Public holiday of various countries to commemorate liberation from another country
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NICO HARRISON IS GONE! Danny celebrates Liberation Day for the Mavericks. The guys recap Eagles/Packers and a weekend of uneventful football. Daron Payne throwing haymakers, fantasy trades, pick'ems, WWE, WNBA, and more! 00:00 - Intro 5:20 - Fantasy Chatter 26:00 - Around the NFL 55:20 - NFL Pick'ems 1:08:11 - College Football Pick'ems 1:13:47 - NBA 1:29:28 - WWE 1:40:45 - Signoff Don't forget to submit your questions to the guys at speakonitpod14@gmail.com so they can answer them during the next show! Follow the squad!! @losdeemix @dannyocean41 @goingfor2live @speakonit_pod (Twitter, TikTok, and Instagram)
The Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices have been treating the Trump administration with such extreme deference that we were honestly a little flummoxed listening to this week's arguments over his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Shockingly, during Wednesday's arguments in Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, it seemed like the justices were in fact, concerned with presidential overreach. But was this a true bridge-too-far-moment, or were they more concerned about their own pocketbooks? This week, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern discussed the arguments with Marc Busch, the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Busch is an expert on international trade policy and law, and signed onto an amicus brief on behalf of trade scholars explaining the history and context of IEEPA. Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices have been treating the Trump administration with such extreme deference that we were honestly a little flummoxed listening to this week's arguments over his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Shockingly, during Wednesday's arguments in Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, it seemed like the justices were in fact, concerned with presidential overreach. But was this a true bridge-too-far-moment, or were they more concerned about their own pocketbooks? This week, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern discussed the arguments with Marc Busch, the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Busch is an expert on international trade policy and law, and signed onto an amicus brief on behalf of trade scholars explaining the history and context of IEEPA. Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Republican-appointed Supreme Court justices have been treating the Trump administration with such extreme deference that we were honestly a little flummoxed listening to this week's arguments over his “Liberation Day” tariffs. Shockingly, during Wednesday's arguments in Learning Resources v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, it seemed like the justices were in fact, concerned with presidential overreach. But was this a true bridge-too-far-moment, or were they more concerned about their own pocketbooks? This week, Dahlia Lithwick and Mark Joseph Stern discussed the arguments with Marc Busch, the Karl F. Landegger Professor of International Business Diplomacy at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. Busch is an expert on international trade policy and law, and signed onto an amicus brief on behalf of trade scholars explaining the history and context of IEEPA. Want more Amicus? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes with exclusive legal analysis. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Amicus show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/amicusplus to get access wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
It was a “risk-off” week for global markets, with most indices slipping as investors became more nervous about extended valuations across parts of the US market. The local NZX 50 bucked the global trend with a small rise, while the NZ dollar continued to drift lower. It fell to US$0.56 against the greenback, the lowest since just after Liberation Day in April. The currency is also the weakest since 2015 against the British pound, the lowest since 2013 against the Australian dollar and at levels we haven't seen since 2009 against the euro!
Het is hem gelukt. Elon Musk heeft zijn bonus van 1000 miljard dollar (van een biljoen) er doorheen gedrukt. Aandeelhouders van Tesla gingen massaal akkoord: 75 procent stemt voor. Als hij de komende 10 jaar alle doelstellingen haalt, krijgt hij die beloning. Deze aflevering hoor je of dat eigenlijk wel slim is van die aandeelhouders. Aandeelhouders die misschien ook niet veel anders konden voor voor stemmen, want ze werden gedwongen door de directie. Gaan meer beursbedrijven dit doen?Nu we het toch over een Amerikaans aandeel hebben, laten we het ook over andere Amerikaanse aandelen hebben. Die zijn (te wijten aan Donald Trump) een stukje minder geliefd. Sinds Liberation Day zijn buitenlandse beleggers uitgestapt en altijd nog niet terug. Dan is het tijd voor een follow-up. Een paar dagen geleden deed softwarebedrijf Bird een poging om CM.com over te nemen. 166 miljoen euro boden ze ervoor. Maar dat bod wordt keihard afgewezen. Verder hebben we het over de Chinese export. Die is onverwachts toch ingestort. Daarover gesproken: het aandeel van Duolingo is ook ingestort. Het taalbedrijf heeft de ergste beursdag achter de rug. Deze aflevering kijken we ook naar andere bedrijven die deze week werden afgestraft voor slechte cijfers. Zijn beleggers niet veel te streng?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Het is hem gelukt. Elon Musk heeft zijn bonus van 1000 miljard dollar (van een biljoen) er doorheen gedrukt. Aandeelhouders van Tesla gingen massaal akkoord: 75 procent stemt voor. Als hij de komende 10 jaar alle doelstellingen haalt, krijgt hij die beloning. Deze aflevering hoor je of dat eigenlijk wel slim is van die aandeelhouders. Aandeelhouders die misschien ook niet veel anders konden voor voor stemmen, want ze werden gedwongen door de directie. Gaan meer beursbedrijven dit doen?Nu we het toch over een Amerikaans aandeel hebben, laten we het ook over andere Amerikaanse aandelen hebben. Die zijn (te wijten aan Donald Trump) een stukje minder geliefd. Sinds Liberation Day zijn buitenlandse beleggers uitgestapt en altijd nog niet terug. Dan is het tijd voor een follow-up. Een paar dagen geleden deed softwarebedrijf Bird een poging om CM.com over te nemen. 166 miljoen euro boden ze ervoor. Maar dat bod wordt keihard afgewezen. Verder hebben we het over de Chinese export. Die is onverwachts toch ingestort. Daarover gesproken: het aandeel van Duolingo is ook ingestort. Het taalbedrijf heeft de ergste beursdag achter de rug. Deze aflevering kijken we ook naar andere bedrijven die deze week werden afgestraft voor slechte cijfers. Zijn beleggers niet veel te streng?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Six months on from “Liberation Day” and with tariffs still six times higher than at the start of the year, how has the global economy responded and what happens next? Initially billed as a way to rebuild supply chains, bring manufacturing back onshore, and reduce US dependence on imports, the reality has proven more complex. In this episode of The Quick Take, we speak to Anais Caldwell-Jones (Principal at LCP and member of our macroeconomic team) to explore how other major economies have responded to US tariffs, what is the impact on the macroeconomic picture, the market reaction so far, and what investors should be on the lookout in the near future.
The Supreme Court Justices are now hearing oral arguments on the legality of President Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs imposed on dozens of countries, including China, Mexico and Canada. What could the ruling mean for trade and the economy? Plus, Holly shares insight on the developing news of a UPS plane crash in Louisville.
Tariffs are getting their day in court.On Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in two cases about the legality of President Donald Trump's favorite policy tool.Shortly after he took office, Trump started signing executive orders imposing tariffs on America's trading partners. He declared April 2 “Liberation Day,” and enacted a broad package of import duties from Canada to China and way beyond, upending U.S. economic policy and reshaping global trade.He did it all without input from Congress. And that might, or might not, have violated presidential power under the Constitution.So, are the Trump administration's tariffs legal?Find more of our programs online. Listen to 1A sponsor-free by signing up for 1A+ at plus.npr.org/the1a. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy
Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence.
Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence.
SHOW 11-3-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1895 TRINIDAD THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT VENEZUELA. FIRST HOUR 9-915 Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations. 915-930 Middle East Disorder, Gaza Ceasefire, and Lessons from War Reporting. Bill Roggio and Husain Haqqani address the persistent disorder in the Middle East, noting that the Gaza ceasefire ("hudna") is only a pause. Ambassador Haqqani critiques the flawed concept of pursuing a "war to end all wars," suggesting the world is a situation to endure, not solve permanently. Bill Roggio compares the current stabilization efforts to the failed attempts in Afghanistan following the Taliban's ouster, noting that key players like Hamas remain undefeated or unwilling to disarm. Both experts stress the difficulty of verifying initial reports of mass violence, urging patience and skepticism regarding premature assumptions about perpetrators or motivations. 930-945 Post-Ceasefire Gaza Hostages and Hezbollah Regeneration in Lebanon. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how following the Gaza ceasefire, the process of returning remains of slain hostages remains delayed, which Daoud suggests Hamas uses as leverage to prevent Israel from resuming conflict and entrenching a "post-war mentality." Experts note that Hezbollah is actively regenerating its military capabilities in Lebanon, bypassing disarmament efforts. Despite continuous, targeted Israeli strikes against Hezbollah personnel, there is minimal international condemnation because the organization maintains overwhelming Shiite support and the Lebanese government fails to enforce disarmament. Plans for an international security force in Gaza remain vague. 945-1000 Post-Ceasefire Gaza Hostages and Hezbollah Regeneration in Lebanon. David Daoud and Bill Roggio discuss how following the Gaza ceasefire, the process of returning remains of slain hostages remains delayed, which Daoud suggests Hamas uses as leverage to prevent Israel from resuming conflict and entrenching a "post-war mentality." Experts note that Hezbollah is actively regenerating its military capabilities in Lebanon, bypassing disarmament efforts. Despite continuous, targeted Israeli strikes against Hezbollah personnel, there is minimal international condemnation because the organization maintains overwhelming Shiite support and the Lebanese government fails to enforce disarmament. Plans for an international security force in Gaza remain vague. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 NYC Election, Famine Propaganda, and Foreign Influence on Campus. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses the New York City mayoral election, focusing on the populist rise of candidate Zelldin Maamoun, whose anti-Israel stance and lack of economic knowledge threaten the city's large Israeli-founded tech sector. He reveals that a World Health Organization official admitted that promoting "famine" in Gaza was a deliberate communications and political pressure strategy, despite adequate food supply. Hoenlein confirms that Hezbollah is rearming and refashioning ordnance in Lebanon, forcing Israel's hand. University leaders have begun acknowledging that campus unrest was largely foreign-driven, specifically citing Iran. Indonesia is noted as a potential key player in future Abraham Accords. 1015-1030 NYC Election, Famine Propaganda, and Foreign Influence on Campus. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses the New York City mayoral election, focusing on the populist rise of candidate Zelldin Maamoun, whose anti-Israel stance and lack of economic knowledge threaten the city's large Israeli-founded tech sector. He reveals that a World Health Organization official admitted that promoting "famine" in Gaza was a deliberate communications and political pressure strategy, despite adequate food supply. Hoenlein confirms that Hezbollah is rearming and refashioning ordnance in Lebanon, forcing Israel's hand. University leaders have begun acknowledging that campus unrest was largely foreign-driven, specifically citing Iran. Indonesia is noted as a potential key player in future Abraham Accords. 1030-1045 US Military Buildup Near Venezuela and Opposition Support for Action. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss the unprecedented US military buildup at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, interpreted as preparations for action against Venezuela. Peña Esclusa clarifies that the true Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado (who won 93% of the primary vote), supports US action against the Maduro drug cartel. Araújo asserts that this is viewed regionally as a "crusade against organized crime," not an invasion, and would be welcomed by people tired of instability. This credible threat is already pressuring Venezuelan military officials to negotiate Maduro's exiIT. 1045-1100 US Military Buildup Near Venezuela and Opposition Support for Action. Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa discuss the unprecedented US military buildup at the former Roosevelt Roads Naval Base in Puerto Rico, interpreted as preparations for action against Venezuela. Peña Esclusa clarifies that the true Venezuelan opposition, led by María Corina Machado (who won 93% of the primary vote), supports US action against the Maduro drug cartel. Araújo asserts that this is viewed regionally as a "crusade against organized crime," not an invasion, and would be welcomed by people tired of instability. This credible threat is already pressuring Venezuelan military officials to negotiate Maduro's exiIT.THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1115-1130 Russia's New Glide Bombs and Ukraine's Battlefield Crisis at Kurakhove. John Hardie and Bill Roggio discuss how Russia has introduced new, longer-range guided glide bombs (like the UMPK and Grom-E1) that utilize cheap kits or purpose-built designs, offering a cost-effective, more survivable standoff weapon to attack critical infrastructure deep inside Ukraine. Meanwhile, the situation in the key logistics hub of Kurakhove is deteriorating, with Russian infantry infiltrating the city, disrupting crucial drone and mortar positions, and threatening to encircle remaining Ukrainian forces. Russia continues to maintain maximalist peace demands, including a ban on Ukraine joining NATO and demilitarization, resulting in the cancellation of proposed peace talks. 1130-1145 Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence. 1145-1200 Supreme Court, Trade Tariffs, and the Stagnant Order. Alan Tonelson discusses a Supreme Court case challenging the president's tariff powers (the "Liberation Day tariffs"), which he expects the administration to win. Tonelson cites historical deference to presidential foreign policy power and the president's authority to use other well-established tariffing measures, calling arguments against his powers "legally ignorant." The conversation also explores Michael Beckley's theory of a "stagnant order" among superpowers, leading them to act parasitically or defensively. Tonelson disagrees with the stagnation premise for the US, anticipating a major productivity boom thanks to artificial intelligence. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 AI Revolution, Cloud Growth, and the Virtual Cell. Brandon Weichert reports on how AI is driving massive growth in cloud computing, exemplified by Amazon's surging shares and AWS growth, reaching paces "we haven't seen since 2022." Weichert dismisses fears of an "AI crash" as fear-mongering rooted in ignorance and past market bubbles, arguing that AI is sparking new sectors and enhancing productivity across industries. He details the cutting-edge application of AI in creating a "virtual cell"—computer models that simulate cell functions to speed up drug discovery, understand disease mechanisms, and inform scientific investigation. 1215-1230 Iran's Contradictory Nuclear Signals and Proxy Support. Jonathan Schanzer and Bill Roggio discuss how Iran is sending contradictory messages regarding its nuclear enrichment program and negotiations, with President Pezeshkian ("the dove") threatening to restart enrichment. Schanzer explains that "reformists" like Pezeshkian serve as a calculated front to signal openness while building leverage for future talks. Iran appears willing to risk future strikes, believing it can absorb them. However, Iran's ability to significantly rebuild its air defenses is complicated by the risk of UN snapback sanctions potentially deterring Russia and China from supplying advanced systems. Sanctions relief remains a key factor in Iran's proxy support. 1230-1245 UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy. 1245-100 AM UNIFIL's Failure, Hezbollah's Rebuilding, and Syria's Fragmented Future. Edmund Fitton-Brown, Ahmad Sharawi, and Bill Roggio label the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) a "spectacular failure" that allowed Hezbollah's military buildup near the Israeli border. Despite the ceasefire terms requiring demilitarization south of the Litani River, the Lebanese government is stalling. Hezbollah is actively rebuilding its infrastructure, forcing Israel to conduct targeted enforcement actions. They also discuss Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is seeking international legitimacy, sanctions relief, and partners to counter ISIS, even as his state remains domestically fragmented by regional demands for separation or autonomy.
The Trump administration faces a Supreme Court challenge on Wednesday over its use of tariffs, an economic policy that has upended global trade.This case, which has been described by the President in epic terms, questions the legality of Trump's signature economic policy - and poses one of the biggest existential threats to his second term so far. In today's episode, we speak to small business owners across the US, and to BBC business reporter Natalie Sherman, who will be at the Supreme Court this week.Producers: Hannah Moore and Valerio EspositoExecutive producer: James ShieldMix: Travis EvansSenior news editor: China CollinsImage: US President Trump unveils new tariffs on so-called Liberation Day. Jim Lo Scalzo/EPA-EFE/REX/Shutterstock
PREVIEW. The Continuing Power of Presidential Tariffs. Alan Tonelson discusses the Supreme Court's pending oral arguments concerning the president's "Liberation Day tariffs." Tonelson argues the tariffs are likely to stay, and presidential power will continue. Even if the court strikes down the tariffs under the 1977 statute, the president possesses many other established tariffing authorities under US trade law. Retry
On today's podcast:1) President Trump sat down with CBS' 60 Minutes - as heard on Bloomberg Radio - for a long-ranging discussion on the government shutdown, tariffs, and border security. Trump says immigration raids “haven’t gone far enough” despite videos showing physical confrontations among federal agents, immigrants and protesters. Trump also said that he could use the Insurrection Act to use professional military, instead of the National Guard, to US cities “if I wanted to.” The president’s comments come after his administration expanded a federal program that deputizes local police to enforce immigration laws, signing up nearly 16,000 officers across 40 states as part of an effort to boost deportations, according to data reviewed by Bloomberg News. 2) President Trump said he would skip attending the Supreme Court hearing this week over the legality of his worldwide tariffs regime. The court is scheduled on Wednesday to hear Trump’s appeal of a lower court’s ruling that many of his “Liberation Day” tariffs exceeded the president’s emergency power to regulate imports. Trump had said he felt an “obligation” to watch in person as the Supreme Court weighed his power to impose tariffs. If he had attended, he would have been the first sitting president in US history to attend oral arguments at the high court.3) The summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump was a breakthrough in bilateral relationship where the Asian giant was treated as an “equal partner” of the US, according to David Daokui Li, a regular policy adviser to Beijing. Speaking to Bloomberg TV on Monday, Li described a sense of enthusiasm among his peers in Beijing following the leaders’ meeting in South Korea last week. The exchange led to a one-year trade truce, although it didn’t address core differences between the world’s two largest economies.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Europe's Energy Liberation: US Shale Ending Russian Gas Leverage Michael Bernstam with John BatchelorBatchelor highlights the irony that Russia's perceived energy leverage over Europe is dissolving, a dependence once so great that Europeans were said not to be able to turn the lights on without Russian energy. Bernstam declares that natural gas will now be in abundance, ensuring that Russia "never again will there be leverage over Europe." This shift signifies "Liberation Day for natural gas in Europe." The European Union's 19th package of sanctions is scheduled to phase out Russian pipeline gas and Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) completely by the end of 2027, with the majority phased out by the middle of 2026. The United States shale revolution is crucial, producing approximately 270 billion cubic meters of natural gas for export to Europe via established terminals, freeing Europe from Russian energy dependence.
Financial commentator Chris Irons, also known as Quoth the Raven on X and author of the popular Fringe Finance substack, warns we're in "completely off the rails, unprecedented territory" with the Fed trapped between printing money to save markets or allowing deflationary debt defaults. He predicts the Fed will ultimately implement yield curve control to bail out the bond market, pushing America down an emerging market path negative for the dollar—which gold's historic rally is already pricing in. Irons dismisses gold meme stock concerns since central banks are the primary buyers, and argues government spending is politically impossible to cut. Drawing from his background as anonymous short seller "Quoth The Raven," he explains why short sellers face unprecedented challenges as Fed liquidity creates massive distortions—$2 trillion in worthless crypto finds bids while fundamentally sound shorts get squeezed. He believes during April's Liberation Day, markets were "days away from a bond market crisis" when stocks and bonds unusually sold off together. Irons warns a sharp deleveraging event is inevitable though timing is uncertain, offering blunt advice: "Don't listen to anybody, including me" and avoid certainty, because we've never been here before and things can change profoundly overnight.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: X: https://x.com/QTRResearchSubstack: https://quoththeraven.substack.com/Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction & welcome0:36 - Guest introduction: Chris Irons "Quoth The Raven"1:14 - Big picture macro view: unprecedented territory2:19 - Gold's rally & stock market highs2:54 - The 100-year inflationary cycle4:35 - Fed's dual mandate tension5:34 - Upcoming Fed meeting & rate cuts8:00 - Young generation following monetary policy10:00 - Gold16:00 - The debasement trade going mainstream18:40 - Fiscal picture23:00 - Gold, feels we are on the precipice of a big change28:00 - Short selling 43:00 - The ultimate bubble 45:00 - Closing
As the S&P 500 continues to rally, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses three factors that could lead to a stock market correction in the near term.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why we are still in a new bull market even if a correction is likely in the near term. It's Monday, October 20th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. I continue to believe the sharp selloff in April following Liberation Day marked the trough of what was effectively a three-year rolling recession in the U.S. economy. We have written extensively about this view; but it still remains very much out of consensus. Since 2022 most sectors of the private economy have gone through their own individual recession but at different times. The final trough in the rate of change in economic activity came in April around the tariff announcements which came as a surprise to almost everyone, at least in terms of the magnitude and scope. In short, Liberation Day was really capitulation day on the last piece of bad news for the economic cycle which then bottomed. Stocks seem to agree which is why they have rallied in a straight line since then, much like they do after the trough in any economic cycle. The other proof we have for this claim is the v-shaped recovery in earnings revision breadth, something we have discussed for many months in our written research and on this podcast. Based on our numerous conversations with investors, this view remains very unpopular. Instead, most believe the economy and earnings growth for next year are at risk of being lower rather than higher than expected, as I do. Core to my view is that we are now firmly in an inflationary regime since COVID and the implementation of helicopter money to get us out of that crisis. The government has to run it hot to get us out of the massive debt and deficit problem created over the past 20 years. The end result is that investors need to expect hotter but shorter cycles rather than the elongated 10-year cycles we experienced between 1980-2020 when inflation was falling. That means two-year up cycles followed by one-year down cycles for U.S. equity markets, which is exactly what's happened since 2020. We are now in the midst of a new up cycle that began in April. The key thing to understand during this new regime is that inflation is not bad for stocks so long as it's accelerating and the Fed is on the sidelines or easing like in 2020-21, 2023 and now today. Higher inflation means higher earnings growth which is why price earnings multiples are high today. With inflation likely to accelerate next year, stocks are anticipating better earnings growth. In other words, stocks are a hedge against inflation. In fact, relative to gold, high quality stocks may offer a cheaper inflation hedge at this point given their dramatic underperformance to precious metals year-to-date and since 2021. Eventually, inflation will be a problem again for stocks like in 2022 when the Fed has to react by tightening policy, but that's a story for another day. Having said all this, the equity markets are a bit frothy at the moment and so a 10-15 percent correction in the S&P 500 is not only possible but would be normal at this stage of a new bull market. I see three primary reasons for why we could get that in the near term. First, China-U.S. trade relations have recently escalated again, and we are slowly marching toward a November 1st deadline for tariffs on China to go back to Liberation Day levels. While most investors don't want to get sucked into selling at the worst possible time like they did in April, this risk is real and will weigh on stocks if we don't see evidence of a de-escalation in the next few weeks. Second, funding markets have exhibited some signs of increased stress lately. This is likely due to the ongoing quantitative tightening program by the Fed which is draining bank reserves. Should these stresses increase, it could spill over into equities. Third, our earnings revision breadth metric is rolling over now after its historic rise since April. This could continue into earnings season as it's normal to see some retracement from such a high level and tariffs start to flow through from inventories to the income statement. Trade tensions might also weigh on company guidance in the short term. Bottom line, I believe a new bull market began in April with a new rolling economic and earnings recovery that is now quite nascent. However, even new bull markets have corrections along the way, and certain conditions argue we are at risk for the first tradable one since April. Keep your powder dry in the near term for what should be a great buying opportunity, if it arrives. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Our U.S. Public Policy Strategist Ariana Salvatore unpacks how China's announced rare earth export controls and signals of sweeping U.S. tariffs could impact global supply chains, markets and economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist. Today I'll talk about a development keeping markets and investors on alert: a re-escalation of U.S. China trade tensions. It's Friday, October 17th at 10am in New York. Since April, the U.S. and China have been in what we've been calling a very delicate detente. Remember, President Trump paused the additional reciprocal tariffs after Liberation Day. Since then, we've been consistently skeptical that the pause was durable enough to actually allow the U.S. and China to come up with a full-fledged trade agreement. But now we're equally as skeptical that the current escalation will lead to a material disruption in the bilateral relationship. So, what happened last week? China announced stricter export controls on rare earths, which are really critical for manufacturing everything from electric vehicles to defense equipment and advanced electronics. So, in response, the Trump administration on Friday announced a proposed 100 percent tariff, said to go into effect November 1st across all Chinese exports to the U.S. That date matters because that's around the same time that Presidents Trump and Xi were scheduled to meet at the upcoming APEC Summit in South Korea. When we think about this most recent escalation, it's pretty significant because China accounts for about 70 percent of global rare earth mining, and 90 percent of processing and refining. A lot of countries around the world – the U.S. Japan, Korea, and Germany – all rely heavily on these imports from China. And so potential new export controls mean that every economy may have to start negotiating bilaterally with China to secure supplies, which raises the risk of supply chain disruption across Asia, Europe, and the U.S. Looking ahead, we're thinking about four potential scenarios for how the current U.S.-China trade tensions could play out. The most likely outcome, which is our base case, is a return to the recent status quo following a period of rhetorical escalation and likely a reset of expectations heading into this APEC meeting. That's because we think both the U.S. and China would prefer to maintain the existing equilibrium to an abrupt supply chain decoupling. That equilibrium is effectively chips for rare earths. So, the U.S. receives China's rare earths, and then in return the U.S. exports some of its chips to China. But that equilibrium doesn't necessarily mean that the temporary implementation of trade barriers like higher tariffs or more export controls are off the table. The broader trajectory we think will continue to point toward competitive confrontation, which is a bipartisan strategy that encompasses both these traditional trade tactics as well as unilateral domestic investment – either vis-a-vis direct federal spending, or the government taking more stakes in companies involved in these critical industries. So, think things like the IRA, the CHIPS Act, and other bipartisan pieces of legislation. So, in the near and medium term, expect to see these trade barriers persisting and a bipartisan push toward U.S. industrial policy, as the U.S. attempts to undergo selective de-risking from China. Our base case scenario anticipates further short-term tensions, but ultimately a limited agreement that avoids deep structural changes. We've also thought through some alternate scenarios. So, in one downside case, you could see temporary escalation past November 1st. Both sides could fully implement their proposed policies, but after doing so, come back to the status quo once the economic costs become apparent. A more severe downside scenario involves durable escalation. So, in this case, we would see both countries maintain trade barriers for an extended period. That outcome would see both the U.S. and China decide to change calculus on that equilibrium, so that no longer holds. And in that case, we could see a push toward decoupling and a significant strain on supply chains. Finally, our last scenario reflects a quick de-escalation in which heightened rhetoric actually acts as a catalyst for renewed negotiations and a potential framework agreement that could result in some tariffs, but most likely at lower levels than initially proposed. So, what does this all mean? In the base case, our economists expect China's GDP growth to slow to below 4.5 percent in the second half of 2025, with exports supported by robust non-U.S. shipments. Our equity strategists in this outcome see the volatility actually providing a dip buying opportunity, given that they see a rolling recovery that began earlier this year. However, a more durable escalation could possibly prolong China's deflation and necessitate further policy adjustments. Similarly, that outcome could negate the early cycle rolling recovery thesis here in the U.S. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Eric and Matt break down a strong third quarter that saw the S&P 500 climb 10%, leaving Liberation Day's tariff chaos behind. They explore the growing divide between wealthy asset owners feeling great and everyone else struggling with inflation, while examining why bonds are pricing in Fed rate cuts even as stocks surge. The conversation turns to the private markets boom and whether opening up private equity to retail 401(k) investors is a good idea or a disaster waiting to happen. Eric shares why AI companies are burning massive amounts of capital with unclear returns, yet may be impossible to bet against if they build a cult-like following. They note that credit markets still look healthy despite late-cycle warning signs, making this moment particularly unusual. A straightforward look at where we are in this cycle and what actually matters as we head into year-end. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:30) Economic Structures and Consumer Demand (00:04:34) Tariffs and Their Impact on the Economy (00:05:10) Travel and Leisure Sector Post-COVID (00:07:44) Bond Market and Federal Reserve Actions (00:16:34) Private Equity and Market Trends (00:22:24) Retirement Funds and 401(k) Investments (00:25:04) Concerns Over New Investment Vehicles (00:26:51) Debates on Private and Public Assets (00:30:14) Religious Investor Bases and Market Dynamics (00:31:54) AI and Its Impact on Markets (00:41:46) Social Media and Market Sentiment (00:44:04) Concluding Thoughts on Markets and Society Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
How reliant is the US economy on the AI investment boom? It's a question Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing keeps getting in client meetings. On this episode of The Weekly Briefing, he tells David Wilder why there's more to the story than hype around a new technology. Neil also explains why France faces a political – but not an economic – crisis, and what to make of China's toughest moves yet to control rare earth exports.Also on the show, six months after Liberation Day, Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann assesses how predictions of the dollar's demise have played out and unpacks the market's striking response to Japan's new LDP leader.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Watch: US Outlook – Weighing the AI boom, labour constraints and the Fed's next chapterRead: China tightens its grip on rare earths (again)Register: Markets Drop-In: Asset Allocation in 2026 – Why we don't think the AI equities boom is overRead: Japan coalition talksRead: What would PM Takaichi mean for Japan?
learn about the Liberation Day
Six months after Trump declared “Liberation Day,” tariff revenues are up, and major US investment pledges are rolling in. But at the same time, costs are rising, and global sourcing strategies are shifting fast. This week, the Zero100 team explores reshoring readiness, friendshoring alternatives, and the role of AI and robotics in turning volatility into opportunity, outlining the steps supply chain leaders must take to build resilience in a reshaped global market. Featuring: Chief Research Officer Kevin O'Marah, VP, Research, Geraint John, and Principal Analyst Caroline Chumakov. Breaking down Trump's tariff playbook (00:05) What the numbers really say about trade deficits and tax revenue (02:01) Moving manufacturing back to the US: Political theater or a real shift? (03:38) The roadblocks slowing a reshoring push (10:17) Non-stop negotiation: How global trade partners are reacting (15:44) Inflation, resilience, and what supply chain leaders must prepare for next (19:14) Trump's tariffs: a win or a miss? (25:01)
Global equities have had a good run since the Liberation Day jitters in April, with Japan and South Africa being standout markets. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International says markets are awaiting the next moves, but clouding the outlook has been the US government shutdown, which meant that the September jobs numbers could not be released. September inflation data could also be delayed. Meanwhile South Africa's PMI numbers are improving, which should have a positive Impact on GDP. Investec Focus Radio SA
Een primeur in BNR Beurs: we hebben het over nieuws dat er niet is. Het cijferrapport dat er niet is, om precies te zijn. Beleggers zijn er als de kippen bij als het om arbeidsmarktcijfers gaat in de VS. Die informatie is goud waard, want de centrale bank gebruikt ze om het rentebeleid op te baseren. Maar met de overheidsdiensten daar in shutdown, moeten Jerome Powell het even zonder doen. Beleggers leven voor nu maar even naar het principe 'geen nieuws is goed nieuws'. Maar hoe verstandig is dat? Dat zoeken we deze aflevering uit. Verder hebben we het over dingen die wél gebeurden. Zoals Europa die eens een keer het initiatief neemt als het op heffingen aankomt. De EU wil importheffingen op staal verhogen naar 50 procent om de industrie hier te helpen. Het gaat ook nog over de opvolger van Christine Lagarde. De baas van de ECB zegt namelijk zelf dat ze het wel ziet zitten als ene Klaas Knot dat wordt. Die heeft natuurlijk zijn handen vrij, nu zijn termijn als president bij De Nederlandsche Bank erop zit. We vertellen je of de opvolging daarmee bezegeld is.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
En de slimme bril gaat 'm vervangen. Dat is de conclusie bij Apple. Die schuiven zelfs andere projecten aan de kant om nu zo snel mogelijk een eigen slimme bril te maken. Eentje die kan concurreren met die van Meta. Mark Zuckerberg presenteerde een paar weken geleden nog trots zijn eigen versie, en stelde dat de smartphone op z'n einde loopt. Maar als Zuckerberg al zo'n bril in de winkels heeft liggen, is Apple dan niet per definitie veel te laat? Moeten ze de inhaalrace eigenlijk nog wel inzetten? Dat bespreken we deze aflevering. Dan hebben we het ook over Prosus. Vandaag zal als een succes de boeken in gaan. Bijna alle aandeelhouders van Just Eat Takeaway stemden in met de overname door Prosus. En de kersverse eigenaar laat er geen gras over groeien. Het kondigt meteen aan de nodige veranderingen in het bedrijf te gaan maken. Maar wat zijn die? En verder was er nog meer reden voor feest. Op de AEX werden namelijk nieuwe hoogtes bereikt. Eindelijk staan we weer boven het niveau van vlak voor Liberation Day. Dus kijken we hoe ver weg die 1000-puntengrens nog is.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
This week, the Money Wise guys review a quieter stretch for Wall Street, with all three major indexes slightly down. The Dow is off 68 points (-0.1%), the S&P 500 is down 21 points (-0.3%), and the NASDAQ down 147 points (-0.7%). Despite the dip, year-to-date numbers remain strong: Dow up 8.7%, S&P up 13%, and NASDAQ up 16.4%. The big focus was Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which came in line with expectations at 2.9% core inflation year-over-year. While inflation remains “sticky,” the guys emphasize that dire predictions about tariffs causing runaway inflation haven't materialized. They also revisit April's “Liberation Day” selloff, pointing out that their decision not to sell, and even to buy during the dip, has proven wise, as April 8 may stand as the market low of the year. The discussion also highlights how volatility this year has matched expectations, but downturns like this week's have mostly drawn out “doom and gloom” commentary rather than lasting market damage. They caution listeners not to get spooked by exaggerated comparisons to past bubbles, especially with markets still near record highs. Sticky Inflation Sticky inflation was a big theme in this week's episode, especially as the crew dug into the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. While the headline numbers came in right on expectations, the fact that inflation is still running at 2.9% year-over-year shows that it hasn't fallen quickly back to the Fed's 2% target. As the team pointed out, this “stickiness” doesn't necessarily stem from tariffs, as the financial press often claims, but from the service side of the economy, areas like housing, healthcare, and everyday services that don't adjust as easily as goods prices. For investors, it means the Federal Reserve may feel compelled to keep rates higher for longer, even if some market voices argue for cuts. The takeaway: while markets rallied earlier this year on hopes of easing inflation, the persistence of sticky inflation keeps monetary policy and volatility in the spotlight. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys dive into all things 401(K) Rollovers. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.
WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of the slide deck by clicking the blue Download button below.For the past month or so we have been pushing back on the “oil glut” narrative and the pervasive oil gloom that has existed really since Liberation Day in early April of this year, which coincided with news of an accelerated unwind of OPEC quota cuts. Another week has gone by. We are now nearly at the end of September and firmly in the post summer, pre-winter “shoulder months” period for refinery runs that in prior periods of weak balances has seen crude soften. At least through the September 24th recording date of this video, crude oil prices are hanging in there around the mid-$60s.This week we check-in on where traditional energy stands in terms of growth and profitability, which are the drivers of absolute and relative equity performance. As we have previously noted, the biggest challenge the sector faces is not unfavorable narratives from leading macro agencies or environmental activists, but a now nearly 2-year period of EPS underperformance and a softening in profitability metrics. Our two key messages this week are (1) we believe we are now much closer to the trough of what we think has been a 2-2.5-year mini-downcycle following peak oil prices seen immediately after the start of the Russia-Ukraine War in 2022. and (2) As a result of where current profitability is and where we think it is headed in coming years, Energy should close the gap between its current discounted 3% market cap weighting in favor of its 5% earnings weighting in the S&P 500.It remains our view that 2020 marked the bottom of a structural downcycle that began in 2008 and that 2025 will ultimately prove to be year 5 of a structurally better period for profitability that we expect to last through at least the end of this decade. We reiterate our long-standing call that the energy sector will return to a market cap weighting in the S&P 500 closer to its historic 8%-10% range.
Axel Merk, CIO and founder of Merk Investments with nearly $3 billion in AUM, shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and gold's surge to record highs. In this episode, Merk explains how "fringe" fiscal sustainability concerns have moved mainstream, driving gold to new highs above $3,700. He provides a gold mining primer, distinguishing between speculative junior miners and established producers, while focusing on developers with proven management teams as the "scarcest resource." Merk criticizes the Fed's evolution into micromanaging the economy through its "toolkit," arguing this creates inefficient capital allocation and enables political irresponsibility. He notes gold's correlation breakdown due to dollar weaponization and sees continued upside potential, though warns against overexposure, emphasizing that the best investment advice is to "invest in yourself" and control spending.This episode is sponsored by Monetary Metals. Visit https://monetary-metals.com/juliaLinks:https://www.merkinvestments.com/https://x.com/axelmerkTimestamps: 0:00 Welcome and introduction - Axel Merk returns after 6 months0:38 AUM growth from $2B to $3B reflects gold space interest1:29 Liberation Day framework - tariffs impact financial flows3:04 Fringe views moving mainstream amid elevated valuations3:49 Long-term fiscal sustainability concerns driving gold investment6:08 Fed micromanaging economy enables political irresponsibility7:47 Gold's parabolic rise - perception vs reality of "barbarous relic"10:23 Gold mining dynamics - junior miners haven't had explosive rally yet13:10 Gold Mining 101 - conservative vs speculative investor profiles15:23 Big miners' over/under-investment cycle post-financial crisis17:19 Developer focus - scarcest resource is good management18:31 Junior vs major miners - venture capitalists with hard hats21:14 Gold correlation breakdown - weaponization changed dynamics24:37 Fed micromanagement critique - toolkit means intervention26:48 Inefficient capital allocation favors big companies27:58 Preventing recessions vs natural business cycles31:58 Gold as 20-year hedge - glad you had it in hindsight32:32 Silver complexity - industrial use creates volatility36:02 Investment advice - invest in yourself first, control spending
Our CIO Mike Wilson joins U.S. Equity strategist Andrew Pauker to answer frequently asked questions about their latest economic outlook, including how U.S. equities are transitioning to a new bull market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today we're going to try something a little different. I have my colleague, Andrew Pauker from the U.S. Equity Strategy Team here to discuss some of the client questions and feedback to our views. It's Monday, September 22nd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Andrew, we constantly deal with client questions on our views. More recently, the questions have been focused on our view that we've transitioned from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery in a new bull market. Secondarily, it's about the tension between the equity market's need for speed and how fast the Fed will actually cut rates. Finally, why is accelerating inflation potentially good for equities? Where do you want to start? Andrew Pauker: Mike, in my conversations with clients, the main debate seems to be around whether the labor cycle and earnings recession are behind us or in front of us. Walk us through our take here and why we think the rolling recession ended with Liberation Day and that we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. Mike Wilson: So, just to kind of level set, you know, we've had this view that – and starting in 2022 with the payback and the COVID demand. And from the pull forward – that began, what we call, a rolling recession. It started with the technology sector and consumer goods, where the demand was most extreme during the lockdowns. And then of course we've had recessions in housing, manufacturing, and other areas in commodities. Transportation. It's been very anemic growth, if any growth at all, as the economy has been sort of languishing. And what's been strong has been AI CapEx, consumer services, and government. And what we noticed in the first quarter, and we actually called for this almost a year ago. We said now what we need is a government recession as part of the finishing move. And in fact, Doge was the catalyst for that. We highlighted that back in January, but we didn't know exactly how many jobs were lost from Doge's efforts in the first quarter. But we got that data recently. And we saw an extreme spike, and it actually sort of finished the rolling recession. Even AI CapEx had a deceleration starting in the summer of 2024. Something else that we've been highlighting and now we're seeing pockets of weakness even in consumer services. So, we feel like the rolling recession has rolled through effectively the entire economy. In addition to the labor data that now is confirming – that we've had a pretty extreme reduction in jobs, and of course the revisions are furthering that. But what we saw in the private sector is also confirming our suspicions that the rolling recession's over. The number one being earnings revision breath, something we've written about extensively. And we've rarely seen this kind of a V-shaped recovery coming out of Liberation Day, which of course was the final blow to the earnings revisions lower because that made companies very negative and that fed through to earnings revisions. The other things that have happened, of course, is that Doge, you know, did not continue laying people off. And also, we saw the weaker dollar and the AI CapEx cycle bottom in April. And those have also affected kind of a more positive backdrop for earnings growth. And like I said before, this is a very rare occurrence to see this kind of a V-shape recovery and earnings revision breaths. The private economy, in fact, is finally coming out of its earnings recession, which has been in now for three years. Andrew Pauker: And I would just add a couple of other variables as well in terms of evidence that we're seeing the rolling recovery take hold, and that Liberation Day was kind of the punctuation or the culmination of the rolling recession, and we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. So, number one, positive operating leverage is causing our earnings models to inflect sharply higher here. Median stock EPS growth, which had been negative for a lot of the 2022 to 2024 period is now actually turning positive. It's currently positive 6 percent now. The rolling correlation between equity returns and inflation break evens is also now significantly positive. That's classic early cycle. That's something we saw, you know, post COVID, post GFC And then lastly, just in terms of the market internals and kind of what, you know, under the surface, the equity market is telling us. So, the cyclical defensive ratio was down about 50 percent into the April lows. That's now up 50 percent from Liberation Day and is kind of breaking the downtrend that began in April of 2024. So, in addition to the earnings revisions V-shaped recovery that you mentioned, Mike. Those are a couple of other variables as well that are confirming that we're moving towards an early cycle backdrop and that the ruling recovery is commencing. Okay. So, we had the FOMC meeting. As expected the Fed delivered a 25 basis point cut. Mike, what's your read on the meeting as it relates to equities and the reaction function? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean this is really what we expected along with the consensus. We didn't have a different view that the Fed would give us 50. They gave us 25, and some people have characterized this as sort of a hawkish cut and very different than what we saw a year ago when the Fed kicked off that part of the rate cutting cycle with 50 basis points because they probably were worried a bit more about the labor market than they were about inflation. But you know, ultimately we think the labor data is going to get worse or the payroll data will prove to be worse because of the delay between the Doge layoffs and when those folks can file for unemployment insurance, which should be in October. And it's that delayed data that will then get the Fed cutting in earnest, which is what's necessary for the full rotation to kind of the lower quality parts of the market. So, while you're right that we've seen cyclicals perform, they haven't performed in the same way that we've seen prior cycles, like in 2020 or [20]08-[20]09, because the Fed hasn't cut. They're very far behind the curve. If you buy into our thesis that, you know, we had a rolling recession, we had an employment cycle, and they should be much more generous here. So that tension between the Fed's delay to get ahead of the curve and the market's need for speed to get there sooner and more deliberately – is where we think that, you know, we have to wait for that to occur to get the full rotation to the lower quality, kind of really cyclical parts of the market. Andrew Pauker: Okay, so let's talk about the back end of the yield curve a little bit and why that's important for stocks. In my dialogue with investors, there's a lot of focus here, just given what happened last fall when the Fed cut at the front end and the back end of the yield curve move higher. How should market participants think about this dynamic? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, I think this is an unknown known, if you will, because we saw this last fall. Where the Fed cut 100 basis points and the back end of the 10-year and 30-year Treasury market sold off. That's the first time we've ever seen that in history, where the Fed cuts that aggressively and the backend moves out. And this is a function of just all the fiscal imbalances and the debt issues that we face. And this is not a new issue. So, I think it remains to be seen if the bond market is going to be comfortable with the Fed not ignoring the 2 percent target – but you know, letting it run hot. As we've said, we think ultimately, they will have to let it run hot and they will, because that's what we need to have a chance at getting out of the debt problem. And so that sort of risk is still out in the future. I have less concern about that more recently because of the way the backend of the bond market has traded. But it's something that we need to keep in the back of our mind. If yields were to go back to 4.50, which is our key level, then that would be a problem as long as we're below, you know, sort of 4.50 and we're well below that now we're close to 4, I don't think this is a problem at all. Andrew Pauker: Yeah. One of the points that our colleague in rate strategy Matt Hornbach has highlighted is that the difference between now and the fourth quarter of last year when we saw that dynamic play out was that, you know, the bond market was very focused on the uncertainty around the fiscal situation. You know, we were going into an election, there was a fair amount of uncertainty around what Trump would do from a fiscal standpoint.And now, that is a known known, you know. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill signed into law. We know what the deficit impact is, so there is more clarity for the bond market on that front. So that is one key difference now versus last fall and why we may not see the same kind of reaction in the rates market. Mike, you brought up, kind of, run it hot, which was the title of our note from a couple of weeks ago. I just wanted to get your take on why some inflation coming back is actually a positive for equities and why actually the deceleration that we've seen in inflation over the last couple years is one reason why earnings for small cap indices, for instance, have deteriorated so much. And so, for in this environment where the Fed is perhaps a bit more tolerant of inflation in 2026, why that's actually a positive for equities. Mike Wilson: This is just an underappreciated sort of factoid that we actually identified back in 2020 and [20]21 as well. That when inflation is accelerating, that's a sign that pricing power is pretty good. And we actually see broader earnings. In fact, the best year for earnings, not just small caps, but the – call it the equal weighted S&P 500 was 2021. And that was the year where obviously inflation was really getting out of control. That was just pure profit for a lot of these businesses. And so – earnings will be better. Our call over the next 12 months is not about multiples or the Fed so much, but that we think earnings are going to end up being better than people expect because (a) we've been through this three-year earnings recession. There's a ton of pent-up demand. Okay? And now inflation is reaccelerating as demand comes back. And that is actually going to fall to the bottom line. So not only is that good for stocks, okay, but it's actually, it's also why the equity risk premium can be lower. Because if you want to hedge that risk of inflation moving higher, well then you should be willing to accept a lower equity risk premium relative to what is actually a pretty good base rate for 10-year yields, close to 2 percent on a real basis. So, you know, that's why the equity risk premium can stay low and why stocks can accrue at a, you know, pretty high PE multiple as these earnings come through better than expected. And one of the reasons is that inflation actually is accelerating in some of these areas where it's been deflationary. Andrew Pauker: Lastly, Mike, you know, you brought this up briefly. I want to address rotations under the surface of the market. We took off our large cap buys a few weeks ago, and as you mentioned, kind of signaled our intention – to get more constructive on small caps later this year in the fourth quarter. Can you specifically kind of walk through the signpost that we're waiting for before pressing the long, small cap trade here? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, we've probably… This is probably one of the areas we've done a really good job of just, you know, staying away from the fray. Meaning that, you know, we've been underweight small caps for really four years, and they've underperformed that entire time. I think the thing that we've been really patient about is just waiting for the Fed to lower rates to a level that's more conducive for these businesses that (a) need to obviously recap themselves, but then the cost of capital is just too high. So that's number one. But , at the end of the day, I mean, that should translate into better earnings revisions and that also has lagged. So, it's a combination of the two. The Fed getting ahead of the curve, which I would define as fed funds at least equal to two-year Treasury yields, but hopefully below two-year Treasury yields. Right now, we're about 60-65 basis points still above two-year yields . And then the second one is this ‘earnings your vision breadth on a relative basis. Small over large. It is trying to turn up now. It's been in a straight downtrend really for the last, you know, four years. And so those two together will affect a more robust relative outperformance. And just to be clear, small caps have done really well since Liberation Day, okay. So, in absolute terms, it's been great. It's just the relative trade has not really worked yet. That's where we're going to leave this conversation. Thanks for speaking with me, Andrew, to explain some of the thinking behind our calls. To our listeners, thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful, and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. If you think Thoughts on the Market is worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.
