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This Week In Startups is made possible by:Hubspot - http://clickhubspot.com/twist1Circle.so - http://circle.so/twistSentry - http://sentry.io/twistToday's show: On the last TWiST episode before Jason goes to Japan and Alex begins on paternity leave, the hosts break down the blockbuster tech news that is kicking off 2026.Discord AND Strava both eyeing billion dollar IPOs, two massive social media apps with millions of daily active users. Jason unpacks Discord's the growth story, from a gaming-first product launch in 2015, to a community/work platform and social media for all. Jason explains why Strava proves that data is the MOAT for consumer apps.PLUS Jason and Alex are joined by Producer Oliver to rank the top CES products. Jason gave his thoughts on the different robots, self driving cars, and multi-fold phones on display.Would you buy a triple-fold phone?Timestamps:(00:00) Discord looks to go public at $7 Billion!(10:05) Hubspot: Check out the guide “How to Get Your First 100 Customers.” Download it for free at http://clickhubspot.com/twist1(13:37) Strava going public and why data IS the moat for consumer software(19:28) Circle.so: the easiest way to build a home for your community, events, and courses — all under your own brand.(22:25) Anthropic's $350B valuation and why it makes sense(31:59) Sentry: New users get 3 months free of the Business plan (covers 150k errors). Go to http://sentry.io/twist and use code TWIST(33:05) Why is China upset about META's Manus acquisition — and why Jason is hopeful for the US-China relationship(37:24) Jason's favorite part of CES: The rise of open source AI!(40:59) Why Jason LOVES his self driving Tesla — why public companies need to be safe and not push too quickly(44:24) Producer Oliver's Top CES Tech products(54:46) Jason's Major Takeway from CES(59:43) How many times can you fold a phone?(1:04:04) New interfaces for smartphones*Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.com/Check out the TWIST500: https://twist500.comSubscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcp*Follow Lon:X: https://x.com/lons*Follow Alex:X: https://x.com/alexLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwilhelm/*Follow Jason:X: https://twitter.com/JasonLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanis/*Thank you to our partners:(10:05) Hubspot: Check out the guide “How to Get Your First 100 Customers.” Download it for free at http://clickhubspot.com/twist1(19:28) Circle.so: the easiest way to build a home for your community, events, and courses — all under your own brand.(31:59) Sentry: New users get 3 months free of the Business plan (covers 150k errors). Go to http://sentry.io/twist and use code TWISTGreat TWIST interviews: Will Guidarahttps://youtu.be/pvJa2pzuXWQEoghan McCabehttps://youtu.be/9dHN4YFkgv4Steve Huffmanhttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reddit-ceo-steve-huffman-on-mod-revolt-building-a/id315114957?i=1000617333424Brian Cheskyhttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/airbnb-ceo-brian-chesky-on-early-rejection-customer/id315114957?i=1000611761112Bob Moestahttps://youtu.be/y2UMzSqX94QAaron Leviehttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/box-ceo-aaron-levie-breaks-down-box-ai-and-generative/id315114957?i=1000612384545Sophia Amorusohttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/sophia-amoruso-on-branding-raising-a-fund-portfolio/id315114957?i=1000601352978Reid Hoffmanhttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/reid-hoffman-on-ais-crescendo-moment-regulation-and/id315114957?i=1000612548498Frank Slootmanhttps://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/snowflake-ceo-frank-slootman-on-moving-the-needle-win/id315114957?i=1000602560622

In this episode, Ben Lorica and Evangelos Simoudis of Synapse Partners to break down the most significant developments from CES 2026. They explore the explosion of humanoid robotics and the transition toward software-defined vehicles before diving into a deep analysis of the shifting US-China export controls on AI chips. Subscribe to the Gradient Flow Newsletter

The reduced vaccine recommendations, U.S.-China relations, and the end of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian migrants. Plus, the oldest woman to complete the Appalachian Trail, Cal Thomas on the coming congressional showdown over Venezuela, and the Thursday morning newsSupport The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donateAdditional support comes from Commuter Bible, the Bible podcast series that matches weekly schedules. On podcast apps and commuterbible.org. Annual plans begin this week.From Dordt University. Dordt's online Master of Social Work program equips students for faithful service in their local communities – until all is made new.And from the Free Lutheran Bible College (FLBC), Plymouth, MN, preparing students to live out their calling through the study of God's Word in authentic community since 1964. At FLBC, biblical truth isn't an elective course—it's the foundation of our academic study. Through the study of God's Word in authentic, Christ-centered community, you'll form a biblical worldview that gives you clarity and confidence for whatever comes next—college, career, family, or ministry. Learn more at flbc.edu/world

With the global order under increasing strain, 2026 is shaping up to be a tipping point for geopolitics. From political upheaval in the United States to widening conflicts abroad, the risks facing governments, markets, and societies are converging faster—and more forcefully—than at any time in recent memory.To break it all down, journalist Julia Chatterley moderated a wide-ranging conversation with Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, and a panel of Eurasia Group experts, to examine the findings of their newly-released Top Risks of 2026 report.One theme dominates the discussion: the United States itself. From an accelerating political revolution at home to a more aggressive projection of power abroad, Washington has become the single biggest driver of global risk. That shift is playing out vividly in the Western Hemisphere, where dramatic developments in Venezuela signal a renewed US willingness to shape political outcomes closer to home.Along with Ian Bremmer, the Eurasia Group panel included Gerald Butts, Vice Chairman; Risa Grais-Targow, Director, Latin America; Cliff Kupchan, Chairman; and Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman, Managing Director, Europe. Their discussion also digs into the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, rising instability among US allies in Europe, intensifying US-China competition, and the growing geopolitical consequences of artificial intelligence—all against the backdrop of a world with fewer guardrails and weaker global leadership.As Bremmer argues, these risks are not isolated. They are symptoms of a deeper transformation: a GZERO world, where power is unconstrained, alliances are fragile, and no single country can—or will—stabilize the international system.Host: Julia ChatterleyGuests: Ian Bremmer, Risa Grais-Targow, Cliff Kupchan, Mujtaba (Mij) Rahman, Gerald Butts Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Even if ChatGPT never existed, the tech giant NVIDIA would still be winning. The end of Moore's Law—says NVIDIA President, Founder, and CEO Jensen Huang—makes the shift to accelerated computing inevitable, regardless of any talk of an AI “bubble.” Sarah Guo and Elad Gil are joined by Jensen Huang for a wide-ranging discussion on the state of artificial intelligence as we begin 2026. Jensen reflects on the biggest surprises of 2025, including the rapid improvements in reasoning, as well as the profitability of inference tokens. He also talks about why AI will increase productivity without necessarily taking away jobs, and how physical AI and robotics can help to solve labor shortages. Finally, Jensen shares his 2026 outlook, including why he's optimistic about US-China relations, why open source remains essential for keeping the US competitive, and which sectors are due for their “ChatGPT moment.”  Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil | @nvidia Chapters: 00:00 – Jensen Huang Introduction 00:17 – Biggest AI Surprises of 2025 04:12 – AI and Jobs: New Infrastructure and Demand for Skilled Labor 09:03 – Task vs. Purpose Framework in Labor 12:31 – Solving Labor Shortages with Robotics 15:14 – The Layer Cake of AI Technology 18:39 – The Importance of Open Source 21:52 – The Myth of “God AI” and Monolithic Models 23:54 – Addressing the “Doomer” Narrative and Regulation 29:25 – The Plummeting Cost of Compute and Tokenomics 35:09 – The Return to Research 37:49 – Future of Coding and Software Engineering 43:20 – The Industries Due For Their “ChatGPT” Moments 46:00 – The Evolution of Self-Driving Cars and Robotics 54:06 – Energy Demand and Growth for AI 58:49 – 2026 Outlook: US-China Relations and Geopolitics 1:04:43 – Is There An AI Bubble? 1:16:20 – Conclusion

