Podcasts about Relative

We've got ad managers denying Satanic board games, D&D flying into outer space, and *possibly* a Dragon Ball Z board game coming to fruition finally. What a time to be a gamer! We're on vacay right now, so enjoy this pre-recorded episode where we go through a bunch of recent news stories before taking a look inside the new Warhammer 40k box and drooling over what's coming soon.

Raquel thinks her cousin was hooking up with her ex while they were still together. Follow us on socials! @themorningmess

Gregory Copley previews the 2027 Nigerian presidential election, noting President Tinubu's likely run despite his health concerns. He contrasts Nigeria's relative calm with the revolutionary anarchy currently gripping the neighboring states in the Sahel. (10)1919

The relative pronoun "cui" connects two parts of a sentence and it is used with Italian prepositions that show the relationship between what is being said.Start learning Italian today!1. Explore more simple Italian lessons: https://italianmatters.com/2442. Download the Italian Verb Conjugation Blueprint: ⁠⁠⁠https://bit.ly/freebieverbblueprint⁠⁠⁠3. Subscribe to the YouTube lessons: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.youtube.com/italianmatters⁠⁠⁠The goal of the Italian Matters Language and Culture School is to help English speakers build fluency and confidence to speak the Italian language through support, feedback, and accountability. The primary focus is on empowering Italian learners to speak clearly and sound natural so they can easily have conversations in Italian. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

European dividend markets have long offered a different approach to income, yield, and shareholder returns compared to the U.S. But how do these markets behave when volatility spikes and global uncertainty hits? On this episode of The European Market Brief, Mark Longo is joined by Dr. Russell Rhoads, Stuart Heath (Eurex), and Kevin Soyer (S&P Global) for an in-depth look at European dividend markets during periods of market stress. The panel explores how European companies manage dividends differently from their U.S. counterparts, why dividend yields tend to be higher across the pond, and how dividend futures and options can provide unique insight into market expectations and future cash flows. The discussion also dives into: How European dividend policies differ from U.S. buyback-heavy strategies Dividend resilience during market turmoil and geopolitical shocks High-yield sectors in Europe including banks, utilities, insurers, and energy Dividend futures and options use cases for hedging and speculation Midcurve dividend options and evolving liquidity trends Relative value opportunities between U.S. and European markets The impact of inflation, rates, and market stress on dividend expectations Key takeaways from the recent Eurex conference including European 0DTE growth and volatility trends Plus, listener questions and Russell's recap of the latest developments shaping European derivatives markets. Brought to you by Eurex. Learn more at Eurex.com.

Welcome to The Turf Zone podcast. This episode features the article “How Should Fertility be Used to Manage Brown Patch Disease in Tall Fescue Lawns?” written by Dr. Brandon Horvath, Professor and Turfgrass Pathologist, University of Tennessee Plant Sciences. Tall fescue is a prominent lawn grass choice especially in the Middle and Eastern Tennessee regions where cool-season turfgrasses are more prevalently used. Brown patch, caused by Rhizoctonia solani, is the most damaging pathogen affecting tall fescue lawns throughout Tennessee. This fungal disease can transform a lush, vibrant lawn into a patchy, unsightly expanse when conditions favor disease development. While fungicide applications are often necessary for severe outbreaks, proper fertility management serves as the foundation of an effective preventative strategy. Fertility practices directly influence plant health, disease susceptibility, and recovery potential. Unfortunately, many common fertilization practices can actually make the problem worse. Supported by several years of research findings, we have recently employed a different approach that maintains some growth turfgrass potential via fertility that enables infected plants to recover following disease pressure. Understanding the relationship between fertility inputs and disease development will allow lawn care professionals to implement proactive management programs that reduce disease severity while maintaining a quality turfgrass stand. This article explains how different fertility approaches affect brown patch in tall fescue lawns and provides practical ideas for turfgrass managers to implement these approaches in a lawn care setting. Understanding Brown Patch Disease Pathogen Biology and Life Cycle Rhizoctonia solani is a soilborne fungal pathogen that is present in most turfgrass environments. The fungus survives unfavorable periods as mycelia in thatch and soil. Under specific environmental conditions, primarily with high temperature and humidity, the fungus becomes active and begins to attack the plant. In tall fescue, R. solani primarily infects the leaf blades and sheaths, creating lesions that eventually result in a circular “patch” appearance. The fungus spreads via mycelial growth, moving from plant to plant through direct contact. Unlike other turfgrass diseases, brown patch does not spread via spores. Environmental Triggers in Tennessee Tennessee's climate creates ideal conditions for brown patch development during much of the main growing season. The Brown Patch pathogen becomes active in response to: Temperature thresholds: Nighttime temperatures that consistently remain above 65 degrees Fahrenheit with daytime temperatures between 80 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit. These conditions typically develop in TN from mid-May through September, sometimes persisting into October. Humidity factors: Relative humidity that exceeds 80 percent greatly increases infection rates. Our humid summer climate, especially during nighttime, will frequently exceed this threshold. Leaf wetness: Extended leaf wetness periods of 10 plus hours dramatically increases infection rates. Evening irrigation practices, frequent summer thunderstorms, and morning dew are common in Tennessee and contribute to this risk factor. So, it is under these conditions that the plant becomes most susceptible to fungal attack and infection. Historically, conditions coincide with timing of when recommendations suggest backing off on fertility applications to allow the plant to “harden off”. However, our work has shown that a plant that is not able to actively recover will be in a worse position as multiple rounds of disease take place and decimate the stand. Nitrogen Management and Brown Patch Susceptibility Nitrogen is the most important nutrient for proper turfgrass growth, and there is a direct and significant impact on nitrogen management with brown patch susceptibility in tall fescue. Traditionally, research has shown that water-soluble, quick-release nitrogen sources (such as urea, ammonium sulfate, and ammonium nitrate) significantly increase brown patch severity compared to slow-release formulations. The main reason for this effect has been that at higher doses, the plant grows more rapidly, resulting in a thinner cuticle and lush, succulent growth. Modern practices, however, allow for much lower application rates of N fertility, and a spoon-feeding approach can often improve turfgrass performance. Using controlled-release nitrogen sources like polymer-coated urea will deliver nitrogen more gradually, which in turn will reduce disease-prone succulent growth while maintaining adequate plant growth for recovery. This relationship is really the key to using fertility to help manage the damage caused by brown patch. Ideally, the turfgrass manager wants the plant to grow just enough that when conditions aren't conducive for disease, the plant will grow out of the symptoms and recovery will take place. When that condition exists, the turfgrass plants will be capable that when exposed to another disease cycle, some damage will occur, yet recovery will again take place. Application Rate and Timing Under-fertilizing a turfgrass stand or lawn is much more common today than over-fertilizing. As long as the applicator avoids excessive nitrogen application during high-risk periods, one of the most common fertility mistakes that often leads to more severe brown patch outbreaks can be avoided. By providing the plant with “just enough” fertility, the need for plant growth can be balanced with not overstimulating the pathogen's ability to attack. I began to change my own perspectives on these recommendations about a decade ago, when some of our research clearly demonstrated that having moderate fertility applied during the growing season led to lower brown patch severity and also a decrease in undesirable competition from bermudagrass encroachment. As a result, I began making some adjustments in my recommendations on fertility: Late Spring (April to May): Limit applications to 0 point 5 to 0 point seven five pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet using primarily slow-release sources as temperatures begin to approach the brown patch threshold. Alternatively, one could use a very slow-release poly coat urea, that would provide approximately 3 pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet for the April to August Period (approximately 20 weeks) Summer (June to August): Make low rate applications (0 point 1 to 0 point 2 pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet; approximately point 6 to 1 point 2 pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet total for 3 months) during the highest risk brown patch season. These applications are made to just maintain some turfgrass growth and recovery potential without sparking lush succulent growth. Slow-release sources can also be used. Early Fall (September): Use fertilization at 0 point seven five to 1 point oh pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet as temperatures moderate to focus on turfgrass recovery from summer stress and disease pressure. Late Fall (October to November): Apply 1 point oh to 1 point 5 pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet, emphasizing root development and carbohydrate storage. In total, here in Tennessee, managers should target about 4 to 5 pounds of nitrogen per 1000 square feet per year for a quality Tall Fescue lawn. Making these slight adjustments in how we fertilize will help reduce the damage caused by disease while allowing for turfgrass recovery throughout the season, maintaining turf quality. Conclusion Effective brown patch management in tall fescue lawns requires an “all-hands” approach centered around proper fertility practices. By understanding the relationship between nutrition and disease development, lawn care professionals can significantly reduce brown patch severity while maintaining acceptable turf quality. Key takeaways include: Timing is critical: Avoid quick release, high rate, nitrogen applications during high-risk periods (June to August in Tennessee) Source matters: Use slow-release sources to smooth out nitrogen release over time mimicking a low rate “spoon feeding” approach Integrate approaches: Coordinate fertility with appropriate cultural practices and if needed, fungicide interventions Prevention focus: Implement proactive programs rather than reactive treatments Using these research-based fertility practices, I'm confident that turfgrass and grounds managers can significantly reduce the impact of brown patch in client and home landscapes while promoting healthier, more resilient tall fescue lawns. The post How Should Fertility be Used to Manage Brown Patch Disease in Tall Fescue Lawns? appeared first on The Turf Zone.

Join Rabbi Joey Rosenfeld as he guides us through the world and major works of Kabbalah, Hasidic masters, and Jewish philosophy, shedding light on the inner life of the soul. To learn more, visit JoeyRosenfeld.com

Greg Michaud, Head of Real Estate Finance, and Stefanie Stewart, Head of Real Estate Investments at Voya Investment Management, join Stewart Foley, CFA, to explore why commercial mortgages continue to stand out within fixed income markets despite significant changes across the broader investment landscape. They discuss how relative value opportunities remain attractive, even as spreads in many other asset classes have tightened.   The conversation examines today's commercial real estate lending environment, including property valuations, underwriting discipline, and the impact of interest rates on lending activity. Greg and Stefanie explain how market conditions have shifted from previous cycles and why stable underwriting standards and realistic borrower expectations are contributing to stronger lending vintages.   They also break down differences across core, bridge, and construction lending strategies, discuss where investors are finding compelling opportunities outside of crowded sectors, and share perspectives on portfolio construction, risk selection, and long-term investment partnerships for insurers.

Patricia O'Connor, Law Lecturer with TUS, joins Joe to advise on planning wills for families of children or adults with disabilities.Image via Getty. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Cheryl Strauss Einhorn joins Mike Palmer to discuss her latest book, The Human Edge: Smarter Decisions in the Age of AI. As the founder of Decisive and a former investigative journalist for Barron's, Cheryl brings a unique perspective to the world of problem solving. Her career shift from reporting on corporate scandals to teaching at Columbia University stems from a desire to move beyond simple awareness of cognitive biases and toward a system that actively counters them. The conversation centers on the AREA method, a decision making framework designed to manage the mental shortcuts that often lead us astray. Cheryl explains how her method separates research into distinct phases: Absolute, Relative, Exploration, Exploitation, and Analysis. By slowing down to evaluate information from multiple perspectives, decision makers can gain the conviction needed to act in high stakes environments. The Human Edge focuses specifically on how humans can remain the chief deciders while using AI as a cognitive sidecar. Cheryl notes that while AI provides speed and vast amounts of data, it lacks personal context and an understanding of human consequences. She warns against AI sycophancy, where tools mirror our own preferences back to us and narrow our worldview. To combat this, she introduces the concept of the cheetah pause, a deliberate deceleration that allows for the agility and maneuverability required to navigate complex problems. Mike and Cheryl also explore the role of AI in education and the workplace. They discuss using AI for perspective taking through role play, conducting pre-mortems to identify potential failures, and the importance of teaching decision science as a core competency in schools. The episode concludes with a reminder that our decisions define our future, and maintaining human agency is essential as we integrate powerful new technologies into our lives. Time Stamps: 00:00 - Introduction and professional origin story 03:50 - Transitioning from journalism to decision science 05:30 - Overview of The Human Edge and making decisions with AI 08:20 - Breaking down the AREA method 12:30 - Pre-mortems and the analysis of failure 15:45 - The risks of AI framing and the lack of human context 18:45 - Navigating research fire hoses and AI sycophancy 23:15 - Credibility, hallucinations, and the ROI of AI training 26:30 - The Cheetah Pause: finding agility through deceleration 31:10 - Using AI for perspective taking and agentic workflows 35:30 - AI as a safe space for learning and post-mortems 38:40 - Integrating decision making into the education system 40:50 - Closing thoughts: becoming the chief decider Links: The Human Edge: Smarter Decisions in the Age of AI: https://www.amazon.com/Human-Edge-Smarter-Decisions-Age/dp/1119931313 Decisive: https://www.areamethod.com/ Problem-Solver Type Quiz: https://www.areamethod.com/quiz/ Subscribe to Trending in Ed wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss an episode like this one. Visit us at Trending in Ed for more.

