Podcasts about Federal Reserve

Central banking system of the United States

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    Best podcasts about Federal Reserve

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    Latest podcast episodes about Federal Reserve

    Marketplace All-in-One
    Inflation is still here, folks

    Marketplace All-in-One

    Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2023 28:44


    The debt limit is the big economic news story of the day, but yes, you *still need to keep an eye on inflation. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of consumer spending, ticked up last month. That’s bad news if you were hoping interest rates, the tool the Federal Reserve uses to fight inflation, might come down soon. And, some musing on the nature of consequences: Three members of the far-right militia known as the Oath Keepers were recently sentenced to prison for their part in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full/Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Sedition Sentence for Oath Keepers' Stewart Rhodes Marks Moment of Accountability” from The New York Times “Jessica Watkins: Oath Keepers member and Army veteran sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for January 6” from CNN Politics “US Inflation (PCE), Consumer Spending Pick Up in Sign of Economic Resilience” from Bloomberg “The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike” from CNN “Atlanta Fed CEO on the debt limit debacle and curbing inflation” from Marketplace “Band-Aid is the most trusted brand in the US, beating out Amazon and Visa” from Business Insider “Netflix's password-sharing crackdown is here — and it costs $7.99 per month” from The Verge “The Restaurant QR-Code Menu Is Being Shown the Door” from The New York Times “The steel sector is carbon-intensive. “Green steel” could be a game changer.” from Marketplace “Admit it — you miss socializing at the office” from Marketplace It’s the last day of our May fundraiser. Help us reach our goal and keep our newsroom running. Give now. Join us in Seattle for a special live taping of “Make Me Smart” on June 9. You can find ticket information here.

    Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly
    Inflation is still here, folks

    Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly

    Play Episode Listen Later May 27, 2023 28:44


    The debt limit is the big economic news story of the day, but yes, you *still need to keep an eye on inflation. The personal consumption expenditures price index, a measure of consumer spending, ticked up last month. That’s bad news if you were hoping interest rates, the tool the Federal Reserve uses to fight inflation, might come down soon. And, some musing on the nature of consequences: Three members of the far-right militia known as the Oath Keepers were recently sentenced to prison for their part in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Plus, we’ll play a round of Half Full/Half Empty! Here’s everything we talked about today: “Sedition Sentence for Oath Keepers' Stewart Rhodes Marks Moment of Accountability” from The New York Times “Jessica Watkins: Oath Keepers member and Army veteran sentenced to 8.5 years in prison for January 6” from CNN Politics “US Inflation (PCE), Consumer Spending Pick Up in Sign of Economic Resilience” from Bloomberg “The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike” from CNN “Atlanta Fed CEO on the debt limit debacle and curbing inflation” from Marketplace “Band-Aid is the most trusted brand in the US, beating out Amazon and Visa” from Business Insider “Netflix's password-sharing crackdown is here — and it costs $7.99 per month” from The Verge “The Restaurant QR-Code Menu Is Being Shown the Door” from The New York Times “The steel sector is carbon-intensive. “Green steel” could be a game changer.” from Marketplace “Admit it — you miss socializing at the office” from Marketplace It’s the last day of our May fundraiser. Help us reach our goal and keep our newsroom running. Give now. Join us in Seattle for a special live taping of “Make Me Smart” on June 9. You can find ticket information here.

    Thoughts on the Market
    Andrew Sheets: Unresolved Questions Create Market Uncertainty

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later May 26, 2023 3:12


    Optimistic investors have pushed stocks and bond yields to the high end of the recent range. But inflation, banks and the debt ceiling status are still raising questions that have gone unanswered.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, May 26th at 2 p.m. in London. A hot topic of conversation at the moment is that three big questions that have loitered over the market since January still look unresolved. The first of these is whether inflation is actually coming down. Surprisingly, high inflation was a dominant story last year and a major driver of the market's weakness. A number of low inflation readings in January gave a lot of hope that inflation would now start to fall rapidly, as supply chains normalized and the effect of central bank policy tightening took effect. Yet the data since then has been stubbornly mixed. Headline inflation is coming down, but core inflation, which excludes food and energy, has moderated a lot less. In the U.S., the annualized rate of core consumer price inflation over the last three, six and 12 months is all about 5%. Today's reading of Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, came in above expectations. And in both the UK and the Eurozone, core inflation has also been coming in higher than expected. We still think inflation moderates as policy tightening hits and growth slows, but the improvement here has been slow. One reason our economists think that would take quite a bit of economic weakness to push the Fed, the European Central Bank or the Bank of England, to cut rates this year. That ties nicely into the second issue. Over the last two months, there's been a lot more excitement that the Federal Reserve may now be done raising interest rates, thanks to all of the tightening they've already done and the potential effect of recent U.S. bank stress. But with still high core inflation and the lowest U.S. unemployment rate since 1968, this issue is looking much less resolved. Indeed, in just the last two weeks, markets have moved to price in an additional rate hike from the Fed over the summer. Third and more immediate is the U.S. debt ceiling. Risks around the debt ceiling have been on investors' radar since January, but as U.S. stocks have risen this month and volatility has been low, we've sensed more optimism, that a resolution here is close and that markets can move on to other things. But like inflation or Fed rate increases, the U.S. debt ceiling still looks like another key debate with a lot of questions. U.S. Treasury bills or the cost of insuring U.S. debt, have shown more stress, not less, over the last week. As of this morning, a one month U.S. Treasury bill is yielding over 6%. Optimism that inflation is now falling, the Fed has done hiking and the debt ceiling will get resolved, have helped push both stocks and bond yields to the high end of the recent range. But with these issues still raising a lot of questions, we think that may be as far as they go for the time being, presenting an opportunity to rotate out of stocks and into the aggregate bond index. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

    The Grant Williams Podcast
    The Grant Williams Podcast Ep. 54 - Danielle DiMartino Booth - PREVIEW

    The Grant Williams Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 25, 2023 12:50


    Joining me on this edition of The Grant Williams Podcast is returning guest, Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, LLC in Dallas, TX. Danielle's knowledge of the inner workings of the Federal Reserve has been invaluable both to her clients and the broader financial community in recent years and her analysis of the predicament in which the Fed finds itself and the fast-disappearing options at their disposal to extricate themselves has found a hungry audience. This time up, Danielle explains her latest thinking on the state of the economy, how we might be facing an abrupt economic air pocket, the political vulnerability of House Speaker McCarthy, and even the odds of the US splintering via a series of succession movements. It's compelling stuff, folks! Every episode of the Grant Williams podcast, including This Week In Doom, The End Game, The Super Terrific Happy Hour, The Narrative Game and Shifts Happen, is available to Copper, Silver and Gold Tier subscribers at my website www.Grant-Williams.com. Copper Tier subscribers get access to all podcasts, while members of the Silver Tier get both the podcasts and my monthly newsletter, Things That Make You Go Hmmm… Gold Tier subscribers have access to my new series of in-depth video conversations, About Time.

    The John Batchelor Show
    LondonCalling: The 2021-2022 failure of the Federal Reserve. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion

    The John Batchelor Show

    Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2023 14:40


    Photo: No known restrictions on publication. @Batchelorshow #LondonCalling:  The 2021-2022 failure of the Federal Reserve. @JosephSternberg @WSJOpinion https://www.wsj.com/articles/silicon-valley-banks-failure-is-a-federal-reserve-success-fed-business-transitory-management-e88b14fa

    Marketplace All-in-One
    The pandemic’s panic-neglect cycle isn’t over

    Marketplace All-in-One

    Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2023 32:07


    The federal government has lifted the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, and many Americans are eager to move on from the pandemic entirely. But, COVID-19 is unfortunately still here — and so is the threat of a future pandemic. Ed Yong, a science journalist at The Atlantic who wrote about the risk of a deadly pandemic in 2018 and later won a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on COVID-19, warns that neglecting the pandemic only leaves us unable to address the problems that led to its devastating impacts in the first place. On the show today, Yong explains how the panic-neglect cycle keeps us vulnerable to COVID-19 flare-ups and new pandemics, why social solutions are just as important as medical ones when it comes to preventing the spread of disease, and why long COVID is misunderstood. Plus, what needs to change to make the United States better prepared for the inevitable next pandemic. In the News Fix: Many retailers (including in the luxury segment) are expecting a drop in sales, and some sellers are starting to limit free return options. These could be signs that consumer spending is finally tightening after the Federal Reserve’s relentless interest rate hikes. Plus, we'll talk about the benefits of buying secondhand. Later, a listener suggests fun emojis to brighten up a conversation on Slack. And, this week's answer to the Make Me Smart question comes from Kimberly's mermaid instructor, Jen Downey. Here’s everything we talked about today: “The Pandemic’s Legacy Is Already Clear” from The Atlantic “Track Covid-19 in the U.S.: Latest Data and Maps” from The New York Times “Long COVID Is Being Erased—Again” from The Atlantic “We Need an Operation Warp Speed for Long COVID” from Scientific American “Is America Ready for a Global Pandemic?” from The Atlantic “Retailers Clamp Down on Returns” from The Wall Street Journal “America’s home improvement boom appears to be over” from CNN “Why you should buy everything used” from The Washington Post Your support is critical to helping close our budget gap. Donate before Memorial Day weekend: https://support.marketplace.org/smart-sn

    Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly
    The pandemic’s panic-neglect cycle isn’t over

    Make Me Smart with Kai and Molly

    Play Episode Listen Later May 24, 2023 32:07


    The federal government has lifted the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency, and many Americans are eager to move on from the pandemic entirely. But, COVID-19 is unfortunately still here — and so is the threat of a future pandemic. Ed Yong, a science journalist at The Atlantic who wrote about the risk of a deadly pandemic in 2018 and later won a Pulitzer Prize for his reporting on COVID-19, warns that neglecting the pandemic only leaves us unable to address the problems that led to its devastating impacts in the first place. On the show today, Yong explains how the panic-neglect cycle keeps us vulnerable to COVID-19 flare-ups and new pandemics, why social solutions are just as important as medical ones when it comes to preventing the spread of disease, and why long COVID is misunderstood. Plus, what needs to change to make the United States better prepared for the inevitable next pandemic. In the News Fix: Many retailers (including in the luxury segment) are expecting a drop in sales, and some sellers are starting to limit free return options. These could be signs that consumer spending is finally tightening after the Federal Reserve’s relentless interest rate hikes. Plus, we'll talk about the benefits of buying secondhand. Later, a listener suggests fun emojis to brighten up a conversation on Slack. And, this week's answer to the Make Me Smart question comes from Kimberly's mermaid instructor, Jen Downey. Here’s everything we talked about today: “The Pandemic’s Legacy Is Already Clear” from The Atlantic “Track Covid-19 in the U.S.: Latest Data and Maps” from The New York Times “Long COVID Is Being Erased—Again” from The Atlantic “We Need an Operation Warp Speed for Long COVID” from Scientific American “Is America Ready for a Global Pandemic?” from The Atlantic “Retailers Clamp Down on Returns” from The Wall Street Journal “America’s home improvement boom appears to be over” from CNN “Why you should buy everything used” from The Washington Post Your support is critical to helping close our budget gap. Donate before Memorial Day weekend: https://support.marketplace.org/smart-sn

    UBS On-Air
    UBS On-Air: Paul Donovan Daily Audio 'Confirmation bias'

    UBS On-Air

    Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2023 4:32


    Yesterday's central bank speak confirmed whatever you thought about central bank policy before the cacophony of comment. The ECB speakers behaved like they were on autopilot because they are (unfortunately) automatically raising rates. The Federal Reserve hawks were hawkish, the doves were dovish, and those in the middle were even handed.

    The James Altucher Show
    The History of Money - Part 1 | Omid Malekan | Ask Altucher! EP05

    The James Altucher Show

    Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2023 51:57


    Why do we use money? How did we get to the point where billions of US dollars can be created by the Federal Reserve with the click of a button for bills that are never printed and have no relation to the finite assets those dollars used to be pegged against? Are cryptocurrencies and the digital blockchain the next evolution of worldwide finance?The answer - according to Omid Malekan - is trust, and on today's episode of Ask Altucher, he and James take this conversation back thousands of years to the beginning of 'commodity money' and walk through its evolution to the present day.Omid has been studying the relationship between trust and money for decades, working as a stockbroker, lead cryptocurrency consultant for Citi Group, professor at Columbia Business School, and author of  several books, including Re-Architecting Trust: the Curse of History and the Crypto Cure for Money, Markets and Platforms as well as The Story of the Blockchain: A Beginner's Guide to the Technology That Nobody Understands.If you ever wanted to understand how and why the worldwide financial system operates, Omid explains it all in explicit yet accessible detail. Even seasoned financial professionals will take new nuggets of information away from this conversation.------------What to write and publish a book in 30 days? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/writing to join James' writing intensive!What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book Skip the Line is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltucher.com/podcast.------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe  to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsStitcheriHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on Social Media:YouTubeTwitterFacebook

    Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman
    2002: Breaking News- This is Why the "Crash Bros" are Just Wrong

    Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman

    Play Episode Listen Later May 22, 2023 35:33


    Jason hosts Rick Sharga from C.J. Patrick Company who spoke about the current state of the economy and housing market. They discussed the cause of the resilience of the housing market despite 10 consecutive massive rate hikes. Rick stated that this is due to the large cohort of young adults currently coming of age and forming households, and the fact that people like having a roof over their head. They concluded that despite the rate hikes, the housing market is doing well. Rick discussed how demographics and the Fed funds rate increase have affected the housing market. He noted that in 2021, mortgage rates had doubled in a calendar year for the first time in history, leading to a higher cost of monthly payments for home buyers. He also mentioned how 70% of homeowners have mortgage rates of 4% or lower, which means they are not in a hurry to take on a higher rate. This is keeping inventory levels low, combined with growing demand, and causing prices to remain stable. He also noted how this is frustrating those who predicted a housing market crash. Rick Sharga and Jason Hartman discuss the current foreclosure rate, which is about half of the normal rate. They state that 93% of borrowers who are in foreclosure have positive equity. Of those 270,000 borrowers in foreclosure, 100,000 of them have 20-50% equity, 60,000 have more than 50% equity, and 20,000 have more than 75% equity. They also discuss the current state of the housing market. Mortgage rates have been increasing, but they seem to be stabilizing in a band between 6.25% and 6.75%. Existing home sales, inventory levels, new home sales, and rental pricing are all up from last year. Investor activity is also up. The Fed indicated at their last meeting that rates will remain stable until June. Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:17 Crash bros are just wrong 2:57 In Nashville, inventory is super low; awesome financing offers  Rick Sharga interview Part 1 4:47 Welcome Rick Sharga, first time mortgage rates doubled in a calendar year 8:17 Foreclosure issues 11:39 Primary Mortgage Market Survey 17:40 Higher rates have crushed affordability 18:25 Purchase loan apps off 35% from prior year 20:36 Existing home sales down from February - and 22% below last year 23:07 Inventory increases in April, but new listings down significantly 23:41 New home sales improving as builders offer incentives 24:29 Inventory coming to market slowly, and selling quickly; disruptive technology & other issues 29:04 The current problems with multifamily housing 30:38 Price appreciation has declined rapidly 31:08 Most regions are still positive year over year 33:31 Most states saw prices increase in March   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

    Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger
    State of the Post-Pandemic Economy Part Two

    Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger

    Play Episode Listen Later May 21, 2023 17:32


    I once again had the pleasure of joining CBS News Correspondent Major Garrett on his podcast, The Takeout, to discuss a number of topics, such as the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the debt ceiling, and many people hitting the reset button. Have a money question? Email us here Subscribe to Jill on Money LIVE YouTube: @jillonmoney Instagram: @jillonmoney Twitter: @jillonmoney "Jill on Money" theme music is by Joel Goodman, www.joelgoodman.com. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    Motley Fool Money
    Managing Cash Amid High Inflation

    Motley Fool Money

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2023 20:39


    The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 times since 2022. But you probably wouldn't notice those hikes in a traditional savings account. Dylan Lewis caught up with Robert Brokamp to discuss: - How banks benefit from your inertia, and how that costs you - Ideas for managing cash for the next few weeks, months, and years - Money market funds paying more than 4%, and the caveats to understand before utilizing those accounts - Who can benefit from I Bonds and less-liquid savings vehicles Website mentioned: https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/ Host: Dylan Lewis Guest: Robert Brokamp Producer: Ricky Mulvey Engineer: Rick Engdahl

    Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger
    State of the Post-Pandemic Economy Part One

    Jill on Money with Jill Schlesinger

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2023 20:50


    I once again had the pleasure of joining CBS News Correspondent Major Garrett on his podcast, The Takeout, to discuss a number of topics, such as the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the debt ceiling, and many people hitting the reset button. Have a money question? Email us here Subscribe to Jill on Money LIVE YouTube: @jillonmoney Instagram: @jillonmoney Twitter: @jillonmoney "Jill on Money" theme music is by Joel Goodman, www.joelgoodman.com. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

    American Monetary Association
    446: Unmasking the World's Mysterious Bank: Tower of Basel Uncovered!

