Econoday Unplugged

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Econoday’s economists look at the week’s important economic events.

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    • Jul 20, 2021 LATEST EPISODE
    • every other week NEW EPISODES
    • 16m AVG DURATION
    • 337 EPISODES


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    Latest episodes from Econoday Unplugged

    UP 250: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2021 7:55


    The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday's ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.

    UP 249: Are the PMIs offering accurate indications of the reopening economy?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jul 6, 2021 29:47


    PMIs in Europe as well as similar business surveys in the US have been posting record scores in contrast to subsequent definitive data which have often been no better than mixed. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the importance of PMIs to policy makers and forecasters, looking at their sampling structure and methodology for explanations to the ongoing disconnect.

    UP 248: Central banks stick to their guns

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2021 37:41


    Major dislocations between demand and supply continue to put upside pressure on final product prices but most central banks remain convinced that rising inflation will be short-lived. The team discusses the likelihood of future policy tightenings being delivered sooner rather than later.

    UP 247: Demand soaring but inflation mixed; Covid reopenings uneven

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 1, 2021 29:18


    Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.

    UP 246:Inflation yet to shift monetary policy

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2021 26:34


    The basic message from global central banks is holding, that inflation pressures now building will soon fade and that rate hikes are still well down the road.

    UP 245: How and when to signal the policy shift

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 27, 2021 27:05


    Federal Reserve communications are approaching the inflection point on when to signal the withdrawal of stimulus. For Europe, this pivot is still more distant given lagging vaccination rates and lagging economic performance.

    UP 243: Status quo for Fed and SNB; 'vaccine war' for UK-EU

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 23, 2021 30:26


    Wild bumps for US data are due to comparison distortions, an effect that is expected to be temporary and which would not derail Federal Reserve plans for extended stimulus. Steady policy for the Swiss National Bank, given a falling franc, is also the expectation. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the UK's performance amid developing tensions with the EU over vaccine production and availability.

    UP 242: The Fed and BoE likely to hold policy steady; vaccine issues cloud Eurozone prospects

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 16, 2021 29:04


    Despite the recent rise in long rates, neither the Federal Reserve nor the Bank of England are likely to make any QE adjustments. Covid cases have been coming down and vaccination rates going up in both the US and UK, in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

    UP 240: Inflation climbing, yields jumping, policy in question

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 4, 2021 35:30


    With vaccines rolling out and Covid cases coming down, our team updates the outlook for inflation and long-term interest rates and what it may or may not mean for any changes in central bank policy.

    UP 239: Inflation up, rates up; how to communicate policy change

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 23, 2021 24:33


    Inflation may still be well below target but it is on the rise as are long-term interest rates. How these factors are affecting the financial markets and monetary policy and what they mean for central-bank communication strategy are points of this week's discussion.

    UP 238: QE as means to control exchange rates

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2021 39:16


    This week's topic is whether central banks may begin to increase or decrease QE as a means of controlling exchange rates and the related risks that such action might bring to financial market stability.

    UP 237: The end of low inflation?

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 9, 2021 30:43


    Inflation expectations in the financial markets are rising quickly in contrast to actual inflation measures which are still subdued.

    UP 236: Regional round-up and Covid-19 vaccination rates - the new forward-looking economic recovery metric

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 3, 2021 31:03


    Brian Jackson and Jeremy Hawkins pull together the latest economic trends and discuss the importance to financial markets of the relative pace of the vaccine rollout.

    UP 235: Updates on the latest data and policy outlooks

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 26, 2021 27:56


    Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender assess the latest economic data from Europe and the US, including a sharp drop in UK retail indications and sharp gains for US home prices. GDP outlooks are also discussed as well as issues at play for coming central bank meetings.

    UP 234: Asian data improving as Europe struggles; US labor market weak

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 19, 2021 29:22


    Our duo of Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender round-up recent data and discuss the outlook for pending data and upcoming central bank announcements. Themes include weakness in the US labor market, ECB lending worries as well as the separation between assessments of current conditions and expectations for future recovery.

    UP 233: US job weakness severe and skewed; Covid updates from Europe

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 12, 2021 22:02


    Our team discusses the latest employment news from both the US and Canada, as well Covid counts and restrictions in Europe and what it may mean for first-quarter activity.

    UP 232: Key factors likely to influence financial markets in 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Jan 7, 2021 50:03


    The team discusses the big issues facing global policy makers at a time of huge uncertainty surrounding the economic and political outlooks.

    UP 231: 2020 in review: Takeaways from a tumultuous year

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2020 8:34


    With much of the global hospitality sector hit by Covid-19 restrictions, takeaways have been a lifesaver for many cafes, pubs and restaurants in 2020. But throughout the year, there’s also been a number of interesting takeaways to be had from how policymakers and financial markets have responded to the coronavirus pandemic. Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at some of the most significant.

    UP 230: Central bank round-up: some moves possible but no action likely

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2020 27:26


    Balancing between near-term weakness and medium-term prospects of vaccination relief, the Federal Reserve is not expected to make any policy moves at this week's meeting. And as long as Brexit remains up in the air, neither is the Bank of England though should a no-deal emerge, the bank could take pre-emptive action. Also meeting this week will be the Swiss National Bank whose easing bias, given stability in the Swiss franc, isn't likely to be tested, as well as the Bank of Japan where QE extension is a possibility.

    UP 229: Final Brexit talks, ECB decision to be early keys for 2021

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2020 30:07


    The post-Brexit world is imminent but has yet to take shape. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss what various outcomes might mean for currencies and also discuss possible outcomes for next week's slate of central bank meetings and their possible effects on the markets.

    UP 228: Covid-19 vaccines to the rescue as global growth stutters

    Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2020 29:29


    The impending arrival of a Covid-19 vaccine continues to underpin global stock markets despite mounting evidence of weak fourth quarter GDP in Europe and some signs of slowing activity in the U.S. Geopolitical issues are also discussed as a possible threat to the economic recovery in parts of the Asia/Pacific region.

    UP 227: Fiscal frustration and the threat to recovery

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 24, 2020 11:04


    Jeremy Hawkins takes a look at the state of the recovery in the major economies and warns that future prospects could be seriously damaged by emerging disputes between and amongst fiscal and monetary policymakers.

    UP 226: US outperforming; European fiscal policy in doubt

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 17, 2020 27:58


    Strength in retail sales and housing as well as business investment appear to be giving the US an edge at least relative to Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest economic data as well as the very latest updates on European fiscal stimulus and, not least, what is supposed to be the final act for Brexit.

    UP 225: Vaccine game changer; when to withdraw stimulus

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2020 23:54


    Monday's announcement of a breakthrough vaccine promises perhaps a timely turnaround for the global economy, in turn raising questions whether central banks will begin the delicate policy shift to stimulus withdrawal. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the latest implications of the US election as well as the immediate economic outlook which, given new restrictions underway in Europe, may not be positive at all.

    UP 224: Election quandary ups US stimulus doubts; RBA cut raises negative-rate talk

    Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2020 24:02


    The unknown outcome of the US election may be increasing the risk that new fiscal stimulus will either be limited or delayed. Our panel also discusses the Reserve Bank of Australia's move this week to cut interest rates and whether it may be anticipating increasing stimulus, perhaps negative rates, from other central banks including the European Central Bank and Bank of England both of which are facing a rising tide of Covid infections.

    UP 223: Global stimulus posing future risks; markets stable, growth struggling

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 20, 2020 30:37


    Financial markets, including currencies, are showing no dislocations despite surging global debt and aggressively stimulative monetary policy. And even more aggressive policy may in store amid the possibility that the general weakness of the economic recovery will force yet more central banks to adopt negative policy rates.

    UP 222: Market risk and the EU summit

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 13, 2020 31:38


    What to expect or not to expect from the EU leaders' summit is this week's feature, one that poses possible and immediate risks to UK assets. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss worldwide debt, worldwide disinflation, Greek bonds and global growth forecasts.

