Podcasts about Liberation Day

The desk at RBC Capital Markets that sits behind 90% of Canada's ETF market has a view of where flows are really going — and it's not what most advisors expect.Pierre Daillie sits down with Valerie Grimba, Head of Global ETF Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, for a wide-ranging conversation about the forces quietly reshaping how Canadian advisors build portfolios. Valerie's team serves as designated broker to roughly 300 ETF mandates and acts as authorized participant across the majority of the Canadian ETF market — giving her a real-time, flow-level view of investor behaviour that almost nobody else has. From the structural fracture that 2022 opened in the 60/40 model, to the liquidity misconceptions her desk corrects every single day, to the explosive rise of asset allocation ETFs, covered call strategies, AAA CLOs, and precision thematic plays, this conversation covers the full terrain of where the ETF market stands today — and where it is heading.CHAPTERS00:00 — Introduction: The 60/40 failure and Canada's ETF rebuild 02:11 — Valerie's career arc: Bear Stearns, New York, New Zealand, RBC 04:21 — How the RBC ETF market making desk actually works 05:36 — What a designated broker does — and why it matters 08:18 — Flash crashes, Liberation Day, and ETFs as a release valve 10:08 — The RBC market view: yellow flags, narrow breadth, and a 12–18 month outlook 13:29 — How ETF flows changed: from net outflows in risk-off to rotation 14:05 — Gold: zero correlation, the incongruent timing, and the 2026 outlook 15:40 — Higher for longer: what advisors are missing about the rate environment 17:46 — How 2022 changed advisor behaviour and launched a new ETF ecosystem 21:49 — Covered call ETFs: what advisors are still getting wrong 24:19 — Retail vs. institutional: why retail has been outperforming 25:20 — Private assets in an ETF wrapper: the square peg, round hole problem 31:11 — What RBC looks for before taking on a designated broker mandate 32:28 — The Pac-Man of Canadian ETF flows: asset allocation ETFs 36:29 — CAGE, XEQT, FBAL: who is actually buying all-in-one ETFs 38:58 — TLT as widowmaker and the search for yield without duration risk 40:36 — AAA CLOs, active fixed income, and aggregate bond ETFs 43:07 — CTAs, trend following, and the rise of alternatives in Canada 44:30 — Why GIC sectors are becoming antiquated — and what's replacing them 45:48 — DRAM, memory chips, and the new thematic precision playbook 47:11 — Single stock ETFs: access, covered call overlays, and trade-offs 49:07 — The #1 ETF liquidity misconception — and the three layers advisors need to know 53:28 — Best execution practices: limit orders, timing, and when to call the desk #ETF #CanadianETF #ETFInvesting #PortfolioConstruction #CoveredCallETF #AssetAllocation #XEQT #FixedIncome #AlternativeInvestments #WealthManagement #FinancialAdvisor #InvestmentStrategy #ETFLiquidity #RBCCapitalMarkets #MarketOutlook #ThematicETF #PassiveInvesting #ETFTrading #InsightIsCapital #AdvisorAnalyst

The market reaction to Friday's better-than-expected US jobs report started bad and got worse. The Nasdaq closed down 4.2%, marking its steepest decline since April 2025, following ‘Liberation Day'. The sell-off spread to Asia this morning, where investors slammed the brakes on the red-hot AI rally. South Korea's KOSPI fell by more than 8%, triggering circuit breakers. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, explains why he thinks the latest weakness in tech is a well-deserved pause, and why gold is on the watch list.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (06:44) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis (10:39) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

RenMac small cap strategist Kevin Dempter joins Off-Script to discuss what's driving small cap outperformance since Liberation Day and whether the run has room to go. The team digs into the technical setup in regionals and biotech as potential breakout catalysts, the SpaceX IPO mechanics and where retail may get trapped, and how to distinguish a durable market super cycle from a dangerous earnings bubble given historically narrow leadership. They also tackle a stronger-than-expected payrolls print that reshuffled the Fed outlook, Neil Dutta's skepticism on AI-driven productivity gains, the FHFA/DNI reshuffle and what it means for Fannie and Freddie, and whether the Trump-China relationship has turned a corner on trade and Iran.

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Matthew Tuttle to the show. Matthew is the CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, a firm that focuses on breaking away from conventional Wall Street wisdom by using its own ETFs that target new investment opportunities.   Matthew kicks things off by discussing the "death of value investing" and what he believes is contributing to it. First, with the advent of the Internet, information was more accessible to ordinary people, so a lot of the edge from learning crucial details was lost. Second, folks lost interest in value investing. When COVID-19 struck, a lot of new investors spent their stimulus checks on meme stocks instead of solid companies. But while Matthew thinks it's dead, he says the new value stocks are in heavy assets, low obsolescence ("HALO") investing. These are stocks with physical assets, so it's unlikely that even AI could disrupt them. (0:00)   Next, Matthew shares his disdain for exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"). He believes the majority of them "stink" and that if investors want to invest in a theme, they should completely invest in that theme. The problem, he says, is that Magnificent Seven companies are added to an ETF with the businesses having little relation to the theme, and you're probably holding them in several places. Additionally, there are "way too many ETFs, way too many indexes, [and] way too many... investment ideas" that folks are buying into. But one of the bigger problems is that ETFs are being advertised to individual investors using "marketable" people rather than proven and tested portfolio managers. (13:03)   Finally, Matthew shares the framework behind his hedging and asymmetry strategy. With hedging, you want to limit your tailing risk. However, Matthew says that bonds are not a proper hedge, and points out how "Liberation Day" and the Iran conflict saw bonds sell in tandem with stocks. With asymmetry, the idea is to limit your losses instead of your gains. Matthew says that all the top investors he has spoken with had their own methods that made them lots of money when their ideas were correct, but they only lost a little bit of money when they were wrong. It's important that you also set up your strategy work the same way. And Matthew says that going down the supply chain of breakthrough companies helps you find the best investing opportunities. (33:40)

Jim talked with Cory Doctorow—prolific sci-fi and nonfiction author, journalist, activist, EFF special adviser, and author of Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It—about how structural forces degraded the internet, and what citizens (not consumers) can actually do about it. They discussed: The origin of "enshittification"—Cory's January 2023 blog post, its viral spread, and its naming as Word of the Year by the American Dialect Society Two-sided markets & the persistence of intermediaries Crad Kilodney as a self-publishing illustration, and why platform middlemen survive even when they shouldn't Monopsony vs. monopoly The real statistics of Amazon's dominance of book sales The three-stage enshittification life cycle, using Facebook as the case study The brittle equilibrium of late-stage enshittification—the thin line between "I hate this but can't leave" and mass exodus The metaverse as Facebook's terminal pivot—Zuckerberg's "legless, sexless, low-polygon" avatar world stolen from a 25-year-old cyberpunk novel, and why it still served him by forestalling investor sell-offs Zuckerberg as Rich Uncle Pennybags, not Willy Wonka Amazon's early history & Bezos's "your margin is my opportunity" mantra Amazon's junk fees (now 50–60% and rising) and the $80 billion/year advertising payola business The consumer welfare doctrine—Robert Bork's antitrust theory that monopoly is efficient, and why allowing monopsonies inevitably produces monopolies Jim's personal experience with the Thomson-West legal publishing merger Tech workers as a structural check on enshittification The convergence enabling enshittification: merger to monopoly → regulatory capture → loss of worker leverage → DMCA blocking entrants → abuse The moral decay of business culture—from "we won't do profitable things we think are wrong," to "do whatever's arguably legal," to "do whatever's illegal if the fine is less than the benefit" Google's $20 billion/year payment to Apple to stay off the search market Why predatory pricing cases went unenforced What citizens (not consumers) can do The death of federal antitrust enforcement and international ripple effects State-level antitrust action as a remaining avenue The right to repair as an easy entry point Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs as a paradoxical opportunity Tech as geopolitical weapon—Microsoft accounts bricked for a Brazilian judge who sentenced Bolsonaro; the ICC chief prosecutor's accounts shut down after the Netanyahu arrest warrant The vision for open, auditable, sovereign digital public goods to replace the enshittified American Internet—run internationally, controlled locally … and much more. Links Episode Transcript Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It, by Cory Doctorow The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI: How to Think About Artificial Intelligence Before It's Too Late, by Cory Doctorow Radicalized, by Cory Doctorow The Internet Con, by Cory Doctorow The Bezzle, by Cory Doctorow "TikTok's enshittification," by Cory Doctorow Pluralistic.net Electronic Frontier Foundation Bio Cory Doctorow is a science fiction author, activist, and journalist. He is the author of many books, including the forthcoming The Reverse Centaur's Guide to Life After AI: How to Think About Artificial Intelligence Before It's Too Late. Previous works include Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It, the subject of this interview; The Internet Con: How to Seize the Means of Computation, a Big Tech disassembly manual; Red Team Blues, a science fiction crime thriller; Chokepoint Capitalism, nonfiction about monopoly and creative labor markets; the Little Brother series for young adults; In Real Life, a graphic novel; and the picture book Poesy the Monster Slayer. In 2020, he was inducted into the Canadian Science Fiction and Fantasy Hall of Fame.

In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Matthew Tuttle to the show. Matthew is the CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, a firm that focuses on breaking away from conventional Wall Street wisdom by using its own ETFs that target new investment opportunities.   Matthew kicks things off by discussing the "death of value investing" and what he believes is contributing to it. First, with the advent of the Internet, information was more accessible to ordinary people, so a lot of the edge from learning crucial details was lost. Second, folks lost interest in value investing. When COVID-19 struck, a lot of new investors spent their stimulus checks on meme stocks instead of solid companies. But while Matthew thinks it's dead, he says the new value stocks are in heavy assets, low obsolescence ("HALO") investing. These are stocks with physical assets, so it's unlikely that even AI could disrupt them. (0:00)   Next, Matthew shares his disdain for exchange-traded funds ("ETFs"). He believes the majority of them "stink" and that if investors want to invest in a theme, they should completely invest in that theme. The problem, he says, is that Magnificent Seven companies are added to an ETF with the businesses having little relation to the theme, and you're probably holding them in several places. Additionally, there are "way too many ETFs, way too many indexes, [and] way too many... investment ideas" that folks are buying into. But one of the bigger problems is that ETFs are being advertised to individual investors using "marketable" people rather than proven and tested portfolio managers. (13:03)   Finally, Matthew shares the framework behind his hedging and asymmetry strategy. With hedging, you want to limit your tailing risk. However, Matthew says that bonds are not a proper hedge, and points out how "Liberation Day" and the Iran conflict saw bonds sell in tandem with stocks. With asymmetry, the idea is to limit your losses instead of your gains. Matthew says that all the top investors he has spoken with had their own methods that made them lots of money when their ideas were correct, but they only lost a little bit of money when they were wrong. It's important that you also set up your strategy work the same way. And Matthew says that going down the supply chain of breakthrough companies helps you find the best investing opportunities. (33:40)

Diogo Pimentel, analista de Magallanes Value Investors, desgranó en TDND las claves de su tesis de inversión en promotoras residenciales británicas El mercado de la vivienda en el Reino Unido atraviesa una de sus crisis más profundas de las últimas décadas. Los tipos de interés a diez años rondan el 5,10%, su nivel más alto desde el verano de 2008, mientras que los de treinta años han alcanzado cotas no vistas desde 1998. Pero precisamente ahí, donde muchos inversores ven peligro, Magallanes Value Investors ve una oportunidad. Diogo Pimentel, miembro del equipo de análisis e inversión de la gestora española, explicó en el programa Tu Dinero Nunca Duerme, presentado por Luis F. Quintero junto a Domingo Soriano y Manuel Llamas, los fundamentos de su apuesta por las constructoras cotizadas británicas. Pimentel abrió su intervención con una reflexión sobre la filosofía de inversión de Magallanes. "Cuando pasa un Liberation Day, un Brexit, un COVID, es cuando te empiezan a arreglar todo el trabajo que has tenido. Estamos dispuestos a esperar cinco o siete años", explicó. La gestora mantiene habitualmente una posición de caja de en torno al 8% precisamente para aprovechar esas ventanas de oportunidad. "Es como tener la portería vacía y disparar desde el punto de penalti sin portero", ilustró Pimentel, aficionado confeso al Benfica. La tesis de inversión en el sector residencial británico se articula sobre cuatro pilares. El primero es el macroeconómico: la subida agresiva de tipos ha penalizado duramente a todo el sector inmobiliario en el Reino Unido, arrastrando las valoraciones de las promotoras cotizadas a niveles que, a juicio de Magallanes, no reflejan su valor real. El segundo pilar es el desequilibrio estructural entre oferta y demanda. Los datos son elocuentes: entre 2006 y 2019, el Reino Unido formó una media de 200.000 nuevos hogares al año, pero solo construyó 160.000 viviendas. El déficit acumulado se acerca ya a las 600.000 unidades. Y la tendencia no mejora: el Instituto de Estadística británico estima que hasta 2029 se seguirán formando 190.000 hogares anuales, mientras la producción actual apenas alcanza 150.000 viviendas. El gobierno de Keir Starmer se ha fijado el objetivo de llegar a 300.000 viviendas anuales para el periodo 2025-2029, lo que implicaría duplicar la construcción en apenas cuatro años. El tercer pilar es regulatorio. La tramitación de licencias urbanísticas ha sido históricamente un cuello de botella comparable al español. Sin embargo, en diciembre se aprobó en el Reino Unido una nueva ley de planificación que busca replicar el modelo irlandés, donde la flexibilización de permisos ha transformado radicalmente el sector. Si la reforma surte efecto, las promotoras podrían reducir sus reservas de suelo de seis a tres años, liberando capital significativo para los accionistas. En el caso de Persimmon, la compañía en la que Magallanes ha tomado posición, ese suelo tiene un valor en libros de 2.500 millones de libras sobre un valor de mercado de 3.500 millones. El cuarto pilar es el programa Help to Buy, que entre 2013 y 2022 financiaba el 20% inicial de la compra de vivienda nueva para los jóvenes y llegó a respaldar entre el 30 y el 35% de todas las transacciones del sector. Su suspensión en 2022, en plena tormenta fiscal del gobierno de Liz Truss, golpeó duramente la demanda. Pimentel considera que la presión política y social acabará forzando su reactivación: "Alguien querrá llevarse el crédito de haber facilitado el acceso a la vivienda a los jóvenes", señaló. Tras analizar en profundidad Berkeley, Barratt y Persimmon, Magallanes eligió esta última como vehículo para ejecutar su tesis. Una apuesta de largo plazo sobre un problema que, como subrayó Pimentel, no es exclusivo del Reino Unido: es el drama habitacional de toda una generación.

It's been over a year since Trump's “Liberation Day” when he rolled out his global tariffs, but the Supreme Court struck those down resulting in chaos and confusion about what happens next. Guest Host Catherine Rampell, of The Bulwark and MSNOW, welcomes Scott Lincicome, VP of economics at the Cato Institute, to try to make sense of how the 166 billion dollars in tariffs will be refunded to businesses that were impacted. Catherine and Scott break down the bureaucratic red tape of the refund process, why small businesses are once again getting left behind, and the valid fears of political retaliation that are keeping major corporations silent.And with the U.S. government taking multi-billion-dollar equity stakes in everything from steel mills to quantum computing, we discuss the rise of “state capitalism.” It's not exactly the free market that Republicans have been cheering for generations. Plus, after Trump's landmark trip to China, many Americans are experiencing what Scott calls “China envy.”READ Catherine's writing in The Bulwark: https://substack.com/@catherinerampell/postsREAD Scott's writing: https://www.cato.org/people/scott-lincicome

Despite recent pressure on stocks, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson argues that earnings and AI's impact remain stronger than many investors appreciate.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our bullish mid-year outlook and why stocks have been under pressure more recently. It's Tuesday, May 19th at 1:30 pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Every cycle has a moment when investors become so focused on the last risk that they miss the next opportunity. I think we're in one of those moments right now. The first half of this year has had a familiar feel to it. The market weakened under the surface well before the headlines got loud, investors discovered the new risks after prices had already moved, and sentiment got worse just as the forward setup was getting better. In other words, it's déjà vu all over again – but with some important twists. The biggest twist is where we are in the cycle. Last year, we were still coming out of the tail end of a rolling recession. Today, we're in a rolling recovery and that is still underappreciated. This matters, because it changes how we should interpret the correction earlier this year and a powerful rally. In the first quarter, many investors looked at the S&P 500's less-than-10 percent price decline and concluded the market was complacent. I think that really misses the point. Roughly half of the Russell 3000 saw drawdowns of 20 percent or more, and the S&P 500 forward Price Earnings multiple fell by 18 percent from its peak as forward earnings continued to rise. That is not complacency. That is a market doing what it does best – discounting risk before the narrative catches up. And those risks were not small. We had private credit concerns, and a major debate around AI disruption to labor markets as well as a new war that drove oil prices up by 100 percent. In many of the areas most directly exposed to these risks, the market delivered 40 percent-plus corrections. So the provocative question I would ask now is this: what if the biggest risk from here is not being too bullish, but being too cautious after the market has already done the work? We address these questions in our recently published mid-year outlook. Specifically, we raised our 12 month S&P 500 price target to 8,300 based solely on higher earnings forecasts. In fact, we assume some further valuation compression. We raised our S&P 500 EPS by approximately 5 percent as operating leverage from the rolling recovery, AI adoption, fiscal support and a capex cycle that continues to broaden. That earnings point is critical. In prior cycles when oil shocks ended the business cycle, earnings were already decelerating or contracting outright before the shock hit. Today, the opposite is happening. Earnings are accelerating from already strong levels. First-quarter median S&P 500 earnings surprise was 6 percent, the strongest in four years; and earnings revisions breadth has moved back up to 22 percent from just 5 percent at the start of reporting season. That is a very different backdrop than the traditional late-cycle oil shock playbook. AI is another area where I think the consensus has evolved. The labor market disruption narrative has moved faster than the actual implementation. The enterprise application layer is still early, and for now, AI looks more like a margin tailwind than a labor-market wrecking ball. Companies are running leaner, hiring less, and beginning to quantify real benefits rather than simply firing everyone. While true adoption of this technology is likely to be slower than anticipated, the apprehension to over-hire is real and that is driving higher profitability in an indirect way. Monetary policy and liquidity are still the main risks to this bull market rising unimpeded. With the Fed becoming less dovish and liquidity needs rising, interest rates are on the rise and the equity-rate correlation is negative again. The 4.5 percent level on the 10-year Treasury remains important for valuations. We don't need Fed cuts for the equity market to work. History suggests that when earnings growth is strong and the Fed is on hold, returns can still be very solid. The real risk is liquidity – whether the Fed and Treasury underestimates how much capital the private economy now needs to fund investment and recovery.Ultimately, the Fed and Treasury have tools to address these liquidity needs and they have been using them aggressively this year. However, these provisions can ebb and flow and we are currently in a window where it's going to ebb, leaving stocks vulnerable in the short term. If the correction persists, investors should use that as an opportunity to add exposure to the parts of the market that benefit from a rolling recovery, specifically Industrials, Financials, Consumer Discretionary Goods. The breadth of the earnings and capex cycle remains under-appreciated, not to mention the recovery from the rolling recession that ended with Liberation Day a year ago. The bottom line is simple. The correction earlier this year was more significant than most appreciate in terms of valuation and the earnings story is only getting better. The path won't be smooth, so use any corrections to position for the continued broadening in earnings that we believe will continue.Just remember, by the time the evidence feels obvious, the opportunity is usually gone. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out! And I wish my wife a happy birthday.

Edward Fishman on how to fight an economic war.It has been an extraordinary year in American economic statecraft and economic warfare. When today's guest last appeared on the show, it was April 2025. We spoke just days after Trump's so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs had thrown global markets into chaos. At the time, much of the conversation about economic warfare was speculation about what Trump might do. A year later, we know what Trump's economic warfare looks like in practice—and it's not a pretty picture.This episode features returning guest Edward Fishman. Since his last appearance on the podcast, Eddie has taken up a new position at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he is Senior Fellow and Director of the new Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics. The conversation will unpack Eddie's new Foreign Affairs essay titled “How to Fight an Economic War: A Field Manual for a Ruptured World.”The Sanctions Age is hosted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Josefine Petrick.To receive an email when new episodes are released, access episode transcripts, and read the hosts reflections on each episode, sign-up for the The Sanctions Age newsletter on Substack: https://www.thesanctionsage.com/

In the year since Donald Trump's “liberation day” in April 2024 fewer Americans are now working, and inflation-adjusted hourly earnings are still below where they were in 2021.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/job-market-has-only-gotten-worse-trumps-liberation-day

In the year since Donald Trump's “liberation day” in April 2024 fewer Americans are now working, and inflation-adjusted hourly earnings are still below where they were in 2021.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/job-market-has-only-gotten-worse-trumps-liberation-day

Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic. The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously — meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off — with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this — it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants — reality is much harder to spin. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 00:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier 02:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices 02:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year 03:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden 04:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war 07:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now 07:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s 08:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession 09:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates 10:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s 10:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic 11:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board 11:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections 13:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin 14:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely 14:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading 16:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year 16:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck 17:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession 19:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election 20:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession 22:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus 23:30 The job market is still very weak 24:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that 25:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have 26:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard 27:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations 29:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet 29:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all 30:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea? 31:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores 32:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices 33:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs 33:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day 34:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs? 35:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump 37:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit 39:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west 41:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading 42:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas 43:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be? 45:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem 47:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place 47:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt 48:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us 49:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar 50:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas 52:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soonSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens by previewing Mark Zandi's sobering economic forecast from this episode and arrives at a simple, devastating conclusion: every single policy decision Trump has made has made the economy worse, tax refunds have already been gobbled up by inflation, and the math guarantees voters will feel even worse by the midterms — meaning Republicans on the ballot should be furious with the president, and those in swing districts have no choice but to start distancing themselves from his policies now. But the real heat in this episode comes from his analysis of Trump's trip to Beijing to meet Xi Jinping, which he frames as the diplomatic equivalent of going hat in hand. He argues there's simply no winning a trade war with China, that scrapping the TPP and the JCPOA will go down as two of the most colossal strategic mistakes of the modern era, and that Trump's combined Iran and China policies have somehow managed to strengthen both adversaries simultaneously — to the point that his foreign policy decisions are starting to make him look, in Chuck’s words, like a Manchurian candidate. The world is now beginning to view the United States itself as the global boogeyman, and Trump's presidency is doing damage to America's long-term standing that will take a generation to repair. The brutal irony, he notes, is that Trump now needs more from China than China needs from America: China is the only country with real leverage over Iran, defenders of Taiwanese independence are quietly terrified that Trump could trade them away for an economic off-ramp, and Xi gets to sit across the table from a desperate American president whose negotiating position keeps eroding by the day. Then, Mark Zandi — chief economist at Moody's Analytics and one of the most quoted forecasters in America — joins the Chuck Toddcast to deliver a remarkably sobering verdict on where the economy actually stands: without the $700 billion currently being poured into AI investment, the United States would already be in or close to recession. The latest CPI and PPI reports came back ugly and uglier, oil shocks from the Iran war will keep prices elevated through 2027 even if the war ended tomorrow (Zandi says don't expect $3 gas again until then), real disposable income has been flat or falling for a year, FHA mortgage delinquencies are at their highest level since the Great Recession, and the bottom 40% of earners are living genuinely paycheck to paycheck. Zandi pushes back on lazy comparisons to the 1970s — conditions were objectively worse then, with a self-reinforcing wage-price loop that took a brutal recession to break — but warns that nominating Kevin Warsh as Fed chair specifically to cut rates would risk replaying exactly that movie, and that a policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic. The deeper diagnosis is brutal: employment was growing steadily and inflation was easing until Liberation Day, when both reversed simultaneously — meaning Trump's tariffs are the most obvious thing to cut, and the question of who actually benefits from them gets harder to answer every month. The mass deportation policy is costing the country roughly 0.5-0.7% of GDP growth that normal immigration would have provided, with agriculture, construction, hospitality and services taking direct hits. Zandi sees economic weakness most pronounced in the South and West, healthcare-anchored cities like Philadelphia outperforming Florida and Texas, and a national debt now exceeding GDP that's setting the conditions for a potential bond market sell-off — with global investors already being advised to diversify away from the dollar as America deglobalizes and the world quietly pulls away. His most striking observation: the fixes are all sitting on the shelf. America doesn't need new ideas to solve any of this — it needs the political will to use the ones we already have, and that will probably won't materialize until a genuine crisis forces it. By the midterms, voters will be feeling the worst of it, and while partisan media can try to spin the numbers all it wants — reality is much harder to spin. Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free! Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Mark Zandi paints a sobering picture about state of the economy 02:30 Every Trump policy decision has made has made the economy worse 03:45 Tax refunds have been gobbled up by inflation 04:15 The economy will only feel worse to people by midterm elections 06:30 Republicans on the ballot should be furious with Trump 07:15 Republicans in swing areas have to distance from Trump policies 08:15 Trump in China to meet with Xi Jinping 09:00 There’s no winning a trade war with China 10:30 Getting rid of the TPP & JCPOA were colossal mistakes 11:30 Trump is losing the Iran war and strengthened Iran & China 12:00 Trump’s policies make him look like a Manchurian candidate 12:30 The world is now starting to view the US as the boogeyman 13:15 Trump’s presidency has been terribly damaging long term to the US 14:30 We need more from China than they need from us 15:00 China is the only country that could lean on Iran 15:45 Defenders of Taiwan independence worried Trump could cave 16:45 Trump is desperate for Xi’s help 21:00 Mark Zandi joins the Chuck ToddCast 21:45 CPI inflation and PPI inflation reports came back ugly & uglier 23:00 The through lines are ugly and going to get worse due to oil prices 23:45 Even if the war ended today, higher prices would last all year 24:15 Inflation has been accelerating under Trump, was on track under Biden 25:15 Inflation was worse during Covid combined with start of Ukraine war 28:00 Economy and stagflation were much worse in the 70s than now 28:45 Conditions different from 70s, there was a self-reinforcing loop in 70s 29:30 The only way out of 70s stagflation was a very severe recession 30:15 Kevin Warsh nominated for Fed chair to lower interest rates 31:00 If Warsh cuts interest rates, we risk a repeat of the 70s 31:45 A policy of low rates at any cost would be catastrophic 32:15 Rate cuts won’t happen since they are set by a board 32:45 Economy won’t have time to recover in time for the midterm elections 34:00 Partisan media can try to spin the economy, but reality is hard to spin 35:15 We won’t be back to $3/gallon gas until 2027 most likely 35:45 Last 3 months, the economy got a boost due to tax refunds that are fading 37:00 Real disposable income has fallen or stayed stagnant the past year 37:45 Bottom 40% earners are struggling badly, living paycheck to paycheck 38:45 FHA mortgage delinquency rates are rising, highest since great recession 40:00 Things will feel worse economically by the midterm election 41:30 Without $700B in AI investment, we’d be close to, or in a recession 43:45 Last two jobs reports better than expected, tax cuts acted as stimulus 44:30 The job market is still very weak 45:30 With normal immigration we’d grow GDP by 0.5-0.7%, and lost that 46:30 Data shows immigrants don’t take jobs native born workers have 47:30 Lack of immigrants will hit state & local government budgets hard 48:15 Agriculture, construction, hospitality and services hit hard by deportations 50:00 Air travel hasn’t fallen off due to economic conditions… yet 50:45 High end consumer spending on recreation hasn’t fallen off at all 51:45 Is the proposal to cap credit card interest rate at 10% a good idea? 52:30 Companies won’t offer credit lines to consumers without great credit scores 53:15 Trump cutting the tariffs is the most obvious solution to higher prices 54:00 Employment was increasing regularly until Liberation Day tariffs 54:30 Inflation also took off on Liberation Day 55:15 Who actually benefits from Trump’s tariffs? 56:30 Suspending gas tax would result in .10-.15c lower prices at pump 58:30 Cutting the gas tax likely won’t result in any political benefit 1:00:00 Economic weakness most pronounced in the south & the west 1:02:00 Cities with big healthcare industries having most job growth, Philly leading 1:03:45 Pennsylvania economy rowing faster than Florida or Texas 1:04:15 America’s national debt exceeds GDP, how concerned should we be? 1:06:30 Indicators show we having a massive debt and deficit problem 1:08:00 The conditions for a sell off in the bond market are in place 1:08:30 It’s going to take a crisis to generate political will to act on the debt 1:09:45 America is deglobalizing, and world pulling away from us 1:10:15 Investors being advised to diversify away from the dollar 1:11:30 The fixes to the economy are all sitting on the shelf. Don’t need new ideas 1:13:00 AI job displacement hasn’t hit hard yet, but could be coming soon 1:16:15 Need a stiff drink after the interview with Mark Zandi 1:16:45 Ask Chuck 1:17:00 Alternative idea for formula to expand the house of representatives? 1:21:45 Will there be any impact from Susan Collins disclosing her tremors? 1:25:30 Thanks for interview with lawyers suing big tech, screen time is down 1:26:45 Could you argue that SCOTUS striking down New Deal policy was most impactful? 1:28:45 Is Dems gerrymandering more about deterrence and not pure hypocrisy? 1:33:15 If a justice steps down, who would Trump nominate. What would impacts be? 1:37:45 Thanks for the pod. It’s helped me get through long dialysis sessions 1:39:15 NBA playoffs reactionSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Over a year ago, President Trump started imposing tariffs on China as part of “Liberation Day”. There was a back-and-forth escalation and at one point the tariffs on China peaked at 145%. A truce was eventually declared and the temperature on the tariff war cooled, but there were lasting effects for manufacturers in both countries. Trump is in China this week and trade is on the agenda. We look at the long-term impact of the tariff war on a factory in the U.S. and one in China.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Good afternoon, I'm _____ with today's episode of EZ News. Tai-Ex opening The Tai-Ex opened down 48-points this morning from yesterday's close, at 41,886 on turnover of $11-billion N-T. The market continued to rally on Thursday - with the main board briefly surpassing the 42,000-point mark for the first time to hit yet another new intraday high, as investors were buoyed by hopes the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen to shipping. Government seeking separate, tougher penalties for drug driving Transport Minister Chen Shih-kai says the government is considering treating drug-impaired driving as a distinct offense separate from drunk driving - potentially leading to harsher penalties. According to Chen, officials from the transport and interior ministries are scheduled to meet next Monday to discuss possible amendments to current laws, including tougher penalties and joint liability provisions for drug-impaired driving. Chen says while drug use itself is already a criminal offense, driving a vehicle under the influence of narcotics - especially when it results in injury or death - should carry tougher penalties than drunk driving. The statements come amid growing concern over a recent spate of (一連串) serious traffic accidents involving drivers under the influence of narcotics. Those incidents include a drug-driving crash on May 4 that resulted in the deaths two people. Several lawmakers have voiced their support for criminal liability for drug driving to be made different from that for drunk driving. Iran Creates Gov Agency to Control Tax Vessels in Strait Iran has created a government agency to control and tax vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That's according to the shipping data company Lloyd's List Intelligence, which reported the move Thursday. The Iranian effort to formalize control over the channel raised new concerns about international shipping as hundreds of commercial ships remained bottled up (圍困，困住) in the Persian Gulf, unable to reach the open sea. A spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry said officials in Tehran are still reviewing messages from Pakistan, which is mediating peace proposals between the Islamic Republic with the U.S. Court strikes down Trump 10% global tariffs A US federal trade court has struck down President Donald Trump's global 10% tariff, declaring it illegal. The White House imposed (強制實行,) the rate in February after the Supreme Court ruled against the administration's Liberation Day tariffs. Nick Harper reports from Washington. El Salvador News Outlet Assets Froze Salvadoran investigative news outlet El Faro has announced that its members' assets have been frozen. The outlet on Thursday accused the government of President Nayib Bukele of escalating political persecution. El Faro has clashed (不相容，相牴觸) with Bukele over its investigations into corruption, including alleged negotiations with gangs. Bukele, who came to power in 2019 on an anti-corruption platform, has faced criticism for cracking down on dissent. The outlet learned of the asset freeze through a bank and property registry. El Faro has been audited (查賬目) since 2020 over alleged tax evasion, which it denies. Many of its members now live in exile. That was the I.C.R.T. EZ News, I'm _____. －－－－以下為 SoundOn 動態廣告－－－－ 單身租屋族有機會免繳稅？ 幼兒、長照扣除額有感大升級 《十樂不設

The market keeps bouncing back from everything. COVID. 9% inflation. Silicon Valley Bank. Liberation Day. And every time, investors learned the same lesson: it always works itself out. But what if this time it doesn't? Jim Bianco, President and CEO of Bianco Research  joins Jim Iuorio and Bob Iaccino to break down the one macro risk nobody is pricing in right now. And why if it stays unresolved longer than expected, stocks could draw down 15 to 20%. What you'll take away: - The #1 macro risk the stock market is completely ignoring - Why tech keeps hitting all-time highs despite uncertainty - Semis vs. software: how AI is splitting the market in two - What agentic AI really means for jobs and your portfolio - Gold vs. Bitcoin: which wins the dollar debasement trade - Which AI tool to pay for: Claude, ChatGPT, Grok or Perplexity - Why private credit could become the next big problem 

A quick update from Katy about crowds in Italy. You may have seen huge crowds at popular tourist destinations like Rome, Florence and Cinque Terre last weekend. We have thought on this.Summary: Last week was a long weekend for May Day in Europe plus in Italy the week coincided with Liberation Day making it a super long weekend so crowds were predictable. Katy shares how to plan around these key moments each year and if you can't avoid them what to do.PS - The Untold Italy app premium version is on sale until May 8 

Text of the episode: https://tinyurl.com/WSSI2TXT Matteo brings us another wonderful report from Italy and the Mediterranean region on the days leading up to May Day, as well as what happened on the day itself. He tells the story of Liberation Day, the defense of the flotilla to Palestine, and May Day and the inspirational actions of workers fighting against imperialism, genocide, and for a better world. We also learn about what a CSA (Centro Sociale Autogestito) is in Italy and its importance to the workers' struggle. Join the discord: discord.gg/tDvmNzX Follow the pod at instagram.com/workstoppage, @WorkStoppagePod on Twitter,  John @facebookvillain, and Lina @solidaritybee

The dollar erased every war gain, oil's back above $102, yields are at 4.5%, and mining stocks just gave you the buying opportunity of the year. Gold settled the week at $4,612 with silver at $75.33, both drifting lower as investor attention shifted to record-high stock indexes. Mining stocks took the hardest hit with GDX down 6.25% — a buying opportunity Peter Schiff says is being created by the same complacency that preceded every major gold breakout. The dollar index fell to 97.7, erasing every penny gained since the Iran war began — a historically weak bounce for a supposed safe haven currency. Oil climbed back above $102 while 30-year Treasury yields touched 4.5%, recreating the exact conditions that forced Trump to reverse Liberation Day tariffs. Schiff revisits Powell's claim of 40 years of controlled inflation, breaking it down decade by decade to show average CPI of 5.5% in the '80s, 3% in the '90s, and 2.6% in the 2000s — with only the post-crisis 2010s near the 2% target. He also highlights the Bitcoin conference where last year's darling Nakamoto is down 99% between conferences, while this year's pitch of "digital credit" is even worse than subprime.

