Podcasts about pmis

Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference. So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle. Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum. And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front? Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth. Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable. And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline growth here is effectively zero. Michelle Weaver: And how does power play into the reshoring story? AI and data centers are generating huge demand for power that well outstrip supply. Is there a risk that companies that want to reshore are not able to do so because of the power constraints?Christopher Snyder: It's a great question. I think it's part of the reason that this is moving more slowly. The companies that sell this power equipment tend to prioritize the data center customers given their scale in magnitude of buying. But ultimately, we think this is coming and it's a big opportunity for U.S. power to extend the upcycle.Manufacturing accounts for 26 percent of the electricity in the country. Data center accounts for about 5 percent. So, if the industrial economy returns to growth, there will be a huge pull on the grid; and I view it as a competitive advantage. If you think about the future of U.S. manufacturing, we're simply taking labor out and replacing it with electricity. That is a phenomenal trade off for the U.S. And a not as positive trade off for a lot of low-cost regions who essentially export labor to the world. I'm sure Adam will have more to say about that. Michelle Weaver: And Adam, I want to bring robotics and humanoid specifically into this conversation as the U.S.' technological edge is a big part of the reshoring story. So how do humanoids fit into reshoring? How much would they cost to use and how could they make American manufacturing more attractive? Adam Jonas: Humanoid robots – we're talking age agentic robots that make decisions from themselves autonomously due to the dual purpose in the military. You know, dual purpose aspect of it makes it absolutely necessary to onshore the technologies.At the same time, humanoid robots actually make it possible to onshore those technologies. Meaning you need; we're not going to be able to replicate manufacturing and onshore manufacturing the way it's currently done in China with their environmental practices and their labor – availability of affordable cheap human labor.Autonomous robots are both the cause of onshoring. And the effect of onshoring at the same time, and it's going to transform every industry. The question isn't so much as which industry will autonomous robots, including humanoids impact? It's what will it not.And we have not yet been able to find anything that it would. When you think about cost to use – we think by 2040 we get to a point where to Chris's point, the marginal cost of work will be some factor of electricity, energy, and some depreciation of that physical plant, or the physical robot itself. And we come up with a, a range of scenarios where centered on around $5 per hour. If that can replace two human workers at $25 an hour, that can NPV to around $200,000 of NPV per humanoid. That's discounting back 15 years from 2040.Michelle, there's 160 million people in the U.S. labor market, so if you just substituted 1 percent of that or 1.6 million people out of the U.S. Labor pool. 1.6 million times $200,000 NPV; that's $320 billion of value, which is worth, well, quite a lot. Quite a lot of money to a lot of companies that are working on this. So, when we get asked, what are we watching, well, in terms of the bleeding edge of the robot revolution, we're watching the Sino-U.S. competition. And I prefer to call it competition. And we're also watching the terra cap companies, the Mag 7 type companies that are quite suddenly and recently and very, very significantly going after physical AI and robotics talent. And increasingly even manufacturing talent. So again, to circle back to Chris's point, if you want evidence of reshoring and manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in this country, look at some of these TMT and tech and AI companies in California. And look at, go on their hiring website and watch all the manufacturing and robotics people that they're trying to hire; and pay a lot of money to do so. And that might be an interesting indicator of where we're going.Michelle Weaver: I want to dig in a little bit more there. We're seeing a lot of the cutting-edge tech coming out of China. Is the U.S. going to be able to catch up?Adam Jonas: Uh, I don't know. I don't know. But I would say what's our alternative. We either catch up enough to compete or we're up for grabs. OK?I would say from our reading and working closely with our team in China, that in many aspects of supply chain, manufacturing, physical AI, China is ahead. And with the passage of time, they are increasingly ahead. We estimate, and we can't be precise here, that China's lead on the U.S. would not only last three to five years, but might even widen three to five years from now. May even widen at an accelerating rate three to five years from now.And so, it brings into play is what kind of environment and what kind of regulatory, and policy decisions we made to help kind of level the playing field and encourage the right kind of manufacturing. We don't want to encourage trailing edge, Victorian era manufacturing in the U.S. We want to encourage, you know, to skate to where the puck is going technology that can help improve our world and create a sustainable abundance rather than an unsustainable one. And so, we're watching China very, very closely. It makes us a little bit; makes me a little bit kind of nervous when we – if we see the government put the thumb on the scale too much.But it's invariably going to happen. You're going to have increased involvement of whichever administration it is in order to kind of set policies that can encourage innovation, education of our young people, repurposing of labor, you know. All these people making machines in this country now. They might get, there may be a displacement over a number of years, if not a generation.But we need those human bodies to do other things in this economy as well. So, we; I don't want to give the impression at all in our scenarios that we don't need people anymore. Michelle Weaver: What are the opportunities and the risks that you see for investors as robotics converges with this broader U.S. manufacturing story? Adam Jonas: Well, Michelle, we see both opportunities and risks. There are the opportunities that you can measure in terms of what portion of global GDP of [$]115 trillion could you look at. I mean, labor alone is $40 trillion.And if you really make humanoid that can do the work of two workers, guess what? You're not going to stop at [$]40 trillion. You're going to go beyond that. You might go multiple beyond that. Talking about the world before AI, robotics and humanoid is like talking about the world before electricity. Or talking about business before the internet. We don't think we're exaggerating, but the proof will be in the capital formation. And that's where we hope we can be of assistance to our clients working together on a variety of investment ideas. But the risks will come and it is our professional responsibility, if not our moral responsibility, to work with our partners across research to talk about those risks. Michelle, if we have labor displacement, go too quickly, there's serious problems. And if you don't, if you don't believe me, go look at, look at you know, the French Revolution or the Industrial Revolution, or Age of Enlightenments. Ages of scientific enlightenment frequently cohabitate times of great social and political turmoil as well. And so, we think that these risks must be seen in parallel if we want to bring forth technologies that can make us more human rather than less human. I'm sorry if I'm coming across as a little preachy, but if you studied robots and labor all day long, it does have that effect on you. So, Michelle, how do you see innovation priorities changing for industrials and investors in this environment?Michelle Weaver: I think it's huge as we're seeing AI and technology broadly diffuse across different segments of the market, it's only becoming more important. About two-thirds of companies at the conference mentioned AI in some way, shape, or form. We know that from transcripts. And we're seeing them continue to integrate AI into their businesses. They're trying to go beyond what we've just seen at the initial edge. So, for example, if I think about what was going on within AI adoption a couple years ago, it was largely adding a chat bot to your website that's then able to handle a lot of customer service inquiries. Maybe you could reduce the labor there a little bit. Now we're starting to see a lot more business specific use cases. So, for example, with an airline, an airline company is using AI to most optimally gate different planes as they're landing to try and reduce connection times. They know which staff needs to go to another flight to connect, which passengers need to move to another flight. They're able to do that much more efficiently. You're seeing a lot on AI being adopted within manufacturing to make manufacturing processes a lot more seamless. So, I think innovation is only going to continue to become more important to not only industrials, but broadly the entire market as well.Clearly the industry is being shaped by adaptability, collaboration, and a focus on innovation. So, Chris, Adam, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Adam Jonas: Always a pleasure. Michelle.Christopher Snyder: Thank you for having us on. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news that while financial markets are quiet due to the US Labor Day holiday, the data being reported in the rest of the world is actually very encouraging, especially for the factory sectors.In China, the private Caixin PMI has a new sponsor - RatingDog. It is still produced by S&P Global. That August factory PMI showed manufacturing output returned to growth in August. Total new business expanded at quickest pace since March. But it also reported the fastest rise in average input prices in nine months. As has become the norm in 2025, this private PMI series is more bullish than the official PMI.While we are noting improved factory PMIs in Australia and China, we should also note that they improved in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Indonesia as well. The Trump tariff-taxes aren't killing these countries. In fact, because it is the American importers who are paying these taxes (and ultimately the American consumer), the whole tariff journey just shows the American's are prepared to pay a lot more for what they import, and demand isn't flagging. Yet, anyway.Of special note is the regaining of momentum in India where their factory PMI turned notably higher on new orders and new-found momentum. This is now their fastest improvement in operating conditions in seventeen and a half years, with production growth accelerating to a nearly five-year high, supported by strong demand and better alignment of supply with orders. New orders rose at the fastest pace in nearly five years, and given they have been strong in the lead-up, this is really saying something.Even European factories are on the move up, returning to expansion with the sharpest rise in factory output since March 2022. Their factory PMI is now at its highest in 41 months.Australia's factory sector expansion accelerated again in August. Higher new order levels, supported by a rise in exports, led to a solid rise in production. Confidence rose to its highest level since February 2022. The survey showed that manufacturers hired more staff and raised their purchasing and inventory levels. Meanwhile price pressures remained little problem.And staying in Australia, their residential building consents fell -8.2% in July from June, almost double the market expectations of a -4.8% fall. This sharply ate into the upwardly revised +12.2% increase in June. The decline was largely due to a sharp fall in approvals for dwellings that weren't houses (apartments and townhouses). By state, approvals fell sharpest in New South Wales (-25%), while rising in Tasmania (+12%), Western Australia (+12%), in Queensland (+5.9%).Lower new homebuilding is juicing up their existing-home real estate markets. Cotality reported strong August gains from July, up +0.7% for the month nationally. It's back as a strong sellers market. The rises in Brisbane and Perth are notable, but the gains in Adelaide and Sydney were not far behind them in August. The consequences for affordability for most aspiring buyers look awful.We should probably also note that the forecast for Australia's wheat crop was raised sharply in an overnight update. Good rains recently is behind the revision.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, up +2 bps from yesterday at this time. The key 2-10 yield curve is up at +62 bps. The last time it was this steep was in February 2022. Long dated yields are on the move higher. The UST 30 year yield is actually closing in on 2007 levels. The price of gold will start today at US$3,477/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday and a new record high. Silver topped US$40/oz for the first time since 2011, also near a record high.American oil prices are +50 USc firmer at just over US$64.50/bbl with the international Brent price holding just over US$68/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 59 USc and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps 90 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps as well at 50.4 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 66.4, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$108,918 and little-changed (down -0.1%) from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Semaine #36. Chaque lundi matin nous servons le SILEXpresso, un condensé vocal de 5mn sur nos vues macro et allocation.  Retrouvez également le SILEXpresso, et bien plus encore, sur l'app SPARK :https://go.silex-partners.com/download/my_SPARK_appHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Raphael Félix, CFP®, CNPI, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Nos EUA, a demissão da diretora do Fed por Donald Trump elevou a incerteza política, enquanto o PIB do segundo trimestre surpreendeu positivamente. Na Europa, medidas para reduzir tarifas com os EUA deram algum fôlego aos mercados, e na China, o governo sinalizou estímulos para sustentar o crescimento. No Brasil, a inflação recuou, mas os indicadores de atividade mostraram fraqueza. Para os próximos dias, os destaques são o Payroll nos EUA e a produção industrial no Brasil. Nos EUA, os PMIs vieram fortes e Powell sinalizou possível corte de juros, apesar de alertar para riscos inflacionários. O dólar caiu e o S&P 500 fechou em alta. No Brasil, a curva de juros abriu nos prazos médios e longos, refletindo incertezas locais. O Ibovespa subiu, apoiado pelo cenário externo. Para os próximos dias, destaque para o IPCA-15, IGP-M e dados do Caged no Brasil, além do PCE e PIB nos EUA." Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news there was an unexpected turn in the US tariff situation late last week.In a dramatic ruling, most of Trump's global tariffs were declared illegal by a US appeals court that found he exceeded his authority in imposing them. He will almost certainly appeal to his Supreme Court.Then, over the weekend we got the official Chinese PMIs for August and they extended the sluggish environment their manufacturing sector finds itself in. Despite the 90 'extension' before punitive tariffs kick in with the US, orders contracted for a fifth consecutive month. On the services side however, they maintained their small expansion in August, albeit marginally better.But early data suggests their housing slump is not ending, maybe even getting worse. Sale volumes in August are likely to be more than -17% lower than a year ago.Although it is a shortened week in the US, it ends with the August jobs data. Markets expect another weak result (just +78,000). You will recall the weak data last month saw Trump fire the agency head who compiled it. So there will be special attention this time on its believability under the BLS agency's deputy. Before that we will get lead-up jobs data, the ISM PMIs for the US.Canada will also release labour market data. The EU inflation data, and others will release GDP data for Q2-2025, including from Australia on Wednesday.At the end of last week, July data out in the US shows that disposable personal income was up +2.0% from a year ago, personal consumption expenditure was up +2.1% on the same basis. On a month-on-month basis, the income was up +0.4% and expenditure up +0.5%. These elements are not major but they do indicate a tightening in household financial budgets.Nested deep within this release was that core PCE index rose 2.9% year-on-year in July, its largest rise since February and above the Fed's target and comfort zone. Tariff costs are getting the blame. Financial markets noticed.And that is the same sort of tightening indicated by the widely-watched University of Michigan sentiment survey. Its final August version fell back markedly from its initial readings, a clear indication households are finding it tougher. It is now -14% lower than a year ago. The Biden boom is now just a memory.On the factory floor, the latest indicators are shifting down too. The August Chicago PMI headed south quite sharply to be -10% below year-ago levels.And the US seems to be losing the tariff war it started - and Americans are paying the tariff-taxes. The latest trade data for July shows that the US merchandise trade deficit jumped to -US$104 billion in the month, exactly the same as July a year ago, and far above expectations of -US$90 bln deficit. It is their largest in four months. Imports jumped +7.1% from a month earlier, led by industrial supplies, capital goods, food, and consumer goods. Meanwhile, exports slipped -0.1%.Certainly, American farmers are not happy. And they have a President who probably doesn't even know where Pakistan is, let alone most other simple facts.In Canada, they got a sharp dose of shock in their Q2-2025 GDP result from the sharp turn on them from their southern neighbour. Their GDP fell -0.4% in the quarter and cancelling out the +0.5% gain in their first quarter. Year-on-year their GDP is still up +0.9% however.Across the Pacific the economic data is generally much more positive. South Korea's retail sales surged +2.5% in July from June, a big jump from a revised +0.7% increase in June and marking the fastest growth in over two years. From a year ago it is up +2.4% and that too is the most since January 2022.South Korean industrial production grew solidly in July as well, up +5.0% from a year ago.After a good gain in June, Japan's industrial production fell -1.6% in July, reversing a +2.1% June gain and much more than the -1.0% decline anticipated.Japanese retail sales only rose by +0.3% in July from a year ago, slowing sharply from a downwardly revised +1.9% gain in June and falling well short of market expectations for a +1.8% increase.But Japanese consumer confidence actually rose in August to its best level of the year with gains across all surveyed questions.We should also note that protests in Jakarta on Friday that turned deadly have put Indonesia on edge. They have spread over the weekend. Canberra will be watching nervously.In Europe, the ECB's survey found that consumer inflation expectations were stable ("well anchored") in July at 2.6% for the year ahead.Globally, air passenger demand was up +4.0% in July, driven by the Asia/Pacific +5.7% rise and held back by the North American +1.9% rise. Most of this is due to international travel. Meanwhile, air cargo traffic was even stronger in July, up +5.5% from a year ago, up +6.0% for international trade. Asia/Pacific was the strongest region here too, up +11.0% for international cargoes. But North American international cargo volumes only rose +1.5%, the weakest global region.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, unchanged from Saturday, but down -3 bps from a week ago. The price of gold will start today at US$3,447/oz, up another +US$5 from Saturday, and close to a new record high, but basically a measure of the USD markdown. A week ago it was at US$3,371/oz so a net +US$76 gainAmerican oil prices are again little-changed at US$64/bbl with the international Brent price holding just under US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just under 59 USc and unchanged from Saturday at this time, up +30 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 90.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged as well at 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 66.5, and unchanged from Saturday, up +20 bps for the week.The bitcoin price starts today at US$109,022 and up +0.5% from this time Saturday. But is down -6.7% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/- 0.5%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Allan Fukumoto, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento:"Nos EUA, os PMIs vieram fortes e Powell sinalizou possível corte de juros, apesar de alertar para riscos inflacionários. O dólar caiu e o S&P 500 fechou em alta. No Brasil, a curva de juros abriu nos prazos médios e longos, refletindo incertezas locais. O Ibovespa subiu, apoiado pelo cenário externo. Para os próximos dias, destaque para o IPCA-15, IGP-M e dados do Caged no Brasil, além do PCE e PIB nos EUA."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights.Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

US equity futures are slightly softer. Asia ended mixed, and European markets are lower. Markets remain focused on Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, with September rate cut odds falling below 80% after hawkish Fedspeak and stronger US flash PMIs. July FOMC minutes leaned hawkish, though the impact was muted by subsequent labor data; US flash PMIs showed the strongest manufacturing and services readings in over a year, but input prices rose sharply, adding stagflation concerns alongside the weaker Philadelphia Fed survey; Markets continue to track AI-driven equity pullbacks and tariff headlines, with investors bracing for possible US chip tariff announcements.Companies Mentioned: Nvidia, Boeing, Tesla

Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders' Summit in October, "dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit"; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by ReutersEuropean bourses move higher; US equity futures also gain as the RTY +0.4% outperforms; NVIDIA -1% after H20 production halt.DXY holds an upward bias post-PMIs on Thursday, whilst fixed income trades steady into Fed Chair Powell.Choppy trade in the crude complex, as traders digest halts to the Druzhba pipeline; sideways trade across precious metals.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21st-23rd); Speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Hammack and Collins.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea han dado los siguientes pasos para formalizar su pacto comercial, detallando planes que podrían reducir los aranceles sobre los automóviles europeos en cuestión de semanas, a la vez que abren la puerta a nuevos descuentos potenciales para el acero y el aluminio. Los futuros de Wall Street apuntan a nuevos descensos después de una racha de ventas en las grandes tecnológicas. Los inversores se mantienen cautelosos antes de la reunión de la Reserva Federal en Jackson Hole. Las actas de la Fed muestran que la mayoría de los miembros del banco central estadounidense destacan que los riesgos inflacionistas superan las preocupaciones sobre el mercado laboral. La dirección de los mercados hoy también podría estar determinada por los PMIs, los datos de ventas de viviendas y los resultados de Walmart. El gigante de la distribución mejora sus previsiones pero alerta del aumento de los costes por los aranceles. La compañía ha comenzado a incrementar precios en algunos productos. En Europa, se impone también la cautela y la recogida de beneficios, a pesar de un buen dato de PMIs. Primer análisis de jornada en 'Cierre de Mercados' con Luis Benguerel, gestor independiente.

Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European bourses tilt lower with the region unable to benefit from better-than-feared PMIs; US equity futures are mixed.USD is mixed vs. peers, GBP is top of the G10 leaderboard post-PMI.Bonds are pressured after PMIs, lower UK borrowing fails to lift spirits ahead of the Autumn BudgetCrude is firmer as geopolitics remain in the limelight; Ukraine's Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EU Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fedʼs Bostic, Schmid, Goolsbee, Supply from US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes.FOMC Minutes from the July meeting noted a majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation was the greater risk compared with the labour market, although the meeting was conducted prior to the release of the latest NFP report with hefty downward revisions.Fed Governor Cook said she has no intention of being bullied to step down from her position because of some questions raised in a tweet by FHFA Director Pulte.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs, UK PSNB, US Weekly/Continued Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, EZ Consumer Confidence, Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (21st-23rd), Speech from Fed's Bostic, Supply from France & US, Earnings from Walmart.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Dados de PMIs, vendas de imóveis, balanço do Walmart e fala de Bostic também no radar.

Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea han dado los siguientes pasos para formalizar su pacto comercial, detallando planes que podrían reducir los aranceles sobre los automóviles europeos en cuestión de semanas, a la vez que abren la puerta a nuevos descuentos potenciales para el acero y el aluminio. Los futuros de Wall Street apuntan a nuevos descensos después de una racha de ventas en las grandes tecnológicas. Los inversores se mantienen cautelosos antes de la reunión de la Reserva Federal en Jackson Hole. Las actas de la Fed muestran que la mayoría de los miembros del banco central estadounidense destacan que los riesgos inflacionistas superan las preocupaciones sobre el mercado laboral. La dirección de los mercados hoy también podría estar determinada por los PMIs, los datos de ventas de viviendas y los resultados de Walmart. El gigante de la distribución mejora sus previsiones pero alerta del aumento de los costes por los aranceles. La compañía ha comenzado a incrementar precios en algunos productos. En Europa, se impone también la cautela y la recogida de beneficios, a pesar de un buen dato de PMIs. Primer análisis de jornada en 'Cierre de Mercados' con Luis Benguerel, gestor independiente.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the financial world is waiting for Fed boss Powell's Jackson Hole scene setting speech.In the meantime, US initial jobless claims held steady last week from the prior week at +195,000. But in fact seasonal factors should have produced a good fall. So seasonally adjusted, they are reporting an unexpected rise. The number of people on these benefits held at 1.97 mln when they usually retreat at this time of year. Analysts are flagging concerns about the lack of progress. A year ago they fell to 1.86 mln, so they are +110,000 higher now than then.US existing home sales rose, and by more than expected in July and only the second month-on-month gain of 2025. They ran at the rate of 4 mln per year, the best level since February. However, the stock of unsold homes swelled (to 19 weeks of supply), and the latest sales came with the average selling price dropping, now at US$422,400.More generally, around their overnight earnings release, the Walmart CEO noted that tariff-tax price pressure is driving up prices on a weekly basis now. However, they reckon they will get a net benefit as shoppers turn to them from others forced into even higher increases.And the Conference Board's index of leading indicators fell in July, extending its 2025 retreat and at a faster pace in the past six months than the prior six months. Keeping the pressure on this index are the retreats in new orders, and weak consumer sentiment.The Philly Fed's factory survey certainly shows the new order problem which turned negative in August. And firms report that inflation is embedding at higher levels for their input costs. There is a sense that this heartland manufacturing region is starting to go backwards again. Those in this survey 'expect growth' in the future, but they have been signaling that for all of 2025 and if that aspect turns, things will possibly feel a bit grim there.But the early August S&P Global/Markit PMIs for the US are not downbeat. On the factory side, they report a good recovery from July. On the services side a slip from a still-expanding base. They also report faster input inflation as they paid the tariff-taxes.The Canadians also reported rising input costs in their PPI release overnight.Japanese business is on the rise. Business activity across Japan's private sector expanded at the fastest rate since February midway through the third quarter, according to the August PMI survey data. The upturn was supported by a fresh increase in factory production alongside a further solid rise in activity at service providers. Total new business also expanded at the quickest rate in six months, though this was driven solely by the service sector. New export business fell at a steeper rate, however.In China, it is becoming clearer that officials are increasingly worried about strained finances at central and local government agencies, and that both firms and employees are suffering from delayed payments. Apparently, the pressures are severe, warranting President's Xi's attention. Special bond issues are underway to juice up the necessary funding.In Europe, the flash PMI reports indicate an improving situation for both manufacturers, and in the service sector. New orders increased for first time in 15 months in August. The factory PMI rose to expansion and its best in more than three years. Its services sector expanded faster, although like everything in Europe the benchmarks are not high compared to the rest of the world.Overall EU consumer sentiment held at modest levels in August, although to be direct, they are still substantially negative and remain lower than their long-run average.In Australia, the S&P Global/Markit August PMIs are quite upbeat. They said Australia's business activity growth accelerated midway through the third quarter, with faster expansions across both the manufacturing and service sectors. This was supported by higher new work inflows, including a renewed expansion in exports. In turn, Australian private sector firms raised their staffing levels at a faster rate to cope with additional workloads. Business sentiment also improved slightly from July.Australian consumer inflation expectations fell to 3.9% in August from 4.7% in July, easing for the second straight month and marking the lowest level since March.And energy regulator AEMO says more wind, solar and storage capacity was added over the past year to the electricity grid in Queensland, NSW and Victoria than in any year before. The risk of blackouts and service disruptions is fading, they say.Globally, container shipping freight rates fell -4% last week from the prior week to be -60% lower than year-ago levels, although year-ago there was extensive stress from tensions in the Red Sea. All the weakness currently is in outbound cargoes from China. Bulk cargo freight rates fell -5% over the past week, but they are still +10% higher than year-ago levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.33%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,337/oz, down -US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have risen +US$1 to just under US$63.50/bbl with the international Brent price up +US$1 to just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at just on 58.2 USc and down -10 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we have held at 90.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.2, and up +10 bps helped by a gain against the yen.The bitcoin price starts today at US$114,270 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Dados de PMIs, vendas de imóveis, balanço do Walmart e fala de Bostic também no radar.

A estrategista-chefe de investimentos do BB Private, Julia Baulé, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento:"Nos Estados Unidos, os dados de inflação ao consumidor (CPI) vieram abaixo das expectativas, enquanto o índice de preços ao produtor (PPI) surpreendeu com alta de 0,9%, elevando a inflação anual para 3,3% e reduzindo as apostas em cortes agressivos de juros pelo Fed. As vendas no varejo e a atividade industrial mostraram resiliência, reforçando a leitura de uma economia ainda aquecida. No Brasil, o governo lançou o plano Brasil Soberano em resposta às tarifas impostas pelos EUA, enquanto o setor de serviços cresceu 0,3% e o Ibovespa teve desempenho misto. O IPCA de julho veio abaixo das projeções, reforçando a expectativa de cortes na Selic ainda em 2025. Para os próximos dias, destaque para a ata do FOMC e os PMIs nos EUA, além da divulgação do IGP-M e IBC-BR no Brasil."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge

Inflation is rising, but the Fed's next moves hinge more on the labor market than the latest price prints. Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market, joins us to discuss: Inflation check: CPI roughly in line but trending higher; PPI surprised to the upside. Mark notes this likely points to a firmer core PCE later this month - but the question is persistence, not just direction. Fed priorities: Despite hotter inflation data, Powell has linked policy to labor-market balance (unemployment rate over payroll headlines). Markets overshot on cut odds after weak jobs data; expectations have since drifted back toward the Fed's guidance. Cuts & QT: Baseline view is ~50 bps of easing this year, with potential messaging around slowing/ending QT as part of reducing overall restrictiveness. Markets vs. data: Equities keep shrugging off noise (tariffs/geopolitics). Retail sales resilience underscores still-solid demand, tempering the case for aggressive cuts. U.S. dollar: The downtrend has resumed after a brief short-covering rally. For a big-picture read, watch U.S. rates more than cross-country differentials. Near-term catalysts: Expect a quieter macro week - flash PMIs and Jackson Hole (labor focus) ahead; the next jobs report is the true potential game-changer for September policy odds. Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

This week on Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe breaks down the biggest macro market movers: US economy falters - July jobs report shows just 73k new jobs, the weakest hiring since COVID, plus a massive 259k downward revision. ISM manufacturing and services PMIs point to stagflation risks.Fed rate cut bets surge -  Markets now price -58bp by year-end and -111bp over 12 months; JP Morgan expects three consecutive cuts.Trump escalates tariffs -  New 15%–100% levies on Japan, India, and chip imports, plus Nvidia/AMD paying 15% of China sales to the US government.Global slowdown signals -  Eurozone PMIs sink, German industrial production falls -1.9%, UK manufacturing contracts, and China's PPI deflation deepens.Equity concentration risk -  S&P 500's top 10 stocks now make up 40% of market cap; Nvidia alone is 8% of the index, while breadth weakens.Commodities in focus –- Gold eyes a $3,430 breakout amid Trump's Fed nomination; Bitcoin and Ethereum extend rallies; Brent crude slips on weaker Chinese demand.Stock spotlights - Palantir's sky-high PE (620) sparks bubble talk; Tesla breaks higher on strong technicals. Plus, James, James and Will cover key data ahead: US CPI, OPEC report, UK & German figures, and Chinese retail sales , all with potential to spark volatility in the weeks ahead.

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction.But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought results similar to what the derivatives market expected, maybe slightly better because of show early season strength in WMP demand and prices. Volumes sold were the highest since October 2024. And helping the tone was the fall in the NZD which boosted the rise in local currency. Overall the event ended up +0.7% in USD and up +1.5% in NZD. The industry will be satisfied the new season is off to a good start.On the butter demand front, there was a noted fall off in demand at these prices - except frim China and Middle East buyers. There is enough there to keep prices elevated, although to be fair the butter price did ease +3.8% at this event.Meanwhile, the widely watched American ISM services PMI unexpectedly fell in July 2025 from June, and the result was lower than expected. The services sector is now nearly stagnant, with seasonal and weather factors having a negative impact on business. A slowdown was most evident in the fall in new orders - activity is still operating faster than new orders are arriving so that is not great for the future. Not slowing are price increases, so all the signs of stagflation here. However, the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version told a more upbeat story.US exports fell in June from May but the fall was only minor, and from a year ago there were up +3.3%. US imports fell more sharply in the month to be -1.4% below year-ago levels. But that only results in their trade deficit being back to mif 2024 levels. Or 2023 levels. The needle has moved very little.But the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey rose in July although the move was minor. It mirrored the month's equity markets and this index also hit a 4 year high.American household debt rose by +US$185 bln in the June quarter to a new record high of US$18.4 tln. That is now 60.6% of GDP. The flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and car loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly.In India, their services PMI tells a booming story. International orders and overall sales rose sharply from the fastest increase in business activity for 11 months. However, price pressures re-accelerated, so this boom comes with inflation consequences. It's a report in sharp contrast to the lackluster American equivalents. "Someone" is quite envious of their success and is threatening sharply higher tariffs.Meanwhile Trump is signaling that their endless 'truce' with China will get another extension.And China delivered a positive data surprise yesterday, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June's nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.That is in contrast to the EU services PMI which remains weak, although it is still expanding.Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago - and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation's impact), it is up +0.7%.Join us at 10:45am for the New Zealand labour market report for June, although it might just confirm the tough operating environment we are in.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,379/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just under US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$113,625 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere.First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, although they are still up +6.6% from a year ago. The June falls were largely driven by a -22% plunge in transportation equipment orders. This same data confirmed the earlier durable goods order decrease in June of -9.4%.We are awaiting important services PMIs for July and they are expected to be much better than those for their factory sector.American economic uncertainty is now well embedded in consumer behaviour. Some brands are really suffering, and causing large writedowns.Meanwhile, American vehicle sales rose in July to an annualised rate of 16.4 mln, slightly more than expected because they got a boost ahead of expected price increases from the August 1 tariff-taxes. But the boost was relatively minor, just +3.6% ahead of the same level in July 2024.In China, parts of the country are battling heavier-than-usual rainfall. And that includes Beijing itself, a city of 22 mln. Dozens of people have died in flooding already. They are expecting 200 mm of rain to fall over the next 24 hours, on top of what they have had which created their emergency. Beijing's normal annual rainfall is 600 mm.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June's modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders - and mortgage holders - as the year unfolds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,372/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -US$1 to just under US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, down -10 bps as well.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,217 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low again at just under +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy.But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in June (and May). That would make it its highest since 2016 and exceeding anything we had in the pandemic period.Elsewhere the week will feature a raft of PMI and factory order releases. Plus, China will release key trade and inflation data.But the big economic driver for the week will be market reactions to Trump's tariff-war moves and his drive to bend both the Fed and the economic data agencies in the US to show fealty to him and avoid any negative reports. On Friday they sensed all this isn't good for the US economy and turned sharply risk averse even though corporate earnings reports have stayed positive.And that was because of Trump's response to official data he didn't like. He moved to fire the head of the data agency who reported it.Then a voting Fed official resigned, giving him a chance to twist more independence out of this crucial institution.The release of the July US labour market report showed the headline jobs gain was only +73,000 when +110,000 was expected. But worse, the June data was revised sharply lower to just +14,000 from the original +147,000. Their jobless rate edged higher to 4.2%. The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks has topped 1.8 mln now, the highest since the pandemic. Wage growth for the low-paid was unusually weak. This is a huge miss and there were sharp financial market reactions.Those are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The actual numbers are much worse, down -1,066,000 in July from June. To be fair much of that actual shrinkage is seasonal, but at 159.3 mln people employed, that is lower than in November 2024 when Trump won office.But with this July stumble in their labour market, it will be no surprise to know that the ISM factory PMI shows the same sharp retreat. In June this PMI was contracting with a 49.0 index level. It was expected to improve to a smaller contraction of 49.5. (An index level of 50 is the fulcrum between expansion and contraction.) But it went the other way, deepening its contraction to 48.0. Driving the retreat were new orders and order backlogs contracting, along with input costs increasing and exports falling. Overall, this is reporting their factory sector is contracting faster. (The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI version also reported a sharp drop info contraction in July, also largely on stagnating new order levels.)In China, like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July too. The Caixin survey isn't as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.China recognises the need to do more to stimulate internal consumption, and they are now committed to using subsidies as a key tool. Essentially they are subsidising trade-in prices to generate sales of new items. The target is to raise this subsidy level to ¥300 bln in 2025. On Friday they announced another ¥69 bln in ultra-long special treasury bonds will be issued for this purpose, the fourth tranche in the program.Another policy action announced on Friday involves their war on "involution", which they take to mean excessive or irresponsible competition involving a general race to the bottom. It was a feature of their housing crisis, and is a big worry for their car manufacturing industry. Top-down pressure to rein in this sort of behaviour is intense now. In fact, BYD is now indicating their production levels will be lower in future.However in Japan, Toyota has told suppliers that it aims to boost 2025 global production to about 10 million vehicles, underpinned by strong sales of hybrids despite concerns over the impact of American tariffs. (In the US, carmaker Ford is noting that tariffs are not helping them.)In Singapore, the latest PMI readings painted a mixed manufacturing outlook with the electronics sector in continued expansion whereas the overall manufacturing sector reverted to a marginal contraction. Declining now order levels caused the shift.In India, the growth of factory orders and production strengthened in July, driving their factory PMI up to an impressive 59.1, although that was a touch less than the result expected. Indian factories are easily the star of the show on a global basis.The EU released its July inflation data on Friday, and there were no surprises there with inflation stable at 2.0% in the Euro area. The overall level is still being restrained by falls in energy costs.Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -18 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,362/oz, up +US$14 from Saturday.American oil prices have slipped back again, now just over US$67/bbl with the international Brent price holding at US$69.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$65 and US$68.50/bbl. OPEC has agreed a big increase in oil production. And we should probably note another fall in North American oil rigs in action, now down to their lowest level since September 2021.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.2 USc and up +20 bps from Saturday but down nearly -1c from a week ago. Over all of July the fall was -180 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, unchanged from Saturday, down -60 bps for the weekThe bitcoin price started today at US$114,109 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, but down -2.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Momento RPPS - 28/07/2025Análise semanal de mercado e os impactos no mundo RPPS, com destaques:No exterior, Acordos Comerciais, balanços corporativos, PMIs e decisão de política monetária do BCE moveram os mercados na semana.No Brasil, Desdobramentos da tarifação dos EUA ao Brasil e IPCA-15 continuaram no foco dos mercados.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like the Japanese deal. And the tariff tussle between China and the US looks like it has been extended another 90 days. The pressure will be on European and Japanese companies to become 15% more efficient, but US companies will relax, allowed to be 15% less efficient in their home markets. In the intermediate term this won't be good for global US competitiveness.In a look ahead this coming week, we will get our usual New Zealand monthly business and consumer sentiment survey updates. And our big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ accentuated because it is end of quarter data. In Australia, it will be all about retail trade and inflation metrics.And Wall Street will be very busy with many more large companies releasing earnings.But the big interest rate influence will be from the central bank decisions from the US (no change expected), Japan (no change), and Canada (also no change). In all three cases the real interest will be on their commentary.Underlying all this will be July PMIs from most major economies, plus more Q2 GDP data, and many inflation updates.Over the weekend China released industrial profits data to June. They reported another slide, down -4.3% from June a year ago, the second straight monthly decline, amid persistent deflation pressures and growing trade uncertainty. State-owned enterprises experienced steeper losses while profit growth in the private sector slowed markedly. Profit gains were recorded in many sectors but one interesting one was in agriculture where profits were up more than +20%.In Russia, and as expected, they cut their policy rate by -200 bps to 18%. They signaled another cut is likely in 2025. They see disinflation on the rise, and household consumption lower. Part of that is due to the size of the diaspora of working aged men trying to avoid the death trap of the attempted invasion of Ukraine.In Europe, the ECB's survey of professional forecasters shows they don't expect much change in the coming year with things constrained by trade questions. They see inflation easing slightly, mainly due to the tariff effects, but GDP growth slightly stronger in the short term.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged up in July from June, to the highest level since May 2024. But the report was still full of cautious sentiment.In the US and as expected durable goods orders fell back in June after the May spike. Apart from the aircraft and defense sectors, it remained pretty ho-hum. New orders rose just +0.1%. Non-defense non-aircraft orders for capital goods fell when a rise was anticipated.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices have stayed softish at just on US$65/bbl with the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday and up almost +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are stable at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, unchanged from Saturday but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,210 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US President Trump said they will have straight, simple tariffs of between 15% and 50% on countries, while he added the US is in serious talks with the EU and if they agree to open up to US businesses, US will let them pay lower tariffs.European bourses continue to gain, albeit are off best levels; US futures mixed, GOOGL +3%, TSLA -6% in pre-market trade.GBP lags on soft PMIs, EUR eyes ECB and potential EU-US breakthrough.EGBs hit by trade updates, Gilts off lows post-PMIs, USTs await data.Crude rises on trade optimism and geopolitics, gold unwinds risk premium.Looking ahead, Global PMIs, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway & ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US.Earnings from LVMH, Carrefour, Michelin, Intel, American Airlines, Blackstone, Dow Chemical, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Honeywell & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Luciana Taft, analista de AFI, analiza con lupa la deuda acumulada de Reino Unido, el banco de Inglaterra, la FED, la reunión de tipos del BCE y las lecturas preliminares de los PMIs de julio

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market website, joins us for this special Sunday editorial on the KE Report. Key topics discussed: Inflation Data: A closer look at why headline inflation remains above the 2% target and why base effects suggest future readings may edge higher. Fed Policy Outlook: Despite political noise, the Fed remains patient. Marc explains why some members (like Waller) are pushing for earlier cuts and how labor market weakness - not just inflation - may drive the next move. Market Reaction: Are potential Fed cuts already priced in? Why retail buying and FOMO are fueling equity highs, and what that means for risk ahead. Tariffs & Earnings: How shifting tariffs could pressure margins, stoke inflation, and impact upcoming earnings season. Global Events: What to watch this week: flash PMIs, the ECB meeting, Tokyo CPI - and why Japan's political backdrop is worth noting.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

Send us a textDollar stays strong amid safe haven flows and inflation risks. US prel. PMIs and Powell speech to be closely monitored. ECB expected to stand pat, focus to fall on forward guidance. Pound traders await PMIs, but remain convinced about August cut. Alphabet and Tesla earnings results also on tap.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.

Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TFMetalsReport.com, joins us for a timely macro and metals discussion on this shortened holiday trading week. With Canadian and U.S. markets seeing light volume due to national holidays, Craig outlines why this week could still bring significant volatility driven by data releases and algorithmic trading.   Key Themes Discussed: Gold's Sideways Action: Craig explains why gold's recent price consolidation mirrors the late 2023 breakout setup and how many investors may be misreading this quiet strength. Silver's Quiet Strength: Silver has posted a strong quarterly close and may soon generate its own upside momentum, similar to the sharp moves seen in 2011. Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy: Despite a lack of immediate Fed rate cuts, the U.S. dollar is falling - Craig explains how markets may be front-running a policy shift under a possible Trump-nominated Fed chair. Commodity Supertrend?: From copper and platinum to silver and aluminum, industrial metals are rallying on physical supply constraints and broader reflation themes. Data-Driven Volatility Ahead: With the JOLTS report, manufacturing and services PMIs, and a U.S. jobs report all dropping this week, Craig warns these releases could trigger fast, algo-driven moves in the metals.

EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says he had constructive talks with USTR Greer; are advancing in the correct direction at "pace".US President Trump's order to increase steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% has taken effect, aside from the UK. The UK is still subject to 25% tariffs on steel, with the UK failing to get the 0% tariffs promised in the US ‘deal' implemented in time.European bourses climb higher and currently at session highs; US futures are modestly higher with some outperformance in the RTY.USD is incrementally lower/flat, whilst Antipodeans lead the G10 list.Bonds are weighed on by upward revisions to PMIs, Gilts lag after US metal measures.Crude tilts higher with US-Iran negotiations seemingly at a stalemate.Looking ahead, US Composite/Services PMI Final, US ADP National Employment, US ISM Services, BoC & NBP Policy Announcements, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including Fed's Bostic, Cook & US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Earnings from PVH & Dollar Tree.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will double US steel and aluminium tariffs from 25% to 50%, effective June 4th.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is holding back products essential to the industrial supply chain and he believes President Trump will talk to Chinese President Xi very soon, according to a CBS interview.OPEC+ members that voluntarily restricted output agreed to a 411k BPD oil production increase in July, as expected, which could be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.Chinese Official PMI data over the weekend was mixed, with manufacturing improving as expected but non-manufacturing surprisingly easing, albeit slightly.Meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegates in Istanbul is expected to take place at 11:00BST/06:00EDT in Ciragan Palace on Monday, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.APAC stocks were mostly in the red, European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, Canadian & US Manufacturing PMI Finals, Swiss GDP, ISM Manufacturing, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan, Goolsbee & Powell, Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P Futures are weakening this morning in a reaction to Moody's lowering its credit rating on the U.S after markets closed on Friday. The downgrade was not unexpected as Fitch and S&P have already lowered their ratings. President Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill advanced through the House Budget Committee on Sunday night, overcoming a major hurdle after days of internal Republican disputes. Also, President Trump is scheduled to hold a call today with Russian President Putin today at 10:00 am to discuss a path forward to end hostilities with Ukraine. The key economic event in the week ahead will be the release of S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, along with data on existing and new home sales. Upcoming earnings reports from Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will be closely watched for how these major retailers are adapting to the evolving tariff landscape and broader economic headwinds.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos comentam, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, destaque para o acordo comercial entre EUA e China. Ambos surpreenderam ao anunciar uma redução significativa de tarifas, tanto pela magnitude quanto pela agilidade da decisão, o que impulsionou os mercados globais. Nos EUA, os dados de inflação vieram abaixo do esperado (CPI, PPI e preços de importação), e os componentes do PCE também sinalizam uma pressão inflacionária mais branda — criando um ponto de partida mais favorável antes de avaliarmos os efeitos das novas tarifas. Já os dados de atividade indicaram uma leve desaceleração no início do segundo trimestre. No campo político, o debate sobre o orçamento começou a ganhar força, com republicanos pressionando por cortes no programa Medicaid. O desfecho será relevante para entendermos a trajetória fiscal norte-americana. Como mencionado acima, ao longo da semana o mercado reagiu positivamente às reduções de tarifas, com bolsas globais em alta e alguns ativos, como o ouro, passando por realização. Nos EUA, os juros subiram (vértice de 10 anos +10 bps) e as bolsas avançaram: S&P 500 +5,27%, Nasdaq +6,81%, Russell 2000 +4,46%. No Brasil, os vértices longos da curva abriram (jan/35 +27 bps, jan/31 +26 bps, jan/29 +25 bps), os curtos oscilaram menos (jan/26 -6 bps, jan/27 +2 bps). O Ibovespa subiu 1,96%, o índice de Small Caps avançou 4,17% e o real ficou estável. Por aqui, destaque para a ata do Copom, que reforçou um tom mais dovish ao apontar sinais de desaceleração via mercado de crédito, sugerindo menor disposição do comitê em seguir com o aperto monetário. No campo político, o governo reiterou sua intenção de manter estímulos fiscais em meio à queda de popularidade apontada nas pesquisas. Na próxima semana, as atenções se voltam para a votação do orçamento dos EUA, os dados de atividade de abril na China e a divulgação dos PMIs globais. Não deixe de conferir!

The world's leading economies are seeing a deceleration in manufacturing activity, although they remain in expansive territory. In the US, earnings are being revised down, largely in response to the fall in GDP growth that this implies. Meanwhile the Fed is keeping rates steady in the face of an uncertain inflation outlook, but China is cutting rates to stimulate its economy. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, analyses high frequency data of economic activity across the world. Investec Focus Radio SA

US President Trump said he is going to make a fair deal with China on trade; predicts that China will eat the tariffs.APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed; Chinese official PMIs disappointed.European equity futures indicate a contained cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher and building on yesterday's slight gains, EUR/USD is back on a 1.13 handle, AUD leads post-CPI.Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP, German Import Prices, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, GDP, CPI, Italian GDP, CPI, EZ GDP, US ADP, GDP, PCE (Q1 & for March), ECI, BoC Minutes, BoE's Lombardelli, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Albemarle, eBay, Humana, Caterpillar, International Paper, GE Healthcare, Hess, Airbus, Credit Agricole, TotalEnergies, SocGen, UBS, DHL, Kion, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Barclays, GSK, Segro & Glencore.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

En la primera hora de Capital Intereconomía repasamos toda la actualidad de la mañana en titulares con Susana Criado y Rubén Gil. Después ponemos el foco en la última hora de los mercados en Asia y Europa y repasamos lo sucedido en la última sesión de Wall Street. Para realizar el primer análisis del día contamos con Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia. Después repasamos las principales portadas de la prensa económica, nacional e internacional para contar sus titulares. Además ponemos el poco en Bitcoin: ¿Preparado para despegar?. Con Joaquím Matinero, Abogado bancario-financiero y blockchain.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o Banco Central Europeu cortou a taxa de juros em 0,25% - apesar de ter sido a magnitude esperada, o tom veio um pouco mais dove que a expectativa, sob as óticas de inflação e de atividade. Nos EUA, foram divulgados dados de varejo um pouco melhores que a expectativa - mas ainda referentes a março, antes do anúncio das tarifas; e “soft data” referentes a abril, já refletindo expectativa de contração da atividade. No âmbito de política monetária, um dos membros do Fed, Christopher J. Waller, começou a semana com falas mais dovish, focando no efeito transitório da inflação; mas o presidente da entidade, Jerome Powell, seguiu com tom mais hawk e cauteloso. ⁠ No Brasil, foi enviado ao Congresso o Projeto de Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (PLDO) de 2026, cuja notícia positiva foi a manutenção das metas fiscais de superávit até 2029. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 5 anos -22 bps), e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P -1,5%, Nasdaq -2,31% e Russell2000 +1,1%. No Brasil, os juros também fecharam (jan/35 -28 bps), o Ibovespa subiu 1,54% e, o real, 1,03%.  ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) nos EUA e na Europa; o IPCA-15 aqui no Brasil; e a reunião de primavera do FMI. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

In this episode, we're joined by Chelsea Burkett, Deputy Program Director with AECOM[00:01:13] Meet Chelsea BurkettChelsea introduces her role with Aecom and the scope of Austin ISD's massive bond program.[00:02:29] GMP 101A foundational look at GMP pricing and how it supports collaborative delivery models.[00:03:37] Early GC InvolvementWhy selecting general contractors early creates synergy and reduces surprises.[00:05:23] Community-Driven Design = Scope Creep?How community input shapes schools—and complicates budgets.[00:06:38] What's in a GMP?Chelsea walks through what the contract amendment includes and how it's executed.[00:08:49] Staying in BudgetThe bond book, voter expectations, and how cost alignment is maintained.[00:11:13] Supply Chain ChaosMaterial pricing, long lead times, and how GCs manage risk today.[00:15:24] The Open Book AdvantageFull transparency into sub bids, contingencies, and value engineering.[00:17:02] The Grading GameHow GCs and subs are evaluated—points, interviews, and all.[00:20:28] Risk, Clarifications & AllowancesUnpacking who owns what risk in complex multi-GMP projects.[00:24:07] Liquidated Damages & DeadlinesWhy hitting school opening day is non-negotiable—and risky.[00:30:12] The Art of NegotiationNavigating owner–GC–architect dynamics for long-term project health.[00:34:08] Tariffs & Steel ShockwavesThe ripple effects of global politics on your jobsite.[00:36:09] Fee StrategyHow GCs compete on cost and credentials—and when they ask for more.[00:37:03] Chelsea's Pain PointsWhy early communication is everything in GMP negotiations.[00:41:19] Use the PMIS!Advice to subs: use project management systems to get seen and heard.[00:43:14] People MatterHow staffing and turnover shape success across multiple projects.[00:46:00] Smart Strategy ≠ Low BidThe delicate dance of rewarding excellence while staying fair.[00:48:35] Megaphone MomentChelsea's call to the industry: prioritize relationships over ego.Go build something awesome!CHECK OUT THE PARTNERS THAT MAKE OUR SHOW POSSIBLE: https://www.brospodcast.com/partnersFIND US ONLINE: -Our website: https://www.brospodcast.com -LinkedIn:   / constructionbrospodcast   -Instagram:   / constructionbrospodcast    -TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@constructionbrothers?lang=en-Eddie on LinkedIn:   / eddie-c-057b3b11   -Tyler on LinkedIn:   / tylerscottcampbell  If you enjoy the podcast, please rate us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to us! Thanks for listening!

Las Bolsas europeas comienzan la semana con ganancias después de que Wall Street consiguiera cerrara la semana pasada en positivo para cortar su racha de cuatro semanas consecutivas en números rojos. Los inversores se muestran optimistas sobre la posibilidad de un acuerdo de alto al fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania en las negociaciones que continúan este lunes en Arabia Saudí. Además estarán atentos esta semana a referencias como el PIB del cuarto trimestre y el deflactor de consumo PCE de febrero en EEUU, el IFO de confianza en Alemania o los PMIs a ambos lados del Atlántico. En la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía Patricia Tomas, directora Ventas España de Alken AM; Almudena Mendaza, responsable de Generali Investments para Iberia; Juan Martín Valiente, Socio de AMCHOR Inv Strategies; y Lorenzo González, responsable de Iberia de DNB Asset Management analizan también si el plan de gasto impulsado por Alemania ha convertido a la Bolsa europea en la favorita del año

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreSPG PMI press releasehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open today after posting negative performance on Thursday. European markets have opened mixed, following mostly higher levels in Asian markets. US exceptionalism narrative retreating following bellwether Walmart earnings and weak retail sales data, alongside Trump's latest tariff warning on pharmaceuticals, chips and wood. Focus in Europe is on PMIs. No incremental news on geopolitical front, but media highlights EU challenges if US pulls back support for Ukraine.Companies mentioned: Nissan Motor, Tesla, Meta Platforms, KKR, Celsius Holdings

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European bourses are mostly higher after paring initial pressure following dire French PMIs; US futures are modestly mixed.DXY attempts to recoup lost ground, EUR weighed on by PMIs, JPY hit by Ueda remarks.BoJ Governor Ueda said if markets make abnormal moves, the BoJ stands ready to respond nimbly, such as through market operations, to smooth market moves.Bunds bolstered by soft PMI metrics; Commodities are pressured by the firmer Dollar.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers include ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Kugler & Jefferson.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research and Global Chief Economist explain why they're watching the consumer savings rate, tariffs and capital expenditures.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Andrew Sheets: And today on this special episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing what could cause our optimistic view on the economy and credit to go wrong.Andrew Sheets: It's Friday, Oct 11th at 4pm in London.Seth Carpenter: And as it turns out, I'm in London with Andrew.Andrew Sheets: So, Seth you and your global economics team have been pretty optimistic on the economy this year. And have been firmly in the soft-landing camp. And I think we've seen some oscillation in the market's view around the economy over the course of the year, but more recently, we've started to see some better data and increasing confidence in that view.So, this is actually maybe the perfect opportunity to talk about – well, what could go wrong? And so, what are some of the factors that worry you most that could derail the story?Seth Carpenter: We have been pretty constructive all along the whole hiking cycle. In fact, we've been calling for a soft- landing. And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped. But it's worth remembering part of the soft-landing call for us, especially for the US is that coming out of COVID; the economy rebounded employment rebounded, but not proportionally. And so, for a long time, up until basically now, US firms had been operating shorthanded. And so, we were pretty optimistic that even if there was something that caused a slowdown, you were not going to see a wave of layoffs. And that's usually what contributes to a recession. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs.So, I have to say, there is gotta be just a little bit more risk because businesses basically backfilled most of their vacancies. And so, if we do get a big slowdown for some reason, maybe there's more risk than there was, say, a year ago. So, what could that something be is a real question. I think the first one is just -- there's just uncertainty.And maybe, just maybe, the restraint that monetary policy has imparted -- takes a little bit longer than we realized. It's a little bit bigger than we realized, and things are slowing down. We just haven't seen the full force of it, and we just slowed down a lot more.Not a whole lot I can do about that. I feel pretty good. Spending data is good. The last jobs report was good. So, I see that as a risk that just hangs over my head, like the sword of Damocles, at all times.Andrew Sheets: And, Seth, another thing I want to talk to you about is this analysis of the economy that we do with the data that's available. And yet we recently got some pretty major revisions to the US economic picture that have changed, you know, kind of our basic understanding of what the savings rate was, you know, what some of these indicators are.How have those revisions changed what you think the picture is?Seth Carpenter: So those benchmark revisions were important. But I will say it's not as though it was just a wholesale change in what we thought we understood. Instead, the key change that happened is we had information on GDP -- gross domestic product -- which comes from a lot of spending data. There's another bit of data that's gross domestic income that in some idealized economic model version of the world, those two things are the same -- but they had been really different. And the measured income had been much lower than the measured gross domestic product, the spending data. And so, it looked like the saving rate was very, very low.But it also raised a bit of a red flag, because if the savings rate is, is really low, and all of a sudden households go back to saving the normal amount, that necessarily means they'd slow their spending a lot, and that's what causes a downturn.So, it didn't change our view, baseline view, about where the economy was, but it helped resolve a sniggling, intellectual tension in the back of the head, and it did take away at least one of the downside risks, i.e. that the savings rate was overdone, and consumers might have to pull back.But I have to say, Andrew, another thing that could go wrong, could come from policy decisions that we don't know the answer to just yet. Let you in on a little secret. Don't tell anybody I told you this; but later this year, in fact, next month, there's an election in the United States.Andrew Sheets: Oh my goodness.Seth Carpenter: One of the policies that we have tried to model is tariffs. Tariffs are a tax. And so, the normal way I think a lot of people think about what tariffs might do is if you put a tax on consumer goods coming into the country, it could make them more expensive, could make people buy less, and so you'd get a little bit less activity, a little bit higher prices.In addition to consumer goods, though, we also import a lot of intermediate goods for production, so physical goods that are used in manufacturing in the United States to produce a final output. And so, if you're putting a tax on that, you'll get less manufacturing in the United States.We also import capital goods. So, things that go into business CapEx spending in the United States. And if you put a tax on that, well, businesses will do less investment spending. So, there's a disruption to actual US production, not just US consumption that goes on. And we actually think that could be material. And we've tried to model some of the policy proposals that are out there. 60 per cent tariff on China, 10 per cent tariff on the rest of the world.None of these answers are going to be exact, none of these are going to be precise, but you get something on the order of an extra nine-tenths of a percentage point of inflation, so a pretty big reversion in inflation. But maybe closing in on one and a half percentage points of a drag on GDP – if they were all implemented at the same time in full force.So that's another place where I think we could be wrong. It could be a big hit to the economy; but that's one place where there's just lots of uncertainty, so we have to flag it as a risk to our clients. But it's not in our baseline view.Seth Carpenter: But I have to say, you've been forcing me to question my optimism, which is entirely unfair. You, sir, have been pretty bullish on the credit market. Credit spreads are, dare I say it, really tight by historical standards.And yet, that doesn't cause you to want to call for mortgage spreads to widen appreciably. It doesn't call for you to want to go really short on credit. Why are you so optimistic? Isn't there really only one direction to go?Andrew Sheets: So, there are kind of a few factors the way that we're thinking about that. So, one is we do think that the fundamental backdrop, the economic forecast that you and your team have laid out are better than average for credit -- are almost kind of ideal for what a credit investor would like.Credit likes moderation. We're forecasting a lot of moderation. And, also kind of the supply and demand dynamics of the market. What we call the technicals are better than average. There's a lot of demand for bonds. And companies, while they're getting a little bit more optimistic, and a little bit more aggressive, they're not borrowing in the kind of hand over fist type of way that usually causes more problems. And so, you should have richer than average valuations. Now, in terms of, I think, what disrupts that story, it could be, well, what if the technicals or the fundamentals are no longer good? And, you know, I think you've highlighted some scenarios where the economic forecasts could change. And if those forecasts do change, we're probably going to need to think about changing our view. And that's also true bottom up. I think if we started to see Corporates get a lot more optimistic, a lot more aggressive. You know, hubris is often the enemy of the bond investor, the credit investor. I don't think we're there yet, but I think if we started to see that, that could present a larger problem. And both, you know, fundamentally it causes companies to take on more debt, but also kind of technically, because it means a lot more supply relative to demand.Seth Carpenter: I see. I see. But I wonder, you said, if our outlook, sort of, doesn't materialize, that's a clear path to a worse outcome for your market. And I think that makes sense.But the market hasn't always agreed with us. If we think back not that long ago to August, the market had real turmoil going on because we got a very weak Non Farm Payrolls print in the United States. And people started asking again. ‘Are you sure, Seth? Doesn't this mean we're heading for a recession?' And asset markets responded. What happened to credit markets then, and what does it tell you about how credit markets might evolve going forward, even if, at the end of the day, we're still right?Andrew Sheets: Well, so I think there have been some good indications that there were parts of the market where maybe investors were pretty vulnerably positioned. Where there was more leverage, more kind of aggressiveness in how investors were leaning, and the fact that credit, yes, credit weakened, but it didn't weaken nearly as much -- I think does suggest that investors are going to this market eyes wide open. They're aware that spreads are tight. So, I think that's important.The other I think really fundamental tension that I think credit investors are dealing with -- but also I think equity investors are -- is there are certain indicators that suggest a recession is more likely than normal. Things like the yield curve being inverted or purchasing manager indices, these PMIs being below 50.But that also doesn't mean that a recession is assured by any means. And so, I do think what can challenge the market is a starting point where people see indicators that they think mean a recession is more likely, some set of weak data that would seem to confirm that thesis, and a feeling that, well, the writing's on the wall.But I think it's also meant, and I think we've seen this since September, that this is a real, in very simple terms, kind of good is good market. You know, I got asked a lot in the aftermath of some of the September numbers, internally at Morgan Stanley, 'Is it, is it too good? Was the jobs number too good for credit?'And, and my view is, because I think the market is so firmly shifted to ‘we're worried about growth,' that it's going to take a lot more good data for that fear to really recede in the market to worry about something else.Seth Carpenter: Yeah, it's funny. Some people just won't take yes for an answer. Alright, let me, let me end up with one more question for you.So when we think about the cycle, I hear as I'm sure you do from lots of clients -- aren't we, late cycle, aren't things coming to an end? Have we ever seen a cycle before where the Fed hiked this much and it didn't end in tears? And the answer is actually yes. And so, I have often been pointing people to the 1990s.1994, there was a pretty substantial rate hiking cycle that doesn't look that different from what we just lived through. The Fed stopped hiking, held out at the peak for a while, and then the economy wobbled a little bit. It did slow down, and they cut rates. And some of the wobbles, for a while at least, looked pretty serious. The Fed, as it turns out, only cut 75 basis points and then held rates steady. The economy stabilized and we had another half decade of expansion.So, I'm not saying history is going to repeat itself exactly. But I think it should be, at least from my perspective, a good example for people to have another cycle to look at where things might turn out well with the soft landing.Looking back to that period, what happened in credit markets?Andrew Sheets: So, that mid-90s soft-landing was in the modern history of credit -- call it the last 40 years -- the tightest credit spreads have ever been. That was in 1997. And they were still kind of materially tighter from today's levels.So we do have historical evidence that it can mean the market can trade tighter than here. It's also really fascinating because the 1990s were kind of two bull markets. There was a first stage that, that stage you were suggesting where, you know, the Fed started cutting; but the market wasn't really sure if it was going to stick that landing, if the economy was going to be okay. And so, you saw this period where, as the data did turn out to be okay, credit went tighter, equities went up, the two markets moved in the same direction.But then it shifted. Then, as the cycle had been extending for a while, kind of optimism returned, and even too much optimism maybe returned, and so from '97, mid-97 onwards, equities kept going up, the stock market kept rallying, credit spreads went wider, expected volatility went higher. And so, you saw that relationship diverge.And so, I do think that if we do get the '90s, if we're that lucky, and hopefully we do get that sort of scenario, it was good in a lot of ways. But I think we need to be on the watch for those two stages. We still think we're in stage one. We still think they're that stage that's more benign, but eventually benign conditions can lead to more aggressiveness.Seth Carpenter: I think that's really fair. So, we started off talking about optimism and I would like to keep it that you pointed out that the '90s required a bit of good luck and I would wholeheartedly agree with that.So, I still remain constructive, but I don't remain naive. I think there are ways for things to go wrong. And there is a ton of uncertainty ahead, so it might be a rocky ride. It's always great to get to talk to you, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: Great to talk to you as well, Seth.And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley's chief economists take stock of a resilient global economy that has weathered a recent period of market volatility, in Part I of our two-part roundtable.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. And on this special episode of the podcast, we'll hold our third roundtable discussion focusing on Morgan Stanley's global economic outlook as we enter the final quarter of 2024.I am joined today by our economics team from three regions.Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Jens Eisenschmidt: I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist.Diego Anzoategui: I'm Diego Anzoategui from the US Economics team.It's Monday, October 7th at 10 am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3 pm in London.Seth Carpenter: I have to say, a lot has happened since the last time we held this roundtable. To say the very least, we've had volatility in financial markets. But on balance, I kind of have to say the global economy has more or less performed the way we expected.The US economy is cruising towards a soft landing. The labor market maybe is a touch softer than we expected, but consumer spending has remained resilient. In Asia, Japan's reflation story is largely intact, while China is still confronting that debt deflation cycle that we've talked about. And in Europe, the tepid growth we had envisioned -- well, it's continuing. Inflation is falling, but the ECB seems to be accelerating its rate cuts. So, let's get into the details.Diego, I'm going to start with you and the US. The Fed cut interest rates in September for the first time this cycle, and they cut by 50 basis points instead of the 25 basis points that some people -- including us -- were expecting. So, the big question for you is, where does the Fed go from here?Diego Anzoategui: So, we are looking for a string of 25 basis point cuts from the Fed as long as labor markets hold up. Inflation has come down notably and we expect a normalization of interest rates ahead. But, of course, we might be wrong again. Labor markets might cool too much, and in that case, one or two additional 50 basis point cuts might happen again.Seth Carpenter: So, either the Fed glides into the soft landing or they pick up the pace and they cut faster.So, Jens, let me turn to you and pivot to Europe. You recently changed your forecast for the ECB, and you're now looking for a rate cut in October. And that's following two cuts already that the ECB has done. So, what prompted your change? Is it like what Diego said about a softer outcome prompting a faster pace of cuts. What's likely to happen next for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: That's right. We changed our ECB call. And to understand why we have to go back to September. So already at the September meeting the ECB president, Lagarde, made clear in the press conference that the bank was a little bit less concerned about structurally high services inflation that is forecast to be persistently high still for some time to come -- mainly because there was more conviction that wages would come down eventually.And so, they could really focus a little bit more, give a bit more attention to the growth side of things. Just as a reminder, the Fed has a dual mandate. So, it's growth and inflation. The ECB only has inflation. So basically, if the ECB wants to act on growth, it needs to be sure that inflation is under control. And then since September what happened is that literally every single indicator, leading indicator, for inflation was negative. We had lower oil prices, we had a stronger euro, and of course, also weaker activity in terms of the PMIs pointing to a cooling of the ongoing recovery.So, all of that led us to revise our inflation forecast, and that means that ECB will very likely already be a target mid next year. That should lead to an acceleration of the rate cut cycle. And then it's only a question, will it be already in October or in December? And here comes the September inflation print in, which was softer in particular on the core or on the services component than expected. And we think that has tilted the balance; or will tilt the balance in favor of an October rate cut.So, what we see now is October, December, January, March -- 25 basis points rate cuts by the ECB leading to a rate of 250. Then this being close to neutral, they will slow down again, quarterly rate cut pace. So, June, September, December, 25 basis points each -- leading to a final rate end of next year at 175.Seth Carpenter: Okay, got it. So, inflation has come down in most developed market economies. Central banks are starting to cut. For the Fed, there's an open question about how much strength the labor market still has and whether or not they need to do 50 basis points or 25.But I have to say, Chetan -- and I'm going to come to you because -- in Asia, we saw a lot of market turmoil in August, and that was partly prompted by the rate hike of the BoJ. So, here's a developed market economy central bank that's not cutting. In fact, they're starting to raise interest rates. So, what happened there? And what do you think happens with the BoJ going forward?Chetan Ahya: Well, Seth, in our base case, we do expect BoJ to hike by another 25 basis points in January next year. And as regards to your question on what happened in terms of the volatility that we saw in the month of August? Essentially, as the BoJ took up its first rate hike, there was a lot of concern that BoJ will go in a consecutive manner, taking up successive rate hikes. But at the end of the day, what we saw was, BoJ realizing that there is a clear endogeneity between financial conditions and their reaction function. And as that communication was clearly laid out, we saw markets calming down. And now going forward, what we think BoJ will be watching will be the data on inflation and wages.We think they would be waiting to see what happens to the inflation data in the month of November and October, i.e., whether there is a clear, rise in services inflation, which has been running at around 1.3 per cent. And they would want to see that wage pass through to services inflation is continuing.And then secondly, they will want to see what is happening to the wage expectations from the workers in the next round of spring wage negotiations. The demand from workers will be clear by the end of this year, so sometime in December. And therefore, we think BoJ will look at that information and then take up a rate hike in the month of January next year.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so if I step back for a second, even if there are a few parts of the puzzle that still need to fall into place, it sounds to me like you're saying the Japan reflation story is still intact. Is that fair?Chetan Ahya: That's right. We think that, you know, the comment from the prime minister that came out a few days back; he's very clear that he wants to see a situation where Japan gets rid of deflation. So, we think that the policymakers are fully lined up to ensure that the reflation story remains intact.Seth Carpenter: That's super helpful and it just absolutely contrasts with what we've been saying about China, where they have sort of the opposite story. There's been a debt deflation cycle that you and the Chinese team have really been highlighting for a long time now, talking about the challenges for policy.We did get some news out of Beijing in terms of policy stimulus. Could you and break down for us what happened there and whether or not you think that's enough to really shift China's trajectory away from this debt deflation cycle?Chetan Ahya: Yes, Seth, so essentially, we got three things from Chinese policy makers. Number one, they took up big monetary policy easing. Number two, they announced a package to support the equity markets. And number three, they announced some measures to support the property market.Now we think that these measures are a positive and particularly the property market measures will be helpful. But in terms of real impediment for China's reflation story, we think that the key need of the hour is to take up aggressive fiscal easing to boost consumption. Monetary policy easing is helpful, but it's not really the key impediment to the reflation path.Seth Carpenter: All right, so if I wanted to see the glass as half full, I would say, look at this! Beijing policymakers have turned the corners. They're acknowledging that there's some policy impetus that needs to be put into place. But if I wanted to see the glass as half empty, I could take away from what you just said, that there just needs to be more, maybe fiscal stimulus to directly promote household spending.Is that that fair?Chetan Ahya: That's absolutely right. What's happening in China is that there has been a big structural adjustment in the property sector because now the total population is declining. And so therefore there is a big demand hole that is being left by the weakness in housing sector.Ideally, what they should be doing, as I was mentioning earlier, [is] that they should be taking a big fiscal easing to support consumption spending. But so far what we've been seeing is that they've been trying to fill that demand hole with more supply in form of investment in manufacturing and infrastructure sector.And unfortunately, that's been actually making the deflation challenge more complex. So going forward, we think that, you know, we should be watching out what they do in terms of fiscal stimulus. There was a comment in the Politburo statement that they will take up fiscal easing. We suspect that the timing of that fiscal policy announcement could be by end of this month alongside National People's Congress meeting. And so, what will be the size of fiscal stimulus will be important to watch as well.Currently, we think it could be one to two trillion RMB. But in our work that we did in terms of what is the scale of fiscal stimulus that is needed to boost consumption, we estimate that it should be somewhere around a 10 trillion RMB spread over two years.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Thanks, Chetan. Super helpful.Gentlemen, I have to say, we might have to stop here for the day. But tomorrow, I want to get [to] another topic, which is to say, the upcoming US election. It's got huge implications for the macroeconomy in the US and around the world. And I think we're going to have to touch on it. But for now, we'll end the conversation here.And thank you, the listeners, for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.