Podcasts about Inflation

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar breaks down a softer-than-expected U.S. jobs report that boosted stocks and rate-cut hopes, alongside falling unemployment. He highlights tentative signs China may be emerging from deflation, stronger European data, and ongoing uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. In crypto, Bitcoin holds near $90,000 amid ETF outflows, while regulatory developments in South Korea, Florida, and the UK shape the digital asset landscape.

Blue Owl, a name we've gotten to know for all the wrong reasons, has been forced to come clean after getting sued by pretty much every class action securities lawyer in America, not only into admitting there was a wave of withdrawals but also promising to accommodate them over and above what it normally would. Not only does that further confirm the First stage of the credit cycle reverse, it actually sets up the second stage. In this video, we're going to cover where everything in the credit cycle stands and and more importantly what it all means. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Publicly Traded Private-Credit Funds Set for Worst Year Since 2020https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-29/publicly-traded-private-credit-funds-set-for-worst-year-since-2020Bloomberg Blue Owl BDC Allows 17% Redemptions as Investors Storm Exithttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-07/blue-owl-bdc-allows-for-17-redemptions-as-investors-storm-exithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Cape: 33% off your first 6 months with code IMPACT at https://cape.co/impact HomeServe: Help protect your home systems – and your wallet – with HomeServe against covered repairs. Plans start at just $4.99 a month at https://homeserve.com Shopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impact Huel: 15% off with this exclusive offer for New Customers only with code impact at https://huel.com/impact (Minimum $75 purchase). Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpod IT EPISODES: What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is simply insane – new car sales among American households making $75k or less have crashed by 30% since 2019. Car prices soared. Incomes didn't. They can't afford a new car. But it's not just the lowest incomes. Those making between $75k and $150k have bought 7% fewer cars than in 2019. This is a lot more than the K-shaped economy and to call it an affordability crisis seriously understates the problem. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Fox Business Fed Governor Stephen Miran says more than 100 basis points in rate cuts justified this yearhttps://www.foxbusiness.com/media/fed-governor-stephen-miran-says-more-than-100-basis-points-cuts-justified-yearBloomberg Slowing Auto Sales Stoke Concern Over Near-Record Car Priceshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/us-auto-sales-poised-to-slip-as-middle-class-buyers-retreathttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In this episode, we reflect on a rare missed recording and share a series of listener stories that raise broader questions about compassion, responsibility, and civic duty. We examine claims surrounding illegal orders in the military and the role of oaths and institutional accountability before turning to the “foolishness of the week,” including the internet's ability to amplify extremism and reward outrage. We then shift to why Americans consistently believe the economy is doing worse than the data suggests, exploring consumer sentiment, inflation, wages, housing costs, and the lingering psychological effects of pandemic-era stimulus. We close by discussing housing as both shelter and investment, the realities of rent and mortgage affordability, student loan debt, rising expectations, and why economic anxiety persists even in periods of growth. 00:00 Introduction and Overview 00:31 Missing an Episode for the First Time 02:28 Listener Gift and Firefighter Calendar Story 03:52 A Belated Christmas Story of Compassion 07:13 Mark Kelly, Illegal Orders, and Military Oaths 12:40 Foolishness of the Week: Nazi Dating Sites 15:08 The “Village Idiot” Theory and the Internet 18:07 Why Americans Think the Economy Is Terrible 22:08 Consumer Sentiment vs. Economic Data 24:37 Inflation, Wages, and Why It Still Feels Worse 29:27 COVID Stimulus Effects and Income Perception 33:30 Housing Costs, Rent, and Homeownership Myths 37:10 Mortgage Rates, Rent Increases, and Risk 41:04 Housing as Shelter vs. Housing as Investment 45:29 Why People Still Can't Afford Homes 48:33 Social Media, Expectations, and Lifestyle Inflation 51:02 Student Loan Debt and the Real Affordability Crisis 55:14 College Costs, Tradeoffs, and Financial Reality 57:44 Expectations, Advertising, and Economic Anxiety 01:00:40 Why Consumer Sentiment May Never Fully Recover Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Get MORE Coaches Don't Play at our PatreonThank you to our Sponsor: Glow Room BC Laser & Skin spa. Mention coaches for 15% off⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Gurk ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow Gurveen⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Desi Dontdoze Playlist⁠⁠⁠Producer/Audio Engineer ⁠⁠⁠Kyle Bhawan⁠⁠⁠Song "Be Like That" by⁠ ⁠⁠REVAY ⁠⁠⁠⁠----------------------------00:00 Calgary has no water 10:27 100K a year 14:53 Oura ring 19:28 300K bet & sportsnet host 23:10 Venezuela 27:49 Canadian healthcare 43:50 Relationship Inflation  52:04 Married & living separate 1:03:16 Joint family 1:09:45 Moving out tips & Dong Update 

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump's Truth about defense companies, Apple's card moving to JPMorgan, and Constellation reports soft alcohol demand. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Guest: Behnam Ben Taleblu. The Iranian regime faces a critical mass of dissatisfaction, responding with violence against protesters and hospitals rather than addressing grievances. Inflation for food has reached nearly 73 percent, and medical security is nonexistent. Unlike in 2009, opposition is rallying around figures like Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar covers markets retreating as geopolitical tensions interrupt the New Year rally, with Trump's Venezuela oil deal pressuring crude and renewed Greenland rhetoric weighing on U.S. futures. Asia slips on China's export curbs to Japan, while Europe sees inflation ease to the ECB's 2% target. Crypto trades choppy as equities-linked names rally, ETFs progress, banks embrace tokenisation, and Ethereum upgrades boost scalability.