    American Monetary Association

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2023 41:46


    Greetings still from Ecuador, which is on an elevation of 12,000 feet! Today Jason talks about another bank run and how this puts massive inflationary pressure on the entire economic system. He also talks about how new home sales proves Wall Street was wrong- saying low housing inventory is “fake news” and even how the MLS' Active listings since 1982 chart confirms this! And Jason interviews Adam LeBor, author of the book “Tower of Basel.” Adam takes us on a journey to uncover the history of the Bank for International Settlements, also known as the Tower of Basel. He explores the power and influence of this mysterious institution, which is said to be the central bank of the world's central banks. Through interviews with experts and a deep dive into historical events, Adam gives us insight into the inner workings of the bank, its role in the global financial system, the complexities of the international banking system and the forces that shape it.     Key Takeaways: Jason's editorial 1:28 Greetings from an elevation of 12,000 feet! 2:22 Another bank run! and the massive inflationary pressure in the system 4:33 New home sales proving Wall Street was wrong 6:16 MLS Chart: Active listings since 1982 7:48 Demographics Exhibit 1: US population by age 9:11 Inflation Induced Debt Destruction and the 100% FREE financing opportunities 12:52 Using the Land To Improvement (LTI) ratio, Income property will keep on going strong 15:00 Keep listening to our Flashback Friday episodes and a few announcements Adam LeBor's interview 16:33 Welcome Adam LeBor 17:25 Distinguishing between the 3 big entities 18:34 Do all bankers participate 19:38 The shadowy history of this secret bank 21:35 The necessity of it's existence 23:51 Coordinating between central banks 25:52 Flooding the market with cheap money and the psychological effects on society 28:47 Strange History- Hitler's American Banker 31:49 “Money finds a way.” 33:16 The 30 year rule and their YouTube channel 34:48 The connection between the BIS and the euro 37:04 The European Union and the Euro   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

    The FRONTLINE Dispatch
    Age of Easy Money (Full-length Film Audio Track)

    The FRONTLINE Dispatch

    Play Episode Listen Later May 20, 2023 118:20


    FRONTLINE Film Audio Tracks are FRONTLINE documentaries, in audio form. Stream or download full-length recordings of film audio tracks on Apple Podcasts or our website.  Listen to the full-length audio from Age of Easy Money, FRONTLINE's recent investigation into the Federal Reserve's “easy money” policies.  Around the country and across the world, economic uncertainty continues as businesses and individuals adjust to a new reality: the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates and pulling back on its epic monetary experiment that started with the Great Financial Crisis. From the award-winning team behind The Facebook Dilemma and Amazon Empire, the two-hour documentary investigates how the Fed's policies have changed the American economy and what comes after the age of easy money.

    The Higher Standard
    Consumer Debt Hits New High, Burry Believes in Bank and JP Got Bars

    The Higher Standard

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023 76:10


    Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. According to a report from the New York Federal Reserve, the total for borrowing across all categories hit $17.05 trillion, an increase of nearly $150 billion, or 0.9% during the January-to-March period. That took total indebtedness up about $2.9 trillion from the pre-Covid period ending in 2019.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss news that famed short-seller Michael Burry and his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, snapped up 150,000 shares of First Republic prior to its purchase by JP Morgan, worth about $2 million at the end of the first quarter.Chris and Saied look at A Gallup poll indicating that 36% of US adults say they have a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence that the Federal Reserve chairman would do or recommend the right thing for the economy, a precipitous drop which is now at or below his predecessors' as the central bank wages its war against inflation.⁣They also offer some thoughts on recently-released Federal Reserve data, showing that deposits at U.S. banks climbed to $17.16 trillion in the week ended May 3, up about $67 billion, ticking up from the lowest level in nearly two years while bank lending was little changed at a record level.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why inflaton in Argentina has sped up to 109% as currency weakens before the election.The three steps to a Federal Reserve pivot.Why Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are doubling down in the banking sector.Why the FOMC needs to see inflation going down on a fast enough trend.And so much more...Resources:"With $1B in back rent due, LA landlords struggle to survive" (The RealDeal via Instagram)"Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time" (CNBC via Instagram)"Michael Burry loaded up on bank stocks during the banking crisis" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed is done raising rates, stocks to finish the year higher" (CNBC via Instagram)"Confidence in Jerome Powell has plunged to a record low" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"What happens when the prophecy of the blockchain fails?" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"U.S. bank deposits rise in early May, lending little changed at record high" (Reuters)"US real estate investors are losing money on roughly 1 in 7 homes they sell — among the worst since 2016. And they're most likely to take a hit...

    Millennial Investing - The Investor’s Podcast Network
    MI Rewind: Investing in the Metaverse and Technology Trends w/ Beth Kindig

    Millennial Investing - The Investor’s Podcast Network

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023 53:42


    Clay Finck and Beth Kindig talk all about investing in the Metaverse, some key lessons to keep in mind when investing in growth companies, and more.Beth is the lead tech analyst for the I/O Fund, which had audited returns of 1700% in just two years and beat Cathie Wood's Ark Innovation ETF in 2020. Her experience comes from a decade of analyzing tech come companies, tech products, and startups resulting in over 1100 articles and many enterprise-level analyst reports.IN THIS EPISODE, YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro01:59 - How large the Metaverse market could potentially become over the coming years.10:17 - Beth's approach to investing in the Metaverse.30:14 - The companies that Beth is most excited about in relation to the Metaverse and other technology trends.45:54 - How to think about the Federal Reserve's role as a tech investor.51:11 - Why Beth is very bullish on Bitcoin.And much, much more!*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.BOOKS AND RESOURCESGet access to the I/O Fund's free newsletter.Check out the I/O Fund's blog.Related episode: Listen to MI118: Investing in China, Emerging Industries, and Affirm Deep Dive W/ Simon Erickson, or watch the video.Related episode: Listen to MI120: Bitcoin and Financial Independence W/ Jim Crider, or watch the video.NEW TO THE SHOW?Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs.Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here.Try Robert and Rebecca's favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets.Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.P.S The Investor's Podcast Network is excited to launch a subreddit devoted to our fans in discussing financial markets, stock picks, questions for our hosts, and much more! Join our subreddit r/TheInvestorsPodcast today!SPONSORSGet a FREE audiobook from Audible.Instead of trying to time the market or pick single stocks, automate your investments and invest in a variety of companies with Betterment.What does happen when money and big feelings mix? Tune in to find out on the new podcast, Open Money, presented by Servus Credit Union.Apply for the Employee Retention Credit easily, no matter how busy you are, with Innovation Refunds.Enjoy soft, stretchy bottoms that last forever with birddogs. Use promo code INVESTING and get a free Yeti-style tumbler with every order.Partner with a specialized agency focused on making insurance as easy as possible for real estate investors. Take advantage of monthly reporting, monthly billing, and coverage for all phases of occupancy with National Real Estate Insurance Group.Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors.Connect with Beth: Website | Twitter Connect with Clay: TwitterSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

    The Pilot Money Guys
    Flight #57: Top Ten Reasons To Be Optimistic!

    The Pilot Money Guys

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023 47:55


    Questions From The Flight Deck:  What the heck is ChatGPT, and what jobs will most be impacted? What is it...? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT What jobs are at risk...? https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/which-jobs-artificial-intelligence-gptimpact/ What about ChatGPT from an investing perspective? ETFs: AIQ, BOTZ, ROBT, AIEQ – see Kwanti. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/how-smart-is-chatgpt/ AI in the Cockpit? https://theaircurrent.com/technology/natural-language-processing-aviation-atccockpit/   Optimism – It's NOT cool! Have we always been pessimistic? Or is it a new phenomenon? “The preacher man says it's the end of time and the Mississippi river, she's goin dry...the interest is up and the stock market's down and you only get mugged if you go downtown...” Great survival story...Hank Williams Jr. If Everything is Getting Better, Why Are People So Pessimistic? “...Those are three emotional biases toward pessimism. We also have cognitive biases that incline us that way, foremost among them being the “availability heuristic.” This is a feature of the psychology of probability also documented by Tversky, in collaboration with the Nobel Prize–winning economist Daniel Kahneman. Forty years ago, Kahnemanm and Tversky argued that one of the ways the human brain estimates probability is by using a simple rule of thumb: the more easily you can recall an example of something, the more likely you estimate it to be. The result is that anything that makes an incident more memorable will also make it seem more probable. The quirks of the brain's ability to retain information will bleed into our estimates of a risk's likelihood.” “...The bad‐ dominates‐ good phenomenon is multiplied by a second source of bias, sometimes called the illusion of the good old days. People always pine for a golden age. They're nostalgic about an era in which life was simpler and more predictable. The psychologist Roger Eibach has argued that this is because people confuse changes in themselves with changes in the times. As we get older, certain things inevitably happen to us. We take on more responsibilities, so we have a greater cognitive burden. We become more vigilant about threats, especially as we become parents. ...At the same time, we see our own capacities decline. As we get older, we become stupider in terms of the sheer ability to process and retain information. There's a strong tendency to misattribute these changes in ourselves to changes in the world. A number of experimental manipulations bear this out. If you have people try to make some change in their lives — say, to eat less fat — often they become convinced that there are more and more advertisements for fatty foods.”   Ten Reasons Clients Should Be Optimistic About The Future: https://www.fa-mag.com/news/ten-reasons-clients-should-be-optimistic-about-the-future-72935.html?section=68&utm_source=FA+Subscribers&utm_campaign=d580b67712-FAN_IP_Next_Chapter_Parnassus_050422_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6bebc79291-d580b67712-240228216  The US is a net oil exporter. Higher short-term interest rates. Inflation is moderating Companies are great at passing along costs. Now is the time to seek out lower cost providers/products. The Federal Reserve is not a bunch of dummies. Companies know how to cut expenses to boost profits. The stock market has been the best way to make money consistently for decades. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. Riding High...   Some Alternatives: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/how-is-the-economy-doing-right-now-inflationinterest-rate-hikes-rcna73613 Inflation cooling – 4.9% in April – announced today – 10 May 2023. The Fed doesn't have as much control as you think. And no more, QE! https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2023/05/some-things-the-fed-doesnt-control/ US households are in excellent shape, the ratio of liabilities to net wealth has declined 50% since the 2008 financial crisis, and household leverage is currently at levels last seen in the early 1980s; see chart below. If the unemployment rate rises, consumer spending will slow down, but the starting point for US households is very strong. Balance Sheets Are Barriers Against Contagion...Household, corporate and bank balance sheets are more resilient today than during past crises.   Factfullness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World—And Why Things Are Better Than You Think. https://www.amazon.com/Factfulness-Reasons-World-ThingsBetter/dp/1250123828/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= Author Hans Rosling   Quotes The first is from philosopher, historian, psychologist, William James: “Pessimism leads to weakness, optimism to power.”  The second from the late former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Army General Colin Powell: “Perpetual optimism is a force multiplier.”   Resources https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/09/bill-melinda-gatesfoundation-goalkeepers-report-poverty/671415/ https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1103776/why-optimism-is-a-secret-weapon-ininvesting https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58612#:~:text=In%20CBO%E2%80%99s%20projections%2C%20the%20U.S.%20population%20increases%20from,accounts%20for%20all%20population%20growth%20beginning%20in%202042 https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/is-inflation-good-or-bad/ https://www.reference.com/world-view/inflation-good-bad-5bcd09b085e0a85d