First off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week's episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don't seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what's actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn't meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It's simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you're deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you've felt like the economy and the markets aren't really speaking the same language right now, I think you'll find this episode useful. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  You need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have, who own things, who own assets and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast, and today I am going to do something a little bit different. I’m gonna kind of give you. My perspective, maybe predictions I dare say about, uh, the upcoming year in 2026, how I look at it, what I think, uh, uh, is likely outcome and why. Not that I am any smarter than any of you on this stuff, but I’ve actually kind of sat down and, and thought about, you know, the things that are going on in the macroeconomic. Side of things and, um, put some stuff together and, uh, hopefully you’ll enjoy it. We’ll have, uh, that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from. Your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your invest. Get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back everyone, and, uh, happy New Year to you. I forgot to even say that in the intro. How rude of me. Hopefully you had a great holiday, you had a great Christmas, and you’re bringing in the new year with a vision of health and wealth and PO prosperity and all that stuff. So anyway, let’s talk a little bit about, uh, you know what I am. Kinda looking at for 2026. Now, when you think about, well, what are these predictions and what could they be and all that, um, interest rates, inflation markets, you know, uh, let’s set the foundation for how I’m thinking about it, because everything else really kind of builds on it. And the most important thing to understand is that debt. Is really now I think the main character in the economy. I know we, people have been talking about this for a very long time, but I think, I think the debt issue is really, really becoming something that cannot be ignored, and I’ll get into that in a while. Obviously, I’m not saying that inflation and interest rates don’t matter. They matter enormously. Uh, those are the things that people actually feel, right? Higher prices, higher mortgage rates, higher insurance costs. What I’m saying is that the level of debt now determines really how decisions on those things are made from policy makers. You know, how do they respond to inflation and interest rates, recessions market stress. What debt does is it actually kinda limits the range of choices around how policy makers react to all these things. So once you see that, the behavior of the economy starts to, I think, make a lot more sense. So let’s start with. Sovereign debt, and I’m gonna start really basic here because the question is, you know, what exactly is sovereign debt? Okay. And sovereign debt is the money a government owes, okay? In the US it exists because the government consistently spends more than it collects in taxes, and that gap is called the deficit. When that happens year after year, you have an accumulation of debt. Now, when debt is low, it’s, it’s pretty manageable, right? But when debt gets very large, it starts to influence policy decisions, and that’s where we are right now. Uh, here’s the key mechanic that I think most people don’t really think about, right? Governments don’t pay off debt the way you and I, you know, pay off our debt, like mortgage or whatever. They always refinance it, right? So when the US government borrows money, it issues bonds. That’s how it does, those bonds have maturity dates, and when you buy a bond, you’re, you know, you’re loaning the government money. So when a bond matures, the government owes that principle back to you. Right? So that’s, that’s kind of how well we talk about, we talk about debt, but the government doesn’t save money over time to pay off that bond. Like, I mean, that’s the way you would think about it for you and me, right? I mean, at some point you’re like, ah, I really need to pay off this debt. I’m just gonna pay it off with this money that I saved. Instead, what they do is when a bond comes due, it issues a new bond and uses the money from that new bond to pay back the old one. Okay. Now, if that sounds familiar, uh, to you, it’s because it’s pretty much what we would call in plain English refinancing, right? Now imagine though, the government issued a bond a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. That bond matures today, interest rates are much higher, right to pay off the old bond. The government issues a new one at today’s higher rates. So the debt doesn’t disappear, it just becomes more expensive to carry, right? I mean, it’s just like you got a mortgage, you know you had a, a great rate, but you only got it for seven years and all of sudden you gotta refinance it. Gosh, all of a sudden that rate went really higher and your payments are much higher, and the debt payments going up, you know, for the government, what adds to that deficit? It’s a really, really vicious cycle. Now, take that process and multiply it across trillions of dollars of debt. Now you can start seeing why interest rates matter so much in a high debt system. Now, what makes this especially important right now is that for over the last several years, the US issued a very large amount of short-term debt. Short-term debt matures quickly, and that means large portions of government debt. Come due every year and have to be refinanced at whatever the interest rate exists at the time. So even if deficit stock growing tomorrow, which they won’t, the government would still need smooth functioning financial markets just to keep refinancing what it al what already exists now. This is why the economy has become so sensitive to interest rates, liquidity and confidence. Higher interest rates increase the cost of refinancing, right? We’ve mentioned that already. And that pushes deficits higher and forces even more borrowing. So I mentioned liquidity. What is that? Well, liquidity is about how easily money moves through the system. When liquidity is good, bonds are easily absorbed. Banks lend markets function normally, and when liquidity dries up, refinancing becomes fragile. That stress. Stress in the market spreads quickly. And then finally, confidence I mentioned too. Why does confidence matter? Well, confidence matters because investors need to believe that the system is gonna hold together. When confidence weakens, guess what happens? Well, what would happen if you think about it with a loan, a higher risk loan? While investors demand higher yields like refinance, it becomes even more expensive. And problems compound fast. Now, this is why Pol policymakers are extremely uncomfortable with high borrowing costs, reduced lending, falling asset values, and deep recessions. Recessions, by the way, don’t make debt easier to manage. They make it harder by reducing tax revenue and worsening debt ratios. Now that brings me to a, something that I am feeling sort of back and forth with. Um. You know, a listener who sent me some commentary about, you know, the fear of going back to 1970s, eighties style interest rates. But the thing is that I just don’t think that comparison works, and here’s why. Okay, so in the 1970s, the US had far less debt. Interest rates could go very high without threatening the government’s ability to refinance itself. Now today, with debt much larger relative to the economy, very high rates don’t just fight inflation. They stress the entire financial structure, right? You can’t just say, oh, we’re gonna make super high rates because the cost of all that debt the government has is gonna be extraordinarily expensive. Now, that doesn’t mean that rates can’t rise. It means policymakers have far less tolerance for how high and how long rates can stay elevated. It’s a completely different system from the 1970s and eighties. So I think trying to put things into that context is probably not, um, not a, a good way to think about it. So why am I fo focusing on this right now? Uh, instead of a few years ago, because again, we stu we didn’t suddenly become a high debt economy this year. So what changed? Well timing a massive amount of debt that was issued at very low interest rates, as I mentioned before, is now maturing and being refinanced at much higher rates, and that shift is no longer theoretical. It’s happening in real time. Last year, much of that low uh, rate, debt was still in place. Interest costs hadn’t fully reset, but going into 2026, they have no, I, I keep talking about, you know, how much we’re paying an interest, right? Because again, that’s a big difference between now and the 1970s when you could have, you know, you didn’t have as much debt so you could pay more interest on it. Right now, the US is now spending roughly a trillion dollars a year just on interest. Her perspective, right? I mean, what’s a trillion dollars? Uh, what does that even mean for the normal person? Well, for Perce perspective, that’s the defense budget. $1 trillion. It’s more than Medicare, more than most major federal programs. And the thing is that money doesn’t do anything, right. It doesn’t create growth. It just services past borrowing. And this is the point where debt stops being background noise, kind of an annoyance that people just say, well, we’ll kick it to the next generation. It start starts actively shaping, uh, policy decisions because it’s, it’s a thing that you gotta pay for. You gotta keep paying for it. So the takeaway I want you to carry forward is simple. We now live in a system where policymakers don’t have the luxury of letting things break when debt is low. Governments can tolerate deep recessions like you saw in the seventies and eighties and long recoveries. When debt is high, they can’t because even small shocks can just really get outta control quickly. And that’s the framework I think, uh, that I’m using as we move into interest rates, inflation, and what all this means for markets going into 2026. So let’s talk about interest rates. You’ve heard me say that I think that interest rates are gonna come down. Um, they’re gonna continue to tick down a little bit. I don’t think a lot, but I do think there’ll probably be at least one more rate cut. I think, you know, you’re probably gonna have some, um, uh, some lowering in the 10 year and, and the bond market in general. Uh, but interest rates are not gonna go back to 2010, right? They just aren’t. And. The 2010s were not normal. There were a very specific period created by very specific conditions, right? Inflation was persistently low, uh, but just wouldn’t go up. Globalization, uh, push prices down. Capital was abundant. Debt levels, well, they were high, but they’re rising, but they hadn’t become what they are now. And because of that, central banks could hold rates near zero without much consequence. That environment, unfortunately, does not exist now. So today, debt is much higher. Inflation risk is real again, and investors expect to be compensated for lending money long term. So even when rates decline from current levels, they do not return, uh, they will not return to where people, uh, anchor them psychologically. If they’re thinking about the 2000 tens, they’re gonna settle higher. Within the 2000 tens baseline, you see policymakers are kind of stuck if rates, uh, say too high for too long. We mentioned this before. Refinancing government debt becomes increasingly expensive. Interest costs rise, deficits, widen, and then you get that financial stress that’s spreads through the credit markets. But if rates are pushed too low for too long, borrowing accelerates. And that’s. When inflation resurfaces and confidence in the currency weakens, so then that’s the tug of war. So policymakers, uh, you know, they, they can no longer choose between high rates and low rates. They’re gonna be choosing how to manage, uh, the trade-offs, right? So what’s gonna happen is that you’re gonna see that rates are gonna move within a range. Uh, they come down when something breaks, they move back up when inflation pressures recurrent. Um, that’s why volatility matters more than the exact. Level of rates going forward, in my opinion. So we’re, we’re not returning to free money. We are also not headed to a permanent 1970 style high rate world. What we are doing is entering a time where borrowing costs matter. Again, refinancing is not guaranteed, and rate swings are part of the system, and that naturally leads to the question of inflation. So once you understand why rates. You know, don’t go back to the 2010. The next question becomes, uh, well, if policymakers can’t keep rates high for long and they can’t push them back to zero either, then what are they actually trying to ac accomplish? Well, the answer is that, that the goal is kind of shifted for decades. Economic policy was focused on disinflation, um, you know, pushing inflation lower and lower. Over time, uh, and inflation was actually treated as a failure, and that made sense. In a world with lower debt in a high debt world, that logic sort of breaks down, right? Deflation, which is actually falling prices, increases the real value of debt. Think about that for a moment. Like just in terms of. You know, you have a mortgage and you know, sometime, you know, your parents might have like a 30 year mortgage or something like that, that they’ve had for 25 years. They’ve been paying it off and it’s great. But the bigger thing to notice is the amount of money that they borrowed is actually very small in real world dollars because it’s, you know, 25 years later. See, inflation is bad when it’s, you know, you’re dealing with it, but inflation is. Good at one other thing, which is it’s good at eroding debt. It will make, uh, the amount of the value of the, you know, the actual money that you owe on debt lower over time. So that’s why you can’t have deflation, right? You can’t have deflation because that increases the real value of the debt. It discourages spending, slows growth and makes refinancing harder. So in today’s system, deflation is way, way more dangerous than moderate inflation. And so because of that inflation really isn’t something that I think is quite as important that has to be eliminated at all costs. That, you know, you have to be right at 2%, which is, you know, kind of what the, the fed his, his target is, right? Instead, what you gotta do is you gotta manage it. Of course, that doesn’t mean you want runaway inflation. What they wanna do is have enough inflation to keep nominal growth positive and prevent debt burdens from become heavier again. Why? What do I mean by that? You gotta have enough inflation to erode the debt that we have, right? So this is why that 2% inflation target should be understood. As, you know, kind of aspirational, but not absolute because having a little higher inflation, yeah, it hurts people. It’s, uh, it hurts people on a day-to-day basis, but actually helps with that. So even at, uh, you know, inflation sell a bit higher than, than, than the, you know, 2% fed target say it’s 4%, it’s actually eroding, uh, you know, it is eroding purchasing power, but it’s also eroding debt. It’s, it’s stabilizing debt dynamics. From the system’s perspective, of course that’s helpful. But for us, we’re paying for things on a day-to-day basis to see the cost of eggs and all that. It’s, it’s frustrating, right? And that tension between system stability and personal cost, it’s one of the defining features of the economy heading into 2026. So when you see policymakers tolerate inflation, uh, longer. Then you think they should or step in quickly When markets kind of wobble, it’s not confusion or incompetence, it’s actually constraint because debt limits the available choices. Rates are managed within a range. Inflation is guided and not eliminated. Now put those together and you get the environment we’re moving into, which is an economy where markets can look. Resilient, even while people feel stretched, right? I mean, that’s kinda what we’re feeling. Everybody’s like, oh, these markets are doing fantastic, you know? But then, you know, you look at consumer confidence, it goes down. It’s been going down every month. This is an environment where asset prices recover faster than wages, and we’re understanding how policy reacts becomes a real advantage. So that’s kind of my macro setup for 2026. Um, you know, with that framework, we can start looking into the first prediction I’ll make. And again, these are not, you know, crazy predictions. Uh, they are just generalized things that I think you’re gonna see. So, like the first one is that the markets will stop being reliable proxy for the economy. You could argue that’s already happened, right? Markets in the economy kind of stopped correlating. We saw it after the financial crisis, right? We saw it very clearly even during COVID. The decoupling itself is not new. What’s new is that that decoupling is no longer temporary. It’s become the baseline that’s become the new normal. Uh, for most of modern history people had a fairly reliable mental model, right? You probably do. If you grew up in the eighties and nineties, uh, as a kid or whatever, when the economy felt bad, layoffs, we growth falling in con incomes, markets usually reflected the pain. Right. Sometimes there was a gap. Sometimes markets recovered a little earlier, but eventually things kinda re converged. The economy healed. We just caught up in the markets and lived experience kinda lined up. Now that’s the model that most people still have in their heads, and that’s why so many people feel so confused right now. I mean, I feel confused by it. So what’s changed going into 2026? You know, it, it is, it’s structural Now. We’re no longer living in a system where policy intervenes only during emergencies. We are, uh, in a system where policy is always on, debt is permanently high, rates are actively managed, inflation is tolerated rather than eliminated. And as a result of that, markets aren’t really necessarily responding primarily to how. The economy feels to people they’re responding. Uh, you know, it’s responding to refinancing needs. Liquidity management. Uh, confidence preservation. That’s a very different signal. COVID is the clearest example of that ship, but it’s, it’s important to understand it correctly. So in 2020, the economy was literally shut down, right? Unemployment exploded. Uh, small businesses were collapsing, right? Like, this is COVID and yet markets bottom quickly. We saw that and then bam. All time highs, even though life kind of felt terrible for a lot of people. And that wasn’t because the economy was healthy, it was because policy overwhelmed fundamentals. And at the time that felt extraordinary. It felt very different. Like this doesn’t make any sense. What’s different now is that we’re still using the same playbook but with out in obvious crisis. So intervention is no longer reactive. It’s, you know, uh, it’s preventative. So what do I predict for 2026? Well, markets are gonna stop being a reliable proxy for economic health. Uh, you, you people can just stop talking about that. Like it, like it, it means anything anymore. Markets going to increasingly reflect how constrained policymakers are and how much liquidity is in the system, and how aggressively risk is being managed. They’re not gonna, the markets are not gonna tell you. About affordability, wage pressure, or whether life feels easier or harder for people. Right. Those are completely gonna, those are, it’s just a standard thing now that those are uncorrelated and the gap is not, uh, abnormal anymore. It’s. The operating environment. So what do you do with that information? Well, for an individual investor, this environment requires a real mindset shift, right? You can’t rely on your gut anymore. You can’t say, man, I feel like this economy doesn’t feel good. So the market’s gonna look at the, I mean, you, you, you know, a lot of people feel like the economy doesn’t feel good to them because of inflation, because of what happened with interest rates and all that stuff, right? But look it, you’ve got. Record breaking, uh, stock market numbers. You can’t rely on your gut anymore. Your gut is telling you the economy feels bad. For many people, that’s absolutely true. Costs are high. Again, things feel tight, and the instinct is to wait to sit in cash. To assume markets would reflect that pain, but that instinct used to work. And in this system it doesn’t because markets are no longer pricing in how the economy feels. They’re pricing policy response. Liquidity and constraints. So if you wait for the economy to feel good before you act, it’s gonna be way too late. So instead of asking, does the economy feel weak, you need to start asking different questions. You need to ask how constrained policymakers are, how quickly liquidity will return if markets wob on it, and where capital tends to flow first when policy steps sit. In other words. You gotta start really thinking about investing, right? Like you gotta, like right now. Now I’ve talked, I’ve beat this over many times before, but you know, you have, if you’re, if you’re saving money right now and you’re looking and you are wondering what to do, look for things that are on sale now. I spent real estate’s on sale right now. Right? Get your money into the markets one way or another. That’s what I would say. Whatever it is that you want to invest in. Don’t let your money just erode because this lack of correlation is, it’s a really, really important thing and it’s, it’s gonna continue to happen and you know what else is gonna happen Because of that, you’re gonna see an increasing widening up the wealth gap. People whose income is tied primarily to wages are, are gonna experience that inflation directly, right? Their money’s trapped in the real economy where costs rise faster than income. But investors on the other hand, have an opportunity to participate in the markets that are supported by this sort of unnatural infrastructure that I just mentioned, right? As asset prices are gonna continue going up. Now, I’m not here to judge whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, I’m just telling you how it’s functions. So the investor class increasingly benefits from asset appreciation, right? Early access to liquidity. While lower income groups often can participate in that upside. Even as their cost of living rise, because they’re not in the markets, they’re not, they don’t own assets. So again, you have to stop, you know, using how the economy feels is your primary investing signal. If you wanna protect and grow your wealth in this environment, you need to understand how policy reacts, how you know liquidity moves, how assets behave when the system is under constraint. And in other words, uh, you know. Frankly, you just need to be part of the winning class, which is the investor class. Alright, so that’s kind of, uh, hopefully that made sense to you. Here’s another prediction