Podcasts about pmis

Patrick Locke, Junya Tanase, Meera Chandan, Arindam Sandilya and James Nelligan discuss the pivotal Japan macro week ahead of us, as well as the outlook for ECB/ Fed and US-China trade talks.   This podcast was recorded on 24 October 2025. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5111208-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2025 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

US to probe China's 2020 trade compliance while Trump has "terminated" all trade talks with Canada.European bourses opened firmer but now off best levels whilst US equity futures are in the green; INTC +8.3%.USD slightly higher into CPI, EUR boosted on German PMIs but now pared.Bunds & Gilts hit by PMIs, OATs look to Moody's, USTs await CPI.Crude gives back recent strength, XAU also on the backfoot around USD 4.06k/oz.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Oct), US CPI (Sep), CBR Policy Announcement, European Council (23rd-24th), Moody's Credit Review on France, Speakers including ECB's Cipollone & Nagel, Earnings from Procter & Gamble.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart, Sarah Campos e Victor Ary debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, o CPI dos EUA veio abaixo do esperado, mostrando que o repasse das tarifas sobre bens continua fraco; enquanto os PMIs subiram, puxados por serviços. Na Europa, os PMIs também surpreenderam positivamente, com melhora puxada pela Alemanha. Já no Reino Unido, o CPI de setembro surpreendeu para baixo e o PMI também veio mais forte. A tensão geopolítica aumentou com novas sanções a empresas russas.  No Brasil, o IPCA-15 veio abaixo do esperado, com queda significativa de serviços subjacentes e melhora da dinâmica dos núcleos. O Focus trouxe melhora nas expectativas de inflação, principalmente nos vértices mais longos. O governo decidiu incorporar as despesas que constavam na MP 1.303 em outras propostas, separando a parte de redução de despesas da parte de aumento de receitas, com o primeiro apresentando maior probabilidade de aprovação. As pesquisas eleitorais mostraram resultados divergentes, com melhora e piora na avaliação do governo. No mercado de crédito, o destaque foi a reversão parcial da forte compressão dos spreads de debêntures incentivadas observada desde junho. O índice de debêntures incentivadas abriu 40 bps nos últimos 10 dias, devolvendo quase metade do fechamento acumulado anteriormente. Mesmo assim, a semana foi marcada por forte volume no primário, com R$3,5 bi em novas emissões incentivadas, além de pipeline robusto. Nos EUA, as bolsas subiram (S&P 500 +1,92%), os juros curtos abriram marginalmente, e os longos fecharam marginalmente. No Brasil, o Ibovespa subiu 1,93%, os juros fecharam (jan/31 -31 bps) e o real valorizou 0,40%. Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os encontros do Trump com Lula e Xi Jinping; decisões do Fed, ECB, BOC e BoJ; dados de atividade e inflação na Europa e inflação no Japão; e dados de mercado de trabalho e crédito no Brasil. Não deixe de conferir!

Send us a textInvestors maintain more dovish view on rates than the Fed. Accelerating inflation could change that and help the dollar. Pound, yen extend their slides, euro rebounds on improving PMIs. Wall Street gains as White House confirms Trump-Xi meeting.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

En Capital Intereconomía hemos repasado las claves del día y la evolución de los mercados en Asia, Wall Street y Europa, en una sesión marcada por los datos macroeconómicos y el pulso geopolítico internacional. En el primer análisis de la mañana, Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia, ha valorado el crecimiento del PIB de China, que avanzó un 4,8% en el tercer trimestre, una cifra mejor de lo esperado y que refuerza la confianza en la recuperación del gigante asiático. La semana estará marcada, ha dicho, por la publicación de los PMIs e IPCs, claves para medir la resistencia de las principales economías ante la moderación de los tipos de interés. Bolinches ha destacado además que los mercados bursátiles, los bonos y el dólar se enfrentan a una nueva fase de ajuste, con los inversores buscando equilibrio tras el golpe bancario regional en Estados Unidos, que no ha impedido que el Ibex 35 cierre la semana en positivo, sostenido por el buen tono de las utilities y el rebote de la banca nacional. En el repaso de la prensa económica, nacional e internacional, las portadas han puesto el foco en la incertidumbre global y las tensiones comerciales. En la entrevista del día, Enrique Navarro, analista experto en geoestrategia y defensa, ha analizado el nuevo plan quinquenal de China, que sitúa la tecnología y la seguridad nacional en el centro de su estrategia económica y militar. Según Navarro, Pekín busca reforzar su independencia frente a Occidente y consolidarse como potencia tecnológica y defensiva en un contexto de creciente rivalidad con Estados Unidos. El experto también ha comentado las amenazas de Trump de imponer aranceles a Colombia, un movimiento que podría tensar las relaciones comerciales con Latinoamérica, y el nuevo repunte de la tensión en Oriente Medio, donde Hamás e Israel se acusan mutuamente de incumplir el acuerdo de paz, poniendo en duda la estabilidad alcanzada tras semanas de negociación.

In this week's Macro Mondays, James Brodie is joined by James Todd and Spyridon Kokas as they dive into the most recent market shifts. US regional banks are under pressure, while the broader banking sector now holds over $395 billion in unrealised losses tied to bond and securities markdowns. At the same time, US equities are roaring into year-end, with record inflows into tech stocks and margin debt surging to the highest numbers on record. Meanwhile, China's macro picture continues to deteriorate. GDP growth slowed, household consumption weakened, and fixed asset investment contracted for the first time since 2020, highlighting a fragile domestic backdrop. In the commodities space, precious metals were rocked by volatility, with both silver and palladium falling sharply despite record inflows into gold and silver ETFs the week prior. With global flash PMIs due this week, investors are increasingly forced to weigh risk-taking against a growing set of macro stress signals. Key highlights include:✅ US regional banks under pressure: $395B in unrealised losses✅ China's fixed investment falls for the first time since 2020✅ France's sovereign credit rating downgraded to A+✅ Tech mania builds as hedge funds keep selling✅ Precious metals rocked by volatility; Silver down 4.2%✅ Brent crude trends lower; Bitcoin volatility picks up✅ Netflix & Tesla earnings on watch 

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news Australia is facing some hard choices in their relationships with China and the US. Can you have security without economic stability? Can you have stability with a disrespectful and unreliable partner?But first, this coming week will be dominated by today's New Zealand CPI release later this morning. And a full dairy auction on Wednesday.In the US, there is some expectation that they will get their September CPI data at the end of the week (expect higher than 3%) despite the shutdown. But most focus there will be on the Q3 earnings season announcements. CPI data will also come from Japan, Singapore and Malaysia. But there will be PMIs from all over this week and well as interest rate decisions from Indonesia and Korea. And the Chinese will review their Loan Prime rates although no change is expected.From China, they will release Q3 GDP data, which is expected to show a small sag (to 4.8%?), along with a range of other core economic metrics which should give a broader fix on how they are trackingOver the weekend in India, bank loan growth accelerated to its fastest pace of expansion in September, for all of 2025, up +11.4% from year-ago levels to US$2.3 bln.After two months of declines, Singapore's exports rose almost +7% in September from a year ago, largely on the back of recovering exports of electronic goods.In Malaysia, their Q3 GDP result shows them expanding +5.2% from a year ago, accelerating from +4.4% growth in Q2. It is their fastest expansion in a yearIn Australia, there is growing concern about the building of uneven wealth distribution and how inheritances embed both inequality and entitlement. A failed attempt to address it through their superannuation system reforms has just raised the pressure to 'do something'.A more immediate stress is also building in Australia; American pressure to de-couple from China. This seems quite unlikely given the local wealth-weight dependent on the China trade. But it will make for 'interesting times' in the AU-US relationship.In the US over the weekend President Trump seemed to back off his sharp rhetoric against China in another TACO moment. Markets went into temporary relief mode on Friday. There was more TACO for Ukraine, even Gaza but both of them just added to the mess he made.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.01% and unchanged from Saturday but down -4 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$4251/oz, up +US$30 from Saturday. Over the past week, gold is up a net +5.8%, silver is up a net +3.3% and platinum is now marginally lower.American oil prices are holding lower at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just over US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.4 USc, and up +10 bps from Saturday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 88.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 49.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.9, up +10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,732 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Yara Cordeiro debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, o destaque continuou sendo o embate tarifário entre EUA e China. Apesar das ameaças iniciais de Trump com alíquotas bastante elevadas, o tom foi suavizado ao longo da semana, e o encontro com Xi Jinping a princípio está mantido. Já nos EUA, o shutdown seguiu limitando a divulgação de dados relevantes. Ainda por lá, dois bancos regionais afirmaram ter sido vítimas de fraudes em empréstimos ligados a fundos imobiliários, mas outros bancos afirmaram não ter visto aumento de inadimplência. No Brasil, dirigentes do Banco Central reforçaram o tom de cautela durante o encontro do FMI, indicando que a taxa de juros deverá permanecer em patamar restritivo pelo tempo necessário para garantir a convergência da inflação. Os dados de serviços (PMS) vieram em linha com o esperado, com destaque positivo nos serviços prestados às famílias, em parte beneficiados pelo efeito do pagamento de precatórios; e os dados de comércio (PMC) tiveram alta impulsionada por setores ligados a crédito. Nos EUA, os juros fecharam marginalmente (menos de 5 bps), e as bolsas performaram bem: S&P 500 +1,7%, Nasdaq +2,46%, Russell 2000 +2,4%. No Brasil, os juros mais longos fecharam (jan/31 -8 bps), o Ibovespa subiu 1,93% e o real 2,05%. Na próxima semana, destaque para o IPCA-15 de outubro, novas pesquisas eleitorais, CPI nos EUA, PMIs globais e o eventual anúncio da proposta que substituirá a MP 1.303. Não deixe de conferir!

Send us a textUS CPI and PMI data to test dovish Fed cut bets. UK inflation figures may impact chances of another BoE cut in 2025. Japanese CPI numbers are also due out. Eurozone flash PMIs could revive ECB rate cut expectations.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while the 'real economy' is barely able to expand - but is in fact doing so modestly - there are two extreme bubbles brewing - in AI firm valuations, and in precious metals valuations. One or both will end sometime, and the losses will be extraordinary when they do, likely hurting the 'real economy' when it happens. But who knows when? Financial market risk aversion is in evidence today in the bond markets.There are other stresses of course (geopolitical, retribution stupidity, commodity distortions, climate, etc.) and they have to play out at the same time.But first in the US, their economic data is dominated today by the October version of the Philadelphia Fed factory survey for the important Pennsylvania rust belt region. That reported an unexpected sharp slowdown in activity and a six month low in this index. If there is a silver lining however, it is that new order levels picked up from what were very low levels. Not helping however is that firms are again reporting higher than average cost increases. Most firms reported struggles passing on those higher costs in higher prices.American house-building activity has been struggling for the past five months but sentiment in the industry picked up in October somewhat, mainly on the expectation that lower interest rates would help. It's a sentiment improvement,not an activity improvement however.Yesterday we noted slightly improved factory sentiment in the New York state area. But today we can report that their services sector is in a tough spot, in fact its lowest since the pandemic-affected January 2021. It is glum there and firms are not expecting much improvement.In Canada, their small business sentiment has turned negative too.But Canada's housebuilding sector is on a roll, reporting strong housing starts again in September and well above what analysts were expecting. That is now five of the past six months with elevated housing start data.Across the Pacific in Japan, core machinery orders, excluding the large volatile sectors, fell -0.9% in August from July to ¥8.9 tln but it was much less than the sharp -4.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected a small gain however.And staying in Japan, it now looks like Sanae Takaichi will in fact become prime minister after more coalition talks.In France, the Macron-allied new prime minister has survived a no-confidence vote (on the second attempt) bringing some stability to their political mess.In Australia, their September jobless rate ticked higher to 4.5% and their jobs growth, especially full-time jobs growth, came in lower than expected.For the first time since June when rates started falling fast, global container freight rates rose last week, overall by +2%. In the meantime they had fallen -52%, so that suggests these costs may be bottoming out. They are now -50% lower than year-ago levels. There were modest rises everywhere, even in outbound China rates. There will be activity trying to front-run potentially new tariffs by the US, and there is Christmas-goods flows starting too.Bulk cargo rates rose a net +2% last week too, but in between it was unusually volatile. These latest levels are now +12% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 3.97% and down -8 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4273/oz, up +US$77 from yesterday and far away a new ATH. Silver is up to just under US$54/oz and an ATH. Platinum is roaring too, now at US$1732/oz and up +71% from the start of the year and approaching its 2011 highs.American oil prices are down -US$1 at just on US$57.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$61/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 57.3 USc, and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +60 bps at 88.4 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at 49.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.8, up +10 bps from yesterday. Also, see this.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,652 and down another -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/- 1.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Global manufacturing is stabilising, but the recovery remains uneven across regions. Singapore’s factories are finding their footing again amid tariffs and soft demand, while markets worldwide brace for the next move from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Dan Koh speaks with Pan Jingyi, Economics Associate Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, to unpack what the latest PMIs and the upcoming Fed minutes reveal about the health of global trade, inflation pressures, and Asia’s growth outlook heading into the final quarter of 2025.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Allan Fukumoto, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Nos EUA, dados mistos de atividade e emprego, além da paralisação do governo, aumentaram a volatilidade nos mercados. Na Europa, os PMIs industriais recuaram e a inflação alemã acelerou. Na China, o governo anunciou estímulos para investimentos. No Brasil, o IGP-M subiu acima do esperado, enquanto o mercado de trabalho mostrou desaceleração. A taxa de desemprego se manteve em 5,6%. Para os próximos dias, os destaques são os dados do Payroll nos EUA e a produção industrial no Brasil."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Join Joanne McCabe and Chief Economist David McNamara as they break down the latest AIB Irish Manufacturing and Services PMI data. The pair discuss key trends in sector growth, export dynamics, employment shifts, and the impact of global events on Ireland's economy. Listen to our Treasury team as they talk insights into the resilience of Irish business as we enter the final quarter of 2025, with a spotlight on standout sectors and the outlook for the months ahead.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Shutdown nos EUA aumenta incerteza, pressiona bolsas e adia payroll; petróleo reage, bitcoin avança e PMIs da Europa reforçam fraqueza industrial.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news markets are maintaining a wilful blindness in the face of the arrival of some major threats and poor data.Firstly we should note that the US Federal Government is shutting down having reached its debt limit, and in the absence of a compromise reached between Congress (the Senate in this case) and White House. There is no sign that this issue will be resolved soon. The President is using the event to blame everyone else but himself - and the truth is he probably doesn't care what damage he is doing; he's likely relishing it.But it will likely have significant financial market impacts, although today Wall Street is acting like it will be resolved quickly as usual, holding their breath.However, this shutdown could delay the September jobs report due at the weekend. Some are even saying the shutdown could stretch all the way to the Fed's next meeting on October 29. (The US Supreme Court has knocked back Trump's attempt to oust Fed Governor Cook, at least until the new year.) Gold posted another all-time high and is on track for an annual rise +50%, while the US dollar is under pressure.Meanwhile, data out overnight shows there was a huge drop in US mortgage applications last week, the largest in nearly a year. Refinance activity dropped the most, but finance for new home purchases dropped notably too. Benchmark mortgage interest rates didn't move much, up just +12 bps and still on a declining trend.News on their labour market front wasn't good for September either. In advance of this weekend's non-farm payrolls report, the ADP Employment Report was expected to reveal a low +50,000 jobs gain. But in fact it came in with a -32,000 jobs loss for the month. It isn't clear yet whether the non-farm payrolls report will be released given the shutdown. The ADP version may be all the markets get on how the giant US labour market is tracking.And it really isn't any better on the factory floor. The latest ISM factory PMIfor September is still in contraction (49.1) with the new order component retreating from August. (But the S&P Global factory PMI which we reported last week is a bit more upbeat. Even so it reports slowing demand.)All this will depress American economic growth. But it may also raise inflation. The frequent shocks to global supply chains from factors such as the American tariffs leave central banks with limited tools to combat rising risks of inflation, according to the Governor of the Canadian central bank in a recent interview.Canada's factories are slowing too.Across the Pacific, similar factory PMIs show Japan contracting, Korea moving back into expansion on strong new orders, Taiwan going backwards, and Indonesia in a minor expansion again on the back of better new orders.So it won't be a surprise to lean that September exports from Korea rose sharply to their best level since mid-2024.In China, their Golden Week national holiday is underway, starting an enormous surge in travel by vacationers. International markets will notice the surge.In Australia, Cotality is reporting a surge in house prices driven by a worrying combination of low new supply, very low listing levels, and new low-deposit arrangements bringing in more demand. House prices jumped in all capital cities in September, led by Perth and Brisbane, but the most notable change is the rise in Sydney.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.11%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3870/oz, up +US$23 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is back up to US$47.50/oz.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just under US$62/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$65.50/bbl and down -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.1 USc and up +10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are up +40 bps at 88 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at 49.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.3, and also up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$117,765 and up +4.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US faces a federal government shutdown as markets start to realise Trump has no problem being reckless and has no problem hurting his 'friends'..But first, there was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in USD terms. In fact these prices are now at their lowest level of 2025. But because the NZD is falling, the prices achieved actually rose about the same amount in local currency.In the US, the number of job openings in August were virtually unchanged from July at 7.2 mln as was expected.But the Chicago PMI fell again in September, well below market expectations that it would improve. And the dip was sharp, the most in three months.Also weaker was the Dallas Fed services sector with their retail sector retreating rather fast in an unusual move lower.Adding to the downbeat sentiment was the September report from the Conference Board showing consumers are glummer than at any time since the start of the year. A common theme in the survey responses is the impact of rising inflation.And the downbeat sentiment may well get worse, and quickly. The White House seems to relish a full government shutdown to start their fiscal year tomorrow with mass firings rather than furloughs. And Trump says some American cities he considers dangerous should become training grounds for American troops, proposing 'his' troops be used to fight other Americans in their home cities. It is getting toxic very fast there.For their economy, there is a real possibility now that this weekend's non-farm payrolls release will be cancelled because the department releasing it will be closed. If that turns out to be the case, it could mask some quite weak results. Analysts now expect less than a +50,000 gain.Financial markets are downplaying the risks of all this, mainly because there have been many 'shutdown' crises over the decades. But at least the earlier ones involved parties prepared to reach a deal. Maybe not this time.Across the Pacific in China, their official factory PMI contracted again. But even though it is the sixth straight monthly contraction, the pace of decline was the least in that time. (Their factory PMI rose in February and March, but only by marginal levels.) Their official services PMI for September is no longer expanding. These official PMIs have been more conservative than the private surveys (RatingDog, ex Caixin) probably because they have a heavier weighting to Chinese SOEs. The private ones are more attuned to private and foreign enterprises, surveyed by S&P Global, and they report a faster expanding factory sector, and solidly expanding services sector.Meanwhile, China has frozen imports of BHP iron ore in a pricing dispute. BHP is their third largest supplier after Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale.Taiwanese consumer sentiment rose in September, but to be fair the bar is low because it has been stunted since May.In Europe, Germany said their CPI inflation edged up to 2.4% in September, marginally above the August level. But ist was a rise that was slightly more than expected.In Australia, there were no surprises from their central bank which held its cash rate target at 3.6%. But even though this hold was all priced in, there was some surprising reaction in financial markets. Somehow the decision was regarded as 'hawkish' and the AUD rose and benchmark bond interest rates fell on the news. The strong currency remained although the bond move was later reversed. Air cargo volumes in August grew +4.1% globally, driven by a near +10% rise from a year ago in the Asia/Pacific region. But notably, North American air cargo volumes fell -2.1% on the same basis in August, the weakest global region. And the pattern was similar for passenger travel. Asia/Pacific and Latin America brought strong growth, underpinning a +4.6% expansion, but North America lagged here too, only up +0.5% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3846/oz, up +US$16 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is -50 USc softer however.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl and down more than -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -30 bps at 87.6 AUc and a new three year low. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,876 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

A estrategista-chefe de investimentos do BB Private, Julia Baulé, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Na Europa, os PMIs mostraram recuperação nos serviços, mas contração na indústria, com destaque positivo para a Alemanha e queda na França e Reino Unido. No Brasil, a ata do Copom confirmou a manutenção da Selic em 15%, enquanto o IPCA-15 voltou a subir e o dólar se manteve estável. O Banco Central revisou para baixo a projeção do PIB de 2025, e a confiança do consumidor teve leve alta. Para os próximos dias, o foco estará nos dados de emprego nos EUA, na prévia da inflação na Europa e, no Brasil, na divulgação da produção industrial, taxa de desemprego e votação das MPs que tratam da isenção do IR até R$ 5 mil e da tributação de LCIs e LCAs."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report and the Electric vehicle sector. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference in London. In Asia – a look ahead to the China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report and the Electric vehicle sector. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference in London. In Asia – a look ahead to the China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Tomás Goulart, Sarah Campos e Victor Ary debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, os PMIs americanos mostraram moderação na atividade e nos preços. Entretanto, a revisão do PIB e os pedidos de auxílio desemprego abaixo do esperado reforçaram a resiliência da atividade. Dados recentes de agosto, como pedidos de bens duráveis e consumo real, surpreenderam positivamente. Na Europa, os PMIs vieram em linha com as expectativas. No campo geopolítico, tensões voltaram a crescer após declarações de Trump sobre apoio a contraofensivas ucranianas. No Brasil, o IPCA-15 de setembro veio abaixo do esperado. A ata do Copom e o Relatório de Política Monetária mantiveram tom conservador, demonstrando preocupação com a trajetória desancorada das expectativas e confiança na desaceleração da atividade econômica. No cenário político, manifestações da esquerda ganharam força no final de semana e pressionaram a retirada de pautas sensíveis do Congresso, como a PEC da Blindagem. Ainda, o noticiário foi repleto de informações divergentes sobre as candidaturas de direita para 2026. No mercado de crédito, as emissões no primário foram um pouco mais fracas, com cerca de R$7,2 bi de emissões tradicionais e R$2,9 bi de incentivadas. Os índices DI core e DI low rated abriram 5 e 6,8 bps, respectivamente, enquanto o índice de incentivadas fechou mais 7 bps. Porém, as atenções ficaram voltadas para as repercussões dos cases de Ambipar e Braskem, esclarecidos no episódio. Nos EUA, a curva de juros abriu ao longo de todos os vértices, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho negativo (S&P 500 -0,31%). No Brasil, a curva de juros também abriu, o Ibovespa caiu 0,29% e, o real, 0,37%. Na próxima semana, destaque para dados de mercado de trabalho e possibilidade de shutdown nos EUA, inflação na Europa e emprego e atividade no Brasil.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report and the Electric vehicle sector. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference in London. In Asia – a look ahead to the China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textDollar traders eagerly await ISM PMIs and US jobs report. RBA to remain on hold, focus to fall on forward guidance. Eurozone CPI data could revive ECB rate cut bets. Yen traders may scrutinize the BoJ Summary of Opinions.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

In Round 1, PMIS saw only 280 companies offered 82,000 internships to students. Only 28,000 candidates accepted opportunities with the firms and ultimately, just 8,725 joined.  

US equities struggled to keep up with the recent momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 posting its worst day in three weeks, while the NASDAQ and the Magnificent 7 saw even larger declines. Questions around the Nvidia-OpenAI-deal weighed on segment. Over in Europe, there was much more of a risk-on tone after the September flash PMIs painted a picture of ongoing resilience. Powell did not offer any groundbreaking revelations in yesterday's press conference, reiterating his arguments for last week's rate cut. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses what the restarted rate cutting cycle means for equities going into year end, as well as what he thinks about Swiss equities after August's tariff shock.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:52) - Equity market update and outlook: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:40) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Latest business activity PMIs from Europe showed a mixed picture in the Eurozone and brought fresh concerns over the health of the British economy. Does the latter shift the outlook for the BoE? And what do bond investors think about the Federal Reserve's latest decision? Our analysts also dissect the latest monetary policy decisions in Scandinavia, where both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank joined the Fed in cutting interest rates.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts. there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, with NVIDIA to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI.US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly; EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday.European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Future +0.1% after cash closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, Riksbank Announcement; NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB's Cipollone, BoC's Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany, US; Earnings from Micron, Kingfisher.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses gradually climb higher and currently at peaks; US equity futures are flat awaiting Fed Chair Powell.GBP hit by soft PMI, Eurozone data showed diverging fortunes for manufacturing and services.USTs are essentially flat; Gilts modestly out-edge peers following disappointing flash PMI metrics.Crude initially in the red but have managed to climb higher, XAU at another ATH, catching a bid on reports that China aims to become custodian of foreign gold reserves.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB's Cipollone, BoC's Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from the US; Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the latest data shows American business activity slowing further.But first up this morning we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse event brought little-change to either the ASMP or WMP prices. This is as expected for SMP but 'better' than expected for WMP. In NZD however there was a rise because the Kiwi dollar fell. All eyes are now on tomorrows Fonterra annual report.There were also no surprises in the S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US for September. Both their flash factory and services PMI reading eased slightly, but are not contracting. Growth may be slowing, but selling price inflation is cooling too. The report noted weak new order growth and tariff-taxes were widely cited as the main cause of sharply higher costs, but the weaker demand and stiff competition reportedly limited the scope to raise selling prices,And that is confirmed in the Richmond Fed factory survey which turned down sharply in September. New order levels were weak, cost pressures strong. Services in the same mid-Atlantic area were not very positive either.There was another very large US Treasury 2yr Note auction today, one that saw another pull-back in overall support although the coverage remains strong. The median yield dipped to 3.52% from 3.60% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, Nikkei has found that retail consumer loans are going bad faster, the latest headache for Chinese lenders already plagued by the country's real estate problems. And it comes just when the government aims to stimulate consumption through increased consumer debt backed up by more public borrowings. Nikkei Asia combed through the latest interim disclosures by mainland banks listed in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong and found that nonperforming personal loans rose at a faster pace than those in the real estate sector during the first half of the year.Overnight, Taiwan reported yet another outstandingly good export orders data, again exceeding the expected very good expansion.Super Typhoon Ragasa is expected to hit Hong Kong today, and they are still expecting up to a 5m storm surge (above chart datum). But the eye of the storm is passing slightly south, so it will affect large parts of southern China.India's PMI's were again very expansionary in September for both their services and factory sectors. No signs of cooling in this market.In Europe, their PMIs continue with a modest expansion, even if it is their best in 16 months. But new order levels are only holding, not growing. And the factory sector is now not expanding.And the Swedes delivered a surprise cut to their policy rate, down -25 bps to 1.75%. They cited geopolitical tensions and uncertain US trade policy as the reasons for the move now even though they are experiencing good current growth with inflation up at 3.2% when 2% is their target.In Australia, their PMI's reveal a pullback in September but both sectors are still expanding.Globally, the OECD reported that the global economy was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, but downside risks loom large as higher barriers to trade and geopolitical and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity in many economies. New Zealand doesn't feature in this report, but is sees Australian growth rising, Chinese growth holding at a reasonably good level, and US growth halving to a weak level by 2026.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3781/oz, up another +US$45 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver was little-changed but still up over US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 88.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.7, down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,974 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Sarah Campos, Yara Cordeiro e Victor Ary debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana. No cenário internacional, o destaque foi a decisão do Fed, que cortou os juros em 25 bps, como esperado. Apesar de projeções atualizadas indicando crescimento mais forte e inflação acima da meta em 2026, a decisão reflete maior preocupação com a desaceleração do mercado de trabalho. Outros bancos centrais também tomaram decisões: no Canadá, a redução também foi de 0,25%, como esperado, mas sem guidance relevante; na Inglaterra, o juro foi mantido inalterado, demonstrando ainda preocupação com a inflação elevada; e no Japão também não houve alteração, com tom mais hawkish. No Brasil, o Copom manteve a Selic em 15% e sinalizou ter ganhado convicção de ter chegado no patamar de juros suficientemente restritivo, apesar de manter a possibilidade de retomada do ciclo de alta caso necessário. A projeção de inflação para 2026 foi mantida em 3,4%, o que reduz a probabilidade de cortes ainda este ano. Do lado de atividade, a taxa de desemprego cedeu e rendimentos subiram, reforçando resiliência do mercado de trabalho. A Câmara aprovou regime de urgência para o projeto de anistia aos envolvidos no 8/1; a “PEC da blindagem”, que gerou repercussão negativa; e a MP que garante ampliação da isenção da conta de luz. As pesquisas de opinião, apesar de mistas, mostraram estagnação na aprovação do governo. No mercado de crédito, o fluxo de captação seguiu positivo, pressionando o mercado secundário. No mercado primário, houve emissão de R$5 bi de debêntures tradicionais, e R$2,5 bi de incentivadas. Observou-se fechamento de 6 bps na parcela “low rated” do índice e 5 bps na parcela de infraestrutura. Nos EUA, a curva de juros abriu nos vértices longos e fechou nos curtos, com S&P 500 em alta de 1,22%. No Brasil, os juros fecharam, o Ibovespa subiu 2,53% e o real se valorizou 0,57%. Na próxima semana, atenção ao PCE e PMIs nos EUA, além das falas de dirigentes do Fed. No Brasil, destaque para ata do Copom, IPCA-15 de setembro, RPM e o Relatório Bimestral de Receitas e Despesas do governo. Confira!

Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference. So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle. Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum. And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front? Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth. Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable. And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline growth here is effectively zero. Michelle Weaver: And how does power play into the reshoring story? AI and data centers are generating huge demand for power that well outstrip supply. Is there a risk that companies that want to reshore are not able to do so because of the power constraints?Christopher Snyder: It's a great question. I think it's part of the reason that this is moving more slowly. The companies that sell this power equipment tend to prioritize the data center customers given their scale in magnitude of buying. But ultimately, we think this is coming and it's a big opportunity for U.S. power to extend the upcycle.Manufacturing accounts for 26 percent of the electricity in the country. Data center accounts for about 5 percent. So, if the industrial economy returns to growth, there will be a huge pull on the grid; and I view it as a competitive advantage. If you think about the future of U.S. manufacturing, we're simply taking labor out and replacing it with electricity. That is a phenomenal trade off for the U.S. And a not as positive trade off for a lot of low-cost regions who essentially export labor to the world. I'm sure Adam will have more to say about that. Michelle Weaver: And Adam, I want to bring robotics and humanoid specifically into this conversation as the U.S.' technological edge is a big part of the reshoring story. So how do humanoids fit into reshoring? How much would they cost to use and how could they make American manufacturing more attractive? Adam Jonas: Humanoid robots – we're talking age agentic robots that make decisions from themselves autonomously due to the dual purpose in the military. You know, dual purpose aspect of it makes it absolutely necessary to onshore the technologies.At the same time, humanoid robots actually make it possible to onshore those technologies. Meaning you need; we're not going to be able to replicate manufacturing and onshore manufacturing the way it's currently done in China with their environmental practices and their labor – availability of affordable cheap human labor.Autonomous robots are both the cause of onshoring. And the effect of onshoring at the same time, and it's going to transform every industry. The question isn't so much as which industry will autonomous robots, including humanoids impact? It's what will it not.And we have not yet been able to find anything that it would. When you think about cost to use – we think by 2040 we get to a point where to Chris's point, the marginal cost of work will be some factor of electricity, energy, and some depreciation of that physical plant, or the physical robot itself. And we come up with a, a range of scenarios where centered on around $5 per hour. If that can replace two human workers at $25 an hour, that can NPV to around $200,000 of NPV per humanoid. That's discounting back 15 years from 2040.Michelle, there's 160 million people in the U.S. labor market, so if you just substituted 1 percent of that or 1.6 million people out of the U.S. Labor pool. 1.6 million times $200,000 NPV; that's $320 billion of value, which is worth, well, quite a lot. Quite a lot of money to a lot of companies that are working on this. So, when we get asked, what are we watching, well, in terms of the bleeding edge of the robot revolution, we're watching the Sino-U.S. competition. And I prefer to call it competition. And we're also watching the terra cap companies, the Mag 7 type companies that are quite suddenly and recently and very, very significantly going after physical AI and robotics talent. And increasingly even manufacturing talent. So again, to circle back to Chris's point, if you want evidence of reshoring and manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in this country, look at some of these TMT and tech and AI companies in California. And look at, go on their hiring website and watch all the manufacturing and robotics people that they're trying to hire; and pay a lot of money to do so. And that might be an interesting indicator of where we're going.Michelle Weaver: I want to dig in a little bit more there. We're seeing a lot of the cutting-edge tech coming out of China. Is the U.S. going to be able to catch up?Adam Jonas: Uh, I don't know. I don't know. But I would say what's our alternative. We either catch up enough to compete or we're up for grabs. OK?I would say from our reading and working closely with our team in China, that in many aspects of supply chain, manufacturing, physical AI, China is ahead. And with the passage of time, they are increasingly ahead. We estimate, and we can't be precise here, that China's lead on the U.S. would not only last three to five years, but might even widen three to five years from now. May even widen at an accelerating rate three to five years from now.And so, it brings into play is what kind of environment and what kind of regulatory, and policy decisions we made to help kind of level the playing field and encourage the right kind of manufacturing. We don't want to encourage trailing edge, Victorian era manufacturing in the U.S. We want to encourage, you know, to skate to where the puck is going technology that can help improve our world and create a sustainable abundance rather than an unsustainable one. And so, we're watching China very, very closely. It makes us a little bit; makes me a little bit kind of nervous when we – if we see the government put the thumb on the scale too much.But it's invariably going to happen. You're going to have increased involvement of whichever administration it is in order to kind of set policies that can encourage innovation, education of our young people, repurposing of labor, you know. All these people making machines in this country now. They might get, there may be a displacement over a number of years, if not a generation.But we need those human bodies to do other things in this economy as well. So, we; I don't want to give the impression at all in our scenarios that we don't need people anymore. Michelle Weaver: What are the opportunities and the risks that you see for investors as robotics converges with this broader U.S. manufacturing story? Adam Jonas: Well, Michelle, we see both opportunities and risks. There are the opportunities that you can measure in terms of what portion of global GDP of [$]115 trillion could you look at. I mean, labor alone is $40 trillion.And if you really make humanoid that can do the work of two workers, guess what? You're not going to stop at [$]40 trillion. You're going to go beyond that. You might go multiple beyond that. Talking about the world before AI, robotics and humanoid is like talking about the world before electricity. Or talking about business before the internet. We don't think we're exaggerating, but the proof will be in the capital formation. And that's where we hope we can be of assistance to our clients working together on a variety of investment ideas. But the risks will come and it is our professional responsibility, if not our moral responsibility, to work with our partners across research to talk about those risks. Michelle, if we have labor displacement, go too quickly, there's serious problems. And if you don't, if you don't believe me, go look at, look at you know, the French Revolution or the Industrial Revolution, or Age of Enlightenments. Ages of scientific enlightenment frequently cohabitate times of great social and political turmoil as well. And so, we think that these risks must be seen in parallel if we want to bring forth technologies that can make us more human rather than less human. I'm sorry if I'm coming across as a little preachy, but if you studied robots and labor all day long, it does have that effect on you. So, Michelle, how do you see innovation priorities changing for industrials and investors in this environment?Michelle Weaver: I think it's huge as we're seeing AI and technology broadly diffuse across different segments of the market, it's only becoming more important. About two-thirds of companies at the conference mentioned AI in some way, shape, or form. We know that from transcripts. And we're seeing them continue to integrate AI into their businesses. They're trying to go beyond what we've just seen at the initial edge. So, for example, if I think about what was going on within AI adoption a couple years ago, it was largely adding a chat bot to your website that's then able to handle a lot of customer service inquiries. Maybe you could reduce the labor there a little bit. Now we're starting to see a lot more business specific use cases. So, for example, with an airline, an airline company is using AI to most optimally gate different planes as they're landing to try and reduce connection times. They know which staff needs to go to another flight to connect, which passengers need to move to another flight. They're able to do that much more efficiently. You're seeing a lot on AI being adopted within manufacturing to make manufacturing processes a lot more seamless. So, I think innovation is only going to continue to become more important to not only industrials, but broadly the entire market as well.Clearly the industry is being shaped by adaptability, collaboration, and a focus on innovation. So, Chris, Adam, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Adam Jonas: Always a pleasure. Michelle.Christopher Snyder: Thank you for having us on. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

US equity futures are slightly softer. Asia ended mixed, and European markets are lower. Markets remain focused on Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, with September rate cut odds falling below 80% after hawkish Fedspeak and stronger US flash PMIs. July FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, though the impact was muted by subsequent labor data; US flash PMIs showed the strongest manufacturing and services readings in over a year, but input prices rose sharply, adding stagflation concerns alongside the weaker Philadelphia Fed survey; Markets continue to track AI-driven equity pullbacks and tariff headlines, with investors bracing for possible US chip tariff announcements.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Boeing, Tesla

Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders' Summit in October, "dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit"; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by ReutersEuropean bourses move higher; US equity futures also gain as the RTY +0.4% outperforms; NVIDIA -1% after H20 production halt.DXY holds an upward bias post-PMIs on Thursday, whilst fixed income trades steady into Fed Chair Powell.Choppy trade in the crude complex, as traders digest halts to the Druzhba pipeline; sideways trade across precious metals.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21st-23rd); Speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Hammack and Collins.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European bourses tilt lower with the region unable to benefit from better-than-feared PMIs; US equity futures are mixed.USD is mixed vs. peers, GBP is top of the G10 leaderboard post-PMI.Bonds are pressured after PMIs, lower UK borrowing fails to lift spirits ahead of the Autumn BudgetCrude is firmer as geopolitics remain in the limelight; Ukraine's Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EU Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fedʼs Bostic, Schmid, Goolsbee, Supply from US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.FOMC Minutes from the July meeting noted a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation was the greater risk compared with the labour market, although the meeting was conducted prior to the release of the latest NFP report with hefty downward revisions.Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs, UK PSNB, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EZ Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fed's Bostic, Supply from France & US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Dados de PMIs, vendas de imóveis, balanço do Walmart e fala de Bostic também no radar.

Inflation is rising, but the Fed's next moves hinge more on the labor market than the latest price prints. Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market, joins us to discuss: Inflation check: CPI roughly in line but trending higher; PPI surprised to the upside. Mark notes this likely points to a firmer core PCE later this month - but the question is persistence, not just direction. Fed priorities: Despite hotter inflation data, Powell has linked policy to labor-market balance (unemployment rate over payroll headlines). Markets overshot on cut odds after weak jobs data; expectations have since drifted back toward the Fed's guidance. Cuts & QT: Baseline view is ~50 bps of easing this year, with potential messaging around slowing/ending QT as part of reducing overall restrictiveness. Markets vs. data: Equities keep shrugging off noise (tariffs/geopolitics). Retail sales resilience underscores still-solid demand, tempering the case for aggressive cuts. U.S. dollar: The downtrend has resumed after a brief short-covering rally. For a big-picture read, watch U.S. rates more than cross-country differentials. Near-term catalysts: Expect a quieter macro week - flash PMIs and Jackson Hole (labor focus) ahead; the next jobs report is the true potential game-changer for September policy odds. Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers: US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.Fed rate cut bets surge -  Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.Trump escalates tariffs -  New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.Global slowdown signals -  Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China's PPI deflation deepens.Equity concentration risk -  S&P 500's top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump's Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.Stock spotlights - Palantir's sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals. Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.

US President Trump said they will have straight, simple tariffs of between 15% and 50% on countries, while he added the US is in serious talks with the EU and if they agree to open up to US businesses, US will let them pay lower tariffs.European bourses continue to gain, albeit are off best levels; US futures mixed, GOOGL +3%, TSLA -6% in pre-market trade.GBP lags on soft PMIs, EUR eyes ECB and potential EU-US breakthrough.EGBs hit by trade updates, Gilts off lows post-PMIs, USTs await data.Crude rises on trade optimism and geopolitics, gold unwinds risk premium.Looking ahead, Global PMIs, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway & ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US.Earnings from LVMH, Carrefour, Michelin, Intel, American Airlines, Blackstone, Dow Chemical, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Honeywell & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Luciana Taft, analista de AFI, analiza con lupa la deuda acumulada de Reino Unido, el banco de Inglaterra, la FED, la reunión de tipos del BCE y las lecturas preliminares de los PMIs de julio

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market website, joins us for this special Sunday editorial on the KE Report. Key topics discussed: Inflation Data: A closer look at why headline inflation remains above the 2% target and why base effects suggest future readings may edge higher. Fed Policy Outlook: Despite political noise, the Fed remains patient. Marc explains why some members (like Waller) are pushing for earlier cuts and how labor market weakness - not just inflation - may drive the next move. Market Reaction: Are potential Fed cuts already priced in? Why retail buying and FOMO are fueling equity highs, and what that means for risk ahead. Tariffs & Earnings: How shifting tariffs could pressure margins, stoke inflation, and impact upcoming earnings season. Global Events: What to watch this week: flash PMIs, the ECB meeting, Tokyo CPI - and why Japan's political backdrop is worth noting.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.

S&P Futures are weakening this morning in a reaction to Moody's lowering its credit rating on the U.S after markets closed on Friday. The downgrade was not unexpected as Fitch and S&P have already lowered their ratings. President Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill advanced through the House Budget Committee on Sunday night, overcoming a major hurdle after days of internal Republican disputes. Also, President Trump is scheduled to hold a call today with Russian President Putin today at 10:00 am to discuss a path forward to end hostilities with Ukraine. The key economic event in the week ahead will be the release of S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, along with data on existing and new home sales. Upcoming earnings reports from Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will be closely watched for how these major retailers are adapting to the evolving tariff landscape and broader economic headwinds.