Podcasts about Liberation Day

Courtney Gains (Children of the Corn, Can't Buy Me Love, The Burbs) comes to $2 Late Fee to discuss his new album (Liberation Day), reminisce on his movie career, and more! Courtney Gains is a household name due to standout performances in movies like Colors & Can't Buy Me Love, as well as cult favorites like Hardbodies & Winners Take All!! But did you know he's a talented singer songwriter too? In this interview, Courtney talks about his record Liberation Day and the motivation behind it, his new movie Barn III, digs deep into his filmography, & more! Enjoy!  Check out Courtney Gains album Liberation Day here! Also check out Courtney's instagram and Facebook for news and updates! As mentioned in the episode, check out the amazing Facebook page dedicated to Courtney's film Winners Take All here! Dig the show? Please consider supporting $2 Late Fee on Patreon for tons of bonus content (like Tales From The Video Store)! Link is below: Two Dollar Late Fee: ⁠www.patreon.com/twodollarlatefee⁠ Please follow/subscribe and rate us on Spotify and Apple Podcasts! Apple Podcasts: ⁠podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/two-dollar-late-fee⁠ Spotify: ⁠open.spotify.com/show/⁠ Instagram: ⁠@twodollarlatefee⁠ Subscribe to our ⁠YouTube⁠ Check out Jim Walker's intro/outro music on Bandcamp: ⁠jvamusic1.bandcamp.com⁠ Facebook: ⁠facebook.com/Two-Dollar-Late-Fee-Podcast⁠ Merch:⁠ https://www.teepublic.com/user/two-dollar-late-fee⁠ IMDB: ⁠https://www.imdb.com⁠ Two Dollar Late Fee is a part of the nutritious ⁠Geekscape Network⁠ Every episode is produced, edited, and coddled by Zak Shaffer (⁠@zakshaffer⁠) & Dustin Rubin (⁠@dustinrubinvo⁠) You can watch the entire interview on our YouTube channel here. Don't forget to like & subscribe!You can listen & NOW watch on Spotify here. Don't forget to like & subscribe! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Courtney Gains joins us to talk his classic career such as The Children o the Corn, The Burbs the new Barn 3 at festivals now and his upcoming 10-song solo album Liberation Day!Join Nasty Neal, Terrible Troy and Tara Hutchison with the horror icon Courtney Gains!#WithoutyourHead #CourtneyGains #Theburbs #HorrorMovies #ChildrenOfTheCorn #Thebarn3 #nastyNeal

Send us Fan MailIn this episode, we're joined by legendary actor and musician Courtney Gains, best known to horror fans as Malachai in Children of the Corn, along with memorable roles in Back to the Future, and The 'Burbs. Courtney takes us behind the scenes of his decades-long acting career, his connection to the horror genre, and what it has been like working in Hollywood for more than 40 years. We also talk about his latest projects, including The Barn Part III. Courtney also opens up about his upcoming album Liberation Day, set to be released on August 24th.Follow us on Social Media:  @pvdhorror Instagram, X, TikTok, FacebookWatch us on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@pvdhorrorSpecial thanks to John Brennan for the intro and outro music. Be sure to find his music on social media at @badtechno or the following:https://johnbrennan.bandcamp.com

Despite a major setback earlier this year when the Supreme Court ruled against his use of emergency authority in enacting tariffs back in April 2025 on what he called “Liberation Day,” President Donald Trump continues to find ways to levy import taxes on friends and foes alike. That includes a whopping 50% levy aimed at Canada which, if negotiations fail, will go into effect on August 19th. Meanwhile a new piece of legislation cloaked in the guise of Russian sanctions aims to effectively give the president carte blanche to levy tariffs on whichever countries he wants to. Is the president's “America First Trade Policy” a win for the American people? Inu Manak, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, joins The Excerpt to share her insights.Let us know what you think of this episode by sending an email to podcasts@usatoday.com. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Four institutions told this administration no. Four times, the answer was to find another door. This week on Purple Political Breakdown: the Senate confirmed Todd Blanche, Trump's former criminal defense attorney, as Attorney General by a vote of 50 to 49 at 4:31 in the morning on a Saturday. Bill Cassidy stood on the Senate floor, said the nominee had exempted the President from IRS audits and was running a department that sues the President's political enemies, and then voted yes anyway. We follow the money to Greenland, where a Texas oil company tied to Trump's circle landed drilling equipment the Greenlandic government never authorized, and got a public rebuke for it two days before Trump posted an AI image of himself looming over a Greenlandic village. Plus the DC Circuit blocking the White House ballroom 2 to 1, with the court reminding the President that he is a temporary tenant, not the owner. Then the story nobody covered correctly: roughly $100 billion in tariff refunds went back out the door after the Supreme Court struck the Liberation Day tariffs. Apple got $2.2 billion. Ford got $1.3 billion. Amazon got $600 million. You got nothing, because only the importer of record can file a claim, and the German Kiel Institute found that American importers and their customers ate 96 percent of the cost. The $2,000 rebate checks never happened. We break down the two birthright citizenship executive orders Trump signed on August 6, six weeks after losing at the Supreme Court in Trump v. Barbara, including the part almost no outlet caught: the citizenship order will be litigated for a year, but the visa order is already running through consulates where there is almost no judicial review. In Research on a Dime, David Crowley beat Francesca Hong by four tenths of a point in Wisconsin, and we get into what that actually says about DSA momentum in the Democratic Party, including Hong separating herself from the national platform on camera. Plus Peggy Flanagan, Andy Ogles losing a Trump endorsed primary, Iowa, and Markey against Moulton. And the main event: a real breakdown of what AIPAC is. Not the vibes version. The four separate entities, the difference between AIPAC PAC and the United Democracy Project super PAC, and the answer to the question nobody gets right. Haley Stevens could not have refused that $30 million even if she wanted to. Neither could Abdul El Sayed refuse his $2.3 million. We walk through the three legal buckets, why AIPAC is not a foreign entity under FARA, what the actual history of that argument is, and why the honest fix here is campaign finance reform rather than a FARA designation that is not going to happen without evidence. Good news to close: gene edited hypoallergenic beagles, real progress on HIV and AIDS, motor improvements in boys with muscular dystrophy, the first mRNA flu vaccine approved, Google's AI buying hurricane forecasters an extra day, a much larger ancient Amazon civilization than anyone expected, and NASA engineers fighting for ten watts on a 49 year old spacecraft 13 billion miles away. Data centers, water usage, energy usage and jobs are coming next week. Political Solutions Without Political Bias. Standard Resource Links & Recommendations The following organizations and platforms represent valuable resources for balanced political discourse and democratic participation: PODCAST NETWORK Check Out the Podcast Website: https://www.purplepoliticalbreakdown.com ALIVE Podcast Network: Check out the ALIVE Network where you can catch a lot of great podcasts like my own, led by amazing Black voices. Link: https://alivepodcastnetwork.com/ CONVERSATION PLATFORMS HeadOn: A platform for contentious yet productive conversations. It's a place for hosted and unguided conversations where you can grow a following and enhance your conversations with AI features. Link: https://app.headon.ai/ Living Room Conversations: Building bridges through meaningful dialogue across political divides. Link: https://livingroomconversations.org/ UNITY MOVEMENTS Us United: A movement for unity that challenges Americans to step out of their bubbles and connect across differences. Take the Unity Pledge, join monthly "30 For US" conversation calls, wear purple (the color of unity), and participate in National Unity Day every second Saturday in December. Their programs include the Sheriff Unity Network and Unity Seats at sports events, proving that shared values are stronger than our differences. Link: https://www.us-united.org/ BALANCED NEWS & INFORMATION OtherWeb: An AI-based platform that filters news without paywalls, clickbait, or junk, helping you access diverse, unbiased content. Link: https://otherweb.com/ VOTING REFORM & DEMOCRACY Equal Vote Coalition & STAR Voting: Advocating for voting methods that ensure every vote counts equally, eliminating wasted votes and strategic voting. Link: https://www.equal.vote/star Future is Now Coalition (FiNC): A grassroots movement working to restore democracy through transparency, accountability, and innovative technology while empowering citizens and transforming American political discourse. Link: https://futureis.org/ POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT Independent Center: Resources for independent political thinking and civic engagement. Link: https://www.independentcenter.org/ Join the conversation on political solutions: https://www.reddit.com/r/policysolutions/ GET DAILY NEWS Text 844-406-INFO (844-406-4636) with code "purple" to receive quick, unbiased, factual news delivered to your phone every morning via Informed (https://informed.now) Check Out the Unfuck America Tour & National Ground Game: https://www.nationalgroundgame.com/ Check Out the CIVICS App to Know More About Your Politicians: https://www.civicpolitics.com Subscribe to the Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/purplepoliticalbreakdown ALL LINKS https://linktr.ee/purplepoliticalbreakdown The Purple Political Breakdown is committed to fostering productive political dialogue that transcends partisan divides. We believe in the power of conversation, balanced information, and democratic participation to build a stronger society. Our mission: "Political solutions without political bias." Subscribe, rate, and share if you believe in purple politics, where we find common ground in the middle! Also if you want to be apart of the community and the conversation make sure to Join the Discord: https://discord.gg/ptPAsZtHC9

This week, we're bringing you an episode of WSJ's Take On the Week. Host Telis Demos and guest host Spencer Jakab, investing columnist and writer of the Markets A.M. newsletter, are joined by Kaitlin Hendrix, asset allocation research director at Dimensional Fund Advisors, to decode investors' surging interest in private markets. They break down how investors may already have exposure in their investment portfolios to private companies like Anthropic, Stripe and Flipkart, through holdings in companies like Alphabet's Google, Amazon and Nvidia. Hendrix explains why your public index fund might already provide the diversification you're looking for, without the high fees. Plus, Jakab explains the way that big tech's private company investments are boosting earnings to near-unprecedented levels.  To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Further Reading:  Earnings Forecasts Are on Steroids For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

If you run a business that exports to the United States, how big is the tariff you have to pay? In 2025 that question was hard to answer. Between February and December, 53 separate announcements introduced, delayed, reinstated or changed US tariffs, with different countries and products pulled in or exempted each time.Kalina Manova (UCL, CEPR) and her colleagues built a database of every one of those announcements, but they also measured  the confusion that those announcements created. She tells Tim Phillips about how tariff confusion has become a second tax on trade, as confusion puts off exporters: but it's one that raises no revenue. On average, uncertainty about the actual tariff doubled the damage done to trade by the tariff hikes themselves. For some countries it tripled it. Does this result mean that, if the US cleared up the confusion by not changing its tariffs regularly, it could double tariff income for the same impact on trade?The research behind this episode:Manova, Kalina, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson, and Aaron Tang. 2026. "Tariff Confusion." CEPR Discussion Paper DP21688 (gated).To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Kalina Manova. 2026. "Tariff Confusion." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).About the guestKalina Manova is Professor of Economics at University College London and a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Her work spans global production networks and multinational activity, firm productivity and management, trade policy, and the financial frictions that shape international trade and investment. She holds an AB, AM and PhD from Harvard, and has previously held posts at Stanford, Princeton and Oxford.Research cited in this episodeUS Tariff Announcement Database (USTAD). The dataset Manova and her co-authors assembled by hand from US presidential executive orders and proclamations, recording all 53 tariff announcements of 2025 and tracing, for roughly 230 origin countries and more than 18,000 ten-digit product categories, the statutory tariff in place each month.The four confusion measures. With no direct way to measure confusion, the paper proxies it four ways: the cumulative number of relevant announcements a firm had to track; the number of possible tariff calculations those announcements could produce (labelled tariff mess, defined as two to the power of the number of announcements); the highest tariff a firm might infer if it heard only the bad news (tariff max); and how far that worst case sits above the true statutory rate (tariff miss).The firm survey. A survey of roughly 4,500 firms in the US and Canada in March and April 2025 found that around 45% believed tariffs on Chinese goods were below 20%, when the true average was about 42%; at the same time, 87% underestimated how many announcements had postponed or rolled back tariffs. Firms were wrong in both directions at once.Trade policy uncertainty. A prior literature on uncertainty about future tariffs, which tends to find that firms delay forming trade relationships when the future is unclear. The paper's contribution is to separate confusion about current tariffs from uncertainty about future ones, and to show the former bites on its own.Relationship-specific investment and trust. Trade in goods that require buyers and suppliers to customise to one another, or that sit in stickier supply relationships, proved more resilient to confusion; so did trade with countries whose populations report higher trust in foreigners. Informal trust, rather than formal contract enforcement, did the work of cushioning the shock.The IEEPA ruling. In February 2026 the US Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed in 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful. The paper's data stops before the ruling, which generated fresh policy change and, presumably, fresh confusion.More VoxTalks Economics episodesWorld War Trade. Richard Baldwin on how the April 2025 tariffs settled into a trade Cold War, and why the rest of the world kept trading without the US.Europe in the Middle. Pol Antrà s and Beata Javorcik on where redirected Chinese exports go when they can no longer sell in the US, and what that means for European firms and consumers.How exchange rates responded to tariffs. Giancarlo Corsetti on why the dollar fell after Liberation Day when tariffs should, in theory, have pushed it the other way.Related reading on VoxEU.orgTrump and Tariffs, a VoxEU debate page collecting research on how the 2025 tariffs are reshaping supply chains, trade relationships and market stability.

Trump has put a 12.5 percent tariff on about 70 percent of NZ exports to the US, and this one looks more likely to stick The 'Liberation Day' tariffs were struck down earlier this year, but Trump is back with a new round of tariffs, and experts say these look more legally soundFind The Detail on Newsroom or RNZGo to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

urple Political Breakdown, hosted by Radell Lewis. Political Solutions Without Political Bias. The Supreme Court struck down this administration's tariffs. So it found a different law and taxed 99.4 percent of everything America imports anyway. A federal judge blocked the order rewriting how you get a mail ballot. So it went to the Supreme Court, and the Postal Service started building the portal regardless. OpenAI sealed two AI models in a sandbox to test whether they could hack. The models picked the lock and hacked a real company on the way out. Nobody in this episode broke a rule. Everybody found a way around one. That is the thread. This week we launch a new opening segment, What Has Trump Said This Week, going straight to the tape on the fourth term comments and the Netanyahu remarks. NUANCED NEWS: The tariff sequence nobody is explaining. Three different legal authorities in six months producing nearly the same outcome, each time a court closed a door. Section 301 after Section 122 after the Supreme Court struck the original Liberation Day tariffs. Then the same authority aimed at the European Union one day later over the Google antitrust fine, and a lawsuit filed by Friday afternoon. Plus the mail ballot executive order reaching the Supreme Court with a response due August 3, two federal appeals courts splitting on ripeness in the same week, and the postal portal getting built anyway. Plus the OpenAI containment breach, including the detail almost nobody reported: when OpenAI tried to defend against its own attacking agent, another American lab's safety guardrails made its model useless, so the defense ran on an open source Chinese model. RESEARCH ON A DIME: Jay Clayton, confirmed Director of National Intelligence 51 to 47, and the surveillance law nobody will vote on. Section 702 of FISA has been dead since June 12. It is not being debated on its merits. It is collateral. And on July 10, the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act became law without a presidential signature for the same reason. Same bill. Two hostages. Then Michigan's Senate primary, the 36 million dollars in outside spending, and the 16.8 million from a group that does not have to say who funds it until after you vote. BREAKDOWN IN THE PUBLIC: Is it actually harder now, or does it just feel that way? New Pew data on how young adults see homeownership, education, savings, and jobs, the Minneapolis Fed's argument that we may be measuring American homeownership 12 points wrong, and an honest steel-man of the case that the whole gerontocracy frame is a misdirection. GOOD NEWS: States are revoking data center tax breaks after residents connected their power bills to the building down the road. Solar hit a quarter of all EU electricity for the first time. And a Stanford Medicine trial has kids with multiple food allergies eating full servings safely. Join the conversation about real political solutions: https://www.reddit.com/r/policysolutions/ New episodes stream live every Wednesday. Full audio drops Thursday. Standard Resource Links & Recommendations The following organizations and platforms represent valuable resources for balanced political discourse and democratic participation: PODCAST NETWORK Check Out the Podcast Website: https://www.purplepoliticalbreakdown.com ALIVE Podcast Network: Check out the ALIVE Network where you can catch a lot of great podcasts like my own, led by amazing Black voices. Link: https://alivepodcastnetwork.com/ CONVERSATION PLATFORMS HeadOn: A platform for contentious yet productive conversations. It's a place for hosted and unguided conversations where you can grow a following and enhance your conversations with AI features. Link: https://app.headon.ai/ Living Room Conversations: Building bridges through meaningful dialogue across political divides. Link: https://livingroomconversations.org/ UNITY MOVEMENTS Us United: A movement for unity that challenges Americans to step out of their bubbles and connect across differences. Take the Unity Pledge, join monthly "30 For US" conversation calls, wear purple (the color of unity), and participate in National Unity Day every second Saturday in December. Their programs include the Sheriff Unity Network and Unity Seats at sports events, proving that shared values are stronger than our differences. Link: https://www.us-united.org/ BALANCED NEWS & INFORMATION OtherWeb: An AI-based platform that filters news without paywalls, clickbait, or junk, helping you access diverse, unbiased content. Link: https://otherweb.com/ VOTING REFORM & DEMOCRACY Equal Vote Coalition & STAR Voting: Advocating for voting methods that ensure every vote counts equally, eliminating wasted votes and strategic voting. Link: https://www.equal.vote/star Future is Now Coalition (FiNC): A grassroots movement working to restore democracy through transparency, accountability, and innovative technology while empowering citizens and transforming American political discourse. Link: https://futureis.org/ POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT Independent Center: Resources for independent political thinking and civic engagement. Link: https://www.independentcenter.org/ GET DAILY NEWS Text 844-406-INFO (844-406-4636) with code "purple" to receive quick, unbiased, factual news delivered to your phone every morning via Informed (https://informed.now) Check Out the Unfuck America Tour & National Ground Game: https://www.nationalgroundgame.com/ Check Out the CIVICS App to Know More About Your Politicians: https://www.civicpolitics.com Subscribe to the Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/purplepoliticalbreakdown ALL LINKS https://linktr.ee/purplepoliticalbreakdown The Purple Political Breakdown is committed to fostering productive political dialogue that transcends partisan divides. We believe in the power of conversation, balanced information, and democratic participation to build a stronger society. Our mission: "Political solutions without political bias." Subscribe, rate, and share if you believe in purple politics, where we find common ground in the middle! Also if you want to be apart of the community and the conversation make sure to Join the Discord: https://discord.gg/ptPAsZtHC9

In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, host Telis Demos and guest host Spencer Jakab, the Wall Street Journal's investing columnist and writer of the Markets A.M. newsletter, are joined by Kaitlin Hendrix, asset allocation research director at global investment firm Dimensional Fund Advisors, to decode investors' surging interest in private markets.  They break down how investors may already have exposure in their investment portfolios to private companies like Anthropic, Stripe and Flipkart, through holdings in companies like Alphabet's Google, Amazon and Nvidia. Hendrix explains why your public index fund might already provide the diversification you're looking for, without the high fees. Plus, Jakab explains the way that big tech's private company investments are boosting earnings to near-unprecedented levels.  This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Telis Demos, writer for WSJ's Heard on the Street, and Miriam Gottfried, WSJ's investing and wealth management reporter, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading Earnings Forecasts Are on Steroids For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter, written by our guest host: Spencer Jakab.  Follow Miriam Gottfried here and Telis Demos here. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Months after many of his ‘Liberation Day' tariffs were declared illegal by the Supreme Court, Donald Trump has announced a fresh wave of tariffs against dozens of countries.This time, using the allegation of “forced labour” by America's trading partners, Trump is hoping his new tariffs will be less open to challenge in the courts.But what will the impact be on American consumers already hit hard by the war in Iran? And can anyone take Trump's trade policy seriously, when it can all change in an instant?On this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Australian-American economist Justin Wolfers, as well as Financial Times columnist and co-author of the book How to Win a Trade War, Soumaya Keynes.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court. The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections 06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months 07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day 08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day 09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans 10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House 11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans 12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats 14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map 14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate 16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate 17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle 18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago 18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year 19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas 21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats 21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses? 22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat 24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against 26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable 27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent 29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not 30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war 31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval 32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party 34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance 35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014 36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans 37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles 37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval 38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers 39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms 40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it 42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports 43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten 44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does 46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives 46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools 47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement 48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this 49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down 50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges 51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed 53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation 53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it 54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players 55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill 57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere 58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut 59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025 59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak 1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK 1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price 1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation 1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal 1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi 1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy 1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC 1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far 1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run? 1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder 1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries 1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club 1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate 1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries 01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast 01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems 01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration 01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed 01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late 01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long 01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past 01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him 01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation 01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory 01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition 01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism 01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism 01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden 01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse 01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority 01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people 01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics? 01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues 01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power 01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy 01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them 01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America 01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax 01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year 01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional 01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea 01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility 01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better 01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump 01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left 01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states 01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable 01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue 01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states 01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same 02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24 02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats 02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027? 02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living 02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated 02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much 02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable 02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose 02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating? 02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine 02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties 02:14:00 #5 Oregon 02:15:00 #4 Ohio 02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin 02:18:15 #2 Kansas 02:19:00 #1 Iowa 02:20:00 Ask Chuck 02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair 02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin? 02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time? 02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida? 02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections 06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months 07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day 08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day 09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans 10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House 11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans 12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats 14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map 14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate 16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate 17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle 18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago 18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year 19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas 21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats 21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses? 22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat 24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against 26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable 27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent 29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not 30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war 31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval 32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party 34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance 35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014 36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans 37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles 37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval 38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers 39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms 40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it 42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports 43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten 44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does 46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives 46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools 47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement 48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this 49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down 50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges 51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed 53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation 53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it 54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players 55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill 57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere 58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut 59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025 59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak 1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK 1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price 1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation 1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal 1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi 1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy 1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC 1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far 1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run? 1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder 1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries 1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club 1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate 1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries 01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties 01:14:00 #5 Oregon 01:15:00 #4 Ohio 01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin 01:18:15 #2 Kansas 01:19:00 #1 Iowa 01:20:00 Ask Chuck 01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair 01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin? 01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time? 01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida? 01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Recorded at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum, Paris School of Economics, June 2026.In 1941 the United States banned oil exports to Japan, to punish aggression without fighting a war. Historians now argue the embargo did the opposite, and hastened Japan's entry into the war.Isabelle Méjean (Sciences Po, CEPR) calls this "The safety paradox". Trade between rivals makes war more expensive. Cut that trade to protect your interests, and you make conflict cheaper, for your rival as well as for you. In a new VoxTalk she talks to Tim Phillips about economic coercion, decoupling, and why Europe should treat its trade agreements as insurance.Méjean and her co-authors simulated the US decoupling from China. Raising tariffs by 20 percentage points, roughly what the first Trump administration did, raises the probability of war by 2%, she estimates. That sounds small until you consider what a war between the US and China would mean.The research behind this episode:Mayer, Thierry, Isabelle Méjean, and Mathias Thoenig. 2025. "The Fragmentation Paradox: De-risking Trade and Global Safety." CEPR Discussion Paper 20564 (gated).To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Isabelle Méjean. 2026. "The Safety Paradox." VoxTalks Economics (podcast).About the guestIsabelle Méjean is Professor of Economics at Sciences Po and a Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, where she directs the International Trade and Regional Economics programme and is a member of the Research Policy Network on Geoeconomics and Security. She is a scientific advisor at CEPII and a member of the French Conseil d'Analyse Économique, with research spanning international trade, firm-to-firm networks, and how shocks to individual firms move whole economies. In 2020 she was named Best Young Economist of France.Research cited in this episodeMake Trade Not War? Philippe Martin, Thierry Mayer, and Mathias Thoenig's 2008 paper in the Review of Economic Studies (75(3): 865-900) provided the first quantitative evidence that bilateral trade integration reduces the probability of interstate conflict; the diplomatic game in the new paper builds directly on it.Montesquieu, De l'esprit des lois (1748). The earliest statement of the idea, Méjean notes, that interdependence between nations raises the cost of conflict and strengthens the hand of diplomacy; what was trade dependence in the 18th century now includes finance and technology.The US oil embargo on Japan, 1941. Méjean's historical example of the safety paradox in action; a policy designed to impose costs on Japan is widely credited by historians with accelerating its entry into the Second World War.China's trade ban on Lithuania. After Lithuania allowed a Taiwanese representative office to open in Vilnius in 2021, China blocked Lithuanian products from its market; the episode's example of open economic coercion, and one that prompted the EU's Anti-Coercion Instrument, in force since 2023.Liberation Day tariffs. The US tariffs announced in April 2025; Méjean points to the tariff on Brazil, justified by the treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, as a tariff with an explicitly geopolitical rather than economic purpose.Rare earths. China holds a near monopoly across mining, refining, and magnet production; Méjean's example of where future trade agreements could act as insurance, because deposits outside China offer more scope for diversification than mining in Europe.More VoxTalks Economics episodesEurope in the Middle. Pol Antras and Beata Javorcik, recorded at the same forum, on what the US-China realignment means for European producers and consumers.World War Trade. Richard Baldwin on how world trade was weaponised, and where the trading order goes from here.Trading Around Geopolitics. Giancarlo Corsetti, Banu Demir, and Beata Javorcik on why trade sanctions can be like squeezing a balloon.Related reading on VoxEUWhy 'de-risking' may not deliver a large peace dividend, a VoxEU column estimating that a doubling of bilateral trade reduces the probability of militarised conflict by roughly 30%.How geopolitics is changing trade, a VoxEU column documenting the fragmentation of trade flows along geopolitical lines.Geopolitical risk and supply chain diversification, a VoxEU column on how firms respond to geopolitical risk in their sourcing decisions.

Economists have agreed on free trade for two centuries; the public and the politicians haven't caught up. Lucas Engelhardt rebuilds the case from scratch—mutual benefit, comparative advantage, and the simple point that drawing a border between two traders destroys none of the gains—then takes apart the arguments for tariffs one by one. Most timely is his treatment of trade deficits: following Mises, he shows a deficit isn't a "loss" but the natural result of Americans choosing goods over cash, and explains why "Liberation Day" tariffs actually made the deficit spike.Recorded at the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, on July 21, 2026.Mises University is the world's leading instructional program in the Austrian School of economics, and is the essential training ground for economists who are looking beyond the mainstream.

Jack Schwager joins Excess Returns to discuss Market Wizards: The Next Generation and the extraordinary young traders profiled in the newest installment of the Market Wizards series.He explains how traders turned small accounts into fortunes, survived devastating losses, built exceptional risk-adjusted records and adapted from day trading to longer-term strategies, while revealing the psychology, risk management and commitment behind elite trading performance.Jack Schwager on Xhttps://x.com/jackschwagerMarket Wizards: The Next Generationhttps://amzn.to/4psEOmHTopics coveredHow video games, prop trading firms and modern technology shaped a new generation of tradersHow Jack Schwager finds candidates and verifies extraordinary trading track recordsWhy return-to-risk measures can reveal more than the Sharpe ratioLukas Froelich's astonishing 2020 performance and the limits of compounding and scalabilitySimon Rousseau's journey from a $40,000 borrowed account to nearly $500 millionHow breaking risk rules led to massive losses even after extraordinary successKristjan Kullamägi's path from security guard to more than $100 million after repeated account blowupsPhil Goedeker's success with short selling, option selling and unusually strong risk controlRick Bandazian Jr.'s merger arbitrage edge and more than a decade without a losing monthWhy financial markets may remain uniquely difficult for artificial intelligence to solveLance Breitstein's apprenticeship, deliberate practice and shift from day trading to longer-term positionsWhat traders and long-term investors can learn about talent, discipline, persistence and human natureTimestamps00:00 Intro to Market Wizards: The Next Generation04:33 How Jack finds exceptional traders and how the trading ecosystem changed09:15 Auditing Lukas Froelich's extraordinary 2020 returns14:03 Simon Rousseau: turning $40,000 into nearly $500 million18:42 The $50 million Carvana loss and the danger of breaking trading rules22:54 Kristjan Kullamägi: from security guard to more than $100 million28:36 Phil Goedeker and the risk of negative asymmetry strategies32:41 Hedging option risk during the Liberation Day market selloff37:34 Trading personality and Rick Bandazian Jr.'s no-loss record41:36 Can artificial intelligence ever become a Market Wizard?45:42 Lance Breitstein: choosing mentorship over a higher salary49:42 What long-term investors can learn from elite traders53:52 Innate talent, human nature and all-consuming commitment57:58 What the next generation of trading may look likeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

L'ex amministratore delegato di Autostrade per l Italia, Giovanni Castellucci, è stato condannato a 12 anni di reclusione per il crollo del Ponte Morandi avvenuto il 14 agosto 2018. È questa la sentenza di primo grado emessa dai giudici del Tribunale di Genova. L'ex numero uno di Aspi sta già scontando una condanna per la strage del viadotto di Monteforte Irpino (Avellino) del 2013, in cui perirono 40 persone. I giudici Paolo Lepri (presidente), Ferdinando Baldini e Fulvio Polidori, hanno anche condannato a 11 anni Michele Donferri Mitelli (ex numero tre di Aspi), per cui il pm aveva chiesto 15 anni e sei mesi. Si conclude così un processo in primo grado che si è snodato in 287 udienze. Alla sbarra, in attesa delle decisioni dei giudici , 57 imputati, tra i quali Giovanni Castellucci che, ai tempi del disastro, era amministratore delegato di Autostrade per l Italia. Per gli imputati, i Pm hanno chiesto 400 anni di carcere complessivi e un assoluzione. E la pena più alta, 18 anni e sei mesi, era stata chiesta proprio per l ex ad. Ne parliamo con Raoul de Forcade, Il Sole 24 Ore.Quando la difesa diventa infrastrutturaIl vertice NATO di Ankara ha confermato che il rafforzamento della difesa europea non passa soltanto dall'acquisto di sistemi d'arma, ma anche dalla disponibilità di capacità produttiva, reti logistiche, comunicazioni sicure e infrastrutture in grado di continuare a funzionare sotto pressione. È questo il significato più ampio della resilienza: non solo respingere una minaccia, ma impedire che un attacco, un sabotaggio o un'interruzione prolungata paralizzino il funzionamento di un Paese. Il quadro di riferimento resta quello fissato al vertice NATO dell'Aia del giugno 2025 e riconfermato ad Ankara: gli alleati si sono impegnati a portare la spesa complessiva al 5% del PIL entro il 2035, di cui almeno il 3,5% per la difesa in senso stretto e fino all'1,5% per spese di difesa e sicurezza allargata che comprendono esplicitamente la protezione delle infrastrutture critiche, la difesa delle reti, la resilienza civile e il rafforzamento della base industriale.Una rete elettrica, per esempio, non è un sistema d'arma, ma senza elettricità non funzionano basi militari, ospedali, telecomunicazioni, data center, aeroporti, porti, ferrovie, industrie e sistemi di pagamento. Le reti europee sono già sottoposte a investimenti significativi per sostenere l'elettrificazione, l'integrazione delle fonti rinnovabili e la crescente domanda dei data center; a queste esigenze si aggiunge ora la necessità di proteggere il sistema da blackout, cyberattacchi, sabotaggi e shock energetici. Approfondiamo il tema con Giacomo Calef, co-fondatore di Rheos Partners.Troppo caldo: in Italia a rischio 126 miliardi di Pil in 5 anniIl caldo estremo è ormai un rischio strutturale crescente soprattutto per l'Europa e in particolare per i Paesi del Sud Europa. Dal 1980 a oggi, gli eventi di stress termico sono aumentati di sette volte, mentre la mortalità media per evento è quintuplicata. L'Europa concentra un numero elevato di vittime: Italia, Francia, Spagna e Germania rappresentano insieme circa il 50% dei decessi globali legati alle ondate di calore registrati nel database analizzato. L'Italia da sola pesa per circa il 18% della mortalità mondiale censita. Secondo lo studio di Allianz Trade, oltre la soglia dei 30°C gli effetti economici del caldo peggiorano rapidamente. Ogni grado aggiuntivo tra 30°C e 35°C riduce la produzione oraria media di circa il 3%, mentre il consumo energetico aumenta dell'1,2% per grado a causa della maggiore domanda di raffrescamento. Gli economisti di Allianz Trade sottolineano che l'Europa è particolarmente vulnerabile perché dispone ancora di una diffusione limitata dell'aria condizionata: circa il 19% delle abitazioni contro il 90% degli Stati Uniti. Nello scenario elaborato per il periodo 2026-2030 basato sulla ripetizione degli anni più caldi registrati nell'ultimo decennio i costi macroeconomici risultano molto elevati. Le perdite cumulative di PIL potrebbero raggiungere: 206 miliardi di euro in Francia; 126 miliardi di euro in Italia; 112 miliardi di euro in Germania; 103 miliardi di euro in Spagna. Per Italia, Francia e Spagna ciò equivale a una riduzione cumulativa del PIL compresa tra il 5% e il 7% rispetto allo scenario climatico storico. Ne parliamo con Andrea Resteghini, Head of Credit Underwriting ( capo dei rischi ) Italia e MMEA Allianz Trade.«Dazi, tariffe illegali» e gli Usa rimborsano alle aziende 81 miliardiDonald Trump aveva promesso che i superdazi avrebbero riportato le fabbriche in America, ridotto il deficit federale e costretto il resto del mondo a negoziare alle condizioni di Washington. Ma la realtà dei conti pubblici si sta rivelando molto diversa. Il Tesoro americano ha rivelato di aver già restituito 81 miliardi di dollari alle aziende che avevano versato dazi poi dichiarati illegittimi dalla Corte Suprema. È la prima volta che vengono quantificati i rimborsi già effettuati, una cifra enorme che cancella una parte consistente degli incassi ottenuti con la politica protezionistica dell'Amministrazione Trump e contribuisce ad allargare il profondo rosso del bilancio federale.Negli Usa il contraccolpo delle scelte di Trump è forte e si avverte soprattutto sul piano giuridico e fiscale. I rimborsi riguardano i cosiddetti dazi del «Liberation Day» annunciati da Trump nell'aprile del 2025 e imposti sulla base dell'International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), una legge del 1977 che attribuisce al presidente poteri straordinari in caso di emergenza nazionale. La Casa Bianca sosteneva che gli squilibri commerciali costituivano un'emergenza tale da giustificare un dazio minimo di almeno il 10% sulle importazioni provenienti da quasi tutto il mondo, accompagnato da tariffe molto più elevate nei confronti di numerosi partner commerciali, a partire dalla Cina. Lo scorso febbraio, però, la Corte Suprema, con una maggioranza di sei giudici contro tre, ha stabilito che quella legge non autorizzava il presidente a imporre una tassa generalizzata sulle importazioni. Secondo i giudici, Trump aveva oltrepassato i limiti dei poteri affidatigli dal Congresso e l'Amministrazione è stata chiamata a restituire alle imprese il denaro già incassato. I nuovi dati del Tesoro mostrano per la prima volta l'entità dei rimborsi già effettuati. Dall'inizio dell'anno fiscale il governo ha restituito 81 miliardi di dollari, contro i circa 5 miliardi che vengono normalmente rimborsati ogni anno per contenziosi e rettifiche doganali. Approfondiamo il tema con Massimo Fabio, Partner KPMG, EMEA Regional Leader Trade & Customs services.

Cape Gun Works owner and founder of The Civil Rights Coalition Toby Leary joins Cam with his reaction to SCOTUS taking up an "assault weapon" case, and what CGW is doing for customers in anticipation of "Liberation Day."

De S&P 500 staat op 17 procent winst sinds april. De Nasdaq en Dow Jones hebben hun beste eerste jaarhelft sinds 2021 achter de rug. En beurzen in Taiwan en Zuid-Korea breken records uit de jaren '90. Het tweede kwartaal was er een voor in de geschiedenisboeken, als je naar de cijfers kijkt. Maar zijn de verwachtingen daarmee ook té hoog opgelopen? Dat zoeken we deze aflevering uit. Verder vieren we het einde van een tijdperk. We knopen een strik om de handelsoorlog tussen de VS en de EU. De EU sluit af met een verlaging van importheffingen op Amerikaanse goederen en zelfs geen importheffingen op kreeften. Je hoort waarom dat nou juist nog belangrijk is. Je komt ook te weten of het goed of slecht nieuws is dat de Franse inflatie als verrassing flink is gedaald. De energieprijzen zakten en trokken zo de uitgaven van consumenten met zich mee. Een meevaller zou je zeggen, maar het werpt ook de vraag op of de ECB de rente niet te snel weer heeft verhoogd. Tot slot hebben we het nog over Fed-bestuurder Lisa Cook. Die mag gewoon haar werk blijven doen. En over een inval bij Super Micro Computer, de hoofdverdachte in de smokkel van Nvidia-chips naar China. Te gast: Mike Mulders van ING Investment Office BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Je hoort hem ook in de BNR-podcast Moerdijk: dorp van de rekening. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is Israel ready for $200 a barrel oil if they keep fighting? American culture is nothing like the culture in most parts of the world. Barbarians are in the country. Bill Casady said what to Trump? Liberation Day for RINOs. The fraud that no one wants to talk about.Follow The Jesse Kelly Show on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheJesseKellyShowSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The eye-watering “Liberation Day” trade tariffs that Trump unleashed on the world on April 2, 2025, are about to expire after the US Supreme Court ruled the President had overstepped his powers. But the damage they've caused continues to reverberate. For economists, Trump's tariffs began World War Trade, a dangerous new era of predatory trade and protectionism. How did tariffs become Trump's weapon of choice? And is his trade war a total bust? Professor of international economics at IMD Business School Richard Baldwin unpacks the truth about Trump's tariff policy with Emma Kennedy. • Special offer! Get 20% off any vehicle history check at carVertical.com/TheBunker • Read Richard's book World War Trade: Conflict, Containment and the Emergent World Trading Order • Back us on Patreon – www.patreon.com/bunkercastWritten and presented by Emma Kennedy. Producer: James Liddell. Audio production: Robin Leeburn. Managing Editor: Jacob Jarvis. Group Editor: Andrew Harrison. Music by Kenny Dickinson. THE BUNKER is a Podmasters Production.www.podmasters.co.uk Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

 President Trump’s most prized word is ‘tariffs’ and on Liberation Day he extolled their virtues and told us that this would usher in a new era of reshoring and renewal of the manufacturing sector. He has also touted $18 trillion dollars in manufacturing investments here in the United States, but according to our guest that has yet to result in shovels in the ground.  After a year of on again, off again tariffs and testy interplay with allies on many of the levies, is it having the desired effect of creating new investment and employment in the manufacturing sector?  Our guest, Paul Lavoie is the vice president for Innovation, Corporate Partnerships and Career Success at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.  As the State of Connecticut’s former chief manufacturing officer, he was named one of top 5 Chief Manufacturing Officers in the world.  He answers a range of questions about the current manufacturing policy in the United States and offers his six steps to bend the curve back toward growth in that sector of our economy.

In this episode, we kick things off at the nation's busiest container gateway, where frontloading is fueling a massive early peak season surge. The Port of Los Angeles handled over 840,000 TEUs in May, up seventeen percent from a year ago, driven by strong inventory replenishment, concerns about fuel costs, trade-policy uncertainty, and preparation for upcoming retail seasons. Loaded imports surged twenty-six percent year-over-year, rebounding sharply from May 2025 when import traffic was severely undercut by Liberation Day tariffs on China. Meanwhile, the truckload market's upswing is officially ushering in driver pay hikes across the sector. Joliet-based carrier GP Transco increased pay for all company drivers by five cents per mile, pushing the upper end to seventy-two cents per mile, while Dubuque's Hirschbach announced a ten-cent per mile increase for over-the-road drivers. A supply-led trucking recovery has prompted the need for enhanced driver pay and perks, with heightened regulatory enforcement purging noncompliant drivers from the market since last fall. Finally, the Federal Railroad Administration is greenlighting expanded testing of high-tech track inspection systems as Class I railroads prepare for a major safety upgrade. The FRA recently approved a five-year waiver that lets railroads expand the use of Automated Track Inspection technology, which uses lasers, cameras, sensors, and ground-penetrating radar to scan tracks for defects. CSX plans to start using the waiver on July first, deploying the technology across over three thousand route miles, with early data showing ATI reduces track geometry defects by ninety percent in some cases. Follow the FreightWaves NOW Podcast Other FreightWaves Shows Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team digs into the technical setup in regionals and biotech as potential breakout catalysts, the SpaceX IPO mechanics and where retail may get trapped, and how to distinguish a durable market super cycle from a dangerous earnings bubble given historically narrow leadership. They also tackle a stronger-than-expected payrolls print that reshuffled the Fed outlook, Neil Dutta's skepticism on AI-driven productivity gains, the FHFA/DNI reshuffle and what it means for Fannie and Freddie, and whether the Trump-China relationship has turned a corner on trade and Iran.

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Matthew Tuttle to the show. Matthew is the CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, a firm that focuses on breaking away from conventional Wall Street wisdom by using its own ETFs that target new investment opportunities.   Matthew kicks things off by discussing the "death of value investing" and what he believes is contributing to it. First, with the advent of the Internet, information was more accessible to ordinary people, so a lot of the edge from learning crucial details was lost. Second, folks lost interest in value investing. When COVID-19 struck, a lot of new investors spent their stimulus checks on meme stocks instead of solid companies. But while Matthew thinks it's dead, he says the new value stocks are in heavy assets, low obsolescence ("HALO") investing. These are stocks with physical assets, so it's unlikely that even AI could disrupt them. (0:00)   Next, Matthew shares his disdain for exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"). He believes the majority of them "stink" and that if investors want to invest in a theme, they should completely invest in that theme. The problem, he says, is that Magnificent Seven companies are added to an ETF with the businesses having little relation to the theme, and you're probably holding them in several places. Additionally, there are "way too many ETFs, way too many indexes, [and] way too many... investment ideas" that folks are buying into. But one of the bigger problems is that ETFs are being advertised to individual investors using "marketable" people rather than proven and tested portfolio managers. (13:03)   Finally, Matthew shares the framework behind his hedging and asymmetry strategy. With hedging, you want to limit your tailing risk. However, Matthew says that bonds are not a proper hedge, and points out how "Liberation Day" and the Iran conflict saw bonds sell in tandem with stocks. With asymmetry, the idea is to limit your losses instead of your gains. Matthew says that all the top investors he has spoken with had their own methods that made them lots of money when their ideas were correct, but they only lost a little bit of money when they were wrong. It's important that you also set up your strategy work the same way. And Matthew says that going down the supply chain of breakthrough companies helps you find the best investing opportunities. (33:40)

Jim talked with Cory Doctorow—prolific sci-fi and nonfiction author, journalist, activist, EFF special adviser, and author of Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It—about how structural forces degraded the internet, and what citizens (not consumers) can actually do about it. They discussed: The origin of "enshittification"—Cory's January 2023 blog post, its viral spread, and its naming as Word of the Year by the American Dialect Society Two-sided markets & the persistence of intermediaries Crad Kilodney as a self-publishing illustration, and why platform middlemen survive even when they shouldn't Monopsony vs. monopoly The real statistics of Amazon's dominance of book sales The three-stage enshittification life cycle, using Facebook as the case study The brittle equilibrium of late-stage enshittification—the thin line between "I hate this but can't leave" and mass exodus The metaverse as Facebook's terminal pivot—Zuckerberg's "legless, sexless, low-polygon" avatar world stolen from a 25-year-old cyberpunk novel, and why it still served him by forestalling investor sell-offs Zuckerberg as Rich Uncle Pennybags, not Willy Wonka Amazon's early history & Bezos's "your margin is my opportunity" mantra Amazon's junk fees (now 50–60% and rising) and the $80 billion/year advertising payola business The consumer welfare doctrine—Robert Bork's antitrust theory that monopoly is efficient, and why allowing monopsonies inevitably produces monopolies Jim's personal experience with the Thomson-West legal publishing merger Tech workers as a structural check on enshittification The convergence enabling enshittification: merger to monopoly → regulatory capture → loss of worker leverage → DMCA blocking entrants → abuse The moral decay of business culture—from "we won't do profitable things we think are wrong," to "do whatever's arguably legal," to "do whatever's illegal if the fine is less than the benefit" Google's $20 billion/year payment to Apple to stay off the search market Why predatory pricing cases went unenforced What citizens (not consumers) can do The death of federal antitrust enforcement and international ripple effects State-level antitrust action as a remaining avenue The right to repair as an easy entry point Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs as a paradoxical opportunity Tech as geopolitical weapon—Microsoft accounts bricked for a Brazilian judge who sentenced Bolsonaro; the ICC chief prosecutor's accounts shut down after the Netanyahu arrest warrant The vision for open, auditable, sovereign digital public goods to replace the enshittified American Internet—run internationally, controlled locally … and much more. Links Episode Transcript Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It, by Cory Doctorow The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI: How to Think About Artificial Intelligence Before It's Too Late, by Cory Doctorow Radicalized, by Cory Doctorow The Internet Con, by Cory Doctorow The Bezzle, by Cory Doctorow "TikTok's enshittification," by Cory Doctorow Pluralistic.net Electronic Frontier Foundation Bio Cory Doctorow is a science fiction author, activist, and journalist. He is the author of many books, including the forthcoming The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI: How to Think About Artificial Intelligence Before It's Too Late. Previous works include Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It, the subject of this interview; The Internet Con: How to Seize the Means of Computation, a Big Tech disassembly manual; Red Team Blues, a science fiction crime thriller; Chokepoint Capitalism, nonfiction about monopoly and creative labor markets; the Little Brother series for young adults; In Real Life, a graphic novel; and the picture book Poesy the Monster Slayer. In 2020, he was inducted into the Canadian Science Fiction and Fantasy Hall of Fame.

Diogo Pimentel, analista de Magallanes Value Investors, desgranó en TDND las claves de su tesis de inversión en promotoras residenciales británicas El mercado de la vivienda en el Reino Unido atraviesa una de sus crisis más profundas de las últimas décadas. Los tipos de interés a diez años rondan el 5,10%, su nivel más alto desde el verano de 2008, mientras que los de treinta años han alcanzado cotas no vistas desde 1998. Pero precisamente ahí, donde muchos inversores ven peligro, Magallanes Value Investors ve una oportunidad. Diogo Pimentel, miembro del equipo de análisis e inversión de la gestora española, explicó en el programa Tu Dinero Nunca Duerme, presentado por Luis F. Quintero junto a Domingo Soriano y Manuel Llamas, los fundamentos de su apuesta por las constructoras cotizadas británicas. Pimentel abrió su intervención con una reflexión sobre la filosofía de inversión de Magallanes. "Cuando pasa un Liberation Day, un Brexit, un COVID, es cuando te empiezan a arreglar todo el trabajo que has tenido. Estamos dispuestos a esperar cinco o siete años", explicó. La gestora mantiene habitualmente una posición de caja de en torno al 8% precisamente para aprovechar esas ventanas de oportunidad. "Es como tener la portería vacía y disparar desde el punto de penalti sin portero", ilustró Pimentel, aficionado confeso al Benfica. La tesis de inversión en el sector residencial británico se articula sobre cuatro pilares. El primero es el macroeconómico: la subida agresiva de tipos ha penalizado duramente a todo el sector inmobiliario en el Reino Unido, arrastrando las valoraciones de las promotoras cotizadas a niveles que, a juicio de Magallanes, no reflejan su valor real. El segundo pilar es el desequilibrio estructural entre oferta y demanda. Los datos son elocuentes: entre 2006 y 2019, el Reino Unido formó una media de 200.000 nuevos hogares al año, pero solo construyó 160.000 viviendas. El déficit acumulado se acerca ya a las 600.000 unidades. Y la tendencia no mejora: el Instituto de Estadística británico estima que hasta 2029 se seguirán formando 190.000 hogares anuales, mientras la producción actual apenas alcanza 150.000 viviendas. El gobierno de Keir Starmer se ha fijado el objetivo de llegar a 300.000 viviendas anuales para el periodo 2025-2029, lo que implicaría duplicar la construcción en apenas cuatro años. El tercer pilar es regulatorio. La tramitación de licencias urbanísticas ha sido históricamente un cuello de botella comparable al español. Sin embargo, en diciembre se aprobó en el Reino Unido una nueva ley de planificación que busca replicar el modelo irlandés, donde la flexibilización de permisos ha transformado radicalmente el sector. Si la reforma surte efecto, las promotoras podrían reducir sus reservas de suelo de seis a tres años, liberando capital significativo para los accionistas. En el caso de Persimmon, la compañía en la que Magallanes ha tomado posición, ese suelo tiene un valor en libros de 2.500 millones de libras sobre un valor de mercado de 3.500 millones. El cuarto pilar es el programa Help to Buy, que entre 2013 y 2022 financiaba el 20% inicial de la compra de vivienda nueva para los jóvenes y llegó a respaldar entre el 30 y el 35% de todas las transacciones del sector. Su suspensión en 2022, en plena tormenta fiscal del gobierno de Liz Truss, golpeó duramente la demanda. Pimentel considera que la presión política y social acabará forzando su reactivación: "Alguien querrá llevarse el crédito de haber facilitado el acceso a la vivienda a los jóvenes", señaló. Tras analizar en profundidad Berkeley, Barratt y Persimmon, Magallanes eligió esta última como vehículo para ejecutar su tesis. Una apuesta de largo plazo sobre un problema que, como subrayó Pimentel, no es exclusivo del Reino Unido: es el drama habitacional de toda una generación.

It's been over a year since Trump's “Liberation Day” when he rolled out his global tariffs, but the Supreme Court struck those down resulting in chaos and confusion about what happens next. Guest Host Catherine Rampell, of The Bulwark and MSNOW, welcomes Scott Lincicome, VP of economics at the Cato Institute, to try to make sense of how the 166 billion dollars in tariffs will be refunded to businesses that were impacted. Catherine and Scott break down the bureaucratic red tape of the refund process, why small businesses are once again getting left behind, and the valid fears of political retaliation that are keeping major corporations silent.And with the U.S. government taking multi-billion-dollar equity stakes in everything from steel mills to quantum computing, we discuss the rise of “state capitalism.” It's not exactly the free market that Republicans have been cheering for generations. Plus, after Trump's landmark trip to China, many Americans are experiencing what Scott calls “China envy.”READ Catherine's writing in The Bulwark: https://substack.com/@catherinerampell/postsREAD Scott's writing: https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome

Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

In the year since Donald Trump's “liberation day” in April 2024 fewer Americans are now working, and inflation-adjusted hourly earnings are still below where they were in 2021.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/job-market-has-only-gotten-worse-trumps-liberation-day

In the year since Donald Trump's “liberation day” in April 2024 fewer Americans are now working, and inflation-adjusted hourly earnings are still below where they were in 2021.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/job-market-has-only-gotten-worse-trumps-liberation-day

A quick update from Katy about crowds in Italy. You may have seen huge crowds at popular tourist destinations like Rome, Florence and Cinque Terre last weekend. We have thought on this.Summary: Last week was a long weekend for May Day in Europe plus in Italy the week coincided with Liberation Day making it a super long weekend so crowds were predictable. Katy shares how to plan around these key moments each year and if you can't avoid them what to do.PS - The Untold Italy app premium version is on sale until May 8 

Text of the episode: https://tinyurl.com/WSSI2TXT Matteo brings us another wonderful report from Italy and the Mediterranean region on the days leading up to May Day, as well as what happened on the day itself. He tells the story of Liberation Day, the defense of the flotilla to Palestine, and May Day and the inspirational actions of workers fighting against imperialism, genocide, and for a better world. We also learn about what a CSA (Centro Sociale Autogestito) is in Italy and its importance to the workers' struggle. Join the discord: discord.gg/tDvmNzX Follow the pod at instagram.com/workstoppage, @WorkStoppagePod on Twitter,  John @facebookvillain, and Lina @solidaritybee

The dollar erased every war gain, oil's back above $102, yields are at 4.5%, and mining stocks just gave you the buying opportunity of the year. Gold settled the week at $4,612 with silver at $75.33, both drifting lower as investor attention shifted to record-high stock indexes. Mining stocks took the hardest hit with GDX down 6.25% — a buying opportunity Peter Schiff says is being created by the same complacency that preceded every major gold breakout. The dollar index fell to 97.7, erasing every penny gained since the Iran war began — a historically weak bounce for a supposed safe haven currency. Oil climbed back above $102 while 30-year Treasury yields touched 4.5%, recreating the exact conditions that forced Trump to reverse Liberation Day tariffs. Schiff revisits Powell's claim of 40 years of controlled inflation, breaking it down decade by decade to show average CPI of 5.5% in the '80s, 3% in the '90s, and 2.6% in the 2000s — with only the post-crisis 2010s near the 2% target. He also highlights the Bitcoin conference where last year's darling Nakamoto is down 99% between conferences, while this year's pitch of "digital credit" is even worse than subprime.

The news cycle will not save you. This month, Dr. David J. Johns breaks down the stories that slid quietly past the headlines while our communities' futures were being decided. We open with a win—the Global Black Economic Forum sued the state of Texas for stripping HUB certifications from 15,000 minority- and women-owned businesses, and on April 13th, a Travis County judge said: not so fast. Then we get to work: voting rights under coordinated assault, the weaponization of an 1866 civil rights law against Black scholarship programs, the true cost of Liberation Day's tariffs on working families, a 100% pharmaceutical tariff arriving September 29th, and the faith-rooted organizing happening right now across 10 cities that nobody's covering. Class is in session. Pull up.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/teach-the-babies-w-dr-david-j-johns--6173854/support.

The dollar erased every war gain, oil's back above $102, yields are at 4.5%, and mining stocks just gave you the buying opportunity of the year.Gold settled the week at $4,612 with silver at $75.33, both drifting lower as investor attention shifted to record-high stock indexes. Mining stocks took the hardest hit with GDX down 6.25% — a buying opportunity Peter Schiff says is being created by the same complacency that preceded every major gold breakout.The dollar index fell to 97.7, erasing every penny gained since the Iran war began — a historically weak bounce for a supposed safe haven currency. Oil climbed back above $102 while 30-year Treasury yields touched 4.5%, recreating the exact conditions that forced Trump to reverse Liberation Day tariffs. Schiff revisits Powell's claim of 40 years of controlled inflation, breaking it down decade by decade to show average CPI of 5.5% in the '80s, 3% in the '90s, and 2.6% in the 2000s — with only the post-crisis 2010s near the 2% target. He also highlights the Bitcoin conference where last year's darling Nakamoto is down 99% between conferences, while this year's pitch of "digital credit" is even worse than subprime.Chapters:00:00 Welcome and Subscribe00:25 Gold Silver Weekly Recap01:08 Mining Stocks and Fund Plug02:00 Why Gold Bullish Now03:14 Stocks High Oil Yields Rising06:27 Fed Presser and Powell Exit10:05 Money Supply Inflation Reality17:32 Debt Deficits and Fed Failure19:54 Tariffs Cars and Stagflation22:48 Bitcoin Strategy Ponzi Talk24:30 Dollar Weak Bonds to Gold27:19 Gold Targets and Crypto Risks29:15 Schiff Gold App Call to Buy30:58 Wrap Up and Where to FollowFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffGet more gold & silver now: https://www.schiffgold.com1-888-GOLD-160 (465-3160)Open a T Gold account: https://www.tgold.comOpen a managed account: https://europac.comListen to The Peter Schiff Show: https://schiffradio.comFollow the main channel: https://youtube.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #GoldInvesting #FridayMarketWrapOur Sponsors:* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Story of the Week (DR):Happy (?) May Day MMMay Day 2026: Top CEO pay increased 20 times faster than workers' pay in 2025Rivian Sold 42,247 Cars And Paid Its CEO [RJ Scaringe] $403 Million, Or 15 Jim FarleysComcast Co-CEO Mike Cavanagh Lands $72 Million Pay Package For 2025Google co-founder [Sergey Brin] rips California billionaire tax: 'I fled socialism'ONE-TIME wealth tax: The proposal would impose a 5% tax on net worth above the $1 billion threshold for people who were California residents as of Jan. 1, 2026, with some assets like real estate and certain retirement accounts excluded~$13B, with certain exclusions this figure could drop to $9B (the approximate value of his real estate empire)This is the equivalent of $2,500 if you earn $50,000Ken Griffin slams Mamdani for singling him out as a 'profound lack of judgment,' ripping socialist bentBill Ackman to New York City Mayor Mamdani: Don't scare away the billionaires CEOs got millions after boards ‘neutralized' the impact of tariffs. Some won't say what it was worthRTX CEO Christopher Calio: $27.7 million in compensation last yearAt its January 2025 board meeting, the compensation committee of RTX pre-authorized the removal of tariff impacts on business metrics related to Calio's pay months before President Trump announced a set of sweeping Liberation Day tariffs on April 2, 2025 that upended global supply chains. The RTX comp committee said that the tariff-cost impact “should be neutralized” for determining annual bonus payouts because the tariffs were “externally imposed, unpredictable and unrelated to operational execution.”Calio's annual bonus hit $5.1 million, an 85% increase over the $2.76 million the company paid him the year beforeHow much of that growth was attributable to the tariff exclusion, RTX did not discloseWe spoke to over 30 CEOs and business leaders. Here's what worries them mostA world of constant shocksSupply chains are under strain and getting costlierInflation is testing the consumerAI is an opportunity, but also a threatCyber and trust are keeping CEOs upEnergy security is back at the centerThe leadership playbook is changingThe 'Dirty Secret' Behind AI Layoffs: Forrester Warns Tech Is Often Non-ExistentForrester finds most firms citing AI for job cuts lack the systems to back it up, deepening mistrust over how and why people are being let goExecutives are increasingly blaming artificial intelligence for sweeping layoffs even when the technology is barely in place, Forrester has warned, with analyst J.P. Gownder saying that in 'nine out of 10' such cases the AI capability behind those cuts simply does not existMeta says it doesn't know its ideal size as it prepares to lay off 10% of its staffBed Bath & Beyond CEO: AI will lead to ‘significant reduction in headcount'Sam Altman says he is 'deeply sorry' for failing to alert police ahead of mass shootingSam Altman Issues Grim ApologySam Altman is “the face of evil” for not reporting school shooter, says lawyerSam Altman apologized to the people of Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia, because OpenAI had flagged and banned the suspect's ChatGPT account but did not alert police before the mass shootingApril 28, 2026: Our commitment to community safety“We assume the best of our users, but when we detect that someone is attempting to use our tools to potentially plan or carry out violence, we take action, including revoking access to OpenAI's services.”“We use automated detection systems to identify potentially concerning activity at scale.”“When an account or conversation is flagged, it is assessed in context by trained personnel. These human reviewers are trained on our policies and protocols, and operate within established privacy and security safeguards”“When conversations indicate an imminent and credible risk of harm to others, we notify law enforcement.”Zero mention of the Tumbler Ridge massacre, the apology, the lawsuits, etc.Elon Musk's trial against Sam Altman to reveal the ongoing power struggle for OpenAIMusk is suing Altman, OpenAI, and Microsoft over the claim that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit, “benefit humanity” mission and instead became a profit machine, while OpenAI says Musk is really trying to slow a competitor he helped createThe courtroom tone has been described as unusually messy and theatrical, with the judge reportedly telling both sides to stop acting out on social mediaThe judge told Musk to cool it on the “robot apocalypse” and “Terminator” talk.Musk lawyer says OpenAI 'stole a charity,' as trial against AI firm, Sam Altman beginsWorld's Richest Man, Least Generous? Elon Musk Tops Forbes 'Least Philanthropic' ListForbes' analysis concludes that Elon Musk has given around $500 million 'directly to those in need' — a sum that sounds enormous in isolation yet, by the magazine's maths, represents just 0.06 per cent of his reported wealth. In other words, for every $1,000 attached to his name on paper, roughly 60 cents has so far gone, in clear line of sight, to people or causes that can be classed as receiving direct help.Jerome Powell says he will continue to serve as a Fed governor, calls Trump criticism 'unprecedented'Powell says he's staying on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends, which blocks Trump from simply creating an empty seatPowell says the pressure campaign is unprecedented and threatens the Fed's independence.Bessent Says Powell Staying On Is ‘Violation' of All Fed Norms“It's highly unusual for someone who says he's an institutionalist and cares about norms at the Fed. This is a violation of all Federal Reserve norms.”“I think it is an insult to Kevin Warsh, Miki [Michelle] Bowman and Chris Waller to think that these other Republican nominees do not care about the institution of the Fed and that he alone can maintain the integrity of the Fed.”Trump Takes a ‘Wrecking Ball' to Independent Scientific Advisory BoardThe DEI death blow: “We Could See the Largest Drop in Black Representation Since the End of Reconstruction”Much like dual class shares: The erosion of the Voting Rights Act directly dilutes the collective political power of Black communitiesThomas Dartmouth Rice ("The two most popular characters in the world at the present time are [Queen] Victoria and Jim Crow.") received some formal education in his youth, but ceased in his teenage years when he acquired an apprenticeship with a woodcarver named DodgePentagon inks deals with seven AI companies for classified military workOpenAI, Google, Nvidia and others agreed to ‘any lawful use' of their tech. Anthropic, feuding with Pentagon over potential AI misuse, was not includedGoodliest of the Week (MM/DR):DR: France unveils plan to ditch all fossil fuels by 2050a “first of its kind” plan to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and gas by 2050 during a global conference aimed at breaking reliance on fossil fuelsMM: War on Social Media: Greece to ban anonymity on social media DRI seriously might move to GreeceMeta's threat to quit New Mexico ‘is showing the world how little it cares about child safety,' AG saysAssholiest of the Week (MM):Disney's spineless chair James Gorman DRABC can beat Trump FCC's license threat if owner Disney is willing to fightThe man who was the savior picking the new CEO, when asked what he thinks of the attack on Kimmel and Disney's ABC (again), said, “It's the job of the CEO with their team to figure out the right answer and they'll be guided by the board”, and then declined to say what advice he or the board would give regarding the “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” show.“We have a terrific new CEO, Josh D'Amaro, he's world class so I'm sure he'll rise to the occasion and do what the right thing is.”Here's a glow up of Gorman choosing the new CEO:James P. Gorman, former head of Morgan Stanley, became Disney's chairman a year ago with succession at the top of his to-do list. The 67-year-old Australia native comes with strong opinions and sterling credentials: He helped stabilize, then revitalize the Wall Street bank during his 14 years in the C-suite, retiring in December 2024 after orchestrating a seamless baton pass.“I don't know that there's anyone who could have navigated these kinds of leadership transitions better than James,” Wharton School Dean Erika H. James said in an interview. “He's not afraid to do the hard things.”James was on the board of Morgan Stanley with GormanSo the board abdicates all responsibility? They bow out? Without Ken Doll Bob Iger around they have no part to play anymore?“Even after paying off the president last year, ABC is once again under attack by this administration,” Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) wrote yesterday. “This should be a lesson to all who capitulate to the president: You cannot buy his favor, you can only rent it.”Even the fucking CATO INSTITUTE weighed in: FCC's Punitive Review of ABC-Disney's Broadcast Licenses Shows Need to Protect Free Expression“Punishing a media organization, no matter what one thinks of their reporting or programming, is an affront to the right of Americans to speak and listen to whatever speech they wish”AI OverloadPopular pasta sauce brand is launching new device to record conversationsPrego owned by Campbells selling a puck that sits on your dinner table, records the conversation, and offers “conversation prompts”When a soup company thinks the answer to AI in soup is a fucking device sitting on your table, listening to you, when we're already surrounded by our tech overlords doing the same thing, we know we've jumped the sharkChip Wilson and the male CEO industrial complexLululemon Founder Takes Aim at New CEO Pick, Escalates Proxy FightChip uses “governance” as his main angle of attack without acknowledging that 50% of the board he hates, including the chair, HE HAND PICKED HIMSELFWall Street sank the shares more than 13% on the announcement of Heidi O'NeillCritiqued her tenure at Nike pushing “direct to consumer” - without acknowledging that Nike is a dual class controlled company with the company founder's nepo baby on the board AND an executive chair (Mark Parker) AND the current CEO (Elliott Hill)Do you think O'Neill made the decision in a vacuum by herself? She's an NEO under not one but THREE leaders - and in 2025 she got a massive stock award (11.4m) to keep her around. She also has a babysitter - she was head of Consumer, Product, & Brand, but there was Craig Williams, Chief Commercial OfficerIs this anything but fucking white dude manbaby sexists anymore?60% female board who just added another woman of color to go above that, +8% gender power gap, 70% female influence - the analytics suggest they are not deferential to the CEO, the only merit director on the board are womenWhile dude analyst Bill Campbell at Paragon Intel said, “she does not look like the obvious architect of the deeper reset this moment demands,” William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia said, “She brings a significant breadth of knowledge in women's performance apparel and her experience accelerating speed-to-market is particularly welcome at lululemon where lead times have ballooned to about 24 months.”Reading the timeline of interactions, Wilson just sounds like a fucking baby, complaining the board isn't talking to his people enough, they don't respond quickly enough, even as every time he doesn't get his way he publicly says the board sucks but commits to the chair he wants to have “constructive” dialogue. Then the board offers him board seats if he just shuts the fuck up, and he says he won't agree to shut up but they should give him the board seats anyway.Headliniest of the WeekDR: Lululemon's New CEO Is Already in the Hot Seat—and She Hasn't Even StartedMM: 51% of U.S. employees have cried at the office within the last month, according to a new reportWho Won the Week?DR: Only Elon Musk can fire Elon Musk from SpaceX, filing showsMM: Earth - SpaceX ties Musk compensation to Mars colonization goal, which I assume can only mean if Musk himself colonizes Mars he gets paidPredictionsDR: Billionaires start to introduce their own taxes on “normal” people, like: Sidewalk Wear-and-Tear Tax: charged per step, tracked via mandatory Smart Shoes™ and a Public Bench Depreciation Fee: sitting longer than 90 seconds counts as an “asset strain,” tracked via mandatory Smart Boxer Briefs™MM: Because Jamie Dimon says bureaucracy sinks companies and the solution may be getting rid of the ‘jerks' who don't want to solve it, JPMorgan begins firing the 51% of jerks who cried in the office this month.

Trump wants to buy Spirit Airlines at bankruptcy with taxpayer money to "save jobs." That's not capitalism — that's Bernie Sanders with a red tie.- Today's podcasts is sponsored by Pebl. Go to http://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate.- Today's podcast is also sponsored by NetSuite. Download Netsuite's free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://netsuite.com/goldJerome Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair featured a claim that inflation was "under control" for 40 years before the pandemic — a statement Peter Schiff demolishes decade by decade, showing average CPI of 5.5% in the 1980s, 3% in the 1990s, and 2.6% in the 2000s, with only the post-crisis 2010s anywhere near the 2% target.The Fed held rates at 3.5% while oil surged past $108 WTI and $120 Brent, bond yields pushed back toward post-Liberation Day highs with the 30-year hitting 5%, and four FOMC members dissented on the dovish bias. Powell announced he'll stay on the board to protect "Fed independence," but Schiff argues he'll be irrelevant. The episode also covers Trump's plan to buy Spirit Airlines at bankruptcy — proof he doesn't understand capitalism — Michael Saylor's Bitcoin conference keynote pushing Stretch preferred stock as a thinly veiled Ponzi, and explosive IRS FOIA documents proving the agency collaborated with Puerto Rico's SIF to shut down Euro Pacific Bank as a PR stunt, with every email focused on publicity strategy rather than any actual wrongdoing.Chapters:00:00 Cold Open Montage00:58 Fed Holds Rates02:47 Powell Stays On05:07 Fed Independence Debate06:17 Inflation Mandate Critique09:38 Reporters And Data11:04 Decades Of CPI Reality15:01 Ad Break Pebble16:43 Powell On His Record20:04 Inflation Fire Economy Weak21:59 Oil Yields And Markets27:18 Gold Silver And EPAM Pitch29:15 Ad Break NetSuite31:05 Trump Spirit Bailout34:10 Bitcoin Conference Reality Check37:21 Saylor Stretch Digital Credit39:44 Ponzi Claims And Warning42:57 Yield Over Bitcoin43:26 IRS FOIA Fight45:58 Explosive Email Evidence47:02 Debanking Timeline49:55 SIF Findings Breakdown57:42 PR Motive Revealed01:06:47 Press Conference Coordination01:16:43 Why This Matters01:20:08 Puerto Rico Potential01:25:12 Final Call To ActionFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #InflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Pete Carmasino back to the show. Pete is the chief market strategist at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. He's also editor of the Chaikin PowerTactics and Chaikin Power Portfolio newsletters.   Pete kicks things off by discussing the current trends he's seeing. He says that you can't focus on just one area because there are many moving parts that shape the market, including other investors. The goal, he states, is to react to the movements, not predict where things are headed. Predictions can be wrong, and folks who don't react wind up missing out on new opportunities. Pete then shares his investing process. He understands that sectors rotate, and when he sees a shift from one sector to another, he follows the signal on where to start moving money. He also looks at fundamentals and technicals to determine whether the stocks he's looking at are good buys at the moment. And he shares his thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz tension and how things might play out. (0:00)   Next, Pete shares his thoughts on the energy crisis. He says the root cause is less of a supply issue and more of a distribution problem. He believes that properly equipping refineries will encourage miners to produce more oil. According to him, if the supply can increase while conflict tensions decrease, we can have an equilibrium where consumers are comfortable with gas prices and miners are content to continue drilling. Then, he talks about the producers that he finds most promising in several different sectors. (17:05)   Finally, Pete explains how his portfolio works. Using a "top-down analysis," he looks at themes throughout the year to find the best names in the strongest market sectors. He then shifts to the market corrections we've seen since the sell-off from last year's "Liberation Day." But he notes that the big names in the Magnificent Seven didn't recover with the rest of the broader market last November. And that implies that the baton could be getting passed from tech to energy. So he adjusted his portfolio to prepare for a sector rotation. He then wraps things up by stressing the importance of handling risk management in your portfolio. (35:48)

American forces pulled off a daring rescue of a downed U.S. airman in Iran. The Wall Street Journal’s Shelby Holliday breaks down the chain of events. It’s been a year since President Trump’s “Liberation Day,” when he unveiled his signature global tariffs. Courtenay Brown of Axios explains how the tariffs reshaped the American and global economies. Michigan and UConn face off in tonight’s men's NCAA Tournament final. Eddie Pells of the Associated Press previews the matchup. Plus, Pope Leo delivered his first Easter address, and the Artemis II mission prepares to reach the dark side of the moon. Today’s episode was hosted by Cecilia Lei.

Oil hits $112 as Trump vows to bomb Iran into the Stone Age — and the jobs data everyone's celebrating is hiding a collapsing labor market. • Today's podcasts is sponsored by Pebl. Go to http://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate. • Today's podcast is also sponsored by West Red Lake Gold Mines. Ticker WRLGFPeter Schiff records from the British Virgin Islands, breaking down the latest economic data against the backdrop of the escalating Iran war. The March jobs report showed 178,000 jobs added — well above the 51,000 estimate — but Schiff argues the number is misleading, noting that 43% of new jobs were in healthcare, a sign of a sicker nation rather than a stronger economy. He highlights the weakest wage growth in five years at 3.5% year-over-year and the lowest labor force participation in five years at 61.9%.Oil prices surged to $112 per barrel amid Trump's pledge to "bomb Iran back to the Stone Age" over the next two to three weeks, with the service sector PMI falling into contraction at 49.8. Schiff warns that stagflation is now undeniable and that oil-driven inflation will force massive government spending and money printing, ultimately crushing the dollar and sending gold well above $5,000. He criticizes Trump's economic lies, the Supreme Court's ruling striking down Liberation Day tariffs as unconstitutional, Warren Buffett's Fed praise, and growing redemption freezes across investment funds as signs of a brewing financial crisis.Chapters:00:00 Cold Open and Intro00:54 Vacation Setup and Holiday Markets01:52 March Jobs Report Breakdown06:44 Stagflation Signals in PMI and JOLTS08:53 Oil Spike and Fed Policy Link17:02 Weekly Market Wrap Gold Silver Miners21:33 Trump Speech War Escalation Fears30:18 Aftermath Leaving Strait to Allies32:27 NATO Exit Debate33:39 Dollar Risks and Metals34:11 Springsteen Boycott Rant36:27 Liberation Day Reality Check37:47 Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional40:52 Funds Freeze Redemptions43:39 Buffett on Inflation Targets47:05 Fed Enabled Covid Policy51:31 Trump Polls and Midterms57:55 Prepare and Buy Gold01:00:30 Podcast Wrap and TravelFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news#PeterSchiffShow #OilPriceSurge #GoldInvestingOur Sponsors:* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out Grammarly: https://grammarly.com* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/GOLD* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

The President fires Attorney General Pam Bondi; a look at who's on the shortlist to replace her. Then, the U.S. attacks Iran's civilian infrastructure while Iran launches a barrage of missile strikes in the region. Plus, Trump imposes new tariffs on the 1 year anniversary of “Liberation Day”. Catherine Rampell hosts as Peter Baker, Charlie Sykes, Joyce Vance, Ivo Daalder, Natasha Sarin, Brendan Greeley, and Jon Meacham join The 11th Hour this Thursday night. To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Happy first tariff-versary? Despite the fact that many of President Trump's “Liberation Day” tariffs were recently struck down, small businesses across the country are still dealing with the aftermath. On today's show, Kimberly talks with two small business owners: Justine Kahn, founder of Botnia Skincare in Sausalito, CA and Will Sissle, owner of Sissle & Daughters Cheesemongers & Grocers in Portland, ME, about how they've navigated a year of tariffs.

A year ago today, the president pulled out a chart in the now paved-over Rose Garden and set the global economy on fire. He announced his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, which changed a bunch of times before being deemed illegal by the Supreme Court earlier this year. And those tariffs were mostly paid by us — consumers and small businesses. Plus, just how worried should we be about jitters in the private credit market?

Happy first tariff-versary? Despite the fact that many of President Trump's “Liberation Day” tariffs were recently struck down, small businesses across the country are still dealing with the aftermath. On today's show, Kimberly talks with two small business owners: Justine Kahn, founder of Botnia Skincare in Sausalito, CA and Will Sissle, owner of Sissle & Daughters Cheesemongers & Grocers in Portland, ME, about how they've navigated a year of tariffs.

Thursday marks one year since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on basically all imported goods — how time flies! The name of the game was uncertainty: U.S. small businesses pivoted from growth plans to stay-afloat plans, consumers grew gloomy but kept spending, and the U.S. manufacturing sector shed jobs. All while the rest of the world sorta shrugged and moved on. In this episode, we reflect on the year of the tariff.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Thursday marks one year since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on basically all imported goods — how time flies! The name of the game was uncertainty: U.S. small businesses pivoted from growth plans to stay-afloat plans, consumers grew gloomy but kept spending, and the U.S. manufacturing sector shed jobs. All while the rest of the world sorta shrugged and moved on. In this episode, we reflect on the year of the tariff.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Global Head of Private Credit & Equity David Miller discuss the recent pressure on the private credit market, potential risks and opportunities that remain in that space.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. David Miller: And I'm David Miller, Global Head of Private Credit and Equity within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Vishy Tirupattur: Today – the evolving risks and opportunities in private credit. It's Tuesday, March 31st at 10 am In New York. Until recently, private credit was among the fast-growing parts of the financial system. In just over a decade, it went from a niche strategy to a market that's well worth over a trillion dollars. After years of outsized inflows and unusually smooth return, private credit is now in focus, and investors are asking tough questions about liquidity, transparency, and valuation. David, you manage private credit and equity portfolios within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Do you think the industry is facing its first real stress test? And how do you think the industry is faring? David Miller: So, I think private credit has been tested before, you could go back to the GFC. And I know that was a long time ago and the industry was quite a bit smaller. But you could certainly look to the pandemic and the rate shocks of [20]22 - [20]23 as a stress test. And I think private credit performed, you know, quite well through that, despite the initial volatility. We saw some of that recently last year with Liberation Day; and the current environment from a fundamental perspective doesn't feel as bad as those times, and the industry does not feel under that stress. I think the current situation is more of a test of the non-traded BDC structure where roughly 20 percent of direct lending assets sit. And the liquidity provisions in those vehicles are designed to provide some liquidity, but not total liquidity. And so, while I think the vehicles are working as intended, obviously there's been a lot of noise. Vishy Tirupattur: So, I totally agree with you, David. The liquidity provisions that are in these structures are there for a reason; are designed to be that. It's part of the feature and not a bug, precisely to prevent a fire sale of assets. And that really would hurt the overall system. So, we think that there's a greater understanding of this is very much required. David Miller: I think that's right. The limitations on liquidity are there so that the vehicles can operate properly over the long run. When you have illiquid assets, you maintain some liquidity. But clearly those protections are in place so that the vehicle continue to run in ordinary fashion. I think there is a bit of a disconnect, you know, in the media between the sentiment and the fundamentals that are underlying private credit. And yeah, there are concerns about software, and macro, and unseen future risks. But right now, private credit portfolios are performing pretty well. And actually, if you look at 2025 versus [20]24, the metrics were actually improving… Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. I mean, we look at across various metrics, you know, in leverage and coverage metrics, we see overall trends are actually improving. Software [is] very much in focus. Fitch reported, yesterday that, uh, in the last, uh, you know, year to date there have been no software defaults. Another point I would make is there are about 5 percent defaults in – generally speaking – in the private credit space. And the default rates within the software sector is a little bit less than half of that. So, that's an important distinction to make. David Miller: Yeah, I think software is a very interesting and long topic. But generally, our view is: we think that AI is going to be a net tailwind overall for software over time. You know, even factoring in some of the erosion to the SaaS business models, I think well positioned incumbents will get their share of the upside. And so there will be some losers. We think that'll be pretty narrow. But overall, we feel very good about our software book. We've been looking at AI risk for at least three years, when we made loans. And we think that a lot of the embedded enterprise software platforms are going to be net beneficiaries of AI. Vishy Tirupattur: I have slightly different take on the software exposure and all the discussion points on this. The way I think about it is the market assumption is that AI disruption is necessarily going to disrupt all of software companies. And that disruption is imminent. I would push back on both of those points. You know, you could easily imagine that AI will lead to some disruption at some point in the future. But a necessary thing for that to happen is a significant amount of CapEx related to infrastructure to enable AI from innovation to adoption that needs to take place. That will take some time. So, this potential disruption is not imminent. It's potentially coming in the future. But all in, disruption is also not going to be negative. You know, we will have some companies whose business models, who don't have the moats and may not be able to benefit. But on the other hand, as you point out, there will be a number of business models which will actually flourish because of AI adoption and see their margins expand. So, I think I would push back on this notion that's prevalent in the media narrative here. That all AI disruption is imminent and it is all bad. David Miller: I think that's a very good point, and we do believe that there will be dispersion and outcome in private credit portfolios because of some of those facts. And it's really important for managers to have deep experience, not just in software, but any industries that they participate in. And really do very strong credit selection. Vishy Tirupattur: So, another thing that's happening in the private credit space is really the advent of the retail investor into the private credit. What do you think the advent of retail investors had done to the portfolio selection, portfolio construction and credit selection in your portfolios? David Miller: So, for us, we haven't changed our portfolio construction or credit selection process for retail portfolios. They're virtually the same as our institutional portfolios. And that's, you know, based on a lot of diversification, limiting borrower concentration, avoiding cyclicals, et cetera. The one difference that's important for our non-traded BDC is we do have about 10 percent of the portfolio in broadly syndicated loans, to add a little bit more liquidity to the portfolio. But otherwise, they're pretty much the same. I think the biggest impact that we've witnessed over the past few years, where there's been a large inflow of retail capital, has been to push spreads tighter. And weaken some of the terms than they would've otherwise been. There was a lot of capital that needed to be deployed quickly, so we saw that and we're quite cautious. You're seeing that trend reverse now as flows have moderated, and we expect that those trends will result in better pricing and better terms going forward. So, Vishy, how are you thinking about risk in the system now? Are you seeing signs of systemic risk? Or is the pressure more isolated? Vishy Tirupattur: I think the pressure is really more isolated, more focused on the software sector. As we just discussed, it will take time to figure out the winners and losers coming out of this. But that process is really; we think will result in some pickup in default rates. But we think it'll be very concentrated within the software sector. So, when I look back at the systemic risks, the echoes of the financial crisis of 2008 come back, you know. We both have gone through that in different roles, you know. I used to be tall and good looking is before the financial crisis. So, the scars of financial crisis are clearly on upon me now. But I compare these two time periods – and I say in any metric, the risks in the system today are nowhere comparable to the kind of systemic risk that existed back then. You look at the risks, the leverage at the company level. You look at the leverage; the vehicles where credit risk is sitting. Look at the risks and the leverage within the banking system. And the links of the non-banks to banks. All of them put together make us think that the systemic risks are very, very contained. And any allusion to that ‘We are back in 2008,' I would very strongly push back against that illusion. So, David, let me ask you one final question here. If we had to highlight one risk or one opportunity in private credit for investors over the next year, what would it be? David Miller: I think the headlines have covered most of the risks, so I'll go with an opportunity. So, we believe spreads on private credit loans have widened quite a bit for direct lending. Both for non-software and software names. So, for investors looking to deploy new capital or investors who are underweight their target allocations, we think it's an interesting time. But we believe there's also a really nice opportunity in opportunistic or hybrid private credit. And that's coming from borrowers who need more flexible solutions, and that can come from M&A activity, non-dilutive growth capital. Or balance sheet rationalizations where one can inject junior capital to good businesses that have over-levered balance sheets. And you can get paid well for the flexibility and the optionality that's providing equity holders. There's been far less capital raised for these types of opportunities over the last few years, and they're pretty favorable dynamics going forward as demand increases. Vishy Tirupattur: That's very insightful. David, thanks for taking the time to talk. David Miller: Great speaking with you, Vishy. Vishy Tirupattur: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.David Miller is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

After a year of build-up, the Supreme Court has ruled on President Trump's signature Liberation Day tariffs, and it's not the result the president wanted. So, what will happen next? John Carney describes how the president still have many options to impose tariffs and pursue his protectionist plan, and explains what will happen with the $300 billion in tariffs that have already been collected. Then, veteran reporter Mark Halperin dissects the political ramifications of the decision, the White House's strategic pivot to domestic issues, and the Administration's difficulty in converting its biggest wins into long-term polling strength. Watch every episode ad-free on members.charliekirk.com! Get new merch at charliekirkstore.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.