Podcasts about pmis

S&P Futures are weakening this morning in a reaction to Moody's lowering its credit rating on the U.S after markets closed on Friday. The downgrade was not unexpected as Fitch and S&P have already lowered their ratings. President Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill advanced through the House Budget Committee on Sunday night, overcoming a major hurdle after days of internal Republican disputes. Also, President Trump is scheduled to hold a call today with Russian President Putin today at 10:00 am to discuss a path forward to end hostilities with Ukraine. The key economic event in the week ahead will be the release of S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, along with data on existing and new home sales. Upcoming earnings reports from Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will be closely watched for how these major retailers are adapting to the evolving tariff landscape and broader economic headwinds.

Send us a textStrong dollar awaits Fed speakers and PMIs. RBA to cut by 25bps, focus to fall on forward guidance. Sticky UK inflation could mean only one more BoE rate cut. Eurozone PMIs, Canada's and Japan's CPI numbers also on tap.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

The world's leading economies are seeing a deceleration in manufacturing activity, although they remain in expansive territory. In the US, earnings are being revised down, largely in response to the fall in GDP growth that this implies. Meanwhile the Fed is keeping rates steady in the face of an uncertain inflation outlook, but China is cutting rates to stimulate its economy. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, analyses high frequency data of economic activity across the world. Investec Focus Radio SA

Ouça o que movimentou o mercado e a economia nesta segunda-feira.

US President Trump said he is going to make a fair deal with China on trade; predicts that China will eat the tariffs.APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed; Chinese official PMIs disappointed.European equity futures indicate a contained cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher and building on yesterday's slight gains, EUR/USD is back on a 1.13 handle, AUD leads post-CPI.Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP, German Import Prices, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, GDP, CPI, Italian GDP, CPI, EZ GDP, US ADP, GDP, PCE (Q1 & for March), ECI, BoC Minutes, BoE's Lombardelli, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Albemarle, eBay, Humana, Caterpillar, International Paper, GE Healthcare, Hess, Airbus, Credit Agricole, TotalEnergies, SocGen, UBS, DHL, Kion, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Barclays, GSK, Segro & Glencore.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that as tariffs kick in, the US gets higher prices and lower activity. The White House is signaling it wants to pull back from its bluster (whiff of panic?), although China is yet to respond.But first in the US, mortgage applications fell sharply last week to be just +6% above the weak week a year ago. Benchmark interest rates rose, which seems to have choked off new purchase borrowers, and refinance borrowers.Sales of new single-family homes rose +6.0% in March from a year ago at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 724,000 and the highest in six months, and much better than market expectations of 680,000 homes. But to be fair this latest level is still within the range it has been for the past 27 months. They still have unsold inventories of over 8 months of sales at the current rate, which is a lot for builders to carry.The latest US Treasury bond auction, for the key 5yr Note, was well supported but delivered a yield of 3.93%, down from 4.04% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. This is the maturity that foreign institutions prefer so is a good indicator of foreign support of US debt instruments. More than a quarter of all US Treasury debt is owned by foreigners, more than a third in the 2-5 year maturities. If we see a pullback, it will be in these auctions, and evidenced by rising yields.The S&P/Markit US Manufacturing PMI rose marginally in April from March to a small expansion, better than the market expectations of a small contraction. Although growth was modest, this marked the fourth consecutive month of expansion in factory activity. Meanwhile, the equivalent services PMI fell sharply to a two month low. There are warning signs here. Prices charged for goods and services rose in this latest month at the sharpest pace for 13 months, increasing especially steeply in manufacturing (where the rate of inflation hit a 29-month high) but also picking up further pace in services (where the rate of inflation struck a seven-month high). More generally, sentiment fell among the surveyed companies.The US Fed's April Beige Book is out and it is picking up similar themes; lower sentiment, stuttering demand, and rising prices. They are more muted in the Beige Book surveys, but they are still being noted.There were 'flash' PMIs out for other countries overnight too. The EU factory PMI contracted its least in 27 months, but their services PMI retreated a bit more. In India, both of their PMIs stayed very expansionary. In Japan, there was a "return to growth" in April. In Australia, the new order components are rising but most other aspects are not. Election uncertainty may be playing a role here.In China, they said they will issue ¥1.3 tln (NZ$300 bln) in ultra-long-term special government bonds starting today (Thursday). Some of that liquidity will be used to fund consumption incentives as they try to speed their shift away from export dependency.Coal prices hit a four year low yesterday as warm autumn weather in Asia, and lower industrial demand is being swamped by high output. Prices are now back to where they were in 2016. Rising supply and stunted demand is having the same price impact on oil.Global financial stability regulators are increasingly worried about the resilience of the financial sector, and have issued a warning about the consequences of dodgy and capricious public policy.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.38%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3282/oz, and down -US$116 from yesterday.Oil prices have fallen -US$2.50 from yesterday to be now just over US$61.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$65.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 59.6 USc, down another -20 bps from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we up +30 bps at just on 52.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just at 68 and unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$93,933 and up +2.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.8%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And because tomorrow is the Anzac Day holiday, we will do this again on Monday.

En la primera hora de Capital Intereconomía repasamos toda la actualidad de la mañana en titulares con Susana Criado y Rubén Gil. Después ponemos el foco en la última hora de los mercados en Asia y Europa y repasamos lo sucedido en la última sesión de Wall Street. Para realizar el primer análisis del día contamos con Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia. Después repasamos las principales portadas de la prensa económica, nacional e internacional para contar sus titulares. Además ponemos el poco en Bitcoin: ¿Preparado para despegar?. Con Joaquím Matinero, Abogado bancario-financiero y blockchain.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that gold is rising, being the 'last man standing' as a perceived safe-haven asset. And American bond funds are having a moment, a negative one. Outflows are continuing, building selling pressure at the rate of about US$10 bln per week and have done so for the past five weeks now.The position of the US dollar and US Treasuries are being directly undermined by the US president. He and his advisers have been raging about the role of the Fed boss. If he tries to remove him, expect a larger market reaction, especially from the bond market. But so far it is all bluster.But first, it will be a short, truncated week post-Easter with just three business days until Frida's ANZAC Day holiday. Our March export results are one of the few data releases. We will also get an update this week from the RBNZ's six-monthly credit condition survey.Internationally, we will get the start of the March 'flash' PMIs for April. Wall Street will continue with its early earnings season results, dominated this week by big tech. US durable goods orders for March, and confidence survey results for April are also due for release this week.Over the weekend China left its key lending rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive month in April. After that, the yuan rose as did the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges. Expectations for a reserve ratio cut to boosrt bank liquidity are mounting there.China ramped up its budget spending in the first quarter at the fastest pace since 2022, allocating nearly 22% of planned outlays to counter weakening foreign demand amid an ongoing tariff war. The move is part of a broader strategy to boost domestic demand and support industries hit by trade tensions.Earlier they said foreign direct investment into the country is struggling again. In January it was down -14% from a year ago to ¥13.4 bln in the month. It rose to ¥16.6 bln in February. a +16% year-on-year gain. But it March it was only ¥6.9 bln, a -45% drop from from the same month a year ago. China prefers to look at this data "year-to-date" but that masks the current weakness.Japanese CPI inflation stayed high in March although it did slip to 3.6%, and the second consecutive decrease and the lowest of 2025.Across the Pacific, the US dollar has fallen to a three year low. Sentiment is being undermined by the Trump attacks on the US Fed. And it seems pretty clear that the US in now in a tariff-tax recession. Not only is the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signaling a -2.2% economic contraction, the blue chip 'consensus' forecasts are now showing up with contraction forecasts too. And the spread into investors funds is happening rather quickly now. 90 of the top 100 best-performing exchange-traded funds of last year are down in 2025, with an average loss of -13%, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.American new housing starts unexpectedly dropped -11.4% in March from February to an annualised rate of 1.324 mln, the lowest level in four months and virtually the same as the same month a year ago. But the expectation is that these will fall from here as new-builds get much more expensive from the tariff-tax effect.US initial jobless claims came in at 220,000 last week, an increase although less of an increase than seasonal factors would have anticipated. But that puts them +5.1% higher than year-ago levels.Diving even more is the Philly Fed's factory survey in the heartland Pennsylvania manufacturing rust belt. This is the icon region the tariff-taxes are supposed to save. But they aren't feeling any benefit - although hardly surprising to everyone but MAGA zealots. New orders dropped to pandemic levels, and apart from the pandemic, the overall sentiment has seen its fastest and steepest drop since these survey records started in the 1970s.In Canada, they are a week away from their federal election (Monday, April 28, 2025 Canadian time). The polls are tightening but the incumbent Liberal Party still holds a comfortable lead over the Conservatives. Likewise in Australia, their federal election is in the week after that. Polls there also show a comfortable lead for the incumbent Labor Party. In both cases, the conservative forces are undermined by the toxic Trump effect. But on the other side, the Labor Party is wavering in some key heartland Sydney seats, hurt by "the Gaza issue".In Europe, they are in a better position to cut interest rates because they also don't have the inflation pressures the US has. And they have. The European Central Bank cut its policy interest rates by -25 bps on Thursday, as expected, marking the sixth consecutive cut since June and bringing the key deposit rate down to 2.25%. They say their disinflation process is progressing well and they have now dropped previous references to a "restrictive" policy stance. They also say that their growth outlook has worsened from the escalating trade tensions.On Thursday, Australia released its March labour market data and there was a good +33,000 rise in new jobs, bouncing back from the February drop. The March data saw the increase evenly split from an increase in full-time jobs and part-time jobs. Their jobless rate unchanged stayed at 4.2%. There are +308,000 more people employed in Australia over the past year, a rise of +2.2%. The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.40%, up +7 bps from this time Saturday. Wall Street is taking it on the chin in its Monday session, down a very sharpish -3.1% on the S&P500, and staying down. The Nasdaq is down -3.6%, the Dow down -3.3%, so a broad retreat. The price of gold will start today at US$3417/oz, and up +US$90 from Saturday.Oil prices have fallen (in USD), down -US$1.50 from Saturday to be now just over US$63/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$66/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60 USc, up +60 bps from Saturday at this time and its highest in six months. Against the Aussie we are up +50 bps at 93.6 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at just on 52.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just under 68 and its highest since mid December.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,811 and up +2.6% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Yeap Junrong, Market Strategist, IG discusses what to look out for in the US earnings releases this week including from Tesla and Alphabet, as well as how much pessimism from the tariff tensions will be reflected in the latest round of global PMIs.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o Banco Central Europeu cortou a taxa de juros em 0,25% - apesar de ter sido a magnitude esperada, o tom veio um pouco mais dove que a expectativa, sob as óticas de inflação e de atividade. Nos EUA, foram divulgados dados de varejo um pouco melhores que a expectativa - mas ainda referentes a março, antes do anúncio das tarifas; e “soft data” referentes a abril, já refletindo expectativa de contração da atividade. No âmbito de política monetária, um dos membros do Fed, Christopher J. Waller, começou a semana com falas mais dovish, focando no efeito transitório da inflação; mas o presidente da entidade, Jerome Powell, seguiu com tom mais hawk e cauteloso. ⁠ No Brasil, foi enviado ao Congresso o Projeto de Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (PLDO) de 2026, cuja notícia positiva foi a manutenção das metas fiscais de superávit até 2029. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 5 anos -22 bps), e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P -1,5%, Nasdaq -2,31% e Russell2000 +1,1%. No Brasil, os juros também fecharam (jan/35 -28 bps), o Ibovespa subiu 1,54% e, o real, 1,03%.  ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) nos EUA e na Europa; o IPCA-15 aqui no Brasil; e a reunião de primavera do FMI. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

Send us a textTariff headlines remain at the top of investors' agendas. But flash S&P Global PMIs could attract special attention. Auctions to reveal information about demand for Treasuries. Tokyo CPI data and Canada's retail sales also on tap. Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

In this episode, we're joined by Chelsea Burkett, Deputy Program Director with AECOM[00:01:13] Meet Chelsea BurkettChelsea introduces her role with Aecom and the scope of Austin ISD's massive bond program.[00:02:29] GMP 101A foundational look at GMP pricing and how it supports collaborative delivery models.[00:03:37] Early GC InvolvementWhy selecting general contractors early creates synergy and reduces surprises.[00:05:23] Community-Driven Design = Scope Creep?How community input shapes schools—and complicates budgets.[00:06:38] What's in a GMP?Chelsea walks through what the contract amendment includes and how it's executed.[00:08:49] Staying in BudgetThe bond book, voter expectations, and how cost alignment is maintained.[00:11:13] Supply Chain ChaosMaterial pricing, long lead times, and how GCs manage risk today.[00:15:24] The Open Book AdvantageFull transparency into sub bids, contingencies, and value engineering.[00:17:02] The Grading GameHow GCs and subs are evaluated—points, interviews, and all.[00:20:28] Risk, Clarifications & AllowancesUnpacking who owns what risk in complex multi-GMP projects.[00:24:07] Liquidated Damages & DeadlinesWhy hitting school opening day is non-negotiable—and risky.[00:30:12] The Art of NegotiationNavigating owner–GC–architect dynamics for long-term project health.[00:34:08] Tariffs & Steel ShockwavesThe ripple effects of global politics on your jobsite.[00:36:09] Fee StrategyHow GCs compete on cost and credentials—and when they ask for more.[00:37:03] Chelsea's Pain PointsWhy early communication is everything in GMP negotiations.[00:41:19] Use the PMIS!Advice to subs: use project management systems to get seen and heard.[00:43:14] People MatterHow staffing and turnover shape success across multiple projects.[00:46:00] Smart Strategy ≠ Low BidThe delicate dance of rewarding excellence while staying fair.[00:48:35] Megaphone MomentChelsea's call to the industry: prioritize relationships over ego.Go build something awesome!CHECK OUT THE PARTNERS THAT MAKE OUR SHOW POSSIBLE: https://www.brospodcast.com/partnersFIND US ONLINE: -Our website: https://www.brospodcast.com -LinkedIn:   / constructionbrospodcast   -Instagram:   / constructionbrospodcast    -TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@constructionbrothers?lang=en-Eddie on LinkedIn:   / eddie-c-057b3b11   -Tyler on LinkedIn:   / tylerscottcampbell  If you enjoy the podcast, please rate us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to us! Thanks for listening!

AIB's Chief Economist David McNamara and AIB Treasury's Jason Rehill discuss the latest AIB Ireland PMI reports including the positive picture for manufacturing despite looming threats, very strong growth in services, the market reactions following the US tariff announcements and how tariffs might impact Irish industries.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Ouça o que movimentou o mercado e a economia nesta terça-feira.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the NZD is falling again and sharply, now back to one-month lows as commodity prices suggested shifts to our disadvantage, and global trade flows became more uncertain.The global risk-off trend is building. Wall Street opened weak, although it has pared back some of the losses in its afternoon trade.Elsewhere in the US, a key MidWest factory survey, the Chicago PMI, contracted less in March than expected. The shift itself wasn't large, but it was unexpected because a worsening was expected. So it has gained attention. But more than a third of respondents to this survey said they would respond to tariff pressures by raising prices. Only 18% said they would on-shore supplies. New order growth only got also-ran mentions. Overall, this report is of a slower downturn.The Dallas Fed factory survey was mixed. New order levels improved marginally but remained weak. Production levels rose more. But perceptions of broader business conditions continued to worsen in March. The general business activity index fell to its lowest reading since July 2024.US factories are not gearing up for the 'benefits' of tariffs, yet anyway. And there are no significant signs of plans to do that.In Canada, one party is advancing an election strategy to push back on the tariff impacts on their trade with the US, ramping up home-building sharply to a level that reminds them of the post WWII surge. This campaign pledge is likely to find a receptive audience, because by all accounts Canadians are really, really pissed-off at the US.They will need something significant because all indications are that the impending tariff levels from the US are not being worked lower but in fact are more likely now to be at the upper end of earlier signals when they are announced on Thursday NZT.Across the Pacific in Japan there was a good jump in industrial production reported for February, from January.In South Korea, industrial production there was a rise on the same basis, although smaller.In China, they reported official PMIs for March and the factory one rose marginally as expected to a small expansion. Their services PMI for March rose marginally more. Importantly, in both cases new order levels came in better than the overall indexes.In India, they are moving into summer and all the indications are for extreme temperatures. So high are they being forecast that they could be at a level that causes parts of their economy to shut down, or at least stumble. Heatwaves are being normalised, with more energy consumption the only way to battle it on an individual level, and that means burning more coal.In Germany, retail sales rose more than expected in February (in real terms), which was much better than expected. Meanwhile they said the CPI inflation was running at 2.2% and slightly lower than the February level, and a four month low.Like Canada, Australia is also in an election campaign. US tariff impacts haven't really become an issue there yet although being anti-Trump is helping. But more of an issue is that China has another spy ship circling while at the same time its diplomats are calling for 'trade unity'. It is such an obvious carrot-and-stick play that it is winning China no friends. The trade fallout if Australia doesn't buckle, could be more serious for them than US tariffs.Australian property prices continued to recover from a short-lived dip to hit fresh highs in March as borrowers and prospective home buyers await a decision on interest rates today. Data from CoreLogic showed house prices rose in all cities except Hobart last month, with the national median value of a home now over AU$820,000.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3118/oz and up another net +US$34 from yesterday and easily a new all-time high.Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just over US$71.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just under US$75/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.7 USc and and down -½c from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 90.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -½c at just under 52.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today now just on 66.3 and down -40 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,350 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.5%You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news commodity prices are falling away across the board, along with crypto, as a risk-off mood builds in financial markets.In the week ahead, the most interesting developments will be close to home. There will be the usual monthly dump of February data from the RBNZ later today, and the real estate industry will start reporting its March results and listing levels. And in Australia, their central bank will be reviewing its monetary policy settings. But because they are in an election campaign it would be surprising indeed if they may any moves either way that might influence voters.The week will end with American labour market data for March. But because the impacts of DOGE cuts or tariff hikes are yet to be felt, little-change is anticipated here either. But more PMI reports will start to reveal new order levels, which will give important early warning signals.There will be PMIs out for China too, Japan business sentiment, EU inflation, and German factory orders, which will all help paint a picture of how the global economy is coping.But first up today, there will be a lot of interest on tomorrow's Wall Street open. It ended its Friday session with the S&P500 down -2.0% and no signs of recovery late in the session. The Nasdaq fell -2.7% on the day. Weekend futures trading has the S&P500 recovering +0.8%, but that basically embeds the Friday retreat. Risk-off sentiment is strong with major investors selling, seeing this as a time to hold cash.The core reason Wall Street is risk-off is that American consumers are increasingly anxious about their jobs, and the inflation pressures ahead. And both of those worries are over what higher tariffs will do to them. Town-hall meetings across the country are giving the message to Congresspeople that they aren't too happy about the self-serving government- by-billionaires either.The final University of Michigan March sentiment survey was revised lower from its already low 'flash' result. Consumers are in full defensive mode, expecting inflation to jump, and job security to worsen. Wall Street can't ignore these signals.Other data out over the weekend didn't help. The core US PCE inflation indicator for February rose its most since January 2024, and of course this doesn't include the effect of the recent policy missteps. This data is a little signal magnified by current policy settings.US consumer spending came in lower than expected. Consumer savings rates rose. This is consistent with consumers shifting to a defensive mood ahead of their expected rough economic weather.It isn't any better in Canada where their monthly GDP indicator for February revealed no net expansion, following a positive January expansion.In China, talk about rate cuts that officials don't like brings prosecution. They say "the local public security organs" have dealt with two such people.In Australia, they are off and running for their May 3, 2025 federal election. Like most elections, it will be fought on "cost of living" issues. The campaign starts with the incumbents in a strong and rising position on their two-party-preferred basis. Expect a sledge-a-thon for the next five weeks.And for the record, when we are thinking of drought and rainfall in Australia, this resource is useful to keep perspective.Commodity prices are under pressure. Worth watching is the price of copper. It is very high at present, but lower economic activity in both China and the US could bring about 'a collapse'. It would not be the only commodity to suffer.We should also possibly note that the US Fed balance sheet shrunk again last week to be -US$745 bln lower than this time last year. So far we haven't seen any slacking in the pace of their tightening.We should also note that in this current risk-off phase, the US dollar has not risen. This is very unusual and may portent a diminished role for the greenback in the global economy.So far, the world has kept buying US Treasury paper, but the more the Federal finances are twisted by Trump, the less likely that demand will hold. But remember less than 24% of total US federal debt is held by foreigners (US$8.512 tln of US$36.218 tln in gross terms), so the impact from foreign demand will be muted. However, markets will notice any substantial pullback by this group, and that will colour its market status and price. The big impacts will come from the locals' willingness to absorb this debt.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from yesterday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3085/oz and up another net +US$5 from Saturday. Although off it at the moment, gold keeps challenging it's all-time high levels.Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just under US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just over US$73.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and unchanged from this time Saturday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just under 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today still just over 66.7.The bitcoin price starts today at US$82,272 and down -1.9% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Las Bolsas europeas comienzan la semana con ganancias después de que Wall Street consiguiera cerrara la semana pasada en positivo para cortar su racha de cuatro semanas consecutivas en números rojos. Los inversores se muestran optimistas sobre la posibilidad de un acuerdo de alto al fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania en las negociaciones que continúan este lunes en Arabia Saudí. Además estarán atentos esta semana a referencias como el PIB del cuarto trimestre y el deflactor de consumo PCE de febrero en EEUU, el IFO de confianza en Alemania o los PMIs a ambos lados del Atlántico. En la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía Patricia Tomas, directora Ventas España de Alken AM; Almudena Mendaza, responsable de Generali Investments para Iberia; Juan Martín Valiente, Socio de AMCHOR Inv Strategies; y Lorenzo González, responsable de Iberia de DNB Asset Management analizan también si el plan de gasto impulsado por Alemania ha convertido a la Bolsa europea en la favorita del año

Este lunes los mercados despiertan con buen ánimo gracias a señales de que la nueva ronda de aranceles de Trump podría ser más moderada. Además, hay avances en las conversaciones de paz entre Ucrania y Rusia, y Canadá se prepara para elecciones anticipadas. En Asia, los PMIs traen señales mixtas, mientras que en México todas las miradas están puestas en la decisión de Banxico de esta semana y en los datos de inflación. También como“Idea of the Day” te contamos sobre la historia detrás de Novo Nordisk, la farmacéutica detrás del boom de los tratamientos para la obesidad.

Ouça o que movimentou o mercado nesta segunda-feira.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with newsthe prospect of tariffs already seem to be sapping the rising expansion of the American manufacturing sector over the past few years.The first look at PMIs for March are starting to come through with early 'flash' results. In the US, the S&P Global composite PMI rose in March from February's 10-month low. The service sector led the upturn with a better than expected gain. But the factory sector fell into contraction as a tariff-driven boost earlier in the year ran out of puff. Employment grew only marginally. New order growth for factories evaporated in March, but rose for services.They are facing significant cost challenges. For example, with the new Administration calling 'copper' a national security issue, prices for this key metal have now hit a record all-time high there, and rising. This type of policy mistake is going to make US factories far less competitive on the global stage.The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index rose in February, consistent with the PMIs, and the hesitation in new orders showed up here too with this category dropping below its long term average and one of the weaker components although better than in prior months.In Japan, their March 'flash' PMI wasn't great for them. The factory PMI contracted in March and by more than expected, the ninth consecutive month of contraction. It was a reversal in factory activity since March 2024, with sharper declines in both production and new orders, despite foreign sales growing. In the services sector there was an even larger decline, but only to just below a steady state from February's solid expansion.In India, their PMIs continued to register a strong expansion, consistent with what they have had. Even though the services expansion was slightly less, it is still strong. Factory activity is still very strong and rising new orders suggest real capacity problems, but also that the gains will continue.In China, there are official central bank indications that they are getting ready to cut their policy rates and banks' reserve requirements, at the “right time.”And staying in China, they are starting to deploy robot police.Singapore's inflation rate rose in February from January, but due to base effects, fell from a year ago and is now only up +0.9%. That is the first time it has been under 1% in four years. Since September 2022 when it hit 7.5%, it has steadily fallen from there.In the EU, their March 'flash' PMIs record expansions in both their services and factory sectors. True, they are both minor, but because they are rising from contractions they are notable. New order growth is behind the rise.The latest internationally-benchmarked factory PMI for Australia for March is recording a strong gain and an expansion that is its strongest since late 2022. Their 'flash' services PMI also rose but it is recording a more modest expansion.We are standing by for a May election in Australia. Probably May 3, or May 10, both Thursdays. We won't know what they actually decide until after their 2025/26 Federal Budget is released later today. Because it is an election Budget, its forecasts will be looked at dubiously. Current polling has the opposition parties ahead, but now falling rather sharply in support. Here is a recent outlier poll. It's basically too close to call.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +7 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3009/oz and down a net -US$14 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$69/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just under US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.2 USc and down another -10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just under 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.8, and down -10 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$88,026 and up +3.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at +/- 2.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are heading into a week where the data won't be as important as the policy decisions made and about to be made. And we do seem to be seeing a shift in great-power economic fortunes; the US fading while China get up off its knees.Although there are only a few key data releases in New Zealand, Australia will release its monthly inflation indicator for February this week on Wednesday and its monthly household spending indicator on Thursday. These will both feed into their election campaign narratives. And later today we will get a first look at their March PMI tracking.There will be similar 'flash' PMIs from Japan, India, the EU and the US out this week too. South Korea will release business and consumer confidence data while Singapore will release its February inflation rate.And in the US it will be all about personal income and spending, consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, pending home sales, and the final estimate of Q4-2024 GDP.In the US this week all eyes will be on how the threatened 'reciprocal tariffs' play out. Those around Trump seem to be starting to realise that tariffs are a tax on yourself, so are growing less certain they are a good idea. The talk now is a scaling back of the 'promised' action threatened to take effect on April 1 (US time), just nine days from now.No doubt they are very aware of the signals the widely-respected Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is giving.In Canada, retreating car sales, especially of American brands, has seen their February retail sales take an unexpected dip. They fell by -0.4% from the previous month and January was revised lower, so that is back-to-back falls in retail sales for the first time since June 2024. A +0.3% rise was anticipated in February. Year on year, February retail sales were up +4.2%.And in Canada, the Liberal government has called an election on April 28 (Saturday NZT). The race is set to revolve around who is best placed to fend off Trump. Trump pettiness is sure to be an issue.The Japanese inflation rate dipped to 3.7% in February from a 2-year high of 4.0% in January. Helping was a sharp pullback in price of electricity, up +9.0% in February from a year ago, back from +18.0% in January on the same basis. New utility bill subsidies are behind that shift. So this isn't likely to shift the Bank of Japan from its rate rising path.As expected, Malaysia's CPI inflation rate came in at +1.5%, but that was its lowest since February 2021. Their food prices were stable, housing costs fell.In China, they are piling on the pressure to try and stop the Hong Kong company who owns the Panama port facilities from completing the deal to sell it to America's Blackrock. CK Hutchison is in an impossible situation now, a pawn between great powers. How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.Meanwhile, their retail sales activity is on the rise. (At +4.0% year on year and rising from +3.7% in December, and that now bests the US's +3.1% and a fall from +4.4% in December, on the same basis.)In a bit of a surprise to many analysts, EU consumer sentiment did not improve in March as it has done previously in 2025, rather it dipped lower. To be fair, it has been deeply negative since mid-2021 and running below its long term average for the past two years.Here's something you don't see every day. A ratings agency putting a whole sector on 'watch' - in advance of failures. This is from Australia's SQM Research who now say the private credit sector (aka, the private debt sector, or 'private equity') is facing a wave of bad loans. It has a list of 14 issues that the sector is deficient with. Companies owned/funded by this sector are at heightened risk of short-term cut-and-run strategies, making matters worse.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3023/oz and up a net +US$9 from Saturday.Oil prices are stable from Saturday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just over US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. A week ago, it was at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and unchanged. A week ago it was at 66.7.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,264 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$84,261. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Global flash PMIs for March will be a focal point early in the week, while PCE inflation will be one of the US highlights. The Conference Board's US consumer confidence index will be of interest on Tuesday too, following a slide in the University of Michigan measure last week. Australia's 2025/26 Federal Budget will be delivered on Tuesday evening, paving the way for the Federal Election which must occur on or before 17 May. Locally, it's a quiet week with ANZ consumer confidence for March the only notable release.

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o Fed optou por manter a taxa de juros inalterada, revisando, para esse ano, a atividade para baixo, e a inflação para cima. Na conferência de imprensa, o Powell trouxe viés mais dove, principalmente ao mencionar expectativa de transitoriedade sobre os efeitos inflacionários das tarifas anunciadas pelo governo. No Reino Unido, o BoE também manteve o juro inalterado, como esperado. Com relação aos dados econômicos, o destaque ficou para as vendas no varejo nos EUA, que surpreenderam para cima. Por fim, foi aprovado na Alemanha o pacote fiscal anunciado no início do mês. ⁠ No Brasil, o destaque foi o Copom, que elevou a taxa de juros em 1%, como esperado, sinalizando alta de menor magnitude na próxima reunião. De maneira geral, o comunicado foi interpretado como mais hawk que a expectativa. Ainda, a semana foi movimentada no Congresso, com a aprovação do Orçamento, o anúncio do projeto de isenção do IR e as compensações sugeridas, novidades para o programa “Minha Casa, Minha Vida” e outras medidas expansionistas. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 5 anos -9 bps), e as bolsas tiveram desempenho marginalmente positivo – S&P500 +0,51%, Nasdaq +0,25% e Russell2000 +0,63%. No Brasil, o jan/27 abriu 22 bps, o Ibovespa valorizou 2,63% e, o real, 0,24%. ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) e inflação de março na Europa, inflação nos EUA e, por aqui, ata do Copom, Relatório Trimestral de Inflação e IPCA-15. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

Send us a textUS PCE inflation up next, but will consumption data matter more? UK budget and CPI in focus after hawkish BoE decision. Euro turns to flash PMIs for bounce as rally runs out of steam. Inflation numbers out of Tokyo also on the agenda.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreSPG PMI press releasehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open today after posting negative performance on Thursday. European markets have opened mixed, following mostly higher levels in Asian markets. US exceptionalism narrative retreating following bellwether Walmart earnings and weak retail sales data, alongside Trump's latest tariff warning on pharmaceuticals, chips and wood. Focus in Europe is on PMIs. No incremental news on geopolitical front, but media highlights EU challenges if US pulls back support for Ukraine.Companies mentioned: Nissan Motor, Tesla, Meta Platforms, KKR, Celsius Holdings

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European bourses are mostly higher after paring initial pressure following dire French PMIs; US futures are modestly mixed.DXY attempts to recoup lost ground, EUR weighed on by PMIs, JPY hit by Ueda remarks.BoJ Governor Ueda said if markets make abnormal moves, the BoJ stands ready to respond nimbly, such as through market operations, to smooth market moves.Bunds bolstered by soft PMI metrics; Commodities are pressured by the firmer Dollar.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers include ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Kugler & Jefferson.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, foram divulgados alguns dados americanos de inflação – apesar do CPI vir bastante acima da expectativa, com composição ruim, o resultado dos componentes que integram o PCE – tanto do CPI, quanto do PPI – levaram a revisões baixistas das projeções do mercado. Também foram divulgados dados de atividade, com destaque para as vendas no varejo, que sinalizaram atividade mais fraca. No âmbito político, o Trump indicou nova postergação das tarifas, e o Xi Jinping planeja presidir um simpósio para se aproximar do setor privado, principalmente empresas de tecnologia. Ainda, foram divulgadas diversas notícias sobre um possível acordo de paz entre Rússia e Ucrânia. No Brasil, os dados de atividade (PMS – serviços, PMC – comércio) vieram abaixo do esperado. Foi divulgada nova pesquisa Datafolha, sinalizando forte queda da aprovação do presidente Lula, que também falou ao longo da semana e levantou dúvidas a respeito do cenário eleitoral de 2026. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros terminaram a semana fechando marginalmente, e as bolsas tiveram bom desempenho – S&P500 +1,47% e Nasdaq +2,9%. No Brasil, o jan/27 fechou 49 bps, o Ibovespa subiu 2,89% e o real valorizou 1,94%. ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) nos EUA e na Europa; a fala do Waller, membro do Fed, e a divulgação da última minuta do FOMC; e as decisões dos bancos centrais da Austrália e da Nova Zelândia. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

Join us this Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. Key Highlights:DeepSeek's Disruption: U.S. tech stocks tumble as DeepSeek's cost-effective AI model challenges the dominance of advanced chip manufacturing, sending Nasdaq down 3.4%. Nvidia faces a -5% open.Trump's Tariffs: A 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico starting February 1st rattles markets, alongside calls for immediate interest rate cuts.China PMI Weakness: Manufacturing PMI drops to 49.1 (est. 50.1), signalling deeper deflationary risks, while services PMI weakens further.Global Housing Slump: U.S. mortgage demand hits a 30-year low as inventories surge, and home sales collapse. Housing is set to dominate the 2025 economic narrative.Market Volatility: Bitcoin's wild swings see risk near $91,370, gold eyes new all-time highs targeting $2,790, and copper surges but faces resistance.Europe's Struggles: Germany slashes its GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, while France plans spending cuts amidst weakening PMIs.Key Data Releases This Week:Monday: U.S. New Home SalesTuesday: Durable Goods Orders, Consumer ConfidenceWednesday: U.S. Federal Reserve MeetingFriday: Core PCE Inflation, Employment Cost IndexTune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don't miss it! #MacroMondays #GlobalMarkets #DeepSeek #TrumpTariffs #USTechStocks #Bitcoin #Gold #Copper #HousingMarket #PMIData #ChinaEconomy #GermanyGDP #FranceEconomy #Nasdaq #InterestRates #MarketVolatility

The United States has stood out as the only major economy experiencing significant expansion amid Global PMIs. The economic health indicator was a mixed bag for manufacturing and service sectors. Meanwhile, luxury brand Burberry has soared 10% on its quarterly update. And back home, why are things are looking up for the red meat sector? Devon Funds Management representative Greg Smith joins the show to talk all things business. LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European bourses mostly firmer, whilst US futures tilt a little lower; Burberry +15% post-results.DXY in the doldrums as Trump waters down tariff rhetoric and calls for lower interest rates.USTs a little firmer, Bunds pressured by EZ PMIs and BoJ Governor Ueda spurs JGB action.Base metals soar amid Trump's China commentary and a weaker dollar.BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, as expected via an 8-1 vote with Nakamura the dissenter. Governor Ueda said the Board has judged that spring wage talks will result in strong hikes again this year. No preset idea on future adjustments. No preconceived ideas around the scope/timing of the next rate rise. Next rate hike will depend less on economic growth but more on price moves.Looking ahead, US PMIs, Speakers include ECB's Cipollone. Earnings from Verizon, American Express.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Sarah Campos e Yara Cordeiro debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o destaque foi a posse do Trump, que na largada assinou uma série de ordens executivas, que de certa forma servem de indicação das prioridades do governo: o foco, por ora, foi em imigração e energia, visando uma queda nos preços de petróleo. No Japão, o banco central se reuniu, decidindo elevar a taxa de juros em 0,25%, reiterando que considera que as taxas ainda estão em patamar abaixo do neutro. Foram também divulgados dados de atividade (PMIs) na Europa, com surpresa positiva; e nos EUA, com surpresa negativa em serviços – mas provavelmente impactados pelo clima e pelas queimadas por lá. ⁠ No Brasil, foi divulgado o IPCA-15 de janeiro, com headline mais forte que o esperado e composição ruim, demonstrando pressão na parte de serviços subjacentes – ponto de atenção do BCB. No âmbito político, foram noticiadas possíveis medidas para reduzir os preços dos alimentos, que resultaram em mais um impacto negativo para a imagem do governo. ⁠ Nos EUA, a curva de juros fechou sem variações muito expressivas, as bolsas em alta – S&P500 +1,74%, Nasdaq +1,55% e Russell2000 +1,4%, e o dólar enfraquecido (DXY -1,73%). No Brasil, o jan/26 abriu 18 bps, enquanto os vértices mais longos ficaram próximos à estabilidade, o Ibovespa subiu apenas 0,08%, e o real valorizou 2,8%. ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar as reuniões dos bancos centrais dos EUA, da Europa, do Canadá e do Brasil; dados de atividade nos EUA; de atividade e inflação na Europa; e de mercado de trabalho e fiscais aqui no Brasil. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o destaque foi a divulgação dos dados de inflação nos EUA (PPI e CPI), um pouco abaixo do esperado, gerando expectativa similar para o PCE. Ainda por lá, foram divulgados dados de vendas no varejo e produção industrial, indicando atividade forte; e o diretor Christopher Waller, do Fed, trouxe discurso dove, indicando tranquilidade a respeito dos dados e expectativa de 3 a 4 cortes de juros ao longo do ano. No Reino Unido, os dados de inflação também surpreenderam positivamente. ⁠ No Brasil, foram divulgados dados de atividade (PMS – serviços), mais fracos que o esperado, que levaram a revisões baixistas para o PIB do 4º trimestre. Entretanto, as atenções ficaram voltadas para a polêmica ao redor do tema de uma suposta taxação do PIX, que levou o governo a recuar e revogar a norma da Receita Federal que tratava do monitoramento das movimentações financeiras. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam na semana (5 anos -15 bps), e as bolsas tiveram bom desempenho – S&P500 +2,91%, Nasdaq +2,85% e Russell2000 +3,96%. No Reino Unido, os juros também fecharam (entre 15 e 20 bps). No Brasil, o jan/26 fechou 10 bps, enquanto o jan/35 abriu 12 bps, e o Ibovespa subiu 2,94%. ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar a posse do novo presidente americano, Donald Trump; dados de atividade (PMIs) na Europa; reunião do banco central do Japão (BoJ); e divulgação do IPCA-15 aqui no Brasil. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

European bourses give back early morning strength; US futures gain with modest outperformance in the NQ.USD began the session on a weaker footing but is now flat.USTs firmer after China Manufacturing PMI and ahead of their own metricsCrude on a firmer footing while base metals are capped by sub-par Chinese PMIs.Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI, Refunding Announcement.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Endrit Çela covers the key economic data for the week ahead in this episode of Capital Markets Quickie. Pending home sales and PMIs take center stage in a quieter, holiday-shortened week! Just a quick reminder, Capital Markets Quickie is brought to you by AMF Capital AG, Asset Management Frankfurt, your leading provider for individual investment solutions and mutual funds. Visit https://www.amf-capital.de for more information. >>> Make sure to check out my newsletter "Cela's Weekly Insights": https://endritcela.com/newsletter/ >>> You can subscribe here to our YouTube Channel “MVP – Main Value Partners”: https://www.youtube.com/@MainValue >>> Visit my website for more information: http://www.endritcela.com >>> Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/endrit-cela/ >>> Follow me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/endritcela_official/ Disclaimer for "Capital Markets Quickie" Podcast: The views and opinions expressed on this podcast are based on information available at the time of recording and reflect the personal perspectives of the host. They do not represent the viewpoints of any other projects, cooperations, or affiliations the host may be involved in. "Capital Markets Quickie" does not offer financial advice. Before making any financial decisions, please conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.

APAC stocks saw an uninspiring start to the week following the mixed session on Wall Street on Friday and ahead of this week's risk events including the final FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meetings of the year.Moody's cut France's rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2", outlook stable, in an unscheduled rating revision, citing political fragmentation.South Korean MPs have successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt. Yoon was suspended from official duties on Saturday while PM Han is to continue as acting president, according to Yonhap.Bitcoin surged to fresh all-time highs above USD 106,000 and propped up the broader crypto market, with Ethereum rising above USD 4,000.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, EZ Labour Costs, ECB President Lagarde, de Guindos, Schnabel, and BoC's Macklem.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mostly lower; US futures are modestly in the green.DXY is flat, and GBP strengthens post-PMI while the JPY lags a touch.EGBs softer with OATs underperforming slightly post-Moody's downgrade, PMIs in focus.Crude slips amid a tepid risk tone, metals largely contained.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, ECB's Schnabel and BoC's Macklem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The latest data support our call for resilient, albeit divergent, growth. The PMIs for last month show global GDP tracking a strong, above potential pace with some welcome improvement for global industry. The US and China stand out to the upside, while Europe is the weak link. Despite resilient growth and sticky, elevated inflation, central banks seem inclined to continue their easing cycles. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Trump's tariff announcements have started to move markets. We discuss how to interpret the latest US political developments and provide a preview of this week's all important labour market data. In Asia, the Reserve Bank of India is set to meet and may offer some dovish guidance. While in Europe, we preview the PMIs and Swiss inflation data. Chapters: US (02:18), Asia (10:08), Europe (16:14).

We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Nora Szentivanyi This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

US stocks ultimately finished higher with APAC mostly sustaining this momentum though China laggedDXY contained but remains above 107.00, EUR below 1.05 and Cable near 1.2550Fixed benchmarks are firmer but only modestly so as we await Flash PMIsCrude underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions as Russia fired a new medium-range ballistic missileUS President-elect Trump considers Kevin Warsh to serve as Treasury Secretary and then Fed Chair, via WSJLooking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US PMIs, UK Retail Sales, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, Nagel, Villeroy, de Guindos & Schnabel, SNB's Schlegel & Fed's BowmanClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Equities began the session on a firmer footing but now reside in negative territory after dismal EZ PMI metrics.USD firmer and ultimately benefiting from poor EZ PMIs which forced EUR/USD briefly onto a 1.03 handle. Sterling hit on its own data and Retail Sales beforehand.Bonds soar in reaction to dire EZ PMIs which have boosted the odds of a 50bps ECB cut.Crude is slightly firmer, XAU bid and base metals hit by sentiment.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs. Speakers including ECB's Nagel, Villeroy & Schnabel, SNB's Schlegel & Fed's Bowman.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The combination of resurgent consumer spending and persistently sticky inflation near 3% is challenging consensus calls for Goldilocks. Next week's flash PMIs will be the first data prints post US election, and we will be closely watching the vibe expressed in the future output components. Manufacturing should indicate caution given trade war concerns, while the broader all-industry measure could show some widening divergence between the US and the rest of the world. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research and Global Chief Economist explain why they're watching the consumer savings rate, tariffs and capital expenditures.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Andrew Sheets: And today on this special episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing what could cause our optimistic view on the economy and credit to go wrong.Andrew Sheets: It's Friday, Oct 11th at 4pm in London.Seth Carpenter: And as it turns out, I'm in London with Andrew.Andrew Sheets: So, Seth you and your global economics team have been pretty optimistic on the economy this year. And have been firmly in the soft-landing camp. And I think we've seen some oscillation in the market's view around the economy over the course of the year, but more recently, we've started to see some better data and increasing confidence in that view.So, this is actually maybe the perfect opportunity to talk about – well, what could go wrong? And so, what are some of the factors that worry you most that could derail the story?Seth Carpenter: We have been pretty constructive all along the whole hiking cycle. In fact, we've been calling for a soft- landing. And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped. But it's worth remembering part of the soft-landing call for us, especially for the US is that coming out of COVID; the economy rebounded employment rebounded, but not proportionally. And so, for a long time, up until basically now, US firms had been operating shorthanded. And so, we were pretty optimistic that even if there was something that caused a slowdown, you were not going to see a wave of layoffs. And that's usually what contributes to a recession. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs.So, I have to say, there is gotta be just a little bit more risk because businesses basically backfilled most of their vacancies. And so, if we do get a big slowdown for some reason, maybe there's more risk than there was, say, a year ago. So, what could that something be is a real question. I think the first one is just -- there's just uncertainty.And maybe, just maybe, the restraint that monetary policy has imparted -- takes a little bit longer than we realized. It's a little bit bigger than we realized, and things are slowing down. We just haven't seen the full force of it, and we just slowed down a lot more.Not a whole lot I can do about that. I feel pretty good. Spending data is good. The last jobs report was good. So, I see that as a risk that just hangs over my head, like the sword of Damocles, at all times.Andrew Sheets: And, Seth, another thing I want to talk to you about is this analysis of the economy that we do with the data that's available. And yet we recently got some pretty major revisions to the US economic picture that have changed, you know, kind of our basic understanding of what the savings rate was, you know, what some of these indicators are.How have those revisions changed what you think the picture is?Seth Carpenter: So those benchmark revisions were important. But I will say it's not as though it was just a wholesale change in what we thought we understood. Instead, the key change that happened is we had information on GDP -- gross domestic product -- which comes from a lot of spending data. There's another bit of data that's gross domestic income that in some idealized economic model version of the world, those two things are the same -- but they had been really different. And the measured income had been much lower than the measured gross domestic product, the spending data. And so, it looked like the saving rate was very, very low.But it also raised a bit of a red flag, because if the savings rate is, is really low, and all of a sudden households go back to saving the normal amount, that necessarily means they'd slow their spending a lot, and that's what causes a downturn.So, it didn't change our view, baseline view, about where the economy was, but it helped resolve a sniggling, intellectual tension in the back of the head, and it did take away at least one of the downside risks, i.e. that the savings rate was overdone, and consumers might have to pull back.But I have to say, Andrew, another thing that could go wrong, could come from policy decisions that we don't know the answer to just yet. Let you in on a little secret. Don't tell anybody I told you this; but later this year, in fact, next month, there's an election in the United States.Andrew Sheets: Oh my goodness.Seth Carpenter: One of the policies that we have tried to model is tariffs. Tariffs are a tax. And so, the normal way I think a lot of people think about what tariffs might do is if you put a tax on consumer goods coming into the country, it could make them more expensive, could make people buy less, and so you'd get a little bit less activity, a little bit higher prices.In addition to consumer goods, though, we also import a lot of intermediate goods for production, so physical goods that are used in manufacturing in the United States to produce a final output. And so, if you're putting a tax on that, you'll get less manufacturing in the United States.We also import capital goods. So, things that go into business CapEx spending in the United States. And if you put a tax on that, well, businesses will do less investment spending. So, there's a disruption to actual US production, not just US consumption that goes on. And we actually think that could be material. And we've tried to model some of the policy proposals that are out there. 60 per cent tariff on China, 10 per cent tariff on the rest of the world.None of these answers are going to be exact, none of these are going to be precise, but you get something on the order of an extra nine-tenths of a percentage point of inflation, so a pretty big reversion in inflation. But maybe closing in on one and a half percentage points of a drag on GDP – if they were all implemented at the same time in full force.So that's another place where I think we could be wrong. It could be a big hit to the economy; but that's one place where there's just lots of uncertainty, so we have to flag it as a risk to our clients. But it's not in our baseline view.Seth Carpenter: But I have to say, you've been forcing me to question my optimism, which is entirely unfair. You, sir, have been pretty bullish on the credit market. Credit spreads are, dare I say it, really tight by historical standards.And yet, that doesn't cause you to want to call for mortgage spreads to widen appreciably. It doesn't call for you to want to go really short on credit. Why are you so optimistic? Isn't there really only one direction to go?Andrew Sheets: So, there are kind of a few factors the way that we're thinking about that. So, one is we do think that the fundamental backdrop, the economic forecast that you and your team have laid out are better than average for credit -- are almost kind of ideal for what a credit investor would like.Credit likes moderation. We're forecasting a lot of moderation. And, also kind of the supply and demand dynamics of the market. What we call the technicals are better than average. There's a lot of demand for bonds. And companies, while they're getting a little bit more optimistic, and a little bit more aggressive, they're not borrowing in the kind of hand over fist type of way that usually causes more problems. And so, you should have richer than average valuations. Now, in terms of, I think, what disrupts that story, it could be, well, what if the technicals or the fundamentals are no longer good? And, you know, I think you've highlighted some scenarios where the economic forecasts could change. And if those forecasts do change, we're probably going to need to think about changing our view. And that's also true bottom up. I think if we started to see Corporates get a lot more optimistic, a lot more aggressive. You know, hubris is often the enemy of the bond investor, the credit investor. I don't think we're there yet, but I think if we started to see that, that could present a larger problem. And both, you know, fundamentally it causes companies to take on more debt, but also kind of technically, because it means a lot more supply relative to demand.Seth Carpenter: I see. I see. But I wonder, you said, if our outlook, sort of, doesn't materialize, that's a clear path to a worse outcome for your market. And I think that makes sense.But the market hasn't always agreed with us. If we think back not that long ago to August, the market had real turmoil going on because we got a very weak Non Farm Payrolls print in the United States. And people started asking again. ‘Are you sure, Seth? Doesn't this mean we're heading for a recession?' And asset markets responded. What happened to credit markets then, and what does it tell you about how credit markets might evolve going forward, even if, at the end of the day, we're still right?Andrew Sheets: Well, so I think there have been some good indications that there were parts of the market where maybe investors were pretty vulnerably positioned. Where there was more leverage, more kind of aggressiveness in how investors were leaning, and the fact that credit, yes, credit weakened, but it didn't weaken nearly as much -- I think does suggest that investors are going to this market eyes wide open. They're aware that spreads are tight. So, I think that's important.The other I think really fundamental tension that I think credit investors are dealing with -- but also I think equity investors are -- is there are certain indicators that suggest a recession is more likely than normal. Things like the yield curve being inverted or purchasing manager indices, these PMIs being below 50.But that also doesn't mean that a recession is assured by any means. And so, I do think what can challenge the market is a starting point where people see indicators that they think mean a recession is more likely, some set of weak data that would seem to confirm that thesis, and a feeling that, well, the writing's on the wall.But I think it's also meant, and I think we've seen this since September, that this is a real, in very simple terms, kind of good is good market. You know, I got asked a lot in the aftermath of some of the September numbers, internally at Morgan Stanley, 'Is it, is it too good? Was the jobs number too good for credit?'And, and my view is, because I think the market is so firmly shifted to ‘we're worried about growth,' that it's going to take a lot more good data for that fear to really recede in the market to worry about something else.Seth Carpenter: Yeah, it's funny. Some people just won't take yes for an answer. Alright, let me, let me end up with one more question for you.So when we think about the cycle, I hear as I'm sure you do from lots of clients -- aren't we, late cycle, aren't things coming to an end? Have we ever seen a cycle before where the Fed hiked this much and it didn't end in tears? And the answer is actually yes. And so, I have often been pointing people to the 1990s.1994, there was a pretty substantial rate hiking cycle that doesn't look that different from what we just lived through. The Fed stopped hiking, held out at the peak for a while, and then the economy wobbled a little bit. It did slow down, and they cut rates. And some of the wobbles, for a while at least, looked pretty serious. The Fed, as it turns out, only cut 75 basis points and then held rates steady. The economy stabilized and we had another half decade of expansion.So, I'm not saying history is going to repeat itself exactly. But I think it should be, at least from my perspective, a good example for people to have another cycle to look at where things might turn out well with the soft landing.Looking back to that period, what happened in credit markets?Andrew Sheets: So, that mid-90s soft-landing was in the modern history of credit -- call it the last 40 years -- the tightest credit spreads have ever been. That was in 1997. And they were still kind of materially tighter from today's levels.So we do have historical evidence that it can mean the market can trade tighter than here. It's also really fascinating because the 1990s were kind of two bull markets. There was a first stage that, that stage you were suggesting where, you know, the Fed started cutting; but the market wasn't really sure if it was going to stick that landing, if the economy was going to be okay. And so, you saw this period where, as the data did turn out to be okay, credit went tighter, equities went up, the two markets moved in the same direction.But then it shifted. Then, as the cycle had been extending for a while, kind of optimism returned, and even too much optimism maybe returned, and so from '97, mid-97 onwards, equities kept going up, the stock market kept rallying, credit spreads went wider, expected volatility went higher. And so, you saw that relationship diverge.And so, I do think that if we do get the '90s, if we're that lucky, and hopefully we do get that sort of scenario, it was good in a lot of ways. But I think we need to be on the watch for those two stages. We still think we're in stage one. We still think they're that stage that's more benign, but eventually benign conditions can lead to more aggressiveness.Seth Carpenter: I think that's really fair. So, we started off talking about optimism and I would like to keep it that you pointed out that the '90s required a bit of good luck and I would wholeheartedly agree with that.So, I still remain constructive, but I don't remain naive. I think there are ways for things to go wrong. And there is a ton of uncertainty ahead, so it might be a rocky ride. It's always great to get to talk to you, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: Great to talk to you as well, Seth.And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley's chief economists take stock of a resilient global economy that has weathered a recent period of market volatility, in Part I of our two-part roundtable.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. And on this special episode of the podcast, we'll hold our third roundtable discussion focusing on Morgan Stanley's global economic outlook as we enter the final quarter of 2024.I am joined today by our economics team from three regions.Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Jens Eisenschmidt: I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist.Diego Anzoategui: I'm Diego Anzoategui from the US Economics team.It's Monday, October 7th at 10 am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3 pm in London.Seth Carpenter: I have to say, a lot has happened since the last time we held this roundtable. To say the very least, we've had volatility in financial markets. But on balance, I kind of have to say the global economy has more or less performed the way we expected.The US economy is cruising towards a soft landing. The labor market maybe is a touch softer than we expected, but consumer spending has remained resilient. In Asia, Japan's reflation story is largely intact, while China is still confronting that debt deflation cycle that we've talked about. And in Europe, the tepid growth we had envisioned -- well, it's continuing. Inflation is falling, but the ECB seems to be accelerating its rate cuts. So, let's get into the details.Diego, I'm going to start with you and the US. The Fed cut interest rates in September for the first time this cycle, and they cut by 50 basis points instead of the 25 basis points that some people -- including us -- were expecting. So, the big question for you is, where does the Fed go from here?Diego Anzoategui: So, we are looking for a string of 25 basis point cuts from the Fed as long as labor markets hold up. Inflation has come down notably and we expect a normalization of interest rates ahead. But, of course, we might be wrong again. Labor markets might cool too much, and in that case, one or two additional 50 basis point cuts might happen again.Seth Carpenter: So, either the Fed glides into the soft landing or they pick up the pace and they cut faster.So, Jens, let me turn to you and pivot to Europe. You recently changed your forecast for the ECB, and you're now looking for a rate cut in October. And that's following two cuts already that the ECB has done. So, what prompted your change? Is it like what Diego said about a softer outcome prompting a faster pace of cuts. What's likely to happen next for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: That's right. We changed our ECB call. And to understand why we have to go back to September. So already at the September meeting the ECB president, Lagarde, made clear in the press conference that the bank was a little bit less concerned about structurally high services inflation that is forecast to be persistently high still for some time to come -- mainly because there was more conviction that wages would come down eventually.And so, they could really focus a little bit more, give a bit more attention to the growth side of things. Just as a reminder, the Fed has a dual mandate. So, it's growth and inflation. The ECB only has inflation. So basically, if the ECB wants to act on growth, it needs to be sure that inflation is under control. And then since September what happened is that literally every single indicator, leading indicator, for inflation was negative. We had lower oil prices, we had a stronger euro, and of course, also weaker activity in terms of the PMIs pointing to a cooling of the ongoing recovery.So, all of that led us to revise our inflation forecast, and that means that ECB will very likely already be a target mid next year. That should lead to an acceleration of the rate cut cycle. And then it's only a question, will it be already in October or in December? And here comes the September inflation print in, which was softer in particular on the core or on the services component than expected. And we think that has tilted the balance; or will tilt the balance in favor of an October rate cut.So, what we see now is October, December, January, March -- 25 basis points rate cuts by the ECB leading to a rate of 250. Then this being close to neutral, they will slow down again, quarterly rate cut pace. So, June, September, December, 25 basis points each -- leading to a final rate end of next year at 175.Seth Carpenter: Okay, got it. So, inflation has come down in most developed market economies. Central banks are starting to cut. For the Fed, there's an open question about how much strength the labor market still has and whether or not they need to do 50 basis points or 25.But I have to say, Chetan -- and I'm going to come to you because -- in Asia, we saw a lot of market turmoil in August, and that was partly prompted by the rate hike of the BoJ. So, here's a developed market economy central bank that's not cutting. In fact, they're starting to raise interest rates. So, what happened there? And what do you think happens with the BoJ going forward?Chetan Ahya: Well, Seth, in our base case, we do expect BoJ to hike by another 25 basis points in January next year. And as regards to your question on what happened in terms of the volatility that we saw in the month of August? Essentially, as the BoJ took up its first rate hike, there was a lot of concern that BoJ will go in a consecutive manner, taking up successive rate hikes. But at the end of the day, what we saw was, BoJ realizing that there is a clear endogeneity between financial conditions and their reaction function. And as that communication was clearly laid out, we saw markets calming down. And now going forward, what we think BoJ will be watching will be the data on inflation and wages.We think they would be waiting to see what happens to the inflation data in the month of November and October, i.e., whether there is a clear, rise in services inflation, which has been running at around 1.3 per cent. And they would want to see that wage pass through to services inflation is continuing.And then secondly, they will want to see what is happening to the wage expectations from the workers in the next round of spring wage negotiations. The demand from workers will be clear by the end of this year, so sometime in December. And therefore, we think BoJ will look at that information and then take up a rate hike in the month of January next year.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so if I step back for a second, even if there are a few parts of the puzzle that still need to fall into place, it sounds to me like you're saying the Japan reflation story is still intact. Is that fair?Chetan Ahya: That's right. We think that, you know, the comment from the prime minister that came out a few days back; he's very clear that he wants to see a situation where Japan gets rid of deflation. So, we think that the policymakers are fully lined up to ensure that the reflation story remains intact.Seth Carpenter: That's super helpful and it just absolutely contrasts with what we've been saying about China, where they have sort of the opposite story. There's been a debt deflation cycle that you and the Chinese team have really been highlighting for a long time now, talking about the challenges for policy.We did get some news out of Beijing in terms of policy stimulus. Could you and break down for us what happened there and whether or not you think that's enough to really shift China's trajectory away from this debt deflation cycle?Chetan Ahya: Yes, Seth, so essentially, we got three things from Chinese policy makers. Number one, they took up big monetary policy easing. Number two, they announced a package to support the equity markets. And number three, they announced some measures to support the property market.Now we think that these measures are a positive and particularly the property market measures will be helpful. But in terms of real impediment for China's reflation story, we think that the key need of the hour is to take up aggressive fiscal easing to boost consumption. Monetary policy easing is helpful, but it's not really the key impediment to the reflation path.Seth Carpenter: All right, so if I wanted to see the glass as half full, I would say, look at this! Beijing policymakers have turned the corners. They're acknowledging that there's some policy impetus that needs to be put into place. But if I wanted to see the glass as half empty, I could take away from what you just said, that there just needs to be more, maybe fiscal stimulus to directly promote household spending.Is that that fair?Chetan Ahya: That's absolutely right. What's happening in China is that there has been a big structural adjustment in the property sector because now the total population is declining. And so therefore there is a big demand hole that is being left by the weakness in housing sector.Ideally, what they should be doing, as I was mentioning earlier, [is] that they should be taking a big fiscal easing to support consumption spending. But so far what we've been seeing is that they've been trying to fill that demand hole with more supply in form of investment in manufacturing and infrastructure sector.And unfortunately, that's been actually making the deflation challenge more complex. So going forward, we think that, you know, we should be watching out what they do in terms of fiscal stimulus. There was a comment in the Politburo statement that they will take up fiscal easing. We suspect that the timing of that fiscal policy announcement could be by end of this month alongside National People's Congress meeting. And so, what will be the size of fiscal stimulus will be important to watch as well.Currently, we think it could be one to two trillion RMB. But in our work that we did in terms of what is the scale of fiscal stimulus that is needed to boost consumption, we estimate that it should be somewhere around a 10 trillion RMB spread over two years.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Thanks, Chetan. Super helpful.Gentlemen, I have to say, we might have to stop here for the day. But tomorrow, I want to get [to] another topic, which is to say, the upcoming US election. It's got huge implications for the macroeconomy in the US and around the world. And I think we're going to have to touch on it. But for now, we'll end the conversation here.And thank you, the listeners, for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley's chief economists examine the varied responses of global central banks to noisy inflation data in their quarterly roundtable discussion.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's global chief economist. We have a special two-part episode of the podcast where we'll cover Morgan Stanley's global economic outlook as we look into the third quarter of 2024.It's Friday, June 21st at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong.Seth Carpenter: Alright, so a lot's happened since our last economics roundtable on this podcast back in March and since we published our mid-year outlook in May. My travels have taken me to many corners of the globe, including Tokyo, Sao Paulo, Sydney, Washington D. C., Chicago.Two themes have dominated every one of my meetings. Inflation in central banks on the one hand, and then on the other hand, elections.In the first part of this special episode, I wanted to discuss these key topics with the leaders of Morgan Stanley Economics in key regions. Ellen Zentner is our Chief US Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt is our Chief Europe Economist, and Chetan Ahya is our Chief Asia Economist.Ellen, I'm going to start with you. You've also been traveling. You were in London recently, for example. In your conversations with folks, what are you explaining to people? Where do things stand now for the Fed and inflation in the US?Ellen Zentner: Thanks, Seth. So, we told people that the inflation boost that we saw in the first quarter was really noise, not signal, and it would be temporary; and certainly, the past three months of data have supported that view. But the Fed got spooked by that re-acceleration in inflation, and it was quite volatile. And so, they did shift their dot plot from a median of three cuts to a median of just one cut this year. Now, we're not moved by the dot plot. And Chair Powell told everyone to take the projections with a grain of salt. And we still see three cuts starting in September.Jens Eisenschmidt: If you don't mind me jumping in here, on this side of the Atlantic, inflation has also been noisy and the key driver behind repricing in rate expectations. The ECB delivered its cut in June as expected, but it didn't commit to much more than that. And we had, in fact, anticipated that cautious outcome simply because we have seen surprises to the upside in the April, and in particular in the May numbers. And here, again, the upside surprise was all in services inflation.If you look at inflation and compare between the US experience and euro area experience, what stands out at that on both sides of the Atlantic, services inflation appears to be the sticky part. So, the upside surprises in May in particular probably have left the feeling in the governing council that the process -- by which they got more and more confidence in their ability to forecast inflation developments and hence put more weight on their forecast and on their medium-term projections – that confidence and that ability has suffered a slight setback. Which means there is more focus now for the next month on current inflation and how it basically compares to their forecast.So, by implication, we think upside surprises or continued upside surprises relative to the ECB's path, which coincides in the short term with our path, will be a problem; will mean that the September rate cut is put into question.For now, our baseline is a cut in September and another one in December. So, two more this year. And another four next year.Seth Carpenter: Okay, I get it. So, from my perspective, then, listening to you, Jens, listening to Ellen, we're in similar areas; the timing of it a little bit different with the upside surprise to inflation, but downward trend in inflation in both places. ECB already cutting once. Fed set to start cutting in September, so it feels similar.Chetan, the Bank of Japan is going in exactly the opposite direction. So, our view on the reflation in Japan, from my conversations with clients, is now becoming more or less consensus. Can you just walk us through where things stand? What do you expect coming out of Japan for the rest of this year?Chetan Ahya: Thanks, Seth. So, Japan's reflation story is very much on track. We think a generational shift from low-flation to new equilibrium of sustainable moderate inflation is taking hold. And we see two key factors sustaining this story going forward. First is, we expect Japan's policymakers to continue to keep macro policies accommodative. And second, we think a virtuous cycle of higher prices and wages is underway.The strong spring wage negotiation results this year will mean wage growth will rise to 3 percent by third quarter and crucially the pass through of wages to prices is now much stronger than in the past -- and will keep inflation sustainably higher at 1.5 to 2 per cent. This is why we expect BOJ to hike by 15 basis points in July and then again in January of next year by 25 basis points, bringing policy rates to 0.5 per cent.We don't expect further rate hikes beyond that, as we don't see inflation overshooting the 2 percent target sustainably. We think Governor Ueda would want to keep monetary policy accommodative in order for reflation to become embedded. The main risk to our outlook is if inflation surprises to the downside. This could materialize if the wage to price pass through turns out to be weaker than our estimates.Seth Carpenter: All of that was a great place to start. Inflation, central banking, like I said before, literally every single meeting I've had with clients has had a start there. Equity clients want to know if interest rates are coming down. Rates clients want to know where interest rates are going and what's going on with inflation.But we can't forget about the overall economy: economic activity, economic growth. I will say, as a house, collectively for the whole globe, we've got a pretty benign outlook on growth, with global growth running about the same pace this year as last year. But that top level view masks some heterogeneity across the globe.And Chetan I'm going to come right back to you, staying with topics in Asia. Because as far as I can remember, every conversation about global economic activity has to have China as part of it. China's been a key part of the global story. What's our current thinking there in China? What's going on this year and into next year?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, in China, cyclically improving exports trend has helped to stabilize growth, but the structural challenges are still persisting. The biggest structural challenge that China faces is deflation. The key source of deflationary pressure is the housing sector. While there is policy action being taken to address this issue, we are of the view that housing will still be a drag on aggregate demand. To contextualize, the inventory of new homes is around 20 million units, as compared to the sales of about 7 to 8 million units annually. Moreover, there is another 23 million units of existing home inventory.So, we think it would take multiple years for this huge inventory overhang tobe digested to a more reasonable level. And as downturn in the property sector is resulting in downward pressures on aggregate demand, policy makers are supporting growth by boosting supply.Consider the shifts in flow of credit. Over the past few years, new loans to property sector have declined by about $700 billion, but this has been more than offset by a rise of about $500 billion in new loans for industrial sector, i.e. manufacturing investment, and $200 billion loans for infrastructure. This supply -centric policy response has led to a buildup of excess capacities in a number of key manufacturing sectors, and that is keeping deflationary pressures alive for longer. Indeed, we continue to see the diversions of real GDP growth and normal GDP growth outcomes. While real GDP growth will stabilize at 4.8 per cent this year, normal GDP growth will still be somewhat subdued at 4.5 per cent.Seth Carpenter: Thanks, Chetan. That's super helpful.Jens, let's think about the euro area, where there had, been a lot of slower growth relative to the US. I will say, when I'm in Europe, I get that question, why is the US outperforming Europe? You know, I think, my read on it, and you should tell me if I'm right or not -- recent data suggests that things, in terms of growth at least have bottomed out in Europe and might be starting to look up. So, what are you thinking about the outlook for European growth for the rest of the year? Should we expect just a real bounce back in Europe or what's it going to look like?Jens Eisenschmidt: Indeed, growth has bottomed. In fact, we are emerging from a period of stagnation last year; and as expected in our NTIA Outlook in November we had outlined the script -- that based on a recovery in consumption, which in turn is based on real wage gains. And fading restrictiveness of monetary policy, we would get a growth rebound this year. And the signs are there that we are exactly getting this, as expected.So, we had a very strong first quarter, which actually led us to upgrade still our growth that we had before at 0.5 to 0.7. And we have the PMIs, the survey indicators indicating indeed that the growth rebound is set to continue. And we have also upgraded the growth outlook for 2025 from 1 to 1.2 per cent here on the back of stronger external demand assumptions. So, all in all, the picture looks pretty consistent with that rebound.At the same time, one word of caution is that it won't get very fast. We will see growth very likely peaking below the levels that were previous peaks simply because potential growth is lower; we think is lower than it has been before the pandemic. So just as a measure, we think, for instance, that potential growth in Europe could be here lie between one, maybe one, 1 per cent, whereas before it would be rather 1.5 per cent.Seth Carpenter: Okay, that makes a lot of sense. So, some acceleration, maybe not booming, maybe not catching the US, but getting a little bit of convergence. So, Ellen, bring it back to the US for us. What are you thinking about growth for the US? Are we going to slump and slow down and start to look like Europe? Are things going to take off from here?Things have been pretty good. What do you think is going to happen for the rest of this year and into next year?Ellen Zentner: Yes, I think for the year overall, you know, growth is still going to be solid in the US, but it has been slowing compared with last year. And if I put a ‘the big picture view' around it, you've got a fiscal impulse, where it's fading, right? So, we had big fiscal stimulus around COVID, which continues to fade. You had big infrastructure packages around the CHIPS Act and the IRA, where the bulk of that spending has been absorbed. And so that fiscal impulse is fading. But you've still got the monetary policy drag, which continues to build.Now, within that, the immigration story is a very big offset. What does it mean, you know, for the mid-year outlook? We had upgraded growth for this year and next quite meaningfully. And we completely changed how we were thinking about sort of the normal run rate of job growth that would keep the unemployment rate steady.So, whereas just six months ago, we thought it was around 100,000 to 120,000 a month, now we think that we can grow the labor market at about 250,000 a month, without being inflationary. And so that allows for that bigger but not tighter economy, which has been a big theme of ours since the mid-year outlook.And so, I'm throwing in the importance of immigration in here because I know you want to talk about elections later on. So, I want to flag that as not just a positive for the economy, but a risk to the outlook as well.Now, finally, key upcoming data is going to inform our view for this year. So, I'm looking for: Do households slow their spending because labor income growth is slowing? Does inflation continue to come down? And do job gains hold up?Seth Carpenter: Alright, thanks Ellen. That helps a lot, and it puts things into perspective. And you're right, I do want to move on to elections, but that will be for the second part of this special episode. Catch that in your podcast feeds on Monday.For now, thank you for listening. And if you enjoy the podcast, please leave a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts On the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger Picture The green new scam is falling apart just like the economy. EV makers are now laying people, it's all falling apart. The people are now reporting that they are worse off now than when Trump was in the WH. The [CB] has failed and the fake news is now reporting that we are in a selective recession, Biden/Fed ready to counter. The [DS] cannot stop the great awakening, once the people started to wake there was not stopping it. Trump hints at a change of batter and the fake news begins the narrative that Kamala can step into Biden's shoes. Kenya delegates are in DC, Obama is in the WH, coincidence? Trump is making the election to big to rig, this will force the [DS] to abandon their cheating system. No matter which way the [DS] turns they are trapped.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy Luxury Electric Vehicle Maker Becomes Latest In Industry To Announce Huge Layoffs Electric vehicle (EV) maker Lucid Motors announced that the company would be laying off staff in a bid to lower expenses amid a slowdown in the market. The layoffs will affect 6% of its workforce, equating to around 400 employees, and will trim from all employee levels, including leadership and mid-level management, according to a filing submitted Friday with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Lucid is one of several EV makers to announce layoffs in recent months as consumers decline to adopt the product at the rate expected.   The company estimates that it will have to pay out between $21 million and $25 million in severance pay and benefits in connection with the layoffs, according to the filing. The planned terminations are expected to be done by the end of the third quarter.   Source: dailycaller.com Durable Goods Orders Suffer Yet Another Downward Revision  Following yesterday's 'good' news from PMIs, this morning we get 'hard' data confirming that 'good' news with preliminary April Durable Goods orders surging 0.7% MoM (vs -0.8% MoM expected). However, as is the way with Bidenomics, March's +2.6% MoM surge in orders was revised down to a +0.8% MoM rise. This is the third month in a row of MoM gains for durable goods new orders and lifts the nominal YoY move to +1.3%... Source: Bloomberg Over the last 14 months, durable goods orders have been revised lower 9 times (and the downward revisions are considerably larger than the upward revisions)... Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/Fxhedgers/status/1793713188669944312 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1793788590972895667 TAKE A LISTEN https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1794042209433456968   https://twitter.com/prayingmedic/status/1793725838246203708 https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1793927733707505796 https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1793710577212170606  applying pressure earlier this year with tweets and getting people to call the co-sponsors to change it to a complete 100% ban.   https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1793750833592455475   The US economy is in a 'selective recession' as lower-income consumers can't cover the cost of living, JPMorgan says   Lower-income Americans are already in a recession, according to JPMorgan's Matthew Boss. The analyst said the US was in a "selective" recession as some consumers . 67% of middle-class Americans said they believed their income wasn't keeping up with the cost of living.  The US economy is in a "selective recession," as lower-income Americans are struggling to ge...