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Hvor står konflikten mellem USA og Kina? Det spørgsmål stiller Rune Lykkeberg i denne uge til Barack Obamas tidligere Kina-rådgiver, den amerikanske forfatter og professor Evan S. Medeiros --- Hvor står konflikten mellem USA og Kina? Der er tale om en konkurrencesituation, som hele tiden forekommer at intensiveres – men hvor er den på vej hen? Det spørgsmål er der næppe nogen bedre til at svare på end den amerikanske forfatter og professor Evan S. Medeiros, der igennem otte år var rådgiver for Barack Obama – de sidste to med særligt fokus netop på Kina. Evan Medeiros er født og opvokset i USA. Han startede med at læse analytisk filosofi, men skiftede siden til kinesisk og skrev efterfølgende ph.d. om internationale relationer på Cambridge University. I dag er han professor på Georgetown University og forfatter til adskillige bøger, herunder antologien Cold Rivals fra 2023, hvor førende eksperter – herunder Medeiros selv – analyserer de voksende spændinger i forholdet mellem USA og Kina, og hvad de betyder for fremtiden. Ifølge Medeiros afhænger USA's fremtid i høj grad af, hvordan man i Washington håndterer forholdet til Beijing de kommende år. Hvis amerikanerne ønsker fremgang og respekt i verden, må de udvise større omtanke i konkurrencen med Kina, mener han. I løbet af deres samtale når Medeiros og Lykkeberg omkring de historiske rødder for den årtier lange rivalisering – lige fra Nixon og Kissinger over Obama og Biden og frem til Trumps tarif- og toldpolitik i dag. Men de ender i lyset. For konkurrencen med Kina behøver ikke at udvikle sig til en ny kold krig, mener Medeiros. I hvert fald så længe amerikanerne viser tilbageholdenhed og lederskab. Gør de ikke det, kan det til gengæld blive rigtig farligt.
Fiona S. Cunningham, assistant professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss China's expanding nuclear weapons program and the likelihood of an arms race with the United States. Mentioned on the Podcast Fiona S. Cunningham, “Cooperation Under Asymmetry? The Future of U.S.-China Nuclear Relations,” The Washington Quarterly Fiona S. Cunningham, “Strategic Substitution: China's Search for Coercive Leverage in the Information Age,” International Security M. Taylor Fravel, Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949 M. Taylor Fravel and Evan S. Medeiros, “China's Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure [PDF],” International Security For an episode transcript and show notes, visit us at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/chinas-nuclear-forces-fiona-s-cunningham This episode first aired: February 28, 2023
Fiona S. Cunningham, assistant professor of political science at the University of Pennsylvania, sits down with James M. Lindsay to discuss China's expanding nuclear weapons program and the likelihood of an arms race with the United States. Mentioned on the Podcast Fiona S. Cunningham, “Cooperation Under Asymmetry? The Future of U.S.-China Nuclear Relations,” The Washington Quarterly Fiona S. Cunningham, “Strategic Substitution: China's Search for Coercive Leverage in the Information Age,” International Security Taylor Fravel, Active Defense: China's Military Strategy Since 1949 Taylor Fravel and Evan S. Medeiros, “China's Search for Assured Retaliation: The Evolution of Chinese Nuclear Strategy and Force Structure [PDF],” International Security For an episode transcript and show notes, visit us at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/chinas-nuclear-forces-fiona-s-cunningham
On this episode of the Tea Leaves Podcast, Dr. Evan S. Medeiros provided his unique insight into the state of U.S.-China relations following the Chinese surveillance balloon incident, why the incident matters, and the outlook for re-engagement. Dr. Medeiros and Rexon also explored how China's domestic economic imperatives are shaping its foreign policy, expectations for the upcoming Two Sessions parliamentary meetings, how Washington can use its diplomatic and economic leverage over Beijing, and more. Dr. Medeiros is the Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a Senior Advisor at The Asia Group. Dr. Medeiros served on the National Security Council for six years under U.S. President Barack Obama, first as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, and then as President Obama's top advisor for U.S. policy in Asia.
Dr. Evan S. Medeiros is Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a Senior Advisor at The Asia Group. Dr. Medeiros served on the National Security Council for six years under U.S. President Barack Obama, first as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, and then as President Obama's top advisor for U.S. policy in Asia. Combining expertise as a scholar of Chinese politics with first-hand experience at the height of U.S. China policy, Evan reflected on several critical issues in U.S.-China relations: U.S. President Joe Biden's China strategy, Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership and rising nationalism in China, balancing interdependence and escalating risks in the bilateral relationship, and the outlook for engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders.
Dr. Evan S. Medeiros is Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a Senior Advisor at The Asia Group. Dr. Medeiros served on the National Security Council for six years under U.S. President Barack Obama, first as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, and then as President Obama's top advisor for U.S. policy in Asia. Combining expertise as a scholar of Chinese politics with first-hand experience at the height of U.S. China policy, Evan reflected on several critical issues in U.S.-China relations: U.S. President Joe Biden's China strategy, Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership and rising nationalism in China, balancing interdependence and escalating risks in the bilateral relationship, and the outlook for engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders.
Dr. Evan S. Medeiros is Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a Senior Advisor at The Asia Group. Dr. Medeiros served on the National Security Council for six years under U.S. President Barack Obama, first as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, and then as President Obama's top advisor for U.S. policy in Asia. Combining expertise as a scholar of Chinese politics with first-hand experience at the height of U.S. China policy, Evan reflected on several critical issues in U.S.-China relations: U.S. President Joe Biden's China strategy, Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership and rising nationalism in China, balancing interdependence and escalating risks in the bilateral relationship, and the outlook for engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders.
Dr. Evan S. Medeiros is Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a Senior Advisor at The Asia Group. Dr. Medeiros served on the National Security Council for six years under U.S. President Barack Obama, first as Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, and then as President Obama's top advisor for U.S. policy in Asia. Combining expertise as a scholar of Chinese politics with first-hand experience at the height of U.S. China policy, Evan reflected on several critical issues in U.S.-China relations: U.S. President Joe Biden's China strategy, Chinese President Xi Jinping's leadership and rising nationalism in China, balancing interdependence and escalating risks in the bilateral relationship, and the outlook for engagement between U.S. and Chinese leaders.
The risks of conflict between the United States and China are real and growing. This situation has left the U.S.-China relationship in a precarious place that will require delicate diplomacy in order to manage intensifying competition while preventing conflict. Panelists discuss “Major Power Rivalry in East Asia,” a paper by Evan S. Medeiros in the Managing Global Disorder discussion paper series, on how U.S. and Chinese policymakers should revitalize existing tools and build new ones to manage an increasingly militarized competition. Additional Resources For further reading, please see CPA's Managing Global Disorder series.
In the third episode of our podcast miniseries, China in the Middle East, Jon Alterman explores China’s security interests in the Middle East. Jon also talks to Dean Cheng, Evan Medeiros, and Andrew Scobell about China’s current security capacity in the region, and how China is using a blend of military, economic, and technological capacities to advance China’s interest in stability and security in the region. China in the Middle East is a six-part miniseries that is part of our regular series podcast, Babel: Translating the Middle East. We release new episodes every Tuesday. Dean Cheng, Middle East Lessons for China: Internal Stability, The Heritage Foundation, March 21, 2011. Evan S. Medeiros, The Changing Fundamentals of US-China Relations, The Washington Quarterly, October 11, 2019. Andrew Scobell and Alireza Nader, China in the Middle East: The Wary Dragon, RAND Corporation, December 5, 2016.
The U.S.-China relationship is clearly undergoing a transformation: after 40 years of normalized diplomatic relations, the status quo no longer seems acceptable to either side. One of the largest shifts has been the emergence of strategic issues as a greater factor in bilateral interactions. Dr. Evan S. Medeiros of Georgetown University explains this ‘securitization’ of the relationship, how it affects trade and diplomacy, and whether it represents a long-term trend. Evan S. Medeiros is the Penner Family Chair in Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. Until June 2015, Dr. Medeiros served as special assistant to President Barack Obama and senior director for Asian Affairs at the National Security Council (NSC), responsible for coordinating U.S. policy toward the Asia-Pacific across the areas of diplomacy, defense, economics, and intelligence affairs. He joined the NSC staff in summer 2009 as director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian affairs and was actively involved in U.S.-China relations throughout his NSC tenure, including by developing the initial proposal for the Sunnyland's Summit, planning the president's 2014 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, and managing numerous other high-level U.S.-China interactions. In recent years, Dr. Medeiros advised multinational companies on Asia in his role as managing director practice head for Asia at Eurasia Group, the global political risk consultancy. Prior to joining the White House, Dr. Medeiros also worked for seven years as a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. From 2007 to 2008, he also served as policy advisor to Secretary Hank Paulson working on the U.S.-China Strategic Economic Dialogue at the Treasury Department. Dr. Medeiros currently serves on the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations’ Board of Directors and is a fellow in its Public Intellectuals Program.