners as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts of the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
The latest FOX News poll results show 79% of Americans do believe Iran poses a serious threat, with 78% saying they are “extremely worried about Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.” President Trump has stressed that while he is not angling for U.S. involvement and he would have preferred they just signed a fair nuclear deal, he firmly believes we cannot allow Tehran to have a nuclear weapon. In two weeks' time, his administration will make a decision on U.S. involvement. FOX News Sunday anchor Shannon Bream joins to discuss the political repercussions of the President's decision in the Middle East. The stock market has recovered from April's big tariff-related plunge, but now there is new uncertainty for Wall Street to focus on when it comes to the Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East. President of Kaltbaum Capital Management and FOX Business contributor Gary Kaltbaum joins to break down the miraculous recovery made by American businesses in the wake of “Liberation Day” tariffs and the market's resiliency so far in the face of escalations in the Middle East. Don't miss the good news with Tonya J. Powers. Plus, commentary from the host of “Tomi Lahren is Fearless on Outkick,” Tomi Lahren. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The latest FOX News poll results show 79% of Americans do believe Iran poses a serious threat, with 78% saying they are “extremely worried about Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.” President Trump has stressed that while he is not angling for U.S. involvement and he would have preferred they just signed a fair nuclear deal, he firmly believes we cannot allow Tehran to have a nuclear weapon. In two weeks' time, his administration will make a decision on U.S. involvement. FOX News Sunday anchor Shannon Bream joins to discuss the political repercussions of the President's decision in the Middle East. The stock market has recovered from April's big tariff-related plunge, but now there is new uncertainty for Wall Street to focus on when it comes to the Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East. President of Kaltbaum Capital Management and FOX Business contributor Gary Kaltbaum joins to break down the miraculous recovery made by American businesses in the wake of “Liberation Day” tariffs and the market's resiliency so far in the face of escalations in the Middle East. Don't miss the good news with Tonya J. Powers. Plus, commentary from the host of “Tomi Lahren is Fearless on Outkick,” Tomi Lahren. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
The latest FOX News poll results show 79% of Americans do believe Iran poses a serious threat, with 78% saying they are “extremely worried about Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.” President Trump has stressed that while he is not angling for U.S. involvement and he would have preferred they just signed a fair nuclear deal, he firmly believes we cannot allow Tehran to have a nuclear weapon. In two weeks' time, his administration will make a decision on U.S. involvement. FOX News Sunday anchor Shannon Bream joins to discuss the political repercussions of the President's decision in the Middle East. The stock market has recovered from April's big tariff-related plunge, but now there is new uncertainty for Wall Street to focus on when it comes to the Iran-Israel conflict in the Middle East. President of Kaltbaum Capital Management and FOX Business contributor Gary Kaltbaum joins to break down the miraculous recovery made by American businesses in the wake of “Liberation Day” tariffs and the market's resiliency so far in the face of escalations in the Middle East. Don't miss the good news with Tonya J. Powers. Plus, commentary from the host of “Tomi Lahren is Fearless on Outkick,” Tomi Lahren. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
In this episode of All Things Policy, Anisree Suresh sits with Anupam Manur to analyse the verdict by the US Court of International Trade, which ruled his Liberation Day tariffs illegal. They discuss the legal possibilities, alternative scenarios, and what the new uncertainty offers to the global economy. All Things Policy is a daily podcast on public policy brought to you by the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru.Find out more on our research and other work here: https://takshashila.org.in/...Check out our public policy courses here: https://school.takshashila.org.in
Michael Shaoul discusses what could come out of the G7 meeting, although he's not sure it will “matter that much.” The big question he sees is whether the U.S. gets frustrated and replays ‘Liberation Day', or whether they're willing to prolong trade negotiations. He thinks oil is “perfectly sustainable” for now despite recent supply hits. He also doesn't expect a rate cut from the Fed this week. In the meantime, he points out opportunities he sees for traders' portfolios.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
President Donald Trump's much anticipated ‘Liberation Day' sent global markets into a tizzy in April, but how did private credit firms react?During what we have termed the ‘Deliberation Days' of Q1, private credit investors were scrambling to mitigate potential tariff risks as best they could but they were also on the offensive.Elijah Jackson's latest quarterly report on the state of the market, ‘Good Deal Hunting', is aptly titled as direct lenders did not shy away from stealing BSL marketshare during the period. And PC firms were also able to pick up an extra 25bps of spread on average — how d'ya like them apples?David Brooke, 9fin's private credit editor, sat down with Elijah on this week's episode of Cloud 9fin to unpack some of the wicked smart moves that lenders made.Have any feedback on the podcast? Send us a note at podcast@9fin.com — thanks for listening!
Max Castelli, head of strategy for sovereign institutions at UBS Asset Management, joins Yara Aziz, economist at OMFIF, to unpack the global reserve response after 2 April – a date proclaimed by President Donald Trump as Liberation Day. They dive into US policy shifts, the dollar's evolving role, rising demand for gold and whether Europe is finally ready to take the lead.
U.S. President Donald Trump famously tweeted during his first term, “Trade wars are good, and easy to win.” But the record of the trade war that Trump started with his so-called Liberation Day tariffs in early April suggests that things are a bit more complicated. In an essay for Foreign Affairs appropriately titled, “Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose,” the economist Adam Posen argues that the United States has a weaker hand than the Trump administration believes. That's especially true when it comes to China, the world's second-largest economy and perhaps the real target of Trump's trade offensive. “It is China that has escalation dominance in this trade war,” Posen writes. “Washington, not Beijing, is betting all in on a losing hand.” Dan Kurtz-Phelan spoke to Posen, who is president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, on June 9 about the short- and long-term effects of Trump's tariffs and the economic uncertainty they've caused, about what it would take to constructively remake the global economy, and about the growing risks to the United States' economic position at an especially dangerous time. You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
P.M. Edition for June 10. A new report out from the World Bank says that the U.S. economy this year will slow to half of its 2024 growth rate, with global economic growth slowing more modestly. WSJ economics editor Paul Hannon talks about the drivers of the slowdown, and how it may change. Plus, as markets reeled in the days after President Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs, lawmakers and their families traded stocks heavily, according to a WSJ analysis. We hear from Katy Stech Ferek, who covers Congress for the Journal, about how the rules around trades like these could change in the future. And we exclusively report that U.S. government agencies tracked Elon Musk's foreign visitors in 2022 and 2023. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Trump sends in the Devil Dogs to quell immigration riots. ft @truemattedwards Liberation Day saw massive congressional stock trading. Honest mom is ‘pissing off a lot of men' by explaining why many women have a low sex drive.
Our analysts Betsy Graseck, Manan Gosalia and Ryan Kenny discuss the major discussions they expect to highlight Morgan Stanley's upcoming U.S. Financials conference.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Betsy Graseck: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Betsy Graseck, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Large Cap Bank Analyst and Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research. Today we take a look at the key debates in the U.S. financials industry. It's Monday, June 9th at 10:30am in New York.Tomorrow Morgan Stanley kicks off its annual U.S. Financials Conference right here in New York City. We wanted to give you a glimpse into some of the most significant themes that we expect will be addressed at the conference. And so, I'm here with two of my colleagues, Manan Gosalia, U.S. Midcap Banks Analyst, and Ryan Kenny, U.S. Midcaps Advisor Analyst.Investors are grappling with navigating economic uncertainty from new tariff policies, inflation concerns, and immigration challenges – all of which impacts financial growth and credit quality. On the positive side, they are also looking closely at regulatory shifts under the Trump administration, which could ease banking rules for the first time since the Great Financial Crisis.Let's hear what our experts are expecting. Manan, ahead of the conference, what key themes do you expect mid-cap banks will highlight?Manan Gosalia: So, there are three key themes that we've been focused on for the mid-cap banks: loan growth, net interest margins, and capital. So, first on loan growth. Loan growth for the regional banks has been fairly tepid at about 2 to 3 percent year-on-year, and the tone from bank management teams has been fairly mixed in the April earning season that followed the tariff announcements on April 2nd. Some banks were starting to see the uncertainty weigh on corporate decision making and borrowing activity, while others were only seeing a slow down in some parts of their portfolio, with a pickup in other parts. Now that we've had two months to digest the announcements and several more positive developments on tariff negotiations, we expect that the tone from bank management teams will be more positive. Now, we don't expect them to say growth is accelerating, but we do expect that they will say loan growth is holding up with strong pipelines. On the second topic, net interest margins, we expect to hear that there is still room for margin expansion as we go through this year. And that's coming in two places, particularly as bank term deposits continue to reprice lower. And then the back book of fixed rate loans and securities, essentially assets that were put on the books four to five years ago when rates were a lot lower, are now rolling over at today's higher rates. Betsy Graseck: So, is the long end of the curve going up a good thing?Manan Gosalia: Yes, for net interest margins. But on the flip side, the tenure going up is slightly negative for bank capital. So that brings me to my third theme. The regional banks are overall in a much better place on capital than they were two years ago. Balance sheets have improved. Capital levels remain solid across the sector. But the recent increase in the long end of the curve is marginally negative for capital, given that there will be a higher negative mark on securities that banks hold. But we believe that higher capital levels that regional banks have accumulated over the past couple of years will help cushion some of these negative marks, and we don't expect the recent shift in the tenure will have a meaningful impact on bank capital plans.Betsy Graseck: So, the increase in the 10-year pulls down capital a little bit, but not enough to trip any regulatory minimums?Manan Gosalia: Correct.Betsy Graseck: So, all in the 10-year yield going up is a good thing?Manan Gosalia: It's slightly negative, but I would expect it does not impact bank growth plans. Betsy Graseck: Okay. All in, what's the message from mid-cap banks?Manan Gosalia: All in, I would expect the tone to be a little more positive than the banks had at April earnings.Betsy Graseck: Excellent. Thanks so much, Manan. Ryan, what about you? What are you expecting mid-cap advisors will say?Ryan Kenny: So, I think we'll hear a lot about the trends in M&A. And when we last heard from investment bank management teams during April earnings, the messaging was more cautious. We heard about M&A deals being paused as companies processed the Liberation Day tariffs, and a small number of deals being pulled. Tomorrow at our conference, expect to hear a measured but slightly improved tone. Look, there's still a lot of uncertainty out there, but what's changed since April is the fact that the U.S. administration is flexing in response to markets. So that should help shore up more confidence needed to do deals, and there's tremendous pent-up demand for corporate activity. Over the last three years – so 2022 to 2024 – M&A volumes relative to nominal GDP have been running 30 to 40 percent below three-decade averages. Equity capital markets volumes 50 to 60 percent below average. There is tremendous need for private equity firms to exit their portfolio investments and deploy $4 trillion of dry powder that has accumulated and also structural themes for corporates – like the need for AI capabilities, energy and biotech consolidation and reshoring – that should fuel mergers as a cycle gets going.So, I think for this group, the message will likely be: April and May – more challenged from a deal flow perspective; but back up of the year, you should start to expect some improvement.Betsy Graseck: So slightly improved tone…Ryan Kenny: Slightly improved. And one of the other really interesting themes that the investment banks will talk about is the substantial growth of private capital advisory.So, this is advising private equity funds and owners on capital raising, liquidation, including secondary transactions and continuation funds. And what will be interesting is how the clients set here is growing. We've seen this quarter, major universities, some local governments that increasingly need liquidity and they're hiring investment banks to advise on selling private equity fund interests.It's really going to be a great discussion because private capital advisory is a major growth area for the boutique investment banks that I cover.Betsy Graseck: How big of a sleeve do you think this could become – as big as M&A outright?Ryan Kenny: Probably not as big as M&A outright, but significant. And it helps give the investment banks' relationships with financial sponsors who are active on the M&A front. So, it can be a share gain story.So, Betsy, what about you? You cover the large cap banks. What do you expect to hear?Betsy Graseck: Well, before I answer that, I do want to just put a pin on it.So, you're saying that for your coverage Ryan, we have some green shoots coming through...Ryan Kenny: Yeah, green shoots and more positive than in April.Betsy Graseck: And Manan on your side? Same?Manan Gosalia: A little bit more of a positive than April earnings, but more of the same as we heard at the start of the year.Betsy Graseck: Okay. Going back to the future then, I suppose we could say. Excellent. Well on large cap banks, I do expect large cap banks will be reflecting some of the same themes that you both just discussed. In particular, you know, we'll talk about IPOs. IPOs are holding up. We look at IPOs where we had 26 IPOs in the past week alone.That's up from 22 on average year-to-date in 2025. And I do think that the large cap banks will highlight that capital market activity is building and can accelerate from here, as long as equity volatility remains contained. By which we mean VIX is at 20 or below. And with capital market activity should come increased lending activity. It's very exciting. What's going on here is that when you do an M&A, you have to finance it, and that financing comes from either the bond market or banks or private credit. M&A financing is a key driver of CNI loan growth. A lot of people don't know that. And CNI loan growth, we do think will be moving from current levels of about 2 percent year-on-year, as per the most recent Fed H.8 data to 5 percent as M&A comes through over the next year plus. And then the other major driver of CNI loans is loans to non-depository financial institutions, which is also known as NDFI Loans. NDFI loans have been getting a lot of press recently. We see this as much ado about reclassification. That said, investors are asking what is the risk of this book of business? Our view is that it's similar to overall CNI loan risk, and we will dig into that outlook with managements at the conference. It'll be exciting. Additionally, we will touch on regulation and how easing of regulation could change strategies for capital utilization and capital deployment. So, you want to have an ear out for that. Well, Manan, Ryan, it's been great speaking with you today.Manan Gosalia: Should be an exciting conference.Ryan Kenny: Thanks for having us on.Betsy Graseck: And thanks for listening everyone. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Good evening: The show begins in Istanbul where Ukraine and Russia exchange profoundly mutually unacceptable memos of their war aims. 1945 BERLIN CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR FIRST HOUR 9:15-9:30 1/2: Ukraine: Unviable memorandums. Anatol Lieven, Quincy Institute. 9:30-9:45 2/2: Ukraine: Unviable memorandums. Anatol Lieven. 9:45-10:00 1/2: Tariffs; What's wrong with the CIT decision that Liberation Day is unconstitutional? John Yoo, Civitas Institute. 10:00 2/2: Tariffs; What's wrong with the CIT decision that Liberation Day is unconstitutional? John Yoo, Civitas Institute. SECOND HOUR 10:00-10:15 Israel: Gaza aid. Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1. Ambassador Yechiel Leiter. 10:15-10:30 Iran: Trump administration jaw jaw. David Albright, Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1. 10:30-10:45 Antisemitism: Ananda and Australia campus tragedy. Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel. Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1. 10:45-11:00 Iran: The head of the snake. Jonathan Ruhe, JINSA. Malcolm Hoenlein @conf_of_pres @mhoenlein1. THIRD HOUR 11:00-11:15 #NewWorldReport: Mexico under Morena. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #newworldreportellis 11:15-11:30 #NewWorldReport: Peru troubles. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #newworldreportellis 11:30-11:45 #NewWorldReport: Bukele of El Salvador. Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #newworldreportellis 11:45-12:00 Suriname: The good news. #NewWorldReport: Latin American Research Professor Evan Ellis, U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. @revanellis #newworldreportellis FOURTH HOUR 12:00-12:15 AI: Reducing headcount. #ScalaReport: Chris Riegel CEO, Scala.com @stratacache. 12:15-12:30 Mexico: Return of PRI as Morena. Mary Anastasia O'Grady, WSJ. 12:30-12:45 1/2: #Hotel Mars: Casey Dreier, Planetary Society. David Livingston: NASA in retreat from JPL. 12:45-1:00 AM 2/2: #Hotel Mars: Casey Dreier, Planetary Society. David Livingston: NASA in retreat from JPL.
2/2: TARIFFS; WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE CIT DECISION THAT LIBERATION DAY IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL? JOHN YOO, CIVITAS INSTITUTE SCOTUS 1876
1/2: TARIFFS; WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE CIT DECISION THAT LIBERATION DAY IS UNCONSTITUTIONAL? JOHN YOO, CIVITAS INSTITUTE 1905 SCOTUS
In this episode of Good Morning Liberty, hosts Nate Thurston and Charles Thompson dive into the Dumb Bleep of the Month for April and May 2025. They cover a variety of absurd and controversial topics including Trump's Liberation Day tariff announcement, Douglas Murray vs. Dave Smith debate, Bill Burr's inaccurate economic takes, Misfit Patriot's genocidal comments, and much more. Join them as they humorously unpack the dumbest events of the past two months, featuring mariachis in the Texas House, shocking Biden revelations, and a showdown between Trump and Thomas Massie. Buckle up for a mix of laughter and facepalms! (00:00) Intro (02:12) April's Dumb Bleep Nominees (09:57) Debate Highlights: Douglas Murray vs. Dave Smith (14:32) Bill Burr's Economic Rant (23:51) Misfit Patriot's Controversial Statements (29:36) May's Dumb Bleep Nominees (35:01) Redistribution and White Fragility (35:51) African Development Foundation Scandal (43:16) Biden's Mental Acuity Revelations (50:48) Texas House and Property Taxes (55:04) Trump vs. Massie and Fiscal Policy (01:05:29) Conclusion and Recap Links: https://gml.bio.link/ YOUTUBE: https://bit.ly/3UwsRiv RUMBLE: https://rumble.com/c/GML Check out Martens Minute! https://martensminute.podbean.com/ Follow Josh Martens on X: https://twitter.com/joshmartens13 Join the private discord & chat during the show! joingml.com Bank on Yourself bankonyourself.com/gml Get FACTOR Today! FACTORMEALS.com/factorpodcast Good Morning Liberty is sponsored by BetterHelp! Rediscover your curiosity today by visiting Betterhelp.com/GML (Get 10% off your first month) Protect your privacy and unlock the full potential of your streaming services with ExpressVPN. Get 3 more months absolutely FREE by using our link EXPRESSVPN.com/GML
