Podcasts about pmis

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Global. That August factory PMI showed manufacturing output returned to growth in August. Total new business expanded at quickest pace since March. But it also reported the fastest rise in average input prices in nine months. As has become the norm in 2025, this private PMI series is more bullish than the official PMI.While we are noting improved factory PMIs in Australia and China, we should also note that they improved in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia as well. The Trump tariff-taxes aren't killing these countries. In fact, because it is the American importers who are paying these taxes (and ultimately the American consumer), the whole tariff journey just shows the American's are prepared to pay a lot more for what they import, and demand isn't flagging. Yet, anyway.Of special note is the regaining of momentum in India where their factory PMI turned notably higher on new orders and new-found momentum. This is now their fastest improvement in operating conditions in seventeen and a half years, with production growth accelerating to a nearly five-year high, supported by strong demand and better alignment of supply with orders. New orders rose at the fastest pace in nearly five years, and given they have been strong in the lead-up, this is really saying something.Even European factories are on the move up, returning to expansion with the sharpest rise in factory output since March 2022. Their factory PMI is now at its highest in 41 months.Australia's factory sector expansion accelerated again in August. Higher new order levels, supported by a rise in exports, led to a solid rise in production. Confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022. The survey showed that manufacturers hired more staff and raised their purchasing and inventory levels. Meanwhile price pressures remained little problem.And staying in Australia, their residential building consents fell -8.2% in July from June, almost double the market expectations of a -4.8% fall. This sharply ate into the upwardly revised +12.2% increase in June. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for dwellings that weren't houses (apartments and townhouses). By state, approvals fell sharpest in New South Wales (-25%), while rising in Tasmania (+12%), Western Australia (+12%), in Queensland (+5.9%).Lower new homebuilding is juicing up their existing-home real estate markets. Cotality reported strong August gains from July, up +0.7% for the month nationally. It's back as a strong sellers market. The rises in Brisbane and Perth are notable, but the gains in Adelaide and Sydney were not far behind them in August. The consequences for affordability for most aspiring buyers look awful.We should probably also note that the forecast for Australia's wheat crop was raised sharply in an overnight update. Good rains recently is behind the revision.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +62 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels. The price of gold will start today at US$3,477/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver topped US$40/oz for the first time since 2011, also near a record high.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$64.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps as well at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,918 and little-changed (down -0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Semaine #36. Chaque lundi matin nous servons le SILEXpresso, un condensé vocal de 5mn sur nos vues macro et allocation.  Retrouvez également le SILEXpresso, et bien plus encore, sur l'app SPARK :https://go.silex-partners.com/download/my_SPARK_appHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Raphael Félix, CFP®, CNPI, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Nos EUA, a demissão da diretora do Fed por Donald Trump elevou a incerteza política, enquanto o PIB do segundo trimestre surpreendeu positivamente. Na Europa, medidas para reduzir tarifas com os EUA deram algum fôlego aos mercados, e na China, o governo sinalizou estímulos para sustentar o crescimento. No Brasil, a inflação recuou, mas os indicadores de atividade mostraram fraqueza. Para os próximos dias, os destaques são o Payroll nos EUA e a produção industrial no Brasil. Nos EUA, os PMIs vieram fortes e Powell sinalizou possível corte de juros, apesar de alertar para riscos inflacionários. O dólar caiu e o S&P 500 fechou em alta. No Brasil, a curva de juros abriu nos prazos médios e longos, refletindo incertezas locais. O Ibovespa subiu, apoiado pelo cenário externo. Para os próximos dias, destaque para o IPCA-15, IGP-M e dados do Caged no Brasil, além do PCE e PIB nos EUA." Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump's global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.Then, over the weekend we got the official Chinese PMIs for August and they extended the sluggish environment their manufacturing sector finds itself in. Despite the 90 'extension' before punitive tariffs kick in with the US, orders contracted for a fifth consecutive month. On the services side however, they maintained their small expansion in August, albeit marginally better.But early data suggests their housing slump is not ending, maybe even getting worse. Sale volumes in August are likely to be more than -17% lower than a year ago.Although it is a shortened week in the US, it ends with the August jobs data. Markets expect another weak result (just +78,000). You will recall the weak data last month saw Trump fire the agency head who compiled it. So there will be special attention this time on its believability under the BLS agency's deputy. Before that we will get lead-up jobs data, the ISM PMIs for the US.Canada will also release labour market data. The EU inflation data, and others will release GDP data for Q2-2025, including from Australia on Wednesday.At the end of last week, July data out in the US shows that disposable personal income was up +2.0% from a year ago, personal consumption expenditure was up +2.1% on the same basis. On a month-on-month basis, the income was up +0.4% and expenditure up +0.5%. These elements are not major but they do indicate a tightening in household financial budgets.Nested deep within this release was that core PCE index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, its largest rise since February and above the Fed's target and comfort zone. Tariff costs are getting the blame. Financial markets noticed.And that is the same sort of tightening indicated by the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey. Its final August version fell back markedly from its initial readings, a clear indication households are finding it tougher. It is now -14% lower than a year ago. The Biden boom is now just a memory.On the factory floor, the latest indicators are shifting down too. The August Chicago PMI headed south quite sharply to be -10% below year-ago levels.And the US seems to be losing the tariff war it started - and Americans are paying the tariff-taxes. The latest trade data for July shows that the US merchandise trade deficit jumped to -US$104 billion in the month, exactly the same as July a year ago, and far above expectations of -US$90 bln deficit. It is their largest in four months. Imports jumped +7.1% from a month earlier, led by industrial supplies, capital goods, food, and consumer goods. Meanwhile, exports slipped -0.1%.Certainly, American farmers are not happy. And they have a President who probably doesn't even know where Pakistan is, let alone most other simple facts.In Canada, they got a sharp dose of shock in their Q2-2025 GDP result from the sharp turn on them from their southern neighbour. Their GDP fell -0.4% in the quarter and cancelling out the +0.5% gain in their first quarter. Year-on-year their GDP is still up +0.9% however.Across the Pacific the economic data is generally much more positive. South Korea's retail sales surged +2.5% in July from June, a big jump from a revised +0.7% increase in June and marking the fastest growth in over two years. From a year ago it is up +2.4% and that too is the most since January 2022.South Korean industrial production grew solidly in July as well, up +5.0% from a year ago.After a good gain in June, Japan's industrial production fell -1.6% in July, reversing a +2.1% June gain and much more than the -1.0% decline anticipated.Japanese retail sales only rose by +0.3% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +1.9% gain in June and falling well short of market expectations for a +1.8% increase.But Japanese consumer confidence actually rose in August to its best level of the year with gains across all surveyed questions.We should also note that protests in Jakarta on Friday that turned deadly have put Indonesia on edge. They have spread over the weekend. Canberra will be watching nervously.In Europe, the ECB's survey found that consumer inflation expectations were stable ("well anchored") in July at 2.6% for the year ahead.Globally, air passenger demand was up +4.0% in July, driven by the Asia/Pacific +5.7% rise and held back by the North American +1.9% rise. Most of this is due to international travel. Meanwhile, air cargo traffic was even stronger in July, up +5.5% from a year ago, up +6.0% for international trade. Asia/Pacific was the strongest region here too, up +11.0% for international cargoes. But North American international cargo volumes only rose +1.5%, the weakest global region.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, unchanged from Saturday, but down -3 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,447/oz, up another +US$5 from Saturday, and close to a new record high, but basically a measure of the USD markdown. A week ago it was at US$3,371/oz so a net +US$76 gainAmerican oil prices are again little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged as well at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.5, and unchanged from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,022 and up +0.5% from this time Saturday. But is down -6.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Allan Fukumoto, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento:"Nos EUA, os PMIs vieram fortes e Powell sinalizou possível corte de juros, apesar de alertar para riscos inflacionários. O dólar caiu e o S&P 500 fechou em alta. No Brasil, a curva de juros abriu nos prazos médios e longos, refletindo incertezas locais. O Ibovespa subiu, apoiado pelo cenário externo. Para os próximos dias, destaque para o IPCA-15, IGP-M e dados do Caged no Brasil, além do PCE e PIB nos EUA."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights.Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

