Podcasts about pmis

European futures are set to start in the green after snapping a four-week winning streak. Investors are anticipating UK employment and inflation data, flash PMIs and the latest FOMC meeting minutes later this week. The U.S.-Iran MOU expires later today with the impasse forcing President Trump to concede Americans will have to contend with higher fuel prices. Heatwaves cause wildfires in Belgium while the level of the Rhine in Germany falls to a new record low. Berkshire Hathaway increases its stake in Alphabet. The tech giant is now its third-largest holding. Form 13F filings in the U.S. reveal a big tech ‘tug-of-war' among institutional investors. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

US President Trump announced over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to making a rapid deal (Brent -4.7%).Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review.Japan's Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention with the US on Friday and won't hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US (USD/JPY -0.3%).US equity futures gain given the slump in energy prices; BMY (+7% pre-market) benefits on an FT report of a potential AZN merger.DXY unchanged, JPY outperforms while EUR little changed following downside revisions to manufacturing PMIs.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), and US Treasury Financing Estimates. Earnings from Palantir and ONSemi.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are now in the peak vacation season in the northern hemisphere with policy activity relatively low. But US petrol costs are high in this summer driving season. Trump continues to claim he is negotiating with Iran. Iran continues to deny any talks are taking place. Still, this stalemate is a relatively peaceful one, but one that leaves Iran and Oman holding all the cards in the Hormuz Strait. In the US, their widely-watched ISM factory PMI came in slightly better than expected with a good expansion, one marginally stronger than the S&P Global PMI result we noted yesterday. This ISM version recorded stronger new order flows and prices increasing at a slower pace. In China, their top leadership is 'vacationing' as usual at the beach resort of Beidaihe. Oddly, Xi doesn't appear to be there. Over the weekend we noted that China's official factory PMIs all turned down, and into contraction territory. The private S&P Global version has been less gloomy in the past, but yesterday's release also shows a sector slipping in July from June. But at least this alternate version is not yet contracting. And they feature rising new order levels, which is promising. India's July factory PMI is still expanding at a solid pace, but that paces has now slipped to its lowest in five years. New order intakes are rising but slower, and input cost pressures are easing there. And while we are at it, we should note that the factory PMIs for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia all remained quite positive and expansionary. All of these noted that cost pressures are also easing now. The Australian version is rising too, but cost pressures there are still elevated. In Australia, the Cotality Home Value Index dropped -0.7% in July from June, the sharpest monthly decline since December 2022 and accelerating from a -0.4% fall in the prior month. The drop was after higher mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and soft consumer sentiment that all hurt housing demand. Sydney and Melbourne lead the downturn, with home values falling -1.4% and -1.2%, respectively in a month. Staying in Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased materially in July, after falling in the previous two months. The increase was broad-based, with annual headline inflation of 4.0%. The monthly cost of living also increased across a range of household types. Later this week we will jet the June household spending data from the ABS and also their cost of living indicators. This MI data suggests whatever those ABS results in June, things will get worse in July. We should note that the copper price is rising again, making another tilt at the record highs it reached in May and June this year. It is now back up at US$14.330/tonne, just -2% below that record peak. At the rate it moves, it could breach that very soon. AI build-out demand, as supply constraints deepen, are driving this latest rush. Some of it is stockpiling in the expectation Trump will queer the pitch with a tariff move. In any event, the world's big mining firms are shifting away from iron ore to copper mining, chasing these riches. We could probably also note that SpaceX 'listed' at US$135/share but opened at US$160. It is now struggling to hold US$110/share today. Not helping are that 'lockup' investors and staff are now net sellers. Shorting SpaceX seems to be a growth game. We should probably also keep an eye on accounting firm KPMG. The consequences of its horror story in Australia are about to be played out, with maybe global implications. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.69%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has slipped to US$4033/oz, down -US$9 from yesterday. Silver is little-changed at just over US$57.50/oz. Oil prices are down -US$4.50 from yesterday and now just under US$80/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$83.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There has been only one crude tanker and 6 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and five entering for new loads (2 dark), all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low at about 20 either way. That is kept low because only Chinese-bound vessels are getting Houthi exemptions. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at just over 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.4 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,851 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that now we are in August, there are only 100 working days until Christmas, and less than 70 until our 2026 general election! You will need to pull your finger out to ensure your 2026 goals are on track to be accomplished. This week will see the release of a number of updates on how the July real estate market performed. More importantly, we will get the June labour market update and that is expected to show rising joblessness (to 5.4%). To be fair, labour market data are lagging indicators. In Australia, Cotality and Domain will report what they saw in their residential real estate markets. And we will get both household spending and cost of living updates for June this week, neither expected to show improvements. We should also note that their fuel excise tax suspension ended last night. From April to June the discount was 32 AUc/liter, for June and July it was 16c. Now there is no relief discount there. Globally it will be all about July PMIs (other than keeping an eye on the warmongers who all show a distinct lack of any idea on how to end the conflicts they started). In the US, the other important data will be their end of week labour market updates in their non-farm payrolls report. There is little evidence to suggest it will be a strong one and markets currently expect another month of less than +100,000 gains (+91,000) and a rising jobless rate (4.3%). We will be tracking their bond market signals closely too. And that the Trump Organisation is regarded by banks as a money-laundering entity barely raises an eyebrow these days, indicates how low the US has fallen. But also, a key background reason risk premiums are rising. In India, they will get a central bank review but no-change to their policy rate (5.25%) is anticipated. We will be tracking those PMIs too, especially in China to see if the private S&P Global versions continue to be more upbeat than the dour official versions. After four months of minor expansion, those official factory PMIs has slipped back into small contraction with a much sharper shift than was expected. After two months of minor expansion, their official services PMI also slipped back into a small contraction, also a sharper shift lower than expected. China's overall growth targets are looking less likely to be achieved the longer the year goes on. But lets not overstate these pullback signals; most countries would love to have their growth levels even at the reduced impetus. China's key issue is that new order levels are fading and exports are the key driver, not internal consumption (which is their goal). So more induced infrastructure stimulus is on the way. Korean industrial production bounced back sharply in June after the minor but unexpected dip in May. The June level was +5.8% higher than a year ago, up +2.3% from May, a heartening rebound for them. The Korean stock market bounced back sharply on Friday after the earlier dives, but they still ended the week down more than -3%. Japanese industrial production recorded a similar recovery in June, up +4.2% from a year ago, up +1.3% for the month. But that was not matched by retail sales in Japan which took a rather large tumble, down -4.1% from the strong year-ago level, up +0.5% from May. The Japanese central bank intervention support for their currency may have been significantly expensive, even if it has succeeded in halting the devaluation with a 3% recovery. Reports indicate they spent US$45 to US$50 bln on the few-days effort. It happened again on Friday, this time in a joint action with the US. And more may be coming. EU inflation came in at 2.9% in July as expected, up marginally from June's 2.8%. Australian producer prices rose +3.6% in June from a year ago, the most since early 2025 and above the anticipated +2.5% and even the 'high' Q1-2026 3.0% level. Inflation is embedding and it is a result that will focus attention by officials. In the US, even though the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged last Thursday (despite 3 dissenters wanting higher rates), markets have pushed US benchmark rates higher anyway. The UST 10 year is +27 bps higher at the end of July than at the beginning. Their 30 year benchmark is also +27 bps higher. Most of these increases came in the past two weeks, and will resonate soon for American home loan borrowers. The updated July University of Michigan sentiment survey confirmed its better July levels, and confirmed lower inflation expectations. Still, these new levels are -11% lower than year-ago levels with perceptions of current conditions -19% lower. These measures are still in the down-trend that started in 2024 even after these better July results. They noted that US consumers remain focused on pocketbook issues like purchasing power, while political or military developments remain more in the background. Also improving in July were the results of the Chicago PMI, clearly benefiting from stockpiling and reshoring still. In the current Q2-2026 earnings season reporting, 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 77% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive revenue surprise. In Canada, they reported their GDP rose modestly in June, a third consecutive rise and the fifth gain in six months as their economy gathers steam. Q2-2026 results aren't yet available but it is clear they will be quite positive, in contrast to the small dip in Q1-2026, and the weak Q2-2025 result. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.75%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday, up +7 bps for the week. We make that its highest since January 2025 (briefly) and prior to that October 2023. The 30 year yield is at 5.28% and a 20+ year high.  The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$8 from Saturday down -US$6 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$57.50/oz, down -US$1 for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday still at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just over US$88/bbl.  The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.9 USc, but up +100 bps for the week and back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.6 which is also unchanged from this time Saturday, and also up +100 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,293 and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -1.4% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that after more bellicose threats, Trump has backed off hitting Iran as he had signaled, another TACO twist. The region isn't quiet, but the threatened escalation by the US hasn't happened, not yet anyway. The oil price hasn't really eased back yet on this lull and is holding most of last week run-up towards US$100/bbl again. Trumps policy twerking has everyone unnerved. Away from that and looking ahead locally, this week will feature the big data dump of the June quarter RBNZ series. We will especially be watching household deposit growth, which stalled in May. In Australia, it will be all about Wednesday's CPI release (expect a small rise to 4.1%) and Friday's PPI (expect a rise to 3.5%). In the US, the spotlight will be on the Thursday Fed meeting. Analysts expect no-change at 3.75% even though CPI inflation was at 3.5% for June and rising, remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. Even their PCE inflation was running at 4.1% for May. We will get their June update on Friday. In the meantime, financial markets are pricing in more of a chance of a hike - if not at this meeting then two by the end of the year. There will be a lot of other US data out this week, including a Q2 GDP update, and the Conference Board's sentiment survey. The week will also feature some Big Tech profit results. In Japan, all eyes will be on Friday's central bank decision, especially on how they intend to respond to their currency problems. Not no change from their 1% rate is anticipated. In China, it will be all about a big set-piece Communist Party meeting. There will be a lot of interest to see if big new stimulus is announced there. Their PMI's may signal how urgent that is. Over the weekend in Japan, CPI inflation stayed low in June even if it did rose to a six month high. It came in at 1.7% in June from 1.5% in May, its highest since December. The pickup was largely driven by a slower decline in electricity and fuel prices as government energy subsidies were scaled back. Japan's private sector expanded to a five-month high in July via a sharp rise in manufacturing production and an improvement in their factory PMI which was driven mainly by the sharpest increase in manufacturing orders for five years. The July PMIs for India came in notably lower than for June as private sector growth receded and inflation pressure, especially for fuel, intensified. This is putting them in a tough spot with spreading social unrest. Their factory PMI dipped only marginally but their services PMI registered a notable easing. In the US the first of the July PMIs shows that business activity growth rose modestly but to an eight-month high in July although that isn't an especially high benchmark. However selling prices rose sharply and at their fastest rate for nearly four years. Input cost inflation was at a 14 month high. Their factory sector expansion was little-changed however from June with new orders little-changed. It was their services sector that expanded more, albeit modestly US new home sales were little-changed in June but maintained the modest level they have had all year. That makes then -5.6% lower than year-ago levels. Canadian producer price growth fell back slightly in June from May but are still +12.4% higher than year-ago levels. Raw material input costs by manufacturers were up more than +20% from a year go. Meanwhile, the Russian central bank trimmed -25 bps from its key policy rate, taking it to 14.0%. A year ago, this rate was 21%. They have CPI inflation officially at 6.0%, although this seems an unlikely level. In the EU, eurozone business activity has risen for first time in four months in July amid renewed expansion of new orders. Their factory PMI inched up, and their services PMI inched up too. But to be fair, these higher levels are not significant and the expansion is minor compared to other global regions. But at least it isn't a contraction. The German versions of these PMIs was generally better than the overall set. German consumer sentiment didn't budge however. In Europe, their ugly heat and worrying fire season isn't easing. In fact a new wave of extreme heat is forecast over the next few weeks. It is part of an accelerating trend that will likely extinguish European glaciers far faster than anticipated just ten years ago. Australia also got better new factory order levels in July, the first increase in new business in five months. Improved demand conditions underpinned a stronger expansion in output, led to upgraded recruitment activity and enabled greater protection of profit margins. This data confirms the good labour market data released yesterday. But overall Australian growth is likely to remain sluggish. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra house prices actually fell in the June quarter, an unusual but necessary shift to make their housing more affordable. It takes serious political bravery to turn a frothy market where gains just fell from the sky. Bitumen prices are surging again on the closed Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes. They are back to levels that we had in mid-March and which lasted to mid-June. Interestingly, urea prices are staying low as are potash prices (minor rises) but sulphur prices never fell after the March spike. Naphtha (used for plastics manufacturing) is rising sharply again. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.68%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +13 bps for the week. The price of gold has firmed to US$4052/oz, virtually unchanged from Saturday up +US$49 for the week. Silver is now just on US$58/oz, down -50 USc from Saturday, up +US$2 for the week. Oil prices have risen back +US$1.50 from Saturday at now just over US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$98.50/bbl and up +US$2. A week ago these prices were US$82 and US$88/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have almost halted entirely There have been no crude tankers and only 1 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) and none entering for new loads (0 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). Still almost 800 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just on 57.9 USc but down -50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just over 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is unchanged from this time Saturday but down -50 bps from a week ago. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,673 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday and up +1.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again on Tuesday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Don't forget to listen and subscribe to the Raised By Her podcast. YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@RaisedByHerPodcast Linktree: https://linktr.ee/raisedbyherpodcast   Donnica Hawes-Saunders is the Founder and CEO of The Averity Group, a full-service, solution-oriented public affairs  firm that specializes in highly regulated organizations. They maximize advocacy success through proactive engagement  and in 2023, The Averity Group was named one of the top reputation management agencies in the U.S. by Design Rush.   Donnica is recognized as a mission-driven, political social impact strategist that specializes in complex policy and media  environments. With over a decade of experience in the private sector and on Capitol Hill, she connects public policy and  organizational priorities with an emphasis on politically astute, coalition-based communications and strategic  partnerships.  While leading global and U.S. public affairs and external communications outreach at Philip Morris International (PMI), Donnica conceptualized, developed, and directed over thirty original partnerships across six intersections: policy, media, NGOs, academic, sustainability, and diversity and inclusion, elevating PMIs brand. She secured a fifty percent increase in relationships with high-profile bi-partisan, key opinion leaders, and third-party validators for the company despite multi billion-dollar resistance efforts within the industry. In addition, Donnica strategized and executed diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programming and advocacy across U.S. and global teams increasing PMI's corporate visibility, engagement, and reputation in various markets.  Prior to PMI, Donnica worked at Heineken USA developing federal legislative strategy that resulted in two years of federal excise tax relief for the company, saving approximately thirteen million dollars annually. She also launched inaugural state and local legislative tracking, reporting, and communications for global and U.S. leadership. In addition, she built social impact partnerships to promote brand reputation through corporate social responsibility and DEI programming. During her tenure, she created several successful alcohol responsibility campaigns, including Heineken's premier DRINK or DRIVE campaign in the U.S.  With several years serving as a senior staffer on Capitol Hill, Donnica has a broad background in policy and legislative  strategy. She drafted and advanced legislation including bills to improve responses to victims of child sex trafficking (P.L. 114-22) and established amendment language in the 2014 Farm Bill Conference Report designating a historically black  college (HBCU) as an 1890 Land Grant University, increasing access to federal funds. She worked in the offices of  Congresswoman Joyce Beatty (OH-03), the U.S. House Democratic Caucus under Chairman John Larson (CT-01), and  the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security, under Ranking Member Bennie Thompson (MS-02).  Before working in the U.S. Congress, Donnica established a legal background through a unique combination of corporate  law, litigation, negotiation, and persuasive communication training. She was a federal law clerk in the U. S. District Court  for the Southern District of Ohio and for the 165th Harris County Civil District Court of Houston. She also represented  clients at the Montgomery County Public Defender's Office, Juvenile and Child Support Division, and worked at Sebaly,  Shillito & Dyer in the commercial litigation department focused on bankruptcy law.  Donnica has published articles in World Leaders Magazine, SheMedia, Diplomatic Courier, Sustainable Brands, Black  EOE Journal, Sustainable Brands, Authority Magazine, Swaay, and Harness Magazine for her perspectives on corporate  culture, sustainability, and diversity and inclusion. She has been featured on several podcasts as well as a speaker in the  U.S. and globally at the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) Executive Institute, the foremost expert,  convener and thought leader on issues impacting today's evolving workplaces, the Public Education Leadership Network  (PLEN), Better Business Bureau (BBB), Aspen Institute, and the Concordia Summit during the United Nations General  Assembly (UNGA).  Recognized for her influence in public affairs, Donnica was named one of D.C.'s Top Lobbyists and Influencers by Lawyers of Color magazine. She was also selected as a member of the American Council of Young Political Leaders, an  esteemed global network of elected officials and policy experts. As an Executive Leadership Council Fellow, she works to  expand opportunities for Black executives to make meaningful contributions across business and community.  Donnica's leadership history includes serving on the Advisory Council of the Congressional Hispanic Leadership Institute (CHCI) and the board of the World Affairs Council of America (WACA). Currently, she serves on the advisory council of her alma mater, The University of Dayton School of Law (UDSL), and on the board of Dayton Live, the region's largest  employer of performing arts professionals. Deeply committed to civic guidance, she also serves on the Influencer Council  of Running Start, a nonpartisan organization training young women for political leadership, and the Legislative and  Regulatory Committee of the Dayton Chamber of Commerce, where she helps guide policy on taxation, trade, healthcare,  and business regulation.  With a track record of innovation, Donnica has been honored by Marquis Who's Who for her work at The Averity Group.  She is also a 2025 Business Journal Forty Under 40 Honoree and a 2025 Better Business Bureau Women to Watch  Honoree, celebrated for her business acumen and commitment to uplifting communities. A trailblazer in diversity, equity,  and inclusion, Donnica has been honored as one of Yahoo Finance's EMpower 100 Global Future Leaders & Top 20 Highest Achieving Changemakers for her strategic impact, execution, and advocacy. She also received the PRISM  International Diversity Impact Award for her work in developing and institutionalizing HBCU programming within  global organizations.  Beyond her professional achievements, Donnica is deeply committed to community service and cultural preservation. She  volunteers as an Ambassador for the Smithsonian National Museum of African American History and Culture  (NMAAHC) and is an active member of The Links, Incorporated.  Donnica holds a J. D. from the University of Dayton School of Law, and received a B.A., magna cum laude, in Sociology  and Anthropology from Spelman College. ______________________________________________________________________ The Edupreneur: Your Blueprint To Jumpstart And Scale Your Education BusinessYou've spent years in the classroom, leading PD, designing curriculum, and transforming how students learn. Now, it's time to leverage that experience and build something for yourself. 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US and Iran continued to exchange strikes, with CENTCOM conducting a 13th night of attacks on Iranian military targets; US President Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement but is not yet ready.Iran reportedly rejected a US ceasefire proposal presented by Iraq's PM, while Tehran also refused to amend a separate 10-day ceasefire plan linked to discussions over the Strait of Hormuz.The Trump administration imposed new tariffs of 10-12.5% on imports from 60 countries over claims that they had failed to prevent forced labour.US equity futures are entirely in the green, supported by the upbeat beat mood in Europe while lower oil prices are also supporting indices (Brent -3.5%).DXY rangebound; Antipodeans outperform amid the risk-on tone, while EUR helped by positive flash PMIs.Fixed income benchmarks helped by the lower crude prices.Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs (Jul), Canadian PPI (Jun). Comments from ECB's Lane. Scope Ratings update on Norway.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us Fan MailIntensifying US-Iran war sends Brent above $100, US yields to 18-monthhigh. Stocks take a dive as AI jitters exacerbate the selloff. But marketscalmer today as oil pares gains, upbeat PMIs help sentiment. Yencontinues to tumble, nearly hits 164 per dollar.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD 

The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • June's final composite PMIs • SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 • Required Minimum Distribution reminder Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: • Source: TradingEconomics, as of 7/7/2026. US and Japan Composite PMIs, May 2026 - June 2026. • Source: TradingEconomics, as of 7/7/2026. Eurozone Composite PMI,May 2026 - June 2026. • Source: TradingEconomics, as of 7/7/2026. United Kingdom Composite PMI, June 2026. • Source: TradingEconomics, as of 7/7/2026. United States, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, July 2016 – June 2026. • Source: Reuters, as of 7/7/2026. “MSCI Confirms Early Index Inclusion Rules Ahead of SpaceX IPO,” 6/8/2026. Want to dig deeper? • What current tech sentiment means for markets: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/in-orbit-on-tech-sentiment-and-ipos • What this years PMI reports signal for the global economy: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/a-may-global-economic-check-in Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: 
https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview10July2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

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Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Persian Gulf situation is settling into a chronic stalemate after the acute hot conflict. US allies in the region are confused, Qatar's role in negotiations is questioned as to whether it can actually do anything, and Iran and Oman are moving forward with their plans for 'fees' and 'management' of the waterway. The US is getting sidelined. One outcome seems clear however; Chinese EV's are dominating world car sales so demand for crude oil is likely to be much less in the future, and that will limit oil price pressures. But first today, there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight, bringing lower prices again. AMF fell -2.5% from last week's event, butter was down -0.5%, SMP was down a chunky -6.2% and WMP slipped -0.6%. These build on trends we have seen since mid-May and given the rise in global milk production by the main exporters (New Zealand included), it is a trend likely to continue for a while yet. In the US, labour market data for May about job openings was little-changed from April even if it still is near a two year high, which was slightly better than was expected. But the June PMI report for the important Chicago manufacturing hub was quite a bit weaker than for May and what was expected. But it is only back to February levels which isn't bad at all. It was a fall away in new orders that drove the easing. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed's regional services survey became positive - just - for the first time in five months. They reported that selling price pressures increased slightly, while input price and wage pressures grew at a faster pace. The Conference Board sentiment survey barely moved in June from May, which actually was a result that disappointed analysts because a more marked improvement was anticipated. And that was because respondents turned negative about job prospects, with almost a quarter of them unexpectedly saying jobs are 'hard to get', the highest level sine early 2021. And we should perhaps note that the deadly screwworm cattle disease is still spreading in Texas and New Mexico, spreading to other animals too. Even though the number of animals reported as having contracted the disease remains small, the risks to cattle herds in these states in very large. In Canada, the expectation that it was falling into recession has proven not to be the case. Canada's GDP rebounded from a first-quarter contraction to record a +0.5% monthly gain in April making this their largest economic expansion in nine months. Their May estimate points to a further if minor + 0.1% growth. Across the Pacific in Japan, the yen slipped into the 162-per-US dollar range yesterday for the first time in 39 years,and extending a slide that has accelerated in the past few months. A two month intervention effort isn't working, raising fresh questions about what is driving the yen's renewed weakness. China's official PMIs posted some marginal improvements in June, actually very marginal but at least they are not contracting. Their factory PMI is expanding, just. New orders picked up slightly. And their services PMI is now not contracting. But it isn't expanding either. New orders in this version are still negative, but the overall index was bolstered by expectations for improvement and lower lead times. All other more direct elements are negative to some degree. We should note that the unofficial PMIs by S&P Global/RatingDog have tended to be more expansionary in 2026. These unofficial results will come later today (Wednesday) and Friday. German inflation came in at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, 2.9% in April, and softer than anticipated, mainly because energy prices retreated there. Back in the US, Rocket Lab has agreed to buy Iridium Communications, a pioneer in satellite telephones, in a broadening attempt to compete with Starlink. It combines their launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium's network in low-Earth orbit and valuable radio frequencies for satellite communication. Yesterday we reported a +6% rise in May air cargo activity. But today the May air passenger travel data was released showing a declined -2.2% from a year ago, down -3.1% for international travel. The main diver of the pullback was international travel through the Middle East (-28.8%). But it is also worth noting that domestic air travel in China fell (-6.2%) as well as in the US (-1.9%). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.43%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4026/oz, up a net +US$4/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$59.50/oz, up +US$1.50 from a day ago. Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$69.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$73/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (5 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels have been headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.6 which is up another +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$58.325 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Europe's equity rally has surprised many investors. Our Europe Head of Research Product Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock discuss potential outcomes of the broadening market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Products here in Europe. Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist. Paul Walsh: And today, we're looking at whether European equities have more room to broaden – as markets assess the implications of a potential U.S.-Iran deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.It's Monday, June the 29th at 10am in London. Marina, it's always great having you on. And for our listeners out there, I think they'd be interested to hear that if we look at Europe's performance year-to-date, it's now on a par to the S&P. So, both indices are up somewhere between 7 and 8 percent year-to-date. So, Europe is starting to stage something of a comeback from the conflict lows. And so, what's driving this? And are we beginning to see inflows into Europe again? Marina Zavolock: So, I'm going to give a two-part answer to this. Firstly, Europe has a lot of the same exposure as the U.S., so that is part of the reason… I know that Europe has this kind of reputation for not having a lot of tech exposure; but we do have tech exposure… Paul Walsh: We do. Marina Zavolock: Not to the same degree as the U.S., but, let me just give you some numbers here. So, we have a number of sectors heavily exposed to the AI CapEx boom. These are led primarily by the semis sector in Europe, tech hardware, cap goods, and metals and mining; specifically, copper has a link to AI as well. And those sectors, let's say roughly they make up at this point about 15 percent weight of our index. And if you look at that year-to-date performance that's on par with the U.S., almost 90 percent of it is made up from these sectors.Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: So, these sectors have moved just as aggressively as many of the AI pockets within the U.S. That's the answer that's kind of similar to the U.S. The answer that's a bit different is that we get from time to time, over the years actually, but we had a very big one earlier this year. We get these waves of interest in Europe because investors start to think about diversification. So… Paul Walsh: That's right. The broadening. Marina Zavolock: Yes. So, they... And we've called for broadening recently on the back of this, Iran-U.S. MOU. But this broadening has other drivers as well. So when we felt this wave of interest in diversification, and we saw the flows coming into Europe earlier this year, the driver was initially because the Mag7 was kind of going choppy and sideways. So, that just drove diversification out of Mag7 and into equal-weighted S&P, but that also always benefits Europe. Or tends to benefit Europe. But also, we had this wave of interest in real assets earlier this year; and Europe has a higher share of real assets than the U.S. Now, at this moment, I am sensing that we are getting that pickup in broadening interest once again from my feedback with investors. You had this MOU, which was the initial trigger. You have oil prices, broadly, they're falling. That's helpful as well. But I think the biggest driver of what's driving this diversification interest at this moment is actually the volatility that we're seeing in the AI complex. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, what a lot of the feedback I'm getting these days from investors that are coming back to Europe after focusing primarily on the U.S. is, ‘Look, I have a lot of AI in my portfolio. I like my AI exposure. I'm not looking to get rid of it or to sell it, but incrementally, I'm a little bit worried about this volatility. And I'm looking to broaden my exposure. What do you like in Europe to help me diversify away from this kind of volatility that we're seeing now?' Paul Walsh: And I think that's a great segue, Marina, to my second question, because with Europe having really kept pace with the S&P year-to-date, the question that really is going to be asked is the sustainability of that relative performance. And when we think about a backdrop here in Europe of pretty low economic growth, the market continues to be worried about rate hikes given recent inflationary dynamics. And as you've articulated there, tech has played a very significant role here in Europe as well in terms of driving markets higher. So, you've alluded to it in a few of your comments already, but how sustainable do we see this as being? Marina Zavolock: It depends on AI, to be honest with you. So, if AI starts to really move up at an aggressive pace like it was earlier this year, then it's hard for Europe to outperform given our exposure. But if that starts to move up at a more moderate pace, Europe has a chance to do very well. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: I think there's a lot of misperceptions when it comes to European equities. And outside of AI, actually there's quite a lot of strength. So, misperception one, you've mentioned it, which is basically: Oh, look at our PMIs, look at our GDP growth. Why bother with European equities? I think this is maybe what some U.S. investors may think. But just like in the U.S., the equities market, and maybe even more so, the equities market in Europe – it is not the economy. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, we just published our global exposure guide over this past weekend, which Morgan Stanley has been running 29 iterations of this guide. Europe's exposure to Europe is pretty much at historical lows over decades. Europe's exposure to Europe as a percent of revenues is now 45 percent of revenues … Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: ... is European exposed. The rest is very global, including the U.S. Um, Europe, uh, Of that 45 percent domestic, a lot of that is banks, some defensive sectors. Only a very small sliver is actually consumer-oriented sectors that would see earnings downgrades on the back of ECB hiking, for example. So, I think people may also be surprised to know that consensus earnings growth for Europe this year is over 16 percent. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: It's really healthy. Paul Walsh: It's pretty healthy. Marina Zavolock: I know the U.S. is over 20, but Europe is over 16 percent. These kinds of ideas of, you know – we have a shortage of energy and therefore our earnings are going to be down – they're misperceptions. Because actually, as long as oil doesn't spike to, I don't know, [$]150. If it stays within a healthy range, call it [$]70 to 90, that's actually a very good environment for Europe because we have a lot of real assets. We have the banks which benefit from higher inflation because they trade on the steepness of the curve. And we have some AI exposure. If you add up those three things, which all benefit from inflation, that's 60 percent of our earnings pie.Paul Walsh: Right. Marina Zavolock: Hence, Europe's actually doing really well. And I'll just mention one other thing. Earlier this year, we broke out of a structural downtrend discount; that range that we were trading in versus the U.S. So, for almost 10 years, Europe's discount was just going wider and wider and wider and wider. And as of January 1st, this year, on a like-for-like basis, so sector neutral excluding Mag7, we broke out of that structural downtrend, and we keep seeing a narrowing. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: So, if you're going to broaden, it actually makes a lot of sense to look at Europe, where we have these discounts, and we have value, and we have growth. Paul Walsh: Yeah. So, the point there being the relative valuation discount of Europe to the U.S. has been actually closing a little bit more recently. Final question from my side. You have obviously recently refreshed your sector model. We have talked about the broadening in our conversation today. What are you advocating to your clients out there in terms of relative sector preferences? Marina Zavolock: Yeah. So, we run a data-driven model. Just briefly, we look at things like earnings revisions breadth – works really well as a leading indicator in Europe; a leading indicator for future earnings as well. Consensus price target revisions breadth, balance sheet measures. We look at a number of different things, AI exposure. And basically, I'll just give you the top sectors in our model now. Semis number one, metals and mining number two, led by copper. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: Banks number three. I think banks, for me, it's a key diversification play. Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: A big differentiator. And trading on 10 times PE with very high distributions, buybacks and dividends, low teens earnings growth upgrades. Front of the line on AI adoption and seeing that ROI coming through. Cap goods, number four, that's also led by AI exposure. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: And then I'll just mention lastly, utilities is an overweight as well. That's also a little bit AI linked, but very, very under-owned; lagging the trends we've seen in the U.S. And broader based in terms of the positives there because we also have this drive for renewables, which is coming back. Paul Walsh: Marina, always, we value your insights highly. Thanks as always for taking the time to talk. Marina Zavolock: Great speaking with you, Paul. Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And please do share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

O estrategista de investimentos do BB Private, Allan Fukumoto, CFP®, analisa os principais fatos da última semana e reflete sobre as expectativas para a semana atual no Brasil e no mundo para te ajudar a tomar as melhores decisões de investimento: "Nos mercados globais, a semana foi marcada pela combinação entre o alívio parcial das tensões no Oriente Médio e a resiliência da economia americana. O avanço das negociações entre Estados Unidos e Irã e a manutenção do fluxo de petróleo pelo Estreito de Ormuz ajudaram a reduzir o prêmio de risco sobre a commodity e trouxeram algum alívio aos mercados internacionais. Nos Estados Unidos, os PMIs vieram acima do esperado, o PIB do primeiro trimestre foi revisado para cima e os pedidos de auxílio-desemprego recuaram, reforçando a leitura de uma atividade ainda sólida. Ao mesmo tempo, o PCE seguiu mostrando inflação pressionada, o que sustenta a percepção de juros elevados por mais tempo por parte do Federal Reserve. No Brasil, a semana foi marcada pela piora das expectativas de inflação e por uma comunicação mais dura do Banco Central. O Relatório Focus mostrou novas altas nas projeções para o IPCA e para a Selic, enquanto a ata do Copom reforçou a percepção de desancoragem das expectativas e de riscos assimétricos para cima. Embora o Banco Central tenha reduzido a Selic para 14,25% ao ano, o tom foi de cautela, indicando que os próximos passos dependerão da evolução dos dados. Na inflação corrente, o IPCA-15 de junho veio ligeiramente abaixo do esperado, mas o acumulado em 12 meses avançou para 4,80%, mantendo-se acima do teto da meta."Confira agora o BB Private Highlights. Conheça também outros conteúdos produzidos por nossos premiados especialistas no hub BB Private Lounge: bb.com.br/lounge 

Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea's KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a rare reversal of decades-long chip price declines due to supply-demand imbalance, valuations still matter. On the economic front, flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing surged to 55.7, the highest in a little over four years, and services also beat expectations, supporting an improving growth backdrop tied partly to data-center CapEx. He addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar losing reserve status, arguing no viable replacement exists, citing dollar dominance in FX (90%) and global reserves (57%) versus the euro (20%). 00:00 Summer Market Check-In 00:31 Global Tech Sell-Off 01:38 Semis Valuation Reality 02:01 AI Chip Demand Shift 02:48 PMI Data Highlights 03:43 Dollar Reserve Status Fears 04:32 What Could Replace Dollar 05:53 Reserve Currency Numbers 06:32 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana foi marcada pelas decisões de política monetária. O Banco Central da Inglaterra manteve os juros inalterados, enquanto o Banco Central do Japão elevou a taxa para 1%, ambos em linha com as expectativas. O principal destaque ficou para o Fed, que manteve os juros, mas cuja primeira reunião sob a presidência de Kevin Warsh trouxe mudanças relevantes na comunicação, com o fim do forward guidance e a criação de grupos de trabalho para revisar temas como balanço, produtividade, mercado de trabalho na era da IA e fontes de dados. O Fed também revisou para cima suas projeções de inflação e reforçou o compromisso com a meta de 2%. Nos EUA, o varejo de maio surpreendeu positivamente, reforçando a leitura de atividade resiliente. No campo geopolítico, o memorando de entendimento entre Estados Unidos e Irã trouxe perspectiva de redução das tensões e de normalização gradual do fluxo no Estreito de Ormuz. No Brasil, o Copom reduziu a Selic em 25 bps, decisão interpretada como dovish diante da revisão altista das projeções de inflação e da manutenção de um cenário de atividade forte. A comunicação foi confusa, utilizando a extensão do horizonte relevante para justificar o corte. No campo fiscal, a semana foi marcada por novas preocupações com propostas de aumento de gastos no Congresso e por declarações de Flávio Bolsonaro descartando medidas estruturais de ajuste fiscal. Nos EUA, o juro de 1 ano abriu 13 bps, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho positivo – S&P 500 +0,93%, Nasdaq +2,60% e Russell 2000 +1,22%. No Brasil, a curva de juros inclinou (jan/27 fechou 10 bps; jan/31 abriu 57 bps), o Ibovespa desvalorizou 1,64% e o real 1,82%. Na próxima semana, destaque para o IPCA-15, a ata do Copom e o Relatório de Política Monetária. No exterior, atenção aos PMIs e ao PCE.

What's really happening in Iran? The European Central Bank is going to suffocate the economy. The future of money and Ai. Global inflation rips higher. The Bank of Canada is stuck in an uncomfortable dilemma. Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings! For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokersFor Investors and Advisors: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehourJoin Seeking Alpha Premium And Get 25% Off Today!: https://link.seekingalpha.com/52636H6/4G6SHH/✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: steve@stevesaretsky.comStay up to date with our information -

After the data in recent weeks underscoring the cyclical uplift in the global economy since the start of the year, this week's DM flash PMIs and China data remind us that the Iran-related headwind is taking a toll and keeps downside risks alive. Absent this risk, inflation pressures are underappreciated and point to a potential central bank problem in the coming quarters.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 22 May 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana seguiu marcada pelas negociações entre Estados Unidos e Irã. O Trump chegou a sinalizar um possível ataque, posteriormente cancelado após pedidos de países do Golfo. As conversas continuam, mas seguem os impasses envolvendo o enriquecimento de urânio e o controle do fluxo no estreito de Ormuz. A ata do Fed mostrou maioria dos membros considerando apropriada uma alta de juros caso a inflação permaneça persistentemente acima da meta. O Waller, um dos diretores da entidade, que anteriormente defendia cortes, afirmou que discutir redução de juros no curto prazo seria inadequado diante dos dados recentes. Na Zona do Euro, os PMIs mostraram desaceleração adicional da atividade, principalmente em serviços. No Brasil, a semana teve poucos dados econômicos, com destaque maior para os desdobramentos políticos. O diretor do BCB Nilton David teve discurso interpretado como mais dovish, reforçando expectativa de continuidade dos cortes de 25 bps na Selic. Nas pesquisas eleitorais, Flávio Bolsonaro perdeu espaço após os áudios divulgados na semana anterior, enquanto Lula apresentou melhora marginal de aprovação. Apesar disso, a leitura segue de disputa ainda competitiva no segundo turno, com Flávio Bolsonaro permanecendo como candidato viável. Nos EUA, os juros mais curtos tiveram abertura marginal, e os mais longos fechamento marginal, enquanto as bolsas tiveram desempenho positivo – S&P 500 +0,88%, Nasdaq +1,22% e Russell 2000 +2,72%. O juro de 30 anos no Reino Unido fechou 28 bps. No Brasil, o jan/29 fechou 27 bps, o Ibovespa desvalorizou 0,61% e o real valorizou 0,38%. Na próxima semana, destaque para o PCE nos EUA e, no Brasil, atenção para o PIB, IPCA-15, dados de mercado de trabalho e índices de confiança.

Tehran is studying the American text and has not yet submitted its response, Al Arabiya reported citing sources."Pakistan's mediation efforts between US and Iran are at a crucial stage where efforts are underway to secure an agreement or a framework for comprehensive talks which can eventually lead to a ‘deal',"** according to journalist Mallick.European bourses are broadly higher despite disappointing PMIs; US equity futures are flat after NVDA sales guidance disappointed. DXY weighs hawkish FOMC and geopolitics; AUD lags post-jobs data. USTs are a little lower whilst Bunds digest Flash PMIs, which fuel stagflation woes.Crude wanes off highs amid further reports of diplomatic effects; Brent Jul -0.7%. Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P PMIs Flash (May), Initial Jobless Claims (May/16), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (May), Banxico Minutes (May). Speakers include BoE's Bailey & Taylor, ECB's Elderson, Fed's Barkin, Goolsbee. Earnings from Walmart & Deere.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana foi marcada pela divulgação dos dados de inflação nos Estados Unidos. O CPI surpreendeu para cima, com alta de 0,6% no mês, puxado principalmente por alimentação e disseminado entre os componentes. O núcleo veio próximo das expectativas, com preços de bens mais comportados, mas inflação de serviços ainda elevada, especialmente em itens mais voláteis. O PPI também veio mais forte, embora os componentes relevantes para o PCE tenham sido mais benignos. Na atividade, varejo e produção industrial surpreenderam positivamente, reforçando o cenário de crescimento resiliente. No Reino Unido, continuou a pressão política sobre o primeiro-ministro Keir Starmer após o resultado fraco nas eleições locais, com aumento das especulações sobre sua permanência no cargo. No campo geopolítico, seguiram as discussões sobre possível acordo entre Estados Unidos e Irã, mas ainda sem avanços concretos. Também houve encontro entre Donald Trump e Xi Jinping, sem grandes anúncios, mas mantendo o esforço de aproximação entre os dois países. No Brasil, o IPCA veio em 0,67%, em linha com o esperado, com piora de serviços subjacentes, reduzindo espaço para cortes de juros. A PMC surpreendeu positivamente, com alta disseminada. No campo político, foi divulgada nova pesquisa eleitoral, com melhora do Lula e piora do Flávio Bolsonaro. Além disso, a semana foi marcada pela divulgação de conversas envolvendo Flávio e Daniel Vorcaro, trazendo impacto negativo para a oposição. Nos EUA, o juro de 5 anos abriu 25 bps, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho misto – S&P 500 +0,13%, Nasdaq -0,38% e Russell 2000 -2,37%. No Reino Unido, o juro de 30 anos abriu 27 bps. No Brasil, o jan/31 abriu 64 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 3,71% e, o real, 3,3%. Na próxima semana, destaque para os PMIs de maio e para a ata da última reunião do Fed. No Brasil, o foco segue nos desdobramentos políticos.

Santiago de la Torriente, institutional sales de Bellevue Asset Management, analiza las Smalls Caps europeas, que vuelven al foco del mercado. Además, como está el mercado en Europa. “Ha vuelto la divergencia del BCE entre crecimiento e inflación”, afirma el invitado. Tal como nos cuenta, “hay que estar atentos a las siguientes semanas, porque de cara a la próxima reunión de junio puede haber una posible subida”. ¿Cómo lo está haciendo el sector de la energía? Para él, “es muy importante que la OPEP haya incrementado el aumento de la producción”. Esto es así para el experto “no tanto por el tema del precio sino por su seguridad de suministro”. ¿Dónde ven la empresa más valor dentro de las Smalls Caps europeas? “Desde el año pasado estamos más centrados en la parte de revitalización de Europa”, nos confirma el institutional sales de Bellevue Asset Management. Para él, estas empresas se tendrían que beneficiar más en concreto de “toda la parte de gasto, de infraestructuras, defensa…”. El experto va más allá y nos explica que “este segmento a día de hoy la ven que tienen un potencial muy importante”. ¿Qué factores influyen en esto? El entrevistado explica que esto es así “por todas las inversiones que van a llegar”. ¿Dentro de todos estos valores dónde hay que poner el foco? “Siendo un poco más selectivos y yendo más a lo fundamental, la parte de Salud ha estado fuera del foco de los inversores y tenemos valoraciones muy atractivas”, nos cuenta Santiago de la Torriente. ¿Dentro de España donde está el valor? El invitado señala que aquí “destacan pequeñas compañías familiares como Bankinter o Puig, donde hay valoraciones y potenciales muy positivos”. A la pregunta sobre qué catalizadores pueden impulsar a estas compañías, el experto explica que una de las claves es “la recuperación de los PMIs”.

Semiconductor stocks, from Intel to Samsung Electronics, are pushing US and Asian equities to new all‑time highs. Strong earnings from Anheuser‑Busch and Unicredit also lifted European markets. US services activity slowed in April, while inflation pressures stayed elevated. UK yields surged on inflation and fiscal concerns, Swiss data showed higher headline but subdued core inflation, and PMIs in China and India pointed to resilience. The JPY continues to strengthen after last week's lows, likely reflecting FX intervention. Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research, notes while European earnings are rising, the momentum is weaker than in the US where all sectors are showing earnings growth.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content (06:41) - Earnings season update: Nenad Dinic, Equity Strategy Research (11:37) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Nossos sócios Luis André Oliveira e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana trouxe dados relevantes, mas o foco seguiu no conflito entre Estados Unidos e Irã. Nos EUA, o varejo veio mais forte puxado por gasolina, enquanto o consumo real segue desacelerando desde o fim de 2024. Na Europa, os PMIs mostraram alta de manufaturas, influenciadas por fatores de oferta e estoques, enquanto serviços e o composto vieram mais fracos, indicando risco para a atividade. No Reino Unido, a inflação headline veio mais alta, também pressionada por energia, enquanto o núcleo ficou em linha com o esperado. As expectativas de inflação de curto prazo subiram, mas as de prazo mais longo seguem ancoradas. Em paralelo, seguem as negociações envolvendo o conflito, com conversas ocorrendo por meio de intermediários, mas sem confirmação de encontro direto entre Irã e Estados Unidos. No Brasil, a semana foi mais esvaziada em dados por conta do feriado. No campo político, o governo enviou proposta para utilizar receitas adicionais do petróleo para reduzir tributos sobre combustíveis, buscando neutralidade fiscal. Houve também avanço inicial na discussão sobre redução da jornada de trabalho – escala 6x1. Além disso, o governo prepara medidas voltadas à renegociação de dívidas para famílias de menor renda e reforço na regulação de apostas. Nos EUA, o juro de 2 anos abriu 7 bps, e as bolsas tiveram desempenho positivo – S&P 500 +0,55%, Nasdaq +2,37% e Russell 2000 +0,36%. No Brasil, o jan/29 abriu 33 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 2,55% e o real desvalorizou apenas 0,06%. O petróleo subiu 17%. Na próxima semana, destaque para decisões de política monetária nos EUA, Europa, Reino Unido, Japão, Canadá e Brasil; além do PIB e PCE nos EUA; IPCA-15 e dados de mercado de trabalho no Brasil.

"Somalia closes Bab al-Mandab Strait to Israeli shipping", IRNA reports; "The move comes as a direct response to Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland, Yemen Press Agency reported on Wednesday".European bourses are mostly lower; US equity futures also extend lower, TSLA -2.7% post-earnings.USD and NOK outperform, GBP shrugs off political instability as PMIs firm, NZD underperforms.EZ PMIs initially helped fixed income off lows, but an inflationary UK release sparked new lows.Geopolitics keeps crude prices underpinned and metals softer amid a firmer USD.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Apr), Mexican Inflation (Apr), Canadian PPI (Mar), US Jobless Claims (Apr/18). Supply from the US. Earnings from Blackstone, Freeport-McMoran, American Airlines, Keurig Dr Pepper, Intel, Lockheed Martin, and SAP.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

O melhor ativo é sempre a boa informação!Quer receber as informações do Morning Call diretamente no seu e-mail? Acesse: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠://l.btgpactual.com/morning_call_spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Santiago de la Torriente, institutional sales de Bellevue Asset Management, analiza cómo influye el conflicto de Irán a las inversiones y a los mercados. “El impacto del conflicto en Irán ha sido evidente, desde el primer momento”, afirma el invitado. Además apunta que “se ha visto desde el primer momento bonos al alza y las bolsas cayendo”. Eso sí, el experto quería matizar que “se ve como que en la parte de las pequeñas compañías lo ha hecho algo mejor que la parte de las grandes compañías”. Para él, es tan importante esto porque “históricamente cuando hay shocks de este tipo, suele ocurrir lo contrario”. Esto es así porque “el impacto que puede tener un aumento en los costes del gas y del petróleo les puede asfixiar más”. El institutional sales de Bellevue Asset Management, analiza la tesis de inversión del segmento de inversión en las pequeñas y medianas empresas en Europa. “Nuestra tesis con las pequeñas y medianas empresas europeas sigue siendo clara por las valoraciones”, nos explica el entrevistado. Detalla que “la valoración relativa frente a las grandes se encuentra a niveles inferiores a los vistos en la crisis del 2008”. Uno de los aspectos a los que hay que estar atentos es a los PMIs, según él, que señala que “hemos visto que los PMIs europeos, sobre todo el manufacturero, han recuperado mucho”. ¿Cómo es la estrategia que tiene la compañía para las Smalls Caps? “Hay un aspecto clave porque dentro del segmento Smalls Caps nos enfocamos en compañías familiares”, nos explica Santiago de la Torriente. ¿Por qué se enfocan en las compañías familiares? El invitado nos desgrana que esto es así porque “inviertes en compañías donde sabes donde estás invirtiendo, ya que tienes un empresario que está alineado contigo” y “el tipo de gestión en este tipo de compañías suele ser más conservadora”.

The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • Iran conflict ceasefire negotiations • Canada's byelection • UK economic update Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: 1. Source: FactSet, as of 4/16/2026. MSCI World Total Return Index, daily, 3/30/2026 – 4/15/2026. 2. Source: FactSet, Trading Economics and Macrobond, as of 4/16/2026. Y/y S&P 500 earnings and revenue growth, actual and estimated, 4/10/2026. US, UK, eurozone, and Japan flash manufacturing and service PMIs, March 2026. US and global developed market GDP-weighted yield curves, 3/31/2025 – 3/31/2026. 3. “Elections and Defections Unshackle Canada's Liberals Under Carney”, Ian Austen, The New York Time, 4/14/2026. 4. Source: FactSet, as of 4/14/2026. MSCI World Index country weights, 3/31/2026. 5. Source: Trading Economics, as of 4/16/2026. United Kingdom Monthly GDP, January 2026 – February 2026. 6. Source: Trading Economics, as of 4/16/2026. United Kingdom GDP growth rate, Q1 2024 – Q4 2025. 7. Source: Trading Economics, as of 4/13/2026. UK Services and Manufacturing PMIs, November 2025 – March 2026. 8. Source: Macrobond and Fineaeon, Inc., as of 4/14/2026. Average S&P 500 Total Return index annual returns categorized by US real GDP annual percent changes of the following year, yearly, 1970 – 2025. 9. Source: FactSet, as of 4/16/2026. MSCI World Total Return Index, daily, presented in USD. Y/y percent changes in global GDP growth, quarterly, 12/31/2024 – 12/31/2025. Want to dig deeper? • What ceasefire negotiations mean for markets: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/how-investors-should-think-about-the-ceasefire • More on the state of economic conditions in the UK: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/insights/market-commentary/an-economic-check-in-on-the-uk Have feedback for this Fisher Investments podcast? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview17Apr2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

Nossos sócios Luis André Oliveira, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, a semana foi marcada por avanço nas negociações envolvendo o conflito entre Estados Unidos e Irã. O estreito de Ormuz foi declarado reaberto, ainda com restrições operacionais, e houve sinalizações de um possível acordo, com Trump indicando que o Irã teria aceitado termos relevantes, incluindo a remoção de urânio, ainda que sem confirmação oficial. A expectativa é de avanço nas negociações no curto prazo. Nos dados econômicos, o PPI veio abaixo do esperado, ajudando a consolidar projeções mais baixas para o PCE – apesar de núcleos ainda rodando em patamar desconfortável para o Fed. O Beige Book indicou empresas em postura de espera diante das incertezas, com pressão de custos. Nas reuniões do FMI, membros do Banco Central Europeu sinalizaram preferência por aguardar, sem viés de elevação de juros diante das incertezas sobre os efeitos de segunda ordem para a inflação. No Brasil, a semana foi marcada por comunicações do Banco Central durante reuniões do FMI, com sinais mistos entre diretores – o Nilton David sendo interpretado como mais dovish, e o Paulo Picchetti como mais hawkish. Dados de atividade (PMC e PMS) vieram mais fracos na margem, mas influenciados por efeitos de calendário. No campo político, pesquisas indicaram avanço de Flávio Bolsonaro sobre Lula, enquanto o governo sinalizou medidas para combate ao elevado patamar de endividamento das famílias por um lado, e por outro vem tentando evitar novas medidas fiscalmente negativas. Nos EUA, o juro de 5 anos fechou 10 bps, e as bolsas tiveram bom desempenho – S&P 500 +4,54%, Nasdaq +6,20% e Russell 2000 +5,56%. No Brasil, o jan/29 fechou 22 bps, o Ibovespa caiu 0,8% e o real subiu 0,56%. O petróleo caiu 12%. Na próxima semana, no Brasil, a agenda é mais esvaziada. No exterior, destaque para vendas no varejo nos EUA e PMIs de abril dos EUA e Europa.

The data in hand continue to paint a picture of solid momentum in activity at the start of the year. However, while today's US payroll report was encouraging, the March global PMIs send a more cautionary signal that fear is building for where the expansion goes in the current quarter. From here, each week of closure in the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk considerably of a much more serious hit from the commodity shock.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 3 April 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Markets continue to gyrate around the latest headlines on the Middle East conflict. Early weakness yesterday – driven by doubts over the status of any US–Iran negotiations – gave way to renewed optimism overnight and into Asian trading this morning, as the US outlined a 15‑point plan aimed at ending the conflict. Gold stabilised, while global PMIs added to inflation concerns and highlighted weakening economic momentum. In this context, Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, discusses the drivers behind the recent market behaviour, why investors should remain patient, and why Swiss equities continue to serve as an effective crisis hedge.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (05:40) - Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (10:17) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Brian Szytel recaps a choppy, directionless market day marked by early heavy losses, a midday rebound, and a late fade amid negative sentiment tied to Middle East tensions: the Dow fell 84 points, the S&P 500 lost just over 0.3%, and the Nasdaq dropped about 0.8%, with tech weaker while defensives, dividend payers, and energy (helped by higher oil) held up better. He discusses conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran negotiations and expects uncertainty to persist for several days, while noting markets still seem to price in a potential off-ramp. He highlights that high-yield credit spreads remain tight at 319 bps over Treasuries, not signaling recession risk. Addressing a stagflation question, he argues current conditions differ from the 1970s despite tariff-driven one-time price effects. Economic updates were broadly positive: services and manufacturing PMIs stayed above 50, Q4 productivity was revised to 1.8%, and the Richmond Fed index was flat but beat expectations. 00:00 Market Recap Today 01:04 Middle East Tensions 02:05 Markets Still Hopeful 02:28 Credit Spreads Check 03:24 Stagflation Question 03:50 Why Not the 1970s 04:48 Tariffs and Inflation 05:35 Economic Data Rundown 06:36 Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi is said to have secretly informed US Envoy Witkoff of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's agreement to negotiate, Al Arabiya reports citing Israeli press citing sources.European equities subdued while PUIG SM surges on EL merger; US equity futures pull back from Monday's highs.DXY finds its footing following recent losses, Antipodeans lag, EUR digests PMIs which indicate slowing growth.Fixed income mixed ahead of a busy speaker slate. Firmer trade across oil as markets digest conflicting reports while attacks continue.Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs (Mar), ADP Employment Change Weekly. Speakers include ECB's Sleijpen, Cipollone, Lane & Nagel, BoE's Pill, SNB's Schlegel & Tschudin, Fed's Barr. Supply from Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Tomás Goulart e Sarah Campos debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, o debate sobre os impactos da inteligência artificial no mercado de trabalho ganhou destaque. Um artigo do Citrini Research trouxe uma visão mais pessimista, sugerindo que a IA pode ampliar a substituição entre capital e trabalho, reduzir a renda do trabalho, enfraquecer o consumo e gerar pressões deflacionárias. Em contraponto, análises como a da Citadel destacaram que grandes ondas tecnológicas historicamente destruíram empregos, mas também criaram novos postos em maior número ou valor, impulsionando ganhos de produtividade e a expansão de novas atividades. A divergência está menos no aumento de produtividade e mais na velocidade de adaptação e na distribuição desses ganhos. A semana também foi marcada pela continuidade das negociações entre Estados Unidos e Irã e, no Japão, pela indicação de novos membros para o BOJ, além de relatos de preocupação do governo com a trajetória recente de alta de juros. No Brasil, o IPCA-15 surpreendeu para cima, com alta de 0,84% ante expectativa 0,58%, puxado por itens voláteis como passagens aéreas, seguro e perfumes. A curva de juros abriu após o dado. No campo político, pesquisas mostraram continuidade da perda de popularidade do presidente Lula, com Flávio Bolsonaro empatado ou ligeiramente à frente em cenários de segundo turno, além do avanço da agenda da oposição. A incerteza em torno da IA gerou rotação setorial nos mercados, com destaque para a queda de cerca de 8% dos bancos regionais nos EUA (KRE). Mesmo após resultados fortes, a Nvidia encerrou a semana em baixa. Os índices Nasdaq (-0,20%) e S&P 500 (-0,40%) registraram leves quedas, enquanto o Russell 2000 foi mais impactado, recuando 1,70%. Os juros americanos fecharam, com redução de prêmio na parte longa. O dólar seguiu fraco frente a emergentes e moedas desenvolvidas, com valorização de 1% do real. Ouro e prata avançaram, assim como o petróleo, em meio à tensão geopolítica. O Ibovespa caiu aproximadamente 1%. Na próxima semana, destaque para payroll, ISMs e vendas no varejo nos EUA, inflação na Zona do Euro e PMIs da China. No Brasil, atenção ao Caged e ao PIB.

Recording date: 16th February 2026Gold mining companies are generating unprecedented levels of free cash flow, with major producers like Agnico Eagle reporting more than $11 million per day in Q4 2024 at an average realized gold price near $4,200 per ounce. With gold prices running approximately $800 per ounce higher in the current quarter, that figure is tracking toward $15 million or more per day - a level that is fundamentally reshaping how companies think about capital allocation.Speaking on the Compass podcast, Samuel Pelaez and Derek Macpherson of Olive Resource Capital argued that this cash flow environment gives producers the rare ability to pursue multiple priorities simultaneously: debt reduction, dividend increases, share buybacks, and acquisitions. That flexibility, they noted, sets the current cycle apart from previous periods in the sector.The discussion comes as the mining industry enters its most active conference season of the year. An institutional-focused gathering in Miami is followed shortly by PDAC in Toronto - the world's largest mining conference - beginning around March 1st. Both events are expected to accelerate M&A discussions, as corporate development teams from major miners hold direct meetings with junior company management. Pelaez and Macpherson suggested that transaction announcements could coincide with or immediately follow PDAC.In the near term, Chinese New Year - which began February 17th - introduces a period of thin liquidity across commodity markets as Chinese exchanges close for the week. The hosts characterized any resulting price volatility as mechanical rather than fundamental, and suggested investors treat sell-offs in stocks they already favor as potential entry points.On the macro side, four factors continue to underpin the commodity bull market: expanding US manufacturing PMIs, resilient employment data, continued global liquidity growth, and a US fiscal deficit of approximately $800 billion - the third largest on record - reinforcing the case for hard assets even as the economy grows.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

US equity futures are pointing sharply lower to start the week, with Asian markets broadly higher and European equities trading a weaker open. Markets are reacting to Friday's Supreme Court ruling striking down the IEEPA tariffs, followed immediately by President Trump announcing a new global tariff rate of 10%, later raised to 15% under a different authority. The move has injected fresh uncertainty into the trade landscape, with expectations that the administration will pursue additional trade investigations to restore its effective tariff rate. Questions also remain around potential tariff refunds after the court offered no clear guidance. The ruling and subsequent policy shift come against a backdrop of mixed macro data, including softer flash PMIs, hotter-than-expected core PCE, and below-consensus fourth-quarter GDP. Fed commentary leaned hawkish, with officials highlighting upside inflation risks and signaling that further tightening could return to the table if price pressures reaccelerate. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated amid discussions of a potential limited US strike on Iran, though risk assets had largely shrugged off the headlines late last week.Companies Mentioned: Netflix, TPG, KKR, Fortune Brands Innovations

Michael Reinking, NYSE Senior Market Strategist, recaps a volatile holiday‑shortened week marked by easing inflation and shifting market tone. Softer CPI readings pushed yields to multi‑month lows, while the S&P 500 churned between key moving averages amid options‑driven swings. AI‑related selling showed early signs of thawing, even as geopolitical tensions—especially around Iran—kept oil prices elevated. Economic data remained resilient, highlighted by strong capital goods orders and lower jobless claims. With GDP, PMIs, and major tech earnings on deck, investors head into next week cautiously optimistic but alert to global risks.

The year is starting with solid global momentum. Fading caution, firming in employment, signs of a broadening in non-tech related capex are prompting a bounce in industry—underscored by this week's strong February flash PMIs. While the SCOTUS overturning of US IEEPA tariffs lays down some guardrails, we do not see it materially altering the US war on trade in aggregate. Resilient growth combined with elevated inflation make market pricing for Fed cuts in 2H26 increasingly untenable.   Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton   This podcast was recorded on 20 February 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.  © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe provides a broad market update with all three major stock indices higher (Nasdaq up about 0.75%, S&P 500 up about 0.5%, and Dow up about 0.25%) while interest rates rose slightly, with the 10-year yield up three basis points. He reviews several economic releases, including January FOMC minutes that conveyed a more hawkish tone as inflation was described as slower to return to the 2% target, January industrial production that beat expectations (0.7% vs. 0.4%), and December durable goods orders that fell 1.4% but were better than consensus, with underlying measures stronger (excluding transportation up 0.9%, and core capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft up about 0.67%, roughly double expectations). He notes housing starts and building permits were slightly better than expected but characterizes housing as still stuck due to interest rates, tax law changes, and reduced post-COVID mobility. 00:00 Market Snapshot: Stocks Up, Yields Higher 00:35 Key Economic Releases: Fed Minutes, Production & Durable Goods 01:41 Why Durable Goods Matter: Business Confidence & Capex Signals 02:40 Housing Starts & Permits: Still Stuck in a Range 03:10 Tariffs and GDP Explained: Net Exports, Double-Counting, and Reality 04:47 What's Next This Week: PCE, GDP, PMIs & Consumer Sentiment 05:12 Wrap-Up: Broadly Positive Day + Q&A Invitation Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Santiago de la Torriente, institutional sales de Bellevue Asset Management, analiza cómo fue el 2025 para las empresas de renta variable europeas y cuál fue su rendimiento. ¿Está habiendo una gran rotación dentro de los mercados bursátiles? “La rotación es fruto de unas cadenas de suministro que se están saneando”, afirma el invitado. También añade que se ha dado gracias a “unos planes de expansión de Europa, donde el tejido empresarial europeo lo va a absorber”. ¿Cuáles han sido otros factores fundamentales? El invitado señala que algunos de ellos son “la recuperación de los PMIs” y “el hecho de que la política económica europea, con los tipos a la baja, son un entorno favorable a estas empresas”. El entrevistado analiza las bolsas europeas y como estas les han ido recortando terreno. “El año pasado el dólar hizo estragos en las carteras de los clientes europeos”, afirma el invitado. También destaca que “aunque el S&P hiciese una rentabilidad similar a las compañías europeas, si les quita el 10-11% del dólar, te quedan rendimientos menores”. ¿Cómo influyó esto a los inversores europeos? El experto explica que “este es un factor fundamental por parte los europeos para darse cuenta de que tienen que tener un menor riesgo por la parte de divisas, porque hacen daño”. ¿Los inversores han conseguido valoraciones atractivas o estas empiezan a ser exigentes? El institutional sales de Bellevue Asset Management aclara que “las presentaciones de resultados están siendo buenas, las compañías están creciendo y a pesar de que las acciones hayan tenido un buen comportamiento, esas valoraciones siguen siendo atractivas”. ¿Por qué las pequeñas compañías europeas tienen estas valoraciones más bajas? Santiago de la Torriente explica que “a nivel de deuda están en línea con la media” y que “los márgenes no han hecho más que ampliarse en los últimos cinco años”.

APAC stocks pressured with several bearish factors weighing, incl. the partial US shutdown, weak Chinese PMIs & NVIDIA's OpenAI investment stalling.DXY rangebound, EUR firmer but below 1.19. USD/JPY initially benefited from Takaichi's remarks, though subsequent clarification unwound this.Fixed benchmarks mixed, JGBs benefit from the latest election polling.Crude benchmarks hit alongside APAC stocks, OPEC+ maintained the pause as expected. Spot gold continued to falter, base peers hit by the Chinese data.Bitcoin hit a trough just below USD 75k before finding a floor.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Speakers including BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bostic, Treasury Refunding Announcement, Earnings from Palantir & NXP Semiconductors.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar… covers a lighter market recap amid Crypto Gathering buzz. Global equities slipped after U.S. services and manufacturing PMIs missed expectations, signaling slowing momentum. Oil jumped over 2% on geopolitical tensions despite rising U.S. inventories. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% while tweaking growth forecasts. Crypto remained subdued, with large Bitcoin buys offset by notable exchange inflows.

O melhor ativo é sempre a boa informação!Quer receber as informações do Morning Call diretamente no seu e-mail? Acesse: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠://l.btgpactual.com/morning_call_spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar. ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar breaks down a packed macro session as delayed U.S. jobs and retail sales data point to a cooling labor market and softer consumer demand. Global equities slip amid weak Eurozone PMIs, while central banks remain in focus across the UK, Europe, and Japan. Oil tumbles to six-month lows on peace-deal optimism, and crypto markets stay pressured despite positive developments for XRP and stablecoin adoption.

The latest trends in US financial asset bubbles (cryptos, gold-silver, Stocks, AI) and what's happening in the real US economy 4th quarter: latest consumer spending stats, manufacturing PMIs, GDP forecasts, etc. Trump moves to boost auto and drug company profits. Will the Fed cut rates in December? Real GDP now flat or declining. Show then discusses latest Europe efforts to grab $160B Russian assets to fund Ukraine and why it's failing. Germany's remilitarization and AfD anti-war party's popularization. Latest Trump-Russia negotiations and anti-corruption moves against Zelensky government. Show concludes with US statistics showing US defense spending 2025 in excess of $2 trillion a year and projected to rise another $.5 trillion under Trump by 2027.

Michael Reinking, Senior Market Strategist at the NYSE, recaps a week marked by the end of a record 43-day government shutdown and fading AI euphoria. Markets wrestled with delayed data and Fed caution on rate cuts as volatility ticked higher. AI stocks cooled after bubble warnings and bearish bets, while investors rotated toward quality and large caps. Crypto weakness and rising VIX added to risk-off signals. The week closed steady, with eyes on earnings, global PMIs, and fresh economic data ahead.

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Michael Every. They'll discuss the geopolitical situation and talk about what it means for markets. https://bit.ly/49AFRuQ    

Our strategists Michelle Weaver and Adam Jonas join analyst Christopher Snyder to discuss the most important themes that emerged from the Morgan Stanley Annual Industrials Conference in Laguna Beach.Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic Strategist.Christopher Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Adam Jonas: And I'm Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley's Embodied AI Strategist.Michelle Weaver: We recently concluded Morgan Stanley's annual industrials conference in Laguna Beach, California, and wanted to share some of the biggest takeaways.It's Tuesday, September 16th at 10am in New York.I want to set the stage for our conversation. The overall tone at the conference was fairly similar to last year with many companies waiting for a broader pickup. And I'd flag three different themes that really emerged from the conference. So first, AI. AI is incredibly important. It appeared in the vast majority of fireside conversations. And companies were talking about AI from both the adopter and the enabler angle. Second theme on the macro, overall companies remain in search of a reacceleration. They pointed to consistently expansionary PMIs or a PMI above 50, a more favorable interest rate environment and greater clarity on tariffs as the key macro conditions for renewed momentum. And then the last thing that came up repeatedly was how are companies going to react to tariffs? And I would say companies overall were fairly constructive on their ability to mitigate the margin impact of tariffs with many talking about both leveraging pricing power and supply chain shifts to offset those impacts. So, Chris, considering all this, the wait for an inflection came up across a number of companies. What were some of your key takeaways on multis, on the macro front? Christopher Snyder: The commentary was stable to modestly improving, and that was really consistent across all of these companies. There are, you know, specific verticals where things are getting better. I would call out data center as one. Non-res construction, as another one, implant manufacturing as one. And there were certain categories where we are seeing deterioration – residential HVAC, energy markets, and agriculture.But we came away more constructive on the cycle because things are stable, if not modestly improving into a rate cut cycle. The concern going in was that we would hear about deteriorating trends and a rate cut would be needed just to stabilize the market. So, we do think that this backdrop is supportive for better industrial growth into 2026.We have been positive on the project or CapEx side of the house. It feels like strength there is improving. We've been more cautious on the short cycle production side of the house. But we are starting to see signs of rate of change. So, when we look into [20]26 and [20]27, we think U.S. industrials are poised for decade high growth. Michelle Weaver: You've had a thesis for a while now that U.S. reshoring is going to be incredibly important and that it's a $10 trillion opportunity. Can you unpack that number? What are some recent data points supporting that and what did you learn at the conference? Christopher Snyder: Some of the recent data points that support this view is U.S. manufacturing construction starts are up 3x post Liberation Day. So, we're seeing companies invest. This is also coming through in commercial industrial lending data, which continues to push higher almost every week and is currently at now record high levels. So, there's a lot of reasons for companies not to invest right now. There's a lot of uncertainty around policy. But seeing that willingness to invest through all of the uncertainty is a big positive because as that uncertainty lifts, we think more projects will come off the sidelines and be unlocked. So, we see positive rate of change on that. What I think is often lost in the reassuring conversation is that this has been happening for the last five years. The U.S. lost share of global CapEx from 2000 when China entered the World Trade Organization almost every year till 2019 when Trump implemented his first wave of tariffs. Since then, the U.S. has taken about 300 basis points of global CapEx share over the last five years, and that's a lot on a $30 trillion CapEx base. So, I think the debate here should be: Can this continue? And when I look at Trump policy, both the tariffs making imports more expensive, but also the incentives lowering the cost of domestic production – we do think these trends are stable. And I always want to stress that this is a game of increments. It's not that the U.S. is going to get every factory. But we simply believe the U.S. is better positioned to get the incremental factory over the next 20 years relative to the prior 20. And the best point is that the baseline growth here is effectively zero. Michelle Weaver: And how does power play into the reshoring story? AI and data centers are generating huge demand for power that well outstrip supply. Is there a risk that companies that want to reshore are not able to do so because of the power constraints?Christopher Snyder: It's a great question. I think it's part of the reason that this is moving more slowly. The companies that sell this power equipment tend to prioritize the data center customers given their scale in magnitude of buying. But ultimately, we think this is coming and it's a big opportunity for U.S. power to extend the upcycle.Manufacturing accounts for 26 percent of the electricity in the country. Data center accounts for about 5 percent. So, if the industrial economy returns to growth, there will be a huge pull on the grid; and I view it as a competitive advantage. If you think about the future of U.S. manufacturing, we're simply taking labor out and replacing it with electricity. That is a phenomenal trade off for the U.S. And a not as positive trade off for a lot of low-cost regions who essentially export labor to the world. I'm sure Adam will have more to say about that. Michelle Weaver: And Adam, I want to bring robotics and humanoid specifically into this conversation as the U.S.' technological edge is a big part of the reshoring story. So how do humanoids fit into reshoring? How much would they cost to use and how could they make American manufacturing more attractive? Adam Jonas: Humanoid robots – we're talking age agentic robots that make decisions from themselves autonomously due to the dual purpose in the military. You know, dual purpose aspect of it makes it absolutely necessary to onshore the technologies.At the same time, humanoid robots actually make it possible to onshore those technologies. Meaning you need; we're not going to be able to replicate manufacturing and onshore manufacturing the way it's currently done in China with their environmental practices and their labor – availability of affordable cheap human labor.Autonomous robots are both the cause of onshoring. And the effect of onshoring at the same time, and it's going to transform every industry. The question isn't so much as which industry will autonomous robots, including humanoids impact? It's what will it not.And we have not yet been able to find anything that it would. When you think about cost to use – we think by 2040 we get to a point where to Chris's point, the marginal cost of work will be some factor of electricity, energy, and some depreciation of that physical plant, or the physical robot itself. And we come up with a, a range of scenarios where centered on around $5 per hour. If that can replace two human workers at $25 an hour, that can NPV to around $200,000 of NPV per humanoid. That's discounting back 15 years from 2040.Michelle, there's 160 million people in the U.S. labor market, so if you just substituted 1 percent of that or 1.6 million people out of the U.S. Labor pool. 1.6 million times $200,000 NPV; that's $320 billion of value, which is worth, well, quite a lot. Quite a lot of money to a lot of companies that are working on this. So, when we get asked, what are we watching, well, in terms of the bleeding edge of the robot revolution, we're watching the Sino-U.S. competition. And I prefer to call it competition. And we're also watching the terra cap companies, the Mag 7 type companies that are quite suddenly and recently and very, very significantly going after physical AI and robotics talent. And increasingly even manufacturing talent. So again, to circle back to Chris's point, if you want evidence of reshoring and manufacturing and advanced manufacturing in this country, look at some of these TMT and tech and AI companies in California. And look at, go on their hiring website and watch all the manufacturing and robotics people that they're trying to hire; and pay a lot of money to do so. And that might be an interesting indicator of where we're going.Michelle Weaver: I want to dig in a little bit more there. We're seeing a lot of the cutting-edge tech coming out of China. Is the U.S. going to be able to catch up?Adam Jonas: Uh, I don't know. I don't know. But I would say what's our alternative. We either catch up enough to compete or we're up for grabs. OK?I would say from our reading and working closely with our team in China, that in many aspects of supply chain, manufacturing, physical AI, China is ahead. And with the passage of time, they are increasingly ahead. We estimate, and we can't be precise here, that China's lead on the U.S. would not only last three to five years, but might even widen three to five years from now. May even widen at an accelerating rate three to five years from now.And so, it brings into play is what kind of environment and what kind of regulatory, and policy decisions we made to help kind of level the playing field and encourage the right kind of manufacturing. We don't want to encourage trailing edge, Victorian era manufacturing in the U.S. We want to encourage, you know, to skate to where the puck is going technology that can help improve our world and create a sustainable abundance rather than an unsustainable one. And so, we're watching China very, very closely. It makes us a little bit; makes me a little bit kind of nervous when we – if we see the government put the thumb on the scale too much.But it's invariably going to happen. You're going to have increased involvement of whichever administration it is in order to kind of set policies that can encourage innovation, education of our young people, repurposing of labor, you know. All these people making machines in this country now. They might get, there may be a displacement over a number of years, if not a generation.But we need those human bodies to do other things in this economy as well. So, we; I don't want to give the impression at all in our scenarios that we don't need people anymore. Michelle Weaver: What are the opportunities and the risks that you see for investors as robotics converges with this broader U.S. manufacturing story? Adam Jonas: Well, Michelle, we see both opportunities and risks. There are the opportunities that you can measure in terms of what portion of global GDP of [$]115 trillion could you look at. I mean, labor alone is $40 trillion.And if you really make humanoid that can do the work of two workers, guess what? You're not going to stop at [$]40 trillion. You're going to go beyond that. You might go multiple beyond that. Talking about the world before AI, robotics and humanoid is like talking about the world before electricity. Or talking about business before the internet. We don't think we're exaggerating, but the proof will be in the capital formation. And that's where we hope we can be of assistance to our clients working together on a variety of investment ideas. But the risks will come and it is our professional responsibility, if not our moral responsibility, to work with our partners across research to talk about those risks. Michelle, if we have labor displacement, go too quickly, there's serious problems. And if you don't, if you don't believe me, go look at, look at you know, the French Revolution or the Industrial Revolution, or Age of Enlightenments. Ages of scientific enlightenment frequently cohabitate times of great social and political turmoil as well. And so, we think that these risks must be seen in parallel if we want to bring forth technologies that can make us more human rather than less human. I'm sorry if I'm coming across as a little preachy, but if you studied robots and labor all day long, it does have that effect on you. So, Michelle, how do you see innovation priorities changing for industrials and investors in this environment?Michelle Weaver: I think it's huge as we're seeing AI and technology broadly diffuse across different segments of the market, it's only becoming more important. About two-thirds of companies at the conference mentioned AI in some way, shape, or form. We know that from transcripts. And we're seeing them continue to integrate AI into their businesses. They're trying to go beyond what we've just seen at the initial edge. So, for example, if I think about what was going on within AI adoption a couple years ago, it was largely adding a chat bot to your website that's then able to handle a lot of customer service inquiries. Maybe you could reduce the labor there a little bit. Now we're starting to see a lot more business specific use cases. So, for example, with an airline, an airline company is using AI to most optimally gate different planes as they're landing to try and reduce connection times. They know which staff needs to go to another flight to connect, which passengers need to move to another flight. They're able to do that much more efficiently. You're seeing a lot on AI being adopted within manufacturing to make manufacturing processes a lot more seamless. So, I think innovation is only going to continue to become more important to not only industrials, but broadly the entire market as well.Clearly the industry is being shaped by adaptability, collaboration, and a focus on innovation. So, Chris, Adam, thank you both for taking the time to talk. Adam Jonas: Always a pleasure. Michelle.Christopher Snyder: Thank you for having us on. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.