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Holiday in North America and Liberia

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Latest podcast episodes about Thanksgiving

You Were Made for This
142: One Gracious Blessing After Another

You Were Made for This

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 26, 2022 10:01


Real joy is seeing Jesus, from the abundance of his grace, release one gracious blessing after another to each of us. We don't work for any of it because it's all grace. Listen in to learn how it can happen to you. Have you ever noticed how God is gracious with you, sometimes in an unexpected way? Today's episode is about a recent blessing I witnessed that I think will encourage you. It's a blessing with several layers to it. So keep listening; you're going to like this one. Computer problems A few months ago I realized I needed to replace my aging laptop computer, not so much because of the age itself, but because of problems with the keyboard. The “a” key was the first to go. I couldn't read it and many times had to press it several times before it would register on the screen. A computer technician recommended replacing the keyboard because he said the other keys will eventually do the same thing. Without boring you with the details, he said I'd be without my laptop for 10 days to 2 weeks to make the repair. I opted instead to replace just the “a” key, and there was no downtime at all. But now the “a” key is doing it again, along with the “e, d, and c” keys which are no longer legible. Plus the cursor seems to have a mind of its own when I'm editing. Rather than paying to repair this older computer, and the downtown that comes with it, it's time to replace it. So I sent a letter to people on the mailing list for our missionary care ministry, Caring for Others. It's the organization that sponsors this podcast. People on the list had donated to our ministry in the past, and I asked them to pray that funding would come in to replace my computer. A blessing from an unlikely source Very generous people believe in what we are doing and the checks started coming in. One in particular stands out that came with a Christmas card at the end of December from a missionary by the name of Ann. Janet and I are always encouraged whenever another missionary supports the work we do out of their limited resources. Listen to what Ann wrote to us: Dear John and Janet, I hope this finds you well! Thank you for your recent letter! I understand needing a new computer. Mine was 10 years old and just replaced it over Thanksgiving break. God blessed with the provision for it! So, I in turn, would like to bless you with a gift towards your replacement. Thank you so much for all you do and may our Lord bless you. Have a blessed Christmas, Ann Her note and sizable check, I might add, humbled me. Her aging computer was older than mine. Yet she wanted to share out her limited missionary resources with us. She truly did bless us. Blessings pointing back to Jesus Her note and check brought me back to what the Apostle John said about Jesus in his gospel, chapter 1, verse 16: “From the abundance of the fullness of his grace, we have received one gracious blessing after another.” So how did Ann bless us? Certainly, on the surface it was her generous check to help pay for a new computer that blessed us. A deeper blessing But I see a deeper blessing in her note to us. Ann had the same need I had, maybe even a greater one, which helped her more easily understand my need. Her need made her more sensitive to mine. It's interesting how that works. She saw how God had blessed her with provisions of a new computer for herself, and that inspired her to be a channel of a gracious blessing to benefit Janet and me. A blessing that comes out of the abundance and fullness of God's grace. One blessing after another. In reading Ann's note, I sense a lot of joy. I can't help but smile thinking about the blessing she's feeling. Not only does God bless her with a new computer for herself, but he also uses her to bless us. It all comes from the abundance of the fullness of his grace. One gracious blessing after another. Like Ann, it's inspiring to be God's agent in blessing others. Where we reflect the character of Jesus in our relationships with people. Where we give people a taste of who Jesus is by simply passing on to others what we have received from him. There's a lot of joy in passing on one blessing after another. I also can't help but think of whoever bought that computer for Ann, whether it was one person, or several people, or a church body. They surely must have experienced joy in being a channel of blessing directed to Ann. The great thing about these blessings from Jesus is that there's nothing we can do to earn them. They only come from the abundance of the fullness of his grace. It's all grace. All the time. So what does all this mean for YOU? I suspect some of you may not be feeling particularly blessed right now. If that's the case, ask God for help. Ask him to remind you of the gracious blessing upon blessing you have already received. Maybe start with the blessing of having woken up this morning. Yeah, that would be a good place to start. And then ask God to take it from there. Ask him to help you make a list. For me, I was looking at my paperwork the other day and it tells me I'm getting old. Yet I have all my original factory-installed parts. The same knees, hips, and heart valves I was born with. They seem to be working fine after all these years. Nothing has been recalled. One gracious blessing after another that I enjoy from the abundance and fullness of the grace of Jesus. I find joy in this. You can too. Just ask for help in finding the joy. He'll show you. Here's the main takeaway I hope you remember from today's episode There is real joy in seeing Jesus release one gracious blessing after another as he loves on us. We don't have to work to receive these blessings because it's all grace. All the time. I'd love to hear any thoughts you have about today's episode. You can put them in the “Leave a Comment” box at the bottom of the show notes. Closing I closing, I hope your thinking was stimulated by today's show, to reflect and be inspired by seeing Jesus at work in your life and in the lives of others. When you do this you will find the joy God intends for you through your relationship with others and God. Because after all, You Were Made for This. Well, that's all for today. I look forward to connecting with you again next week. Goodbye for now. Related episodes you may want to listen to 139: Why Should I Listen to this Podcast? 141: One Simple Way to Brighten Someone's Day Our Sponsor You Were Made for This is sponsored by Caring for Others, a missionary care ministry. We depend upon the generosity of people like you to pay our bills.  If you'd like to support what we do with a secure tax-deductible donation, please click here. Thank you.

Poddin' Next Door
#107 - "Big Ape Energy"

Poddin' Next Door

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2022 91:16


On this episode: The ”Poddin' Next Door" crew opens with the usual banter and slappers for your head tops. Masked Dweebs, June Shiesty, The Dirty South Exhibit, Carhartt Vaxx, Greasy Truck Drivers, KETO Tony, Grocery Store Stories, old head advice, being not smart, and other topics. Listen on most Digital Streaming Platforms. Apple, Amazon, Spotify, Google…… Follow + Subscribe: Instagram - @poddinnextdoor YouTube - Poddin' Next Door

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Cigar Store Idiots Podcast
DON'T TRUST THE MENU- CIGAR STORE IDIOTS PODCAST- EP 151

Cigar Store Idiots Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2022 33:16


Rob and Arlo discuss how a scorned Moroccan woman made a meal fit for a king with her ex-lover as the main ingredient. And we brush over once again why Thanksgiving is the most murderous holiday in the US. People eating people.....Why? Music by Hank Williams --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/rob-west8/support

Tim Conway Jr. on Demand
Hour 2 | Who's Your Daddy? @ConwayShow

Tim Conway Jr. on Demand

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2022 32:55


Tim talks about his dad and going to the racetrack on Thanksgiving - Stefan and Mark talk about their dads // Decline in Omicron in LA County // Tim's wife sent him to ER in Burbank to deliver cookies // Rams limiting ticket sales to people who live in SoCal //Meatloaf died last week / Guess who is singing the National Anthem game

The Spurscast
Spurscast Ep. 645: Spurs Acquire Juan Hernangomez, Trade Bryn Forbes to Denver

The Spurscast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 25, 2022 31:34


In Spurscast episode 645, Spurscast host Paul Garcia and Project Spurs Director of Digital Content Joe Garcia discuss:  The Spurs in the last four games against Cleveland, the Clippers, Phoenix, and Oklahoma City The Spurs trading Bryn Forbes to Denver in a three-way trade that brings Juan Hernangomez to San Antonio The Spurs when their main three of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl are in the same game together The Last Four GamesThe San Antonio Spurs went 2-2 in their last four games with wins by their defense against the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder, and losses to the Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns. The Spurs are now 17-28 through 45 games of the season with the 16th ranked offense and 17th ranked defense. They finally have their full-rotation back after Tre Jones returned from health and safety protocols. Zach Collins is getting closer to his return after participating in a G-League game with the Austin Spurs, and multiple assistant coaches on the team have entered health and safety protocols. The Three-Team TradeWednesday the Spurs traded Bryn Forbes to Denver in a three-team trade that included the Boston Celtics and Nuggets. For taking on Juan Hernangomez's $6.9 million contract, the Spurs received cash considerations and a protected 2028 second-round pick from Denver. In the episode, Hernagomez's deal is examined for this season and his non-guaranteed salary for next season. Plus, there's a conversation about what realistic playing time he'll get and whether he can be moved again before the February 10 trade deadline. The Main Three of Murray, White, and PoeltlThe Spurs are now 13-14 in 27 games when Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, and Jakob Poeltl are in the same game together. Since Thanksgiving, the Spurs are 11-6 when those 3 players are in a game together. The Spurs are 6-8 when Murray and White play in crunch time together, a far better record than their 6-13 overall crunch time record. In the episode projected records are discussed if the Spurs can remain healthy for the rest of the season with the three of them. There was also a recent trade rumor involving the Toronto Raptors having interest in Poeltl. The rumor is discussed in the episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Living Free in Tennessee - Nicole Sauce
Episode 525: How We Address Illness in the Holler

Living Free in Tennessee - Nicole Sauce

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2022 70:22


The thing has landed in the holler. Years ago I did a show on how we handle illness in the Holler when Norovirus swept through my house over Thanksgiving. Today, I will share the updated approach in a post THE THING world. Spring Workshop Tickets are on sale. Get them here. Tales from the Prepper Pantry Ran out of beef The Empty Jar Problem Still have not restocked - not in a hurry Lamb Rib Recipe Operation Independence Tajmaholler Update Main topic of the Show: How We Address Illness in the Holler The Holler Neighbors are what I call an unintentional intentional community. (What that means and a bit about how we came to be). Story of Thanksgiving. Identify that someone is sick Communicate to all Learn about what they have and what care Make a plan to cover chores (Nick Ferguson's dead tree story) Communicate Establish the isolation or quarantine place (bathroom sharing, etc) Communications Jenni's Care Packages Med kit lessons learned: number of thermometers, pain killers, nebulizer Keeping everyone else strong/community/nutrition   What we are doing for the covid outbreak and how the neighbors are doing - a word on media hype. How this is different from other contagious illnesses. Membership Plug MeWe reminder Make it a great week   GUYS! Don't forget about the cookbook, Cook With What You Have by Nicole Sauce and Mama Sauce.  Community Mewe Group: https://mewe.com/join/lftn Telegram Group: https://t.me/LFTNGroup Odysee: https://odysee.com/$/invite/@livingfree:b Advisory Board The Booze Whisperer The Tactical Redneck Chef Brett Samantha the Savings Ninja Resources Membership Sign Up Holler Roast Coffee Harvest Right Affiliate Link

Solo Cleaning School
He Built You a Clock

Solo Cleaning School

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2022 12:02


 I have to come right out in the open and make a confession. I have been chronically late my whole life. I overslept and missed the school bus in middle and high school at least 20 times. I was late to my SAT exam. I was late to many of my college classes. I was late to my job at GE and it got worse the longer I was there. I have been late to cleaning appointments and estimates. I have been late just about every Sunday for church. Why am I always late? It's my mom's fault! You didn't see that one coming from the podcast host! All of the admissions of lateness were the ones in my control. Let's turn the clock back to elementary school. I missed the bus several times because my mom couldn't get out of the house in time as she had to drive me. Not only did I miss the bus, but my mom would follow the bus to the next stop to put me on. That was humiliating to have 15+ gawking kids waving and laughing at me from the back of the bus. My mom was RIGHT behind it! I was late to Kindergarten and this was double lateness. My mom dropped me off at my Aunt Donna's apartment on her way to work. Aunt Donna was supposed to take me to school an hour later. However, Aunt Donna liked to sleep and I got to watch a lot of Sesame Street and Mr. Rogers Neighborhood. That's when I knew I'd be really late to Kindergarten as it was only a half day. Then there were the days that I got to watch the Price is Right while Aunt Donna slept. Those were the days that we'd pull into school and my friends were being dismissed. I have no idea how I passed Kindergarten! I was late to every Thanksgiving, Christmas, and other family get together with my mom's side. We'd typically show up 2-3 hours late. It got to the point that my grandfather (mom's dad) would tell his daughter (my mom) that the gathering was 2 hours earlier to get her there on time. He affectionately called this "Lynn Time" (my mom's first name). We'd still be an hour late. I was early once. The story is told that my mom gave birth to me in the hallway while my dad was getting his hospital gown on. As you can see, I have a long and rich track record of being late. I adopted this from my mom. I was joking that it's my mom's fault. At any point in my life I could have taken full responsibility and made the decision to be on time. The truth bears out. Being on time has not been a priority to me. My wife is the complete opposite. She hates being late and my history frustrates her, especially with church and family events. That all changed on November 22, 2020. My other grandfather (dad's dad), Ken Carfagno Sr passed away. He was my Pop-Pop. I've told this story many times on this podcast and honestly it's helped me tremendously with the grieving process. For the remainder of this podcast, my goal is to speak to the chronically late and see if I can't wake you up.Read the rest of this article at the Smart Cleaning School website

The New Flesh Horror Movies Horror Movie Podcast
The 6th Not-Quite-Annual New Flesh Turkey Slaughter

The New Flesh Horror Movies Horror Movie Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 24, 2022 84:31


It's Thanksgiving in January! After taking a year off for no good reason, the New Flesh Turkey Slaughter is back! These are the horror films of 2021 that The New Flesh boys were excited for, but ultimately did not live up to our expecations. And this year a Turkey gets paronded!

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News
EP285 - 2021 Full Year and Holiday Data Deep Dive

The Jason & Scot Show - E-Commerce And Retail News

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2022 60:46


EP285 - 22021 Full Year and Holiday Data Deep Dive The US Dept of Commerce December Advanced Retail Sales Data is out, which gives us a full look at 2021 and the 2021 holiday season. So Episode 285 is a data deepdive into 2021. If you want to follow along, we've made a deck with all the data available at https://retailgeek.com/2021-commerce-recap Data Sources US Retail & E-Com Sales Data: US Dept of Commerce E-Commerce Estimates: eMarketer Retail Foot Traffic Data: Placer.ai Web Traffic Data: Similar Web Holiday Estimates: Adobe, Salesforce, Mastercard Episode 285 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Thursday Jan 20th, 2022. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Transcript Jason: [0:23] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 285 being recorded on Thursday January 20th 2022 that's a heck of a lot of 2012's. I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your Cohoes Sky Wingo. Scot: [0:41] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason Scott chaussures Jason is kind of a shame we neither of us were able to make it in our F but, one of the things I don't miss is every year that I've gone to in our f for the last three times I've went I've had trouble getting there or been stuck there so I think then our F should use this opportunity to move that show out of January and maybe look at something like March or something if they're going to be in New York. Jason: [1:09] Or to the like Bahamas or something. Scot: [1:12] Yeah even better yeah let's make it a destination of it. Jason: [1:17] You know you have my vote I'm not sure you have a majority of votes see you if you have mine that would be awesome. Scot: [1:24] Yeah just watching and it seemed like some folks went and then they had a lot of cancellations so seemed like it was in kind of one of those weird. Hybrid states were if you went and then, person you are going to go see present canceled you sat there in a room with people watching a zoom so that's number Super satisfying but I do think it seemed like some folks you and I know got together and had some dinners and had fund so hopefully that was that was good for everyone. Jason: [1:50] Yeah I had a little bit of foam oh I think you know some people I would have liked to see you know I saw you know social media of them getting together and whatnot and. It's just super bad luck I have a feeling if this show was a month later it would be a lot less controversial that traveled to. Scot: [2:09] Yeah and what did you want to talk about this week. Jason: [2:14] Well you know if we had gone to NRF one of the things that I always like to do it in our f is kind of check in with a lot of our co-workers in the industry and kind of you know get a consensus, about how the year ended up for everyone and what they thought the big issues were going to be for 20 21. So since we didn't get to do that at shop at NRF I thought maybe we could do it on this podcast for our listeners. Scot: [2:42] Yeah that sounds good and then I know you always put together a little for your clients kind of the summary deck and I know that's hard for our podcast listeners so do you have a way to solve that. Jason: [2:55] Yeah so what I thought I would do I put together like a 36 slide deck completely full of numbers and what I thought I would do is describe all of the graphs on the podcast. Scot: [3:09] Sounds good that sounds good and it's going to be a we'll go through it and intricate detail data point by day. Jason: [3:14] Yeah because the one complaint I get about the show is that it's not hard enough to listen to. Scot: [3:18] That's that's from your mom. Jason: [3:22] So that probably isn't going to work but here so here's what I did think I do like instead of, just charging the fortune that we charge clients to go through this presentation I thought I would make a version of the whole deck available to all our listeners so in the event you do want to follow along with the visuals and see the actual data, we will put a link in the show notes you can hit pause for a second, you can open up the deck and I will tell you what slides were talking about in case you want to follow along but but Scott keep me honest here we'll try to make sure we're talking about in a way that you can kind of just, just listen along on the podcast and then look at the deck later if that's the way you prefer to do it. Scot: [4:03] Yeah this is a good time if you like receiving awesome decks for your subscription here which is essentially free this is a good time to hit the five star review we always appreciate that and yeah because we because this is a audio medium we are going to paint pictures with our words and you will see the slides form before your very eyes almost like augmented virtual reality we're going to take you to the metaverse on this thing. Jason: [4:31] Exactly it's a meta verse deep dive into a retail in 2021 and let's jump right into it so. [4:42] Super quick recap last week the US Department of Commerce publishes published their December Advanced Data so that gives us the last month of data we need to see the whole year so it's super exciting for all of us get data Geeks because we now have a complete set of data the one thing to remember is. It's an advanced look and so it doesn't have the granularity of categories that we would like and one of the categories it doesn't have is e-commerce which is highly unfortunate so, the the Deep dive for the whole year with e-commerce broken out will actually be available in mid-February and that's also when they published their quarterly. They're q4u Commerce data which is a separate report so so we have most of the interesting facts there maybe a couple things that filter in last, next month but the top line if we add up all retail sales for 2021 we sold just over six point six trillion dollars of stuff last year which is eighteen percent growth over 20. [5:53] And it's 22 percent growth over 2019 and so, if you do have the deck and you were looking at slide for I show you the last 30 years of growth and the thing that will stand out at you is that this year's growth. Is is almost double the average growth we've had in any of the last 30 years so unprecedentedly good year. Scot: [6:20] This is all retail or not talking e-commerce has. Jason: [6:22] Yeah this is this is pure retail will we will double click into e-commerce a little bit later and you know reminder there's a lot of controversy about what the definition of retail is and so you'll see millions of different numbers out there and it's because. 11 data set has automobiles in it and one has doesn't one has gas in it and one doesn't you know they're all these different things I'm using. The unadulterated numbers from the US Department of Commerce so it does include automobiles it does include gas it does not include restaurants it's what we call, in a ICS code 44,000. Scot: [7:03] Cool good old code it 44,000. Jason: [7:07] If anyone wants to catch me offline and ask for like a different spin I'm happy to talk about how the numbers change when you change your definition but I think that's too complicated for for the podcast but so before I go any further. Like is that does that surprise you at all it has is that has that been your perception that these are Monster year that 2020 and 2021 more Monster years for retail because I feel like that's not necessarily the narrative we've been getting in some of the Commerce media. Scot: [7:37] Yeah no it feels that is a surprise it makes sense and I'm looking at the slide but it makes sense that we were effectively spring-loaded right because you had the shutdown people really, you know couldn't or didn't buy things from March 20 through and so there's put up demand but what's interesting is you really don't see, unlike the Great Recession about it no nine you don't see a retraction before this the splurge and this is way way bigger than that period of time so it is it is surprising. Jason: [8:08] Yeah so so, in aggregate retail did awesome and then on slide 5 I give you this fun way of looking at the data that you and I helped help kind of evolved together but the idea is that we give you a separate line chart for 2019 2020 and 2021 and so you can kind of see. You know how the year stack up against each other and you know. [8:35] 20:19 was the unaffected by the pandemic than 20/20 happen and of course there was this huge dip in April when the pandemic first got real for everyone because the NBA cancelled games and it recovered super quick and then you know the rest of 20/20 was actually above 2019 so retail grew. From 2019 and 2020 even though we were like right in the thick of the pandemic and then in 2021 retail really shot up and the. The hypothesis here is there are two things that really caused this number one there was a bunch of. Economic stimulus that was poured into the economy right like there's a lot of extra money available and consumers were in, like generally really good Financial shape so there was a lot of potential to spend and then a lot of the things that might have gotten some of that money experiences like travel in restaurants and vacations, we're not available in the most consumers so instead of paying money for a gym you bought a Peloton instead of going to a restaurant you bought groceries and instead of going on vacation you you got new patio furniture right and so you know the combination of, more money and less things to spend and on ended up being super favorable to retail overall. Scot: [9:59] Yeah that makes it so that it's really a factor of the stimulus is what you're saying. Jason: [10:06] Yeah and we'll talk about the downside of that if they end of this podcast but so that's the industry average and I would remind everyone to be cautious. In thinking about averages because, very few retailers experience the average right like in general there were big winners and losers based on categories and I'm for the purposes of the podcast we're not going to talk about category growth or foot traffic. From 2022 2021 because 2020 was such a weird year because of the pandemic I actually am going to jump ahead in the deck to slide 9 which is where we start talking about, comparing. Last year to 2019 so like what the cumulative changes were over the from before the pandemic to you know at the end of the second year of the pandemic so. Over that two-year growth we grew 22% as I mentioned earlier and so I actually. [11:09] Put together look at what the average to your growth was every year for the last 30 years and in general the average two-year growth is around 10 to 12 percent so 22% is, unprecedentedly High. Two year growth and remember like you know there was in 2008 there was this recession and there was negative growth so you'd think the the year-over-year from that recession would be super high but but this. 2020 and 2021 year is basically the the best years of retail in our lifetime. And so then I go to slide 10 where I show you how fast each category grew and remember if the industry grew 22%. You really want to be growing faster than that 22% so the categories that one the grew faster than 22% we're your new favorite category automobiles. So they grew at 24 percent which was mildly surprising to me because you, you know early on you would assume Car Sales slowed down significantly and then of course there have been all these chip shortages that's made it slightly hard to buy cars, and yet cars were still one of the bright spots does that surprise you at all or were you totally dialed into that. Scot: [12:30] Yeah the counter is the used markets on fire and they're marking the cars up so there's kind of like an inflation of car prices in there that I think. One of the reasons so if there is a car dealers are taking these pretty exorbitant markups on those, which is kind of short-sighted but that's what they're doing and yeah so so it doesn't surprise me too much when you know what surprises me is where did it all go so we had this like tsunami you know anything about retail it's you know it hasn't been over. You know like what, 10% for a long time and then you've got in the two year ago comparison you get up to maybe like 15% so it's like a surge year where did it show up like I can't think. You know amongst the public companies the Walmarts the targets and that kind of stuff I don't really see it I don't see them just like, blowing up expectations and saying oh my God so much money flooded into our coffers. I kind of wonder where it went or maybe it's going to show up and you know in when you when you chart it out it looks like a lot of it came at the end of 21 so maybe we haven't seen it come out and the public markets but it's going to be you know I kind of wonder where it went. Jason: [13:42] Yeah so I would argue that we are seeing it like in the big companies in the Amazon Walmart Target Kroger and certainly Home Depot and dicks we are seeing it. And so I think the car one is a harder one to see because the car you know the actual car dealers are so fragmented because they're all franchisees. Scot: [14:05] Carvanha has seen it carvanha. Jason: [14:06] The Used Car Guys for sure saw it so let's come back to that in one second let's talk about the other two categories that were above the industry average building materials and garden supplies right so that's Home Depot and Lowe's and you know they're there to your growth Stacks were like significantly up from previous years and again. Part of the reason they would be up as people spend a lot more money on their homes when they were traveling last and then and so that category group thirty percent over two years and then Sporting Goods grew 38 percent over two years so that's you know dicks and sporting goods and and those folks and they were seeing like like I want to say the two year growth stack on dicks would be is like 94% or something so. Scot: [14:56] Yeah. Jason: [14:59] So and then the categories that still like had, by historic standards great growth but did not grow as fast as the industry average grocery stores so only grew 16 percent I have to say that surprised me a little bit because I would have. Expected you know with the hit that restaurants took that the grocery would have outperformed the industry average but you know it doesn't seem like it. It did and then, furnishings and furniture and Home Furnishings grew at 21 percent so about the industry average and again because of all the money people spend on their homes I kind of would have expected that to be higher so those two things. Surprise me a little bit. And then the the categories that were you know more significantly hurt by the pandemic like gas and clothing, you know clothing was still up 13% gas was up 15%. And that's what hurt looks like right like so you know up 13 percent against the industry average of 22 percent like that's. You know kind of the the low end and you know I think if you talk to apparel people during the pandemic they would have said like oh we're you know we're experiencing Armageddon if you compare this 13% growth too you know any of the last five or six years for apparel this would have been a great year. [16:23] And then the most inexplicable to me of all and I think it just has to do with the mix in this category is Electronics and appliances are only up 6%. And I I'm totally open if you have a hypothesis cop but like I think everybody bought a lot of extra Home Tech. So especially the beginning of the pandemic everyone's buying extra computers for their kids for homeschooling and everybody's updating their work from home stuff, and you know over the two-year course of the pandemic you know everybody remodeled their kitchen about new appliances so I'm a little befuddled. Why that you know that category is literally the bottom of the Barrel in this the US Department of Commerce data and it's only six percent of growth. Scot: [17:13] Yeah let me look at the year. Jason: [17:18] I have a so while you're looking I'll just I'll tell you I my. My unfortunate hypothesis so there's an enormous flaw in the US Department of Commerce data and that flaw is that they call e-commerce or non stores. A category. So you're either a Peril sale if you sell the clothes through a store or your Anon store sale if you sell the clothes online, and so if you sell a TV out of Best Buy you're in electronic sale but if you sell the TV online for curbside pickup. You're a. Non-store sale and so I didn't mention this earlier but the category that actually grew the most by far during the pandemic is non store sales which are 38% and we, have any good way to know how that breaks down by category so my hypothesis is the electronics category actually probably did better but the it over index to sales going online and therefore it gets office gated in this US Department of Commerce data. Scot: [18:32] Yeah and then accentuating this is the supply chain problems hashtag Supply pain where you know a lot of that stuff you would go into the store for especially big appliances where you kind of want to see it and touch it and feel it before you order it, I know on the order of 10 people that cannot get washers and dryers. So you know that that was all like this big appliances are in and they've been waiting since you know, Q3 last year to get these things it's insane so that could have you know so you have this kind of double edged double whammy of a lot of stuff moving online or non-store from the store in the store or struggling because they can't get inventory for the shelves and you know every electronics item has a chip. Jason: [19:20] Yeah so I do like that I will say it from the data it looks like more of the group The Slowdown was in, 20/20 than 2021 which like kind of argues it like. Scot: [19:35] Yeah attribution. Jason: [19:37] Yeah so but I don't I don't know and so then so that so far everything we've talked about is US Department of Commerce data so I'm also super interested in how many people walked into a store so I asked our friends at Placer AI which is a, a company that has access to a huge panel of consumers that have software on their phones and it tracks where they go anonymously and they use that data to forecast. Retail foot traffic across the country and so I put together a data set so on Slide. [20:21] 11 of the deck you can see how the 20 21 foot traffic every month compared to 2019 and so for the first half of 2021, um foot traffic in retail was still down between 10% and 0%, versus 2019 so fewer people are going to stores in 2021 then we're going to stores before the pandemic. And then by July we had our first kind of Positive Growth since the pandemic so July and August we're kind of up for and six percent over 20 19 respectively, then we had another slight dip in September and then we had a pretty prominent dip in December of 2021 which was probably the Omicron variant kicking in. [21:12] But so in aggregate. There are still fewer people walking in a brick-and-mortar stores in the United States of America in 2021 than walked in a brick-and-mortar stores in 2019. Scot: [21:24] There are some it almost like it seems to be correlated an inverse correlation with case count right so in the summer cases were kind of low everything was feeling pretty good and then we had kind of the surge the Omicron surged kind of come back and here at the very tail end of 21 we saw a really plummet. Jason: [21:42] Yeah no for sure and there are lots of people that I have been correlating these statistics to case counts or hospitalizations or. Or mortality or any of those things in there are strong correlations so you're certainly right. [21:56] Um so then I I said all right well let's double-click on some of the categories that might be interesting and one category that I mainly double clicked on for you was Automotive so for folks that don't know Automotive is the biggest. Category of retail spending and which kind of makes sense because it's the. The highest ticket item so 1.5 trillion dollars in in car sales in 2021 which is 23 percent of all retail spending so we said 6.6%. Six point six trillion in retail 1.5 trillion of it was cars and that's up as we said earlier 24% from 2019 and then I give you kind of the, the shape of that Demand right and and you know so again, the best month in the history of car sales was April of 2021 and then it's been, tapering off a little bit since then but still up significantly from 2020 and 2021 is up nominally from from 2019 so a very vibrant year even though per your point you know it's actually hard to get vehicles right so a lot of this this. Increase in sales is an increase in price points and inflation versus unit sold but I think it is a little bit of both. Scot: [23:20] Yeah the other changes there's a pull forward because what dealers have started doing is pre sailing Vehicles so it's almost like an auction where they'll say Jason I know you want this IMA Mustang and we got three coming in and August but if you want one of those I'm going to need you to, pay me to there now I don't know how that correlates to these numbers but we're seeing this big pull forward of the consumer dollars into the auto category because of this pre-sale thing where, historically it was you would go test-drive negotiate and then buy the car and it was sitting on the lot the inventory model is kind of flipped right now which is interesting. Jason: [23:59] Yeah yeah and I know not not related to sales velocity necessarily but another interesting thing is. The amount of test drives per sale is way down like it used to be like three test drives per sale and now it might be less than one test drive per sale. Scot: [24:17] Yeah it's kind of it's fun being in the auto category because some in some ways I feel like I've seen the movie before right so for example remember when Zappos came out and they disrupted the shoe category by saying free 365 returns, well then everyone would just buy would say well sometimes I'm an 11 sometimes in 11 half and 10 half I'll just order all three in return to. So then everyone had to adapt that new model because consumers flocked to it and the car industry carvanha has had a seven day return for a vehicle and that's how they got around the test drive and everyone laughed at him and was like why would you do that that's ridiculous and then the pandemic it and everyone had to kind of adopt that model so that's that's gotten rid of the test drive most dealers now have had to adapt to that that more customer friendly model and effectively have like a seven day return window. Jason: [25:06] Yeah and you know you've heard me say this before but I've been following the ottoman of category relatively closely and the grocery category for two big reasons they're they're the two biggest pieces of consumer spending but also before the Pandemic those were the two categories that were released digitally disrupted like a small percentage of cars were sold online a small percentage of groceries sold online and so those two categories were the most disrupted by digital they they got the most digital fastest as a result of the pandemic so I've been super interesting because per your point a lot of the learnings that we've had over the last 20 years in the apparel industry in the consumer electronics Industry and the home industry like are now you know playing out in an accelerated basis in the automobile industry and in the grocery industry. Scot: [25:57] Yeah 11 cool example and I know you know these guys so yeah I tell folks a lot about how Walmart budget and it was kind of like this this analog kind of old-school company building bringing deep digital DNA and we would see a lot of that not emotive category and sure enough Discount Tire which is a brick-and-mortar tire shop family-owned what are they like 100 years old or something like that and they just bought Tire Rec which is kind of the you know the online incumbent and they're merging those two companies together so it's funny because everyone thinks I'm kind of a Nostradamus of this stuff because but it's really just, the exact same thing we saw happen in e-commerce with other categories as happening in the automotive category. Jason: [26:42] Groundhog Day yeah sometimes when I'm impatient I really have to avoid telling clients so I know you need to figure this out for yourself but I know how it is. Scot: [26:52] Yeah. Jason: [26:54] But so I mentioned the grocery category that's the next category that I want to talk about briefly so now we're on slide 14 of the deck, and groceries the second biggest category of consumer spending it's fourteen percent of all retail spending so it's, 901 billion dollars in 2021 and and I mentioned grocery was up pretty significantly up 16 percent but but that you know that is a little less than the industry average and I give folks that that same kind of three-year year-over-year graph if they want to see it but then a bonus data breakdown I always like to do for the grocery industry is on slide 16 and this is a, a line graph with two data points grocery store sales and restaurant sales, and what's interesting about that is for like a pretty significant period of time about a 10-year period. Sales were split almost 50/50 between restaurants and grocery stores so all the the American calories were kind of divided 50/50 between McDonald's on Applebee's and Walmart and Kroger and in the pandemic exactly what you would expect to happen grocery sales shot up and restaurant sales you know took a nosedive. [28:13] Over the course of the pandemic they've moved back closer and kind of come summer of 2021 they actually came back to where they used to be so they were kind of level again and we were like I wonder if that, if if that Gap is over but then Omicron appears to have open that Gap backup so at the moment there is still about a ten billion dollar a month discrepancy between spending on on groceries and spending on restaurant so potentially bad news for the restaurants. Scot: [28:48] Yeah well you wouldn't know it at my restaurants or so they're they're they're super busy. Jason: [28:53] Nice. Scot: [28:55] Could be you know we you know it's interesting traveling around the country a little bit now it's like living in 50 different. Countries the way they're covid policies are so you go to you go to Florida and Texas and everything's just open and normal and then you go to the north east or the west coast and things are very much shut down, and here in our kind of a kind of in the middle but we're still struggling our restaurants part of it could be that they're just closing all the time so we have several restaurants that just can't keep their doors open due to this kind of constant struggle between in team members employees and supply chain so you'll you'll go and they'll have to close early because they didn't have anyone to work that shift and then you'll go and they'll be like we're out of you know it'll be a salad place in they'll be out of lettuce you're like yeah guess may not have needed open but they'll be in there with nothing to do so so it's really. The economy is having a really hard time it's really kind of sputtering right now across those things which which could fall into restaurants and bars you know this, looking into this year into 22. There's a lot of grocery stores are have bare shelves and I don't I was going to actually because you're the grocery guy I don't know what's broken in the supply chain there because obviously we don't rely on China for you know, a lot of that stuff so it's not the that specific thing but that seems to have really become discombobulated as well. Jason: [30:21] Yeah so yeah for sure there it turns out like there is for a, a fair segment of the grocery products there is an international component right like so there are weird ingredients that we do depend a lot on on Imports for right so you know even if the Mondelez cookies are made in the US the sugar for the Mondelez cookies is not and so it it is possible for the shipping to to have an impact on Oreo availability it just it tends to be delayed because it's it's more the ingredient than the finished goods that that is getting in. Scot: [31:01] Catching you know maybe the package. Jason: [31:03] The cpg guys even more so right so a lot of the chemicals that get used in cpg products and a lot of the the, the packaging like blue ink for a while was one of the the the constraining factors and so you know, Brands did have a hard decision to make do we like change the color of our packaging so we keep stay on the shelf or do we you know try to stay true to our brand and wait for morning. Which are not decisions you imagine ever have having to make. Um and then you know grocery is have its groceries a very fragile ecosystem margins are really thin and so. More so than other categories of retail the wage inflation has a Major Impact in it it actually. There's a low-wage workers all the way along that supply chain and so you know a big thing that takes out. Domestic food is you know there's a round of covid at the meat processing plant. And that that can you know be a big Regional hit I walked into a breakfast place last weekend and they were out of eggs, and I'm like wait a minute I haven't heard about an egg shortage or like are we having an egg shortage and the guys I know are our manager just screwed up the hole. [32:27] Yeah but I was I was with you I guess yeah what it's questionable why you open if you're a breakfast, restaurant and you don't have any eggs or you should at least put a vegan sign up or something I don't know. So I always like to talk about a parallel because for a long time apparel is like one of the crown jewels of the retail category and people are super excited about that and you know there was an ERA when those were the best jobs so up, Peril is much more it's about five percent of retail sales it was 303 billion despite the fact that we all have been living in sweatpants for the last two years apparel sales were still up 13%, that definitely was a mostly due to a 2022 2021 recovery 2020 was a really bad year for apparel and it started to come back so apparel is one of the few categories on Slide, 18 where I give you the three-year graph of the the category it's one of the few categories where the 2020 sales were consistently below the 2019 sales and then 2021 they, they came back up to the top and you know one interesting fact about a parallel that I give you a data breakdown on 19 is. [33:41] Apparel has just been getting cheaper over time that in the 1990s apparel was seven percent of retail spending and now it's about four and a half percent of retail spending and that's a largely because good clothes are just less expensive and and you know the same closet that an American would have had in 1990 Hassel asks in 2022 and so if you're growing in the apparel industry you're you're growing in a shrinking Market which is you know always a challenge to do. Scot: [34:15] The entire Farm it's kind of shocking to see April 2020 you know touching effectively zero sales and monthly apparel that's crazy that I feel for those guys that must have been a scary. Jason: [34:28] For most of these graphs I change edit the scale to make the graph as high resolution as possible so the bottom of the graph isn't zero but in a Peril it absolutely is. Scot: [34:38] Yeah might as well be easier yeah. Jason: [34:40] Um and so, so that's enough of the categories I know a lot of listeners on our show were particularly interested in e-commerce I wanted to talk about e-commerce for a minute I mentioned the official. Breakdown of e-commerce you know we won't get for December until the middle of February we do get a, a kind of proxy for e-commerce which is called non store sales it is a it is a bigger bucket and it has more other stuff in it than just e-commerce but if I look at, the 11 months of internet data and then the the one month of non store sales data. It's pretty clear that we're going to come in around a trillion dollars in e-commerce sales so if the official numbers work out the way I think this will be the first year the e-commerce in the u.s. is over a trillion dollars. Um that would represent 16 percent of retail sales so 16 doesn't sound like a huge number, but again it just depends on what your denominator is that 16 percent is you know overall of retail which includes, cars which are getting more digital but still aren't very digital it includes gas which is you know only digital in a couple neighborhoods in San Francisco, um and so I you know you start pulling out some of those traditionally non-digital categories and you know. [36:02] That one trillion dollars represents about you know between 20 and 25% of all the categories that that you know people are willing to buy online and so it's become a very meaningful mix and obviously. It was the fastest growing because of the pandemic but inside 21 I show you the the. The three-year breakdown and the thing that's unique about e-commerce versus some of these other categories. [36:32] E-commerce head its monster growth in 2020. So the two-year growth numbers are still amazing but the one year growth numbers from 2021 to 2020 are not so great because we're comping against. [36:46] A monster year and it's been interesting because like Shopify stock is down because their comps aren't very good right but really there you know. They're comping against these monster numbers. You know lots of retailers are calling me right now and they're in a panic because they're not they didn't hit their goals and their their you know numbers are wrong and I'm like. I mean they're you know their numbers are soft and I'm like well but let's look at what really happened like you had unprecedented growth over the last two years and you're you know you potentially are. Thinking about it in the right way so on slide 22 I give you my, entire story of the world going digital in one slide and it's a little hard, hard to follow but basically what I show you is I show you the brick-and-mortar sales every year or every quarter and then on top of that I show you the e-commerce sales so you can see the e-commerce growing you can see kind of, as a portion of retail what it is and then I show you the rate of growth for for retail and e-commerce and until the pandemic we had a pretty consistent story, e-commerce was growing at like between 15 and 20% a year and brick-and-mortar was growing at three to four percent a year and that was pretty reliable, so then the pandemic happens and brick-and-mortar shrinks for a quarter and e-commerce explodes by you know over 40%. [38:10] And since that time they've been coming back and so for the first time in my life time in Q2 of 2021. Brick-and-mortar actually grew faster than e-commerce for the first time ever. Largely because of the you know they're comping against these these you know huge huge March of 2020 and you know I will see you when the data comes out next month but I have a feeling we're regressing pretty quickly now back to the kind of the the pre-pandemic rates of growth like we absorbed all this big e-commerce growth for two years and I can you know I kind of think we're gonna see e-commerce level back down at that 10 to 15 percent growth every quarter and and Retail drop back down to the 45 percent growth of quarter. Scot: [39:06] Well I think it's you know I think the silver lining for me is and I'm the e-commerce guy here is we had the Surge and then we actually did kind of even better than the surgeon you know you could have painted a story that said this will kind of flip – for your to as it kind of the subsides and then then we get back to normal so so the rising tide kind of stuck and created a new high and then we have continued to grow from there how does I know this this agitates you which is why I bring it up but you know this does not support you know that Theory out there that we pulled forward like five years of e-commerce. Jason: [39:43] Yeah no we we didn't and most of the evidence now is that. We're we're not even way ahead of where we would have been that like like we we got the sales early but that. The future growth is. Slightly slower as a result so that like five or 10 years from now you know will see this this blip on the graph but we'll kind of you know end up at the same same place we would have end up without the the pandemic is most people's projections that's less to true in some of these, digitally immature categories like grocery or automobiles where we really did probably pull in you know kind of accelerate two to three years into the future. And so I did on slide 23 I give you the our estimates of the 2021 e-commerce sales for a bunch of retailers because I'm often surprised people. Don't necessarily have. [40:52] The the best perception about how the relative size of all these retailers so these estimates come from emarketer there there gmv us estimate for Amazon is on the high side of all the estimates I. I look at but they have 20 21 gmv for Amazon and about three hundred seventy six billion. Walmart's the second largest e-commerce site by a lot at 60 billion so quite a bit smarter than Amazon. Until recently eBay would have been the second biggest site and Walmart's approaching twice as big as eBay now so they have shot past eBay. To get to 60 billion eBay's at 38 billion apple is at 37 billion and then like people people forget how big a player apple is alone I saw a funny stat that like. If the air buds alone the air pods alone were a company like it would be the 10th largest company. Scot: [41:50] Yeah that's crazy. Jason: [41:52] And so then you get like a Home Depot is almost 20 billion targets 8 almost 19 billion Best Buys on you know over 16 billion, Costco who's the bane of my existence Costco like pays the least attention to digital they you know always talk about how unimportant digital is and how they don't like it, and I tell everyone what a horrible mistake that is and then Costco continues to Excel and despite not trying they sell 14 billion dollars a year on line. [42:24] So then you can see the rest of the the top 15 on that slide on slide 23 if you're interested but it's interesting to understand the. The relative size of some of these companies. And so then you know one of the things that people always ask about is what did holiday look like particularly so the next section of this deck is, a double click on on holiday 2021 and so. I'm defining holiday as November and December sales that somewhat controversial because there's a lot of different ways to think about it. If we just look at November and December sales this holiday period was the the largest retail holiday ever. And it drew about 16.1%, which is vastly faster growth than any other holiday like the next biggest holiday was 10% so so kind of the same story for the whole year we get in Holiday it was a monster holiday, um You know again that depends a little bit on how you Define retail in RF likes to pull gas out of their number so they're there they would say holiday was 14 percent growth which is still. A monster number. So then I went back to our friends and place Rai and said hey what is foot traffic look like every week of holiday. [43:49] And that to me was kind of interesting so. You know December foot traffic was down overall I'll remind you because of Omicron but if we kind of look at the the weekly data for Holiday foot traffic was actually up versus 2019. Leading into the Thanksgiving weekend and so then the weekend that was way down was Thanksgiving weekend way less people went to stores on Black Friday, then went to stores in 2019 about six percent less, and then you know the rest of holiday was slightly above so if it weren't for the decline in Black Friday traffic I would say foot traffic and Retail was up about 2%, over 2019 but that Black Friday dip pulled the whole thing down to where we still aren't back to 2019 levels does that kind of make sense. [44:44] And so one of the things that is a common narrative about holiday and I've even contributed to this narrative is, man retailers are really trying to pull sales in and holiday starting earlier in October and you know holidays flattening it's less about these big, spikes on on Black Friday and Cyber Monday and so now that we have real data I'm like oh well let's see how, how that really held up in the first thing to know is. The early sales in October was kind of a myth like there was not an unusual spike in sales in October and so you know. [45:20] There was not a huge success in pulling sales into October and so then what I did is I went to similarweb which similar web has a data set of e-commerce site visits and what I like about that is, we can get much more accurate granular data than we can on like foot traffic or you know foot traffic or lucky to get weekly data but for e-commerce we can get daily number of sessions or unique visitors or things like that so I said hey let's take the hundred biggest e-commerce sites in the US and let's see total visits and let's compare, 2019 with 2021 and the first thing to remember is. You know Thanksgiving doesn't fall on the same day every year and so what I did is I normalize those I said let's not do November 1st through December 31st, let's do the 25 days before Black Friday in the 32 days after Black Friday so that we could kind of. Match up the the flow and what you'll see is there was a lot more traffic on e-commerce sites every day of holiday in 2021 than 20 then 20, except for two days Black Friday and Cyber Monday and Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2021 with still above. 2019 but they were nearly the same and so. The I guess what this would say is this partially Bears out our hypothesis. [46:48] E-commerce visits did level out like the traffic did get spread out to the whole 60 days more than ever before but those those two tent poles are still tent poles and they still are by far the busiest days, so I you know I definitely you know think that the narrative that like those Temple days don't matter anymore is kind of a misnomer and they you know they got nearly twice as many visits as a normal holiday day. Did that surprise you at all. Scot: [47:20] The surgeon the chart 21 is interesting at the end I think that's my procrastinator people. Jason: [47:28] So so yeah so. Scot: [47:29] It's where I shop. Jason: [47:29] It's God's talking about is the gap between 2019 and 2020 is pretty consistent but then opens up the most ever has, um the very end of the holiday and my hypothesis for that is again this is e-commerce it's Omicron again so I. There was pent-up demand to go to stores people were going the store store traffic was going up and then store traffic fell off a cliff the last half of December as people started getting nervous and so I think that you know drove more people to e-commerce again as my least is my hypothesis. [48:03] And so so that I think is a super interesting data set I definitely am grateful to have access to the similarweb stuff and wow I was diving into their data Isles one of the cool things there's we can see traffic on individual website so I said, well let's see who the winners and losers are in terms of traffic and the story here is. The the traffic is disproportionately going to the the big high-performing sites so you know not surprisingly, Amazon gets the most traffic but they also got the biggest chunk of traffic growth so sometimes you'd say hey the biggest most established players should be the hardest to grow. Amazon Druids traffic faster than any other top 10 retailer which is pretty impressive, and then the next biggest grower was Walmart so this is kind of the story of the rich getting richer and you know traffic and sales consolidating on the, those those very big a sites which is kind of the story you see on slide 29 if you're following along on the deck. Scot: [49:12] The thing that fascinates me about this data is you have like Etsy with the fourth most traffic but then they're like one of the smaller e-commerce sites right so does that, yeah it does that mean no well that's apples and oranges I guess that's all of retail in the previous comparison. Jason: [49:30] No that was at Seas. These e-commerce sales are about little less than 8 billion in the u.s. versus like Walmart at 60 billion but then Ed C does have like like nearly as much traffic as Walmart right like. I want to say they did 600 million, visits over the holiday period versus Walmart did like 1.1 billion so, so you know despite Walmart being 10 times as large they only had twice as much traffic and I think part of the reason for that is the the. Kind of thin long tail nature of Ed c means that their overall conversion rate and the amount of you know pay visits you have to do to find what you want is. Is higher than then it is on Walmart where you're more likely to go to Walmart with with high purchase intent for a particular item and these days it's pretty easy to find that item and get out. Um and that kind of is born out Ebay is still the second large just traffic site even though they're they're shrinking and again eBay's almost half the size of Walmart but eBay is traffic is still higher than Walmart's. Scot: [50:52] Yeah it's a huge it's kind of sad in one way but it's a huge opportunity Bay could get their act together and convert that traffic the way Walmart is they. Jason: [51:00] Yeah if I could redo our. Our predictions episode so you know I talked about in a number of times on this that one of the big trends is retail media networks and you know people selling ads what this data set uncovers more than anything else is the untapped opportunities Ed C needs to get a retail media Network up as soon as possible because I, as far as I know they don't have one. So they should be monetizing that traffic because that that that that's a valuable asset they're not they're not leaning into yet for all our Etsy listeners so then I will just say in this is you know the Chrome Legend in me, during holiday we talk a lot about these estimates from companies right so Adobe you know you know we have on the show and they give us their real time estimates based on on all the customers they see we have sales force on the show every year and they give us real time estimates and then you know when we talk about that I don't think we've had on the show is Mastercard has this product called spending pulse which is, kind of an anonymous aggregated view of all the people that buy stuff with MasterCard and. [52:08] Just just for interest Adobe MasterCard in Salesforce all agree, um that the e-commerce grew about 10% in in Holiday 9 or 10% and holiday of 2021 and that passes the smell test again we don't have the e-commerce data for for December yet so I don't really know but that. That feels like the right order magnitude so I think you know these guys all credibly predicted, the shape of holiday e-commerce but the only one of these guys that predicts brick and mortar is Mastercard right Adobe and Salesforce are pure online retailers and every year I always get weird data from MasterCard and I say this because the whole. The whole world and especially the media like publish this MasterCard data far and wide and and treat it as fax MasterCard like on December 26th said that, retail sales were going to be up 8.5% and that meant they were going to be up 10.7% versus 2019. And so we now know from the US Department of Commerce data that that they were off by 50%. So just call out to my friends at MasterCard that I'd be curious to understand what's going on there from my. Scot: [53:31] Your category thing. Jason: [53:32] Yeah from my seat Well they argue it's not but from my seat there consistently off on the brick-and-mortar number so I'm I'm curious and so then. [53:42] Every time I have this conversation with a colleague or a client the especially someone that maybe doesn't live and breathe e-commerce every day is soon as you start talking about this monster growth number, what everyone asks is yeah Jason but how much of that is inflation right because the thing we hear about in the media the most. Is is inflation inflation inflation and so you know it stands to reason if. [54:09] You know if something grew by 10% and people are paying more you know ten percent more for everything then that explains it and this you know this is an inflation story not a growth in consumer demand story and so I like to put in. Just a little kind of inflation picture at the end. The so I give I give folks a graph of the government, inflation numbers for for for these three years and and what you can see is that like for most of the pandemic inflation. Kind of stayed in the normal range and then we started this, this huge climb not until January of 2021 so if you remember like all a lot of this growth were talking about was 2020 growth, inflation doesn't explain that growth at all there is significant inflation in all of 2021 and it's historically High it's you know depending on how you want to count it could be a 40-year high and so it finished in December. [55:14] At seven percent and so if you figure normal inflation, is a about 11 and a half percent inflation was already high before the pandemic at 2.3 percent. You know if you say alright it should have been at 2.3 percent and it's at seven percent then you could. Say that the kind of back half of 2021 sales that you know. That three or four percent of it can be explained by inflation but definitely not this 22% were talking about. [55:48] And I don't know if you been thinking about her talking about the inflation a lot it's kind of. It's it's kind of funny because I always like to remind people the long-term picture we're all paying way less for goods than we ever did before so I kind of pull this. This 20-year inflation number to remind people that like we're paying fifty percent for a pair of what we paid 20 years ago we're paying, 30% last for personal products and beauty products were paying 17 percent last four cars we're paying 12% less for food all the tangible stuff we buy is getting cheaper because we're getting better at making, and where the American family's budget is going is to Services right so you know the American families having to pay way less for hard goods and food and way more for housing education and Healthcare and that's the big macro picture, but then we've had like the we talked about a lot of the growth in retail coming from all this economic stimulus, the the downside of that economic stimulus is. [56:47] It actually is one of the contributing factors to inflation right like the people have more money to spend, um they buy more the supply chain wasn't prepared for that buy more and so we have, supply chain disruption and so now you have Supply going down and demand going up and what do people do in a rational Market when they they have high demand and low Supply they they charge more, um and so then you know people say hey everything I buy is more expensive I need to get paid more and we have this unprecedented leverage that workers have right now because the labor shortage so they're all negotiating better prices and guess what that means they can afford. Pay more again and and manufacturers are you know having more costs of labor for making stuff so they're charging more and what's been super interesting and all this is, you know it's kind of an excuse for manufacturers to charge you more like most of these manufacturers that are raising their prices are also setting record profits so it's not like. True that like. All of this information is manufacturers passing costs on to Consumers it's a little bit of the the you know opportunity of the moment of you. Scot: [58:01] Yep it's complicated to the inflation a lot of its gas and then to your point a lot of it's stuff that doesn't have this inherent deflationary element to it like healthcare and we're paying more and more for healthcare education anything that has a service component is shooting way up. But even even in the short term though like yeah everything at the grocery store is insane right now it's crazy. Jason: [58:27] Yeah and food and gas are historically more volatile so inflation goes up and down more like side note you have to take all these numbers with a grain of salt because the way they measure it is, they measure the cost of a basket of goods that an average American bought but they built the basket of goods in like 1945. And so it's not the right past it's for today there's no iPhone in that basket. Scot: [58:50] Yeah. Jason: [58:52] So yeah so it's interesting fun it's fun for me because I'll actually be on Good Morning America this weekend talking about inflation. Yeah always fun but yeah I. I'm with you if you take what's called core inflation where you pull gas and food out inflation's like 4.5% so for most of these retail categories, it's part of the story but it definitely would be a mistake to Discount all this growth and say oh it's just. And that's my scoop that's your 36 slide deck that you're all welcome to grab and use my thanks to all the the data providers that contributed to all of it so I have a, a bibliography at the end so if you're interested in starting to track any of this data on your own I tried to make that easy for you. Scot: [59:41] Yeah when we do when we post the show will also try to get on our socials because I've had some people say they can't find the show notes and so we'll make sure that we disseminate this wide and so everyone has it. Jason: [59:55] Well Scott not surprisingly we were able to perfectly fill up an hour with this one topic. So hopefully you found value in this is Scott mentioned the top of the show if you did we sure would appreciate that five-star review, but thanks everyone for kind of following Along on this like pretty dry difficult data dump episode I hope I hope it was useful please, give us feedback if you liked it or if it was not the right format. Scot: [1:00:23] People of data in retailgeek delivers and until next time. Jason: [1:00:28] Happy commercing!

Alzabo Soup
Chapter 3, Part 1 - Gene Wolfe's Caldé of the Long Sun

Alzabo Soup

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 21, 2022 68:34


Intro -Metz and Phil review the Thanksgiving their families spent together. Content (5:34) - Discussion of Part 1 of Chapter 3 of Caldé of the Long Sun, by Gene Wolfe.

Craft Brewed Sports
Why Do I Hate Jim Kelly?

Craft Brewed Sports

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2022 90:10


Beers of the Week:- Snow Camp - Horse and Dragon Brewing- Psycho Penguin Vanilla Porter - Odyssey Beerwerks- Landshark - Anheuser-BuschNo Mookie tonight, so intern Christian steps up in a big way. While Scott and Mike bask in their playoff wins from the weekend, Christian reveals that he hates Jim Kelly for an unknown reason, that he ruined Thanksgiving reminding everyone that Kobe raped someone, that he has no need for the gym because he's getting plenty without working out, and that he has even more drunken walking stories in his arsenal.Also, the final installment of Hater's Guide to Hard Knocks…thank God!Be sure to check out friends of the show:Kong Beer Bong (craftbrewedsports.com/beerbong) will make sure you are the life of the party. Keep your beer cold in this koozie that converts to a beer bong in an instant. Order yours today.Beer Drop (craftbrewedsports.com/beerdrop) ships award winning craft beer directly to your doorstep. Sign up for a monthly plan, or shop all of the beers available at Beer Drop and get them shipped to you at a $5 flat rate. Morning Recovery (craftbrewedsports.com/hangover) guarantees that you'll wake up after a night of drinking more ready to take on your day. Use the code SPORTS at checkout for 20% off your non-subscription order.Dugout Mugs (dugoutmugs.com/craft) for one of a kind beer mugs and openers. Use our link for 15% off your entire order.

WHAT'S UP, BRO
WuBro 337 - Thanksgiving but NO THANKS

WHAT'S UP, BRO

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2022 125:24


Martica joins Nery and Stephanie as she is in town visiting family for Thanksgiving (2021) and we have a fan and friend of the show stop in to talk about toxic family as well as weight loss journey and opinions. Also have a great "Am I The A-Hole" (AITA) scenario. Make sure to "like" and "follow" our Facebook, YouTube and Twitch pages to watch the (video) show LIVE when we record next. Also, we Have MERCH MERCH MERCH available at this link: GEEKMORE MERCH Or you can search "GeekBro" on Amazon or go to TeePublic.com The podcast now has DONATE button and an AMAZON banner that you can click on to support the show.          Want MORE WuBro? Join our NEW Patreon page. Patreon.com/WuBroPod or Click HERE! WuBro is on INSTAGRAM! The podcast now has DONATE button and an AMAZON banner that you can click on to support the show. CLICK HERE

The Nomad Capitalist Audio Experience
Lars Larson: The American Dream in the Time of ''Wokeism''

The Nomad Capitalist Audio Experience

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2022 9:52


Lars Kristopher Larson is an American radio show host based in Portland, Oregon. In this video, he interviews Andrew to discuss the woke culture, freedom of speech, and taxes in the USA. https://nomadcapitalist.com/ Andrew Henderson and the Nomad Capitalist team are the world's most sought-after experts on legal offshore tax strategies, investment immigration, and global citizenship. We work exclusively with seven- and eight-figure entrepreneurs and investors who want to "go where they're treated best". Work with Andrew: https://nomadcapitalist.com/apply/ Andrew has started offshore companies, opened dozens of offshxaore bank accounts, obtained multiple second passports, and purchased real estate on four continents. He has spent the last 12 years studying and personally implementing the Nomad Capitalist lifestyle. Our growing team of researchers, strategies, and implementers add to our ever-growing knowledge base of the best options available. In addition, we've spent years studying the behavior of hundreds of clients in order to help people get the results they want faster and with less effort. About Andrew: https://nomadcapitalist.com/about/ Our Website: http://www.nomadcapitalist.com Subscribe: https://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=nomadcapitalist Buy Andrew's Book: https://amzn.to/2QKQqR0 DISCLAIMER: The information in this video should not be considered tax, financial, investment, or any kind of professional advice. Only a professional diagnosis of your specific situation can determine which strategies are appropriate for your needs. Nomad Capitalist can and does not provide advice unless/until engaged by you.

You Were Made for This
141: One Simple Way to Brighten Someone's Day

You Were Made for This

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2022 12:23


You will brighten someone's day when you initiate with them, letting them know you're thinking about them, and wondering how they are doing. Simple acts like this go a long way to deepening a relationship. Listen in. Help Needed Before we get into today's show I could use your help with something. I've been asked to give a Zoom presentation at the end of February to the Legacy Coalition, a Christian Grandparenting organization. It's not finalized yet, but I think I'm going to give a talk on memories that Grandparents can create for their grandchildren. As part of this, I would so like to share any memories you are willing to share of memories your grandparents created for you. They can be from when you were a child, or as an adult. It would be interesting and encouraging to hear any stories like this from you. It might even turn into a future podcast episode. Please send it to me in an email to john [at]caringforothers [dot]org. On to today's program. A relational word to focus on for 2022 Have you ever had one of those gray, dull days where things going on in your life match the dreary overcast weather of the middle of winter? But then suddenly out of nowhere, something happens to lift your spirits? Today's episode is about something simple we can do to brighten someone's day, which in turn will brighten our own. Because of several unrelated texts and emails, I stumbled upon one simple way to brighten another person's day. Here it is: initiate with someone. Yes, initiate. I know some of you like coming up with a word or goal to focus on for the new year. If that's the case with you, “initiate” would be a good choice. Initiate by taking the first step in connecting with someone. Here's the first example I stumbled upon Back in December of last year, there was a horrific display of evil in our community. It even made the national news here in the US. During an annual Christmas parade through the quaint downtown of Waukesha, Wisconsin, a man drove his SUV right down the middle of the parade. Starting from the rear, he plowed through marching bands, other parade participants, and spectators. Six people were killed, including an 8-year old boy. Over 60 others were injured and hospitalized. It was horrible. This happened on a Sunday. The next day the school was canceled in Waukesha. One of the donors to the sponsor of this podcast, Caring for Others, has a high school senior in that school system. I happen to know this young man through his parents and I wondered if he was affected by this trauma. A text to initiate contact So without giving it a second thought I texted him with this: ME: I am thinking about you today, given the Christmas parade tragedy of yesterday. I heard school is canceled today. I'm wondering how you're doing with all that happened. Did you know anyone who was hurt? HIM: I'm doing okay, thank you for thinking of me. I wasn't at the parade but I know people who saw it happen and everyone's a little stressed about it. I know one person who got hit by the SUV but no serious injuries on his part. ME: I'm glad to hear you're okay. It's certainly a terrible tragedy, certainly for those injured or worse, and for those like your friends who saw it happen. HIM: Yeah, thank you for checking on me though it means a lot. I was a little surprised at first that my simple spur-of-the-moment text meant a lot to him. But as I re-read his reply to my text it struck me how he appreciated the fact I was thinking of him in the context of this terrible event. Thinking about what he might be dealing with prompted me to initiate with him through a simple text. Who of us wouldn't feel good knowing someone else was thinking about us in the midst of a difficult situation. A second example of initiating to brighten someone's day Last Thanksgiving our daughter living in South Carolina was in a particularly grateful mood and sent me a text that read I am thankful for you and all your support this year. Thanks for checking in on me so many times this fall. It really meant a lot to me to know you were thinking about me. There it is again, this theme of initiating with a person that starts with simply thinking about the person and checking in on them. Thanksgiving without your wife Around the same time I got the text from my daughter I was thinking about my missionary friend, Martin. I talked about him in episodes 071 and 072 concerning the sudden death of his wife. I was thinking about him last November because it was going to be his second Thanksgiving without her. So I called to wish him a Happy Thanksgiving. My call went to voice mail, but within a few hours he responded to me in a text: Hi John, thank you for reaching out and thinking of us. Serena's godmother from Germany is visiting and celebrating Thanksgiving with us. That's a blessing. Hope you have a good Thanksgiving as well!! A voice from the past initiated with Janet and me Here's the last example of how to brighten someone's day. On November 10th of last year, Janet and I were traveling and in the evening I checked our voicemail at home. To my astonishment, there was a message from Margaret, a friend from over 50 years ago we had lost contact with. She remembered our daughter's birthday was coming up the next day, November 11th - Veteran's Day, and that prompted her to track us down after all these years have passed. Her remembering our daughter's birthday, made her think of us, and that prompted her to contact Janet and me. Her initiating with us like this certainly brightened our day and has led to several follow-up phone calls between the three of us. Sadly it's been just the three of us talking because her wonderful husband died two years ago. I won't go any further now to describe this remarkable re-connection. It deserves a podcast episode of its own at a later date. So what does all this mean for YOU? The more I think of these examples I've shared, and others I haven't, they remind me of how Jesus initiates with us. His incarnation at Christmas was him coming to be with us, so one day we can go to be with him. They remind me of the story of Jesus initiating with the woman at the well. He went out of his way to be with her, even though she was so very different from him. She was a woman, he's a man. Jesus' followers at the time looked down upon her.. Yet Jesus initiated with her anyway, which in a very powerful way, brightened her day. Read the story in John 4; it's all there. Given that we are all created in the image of God, when we initiate well with people, without any motive for personal gain, we reflect the character of God. And in doing so, we will find fulfillment in being the person God created us to be. I wonder who are the people in your life you could bless by initiating with them? Maybe even someone from your distant past. I know if you were to ask God who these people are He would show you. Here's the main point I hope you remember from today's episode To brighten someone's day, check-in with them to let them know you are thinking about them and wondering how they are doing. For when you brighten someone's day, you'll brighten your own. It's what we're all made for. I'd love to hear any thoughts you have about today's episode. You can leave them in the “Leave a Comment” box at the bottom of the show notes. Closing In closing, I hope your thinking was stimulated by today's show, to think about the people you could initiate with, and then act on that thought. It would be one way to find the joy God intends for you through your relationships. Because after all, You Were Made for This. Well, that's all for today. I look forward to connecting with you again next week. Goodbye for now. Related episodes you may want to listen to 071: How to Help a Grieving Friend 072: What I Learned From a Grieving Friend Our Sponsor You Were Made for This is sponsored by Caring for Others, a missionary care ministry. We depend upon the generosity of people like you to pay our bills.  If you'd like to support what we do with a secure tax-deductible donation, please click here. Thank you.  

Pod'N Me
Virtue-us Podisode on the Epicast

Pod'N Me

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2022 39:47


Hershall, we had a great day on the church bus... It was renamed as an Epic-cast by one of our listeners. I think that is carrying things way too far. We started by settling a HUGE offense that happened over the Thanksgiving and Christmas season to one of the if not THE leading youth pastor of our movement... none other that Rev. Matthew Wilson. He was guest on the show when Deacon Dustin was on vacation (big word for R &R) back in the fall of '21 and when we were passing out accolades (another big word that sounded like it fit there) over the holidays we failed to mention his valuable contribution to Pod'N Me. We finished the day by talking about an important topic of what it means to have virtue. That only came after the Deacon Busted open a needed discussion about one of the mane (word for hair) characters in the Old Testament. We'd love to hear from you so email us at devin@podnme.org. Follow us on Instagram @podn_me. Blessings! 

Tanach Study
Yeshayahu Perek 12: Thanksgiving

Tanach Study

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2022


Yeshayahu Perek 12: Thanksgiving This perek in Sefer Yeshayahu is taught by Rabbi Albert Setton TanachStudy.com  

The Remote Real Estate Investor
What investors need to know about buying in Galveston TX

The Remote Real Estate Investor

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2022 42:46


Ariana White is part of the Roofstock Certified Agent Network and serves in the Galveston TX area. In this episode, she shares what investors need to be looking at if they are considering investing in the Galveston market. We cover both the short term and longterm rental markets, property taxes, zoning, climate and much more.      Ariana's contact info: arianawhitesellstx@gmail.com - @arianasellstexas --- Transcript   Before we jump into the episode, here's a quick disclaimer about our content. The Remote Real Estate Investor podcast is for informational purposes only, and is not intended as investment advice. The views, opinions and strategies of both the hosts and the guests are their own and should not be considered as guidance from Roofstock. Make sure to always run your own numbers, make your own independent decisions and seek investment advice from licensed professionals.   Michael: What's going on everybody? Welcome to another episode of The Remote Real Estate Investor. I'm Michael Albaum and today I'm joined by Ariana and Larry White. And they're gonna be talking to us today both about the long term and short term rental markets out in Houston and Galveston, Texas. So let's get right into it.   Ariana and Larry White, thank you both so much for joining me today. I really appreciate you taking the time.   Ariana: Yeah.   Larry: Pleasure to be here, man.   Michael: I'm so excited. You two are kicking butt in the short term rental space out in the Houston and Galveston markets. And I'm wondering if you can give our listeners just a really quick background on who you two are as power couple.   Ariana: Oh, power couple. Wow, that's nice.   Larry: Crazy. Yeah. All right, Jay Z and Beyonce over here.   Michael: That's it.   Ariana: But you're Beyonce, and I'm Jay Z!   So um, so my name is Ariana. I've been a real estate agent for eight years. And I originally started in Vegas, I managed a team out there. Larry drags me to Houston, and actually took like a year off of real estate while I got my license here. And now I manage a team out in Houston. And so we specialize primarily in first time homebuyers and investors. And now going deep into the short term rental market.   Michael: Awesome. Love it. And Beyonce. I mean, Larry?   Larry: Yeah. And so I have a little bit different. I started about 1516 years ago, and convinced her to get into real estate, about halfway through my career. And so I've been a pretty successful solo agent, ran some very large teams grew a national real estate brokerage around foreclosures and REOs, which took me into the investor space to begin with. And so now we really have some of the most successful groups of Realtors across the country that we teach to duplicate what we did. And we focus and Ariana has a very successful team here in Houston. And as she mentioned, we're actually in the short term rental space personally. And so we're teaching other people, you know, investors that come to us quite often teaching them how to kind of duplicate what we've done and learn from our mistakes as well.   Michael: Oh, my God, amazing. Well, we are going to have a lot of fun with this episode. I can't wait to hear about what you two are doing personally, in the short term rental space. But to kick things off, I would love to just get a high level overview of the Houston and kind of Galveston markets. Ariana, as you see them, like what should investors What do investors need to know if I'm totally unfamiliar with those markets?   Ariana: Yeah, so Houston is really interesting, because we're one of the only cities where there is no zoning in Houston.   Michael: So multi family, commercial single family, there's no…   Ariana: Whatever you want.   Michael: A whole smorgasbord.   Ariana: Yes, and it changes as it goes out into the suburbs. But um, what's really every street is different in Houston. And there's certain little, little neighborhoods that have been, you know, people have moved in and fixed up old homes, and it's really developed, each little area of Houston has really developed its own adorable community. And I will say that the most, for the most part, my investors typically end up being either somewhere around the Med Center, which is a community here it is full of like young professional renters. And there many people in grad school, you have ages down there, Rice University is down there. And there's lots of young professionals that are all working in the hospitals. And so that area is a big area for renters and very high rents, and that is located in the heart of Houston.   And also, one of the biggest areas that we're currently seeing is the Spring Tomball Humble. It's looks like humble, you pronounce it Um, okay, so, um, that neighborhood, the all of those neighborhoods, and great low tax rates, that's going to be like the major. That's the key piece. You're looking for a low tax rate in Texas, because property taxes can fluctuate a lot. Yeah. And all of those areas seem to have like young, single family homes that are consistently rented and low property taxes, which is a double win. So those are up and coming areas. Right now we're seeing a lot of our investors kind of go towards   Michael: Love it.   Larry: And then on the you know, it shifts a little bit when you start getting into the short term rental market, right? Because the taxes, I mean, you always want the lowest taxes. But if you are able to, you know, they talk about in real estate, location, location, location, right. So if you have a high demand because your next Minute Maid Park, because you're in Galveston, and it's a beach destination, not just for people coming in from out of town, but from people in Houston going and renting beach houses and stuff, their taxes can be offset that way. And so that's where you start getting into what is the drive? What is the demand? And like, what are our occupancy ratios, you know, for the entire month.   And so that's where you start looking at seasonality and what's driving traffic, are there sporting events, or they're this or they're that. And that's where a lot of our investors can start buying maybe a little bit more expensive properties, right, like, maybe they go down to Edo, which is kind of East downtown, which is one of the top four markets and neighborhoods. And if you were doing a long term rental, it wouldn't make sense, it has high tax rates, you have to minimum prices, probably around 430. And it probably only rents for $3,000 a month. So most of the time, that's not going to pencil out for a long term.   But you switch that to a short term, that it's close proximity to everything, and you can get three or $400 that night, and it's occupied 50% of the month, you start doing those, those numbers and you're like, Oh, hold on, this makes sense. So this is really where, you know, when you're looking at an investor, what is your strategy? What is your goal this year, and then we try and create a portfolio or a plan that aligns with their goals. And the numbers will tell us if we're on the right track or not.   Michael: I love it. I love it. So and I think this is great, the conversation kind of naturally bifurcated into the long term side and the short term side, which is I think exactly where I want to take it anyhow. So getting back to the long term side for just a minute. And then I wanted to back to the short term side. What should people be aware of in terms of like, big companies that are headquartered out there? Like, why are people moving to the Houston Galveston area? And then for the short term side? Why are they visiting the area? I know you mentioned the beach, but curious to know, what other attractions are drawing people to the area?   Ariana: Yeah, so in Houston, and what's real, we have seen what I'm lovingly referring to as the great migration. So we have had a lot of people move here from out of state, their number one draw is low cost of living, right, much lower than many other states that we're going to see either on the East Coast or on the West Coast. And, and what people are really looking for, and what I'm seeing mostly is, um, they're having, like the biggest draw is space. And we see a lot of people moving here from like, very populated areas. And granted, you can get a city feel here, but you can also go 30 minutes out and have an acre of land if you want to and have a full garden and farm and some cows like I mean, and you can have all kinds of tax exemptions, too.   So if for any of our military clients, you get a huge tax tax exemption, particularly if you're a disabled vet, you have a homestead exemption here for property taxes. If this is your main living area, you can also have a senior citizen tax exemption. So Texas is really they love tax exemption. So a lot of our clients will use them.   To draw that's a huge draw to Texas, people are looking for a little bit more space to either like a personal or business. I'm out here. short term rental wise in Galveston area. We have Moody Gardens. It's the closest beach the water's warm, and it's like a really great place to go take young like children because it doesn't get super deep. And   Larry: Yeah, the NASA you have the space center, right and so all of that starts to come into play, which gives you a pretty good occupancy. And what we've seen during kind of this pandemic, right is that people have been wanting to get away and have more staycations and stuff as well. So you know when we get into our we have a short term rental we have a 20 acre ranch out in Fredericksburg and we saw our vacancies like drop drastically because everybody was able to work from home. So as long as we had a decent Wi Fi, they were like, Well, man, why don't I go out in Texas wine country, you know, versus my house and let's go on and the kids can go play outside and do this.   So it you know, the market is changing, and we just have to keep stepping along with it. And the customers will tell us exactly what they're looking for.   Ariana: Yeah, I actually had a client today call me today. She's gonna be moving here from California. And she's a nurse. And she's like, and I was like, you know, what's your timeline look like? When do you want to be here, and she said, You know, I can really move anytime I'm just planning on flying back. She's in the Bay Area in California. And she's like, I'm just planning on flying back to work. And then I'll live in Texas,   Michael: She's gonna commute.   Ariana: Mm hmm. And that was a very common thing that we see. So if you're able to remote work, or maybe you don't have to be in the office only, like one or two days a week, people are just buying a little, you know, having a little studio wherever they are based out of renting that out when they're not they're coming back living their main life in Texas and doing you know, flip flopping the opposite. So yeah, so it's, it's provided a lot of this new way of looking at how to be efficient in your workforce has provided a lot of opportunities for a lot of people, as well, in their, you know, in looking looking at your business in a different way.   Michael: Oh, that's incredible. Gonna be racking up those frequent flyer miles for sure. Yeah. That's awesome. So Arianna, you were mentioning a couple of the neighborhoods up and coming neighborhoods? Yeah. That you were seeing curious if you can give everyone listening and watching an idea of kind of price points. And what you mean when you say low taxes?   Ariana: Yes. Okay. So taxes here in Texas can range differently depending on every every little city has a different tax rate. And so we're known for having our property taxes be a little bit higher than some other states. And so that was definitely something that we have to consider when you're going into an investment property, right, the taxes can either make you or break you. And so when we're looking at properties that we're submitting to Roofstock, and for our investors, I am looking specifically for areas that have lower tax rates, because those are the ones that are giving us our best ROI. So one city here is Missouri City, it's south of the heart of Houston. And that city has notoriously low tax rates, which is great. It's also like a high, it's not a city feel. And it is a suburbia field. So there's lots of single family residences there. That area typically commutes to Houston for work. So there's lots of renters in that area. We've seen great success there.   And Rosenberg, Tomball, Spring, and Humble. Those are all of those areas have had really low tax rates in certain pockets and have given our investors like a really good opportunity to get a home up there.   Larry: And also what you're seeing is that Houston is expanding, right? If you look at from Dallas, to Houston over to Austin, San Antonio is called the Texas triangle. Okay, it's the fastest growing region in the country. And so what happened? What's happening? You have Dallas expanding, you have Austin, San Antonio, expanding, you have Houston expanding? And so everything's kind of like merging together together. Yeah. Uh huh. And so these suburbs, right, like, especially when you start getting this increase in prices, you know, people start going outside of the metro area, because the metro area, the median price point might be 400 500, etc. Now they can move out and pay 200 300 and get, you know, just a lot more bang for your buck.   And so those cities that that she's talking about there are starting to see that and so they're still have a lot of population, a lot of people going to them, you have the difference in the prices, which could help you drastically if you're in that long term rental space.   Michael: Totally. And what are some of those medium price points and associated rents that you'd expect to see in some of these markets?   Ariana: So for the suburbia area of Houston, and what I'm typically seeing median price points, you can find a for the ideal property, right? The ideal property is a four bedroom. Single Story, maybe two story home, two and a half bath. And right now we're seeing those rents typically, well, we're seeing those sales, typically between 280,000 to 400,000, depending on the community, somewhere in that I just got one of my Roofstock investors into a new home community actually, this one particular new home community, a lot of 10% investors. And so we were one of the last homes to get in there. And he bought a beautiful four bedroom, two and a half bath in a great neighborhood brand new home. And he got that one for 330. And so that was yeah, it was it was a great, great deal. And we're expecting to rent it out for right around $3,000.   Michael: Holy smokes. I mean, you're just flirting with that 1% rule.   Ariana: Yes, we're right. We can get like right in there. If I get like one person, I get really super excited. So we're like, right there.   Michael: Yeah, awesome. Well, something I think people like either fail to recognize or don't want to recognize is like, you might not buy it at 1%. But in five years, it could absolutely be a 1% property and all your expenses should remain relatively unchanged or increased slightly. But if your rent can outpace your expense increase, you got to meet in the shade.   Larry: Yeah. And here's one of the things for Texas, specifically that you have to think about in 2008. And nine, the market got crushed, right. I mean, we like we came from Las Vegas, we saw homes depreciate 60 to 70%. Yeah, right, like just crush, you did not see that same price depreciation here in Texas for a reason, right? You also didn't see it go up 90%, like you saw really good appreciation, you didn't see the counter the effects of the depreciation. And part of that is because to do a cash out refi, like the state of Texas requires that if you're going to pull money out, you have to keep 80% in your home, so you still had some you still had a cushion there.   So they might have lost their equity. Right, but they weren't upside down on their homes. And I'm not saying that Texas wasn't affected or anything like that. It just wasn't as affected as much as some of the other areas. And so, you know, there's an appreciation, because there's this built in stability factor here in Texas, that you're going to get some appreciation play. It's not going to be 90%. But it's going to be healthy, it's going to be sustainable, which is what we saw in the last cycle.   Michael: Interesting. Okay. Very good to know. Very good to know. And from a short term rental perspective, what is it that you look for? Because you taught you spoke about your ideal, you know, for two and a half single story for your long term? What is it that you're looking for when you're putting short term stuff on Rootstock?   Ariana: So specifically to Galveston, we like to have something that's close to beach access, that's going to be number one, it doesn't have to be exactly on the water, either. It can be a couple streets back as long as you're able to get there. There's also some services in Galveston, if you do get once a little bit farther away, you can rent a golf cart for the week. So those are fun services that you can have awesome with your rentals as well. And access to the look, there's like maybe like one gigantic strip going down Galveston, so access to that, but not so close that it's going to impede or you have to cross it to get to the water. And that's ideal. And then what we're always looking for is a space that has enough to at least have one of the bedrooms have a couple bunk beds in it.   So an ideal situation is that you could fit, you know, at least two bedrooms, preferably three bedrooms, and a big living area. And a lot of the houses and Galson. I know you said you'd never been up here. They're up high. So they're up high to make way for the water to come in. So they're built on stilts. And so it's called a pier and beam, but they're up high. And so a lot of times there is like an outdoor activity where that people can add that to the house, under under the under the actual house. So there's like badminton and some people put pool tables down there and make use of the space. It's a very, it's super fun to drive through because all the houses are really tall. They all look like they're walking.   So yeah. So if you've never been to I mean, it's really, really it's an Galveston, my girlfriend was just there this weekend, they rented a big old house for her. Typically, it's like at least two families people have to travel together to Galveston. So um, so she wanted a big ol house and the people that were next to her were from Fort Worth, and they had you know, they had six kids and for adults with them and people like to go because when you go to the beach you don't have to be the only one in charge of your children right so   Michael: Built in babysitters   Ariana: But it's so accessible to so many parts of Texas you know it's just a it's the closest beach to most people in Texas so and no to everybody in Texas I gotta Yeah, I'm on the road down south to like Corpus Christi, right. But it's it's The closest beach to so many of us, yeah, that it's, um, it's just so accessible. So one of the big things is just obviously like, making sure it's super clean, outdoor showers are a big plus. So that you can stand inside your house, these are all kind of things you have to think about to be Galveston specific. And, and then water rental situations, you know, you can have that extra up, you can have your clients pay extra in order to have that and that's all part of the property management takes care of that. But you know, if you wanted paddleboards, or other things that you wanted accessible to be special for your client.   And then also, one of the biggest benefits is that this isn't a one and done situation for the people that are renting out this area, which is why it's not necessarily seasonal. And there are in the summer, obviously super booked 100% capacity all the time. But even in December, November, January, February, people go even if it's cold, because they the water never gets like freezing. So today it's like 45 degrees, which is like a one off. But last week it was it was 85.   Michael: So Holy smokes   Ariana: And like I can speak in, in my own experience. If there's a house that you liked when you went to Galveston and it's in the you know Surfside community or Pirates Cove, or, you know any of the little communities inside Galveston, you go back to the same house. Like if you like that house, you'll go back to the same house. And so like, like my girlfriend who just went this past weekend, she has stayed at that house three times already. And she likes that house. So she will continue to go to that house. Yeah, and so that's really one of the benefits of Galveston is a It isn't like an aspen where you only go, you know, once a year, or you can only go you know, it's easily accessible. And it's really used very often. Interesting. Yeah, you create recurring recurring clients.   Larry: And people want also, you know, when you start talking about Airbnb, people want that hotel feel, right, they want it to be crisp, they want it to be clean, right? So the furniture, the aesthetics that that you put into it, right? They want it to be like, Oh, if they have this dream vacation home, what would this look like? Even if it's small, right? They want that aesthetic to it, which is important to make sure that you decorate it correctly, that you have the right furniture and stuff to it, because there's a lot of competition now. And so reviews are super important. Who you have managing it? Is it super important? Are you responsive? are you handling issues and stuff. And that's been an entire learning experience for ourselves as we just entirely remodel this 20 acre ranch, right? All of the units on it, and we're coming up with a lot, man, it's a 30 year old home and you know, it has a pump house and these things that we're not used to dealing with.   And, you know, it's it's a very different experience, but all things that need to be thought about to make sure that you're at the top of the list, you're getting the most exposure. And, you know, you have, you know, the highest, you know, occupancy as possible, because I mean, do the math, right, like I've just pulled up Airbnb over here right now and looking at Galveston. And I mean, probably the average, you know, for this weekend is $300 a night there's some going up to six $700 A night, but $300 A night average. Now, it's not going to be 100% occupancy all the time. But man, that's a potential of $9,000 a month in cash flow, right like you have one or two good months and like you're paying for your entire year off of off of one good season there.   Michael: That's incredible. That's incredible. So we've talked about so many of the benefits and Lewers of the Texas market. Now let's talk about the dark underbelly because there's got to be one there can only be this great heaven on earth. So talk to us about what should investors especially remote investors who might not be familiar with the Texas market, be aware of what's some of the the hair that some of these deals might have.   Ariana: So number one, you need to and and to cover that when we're looking at Roofstock properties. I'm specifically picking for myself and my team properties to show investors that do not have this okay. So you have to look at the flood maps. That is like in Houston and Galveston, that is the number one deal killer. Because as an investor, you don't want renters in there, they're going to be in a 100 year floodplain that's going to create a lot of problems for you. It's going to create a lot of money for you. And on top of that flood insurance can really take, make it or break it in this in this deal. There are some properties where you can get, you know, your flood insurance for $400 a year.   Also, just a little side note, as a real estate agent in the Houston market, it doesn't matter if that area has ever flooded or not buy the flood insurance, it's a good investment. So um,   Michael: Even if it's outside of a flood zone?   Ariana: Even if it's outside of a flood zone as a real estate agent, I would highly recommend because you never know, we moved here nine months before Harvey we are not in a floodplain. We asked her real estate agent at the time and our insurance provider at the time do we need flood insurance? They said no. Nine months later, we flooded in Harvey, so do not take it from our pain. Let us like learn off our pain. And that is a very expensive fix when you don't have flood insurance,   Larry: the 400 and it literally because we weren't in a floodplain because our home had never flooded the flood insurance was $425 for the year.   Ariana: Yeah, right. And we did it. We're like, No, we don't need it. It's fine. We've come from the desert, like who really floods? I didn't really know. No. So I tell everybody just do it. I mean, just just by the flood insurance, you never know what's going to happen. Houston has crazy weather. So that's number one. That's definitely the one when you're looking at properties. See if you're in a floodplain, see if the property has ever flooded before, ask your agent. If it has, that's not necessarily a deal killer if it was a one off, but we need to look at your flood insurance, if you can be grandfathered into these flood insurance rates, if the flood insurance is going to be extraordinarily high, it's a good opportunity during your option period to maybe look at other properties that fit what you're looking for specifically. Um, yeah, so that's number one.   And number two, what else is weather?   Larry: Weather is by far the biggest one. I mean, as we've seen, winter freezes, right? Like all the pipes rusting, like, hurricanes, like weather is number one. Two, I would say is the is the taxes as the property taxes that was kind of eye opening and shocking. As we started diving into this market, it was much higher than anything that we were used to. I mean, yeah, tax rates can be upwards of 3% of a home's value. And so that drastically changes some of your numbers and stuff when you're looking at that investment.   Michael: Yeah, yeah, that makes total sense.   Ariana: And then anything else parking if you're looking in Houston parking is a necessary thing you need to look at, you need to make sure that you know, there's lots of teeny tiny, you know, three story homes, that would be great rental homes, but they're parking on the street. And that will really it'll it'll be very hard to get, you know, some renters in there that want to be able to drive into a driveway and so that that is definitely something to look at specifically that is for inside Houston.   Larry: And one other thing, especially as we're talking about short term, Airbnb, is deed restrictions, community restrictions. And this isn't just for Houston and Galveston, this is a cross the country for instance, Fredericksburg, right, they have, they're trying to pass like no short term Airbnb. Now we're outside of the city. And so it doesn't really affect us. But this is what some of the other Airbnb owners are going through that they're having to fight legislation. They're having to register properties, which is additional expense, paying taxes and stuff, additional taxes.   So based on the municipality, you have to look at some of these details and know what you're looking for to make sure that that it's again fitting your short term and your long term goal, right.   Michael:  Yeah, but I thought you said that Texas love tax exemptions, what's what's with the bait and switch?   Ariana: Now we do love tax exemptions. So you just got to find the right one that fits what your look all right.   Michael: Makes sense. It makes sense.   Larry: In Fredericksburg, we have an agricultural exemption, we have Longhorns and donkeys and stuff on the property. And so literally, our taxes are almost nil. There's wildlife tax exemptions, there's a lot of things. But again, this is where you have to do some research. If the numbers work as status quo and now you start digging and it just elevates that return on investment. Now we're we're really into the money.   Michael: So what you're saying is I need to go buy a property downtown Houston and get a couple cattle for the backyard.   Ariana: You There are many places in Houston you will see I mean you will be right off i 10 And there will be building building building building empty lot cows on it building building building. And the reason is because the builders when they're going in there, and they bought the land they put cows on the property in order to bypass the exemptions, or I'm sorry, bypass the taxes and have an exemption until they're ready to build. So   Michael: Oh my gosh,   Ariana: You can also do that with goats. You can also have bees. So that's wild. Yeah. And so they leave, they leave the cows there, they get the exemption, the cows eat the grass, they chill for a couple months. And then when they're ready to build, they move their cows to the next place that they bought. So   Michael: Oh, my What a trip. That's awesome.   Something I wanted to mention that you were you were talking about flood insurance, is I think it's so important for investors to be thinking about too, as we do start to see more and more storms, more aggressive storms, like flood zones change. And so I think that's something that people need to be aware of is just because you're not in a flood zone today doesn't mean you won't be tomorrow or next year, or whatever the case may be. And so just be cognizant of that, if it's an investment that you might be selling at some point down the road. That's a hurdle that any buyer who buys your investment property is going to have to deal with. So just be thinking about that, putting it out there for whatever that's worth.   Ariana: Yep, that was that is very, you're absolutely. After any major storm, if FEMA came out, they'll redo the flood maps. And so you should get an update of that like from your agent. Or you can always inquire about a property and ask and we'd be able to pull that real easily.   Michael: Awesome. Okay, I want to shift gears here really quick with the last few minutes with y'all and find out what it is that you're all doing with this 20 acre ranch and short term rentals. That is friggin awesome.   Ariana: Yes, yeah. So it was a COVID purchase. Actually, I had found the property we had been looking all over, we just really wanted something we didn't know where we wanted it. And we wanted it originally closer to us, because we want it to be able to manage it. Fredericksburg is about three and a half hours away from us. But then we have a certain budget in place. But then you know, there I am wandering the internet at night looking for whatever I'm looking for. And here comes this 20 acre property that shows up with this old 1970s Looking ranch style on it. And it was double our bedrooms. And double the size without looking for the double was hired early, double, double everything.   Larry: The time is there like I was like no way.   Ariana: No way. Yeah, it really was exactly double everything because we're looking at an hour and a half from us. And this is three and a half hours from us. And it's twice as vague and it's twice as expensive. And he's like, I don't know. And I was like, I'm very intuitive. You know, some people just feel things. I don't know, this is it. I was like you got to find an extra $1,000   Michael: Start looking at couch cushions.   Ariana: So we found that. Yeah, so we went we bought it. It was a single owner. She was she was her husband, but she owned the vineyard next door to it. And she's like, you know, it was just too much. And I have all this other land. And so I just want to I really wanted to give it to somebody who would do something interesting with it. And so and she had, you know, there's some people who want to go in there and do an RV park. There are some people who wanted to go in there and do some other I don't remember what it was something else. She didn't like them. She was like, No, this is this is like my baby. And then we went in there and said, you know, we'd really like to short term rental it and then eventually, as we continue to grow build tiny homes, that's my ultimate dream is I want to have a tiny home condo for people to just like get off the grid and just detox and you know, like, just have some solitude. And that's really important to us. And so she was like, Yeah, let's go for it. As longest escrow lives.   Larry: Yeah. Took appraisal issues.   Ariana: Like I mean, it was so it was like things were you know, appraisals are taking forever and getting a 20 acre property appraised and surveyed.   Michael: Yeah, took a long time.   Ariana: Yeah. And you know, we work in cities so the whole ranch and like the dirt lots were they called ranch land and land and ranch.   Larry: Oh farm and land   Ariana: I don't do I don't do farming land. So we had to bring somebody else from our company who does farming land to come help us with our own deal because I didn't know about farming land and septics you know, I know city septics I don't know about these subjects in the middle of nowhere and the properties on a well you know, there's it's been fun and, and quite a learning experience. Navigating all of this but um,   Larry: We call we fully remodeled it like we took it down to the studs, remodeled everything because we bought it it was a 1600 square foot, one bedroom, one bath, which is why it was still on the market, because there weren't a lot of families but we knew that that's not what we wanted it for. So we converted the laundry room into a second bathroom, and the living area into a second bedroom. So now we have a 1600 square foot, two bedroom, two bath rents for four to $600 a night with a pool. And then it has a 600 square foot guest house that we fully remodeled as well, which rents for 150 to 250 a night. And then we've already purchased our first Airstream that we're rehabbing. And we'll build a deck around it. And that will be our first additional unit that we add on.   Michael: So cool.   Ariana: And then we're talking. So we're talking to some people who want to do goat yoga, in Fredericksburg, and they want to hold their goats on our land. And so that's, you know, where Larry and I are, kind of hippies. And so   Larry: We're like, let's do this. Let's use all 20 acres.   Ariana: So cool. But really, it's because it's outside the city. It's got dark sky. So it is incredible to be out there in the middle. I mean, it is dark,   Larry: You can see the Milky Way actually running through   Ariana: It's beautiful. And we call it wild soul sanctuary. Love that. So we've just started doing some retreats out there and bringing in some people who do you know, Healing Retreats on the weekends, they'll rent it from us and you know, can sleep a good amount of people and we're open to people like camping on our land and stuff. So   Michael: Yeah, I was gonna ask, have you ever heard of hipcamp?   Ariana: Yeah, so we haven't quite dealt. We had people personally ask us if they can camp on our land, which we're open to. But we haven't quite. I haven't gotten into that yet. That's kind of next on our list to see. You know, how much of this we can rent out. Yeah. To camping. So tonight.   Michael: I bet a ton, I have been to some some hipcamps and they don't provide jack squat and like, seriously, I'm paying whatever, 60 bucks a night for like plastic Adirondack chairs and a dirt piece of lots of foot, my head, whatever. So there's definitely a market for it.   Ariana: Okay, well, that definitely writing you said hip camp camp.   Michael: Yep, yep, hipcamp.   Ariana: Okay. I knew there was a name for it. But you know, I'm also not much of a camper. And   Larry: She's more of that city. Like,   Ariana: Like, I let me take my shoes off, but like, let me get into a shower. So like,   Michael: There you go. Well set up glamping tents to?   Arianna: Well, that wasn't a yurts are a possibility. Yes, I think what I really want is like a one bedroom a frame. Like that's what I that's like, that's like mine, and no one's gonna be allowed in it. It's just gonna be for me.   Michael: That's so good. Oh, that's so good. Well, just the last question I have for you both, is how do you run your expense numbers on short term rentals? I think that's what throws a lot of investors for a loop. They hear like, holy crap, I can make nine grand a month, and then they're comparing that against their long term rental expenses. And that doesn't always jive. So how should people be thinking about expenses?   Larry: Yeah, so um, that is definitely it is the expenses are going to be increased, right? Because you have more turnover, you have cleaning crews, you have maintenance, you have handyman, etc. And   so we're, we're paying about 10% a month for property management, but we take on a lot of the communication. There's other, like, it's not uncommon to see 20 or 30%. You know, property management fees. Yeah. But they're also they're renting, they're renting it out. They're handling the calls, they're doing everything. So really depends. As our first one we wanted to be kind of hands on, see how this worked, and then evaluate, like, do we want to manage this this much, or do we want to outsource? And so that's where we're testing right now. So we can give people feedback on our experience.   But I would say I would estimate 30-35% I think that you can get it down a lot lower than that. Okay, but I would estimate that I'm a big fan of under promise over deliver. And so if you estimate it 35% and ends up at 25% You're like bonus, right? Yeah, I'm on that side. But again, even if you take, you know, $9,000 Uh, you know, if we just did $9,000 a month, and you minus 35%. I mean, you're that's still almost $6,000 a month, right now, you got to start looking at occupancy rates and things like that. And now seasonality comes into play, like after summertime, it will almost be like for three or four months 100% occupied. And so those months will really make up for some of the slower months right now. It's pretty much every weekend, like weekend warriors kind of get aways, but we haven't had anybody stay there during the weekend. Yeah.   Michael: Okay. Okay. Yeah. See, I guess it's really very much market specific around what your occupancy and then associated expenses are because those two are related. How much cleaning you're gonna do, how much turnover you're going to have is a function of your occupancy.   Ariana: Exactly.   Larry: I would say Galveston, you know, right now, when you're looking at the school seasons and stuff like that, you won't see as many weekday rentals. Okay, so that's, that's one thing to kind of look at. Christmas, spring breaks, like Thanksgiving, you start to get kind of the weekdays when people can travel with their families and stuff is what we've noticed so far.   Michael: Okay. Well, that makes sense. Well, you two have been so generous with your time. Thank you so much, again, for hanging out with me and sharing all this wisdom. If people have more questions for you, or want to get a hold of you, what's the best way for them to do that?   Ariana: You can email me at Arianawhitesellstx@gmail.com. Or you can also find me on Instagram: Ariana Sells Texas. And yeah, I'm more than happy to speak with anybody about the current market.   Ariana: So she's like she's licensed here in Texas runs the entire team. So she's the go to for anything here. Yeah, if I can connect or just add value to people anywhere else across the country, I would say connect with me on any social media platform. And my handles the same on all of them @LarryMFWhite.   Michael: So good. You too will thank you again and I can't wait to see where this ranch takes you both.   Ariana: Yes. Yeah, we'd love to have you out someday.   Larry: Yeah, come on down. Come at come fly into Austin or San Antonio and come out to the ranch. Let us know we'll do some wine tours.   Michael: Do some goat yoga. Careful what you wish for.   Larry: Yeah. Awesome.   Michael: Thank you to take care and enjoy the new year.   Ariana: Oh, thank you so much.   Michael: Alrighty everyone that was our episode a big big big thank you to Larry and Arianna. It was so much fun having them on. We chit chatted after the show after we finished recording here and they are hilarious if you didn't already catch that from the show. Definitely a market worth checking out Houston Galveston both for short and long term rentals. Exciting stuff. As always, if you like the episode, feel free to leave us a rating or review wherever it is you will see your episodes. And as always, we look forward to seeing the next one. Happy investing

Prayer 2021
Study in Prayer - January 18 - The Courts of Praise

Prayer 2021

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2022 6:15


Scripture of the Day:   Psalm 17:6“I call on you, my God, for you will answer me; turn your ear to me and hear my prayer.”The Courts of PraiseThanksgiving and prayer are very important parts of prayer. When you believe you have received the answer to your prayers (which is how you should be praying – not begging as if it has not happened yet), you can't help but begin to Praise God! Amen!  Praise was ordained by God for a purpose. Psalm 8 and Psalm 9 point out some things about praise that you need to understand. Psalm 8:1-2 say, “O Lord our Lord, how excellent is your name in all the earth! Who has set your Glory about the Heavens. Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings, you have ordained strength because of your enemies, that you might still the enemy and the avenger.”   Now, I want you to notice something here. Jesus, in Matthew 21:16, is quoting this scripture. You do understand that HE IS the WORD OF GOD, right? So, His interpretation MUST BE accurate… Can I get an AMEN on that one? I mean, Jesus, when quoting the Word is talking about Himself. So when He says something in the Word or from the Word – I think we can all agree it must be True, right? Because He also said “The Word is Truth.” Anyway, I could continue to farther along that line – but the point I'm trying to make is this… In Matthew 21:16, Jesus, quoting from Psalm 8:1-2, said, “Out of the mouth of babes and sucklings YOU HAVE PERFECTED PRAISE.”  Jesus is equating STRENGTH with PRAISE. From these scripture which we just read, we can see that GOD ORDAINED PRAISE for the purpose of defeating His enemies. Praising God will stop the enemy, the devil and any demon, right in their tracks! It is like having a tank pull into position and the enemies small arms fire just starts bouncing off the hull…then, the Holy Spirit spins that turret around and when you start PRAISING GOD – BAMMM!  That big tank gun goes off and the enemy is defeated…and all his little demon buddies take off running! Praise God!  No really – give God some Praise right now! Amen! Psalm 9:1-4 says, “I will praise you, O Lord, with my whole heart. I will show forth all of your marvelous works. I will be glad and rejoice in YOU. I will sing praise to your name, O you, the Most High God. When my enemies are turned back, they shall fall and perish at your presence. For you have maintained my right and my cause. You sit on your Throne judging right.” Now, notice – this says WHEN your enemies are turned back. Not IF they will be turned back. Folks, these may seem like small things as you read them – but IF YOU BELIEVE exactly what the Word of God says – they make a world of difference. Amen! We are not wrestling with flesh and blood, but against demonic forces. When you Praise God in advance for the victory – you are praying in the Will of God. When you start to enter His Gates with Thanksgiving in your heart – you are entering the Courts of Praise and your victory is guaranteed. Amen! Let's pray right now and give God some Praise for answered prayer. Whatever it is you are going through right now – just start praising Him for the victory… Until next time, this is Pastor Bob Thibodeau reminding you from 1 Thessalonians 5:17 in the Living Bible to “Always Keep on Praying!”  Be blessed in all that you do! Please subscribe to this podcast, leave us a quick 5 star review on Apple Podcasts to help us grow and be sure to visit our website for more information on our ministry: https://podcastersforchrist.com/ (https://podcastersforchrist.com). And while you are at the website, download the free resource I have for you… it is free and is called, Podcasting for Christians. It will bless you – go and download it today. You can also WATCH these session on our Facebook Playlist at this link: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLtKWeKtmv-BwgkquBTsSh-GznbmuUp_R2...

Screaming in the Cloud
The re:Invent Wheel in the Sky Keeps on Turning with Pete Cheslock

Screaming in the Cloud

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2022 54:52


About PetePete does many startup things at Allma. Links: Last Tweet in AWS: https://lasttweetinaws.com Twitter: https://twitter.com/petecheslock LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/petecheslock/ TranscriptAnnouncer: Hello, and welcome to Screaming in the Cloud with your host, Chief Cloud Economist at The Duckbill Group, Corey Quinn. This weekly show features conversations with people doing interesting work in the world of cloud, thoughtful commentary on the state of the technical world, and ridiculous titles for which Corey refuses to apologize. This is Screaming in the Cloud.Corey: This episode is sponsored in part byLaunchDarkly. Take a look at what it takes to get your code into production. I'm going to just guess that it's awful because it's always awful. No one loves their deployment process. What if launching new features didn't require you to do a full-on code and possibly infrastructure deploy? What if you could test on a small subset of users and then roll it back immediately if results aren't what you expect? LaunchDarkly does exactly this. To learn more, visitlaunchdarkly.com and tell them Corey sent you, and watch for the wince.Corey: This episode is sponsored in part by our friends at Redis, the company behind the incredibly popular open source database that is not the bind DNS server. If you're tired of managing open source Redis on your own, or you're using one of the vanilla cloud caching services, these folks have you covered with the go to manage Redis service for global caching and primary database capabilities; Redis Enterprise. To learn more and deploy not only a cache but a single operational data platform for one Redis experience, visit redis.com/hero. Thats r-e-d-i-s.com/hero. And my thanks to my friends at Redis for sponsoring my ridiculous non-sense.  Corey: Welcome to Screaming in the Cloud. I'm Corey Quinn. I am joined—as is tradition, for a post re:Invent wrap up, a month or so later, once everything is time to settle—by my friend and yours, Pete Cheslock. Pete, how are you?Pete: Hi, I'm doing fantastic. New year; new me. That's what I'm going with.Corey: That's the problem. I keep hoping for that, but every time I turn around, it's still me. And you know, honestly, I wouldn't wish that on anyone.Pete: Exactly. [laugh]. I wouldn't wish you on me either. But somehow I keep coming back for this.Corey: So, in two-thousand twenty—or twenty-twenty, as the children say—re:Invent was fully virtual. And that felt weird. Then re:Invent 2021 was a hybrid event which, let's be serious here, is not really those things. They had a crappy online thing and then a differently crappy thing in person. But it didn't feel real to me because you weren't there.That is part of the re:Invent tradition. There's a midnight madness thing, there's a keynote where they announce a bunch of nonsense, and then Pete and I go and have brunch on the last day of re:Invent and decompress, and more or less talk smack about everything that crosses our minds. And you weren't there this year. I had to backfill you with Tim Banks. You know, the person that I backfield you with here at The Duckbill Group as a principal cloud economist.Pete: You know, you got a great upgrade in hot takes, I feel like, with Tim.Corey: And other ways, too, but it's rude of me to say that to you directly. So yeah, his hot takes are spectacular. He was going to be doing this with me, except you cannot mess with tradition. You really can't.Pete: Yeah. I'm trying to think how many—is this third year? It's at least three.Corey: Third or fourth.Pete: Yeah, it's at least three. Yeah, it was, I don't want to say I was sad to not be there because, with everything going on, it's still weird out there. But I am always—I'm just that weird person who actually likes re:Invent, but not for I feel like the reasons people think. Again, I'm such an extroverted-type person, that it's so great to have this, like, serendipity to re:Invent. The people that you run into and the conversations that you have, and prior—like in 2019, I think was a great example because that was the last one I had gone to—you know, having so many conversations so quickly because everyone is there, right? It's like this magnet that attracts technologists, and venture capital, and product builders, and all this other stuff. And it's all compressed into, like, you know, that five-day span, I think is the biggest part that makes so great.Corey: The fear in people's eyes when they see me. And it was fun; I had a pair of masks with me. One of them was a standard mask, and no one recognizes anyone because, masks, and the other was a printout of my ridiculous face, which was horrifyingly uncanny, but also made it very easy for people to identify me. And depending upon how social I was feeling, I would wear one or the other, and it worked flawlessly. That was worth doing. They really managed to thread the needle, as well, before Omicron hit, but after the horrors of last year. So, [unintelligible 00:03:00]—Pete: It really—Corey: —if it were going on right now, it would not be going on right now.Pete: Yeah. I talk about really—yeah—really just hitting it timing-wise. Like, not that they could have planned for any of this, but like, as things were kind of not too crazy and before they got all crazy again, it feels like wow, like, you know, they really couldn't have done the event at any other time. And it's like, purely due to luck. I mean, absolute one hundred percent.Corey: That's the amazing power of frugality. Because the reason is then is it's the week after Thanksgiving every year when everything is dirt cheap. And, you know, if there's one thing that I one-point-seve—sorry, their stock's in the toilet—a $1.6 trillion company is very concerned about, it is saving money at every opportunity.Pete: Well, the one thing that was most curious about—so I was at the first re:Invent in-what—2012 I think it was, and there was—it was quaint, right?—there was 4000 people there, I want to say. It was in the thousands of people. Now granted, still a big conference, but it was in the Sands Convention Center. It was in that giant room, the same number of people, were you know, people's booths were like tables, like, eight-by-ten tables, right? [laugh].It had almost a DevOpsDays feel to it. And I was kind of curious if this one had any of those feelings. Like, did it evoke it being more quaint and personable, or was it just as soulless as it probably has been in recent years?Corey: This was fairly soulless because they reduced the footprint of the event. They dropped from two expo halls down to one, they cut the number of venues, but they still had what felt like 20,000 people or something there. It was still crowded, it was still packed. And I've done some diligent follow-ups afterwards, and there have been very few cases of Covid that came out of it. I quarantined for a week in a hotel, so I don't come back and kill my young kids for the wrong reasons.And that went—that was sort of like the worst part of it on some level, where it's like great. Now I could sit alone at a hotel and do some catch-up and all the rest, but all right I'd kind of like to go home. I'm not used to being on the road that much.Pete: Yeah, I think we're all a little bit out of practice. You know, I haven't been on a plane in years. I mean, the travel I've done more recently has been in my car from point A to point B. Like, direct, you know, thing. Actually, a good friend of mine who's not in technology at all had to travel for business, and, you know, he also has young kids who are under five, so he when he got back, he actually hid in a room in their house and quarantine himself in the room. But they—I thought, this is kind of funny—they never told the kids he was home. Because they knew that like—Corey: So, they just thought the house was haunted?Pete: [laugh].Corey: Like, “Don't go in the west wing,” sort of level of nonsense. That is kind of amazing.Pete: Honestly, like, we were hanging out with the family because they're our neighbors. And it was like, “Oh, yeah, like, he's in the guest room right now.” Kids have no idea. [laugh]. I'm like, “Oh, my God.” I'm like, I can't even imagine. Yeah.Corey: So, let's talk a little bit about the releases of re:Invent. And I'm going to lead up with something that may seem uncharitable, but I don't think it necessarily is. There weren't the usual torrent of new releases for ridiculous nonsense in the same way that there have been previously. There was no, this service talks to satellites in space. I mean, sure, there was some IoT stuff to manage fleets of cars, and giant piles of robots, and cool, I don't have those particular problems; I'm trying to run a website over here.So okay, great. There were enhancements to a number of different services that were in many cases appreciated, in other cases, irrelevant. Werner said in his keynote, that it was about focusing on primitives this year. And, “Why do we have so many services? It's because you asked for it… as customers.”Pete: [laugh]. Yeah, you asked for it.Corey: What have you been asking for, Pete? Because I know what I've been asking for and it wasn't that. [laugh].Pete: It's amazing to see a company continually say yes to everything, and somehow, despite their best efforts, be successful at doing it. No other company could do that. Imagine any other software technology business out there that just builds everything the customers ask for. Like from a product management business standpoint, that is, like, rule 101 is, “Listen to your customers, but don't say yes to everything.” Like, you can't do everything.Corey: Most companies can't navigate the transition between offering the same software in the Cloud and on a customer facility. So, it's like, “Ooh, an on-prem version, I don't know, that almost broke the company the last time we tried it.” Whereas you have Amazon whose product strategy is, “Yes,” being able to put together a whole bunch of things. I also will challenge the assertion that it's the primitives that customers want. They don't want to build a data center out of popsicle sticks themselves. They want to get something that solves a problem.And this has been a long-term realization for me. I used to work at Media Temple as a senior systems engineer running WordPress at extremely large scale. My websites now run on WordPress, and I have the good sense to pay WP Engine to handle it for me, instead of doing it myself because it's not the most productive use of my time. I want things higher up the stack. I assure you I pay more to WP Engine than it would cost me to run these things myself from an infrastructure point of view, but not in terms of my time.What I see sometimes as the worst of all worlds is that AWS is trying to charge for that value-added pricing without adding the value that goes along with it because you still got to build a lot of this stuff yourself. It's still a very janky experience, you're reduced to googling random blog posts to figure out how this thing is supposed to work, and the best documentation comes from externally. Whereas with a company that's built around offering solutions like this, great. In the fullness of time, I really suspect that if this doesn't change, their customers are going to just be those people who build solutions out of these things. And let those companies capture the up-the-stack margin. Which I have no problem with. But they do because Amazon is a company that lies awake at night actively worrying that someone, somewhere, who isn't them might possibly be making money somehow.Pete: I think MongoDB is a perfect example of—like, look at their stock price over the last whatever, years. Like, they, I feel like everyone called for the death of MongoDB every time Amazon came out with their new things, yet, they're still a multi-billion dollar company because I can just—give me an API endpoint and you scale the database. There's is—Corey: Look at all the high-profile hires that Mongo was making out of AWS, and I can't shake the feeling they're sitting there going, “Yeah, who's losing important things out of production now?” It's, everyone is exodus-ing there. I did one of those ridiculous graphics of the naming all the people that went over there, and in—with the hurricane evacuation traffic picture, and there's one car going the other way that I just labeled with, “Re:Invent sponsorship check,” because yeah, they have a top tier sponsorship and it was great. I've got to say I've been pretty down on MongoDB for a while, for a variety of excellent reasons based upon, more or less, how they treated customers who were in pain. And I'd mostly written it off.I don't do that anymore. Not because I inherently believe the technology has changed, though I'm told it has, but by the number of people who I deeply respect who are going over there and telling me, no, no, this is good. Congratulations. I have often said you cannot buy authenticity, and I don't think that they are, but the people who are working there, I do not believe that these people are, “Yeah, well, you bought my opinion. You can buy their attention, not their opinion.” If someone changes their opinion, based upon where they work, I kind of question everything they're telling me is, like, “Oh, you're just here to sell something you don't believe in? Welcome aboard.”Pete: Right. Yeah, there's an interview question I like to ask, which is, “What's something that you used to believe in very strongly that you've more recently changed your mind on?” And out of politeness because usually throws people back a little bit, and they're like, “Oh, wow. Like, let me think about that.” And I'm like, “Okay, while you think about that I want to give you mine.”Which is in the past, my strongly held belief was we had to run everything ourselves. “You own your availability,” was the line. “No, I'm not buying Datadog. I can build my own metric stack just fine, thank you very much.” Like, “No, I'm not going to use these outsourced load balancers or databases because I need to own my availability.”And what I realized is that all of those decisions lead to actually delivering and focusing on things that were not the core product. And so now, like, I've really flipped 180, that, if any—anything that you're building that does not directly relate to the core product, i.e. How your business makes money, should one hundred percent be outsourced to an expert that is better than you. Mongo knows how to run Mongo better than you.Corey: “What does your company do?” “Oh, we handle expense reports.” “Oh, what are you working on this month?” “I'm building a load balancer.” It's like that doesn't add the value. Don't do that.Pete: Right. Exactly. And so it's so interesting, I think, to hear Werner say that, you know, we're just building primitives, and you asked for this. And I think that concept maybe would work years ago, when you had a lot of builders who needed tools, but I don't think we have any, like, we don't have as many builders as before. Like, I think we have people who need more complete solutions. And that's probably why all these businesses are being super successful against Amazon.Corey: I'm wondering if it comes down to a cloud economic story, specifically that my cloud bill is always going to be variable and it's difficult to predict, whereas if I just use EC2 instances, and I build load balancers or whatnot, myself, well, yeah, it's a lot more work, but I can predict accurately what my staff compensation costs are more effectively, that I can predict what a CapEx charge would be or what the AWS bill is going to be. I'm wondering if that might in some way shape it?Pete: Well, I feel like the how people get better in managing their costs, right, you'll eventually move to a world where, like, “Yep, okay, first, we turned off waste,” right? Like, step one is waste. Step two is, like, understanding your spend better to optimize but, like, step three, like, the galaxy brain meme of Amazon cost stuff is all, like, unit economics stuff, where trying to better understand the actual cost deliver an actual feature. And yeah, I think that actually gets really hard when you give—kind of spread your product across, like, a slew of services that have varying levels of costs, varying levels of tagging, so you can attribute it. Like, it's really hard. Honestly, it's pretty easy if I have 1000 EC2 servers with very specific tags, I can very easily figure out what it costs to deliver product. But if I have—Corey: Yeah, if I have Corey build it, I know what Corey is going to cost, and I know how many servers he's going to use. Great, if I have Pete it, Pete's good at things, it'll cut that server bill in half because he actually knows how to wind up being efficient with things. Okay, great. You can start calculating things out that way. I don't think that's an intentional choice that companies are making, but I feel like that might be a natural outgrowth of it.Pete: Yeah. And there's still I think a lot of the, like, old school mentality of, like, the, “Not invented here,” the, “We have to own our availability.” You can still own your availability by using these other vendors. And honestly, it's really heartening to see so many companies realize that and realize that I don't need to get everything from Amazon. And honestly, like, in some things, like I look at a cloud Amazon bill, and I think to myself, it would be easier if you just did everything from Amazon versus having these ten other vendors, but those ten other vendors are going to be a lot better at running the product that they build, right, that as a service, then you probably will be running it yourself. Or even Amazon's, like, you know, interpretation of that product.Corey: A few other things that came out that I thought were interesting, at least the direction they're going in. The changes to S3 intelligent tiering are great, with instant retrieval on Glacier. I feel like that honestly was—they talk a good story, but I feel like that was competitive response to Google offering the same thing. That smacks of a large company with its use case saying, “You got two choices here.” And they're like, “Well, okay. Crap. We're going to build it then.”Or alternately, they're looking at the changes that they're making to intelligent tiering, they're now shifting that to being the default that as far as recommendations go. There are a couple of drawbacks to it, but not many, and it's getting easier now to not have the mental overhead of trying to figure out exactly what your lifecycle policies are. Yeah, there are some corner cases where, okay, if I adjust this just so, then I could save 10% on that monitoring fee or whatnot. Yeah, but look how much work that's going to take you to curate and make sure that you're not doing something silly. That feels like it is such an in the margins issue. It's like, “How much data you're storing?” “Four exabytes.” Okay, yeah. You probably want some people doing exactly that, but that's not most of us.Pete: Right. Well, there's absolutely savings to be had. Like, if I had an exabyte of data on S3—which there are a lot of people who have that level of data—then it would make sense for me to have an engineering team whose sole purpose is purely an optimizing our data lifecycle for that data. Until a point, right? Until you've optimized the 80%, basically. You optimize the first 80, that's probably, air-quote, “Easy.” The last 20 is going to be incredibly hard, maybe you never even do that.But at lower levels of scale, I don't think the economics actually work out to have a team managing your data lifecycle of S3. But the fact that now AWS can largely do it for you in the background—now, there's so many things you have to think about and, like, you know, understand even what your data is there because, like, not all data is the same. And since S3 is basically like a big giant database you can query, you got to really think about some of that stuff. But honestly, what I—I don't know if—I have no idea if this is even be worked on, but what I would love to see—you know, hashtag #AWSwishlist—is, now we have countless tiers of EBS volumes, EBS volumes that can be dynamically modified without touching, you know, the physical host. Meaning with an API call, you can change from the gp2 to gp3, or io whatever, right?Corey: Or back again if it doesn't pan out.Pete: Or back again, right? And so for companies with large amounts of spend, you know, economics makes sense that you should have a team that is analyzing your volumes usage and modifying that daily, right? Like, you could modify that daily, and I don't know if there's anyone out there that's actually doing it at that level. And they probably should. Like, if you got millions of dollars in EBS, like, there's legit savings that you're probably leaving on the table without doing that. But that's what I'm waiting for Amazon to do for me, right? I want intelligent tiering for EBS because if you're telling me I can API call and you'll move my data and make that better, make that [crosstalk 00:17:46] better [crosstalk 00:17:47]—Corey: Yeah it could be like their auto-scaling for DynamoDB, for example. Gives you the capacity you need 20 minutes after you needed it. But fine, whatever because if I can schedule stuff like that, great, I know what time of day, the runs are going to kick off that beat up the disks. I know when end-of-month reporting fires off. I know what my usage pattern is going to be, by and large.Yeah, part of the problem too, is that I look at this stuff, and I get excited about it with the intelligent tiering… at The Duckbill Group we've got a few hundred S3 buckets lurking around. I'm thinking, “All right, I've got to go through and do some changes on this and implement all of that.” Our S3 bill's something like 50 bucks a month or something ridiculous like that. It's a no, that really isn't a thing. Like, I have a screenshot bucket that I have an app installed—I think called Dropshare—that hooks up to anytime I drag—I hit a shortcut, I drag with the mouse to select whatever I want and boom, it's up there and the URL is not copied to my clipboard, I can paste that wherever I want.And I'm thinking like, yeah, there's no cleanup on that. There's no lifecycle policy that's turning into anything. I should really go back and age some of it out and do the rest and start doing some lifecycle management. It—I've been using this thing for years and I think it's now a whopping, what, 20 cents a month for that bucket. It's—I just don't—Pete: [laugh].Corey: —I just don't care, other than voice in the back of my mind, “That's an unbounded growth problem.” Cool. When it hits 20 bucks a month, then I'll consider it. But until then I just don't. It does not matter.Pete: Yeah, I think yeah, scale changes everything. Start adding some zeros and percentages turned into meaningful numbers. And honestly, back on the EBS thing, the one thing that really changed my perspective of EBS, in general, is—especially coming from the early days, right? One terabyte volume, it was a hard drive in a thing. It was a virtual LUN on a SAN somewhere, probably.Nowadays, and even, like, many years after those original EBS volumes, like all the limits you get in EBS, those are actually artificial limits, right? If you're like, “My EBS volume is too slow,” it's not because, like, the hard drive it's on is too slow. That's an artificial limit that is likely put in place due to your volume choice. And so, like, once you realize that in your head, then your concept of how you store data on EBS should change dramatically.Corey: Oh, AWS had a blog post recently talking about, like, with io2 and the limits and everything, and there was architecture thinking, okay. “So, let's say this is insufficient and the quarter-million IOPS a second that you're able to get is not there.” And I'm sitting there thinking, “That is just ludicrous data volume and data interactivity model.” And it's one of those, like, I'm sitting here trying to think about, like, I haven't had to deal with a problem like that decade, just because it's, “Huh. Turns out getting these one thing that's super fast is kind of expensive.” If you paralyze it out, that's usually the right answer, and that's how the internet is mostly evolved. But there are use cases for which that doesn't work, and I'm excited to see it. I don't want to pay for it in my view, but it's nice to see it.Pete: Yeah, it's kind of fun to go into the Amazon calculator and price out one of the, like, io2 volumes and, like, maxed out. It's like, I don't know, like $50,000 a month or a hun—like, it's some just absolutely absurd number. But the beauty of it is that if you needed that value for an hour to run some intensive data processing task, you can have it for an hour and then just kill it when you're done, right? Like, that is what is most impressive.Corey: I copied 130 gigs of data to an EFS volume, which was—[unintelligible 00:21:05] EFS has gone from “This is a piece of junk,” to one of my favorite services. It really is, just because of its utility and different ways of doing things. I didn't have the foresight, just use a second EFS volume for this. So, I was unzipping a whole bunch of small files onto it. Great.It took a long time for me to go through it. All right, now that I'm done with that I want to clean all this up. My answer was to ultimately spin up a compute node and wind up running a whole bunch of—like, 400, simultaneous rm-rf on that long thing. And it was just, like, this feels foolish and dumb, but here we are. And I'm looking at the stats on it because the instance was—all right, at that point, the load average [on the instance 00:21:41] was like 200, or something like that, and the EFS volume was like, “Ohh, wow, you're really churning on this. I'm now at, like, 5% of the limit.” Like, okay, great. It turns out I'm really bad at computers.Pete: Yeah, well, that's really the trick is, like, yeah, sure, you can have a quarter-million IOPS per second, but, like, what's going to break before you even hit that limit? Probably many other things.Corey: Oh, yeah. Like, feels like on some level if something gets to that point, it a misconfiguration somewhere. But honestly, that's the thing I find weirdest about the world in which we live is that at a small-scale—if I have a bill in my $5 a month shitposting account, great. If I screw something up and cost myself a couple hundred bucks in misconfiguration it's going to stand out. At large scale, it doesn't matter if—you're spending $50 million a year or $500 million a year on AWS and someone leaks your creds, and someone spins up a whole bunch of Bitcoin miners somewhere else, you're going to see that on your bill until they're mining basically all the Bitcoin. It just gets lost in the background.Pete: I'm waiting for those—I'm actually waiting for the next level of them to get smarter because maybe you have, like, an aggressive tagging system and you're monitoring for untagged instances, but the move here would be, first get the creds and query for, like, the most used tags and start applying those tags to your Bitcoin mining instances. My God, it'll take—Corey: Just clone a bunch of tags. Congratulations, you now have a second BI Elasticsearch cluster that you're running yourself. Good work.Pete: Yeah. Yeah, that people won't find that until someone comes along after the fact that. Like, “Why do we have two have these things?” And you're like—[laugh].Corey: “Must be a DR thing.”Pete: It's maxed-out CPU. Yeah, exactly.Corey: [laugh].Pete: Oh, the terrible ideas—please, please, hackers don't take are terrible ideas.Corey: I had a, kind of, whole thing I did on Twitter years ago, talking about how I would wind up using the AWS Marketplace for an embezzlement scheme. Namely, I would just wind up spinning up something that had, like, a five-cent an hour charge or whatnot on just, like, basically rebadge the CentOS Community AMI or whatnot. Great. And then write a blog post, not attached to me, that explains how to do a thing that I'm going to be doing in production in a week or two anyway. Like, “How to build an auto-scaling group,” and reference that AMI.Then if it ever comes out, like, “Wow, why are we having all these marketplace charges on this?” “I just followed the blog post like it said here.” And it's like, “Oh, okay. You're a dumbass. The end.”That's the way to do it. A month goes by and suddenly it came out that someone had done something similarly. They wound up rebadging these community things on the marketplace and charging big money for it, and I'm sitting there going like that was a joke. It wasn't a how-to. But yeah, every time I make these jokes, I worry someone's going to do it.Pete: “Welcome to large-scale fraud with Corey Quinn.”Corey: Oh, yeah, it's fraud at scale is really the important thing here.Corey: This episode is sponsored by our friends at Oracle HeatWave is a new high-performance accelerator for the Oracle MySQL Database Service. Although I insist on calling it “my squirrel.” While MySQL has long been the worlds most popular open source database, shifting from transacting to analytics required way too much overhead and, ya know, work. With HeatWave you can run your OLTP and OLAP, don't ask me to ever say those acronyms again, workloads directly from your MySQL database and eliminate the time consuming data movement and integration work, while also performing 1100X faster than Amazon Aurora, and 2.5X faster than Amazon Redshift, at a third of the cost. My thanks again to Oracle Cloud for sponsoring this ridiculous nonsense.Corey: I still remember a year ago now at re:Invent 2021 was it, or was it 2020? Whatever they came out with, I want to say it wasn't gp3, or maybe it was, regardless, there was a new EBS volume type that came out that you were playing with to see how it worked and you experimented with it—Pete: Oh, yes.Corey: —and the next morning, you looked at the—I checked Slack and you're like well, my experiments yesterday cost us $5,000. And at first, like, the—my response is instructive on this because, first, it was, “Oh, my God. What's going to happen now?” And it's like, first, hang on a second.First off, that seems suspect but assume it's real. I assumed it was real at the outset. It's “Oh, right. This is not my personal $5-a-month toybox account. We are a company; we can absolutely pay that.” Because it's like, I could absolutely reach out, call it a favor. “I made a mistake, and I need a favor on the bill, please,” to AWS.And I would never live it down, let's be clear. For a $7,000 mistake, I would almost certainly eat it. As opposed to having to prostrate myself like that in front of Amazon. I'm like, no, no, no. I want one of those like—if it's like, “Okay, you're going to, like, set back the company roadmap by six months if you have to pay this. Do you want to do it?” Like, [groans] “Fine, I'll eat some crow.”But okay. And then followed immediately by, wow, if Pete of all people can mess this up, customers are going to be doomed here. We should figure out what happened. And I'm doing the math. Like, Pete, “What did you actually do?” And you're sitting there and you're saying, “Well, I had like a 20 gig volume that I did this.” And I'm doing the numbers, and it's like—Pete: Something's wrong.Corey: “How sure are you when you say ‘gigabyte,' that you were—that actually means what you think it did? Like, were you off by a lot? Like, did you mean exabytes?” Like, what's the deal here?Pete: Like, multiple factors.Corey: Yeah. How much—“How many IOPS did you give that thing, buddy?” And it turned out what happened was that when they launched this, they had mispriced it in the system by a factor of a million. So, it was fun. I think by the end of it, all of your experimentation was somewhere between five to seven cents. Which—Pete: Yeah. It was a—Corey: Which is why you don't work here anymore because no one cost me seven cents of money to give to Amazon—Pete: How dare you?Corey: —on my watch. Get out.Pete: How dare you, sir?Corey: Exactly.Pete: Yeah, that [laugh] was amazing to see, as someone who has done—definitely maid screw-ups that have cost real money—you know, S3 list requests are always a fun one at scale—but that one was supremely fun to see the—Corey: That was a scary one because another one they'd done previously was they had messed up Lightsail pricing, where people would log in, and, like, “Okay, so what is my Lightsail instance going to cost?” And I swear to you, this is true, it was saying—this was back in 2017 or so—the answer was, like, “$4.3 billion.” Because when you see that you just start laughing because you know it's a mistake. You know, that they're not going to actually demand that you spend $4.3 billion for a single instance—unless it's running SAP—and great.It's just, it's a laugh. It's clearly a mispriced, and it's clearly a bug that's going to get—it's going to get fixed. I just spun up this new EBS volume that no one fully understands yet and it cost me thousands of dollars. That's the sort of thing that no, no, I could actually see that happening. There are instances now that cost something like 100 bucks an hour or whatnot to run. I can see spinning up the wrong thing by mistake and getting bitten by it. There's a bunch of fun configuration mistakes you can make that will, “Hee, hee, hee. Why can I see that bill spike from orbit?” And that's the scary thing.Pete: Well, it's the original CI and CD problem of the per-hour billing, right? That was super common of, like, yeah, like, an i3, you know, 16XL server is pretty cheap per hour, but if you're charged per hour and you spin up a bunch for five minutes. Like, it—you will be shocked [laugh] by what you see there. So—Corey: Yeah. Mistakes will show. And I get it. It's also people as individuals are very different psychologically than companies are. With companies it's one of those, “Great we're optimizing to bring in more revenue and we don't really care about saving money at all costs.”Whereas people generally have something that looks a lot like a fixed income in the form of a salary or whatnot, so it's it is easier for us to cut spend than it is for us to go out and make more money. Like, I don't want to get a second job, or pitch my boss on stuff, and yeah. So, all and all, routing out the rest of what happened at re:Invent, they—this is the problem is that they have a bunch of minor things like SageMaker Inference Recommender. Yeah, I don't care. Anything—Pete: [laugh].Corey: —[crosstalk 00:28:47] SageMaker I mostly tend to ignore, for safety. I did like the way they described Amplify Studio because they made it sound like a WYSIWYG drag and drop, build a React app. It's not it. It basically—you can do that in Figma and then it can hook it up to some things in some cases. It's not what I want it to be, which is Honeycode, except good. But we'll get there some year. Maybe.Pete: There's a lot of stuff that was—you know, it's the classic, like, preview, which sure, like, from a product standpoint, it's great. You know, they have a level of scale where they can say, “Here's this thing we're building,” which could be just a twinkle in a product managers, call it preview, and get thousands of people who would be happy to test it out and give you feedback, and it's a, it's great that you have that capability. But I often look at so much stuff and, like, that's really cool, but, like, can I, can I have it now? Right? Like—or you can't even get into the preview plan, even though, like, you have that specific problem. And it's largely just because either, like, your scale isn't big enough, or you don't have a good enough relationship with your account manager, or I don't know, countless other reasons.Corey: The thing that really throws me, too, is the pre-announcements that come a year or so in advance, like, the Outpost smaller ones are finally available, but it feels like when they do too many pre-announcements or no big marquee service announcements, as much as they talk about, “We're getting back to fundamentals,” no, you have a bunch of teams that blew the deadline. That's really what it is; let's not call it anything else. Another one that I think is causing trouble for folks—I'm fortunate in that I don't do much work with Oracle databases, or Microsoft SQL databases—but they extended RDS Custom to Microsoft SQL at the [unintelligible 00:30:27] SQL server at re:Invent this year, which means this comes down to things I actually use, we're going to have a problem because historically, the lesson has always been if I want to run my own databases and tweak everything, I do it on top of an EC2 instance. If I want to managed database, relational database service, great, I use RDS. RDS Custom basically gives you root into the RDS instance. Which means among other things, yes, you can now use RDS to run containers.But it lets you do a lot of things that are right in between. So, how do you position this? When should I use RDS Custom? Can you give me an easy answer to that question? And they used a lot of words to say, no, they cannot. It's basically completely blowing apart the messaging and positioning of both of those services in some unfortunate ways. We'll learn as we go.Pete: Yeah. Honestly, it's like why, like, why would I use this? Or how would I use this? And this is I think, fundamentally, what's hard when you just say yes to everything. It's like, they in many cases, I don't think, like, I don't want to say they don't understand why they're doing this, but if it's not like there's a visionary who's like, this fits into this multi-year roadmap.That roadmap is largely—if that roadmap is largely generated by the customers asking for it, then it's not like, oh, we're building towards this Northstar of RDS being whatever. You might say that, but your roadmap's probably getting moved all over the place because, you know, this company that pays you a billion dollars a year is saying, “I would give you $2 billion a year for all of my Oracle databases, but I need this specific thing.” I can't imagine a scenario that they would say, “Oh, well, we're building towards this Northstar, and that's not on the way there.” Right? They'd be like, “New Northstar. Another billion dollars, please.”Corey: Yep. Probably the worst release of re:Invent, from my perspective, is RUM, Real User Monitoring, for CloudWatch. And I, to be clear, I wrote a shitposting Twitter threading client called Last Tweet in AWS. Go to lasttweetinaws.com. You can all use it. It's free; I just built this for my own purposes. And I've instrumented it with RUM. Now, Real User Monitoring is something that a lot of monitoring vendors use, and also CloudWatch now. And what that is, is it embeds a listener into the JavaScript that runs on client load, and it winds up looking at what's going on loading times, et cetera, so you can see when users are unhappy. I have no problem with this. Other than that, you know, liking users? What's up with that?Pete: Crazy.Corey: But then, okay, now, what this does is unlike every other RUM tool out there, which charges per session, meaning I am going to be… doing a web page load, it charges per data item, which includes HTTP errors, or JavaScript errors, et cetera. Which means that if you have a high transaction volume site and suddenly your CDN takes a nap like Fastly did for an hour last year, suddenly your bill is stratospheric for this because errors abound and cascade, and you can have thousands of errors on a single page load for these things, and it is going to be visible from orbit, at least with a per session basis thing, when you start to go viral, you understand that, “Okay, this is probably going to cost me some more on these things, and oops, I guess I should write less compelling content.” Fine. This is one of those one misconfiguration away and you are wailing and gnashing teeth. Now, this is a new service. I believe that they will waive these surprise bills in the event that things like that happen. But it's going to take a while and you're going to be worrying the whole time if you've rolled this out naively. So it's—Pete: Well and—Corey: —I just don't like the pricing.Pete: —how many people will actively avoid that service, right? And honestly, choose a competitor because the competitor could be—the competitor could be five times more expensive, right, on face value, but it's the certainty of it. It's the uncertainty of what Amazon will charge you. Like, no one wants a surprise bill. “Well, a vendor is saying that they'll give us this contract for $10,000. I'm going to pay $10,000, even though RUM might be a fraction of that price.”It's honestly, a lot of these, like, product analytics tools and monitoring tools, you'll often see they price be a, like, you know, MAU, Monthly Active User, you know, or some sort of user-based pricing, like, the number of people coming to your site. You know, and I feel like at least then, if you are trying to optimize for lots of users on your site, and more users means more revenue, then you know, if your spend is going up, but your revenue is also going up, that's a win-win. But if it's like someone—you know, your third-party vendor dies and you're spewing out errors, or someone, you know, upgraded something and it spews out errors. That no one would normally see; that's the thing. Like, unless you're popping open that JavaScript console, you're not seeing any of those errors, yet somehow it's like directly impacting your bottom line? Like that doesn't feel [crosstalk 00:35:06].Corey: Well, there is something vaguely Machiavellian about that. Like, “How do I get my developers to care about errors on consoles?” Like, how about we make it extortionately expensive for them not to. It's, “Oh, all right, then. Here we go.”Pete: And then talk about now you're in a scenario where you're working on things that don't directly impact the product. You're basically just sweeping up the floor and then trying to remove errors that maybe don't actually affect it and they're not actually an error.Corey: Yeah. I really do wonder what the right answer is going to be. We'll find out. Again, we live, we learn. But it's also, how long does it take a service that has bad pricing at launch, or an unfortunate story around it to outrun that reputation?People are still scared of Glacier because of its original restore pricing, which was non-deterministic for any sensible human being, and in some cases lead to I'm used to spending 20 to 30 bucks a month on this. Why was I just charged two grand?Pete: Right.Corey: Scare people like that, they don't come back.Pete: I'm trying to actually remember which service it is that basically gave you an estimate, right? Like, turn it on for a month, and it would give you an estimate of how much this was going to cost you when billing started.Corey: It was either Detective or GuardDuty.Pete: Yeah, it was—yeah, that's exactly right. It was one of those two. And honestly, that was unbelievably refreshing to see. You know, like, listen, you have the data, Amazon. You know what this is going to cost me, so when I, like, don't make me spend all this time to go and figure out the cost. If you have all this data already, just tell me, right?And if I look at it and go, “Yeah, wow. Like, turning this on in my environment is going to cost me X dollars. Like, yeah, that's a trade-off I want to make, I'll spend that.” But you know, with some of the—and that—a little bit of a worry on some of the intelligent tiering on S3 is that the recommendation is likely going to be everything goes to intelligent tiering first, right? It's the gp3 story. Put everything on gp3, then move it to the proper volume, move it to an sc or an st or an io. Like, gp3 is where you start. And I wonder if that's going to be [crosstalk 00:37:08].Corey: Except I went through a wizard yesterday to launch an EC2 instance and its default on the free tier gp2.Pete: Yeah. Interesting.Corey: Which does not thrill me. I also still don't understand for the life of me why in some regions, the free tier is a t2 instance, when t3 is available.Pete: They're uh… my guess is that they've got some free t—they got a bunch of t2s lying around. [laugh].Corey: Well, one of the most notable announcements at re:Invent that most people didn't pay attention to is their ability now to run legacy instance types on top of Nitro, which really speaks to what's going on behind the scenes of we can get rid of all that old hardware and emulate the old m1 on modern equipment. So, because—you can still have that legacy, ancient instance, but now you're going—now we're able to wind up greening our data centers, which is part of their big sustainability push, with their ‘Sustainability Pillar' for the well-architected framework. They're talking more about what the green choices in cloud are. Which is super handy, not just because of the economic impact because we could use this pretty directly to reverse engineer their various margins on a per-service or per-offering basis. Which I'm not sure they're aware of yet, but oh, they're going to be.And that really winds up being a win for the planet, obviously, but also something that is—that I guess puts a little bit of choice on customers. The challenge I've got is, with my serverless stuff that I build out, if I spend—the Google search I make to figure out what the most economic, most sustainable way to do that is, is going to have a bigger carbon impact on the app itself. That seems to be something that is important at scale, but if you're not at scale, it's one of those, don't worry about it. Because let's face it, the cloud providers—all of them—are going to have a better sustainability story than you are running this in your own data centers, or on a Raspberry Pi that's always plugged into the wall.Pete: Yeah, I mean, you got to remember, Amazon builds their own power plants to power their data centers. Like, that's the level they play, right? There, their economies of scale are so entirely—they're so entirely different than anything that you could possibly even imagine. So, it's something that, like, I'm sure people will want to choose for. But, you know, if I would honestly say, like, if we really cared about our computing costs and the carbon footprint of it, I would love to actually know the carbon footprint of all of the JavaScript trackers that when I go to various news sites, and it loads, you know, the whatever thousands of trackers and tracking the all over, like, what is the carbon impact of some of those choices that I actually could control, like, as a either a consumer or business person?Corey: I really hope that it turns into something that makes a meaningful difference, and it's not just greenwashing. But we'll see. In the fullness of time, we're going to figure that out. Oh, they're also launching some mainframe stuff. They—like that's great.Pete: Yeah, those are still a thing.Corey: I don't deal with a lot of customers that are doing things with that in any meaningful sense. There is no AWS/400, so all right.Pete: [laugh]. Yeah, I think honestly, like, I did talk to a friend of mine who's in a big old enterprise and has a mainframe, and they're actually replacing their mainframe with Lambda. Like they're peeling off—which is, like, a great move—taking the monolith, right, and peeling off the individual components of what it can do into these discrete Lambda functions. Which I thought was really fascinating. Again, it's a five-year-long journey to do something like that. And not everyone wants to wait five years, especially if their support's about to run out for that giant box in the, you know, giant warehouse.Corey: The thing that I also noticed—and this is probably the—I guess, one of the—talk about swing and a miss on pricing—they have a—what is it?—there's a VPC IP Address Manager, which tracks the the IP addresses assigned to your VPCs that are allocated versus not, and it's 20 cents a month per IP address. It's like, “Okay. So, you're competing against a Google Sheet or an Excel spreadsheet”—which is what people are using for these things now—“Only you're making it extortionately expensive?”Pete: What kind of value does that provide for 20—I mean, like, again—Corey: I think Infoblox or someone like that offers it where they become more cost-effective as soon as you hit 500 IP addresses. And it's just—like, this is what I'm talking about. I know it does not cost AWS that kind of money to store an IP address. You can store that in a Route 53 TXT record for less money, for God's sake. And that's one of those, like, “Ah, we could extract some value pricing here.”Like, I don't know if it's a good product or not. Given its pricing, I don't give a shit because it's going to be too expensive for anything beyond trivial usage. So, it's a swing and a miss from that perspective. It's just, looking at that, I laugh, and I don't look at it again.Pete: See I feel—Corey: I'm not usually price sensitive. I want to be clear on that. It's just, that is just Looney Tunes, clown shoes pricing.Pete: Yeah. It's honestly, like, in many cases, I think the thing that I have seen, you know, in the past few years is, in many cases, it can honestly feel like Amazon is nickel-and-diming their customers in so many ways. You know, the explosion of making it easy to create multiple Amazon accounts has a direct impact to waste in the cloud because there's a lot of stuff you have to have her account. And the more accounts you have, those costs grow exponentially as you have these different places. Like, you kind of lose out on the economies of scale when you have a smaller number of accounts.And yeah, it's hard to optimize for that. Like, if you're trying to reduce your spend, it's challenging to say, “Well, by making a change here, we'll save, you know, $10,000 in this account.” “That doesn't seem like a lot when we're spending millions.” “Well, hold on a second. You'll save $10,000 per account, and you have 500 accounts,” or, “You have 1000 accounts,” or something like that.Or almost cost avoidance of this cost is growing unbounded in all of your accounts. It's tiny right now. So, like, now would be the time you want to do something with it. But like, again, for a lot of companies that have adopted the practice of endless Amazon accounts, they've almost gone, like, it's the classic, like, you know, I've got 8000 GitHub repositories for my source code. Like, that feels just as bad as having one GitHub repository for your repo. I don't know what the balance is there, but anytime these different types of services come out, it feels like, “Oh, wow. Like, I'm going to get nickeled and dimed for it.”Corey: This ties into the re:Post launch, which is a rebranding of their forums, where, okay, great, it was a little crufty and it need modernize, but it still ties your identity to an IAM account, or the root email address for an Amazon account, which is great. This is completely worthless because as soon as I change jobs, I lose my identity, my history, the rest, on this forum. I'm not using it. It shows that there's a lack of awareness that everyone is going to have multiple accounts with which they interact, and that people are going to deal with the platform longer than any individual account will. It's just a continual swing and a miss on things like that.And it gets back to the billing question of, “Okay. When I spin up an account, do I want them to just continue billing me—because don't turn this off; this is important—or do I want there to be a hard boundary where if you're about to charge me, turn it off. Turn off the thing that's about to cost me money.” And people hem and haw like this is an insurmountable problem, but I think the way to solve it is, let me specify that intent when I provision the account. Where it's, “This is a production account for a bank. I really don't want you turning it off.” Versus, “I'm a student learner who thinks that a Managed NAT Gateway might be a good thing. Yeah, I want you to turn off my demo Hello World app that will teach me what's going on, rather than surprising me with a five-figure bill at the end of the month.”Pete: Yeah. It shouldn't be that hard. I mean, but again, I guess everything's hard at scale.Corey: Oh, yeah. Oh yeah.Pete: But still, I feel like every time I log into Cost Explorer and I look at—and this is years it's still not fixed. Not that it's even possible to fix—but on the first day of the month, you look at Cost Explorer, and look at what Amazon is estimating your monthly bill is going to be. It's like because of your, you know—Corey: Your support fees, and your RI purchases, and savings plans purchases.Pete: [laugh]. All those things happened, right? First of the month, and it's like, yeah, “Your bill's going to be $800,000 this year.” And it's like, “Shouldn't be, like, $1,000?” Like, you know, it's the little things like that, that always—Corey: The one-off charges, like, “Oh, your Route 53 zone,” and all the stuff that gets charged on a monthly cadence, which fine, whatever. I mean, I'm okay with it, but it's also the, like, be careful when that happen—I feel like there's a way to make that user experience less jarring.Pete: Yeah because that problem—I mean, in my scenario, companies that I've worked at, there's been multiple times that a non-technical person will look at that data and go into immediate freakout mode, right? And that's never something that you want to have happen because now that's just adding a lot of stress and anxiety into a company that is—with inaccurate data. Like, the data—like, the answer you're giving someone is just wrong. Perhaps you shouldn't even give it to them if it's that wrong. [laugh].Corey: Yeah, I'm looking forward to seeing what happens this coming year. We're already seeing promising stuff. They—give people a timeline on how long in advance these things record—late last night, AWS released a new console experience. When you log into the AWS console now, there's a new beta thing. And I gave it some grief on Twitter because I'm still me, but like the direction it's going. It lets you customize your view with widgets and whatnot.And until they start selling widgets on marketplace or having sponsored widgets, you can't remove I like it, which is no guarantee at some point. But it shows things like, I can move the cost stuff, I can move the outage stuff up around, I can have the things that are going on in my account—but who I am means I can shift this around. If I'm a finance manager, cool. I can remove all the stuff that's like, “Hey, you want to get started spinning up an EC2 instance?” “Absolutely not. Do I want to get told, like, how to get certified? Probably not. Do I want to know what the current bill is and whether—and my list of favorites that I've pinned, whatever services there? Yeah, absolutely do.” This is starting to get there.Pete: Yeah, I wonder if it really is a way to start almost hedging on organizations having a wider group of people accessing AWS. I mean, in previous companies, I absolutely gave access to the console for tools like QuickSight, for tools like Athena, for the DataBrew stuff, the Glue DataBrew. Giving, you know, non-technical people access to be able to do these, like, you know, UI ETL tasks, you know, a wider group of a company is getting access into Amazon. So, I think anything that Amazon does to improve that experience for, you know, the non-SREs, like the people who would traditionally log in, like, that is an investment definitely worth making.Corey: “Well, what could non-engineering types possibly be doing in the AWS console?” “I don't know, jackhole, maybe paying the bill? Just a thought here.” It's the, there are people who look at these things from a variety of different places, and you have such sprawl in the AWS world that there are different personas by a landslide. If I'm building Twitter for Pets, you probably don't want to be pitching your mainframe migration services to me the same way that you would if I were a 200-year-old insurance company.Pete: Yeah, exactly. And the number of those products are going to grow, the number of personas are going to grow, and, yeah, they'll have to do something that they want to actually, you know, maintain that experience so that every person can have, kind of, the experience that they want, and not be distracted, you know? “Oh, what's this? Let me go test this out.” And it's like, you know, one-time charge for $10,000 because, like, that's how it's charged. You know, that's not an experience that people like.Corey: No. They really don't. Pete, I want to thank you for spending the time to chat with me again, as is our tradition. I'm hoping we can do it in person this year, when we go at the end of 2022, to re:Invent again. Or that no one goes in person. But this hybrid nonsense is for the birds.Pete: Yeah. I very much would love to get back to another one, and yeah, like, I think there could be an interesting kind of merging here of our annual re:Invent recap slash live brunch, you know, stream you know, hot takes after a long week. [laugh].Corey: Oh, yeah. The real way that you know that it's a good joke is when one of us says something, the other one sprays scrambled eggs out of their nose. Yeah, that's the way to do it.Pete: Exactly. Exactly.Corey: Pete, thank you so much. If people want to learn more about what you're up to—hopefully, you know, come back. We miss you, but you're unaffiliated, you're a startup advisor. Where can people find you to learn more, if they for some unforgivable reason don't know who or what a Pete Cheslock is?Pete: Yeah. I think the easiest place to find me is always on Twitter. I'm just at @petecheslock. My DMs are always open and I'm always down to expand my network and chat with folks.And yeah, right, now, I'm just, as I jokingly say, professionally unaffiliated. I do some startup advisory work and have been largely just kind of—honestly checking out the state of the economy. Like, there's a lot of really interesting companies out there, and some interesting problems to solve. And, you know, trying to spend some of my time learning more about what companies are up to nowadays. So yeah, if you got some interesting problems, you know, you can follow my Twitter or go to LinkedIn if you want some great, you know, business hot takes about, you know, shitposting basically.Corey: Same thing. Pete, thanks so much for joining me, I appreciate it.Pete: Thanks for having me.Corey: Pete Cheslock, startup advisor, professionally unaffiliated, and recurring re:Invent analyst pal of mine. I'm Cloud Economist Corey Quinn and this is Screaming in the Cloud. If you've enjoyed this podcast, please leave a five-star review on your podcast platform of choice, whereas if you've hated this podcast, please leave a five-star review on your podcast platform of choice along with an angry comment calling me a jackass because do I know how long it took you personally to price CloudWatch RUM?Corey: If your AWS bill keeps rising and your blood pressure is doing the same, then you need The Duckbill Group. We help companies fix their AWS bill by making it smaller and less horrifying. The Duckbill Group works for you, not AWS. We tailor recommendations to your business and we get to the point. Visit duckbillgroup.com to get started.Announcer: This has been a HumblePod production. Stay humble.

Poddin' Next Door
#106 - "Won't He Do It"

Poddin' Next Door

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2022 98:00


On this episode: The ”Poddin' Next Door" crew opens with the usual banter and slappers for your head tops. The guys hit on Jesus cheaters, Tik Tok education, Hall of Fame Sport's Bar, Fun facts, working as a cashier, investing in Hellcats, a crashing economy, racist glasses, struggle meals, putting horses down, and other misinformation. Listen on most Digital Streaming Platforms. Apple, Amazon, Spotify, Google…… Follow + Subscribe: Instagram - @poddinnextdoor YouTube - Poddin' Next Door

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Time Flies with Jesus Sepulveda
Episode 58 - Shop Till You Drop

Time Flies with Jesus Sepulveda

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2022 32:04


Episode 58. On this episode Jesus gives you a quick summary of how his Thanksgiving was he also talks about his regrets on the food choices he made then he goes in to where he's at with the 25 days of Christmas and the shopping that's to come hope you enjoy this episode!   SUBSCRIBE AND COMMENT! Follow Jesus Sepulveda on Instagram @JesusTheComedian

Small Axe Podcast
#Takeprofits and Invest in Cash-Flowing Assets

Small Axe Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2022 36:09


Welcome back to the show! Today's guest is my dear friend Travis who has been one of our first guests in the show. I am glad to have him the second time around. Here's some interesting about Travis: Travis is an experienced real estate investor and managing partner of Freeman Equity with over $40M in assets under management. He has 25 years of experience in real estate investing in several markets across the United States in both the residential and commercial spaces. He focuses on cash-flowing properties to create significant passive income for investors. He is a Software engineer by trade and has spent over 25 years in IT management positions for several Fortune 500 firms including Apple. He applies that experience when identifying investment opportunities and markets. Travis comes from blue-collar roots in Saginaw, Michigan. After the General Motors plant that employed his parents were shut down in the mid-seventies the family was forced to migrate to Sacramento, California in pursuit of the American dream. His parents worked diligently to purchase their first single-family home and ultimately a portfolio of over 30 homes in the area. It is during this time that he learned the work ethic for finding the best deals and the power of investing in cash-flowing real estate. He currently resides in Elverta, California with his wife of over twenty years, three children, and one grandchild. Travis has presented at companies like One Finance, ECMC, & Apple where he teaches employees how to generate passive income while minimizing their tax liabilities in order to achieve their financial goals. Let's dive a little deeper and learn more from Travis!   [00:01 – 07:05] Opening Segment  I introduce our guest, Travis Gibson Connect with Travis through the links below Travis shares about his previous and current deals Important lessons [07:06 – 30:49] Mr. Take Profits The rumors of interest rates going up What to do when you look at data Having to see a deal for yourself Travis tells the investors everything he knows about On walking away from deals Take care of the investors! Travis' Houston deals Projecting and closing deals Bad things about generational wealth How to be aggressive with deals Travis talks about his other investments The equity machine Make capital in safer assets Checkout the calculator and ebook Travis made! [30:50 – 36:08] Closing Segment Travis shares his plans for 2022 Connect with Travis through the links below Final words   Tweetable Quotes: “2021 is a very interesting year for me.” - Travis Gibson   "You do not want that bank account to be low when something happens and you need capital.” - Travis Gibson   "Thanksgiving is difficult if you lose your uncle's, your grandparents, or your parent's money.” - Travis Gibson Find out more and connect with Travis through email travis@freemanequity.com   You can also follow his Facebook, LinkedIn, and his website https://freemanequity.com/ Travis isn't also hard to find on Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter, just look for @freemanequity LEAVE A REVIEW + help someone who wants to explode their business growth by sharing this episode. I believe that you only need a small axe to build a lasting empire. Let's start building yours! To know more about me and all the real estate opportunities you can find, you can connect with me on LinkedIn, Instagram, and Facebook or check out my website https://smallaxecommunities.com/ and book a call with me.

The Official Holiday World Podcast
S4E1 - The One Where... What's Going On?

The Official Holiday World Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2022 73:23


If three's a crowd, four can be a podcast, right? When two #PodSquad members bail at the last minute, Josh steps up to help with some crowdsourced Q&A. #HoWoPo Recorded 1/14/2022 Hosted by: Leah K, Matt E, and Sabrina J Special Guest: Josh M. Email us: podcast@holidayworld.com Leave a voicemail: Phone (812)-937-4401 Ext. 8081 Reach out on social media: @holidayworld using #HoWoPo For Show Notes and Transcript, visit HolidayWorld.com/HoliBlog 2022 Season Passes are now on sale now! Head to HolidayWorld.com/Passes for all the details. Pick Your Date and Plan for Fun! Great deals on Pick Your Date Tickets are now online! HolidayWorld.com/Tickets Subscribe Links: iTunes: http://bit.ly/HWPitunes Spotify: http://bit.ly/HWPspotify Amazon: http://bit.ly/HWP_amzn Stitcher: http://bit.ly/HWPstitcher Google Podcasts: http://bit.ly/HWP_gp YouTube: http://bit.ly/HWP_u2be iHeartRadio: http://bit.ly/HWP_ihr TuneIn: http://bit.ly/HWPtunein Vurbl: https://bit.ly/HWP_vurbl RSS Feed: http://bit.ly/HWP

Duane Sheriff Ministries - Feed
Thanksgiving Activates Faith | Part 2 | Murmuring & Complaining

Duane Sheriff Ministries - Feed

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2022


Faith requires action. One way we can act is when we choose to trust God and simply be thankful. In this session we look at the people of Israel and the five dangers that God told them to avoid. One of those dangers is complaining. Pastor Duane explains why complaining is so dangerous and actually […] The post Thanksgiving Activates Faith | Part 2 | Murmuring & Complaining appeared first on Duane Sheriff Ministries.

Miracle Internet Church Radio
An Attitude of Praise / Dr. Sabrina Sessions / Marshall Perot

Miracle Internet Church Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2022 203:00


Luke 17:12-18  King James Version 12 And as he entered into a certain village, there met him ten men that were lepers, which stood afar off: 13 And they lifted up their voices, and said, Jesus, Master, have mercy on us. 14 And when he saw them, he said unto them, Go shew yourselves unto the priests. And it came to pass, that, as they went, they were cleansed. 15 And one of them, when he saw that he was healed, turned back, and with a loud voice glorified God, 16 And fell down on his face at his feet, giving him thanks: and he was a Samaritan. 17 And Jesus answering said, Were there not ten cleansed? but where are the nine? 18 There are not found that returned to give glory to God, save this stranger.

Louie Tee Network Podcast
Louie Tee Network Pod Ep#226: "Bye Week Sendoff" + Thanksgiving Look Ahead

Louie Tee Network Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2022 41:10


LTN Pod Episode 226 begins with a Gem Droppin' Session focused on the NFC Playoff Picture and what teams are contenders and which are pretenders, next the viewers take over the show during "Social Media Maneuvers" which transitions to the closing of the show with Garbage Time and our Week 12 Thanksgiving look ahead.... Episode Timestamp  (1:43) Droppin' A Gem On Ya Melon: NFC Playoff Picture  (12:09) Social Media Maneuvers (32:01) Garbage Time   Card Collector Series Channel Link: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCa_hPm0t0ZkI91V2CPlGwrw Get Your Louie Tee Network Merch HERE https://theprintchamps.com/product-category/louie-tee/ -OR HERE- https://www.louieteenetwork.net/ltn-merch Donate via PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/LouieTeeNetwork ​Cash App: $LouieTeeNetwork PayPal: paypal.me/LouieTeeNetwork   Affiliate Links: AMAZON: http://bit.ly/louieteenetwork                      TUBEBUDDY: www.tubebuddy.com/LouieTeeNetwork   Check out the website www.louieteenetwork.net   Be sure to SUBSCRIBE to the show!   

New Girl, Old Guy: A New Girl Rewatch Podcast
Episode 59: Thanksgiving III

New Girl, Old Guy: A New Girl Rewatch Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 13, 2022 87:28


There is nothing junior about this episode! Alexander Chester joins Ali to cover season 3, episode 10 of New Girl. Get your questions in for upcoming episodes using the form, here.

Christ Crucified Fellowship
Continue in Prayer with Thanksgiving

Christ Crucified Fellowship

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2022 42:00


Everyone's Business But Mine with Kara Berry
Rice Krispie Turkey: A Sister Wives Recap

Everyone's Business But Mine with Kara Berry

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2022 54:27


This week on Sister Wives Robyn tries to trick Meri into believing she had nothing to do with their separation, Janelle and Christine spend Utah in Thanksgiving, and Kody tries to pretend he doesn't love a "peaceful" holiday! Enjoy!Unblock me, Janelle!!!Follow me on social media and more here! See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Surviving Sister Wives
Ep 119: Sister Wives S16:E8

Surviving Sister Wives

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2022 49:18


"Two Cliques"  Robyn admits there's a devil on her shoulder; Kody skips out on Meri's playdate; Janelle forgets how to use Facetime; two Thanksgiving turkeys vie for Kody's heart.     Looking for additional content and access to all of our recaps?  Sign-up for our Patreon: www.patreon.com/SurvivingPod  Follow us on Twitter: @Surviving_Pod  Email us: SurvivingPod@gmail.com 

Coronavirus 4 1 1  podcast
COVID, Coronavirus, Omicron and Delta variants, and vaccine updates for 01-12-2022

Coronavirus 4 1 1 podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2022 5:22


This is Covid 411, the latest on Omicron and other COVID variants, and new hotspots for January 12th, 2022.Reinforcing just how lucky we are that Omicron is mostly mild, the World Health Organization says the variant is on track to infect more than half of all Europeans. The organization added they don't think it should be viewed as a flu-like endemic illness yet either. The acting head of the FDA said most Americans will get COVID.Quebec is going to start charging adults who won't get vaccinated a financial penalty. That's the first time a government in Canada has taken this step. The amount of the penalty hasn't been decided yet, but it's said it will be “significant.” They aren't calling it a fine, they're calling it a “health contribution.”There might be something to that ventilation argument to fight COVID. Some researchers in the U.K. found the airborne infectivity rate goes down fairly quickly after being released into the air. 50 to 60% within seconds, and after 10 minutes, only 10% of the virus remained infectious. They say as the viral particles leave our wet, carbon dioxide-rich lungs, they dry out, and the loss of carbon dioxide increases the pH dropping infectivity. And a new study by Japanese researchers shows peak viral loads in people infected with Omicron, and thus the peak of contagiousness, happens 3 to 6 days after the onset of symptoms. This adds fuel to the criticism fire against the CDC's revised recommendation that self-isolation time should be 5 days, not 10. In the testing, viral levels were still fairly high in almost all patients between 7 and 9 days.The TSA is reporting 3,694 employees with active Covid infections. That's about 7% of total screeners. The week before Omicron was first identified in the US, there were 275 cases. The surge in cases at the agency is a 1,243% increase since Thanksgiving. Over 96% of TSA employees are currently fully vaccinated. In the United States, cases were up 204%, deaths are up 36%, and hospitalizations are up 83% over 14 days. The 7-day average of new cases has been trending up since December 14. The five states that had the most daily deaths per 100,000 are Indiana, Delaware, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Pennsylvania.There are now over 19 million active cases in the United States, at 19,885,128.The five areas with the greatest increase in hospitalizations per capita: The U.S. Virgin Islands 836%. Puerto Rico 389%, Louisiana 341%. Florida 278%. And Washington, DC 195%. The top 10 areas with the highest number of recent cases per capita according to The New York Times: Teton, WY. Miami-Dade, FL. Pitkin, CO. New York City, NY. Summit, UT. Passaic, NJ. Nantucket, MA. Cass, IL. Hampden, MA. And Nassau, NY. There have been at least 842,139 deaths in the U.S. recorded as Covid-related.The top 3 vaccinating states by percentage of population that's been fully vaccinated: Vermont at 78.2%, Rhode Island at 77.3%, and Maine at 76.4%. The bottom 3 vaccinating states are Wyoming at 47.9%, Alabama at 48.1%, and Mississippi at 48.8%. The percentage of the U.S. that's been fully vaccinated is 62.6%.Globally, cases were up 177% and deaths up 3% over 14 days, with the 7-day average trending up since October 15. There are now over 46 million active cases around the world, at 46,919,390.The five countries with the most new cases: The United States 672,872. France 368,149. Italy 220,532. India 185,112. And Spain 134,942. There have now been over five and a half million deaths reported as Covid-related worldwide, at 5,503,822. For the latest updates, subscribe for free to Covid 411 on your podcast app or ask your smart speaker to play the Covid 411 podcast. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

You Were Made for This
140: Two Relational Benefits to a Thank You Note

You Were Made for This

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2022 21:10


A thank you note benefits both the recipient and the writer. It reminds the writer of blessings received, and it motivates the recipient to bless others again. A written thank you note is a great way to deepen your relationship with someone. Last year's “Make it a Relational New Years Resolution” I first mentioned this a year ago in episode 087, “Make it a Relational New Years Resolution.” It was about resolving to do something kind, caring, or thoughtful for people during the course of the year to the extent you would receive a thank you note for what you did. I'll have a link to this episode at the bottom of the show notes. I was ready to move on today with another relational resolution for this year to talk to you about. But before doing that, I thought we should look back at the results of last year's relational resolution. Before the future, consider the past and present. I was surprised by what I learned when I did this for myself. I'll share what I discovered because it can help you in considering a way to add depth to your relationships here in the New Year. Why a written thank you note? By way of review, to receive a written “thank you” note, you had to do something pretty meaningful for someone to make the effort to show their appreciation in this way. For our purposes, it had to be in writing. Electronic communication didn't count, nor did verbal expressions of gratitude. In the age we live in, where electronic communication is the norm, for someone to use older technology like writing a note, requires a lot more of that person. After I received a thank you note or card last year, I read and dated them, and then placed them in a folder. Observations about the 2021 “thank you” cards I received From a scrap of paper to a linen parchment card, no two were the same. I've gotten identical birthday cards and Christmas cards, but no duplicate thank you notes. I received 5 thank you notes that mentioned appreciation for this podcast. I doubt if any of you have a podcast, but I'm sure a lot of you are doing things you enjoy that benefit other people. Several couples, and two single people we invited for dinner at our house, sent us written thank you notes. Thank you notes for birthdays and high school graduation gifts were the next most common. Two missionary couples who stayed with us a week to 10 days or so thanked us in writing. A friend of ours was sick with Covid, so Janet picked up groceries for her family and I delivered them. We received thank you notes from three teenage boys, all for high school graduation gifts. And they were most tender expressions of gratitude. Their parents raised them well! One person, a donor to our Caring for Others ministry, wrote at least 3 thank you notes over the course of last year. Here he was sending donations to us, and at the same time thanking us for our ministry in quite specific terms about what he was grateful for in what we do. A sampling of thank you notes received I feel a little uncomfortable reading these because they paint Janet and me in a good light, which you would think would happen in a thank you note. A more well-rounded picture would come from complaints people have about us. But my only purpose in sharing them is to give you ideas of what you can do to impact the lives of people, to make a positive difference, to the point they will go to the trouble of thanking you in writing. A secondary purpose is to give you ideas of HOW to thank people, as you listen to how people thanked Janet and me last year for one thing or another. Here's the first one. Just a quick note to say “Thanks” for your friendship over the years! Knowing you guys and being able to LEAN on you at times gives us confidence in His Grace!… Mostly I just wanted to make sure we get something in your 2021 pile of thank you notes.”  ~ L. & J. O.K., so this is clergy appreciation month! Although I consider you a friend you are also my clergy phone friend, and I appreciate your Biblical teaching and related challenges. ORA at work! ~ October V.A. Do you remember ORA? Observe. Reflect. Act. ORA. You have earned a thank you note! Thank you for teaching your listeners about how to care for others. It is so encouraging to listen to you each week. I especially like the one-take-home point for the week. I look forward to actionable items to care for others. ~ D.P. Gratitude expressed for the unexpected We are so grateful for how you are reaching people around the world with your podcast and are happy to help it grow! We are also so grateful that you have been willing to connect with our son (18-year-old high school senior) during this challenging time of a teenage boy's life. He comes home smiling and seems more content. Thank you.   ~ K.P. On the back of envelope: I forgot to tell you. This note is from my Grandma's collection! She always wrote thank you notes! Here's a note from a businessperson to me, as her customer. The following is from the designer of our new website from last September: John, thank you for trusting me to redo your website. It was such a fun project…I love being able to support others doing important work for Christ. Thank you for your loyalty over the years and I am so glad you stumbled upon my ….training video a few years ago. :)    ~ L.D. Thanks so much for making my birthday special. The cake was delicious and I was touched by your thoughtfulness. I love my tomato knife and can't wait to try it. Thanks again.   ~ D. B. Dear John and Janet, Thank you so much for including us in your family lunch last week. You are so kind and generous. Blessings to you two!   ~ J. & K. Dear John and Janet Thanks for the beautiful card and generous gift of money we really appreciate it. We will use it for gas to ride down there. Thanking God for both of you.     ~B.R.and S.R. Dear Grandma and Grandpa, Thank you so much for coming down to my graduation and for your generous gift. I really appreciate all the ways you've supported me and spent time with me throughout my life, like all the times I've stayed at your house and the trips to the library with Grandpa, and the cookies Grandma and I have baked. Thank you always for being there for me. Maybe sometime you can come visit me at the University of South Carolina and we can get some cheese curds and get into an argument about who I should vote for. I hope your trip back went well - see you on Zoom! Love, Nathan So what does all this mean for YOU? How can you use what you've heard today to add more depth to the relationships in YOUR life? Start by remembering that a written thank you note is simply a marker of the positive impact you had in someone's life. That's the point of this relational resolution, not the thank you note itself. Writing a thank you note gets our eyes off ourselves to focus on a blessing we received. One important thing to remember is not to expect people to thank you for the good you do for them. Often they won't. But you do good things for people anyway, because it's the right thing to do. It's not about you; it's about them. Doing good for others is living out Romans 12, and reflecting the character of God. With Jesus living in us, we are equipped and empowered to be the person God created us to be. We truly were made for this. We are made in His image and Jesus was often doing good things for people, with no expectation that he would be thanked for it. In fact, I'll have to look into this later, but I don't recall any stories in the Bible where people thanked Jesus for blessing them. If any of you can think of an example, please let me know. If writing a handwritten thank you note is a challenge for you, ask God for help. Ask him for help in remembering the blessings you received, and who were the people God used to bless you. Ask him for help in what to say and how to say it. When we ask God for help like this it won't be hard, If you have young children, and where appropriate, post the notes on your refrigerator or where they can see them. Share them with your kids as they come in. When you write one, and before you mail it, tell your kids what you are doing and why you are doing it. Then read it to them. Have them put the note in the envelope, seal it, and place the stamp on the envelope. Teach them by example. For me, our kids are grown and have kids of their own. But when I die I want them to display a board at my funeral with all the thank you notes I received. Skip the pics of summer picnics and faded Christmas gatherings when I was in my 20s and had hair on my head. Display the thank you notes. Maybe that will encourage someone. Here's the main point I hope you remember from today's episode A thank you note benefits both the writer and recipient. It reminds the writer of blessings received and motivates the recipient to continue reflecting the character of God by blessing others. These are two great benefits of a handwritten thank you note. I'd love to hear any thoughts you have about today's episode, and any thank you notes you received. Closing I closing, I hope your thinking was stimulated by today's show, to both reflect and to act by doing good for people to the extent they thank you in writing for it. Ephesians 2:10 tells us we were made for this. It reads “For we are God's masterpiece. He has created us anew in Christ Jesus, so we can do the good things he planned for us long ago.” Well, that's all for today. I look forward to connecting with you again next week when I will suggest another relational resolution for this current year. I can't wait to share it with you! Goodbye for now. Related episodes you may want to listen to 087: Make it a Relational New Years Resolution 088: Get Them to say “Thank You for Asking” Our Sponsor You Were Made for This is sponsored by Caring for Others, a missionary care ministry. We depend upon the generosity of people like you to pay our bills.  If you'd like to support what we do with a secure tax-deductible donation, please click here. Thank you.

The Nostalgia Test Podcast

Dan & Manny talk about Hollywood's obsession with rebooting 80s classics by putting the news of a possible

The Nietzsche Podcast
Untimely Reflections #9 - Mynaa Miesnowan & Keegan chat at Sagebrush

The Nietzsche Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 11, 2022 103:09


On a cold, rainy afternoon this past November, Mynaa Miesnowan and I met up at a little bar in Austin, Texas called Sagebrush. I'm a lifelong South Austinite and Sagebrush is a newer bar that exists within a very, very old building, that was a country & western dancehall back in the 1960's. The modern decor reminds of a Texas bar in a Rodriguez or Tarantino film, with a backlit landscape of a starry desert lining the walls. Mynaa and I grabbed a beer and made our way around back, even though everything was damp. We walked around and talked for awhile, beneath the gradiants of white and gray dimly hovering above the neighborhood that seemed at once sleepy and busy - as the bar had only just opened and there was literally no one else there, owing to the rain & the Thanksgiving holiday, but the traffic was picking up outside as everyone rushed to get home. Eventually, we dried off some chairs and began recording a podcast. Although we met up only for a brief time, it was great that we got to have this conversation. It was so neat to meet someone that I met through the podcast, in person this time. We talked about the direction of our society & culture, and the separation of our cultural ideas from any kind of physical or biological reality, which happens to be Nietzsche's definition of decadence. We wondered whether Schopenhauer's dad really committed suicide, and whether Nietzsche sincerely believed in Christianity as a youth. We considered what it means to pass through many convictions, and talked about my own history with libertarian thought. We compared the current direction of society to both 1984 & Brave New World. We both wore our love of Nietzsche on our sleeve and mostly just let the conversation go wherever it took us. By far the least rigorous episode of the entire podcast, and one of my favorites.

Poddin' Next Door
#105 - "Golfing Beans"

Poddin' Next Door

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 11, 2022 101:25


On this episode: The ”Poddin' Next Door" crew opens with the usual banter and slappers for your head tops. RIP to the GOAT Bob Saget..The guys talk about Chakras, fin facts, Arctic gun testing, Sport Segment, Golfing Beans, Food, jewelry Joe, 3 hobbies, thrifting gold mine, and other things were discussed. Listen on most Digital Streaming Platforms. Apple, Amazon, Spotify, Google…… Follow + Subscribe: Instagram - @poddinnextdoor YouTube - Poddin' Next Door

time comedy family food discussion culture social voting japan management jre weed california fighting mexico reflecting spotify music gentrification amazon apple christmas drink shot strippers dating relationships marriage political state sports champs game feelings netflix picking space brothers world west social media theory energy texas single hip hop testing friend stories mother donald trump ios variant cons fake news mental health hulu border sugar religion holidays drugs gaming workplace guns cancer emotional hobbies outdoors driver baby bros rings school bullying afghanistan thanksgiving rip amish exotic ai phone sauce toxic dates body tradition chefs mexican haitian after effects disabilities struggle girlfriends abortion helen keller closer whites shooting scams drip pod shopping cleveland browns palestine trucker fishing dj screw 1985 kanye west lies bill cosby thrifting pros plastic arab bitcoin nonbinary black friday strip clubs facetime hiv how to meals conspiracy theory tendencies goat joe biden scammers historians attention capitol ye ancestry astro followers mania stocks dangers showering rotten tomatoes industrial chakra wet kwanzaa headphones jeff bezos nascar arctic vibes incident gamble banking alec baldwin unrest astroworld extravaganza hoover life hacks dave chappelle beans russ jargon eats mike pence graduation fossils adoptions chakras whataburger takeover us military nra energy drinks 1987 joe rogan colorism defensive finesse boyfriends hug fun facts expressing 21savage shaming noobs lacking taco tuesday right to die caitlyn jenner bob saget impacts jay electronica questioning randomness podding eaters baby jesus burning bush influenza alerts winter storms rifles golfing atf donating gangland graduates 23andme j balvin el salvador traits phonetic homies gang culture nfts ebt muslim brotherhood nextdoor sleepers finish line gamestop picky nicknames king richard dream girl verdict blue origin enforcements bday doja cat hbic couponing ebonics taco truck sideburns arranged marriages pnd debacle surroundings reconnecting wealth gap summer walker pfas coke cola homesharing misogynist 2022 jbp gun laws terrenos more words dababy child tax credit pimp c alone time panhandling onlyfans birthday gifts partynextdoor thin blue line taco stand fat pat creosote drink champs poddin ivermectin criminal psychology coronavirus shoes off fifth ward false hope covid-19 ahmaud arbery contact tracing fast 9 delta variant
Financially Ever After
Navigating the Demands of Life and Starting 2022 in Balance

Financially Ever After

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 11, 2022 34:57


Dr. Randy Heller is a marriage and family therapist, collaborative mental health professional, and Adjunct Professor at Nova Southeastern University. She founded The Family Network, Inc., a comprehensive counseling center providing individual, couple, family, and group services to children, adolescents, and adults. In this episode, she talks with Stacy Francis about navigating the demands of life and starting the new year in balance and shares an action plan to make 2022 your best year. Thanksgiving to Christmas is typically a period of fear and uncertainty for families going through divorce. Many women experience fear of the unknown; they wonder if they will be alone forever and whether they can manage being on their own. You need to give yourself permission to be the best you can, rather than being perfect. If you allow yourself a day or two where you don't hold yourself to the ideal you, you can take that time to rest and recharge so you can resume meeting your personal expectations. When you find yourself in massive internal chaos, stop for a moment to just breathe. If you can breathe easily, then you can think about your next step. Like yoga, if you're not focused on what you're doing at the moment, you're going to fall. Worrying about all the ‘shoulds' will only prevent you from actually doing things. Instead, pay attention to the things you can manage today, and celebrate those accomplishments. The rest can be done tomorrow. Resources Dr. Randy Heller on LinkedIn FamilyNetworkFlorida.com Stacy Francis on LinkedIn | Twitter Email: stacy@francisfinancial.com FrancisFinancial.com Reach out to receive a complimentary consultation! Contact Francis Financial at +212-374-9008 or visit Francis Financial today!

RISE UP with Dragon
EPISODE 73 - RISE UP WITH DRAGON - THE GRATITUDE FREQUENCY

RISE UP with Dragon

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2022 30:37


THE GRATITUDE FREQUENCY??? Join Dragon to acknowledge and focus on his favorite holiday of the year. THANKSGIVING. The super highway to living in the present moment is the practice of gratitude. Like the Science of the #FLOWSTATE Gratitude is not a destination but a state or FREQUENCY.

The Lazy Genius Podcast
#244 - How to Choose the Right Lazy Genius Principle for You

The Lazy Genius Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2022 23:25


In my book The Lazy Genius Way, I share 13 principles you can use to Lazy Genius any situation in your life. Sometimes you might need one principle, sometimes a few together, and sometimes you don't know which to choose. When you're faced with some sort of challenge whether it's a system in your home, a relationship hangup, a time management problem, whatever it might be, even with 13 principles to choose from, sometimes that still seems like a lot. Hopefully, this episode will give you a tangible framework for how to choose the right Lazy Genius principle for you.Helpful Companion LinksGrab a copy of The Lazy Genius Way (or preorder The Lazy Genius Kitchen — out March 22!)Principle Categories Instagram postDownload a transcript of this episode.Lazy Genius of the Week: Paula Kay MyersLove the soup podcast and need to share with you my LG gift idea. My 80-year-old dad and stepmom, like most 80-year-olds, don't need or want anything. They actually act bratty when receiving a gift. But 2 years ago I had a brainstorm! I wrapped a case of 12 quart mason jars in Christmas paper and when they opened it I told them it was a soup of the month club. Perfect gift - consumable, practical, and something to look forward to. And I always delivered it with fresh bread. It also obligated me to a monthly visit with them. We were about 45 minutes apart at the time and they absolutely loved it. And began asking me in March when they had the option to renew. My husband and I have since moved 12 hours away so this year when I was visiting after Thanksgiving, I filled their deep freezer with bags of soup and wrapped up 2 cute soup bowls. Best gift I've ever given. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Feeling Good Podcast | TEAM-CBT - The New Mood Therapy
276: Ask David: Why are People the Way They Are? with Special Guest, Dr. Matthew May

Feeling Good Podcast | TEAM-CBT - The New Mood Therapy

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 10, 2022 53:26


Here are the questions for today's Ask David, featuring special guest, back by popular demand, the extraordinary Dr. Matt May, and of course, our super-special hostess, Dr. Rhonda Barovsky! Why is my dad the way he is? Why are people the way they are? What can you do about positive distortions? More Should Statements! How can you talk to someone who refuses to talk to you?   Why is my dad the way he is? Why are people the way they are? Hi Dr. Burns and Dr. Barovsky! I love your show. Keep up the good work! I'd deeply appreciate your time and insight. My dad is 70, my mom is 67, and I'm 38. Throughout my life my dad has done things like he did earlier tonight. I was at my parent's house and my mom was telling me how Thanksgiving was going to be at my parent's cabin with the whole family like we have in years past at which my point my dad firmly said "No." My mom asked "Why?" and he just shook his head and shortly after walked out of the room to go to the bathroom, shut the door, and said "no" angrily three times in the other room to himself but loud enough for she could hear. He'll seemingly randomly act extremely possessive by angrily forbidding family get togethers, or my mom from doing things, or family to borrow things. He'll just say "No" without further explanation. Always, always, upon asking "Why?" to his "no." He'll either say angrily, "Because I said so!", say nothing, or just repeat "No" further. My mom says sometimes "Can you just gave me a reason?" and it's the same "No", silence, or "because I said so." I don't jump into the aforementioned back and fourth communication because I know such a person can't be changed and don't want to make an argumentative mess. He's never displayed any comfort with expressing the slightest vulnerability. He's very, very silent. All of my life he has displayed bullying type tendencies. Whenever I visit my parents he always shows tremendous eagerness to want to scowl and berate people for the tiniest mistakes (even people he doesn't know in public, like cashiers.) I think even the most skilled of five secrets practitioners might be outmatched. My mom tonight, and all my life, has asked me why is he like this? I've been haunted to try understand this question all my whole life too. So, I'm putting the question to you Dr. Burns and Dr. Barovsky: Why is someone like this? You must've heard of similar situations and have insight? I want to feel compassion and understanding for him. I don't want to live with baggage. And mainly, mainly I just want to relieve myself from anger thinking should, labeling, and overgeneralizing thoughts like "He shouldn't act like this", "He shouldn't be such a bully", "He's being a jerk." Thank you, Mark David's Reply Thanks, Mark, I can certainly understand your sadness, frustration, and anger, as well as your love and concern for your mom. Scientists don't yet know why people are the way they are. My focus is on helping people at specific moments of interaction when they want help. You have not asked for help in this email. I do make this type of statement in practically every Ask David episode, but have not had much luck in getting people to listen, because the general questions that have no answers keep rolling in. You say that your dad cannot change. To my ear, this statement is both blaming and untrue. People change at every moment of every day. The real question I always have is this, and it might not interest you. Do YOU want to change the way you interact with him? You and your mom probably both do things that trigger him, like silence, or asking WHY when it is abundantly clear that this response has a 100% guarantee of triggering him. I apologize if this is not the answer you were looking for! David   What can you do about positive distortions? How much information is there in the book (or a particular podcast) on how we address positive distortions most effectively? It is mentioned briefly that these can be more difficult to overcome, because of the more positively perceived "benefits", which may also be re-enforced externally (such as "yes, he is such a nice person, nobody wants him to express any frustration or anger occasionally - not even he himself want to do this!"). It affects motivation to any change, or, at least, creates ambivalence. Some more on this would be great, please. Thanks, Tillerich David's Reply Hi Tillerich, Good question, and I will schedule it for an Ask David. As you point out, there usually isn't much motivation for change when it comes to positive distortions. Positive distortions trigger habits and addictions, violence, mania, marital conflicts, and narcissism, to name just a few areas. Each is handled differently, but dealing with motivation / resistance is key in every area. David   More Should Statements Johnny asks: Can you help me disprove my negative thoughts? I manage to disprove them, but they return after a few hours. “A loser is someone who lives at home with his parents after he turns 18.” “I should be bold, confident, and secure.” “I should be better than I am.” David's Reply Hi Johnny, Sorry you've been struggling. The first thing to do is A = Assessment of Resistance, since resistance is the key to nearly all therapeutic failure. Tools would include the Paradoxical Invitation followed by the “Miracle Cure” question: What are you hoping for? What kinds of changes are you asking for? This is important. For example, you mentioned a problem with procrastination. If you have a procrastination problem, the strategies would be completely different. Other tools at the “A” portion of the session would probably include The Magic Button Positive Reframing The Magic Dial The Acid Test. If you decide that you actually DO want to change the way you think and feel, given the fact that you're still living at home, a few of the many methods that could be used include: Identify the Distortions Explain the Distortions Individual Downward Arrow Technique Semantic Technique Cost-Benefit Analysis Let's Define Terms Be Specific Examine the Evidence. Double Standard Technique (DST): For example, would you say these things to someone else? Our son has been living with us for a while, but I don't think of him as “a loser!” My wife and I are actually happy to provide some support while he is sorting out what he wants to do next. Paradoxical DST Externalization of Voices with three strategies: Self-Defense Acceptance Paradox CAT (Counter-Attack Technique) There are many additional techniques that could be used. But first, the action would focus on resistance and motivation. Tackling the distorted thoughts before completing the “A” step is usually not a very good idea! David D. Burns, MD   How can you talk to someone who refuses to talk to you? Hi Dr. Burns, I came across your book and podcasts during a time in which I was having a hard time communicating with my adult son. They have helped me tremendously in acknowledging my part in the problem. While I've done a lot of work on my own self-esteem, anxiety and depression, sadly it has come a little too late as my son does not want to talk to me and we are estranged. Any thoughts or advice on how to reach out to a loved one in this situation? Now that I have been practicing for the 5 secrets I want to better connect with my son and work through our issues? Thanks, Shelly David's Reply Thanks, Shelly, I'm so sorry that you are estranged from your son. Have you done the written exercises in my book, Feeling Good Together? That's a good place to start, as this very topic is addressed in the chapter on how to talk to someone who refuses to talk to you. The method that can be helpful is called “Multiple Choice Empathy” or “Multiple Choice Disarming.” We will likely illustrate it on the show. Rhonda, Matt, and David  

Locked On MLB
Revisiting my Baseball Cards with Mikel and Mateo

Locked On MLB

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2022 43:38


This Thanksgiving, I gave my collection of baseball cards to Mikel and Mateo, two young men who are neighbors of my cousin. Around New Year, I caught up with them and talked about our favorite cards. Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order. BetOnline AG There is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Find Every MLB Team Covered: https://linktr.ee/lockedonmlb #MLB #Baseball #WorldSeries Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Duane Sheriff Ministries - Feed
Thanksgiving Activates Faith | Part 1

Duane Sheriff Ministries - Feed

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2022


In this message, Pastor Duane talks about one of the actions of Faith which is Thanksgiving! We as people must learn how to activate our faith and train our children and others to activate their faith by modeling an attitude of gratitude. The post Thanksgiving Activates Faith | Part 1 appeared first on Duane Sheriff Ministries.

DVC Newscast by My DVC Points
N065 Remy’s ends Virtual Queue, Disneyland Magic Key lawsuit, and more

DVC Newscast by My DVC Points

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2022 24:13


Shannon and Pete discuss the end of Remy's virtual queue, physical DVC cards discontinued, queue introduced to manage DVC site traffic, Riviera and Aulani price increases, Disneyland's Magic Key lawsuit, and more entertainment to return to WDW. N065 Season 7 of the My DVC Points Podcast was brought to you by: DVC Resale Market - Industry Leader in DVC Resales DVC Rental Store - DVC Point Rental and Swap Partner Monera Financial - Exclusively Financing DVC Contracts Patreon supporters in the My DVC Points VIP Producer Club. Remy's Ratatouille Adventure to end Virtual Queue Disney announced that on January 10th, they will suspend use of the virtual queue at Remy's Ratatouille Adventure. This means there will be only two options for riding, standby queue, or the individual paid lightning lane. It is expected that standby waits will be significant. Source: Disney Parks Blog DVC Blue Cards discontinued - now use “Magic Mobile” for your DVC card DVC had previously announced that the physical “Blue Card” was going to be suspended on January 1, 2022. Now we know the replacement is through the My Disney Experience App, and using Magic Mobile. MagicMobile was introduced in 2021 as a new feature allowing guests to use most smartphones and watches to replicate features of the MagicBand. It has now been expanded to show digital membership verification. MagicMobile is configured using the My Disney Experience app on supported smartphones. Tap on the "hamburger" button on the bottom right (three horizontal lines) and select "Disney MagicMobile." Tap "Set Up Your Pass" and use the "Change Pass Style" button to select one of the available card designs. (You do NOT need to select the DVC design for it to register you as a DVC member.) After selecting a design, tap on the "Add to Wallet" button to create the digital pass within the smartphone's Apple or Android wallet. This electronic card will show any affiliation including Annual Passes and DVC. Source: My DIsney Experience App DVC Webpage Using Virtual Queue For Login The DVC members-only website has recently added a queuing system to control the volume of traffic. When the virtual queue is in place, visitors will not be able to immediately log in. Instead, they will be presented with the following message: Due to high demand on the Member website, you are currently waiting to visit disneyvacationclub.com. If your need is not urgent, we recommend that you try again at a later time. If you wish to remain in the queue, please do not refresh this page or close your browser and you'll be redirected shortly. Thank you for your patience. This queuing process could present issues for members looking to make reservations early in the morning when the 11 or 7 month booking windows come into play. Reservations open daily at 8:00am eastern, with some resorts and room types filling within minutes, in accordance with high member demand. Several recent late-morning login attempts saw our access delayed by approximately 60 seconds. The change comes as 11-month reservations are being accepted for popular dates in the fall of 2022, with Thanksgiving and Christmas periods rapidly approaching. Source: DVC News Riviera, Aulani Set For Price Increase In Early 2022 On February 3, 2022, the price for Disney's Riviera Resort and Aulani, Disney Vacation Club Villas will rise to $207 each. This represents an increase of $6 per point from the current $201 each. These price increases come as Disney Vacation Club prepares to relaunch sales of the Villas at Disney's Grand Floridian Resort & Spa. 200 additional Resort Studio rooms are scheduled to be added in the summer of 2022. Points charts were recently revealed for both 2022 and 2023. Sales are expected to begin sometime in the first quarter of 2022. No details have been released regarding pricing or promotions for additional Grand Floridian points. Source: DVC News Lawsuit filed by Disneyland's Magic Key Holders; Disney responds The lawsuit filed on behalf of other Dream Key holders alleges that limiting the number of park pass reservations available for Dream Keys — which were advertised as having “no blockout dates” — when passes for regular tickets are still available is a violation of the program's contract as well as false advertising. More than 3,600 Dream Keys were sold. In total, the lawsuit includes six causes of action, including violations of the consumers' legal remedies act, violations of the false advertising law, violations of the unfair competition law, breach of contract, negligent misrepresentation, and concealment/non-disclosure. Disney has filed a notice of removal, which takes the case from state court to a United States District Court. Source: WDWNT More entertainment to return to Walt Disney World Select fan-favorite tours from the Enchanting Extras Collection will return to Walt Disney World on February 6, 2022. Disney's Keys to the KingdomCaring for GiantsWild Africa TrekUp Close with RhinosSavor the Savanna After an over 20-month closure, “Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular!” is finally performing again at Disney's Hollywood Studios. Disney has made a few updates, including repainted sets, replaced lights and soundboard, and new sound effects. Unfortunately, audience members currently are not able to come on stage and be part of the show due to physical distancing guidelines. Source: Disney Parks Blog My DVC Points is an awesome community of DVC members. Our positive, respectful, and authentic conversations about Disney Vacation Club are designed to help people make informed and educated decisions about what's best for their families. Please join us to continue the conversations on our Facebook Group, Discord Server, and YouTube channel. It takes an awesome community of DVC members to produce our content. We're always recruiting people to help research, produce, edit, or join our shows to share their stories. Thus far, we've had over 225 DVC members on our shows. If our content has been a blessing to your family, please consider supporting our show through our VIP Producer's Club at Patreon.com and join us for the Patreon After-Party from our live shows. Facebook admins and moderators of the My DVC Points Community Group: Sandy Symianick, Gina Grotsky, Shannon Ford, Caleb Allison, and Mary Anne Tracy. "Take Flight" music by Martinrowberry1 on Pond5.

The Cabral Concept
2164: Elevated Heart Rate at Night, High Potassium, Insulin & Fat Burning, Child Diarrhea, Losing Voice, Chicken Pox (HouseCall)

The Cabral Concept

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 8, 2022 24:12


Welcome back to our weekend Cabral HouseCall shows! This is where we answer our community's wellness, weight loss, and anti-aging questions to help people get back on track! Check out today's questions:  Lorena: Hi there! I'm a 28 year old Vata and IHP Level 1 and 2 certified. Recently, I've been noticing that my Oura ring has constantly been telling me that my heart rate has been elevated at night. My HRV as a result is much lower than usual. I haven't got one night of a normal heart rate and it's been in “red” in the Oura app (56-62 bpm. At the same time that this started happening, I started to feel some weird neurological symptoms similar to those in MCAS (intense anxiety especially after eating, heart palpitations, brain fog & more). I've also suddenly started to experience bloating and gas after whole food meals (not smoothies). I've never had digestive issues before and did the CBO a year ago for skin issues solely. Trying to figure out how to lower this heart rate at night. I've even lowered stressed massively (at work & stopped working out intensively). Any idea what could be going on? I take a good amount of magnesium before bed too and sometimes even melatonin. Waiting on stool test results because I want to rule out parasites & h pylori. But if the latter is negative, what else should I look at? Melanie: I always hear you talk about people with high blood pressure needing more potassium in their diet. They would therefore not have to worry too much about sodium. However, my dad has high blood pressure and a few weeks ago ended in the hospital as his potassium levels were very very elevated and it was life threatening. He has high blood pressure, diabetes type 2 etc… I was wondering how this can be possible? I thought everyone with high blood pressure usually had low potassium levels! Btw this event happened the day after he took the laxative to do a colonoscopy so not sure if this is relevant. Anonymous: Hi Stephen, I have a question about insulin. In the health world currently, there is A LOT of talk about blood sugar and insulin in regards to losing weight. I am regularly reading that insulin must be kept low because insulin halts fat oxidation. Therefore is insulin is up you can't burn fat. However, there is an abundance of research that shows that under isocaloric conditions, there is little to no difference between LCHF and HCLF diets. I knw you yourself are familiar with the rice, fruit, and fruit juice diet reearch which was basically all carbs and yet insulin sensitivity was improved and weight loss occured. Surely this would suggest energy balance is the overriding important factor in weight loss. If "fat can't be burned when insulin is present or high" how can such studies be explained? Would love your insight here. Thank you. Amber: Hello Dr.Cabral. First I just want to say thank you so much for all you do and give. I'm currently getting my level 1 and I truly look forward to learning from you everyday. Ok so in regards to my question… My 7 year old son got covid about 3 weeks ago now. He got hit in the form of mostly diarrhea for two days. I'm only giving that piece of info because the current problem has only happened since having said virus. (In all his 7 years he has been sick about 4 other times.) He's been hit with the current problem about 3 times in the last two weeks. He'll be eating and his stomach will start to hurt really bad. One, was on Thanksgiving which I thought ok maybe all the different foods being combined. Then it happened again today two different times after eating something he always eats. Didn't hit him as hard but still came. His stomach does seem to settle once I give him this ginger drink. My mom intuition tells me something isn't right and I need to catch it before it develops into something worse. I have some ideas on where to start but I'd love your thoughts first. Greatly appreciate it. Thank you very much. Ewa: hello, my son Isak18 can't seem to get his full voice back after he caught a cold early fall, which happened around the same time last year. Its Really bad especially in the morning when he has to cough, clearing the pflem and scratchyness out. The ENT took a pict of inflamed vocal cords, lots of pflem and gave him antibiotics and steroids. He felt all better for a week before it came back again. He is working outside around damp leaves quite a bit but doesn't have any other mold-symptoms... Since he was a little puppy his colds always got to his lungs and airways. What do you think doc, whats going on? Much appreciation your way! Ewa and Isak Malinda: Ive read in medical studies of children who contract the chicken pox virus are less likely to contract shingles later in life, which is so much worse. If this is true what is the best way for them to catch the chicken pox now that so many children are vaccinated against it? What can parents do to avoid their child from contracting painful shingles later in life? As well as naturally boosting myself? Thank you for tuning into today's Cabral HouseCall and be sure to check back tomorrow where we answer more of our community's questions!  - - - Show Notes & Resources: http://StephenCabral.com/2164 - - - Get Your Question Answered: http://StephenCabral.com/askcabral   - - - Dr. Cabral's New Book, The Rain Barrel Effect https://amzn.to/2H0W7Ge - - - Join the Community & Get Your Questions Answered: http://CabralSupportGroup.com - - -  Dr. Cabral's Most Popular At-Home Lab Tests: > Complete Minerals & Metals Test (Test for mineral imbalances & heavy metal toxicity) - - - > Complete Candida, Metabolic & Vitamins Test (Test for 75 biomarkers including yeast & bacterial gut overgrowth, as well as vitamin levels) - - - > Complete Stress, Mood & Metabolism Test (Discover your complete thyroid, adrenal, hormone, vitamin D & insulin levels) - - - > Complete Stress, Sleep & Hormones Test (Run your adrenal & hormone levels) - - - > Complete Food Sensitivity Test (Find out your hidden food sensitivities) - - - > Complete Omega-3 & Inflammation Test (Discover your levels of inflammation related to your omega-6 to omega-3 levels) - - - > View all Functional Medicine lab tests (View all Functional Medicine lab tests you can do right at home for you and your family)

Relentless Health Value
INBW33: Thank You, and a Few Thoughts

Relentless Health Value

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2022 14:00


As one of our guests, Dr. Tony DiGioia (EP332), has said, healthcare has been pushed to its limits this past year; but that doesn't mean that nothing good has come of it. Celebrating our bright spots and using our experiences to inform future innovations is really the key to more accessible, equitable, and higher quality of care. While the timing of the celebration could, in general, be better given the latest pandemic news, as they say, there's no time like the present. So, let's do this thing. Also, it's just definitely good from a mental health perspective to find bright spots and to be grateful for them. So, let me kick this off with all of the gratitude I can hold in my two hands for anybody listening who is on the so-called front line of healthcare. My appreciation cannot be expressed more fiercely. I wish, in fact, that there was more that I/we could do to address the systemic issues that plague our healthcare industry and really impact you directly. Speaking of doctors as one of these frontline healthcare groups, in the Doximity Physician Compensation Report that was released for this past year, here's four stats to know:   Twenty-two percent of physicians are considering early retirement because of overwork. Sixteen percent of physicians are looking for another employer because of overwork. Twelve percent of physicians are looking for another career because of overwork. Twenty-seven percent of physicians said they're not overworked, so I guess there's that—that's a bright spot. So, all you docs, nurses, PAs, social workers, therapists of all kinds, any other healthcare workers: Thank you for all that you do even in the face of these adversities and a bunch of seemingly shortsighted policy and/or administrative decisions. Take care of yourself first and foremost. We need you; we appreciate you. Thank you. I'd also like to thank everybody who listened to Relentless Health Value this past year. Thank you for being part of an inspired and inspirational community of individuals who are trying hard to do the right thing and learn and connect with others on a similar journey—even in the face of all the perverse incentives and calcified status quo processes, the whole host of factors that add up to formidable barriers to positive change. All of us—and I'm thinking that includes you—we continue to press forward. This is important because the more of us there are, the more of us who link hands and do some combination of educate, cajole, scold, guilt into, demand, lead, vote, wear down … the more of us who consider ourselves part of the change, the more effective we can be. So, recruit your fellow thinkers and let's continue to make inroads. I want to give a special thank you to the many of you who have reached out to me over this past year. You have encouraged, coached, and debated with me. You have added details and case studies. You've provided context. You have offered up topics to explore and introduced me and our team over here to some great guests. You have changed my mind. You have made me realize that there's some maybe underlying reason for something that is, in fact, valid or a consequence that maybe hasn't been thought through well enough by me and/or others. I couldn't be more thankful or appreciative to every single one of you. For more information, go to aventriahealth.com.   Each week on Relentless Health Value, Stacey uses her voice and thought leadership to provide insights for healthcare industry decision makers trying to do the right thing. Each show features expert guests who break down the twists and tricks in the medical field to help improve outcomes and lower costs across the care continuum. Relentless Health Value is a top 100 podcast on iTunes in the medicine category and reaches tens of thousands of engaged listeners across the healthcare industry. In addition to hosting Relentless Health Value, Stacey is co-president of QC-Health, a benefit corporation finding cost-effective ways to improve the health of Americans. She is also co-president of Aventria Health Group, a consultancy working with clients who endeavor to form collaborations with payers, providers, Pharma, employer organizations, or patient advocacy groups. 03:36 Thank you to our listeners and the feedback you've given the show over the years. 05:10 “Good and bad is a matter of extremes.” 06:20 Thank you to Dr. Steve Schutzer, Dr. George Mathews, Dr. Ge Bai, Troy Larsgard, Dr. Hugh Sims, Vinay Eaton, Dr. Brian Decker, Jeff Hogan, Peter Hayes, Dr. Aaron Mitchell, Parker Edman, Andre Wenker, Doug Aldeen, Cristy Gupton, LynAnn Henderson, Chad Jackson, and Darrell Moon. 07:27 Thank you to our iTunes reviewers. 07:47 If you haven't given us a review yet, please do here. 08:01 Thank you to Malfoxley, Jopo1234, and Teresa O'Keefe for your 2021 reviews. 08:19 Thank you to Dr. Nadia Chaudhri, who sadly died this past year of ovarian cancer but who did so much to advance the awareness of ovarian cancer and pursue better outcomes and better patient care. Look through her Twitter feed. 08:39 Thank you to Brian Klepper, who is a great writer but also runs what might be the largest Listserv for those on the innovative self-insured employer side of healthcare. What I most admire about Brian is his ability and dedication to fact-based and productive debate. Brian is featured on several RHV episodes this past year. You can check them out here: EP335 and AEE16. 09:09 I'd also like to thank Dr. Eric Bricker for his series called AHealthcareZ. Dr. Bricker is a guest on an episode coming up that I'm so looking forward to publishing. 09:45 Thanks to these writers for taking the time and effort to put out such worthwhile content: Brendan Keeler, Kevin O'Leary, Nikhil Krishnan, Olivia Webb, Joe Connolly, Christian Milaster (Telehealth Tuesday), Gist Healthcare daily/weekly newsletter and podcast, John Marchica's newsletter and podcast, and Merrill Goozner.10:10 If you don't already, I'd also recommend following these individuals on LinkedIn: Darren Fogarty, Leon Wisniewski, and Christin Deacon (listen to Christin's episode about the CAA this past fall). 10:26 David Contorno and Emma Fox, thanks so much for all of your work motivating collaboration and inspiring self-insured employers to wield the power they possess in meaningful ways. There's a symposium coming up that anyone interested should check out. 10:42 I appreciate and periodically check out Julie Yoo from Andreessen Horowitz's collection of resources on a Google doc. 10:55 Thanks to Rohan Siddhanti and Ezequiel Halac for organizing events in NYC. 11:03 People often ask me for podcast recommendations, so here's a few I listen to regularly: John Lynn's podcasts, Creating a New Healthcare with Dr. Zeev Neuwirth, Race to Value with Eric Weaver, Radio Advisory, Gist Healthcare Daily, The #HCBiz Show! with Don Lee, and Primary Care Cures with Ron Barshop (I was on the show released Thanksgiving week). There's also the Pharmacy Podcast Network.11:42 Also thanks to the following publications who have given us press credentials and passes to conferences: STAT News, NODE.Health, HealthIMPACT, and JAMA. 12:03 Lastly, we have a tip jar on our Web site which we don't really publicize. I say this to emphasize that those who choose to donate are just simply kind and gracious individuals: Alex Dou, Linda Garcia, James Farley, Arthur Berens, Lois Drapin, James Cheairs, Robert Matthews, Lois Niland, Teresa O'Keefe, Richard Klasco, Hugh Sims, Matt Warhaftig, Meredith Fried, Chad Jackson, Vidar Jorgensen, and Brandon Weber. 12:38 Thank you ALL for your continued leadership in improving healthcare. 12:42 Christin Deacon has said, “What we need more of in the healthcare industry are leaders who are willing to take on legacy institutions and their lobbyists, in both public and private discourse. We need leaders that are willing to take on an industry that makes up about 20% of our GDP and is willing to go on record stating that the goal is not just to curb growth but, rather, stop it and rebuild this whole thing better for patients.” For more information, go to aventriahealth.com. From all of us at Relentless Health Value, THANK YOU for your listenership and support. Our host, Stacey, shares highlights and resources from this past year on our latest #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #podcast #digitalhealth Did you know you can review our #podcast? https://relentlesshealthvalue.com/4-steps-rate-review-podcast-itunes/ Our host, Stacey, shares highlights and resources from this past year on our latest #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #digitalhealth In memory of @DrNadiaChaudhri, check out her Twitter feed for info on better #patientoutcomes and care. Our host, Stacey, shares highlights and resources from this past year on our latest #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #digitalhealth Check out @DrEricB's AHealthcareZ for in-depth industry information. Our host, Stacey, shares highlights and resources from this past year on our latest #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #digitalhealth Thanks to @healthbjk, @olearykm, @nikillinit, @OliviaWebbC, @JConnol, @GistHealthcare, @DarwinHealth, @_GoozNews, and @HealthChrism for putting out great content. Our host, Stacey, shares highlights and resources from this past year on our latest #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #digitalhealth We appreciate and recommend following @julesyoo for more #healthcareinsights. Our host, Stacey, shares highlights and resources from this past year on our latest #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #digitalhealth Thanks to @RSiddhanti and @halac_ezequiel for their event organizing in NYC. Our host, Stacey, shares highlights and resources from this past year on our latest #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #digitalhealth We love #podcasts! Check out some of Stacey's recs in our show notes, including @techguy, @ZeevNeuwirth, @Eric_S_Weaver, @raemwoods, @Alexolgin, @The_HCBiz, @RonBarshop, and @PharmacyPodcast. #healthcare #healthcarepodcast Thanks to the following #healthcarepublications as well: @statnews, @HITHealthIMPACT, @JAMA_current, and @nodehealthorg. Recent past interviews: Click a guest's name for their latest RHV episode! Stacey Richter (INBW32), Dr Steve Schutzer (Encore! EP294), Lisa Trumble, Jeb Dunkelberger, Dr Ian Tong, Mike Schneider, Peter Hayes, Paul Simms, Dr Steven Quimby, Dr David Carmouche (EP343), Christin Deacon, Gary Campbell, Kristin Begley, David Contorno (AEE17), David Contorno (EP339), Nikki King, Olivia Webb, Brandon Weber, Stacey Richter (INBW30), Brian Klepper (AEE16), Brian Klepper (EP335), Sunita Desai, Care Plans vs Real World (EP333), Dr Tony DiGioia, Al Lewis, John Marchica, Joe Connolly, Marshall Allen  

The Daily Crime
"He was found so far from his car"

The Daily Crime

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 6, 2022 18:52


The night before Thanksgiving in 2016, high school senior Thomas Brown went missing near Canadian, Texas. His body was found two years later, but multiple investigations have not been able to determine how he died. Reporter Niccole Caan has been covering the story for KENS 5 in San Antonio, Texas. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Raise Your Game Show with Alan Stein, Jr.
Season 11, Episode 5: Anthony Trucks

Raise Your Game Show with Alan Stein, Jr.

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 5, 2022 31:03


Are you a parent (or coach) of a youth or high school athlete?If so, you need to read The Sideline: A Survival Guide for Youth Sports ParentsThis book has one goal: to help you navigate the often tricky and confusing world of youth sports to ensure your child has the most meaningful and memorable experience possible.Books are now available for sale! We have a feeling our first print run will sell out by Thanksgiving, so please reserve your copy as soon as you can.Order your copy today!We will soon offer two alternate covers (hardwood floor for basketball/volleyball and a home plate for baseball/softball) as we've had numerous organizations show interest in purchasing a copy for every parent and coach their coach in their program. We also have the ability to customize covers and add your school/club/organization's logo!If you know of any program who may be interested in a customized bulk order, please have them reach out to me directly (Alan@AlanSteinJr.com).And for those of you that don't have child in youth or high school sports, if you know someone that does, this would make the ideal holiday gift.Thank you for the early support, we appreciate your help in making the youth sports landscape a more enriching environment!

Know Your Enemy
UNLOCKED: Freud and Politics (w/ Pat Blanchfield)

Know Your Enemy

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2022 98:52


Unlocked by popular demand: Psychoanalytic writer and teacher Pat Blanchfield joins Sam for a discussion of Freud and politics. Together we ask: how can psychoanalytic tools help us make sense of our irrational political moment, our desires and attachments, as well as conservatism, liberalism, fascism, Donald Trump, and even Thanksgiving? If we've done our job right, you'll derive many blistering insights from this discussion whether or not you've read a single page of Sigmund Freud — or remotely buy into his theories of mind, culture, or clinical practice. (And hopefully we didn't talk too fast.) Because Freud would disapprove of any injunction to enjoyment, we'll simply say: "have a listen, if you please."(Originally published on Patreon 12/01/2021.)Further Reading/Listening:KYE Episode 7: "Gun Power" (w/ Pat Blanchfield)Pat Blanchfield, "Kyle Rittenhouse is an American," Gawker, Nov 16, 2021Adam Phillips, Becoming Freud: The Making of a Psychoanalyst, Yale Press, Mar 22, 2016.Peter Gay, Freud: A Life For Our Time (1988)Jacqueline Rose, "To Die One's Own Death," LRB, Nov 19, 2020...and don't forget to subscribe to Know Your Enemy on Patreon for access to all of our bonus episodes!

Death in the West
Episode 1: The Taking of United Flight 855

Death in the West

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2022 38:14


In episode one, we meet Richard Floyd McCoy Jr., a Mormon Sunday school teacher and Vietnam veteran who friends said had become obsessed with skyjacking and D.B. Cooper in the months after Cooper's famous crime, committed during Thanksgiving weekend, 1971. By April 1972, McCoy's fascination led him to his own skyjacking--a caper that bore striking resemblances to what Cooper had pulled off, but had a very different outcome.

The Uncurated Life Podcast
143 | New Year's Hot Takes

The Uncurated Life Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2022 8:29


It's the New Year, and I'm coming in hot with some… hot takes. Well, some might be lukewarm takes, but I wanted to share them anyway. DISCLAIMER Colorful words may be used. don't be alarmed. NEWSLETTER https://view.flodesk.com/pages/61525a85337f1c2aacf52f6d Etsy Shop is open! https://www.etsy.com/shop/CGBPrints FIND ME ON ALL THE THINGS Patreon - https://www.patreon.com/cindyguentertbaldo YouTube - https://youtube.com/c/CindyGuentertBaldo Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/llamaletters/ Discord - https://discord.gg/Rwpp7Ww Pinterest - https://www.pinterest.com/llamaletters/ Website - www.cindyguentertbaldo.com STUFF I MENTIONED Inquiries - cindy@cindyguentertbaldo.com   TRANSCRIPTION Hello friends today is going to be a fun, little quick episode for the beginning of the new year, because it's just that time of year. And I actually have a lot of heavier topics that will be coming up soon, but I thought that today's episode would be more fun if I just kicked it off with a quick little bullshit episode.   And that is going to be my five hot takes about new years. The new year, season new year's everything. And before we get started, just to let you know, this is the uncurated life. My name is Cindy . Introductions introductions, introductions, where I talk about our lives, how we live them, especially on the internet.   Love to have you here, if this is your first time, and this is not your first time, fucking thanks for coming back. My guys. So let's jump right into it. Five hot takes surrounding the new year. Resolutions, all that shit hot take number one. I hate the terms, wellness and eat clean so very much. And I swear to God.   It's already getting something, getting bombarded across social media at me. I hate them much like the word authentic to me. I feel like they have lost all of their meaning. I think wellness feels like a copy paste to go in and replace the word diet and everything. Now it's like the same stuff. Just different language.   I think that eat clean. Is, uh, it's like also like getting rid of toxins is a bullshit term. Like what the fuck is eating clean mean? Like what does it really mean? Because people have different ideas. So that's my hot tick that I hate those words so much, so much. They make my eyebrow Twitch and I will be excited when the new years hustle and bustle is over.   And that shit mellows out. B to B be tuned, stay tuned because I will be doing some episodes coming up on what I think is toxic wellness culture, hot take number two, staying up until midnight on new year's Eve sucks. Total ass. Now I know I used to do when I was. 'cause you didn't get to stay up till midnight.   Very often. I think the first time I really was over, it was 2000, the 1999 to 2002 new year's Eve. The Y2K thing, we were all convinced the world was going to end at the time I was working as a bagger at a grocery. While still in college and people went, they just, they lost their shit over the Y2K shit and they bought the water and the canned goods and everything.   And I worked an 11 to eight shift that day. Exhausted trying to keep up with the number of people shopping because they thought the world was going to fucking end at midnight before year 2000. So the next day I was scheduled to work a seven to four shift. And when I got home, I was living with four other people.   Boyfriends and everything else. And they were all gonna stay up and have like a party and like, yeah, check out the world ends. And they're like sitting here and you going to stay up with us and I'm like, no, I'm going to go to bed. I am tired. But what if the world ends? I'm like, I'll find out in the morning when I wake up to go to work motherfuckers.   And since then, I swear to God, like I may have had times where I've wanted to stay up. Especially if I went to a party, I've even hosted some new year's Eve parties, but to be perfectly honest, I am too fucking old to stay up that late. I want to go to bed at 10:00 PM and. When I go to bed at 10 it's midnight, somewhere we're in mountain time.   It's midnight on the east coast. When I go to bed at 10. It's good enough for me, man. I'll take number three. I both really dislike having an arbitrary date for setting goals and resolutions. And I also really love the feeling around new year's and setting goals and resolutions and that daikon. Pisses me off, like part of me is like, oh, it's an arbitrary date.   And the other part of me is like, fuck. Yeah, I love the arbitrary date. And I can't decide which one is, which it's kind of how I feel when I make some consumerism videos. And I'm like, oh my God, don't buy all the things. Oh my God. Buy all the things. And deep down, I can tell it's like the duality of man and the duality of man around the arbitrary date of new year's for some reason.   Fry's mine, ARDS, and I don't know why I can't figure out why I can't just be okay with one course or the other. I don't know, man, but my hot take is that both the arbitrary date sucks and the arbitrary date is great. And I don't really know the answer to that question. That's my hot take hot take number four.   I don't even know if this is a hot take so much, but bear with me. I'm convinced that. The whole new year season, right from like the start of the holiday season through like February, right. Is two planner companies, as well as diet and exercise companies. What Valentine's day and Halloween are two candy companies.   Would we be as excited to set goals on January 1st? If we weren't marketed to so heavily, would we be so excited to let's wellness eat clean on January 1st? If we weren't marketed to so heavily, what came first? The resolutions or the marketing? I'm sure there's probably a way to find that out, but like just in general, like I play right into it.   I fucking love this. I have videos going up. You go back to the last week and a half on my YouTube channel and it's all sorts of goals and every. Like I'm right there with the rest of you. But the, the part of me that kind of sits up in my back of my brain and like the same one that struggles with the duality of man about everything else, right.   Sits there and is like, but Cindy, would this be as exciting to you if there weren't so many products coming out, geared towards this? Who knows? I don't know, but my hot take. Maybe that's the case, and I'm still going to go along with it just as I'm still going to go eat the shit out of some Halloween candy.   And I'm not really a big fan of Valentine's day, but I am a big fan of all of the extra chocolate that comes out. So I dunno, I don't know. Maybe the world may never know. And high-tech number five. There is nothing wrong with keeping your Christmas lights up and your tree up until February. Not just because you might be lazy, but because that shit is cozy to me, one of the biggest benefits of having an artificial tree is you can leave it up as long as you want to.   Now, we actually know some people in our family who keep a tree up all year, not decorated, just the lights, because they like the whole. I don't think I would go that far for myself personally, because I think that there is a specialness that comes to when you get all the lights out and everything that like adds that coziness.   And I wonder if I kept them up all year inside the house that it might start to just become background noise to me, but keeping it up until February. Fuck. Yeah. And I also, I guess this is the same hot take, but just sort of continuing on with it is that people who. Judge other people for keeping lights on their house year round can suck my Dick because a putting those up as annoying B, does it really matter all that much?   And see maybe some people like having their lights that maybe they want to light their house up all year. You don't know. So just mind your business, but I will say, I will say that for me. Generally speaking, a big part of this is not just the coziness, but also the laziness. So there is that, but heartache, yes.   I don't know how much of a hot tech this is. I know some people are like, no Christmas lights up until after Thanksgiving. And some people are like, oh, but you must take it down by new year's. And for me. Keep him up as long as you want to, because they're fun. So those are my hot takes for the new year. If you have a hot take surrounding new years and all of the stuff kind of going with it, make sure to post it on Instagram stories and tag me at Lama letters so that I can see it.   I'd love to see your hot takes because I'm big fan of the hot takes. Make sure you also think my patrons or check out my Patrion. If you're interested as they are the sponsors of this podcast and they make my hot takes possible, you can check out www.patreon.com/cindyguentertbaldo to find out more next week is probably going to be a heavier topic.   So this, this was a light one. I hope you enjoyed it. And until next time my friends have a great week and peace out.