Africa was especially hard hit by Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, which ended years of duty-free access to the U.S. and triggered a rush to find new markets. China's announcement that it will remove all tariffs on African imports undoubtedly provides some relief, but it shouldn't be the only answer, say experts. India, Southeast Asia, and Japan all offer tremendous opportunities for African exporters, if they know how to break into these markets. Géraud traveled from Mauritius to Singapore to join a conversation at the Centre for African Studies at Nanyang Technological University, where he was joined by the center's director Amit Jain and Veda Vaidyanathan, a fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress in New Delhi, for a lively conversation on the future of Africa-Asia relations beyond China. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: X: @ChinaGSProject | @eric_olander | @christiangeraud Facebook: www.facebook.com/ChinaAfricaProject YouTube: www.youtube.com/@ChinaGlobalSouth Now on Bluesky! Follow CGSP at @chinagsproject.bsky.social FOLLOW CGSP IN FRENCH: www.projetafriquechine.com | @AfrikChine JOIN US ON PATREON! Become a CGSP Patreon member and get all sorts of cool stuff, including our Week in Review report, an invitation to join monthly Zoom calls with Eric & Cobus, and even an awesome new CGSP Podcast mug! www.patreon.com/chinaglobalsouth
LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims tariffs will pay down America's debt—but the numbers tell a very different story. In this episode:The real difference between deficits and debt (and why Washington hides it)How Trump's “Liberation Day” tariffs added $2 trillion in new debtWhy endless deficits make paying down anything impossible
Today, guest host Ben Whedon welcomes Dave Bozell, president of the Media Research Center, to discuss the aftermath of the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk. We analyze the media's response, particularly focusing on MSNBC's controversial coverage and the implications of political bias in journalism. Bozell shares his insights on the current state of cable news, the challenges of reporting in a charged political environment, and the impact of media narratives on public perception. Later, Ben sits down with Congressman Nathaniel Moran from Texas to discuss the implications of Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs and the ongoing judicial battles surrounding them. Congressman Moran shares insights into the separation of powers, the role of federal judges, and the legislative efforts being made to address the national debt through the Trust Act. He also reflects on the dynamics of the House and Senate, the challenges of fiscal conservatism, and the importance of bipartisan cooperation in crafting effective policy. Finally, Ben engages in conversation with AMAC's Bobby Charles, the former Assistant Secretary of State and current frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the governorship of Maine. Bobby shares his insights on the political landscape of Maine, discussing the challenges the state faces, including high property taxes, drug trafficking, and the struggle of young people to find affordable housing. He emphasizes the need for a sea change in leadership and outlines his plans to restore hope and opportunity for all Mainers.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference. So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle. Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum. And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front? Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth. Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable. And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline growth here is effectively zero. Michelle Weaver: And how does power play into the reshoring story? AI and data centers are generating huge demand for power that well outstrip supply. Is there a risk that companies that want to reshore are not able to do so because of the power constraints?Christopher Snyder: It's a great question. I think it's part of the reason that this is moving more slowly. The companies that sell this power equipment tend to prioritize the data center customers given their scale in magnitude of buying. But ultimately, we think this is coming and it's a big opportunity for U.S. power to extend the upcycle.Manufacturing accounts for 26 percent of the electricity in the country. Data center accounts for about 5 percent. So, if the industrial economy returns to growth, there will be a huge pull on the grid; and I view it as a competitive advantage. If you think about the future of U.S. manufacturing, we're simply taking labor out and replacing it with electricity. That is a phenomenal trade off for the U.S. And a not as positive trade off for a lot of low-cost regions who essentially export labor to the world. I'm sure Adam will have more to say about that. Michelle Weaver: And Adam, I want to bring robotics and humanoid specifically into this conversation as the U.S.' technological edge is a big part of the reshoring story. So how do humanoids fit into reshoring? How much would they cost to use and how could they make American manufacturing more attractive? Adam Jonas: Humanoid robots – we're talking age agentic robots that make decisions from themselves autonomously due to the dual purpose in the military. You know, dual purpose aspect of it makes it absolutely necessary to onshore the technologies.At the same time, humanoid robots actually make it possible to onshore those technologies. Meaning you need; we're not going to be able to replicate manufacturing and onshore manufacturing the way it's currently done in China with their environmental practices and their labor – availability of affordable cheap human labor.Autonomous robots are both the cause of onshoring. And the effect of onshoring at the same time, and it's going to transform every industry. The question isn't so much as which industry will autonomous robots, including humanoids impact? It's what will it not.And we have not yet been able to find anything that it would. When you think about cost to use – we think by 2040 we get to a point where to Chris's point, the marginal cost of work will be some factor of electricity, energy, and some depreciation of that physical plant, or the physical robot itself. And we come up with a, a range of scenarios where centered on around $5 per hour. If that can replace two human workers at $25 an hour, that can NPV to around $200,000 of NPV per humanoid. That's discounting back 15 years from 2040.Michelle, there's 160 million people in the U.S. labor market, so if you just substituted 1 percent of that or 1.6 million people out of the U.S. Labor pool. 1.6 million times $200,000 NPV; that's $320 billion of value, which is worth, well, quite a lot. Quite a lot of money to a lot of companies that are working on this. So, when we get asked, what are we watching, well, in terms of the bleeding edge of the robot revolution, we're watching the Sino-U.S. competition. And I prefer to call it competition. And we're also watching the terra cap companies, the Mag 7 type companies that are quite suddenly and recently and very, very significantly going after physical AI and robotics talent. And increasingly even manufacturing talent. So again, to circle back to Chris's point, if you want evidence of reshoring and manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in this country, look at some of these TMT and tech and AI companies in California. And look at, go on their hiring website and watch all the manufacturing and robotics people that they're trying to hire; and pay a lot of money to do so. And that might be an interesting indicator of where we're going.Michelle Weaver: I want to dig in a little bit more there. We're seeing a lot of the cutting-edge tech coming out of China. Is the U.S. going to be able to catch up?Adam Jonas: Uh, I don't know. I don't know. But I would say what's our alternative. We either catch up enough to compete or we're up for grabs. OK?I would say from our reading and working closely with our team in China, that in many aspects of supply chain, manufacturing, physical AI, China is ahead. And with the passage of time, they are increasingly ahead. We estimate, and we can't be precise here, that China's lead on the U.S. would not only last three to five years, but might even widen three to five years from now. May even widen at an accelerating rate three to five years from now.And so, it brings into play is what kind of environment and what kind of regulatory, and policy decisions we made to help kind of level the playing field and encourage the right kind of manufacturing. We don't want to encourage trailing edge, Victorian era manufacturing in the U.S. We want to encourage, you know, to skate to where the puck is going technology that can help improve our world and create a sustainable abundance rather than an unsustainable one. And so, we're watching China very, very closely. It makes us a little bit; makes me a little bit kind of nervous when we – if we see the government put the thumb on the scale too much.But it's invariably going to happen. You're going to have increased involvement of whichever administration it is in order to kind of set policies that can encourage innovation, education of our young people, repurposing of labor, you know. All these people making machines in this country now. They might get, there may be a displacement over a number of years, if not a generation.But we need those human bodies to do other things in this economy as well. So, we; I don't want to give the impression at all in our scenarios that we don't need people anymore. Michelle Weaver: What are the opportunities and the risks that you see for investors as robotics converges with this broader U.S. manufacturing story? Adam Jonas: Well, Michelle, we see both opportunities and risks. There are the opportunities that you can measure in terms of what portion of global GDP of [$]115 trillion could you look at. I mean, labor alone is $40 trillion.And if you really make humanoid that can do the work of two workers, guess what? You're not going to stop at [$]40 trillion. You're going to go beyond that. You might go multiple beyond that. Talking about the world before AI, robotics and humanoid is like talking about the world before electricity. Or talking about business before the internet. We don't think we're exaggerating, but the proof will be in the capital formation. And that's where we hope we can be of assistance to our clients working together on a variety of investment ideas. But the risks will come and it is our professional responsibility, if not our moral responsibility, to work with our partners across research to talk about those risks. Michelle, if we have labor displacement, go too quickly, there's serious problems. And if you don't, if you don't believe me, go look at, look at you know, the French Revolution or the Industrial Revolution, or Age of Enlightenments. Ages of scientific enlightenment frequently cohabitate times of great social and political turmoil as well. And so, we think that these risks must be seen in parallel if we want to bring forth technologies that can make us more human rather than less human. I'm sorry if I'm coming across as a little preachy, but if you studied robots and labor all day long, it does have that effect on you. So, Michelle, how do you see innovation priorities changing for industrials and investors in this environment?Michelle Weaver: I think it's huge as we're seeing AI and technology broadly diffuse across different segments of the market, it's only becoming more important. About two-thirds of companies at the conference mentioned AI in some way, shape, or form. We know that from transcripts. And we're seeing them continue to integrate AI into their businesses. They're trying to go beyond what we've just seen at the initial edge. So, for example, if I think about what was going on within AI adoption a couple years ago, it was largely adding a chat bot to your website that's then able to handle a lot of customer service inquiries. Maybe you could reduce the labor there a little bit. Now we're starting to see a lot more business specific use cases. So, for example, with an airline, an airline company is using AI to most optimally gate different planes as they're landing to try and reduce connection times. They know which staff needs to go to another flight to connect, which passengers need to move to another flight. They're able to do that much more efficiently. You're seeing a lot on AI being adopted within manufacturing to make manufacturing processes a lot more seamless. So, I think innovation is only going to continue to become more important to not only industrials, but broadly the entire market as well.Clearly the industry is being shaped by adaptability, collaboration, and a focus on innovation. So, Chris, Adam, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Adam Jonas: Always a pleasure. Michelle.Christopher Snyder: Thank you for having us on. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
As we head towards the end of the year, financial markets are caught between fading growth and expectations regarding monetary policy. How should investors navigate financial markets in the final months of 2025, and where do we see the sweet spots?In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Julius Baer's Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day, what they expect from the Fed and the ECB for the rest of the year, and the current global opportunities for investors, particularly, but not only, in the equity and fixed income space.(00:32) - Introduction of topic and speakers (01:12) - Macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day (02:10) - Asia's macroeconomic picture (05:05) - Year-end headline research calls (05:39) - Developed-market equity preferences (06:09) - Breaking away from the ‘US only' mindset (06:42) - Emerging market equity sweet spots (08:26) - Where to find value in fixed income (09:10) - Commodities outlook (11:06) - US dollar set to weaken? (11:46) - Dealing with tariff news (12:45) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses the outlook for U.S. stocks after Friday's nonfarm payroll data reinforced the thesis of a transition from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing Friday's Payroll report and what it means for equities. It's Monday, Sept 8th at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it. The heavily anticipated nonfarm payroll report on Friday supports our view that the labor market is weak. However, this is old news to the equity market as we have been discussing for months. First, the labor market data is perhaps the most backward-looking of all the economic series. Second, it's particularly prone to major revisions that tend to make the current data unreliable in real time, which is why the National Bureau of Economic Research typically declares a recession started at a time when most were unaware we were in one. Furthermore, history suggests these revisions are pro-cyclical, meaning they get more negative going into a recession and then more positive once the recovery's begun. It appears this time is no different. Indeed, Friday's revisions were better than last month's by a wide margin suggesting the labor market bottomed in the second quarter. This insight adds support to our primary thesis on the economy and markets that I have been maintaining for the past several years. More specifically, I believe a rolling recession began in 2022 and finally bottomed in April with the tariff announcements made on “Liberation Day.” After the initial phase of this rolling recession, that was led by a payback in Covid pull-forward demand in tech and consumer goods, other sectors of the economy went through their own individual recessions at different times. This is a key reason why we never saw the typical spike in the metrics used to define a traditional recession, although the revisions data is now revealing it more clearly. The historically significant rise in immigration post-covid and subsequent enforcement this year have also led to further distortions in many of these labor market measures. While we have written about these topics extensively over the past several years, Friday's weak labor report provides further evidence of our thesis that we are now transitioning from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. In short, we're entering a new cycle environment and the Fed cutting interest rates will be key to the next leg of the new bull market that began in April. Central to our view is the notion that the economy has been much weaker for many companies and consumers over the past 3 years than what the headline economic statistics like nominal GDP or employment suggest. We think a better way to measure the health of the economy is earnings growth, and breadth; as well as consumer and corporate confidence surveys. Perhaps the simplest way to determine if an economy is doing well or not is to ask: is it delivering prosperity broadly? On that score, we think the answer is “no” given the fact that earnings growth has been negative for most companies over the past 3 years. The good news is that growth has finally entered positive territory the past 2 quarters. This coincides with the v-shaped recovery in earnings revisions breadth we have been highlighting for months. We think this supports the notion that the worst of the rolling recession is behind us and likely troughed in April. As usual, equity markets got this right and bottomed then, too. Now, we think a proper rate cutting cycle is likely and necessary for the next leg of this new bull market. Given the risk that the Fed may still be focused on inflation more than the weakness in the lagging labor market data, rate cuts may materialize more slowly than what equity investors want. Combined with some signs that liquidity may be drying up a bit as both corporate and Treasury issuance increases, it would not surprise me if equity markets go through some consolidation or even a correction during the seasonally weak time of the year. Should that happen, we would be buyers of that dip and likely even consider moving down the quality curve in anticipation of a more dovish Fed and coordinated action with the Treasury. Bottom line, a new bull market for equities began with the trough in the rolling recession that began in 2022. It's still early days for this new bull which means dips should be bought. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, we cover new revelations about the Minneapolis trans shooter's family and manifesto, fresh polling on Trump's crime crackdown, a major court battle over tariffs, and Trump's firing spree across the federal government. From tragic lessons in Minnesota to seismic fights in Washington, today's brief connects crime, economics, and politics shaping America's future. Trans Shooter's Family Secrets and Final Words: Robert Westman's manifesto admitted, “Gender and weed f***'ed up my head… I wish I never tried experimenting with either.” He blamed his father for pushing him into transitioning and his mother for warning he would regret it, writing, “You were right mama, but the way you handled it led me to wanting to kill so so many people.” Bryan calls it proof of medical quackery, marijuana's dangers, and adults failing a child into madness. Trump's Crime Crackdown Gains Support: A new AP poll shows 53 percent of Americans approve of Trump's approach, with DC Mayor Muriel Bowser conceding his surge “worked” after carjackings fell 87 percent. She added, “When carjackings go down, neighborhoods feel safer and are safer.” In Chicago, Mayor Brandon Johnson signed an order to resist federal forces, but courts say Trump's deployments are legal under the Insurrection Act. Court Battle Over Trump's Tariffs: An appeals court struck down Trump's sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs under IEEPA, setting up a Supreme Court fight in October. Trump warned, “If allowed to stand, this Decision would literally destroy the United States of America.” Meanwhile, Trump ended the $800 “de minimis” exemption, slashing it to $200 and rocking supply chains. Some small retailers warn they will go bust, while U.S. tomato growers and flatware makers report new life under tariff protections. Trump Fires Federal Employees and Questions Vaccines: From the EPA to the DOJ to the CIA, Trump is firing staff en masse. At the CDC, he broke from his past support for Operation Warp Speed, declaring, “It is very important that the Drug Companies justify the success of their various Covid Drugs… I want the answer, and I want it NOW.” Meanwhile, Tulsi Gabbard's revocation of 37 security clearances included a CIA officer just promoted undercover, abruptly ending her 30-year career. Bryan says Trump is cutting with “a chainsaw, not a scalpel” to root out the Deep State. "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32 Keywords: Robert Westman trans shooter manifesto, gender dysphoria regret, marijuana psychosis mass shooting, Trump crime crackdown poll, Muriel Bowser carjackings down, Brandon Johnson Chicago ICE order, Trump Insurrection Act authority, Trump Liberation Day tariffs, Supreme Court IEEPA case, de minimis exemption $200, U.S. tomato tariffs, Sherill flatware revival, Trump fires CDC CIA EPA DOJ staff, Trump questions Covid vaccines, Tulsi Gabbard CIA clearance revocation
In the first of a two- part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss the outcome of the Jackson Hole meeting and the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed rate path during the rest of the year. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Last Friday, the Jackson Hole meeting delivered a big surprise to markets. Both stocks and bonds reacted decisively.Today, the first of a two-part episode. We'll discuss Michael's reaction to Chair Powell's Jackson Hole comments and what they mean for his view on the outlook for monetary policy. Tomorrow, the outlook for interest rate markets and the US dollar. It's Thursday, August 28th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, here we are after Jackson Hole. The mood this year felt a lot more hawkish, or at least patient than what we saw last week. And Chair Powell really caught my attention when he said, “with policy and restrictive territory, the baseline outlook for the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That line has been on my mind ever since. So, let's dig into it. What's your gut reaction?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me, and I think I would highlight three aspects of his Jackson Hole comments that were important to me. So, I think what happened here, of course, is the Fed became much more worried about downside risk to the labor market after the July employment report, right? So, at the July FOMC meeting, which came before that report, Powell had said, ‘Well, you know, slow payroll growth is fine as long as the unemployment rate stays low.' And that's very much in line with our view. But sometimes these things are easier said than done. And I think the July employment report told them perhaps there's more weakness in the labor market now than they thought.So, I think the messaging here is about a shift towards risk management mode. Maybe we need to put in a couple policy rate cuts to shore up the labor market. And I think that was the big change and I think that's what drove the overall message in the statement. But there were two other parts of it that I think were interesting, you know. From the economist's point of view, when the chair explicitly writes in a speech that ‘the economy now may warrant adjustments in our policy stance,' right? I mean, that's a big deal. It suggests that the decision has been largely made, and I think anytime the Fed is taking a change of direction, either easing or tightening, they're not just going to do one move. So, they're signaling that they're likely prepared to do a series of moves, and we can debate about what that means. And the third thing that struck me is right before the line that you mentioned he did qualify the need to adjust rates by saying, well, whatever we do, we should, “Proceed cautiously.” So, a year ago, as you recall, the Fed opened up with a big 50 basis point rate cut, which was a surprise. And cut at three successive meetings. So, a hundred basis points of cuts over three meetings, starting with a 50 basis point cut. I think the phraseology ‘proceeds carefully' is a signal to markets that, ‘Hey, don't expect that this time around.' The world's different. This is a risk management discussion. And so, we think, two rate cuts before year end would be most likely. Maybe you get three. But I don't think we should expect a large 50 basis point cut at the September meeting. So those would be my thoughts. Downside risk to the labor market – putting this into words says something important to me. And the ‘proceed cautiously' language I think is something markets also need to take into account.Matthew Hornbach: So how do you translate that into a forecasted path for the Fed? I mean, in terms of your baseline outlook, how many rate cuts are you forecasting this year? And what about in 2026?Michael Gapen: Right. So, we previously; we thought what the Fed was doing was leaning against risks that inflation would be persistent. They moved into that camp because of how fast tariffs were going up and the overall level of the effective tariff rate. So, we thought they would stay on hold for longer and when they move, move more rapidly. What they're saying now in a risk management sense, right; they still think risk to inflation is to the upside, but the unemployment rate is also to the upside. And they're looking at both of those as about equally weighted. So, in a baseline outlook where the Fed's not assuming a recession and neither are we, you get a maybe a dip in growth and a rise in inflation. But growth recovers and inflation comes down next year. In that world, and with the idea that you're proceeding cautiously, they're kind of moving and evaluating, moving and evaluating.So, I think the translation here is: a path of quarterly rate cuts between now and the end of 2026. So, six rate cuts, but moving quarterly, like September and December this year; March, June, September, and December next year; which would take us to a terminal target range of 2.75 to 3. So rather than moving later and more rapidly, you move earlier, but more gradually. That's how we're thinking about it now.Matthew Hornbach: And that's about a 25 basis point upward adjustment to the trough policy rate that you were forecasting previously…Michael Gapen: That's right. So, the prior thought was a Fed that moves later may have to cut more, right? Because you're – by holding policy tighter for longer – you're putting more downward weight on the economy from a cyclical perspective. So, you may end up cutting more to essentially reverse that in 2026. So, by moving earlier, maybe a Fed that moves a little earlier, cuts a little less.Matthew Hornbach: In terms of the alternative outcomes. Obviously, in any given forecast, things can go not as expected. And so, if the path turns out to be something other than what you're forecasting today, what would be some of the more likely outcomes in your mind?Michael Gapen: Yeah, as we like to say in economics, we forecast so we know where we're wrong. So, you're right, the world can evolve very differently. So just a couple thoughts. You know, one, now that we're thinking the Fed does cut in September, what gets them not to cut? You'd need a – I think, a really strong August employment report; something around 225,000 jobs, which would bring the three-month moving average back to around 150, right. That would be a signal that the May-June downdraft was just a post Liberation Day pothole and not trend deterioration in the labor market. So that, you know, would be one potential alternative. Another is – although we've projected quarterly paths in this kind of nice gradual pace of cuts, we could get a repeat of last year where the Fed cuts 50 to 75 basis points by year end but realizes the labor market has not rolled over. And then we get some tariff pass through into inflation. And maybe residual seasonality and inflation in Q1. And then the Fed goes on hold again, then cuts could resume later in the year. And I also think in the backdrop here, when the Fed is saying we are easing in a risk management sense and we're easing maybe earlier than we otherwise would – that suggests the Fed has greater tolerance for inflation. So, understanding how much tolerance this Fed or the next one has for above target inflation, I think could influence how many rate cuts you eventually get in in 2026. So, we could even see a deeper trough through greater inflation tolerance. And finally, of course, we're not out of the woods with respect to recession risk. We could be wrong. Maybe the labor market is trend weakening and we're about to find that out. Growth is slowing. Growth was about 1.3 percent in the first half of the year. Final sales is softer. Of course, in a recession alternative scenario, the Fed's probably cutting much deeper, maybe down to 1 50 to 175 on the funds rate.So, I mean, Matt, you make a good point. There's still many different ways the economy can evolve and many different ways that the Fed's path for policy rates can evolve.Matthew Hornbach: Well, that's a good place to bring this Part 1 episode to an end. Tune in tomorrow, for my reaction to the market price action that followed Chair Powell's speech -- and what it means for our outlook for interest rate markets and the U.S. dollar.Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
President Trump's tariffs will lower deficits by an estimated $4 trillion, per a Congressional Budget Office projection released last Friday. While consumer confidence has dipped, the President has assured that the nation's economic tide is turning, as companies both foreign and domestic expand inside the U.S. Former member of the National Security Council during Trump's first term and Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council Alexander Gray joins to explain the benefits of the Trump administration's “Liberation Day” tariffs as well as weighing in on President Trump's push to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Juvenile crime has become a growing concern across the country, with communities struggling to strike a balance between accountability and rehabilitation. From curfews to new ordinances, officials are looking for methods to rein in disruptive and sometimes violent criminal behavior and get kids back on track. University of Miami sociology professor and former director at the Federal Bureau of Justice Statistics, Alex Piquero, joins the Rundown to break down the trends and if juvenile crime really is on the rise in America. Plus, commentary from Co-Chair of the Republican National Committee Youth Council, CJ Pearson. Photo Credit: AP Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Join us for an explosive episode of Joe Untamed as we dive into the heart of America's urban crisis and the change in federal law enforcement. Exactly one week after President Trump's bold declaration of "Liberation Day" in Washington, D.C., we unpack the dramatic takeover of the city's policing with retired Air Force Colonel Berney Flowers. As a former congressional candidate, author, and podcast host, Berney brings his unique perspective from nearly 21 years of military service, including deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Ukraine, to dissect the failures of state leadership in Maryland and the potential blueprint Trump's DC crackdown offers for other high-crime areas. We'll explore whether this is a temporary fix or a model for the future, and how his experiences in conflict zones shape his views on domestic safety. But that's not all—our second guest, Kyle Seraphin, a suspended FBI whistleblower turned relentless reformer, will expose the rot within the bureau under the new leadership of Kash Patel and Dan Bongino. With Kyle's firsthand account of the FBI's mishandling of cases like January 6 and the Epstein client list, we'll uncover the corruption that has plagued the organization and question whether Patel and Bongino can truly turn the tide. From Kyle's daily show on Rumble to his sharp critiques on X, this episode promises to ignite your passion for truth and justice. Don't miss this unfiltered, hard-hitting conversation that could redefine your understanding of crime, corruption, and the fight for bringing America back.
Markets have already priced in a Fed cut, given the mixed economic data in the July labor and CPI prints. Our Global Economist Arunima Sinha makes the case for why we're standing by our baseline call for a higher bar for a rate cut. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Arunima Sinha: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Arunima Sinha, Global Economist at Morgan Stanley. Today – our evaluation of the Fed's policy path following the July CPI print, and the broader implications for other central banks. It's Wednesday, August 20th at 2pm in New York. Our baseline call has been that the Fed will remain on hold this year, and last week's CPI print has not changed that view. As we have noted, average tariff rates are still ramping up given the implementation delays, and so their cumulative effect on prices could be more lagged. Within the CPI print, tariff exposed goods other than apparel and autos continued to be firm. The surprise came in services inflation, which showed a reversal led by the uptick in airfares and hotel prices, which had been running in deflationary territory for much of this year. Some of the pushback against our view on inflation stepping up over the summer due to tariffs was that services disinflation could compensate. But as this print showed, that is unlikely to be the case. While we expect services inflation to continue to moderate, we think that services disinflation in the first half of [20]25 was exaggerated by weakness and volatile competence; and both core CPI and core PCE inflation are still at their pace from last year. So further acceleration in goods inflation from tariff effects over the summer would still see inflation remaining well above the Fed's target. After the July U.S. employment and CPI reports, the bar for the Fed to stay on hold in September is clearly higher. So, what are the risks to our call? The road goes back to how the data and the Fed's reaction function will evolve over ahead of the September meeting. The August jobs report will be important. If it is a solid employment report, with a sequential acceleration in payrolls and the unemployment rate around 4.2 to 4.3 percent, then the Fed could likely look through the weakness in the May and June prints – attributing the slowdown to the uncertainty following Liberation Day and not representative of the underlying trend. If, however, there were to be a sharp drop off in the hiring pace, which is currently not being indicated by other job market indicators such as jolts or claims, then the Fed could take the view that the labor market is much weaker than anticipated and restart easing. There is also the possibility of a cut from a risk management perspective. Even with inflation running well above target, the Fed could take the July employment report as a clear signal of downside risk to the labor market and start the easing cycle. Messaging from Fed officials has so far been mixed, with some taking signal from the jobs data and others remaining less worried with the unemployment rate remaining low. Outside the U.S., central bank trajectories remain tightly linked to both the Fed's path and the evolving U.S. growth outlook. Recent labor market data have introduced downside risks to our ECB and BoJ calls. In Europe, if Euro strength persists and U.S. recession risks rise, our euro area economists see a reduced risk to their September easing baseline. In Japan, the Bank of Japan remains cautious. Stronger U.S. data could tilt the balance toward a rate hike later this year – though October remains a high hurdle, making December or beyond more plausible. That said, if the U.S. economy slows in line with our forecast, the likelihood of further BoJ tightening diminishes reinforcing our base case – the BoJ staying on hold through end of 2026. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
Today's Headlines: Trump and Putin are meeting today in Anchorage, Alaska, at the Cold War-era Elmendorf-Richardson base — which Russian media is treating like a five-star historic landmark. Ukraine's Zelensky wasn't invited to the land-talks party. Trump says he's optimistic about a deal, with a joint press conference possible if things go smoothly (or solo remarks if they don't). Meanwhile, investigators say Russia-backed hackers broke into the federal courts' sealed records system, which holds national security cases and other sensitive files. In politics, California Governor Gavin Newsom marked “Liberation Day” by announcing a ballot measure to take redistricting power from his state's independent commission, while Texas keeps fighting over its own maps. Border Patrol showed up at Newsom's LA event, prompting Mayor Karen Bass to call it “provocative.” Inflation's back in the spotlight as wholesale prices saw their biggest jump since 2022. PBS is still defunded, and conservative group PragerU is being floated as a replacement. And in family news: Ivanka Trump's back to plan a White House UFC fight for America's 250th birthday, while Hunter Biden claims Jeffrey Epstein introduced Donald and Melania Trump — something Melania's lawyers want retracted, but Hunter says he's not backing down. Resources/Articles mentioned in this episode: NBC News: Russians hail historic Alaska ties ahead of Trump-Putin summit on Ukraine CNN: Live updates: Trump says Putin will make deal on Ukraine as leaders prepare for Alaska meeting NYT: Russia Is Suspected to Be Behind Breach of Federal Court Filing System The Hill: Watch: Newsom outlines plan to combat Trump, GOP redistricting NYT: ICE shows up to Governor Newsom's press Conference CNBC: Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected The Grio: Potential PBS replacement network says slavery was 'no big deal' in video The Daily Beast: Trump Gives MIA Ivanka New White House Gig Axios: Hunter Biden said he won't apologize to Melania Trump amid lawsuit threat Morning Announcements is produced by Sami Sage and edited by Grace Hernandez-Johnson Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Original Release Date: July 11, 2025As U.S. retailers manage the impacts of increased tariffs, they have taken a number of approaches to avoid raising prices for customers. Our Head of Corporate Strategy Andrew Sheets and our Head of U.S. Consumer Retail and Credit Research Jenna Giannelli discuss whether they can continue to do so.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Jenna Giannelli: And I'm Jenna Giannelli, Head of U.S. Consumer and Retail Credit Research.Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, we're going to dig into one of the biggest conundrums in the market today. Where and when are tariffs going to show up in prices and margins?It's Friday, July 11th at 10am in New York.Jenna, it's great to catch up with you today because I think you can really bring some unique perspective into one of the biggest puzzles that we're facing in the market today. Even with all of these various pauses and delays, the U.S. has imposed historically large tariffs on imports. And we're seeing a rapid acceleration in the amount of money collected from those tariffs by U.S. customs. These are real hard dollars that importers – or somebody else – are paying. Yet we haven't seen these tariffs show up to a significant degree in official data on prices – with recent inflation data relatively modest. And overall stock and credit markets remain pretty strong and pretty resilient, suggesting less effect.So, are these tariffs just less impactful than expected, or is there something else going on here with timing and severity? And given your coverage of the consumer and retail sectors, which is really at the center of this tariff debate – what do you think is going on?Jenna Giannelli: So yes, this is a key question and one that is dominating a lot of our client conversations. At a high level, I'd point to a few things. First, there's a timing issue here. So, when tariffs were first announced, retailers were already sitting on three to four months worth of inventory, just due to natural industry lead times. And they were able to draw down on this product.This is mostly what they sold in 1Q and likely into 2Q, which is why you haven't seen much margin or pricing impact thus far. Companies – we also saw them start to stock up heavily on inventory before the tariffs and at the lower pause rate tariffs, which is the product you referenced that we're seeing coming in now. This is really going to help mitigate margin pressure in the second quarter that you still have this lower cost inventory flowing through.On top of this timing consideration, retailers – we've just seen utilizing a range of mitigation measures, right? So, whether it's canceled or pause shipments from China, a shifting production mix or sourcing exposure in the short run, particularly before the pause rate on China. And then really leaning into just whether it's product mix shifts, cost savings elsewhere in the PNL, and vendor negotiations, right? They're really leaning into everything in their toolbox that they can.Pricing too has been talked about as something that is an option, but the option of last resort. We have heard it will be utilized, but very tactically and very surgically, as we think about the back half of the year. When you put this all together, how much impact is it having? On average from retailers that we heard from in the first quarter, they thought they would be able to mitigate about half of the expected tariff headwind, which is actually a bit better than we were expecting.Finally, I'll just comment on your comment regarding market performance. While you're right in that the overall equity and credit markets have held up well, year-to-date, retail equities and credit have fared worse than their respective indices. What's interesting, actually, is that credit though has significantly outperformed retail equities, which is a relationship we think should converge or correct as we move throughout the balance of the year.Andrew Sheets: So, Jenna, retailers saw this coming. They've been pulling various levers to mitigate the impact. You mentioned kind of the last lever that they want to pull is prices, raising prices, which is the macro thing that we care about. The thing that would actually show up in inflation.How close are we though to kind of running out of other options for these guys? That is, the only thing left is they can start raising prices?Jenna Giannelli: So closer is what I would say. We're likely not going to see a huge impact in 2Q, more likely as we head into 3Q and more heavily into the all-important fourth quarter holiday season. This is really when those higher cost goods are going to be flowing through the PNL and retailers need to offset this as they've utilized a lot of their other mitigation strategies. They've moved what they could move. They've negotiated where they could, they've cut where they could cut. And again, as this last step, it will be to try and raise price.So, who's going to have the most and least success? In our universe, we think it's going to be more difficult to pass along price in some of the more historically deflationary categories like apparel and footwear. Outside of what is a really strong brand presence, which in our universe, historically hasn't been the case.Also, in some of the higher ticket or more durable goods categories like home goods, sporting goods, furniture, we think it'll be challenging as well here to pass along higher costs. Where it's going to be less of an issue is in our Staples universe, where what we'd put is less discretionary categories like Beauty, Personal Care, which is part of the reason why we've been cautious on retail, and neutral and consumer products when we think about sector allocation.Andrew Sheets: And when do you think this will show up? Is it a third quarter story? A fourth quarter story?Jenna Giannelli: I think this is going to really start to show up in the third quarter, and more heavily into the fourth quarter, the all-important holiday season.Andrew Sheets: Yeah, and I think that's what's really interesting about the impact of this backup to the macro. Again, returning to the big picture is I think one of the most important calls that Morgan Stanley economists have is that inflation, which has been coming down somewhat so far this year is going to pick back up in August and September and October. And because it's going to pick back up, the Federal Reserve is not going to cut interest rates anymore this year because of that inflation dynamic.So, this is a big debate in the market. Many investors disagree. But I think what you're talking about in terms of there are some very understandable reasons, maybe why prices haven't changed so far. But that those price hikes could be coming have real macroeconomic implications.So, you know, maybe though, something to just close on – is to bring this to the latest headlines. You know, we're now back it seems, in a market where every day we log onto our screens, and we see a new headline of some new tariff being announced or suggested towards countries. Where do you think those announcements, so far are relative to what retailers are expecting – kind of what you think is in guidance?Jenna Giannelli: Sure. So, look what we've seen of late; the recent tariff headlines are certainly higher or worse, I think, than what investors in management teams were expecting. For Vietnam, less so; I'd say it was more in line. But for most elsewhere, in Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, the rates that are set to go in effect on August 1st, as we now understand them, are higher or worse than management teams were expecting.Recall that while guidance did show up in many flavors in the first quarter, so whether withdrawn guidance or lowered guidance. For those that did factor in tariffs to their guide, most were factoring in either pause rate tariffs or tariff rates that were at least lower than what was proposed on Liberation Day, right?So, what's the punchline here? I think despite some of the revisions we've already seen, there are more to come. To put some numbers around this, if we look at our group of retail consumer cohort, credits, consensus expectations for calling for EBITDA in our universe to be down around 5 percent year-over-year. If we apply tariff rates as we know them today for a half-year headwind starting August 1st, this number should be down around 15 percent year-over-year on a gross basis…Andrew Sheets: So, three times as much.Jenna Giannelli: Pretty significant. Exactly. And so, while there might be mitigation efforts, there might be some pricing passed along, this is still a pretty significant delta between where consensus is right now and what we know tariff rates to be today – could imply for earnings in the second half.Andrew Sheets: Jenna, thanks for taking the time to talk.Jenna Giannelli: My pleasure. Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts to the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
Join Opie for a hilarious and heartfelt episode of the Opie Radio podcast, live from Long Island! Fresh off a day of boating and bonding with his brother and kids to honor his late father, Opie dives into a whirlwind of rants and riffs. From the absurd tragedy of Ron the Waiter's shark encounter to a metal detector guy unearthing a 1969 college ring, Opie spares no one—not even Taylor Swift or the Kelsey brothers' podcasting antics. He marvels at a real-life Grand Theft Auto chase in LA, questions the relevance of TV traffic reports in the Google Maps era, and crowns an unlikely hero at AOL for finally pulling the plug on dial-up. Expect sharp humor, nostalgic vibes, and Opie's unfiltered take on life, loss, and the absurdities of 2025
Becky Weiss breaks down the Supreme Court's latest gay marriage drama while President Trump takes center stage in D.C. with a fiery Liberation Day presser — torching Democrats' soft-on-crime policies, exposing the absurdity of cash bail, and facing down a packed press room.We call out Washington Post hypocrisy, mock the Left's bizarre “pots and pans at 8 p.m.” protest plan, and dive into Judge Jeanine's takedown of D.C.'s crime stats. Patel blows the lid off Adam Schiff's alleged leaks of classified intel to hurt Trump, while Gavin Newsom faces ridicule for threatening to redistrict California.Plus:-Charlie Kirk takes Newsom to task-Trump's gold upgrades inside the White House-Adults de-stressing with pacifiers (yes, really)-TikTok melts down over DOGE coin cuts-Brittney Griner's child sparks headlines calling her “pops”-Cristiano Ronaldo's fiancée's massive engagement ring-Jennifer Welch gets roasted for “white savior complex”-Hunter Biden on AI stealing jobs-Doctors feel the AI squeeze-TikTok users complain about… having a job-Laura Loomer joins the fight against Marjorie Taylor GreeneAnd Candace Owens and Nick Fuentes' viral spat — and Candace playing victimSUPPORT OUR SPONSORS TO SUPPORT OUR SHOW!Stay hurricane-ready and be prepared for any emergency with ReadyWise. Visit https://ReadyWise.com and use promo code CHICKS10 for 10% off your entire purchase.Experience your dream bedding and stay cool all night long with Buffy's breathable, eco-friendly comforters and sheets. Get 20% off your first Buffy order using code CHICKS at https://Buffy.coTry Beam's best-selling Creatine and get up to 30% off at https://ShopBeam.com/CHICKS with code CHICKS—limited time only!
The House and Senate continue to gavel in just to keep President Trump from making recess appointments. Dr. Phil debates ICE raids with Bill Maher. Trump and Russia's Putin to meet this week in Alaska. International pushback on tariffs. Texas Democrats seem to be losing the PR battle over Texas Democrats. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) is more popular than the pope? What the mRNA vaccines are doing inside bodies. Home confinement for a man who violently attacked two elderly men in front of a Planned Parenthood. President Trump vows to clean up Washington, D.C., after a recent crime surge. NASCAR driver breaks collarbone celebrating. Apollo astronaut Jim Lovell passes away. Another successful SpaceX launch today. Here comes 3I/Atlas … everybody panic! OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on kids and AI. First female MLB umpire makes her debut. AOC campaign adviser arrested for terroristic threats against Jewish schoolchildren. JD Vance leads all prospective Democrats for 2028. 00:00 Pat Gray UNLEASHED! 00:22 New Pat Gray BINGO! Card 05:44 Glenn Beck's Inspection of Kris Cruz 06:55 House & Senate Gaveled In 10:59 Nancy Pelosi & Tom Homan Good Morning Meme 13:51 Dr. Phil Calls Out Bill Maher 19:04 Trump will Meet Putin in Alaska 22:05 India Pushing Back? 26:46 Beto is Big Mad 27:46 Beto Wants to Punch First 32:09 Bernie Sanders on Democrats Voting for Trump 33:54 Bernie Sanders 2028? 35:19 Bernie Sanders on Hamas 41:03 RFK Jr. Stops this Program 43:45 RFK Jr. on mRNA Vaccine 46:12 Riley Gaines on Organ Donation 49:11 Sydney Sweeney for Baskin Robbins 54:02 Two Men Assaulted in front of Planned Parenthood 1:03:51 Washington DC is MESSED UP! 1:05:52 Trump on Upcoming Beautification Press Conference 1:07:21 Liberation Day for Washington DC 1:12:06 RIP US Astronaut Jim Lovell 1:17:20 3I/ATLAS Update 1:20:49 Sam Altman on AI Intelligence 1:26:56 Jen Pawol's First Day at Work 1:32:30 JD Vance Holds a Narrow Lead against Democrats Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
President Trump announced that he is invoking Section 740 of the DC Home Rule Act to place Washington, DC's Metropolitan Police Department under “direct federal control” and authorizing the Secretary of Defense to deploy National Guard troops in Washington, DC. Crime in D.C. is out of control and everyone, including President Trump, is tired of it!Sponsor:My PillowWww.MyPillow.com/johnSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Today Nicole sits down with Yossi Levi—aka Car Dealership Guy—for a no-fluff breakdown of what's really happening in the car market and everything you need to know if you're car shopping. They unpack how the new Liberation Day tariffs are impacting prices, what's still negotiable at the dealership, and whether used cars are feeling the heat, too. Plus, Yossi weighs in on viral tax hacks like the G-Wagon deduction and a new write-off in Trump's latest tax proposal that could save you big. And yes, Nicole asks what he drives—because obviously. Follow Car Dealership Guy This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. As part of the IRA Match Program, Public Investing will fund a 1% match of: (a) all eligible IRA transfers and 401(k) rollovers made to a Public IRA; and (b) all eligible contributions made to a Public IRA up to the account's annual contribution limit. The matched funds must be kept in the account for at least 5 years to avoid an early removal fee. Match rate and other terms of the Match Program are subject to change at any time. See full terms here. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC. *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.
It's Liberation Day…again. After two missed deadlines and only a few trade deals done, Trump's global tariffs officially go into effect today. To mark the occasion, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro says the president not only deserves a Nobel Peace Prize—but also a Nobel Prize in economics. Meanwhile, Trump can't stop talking about Jeffrey Epstein, telling reporters on Air Force One that Virginia Giuffre was "stolen" by Jeffrey Epstein from the Mar-a-Largo spa. Trump pressures Senate Republicans to kill a ban on congressional (and presidential) stock trading. Jon and Dan discuss the latest, including Democrats' shifting views on Gaza, Kamala Harris's decision not to run for California governor, and Texas Republicans' attempts to steal the 2026 midterm elections by redrawing their congressional map. Then, Congressman Jason Crow joins Tommy in the studio to talk about recruiting Democrats to run for office, and why he's suing ICE after being denied entry to a detention facility in his district.
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