Market value of goods and services produced within a country
POPULARITY
Categories
220 episodes with gdp
102 episodes with gdp
190 episodes with gdp
67 episodes with gdp
250 episodes with gdp
65 episodes with gdp
117 episodes with gdp
53 episodes with gdp
146 episodes with gdp
48 episodes with gdp
182 episodes with gdp
98 episodes with gdp
68 episodes with gdp
70 episodes with gdp
137 episodes with gdp
90 episodes with gdp
128 episodes with gdp
75 episodes with gdp
69 episodes with gdp
146 episodes with gdp
69 episodes with gdp
140 episodes with gdp
49 episodes with gdp
47 episodes with gdp
49 episodes with gdp
40 episodes with gdp
40 episodes with gdp
58 episodes with gdp
48 episodes with gdp
103 episodes with gdp
43 episodes with gdp
35 episodes with gdp
48 episodes with gdp
52 episodes with gdp
27 episodes with gdp
63 episodes with gdp
70 episodes with gdp
39 episodes with gdp
28 episodes with gdp
72 episodes with gdp
54 episodes with gdp
32 episodes with gdp
47 episodes with gdp
26 episodes with gdp
46 episodes with gdp
49 episodes with gdp
25 episodes with gdp
20 episodes with gdp
30 episodes with gdp
37 episodes with gdp
33 episodes with gdp
30 episodes with gdp
47 episodes with gdp
101 episodes with gdp
Leaders today face a critical AI dilemma: move too quickly and risk producing low-quality "work slop," or move too slowly and sacrifice a crucial competitive edge in innovation. But one global real estate powerhouse, managing 3% of the world's GDP, has successfully navigated this tightrope for nearly three years, offering a proven model for enterprise AI adoption. In this episode, Prologis CHRO Nathaalie Carey reveals how the company solved this dilemma with an "innovation first" strategy, a journey that began by deploying an enterprise version of ChatGPT well ahead of the curve. Prologis achieved this by deliberately empowering its workforce, intentionally prioritizing widespread innovation over premature governance. By providing direct access to tools, supported by strategic training, the company drove 95% adoption rate and sparked over 1,000 crowdsourced custom GPTs. Carey explains how the company built trust by reframing AI as a "bargain" to trade mundane tasks for high-value strategic work. She also details the company's evolution from using AI for basic information gathering to utilizing it for complex decision-making and upcoming "agentic AI" workflows for processes like underwriting and background checks. Carey argues that as AI becomes a "great equalizer" for technical skills, the true competitive advantage lies in balancing technological speed with authentic human connection and the power of human imagination. ---------- Start your day with the world's top leaders by joining thousands of others at Great Leadership on Substack. Just enter your email: https://greatleadership.substack.com/ Stop patching problems and start designing an intentional workplace. The 8 Laws of Employee Experience gives you the how. Order your copy: 8EXlaws.com
【主なニュース】▽広島 東広島で殺人事件か 男性死亡 住宅から火も 関連を捜査 ▽大阪 道頓堀 少年3人死傷事件 男女7～8人いる中で言い争いか ▽去年10～12月のGDP 年率換算+0.2％ 2期ぶりにプラス など
Passport Bros claim fleeing abroad solves their dating woes. Nick Pell explains why they're in for a rude awakening on this Skeptical Sunday.Welcome to Skeptical Sunday, a special edition of The Jordan Harbinger Show where Jordan and a guest break down a topic that you may have never thought about, open things up, and debunk common misconceptions. This time around, we're joined by writer and researcher Nick Pell!Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/1285On This Week's Skeptical Sunday:The "Passport Bro" phenomenon is fueled by two overlapping myths — that all Western women are "too feminist" to date, and that women abroad are uniformly docile and grateful for Western husbands — but both stereotypes collapse under scrutiny and bear little relationship to reality.The economic leverage passport bros think they'll have abroad is largely outdated fantasy. The global middle class has risen dramatically, emerging economies now account for two-thirds of global GDP growth, and women in many "destination" countries are often more educated than the men showing up.Women abroad aren't passive targets — they have agency, savvy, and often family networks deeply involved in vetting potential partners. In more "traditional" societies, passport bros face scrutiny from entire extended families, not just individual women making solo decisions.The phenomenon attracts real danger: romance scams have exploded 238 times over, Colombia has State Department warnings due to a 200% increase in dating-app-related robberies, and men get drugged, catfished, and sextorted with alarming regularity.Cross-cultural relationships absolutely can work — the key is approaching them with realistic expectations rather than red-pill fantasies. Learning about actual cultural values, staying alert to scams, and treating potential partners as individuals rather than stereotypes is the foundation for genuine connection abroad.Connect with Jordan on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube. If you have something you'd like us to tackle here on Skeptical Sunday, drop Jordan a line at jordan@jordanharbinger.com and let him know!And if you're still game to support us, please leave a review here — even one sentence helps! Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course!Subscribe to our once-a-week Wee Bit Wiser newsletter today and start filling your Wednesdays with wisdom!Do you even Reddit, bro? Join us at r/JordanHarbinger!This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: The Perfect Jean: 15% off first order: theperfectjean.nyc, code JORDAN15ZipRecruiter: Learn more at ziprecruiter.com/jordanFitbod: 25% off: fitbod.me/jordanAudible: Visit audible.com/jhs or text JHS to 500-500Homes.com: Find your home: homes.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
The central development addressed is the disconnect between rising overall IT spending and the declining channel share for MSPs and IT partners. Dave Sobel, in discussion with an industry analyst, highlights a reduction in indirect channel participation—from over 75% to a projected 66.7% in 2026—primarily due to the concentration of AI infrastructure investment among the largest technology firms. These hyperscalers and their associated CapEx do not translate into traditional channel opportunities, restricting partner involvement to areas outside large-scale AI data center buildouts.Supporting data point to a technological industry projected to reach $6.07 trillion in customer spend, growing at 10.2%, compared to significantly lower world GDP growth. However, almost none of the rapid AI-related CapEx from companies like Nvidia and Google flows down to channel partners, who instead rely on client-facing managed services, advisory, and security service work. The increasing complexity of customer demand—such as the shift toward managed security (15% growth) and AI services (35.3% compounded growth)—further pushes MSPs to focus on services surrounding the core product, rather than on direct product resale or thin margin opportunities.A significant operational shift within the channel also emerges: the distinction between “influence” and “execution” partners. Vendor programs increasingly recognize partner contributions outside of transactional resale, such as co-selling, advisory contributions, and services attached before or after the point of sale. This trend is reinforced as platforms move toward “point systems” and indirect revenue attribution, redefining how MSPs measure channel health and partner value in a more complex, multi-partner environment.For MSPs, IT providers, and decision-makers, the key operational implications are clear. Traditional growth through seat expansion is less reliable as hiring softens, and managed services must focus on multiplier opportunities—profitable service revenue attached to each dollar of product sold. Capturing value requires adapting to changing program structures, emphasizing trusted advisor roles, and collaborating effectively with adjacent partners. Near-term investment in understanding and building pre-sales AI and security services, and tracking evolving vendor economics, is essential for navigating the new realities of partner participation, risk allocation, and long-term business health.
We've started to see spots of what looks to be recovery in our economy over recent months. It's not consistent, but it's frequent enough to give us some hope for the year to come. Westpac is picking a whole lot of OCR hikes from the end of this year, and other forecasts seem to set a similar scene - a better economy is coming, and rates will have to reflect that when the time comes. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Another SailGP event has come to Auckland, drawing the crowds over to the city's waterfront to catch al the action. Last year's SailGP event generated over $5 million in GDP for the city, and the organisers are hoping for a similar result this time round. Tātaki Auckland Unlimited CEO Nick Hill joined Piney to discuss the benefits of the event. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
It's Valentine's Day, and there's nothing more romantic than talking about money with your partner. Well, maybe not. But it is important because studies show that financial acrimony can lead to marital disharmony. Soon after they got married, Motley Fool Money host Robert Brokamp and his wife, Elizabeth, wrote what they called their financial manifesto – an agreement about how they'd manage money as a couple. Twenty-six years and four kids later, Robert and Elizabeth discuss what was in it, what worked, and what didn't.Also in this episode:-The dowdy Dow has its day, crossing 50,000 and beating the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq over the past few months-The job market is giving mixed signals, with the unemployment rate dropping – but so are job openings-The CBO projects that Uncle Sam's debt-to-GDP ratio will exceed its all-time high over the coming years-Send us your tips, tricks, and recommendations for monitoring your finances and maintaining money harmony as a coupleHost: Robert BrokampGuest: Elizabeth BrokampEngineer: Bart Shannon Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement.We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode.Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Larry Kudlow and his guests argue that achieving 3.5% real GDP growth is the essential key to balancing the national debt and ensuring long-term prosperity. They critique the conservative estimates of the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve, asserting that these institutions fail to account for the massive economic potential of deregulation and productivity booms driven by artificial intelligence. The discussion emphasizes that a combination of low taxes and reduced regulatory costs will foster an environment of unlimited growth, effectively countering the redistributionist policies of political opponents. Finally, the group addresses internal administration shifts, celebrating a move toward free-market antitrust principles over populist interventions to ensure American corporate dominance remains unchallenged. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Larry Kudlow and his guests argue that achieving 3.5% real GDP growth is the essential key to balancing the national debt and ensuring long-term prosperity. They critique the conservative estimates of the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve, asserting that these institutions fail to account for the massive economic potential of deregulation and productivity booms driven by artificial intelligence. The discussion emphasizes that a combination of low taxes and reduced regulatory costs will foster an environment of unlimited growth, effectively countering the redistributionist policies of political opponents. Finally, the group addresses internal administration shifts, celebrating a move toward free-market antitrust principles over populist interventions to ensure American corporate dominance remains unchallenged. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Larry Kudlow and his guests argue that achieving 3.5% real GDP growth is the essential key to balancing the national debt and ensuring long-term prosperity. They critique the conservative estimates of the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve, asserting that these institutions fail to account for the massive economic potential of deregulation and productivity booms driven by artificial intelligence. The discussion emphasizes that a combination of low taxes and reduced regulatory costs will foster an environment of unlimited growth, effectively countering the redistributionist policies of political opponents. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
In this episode of John Solomon Reports, we cover a remarkable operation that recently took place in Venezuela, where President Trump commended our military's success in capturing fugitive president Nicolas Maduro with minimal bloodshed. John reflects on the significance of this event and the bravery of those involved, highlighting the strength and capability of the U.S. military.The show features an insightful conversation with House Administration Committee Chairman Brian Steil, who shares alarming findings from election integrity reports regarding the upcoming 2024 election. As concerns mount over potential irregularities, Chairman Steil discusses the critical Save America Act, which aims to ensure voter registration checks and ID requirements, marking a significant step in the fight for election integrity.In the second segment, former ICE Director Mark Morgan joins John to discuss the conclusion of the first phase of President Trump's immigration crackdown and offers a glimpse into what phase two might entail. With millions of illegal immigrants still in the country, Morgan outlines strategies for future enforcement.The episode also addresses the current state of the economy, featuring Shannon Davis from American Alternative Assets, who analyzes recent job creation numbers and GDP growth. While optimism is rising, Davis warns of potential pitfalls, particularly in the commercial real estate market, and discusses the implications of central bank digital currencies on privacy and spending autonomy.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Commercial real estate could be a major story in 2026. In this episode of Real Estate News for Investors, Kathy Fettke breaks down CBRE's 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook and why investment activity is expected to rise 16% — even as GDP growth slows. We cover what's ahead for cap rates, income-driven returns, and key sectors including office, industrial, retail, multifamily, and data centers. With two expected Fed rate cuts and easing inflation, how could financing conditions impact commercial property performance? If you're looking for data-backed insight into where commercial real estate is headed in 2026, this episode outlines the risks, opportunities, and what investors should watch next. Want to learn more? Listen to our other podcast: www.Realwealthshow.com Source: https://www.cbre.com/insights/books/us-real-estate-market-outlook-2026
From new cancer drugs to batteries and robotics – China's top-tier growth companies are forging paths of their own rather than following in the west's footsteps. Investment manager Sophie Earnshaw names companies that have caught her eye and explains why being a long-term stock picker differs in China from elsewhere. Background:Sophie Earnshaw is a decision-maker on our China Equities Strategy and joint manager of the Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust. In this conversation, she tells Short Briefings… host Leo Kelion about a select group of Chinese companies breaking new ground, supported by the state's efforts to become self-sufficient in more of today's critical technologies and a leader in some of those of the future. Earnshaw also details how the “phenomenal rate” at which companies are born, scale and die in the country makes stock-picking a challenging task – making the access we have to company leaders, academics and other local expertise core to our mission of finding the best firms to invest in on behalf of our clients. Portfolio companies discussed include:- CATL – the battery maker whose products power electric vehicles worldwide and increasingly support the renewable energy sector- BeOne and Innovent Biologics – pharmaceutical firms developing the next generation of cancer drugs - AMEC and NAURA – semiconductor equipment makers enabling China to develop increased self-reliance in computer chips - Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent – China's ‘big tech' companies, whose artificial intelligence tools are becoming embedded into people's daily lives- MiniMax – the AI startup rolling out video and agentic tools at a fraction of the cost of western counterparts- Horizon Robotics – the automated driving tech provider with its eye on an even bigger opportunity. Resources:Baillie Gifford podcastsChina: a tale of two storiesChina investment strategy hub (institutional clients only)House of HuaweiPrivate investor forum 2025: investing in great growth companiesTrip notes: on the road with Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust Companies mentioned include:AlibabaAMECASMLBeOneByteDanceCATLHorizon RoboticsInnovent BiologicsJiangsu HengruiHuaweiMiniMaxSamsungNAURATencentTSMCXiaohongshu Timecodes:00:00 Introduction01:55 Joining the China Equities Strategy02:40 Intense competition04:00 The government's influence06:10 CATL, the electrification champion08:45 Investing with a 5-year time horizon10:25 Shanghai office, local expertise11:45 Regulations and geopolitics14:30 China's next Five-year Plan16:15 Innovent Biologics' new cancer drugs18:10 Lower-cost clinical trials19:45 Being selective in semiconductors21:25 Investing in chip equipment makers23:00 China's ‘big tech and AI'25:10 MiniMax making AI like ‘tap water'27:45 The road to robotics29:35 A market you can't ignore30:30 Book choice Glossary of terms (in order of mention): Third plenum: a major policy meeting of China's ruling Communist Party, often used to set big economic/political direction.Sovereign bond issuance: The government raising money by selling bonds (IOUs) to investors.Opportunity set: the range of investable companies available to choose from.Capex: capital expenditure – money spent on long-term assets like factories, equipment, or data centres.Fiscal deficit target: how much more the government plans to spend than it collects in revenue (taxes plus other income), expressed as a share of the economy.GDP: gross domestic product – the total value of goods and services a country produces in a year.Market capitalisation: the total value of a company's shares (share price × number of shares).ESG: environmental, social and governance – how a company manages environmental impact, people issues, and corporate oversight.Large-form batteries: big battery packs used in things like electric vehicles and grid storage.Energy storage systems: large batteries that store electricity for later use (helping balance the grid).Generic drugs: copies of medicines whose patents have expired; usually cheaper, same active ingredient.Bi-specific (bispecific) drugs: drugs designed to bind to two targets at once (often to direct immune cells to cancer).ADC drugs: antibody–drug conjugates – antibodies that deliver a toxic payload to cancer cells.Out-licensing: selling rights to your drug/technology to another company (often for upfront + milestone payments).EUV machines: extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment used to make the most advanced chips.Foundry: a factory business that manufactures chips for other companies.Etch and deposition: steps in chipmaking – etch removes material to form patterns, deposition adds thin layers.Picks and shovels: a metaphor for companies that sell essential tools to an industry (rather than end products).Digitalisation: moving processes and services from offline to software and data-driven systems.Compute: the processing power (chips and servers) used to train/run AI.Large language model (LLM): an AI trained on lots of text to generate and understand language.Margins: how much profit a company makes per pound/dollar of revenue (after costs).Cloud business: selling computing power/storage/software over the internet instead of on a local machine.Algorithm layer: the method or software logic that makes the AI work (as distinct from the hardware).Gross margin: revenue minus direct costs (before overheads), a rough measure of product profitability.Assisted driving: features that help a driver (lane-keeping, adaptive cruise control, etc) but don't fully replace them.Autonomous driving: a car driving itself with minimal or no human input.Software attachment rate: the percentage of customers who add paid software features and/or subscriptions.
ถอดรหัสปฏิรูป ‘เวียดนาม' รื้อโครงสร้างรัฐครั้งประวัติศาสตร์ สั่งปลดข้าราชการ 1.5 แสนคน ยึดหลักความซื่อสัตย์ ความสามารถ ความเชี่ยวชาญ สู่ภารกิจปั้น GDP โต 10% ต่อปี บริษัทจดทะเบียนสหรัฐฯ ประกาศงบไตรมาส 4 ออกมาเป็นอย่างไรบ้าง ส่งผลกระทบต่อภูมิทัศน์การลงทุนอย่างไร พูดคุยกับ ชาตรี โรจนอาภา CFA, FRM หัวหน้าทีมที่ปรึกษาการลงทุน SCB CIO ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์
APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the losses stateside, where tech underperformed as AI-disruption concerns re-emerged, and logistics/industrials stocks were also pressured after Algorhythm Holdings (RIME) released its AI freight scaling tool.US President Trump said we have to make a deal with Iran and could reach a deal over the next month.US President Trump reiterated he is going to China in April and that Chinese President Xi will visit the US later this year, while he added the relationship with China is very good right now.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Prices (Jan), Swiss CPI (Jan), EZ Prelim Employment (Q4), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q4), US CPI (Jan), Speakers including ECB's de Guindos, BoE's Pill, Earnings from Moderna & NatWest.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
ถอดรหัสปฏิรูป ‘เวียดนาม' รื้อโครงสร้างรัฐครั้งประวัติศาสตร์ สั่งปลดข้าราชการ 1.5 แสนคน ยึดหลักความซื่อสัตย์ ความสามารถ ความเชี่ยวชาญ สู่ภารกิจปั้น GDP โต 10% ต่อปีบริษัทจดทะเบียนสหรัฐฯ ประกาศงบไตรมาส 4 ออกมาเป็นอย่างไรบ้าง ส่งผลกระทบต่อภูมิทัศน์การลงทุนอย่างไร พูดคุยกับ ชาตรี โรจนอาภา CFA, FRM หัวหน้าทีมที่ปรึกษาการลงทุน SCB CIO ธนาคารไทยพาณิชย์
From the lows of December retail sales to the highs of January payrolls, recent US data has sent mixed signals. But the economy remains in relatively good shape, argues Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown on the latest episode of the Capital Economics Weekly Briefing. He explores why the idea of a “K-shaped” economy may be overstated, what markets are missing about the productivity growth upturn, and the chances of much lower rates from a Kevin Warsh-led Fed. Also on the show, as Keir Starmer's government reels from one of its toughest weeks yet, Deputy Chief UK Economist Ruth Gregory assesses what a change of leadership could mean for the UK economy and financial markets, but also why the long-term growth outlook may not be as bleak as recent headlines suggest.AI already making a big contribution to US productivity growthWhy we still believe in the AI rally, and the S&P 500Would a stock market crash cause a global recession?Can China's trade surplus rise further?
HISTORY This Week will return with new episodes this Monday, February 16th, with a story about the most vital train tunnels in the United States. The North River Tunnels—their formal name—connect New Jersey to Penn Station in New York City, carrying 200,000 passengers every day. These tunnels underneath the Hudson are now over 115 years old, and are in desperate need of repair. The tunnel rehabilitation effort will be the largest infrastructure project in the country. It's just getting underway, but now, the funding has been tied up in a political battle between the Trump Administration, Amtrak, and the states of New York and New Jersey. The stakes could not be higher. If these tunnels were to fail, up to 20% of U.S. GDP could be at risk. In this episode, we will unpack just how difficult it was to dig these tunnels in the first place. One man, Pennsylvania Railroad President Alexander Cassatt, was determined to build this critical rail connection, ultimately linking the entire Eastern Seaboard via train for the first time, using engineering methods that had never been tried before. If he failed, his corporation—the largest in the world at the time—would have been doomed.
Global markets are leaning into growth. Following the upside surprise in U.S. non-farm payrolls — with 130,000 jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.3% — investors are focusing on economic resilience rather than fading hopes of aggressive rate cuts. MSCI's All-World index is trading near record highs, while South Korea's Kospi has crossed 5,500 for the first time. Attention now turns to initial jobless claims and the upcoming CPI print, which could shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's June decision. CME FedWatch odds for a rate hold have climbed to 40%. In the UK, GDP expanded just 0.1% in Q4, while industrial production fell unexpectedly. Meanwhile, Nuveen has agreed to acquire asset manager Schroders for $13.5 billion. In digital assets, crypto markets remain steady despite Blockfills halting withdrawals. BlackRock is deepening its move into tokenized finance, bringing its Treasury-backed BUIDL token to Uniswap through Securitize. Court drama surrounding FTX has resurfaced, and Kraken has replaced its CFO ahead of its public listing. A busy macro backdrop with institutional crypto developments accelerating beneath the surface.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has outlined her intentions bring down barriers to closer integration with the EU's defence industry - with an eye on its huge spending plans. We speak to the UK industry's trade body to discover what's at stake. And ahead of the publication of the UK's GDP figures for the end of last year, we speak to a businesswoman and a finance expert to hear their thoughts on what the economy needs to grow. Also, musical Billy Elliot is going on tour, more than 20 years after it left the West End. We'll be finding out why shows like this are so important to keep the arts alive outside London.
Cameron Dawson says there are 2 key indicators to watch right now: market leadership and intermarket analysis, including high-yield spreads. She is closely watching the ratio between consumer discretionary and consumer staples stocks as she points out that consumer spending accounts for 2/3 of U.S. GDP. Later, Cameron discusses the SaaS selling, or as she calls it "software as a soreness," as a crowded trade with companies that held lighter assets. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
CRE Exchange: Commercial Real Estate, Property Valuations, Real Estate Analytics and Property Tax
Bank lending standards are easing, CRE financing competition is rising, and even office is seeing selective reengagement. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, share and discuss the latest SLOOS data, earnings insights from major banks and asset managers, county-level GDP data, consumer sentiment, and small business optimism. Featuring a special conversation with Andrew Pabon, Director of Debt Advisory at Altus Group, on the latest trends from Altus Group's Debt Capital Market Survey.Key moments01:47 Stat of the Day: Multifamily property age03:09 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey insights07:48 ADP employment data analysis10:07 County-level GDP data breakdown16:19 Consumer and business sentiment reports20:58 Earnings season highlights27:55 CRE Debt Capital Market Survey results with Andrew Pabon47:02 Upcoming Data Releases and AnnouncementsResources mentionedReonomy: https://www.altusgroup.com/solutions/reonomy/ Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202601.htm ADP Employment Report: https://adpemploymentreport.com BEA County-Level GDP & Personal Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gross-domestic-product-county-and-personal-income-county-2024 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-above-52-year-average/ Altus Debt Capital Market Survey: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/ Altus Connect: https://www.altusgroup.com/connect/
China's Commerce Ministry announces a tariff of up to 11.7% (prev. 42.7%) on EU dairy products; effective from February 13th.European equities broadly in the green; Financials lead as Schroders (+28.5%) gets acquired by Nuveen; US equity futures are entirely in the green.G10s mostly firmer against the USD; AUD takes a slight breather.Gilts lead after soft GDP though BoE pricing largely unaffected; USTs tread water ahead of Friday's CPI.WTI and Brent trade slightly lower as geopolitics remain quiet; IEA cut 2026 global oil demand growth and nudged lower supply growth forecasts.Looking ahead, highlights include US Weekly/Continuing Claims, Existing Home Sales (Jan), EU Informal Leaders Retreat, Speakers including ECBʼs Lane & Nagel, BoCʼs Rogers, Supply from the US, Earnings from Applied Materials, Arista Networks, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Howmet Aerospace, Coinbase & American Electric Power.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
As global trade tensions reshape the economic landscape, Monika unpacks what India's recent wave of trade agreements really means. Triggered in part by sharp tariff actions and the growing use of trade as a geopolitical weapon, India has moved quickly to diversify its export markets and reduce dependence on any single partner. This episode explains, in simple terms, how tariffs, free trade agreements, and shifting supply chains affect growth, jobs, and markets — and why these deals matter far beyond headline diplomacy.Monika walks through the major agreements signed with the UK, EU, EFTA nations, Oman, New Zealand, and the United States, and explains how they could boost exports, attract investment, and create jobs in sectors such as textiles, manufacturing, technology, and services. She also discusses the broader macro impact — from strengthening India's negotiating position globally to supporting long-term GDP growth and market sentiment — while reminding investors that short-term market reactions often miss the bigger structural story.In listener questions, Avinash Mundhra asks about moving beyond basic index investing into strategy-based indices and whether ULIPs linked to such indices make sense; Venkatesh Kumaran from Spain seeks guidance on balancing loan repayment with saving for future goals and on investing in Indian mutual funds as an NRI planning to return; and Gaurav Madan writes about whether model-driven advisory approaches to mutual fund selection are superior to simple, transparent investing methods.Chapters:(00:00 – 00:00) Why India Is Signing Trade Deals After the Tariff Shock(00:00 – 00:00) How New FTAs Could Boost Exports, Jobs and GDP(00:00 – 00:00) Mid- and Small-Cap Index Funds, Multicap Funds and the ULIP Debate(00:00 – 00:00) Paying Off Loans vs Investing and NRI Mutual Fund Considerations(00:00 – 00:00) Choosing Equity Mutual Funds and the Risks of Model-Based AdvisoryIf you have financial questions that you'd like answers for, please email us at mailme@monikahalan.com Monika's book on basic money managementhttps://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-money-english/Monika's book on mutual fundshttps://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-mutual-funds/Monika's workbook on recording your financial lifehttps://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-legacy/Calculatorshttps://investor.sebi.gov.in/calculators/index.htmlYou can find Monika on her social media @monikahalan. Twitter @MonikaHalanInstagram @MonikaHalanFacebook @MonikaHalanLinkedIn @MonikaHalanProduction House: www.inoutcreatives.comProduction Assistant: Anshika Gogoi
Behind every commercial vehicle is a driver facing increased pressure and rising safety concerns. Today at Geotab Connect, Geotab Inc. announced the expansion of the GO Focus Family to include the new GO Focus Pro Dash Cam. The launch comes as Geotab research highlights a critical tension in the transport industry: while 95% of Irish commercial drivers recognise the benefits of video telematics for their own protection, they are operating under unprecedented strain. Other recent Geotab findings show that 99% of Irish drivers believe road risks have increased over the last five years, with work-related stress identified as a primary driver of declining road safety.This protection has become a business necessity as road accidents now cost the European economy an estimated €180 billion annually — representing approximately 2% of the EU's GDP. In this landscape, data insights are essential to defend both the organisation's bottom line and the professional integrity of the person behind the wheel. Geotab's GO Focus Pro addresses these challenges by combining full 360-degree visibility with AI-powered coaching and in-cab alerts. While high-impact collisions can result in severe human and financial consequences, lower-speed incidents, such as backing or docking, remain common sources of preventable damage, often caused by blind spots and limited visibility. By proactively addressing both safety-critical and operational risks, GO Focus Pro helps reduce incidents, lower stress behind the wheel, and support broader business objectives. "AI delivers its greatest impact when it helps prevent risk in the moment, not after the fact," said Claude Hochreutiner, Principal Video Program Manager at Geotab. "GO Focus Pro brings real-time intelligence into the cab, giving drivers greater awareness and confidence while enabling fleets to take a more proactive approach to safety. By combining 360-degree visibility with high-precision AI, we're helping organizations protect their drivers, reduce operational risk, and build safer roads for everyone." GO Focus Pro: 360-degree visibility GO Focus Pro is natively integrated into the MyGeotab platform to provide fleets the most complete safety video telematics solution available, combining full surround visibility with higher-end AI models and continuous inference. Key capabilities include: 360-Degree Visibility: Support for up to five weatherproof auxiliary cameras, providing complete coverage of the vehicle, driver, cargo, and surrounding environment, including trailers. Predictive AI Safety Features: Detection of traffic-light violations, forward-collision warnings, and vulnerable road users in blind spots using AI models on external auxiliary cameras. Driver Score: An automated scoring system that helps identify repeat infractions and risky behavior patterns, such as mobile phone use or fatigue, to prioritise coaching and recognise safe driving. Smart Sequence: A streamlined, high-signal view of the most important fleet events, reducing noise and minimising the staff required for review. Automated Coaching & Sessions: Real-time in-cab audio alerts enable immediate self-correction, while managers can assign and track coaching sessions directly within the platform. AI Driver Assignment: Automated identification of the driver behind the wheel through existing RFID/NFC cards or face, simplifying administration and improving data accuracy. Zero-Latency Backup Monitor: An instant, latency-free video feed to support precise backing, docking, other low-speed manoeuvers, and blind spot overview. No Systematic Human Review: Unlike many market alternatives, GO Focus Pro uses a full AI-driven pipeline without systematic human review based in faraway parts of the world. With full surround video coverage and predictive AI, GO Focus Pro gives fleets the visibility and intelligence needed to protect drivers, vehicles, and the communities they serve. The solution accelerates incident investigations, helps defend ag...
Today on the Giant Ideas podcast we are joined by Andrew Yang.When Andrew Yang, a political outsider, ran for US President in 2020 his campaign hinged on a warning: he predicted that a huge number of jobs would be lost by automation. His solution was a monthly universal basic income (UBI) of $1,000, designed to offset the job losses.Now, six years later, it appears Yang might have been onto something. Dario Amodei, CEO of AI Giant Anthropic, has predicted that half of entry level white collar jobs will be eliminated in the next 3-5 years - spiking US unemployment to over 10%.So, is UBI still the answer? Would UBI create a dystopian world of state-supported benefits, and loss of meaning? Or could UBI lead to more purpose, hope and a sense of buy-in to the American economy?Listen to find out more about UBI, why 'elite oversupply' causes social unrest, why people are severely underestimating how disruptive AI will be compared to past industrial revolutions, and why he thinks we should redesign the economy around human flourishing, not just GDP...Andrew is also the founder of a nonprofit called Humanity Forward, and he co-founded the Forward Party, a new political party in America aiming to bridge partisan divides. Today his focus is on his new company - launched in late 2025. With Noble Mobile, aiming to cut out the middle man and make mobile data cheaper for Americans.Building a purpose driven company? Read more about Giant Ventures at www.Giant.vc.Music credits: Bubble King written and produced by Cameron McLain and Stevan Cablayan aka Vector_XING. Please note: The content of this podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. It should not be considered financial, legal, or investment advice. Always consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.
Hotel Pacifico was created by Air Quotes Media with support from our presenting sponsor TELUS, as well as FortisBC.With Geoff away, it's two Michaels hosting, what could go wrong? - Our regular Mike, and Michael Gardiner, a veteran of backroom NDP politics. They welcome Greater Vancouver Board of Trade CEO Bridgitte Anderson back to Hotel Pacifico. Anderson discusses the Board's call for 3% GDP growth and how BC's economy is not yet measuring up. Major projects will help, but it will take a lot more to prime the economic pump, such as a new Defence Bank that the Premier and the Board of Trade are backing. They discuss the upcoming budget and how investors are getting the shivers due to recent Court decisions and the opportunity and impact of Vancouver hosting FIFA. In the Strategy Suite, Mike and Michael look ahead to upcoming Legislative session, the Greens going from yellow to red on their confidence agreement with the NDP, duelling Geoffs on DRIPA (but not our Geoff), and the latest on the BC Conservative leadership race. The horses won't all fit on one racetrack.
Patrick Bet-David, Tom Ellsworth & Brandon Aceto are joined by Peter Schiff and Luke Groman as they break down the January jobs report, Trump's 15% GDP and $100K Dow predictions, El Paso airspace shutdown and Epstein revelations, and market reactions spanning gold, Bitcoin, nuclear IPO momentum, and the Tai Lopez FBI investigation.-------Ⓜ️ CONNECT ON MINNECT: https://bit.ly/4kSVkso Ⓜ️ PBD PODCAST CIRCLES: https://bit.ly/4mAWQAP
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Henrik Zeberg to the show. Henrik Zeberg is Head Macro Economist at Swissblock. In this in-depth discussion, Zeberg provides a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape, focusing on potential market dynamics and an impending economic recession. Zeberg argues that the current market, particularly in technology and AI, resembles the dot-com bubble, with valuations reaching unsustainable levels. He suggests that while AI will indeed be transformative, the current market exuberance is reminiscent of previous technological bubbles where expectations far outpace immediate economic realities. The market capitalization to GDP ratio currently stands at approximately 230%, compared to 137% during the dot-com bubble, indicating extreme market overvaluation. Regarding the economic outlook, Zeberg predicts a recession starting no later than the second quarter of 2026, potentially in March or April. He points to significant weaknesses in the job market, with job creation at its lowest levels in 50 years and a growing disconnect between the financial world and real economic conditions. The labor market indicators suggest a substantial economic slowdown, with 50% of consumer spending coming from just 10% of the population. Henrik anticipates a complex economic cycle involving an initial deflationary period followed by potential inflationary pressures. He expects the Federal Reserve will attempt to intervene, potentially creating a market rally before an eventual significant market correction. He suggests that investors should be prepared for volatility and consider hard assets like real estate, commodities, and precious metals as potential long-term investments. In terms of investment strategy, Zeberg recommends controlling emotional responses, avoiding getting caught in market euphoria, and being patient. He believes the current environment requires careful navigation, with potential opportunities emerging after a meaningful market pullback. The key is understanding that the era of double-digit growth in speculative assets is likely coming to an end. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:46 – AI vs Dotcom Bubble 00:04:20 – Current Market Valuations 00:09:58 – Market Cap GDP Anomalies 00:12:07 – Consumer Job Market Weakness 00:15:18 – Delinquency Trends 00:16:38 – Historical Recession Parallels 00:18:40 – Government Debt Constraints 00:21:24 – Fed Intervention Inflation 00:26:25 – Deflationary to Inflationary Shift 00:29:37 – Asset Allocation Strategies 00:32:00 – Key Economic Indicators 00:36:05 – Gold Silver Outlook 00:43:14 – Recession Timeline Prediction Guest Links: Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg Website: https://swissblock.net/ Henrik Zeberg is a Macroeconomist (M.Sc. Econ) from the University of Copenhagen. He is a Business Cycles student, Elliott Wave practitioner, and Chartist. He is the Head Macro Economist at Swissblock where he writes the Zeberg letter a comprehensive monthly macroeconomic report.
Episode 315 dives into a conversation Canada needs to be having right now. Erin Benjamin, President and CEO of the Canadian Live Music Association, breaks down why live music is one of the most powerful and misunderstood economic engines in the country. This episode goes far beyond concerts and culture, unpacking how live music fuels jobs, tourism, talent attraction, and city growth, while contributing billions to Canada's GDP. Despite its impact, the industry remains largely undervalued and underinvested, not because it lacks potential, but because business and policy have failed to fully recognize what's already working.Drawing from more than three decades in the music industry, Erin Benjamin explains what it will take to unlock the next phase of growth and why Canada is standing at a critical inflection point. From de-risking promoters and venues to integrating live music into economic development and tourism strategies, this episode makes a compelling case for why now is the moment to act. If Canada wants stronger cities, better talent retention, and globally competitive cultural industries, this conversation makes it clear that investing in live music isn't optional anymore, it's strategic.Rockstars, I just want to say thank you. Three years ago, this show started as an idea and a conversation I felt needed to exist. Today, it exists because you kept showing up, listening, sharing, challenging ideas, and supporting the journey week after week. Your support has turned this podcast into a global community, and I'm incredibly grateful for every download, every message, every conversation sparked because of it.Here's to the last three years of growth, learning, and momentum and to what we're building next. If you've been here since day one or you just joined us recently, know this: this show doesn't happen without you. Appreciate you all more than you know.
Infrastructure was passé…uncool. Difficult to get dollars from Private Equity and Growth funds, and almost impossible to get a VC fund interested. Now?! Now, it's cool. Infrastructure seems to be having a Renaissance, a full on Rebirth, not just fueled by commercial interests (e.g. advent of AI), but also by industrial policy and geopolitical considerations. In this episode of Tech Deciphered, we explore what's cool in the infrastructure spaces, including mega trends in semiconductors, energy, networking & connectivity, manufacturing Navigation: Intro We're back to building things Why now: the 5 forces behind the renaissance Semiconductors: compute is the new oil Networking & connectivity: digital highways get rebuilt Energy: rebuilding the power stack (not just renewables) Manufacturing: the return of “atoms + bits” Wrap: what it means for startups, incumbents, and investors Conclusion Our co-hosts: Bertrand Schmitt, Entrepreneur in Residence at Red River West, co-founder of App Annie / Data.ai, business angel, advisor to startups and VC funds, @bschmitt Nuno Goncalves Pedro, Investor, Managing Partner, Founder at Chamaeleon, @ngpedro Our show: Tech DECIPHERED brings you the Entrepreneur and Investor views on Big Tech, VC and Start-up news, opinion pieces and research. We decipher their meaning, and add inside knowledge and context. Being nerds, we also discuss the latest gadgets and pop culture news Subscribe To Our Podcast Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Introduction Welcome to episode 73 of Tech Deciphered, Infrastructure, the Rebirth or Renaissance. Infrastructure was passé, it wasn’t cool, but all of a sudden now everyone’s talking about network, talking about compute and semiconductors, talking about logistics, talking about energy. What gives? What’s happened? It was impossible in the past to get any funds, venture capital, even, to be honest, some private equity funds or growth funds interested in some of these areas, but now all of a sudden everyone thinks it’s cool. The infrastructure seems to be having a renaissance, a full-on rebirth. In this episode, we will explore in which cool ways the infrastructure spaces are moving and what’s leading to it. We will deep dive into the forces that are leading us to this. We will deep dive into semiconductors, networking and connectivity, energy, manufacturing, and then we’ll wrap up. Bertrand, so infrastructure is cool now. Bertrand Schmitt We're back to building things Yes. I thought software was going to eat the world. I cannot believe it was then, maybe even 15 years ago, from Andreessen, that quote about software eating the world. I guess it’s an eternal balance. Sometimes you go ahead of yourself, you build a lot of software stack, and at some point, you need the hardware to run this software stack, and there is only so much the bits can do in a world of atoms. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Obviously, we’ve gone through some of this before. I think what we’re going through right now is AI is eating the world, and because AI is eating the world, it’s driving a lot of this infrastructure building that we need. We don’t have enough energy to be consumed by all these big data centers and hyperscalers. We need to be innovative around network as well because of the consumption in terms of network bandwidth that is linked to that consumption as well. In some ways, it’s not software eating the world, AI is eating the world. Because AI is eating the world, we need to rethink everything around infrastructure and infrastructure becoming cool again. Bertrand Schmitt There is something deeper in this. It’s that the past 10, even 15 years were all about SaaS before AI. SaaS, interestingly enough, was very energy-efficient. When I say SaaS, I mean cloud computing at large. What I mean by energy-efficient is that actually cloud computing help make energy use more efficient because instead of companies having their own separate data centers in many locations, sometimes poorly run from an industrial perspective, replace their own privately run data center with data center run by the super scalers, the hyperscalers of the world. These data centers were run much better in terms of how you manage the coolings, the energy efficiency, the rack density, all of this stuff. Actually, the cloud revolution didn’t increase the use of electricity. The cloud revolution was actually a replacement from your private data center to the hyperscaler data center, which was energy efficient. That’s why we didn’t, even if we are always talking about that growth of cloud computing, we were never feeling the pinch in term of electricity. As you say, we say it all changed because with AI, it was not a simple “Replacement” of locally run infrastructure to a hyperscaler run infrastructure. It was truly adding on top of an existing infrastructure, a new computing infrastructure in a way out of nowhere. Not just any computing infrastructure, an energy infrastructure that was really, really voracious in term of energy use. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro There was one other effect. Obviously, we’ve discussed before, we are in a bubble. We won’t go too much into that today. But the previous big bubble in tech, which is in the late ’90s, there was a lot of infrastructure built. We thought the internet was going to take over back then. It didn’t take over immediately, but there was a lot of network connectivity, bandwidth built back in the day. Companies imploded because of that as well, or had to restructure and go in their chapter 11. A lot of the big telco companies had their own issues back then, etc., but a lot of infrastructure was built back then for this advent of the internet, which would then take a long time to come. In some ways, to your point, there was a lot of latent supply that was built that was around that for a while wasn’t used, but then it was. Now it’s been used, and now we need new stuff. That’s why I feel now we’re having the new moment of infrastructure, new moment of moving forward, aligned a little bit with what you just said around cloud computing and the advent of SaaS, but also around the fact that we had a lot of buildup back in the late ’90s, early ’90s, which we’re now still reaping the benefits on in today’s world. Bertrand Schmitt Yeah, that’s actually a great point because what was built in the late ’90s, there was a lot of fibre that was built. Laying out the fibre either across countries, inside countries. This fibre, interestingly enough, you could just change the computing on both sides of the fibre, the routing, the modems, and upgrade the capacity of the fibre. But the fibre was the same in between. The big investment, CapEx investment, was really lying down that fibre, but then you could really upgrade easily. Even if both ends of the fibre were either using very old infrastructure from the ’90s or were actually dark and not being put to use, step by step, it was being put to use, equipment was replaced, and step by step, you could keep using more and more of this fibre. It was a very interesting development, as you say, because it could be expanded over the years, where if we talk about GPUs, use for AI, GPUs, the interesting part is actually it’s totally the opposite. After a few years, it’s useless. Some like Google, will argue that they can depreciate over 5, 6 years, even some GPUs. But at the end of the day, the difference in perf and energy efficiency of the GPUs means that if you are energy constrained, you just want to replace the old one even as young as three-year-old. You have to look at Nvidia increasing spec, generation after generation. It’s pretty insane. It’s usually at least 3X year over year in term of performance. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro At this moment in time, it’s very clear that it’s happening. Why now: the 5 forces behind the renaissance Maybe let’s deep dive into why it’s happening now. What are the key forces around this? We’ve identified, I think, five forces that are particularly vital that lead to the world we’re in right now. One we’ve already talked about, which is AI, the demand shock and everything that’s happened because of AI. Data centers drive power demand, drive grid upgrades, drive innovative ways of getting energy, drive chips, drive networking, drive cooling, drive manufacturing, drive all the things that we’re going to talk in just a bit. One second element that we could probably highlight in terms of the forces that are behind this is obviously where we are in terms of cost curves around technology. Obviously, a lot of things are becoming much cheaper. The simulation of physical behaviours has become a lot more cheap, which in itself, this becomes almost a vicious cycle in of itself, then drives the adoption of more and more AI and stuff. But anyway, the simulation is becoming more and more accessible, so you can do a lot of simulation with digital twins and other things off the real world before you go into the real world. Robotics itself is becoming, obviously, cheaper. Hardware, a lot of the hardware is becoming cheaper. Computer has become cheaper as well. Obviously, there’s a lot of cost curves that have aligned that, and that’s maybe the second force that I would highlight. Obviously, funds are catching up. We’ll leave that a little bit to the end. We’ll do a wrap-up and talk a little bit about the implications to investors. But there’s a lot of capital out there, some capital related to industrial policy, other capital related to private initiative, private equity, growth funds, even venture capital, to be honest, and a few other elements on that. That would be a third force that I would highlight. Bertrand Schmitt Yes. Interestingly enough, in terms of capital use, and we’ll talk more about this, but some firms, if we are talking about energy investment, it was very difficult to invest if you are not investing in green energy. Now I think more and more firms and banks are willing to invest or support different type of energy infrastructure, not just, “Green energy.” That’s an interesting development because at some point it became near impossible to invest more in gas development, in oil development in the US or in most Western countries. At least in the US, this is dramatically changing the framework. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Maybe to add the two last forces that I think we see behind the renaissance of what’s happening in infrastructure. They go hand in hand. One is the geopolitics of the world right now. Obviously, the world was global flat, and now it’s becoming increasingly siloed, so people are playing it to their own interests. There’s a lot of replication of infrastructure as well because people want to be autonomous, and they want to drive their own ability to serve end consumers, businesses, etc., in terms of data centers and everything else. That ability has led to things like, for example, chips shortage. The fact that there are semiconductors, there are shortages across the board, like memory shortages, where everything is packed up until 2027 of 2028. A lot of the memory that was being produced is already spoken for, which is shocking. There’s obviously generation of supply chain fragilities, obviously, some of it because of policies, for example, in the US with tariffs, etc, security of energy, etc. Then the last force directly linked to the geopolitics is the opposite of it, which is the policy as an accelerant, so to speak, as something that is accelerating development, where because of those silos, individual countries, as part their industrial policy, then want to put capital behind their local ecosystems, their local companies, so that their local companies and their local systems are for sure the winners, or at least, at the very least, serve their own local markets. I think that’s true of a lot of the things we’re seeing, for example, in the US with the Chips Act, for semiconductors, with IGA, IRA, and other elements of what we’ve seen in terms of practices, policies that have been implemented even in Europe, China, and other parts of the world. Bertrand Schmitt Talking about chips shortages, it’s pretty insane what has been happening with memory. Just the past few weeks, I have seen a close to 3X increase in price in memory prices in a matter of weeks. Apparently, it started with a huge order from OpenAI. Apparently, they have tried to corner the memory market. Interestingly enough, it has flat-footed the entire industry, and that includes Google, that includes Microsoft. There are rumours of their teams now having moved to South Korea, so they are closer to the action in terms of memory factories and memory decision-making. There are rumours of execs who got fired because they didn’t prepare for this type of eventuality or didn’t lock in some of the supply chain because that memory was initially for AI, but obviously, it impacts everything because factories making memories, you have to plan years in advance to build memories. You cannot open new lines of manufacturing like this. All factories that are going to open, we know when they are going to open because they’ve been built up for years. There is no extra capacity suddenly. At the very best, you can change a bit your line of production from one type of memory to another type. But that’s probably about it. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Just to be clear, all these transformations we’re seeing isn’t to say just hardware is back, right? It’s not just hardware. There’s physicality. The buildings are coming back, right? It’s full stack. Software is here. That’s why everything is happening. Policy is here. Finance is here. It’s a little bit like the name of the movie, right? Everything everywhere all at once. Everything’s happening. It was in some ways driven by the upper stacks, by the app layers, by the platform layers. But now we need new infrastructure. We need more infrastructure. We need it very, very quickly. We need it today. We’re already lacking in it. Semiconductors: compute is the new oil Maybe that’s a good segue into the first piece of the whole infrastructure thing that’s driving now the most valuable company in the world, NVIDIA, which is semiconductors. Semiconductors are driving compute. Semis are the foundation of infrastructure as a compute. Everyone needs it for every thing, for every activity, not just for compute, but even for sensors, for actuators, everything else. That’s the beginning of it all. Semiconductor is one of the key pieces around the infrastructure stack that’s being built at scale at this moment in time. Bertrand Schmitt Yes. What’s interesting is that if we look at the market gap of Semis versus software as a service, cloud companies, there has been a widening gap the past year. I forgot the exact numbers, but we were talking about plus 20, 25% for Semis in term of market gap and minus 5, minus 10 for SaaS companies. That’s another trend that’s happening. Why is this happening? One, because semiconductors are core to the AI build-up, you cannot go around without them. But two, it’s also raising a lot of questions about the durability of the SaaS, a software-as-a-service business model. Because if suddenly we have better AI, and that’s all everyone is talking about to justify the investment in AI, that it keeps getting better, and it keeps improving, and it’s going to replace your engineers, your software engineers. Then maybe all of this moat that software companies built up over the years or decades, sometimes, might unravel under the pressure of newly coded, newly built, cheaper alternatives built from the ground up with AI support. It’s not just that, yes, semiconductors are doing great. It’s also as a result of that AI underlying trend that software is doing worse right now. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro At the end of the day, this foundational piece of infrastructure, semiconductor, is obviously getting manifest to many things, fabrication, manufacturing, packaging, materials, equipment. Everything’s being driven, ASML, etc. There are all these different players around the world that are having skyrocket valuations now, it’s because they’re all part of the value chain. Just to be very, very clear, there’s two elements of this that I think are very important for us to remember at this point in time. One, it’s the entire value chains are being shifted. It’s not just the chips that basically lead to computing in the strict sense of it. It’s like chips, for example, that drive, for example, network switching. We’re going to talk about networking a bit, but you need chips to drive better network switching. That’s getting revolutionised as well. For example, we have an investment in that space, a company called the eridu.ai, and they’re revolutionising one of the pieces around that stack. Second part of the puzzle, so obviously, besides the holistic view of the world that’s changing in terms of value change, the second piece of the puzzle is, as we discussed before, there’s industrial policy. We already mentioned the CHIPS Act, which is something, for example, that has been done in the US, which I think is 52 billion in incentives across a variety of things, grants, loans, and other mechanisms to incentivise players to scale capacity quick and to scale capacity locally in the US. One of the effects of that now is obviously we had the TSMC, US expansion with a factory here in the US. We have other levels of expansion going on with Intel, Samsung, and others that are happening as we speak. Again, it’s this two by two. It’s market forces that drive the need for fundamental shifts in the value chain. On the other industrial policy and actual money put forward by states, by governments, by entities that want to revolutionise their own local markets. Bertrand Schmitt Yes. When you talk about networking, it makes me think about what NVIDIA did more than six years ago when they acquired Mellanox. At the time, it was largest acquisition for NVIDIA in 2019, and it was networking for the data center. Not networking across data center, but inside the data center, and basically making sure that your GPUs, the different computers, can talk as fast as possible between each of them. I think that’s one piece of the puzzle that a lot of companies are missing, by the way, about NVIDIA is that they are truly providing full systems. They are not just providing a GPU. Some of their competitors are just providing GPUs. But NVIDIA can provide you the full rack. Now, they move to liquid-cool computing as well. They design their systems with liquid cooling in mind. They have a very different approach in the industry. It’s a systematic system-level approach to how do you optimize your data center. Quite frankly, that’s a bit hard to beat. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro For those listening, you’d be like, this is all very different. Semiconductors, networking, energy, manufacturing, this is all different. Then all of a sudden, as Bertrand is saying, well, there are some players that are acting across the stack. Then you see in the same sentence, you’re talking about nuclear power in Microsoft or nuclear power in Google, and you’re like, what happened? Why are these guys in the same sentence? It’s like they’re tech companies. Why are they talking about energy? It’s the nature of that. These ecosystems need to go hand in hand. The value chains are very deep. For you to actually reap the benefits of more and more, for example, semiconductor availability, you have to have better and better networking connectivity, and you have to have more and more energy at lower and lower costs, and all of that. All these things are intrinsically linked. That’s why you see all these big tech companies working across stack, NVIDIA being a great example of that in trying to create truly a systems approach to the world, as Bertrand was mentioning. Networking & connectivity: digital highways get rebuilt On the networking and connectivity side, as we said, we had a lot of fibre that was put down, etc, but there’s still more build-out needs to be done. 5G in terms of its densification is still happening. We’re now starting to talk, obviously, about 6G. I’m not sure most telcos are very happy about that because they just have been doing all this CapEx and all this deployment into 5G, and now people already started talking about 6G and what’s next. Obviously, data center interconnect is quite important, and all the hubbing that needs to happen around data centers is very, very important. We are seeing a lot movements around connectivity that are particularly important. Network gear and the emergence of players like Broadcom in terms of the semiconductor side of the fence, obviously, Cisco, Juniper, Arista, and others that are very much present in this space. As I said, we made an investment on the semiconductor side of networking as well, realizing that there’s still a lot of bottlenecks happening there. But obviously, the networking and connectivity stack still needs to be built at all levels within the data centers, outside of the data centers in terms of last mile, across the board in terms of fibre. We’re seeing a lot of movements still around the space. It’s what connects everything. At the end of the day, if there’s too much latency in these systems, if the bandwidths are not high enough, then we’re going to have huge bottlenecks that are going to be put at the table by a networking providers. Obviously, that doesn’t help anyone. If there’s a button like anywhere, it doesn’t work. All of this doesn’t work. Bertrand Schmitt Yes. Interestingly enough, I know we said for this episode, we not talk too much about space, but when you talk about 6G, it make me think about, of course, Starlink. That’s really your last mile delivery that’s being built as well. It’s a massive investment. We’re talking about thousands of satellites that are interconnected between each other through laser system. This is changing dramatically how companies can operate, how individuals can operate. For companies, you can have great connectivity from anywhere in the world. For military, it’s the same. For individuals, suddenly, you won’t have dead space, wide zones. This is also a part of changing how we could do things. It’s quite important even in the development of AI because, yes, you can have AI at the edge, but that interconnect to the rest of the system is quite critical. Having that availability of a network link, high-quality network link from anywhere is a great combo. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Then you start seeing regions of the world that want to differentiate to attract digital nomads by saying, “We have submarine cables that come and hub through us, and therefore, our connectivity is amazing.” I was just in Madeira, and they were talking about that in Portugal. One of the islands of Portugal. We have some Marine cables. You have great connectivity. We’re getting into that discussion where people are like, I don’t care. I mean, I don’t know. I assume I have decent connectivity. People actually care about decent connectivity. This discussion is not just happening at corporate level, at enterprise level? Etc. Even consumers, even people that want to work remotely or be based somewhere else in the world. It’s like, This is important Where is there a great connectivity for me so that I can have access to the services I need? Etc. Everyone becomes aware of everything. We had a cloud flare mishap more recently that the CEO had to jump online and explain deeply, technically and deeply, what happened. Because we’re in their heads. If Cloudflare goes down, there’s a lot of websites that don’t work. All of this, I think, is now becoming du jour rather than just an afterthought. Maybe we’ll think about that in the future. Bertrand Schmitt Totally. I think your life is being changed for network connectivity, so life of individuals, companies. I mean, everything. Look at airlines and ships and cruise ships. Now is the advent of satellite connectivity. It’s dramatically changing our experience. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Indeed. Energy: rebuilding the power stack (not just renewables) Moving maybe to energy. We’ve talked about energy quite a bit in the past. Maybe we start with the one that we didn’t talk as much, although we did mention it, which was, let’s call it the fossil infrastructure, what’s happening around there. Everyone was saying, it’s all going to be renewables and green. We’ve had a shift of power, geopolitics. Honestly, I the writing was on the wall that we needed a lot more energy creation. It wasn’t either or. We needed other sources to be as efficient as possible. Obviously, we see a lot of work happening around there that many would have thought, Well, all this infrastructure doesn’t matter anymore. Now we’re seeing LNG terminals, pipelines, petrochemical capacity being pushed up, a lot of stuff happening around markets in terms of export, and not only around export, but also around overall distribution and increases and improvements so that there’s less leakage, distribution of energy, etc. In some ways, people say, it’s controversial, but it’s like we don’t have enough energy to spare. We’re already behind, so we need as much as we can. We need to figure out the way to really extract as much as we can from even natural resources, which In many people’s mind, it’s almost like blasphemous to talk about, but it is where we are. Obviously, there’s a lot of renaissance also happening on the fossil infrastructure basis, so to speak. Bertrand Schmitt Personally, I’m ecstatic that there is a renaissance going regarding what is called fossil infrastructure. Oil and gas, it’s critical to humanity well-being. You never had growth of countries without energy growth and nothing else can come close. Nuclear could come close, but it takes decades to deploy. I think it’s great. It’s great for developed economies so that they do better, they can expand faster. It’s great for third-world countries who have no realistic other choice. I really don’t know what happened the past 10, 15 years and why this was suddenly blasphemous. But I’m glad that, strangely, thanks to AI, we are back to a more rational mindset about energy and making sure we get efficient energy where we can. Obviously, nuclear is getting a second act. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro I know you would be. We’ve been talking about for a long time, and you’ve been talking about it in particular for a very long time. Bertrand Schmitt Yes, definitely. It’s been one area of interest of mine for 25 years. I don’t know. I’ve been shocked about what happened in Europe, that willingness destruction of energy infrastructure, especially in Germany. Just a few months ago, they keep destroying on live TV some nuclear station in perfect working condition and replacing them with coal. I’m not sure there is a better definition of insanity at this stage. It looks like it’s only the Germans going that hardcore for some reason, but at least the French have stopped their program of decommissioning. America, it seems to be doing the same, so it’s great. On top of it, there are new generations that could be put to use. The Chinese are building up a very large nuclear reactor program, more than 100 reactors in construction for the next 10 years. I think everybody has to catch up because at some point, this is the most efficient energy solution. Especially if you don’t build crazy constraints around the construction of these nuclear reactors. If we are rational about permits, about energy, about safety, there are great things we could be doing with nuclear. That might be one of the only solution if we want to be competitive, because when energy prices go down like crazy, like in China, they will do once they have reach delivery of their significant build-up of nuclear reactors, we better be ready to have similar options from a cost perspective. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro From the outside, at the very least, nuclear seems to be probably in the energy one of the areas that’s more being innovated at this moment in time. You have startups in the space, you have a lot really money going into it, not just your classic industrial development. That’s very exciting. Moving maybe to the carbonization and what’s happening. The CCUS, and for those who don’t know what it is, carbon capture, utilization, and storage. There’s a lot of stuff happening around that space. That’s the area that deals with the ability to capture CO₂ emissions from industrial sources and/or the atmosphere and preventing their release. There’s a lot of things happening in that space. There’s also a lot of things happening around hydrogen and geothermal and really creating the ability to storage or to store, rather, energy that then can be put back into the grids at the right time. There’s a lot of interesting pieces happening around this. There’s some startup movement in the space. It’s been a long time coming, the reuse of a lot of these industrial sources. Not sure it’s as much on the news as nuclear, and oil and gas, but certainly there’s a lot of exciting things happening there. Bertrand Schmitt I’m a bit more dubious here, but I think geothermal makes sense if it’s available at reasonable price. I don’t think hydrogen technology has proven its value. Concerning carbon capture, I’m not sure how much it’s really going to provide in terms of energy needs, but why not? Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Fuels niche, again, from the outside, we’re not energy experts, but certainly, there are movements in the space. We’ll see what’s happening. One area where there’s definitely a lot of movement is this notion of grid and storage. On the one hand, that transmission needs to be built out. It needs to be better. We’ve had issues of blackouts in the US. We’ve had issues of blackouts all around the world, almost. Portugal as well, for a significant part of the time. The ability to work around transmission lines, transformers, substations, the modernization of some of this infrastructure, and the move forward of it is pretty critical. But at the other end, there’s the edge. Then, on the edge, you have the ability to store. We should have, better mechanisms to store energy that are less leaky in terms of energy storage. Obviously, there’s a lot of movement around that. Some of it driven just by commercial stuff, like Tesla a lot with their storage stuff, etc. Some of it really driven at scale by energy players that have the interest that, for example, some of the storage starts happening closer to the consumption as well. But there’s a lot of exciting things happening in that space, and that is a transformative space. In some ways, the bottleneck of energy is also around transmission and then ultimately the access to energy by homes, by businesses, by industries, etc. Bertrand Schmitt I would say some of the blackout are truly man-made. If I pick on California, for instance. That’s the logical conclusion of the regulatory system in place in California. On one side, you limit price that energy supplier can sell. The utility company can sell, too. On the other side, you force them to decommission the most energy-efficient and least expensive energy source. That means you cap the revenues, you make the cost increase. What is the result? The result is you cannot invest anymore to support a grid and to support transmission. That’s 100% obvious. That’s what happened, at least in many places. The solution is stop crazy regulations that makes no economic sense whatsoever. Then, strangely enough, you can invest again in transmission, in maintenance, and all I love this stuff. Maybe another piece, if we pick in California, if you authorize building construction in areas where fires are easy, that’s also a very costly to support from utility perspective, because then you are creating more risk. You are forced buy the state to connect these new constructions to the grid. You have more maintenance. If it fails, you can create fire. If you create fire, you have to pay billions of fees. I just want to highlight that some of this is not a technological issue, is not per se an investment issue, but it’s simply the result of very bad regulations. I hope that some will learn, and some change will be made so that utilities can do their job better. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Then last, but not the least, on the energy side, energy is becoming more and more digitally defined in some ways. It’s like the analogy to networks that they’ve become more, and more software defined, where you have, at the edge is things like smart meters. There’s a lot of things you can do around the key elements of the business model, like dynamic pricing and other elements. Demand response, one of the areas that I invested in, I invest in a company called Omconnect that’s now merged with what used to be Google Nest. Where to deploy that ability to do demand response and also pass it to consumers so that consumers can reduce their consumption at times where is the least price effective or the less green or the less good for the energy companies to produce energy. We have other things that are happening, which are interesting. Obviously, we have a lot more electric vehicles in cars, etc. These are also elements of storage. They don’t look like elements of storage, but the car has electricity in it once you charge it. Once it’s charged, what do you do with it? Could you do something else? Like the whole reverse charging piece that we also see now today in mobile devices and other edge devices, so to speak. That also changes the architecture of what we’re seeing around the space. With AI, there’s a lot of elements that change around the value chain. The ability to do forecasting, the ability to have, for example, virtual power plans because of just designated storage out there, etc. Interesting times happening. Not sure all utilities around the world, all energy providers around the world are innovating at the same pace and in the same way. But certainly just looking at the industry and talking to a lot of players that are CEOs of some of these companies. That are leading innovation for some of these companies, there’s definitely a lot more happening now in the last few years than maybe over the last few decades. Very exciting times. Bertrand Schmitt I think there are two interesting points in what you say. Talking about EVs, for instance, a Cybertruck is able to send electricity back to your home if your home is able to receive electricity from that source. Usually, you have some changes to make to the meter system, to your panel. That’s one great way to potentially use your car battery. Another piece of the puzzle is that, strangely enough, most strangely enough, there has been a big push to EV, but at the same time, there has not been a push to provide more electricity. But if you replace cars that use gasoline by electric vehicles that use electricity, you need to deliver more electricity. It doesn’t require a PhD to get that. But, strangely enough, nothing was done. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Apparently, it does. Bertrand Schmitt I remember that study in France where they say that, if people were all to switch to EV, we will need 10 more nuclear reactors just on the way from Paris to Nice to the Côte d’Azur, the French Rivière, in order to provide electricity to the cars going there during the summer vacation. But I mean, guess what? No nuclear plant is being built along the way. Good luck charging your vehicles. I think that’s another limit that has been happening to the grid is more electric vehicles that require charging when the related infrastructure has not been upgraded to support more. Actually, it has quite the opposite. In many cases, we had situation of nuclear reactors closing down, so other facilities closing down. Obviously, the end result is an increase in price of electricity, at least in some states and countries that have not sold that fully out. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Manufacturing: the return of “atoms + bits” Moving to manufacturing and what’s happening around manufacturing, manufacturing technology. There’s maybe the case to be made that manufacturing is getting replatformed, right? It’s getting redefined. Some of it is very obvious, and it’s already been ongoing for a couple of decades, which is the advent of and more and more either robotic augmented factories or just fully roboticized factories, where there’s very little presence of human beings. There’s elements of that. There’s the element of software definition on top of it, like simulation. A lot of automation is going on. A lot of AI has been applied to some lines in terms of vision, safety. We have an investment in a company called Sauter Analytics that is very focused on that from the perspective of employees and when they’re still humans in the loop, so to speak, and the ability to really figure out when people are at risk and other elements of what’s happening occurring from that. But there’s more than that. There’s a little bit of a renaissance in and of itself. Factories are, initially, if we go back a couple of decades ago, factories were, and manufacturing was very much defined from the setup. Now it’s difficult to innovate, it’s difficult to shift the line, it’s difficult to change how things are done in the line. With the advent of new factories that have less legacy, that have more flexible systems, not only in terms of software, but also in terms of hardware and robotics, it allows us to, for example, change and shift lines much more easily to different functions, which will hopefully, over time, not only reduce dramatically the cost of production. But also increase dramatically the yield, it increases dramatically the production itself. A lot of cool stuff happening in that space. Bertrand Schmitt It’s exciting to see that. One thing this current administration in the US has been betting on is not just hoping for construction renaissance. Especially on the factory side, up of factories, but their mindset was two things. One, should I force more companies to build locally because it would be cheaper? Two, increase output and supply of energy so that running factories here in the US would be cheaper than anywhere else. Maybe not cheaper than China, but certainly we get is cheaper than Europe. But three, it’s also the belief that thanks to AI, we will be able to have more efficient factories. There is always that question, do Americans to still keep making clothes, for instance, in factories. That used to be the case maybe 50 years ago, but this move to China, this move to Bangladesh, this move to different places. That’s not the goal. But it can make sense that indeed there is ability, thanks to robots and AI, to have more automated factories, and these factories could be run more efficiently, and as a result, it would be priced-competitive, even if run in the US. When you want to think about it, that has been, for instance, the South Korean playbook. More automated factories, robotics, all of this, because that was the only way to compete against China, which has a near infinite or used to have a near infinite supply of cheaper labour. I think that all of this combined can make a lot of sense. In a way, it’s probably creating a perfect storm. Maybe another piece of the puzzle this administration has been working on pretty hard is simplifying all the permitting process. Because a big chunk of the problem is that if your permitting is very complex, very expensive, what take two years to build become four years, five years, 10 years. The investment mass is not the same in that situation. I think that’s a very important part of the puzzle. It’s use this opportunity to reduce regulatory state, make sure that things are more efficient. Also, things are less at risk of bribery and fraud because all these regulations, there might be ways around. I think it’s quite critical to really be careful about this. Maybe last piece of the puzzle is the way accounting works. There are new rules now in 2026 in the US where you can fully depreciate your CapEx much faster than before. That’s a big win for manufacturing in the US. Suddenly, you can depreciate much faster some of your CapEx investment in manufacturing. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Just going back to a point you made and then moving it forward, even China, with being now probably the country in the world with the highest rate of innovation and take up of industrial robots. Because of demographic issues a little bit what led Japan the first place to be one of the real big innovators around robots in general. The fact that demographics, you’re having an aging population, less and less children. How are you going to replace all these people? Moving that into big winners, who becomes a big winner in a space where manufacturing is fundamentally changing? Obviously, there’s the big four of robots, which is ABB, FANUC, KUKA, and Yaskawa. Epson, I think, is now in there, although it’s not considered one of the big four. Kawasaki, Denso, Universal Robots. There’s a really big robotics, industrial robotic companies in the space from different origins, FANUC and Yaskawa, and Epson from Japan, KUKA from Germany, ABB from Switzerland, Sweden. A lot of now emerging companies from China, and what’s happening in that space is quite interesting. On the other hand, also, other winners will include players that will be integrators that will build some of the rest of the infrastructure that goes into manufacturing, the Siemens of the world, the Schneider’s, the Rockwell’s that will lead to fundamental industrial automation. Some big winners in there that whose names are well known, so probably not a huge amount of surprises there. There’s movements. As I said, we’re still going to see the big Chinese players emerging in the world. There are startups that are innovating around a lot of the edges that are significant in this space. We’ll see if this is a space that will just be continued to be dominated by the big foreign robotics and by a couple of others and by the big integrators or not. Bertrand Schmitt I think you are right to remind about China because China has been moving very fast in robotics. Some Chinese companies are world-class in their use of robotics. You have this strange mix of some older industries where robotics might not be so much put to use and typically state-owned, versus some private companies, typically some tech companies that are reconverting into hardware in some situation. That went all in terms of robotics use and their demonstrations, an example of what’s happening in China. Definitely, the Chinese are not resting. Everyone smart enough is playing that game from the Americans, the Chinese, Japanese, the South Koreans. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Exciting things are manufacturing, and maybe to bring it all together, what does it mean for all the big players out there? If we talk with startups and talk about startups, we didn’t mention a ton of startups today, right? Maybe incumbent wind across the board. But on a more serious note, we did mention a few. For example, in nuclear energy, there’s a lot of startups that have been, some of them, incredibly well-funded at this moment in time. Wrap: what it means for startups, incumbents, and investors There might be some big disruptions that will come out of startups, for example, in that space. On the chipset side, we talked about the big gorillas, the NVIDIAs, AMDs, Intel, etc., of the world. But we didn’t quite talk about the fact that there’s a lot of innovation, again, happening on the edges with new players going after very large niches, be it in networking and switching. Be it in compute and other areas that will need different, more specialized solutions. Potentially in terms of compute or in terms of semiconductor deployments. I think there’s still some opportunities there, maybe not to be the winner takes all thing, but certainly around a lot of very significant niches that might grow very fast. Manufacturing, we mentioned the same. Some of the incumbents seem to be in the driving seat. We’ll see what happens if some startups will come in and take some of the momentum there, probably less likely. There are spaces where the value chains are very tightly built around the OEMs and then the suppliers overall, classically the tier one suppliers across value chains. Maybe there is some startup investment play. We certainly have played in the couple of the spaces. I mentioned already some of them today, but this is maybe where the incumbents have it all to lose. It’s more for them to lose rather than for the startups to win just because of the scale of what needs to be done and what needs to be deployed. Bertrand Schmitt I know. That’s interesting point. I think some players in energy production, for instance, are moving very fast and behaving not only like startups. Usually, it’s independent energy suppliers who are not kept by too much regulations that get moved faster. Utility companies, as we just discussed, have more constraints. I would like to say that if you take semiconductor space, there has been quite a lot of startup activities way more than usual, and there have been some incredible success. Just a few weeks ago, Rock got more or less acquired. Now, you have to play games. It’s not an outright acquisition, but $20 billion for an IP licensing agreement that’s close to an acquisition. That’s an incredible success for a company. Started maybe 10 years ago. You have another Cerebras, one of the competitor valued, I believe, quite a lot in similar range. I think there is definitely some activity. It’s definitely a different game compared to your software startup in terms of investment. But as we have seen with AI in general, the need for investment might be larger these days. Yes, it might be either traditional players if they can move fast enough, to be frank, because some of them, when you have decades of being run as a slow-moving company, it’s hard to change things. At the same time, it looks like VCs are getting bigger. Wall Street is getting more ready to finance some of these companies. I think there will be opportunities for startups, but definitely different types of startups in terms of profile. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Exactly. From an investor standpoint, I think on the VC side, at least our core belief is that it’s more niche. It’s more around big niches that need to be fundamentally disrupted or solutions that require fundamental interoperability and integration where the incumbents have no motivation to do it. Things that are a little bit more either packaging on the semiconductor side or other elements of actual interoperability. Even at the software layer side that feeds into infrastructure. If you’re a growth investor, a private equity investor, there’s other plays that are available to you. A lot of these projects need to be funded and need to be scaled. Now we’re seeing projects being funded even for a very large, we mentioned it in one of the previous episodes, for a very large tech companies. When Meta, for example, is going to the market to get funding for data centers, etc. There’s projects to be funded there because just the quantum and scale of some of these projects, either because of financial interest for specifically the tech companies or for other reasons, but they need to be funded by the market. There’s other place right now, certainly if you’re a larger private equity growth investor, and you want to come into the market and do projects. Even public-private financing is now available for a lot of things. Definitely, there’s a lot of things emanating that require a lot of funding, even for large-scale projects. Which means the advent of some of these projects and where realization is hopefully more of a given than in other circumstances, because there’s actual commercial capital behind it and private capital behind it to fuel it as well, not just industrial policy and money from governments. Bertrand Schmitt There was this quite incredible stat. I guess everyone heard about that incredible growth in GDP in Q3 in the US at 4.4%. Apparently, half of that growth, so around 2.2% point, has been coming from AI and related infrastructure investment. That’s pretty massive. Half of your GDP growth coming from something that was not there three years ago or there, but not at this intensity of investment. That’s the numbers we are talking about. I’m hearing that there is a good chance that in 2026, we’re talking about five, even potentially 6% GDP growth. Again, half of it potentially coming from AI and all the related infrastructure growth that’s coming with AI. As a conclusion for this episode on infrastructure, as we just said, it’s not just AI, it’s a whole stack, and it’s manufacturing in general as well. Definitely in the US, in China, there is a lot going on. As we have seen, computing needs connectivity, networks, need power, energy and grid, and all of this needs production capacity and manufacturing. Manufacturing can benefit from AI as well. That way the loop is fully going back on itself. Infrastructure is the next big thing. It’s an opportunity, probably more for incumbents, but certainly, as usual, with such big growth opportunities for startups as well. Thank you, Nuno. Nuno Gonçalves Pedro Thank you, Bertrand.
Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti analyze a stronger-than-expected January jobs report that showed 130,000 new jobs added and unemployment falling to 4.3%. With wage growth running hot and GDP trending above potential, the discussion turns to whether the Federal Reserve may need to hold rates higher for longer — or even consider future hikes if labor market strength continues. Luke Kawa of Sherwood News also joined the show to explore rising investor anxiety around artificial intelligence, including whether AI could disrupt software, finance, and knowledge-based industries faster than markets expect. Later in the hour, the hosts discuss mounting federal deficits, growing consumer credit balances, and the long-term risks tied to persistent government borrowing.
Jeffrey Small explains that a resilient labor market and strong GDP forecasts are challenging the case for near-term rate cuts. While high valuations sparked recent volatility in stocks like Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA), Small views the massive Mag 7 AI CapEx as a long-term investment cycle similar to Amazon's (AMZN) early days. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
In this episode of The Independent, Paul Johnson is joined by economist Elliott Pollack and columnist Bob Robb for a conversation about where the U.S. economy is headed — and what could derail it.The panel breaks down Trump's Federal Reserve appointment, the importance of Fed independence, and whether interest rate cuts are coming sooner than expected. They explore why the stock market may be overvalued, how AI is reshaping productivity and GDP, and why housing affordability may not improve anytime soon.They also tackle the growing uncertainty caused by tariffs, the Supreme Court's looming decision on presidential tariff authority, and how instability is impacting business confidence, investment, and job growth.Beyond economics, the discussion expands into:Trump's strained relationships with allies like CanadaThe future of global trade and middle-power alliancesElection integrity, federal overreach, and political distractionsThe rise of the Arizona Independent Party and the legal battle challenging America's political duopoly
Valószínűleg hallgatóink is találkoztak az elmúlt hetekben azokkal, a közösségi médiában megjelent grafikonokkal, amik azt sugallják, hogy az uniós támogatások és a magyar gazdaság teljesítménye kéz a kézben jár. A leegyszerűsített üzenet szerint: ha „jön az EU-pénz”, nő a GDP, ha pedig „elzárják a csapot”, akkor megáll a növekedés vagy visszaesés jön. Csakhogy a kép ennél bonyolultabb: sok múlik azon, hogy a források mikor és milyen módon jutnak el a gazdaságba, és hogyan használják fel őket. Emiatt az EU-támogatások és a gazdasági növekedés között nem mindig van egyértelmű, automatikus kapcsolat. Műsorunk első részében erről beszélgetünk Szabó Dániellel, lapunk makrogazdasági elemzőjével. A folytatásban arról lesz szó, hogy civil és szakmai szervezetek egy közös javaslatcsomagot tettek le az asztalra Lakhatási Minimum 2026 címmel. A csomag üzenete egyértelmű: a lakhatási válság nem néhány szerencsétlen helyzetbe került ember gondja, hanem sokak számára mindennapi bizonytalanság, amire nem ad elég választ néhány gyors, eseti beavatkozás. A témáról Kovács Verát, az Utcáról Lakásba! Egyesület alapító tagját kérdezzük. Főbb részek: Intro – (00:00) Brüsszeli pénzek, magyar GDP – (02:01) Lakhatási minimum 2026 – (16:30) Kép forrása: Getty ImagesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Aaron McIntire recaps a week where the White House ramps up economic messaging, with President Trump forecasting explosive GDP growth under his anticipated Federal Reserve pick and Secretary Doug Burgum highlighting falling energy prices and broad prosperity gains. A fresh Gallup poll shows Americans growing more optimistic about economic growth and the stock market in the coming months. CBS reports on ICE arrests spark debate, but the data excludes key non-violent crimes like drug trafficking and other vile crimes. Another potential government shutdown looms over DHS funding, with Sen. John Fetterman admitting confusion over his party's priorities. Plus, viewership success for the TP USA alternative halftime show, the New York Times walking back marijuana legalization support, and Catherine Herridge detailing CBS suppression of Hunter Biden laptop stories. A.M. Update, Aaron McIntire, Trump economy, GDP growth, mass deportations, ICE arrests, government shutdown, Hunter Biden laptop, election interference, Andy Beshear, Bakari Sellers, Wajahat Ali, Gallup poll, TP USA halftime, conservative news, daily update
At January's World Economic Forum in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney argued that the old world order is not coming back. He went on to say that we are now in an era of great power rivalry, and that middle powers, like Canada, should come together to counter the rise of great powers. So what could the new order look like, and just how much influence can middle powers wield compared to the U.S. and China? They may be smaller by GDP standards but they are not without importance geopolitically. In this episode of Talking Geopolitics, host Christian Smith is joined by GPF Chairman George Friedman to discuss it all, to examine why the U.S. and Canada can't just decouple from one another, and what will happen to Cuba now that it has reached a tipping point in its economy and its defense. Visit www.geopoliticalfutures.com for world-class geopolitical analysis and discussion and to access our full 2026 Forecast: Re-anchoring the World.
In this week's episode of China Insider, Miles Yu covers the recent video call held between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to strengthen Beijing-Moscow ties and examines the current state of bilateral relations. Next, Miles provides analysis of China's evolving clean energy sector and the importance of the EV market and other clean technologies to China's GDP growth and economic trajectory. Finally, Miles reviews China's increasing domestic economic struggles, as efforts to address rising youth unemployment and the lingering affordability crisis continue to fall short, and what this might mean for the Chinese economy in 2026.China Insider is a weekly podcast project from Hudson Institute's China Center, hosted by China Center Director and Senior Fellow, Dr. Miles Yu, who provides weekly news that mainstream American outlets often miss, as well as in-depth commentary and analysis on the China challenge and the free world's future.
Nick & Dan do a comprehensive deep dive on Alberta's real estate market, part of "The Canadian Re Tour" podcast mini-series. We covers Alberta's economic fundamentals, major cities (Calgary and Edmonton), and mid-sized markets, with detailed data on home prices, rents, vacancy rates, and cap rates as of December 2025. Alberta has Canada's highest GDP per capita at ~$96,544, strong wages, and no rent control, making it attractive for cashflow-focused real estate investors. Calgary ($615,986 avg price) is more expensive and corporate-focused with 102 head offices, while Edmonton ($454,981 avg price) remains Canada's most affordable major citywith stable government employment. Vacancy rates have risen significantly in 2025—Calgary approaching 6%and Edmonton at 3.8%—due to a record 20,000 rental unit starts, helping stabilize the market after an extremely tight 2023. Try it NordVPN risk-free now with a 30-day money-back guarantee! Use our code "realestate" to get 4 extras months from a 2 years plan Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) | BMO Global Asset Management VANCOUVER MULTIPLEX EVENT TICKETS LISTEN AD FREE Realist.caSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
In today's episode, Tyler takes a deep dive into the market's ongoing strength, despite mixed headlines and bearish sentiment. The conversation covers the broadening effect fueling all-time highs across sectors and international markets, the latest updates on GDP growth, and strong moves from the homebuilders. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Our Chief LatAm Equity Strategist Nikolaj Lippmann discusses why Latin America may be approaching a rare “Spring” moment – where geopolitics, peaking rates, and elections set the scene for an investment-led growth cycle with meaningful market upside.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Nikolaj Lippmann: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Nikolaj Lippmann, Morgan Stanley's Chief Latin America Equity Strategist. If you ever felt like Latin America is too complicated to follow, today's episode is for you. It's Monday, February 9th at 10am in New York. The big idea in our research is simple. Latin America is facing a trifecta of change that could set up a very different investment story from what investors have gotten used to. We could be moving towards an investment or CapEx cycle in the shadow of the global AI CapEx cycle, and this is a stark departure from prior consumer cycles in Latin America. Latin America's GDP today is about $6 trillion. Yet Latin American equities account for just about 80 basis points of the main global index MSCI All Country World Equity benchmark. In plain English, it's really easy for investors to overlook such a vast region. But the narrative seems to be changing thanks to three key factors. Number one, shifting geopolitics in this increasingly global multipolar world. We can see this with trade rules, security priorities, supply chains that are getting rewritten. Capital and investment will often move alongside with these changing rules. Clearly, as we can all see U.S. priorities in Latin America have shifted, and with them have local priorities and incentives. Second, interest rates may very well have been peaking and could decline into [20]26. When borrowing cost fall, it just becomes easier to fund factories, infrastructure, AI, and expansion into all kinds of different investment, which become more feasible. What is more, we see a big shift in the size and growth of domestic capital markets in almost every country in Latin America – something that happens courtesy of reform and is certainly new versus prior cycles. And finally, elections that could lead to an important policy shift across Latin America. We see signs of movement towards greater fiscal responsibility in many sites of the region, with upcoming elections in Colombia and Brazil. We have already seen new policy makers in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, depart from prior populism. So, when we put all this together -- geopolitics, rates and local election -- you get to the core of our thesis, a possible LatAm spring; meaning a decisive break from the status quo towards fiscal consolidation, monetary easing, and structural reform. And we think that that could be a potential move that restores some confidence and attracts private capital. In our spring scenario, we see interest rates coming down, not rising in a scenario of higher growth to 6 percent in Brazil and Mexico, 7 percent in Argentina, and just 4 percent in Chile. This helps the rerating of the region. There's another powerful factor that I think many investors overlook, and that is a key difference versus prior cycles, as already mentioned. And that's the domestic savings. Local portfolios today are much bigger, much deeper capital markets, and they're heavily skewed towards fixed income. 75 percent of Latin American portfolios are in fixed income versus 25 percent in equity. In Brazil, the number's even higher with 90 to 95 percent in fixed income. If this shifts even halfway towards equity, it can deepen and support local capital markets; it supports valuation. For the region as a whole, sectors most impacted by this transformation would be Financial Services, Energy, Utilities, IT and Healthcare. Up until now, I think Latin America has been viewed as a region where a lot could go wrong. We asked the reverse question. What could go right? If the trifecta lines up: geopolitics, peaking rates and elections that enable a more investment friendly policy and CapEx cycle, Latin America could shift from being seen mainly as a supply of commodities and labor to far more investment driven engine of growth. That's why investors should put Latin America on the radar now and not wait until spring is already in full bloom. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
In a world that feels increasingly polarized, we explore how to use your capital as a tool for change without losing your mind or your net worth in the process. We dive into the practicalities of "voting with your dollars," acknowledging that while consumer spending drives nearly 70% of the U.S. GDP, achieving total moral purity in a global economy is nearly impossible. We share our personal guardrails for boycotting, the "one more place" rule, and why we prioritize progress over perfection when it comes to where we bank, shop, and invest. Whether you are navigating the nuances of ESG funds or just trying to find a local alternative for household essentials, we help you align your outflows with your values while keeping your financial goals on track.Get the full show notes, show references, and more information here: https://www.insideoutmoney.org/149-voting-with-your-dollars-practical-ways-to-align-your-spending-with-your-values/
Show Notes - Episode 143Recorded: 3 February 2026Released: 8 February 2026Episode DescriptionJack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack tackle the RBA's surprise interest rate hike, the coalition's post-election implosion, and dive deep into the Epstein files fallout. From Gaza peace plans to Japanese economic roller coasters, plus Carlton's dodgy pre-season training—it's all here.Timestamps & Topics00:25 - Welcome & RBA Breaking NewsThe Reserve Bank hikes interest rates by 0.25 percentage points as predicted, with markets forecasting two more increases this year in response to 3.8% inflation.01:29 - Interest Rates: The Blunt InstrumentDiscussing government spending as the inflation driver and the uneven effects of rate hikes on mortgage holders versus savers.03:35 - Trump vs The FedHow the US Federal Reserve dropped rates under pressure from Trump despite similar inflation to Australia, and the risks of economic overheating.05:22 - Blame the Barmy Army?A tongue-in-cheek theory from KO: Did England's cricket supporters spending during the Ashes tour drive up inflation to 3.8%?06:49 - Cocaine EconomicsAustralia's most expensive drugs in the world, Rugby World Cup memories, and why Western Australia pays double.08:38 - Coalition Chaos: Nationals Hold OnDavid Littleproud's leadership survives as spill motion fails, but Andrew Hastie drops out of Liberal leadership race.09:33 - The Oxford ConnectionAngus Taylor, Tony Abbott, and Australia's history of Oxford-educated prime ministers—from Gorton to Turnbull.10:09 - Angus Taylor's Shadow Treasurer StrugglesTroy Bramston's scathing assessment of Taylor's poor performance and lost economic credibility for the Coalition.11:37 - Coalition Split ContinuesLittleproud rejects reconciliation attempts while Sussan Ley remains Liberal leader, with potential "none-of-the-above" candidates waiting in the wings.12:13 - Listener Ray on Electoral MathThe great compulsory preferential voting debate: why the Nationals win 15 seats on 3% of first preferences while Greens get one seat on 12%.14:26 - Anthony Green's PatienceThe legendary election analyst educates Twitter on how Labor would have won 85 seats under first-past-the-post voting.15:26 - One Nation's Coalition TargetsAnthony Green's analysis reveals 20 Liberal and National seats at risk from One Nation, with only five Labor seats vulnerable.17:27 - Could One Nation Replace the Nationals?Exploring the possibility of a major conservative realignment, with potential Nationals MPs considering defection.19:35 - What Do the Nationals Stand For?From "agrarian socialists" to today's identity crisis—the party that used to represent farmers now struggles to define its purpose.21:05 - Anti-Semitic Abuse at Sydney UniversityFormer staff member Rose Nakard faces court on stalking and intimidation charges for allegedly calling Jewish students "fucking filthy Zionists" and "parasites."24:45 - Community Response Over LegislationWhy community rejection of hate speech matters more than criminalising phrases like "globalise the intifada," and the problems with new laws affecting police discretion.27:21 - $25 Billion Hospital and NDIS DealAlbanese and state premiers sign massive health funding package while agreeing to limit NDIS growth to 6% or less.28:21 - Autism and the NDIS DebateMoving mild forms of autism out of NDIS into schools—sensible reform or cost-shifting? Only 23% of NDIS costs despite larger recipient numbers.29:38 - The NDIS Needs a Medicare-Style RethinkComparing the transition from Medibank to Medicare: why the NDIS needs root-and-branch reform, not just tinkering.31:03 - Chronic Illness Left OutPeople with ME, CFS, MS, and fibromyalgia struggle to access NDIS support while other areas may be over-serviced.33:26 - Spain's Migrant AmnestySpain grants legal status to 500,000 undocumented migrants—stark contrast to anti-immigration sentiment across Europe.35:48 - Epstein Files: 3 Million PagesTwo million documents missing, Kevin Rudd brushes off Epstein's name-dropping, and Peter Mandelson's career implodes.36:36 - What Was Epstein's Business?Unpacking the mystery: Victoria's Secret rip-off, half-billion-dollar investment clients, and the missing financial footprint.38:22 - Mandelson in His UnderpantsThe former UK ambassador to the US photographed with young woman, now "unemployable"—very odd for a gay man.39:22 - Chomsky, Woody Allen, and Strange Dinner PartiesThe inexplicable nature of intellectuals dining with Epstein, and Brett Ratner's creepy Epstein photos despite #MeToo allegations.42:33 - Clintons Agree to TestifyBill Clinton offers four-hour congressional interview, Hillary to make sworn statement about Epstein connections.43:28 - Andrew and Mandelson Under PressurePrince Andrew pushed to testify while Mandelson faces questions about unexplained £75K payments and acting as Epstein's lobbyist while a cabinet minister.46:15 - Put Your Pants On for PhotosWhy do old blokes keep getting photographed in their underwear with Epstein? A plea for sartorial sense.48:13 - Board of Peace: Trump's $1 Billion ClubExplaining Trump's confusing Gaza oversight initiative: permanent seats cost US$1 billion paid into Trump-managed accounts, not US Treasury.50:35 - Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the StansThe "very nice countries" signing onto the Board of Peace, while Europe says no en masse and Canada gets uninvited after Carney's tariff speech.51:56 - UAE Taking Control of GazaMore important than the Board of Peace: United Arab Emirates moving to run Gaza's civilian administration with Israeli and US backing.52:24 - Spain's 500,000 Migrant AmnestySouthern European states bearing the brunt of arrivals while finding their own solutions—Italy's Albania processing reduces numbers by 60%.53:50 - France's Budget Finally PassesAfter four months of deadlock, Macron's government gets budget through with no-confidence motions failing, bringing rare stability.54:42 - Global Energy Prices: Ireland Tops the ListHousehold electricity costs compared: Ireland, Italy, and Belgium most expensive in Europe; Russia at just 7 cents per kilowatt hour versus Australia's 26 cents.56:31 - Canadian Energy: 12 Cents Per Kilowatt HourMark Carney's priority to reduce energy costs in Canada, currently lower than the US at 12.5 cents.57:50 - European GDP: Tepid GrowthGermany, UK, and France stuck around 1-1.5% growth, with Spain and Portugal outperforming at 2.5%, while Russia posts 4% driven entirely by military spending.59:59 - Russia's War Economy TrapWith 2% unemployment, 8% inflation, and 20% interest rates, Russia's 4% GDP growth masks an economy with "nothing to go for it" without the war.01:02:19 - Why Would Russia End the War?No economic incentive to stop fighting when military spending drives the economy and ending the war means economic collapse and regime change risk.01:04:22 - European Army TalkGermany and France push controversial European army concept alongside NATO—bad idea with chain of command issues, likely won't happen.01:07:38 - Japan's Liz Truss MomentPM Takeichi's tax and spending pledges spook markets: ¥5 trillion revenue shortfall, £137 billion stimulus, cash handouts, and approval ratings sliding from 75% to 58%.01:10:23 - Chagos Islands: The Deal That Won't DieBritish Indian Ocean Territory dispute: Diego Garcia military base, Mauritius sovereignty claims, and why the US and Australia oppose the UK deal.01:13:48 - France's Immigration RhetoricMarine Le Pen's inflammatory language about asylum seekers, and why "remigration" policies face huge practical and legal obstacles.01:16:28 - London Murder Prosecutions at 13-Year LowOnly 39% of murders result in charges as London's crime crisis deepens, despite accusations of two-tier policing favouring establishment figures.01:19:23 - Melania: The MovieBrett Ratner's documentary earns $8 million in the US against $40 million production costs—but it's about access to Trump, not profit.01:22:38 - Australian Open: Record NumbersWomen's final delivers 3.8 million viewers (up 30% from 2024), total tournament audience up 9.3% to 14.3 million, cementing status as global sporting event.01:26:39 - Usman Tariq's Unusual ActionPakistani spinner's legal but confounding bowling: shuffle-shuffle-stop-bowl delivery frustrates Cameron Green and raises eyebrows.01:28:58 - Should Steve Smith Play T20?Mark Waugh says yes—36-year-old leg-spinner/batsman is Australia's best player. Missing Tim David as Pakistan dominates the series.01:31:24 - Carlton's Training Video DisasterDropped marks and out-of-bounds kicks in pre-season footage—but fans' hope springs eternal until about May.01:32:07 - King Street Chair-Throwing MemeBloke throws chair at bouncers, accidentally knocks out his mate instead. Victorian government announces "toughest chair laws in Australia." Stand up, Victoria.
Mark Yusko returns with his highly anticipated "Around the World: 10 Surprises for 2026," opening with a Top‑Gun‑worthy flyby through the global macro landscape before diving straight into the turbulence ahead. He breaks down the forces that could define the year: the K‑shaped economy, AI's outsized impact on GDP, the global debt bomb, the unraveling yen carry trade, Europe's political tightrope, China's long‑game positioning, and the next phase of Bitcoin's four‑year cycle. Mark explains why the risks everyone obsesses over often aren't the ones that matter, and where real opportunity tends to emerge when liquidity, psychology, and policy collide. As Viper reminds us, "A good pilot evaluates what's happened… so he can apply what he's learned." Want more? Watch the "Around The World With Yusko" webinar series live by contacting us at ir@morgancreekcap.com. Watch it after the fact at https://www.morgancreekcap.com/market-commentary/#investment-themes. Visit us on the web at https://www.morgancreekcap.com. Legal Disclaimer This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or as a solicitation for the sale of any security or any advisory or other service. Investments related to the themes and ideas discussed may be owned by funds managed by the host and podcast guests. Any conflicts mentioned by the host are subject to change. Listeners should consult their personal financial advisors before making any investment decisions.
The digital economy now accounts for 17 percent of global GDP and is worth over $20 trillion, according to a new report by the International Data Centre Authority (IDCA). But growth has been uneven across the world, with more than 1 billion people having poor access to electricity. IDCA's CEO Mehdi Paryavi tells FRANCE 24 that poorer nations can develop digital economies that can empower those nations and improve energy access and education.
The Nikkei 225 index in Tokyo, which tracks the performance of Japan's largest companies, hit a new record on Monday after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured a two-thirds majority in the lower house over the weekend. Takaichi ran on an ambitious big-spending agenda, welcomed by investors, although concerns over the country's debt load –around 230% of GDP – are likely to persist.
The world economy appears to be in good shape. Global composite purchasing managers index numbers are on the rise, with US manufacturing enjoying a significant uptick in January, and Germany's factory orders have risen strongly too. All in all, says Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, Investec Wealth & Investment International, the numbers support expectations of global GDP growth of 3% this year. Investec Focus Radio SA
☆歡迎大家按讚、訂閱、開啟小鈴鐺☆
John Chang breaks down the economic trends set to define 2026 from tepid job growth, declining population growth, and geopolitical uncertainty to the surprising resilience of certain real estate sectors. Discover why AI investments, despite fueling GDP growth, aren't creating jobs, and what that means for commercial real estate demand. Book your free demo today at bill.com/bestever and get a $100 Amazon gift card. Visit www.tribevestisc.com for more info. Try QUO for free PLUS get 20% off your first 6 months when you go to quo.com/BESTEVER Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/ Join the Best Ever Community The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria. Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at www.bestevercommunity.com Podcast production done by Outlier Audio Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
© 2020-2026 Ivy Podcast Discovery LLC