    The Ricochet Audio Network Superfeed
    Matters of Policy & Politics: Matters Of Policy & Politics: Eye on the Prize: John Cochrane on Monetary Policy, the Fed's Evolution, and Career Achievements | Bill Whalen and John Cochrane | Hoover Institution (#383)

    The Ricochet Audio Network Superfeed

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023


    What are we to make of the debt-ceiling drama in Washington and why is there a need for the Federal Reserve to engage in greater self-examination? John Cochrane, the Hoover Institution's Rose Marie and Jack Anderson senior fellow and a recipient of the 2023 Bradley Prize for his contributions to the study of economics, reflects […]

    Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman
    2001 FBF: Declining Marginal Utility with Bill Bonner of Bonner & Partners and Agora Financial - Author of ‘Financial Reckoning Day'

    Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023 53:28


    This week's edition of Flashback Friday is from episode 425 published last 13 October 2014. On today's Creating Wealth Show, host Jason Hartman talks to financial maven and author, Bill Bonner, about his new book, Hormegeddon, how to create money out of thin air, the situation in Japan and whether you really can have too much of a good thing. Bill's company, Agora Financial, is a leading marketplace for advice and talking points about everything to do with investing so he's perfectly placed to assist those looking to increase their investment prowess. Ahead of the interview, Jason addresses the Elon Musk announcement of semi-autonomous cars and their inevitably disruptive impact on everything – including real estate. Key Takeaways: – The title for Bill Bonner's latest book, Hormegeddon, comes from the term for specific biological experiments which went awry: hormesis. – With many of these things they can start out as beneficial but the more you use them, the more issues arise. – The notion of creating money is so difficult for even experts to understand – how can real money be created from absolutely nothing? From thin air? – The trade of the decade assessment is not a prediction; it's all about analysing what's up and what's down. – The situation that Japan is currently in is terrible, and it doesn't look to be improving in the immediate future. – Indeed, there's every possibility that the US could follow suit and end up in a similar situation to Japan, especially with ever-increasing Chinese trade agreements using Chinese currency clauses. – One potential option could be ‘direct monetary funding' which is the act of giving money, rather than lending it, in an attempt to bring the economy back up by consumer spending. – If you borrow money long-term for real estate purposes and it's on a low-rate basis, inflation can eventually come along and pay off your debt for you. – Too much of a good thing is only too much. We view security as a good thing, but consider the money the Germans were spending on their own security during the war and that just can't be justifiable. – Declining marginal utility is where you invest too much into one thing and it all backfires. – Decades ago, the huge houses used to be owned by people who made things and had a real role in society and manufacturing; now they're just owned by hedge-fund guys. – With all of the technological advances now occurring, this is an amazing time to be alive. – Agora exists as a marketplace to collect together everyone's questions and answers about investing because no one knows who's going to have the right answer. – For more information, head to www.AgoraFinancial.com or for an entertaining read, check out www.DailyReckoning.com   Tweetables We spent 200,000 developing our sentiments and our bodies as humans, but now we're so unequipped to deal with quantitative easing. Empires get to impose their currency, but over time, they lose that ability – the dollar could seriously fall.   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

    What Bitcoin Did
    Is Bitcoin Warfare? With Jason Lowery

    What Bitcoin Did

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023 150:10


    “We had irrigated land, we had army. We had goods travelling across the sea, we had navy. We had goods travelling across the air, we had air force… So what happens when civilization expands its footprint into cyberspace? How do we secure zero trust permissionless access to our data in cyberspace?”— Jason LoweryJason Lowery is a Major in the US Space Force and the author of Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin. In this interview, we discuss how he is building the case within the US Department of Defence that Bitcoin represents a new form of digital warfare that the US government needs to embrace to secure its power projection in cyberspace.- - - - Jason Lowery burst onto the Bitcoin scene in August 2021. When a senior member of the US Space Force enters the Bitcoin debate, it tends to turn heads! But, it was his novel projections of what value Bitcoin presents to society that generated interest and controversy. Bitcoiners have long espoused Bitcoin as a peaceful revolution. Jason thinks Bitcoin can be used as a tool of warfare. In Softwar, Jason's recently released book on the national strategic significance of Bitcoin, he explains the background of modern warfare, tracing its roots back to the struggle for survival in all forms of life. From single-cell organisms upwards, all of life is involved in a fight for control over resources and territory. Competition has resulted in an ecological arms race manifested through evolutionary cycles of improvements in physical power and the projection of that power.Softwar explains that humans are just another life form involved in this competition for survival. Humans, however, have become increasingly efficient at power projection techniques, from wielding fire to using nuclear weapons. Now, as we accelerate through the digital age, humans need to develop and harness new and innovative methods to maintain their advantages over adversaries. In his role within Space Force, which is developing the means to project power beyond our planet, Jason has been contemplating what other tools will be required as another arena for the competition opens up: cyberspace. Jason argues that Bitcoin has the potential to be a revolutionary cybersecurity system. Proof of Work is an innovation that moves the fight to the enemy, imposing a cost on those wishing to undertake an attack. Softwar is a call to action for the US Department of Defence to adopt Bitcoin as a tool of warfare in the new cyberspace battlefield. Whilst designed to secure money, PoW can, in theory, be used to secure other forms of data. Whether you agree with this assertion or not, Jason is making progress within the DoD in arguing Bitcoin's utility makes it too important for the Department of Treasury and Federal Reserve jurisdiction. And who would bet against the DoD in a fight! - - - - This episode's sponsors:Iris Energy - Bitcoin Mining. Done Sustainably Ledn - Financial services for Bitcoin hodlersBitcasino - The Future of Gaming is hereLedger - State of the art Bitcoin hardware walletWasabi Wallet - Privacy by defaultUnchained - Secure your bitcoin with confidence-----WBD660 - Show Notes-----If you enjoy The What Bitcoin Did Podcast you can help support the show by doing the following:Become a Patron and get access to shows early or help contributeMake a tip:Bitcoin: 3FiC6w7eb3dkcaNHMAnj39ANTAkv8Ufi2SQR Codes: BitcoinIf you do send a tip then please email me so that I can say thank youSubscribe on iTunes | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | YouTube | Deezer | TuneIn | RSS FeedLeave a review on iTunesShare the show and episodes with your friends and familySubscribe to the newsletter on my websiteFollow me on Twitter Personal | Twitter Podcast | Instagram | Medium | YouTubeIf you are interested in sponsoring the show, you can read more about that here or please feel free to drop me an email to discuss options.

    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
    Bank Execs Clash with Lawmakers at Hearing on Bank Failures

    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 19, 2023 7:04


    A Senate hearing on recent bank failures turned into a prickly confrontation between bank executives and lawmakers. Former leadership for Silicon Valley, Signature, and First Republic Banks were hammered by lawmakers about why their banks collapsed. And there wasn't a lot of agreement on the cause. Bank executives blamed the government and the media, while lawmakers blamed mismanagement and greed.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review.   Silicon Valley Bank made the biggest splash as the first bank to fall with about $210 billion in assets. Signature bank had about $110 billion when it was seized by regulators. They were the third and fourth largest banks in the U.S. so their failures raised huge concerns about the impact on the entire financial system. First Republic went south and teetered for a few months after it lost billions in deposits, and was largely taken over by JPMorgan.   SVB CEO Blamed a Series of “Unprecedented Events”   In a joint session before the Senate Banking Committee, former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker pointed a finger at the federal government, saying the bank's failure was the result of a series of “unprecedented events.” He testified that: “With near zero-percent interest rates and the largest government sponsored economic stimulus in history, more than $5 trillion in new deposits flooded into commercial banks. By the end of 2020, SBV had grown 63 percent over the prior year, and in 2021, SVB's assets grew another 83 percent to $212 billion.” (1)   He also pointed out that during the pandemic, when inflation started to become an issue, the Federal Reserve insisted that inflation was “transitory” and that interest rates would remain low.   Massive Bank Run at SVB   The bank's collapse largely happened after a decision to invest more than half of the bank's loan portfolio into fixed-income Treasury securities, when interest rates were low. They are considered “low risk” but they are also impacted by interest rate hikes. When interest rates blew up to fight inflation, the value of SVB's portfolio shrank and that forced the bank to sell at a $2 billion loss. When news spread about the bank's situation, depositors became concerned about accessing their funds and the bank experienced a massive bank run.    Media Misconceptions   Becker also blamed the media for comparing the March 8th failure of Silvergate Bank to Silicon Valley Bank. He told lawmakers that the two banks had completely different business models, and said: “Rumors and misconceptions quickly spread online, culminating on March 9th with the first-ever social media bank run leading to more than $42 billion in deposits being withdrawn from SVB in 10 hours, or $1 million every second.”   Two More Dominoes to Fall   Former Signature Bank Chairman Scott Shay was miffed that his bank was seized by New York State regulators on March 12th. He insisted that the bank would have survived that bank run. He argued: “We were at all times solvent and well-capitalized, and even with the sale of our available-for-sale securities, we still would have remained well capitalized.”   Former First Republic CEO Mike Roffler also blamed social media and news stories for inciting panic among depositors along with technology that allows for fast-paced digital withdrawals. Roffler told lawmakers: “The contagion spread very quickly and panic is very hard to control.” (2)   Lawmakers Blame Mismanagement, Greed   But lawmakers also took the conversation in a different direction, criticizing bank leaders for millions of dollars in bonuses and personal stock sales ahead of the failures. Senator Sherrod Brown ripped into Becker saying: “Workers face consequences, executives ride off into the sunset. Only in corporate boardrooms can you run your business into the ground, take the whole economy along with you and come out ahead. We can't let that happen again.”   Some lawmakers said that bank executives could have reduced the risk by hedging their portfolios, but that they, instead, placed profits ahead of safety. As explained in a Washington Post article, Silicon Valley Bank had financed short-term liabilities with long-term debt. It seemed like a no-brainer when interest rates were low, and to be fair, there was a lot of talk about interest rates remaining low for a very long time. But when the Fed started hiking rates, the value of those Treasurys went down. Lawmakers say the bank could have swapped those longer-term notes for one with shorter-terms that match the duration of the bank's liabilities. But they say the banks didn't do that because it would have been more expensive. (3)   Sharp Words from Some Senators   The session became downright nasty at times. Senator John Kenney of Louisiana had sharp words for what he called SVB's “stupidity.” He told Becker: “You made a really stupid bet that went bad, didn't ya? And the taxpayers of America had to pick up the tab for your stupidity, didn't they?” (4)   He continued saying: “No, this wasn't unprecedented. This was bone-deep, down-to-the-marrow stupid. You put all your eggs in one basket and unless you lived on the International Space Station you could see that interest rates were rising and that you weren't hedged.”   Let's hope we've seen the last of this kind of banking madness. You can read more about this by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com.    I always encourage listeners to hedge their own financial empire with real estate. You can learn how to invest in rental properties at RealWealth. Becoming a member is free and will give you access to all our educational material as well as our investor portal with valuable data on rental markets, sample properties, and help from our investment counselors who can answer your questions. Just hit the “Join for Free” button.   And please remember to subscribe to this podcast!    Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke   If you're a RealWealth member, just sign into the portal and look for DealCheck under the Resources tab. If you aren't a member, it's free and easy to sign up. And, please remember to subscribe to this podcast!   Thanks for listening! Kathy    Links:   1 - https://commercialobserver.com/2023/05/svb-signature-ceos-blame-federal-govt-media-bank-failures/   2 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/05/17/lawmaker-blasts-first-republic-chief-you-were-one-of-3-worst-run-banks-in-us/?sh=256ad3e18d07   3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/15/svb-s-fateful-mistake-could-be-lurking-in-your-401-k/0f139944-c31b-11ed-82a7-6a87555c1878_story.html 4 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

    OMEGAMAN (TM) with Shannon Ray Davis
    Episode 10211 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve - Part 1&2

    OMEGAMAN (TM) with Shannon Ray Davis

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 237:00


    Episode 10211 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve Replay of Interview by Rob Skiba with Tim Bence - Part 1 and 2  (2013)

    OMEGAMAN (TM) with Shannon Ray Davis
    Episode 10213 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve - Part 3

    OMEGAMAN (TM) with Shannon Ray Davis

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 84:00


    Episode 10213 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve Replay of Interview by Rob Skiba with Tim Bence - Part 3 (2013)

    Thoughts on the Market
    Andrew Sheets: Is Market Volatility on the Decline?

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 3:07


    Although markets remain calm for now, incoming developments across the debt ceiling, inflation and monetary policy could quite quickly turn the tide.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Thursday, May 18th at 2 p.m. in London. A notable aspect of the current market is its serenity. Over the last 30 days, U.S. stocks have seen the least day-to-day volatility since December of 2021. It's a similar story for stocks in Europe or the movement of major currencies. Across key markets, things have been calm and investors have become more relaxed, with expectations of future volatility also in decline. But why is this happening? After all, major uncertainties around the path of inflation and central bank policy still exist. And the United States, the world's largest economy and most important borrower, still hasn't reached an agreement to keep borrowing by raising the debt ceiling, raising the risk, according to the U.S. Treasury secretary, of running out of money in less than a month. Well, we think a few things are going on. With the debt ceiling, we think this is a great example that real world investors genuinely struggle with pricing a binary, uncertain outcome. It's very challenging to put precise odds on what is ultimately a political decision and hard to quantify its impact. And further complicating matters, the conventional wisdom generally appears to be that any debt ceiling deal would only get done at the last possible moment. In short, investors are struggling, making big changes to their portfolio in the face of what is little better than a political guess and are finding it easier to wait, and hoping that more clarity emerges. I'd note we saw something very similar before the near-miss on the debt ceiling in 2011. Despite being extremely aware of the deadline back then, stocks moved sideways until the last possible moment in August of 2011, afraid of leaning too heavily in one direction before the event. Other factors are also in limbo. We're nearing the end of what was a reasonably solid first quarter earnings season and don't see larger disappointments arriving, potentially, until later in the year. And on our forecasts, the Federal Reserve just made its last rate hike of the cycle and is now on hold for the remainder of 2023. And volatility does have the tendency to be self-reinforcing. Low volatility often begets low volatility, and in turn drags down expectations of what future movements will look like. But importantly, this doesn't represent some form of clairvoyance, expectations about future levels of market volatility often deviate from what actually happens, in both directions. For now, markets remain calm. But don't assume that means investors have some special insight around the debt ceiling, inflation or monetary policy. Incoming developments across all of these areas can change the picture rather quickly. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

    Hidden Forces
    Why Is the Recession Taking So Long to Show Up? | Bob Elliott

    Hidden Forces

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 60:56


    In Episode 313 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Bob Elliott, the co-founder and CEO of Unlimited, a financial services firm that uses machine learning to create products that replicate the index returns of alternative investments. Demetri asked Bob onto the podcast to help sort through the noise of this latest financial news cycle as it pertains to the debt ceiling debate, regional bank stocks, the Fed's fight against inflation, and where we find ourselves in the economic cycle. Many have been surprised by how long it's taken for an economic recession to materialize given the speed and extent of the Federal Reserve's rate rises. Demetri and Bob discuss what might explain this and what it means for investors if supply-side factors to the economy make combating inflation difficult for the Fed to do without undermining the economy's ability to supply the capital needed ameliorate it. This episode is an excellent overview of where we find ourselves today and provides an especially useful framework for thinking about the important issues facing the economy and markets over the next six months to twelve months. You can subscribe to our premium content and gain access to our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports (or Key Takeaways) at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you want to join in on the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces genius community, which includes Q&A calls with guests, access to special research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners, you can also do that on our subscriber page. If you still have questions, feel free to email info@hiddenforces.io, and Demetri or someone else from our team will get right back to you. If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following: Subscribe on Apple Podcasts | YouTube | Spotify | Stitcher | SoundCloud | CastBox | RSS Feed Write us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Subscribe to our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://hiddenforces.io Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 05/15/2023

    WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch
    Paul Gigot Interviews Vivek Ramaswamy on the Economy

    WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 30:34


    How would presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy promote faster economic growth? Would he cut taxes, how would he influence the Federal Reserve, and why hasn't he been more critical of Donald Trump and his record as President? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    Omega Man Radio with Shannon Ray Davis
    Episode 10211 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve - Rob Skiba / Tim Bence - Part 1&2

    Omega Man Radio with Shannon Ray Davis

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 236:02


    Episode 10211 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve - Rob Skiba / Tim Bence Replay of Interview by Rob Skiba with Tim Bence - Part 1 and 2 (2013)

    Omega Man Radio with Shannon Ray Davis
    Episode 10213 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve - Rob Skiba / Tim Bence - Part 3

    Omega Man Radio with Shannon Ray Davis

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 83:05


    Episode 10213 - Canaanite Altars, Giants & The Federal Reserve - Rob Skiba / Tim Bence Replay of Interview by Rob Skiba with Tim Bence - Part 3 (2013)

    Real Estate Espresso
    The Banking Crisis Revisited

    Real Estate Espresso

    Play Episode Listen Later May 18, 2023 6:06


    On today's show we are taking a look at why we are experiencing a banking crisis. There are those in the Federal Reserve and in the media who are critical of recent bank failures. Those banks were irresponsible and didn't hedge their interest rate risk properly. Silicon Valley Bank in particular received heaps of criticism for not hedging their interest rate risk. But let's step back for a moment and look at the big picture.  We have more than 10 years with interest rates being held near the zero bound. In that environment, interest rates on loans have been at historic lows. The problem is that our banks have a fractional reserve system. If every depositor comes to withdraw their funds all at once, the bank will go broke. Every bank, not just poorly managed banks, every bank will experience the same outcome regardless of size.  ----------------- Host: Victor Menasce email: podcast@victorjm.com

    Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman
    2000: Unlock The Power Of Visualization- Exploring The Role Of The Subconscious Mind

    Creating Wealth Real Estate Investing with Jason Hartman

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2023 46:24


    In Episode 2,000 of the podcast, host Jason Hartman reflects on the power of the human mind. He considers having a famous guest for the special episode but decides to focus on the most powerful asset available to everyone—the mind. He shares his fascination with the mind since his school days and the influence of mentors like Dennis Whateley, Zig Ziglar, Jim Rohn, and Earl Nightingale. Jason emphasizes the incredible things that can be achieved with the mind, including the placebo effect and psychosomatic medicine. He expresses gratitude to his listeners and vows to continue sharing valuable content for years to come. He then discusses the power of the subconscious mind and the importance of managing one's mindset. They highlight the flaw in the subconscious mind, which is its inability to differentiate between reality and vividly imagined scenarios. This flaw can be hacked and used to one's advantage by visualizing desired outcomes with sensory-specific detail. He emphasizes the significance of visualization and the ability to create one's own future through the power of the mind. He also mentions the potential applications of visualization in real estate investing and touches on the topics of worries, beliefs, and the impact of expectations on one's reality. He posits that the brain is not just a processor, but a generator, and that thinking is actually quite energy intensive. Jason encourages listeners to explore guided visualizations to create their own future and hone their investing skills.   Key Takeaways: 1:29 It's finally here! 3:09 The most amazing asset you already have 6:17 My 4 great mentors and the "Power of your Thoughts" 7:29 The internal pharmacy 9:44 For 18 years now- thank you for listening! 13:23 The power of the mind 16:28 Subconscious mind cannot tell the difference 19:13 A different state of reality 24:22 Separate podcast 29:55 The brain is a generator 35:49 Discipline our minds 40:12 Let's visualize what we want in rich detail   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

    Thoughts on the Market
    Vishy Tirupattur: The Outlook for Lending

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2023 3:40


    According to the Federal Reserve's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, small businesses may be the most vulnerable to banks tightening their lending standards.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the takeaways from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. It's Wednesday, May 17th at 10 a.m. in New York. We've talked a lot about the effects of the turmoil in the regional banks on credit formation, on this podcast. We thought the ongoing liquidity pressures in the regional banking sector may lead to tighter lending standards, which will eventually translate into lower credit formation. The Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, conducted quarterly by the Federal Reserve, provides a window on bank lending practices, including the standards and terms for banks to make loans, as well as the demand for bank loans to businesses and households. The survey results published last week, reflect conditions during the first quarter of 2023 and provide a first glimpse on the effect of the regional banking turmoil on banks outlook for lending over the remainder of 2023. The survey showed that banks expect to tighten standards across all loan categories. Banks cited an expected deterioration in the credit quality of their loan portfolios, customer collateral values, a reduction in risk tolerance, concerns about bank funding costs, banks liquidity position and deposit outflows, as reasons for expecting to tighten lending standards over the rest of 2023. While standards for commercial and industrial, the so-called C&I loans, tightened only marginally, the demand for C&I loans fell to levels not seen since the great financial crisis. Even though lending standards only tightened marginally, the tightening came from some loan officers tightening standards considerably. Further, banks reported changes to their modalities of their lending quite substantially. For example, the spread on loans or their cost of funding broke above the pandemic period and entered levels last seen during the great financial crisis. Loan officers also changed credit lines to small businesses drastically, especially regarding the size and cost. They reduced the maximum size and maturity of credit lines, as well as increased collateral requirements and the cost of credit lines. For small businesses in the U.S., such credit tightening comes at a very difficult time. Small business optimism and the outlook for business conditions already deteriorated significantly over the past year, and small businesses acknowledge that the environment isn't conducive for expansion or CapEx. Why does this matter? As small businesses have continued to lower expectations of sales, there were also moderated plans to raise prices in the near term. We see this dynamic raising the risks of downside surprises to upcoming inflation data. Also worth noting that fewer small businesses describe inflation as their number one concern, in fact, more describe interest rates as the number one concern. One of the special questions in this quarter's survey pertained to commercial real estate, so-called CRE. Banks tightened lending standards across all categories of CRE loans. Action cited included, widening loan spreads, reducing loan to value, raising debt service covers ratios and reducing maximum loan sizes. These survey results are consistent with what we had been predicting. Volatility in the regional banking sector has resulted in lower credit formation, due to both lingering liquidity stress and regulatory changes to come. The former is already playing out and the latter is likely to weigh on economic growth over the long term. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

    Money For the Rest of Us
    What Happens If The U.S. Defaults On Its Debt? Here's Why It Won't

    Money For the Rest of Us

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2023 26:54


    What are the grave consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling isn't increased and the government defaults? What would the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch do to prevent default if Congress doesn't act?Topics covered include:What are the potential impacts of a U.S. default on the stock and bond markets, and the overall economyWhat causes the U.S. to have a perennial debt ceiling crisisWhy it is uncertain when the U.S. government would run out of money to meet its obligationsWhat the Biden Administration could do to prevent a defaultWhat the Federal Reserve could do to prevent a defaultGiven the ongoing crisis, should you shift assets from stocks to cash?For more information on this episode click here.SponsorsUse code MONEY10 to get 10% off on your NAPA Autoparts online order.Masterworks – invest in contemporary artMasterworks Disclosure:“net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd Masterworks' offerings are filed with the SEC, view all past and current offerings here.Insiders Guide Email NewsletterGet our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter.Show NotesThe Debt Limit Since 2011—Congressional Research Service7 doomsday scenarios if the U.S. crashes through the debt ceiling by Jeff Stein—The Washington PostA debt ceiling default would send the U.S. housing market back into a deep freeze by Jeff Tucker—ZillowWhy is federal spending so hard to cut? — Recurring debt ceiling fights will only be solved by budget reform by Linda Bilmes—BrookingsDebt Limit Default Is Default, Even Under a “Prioritization” Scheme by Richard Kogan—Center on Budget and Policy PrioritiesWhy I Changed My Mind on the Debt Limit by Laurence H. Tribe—The New York TimesThe Trillion-Dollar Coin Might Be the Least Bad Option by Annie Lowrey—The AtlanticIf U.S. again risks default, Fed has 'loathsome' playbook by Ann Saphir—ReutersRelated Episodes169: The Debt Ceiling—What Happens If the U.S. Defaults416: Your Nation's National Debt: 5 Things You Need To KnowSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

    Reknr hosts: The MMT Podcast
    #170 Cory Doctorow: Shakedowns, Shell Games & Other Silicon Valley Shenanigans

    Reknr hosts: The MMT Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2023 62:15


    Patricia & Christian talk to acclaimed author and activist Cory Doctorow, about his new crypto heist thriller “Red Team Blues”, and the real-world money mechanics and shady shenanigans that inform the story.   Please help sustain this podcast! Patrons get early access to all episodes and patron-only episodes: https://www.patreon.com/MMTpodcast     Order “Red Team Blues” here: https://craphound.com/shop/   LIVE EVENT! Christian will be interviewing Cory Doctorow in Nottingham (UK!) on Tuesday 30th May 2023, tickets here: https://www.waterstones.com/events/an-evening-with-cory-doctorow/nottingham     All our episodes in chronological order: https://www.patreon.com/posts/43111643   Patron-only episodes: https://www.patreon.com/posts/57542767   Patron-only GIMMS Book Launch Presentations [audio]: Daniel Kostzer on Argentina's “Jefes de Hogar” Public Employment Programme: https://www.patreon.com/posts/gimms-book-on-de-82501900 Phil Armstrong On Useful Economists: https://www.patreon.com/posts/gimms-book-phil-82502071 Neil Wilson On How The Government Spends: https://www.patreon.com/posts/gimms-book-neil-82502270   Order the Gower Initiative's “Modern Monetary Theory - Key Insights, Leading Thinkers” (2023): https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/gbp/modern-monetary-theory-9781802208085.html     Relevant to this episode: All our episodes with Cory Doctorow: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41970049 Cory's podcast: https://craphound.com/podcast/ Cory's upcoming live events: https://craphound.com/category/redteamblues/ We talk a little more in-depth about crypto tokens as “proof of work” and “proof of stake” in this episode: Episode 135 - Cory Doctorow: Blockchain, Bitcoin & Selling The Brooklyn Bridge: https://www.patreon.com/posts/68946334 “The Inevitability of Trusted Third Parties” by Cory Doctorow: https://onezero.medium.com/the-inevitability-of-trusted-third-parties-a51cbcffc4e2 Cory mentions previous guest Daniel Kostzer likening capitalism to a car with no steering wheel being driven at high speed down a road - that's from this episode: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-169-job-82743393 Cory mentions the inspirational economist and teacher Dr Fadhel Kabuob - here are all our episodes with him: https://www.patreon.com/posts/43484621  Cory mentions our episode on tally sticks and the history of UK exchequer with Richard Tye. It's great! Have a listen here: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-167-tye-81601103 “Tiktok's enshittification” by Cory Doctorow: https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/21/potemkin-ai/     For an intro to MMT: Our first three episodes: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41742417 Episode 126 - Dirk Ehnts: How Banks Create Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62603318   Quick MMT reads: Warren's Mosler's MMT white paper: http://moslereconomics.com/mmt-white-paper/ Steven Hail's quick MMT explainer: https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-modern-monetary-theory-72095 Quick explanation of government debt and deficit: “Some Numbers Are Big. Let Me Help You Get Over It”: https://christreilly.com/2020/02/17/some-numbers-are-big-let-me-help-you-get-over-it/     For a short, non-technical, free ebook explaining MMT, download Warren Mosler's “7 Deadly Innocent Frauds Of Economic Policy” here: http://moslereconomics.com/wp-content/powerpoints/7DIF.pdf       Episodes on monetary operations: Episode 20 - Warren Mosler: The MMT Money Story (part 1): https://www.patreon.com/posts/28004824 Episode 126 - Dirk Ehnts: How Banks Create Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/62603318 Episode 13 - Steven Hail: Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Banking, But Were Afraid To Ask: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41790887 Episode 43 - Sam Levey: Understanding Endogenous Money: https://www.patreon.com/posts/35073683 Episode 84 - Andrew Berkeley, Richard Tye & Neil Wilson: An Accounting Model Of The UK Exchequer (Part 1): https://www.patreon.com/posts/46352183 Episode 86 - Andrew Berkeley, Richard Tye & Neil Wilson: An Accounting Model Of The UK Exchequer (Part 2): https://www.patreon.com/posts/46865929      Episodes on inflation: Episode 7: Steven Hail: Inflation, Price Shocks and Other Misunderstandings: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41780508 Episode 65 - Phil Armstrong: Understanding Inflation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/40672678 Episode 104 - John T Harvey: Inflation, Stagflation & Healing The Nation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/52207835 Episode 123 - Warren Mosler: Understanding The Price Level And Inflation: https://www.patreon.com/posts/59856379 Episode 128 - L. Randall Wray & Yeva Nersisyan: What's Causing Accelerating Inflation? Pandemic Or Policy Response?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/63776558   Job Guarantee episodes:  Episode 4 - Fadhel Kaboub: What is the Job Guarantee?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/41742701 Episode 47 - Pavlina Tcherneva: Building Resilience - The Case For A Job Guarantee: https://www.patreon.com/posts/36034543 Episode 148 - Pavlina Tcherneva: Why The Job Guarantee Is Core To Modern Monetary Theory: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-148-why-73211346 Quick read: Pavlina Tcherneva's Job Guarantee FAQ page: https://pavlina-tcherneva.net/job-guarantee-faq/     Episodes on government bonds (and “vigilantes”): Episode 30 - Steven Hail: Understanding Government Bonds (Part 1):https://www.patreon.com/posts/29621245 Episode 31 - Steven Hail: Understanding Government Bonds (Part 2): https://www.patreon.com/posts/29829500 Episode 143 - Paul Sheard: What Is Quantitative Easing?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/71589989?pr=true Episode 147 - Dirk Ehnts: Do Markets Control Our Politics?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/episode-147-dirk-72906421 Episode 144 - Warren Mosler: The Natural Rate Of Interest Is Zero: https://www.patreon.com/posts/71966513 Episode 145 - John T Harvey: What Determines Currency Prices?: https://www.patreon.com/posts/72283811?pr=true   More on Silicon Valley Bank and bank runs: Episode 162 - Warren Mosler: Anatomy Of A Bank Run: https://www.patreon.com/posts/80157783?pr=true Episode 163 - L. Randall Wray: Breaking Banks - The Fed's Magical Monetarist Thinking Strikes Again: https://www.patreon.com/posts/80479169?pr=true Episode 165 - Robert Hockett: Sparking An Industrial Renewal By Building Banks Better: https://www.patreon.com/posts/81084983?pr=true MMT founder Warren Mosler's Proposals for the Treasury, the Federal Reserve, the FDIC, and the Banking System: https://neweconomicperspectives.org/2010/02/warren-moslers-proposals-for-treasury.html     MMT Events And Courses In 2023: More information about Professor Bill Mitchell's MMTed project (free public online courses in MMT) here: http://www.mmted.org/ Apply for Dr Dirk Ehnts' Modern Monetary Theory and European Macroeconomics course at Maastricht University (July 31st - August 4th) here: https://maastricht.dreamapply.com/courses/course/183-modern-monetary-theory-and-european-macroeconomics Details of Modern Money Lab's online graduate and postgraduate courses in MMT are here: https://modernmoneylab.org.au/ Details of the next MMT Summer school in Poznań, Poland (September 5th-7th) will be available on this page when confirmed: https://fundacjalipinskiego.pl/wydarzenia/ Website of the 3rd International European MMT Conference (September 9th-10th: https://www.mmtconference.eu/   MMT Academic Resources compiled by The Gower Initiative for Modern Money Studies: https://www.zotero.org/groups/2251544/mmt_academic_resources_-_compiled_by_the_gower_initiative_for_modern_money_studies   MMT scholarship compiled by New Economic Perspectives: http://neweconomicperspectives.org/mmt-scholarship     A list of MMT-informed campaigns and organisations worldwide: https://www.patreon.com/posts/47900757     We are working towards full transcripts, but in the meantime, closed captions for all episodes are available on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCEp_nGVTuMfBun2wiG-c0Ew/videos     Show notes: https://www.patreon.com/posts/83036883?pr=true

    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
    The Real Estate News Brief: Two New Inflation Reports, U.S. Debt Default Impact, Gallup Poll on Investor Preferences

    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later May 17, 2023 6:37


    In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 13th, 2023... some good news about inflation, how a U.S. debt default might impact housing, and a new Gallup Poll on investor preferences.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with two inflation reports from this past week. The first was a report on the Consumer Price Index for April. The CPI shows a .4% rise in consumer prices which is a slight increase from the previous month, but it brought the annual rate below 5% for the first time in two years. It hit a high of 9.1% last summer, but is now down to 4.9%. The core rate, which omits food and fuel, was also down .4%, with an annual rate of 5.5%. Shelter prices rose the most, but those prices are slowing down. It's interesting to note that the three-month annualized rate is now at 3.2%. (1)   Producer prices are also coming down. The Labor Department reported a .2% increase in the Producer Price Index for April, with an annual rate of 2.3%. The PPI's core rate was also down .2% but the annual rate is a bit higher, at 3.4%. As MarketWatch reports: “Inflation is moderating at the consumer and producer levels. This is adding to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further at the next meeting in mid-June.” (2)   The Fed's preferred report on inflation, known as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index or PCE, will play a big role in what the Fed does next. That's coming out at the end of this month.   Weekly jobless claims were a surprise on the upside, with 240,000 people filing for benefits. They were 22,000 higher than they were for the previous week. Economists had only expected an increase of 3,000. That's the highest number of claims since October of 2021. The numbers have been steadily rising since January, for a total of 1.81 million continuing claims. Higher numbers indicate a softening of the job market and slower wage growth which the Fed wants to see in its fight against inflation. (3)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates are still idling in the lower 6% range. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down four basis points to 6.35% this last week. The 15-year was down one point to 5.75%. (4) Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, says: “A recent sideways trend in mortgage rates is a welcome departure from the record increases of last year.” (5)   In other news making headlines…   Mortgage Rates Would Skyrocket if U.S. Defaults on Debt   As lawmakers haggle over the debt ceiling, there's concern about what would happen if they don't come to an agreement and the government defaults. According to Zillow, it would have a devastating impact on the housing market, with mortgage rates potentially rising to 8.4%. That would increase a typical mortgage payment by 22%. (6)   Zillow says if mortgage rates get to the 8% level, existing home sales could fall from April's 4.3 million to around 3.3 million in September. That's a 23% drop. Zillow's senior economist, Jeff Tucker, acknowledges that a default is “unlikely” but if it did happen, he says it would send the housing market into a “deep freeze.”   It is hoped that President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy will hammer out a deal by June 1st. In a Bloomberg interview, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: “There is no satisfactory solution for the U.S. that's good for the economy and financial markets other than Congress acting to raise the debt ceiling.”   Fed's Rate Hikes Are Now Hurting the Housing Market   Housing economists are not happy about the latest rate hike. The Fed hiked short-term rates another quarter point to a range of 5 to 5.25%. The National Association of Realtors' Lawrence Yun and the National Association of Home Builders' Robert Dietz call it “disappointing.” They say the high rates are freezing loan activity and hurting the economy. (7)   They say that consumer prices have been coming down for months and the last rate hike wasn't necessary. Yun says that: “Regional banks are an important source of loans – but they are frozen.” He says: “They are shuffling their balance sheets and figuring out what to do.”   Dietz says that higher rates are making it harder for developers to build homes, which are badly needed to boost inventory. He says: “We need to be building more than 1.1 million homes a year to haVe a meaningful impact on the lack of inventory.”    Real Estate Still a Top Investment Choice, but Lead is Shrinking   A recent Gallup poll shows that real estate is still a top investment choice, but the lead is shrinking. In 2022, 45% of the participants said that real estate is the best long-term investment. This year, that percentage shrank to just 34%. (8)   Many consumers have turned to gold, which has now taken second place and pushed stocks into third. Gold was favored by 26% this year, compared to 15% last year. Stocks dropped from 24% last year to 18% this year. Savings accounts, CDs, and bonds are up slightly but they are still in fourth place.    Gallup asked some of the participants about crypto, but that has lost its luster with the recent collapse of the FTX crypto exchange, and a decline in crypto prices, especially for bitcoin. Only 4% of Americans are choosing crypto. Last year, it was 8%.   That's it for today. Check the show notes for links, and the “Join for Free” button to become a member of RealWealth. It's free to join, and you'll have full access to our website including our investor portal where you can check out various rental property markets and find out how to make real estate work for you in this tough environment.   And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-price-inflation-cools-to-lowest-rate-in-two-years-in-april-ef69d854?mod=home-page   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-april-producer-prices-rise-2-3-over-past-year-smallest-increase-since-january-2021-8afa903e?mod=economy-politics   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-hit-264-000-in-latest-week-highest-level-since-last-october-d63852a4?mod=economy-politics   4 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   5 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-are-steadily-edging-downward   6 - https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/12/us-default-would-send-mortgage-rates-past-8/   7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/housing-economists-fed-policy-now-hurting-real-estate   8 - https://news.gallup.com/poll/505592/real-estate-lead-best-investment-shrinks-gold-rises.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

    Marketplace All-in-One
    Revisiting the banking bedlam this year

    Marketplace All-in-One

    Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2023 9:27


    There are multiple congressional hearings underway today to take a look back at what happened with the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year. In the Senate, we’re hearing from former executives of those banks. In the House of Representatives, the Federal Reserve’s top banking watchdog and other regulators are speaking. Also today: we have the latest data on retail sales. Consumers appear to be holding up pretty strong. And lastly, why you might be paying more for flood insurance.

    Marketplace Morning Report
    Revisiting the banking bedlam this year

    Marketplace Morning Report

    Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2023 9:27


    There are multiple congressional hearings underway today to take a look back at what happened with the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank earlier this year. In the Senate, we’re hearing from former executives of those banks. In the House of Representatives, the Federal Reserve’s top banking watchdog and other regulators are speaking. Also today: we have the latest data on retail sales. Consumers appear to be holding up pretty strong. And lastly, why you might be paying more for flood insurance.

    The Higher Standard
    Inflation Isn't What You Think, Tipping is Out of Control and Pot Calling the Kettle

    The Higher Standard

    Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2023 74:52


    The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits have jumped to a 1-1/2-year high, pointing to cracks in the labor market as demand slows, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to halt further interest rate increases next month. With demand cooling, inflation pressures are subsiding. Data from the Labor Department indicates that producer prices rebounded modestly in April, leading to the smallest annual increase in wholesale inflation in more than two years.In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.They discuss a Labor Department report showing that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.4% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate.Chris and Saied look at comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that markets will be gripped by panic as the U.S. approaches a possible default on its sovereign debt, calling the default "potentially catastrophic" for the country.They also offer some thoughts on a statement by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who cautioned that interest rate increases will take a while to work their way through the economy before inflation returns to an acceptable level.Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.Enjoy!What You'll Learn in this Show:Why services inflation is really consumer discretionary spending more than anything else.Why housing prices are excluded from the Labor Department's CPI report.The odds of a Fed rate cut this year.Why the Fed's 'stress tests' for banks failed.And so much more...Resources:"Jamie Dimon warns panic will overtake markets as US approaches debt default" (CNBC via Instagram)"The family behind First Citizen's Bank is $1 billion richwer since SVB" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)"AirBnB stock craters - founders lose $4 billion in one day" (Forbes via Instagram)"Inflation rate eases to 4.9% in April, less than expectations" (CNBC)"Wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in April, less than estimate as inflation pressures ease" (CNBC)"Fed's John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn't come down" (CNBC)"Worries linger about financial stability following bank rescue, Fed report shows" (CNBC)"US weekly jobless claims hit 1-1/2-year high; inflation subsiding" (Reuters)

    Purpose-Driven Wealth
    Episode 79 - Is it Time for a Monetary Revolution?

    Purpose-Driven Wealth

    Play Episode Listen Later May 16, 2023 52:10


    Join Mo Bina and Eric Yakes in this insightful episode of the Purpose-Driven Wealth podcast as they delve into the world of finance and Bitcoin. Eric, a finance and economics graduate, shares his journey in the financial industry and how it led him to the revolutionary Bitcoin space. He believes that Bitcoin can bring a private alternative monetary system that will enable freedom for many different people and reduce the size and power of governments. He views Bitcoin as a revolutionary technology that can significantly impact what it is capable of doing for society in the long run. This episode is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the properties of money and the potential of Bitcoin as a new form of currency.  Here's what you will expect in this episode… Eric's background and how he got interested in Bitcoin The role of the Federal Reserve and primary bank dealers in creating demand for government bonds, leading to inflation and wealth inequality Bitcoin's potential as an alternative to fiat currencies and traditional financial systems The properties of money and how they relate to Bitcoin's role as a potential new form of money Eric's view on Bitcoin as a revolutionary technology that can significantly impact society in the long run, despite the difficult transition from the current financial system And so much more! About Eric Yakes: Eric Yakes graduated with a double major in finance & economics from Creighton University and 3 years later earned my CFA charter. He began his career at FTI Consulting in their Corporate Finance and Restructuring group for the TMT industry and then moved to Lion Equity Partners, a distressed buyout private equity fund. All the while he intently followed Bitcoin, and its development eventually led him to author the book: The 7th Property: Bitcoin and the Monetary Revolution. He is currently working towards building a bitcoin financial services business. Connect with Eric Yakes on… Website: yakes.io Twitter: @ericyakes LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eric-yakes-598a6956/ Connect with Mo Bina on… Website: https://www.high-risecapital.com/ Medium: https://mobina.medium.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5ISsEKBHlkX7lk9b68SKLA/featured Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/highrisecapital/ For more information on passive investing in commercial real estate, please check out our free eBook — More Doors, More Profits — by clicking here: https://www.high-risecapital.com/resources-index