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My guest today is Dan Wang. Dan is a technology analyst and author who spent six years living in China studying its manufacturing ecosystem and tech development, best known for his new book Breakneck. Dan offers the most nuanced framework I've encountered for understanding US-China competition. We explore a critical asymmetry: it's far harder for the US to rebuild manufacturing capacity than for China to improve scientific research, with profound implications for AI, national security, and investment returns. For investors, Dan explains the "ByteDance problem"—why exceptional Chinese companies trade at massive discounts due to Communist Party unpredictability and geopolitical risks. He argues China is a "high agency" society that executes relentlessly while America deliberates endlessly, yet also reveals the societal cost. We discuss innovation, state capacity, and investing across both superpowers. Please enjoy my conversation with Dan Wang. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Ramp. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to Ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. – This episode is brought to you by Ridgeline. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to ridgelineapps.com to learn more about the platform. – This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at Alpha-Sense.com/Invest and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:05:55) China's Engineering State and Social Engineering (00:12:15) US-China Competition: Innovation and Manufacturing (00:19:41) The Future of US and China: Technological and Economic Perspectives (00:25:22) Cultural and Work Ethic Comparisons (00:39:09) Investing in China: Opportunities and Risks (00:44:43) Future Equilibrium States Between US and China (00:48:32) China's High Agency and Infrastructure (00:49:58) Lawyerly Tendencies in US Society (00:53:41) Comparing US and Chinese Societal Structures (00:57:59) China's Historical Lessons and Future Prospects (01:10:39) AI and Technological Competition (01:15:30) Vertical Integration in Chinese Companies (01:26:39) The Kindest Thing
The national security landscape has radically transformed in the last ten months. To help make sense of the unprecedented policies of this administration, we welcome former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Sullivan joins David Rothkopf and Ed Luce to explore Trump's unpredictable approach to alliances, the Middle East, the US-China relationship, and more. Don't miss this critical discussion. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David led off the show with more upward momentum for the AI trade: Salesforce shares up sharply after the company said it expects revenue of more than $60 billion in 2030. Taiwan Semiconductor's quarterly beat and guidance added to positive market sentiment. Rare earth stocks extended their parabolic rise amid the U.S.-China dispute over Beijing's export controls. The anchors react to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman's response to the backlash surrounding his decision to have ChatGPT allow erotic chats. Also in focus: The comments Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol made to Cramer that sent the stock higher, Fed Governor Waller's latest message on everything from rate cuts and inflation to a softer labor market.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Tensions between the U.S. and China are inflamed yet again — with the tech sector in the crossfire. In the latest move, Beijing has threatened to restrict the trade of rare earth magnets and metals, which are critical for making high-tech products, from microchips to smartphones to electric vehicles. On POLITICO Tech, host Steven Overly sits down with Liza Tobin, a geopolitical risk adviser and former China director on the National Security Council, to discuss the shaky state of the U.S.-China relationship and why the coming weeks will prove pivotal. Steven Overly is the host of POLITICO Tech and covers the intersection of politics and technology. Nirmal Mulaikal is the co-host and producer of POLITICO Energy and producer of POLITICO Tech. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Markets are hopeful that we get some kind of new US-China detente on trade ahead of a purported Xi-Trump summit "later this month". The stakes couldn't be higher. Plenty more to talk about as well as metals continue to scream higher in a slightly nervy market. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. No substack post today on the John J. Hardy substack, but here's a link discussed in today's pod (HT FTAlphaville) on What happens's when Chinese resolve meets American rent-seeking? Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
In this episode of Pekingology, CSIS Senior Fellow Henrietta Levin is joined by Sarah Beran, who managed the U.S.-China relationship in senior roles at the State Department, the American Embassy in Beijing, and the White House National Security Council. Ahead of President Trump's potential meeting with President Xi on the margins of the 2025 APEC Leaders Meeting, Sarah explains how U.S.-China diplomacy and summitry actually work. Sarah unpacks the tough negotiations that set the stage for conversations between the two nations' leaders, what Chinese officials want most from these dialogues, and how President Xi has evolved as a diplomat over his long tenure.
Presidents Trump and Xi are expected to meet soon. Brian McCarthy covers the latest in trade tensions and tit-for-tat moves ahead of a sit-down. “Something's going to have to give a lot, in a public way,” he argues – one of the two will have to “lose a lot of face” before an agreement is reached. He also discusses how the U.S. can get around China's rare earth mineral restrictions within the next 18-24 months.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Know Your Risk Radio with Zach Abraham, Chief Investment Officer, Bulwark Capital Management
October 15, 2025 - Chase provides a comprehensive analysis of the current market conditions, focusing on volatility, the US's financial support for Argentina, trends in the natural gas market, the complexities of US-China trade relations, and the implications of interest rate changes on the economy. He emphasizes the need for careful navigation through these turbulent times, highlighting potential risks and opportunities.
US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.European bourses are mostly higher, SMI bid post-Nestle results and NQ outperforms after strong Q3 TSMC earnings.USD mixed vs. peers, GBP leads whilst AUD was pressured by a weak jobs report.USTs are firmer, fleeting upside in OATs after PM Lecornu survives the 1st no confidence vote; now awaiting the 2nd vote.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound despite rising geopolitical tensions, XAU forms another new ATH.Looking ahead, highlights include Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann.Earnings from Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Global trading of steel, lumber, and rare earth minerals makes our companies and industries and economies work. And yet, right up there with those examples is an agricultural commodity many people don't like and won't eat: soybeans. Soybeans are a huge focus of the trade talks between the U.S. and China, and there is a lot at stake between now and the end of the year, especially for U.S. soybean farmers. China has been actively diversifying their sources of soybeans away from the United States, and they have developed at least two viable alternatives: Brazil and Argentina. The U.S. has less actively (and only lately) started diversifying their customer base for exported soybeans, leaving farmers with a bumper crop and no one to sell it to. In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers the soybean supply chain and its intersection with geopolitics: Starting with an overview of the global soybean market and how soybean trade is being affected by tariffs Why soybean farmers are upset with the country of Argentina - and the Federal government How the United States actually took soybean production away from China in the 1950s and 1960s, but now stands to lose their place as a prominent global source Links: Kelly Barner on LinkedIn Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter Art of Supply on AOP Subscribe to This Week in Procurement
US President Trump said they are in a trade war with China, and if the US don't have tariffs, they don't have national security, while he stated that tariffs are a very important tool for defence.The US Senate is set to leave for the week on Thursday and is nowhere near ending the shutdown, according to a journalist.BoJ's Tamura said the BoJ should push rates closer towards levels deemed neutral, but does not need to raise rates sharply or tighten monetary policy now, given both upside and downside risks.US President Trump said Israeli forces could resume fighting in Gaza as soon as he gives the word if Hamas doesn't uphold the ceasefire deal, according to CNN.APAC stocks took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where most major indices ultimately gained; European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (Aug), EZ Trade Balance (Aug), Philly Fed (Oct), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from Fedʼs Waller, Barkin, Barr, Miran, Bowman & Kashkari, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde, BoCʼs Macklem, BoEʼs Greene & Mann, Supply from Spain & France, Earnings from TSMC, Bank of New York Mellon, KeyCorp, Charles Schwab, United Airlines, ABB & Bankinter. Suspended Releases: US Weekly Claims, PPI (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep). Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
US President Donald Trump says Prime Minister Narendra Modi has agreed that India will stop buying Russian oil, as American tariffs hit Indian exports to the United States. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted at a possible de-escalation of the US–China trade war, while Argentina's manufacturing sector is feeling the side effects of Javier Milei's free-market policies.
Shane joins mid-week for an update on the US government shutdown, including a look at impacted services, and where negotiations stand to re-open the government. We also touch on recent developments surrounding US-China trade talks. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy
According to the IMF, the UK is on course to record the highest inflation in the G7 this year. Sean Farrington talks to a senior economist about what this means for the UK economy in the long term and for Chancellor Rachel Reeves' budget plans in the short term. And we'll reporting on the latest round of the US China trade war. The US government is bullish, but are US businesses also up for the fight? We hear the views of a US importer. Also, Soho used to be at the heart of the British music industry. But the owner of a legendary Tin Pan Alley recording studio tells us business rates are making her studio unviable against a backdrop of home recording trends.
US equities were mostly higher in Wednesday trading as stocks posted modest gains in an up-and-down session, with the Dow Jones closing down 4bps, while the S&P500, and Nasdaq finished up 40bps and 97bps respectively. A few moving pieces today, including the continued ratcheting up of US-China trade angst, buy-the-dip optimism, earnings tailwinds, pickup in M&A, and focus on dovish Powell commentary yesterday. October Empire State manufacturing survey beat, posting third positive read in past four months.
China and U.S. trade tensions have continued into a 2nd straight week, with President Trump threatening a cooking oil embargo. Kevin Green joins Diane King Hall to make sense of the latest tensions taking shape, and what it means for market volatility in general. On the earnings front, KG sees some tailwinds for ASML (ASML), particularly for its smartphone and AI business segments. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (MS) topped 3Q estimates by a wide margin, with investment banking growing at an exponential rate. KG says it continues to build on a strong week for the financials group as a whole. For today's session, he's watching 6725 to the upside for the S&P 500 (SPX) with 6640 acting as a potential downside level to monitor.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Episode 691: Neal and Toby unpack the latest chapter in the US-China trade war and how markets reacted to tensions renewed. Then, auto-parts supplier First Brands has its CEO step down after a financial implosion leaves billions of dollars of debt. Next, the Nobel prize is awarded to 3 economists who introduced the concept of “creative destruction” to describe the economic growth made by innovations. Meanwhile, recently fired Penn State coach James Franklin gets paid an exorbitant amount to leave. Finally, what you need to know in the week ahead. 00:00 - Trivia night 3:15 - Trade war renewed 8:15 - First Brands implodes 12:30 - Nobel Prize goes to economists 18:30 - James Franklin gets $45M buyout 22:30 - Week Ahead Get your paper tablet at https://www.remarkable.com today Get your MBD live show tickets here! https://www.tinyurl.com/MBD-HOLIDAY Subscribe to Morning Brew Daily for more of the news you need to start your day. Share the show with a friend, and leave us a review on your favorite podcast app. Listen to Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.swap.fm/l/mbd-note Watch Morning Brew Daily Here: https://www.youtube.com/@MorningBrewDailyShow Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
This week we talk about trade wars, TACO theory, and Chinese imports.We also discuss negotiation, protectionism, and threat spirals.Recommended Book: More Than Words by John WarnerTranscriptIn January of 2018, then first-term US President Trump announced a slew of tariffs and trade barriers against several countries, including Canada, Mexico, and those in the European Union.The most significant of these new barriers and tariffs were enacted against China, though, as Trump had long claimed that China, the US's most important trade partner by many measures, was taking advantage of the US market; a claim that economists tepidly backed, as while some of the specifics, like those related to intellectual property theft on the part of China, were pretty overt, the Chinese government fairly brazenly gobbling up IP and technology from US companies that do business in the country before hobbling those US interests in China and handing that IP and technology off to their own, China-born copies, claims about a trade deficit were less clear-cut—most of those sorts of claims seemed to be the result of a misunderstanding about how international trade works.That said, Trump had made a protectionist stance part of his platform, so he kicked off his administration by imposing a package of targeted tariffs against specific product categories from China, including things like solar panels and washing machines. Those were followed by more tariffs on steel and aluminum—from a lot of countries, not just China—and this implementation of trade barriers between the US and long-time trade partners, which had mostly enjoyed barrier-free trade up till that point, kicked off a trade war, with the Trump administration announcing, out of nowhere, new tariffs or limitations, and the country on the pointy end of that new declaration announcing their own counter, usually something the US sells to their country, while in the background, both countries tried to negotiate new trade terms on the down-low.There was a lot of tit-for-tatting in those first couple years of the first Trump administration, and they led to a lot of negotiations between the US government and these foreign governments, which in turn led to the lifting of many such barriers, though the weaponization of barriers continued, with the administration, for instance, announcing a tariff on all imports from Mexico until the Mexican government was able to halt all illegal immigration coming into the US; negotiation ended that threat, too, but this early salvo upset a lot of the US's long-time allies, while also making it clear that Trump intended to open negotiations with these sorts of threats, whenever possible—which had the knock-on effect of everyone taking the threats pretty seriously, as they were often incredibly dangerous to specific industries, while also taking them less seriously because it was obvious they were intended to be a negotiating tactic.When Trump left office, a bunch of international relationships had been scarred by this approach to trade deals, and when Biden replaced him, he dropped most of the new tariffs against long-time allies, but kept most of the China tariffs in place, especially those related to green technologies like electric vehicles and semiconductors, the local-made versions of which were becoming a big focus for the Biden administration. The administration then went on to expand upon those tariffs, against China, in some cases.What I'd like to talk about today is how this approach to trade protectionism and negotiation has ballooned under the second Trump administration, and what a new threat against China by Trump might mean for how the relationship between these two countries evolves, moving forward.—Trump's second administration opened with an executive order that declared a national emergency, claiming that the Chinese were trafficking drugs, especially synthetic opioids like fentanyl, into the US, and that this allowed criminals to profit from destroying the lives of US citizens.This declaration allowed him to unleash a flurry of tariffs against China, first imposing 10% on all Chinese imports, then increasing that to 20% in March of 2025.China retaliated, imposing tariffs of 15% on mostly US energy products, like coal and natural gas, and on some types of agricultural machines, while also engaging in some legal pressure against US companies, like Google. They followed this up with tariffs against meat and dairy products, and suspended US lumber import rights, and disallowed three US firms from selling soybeans to China.The US reciprocated, and China reciprocated back. There was a period of spiraling broad tariffs and import bans in the mid-2025 between the US and China, which led to an aggregate baseline tariff on Chinese imports of 104%, which was followed with an aggregate Chinese baseline tariff against US goods of 84%. The US then upped theirs to 145%, and China raised theirs to 125%.Again, vital to understanding this spiral is that the Trump administration made pretty clear that they were doing this mostly as a negotiating tactic. There were claims that they could solve the US deficit by raising tariffs so high that the funds from those tariffs would pay off the country's debt, but that's generally not considered to be realistic. Instead, the consensus view is that Trump likes to play negotiating hardball, likes to step into negotiations with the upper-hand, being able to say, give me what I want and I'll reduce the pain you're experiencing, basically, and this play against China was another attempt to make that kind of advantage stick.China, for its part, seemed like it was done with the posturing at that point, though: it announced, after its retaliatory tariffs reached 125%, that it would simply ignore all further increases on the US government's side, because the whole thing is just kind of a joke and it's beneath them to keep playing this game.Not long after that, Trump announced that the tariffs against China would come down substantially, but not to zero; Trump said this was decided after discussions with China, and Chinese officials said they hadn't been in contact with the Trump administration about any of this—which is something that seems to happen quite a bit with the Trump administration.During this period of spiraling trade barriers, China was able to establish better and more open trade agreements with other nations in Southeast Asia, including South Korea and Japan. China also reduced it US Treasury holdings, reducing its exposure to the US economy at a moment in which the US government was betting big on policy that many economists considered to be ham-handed at best, completely nonsensical, delusional, and harmful at worst.During that spiral, before things cooled off, China also began applying protections on locally sourced and refined rare earths, which are a category of mineral that are vital for modern electronics and things like solar panels, batteries, semiconductors, and electric vehicles.China makes and owns the rights to the vast majority of the current global supply of these materials, mining about 70% of them and controlling about 90% of global processing. And cutting them off, or even truncating their flow, is considered to be a huge strategic threat. The US has been slowly investing in alternative supplies for such things, but many of them are difficult or expensive to produce in the proper volume, and it'll likely be a decade or more before those alternative sources can be properly exploited, replacing the volume currently imported from China.Back in June, China granted permits to US businesses that would be allowed to import rare earths, but that supply remained tenuous—a bit of a counter to Trump's ongoing tariff threats that could seemingly arise out of nowhere, messing up everyone's plans. The Chinese seemed to want to leverage this supply in the same way, and keeping things limited while issuing a few permits meant the flow could kind of continue, but could also be slowed or cut off, again, at a moment's notice.In early October, the Chinese government announced new curbs on the export of rare earths and related technologies, just three weeks before a scheduled meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. These new curbs further limited what could be imported to the US, even if there were intermediary nations involved, and also tightened their grip on anything related to mining, smelting, recycling, and producing products, like powerful magnets, from such materials.It's worth mentioning here, too, that these sorts of materials are increasingly vital for the production of high-tech military goods. If the US were to lose access to sufficient volumes of them, the US military would have a very hard time making missiles, replacing satellite components, building tanks and drones—it would give China a significant advantage, probably for years, in terms of upgrading and maintaining their military hardware.Despite that, and despite the US government's claims that it intended to replace Chinese sources of these materials, theoretically limiting Chinese leverage in these upcoming talks, progress in that department has been minimal, so far; about a billion dollars worth of investment in rare earths supply chains were announced over the past year or so, but further investment is considered to be unlikely in the near-future, and it'll be a while before these investments will pay off, if they ever do.Shortly after that announcement by the Chinese, President Trump threatened to enforce a new 100% tariff on Chinese imports, beginning on November 1, or potentially even sooner, raising tariff levels to just shy of what they were back in April of 2025, at the peak of the US-China trade protectionism threat-spiral.He also said he didn't see any reason to meet with Xi if they were going to limit rare earths in this way, but later clarified that the meeting hadn't been cancelled, and said that he set the implementation date for that new threatened tariff rate to Nov 1 because that would give the Chinese the opportunity to back down on their new trade barriers before they chatted.Global markets, which are sometimes a good barometer for how informed folks think these sorts of negotiations will play out, have been relatively calm about all this, though there have been some significant tumbles in the US market, including a recent drop of about 2.7% for the S&P 500, marking the worst day for the US market since April, back when the tariff threats last reached this kind of peak.One stance that's become popular in trading circles over the past year is the so-called TACO theory, which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out; the idea being that Trump is never really serious about any of these threats, he just likes to talk a big game and then hopes the other side will feel threatened enough to give him what he wants during negotiations—but if they don't, he steps back from all his big talk and quietly gives in to the other side, especially if they have leverage.Some analysts are assuming that's what's happening now, as evidenced by Trump's own statements about giving China the chance to deescalate—giving them specific instructions for how to let things calm down, rather than making these threats and suggesting they're permanent, or not giving the other side any rationale for why it's happening.There's a chance, though, that there's some truth to the opposing theory that this is part of a larger plan by the Trump administration to create a new trade war that's meant to dominate headlines and concerns for a while, maybe as far into the future as next year's elections, all of which is meant to conceal other efforts by the administration, like the military occupancy of American cities and the administration's vehement objection to releasing the so-called Epstein files, which allegedly contain many references to Trump and other powerful people within his administration, which in turn would further connect him to a renowned pedophile.The Republican-controlled congress has made a massive effort to keep those files from being released, and Trump has become well-known for saying and doing headline-grabbing things whenever something inconvenient for him starts bubbling up in the news.So while there's a chance this back-and-forth will end just before those upcoming trade talks, both sides taking their fingers off the trigger, as it were, in order to make a deal, there's also a chance elements of this will be spun into a larger narrative, a war of sorts meant to dominate headlines and conceal other things that the administration would prefer to keep off the front page.Show Noteshttps://apnews.com/article/rare-earths-china-united-states-trade-supply-chain-de92222cda02dc85064c697911c6dea7https://apnews.com/article/tariffs-timeline-trade-war-trump-canada-mexico-china-a9d714eea677488ef9397547d838dbd0https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3318694/china-cuts-us-treasury-holdings-third-month-amid-trade-war-debt-ceiling-fearshttps://apnews.com/article/china-us-trump-tariff-threat-trade-talks-cc4bd30c3b1bcf2eb2676bc0e66efba0https://apnews.com/article/trump-inflation-federal-reserve-powell-88358f4955fd86ef3c86f5e8e089e775https://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-tariffs-china-ai-642b042b1ebe1d1930eb93bf51943e3fhttps://apnews.com/article/trump-xi-china-cc47e258cfc6336dfddcc20fa67a3642https://apnews.com/article/china-earths-exports-trump-dad99d532f858f04d750d0b8c50e5ed6https://time.com/7292207/us-china-trade-war-trump-tariffs-timeline/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_warhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariffs_in_the_first_Trump_administrationhttps://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/2019/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-date-charthttps://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trumps-fresh-tariff-assault-threatens-chinas-fragile-economy-d0b3a00dhttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn828kg8rmzo This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe
Tuesday Midweek Market Update: US-China Trade Tensions and Earnings Insights In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides a midweek market update for Tuesday, October 14th. The day saw sideways trading following a significant sell-off on Friday and a rally on Monday, predominantly driven by ongoing US-China trade negotiations concerning China's export controls on rare earth minerals. Brian discusses China's dominance in rare earth minerals and the potential long-term response from the US, including strategic reserves and new mining developments. He also touches on Jerome Powell's comments on inflation and job markets, noting little change from the last FOMC meeting. Additionally, Brian highlights strong Q2 earnings reports, especially from major banks, as a positive market signal. He concludes with a perspective on gold as an inflation hedge versus the S&P 500, emphasizing the latter's superior long-term performance. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:17 US-China Trade Tensions and Rare Earth Minerals 02:12 Jerome Powell's Comments on Inflation and Jobs 02:31 Q2 Earnings Reports and Market Reactions 02:56 Small Business Optimism and Gold Market Insights 04:54 Conclusion and Final Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Today, we look at markets taking the US-China trade stand-off quite seriously, while retail meme-stock madness continues apace as seen in many names pumping to new highs yesterday. We also look at the wild action in gold and especially silver, discuss the latest drop in crude oil prices, note that earnings season begins in earnest today with many of the big US banks reporting, talk macro and FX, geopolitics and more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic
China's ties with Southeast Asia states are increasingly consequential for regional stability and global geopolitics. Over the past two decades, China has become the region's largest trading partner and a major source of investment and infrastructure financing. At the same time, China growing military presence and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea have caused anxiety and have prompted a number of Southeast Asian nations to seek closer security ties with the United States and other partners. The Trump administration's policies of imposing tariffs, reducing foreign assistance, and implementing stricter immigration regulations have begun to erode US influence across the region, further encouraging Southeast Asian countries to rely on each other and to diversify their relationships with external partners. To discuss Beijing's evolving approach to Southeast Asia and the efficacy of its policies, we are joined on the podcast today by Dr. Chong Ja Ian. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore and a nonresident fellow at Carnegie China. Ian's research focuses on Chinese politics, foreign policy, and US-China relations. Timestamps[00:00] Intro[01:50] China's Tools and Objectives in SEA[03:02] Economic Relations with SEA[05:52] Success and Failures of Beijing's SEA Strategy[07:47] Regional Media and Influence[11:40] SEA Views on China: Consensus and Discord[14:55] Regional Strategy Post-Trump[18:22] SEA Reactions to China Taking Taiwan by Force[22:40] Crisis Planning and How it Could Change[24:10] Long-Term Outlooks for China-SEA Relations
More pressure pinned markets ahead of Tuesday's session as trade tensions reared their head again. Kevin Hincks reports from the @cboeglobalmarkets to explain how this "back and forth" may be part of a larger negotiation. He later touches on the start of earnings season with big banks like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) issuing their quarterly reports. Many stocks were lower or flat, though Kevin notes the high bar heading into these earnings.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Thierry Wizman thinks the market is clinging to hopes of a U.S./China trade de-escalation by the end of the year. He talks about the possibility of a meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi; however, more than just trade, the U.S. and China are also in the middle of a maritime power struggle. Thierry expects more posturing and volatility ahead in the coming weeks.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
What would the market look like if there was no U.S-China trade deal? David Ericson of Ag Optimus urges his producers to have a plan for that scenario. Topics: - Government shutdown nears two-week mark - No news on U.S.-China trade deal - New contract highs in cattle
Listen to the SF Daily podcast for today, October 14, 2025, with host Lorrie Boyer. These quick and informative episodes cover the commodity markets, weather, and the big things happening in agriculture each morning. The US government shutdown is impacting trade data releases. Chinese soybean imports surged 13% year-over-year in September, with a 24% increase from Brazil. US-China trade tensions remain, with potential tariff increases. Livestock markets are strong, with tight cattle supplies driving prices. Weather forecasts include cold fronts in Ohio and thunderstorms in central Iowa. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
HEADLINE: China's Coordinated Aggression in the South China Sea: Analyzing the Philippine Vessel Ramming Incident GUEST NAMES: John Batchelor (Host) and Jim Fanell, Retired US Navy Intelligence Officer 1000-WORD SUMMARY: The program featured an in-depth discussion between host John Batchelor and Jim Fanell, a retired United States Navy intelligence officer, focusing on a recent and troubling ramming incident in the contested waters of the South China Sea's Spratly Islands. This incident involved Chinese vessels deliberately ramming a Philippine resupply ship that was en route to a Philippine outpost, marking another escalation in the ongoing territorial disputes that have made the South China Sea one of the world's most volatile maritime flashpoints. Fanell provided expert analysis that fundamentally reframes how this incident should be understood. Rather than viewing it as an isolated action by an overzealous ship captain acting independently or a spontaneous confrontation that escalated beyond control, Fanell argues that the ramming was a carefully coordinated operation directed from the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party. This assessment carries significant implications for understanding China's strategic intentions and the level of state control exercised over what might otherwise appear to be tactical-level maritime incidents. The coordinated nature of the operation becomes evident when examining the composition and deployment of Chinese forces involved in the incident. Fanell detailed that the ramming was not carried out by a single vessel but was instead supported by a substantial flotilla of Chinese maritime assets. This included vessels from China's maritime militia—ostensibly civilian fishing vessels that operate under state direction and serve paramilitary functions—multiple Coast Guard cutters representing China's official law enforcement presence at sea, and significantly, a warship from the People's Liberation Army Navy, representing the direct involvement of China's military forces. This multi-layered deployment of assets from different organizational structures within China's maritime forces demonstrates a level of coordination and planning that could only originate from centralized command authority. The presence of military, paramilitary, and quasi-civilian forces operating in concert reveals a sophisticated strategy designed to apply overwhelming pressure while maintaining some degree of plausible deniability about the military nature of the confrontation. Fanell emphasized that this incident is not an isolated occurrence but rather part of a consistent and identifiable pattern of Chinese operations concentrated in several key areas of the South China Sea. He specifically mentioned Scarborough Shoal, Sandy Cay, and Second Thomas Shoal as focal points of these coordinated Chinese activities. Each of these locations represents a contested feature in the South China Sea where the Philippines maintains claims and, in some cases, physical presence through grounded vessels or small outposts that serve as territorial markers. Scarborough Shoal, located approximately 120 miles from the Philippine coast, has been under effective Chinese control since a 2012 standoff, despite lying well within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone as defined by international law. Second Thomas Shoal has become particularly contentious because the Philippines deliberately grounded a World War II-era vessel, the Sierra Madre, on the shoal in 1999 to serve as a permanent outpost. The vessel houses a small garrison of Philippine marines, and China has repeatedly attempted to prevent resupply missions to this outpost, creating recurring confrontations. The pattern Fanell describes reveals a strategy of incremental pressure designed to exhaust the Philippines' ability and willingness to maintain its presence in these disputed areas. By consistently interfering with resupply operations, China aims to make it prohibitively difficult, dangerous, and expensive for the Philippines to sustain its outposts, potentially forcing their eventual abandonment and allowing China to assert de facto control. Fanell's analysis places this aggressive maritime behavior within the broader context of China's strategic objectives in the South China Sea. The Chinese Communist Party's ultimate goal, according to Fanell, is to establish complete sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, despite the overlapping claims of multiple neighboring countries including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan, and despite a 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that rejected China's expansive claims as having no legal basis under international law. Control of the South China Sea would provide China with several strategic advantages. The region contains vital shipping lanes through which approximately one-third of global maritime trade passes, including substantial energy shipments to East Asian economies. The area is believed to contain significant oil and natural gas reserves, though estimates vary widely. Additionally, control of the South China Sea would extend China's defensive perimeter far from its mainland coast and provide greater ability to project power throughout the Indo-Pacific region. Fanell also contextualized the ramming incident within the current state of US-China relations, suggesting that China's aggressive actions are partly designed to apply pressure on the United States during a period of heightened economic tensions between the two powers. The United States has maintained that it has a national interest in preserving freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and has conducted regular "freedom of navigation operations" to challenge what it views as excessive Chinese maritime claims. The United States also maintains a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, though the precise circumstances under which this treaty would be invoked in response to incidents in disputed waters remains a subject of ongoing strategic ambiguity. The incident and Fanell's analysis raise critical questions about the trajectory of tensions in the South China Sea and the potential for escalation. If China continues to employ increasingly aggressive tactics, coordinated at the highest levels of government, the risk of a serious confrontation—whether with the Philippines directly or with the United States in its role as a treaty ally—increases substantially. The international community faces the challenge of responding to Chinese actions that systematically erode the rules-based international order while stopping short of the kind of overt military aggression that would trigger clear and immediate responses. 1939 REUBEN JAMES
US equity futures sharply higher with S&P up around 1.5%. Follows worst S&P session on Friday since early April Liberation Day slide. European markets are higher while Asia's ended largely lower. Bonds are firmer in Asia after Treasuries made big gains on Friday. 2-year yield flat to 3.5% and 10-year flat to 4.1%. Dollar slightly higher versus European FX majors and Japanese yen, softer versus Aussie. Oil up. Gold rallies to fresh record high. Big gains also in copper and industrial metals space. Bitcoin near two-week low. Spike in US-China trade tensions remained talking point over the weekend after President Trump on Friday announced additional 100% tariffs on China in response to what he described as hostile actions by Beijing involving announcement of rare earths export curbs, a Qualcomm antitrust probe, tightened customs inspections of Nvidia chip imports, and new port fees for US ships. Companies Mentioned: RPMGlobal Holdings, Big Yellow Group, Blackstone, Caterpillar
In Episode 230 of Growing Pains with Nicholas Flores, Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), breaks down U.S.-China relations as a "cautious ceasefire" amid deep economic ties and mutual distrust. He contrasts China's vision under Xi Jinping with U.S. internal debates, the rise of China's technology sector, Hong Kong, and global futures. You can find Scott Kennedy at CSIS online (https://www.csis.org/people/scott-kennedy), and his podcast, China Field Notes, on YouTube and everywhere you listen to podcasts. 10/03/2025
US President Trump announced on Friday that the US is to impose a tariff of 100% on China beginning on November 1st, which will be over and above any tariffs that they are currently paying, while US export controls on critical software will also start on November 1st.US President Trump posted on Sunday, “Don't worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn't want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”APAC stocks began the week in the red as the region reacted to last Friday's Trump tariff threats and the subsequent Wall St sell-off, although US equity futures rebounded due to the softer tone from Trump over the weekend, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.7% on Friday.US BLS said it will publish the September CPI report on Friday, 24th October 2025, at 08:30EDT/13:30BST.Looking ahead, highlights include German WPI (Sep), OPEC MOMR, Speakers including BoE's Mann, Fed's Paulson & RBA's Hauser. Holidays: US Columbus Day (US bond market will be closed) & Canadian Thanksgiving.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Watch the full episode on our website: https://chinauncensored.tv/programs/podcast-312 The Chinese Communist Party is infiltrating US cities. Michael Sobolik explains how the CCP's United Front Work Department launders its propaganda through local communities and politicians, using them to advance Beijing's agenda inside America. Why settle for diplomacy when you have subversion? Read Michael Sobolik's book, “Countering China's Great Game: A Strategy for American Dominance” https://www.amazon.com/Countering-Chinas-Great-Game-Dominance/dp/1682479501
There is no doubt that volatility will return in the markets, but Friday's scare may be short lived as the trend remains strong and yet to be broken. Friday may end up as a shake-out of the scared and most losses re-couped during a few short trading hours on Monday. But given the right mix the week ahead can turn out to be dark red. since I am no poker player I not all in. I used the many green days to reduce my exposure, and if my take on a green week ahead is not correct the alternative will allow me to buy at discounts.This an much more in this week's episode of "Trading Tips With Jim" as we head into week 42 with US/China trade tension and first stack of Q4 results.Don't miss it!
Deepseek's AI Claims, Huawei's Chip Ambitions, and US/China Tech Competition Chris Riegel analyzed the escalating tech competition between the US and China, focusing on Chinese AI firm Deepseek and noting its claims of superiority were potentially misleading due to non-transparency and reliance on Nvidia technology. He discussed Huawei's chip fabrication efforts and ambitions, concluding that US sanctions, particularly restricting ASML tools, keep China one to one and a half generations behind. The US scale advantage, exemplified by investments like Colossus, remains significant in the AI competition.
London Silver Shortage Leads To Squeeze, As US & China Hoard Yesterday was a historic day in the silver market. But not just because the price finally broke the $50 level. There was some wild action beneath the surface, as a key spread between the London and New York silver pricing essentially broke down, in one of the more significant events we've seen yet in silver history. And fortunately, Vince Lanci is here today to break it down and explain exactly what happened. So to find out more, click to watch the video now! - To find out more about the latest production numbers from Fortuna Mining go to: https://fortunamining.com/news/fortuna-delivers-production-of-72462-gold-equivalent-ounces-for-the-third-quarter-of-2025/ - To get access to Vince's research in 'Goldfix Premium' go to: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ - Get your free copy of Arcadia's Silver Report here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/p/arcadia-silver-report-an-overview - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by Fortuna Mining, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-fortuna-silver-mines/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise
In this episode of the Hot Options Report, host Mark Longo from discusses the intense trading activity on October 10th. Major indices like VIX, SPY, SPX, small caps, and the Qs experienced significant movements, with VIX contracts spiking to nearly 2 million due to escalating US-China trade tensions. The episode also highlights notable trades in single-name equity options, including SoFi, Palantir, Open, Intel, Amazon, Apple, Wolf, AMD, Tesla, and Nvidia. The episode is sponsored by Public.com and provides insights into how traders reacted to market shifts and options volumes. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- All investing involves risk. Brokerage services for US listed securities, options and bonds in a self-directed brokerage account are offered by Open to the Public Investing Inc, member FINRA & SIPC. Not investment advice. Options trading entails significant risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Customers must read and understand the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before considering any options strategy. Options investors can rapidly lose the value of their investment in a short period of time and incur permanent loss by expiration date. Certain complex options strategies carry additional risk, including the potential for losses that may exceed the original investment amount, and are only available for qualified customers. Index options have special features and fees that should be carefully considered, including settlement, exercise, expiration, tax, and cost characteristics. See Fee Schedule for all options trading fees. There are additional costs associated with option strategies that call for multiple purchases and sales of options, such as spreads, straddles, among others, as compared with a single option trade. Rebate rates vary monthly from $0.06-$0.18 and depend on the particular security, whether the trade was placed via API, as well as your current and prior month's options trading volume. Review Options Rebate Terms here. Rates are subject to change. Go to public.com/optionsbrief to learn more.
Jenny Horne and Sam Vadas examine several notable events from Friday's trading session, including a lack of a vote in Congress pertaining to the ongoing government shutdown. But, the biggest item of the day: President Trump's Truth Social post suggesting 'massive' tariff hikes being considered on China.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
This week Jordan and Mike discuss the recent comments from Trump that reignited the US/China trade war. Cattle finished the week strong with 6 straight higher closes.
Listen to the SF Daily podcast for today, October 10, 2025, with host Lorrie Boyer. These quick and informative episodes cover the commodity markets, weather, and the big things happening in agriculture each morning. The impact of US-China trade tensions on commodity markets has caused soybean futures to weaken due to a $50 per metric ton import cost increase and potential Chinese retaliation. The ongoing US government shutdown is limiting data flow and affecting markets. The International Monetary Fund forecast a weaker 2026 global economy, partly due to US tariffs. Deere & Company is seeing opportunities overseas despite a 20% drop in early purchase orders. Cattle futures are supported by tight supplies, with box beef prices showing some stability. Strong winds and low humidity in parts of Minnesota raise wildfire risks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
(0:00) Introducing Joe Tsai (0:49) Owning the Nets and Liberty, Caitlin Clark's impact on the WNBA, does the NBA need fixing? (6:07) Alibaba origins, China's pullback on capitalism (10:10) US vs China rivalry: the AI race, are we destined for conflict, and what can the US learn from China? (19:46) AI application in large businesses (21:52) Managing corporate culture at Alibaba's scale, Nets predictions (23:17) AI adoption, job anxiety, and AGI views in China Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana's global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket - https://www.polymarket.com/ Follow Joe Tsai: https://x.com/joetsai1999 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg
China & the Hill is now on Substack! China & the Hill is a weekly newsletter covering Washington DC's China-focused debates, actions, and reactions. Readers will receive a curated digest of each week's most pressing U.S.-China news and its impact on businesses and policy, and can listen to the top stories in podcast form on the U.S.-China Podcast.
On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with a mounting scandal in the UK after prosecutors dropped charges against two men accused of spying for China. Topics include: Fingers pointed and claims that PM Keir Starmer and his Labour appointees were unwilling to present evidence of China as an "enemy,” ongoing reluctance to target PRC foreign agents under a new UK enforcement scheme, and reports of Beijing's latest play to move forward with its "mega embassy." From there: The EU Commission proposes tariff hikes to shield its steel industry from PRC overcapacity, why talk of a trillion dollar resolution to the US-China trade war is probably overblown, and a soybean bailout prompts questions about U.S. agriculture priorities generally. At the end: Reports of a "China-linked plot" to throttle communications in New York City, and the NBA's reunion with Chinese basketball fans continues in Macao and San Antonio.
In this episode of China Decode, Alice Han and James Kynge break down Xi Jinping's next five-year plan and the politics behind it, explore the US-China soybean trade war and its impact on American farmers, and dive into the rise of a viral “Chinese Trump” comedian. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Market Update and Geopolitical Insights: October 7th Analysis In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the financial markets as of Tuesday, October 7th. He covers the recent performance of the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, highlighting a moderate sell-off in technology and value names. He also discusses the recent government shutdown impacting economic data release and provides insights on various Fed governors' positions on inflation and monetary policy. Additionally, the episode delves into significant geopolitical topics, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on energy prices, evolving US-China relations, and the increasing risks related to maritime shipments. Lastly, Brian addresses a listener's question regarding the health and implications of companies going private. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:09 Federal Reserve Updates 02:51 Geopolitical Insights 03:43 US-China Relations and Global Trade 05:36 Private Companies and Market Liquidity 06:28 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Mike speaks with Nicholas Burns, Managing Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. Burns previously served as the U.S. Ambassador to the People's Republic of China from 2021-2025. They discuss where we are in U.S.-China relations, how the relationship has become much more complicated in recent years, how the U.S. is working with allies and partners in the region, their vital role in supporting U.S. strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, and much more.
Invest Like the Best: Read the notes at at podcastnotes.org. Don't forget to subscribe for free to our newsletter, the top 10 ideas of the week, every Monday --------- My guest today is Dylan Patel. Dylan is the founder and CEO of SemiAnalysis. At SemiAnalysis Dylan tracks the semiconductor supply chain and AI infrastructure buildout with unmatched granularity—literally watching data centers get built through satellite imagery and mapping hundreds of billions in capital flows. Our conversation explores the massive industrial buildout powering AI, from the strategic chess game between OpenAI, Nvidia, and Oracle to why we're still in the first innings of post-training and reinforcement learning. Dylan explains infrastructure realities like electrician wages doubling and companies using diesel truck engines for emergency power, while making a sobering case about US-China competition and why America needs AI to succeed. We discuss his framework for where value will accrue in the stack, why traditional SaaS economics are breaking down under AI's high cost of goods sold, and which hardware bottlenecks matter most. This is one of the most comprehensive views of the physical reality underlying the AI revolution you'll hear anywhere. Please enjoy my conversation with Dylan Patel. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to mentioned content, check out the episode page here. ----- This episode is brought to you by Ramp. Ramp's mission is to help companies manage their spend in a way that reduces expenses and frees up time for teams to work on more valuable projects. Go to Ramp.com/invest to sign up for free and get a $250 welcome bonus. – This episode is brought to you by Ridgeline. Ridgeline has built a complete, real-time, modern operating system for investment managers. It handles trading, portfolio management, compliance, customer reporting, and much more through an all-in-one real-time cloud platform. Head to ridgelineapps.com to learn more about the platform. – This episode is brought to you by AlphaSense. AlphaSense has completely transformed the research process with cutting-edge AI technology and a vast collection of top-tier, reliable business content. Invest Like the Best listeners can get a free trial now at Alpha-Sense.com/Invest and experience firsthand how AlphaSense and Tegus help you make smarter decisions faster. ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes: (00:00:00) Welcome to Invest Like the Best (00:05:12) The AI Infrastructure Buildout (00:08:25) Scaling AI Models and Compute Needs (00:11:44) Reinforcement Learning and AI Training (00:14:07) The Future of AI and Compute (00:17:47) AI in Practical Applications (00:22:29) The Importance of Data and Environments in AI Training (00:29:45) Human Analogies in AI Development (00:40:34) The Challenge of Infinite Context in AI Models (00:44:08) The Bullish and Bearish Perspectives on AI (00:48:25) The Talent Wars in AI Research (00:56:54) The Power Dynamics in AI and Tech (01:13:29) The Future of AI and Its Economic Impact (01:18:55) The Gigawatt Data Center Boom (01:21:12) Supply Chain and Workforce Dynamics (01:24:23) US vs. China: AI and Power Dynamics (01:37:16) AI Startups and Innovations (01:52:44) The Changing Economics of Software (01:58:12) The Kindest Thing
Xi Jinping has built the most advanced surveillance state in human history. But despite Silicon Valley's help and China's Great Firewall, the CCP still fears one thing. In this clip, Xiao Qiang of China Digital Times explains how. Watch the full podcast here! https://chinauncensored.tv/programs/podcast-311
HEADLINE: Trade Slowdown Reflected in Sharp Dip in US-Asia Shipping GUEST NAME: Chris RiegelSUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Chris Riegel about declining Asia-US West Coast shipping, reflecting US-China tariff impacts. Chinese port sailings and container units have dropped 15-20%, with year-end reductions expected. This significant decline indicates a dramatic slowdown in US-China trade beyond initial projections.
PREVIEW HEADLINE: Trade Slowdown Reflected in Sharp Dip in US-Asia Shipping GUEST NAME: Chris Riegel50 WORD SUMMARY: John Bachelor speaks with Chris Riegel about declining Asia-US West Coast shipping, reflecting US-China tariff impacts. Chinese port sailings and container units have dropped 15-20%, with year-end reductions expected. This significant decline indicates a dramatic slowdown in US-China trade beyond initial projections.
(0:00) Introducing Arm CEO Rene Haas (1:08) Lessons from working with Jensen Huang (3:20) Arm's history, understanding Nvidia's dominance in AI, training vs inference, physical AI market size (10:01) China's AI ecosystem, the US-Intel deal, rare earths, creating a US “national champion” (15:35) Manufacturing in America: how to create a culture of excellence? (18:34) US export controls, building in the UK (23:42) US-China AI arms race Thanks to our partners for making this happen! Solana - Solana is the high performance network powering internet capital markets, payments, and crypto applications. Connect with investors, crypto founders, and entrepreneurs at Solana's global flagship event during Abu Dhabi Finance Week & F1: https://solana.com/breakpoint OKX - The new way to build your crypto portfolio and use it in daily life. We call it the new money app. https://www.okx.com/ Google Cloud - The next generation of unicorns is building on Google Cloud's industry-leading, fully integrated AI stack: infrastructure, platform, models, agents, and data. https://cloud.google.com/ IREN - IREN AI Cloud, powered by NVIDIA GPUs, provides the scale, performance, and reliability to accelerate your AI journey. https://iren.com/ Oracle - Step into the future of enterprise productivity at Oracle AI Experience Live. https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/data-ai-events/ Circle - The America-based company behind USDC — a fully-reserved, enterprise-grade stablecoin at the core of the emerging internet financial system. https://www.circle.com/ BVNK - Building stablecoin-powered financial infrastructure that helps businesses send, store, and spend value instantly, anywhere in the world. https://www.bvnk.com/ Polymarket: https://www.polymarket.com Follow Rene: https://x.com/renehaas237 Follow the besties: https://x.com/chamath https://x.com/Jason https://x.com/DavidSacks https://x.com/friedberg Follow on X: https://x.com/theallinpod Follow on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theallinpod Follow on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@theallinpod Follow on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/allinpod Intro Music Credit: https://rb.gy/tppkzl https://x.com/yung_spielburg