For decades, women and their doctors have been wary of Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT), especially after menopause, largely due to fear-mongering surrounding breast cancer risk. But what if I told you that much of this fear is based on flawed data, misinterpretations, and sensationalized media reports? In this episode, I dive deep into the truth, myths, and misconceptions around HRT and breast cancer. I'll unpack the infamous Women's Health Initiative study, exposing its significant design flaws and the detrimental impact of its media interpretation. Grab your seat for the Advanced Practice Nutrition Intensive!⁠Topics discussed: - The real story behind the HRT breast cancer scare- Relative vs. absolute risk- Synthetic vs. bioidentical hormones- New science- Beyond symptoms- Navigating your HRT journey

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  From a 10-bed lying-in hospital to Handel's Messiah, the Rotunda Maternity Hospital has operated continuously for 281 years. A Nurses' Week story. Summary Across the street from Danny’s Dublin hotel stood a large white institutional building with no signage. It turned out to be the Rotunda Hospital — the oldest continuously operating maternity hospital in the world, delivering babies in the same building since December 8th, 1757. Surgeon Bartholomew Mosse founded it after losing his wife and child in childbirth, trained as a midwife in Paris at a time when physicians were penalized for practicing midwifery, and returned to Dublin determined to build something that didn’t yet exist. The first version had 10 beds and delivered 190 babies in its first year, with one maternal death. Unable to raise money for a larger hospital — no one wanted to fund poor women’s care — Mosse attended the world premiere of Handel’s Messiah in Dublin in 1742 and was inspired. He turned the future hospital site into a pleasure garden with orchestras, dances, and theater to attract wealthy donors. He was later imprisoned for debt, escaped through a castle window in Wales, hid in the mountains for three weeks, and died exhausted and broke in 1759, less than two years after the new hospital opened. Sara E. Hampson, one of Florence Nightingale’s original nurses, became the hospital’s first female superintendent in 1891 — a thread that ties Nurses Week directly to this building, Danny almost walked past. Click here to view the printable newsletter. More readable than a transcript. Contents Podcast episode on YouTube Episode Proem: No Signage, No Appointment, No Problem Hello. Welcome to 2026 Nurses Week, May 6th through 12th. I’m very proud to be a nurse. I’ve been a nurse for 50 years. And my grandson’s going to nursing school next year. He’s graduating as a senior and will attend Loyola University in Chicago for its nursing program. I’m very proud. I want to tell you a story about one of the most significant things that happened during our trip to Ireland a couple of weeks ago. We were staying in the north-central city of Dublin, Ireland. Across the street, I saw a big white institutional facade with no signage. It looked like the side of the building. Next to it, on its right, was a dome with a more modern sign that read “Ambassador”. So, I went into the hotel and asked, “So what’s this building?” And they didn’t know. I looked it up, and it turned out to be the Rotunda Hospital. The Rotunda Hospital is the oldest freestanding maternity hospital in the world. Midwifery Was Scandalous. He Did It Anyway. Now let me see. I’ve got some notes here. The hospital was founded in 1745 by a man named Bartholomew Mosse, M-O-S-S-E. He was a certified surgeon. His wife and child died in childbirth. After this tragedy, he left Ireland to serve as a doctor with the British Army. While he was away, he received midwifery training at a hospital in Paris and obtained his midwifery license, which was unusual. In fact, fellows of the Royal College of Physicians were even penalized if they practiced midwifery. But Mosse wanted to change that. So, he built this small place, 10 beds, that… Let’s see, when did it open? I guess it opened in 1745. Mosse’s ambition was to build a dedicated maternity hospital in Dublin to provide medical care and shelter to the city's penniless mothers. This came after he encountered unspeakable conditions during his practice, particularly in the aftermath of the 1739 famine. So he established this 10-bed hospital. It was in a small theater called the New Booth Theatre. It says here that it was the first lying-in hospital of its kind in the world. It had only 10 beds, but in its first year, 190 babies were born, and just one mother died. But obviously, they couldn’t meet demand with 10 beds. When No One Funds Poor Mothers, Try Dancing Mosse tried to raise money to build a larger hospital, but nobody really wanted to give money to poor women. So he happened to attend the world premiere of Handel’s Messiah on April 13, 1742. While he was there, he was inspired to raise money by entertaining the wealthy. Somebody sent me a picture of the Handel statue that’s in front of the theater where the premiere was, which I thought would be interesting. According to my research, on the evening of April 13th, 1742, Handel conducted the world premiere of his Messiah on Dublin’s Fishamble Street, and Mosse was present. Historians suggest that this moment crystallized Mosse’s idea of using high-society entertainment to fund a hospital for the poor. So Mosse turned the proposed hospital site into a pleasure garden with a live orchestra, theatrical performances, and dances in a coffee house, marrying philanthropy with frivolity to reach the wealthy. Debt, Daring Escape, Death Here’s a little interesting tidbit. Lotteries nearly destroyed Dr. Mosse. Before he was able to return to Ireland, he was arrested and charged with being 200 pounds in debt, and he’s thought to have been imprisoned in Beaumaris Castle in Anglesey, Wales. The story was that he managed to escape through a window and hid in the Welsh mountains for three weeks before reaching Ireland. He then vindicated himself by publishing his receipts and lottery accounts, whatever. But less than a year after the hospital opened, he was taken seriously ill, exhausted, heavily in debt, and petrified about the prospect of arrest and imprisonment. He died on February 16th, 1759. Fix the Air, Save the Babies. Then and Now. Around 1781, when the hospital was poorly ventilated and every sixth child died within nine days of birth, they realized the problem was poor ventilation. Ventilation was improved, and mortality dropped to 1 in 20 over the following five years. They’re also planning to celebrate their millionth birth in 2026. It’s just amazing. I met a saleswoman in a sweater store who asked where we went in Dublin. When I told her about the Rotunda Hospital, she said she had a difficult pregnancy and birth without insurance. She received care at the Rotunda Hospital, with her baby in neonatal intensive care for three weeks and herself as an inpatient for two weeks. Awesome care! So, when we were there, I, an old white guy in a wheelchair, motored into the Rotunda Hospital and stopped at the registration desk to ask if I could speak with someone. I had not made an appointment. I was leaving the next day. Very nice people. I tried to get hold of people in their library, research, and marketing, but they were busy, of course. Oldest? It's Relative. I’m really impressed by the idea of being the world's longest-operating specialist hospital. I was trying to get some perspective on that, so I looked up the oldest continuously operating hospitals, and here’s what I learned. I learned that in the United States, the oldest continuously operating hospital is Bellevue Hospital in New York City, which opened in 1736 as a six-bed infirmary.[1] So, it began as a haven for the indigent and is still a major public hospital on the East Side of Manhattan. It opened nine years before Mosse opened his first lying-in hospital. The other long-running hospital is the Pennsylvania Hospital in Philadelphia[2], established in 1751 by Benjamin Franklin and Dr. Thomas Bond. It’s still operational as part of the University of Pennsylvania Health System. The oldest hospital is the Hôtel-Dieu in Paris[3], which officially opened in 650 AD, and that’s the hospital where Mosse became a midwife. There’s St. Bartholomew’s Hospital in London, founded in 1123[4]. And there’s the Hospital de Jesús Nazareno in Mexico City, opened in 1524. But really, the Rotunda is the oldest maternity-only specialist hospital, continuously operating in the world, which is a more specific and arguably more impressive claim than the general acute care hospitals Bellevue and Hôtel-Dieu, which have both moved buildings, changed missions, and been rebuilt. The Rotunda has been delivering babies in the same building since December 8th, 1757. That’s really something. Reflection: Nightingale Was Here Too So, let’s bring this back to Nurses Day and to Florence Nightingale. Interestingly, Sara E. Hampson was one of the original Nightingale nurses and the first lady superintendent of the Rotunda Hospital in 1891. So yay, nursing. Yay, history. I’m really looking forward to exploring more of this amazing hospital in Dublin. I wonder who was in charge all these years, and how it survived past Mosse and through those first decade or first few years? And then, how did the Rotunda Hospital survive war, famine, pandemics, and technological change? What research occurred there? Is there a diaspora of Rotunda alumni? Anyway, more to come. Thanks. Referenced in episode [1] By Harper’s Weekly – Harper’s Weekly, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=6014479 [2] William Strickland (1788-1854) Engraver: Samuel Seymour (1796-1823), Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons [3] I, Clio, CC BY-SA 3.0 , via Wikimedia Commons [4] See page for author, CC BY 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons Are you part of the Rotunda Hospital diaspora? Find me at dannyhealthhats@gmail.com. Tell me your version. Please comment and ask questions: at the comment section at the bottom of the show notes on LinkedIn  via email YouTube channel  DM on Instagram, TikTok to @healthhats Substack Patreon Production Team Kayla Nelson: Web and Social Media Coach, Dissemination, Help Desk  Leon van Leeuwen: editing and site management Oscar van Leeuwen: video editing Julia Higgins: Digit marketing therapy Steve Heatherington: Help Desk and podcast production counseling Joey van Leeuwen, Drummer, Composer, and Arranger, provided the music for the intro, outro, proem, and reflection Claude, Perplexity, Auphonic, Descript, Grammarly, DaVinci Inspired by and Grateful to: Dr. Lisa Masinter and Dr. Michele Whitt, Janice Tufte, Linda DeRosa, Luc Pelletier, Cherie Binns Photo Credits  Ann Boland, Paul Boland, Janice Tufte, Danny van Leeuwen, and as referenced in the transcript Related episodes from Health Hats https://health-hats.com/pod133/ https://health-hats.com/ob-nurse-cannabis-nurse/ https://health-hats.com/build-it-and-they-will-come/ Artificial Intelligence in Podcast Production Health Hats, the Podcast, utilizes AI tools for production tasks such as editing, transcription, and content suggestions. While AI assists with various aspects, including image creation, most AI suggestions are modified. All creative decisions remain my own, with AI sources referenced as usual. Questions are welcome. Creative Commons Licensing CC BY-NC-SA This license enables reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator. If you remix, adapt, or build upon the material, you must license the modified material under identical terms. CC BY-NC-SA includes the following elements:    BY: credit must be given to the creator.   NC: Only noncommercial uses of the work are permitted.    SA: Adaptations must be shared under the same terms. Please let me know. dannyhealthhats@gmail.com  Material on this site created by others is theirs, and use follows their guidelines. Disclaimer The views and opinions presented in this podcast and publication are solely my responsibility and do not necessarily represent the views of the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute®  (PCORI®), its Board of Governors, or Methodology Committee. Danny van Leeuwen (Health Hats)

Laughter in a new place! Have you found us in our new home? Clinton brings the laughter with The Temp #11, comedy4cast: Relative, Please, and Tek Diff #219-2009 Advent Calendar Supercut 2! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The oddest person in the family. Whether you need a helping hand, a friendly ear, or even just some good advice, members of your own family can sometimes be the best place to turn. However, today's Odd News story might make you think twice about who you are talking to. It could have you questioning everything you know about your relatives. Learn how the real-life solution to a problem might lead to a shakeup in the family tree. But that's not all. We're also celebrating 20 years of comedy4cast by playing classic clips from the past two decades. In this episode, we've pulled a sketch from the archives that proves some things never change. First released in 2008, this clip deals with a problem many office workers have struggled with since the invention of the office refrigerator. Guard your lunch and check out a skit that only comedy4cast could deliver. Listen to the episode to learn the full Odd News story and celebrate two decades of comedy with us! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Life doesn't always get easier with seniority - nor do home moves. That's why experts are revealing tricks of the trade designed to make moving home a breeze for your elderly family member… and you, too.Info: https://www.truefriendsmovingcompany.com/nashville/senior-living-moving/ True Friends Moving Company City: Nashville Address: 700 East Old Hickory Blvd Website: https://www.truefriendsmovingcompany.com/

Laughter in a new place! Have you found us in our new home? Clinton brings the laughter with The Temp #11, comedy4cast: Relative, Please, and Tek Diff #219-2009 Advent Calendar Supercut 2

The oddest person in the family. Whether you need a helping hand, a friendly ear, or even just some good advice, members of your own family can sometimes be the best place to turn. However, today's Odd News story might make you think twice about who you are talking to. It could have you questioning everything you know about your relatives. Learn how the real-life solution to a problem might lead to a shakeup in the family tree. But that's not all. We're also celebrating 20 years of comedy4cast by playing classic clips from the past two decades. In this episode, we've pulled a sketch from the archives that proves some things never change. First released in 2008, this clip deals with a problem many office workers have struggled with since the invention of the office refrigerator. Guard your lunch and check out a skit that only comedy4cast could deliver. Listen to the episode to learn the full Odd News story and celebrate two decades of comedy with us!

Despite the historical energy disruption from the Iran conflict, stocks are back to record highs. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats discuss different views and fundamentals driving markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today: oil, oil inventories, and the price at the pump.It's Wednesday, May 6th, at 2pm in London.Martijn, it's great to talk to you. We remain in this very unique market where on the one hand, the energy market is severely disrupted. On the other hand, we're making new all-time highs in the stock market. And part of this debate is a creeping sense that maybe the energy market is just a lot more resilient than many people initially thought.So, let's just jump right into it. As you look at the current state of the world, the state of things, how are you seeing the energy market at the moment?Martijn Rats: There are definitely two views in the market. I would say commodity specialists, oil traders, people that trade oil and gas equities for a living, tend to focus on the size of the supply shock. And it is neither hyperbole nor disputed that the size of the supply shock is the largest in the history of the oil market. We have the statistical data to back that up. That is not a controversial statement.But at the same time, the other view in the market, generally held by your generalist investors who invest across many markets. They tend to focus on the likelihood or possibility that this supply shock might also be uniquely short. It was there all of a sudden, from one day to the next, the strait was closed. It felt a bit man-made, so to say. It was an outcome of a political decision, and that can also be undecided. And so, this is – the to-ing and fro-ing in the market is; on the one hand, this shock is very, very large. But the other hand it may also be very, very short.Now we went into this supply shock, arguably well-prepared. In the sense that during the course of like late 2024, all of 2025, and the very early part of 2026, we were telling a story of oversupply surplus. And on top of that, given the military buildup was going on in January and February, a lot of countries in the Arabian Gulf – Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait – visibly put out a lot of oil at sea.So, in the oversupply of 2025, we put oil in storage in lots of places that we can't always see. But that seems very likely. Oil in the water was very, very high. So, we have been living off these buffers, and that has helped. And then, yeah, at any point in time, there were good enough reasons to assume that on a timeframe of a couple of weeks, this would largely be resolved. We would eat into these buffers, draw some inventory.And it has been hard for the market then to really capitalize the size of the supply shock and say, "Yeah, really oil prices need to spike very, very high." And in that sense, we're left with this significant supply shock, but we haven't taken out the highs that we saw in 2022, for example.Andrew Sheets: So maybe a way to think about this, right, is that if we imagined all of that oil as sitting in a big tank. We've kind of stopped a lot of the flow into the top of the tank as the Strait of Hormuz has remained closed. But oil's still able to drain out of the bottom, kind of, like normal because that tank is being drained. Those inventories have been drawn down. Maybe that's a quite a crude analogy, to forgive the pun.But how long can that last? I mean, if we think about these inventories, if we think about the speed of which they're being drawn down; and I think that's an important point that you mentioned, that these inventories were unusually high going in. But they're obviously not unlimited.Where does that stand? And I guess, you know, what is the limit of that? How long can those inventory draws last?Martijn Rats: Yeah, yeah. To say that this is the billion-dollar question would be understating it, Andrew. It's also a unusually complicated question to answer in the sense that it depends very heavily on the region, on the product that you're looking at. Jet fuel in Europe, NAFTA in Asia, you might see something sooner. But other products in other regions, you know, might take longer.We often don't really know where the operational limitations of inventories are. Globally, we see something like 8 billion barrels of oil in some form of storage. That is an enormous amount. We can't draw that down to zero because a lot of that is there for operational, like working capital type reasons. Just to facilitate the operations of the industry. Is the floor seven? Is the floor six? These things are hard to answer.Andrew Sheets: You've got to have some oil in the pipeline to make the pipeline flow…Martijn Rats: Exactly, exactly. You can't operate a refinery if you don't have at least some storage right next to it. It just doesn't work. So, these things are hard to know. But I would say that we are eating through these buffers very, very re-rapidly now. Oil on water has largely normalized and is no longer elevated.We are seeing very large inventory draws across every data point that we have on refined products. Refined products are universally drawing. On crude, the data is more patchy. But we are seeing large inventory draws now coming through in the United States. I would say – and this is partly having worked with this data for a long time and sort of developing some market feel rather than very analytical spreadsheets, so to say. But I would say that if the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz does not resume on the sort of next four to six weeks, we will get very, very tight by June, early summer.And, well, look, I mean, from there, it's simply… You know, if you then were to forecast. You know, project forward from there on. It would be getting tight by August, September. But of course, that's done under the assumption that the flow remains impaired over that period, which I would say most market participants would not assume at the moment.Andrew Sheets: And another point that comes up sometimes, at least in my conversations, is, ‘Oh, but, you know, maybe Venezuelan oil is going to be coming online.' There's more investment. The U.S. seems very focused on increasing oil output in Venezuela. You know, can that match in any sense the scale of what we've had disrupted here?Martijn Rats: No, that is a complicated issue in the sense that, you know, growing oil production takes time. It takes capital, it takes equipment, it takes a lot of people. Venezuela at the moment, produces a bit more than a million barrels a day. I'd have to say, like, relative to the size of Venezuela's production, the last two monthly data points have actually come in better than expected. But you're talking about 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day, that sort of thing. Relative to a supply shock that is 13-14 million barrels a day.The fastest ever single amount of production growth of any country in any year was 2018. U.S. shale with natural gas liquids included grew 2 million barrels a day in a single year. But yeah, even that…Andrew Sheets: So, 2 million barrels relative to 14 million barrels lost is…Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly.Andrew Sheets A drop in the bucket. Martijn Rats: And that had a huge run-up of several years of putting the infrastructure in place to do that. I mean, it…. You don't turn it on a dime either. So no, that remains difficult.Andrew Sheets: So, you know, maybe a dynamic to close with is actually another way that I think people care about the oil price, you know, besides their portfolio – which is they drive.And, you know, you had a great stat in your report that one out of every 11 barrels of oil that's produced ends up in an American car. And the U.S. is a big producer. Its inventories have been drawing down. There are clear signs that the U.S. is exporting a lot of energy, and as a result, gas prices are also going up in the U.S.So, you know, what… If you could just talk a little bit about the move in gasoline and maybe, you know, I think this could be a good segue into this idea of distillates into, kind of, parts of refined product. And how those prices can deviate or not from the barrel of oil we often talk about. And then even just more generally, kind of what is the price at the pump that people might need to think about as you head into the summer – assuming, you know, this conflict is still somewhat uncertain.Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, the United States is very interesting at the moment. In the sense that the regular discourse about the United States is that the United States is energy independent because it is a net oil producer. And at the most aggregate level, that is correct. But that doesn't mean that the United States is not connected to the rest of the world from an oil market perspective. I would say actually it's the opposite.The U.S. oil market is deeply connected to the rest of the world. It is a net exporter because there are very large imports, and there are very large exports, and it just happens so that the exports are a little bit bigger than the imports. So, it's a net exporter.But flows in both directions exist for every product – for crude, for diesel, for gasoline. So, the U.S. should be the last place to have physical disruptions because the supply is close to home. But in the end, it's so connected; that in the end, there's only one global oil price – and we all pay it, including in the United States.Now, because of the deficits at the moment, in Asia, to [an] extent in Europe, there is a very large pool on oil from the United States, and we're seeing that across the board. Crude oil exports were 4 million barrels a day, at the start of the year. They're now running sort of 5.5, even 6 million barrels a day. So, there's a lot of crude being pulled out of the United States. That is partly also the SBR release, the release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But the export's very, very large.Another product where that is also happening is in gasoline. Now, the gasoline market in the United States has a degree of complexity to it in the sense that the U.S. is a big importer of gasoline in the East Coast and the West Coast, but then a big exporter from the Gulf Coast.Andrew Sheets: Hunh! Okay. Yeah.Martijn Rats: Net-net, it's an exporter, but in the East Coast and the West Coast, big, big importer. Now, in Europe, for example, we are normally long gasoline, short diesel. We export our surplus to the U.S. East Coast. But, at the moment, it's tight in Europe, so we're not exporting that much gasoline. So, imports in the United States have dropped a lot.At the same time, Asian customers, Brazilian customers, Mexican customers [are] pulling a lot of gasoline out of the Gulf Coast. And as a result, the net exports are unusually high for this time of the year. On top of that, the Strait of Hormuz issue has tightened the diesel market so much relative to the gasoline market that it is favorable for refineries to maximize their diesel output over their gasoline output.Andrew Sheets: Hmm. And these are decisions you can make in terms of how you crack that barrel in a refinery and split it up.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Within a relatively narrow window, but you can make tweaks that are significant. Now, normally, we're going into this summer driving season, refineries switch from what we call max diesel to max gasoline. At the moment, they are not doing that.Andrew Sheets: Mm.Martijn Rats: So, you have low gasoline production, and you have large net exports of gasoline. Over the last 11 weeks already, we have seen a very significant, very significant decline in gasoline inventories in the United States. And prices have risen at the pump. The nation's average is now $4.50 per barrel, as of reports this morning.The summer driving season has yet to start. That can become $4.70, $4.80. That can become $5. Above $5 is historically a point where people get, yeah, worried about demand destruction. And it has a real impact.Andrew Sheets: Well, Martijn, I think this remains such an important and interesting story. And even if, you know, it can seem sometimes like the market has moved on to other things, clearly there are a lot of other factors driving the equity market. It remains pretty historic, pretty significant, and pretty complicated. Also, something that I think, you know, affects the day-to-day spending and lives of a lot of people out there.So, Martijn, again, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: Thank you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

It's Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff are taking your questions live from the YouTube chatroom. From markets at all-time highs and rising pullback risk, to Fed policy, rates, and portfolio positioning, we're breaking down what matters most right now. With stocks extended, volume thinning out, and momentum showing signs of fatigue, is this a healthy pause or the start of a correction? What should investors and traders be doing right here? Key topics include: 0:00 - INTRO 0:57 - Markets Rally, Oil Plunges 4:05 - AI Trade is Back - but watch for reversal 7:52 - Vanguard Bond Builders - Bonds vs ETF's 12:32 - Best Store of Cash for a Portfolio? 14:39 - Couples with Pensions 17:06 - How did you react to downturn in the market? 19:59 - Lump Sum vs Pension Payout? 21:15 - The Thing About High-Yield Bonds 23:15 - What About the "Bucket Strategy" for Managine Risk? 24:31 - What Happens if Pensions Go Broke? 26:12 - Technical - Is the MACD Ever Wrong (and what is it?) 28:14 - Technical - What is the difference between Absolute & Relative scores? 32:28 - Where Are Rotations Going Next? 33:33 - Why Aren't Nvidia & Palantir Part of This Advance? 35:32 - Are Gold Stocks a Decent Buy? 38:16 - Use of Inverse ETF's as Hedges 39:03 - Portfolio Over- & Under-weighting 39:58 - How to Work with RIA? 40:44 - What if U.S. Dissolves? 42:35 - Don't Worry; Be Happy 43:07 - Managing Stocks w Different Advisors 45:35 - What's Your Story? 46:20 - The Thing About Apple & Microsoft 50:48 - BOE Interest Rates & Impact on Gold Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/TFn61TpR-Fc ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" feature, "AI Rally Nears Exhaustion," here: https://youtu.be/cievTNHiw6Y ------- Watch our previous show, "Investing vs Trading - Finding the Balance," https://youtube.com/live/LGDW2OXJ6oo ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, Saturday, May 16: "Financial Organization Made Simple:" https://streamyard.com/watch/SA6aj2aMdMhf -------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #AIStocks #MarketOutlook #RiskManagement

CMON apparently has enough money for NFTs, we get convinced to give Brass: Pittsburgh a try, and Philip finds his new favorite barbarian options in D&D! Also, I review Monster Vault 2 from Kobold Press for their Tales of the Valiant RPG, and we've got some answers in our Ask a Dirtbag GM segment!

What happens to your judgment when AI starts answering before you finish the question?In this episode, Dr. Fonz sits down with Cheryl Strauss Einhorn, founder of Decisive, decision-sciences educator at Cornell and the University of Miami, and author of the new book The Human Edge: Smarter Decisions in the Age of AI (Cornell Publishing, May 8th). Cheryl spent over a decade as an investigative journalist at Barron's, where her bearish company stories halted stock trading, shut down companies, and once helped send a CEO to ten years in prison. That work taught her something every educator and student needs to hear right now: the hardest part of any decision isn't the information. It's the judgment.Cheryl walks us through her AREA Method (Absolute, Relative, Exploration & Exploitation, Analysis), a system for complex problem solving built to check our cognitive biases and protect our thinking when we work with AI. She unpacks why "AI as a time-saver" is a myth doing real damage in classrooms, why students still feel pressure to run their assignments through AI to "polish them up," and why the eight moments of human judgment in any complex decision are the things educators should be teaching first.We also get into the cautious advocate's question: what mindset shift do tenured professors need to feel their expertise still matters? How do we lower the barrier for the educators who haven't started using these tools yet? And what does learning look like five years from now if we get this right?Whether you're a K-12 teacher, a professor, a district leader, or a student wondering how to keep your own voice in your own work, this conversation will give you a framework to stop outsourcing your thinking and start leading the machine.Chapters00:00 Introduction to AI and Decision Making04:59 Cheryl's Journey and the Area Method09:57 Understanding the Human Edge in AI14:59 Reclaiming Agency in Decision Making20:10 The Area Method Explained24:48 Challenges and Insights from Teaching AI31:06 The Role of Educators in AI38:37 Debunking AI Myths

In our Question Time podcast, Martin Lewis gives you answers on anything and everything, including: can I shift a £15,000 loan to a 0% credit card to cut costs? How do I find any car finance agreements my deceased father had so we can reclaim them for my step-mum? Can I trick the bank into thinking I'm a higher earner to get £500 for free? We have a huge success, where one call to this podcast got our caller £5,000 back! Plus, we reveal what we're going to call you if you ask a question or come on the podcast. What is it? You'll have to listen to find out, of course! If you want to ask Martin a question, you now can! His Question Time podcast lets you ask Martin absolutely anything and everything (within reason!). So, if you've always wanted to know his ideal bathwater temperature, the highest note he can sing, or have a very complicated question about your finances, email it to MartinLewisPodcast@bbc.co.uk.

SummaryIn the Coffee House, Jonny and John Mark are joined by James Dolezal to explore angelic incorporeity and why speculative angelology has fallen out of fashion. They discuss how empiricism and scientism have undermined confidence in immaterial realities and left Christians with thinner conceptual categories for speaking about angels, souls, and God, even when Scripture clearly teaches angels exist. Dolezal argues that recovering robust metaphysics helps distinguish God from even the highest creatures, critiques popular Genesis 6 “Nephilim interbreeding” theories as metaphysically incoherent, and explains angels as created pure spirits with finitude grounded not in matter but in act-potency and essence-existence composition. The conversation also surveys early Protestant interest in angelology and touches on angelic knowledge, power, and natural immortality.Timestamps00:00 Defining Incorporeality01:34 Angels and Immaterial Implications04:09 Why Talk About Angels05:56 Modernity and Scientism09:48 Losing Metaphysical Categories11:57 Nephilim and Cultural Confusion15:14 AI Angels and Creaturely Simplicity16:53 Created Pure Spirits Explained18:53 Matter Form and Finitude23:23 Spiritual Matter Debate26:40 Genesis Six Revisited30:17 No Sensual Appetites32:33 Universal Hylomorphism Challenge34:15 Essence Existence in Angels36:17 Relative Infinity Explained37:56 God Every Way Infinite42:06 Protestant Angelology Returns47:24 Empiricism and Witch Trials51:15 Satan Pride and Jealousy58:06 How Angels Know01:02:05 Angels Clarify God01:06:33 Wrap Up and Next Time LinksPurchase James' book "All That is in God"Support the showContact Broken WharfeTweet us @Brokenwharfe Find us on Facebook at BrokenWharfeFollow us on Instagram at BrokenWharfeEmail us at info@brokenwharfe.comThanks for listening!

AP correspondent Charles de Ledesma reports the US-Israel-Iran war could forces large numbers of Iranians living in Turkey to return home.

In this episode of the Day 0 Update: We talk about the "huge" change to Alex's story in SF6, what Xbox needs to do about Game Pass, and a bad sign of what's to come in the games industry. All this and more, up next!Full show notes can be found ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠.

Markets have staged a powerful rally off the recent lows, reclaiming the 200-DMA and pushing to new highs. Historically, when markets recover that level within four weeks, forward returns tend to improve—and this time, the rebound happened in just three weeks. Momentum is strong, money flows have flipped positive, and moving averages are turning higher. So why not chase it? Because the market is now stretched. Relative strength is overbought, and prices are significantly extended above key moving averages. When markets get this far ahead of their trend, short-term pullbacks are common—even within bullish setups. Over the past two years, rallies like this have repeatedly reset back toward support before continuing higher. This doesn't signal a major selloff. It suggests a pause or correction that creates better entry points. From a portfolio management perspective, this is a time to stay disciplined: trim profits, rebalance risk, and raise some cash. Identify positions that lagged during both the decline and the recovery, and consider reallocating. Small adjustments now can position you to take advantage of the next pullback. Patience here may offer a better opportunity to add exposure at more favorable levels. Hosted by RIA Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer --- Watch the Video version of this report on our YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/gbk9otKae2Q --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ --- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #MarketOutlook #TechnicalAnalysis #PortfolioManagement

Become a Relative & send some loveYou can tell who really wants it the moment nobody is watching. Coach Antoine is back after a break, and he's using a personal milestone as the launch point: his oldest daughter's final year of middle school softball and what it means to coach through a major transition. We talk about why he started coaching, how the Mamie Johnson Little League community shaped his approach, and why the best youth sports lessons have almost nothing to do with a scoreboard. Softball moves fast, and the pressure is real, so we dig into the mental side of the game: focus, confidence, handling mistakes, and building a team culture that holds up in tough moments. Coach shares a simple but powerful practice tool, the “word of the day,” to teach discipline, communication, and values that players can carry into school and life. We also unpack the jump from Little League to travel ball and the standards that separate “good” from truly prepared, including training habits, film work, and the grind of getting better off the field. Then we go beyond the diamond: what student athletes owe their families, how home preparation reduces stress, and how parents' sacrifice shapes a player's mindset. Coach also speaks on access to fields, equipment, and practice space in DC, plus his long-term goal to build a training facility through Diamond Edge Academy for baseball and softball development year-round. If you care about youth softball, student athlete development, and building disciplined competitors with strong character, this one's for you. Subscribe, share with a coach or parent, and leave a review with the biggest lesson you want young athletes to hear.Relationships Worth More Than Money by Tweezy Kennedy & Marcus Allandavailable on all streaming platforms!Support the showLike, Comment, Share & Subscribe!!Instagram: @rwmtmpodYoutube: https://www.youtube.com/@RWMTMpodGet RWMTM MERCH HERE!!!!! https://streamlabs.com/tweezydabeatterroristkennedy/merch

BackerKit has a huge selection of great RPG campaigns this month, speaking of crowdfunding, CMON might be back? And also, time to get dangerous in your D&D games! Plus, we have Alex Kimerling from Hootenanny Games on the show to talk about one of their newest board games, Sneaky Scallywags!

Watch it here:  https://youtu.be/Ttd1QHDPlpsIn Episode 255 of the Further Your Lifestyle Podcast, host Chris explores how success, stress, failure, and progress are shaped by the “world” each person lives in, making perspective relative. He explains that what feels normal is built from individual experiences, using running and his own marathon story to show how different standards can distort judgment. Chris discusses why comparison is a trap because it ignores context, timelines, lessons, and opportunities, including the idea of leveraging an “unfair advantage.” He warns against forgetting how far you've come as growth quickly makes once-impossible challenges feel normal, and he highlights the power of zooming out by asking what your past self would think of your current progress. He closes by reminding listeners everyone is fighting unseen battles and offers reflection questions to reframe self-judgment.00:00 Welcome Back Intro00:33 Perspective Shapes Reality02:27 Your Normal Is Experience05:01 Comparison Without Context07:44 Forgetting Your Progress10:19 Zoom Out Shift Perspective11:51 Everyone Has Battles13:36 Reflection Questions OutroPodcast Sponsors:Robert PiperHi Voltage BargainsEthan “Rooshock” The BOLO Hunter PODCAST: https://www.furtheryourlifestyle.com/► SUBSCRIBE to the podcast on▹ Spotify | https://bit.ly/FYL_Spotify▹ Apple Podcast | https://bit.ly/FYL_Apple▹ Google Podcast | https://bit.ly/FYL_GooglePod► Let's CONNECT on social media:▹ instagram | http://www.instagram.com/furtheryourlifestyle▹ email | hello@furtheryourlifestyle.comMUSIC:» via https://www.epidemicsound.com/referral/6hfvrvContinue the conversation:  @furtheryourlifestyleJoin the Newsletter: check it out

On this Ask KT & Suze Anything episode, Suze answers your questions about taxes, helping family with money and Roths. Plus, how much cash should you keep at home and so much more! Learn more about the Ultimate Scam Protection program and register for Suze’s April 23 webinar here: SuzeOrman.com Watch Suze’s YouTube Channel Jumpstart financial wellness for your employees: https://bit.ly/SecureSave Protect your financial future with the Must Have Docs: https://bit.ly/3Vq1V3GGet your savings going with Alliant Credit Union: https://bit.ly/3rg0YioGet Suze’s special offers for podcast listeners at suzeorman.com/offerJoin Suze’s Women & Money Community for FREE and ASK SUZE your questions which may just end up on the podcast. Download the app by following one of these links: CLICK HERE FOR APPLE: https://apple.co/2KcAHbHCLICK HERE FOR GOOGLE PLAY: https://bit.ly/3curfMISee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In today's relationship advice story, OP (33F) explains that her husband (36M) secretly planned an affair during a trip she organised and paid for. She discovered his intentions and is devastated, feeling betrayed after putting time, money and effort into the holiday. OP is now questioning what to do next.0:00 Intro0:20 Story 14:00 Story 1 Comments 6:55 Story 1 Update9:44 Story 1 Comments13:00 Story 215:00 Story 2 Comments / OP's Replies20:35 Story 2 Update Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Continuing his exploration of selflessness, Joseph Goldstein helps listeners live in the balance of both relative and ultimate truth.This episode is a continuation of a talk that started in episode 259, "Selflessness, Dukkha, and Freedom."This episode is brought to you by BetterHelp. Give online therapy a try at betterhelp.com/insighthour and get on your way to being your best self.This time on Insight Hour, Joseph Goldstein discusses:The impersonal nature of experiencing peaceSeeing with consciousness rather than with the subjective mindReframing the language of experience with a passive voiceBeing fully present in the moment without identificationUnderstanding death and dying as the natural flow of impermanenceHaving an easeful mind even when the body is afflictedUnderstanding both relative and ultimate truthThe wonderful and joyful practice of generosity This episode was recorded at the Barre Center for Buddhist Studies and originally published on Dharmaseed“We work to understand the dynamics of our conventional reality and all the challenges of it, even as we understand the essential selfless nature of it all. This is really the heart of a mature spiritual practice, the union of these two, not the separation." –Joseph Goldstein See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Lady smashed relative in the head with a pink hammer for stealing her brother's ashes. Mount Everest accused of poisoning foreign climbers to force fake helicopter rescues in an insurance scam that netted tens of millions. Pastor arrested after man drowns in a baptism ceremony. Weird AF News is the only daily weird news podcast in the world. Weird news 5 days/week and on Friday it's only Floridaman. SUPPORT by joining the Weird AF News Patreon http://patreon.com/weirdafnews - OR buy Jonesy a coffee at http://buymeacoffee.com/funnyjones Buy MERCH: https://weirdafnews.merchmake.com/ - Check out the official website https://WeirdAFnews.com and FOLLOW host Jonesy at http://instagram.com/funnyjones - wants Jonesy to come perform standup comedy in your city? Fill out the form: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSfvYbm8Wgz3Oc2KSDg0-C6EtSlx369bvi7xdUpx_7UNGA_fIw/viewform

In this episode of The President's Daily Brief: After a tense, multi-day search behind enemy lines, U.S. forces successfully rescue the second crew member of a downed F-15E Strike Eagle, denying Tehran what could have been a major propaganda victory and showcasing a complex, high-risk recovery operation. Fears are growing that Russia is testing a familiar destabilization strategy in Estonia, as pro-Kremlin actors push the idea of a separatist “Narva People's Republic” inside a NATO member state. New reports suggest Kyiv may be opening another front against Russia, launching drone strikes from Libya targeting Moscow's shadow fleet operating in the Mediterranean. U.S. immigration authorities detain the niece of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani after the Trump administration revokes her green card over alleged ties to Iran's regime. To listen to the show ad-free, become a premium member of The President's Daily Brief by visiting https://PDBPremium.com. Please remember to subscribe if you enjoyed this episode of The President's Daily Brief. YouTube: youtube.com/@presidentsdailybrief StopBox: Get firearm security redesigned and save 10% off @StopBoxUSA with code PDB10 at https://stopboxusa.com/PDB10 #stopboxpod Acre Gold: Start building physical gold with simple monthly payments and enter to win two Ancient Collection gold bars at https://GetAcreGold.com/PDB  Goldbelly: Make Mother's Day unforgettable with iconic foods delivered—get free shipping and 20% off your first order at https://GOLDBELLY.com with code PDB. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Fresh off raising a monster $15B, Marc Andreessen has lived through multiple computing platform shifts firsthand, from Mosaic and Netscape to cofounding A16z. In this episode, Marc joins swyx and Alessio in a16z's legendary Sand Hill Road office to argue that AI is not just another hype cycle, but the payoff of an “80-year overnight success”: from neural nets and expert systems to transformers, reasoning models, coding, agents, and recursive self-improvement. He lays out why he thinks this moment is different, why AI is finally escaping the old boom-bust pattern, and why the real bottleneck may be less about models than about the messy institutions, incentives, and social systems that struggle to absorb technological change.This episode was a dream come true for us, and many thanks to Erik Torenberg for the assist in setting this up. Full episode on YouTube!We discuss:* Marc's long view on AI: from the 1980s AI boom and expert systems to AlexNet, transformers, and why he sees today's moment as the culmination of decades of compounding technical progress* Why “this time is different”: the jump from LLMs to reasoning, coding, agents, and recursive self-improvement, and why Marc thinks these breakthroughs make AI real in a way prior cycles were not* AI winters vs. “80-year overnight success”: why the field repeatedly swings between utopianism and doom, and why Marc thinks the underlying researchers were mostly right even when the timelines were wrong* Scaling laws, Moore's Law, and what to build: why he believes AI scaling laws will continue, why the outside world is messier than lab purists assume, and how startups can still create durable value on top of rapidly improving models* The dot-com crash and AI infrastructure risk: Marc's comparison between today's AI capex boom and the fiber/data-center overbuild of 2000, plus why he thinks this cycle is different because the buyers are huge cash-rich incumbents and demand is already here* Why old NVIDIA chips may be getting more valuable: the pace of software progress, chronic capacity shortages, and the idea that even current models are “sandbagged” by supply constraints* Open source, edge inference, and the chip bottleneck: why Marc thinks local models, Apple Silicon, privacy, trust, and economics all point toward a major role for edge AI* American vs. Chinese open source AI: DeepSeek as a “gift to the world,” why open models matter not just because they're free but because they teach the world how things work, and how open source strategies may shift as the market consolidates* Why Pi and OpenClaw matter so much: Marc's claim that the combination of LLM + shell + filesystem + markdown + cron loop is one of the biggest software architecture breakthroughs in decades* Agents as the new “Unix”: how agent state living in files allows portability across models and runtimes, and why self-modifying agents that can extend themselves may redefine what software even is* The future of coding and programming languages: why Marc thinks software becomes abundant, why bots may translate freely across languages, and why “programming language” itself may stop being a salient concept* Browsers, protocols, and human readability: lessons from Mosaic and the web, why text protocols and “view source” mattered, and how similar principles may shape AI-native systems* Real-world OpenClaw use: health dashboards, sleep monitoring, smart homes, rewriting firmware on robot dogs, and why the most aggressive users are discovering both the power and danger of agents first* Proof of human vs. proof of bot: why Marc thinks the internet's bot problem is now unsolvable via detection alone, and why biometric + cryptographic proof of human becomes necessaryTimestamps* 00:00 Marc on AI's “80-Year Overnight Success”* 00:01 A Quick Message From swyx* 01:44 Inside a16z With Marc Andreessen* 02:13 The Truth About a16z's AI Pivot* 03:29 Why This AI Boom Is Not Like 2016* 06:33 Marc on AI Winters, Hype Cycles, and What's Different Now* 10:09 Reasoning, Coding, Agents, and the New AI Breakthroughs* 12:13 What Founders Should Build as Models Keep Improving* 16:33 AI Capex, GPU Shortages, and the Dot-Com Crash Analogy* 24:54 Open Source AI, Edge Inference, and Why It Matters* 33:03 Why OpenClaw and PI Could Change Software Forever* 41:37 Agents, the End of Interfaces, and Software for Bots* 46:47 Do Programming Languages Even Have a Future?* 54:19 AI Agents Need Money: Payments, Crypto, and Stablecoins* 56:59 Proof of Human, Internet Bots, and the Drone Problem* 01:06:12 AI, Management, and the Return of Founder-Led Companies* 01:12:23 Why the Real Economy May Resist AI Longer Than Expected* 01:15:53 Closing ThoughtsTranscriptMarc: Something about AI that causes the people in the field, I would say, to become both excessively utopian and excessively apocalyptic. Having said that, I think what's actually happened is an enormous amount of technical progress that built up over time. And like for, for example, we now know that neural network is the correct architecture.And I, I will tell you like there was a 60 year run where that was like a, you know, or even 70 years where that was controversial. And so, so the way I think about what's happening is basically, I think, I think about basically the, the, the period we're in right now is it's, I call it 80 year overnight success, right?Which is like, it's an overnight success ‘cause it's like bam, you know, chat GPT hits and then, and then oh one hits, and then, you know, open claw hits and like, you know, these are open, these are, these are like overnight, like radical, overnight transformative successes, but they're drawing on an 80 year sort of wellspring backlog, you know, of, of, of, of ideas and thinking it's not just that it's all brand new, it's that it's an unlock of all of these decades of like very serious, hardcore research.If I were 18, like this is a hundred, this is what I would be spending all of my time on. This is like such an incredible conceptual breakthrough.swyx: Before we get into today's episode, I just have a small message for listeners. Thank you. We will not be able to bring you the ai, engineering, science, and entertainment contents that you so clearly want if you didn't choose to also click in and tune into our content.We've been approached by sponsors on an almost daily basis, but fortunately enough of you actually subscribed to us to keep all this sustainable without ads, and we wanna keep it that way. But I just have one favor to ask all of you. The single, most powerful, completely free thing you can do is to click that subscribe button.It's the only thing I'll ever ask of you, and it means absolutely everything to me and my team that works so hard to bring the in space to you each and every week. If you do it, I promise you will never stop working to make the show even better. Now, let's get into it.Alessio: Hey everyone, welcome to the Lidian Space Pockets. This is CIO, founder Kernel Labs, and I'm joined by s Swix, editor of Lidian Space.swyx: Hello. And we're in a 16 Z with a, uh, mark G and welcome.Marc: Yes, yes. A and what, half of 16? Something like that. A one. Exactly,swyx: exactly. Uh, apparently this is the, the final few days in your, your current office.You're moving across the road.Marc: Uh, we're, yeah. We have a, we have some, we have some projects underway, but yeah, this is actually, oh, this is the original. We're in actually the original office. We're in the, we're in the, we're, we're in the whole thing.swyx: It's beautiful. Yeah. Great.Marc: Thank you.swyx: So I have to come out, uh, this is a, you know, I wanted to pick a spicy start in October, 2022.I just made friends with Roone and, uh, I wanted to give him something to sort of be spicy about. And I said, uh. Uh, it'll never not be funny. The A 16 Z was constantly going. The future is where the smart people choose to spend their time and then going deep into crypto and not in ai. And that was in October 22nd, 2022.And Ruen says there was an internal meeting in a 16 Z to reorient around Gen ai. Obviously you have, but was there a meeting? What, what was that?Marc: I mean, I don't, look, I've been doing AI since the late eighties.swyx: Yeah.Marc: So I, I don't know, like all that, as far as I'm concerned, this stuff is all Johnny cum lately.Yeah. You, I mean, look, we've been doing ar entire existence. I mean, we've been doing AI machine learning deep, you know, deeply. We've been doing this stuff way from the beginning. Obviously a AI is just core to computer science. I, I, I actually view them as like quite, uh, quite continuous. Um, you know, Ben and I both have computer science degrees.Um, you know, we, we both, Ben, Ben and I actually both are world enough to remember the actual AI boom in the 1980s. Yeah. There was like a, there was a big AI boom at the time. Um, and there was a, was names like expert systems. Um, and they of like lisp and lisp machines. Uh, I, I coded in lisp. I was coding a lisp in 1989.When that was the, the language of the AI future. Um, yeah. So this is something that we're like completely, you completely comfortable with. I've been doing the whole time and are very enthusiastic aboutswyx: is there a strong, like this time is different because, uh, my closest analog was 20 16 17. It was an AI boom.Mm-hmm. And it petered out very, very quickly. Um, we, it just, it just in terms of investingMarc: sort of, sort of,swyx: yeah. Investment, investment excitement.Marc: Although that's really when the, the, the Nvidia phenomenon really, it was, I would say it was in that period when it was very clear that at, at the time it, the vocabulary was more machine learning, but it, it was very clear at that time that machine learning was hitting some sort of takeoff point.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: Well, and as you guys, you guys have talked about this at length on, on your thing, but, you know, if you really track what happened, I think the real story is, it was, it was the Alex net, uh, basically breakthrough in like 2013. That was the, that was the real knee in the curve. Um, and then it was obviously the transformer breakthrough in 17.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: Um, and then everything that followed. But, but, you know, look, machine learning, you know, there were, you know, look, uh, I mean look, I've been working, you know, I've been working with, uh, one of my, you know, kind of projects working with Facebook since 2004. Um, and on the board since 2007, and of course, you know, they, they started using machine learning very early, um, and, you know, have used it basically, you know, for like 20 years for, you know, content, you know, feed optimization and advertising optimization.And obviously many, you know, financial services. You know, many, many, many companies, many different sectors have been doing this. And so it's like one of these things, it's like, it's not a, it's not a single thing. Like it's, it's like, it's like layers, right? Yeah. Um, and, and the layers arrive at different paces and, but they kind of build up.swyx: Yeah.Marc: Uh, they kind of build up over time and then, and then, yeah. And then look, in retrospect, it was 2017 was kind of the, you know, the key, the key point with the trans transformer and then. And then as you guys know, there was this really weird like four year period where it's like the, the transformer existed and then it was just like,swyx: let's go.Yeah.Marc: Well, but, but it was just, but, but between 2020, but between 2017 and 2021, I mean, that was the era of which like companies like Google had internal chat Botts, but they weren't letting anybody use them.swyx: Yeah.Marc: Right. And then, you know, and then OpenAI developed Chat GT or GPT two, and then they told everybody, this is way too dangerous to deploy.Right. Yeah. You know, we can't possibly let normal people, normal people use this thing. And then you, you guys, I'm sure remember AI Dungeon, um mm-hmm. So the o for, there was like a year where like the only way for a normal person to use GP T three was in, in AI dungeon.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: And so you, you, we would do this, you'd go in there and you'd pretend to play Dungeons and Dragons.In reality, you're just trying to talk to talk to GPT. And so there was this, you know, there was this long, you know, and I, you know, the big, big companies, you know, big companies are cautious and, you know, the big companies were cautious. It, it, by the way, it took open ai. You know, they, they, they talk about this, it took open AI time to actually adjust, you know, kind of re redirect their researchswyx: path.I, I think, uh, let say Rosewood, right? Uh, the, the dinner that founded OpenAI was right there.Marc: Right, right. But that, that dinner would've taken place in 20swyx: 18Marc: 19. The formation of OpenAI Uhhuh as late as 2018.swyx: Uh, uh, sorry. Uh, no, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm wrong. Probably It should be 20. Yeah. They just celebrated a 10 year anniversary, so it it is 2025.Yeah, so, so 2015?Marc: Yeah. 2015. Yeah. 2015. But then, uh, um, Alec Radford did G PT one in what, probablyswyx: mm-hmm. 17, 18,Marc: yeah. 17, 18. So it, yeah. For, and then, and then they didn't really, and then GPT three was what? 2020? 2020.swyx: 2020.Marc: Because that became copilot immediately. Even open ai, which has been, you know, the leader of, of this thing in the last decade, you know, e even they had to adapt and, and, and lean into the new thing.And so. Um, yeah, I, I think it's just this process of basically sort of wave after wave layer after layer, you know, building on itself. And then you kind of get these catalytic moments where, where the whole thing pops and, and obviously that's what's happening now.swyx: Is it useful to think about will there be any ai, winter?‘cause there's always these patterns. Like, is this, in the summer is something I constantly think about because do I get, do I just like. Just get endlessly hyped and just trust that I will only be early and never wrong or right. Well, are we, will there be a winter?Marc: So there's something about, say the following.There's something about AI that has led to this repeated pattern. Um, and, and, and you guys know this,swyx: it's summer, winter, summer,Marc: winter, summer, winter, summer, winter. And it goes back 80 years. Yeah. 80 years. Uh, so the original neural network paper was 1943. Right. Which is, which is amazing. Uh, that it was, it was far back that long.And then there was you, if you guys have ever talked about this on your show, but there was this, uh, there was a big, uh, there was an a GI conference at Dartmouth University in 1950. 55. 55, yeah. And they got a NSF grant to, uh, for the, all the AI experts at the time to spend the summer together. And they figured if they had 10 weeks together, they could get a GI, uh, at the other end.And they got their, by the way, they got the grant, they got the 10 weeks and then, you know, 1955, you know. No, no. A GI. And like I said, I, I lived through the eighties version of this where there was a big, a big boom and a crash. And so, so there is this thing, and there, there is something about AI that causes the people in the field, I would say, to become both excessively utopian and excessively apocalyptic.Um, and, and it's probably on both sides of like the, the, the boom bus cycle. You, you kind of see that play out. Having said that, I think what's actually happened is like just, and you know, and we now know in retrospect like an enormous amount of technical progress that built up over time. And like for, for example, we now know that neural network is the correct architecture.And I, I will tell you like there was a 60 year run where that was like a, you know, or even 70 years or that was controversial. And, and we now know that that's the case. And so we, we now, you know, everything we're building on today just sort of derives from the original idea in 1943. And so, so in retrospect, we, we now know that like, these, these guys are right.They, they, you know, they would get the timing wrong and they thought, you know, capabilities would arrive faster, or they were, it could be turned into businesses sooner or whatever, but like, they were fundamentally, the, the scientists who worked on this over the course of decades were fundamentally correct about what they were doing.And, and the, and the payoff from, from, from all their work is happening now. And so, so the way I think about what's happening is basically, I think, I think about basically the, the, the period we're in right now is it's, I call it 80 year overnight success, right? Which is like, it's an overnight success.‘cause it's like bam, you know, chat, GPT hits and then, and then oh one hits, and then, you know, open claw hits and like, you know, these are open, these are, these are like overnight, like radical, overnight transformative successes, but they're drawing on an 80 year sort of wellspring backlog, you know, of, of, of, of ideas and thinking it's not just that it's all brand new, it's that it's an unlock of all of these decades of like very serious, hardcore research.Um, and thinking, and look, there were AI researchers who spent their entire lives. They got their PhD. They, they worked for, they've researched for 40 years. They retired in a lot of cases, they passed away and they never actually saw it work.swyx: Yeah. It's all sad.Marc: It is. It is sad. It's sad. Knewswyx: Jeff Hinton was like the last guy.Marc: Yeah. Yeah. Well, there were the guys, uh, was a guy, Alan Newell. I mean, there's tons of John McCarthy. You know, John McCarthy was like one of the inventors in the field. He's one of the guys who organized the Dartmouth Conference and you know, he taught at Stanford for 40 years. Wow. And passed, you know, passed away, I don't know, whatever, 10, 10 years ago or something.Never, never actually go. Got to see it happen. But like, it is amazing in retrospect, like, these guys were incredibly smart and they worked really hard and they were correct. So anyway, so then it's like, okay, you know, say history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. It's like, okay, does that mean that there's gonna be another, like, you know, basically boom buzz cycle.And I, I will tell you, like, let, like in a sense, like yes, everything goes through cycles and, you know, people get overly enthusiastic and overly depressed and there's, there's a time, there's a timelessness to that. Having said that, there's just no question. Um, so the form, the foremost dangerous words in investing this time are, this time is different.Do you know the 12 most dangerous words investing? No. The four most d foremost dangerous words in investing are this time is different. Yeah. Um, the 12 most dangerous words. And so like, I'll tell you what's different. Like now it's working like, like there's just no, I mean, look, there's just no question.And by the way, I, I'll just give you guys my take. Like L LLMs, like from, from basically the Chad G PT moment through to spring of 25. I think you could still, I think well intention, well, and of. Form skeptics could still say, oh, this is just pattern completion. And oh, these things don't really understand what they're doing.And you know, the hall hallucination rates are way too high. And, you know, this is gonna be great for creative writing and creating, you know, Shakespeare and so sonnets and, you know, as, as rap lyrics or whatever, like, it's gonna be great and all that stuff, but we're not gonna be able to harness this to make this relevant in, you know, coding or in medicine or in law or in, you know, you know, kind of feels that, you know, kind of really, really matter.And I think basically it was the reasoning breakthrough. It, it was oh one and then R one that basically answered that question basically said, oh no, we're gonna be able to actually turn this into something that's gonna work in the real world. And, and then obviously the coding breakthrough over the, over basically the coding breakthrough that kind of catalyzed over the holiday break was kind of the third step in that.Mm-hmm. Where you're just like, alright, if, if, you know, if Linus Tova is saying that the AI coding is no better than he is like. Like, that's, that's never happened before. That's theswyx: benchmark.Marc: Yeah. That's never happened before. And so now we know that it's, it's gonna sweep through coding and, and then, and then we, we know, you know, we know that if it's gonna work in coding, it's gonna work in everything else.Right. It's just then, because that's, that's like, that's like, that's like the hardest in many ways. That's the hardest example. And how everything else is gonna be a, a derivative of that. And then on top of that, we just got the agent breakthrough, you know, with Open Claw, which is fantastic. Which is amazing and incredibly powerful.And then we just got the, the, um, the auto research, uh, you know, the, the self-improvement. You know, we're now into the self-improvement breakthrough. And so the, so the way I think about it is we've had four fundamental breakthroughs in functionality, l OMS reasoning, uh, agents, um, and then, uh, and, and then now RSI, um, and, and they're all actually working.Um, and so I'm, I'm just, as you like, you can tell I'm jumping outta my shoes. Like, like this is, like this is it like this, this is the culmination of 80 years worth of worth of work, and this is the time it's becoming real.Alessio: Yeah.Marc: I, I'm completely convinced.Alessio: I think the anxiety that people feel is like during the transistor era, yet Mors law, and it's like, all right, we understand why these things are getting better.We understand the physics of it. Yeah. With ai, it's. It's so jagged in like the jumps where like, like you said, it's like in three months you have like this huge jump like, and people are like, well this can keep happening. Right? But then it keeps happening,Marc: it'll keep happening.Alessio: And so like how do you think about also timelines of like what's we're building?I think we always have this question with guests, which is like, you know, should you spend time building harness for a model versus like the next model just gonna do it one shot in the lead space. Right. And how does that inform, like how you think about the shape of the technology? You know, you talk about how it's a new computing platform.If you have a computing platform, then like every six months it like drastically changes in what it looks like. It's hard to build companies on top of it.Marc: Yeah. So, so a couple things. So one is like, look, the, the Moore's law was what we now call a scaling law. Like Moore's Law was a scaling law and for your younger viewers, more Moore's Law was every chip chip chips either get twice as powerful or twice as cheap every, every 18 months.And that, and that and that, you know, that it's gotten more complicated in the last few years. But like that, that was like the 50 year trajectory of, of, of the computer industry. And then, and then by the way, and that's what took the mainframe computer from a $25 million current dollar thing into, you know, the phone in your pocket being, you know, a million times more powerful than that.Like that, you know, for, for 500 bucks. And so that, that was a scaling law. And then, and then, and then key to any scaling law, including Moore's Law and the AI scaling laws is, you know, they're not really laws, right? They're, they're, they're, they're predictions, but when they work, they become self-fulfilling predictions because they, they, they, they, they set a benchmark and, and then the entire industry, right?All the smart people in the industry kind of work to make sure that, that, that actually happens. And so they, they kind of motivate the breakthroughs that are required to, to keep that going. And, and in and in chips, that was a 50 year, that was a 50 year run. Right. And it, it was amazing. And it's still happening in, in some areas of, of chips.I think the same thing is happening with the, the core scaling laws. The core scaling laws. In, in, in ai, you know, they're, they're not really laws, but like they, they are basically. There are predictions and then they're motivating catalysts for the research work that is required to be. And, and, and, and by the way, also the investment, uh, dollars, um, uh, you know, required to basically keep, you know, keep the curves going and, and look, it, it is, it's gonna be complicated and it's gonna be variable and they're, you know, there're gonna be walls that are gonna look like they're fast approaching, and then they're gonna be, you know, engineers are gonna get to work and they're gonna figure out a way to punch through the walls.And obviously that's, you know, that's been happening a lot, you know, and then look, there's gonna be times when it looks like the walls have, you know, the, the, the laws have petered out and then they're gonna, they're gonna pick up again and surge and then, and then, and then it, it appears what's happening to the eyes is there's not multiple, you know, multiple scaling laws.Um, there's multiple areas of improvement. And, and I think, you know, I don't know how many more there are already yet to be discovered, but there are probably some more that we don't know about yet. You know, they, like, for example, there's probably some scaling law around, um, world models and robotics that we don't fully understand, you know, kind of acquisition of data at scale in the real world that we don't fully understand yet.So that, that, that one will probably kick in at some point here. There's a bunch of really smart people working on that. Um, and so, yeah, I, I think the expectation is that, that, you know, the, the scaling laws generally are gonna continue. Yeah. The, the pace of improvement will continue to move really fast.Um. To your question on like what to build. So, uh, I'm a complete believer the scaling laws are gonna continue. I'm a complete believer the capabilities are gonna keep getting amazing, um, you know, leaps and bounds. Uh, the part where I kind of part ways a little bit with how, what I would describe as the AI purists, um, you know, which is, which I would characterize as like the people who are.In many ways, the smartest people in the field, but also the people who spend their entire life, like at a lab, um, and have, have, I would say, have very little experience in the outside world. Um, the, the, the nuance I would offer is the outside world of 8 billion people and institutions and governments and companies and economic systems and social systems is really complicated.Um, and, um, and doesn't, you know, it it 8 billion people making collective decisions on planet Earth is not a simple process of like, just like you see this happening now. It's like a bunch of AI CEOs have this thing, which is just like, well, there's just this, they just all have this kind of thing when they talk in public where they're just like, well, there's these, these obvious set of things that so society to do.Alessio: Mm-hmm.Marc: And then they're like, society's not doing any of those things. Right. And it's like, how can society not, you know, what, whatever their theory is, how can society not see x, y, Z? Mm-hmm. And the answer is, well, society is number one. There's no single society, it's like 8 billion people. And they like all have a voice, and they all have a vote, like at the end of the day of how they, they react to change.And then, you know, it just like, it's just human reality is just really complicated and messy. Um, and, and, and so the specific answer to your question is like, as usual, it depends. Um, you know, it, it depends. Look, pe there's no question people are gonna, like, there's no question they're gonna be companies.It's already happening. There are companies that think that they're building value on top of the models and then they're just gonna get blissed by the, by the next model. There's no question that's happening. But I think there's no question also that just the process of adaptation of any technology into the real and into the real messy world of humanity is, is just going to be messy and complicated.It's, it's not going to be simple and straightforward. It's gonna be messy and complicated. And there are gonna be a lot of companies and a lot of products, um, uh, and in, in fact entire industries that are gonna get built to, to, to basically actually help all of this technology actually reach real people.Alessio: The amount of capital going into these companies, I mean, Dario talked about it on the Door Cash podcast and Door Cash was like, why don't you just buy 10 x more GPUs? And he is like, because I'm gonna go bankrupt if the model doesn't exactly hit the, the performance level. How do you think about that?Also as a risk on, you know, you guys are investors, open AI and thinking machines and world apps. It seems like we're leveraging the scaling loss at a pretty high rate, right? Like how comfortable, I guess, do you feel with the downside scenario, like, and say like things Peter out, you think you can kind of like restructure uh, these build outs and uh, you know, capital investments.Marc: Yeah. So should start by saying, so I live through the.com crash, um, and I can tell you stories for hours about the.com crash and it was horrible. No, it was awful. It was, it was, it was apocalyptic by the way. The, a lot of the.com crash was actually at the time, it was actually a telecom crash. It was a bandwidth crash.Like the, the thing that actually crashed, that wiped out all the money with the tele, the telecom companies.swyx: GlobalMarc: crossing. Global, global, yeah.swyx: I'm from Singapore and they, they laid so much cable o over over our oceans.Marc: Actually there was a scaling law in the.com. Era. And it was literally the, the US Commerce Department put out a report in 1996 and they said internet traffic was doubling every quarter.Um, and, and actually in 1995 and 1996, internet traffic actually did double every quarter. And so that became the scaling law. And so what all these telecom entrepreneurs did was they went out and they raised money to build fiber, anticipating that the demand for bandwidth is gonna keep doubling every quarter.Doubling every quarter though is like, you know, grains of chess and the chessboard, like at some point the numbers become extremely large. Right. And, and, and it really, and really what happened was the internet. The internet by the way, continuously kept growing basically since inception. And it's, you know, it's, it's continuously grown.It's never shrunk. And it's grown really fast compared to anything else. Mm-hmm. You know, in, in, in human history. But it wasn't doubling every quarter as of 19 98, 19 99. And so there was this gap in the expectation of what they thought was a scaling law versus reality. And that's actually what caused the.com crash, which was the, it they, they way over companies like global crossing way overbuilt fiber, which is sort of the, and by the way, fiber, telecom equipment, you know, so all the, all the networking gear, you know, and then, and then by the way, the actual physical data centers, like that was the beginning of the, of the, of the data center build and then, and the data center overbuild.And so you had that, but it was, it was literally, I think it was like $2 trillion got wiped out, right? It was like Jesus, it was like a big, it was. And by the way, the other, the other subtlety in it was the internet companies themselves never really had any debt. ‘cause tech, tech companies generally don't run on debt, but the telecom companies run on debt.Physical infrastructure companies run on debt. And so the companies like Global Crossing not just raise a lot of equity, they also raise a lot of debt. So they're highly levered. And so then you just do the thing. It's just like, okay, you have a highly levered thing where you're, you're just over, you're overbuilding capacity.Demand is growing, but not as fast as you hoped. And then boom, bankrupt. Right. And, and then it, and then it's like they say about the hotel industry, which is, it's always the third owner of a hotel that makes money. It has to go bankrupt twice, right? You have to wash out all of the over optimistic exuberance before it gets to actually a stable state.And then it makes money. So by the way, all of those data centers and all of those, all the fiber that they're in use, it's all in use today. Yeah. But 25 years later. But it, it, it took, and actually the elapsed time was, it took 15 years. It took 15 years from 2000 to 2015 to actually fill, fill up all that capacity.The cautionary warning is the, the overbuild can happen. Um, and, and, and, and, you know, you, you get into this thing where basically everybody, everybody who basically has any sort of institutional capital, it's like, wow. It's just, I, I don't know how to invest in these crazy software things. For sure I can put build data centers and for sure I can buy GPUs that I can deploy, you know, compute grids and, and all these things.Um, and so, you know, if you're a pessimist, you could look at this and you could say, wow, this is like really set up to be able to basically replicate, you know, what we went through, what we went through in 2000. Obviously that would be bad. The counter argument, which is the one I I agree with, which is the counter on, on the other side is a couple things.One is the companies that are investing all the, the companies that are investing the money are like the bluest chip of companies. And so back, back, back in the, in the do, like Global Crossing was like a, it was like an entrepreneur. It was like a, a new venture, but like the money that's being deployed now at scale is Microsoft, and, you know, and Amazon and Google, Facebook and Facebook and Nvidia and, you know, these, these, these, and, and now you know, by the way, open ai philanthropic, which are now at like, you know, really serious size, um, you know, as companies with, you know, very serious revenue.These are very large scale companies with like, lots, lots of cash, lots of debt capacity that they've, they've never used. And so th this is institutional in a way that, that really wasn't at the time. And then the other is, at least for now, every dollar that's being put into anything that results in a running GPU is being turned into revenue right away.Like so, and you guys know this, like everybody's starved for capacity, everybody's starved for compute capacity and then, you know, all the associated things, memory and, and, and interconnected and everything else. Um, data center space. And so e every dollar right now that's being put into the ground is turning into revenue.And, and it, and in fact, I actually think there's an interesting thing happening, which is because everybody starve for capacity, the models that we actually have that we can use today are inferior versions of what we would have if not for the supply constraints. That's true. Um, if Right pose a hypothetical universe in which GPUs were 10 times cheaper and 10 times more plentiful mm-hmm.The models would be much better. ‘cause you would just allocate a lot more money to training and you'd just build better models and they would be better. Um, and so we're, we're actually getting the sandbag version of the technology.swyx: Yeah. No. Everything we use is quantized because the, the labs have to keep the, the full versions,Marc: right?swyx: LikeMarc: we're not even getting the good stuff.swyx: Yeah.Marc: But, but getting the good stuff, it's, it's just, even if technical progress stops. Once there's like a much bigger build of like GPU manufacturing capacity and memory, you know, all, all the things that have to happen in the course of the next five or 10 years.Once it happens, even the current technology is gonna get, gonna get much better. And then as you know, like there's just like a million ways to use this stuff. Like there's just like a million use cases for this. Mm-hmm. Like, it, it, you know, this isn't just sending packets across a, a thing, whatever, and hoping that people find something to do with it.This is just like, oh, we apply intelligence into every domain of human activity. And then it works like incredibly well. Yeah. Um. Here's what I know, here's what I know. Um, in the next three or four year, it's like somewhere between three or four years out, basically everything is selling out. So like the, the entire supply chain is, is, is, is sold out or, or, or selling out.And so there, there's no, like, we're just gonna have like chronic supply shortage for, you know, for years to come. Um, there's going to be a response from the market that's gonna result in an enormous, you know, it's happening now. An enormous flood of investment in a new fab capacity and ev you know, every, everything else to be able to do that, at some point the supply chain constraints will unlock, you know, at least to some degree that will be another accelerant to industry growth when that happens.‘cause the products will get better and everything will get cheaper. Um, and so, so I know that's gonna happen. I know that, you know, the deployments, you know, the, the actual use cases are like really compelling. And then, like I said, you know, with reasoning and agents and so forth, like, I know they're just gonna get like much, much better from here.And so I, I, I know the capabilities are like really real and serious. I also know that the technical progress is not going to stop. It. It, it is excel. It is, is accelerating. Like the, the breakthroughs are are tremendous. I mean, even just month over month, the breakthroughs are really dramatic. And so, you know, I think if you were a cynic and there, there are cynics, you can look at 2000, you can find echoes.But I can't even imagine betting it that this is gonna like somehow disappoint and, you know, at least for years to come, I think it would be essentially suicidal to make that bet. Yeah. Um, it was that Michael Burry, uh, uh, that'sswyx: anMarc: interesting guy, huh? We'll pick on a guy. We'll pick, let's pick on one guy.We'll pick. Well ‘cause he did, he he came out with, it was, it was the, heswyx: doesn't mind.Marc: It was the Nvidia short. Right. He came with the Nvidia short. And then if you guys probably talked about this, which is the, the analysis now that like the current models are getting better faster at such a rate that if you are running an Nvidia, if you're running an Nvidia inference chip today, that's three years old, you're making more money on it today than you did three years ago because the pace of improvement of the software is, is faster than the, the, the depreciation cycle, the chip.And then my understanding is Google is running. I don't if they've, I don't know exactly what, uh, these are rumors that I've heard or maybe it's public, but, um, I think Google's running very old TPUs, very profitably. Ference. Yeah. And very profit and very profitably. Yeah. Um, and so, so it actually turns out, as far as I can tell, it's actually the opposite of the Beery thesis is actually.He was actually 180 degrees wrong. It's actually the, the, the, the old Nvidia chips are getting more valuable, which is something that's like literally never happened before. Like it's never been the case that you have an older model chip that becomes more valuable, not less valuable. And that, and again, that's an expression of the just ferocious pace of software progress.Ferocious pace of capability payoff. Yeah. Uh, that you're getting on the other side of this. And so I just, the idea of betting against that, like.swyx: Yeah. Yeah. Well, one ofMarc: my, it seems like an invitation to get your face ripped up.swyx: One of my early hits was like modeling the lifespan of the H 100 and h two hundreds and, and going like, you know, usually they advise like four to seven years and it was, you know, maybe you sort of realistically haircut cut it down to two to three.Yeah. But actually it's going up and not down. Yeah. And, and uh, that's, I mean that's, I think that's the dream. Uh, we are finding utilization and I think utilization solves all problems. Like, you can, you can find use, use cases for even like the poor, like even memory, we're having a shortage. Right. And, and even like the, the shittier versions of, of memory that we do have, we are finding use cases for it.So like That's great.Marc: Yeah.Alessio: How, how important is open source AI and kinda like edge inference in a world in which you have three years of supply crunch. Like, do you think in the, like, you know, if you fast forward like five years, like how do you think about inference, uh, in the data center versus at the edge?Marc: Well, so just to start, yeah. So I think, I think open source is very important for a bunch of reasons. I think edge, edge inference is very important for a bunch of reasons. I, I think just practically speaking, if we're just gonna have fundamental construc, supply crunches for the next, I mean, you, you guys know if you just project forward demand over the next three years, right?Yeah. Relative to supply, one of the, its main predictions you can do is what's gonna, what, what's gonna happen to the cost of, of inference in the core, uh, over the next three years? And like, it may rise dramatically, right? Like, so, so what is, and then is, is, you know, like the, the, the big model competition are subsidizing heavily right now.Right? Right. And so, so what's the, what will be the average person's, you know, per day, per month token cost, you know, three years from now to do all the things that they want to do. And I, I don't know, it's gonna. I mean, I have, you guys probably have friends, I have friends today who are paying a thousand dollars a day for open claw, for claw tokens to run open claw.Right? And so, okay. $30,000 a month. Right? And, and by the way, those, those friends have like a thousand more ideas of the things that they want their claw to do, right? Yeah. And so you, you could imagine there, there's like latent demand of up to, I don't know, five or $10,000 a day of, of, of tokens for a fully deployed, you know, per personal agent.Uh, and obviously consumers can't pay that, right? And so, so, but it gives you a sense of the fu of the fu of the future scope of demand, right? And so, so even, even if there's a 10 x improvement in price performance, that still, you know, goes to a hundred dollars a day, which is still way beyond what people can pay.Mm-hmm. So there's just gonna be like. Ferocious to me, by the way. The agent thing, the other interesting thing is I think the agent thing, so up until now, a lot of the constraints of GGPU constraints, I think the agent thing now also translates into CPU constraints. Mm-hmm. Right?swyx: CPU memory.Marc: Yes. CPU memory, right?And so, like the entire chip ecosystem is just gonna get wait,swyx: wait for network constraints, that that will be the killer.Marc: It's all bottleneck potentially for years. And so, so I, I think that Brad, and, and I think it's actually possible, I mean, generally inference costs are gonna keep coming down, but I think the, let's put it this way, the rate of decline, I think may level out here for a bit because of these supply constraints.And then at some point, maybe the lab stops subsidizing so much and that, that, that again, will be, be an issue. And so there's just gonna be so much more demand for inference than, than can be satisfied. Um, you know, kind of with the centralized model. And then, and then, you know, you guys know this, but like all the, just the dramatic, I mean just the dramatic innovations that have happened in the Apple silicon to be able to do, uh, inferences, it's quite amazing the level of effort being put.Like the open source guys are putting incredible effort into getting, you know, this recurring pattern where the big model will never run on a pc, and then six months later mm-hmm. Oh, it runs in a pc, right? It's like amazing. And there's very smart people working on that. So there's all that. And then look, there's also, you know.There's also like other, there's other motivators. There's other motivators which is just like, okay, how much trust are the big centralized model providers? You know, how much trust are they building in the market versus, you know, how much are, you know, at least for, in certain cases with some people, for certain use cases, people being like, well, I'm not willing to just like, turn everything over.So there, there, there's all the trust issues. Um, by the way, there's also just like straight up price optimization. There's many uses of AI where you don't need Einstein in the cloud. You just need like a, a a, a smart local model. There's also performance issues where you want, you know, you want, you know, you're gonna want your doorknob to have an AI model in it.Right. You know, to be able to, you know, do, um, you know, to be able to do access control. Um, obviously like everything with a chip is gonna have an AI model in it. Mm-hmm. And it, a lot of those are gonna be local. Um, and so, yeah. No, like I think, I think you're gonna have ti and then you're gonna, by the way, also wearable devices, you know, you don't wanna do a complete round trip.You want, you know, you, whatever your smart devices are, you want it to be like super low latency. Yeah.swyx: The question, do we care who makes it? Yeah. One of the biggest news this week was the collapse of AI two, the Allen Institute. Mm-hmm. One of the actual American open source model labs. Yeah. Um, and, uh, I'm not that optimistic on, on American open source.Yeah. Like you, you guys invested in MIS trial and MIS trial's doing extremely well outside of China. That's about it.Marc: Yeah. We'll see. We'll see. I look, I, number one, I do think we care. Uh, I do think we, I do think we care who makes it. Um, I would say this, the, the, the, the previous presidential administration wanted to kill it in the us Oh yeah.They wanted to drown in the bathtub. Um, and so they wanted to kill it. So at least we have a government now that actually like, actually wants it wants it to happen. And youswyx: earned to councilMarc: and Yeah. And the new and the P pcast. Yeah. So the, the, you know, this admin for whatever other political issues people have, which are many, you know, this administration has, I think a very enlightened view and in particular an enlightened view on AI and in particular on open source ai.Uh, and so they're very supportive. Um, my read is the Chi. The Chinese have a very, the various Chinese companies have a very specific reason to do open source, which is, they, they, they don't fundamentally, they don't think they can sell commercial, uh, AI outside of China right now. And or at least specifically not, not in the US for a combination of reasons.And so they, they kind of view, I think, open source AI as a bit of a loss leader against basically domestic, uh, you know, paid, paid services. And then kind of an, you know, kind of an ancillary products. You know, they're, they're very excited about it, by the way. I think it's great. I think it's great that they're doing it.Um, you know, I think Deeps seek was like a gift to the world. Um, I think. The great thing about open source, open source, the, the, the impact of open source is felt two ways. One is you, you get the software for free, but the other is you get to learn how it works, right? And so like the paper, the paper, the paper and, and the code, right?And the code. And so, like, for example, I thought this was amazing. So open comes out with L one and it's an amazing technical breakthrough, and it's just like, absolutely fantastic. But of course they don't explain how it works in detail. And then of course they hide the, they hide the reasoning traces, right?And, and then, and then, and then everybody's like, okay, this is great, but like, who's gonna be able to replicate this? Are other people gonna be able to do this? You know, is their secret sauce in there? And then our one comes out and it's just like, there's the code and there's the paper, and now the whole world knows how to do it.And then, you know, three months later, every other AI model is, is adding reasoning. And so, so you get this kind of double, like even if the Chinese models themselves are not the models that get used, the education that's taken place to the rest of the world, the information diffusion, you know, is incredibly powerful.So that happens and then, I don't know. We'll, we'll see. You know, there are a bunch of American, you know, open source, you know, ai, uh, model companies. I mean, look, there's gonna be tremendous, you know, there already is. There's, you know, there's gonna be tre there's tremendous competition, uh, among the primary model companies.You know, there's, depending on how you count, there's like four or five, you know, big co model companies now that are, you know, kind of neck and neck, uh, in different ways. Um, uh, you know, and, and, and, um, you know, and then obviously Bo Bo both X and then MetAware involved are, you know, both have huge, you know, huge attempts to, you know, kind of, to kind of leapfrog underway.And then you've got, you know, a whole fleet of startups, new companies, including a whole bunch that we're backing, that are, you know, trying to come out with different approaches. And then you've got whatever it is. I don't know how, how many, how many, like main line foundation model companies are there in China at this point?It's probably six. It'sswyx: five Tigers is what they call it. Yeah. Uh, Quinn is in questionable because there's change in leadership,Marc: right?swyx: Yeah.Marc: But that, does that include, that includes like Moonshot,swyx: yes. Can deep seek, uh, uh, ZI, um, Quinn oh one is in there.Marc: Right. And then, um, and by dance and, and then you see,swyx: ance would be like the next tier ance.They weren't as prominent. They weren't, didn't haveMarc: a leading. Yeah. But they, you at least, you know, ance is very inspiring and presumably they have more stuff coming and Tencent probably has more stuff coming and, and so forth. And so, so, so like, look, here, here would be a thing you can anticipate, which is there are not these markets, there are not going to be between the US and China right now, there's like a dozen primary foundation model companies that are like at scale, at, at some level of a critical mass.It's not gonna be a dozen in three years, right? Like, it just because these industries don't bear a dozen, it's, it's gonna be three or you know, there's gonna be three or four big winners or maybe one or two big winners. And so there's gonna be like a whole bunch of those guys that are gonna have to figure out alternate strategies.Um, and I think like open source is one of those strategies. And so I, I think you could see like a whole, i, I, I think the questions like, who's gonna do open source? I think that could change really fast. I, I think that, that, that's a very dynamic thing. I think it's very hard to predict what happens. And, and I think it's very important.swyx: NVIDIA's doing a lot.Marc: Well, I was gonna say. Well, exactly. And then you're got Nvidia and then, and then, you know, just to, again, indu, there's an old thing in business strategy, which is called, uh, commoditize Compliments. Commoditize the compliment. That's right. And so if your Jensen is just kind of obvious, of course, you wanna commoditize the software.Yeah. And he's, and to his enormous credit, he's putting enormous resources behind that. And so maybe it, maybe it's literally Nvidia and I think that would be great.Alessio: Yeah. Uh, narrative violation to European projects, uh, in the, uh, damn.swyx: I'm hosting my, uh, Europe, uh, conference soon. And I got both of them.Alessio: They got us.They got us. MarkMarc: finished. They got us, us. Well, wait a minute. Where was Peter? So where was Steinberger when he did? In AustriaAlessio: was, yeah, yeah, yeah.Marc: He was in what? He was in Vienna. Oh, he was in Vienna. And then where is he now?swyx: Uh, he's moving to sf.Marc: Okay. Okay. Alright. Okay, there we go. And then, yeah, the PI guy, right?The PI guys are European.swyx: Yeah, they're also, they're buddies inAlessio: Australia. Mario's also there. Yeah.Marc: Right. And are they, yeah, they haven't announced yet. Any sort of change changed or have theyAlessio: No, they're, they have a company there.Marc: Okay. Got, okay. Good.Alessio: Good, good,good.Alessio: Um,Marc: yeah, good.swyx: Anyways, I think pie and open cloud very important software things and, and I just wanted you to just go off on what you think.Marc: Yeah. So I think in co the, the combination of the two of them I think is one of the 10 most important softwares. Openswyx: Claw got all the attention, but Right. Talk about pie,Marc: pi pie's, kind of the Yeah. PI's, PI's kind of the architectural breakthrough for those of us who are older. There was this whole thing that was very important in the world of software basically from like 1970 to, I don't know, it still is very important, but like 19, from 1973 to like basically the creation of Linux, which is basically this, this thing used to call like the Unix mindset.Like so, so, ‘cause there were all these different, you know, theories. There are all these different operating systems and mainframes and, and then you know, all these windows and Mac and all these things. And then there was this, but kind of behind it all was this idea of kind of the Unix mindset. And the Unix mindset was this thing where basically you don't have these, like, like in the old days, like, like the operating system that like made the computer industry really work, like in the 1960s mm-hmm.Was this thing called o os 360, which was this big operating system that IBM developed that was supposed to basically run everything. And it was this like giant monolithic architecture in the sky. It was like a, you know, it was like a giant castle. Um, of software. And, and by the way, it worked really well and they were very successful with it.But like, it was this huge castle in the sky, but it was this thing, it was almost unapproachable, which is like, you had to be kind of inside IBM or very close to IBM. And you had to really understand every aspect, how the system worked. And then the, the Unix sky is originally out of at and t and then out out of Berkeley, um, you know, came out and they said, no, let's have a completely different architecture.And the way architecture's gonna work is we're gonna have, we're gonna have a, a prompt and, and a, and a shell. And then, and then we're gonna, all, all the functionality is gonna be in the form of these discreet modules, and then you're gonna be able to chain the modules together. Mm-hmm. Yeah. And so like the, the, the op, it's almost like the operating, operating system itself is gonna be a programming language.Um, and then that led led to the, the, the sort of centrality of the shell. Um, and then that led to sort of, uh, you know, basically chaining together Unix tools. And then that led to the emergence of these, these scripting languages like Pearl, where you, you could basically kind of very easily do this, and then the shells got more sophisticated and then, and then, and then look like, you know, that, that, that number one, that worked and that, that was the world I grew up in.Like I was, I was a Unix guy. You know, sort of from, call it 1988 to, you know, kind of all, all the way through my work and it worked really well. It, it's in the background, um, you know, nor normal people don't need to, didn't need to necessarily know about it, but like, if you were doing like system architecture, application development, you, you, you knew all about it.Um, and then, you know, it's been in the background ever since. And, you know, look, your Mac still has a Unix shell, you know, kind of in there, and your iPhone still has a Unix shell kind of buried in there somewhere. So they're kind of in there. And then, you know, the Windows shell is kind of a, you know, sort of a weird derivative of that.But, um, you know, but look, the inter, the internet runs on Unix, um, and that smartphones, actually, both iOS and Android are Unix derivatives. And so, you know, kind of Unix did end up winning. But, but anyway, and then we just started taking that for granted. And then, and then so, so basically the, the way I think about what happened with Pie and then with Open Claw is basically what those guys figured out is, I always say the, the great breakthroughs are obvious in retrospect, right?Which is the best kind, the best kind. They weren't obvious at the time or somebody else would've done them already. Um, and so there is a, like a real conceptual leap, but then you look at it sort of the backwards looking and you're just like, oh, of course. Mm-hmm. Like the, the, to me those are always the best breakthroughs.Well, actually language models themselves are like that. It's just like, oh, next token completion. Oh, of course.swyx: Yeah. What other objective mattered?Marc: Yeah, exactly. But, but like it, right. But she's even saying it wasn't obvious until somebody actually did it. Right. And so the conceptual breakthrough is real and deep and powerful and, and very important.And so the way I think about pie and olaw is it's basically marrying the, the language model mindset to the un to the Unix, basically shell prompt mindset. And so it's, it's basically this idea that what, what, so what is an agent, right? And as, as, and as you know, like many smart people who have been trying to figure out what an agent is for, for, for decades, and they've had many architectures to build agents and the whole thing.And it turns out what is an agent. So it turns out what we now know is an agent is the following. It's, so it's a language model. And then above that, it's a ba, it's a bash shell. Um, so it's a, it's a Unix shell, and then it's, and then the agent has access, uh, has access to, to the shell. And, you know, hopeful, hopefully in a sandbox, maybe in, maybe in a sandbox.So it's, it's the model. Um, it's the shell. Um, and then it's a fi, it's a file system. Um, and then the state is stored in files. And then, you know, there's the markdown format for the, you know, for, for the files themselves. And then, and then there's basically what in Unix is called Aron job. There's a loop and then there's a heartbeat for the, there's heartbeat and, and the thing basically Wake Wakes up.Wakes up. So it's basically LLM plus shell, plus file system, plus markdown, plus kron. And it turns out that's an agent. And, and, and every part of that, other than the model is something that we already completely know and understand. And in fact, it turns out that like the latent power of the Unix shell is like extraordinary because basically like all, like, there's just like an, there's just enormous latent power in the shell.There's enormous numbers of Unix commands, there's enormous number of command line interfaces into all kinds of things already in the, you know, your entire, I mean your entire, just to start with, your computer runs on a shell. If you're running a Mac or a, or, or a phone, your computer, your computer's running on a shell, uh, already.And so like the full power of your computer is available at the command line level. Um, and then it turns out it's really easy to expose other functions as a command line interface. And so like this whole idea where we need like MCP and these like product mm-hmm. Fancy protocols, whatever, it's like, no, we don't, we just need like a command, command line thing.So that's the architecture. And then it turns out what is your agent? Your agent has a bunch of files starting a file system. And then there's the thing that just like completely blew my mind when I write my head around it as a result of this, which is like, okay. This means your agent is now actually independent of the model that it's running on.Because you can actually swap out a different LLM underneath your agent and your, your agent will change personality somewhat. ‘cause the model is different, but all of the state stored in the files will be retained.swyx: Yeah. Different instruction set, but you just compiledit.Marc: Right, exactly. And it's all right.It's like right. Swapping out a ship and recompiling, but it's, it's still, it's still your agent with all of its memories. Um, and with all of its capabilities. And then by the way, you can also swap out the shell, uh, so you can move it to a different execution environment that is also, is also a b shell, by the way, you can also switch out the file system, right.Uh, and you can, and you can, and you can swap out the, the, the heartbeat for the, the crown framework, the, the loop that the agent framework itself. And so your agent basically is ba basically at the end of the day, it's just. It's just, its files. Um, and then, and then there's of course it a openswyx: call.Marc: Yeah, it's, it's basically, it's, it's just the files.Um, and then by the way, as a consequence of that, the agent and then the agent itself, it turns out a couple important things. So one is it, it's, it, it can migrate itself, right? And so you're, you can instruct your agent, migrate yourself to a different, uh, runtime environment, migrate yourself to a different file system, migrate yourself to a different, you know, swap out the language model.Your agent will do all that stuff for you. And then there's the final thing, which is just amazing, which is the agent is the agent actually has full introspection. It actually, it actually knows about its own files and it could rewrite its own files. Right. Which by the way, is basically no widely deployed software system in history where the, the, the thing that you're using actually has full introspective knowledge of how it itself works and is able to modify itself.Like that, that, I mean, there have been toy systems that have had that, but there, there's never been a widely deployed system that has that capability and then that leads you to the capability. That just like completely blew my mind when I wrap my head around it, which is you can tell the agent to add new functions and features to itself and it can do that.Extend yourself. Yeah. Right? Extend, extend yourself. Like extend yourself. Give yourself a new capability. Right? And so, and so literally it's just like you run into somebody at a party and they're like, oh, I have my open claw, do whatever, connect to my eat, sleep bed, and it gives me better advice and sleep.And you go home at night and you tell your claw, or if they're at the party, by the way, you tell your claw, oh, add this capability to yourself. And your claw will say, oh, okay, no problem. And it'll go out on the internet and it'll figure out whatever it needs and then it'll go out to claw code or whatever.It'll write whatever it needs. And then the next thing you know, it has this new capability. And so you don't even have to, like, you can have it upgrade itself without even having to, without having to do anything other than tell it that you want it to do that. And so anyway, so the, the combination of all this is just, I mean, this is just like a massive, incredible, I mean, it's just incredible.Like if I, if I were, if I were 18, like this is a hundred, this is what I would be spending all of my time on. This is like such an incredible conceptual breakthrough. Yeah. And again, pe people are gonna look at it and they already get this response. People are gonna look at it and they're gonna say, oh, well, where's the breakthrough?‘cause these, the, all of these components were already known before. Mm-hmm. But, but this is the key, the key to the breakthrough was by using all these components that were known before, you get all of the underlying capability of that's buried in there. And so all, and so for example, computer use all of a sudden just kind of falls, trivi, trivial.Of course it's gonna be able to use your computer. It has full access to the shell. Right. And then, and then you just, you, you give it access to a browser, and then you've got the computer and the browser and, and often away it goes. And, and then you've got all the abilities of the browser also. Um, yeah.And so, and so the capability unlock here is profound. My friends who are, you know, deepest into this, are having their claw do like a, like, literally like a thousand things in their lives. They have new ideas every day. They're just like constantly throwing new challenges at the thing. And by the way, it's early and, you know, these are, you know, these are prototypes and there are, you know, as you guys know, there's security issues.Yeah. And, and so, you know, there's a bunch of stuff to be ironed out, but the, the unlock of capability is just incredible.swyx: Yeah.Marc: And I, I have absolutely no doubt that everybody in the world is gonna, is gonna have at least, you know, an agent like this, if not an entire family of agents. And w

Payvand Naimi, a member of the Bahá'í faith, has been held in custody since January following his arrest during the protest. His cousin, Sama Sabet spoke to our reporter Edel McCallister.

As detectives begin investigating the murder of Gary Farris, his wife Melody makes a disturbing statement: she fears one of their children may be responsible. Investigators uncover a family powered by resentment, mistrust, and financial disputes. Melody says Gary was planning changes to the way money was handled before he was killed. Was that enough to give someone a motive for murder? Enjoying this series? The next episode, Blood Is Thicker: The Farris Wheel, is available now wherever you get your podcasts. With 48 Hours+, you can listen to this and other limited series from 48 Hours early and ad-free. Visit 48hourspodcasts.com to start your free trial. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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* Two for Two This week Fred Williams and Doug McBurney welcome back Dr. Pete Moore and Clifford Denton, PhD, who help us understand why it's time to rethink Einstein's illogical axioms in favor of absolute truth.   * Two Ways: Dr. Denton answers more questions about measuring the speed of light (with help from his paper: "The Passage of Light in the Universe - Absolute or Relative Motion", (published in Volume 37 of the Journal of Creation), and notes that a journal reader proved that Michelson Morely would have produced the same result measuring the direction of a diagonal beam of light as it did the right angle, suggesting relativity is an illusion of measurement, and not time itself.   * A $10,000.00 Constant: You could be the one to pick up $10K... and quite possibly a Nobel Prize! RSR and Dr. Moore are offering a prize of $10,000.00 to the first person to submit an acceptable technical derivation of the Gravitational Constant "G" based on the Natural Physics and Structure of the Simhony/EPOLA Model of the Space Vacuum. (Pre-register this prize right here) * The Real Tesla: Dr. Moore reminds us that Nikola Tesla warned that “Today's scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments and they wander off through equation after equation and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality.”    * Closing the "Barnes" Door: Thomas Barnes said in his book Space Medium, "The abandonment of the concept of a medium in space is perhaps the greatest mistake of physics in [the 20th] century."   * The Petr Beckman Principle: Dr. Beckmann made clear in his book Einstein Plus Two that he found the theory of Special Relativity unsatisfactory, and that conviction never left him. * The Half or the Full Lorentz? Dr. Moore explains how Dr. Denton's work may fit with the EPOLA aether.   * Aether Or: Is the Aether Simhony's? or Barnes'? Or something else? "Either" way it's time to conduct the experiments to find out!   * Einstein's Absolute Predicament: Pick up a copy of Francis Pym's and Clifford's books "Absolute Space & Time" and Einstein's Predicament and check their models and their math for yourself!   * In The Beginning: Pre-order the 9th edition of Walt Brown's amazing, enlightening, biblically sound book explaining why Earth (and the solar system) look the way they do!   * Sponsor a Show! Go to our store, buy some biblically oriented science material and sponsor a show!  

* Two for Two This week Fred Williams and Doug McBurney welcome back Dr. Pete Moore and Clifford Denton, PhD, who help us understand why it's time to rethink Einstein's illogical axioms in favor of absolute truth.   * Two Ways: Dr. Denton answers more questions about measuring the speed of light (with help from his paper: "The Passage of Light in the Universe - Absolute or Relative Motion", (published in Volume 37 of the Journal of Creation), and notes that a journal reader proved that Michelson Morely would have produced the same result measuring the direction of a diagonal beam of light as it did the right angle, suggesting relativity is an illusion of measurement, and not time itself.   * A $10,000.00 Constant: You could be the one to pick up $10K... and quite possibly a Nobel Prize! RSR and Dr. Moore are offering a prize of $10,000.00 to the first person to submit an acceptable technical derivation of the Gravitational Constant "G" based on the Natural Physics and Structure of the Simhony/EPOLA Model of the Space Vacuum. (Pre-register this prize right here) * The Real Tesla: Dr. Moore reminds us that Nikola Tesla warned that “Today's scientists have substituted mathematics for experiments and they wander off through equation after equation and eventually build a structure which has no relation to reality.”    * Closing the "Barnes" Door: Thomas Barnes said in his book Space Medium, "The abandonment of the concept of a medium in space is perhaps the greatest mistake of physics in [the 20th] century."   * The Petr Beckman Principle: Dr. Beckmann made clear in his book Einstein Plus Two that he found the theory of Special Relativity unsatisfactory, and that conviction never left him. * The Half or the Full Lorentz? Dr. Moore explains how Dr. Denton's work may fit with the EPOLA aether.   * Aether Or: Is the Aether Simhony's? or Barnes'? Or something else? "Either" way it's time to conduct the experiments to find out!   * Einstein's Absolute Predicament: Pick up a copy of Francis Pym's and Clifford's books "Absolute Space & Time" and Einstein's Predicament and check their models and their math for yourself!   * In The Beginning: Pre-order the 9th edition of Walt Brown's amazing, enlightening, biblically sound book explaining why Earth (and the solar system) look the way they do!   * Sponsor a Show! Go to our store, buy some biblically oriented science material and sponsor a show!  

Click here to send us a topic idea or question for Weekend Wisdom.Raising kids impacted by adoption, foster care, or kinship care can do a number on your marriage or life partnership. Join us for a conversation with Jeremy & Jara Walden, authors of The Heart Work of Foster Care: A Hopeful and Honest Guide to Foster Parenting, about strategies to re-prioritize and strengthen your most significant relationship.In this episode, we discuss:How can raising kids together enhance a marriage or relationship? Why are kids in our community often harder to parent?Trauma, loss, neglectPrenatal substance exposureChallenging behaviors that come from those experiencesWhy and how might our kids' needs test our adult relationships?What are some of the additional stressors our relationships may face when fostering or adopting kids who've been exposed to trauma?  What are some challenging behaviors kids who've experienced trauma can bring that might be particularly difficult for the marriage?What are some signs that we may be neglecting or at least not maintaining our significant relationship?How does your history impact your marriage, while raising kids with trauma impacts?Can you offer specific strategies for “going back,” healing, or re-prioritizing our marriages or partnerships if we are listening to this and realize we haven't done so?How do single parents prioritize the adult relationships that they value?Support the showPlease leave us a rating or review.  This podcast is produced by www.CreatingaFamily.org. We are a national non-profit with the mission to strengthen and inspire adoptive, foster & kinship parents and the professionals who support them.Creating a Family brings you the following trauma-informed, expert-based content:Weekly podcastsWeekly articles/blog postsResource pages on all aspects of family building

United States v. Aguayo-Montes, No. 24-4072 (10th Cir. Mar. 17, 2026)Padilla; ineffective assistance of counsel; affirmative misadvice; duty to inform of near certain removal; prima facie prejudice; insufficiency of plea warnings; affidavits;  Matter of Arevalo-Vargas, 29 I&N Dec. 519 (BIA 2026)qualifying relative child ageing out during appeal; exceptional and extremely unusual hardship; children forced to pay for schooling Matter of Z-R-C-N-, 29 I&N Dec. 523 (BIA 2026)ineffective assistance of counsel against non-attorney; prima facie; domestic violence, family group, and asylum nexus; social distinction; approved SIJ; reopening Hodzic v. Bondi, No. 24-1204 (1st Cir. Mar. 19, 2026)sua sponte reopening; Niz Chavez; fundamental change in law; exceptional situation different from exceptional circumstances; BIA failure to explain; Loper Bright inapplicable; procedural due process; substantive due process right to remain with family Hassan v. Bondi, No. 25-1049 (7th Cir. Mar. 16, 2026)receipt of stolen property aggravated felony; Kentucky mens rea; constructive knowledge; ostrich defense; K.R.S. §§ 514.110, 506.010; certified questionKurzban Kurzban Tetzeli and Pratt P.A.Immigration, serious injury, and business lawyers serving clients in Florida, California, and all over the world for over 40 years.eimmigration"Immigration law software you'll love to use."get.eimmigration.com/IRP Gonzales & Gonzales Immigration BondsP: (833) 409-9200immigrationbond.com  EB-5 Support"EB-5 Support is an ongoing mentorship and resource platform created specifically for immigration attorneys."Contact: info@eb-5support.comWebsite: https://eb-5support.com/Stafi"Remote staffing solutions for businesses of all sizes"Click me!The Pen and SwordClick me!Discount code: ImmigrationReview26 Want to become a patron?Click here to check out our Patreon Page!CONTACT INFORMATION:Email: kgregg@kktplaw.comFacebook: @immigrationreviewInstagram: @immigrationreviewTwitter: @immreviewAbout your hostCase notesRecent criminal-immigration article (p.18)Featured in San Diego VoyagerSupport the show

* Two Doctors: Back to Back! This week Fred Williams and Doug McBurney welcome back Dr. Pete Moore, who helped us rethink relativity last summer and, for the first time Clifford Denton, PhD, who began his career as a pilot in the Royal Air Force, studied mathematics at the University of Cambridge, taught mathematics and computer studies, engaged in government funded research and was awarded a PhD at Oxford. Dr. Denton has been in Christian ministry for over 40 years in support of the Bible and home schools in regard to God's creation.   * Einstein's Fuzzy Maths: This time Dr. Denton takes on Einstein's special Relativity by examining the factors Einstein set aside, and the assumptions he insisted upon in light of observational evidence.   * One Way: Dr. Denton takes us further through his analysis of the speed of light from his paper: "The Passage of Light in the Universe - Absolute or Relative Motion", (published in Volume 37 of the Journal of Creation). Find out how the setting aside of relatively simple equations by Einstein and everybody who accepts time dilation and length contraction points to a largely spiritual deception.   * Einstein's Absolute Predicament: Pick up a copy of Francis Pym's and Clifford's books "Absolute Space & Time" and Einstein's Predicament and check their models and their math for yourself!   * Dilation & Contraction: Hear how willful ignorance and spiritual deception gave birth to modern science's irrational, counterintuitive dogma that time, movement, (and eventually just about anything you like) are all relative.    * In The Beginning: Pre-order the 9th edition of Walt Brown's amazing, enlightening, biblically sound book explaining why Earth, (and the solar system) look the way they do!   * Sponsor a Show! Go to our store, buy some biblically oriented science material and sponsor a show!

On episode 737 of the 40+ Fitness podcast, Coach Allan sits down with physical therapist and author Eileen Kopsaftis to unpack the powerful insights from her book, Aging Culprits: 12 Myths That Sabotage Your Future and Steal Your Joy. Together, they challenge common assumptions about aging, exploring how many so-called age-related declines are actually rooted in lifestyle choices, not inevitable fate. Coach Allan and Eilene dig deep into the myths that often steal our joy as we get older and highlight practical strategies to take control of your health, strength, and independence, no matter your age. If you're ready to scrub away the nonsense, embrace evidence-based self-care, and ensure your best years are ahead, this conversation is for you. Time Stamps: 00:00 Aging Myths Debunked 05:37 Defying Aging Expectations 07:22 Superstition vs. Truth Belief 10:17 No Medications in Medicine Chest 13:36 Risk Reduction: Real vs Relative 17:42 Age and the Power of Play 21:58 Real Estate and Downsizing Stories 23:17 Addressing Mobility Challenges at Home 29:00 Surround Yourself With Support 30:19 Progress Over Perfection https://lifelongwellbeing.com  

Ben Criddle talks BYU sports every weekday from 2 to 6 pm.Today's Host: Ben Criddle (@criddlebenjamin) and Co-Host: (ronthe3manweav)Subscribe to the Cougar Sports with Ben Criddle podcast:Apple Podcasts: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/cougar-sports-with-ben-criddle/id99676

Joseph Sternberg reports that Kevin Warsh aims to reduce the Federal Reserve's $2.9 trillion in bank reserves, sparking a debate over the central bank's size relative to the economy. 5.1890 PERSIA

A South African family decided that a death certificate was simply not dramatic enough proof of death, so they upgraded their documentation strategy significantly.*No AI Voices Are Used In The Narration Of This Podcast*PRINT VERSION: https://weirddarkness.com/dead-serious-body-evidenceWeirdDarkness® is a registered trademark. Copyright ©2026, Weird Darkness.#WeirdDarkness, #WeirdDarkNEWS

Feeding choices carry an enormous emotional weight for new parents, often shaped more by online narratives and cultural pressure than by balanced evidence. In this conversation, we unpack formula guilt, breastfeeding myths, and how distorted risk messaging fuels shame. We talk about how understanding research in context can help parents move away from fear-based thinking and toward informed, values-based decisions that support both parent and baby. The episode also explores the long-term impact of early feeding shame on maternal confidence. Feeding is often the first major parenting decision, and how a parent navigates it sets the tone for future choices. We focus on strengthening self-trust, rejecting stigma, and recognizing that child outcomes are driven by complex environmental and social factors, not a single feeding method. What we discussed: Why parents feel guilt around formula feeding How online activism shapes feeding narratives Evaluating whether sources of information are trustworthy Misleading statistics and risk exaggeration Relative risk vs absolute risk in infant illness The psychological harm of formula shaming Why stress can worsen milk supply struggles Breastfeeding benefits in realistic context Why breastfed babies still get sick The role of environment and exposure to germs Myths about allergies, IQ, and milestone differences How child development is multifactorial Socioeconomic factors in feeding research Sibling comparison studies and feeding outcomes Why shame damages maternal bonding Strengthening decision confidence early in parenting Owning feeding choices without apology How openness reduces stigma for other parents Modeling self-trust for the parenting journey Letting go of guilt about long-term outcomes Want more? Listen to the full, original episode. Check out Mallory's new book, "Bottle Service": https://www.amazon.com/Bottle-Service-Encouragement-Guilt-Free-Successful/dp/1668088762 Our podcasts are also now on YouTube. If you prefer a video podcast with closed captioning, check us out there and ⁠subscribe to PedsDocTalk⁠. Get trusted pediatric advice, relatable parenting insights, and evidence-based tips delivered straight to your inbox—join thousands of parents who rely on the PDT newsletter to stay informed, supported, and confident. ⁠⁠⁠⁠Join the newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠! And don't forget to follow ⁠⁠⁠⁠@pedsdoctalkpodcast⁠⁠⁠⁠ on Instagram—our new space just for parents looking for real talk and real support. We love the sponsors that make this show possible! You can always find all the special deals and codes for all our current sponsors on the ⁠PedsDocTalk Podcast Sponsorships⁠ page of the website.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices