Podcasts about Inflation

In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

AI investment is reshaping the global outlook. In part one of this economic roundtable, our panel explores where the momentum is strongest — and where investment still needs to catch up.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist. Seth Carpenter: And today is going to be our third quarter economic roundtable taking a wide-angle view on the global economy and all the key forces shaping our outlook and the economy. Seth Carpenter: It's Monday, July 20th at 10am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since our last roundtable in April, the global economy has continued to face all sorts of shocks, a mix of resilience and friction. Inflation pressures have not disappeared. Energy and geopolitical risks have come up, they've receded, they've come back, they've receded all over the place But there is one underlying source of momentum that we have to talk about. And that is the AI-driven CapEx cycle. Michael, let me turn to you because the U.S. is a real focal point of all of this. Tell me a little bit about where Morgan Stanley Research is thinking about hyperscaler CapEx. How big it is? And then for you, when you think about the U.S. economy, just how big of a driver is it for what we're looking for in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, we continue to revise higher our estimates for hyperscaler and AI-related CapEx in the U.S. economy. We were thinking a little over a trillion for 2027. Now we're more like 1.2 - 1.3 trillion, maybe as high as 1.4 trillion in 2028. So, the level of hyperscaler spending continues to keep rising. The growth rate and its effect on the economy is likely to slow. But as you noted, it's still a major driver of momentum in the U.S. You would look at that headline number and think, "Wow, that's, you know, 3.5 percent or so of GDP. Must be a massive source of momentum for GDP growth." But roughly about 60 percent of that hyperscaler CapEx spending goes to items like computers and peripherals, equipment spending categories that have a very, very high import content. We still get a significant number that AI CapEx is probably contributing around 40 basis points to growth this year. Be a similar-sized amount perhaps next year.So, for an economy that's growing somewhere a little bit above 2 percent right now, maybe closer to 2.5 percent next year, that's a non-trivial amount. We just have to remember it's fueling growth around the world, just not here in the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, that's a really great point because I have seen some estimates where people say, "Well, if it wasn't for AI CapEx, the U.S. economy wouldn't have grown at all." And that's clearly wrong, as you point out. But U.S. imports are necessarily exports from somewhere else. And, Chetan, if I can pull you into the story then, U.S. firms are buying a lot of AI-related equipment from Asia. What does that mean in your part of the world? And in particular, I'm thinking about Korea, Taiwan, and maybe some other economies in Asia. What's the critical story there? Chetan Ahya: So, for Asia, this has definitely been a big boon. If you look at Asia's exports, they have been booming, and particularly for the ones which are exporting semiconductors to the U.S. They are seeing semiconductor exports growing by 90 percent. And when we go back in time and compare Asia's semiconductor exports, it's very tightly linked to the U.S. IT CapEx. And it's not surprising when Mike Gapen mentions about the imports going up. It's on the other side, helping Asia's exports quite meaningfully. So, so far, we've seen this benefiting Korea, number one, Taiwan, and also Japan. All these three are big beneficiaries of U.S. AI CapEx. And of course, also not just U.S., but the other countries which are doing any little amount of CapEx on AI front, that's also helping these three economies in the region. Seth Carpenter: You've been doing a lot of work, Chetan, recently about how much the story can actually broaden out, that the AI CapEx cycle has really contributed to Asian growth, but it doesn't tell the whole story that there's a broader industrial cycle. Can you give us a little bit of a flavor of that story? Chetan Ahya: That's right, Seth. So, we are actually highlighting that there is a CapEx and industrial super cycle that is underway in Asia, and there are four components to this story. AI and semiconductors CapEx, which we just briefly discussed. Number two is energy. Number three is defense. And number four is industrial supply chain onshoring related CapEx. I know that everybody still thinks that AI is the most important part of this story, but when I give you the numbers and the breakup of that... So, for Asia, AI and semiconductor companies CapEx is about $380 billion in 2026, but energy CapEx is going to be $900 billion. So, this is a far broader story than just AI for Asia. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me come back to you and to the U.S. then. So, isn't the growth story also broader than that as well domestically? So, what's going on in terms of consumer spending in the U.S., and is there a broader CapEx story in the U.S. as well? Michael Gapen: I would say, is it broader than that? I think maybe you could argue also it's narrower than that. Here's what I mean by that. As I noted AI CapEx contributing about 40 basis points to growth, it's certainly underpinning equity valuations in the U.S. and underpinning strong wealth creation. So about [$]180 trillion in household net worth in the U.S. About [$]55 trillion of that has been created in just the last five years alone, underpinned in part by AI-related spending and optimism about future profitability. That's really supported spending by upper income households. So, I think it's both investment-led and consumer-led, but they're inextricably linked. So, the positive for the U.S. is that it's providing a lot of resilience. The negative component of that is it feels like momentum in the U.S. is narrowly driven. Jens Eisenschmidt: Let me maybe jump in here from Europe to provide some perspective from the other side. So, I think it's a fair summary to say that AI investment is not yet, or maybe will never get there, dominating the business cycle. What we do have instead is an unusually consumption-driven expansion. That has to do not so much with an extraordinary strength of consumption, but more of an absence of other factors. Now, prospectively looking forward, we think the fiscal expansion might help lifting us a little bit. And then it is really the debate how much AI investment can arrive in Europe. For now, I would say it's probably a factor of 20 that separates European investment plans from the plans we know that exist for the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Let me stick with you then in Europe because you brought up fiscal as one of the factors going on here and where it's going… You and your team recently wrote a blue paper talking about what the outlook is for fiscal policy in Europe, and in particular, we had this era of cheap debt. Interest rates in Europe were low, at times negative. It was super easy to borrow. Not as much happened then. There's been a shift towards more fiscal expansion at the same time that interest rates have gone up, causing the cost of debt to go up. Feels like there's a lot of push and pull going on. Can you unpack for us a little bit what was in that paper you wrote, what's going on with fiscal policy in Europe, especially in Germany? And what it might mean over time for Euro-area countries? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, so I think fiscal policy in Europe really is looking at a regime shift. So, there is this very famous, probably in the U.S. even more so than here, notion that the Europeans have built a very comfortable welfare state. And that's true if you just look at the accounting from a GDP perspective. It's close to 50 percent that, you know, budgets are actually extended on welfare spending. And now you have three structural headwinds for any type of fiscal spend. So, one is aging related costs, you mentioned it already. Defense spending has to increase significantly, and the interest rate costs will also rise significantly. All of that means there will be very hard choices to be made. The one thing that actually could help here is growth. Growth is the one thing that's, for now at least, missing, at least in comparison to the U.S. It's probably half what we expect, what the U.S. colleagues think is in stake for the U.S., and a quarter or even less than that of what is there in Asia. So, growth is really the key, the solution, the answer to everything in Europe. More growth than just 1 percent, which is potential, would help solving that fiscal challenge. For now, it looks really, really like an uphill battle. Returning to Germany, it's the one country that has a very good fiscal starting position. They are pushing a lot but they're to some extent pushing a string. So, even with the German huge fiscal package, given that private sector investments so far are absent, doesn't get us a ton of growth. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, maybe I'll come back to you before we close part one of this roundtable. The AI CapEx cycle started with AI, broadened out further. How long do you expect this cycle to last? How durable can it be? And how might it compare to previous CapEx cycles? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we think this will be a multi-year CapEx cycle. And when we are thinking about the duration of the cycle, there are two things that I would keep in mind. Number one is that most of the drivers that we just discussed – the CapEx on AI, energy, defense, and industrial supply chain onshoring related investments – these are all structural drivers. So, we think these are going to continue for some more time. At this point of time, we have the visibility for this cycle to be lasting for three-four more years. And then the second point of framework that I would keep in mind is that the corporate balance sheets are in a pretty good shape. So, when you are thinking about the leverage in the private sector, you can look at both households and the corporate sector balance sheet. But since the cycle is CapEx driven, we are looking at the corporate balance sheets, and they are in a pretty good shape. Across the region, corporate debt to GDP is below where it was in 2019. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me, let me wrap up quickly with you. We talked about AI, AI CapEx. For now, that's a very strong demand story. When are we going to see a supply side of things coming from AI? Are you already seeing a big contribution to GDP and growth from productivity coming from AI? Michael Gapen: We are, but not outside of the high-tech sectors, and we're seeing limited, what I'll call labor market restructuring of tasks and occupations beyond high AI-exposed occupations. So right now, everything is still very isolated I think maybe as we get into 2029 and beyond, so as Chetan says, we probably have a three to four-year super cycle here around a build-out phase. Then we might see some of that broader-based diffusion to other non-tech sectors in the economy. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, for you, let's wrap up here. So, what is the state of play for the build-out in the CapEx cycle for AI in Europe? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's very early stages. As I said before, we really; we connected to all the industry experts or analysts covering the sector and the total plans are a factor of 20 below what we see in the U.S. by just the seven hyperscalers. So, I would say very fragmented, very small, in general. Not only AI. I think the one thing I would be looking at for any type of sign of revival, sign of growth is investment. The second would be investment. And you can guess what the third would be… Investments in the core countries. That's really what we need to see, and we haven't seen much in Germany or France on this front. Seth Carpenter:That's a great place for us to stop today. We talked about the real side of the economy, AI, CapEx, trade. Tomorrow we're going to come back, and we'll talk about how that growth outlook affects inflation. And once you start talking about growth and inflation, you got to talk about policy, and that's where we'll be tomorrow. Mike, Jens, and Chetan, thank you for joining today. And for the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for Part 2 of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Plus: Oil tops $90 a barrel as Middle East conflict continues. And shares of Utz Brands soar after the snack-food maker agrees to go private. Imani Moise hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Markets never stop moving, and neither do the conversations that matter most to investors and future retirees. Join Wes Moss and Connor Miller on this episode of the Money Matters Podcast as they break down the latest retirement planning, investing, financial planning, and personal finance headlines with historical perspective and practical context. • Find out how the latest inflation data may influence Federal Reserve policy and interest rate expectations. • See what early projections for the 2027 Social Security COLA—and rising Medicare Part B premiums—may mean for retirement income planning. • Compare wage growth and inflation to better understand what's happening with purchasing power. • Explore the buzz around IPOs while examining what history suggests about IPO investing versus long-term index investing. • Discover how stocks, bonds, and cash have historically performed after inflation across different investment time horizons. • Consider how oil prices, global events, and corporate earnings may influence market volatility and investor sentiment. • Follow the broadening earnings story across the S&P 500, including the growing impact of artificial intelligence spending and wider sector participation. • Learn about the retirement planning tools and bonus resources available with The Retire Sooner Method. Listen to the Money Matters Podcast for more conversations connecting today's headlines with retirement planning, investing, financial planning, and personal finance. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you never miss a new episode.

Inflation is back above 4%... but is the worst still to come?James and Mike break down New Zealand's latest 4.1% inflation result, why petrol prices are driving almost all of the increase, whether higher interest rates are actually the right solution, what it means for mortgages, businesses and household budgets, and where they believe the economy is heading over the next 12 months.Next steps: Need help navigating rising interest rates? Speak with the Lighthouse Mortgage team today.For more money tips follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The content in this podcast is the opinion of the hosts. It should not be treated as financial advice. It is important to take into consideration your own personal situation and goals before making any financial decisions.

So, this cost of living crisis is not going away anytime soon, despite what any number of New Zealand political parties promise they can do about it. The inflation figures are out. It's gone up by one percentage point and there's now a four in front of it. A large part of that cost is petrol, which we can do nothing about. Diesel is up 7.1%. But even excluding tradable inflation, which we can't influence, non-tradable inflation is still above the Reserve Bank's arbitrary target band. It came in at 2.9%. That's up from 2.4% a year ago. There's stuff in there that really gets our goat, like the 12% rise in electricity prices. Rates are up 8.8%. That's the non-tradable stuff. We can influence that but we're not. It's all going up. But all this increases the pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates to squash these price rises. The problem I have with that is that the nascent recovery we're starting to see gets squashed as well, forcing us into a longer period of downturn and stagnation. And that's because this simplistic inflation target does not take into account all the complex wheels that spin in an economy. It's this brutal, simplistic measure that served us so well when it was first introduced 30 years ago but is now seeing us boom and bust, lurching up and down on a rollercoaster that, you have to say, is no good for long-term economic planning. There is a strong argument for a new way of calculating our economic position rather than relying on a single inflation figure. But it's going to take a very smart person to figure that out. So until then, the fairground ride that is our macroeconomic setting will continue.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) has increased 4.1% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. As expected, the increase can be partially contributed to the US-Iran war as the largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate was petrol, up 27.5%. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is labelling annual inflation hitting its highest level in more than two years a “Trump spike”. Former Reserve Bank senior economist Michael Reddell told Andrew Dickens that economists don't tend to look at the headline numbers but they will be digging through the numbers to find trends. "It's a bit like the famous line about democracy, you know, it's not a perfect system, it's just better than any of the alternatives that have been tried, and inflation targeting is a bit like that as well. It's definitely not perfect." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In a sit-down interview with The Hui, Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson took aim at the coalition government. She said that while the Greens are "readier than we have ever been" for an election, the current Government is "a pack of bastards".Chris Hipkins has come out swinging today making the observation that maybe NZ First should be called "Labour's Seconds" due to the number of former Labour MPs that were, and are, involved with Winston Peters' partyNicola Willis has fronted the media today about the increase in inflation to 4.1% saying that Trump ‘certainly made things harder' and looking for external excuses for the number, which may be true on some level, but they certainly didn't give Labour the same excuse when external excuses, in the form of a global pandemic, caused inflation to spike in the last term. Labour's finance spokesperson Barb Edmonds joins us live at 9pm to talk about today's announcement++++++++++++++++++++Like us on Facebook.com/BigHairyNetwork Follow us on Twitter.com/@bighairynetworkFollowing us on TikTok.com/@bighairynetworkSupport us on Patreon www.patreon.com/c/BigHairyNewsCheck out our merch https://bhn.nz/shop/Donate to our work https://bhn.nz/shop/donation/

Inflation has hit 4.1% - the highest level in more than two years. Economists had expected it surge to somewhere between 3.9 and 4.1 percent. However, the end result is well below some previous forecasts, which reached 4.9%. If we ignored the surging fuel prices, Westpac economists reckon inflation would be about 2.8 percent. So what does this actually mean for the cost of living, for interest rates, and for the story of the New Zealand economy in 2026? Today on The Front Page, NZ Herald business editor at large Liam Dann is with us to unpack how we got to 4.1%, what’s really driving the numbers, and what comes next for households, businesses, and the path back to stable prices. Follow The Front Page on iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. You can read more about this and other stories in the New Zealand Herald, online at nzherald.co.nz, or tune in to news bulletins across the NZME network. Host: Chelsea DanielsEditor/Producer: Richard MartinProducer: Jane YeeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Consumers Price Index (CPI) has increased 4.1% in the 12 months to the June 2026 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today. As expected, the increase can be partially contributed to the US-Iran war as the largest upwards contributor to the annual inflation rate was petrol, up 27.5%. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is labelling annual inflation hitting its highest level in more than two years a “Trump spike”. Former Reserve Bank senior economist Michael Reddell told Andrew Dickens that economists don't tend to look at the headline numbers but they will be digging through the numbers to find trends. "It's a bit like the famous line about democracy, you know, it's not a perfect system, it's just better than any of the alternatives that have been tried, and inflation targeting is a bit like that as well. It's definitely not perfect." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The bond market just broke a major correlation at a particularly crucial moment. As the Warsh Fed sets out to stamp its mark on the market, the market is already stomping the narrative and doing so in a highly unusual way. UST & WTI have split up, with more than the Fed getting caught up in the burgeoning divorce. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/07/16/pending-home-sales-june.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

The so called experts said President Trump's tariffs would send prices soaring. They were wrong. Again. The latest Consumer Price Index numbers didn't just come in lower than expected. They came in four times better than economists predicted, with prices actually falling in key areas of the economy. Let that sink in. Prices are going down, not up. The fear campaign has officially collapsed. For months, the media, Wall Street, and the political class promised Americans that tariffs would spark runaway inflation. Instead, we've got the exact opposite. Inflation continues to cool, proving what many of us have been saying all along. Tariffs are not being passed on to consumers the way the critics claimed. America is collecting billions in tariff revenue while families are getting relief. This is what an America First economy looks like. President Trump is putting this economy on a rocket ship. Manufacturing is returning. Investment is pouring back into the United States. Jobs are growing. Confidence is rising. And now inflation is moving in the right direction. The best part? We're only getting started. The One Big Beautiful Bill continues to take effect, you'll see more investment, more growth, lower taxes, and an economy that rewards American workers instead of shipping jobs overseas. The doomsday predictions have failed. The facts are undeniable. President Trump's economic agenda is working, and America is proving once again that when we put our own citizens first, prosperity follows. Sponsors The Maverick Systemhttps://TheMaverickSystem.com Patriot Mobilehttps://PatriotMobile.com/Grant The Wellness Companyhttps://TWC.Health/GrantPromo Code: GRANT for 10% off Lost Soldier Oil & Gashttps://LostSoldier.com See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

http://www.astronomycast.com/archive/ From October 15, 2007. Hosted by: Fraser Cain (@frasercain) and Dr. Pamela L. Gay (@CosmoQuest) We interrupt this tour through the solar system to bring you a special show to deal with one of our most complicated subjects: the big bang. Specifically, how it's possible that the universe could have expanded faster than the speed of light. The theory is called the inflationary theory, and the evidence is mounting to support it. Einstein said that nothing can move faster than the speed of light, and yet astronomers think the universe expanded from a microscopic spec to become larger than the solar system, in a fraction of a second.   We've added a new way to donate to 365 Days of Astronomy to support editing, hosting, and production costs.  Just visit: https://www.patreon.com/365DaysOfAstronomy and donate as much as you can! Share the podcast with your friends and send the Patreon link to them too!  Every bit helps! Thank you! ------------------------------------ Do go visit http://www.redbubble.com/people/CosmoQuestX/shop for cool Astronomy Cast and CosmoQuest t-shirts, coffee mugs and other awesomeness! http://cosmoquest.org/Donate This show is made possible through your donations.  Thank you! (Haven't donated? It's not too late! Just click!) ------------------------------------ The 365 Days of Astronomy Podcast is produced by the Planetary Science Institute. http://www.psi.edu Visit us on the web at 365DaysOfAstronomy.org or email us at info@365DaysOfAstronomy.org.

Derek Moore is joined by Mike Snyder and Shane Skinner to discuss SpaceX now being below its IPO price and whether it can grow into its current value. Plus, Apple sues OpenAI as the stock continues to run into earnings. Later, did anything fundamentally change with the memory stocks like Micron or people just don't want to be the last out. Finally, the Strait of Hormuz didn't matter to markets until the market decided it mattered again.   Apple sues OpenAI Micron and the memory stocks dip again Trading behavior psychology losing hurt more than winning feels good? Strait of Hormuz tanker tracker ticks lower More sellers than buyers in memory stocks SpaceX moves below its IPO price Looking at the Mag7 stocks and how they grew into their valuations over a decade    Were the Mag7 stocks expensive or undervalued in hindsight 10 years ago? SpaceX forward valuation Interest rates and oil prices Inflation surprises to the downside   Mentioned in this Episode     Derek Moore's book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT   Jay Pestrichelli's book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt   Derek's book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag   Contact Derek derek.moore@zegainvestments.com  

In this podcast, Frida Infante and Harry Downie discuss the latest inflation data and breakeven markets across the euro area, the UK and the U.S. following a re-escalation of the US–Iran conflict, renewed hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, and a sharp reversal higher in energy prices, and where they see the key risks.   This podcast was recorded on 20 July 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5351469-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Plus: Wildfires continue to burn in northwestern Ontario, the U.S. and Iran exchange strikes for a ninth consecutive night, Britain has a new prime minister, Spain wins the World Cup, and details on the Gordie Howe Bridge. We love feedback at The Big Story, as well as suggestions for future episodes. You can find us: Through email at hello@thebigstorypodcast.ca  Or @thebigstory.bsky.social on Bluesky

RNZ Economics correspondent Gyles Beckford discusses inflation which is at its highest level in more than two years - with the annual rate at 4.1 per cent.

Gas prices are rising nationwide as fighting involving the United States, Israel and Iran continues to disrupt global energy markets. With crude oil prices climbing and the Strait of Hormuz facing renewed disruptions, Americans are once again paying more at the pump. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed with the latest news from a leading Black-owned & controlled media company: https://aurn.com/newsletter Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

durée : 00:04:17 - Le 13/14 - A l'heure où les centres-villes des communes moyennes souffrent de la disparition de commerces, beaucoup de salons de coiffure mettent la clé sous la porte, notamment depuis le Covid et la crise du pouvoir d'achat. France Inter est allé à Mâcon, où plusieurs coiffeurs subsistent malgré le contexte. - équipe : Cecilia Arbona Vous aimez ce podcast ? Pour écouter tous les épisodes sans limite, rendez-vous sur Radio France

Economists say households already feeling the squeeze from the cost of living could be about to face another blow. Many are expecting today's inflation figures to be at the highest level in two years, climbing to 4.1 percent in the year to June. Reporter Anna Sargent asked some people in Christchurch how they're feeling.

Oil hit $120 a barrel during the last Iran conflict. Today it's sitting around $80... during the SAME kind of conflict. That gap is the whole story for where mortgage rates go next, and I break down exactly why in today's video.I also walk through the two things the Federal Reserve actually cares about (inflation and jobs), what last week's data really showed, and why I'm telling you there's basically a 100% chance the Fed does nothing at next week's meeting. Then I get into what I'm personally telling my clients to do right now if you're under contract, or if you're planning to buy later this year.Stick around to the end, I show you the exact tools I use every single day to track this stuff myself, and how you can use them too.

Our friend from ABC News talked with Susie Jones about the rise in Diesel prices and the trickle down effect to consumers.

There's cautious optimism from economists that inflation will start falling after today. Stats NZ is releasing CPI figures for the June quarter later this morning, which is expected to largely reflect the impact of the Iran war, along with other cost pressures like rates and utility costs. Economists expect it surge to somewhere around 4%. BNZ Chief Economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking that based on their forecasts, this should be the peak. He says next quarter BNZ predicts inflation to come down to 3.8%, before it tails away to be within the Reserve Bank's band in the middle of next year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is Kevin Warsh about to finally put money back in the Federal Reserve? That might sound like a strange question. After all, this is the Federal Reserve. It is supposed to be the center of the monetary system. Its officials set what they call monetary policy, testify before Congress about it, and issue statements filled with the word “monetary.” Yet, for decades, the Federal Reserve's most important policy discussions have contained no information about actual money.That may finally be starting to change.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to: https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=07cZsW54vO4https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20260710_mprfullreport.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Why are Bitcoin miners suddenly at the center of the AI infrastructure boom? Fred Thiel, CEO of MARA, explains "mullet data centers" — AI in the front, Bitcoin mining in the back — and why power is the bottom layer of Jensen Huang's AI pyramid. He details MARA's joint venture with Starwood, load-balancing technology that follows wind power in real time, and lessons from Bitcoin mining that now apply to hyperscale data centers.

Business Editor Corin Dann previews tomorrow's cost of living and inflation figures. He spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

เคยรู้สึกไหมว่าหาเงินก็เก่ง เงินเดือนก็ขึ้นทุกปี แต่ชีวิตกลับไม่ได้สบายขึ้น ทั้งที่รายได้เพิ่มขึ้นเรื่อยๆ แต่ทำไมยังรู้สึกว่า “เงินไม่พอใช้” เหมือนเดิม หรือจริงๆ แล้วปัญหาอาจไม่ได้อยู่ที่รายได้ แต่อยู่ที่ “ไลฟ์สไตล์” ของเรา? . ในแอปเท๋ Dinner Talk EP. นี้ โฮสต์ทั้ง 2 ท่าน แทป-รวิศ หาญอุตสาหะ และ เอ๋ นิ้วกลม-สราวุธ เฮ้งสวัสดิ์ จะชวนมาคุยกันแบบตรงๆ ว่าทำไมยิ่งหาเงินได้มาก เรากลับยิ่งรู้สึกว่าเงินไม่พอใช้ และจะใช้ชีวิตอย่างไร ไม่ให้เผลอติดอยู่ในวงจรแบบนี้ . #การเงิน #selfdevelopment #แอปเท๋dinnertalk #missiontothemoonpodcast

Join us as we analyze the latest market volatility, crypto trends, and the intriguing partnership between Galaxy and Texas Tech, all while exploring the broader implications for crypto and traditional finance.Check Out Scribe: Scribe.how/CRYPTO101Check out Quince: https://quince.com/CRYPTO101Check out Shopify: https://shopify.com/crypto101Check out NPR: https://npr.orgGet my #1 altcoin pick for this month.Get immediate access to my entire crypto portfolio for just $1.00 today! Get your FREE copy of "Crypto Revolution" and start making big profits from buying, selling,Get immediate access to my entire crypto portfolio.. just $1.00 today! Go here to get access: https://www.crypto101insider.com/cryptnation-directm6pypcy1?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=YouTube&utm_content=Podcast&utm_term=20250916Get your FREE copy of "Crypto Revolution: Your Guide To The Future of Money". In this book, I reveal how to make (and keep) a fortune during this crypto bull run! http://www.cryptorevolution.com/free?utm_source=Internal&utm_medium=YouTube&utm_content=Podcast&utm_term=20250916Chapters00:00 Market overview and intro to volatility02:13 Bitcoin's recent sideways movement and key levels04:01 Inflation data and its impact on crypto markets07:30 Market rotation and risk asset performance12:38 Bitcoin relative strength and rotation signals15:05 Bitcoin's technical support levels and trend analysis17:23 Volume profile and market resistance zones22:26 Broader macroeconomic influences and global events29:29 Bitcoin ETF flows and institutional interest41:11 Galaxy's partnership with Texas Tech and strategic insights45:26 Future outlook for crypto and institutional adoptionSubscribe to YouTube for Exclusive Content:https://www.youtube.com/@crypto101podcast?sub_confirmation=1Follow us on social media for leading-edge crypto updates and trade alerts:https://twitter.com/Crypto101Podhttps://instagram.com/crypto_101*This is NOT financial, tax, or legal advice*Boardwalk Flock LLC. All Rights Reserved  ▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Fog by DIZARO https://soundcloud.com/dizarofrCreative Commons — Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 Unported — CC BY-ND 3.0 Free Download / Stream: http://bit.ly/Fog-DIZAROMusic promoted by Audio Library https://youtu.be/lAfbjt_rmE8▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬Our Sponsors:* Check out NPR: https://npr.org* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/crypto101 for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out Scribe and use my code Scribe.how/CRYPTO101 for a great deal: https://scribe.com/Crypto101* Check out Shopify and use my code shopify.com/crypto101 for a great deal: https://www.shopify.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Episode 5526: Inflation Drops As Mainstream Tries To Spin

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we break down the AI stock slowdown, why China's new Kimi K3 model is upending the AI trade, and the hidden cultural bias baked into these systems. We also discuss the cooler inflation report, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's early moves, bitcoin's reaction, and why robotics could be the next big AI trade.======================For a limited time, our listeners get 50% off FOR LIFE, Free Shipping, AND 3 Free Gifts at Mars Men at Mengotomars.com.======================Looking for a better place to trade? BloFin gives traders access to deep liquidity, advanced futures products for crypto AND TradFi assets, fast execution, and a clean, intuitive interface—all in one platform. To celebrate their partnership with us, they're giving away $100,000 in Deposit & Trade Rewards. Deposit, trade, and earn rewards based on your activity during the campaign. Check them out at ( https://partner.blofin.com/d/Pomp ).======================This episode is brought to you by TikTok for Business. If you run a company, your next wave of customers may already be on TikTok. With more than 200 million monthly active users in the U.S. and 51% unique reach, TikTok gives brands access to audiences they can't reach anywhere else. Learn how to turn that reach into growth at TikTok for Business ( https://anthonypompliano.splashthat.com/ )======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy! ======================0:00 - Intro0:50 - AI stock unwind & the summer slowdown5:45 - Framework for picking AI winners7:1 3 - China's Kimi K3 & open source vs. closed models11:09 - Model routers & how many models is too many?17:46 - The hidden "cultural weights" in AI models22:37 - Inflation report & Fed reaction 32:28 - Bitcoin's reaction & crypto allocation39:26 - Nasdaq outlook & where he's avoiding45:09 - Software stocks & what is the next trade?

Let's talk about Trump's inflation lasting until 2028....

The divergence between oil and gas prices is now historic, and one simple calculation explains everything. That calculation is at a record high, and it's not even close. What it shows is why gas remains so expensive and is likely to stay that way for some time even though prices have fallen substantially from their wartime peak. Even though demand for oil has plummeted, and I mean plunged in places like China, and it's not all that great elsewhere. So why are gasoline and diesel still so expensive?Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.clickorlando.com/video/news/2026/07/10/gas-price-roller-coaster-what-drivers-are-saying-as-pump-prices-spike-again/https://en.macromicro.me/series/4934/crude-oil-cracking-spreadhttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=1630https://www.eia.gov/finance/markets/products/prices.phphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-07-13/ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-in-secret-videohttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2026-03-05/china-orders-suspension-of-diesel-gasoline-exports-videohttps://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/video/diesel-fuel-tops-5-a-gallon/https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-refiner-margins-hit-new-records-fuel-shortage-concerns-grow-2026-07-16/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Join Larry Kudlow as he speaks to Michael Faulkender and EJ Antoni as they discuss the economy, the impacts of inflation and more on WABC.  

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a blockbuster week of bank earnings — and why the record numbers mask a growing problem. Wall Street trading and investment banking revenues are exploding, but banks aren't making money on money, as asset yields fall for a sixth straight quarter and private credit giants like Apollo poach deals. Whalen flags roughly $4 trillion in bank exposure to non-depository financial institutions, warns "there are no regulators in Washington" watching the risks, and says the housing market's business-purpose loan boom "feels like 2005." He sticks with his double-digit inflation call, arguing diesel — not oil — is the real story, and predicts fuel shortages, maybe even rationing, before the midterm elections. Plus: Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed debut, gold's selloff as a buying opportunity, viewer questions on Annaly, and a World Cup prediction.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira869Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro and welcome 00:55 Bank earnings and oil prices soar as Middle East war reignites2:36 — Bank earnings disconnect: Wall Street booms, lending shrinks3:55 — Why big deals keep going to private credit (Apollo, Blackstone)5:59 — The hidden risk: banks lending directly to private credit funds9:06 — The $4 trillion exposure — "no regulators watching the hen house"10:07 — The "Everything Bubble": rising rates, falling yields, record home prices12:06 — Kevin Warsh's Greenspan-style Fed: "inflation is a choice"14:40 — Rate hike odds cool — will the Fed wait until after midterms?15:42 — Energy shortages building: why the Trump administration stays quiet16:45 — Double-digit inflation call stands; possible rationing by Election Day17:53 — Iran destroyed Gulf refining capacity — years to rebuild21:52 — Housing: sales fall 2.4%, median price hits record high23:14 — "It feels like 2005" — DSCR and non-QM loans flash warning signs27:19 — Gold selloff: why Chris is buying more (especially silver)29:37 — Viewer Q: How rates affect Annaly (NLY) — it's all about the spread31:03 — Viewer Q: Warsh's 2% target vs. $80 oil — a double whammy?32:27 — Chris's World Cup prediction: Argentina

This week on Henssler Money Talks, we're cutting through the noise to focus on the financial issues that could have the biggest impact on your decisions.We begin with a look at the latest market headlines—from CPI data and the start of earnings season to Federal Reserve testimony on inflation and uncertain progress in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire.Then we answer a listener's question many homeowners are asking: If you've locked in a 3% mortgage, should you stay put or move anyway? Sometimes the best financial decision isn't the right decision for your lifestyle. We'll also revisit some of the financial advice that has become accepted as fact and discuss how changing markets, interest rates, and modern lifestyles have challenged some of the guidance investors have heard for decades.Finally, we'll examine why Ponzi schemes continue to fool investors, the warning signs to watch for, and practical steps you can take to help avoid becoming a victim.Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty. Henssler Money Talks July 18, 2026  |  Season 40, Episode 29Timestamps and Chapters4:43: What's Moving the Markets?14:29: Is Now the Wrong Time to Move?25:06: Does Yesterday's Financial Advice Still Work Today?39:42: When an Investment Is Too Good to Be TrueFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Center for Financial Planning, Inc. owns and licenses the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States to Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc., which authorizes individuals who successfully complete the organization's initial and ongoing certification requirements to use the certification marks.See important disclosures at Henssler.com

1. Strait of Hormuz and Iran Conflict Key points discussed include: Claims that military confrontations between the U.S. and Iran are ongoing. Concerns about threats to commercial shipping and global energy supplies. Discussion of a proposed U.S. transit fee for ships using the Strait of Hormuz, which the speaker says was later replaced with trade and investment agreements involving Gulf states. Assertions that the U.S. is maintaining a blockade on Iranian shipping while protecting international maritime traffic. Discussion of rising oil prices, shipping disruptions, and broader economic implications. U.S. actions are necessary to maintain freedom of navigation and prevent Iran from disrupting world trade and energy markets. 2. Inflation and the U.S. Economy Inflation has fallen significantly. Economic analysts and media outlets underestimated the improvement in inflation figures. Lower energy prices contributed heavily to the reported decline in inflation. The economic results support President Trump's policies and leadership. This is evidence that media organizations and economists have been overly pessimistic about the economy. Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast and Verdict with Ted Cruz Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The short answer is no, the Chevron-Iraq deal won't solve the problem. So why did the U.S.-based energy company sign a vague, preliminary deal to negotiate a pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz? It's another sign that energy firms expect the war with Iran to drag on. Also in this episode: Talent managers represent more social media influencers as sponsored content spending grows, a food critic delivers the history of iconic Las Vegas buffets, and the U.S. experiences a fun shortage.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Inflation is softening. Can it last with war and tariffs?Chevron seeks new route to transport oil from IraqThe professionals behind that sponcon on your feedThe economics behind America's fun shortageThe Las Vegas buffet, from 1946 to today

The short answer is no, the Chevron-Iraq deal won't solve the problem. So why did the U.S.-based energy company sign a vague, preliminary deal to negotiate a pipeline that circumvents the Strait of Hormuz? It's another sign that energy firms expect the war with Iran to drag on. Also in this episode: Talent managers represent more social media influencers as sponsored content spending grows, a food critic delivers the history of iconic Las Vegas buffets, and the U.S. experiences a fun shortage.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Inflation is softening. Can it last with war and tariffs?Chevron seeks new route to transport oil from IraqThe professionals behind that sponcon on your feedThe economics behind America's fun shortageThe Las Vegas buffet, from 1946 to today

This Flashback Friday is from episode 1616 published last December 15, 2020. Land, gold, and art, or stocks, bonds, and cash? Jason Hartman talks with Dan Ferris, editor of Extreme Value and host of the Stansberry Investor Hour Podcast. "You need to learn to preserve wealth outside the financial system," Ferris said. Ferris and Hartman go in-depth discussing diversification and its importance versus playing it safe with multi-dimensional assets. Inflation; don't predict it, prepare for it. Check It Out: jasonhartman.com/protect jasonhartman.com/sweethome   Websites: investorhour.com stansberryresearch.com jasonhartman.com/protect JasonHartman.com JasonHartman.com/properties Jason Hartman Quick Start    _______________________________________________________________   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

India is once again scrambling for dollars, kind of begging for them.  After spending months defending the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India is now offering generous support to banks to get them to raise foreign-currency deposits. They're being encouraged to get creative with it, everything from creating new products to using new digital channels. And, of course, the old school way of just jacking up the interest rate offer. All designed to get dollars into Indian hands. “Begging” might be a strong word, but only barely.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Learn more about Augusta Precious Metals and what they have to offer - including physical gold for IRA accounts - by going to: https://EurodollarGold.com or text EURO to 35052. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R03-x-Wmr7khttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrVIwKnUkBchttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jCp5wnM6Ighttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NF6bNaq2hVYhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

In this AMA episode, Ben Felix, Dan Bortolotti, and Ben Wilson tackle a wide range of practical investing questions submitted by listeners. They begin by discussing one of the most common investing mistakes—market timing—and explain why getting back into the market is often harder than getting out. From there, they explore the evidence behind lump sum investing versus dollar-cost averaging, why high valuations rarely justify sitting in cash, and how your discomfort with investing may reveal a mismatch between your portfolio and your true risk tolerance.   The conversation also pulls back the curtain on PWL Capital's investment committee, detailing how new investment products are evaluated, how due diligence is conducted, and why even seemingly simple index funds require ongoing scrutiny. They then examine whether any recent Canadian ETF innovations are genuinely useful, discuss retirement-focused T-Series asset allocation ETFs, debate whether gamified trading creates opportunities for active management, and respond to questions about inflation, currency debasement, and the real drivers of long-term stock returns. As always, the episode closes with a lighter listener question before reading a review from the audience. Key Points From This Episode: (0:04) Introduction and why AMA episodes continue to resonate with listeners. (0:55) A listener asks how to reinvest after selling half their portfolio over bubble concerns. (2:00) Why successful market timing requires being right twice. (3:04) Why all-time market highs are normal and poor signals for investment decisions. (4:00) What market valuations can—and cannot—tell us about future returns. (5:00) The evidence comparing lump sum investing with dollar-cost averaging. (6:34) Why even the worst historical entry points rarely favor dollar-cost averaging. (9:07) How investment anxiety often points to an overly aggressive asset allocation. (11:37) The psychology of buying after market crashes and why investors rarely do. (13:20) Why the best strategy is often whichever gets you invested and keeps you there. (16:14) A behind-the-scenes look at PWL Capital's investment committee. (17:23) How new securities are researched, reviewed, and approved. (19:10) How acquisitions have changed the firm's investment oversight process. (20:15) Annual due diligence on ETF providers and fund managers. (21:55) Why even plain-vanilla index funds require performance monitoring. (25:17) Are there any genuinely innovative new Canadian ETFs? (26:27) Why most ETF innovation is driven by investor demand rather than better investing. (28:19) Avantis ETFs and discount bond ETFs as notable recent developments. (33:52) Why ETF issuers tend to launch products after investment themes become popular. (33:52) Where investors should spend their planning time when wealth is still relatively small. (35:00) Why growing human capital often has a greater impact than optimizing investments. (37:59) Budgeting, saving, and account selection early in an investing journey. (39:14) BMO's new T-Series asset allocation ETFs and how they generate retirement income. (41:56) Understanding managed distributions and return of capital. (44:08) Why these retirement ETFs may suit DIY investors but not every retiree. (48:31) Whether gamified trading and meme stocks create opportunities for active managers. (50:08) What the evidence says about active management in small-cap growth stocks. (53:39) Why market competition limits persistent opportunities from retail speculation. (53:39) Do stocks only rise because governments debase currencies? (55:59) Inflation measurement, currency debasement, and common misconceptions. (58:10) Why productive businesses—not money printing alone—drive long-term stock returns. (59:53) Ben answers a listener's basketball shoe question. (1:02:02) A listener review from Switzerland and closing remarks. Links From Today's Episode: Meet with PWL Capital: https://calendly.com/d/3vm-t2j-h3p Rational Reminder on iTunes — https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-rational-reminder-podcast/id1426530582. Rational Reminder on Instagram — https://www.instagram.com/rationalreminder/ Rational Reminder on YouTube — https://www.youtube.com/channel/ Benjamin Felix — https://pwlcapital.com/our-team/ Benjamin on X — https://x.com/benjaminwfelix Benjamin on LinkedIn — https://www.linkedin.com/in/benjaminwfelix/ Dollar Cost Averaging vs Lump Sum Investing - https://pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Dollar-Cost-Averaging-vs-Lump-Sum-Investing.pdf Buy The Dip - https://pwlcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/PWL-Felix-Warwick-Buy-The-Dip_A.pdf   Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)  

Live July 15, 2026 | Yaron Brook Show(Season 12, Episode 124)Iran; ICE; Jones Act; DST; Data Centers; Recycling; Dugin; PayPal; Achievement | Yaron Brook ShowIran Escalates, America Stalls, AI Booms—Why the Biggest Threat May Be Our Own Bad Ideas Is America making the right strategic choices—or is it being undermined by bad economics, bad politics, and even worse philosophy?This Yaron Brook Show connects the dots between the biggest stories shaping our future—from Iran and ICE to AI, energy, PayPal, data centers, and the ideas driving today's political movements.Yaron examines America's strategy toward Iran, the debate over immigration enforcement, why the century-old Jones Act continues to damage Puerto Rico and the U.S. economy, and how Congress manages to ignore exploding national debt while obsessing over daylight saving time.The conversation then shifts to artificial intelligence, New York's proposed data center moratorium, ASML's outlook, California's latest recycling regulations, and why abundant energy—not government restrictions—will determine America's technological future.Yaron also explores Alexander Dugin's strange celebration of "success," Stripe's reported interest in PayPal, encouraging new research showing declining dementia rates, and what these stories reveal about innovation, achievement, and the moral foundations of a free society.The live Q&A tackles CIA involvement in Iran's 1953 coup, the disturbing normalization of extremist politics, the future of the New Right, the economic lessons of Hong Kong and Singapore, the absence of Objectivism in universities, altruism's cultural dominance, entrepreneurship, philosophy, and much more.If you enjoy deep analysis of politics, economics, philosophy, technology, and current events from an Objectivist perspective, subscribe and join the conversation.Watch now: https://youtube.com/live/1vg0_HzRexATimestamps00:00 Introduction • England vs. Argentina & World Cup preview05:39 Iran strategy: Is America getting it right?15:01 ICE, crime, and policing in America21:07 The Jones Act's hidden economic costs29:15 Natural gas exports and Puerto Rico35:39 Daylight Saving Time debate45:15 Congress, spending, and the national debt47:12 New York's data center moratorium49:43 AI's future and the U.S. economy53:41 California's recycling crackdown58:44 Alexander Dugin on "success"1:01:59 Stripe, PayPal, and fintech disruption1:06:20 ASML, AI chips, and global demand1:09:04 Why dementia rates are falling1:14:19 Upcoming events & show schedule1:17:35 Alex Epstein, energy & data centersLive Audience Questions1:17:51 Was the 1953 Iran coup justified—or built on fabricated intelligence?1:23:29 Why would Hunter Biden interview Nick Fuentes?1:30:04 Does the New Right have a future after James Fishback?1:31:03 Why did Hong Kong and Singapore succeed despite limited political freedom?1:35:04 Is Objectivism disappearing from universities?1:35:15 Why haven't Africa and South America produced major philosophers?1:36:17 Why is altruism treated as beyond criticism?1:36:52 Where are today's Objectivist entrepreneurs?1:39:00 Are Americans becoming more altruistic?1:39:27 How can irrational people become enormously successful?#Iran #ArtificialIntelligence #ICE #Economics #Capitalism #Objectivism #EnergyPolicy #PayPal #Politics #Immigration #Inflation Subscribe for daily analysis on economics, politics, philosophy, technology, investing, and current events.The Yaron Brook Show is Sponsored by[The Ayn Rand Institute](https://www.aynrand.org/starthere)[Energy Talking Points, featuring AlexAI, by Alex Epstein](https://alexepstein.substack.com/)[Express VPN](https://www.expressvpn.com/yaron)[Hendershott Wealth Management](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4lfC...) &(https://hendershottwealth.com/ybs/)[Michael Williams & The Defenders of Capitalism Project](https://www.DefendersOfCapitalism.com)[Support the Show]( / yaronbrookshow )[Sponsor the Show](askyaron@yaronbrookshow.com/)[One-time donation](https://bit.ly/2RZOyJJ)Join the [Yaron Brook Show YouTube channel]( / @yaronbrook )Like what you hear? Like, share, and subscribe to stay updated on new videos and help promote the [Yaron Brook Show](https://bit.ly/3ztPxTx)Continue the discussion by following Yaron on [Twitter](https://bit.ly/3iMGl6z) and [Facebook](https://bit.ly/3vvWDDC )Want to learn more about Ayn Rand and Objectivism? Visit the [Ayn Rand Institute](https://bit.ly/35qoEC3)Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/yaron-brook-show--3276901/support.Yaron is the executive chairman of the Ayn Rand Institute and a world class speaker. He is the coauthor of the national best-seller Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government, Equal is Unfair: America's Misguided Fight Against Income Inequality and In Pursuit of Wealth: The Moral Case for Finance. He speaks around the world on a variety of topics including the morality of capitalism, Ayn Rand and her philosophy, finance and economics, and the value of inequality.

Though the latest inflation reports show price growth cooled a bit in June, U.S. inflation remains higher than its peer nations, which include the U.K., Canada, France, and Japan. President Trump's tariffs are partially to blame. But so is hefty capital expenditure by AI giants. Can anything counterbalance all that spending? After that: Kai explains the utility of Beige Book “soft” data, IBM posts mediocre earnings, farmers fret over fertilizer prices, and student borrowers weather five years of policy whiplash.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Why is inflation in the U.S. worse than other developed countries?IBM and other old-school tech companies feel the AI pinchFertilizer costs worry farmers as Iran conflict continuesStudent loan policy changes give borrowers whiplashFor these entrepreneurs, it's all in the details

July 15, 2026 - 6am: Todd Blanche faces scrutiny ahead of Senate confirmation hearing today Trump's big Thursday primetime speech Ossoff goes off on Trump speech Preview: Jay Clayton confirmation hearing for DNI Lisa Rubin previews Blanche confirmation hearing ICE to suspend most vehicle stops after multiple deadly shootings Rattner's charts: Inflation, gas prices hurting Americans  To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:If you want my help...STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20showSCALING a business: see if you qualify here.: https://tombilyeu.com/callGet my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.:https://tombilyeu.com/**********************************************************************If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you.**********************************************************************FOLLOW TOM:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=enTwitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeuYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeuStraight Arrow News: Go to san.com/tombilyeu to get the unbiased truth on the stories that matter, only on the Straight Arrow app. Let's exit the echo chamber.Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodWhatnot: Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order.ATT Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.comShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactIncogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact Quo: Try for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months at https://quo.com/impactPaleovalley: 30 for $36 https://bit.ly/PaleovalleyITNetsuite: Right now, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at https://NetSuite.com/TheoryWelcome to The Tom Bilyeu Show Live. In today's episode, Tom, Drew, and Ryan break down a packed news cycle starting with the biggest CPI inflation drop since Covid and why it may signal a deep economic sickness rather than a recovery. Tom walks through the mechanism behind the drop, the collapse in labor force participation, and what China's refusal to buy oil despite falling prices reveals about a hidden downturn tied to its $18 trillion housing crisis. The conversation connects the global energy picture directly to the Iran war, where Trump has now formally notified Congress that the US is at war, restarting a 60-day clock and shifting toward a doctrine of disproportionate response. The team explores how a softening economy could hand Trump a political win heading into the midterms, and what China's distraction could mean for Taiwan.From there the episode moves into election integrity and immigration, including a Senate seat filled without an election, the bundling of voter ID with a US-Israel military bill, and a heated three-way debate on incentive structures, ballot harvesting, and the populist moment. The crew digs into ICE temporarily suspending most vehicle stops after multiple fatal shootings, including the death of a Colombian man with a work permit who wasn't the target, and what humane, rule-of-law policing should actually look like. The group then has an extended debate on fully AI-generated political ads, network TV, satire, and whether the answer is regulation or a technological trust system. Finally, Japan reclassifies crypto as a financial instrument, banning insider trading and opening the door to spot crypto ETFs, alongside quick hits on Circle's national trust charter, an AI companion from the makers of Genshin Impact, a SpaceX-founded manufacturing startup, and an Indian company breaking China's grip on rare earth magnets.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The "golden economy" is a myth, and the American middle class is footing the bill. Legendary investor Peter Schiff joins me to expose the crony capitalism, out-of-control inflation, and massive government spending crippling our free market. From skyrocketing national debt and the Federal Reserve's endless money-printing to the dangerous AI tech bubble, political insider trading, ill-conceived tariffs, and dumb tax bills, nothing about our current system operates as a true free market. Schiff breaks down why tariffs and debt act as a hidden tax on consumers, how the political elite — including both Democrats and Republicans — are getting incredibly wealthy off government intervention, and why the "inflation tax" is here to stay unless we see massive cuts to government spending. Plus, Peter Schiff reveals the shocking story of how he was allegedly shadow-banned by Fox for simply telling the truth about the economy because Trump was upset.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Liz Peek discusses the strong American economy, noting that small businesses feel relief as tariff threats abate and inflation falls. Lower energy and gasoline prices have cheered investors. Anecdotal evidence from local bookstores and ice cream parlors reinforces a positive outlook for consumer sentiment. (1)1900 READING RR

Stephanie Roth is the Chief Economist at Wolfe Research. In this conversation, we break down whether inflation has peaked, why tariffs, AI chip shortages, and the Iran war are driving short-term prices, and why consumers feel poor despite a resilient economy. We also cover trust in government data, incoming Fed chair Kevin Warsh, the 2026 IPO wave, and the bitcoin and gold debasement trade.==================Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you'll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at http://fountainlife.com/pomp Get $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call at https:www.http://fountainlife.com/pomp==================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates investment strategies across Stocks, Commodities, ETFs and Crypto. Whether you're rotating into AI & Gold, allocating to the S&P 500, or accumulating Bitcoin, Arch Public executes your plan 24/7 without ever taking custody of your assets or funds. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com, and start your FREE automated trading strategy!==================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp==================0:00 - Intro1:03 - Has inflation peaked? Tariffs, AI & energy price drivers5:14 - Why consumers feel poor despite a strong economy7:43 - Can you trust government economic data?13:54 - Housing affordability & why NYC rent hit an all-time high17:43 - Return to office, commutes & worker productivity21:37 - Kevin Warsh takes over the Fed — what's changed?30:57 - Could the Fed cut rates to influence the 2026 election?35:42 - The mega IPO wave & the AI bubble question41:32 - What happened to the bitcoin & gold debasement trade?43:00 - What keeps a chief economist up at night?

We got a better-than-expected June CPI report: Inflation slowed in both the goods and services sectors. But it's hard to say whether that trend will continue and how it might affect the Fed's next inflation rate decision. Also in this episode, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress, so we break down his approach to central bank communication and the Humphrey-Hawkins Act. Plus, an egg price-fixing scheme, the hog lobby, and credit cards.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories from today's episode: Inflation slowed in June. What does that mean for interest rates?Can the hog lobby — and falling prices — get Americans to eat more pork?Cracking open the price-fixing scandal behind rising egg pricesWhat higher credit card spending means for the economyWhy Kevin Warsh is on Capitol Hill today