    UP 221: Asia doing best, US next, Europe last; Cries for fiscal help

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 8, 2020 29:39


    Relaxation of Covid restrictions is giving much of Asia an economic lift, while lack of new restrictions is a plus for the US. Yet in Europe infections are on the rise at the same time that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, both pressuring the European Central Bank to perhaps increase QE. For all regions, new fiscal stimulus, delayed or not, is the universal cry.

    UP 220: Central-bank policy cohesion showing cracks; fiscal outlooks updated

    Play Episode Listen Later Oct 6, 2020 27:52


    Reflecting the strains of Covid in Europe, splits may be showing at both the European Central Bank, where calls are appearing for greater QE, as well as the Bank of England where talk of negative rates has re-emerged. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also update the outlook for fiscal stimulus both in Europe and the US, and also discuss the possible market impact of US politics and the first presidential debate.

    UP 219: Europe facing second wave; September PMIs prove mixed

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2020 33:11


    How to control the pandemic while not limiting the economic recovery is the question for policy makers in Europe where talk of a second wave is building. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the general outlook for fiscal stimulus as well as September's run of PMIs and what to expect from the coming Swiss National Bank assessment.

    UP 218: Inflation versus Employment: Differences in Policy Approach

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 15, 2020 35:13


    Inflation is the first topic of discussion among many European central-bank policy makers, in distinct contrast to the US where the labor market is top on the agenda. The relative role that currency plays in policy making is also discussed, as are the latest developments over Brexit (specifically the UK’s Internal Market Bill).

    UP 217: European Stimulus in Focus; Brexit Heats Up

    Play Episode Listen Later Sep 8, 2020 28:02


    New stimulus from the European Central Bank on Thursday isn't likely but, given economic slowing and rising Covid rates, is possible. Uncertainty over passage of July's European recovery package is another risk our panelists discuss as well as new uncertainty over Brexit as the UK toughens its stance.

    UP 215: The politics of economic recovery: Who does it favor?

    Play Episode Listen Later Aug 18, 2020 27:42


    How is the sharp bounce back in economic data affecting politics, including the pending election in the US? Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also tackle questions surrounding the general weakness in production versus strength in retail sales and home sales.

    UP 206: US Consumer on Comeback, But Will Europe Follow?

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2020 29:22


    Government stimulus together with pent-up demand drove US retail sales sharply higher in May, raising the question whether consumer spending in Europe may also rebound. Other topics include quantitative easing at the Bank of England, foreign exchange intervention at the Swiss National Bank, and Europe's stake in ongoing Brexit negotiations.

    UP 205: Indications of a V-Recovery Are Hard to Find

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2020 20:20


    Outside of May's wildly strong US employment report, there is very little if any evidence of economic strength, whether in the US or Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss the outlook for Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement and revisit last week's European Central Bank meeting that produced a burst of new QE.

    UP 204: Troubles in Hong Kong and the US; ECB Adds Major Stimulus

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2020 30:50


    Hong Kong, hit previously by US-China trade disputes then civil unrest then Covid-19, is now being hit by China's security move which is raising questions over the city's status as a global financial center. Our panel also discusses social strife and unemployment in the US, the European Central Bank's dynamic but also careful move to increase QE, and the latest on Brexit and whether a no-deal trade deal is a risk.

    UP 203: Virus Effects on Government Policy

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2020 21:01


    Now is the testing time for cultural traditions in the US labor market and political unity in Europe. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender detail the latest in fiscal policy and also monetary policy including the pros and cons of negative interest rates.

    UP 202: Deflationary Forces Underway; Virus Blame Game Threatens Trade

    Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2020 22:50


    Prices for food may be going up but prices for just about everything else are going down. Policy implications of lower prices are discussed as well as what the coronavirus may mean for future production and also the risk that the US-China blame game poses to future trade.

    UP 201: A List of Risks: Global Trade, Deflation, Monetizing Debt

    Play Episode Listen Later May 6, 2020 27:37


    There are some signs of improvement in Asia, but not any yet in Europe and North America where virus impact is still severe. Our panel discusses emerging economic imbalances and what monetary and fiscal policy can and can't do to help.

    UP 200: The Ineffable Economic Collapse; European Policy Makers Not Pulling Their Weight

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2020 26:33


    The historic hole the global economy is falling into defies description. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss upcoming data, just released data, currencies, equities and also Europe's limited reaction to the crisis.

    UP 199: Global Economy at a Standstill But Some Shutdowns Easing

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 21, 2020 25:54


    With oil collapsing and infection rates still high, good news is hard to find. But Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender do their best, pointing to stability in the latest data out of China and a sharp jump in an expectations reading out of Germany where restrictions are easing.

    UP 198: Forecasting the Depth of Contraction as Lockdowns Already Ease

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2020 24:22


    Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the possible depth of global contraction underway along with key indicators that are coming up. Relative regional performances and relative stimulus efforts are also discussed, all against a backdrop of easing infection rates.

    UP 197: Markets Rebounding? Is the Worst Already Over?

    Play Episode Listen Later Apr 8, 2020 24:45


    Stock markets appear to be looking past an approaching round of numbingly bad economic data. Our panel discusses the coming numbers including next week's round out of China where quarter-end improvement is a possibility.

    UP 196: Early Virus Effects Mixed, Some Surprisingly Limited

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 31, 2020 24:49


    Global economic data now coming out for the month or March have not all been dire. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender explore the latest numbers; what they mean and the care needed in their interpretation. They also discuss the latest policy efforts to stem virus effects.

    UP 195: Evaluating March's PMIs; Central Banks Let Loose

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 24, 2020 21:44


    Global flash PMIs showed abrupt and severe slowing for services but sometimes surprisingly resilient results for manufacturing. And a clear positive for recovery is the extraordinary efforts by global central banks to cut rates, backstop loans, and print money to buy government bonds. Also stepping up have been national governments which are announcing major spending initiatives with the glaring exception, at least so far, of the US government.

    UP 194: Fiscal Stimulus on Top of Monetary Stimulus; Economic Downdraft Underway

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2020 18:52


    National governments across the world are starting to follow their central banks with fiscal stimulus incorporating, in some cases, massive spending and support programs. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the latest news and data including dislocations in the financial markets and global economy.

    UP 193: Central Banks Out of Ammo; Global Fiscal Stimulus Awaited

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 10, 2020 25:56


    Fiscal stimulus increasingly appears to be the best if not only option to fight the economic effects from the coronavirus given that monetary action, with global interest rates below zero or approaching zero and after a decade of quantitative easing, appears to be spent. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender discuss the outlook for economic policy amid the momentous developments playing out in the financial markets.

    UP 192: Central banks move to stem market rout; fiscal actions awaited

    Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2020 22:22


    With monetary policy already limited by low to negative interest rates, fiscal policies such as tax cuts and new spending appear to be the next course to offset the effects of the coronavirus. Our panel discusses what options may or may not be available to global policy makers.

    UP 191: Safe haven assets in demand as the coronavirus undermines investor sentiment

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 25, 2020 9:39


    Rising concerns about the spreading Covid-19 virus have significantly boosted investor appetites for safe haven instruments. Jeremy Hawkins discusses what the latest data tell us about the economic impact so far and what to look out for over coming months.

    UP 190: Global Data Already Weak Ahead of Virus Effects; 737 Hits US Output

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 18, 2020 20:21


    Fourth-quarter data were flat to negative in Europe and Japan and hint at the need for further policy stimulus going into the coronavirus. Initial February data on US manufacturing show no ill effects at all from the virus in contrast to January data that were hit hard, not by the virus, but by the 737 shutdown.

    UP 189: Coronavirus Raising Increasing Risks; Year-end European Swoon

    Play Episode Listen Later Feb 11, 2020 22:05


    Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, aren't yet downgrading their outlooks, but the unfolding effects of the coronavirus on Chinese output may be raising the odds for another round of global rate cuts. Jeremy Hawkins and Mark Pender also discuss a rare plunge in European economic activity at year-end as well as the risk in Asia, where economies are seeking stimulus, of an emerging currency war.

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