US equity futures are slightly softer. Asia ended mixed, and European markets are lower. Markets remain focused on Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, with September rate cut odds falling below 80% after hawkish Fedspeak and stronger US flash PMIs. July FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, though the impact was muted by subsequent labor data; US flash PMIs showed the strongest manufacturing and services readings in over a year, but input prices rose sharply, adding stagflation concerns alongside the weaker Philadelphia Fed survey; Markets continue to track AI-driven equity pullbacks and tariff headlines, with investors bracing for possible US chip tariff announcements.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Boeing, Tesla

Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders' Summit in October, "dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit"; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by ReutersEuropean bourses move higher; US equity futures also gain as the RTY +0.4% outperforms; NVIDIA -1% after H20 production halt.DXY holds an upward bias post-PMIs on Thursday, whilst fixed income trades steady into Fed Chair Powell.Choppy trade in the crude complex, as traders digest halts to the Druzhba pipeline; sideways trade across precious metals.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21st-23rd); Speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Hammack and Collins.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea han dado los siguientes pasos para formalizar su pacto comercial, detallando planes que podrían reducir los aranceles sobre los automóviles europeos en cuestión de semanas, a la vez que abren la puerta a nuevos descuentos potenciales para el acero y el aluminio. Los futuros de Wall Street apuntan a nuevos descensos después de una racha de ventas en las grandes tecnológicas. Los inversores se mantienen cautelosos antes de la reunión de la Reserva Federal en Jackson Hole. Las actas de la Fed muestran que la mayoría de los miembros del banco central estadounidense destacan que los riesgos inflacionistas superan las preocupaciones sobre el mercado laboral. La dirección de los mercados hoy también podría estar determinada por los PMIs, los datos de ventas de viviendas y los resultados de Walmart. El gigante de la distribución mejora sus previsiones pero alerta del aumento de los costes por los aranceles. La compañía ha comenzado a incrementar precios en algunos productos. En Europa, se impone también la cautela y la recogida de beneficios, a pesar de un buen dato de PMIs. Primer análisis de jornada en 'Cierre de Mercados' con Luis Benguerel, gestor independiente.

Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European bourses tilt lower with the region unable to benefit from better-than-feared PMIs; US equity futures are mixed.USD is mixed vs. peers, GBP is top of the G10 leaderboard post-PMI.Bonds are pressured after PMIs, lower UK borrowing fails to lift spirits ahead of the Autumn BudgetCrude is firmer as geopolitics remain in the limelight; Ukraine's Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EU Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fedʼs Bostic, Schmid, Goolsbee, Supply from US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.FOMC Minutes from the July meeting noted a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation was the greater risk compared with the labour market, although the meeting was conducted prior to the release of the latest NFP report with hefty downward revisions.Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs, UK PSNB, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EZ Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fed's Bostic, Supply from France & US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Dados de PMIs, vendas de imóveis, balanço do Walmart e fala de Bostic também no radar.