for you, and this is probably more related to some of the things that we talk about usually, but I’ll say that multifamily and commercial real estate are going to finish their washout, and the window is gonna start to really close again. I’ve talked about this. Before, you’ve probably heard me say this, but let’s talk about multifamily and commercial real estate again, because you know, this audience doesn’t need just theory. You’ve already lived through the pain or the past two years you’ve seen deals blow up, capital calls go out, refinancings fail. So the real question going on in 2026 is not whether real estate breaks. It’s already, it already did. It already did. The real question is how much longer this phase lasts and what replaces it. My view is that 2025 into early 2026, um, represents the final phase of this unwind in the beginning of stabilization. I’m not predicting an immediate boom, not a return to 2021 by any means, but the end of obvious distress. So what’s happened already from 2022 to 2024? Multifamily and commercial real estate absorbed the fastest rate shock in modern history. Many of you lived through that. I lived through that. It’s painful. Debt costs doubled or tripled. Cap rates moved hundreds of basis points. You know, bridge debt structures broke, uh, refinancing assumptions collapsed. Now, a lot of the deals, I mean, I would say most of the deals, uh, uh, that, you know, kind of imploded, uh, shared the same DNA, you know, peaking price, uh, purchases, uh, during peak prices in 2021, early 2022. Uh, you know. Floating rate thin or negative cash flow based on, you know, the rates at the time. Maybe it was positive business plans that were really dependent on refi and rent growth. Um, those deals though, have largely already defaulted, recapitalize, or, you know, they’re being quietly handed back. And that matters because markets don’t keep breaking the same wave forever. If, if you’re seeing right now and if you’re in our investor club, you are. 30% discounts on a regular basis. Right? On a regular basis compared to the peak. Don’t assume that’s gonna last. That this is the key point I wanna make very clearly. If you’re looking at multifamily or commercial deals today that are trade trading at that 30% below where they were a couple years ago, you should not assume that window stays opening. Definitely because the level of discount there, uh, the level of discount exists because. Dried up liquidity, uh, because of that violent rate reset, uh, uncertainty. But here’s the thing, markets don’t stay frozen forever and as soon as pricing stabilizes, even at higher cap rates, which are going to be higher than they were, because you’re not gonna see interest rates down at zero, capital is gonna start to move again. And stabilization doesn’t require rates to go back to zero. It just requires some level of predictability. So here’s the sequence of what happens first, you know, the distress slows, uh, you see less and less defaults, and then slowly but surely cap rates stop expanding, right? That alone brings back buyers. Then as rates drift mo lower and volatility declines, lenders reenter selectively, debt becomes a billable again. It’s not cheap. It’s definitely usable and that brings more liquidity. When I say liquidity, in this context, I’m talking about just more deals getting done. And once liquidity returns, cap rates don’t stay wide forever. They compress, right? It’s competition. And again, when they compress, they’re not gonna go back to 2021 levels, but enough to meaningfully lift asset values from distressed pricing. This can happen faster than people expect, right? People underestimate the fact that there is an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines right now in money market funds, short term treasuries, private capital, waiting for clarity. That capital isn’t, you know, permanent. The moment investors believe that rates of peak, that prices of stabilized downside risks is contained, that money starts to chase yield. When it does the transition from, nobody wants this, everyone wants exposure again, can happen surprisingly fast. In other words, I’m not saying I think this will happen in 26, but the shift from a market that is on sale, which I’ve described it as to a market that is starting to look a little frothy, can really be just a couple of years. And in that situation, I’d rather be a net seller, right? You wanna be accumulating. During this phase of for sale so that you can sell in froth. So what this means is that the market is, you know, uh, is not a market to wait for everything to feel perfect, because by the time it does, the obvious discounts are gonna be gone. And if you wait for perfect clarity, you’re gonna be competing, you competing with institutional capital, with large private funds and, and, and yield hungry money coming outta cash. The opportunity is not assuming distress lasts forever. It is. It’s in recognizing when the market is transitioning from forced selling, which is what is happening even now to price discovery. So ultimately, the prediction is this multifamily and commercial real estate, that that washout is completed in 2026 and the window created by distress really starts to close. Deep discounts don’t persist. Once market stabilized, which I think is what’s gonna happen, and then I think you’re gonna start to see a shift. You’re gonna start to see more deals, more liquidity, and that’s gonna return faster than people expect. In other words, this is gonna be the end of, you know, sort of this bargain basement, you know, panic pricing. And once real assets stabilize and liquidity returns, attention inevitably turns, uh, to the currency, those assets are priced in. Which brings us to the prediction number three. That dollar, okay, the dollar doesn’t collapse, but it does continue to erode. It slowly leak, right? Let’s talk about the dollar, ’cause you hear about this all the time, right? A nausea, you hear the, the weakening of the dollar. Um, this is one of those topics that where people tend to jump to extremes. You know, on one side you hear the dollar is about to collapse. On the other side you hear the dollar’s strong and everything’s fine. I think, um, the truth is somewhere in, in the middle. And my prediction for 2026 is simple. Um, again, the dollar doesn’t really explode. It doesn’t get replaced. It can just continues to erode slowly but surely. And that’s how reserve currencies actually behave when debt gets high. Right. So why no collapse, right? Because you got like people out there, uh, worried about the collapse of the US dollar. The US dollar is gonna remain dominant, not because it’s perfect, but because there’s no real alternative at scale. There just isn’t. Okay? There’s no other currency with markets as deep, as liquid and as widely used for trade debt and collateral. So, you know, reserve currencies, you know, you hear about the, the worry about us being the reserve currency. Well, reserve currencies don’t disappear overnight. They erode gradually, but they don’t disappear overnight. And that erosion shows up not as a crash, but again as persistent inflation, right? It’s rising, you know, real asset prices, which is again, where you wanna be, and a slow loss of purchasing power over time. Again, that brings us back to the whole issue of debt we were talking about, right? So in a highly indebted system, policymakers are not incentivized to aggressively defend the currency at all costs, right? So very high interest rates might strengthen the dollar in the short term, but they also make debt harder to service and financial stress worse, right? So instead of choosing strength or collapse. Um, you know, policy drifts towards tolerance, right? Inflation is allowed to run a little hotter than people expect, because again, it’s gonna erode that debt. The currency weakens slowly, therefore, rather than violently, right? Again, currency weakening. It’s that, it, it’s so entwined with this idea of inflation because debt becomes easier to manage in real terms. And one of the things I hear, and I’ve been sort of in these conversations back and forth with, um. At least one of you out there, uh, in, in emails is that, you know, I hear, uh, that, that, that there’s a, a serious problem for interest rates because of, you know, China, uh, selling US treasuries. And because of that you might get the collapse of the dollar. In fact, in this conversation, it was not only about China, but also Europe. Which, you know, I hadn’t actually heard anybody mention that before, but I guess that’s out there in the ecosystem and some of the newsletters. Now, all that sounds scary, but it really misunderstands how the system actually works. What exactly happens when someone or a country sells treasuries? Well, they don’t dis, they, they don’t just destroy the dollars. What they’re doing is they just swap $1 asset for another, right? The dollars don’t even lead the system. They change hands. So this idea of China selling off all it t trade, well, China’s been, uh, reducing its treasury holdings for years and the dollar hasn’t collapsed. The market absorbed it because treasuries are the deepest, most liquid market in the world. And then this idea of Europe, of of Europe actually dumping treasuries because, you know, they’re not happy with Donald Trump and what he’s doing in Ukraine and all that, that would be an absolute nightmare for, for Europe. That would hurt their own economy. That’s the last thing that an indebted government wants. So foreign selling, yeah, sure it’s gonna move yields, but it, it’s not gonna implode the dollar. But the reality of the, uh, erosion of the dollar is real. I don’t think anybody questions that anymore, and I think that is another reason that you need to be buying. Real assets. You need to be buying equity. You need to be on the side of the investor class. Okay? That’s, that’s how you combat all of this. So the real takeaway here ultimately is that, you know, it isn’t, uh, to abandon the dollar, right? It isn’t. It’s, it’s just to stop pretending that holding cash is neutral. It’s not, it, most of your wall suits and assets that, that can’t adjust. You know, they can’t grow as, you know, as, as asset prices grow, then you’re making a bet on currency stability that literally no one believes is, is going to be the base standard anymore. Everybody knows, every economist, every country, every everywhere knows that these currencies are eroding. You don’t freak out about the dollar, but don’t, don’t, don’t be like heavily in dollars. Start getting into the markets. Alright, well, you know, I’m talking a lot about esoteric macro stuff, but let’s kind of get into some stuff that you might think is fun, more fun maybe. Okay. You, a lot of you are into Bitcoin. Well, I think that, you know, Bitcoin is gonna continue to mature. And the next look, leg up looks like, you know, because of more adoption, not because of hype, which isn’t maybe not as, as, as fast and violent, but it’s, it’s, it’s a lot more predictable. For those of you who are still unfortunately listening to the likes of Peter Schiff about Bitcoin, you gotta stop doing that because Bitcoin is not tulips. Right? A lot of people still talk about it like it’s a fad that could just vanish. We’re long past that phase. Bitcoin is, is, is a $2 trillion asset and in the history of the world, there has never been a $2 trillion asset that went to zero. Is it volatile? Yeah, it is. It can absolutely continue to be wildly volatile, but you’re not going to zero. And my prediction is not overly crazy. It’s just that. Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in price, but it’s not become, not because of speculative, uh, you know, because it’s a speculative trade anymore, right? I think it’s because of adoption. Uh, adoption is going to become the real meaningful driver of market capitalization. So what do I mean by that? It just means more people are seeing it as a real asset, and it has to become, when it becomes a real asset class, everyone has to have some of it. Every major institution has to have some of it because it’s an its own asset class. And when they do that, it just drives up the entire market capitalization of that asset. And when you have an asset that has a finite amount, which in the case of Bitcoin, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. You have constant adoption, constant slow, but persistent growth in market capitalization, the asset has to become more expensive. Now, what do I mean by this adoption? Well, places that you would never think in a million years, a few years ago, that that would be buying Bitcoin or you know, ETFs, B to Bitcoin ETFs are doing. So Harvard. Harvard is a great example. Because it’s not, it’s not crypto influencer, right? It’s actually one of the most conservative, brand sensitive pools of capital in the world. But their endowment management, uh, disclosed roughly 443, uh, million dollars in its position in BlackRock, uh, BlackRock, iShares Bitcoin, Bitcoin Trust, which is ibi for those of you who, who, uh, don’t know, that’s how you can just go to your New York Stock Exchange and, and buy. Bitcoin ETFs with ibit. Now, whether you love this whole Bitcoin idea or hate it or whatever, that’s a signal that is increasingly treated like a portfolio asset. It’s not a fringe experiment, and it’s not only universities. Uh, institutional comfort is it’s just there, right? Um, custody, uh, custody regulated vehicles, positioning, size, risk controls, those kinds of things are all become part of the Bitcoin uh, environment. Many countries are already holding meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Uh, even the US has, there’s a, there is a formalized Bitcoin reserve. Now we aren’t actively buying it, but here’s an interesting thing with Bitcoin, you can, when it is, uh, the way that the US is accumulating Bitcoin is through seizures. Alright? Bad guy gets caught. His boats, his house and his Bitcoin get, uh, confiscated. So the US will sell the house, they will sell the gold, they will sell the boats, but they will keep the Bitcoin. What does that tell you? You know? And, and there’s a lot of nations that are actually openly holding and, and buying Bitcoin. I mentioned the US China. This always seems to be, uh, you know, anti Bitcoin. Well, they actually own quite a bit the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, El Salvador. Bottom line is there’s a big change in narrative, right? That this is a real asset. So this is something that, you know, even if it’s 1% of a major, uh, institution’s assets or less than that, or whatever, it’s part of it. And that adoption alone can move prices from, from here. And that’s what I think a lot of people miss because they’re like, well, you already had a big move and you know, instead a hundred, it’s 80 or 90 or a hundred, whatever. It’s, it’s not going much better, bigger than that. Well, Bitcoin is, is actually really small relative to global pools of capital. So at this stage, adoption alone. Not even the crazy mania of the past can make a non-trivial increase in market capitalization and therefore a mark, you know, a non-trivial increase in the actual price of Bitcoin. All it’s gonna take, and you’re gonna see this, you’re gonna see more endowments, you’re gonna see more sovereign wealth pool, pensions, mod model portfolios, all they guys daisy side, when you know, even with a small allocation. It doesn’t take too much to overwhelm the available float because Bitcoin is scarce and a lot of it’s held tightly. So as far as Bitcoin goes, what do I think is gonna happen? I believe all time highs are gonna get challenged. They’re gonna get broken again in 2026, not because again, everyone’s suddenly becoming a crypto maximas, but because adoptions could just gonna continue to grow. The wild card, I should say, is that the US moving from, we hold. What we seized in terms of Bitcoin to actively acquiring reserves could be enormous catalyst. And there is a lot of talk about this right now. Um, if the market ever believes that the US is a consistent buyer, even in a constrained budget neutral way, that changes the psychology fast. And in that scenario, I think 200,000 plus, uh, $200,000 plus Bitcoin by the end of 2026 becomes very plausible. Zooming out. I’ve said this before, you may think I’m crazy, but again, because of adoption, I think that Bitcoin is at a million dollars five to seven years from now. So what does that mean for you? Well, I mean, I think at the end of the day, if you don’t own some, you might want to, I’m not gonna give you financial advice, but again, just like Harvard’s doing it, you know, major, major endowments are saying, well. You know, maybe we’ll just buy, like, you know, 2% of that, 2% of our, our, uh, endowment will be made of something like that, right? Uh, you know, it’s just even a very small amount, but exposure to it makes a lot of sense. So I think that is something to highly consider if you are still on zero when it comes to Bitcoin. All right, now here’s my last, uh, prediction. You may have heard me talking about this before as well, that AI becomes a deflationary force that policy makers finally wake up to. And I think this is actually one of the most important and misunderstood economic developments, um, that is currently already out there. But I think it’s, it’s gonna be really recognized. By the end of 2026. Okay. Artificial intelligence is gonna stop being just a tech story, and it’s gonna become a macroeconomic story. I think that by the end of 2026, artificial intelligence is clearly, uh, you know, it’s clearly, um, going to be boosting corporate earnings while beginning to materially reshape the labor force. Um, and what’s gonna happen is that central banks and policymakers are gonna start treating it. Is a genuinely deflationary force over the next several years, and they’re gonna try to have to figure out what to do about it. And again, going back to our earlier conversation, because deflation is really a real problem for a country with an enormous amount of debt. So let’s get a little bit into the whole deflationary uh, conversation. So artificial intelligence at its core is a productivity machine, right? It allows companies to produce more. Without, with fewer inputs, fewer hours, fewer people, fewer stakes and productivity always shows up in profits before it shows up in everyday life. Right now, lower cost per transaction, faster execution, fewer people doing the same amount of work, widening margins without price increases. That’s the tell. That’s when profits rise without raising prices, something deflationary is happening underneath the surface. The biggest impact there is the labor market, right? It’s gonna be impossible to ignore. And this is where the conversation really shifts because artificial intelligence doesn’t need to eliminate jobs outright to matter. It only needs to reduce the number of people required to do it, right? So you’re thinking the labor markets, you’re gonna see a lot of this. You’re gonna see more slowing in hiring. Um, even while productivity expectations rise, and I think by late 2026, the public conversation is gonna change from will artificial intelligence affects jobs someday to why aren’t companies hiring the way they used to? And of course, that’s when people are gonna start paying attention and they’re gonna notice it’s deflationary because it’s going to be because artificial intelligence is gonna push down the cost. Of services, administration, customer support, research, and eventually decision making itself. That’s why it’s, it’s deflationary, it’s structural, right? Just think of all those things you can do for so much cheaper. That is what deflation is, right? And again, we mentioned before deflation is not something central banks are comfortable with because of debt and because debt heavy systems rely on nominal growth. Deflation makes debt heavier in real terms as opposed to what we said before, which is that inflation actually erodes debt. And that is a, a very, very challenging problem. And by 2026, I think you’re gonna hear a lot about this, you know, policy problem that we have. Which is innovation versus, you know, deflation. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide finance. Financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Alright, well, so that’s basically it for my, uh, predictions. And I know I’ve kind of. Off on many different tangents, so hopefully it’s useful to you at least to start thinking and doing some of your own research. Bottom line is this, I mean, as, as a investor, what can you do? I think the big story here is understanding that, um, you need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have. Who own things, who own assets, and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. And so, you know, my best, uh, won’t call it advice, but my own belief is that it is a, it is a very good time to look around and look for assets that are underpriced because I think everything is going to expand and it’s gonna ex expand. Uh, and you don’t wanna be caught, you know, on the, uh, dollar side of that equation. So. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. Happy New Year. I’ll see you next week. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Although geographically distant from Chinese shores, Latin America and the Caribbean occupy an important place in Chinese foreign policy. In the past decade, China has significantly expanded its influence in the region. The main vector of Chinese involvement has been economic, including securing access to commodities such as soybeans, copper, oil, and lithium, creating markets for Chinese companies, and deepening financial ties through trade, lending, and infrastructure investment.  On December 10, China released a new white paper on its relationship with Latin America and the Caribbean, the third such document following earlier editions in 2008 and 2016. The White Paper characterizes the region as “an essential force in the process toward a multipolar world and economic globalization.” Its release came on the heels of the Trump Administration's release of its National Security Strategy, which places unprecedented emphasis on the Western Hemisphere and asserts that the US seeks a region “free of hostile foreign incursion or ownership of key assets,” highlighting the growing strategic salience of Latin America and the Caribbean in US-China competition.  To discuss the new White Paper and the implications of China's policies in the LAC for the United States and US-China relations, we are joined by Dr. Evan Ellis. Dr. Ellis is a research professor of Latin American studies at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. He previously served on the Secretary of State's policy planning staff with responsibility for Latin America and the Caribbean as well as international narcotics and law enforcement issues.Timestamps:[00:00] Introduction[02:07] US and China on a Collision Course? [04:50] Chinese Priorities in Latin America [08:33] U.S. Security Risks from Chinese Port Investments[11:45] How China Uses CELAC to Advance Its Agenda[14:27] How Latin Americans View China's Growing Presence[17:22] Honduras and the Republic of China[21:22] How Beijing Might Address U.S. Concerns [25:09] China's Reaction to US and Venezuela  