Elon Musk set off a grenade in conservative circles this week, trashing the one big, beautiful bill Trump has staked so much on. He didn't just throw shade — he called it a “disgusting abomination,” backed Rand Paul's $5 trillion deficit claim, and waved the American flag emoji as punctuation. This wasn't a random tweet. This was Musk choosing to detonate right as Speaker Mike Johnson is working the Senate hard to shepherd this bill into law. Johnson, for his part, did respond, claiming he had a 20-minute phone call with Musk where the topic never came up. But c'mon — that silence says a lot. Either Johnson's not telling the whole story, or Musk baited him. Neither looks great.The timing is brutal. Musk has been a reliable MAGA ally — hosting DeSantis's launch, reshaping Twitter into a free speech battleground, becoming a key donor and message amplifier. When he turns on your signature policy, it signals open season. And it's not just personal. Elon hates the EV credit phase-outs in the bill. He's furious about the AI regulatory overrides that strip individual from states like California. And his businesses, from SpaceX to Starlink, all have reasons to be wary of the bill's broader tech oversight. So what looked like a united conservative front just fractured — and it fractured loudly. This is the part of the process where fights get public. And loud. And weird.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Iowa and the 2024 RemapIt's moments like this that make me appreciate the Iowa caucus even more. Say what you will about the process — yes, it's clunky, yes, it can be exclusionary — but nobody works harder at retail politics than Iowans. I've been in diners, VFW halls, and school gyms across that state. These are folks who grill candidates, push policy details, and actually pay attention. Compare that to South Carolina, which Biden bumped to the front of the line for the Democratic primary. That move was clearly strategic — to avoid an early embarrassment — but it came at a cost. The engagement just isn't the same. You can walk into a bar in Manchester and get into a policy debate with a random guy sipping Busch Light. That's not happening in Columbia.Now, there's a window to fix it. With 2024 settled, both parties could realign the primary calendar — and they should. Let Iowa go first. Let New Hampshire follow. Put South Carolina third, Nevada fourth. Let people earn it. The current process is dominated by consultants who don't want surprises. But surprises are good. They shake things up. They reveal flaws. They test candidates in real-time, not just in sanitized TV town halls. If you want to know who can campaign in a blizzard, let 'em face a real one. Bring back the vetting. Bring back the grit.Deal Deadlines and Tiers of ImportanceThen there's the global chessboard. June marks the end of the 90-day tariff pause Trump announced on Liberation Day — his dramatic trade reset. That pause gave negotiators time to cut new deals, to defuse tensions. But with just weeks left, where are the deals? Trump hasn't sealed anything. Not with China. Not with India. Not with Vietnam, or Mexico, or even Taiwan. Instead, he's hosting white paper summits and showing off 2017 flashbacks. The branding is tight, but the substance is lagging.Look at the scoreboard. Ukraine was inching toward peace talks — then dropped a drone strike that disabled a third of Russia's bomber fleet. That doesn't scream “diplomatic breakthrough.” Gaza? The American-backed aid initiative is collapsing under mutual mistrust and unconfirmed shootings. We're left trying to guess which footage is real and which claims are propaganda. And while all this plays out, the trade environment remains stuck. Japan, South Korea, Australia — they're locked into frameworks that don't need rewriting. The real action would be a comprehensive tariff reset with Mexico or Vietnam, or a groundbreaking semiconductor pact with Taiwan. But so far, we're getting press releases, not treaties.So here's how I see it. You've got three tiers of trade potential. Tier 1: countries that matter symbolically — Canada, UK, the Netherlands. Deals here look good but don't move markets. Tier 2: mid-size powerhouses like South Korea, Japan, and Germany. All three matter for automotives, while South Korea and Japan both matter for their tech sectors. Finally, Tier 3 is where it counts: China, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, India. If Trump can close one deal there, he regains the upper hand. If he can't, he enters the summer with big talk and no wins — just in time for Senate Democrats to go on offense. Time is ticking.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:10 - Elon Trashes the BBB00:08:09 - Iowa Caucus 00:11:24 - Trump Trade Tiers00:22:14 - Interview with Michael Cohen00:49:52 - Update00:50:33 - Big Beautiful Bill Senate Discussions00:53:05 - Jaime Harrison Comments00:55:08 - Trump China Trade Talks00:57:23 - Interview with Michael Cohen, con't.01:35:36 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how his outlook on earnings and valuations give him a constructive view on U.S. equities for the next 12 months.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll discuss where there is the most push back to our Mid-year outlook and why I remain convicted in our generally constructive view on U.S. equities for the next 12 months.It's Monday, June 2nd at 11:30am in New York.So, let's get after it.To briefly summarize our outlook, we have maintained our 6500 12-month price target for the S&P 500 this year despite what has been a very volatile first five months – both in terms of news flow and price action. Part of the reason we didn't change this view stems from the fact that we expected the first half to be challenging for U.S. stocks but to be followed by a more favorable second half. Much of this was related to our view that the new administration would pursue the growth negative part of their policy agenda first. This played out -- with their focus on immigration enforcement, spending cutbacks and tariffs. In addition to these policy adjustments, we also expected AI capex to decelerate in the first half after such fast growth last year. All of these factors conspired to weigh on both economic growth and earnings revisions.Second, the way in which tariffs were rolled out on Liberation Day was a shock to most market participants, including us, and served as the perfect catalyst for what can only be described as capitulation selling by many institutional investors. That capitulation has set the stage for the very reflexive snap back in equity prices that is also supported by a positive rate of change on policy, earnings revisions breadth, financial conditions and a weaker U.S. dollar.The main push back to our views centers on our constructive earnings outlook for high single digit growth both this year and next and our view that valuations can remain elevated at 21.5x forward Earnings. On the earnings front, our calendar year earnings estimates already incorporate a mid-single-digit percent hit to bottoms-up consensus forecasts. Second, our Leading Earnings Indicator which projects Earnings Per Share growth 12 months out is suggesting a sideways consolidation in growth in the high single-digit range over the next year.Third, a weaker dollar, elements of the tax bill and AI-driven productivity should be incremental tailwinds for earnings that are not in our model. Fourth, we have experienced rolling recessions for many sectors of the private economy for the last 3 years, which makes growth comparisons easier. Finally, and most importantly, the rate of change on earnings revisions breadth has inflected higher from a very low level after a year-long downturn. On valuation, our work shows that if earnings growth is above the long-term median of 7 percent and if the fed funds rate is down on a year-over-year basis, it's very rare to see multiple compression. In fact, Price Earnings multiples have expanded 90 percent of the time under these conditions to the tune of 9 percent over a 12- month period. Therefore, in some ways we're being conservative with our forecast for the S&P 500's price earnings ratio to remain flat at current levels over the next year.With respect to our favorite valuation metric, the equity risk premium, it's interesting to note that in the week following Liberation Day, the Equity Risk Premium reached the same level we witnessed in the aftermath of the 9-11 shock in 2001 and even exceeded the risk premium reached during the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998. Both episodes resulted in 20 percent corrections to the S&P 500 much like we experienced this year only to be followed by very strong equity markets over the next year.The bottom line is that I remain convicted in both our earnings forecast for high single digit earnings growth for this year and next; and my view that valuations can remain elevated in this classic late cycle expansion of slower economic growth that typically elicits interest rate cuts from the Fed.Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review; and if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Dr. Mehmet Oz, former TV host and Pennsylvania Senate candidate, is one of America's most famous physicians. Now he's running the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, which means he's in charge of programs that provide health care for about half of all Americans. He sits down with White House Bureau Chief Dasha Burns to discuss potential Medicaid cuts, his big plans to lower drug pricing, why he's fielding early morning phone calls from President Trump, and his advice to patients to “be curious” about their health. Plus, Burns is joined by senior political columnist and politics bureau chief Jonathan Martin to discuss his juicy column about the Ohio governor's race featuring Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and former Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel. And senior legal affairs reporter Kyle Cheney joins to discuss the showdown between Trump and the courts over his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week marked more than 600 days since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. In the wake of Hamas' horrific Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attack on Israel, Palestinian health officials say at least 50,000 people – including thousands of women and children – have died from Israeli airstrikes and bombings in the Gaza Strip. As the war drags on, protesters on both sides are speaking out and demanding that their governments do more to end the conflict. Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, an Israeli academic and host of the 'History of the Land' of Israel podcast, talks about the nuances of the protests and what they could mean for a potential end to the war.And in headlines: A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated most of President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. will begin "aggressively" revoking the visas of Chinese college students, and the White House acknowledges errors in the hotly anticipated 'Make America Healthy Again' report.Show Notes:Check out Shaiel's podcast – https://tinyurl.com/5n8axdj2Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcastFollow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday
Mike Warren is joined by David French, Jonah Goldberg, Steve Hayes, and Grayson Logue to discuss the latest legal challenges to the Trump administration's Liberation Day tariffs and the most recent round of presidential pardons. The Agenda:—The Cases That Could Stop Trump's Tariffs—Will Trump double down on tariffs?—Openly corrupt pardons—Can the courts save American politics?—Trump's transactional politics—Russia-Ukraine peace talks—A new Putin—NWYT: Communal kid discipline? Show Notes—Ilya Somin for The Dispatch—Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson on The Remnant Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
A federal court has blocked most of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. The judges said the president overstepped his authority when he put tariffs on nearly every country in the world last month. Trump also appears increasingly frustrated with Russian leader Vladimir Putin over Moscow's ongoing airstrikes in Ukraine. How could this affect any peace negotiations? And one of the largest right-wing political gatherings is getting underway in Eastern Europe.Want more comprehensive analysis of the most important news of the day, plus a little fun? Subscribe to the Up First newsletter.Today's episode of Up First was edited by Kara Platoni, Miguel Macias, Arezou Rezvani, HJ Mai and Lisa Thomson. It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Neisha Heinis, and our technical director is Carleigh Strange.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
SEASON 3 EPISODE 130: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:45) BREAKING NEWS: A Reagan judge, an Obama judge, and a Trump judge walk into a courtroom and rule Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs - which not only crashed our economy but that of the entire world's - are not a legal use of the 1977 laws empowering him to take actions in the event of an economic emergency. This is not just any court. It's the United States Court of International Trade. Trump already appealed. Stephen Miller already called it a "judicial coup." The fact that America's corporations simply went along with Trump's crap when it knew - as the court knew - this was executive overreach - is its own problem. The halt on the tariffs will itself probably be halted by the appeals. So the re-shaping of the market will be re-re-shaped by the judges, and re-re-re-shaped by the further litigation. That, of course, is not Trump's problem. His only job is to break stuff. SPECIAL COMMENT: Now it's Governor Gretchen Whitmer has learned the lesson - twice. Never appease Trump, never negotiate with Trump, never cooperate with Trump, never support anything Trump wants, never do anything Trump wants. All that registers with him is: you are easier for him to destroy. She sucked up to him. She worked with him. He tricked her into appearing at his photo-op. She hid her face behind a folder like it was a perp walk. Now, he says he's looking into PARDONING THE TERRORISTS CONVICTED OF TRYING TO KIDNAP HER. There is only one way Gretchen Whitmer is going to SURVIVE Trump, Governor. Apple is going to SURVIVE Trump, Tim Cook. There is only one way Columbia is going to SURVIVE Trump, Claire Shipman. There is only one way the White House Correspondents are going to SURVIVE Trump, Eugene Daniels. If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’ll spell it out. Doing what he wants only tells him you will DO WHAT HE WANTS. So he comes back and gives you ANOTHER list of what he wants. He’s a blackmailer. He’s a crooked businessman. He’s a bully. There is only one way to SURVIVE Trump and that is to DESTROY Trump. In a world of White House Correspondents, be the PENTAGON Correspondents. In a world of Apples, be Wal-Mart. In a world of Columbias, be a Harvard. Put your hands on Trump’s shoulders and knee him in the groin. Stand up to him and you can then own HIM, like the Harvard newspaper op-ed writer who has proposed settling the disputes between her school and Trump by challenging Secretary of "Education" Linda McMahon, the wife of the wrestling slime bag, to a Steel Cage Match. ALSO: TRUMP CONFESSES to operating on Russia's behalf and to protecting Putin. HE LEARNS for the first time of the Wall Street analysts mocking him with the tariff acronym "TACO" ("Trump Always Chickens Out") and he chickens out. Turns out Tom Homan also worked for the top Private Prison company. A woman who contributed a million to Trump gets a pardon for her jailbird son. Anybody remember Rudy Giuliani's alleged boast he could sell you a pardon for two million, to be split between him and Trump. And a past president's grandson has died. The president he was the grandson of, left office in... 1845. B-Block (33:00) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Kristi Noem and the camel she rode in on. Jesse Watters and Rep. Tim Burchett try to make fun of men using straws not remembering there's a photo of Trump at Yankee Stadium using a straw. And boy did THIS sound familiar: Rupert Murdoch just buried a New York Post reporter who followed all the rules and instructions Murdoch's minions had laid out for him, because somebody didn't like the story... Just like in 2001 Rupert personally fired ME for doing exactly the same thing (C-Block 43:00 THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL). The punchline is the reporter's name is Josh Kosman and last September he was the guy at The Post who called and told me they were about to update the RFK Jr/Olivia Nuzzi sexting story by claiming I had lived with Olivia. So I busted his scoop and put the story out immediately. Now we're in the Rupert Isn't A Journalist Club. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
It's not secret Donald Trump has been the subject of lawyer for years now. When everything else failed to stop his election to a second term, the left used the last tool they had at their disposal to thwart his agenda as president. Judges. Yesterday, a new judicial panel out of New York you've likely never heard of has swooped in to declare Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff agenda unconstitutional. So what does that mean as Trump himself vows to appeal this to the Supreme Court? EJ Antoni from the Heritage Foundation discusses both this and the announcement that DOGE cuts are coming next week in the form of a new package called "rescission." Meanwhile, our friend Daniel Turner at Power The Future is questioning the legality and constitutionality of a number of executive orders signed under Joe Biden that Joe Biden likely never physically signed himself or even knew existed. And what's going to happen as the kids in the Senate get their hands on the "big, beautiful bill?" The former Secretary of the US Senate Kelly Johnston joins us to help explain.-For more info visit the official website: https://chrisstigall.comInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/chrisstigallshow/Twitter: https://twitter.com/ChrisStigallFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/chris.stigall/Listen on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/StigallPodListen on Apple Podcasts: https://bit.ly/StigallShow-Help protect your wealth with real, physical gold and silver. Texas Bullion Exchange helps everyday Americans diversify with tailored portfolios, IRA rollovers, and expert support every step of the way.
The US Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump's so-called fentanyl and Liberation Day tariffs constituted executive overreach. Now what? Artificial intelligence is on a wild ride through a well-known hype cycle—and is arriving at a “trough of disillusionment” (8:49). And a new book about Xi Jinping's father reveals much about the Chinese president himself (16:42).Get a world of insights by subscribing to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
-- On the Show: — Federal court rules Trump's sweeping Liberation Day tariffs illegal, a massive blow to his second-term economic agenda — Trump declares all-out war on progressive values, using over 150 executive orders to dismantle DEI, environmental, and immigration protections — Republican lawmakers introduce a bill to defund medical schools that acknowledge systemic racism or teach diversity — Donald Trump appears visibly confused in a string of public gaffes, raising concerns about his cognitive fitness — Trump Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt implodes on Fox News, calling for fewer LGBTQ majors and more plumbers — Ben Shapiro turns on Trump over his weak stance on Ukraine, signaling cracks in right-wing media support — David contemplates contingency plans to leave the country as Trump ramps up authoritarian attacks — MAGA Congresswoman Ashley Hinson booed by her own constituents for praising Trump's economic agenda — Trump supporters finally confront the truth: they're never getting the Epstein files, and Trump doesn't want them released -- On the Bonus Show: Jordan Peterson's viral atheist debate moment, Trump's possible pardon of Whitmer kidnappers, and a Trump-friendly reality TV couple gets a $36M fraud pardon, much more...
The US Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump's so-called fentanyl and Liberation Day tariffs constituted executive overreach. Now what? Artificial intelligence is on a wild ride through a well-known hype cycle—and is arriving at a “trough of disillusionment” (8:49). And a new book about Xi Jinping's father reveals much about the Chinese president himself (16:42).Get a world of insights by subscribing to Economist Podcasts+. For more information about how to access Economist Podcasts+, please visit our FAQs page or watch our video explaining how to link your account.
REALIGNMENT NEWSLETTER: https://therealignment.substack.com/PURCHASE BOOKS AT OUR BOOKSHOP: https://bookshop.org/shop/therealignmentEmail Us: realignmentpod@gmail.comIan Fletcher, co-author of Industrial Policy for the United States: Winning the Competition for Good Jobs and High-Value Industries, joins The Realignment. Marshall and Ian discuss what industrial policy actually means and why it includes trade policy, the rise and fall of free trade orthodoxy, what went right and wrong with Trump and Biden's industrial policy strategies, why "Liberation Day" isn't enough to reindustrialize America, and which industries and technologies the U.S. should focus its attention on.
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