Dados de PMIs, vendas de imóveis, balanço do Walmart e fala de Bostic também no radar.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial world is waiting for Fed boss Powell's Jackson Hole scene setting speech.In the meantime, US initial jobless claims held steady last week from the prior week at +195,000. But in fact seasonal factors should have produced a good fall. So seasonally adjusted, they are reporting an unexpected rise. The number of people on these benefits held at 1.97 mln when they usually retreat at this time of year. Analysts are flagging concerns about the lack of progress. A year ago they fell to 1.86 mln, so they are +110,000 higher now than then.US existing home sales rose, and by more than expected in July and only the second month-on-month gain of 2025. They ran at the rate of 4 mln per year, the best level since February. However, the stock of unsold homes swelled (to 19 weeks of supply), and the latest sales came with the average selling price dropping, now at US$422,400.More generally, around their overnight earnings release, the Walmart CEO noted that tariff-tax price pressure is driving up prices on a weekly basis now. However, they reckon they will get a net benefit as shoppers turn to them from others forced into even higher increases.And the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell in July, extending its 2025 retreat and at a faster pace in the past six months than the prior six months. Keeping the pressure on this index are the retreats in new orders, and weak consumer sentiment.The Philly Fed's factory survey certainly shows the new order problem which turned negative in August. And firms report that inflation is embedding at higher levels for their input costs. There is a sense that this heartland manufacturing region is starting to go backwards again. Those in this survey 'expect growth' in the future, but they have been signaling that for all of 2025 and if that aspect turns, things will possibly feel a bit grim there.But the early August S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US are not downbeat. On the factory side, they report a good recovery from July. On the services side a slip from a still-expanding base. They also report faster input inflation as they paid the tariff-taxes.The Canadians also reported rising input costs in their PPI release overnight.Japanese business is on the rise. Business activity across Japan's private sector expanded at the fastest rate since February midway through the third quarter, according to the August PMI survey data. The upturn was supported by a fresh increase in factory production alongside a further solid rise in activity at service providers. Total new business also expanded at the quickest rate in six months, though this was driven solely by the service sector. New export business fell at a steeper rate, however.In China, it is becoming clearer that officials are increasingly worried about strained finances at central and local government agencies, and that both firms and employees are suffering from delayed payments. Apparently, the pressures are severe, warranting President's Xi's attention. Special bond issues are underway to juice up the necessary funding.In Europe, the flash PMI reports indicate an improving situation for both manufacturers, and in the service sector. New orders increased for first time in 15 months in August. The factory PMI rose to expansion and its best in more than three years. Its services sector expanded faster, although like everything in Europe the benchmarks are not high compared to the rest of the world.Overall EU consumer sentiment held at modest levels in August, although to be direct, they are still substantially negative and remain lower than their long-run average.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit August PMIs are quite upbeat. They said Australia's business activity growth accelerated midway through the third quarter, with faster expansions across both the manufacturing and service sectors. This was supported by higher new work inflows, including a renewed expansion in exports. In turn, Australian private sector firms raised their staffing levels at a faster rate to cope with additional workloads. Business sentiment also improved slightly from July.Australian consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.9% in August from 4.7% in July, easing for the second straight month and marking the lowest level since March.And energy regulator AEMO says more wind, solar and storage capacity was added over the past year to the electricity grid in Queensland, NSW and Victoria than in any year before. The risk of blackouts and service disruptions is fading, they say.Globally, container shipping freight rates fell -4% last week from the prior week to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although year-ago there was extensive stress from tensions in the Red Sea. All the weakness currently is in outbound cargoes from China. Bulk cargo freight rates fell -5% over the past week, but they are still +10% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1 to just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.2, and up +10 bps helped by a gain against the yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea han dado los siguientes pasos para formalizar su pacto comercial, detallando planes que podrían reducir los aranceles sobre los automóviles europeos en cuestión de semanas, a la vez que abren la puerta a nuevos descuentos potenciales para el acero y el aluminio. Los futuros de Wall Street apuntan a nuevos descensos después de una racha de ventas en las grandes tecnológicas. Los inversores se mantienen cautelosos antes de la reunión de la Reserva Federal en Jackson Hole. Las actas de la Fed muestran que la mayoría de los miembros del banco central estadounidense destacan que los riesgos inflacionistas superan las preocupaciones sobre el mercado laboral. La dirección de los mercados hoy también podría estar determinada por los PMIs, los datos de ventas de viviendas y los resultados de Walmart. El gigante de la distribución mejora sus previsiones pero alerta del aumento de los costes por los aranceles. La compañía ha comenzado a incrementar precios en algunos productos. En Europa, se impone también la cautela y la recogida de beneficios, a pesar de un buen dato de PMIs. Primer análisis de jornada en 'Cierre de Mercados' con Luis Benguerel, gestor independiente.

A estrategista-chefe de investimentos do BB Private, Julia Baulé, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento:"Nos Estados Unidos, os dados de inflação ao consumidor (CPI) vieram abaixo das expectativas, enquanto o índice de preços ao produtor (PPI) surpreendeu com alta de 0,9%, elevando a inflação anual para 3,3% e reduzindo as apostas em cortes agressivos de juros pelo Fed. As vendas no varejo e a atividade industrial mostraram resiliência, reforçando a leitura de uma economia ainda aquecida. No Brasil, o governo lançou o plano Brasil Soberano em resposta às tarifas impostas pelos EUA, enquanto o setor de serviços cresceu 0,3% e o Ibovespa teve desempenho misto. O IPCA de julho veio abaixo das projeções, reforçando a expectativa de cortes na Selic ainda em 2025. Para os próximos dias, destaque para a ata do FOMC e os PMIs nos EUA, além da divulgação do IGP-M e IBC-BR no Brasil."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers: US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.Fed rate cut bets surge -  Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.Trump escalates tariffs -  New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.Global slowdown signals -  Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China's PPI deflation deepens.Equity concentration risk -  S&P 500's top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump's Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.Stock spotlights - Palantir's sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals. Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction.But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought results similar to what the derivatives market expected, maybe slightly better because of show early season strength in WMP demand and prices. Volumes sold were the highest since October 2024. And helping the tone was the fall in the NZD which boosted the rise in local currency. Overall the event ended up +0.7% in USD and up +1.5% in NZD. The industry will be satisfied the new season is off to a good start.On the butter demand front, there was a noted fall off in demand at these prices - except frim China and Middle East buyers. There is enough there to keep prices elevated, although to be fair the butter price did ease +3.8% at this event.Meanwhile, the widely watched American ISM services PMI unexpectedly fell in July 2025 from June, and the result was lower than expected. The services sector is now nearly stagnant, with seasonal and weather factors having a negative impact on business. A slowdown was most evident in the fall in new orders - activity is still operating faster than new orders are arriving so that is not great for the future. Not slowing are price increases, so all the signs of stagflation here. However, the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version told a more upbeat story.US exports fell in June from May but the fall was only minor, and from a year ago there were up +3.3%. US imports fell more sharply in the month to be -1.4% below year-ago levels. But that only results in their trade deficit being back to mif 2024 levels. Or 2023 levels. The needle has moved very little.But the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey rose in July although the move was minor. It mirrored the month's equity markets and this index also hit a 4 year high.American household debt rose by +US$185 bln in the June quarter to a new record high of US$18.4 tln. That is now 60.6% of GDP. The flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and car loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly.In India, their services PMI tells a booming story. International orders and overall sales rose sharply from the fastest increase in business activity for 11 months. However, price pressures re-accelerated, so this boom comes with inflation consequences. It's a report in sharp contrast to the lackluster American equivalents. "Someone" is quite envious of their success and is threatening sharply higher tariffs.Meanwhile Trump is signaling that their endless 'truce' with China will get another extension.And China delivered a positive data surprise yesterday, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June's nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.That is in contrast to the EU services PMI which remains weak, although it is still expanding.Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago - and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation's impact), it is up +0.7%.Join us at 10:45am for the New Zealand labour market report for June, although it might just confirm the tough operating environment we are in.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,379/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just under US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$113,625 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere.First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, although they are still up +6.6% from a year ago. The June falls were largely driven by a -22% plunge in transportation equipment orders. This same data confirmed the earlier durable goods order decrease in June of -9.4%.We are awaiting important services PMIs for July and they are expected to be much better than those for their factory sector.American economic uncertainty is now well embedded in consumer behaviour. Some brands are really suffering, and causing large writedowns.Meanwhile, American vehicle sales rose in July to an annualised rate of 16.4 mln, slightly more than expected because they got a boost ahead of expected price increases from the August 1 tariff-taxes. But the boost was relatively minor, just +3.6% ahead of the same level in July 2024.In China, parts of the country are battling heavier-than-usual rainfall. And that includes Beijing itself, a city of 22 mln. Dozens of people have died in flooding already. They are expecting 200 mm of rain to fall over the next 24 hours, on top of what they have had which created their emergency. Beijing's normal annual rainfall is 600 mm.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June's modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders - and mortgage holders - as the year unfolds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,372/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -US$1 to just under US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, down -10 bps as well.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,217 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low again at just under +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy.But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in June (and May). That would make it its highest since 2016 and exceeding anything we had in the pandemic period.Elsewhere the week will feature a raft of PMI and factory order releases. Plus, China will release key trade and inflation data.But the big economic driver for the week will be market reactions to Trump's tariff-war moves and his drive to bend both the Fed and the economic data agencies in the US to show fealty to him and avoid any negative reports. On Friday they sensed all this isn't good for the US economy and turned sharply risk averse even though corporate earnings reports have stayed positive.And that was because of Trump's response to official data he didn't like. He moved to fire the head of the data agency who reported it.Then a voting Fed official resigned, giving him a chance to twist more independence out of this crucial institution.The release of the July US labour market report showed the headline jobs gain was only +73,000 when +110,000 was expected. But worse, the June data was revised sharply lower to just +14,000 from the original +147,000. Their jobless rate edged higher to 4.2%. The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks has topped 1.8 mln now, the highest since the pandemic. Wage growth for the low-paid was unusually weak. This is a huge miss and there were sharp financial market reactions.Those are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The actual numbers are much worse, down -1,066,000 in July from June. To be fair much of that actual shrinkage is seasonal, but at 159.3 mln people