Fluent Fiction - Danish: Discovering Hidden Secrets in Tivoli on Denmark's Liberation Day Find the full episode transcript, vocabulary words, and more:fluentfiction.com/da/episode/2026-05-06-07-38-19-da Story Transcript:Da: Freja elskede Tivoli Gardens.En: Freja loved Tivoli Gardens.Da: Det var forår, og alting blomstrede.En: It was spring, and everything was in bloom.Da: Farverige blomster og lys pyntede den gamle forlystelsespark.En: Colorful flowers and lights decorated the old amusement park.Da: Det var den 5. maj, Danmarks Befrielsesdag.En: It was the 5th of May, Denmark's Liberation Day.Da: Folk gik glade omkring, børn legede, og musikken spillede.En: People walked around happily, children played, and music played.Da: Freja gik langsomt gennem parken.En: Freja walked slowly through the park.Da: Hendes øjne skannede hvert hjørne for noget usædvanligt.En: Her eyes scanned every corner for something unusual.Da: Hun ønskede spænding.En: She craved excitement.Da: Hun ønskede at finde noget de andre ikke kunne se.En: She wished to find something others couldn't see.Da: Pludselig fik noget hendes opmærksomhed.En: Suddenly, something caught her attention.Da: Ved en gammel karnevalsbod, der så ud til at være glemt i tidens løb, glimtede noget.En: By an old carnival booth, which seemed to have been forgotten over time, something glimmered.Da: Det var et gammelt brev.En: It was an old letter.Da: Hun samlede det forsigtigt op.En: She picked it up carefully.Da: Papiret var skrøbeligt og falmede.En: The paper was fragile and faded.Da: Mikkel og Astrid, Frejas gode venner, kom hen til hende.En: Mikkel and Astrid, Freja's good friends, came over to her.Da: "Hvad har du fundet?"En: "What have you found?"Da: spurgte Mikkel nysgerrigt.En: asked Mikkel curiously.Da: Freja holdt brevet op.En: Freja held up the letter.Da: "Jeg tror, det er noget vigtigt," sagde hun.En: "I think it's something important," she said.Da: De åbnede brevet.En: They opened the letter.Da: Bogstaverne var gamle og svære at læse.En: The letters were old and difficult to read.Da: Men der var noget kryptisk i beskeden.En: But there was something cryptic in the message.Da: "Vi må finde ud af, hvad dette betyder," sagde Astrid.En: "We must find out what this means," said Astrid.Da: Tiden var knap, for dagen var fuld af begivenheder og folkemængder.En: Time was scarce, for the day was full of events and crowds.Da: Men Freja besluttede sig.En: But Freja made up her mind.Da: De tre venner begyndte at følge sporene i brevet, skønt det ikke var nemt.En: The three friends began to follow the clues in the letter, even though it wasn't easy.Da: De gik fra sted til sted i Tivoli, ledte og løste små gåder.En: They went from place to place in Tivoli, searching and solving small puzzles.Da: Mikkel holdt styr på tiden, mens Astrid indtastede sporene på sin telefon.En: Mikkel kept track of time, while Astrid typed the clues into her phone.Da: Endelig afslørede den sidste ledetråd et sted bag en skjult hæk.En: Finally, the last clue revealed a place behind a hidden hedge.Da: Der ventede en gammel del af haven.En: There waited an old part of the garden.Da: Den var forladt og stille.En: It was abandoned and quiet.Da: Her lå en lille tidskapsel begravet.En: Here, a small time capsule lay buried.Da: Freja bøjede sig og tog den op.En: Freja bent down and picked it up.Da: Hun åbnede den forsigtigt.En: She opened it carefully.Da: Indeni var breve fra fortiden, fra folk der havde set mørke tider, men som havde håbet og drømt om frihed.En: Inside were letters from the past, from people who had seen dark times but who had hoped and dreamed of freedom.Da: "Jeg kan ikke tro det," sagde Freja stille.En: "I can't believe it," said Freja quietly.Da: "Dette er fra Anden Verdenskrig."En: "This is from World War II."Da: De læste sammen, forsigtigt, og mærkede historiens vægt.En: They read together, carefully, and felt the weight of history.Da: Freja følte sig forbundet til fortiden.En: Freja felt connected to the past.Da: Hun indså, hvor langt deres land var kommet.En: She realized how far their country had come.Da: En dyb følelse af taknemmelighed bredte sig i hende.En: A deep feeling of gratitude spread within her.Da: De ord, hun læste, gav hende styrke og forståelse for dem, der havde kæmpet før hende.En: The words she read gave her strength and understanding for those who had fought before her.Da: Da solen gik ned, og himlen blev mørk, lyste Tivoli op i al sin pragt.En: As the sun set, and the sky turned dark, Tivoli lit up in all its glory.Da: Deres hjerter var fyldt med varme og nostalgi.En: Their hearts were filled with warmth and nostalgia.Da: Freja vidste nu, at nogle hemmeligheder ventede på at blive opdaget af dem, der søger.En: Freja now knew that some secrets waited to be discovered by those who seek them.Da: Og mens festlighederne fortsatte omkring dem, delte Mikkel, Astrid og Freja et stille øjeblik, med et nyt bånd til det sted og den tid, de var en del af.En: And while the festivities continued around them, Mikkel, Astrid, and Freja shared a quiet moment, with a new bond to the place and the time they were part of. Vocabulary Words:bloom: blomstredecraved: ønskedeexcitement: spændingglimmered: glimtedecuriously: nysgerrigtletter: brevfragile: skrøbeligtfaded: falmedecryptic: kryptiskscarce: knapclues: sporenepuzzles: gåderabandoned: forladthedge: hækburied: begravetcapsule: tidskapselfought: kæmpetgratitude: taknemmelighedweight: vægtfreedom: frihednostalgia: nostalgifestivities: festlighedernedecorated: pyntedeunusual: usædvanligtforgotten: glemtcarefully: forsigtigtrevealed: afsløredepast: fortidenconnected: forbundetglory: pragt

The news cycle will not save you. This month, Dr. David J. Johns breaks down the stories that slid quietly past the headlines while our communities' futures were being decided. We open with a win—the Global Black Economic Forum sued the state of Texas for stripping HUB certifications from 15,000 minority- and women-owned businesses, and on April 13th, a Travis County judge said: not so fast. Then we get to work: voting rights under coordinated assault, the weaponization of an 1866 civil rights law against Black scholarship programs, the true cost of Liberation Day's tariffs on working families, a 100% pharmaceutical tariff arriving September 29th, and the faith-rooted organizing happening right now across 10 cities that nobody's covering. Class is in session. Pull up.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/teach-the-babies-w-dr-david-j-johns--6173854/support.

Fluent Fiction - Dutch: Bloom and Beyond: A Friendship's Liberation Day Journey Find the full episode transcript, vocabulary words, and more:fluentfiction.com/nl/episode/2026-05-05-07-38-19-nl Story Transcript:Nl: De zon straalde helder in de lentehemel boven de Keukenhof tuinen.En: The sun shone brightly in the spring sky above the Keukenhof gardens.Nl: Het was Bevrijdingsdag, en overal om hen heen waren mensen gekomen om te genieten van de bloemen en de festiviteiten.En: It was Liberation Day, and everywhere around them, people had come to enjoy the flowers and the festivities.Nl: Marlies, Jeroen en Sofie wandelden door het park, verbaasd over de eindeloze rijen tulpen in allerlei kleuren.En: Marlies, Jeroen, and Sofie strolled through the park, amazed by the endless rows of tulips in all sorts of colors.Nl: Marlies had een sprongetje in haar stap.En: Marlies had a spring in her step.Nl: "Kijk, Jeroen!En: "Look, Jeroen!Nl: Al die kleuren!En: All those colors!Nl: Is het niet prachtig?"En: Isn't it beautiful?"Nl: riep ze terwijl ze enthousiast naar een bed met gele en rode tulpen wees.En: she exclaimed as she enthusiastically pointed to a bed of yellow and red tulips.Nl: Jeroen knikte instemmend.En: Jeroen nodded in agreement.Nl: Hij voelde de inspiratie kriebelen, maar ook de drukte om hen heen maakte hem onrustig.En: He felt inspiration tickling, but the bustle around them also made him restless.Nl: Sofie, altijd de planner, had voor gezorgd dat ze genoeg tijd hadden om het hele park te verkennen en zodoende ook te genieten van de festiviteiten.En: Sofie, always the planner, had ensured they had enough time to explore the whole park and enjoy the festivities.Nl: "Ik hoop echt een rustig plekje te vinden om te tekenen," zei Jeroen.En: "I really hope to find a quiet place to draw," said Jeroen.Nl: Zijn stem ging bijna verloren in het geroezemoes van de menigte.En: His voice was almost lost in the hum of the crowd.Nl: "We kunnen hier geen tijd verspillen," zei Sofie, terwijl ze haar planning nakeek op haar telefoon.En: "We can't waste time here," said Sofie, while checking her schedule on her phone.Nl: "Er is een muziekoptreden om 15:00 uur, en je mag dat niet missen!"En: "There's a music performance at 3:00 PM, and you can't miss that!"Nl: Maar Jeroen voelde de noodzaak om zich even af te zonderen.En: But Jeroen felt the need to seclude himself for a moment.Nl: "Ik denk dat ik een klein stukje ga wandelen," stelde hij voor.En: "I think I'll take a little walk," he suggested.Nl: "Even naar een rustiger plekje.En: "To find a quieter spot.Nl: Zullen we elkaar bij de fontein om 16:00 uur weer ontmoeten?"En: Shall we meet at the fountain at 4:00 PM?"Nl: Marlies knikte begripvol.En: Marlies nodded understandingly.Nl: "Zeker weten, Jeroen.En: "Sure thing, Jeroen.Nl: Ga maar, we vinden elkaar wel weer."En: Go ahead, we'll find each other again."Nl: Jeroen dwaalde af, terwijl hij zigzaggend door de kleurrijke paden liep, steeds verder weg van de drukte.En: Jeroen wandered off, weaving through the colorful paths, moving further away from the crowd.Nl: Uiteindelijk kwam hij bij een verborgen hoekje, een stille plek met een klein bankje omgeven door lila tulpen.En: Eventually, he came upon a hidden corner, a quiet spot with a small bench surrounded by lilac tulips.Nl: Het was precies wat hij zocht.En: It was exactly what he was looking for.Nl: Met zijn schetsboek op schoot begon hij te tekenen.En: With his sketchbook on his lap, he began to draw.Nl: De vormen en kleuren van de tulpen veranderden onder zijn hand in prachtige, levendige lijnen.En: The shapes and colors of the tulips transformed under his hand into stunning, vibrant lines.Nl: Hier kon hij zijn gedachten ordenen en inspiratie vangen in zijn schetsen.En: Here, he could organize his thoughts and capture inspiration in his sketches.Nl: Toch knaagde het schuldgevoel.En: Yet, a sense of guilt gnawed at him.Nl: Had hij zijn vrienden te lang alleen gelaten?En: Had he left his friends alone for too long?Nl: Hij keek naar de tijd en besefte dat het bijna tijd was om terug te keren.En: He checked the time and realized it was almost time to return.Nl: Met een tevreden glimlach en een voldaan gevoel in zijn hart keerde hij terug naar de menigte, zijn schetsboek gevuld met nieuwe ideeën.En: With a satisfied smile and a sense of fulfillment in his heart, he returned to the crowd, his sketchbook filled with new ideas.Nl: Precies op tijd vond hij Marlies en Sofie bij de fontein.En: Right on time, he found Marlies and Sofie by the fountain.Nl: "Daar ben je!"En: "There you are!"Nl: riep Sofie opgelucht.En: Sofie called out with relief.Nl: "We hebben je gemist."En: "We missed you."Nl: Jeroen grijnsde en hield trots zijn schetsboek omhoog.En: Jeroen grinned and proudly held up his sketchbook.Nl: "Het was het waard.En: "It was worth it.Nl: Ik heb zoveel inspiratie opgedaan."En: I gained so much inspiration."Nl: Samen genoten ze van de rest van de middag, dansend en lachend tijdens het muziekoptreden.En: Together, they enjoyed the rest of the afternoon, dancing and laughing during the music performance.Nl: Jeroen realiseerde zich dat het soms belangrijk is om jezelf een moment te gunnen om te doen wat je graag wilt, en dat zijn vrienden dat ook begrepen.En: Jeroen realized that it's sometimes important to give yourself a moment to do what you love, and that his friends understood that too.Nl: Aan het einde van de dag voelde Jeroen zich dankbaar, niet alleen voor de kleurenpracht van de tulpen, maar ook voor de balans tussen vriendschap en persoonlijke expressie die hij had gevonden.En: At the end of the day, Jeroen felt grateful, not just for the colorful splendor of the tulips, but also for the balance between friendship and personal expression he had found.Nl: Het was een Bevrijdingsdag die hij nooit zou vergeten.En: It was a Liberation Day he would never forget. Vocabulary Words:shone: straaldebrightly: helderstrolled: wandeldenamazed: verbaasdrows: rijenbed: bedenthusiastically: enthousiastbustle: drukterestless: onrustigensured: gezorgdexplore: verkennenfestivities: festiviteitenhum: geroezemoesseclude: af te zonderenweaving: zigzaggendwandered: dwaaldehidden: verborgenlap: schootvibrant: levendigegnawed: knaagdefulfillment: voldaangrinned: grijnsdesplendor: kleurenprachtbalance: balansrealized: realiseerdegrateful: dankbaarcaptured: vangenenthusiasm: enthousiasmerelief: opluchtingexpressed: uitdrukking

The dollar erased every war gain, oil's back above $102, yields are at 4.5%, and mining stocks just gave you the buying opportunity of the year.Gold settled the week at $4,612 with silver at $75.33, both drifting lower as investor attention shifted to record-high stock indexes. Mining stocks took the hardest hit with GDX down 6.25% — a buying opportunity Peter Schiff says is being created by the same complacency that preceded every major gold breakout.The dollar index fell to 97.7, erasing every penny gained since the Iran war began — a historically weak bounce for a supposed safe haven currency. Oil climbed back above $102 while 30-year Treasury yields touched 4.5%, recreating the exact conditions that forced Trump to reverse Liberation Day tariffs. Schiff revisits Powell's claim of 40 years of controlled inflation, breaking it down decade by decade to show average CPI of 5.5% in the '80s, 3% in the '90s, and 2.6% in the 2000s — with only the post-crisis 2010s near the 2% target. He also highlights the Bitcoin conference where last year's darling Nakamoto is down 99% between conferences, while this year's pitch of "digital credit" is even worse than subprime.Chapters:00:00 Welcome and Subscribe00:25 Gold Silver Weekly Recap01:08 Mining Stocks and Fund Plug02:00 Why Gold Bullish Now03:14 Stocks High Oil Yields Rising06:27 Fed Presser and Powell Exit10:05 Money Supply Inflation Reality17:32 Debt Deficits and Fed Failure19:54 Tariffs Cars and Stagflation22:48 Bitcoin Strategy Ponzi Talk24:30 Dollar Weak Bonds to Gold27:19 Gold Targets and Crypto Risks29:15 Schiff Gold App Call to Buy30:58 Wrap Up and Where to FollowFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffGet more gold & silver now: https://www.schiffgold.com1-888-GOLD-160 (465-3160)Open a T Gold account: https://www.tgold.comOpen a managed account: https://europac.comListen to The Peter Schiff Show: https://schiffradio.comFollow the main channel: https://youtube.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #GoldInvesting #FridayMarketWrapOur Sponsors:* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Story of the Week (DR):Happy (?) May Day MMMay Day 2026: Top CEO pay increased 20 times faster than workers' pay in 2025Rivian Sold 42,247 Cars And Paid Its CEO [RJ Scaringe] $403 Million, Or 15 Jim FarleysComcast Co-CEO Mike Cavanagh Lands $72 Million Pay Package For 2025Google co-founder [Sergey Brin] rips California billionaire tax: 'I fled socialism'ONE-TIME wealth tax: The proposal would impose a 5% tax on net worth above the $1 billion threshold for people who were California residents as of Jan. 1, 2026, with some assets like real estate and certain retirement accounts excluded~$13B, with certain exclusions this figure could drop to $9B (the approximate value of his real estate empire)This is the equivalent of $2,500 if you earn $50,000Ken Griffin slams Mamdani for singling him out as a 'profound lack of judgment,' ripping socialist bentBill Ackman to New York City Mayor Mamdani: Don't scare away the billionaires CEOs got millions after boards ‘neutralized' the impact of tariffs. Some won't say what it was worthRTX CEO Christopher Calio: $27.7 million in compensation last yearAt its January 2025 board meeting, the compensation committee of RTX pre-authorized the removal of tariff impacts on business metrics related to Calio's pay months before President Trump announced a set of sweeping Liberation Day tariffs on April 2, 2025 that upended global supply chains. The RTX comp committee said that the tariff-cost impact “should be neutralized” for determining annual bonus payouts because the tariffs were “externally imposed, unpredictable and unrelated to operational execution.”Calio's annual bonus hit $5.1 million, an 85% increase over the $2.76 million the company paid him the year beforeHow much of that growth was attributable to the tariff exclusion, RTX did not discloseWe spoke to over 30 CEOs and business leaders. Here's what worries them mostA world of constant shocksSupply chains are under strain and getting costlierInflation is testing the consumerAI is an opportunity, but also a threatCyber and trust are keeping CEOs upEnergy security is back at the centerThe leadership playbook is changingThe 'Dirty Secret' Behind AI Layoffs: Forrester Warns Tech Is Often Non-ExistentForrester finds most firms citing AI for job cuts lack the systems to back it up, deepening mistrust over how and why people are being let goExecutives are increasingly blaming artificial intelligence for sweeping layoffs even when the technology is barely in place, Forrester has warned, with analyst J.P. Gownder saying that in 'nine out of 10' such cases the AI capability behind those cuts simply does not existMeta says it doesn't know its ideal size as it prepares to lay off 10% of its staffBed Bath & Beyond CEO: AI will lead to ‘significant reduction in headcount'Sam Altman says he is 'deeply sorry' for failing to alert police ahead of mass shootingSam Altman Issues Grim ApologySam Altman is “the face of evil” for not reporting school shooter, says lawyerSam Altman apologized to the people of Tumbler Ridge, British Columbia, because OpenAI had flagged and banned the suspect's ChatGPT account but did not alert police before the mass shootingApril 28, 2026: Our commitment to community safety“We assume the best of our users, but when we detect that someone is attempting to use our tools to potentially plan or carry out violence, we take action, including revoking access to OpenAI's services.”“We use automated detection systems to identify potentially concerning activity at scale.”“When an account or conversation is flagged, it is assessed in context by trained personnel. These human reviewers are trained on our policies and protocols, and operate within established privacy and security safeguards”“When conversations indicate an imminent and credible risk of harm to others, we notify law enforcement.”Zero mention of the Tumbler Ridge massacre, the apology, the lawsuits, etc.Elon Musk's trial against Sam Altman to reveal the ongoing power struggle for OpenAIMusk is suing Altman, OpenAI, and Microsoft over the claim that OpenAI abandoned its original nonprofit, “benefit humanity” mission and instead became a profit machine, while OpenAI says Musk is really trying to slow a competitor he helped createThe courtroom tone has been described as unusually messy and theatrical, with the judge reportedly telling both sides to stop acting out on social mediaThe judge told Musk to cool it on the “robot apocalypse” and “Terminator” talk.Musk lawyer says OpenAI 'stole a charity,' as trial against AI firm, Sam Altman beginsWorld's Richest Man, Least Generous? Elon Musk Tops Forbes 'Least Philanthropic' ListForbes' analysis concludes that Elon Musk has given around $500 million 'directly to those in need' — a sum that sounds enormous in isolation yet, by the magazine's maths, represents just 0.06 per cent of his reported wealth. In other words, for every $1,000 attached to his name on paper, roughly 60 cents has so far gone, in clear line of sight, to people or causes that can be classed as receiving direct help.Jerome Powell says he will continue to serve as a Fed governor, calls Trump criticism 'unprecedented'Powell says he's staying on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends, which blocks Trump from simply creating an empty seatPowell says the pressure campaign is unprecedented and threatens the Fed's independence.Bessent Says Powell Staying On Is ‘Violation' of All Fed Norms“It's highly unusual for someone who says he's an institutionalist and cares about norms at the Fed. This is a violation of all Federal Reserve norms.”“I think it is an insult to Kevin Warsh, Miki [Michelle] Bowman and Chris Waller to think that these other Republican nominees do not care about the institution of the Fed and that he alone can maintain the integrity of the Fed.”Trump Takes a ‘Wrecking Ball' to Independent Scientific Advisory BoardThe DEI death blow: “We Could See the Largest Drop in Black Representation Since the End of Reconstruction”Much like dual class shares: The erosion of the Voting Rights Act directly dilutes the collective political power of Black communitiesThomas Dartmouth Rice ("The two most popular characters in the world at the present time are [Queen] Victoria and Jim Crow.") received some formal education in his youth, but ceased in his teenage years when he acquired an apprenticeship with a woodcarver named DodgePentagon inks deals with seven AI companies for classified military workOpenAI, Google, Nvidia and others agreed to ‘any lawful use' of their tech. Anthropic, feuding with Pentagon over potential AI misuse, was not includedGoodliest of the Week (MM/DR):DR: France unveils plan to ditch all fossil fuels by 2050a “first of its kind” plan to phase out coal by 2030, oil by 2045 and gas by 2050 during a global conference aimed at breaking reliance on fossil fuelsMM: War on Social Media: Greece to ban anonymity on social media DRI seriously might move to GreeceMeta's threat to quit New Mexico ‘is showing the world how little it cares about child safety,' AG saysAssholiest of the Week (MM):Disney's spineless chair James Gorman DRABC can beat Trump FCC's license threat if owner Disney is willing to fightThe man who was the savior picking the new CEO, when asked what he thinks of the attack on Kimmel and Disney's ABC (again), said, “It's the job of the CEO with their team to figure out the right answer and they'll be guided by the board”, and then declined to say what advice he or the board would give regarding the “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” show.“We have a terrific new CEO, Josh D'Amaro, he's world class so I'm sure he'll rise to the occasion and do what the right thing is.”Here's a glow up of Gorman choosing the new CEO:James P. Gorman, former head of Morgan Stanley, became Disney's chairman a year ago with succession at the top of his to-do list. The 67-year-old Australia native comes with strong opinions and sterling credentials: He helped stabilize, then revitalize the Wall Street bank during his 14 years in the C-suite, retiring in December 2024 after orchestrating a seamless baton pass.“I don't know that there's anyone who could have navigated these kinds of leadership transitions better than James,” Wharton School Dean Erika H. James said in an interview. “He's not afraid to do the hard things.”James was on the board of Morgan Stanley with GormanSo the board abdicates all responsibility? They bow out? Without Ken Doll Bob Iger around they have no part to play anymore?“Even after paying off the president last year, ABC is once again under attack by this administration,” Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) wrote yesterday. “This should be a lesson to all who capitulate to the president: You cannot buy his favor, you can only rent it.”Even the fucking CATO INSTITUTE weighed in: FCC's Punitive Review of ABC-Disney's Broadcast Licenses Shows Need to Protect Free Expression“Punishing a media organization, no matter what one thinks of their reporting or programming, is an affront to the right of Americans to speak and listen to whatever speech they wish”AI OverloadPopular pasta sauce brand is launching new device to record conversationsPrego owned by Campbells selling a puck that sits on your dinner table, records the conversation, and offers “conversation prompts”When a soup company thinks the answer to AI in soup is a fucking device sitting on your table, listening to you, when we're already surrounded by our tech overlords doing the same thing, we know we've jumped the sharkChip Wilson and the male CEO industrial complexLululemon Founder Takes Aim at New CEO Pick, Escalates Proxy FightChip uses “governance” as his main angle of attack without acknowledging that 50% of the board he hates, including the chair, HE HAND PICKED HIMSELFWall Street sank the shares more than 13% on the announcement of Heidi O'NeillCritiqued her tenure at Nike pushing “direct to consumer” - without acknowledging that Nike is a dual class controlled company with the company founder's nepo baby on the board AND an executive chair (Mark Parker) AND the current CEO (Elliott Hill)Do you think O'Neill made the decision in a vacuum by herself? She's an NEO under not one but THREE leaders - and in 2025 she got a massive stock award (11.4m) to keep her around. She also has a babysitter - she was head of Consumer, Product, & Brand, but there was Craig Williams, Chief Commercial OfficerIs this anything but fucking white dude manbaby sexists anymore?60% female board who just added another woman of color to go above that, +8% gender power gap, 70% female influence - the analytics suggest they are not deferential to the CEO, the only merit director on the board are womenWhile dude analyst Bill Campbell at Paragon Intel said, “she does not look like the obvious architect of the deeper reset this moment demands,” William Blair analyst Sharon Zackfia said, “She brings a significant breadth of knowledge in women's performance apparel and her experience accelerating speed-to-market is particularly welcome at lululemon where lead times have ballooned to about 24 months.”Reading the timeline of interactions, Wilson just sounds like a fucking baby, complaining the board isn't talking to his people enough, they don't respond quickly enough, even as every time he doesn't get his way he publicly says the board sucks but commits to the chair he wants to have “constructive” dialogue. Then the board offers him board seats if he just shuts the fuck up, and he says he won't agree to shut up but they should give him the board seats anyway.Headliniest of the WeekDR: Lululemon's New CEO Is Already in the Hot Seat—and She Hasn't Even StartedMM: 51% of U.S. employees have cried at the office within the last month, according to a new reportWho Won the Week?DR: Only Elon Musk can fire Elon Musk from SpaceX, filing showsMM: Earth - SpaceX ties Musk compensation to Mars colonization goal, which I assume can only mean if Musk himself colonizes Mars he gets paidPredictionsDR: Billionaires start to introduce their own taxes on “normal” people, like: Sidewalk Wear-and-Tear Tax: charged per step, tracked via mandatory Smart Shoes™ and a Public Bench Depreciation Fee: sitting longer than 90 seconds counts as an “asset strain,” tracked via mandatory Smart Boxer Briefs™MM: Because Jamie Dimon says bureaucracy sinks companies and the solution may be getting rid of the ‘jerks' who don't want to solve it, JPMorgan begins firing the 51% of jerks who cried in the office this month.

The earnings story this week reaffirmed a "separation" within the Mag 7, says Phil Rosen. He sees Alphabet (GOOGL) distancing itself from the rest of the megacap tech names, saying "it will win the race to $5T." Phil adds that he is "very bullish" on GOOGL and labels it his pick for the year ahead. On the broader market performance, April's rally was the best single-month finish in 6 years, and Phil likens it to 2025's "V-shaped" recovery post-Liberation Day. Later, Phil describes Apple's (AAPL) AI strategy focusing on its hardware ecosystem. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Trump wants to buy Spirit Airlines at bankruptcy with taxpayer money to "save jobs." That's not capitalism — that's Bernie Sanders with a red tie.- Today's podcasts is sponsored by Pebl. Go to http://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate.- Today's podcast is also sponsored by NetSuite. Download Netsuite's free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://netsuite.com/goldJerome Powell's final press conference as Fed Chair featured a claim that inflation was "under control" for 40 years before the pandemic — a statement Peter Schiff demolishes decade by decade, showing average CPI of 5.5% in the 1980s, 3% in the 1990s, and 2.6% in the 2000s, with only the post-crisis 2010s anywhere near the 2% target.The Fed held rates at 3.5% while oil surged past $108 WTI and $120 Brent, bond yields pushed back toward post-Liberation Day highs with the 30-year hitting 5%, and four FOMC members dissented on the dovish bias. Powell announced he'll stay on the board to protect "Fed independence," but Schiff argues he'll be irrelevant. The episode also covers Trump's plan to buy Spirit Airlines at bankruptcy — proof he doesn't understand capitalism — Michael Saylor's Bitcoin conference keynote pushing Stretch preferred stock as a thinly veiled Ponzi, and explosive IRS FOIA documents proving the agency collaborated with Puerto Rico's SIF to shut down Euro Pacific Bank as a PR stunt, with every email focused on publicity strategy rather than any actual wrongdoing.Chapters:00:00 Cold Open Montage00:58 Fed Holds Rates02:47 Powell Stays On05:07 Fed Independence Debate06:17 Inflation Mandate Critique09:38 Reporters And Data11:04 Decades Of CPI Reality15:01 Ad Break Pebble16:43 Powell On His Record20:04 Inflation Fire Economy Weak21:59 Oil Yields And Markets27:18 Gold Silver And EPAM Pitch29:15 Ad Break NetSuite31:05 Trump Spirit Bailout34:10 Bitcoin Conference Reality Check37:21 Saylor Stretch Digital Credit39:44 Ponzi Claims And Warning42:57 Yield Over Bitcoin43:26 IRS FOIA Fight45:58 Explosive Email Evidence47:02 Debanking Timeline49:55 SIF Findings Breakdown57:42 PR Motive Revealed01:06:47 Press Conference Coordination01:16:43 Why This Matters01:20:08 Puerto Rico Potential01:25:12 Final Call To ActionFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #InflationPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan welcomes Pete Carmasino back to the show. Pete is the chief market strategist at our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. He's also editor of the Chaikin PowerTactics and Chaikin Power Portfolio newsletters.   Pete kicks things off by discussing the current trends he's seeing. He says that you can't focus on just one area because there are many moving parts that shape the market, including other investors. The goal, he states, is to react to the movements, not predict where things are headed. Predictions can be wrong, and folks who don't react wind up missing out on new opportunities. Pete then shares his investing process. He understands that sectors rotate, and when he sees a shift from one sector to another, he follows the signal on where to start moving money. He also looks at fundamentals and technicals to determine whether the stocks he's looking at are good buys at the moment. And he shares his thoughts on the Strait of Hormuz tension and how things might play out. (0:00)   Next, Pete shares his thoughts on the energy crisis. He says the root cause is less of a supply issue and more of a distribution problem. He believes that properly equipping refineries will encourage miners to produce more oil. According to him, if the supply can increase while conflict tensions decrease, we can have an equilibrium where consumers are comfortable with gas prices and miners are content to continue drilling. Then, he talks about the producers that he finds most promising in several different sectors. (17:05)   Finally, Pete explains how his portfolio works. Using a "top-down analysis," he looks at themes throughout the year to find the best names in the strongest market sectors. He then shifts to the market corrections we've seen since the sell-off from last year's "Liberation Day." But he notes that the big names in the Magnificent Seven didn't recover with the rest of the broader market last November. And that implies that the baton could be getting passed from tech to energy. So he adjusted his portfolio to prepare for a sector rotation. He then wraps things up by stressing the importance of handling risk management in your portfolio. (35:48)

Fluent Fiction - Italian: Artistic Freedom: A Defiant Stand Against Compromise Find the full episode transcript, vocabulary words, and more:fluentfiction.com/it/episode/2026-04-28-22-34-02-it Story Transcript:It: Nel cuore della Primavera, la città festeggiava la Giornata della Liberazione.En: In the heart of spring, the city celebrated Liberation Day.It: Il sole splendeva alto, risvegliando il vecchio magazzino abbandonato alla periferia della città.En: The sun shone high, awakening the old abandoned warehouse on the outskirts of the city.It: Un luogo dimenticato da molti, ma non da Giorgio, Martina e Alessio.En: A place forgotten by many, but not by Giorgio, Martina, and Alessio.It: Era il teatro perfetto per un'esposizione d'arte fuori dall'ordinario.En: It was the perfect setting for an extraordinary art exhibition.It: Giorgio, con i capelli spettinati e una mente piena di visioni artistiche, stava in silenzio di fronte a una tela.En: Giorgio, with messy hair and a mind full of artistic visions, stood silently in front of a canvas.It: Attorno a lui, Martina posizionava sculture e quadri, organizzando ogni cosa con cura.En: Around him, Martina arranged sculptures and paintings, organizing everything with care.It: L'atmosfera del magazzino, con le sue alte volte e finestre rotte, creava un ambiente unico.En: The atmosphere of the warehouse, with its high ceilings and broken windows, created a unique environment.It: I fasci di luce che cadevano sul pavimento trasmettevano una sensazione di magia e speranza.En: The beams of light falling on the floor conveyed a sense of magic and hope.It: "Coraggio, Giorgio," disse Martina sorridendo, mentre appoggiava una mano rassicurante sulla sua spalla.En: "Come on, Giorgio," said Martina with a smile, while placing a reassuring hand on his shoulder.It: "Sarà un successo!En: "It will be a success!It: Alessio sarà colpito dalle tue opere."En: Alessio will be impressed by your works."It: Giorgio annuì, ma dentro di sé la paura montava.En: Giorgio nodded, but inside, fear was mounting.It: Dubitava di sé stesso, aveva paura di non essere all'altezza.En: He doubted himself, afraid he wouldn't measure up.It: Alessio, il gallerista noto e sofisticato, era un uomo dalle grandi ambizioni, sempre alla ricerca di nuovi talenti.En: Alessio, the well-known and sophisticated gallery owner, was a man of great ambitions, always in search of new talents.It: Finalmente arrivò Alessio, con un passo deciso e l'aria di chi non aveva tempo da perdere.En: Finally, Alessio arrived, with a determined step and the air of someone who had no time to waste.It: Girava per il magazzino, osservando ogni opera d'arte con sguardo critico.En: He wandered through the warehouse, observing each artwork with a critical eye.It: Giorgio sudava freddo, il cuore che correva veloce.En: Giorgio was cold with sweat, his heart racing.It: Quando Alessio raggiunse Giorgio, sorrise.En: When Alessio reached Giorgio, he smiled.It: "Le tue opere sono interessanti," disse.En: "Your works are interesting," he said.It: "Ho un'offerta per te.En: "I have an offer for you.It: Un posto nella mia galleria, ma voglio che tu dipinga in uno stile diverso."En: A place in my gallery, but I want you to paint in a different style."It: Giorgio esitò.En: Giorgio hesitated.It: Questa era l'occasione che aspettava, ma c'era una condizione.En: This was the opportunity he had been waiting for, but there was a condition.It: Martina, che ascoltava, lo guardò incoraggiandolo con gli occhi.En: Martina, who was listening, looked at him encouragingly with her eyes.It: Finalmente Giorgio rispose: "No, grazie."En: Finally, Giorgio replied: "No, thank you."It: Alessio alzò un sopracciglio, sorpreso.En: Alessio raised an eyebrow, surprised.It: "Sei sicuro?"En: "Are you sure?"It: "Sì," rispose Giorgio con più coraggio di quanto si sentisse.En: "Yes," replied Giorgio with more courage than he felt.It: "Voglio restare fedele a me stesso e alla mia arte."En: "I want to stay true to myself and my art."It: Mentre Alessio se ne andava, Giorgio sentì una nuova forza dentro di sé.En: As Alessio left, Giorgio felt a new strength within himself.It: Forse non aveva ottenuto il contratto, ma aveva conquistato qualcosa di più prezioso: la fiducia in sé stesso.En: Perhaps he hadn't secured the contract, but he had gained something more precious: self-confidence.It: E con Martina al suo fianco, sapeva che, un giorno, il mondo avrebbe riconosciuto il suo talento.En: And with Martina by his side, he knew that one day the world would recognize his talent.It: L'esposizione divenne un successo tra gli amici e la comunità locale, simbolo di libertà artistica e autenticità.En: The exhibition became a success among friends and the local community, a symbol of artistic freedom and authenticity.It: Giorgio aveva finalmente trovato il suo posto, non in una galleria famosa, ma nel cuore della sua comunità e soprattutto, dentro sé stesso.En: Giorgio had finally found his place, not in a famous gallery, but in the heart of his community and above all, within himself. Vocabulary Words:the heart: il cuorethe spring: la primaverato celebrate: festeggiarethe outskirts: la periferiaabandoned: abbandonatoforgotten: dimenticatoextraordinary: fuori dall'ordinariocanvas: la telasculpture: la sculturaatmosphere: l'atmosferabeam: il fasciomagical: magicoreassuring: rassicurantefear: la paurasophisticated: sofisticatoambition: l'ambizionedetermined: decisocritical: criticoto hesitate: esitareopportunity: l'occasionecondition: la condizioneto encourage: incoraggiareeyebrow: il sopracciglioto feel: sentireto gain: conquistareself-confidence: la fiducia in sé stessofreedom: la libertàauthenticity: l'autenticitàto recognize: riconosceretalent: il talento

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On this day, 25 April 1945, some major cities in Italy were liberated from fascism following a working class uprising and general strike in what has since been immortalised as the country's annual Liberation Day. Other towns and cities were liberated before and afterwards. But on April 25, the cities of Milan and Genoa were liberated. Genoa was the only European city where Nazi forces surrendered to resistance partisans. At 7:30 PM, German general Günther Meinhold and communist factory worker Remo Scappini signed the Nazi surrender agreement.The partisan resistance force in Genoa only consisted of around 5000 fighters, compared with over 10,000 Germans, with thousands more outside the city. The partisans controlled all the major roads going in and out of the city, and they were supported by an insurrection in the city. Some German officers resisted the order to surrender, but by 9 AM on April 26, the resistance announced that the insurrection had succeeded and Genoa had been liberated.Learn more about the Italian resistance in our podcast episodes 77-80: https://workingclasshistory.com/podcast/e77-80-italian-resistance/Our work is only possible because of support from you, our listeners on patreon. If you appreciate our work, please join us and access exclusive content and benefits at patreon.com/workingclasshistory.See all of our anniversaries each day, alongside sources and maps on the On This Day section of our Stories app: stories.workingclasshistory.com/date/todayBrowse all Stories by Date here on the Date index: https://stories.workingclasshistory.com/dateCheck out our Map of historical Stories: https://map.workingclasshistory.comCheck out books, posters, clothing and more in our online store, here: https://shop.workingclasshistory.comIf you enjoy this podcast, make sure to check out our flagship longform podcast, Working Class History

Lowe's is launching annual subscription service HomeCare+ to deepen the company's relationship with customers. CEO Marvin Ellison discusses the initiative, the investment he's making in trade skill training, the future of the labor market, and the ideal housing environment for his bottom line. Then, Robert Frank reports on the Iran War's impact on luxury shoppers in the Middle East and, by extension, on luxury conglomerate LVMH. Plus, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby reportedly pitched a merger with American, and CNBC's Steve Liesman reports that the NFIB small business optimism index for March of 2026 fell to its lowest level since the Liberation Day tariffs in April of 2025.    Steve Liesman - 6:46 Marvin Ellison - 16:24 Robert Frank - 33:19   In this episode: Steve Liesman, @steveliesman Robert Frank, @robtfrank Kelly Evans, @KellyCNBC Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

PHONE GUEST - RETURN OF THE MACK - ERNIE “MACK” MAKINSON // Good Samaritan who stopped runaway Seattle bus is now homeless // Mack claims Metro doctored their surveillance footage… Update: They did not. // A GoFundMe for Mack has raised nearly $80k // ‘Liberation Day’ at One Year // Federal Reserve: Without Tariffs, Inflation Would Have Dropped to Pre-Pandemic Levels During 2025 // 28 year old Brit earned $8000/mo by drinking 10 beers a day for 200 days on TikTok 

American forces pulled off a daring rescue of a downed U.S. airman in Iran. The Wall Street Journal’s Shelby Holliday breaks down the chain of events. It’s been a year since President Trump’s “Liberation Day,” when he unveiled his signature global tariffs. Courtenay Brown of Axios explains how the tariffs reshaped the American and global economies. Michigan and UConn face off in tonight’s men's NCAA Tournament final. Eddie Pells of the Associated Press previews the matchup. Plus, Pope Leo delivered his first Easter address, and the Artemis II mission prepares to reach the dark side of the moon. Today’s episode was hosted by Cecilia Lei.

Oil hits $112 as Trump vows to bomb Iran into the Stone Age — and the jobs data everyone's celebrating is hiding a collapsing labor market. • Today's podcasts is sponsored by Pebl. Go to http://hipebl.ai to get a free estimate. • Today's podcast is also sponsored by West Red Lake Gold Mines. Ticker WRLGFPeter Schiff records from the British Virgin Islands, breaking down the latest economic data against the backdrop of the escalating Iran war. The March jobs report showed 178,000 jobs added — well above the 51,000 estimate — but Schiff argues the number is misleading, noting that 43% of new jobs were in healthcare, a sign of a sicker nation rather than a stronger economy. He highlights the weakest wage growth in five years at 3.5% year-over-year and the lowest labor force participation in five years at 61.9%.Oil prices surged to $112 per barrel amid Trump's pledge to "bomb Iran back to the Stone Age" over the next two to three weeks, with the service sector PMI falling into contraction at 49.8. Schiff warns that stagflation is now undeniable and that oil-driven inflation will force massive government spending and money printing, ultimately crushing the dollar and sending gold well above $5,000. He criticizes Trump's economic lies, the Supreme Court's ruling striking down Liberation Day tariffs as unconstitutional, Warren Buffett's Fed praise, and growing redemption freezes across investment funds as signs of a brewing financial crisis.Chapters:00:00 Cold Open and Intro00:54 Vacation Setup and Holiday Markets01:52 March Jobs Report Breakdown06:44 Stagflation Signals in PMI and JOLTS08:53 Oil Spike and Fed Policy Link17:02 Weekly Market Wrap Gold Silver Miners21:33 Trump Speech War Escalation Fears30:18 Aftermath Leaving Strait to Allies32:27 NATO Exit Debate33:39 Dollar Risks and Metals34:11 Springsteen Boycott Rant36:27 Liberation Day Reality Check37:47 Tariffs Ruled Unconstitutional40:52 Funds Freeze Redemptions43:39 Buffett on Inflation Targets47:05 Fed Enabled Covid Policy51:31 Trump Polls and Midterms57:55 Prepare and Buy Gold01:00:30 Podcast Wrap and TravelFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/booksSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/news#PeterSchiffShow #OilPriceSurge #GoldInvestingOur Sponsors:* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out Grammarly: https://grammarly.com* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/GOLD* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

America's tariff regime affected all aspects of life from the global economy to the day-to-day of average business owners. In this special episode, the FT's US Economics Editor Claire Jones explains what changed, and what didn't, because of those tariffs. Mentioned in this podcast:Listen to the rest of our Liberation Day series Listen to Swamp Notes Note: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Henry Larson. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The President fires Attorney General Pam Bondi; a look at who's on the shortlist to replace her. Then, the U.S. attacks Iran's civilian infrastructure while Iran launches a barrage of missile strikes in the region. Plus, Trump imposes new tariffs on the 1 year anniversary of “Liberation Day”. Catherine Rampell hosts as Peter Baker, Charlie Sykes, Joyce Vance, Ivo Daalder, Natasha Sarin, Brendan Greeley, and Jon Meacham join The 11th Hour this Thursday night. To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Happy first tariff-versary? Despite the fact that many of President Trump's “Liberation Day” tariffs were recently struck down, small businesses across the country are still dealing with the aftermath. On today's show, Kimberly talks with two small business owners: Justine Kahn, founder of Botnia Skincare in Sausalito, CA and Will Sissle, owner of Sissle & Daughters Cheesemongers & Grocers in Portland, ME, about how they've navigated a year of tariffs.

A year ago today, the president pulled out a chart in the now paved-over Rose Garden and set the global economy on fire. He announced his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, which changed a bunch of times before being deemed illegal by the Supreme Court earlier this year. And those tariffs were mostly paid by us — consumers and small businesses. Plus, just how worried should we be about jitters in the private credit market?

Happy first tariff-versary? Despite the fact that many of President Trump's “Liberation Day” tariffs were recently struck down, small businesses across the country are still dealing with the aftermath. On today's show, Kimberly talks with two small business owners: Justine Kahn, founder of Botnia Skincare in Sausalito, CA and Will Sissle, owner of Sissle & Daughters Cheesemongers & Grocers in Portland, ME, about how they've navigated a year of tariffs.

In part two of Red Eye Radio with Gary McNamara and Eric Harley, the Supreme Court discusses birthright citizenship / The original intent of the 14th amendment / GOP leaders Thune and Johnson boost two-track approach to funding DHS / Trump's "Liberation Day" was one year ago today. For more talk on the issues that matter to you, listen on radio stations across America Monday-Friday 12am-5am CT (1am-6am ET and 10pm-3am PT), download the RED EYE RADIO SHOW app, asking your smart speaker, or listening at RedEyeRadioShow.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A year ago today, the president pulled out a chart in the now paved-over Rose Garden and set the global economy on fire. He announced his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, which changed a bunch of times before being deemed illegal by the Supreme Court earlier this year. And those tariffs were mostly paid by us — consumers and small businesses. Plus, just how worried should we be about jitters in the private credit market?

Live April 2, 2026 | Yaron Brook ShowTrump Speech; War; Muslim Brother; Liberation Day; Bondi; Fishback; Replicability | Yaron Brook Show#IranDeal #RussiaUkraine #EnergyCrisis #Israel #Geopolitics #Trump #NuclearEnergy #OilMarkets #WarUpdate #MiddleEastConflict #USPolitics #IsraelIran #EUcrisis #FreeSpeech #Capitalism #Objectivism The Yaron Brook Show is Sponsored by[The Ayn Rand Institute](https://www.aynrand.org/starthere)[Energy Talking Points, featuring AlexAI, by Alex Epstein](https://alexepstein.substack.com/)[Express VPN](https://www.expressvpn.com/yaron)[Hendershott Wealth Management](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4lfC...) &(https://hendershottwealth.com/ybs/)[Michael Williams & The Defenders of Capitalism Project](https://www.DefendersOfCapitalism.com)[Support the Show]( / yaronbrookshow )[Sponsor the Show](askyaron@yaronbrookshow.com/)[One-time donation](https://bit.ly/2RZOyJJ)Join the [Yaron Brook Show YouTube channel]( / @yaronbrook )Like what you hear? Like, share, and subscribe to stay updated on new videos and help promote the [Yaron Brook Show](https://bit.ly/3ztPxTx)Continue the discussion by following Yaron on [Twitter](https://bit.ly/3iMGl6z) and [Facebook](https://bit.ly/3vvWDDC )Want to learn more about Ayn Rand and Objectivism? Visit the [Ayn Rand Institute](https://bit.ly/35qoEC3)Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/yaron-brook-show--3276901/support.Yaron is the executive chairman of the Ayn Rand Institute and a world class speaker. He is the coauthor of the national best-seller Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government, Equal is Unfair: America's Misguided Fight Against Income Inequality and In Pursuit of Wealth: The Moral Case for Finance. He speaks around the world on a variety of topics including the morality of capitalism, Ayn Rand and her philosophy, finance and economics, and the value of inequality.

Thursday marks one year since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on basically all imported goods — how time flies! The name of the game was uncertainty: U.S. small businesses pivoted from growth plans to stay-afloat plans, consumers grew gloomy but kept spending, and the U.S. manufacturing sector shed jobs. All while the rest of the world sorta shrugged and moved on. In this episode, we reflect on the year of the tariff.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Thursday marks one year since President Trump announced sweeping tariffs on basically all imported goods — how time flies! The name of the game was uncertainty: U.S. small businesses pivoted from growth plans to stay-afloat plans, consumers grew gloomy but kept spending, and the U.S. manufacturing sector shed jobs. All while the rest of the world sorta shrugged and moved on. In this episode, we reflect on the year of the tariff.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Global Head of Private Credit & Equity David Miller discuss the recent pressure on the private credit market, potential risks and opportunities that remain in that space.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. David Miller: And I'm David Miller, Global Head of Private Credit and Equity within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Vishy Tirupattur: Today – the evolving risks and opportunities in private credit. It's Tuesday, March 31st at 10 am In New York. Until recently, private credit was among the fast-growing parts of the financial system. In just over a decade, it went from a niche strategy to a market that's well worth over a trillion dollars. After years of outsized inflows and unusually smooth return, private credit is now in focus, and investors are asking tough questions about liquidity, transparency, and valuation. David, you manage private credit and equity portfolios within Morgan Stanley Investment Management. Do you think the industry is facing its first real stress test? And how do you think the industry is faring? David Miller: So, I think private credit has been tested before, you could go back to the GFC. And I know that was a long time ago and the industry was quite a bit smaller. But you could certainly look to the pandemic and the rate shocks of [20]22 - [20]23 as a stress test. And I think private credit performed, you know, quite well through that, despite the initial volatility. We saw some of that recently last year with Liberation Day; and the current environment from a fundamental perspective doesn't feel as bad as those times, and the industry does not feel under that stress. I think the current situation is more of a test of the non-traded BDC structure where roughly 20 percent of direct lending assets sit. And the liquidity provisions in those vehicles are designed to provide some liquidity, but not total liquidity. And so, while I think the vehicles are working as intended, obviously there's been a lot of noise. Vishy Tirupattur: So, I totally agree with you, David. The liquidity provisions that are in these structures are there for a reason; are designed to be that. It's part of the feature and not a bug, precisely to prevent a fire sale of assets. And that really would hurt the overall system. So, we think that there's a greater understanding of this is very much required. David Miller: I think that's right. The limitations on liquidity are there so that the vehicles can operate properly over the long run. When you have illiquid assets, you maintain some liquidity. But clearly those protections are in place so that the vehicle continue to run in ordinary fashion. I think there is a bit of a disconnect, you know, in the media between the sentiment and the fundamentals that are underlying private credit. And yeah, there are concerns about software, and macro, and unseen future risks. But right now, private credit portfolios are performing pretty well. And actually, if you look at 2025 versus [20]24, the metrics were actually improving… Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. I mean, we look at across various metrics, you know, in leverage and coverage metrics, we see overall trends are actually improving. Software [is] very much in focus. Fitch reported, yesterday that, uh, in the last, uh, you know, year to date there have been no software defaults. Another point I would make is there are about 5 percent defaults in – generally speaking – in the private credit space. And the default rates within the software sector is a little bit less than half of that. So, that's an important distinction to make. David Miller: Yeah, I think software is a very interesting and long topic. But generally, our view is: we think that AI is going to be a net tailwind overall for software over time. You know, even factoring in some of the erosion to the SaaS business models, I think well positioned incumbents will get their share of the upside. And so there will be some losers. We think that'll be pretty narrow. But overall, we feel very good about our software book. We've been looking at AI risk for at least three years, when we made loans. And we think that a lot of the embedded enterprise software platforms are going to be net beneficiaries of AI. Vishy Tirupattur: I have slightly different take on the software exposure and all the discussion points on this. The way I think about it is the market assumption is that AI disruption is necessarily going to disrupt all of software companies. And that disruption is imminent. I would push back on both of those points. You know, you could easily imagine that AI will lead to some disruption at some point in the future. But a necessary thing for that to happen is a significant amount of CapEx related to infrastructure to enable AI from innovation to adoption that needs to take place. That will take some time. So, this potential disruption is not imminent. It's potentially coming in the future. But all in, disruption is also not going to be negative. You know, we will have some companies whose business models, who don't have the moats and may not be able to benefit. But on the other hand, as you point out, there will be a number of business models which will actually flourish because of AI adoption and see their margins expand. So, I think I would push back on this notion that's prevalent in the media narrative here. That all AI disruption is imminent and it is all bad. David Miller: I think that's a very good point, and we do believe that there will be dispersion and outcome in private credit portfolios because of some of those facts. And it's really important for managers to have deep experience, not just in software, but any industries that they participate in. And really do very strong credit selection. Vishy Tirupattur: So, another thing that's happening in the private credit space is really the advent of the retail investor into the private credit. What do you think the advent of retail investors had done to the portfolio selection, portfolio construction and credit selection in your portfolios? David Miller: So, for us, we haven't changed our portfolio construction or credit selection process for retail portfolios. They're virtually the same as our institutional portfolios. And that's, you know, based on a lot of diversification, limiting borrower concentration, avoiding cyclicals, et cetera. The one difference that's important for our non-traded BDC is we do have about 10 percent of the portfolio in broadly syndicated loans, to add a little bit more liquidity to the portfolio. But otherwise, they're pretty much the same. I think the biggest impact that we've witnessed over the past few years, where there's been a large inflow of retail capital, has been to push spreads tighter. And weaken some of the terms than they would've otherwise been. There was a lot of capital that needed to be deployed quickly, so we saw that and we're quite cautious. You're seeing that trend reverse now as flows have moderated, and we expect that those trends will result in better pricing and better terms going forward. So, Vishy, how are you thinking about risk in the system now? Are you seeing signs of systemic risk? Or is the pressure more isolated? Vishy Tirupattur: I think the pressure is really more isolated, more focused on the software sector. As we just discussed, it will take time to figure out the winners and losers coming out of this. But that process is really; we think will result in some pickup in default rates. But we think it'll be very concentrated within the software sector. So, when I look back at the systemic risks, the echoes of the financial crisis of 2008 come back, you know. We both have gone through that in different roles, you know. I used to be tall and good looking is before the financial crisis. So, the scars of financial crisis are clearly on upon me now. But I compare these two time periods – and I say in any metric, the risks in the system today are nowhere comparable to the kind of systemic risk that existed back then. You look at the risks, the leverage at the company level. You look at the leverage; the vehicles where credit risk is sitting. Look at the risks and the leverage within the banking system. And the links of the non-banks to banks. All of them put together make us think that the systemic risks are very, very contained. And any allusion to that ‘We are back in 2008,' I would very strongly push back against that illusion. So, David, let me ask you one final question here. If we had to highlight one risk or one opportunity in private credit for investors over the next year, what would it be? David Miller: I think the headlines have covered most of the risks, so I'll go with an opportunity. So, we believe spreads on private credit loans have widened quite a bit for direct lending. Both for non-software and software names. So, for investors looking to deploy new capital or investors who are underweight their target allocations, we think it's an interesting time. But we believe there's also a really nice opportunity in opportunistic or hybrid private credit. And that's coming from borrowers who need more flexible solutions, and that can come from M&A activity, non-dilutive growth capital. Or balance sheet rationalizations where one can inject junior capital to good businesses that have over-levered balance sheets. And you can get paid well for the flexibility and the optionality that's providing equity holders. There's been far less capital raised for these types of opportunities over the last few years, and they're pretty favorable dynamics going forward as demand increases. Vishy Tirupattur: That's very insightful. David, thanks for taking the time to talk. David Miller: Great speaking with you, Vishy. Vishy Tirupattur: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.David Miller is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

John Arnold joins Marty to break down why the Fed is fiscally trapped and unable to hike rates despite inflationary pressures from Middle East supply shocks, while Bitcoin achieves unprecedented institutional integration through mortgage markets and Wall Street ETF filings.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Andrew Sheets and Head of U.S. Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss what's driving record debt issuance and growing worries about private credit.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Head of U.S. Credit Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: And today on the program, we're going to talk about two of the biggest questions facing global credit markets. A rush of issuance and questions around private credit.It's Friday, March 27th at 2pm in London.Vishwas, it's great to have you in town, talking over what I think are two of the biggest questions that are hanging over the global credit market. A large wave of issuance and a lot of questions around a segment of that market, often known as private credit.So, let's dig into those in turn. I want to start with issuance. You know, you and your team had a pretty aggressive forecast at the start of the year, for a significant level of supply. How's that going? How is it shaping out? We're now almost through the first quarter…Vishwas Patkar: Yeah. So, we came into the year expecting a record, [$]2.25 trillion of gross issuance in investment grade. That's 25 percent higher than last year. That would mark a record one year number for investment grade. And for the high yield market, we expected about [$]400 billion of issuance; up roughly 30 percent.If I were to mark to market those, the forecast is roughly playing out as expected through mid-March. IG issuance is up about 21 percent. High yield issuance is up about 25 percent. So far at least, it's along the lines of what we'd call for. More importantly though, when I think about the drivers of the issuance, that I think in some ways is a little more validating. Because there were two big components of what was going to drive the issuance.One was AI related issuance from the large hyperscalers, and the second was a decent uptick in M&A. And we've seen both of those. So, year-to-date, we've had north of [$]80 billion of issuance from hyperscalers alone in the dollar market. That's on top of significant non-USD issuance that we've had this year.So, I think this idea of AI CapEx investments and by extension issuance being somewhat agnostic to macro, that seems to be playing out so far.Andrew Sheets: So, let's talk a little bit more about that – because, you know, this is a new development. This kind of is a new regime to have this much supply, sort of, somewhat independent of a very volatile macro backdrop.And you know, maybe if you could talk just a little bit more about what we're learning about the issuers. What do they care about? What is bringing them to market? And then maybe what would cause them to slow down or speed up?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, I think we've learned a couple of things, right? First is – this issuance is being driven by investments that are not opportunistic, right? They are competitive in nature. Clearly there is an arms race to figure out who will win the AI race.I think a second leg of it is the issuance is somewhat spread agnostic. So, you know, in credit we look at this metric called new issue concessions, which is effectively how much is a company paying in terms of excess funding costs relative to their bonds outstanding. And what we've seen with some of the larger deals is that new issue concessions are well above average.And that's pretty important in the grand scheme of things because, you know, we're talking about one sector that is driving AI infrastructure. But when you have issuance that comes in size, and it comes wide to where existing bonds are, we think that has knock-on effects repricing other companies that are downstream of those names.Andrew Sheets: So, we have a market for issuing corporate debt that's pretty wide open. You know, as you mentioned, very high levels of issuance and supply going through, despite what would've been a lot of concerns. And one of those concerns is the conflict in Iran.But another concern that's been cropping up is a concern around this market often known as private credit where you've seen a lot of focus, a lot of headlines, volatility in some of the managers of private credit. But also, I think this is an area where less is known. And where there's still a lot of confusion about what it is and how it's performing.So, for the second set of questions, Vishwas, maybe we could just start with, you know, when you think about private credit, what is it to you? And how do you break up the market?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so I think at a very high level, you can think about private credit as capital that is provided by non-bank lenders. And in some ways – that is not broadly syndicated. So it's different from investment grade bonds or high yield bonds or leverage loans in that respect. You know, the second factor I laid out.You know, private credit overarchingly is a big umbrella term. It includes direct lending to businesses. It includes infrastructure finance, project finance, the private placement market, asset-based finance. So, there are a lot of subcomponents.Now, you know, to your point where the market's a little worried and there is growing anxiety is around the direct lending portion of private credit. That segment of the market has grown substantially over the last decade. It was about [$]500 billion or so 10 years ago. It's about [$]1.3 trillion right now.Andrew Sheets: And this is lending directly to companies?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah. This is lending directly to companies. Leverage typically tends to be higher than what you see in the public market. So, one of the challenges around navigating the risks are, you know, when you get a bunch of negative headlines that isn't necessarily the readily available information to either disprove or validate it.So, I think that's some of the anxiety, which is building among the investor base. Our view is, you know, these risks are significant and investors should be cognizant of what's happening.Andrew Sheets: So maybe just to take a step back a little bit there. Why have investors been more worried about the private credit space?Have we seen particular events? Or is it more, kind of, other factors that you think have driven this increased focus?Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, I think it's been a rolling set of factors. This year the whole story has really been about software and concerns about AI disruption. But before I get into that, I think it was a process that really began, I would say, second half of last year.So, private credit really had its moment in the sun a few years ago where inflows were massive. The public market was choppy while the Fed was hiking rates, and a lot of stressed issuers were choosing to raise capital via direct lenders. And at that time, spreads in the private credit market were also very attractive.What you've seen last year is private credit AUM was effectively flat. The fee income being generated on the loans has come down as the Fed has eased policy and the spread on private credit versus the public market has also narrowed. So, what started off, I think, was more macro. It was driven more by what was happening on the policy front…Andrew Sheets: More yield compression. Less yield for investors, which caused them to be just a little bit less attracted to the space…Vishwas Patkar: Absolutely, yeah. And I think that was largely the driver of, you know, the correction in some of these asset manager stocks to begin with. Then you had some of the headlines around specific single name headlines. Double pledging of collateral, some accounting malpractices, which, you know, I think we can say with the benefit of hindsight, those were idiosyncratic. Those were one offs. But again, you know, doesn't make for a positive headline when you get news flow to that effect.And then this year, as I said, it's really been about concerns around the software sector…Andrew Sheets: Which is a very big part of the private credit market.Vishwas Patkar: It is a very big part of the private credit market. It made up for almost a third of all LBOs that were originated between 2018 through 2022. And in fact, really if you look at 2021, when interest rates were very low, a lot of the outstanding software loans were originated in those really weak vintages.And so, you know, I think AI disruption has maybe been the catalyst to drive some of this price action. But that's on top of software, where a lot of loans were originated with high leverage. But now that, you know, you have a very disruptive force around margins, potentially looming, the concern has now shifted towards what do balance sheets look like. And the software sector is very levered. In the bank loan market, for example, more than 50 percent of software loans outstanding are rated B- or lower.And one extension of that is that, you know, you have a non-trivial amount of debt that is maturing in the next few years. So, through 2028, we see about [$]65 billion of software loans maturing largely in that lower quality cohort.So, you know, even before we get clarity around how AI will diffuse and disrupt or will not disrupt these names, the issue is really refinancing. In this period of uncertainty, will all these software loans over the next 12 to 18 months – will they have the capital to term out their maturities?Andrew Sheets: So, Vishwas, maybe just in closing, as you're going around and talking to credit investors at the moment, what do you think are the two or three biggest, kind of, high level takeaways and views that you're trying to get across?Vishwas Patkar: A few things I would say. So, specifically on private credit, we are saying that, you know, I think we are in for a period where returns might be subpar. It is possible that private credit sees AUM growth that is sluggish, maybe even down year-over-year this year. But we would not conflate that with something that's systemic. And I think it's very important to lay that out. But importantly, some of the linkages to the banking system are through, you know, leverage that is significantly lower in this cycle than what we've seen in the past, say prior to the GFC. So that's one.Second, I continue to think that the aspect of issuance being very high and somewhat agnostic to macro conditions, that's been validated so far. And when I look at what credit markets are priced for, in aggregate, we think valuations are still too tight. And that's not withstanding everything that's going on in the Middle East.You know, we clearly have a commodity price shock to navigate. And that can have a feedback loop via what central banks will do. And the U.S. consumer. But I would say just the convexity of credit is very weak. If, let's say, we get a…Andrew Sheets: Limited upside versus relative to more downside…Vishwas Patkar: Very limited upside. And downside, if we get both a technical and a fundamental – and why it is, is significant.And the third thing I would say is it makes sense to own hedges here. You know, again, hedges can be expensive, can lead to loss of carry. But they can also be a very efficient way to protect yourself. And if you look at this time last year in the lead up to Liberation Day, credit had held up really well for the first, say, five or six weeks of that sell off.But then when it moved, it moved very quickly. And in some ways, you know, if you; if investors were able to protect themselves through that last leg of volatility, that effectively provided a very good entry point to capture the rally that played out thereafter.Andrew Sheets: Vishwas. I think that's a great thing to keep in mind. Thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishwas Patkar: Alright. Thank you for having me, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. 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After a year of build-up, the Supreme Court has ruled on President Trump's signature Liberation Day tariffs, and it's not the result the president wanted. So, what will happen next? John Carney describes how the president still have many options to impose tariffs and pursue his protectionist plan, and explains what will happen with the $300 billion in tariffs that have already been collected. Then, veteran reporter Mark Halperin dissects the political ramifications of the decision, the White House's strategic pivot to domestic issues, and the Administration's difficulty in converting its biggest wins into long-term polling strength. Watch every episode ad-free on members.charliekirk.com! Get new merch at charliekirkstore.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.