Podcasts about pmis

Kia ora,Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the equity markets and the bond markets are flashing quite different signals, and equity markets seem quite out of step with the operating economic data. When these vary, there is usually a reckoning, and that usually (but not always) results in an equity correction.But first up today, the overnight dairy auction brought results similar to what the derivatives market expected, maybe slightly better because of show early season strength in WMP demand and prices. Volumes sold were the highest since October 2024. And helping the tone was the fall in the NZD which boosted the rise in local currency. Overall the event ended up +0.7% in USD and up +1.5% in NZD. The industry will be satisfied the new season is off to a good start.On the butter demand front, there was a noted fall off in demand at these prices - except frim China and Middle East buyers. There is enough there to keep prices elevated, although to be fair the butter price did ease +3.8% at this event.Meanwhile, the widely watched American ISM services PMI unexpectedly fell in July 2025 from June, and the result was lower than expected. The services sector is now nearly stagnant, with seasonal and weather factors having a negative impact on business. A slowdown was most evident in the fall in new orders - activity is still operating faster than new orders are arriving so that is not great for the future. Not slowing are price increases, so all the signs of stagflation here. However, the internationally-benchmarked S&P Global/Markit version told a more upbeat story.US exports fell in June from May but the fall was only minor, and from a year ago there were up +3.3%. US imports fell more sharply in the month to be -1.4% below year-ago levels. But that only results in their trade deficit being back to mif 2024 levels. Or 2023 levels. The needle has moved very little.But the RCM/TIPP sentiment survey rose in July although the move was minor. It mirrored the month's equity markets and this index also hit a 4 year high.American household debt rose by +US$185 bln in the June quarter to a new record high of US$18.4 tln. That is now 60.6% of GDP. The flow of household debt into serious delinquency was mixed across debt types, with credit card and car loans holding steady, student loans continuing to rise, and mortgages edging up slightly.In India, their services PMI tells a booming story. International orders and overall sales rose sharply from the fastest increase in business activity for 11 months. However, price pressures re-accelerated, so this boom comes with inflation consequences. It's a report in sharp contrast to the lackluster American equivalents. "Someone" is quite envious of their success and is threatening sharply higher tariffs.Meanwhile Trump is signaling that their endless 'truce' with China will get another extension.And China delivered a positive data surprise yesterday, with the private Caixin services PMI rising and by more than expected. (Remember the official NBS services PMI eased lower.) The Caixin China General Services PMI rose in July from June's nine-month low with the fastest expansion in the services sector since May 2024, and with new business growing at the strongest pace in a year.That is in contrast to the EU services PMI which remains weak, although it is still expanding.Quarterly June data out today in Australia shows household spending rose at a good rate, up +5.1% from the same month a year ago - and the rate it rose from March was good too. Discretionary spending was strong. Western Australia was the only jurisdiction where spending fell. On a volume basis (after inflation's impact), it is up +0.7%.Join us at 10:45am for the New Zealand labour market report for June, although it might just confirm the tough operating environment we are in.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.20%, up +1 bp from yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,379/oz, up +US$7 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down another -US$1 to just under US$65.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$67.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and little-changed from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 91.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 66.9, down -10 bps.The bitcoin price started today at US$113,625 and down -1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/-1.2%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news tough economic news keeps coming, even during this lazy August vacation period in the northern hemisphere.First, in the US factory orders were expected to retreat in June, consistent with the labour market and PMI signals - and they did. They were down -4.8% from May, although they are still up +6.6% from a year ago. The June falls were largely driven by a -22% plunge in transportation equipment orders. This same data confirmed the earlier durable goods order decrease in June of -9.4%.We are awaiting important services PMIs for July and they are expected to be much better than those for their factory sector.American economic uncertainty is now well embedded in consumer behaviour. Some brands are really suffering, and causing large writedowns.Meanwhile, American vehicle sales rose in July to an annualised rate of 16.4 mln, slightly more than expected because they got a boost ahead of expected price increases from the August 1 tariff-taxes. But the boost was relatively minor, just +3.6% ahead of the same level in July 2024.In China, parts of the country are battling heavier-than-usual rainfall. And that includes Beijing itself, a city of 22 mln. Dozens of people have died in flooding already. They are expecting 200 mm of rain to fall over the next 24 hours, on top of what they have had which created their emergency. Beijing's normal annual rainfall is 600 mm.In Australia, the Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge survey result brought an unwelcome surprise. It surged +0.9% in July, the steepest rise since December 2023 and a sharp rebound from June's modest +0.1% increase. The RBA is unlikely to be impressed because even if inflation is within range it seems to be testing the upper end of that range and a rate cut could well push it up out-of-range. Still, financial markets are pricing in a full -25 bps cut for Tuesday, August 12 when the RBA next meets. And they have priced in two more by the end of 2025. At this time, given inflation is proving harder to lick, that seems unlikely. And in turn there could be many disappointed market traders - and mortgage holders - as the year unfolds.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.19%, down -3 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,372/oz, up +US$10 from yesterday.American oil prices have slipped back again, down -US$1 to just under US$66.50/bbl with the international Brent price just over US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is at 59 USc and down -20 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67, down -10 bps as well.The bitcoin price started today at US$115,217 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low again at just under +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news US President Trump is "making progress" is bending independent agencies (BLS, the US Fed) to respond to what is best for him, rather than the US economy.But the week ahead will all be focused locally on Wednesdays Household Labour Force survey results for July. Our jobless rate is expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.1% in June (and May). That would make it its highest since 2016 and exceeding anything we had in the pandemic period.Elsewhere the week will feature a raft of PMI and factory order releases. Plus, China will release key trade and inflation data.But the big economic driver for the week will be market reactions to Trump's tariff-war moves and his drive to bend both the Fed and the economic data agencies in the US to show fealty to him and avoid any negative reports. On Friday they sensed all this isn't good for the US economy and turned sharply risk averse even though corporate earnings reports have stayed positive.And that was because of Trump's response to official data he didn't like. He moved to fire the head of the data agency who reported it.Then a voting Fed official resigned, giving him a chance to twist more independence out of this crucial institution.The release of the July US labour market report showed the headline jobs gain was only +73,000 when +110,000 was expected. But worse, the June data was revised sharply lower to just +14,000 from the original +147,000. Their jobless rate edged higher to 4.2%. The number of people unemployed for at least 27 weeks has topped 1.8 mln now, the highest since the pandemic. Wage growth for the low-paid was unusually weak. This is a huge miss and there were sharp financial market reactions.Those are the seasonally adjusted numbers. The actual numbers are much worse, down -1,066,000 in July from June. To be fair much of that actual shrinkage is seasonal, but at 159.3 mln people employed, that is lower than in November 2024 when Trump won office.But with this July stumble in their labour market, it will be no surprise to know that the ISM factory PMI shows the same sharp retreat. In June this PMI was contracting with a 49.0 index level. It was expected to improve to a smaller contraction of 49.5. (An index level of 50 is the fulcrum between expansion and contraction.) But it went the other way, deepening its contraction to 48.0. Driving the retreat were new orders and order backlogs contracting, along with input costs increasing and exports falling. Overall, this is reporting their factory sector is contracting faster. (The internationally benchmarked S&P Global/Markit factory PMI version also reported a sharp drop info contraction in July, also largely on stagnating new order levels.)In China, like the official China factory PMIs had signaled, the independent Caixin PMI also signaled that their factory sector went backwards in July too. The Caixin survey isn't as negative as the official survey, but it now shows the overall sector in contraction. The Caixin survey tends to account better for mid-sized private manufacturers whereas the official survey includes the very large state-owned enterprises.China recognises the need to do more to stimulate internal consumption, and they are now committed to using subsidies as a key tool. Essentially they are subsidising trade-in prices to generate sales of new items. The target is to raise this subsidy level to ¥300 bln in 2025. On Friday they announced another ¥69 bln in ultra-long special treasury bonds will be issued for this purpose, the fourth tranche in the program.Another policy action announced on Friday involves their war on "involution", which they take to mean excessive or irresponsible competition involving a general race to the bottom. It was a feature of their housing crisis, and is a big worry for their car manufacturing industry. Top-down pressure to rein in this sort of behaviour is intense now. In fact, BYD is now indicating their production levels will be lower in future.However in Japan, Toyota has told suppliers that it aims to boost 2025 global production to about 10 million vehicles, underpinned by strong sales of hybrids despite concerns over the impact of American tariffs. (In the US, carmaker Ford is noting that tariffs are not helping them.)In Singapore, the latest PMI readings painted a mixed manufacturing outlook with the electronics sector in continued expansion whereas the overall manufacturing sector reverted to a marginal contraction. Declining now order levels caused the shift.In India, the growth of factory orders and production strengthened in July, driving their factory PMI up to an impressive 59.1, although that was a touch less than the result expected. Indian factories are easily the star of the show on a global basis.The EU released its July inflation data on Friday, and there were no surprises there with inflation stable at 2.0% in the Euro area. The overall level is still being restrained by falls in energy costs.Australian producer prices rose 3.4% over the past year to June, down from a 3.7% rate in the year to March, and down from a 4.8% rate in the year to June 2024. Cost pressures are still high, but they are easing, even if slowly.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.22%, up +1 bps from Saturday, down -18 bps for the week.The price of gold will start today at US$3,362/oz, up +US$14 from Saturday.American oil prices have slipped back again, now just over US$67/bbl with the international Brent price holding at US$69.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$65 and US$68.50/bbl. OPEC has agreed a big increase in oil production. And we should probably note another fall in North American oil rigs in action, now down to their lowest level since September 2021.The Kiwi dollar is at 59.2 USc and up +20 bps from Saturday but down nearly -1c from a week ago. Over all of July the fall was -180 bps. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.5 AUc. Against the euro we are down -40 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.1, unchanged from Saturday, down -60 bps for the weekThe bitcoin price started today at US$114,109 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, but down -2.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Momento RPPS - 28/07/2025Análise semanal de mercado e os impactos no mundo RPPS, com destaques:No exterior, Acordos Comerciais, balanços corporativos, PMIs e decisão de política monetária do BCE moveram os mercados na semana.No Brasil, Desdobramentos da tarifação dos EUA ao Brasil e IPCA-15 continuaram no foco dos mercados.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news - despite the US tariff news flooding the zone - the rest of the world economy is find a way to carry on.But first we should note that a 15% tariff deal seems to have been concluded between the EU and the US but one that excludes drugs and aluminium. It looks very like the Japanese deal. And the tariff tussle between China and the US looks like it has been extended another 90 days. The pressure will be on European and Japanese companies to become 15% more efficient, but US companies will relax, allowed to be 15% less efficient in their home markets. In the intermediate term this won't be good for global US competitiveness.In a look ahead this coming week, we will get our usual New Zealand monthly business and consumer sentiment survey updates. And our big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ accentuated because it is end of quarter data. In Australia, it will be all about retail trade and inflation metrics.And Wall Street will be very busy with many more large companies releasing earnings.But the big interest rate influence will be from the central bank decisions from the US (no change expected), Japan (no change), and Canada (also no change). In all three cases the real interest will be on their commentary.Underlying all this will be July PMIs from most major economies, plus more Q2 GDP data, and many inflation updates.Over the weekend China released industrial profits data to June. They reported another slide, down -4.3% from June a year ago, the second straight monthly decline, amid persistent deflation pressures and growing trade uncertainty. State-owned enterprises experienced steeper losses while profit growth in the private sector slowed markedly. Profit gains were recorded in many sectors but one interesting one was in agriculture where profits were up more than +20%.In Russia, and as expected, they cut their policy rate by -200 bps to 18%. They signaled another cut is likely in 2025. They see disinflation on the rise, and household consumption lower. Part of that is due to the size of the diaspora of working aged men trying to avoid the death trap of the attempted invasion of Ukraine.In Europe, the ECB's survey of professional forecasters shows they don't expect much change in the coming year with things constrained by trade questions. They see inflation easing slightly, mainly due to the tariff effects, but GDP growth slightly stronger in the short term.The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany edged up in July from June, to the highest level since May 2024. But the report was still full of cautious sentiment.In the US and as expected durable goods orders fell back in June after the May spike. Apart from the aircraft and defense sectors, it remained pretty ho-hum. New orders rose just +0.1%. Non-defense non-aircraft orders for capital goods fell when a rise was anticipated.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.39%, unchanged from Saturday.The price of gold will start today at US$3,336/oz, down -US$2 from Saturday.American oil prices have stayed softish at just on US$65/bbl with the international Brent price is still at just under US$68.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc and up +10 bps from Saturday and up almost +½c from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.6 AUc. Against the euro we are stable at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 67.7, unchanged from Saturday but up +20 bps from a week ago.The bitcoin price starts today at US$119,210 and up +2.4% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

US President Trump said they will have straight, simple tariffs of between 15% and 50% on countries, while he added the US is in serious talks with the EU and if they agree to open up to US businesses, US will let them pay lower tariffs.European bourses continue to gain, albeit are off best levels; US futures mixed, GOOGL +3%, TSLA -6% in pre-market trade.GBP lags on soft PMIs, EUR eyes ECB and potential EU-US breakthrough.EGBs hit by trade updates, Gilts off lows post-PMIs, USTs await data.Crude rises on trade optimism and geopolitics, gold unwinds risk premium.Looking ahead, Global PMIs, US Jobless Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speakers including RBNZ's Conway & ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US.Earnings from LVMH, Carrefour, Michelin, Intel, American Airlines, Blackstone, Dow Chemical, Nasdaq, Union Pacific, Honeywell & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Luciana Taft, analista de AFI, analiza con lupa la deuda acumulada de Reino Unido, el banco de Inglaterra, la FED, la reunión de tipos del BCE y las lecturas preliminares de los PMIs de julio

Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and editor of the Marc to Market website, joins us for this special Sunday editorial on the KE Report. Key topics discussed: Inflation Data: A closer look at why headline inflation remains above the 2% target and why base effects suggest future readings may edge higher. Fed Policy Outlook: Despite political noise, the Fed remains patient. Marc explains why some members (like Waller) are pushing for earlier cuts and how labor market weakness - not just inflation - may drive the next move. Market Reaction: Are potential Fed cuts already priced in? Why retail buying and FOMO are fueling equity highs, and what that means for risk ahead. Tariffs & Earnings: How shifting tariffs could pressure margins, stoke inflation, and impact upcoming earnings season. Global Events: What to watch this week: flash PMIs, the ECB meeting, Tokyo CPI - and why Japan's political backdrop is worth noting.   Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market.

Send us a textDollar stays strong amid safe haven flows and inflation risks. US prel. PMIs and Powell speech to be closely monitored. ECB expected to stand pat, focus to fall on forward guidance. Pound traders await PMIs, but remain convinced about August cut. Alphabet and Tesla earnings results also on tap.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

RenMac dives into the July 4th weekend with a fresh look at the payroll surprise, Fed expectations, the global PMI paradox, and whether the market can stomach high rates. Neil unpacks sluggish job growth beneath the headline beat, Jeff outlines the capex-driven cyclicals leading the rally, and the crew debates whether PMIs and yield curves have lost their forecasting mojo. Plus: why financials might shine, how real yields shape allocation, and yes—cucumber gin makes another cameo.

South Korea’s manufacturing activity contracts for the fifth straight month, with the PMI inching up to 48.7 in June but still below the expansion threshold. Meanwhile, Japan’s manufacturing sector sees its first growth in over a year as output rises, yet ongoing uncertainty over US tariffs weighs on demand and exports. However, trade tensions escalate as US-Japan tariff talks face renewed challenges with fresh threats from Washington. On the corporate front, City Developments expands its reach into Europe through a new hotel loyalty partnership, while semiconductor firm UMS Integration pursues a secondary listing on Bursa Malaysia amid sector volatility. On Market View, Alexandra Parada speaks to Dan Chang, Trading Representative at PhillipCapital, to discuss the latest market movements.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TFMetalsReport.com, joins us for a timely macro and metals discussion on this shortened holiday trading week. With Canadian and U.S. markets seeing light volume due to national holidays, Craig outlines why this week could still bring significant volatility driven by data releases and algorithmic trading.   Key Themes Discussed: Gold's Sideways Action: Craig explains why gold's recent price consolidation mirrors the late 2023 breakout setup and how many investors may be misreading this quiet strength. Silver's Quiet Strength: Silver has posted a strong quarterly close and may soon generate its own upside momentum, similar to the sharp moves seen in 2011. Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy: Despite a lack of immediate Fed rate cuts, the U.S. dollar is falling - Craig explains how markets may be front-running a policy shift under a possible Trump-nominated Fed chair. Commodity Supertrend?: From copper and platinum to silver and aluminum, industrial metals are rallying on physical supply constraints and broader reflation themes. Data-Driven Volatility Ahead: With the JOLTS report, manufacturing and services PMIs, and a U.S. jobs report all dropping this week, Craig warns these releases could trigger fast, algo-driven moves in the metals.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the US budget debate has financial markets on edge.But first up today, the Chicago PMI did not report the expected modest bounceback in June from the very weak May result. In fact is stayed in a severe contraction, disappointing everyone involved. It's been nearly three years since they have had any regular expansion and 2025 looks like it is shaping up the be the worst of the three.The Dallas Fed's factory survey for June was weak as well featuring shrinking new order levels. At least it was little-changed from May.As you read this, the US Senate is debating, and about to vote, on the big Trump budget bill. After years of complaining about US deficit spending and refusing to move the debt ceiling law, they are weighing whether to accede to Trump's demand to give him a free pass on both, including 'hiding' US$3.8 tln of tax cut costs. If they pass the budget, it is likely the bond market will deliver a thumbs down response, one that will affect global financial markets.On the US tariff trade bullying, there are few negotiations going well at present, for any of the parties involved.In Canada, they seem to have conceded the digital services tax issue to try and make progress on bigger issues. But the DST is still a live issue in the UK-US talks.Meanwhile, things are softening in India too. Their industrial production was up +1.2% in May from the same month in 2024, their weakest expansion in nine months and well weaker than expected.In China, there were no surprises and little movement in their official PMIs for June. Their factory sector contracted very marginally - again - and the services sector expanded marginally, also again. Basically they describe an economy marking time. But also one resilient to the trade shocks thrown at it which were designed to throw it off balance. That just hasn't happened, yet anyway.German inflation came in at 2.0% in June, a touch less than anticipated and little-different from April and May's 2.1% level. As small as it was, they weren't expecting a dip. Food prices there rose a modest +2.0% but keeping a lid on other rises was the -3.5% drop in energy prices.In Australia, Cotality/CoreLogic said its Home Value Index rose +0.6% in June from May, up marginally from the prior month but it is the strongest monthly gain since June 2024. Improved market sentiment in most major cities was behind the firming and active first home buyers are behind that. On a yearly basis, national home values climbed 2.7%. Meanwhile, rental growth continued to ease, with national rents up +3.4% over the past 12 months, the slowest annual increase since early 2021.Global air cargo demand rose +2.2% in May from a year ago, up +3.0% for international airfreight. The Asia/Pacific volumes were up a very healthy +8.2% on the same basis, no doubt related to the rush to beat US tariff deadlines. These overall volumes would have been better if the North American components hadn't been so weak (+-5.8%).Meanwhile, May air passenger travel rose +5.0%, up +6.7% for international travel and up +13.3% in the Asia/Pacific region. The only region to decline was North America (-0.5%) and mostly because of weak domestic travel.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.23%, and down -4 bps from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at US$3,2952/oz, and up +US$19 from yesterday.American oil prices are marginally softer from yesterday at just under US$65/bbl while the international Brent price is down -US$1, now just over US$66.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now just on 60.9 USc, up +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 92.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 51.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 68.2 and +10 bps firmer than yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$107,683 and up +0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.9%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Semaine #27. Chaque lundi matin nous servons le SILEXpresso, un condensé vocal de 5mn sur nos vues macro et allocation.  Retrouvez également le SILEXpresso, et bien plus encore, sur l'app SPARK :https://go.silex-partners.com/download/my_SPARK_appHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Ouça o que movimentou o mercado e a economia nesta segunda-feira.

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will remain a focal point as investors watch for signs of further escalation. Central banks will also be in the spotlight, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled to testify to Congress, following last week's Fed decision. The economic highlights this week will be flash PMIs for June, which are out on Monday and will provide an important pulse check of the global growth picture.

Send us a textOngoing Israel-Iran tensions to keep risk sentiment in check. US core PCE and consumption data to offer much-needed distraction. CPI readings also due in Canada. Flash PMIs for June in the spotlight too amid tariff chaos.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD

EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic says he had constructive talks with USTR Greer; are advancing in the correct direction at "pace".US President Trump's order to increase steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% has taken effect, aside from the UK. The UK is still subject to 25% tariffs on steel, with the UK failing to get the 0% tariffs promised in the US ‘deal' implemented in time.European bourses climb higher and currently at session highs; US futures are modestly higher with some outperformance in the RTY.USD is incrementally lower/flat, whilst Antipodeans lead the G10 list.Bonds are weighed on by upward revisions to PMIs, Gilts lag after US metal measures.Crude tilts higher with US-Iran negotiations seemingly at a stalemate.Looking ahead, US Composite/Services PMI Final, US ADP National Employment, US ISM Services, BoC & NBP Policy Announcements, Fed Beige Book, Speakers including Fed's Bostic, Cook & US Treasury Secretary Bessent. Earnings from PVH & Dollar Tree.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will double US steel and aluminium tariffs from 25% to 50%, effective June 4th.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said China is holding back products essential to the industrial supply chain and he believes President Trump will talk to Chinese President Xi very soon, according to a CBS interview.OPEC+ members that voluntarily restricted output agreed to a 411k BPD oil production increase in July, as expected, which could be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.Chinese Official PMI data over the weekend was mixed, with manufacturing improving as expected but non-manufacturing surprisingly easing, albeit slightly.Meeting between Russian and Ukrainian delegates in Istanbul is expected to take place at 11:00BST/06:00EDT in Ciragan Palace on Monday, according to a Turkish Foreign Ministry source.APAC stocks were mostly in the red, European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.1% on Friday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, Canadian & US Manufacturing PMI Finals, Swiss GDP, ISM Manufacturing, Speakers including BoE's Mann, ECB President Lagarde, Fed's Logan, Goolsbee & Powell, Supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the Americans seem to be making a concerted effort to adopt a stagflation policy. The USD is falling toward a three year low, gold is rising again, as are US benchmark interest rates.But first, the week ahead will feature central bank rate decisions from Canada (expect a hold at 2.75%), the ECB (-25 bps to 2.15%) and India (-25 bps to 5.75%). And the week will end with the US non-farm payrolls report (+130,000 and extending the ho-hum trend).But the week will be dominated by factory and service sector PMIs, closely watched for the consequences of trade war activity. More damage came from the US over the weekend with the doubling of steel tariffs, from 25% to 50%. These are certain to make the US steel industry even less competitive globally, embedding higher producer costs for American factories and higher prices for its customers.We can see that from the latest ISM factory PMI for May, where a small contraction is now taking place, and the cost pressures are still very high. The final S&P/Markit May factory PMI recorded the most cost pressure since 2022, but a tiny expansion in this one.China released its official PMIs over the weekend, with the factory version contracting much less, and their services little-changed in a tiny expansion. Inflation pressures aren't evident here. The US trade pressure may be preventing China's economy from growing much but it isn't pushing it into a contraction. And so far, Beijing has resisted Trump's request for a phone call with Xi.And there were May PMIs out for Japan (contracting less), Canada,(holding a sharp contraction) Taiwan (contracting less), Korea (small contraction, but stable) Singapore (stable small contraction) and Australia (stable but expanding a bit less) on Monday. So this set isn't yet showing much change, but the trade war does seem to be embedding stagnation. Inflation doesn't seem to be much of a problem here, it is only the US that is getting them both.Stagnation without inflation does allow central banks to try a rate cut remedy - a remedy not available to the Americans.In China they are applying both monetary (lower rates) and fiscal policies (more spending) to stabilise their situation. Beijing is spending big to counter the downward pressure on its economy. As a result, the country's broad fiscal deficit expanded at its quickest clip since 2023 in the first four months of 2025, reaching a -¥2.7 tln (-NZ$630 bln) deficit in the period, almost 60% more than in the same period in 2024.They need all of that because it is pretty clear their real estate sector slump isn't anywhere near over yet, despite all the official help for it.We should also note that it is a holiday in China today, for Dragon Boat Festival.India reported Q1-2025 GDP outcomes, claiming a heady expansion of +7.4% from a year earlier, far better than the +6.7% expected and the +6.4% expansion in Q4-2024. This expansion was led by both the construction sector, and consumer spending.And Canada also reported an expanding economy in Q1-2025, gaining +0.5% in the quarter to be +2.2% higher for the year. Both these indicators of economic activity are better than analysts had expected. Of course these are only of historical interest because they pre-date the tariff-war actions of the US that started in April.Back in the US, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey recovered its early month drop in the second half of the month, ending similar to the April level. The pause in the tariff war and the hope this would ease inflation pressures during the survey period was said to be behind the mood change. Still, this level is very pessimistic, -24% lower than year-ago levels.In Australia, job ad growth has turned into a decline, with the number of job ads dropping -1.2% in May from April, when they fell a downwardly revised -0.3%. Year on year they are down -5.7% although they remained +14% higher than pre-pandemic levels.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.46%, and up +6 bps from Friday. The price of gold will start today at US$3,375/oz, and up +US$86 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$2 in the US at just under US$63/bbl and the international Brent price is just under US$65/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 60.2 USc, a +50 bps rise from yesterday at this time. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at just on 92.9 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 52.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.2 and up +30 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$104,272 and down -0.9% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.0%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Semaine #22. Chaque lundi matin nous servons le SILEXpresso, un condensé vocal de 5mn sur nos vues macro et allocation.  Retrouvez également le SILEXpresso, et bien plus encore, sur l'app SPARK :https://go.silex-partners.com/download/my_SPARK_appHosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Análisis con César Sánchez-Grande, de Renta 4 Banco, para hablar del sentimiento del mercado condicionado por el proyecto fiscal que se está negociando en EEUU y tras la rebaja de calificación por parte de Moody's. Para César Sánchez-Grande no es un problema solo de la Administración Trump, ya ha pasado en otras administraciones y la rebaja de Moody's ya estaba descontada. Ha sido la tercera agencia de calificación que lo ha hecho al pensar que estos cambios de política fiscal pueden llevar a EEUU a mayores déficits, ingresos fiscales insuficientes aunque, desde Renta 4 Banco, pensamos que el impacto en los mercados es bastante limitado. En este escenario, estamos viendo cierta rotación de EEUU a Europa pero creemos que es algo marginal y que no va a mantenerse en el largo plazo. Por otra parte, esta semana es una semana de pocas referencias macro, salvo los IPC del Reino Unido y de Japón y los PMIs que se publicarán el jueves. Sobre el comportamiento de las bolsas, le preguntamos a César Sánchez-Grande si cree que están algo sobrecompradas y dice que sí, que quizás los mercados deberían actuar con más prudencia a la espera de ver cómo se desarrollan las negociaciones comerciales. En cuanto a la bolsa española, el Ibex 35 recupera los 14.300 puntos, nuevos máximos desde 2008. Desde Renta 4 Banco nuestro objetivo son los 15.200 puntos para finales de año, lo que supone un potencial del 6%. Detrás del repunte, el buen tono de dos de los sectores con más peso del selectivo: bancos y utilities. Por último le preguntamos por Indra que hoy está siendo de los mejores valores del Ibex por los planes de rearme de Europa. A pesar de este buen comportamiento, en Renta 4 Banco han decidido hacer ca y sustituirla en la cartera de 5 grandes por un ETF del Ibex hasta que busquen otro valor para incluirlo con Almirall, Iberdrola, Unicaja y Cellnex.

S&P Futures are weakening this morning in a reaction to Moody's lowering its credit rating on the U.S after markets closed on Friday. The downgrade was not unexpected as Fitch and S&P have already lowered their ratings. President Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill advanced through the House Budget Committee on Sunday night, overcoming a major hurdle after days of internal Republican disputes. Also, President Trump is scheduled to hold a call today with Russian President Putin today at 10:00 am to discuss a path forward to end hostilities with Ukraine. The key economic event in the week ahead will be the release of S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs, along with data on existing and new home sales. Upcoming earnings reports from Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's will be closely watched for how these major retailers are adapting to the evolving tariff landscape and broader economic headwinds.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos comentam, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, destaque para o acordo comercial entre EUA e China. Ambos surpreenderam ao anunciar uma redução significativa de tarifas, tanto pela magnitude quanto pela agilidade da decisão, o que impulsionou os mercados globais. Nos EUA, os dados de inflação vieram abaixo do esperado (CPI, PPI e preços de importação), e os componentes do PCE também sinalizam uma pressão inflacionária mais branda — criando um ponto de partida mais favorável antes de avaliarmos os efeitos das novas tarifas. Já os dados de atividade indicaram uma leve desaceleração no início do segundo trimestre. No campo político, o debate sobre o orçamento começou a ganhar força, com republicanos pressionando por cortes no programa Medicaid. O desfecho será relevante para entendermos a trajetória fiscal norte-americana. Como mencionado acima, ao longo da semana o mercado reagiu positivamente às reduções de tarifas, com bolsas globais em alta e alguns ativos, como o ouro, passando por realização. Nos EUA, os juros subiram (vértice de 10 anos +10 bps) e as bolsas avançaram: S&P 500 +5,27%, Nasdaq +6,81%, Russell 2000 +4,46%. No Brasil, os vértices longos da curva abriram (jan/35 +27 bps, jan/31 +26 bps, jan/29 +25 bps), os curtos oscilaram menos (jan/26 -6 bps, jan/27 +2 bps). O Ibovespa subiu 1,96%, o índice de Small Caps avançou 4,17% e o real ficou estável. Por aqui, destaque para a ata do Copom, que reforçou um tom mais dovish ao apontar sinais de desaceleração via mercado de crédito, sugerindo menor disposição do comitê em seguir com o aperto monetário. No campo político, o governo reiterou sua intenção de manter estímulos fiscais em meio à queda de popularidade apontada nas pesquisas. Na próxima semana, as atenções se voltam para a votação do orçamento dos EUA, os dados de atividade de abril na China e a divulgação dos PMIs globais. Não deixe de conferir!

The world's leading economies are seeing a deceleration in manufacturing activity, although they remain in expansive territory. In the US, earnings are being revised down, largely in response to the fall in GDP growth that this implies. Meanwhile the Fed is keeping rates steady in the face of an uncertain inflation outlook, but China is cutting rates to stimulate its economy. Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, analyses high frequency data of economic activity across the world. Investec Focus Radio SA

US President Trump said he is going to make a fair deal with China on trade; predicts that China will eat the tariffs.APAC stocks failed to sustain the positive handover from Wall St and traded mixed; Chinese official PMIs disappointed.European equity futures indicate a contained cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher and building on yesterday's slight gains, EUR/USD is back on a 1.13 handle, AUD leads post-CPI.Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP, German Import Prices, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, GDP, CPI, Italian GDP, CPI, EZ GDP, US ADP, GDP, PCE (Q1 & for March), ECI, BoC Minutes, BoE's Lombardelli, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood, Qualcomm, Albemarle, eBay, Humana, Caterpillar, International Paper, GE Healthcare, Hess, Airbus, Credit Agricole, TotalEnergies, SocGen, UBS, DHL, Kion, Volkswagen, Mercedes Benz, Barclays, GSK, Segro & Glencore.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

En la primera hora de Capital Intereconomía repasamos toda la actualidad de la mañana en titulares con Susana Criado y Rubén Gil. Después ponemos el foco en la última hora de los mercados en Asia y Europa y repasamos lo sucedido en la última sesión de Wall Street. Para realizar el primer análisis del día contamos con Eduardo Bolinches, analista de Invertia. Después repasamos las principales portadas de la prensa económica, nacional e internacional para contar sus titulares. Además ponemos el poco en Bitcoin: ¿Preparado para despegar?. Con Joaquím Matinero, Abogado bancario-financiero y blockchain.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o Banco Central Europeu cortou a taxa de juros em 0,25% - apesar de ter sido a magnitude esperada, o tom veio um pouco mais dove que a expectativa, sob as óticas de inflação e de atividade. Nos EUA, foram divulgados dados de varejo um pouco melhores que a expectativa - mas ainda referentes a março, antes do anúncio das tarifas; e “soft data” referentes a abril, já refletindo expectativa de contração da atividade. No âmbito de política monetária, um dos membros do Fed, Christopher J. Waller, começou a semana com falas mais dovish, focando no efeito transitório da inflação; mas o presidente da entidade, Jerome Powell, seguiu com tom mais hawk e cauteloso. ⁠ No Brasil, foi enviado ao Congresso o Projeto de Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias (PLDO) de 2026, cuja notícia positiva foi a manutenção das metas fiscais de superávit até 2029. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 5 anos -22 bps), e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P -1,5%, Nasdaq -2,31% e Russell2000 +1,1%. No Brasil, os juros também fecharam (jan/35 -28 bps), o Ibovespa subiu 1,54% e, o real, 1,03%.  ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) nos EUA e na Europa; o IPCA-15 aqui no Brasil; e a reunião de primavera do FMI. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

In this episode, we're joined by Chelsea Burkett, Deputy Program Director with AECOM[00:01:13] Meet Chelsea BurkettChelsea introduces her role with Aecom and the scope of Austin ISD's massive bond program.[00:02:29] GMP 101A foundational look at GMP pricing and how it supports collaborative delivery models.[00:03:37] Early GC InvolvementWhy selecting general contractors early creates synergy and reduces surprises.[00:05:23] Community-Driven Design = Scope Creep?How community input shapes schools—and complicates budgets.[00:06:38] What's in a GMP?Chelsea walks through what the contract amendment includes and how it's executed.[00:08:49] Staying in BudgetThe bond book, voter expectations, and how cost alignment is maintained.[00:11:13] Supply Chain ChaosMaterial pricing, long lead times, and how GCs manage risk today.[00:15:24] The Open Book AdvantageFull transparency into sub bids, contingencies, and value engineering.[00:17:02] The Grading GameHow GCs and subs are evaluated—points, interviews, and all.[00:20:28] Risk, Clarifications & AllowancesUnpacking who owns what risk in complex multi-GMP projects.[00:24:07] Liquidated Damages & DeadlinesWhy hitting school opening day is non-negotiable—and risky.[00:30:12] The Art of NegotiationNavigating owner–GC–architect dynamics for long-term project health.[00:34:08] Tariffs & Steel ShockwavesThe ripple effects of global politics on your jobsite.[00:36:09] Fee StrategyHow GCs compete on cost and credentials—and when they ask for more.[00:37:03] Chelsea's Pain PointsWhy early communication is everything in GMP negotiations.[00:41:19] Use the PMIS!Advice to subs: use project management systems to get seen and heard.[00:43:14] People MatterHow staffing and turnover shape success across multiple projects.[00:46:00] Smart Strategy ≠ Low BidThe delicate dance of rewarding excellence while staying fair.[00:48:35] Megaphone MomentChelsea's call to the industry: prioritize relationships over ego.Go build something awesome!CHECK OUT THE PARTNERS THAT MAKE OUR SHOW POSSIBLE: https://www.brospodcast.com/partnersFIND US ONLINE: -Our website: https://www.brospodcast.com -LinkedIn:   / constructionbrospodcast   -Instagram:   / constructionbrospodcast    -TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@constructionbrothers?lang=en-Eddie on LinkedIn:   / eddie-c-057b3b11   -Tyler on LinkedIn:   / tylerscottcampbell  If you enjoy the podcast, please rate us on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to us! Thanks for listening!

AIB's Chief Economist David McNamara and AIB Treasury's Jason Rehill discuss the latest AIB Ireland PMI reports including the positive picture for manufacturing despite looming threats, very strong growth in services, the market reactions following the US tariff announcements and how tariffs might impact Irish industries.Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Las Bolsas europeas comienzan la semana con ganancias después de que Wall Street consiguiera cerrara la semana pasada en positivo para cortar su racha de cuatro semanas consecutivas en números rojos. Los inversores se muestran optimistas sobre la posibilidad de un acuerdo de alto al fuego entre Rusia y Ucrania en las negociaciones que continúan este lunes en Arabia Saudí. Además estarán atentos esta semana a referencias como el PIB del cuarto trimestre y el deflactor de consumo PCE de febrero en EEUU, el IFO de confianza en Alemania o los PMIs a ambos lados del Atlántico. En la tertulia de mercados de Capital Intereconomía Patricia Tomas, directora Ventas España de Alken AM; Almudena Mendaza, responsable de Generali Investments para Iberia; Juan Martín Valiente, Socio de AMCHOR Inv Strategies; y Lorenzo González, responsable de Iberia de DNB Asset Management analizan también si el plan de gasto impulsado por Alemania ha convertido a la Bolsa europea en la favorita del año

Nossos sócios Gabriel Abelheira, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, o Fed optou por manter a taxa de juros inalterada, revisando, para esse ano, a atividade para baixo, e a inflação para cima. Na conferência de imprensa, o Powell trouxe viés mais dove, principalmente ao mencionar expectativa de transitoriedade sobre os efeitos inflacionários das tarifas anunciadas pelo governo. No Reino Unido, o BoE também manteve o juro inalterado, como esperado. Com relação aos dados econômicos, o destaque ficou para as vendas no varejo nos EUA, que surpreenderam para cima. Por fim, foi aprovado na Alemanha o pacote fiscal anunciado no início do mês. ⁠ No Brasil, o destaque foi o Copom, que elevou a taxa de juros em 1%, como esperado, sinalizando alta de menor magnitude na próxima reunião. De maneira geral, o comunicado foi interpretado como mais hawk que a expectativa. Ainda, a semana foi movimentada no Congresso, com a aprovação do Orçamento, o anúncio do projeto de isenção do IR e as compensações sugeridas, novidades para o programa “Minha Casa, Minha Vida” e outras medidas expansionistas. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 5 anos -9 bps), e as bolsas tiveram desempenho marginalmente positivo – S&P500 +0,51%, Nasdaq +0,25% e Russell2000 +0,63%. No Brasil, o jan/27 abriu 22 bps, o Ibovespa valorizou 2,63% e, o real, 0,24%. ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) e inflação de março na Europa, inflação nos EUA e, por aqui, ata do Copom, Relatório Trimestral de Inflação e IPCA-15. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

If you are in any way interested in precious metals, check out what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Walmart the latest to issue a warning. SPG's PMIs crack, particularly services. Consumer confidence tanks. And they call it "uncertainty."Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreSPG PMI press releasehttps://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/c3a10cc3461d4d8aa1758082292e7358https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

US equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open today after posting negative performance on Thursday. European markets have opened mixed, following mostly higher levels in Asian markets. US exceptionalism narrative retreating following bellwether Walmart earnings and weak retail sales data, alongside Trump's latest tariff warning on pharmaceuticals, chips and wood. Focus in Europe is on PMIs. No incremental news on geopolitical front, but media highlights EU challenges if US pulls back support for Ukraine.Companies mentioned: Nissan Motor, Tesla, Meta Platforms, KKR, Celsius Holdings

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

European bourses are mostly higher after paring initial pressure following dire French PMIs; US futures are modestly mixed.DXY attempts to recoup lost ground, EUR weighed on by PMIs, JPY hit by Ueda remarks.BoJ Governor Ueda said if markets make abnormal moves, the BoJ stands ready to respond nimbly, such as through market operations, to smooth market moves.Bunds bolstered by soft PMI metrics; Commodities are pressured by the firmer Dollar.Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, Canadian Retail Sales, Speakers include ECB's Lane, BoC's Macklem & Fed's Kugler & Jefferson.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo.⁠ ⁠ No cenário internacional, foram divulgados alguns dados americanos de inflação – apesar do CPI vir bastante acima da expectativa, com composição ruim, o resultado dos componentes que integram o PCE – tanto do CPI, quanto do PPI – levaram a revisões baixistas das projeções do mercado. Também foram divulgados dados de atividade, com destaque para as vendas no varejo, que sinalizaram atividade mais fraca. No âmbito político, o Trump indicou nova postergação das tarifas, e o Xi Jinping planeja presidir um simpósio para se aproximar do setor privado, principalmente empresas de tecnologia. Ainda, foram divulgadas diversas notícias sobre um possível acordo de paz entre Rússia e Ucrânia. No Brasil, os dados de atividade (PMS – serviços, PMC – comércio) vieram abaixo do esperado. Foi divulgada nova pesquisa Datafolha, sinalizando forte queda da aprovação do presidente Lula, que também falou ao longo da semana e levantou dúvidas a respeito do cenário eleitoral de 2026. ⁠ Nos EUA, os juros terminaram a semana fechando marginalmente, e as bolsas tiveram bom desempenho – S&P500 +1,47% e Nasdaq +2,9%. No Brasil, o jan/27 fechou 49 bps, o Ibovespa subiu 2,89% e o real valorizou 1,94%. ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Na próxima semana será importante acompanhar os dados de atividade (PMIs) nos EUA e na Europa; a fala do Waller, membro do Fed, e a divulgação da última minuta do FOMC; e as decisões dos bancos centrais da Austrália e da Nova Zelândia. ⁠ ⁠Não deixe de conferir!⁠

The United States has stood out as the only major economy experiencing significant expansion amid Global PMIs. The economic health indicator was a mixed bag for manufacturing and service sectors. Meanwhile, luxury brand Burberry has soared 10% on its quarterly update. And back home, why are things are looking up for the red meat sector? Devon Funds Management representative Greg Smith joins the show to talk all things business. LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European bourses mostly firmer, whilst US futures tilt a little lower; Burberry +15% post-results.DXY in the doldrums as Trump waters down tariff rhetoric and calls for lower interest rates.USTs a little firmer, Bunds pressured by EZ PMIs and BoJ Governor Ueda spurs JGB action.Base metals soar amid Trump's China commentary and a weaker dollar.BoJ hiked rates by 25bps to 0.50%, as expected via an 8-1 vote with Nakamura the dissenter. Governor Ueda said the Board has judged that spring wage talks will result in strong hikes again this year. No preset idea on future adjustments. No preconceived ideas around the scope/timing of the next rate rise. Next rate hike will depend less on economic growth but more on price moves.Looking ahead, US PMIs, Speakers include ECB's Cipollone. Earnings from Verizon, American Express.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses give back early morning strength; US futures gain with modest outperformance in the NQ.USD began the session on a weaker footing but is now flat.USTs firmer after China Manufacturing PMI and ahead of their own metricsCrude on a firmer footing while base metals are capped by sub-par Chinese PMIs.Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, Manufacturing PMI, Refunding Announcement.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks saw an uninspiring start to the week following the mixed session on Wall Street on Friday and ahead of this week's risk events including the final FOMC, BoJ, and BoE meetings of the year.Moody's cut France's rating to "Aa3" from "Aa2", outlook stable, in an unscheduled rating revision, citing political fragmentation.South Korean MPs have successfully voted to impeach President Yoon in their second attempt. Yoon was suspended from official duties on Saturday while PM Han is to continue as acting president, according to Yonhap.Bitcoin surged to fresh all-time highs above USD 106,000 and propped up the broader crypto market, with Ethereum rising above USD 4,000.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, EZ Labour Costs, ECB President Lagarde, de Guindos, Schnabel, and BoC's Macklem.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The latest data support our call for resilient, albeit divergent, growth. The PMIs for last month show global GDP tracking a strong, above potential pace with some welcome improvement for global industry. The US and China stand out to the upside, while Europe is the weak link. Despite resilient growth and sticky, elevated inflation, central banks seem inclined to continue their easing cycles. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This podcast was recorded on 6 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences. Speakers: Joseph Lupton Nora Szentivanyi This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.

Join OANDA Senior Market Analysts & podcast guest Nick Syiek (TraderNick) as they review the latest market news and moves. MarketPulse provides up-to-the-minute analysis on forex, commodities and indices from around the world. MarketPulse is an award-winning news site that delivers round-the-clock commentary on a wide range of asset classes, as well as in-depth insights into the major economic trends and events that impact the markets. The content produced on this site is for general information purposes only and should not be construed to be advice, invitation, inducement, offer, recommendation or solicitation for investment or disinvestment in any financial instrument. Opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of OANDA or any of its affiliates, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

Our Head of Corporate Credit Research and Global Chief Economist explain why they're watching the consumer savings rate, tariffs and capital expenditures.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley.Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Andrew Sheets: And today on this special episode of the podcast, we'll be discussing what could cause our optimistic view on the economy and credit to go wrong.Andrew Sheets: It's Friday, Oct 11th at 4pm in London.Seth Carpenter: And as it turns out, I'm in London with Andrew.Andrew Sheets: So, Seth you and your global economics team have been pretty optimistic on the economy this year. And have been firmly in the soft-landing camp. And I think we've seen some oscillation in the market's view around the economy over the course of the year, but more recently, we've started to see some better data and increasing confidence in that view.So, this is actually maybe the perfect opportunity to talk about – well, what could go wrong? And so, what are some of the factors that worry you most that could derail the story?Seth Carpenter: We have been pretty constructive all along the whole hiking cycle. In fact, we've been calling for a soft- landing. And if anything, where we were wrong with our forecast so far is that things have turned out even better than we dare hoped. But it's worth remembering part of the soft-landing call for us, especially for the US is that coming out of COVID; the economy rebounded employment rebounded, but not proportionally. And so, for a long time, up until basically now, US firms had been operating shorthanded. And so, we were pretty optimistic that even if there was something that caused a slowdown, you were not going to see a wave of layoffs. And that's usually what contributes to a recession. A slowdown, then people get laid off, laid off people spend less, the economy slows down more, and it snowballs.So, I have to say, there is gotta be just a little bit more risk because businesses basically backfilled most of their vacancies. And so, if we do get a big slowdown for some reason, maybe there's more risk than there was, say, a year ago. So, what could that something be is a real question. I think the first one is just -- there's just uncertainty.And maybe, just maybe, the restraint that monetary policy has imparted -- takes a little bit longer than we realized. It's a little bit bigger than we realized, and things are slowing down. We just haven't seen the full force of it, and we just slowed down a lot more.Not a whole lot I can do about that. I feel pretty good. Spending data is good. The last jobs report was good. So, I see that as a risk that just hangs over my head, like the sword of Damocles, at all times.Andrew Sheets: And, Seth, another thing I want to talk to you about is this analysis of the economy that we do with the data that's available. And yet we recently got some pretty major revisions to the US economic picture that have changed, you know, kind of our basic understanding of what the savings rate was, you know, what some of these indicators are.How have those revisions changed what you think the picture is?Seth Carpenter: So those benchmark revisions were important. But I will say it's not as though it was just a wholesale change in what we thought we understood. Instead, the key change that happened is we had information on GDP -- gross domestic product -- which comes from a lot of spending data. There's another bit of data that's gross domestic income that in some idealized economic model version of the world, those two things are the same -- but they had been really different. And the measured income had been much lower than the measured gross domestic product, the spending data. And so, it looked like the saving rate was very, very low.But it also raised a bit of a red flag, because if the savings rate is, is really low, and all of a sudden households go back to saving the normal amount, that necessarily means they'd slow their spending a lot, and that's what causes a downturn.So, it didn't change our view, baseline view, about where the economy was, but it helped resolve a sniggling, intellectual tension in the back of the head, and it did take away at least one of the downside risks, i.e. that the savings rate was overdone, and consumers might have to pull back.But I have to say, Andrew, another thing that could go wrong, could come from policy decisions that we don't know the answer to just yet. Let you in on a little secret. Don't tell anybody I told you this; but later this year, in fact, next month, there's an election in the United States.Andrew Sheets: Oh my goodness.Seth Carpenter: One of the policies that we have tried to model is tariffs. Tariffs are a tax. And so, the normal way I think a lot of people think about what tariffs might do is if you put a tax on consumer goods coming into the country, it could make them more expensive, could make people buy less, and so you'd get a little bit less activity, a little bit higher prices.In addition to consumer goods, though, we also import a lot of intermediate goods for production, so physical goods that are used in manufacturing in the United States to produce a final output. And so, if you're putting a tax on that, you'll get less manufacturing in the United States.We also import capital goods. So, things that go into business CapEx spending in the United States. And if you put a tax on that, well, businesses will do less investment spending. So, there's a disruption to actual US production, not just US consumption that goes on. And we actually think that could be material. And we've tried to model some of the policy proposals that are out there. 60 per cent tariff on China, 10 per cent tariff on the rest of the world.None of these answers are going to be exact, none of these are going to be precise, but you get something on the order of an extra nine-tenths of a percentage point of inflation, so a pretty big reversion in inflation. But maybe closing in on one and a half percentage points of a drag on GDP – if they were all implemented at the same time in full force.So that's another place where I think we could be wrong. It could be a big hit to the economy; but that's one place where there's just lots of uncertainty, so we have to flag it as a risk to our clients. But it's not in our baseline view.Seth Carpenter: But I have to say, you've been forcing me to question my optimism, which is entirely unfair. You, sir, have been pretty bullish on the credit market. Credit spreads are, dare I say it, really tight by historical standards.And yet, that doesn't cause you to want to call for mortgage spreads to widen appreciably. It doesn't call for you to want to go really short on credit. Why are you so optimistic? Isn't there really only one direction to go?Andrew Sheets: So, there are kind of a few factors the way that we're thinking about that. So, one is we do think that the fundamental backdrop, the economic forecast that you and your team have laid out are better than average for credit -- are almost kind of ideal for what a credit investor would like.Credit likes moderation. We're forecasting a lot of moderation. And, also kind of the supply and demand dynamics of the market. What we call the technicals are better than average. There's a lot of demand for bonds. And companies, while they're getting a little bit more optimistic, and a little bit more aggressive, they're not borrowing in the kind of hand over fist type of way that usually causes more problems. And so, you should have richer than average valuations. Now, in terms of, I think, what disrupts that story, it could be, well, what if the technicals or the fundamentals are no longer good? And, you know, I think you've highlighted some scenarios where the economic forecasts could change. And if those forecasts do change, we're probably going to need to think about changing our view. And that's also true bottom up. I think if we started to see Corporates get a lot more optimistic, a lot more aggressive. You know, hubris is often the enemy of the bond investor, the credit investor. I don't think we're there yet, but I think if we started to see that, that could present a larger problem. And both, you know, fundamentally it causes companies to take on more debt, but also kind of technically, because it means a lot more supply relative to demand.Seth Carpenter: I see. I see. But I wonder, you said, if our outlook, sort of, doesn't materialize, that's a clear path to a worse outcome for your market. And I think that makes sense.But the market hasn't always agreed with us. If we think back not that long ago to August, the market had real turmoil going on because we got a very weak Non Farm Payrolls print in the United States. And people started asking again. ‘Are you sure, Seth? Doesn't this mean we're heading for a recession?' And asset markets responded. What happened to credit markets then, and what does it tell you about how credit markets might evolve going forward, even if, at the end of the day, we're still right?Andrew Sheets: Well, so I think there have been some good indications that there were parts of the market where maybe investors were pretty vulnerably positioned. Where there was more leverage, more kind of aggressiveness in how investors were leaning, and the fact that credit, yes, credit weakened, but it didn't weaken nearly as much -- I think does suggest that investors are going to this market eyes wide open. They're aware that spreads are tight. So, I think that's important.The other I think really fundamental tension that I think credit investors are dealing with -- but also I think equity investors are -- is there are certain indicators that suggest a recession is more likely than normal. Things like the yield curve being inverted or purchasing manager indices, these PMIs being below 50.But that also doesn't mean that a recession is assured by any means. And so, I do think what can challenge the market is a starting point where people see indicators that they think mean a recession is more likely, some set of weak data that would seem to confirm that thesis, and a feeling that, well, the writing's on the wall.But I think it's also meant, and I think we've seen this since September, that this is a real, in very simple terms, kind of good is good market. You know, I got asked a lot in the aftermath of some of the September numbers, internally at Morgan Stanley, 'Is it, is it too good? Was the jobs number too good for credit?'And, and my view is, because I think the market is so firmly shifted to ‘we're worried about growth,' that it's going to take a lot more good data for that fear to really recede in the market to worry about something else.Seth Carpenter: Yeah, it's funny. Some people just won't take yes for an answer. Alright, let me, let me end up with one more question for you.So when we think about the cycle, I hear as I'm sure you do from lots of clients -- aren't we, late cycle, aren't things coming to an end? Have we ever seen a cycle before where the Fed hiked this much and it didn't end in tears? And the answer is actually yes. And so, I have often been pointing people to the 1990s.1994, there was a pretty substantial rate hiking cycle that doesn't look that different from what we just lived through. The Fed stopped hiking, held out at the peak for a while, and then the economy wobbled a little bit. It did slow down, and they cut rates. And some of the wobbles, for a while at least, looked pretty serious. The Fed, as it turns out, only cut 75 basis points and then held rates steady. The economy stabilized and we had another half decade of expansion.So, I'm not saying history is going to repeat itself exactly. But I think it should be, at least from my perspective, a good example for people to have another cycle to look at where things might turn out well with the soft landing.Looking back to that period, what happened in credit markets?Andrew Sheets: So, that mid-90s soft-landing was in the modern history of credit -- call it the last 40 years -- the tightest credit spreads have ever been. That was in 1997. And they were still kind of materially tighter from today's levels.So we do have historical evidence that it can mean the market can trade tighter than here. It's also really fascinating because the 1990s were kind of two bull markets. There was a first stage that, that stage you were suggesting where, you know, the Fed started cutting; but the market wasn't really sure if it was going to stick that landing, if the economy was going to be okay. And so, you saw this period where, as the data did turn out to be okay, credit went tighter, equities went up, the two markets moved in the same direction.But then it shifted. Then, as the cycle had been extending for a while, kind of optimism returned, and even too much optimism maybe returned, and so from '97, mid-97 onwards, equities kept going up, the stock market kept rallying, credit spreads went wider, expected volatility went higher. And so, you saw that relationship diverge.And so, I do think that if we do get the '90s, if we're that lucky, and hopefully we do get that sort of scenario, it was good in a lot of ways. But I think we need to be on the watch for those two stages. We still think we're in stage one. We still think they're that stage that's more benign, but eventually benign conditions can lead to more aggressiveness.Seth Carpenter: I think that's really fair. So, we started off talking about optimism and I would like to keep it that you pointed out that the '90s required a bit of good luck and I would wholeheartedly agree with that.So, I still remain constructive, but I don't remain naive. I think there are ways for things to go wrong. And there is a ton of uncertainty ahead, so it might be a rocky ride. It's always great to get to talk to you, Andrew.Andrew Sheets: Great to talk to you as well, Seth.And thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Morgan Stanley's chief economists take stock of a resilient global economy that has weathered a recent period of market volatility, in Part I of our two-part roundtable.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. And on this special episode of the podcast, we'll hold our third roundtable discussion focusing on Morgan Stanley's global economic outlook as we enter the final quarter of 2024.I am joined today by our economics team from three regions.Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Jens Eisenschmidt: I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist.Diego Anzoategui: I'm Diego Anzoategui from the US Economics team.It's Monday, October 7th at 10 am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 3 pm in London.Seth Carpenter: I have to say, a lot has happened since the last time we held this roundtable. To say the very least, we've had volatility in financial markets. But on balance, I kind of have to say the global economy has more or less performed the way we expected.The US economy is cruising towards a soft landing. The labor market maybe is a touch softer than we expected, but consumer spending has remained resilient. In Asia, Japan's reflation story is largely intact, while China is still confronting that debt deflation cycle that we've talked about. And in Europe, the tepid growth we had envisioned -- well, it's continuing. Inflation is falling, but the ECB seems to be accelerating its rate cuts. So, let's get into the details.Diego, I'm going to start with you and the US. The Fed cut interest rates in September for the first time this cycle, and they cut by 50 basis points instead of the 25 basis points that some people -- including us -- were expecting. So, the big question for you is, where does the Fed go from here?Diego Anzoategui: So, we are looking for a string of 25 basis point cuts from the Fed as long as labor markets hold up. Inflation has come down notably and we expect a normalization of interest rates ahead. But, of course, we might be wrong again. Labor markets might cool too much, and in that case, one or two additional 50 basis point cuts might happen again.Seth Carpenter: So, either the Fed glides into the soft landing or they pick up the pace and they cut faster.So, Jens, let me turn to you and pivot to Europe. You recently changed your forecast for the ECB, and you're now looking for a rate cut in October. And that's following two cuts already that the ECB has done. So, what prompted your change? Is it like what Diego said about a softer outcome prompting a faster pace of cuts. What's likely to happen next for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: That's right. We changed our ECB call. And to understand why we have to go back to September. So already at the September meeting the ECB president, Lagarde, made clear in the press conference that the bank was a little bit less concerned about structurally high services inflation that is forecast to be persistently high still for some time to come -- mainly because there was more conviction that wages would come down eventually.And so, they could really focus a little bit more, give a bit more attention to the growth side of things. Just as a reminder, the Fed has a dual mandate. So, it's growth and inflation. The ECB only has inflation. So basically, if the ECB wants to act on growth, it needs to be sure that inflation is under control. And then since September what happened is that literally every single indicator, leading indicator, for inflation was negative. We had lower oil prices, we had a stronger euro, and of course, also weaker activity in terms of the PMIs pointing to a cooling of the ongoing recovery.So, all of that led us to revise our inflation forecast, and that means that ECB will very likely already be a target mid next year. That should lead to an acceleration of the rate cut cycle. And then it's only a question, will it be already in October or in December? And here comes the September inflation print in, which was softer in particular on the core or on the services component than expected. And we think that has tilted the balance; or will tilt the balance in favor of an October rate cut.So, what we see now is October, December, January, March -- 25 basis points rate cuts by the ECB leading to a rate of 250. Then this being close to neutral, they will slow down again, quarterly rate cut pace. So, June, September, December, 25 basis points each -- leading to a final rate end of next year at 175.Seth Carpenter: Okay, got it. So, inflation has come down in most developed market economies. Central banks are starting to cut. For the Fed, there's an open question about how much strength the labor market still has and whether or not they need to do 50 basis points or 25.But I have to say, Chetan -- and I'm going to come to you because -- in Asia, we saw a lot of market turmoil in August, and that was partly prompted by the rate hike of the BoJ. So, here's a developed market economy central bank that's not cutting. In fact, they're starting to raise interest rates. So, what happened there? And what do you think happens with the BoJ going forward?Chetan Ahya: Well, Seth, in our base case, we do expect BoJ to hike by another 25 basis points in January next year. And as regards to your question on what happened in terms of the volatility that we saw in the month of August? Essentially, as the BoJ took up its first rate hike, there was a lot of concern that BoJ will go in a consecutive manner, taking up successive rate hikes. But at the end of the day, what we saw was, BoJ realizing that there is a clear endogeneity between financial conditions and their reaction function. And as that communication was clearly laid out, we saw markets calming down. And now going forward, what we think BoJ will be watching will be the data on inflation and wages.We think they would be waiting to see what happens to the inflation data in the month of November and October, i.e., whether there is a clear, rise in services inflation, which has been running at around 1.3 per cent. And they would want to see that wage pass through to services inflation is continuing.And then secondly, they will want to see what is happening to the wage expectations from the workers in the next round of spring wage negotiations. The demand from workers will be clear by the end of this year, so sometime in December. And therefore, we think BoJ will look at that information and then take up a rate hike in the month of January next year.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so if I step back for a second, even if there are a few parts of the puzzle that still need to fall into place, it sounds to me like you're saying the Japan reflation story is still intact. Is that fair?Chetan Ahya: That's right. We think that, you know, the comment from the prime minister that came out a few days back; he's very clear that he wants to see a situation where Japan gets rid of deflation. So, we think that the policymakers are fully lined up to ensure that the reflation story remains intact.Seth Carpenter: That's super helpful and it just absolutely contrasts with what we've been saying about China, where they have sort of the opposite story. There's been a debt deflation cycle that you and the Chinese team have really been highlighting for a long time now, talking about the challenges for policy.We did get some news out of Beijing in terms of policy stimulus. Could you and break down for us what happened there and whether or not you think that's enough to really shift China's trajectory away from this debt deflation cycle?Chetan Ahya: Yes, Seth, so essentially, we got three things from Chinese policy makers. Number one, they took up big monetary policy easing. Number two, they announced a package to support the equity markets. And number three, they announced some measures to support the property market.Now we think that these measures are a positive and particularly the property market measures will be helpful. But in terms of real impediment for China's reflation story, we think that the key need of the hour is to take up aggressive fiscal easing to boost consumption. Monetary policy easing is helpful, but it's not really the key impediment to the reflation path.Seth Carpenter: All right, so if I wanted to see the glass as half full, I would say, look at this! Beijing policymakers have turned the corners. They're acknowledging that there's some policy impetus that needs to be put into place. But if I wanted to see the glass as half empty, I could take away from what you just said, that there just needs to be more, maybe fiscal stimulus to directly promote household spending.Is that that fair?Chetan Ahya: That's absolutely right. What's happening in China is that there has been a big structural adjustment in the property sector because now the total population is declining. And so therefore there is a big demand hole that is being left by the weakness in housing sector.Ideally, what they should be doing, as I was mentioning earlier, [is] that they should be taking a big fiscal easing to support consumption spending. But so far what we've been seeing is that they've been trying to fill that demand hole with more supply in form of investment in manufacturing and infrastructure sector.And unfortunately, that's been actually making the deflation challenge more complex. So going forward, we think that, you know, we should be watching out what they do in terms of fiscal stimulus. There was a comment in the Politburo statement that they will take up fiscal easing. We suspect that the timing of that fiscal policy announcement could be by end of this month alongside National People's Congress meeting. And so, what will be the size of fiscal stimulus will be important to watch as well.Currently, we think it could be one to two trillion RMB. But in our work that we did in terms of what is the scale of fiscal stimulus that is needed to boost consumption, we estimate that it should be somewhere around a 10 trillion RMB spread over two years.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Thanks, Chetan. Super helpful.Gentlemen, I have to say, we might have to stop here for the day. But tomorrow, I want to get [to] another topic, which is to say, the upcoming US election. It's got huge implications for the macroeconomy in the US and around the world. And I think we're going to have to touch on it. But for now, we'll end the conversation here.And thank you, the listeners, for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.