employed, that is lower than in November 2024 when Trump won office.But with this July stumble in their labour market, it will be no surprise to know that the ISM factory PMI shows the same sharp retreat. In June this PMI was contracting with a 49.0 index level. It was expected to improve to a smaller contraction of 49.5. (An index level of 50 is the fulcrum between expansion and contraction.) But it went the other way, deepening its contraction to 48.0. Driving the retreat were new orders and order backlogs contracting, along with input costs increasing and exports falling. Overall, this is reporting their factory sector is contracting faster. (The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI version also reported a sharp drop info contraction in July, also largely on stagnating new order levels.)In China, like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July too. The Caixin survey isn't as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.China recognises the need to do more to stimulate internal consumption, and they are now committed to using subsidies as a key tool. Essentially they are subsidising trade-in prices to generate sales of new items. The target is to raise this subsidy level to ¥300 bln in 2025. On Friday they announced another ¥69 bln in ultra-long special treasury bonds will be issued for this purpose, the fourth tranche in the program.Another policy action announced on Friday involves their war on "involution", which they take to mean excessive or irresponsible competition involving a general race to the bottom. It was a feature of their housing crisis, and is a big worry for their car manufacturing industry. Top-down pressure to rein in this sort of behaviour is intense now. In fact, BYD is now indicating their production levels will be lower in future.However in Japan, Toyota has told suppliers that it aims to boost 2025 global production to about 10 million vehicles, underpinned by strong sales of hybrids despite concerns over the impact of American tariffs. (In the US, carmaker Ford is noting that tariffs are not helping them.)In Singapore, the latest PMI readings painted a mixed manufacturing outlook with the electronics sector in continued expansion whereas the overall manufacturing sector reverted to a marginal contraction. Declining now order levels caused the shift.In India, the growth of factory orders and production strengthened in July, driving their factory PMI up to an impressive 59.1, although that was a touch less than the result expected. Indian factories are easily the star of the show on a global basis.The EU released its July inflation data on Friday, and there were no surprises there with inflation stable at 2.0% in the Euro area. The overall level is still being restrained by falls in energy costs.Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -18 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,362/oz, up +US$14 from Saturday.American oil prices have slipped back again, now just over US$67/bbl with the international Brent price holding at US$69.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$65 and US$68.50/bbl. OPEC has agreed a big increase in oil production. And we should probably note another fall in North American oil rigs in action, now down to their lowest level since September 2021.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.2 USc and up +20 bps from Saturday but down nearly -1c from a week ago. Over all of July the fall was -180 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, unchanged from Saturday, down -60 bps for the weekThe bitcoin price started today at US$114,109 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, but down -2.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Momento RPPS - 28/07/2025Análise semanal de mercado e os impactos no mundo RPPS, com destaques:No exterior, Acordos Comerciais, balanços corporativos, PMIs e decisão de política monetária do BCE moveram os mercados na semana.No Brasil, Desdobramentos da tarifação dos EUA ao Brasil e IPCA-15 continuaram no foco dos mercados.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like the Japanese deal. And the tariff tussle between China and the US looks like it has been extended another 90 days. The pressure will be on European and Japanese companies to become 15% more efficient, but US companies will relax, allowed to be 15% less efficient in their home markets. In the intermediate term this won't be good for global US competitiveness.In a look ahead this coming week, we will get our usual New Zealand monthly business and consumer sentiment survey updates. And our big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ accentuated because it is end of quarter data. In Australia, it will be all about retail trade and inflation metrics.And Wall Street will be very busy with many more large companies releasing earnings.But the big interest rate influence will be from the central bank decisions from the US (no change expected), Japan (no change), and Canada (also no change). In all three cases the real interest will be on their commentary.Underlying all this will be July PMIs from most major economies, plus more Q2 GDP data, and many inflation updates.Over the weekend China released industrial profits data to June. They reported another slide, down -4.3% from June a year ago, the second straight monthly decline, amid persistent deflation pressures and growing trade uncertainty. State-owned enterprises experienced steeper losses while profit growth in the private sector slowed markedly. Profit gains were recorded in many sectors but one interesting one was in agriculture where profits were up more than +20%.In Russia, and as expected, they cut their policy rate by -200 bps to 18%. They signaled another cut is likely in 2025. They see disinflation on the rise, and household consumption lower. Part of that is due to the size of the diaspora of working aged men trying to avoid the death trap of the attempted invasion of Ukraine.In Europe, the ECB's survey of professional forecasters shows they don't expect much change in the coming year with things constrained by trade questions. They see inflation easing slightly, mainly due to the tariff effects, but GDP growth slightly stronger in the short term.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged up in July from June, to the highest level since May 2024. But the report was still full of cautious sentiment.In the US and as expected durable goods orders fell back in June after the May spike. Apart from the aircraft and defense sectors, it remained pretty ho-hum. New orders rose just +0.1%. Non-defense non-aircraft orders for capital goods fell when a rise was anticipated.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices have stayed softish at just on US$65/bbl with the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday and up almost +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are stable at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, unchanged from Saturday but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,210 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US President Trump said they will have straight, simple tariffs of between 15% and 50% on countries, while he added the US is in serious talks with the EU and if they agree to open up to US businesses, US will let them pay lower tariffs.European bourses continue to gain, albeit are off best levels; US futures mixed, GOOGL +3%, TSLA -6% in pre-market trade.GBP lags on soft PMIs, EUR eyes ECB and potential EU-US breakthrough.EGBs hit by trade updates, Gilts off lows post-PMIs, USTs await data.Crude rises on trade optimism and geopolitics, gold unwinds risk premium.Looking ahead, Global PMIs, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway & ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US.Earnings from LVMH, Carrefour, Michelin, Intel, American Airlines, Blackstone, Dow Chemical, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Honeywell & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Luciana Taft, analista de AFI, analiza con lupa la deuda acumulada de Reino Unido, el banco de Inglaterra, la FED, la reunión de tipos del BCE y las lecturas preliminares de los PMIs de julio

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market website, joins us for this special Sunday editorial on the KE Report. Key topics discussed: Inflation Data: A closer look at why headline inflation remains above the 2% target and why base effects suggest future readings may edge higher. Fed Policy Outlook: Despite political noise, the Fed remains patient. Marc explains why some members (like Waller) are pushing for earlier cuts and how labor market weakness - not just inflation - may drive the next move. Market Reaction: Are potential Fed cuts already priced in? Why retail buying and FOMO are fueling equity highs, and what that means for risk ahead. Tariffs & Earnings: How shifting tariffs could pressure margins, stoke inflation, and impact upcoming earnings season. Global Events: What to watch this week: flash PMIs, the ECB meeting, Tokyo CPI - and why Japan's political backdrop is worth noting.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

Send us a textDollar stays strong amid safe haven flows and inflation risks. US prel. PMIs and Powell speech to be closely monitored. ECB expected to stand pat, focus to fall on forward guidance. Pound traders await PMIs, but remain convinced about August cut. Alphabet and Tesla earnings results also on tap.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.

South Korea’s manufacturing activity contracts for the fifth straight month, with the PMI inching up to 48.7 in June but still below the expansion threshold. Meanwhile, Japan’s manufacturing sector sees its first growth in over a year as output rises, yet ongoing uncertainty over US tariffs weighs on demand and exports. However, trade tensions escalate as US-Japan tariff talks face renewed challenges with fresh threats from Washington. On the corporate front, City Developments expands its reach into Europe through a new hotel loyalty partnership, while semiconductor firm UMS Integration pursues a secondary listing on Bursa Malaysia amid sector volatility. On Market View, Alexandra Parada speaks to Dan Chang, Trading Representative at PhillipCapital, to discuss the latest market movements.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TFMetalsReport.com, joins us for a timely macro and metals discussion on this shortened holiday trading week. With Canadian and U.S. markets seeing light volume due to national holidays, Craig outlines why this week could still bring significant volatility driven by data releases and algorithmic trading.   Key Themes Discussed: Gold's Sideways Action: Craig explains why gold's recent price consolidation mirrors the late 2023 breakout setup and how many investors may be misreading this quiet strength. Silver's Quiet Strength: Silver has posted a strong quarterly close and may soon generate its own upside momentum, similar to the sharp moves seen in 2011. Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy: Despite a lack of immediate Fed rate cuts, the U.S. dollar is falling - Craig explains how markets may be front-running a policy shift under a possible Trump-nominated Fed chair. Commodity Supertrend?: From copper and platinum to silver and aluminum, industrial metals are rallying on physical supply constraints and broader reflation themes. Data-Driven Volatility Ahead: With the JOLTS report, manufacturing and services PMIs, and a U.S. jobs report all dropping this week, Craig warns these releases could trigger fast, algo-driven moves in the metals.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget debate has financial markets on edge.But first up today, the Chicago PMI did not report the expected modest bounceback in June from the very weak May result. In fact is stayed in a severe contraction, disappointing everyone involved. It's been nearly three years since they have had any regular expansion and 2025 looks like it is shaping up the be the worst of the three.The Dallas Fed's factory survey for June was weak as well featuring shrinking new order levels. At least it was little-changed from May.As you read this, the US Senate is debating, and about to vote, on the big Trump budget bill. After years of complaining about US deficit spending and refusing to move the debt ceiling law, they are weighing whether to accede to Trump's demand to give him a free pass on both, including 'hiding' US$3.8 tln of tax cut costs. If they pass the budget, it is likely the bond market will deliver a thumbs down response, one that will affect global financial markets.On the US tariff trade bullying, there are few negotiations going well at present, for any of the parties involved.In Canada, they seem to have conceded the digital services tax issue to try and make progress on bigger issues. But the DST is still a live issue in the UK-US talks.Meanwhile, things are softening in India too. Their industrial production was up +1.2% in May from the same month in 2024, their weakest expansion in nine months and well weaker than expected.In China, there were no surprises and little movement in their official PMIs for June. Their factory sector contracted very marginally - again - and the services sector expanded marginally, also again. Basically they describe an economy marking time. But also one resilient to the trade shocks thrown at it which were designed to throw it off balance. That just hasn't happened, yet anyway.German inflation came in at 2.0% in June, a touch less than anticipated and little-different from April and May's 2.1% level. As small as it was, they weren't expecting a dip. Food prices there rose a modest +2.0% but keeping a lid on other rises was the -3.5% drop in energy prices.In Australia, Cotality/CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose +0.6% in June from May, up marginally from the prior month but it is the strongest monthly gain since June 2024. Improved market sentiment in most major cities was behind the firming and active first home buyers are behind that. On a yearly basis, national home values climbed 2.7%. Meanwhile, rental growth continued to ease, with national rents up +3.4% over the past 12 months, the slowest annual increase since early 2021.Global air cargo demand rose +2.2% in May from a year ago, up +3.0% for international airfreight. The Asia/Pacific volumes were up a very healthy +8.2% on the same basis, no doubt related to the rush to beat US tariff deadlines. These overall volumes would have been better if the North American components hadn't been so weak (+-5.8%).Meanwhile, May air passenger travel rose +5.0%, up +6.7% for international travel and up +13.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. The only region to decline was North America (-0.5%) and mostly because of weak domestic travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,2952/oz, and up +US$19 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally softer from yesterday at just under US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is down -US$1, now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,683 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Semaine #27. Chaque lundi matin nous servons le SILEXpresso, un condensé vocal de 5mn sur nos vues macro et allocation.  Retrouvez également le SILEXpresso, et bien plus encore, sur l'app SPARK :https://go.silex-partners.com/download/my_SPARK_appHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says he had constructive talks with USTR Greer; are advancing in the correct direction at "pace".US President Trump's order to increase steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% has taken effect, aside from the UK. The UK is still subject to 25% tariffs on steel, with the UK failing to get the 0% tariffs promised in the US ‘deal' implemented in time.European bourses climb higher and currently at session highs; US futures are modestly higher with some outperformance in the RTY.USD is incrementally lower/flat, whilst Antipodeans lead the G10 list.Bonds are weighed on by upward revisions to PMIs, Gilts lag after US metal measures.Crude tilts higher with US-Iran negotiations seemingly at a stalemate.Looking ahead, US Composite/Services PMI Final, US ADP National Employment, US ISM Services, BoC & NBP Policy Announcements, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including Fed's Bostic, Cook & US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Earnings from PVH & Dollar Tree.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will double US steel and aluminium tariffs from 25% to 50%, effective June 4th.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is holding back products essential to the industrial supply chain and he believes President Trump will talk to Chinese President Xi very soon, according to a CBS interview.OPEC+ members that voluntarily restricted output agreed to a 411k BPD oil production increase in July, as expected, which could be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.Chinese Official PMI data over the weekend was mixed, with manufacturing improving as expected but non-manufacturing surprisingly easing, albeit slightly.Meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegates in Istanbul is expected to take place at 11:00BST/06:00EDT in Ciragan Palace on Monday, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.APAC stocks were mostly in the red, European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, Canadian & US Manufacturing PMI Finals, Swiss GDP, ISM Manufacturing, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan, Goolsbee & Powell, Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P Futures are weakening this morning in a reaction to Moody's lowering its credit rating on the U.S after markets closed on Friday. The downgrade was not unexpected as Fitch and S&P have already lowered their ratings. President Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill advanced through the House Budget Committee on Sunday night, overcoming a major hurdle after days of internal Republican disputes. Also, President Trump is scheduled to hold a call today with Russian President Putin today at 10:00 am to discuss a path forward to end hostilities with Ukraine. The key economic event in the week ahead will be the release of S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, along with data on existing and new home sales. Upcoming earnings reports from Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will be closely watched for how these major retailers are adapting to the evolving tariff landscape and broader economic headwinds.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos comentam, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, destaque para o acordo comercial entre EUA e China. Ambos surpreenderam ao anunciar uma redução significativa de tarifas, tanto pela magnitude quanto pela agilidade da decisão, o que impulsionou os mercados globais. Nos EUA, os dados de inflação vieram abaixo do esperado (CPI, PPI e preços de importação), e os componentes do PCE também sinalizam uma pressão inflacionária mais branda — criando um ponto de partida mais favorável antes de avaliarmos os efeitos das novas tarifas. Já os dados de atividade indicaram uma leve desaceleração no início do segundo trimestre. No campo político, o debate sobre o orçamento começou a ganhar força, com republicanos pressionando por cortes no programa Medicaid. O desfecho será relevante para entendermos a trajetória fiscal norte-americana. Como mencionado acima, ao longo da semana o mercado reagiu positivamente às reduções de tarifas, com bolsas globais em alta e alguns ativos, como o ouro, passando por realização. Nos EUA, os juros subiram (vértice de 10 anos +10 bps) e as bolsas avançaram: S&P 500 +5,27%, Nasdaq +6,81%, Russell 2000 +4,46%. No Brasil, os vértices longos da curva abriram (jan/35 +27 bps, jan/31 +26 bps, jan/29 +25 bps), os curtos oscilaram menos (jan/26 -6 bps, jan/27 +2 bps). O Ibovespa subiu 1,96%, o índice de Small Caps avançou 4,17% e o real ficou estável. Por aqui, destaque para a ata do Copom, que reforçou um tom mais dovish ao apontar sinais de desaceleração via mercado de crédito, sugerindo menor disposição do comitê em seguir com o aperto monetário. No campo político, o governo reiterou sua intenção de manter estímulos fiscais em meio à queda de popularidade apontada nas pesquisas. Na próxima semana, as atenções se voltam para a votação do orçamento dos EUA, os dados de atividade de abril na China e a divulgação dos PMIs globais. Não deixe de conferir!

The world's leading economies are seeing a deceleration in manufacturing activity, although they remain in expansive territory. In the US, earnings are being revised down, largely in response to the fall in GDP growth that this implies. Meanwhile the Fed is keeping rates steady in the face of an uncertain inflation outlook, but China is cutting rates to stimulate its economy. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, analyses high frequency data of economic activity across the world. Investec Focus Radio SA

US President Trump said he is going to make a fair deal with China on trade; predicts that China will eat the tariffs.APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed; Chinese official PMIs disappointed.European equity futures indicate a contained cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher and building on yesterday's slight gains, EUR/USD is back on a 1.13 handle, AUD leads post-CPI.Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP, German Import Prices, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, GDP, CPI, Italian GDP, CPI, EZ GDP, US ADP, GDP, PCE (Q1 & for March), ECI, BoC Minutes, BoE's Lombardelli, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Albemarle, eBay, Humana, Caterpillar, International Paper, GE Healthcare, Hess, Airbus, Credit Agricole, TotalEnergies, SocGen, UBS, DHL, Kion, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Barclays, GSK, Segro & Glencore.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

En la primera hora de Capital Intereconomía repasamos toda la actualidad de la mañana en titulares con Susana Criado y Rubén Gil. Después ponemos el foco en la última hora de los mercados en Asia y Europa y repasamos lo sucedido en la última sesión de Wall Street. Para realizar el primer análisis del día contamos con Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia. Después repasamos las principales portadas de la prensa económica, nacional e internacional para contar sus titulares. Además ponemos el poco en Bitcoin: ¿Preparado para despegar?. Con Joaquím Matinero, Abogado bancario-financiero y blockchain.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o Banco Central Europeu cortou a taxa de juros em 0,25% - apesar de ter sido a magnitude esperada, o tom veio um pouco mais dove que a expectativa, sob as óticas de inflação e de atividade. Nos EUA, foram divulgados dados de varejo um pouco melhores que a expectativa - mas ainda referentes a março, antes do anúncio das tarifas; e “soft data” referentes a abril, já refletindo expectativa de contração da atividade. No âmbito de política monetária, um dos membros do Fed, Christopher J. Waller, começou a semana com falas mais dovish, focando no efeito transitório da inflação; mas o presidente da entidade, Jerome Powell, seguiu com tom mais hawk e cauteloso. ⁠ No Brasil, foi enviado ao Congresso o Projeto de Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (PLDO) de 2026, cuja notícia positiva foi a manutenção das metas fiscais de superávit até 2029. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 5 anos -22 bps), e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P -1,5%, Nasdaq -2,31% e Russell2000 +1,1%. No Brasil, os juros também fecharam (jan/35 -28 bps), o Ibovespa subiu 1,54% e, o real, 1,03%.  ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) nos EUA e na Europa; o IPCA-15 aqui no Brasil; e a reunião de primavera do FMI. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

In this episode, we're joined by Chelsea Burkett, Deputy Program Director with AECOM[00:01:13] Meet Chelsea BurkettChelsea introduces her role with Aecom and the scope of Austin ISD's massive bond program.[00:02:29] GMP 101A foundational look at GMP pricing and how it supports collaborative delivery models.[00:03:37] Early GC InvolvementWhy selecting general contractors early creates synergy and reduces surprises.[00:05:23] Community-Driven Design = Scope Creep?How community input shapes schools—and complicates budgets.[00:06:38] What's in a GMP?Chelsea walks through what the contract amendment includes and how it's executed.[00:08:49] Staying in BudgetThe bond book, voter expectations, and how cost alignment is maintained.[00:11:13] Supply Chain ChaosMaterial pricing, long lead times, and how GCs manage risk today.[00:15:24] The Open Book AdvantageFull transparency into sub bids, contingencies, and value engineering.[00:17:02] The Grading GameHow GCs and subs are evaluated—points, interviews, and all.[00:20:28] Risk, Clarifications & AllowancesUnpacking who owns what risk in complex multi-GMP projects.[00:24:07] Liquidated Damages & DeadlinesWhy hitting school opening day is non-negotiable—and risky.[00:30:12] The Art of NegotiationNavigating owner–GC–architect dynamics for long-term project health.[00:34:08] Tariffs & Steel ShockwavesThe ripple effects of global politics on your jobsite.[00:36:09] Fee StrategyHow GCs compete on cost and credentials—and when they ask for more.[00:37:03] Chelsea's Pain PointsWhy early communication is everything in GMP negotiations.[00:41:19] Use the PMIS!Advice to subs: use project management systems to get seen and heard.[00:43:14] People MatterHow staffing and turnover shape success across multiple projects.[00:46:00] Smart Strategy ≠ Low BidThe delicate dance of rewarding excellence while staying fair.[00:48:35] Megaphone MomentChelsea's call to the industry: prioritize relationships over ego.Go build something awesome!CHECK OUT THE PARTNERS THAT MAKE OUR SHOW POSSIBLE: https://www.brospodcast.com/partnersFIND US ONLINE: -Our website: https://www.brospodcast.com -LinkedIn:   / constructionbrospodcast   -Instagram:   / constructionbrospodcast    -TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@constructionbrothers?lang=en-Eddie on LinkedIn:   / eddie-c-057b3b11   -Tyler on LinkedIn:   / tylerscottcampbell  If you enjoy the podcast, please rate us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to us! Thanks for listening!

AIB's Chief Economist David McNamara and AIB Treasury's Jason Rehill discuss the latest AIB Ireland PMI reports including the positive picture for manufacturing despite looming threats, very strong growth in services, the market reactions following the US tariff announcements and how tariffs might impact Irish industries.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Las Bolsas europeas comienzan la semana con ganancias después de que Wall Street consiguiera cerrara la semana pasada en positivo para cortar su racha de cuatro semanas consecutivas en números rojos. Los inversores se muestran optimistas sobre la posibilidad de un acuerdo de alto al fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania en las negociaciones que continúan este lunes en Arabia Saudí. Además estarán atentos esta semana a referencias como el PIB del cuarto trimestre y el deflactor de consumo PCE de febrero en EEUU, el IFO de confianza en Alemania o los PMIs a ambos lados del Atlántico. En la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía Patricia Tomas, directora Ventas España de Alken AM; Almudena Mendaza, responsable de Generali Investments para Iberia; Juan Martín Valiente, Socio de AMCHOR Inv Strategies; y Lorenzo González, responsable de Iberia de DNB Asset Management analizan también si el plan de gasto impulsado por Alemania ha convertido a la Bolsa europea en la favorita del año

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreSPG PMI press releasehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open today after posting negative performance on Thursday. European markets have opened mixed, following mostly higher levels in Asian markets. US exceptionalism narrative retreating following bellwether Walmart earnings and weak retail sales data, alongside Trump's latest tariff warning on pharmaceuticals, chips and wood. Focus in Europe is on PMIs. No incremental news on geopolitical front, but media highlights EU challenges if US pulls back support for Ukraine.Companies mentioned: Nissan Motor, Tesla, Meta Platforms, KKR, Celsius Holdings

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European bourses are mostly higher after paring initial pressure following dire French PMIs; US futures are modestly mixed.DXY attempts to recoup lost ground, EUR weighed on by PMIs, JPY hit by Ueda remarks.BoJ Governor Ueda said if markets make abnormal moves, the BoJ stands ready to respond nimbly, such as through market operations, to smooth market moves.Bunds bolstered by soft PMI metrics; Commodities are pressured by the firmer Dollar.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers include ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Kugler & Jefferson.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk