Podcasts about us china

Josh Rogin examines whether the US-China rivalry is a new Cold War and how the CCP enforces its political agenda on American companies like the NBA through exported censorship. 5

Josh Rogin explores the politicized investigation into COVID-19's origins at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and characterizes the US-China confrontation as a long-term generational struggle. 81905 shanghai

Donald Trump has never thought very highly of Africa, famously referring to the continent as a place of "sh**hole countries." While there's no indication that sentiment has changed, he's recognized that African resources are essential if he wants the U.S. to decouple from Chinese dominanted critical mineral supply chains. In February, the administration unveiled an ambitious new critical minerals sourcing initiative in which African countries, in particular, play an outsized role. But the Chinese have a 20+ year head start sourcing and refining these minerals and metals, so displacing them is not going to be easy. For some perspective on this burgeoning U.S.-China rivalry, Eric & Géraud are joined by two of the top editors at the online news site Semafor. Yinka Adegoke is Semafor's Africa Editor, and Andy Browne is the outlet's Managing Editor, who will oversee Semafor's new China newsletter.

After years of closed borders, North Korea reopened to a small number of foreign visitors.Johan Nylander entered as one of the first in years — to run the Pyongyang Marathon.Johan is an award-winning Asia correspondent and author whose work has appeared in CNN, National Geographic, Forbes, Nikkei Asia, and Sweden's leading business daily Dagens Industri. He has reported from the frontlines of the US–China trade war and written bestselling books including Shenzhen Superstars, The Epic Split, and The Wolf Economy Awakens. Colleagues have described him as “a guardian of free speech” and one of the most compelling storytellers covering Asia today.At 52, he chose one of the most restricted starting lines on Earth.The deeper story begins earlier. After years of high-stress reporting across Asia, Johan found himself physically depleted and mentally stretched thin. Watching the Hong Kong Marathon from the sidelines — barely able to run a kilometer — he made a decision. The following year, he ran his first marathon.Training became structure. Structure became momentum.Living between the mountains of Hong Kong's outer islands and one of the world's densest cities, he rebuilt himself mile by mile.Then came North Korea.Running through Pyongyang placed him inside a rare historical moment — moving through a country defined by control, discipline, and spectacle. The experience sharpened his understanding of movement, agency, and freedom.In this episode, we explore:Running the Pyongyang Marathon inside North KoreaBecoming one of the first foreign visitors back in the countryStarting endurance sport in his fiftiesRebuilding resilience after burnoutCovering geopolitics while cultivating personal freedomJohan has spent his career documenting global power.In North Korea, he stepped onto a different kind of frontline — one measured in miles.---

February 17, 2026Have you had your dose of The Daily MoJo today? Download the APP HERE"The Smell Of Napalm! | The Daily MoJo Ep:021726"The content covers a range of topics from geopolitical issues like Taiwan's role in US-China relations to personal anecdotes about aging and media nostalgia. It discusses Ghislaine Maxwell's legal troubles, technical challenges with SSDs, and societal perceptions of mental health and identity. The dialogue blends humor with serious commentary, reflecting on personal experiences and broader societal narratives.Phil Bell's Morning Update - Where's the tariff talk?:  HEREAllThingsTrains.comAllThingsTrainsPhil on X: HEREDan Andros - host of The QuickStart Podcast and Managing Editor at CBN.com - Makes an excellent point about the drawbacks of ChatGPT.FaithwireCBN NewsYouTubeOur affiliate partners:EMP Shield - Figuring out the odds of a devastating EMP attack on the United States is impossible, but as with any disaster, the chances are NOT ZERO, and could happen any day. This decade has proven that the weird and unexpected is right around the corner. Be prepared - protect your home, vehicle, even your generator - with EMP Shield. You'll save money and protect what's important at the same time!ProtectMyMoJo.com Be prepared! Not scared. Need some Ivermection? Some Hydroxychloroquine? Don't have a doctor who fancies your crazy ideas? We have good news - Dr. Stella Immanuel has teamed up with The Daily MoJo to keep you healthy and happy all year long! Not only can she provide you with those necessary prophylactics, but StellasMoJo.com has plenty of other things to keep you and your body in tip-top shape. Use Promo Code: DailyMoJo to save $$Take care of your body - it's the only one you'll get and it's your temple! We've partnered with Sugar Creek Goods to help you care for yourself in an all-natural way. And in this case, "all natural" doesn't mean it doesn't work! Save 15% on your order with promo code "DailyMojo" at SmellMyMoJo.comCBD is almost everywhere you look these days, so the answer isn't so much where can you get it, it's more about - where can you get the CBD products that actually work!? Certainly, NOT at the gas station! Patriots Relief says it all in the name, and you can save an incredible 40% with the promo code "DailyMojo" at GetMoJoCBD.com!Romika Designs is an awesome American small business that specializes in creating laser-engraved gifts and awards for you, your family, and your employees. Want something special for someone special? Find exactly what you want at MoJoLaserPros.com  There have been a lot of imitators, but there's only OG – American Pride Roasters Coffee. It was first and remains the best roaster of fine coffee beans from around the world. You like coffee? You'll love American Pride – from the heart of the heartland – Des Moines, Iowa. AmericanPrideRoasters.com   Find great deals on American-made products at MoJoMyPillow.com. Mike Lindell – a true patriot in our eyes – puts his money where his mouth (and products) is/are. Find tremendous deals at MoJoMyPillow.com – Promo Code: MoJo50  Life gets messy – sometimes really messy. Be ready for the next mess with survival food and tools from My Patriot Supply. A 25 year shelf life and fantastic variety are just the beginning of the long list of reasons to get your emergency rations at PrepareWithMoJo50.comStay ConnectedWATCH The Daily Mojo LIVE 7-9a CT: www.TheDailyMojo.com Rumble: HEREOr just LISTEN:The Daily MoJo ChannelBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-daily-mojo-with-brad-staggs--3085897/support.

In this episode of the China Desk Podcast, host Steve Yates speaks with Indo-Pacific expert Cleo Paskal about China's growing influence across the Pacific Islands and why the region is central to U.S. national security. The conversation explores geopolitical competition in Oceania, corruption and political warfare, Taiwan diplomacy, Guam's strategic role, and how Chinese economic projects intersect with military strategy. Paskal breaks down the “3.5-tier” framework for understanding Pacific Island priorities and explains why Americans should pay closer attention to the region's strategic importance. Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW

The Donald Trump administration has imposed an extreme oil blockade to prevent Cuba from getting fuel from any country. Marco Rubio wants to collapse the economy, causing millions of civilians to starve and suffer in order to overthrow the revolutionary Cuban government. Ben Norton explains the monstrous history of US imperialism and its siege of Cuba. VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ykeYsIRqKQ Topics 0:00 US oil blockade of Cuba 1:09 USA starves Cuban women & children 2:23 Interview with Cuban mother 3:57 Far-right Miami Congress members 4:40 Shutting down Cuba's free universities 5:41 US blockade is illegal 6:06 Trump threatens tariffs on oil sellers 6:40 US empire attacks international law 7:48 US war on Cuban Revolution 8:08 Goal: "Hunger, desperation, & overthrow" 9:29 Trump's war on Cuba 10:25 (CLIP) Marco Rubio wants regime change 10:58 Marco Rubio, warmonger in chief 12:42 Miami Mafia wants to exploit Cuba 13:16 Narco Rubio's links to drugs 15:12 Trump admin attacks Cuba 16:13 Trump executive order on Cuba 17:05 Monroe to Donroe Doctrine 17:57 Russia vows to send Cuba oil 18:43 USA seizes oil tankers 19:26 (CLIP) Trump vows to steal oil tankers 20:09 China supports Cuba 21:30 US-China trade 22:01 Will Brazil help Cuba? 22:34 Mexico is in a tough spot 23:35 US attack on Venezuela 24:26 World opposes US embargo (UN votes) 26:12 US threatens secondary sanctions 27:28 How the embargo works 29:24 Gains of the Cuban Revolution 30:56 Extremist Miami Congress members 31:36 US politicians call to asphyxiate Cuba 32:06 US corporate colonization 33:33 US imperialism 34:24 Outro

Abhi Mahajan (@owlposting) explains how AI is reshaping biology and medicine, including foundation models to predict cancer treatment response and why he's both skeptical and optimistic about current results. Helen Toner unpacks CSET's “When AI Builds AI” report and why automated AI R&D is a major source of strategic surprise. Jeremie Harris then explores our lack of control over superhuman AI systems, fragile US–China coordination, and how to maintain situational awareness in a rapidly shifting landscape. Use the Granola Recipe Nathan relies on to identify blind spots across conversations, AI research, and decisions: https://recipes.granola.ai/r/4c1a6b10-5ac5-4920-884c-4fd606aa4f53 LINKS: Abhi Mahajan's Owl Posting site Heuristics for lab robotics article Deep Research on Noetik AI Sponsors: GovAI: GovAI was founded ten years ago on the belief that AI would end up transforming our world. Ten years later, the organization is at the forefront of trying to help decision-makers in government and industry navigate the transition to advanced AI.  GovAI is now hiring Research Scholars (one-year positions for those transitioning into AI policy) and Research Fellows (longer-term roles for experienced researchers). Both roles offer significant freedom to pursue policy research, advise decision-makers, or launch new initiatives. Applications close 15 February 2026. Apply at: https://www.governance.ai/opportunities Blitzy: Blitzy is the autonomous code generation platform that ingests millions of lines of code to accelerate enterprise software development by up to 5x with premium, spec-driven output. Schedule a strategy session with their AI solutions consultants at https://blitzy.com Tasklet: Tasklet is an AI agent that automates your work 24/7; just describe what you want in plain English and it gets the job done. Try it for free and use code COGREV for 50% off your first month at https://tasklet.ai Serval: Serval uses AI-powered automations to cut IT help desk tickets by more than 50%, freeing your team from repetitive tasks like password resets and onboarding. Book your free pilot and guarantee 50% help desk automation by week four at https://serval.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing

Xi Van Fleet grew up in China during Mao Zedong's Cultural Revolution. She was too young to be a real revolutionary Red Guard, but old enough to observe the astonishing scenes of violence and ideological fervor around her during those terrible years.I sat down with her to discuss her new book, “Made in America: The Hidden History of How the U.S. Enabled Communist China and Created Our Greatest Threat.”She says she felt compelled to write this book to help Americans understand the true nature of communism. Over the past hundred years or so, the United States has made one grave mistake after another because of this major blind spot, she says.In our deep-dive interview, Van Fleet takes me on a tour of China's history starting in the late 19th century and explains how America—over and over again—made decisions that helped the Chinese Communist Party: first to gain influence, then to defeat the Nationalists led by Chiang Kai-shek, and eventually to rescue the CCP from certain collapse in the 1970s.By visiting Beijing and re-opening US-China relations at a time when China's economy was in shambles, President Richard Nixon effectively “saved the CCP from the ruins,” she says.The history of how the United States helped the CCP survive is “hidden history,” as she calls it, one that is not taught in the schools and not discussed publicly: “A lot of people want to hide it. But in order for us to understand, we have to learn this very, very important piece of history that my book is all about.”Views expressed in this video are opinions of the host and the guest, and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.

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I'm very excited to have on Rory Truex as my guest for today's episode. Rory is Associate Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. His research focuses on Chinese politics and authoritarian systems, and his work has been published in the American Political Science Review, British Journal of Political Science, The China Quarterly and many more. He has been featured in The Atlantic, The Washington Post, The Hill, South China Morning Post, and The New York Times. He is also the host of The Civic Forum Podcast, a weekly public speaker series on democracy featuring leading scholars and practitioners.We talk the decline in funding for China related research grants in the US, the role of the government and individual institutions in creating a productive and protective relationship with China, and the golden age of China studies (and if it's possible to ever get back there).Read the working paper hereCheck out The Civic Forum hereBuy book club books hereBuy me a coffeeLatest Substack postSupport the showSign up for Buzzsprout to launch your podcasting journey: https://www.buzzsprout.com/?referrer_id=162442Subscribe to the Sinobabble Newsletter: https://sinobabble.substack.com/Support Sinobabble on Buy me a Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/Sinobabblepod

In this episode of Decouple, Chris sits down with Kyle Chan of the High Capacity Substack to unpack what “AI with Chinese characteristics” actually means. Rather than framing artificial intelligence as a simple US–China race to AGI, they explore how each country is building AI inside very different institutional systems. The conversation covers DeepSeek, compute constraints, quantization, and the surprising reality that many Chinese AI labs operate with far less capital than their American counterparts while still publishing at the frontier.They dig into China's AI enabling stack, from universities and state-backed labs to energy buildout and the Western Data, Eastern Compute strategy, and examine how AI is being embedded into manufacturing, logistics, grid management, and public services as a tool of state capacity. The discussion also tackles regulatory differences, CCP oversight, training data controls, and the disciplining of China's tech sector, alongside contrasts with US AI development shaped by venture capital, platform economics, and liability management. This is a deep dive into how institutions shape technology, and why the real story may not be who wins the race, but how AI is absorbed into two very different political economies.Listen to Decouple on:• Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6PNr3ml8nEQotWWavE9kQz• Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/decouple/id1516526694?uo=4• Overcast: https://overcast.fm/itunes1516526694/decouple• Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/ehbfrn44• RSS: https://anchor.fm/s/23775178/podcast/rssWebsite: https://www.decouple.media

Cisco president and CPO Jeetu Patel speaks with a16z cofounder Marc Andreessen about why AI may finally break a 50-year productivity slump—and what's at stake if America doesn't win the race. They discuss where value will accrue in the AI stack, why open source complicates the US-China competition, and what's blowing Andreessen's mind right now. Resources:Follow Marc Andreessen on X:  https://twitter.com/pmarcaFollow Jeetu Patel on X: https://twitter.com/jpatel41 Stay Updated:If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!Find a16z on X: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zListen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXListen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see http://a16z.com/disclosures.     Stay Updated:Find a16z on XFind a16z on LinkedInListen to the a16z Show on SpotifyListen to the a16z Show on Apple PodcastsFollow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

When the U.S. Development Finance Corporation (DFC) was launched in 2019, a big part of its mandate from Congress was to counter China's Belt and Road Initiative. That sentiment was a key theme on Capitol Hill late last year during the DFC's Congressional reauthorization, when lawmakers from both parties made urgent appeals for the agency to do more to challenge China in the Global South. Congress nearly tripled the DRC's budget from $60 billion to $205 billion to be used over the next five years. While that is a substantial increase, it's just a small fraction of what Chinese entities spend each year on BRI projects. Karthik Sankaran and Dan Ford, researchers at the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., join Eric to discuss why they contend it's a bad idea for the DFC to compete head-on with China, rather than focus on its original mandate to build market capacity in poorer nations.

00:00 Intro01:23 U.S.–China Relations Juggle Goodwill and Friction03:09 Trump–Xi Talk Puts Taiwan Budget Deadlock Back in Spotlight05:24 Mysterious China-Linked Bio Labs Found in U.S. Cities08:25 Backyard Labs Could Pose Bioweapon Threat: Philipp10:15 Vegas Lab Seizure May Reveal What Reedley Could Not13:16 Smuggled Pathogens, Secret Labs Spark U.S. Security Fears14:39 Trump: U.S. Would Secure Diego Garcia Base if Threatened15:34 Sen. Kennedy to UK: Sell Chagos Islands to the U.S.16:11 Key U.S.–Russia Nuclear Treaty Expires16:54 Panama Rejects China Threats Over Key Canal Ports18:10 Waymo Faces Lawmaker Scrutiny Over Chinese-Made Cars19:42 Hearing: China Spends Billions to Suppress Faith

There is a lot going on in the markets this week from 45Z and biofuels news to US/China relations, the Greeley, CO JBS plant strike potential and much more. Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, joins us to discuss the week in the markets and Friday's trade action in our Midday Commentary.

President Xi Jinping talked with United States President Donald Trump by phone on Wednesday, saying that he stands ready to continue working with his US counterpart to guide the giant ship of China-US ties through wind and waves for a steady voyage in the new year, and do more big, good things together.While the US side has its concerns, and the Chinese side has its own concerns as well, solutions can be found to address each other's concerns as long as both sides move toward each other in the spirit of equality, respect and mutual benefit, Xi said.The phone conversation was the first interaction between the two leaders in 2026. In the past year, Xi and Trump held four phone calls and exchanged multiple messages, and the two leaders also met successfully in Busan, South Korea, in October.Xi said that this year, both China and the US have a number of important agendas.While China is entering the first year of its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period, the US will mark the 250th anniversary of its founding, he noted, adding that the two countries will also respectively host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders' Meeting and the Group of 20 Summit.Xi said that the two sides should act on the common understandings they have reached, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences and expand practical cooperation.Citing an ancient Chinese adage that "an act of kindness, no matter how trivial, is worth performing, while an act of evil, no matter how small, must be shunned", Xi called on China and the US to work through things step by step and constantly build mutual trust to forge the right way of getting along with each other.The two countries can make 2026 a year in which China and the US, as two major countries, move toward mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, Xi said.Regarding the Taiwan question, Xi told Trump that it is the most important issue in China-US relations.The Taiwan region is part of China's territory, and China must safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and will never allow Taiwan to be separated from the country, Xi said, urging the US to handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with utmost prudence.After the phone call, Trump wrote in a social media posting that he had "just completed an excellent telephone conversation with President Xi of China. It was a long and thorough call", and many important subjects were discussed.Trump said in the phone call that the US and China are both great countries, and the US-China relationship is by far the most important in the world.He noted that he has a great relationship with President Xi and that he has a lot of respect for him. Under the guidance of the two leaders, the US and China are doing well in the areas of economy and trade, Trump said.Trump said he wants to see China succeed, and the US would like to work with China to make more progress in bilateral ties.The US president said he understands how China feels about the Taiwan question, adding that he would like the two sides to continue talking with each other and keep the relationship in good shape during his presidency.practical cooperation /ˈpræktɪkəl koʊˌɑːpəˈreɪʃən/务实合作peaceful coexistence /ˈpiːsfəl ˌkoʊɪɡˈzɪstəns/和平共处win-win cooperation /ˌwɪn ˈwɪn koʊˌɑːpəˈreɪʃən/合作共赢national sovereignty /ˈnæʃnəl ˈsɑːvrənti/国家主权APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting /ˈeɪpek ˌiːkəˈnɑːmɪk ˈliːdərz/亚太经合组织领导人会议G20 Summit /ˌdʒiː ˈtwenti ˈsʌmɪt/二十国集团峰会

Tonight's BizNews Briefing unpacks the gold and silver whipsaw, with Peter Major pointing to Chinese margin rule changes as the core trigger. It then tracks signs of US-China stabilisation, examines South Africa's tax and exchange-control headaches for emigrants, and closes with Cathie Wood's latest read on where global investment flows are heading in 2026.

This week on Sinica, I speak with Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at Brookings and one of the most clear-eyed analysts of the U.S.-China relationship working today. Ryan was director for China at the NSC during the Obama Administration.As Donald Trump moves through his second year in office, the bilateral relationship has defied easy characterization. The once-dominant language of great power competition has receded, China hawks have been sidelined, and Trump's personalistic approach—marked by praise for Xi Jinping and a willingness to bracket ideological disputes—represents a sharp departure from recent Washington orthodoxy.Ryan has just published an essay laying out three plausible pathways for the relationship under Trump: a soft landing, a hard split, or what he considers most likely—a period of uneasy calm in which both sides seek stability not out of trust, but out of mutual constraint. We discuss Trump's apparent strategy, the vibe shift in American attitudes, Beijing's choice between managing Trump versus managing uncertainty, the critical importance of Xi's planned April visit, and whether we're headed toward genuine stabilization or just buying time before the next collision.5:24 – Trump's approach: respect for Xi, military deterrence, and the rare earths constraint8:03 – The vibe shift and Trump's “reptilian feel” for American exhaustion with confrontation10:52 – Three scenarios: soft landing, hard split, or uneasy calm through mutual constraint16:30 – Beijing's bet: managing Trump versus managing whoever comes next26:46 – Economic interdependence and why decoupling is like “separating egg whites from a scrambled egg”37:12 – The April visit as a critical test: pageantry, protests, and what both sides are watching for42:18 – Taiwan as the most dangerous variable and where theory meets practice46:58 – Lack of institutional guardrails and the risks of Trump's personalistic foreign policyPaying it forward:Audrye Wong (USC)Recommendations:Ryan: The Conscience of the Party: Hu Yaobang, China's Communist Reformer by Robert SuettingerKaiser: The Last Cavalier (Le Chevalier de Sainte-Hermine) by Alexandre Dumas; Asia Society conversation with Lizzi Lee, Bert Hoffmann, and Gerard DiPippo on rebalancing China's economy; Trivium China Podcast with Andrew Polk, Joe Peissel, Danny McMahon, and Cory Combs on capital expenditure headwindsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Uber's incoming CFO Balaji Krishnamurthy talks with TITV Host Akash Pasricha about the company's path to a $1 trillion TAM through autonomous vehicles and its competitive stance against Tesla. We also talk with 'Chip War' author Chris Miller about Nvidia and AMD's struggle with China trade regulations, and The Information's Anissa Gardizy and Catherine Perloff about a massive new commercial deal between Amazon and OpenAI. Lastly, we get into the deepening software stock selloff with our finance editor Ken Brown.Articles discussed on this episode: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/amazon-discusses-getting-special-access-openai-techhttps://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-information-finance/big-tech-companies-racing-fund-openaihttps://www.theinformation.com/briefings/uber-reports-20-higher-revenue-growth-acceleratesSubscribe: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theinformation The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/subscribe_hSign up for the AI Agenda newsletter: https://www.theinformation.com/features/ai-agendaTITV airs weekdays on YouTube, X and LinkedIn at 10AM PT / 1PM ET. Or check us out wherever you get your podcasts.Follow us:X: https://x.com/theinformationIG: https://www.instagram.com/theinformation/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@titv.theinformationLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theinformation/

Eyck Freymann and Harry Halem, co-authors of "The Arsenal of Democracy: Keeping China Deterred in an Age of Hard Choices," join us to cover a range of topics, including US–China military balance, defense procurement, and the critical need for aligned industrial capacity, technological R&D, and military doctrine. Through historical models, potential reforms, and the importance of logistics and innovation, this episode offers a comprehensive look at how the US can strategically deter China into the 2030s. Hosts: Sheena Chestnut Greitens and Ryan Vest Producer: Jordan Morning 

Keith Humphreys, a leading expert on addiction psychiatry, based at Stanford University, unpacks his January article in Science examining the steep reduction in overdoses deaths—between May 2023 and the end of 2024—in the United States and Canada. It likely stemmed from a supply shock, linked to steps taken by China to disrupt the supply of fentanyl and precursor chemicals. Underneath, US-China diplomacy was essential. This story was lost during the 2024 US presidential election cycle. Subsequently, President Trump's overt threats to China, including the imposition of a 20% tariff tied to fentanyl, changed the negotiating context. Some progress followed on October 30 when Presidents XI and Trump met on the margins of the APEC summit in South Korea.

The Hoover Institution Program on the US, China, and the World hosted, Insights from the 2025 US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Report: Findings and Recommendations, on Thursday, January 29, 2026.  This event features leading experts from the Hoover Institution and the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission for a discussion analyzing the key bilateral economic and security challenges faced by the US and China and their impacts on the broader international landscape. Congress created the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission to monitor, investigate, and report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Its annual reports to Congress address and make recommendations about pressing issues such as trade practices, technological competition, military strategy, and human rights concerns, with far-reaching implications for policymakers and stakeholders around the world. The Commission's 2025 Annual Report was released in November 2025. To view the report, click the following link: https://www.uscc.gov/annual-reports FEATURING Erin Baggott Carter is a Hoover Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. She is also an associate professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California, a faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute, and a nonresident scholar at the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego. She has previously held fellowships at the CDDRL and Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. She received a PhD in political science from Harvard University.  Drew Endy is a science fellow and senior fellow (courtesy) at the Hoover Institution. He leads Hoover's Bio-Strategy and Leadership effort, which focuses on keeping increasingly biotic futures secure, flourishing, and democratic. Professor Endy also researches and teaches bioengineering at Stanford University, where he is the Martin Family University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, senior fellow (courtesy) of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and faculty codirector of degree programs for the Hasso Plattner Institute of Design.  Mike Kuiken is a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution and serves as a Commissioner on the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He is an advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) and a member of Anthropic's National Security and Public Sector Advisory Council. He also consults with CEOs, boards, and senior leaders across investment, AI, defense, technology, and multinational firms globally.  The Honorable Randall G. Schriver is Chairman of the Board at The Institute for Indo-Pacific Security. In addition, Mr. Schriver is currently a partner at Pacific Solutions LLC. Most recently, Mr. Schriver served as the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs from 8 January 2018 to 31 December 2019. Prior to his confirmation as Assistant Secretary, Mr. Schriver was a founding partner of Armitage International LLC, a consulting firm that specializes in international business development and strategies. He was also a founder of the Project 2049 Institute and served as President and CEO. Previously, Mr. Schriver served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.  MODERATOR  Glenn Tiffert is a distinguished research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China. He co-chairs Hoover's program on the  US, China, and the World, and also leads Stanford's participation in the National Science Foundation's SECURE program, a $67 million effort authorized by the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 to enhance the security and integrity of the US research enterprise. He works extensively on the security and integrity of ecosystems of knowledge, particularly academic, corporate, and government research; science and technology policy; and malign foreign interference.  

Watch the full podcast! https://chinauncensored.tv/programs/podcast-324  President Trump has created a firestorm by saying the US plans to take Greenland, and will do it by force if necessary. There are a lot of theories out there about why he really wants the arctic country. In this episode we discuss Greenland's geostrategic importance in a US-China war. Joining us once again is Captain Jim Fanell. He's the former Director of Intelligence and Information Operations for the US Pacific Fleet. He's also co-author of the book Embracing Communist China: America's Greatest Strategic Failure Join our fight to expose the CCP at https://chinauncensored.tv and get ALL the new full-length interviews! And check out our other channel, China Uncensored: https://www.youtube.com/ChinaUncensored Our social media: X: https://www.x.com/ChinaUncensored Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ChinaUncensored Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ChinaUncensored #China

This week on MoneyFM 89.3’s International News Review, Steve Okun joins Saturday Mornings Show host Glenn van Zutphen and co-host Neil Humphreys to break down a whirlwind of geopolitical shifts that signal a world rapidly reorganising itself around — and sometimes away from — the United States. We start in Beijing, where UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s high‑stakes meeting with President Xi Jinping marks a notable reset in UK‑China relations. With new agreements on trade, visas, and strategic cooperation, the visit underscores how middle powers are forging their own pathways amid an unpredictable Washington. Steve also shares insights from his recent trip to Hong Kong — including conversations with business leaders navigating private‑equity headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and the city’s ongoing effort to remain a global financial hub. Then we head to Panama, where the Supreme Court has struck down CK Hutchison’s long‑standing port contracts, injecting fresh tension into the US‑China rivalry over control of critical global trade routes. The ruling could reshape ownership of key canal operations and reverberate across global supply chains. And for our "kicker" the viral Gen‑Z phrase “6‑7” has officially topped the 2025 list of overused words — declared “cooked” and ceremonially banished for the new year.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As debate intensifies over the unraveling of the U.S.-led international order, sparked by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's stark remarks at Davos, small states are being forced to rethink how they survive and advance in an increasingly fragmented global system. Carney captured the anxiety shared by many global leaders when he bluntly declared that the U.S.-led international order is over. In this episode of the China Global South Podcast, Eric is joined by Sagar Prasai, an independent advisor to international development agencies, and Mandakini D. Surie, an independent development consultant with over two decades of experience across governments, NGOs, and think tanks. The discussion draws on their recent report examining how small states in South Asia are navigating a rapidly emerging multipolar world shaped in part by China's expanding role. Building on their research, Prasai and Surie unpack the strategic calculations unfolding across Asia—dynamics that closely mirror the pressures facing smaller and developing countries across the Global South as they adapt to a shifting balance of power.

I almost filmed this video using an AI digital twin.It was efficient. Scalable. Technically impressive.But in a world where trust is at an all-time low—and real human connection has quietly disappeared—I realized something uncomfortable:Authenticity is now the only currency that matters.In this video, I explain why I deleted my AI clone and introduce the newly updated 2026 edition of The Chinese Honeymoon Period.When the original book was written, the world still believed in engagement, exchange, and cautious optimism.That world is gone.The U.S. and China have shifted from frenemies to perceived existential threats.“Decoupling” has metastasized into reality.An AI arms race is accelerating distrust while hollowing out human-to-human understanding.This video reflects on what all of that means—for professionals, parents, students, and anyone living between cultures.In this update, I explore:• Why I chose “real” over “perfect” for this channel—and what AI gets wrong about trust• The 2026 reality of US–China relations after the honeymoon is long dead• Why language fluency alone no longer works without cultural intelligence and empathy• New reflections shaped by leaving China and raising a next-generation American-Born Chinese (ABC)If the original book was about recognizing when the honeymoon ends, this edition asks a harder question:What happens after we wake up?If you work, live, study, or raise children across cultures—and feel the growing tension but still believe understanding matters—My latest book, Speak Less, Guanxi More takes your awareness into practice—where outcomes are actually shaped.Learn when not to speak, how to read what's happening beneath the surface, and why fewer assumptions lead to far better results.https://genejhsu.com/#USChinaRelations #CulturalIntelligence #MandarinChinese #Chineseculture #Chinabusiness

In this episode, the mates discuss Davos 2026. Get access to metatrends 10+ years before anyone else - https://qr.diamandis.com/metatrends   Salim Ismail is the founder of OpenExO Dave Blundin is the founder & GP of Link Ventures Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross is a computer scientist and founder of Reified – My companies: Apply to Dave's and my new fund:https://qr.diamandis.com/linkventureslanding      Go to Blitzy to book a free demo and start building today: https://qr.diamandis.com/blitzy   _ Connect with Peter: X Instagram Connect with Dave: X LinkedIn Connect with Salim: X Join Salim's Workshop to build your ExO  Connect with Alex Website LinkedIn X Email Listen to MOONSHOTS: Apple YouTube – *Recorded on January 24th, 2026 *The views expressed by me and all guests are personal opinions and do not constitute Financial, Medical, or Legal advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Oliver Villar, a political scientist at Charles Sturt University in Australia, discusses his research on US imperial power and Latin American politics, covering his co-authored book, Cocaine, Death Squads and the War on Terror: US Imperialism and Class Struggle in Colombia (Monthly Review, 2011). Villar historicises the role that the US-led counternarcotic policies, specifically Plan Colombia, have played in serving as a pretext for advancing imperialist interests and undermining popular, leftist movements in the country and how the official “wars” on drugs and terror in Colombia are a pretext for the US to maintain an imperialist relationship while ensuring its business interests, as well as the local “narco-bourgeoisie,” can monopolise the cocaine trade. Exploring how US strategy intensified violence by supporting state-linked paramilitary forces, ultimately suppressing domestic labour and peasant struggles, Villar observes that it was during the Clinton administration “where everything starts to unravel” and when the US began to propagandise and brand the revolutionary armed forces of Colombia, leftist guerrillas, as the new “narco-terrorists.” He assesses how the US narrative surrounding Maduro flows in the same direction as propaganda from this earlier era, whereby anyone who “gets in America's way is now fair game for the narco-terrorist label”, underscoring, “It has nothing to do with drugs.” Oliver relates what is happening in Latin America in conjunction with China's rapid trajectory as a superpower and its clash with the United States over the control of resources (e.g., minerals and metals in Latin America) and its augmenting global influence. He dissects how the cocaine drug trade and the US-China rivalry in Latin America, the Caribbean, and the globe form part of a larger picture of US global hegemony while offering a critical history of US imperialism, its hegemonic decline, and the so-called “rising threat” of China to explain recent events. Responding to events in Venezuela, Greenland, and the “great power competition” that is unfolding between the US, China, and Russia, Villar elaborates on research from his most recent book, The Political Economy of Dissent (Routledge, 2026), in critically analysing 21st-century imperialism—that is, capitalism in its most aggressive and developed form, which is the driving force behind an intensifying rivalry between the US and China. Get full access to Savage Minds at savageminds.substack.com/subscribe

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureChina & Canada are trying to bypass Trump trade tariffs. This has already failed, and Trump calls out Carney.EU economy is weak and it is getting weaker, there are two paths, one that follows the [CB] agenda the other is Trump economic agenda. Inflation declines again, Gold and Silver are up, Trump’s plan is working, its time to end the endless.The [DS] is now calling for the insurgency to accelerate. Clinton and Obama are now calling on their foot soldiers to push the insurrection against Trump. Trump has put a message to all D’s, lets work together, the optics are very good, the D’s will do this for a short period of time but in the end they will push the insurrection. Once they do this, they lost the people. Timing and optics are very important.   Economy  Carney Cracks: Canada Has ‘No Intention’ Of Pursuing Free Trade Deal With China After Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs To review: right before Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney returned from a trip to Beijing and announced a new 5-point ‘strategic partnership’ to ‘diversify our trade partnerships.’ The agreements included slashing tariffs on Chinese EV imports from 100 percent to 6.1 percent for the first 49,000 units, in exchange for China cutting tariffs on Canadian canola from 85 percent to 15 percent until at least the end of the year. Other exports, including Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas will also not be subject to Chinese anti-discrimination tariffs until at least the end of 2026. A week later, Carney told the global elite at Davos resort that the “rules-based order” established by the United States and its allies following WW2 was fraying amid the current rivalry between China and America, so the “middle powers must act together because if we’re not on the table, we’re on the menu.”  Carney said that for their survival, nations should no longer “go along to get along” with Trump.   Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada has “no intention” of pursuing a free trade deal with China, after Donald Trump threatened to slap a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Ottawa “makes a deal” with Beijing.   Source: zerohedge.com Trump Is Right About Europe's Weak Economy: U.S. vs. EU Compared  President Trump argued that Europe's economic stagnation is the result of a self-inflicted “civilizational erasure” driven by reliance on what he calls the “Green New Scam,” which he says has replaced affordable energy with costly and unreliable wind power. He further asserted that unchecked mass migration has strained social infrastructure and altered the continent's cultural identity, while a stifling regulatory environment and excessive government spending have suppressed the innovation needed to compete with the United States. Finally, he accused European nations of freeloading on American security, arguing that their failure to meet NATO defense spending targets over the past 70 years has allowed them to avoid the true costs of national sovereignty at the expense of the American taxpayer. Based on current economic data as of January 2026, the comparison supports Trump's critique. While the United States is experiencing aggressive growth alongside widespread deregulation, Europe remains mired in what can best be described as stabilized stagnation. The United States enters 2026 with inflation at 2.7%, steadily returning toward the 2% target. As in President Trump's first term, strong GDP growth has been paired with relatively modest inflation. Fourth-quarter GDP growth is projected at 5.4%, dwarfing Europe's stagnant 0.2%. For the full year, U.S. growth is expected to reach between 4.3% and 5%, while Europe is projected to manage only about 1.3% to 1.6%. On the labor front, the United States maintains its historical advantage, with unemployment at 4.4% compared to 6.3% in the Eurozone. This low level of unemployment has been achieved despite deep government job cuts that reduced taxpayer costs. While the United States reduced federal spending by $100 billion, European fiscal policy has moved in the opposite direction. The U.S. has moved 1.2 million people off food stamps, while European social safety nets are coming under increased strain from rising living costs. In 2024, the most recent data available, EU social protection spending rose by 7%, far outpacing nominal GDP growth. This imbalance pushed the social expenditure-to-GDP ratio to 27.3% across the bloc, with countries such as France and Austria exceeding 31%, reinforcing the strain caused by rising demand for social welfare. Energy remains far cheaper in the United States, particularly electricity and natural gas, due to abundant domestic production, lower taxes and levies, and reduced reliance on imports, with overall prices about half of Europe's and industrial electricity often as little as one-third. Source: thegatewaypundit.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2015764155580756471?s=20 https://twitter.com/truflation/status/2015770236105138602?s=20 https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2015647917441183786?s=20 spending problems. Gold is at record highs against every currency, not just the dollar Political/Rights DOGE https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2015553600106164548?s=20 Geopolitical https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2015729194270154997?s=20   supply before then. More LNG, more U.S. gas, more renewables… Higher costs baked in. For Brussels this is an irreversible line. After 2027, there's no “going back to normal.” The EU has indeed been importing refined petroleum products from India that originate from Russian crude oil, creating an indirect pathway for Russian oil to enter the European market despite sanctions on direct imports from Russia since December 2022.  This circumvention became prominent after the EU and G7 imposed a price cap on Russian oil, prompting Russia to redirect exports to countries like India and China, where the crude is refined and then resold.    EU officials and analysts have long acknowledged the loophole, which is why recent sanctions packages have targeted it directly. For instance, the EU’s 18th sanctions package in July 2025 banned the import of petroleum products derived from Russian crude processed in third countries, and specifically sanctioned Nayara Energy, an Indian refinery partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft.  The 19th package in October 2025 further tightened measures by sanctioning additional third-country entities, including three in India, for supporting Russia’s circumvention efforts. As a result, major Indian refiners like Reliance Industries have stopped importing Russian crude for certain facilities to comply with these rules and maintain access to EU markets. Russia, meanwhile, continues to adapt by using new middlemen exporters to supply India, aiming to sustain the flow despite the crackdown.  India has not fully stopped importing Russian oil since then, but imports have significantly declined. In 2025, Russia’s share of India’s crude oil imports fell to 33.3% from 36% the previous year, while OPEC’s share rose slightly to 50%.  By December 2025, India dropped to the third-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels overall, importing €2.3 billion worth that month, with major refiners like Reliance Industries scaling back or halting purchases.    This reduction appears driven by a mix of U.S. tariff pressures, steeper discounts on Russian crude drawing buyers back selectively, and India’s strategic diversification to ensure energy security without fully alienating Russia—a key defense and trade partner. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2015527595975033161?s=20   the CMC Joint Staff Dept: Under investigation for violations 5. Director of CMC Political Work Dept: Removed in 2025 over corruption The US-China rivalry has gone well beyond trade.   The purges depicted in the image of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) stem from an escalating anti-corruption campaign under Xi Jinping, which has targeted the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) extensively since 2023. This drive is officially framed as rooting out graft, bribery, and disciplinary violations, but analysts widely interpret it as a mechanism for Xi to consolidate power, enforce unwavering loyalty among military leaders, and address systemic issues like incompetence or factional rivalries that could undermine PLA readiness.  The campaign has intensified in 2025-2026, affecting nearly the entire top echelon of the CMC—China’s highest military decision-making body, chaired by Xi himself—leaving it in significant disarray  War/Peace Report: Iran's Khamenei Flees to ‘Fortified' Bunker, Fearing U.S. Strike Following rising concerns over a possible U.S. military strike, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has relocated to a heavily fortified underground compound in Tehran, according to reports, which cited sources close to the regime who revealed his son now oversees day-to-day operations. Source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2015828196273303756?s=20 calling it a dream disconnected from reality. The US covers about 68% of NATO defense spending while Europe still misses its 2% commitments. Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/2015559098847428717?s=20 https://twitter.com/JoeConchaTV/status/2015519543846703552?s=20 If you are preparing a city for an insurrection is this what you do to lower morale, have police quit and this way there is no one to stop the insurgency     In 2024 Minnesota AG Keith Ellison Argued No Right to Carry a Gun at ‘Political Rallies and Protests' In 2024, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) was among 17 AGs who contended there is no right to carry a gun at “political rallies and protests.” The AGs did this in a January 26, 2024, filing in support of upholding California's gun controls for “sensitive places” in a Ninth Circuit case. In the filing, Ellison and the other AGs expressed support for banning the possession of firearms “in crowded places.” The AGs wrote: “Without the power to institute such restrictions, California and other states would be left unable effectively to prevent gun violence in crowded places, around vulnerable populations, or where individuals are exercising other constitutionally protected rights, putting the public at risk.” They emphasized, “Even the perceived risk of gun violence could cause repercussions, as individuals may be discouraged from visiting crowded or confined locations where they know others may be armed.” Source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/BillClinton/status/2015562744993350135?s=20 Didn’t Bill and Hiliary Violate a Supeona to testify in front of congress, they broke the law, shouldn’t he be in jail. Barack Obama Urges More Street Protests, Blames Trump for Minneapolis Shooting https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/2015479691147149747?s=20 4700 Q !!Hs1Jq13jV6 ID: a54ff9 No.10644532 Sep 14 2020 11:34:31 (EST) Worth remembering [think what you see today]. https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/119629.pdf

Mark Simon Simon offers a harsh retrospective on US-China relations, arguing that the engagement strategy dating back to 1972 has never really worked for the United States. He dismisses the economic trade-off of "cheap stuff at Walmart" as a poor return for allowing China to flood US markets. Simon specifically criticizes the George H.W. Bush administration (and Brent Scowcroft) for making a grand strategic and moral mistake; he contends that by ignoring "blood on the streets," the US propped up a regime that it should have realized could not be changed, missing a critical opportunity to do better.1930S HONG KONG

with @PalmerLuckey @cdixonIn this special episode — our 100th on the a16z crypto show! — Chris Dixon interviews Palmer Luckey (founder of Anduril; founder of Oculus VR and designer of the Oculus Rift) to talk about the future of technology, belief, and building.What does it take to build hardware at scale? Where are many of today's tech bottlenecks? And what's the case for optimism about the future despite growing geopolitical turmoil, regulatory constraints, and other blockers to innovation? The candid, wide-ranging conversation covers crypto, banking, and stablecoins, as well as modern warfare, the U.S.–China technology race, AI and manufacturing, and much more. Dixon also digs into company building in good times and bad with Luckey; the conversation was recorded live at our Founders Summit. Highlights:0:00 — Introduction2:08 — Early Oculus: Why VR was hard8:02 — Bitcoin & early crypto days9:49 — The Facebook acquisition13:36 — How successful was VR, really?18:59 — Starting Anduril20:01 — Hiring for mission ("Don't Work at Anduril")23:59 — How Anduril works (product dev, org design)27:47 — How Palmer stays ahead of the curve33:00 — The US-China technology race34:40 — What Putin understood early about AI39:45 — Stablecoins & banking risk45:00 — Politics as bottleneck47:00 — Future of technology: AI, fusion, quantum50:23 — Automation, abundance, and optimism53:23 — Ukraine, drones, and the reality of warFollow a16z crypto for more...X: https://x.com/a16zcryptoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/a16zcrypto/posts/Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/7pMZvsNXEnb0CYcPiDQywEApple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/web3-with-a16z-crypto/id1622312549Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@a16zcrypto

George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures discusses the shifting global order in this essential conversation. He explains why the world is "re-anchoring" away from the Cold War framework, how Russia's failure in Ukraine has ended its status as a global power, and why the US-China relationship is now the defining geopolitical dynamic of our era.

This week in AI and tech: Google removes medical AI overviews after controversy, Anthropic launches Claude for Healthcare, Slackbot becomes a full AI agent, OpenAI signs a $10 billion deal with Cerebras, and Trump announces 25% tariffs on AI chips.⏱️ TIMESTAMPS00:00 Intro00:30 Story #1: Google Pulls Medical AI Overviews04:15 Story #2: Anthropic Launches Claude for Healthcare08:45 Story #3: Slackbot Becomes AI Agent13:20 Story #4: OpenAI's $10B Cerebras Deal18:00 Story #5: Trump's 25% AI Chip Tariff22:30 Final Thoughts

Episode 144Happy New Year! This is one of my favorite episodes of the year — for the fourth time, Nathan Benaich and I did our yearly roundup of AI news and advancements, including selections from this year's State of AI Report.If you've stuck around and continue to listen, I'm really thankful you're here. I love hearing from you.You can find Nathan and Air Street Press here on Substack and on Twitter, LinkedIn, and his personal site. Check out his writing at press.airstreet.com.Find me on Twitter (or LinkedIn if you want…) for updates on new episodes, and reach me at editor@thegradient.pub for feedback, ideas, guest suggestions.Outline* (00:00) Intro* (00:44) Air Street Capital and Nathan world* Nathan's path from cancer research and bioinformatics to AI investing* The “evergreen thesis” of AI from niche to ubiquitous* Portfolio highlights: Eleven Labs, Synthesia, Crusoe* (03:44) Geographic flexibility: Europe vs. the US* Why SF isn't always the best place for original decisions* Industry diversity in New York vs. San Francisco* The Munich Security Conference and Europe's defense pivot* Playing macro games from a European vantage point* (07:55) VC investment styles and the “solo GP” approach* Taste as the determinant of investments* SF as a momentum game with small information asymmetry* Portfolio diversity: defense (Delian), embodied AI (Syriact), protein engineering* Finding entrepreneurs who “can't do anything else”* (10:44) State of AI progress in 2025* Momentous progress in writing, research, computer use, image, and video* We're in the “instruction manual” phase* The scale of investment: private markets, public markets, and nation states* (13:21) Range of outcomes and what “going bad” looks like* Today's systems are genuinely useful—worst case is a valuation problem* Financialization of AI buildouts and GPUs* (14:55) DeepSeek and China closing the capability gap* Seven-month lag analysis (Epoch AI)* Benchmark skepticism and consumer preferences (”Coca-Cola vs. Pepsi”)* Hedonic adaptation: humans reset expectations extremely quickly* Bifurcation of model companies toward specific product bets* (18:29) Export controls and the “evolutionary pressure” argument* Selective pressure breeds innovation* Chinese companies rushing to public markets (Minimax, ZAI)* (21:30) Reasoning models and test-time compute* Chain of thought faithfulness questions* Monitorability tax: does observability reduce quality?* User confusion about when models should “think”* AI for science: literature agents, hypothesis generation* (23:53) Chain of thought interpretability and safety* Anthropomorphization concerns* Alignment faking and self-preservation behaviors* Cybersecurity as a bigger risk than existential risk* Models as payloads injected into critical systems* (27:26) Commercial traction and AI adoption data* Ramp data: 44% of US businesses paying for AI (up from 5% in early 2023)* Average contract values up to $530K from $39K* State of AI survey: 92% report productivity gains* The “slow takeoff” consensus and human inertia* Use cases: meeting notes, content generation, brainstorming, coding, financial analysis* (32:53) The industrial era of AI* Stargate and XAI data centers* Energy infrastructure: gas turbines and grid investment* Labs need to own models, data, compute, and power* Poolside's approach to owning infrastructure* (35:40) Venture capital in the age of massive GPU capex* The GP lives in the present, the entrepreneur in the future, the LP in the past* Generality vs. specialism narratives* “Two or 20”: management fees vs. carried interest* Scaling funds to match entrepreneur ambitions* (40:10) NVIDIA challengers and returns analysis* Chinese challengers: 6x return vs. 26x on NVIDIA* US challengers: 2x return vs. 12x on NVIDIA* Grok acquired for $20B; Samba Nova markdown to $1.6B* “The tide is lifting all boats”—demand exceeds supply* (44:06) The hardware lottery and architecture convergence* Transformer dominance and custom ASICs making a comeback* NVIDIA still 90–95% of published AI research* (45:49) AI regulation: Trump agenda and the EU AI Act* Domain-specific regulators vs. blanket AI policy* State-level experimentation creates stochasticity* EU AI Act: “born before GPT-4, takes effect in a world shaped by GPT-7”* Only three EU member states compliant by late 2025* (50:14) Sovereign AI: what it really means* True sovereignty requires energy, compute, data, talent, chip design, and manufacturing* The US is sovereign; the UK by itself is not* Form alliances or become world-class at one level of the stack* ASML and the Netherlands as an example* (52:33) Open weight safety and containment* Three paths: model-based safeguards, scaffolding/ecosystem, procedural/governance* “Pandora's box is open”—containment on distribution, not weights* Leak risk: the most vulnerable link is often human* Developer–policymaker communication and regulator upskilling* (55:43) China's AI safety approach* Matt Sheehan's work on Chinese AI regulation* Safety summits and China's participation* New Chinese policies: minor modes, mental health intervention, data governance* UK's rebrand from “safety” to “security” institutes* (58:34) Prior predictions and patterns* Hits on regulatory/political areas; misses on semiconductor consolidation, AI video games* (59:43) 2026 Predictions* A Chinese lab overtaking US on frontier (likely ZAI or DeepSeek, on scientific reasoning)* Data center NIMBYism influencing midterm politics* (01:01:01) ClosingLinks and ResourcesNathan / Air Street Capital* Air Street Capital* State of AI Report 2025* Air Street Press — essays, analysis, and the Guide to AI newsletter* Nathan on Substack* Nathan on Twitter/X* Nathan on LinkedInFrom Air Street Press (mentioned in episode)* Is the EU AI Act Actually Useful? — by Max Cutler and Nathan Benaich* China Has No Place at the UK AI Safety Summit (2023) — by Alex Chalmers and Nathan BenaichResearch & Analysis* Epoch AI: Chinese AI Models Lag US by 7 Months — the analysis referenced on the US-China capability gap* Sara Hooker: The Hardware Lottery — the essay on how hardware determines which research ideas succeed* Matt Sheehan: China's AI Regulations and How They Get Made — Carnegie EndowmentCompanies Mentioned* Eleven Labs — AI voice synthesis (Air Street portfolio)* Synthesia — AI video generation (Air Street portfolio)* Crusoe — clean compute infrastructure (Air Street portfolio)* Poolside — AI for code (Air Street portfolio)* DeepSeek — Chinese AI lab* Minimax — Chinese AI company* ASML — semiconductor equipmentOther Resources* Search Engine Podcast: Data Centers (Part 1 & 2) — PJ Vogt's two-part series on XAI data centers and the AI financing boom* RAAIS Foundation — Nathan's AI research and education charity Get full access to The Gradient at thegradientpub.substack.com/subscribe

Dr. Yun Sun: The State of U.S. - China Relations St. John's, Lafayette Square Washington, DC Release date: 26 January 2026

In this episode of NucleCast, Adam talks with Professor John Copper, a leading expert on Taiwan, to discuss the complex history and current geopolitical landscape of Taiwan. The conversation explores Taiwan's identity, its relationship with China, and the implications of US-China relations. Professor Copper emphasizes the exaggerated urgency of China's reunification efforts and highlights Taiwan's unique position as a democracy in a region of authoritarianism. The discussion also touches on the historical context of Taiwan's development, the challenges it faces, and the potential paths forward for its future.Dr. John F. Copper is the Stanley J. Buckman Distinguished Professor of International Studies (emeritus) and author of more than 40 books on Asia and international affairs. His newest book is Taiwan's Presidents: Profiles of the Majestic Six (Routledge, 2024).00:00 Introduction to Taiwan's Complex History02:11 Current Geopolitical Tensions and Perspectives 17:07 Historical Context of Taiwan's Identity26:09 Wishes for Taiwan's Future RelationsSocials:Follow on Twitter at @NucleCastFollow on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/nuclecastpodcastSubscribe RSS Feed: https://rss.com/podcasts/nuclecast-podcast/Rate: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nuclecast/id1644921278Email comments and topic/guest suggestions to NucleCast@anwadeter.org

Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden's National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We talk through: Xi, Trump, and what drove the roller coaster of US-China relations in 2025 Why it feels too quiet right now and what could get this train off the rails in 2026 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jon Czin spent years as a top China analyst at the CIA, served as China Director on Biden's National Security Council, and now works at the Brookings Institution. We talk through: Xi, Trump, and what drove the roller coaster of US-China relations in 2025 Why it feels too quiet right now and what could get this train off the rails in 2026 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Donald Trump announces a sweeping 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, aiming to economically isolate the regime without boots on the ground. Patrick Bet-David and the panel break down who this really targets, the impact on China and India, and the long-term risks of weaponizing the dollar.

In this episode of Impact Theory, Tom Bilyeu takes us on a riveting deep dive into recent U.S. actions in Venezuela, challenging the mainstream narratives about oil and drugs. Instead, he reveals the far more complex—and dangerous—geopolitical chess game unfolding between the United States and China. Drawing vivid parallels with history, from the Cuban Missile Crisis to the collapse of great empires, Tom Bilyeu explains how Venezuela became a pivotal pawn in a new era of great power politics. You'll hear how economic collapse, foreign influence, and a return to aggressive power struggles are shaping a world where peace is the exception, not the rule. With the stakes higher than ever, Tom Bilyeu unpacks the potential consequences—for America, Venezuela, and the global order—of bold U.S. intervention and what it means as Cold War 2.0 heats up. Get ready for a thought-provoking exploration of history, power, and the uncertain road ahead. Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodHomeServe: Help protect your home systems – and your wallet – with HomeServe against covered repairs. Plans start at just $4.99 a month at https://homeserve.comCape: 33% off your first 6 months with code IMPACT at https://cape.co/impactShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactSumm: code TOMVIP20 for 20% off your first year at https://summ.com?via=tombilyeu&coupon=TOMVIP20AirDoctor: Up to $300 off with code IMPACT at https://airdoctorpro.com Pique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impactKetone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderNetSuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/TheoryBevel Health: Visit https://bevel.health/impact and use code IMPACT to get your first month free. What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This Week In Startups is made possible by:Hubspot - http://clickhubspot.com/twist1Circle.so - http://circle.so/twistSentry - http://sentry.io/twistToday's show: On the last TWiST episode before Jason goes to Japan and Alex begins on paternity leave, the hosts break down the blockbuster tech news that is kicking off 2026.Discord AND Strava both eyeing billion dollar IPOs, two massive social media apps with millions of daily active users. Jason unpacks Discord's the growth story, from a gaming-first product launch in 2015, to a community/work platform and social media for all. Jason explains why Strava proves that data is the MOAT for consumer apps.PLUS Jason and Alex are joined by Producer Oliver to rank the top CES products. Jason gave his thoughts on the different robots, self driving cars, and multi-fold phones on display.Would you buy a triple-fold phone?Timestamps:(00:00) Discord looks to go public at $7 Billion!(10:05) Hubspot: Check out the guide “How to Get Your First 100 Customers.” Download it for free at http://clickhubspot.com/twist1(13:37) Strava going public and why data IS the moat for consumer software(19:28) Circle.so: the easiest way to build a home for your community, events, and courses — all under your own brand.(22:25) Anthropic's $350B valuation and why it makes sense(31:59) Sentry: New users get 3 months free of the Business plan (covers 150k errors). Go to http://sentry.io/twist and use code TWIST(33:05) Why is China upset about META's Manus acquisition — and why Jason is hopeful for the US-China relationship(37:24) Jason's favorite part of CES: The rise of open source AI!(40:59) Why Jason LOVES his self driving Tesla — why public companies need to be safe and not push too quickly(44:24) Producer Oliver's Top CES Tech products(54:46) Jason's Major Takeway from CES(59:43) How many times can you fold a phone?(1:04:04) New interfaces for smartphones*Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com/Check out the TWIST500: https://twist500.comSubscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp*Follow Lon:X: https://x.com/lons*Follow Alex:X: https://x.com/alexLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm/*Follow Jason:X: https://twitter.com/JasonLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis/*Thank you to our partners:(10:05) Hubspot: Check out the guide “How to Get Your First 100 Customers.” Download it for free at http://clickhubspot.com/twist1(19:28) Circle.so: the easiest way to build a home for your community, events, and courses — all under your own brand.(31:59) Sentry: New users get 3 months free of the Business plan (covers 150k errors). Go to http://sentry.io/twist and use code TWISTGreat TWIST interviews: Will Guidarahttps://youtu.be/pvJa2pzuXWQEoghan McCabehttps://youtu.be/9dHN4YFkgv4Steve Huffmanhttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reddit-ceo-steve-huffman-on-mod-revolt-building-a/id315114957?i=1000617333424Brian Cheskyhttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-on-early-rejection-customer/id315114957?i=1000611761112Bob Moestahttps://youtu.be/y2UMzSqX94QAaron Leviehttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/box-ceo-aaron-levie-breaks-down-box-ai-and-generative/id315114957?i=1000612384545Sophia Amorusohttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/sophia-amoruso-on-branding-raising-a-fund-portfolio/id315114957?i=1000601352978Reid Hoffmanhttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/reid-hoffman-on-ais-crescendo-moment-regulation-and/id315114957?i=1000612548498Frank Slootmanhttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/snowflake-ceo-frank-slootman-on-moving-the-needle-win/id315114957?i=1000602560622

In this episode, Ben Lorica and Evangelos Simoudis of Synapse Partners to break down the most significant developments from CES 2026. They explore the explosion of humanoid robotics and the transition toward software-defined vehicles before diving into a deep analysis of the shifting US-China export controls on AI chips. Subscribe to the Gradient Flow Newsletter

The reduced vaccine recommendations, U.S.-China relations, and the end of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian migrants. Plus, the oldest woman to complete the Appalachian Trail, Cal Thomas on the coming congressional showdown over Venezuela, and the Thursday morning newsSupport The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donateAdditional support comes from Commuter Bible, the Bible podcast series that matches weekly schedules. On podcast apps and commuterbible.org. Annual plans begin this week.From Dordt University. Dordt's online Master of Social Work program equips students for faithful service in their local communities – until all is made new.And from the Free Lutheran Bible College (FLBC), Plymouth, MN, preparing students to live out their calling through the study of God's Word in authentic community since 1964. At FLBC, biblical truth isn't an elective course—it's the foundation of our academic study. Through the study of God's Word in authentic, Christ-centered community, you'll form a biblical worldview that gives you clarity and confidence for whatever comes next—college, career, family, or ministry. Learn more at flbc.edu/world

First off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week's episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don't seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what's actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn't meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It's simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you're deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you've felt like the economy and the markets aren't really speaking the same language right now, I think you'll find this episode useful. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  You need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have, who own things, who own assets and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast, and today I am going to do something a little bit different. I’m gonna kind of give you. My perspective, maybe predictions I dare say about, uh, the upcoming year in 2026, how I look at it, what I think, uh, uh, is likely outcome and why. Not that I am any smarter than any of you on this stuff, but I’ve actually kind of sat down and, and thought about, you know, the things that are going on in the macroeconomic. Side of things and, um, put some stuff together and, uh, hopefully you’ll enjoy it. We’ll have, uh, that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from. Your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your invest. Get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back everyone, and, uh, happy New Year to you. I forgot to even say that in the intro. How rude of me. Hopefully you had a great holiday, you had a great Christmas, and you’re bringing in the new year with a vision of health and wealth and PO prosperity and all that stuff. So anyway, let’s talk a little bit about, uh, you know what I am. Kinda looking at for 2026. Now, when you think about, well, what are these predictions and what could they be and all that, um, interest rates, inflation markets, you know, uh, let’s set the foundation for how I’m thinking about it, because everything else really kind of builds on it. And the most important thing to understand is that debt. Is really now I think the main character in the economy. I know we, people have been talking about this for a very long time, but I think, I think the debt issue is really, really becoming something that cannot be ignored, and I’ll get into that in a while. Obviously, I’m not saying that inflation and interest rates don’t matter. They matter enormously. Uh, those are the things that people actually feel, right? Higher prices, higher mortgage rates, higher insurance costs. What I’m saying is that the level of debt now determines really how decisions on those things are made from policy makers. You know, how do they respond to inflation and interest rates, recessions market stress. What debt does is it actually kinda limits the range of choices around how policy makers react to all these things. So once you see that, the behavior of the economy starts to, I think, make a lot more sense. So let’s start with. Sovereign debt, and I’m gonna start really basic here because the question is, you know, what exactly is sovereign debt? Okay. And sovereign debt is the money a government owes, okay? In the US it exists because the government consistently spends more than it collects in taxes, and that gap is called the deficit. When that happens year after year, you have an accumulation of debt. Now, when debt is low, it’s, it’s pretty manageable, right? But when debt gets very large, it starts to influence policy decisions, and that’s where we are right now. Uh, here’s the key mechanic that I think most people don’t really think about, right? Governments don’t pay off debt the way you and I, you know, pay off our debt, like mortgage or whatever. They always refinance it, right? So when the US government borrows money, it issues bonds. That’s how it does, those bonds have maturity dates, and when you buy a bond, you’re, you know, you’re loaning the government money. So when a bond matures, the government owes that principle back to you. Right? So that’s, that’s kind of how well we talk about, we talk about debt, but the government doesn’t save money over time to pay off that bond. Like, I mean, that’s the way you would think about it for you and me, right? I mean, at some point you’re like, ah, I really need to pay off this debt. I’m just gonna pay it off with this money that I saved. Instead, what they do is when a bond comes due, it issues a new bond and uses the money from that new bond to pay back the old one. Okay. Now, if that sounds familiar, uh, to you, it’s because it’s pretty much what we would call in plain English refinancing, right? Now imagine though, the government issued a bond a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. That bond matures today, interest rates are much higher, right to pay off the old bond. The government issues a new one at today’s higher rates. So the debt doesn’t disappear, it just becomes more expensive to carry, right? I mean, it’s just like you got a mortgage, you know you had a, a great rate, but you only got it for seven years and all of sudden you gotta refinance it. Gosh, all of a sudden that rate went really higher and your payments are much higher, and the debt payments going up, you know, for the government, what adds to that deficit? It’s a really, really vicious cycle. Now, take that process and multiply it across trillions of dollars of debt. Now you can start seeing why interest rates matter so much in a high debt system. Now, what makes this especially important right now is that for over the last several years, the US issued a very large amount of short-term debt. Short-term debt matures quickly, and that means large portions of government debt. Come due every year and have to be refinanced at whatever the interest rate exists at the time. So even if deficit stock growing tomorrow, which they won’t, the government would still need smooth functioning financial markets just to keep refinancing what it al what already exists now. This is why the economy has become so sensitive to interest rates, liquidity and confidence. Higher interest rates increase the cost of refinancing, right? We’ve mentioned that already. And that pushes deficits higher and forces even more borrowing. So I mentioned liquidity. What is that? Well, liquidity is about how easily money moves through the system. When liquidity is good, bonds are easily absorbed. Banks lend markets function normally, and when liquidity dries up, refinancing becomes fragile. That stress. Stress in the market spreads quickly. And then finally, confidence I mentioned too. Why does confidence matter? Well, confidence matters because investors need to believe that the system is gonna hold together. When confidence weakens, guess what happens? Well, what would happen if you think about it with a loan, a higher risk loan? While investors demand higher yields like refinance, it becomes even more expensive. And problems compound fast. Now, this is why Pol policymakers are extremely uncomfortable with high borrowing costs, reduced lending, falling asset values, and deep recessions. Recessions, by the way, don’t make debt easier to manage. They make it harder by reducing tax revenue and worsening debt ratios. Now that brings me to a, something that I am feeling sort of back and forth with. Um. You know, a listener who sent me some commentary about, you know, the fear of going back to 1970s, eighties style interest rates. But the thing is that I just don’t think that comparison works, and here’s why. Okay, so in the 1970s, the US had far less debt. Interest rates could go very high without threatening the government’s ability to refinance itself. Now today, with debt much larger relative to the economy, very high rates don’t just fight inflation. They stress the entire financial structure, right? You can’t just say, oh, we’re gonna make super high rates because the cost of all that debt the government has is gonna be extraordinarily expensive. Now, that doesn’t mean that rates can’t rise. It means policymakers have far less tolerance for how high and how long rates can stay elevated. It’s a completely different system from the 1970s and eighties. So I think trying to put things into that context is probably not, um, not a, a good way to think about it. So why am I fo focusing on this right now? Uh, instead of a few years ago, because again, we stu we didn’t suddenly become a high debt economy this year. So what changed? Well timing a massive amount of debt that was issued at very low interest rates, as I mentioned before, is now maturing and being refinanced at much higher rates, and that shift is no longer theoretical. It’s happening in real time. Last year, much of that low uh, rate, debt was still in place. Interest costs hadn’t fully reset, but going into 2026, they have no, I, I keep talking about, you know, how much we’re paying an interest, right? Because again, that’s a big difference between now and the 1970s when you could have, you know, you didn’t have as much debt so you could pay more interest on it. Right now, the US is now spending roughly a trillion dollars a year just on interest. Her perspective, right? I mean, what’s a trillion dollars? Uh, what does that even mean for the normal person? Well, for Perce perspective, that’s the defense budget. $1 trillion. It’s more than Medicare, more than most major federal programs. And the thing is that money doesn’t do anything, right. It doesn’t create growth. It just services past borrowing. And this is the point where debt stops being background noise, kind of an annoyance that people just say, well, we’ll kick it to the next generation. It start starts actively shaping, uh, policy decisions because it’s, it’s a thing that you gotta pay for. You gotta keep paying for it. So the takeaway I want you to carry forward is simple. We now live in a system where policymakers don’t have the luxury of letting things break when debt is low. Governments can tolerate deep recessions like you saw in the seventies and eighties and long recoveries. When debt is high, they can’t because even small shocks can just really get outta control quickly. And that’s the framework I think, uh, that I’m using as we move into interest rates, inflation, and what all this means for markets going into 2026. So let’s talk about interest rates. You’ve heard me say that I think that interest rates are gonna come down. Um, they’re gonna continue to tick down a little bit. I don’t think a lot, but I do think there’ll probably be at least one more rate cut. I think, you know, you’re probably gonna have some, um, uh, some lowering in the 10 year and, and the bond market in general. Uh, but interest rates are not gonna go back to 2010, right? They just aren’t. And. The 2010s were not normal. There were a very specific period created by very specific conditions, right? Inflation was persistently low, uh, but just wouldn’t go up. Globalization, uh, push prices down. Capital was abundant. Debt levels, well, they were high, but they’re rising, but they hadn’t become what they are now. And because of that, central banks could hold rates near zero without much consequence. That environment, unfortunately, does not exist now. So today, debt is much higher. Inflation risk is real again, and investors expect to be compensated for lending money long term. So even when rates decline from current levels, they do not return, uh, they will not return to where people, uh, anchor them psychologically. If they’re thinking about the 2000 tens, they’re gonna settle higher. Within the 2000 tens baseline, you see policymakers are kind of stuck if rates, uh, say too high for too long. We mentioned this before. Refinancing government debt becomes increasingly expensive. Interest costs rise, deficits, widen, and then you get that financial stress that’s spreads through the credit markets. But if rates are pushed too low for too long, borrowing accelerates. And that’s. When inflation resurfaces and confidence in the currency weakens, so then that’s the tug of war. So policymakers, uh, you know, they, they can no longer choose between high rates and low rates. They’re gonna be choosing how to manage, uh, the trade-offs, right? So what’s gonna happen is that you’re gonna see that rates are gonna move within a range. Uh, they come down when something breaks, they move back up when inflation pressures recurrent. Um, that’s why volatility matters more than the exact. Level of rates going forward, in my opinion. So we’re, we’re not returning to free money. We are also not headed to a permanent 1970 style high rate world. What we are doing is entering a time where borrowing costs matter. Again, refinancing is not guaranteed, and rate swings are part of the system, and that naturally leads to the question of inflation. So once you understand why rates. You know, don’t go back to the 2010. The next question becomes, uh, well, if policymakers can’t keep rates high for long and they can’t push them back to zero either, then what are they actually trying to ac accomplish? Well, the answer is that, that the goal is kind of shifted for decades. Economic policy was focused on disinflation, um, you know, pushing inflation lower and lower. Over time, uh, and inflation was actually treated as a failure, and that made sense. In a world with lower debt in a high debt world, that logic sort of breaks down, right? Deflation, which is actually falling prices, increases the real value of debt. Think about that for a moment. Like just in terms of. You know, you have a mortgage and you know, sometime, you know, your parents might have like a 30 year mortgage or something like that, that they’ve had for 25 years. They’ve been paying it off and it’s great. But the bigger thing to notice is the amount of money that they borrowed is actually very small in real world dollars because it’s, you know, 25 years later. See, inflation is bad when it’s, you know, you’re dealing with it, but inflation is. Good at one other thing, which is it’s good at eroding debt. It will make, uh, the amount of the value of the, you know, the actual money that you owe on debt lower over time. So that’s why you can’t have deflation, right? You can’t have deflation because that increases the real value of the debt. It discourages spending, slows growth and makes refinancing harder. So in today’s system, deflation is way, way more dangerous than moderate inflation. And so because of that inflation really isn’t something that I think is quite as important that has to be eliminated at all costs. That, you know, you have to be right at 2%, which is, you know, kind of what the, the fed his, his target is, right? Instead, what you gotta do is you gotta manage it. Of course, that doesn’t mean you want runaway inflation. What they wanna do is have enough inflation to keep nominal growth positive and prevent debt burdens from become heavier again. Why? What do I mean by that? You gotta have enough inflation to erode the debt that we have, right? So this is why that 2% inflation target should be understood. As, you know, kind of aspirational, but not absolute because having a little higher inflation, yeah, it hurts people. It’s, uh, it hurts people on a day-to-day basis, but actually helps with that. So even at, uh, you know, inflation sell a bit higher than, than, than the, you know, 2% fed target say it’s 4%, it’s actually eroding, uh, you know, it is eroding purchasing power, but it’s also eroding debt. It’s, it’s stabilizing debt dynamics. From the system’s perspective, of course that’s helpful. But for us, we’re paying for things on a day-to-day basis to see the cost of eggs and all that. It’s, it’s frustrating, right? And that tension between system stability and personal cost, it’s one of the defining features of the economy heading into 2026. So when you see policymakers tolerate inflation, uh, longer. Then you think they should or step in quickly When markets kind of wobble, it’s not confusion or incompetence, it’s actually constraint because debt limits the available choices. Rates are managed within a range. Inflation is guided and not eliminated. Now put those together and you get the environment we’re moving into, which is an economy where markets can look. Resilient, even while people feel stretched, right? I mean, that’s kinda what we’re feeling. Everybody’s like, oh, these markets are doing fantastic, you know? But then, you know, you look at consumer confidence, it goes down. It’s been going down every month. This is an environment where asset prices recover faster than wages, and we’re understanding how policy reacts becomes a real advantage. So that’s kind of my macro setup for 2026. Um, you know, with that framework, we can start looking into the first prediction I’ll make. And again, these are not, you know, crazy predictions. Uh, they are just generalized things that I think you’re gonna see. So, like the first one is that the markets will stop being reliable proxy for the economy. You could argue that’s already happened, right? Markets in the economy kind of stopped correlating. We saw it after the financial crisis, right? We saw it very clearly even during COVID. The decoupling itself is not new. What’s new is that that decoupling is no longer temporary. It’s become the baseline that’s become the new normal. Uh, for most of modern history people had a fairly reliable mental model, right? You probably do. If you grew up in the eighties and nineties, uh, as a kid or whatever, when the economy felt bad, layoffs, we growth falling in con incomes, markets usually reflected the pain. Right. Sometimes there was a gap. Sometimes markets recovered a little earlier, but eventually things kinda re converged. The economy healed. We just caught up in the markets and lived experience kinda lined up. Now that’s the model that most people still have in their heads, and that’s why so many people feel so confused right now. I mean, I feel confused by it. So what’s changed going into 2026? You know, it, it is, it’s structural Now. We’re no longer living in a system where policy intervenes only during emergencies. We are, uh, in a system where policy is always on, debt is permanently high, rates are actively managed, inflation is tolerated rather than eliminated. And as a result of that, markets aren’t really necessarily responding primarily to how. The economy feels to people they’re responding. Uh, you know, it’s responding to refinancing needs. Liquidity management. Uh, confidence preservation. That’s a very different signal. COVID is the clearest example of that ship, but it’s, it’s important to understand it correctly. So in 2020, the economy was literally shut down, right? Unemployment exploded. Uh, small businesses were collapsing, right? Like, this is COVID and yet markets bottom quickly. We saw that and then bam. All time highs, even though life kind of felt terrible for a lot of people. And that wasn’t because the economy was healthy, it was because policy overwhelmed fundamentals. And at the time that felt extraordinary. It felt very different. Like this doesn’t make any sense. What’s different now is that we’re still using the same playbook but with out in obvious crisis. So intervention is no longer reactive. It’s, you know, uh, it’s preventative. So what do I predict for 2026? Well, markets are gonna stop being a reliable proxy for economic health. Uh, you, you people can just stop talking about that. Like it, like it, it means anything anymore. Markets going to increasingly reflect how constrained policymakers are and how much liquidity is in the system, and how aggressively risk is being managed. They’re not gonna, the markets are not gonna tell you. About affordability, wage pressure, or whether life feels easier or harder for people. Right. Those are completely gonna, those are, it’s just a standard thing now that those are uncorrelated and the gap is not, uh, abnormal anymore. It’s. The operating environment. So what do you do with that information? Well, for an individual investor, this environment requires a real mindset shift, right? You can’t rely on your gut anymore. You can’t say, man, I feel like this economy doesn’t feel good. So the market’s gonna look at the, I mean, you, you, you know, a lot of people feel like the economy doesn’t feel good to them because of inflation, because of what happened with interest rates and all that stuff, right? But look it, you’ve got. Record breaking, uh, stock market numbers. You can’t rely on your gut anymore. Your gut is telling you the economy feels bad. For many people, that’s absolutely true. Costs are high. Again, things feel tight, and the instinct is to wait to sit in cash. To assume markets would reflect that pain, but that instinct used to work. And in this system it doesn’t because markets are no longer pricing in how the economy feels. They’re pricing policy response. Liquidity and constraints. So if you wait for the economy to feel good before you act, it’s gonna be way too late. So instead of asking, does the economy feel weak, you need to start asking different questions. You need to ask how constrained policymakers are, how quickly liquidity will return if markets wob on it, and where capital tends to flow first when policy steps sit. In other words. You gotta start really thinking about investing, right? Like you gotta, like right now. Now I’ve talked, I’ve beat this over many times before, but you know, you have, if you’re, if you’re saving money right now and you’re looking and you are wondering what to do, look for things that are on sale now. I spent real estate’s on sale right now. Right? Get your money into the markets one way or another. That’s what I would say. Whatever it is that you want to invest in. Don’t let your money just erode because this lack of correlation is, it’s a really, really important thing and it’s, it’s gonna continue to happen and you know what else is gonna happen Because of that, you’re gonna see an increasing widening up the wealth gap. People whose income is tied primarily to wages are, are gonna experience that inflation directly, right? Their money’s trapped in the real economy where costs rise faster than income. But investors on the other hand, have an opportunity to participate in the markets that are supported by this sort of unnatural infrastructure that I just mentioned, right? As asset prices are gonna continue going up. Now, I’m not here to judge whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, I’m just telling you how it’s functions. So the investor class increasingly benefits from asset appreciation, right? Early access to liquidity. While lower income groups often can participate in that upside. Even as their cost of living rise, because they’re not in the markets, they’re not, they don’t own assets. So again, you have to stop, you know, using how the economy feels is your primary investing signal. If you wanna protect and grow your wealth in this environment, you need to understand how policy reacts, how you know liquidity moves, how assets behave when the system is under constraint. And in other words, uh, you know. Frankly, you just need to be part of the winning class, which is the investor class. Alright, so that’s kind of, uh, hopefully that made sense to you. Here’s another prediction for you, and this is probably more related to some of the things that we talk about usually, but I’ll say that multifamily and commercial real estate are going to finish their washout, and the window is gonna start to really close again. I’ve talked about this. Before, you’ve probably heard me say this, but let’s talk about multifamily and commercial real estate again, because you know, this audience doesn’t need just theory. You’ve already lived through the pain or the past two years you’ve seen deals blow up, capital calls go out, refinancings fail. So the real question going on in 2026 is not whether real estate breaks. It’s already, it already did. It already did. The real question is how much longer this phase lasts and what replaces it. My view is that 2025 into early 2026, um, represents the final phase of this unwind in the beginning of stabilization. I’m not predicting an immediate boom, not a return to 2021 by any means, but the end of obvious distress. So what’s happened already from 2022 to 2024? Multifamily and commercial real estate absorbed the fastest rate shock in modern history. Many of you lived through that. I lived through that. It’s painful. Debt costs doubled or tripled. Cap rates moved hundreds of basis points. You know, bridge debt structures broke, uh, refinancing assumptions collapsed. Now, a lot of the deals, I mean, I would say most of the deals, uh, uh, that, you know, kind of imploded, uh, shared the same DNA, you know, peaking price, uh, purchases, uh, during peak prices in 2021, early 2022. Uh, you know. Floating rate thin or negative cash flow based on, you know, the rates at the time. Maybe it was positive business plans that were really dependent on refi and rent growth. Um, those deals though, have largely already defaulted, recapitalize, or, you know, they’re being quietly handed back. And that matters because markets don’t keep breaking the same wave forever. If, if you’re seeing right now and if you’re in our investor club, you are. 30% discounts on a regular basis. Right? On a regular basis compared to the peak. Don’t assume that’s gonna last. That this is the key point I wanna make very clearly. If you’re looking at multifamily or commercial deals today that are trade trading at that 30% below where they were a couple years ago, you should not assume that window stays opening. Definitely because the level of discount there, uh, the level of discount exists because. Dried up liquidity, uh, because of that violent rate reset, uh, uncertainty. But here’s the thing, markets don’t stay frozen forever and as soon as pricing stabilizes, even at higher cap rates, which are going to be higher than they were, because you’re not gonna see interest rates down at zero, capital is gonna start to move again. And stabilization doesn’t require rates to go back to zero. It just requires some level of predictability. So here’s the sequence of what happens first, you know, the distress slows, uh, you see less and less defaults, and then slowly but surely cap rates stop expanding, right? That alone brings back buyers. Then as rates drift mo lower and volatility declines, lenders reenter selectively, debt becomes a billable again. It’s not cheap. It’s definitely usable and that brings more liquidity. When I say liquidity, in this context, I’m talking about just more deals getting done. And once liquidity returns, cap rates don’t stay wide forever. They compress, right? It’s competition. And again, when they compress, they’re not gonna go back to 2021 levels, but enough to meaningfully lift asset values from distressed pricing. This can happen faster than people expect, right? People underestimate the fact that there is an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines right now in money market funds, short term treasuries, private capital, waiting for clarity. That capital isn’t, you know, permanent. The moment investors believe that rates of peak, that prices of stabilized downside risks is contained, that money starts to chase yield. When it does the transition from, nobody wants this, everyone wants exposure again, can happen surprisingly fast. In other words, I’m not saying I think this will happen in 26, but the shift from a market that is on sale, which I’ve described it as to a market that is starting to look a little frothy, can really be just a couple of years. And in that situation, I’d rather be a net seller, right? You wanna be accumulating. During this phase of for sale so that you can sell in froth. So what this means is that the market is, you know, uh, is not a market to wait for everything to feel perfect, because by the time it does, the obvious discounts are gonna be gone. And if you wait for perfect clarity, you’re gonna be competing, you competing with institutional capital, with large private funds and, and, and yield hungry money coming outta cash. The opportunity is not assuming distress lasts forever. It is. It’s in recognizing when the market is transitioning from forced selling, which is what is happening even now to price discovery. So ultimately, the prediction is this multifamily and commercial real estate, that that washout is completed in 2026 and the window created by distress really starts to close. Deep discounts don’t persist. Once market stabilized, which I think is what’s gonna happen, and then I think you’re gonna start to see a shift. You’re gonna start to see more deals, more liquidity, and that’s gonna return faster than people expect. In other words, this is gonna be the end of, you know, sort of this bargain basement, you know, panic pricing. And once real assets stabilize and liquidity returns, attention inevitably turns, uh, to the currency, those assets are priced in. Which brings us to the prediction number three. That dollar, okay, the dollar doesn’t collapse, but it does continue to erode. It slowly leak, right? Let’s talk about the dollar, ’cause you hear about this all the time, right? A nausea, you hear the, the weakening of the dollar. Um, this is one of those topics that where people tend to jump to extremes. You know, on one side you hear the dollar is about to collapse. On the other side you hear the dollar’s strong and everything’s fine. I think, um, the truth is somewhere in, in the middle. And my prediction for 2026 is simple. Um, again, the dollar doesn’t really explode. It doesn’t get replaced. It can just continues to erode slowly but surely. And that’s how reserve currencies actually behave when debt gets high. Right. So why no collapse, right? Because you got like people out there, uh, worried about the collapse of the US dollar. The US dollar is gonna remain dominant, not because it’s perfect, but because there’s no real alternative at scale. There just isn’t. Okay? There’s no other currency with markets as deep, as liquid and as widely used for trade debt and collateral. So, you know, reserve currencies, you know, you hear about the, the worry about us being the reserve currency. Well, reserve currencies don’t disappear overnight. They erode gradually, but they don’t disappear overnight. And that erosion shows up not as a crash, but again as persistent inflation, right? It’s rising, you know, real asset prices, which is again, where you wanna be, and a slow loss of purchasing power over time. Again, that brings us back to the whole issue of debt we were talking about, right? So in a highly indebted system, policymakers are not incentivized to aggressively defend the currency at all costs, right? So very high interest rates might strengthen the dollar in the short term, but they also make debt harder to service and financial stress worse, right? So instead of choosing strength or collapse. Um, you know, policy drifts towards tolerance, right? Inflation is allowed to run a little hotter than people expect, because again, it’s gonna erode that debt. The currency weakens slowly, therefore, rather than violently, right? Again, currency weakening. It’s that, it, it’s so entwined with this idea of inflation because debt becomes easier to manage in real terms. And one of the things I hear, and I’ve been sort of in these conversations back and forth with, um. At least one of you out there, uh, in, in emails is that, you know, I hear, uh, that, that, that there’s a, a serious problem for interest rates because of, you know, China, uh, selling US treasuries. And because of that you might get the collapse of the dollar. In fact, in this conversation, it was not only about China, but also Europe. Which, you know, I hadn’t actually heard anybody mention that before, but I guess that’s out there in the ecosystem and some of the newsletters. Now, all that sounds scary, but it really misunderstands how the system actually works. What exactly happens when someone or a country sells treasuries? Well, they don’t dis, they, they don’t just destroy the dollars. What they’re doing is they just swap $1 asset for another, right? The dollars don’t even lead the system. They change hands. So this idea of China selling off all it t trade, well, China’s been, uh, reducing its treasury holdings for years and the dollar hasn’t collapsed. The market absorbed it because treasuries are the deepest, most liquid market in the world. And then this idea of Europe, of of Europe actually dumping treasuries because, you know, they’re not happy with Donald Trump and what he’s doing in Ukraine and all that, that would be an absolute nightmare for, for Europe. That would hurt their own economy. That’s the last thing that an indebted government wants. So foreign selling, yeah, sure it’s gonna move yields, but it, it’s not gonna implode the dollar. But the reality of the, uh, erosion of the dollar is real. I don’t think anybody questions that anymore, and I think that is another reason that you need to be buying. Real assets. You need to be buying equity. You need to be on the side of the investor class. Okay? That’s, that’s how you combat all of this. So the real takeaway here ultimately is that, you know, it isn’t, uh, to abandon the dollar, right? It isn’t. It’s, it’s just to stop pretending that holding cash is neutral. It’s not, it, most of your wall suits and assets that, that can’t adjust. You know, they can’t grow as, you know, as, as asset prices grow, then you’re making a bet on currency stability that literally no one believes is, is going to be the base standard anymore. Everybody knows, every economist, every country, every everywhere knows that these currencies are eroding. You don’t freak out about the dollar, but don’t, don’t, don’t be like heavily in dollars. Start getting into the markets. Alright, well, you know, I’m talking a lot about esoteric macro stuff, but let’s kind of get into some stuff that you might think is fun, more fun maybe. Okay. You, a lot of you are into Bitcoin. Well, I think that, you know, Bitcoin is gonna continue to mature. And the next look, leg up looks like, you know, because of more adoption, not because of hype, which isn’t maybe not as, as, as fast and violent, but it’s, it’s, it’s a lot more predictable. For those of you who are still unfortunately listening to the likes of Peter Schiff about Bitcoin, you gotta stop doing that because Bitcoin is not tulips. Right? A lot of people still talk about it like it’s a fad that could just vanish. We’re long past that phase. Bitcoin is, is, is a $2 trillion asset and in the history of the world, there has never been a $2 trillion asset that went to zero. Is it volatile? Yeah, it is. It can absolutely continue to be wildly volatile, but you’re not going to zero. And my prediction is not overly crazy. It’s just that. Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in price, but it’s not become, not because of speculative, uh, you know, because it’s a speculative trade anymore, right? I think it’s because of adoption. Uh, adoption is going to become the real meaningful driver of market capitalization. So what do I mean by that? It just means more people are seeing it as a real asset, and it has to become, when it becomes a real asset class, everyone has to have some of it. Every major institution has to have some of it because it’s an its own asset class. And when they do that, it just drives up the entire market capitalization of that asset. And when you have an asset that has a finite amount, which in the case of Bitcoin, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. You have constant adoption, constant slow, but persistent growth in market capitalization, the asset has to become more expensive. Now, what do I mean by this adoption? Well, places that you would never think in a million years, a few years ago, that that would be buying Bitcoin or you know, ETFs, B to Bitcoin ETFs are doing. So Harvard. Harvard is a great example. Because it’s not, it’s not crypto influencer, right? It’s actually one of the most conservative, brand sensitive pools of capital in the world. But their endowment management, uh, disclosed roughly 443, uh, million dollars in its position in BlackRock, uh, BlackRock, iShares Bitcoin, Bitcoin Trust, which is ibi for those of you who, who, uh, don’t know, that’s how you can just go to your New York Stock Exchange and, and buy. Bitcoin ETFs with ibit. Now, whether you love this whole Bitcoin idea or hate it or whatever, that’s a signal that is increasingly treated like a portfolio asset. It’s not a fringe experiment, and it’s not only universities. Uh, institutional comfort is it’s just there, right? Um, custody, uh, custody regulated vehicles, positioning, size, risk controls, those kinds of things are all become part of the Bitcoin uh, environment. Many countries are already holding meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Uh, even the US has, there’s a, there is a formalized Bitcoin reserve. Now we aren’t actively buying it, but here’s an interesting thing with Bitcoin, you can, when it is, uh, the way that the US is accumulating Bitcoin is through seizures. Alright? Bad guy gets caught. His boats, his house and his Bitcoin get, uh, confiscated. So the US will sell the house, they will sell the gold, they will sell the boats, but they will keep the Bitcoin. What does that tell you? You know? And, and there’s a lot of nations that are actually openly holding and, and buying Bitcoin. I mentioned the US China. This always seems to be, uh, you know, anti Bitcoin. Well, they actually own quite a bit the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, El Salvador. Bottom line is there’s a big change in narrative, right? That this is a real asset. So this is something that, you know, even if it’s 1% of a major, uh, institution’s assets or less than that, or whatever, it’s part of it. And that adoption alone can move prices from, from here. And that’s what I think a lot of people miss because they’re like, well, you already had a big move and you know, instead a hundred, it’s 80 or 90 or a hundred, whatever. It’s, it’s not going much better, bigger than that. Well, Bitcoin is, is actually really small relative to global pools of capital. So at this stage, adoption alone. Not even the crazy mania of the past can make a non-trivial increase in market capitalization and therefore a mark, you know, a non-trivial increase in the actual price of Bitcoin. All it’s gonna take, and you’re gonna see this, you’re gonna see more endowments, you’re gonna see more sovereign wealth pool, pensions, mod model portfolios, all they guys daisy side, when you know, even with a small allocation. It doesn’t take too much to overwhelm the available float because Bitcoin is scarce and a lot of it’s held tightly. So as far as Bitcoin goes, what do I think is gonna happen? I believe all time highs are gonna get challenged. They’re gonna get broken again in 2026, not because again, everyone’s suddenly becoming a crypto maximas, but because adoptions could just gonna continue to grow. The wild card, I should say, is that the US moving from, we hold. What we seized in terms of Bitcoin to actively acquiring reserves could be enormous catalyst. And there is a lot of talk about this right now. Um, if the market ever believes that the US is a consistent buyer, even in a constrained budget neutral way, that changes the psychology fast. And in that scenario, I think 200,000 plus, uh, $200,000 plus Bitcoin by the end of 2026 becomes very plausible. Zooming out. I’ve said this before, you may think I’m crazy, but again, because of adoption, I think that Bitcoin is at a million dollars five to seven years from now. So what does that mean for you? Well, I mean, I think at the end of the day, if you don’t own some, you might want to, I’m not gonna give you financial advice, but again, just like Harvard’s doing it, you know, major, major endowments are saying, well. You know, maybe we’ll just buy, like, you know, 2% of that, 2% of our, our, uh, endowment will be made of something like that, right? Uh, you know, it’s just even a very small amount, but exposure to it makes a lot of sense. So I think that is something to highly consider if you are still on zero when it comes to Bitcoin. All right, now here’s my last, uh, prediction. You may have heard me talking about this before as well, that AI becomes a deflationary force that policy makers finally wake up to. And I think this is actually one of the most important and misunderstood economic developments, um, that is currently already out there. But I think it’s, it’s gonna be really recognized. By the end of 2026. Okay. Artificial intelligence is gonna stop being just a tech story, and it’s gonna become a macroeconomic story. I think that by the end of 2026, artificial intelligence is clearly, uh, you know, it’s clearly, um, going to be boosting corporate earnings while beginning to materially reshape the labor force. Um, and what’s gonna happen is that central banks and policymakers are gonna start treating it. Is a genuinely deflationary force over the next several years, and they’re gonna try to have to figure out what to do about it. And again, going back to our earlier conversation, because deflation is really a real problem for a country with an enormous amount of debt. So let’s get a little bit into the whole deflationary uh, conversation. So artificial intelligence at its core is a productivity machine, right? It allows companies to produce more. Without, with fewer inputs, fewer hours, fewer people, fewer stakes and productivity always shows up in profits before it shows up in everyday life. Right now, lower cost per transaction, faster execution, fewer people doing the same amount of work, widening margins without price increases. That’s the tell. That’s when profits rise without raising prices, something deflationary is happening underneath the surface. The biggest impact there is the labor market, right? It’s gonna be impossible to ignore. And this is where the conversation really shifts because artificial intelligence doesn’t need to eliminate jobs outright to matter. It only needs to reduce the number of people required to do it, right? So you’re thinking the labor markets, you’re gonna see a lot of this. You’re gonna see more slowing in hiring. Um, even while productivity expectations rise, and I think by late 2026, the public conversation is gonna change from will artificial intelligence affects jobs someday to why aren’t companies hiring the way they used to? And of course, that’s when people are gonna start paying attention and they’re gonna notice it’s deflationary because it’s going to be because artificial intelligence is gonna push down the cost. Of services, administration, customer support, research, and eventually decision making itself. That’s why it’s, it’s deflationary, it’s structural, right? Just think of all those things you can do for so much cheaper. That is what deflation is, right? And again, we mentioned before deflation is not something central banks are comfortable with because of debt and because debt heavy systems rely on nominal growth. Deflation makes debt heavier in real terms as opposed to what we said before, which is that inflation actually erodes debt. And that is a, a very, very challenging problem. And by 2026, I think you’re gonna hear a lot about this, you know, policy problem that we have. Which is innovation versus, you know, deflation. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide finance. Financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Alright, well, so that’s basically it for my, uh, predictions. And I know I’ve kind of. Off on many different tangents, so hopefully it’s useful to you at least to start thinking and doing some of your own research. Bottom line is this, I mean, as, as a investor, what can you do? I think the big story here is understanding that, um, you need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have. Who own things, who own assets, and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. And so, you know, my best, uh, won’t call it advice, but my own belief is that it is a, it is a very good time to look around and look for assets that are underpriced because I think everything is going to expand and it’s gonna ex expand. Uh, and you don’t wanna be caught, you know, on the, uh, dollar side of that equation. So. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. Happy New Year. I’ll see you next week. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.