First off — Happy New Year. To kick off the year, this week's episode of the Wealth Formula Podcast is a solo one from me. I spend the episode walking through my outlook for 2026 and sharing a few predictions for how I think this cycle is going to play out. Lately, I keep hearing the same question phrased in different ways. The economy feels tight, but markets are holding up. Growth is coming in stronger than expected, inflation is easing, and yet a lot of the signals people usually rely on just don't seem to be lining up. That disconnect is really the starting point for this episode. Rather than reacting to headlines or making short-term calls, I wanted to step back and talk through the mechanics of what's actually driving this environment — and why it looks so different from the cycles most of us learned about. A lot of it comes down to debt, policy constraints, how capital moves today, and the growing influence of technology. When you start looking at those pieces together, some of the things that feel confusing begin to make a lot more sense. This isn't meant to be alarmist or overly optimistic. It's simply an attempt to frame the environment clearly so you can think about it more intelligently — especially if you're deploying capital or deciding whether it makes sense to sit on the sidelines. If you've felt like the economy and the markets aren't really speaking the same language right now, I think you'll find this episode useful. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com.  You need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have, who own things, who own assets and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Wealth Formula Podcast, and today I am going to do something a little bit different. I’m gonna kind of give you. My perspective, maybe predictions I dare say about, uh, the upcoming year in 2026, how I look at it, what I think, uh, uh, is likely outcome and why. Not that I am any smarter than any of you on this stuff, but I’ve actually kind of sat down and, and thought about, you know, the things that are going on in the macroeconomic. Side of things and, um, put some stuff together and, uh, hopefully you’ll enjoy it. We’ll have, uh, that right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net, the strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from. Your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you’ve borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your invest. Get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back everyone, and, uh, happy New Year to you. I forgot to even say that in the intro. How rude of me. Hopefully you had a great holiday, you had a great Christmas, and you’re bringing in the new year with a vision of health and wealth and PO prosperity and all that stuff. So anyway, let’s talk a little bit about, uh, you know what I am. Kinda looking at for 2026. Now, when you think about, well, what are these predictions and what could they be and all that, um, interest rates, inflation markets, you know, uh, let’s set the foundation for how I’m thinking about it, because everything else really kind of builds on it. And the most important thing to understand is that debt. Is really now I think the main character in the economy. I know we, people have been talking about this for a very long time, but I think, I think the debt issue is really, really becoming something that cannot be ignored, and I’ll get into that in a while. Obviously, I’m not saying that inflation and interest rates don’t matter. They matter enormously. Uh, those are the things that people actually feel, right? Higher prices, higher mortgage rates, higher insurance costs. What I’m saying is that the level of debt now determines really how decisions on those things are made from policy makers. You know, how do they respond to inflation and interest rates, recessions market stress. What debt does is it actually kinda limits the range of choices around how policy makers react to all these things. So once you see that, the behavior of the economy starts to, I think, make a lot more sense. So let’s start with. Sovereign debt, and I’m gonna start really basic here because the question is, you know, what exactly is sovereign debt? Okay. And sovereign debt is the money a government owes, okay? In the US it exists because the government consistently spends more than it collects in taxes, and that gap is called the deficit. When that happens year after year, you have an accumulation of debt. Now, when debt is low, it’s, it’s pretty manageable, right? But when debt gets very large, it starts to influence policy decisions, and that’s where we are right now. Uh, here’s the key mechanic that I think most people don’t really think about, right? Governments don’t pay off debt the way you and I, you know, pay off our debt, like mortgage or whatever. They always refinance it, right? So when the US government borrows money, it issues bonds. That’s how it does, those bonds have maturity dates, and when you buy a bond, you’re, you know, you’re loaning the government money. So when a bond matures, the government owes that principle back to you. Right? So that’s, that’s kind of how well we talk about, we talk about debt, but the government doesn’t save money over time to pay off that bond. Like, I mean, that’s the way you would think about it for you and me, right? I mean, at some point you’re like, ah, I really need to pay off this debt. I’m just gonna pay it off with this money that I saved. Instead, what they do is when a bond comes due, it issues a new bond and uses the money from that new bond to pay back the old one. Okay. Now, if that sounds familiar, uh, to you, it’s because it’s pretty much what we would call in plain English refinancing, right? Now imagine though, the government issued a bond a few years ago when interest rates were near zero. That bond matures today, interest rates are much higher, right to pay off the old bond. The government issues a new one at today’s higher rates. So the debt doesn’t disappear, it just becomes more expensive to carry, right? I mean, it’s just like you got a mortgage, you know you had a, a great rate, but you only got it for seven years and all of sudden you gotta refinance it. Gosh, all of a sudden that rate went really higher and your payments are much higher, and the debt payments going up, you know, for the government, what adds to that deficit? It’s a really, really vicious cycle. Now, take that process and multiply it across trillions of dollars of debt. Now you can start seeing why interest rates matter so much in a high debt system. Now, what makes this especially important right now is that for over the last several years, the US issued a very large amount of short-term debt. Short-term debt matures quickly, and that means large portions of government debt. Come due every year and have to be refinanced at whatever the interest rate exists at the time. So even if deficit stock growing tomorrow, which they won’t, the government would still need smooth functioning financial markets just to keep refinancing what it al what already exists now. This is why the economy has become so sensitive to interest rates, liquidity and confidence. Higher interest rates increase the cost of refinancing, right? We’ve mentioned that already. And that pushes deficits higher and forces even more borrowing. So I mentioned liquidity. What is that? Well, liquidity is about how easily money moves through the system. When liquidity is good, bonds are easily absorbed. Banks lend markets function normally, and when liquidity dries up, refinancing becomes fragile. That stress. Stress in the market spreads quickly. And then finally, confidence I mentioned too. Why does confidence matter? Well, confidence matters because investors need to believe that the system is gonna hold together. When confidence weakens, guess what happens? Well, what would happen if you think about it with a loan, a higher risk loan? While investors demand higher yields like refinance, it becomes even more expensive. And problems compound fast. Now, this is why Pol policymakers are extremely uncomfortable with high borrowing costs, reduced lending, falling asset values, and deep recessions. Recessions, by the way, don’t make debt easier to manage. They make it harder by reducing tax revenue and worsening debt ratios. Now that brings me to a, something that I am feeling sort of back and forth with. Um. You know, a listener who sent me some commentary about, you know, the fear of going back to 1970s, eighties style interest rates. But the thing is that I just don’t think that comparison works, and here’s why. Okay, so in the 1970s, the US had far less debt. Interest rates could go very high without threatening the government’s ability to refinance itself. Now today, with debt much larger relative to the economy, very high rates don’t just fight inflation. They stress the entire financial structure, right? You can’t just say, oh, we’re gonna make super high rates because the cost of all that debt the government has is gonna be extraordinarily expensive. Now, that doesn’t mean that rates can’t rise. It means policymakers have far less tolerance for how high and how long rates can stay elevated. It’s a completely different system from the 1970s and eighties. So I think trying to put things into that context is probably not, um, not a, a good way to think about it. So why am I fo focusing on this right now? Uh, instead of a few years ago, because again, we stu we didn’t suddenly become a high debt economy this year. So what changed? Well timing a massive amount of debt that was issued at very low interest rates, as I mentioned before, is now maturing and being refinanced at much higher rates, and that shift is no longer theoretical. It’s happening in real time. Last year, much of that low uh, rate, debt was still in place. Interest costs hadn’t fully reset, but going into 2026, they have no, I, I keep talking about, you know, how much we’re paying an interest, right? Because again, that’s a big difference between now and the 1970s when you could have, you know, you didn’t have as much debt so you could pay more interest on it. Right now, the US is now spending roughly a trillion dollars a year just on interest. Her perspective, right? I mean, what’s a trillion dollars? Uh, what does that even mean for the normal person? Well, for Perce perspective, that’s the defense budget. $1 trillion. It’s more than Medicare, more than most major federal programs. And the thing is that money doesn’t do anything, right. It doesn’t create growth. It just services past borrowing. And this is the point where debt stops being background noise, kind of an annoyance that people just say, well, we’ll kick it to the next generation. It start starts actively shaping, uh, policy decisions because it’s, it’s a thing that you gotta pay for. You gotta keep paying for it. So the takeaway I want you to carry forward is simple. We now live in a system where policymakers don’t have the luxury of letting things break when debt is low. Governments can tolerate deep recessions like you saw in the seventies and eighties and long recoveries. When debt is high, they can’t because even small shocks can just really get outta control quickly. And that’s the framework I think, uh, that I’m using as we move into interest rates, inflation, and what all this means for markets going into 2026. So let’s talk about interest rates. You’ve heard me say that I think that interest rates are gonna come down. Um, they’re gonna continue to tick down a little bit. I don’t think a lot, but I do think there’ll probably be at least one more rate cut. I think, you know, you’re probably gonna have some, um, uh, some lowering in the 10 year and, and the bond market in general. Uh, but interest rates are not gonna go back to 2010, right? They just aren’t. And. The 2010s were not normal. There were a very specific period created by very specific conditions, right? Inflation was persistently low, uh, but just wouldn’t go up. Globalization, uh, push prices down. Capital was abundant. Debt levels, well, they were high, but they’re rising, but they hadn’t become what they are now. And because of that, central banks could hold rates near zero without much consequence. That environment, unfortunately, does not exist now. So today, debt is much higher. Inflation risk is real again, and investors expect to be compensated for lending money long term. So even when rates decline from current levels, they do not return, uh, they will not return to where people, uh, anchor them psychologically. If they’re thinking about the 2000 tens, they’re gonna settle higher. Within the 2000 tens baseline, you see policymakers are kind of stuck if rates, uh, say too high for too long. We mentioned this before. Refinancing government debt becomes increasingly expensive. Interest costs rise, deficits, widen, and then you get that financial stress that’s spreads through the credit markets. But if rates are pushed too low for too long, borrowing accelerates. And that’s. When inflation resurfaces and confidence in the currency weakens, so then that’s the tug of war. So policymakers, uh, you know, they, they can no longer choose between high rates and low rates. They’re gonna be choosing how to manage, uh, the trade-offs, right? So what’s gonna happen is that you’re gonna see that rates are gonna move within a range. Uh, they come down when something breaks, they move back up when inflation pressures recurrent. Um, that’s why volatility matters more than the exact. Level of rates going forward, in my opinion. So we’re, we’re not returning to free money. We are also not headed to a permanent 1970 style high rate world. What we are doing is entering a time where borrowing costs matter. Again, refinancing is not guaranteed, and rate swings are part of the system, and that naturally leads to the question of inflation. So once you understand why rates. You know, don’t go back to the 2010. The next question becomes, uh, well, if policymakers can’t keep rates high for long and they can’t push them back to zero either, then what are they actually trying to ac accomplish? Well, the answer is that, that the goal is kind of shifted for decades. Economic policy was focused on disinflation, um, you know, pushing inflation lower and lower. Over time, uh, and inflation was actually treated as a failure, and that made sense. In a world with lower debt in a high debt world, that logic sort of breaks down, right? Deflation, which is actually falling prices, increases the real value of debt. Think about that for a moment. Like just in terms of. You know, you have a mortgage and you know, sometime, you know, your parents might have like a 30 year mortgage or something like that, that they’ve had for 25 years. They’ve been paying it off and it’s great. But the bigger thing to notice is the amount of money that they borrowed is actually very small in real world dollars because it’s, you know, 25 years later. See, inflation is bad when it’s, you know, you’re dealing with it, but inflation is. Good at one other thing, which is it’s good at eroding debt. It will make, uh, the amount of the value of the, you know, the actual money that you owe on debt lower over time. So that’s why you can’t have deflation, right? You can’t have deflation because that increases the real value of the debt. It discourages spending, slows growth and makes refinancing harder. So in today’s system, deflation is way, way more dangerous than moderate inflation. And so because of that inflation really isn’t something that I think is quite as important that has to be eliminated at all costs. That, you know, you have to be right at 2%, which is, you know, kind of what the, the fed his, his target is, right? Instead, what you gotta do is you gotta manage it. Of course, that doesn’t mean you want runaway inflation. What they wanna do is have enough inflation to keep nominal growth positive and prevent debt burdens from become heavier again. Why? What do I mean by that? You gotta have enough inflation to erode the debt that we have, right? So this is why that 2% inflation target should be understood. As, you know, kind of aspirational, but not absolute because having a little higher inflation, yeah, it hurts people. It’s, uh, it hurts people on a day-to-day basis, but actually helps with that. So even at, uh, you know, inflation sell a bit higher than, than, than the, you know, 2% fed target say it’s 4%, it’s actually eroding, uh, you know, it is eroding purchasing power, but it’s also eroding debt. It’s, it’s stabilizing debt dynamics. From the system’s perspective, of course that’s helpful. But for us, we’re paying for things on a day-to-day basis to see the cost of eggs and all that. It’s, it’s frustrating, right? And that tension between system stability and personal cost, it’s one of the defining features of the economy heading into 2026. So when you see policymakers tolerate inflation, uh, longer. Then you think they should or step in quickly When markets kind of wobble, it’s not confusion or incompetence, it’s actually constraint because debt limits the available choices. Rates are managed within a range. Inflation is guided and not eliminated. Now put those together and you get the environment we’re moving into, which is an economy where markets can look. Resilient, even while people feel stretched, right? I mean, that’s kinda what we’re feeling. Everybody’s like, oh, these markets are doing fantastic, you know? But then, you know, you look at consumer confidence, it goes down. It’s been going down every month. This is an environment where asset prices recover faster than wages, and we’re understanding how policy reacts becomes a real advantage. So that’s kind of my macro setup for 2026. Um, you know, with that framework, we can start looking into the first prediction I’ll make. And again, these are not, you know, crazy predictions. Uh, they are just generalized things that I think you’re gonna see. So, like the first one is that the markets will stop being reliable proxy for the economy. You could argue that’s already happened, right? Markets in the economy kind of stopped correlating. We saw it after the financial crisis, right? We saw it very clearly even during COVID. The decoupling itself is not new. What’s new is that that decoupling is no longer temporary. It’s become the baseline that’s become the new normal. Uh, for most of modern history people had a fairly reliable mental model, right? You probably do. If you grew up in the eighties and nineties, uh, as a kid or whatever, when the economy felt bad, layoffs, we growth falling in con incomes, markets usually reflected the pain. Right. Sometimes there was a gap. Sometimes markets recovered a little earlier, but eventually things kinda re converged. The economy healed. We just caught up in the markets and lived experience kinda lined up. Now that’s the model that most people still have in their heads, and that’s why so many people feel so confused right now. I mean, I feel confused by it. So what’s changed going into 2026? You know, it, it is, it’s structural Now. We’re no longer living in a system where policy intervenes only during emergencies. We are, uh, in a system where policy is always on, debt is permanently high, rates are actively managed, inflation is tolerated rather than eliminated. And as a result of that, markets aren’t really necessarily responding primarily to how. The economy feels to people they’re responding. Uh, you know, it’s responding to refinancing needs. Liquidity management. Uh, confidence preservation. That’s a very different signal. COVID is the clearest example of that ship, but it’s, it’s important to understand it correctly. So in 2020, the economy was literally shut down, right? Unemployment exploded. Uh, small businesses were collapsing, right? Like, this is COVID and yet markets bottom quickly. We saw that and then bam. All time highs, even though life kind of felt terrible for a lot of people. And that wasn’t because the economy was healthy, it was because policy overwhelmed fundamentals. And at the time that felt extraordinary. It felt very different. Like this doesn’t make any sense. What’s different now is that we’re still using the same playbook but with out in obvious crisis. So intervention is no longer reactive. It’s, you know, uh, it’s preventative. So what do I predict for 2026? Well, markets are gonna stop being a reliable proxy for economic health. Uh, you, you people can just stop talking about that. Like it, like it, it means anything anymore. Markets going to increasingly reflect how constrained policymakers are and how much liquidity is in the system, and how aggressively risk is being managed. They’re not gonna, the markets are not gonna tell you. About affordability, wage pressure, or whether life feels easier or harder for people. Right. Those are completely gonna, those are, it’s just a standard thing now that those are uncorrelated and the gap is not, uh, abnormal anymore. It’s. The operating environment. So what do you do with that information? Well, for an individual investor, this environment requires a real mindset shift, right? You can’t rely on your gut anymore. You can’t say, man, I feel like this economy doesn’t feel good. So the market’s gonna look at the, I mean, you, you, you know, a lot of people feel like the economy doesn’t feel good to them because of inflation, because of what happened with interest rates and all that stuff, right? But look it, you’ve got. Record breaking, uh, stock market numbers. You can’t rely on your gut anymore. Your gut is telling you the economy feels bad. For many people, that’s absolutely true. Costs are high. Again, things feel tight, and the instinct is to wait to sit in cash. To assume markets would reflect that pain, but that instinct used to work. And in this system it doesn’t because markets are no longer pricing in how the economy feels. They’re pricing policy response. Liquidity and constraints. So if you wait for the economy to feel good before you act, it’s gonna be way too late. So instead of asking, does the economy feel weak, you need to start asking different questions. You need to ask how constrained policymakers are, how quickly liquidity will return if markets wob on it, and where capital tends to flow first when policy steps sit. In other words. You gotta start really thinking about investing, right? Like you gotta, like right now. Now I’ve talked, I’ve beat this over many times before, but you know, you have, if you’re, if you’re saving money right now and you’re looking and you are wondering what to do, look for things that are on sale now. I spent real estate’s on sale right now. Right? Get your money into the markets one way or another. That’s what I would say. Whatever it is that you want to invest in. Don’t let your money just erode because this lack of correlation is, it’s a really, really important thing and it’s, it’s gonna continue to happen and you know what else is gonna happen Because of that, you’re gonna see an increasing widening up the wealth gap. People whose income is tied primarily to wages are, are gonna experience that inflation directly, right? Their money’s trapped in the real economy where costs rise faster than income. But investors on the other hand, have an opportunity to participate in the markets that are supported by this sort of unnatural infrastructure that I just mentioned, right? As asset prices are gonna continue going up. Now, I’m not here to judge whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, I’m just telling you how it’s functions. So the investor class increasingly benefits from asset appreciation, right? Early access to liquidity. While lower income groups often can participate in that upside. Even as their cost of living rise, because they’re not in the markets, they’re not, they don’t own assets. So again, you have to stop, you know, using how the economy feels is your primary investing signal. If you wanna protect and grow your wealth in this environment, you need to understand how policy reacts, how you know liquidity moves, how assets behave when the system is under constraint. And in other words, uh, you know. Frankly, you just need to be part of the winning class, which is the investor class. Alright, so that’s kind of, uh, hopefully that made sense to you. Here’s another prediction for you, and this is probably more related to some of the things that we talk about usually, but I’ll say that multifamily and commercial real estate are going to finish their washout, and the window is gonna start to really close again. I’ve talked about this. Before, you’ve probably heard me say this, but let’s talk about multifamily and commercial real estate again, because you know, this audience doesn’t need just theory. You’ve already lived through the pain or the past two years you’ve seen deals blow up, capital calls go out, refinancings fail. So the real question going on in 2026 is not whether real estate breaks. It’s already, it already did. It already did. The real question is how much longer this phase lasts and what replaces it. My view is that 2025 into early 2026, um, represents the final phase of this unwind in the beginning of stabilization. I’m not predicting an immediate boom, not a return to 2021 by any means, but the end of obvious distress. So what’s happened already from 2022 to 2024? Multifamily and commercial real estate absorbed the fastest rate shock in modern history. Many of you lived through that. I lived through that. It’s painful. Debt costs doubled or tripled. Cap rates moved hundreds of basis points. You know, bridge debt structures broke, uh, refinancing assumptions collapsed. Now, a lot of the deals, I mean, I would say most of the deals, uh, uh, that, you know, kind of imploded, uh, shared the same DNA, you know, peaking price, uh, purchases, uh, during peak prices in 2021, early 2022. Uh, you know. Floating rate thin or negative cash flow based on, you know, the rates at the time. Maybe it was positive business plans that were really dependent on refi and rent growth. Um, those deals though, have largely already defaulted, recapitalize, or, you know, they’re being quietly handed back. And that matters because markets don’t keep breaking the same wave forever. If, if you’re seeing right now and if you’re in our investor club, you are. 30% discounts on a regular basis. Right? On a regular basis compared to the peak. Don’t assume that’s gonna last. That this is the key point I wanna make very clearly. If you’re looking at multifamily or commercial deals today that are trade trading at that 30% below where they were a couple years ago, you should not assume that window stays opening. Definitely because the level of discount there, uh, the level of discount exists because. Dried up liquidity, uh, because of that violent rate reset, uh, uncertainty. But here’s the thing, markets don’t stay frozen forever and as soon as pricing stabilizes, even at higher cap rates, which are going to be higher than they were, because you’re not gonna see interest rates down at zero, capital is gonna start to move again. And stabilization doesn’t require rates to go back to zero. It just requires some level of predictability. So here’s the sequence of what happens first, you know, the distress slows, uh, you see less and less defaults, and then slowly but surely cap rates stop expanding, right? That alone brings back buyers. Then as rates drift mo lower and volatility declines, lenders reenter selectively, debt becomes a billable again. It’s not cheap. It’s definitely usable and that brings more liquidity. When I say liquidity, in this context, I’m talking about just more deals getting done. And once liquidity returns, cap rates don’t stay wide forever. They compress, right? It’s competition. And again, when they compress, they’re not gonna go back to 2021 levels, but enough to meaningfully lift asset values from distressed pricing. This can happen faster than people expect, right? People underestimate the fact that there is an enormous amount of capital sitting on the sidelines right now in money market funds, short term treasuries, private capital, waiting for clarity. That capital isn’t, you know, permanent. The moment investors believe that rates of peak, that prices of stabilized downside risks is contained, that money starts to chase yield. When it does the transition from, nobody wants this, everyone wants exposure again, can happen surprisingly fast. In other words, I’m not saying I think this will happen in 26, but the shift from a market that is on sale, which I’ve described it as to a market that is starting to look a little frothy, can really be just a couple of years. And in that situation, I’d rather be a net seller, right? You wanna be accumulating. During this phase of for sale so that you can sell in froth. So what this means is that the market is, you know, uh, is not a market to wait for everything to feel perfect, because by the time it does, the obvious discounts are gonna be gone. And if you wait for perfect clarity, you’re gonna be competing, you competing with institutional capital, with large private funds and, and, and yield hungry money coming outta cash. The opportunity is not assuming distress lasts forever. It is. It’s in recognizing when the market is transitioning from forced selling, which is what is happening even now to price discovery. So ultimately, the prediction is this multifamily and commercial real estate, that that washout is completed in 2026 and the window created by distress really starts to close. Deep discounts don’t persist. Once market stabilized, which I think is what’s gonna happen, and then I think you’re gonna start to see a shift. You’re gonna start to see more deals, more liquidity, and that’s gonna return faster than people expect. In other words, this is gonna be the end of, you know, sort of this bargain basement, you know, panic pricing. And once real assets stabilize and liquidity returns, attention inevitably turns, uh, to the currency, those assets are priced in. Which brings us to the prediction number three. That dollar, okay, the dollar doesn’t collapse, but it does continue to erode. It slowly leak, right? Let’s talk about the dollar, ’cause you hear about this all the time, right? A nausea, you hear the, the weakening of the dollar. Um, this is one of those topics that where people tend to jump to extremes. You know, on one side you hear the dollar is about to collapse. On the other side you hear the dollar’s strong and everything’s fine. I think, um, the truth is somewhere in, in the middle. And my prediction for 2026 is simple. Um, again, the dollar doesn’t really explode. It doesn’t get replaced. It can just continues to erode slowly but surely. And that’s how reserve currencies actually behave when debt gets high. Right. So why no collapse, right? Because you got like people out there, uh, worried about the collapse of the US dollar. The US dollar is gonna remain dominant, not because it’s perfect, but because there’s no real alternative at scale. There just isn’t. Okay? There’s no other currency with markets as deep, as liquid and as widely used for trade debt and collateral. So, you know, reserve currencies, you know, you hear about the, the worry about us being the reserve currency. Well, reserve currencies don’t disappear overnight. They erode gradually, but they don’t disappear overnight. And that erosion shows up not as a crash, but again as persistent inflation, right? It’s rising, you know, real asset prices, which is again, where you wanna be, and a slow loss of purchasing power over time. Again, that brings us back to the whole issue of debt we were talking about, right? So in a highly indebted system, policymakers are not incentivized to aggressively defend the currency at all costs, right? So very high interest rates might strengthen the dollar in the short term, but they also make debt harder to service and financial stress worse, right? So instead of choosing strength or collapse. Um, you know, policy drifts towards tolerance, right? Inflation is allowed to run a little hotter than people expect, because again, it’s gonna erode that debt. The currency weakens slowly, therefore, rather than violently, right? Again, currency weakening. It’s that, it, it’s so entwined with this idea of inflation because debt becomes easier to manage in real terms. And one of the things I hear, and I’ve been sort of in these conversations back and forth with, um. At least one of you out there, uh, in, in emails is that, you know, I hear, uh, that, that, that there’s a, a serious problem for interest rates because of, you know, China, uh, selling US treasuries. And because of that you might get the collapse of the dollar. In fact, in this conversation, it was not only about China, but also Europe. Which, you know, I hadn’t actually heard anybody mention that before, but I guess that’s out there in the ecosystem and some of the newsletters. Now, all that sounds scary, but it really misunderstands how the system actually works. What exactly happens when someone or a country sells treasuries? Well, they don’t dis, they, they don’t just destroy the dollars. What they’re doing is they just swap $1 asset for another, right? The dollars don’t even lead the system. They change hands. So this idea of China selling off all it t trade, well, China’s been, uh, reducing its treasury holdings for years and the dollar hasn’t collapsed. The market absorbed it because treasuries are the deepest, most liquid market in the world. And then this idea of Europe, of of Europe actually dumping treasuries because, you know, they’re not happy with Donald Trump and what he’s doing in Ukraine and all that, that would be an absolute nightmare for, for Europe. That would hurt their own economy. That’s the last thing that an indebted government wants. So foreign selling, yeah, sure it’s gonna move yields, but it, it’s not gonna implode the dollar. But the reality of the, uh, erosion of the dollar is real. I don’t think anybody questions that anymore, and I think that is another reason that you need to be buying. Real assets. You need to be buying equity. You need to be on the side of the investor class. Okay? That’s, that’s how you combat all of this. So the real takeaway here ultimately is that, you know, it isn’t, uh, to abandon the dollar, right? It isn’t. It’s, it’s just to stop pretending that holding cash is neutral. It’s not, it, most of your wall suits and assets that, that can’t adjust. You know, they can’t grow as, you know, as, as asset prices grow, then you’re making a bet on currency stability that literally no one believes is, is going to be the base standard anymore. Everybody knows, every economist, every country, every everywhere knows that these currencies are eroding. You don’t freak out about the dollar, but don’t, don’t, don’t be like heavily in dollars. Start getting into the markets. Alright, well, you know, I’m talking a lot about esoteric macro stuff, but let’s kind of get into some stuff that you might think is fun, more fun maybe. Okay. You, a lot of you are into Bitcoin. Well, I think that, you know, Bitcoin is gonna continue to mature. And the next look, leg up looks like, you know, because of more adoption, not because of hype, which isn’t maybe not as, as, as fast and violent, but it’s, it’s, it’s a lot more predictable. For those of you who are still unfortunately listening to the likes of Peter Schiff about Bitcoin, you gotta stop doing that because Bitcoin is not tulips. Right? A lot of people still talk about it like it’s a fad that could just vanish. We’re long past that phase. Bitcoin is, is, is a $2 trillion asset and in the history of the world, there has never been a $2 trillion asset that went to zero. Is it volatile? Yeah, it is. It can absolutely continue to be wildly volatile, but you’re not going to zero. And my prediction is not overly crazy. It’s just that. Bitcoin is going to continue to increase in price, but it’s not become, not because of speculative, uh, you know, because it’s a speculative trade anymore, right? I think it’s because of adoption. Uh, adoption is going to become the real meaningful driver of market capitalization. So what do I mean by that? It just means more people are seeing it as a real asset, and it has to become, when it becomes a real asset class, everyone has to have some of it. Every major institution has to have some of it because it’s an its own asset class. And when they do that, it just drives up the entire market capitalization of that asset. And when you have an asset that has a finite amount, which in the case of Bitcoin, there will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. You have constant adoption, constant slow, but persistent growth in market capitalization, the asset has to become more expensive. Now, what do I mean by this adoption? Well, places that you would never think in a million years, a few years ago, that that would be buying Bitcoin or you know, ETFs, B to Bitcoin ETFs are doing. So Harvard. Harvard is a great example. Because it’s not, it’s not crypto influencer, right? It’s actually one of the most conservative, brand sensitive pools of capital in the world. But their endowment management, uh, disclosed roughly 443, uh, million dollars in its position in BlackRock, uh, BlackRock, iShares Bitcoin, Bitcoin Trust, which is ibi for those of you who, who, uh, don’t know, that’s how you can just go to your New York Stock Exchange and, and buy. Bitcoin ETFs with ibit. Now, whether you love this whole Bitcoin idea or hate it or whatever, that’s a signal that is increasingly treated like a portfolio asset. It’s not a fringe experiment, and it’s not only universities. Uh, institutional comfort is it’s just there, right? Um, custody, uh, custody regulated vehicles, positioning, size, risk controls, those kinds of things are all become part of the Bitcoin uh, environment. Many countries are already holding meaningful amounts of Bitcoin. Uh, even the US has, there’s a, there is a formalized Bitcoin reserve. Now we aren’t actively buying it, but here’s an interesting thing with Bitcoin, you can, when it is, uh, the way that the US is accumulating Bitcoin is through seizures. Alright? Bad guy gets caught. His boats, his house and his Bitcoin get, uh, confiscated. So the US will sell the house, they will sell the gold, they will sell the boats, but they will keep the Bitcoin. What does that tell you? You know? And, and there’s a lot of nations that are actually openly holding and, and buying Bitcoin. I mentioned the US China. This always seems to be, uh, you know, anti Bitcoin. Well, they actually own quite a bit the UK, Ukraine, Bhutan, El Salvador. Bottom line is there’s a big change in narrative, right? That this is a real asset. So this is something that, you know, even if it’s 1% of a major, uh, institution’s assets or less than that, or whatever, it’s part of it. And that adoption alone can move prices from, from here. And that’s what I think a lot of people miss because they’re like, well, you already had a big move and you know, instead a hundred, it’s 80 or 90 or a hundred, whatever. It’s, it’s not going much better, bigger than that. Well, Bitcoin is, is actually really small relative to global pools of capital. So at this stage, adoption alone. Not even the crazy mania of the past can make a non-trivial increase in market capitalization and therefore a mark, you know, a non-trivial increase in the actual price of Bitcoin. All it’s gonna take, and you’re gonna see this, you’re gonna see more endowments, you’re gonna see more sovereign wealth pool, pensions, mod model portfolios, all they guys daisy side, when you know, even with a small allocation. It doesn’t take too much to overwhelm the available float because Bitcoin is scarce and a lot of it’s held tightly. So as far as Bitcoin goes, what do I think is gonna happen? I believe all time highs are gonna get challenged. They’re gonna get broken again in 2026, not because again, everyone’s suddenly becoming a crypto maximas, but because adoptions could just gonna continue to grow. The wild card, I should say, is that the US moving from, we hold. What we seized in terms of Bitcoin to actively acquiring reserves could be enormous catalyst. And there is a lot of talk about this right now. Um, if the market ever believes that the US is a consistent buyer, even in a constrained budget neutral way, that changes the psychology fast. And in that scenario, I think 200,000 plus, uh, $200,000 plus Bitcoin by the end of 2026 becomes very plausible. Zooming out. I’ve said this before, you may think I’m crazy, but again, because of adoption, I think that Bitcoin is at a million dollars five to seven years from now. So what does that mean for you? Well, I mean, I think at the end of the day, if you don’t own some, you might want to, I’m not gonna give you financial advice, but again, just like Harvard’s doing it, you know, major, major endowments are saying, well. You know, maybe we’ll just buy, like, you know, 2% of that, 2% of our, our, uh, endowment will be made of something like that, right? Uh, you know, it’s just even a very small amount, but exposure to it makes a lot of sense. So I think that is something to highly consider if you are still on zero when it comes to Bitcoin. All right, now here’s my last, uh, prediction. You may have heard me talking about this before as well, that AI becomes a deflationary force that policy makers finally wake up to. And I think this is actually one of the most important and misunderstood economic developments, um, that is currently already out there. But I think it’s, it’s gonna be really recognized. By the end of 2026. Okay. Artificial intelligence is gonna stop being just a tech story, and it’s gonna become a macroeconomic story. I think that by the end of 2026, artificial intelligence is clearly, uh, you know, it’s clearly, um, going to be boosting corporate earnings while beginning to materially reshape the labor force. Um, and what’s gonna happen is that central banks and policymakers are gonna start treating it. Is a genuinely deflationary force over the next several years, and they’re gonna try to have to figure out what to do about it. And again, going back to our earlier conversation, because deflation is really a real problem for a country with an enormous amount of debt. So let’s get a little bit into the whole deflationary uh, conversation. So artificial intelligence at its core is a productivity machine, right? It allows companies to produce more. Without, with fewer inputs, fewer hours, fewer people, fewer stakes and productivity always shows up in profits before it shows up in everyday life. Right now, lower cost per transaction, faster execution, fewer people doing the same amount of work, widening margins without price increases. That’s the tell. That’s when profits rise without raising prices, something deflationary is happening underneath the surface. The biggest impact there is the labor market, right? It’s gonna be impossible to ignore. And this is where the conversation really shifts because artificial intelligence doesn’t need to eliminate jobs outright to matter. It only needs to reduce the number of people required to do it, right? So you’re thinking the labor markets, you’re gonna see a lot of this. You’re gonna see more slowing in hiring. Um, even while productivity expectations rise, and I think by late 2026, the public conversation is gonna change from will artificial intelligence affects jobs someday to why aren’t companies hiring the way they used to? And of course, that’s when people are gonna start paying attention and they’re gonna notice it’s deflationary because it’s going to be because artificial intelligence is gonna push down the cost. Of services, administration, customer support, research, and eventually decision making itself. That’s why it’s, it’s deflationary, it’s structural, right? Just think of all those things you can do for so much cheaper. That is what deflation is, right? And again, we mentioned before deflation is not something central banks are comfortable with because of debt and because debt heavy systems rely on nominal growth. Deflation makes debt heavier in real terms as opposed to what we said before, which is that inflation actually erodes debt. And that is a, a very, very challenging problem. And by 2026, I think you’re gonna hear a lot about this, you know, policy problem that we have. Which is innovation versus, you know, deflation. You make a lot of money, but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide finance. Financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concepts here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Alright, well, so that’s basically it for my, uh, predictions. And I know I’ve kind of. Off on many different tangents, so hopefully it’s useful to you at least to start thinking and doing some of your own research. Bottom line is this, I mean, as, as a investor, what can you do? I think the big story here is understanding that, um, you need to be out of the dollar and into the investor class because that that widening gap between those who have. Who own things, who own assets, and those who do not is gonna continue to widen. And so, you know, my best, uh, won’t call it advice, but my own belief is that it is a, it is a very good time to look around and look for assets that are underpriced because I think everything is going to expand and it’s gonna ex expand. Uh, and you don’t wanna be caught, you know, on the, uh, dollar side of that equation. So. That’s it for me this week on Wealth Formula Podcast. Happy New Year. I’ll see you next week. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheel Wright and Ken McElroy. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss ADP Employment, Rubio's push to buy Greenland, and Mobileye acquiring Mentee. Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Inflation in Iran is completely out of control with leaders possibly fleeing to Moscow as the country faces a revolution from its people and speculation suggesting Cuba on the verge of collapse. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Join Jim and Greg for the Tuesday 3 Martini Lunch as they break down massive anti-regime protests in Iran and whether the ruling mullahs are finally in real danger, the death of a Republican congressman that tightens the GOP's already slim House majority, and the absurd congressional quest of George Conway.First, they cheer on the widespread protests erupting across Iran after the country's currency suffered a staggering collapse in value. Jim and Greg examine whether this latest wave of unrest has a better chance of toppling the regime than past uprisings, or if the theocratic government will once again respond with brutal crackdowns to stay in power.Next, they mourn the passing of Republican California Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a strong conservative who died at the age of 65. Combined with Monday's resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, House Republicans are left with an even narrower majority. Jim and Greg discuss how that complicates life for GOP leadership and criticize lawmakers who walk away from their seats mid-term for reasons other than serious health issues or scandal.Next, they mourn the passing of Republican California Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a strong conservative who died at the age of 65. Combined with Monday's resignation of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, House Republicans are left with an even narrower majority. Jim and Greg discuss how that complicates life for GOP leadership and scold lawmakers who resign in the middle of their terms for reasons other than failing health or a scandal.Finally, they weigh in on the chaotic Democratic scramble to succeed Rep. Jerry Nadler in New York's 12th Congressional District in Manhattan. Jim and Greg roll their eyes as Lincoln Project alum George Conway attempts to carpetbag his way into Congress, while Jack Schlossberg, grandson of John F. Kennedy,  jumps into the race based on social media controversy and being a Kennedy.Please visit our great sponsors:Visit https://CoastPay.com/3ML to get free gas for a whole day. Terms apply.Try QUO for free, PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you visit https://Quo.com/3ML Stop putting off doctors' appointments—go to https://Zocdoc.com/3ML to find and instantly book a top-rated doctor today!New episodes every weekday. 

Commodities are going nuts right now, with copper now parabolic joining silver on the crazy train. Gold is lagging behind both, which is not a good sign for each's ability to stay on the upside. Meanwhile, at the complete other end of the commodity spectrum is oil, not just in terms of prices but key spreads in Middle East markets. One of those just flipped for the first time in years, signaling growing worries about global demand.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------What is a Eurodollar University membership? It's where understanding the monetary world isn't a mystery, it's a method.If you're serious about your financial education and want clarity in a world of volatility and massive uncertainty, you're in the right place. Mainstream education has left so many massive gaps on the most foundational concepts, making sense of everything is practically impossible otherwise. With our memberships, we'll fill in everything that you've been missing. Join us: https://web.eurodollar-university.com/eurodollar-vsl-pagehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Loss of momentum isn't just happening in the US, it is very well synchronized globally with practically the same pattern showing up everywhere. Updates from neighbors Canada and Mexico show a deepening downturn at the end of last year, especially Mexico putting up its deepest contraction since April. Over in Europe, Germany fell back bringing Italy down with it. Plus, global bellwether Switzerland experienced its own “unexpectedly” sharp setback. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------SPG Canada Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/78c6ddcb80cf4ef0b14fc9dc3c091c86SPG Mexico Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/47f22c8de61b4d54965a25c3d3c417caSPG Germany Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/bd3c462f68704c5ea1613f2fce2879fdSPG Italy Manuhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/be3b992b4ebb4b4db3030abaff5e0bc5Bloomberg Swiss Manufacturing Contracted More Than Anticipated in Decemberhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-05/swiss-manufacturing-contracted-more-than-anticipated-in-decemberhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A new poll conducted in Michigan by the Glengariff Group,commissioned by the Detroit Regional Chamber, reveals that 76% of registeredvoters in the state report they are paying more for groceries this yearcompared to last. Additionally, 68% are facing higher utility bills, and 60%are experiencing increased costs for car and home insurance. Inflation remainsa key concern for voters, with 42.8% believing the state's economy is headed inthe wrong direction. The most commonly cited reasons for this sentiment includeinflation and rising costs of goods, the lack of good jobs or highunemployment, and low wages. Meanwhile, recent polls from The MarketingResource Group indicate that approximately 37% of Michiganders feel thatAmerica is on the right track, while the majority think it is not. This is whyRachel Howard is running for U.S. Senate: to make Michigan voices matter. I'm Rachel Howard, and I am not a typical politician. I am acombat veteran with 14 years of service in our country, as well as a healthcareleader who has dedicated my career to helping others. I understand the realchallenges facing Michigan families and the urgent need for change on theirbehalf. As one of only 500 women ever to receive the Purple Heart, Ihave served in Iraq and Afghanistan, worked as an EMT in metro Detroit, and ledgroundbreaking research at the Department of Veterans Affairs.  The COVID-19 pandemic forced me to confront the sameimpossible choices many Michigan families face, such as juggling careerresponsibilities with childcare when options became unavailable. Thisexperience opened my eyes to the daily challenges families navigate. My service is not finished. I am running for U.S. Senatebecause Michigan needs a fresh perspective to drive progress. For more information, visit:https://www.rachelforussenate.org/

In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder and CIO of Avory & Co., sits down with Alex Morris of TSOH Investment Research to unpack investing philosophy, portfolio construction, and the real fundamentals behind dollar store economics.Alex shares his path into finance, the influence of Warren Buffett, and why transparency and process matter in research. The conversation then dives deep into Dollar General (DG) and Dollar Tree (DLTR), covering store traffic, margin pressure, capital allocation, and how these businesses are adapting amid competitive and operational challenges.A grounded, fundamentals-first discussion on how mature retailers evolve, where risks remain, and what ultimately drives long-term value.Chapters00:00 Intro & Guest Welcome01:16 Alex's Background & Investing Roots03:51 Research Process & Transparency05:07 Core Investment Philosophy07:05 Baseball Analogies & Decision-Making10:13 Portfolio Construction & Concentration12:11 Dollar General Overview14:19 Competitive Landscape (Walmart, Amazon)16:40 Pandemic Impact & E-commerce18:21 Margin Pressure & Execution Risks21:39 Store Growth & Home Depot Analogy44:15 Dollar Tree vs. Dollar General52:31 Capital Allocation & Valuation60:26 Key Takeaways62:40 Where to Find Alex & OutroFind his book: Buffett and Munger Unscripted: - https://www.amazon.com/Buffett-Munger-Unscripted-Investment-Shareholder/dp/1804091413DisclaimerAvory is an investor in Block.Avory & Co. is a Registered Investment Adviser. This platform is solely for informational purposes. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Avory & Co. and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Avory & Co. unless a client service agreement is in place.Listeners and viewers are encouraged to seek advice from a qualified tax, legal, or investment adviser to determine whether any information presented may be suitable for their specific situation. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.“Likes” are not intended to be endorsements of our firm, our advisors, or our services. While we monitor comments and “likes,” we do not endorse or necessarily share the opinions expressed by site users. Any form of testimony from current or past clients about their experience with our firm is strictly forbidden under current securities laws. Please limit posts to industry-related educational information and comments.Third-party rankings and recognitions are no guarantee of future investment success and do not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance or results. These ratings should not be construed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client nor are they representative of any one client's evaluation.Please reach out to Houston Hess, our Head of Compliance and Operations, for any further details.

Hear our macro experts unpack cautious growth hopes, weak refund boosts and muted CapEx outside AI.

Nora Szentivanyi is joined by Michael Hanson and Raphael Brun-Aguerre to discuss the 2026 inflation outlook and what we are learning from the latest CPI reports.  Led by a sharp moderation in service price gains, global core (and headline) inflation slid to just 2.1%ar in the three months to November––a 1%-pt slide from August and its lowest in five years.  This downward trajectory is once again raising the question of whether the disinflation trend will continue into the new year. As in the past two years, we downplay the slide and look for a rebound in core inflation to a 3.1%ar in 1H26––unchanged from where it has settled since early 2024. In the US, a reversal of the data distortions due to the government shutdown  along with further tariff pass-through is set to push inflation higher in the near-term. In Europe, core inflation should continue to moderate in sympathy with softening wage inflation, though start-of-year price increases pose upside risks to service prices.   This podcast was recorded on 06 January 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5167134-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5160379-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5161477-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5159323-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party

Ce mardi 6 janvier, les enjeux économiques pour l'Europe autour du traité de libre-échange ont été abordés par Céline Antonin, économiste à l'OFCE, Denis Ferrand, directeur général de Rexecode, et Gilbert Cette, économiste et professeur à Neoma Business School dans l'émission Les Experts, présentée par Raphaël Legendre sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.

Ce mardi 6 janvier, l'impact de l'inflation à 1% sur les Français, et l'idée d'un déblocage de l'intéressement envisagée par Bercy pour soutenir le pouvoir d'achat, ont été abordés par Céline Antonin, économiste à l'OFCE, Denis Ferrand, directeur général de Rexecode, et Gilbert Cette, économiste et professeur à Neoma Business School, dans l'émission Les Experts, présentée par Raphaël Legendre sur BFM Business. Retrouvez l'émission du lundi au vendredi et réécoutez la en podcast.

Inflation is eating your paycheck. Prices keep rising. But have you ever wondered who's really pulling the strings? What's behind the rising costs at the grocery store and the gas pump? Today, we're diving into the powerful institution at the heart of the U.S. economy — the Federal Reserve — and uncovering how it influences and shapes inflation. On this episode of Investing in Real Estate, you're going to learn about the history of the Fed and how it became a powerful influence on the economy. You're going to learn about the Federal Reserve's main roles, its role in today's inflationary crisis, and much more.

La Banque centrale européenne maintient ses taux, estimant l'inflation en recul, mais prévient que l'économie reste fragile face aux chocs géopolitiques et énergétiques persistants.Traduction: The European Central Bank holds rates steady, noting easing inflation, but warns the economy remains fragile amid persistent geopolitical and energy-related shocks. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

The number of legendary investors calling this an AI bubble continues to climb, with Howard Marks, co-founder of Wall Street giant Oaktree flatly stating if AI isn't conforming to the historical bubble pattern, it will be a first. But there are some key differences within that pattern that just aren't being fully appreciated. Starting with how this AI bubble isn't actually about the stock market. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Connect with Early Riders // Connect with OnrampPresented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.00:00 - Welcome Back and Market Overview02:47 - Inflation and Asset Trends05:44 - Regulatory Changes and Institutional Adoption08:53 - Security Risks and Custody Solutions11:52 - Market Sentiment and Long-Term Thinking14:57 - The Role of AI and Future Predictions33:15 - Navigating the Content Proliferation Challenge35:59 - The Future of Value in Digital Content40:19 - Stablecoins vs. Bitcoin: The Future of Transactions42:10 - Tether's Strategic Positioning in Global Markets48:43 - The Shift of Talent and Capital to Favorable Jurisdictions56:17 - Understanding the Economic Landscape and Future OpportunitiesIf you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.Links discussed:https://x.com/exec_sum/status/2005751198725640395?s=20https://x.com/bearlyai/status/2006474217206985085?s=20https://x.com/paoloardoino/status/2002414704753586398?s=20Keep up with Michael:https://x.com/MTangumahttps://www.linkedin.com/in/mtanguma/Keep up with Brian:https://x.com/BackslashBTChttps://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-cubellis-00b1a660/Keep up with Liam:https://x.com/Lnelson_21https://www.linkedin.com/in/liam-nelson1/

On this episode, I cover some security concerns that have bubbled up over the last couple of weeks including MongoBleed and several harmful Chrome extensions, talk of ads coming to ChatGPT and much more! Reference Links: https://www.rorymon.com/blog/mongobleed-being-exploited-ram-price-inflation-continues-ads-in-chatgpt/

In this segment, Mark is joined by Tim Murtagh, a Washington Times Columnist and the Founder & Principal of Line Drive Public Affairs. He discusses his latest piece, "Democrats should get blame for health care costs, inflation."

Bull steepening on the Treasury curve, falling energy prices especially gasoline, the final look at the US economy in 2025 shows it losing momentum again as the new year begins. In fact, even mainstream Economists, the most optimistic bunch you'll find, they're growing concerned again, with Moody's chief economist saying, quote, “nothing else can go wrong” because in his words, we're already on the edge of recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S&P Global US Manu PMIhttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7ca2ebfa9cce4c768e0cf449ba966293https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In 2026, $9 TRILLION in U.S. debt comes due. Central banks are dumping Treasuries. Inflation is still raging. Is the Fed about to print us into oblivion? The answers may surprise you—and they're already unfolding.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310

Der Haushalt 2026 beinhaltet neue Rekordschulden am verfassungsmäßigen Limit. Was bedeutet das für das Portemonnaie jedes Einzelnen? Wie kann man die Volkswirtschaft und auch sich persönlich absichern? Benjamin Mudlack ist zur Schuldenproblematik zu Gast. In „Zweifel & Zuversicht – der Podcast für Macher-Mentalität“ begrüßt Hängen höhere Schulden, geringere Produktivität und Inflation zusammen? Und was kann jeder Einzelne tun, um sich vor Kaufkraftverlust zu schützen? Hierüber spricht Banker, Autor und Unternehmer Benjamin Mudlack mit Alexander Zwieschowski, Geschäftsführer und Chefredakteur der deutschen Ausgabe von Epoch Times. In dieser ersten Sendung des neuen Formats "Zweifel & Zuversicht" werden Probleme benannt und darüber hinaus Lösungsansätze diskutiert. Geschäftsführer und Chefredakteur Alexander Zwieschowski lädt in diesem Format spannende Gäste zu den drängenden Fragen unserer Zeit in das Epoch-Times-Studio in Berlin ein. Das Besondere: Als Jahresabonnent von Epoch Times haben Sie exklusiv die Möglichkeit, im Vorfeld der Sendungen Fragen einzureichen. Einige Tage vor der Aufzeichnung teilen wir Ihnen mit, welche Gäste und Themen als Nächstes anstehen. Natürlich können Sie als aktiver Teil der Community auch Vorschläge zu Gästen und Themen einsenden. In Kürze wird zudem monatlich eine Sendung mit Publikum im EpochTV-Studio in Berlin stattfinden. Die Teilnahme hieran ist exklusiv für Epoch-Times-Jahresabonnenten möglich, die Anzahl der Plätze ist begrenzt.

In this episode, we discuss our biggest lessons from our interview with Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4 percent rule, and are joined by special guest Ben Tuscai.We explore how one of the most widely cited ideas in retirement planning was developed, how it is often misunderstood, and how it should actually be used in real-world financial planning. The conversation bridges academic research and practical application, digging into safe withdrawal rates, sequence of returns risk, inflation, portfolio construction, and what retirement planning really looks like across decades of uncertainty.• How and why Bill Bengen originally developed the 4 percent rule• What the 4 percent rule actually means and the most common ways it is misapplied• Why inflation and sequence of returns risk are the biggest threats to retirees• The role of diversification and asset allocation in safe withdrawal strategies• How market valuations and bond yields affect sustainable withdrawal rates• Why higher equity exposure can sometimes increase retirement safety• The evolution from the original 4 percent rule to higher safe max withdrawal rates• The psychology of retirement spending and sleeping well during market stress• Planning for longer retirements, early retirement, and rising healthcare costs• U-shaped and rising equity glide paths and why they can improve outcomes• Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and managing withdrawals through bear markets• When spending more or taking less risk makes sense after you have already “won the game”00:00 – Introduction and why the 4 percent rule still matters03:00 – Bill Bengen explains how the 4 percent rule was created06:00 – Worst historical retirement periods and inflation risk10:30 – How advisors actually use the 4 percent rule in practice15:30 – Inflation, bear markets, and sequence of returns risk18:30 – Market valuations, CAPE ratios, and withdrawal rate adjustments23:00 – Financial planning software versus simple rules of thumb27:00 – Sequence risk explained and why retirees can get hurt early31:00 – How diversification increased safe withdrawal rates over time37:00 – Safe max withdrawal rates and optimal equity allocation42:30 – Longer retirements, FIRE, and planning beyond 30 years45:30 – U-shaped and rising equity glide paths explained50:30 – Healthcare costs, longevity risk, and retirement stress testing56:30 – Bucket strategies, cash reserves, and dynamic withdrawalsMain Topics CoveredTimestamps

#677: Happy New Year! We're kicking off 2026 with a reality check on where your money stands right now. The Good News: Gas prices dropped below $3/gallon. Inflation cooled to 2.7%. The Fed cut rates again. GDP grew 4.3% (surprisingly strong). Gold hit $4,500 an ounce. And 19 states raised minimum wages. The Not-So-Good: Health insurance jumped 10-18%. Unemployment ticked up. Mortgage rates are stuck around 6.2%. And 80% of homeowners are unlikely to sell because they locked in rates below 6%. The Big Picture: The stock market is outperforming the economy. How It Affects You: I call it "millionaire malaise." Your 401k looks great. Your home equity is through the roof (no pun intended). If you bought before 2022, your assets look good on paper. Yet you're stressed out at the grocery store. Everything costs more – insurance, groceries, everything except gas. Jobs are stagnant. People are stuck. We're experiencing the difference between wealth and income. This is 2026: Wealthy on paper. Broke at the checkout line. Whether you're new to money management or a long-timer looking for clarity, this episode cuts through the noise to tell you what actually matters for your finances this year. Download the free resource: AffordAnything.com/financialgoals Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

There was an explosion, a record spike – and it's not even close - in lending by European banks to European shadow banks in October and November. This spike in European bank lending wasn't some newfound enthusiasm to take on risks. It was emergency lending, a shadow bank shadow bailout which was every bit the other side of the US$ repo tightness I've been telling you about. This surge in shadow bank borrowing in euros shows how widespread and global funding pressure has already been.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------The Banker Explainer: Why the IMF fears contagion from lenders' shadow bank exposurehttps://www.thebanker.com/content/0ec3d3f5-62bc-4aa1-8202-9cccb6ebc2a3Bloomberg Deutsche Bank Leads EU Lenders' Exposure to Shadow Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/deutsche-bank-most-exposed-in-europe-to-shadow-banks-ubs-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

00:00 - Intro 00:29 - Rule 1. How credit treat you 02:51 - Rule 2: You stop selling time directly 04:49 - Rule 3. Failure becomes survivable08:13 - Rule 4: Inflation works in your favor 10:26 - Rule 5: Risk becomes optional 12:50 - Rule 6: The system starts working with you 14:51 - Rule 7: Money stop being the point Tools: Protect yourself online with NordVPN: https://www.nordvpn.com/alux Get a free audiobook when you sign up: https://www.alux.com/freebook Start an online store today: https://www.alux.com/sell Sell an online course: https://try.thinkific.com/f5rt2qpvbfok Alux.com is the largest community of luxury & fine living enthusiasts in the world. We are the #1 online resource for ranking the most expensive things in the world and frequently referenced in publications such as Forbes, USAToday, Wikipedia and many more, as the GO-TO destination for luxury content! Our website: https://www.alux.com is the largest social network for people who are passionate about LUXURY! Join today! SUBSCRIBE so you never miss another episode: https://goo.gl/KPRQT8 -- To see how rich is your favorite celebrity go to: https://www.alux.com/networth/ -- For businesses inquiries we're available at: https://www.alux.com/contact/ 

On Thursday's Mark Levin Show, we bring you the best of Mark Levin on New Years Day.  President Trump announces that the U.S. America has launched “Operation Hawkeye Strike” in Syria after ISIS ambushed and killed two of our soldiers and an interpreter. Trump promised overwhelming retaliation—and he's delivering—sending jets, helicopters, and artillery to wipe out ISIS fighters and their infrastructure. This is real leadership: when you kill Americans, you pay the price. Later, America was founded by Christians—all delegates at the Constitutional Convention and Second Continental Congress were Christian—and Christianity is a tolerant, and humane faith enabling religious minorities to live freely. The Declaration of Independence's references to God stem from Judeo-Christian values, with Christianity heavily influenced by Judaism, as recognized by the founders; modern efforts, like those by Tucker Carlson, to separate the two are a new attack on both Jews and Christians, repudiated as blasphemy by pastors.  Americanism is fundamentally incompatible with Islamism. There's an alliance between leftists and Islamists driven by a shared goal of destroying the West, America, its Constitution, and republican system. Afterward, America owes its greatness to the Republican Party, which ended slavery and passed civil rights acts that Democrats wrongly claim credit for, rooted in foundational principles called constitutional conservatism. Without it, the nation would be an awful, dark, lawless place. The party fights to secure borders, promote assimilation, teach true history (good, bad, and ugly), and elect conservatives who embrace national ideals, leading to better quality of life in free states compared to dying blue ones. However, internal threats like Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, and Steve Bannon seek to destroy the Republican Party—not just its establishment—and its Judeo-Christian foundations, abandoning the legacy of Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Eisenhower, Reagan, and Trump, without specifying a replacement.  In addition, U.S. Attorney's office in Minnesota has announced new indictments in the Somali community revealing industrial-scale fraud in the state's Medicaid programs, with half or more of the roughly $18 billion paid out since 2018 potentially fraudulent across at least 14 high-risk services. The fraud outpaces other states, risking essential services and ripping off taxpayers. Why isn't there any outrage from Democrats like Rep Ilhan Omar? Also, Inflation is decreasing significantly, and the U.S. economy is poised for improvement despite possible short-term dips, ultimately leading to growth. President Trump has implemented extensive pro-growth measures across sectors such as natural resources, food, commercial fisheries, and farming, including removing Biden-era regulations, and enacting massive tax and regulatory cuts reminiscent of Reagan's. Finally, we have a growing terrorist threat in Europe stemming from the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, which has been exported through operational networks involving Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.  These Islamists are already in the U.S. waiting and plotting.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

tk

PREVIEW THE COMPLEXITY OF US-CHINA TRADE NEGOTIATIONS Colleague Anne Stevenson-Yang. Stevenson-Yang argues against a trade embargo, citing US dependence on Chinese supply chains and fears of inflation. She highlights a major diplomatic hurdle: China is willing to offer concessions but remains unsure of the specific "ask" required by the US administration to resolve the conflict. 1900 BOXER TERROR

Social Security and Medicare aren't abstract programs — they keep millions of Americans alive. Critics warn Trump-backed policies could force seniors and disabled Americans to delay or skip lifesaving care. We break down what's changing, who's at risk, and why this could become a public health emergency. Executive Director of Social Security Works, Alex Lawson joins Thom to break it down. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

The team reunites in 2026 and reflects on the economy's performance in 2025 and looks ahead to the New Year. Mark reviews the forecast accuracy for the past year and is surprised by the results. Mark and Cris quibble over how to characterize the economy in 2025, and the team shares its predictions for 2026, along with the probabilities of the base cases, upside, and downside forecasts.  Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's AnalyticsFollow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn  Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Roundup of the Week's Top Stories in Economics and FreedomVoters Losing Patience with InflationRent Prices Fall most in 15 YearsKey Climate Paper Retracted“Blockbuster” GDP GrowthDollar Collapse Would Bring HyperinflationRead the article "Dollar Collapse Would Bring Hyperinflation" at https://www.profstonge.com/Visit our Sponsor: Monetary MetalsEarn 5% to 12% interest on your physical gold and silver, paid in physical gold and silver.Visit our Sponsor: CoinKiteProtect your Bitcoin with an Ultra-Secure Hardware WalletDisclaimer: This post contains affiliate links. If you make a purchase, I may receive a commission at no extra cost to you.Support the show

From an Austrian perspective, the Panic of 1893 provides key lessons, but this consequential panic has not received as much direct attention as it deserves.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/panic-1893-austrian-view

RenMac kicks off 2026 with a wide-ranging discussion on the political reality around affordability and inflation, asset allocation myths, and what to watch as ISM and employment data kick off the year. Dutta argues inflation pressures are easing faster than expected across housing, labor, and energy. deGraaf highlights emerging cyclicality beneath soft year-end trading, cautioning that extended moves in commodities and precious metals are entering bubble territory. And Pavlick outlines why tariff relief is increasingly consumer-focused, how Taiwan and China remain a central geopolitical risk, and why midterm dynamics will shape policy more than campaign rhetoric.

From an Austrian perspective, the Panic of 1893 provides key lessons, but this consequential panic has not received as much direct attention as it deserves.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/panic-1893-austrian-view

The Fed is going to need some more not-QE and fast. We've got the year-end surge in repo borrowing at its window that is already way more than expected. At the same time, front end Treasury bill yields tumble in what is looking more like collateral scarcity along the lines of repo fails. Plus, the rest of the yield curve spent the entire fourth quarter – doing nothing. Literally nothing - and that's huge. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU LIVE PRESIDENT'S DAY FEBRUARY 2026If you're a serious investor and want to capitalize on what the monetary system is signaling right now, plus deep discussions about what truly is the greatest threat we all face, join me, Hugh Hendry, George Gammon, Steve Van Metre, Brent Johnson, Mike Green at Eurodollar University's very first Live Event, President's Day Weekend February 2026. To reserve your spot just go here but you better hurry, there aren't many spots left:https://eurodollar-university.com/event-home-page---------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

⁠Follow Gina: ⁠ www.themmg.ca & ⁠The MMG Podcast ⁠Thank you to our Sponsors: Training Day Cafe & Lachi Films ⁠Training Day Cafe⁠ & Iron Nation Fitness: Mention the pod for special offers⁠⁠Lachi Films Wedding Videography⁠⁠: Mention the pod for 10% off⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Desi Dontdoze Playlist⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Producer/Audio Engineer ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Kyle Bhawan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠-------------------------00:00 Intro 07:50 misconceptions about retirement 12:31 Lifestyle inflation 20:39 Step by step investing 33:38 Compounding Interest 36:47 Moving TFSA's38:19 110K Car Debt43:30 How much to save & invest 46:31 Investing in ETF's49:48 22K credit card debt 59:15 Condo's are bleeding money 1:00:17 Investing for your kids1:02:02 Best Travel rewards credit card1:03:31 House or Reception 1:05:27 life insurance 1:08:54 How to invest 139K 1:13:44 Student Loans 1:15:12 Single mom 1:16:51 28 y/o with 100k 1:18:03 Final thoughts 

Original Release Date: November 25, 2025Our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen breaks down how growth, inflation and the AI revolution could play out in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Gapen: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Today I'll review our 2026 U.S. Economic Outlook and what it means for growth, inflation, jobs and the Fed.It's Tuesday, November 25th, at 10am in New York.If 2025 was the year of fast and furious policy changes, then 2026 is when the dust settles.Last year, we predicted slow growth and sticky inflation, mainly because of strict trade and immigration policies – and this proved accurate. But this year, the story is changing. We see the U.S. economy finally moving past the high-uncertainty phase. Looking ahead, we see a return to modest growth of 1.8 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027. Inflation should cool but it likely won't hit the Fed's 2 percent target. By the end of 2026, we see headline PCE inflation at 2.5 percent, core inflation at 2.6 percent, and both stay above the 2 percent target through 2027. In other words, the inflation fight isn't over, but the worst is behind us.So, if 2025 was slow growth and sticky inflation, then 2026 and [20]27 could be described as moderate growth and disinflation. The impact of trade and immigration policies should fade, and the economic climate should improve. Now, there are still some risks. Tariffs could push prices higher for consumers in the near term; or if firms cannot pass through tariffs, we worry about additional layoffs. But looking ahead to the second half of 2026 and beyond, we think those risks shift to the upside, with a better chance of positive surprises for growth.After all, AI-related business spending remains robust and upper income consumers are faring well. There is reason for optimism. That said, we think the most likely path for the economy is the return to modest growth. U.S. consumers start to rebound, but slowly. Tariffs will keep prices firm in the first half of 2026, squeezing purchasing power for low- and middle-income households. These households consume mainly through labor market income, and until inflation starts to retreat, purchasing power should be constrained.Real consumption should rise 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.8 [percent] in 2027 – better, but not booming. The main culprit is a labor market that's still in ‘low-hire, low-fire' mode driven by immigration controls and tariff effects that keep hiring soft. We see unemployment peaking at 4.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, then easing to 4.5 percent by year-end. Jobs are out there, but the labor market isn't roaring. It'll be hard for hiring to pick up until after tariffs have been absorbed.And when jobs cool, the Fed steps in. The Fed is cutting rates – but at a cost. After two 25 basis point rate cuts in September and October, we expect 75 basis points more by mid 2026, bringing the target range to 3.0-3.25 percent. Why? To insure against labor market weakness. But that insurance comes with a price: inflation staying above target longer. Think of it as the Fed walking a tightrope—lean too far toward jobs, and inflation lingers; lean too far toward inflation, and growth stumbles. For now the Fed has chosen the former.And how does AI fit into the macro picture? It's definitely a major growth driver. Spending on AI-related hardware, software, and data centers adds about 0.4 percent to growth in both 2026 and 2027. That's roughly 20 percent of total growth. But here's the twist: imports dilute the impact. After accounting for imported tech, AI's net contribution falls sharply. Still, we expect AI to boost productivity by 25-35 basis points by 2027, over our forecast horizon, marking the start of a new innovation cycle. In short: AI is planting the seeds now for bigger gains later.Of course, there are risks to our outlook. And let me flag three important ones. First, demand upside – meaning fiscal stimulus and business optimism push growth higher; under this scenario inflation stays hot, and the Fed pauses cuts. If the economy really picks up, then the Fed may need to take back the risk management cuts it's putting in now. That would be a shock to markets. Second, there's a productivity upside – in which case AI delivers bigger productivity gains, disinflation resumes, and rates drift lower. And lastly, a potential mild recession where tariffs and tight policy bite harder, GDP turns negative in early 2026, and the Fed slashes rates to near 1 percent. So in summary: 2026 looks to be a transition year with less drama but more nuance, as growth returns and inflation cools, while AI keeps rewriting the playbook.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Not all wholesalers play the game the same way—and the smart ones always come out ahead. In this episode, Aaron Chapman breaks down the hidden forces that impact your money, from inflation eating away at your buying power to the real cost of interest payments. Learn how to find better deals, make strategic financing moves, and shift your mindset from chasing cash flow to building lasting wealth. If you're serious about wholesaling, join the TTP Training Program.---------Show notes:(0:52) Beginning of today's episode(4:14) Inflation lowering the value of your dollars(7:04) Your dollars are losing 8% of its value or buying power every year(7:54) Finding deals and buying(14:53) The longer you take to pay the less you actually pay.(17:07) Interest paying position(28:52) We're not a cash flow market we are an appreciation one(34:24) Is timing the market important?----------Resources:To speak with Brent or one of our other expert coaches call (281) 835-4201 or schedule your free discovery call here to learn about our mentorship programs and become part of the TribeGo to Wholesalingincgroup.com to become part of one of the fastest growing Facebook communities in the Wholesaling space. Get all of your burning Wholesaling questions answered, gain access to JV partnerships, and connect with other "success minded" Rhinos in the community.It's 100% free to join. The opportunities in this community are endless, what are you waiting for?

1. Welfare System Fraud and Structural Issues Based on an op-ed by Phil Gramm and John Early in The Wall Street Journal titled “The Biggest Fraud in Welfare”. Key points: U.S. welfare spending has skyrocketed 765% since the mid-1970s, now totaling $1.4 trillion annually. If distributed evenly among the 19.8 million families classified as poor, each would receive $71,000 per year. The government fails to count non-cash benefits (Medicaid, housing subsidies, food stamps) as income, creating a distorted picture of poverty. Example: A single parent earning $11,000 annually can receive benefits worth $53,128, bringing total resources to $64,128, well above the poverty threshold. Criticism of the system: It traps people in dependency instead of promoting self-sufficiency, contrasting with Trump-era welfare reform that moved 7 million people off food stamps into the workforce. 2. Massive Fraud in Minnesota’s Medicaid and Welfare Programs Federal prosecutors allege up to $9 billion in fraud since 2018, possibly 50% of the $18 billion spent on 14 programs. Fraud described as “industrial scale”, involving fake companies and individuals exploiting housing and autism assistance programs. Some funds allegedly funneled to Al Shabab, a Somali terrorist organization. Criticism of Minnesota’s Democratic leadership for lack of oversight and alleged vote-buying incentives. Prediction: Similar fraud likely exists in California, New York, and Illinois. Media accused of downplaying the scandal; local CBS reports highlighted the severity. 3. Strong U.S. Economic Performance Under Trump Latest GDP report shows 4.3% growth in Q3, the strongest in two years, beating expectations of 3.2%. Growth driven by consumer spending, healthcare, tech, and AI-related investments. Inflation reportedly down to 1.6%, signaling economic stability. Commentary contrasts media narratives predicting economic collapse with reality of strong holiday spending and trade policy success. Trump’s supply-side policies (tax cuts, deregulation) and trade strategies credited for economic boom. Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the 47 Morning Update with Ben Ferguson and The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruz/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/verdictwithtedcruz X: https://x.com/tedcruz X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.