Podcasts about pmis

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Latest podcast episodes about pmis

Monday Morning Minutes
MMM Episode 99: Jeff and Sam Parse Fedspeak and Food Prices

Monday Morning Minutes

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2023 39:03


Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau review stocks (2:39), fixed income (5:09), commodities (7:14), macro news (8:54) and Fedspeak (11:42) for the week ended Jan. 20, 2023. Then for their Topic of the Week (16:15), they explore the measurement of food prices, including significant divergences between international and U.S. metrics measuring the cost of food. In their preview of economic data prints for the week of Jan. 23-27 (32:38), Jeff and Sam say they will be watching for the Leading Economic Index on Monday; the S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, Tuesday; fourth quarter U.S. GDP, Thursday; and especially the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation gauge, the PCE Core Deflator, Friday.

Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – Will European Growth Bounce Back?

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 20, 2023 24:11


In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US it's PCE inflation, PMIs and GDP before the upcoming February FOMC meeting. In Europe it's all about whether growth bounces back in IFOs and PMIs as well Labour strikes. The macro notes of the week have AUD CPI in focus, the latest from Asia and global markets is all to discuss.

Thoughts on the Market
Martijn Rats: The 2023 Global Oil Outlook

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 9, 2023 4:23


With an eventful year for the oil market behind us, what are the factors that might influence the supply, demand, and ultimately the pricing of oil and gas in 2023?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's Global Commodity Strategist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll discuss some of the key uncertainties that the global oil market will likely face in 2023. It's Monday, January 9th at 3 p.m. in London. Looking back, 2022 was an eventful year for the oil market. The post-COVID demand recovery of 2021 continued during the first half and by June demand was back to 2019 levels. For a brief period the demand recovery appeared complete. Over the same period non-OPEC supply growth mostly disappointed, OPEC's spare capacity declined and inventories drew. Which eventually meant that oil markets had to start searching for the price level where demand destruction kicked in. Eventually, this forced prices of key oil products such as gasoline and diesel, to record levels of around $180-$290 a barrel in June. Clearly, those prices did the trick. Together with new mobility restrictions in China, aggressive rate hikes by central banks and rising risk of recession, particularly in Europe, they effectively stalled the oil demand recovery. And by September, global oil demand was once again below September 2019 levels. By late 2022, brent prices that retraced much of their earlier gains and other indicators, such as time spreads and refining margins, had softened too. Now, looking into 2023 we don't see this changing soon. Counting barrels of supply and demand suggest that the first quarter will still be modestly oversupplied. Also, declining GDP expectations, falling PMIs and central bank tightening are still weighing heavily on the oil market today. Eventually, however, we see a more constructive outlook emerging, say from the spring onwards. First, we expect to see a recovery in aviation. Global jet fuel consumption is still well below 2019 levels, and we think that a substantial share of that demand will return this year. Another key development will be China's reopening. At the end of 2022 China's oil demand was still well below 2020 and 2021 levels, held back by lockdowns and mobility restrictions. We expect China's oil demand to start recovering after the first quarter of this year. Shifting over to Europe and the EU embargo on Russian oil, as of last November, the EU still imported 2.2 million barrels a day of Russian crude oil and oil products. Now, especially after the EU's embargo on the import of oil product kicks in, which will be on February 5th, Russia will need to find other buyers and the EU will need to find other suppliers for much of this oil. Now, some of this has already been happening, but the full rearrangement of oil flows around the world as a result of this issue will probably not be full, smooth, fast and without price impact. As a result, we expect that some Russian oil will be lost in the process and Russian oil production is likely to decline in coming months. In the U.S., capital discipline and supply chain bottlenecks have already held back the growth in U.S. shale production. However, well performance and drilling inventory depth are emerging additional concerns putting further downward pressure on the production outlook. Eventually, the slowdown in U.S. shale will put OPEC in the driver's seat of the oil market. Also last year saw an unprecedented release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. But this source of supply is now ended and the U.S. Energy Department will likely start buying back some of this oil in coming months. Finally, investment in new oil and gas production is rebounding, but it comes from a very low base and the recovery has so far been modest. Much of it is simply to absorb cost inflation that has also happened in the industry. In other words, the industry isn't investing heavily in new oil production, which has implications for the longer term outlook for oil supply. Eventually, we think these factors will combine in a set of tailwinds for oil prices. If we are wrong on those, the market would be left with the status quo, which would be neutral. But we believe that these risks will eventually skew positively later in 2023. We expect the oil market to return to balance in the second quarter, and be undersupplied in the second half of this year. With a limited supply buffer only, we think brent will return to over $100 a barrel by the middle of the year. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Bonds and equities climb following dovish French CPI, key US data/minutes ahead

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2023 2:39


European bourses have extended on Tuesday's upside, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.6%, with soft inflation data out of France adding to the week's dovish impulses.Stateside, futures are supported though to a lesser extent than European peers, ES +0.4%, as the region awaits key data points and the ES remains sub-3900.DXY has retreated with AUD outperforming while EUR remains supported on PMIs and the USD despite dovish inflation data.Bonds boosted once again as French CPI misses consensus 'hot' on the heels of similarly soft German and Spanish metrics.Another downbeat session for the crude space, with WTI Feb'23 and Brent Mar'23 declined to lows just below the USD 75/bbl and USD 80/bbl handles respectively.Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, FOMC Minutes & Crude Private Inventories.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Economy Watch
2023 dismisses optimists

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2023 5:58


Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the holiday edition from Interest.co.nz, and our first for 2023.Today we lead with news that 2023 is starting with wobbles.China's pandemic stresses are growing and are the primary cause of the year starting with downbeat notes.But first up today, the first 2023 dairy auction was another retreat, down -2.75% from the prior event on December 21, which itself was down -3.8%. This time, 33,478 tonnes were sold, the most at one of these events in more than two years. Butter (-2.8%), cheese (-2.7% and SMP (-4.3%) were the hardest hit this time, probably a reflection of stuttering demand out of China's food service industry. WMP fell -1.4%. This time, the currency came to the rescue to some extent, limiting the overall decline to -1.6% in NZD.Dairy prices aren't the only commodity in retreat.Perhaps this is what we are going to have to expect in 2023. The head of the IMF said the new year is going to be “tougher than the year we leave behind. Why? Because the three big economies – the US, EU and China – are all slowing down simultaneously,” she said.She is not wrong.The internationally-benchmarked American manufacturing PMI reports are sharpish contraction in their factory sector, with operating conditions deteriorating at their fastest rate since May 2020. Output fell at a sharper rate amid faster drop in new orders. Inflationary pressures ease notably however and the US Fed will have picked up on that fact. Employment rose only fractionally.In China, their official PMI's were weaker than the weak ones anticipated. Their factories are contracting sharply now, but their service sector businesses are in very bad shape, especially their retail sector. It is nationwide and will have severe consequences on the global economy if it doesn't pick up soon with their new pandemic relaxations. From this data it is easy to see why our dairy auction sagged.Their unofficial private sector factory PMI however, didn't paint anywhere near as dismal picture as the official survey. In this one, factories are contracting at only a minor rate - and less than the US retreat.And the EU remains in contraction territory, even if inflation is easing slightly there.In Germany, their inflation rate is retreating, falling to to 8.6% in December from 10% in November and below market forecasts of 9.1%. It was the lowest rate since August, but we should also note that their government paid December natural gas bills for some households and businesses, which will have impacted these results. In December alone, inflation actually fell -0.8% from November.But not everywhere is in the doldrums. In India the picture is actually quite bright. Their factory PMIs report stronger December increases in factory orders and production. Output growth reached a 13-month high. They have their fastest rise in new orders since February 2021.generating job creation and boosting input purchasing.And the world's third largest economy, Japan, is managing to hang in there, even if their overall expansion is hard to see at the moment. Their factory sector may be contracting, but their service sector is still expanding.In Australia, their PMI slipped to be now barely expanding. Output and new orders fell in December. Buying activity and input inventories declined. Input cost and output price inflation rates dropped. This is a decline that has lasted nine months and doesn't look like it is about to end.At least the Australian factory sector is doing better than their housing sectors. For all of 2022, house prices slipped -5.3%, more in the main centers. Annual value falls were the most significant in Sydney (-12.1%) and Melbourne (-8.1%) where conditions peaked early in the year. But what is eye-catching about this data is that in December, national prices fell at a -13% annualised rate.The UST 10yr yield started today at 3.79%, and down -9 bps from the end of 2022. The price of gold will open today at US$1838/oz and up +US$17 from its ending 2022 trade.And oil prices start today down -US$1 from Saturday's levels at just under US$78/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just under US$83/bbl. European natural gas prices are now lower than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.The Kiwi dollar has started the year down a whole -1c at 62.5 USc from where we left it on New Year's Eve. Against the Australian dollar we fell another -½c to 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we are at 59.1 euro cents and a minor dip. The Japanese yen has appreciated sharply over the New Year break. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 70.6, down -80 bps from New Year's Eve.The bitcoin price is now at US$16,628 and barely changed from either this time yesterday or where we left it on New Year's Eve. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained low at just +/- 0.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we will do this again tomorrow.

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Firmer start to the new year continues, despite soft Chinese NBS PMIs

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 3, 2023 2:36


European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.4%, as the region's strong start to 2023 continues despite soft Chinese NBS PMIsStateside, futures are supported with the ES back above 3900 ahead of the week's risk events from Wednesday onwards.Dollar erases and reverses losses on positional, fundamental and technical grounds with EUR deflated by sub-consensus German state CPIsFixed income boosted by the German inflation metrics, with Gilts outperforming in catch-up tradeCrude benchmarks have come under modest pressure as the European morning progresses, having more than retracted a concerted bid that occurred around the European cash equity open.Looking ahead, highlights include National German CPI, US Final MFG PMI & Construction Spending.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Morning Call
02.01.2023 - Lula toma posse reforçando sinalizações econômicas da campanha

Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 2, 2023 3:54


O #MorningCall da #XPInvestimentos mostra os principais destaques do dia e os impactos para o mercado, antes do pregão.Confira os temas de hoje, 02/01/2023:Nos EUA, destaques para a publicação da ata da última reunião do Federal Reserve na quarta-feira, e para o relatório de emprego divulgado na sexta-feira. Também serão divulgados índices de gerentes de compras (PMIs) referentes a dezembro de países desenvolvidos, e a inflação ao consumidor e ao produtor na Zona do Euro. No Brasil, o foco serão os primeiros dias do novo governo e definições de política econômica. Na seara de dados econômicos, os destaques para a a produção industrial de novembro e a inflação medida pelo IGP-DI de dezembro.Acompanhe todos os conteúdos da XP em https://t2m.io/8cxPp6xParticipe do canal do Telegram para estar sempre atualizado: https://t.me/xp_investimentosConfira mais conteúdos também através do nosso Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/expertxp/

Economy Watch
All eyes on inflation's clues

Economy Watch

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 18, 2022 5:13


Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets are ending the year mired in uncertainty.So markets are looking for signals, especially about inflation's track. Ahead this week, there will be more indications from the November PCE measures in the US, along with sentiment indicators from the Conference Board, and separately from the University of Michigan survey. Both will give updated indications of inflation expectations.In the meantime, an economic slowdown is coming. The first of the December PMIs are now available, on a 'flash' basis, and the American factory sector is now at its lowest ebb in 31 months, and now contracting. Their giant services sector is actually shrinking at a faster pace. The demand retreat the Fed wants is here.And there are signs inflation is easing too.American petrol prices are falling noticeably now. From a year ago, this week's national average price is -3.8% lower. More importantly for consumers there it is -15% lower than just a month ago. Import activity at some key US west coast ports are down sharply. There were steep declines in November and they are extending into December too. The US import engine is stuttering and many economies across the Pacific will feel the impact in an outsized way.There were flash PMIs out for other countries too. In Japan, the Markit survey shows factory activity is now contracting at a similar rate to the US. But they still have an expanding services sector, and interestingly a faster expansion than in November. That may surprise a few analysts.In the EU, everything is still contracting however. Their factory sector is shrinking at a lesser rate however, and their services sector is shrinking at a lesser rate too. These 'improvements' weren't expected. Germany provided the moderation here, a turnaround from November when it was France, but France is weakening faster now.The German central bank sees a mild recession in 2023, and a moderate recovery after that. For them, it will be a soft landing, they say.In Australia, private sector activity slowed amid higher interest rates in December. The service sector is still contracting and the wind has gone right out of the expanding factory sector, and that expansion has disappeared now.In China, the week ahead will bring a central bank review of their loan prime rates.Meanwhile, Beijing policymakers suggested that anti-pandemic restrictions could be loosened further as the government seeks to stabilise flagging growth. At their Central Economic Work Conference officials said they will "optimise and adjust" pandemic control policies. But cities are grappling with the consequences of very fast spread now. The streets of key cities are eerily quiet and people stay home, either to self- quarantine, or avoid infection. New supply chain chaos is coming. Foreign investors see a very tough 2023 ahead in China, especially American investors.And that negative view is showing up in the Chinese government bond market. Foreign holdings of yuan-denominated bonds traded in China's interbank market declined further in November, marking the 10th consecutive month of outflows.In Japan in the coming week, their central bank will review its policy positions. Now that inflation seems to be building there, these reviews have more interest. Japan will also release updated inflation data this coming week.Locally, we will get November trade data (sure to be weak) and business confidence data for December, which may not be too flash either.The UST 10yr yield started today at 3.49%, and up +1 bp from this time Saturday and re-building after the recent big drop. The price of gold will open today at US$1793 and up +US$3 from Saturday.And oil prices start today little-changed from this time Saturday at just under US$75/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$79/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opened today at 63.8 USc and little-changed. A week ago it was at 64.1 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are holding up at 95.4 AUc. Against the euro we are at 60.3 euro cents and also folding firm. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 72.6 and back to week-ago levels.The bitcoin price is now at US$16,695 and down 0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just +/- 0.4%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow.

Direto ao Ponto
sexta-feira, 16/12/2022

Direto ao Ponto

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2022 4:22


STF adia conclusão do julgamento sobre RP9 para segunda-feira. Com isso, votação da PEC da Transição na Câmara será na terça-feira. Orçamento deverá ser votado no dia seguinte. Aloízio Mercadante participará de evento com Grupo Esfera na quarta-feira. Camilo Santana aceita convite para ficar à frente do MEC e e Márcio França pode ir para o Ministério dos Portos. Vendas no varejo do Reino Unido tem leitura abaixo do esperado. PMIs flash da Zona do Euro vem mais forte que antecipado, mas ainda abaixo do patamar de 50. Bundesbank indica recessão em 2023. Podcast Direto ao Ponto do Banco Modal com as principais notícias de Brasil e Internacional ao longo do overnight. Por Felipe Sichel, economista-chefe do Banco Modal.

Morning Call
12.12.22 - Semana importante para política monetária global

Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2022 3:49


O #MorningCall da #XPInvestimentos mostra os principais destaques do dia e os impactos para o mercado, antes do pregão. Confira os temas de hoje, 12/12/2022: A política monetária está no foco dos mercados globais esta semana. Três dos bancos centrais mais importantes do mundo – o Federal Reserve dos EUA, o Banco Central Europeu e o Banco da Inglaterra – realizarão reunião de política para decidir sobre as taxas de juros. É amplamente esperado altas de juros nos três casos. Na agenda de dados econômicos, teremos a inflação ao consumidor na Zona do Euro e nos EUA referente a novembro, produção industrial e vendas no varejo na China referentes a novembro, assim como a prévia de dezembro de índices de gerentes de compras (PMIs) de países desenvolvidos.No Brasil, a expectativa é que a PEC da Transição seja aprovada no Congresso. Na semana, serão divulgadas a ata da última reunião do Copom, dados da pesquisa mensal de serviços (PMS) de outubro e a proxy mensal do Banco Central para o PIB referente a outubro. Acesse o relatório "Onde Investir 2023": https://conteudos.xpi.com.br/conteudos-gerais/onde-investir-2023/Acompanhe todos os conteúdos da XP em https://t2m.io/8cxPp6xParticipe do canal do Telegram para estar sempre atualizado: https://t.me/xp_investimentosConfira mais conteúdos também através do nosso Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/expertxp/

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Monday, 12-Dec

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2022 5:12


US equities were higher in uneventful Monday afternoon trading, ending at session highs and reversing some of last week's declines that saw the S&P down over 3% for its biggest weekly pullback since September. This week marks the last big macro week of the year with a flurry of central bank meetings, including expected 50 bp rate hikes from the Fed, ECB and BOE. November CPI is the highlight of the US economic calendar on Tuesday, though Thursday also brings retail sales and Friday sees the December flash PMIs.

Novus Capital
NovusCast - 09 de Dezembro 2022

Novus Capital

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2022 12:27


Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠No cenário internacional, houve divulgação de alguns dados americanos: de atividade (ISM de serviços), que mostrou sustentação (em direção oposta ao PMI); e de inflação ao produtor (PPI), que veio acima do esperado, com bens e serviços subjacentes mais fortes, e destaque para a alta em alimentação. Além disso, o noticiário a respeito de reabertura e flexibilização de medidas de controle de Covid na China seguiu bastante intenso. ⁠ No Brasil, a PEC da transição foi aprovada nos 2 turnos no Senado, com uma faixa de gasto proposta de R$200 BI; e o Lula divulgou os primeiros ministros, com destaque para o Fernando Haddad para o ministério da Fazenda. Ainda, houve reunião do Copom, que manteve a taxa de juros inalterada e citou a preocupação fiscal; e divulgação do IPCA de novembro, que veio bem abaixo do esperado, com efeitos da Black Friday. ⁠ Nos EUA, depois de algum tempo, tivemos uma semana de aperto das condições financeiras: o juro de 10 anos abriu 10 bps, enquanto as bolsas tiveram queda (S&P500 -3,37% e Nasdaq -3,59%). Por aqui, o juro (jan/27) abriu 39 bps, a bolsa (Ibovespa) caiu 3,94% e o real desvalorizou 0,54%. O petróleo teve queda de 10,6%. ⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar, lá fora, a reunião dos bancos centrais americano (Fed), europeu (ECB) e inglês (BoE); a divulgação da inflação (CPI) e dados de atividade (PMIs) americanos; a Conferência Central de Trabalho Econômico da China; e, por aqui, o possível anúncio do ministro do Planejamento. ⁠ ⁠⁠Não deixe de acompanhar pra ficar por dentro do que rolou na semana e o que esperar da próxima!

Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – 09 December 2022

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 9, 2022 26:31


In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US it's CPI, retail sales, NFIB, PMIs and the Fed meeting. In Europe it's the big week of the year with the meetings of ECB, BOE, SNB and Norges as well as global PMIs and UK CPI. Then it's the latest in a wave of Russian attacks in Ukraine, the energy price cap on oil, the relaxing of China COVID-19 measures and the current state of global markets all to discuss.

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview
Financial Market Preview - Monday 5-Dec

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2022 4:41


US equity futures are indicating a lower open as of 05:00 ET. European equity markets are softer, following mostly higher levels in Asia. Risk appetite is getting a boost amid more signs of China easing its zero Covid policy. Attention in Europe is on the Russian oil price cap after the EU agreed to $60/bbl on Friday. Final services sector PMIs are the main data releases of note today.Companies Mentioned: Apple, Microsoft, Activision Blizzard, Horizon Therapeutics, Johnson & Johnson

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview
Financial Market Preview - Friday 2-Dec

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2022 3:55


US futures are indicating a slightly lower open as of 04:05 ET. European equity markets have mostly opened in the negative territory, following mixed to weaker levels in Asia. After more evidence of growth slowdown in yesterday's PMIs, today's US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show moderation in headline jobs growth and average hourly earnings, but no change to unemployment rate. Companies Mentioned: Walt Disney, Accenture, Citigroup

The Critical Point Podcast
Economy and Jobs as of Nov 2022- The Business Cycle

The Critical Point Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2022 11:00


PMIs slipped into contraction territory suggesting the economy is falling backward but GDP was at best of the year. What is going on? The Jobs report showed much better than anticipated growth. What is next for the US economy? Stock market and interest rate market impact? To subscribe: Critical Point Podcast $27.99 per month recurring. Billing begins two weeks from signup (a form of 2-week free trial). Cancel anytime. Primary focus on the US stock market and the major grains. Short-term to super-long-term forecasts from the business cycle model, including signals. Additional model-based opinion/signals include global stock market indexes, interest rates, dollar, bitcoin, gold, oil, the boom/bust cycle of the economy, and the cyclical climate events that can cause crop problems. For information, education, explanation see criticalpointpod.com. Email: rich@ag-financial.com @rich_posson

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: post-Powell dovish price action continues, US futures steady pre-data

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 1, 2022 3:15


European bourses have benefited from the post-Powell surge, US futures more contained pre-dataAdditional support derived in APAC hours from China's PMIs and COVID adjustmentsDXY remains downbeat given the dovish Powell reaction, JPY is the standout beneficiary given rate differentialsEGBs are bid with pricing for December's ECB tilting towards 50bp given the magnitude of overnight price action, Lane speaks laterCrude benchmarks are little changed overall but have been choppy throughout the morning with specific developments limitedLooking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMI, US ISM, IJC, PCE Price Index, Speeches from Fed's Barr, Bowman & Logan, ECB's Lane & EldersonClick here for the Week Ahead previewRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
Euro Market Open: Predominantly positive trade though Chinese PMIs capped gains

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 4:06


APAC stocks eventually traded mostly higher although gains were capped following the subdued handover from Wall St and disappointing Chinese PMI data.European equity futures were positive with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.5% after the cash market closed flat yesterday.DXY ran out of steam ahead of 107, EUR/USD and Cable reside on 1.03 and 1.19 handles respectively, NZD outperforms.OPEC+ is likely to keep output levels flat at the Sunday meeting, according to WSJ citing delegates.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss KOF, German Unemployment, EZ CPI (Flash), US GDP (2nd), PCE Prices Prelim., JOLTS, Speeches from Fed's Powell, Bowman, Cook & BoE's Pill, Supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Itaú Morning Call
30/11/22 | PMIs caem com piora do surto na China, enquanto governo abranda discurso sobre tolerância zero

Itaú Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2022 4:57


Novus Capital
NovusCast - 25 de Novembro 2022

Novus Capital

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 26, 2022 13:06


Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Yara Cordeiro debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠No cenário internacional, houve a divulgação da ata da última reunião do FOMC, que manteve as indicações de desaceleração do ritmo de alta de juros e de taxa terminal mais elevada, entretanto, pela primeira vez, citou o risco de recessão. Ainda por lá, foram divulgados dados de atividade (PMIs), que vieram bastante fracos; e dados semanais de pedidos de auxílio desemprego (Jobless Claims), que voltaram a subir. Por fim, na China, foram impostas novas restrições para conter a elevação dos casos de Covid, e foi anunciado corte na taxa de reserva bancária requerida (RRR). ⁠ No Brasil, as atenções seguem voltadas para a discussão e apresentação da PEC, que foi postergada para o início da próxima semana; e para a definição do próximo ministro da Fazenda. Um dos potenciais candidatos, Fernando Haddad, discursou em evento da FEBRABAN, trazendo indicações fiscais negativas. Foram também divulgados dados de confiança, que já mostram sinais de impacto das incertezas à frente; e o IPCA-15 de novembro, que veio em linha com o esperado, apesar da composição um pouco diferente. ⁠ Nos EUA, a semana foi mais curta e menos movimentada por conta do feriado de Ação de Graças: os juros de 5 e 10 anos fecharam 15 bps, e as bolsas tiveram leve alta (S&P500 + 1,53%; Nasdaq + 0,68%). Por aqui, apesar da elevada volatilidade, os ativos fecharam com pouca variação: o juro (jan/27) abriu 11 bps, o Ibovespa subiu 0,1% e o real desvalorizou 0,4%. ⁠ Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar: nos EUA, dados de inflação (PCE), atividade (ISM) e o discurso do Powell; na Europa, inflação (CPI); na China, atividade (PMI); por aqui, evolução da PEC e discussão sobre o ministério da Fazenda.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠Não deixe de acompanhar pra ficar por dentro do que rolou na semana e o que esperar da próxima!⁠

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview
Financial Market Preview - Wednesday 23-Nov

FactSet U.S. Daily Market Preview

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2022 4:14


US futures are pointing to a slightly lower open as of 4:05 ET ahead of Fed minutes and flash PMIs. European equity markets have opened mixed to lower but are now edging higher, following higher levels in Asia. PMI results from the US and Europe are influencing the macro narrative in markets, with investors anticipating an economic contraction in Q4 and early next year. Other influence will come from the central bank side with FOMC minutes due to be released and likely to reflect a shift towards moderating the pace of rate hikes.Companies Mentioned: Foxconn (Hon Hai), Manchester United

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Crude capped by price cap reports, overall sentiment tentative

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2022 4:07


European bourses are flat/mixed and have struggled for direction all morning despite fleeting hawkish reactions to the region's PMIsStateside, action is similarly ahead of a somewhat busier data docket on the last full session before ThanksgivingDXY reclaims but struggles to advance on 107.00 while Kiwi flies post 75bp RBNZ hike, GBP bolstered by PMIs & a court rulingGilts outperform ahead of supply and BoE's Pill while core EGBs are more contained after brief hawkish movesCrude capped by oil cap reports ahead of a potential EU Ambassadors discussion; benchmarks gave up their initial modest consolidation and now post downside of near 2.0%Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, US Durable Goods, IJC, New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes, Speeches from ECB's de Guindos & BoE's Pill.Click here for the Week Ahead previewRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Morning Call
21.11.22 - Ata do Fed, IPCA-15 e PEC da Transição são destaques da semana

Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 21, 2022 3:47


O #MorningCall da #XPInvestimentos mostra os principais destaques do dia e os impactos para o mercado, antes do pregão. Confira os temas de hoje, 21/11/2022: No cenário internacional, a política monetária americana continuará como principal tema da semana. O Federal Reserve irá publicar a ata da sua última reunião na quarta-feira, e dirigentes do banco central americano irão discursar ao longo dos próximos dias.No campo de dados econômicos, teremos também as prévias dos PMIs de países desenvolvidos que darão sinalizações quanto à atividade econômica global.No Brasil, notícias relacionadas à PEC de Transição e a nova equipe econômica do governo eleito seguem no radar do mercado. Além disso, dados fiscais e de setor externo referentes a outubro, assim como o IPCA-15 de novembro serão destaques.Acompanhe todos os conteúdos da XP em https://t2m.io/8cxPp6xParticipe do canal do Telegram para estar sempre atualizado: https://t.me/xp_investimentosConfira mais conteúdos também através do nosso Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/expertxp/

Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – 18 November 2022

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 18, 2022 24:35


In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US it's the FOMC minutes, Durable goods, PMIs and Fed speakers. In Europe it will be German PPI and IFO, flash PMIs, UK CBI trends and ECB speakers. Then it's a potential hike at the Riksbank and RBNZ meeting, escalations in Ukraine, China COVID concerns and the current state of Global markets all to discuss.

Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Weekender: Do not go gentle

Global Data Pod

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2022 15:35


The latest PMIs are consistent with the global economy settling back to the lackluster pace of growth is has averaged this year, but the momentum-loss is a concern even if tempered by further signs of ongoing strength in labor markets. The Fed pivoted but in the hawkish direction this week as did ECB rhetoric, while a more nuanced message is coming from other central banks. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Michael Hanson This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

The Critical Point Podcast
Free podcast- US economy slips near zero growth in Oct (PMIs)

The Critical Point Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2022 12:09


To subscribe: Critical Point Podcast $27.99 per month recurring. Billing begins two weeks from signup (a form of 2-week free trial). Cancel anytime. Primary focus on the US stock market and the major grains. Short-term to super-long-term forecasts from the business cycle model, including signals. Additional model-based opinion/signals include global stock market indexes, interest rates, dollar, bitcoin, gold, oil, the boom/bust cycle of the economy, and the cyclical climate events that can cause crop problems. For information, education, explanation see criticalpointpod.com. Email: rich@ag-financial.com

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
Euro Market Open: RBA stuck to 25bp, broader risk appetite improved post-Wall St.; PMIs & ISM ahead

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2022 5:34


APAC stocks traded firmer as risk appetite improved following a decline on Wall Street; ES +0.6%DXY softened amid the improved risk appetite and as yields took a breather from recent gains, G10s were firmer across the boardAUD/USD pared some of its gains after the RBA stuck to a 25bps hike and refrained from any major hawkish surprisesChina's Zhengzhou region said that the city will lift the temporary control for COVID-19 low-risk regions and gradually resume normal life, according to Global TimesUK PM Sunak and Chancellor Hunt said it is inevitable that Britons will pay more tax, and reportedly ruled out increasing income tax, National Insurance, and VAT, according to The Telegraph and BloombergLooking ahead, highlights include UK & US Manufacturing PMI (Final), US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS, New Zealand Unemployment, Earnings from BP, Marathon, Phillips 66, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Uber & AMDRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Morning Call
01.11.22 - Mercados positivos à espera de decisão do Fed; por aqui, ata do Copom no radar

Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2022 3:57


O #MorningCall da #XPInvestimentos mostra os principais destaques do dia e os impactos para o mercado, antes do pregão. Confira os temas de hoje, 01/11/2022: Na agenda local, seguimos acompanhando os desdobramentos da eleição de domingo, enquanto o Banco Central divulga a ata do Copom da última reunião e o IBGE a produção industrial de setembro.No exterior, investidores acompanharão números de produção industrial e os índices de gerentes de compras (PMIs, na sigla em inglês) dos Estados Unidos, além da continuação da temporada de balanços.Amanhã, quarta-feira, será dia de decisão de juros do Fed, quando os mercados locais estarão fechados pelo feriado nacional de Finados. Acompanhe todos os conteúdos da XP em https://t2m.io/8cxPp6xParticipe do canal do Telegram para estar sempre atualizado: https://t.me/xp_investimentosConfira mais conteúdos também através do nosso Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/expertxp/Investir com a XP Investimentos é fácil, basta criar o seu cadastro e em minutos você já pode começar a investir: https://t2m.io/7OSnDSj

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: European stocks trade mixed, USD is boosted, commodities are pressured, and UK clocks changed

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2022 3:36


European bourses began the week modestly firmer, though this proved shortlived and the complex has pivoted to being mixed overall in-fitting with the APAC handoverStateside, futures are under more pressure, ES -0.5% as yields pickup a touch, NQ -0.7% lags slightly as suchUSD is bolstered by the general risk tone, Yuan pressure post-PMIs and the latest piece from WSJ's Timiraos; DXY to a 111.20+ peakCore fixed benchmarks pressured with yields extending as we enter a week dominated by Central Bank activityCommodities under pressure amid the USD pickup and weak Chinese PMIs alongside COVID woesLooking ahead, highlights include US Chicago PMI & a speech from ECB's Lane.UK clocks changed from BST to GMT on Sunday, October 30th. As such, the time gap between London and New York is four hours until US clocks change on Sunday, November 6th.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
Euro Market Open: Predominantly positive trade though PMIs and COVID capped upside

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 31, 2022 5:25


APAC stocks traded mostly positively following last Friday's rally on Wall St although gains were capped by Chinese PMIs and COVID woes ahead of FOMC and US NFP this weekDXY was rangebound below 111.00, USD/JPY advanced at the Tokyo open and briefly reclaimed the 148.00 handle, Antipodeans were kept afloat amid the mostly positive risk toneRussia announced it is suspending the UN-brokered grain agreement with Ukraine; wheat futures rallied over 5% in the early hoursECB's Knot noted the ECB is not done with normalising monetary policy and is not even at half-time in its fight against inflationLooking ahead, highlights include German Retail Sales, EZ CPI (Flash) & GDP Prelim. (Flash), US Chicago PMI, Speech from ECB's LaneUK Clocks changed from BST to GMT on Sunday, October 30th. As such, the time gap between London and New York is four hours until US clocks change on Sunday, November 6thClick here for the Week Ahead previewRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Novus Capital
NovusCast - 28 de Outubro 2022

Novus Capital

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 28, 2022 19:36


Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠No cenário internacional, ocorreram diversas decisões de bancos centrais: no Canadá, a elevação da taxa de juros foi de 50 bps, menos que o esperado, com comunicação chamando atenção para os primeiros impactos de política monetária; no Japão, a taxa permaneceu inalterada, e foi mantido o guidance mais dovish; na Europa, a elevação foi de 75 bps, mas o comunicado foi também interpretado como tendo um tom mais dovish. Além disso, ainda por lá, foram divulgados dados de atividade (PMIs) e inflação, ambos demonstrando piora. Na China houve o término do Congresso do Partido Comunista Chinês, que consolidou o poder de Xi Jinping e a manutenção da política de Covid zero. Por fim, nos EUA, foram divulgados dados trimestrais de salário, que trouxeram sinais um pouco mais positivos, além de dados de inflação (PCE) e atividade (PIB). ⁠ No Brasil, foram divulgados: o IPCA-15, que veio acima do esperado, mas com núcleos importantes voltando à trajetória de metas; dados de emprego, ainda bastante positivos, com criação de vagas formais e baixa taxa de desemprego; e dados de confiança do começo do 4º trimestre, um pouco mais fracos que o esperado. Além disso, o Copom se reuniu e manteve a Selic e a comunicação inalteradas. No cenário eleitoral, o noticiário foi movimentado, com casos como o do ex-deputado Roberto Jefferson, da contestação a respeito das inserções nas rádios e das possíveis indicações de Henrique Meirelles. A semana foi, novamente, marcada por bastante volatilidade. Nos EUA, foram divulgados importantes resultados empresariais, e as bolsas fecharam em +3,95% (S&P500) e +2,09% (Nasdaq). O juro de 10 anos fechou 20 bps, enquanto o de 2 anos fechou 6 bps. Por aqui, o Ibovespa caiu 4,49%, o juro (jan/27) abriu 13 bps, e o real desvalorizou 2,50%. Na próxima semana ocorrerá reunião do Fed, serão divulgados dados de emprego nos EUA e, no Brasil, será importante acompanhar a disputa eleitoral.  ⁠ ⁠⁠Não deixe de acompanhar pra ficar por dentro do que rolou na semana e o que esperar da próxima!

FactSet Evening Market Recap
Evening Market Recap - Monday, 24-Oct

FactSet Evening Market Recap

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2022 5:05


US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending just off session highs and extending Friday's gains, which capped off best week for S&P and Nasdaq since June. Deeply depressed sentiment and positioning are still cited as the key upside driver. US flash manufacturing and services PMIs missed, and China tech and Macau-linked casinos were broadly weaker in the wake of the conclusion of its party congress.

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: US equity futures have recovered to near unchanged, USD remains bid, PMIs ahead

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 24, 2022 2:58


Equities are firmer in Europe and back to flat for US futures, as mixed APAC trade and PMI pressure eases a touchUSD has regrouped from Friday's dovish-downside though GBP outperforms while JPY has eased from best following pronounced APAC actionBonds back off after early EU buying frenzy; with Gilts leading the way as the prospect of Sunak becoming the UK PM increases significantlyCommodities clipped, but off worst, as the USD regains poise and recessionary concerns mount alongside further China COVID crackdownsEZ/UK PMIs were predominantly below expectation and flagged renewed recession concernsLooking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMI and the UK Conservative Party leadership electionRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – 21 October 2022

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 21, 2022 34:46


In this episode of our Week Ahead podcast series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US it's PCE, ECI, University of Michigan, flash PMIs and the Bank of Canada meeting. In Europe it will be flash PMIs, flash German CPI, German IFOs, Economic confidence indices and the all-important ECB meeting. In Ukraine a new push is underway, we have Australian CPI, the Bank of Japan, the new Chinese Politburo Standing Committee members debut and the current state of global markets all to discuss.

Dreams with Deadlines
OKR Strategies Demand Clarity, Flexibility and Hard Decisions | Antonio Civita, Founder at STRTGY

Dreams with Deadlines

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 43:43


Key Things Discussed The core mission at STRTGY, an Italian company that works internationally to mobilize teams around nimble, adaptable management structures and systems suited to today's fluid marketplace. What's required to effectively implement OKRs – including leadership buy-in and carefully defined and clearly communicated objectives. The things that founders have and their employees want – authority, agency and autonomy.  The power of real numbers and ongoing iterations to measure and optimize OKR roll outs. And finally… We get the scoop on Antonio's unique 12-week program for successful OKR adoption – from developing strategy to energizing teams to establishing a culture that embraces robust feedback to optimize procedures over time. Show Notes [00:02:32] Antonio explains STRTGY's core mission, which includes mobilizing teams and making older management structures more nimble and adaptable. [00:03:37] STRGY's ultimate goals revolve around three pillars – People, Processes, Products and Profits – designed to give companies a radically different model that is continuous, effective, structured, collaborative – and fun! [00:04:00] About how Antonio became the OKR expert he is today, including his boutique Italian innovation work untangling corporate structures whose systems were demotivating, ineffective, rigid with strategy profoundly disconnected from execution. [00:05:59] Antonio developed his unique approach to OKR adoption by combining his expertise as a workshop moderator with constantly evolving tools to improve the process. [00:06:36] Defining OKRs: Critical decisions about how to optimize resources (including teams) to win strategic challenges by iterating on an ongoing basis. [00:08:10] Why it's about more than just the numbers: Far more than end goals, which are fleeting, it's progress that keeps teams energized, bonded and committed. [00:10:12] About managing by numbers rather than expectations: Antonio too often sees managers issue ill-defined expectations, which leads to micromanagement and other counterproductive leadership behaviors. The alternative? Managing well-defined, transparent goals with real-time numbers and autonomous, proactive teams.  [00:12:08] Antonio focuses his clients on outcomes, not the path to getting there. [00:12:48] About “Make Progress with OKRs,” Antonio's new book influenced by recent research and analysis around productivity across industry sectors as well as problem-solving, autonomy and communication styles.  [00:14:30] The basic principles that support productivity, team work and non-judgmental, self-reinforcing reporting systems throughout a product's life cycle. [00:16:03] About what it is that founders have that everyone wants: Decision-making authority, autonomy and discernable rewards along the way. Do models that incorporate these elements remove roadblocks and inspire self-determination and accountability? [00:18:41] Antonio highlights processes and systems that support effective OKRs and shares his take on continuously updated SOPs, flexible structures, emotional alignment around goals and mechanisms for measuring for quality. [00:22:02] Jenny and Antonio reflect on misconceptions about autonomy versus procedure. Mindshare and structures = freedom up and down the enterprise.  [00:24:02] About Antonio's new book and its program for launching a successful OKR cycle in 90 days: Part I provides an overview of what OKRs are and why they're important. Part II is a 12-week program broken into three phases: 1. Working step-by-step to identify and align management around key objectives, culminating in a big, all-in meeting to share the methodology. 2. After securing buy-in, deploy bottom-up and sideways support from teams around key objectives and measures. 3. Deployment! The goals require discipline, good habits and prioritization of three important dynamics: A sense of progress, forward movement. Regular check-ins to slow activity, help identify roadblocks and avert constant hyper-reactivity. A culture in which feedback is ongoing and non-threatening to keep everyone positive and learning together. [00:30:23] Antonio recalls two of the transformational projects of which he is most proud, including the tools he and his team were able to deploy across cultures and sectors. [00:32:02] The Big Idea: What one thing would Antonio most like to advise as a thought leader in the OKR space? Invest the time and resources to ensure your strategy is crystal clear. Poorly written objectives disenfranchise contributors and generally result in poor execution. [00:36:50] Quick Fire Questions for Antonio: What is Antonio's Dream with a Deadline? To develop and evangelize the most pragmatic OKR program of any company in Europe. What does he most appreciate about his team? Their velocity with constant product development and the continuous improvement process they embrace. What's an example of a STRTGY execution that proved challenging? Starting from scratch with SEO optimization to differentiate from competitors; building a growth loop, community and human face in the midst of pandemic.  Any advice for those who have tried (and perhaps fallen short on) OKRs? Keep going! Nobody gets it right the first time. Ensure that there's commitment at the top levels and clarity among those executing at the lower levels. Communicate! When will Antonio's book be available? He's in the midst of a crowdfunding campaign and his first edition (in Italian) will be available on Amazon and elsewhere this fall. Relevant links: "Measure What Matters," by John Doerr. "The Progress Principle: Using Small Wins to Ignite Joy, Engagement, and Creativity at Work," by Teresa Amabile and Steven Kramer. Andy Grove's book introducing the idea of growth at the periphery: "Only the Paranoid Survive: Lessons from the CEO of Intel Corporation." “Make Progress con gli OKR” (Make Progress with OKRs) is now available. About Our Guest:Antonio support big clients, PMIs and start-ups as a Design Leader driving innovation through “Design Thinking” and “Human Centered Design” processes to solve complex problems with a data-driven and creative problem-solving approach. He works in many fields including branding, service design, UX, digital products, portals and e-commerce platforms.Follow Our Guest:Website | LinkedInFollow Dreams With Deadlines:Host | Company Website | Blog | Instagram | Twitter

How to Buy a Home
Ep 136 - First Time Home Buyer Terms And Definitions From A-Z - "O-P" - Part 1

How to Buy a Home

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 18, 2022 22:52


A continuation of the glossary of terms you need to know when buying a house. The next stop is O and P. Know your PUDs from your PMIs. David Sidoni uses real-life layman's terms and definitions so you don't feel overwhelmed and clueless with all the real estate jargon. Plus a very special SIDE NOTE to help you learn even more about the first-time home buying process.This podcast was started for YOU, to demystify things for first time home buyers, and help crush the confusion. After helping first timers for over 13 years, I knew there wasn't t a lot of clear, tangible, useable information out there on the internet, so I started this podcast. Help me spread the word to other people just like you, dying for answers. Tell your friends, family, and perhaps that random neighbor you REALLY want to move out about How to Buy a Home! A really easy way is to hit the share button and text it to your friends. Go for it, help someone out. And if you're not already a regular listener, subscribe and get constant updates on the market. If you are a regular and learned something, help me help others – give the show a quick review in Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts, or write a review on Spotify. Let's change the way the real estate industry treats you first time buyers, one buyer at a time, starting with you – and make sure your favorite people don't get screwed by going into this HUGE step blind and confused. Viva la Unicorn Revolution! Instagram @DavidSidoniTik Tok @howtobuyahome

Novus Capital
NovusCast - 07 de Outubro 2022

Novus Capital

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 7, 2022 16:02


Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Yara Cordeiro debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠No cenário internacional, foram divulgados importantes dados de emprego nos EUA: no começo da semana, o relatório JOLTS mostrou queda significativa no número de vagas abertas mas, no final da semana, o Payroll reafirmou a força do mercado de trabalho americano, apesar da queda marginal na taxa de participação. A atividade por lá também segue sustentada, conforme observado na divulgação dos ISMs. Na Austrália, o banco central (RBA) se reuniu e elevou o juro em 25 bps, menos que o esperado pelo mercado. Por fim, a OPEC anunciou corte de produção de 2 milhões de barris/dia. ⁠ No Brasil, o principal acontecimento foi o 1º turno das eleições, que chamou atenção por, principalmente, 2 fatores: (i) o resultado bem mais apertado do que se esperava nas pesquisas, que subestimaram o alcance do presidente Bolsonaro; (ii) a composição do Congresso, com o atual mandatário e seu partido elegendo muitos candidatos. Além disso, também foram divulgados diversos dados de atividade (comércio, indústria, produção de veículos, PMIs) que trouxeram sinais de que os primeiros efeitos da apertada política monetária estão sendo sentidos. ⁠A semana começou bastante positiva no exterior, mas tal cenário foi revertido. Nos EUA, o S&P500 fechou em +1,51%, e o Nasdaq em +0,62%; o juro de 10 anos, que teve forte fechamento, terminou abrindo 5 bps; e o petróleo subiu 16,54%. No Brasil foi diferente, a bolsa (Ibovespa) subiu 5,76%, o real valorizou 4,08% e o juro longo (jan/27) fechou 20 bps. ⁠ Na próxima semana teremos dados de inflação no Brasil e nos EUA. ⁠⁠Não deixe de acompanhar pra ficar por dentro do que rolou na semana e o que esperar da próxima!⁠ ⁠⁠

Bloomberg Surveillance
Surveillance: The Fed & the Labor Market

Bloomberg Surveillance

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 26:45


Bruce Kasman, JPMorgan Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic Research calls it “appropriate” for the Federal Reserve to target a softening of the US labor market. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets Head of US Equity Strategy, says it's time to pivot to small caps. Nadia Calvino, Spanish Economy Minister, says the Spanish economy continues to grow quite strongly. Chloe Smith, UK Secretary of State Work and Pensions, says the UK government is in talks with the Pensions Regulator. Dan Skelly, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Head of Market Research and Strategy, says he is watching earnings, PMIs, and jobs data to decide when to increase equity exposure again. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Critical Point Podcast
Economy as of Sep 2022 PMIs and the business cycle

The Critical Point Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2022 9:59


Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – 30 September 2022

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 30, 2022 29:50


In this episode of our Week Ahead series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US we have NFP, ISM, PMIs, Factory orders and Fed speakers. In Europe we have an energy policy summit, OPEC, Euro PPI and the UK in a state of flux. Then we'll discuss the RBA, RBNZ, the situation in Ukraine, events in Asia and the current state of global markets.

Morning Call
29.09.22 - Atenções voltadas para Inflação na Alemanha e PMI na China

Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 29, 2022 3:59


O #MorningCall da #XPInvestimentos mostra os principais destaques do dia e os impactos para o mercado, antes do pregão. Confira os temas de hoje, 29/09/2022:O mercado repercute a decisão do governo do Reino Unido de aumentar gastos e reduzir tributos por meio do aumento da dívida pública. Banco da Inglaterra lança programa de compra de títulos para conter crise.Na agenda do dia, os principais eventos temos a divulgação do índice de inflação da Alemanha e dos PMIs (composto, manufatura e serviços) da China. No Brasil, teremos a divulgação do Relatório Trimestral de Inflação do Banco Central. Acompanhe todos os conteúdos da XP em https://t2m.io/8cxPp6xParticipe do canal do Telegram para estar sempre atualizado: https://t.me/xp_investimentosConfira mais conteúdos também através do nosso Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/expertxp/ Assine o Expert Pass e tenha acesso a conteúdos exclusivos: https://bit.ly/ExpertPass.Investir com a XP Investimentos é fácil, basta criar o seu cadastro e em minutos você já pode começar a investir: https://t2m.io/7OSnDSj

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast
US Market Open: Contraction/recession concerns post-PMIs hit sentiment, Gilts sink post-Kwarteng

Ransquawk Rundown, Daily Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2022 3:05


European bourses are pressured across the board after the Flash PMI releases for the region indicate a contraction & resurgence in price pressures; Euro Stoxx 50 -1.5%Stateside, futures are lower in sympathy and continuing APAC performance awaiting their own PMI metrics and Fed commentaryGilts decimated to sub-99.00 from the 102.30 region in wake of the mini-Budget and accompanying fund consideration and potential inflationary implicationsDXY surging to a fresh 112.3+ peak to the detriment of peers across the board, GBP pressure exacerbated post-KwartengCrude benchmarks are pressured by pronounced USD strength and risk action amid recessionary fears; awaiting potential weekend updatesLooking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs and a speech from Fed Chair Powell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Suno Research
SINAIS DE RECESSÃO Com PMIs Fracos Petróleo Em Queda Nubank (NUBR33) Nega Que Vai Fechar

Suno Research

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 23, 2022 24:39


Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – 16 September 2022

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 16, 2022 31:33


In this episode of our Week Ahead series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US we have the PMIs and the Fed meeting – will they hike by 100bps? In Europe we have a lot of central banks; the BOE, Norges, Riksbank and the SNB. We also have the UK's mini budget, PMIs and Italian political risks to consider too. Then we'll discuss the possible JPY intervention at the BOJ meeting, the energy crisis, events in Asia and the current state of global markets.

NAB Morning Call
UK and Europe move from bad to worse, RBA today

NAB Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 5, 2022 16:20


Tuesday 6th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 It's RBA day today. NAB's Ivan Colhoun talks through what to expect, whilst Ray Attrill looks at the worsening situation in the UK and Europe. Gas prices have risen after the closure of the Nordstream pipeline, and oil prices are also on the rise after OPEC+ agreed to production cuts from next month. We've also seen a revision in PMIs in Europe, with the UK services PMI moving into contractionary territory. Signs of resilience are quickly disappearing. It's a different story for the US, though, where ISM numbers are expecting to stay above 50, adding to the pressure the US dollar will place on other major currencies.

Abertura de Mercado
Mercados abrem setembro no vermelho enquanto digerem dados da China e dos EUA

Abertura de Mercado

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 1, 2022 21:19


Depois de um ráli nas últimas semanas, as bolsas mundiais abrem o mês de setembro no vermelho. A sensação agora, como pontuado por analistas consultados, é de que os mercados estão digerindo o discurso mais agressivo de Jerome Powell, presidente do Federal Reserve System (Fed, banco central norte-americano), na última sexta-feira (26). Além da perspectiva de que o Fed suba mais a taxa de juros, a atividade fraca da economia chinesa, como mostrado pelos PMIs na manhã da última quarta, corrobora para o pessimismo do mercado. É sobre o comportamento das bolsas ao redor do mundo que o CNN Money desta quinta-feira (1.º) se volta. Apresentado por Thais Herédia e Priscila Yazbek, o CNN Money apresenta um balanço dos assuntos do noticiário que influenciam os mercados, as finanças e os rumos da sociedade e das dinâmicas de poder no Brasil e no mundo.

NAB Morning Call
Euro inflation high, pound heading back to the pleasure dome

NAB Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 31, 2022 14:31


Thursday 1st September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Euro area inflation is the highest since the creation of the Euro and NAB's David de Garis says markets are no pricing in a greater than 50 percent change that the ECB will lift rates by 75 basis points next week. That's helped support the Euro today, whilst the pound falls further, to levels we saw in early 1985, when mullets were fashionable. Still are for some, of course. Australia's construction sector has taken a battering, driven by weather and higher supply costs, but private sector credit growth remains strong. China's PMIs show an economy that is taking a long time to recover – in part because of COVID, but hot weather has also had an impact. Friday's jobs numbers will focus attention now, but the new ADP report has shown jobs growth for larger businesses and a fall in small business employment.

Abertura de Mercado
Mercado digere temores sobre juros nos EUA; PMIs da Europa mostram desaceleração

Abertura de Mercado

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 23, 2022 19:44


Apesar de faltar pouco mais de um mês para o primeiro turno das eleições de 2022, o mercado financeiro brasileiro tem demonstrado uma certa calmaria, que surpreende, também, ao se analisar o turbilhão que atravessa a economia internacional. Em especial nos Estados Unidos, o clima é de ansiedade, à medida em que investidores antecipam os rumos da taxa de juros para combate à inflação. Na Europa, por outro lado,  é de angústia -- e os resultados divulgados do índice de gerentes de compras (PMI, na sigla em inglês) nesta manhã coroam o pessimismo quanto à atividade econômica.  Apresentado por Thais Herédia e Priscila Yazbek, o CNN Money apresenta um balanço dos assuntos do noticiário que influenciam os mercados, as finanças e os rumos da sociedade e das dinâmicas de poder no Brasil e no mundo.

Global Data Pod
Global Data Pod Weekender: Takes a lickin', keeps on tickin'

Global Data Pod

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 5, 2022 20:39


Despite an onslaught of supply shocks, the global expansion looks to have continued through July. Risks remain elevated, as the July global PMIs this week showed a concerning loss of momentum across sectors and regions—including Asia. However, a huge upside surprise in US job gains suggests employers continue to expand. With recession risks having faded some and headline inflation set to slow sharply, the focus is now on how aggressive central banks will need to act to remove underlying price pressures. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on August 5, 2022. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2022 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.

Thoughts on the Market
Europe: Why is the ECB Increasing their Rate Hikes?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2022 9:43 Very Popular


This week the European Central Bank surprised economists and investors alike with a higher than anticipated rate hike, so why this hike and what comes next? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief European Economist Jens Eisenschmidt discuss.-----Transcript-----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley's Chief Europe Economist. Andrew Sheets: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the market will be discussing the recent ECB rate hike and the path ahead. It's Friday, July 22nd at 4 p.m. in London. Andrew Sheets: So, Jens, I want to talk to you about the ECB's big rate decision yesterday. But before we do that, I think we should start by laying the scene of the European economy. In a nutshell, how is Europe's economy doing and what do you think are the most salient points for investors to be aware of? Jens Eisenschmidt: Great question, Andrew. We have revised downwards our growth outlook for the euro area economy on the back of the reduced gas flow coming out from Russia into Germany starting at some point in mid-June. And we are now seeing a mild recession for the euro area economy setting in towards the end of this year and the beginning of next. This is in stark contrast to what the ECB, as early as June, has been saying the euro area economy would look like. I think incoming data, since our call for a bit more muted economic outlook, has been on the negative side. So for instance, we just today had the PMIs in contractionary territory. So the PMIs are the Purchasing Managers Indexes, which are soft indicators of economic activity. Soft because are survey evidence they're essentially questions ask industry participants about what they see on their side, and out of these questions an index is derived for economic activity. So all in all, the outlook is relatively muted, as I said, and I think a recession is clearly in the cards. Andrew Sheets: But Jens, why is growth in Europe so weak? When you think about things like that big decline in PMI that we just saw this week, what's driving that? What do you think is the key thing that maybe other forecasters might be missing in terms of driving this weakness? Jens Eisenschmidt: I mean, Europe is very, very close to one of the largest, geopolitical conflicts of our time. We have, as a consequence of that, to deal with very high energy prices. The dependance on Russian gas, for instance, is very high in several parts of Western Europe. But you're right, we have still accommodative monetary policy, so, all in all, we still have positive and negative factors, but we think that the negative factors are starting now to have the bigger weight in all this. And we have seen for the first time, as you just mentioned to PMI's in contractionary territory, while we are of course having a bit in the service sector, a different picture which is still driven from reopening dynamics coming out from COVID. So everybody wants to have a holiday after they didn't have one last year and the year before. Andrew Sheets: So I guess speaking of holidays, it involves a lot of driving, a lot of flying. I think that's a good segway into the energy story in Europe. This has been a really challenging dynamic because you've had obviously the risk of energy being cut off into Europe. When you think about modeling scenarios of less energy being available via Russia, how do you go about modeling that and what could the impact be? Jens Eisenschmidt: No, that's really the hard part here. Because, ultimately, if the energy is flowing and continues to flow, you can rely on data that goes back and that gives you some relationship between the price and then what the impact on economic activity on that price schedule will be. But if energy is falling to levels where governments have to decide duration, then the modeling becomes so much harder because you have to decide then in your model who gets gas or oil and at what price. That makes it very hard and it also explains why there's a huge range of model outcomes out there showing GDP impact for some economies as deep, in terms of contraction, of 10 to 15%. We are not in that camp. We think that even in a situation of a total cut off of, say, Russian gas, the euro area economy would contract, but not as deeply. Part of that is that we think that some time has elapsed since the threat has first become a possibility and the system has adjusted to some extent. And then what you get is a system that's a little bit more resilient now to a cut than it may have been in March. Andrew Sheets: Jens. I think that's also a good connection to the inflation story. So on one hand, inflation dynamics in Europe look quite similar to the U.S. On the other hand those inflation dynamics seem somewhat different from the U.S., core inflation is not as high, wage inflation is not as high. Could you kind of walk us through a bit of how you see that inflation story in Europe and how it's similar or different to what we see going on in the U.S.? Jens Eisenschmidt: There is clearly a difference here, and I think the ECB has never been tiring in stressing that difference that most of the inflation here in Europe is driven by external factors. And here, of course, energy is the big elephant in the room. It's not helped by the fact that we had a depreciation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar and most of the energy is, as we know, a built in U.S. dollar. We also have a significant food inflation, and of course, it's also linked very, very tightly to the conflict in Ukraine, where we have Ukraine as a big food exporter. Just think of oil, think of wheat, all these things that are in the headlines. So that's structurally different from a situation in the U.S. where you do have a significant part of the inflation being internal demand driven. And of course that leads to interconnection with a very tight labor market to a higher core inflation. Now core inflation in the euro area has also been picking up and it's certainly not at levels where the European Central Bank can be happy with. But, you know, all in all, both our set of assumptions and forecasts as well as the ECB's in the end boil down to a slight overshoot in the medium term of their inflation target. Andrew Sheets: So Jens, all of this brings us back to the main event, so to speak. The European Central Bank raised interest rates yesterday for the first time since 2011, and it was a pretty large increase. It was a half a percentage point increase. So what's driving the ECB thinking here and how is it trying to weigh all these different factors, in a world where rates are rising? Jens Eisenschmidt: So indeed, the ECB yesterday ended its negative rates policy, which was designed for a completely different environment, an environment of a persistent undershoot of its inflation target. By all available measures, they are now at target or above. So that in itself justifies ending this policy, and this is what they did yesterday. Now, of course, there is a concern that the high inflation that we see today is feeding into wage negotiations, is feeding into a process of more structurally higher inflation, and that risks the anchoring inflation expectations. So there is a need, even if you see the economy going weaker, there is a need to tighten its monetary policy. At the same time, they have this geopolitical conflict just very near to them. They have the risk to growth that we were talking about before. So that also means you cannot just now go out and line out a significant path of rate increases. So that leads to the second component of their decision yesterday. So they were say we will go meeting by meeting and we will be data dependent in our move. Andrew Sheets: So Jens, let's bring this back to markets. When you look at what markets are currently expecting from the ECB in terms of rate hikes out over the next, say, 18 months, do you think the ECB is likely to deliver more tightening than those rates imply or deliver rates that are lower than those current market expectations? Jens Eisenschmidt: So if you just talk about where markets see the ECB peaking, that's at 1.5%. We agree, just that we don't agree on the timing. So we, for instance, see the ECB going 50 basis points in September, but then slowing down to 25 in October and another 25 in December. And then we really see the ECB pausing until September next year. And the pause is introduced because the economy is weakening and significantly so, and we see this centered around the end of the year. Now in the markets, there is a bit of an assumption that the ECB will be more aggressive in terms of getting to the 1.5% earlier. Not necessarily still this year, but at some point early next year. Andrew Sheets: And just from the perspective of markets, you know, this is a reason why Morgan Stanley's foreign exchange team thinks that the euro will continue to weaken against the dollar. It's both a function of Jens your weak growth forecasts, but also potentially this idea that rates won't rise in Europe quite as fast as the market is expecting. Which would mean somewhat less support for the currency. Andrew Sheets: Jens, thanks for taking the time to talk. Jens Eisenschmidt: Thanks a lot, Andrew. It was a pleasure being with you. Andrew Sheets: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.