Podcasts about pmis

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US faces a federal government shutdown as markets start to realise Trump has no problem being reckless and has no problem hurting his 'friends'..But first, there was another Pulse dairy auction overnight. And that brought marginally weaker prices for both SMP and WMP, down a bit less than -0.5% in USD terms. In fact these prices are now at their lowest level of 2025. But because the NZD is falling, the prices achieved actually rose about the same amount in local currency.In the US, the number of job openings in August were virtually unchanged from July at 7.2 mln as was expected.But the Chicago PMI fell again in September, well below market expectations that it would improve. And the dip was sharp, the most in three months.Also weaker was the Dallas Fed services sector with their retail sector retreating rather fast in an unusual move lower.Adding to the downbeat sentiment was the September report from the Conference Board showing consumers are glummer than at any time since the start of the year. A common theme in the survey responses is the impact of rising inflation.And the downbeat sentiment may well get worse, and quickly. The White House seems to relish a full government shutdown to start their fiscal year tomorrow with mass firings rather than furloughs. And Trump says some American cities he considers dangerous should become training grounds for American troops, proposing 'his' troops be used to fight other Americans in their home cities. It is getting toxic very fast there.For their economy, there is a real possibility now that this weekend's non-farm payrolls release will be cancelled because the department releasing it will be closed. If that turns out to be the case, it could mask some quite weak results. Analysts now expect less than a +50,000 gain.Financial markets are downplaying the risks of all this, mainly because there have been many 'shutdown' crises over the decades. But at least the earlier ones involved parties prepared to reach a deal. Maybe not this time.Across the Pacific in China, their official factory PMI contracted again. But even though it is the sixth straight monthly contraction, the pace of decline was the least in that time. (Their factory PMI rose in February and March, but only by marginal levels.) Their official services PMI for September is no longer expanding. These official PMIs have been more conservative than the private surveys (RatingDog, ex Caixin) probably because they have a heavier weighting to Chinese SOEs. The private ones are more attuned to private and foreign enterprises, surveyed by S&P Global, and they report a faster expanding factory sector, and solidly expanding services sector.Meanwhile, China has frozen imports of BHP iron ore in a pricing dispute. BHP is their third largest supplier after Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale.Taiwanese consumer sentiment rose in September, but to be fair the bar is low because it has been stunted since May.In Europe, Germany said their CPI inflation edged up to 2.4% in September, marginally above the August level. But ist was a rise that was slightly more than expected.In Australia, there were no surprises from their central bank which held its cash rate target at 3.6%. But even though this hold was all priced in, there was some surprising reaction in financial markets. Somehow the decision was regarded as 'hawkish' and the AUD rose and benchmark bond interest rates fell on the news. The strong currency remained although the bond move was later reversed. Air cargo volumes in August grew +4.1% globally, driven by a near +10% rise from a year ago in the Asia/Pacific region. But notably, North American air cargo volumes fell -2.1% on the same basis in August, the weakest global region. And the pattern was similar for passenger travel. Asia/Pacific and Latin America brought strong growth, underpinning a +4.6% expansion, but North America lagged here too, only up +0.5% from a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is still at 4.14%, unchanged from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3846/oz, up +US$16 from yesterday and a new all-time high. Silver is -50 USc softer however.American oil prices are down another -50 USc at just over US$62.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just under US$66.50/bbl and down more than -US$1.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58 USc and up +20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie however we are down -30 bps at 87.6 AUc and a new three year low. Against the euro we are little-changed at 49.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 65.1, and unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$112,876 and down -0.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

A estrategista-chefe de investimentos do BB Private, Julia Baulé, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Na Europa, os PMIs mostraram recuperação nos serviços, mas contração na indústria, com destaque positivo para a Alemanha e queda na França e Reino Unido. No Brasil, a ata do Copom confirmou a manutenção da Selic em 15%, enquanto o IPCA-15 voltou a subir e o dólar se manteve estável. O Banco Central revisou para baixo a projeção do PIB de 2025, e a confiança do consumidor teve leve alta. Para os próximos dias, o foco estará nos dados de emprego nos EUA, na prévia da inflação na Europa e, no Brasil, na divulgação da produção industrial, taxa de desemprego e votação das MPs que tratam da isenção do IR até R$ 5 mil e da tributação de LCIs e LCAs."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report and the Electric vehicle sector. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference in London. In Asia – a look ahead to the China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report and the Electric vehicle sector. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference in London. In Asia – a look ahead to the China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Tomás Goulart, Sarah Campos e Victor Ary debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, os PMIs americanos mostraram moderação na atividade e nos preços. Entretanto, a revisão do PIB e os pedidos de auxílio desemprego abaixo do esperado reforçaram a resiliência da atividade. Dados recentes de agosto, como pedidos de bens duráveis e consumo real, surpreenderam positivamente. Na Europa, os PMIs vieram em linha com as expectativas. No campo geopolítico, tensões voltaram a crescer após declarações de Trump sobre apoio a contraofensivas ucranianas. No Brasil, o IPCA-15 de setembro veio abaixo do esperado. A ata do Copom e o Relatório de Política Monetária mantiveram tom conservador, demonstrando preocupação com a trajetória desancorada das expectativas e confiança na desaceleração da atividade econômica. No cenário político, manifestações da esquerda ganharam força no final de semana e pressionaram a retirada de pautas sensíveis do Congresso, como a PEC da Blindagem. Ainda, o noticiário foi repleto de informações divergentes sobre as candidaturas de direita para 2026. No mercado de crédito, as emissões no primário foram um pouco mais fracas, com cerca de R$7,2 bi de emissões tradicionais e R$2,9 bi de incentivadas. Os índices DI core e DI low rated abriram 5 e 6,8 bps, respectivamente, enquanto o índice de incentivadas fechou mais 7 bps. Porém, as atenções ficaram voltadas para as repercussões dos cases de Ambipar e Braskem, esclarecidos no episódio. Nos EUA, a curva de juros abriu ao longo de todos os vértices, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho negativo (S&P 500 -0,31%). No Brasil, a curva de juros também abriu, o Ibovespa caiu 0,29% e, o real, 0,37%. Na próxima semana, destaque para dados de mercado de trabalho e possibilidade de shutdown nos EUA, inflação na Europa e emprego e atividade no Brasil.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Tom Busby take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the U.S jobs report and the Electric vehicle sector. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bloomberg Women, Money, Power conference in London. In Asia – a look ahead to the China PMI data. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textDollar traders eagerly await ISM PMIs and US jobs report. RBA to remain on hold, focus to fall on forward guidance. Eurozone CPI data could revive ECB rate cut bets. Yen traders may scrutinize the BoJ Summary of Opinions.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

In Round 1, PMIS saw only 280 companies offered 82,000 internships to students. Only 28,000 candidates accepted opportunities with the firms and ultimately, just 8,725 joined.  

US equities struggled to keep up with the recent momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 posting its worst day in three weeks, while the NASDAQ and the Magnificent 7 saw even larger declines. Questions around the Nvidia-OpenAI-deal weighed on segment. Over in Europe, there was much more of a risk-on tone after the September flash PMIs painted a picture of ongoing resilience. Powell did not offer any groundbreaking revelations in yesterday's press conference, reiterating his arguments for last week's rate cut. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, discusses what the restarted rate cutting cycle means for equities going into year end, as well as what he thinks about Swiss equities after August's tariff shock.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:52) - Equity market update and outlook: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (11:40) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Latest business activity PMIs from Europe showed a mixed picture in the Eurozone and brought fresh concerns over the health of the British economy. Does the latter shift the outlook for the BoE? And what do bond investors think about the Federal Reserve's latest decision? Our analysts also dissect the latest monetary policy decisions in Scandinavia, where both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank joined the Fed in cutting interest rates.We'd like to hear from you! Provide us with feedback so we can improve the podcast: https://linktr.ee/fxtalk Liked this show? Please leave us a review here – even one sentence helps!

APAC stocks eventually traded mixed as the positive sentiment from Wall Street failed to sustain during APAC trade despite a lack of fresh catalysts. there was an absence of Japanese volume as participants were away due to the Autumnal Equinox holiday.OpenAI and NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership to deploy 10 gigawatts of NVIDIA systems, with NVIDIA to invest up to USD 100bln in OpenAI.US President Trump to speak at 09:50 ET /14:50 BST at the UN General Assembly; EU and E3 to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister at 10:00ET / 15:00 BST on Tuesday.European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 Future +0.1% after cash closed with losses of 0.3% on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, Riksbank Announcement; NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB's Cipollone, BoC's Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany, US; Earnings from Micron, Kingfisher.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses gradually climb higher and currently at peaks; US equity futures are flat awaiting Fed Chair Powell.GBP hit by soft PMI, Eurozone data showed diverging fortunes for manufacturing and services.USTs are essentially flat; Gilts modestly out-edge peers following disappointing flash PMI metrics.Crude initially in the red but have managed to climb higher, XAU at another ATH, catching a bid on reports that China aims to become custodian of foreign gold reserves.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs (Sep), US Richmond Fed Index, NBH Policy Announcement; Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Powell, Bostic, Bowman, ECB's Cipollone, BoC's Macklem, US President Trump at UN General Assembly; Supply from the US; Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the latest data shows American business activity slowing further.But first up this morning we should note that the overnight dairy Pulse event brought little-change to either the ASMP or WMP prices. This is as expected for SMP but 'better' than expected for WMP. In NZD however there was a rise because the Kiwi dollar fell. All eyes are now on tomorrows Fonterra annual report.There were also no surprises in the S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US for September. Both their flash factory and services PMI reading eased slightly, but are not contracting. Growth may be slowing, but selling price inflation is cooling too. The report noted weak new order growth and tariff-taxes were widely cited as the main cause of sharply higher costs, but the weaker demand and stiff competition reportedly limited the scope to raise selling prices,And that is confirmed in the Richmond Fed factory survey which turned down sharply in September. New order levels were weak, cost pressures strong. Services in the same mid-Atlantic area were not very positive either.There was another very large US Treasury 2yr Note auction today, one that saw another pull-back in overall support although the coverage remains strong. The median yield dipped to 3.52% from 3.60% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.In China, Nikkei has found that retail consumer loans are going bad faster, the latest headache for Chinese lenders already plagued by the country's real estate problems. And it comes just when the government aims to stimulate consumption through increased consumer debt backed up by more public borrowings. Nikkei Asia combed through the latest interim disclosures by mainland banks listed in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong and found that nonperforming personal loans rose at a faster pace than those in the real estate sector during the first half of the year.Overnight, Taiwan reported yet another outstandingly good export orders data, again exceeding the expected very good expansion.Super Typhoon Ragasa is expected to hit Hong Kong today, and they are still expecting up to a 5m storm surge (above chart datum). But the eye of the storm is passing slightly south, so it will affect large parts of southern China.India's PMI's were again very expansionary in September for both their services and factory sectors. No signs of cooling in this market.In Europe, their PMIs continue with a modest expansion, even if it is their best in 16 months. But new order levels are only holding, not growing. And the factory sector is now not expanding.And the Swedes delivered a surprise cut to their policy rate, down -25 bps to 1.75%. They cited geopolitical tensions and uncertain US trade policy as the reasons for the move now even though they are experiencing good current growth with inflation up at 3.2% when 2% is their target.In Australia, their PMI's reveal a pullback in September but both sectors are still expanding.Globally, the OECD reported that the global economy was more resilient than anticipated in the first half of 2025, but downside risks loom large as higher barriers to trade and geopolitical and policy uncertainty continue to weigh on activity in many economies. New Zealand doesn't feature in this report, but is sees Australian growth rising, Chinese growth holding at a reasonably good level, and US growth halving to a weak level by 2026.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.12%, down -2 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3781/oz, up another +US$45 from yesterday and a new ATH. Silver was little-changed but still up over US$44/oz.American oil prices are up +US$1 at just under US$63.50/bbl, with the international Brent price now just on US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 58.6 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 88.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 65.7, down -20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$111,974 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Sarah Campos, Yara Cordeiro e Victor Ary debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana. No cenário internacional, o destaque foi a decisão do Fed, que cortou os juros em 25 bps, como esperado. Apesar de projeções atualizadas indicando crescimento mais forte e inflação acima da meta em 2026, a decisão reflete maior preocupação com a desaceleração do mercado de trabalho. Outros bancos centrais também tomaram decisões: no Canadá, a redução também foi de 0,25%, como esperado, mas sem guidance relevante; na Inglaterra, o juro foi mantido inalterado, demonstrando ainda preocupação com a inflação elevada; e no Japão também não houve alteração, com tom mais hawkish. No Brasil, o Copom manteve a Selic em 15% e sinalizou ter ganhado convicção de ter chegado no patamar de juros suficientemente restritivo, apesar de manter a possibilidade de retomada do ciclo de alta caso necessário. A projeção de inflação para 2026 foi mantida em 3,4%, o que reduz a probabilidade de cortes ainda este ano. Do lado de atividade, a taxa de desemprego cedeu e rendimentos subiram, reforçando resiliência do mercado de trabalho. A Câmara aprovou regime de urgência para o projeto de anistia aos envolvidos no 8/1; a “PEC da blindagem”, que gerou repercussão negativa; e a MP que garante ampliação da isenção da conta de luz. As pesquisas de opinião, apesar de mistas, mostraram estagnação na aprovação do governo. No mercado de crédito, o fluxo de captação seguiu positivo, pressionando o mercado secundário. No mercado primário, houve emissão de R$5 bi de debêntures tradicionais, e R$2,5 bi de incentivadas. Observou-se fechamento de 6 bps na parcela “low rated” do índice e 5 bps na parcela de infraestrutura. Nos EUA, a curva de juros abriu nos vértices longos e fechou nos curtos, com S&P 500 em alta de 1,22%. No Brasil, os juros fecharam, o Ibovespa subiu 2,53% e o real se valorizou 0,57%. Na próxima semana, atenção ao PCE e PMIs nos EUA, além das falas de dirigentes do Fed. No Brasil, destaque para ata do Copom, IPCA-15 de setembro, RPM e o Relatório Bimestral de Receitas e Despesas do governo. Confira!

Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference. So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle. Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum. And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front? Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth. Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable. And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline growth here is effectively zero. Michelle Weaver: And how does power play into the reshoring story? AI and data centers are generating huge demand for power that well outstrip supply. Is there a risk that companies that want to reshore are not able to do so because of the power constraints?Christopher Snyder: It's a great question. I think it's part of the reason that this is moving more slowly. The companies that sell this power equipment tend to prioritize the data center customers given their scale in magnitude of buying. But ultimately, we think this is coming and it's a big opportunity for U.S. power to extend the upcycle.Manufacturing accounts for 26 percent of the electricity in the country. Data center accounts for about 5 percent. So, if the industrial economy returns to growth, there will be a huge pull on the grid; and I view it as a competitive advantage. If you think about the future of U.S. manufacturing, we're simply taking labor out and replacing it with electricity. That is a phenomenal trade off for the U.S. And a not as positive trade off for a lot of low-cost regions who essentially export labor to the world. I'm sure Adam will have more to say about that. Michelle Weaver: And Adam, I want to bring robotics and humanoid specifically into this conversation as the U.S.' technological edge is a big part of the reshoring story. So how do humanoids fit into reshoring? How much would they cost to use and how could they make American manufacturing more attractive? Adam Jonas: Humanoid robots – we're talking age agentic robots that make decisions from themselves autonomously due to the dual purpose in the military. You know, dual purpose aspect of it makes it absolutely necessary to onshore the technologies.At the same time, humanoid robots actually make it possible to onshore those technologies. Meaning you need; we're not going to be able to replicate manufacturing and onshore manufacturing the way it's currently done in China with their environmental practices and their labor – availability of affordable cheap human labor.Autonomous robots are both the cause of onshoring. And the effect of onshoring at the same time, and it's going to transform every industry. The question isn't so much as which industry will autonomous robots, including humanoids impact? It's what will it not.And we have not yet been able to find anything that it would. When you think about cost to use – we think by 2040 we get to a point where to Chris's point, the marginal cost of work will be some factor of electricity, energy, and some depreciation of that physical plant, or the physical robot itself. And we come up with a, a range of scenarios where centered on around $5 per hour. If that can replace two human workers at $25 an hour, that can NPV to around $200,000 of NPV per humanoid. That's discounting back 15 years from 2040.Michelle, there's 160 million people in the U.S. labor market, so if you just substituted 1 percent of that or 1.6 million people out of the U.S. Labor pool. 1.6 million times $200,000 NPV; that's $320 billion of value, which is worth, well, quite a lot. Quite a lot of money to a lot of companies that are working on this. So, when we get asked, what are we watching, well, in terms of the bleeding edge of the robot revolution, we're watching the Sino-U.S. competition. And I prefer to call it competition. And we're also watching the terra cap companies, the Mag 7 type companies that are quite suddenly and recently and very, very significantly going after physical AI and robotics talent. And increasingly even manufacturing talent. So again, to circle back to Chris's point, if you want evidence of reshoring and manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in this country, look at some of these TMT and tech and AI companies in California. And look at, go on their hiring website and watch all the manufacturing and robotics people that they're trying to hire; and pay a lot of money to do so. And that might be an interesting indicator of where we're going.Michelle Weaver: I want to dig in a little bit more there. We're seeing a lot of the cutting-edge tech coming out of China. Is the U.S. going to be able to catch up?Adam Jonas: Uh, I don't know. I don't know. But I would say what's our alternative. We either catch up enough to compete or we're up for grabs. OK?I would say from our reading and working closely with our team in China, that in many aspects of supply chain, manufacturing, physical AI, China is ahead. And with the passage of time, they are increasingly ahead. We estimate, and we can't be precise here, that China's lead on the U.S. would not only last three to five years, but might even widen three to five years from now. May even widen at an accelerating rate three to five years from now.And so, it brings into play is what kind of environment and what kind of regulatory, and policy decisions we made to help kind of level the playing field and encourage the right kind of manufacturing. We don't want to encourage trailing edge, Victorian era manufacturing in the U.S. We want to encourage, you know, to skate to where the puck is going technology that can help improve our world and create a sustainable abundance rather than an unsustainable one. And so, we're watching China very, very closely. It makes us a little bit; makes me a little bit kind of nervous when we – if we see the government put the thumb on the scale too much.But it's invariably going to happen. You're going to have increased involvement of whichever administration it is in order to kind of set policies that can encourage innovation, education of our young people, repurposing of labor, you know. All these people making machines in this country now. They might get, there may be a displacement over a number of years, if not a generation.But we need those human bodies to do other things in this economy as well. So, we; I don't want to give the impression at all in our scenarios that we don't need people anymore. Michelle Weaver: What are the opportunities and the risks that you see for investors as robotics converges with this broader U.S. manufacturing story? Adam Jonas: Well, Michelle, we see both opportunities and risks. There are the opportunities that you can measure in terms of what portion of global GDP of [$]115 trillion could you look at. I mean, labor alone is $40 trillion.And if you really make humanoid that can do the work of two workers, guess what? You're not going to stop at [$]40 trillion. You're going to go beyond that. You might go multiple beyond that. Talking about the world before AI, robotics and humanoid is like talking about the world before electricity. Or talking about business before the internet. We don't think we're exaggerating, but the proof will be in the capital formation. And that's where we hope we can be of assistance to our clients working together on a variety of investment ideas. But the risks will come and it is our professional responsibility, if not our moral responsibility, to work with our partners across research to talk about those risks. Michelle, if we have labor displacement, go too quickly, there's serious problems. And if you don't, if you don't believe me, go look at, look at you know, the French Revolution or the Industrial Revolution, or Age of Enlightenments. Ages of scientific enlightenment frequently cohabitate times of great social and political turmoil as well. And so, we think that these risks must be seen in parallel if we want to bring forth technologies that can make us more human rather than less human. I'm sorry if I'm coming across as a little preachy, but if you studied robots and labor all day long, it does have that effect on you. So, Michelle, how do you see innovation priorities changing for industrials and investors in this environment?Michelle Weaver: I think it's huge as we're seeing AI and technology broadly diffuse across different segments of the market, it's only becoming more important. About two-thirds of companies at the conference mentioned AI in some way, shape, or form. We know that from transcripts. And we're seeing them continue to integrate AI into their businesses. They're trying to go beyond what we've just seen at the initial edge. So, for example, if I think about what was going on within AI adoption a couple years ago, it was largely adding a chat bot to your website that's then able to handle a lot of customer service inquiries. Maybe you could reduce the labor there a little bit. Now we're starting to see a lot more business specific use cases. So, for example, with an airline, an airline company is using AI to most optimally gate different planes as they're landing to try and reduce connection times. They know which staff needs to go to another flight to connect, which passengers need to move to another flight. They're able to do that much more efficiently. You're seeing a lot on AI being adopted within manufacturing to make manufacturing processes a lot more seamless. So, I think innovation is only going to continue to become more important to not only industrials, but broadly the entire market as well.Clearly the industry is being shaped by adaptability, collaboration, and a focus on innovation. So, Chris, Adam, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Adam Jonas: Always a pleasure. Michelle.Christopher Snyder: Thank you for having us on. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Global. That August factory PMI showed manufacturing output returned to growth in August. Total new business expanded at quickest pace since March. But it also reported the fastest rise in average input prices in nine months. As has become the norm in 2025, this private PMI series is more bullish than the official PMI.While we are noting improved factory PMIs in Australia and China, we should also note that they improved in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia as well. The Trump tariff-taxes aren't killing these countries. In fact, because it is the American importers who are paying these taxes (and ultimately the American consumer), the whole tariff journey just shows the American's are prepared to pay a lot more for what they import, and demand isn't flagging. Yet, anyway.Of special note is the regaining of momentum in India where their factory PMI turned notably higher on new orders and new-found momentum. This is now their fastest improvement in operating conditions in seventeen and a half years, with production growth accelerating to a nearly five-year high, supported by strong demand and better alignment of supply with orders. New orders rose at the fastest pace in nearly five years, and given they have been strong in the lead-up, this is really saying something.Even European factories are on the move up, returning to expansion with the sharpest rise in factory output since March 2022. Their factory PMI is now at its highest in 41 months.Australia's factory sector expansion accelerated again in August. Higher new order levels, supported by a rise in exports, led to a solid rise in production. Confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022. The survey showed that manufacturers hired more staff and raised their purchasing and inventory levels. Meanwhile price pressures remained little problem.And staying in Australia, their residential building consents fell -8.2% in July from June, almost double the market expectations of a -4.8% fall. This sharply ate into the upwardly revised +12.2% increase in June. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for dwellings that weren't houses (apartments and townhouses). By state, approvals fell sharpest in New South Wales (-25%), while rising in Tasmania (+12%), Western Australia (+12%), in Queensland (+5.9%).Lower new homebuilding is juicing up their existing-home real estate markets. Cotality reported strong August gains from July, up +0.7% for the month nationally. It's back as a strong sellers market. The rises in Brisbane and Perth are notable, but the gains in Adelaide and Sydney were not far behind them in August. The consequences for affordability for most aspiring buyers look awful.We should probably also note that the forecast for Australia's wheat crop was raised sharply in an overnight update. Good rains recently is behind the revision.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +62 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels. The price of gold will start today at US$3,477/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver topped US$40/oz for the first time since 2011, also near a record high.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$64.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps as well at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,918 and little-changed (down -0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

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O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Raphael Félix, CFP®, CNPI, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Nos EUA, a demissão da diretora do Fed por Donald Trump elevou a incerteza política, enquanto o PIB do segundo trimestre surpreendeu positivamente. Na Europa, medidas para reduzir tarifas com os EUA deram algum fôlego aos mercados, e na China, o governo sinalizou estímulos para sustentar o crescimento. No Brasil, a inflação recuou, mas os indicadores de atividade mostraram fraqueza. Para os próximos dias, os destaques são o Payroll nos EUA e a produção industrial no Brasil. Nos EUA, os PMIs vieram fortes e Powell sinalizou possível corte de juros, apesar de alertar para riscos inflacionários. O dólar caiu e o S&P 500 fechou em alta. No Brasil, a curva de juros abriu nos prazos médios e longos, refletindo incertezas locais. O Ibovespa subiu, apoiado pelo cenário externo. Para os próximos dias, destaque para o IPCA-15, IGP-M e dados do Caged no Brasil, além do PCE e PIB nos EUA." Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump's global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.Then, over the weekend we got the official Chinese PMIs for August and they extended the sluggish environment their manufacturing sector finds itself in. Despite the 90 'extension' before punitive tariffs kick in with the US, orders contracted for a fifth consecutive month. On the services side however, they maintained their small expansion in August, albeit marginally better.But early data suggests their housing slump is not ending, maybe even getting worse. Sale volumes in August are likely to be more than -17% lower than a year ago.Although it is a shortened week in the US, it ends with the August jobs data. Markets expect another weak result (just +78,000). You will recall the weak data last month saw Trump fire the agency head who compiled it. So there will be special attention this time on its believability under the BLS agency's deputy. Before that we will get lead-up jobs data, the ISM PMIs for the US.Canada will also release labour market data. The EU inflation data, and others will release GDP data for Q2-2025, including from Australia on Wednesday.At the end of last week, July data out in the US shows that disposable personal income was up +2.0% from a year ago, personal consumption expenditure was up +2.1% on the same basis. On a month-on-month basis, the income was up +0.4% and expenditure up +0.5%. These elements are not major but they do indicate a tightening in household financial budgets.Nested deep within this release was that core PCE index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, its largest rise since February and above the Fed's target and comfort zone. Tariff costs are getting the blame. Financial markets noticed.And that is the same sort of tightening indicated by the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey. Its final August version fell back markedly from its initial readings, a clear indication households are finding it tougher. It is now -14% lower than a year ago. The Biden boom is now just a memory.On the factory floor, the latest indicators are shifting down too. The August Chicago PMI headed south quite sharply to be -10% below year-ago levels.And the US seems to be losing the tariff war it started - and Americans are paying the tariff-taxes. The latest trade data for July shows that the US merchandise trade deficit jumped to -US$104 billion in the month, exactly the same as July a year ago, and far above expectations of -US$90 bln deficit. It is their largest in four months. Imports jumped +7.1% from a month earlier, led by industrial supplies, capital goods, food, and consumer goods. Meanwhile, exports slipped -0.1%.Certainly, American farmers are not happy. And they have a President who probably doesn't even know where Pakistan is, let alone most other simple facts.In Canada, they got a sharp dose of shock in their Q2-2025 GDP result from the sharp turn on them from their southern neighbour. Their GDP fell -0.4% in the quarter and cancelling out the +0.5% gain in their first quarter. Year-on-year their GDP is still up +0.9% however.Across the Pacific the economic data is generally much more positive. South Korea's retail sales surged +2.5% in July from June, a big jump from a revised +0.7% increase in June and marking the fastest growth in over two years. From a year ago it is up +2.4% and that too is the most since January 2022.South Korean industrial production grew solidly in July as well, up +5.0% from a year ago.After a good gain in June, Japan's industrial production fell -1.6% in July, reversing a +2.1% June gain and much more than the -1.0% decline anticipated.Japanese retail sales only rose by +0.3% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +1.9% gain in June and falling well short of market expectations for a +1.8% increase.But Japanese consumer confidence actually rose in August to its best level of the year with gains across all surveyed questions.We should also note that protests in Jakarta on Friday that turned deadly have put Indonesia on edge. They have spread over the weekend. Canberra will be watching nervously.In Europe, the ECB's survey found that consumer inflation expectations were stable ("well anchored") in July at 2.6% for the year ahead.Globally, air passenger demand was up +4.0% in July, driven by the Asia/Pacific +5.7% rise and held back by the North American +1.9% rise. Most of this is due to international travel. Meanwhile, air cargo traffic was even stronger in July, up +5.5% from a year ago, up +6.0% for international trade. Asia/Pacific was the strongest region here too, up +11.0% for international cargoes. But North American international cargo volumes only rose +1.5%, the weakest global region.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, unchanged from Saturday, but down -3 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,447/oz, up another +US$5 from Saturday, and close to a new record high, but basically a measure of the USD markdown. A week ago it was at US$3,371/oz so a net +US$76 gainAmerican oil prices are again little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged as well at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.5, and unchanged from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,022 and up +0.5% from this time Saturday. But is down -6.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Allan Fukumoto, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento:"Nos EUA, os PMIs vieram fortes e Powell sinalizou possível corte de juros, apesar de alertar para riscos inflacionários. O dólar caiu e o S&P 500 fechou em alta. No Brasil, a curva de juros abriu nos prazos médios e longos, refletindo incertezas locais. O Ibovespa subiu, apoiado pelo cenário externo. Para os próximos dias, destaque para o IPCA-15, IGP-M e dados do Caged no Brasil, além do PCE e PIB nos EUA."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights.Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

US equity futures are slightly softer. Asia ended mixed, and European markets are lower. Markets remain focused on Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, with September rate cut odds falling below 80% after hawkish Fedspeak and stronger US flash PMIs. July FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, though the impact was muted by subsequent labor data; US flash PMIs showed the strongest manufacturing and services readings in over a year, but input prices rose sharply, adding stagflation concerns alongside the weaker Philadelphia Fed survey; Markets continue to track AI-driven equity pullbacks and tariff headlines, with investors bracing for possible US chip tariff announcements.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Boeing, Tesla

Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders' Summit in October, "dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit"; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by ReutersEuropean bourses move higher; US equity futures also gain as the RTY +0.4% outperforms; NVIDIA -1% after H20 production halt.DXY holds an upward bias post-PMIs on Thursday, whilst fixed income trades steady into Fed Chair Powell.Choppy trade in the crude complex, as traders digest halts to the Druzhba pipeline; sideways trade across precious metals.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21st-23rd); Speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Hammack and Collins.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea han dado los siguientes pasos para formalizar su pacto comercial, detallando planes que podrían reducir los aranceles sobre los automóviles europeos en cuestión de semanas, a la vez que abren la puerta a nuevos descuentos potenciales para el acero y el aluminio. Los futuros de Wall Street apuntan a nuevos descensos después de una racha de ventas en las grandes tecnológicas. Los inversores se mantienen cautelosos antes de la reunión de la Reserva Federal en Jackson Hole. Las actas de la Fed muestran que la mayoría de los miembros del banco central estadounidense destacan que los riesgos inflacionistas superan las preocupaciones sobre el mercado laboral. La dirección de los mercados hoy también podría estar determinada por los PMIs, los datos de ventas de viviendas y los resultados de Walmart. El gigante de la distribución mejora sus previsiones pero alerta del aumento de los costes por los aranceles. La compañía ha comenzado a incrementar precios en algunos productos. En Europa, se impone también la cautela y la recogida de beneficios, a pesar de un buen dato de PMIs. Primer análisis de jornada en 'Cierre de Mercados' con Luis Benguerel, gestor independiente.

APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.FOMC Minutes from the July meeting noted a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation was the greater risk compared with the labour market, although the meeting was conducted prior to the release of the latest NFP report with hefty downward revisions.Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs, UK PSNB, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EZ Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fed's Bostic, Supply from France & US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European bourses tilt lower with the region unable to benefit from better-than-feared PMIs; US equity futures are mixed.USD is mixed vs. peers, GBP is top of the G10 leaderboard post-PMI.Bonds are pressured after PMIs, lower UK borrowing fails to lift spirits ahead of the Autumn BudgetCrude is firmer as geopolitics remain in the limelight; Ukraine's Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EU Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fedʼs Bostic, Schmid, Goolsbee, Supply from US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Dados de PMIs, vendas de imóveis, balanço do Walmart e fala de Bostic também no radar.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial world is waiting for Fed boss Powell's Jackson Hole scene setting speech.In the meantime, US initial jobless claims held steady last week from the prior week at +195,000. But in fact seasonal factors should have produced a good fall. So seasonally adjusted, they are reporting an unexpected rise. The number of people on these benefits held at 1.97 mln when they usually retreat at this time of year. Analysts are flagging concerns about the lack of progress. A year ago they fell to 1.86 mln, so they are +110,000 higher now than then.US existing home sales rose, and by more than expected in July and only the second month-on-month gain of 2025. They ran at the rate of 4 mln per year, the best level since February. However, the stock of unsold homes swelled (to 19 weeks of supply), and the latest sales came with the average selling price dropping, now at US$422,400.More generally, around their overnight earnings release, the Walmart CEO noted that tariff-tax price pressure is driving up prices on a weekly basis now. However, they reckon they will get a net benefit as shoppers turn to them from others forced into even higher increases.And the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell in July, extending its 2025 retreat and at a faster pace in the past six months than the prior six months. Keeping the pressure on this index are the retreats in new orders, and weak consumer sentiment.The Philly Fed's factory survey certainly shows the new order problem which turned negative in August. And firms report that inflation is embedding at higher levels for their input costs. There is a sense that this heartland manufacturing region is starting to go backwards again. Those in this survey 'expect growth' in the future, but they have been signaling that for all of 2025 and if that aspect turns, things will possibly feel a bit grim there.But the early August S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US are not downbeat. On the factory side, they report a good recovery from July. On the services side a slip from a still-expanding base. They also report faster input inflation as they paid the tariff-taxes.The Canadians also reported rising input costs in their PPI release overnight.Japanese business is on the rise. Business activity across Japan's private sector expanded at the fastest rate since February midway through the third quarter, according to the August PMI survey data. The upturn was supported by a fresh increase in factory production alongside a further solid rise in activity at service providers. Total new business also expanded at the quickest rate in six months, though this was driven solely by the service sector. New export business fell at a steeper rate, however.In China, it is becoming clearer that officials are increasingly worried about strained finances at central and local government agencies, and that both firms and employees are suffering from delayed payments. Apparently, the pressures are severe, warranting President's Xi's attention. Special bond issues are underway to juice up the necessary funding.In Europe, the flash PMI reports indicate an improving situation for both manufacturers, and in the service sector. New orders increased for first time in 15 months in August. The factory PMI rose to expansion and its best in more than three years. Its services sector expanded faster, although like everything in Europe the benchmarks are not high compared to the rest of the world.Overall EU consumer sentiment held at modest levels in August, although to be direct, they are still substantially negative and remain lower than their long-run average.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit August PMIs are quite upbeat. They said Australia's business activity growth accelerated midway through the third quarter, with faster expansions across both the manufacturing and service sectors. This was supported by higher new work inflows, including a renewed expansion in exports. In turn, Australian private sector firms raised their staffing levels at a faster rate to cope with additional workloads. Business sentiment also improved slightly from July.Australian consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.9% in August from 4.7% in July, easing for the second straight month and marking the lowest level since March.And energy regulator AEMO says more wind, solar and storage capacity was added over the past year to the electricity grid in Queensland, NSW and Victoria than in any year before. The risk of blackouts and service disruptions is fading, they say.Globally, container shipping freight rates fell -4% last week from the prior week to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although year-ago there was extensive stress from tensions in the Red Sea. All the weakness currently is in outbound cargoes from China. Bulk cargo freight rates fell -5% over the past week, but they are still +10% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1 to just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.2, and up +10 bps helped by a gain against the yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea han dado los siguientes pasos para formalizar su pacto comercial, detallando planes que podrían reducir los aranceles sobre los automóviles europeos en cuestión de semanas, a la vez que abren la puerta a nuevos descuentos potenciales para el acero y el aluminio. Los futuros de Wall Street apuntan a nuevos descensos después de una racha de ventas en las grandes tecnológicas. Los inversores se mantienen cautelosos antes de la reunión de la Reserva Federal en Jackson Hole. Las actas de la Fed muestran que la mayoría de los miembros del banco central estadounidense destacan que los riesgos inflacionistas superan las preocupaciones sobre el mercado laboral. La dirección de los mercados hoy también podría estar determinada por los PMIs, los datos de ventas de viviendas y los resultados de Walmart. El gigante de la distribución mejora sus previsiones pero alerta del aumento de los costes por los aranceles. La compañía ha comenzado a incrementar precios en algunos productos. En Europa, se impone también la cautela y la recogida de beneficios, a pesar de un buen dato de PMIs. Primer análisis de jornada en 'Cierre de Mercados' con Luis Benguerel, gestor independiente.

Dados de PMIs, vendas de imóveis, balanço do Walmart e fala de Bostic também no radar.

A estrategista-chefe de investimentos do BB Private, Julia Baulé, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento:"Nos Estados Unidos, os dados de inflação ao consumidor (CPI) vieram abaixo das expectativas, enquanto o índice de preços ao produtor (PPI) surpreendeu com alta de 0,9%, elevando a inflação anual para 3,3% e reduzindo as apostas em cortes agressivos de juros pelo Fed. As vendas no varejo e a atividade industrial mostraram resiliência, reforçando a leitura de uma economia ainda aquecida. No Brasil, o governo lançou o plano Brasil Soberano em resposta às tarifas impostas pelos EUA, enquanto o setor de serviços cresceu 0,3% e o Ibovespa teve desempenho misto. O IPCA de julho veio abaixo das projeções, reforçando a expectativa de cortes na Selic ainda em 2025. Para os próximos dias, destaque para a ata do FOMC e os PMIs nos EUA, além da divulgação do IGP-M e IBC-BR no Brasil."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Inflation is rising, but the Fed's next moves hinge more on the labor market than the latest price prints. Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market, joins us to discuss: Inflation check: CPI roughly in line but trending higher; PPI surprised to the upside. Mark notes this likely points to a firmer core PCE later this month - but the question is persistence, not just direction. Fed priorities: Despite hotter inflation data, Powell has linked policy to labor-market balance (unemployment rate over payroll headlines). Markets overshot on cut odds after weak jobs data; expectations have since drifted back toward the Fed's guidance. Cuts & QT: Baseline view is ~50 bps of easing this year, with potential messaging around slowing/ending QT as part of reducing overall restrictiveness. Markets vs. data: Equities keep shrugging off noise (tariffs/geopolitics). Retail sales resilience underscores still-solid demand, tempering the case for aggressive cuts. U.S. dollar: The downtrend has resumed after a brief short-covering rally. For a big-picture read, watch U.S. rates more than cross-country differentials. Near-term catalysts: Expect a quieter macro week - flash PMIs and Jackson Hole (labor focus) ahead; the next jobs report is the true potential game-changer for September policy odds. Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers: US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.Fed rate cut bets surge -  Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.Trump escalates tariffs -  New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.Global slowdown signals -  Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China's PPI deflation deepens.Equity concentration risk -  S&P 500's top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump's Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.Stock spotlights - Palantir's sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals. Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.

US President Trump said they will have straight, simple tariffs of between 15% and 50% on countries, while he added the US is in serious talks with the EU and if they agree to open up to US businesses, US will let them pay lower tariffs.European bourses continue to gain, albeit are off best levels; US futures mixed, GOOGL +3%, TSLA -6% in pre-market trade.GBP lags on soft PMIs, EUR eyes ECB and potential EU-US breakthrough.EGBs hit by trade updates, Gilts off lows post-PMIs, USTs await data.Crude rises on trade optimism and geopolitics, gold unwinds risk premium.Looking ahead, Global PMIs, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway & ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US.Earnings from LVMH, Carrefour, Michelin, Intel, American Airlines, Blackstone, Dow Chemical, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Honeywell & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Luciana Taft, analista de AFI, analiza con lupa la deuda acumulada de Reino Unido, el banco de Inglaterra, la FED, la reunión de tipos del BCE y las lecturas preliminares de los PMIs de julio

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market website, joins us for this special Sunday editorial on the KE Report. Key topics discussed: Inflation Data: A closer look at why headline inflation remains above the 2% target and why base effects suggest future readings may edge higher. Fed Policy Outlook: Despite political noise, the Fed remains patient. Marc explains why some members (like Waller) are pushing for earlier cuts and how labor market weakness - not just inflation - may drive the next move. Market Reaction: Are potential Fed cuts already priced in? Why retail buying and FOMO are fueling equity highs, and what that means for risk ahead. Tariffs & Earnings: How shifting tariffs could pressure margins, stoke inflation, and impact upcoming earnings season. Global Events: What to watch this week: flash PMIs, the ECB meeting, Tokyo CPI - and why Japan's political backdrop is worth noting.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.

Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TFMetalsReport.com, joins us for a timely macro and metals discussion on this shortened holiday trading week. With Canadian and U.S. markets seeing light volume due to national holidays, Craig outlines why this week could still bring significant volatility driven by data releases and algorithmic trading.   Key Themes Discussed: Gold's Sideways Action: Craig explains why gold's recent price consolidation mirrors the late 2023 breakout setup and how many investors may be misreading this quiet strength. Silver's Quiet Strength: Silver has posted a strong quarterly close and may soon generate its own upside momentum, similar to the sharp moves seen in 2011. Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy: Despite a lack of immediate Fed rate cuts, the U.S. dollar is falling - Craig explains how markets may be front-running a policy shift under a possible Trump-nominated Fed chair. Commodity Supertrend?: From copper and platinum to silver and aluminum, industrial metals are rallying on physical supply constraints and broader reflation themes. Data-Driven Volatility Ahead: With the JOLTS report, manufacturing and services PMIs, and a U.S. jobs report all dropping this week, Craig warns these releases could trigger fast, algo-driven moves in the metals.

EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says he had constructive talks with USTR Greer; are advancing in the correct direction at "pace".US President Trump's order to increase steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% has taken effect, aside from the UK. The UK is still subject to 25% tariffs on steel, with the UK failing to get the 0% tariffs promised in the US ‘deal' implemented in time.European bourses climb higher and currently at session highs; US futures are modestly higher with some outperformance in the RTY.USD is incrementally lower/flat, whilst Antipodeans lead the G10 list.Bonds are weighed on by upward revisions to PMIs, Gilts lag after US metal measures.Crude tilts higher with US-Iran negotiations seemingly at a stalemate.Looking ahead, US Composite/Services PMI Final, US ADP National Employment, US ISM Services, BoC & NBP Policy Announcements, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including Fed's Bostic, Cook & US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Earnings from PVH & Dollar Tree.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will double US steel and aluminium tariffs from 25% to 50%, effective June 4th.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is holding back products essential to the industrial supply chain and he believes President Trump will talk to Chinese President Xi very soon, according to a CBS interview.OPEC+ members that voluntarily restricted output agreed to a 411k BPD oil production increase in July, as expected, which could be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.Chinese Official PMI data over the weekend was mixed, with manufacturing improving as expected but non-manufacturing surprisingly easing, albeit slightly.Meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegates in Istanbul is expected to take place at 11:00BST/06:00EDT in Ciragan Palace on Monday, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.APAC stocks were mostly in the red, European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, Canadian & US Manufacturing PMI Finals, Swiss GDP, ISM Manufacturing, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan, Goolsbee & Powell, Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P Futures are weakening this morning in a reaction to Moody's lowering its credit rating on the U.S after markets closed on Friday. The downgrade was not unexpected as Fitch and S&P have already lowered their ratings. President Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill advanced through the House Budget Committee on Sunday night, overcoming a major hurdle after days of internal Republican disputes. Also, President Trump is scheduled to hold a call today with Russian President Putin today at 10:00 am to discuss a path forward to end hostilities with Ukraine. The key economic event in the week ahead will be the release of S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, along with data on existing and new home sales. Upcoming earnings reports from Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will be closely watched for how these major retailers are adapting to the evolving tariff landscape and broader economic headwinds.

The world's leading economies are seeing a deceleration in manufacturing activity, although they remain in expansive territory. In the US, earnings are being revised down, largely in response to the fall in GDP growth that this implies. Meanwhile the Fed is keeping rates steady in the face of an uncertain inflation outlook, but China is cutting rates to stimulate its economy. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, analyses high frequency data of economic activity across the world. Investec Focus Radio SA

In this episode, we're joined by Chelsea Burkett, Deputy Program Director with AECOM[00:01:13] Meet Chelsea BurkettChelsea introduces her role with Aecom and the scope of Austin ISD's massive bond program.[00:02:29] GMP 101A foundational look at GMP pricing and how it supports collaborative delivery models.[00:03:37] Early GC InvolvementWhy selecting general contractors early creates synergy and reduces surprises.[00:05:23] Community-Driven Design = Scope Creep?How community input shapes schools—and complicates budgets.[00:06:38] What's in a GMP?Chelsea walks through what the contract amendment includes and how it's executed.[00:08:49] Staying in BudgetThe bond book, voter expectations, and how cost alignment is maintained.[00:11:13] Supply Chain ChaosMaterial pricing, long lead times, and how GCs manage risk today.[00:15:24] The Open Book AdvantageFull transparency into sub bids, contingencies, and value engineering.[00:17:02] The Grading GameHow GCs and subs are evaluated—points, interviews, and all.[00:20:28] Risk, Clarifications & AllowancesUnpacking who owns what risk in complex multi-GMP projects.[00:24:07] Liquidated Damages & DeadlinesWhy hitting school opening day is non-negotiable—and risky.[00:30:12] The Art of NegotiationNavigating owner–GC–architect dynamics for long-term project health.[00:34:08] Tariffs & Steel ShockwavesThe ripple effects of global politics on your jobsite.[00:36:09] Fee StrategyHow GCs compete on cost and credentials—and when they ask for more.[00:37:03] Chelsea's Pain PointsWhy early communication is everything in GMP negotiations.[00:41:19] Use the PMIS!Advice to subs: use project management systems to get seen and heard.[00:43:14] People MatterHow staffing and turnover shape success across multiple projects.[00:46:00] Smart Strategy ≠ Low BidThe delicate dance of rewarding excellence while staying fair.[00:48:35] Megaphone MomentChelsea's call to the industry: prioritize relationships over ego.Go build something awesome!CHECK OUT THE PARTNERS THAT MAKE OUR SHOW POSSIBLE: https://www.brospodcast.com/partnersFIND US ONLINE: -Our website: https://www.brospodcast.com -LinkedIn:   / constructionbrospodcast   -Instagram:   / constructionbrospodcast    -TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@constructionbrothers?lang=en-Eddie on LinkedIn:   / eddie-c-057b3b11   -Tyler on LinkedIn:   / tylerscottcampbell  If you enjoy the podcast, please rate us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to us! Thanks for listening!

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreSPG PMI press releasehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU