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Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang unpack Asia's broadening economic recovery and focus on China's path to market stability in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Laura Wang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Laura Wang: Today – our 2026 macro outlook for Asia with a particular focus on China's equity market.It's Wednesday, December 10th at 10am in Hong Kong.Chetan, as 2025 draws to a close; and if we try to remember what we were thinking about this time last year, I think, probably a lot of the market participants were expecting headwinds going into 2025 on the exports and trade front. But turns out that Asia's export growth is tracking at 8 percent this year so far. What's your explanation for this surprise?Chetan Ahya: Well, yes, Laura, you know, we were all concerned that there will potentially be tariffs, especially on China. And therefore, we were concerned that [the] regions' exports may be affected negatively. However, what has happened is that tech exports have driven the strength in the overall exports for the region. And that is all because of the story on AI and tech development that we have all been watching.But the good news is that non-tech exports will recover in 2026. In fact, that's the key call we are making – that from early next year, you will see that improvement in the U.S. domestic demand that helps Asia's exports. And at the same time, we are expecting that bulk of this tariff-related uncertainty would be behind us. And so those are the two factors we think will support this recovery in non-tech exports in 2026.Laura Wang: That's great. How significant is the shift in exports from tech to non-tech?Chetan Ahya: Well, we think that's very important for [the] regions' economic outlook. Because when you think about the tech exports recovery, it was helpful to keep [the] regions' overall exports growth strong, but it did not have the broader multiplier effect on the economy. So, for example, when you think about the tech exports, it tends to be more capital intensive, and we don't see much benefit on job growth.I think the best example I can give you is when you look at the Taiwan economic numbers. We've seen very strong GDP growth year-to-date. But at the same time, consumption numbers have been very weak. And so, non-tech exports recovery is very important for the broader economic recovery, and that is precisely what we expect in 2026. You will see that broadening out of growth with follow up in CapEx, job growth, and consumption recovery.Laura Wang: Your work suggests that Asia inflation will pick up modestly in 2026. What factors are behind this trend?Chetan Ahya: Well, as the non-tech exports recovery materializes, you should see improvement in capacity utilization across the board in the region. That should reduce the disinflationary pressures that we've been seeing year-to-date. And at the same time, we are expecting that the disinflationary pressures that the region was facing from China is also going to ease in 2026.Laura Wang: How will Asia central banks respond to keep inflation within their comfort zones? And what does this mean for monetary policy across the region in 2026?Chetan Ahya: Well actually, there's not much concern about keeping the inflation within the central bank's comfort zone because what we've seen year-to-date in Asia is that Inflation has been much lower than the central bank's target for a number of economies in the region. And they have been responding to this with more interest rate cuts.But going forward, as disinflationary pressure is reduced, we are expecting that the central banks in the region would end their rate cutting cycle. We should see just about one to two more rate cuts for some of the central banks. And then policy rates should remain largely stable through to the end of 2026.So, Laura, let me come to you now. So, 2025 was a very strong year for China markets. And you see 2026 as a ‘keep it steady' year rather than a breakout year. What does stability look like for investors and companies?Laura Wang: That's right, 2025 was a very good year for China equity market. We saw both MSCI China and Han Sang Index delivering more than 30 percent return in absolute terms. Going into 2026, we see it as a year for investors and for the market to preserve and protect what has been achieved in 2025 so far, but not with significantly much higher upside at this point. This is because the valuation re-reading we've seen so far in 2025 is already more than 30 percent, close to 40 percent.In [20]26, we think the valuation will largely stay at its current level, and further upside for the market will be more driven by solid earnings growth. For 2026, we see MSCI China's earnings growth year-on-year at around 6 percent.Chetan Ahya: So, with that backdrop, Laura, do you expect more inflows into the market next year?Laura Wang: Absolutely. Actually, we have already talked to so many investors on a global basis, and we are seeing much higher level of interest in investing in Chinese equities, particularly in some R&D and innovation heavy sectors.That being said, what we are seeing also is relatively light positioning by global investors in Chinese equities – actually across the board, still a quite sizable underweight, which means there will be much higher room for them to increase their allocation gradually in 2026 back to China.Chetan Ahya: And with the U.S.-China tensions easing a bit, and China doubling down on AI and smart manufacturing, where do you see the real-world opportunities from that?Laura Wang: There will be a lot of opportunities inside Chinese equity market, but we do want to stay with the names that will be delivering very solid earnings growth in the next few years. And we also want to highlight the next five years growth strategy laid out by Chinese policy makers.We want to make sure that we focus on the sectors that are very well aligned with the national growth strategy with a strong focus in R&D and innovation – and that would include AI as well as smart manufacturing, automation, robotics, and biotech. We also have collected very high level of interest from global investors in these sectors.At the same time, as we start to see less deflation pressure in 2026, but still with it potentially persisting into 2027, we want investors to still hold on to some exposure to high quality dividend plays. The steady cash returns from these stocks will help you navigate through some volatilities in the market in next year.Chetan Ahya: So, you expect global investors returning, mainland investors shifting money from savings into stocks, and strong cross-border trading within Hong Kong. What does that mean for market behavior and thematic opportunities?Laura Wang: One very positive development we have observed in 2025 is the strong capital market activities in Hong Kong. Hong Kong at single stock exchange basis actually is the most active IPO market in the world in 2025, and with policy support for Hong Kong to continue as a global financial hub, we expect this trend to continue. So, we are seeing more and more capital market activities happening in Hong Kong and mainland China in the next year. And in terms of thematic opportunities, I already mentioned that opportunities align with the national growth strategy with very heavy innovation and R&D focus. Along these opportunities, we're also heavy recommending investors to focus on thematic opportunities such as anti-evolution, as well as corporate governance reform.That summarizes our New Year outlook for Asia economy as well as China equity market. Chetan, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me.Chetan Ahya: Great speaking with you, Laura.Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Post-FOMC Meeting Market Reaction and Economic Outlook - December 10, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group in Newport Beach discusses the market's reactions to the Federal Reserve's recent actions. On December 10th, 2023, the Federal Reserve concluded its FOMC meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points and adding to its balance sheet, which boosted both the stock and bond markets. The Dow closed up 497 points, with the S&P and Nasdaq also showing gains. Szytel explains the significance of the steepening yield curve, which signals positive economic growth, and reviews the Federal Reserve's future interest rate expectations, unemployment, inflation, and GDP projections. The episode also addresses an op-ed by Muhammad Al Arian regarding the restructuring of The Fed. Overall, the episode provides an optimistic outlook on short-term risk assets and the economy. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights 00:48 Market Reactions and Performance 01:25 Understanding Yield Curves 03:28 Economic Projections and Fed Actions 04:30 Op-Ed Discussion and Final Thoughts 05:17 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Employee Engagement on the Brink In 2024, the globalpercentage of engaged employees fell from 23% to 21%. Engagement has only losttwice in the past 12 years, in 2020 and 2024. Last year's two-point drop inengagement was equal to the decline during the year of COVID-19 lockdowns andshelter-in-place orders.  According to the latest State of the GlobalWorkplace 2025 report, released by Gallup. $9.6 trillion in productivity could be added to theeconomy if the global workforce were fully engaged.That would represent a 9% increase in global GDP. But ifleaders seize the moment, a productivity opportunity awaits. In fact, someorganizations are already enjoying the benefits of a highly engaged workforce.Manager engagement is the key to reversing declining productivity, improvingemployee well-being, and unlocking trillions in economic potential.As Founder of HEARTnomics, Hanna Bauer equips top teams with actionablestrategies to build cultures of resilience and clarity. She is among just 20global Faculty Members for Maxwell Leadership, travelling internationally totrain executive teams in leadership that connects people and performance.Hanna's career includes being a former CEO who led her company toGovernor-recognized success, as well as blazing a trail as the first woman to chairthe Board of Ser Familia.Her work resonates with thousands of leaders andprofessionals online, but Hanna's approach remains incredibly genuine anddown-to-earth. Her speaking style is engaging, relatable, and deeply rooted inpersonal experience and decades of cross-industry leadership.Implementation ExcellenceIt's about having the solutions and knowing how tointegrate the right solutions successfully. Executed with love, you can learnhow excellence becomes vital for delivering quality services that fostercustomer retention and acquisition. She joined me thisweek to tell me more. For more information: https://heartnomics.com/Follow: @HannaBauer

In this episode of the Dental Boardroom Podcast, host Wes Read, CPA and financial advisor at Practice CFO, is joined by Brandon Hobson and Paul for their quarterly deep dive into the stock market, global economy, and what dentists and practice owners should prepare for as 2026 approaches.The episode covers:The Federal Reserve's rate movements and expected leadership changeWhether the current AI wave is a bubble or a true productivity revolutionThe future relevance of the traditional 60/40 investment strategyHow economic shifts impact dentists' borrowing, practice finances, and patient spendingPractice CFO's investment outlook and positioning for 2026A must-listen for dental entrepreneurs and investors navigating today's unpredictable financial landscape.Key Topics & Takeaways1. Federal Reserve Update & Interest RatesCurrent Fed Funds Rate: 3.75%–4%, with another 0.25% cut expected soon.Kevin Hassett is the likely replacement for Jerome Powell in 2026 potentially a more politically influenced choice.Concerns about Fed independence rising due to political pressure.Rate cuts stimulate borrowing but risk inflation if overdone.Importance for dentists:Affects practice loans, buildouts, refinancing, and equipment financing.Impacts patient discretionary spending, especially in cosmetic dentistry.2. Stagflation Risk?Inflation appears stable around the mid-2% range.Unemployment creeping toward 4%.Risk emerges if inflation rises while unemployment increases = “stagflation.”Not yet alarming, but the rate of change is what matters.3. GDP & Economic StrengthU.S. GDP last reading (Q2): 3.8%, stronger than expected.Global GDP remains surprisingly strong despite trade tensions.Q3 & Q4 readings delayed due to government shutdown but expected to stay positive.4. AI: Bubble or Breakthrough?Big tech's AI infrastructure spend expected to hit $3 trillion by 2028.53% of investors believe we are in an AI bubble.OpenAI & NVIDIA valuations are 30–40× revenue, compared to Walmart at 1.3×.MIT study: 95% of companies currently see no ROI from AI.Major concerns:Revenue lag vs. massive AI investmentCircular funding structures (promising investments without cash to fulfill them)Big tech taking on debt to fund AI (Meta's off-balance-sheet financing)Parallel drawn to the dot-com era huge innovation + huge speculative hype.5. What About the Magnificent Seven?High valuations and interconnected dependence create contagion risk.NVIDIA's unusually high profit margins may attract new competition.Some tech (like Google, Meta) still offers strong fundamentals & cash flow.But investors should avoid blindly overweighting tech indexes.6. Is the Classic 60/40 Portfolio Back?After years of underperformance, value stocks and quality companies are regaining momentum.PracticeCFO's positioning:Lower tech exposure (15–18% vs. S&P 35–40%)Higher weight in value, quality, and cash-flow-focused companies20–40% international stocks for diversificationAI benefits will extend to all sectors consumer staples may monetize AI faster and cheaper than...

This week, Paul and Goldy look back at the most notable economics books of the year. They discuss Ezra Klein and David Thompson's Abundance, Cory Doctorow's blistering Enshittification, Thomas Piketty's new works on inequality, Diane Coyle's fresh take on GDP, and the overlooked history behind the Garland Fund. Whether you're hunting for a holiday gift for the wonk in the family or looking to understand the ideas driving today's political economy, this episode is full of must-reads.  Must-Read Economics Books 2025 Abundance by Ezra Klein and David Thompson Enshittification: Why Everything Suddenly Got Worse and What to Do About It by Cory Doctorow Equality Is a Struggle by Thomas Piketty Nature, Culture, and Inequality by Thomas Piketty Equality: What It Means and Why It Matters by Thomas Piketty and Michael J. Sandel The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters by Diane Coyle The Radical Fund: How a Band of Visionaries and a Million Dollars Upended America by John Fabian Witt Honorable Mention Ricardo's Dream: How Economists Forgot the Real World and Led Us Astray By Nat Dyer  Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies by Cesar Hidalgo  Coming Up Short: A Memoir of My America by Robert Reisch  Mood Machine: The Rise of Spotify and the Costs of the Perfect Playlist Liz Pelly  Other Books Mentioned in Episode Homelessness is a Housing Problem by Greg Colburn & Clayton Page Aldern Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress--And How to Bring It Back by Marc Dunkelman Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty The Gardens of Democracy: A New American Story of Citizenship, the Economy, and the Role of Government by Nick Hanauer & Eric Liu  Communist Manifesto by Karl Marx  Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Facebook: Pitchfork Economics Podcast Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics TikTok: @pitchfork_econ YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer Substack: ⁠The Pitch⁠

Around the world, people feel poorer, even when the numbers say we've never been richer. In Ireland, GDP is soaring, household wealth has more than doubled since 2014, and yet most families are pinned to their collar. Why? Because the official poverty line is €33,600, but it now takes at least €52,000 a year just to stay afloat. That's a 40% gap between what's measured and what's felt. Rent has passed €2,000 a month, groceries are up 16% in a year, childcare can cost over €1,000 monthly, and still we're told the economy is “booming.” Inspired by Michael Green's viral Substack and Kyla Scanlon's “vibecession,” we unpack the growing chasm between income and cost, and how it's fuelling backlash, burnout, and political blowback from New York to Newbridge. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On November 30, six million Hondurans voted in their presidential election. One week later, the outcome of the election has not yet been announced due to credible allegations of fraud and illegal interference by the Trump administration, which includes threats of ending remittances from the United States that account for 25% of Hondura's GDP. Clearing the FOG speaks with Camila Escalante of Press TV and a founder of Kawsachun News who has covered Latin America for nearly ten years. Escalante provides background to the current political crisis and explains what is known so far about the election. She describes similarities to the 2019 coup in Bolivia. For more information, visit PopularResistance.org.

⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar ⬜ In today's update, Palvatar highlights a pivotal week ahead as markets brace for a widely expected Fed rate cut, though economists anticipate an unusually contentious meeting. Global data surprised, with Germany's industrial production jumping and China's trade surplus surpassing $1 trillion, while Japan posted a sharp GDP contraction. Crypto markets surged, bitcoin reclaimed $92,000, and Binance secured approval to relocate its headquarters to Abu Dhabi.

In today's episode, the Chicks sit down with Bulwark Capital's Zach Abraham to break down a viral interview with Federal Reserve Governor about Trump's plan for mass deportations and what it could mean for inflation, GDP, housing, and the long-term U.S. economy. Zach explains why removing millions of Biden-era illegal immigrants could create disinflation, reduce crime […]

Erik Weir, author of Who's Eating Your Pie?: Essential Financial Advice that Will Transform Your Life, joins The Steve Gruber Show for a timely discussion about America's economic outlook heading into the holidays. With some analysts, like Bessent, projecting roughly 3% GDP growth by year's end, Erik breaks down what those numbers could mean for everyday Americans, from holiday spending to long-term financial stability.

由一口都不想浪費的【味味一品】贊助播出！忙碌一天後，來碗熱騰騰的泡麵，湯暖胃，麵入味，瞬間忘卻加班的疲勞，療癒你的是那熟悉的溫暖感。味味一品，讓你每一次的疲憊都能得到舒緩。全台各大通路熱賣中！ https://fstry.pse.is/8f7uwc —— 以上為 Firstory Podcast 廣告 —— 由一口都不想浪費的【味味一品】贊助播出！忙碌一天後，來碗熱騰騰的泡麵，湯暖胃，麵入味，瞬間忘卻加班的疲勞，療癒你的是那熟悉的溫暖感。味味一品，讓你每一次的疲憊都能得到舒緩。全台各大通路熱賣中！ https://fstry.pse.is/8f7ulm —— 以上為 Firstory Podcast 廣告 —— **2025年，全球經濟在美國降息與AI狂潮的交織下加速前行，台灣更站在這波浪潮的風口浪尖。今天我們特別專訪台新金控首席經濟學家李鎮宇博士。面對詭譎的地緣政治與川普2.0變局，台新投顧近期逆勢喊出2025年台灣GDP成長率將挑戰7.23%的超樂觀預測，遠超官方預期。究竟這股由美系科技巨頭資本支出引爆的動力，是台灣經濟的超級強心針，還是資產泡沫的前奏？當科技業獨領風騷，傳統產業與庶民經濟又該何去何從？讓我們透過李博士的精準眼光，一同拆解從AI榮景到2026年潛在危機的經濟真相。 **「2026 台新投資展望論壇」，台新新光金控首席經濟學家李鎮宇回顧 2025 年經濟學家普遍的預測失準現象，就是犯了二大錯誤：誤判川普與低估 AI，若不矯正思維，2026 年仍會重蹈覆轍。李鎮宇更大膽預測，在美國總統川普主導下，聯準會將啟動「鷹式降息」(快速、大幅度)，預計從現在到明年底至少降息 6 碼以上，美國也將進入「三低經濟」情境，分別為低利率、低賦稅、低監管。 #寶島聯播網 #鄭弘儀 #寶島全世界 #李鎮宇 #台新新光金控 #TPU #GPU #Google #輝達 #TSMC #台積電 #AI #ai泡沫 加入會員，支持節目： https://clw4248xv113d01wg7s4h2xnq.firstory.io/join 留言告訴我你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/user/clw4248xv113d01wg7s4h2xnq/comments Powered by Firstory Hosting

Welcome back to another episode of Upside at the EUVC Podcast, where ⁠Dan Bowyer⁠,⁠ Mads Jensen⁠ of ⁠SuperSeed⁠, ⁠Lomax Ward⁠ of ⁠Outsized Ventures⁠⁠⁠, and Andrew Scott of 7percent Ventures to break down the real stories behind the headlines shaping European tech and venture.From Bending Spoons' audacious European rollup strategy, to Brexit's economic hangover, to the existential challenges facing Volkswagen, to Google vs. OpenAI's new “Code Red”, and finally whether Europe has had its long-overdue shock moment — this episode goes wide, fast, and deep.This is Upside, where the takes are sharp, the macro is messy, and the optimism is… conditional.What's covered:02:00 The valuation reset, debt-fuelled M&A, and the Italian PE–VC hybrid model04:00 Arbitrage: firing US teams, rehiring elite Italian engineers06:00 Do rollups really work? Tech debt, distribution, and execution risk07:00 Brexit revisited: GDP losses, trade collapse, and political reality08:00 The myth of “you can't know the counterfactual” — and why you actually can10:00 Will the UK rejoin the customs union? And would Europe even take us back?12:00 Europe's manufacturing crisis: Porsche, Volkswagen, BYD and the end of German exceptionalism15:00 China's shift: stop importing, start replicating17:00 Welfare-state complacency and the European stagnation problem20:00 The bitter truth about Europe's carbon “success story”22:00 How to actually fix European tech: R&D, immigration, procurement, capital markets24:00 Why 0.02% pension allocation to VC is Europe's biggest structural handicap26:00 Should we “Farage-pill” Europe into a tech-first agenda?33:00 Distribution vs. loyalty: why consumers don't care about brand36:00 Who wins the cost base war: Google, Amazon, Meta, or OpenAI?38:00 Anthropic's IPO plans and what they signal about the private capital cycle42:00 Deals of the Week: Black Forest Labs, ICEYE, Expedition Growth Capital44:00 Robotics is the next AI wave — and the picks-and-shovels startups emerging now

Episode 296 is a first for The Business Development Podcast – we finally dive deep into Canada's French-speaking community and what most business leaders are missing. Kelly sits down with bilingual consultant Colin Fagnan, founder of Nyloc Consulting (and now Executive Director of the Fort Saskatchewan & Lamont County Regional Chamber of Commerce), to unpack how growing up Francophone in Alberta shaped his worldview, why French is actually on the rise in Western Canada, and how bilingualism boosts learning, creativity, and problem-solving in business. Colin shares his own story of moving between countries and cultures, and why he believes language is a strategic asset, not just a personal skill.From there, the conversation shifts into hard business reality: the sheer GDP locked inside Francophone markets, how tourism and immigration are changing Alberta's economic landscape, and why so many companies hit an invisible wall when dealing with Quebec or French-speaking clients. Colin breaks down where the real opportunities are, how immersion education has quietly transformed the next generation, and what leaders can do right now to better serve French speakers at home and abroad. If you've ever thought “French is only for back East,” this episode will challenge that belief and show you a very real growth path hiding in plain sight.Key Takeaways: 1. The Francophone community in Canada is not just cultural it is a massive, under-served economic market that most businesses simply ignore.2. Bilingualism is a competitive advantage because it helps you build trust faster with customers partners and communities who rarely feel truly seen.3. Language is not just translation it is context nuance and relationship and if you get that wrong you will lose deals you never see.4. Western Canada massively underestimates how many French speakers live work and travel here which means the businesses who serve them well can stand out quickly.5. Immersion and bilingual education are quietly creating a new generation of leaders who think globally and move comfortably between markets and cultures.6. Companies that want to do business in Quebec or with Francophone clients need to show real respect for the language and culture not just slap French on a brochure.7. Tourism and immigration are reshaping local economies and the businesses that prepare to serve visitors and newcomers in both languages will win first.8. If you do not have internal bilingual capacity yet you can start small by partnering with translators consultants or community leaders who understand the space.9. Treat French speaking customers like a primary market not a side note and you will uncover long term loyalty repeat business and powerful word of mouth.10. The real opportunity is not just learning French it is deciding that language inclusion can be part of your business development strategy and then taking action on it.The Catalyst Club is my private community for founders and business development leaders who want real support, real strategy and real momentum together. Join us here:https://www.kellykennedyofficial.com/thecatalystclubCompanies mentioned in this episode: Fort Saskatchewan and Lamont County Regional Chamber of Commerce Capital Business Development NYLOC Consulting CDEA Conseil de Développement Économique de l'Alberta Parallèle Alberta National Bank Financial

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In today's episode, the Chicks sit down with Bulwark Capital's Zach Abraham to break down a viral interview with Federal Reserve Governor about Trump's plan for mass deportations and what it could mean for inflation, GDP, housing, and the long-term U.S. economy. Zach explains why removing millions of Biden-era illegal immigrants could create disinflation, reduce crime and government spending, and finally ease the pressure on the housing market. They also dig into the constitutional power of the executive branch, why the Fed has failed for decades, and how unchecked immigration fuels chaos at every level. Plus: Soros networks, globalism, sovereignty, assimilation, and raising “dragon killers” in a world gone mad.Get back to basics with Bulwark's Know Your Risk Portfolio Review—don't put it off, go to KnowYourRiskPodcast.com today.Subscribe and stay tuned for new episodes every weekday!Follow us here for more daily clips, updates, and commentary:YoutubeFacebookInstagramTikTokXLocalsMore Info

賴清德近期提出強化防衛韌性特別條例及預算規劃，預計未來8年內投入1.25兆元，應對中共對台發動的統戰和滲透。從國安會掌握到的情資看來，中共對台的非軍事化侵略究竟有多嚴重？特別編列1.25兆元聚焦打造「台灣之盾」，和過往戰略有何不同？習近平下令共軍2027年做好攻台準備，特別預算卻分8年執行，是否根本就緩不濟急？2027對全球和中國有何特殊意義？總統府、國安會、軍方都傳出有人員被中共滲透，賴清德提出恢復軍事法庭，但遭到藍白在立院阻擋，以目前國會僵持之勢，國防預算能過關嗎？民進黨是否考慮比照蔡英文任內的四大公投，動員府院黨之力向全民宣講，訴諸民意反制立院？國民黨高舉的九二共識，為何應該定為不可逾越的紅線？國民黨副主席蕭旭岑提出的的「一國兩區」天真在哪？個別中配煽動武統，政府在言論標準的認定上是否雙標？美國對台軍售武器延遲到貨，川普上任後一度暫停批准對台軍售，直到最近才有進展，疑美論甚囂塵上，台灣政府有何作為？民防小橘書引發熱議，如何幫助民眾準備應對危機？精彩訪談內容，請鎖定@華視三國演議！ 本集來賓：#林飛帆 #矢板明夫 主持人：#汪浩 以上言論不代表本台立場 #國防預算 #台灣之盾 #統戰 #一國兩制 電視播出時間

Live from the Morgan Stanley Global Consumer & Retail Conference, our analysts discuss how AI is reshaping the future of shopping in the U.S.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. We're coming to you live from Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer and Retail Conference in New York City, where we have more than 120 leading companies in attendance. Today's episode is the second part of our live discussion of the U.S. consumer and how AI is changing consumer companies. With me on stage, we have Arunima Sinha from the Global and U.S. Economics team, Simeon Guttman, our U.S. Hardlines, Broad Lines, and Food Retail Analyst, and Megan Clap, U.S. Food Producers and Leisure Analyst. It's Friday, December 5th at 10am in New York. So, Simeon, I want to start with you. You recently put out a piece assessing the AI race. Can you take us through how you're assessing current AI implementation? And can you give us some real-world examples of what it looks like when a company significantly integrates AI into their business? Simeon Gutman: Sure. So, the Consumer Discretionary and Staples teams went to each of their covered companies, and we started searching for what those companies have disclosed and communicated regarding their AI. In some cases, we used AI to do this search. But we created a search and created this universe of factors and different ways AI is being implemented. We didn't have a framework until we had the entire universe of all of these AI use cases. Once we did, then we were able to compartmentalize them. And the different groups; we came up with six groups that we were able to cluster. First, personalization and refined search; second, customer acquisition; third product innovation; fourth, labor productivity; fifth, supply chain and logistics. And lastly, inventory management. And using that framework, we were able to rank companies on a 1 to 10 scale. Across – that was the implementation part – across three different dimensions: breadth, how widely the AI is deployed across those categories; the depth, the quality, which we did our best to be able to interpret. And then the last one was proprietary initiatives. So, that's partnerships, could be with leading AI firms. So that helped us differentiate the leaders with others, not necessarily laggards, but those who were ahead of in the race. In some cases, companies that have communicated more would naturally scream more, so there is some potential bias in that. But otherwise, the fact pattern was objective. Walmart has full scale AI deployment. They're integrated across their business. They've introduced GenAI tools. That's like their Sparky shopping assistant. As well as integrated to in-store features. They talked about it. It's been driving a 25 percent increase in average shopper spend. They've recently partnered with OpenAI to enable ChatGPT powered Search and Checkout, positioning where the company, where the customer is shopping. They're also layering on augmented reality for holiday shopping, computer vision for shelf monitoring. LLMs for inventory replenishment. Autonomous lifts, the list goes on and on. But it covers all the functional categories in our framework. Michelle Weaver: And how about a couple examples of the ways companies are using these? Any interesting real world use cases you've seen so far? Simeon Gutman: So, one of them was in marketing personalization, as well as in product cataloging. That was one of the more sided themes at this conference. So, it was good timing. So, the idea is when product is staged on a company's website; I don't think we all appreciate how much time and many hours and people and resources it takes to get the correct information, to get the right pictures and to show all the assortment – those type of functions AI is helping enable. And it sounds like we're on the cusp of a step change in personalization. It sounds like AI, machine learning or algorithm driven suggestions to consumers. We didn't get practical use cases, but a lot of companies talked about the deployment of this into 2026, which sounds like it's something to look forward to. Michelle Weaver: And Megan, how would you describe AI adoption in your space in terms of innings and what kind of criteria are you using to assess the future for AI opportunity and potential? Megan Clapp: Yeah, I would say; I'd characterize adoption in the Food and broader Staples space today is still relatively early innings. I think most companies are still standing up the data infrastructure, experimenting with various tools. We're seeing companies pilot early use cases and start to talk about them, and that was evident in the work we did with the note that Simeon just talked about. And so, the opportunity, I think, going ahead, lies in kind of what we see in terms of scaling those pilots to become more impactful. And for Staples broadly, and Food, you know, ties into this. I think, these companies start with an advantage and that they sit on a tremendous amount of high frequency consumption data. So, the data availability is quite large. The question now is, you know, can these large organizations move with speed and translate that data into action? And that's something that we're focused on when we think about feasibility. I think we think about the opportunity for Food and Staples broadly as we'd put it into kind of two areas. One is what can they do on the top line? Marketing, innovation, R&D, kind of the lifeblood of CPG companies, and that's where we're seeing a lot of the early use cases. I think ultimately that will be the most important driver – driving top line, you know, tends to be the most important thing in most consumer companies. But then on the other side, there are a lot of cost efforts, supply chain savings, labor productivity. Those are honestly a bit easier to quantify. And we're seeing real tangible things come out of that. But overall I think the way we think about it is the large companies with scale and the ability to go after the opportunity because they have the scale and the balance sheet to do so – will be winners here, as well as the smaller, more nimble companies that, you know, can move a little bit faster. And so that's how we're thinking about the opportunity. Michelle Weaver: Can you give us also just a couple examples of AI adoption that's been successful that you've seen so far? Megan Clapp: Yeah, so on the top line side, like I said, kind of marketing innovation, R&D. One quick example on the Food side. Hershey, for example, they're using algorithms to reallocate advertising spend by zip code, based on the real time sell through. So, they can just be much more targeted and more efficient, honestly, with that advertising spend. I think from an innovation perspective too, these companies are able to identify on trend things faster and incorporate that and take the idea to shelf time down significantly. And then on the cost side, you know, General Mills is a company is actually relatively, far ahead, I'd say, in the AI adoption curve in Staples broadly. And what they've done is deployed what they call digital twins across their network, and it has improved forecast accuracy. They've taken their historical productivity savings from 4 percent annually to 5 percent. That's something that's structural. So, seeing real tangible benefits that are showing up in the PNL. And so, I think broadly the theme is these companies are using AI to make faster, and more precise decisions. And then I thought, I'd just mention on the leisure side, something that I felt was interesting that we learned from Shark Ninja yesterday at the conference is – when asked about the role of Agentic AI in future commerce, thinks it'll be huge was how he described; the CEO described it. And what they're doing actively right now is optimizing their D2C website for LLMs like ChatGPT and Gemini. And his point was that what drives conversion on D2C today may not ultimately be what ranks on AI driven search. But he said the expectation is that by Christmas of next year, commerce via these AI platforms will be meaningful; mentioned that OpenAI is already experimenting with curated product transactions. So, they're really focused on optimizing their portfolio. He thinks brands will win; but you have got to get ahead of it as well. Michelle Weaver: And that's great that you just brought up Agentic commerce. We've heard about it quite a bit over the past couple of days, Simeon. And I know you recently put out a big piece on this theme. Agentic commerce introduces a lot of possibility for incremental sales, but it also introduces the possibility for cannibalization. Where do you see this shaking out in your space? Are you really concerned about that cannibalization possibility? Simeon Gutman: Yeah, so the larger debate is a little bit of sales cannibalization and a potential bit of retail media cannibalization. So, your first point is Agentic theoretically opens up a bigger e-commerce penetration and just more commerce. And once you go to more e-commerce, that could be beneficial for some of these companies. We can also put the counter argument of when e-commerce came, direct-to-consumer type of selling could disintermediate the captive retailer sales again. Maybe, maybe not. Part of this answer is we created a framework to think about what retailers can protect themselves most from this. Two of them; two of the five I's are infrastructure and inventory. So, the more that your inventory is forward position, the more infrastructure you have; the AI and the agent will still prioritize that retailer within that network. That business will likely not go elsewhere. And that's our premise. Now, retail media is a different can of worms. We don't know what models are going to look like. How this interaction will take place? We don't know who controls the data. The transactions part of this conference is we were hearing, ‘Well, the retailers are going to control some of the data and the transaction.' Will consumers feel comfortable giving personal information, credit card to agents? I'm sure at some point we'll feel comfortable, but there are these inertia points and these are models that are getting worked out today. There's incentives for the hyperscalers to be part of this. There's incentive for the retailers to be part of it. But we ultimately don't know. What we do know is though forward position inventory is still going to win that agent's business if you need to get merchandise quickly, efficiently. And if it's a lot of merchandise at once. Think about the largest platforms that have been investing in long tail of product and speed to getting it to that consumer. Michelle Weaver: And Arunima, I want to bring this back to the macro as well. As AI adoption starts to ramp the labor market then starts to get called into question. Is this going to be automation or is it going to be augmentation as you see a ramp in AI adoption? So how are your expectations for AI being factored into your forecast and what are you expecting there? Arunima Sinha: There are two ways that we think about just sort of AI spending mattering for our growth forecasts. One part is literally the spend, the investment in the data centers and the chips and so on. And then the other is just the rise in productivity. So, does the labor or does the human capital become more productive? And if we sum both of those things together, we think that over 2026 – [20]27, they add anywhere between 40-45 basis points to growth. And just to put things in perspective, our GDP growth estimate for the end of this year in 2026 is 1.8 percent. For 2027, it's 2.0 percent. So, it's an important part of that process. In terms of the labor market itself, the work that you have led, as well as the work that we've been doing – which is this question about adoption at the macro level, that's still fairly low. We look at the census data that tracks larger companies or mid-size companies on a monthly basis to say, ‘How much did you use AI tools in the last couple of weeks.' And that's been slowly increasing, but it's still sort of in the mid-teens in terms of how many companies have been using as a percentage. And so, we think that adoption should continue to increase. And as that does, for now, we think it is going to be a compliment to labor. Although there are some cohorts within sort of demographic cohorts in terms of ages that are probably going to be disproportionately impacted, but we don't think that that's a sort of near term 2026 story. Michelle Weaver:  Well, thank you all for joining us and please follow Thoughts on the Market wherever you listen to podcasts. Thank you to our panel participants for this engaging discussion and to our live and podcast audiences. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

If you think America's schools fell into decline solely as a consequence of 2020's pandemic and a year of alternate instruction models, guess again. Eric Hanushek, the Hoover Institution's Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow and a leading scholar on the economics of education, discusses misperceptions in the Covid-education debate (learning and achievement were in decline years before the pandemic struck), why education reform remains elusive despite decades of talk and treasure, a few sleeper concerns (long-term absenteeism), lessons to be learned from learning and teaching innovations in Dallas and Mississippi, plus the future impact of learning loss on earning power and America's GDP.

The latest trends in US financial asset bubbles (cryptos, gold-silver, Stocks, AI) and what's happening in the real US economy 4th quarter: latest consumer spending stats, manufacturing PMIs, GDP forecasts, etc. Trump moves to boost auto and drug company profits. Will the Fed cut rates in December? Real GDP now flat or declining. Show then discusses latest Europe efforts to grab $160B Russian assets to fund Ukraine and why it's failing. Germany's remilitarization and AfD anti-war party's popularization. Latest Trump-Russia negotiations and anti-corruption moves against Zelensky government. Show concludes with US statistics showing US defense spending 2025 in excess of $2 trillion a year and projected to rise another $.5 trillion under Trump by 2027.

Hugh Hendry, "The Acid Capitalist," returns to the Julia La Roche Show. Hendry breaks down his "macro compass" portfolio framework: 25% equities (overweight Japanese stocks after their 35-year breakout), 25% US treasuries (buying TLT after a 50% decline), 25% alternatives (Bitcoin over gold due to market cap), and 25% strategic cash. His thesis: the treasury market is so large (100% of GDP) that it's prevented inflation despite massive deficit spending, but AI will cause 20% unemployment within 2-3 years. That unemployment will force governments into redistribution mode, finally breaking the system's ability to contain inflation. He discusses why tech valuations are near peak, why the yen carry trade matters, and why sterling may be the first major currency to collapse as the UK's service economy gets hit hardest by AI displacement.Hendry founded Eclectica Asset Management, a global macro hedge fund that was pretty much uncorrelated to everything in the financial universe. Hugh started Eclectica in 2002 and ran for 15 years before closing in 2017. He made more than 30% in 2008 betting against banks.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/hendry_hugh Substack: https://hughhendry.substack.com/Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-acid-capitalist-podcast/id1511187978 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@HughHendryOfficial00:00 - Intro00:52 - The macro compass: 4 quadrant portfolio framework03:52 - Quadrant 1: Equities & why Hugh loves Japanese stocks06:10 - Pattern recognition: Buying 35-year breakouts08:32 - Quadrant 2: US treasuries (TLT) after 50% collapse10:35 - The AI singularity & 20% unemployment prediction12:48 - Cheap labor is over: The end of the China era15:07 - Why corporations will shed jobs (but won't admit it yet)18:37 - Quadrant 3: Gold vs Bitcoin - market cap analysis22:03 - Why Hugh prefers Bitcoin over gold25:46 - The currency quadrant: Which currencies to hold28:15 - Why the dollar may weaken despite being "king"32:28 - Hugh's trade of the year: Yen carry unwind38:42 - The reflexivity problem: AI makes everything cheaper43:15 - Why we didn't get hyperinflation despite massive printing48:29 - The treasury market as a "fire gap" stopping inflation53:14 - Tech valuations: Are we in a bubble?58:36 - Why Hugh thinks we're near peak valuations1:02:44 - Why the treasury market stopped inflation (100% of GDP)1:04:31 - The chaos trigger: 20% unemployment will break everything1:05:00 - Youth unemployment & the rise of socialist politics1:06:23 - NYC mayor & the "no billionaires" movement1:07:06 - The UK disaster: Disability spending & currency collapse1:09:34 - Sterling as first currency casualty of AI

Canada is in the midst of reframing its approach to military spending. The reasons for this are twofold; a commitment to fulfilling NATO spending as part of GDP, and the push to diversify spending away from the U.S. To that end, Prime Minister Mark Carney has recently signed a deal joining the EU's military procurement fund, granting Canada access to both selling and purchasing defence materiel.Steven Chase, The Globe's senior parliamentary reporter, is on the show to discuss what this means for our burgeoning national defence industry, the political considerations involved, and where our national armed forces go from here.Questions? Comments? Ideas? E-mail us at thedecibel@globeandmail.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

– Brickbats and bouquets from GDP – The ABS wants to count illegal cigarettes – Are Governments finally choosing fiscal responsibility?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Évek óta stagnál a magyar gazdaság teljesítménye, amit Nagy Márton nemzetgazdasági miniszter rendre a szomszédos orosz-ukrán háborúra és a német gazdaságra szokott fogni. A napokban jelent meg a harmadik negyedéves GDP-adat, amiből azt látjuk, hogy továbbra sem ért el minket a repülőrajt. Miért nem? Erről beszélgetünk Haász Jánossal, a 444 gazdasági újságírójával. Bővebben: 00:00:00 - Hol van a repülőrajtunk? Végülis eltelt az év recesszió nélkül. Túlzott optimizmus, békeköltségvetés, irreális várakozások. Mi történik, ha a Kazincbarcika elmegy a Barcelonához játszani? 00:04:27 - Nagy Márton és az ő magyarázatai. Nem lehetne legalább egyszer elérhető célokat betervezni? 00:10:53 - A lakosság fogyasztásra ösztönzése sem megy túl jól, pedig a kormány nem sajnálja a befektetett energiát (sem semmi mást, ha osztogatásról van szó). Hangulatjavító intézkedések -> politikai haszon. 00:15:01 - Rejtély, miért nem sikerül eltalálni azokat a számokat. Jó tanács: az semmiképp sem a jó megoldás, ha a szakadékba ugrunk bele. 00:17:27 - Miért baj az, ha nem nő a gazdaság? Nyugodt szívvel fogadjuk el a hagyományos közgazdasági elméleteket. Csakhogy ha a magyar politikai elit valamit megtanult az őszödi beszédből, az az, hogy nem beszélünk arról, hogy baj van. 00:20:59 - Se kiszámíthatóság, se megbízhatóság. A sarki boltban elromlott a második szalag is. Sebaj, hozzászokik az ember. 00:24:11 - Jó, de mi lenne, ha béke lenne? Egyáltalán: milyen típusú békével számol az Orbán-kormány? 00:29:23 - Brüsszel. Hát, igen. Az uniós pénzek ugyan nem jönnek, az éves költségvetésbe mégis folyton betervezik őket. Ha te betervezed a család havi büdzséjébe, hogy mennyit nyersz a Tippmixen, abból azért baj lehet. 00:34:17 - Mire számíthatunk jövőre? Egyelőre április 12-ig látunk. Ha estig megvan a három tüske, majd lesz valami. 00:37:02 - A közhangulat jön föl, mint a talajvíz. Januárban újabb pénzszórás várható. Kár, hogy a jövő év nem április 12-ig tart. Olvasnivalók: Nagy Márton: Nem értem, miket hablatyol itt mindenki össze Hátulról 4. a magyar gazdaság Európában, a valóság rácáfolt Nagy Márton magyarázataira Nyoma nincs a kilábalásnak: az ipar szenved, beruházások nincsenek, és már a vásárlókedv is hanyatlik Dohánygyár#2: Repülőrajtot vett az áttörés éve, előre a negatív siker felé! Kérdés, kérés, javaslat, meglátás -> dohanygyar@444.hu Hang: Botos Tamás/444See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

-The Minnesota corruption saga grows so large it might qualify as its own GDP, and Rob gleefully predicts the political downfall of Walz, Ellison, and possibly Ilhan Omar. -Kaitlin Bennett joins on the Newsmax hotline, recounting her campus adventures where college students flee debates faster than they flee Thanksgiving history lessons. Today's podcast is sponsored by : BIRCH GOLD - Protect and grow your retirement savings with gold. Text ROB to 98 98 98 for your FREE information kit!WEBROOT : Live a better digital life with Webroot Total Protection. Rob Carson Show listeners get 60% off at http://webroot.com/Newsmax  To call in and speak with Rob Carson live on the show, dial 1-800-922-6680 between the hours of 12 Noon and 3:00 pm Eastern Time Monday through Friday…E-mail Rob Carson at : RobCarsonShow@gmail.com Musical parodies provided by Jim Gossett (http://patreon.com/JimGossettComedy) Listen to Newsmax LIVE and see our entire podcast lineup at http://Newsmax.com/Listen Make the switch to NEWSMAX today! Get your 15 day free trial of NEWSMAX+ at http://NewsmaxPlus.com Looking for NEWSMAX caps, tees, mugs & more? Check out the Newsmax merchandise shop at : http://nws.mx/shop Follow NEWSMAX on Social Media:  -Facebook: http://nws.mx/FB  -X/Twitter: http://nws.mx/twitter -Instagram: http://nws.mx/IG -YouTube: https://youtube.com/NewsmaxTV -Rumble: https://rumble.com/c/NewsmaxTV -TRUTH Social: https://truthsocial.com/@NEWSMAX -GETTR: https://gettr.com/user/newsmax -Threads: http://threads.net/@NEWSMAX  -Telegram: http://t.me/newsmax  -BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/newsmax.com -Parler: http://app.parler.com/newsmax Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kelly Loeffler, 28th Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration, joined The Guy Benson Show today to discuss her investigation into PPP and EIDL fraud identified by the SBA, including the ongoing Minnesota fraud case involving more than a billion dollars allegedly funneled through the Somali community in the state. Loeffler also broke down the strong state of the U.S. economy, which is proven by indicator such as strong GDP growth, job creation, confidence, and spending. Loeffler also acknowledged the disconnect between those positive indicators and how Americans are feeling on the ground, but noted the progress the Trump admin has made as they work to climb after the economic damage of the Biden years. Listen to the full interview below! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its latest outlook for U.S. and worldwide growth for 2026. The general sentiment is that economic growth will remain positive next year, but it will moderate in the U.S. and most other countries.GDP in the U.S. is projected to slow from 2.0% in 2025 to 1.7% in 2026. Headline consumer price growth in the U.S., also known as inflation, is expected to rise from 2.7% in 2025 to 3.0% in 2026 before moderating to 2.3% in 2027.From a multifamily perspective, the higher prices for goods and services are a threat to rent growth bouncing back next year after a sluggish 2025.The report also noted downside risks to the U.S. labor market in the near term, as well as reforms needed to boost housing supply and infrastructure.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said he told President Donald Trump he would accept the nomination to replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair if the job was offered, adding that he would prefer a larger interest-rate cut when policymakers meet in December. He also discussed the negative impact of the recent government shutdown on GDP and the administration's strong legal standing on tariffs. Hassett appears on this week's episode of "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations." This was recorded November 12 at the Economic Club of Washington DC.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A government decision to reject stronger climate targets is pitiful, and will cost households in the long run, scientists, advocates and opposition politicians say. The coalition today released its response to recommendations from the Climate Change Commission to strengthen New Zealand's 2050 targets for methane and carbon emissions. It rejected them both, saying adopting stronger targets would impact GDP - but critics say today's decision will cost the country far more dearly. Climate Change Correspondent Kate Newton reports.

In this explosive episode, economist and hard-asset insider Christian Briggs joins Chuck Meyer to break down President Trump's call to audit America's gold, the quiet moves to revalue U.S. bullion, and how the so-called Genius Act could either rescue the dollar—or ram through a centralized digital dollar that looks a whole lot like the “mark of the beast” system warned about in Revelation.Briggs pulls back the curtain on the Federal Reserve's years-long push to sideline Congress, roll out a Central Bank Digital Currency, and lock every transaction to a programmable, track-and-trace system—while Europe bans large cash payments and races toward its own digital euro. He explains how revaluing Fort Knox gold could slash the debt-to-GDP ratio without new taxes or money-printing, why the BRICS bloc is weaponizing gold and digital currency against the U.S., and how the Genius Act, in the wrong hands, becomes a turnkey surveillance-and-control grid.This is serious, no-spin, pro-America talk: why Trump had to move against the Fed's “fourth branch of government,” how unelected bureaucrats and globalists see your savings as their collateral, and what a cashless, chip-and-scan future would mean for your paycheck, your small business, and your church. If you've wondered how fast the world can flip from paper dollars to digital chains—and where gold, silver, and hard assets fit into the escape plan—this conversation connects every dot.

Help us keep the conversations going in 2026. Donate to Conversations with Tyler today. Dan Wang argues that China is a nation of engineers while America is a nation of lawyers, and this distinction explains everything from subway construction to pandemic response to why Chinese citizens will never have yards with dogs. His prescription: America should become 20% more engineering-minded to fix its broken infrastructure, while China needs to be 50% more lawyerly so the Communist Party can stop strangling individual rights and the creative impulses of its people. But would a more lawyerly China constrain state power, or just create new tools for oppression? And aren't the American suburbs actually sterling achievements where the infrastructure works quite well? Tyler and Dan debate whether American infrastructure is actually broken or just differently optimized, why health care spending should reach 35% of GDP, how lawyerly influences shaped East Asian development differently than China, China's lack of a liberal tradition and why it won't democratize like South Korea or Taiwan did, its economic dysfunction despite its manufacturing superstars, Chinese pragmatism and bureaucratic incentives, a 10-day itinerary for Yunnan,  James C. Scott's work on Zomia, whether Beijing or Shanghai is the better city, Liu Cixin and why volume one of The Three-Body Problem is the best, why contemporary Chinese music and film have declined under Xi, Chinese marriage markets and what it's like to be elderly in China, the Dan Wang production function, why Stendhal is his favorite novelist and Rossini's Comte Ory moves him, what Dan wants to learn next, whether LLMs will make Tyler's hyper-specific podcast questions obsolete, what flavor of drama their conversation turned out to be, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded October 31st, 2025. Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Dan on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here. Timestamps 00:00:00 - American infrastructure and suburban life 00:05:18 - American vs. Chinese infrastructure buildouts... 00:12:25 - And health care investment 00:17:52 - Chinese suburbs 00:20:10 - The existing lawyerly influence in East Asia  00:25:12 - China's lack of a liberal tradition 00:29:35 - Why China's won't democratize 00:33:49 - China's economic disfunction  00:38:44 - China's expansionism  00:41:55 - Chinese pragmatism and bureaucratic incentives 00:46:50 - Chinese cities and regional culture 00:59:44 - James C. Scott, Zomia, and elite culture 01:06:27 - A 10-day Yunnan itinerary 01:11:57 - On Chinese arts, literature, and cultural expression 01:18:23 - The Dan Wang production function 01:30:34 - Tyler's grand strategy, or lack thereof  

Florida is booming. From record GDP growth to massive investment in restaurants, real estate, and business, the state is becoming the top destination for entrepreneurs and billionaires alike. The panel breaks down why Florida is winning while places like New York and California lose ground.

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer, Founder of Analytics TX. Kruti is a longtime statistician and economic consultant who has held leadership roles across analytics, data, and research. She holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Political Economy and helps organizations audit business data, uncover hidden efficiencies, and navigate strategic planning, AI adoption, and more. She regularly shares thought-provoking insights and translates complex analysis into clear, actionable takeaways. We were delighted to hear her perspectives on interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and more ahead of next week's Fed meeting. In our conversation, we explore the “panic narrative” around the economy and why the past five years may feel worse than what the long-run trends suggest. We discuss the health of the U.S. economy, whether we're truly in a unique moment, how rapid interest rate hikes have worsened the debt picture, and why Kruti believes rates should already be moving back toward ~3%. She shares why the expectation that “everything must rise exponentially” is misguided, invoking Joan Robinson's reminder that “in the long run we are all dead, but not all at once.” We cover what data Kruti thinks the Fed should focus on (employment, GDP, true inflation) versus short-term headlines and political noise, the interplay between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and why productivity and technology matter most for long-run growth. Kruti also explains how tariffs effectively raise real interest rates, how consumers adapt, and the flaws she sees in how we measure inflation today. We touch on why she believes fears of mass job loss from AI are overblown, the importance of adaptation, and her concerns about declining quality in higher education and its impact on high-skill labor and future productivity. We address fiscal versus monetary policy, why overreliance on the Fed is risky, and long-run structural issues including savings behavior, financial literacy, and long-dated household debt. We also discuss India's role as a rising economic partner and end with the “magic-wand” reforms Kruti would prioritize including leaner government, updated inflation metrics, and policies that expand the economy's productive frontier rather than over-managing it. It was a thought-provoking discussion. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that broader equity markets rallied on a rebound in Bitcoin, bond yields have been inching higher, crude oil remains under pressure, U.S. natural gas price continues to surge, and copper prices are hitting all-time highs. The 10-year bond yield inched higher this week to ~4.1%, after trading near 4% last week, on rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner for Federal Reserve Chairman. Bond volatility will likely continue into the December 10th FOMC meeting. The DJIA and S&P 500 were both up on the day but remain flattish to slightly lower for the week, with Technology leading and Energy lagging. On the oil market front, WTI price continues to be under pressure (trading just under $59/bbl) due to continuing concern around an early 2026 global oil surplus (~2-4mmbpd). This bearish oil thesis/trade is very-very-very consensus. OPEC+ convened over the weekend and agreed, as expected, to pause oil output hikes through Q126 and to call for third-party verification of OPEC+ members Maximum Sustainable Capacity for 2027 production baselines. He closed by highlighting that cold weather has finally arrived, spiking prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$5/MMBtu (while the 12-month strip holds steady at ~$4.15/MMBtu). He noted the remarkable surge in Lower-48 dry gas production, from 108-109bcfpd a month ago to a weekend peak of ~114bcfpd, now settling in at 112-113bcfpd. Jeff Tillery shared a few themes he's watching heading into the next few quarters. In traditional energy, oilfield services stocks are jumping even as oil prices fall, raising the question of whether the market is signali

This week, Yanis Varoufakis and Wolfgang Munchau take aim at Europe's core illusions. Are Europe's 'values' anything more than a slogan when its leaders fail to defend a French ICC judge sanctioned by the Trump administration? And why is Europe fixated on rapidly increasing defence spending to 3.5% of GDP - is this target a genuine strategy to counter Russia and achieve independence, or is it a doomed exercise that will only funnel money inefficiently and increase Europe's reliance on American arms suppliers?The Econoclasts is the podcast from UnHerd in which Yanis Varoufakis and Wolfgang Munchau each week pick pillars of the economic orthodoxy – so-called ‘settled facts' – and shatter them. Why? Because, while they don't always agree politically, they're united in one conviction: the consensus is rotten and the establishment's model is failing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Of Israel's many achievements since October 7, none perhaps was as unforeseen as the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange reaching an all-time high two years since the start of the war. While this reflected the resilience and dynamism of the start-up nation, there are troubling signs ahead for Israel's economy: the high cost of war; stagnant economic sectors; bureaucratic malaise; high population growth; and more. Can Israel make the adjustments and double its GDP over ten years? Can Jews in the Diaspora help it get there?Israeli venture capitalist Michael Eisenberg joined SAPIR Editor-in-Chief Bret Stephens for a conversation about what it will take for Israel to become a trillion-dollar economy.Watch this SAPIR Conversation on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-S4BQEQynhM Read Michael Eisenberg's essay: https://sapirjournal.org/money/2025/building-israels-trillion-dollar-economy/ Music from #Uppbeat (free for Creators!): https://uppbeat.io/t/theo-gerard/monsieur-groove

หอการค้าไทย คาดน้ำท่วมภาคใต้ เสียหายหนัก 40,000 ล้านบาท ในเดือนเดียว ชี้ภาคท่องเที่ยวและบริการหนักสุด ฉุด GDP ไทยเหลือ 1.9% รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไร วิกฤตน้ำท่วมใต้ บริษัทประกันภัยพร้อมจ่ายค่าสินไหมแค่ไหน พูดคุยกับ อดิศร พิพัฒน์วรพงศ์ รองเลขาธิการด้านกฎหมายและตรวจสอบ สำนักงานคณะกรรมการกำกับและส่งเสริมการประกอบธุรกิจประกันภัย (คปภ.)

2025年12月3日下午：澳大利亚统计局最新数据显示，9月季度国内生产总值（GDP）环比增长0.4%，同比增长2.1%，这是两年来最强年增长率（收听播客，了解详情）。

SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Stephen Halmarick from Economists Unchained and Alice Shen from VanEck to find out what today's official GDP data really says about the economy, implications for interest rates, and how the sharemarket reacted.

Asian stocks traded within tight ranges early Wednesday, mirroring similar moves on Wall Street amid a lack of fresh catalysts, while a rebound in cryptocurrencies lost steam. In South Korea, Today's outperformer is the South Korean equity market. Today, the Bank of Korea reported a revised GDP growth of 1.3% quarter on quarter. It's the fastest pace of growth in nearly four years. We heard from Frederic Neumann, HSBC Chief Asia Economist and Co-Head of Global Research. He spoke to Bloomberg's Paul Allen and Avril Hong on the Asia Trade. In the States - There was a cautious rebound in the US equity market. A portion of today's risk-taking was tied to a rebound in crypto currencies. We spoke to Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

PREVIEW — Elizabeth Peek — The Economic Conundrum: Strong Spending, Low Confidence. Peek analyzes the apparent economic contradiction wherein strong GDP growth and robust retail spending metrics coexist with persistently low consumer confidence and widespread economic pessimism. Peek attributes this paradoxical dynamic to acute affordability crises affecting substantial population cohorts and a deteriorating labor market characterized by declining hiring, wage stagnation relative to inflation, and employment insecurity. Peek characterizes this bifurcated economic experience as a "K-shaped economy," wherein stock market gains and asset appreciation benefit relatively privileged populations, while widespread financial anxiety, housing unaffordability, and discretionary spending constraints generate diffuse economic distress among middle and working-class populations. 1890 HARLEM HEIGHTS

In this episode, we're joined again by Jim Paulsen to break down the key themes shaping markets and the economy heading into 2026. Jim explains why policymakers may be fighting the wrong battle, why real sustainable growth has quietly collapsed over the past 20 years, and how shifts in policy, demographics, productivity, inflation, and investor psychology all tie together. We also walk through Jim's latest charts from Paulsen Perspectives and explore what they mean for stocks, sectors, interest rates, the dollar, and leadership in the year ahead.Topics covered in this episode:• The state of inflation and why CPI and PPI may be sending a very different message• The 20-year collapse in real sustainable GDP growth• Why job creation, labor force growth, and productivity have all structurally weakened• The rise in unemployment duration and what it signals about lost “animal spirits”• How demographics, immigration policy, and cultural shifts are shaping growth• Productivity puzzles: innovation vs. distraction in a tech-driven economy• Why the real economic risk may be deflation, not inflation• How monetary policy, the yield curve, the dollar, and fiscal policy have remained contractionary• Tariffs as a hidden tax and their real impact on inflation• How an easing cycle could reshape market leadership in 2026• Jim's Total Policy Stimulus Index and what it reveals about small caps, cyclicals, value, and foreign stocks• The difference between today's tech cycle and the dot-com bubble• What a broadening market might look like if policy finally turns supportive• How international equities could respond to a weaker dollar• Why tech may underperform without collapsing• Jim's expectations for S&P 500 returns in 2026 and the potential for a more balanced leadership environmentTimestamps:00:00 Market setup and inflation overview02:00 Reviewing recent corrections and sector broadening04:00 Bond yields, easing expectations, and fear-based asset leadership06:00 Tech's relative performance beginning to fade07:00 GDP growth collapse over two decades09:00 Structural slowdown in job creation10:30 Labor force growth and aging demographics12:00 The doubling of unemployment duration14:00 Population trends, immigration, and slowing productivity17:00 The rise of de-risking and falling monetary velocity19:00 Trade deficits, globalization, and policy contraction22:00 Why inflation risk may be overstated26:00 CPI/PPI data versus the inflation narrative29:00 Money supply, real rates, and the longest yield curve inversion31:00 The strong dollar as a contractionary force34:00 International stock performance and currency impact35:00 Tax burden relative to slower growth37:00 Tariffs as taxes and their real economic effect39:00 What would it take to restore growth and optimism?42:00 The Total Policy Stimulus Index explained47:00 Policy's impact on equal-weight, small caps, cyclicals, and value52:00 How foreign stocks respond to policy and the dollar54:00 Tech valuations today vs. the dot-com era55:00 Fed response differences between now and 200057:00 Why today's tech cycle is structurally different59:00 What 2026 might look like for the S&P 50001:01:00 Why price targets are inherently unreliable01:01:45 Closing thoughts and sign-off

In this episode, I speak with Xin from Sign Global, a company building sovereign blockchain infrastructure for governments — from national stablecoins and CBDCs to digital identity and real-world asset systems.Xin explains why crypto struggles to reach real adoption: we build great tech but rarely solve problems for banks, regulators, or everyday users. Sign Global works directly with governments to modernize payments, identity, and asset rails — aiming to cut international settlement from 1–3 days to 2 minutes and unlock massive economic velocity.We discuss global stablecoin trends, why USD stablecoins won't dominate long term, how sovereign digital ID actually works, and why countries like Kazakhstan and the UAE are moving fastest.A rare, practical look at the future of national-scale blockchain systems.(Nothing here is financial advice.)Key timestamps[00:00:00] Cold Open: Xin on why crypto people don't talk to the real world [00:01:00] Intro: Sam introduces Xin and Sign Global's mission for sovereign infrastructure [00:03:00] Origin Story: Mining, hardware, VC and founding Sign in 2021 [00:05:00] From App to Nations: Pivoting from Web3 contract signing to CBDCs and stablecoins[00:08:00] Crypto vs Real World: Why good tech without real users doesn't create value [00:11:00] Digital ID: Sovereign credentials vs centralized government databases that keep getting hacked [00:15:00] Progressive States: Kazakhstan, UAE and how ambitious governments think about crypto [00:19:00] Future of Stablecoins: Why Xin believes stablecoins win but USD stablecoins won't dominate everyday money [00:24:00] Tokenizing Nations: Governments as gatekeepers for fiat, oil, land and RWA on-chain [00:30:00] Business Model: From government infra contracts to global payment rails [00:33:00] Bandwidth of Money: 1–3 day SWIFT vs 2-minute settlement and the impact on global GDP [00:34:00] Roadmap & Ask: 25+ countries, global payment network and who Xin wants to work withConnecthttps://sign.global/https://www.linkedin.com/company/ethsign/https://www.linkedin.com/in/xin-yan-658545172/https://x.com/ethsignhttps://x.com/realyanxinDisclaimerNothing mentioned in this podcast is investment advice and please do your own research. Finally, it would mean a lot if you can leave a review of this podcast on Apple Podcasts or Spotify and share this podcast with a friend.Be a guest on the podcast or contact us - https://www.web3pod.xyz/

With news headlines shouting doom and gloom in every direction, is the National Retail Federation's record-breaking $1 trillion holiday forecast wishful thinking? Or something more nuanced? “The consumer is sentimentally weak, but fundamentally sound,” explained Mark Mathews, chief economist and executive director of research for the NRF in a special podcast episode for Retail Rx with Ian Fredericks, chief executive officer of Hilco Global Capital Solutions and executive director of Hilco's Consumer and Retail platform. That's important because the consumer is powering our economy more than ever before. Today, 68 percent of GDP is driven by consumer spending—the largest percentage in the past 15 years. “While lower-income households are definitely struggling, what we have seen over the course of the year is that all households have protected their spending on loved ones,” said Mathews. “Mother's Day, Father's Day, Valentine's Day, Back to School, Halloween… we've had at or near record levels of spend across all of those events.” Essentially, it's the nature of spending that has changed, and to safeguard that spending, many have pulled back in other areas like recreation or travel. Consumers have also shifted to more promotional spending that squeeze margins. “The retailer is constrained because prices are rising, so while retailers will offer sales that are important to consumers, we may not see the breadth of sales that we've seen before,” Mathews said.   The NRF has been analyzing data and advising retailers for over a century. The November/December season represents roughly 20 percent of the year's retail sales for many retailers. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stephen Grootes speaks to Goolam Ballim, Chief Economist at Standard Bank, about South Africa’s economy growing by 0.5% in the third quarter, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth and what the latest GDP data reveals about sector performance and investment trends. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Worldwide Markets – Episode 659 Show Notes "It's Been a Year… But Markets Loved It"

The Australian share market has closed higher ahead of tomorrow's key GDP data, where a strong economic growth figure could further complicate the Reserve Bank's interest rate decision next week. Plus, silver's rally continues with the precious metal breaking above US$58 an ounce overnight. For more, Stephanie Youssef spoke with MPC Markets CEO Mark Gardner.

Első részében a legfrissebb magyar GDP-adatot vesszük górcső alá Madár István, a Portfolio vezető elemzőjének segítségével, akit a stagnálás okairól és a kilábalás lehetséges forgatókönyveiről kérdeztünk. Az adás második felében az ukrán kormányt megrázó korrupciós botrányt tűztük napirendre, ahol a szálak Volodimir Zelenszkij elnök időközben lemondott kabinetfőnökéhez vezetnek. A Portfolio Global vezető elemzőjével, Huszák Dániellel ástunk a mélyére, hogy az ügy milyen következményekkel járhat a háború menete, lezárásának folyamata, illetve az ukrán belpolitikai stabilitás vonatkozásában. Főbb részek: Intro − (00:00) Magyar GDP: szárnyalni nem szárnyal − (01:31) Ukrajna: tájkép korrupciós botrány után − (15:42) See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is bringing the country out of the Biden/Obama recession. The [CB] is trapped because they never expected Trump’s parallel economic system to be building at lightning speed. Trump is putting everything into place to transition the people from the [CB] which means we will not need the income tax. [DS] has now used one of it’s soldiers to begin the color revolution. The [DS] wants a civil war in the end and they are pushing it. Trump knows the playbook and this is why he took the path of waking the people up and building the counterinsurgency. The people must see who the true enemy is, only when the people see the enemy can we fight the enemy. Trump put all this into place for this moment. Economy https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994238315730473327?s=20   Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest since March. This also marks the highest monthly number for any October in 22 years. All while employees notified of mass layoffs via WARN notices tracked by Revelio rose +11,912 last month to 43,626, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years. US layoffs are accelerating. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994222461252980749?s=20  percentage has persisted above 90% for 12 months. Such an elevated reading has been seen only a few times over the last 35 years. Over the last 2 years, global central banks have cuts rates 316 times, the highest reading in at least 25 years. To put this into perspective, there were 313 cumulative cuts in 2008-2010 in response to the financial crisis. Global monetary policy is easing. Amazing How Central Bank Money-Printing Reversed around the World after the Inflation Shock  Balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and central banks of China, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and India as % of GDP.  The major central banks around the world have been unwinding their balance sheets for the past few years, even the Bank of Japan, which got a late start in 2024. Their balance sheets had swollen to grotesque proportions during the global QE frenzy that started in 2008, and QE-mania during and after the pandemic. But that has been getting unwound. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an umbrella organization owned by its member central banks, released its latest quarterly data on central bank balance sheets today. We'll look at the decline of the balance sheets of nine major central banks: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Bank of England, Central Bank of India, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank. In normal times, central-bank balance sheets, including the Fed's balance sheet, grew with the economy, as measured by GDP; and the ratio of total assets as a percentage of GDP back then was low and roughly stable over the years. Years of QE then caused the ratios to explode. And years of QT have now caused the ratios to shrink dramatically.   They're all seeing the same thing: A continued threat of inflation and massive distortions and risks in asset prices, including dangerous housing bubbles that are now deflating in some markets. So they've been removing some of the fuel, to walk back from those risks. Source: wolfstreet.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1994194115467071830?s=20 Yes, President Trump did make that statement in a recent address (likely his Thanksgiving message to U.S. troops on November 27, 2025). Based on the video clip in the X post you linked, here’s the relevant excerpt from his remarks:“The next couple of years, I think we’ll substantially be cutting and maybe cutting out completely, but we’ll be cutting income tax—could be almost completely cutting it—because the money we’re taking in is going to be so large.”This aligns closely with the claim in the WatcherGuru post. Multiple news outlets have reported on the comments, confirming they are authentic and recent. For context, Trump has floated similar ideas about offsetting or replacing income taxes with tariff revenue multiple times during his campaign and presidency, though experts have questioned the feasibility due to the massive revenue gap (tariffs currently generate far less than income taxes). DOGE Geopolitical Globalist Germany's Firewall Against the AfD Collapses as Half the Country Now Open to Voting for Them For the first time since the party entered parliament about nine years ago, the anti-democratic cordon sanitaire around the right-wing, anti-globalist Alternative für Deutschland appears to have cracked wide open. According to the latest INSA/Bild poll, fewer than half of all German voters (just 49%) now say they would “never” vote AfD—down from a staggering 75% only a few years ago, This is nothing short of a historic breakthrough. Despite years of state-funded smear campaigns, constant domestic intelligence surveillance (Verfassungsschutz), court cases, job dismissals, bank account closures, repeated violence against party members by left-globalist extremists, and even serious discussions about banning the party outright, ordinary Germans are finally seeing through the propaganda and recognizing the AfD as the only serious opposition to a failing system. Source: thegatewaypundit.com    all the Liars and Pretenders of the Radical Left Media are going out of business! At the conclusion of the G20, South Africa refused to hand off the G20 Presidency to a Senior Representative from our U.S. Embassy, who attended the Closing Ceremony. Therefore, at my direction, South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20, which will be hosted in the Great City of Miami, Florida next year. South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not a country worthy of Membership anywhere, and we are going to stop all payments and subsidies to them, effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! War/Peace Zelensky sent aide to US talks to ‘protect’ him from corruption probe – media Zelensky appointed his chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, to head Kiev’s negotiating delegation in Geneva last weekend after learning that anti-corruption investigators were preparing a suspicion notice against the aide,The report comes amid fallout from a massive $100 million graft scheme involving the Ukrainian leader’s inner circle, including long-time associate Timur Mindich, who has been charged with running a kickback scheme in the energy sector and fled before the authorities could detain him.Surveillance of the Mindich case by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) reportedly captured conversations involving Zelensky and Yermak, potentially implicating both. Source: sott.net https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1994307774860189739?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1994307774860189739%7Ctwgr%5Ee8d979a9c10fbfc326b32333d206fa988e9c3418%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Fnew-ukraines-anti-corruption-bureau-raids-home-andriy%2F   Zelensky's chief of staff. The latest raid comes days after a $100M bribery scandal rocked Ukraine's energy sector – but no official word yet if this is linked. Neither agency has commented on the raid yet.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NATO states considering ‘cyber offensive' against Russia – Politico NATO's European members are reportedly considering joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, Politico reported on Thursday, citing two senior EU government officials and three diplomats. Western governments are assessing cyber and other options in response to alleged “hybrid attacks” by Moscow, according to the publication. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told Politico that NATO must “be more proactive on the cyber offensive” and better coordinate their intelligence services. “And it's not talking that sends a signal – it's doing,” she said. In late 2024, NATO unveiled plans to establish a new integrated cyber defense center at its headquarters in Belgium, which is expected to go online by 2028. Stefano Piermarocchi, the head of cyber risk management within NATO's chief information office, told Breaking Defense that the new hub would enhance Source: rt.com Russian President Vladimir Putin Gives Remarkably Detailed Explanation of Current Peace Negotiation Status – Either Ukraine Concedes Diplomatically, or We Will Win Militarily Source: theconservativetreehouse.com Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1993883057414353293?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1994206037998538849?s=20 https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/1994194638421340290?s=20 https://twitter.com/VickieforNYC/status/1993899026651951335?s=20   foreign warzone. Yet almost every major lefty account is parroting this narrative. It’s bizarre. Like “of COURSE people are going to try and murder the National Guard, what did you expect to happen in Washington” Is this the narrative here? That Washington is Fallujah? Or is it that the left has declared a de facto state of war, and casualties are now just to be expected? It’s extremely bad either way. https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/1994054785163522357?s=20  that the President said it's times to bring in more law enforcement to make sure that a city that had the 4th highest homicide rate in the country, that that violence was quelled. I'm not even gonna go there!” Liberals have been spending the last 12 hours trying to place the blame on Trump for bringing the NG to the city. Truly unbelievable how ungrateful these people are https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1993876798866653577?s=20 https://twitter.com/thevivafrei/status/1994116243154973175?s=20   intentions, everything takes on a whole new meaning. https://twitter.com/ZannSuz/status/1993859778414580217?s=20 https://twitter.com/JLRINVESTIGATES/status/1994214556671889810?s=20 https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1994118842239610989?s=20   dive here. As always, patience as I pull together the thread: https://twitter.com/TPASarah/status/1994015487135514931 Sarah Adams@TPASarah Lakanwal, from Khost Province, Afghanistan, was a member of two CIA-supported units that operated under the National Directorate of Security (NDS) of the former Afghan Republic. Although these units belonged to the NDS on paper, their support and direction came directly from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). He served in Unit 01, a special military-intelligence unit responsible for the central zone provinces (Kabul, Parwan, Wardak, and Logar). His agency training in 2007 took place at CIA's Eagle Base near the Deh Sabz district of Kabul province, a few miles from Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA). Eagle Camp, originally built on an old brick factory site, became one of the CIA's most important counterterrorism training centers in the early 2000s. It trained the CIA-backed NDS units including NDS-01, NDS-02, NDS-03, NDS-04, NDS-KPF, and NDS-KSF, and also housed an ammunition depot and multiple facilities for sensitive operations. When U.S. forces left Afghanistan in 2021, Eagle Camp was among the final sites to be evacuated and demolished. It was later handed over to the Haqqani Network's suicide bomber brigade, the Badri 313. Badri 313 moved the suicide bombers through the gate areas of HKIA for the Abbey Gate attack that killed 13 of our servicemembers and approximately 170 Afghans on August 26, 2021. After completing training at Eagle Base, Lakanwal was transferred to the team supporting CIA's Kandahar Base. The site had a long militant history: it housed Mullah Mohammad Omar from 1994–2001, Osama bin Laden from 1998–2001, and later Camp Gecko from 2002–2021, which was used by the CIA and NDS-03. It served as the headquarters of the Kandahar Strike Force, which led CIA-backed counterterrorism operations in Kandahar, Uruzgan, and Zabul provinces against the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS. Lakanwal took part in counterterrorism missions alongside U.S. forces in Kandahar. After the attack yesterday on our National Guardsmen in Washington, DC, ISIS channels were the first to praise the incident largely because Lakanwal's half-brother (the son of his father's second wife, pictured left) had been a recruiter for the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP). His brother, Muawiyah Khurasani aka Hayatullah (pictured below), previously worked with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Orakzai Agency, Pakistan, before formally joining ISKP. He was killed in a targeted operation in July 2022 in Achin district, Nangarhar province. Some ISIS members claimed he was killed by Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD), though that remains unconfirmed. After the fall of Kabul in 2021, Lakanwal's unit the Kandahar Protection Force and the Khost Protection Force (KPF) became prime targets for both the Haqqani Network and ISKP, which sought either to blackmail or recruit former KPF members. Recruitment involved persuading them to join voluntarily; blackmail involved coercing them through threats to their families (many were left behind), exposure of past work with the U.S., or financial pressure. Both groups targeted these units specifically because of their close relationships on U.S. soil, particularly with former CIA officers. In addition, both groups, along with al-Qaeda, saw value in impersonating these units. A couple thousand fake documents and ID cards were produced so terrorists could claim affiliation with KPF/01/02 and other special units. This allowed some individuals to fraudulently move through the U.S. evacuation process by exploiting unsuspecting volunteers and taking advantage of weak vetting procedures. We have confirmed that Lakanwal's ID (pictured right) and employment were legitimate, but a full review is recommended, as terrorists have explicitly claimed using this route as a pipeline into the U.S. We cannot keep waiting for Americans to be killed again and again before we act against the Islamist terrorists who have arrived on our soil since 2021. This can no longer fall on the shoulders of a small handful of people sounding the alarm. Every American needs to be engaged: protecting their families, their communities, and our homeland. Please prepare today! https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1993925420329390316?s=20  action force of the AFN who fought directly alongside U.S. Special Forces against the Taliban. In addition, Fox News is reporting that Lakanwal worked with various other government entities from the United States in Afghanistan, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), specifically as part of the CIA-backed Kandahar Strike Force (KSF), known in most intelligence circles as NDS-03, which operated outside of U.S. and Afghan military chain-of-commands directly under the CIA, carrying out covert, clandestine, counterterrorism operations, including night raids and assassinations against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1993878815349854361?s=20 CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that to Fox. “In the wake of the disastrous Biden withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration justified bringing the alleged shooter to the United States in September 2021 due to his prior work with the U.S. government, including CIA, as a member of a partner force in Kandahar, which ended shortly following the chaotic evacuation,” CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Fox News Digital. “The individual—and so many others—should have never been allowed to come here,” Ratcliffe continued. “Our citizens and service members deserve far better than to endure the ongoing fallout from the Biden administration's catastrophic failures.” Ratcliffe added: “God bless our brave troops.” https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1994201842750837067?s=20 https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1993882348069552531?s=20 https://twitter.com/CannConActual/status/1993693224196604379?s=20  at a colour revolution. @ColonelTowner and@xAlphaWarriorx have done a good job documenting several. We have been overwhelmingly resistant to these efforts on our homeland through the use of NGOs funding widespread protests and subsequent riots. And as President Trump cut the head off their private sector funding apparatuses (USAID, NED, etc), they are becoming desperate. So they politicized the military, subverted the Constitutional authority of the Commander in Chief, and injected themselves in a chain of command they are NOT a part of. The desperate attempt to execute their plan. This is life or death for the Deep State. https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1993886979738460646?s=20 There are three phases to a Color Revolution. It’s important to understand this so you can see how the actions of the Sedition 6 fit into this pattern. PHASE ONE: -Form underground opposition networks. -Create strong slogans and powerful information operations as recruitment tools. -Upon a certain well-coordinated signal, well-funded, well-organized mass protests “spontaneously” appear. -The armed wing of the movement conducts carefully coordinated, precision attacks on certain government infrastructure. PHASE TWO:  -Discredit military, security, and law enforcement forces through information operations, coordination with friendly media (Jimmy Kimmel? Talkin’ to you, Komrade Kelly), strikes, civil disobedience, rioting, and sabotage. yOU ARE HER -Occupy civic facilities and refuse to leave until your demands are met. -Strengthen and grow a highly organized logistics support network. -Issue ultimatums to the government, threatening violent uprisings if demands are unmet. The goal is to either have the government acquiesce or engage in violent repression, in each case thereby delegitimizing itself. PHASE THREE:  -Overthrow the government in a “non-violent” manner that is actually quite violent. -Open attacks on authorities, seizure of government buildings, destruction of government symbols. -Coordinate media messaging. If the government attacks, media will accuse the government of attacking “peaceful protestors.” If the government makes concessions, it will appear impotent because protestors will not compromise. -Widespread delegitimization of the government is effective in the minds of the populace; the government either willingly cedes power or is violently removed. -The once underground opposition forces’ leadership now seizes control of the government.   prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels. They and their children are supported through massive payments from Patriotic American Citizens who, because of their beautiful hearts, do not want to openly complain or cause trouble in any way, shape, or form. They put up with what has happened to our Country, but it's eating them alive to do so! A migrant earning $30,000 with a green card will get roughly $50,000 in yearly benefits for their family. The real migrant population is much higher. This refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits, etc.). As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for “prey” as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping against hope that they will be left alone. The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both, while the worst “Congressman/woman” in our Country, Ilhan Omar, always wrapped in her swaddling hijab, and who probably came into the U.S.A. illegally in that you are not allowed to marry your brother, does nothing but hatefully complain about our Country, its Constitution, and how “badly” she is treated, when her place of origin is a decadent, backward, and crime ridden nation, which is essentially not even a country for lack of Government, Military, Police, schools, etc…    denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization. These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal Autopen approval process. Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for — You won't be here for long! Trump Orders Green Card Review in the Wake of Shooting by Afghan on Overstay President Trump's Plan (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

UK Tax Hikes Reach All-Time High, Fueling Entrepreneur Exodus and Political Turmoil for Labor Party — Simon Constable — Constable reports that the UK Labour budget under Rachel Reeves will raise the aggregate tax burden to an all-time high of 38% of GDP. This approach is viewed as fundamentally anti-business, with over two-thirds of entrepreneurs reporting that the government lacks genuine support for wealth creation and private enterprise. Constable predicts this environment will trigger an exodus of new wealth creators and capital. Constable suggests the resulting political turmoil positions Nigel Farage as a credible contender for future UKleadership.

SHOW 11-26-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1959 THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT STEE WITKOFF FIRST HOUR 9-915 Trump Envoy's Leaked Negotiations Undermine Ukraine Sovereignty; NATO Grapples with Political Will and Manpower Gaps — Colonel Jeff McCausland — Colonel McCausland analyzes leaked details revealing Trumpenvoy Steve Witkoff coaching Russian negotiators and proposing Ukrainian territorial concessions, violating fundamental negotiation principles. McCausland believes the war's continuation is the most probable outcome given these dynamics. McCausland assesses NATO readiness, concluding that while economic components exist, political will remains crucial. He condemns the DoD's attempt to prosecute Senator Kelly for citing Uniform Code of Military Justice (UCMJ) principles. C915-930 CONTINUED Trump Envoy's Leaked Negotiations Undermine Ukraine Sovereignty; NATO Grapples with Political Will and Manpower Gaps — Colonel Jeff McCausland — 930-945 Hyper-Individualism Since 1968 Has Fractured Civic Communion, Demands Rebuilding of Formative Institutions— Richard Reinsch — Reinsch argues that American politics is fundamentally undermined by a culture of hyper-individualism—a concept emerging around 1968—that divorces citizens from duty, sacrifice, and relational belonging. This cultural fragmentation has destroyed "civic communion" and social cohesion. To reclaim the republic, Reinschcontends citizens must actively resist the breakdown of formative institutions and work to restore loyalty and commitment through religion, education, family, and military service. 945-1000 SECOND HOUR 10-1015 China's Property Crisis Deepens as State-Owned Giant Vanke Plunges; Export Model Creates International Friction — Fraser Howie — Howie documents the deepening property market crisis, evidenced by the financial collapse of state-owned developer Vanke. The central government avoids massive bailout commitments, converting acute sectoral problems into chronic structural drags that leave municipal and regional banks dangerously exposed. Howie notes that the government's current strategy—relying on massive export volumes—is generating significant international friction and pushback, as other nations fear being "swamped by cheap Chinese imports" and demand market access reciprocity. 1015-1030 PLA Anti-Submarine Warfare Grows, But Taiwan Conflict Will Immediately Escalate to Total War for Ryukyu Islands — Rick Fisher — Fisher notes that the PLA Navy has invested heavily in advanced anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities. However, Japan maintains a meaningful deterrent margin through its new lithium-battery powered submarines. Fisher warns that China cannot impose an effective blockade of Taiwan without invading and occupying the Sakushima Islands (part of the Ryukyu chain), guaranteeing that any conflict over Taiwan's status will immediately transition into total, wider warfare involving Japan and the United States. C 1030-104C Canada's PM Carney Pursues China Trade Ties Despite Warnings of Beijing's Malign Influence and Elite Capture— Charles Burton — Burton analyzes Prime Minister Carney's efforts to strengthen trade relations with China, potentially to offset escalating tensions with the U.S. Burton suggests Carney assumes China will reward policy concessions by opening its markets, though historical precedent demonstrates China routinely offers empty promises. Burton expresses concern that the government is delaying implementation of a Foreign Influence Registry to appease Beijing, enabling continued espionage, infiltration operations, and the "elite capture" of Canadian policy makers. 1045-1100 China's AI War Planning Focuses on Deception, Raises Global Thermonuclear Risk — General Blaine Holt — General Holt examines China's PLA war planning, which prioritizes using artificial intelligence for grand deception operations. He argues that fifth-generation warfare, leveraging deepfakes and large language models, is potentially more destructive than nuclear weapons. Holt warns that autonomous AI systems adjudicating warfare decisions—analogous to WarGames—represents a probable future scenario. He assesses NATO as "slow and archaic," underscoring the urgent need for advanced indicators, warning systems, and diplomatic frameworks to manage emerging technological threats. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Author Charles Burton Recounts MSS Interrogation; Details Canada's Decade of Failing to Counter Chinese Malign Activity — Charles Burton — Burton recounts his 2018 interrogation by China's Ministry of State Securityregarding his academic research on Chinese political democratization. He asserts that successive Canadian governments have consistently failed to challenge Beijing's malign operations. Burton cites slow responses to Huawei 5G concerns, government secrecy surrounding the Wuhan-Winnipeg laboratory connections during COVID-19, and current resistance to subsidized BYD electric vehicles, which function as surveillance and data collection tools. 1115-1130 1130-1145 1145-1200 FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 UK Tax Hikes Reach All-Time High, Fueling Entrepreneur Exodus and Political Turmoil for Labor Party — Simon Constable — Constable reports that the UK Labour budget under Rachel Reeves will raise the aggregate tax burden to an all-time high of 38% of GDP. This approach is viewed as fundamentally anti-business, with over two-thirds of entrepreneurs reporting that the government lacks genuine support for wealth creation and private enterprise. Constable predicts this environment will trigger an exodus of new wealth creators and capital. Constable suggests the resulting political turmoil positions Nigel Farage as a credible contender for future UKleadership. 1215-1230 Sanctions Hit Russian Economy Hard as Middlemen Charge Massive Premiums for Imports and Demand Huge Energy Discounts — Michael Bernstam — Bernstam details how countries including China and Turkey exploit Russia's economic isolation through sanctions. China demands oil discounts of up to $19 per barrel while simultaneously charging an 87% premium for manufactured goods exported to Russia. This arbitrage mechanism has contributed to a severe recession in Russia's civilian economy (5.4% contraction). Russia has increasingly relied on gold reserves to cover government budget deficits and sustain essential spending. 1230-1245 1245-100 AM SpaceX Explosion, Chinese Stranding Highlight Private Space Successes and Major Space Failures — Bob Zimmerman — Zimmerman reports on a SpaceX Super Heavy prototype explosion during testing, emphasizing that engineering failures are vital mechanisms for program advancement and refinement. In stark contrast, the Chinese space program's lack of transparency regarding capsule damage resulted in taikonauts being stranded without functional lifeboat capability—a historic first in crewed spaceflight. Boeing's Starliner manned capsule program was downgraded to cargo-only operations due to persistent technical deficiencies, resulting in substantially reduced contract valuation.