MRKT Matrix - Monday, January 5th Dow jumps nearly 600 points to close at a record as markets rally after U.S.-Venezuela action (CNBC) Venezuela's regime change won't lead to lower gas prices anytime soon, GasBuddy analyst says (CNBC) Michael Burry: Short Thoughts: January 5, 2026 (Substack) Michael Burry's big play off the U.S.-Venezuela situation, which the investor has held for years (CNBC) A Mystery Trader Made $400,000 Betting on Maduro's Downfall (WSJ) GM posts 5.5% U.S. sales gain in 2025, Stellantis' Jeep marks first increase in seven years (CNBC) London emerges as frontline in US-China battle over robotaxis (FT) US Changes Child Vaccine Schedule to Call for Fewer Shots (Bloomberg) Flu Infections Reach Highest Level in US Since Covid Pandemic (Bloomberg) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

Jay Pelosky digs into Venezuelan oil, noting that it is some of the most expensive in the world. He thinks China, its biggest customer, will continue to invest in renewables and sees value in its electrification and AI implementation. He says the U.S. going after Venezuelan oil shows the “gap in strategic thinking” between the two superpowers, with China setting up to win.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Grant Williams returns to The Jay Martin Show for a wide-ranging conversation that moves from silver market volatility to the deeper forces reshaping currencies, trade, and global power. From China's export policies and US–China trade tensions to the slow, structural erosion of dollar dominance, Grant draws on history to explain how reserve currencies actually transition, why these shifts are gradual rather than catastrophic, and what it all means for investors navigating a changing world. Connect with Grant: https://x.com/ttmygh https://www.grant-williams.com/ https://superterrifichappyday.com/ Join us LIVE at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference on January 25 & 26. Tickets: https://VRICMedia.com Learn to invest alongside the top minds in commodities. Join The Commodity University today. CLICK: https://linkly.link/26yH8 Sign up for my free weekly newsletter at https://2ly.link/211gx Be part of our online investment community: https://cambridgehouse.com https://twitter.com/JayMartinBC https://www.instagram.com/jaymartinbc https://www.facebook.com/TheJayMartinShow https://www.linkedin.com/company/cambridge-house-international 00:00 – Welcome & framing the discussion 01:15 – Silver's sudden volatility: leverage, corrections, and context 04:20 – Investor vs trader: knowing your temperament 08:20 – Risk management, discipline, and learning from mistakes 13:30 – What's really driving silver: supply, demand, and speculation 16:45 – China's silver export restrictions: signal or noise? 19:10 – Trading headlines vs trading fundamentals 23:40 – Selling well: why professionals outperform 27:30 – Reserve currencies don't last forever: the sterling-to-dollar lesson 31:15 – Debt, geopolitics, and the hidden mechanics of currency power 35:40 – Petrodollar cracks and China's alternative systems 40:45 – Who funds US debt now? Treasuries, gold, and stablecoins 46:20 – Financial history, political stress, and late-stage empires 53:35 – De-globalization, institutions under strain, and what comes next Copyright © 2025 Cambridge House International Inc. All rights reserved.

This week on Sinica, recorded at Yale University, I speak with Michael Brenes and Van Jackson, coauthors of The Rivalry Peril: How Great-Power Competition Threatens Peace and Weakens Democracy. Their argument is that framing the U.S.-China relationship as geopolitical rivalry has become more than just a foreign policy orientation — it's a domestic political project that reshapes budgets, norms, and coalitions in ways that actively harm American democracy and the American people. Rivalry narrows political possibility, makes dissent suspect, encourages neo-McCarthyism (the China Initiative, profiling of Chinese Americans), produces anti-AAPI hate, and redirects public investment away from social welfare and into defense spending through what they call "national security Keynesianism."Mike is interim director of the Brady Johnson Program in Grand Strategy at Yale, while Van is a senior lecturer in international relations at Victoria University of Wellington and host of the Un-Diplomatic Podcast. We discuss the genesis of their collaboration during the Biden administration, how they navigate China as a puzzle for the American left, canonical misrememberings of the Cold War that distort current China policy, the security dilemma feedback loop between Washington and Beijing, why defense-heavy stimulus is terrible at job creation, how rivalry politics weakens democracy, recent polling showing a shift toward engagement, and their vision for a "geopolitics of peace" anchored in Sino-U.S. détente 2.0.5:47 – The genesis of the book: recognizing Biden's Cold War liberalism 11:26 – How they approached writing together from different disciplinary homes 13:20 – Navigating China as a puzzle for the American left21:39 – How great power competition hardened from analytical framework into ideology 28:15 – Mike on two canonical misrememberings of the Cold War 33:18 – Van on the security dilemma and the nuclear feedback loop 39:55 – National security Keynesianism: why defense spending is bad at job creation 44:38 – How rivalry politics weakens democracy and securitizes dissent 48:09 – Building durable coalitions for restraint-oriented statecraft 51:27 – Has the post-COVID moral panic actually abated? 53:27 – The master narrative we need: a geopolitics of peace 55:29 – Associative balancing: achieving equilibrium through accommodation, not armsRecommendations:Van: The Long Twentieth Century by Giovanni Arrighi Mike: The World of the Cold War: 1945-1991 by Vladislav Zubok Kaiser: Pluribus (Apple TV series by Vince Gilligan)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Michael speaks with Craig Singleton, China Program Senior Director and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, about the new frontiers of the US-China tech competition. Craig explains China's willingness to weaponize its dominance in rare earth magnets and how that leverage has left US assembly lines vulnerable. He also explores the high-stakes debate over semiconductor export controls, including a controversial profit-sharing deal for NVIDIA's H20 chips with the US government. Finally, Craig discusses the Chinese "five lever playbook" used to dominate critical sectors like polysilicon, LIDAR, and display technologies, warning of "strategic kill switches" in US infrastructure and the emerging national security threat of biotech.

Smart Rabbits: American Small Businesspeople, Trade Wars, and the Future of U.S.-China Relations looks at how small businesses navigate the intricate web of U.S.-China relations. Author Douglas Barry captures the voices of entrepreneurs whose daily lives reflect the larger narrative of economic interdependence and geopolitical tension, profiling American small business owners who forge connections, foster trade, and find innovative solutions despite trade wars, policy shifts, and cultural barriers. The book offers insights into how small businesses are affected by and influence global politics, and provides fresh perspectives on the U.S.-China relationship and why bilateral cooperation matters. In an interview conducted on July 21, 2025, Douglas Barry, in conversation with Min Fan, discusses how small businesses are shaping the future of U.S.-China relations. About the speakers  

In this episode of The China Desk, host Steve Yates speaks with US-China Economic and Security Review Commission members Randy Schriver and Mike Kuiken about the Commission's latest annual report to Congress. The conversation breaks down China's rapid advances in space as a warfighting domain, quantum computing and encryption threats, biotechnology competition, and deep vulnerabilities in U.S. supply chains. Drawing on decades of national security experience, the guests explain why technological literacy, allied coordination, and long-term investment are now critical to maintaining U.S. and allied security in the Indo-Pacific. Watch Full-Length Interviews: https://www.youtube.com/@ChinaDeskFNW

In this episode of Gary and Shannon, Gary and Shannon discuss the challenges of the new year, including setting intentions and navigating the complexities of modern life. They dive into the world of steakhouses, where rising costs and profit margins are causing restaurants to get creative with their menus. The conversation also touches on the importance of accountability in politics, with a focus on the US-China tensions and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Additionally, they discuss the impact of affordability on everyday life, including the rising cost of groceries and the struggles of small businesses.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

EI's Paul Lay is joined by Helen Thompson to discuss US–China rivalry, the growing importance of the Western Hemisphere in geopolitics, and the inherent instability of a multipolar world. Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Victory Parade marking the 70th anniversary of the surrender of Nazi Germany in the Second World War. Credit: Associated Press

China analyst and Momentum Works founder Jianggan joins Jeremy Au to break down how US–China tensions evolved through a year of tariffs, rare earth leverage, supply chain shocks, and fast-moving geopolitical swings. They examine why both sides misread each other, how Chinese companies adapted faster than expected, and why the global system settled into a tactical pause instead of a decisive split. Their discussion shows how on-the-ground China differs from Western narratives, how product iteration and factory conditions changed under competitive pressure, and why neither side can force a quick victory. Jianggan also shares insights from thirteen trips across China as he tracks e-commerce exporters, shifting macro sentiment, and the emerging negotiation patterns that shape 2026. 02:28 US tariffs aimed to hurt China but failed to break its exporters: Chinese firms diversified markets, adjusted production, and kept shipping strong volumes even as analysts expected collapse. 03:08 China deployed rare earths and soybeans as leverage: Beijing used export controls, licensing rules, and supply pivots to respond in structured tit for tat moves that surprised US policymakers. 07:04 A tactical pause replaced escalation: Both sides realized they could not win quickly, creating a fragile equilibrium shaped by low trust but stable expectations. 10:06 Factory floors tell a different story: Air-conditioned warehouses, livestreamed food production, one dollar meals, and rising worker savings show a more complex China than what headlines describe. 21:12 Chinese product cycles sped up dramatically: Exporters improved quality within a year, added more features, and stayed cheaper, putting global incumbents under real pressure. 26:26 Narratives on both sides miss the nuance: Sensational media framing and echo chambers make Americans underestimate China and make Chinese underestimate America. 29:06 TikTok deal shows coexistence is possible: Restructuring turned adversaries into stakeholders and created a template for how cross-border platforms can operate under political pressure. Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/jianggan-li-chinas-counterplay Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/engineering-soft-landings WhatsApp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VakR55X6BIElUEvkN02e TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@jeremyau Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/jeremyauz Twitter: https://twitter.com/jeremyau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bravesea Spotify English: https://open.spotify.com/show/4TnqkaWpTT181lMA8xNu0T Bahasa Indonesia: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Vs8t6qPo0eFb4o6zOmiVZ Chinese: https://open.spotify.com/show/20AGbzHhzFDWyRTbHTVDJR Vietnamese: https://open.spotify.com/show/0yqd3Jj0I19NhN0h8lWrK1 YouTube  English: https://www.youtube.com/@JeremyAu?sub_confirmation=1 Apple Podcast  English: https://podcasts.apple.com/sg/podcast/brave-southeast-asia-tech-singapore-indonesia-vietnam/id1506890464 #USChinaRelations #Geopolitics #ChinaEconomy #TradeWar #RareEarths #GlobalSupplyChains #SoutheastAsiaTech #TariffTalks #MarketDynamics #BRAVEpodcast

Gideon and guests look back at 2025 as well as forward to the year ahead in an FT Live discussion for the Global Boardroom. Donald Trump set the tone of world politics this year from his tariff wars to his efforts to make peace in the Middle East and Ukraine, while also bombing Iran and threatening Venezuela. In a bid to make sense of the contradictions, Gideon is joined by Leslie Vinjamuri, president of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Dan Drexner, professor of international politics at the Fletcher school at Tufts university in Boston, and James Crabtree, author of an acclaimed book on Modi's India and a forthcoming book on US-China tensions in the Pacific. Clip: PBSFree links to read more on this topic:When business and democracy don't mixThe AfD's love-in with MagaOpen source could pop the AI bubble — and soonChina is making trade impossibleSubscribe to The Rachman Review wherever you get your podcasts - please listen, rate and subscribe.Presented by Gideon Rachman. Produced by Fiona Symon. Sound design is by Breen Turner and the executive producer is Flo Phillips.Follow Gideon on Bluesky or X @gideonrachman.bsky.social, @gideonrachmanRead a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The US accused China of engaging in unfair trade practices in the semiconductor sector, but is declining to impose additional tariffs on chip imports until at least mid-2027. The Office of the US Trade Representative on Tuesday released the findings of a nearly yearlong inquiry into China's chip sector that was launched in the final weeks of the former President Joe Biden's administration, with the expectation the matter would be resolved under President Donald Trump. In the intervening months, Trump struck a truce with Chinese President Xi Jinping to end a trade war that rattled global markets. For more on the relationship in regards to US-China in the technology space, we spoke to Tiffany Hsiao, Portfolio Manager at Matthews International Capital Management. Plus - the US economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest pace in two years, bolstered by resilient consumer and business spending and calmer trade policies. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product, which measures the value of goods and services produced in the US, increased at a 4.3% annualized pace, a Bureau of Economic Analysis report showed Tuesday. That was higher than all but one forecast in a Bloomberg survey and followed 3.8% growth in the prior period. We heard from Chris Kampitsis, Managing Partner, Barnum Financial Group.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Almost every serious discussion about options to constrain the development of advanced AI results in someone raising the question: “But what about China?” The worry behind this question is that slowing down AI research and development in the US and Europe will allow China to race ahead.It's true: the relationship between China and the rest of the world has many complications. That's why we're delighted that our guest in this episode is Kayla Blomquist, the Co-founder and Director of the Oxford China Policy Lab, or OCPL for short. OCPL describes itself as a global community of China and emerging technology researchers at Oxford, who produce policy-relevant research to navigate risks in the US-China relationship and beyond.In parallel with her role at OCPL, Kayla is pursuing a DPhil at the Oxford Internet Institute. She is a recent fellow at the Centre for Governance of AI, and the lead researcher and contributing author to the Oxford China Briefing Book. She holds an MSc from the Oxford Internet Institute and a BA with Honours in International Relations, Public Policy, and Mandarin Chinese from the University of Denver. She also studied at Peking University and is professionally fluent in Mandarin.Kayla previously worked as a diplomat in the U.S. Mission to China, where she specialized in the governance of emerging technologies, human rights, and improving the use of new technology within government services.Selected follow-ups:Kayla Blomquist - Personal siteOxford China Policy LabThe Oxford Internet Institute (OII)Google AI defeats human Go champion (Ke Jie)AI Safety Summit 2023 (Bletchley Park, UK)United Kingdom: Balancing Safety, Security, and Growth - OCPLChina wants to lead the world on AI regulation - report from APEC 2025China's WAICO proposal and the reordering of global AI governanceImpact of AI on cyber threat from now to 2027Options for the future of the global governance of AI - London Futurists WebinarA Tentative Draft of a Treaty - Online appendix to the book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone DiesAn International Agreement to Prevent the Premature Creation of Artificial SuperintelligenceMusic: Spike Protein, by Koi Discovery, available under CC0 1.0 Public Domain DeclarationC-Suite PerspectivesElevate how you lead with insight from today's most influential executives.Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. • Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 • Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal • TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions • China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses • Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform • Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure • Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease • Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries • Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws • Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws • ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy • Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks • The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking • AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players • Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war • Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI • Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism • AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection • Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content • Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash • RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand • YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online • The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends • Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring • Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech • Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

The increasingly acrimonious U.S.-China relationship is the defining trend of this era, upending global politics, economics, and security, especially across the Global South. Countries that have worked hard from having to pick sides in this new competition, may longer have that luxury as this rivalry intensifies. Jane Perlez, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and a former longtime China correspondent for The New York Times, has been covering this story since the 1980s. Now, together with acclaimed Harvard University China scholar Rana Mitter, she's launched season 3 of her award-winning podcast Face Off: The U.S. vs. China, where they explore the key trends reshaping ties between these two powers. Jane joins Eric from Sydney to discuss the forces driving this rivalry: leadership personality, domestic pressure, technological competition, and the tightening link between geopolitics and economic strategy.

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

After a year tangled in political drama, AI hype, and regulation battles, the TWiT crew explains how many of tech's "biggest stories" simply fizzled into nothing or left us with new headaches by year's end. Year-end tech trends: AI, politics, and security dominated 2025 Major stories faded fast: TikTok saga, political tech drama, DOGE scandal TikTok's ownership battle—Oracle, Trump donors, and US-China tensions China tech fears: banned drones, IoT vulnerabilities, secret radios in buses Rising political pressure for internet privacy and media literacy reform Surveillance and kill switch concerns in US grid and port infrastructure Convenience vs. privacy: Americans trade data for discounts and ease Age verification, surveillance, and flawed facial recognition across countries Discord's ID leak highlights risks of rushed compliance with privacy laws Social media's impact on kids pushes age-gating and verification laws ISPs monetize customer data, VPNs pitched for personal privacy Global government crackdowns: UK bans VPN advertising, mandates age checks The illusion of absolute privacy: flawed age gates and persistent tracking AI takes over: explosive growth, but profits elusive for big players Arms race in LLMs: DeepSeek's breakthrough, OpenAI/Meta talent bidding war Ad-driven models still rule; Amazon's playbook repeated in AI Humanoid robots and AGI hype: skepticism vs. Silicon Valley optimism AI-generated art, media, and the challenge of deepfake detection Social platforms falter: Instagram and X swamped by fake or low-value content Google's legal, regulatory, and technical woes: ad tech trial, Manifest V3 backlash RAM price spikes and hardware shortages blamed on AI data center demand YouTube overtakes mobile for podcast and video viewing, Oscars move online The internet's growth: Cloudflare stats, X vs. Reddit, spam domain trends Weird tech stories: hacked crosswalks, Nintendo Switch 2 Staplegate, LEGO theft ring Sad farewell: Lamar Wilson's passing and mental health awareness in tech Reflections on the year's turbulence and hopes for a better 2026 Host: Leo Laporte Guests: Mikah Sargent, Paris Martineau, and Steve Gibson Download or subscribe to This Week in Tech at https://twit.tv/shows/this-week-in-tech Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free audio and video feeds, a members-only Discord, and exclusive content. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: expressvpn.com/twit zscaler.com/security Melissa.com/twit ventionteams.com/twit auraframes.com/ink

Just a few trading days left in 2025, and there's an AI battle royale brewing between hardware and hyperscalers. The moves in Micron, Nvidia, and Oracle as Mag-7 hyperscalers largely sit out of today's rally. Plus A TikTok spinoff deal, and an $11B weapons package to Taiwan. All the headlines swirling around U.S.-China relations, and how it can all impact global markets.Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The decision to permit exports of Nvidia’s H200 semiconductors to China is a “standalone” matter within the broader US-China trading relationship, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says on Bloomberg. He discusses this, tariffs and the latest in the TikTok deal with hosts Lisa Abramowicz and Dani Burger.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, recorded in November 2025, Victor Shih sits down with Sarah Beran to discuss key developments in U.S.-China relations and how the relationship has evolved and may continue to evolve in the second Trump administration.

In 1983, Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet lieutenant colonel, sat in a bunker watching a red screen flash “MISSILE LAUNCH.” Protocol demanded he report it to superiors, which would very likely trigger a retaliatory nuclear strike. Petrov didn't. He reasoned that if the US were actually attacking, they wouldn't fire just 5 missiles — they'd empty the silos. He bet the fate of the world on a hunch that his machine was broken. He was right.Paul Scharre, the former Army Ranger who led the Pentagon team that wrote the US military's first policy on autonomous weapons, has a question: What would an AI have done in Petrov's shoes? Would an AI system have been flexible and wise enough to make the same judgement? Or would it immediately launch a counterattack?Paul joins host Luisa Rodriguez to explain why we are hurtling toward a “battlefield singularity” — a tipping point where AI increasingly replaces humans in much of the military, changing the way war is fought with speed and complexity that outpaces humans' ability to keep up.Links to learn more, video, and full transcript: https://80k.info/psMilitaries don't necessarily want to take humans out of the loop. But Paul argues that the competitive pressure of warfare creates a “use it or lose it” dynamic. As former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work put it: “If our competitors go to Terminators, and their decisions are bad, but they're faster, how would we respond?”Once that line is crossed, Paul warns we might enter an era of “flash wars” — conflicts that spiral out of control as quickly and inexplicably as a flash crash in the stock market, with no way for humans to call a timeout.In this episode, Paul and Luisa dissect what this future looks like:Swarming warfare: Why the future isn't just better drones, but thousands of cheap, autonomous agents coordinating like a hive mind to overwhelm defences.The Gatling gun cautionary tale: The inventor of the Gatling gun thought automating fire would reduce the number of soldiers needed, saving lives. Instead, it made war significantly deadlier. Paul argues AI automation could do the same, increasing lethality rather than creating “bloodless” robot wars.The cyber frontier: While robots have physical limits, Paul argues cyberwarfare is already at the point where AI can act faster than human defenders, leading to intelligent malware that evolves and adapts like a biological virus.The US-China “adoption race”: Paul rejects the idea that the US and China are in a spending arms race (AI is barely 1% of the DoD budget). Instead, it's a race of organisational adoption — one where the US has massive advantages in talent and chips, but struggles with bureaucratic inertia that might not be a problem for an autocratic country.Paul also shares a personal story from his time as a sniper in Afghanistan — watching a potential target through his scope — that fundamentally shaped his view on why human judgement, with all its flaws, is the only thing keeping war from losing its humanity entirely.This episode was recorded on October 23-24, 2025.Chapters:Cold open (00:00:00)Who's Paul Scharre? (00:00:46)How will AI and automation transform the nature of war? (00:01:17)Why would militaries take humans out of the loop? (00:12:22)AI in nuclear command, control, and communications (00:18:50)Nuclear stability and deterrence (00:36:10)What to expect over the next few decades (00:46:21)Financial and human costs of future “hyperwar” scenarios (00:50:42)AI warfare and the balance of power (01:06:37)Barriers to getting to automated war (01:11:08)Failure modes of autonomous weapons systems (01:16:28)Could autonomous weapons systems actually make us safer? (01:29:36)Is Paul overall optimistic or pessimistic about increasing automation in the military? (01:35:23)Paul's takes on AGI's transformative potential and whether natsec people buy it (01:37:42)Cyberwarfare (01:46:55)US-China balance of power and surveillance with AI (02:02:49)Policy and governance that could make us safer (02:29:11)How Paul's experience in the Army informed his feelings on military automation (02:41:09)Video and audio editing: Dominic Armstrong, Milo McGuire, Luke Monsour, and Simon MonsourMusic: CORBITCoordination, transcripts, and web: Katy Moore

On today's show Andrew and Bill begin with takeaways from the Central Economic Work Conference, including the latest push to stimulate domestic demand, why consumption is intertwined with security, speculation surrounding Politburo member Ma Xingrui, and a reminder that many of the economic challenges facing China remain intertwined with politics. From there: More thoughts on the sale of H-200s to China, and a look back on the stories that dominated the podcast this year, including a TikTok saga that still hasn't been resolved, the world tour of US-China negotiations, the PRC weathering the storm from the U.S., China's ongoing economic struggles, omnipresent EU questions, the Xi rumor mill, and Xi succession plans.

This week we talk about NVIDIA, AI companies, and the US economy.We also discuss the US-China chip-gap, mixed-use technologies, and export bans.Recommended Book: Enshittification by Cory DoctorowTranscriptI've spoken about this a few times in recent months, but it's worth rehashing real quick because this collection of stories and entities are so central to what's happening across a lot of the global economy, and is also fundamental, in a very load-bearing way, to the US economy right now.As of November of 2025, around the same time that Nvidia, the maker of the world's best AI-optimized chips at the moment became the world's first company to achieve a $5 trillion market cap, the top seven highest-valued tech companies, including Nvidia, accounted for about 32% of the total value of the US stock market.That's an absolutely astonishing figure, as while Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Broadcom, and Meta all have a fairly diverse footprint even beyond their AI efforts, a lot of that value for all of them is predicated on expected future income; which is to say, their market caps, their value according to that measure, is determined not by their current assets and revenue, but by what investors think or hope they'll pull in and be worth in the future.That's important to note because historically the sorts of companies that have market caps that are many multiples of their current, more concrete values are startups; companies in their hatchling phase that have a good idea and some kind of big potential, a big moat around what they're offering or a blue ocean sub-industry with little competition in which they can flourish, and investment is thus expected to help them grow fast.These top seven tech companies, in contrast, are all very mature, have been around for a while and have a lot of infrastructure, employees, expenses, and all the other things we typically associated with mature businesses, not flashy startups with their best days hopefully ahead of them.Some analysts have posited that part of why these companies are pushing the AI thing so hard, and in particular pushing the idea that they're headed toward some kind of generally useful AI, or AGI, or superhuman AI that can do everyone's jobs better and cheaper than humans can do them, is that in doing so, they're imagining a world in which they, and they alone, because of the costs associated with building the data centers required to train and run the best-quality AI right now, are capable of producing basically an economy's-worth of AI systems and bots and machines operated by those AI systems.In other words, they're creating, from whole cloth, an imagined scenario in which they're not just worthy of startup-like valuations, worthy of market caps that are tens or hundreds of times their actual concrete value, because of those possible futures they're imagining in public, but they're the only companies worthy of those valuation multiples; the only companies that matter anymore.It's likely that even if this is the case, that the folks in charge of these companies, and the investors who have money in them who are likely to profit when the companies grow and grow, actually do believe what they're telling everyone about the possibilities inherent in building these sorts of systems.But there also seems to be a purely economic motive for exaggerating a lot and clearing out as much of the competition as possible as they grow bigger and bigger. Because maybe they'll actually make what they're saying they can make as a result of all that investment, that exuberance, but maybe, failing that, they'll just be the last companies standing after the bubble bursts and an economic wildfire clears out all the smaller companies that couldn't get the political relationships and sustaining cash they needed to survive the clear-out, if and when reality strikes and everyone realizes that sci-fi outcome isn't gonna happen, or isn't gonna happen any time soon.What I'd like to talk about today is a recent decision by the US government to allow Nvidia to sell some of its high-powered chips to China, and why that decision is being near-universally derided by those in the know.—In early December 2025, after a lot of back-and-forthing on the matter, President Trump announced that the US government will allow Nvidia, which is a US-based company, to export its H200 processors to China. He also said that the US government will collect a 25% fee on these sales.The H200 is Nvidia's second-best chip for AI purposes, and it's about six-times as powerful as the H20, which is currently the most advanced Nvidia chip that's been cleared for sale to China. The Blackwell chip that is currently Nvidia's most powerful AI offering is about 1.5-times faster than the H200 for training purposes, and five-times faster for AI inferencing, which is what they're used for after a model is trained, and then it's used for predictions, decisions, and so on.The logic of keeping the highest-end chips from would-be competitors, especially military competitors like China, isn't new—this is something the US and other governments have pretty much always done, and historically even higher-end gaming systems like Playstation consoles have been banned for export in some cases because the chips they contained could be repurposed for military things, like plucking them out and using them to guide missiles—Sony was initially unable to sell the Playstation 2 outside of Japan because it needed special permits to sell something so militarily capable outside the country, and it remained unsellable in countries like Iraq, Iran, and North Korea throughout its production period.The concern with these Nvidia chips is that if China has access to the most powerful AI processors, it might be able to close the estimated 2-year gap between US companies and Chinese companies when it comes to the sophistication of their AI models and the power of their relevant chips. Beyond being potentially useful for productivity and other economic purposes, this hardware and software is broadly expected to shape the next generation of military hardware, and is already in use for all sorts of wartime and defense purposes, including sophisticated drones used by both sides in Ukraine. If the US loses this advantage, the thinking goes, China might step up its aggression in the South China Sea, potentially even moving up plans to invade Taiwan.Thus, one approach, which has been in place since the Biden administration, has been to do everything possible to keep the best chips out of Chinese hands, because that would ostensibly slow them down, make them less capable of just splurging on the best hardware, which they could then use to further develop their local AI capabilities.This approach, however, also incentivized the Chinese government to double-down on their own homegrown chip industry. Which again is still generally thought to be about 2-years behind the US industry, but it does seem to be closing the gap rapidly, mostly by copying designs and approaches used by companies around the world.An alternative theory, the one that seems to be at least partly responsible for Trump's about-face on this, is that if the US allows the sale of sufficiently powerful chips to China, the Chinese tech industry will become reliant on goods provided by US companies, and thus its own homegrown AI sector will shrivel and never fully close that gap. If necessary the US can then truncate or shut down those shipments, crippling the Chinese tech industry at a vital moment, and that would give the US the upper-hand in many future negotiations and scenarios.Most analysts in this space no longer think this is a smart approach, because the Chinese government is wise to this tactic, using it itself all the time. And even in spaces where they have plenty of incoming resources from elsewhere, they still try to shore-up their own homegrown versions of the same, copying those international inputs rather than relying on them, so that someday they won't need them anymore.The same is generally thought to be true, here. Ever since the first Trump administration, when the US government started its trade war with China, the Chinese government has not been keen on ever relying on external governments and economies again, and it looks a lot more likely, based on what the Chinese government has said, and based on investments across the Chinese market on Chinese AI and chip companies following this announcement, that they'll basically just scoop up as many Nvidia chips as they can, while they can, and primarily for the purpose of reverse-engineering those chips, speeding up their gap-closing with US companies, and then, as soon as possible, severing that tie, competing with Nvidia rather than relying on it.This is an especially pressing matter right now, then, because the US economy, and basically all of its growth, is so completely reliant on AI tech and the chips that are allowing that tech to move forward.If this plan by the US government doesn't pan out and ends up being a short-term gain situation, a little bit of money earned from that 25% cut the government takes, and Ndvidia temporarily enriching itself further through Chinese sales, but in exchange both entities give up their advantage, long term, to Chinese AI companies and the Chinese government, that could be bad not just for AI companies around the world, which could be rapidly outcompeted by Chinese alternatives, but also all economies exposed to the US economy, which could be in for a long term correction, slump, or full-on depression.Show Noteshttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/us/politics/trump-nvidia-ai-chips-china.htmlhttps://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2025/12/us-taking-25-cut-of-nvidia-chip-sales-makes-no-sense-experts-say/https://www.pcmag.com/news/20-years-later-how-concerns-about-weaponized-consoles-almost-sunk-the-ps2https://archive.is/20251211090854/https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-open-up-exports-nvidia-h200-chips-china-semafor-reports-2025-12-08/https://theconversation.com/with-nvidias-second-best-ai-chips-headed-for-china-the-us-shifts-priorities-from-security-to-trade-271831https://www.economist.com/business/2025/12/09/donald-trumps-flawed-plan-to-get-china-hooked-on-nvidia-chipshttps://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3335900/chinas-moore-threads-unveil-ai-chip-road-map-rival-nvidias-cuda-systemhttps://www.investopedia.com/nvidia-just-became-the-first-usd5-trillion-company-monitor-these-crucial-stock-price-levels-11839114https://aventis-advisors.com/ai-valuation-multiples/ This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

 Rare earth minerals may be a misnomer.  While they are critical minerals to our modern, digital life, they are not that rare.  The problem is finding them in concentrated places where it is economically and environmentally responsible to mine them.  This group of 17 metallic elements is crucial for modern technologies due to their magnetic and electrical properties.  They can be found in products as diverse as F-35 fighter jets, iPhones, wind turbines, televisions and night-vision goggles. While there are various ways of extracting them, mining is the primary method, though repurposing them from older digital devices is another approach.  With all that said, their value to modern economies cannot be overstated.  And given China’s stranglehold on the global market and the fact that America only has one functioning mine to date, has been a point of great friction in relations between the two nations.  We explore all of these topics on today’s podcast with Ernest Scheyder, the author of “The War Below:  Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives.”

In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, host Dan Nathan and guest Peter Boockvar, CIO at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, speak with Louis Vincent-Gave, CEO and founder of Gavekal, to discuss the evolving economic competition between the US and China. They explore the impact of past trade embargos, particularly the 2018 semiconductor embargo, and China's response which led to significant industrial advancements. The conversation touches on the implications for global markets, US companies, and the strategic shifts in industrial policy. They also delve into the potential outcomes of continued US-China rivalry, including the growing importance of AI technology, state capitalism, and the future role of the US and China in global trade. The episode highlights the complexities and potential shifts in economic power dynamics and the strategic responses required on both sides. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Japan prime minister Sanae Takaichi’s assertion that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a threat to her nation’s survival has spurred a crisis between Tokyo and Beijing. Can de-escalation be achieved? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement (STA), the first bilateral agreement signed shortly after the United States and China established diplomatic relations in 1979, has been renewed multiple times. Scientists from the two countries have collaborated on cancer prevention, malaria treatment, vaccines, and more; the results of their efforts have benefited the people of both countries and the world. In August 2024, the STA expired, but on December 13, 2024, the two countries signed a protocol amending the STA and extending it for another five years, suggesting that rumors of the death of collaboration were premature. However, the actual agreement wasn't published for four months, in April 2025.  In an interview conducted on August 5, 2025, Scott Kennedy, Deborah Seligsohn, and Denis Simon speak with Abigail Coplin about the renewal of the STA, the future of U.S.-China scientific cooperation, and implications for overall U.S.-China relations.  About this program

In this episode of China Field Notes, Scott Kennedy speaks with historian Michael Szonyi about why fieldwork matters to social historians and trends in U.S.-China relations. Szonyi unpacks the concept of “history from below” and how doing fieldwork in localities helps social historians understand history from the perspective of everyday people, their practices, and community dynamics that are less visible when looking through the lens of the country's leaders or international politics. Drawing on years of research in places such as Quemoy and Yongtai (Fujian), he describes how local records, such as land deeds and genealogies, complicate familiar national narratives and reveal how ordinary communities experienced major political and geopolitical shifts. Kennedy and Szonyi conclude by discussing the role of historians as public intellectuals, the risks of scholarly decoupling, and why first-hand knowledge of China remains essential for navigating the future of U.S.-China relations. Michael Szonyi is Frank Wen-hsiung Wu Professor of Chinese History and former Director of the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard University. A social historian of late imperial and modern China, his books include The Art of Being Governed: Everyday Politics in Late Imperial China (2017) and Cold War Island: Quemoy on the Front Line (2008). His most recent works are The China Questions 2: Critical Insights into US-China Relations (co-edited with Adele Carrai and Jennifer Rudolph, 2022) and Making Meritocracy: Lessons from China and India, from Antiquity to the Present (co-edited with Tarun Khanna, 2022). He received his B.A. from the University of Toronto and his D.Phil. from Oxford, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. He has also studied at National Taiwan University and Xiamen University. He is currently writing a modern history of rural China and a study of a remarkable trove of local documents found in Yongtai County, China. In 2024, he was made an “Honorary Villager of Yongtai.”

Is the US or China winning the tech race, and what factors will determine the outcome? Mark Kennedy, founding director of the Wahba Initiative for Strategic Competition, and Paul Triolo, partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group, discuss with Allison Nathan on the latest episode of Goldman Sachs Exchanges. This episode was recorded on November 10, 18, and December 9th, 2025. The opinions and views expressed herein are as of the date of publication, subject to change without notice, and may not necessarily reflect the institutional views of Goldman Sachs or its affiliates. The material provided is intended for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation from any Goldman Sachs entity to take any particular action, or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any securities or financial products. This material may contain forward-looking statements. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Neither Goldman Sachs nor any of its affiliates make any representations or warranties, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or information contained herein and disclaim any liability whatsoever for reliance on such information for any purpose. Each name of a third-party organization mentioned is the property of the company to which it relates, is used here strictly for informational and identification purposes only and is not used to imply any ownership or license rights between any such company and Goldman Sachs. A transcript is provided for convenience and may differ from the original video or audio content. Goldman Sachs is not responsible for any errors in the transcript. This material should not be copied, distributed, published, or reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed by any recipient to any other person without the express written consent of Goldman Sachs. Disclosures applicable to research with respect to issuers, if any, mentioned herein are available through your Goldman Sachs representative or at http://www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. © 2025 Goldman Sachs. All rights reserved. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Panama finally has an adult in the room. Under President José Raúl Mulino, the country is shifting away from drama-driven politics and toward competence, discipline, and steady governance. While much of the world sinks deeper into dysfunction, Panama is choosing a path grounded in seriousness and long-term stability. In today's episode, I break down what Mulino's leadership means for the country's future and why it matters for anyone building a serious Plan-B. If you want a clear understanding of where Panama is heading and why this moment matters, this is the analysis you don't want to miss. Enjoy! IN TODAY'S EPISODE Listen in to hear how José Raúl Mulino rose from placeholder candidate to the steady, competent leader reshaping Panama's political landscapeFind out how Mulino is defending Panama's sovereignty amid US-China pressure over the Canal and recalibrating the country's geopolitical positionLearn why Panama's entry into Mercosur represents one of the most consequential economic moves in its modern historyHear my full breakdown and latest updates on Panama's Investor Visa and why Panama residency is becoming more valuable than ever STAY IN TOUCH! Stay informed about the latest news affecting the expat world and receive a steady stream of my thoughts and opinions on geopolitics by subscribing to our newsletter. You will receive the EMS Pulse® newsletter and the weekly Expat Sunday Times; sign up now and receive my FREE special report, “Plan B Residencies and Instant Citizenships.” WEALTH, FREEDOM & PASSPORTS CONFERENCE, MARCH 6-7, 2026 Join us in Panama City from March 6-7, 2026, for our second annual in-person event, the Wealth, Freedom and Passports Conference! Get your tickets now, as space is very limited.  RELATED EPISODES 363: Expat News: Panama's Bitcoin Push, Portugal's Passport Delays And The EU's Insane Tax Proposal 340: Expat News: Trump Sends Rubio To Panama & Javier Milei's Meme Coin Scandal 336: Update: Panama Citizenship & Brazil TripMentioned in this episode:No Plan-B Without the LanguageIf you're planning to move overseas—or even just set up your offshore Plan-B—learning the local language isn't optional. It's protection. It's access. It's power. StoryLearning makes it easy to start today, from home, by immersing you in real...

China's October decision to add five rare earth elements to its export control list confirmed what policymakers have long feared. China controls 60% of global critical mineral production and over 80% of refining capacity for materials that power everything from electric vehicles to fighter jets. AI data center buildouts have only spiked demand further. Add cobalt to the picture—70% of global reserves sit in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and China owns roughly 70% of that production—and you have a supply chain built for peacetime that could collapse in a crisis. The alloys in today's F-35 engines depend on elements Beijing could cut off tomorrow.Joseph Krause argues the problem runs deeper than mining. Materials companies today are 75 to 150 years old. Some aerospace alloys still in use were developed for the Ford Model T. Meanwhile, China has been publishing the lion's share of advanced alloy research and aggressively recruiting metallurgy professors from American universities. China already fields a hypersonic capability using a niobium-based alloy; the US is scrambling to catch up. Krause's company, Radical AI, is building AI-powered labs to compress what typically takes 10 to 20 years and over $100 million in materials discovery into something dramatically faster and cheaper. The goal is inverse design: start with the exact properties the military needs, then work backward to find materials that don't require Chinese-controlled supply chains.The Trump administration has moved aggressively, taking a $400 million stake in MP Materials, putting $2 billion toward stockpiling strategic metals, and working to streamline permitting that currently takes seven to ten years for a single US mine. FAI's Farrell Gregory notes there's no silver bullet across the 60 minerals on the USGS critical minerals list, which ranges from rare earths at $8 billion in global market value to copper at $250 billion. The administration has shifted from blanket tax credits to case-by-case deals, prioritizing materials where Chinese leverage is highest and American action can make the biggest difference. Krause and Gregory join Evan to discuss the challenges facing the U.S. amid Chinese dominance in rare earth minerals and what policymakers can do to make the U.S. more resilient to supply chain shocks, including public-private partnerships and government funding.

Nicholas Burns spent 2021 to 2025 in Beijing as US Ambassador to China, witnessing up close the forces shaping the world's most dangerous rivalry.Sitting across from Xi Jinping and living in China, he saw firsthand how dangerously close the world is to a crisis. Some of it genuinely terrified him.Our conventional wisdom about China? Outdated. And dangerously wrong.In this episode, he reveals the alarming "nightmare scenario" almost no one is talking about, why a single unanswered phone call could spark disaster, and what we're getting wrong about China and what China is getting wrong about us.All from someone who lived it.

Pierre Poilievre says Conservative motion will force Liberals to 'put up or shut up' on oil pipeline support. Liberals say they will vote against it. Fighting on Thai-Cambodia border forces thousands to flee, shows no sign of stopping. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he is ready to present Ukraine's response to the US-proposed peace plan. Controversial bill that would require some ultra-Orthodox Jews to serve in Israel's military divides country. US President Donald Trump is greenlighting exports from AI giant Nvidia to China, a reversal in the US-China trade war.

Congress is back to work this week…And on the Senate's agenda—a vote on extending health care tax credits past the end of the month…Democrats want a simple three-year extension of the tax credits…Republicans oppose that but have yet to put out a plan of their own… The tax credits help millions of Americans pay for insurance on state-run exchanges…We'll hear what Sens. Thune and Schumer had to say about it on the floor earlier this afternoon… Also today, the White House announced a 12 billion dollars aid package to American farmers...who have been hurt by the US-China trade war…It includes 11 billion dollars in one-time payments to farmers who grow corn, cotton, soybeans and other crops…The President talked about it at a roundtable event…We'll hear from him coming up… And at the Supreme Court—oral arguments in the case of Trump v Slaughter…a case that centers on whether presidents can fire officials of independent agencies without cause…It all started back in March when President Trump fired Federal Trade Commission member Rebecca Slaughter…Saying that her service was “inconsistent” with his goals…. Rebecca Slaughter then sued, arguing that she can be removed only for specific reasons…Today the court heard this case…We'll play you part of what happened inside the court room… Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does China's economy affect US policy? US policymakers have responded to perceived dangers from China by using industrial policy, export controls, and attempting to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities. Some analysts have concluded that China is developing a sizable technological capacity that poses a challenge to the US economy, and potentially constrains US foreign policy. How much leverage has the Chinese economy purchased for policymakers in Beijing? What does the ceasefire in the US-China trade war tell us about the future of US-China competition? Finally, what do these questions about China's economy tell us about the security threat China potentially poses?Getting the answers to these questions right is essential for crafting an effective US grand strategy. This policy forum brings together two leading experts on Chinese political economy to discuss what China's economy really looks like and what the implications are for US grand strategy. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of the China Power Project, Chad Sbragia joins us to discuss the current state of U.S.-China mil-mil relations and the overall defense relationship between the two countries. He provides his insight into the continuities and changes in defense ties between the countries from the first Trump administration until now and the current opportunities that exist for greater engagement and increased understanding between the two sides. Sbragia also discusses his key takeaways from this year's Xiangshan forum, Beijing's premier defense and security forum, and what he is looking out for in the upcoming release of the U.S. National Defense Strategy and China Military Power Report. Chad Sbragia is currently a Research Staff Member at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Previously he served as the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs within the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

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