Podcasts about gdp

On Monday's Mark Levin Show, open borders, radicalized college campuses, and biased media drive cultural decay in the U.S. Unvetted immigration from conflict zones, homegrown terrorism fueled by media misrepresentation, and Marxist indoctrination in universities are key issues. A Marxist allegedly killed two people in D.C. weeks ago and now an Egyptian illegal immigrant allegedly tried to kill people protesting Hamas in Boulder, Colorado, with Molotov cocktails. Biden's policies worsened these problems, and outlets like CNN and the New York Times spread Hamas propaganda, such as false claims of Israeli attacks. Later, colleges and universities have been destroyed by Islamists, Marxists, and foreign influences like Qatar, Iran, and Hamas, with Jews being targeted in a manner reminiscent of the 1930s. These groups, supported by the Democrat Party, media, and courts, are anti-American and aim to collapse the system. Also, President Trump forcefully posted about Iran – “The AUTOPEN should have stopped Iran a long time ago from “enriching.” Under our potential Agreement — WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANY ENRICHMENT OF URANIUM!” He may have posted this as a response to leakers claiming there's a deal that allows Iran to enrich uranium. These leaks might come from the fifth column isolationists or Iranian sympathizers within the administration aiming to undermine Trump.  Afterward, the United States is among the most religiously tolerant nations, with the Constitution ensuring freedoms for all, regardless of beliefs. Faith acts as a moral foundation, moderating behavior and fostering societal civility, even influencing non-believers through surrounding values. Christianity does not seek political control, in contrast to political Islam, which aims for centralized authority over society and government. Without an enlightenment embracing individual liberty, Islam's dominant establishment often supports Islamism, which clashes with Western values.  Importing such ideologies into the U.S. may lead to resistance against assimilation, as seen in parts of Europe and emerging in America.  In Addition, George Washington University's Program on Extremism details how Hamas established early ties with Iran through meetings led by Mousa Abu Marzook, a key Hamas figure, while he was a student in the U.S. in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Marzook, who later became Deputy Chief of Hamas's Political Bureau, orchestrated these connections from American soil. These ties, formalized during a 1991 Tehran meeting, laid the groundwork for Iran's long-term backing of Hamas, including advanced knowledge of Hamas's October 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Can you imagine what's going on today? Finally, Steve Moore calls in and highlights the economy's strong performance in the second quarter, citing a Federal Reserve estimate of 4.6% GDP growth, a significant rebound from the negative 0.2% in the first quarter under Biden. He notes low inflation at under 2.5%, compared to Biden's average of 6%, and emphasizes rising personal income and consumer spending. Moore credits these improvements to the early days of Trump's presidency, countering media predictions of economic collapse. He also stresses the urgency of making Trump's tax cuts permanent to avoid a historic tax increase, which Moore says would cost the average family $2,500 annually. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

From the BBC World Service: Britain will boost its nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet to move to a state of "warfighting readiness,” as Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to set a precise date for when UK defense spending would hit 3% of GDP.

From the BBC World Service: Britain will boost its nuclear-powered attack submarine fleet to move to a state of "warfighting readiness,” as Prime Minister Keir Starmer declined to set a precise date for when UK defense spending would hit 3% of GDP.

2025. június 02., hétfő 6.30-8 óra NÉVNAPOK, ESEMÉNYEK, HÍRES SZÜLETÉSNAPOSOK. LAPSZEMLE és TŐZSDEI HELYZETKÉP. BUDAPEST, TE CSODÁS: Hírek a fővárosból és környékéről Rendkívüli ülés a fővárosban; Júniustól árat emel a BKK; Megjelent a rendelettervezet, kiemelt beruházássá nyilvánítják Rákosrendezőt. ÉBRESZTŐ TÉMA: Melyik országban, mennyit kell fizetni a lakáshitelekért? Magyarországon egy átlagos 20 millió Ft-os lakáshitelért (20 éves átlagos futamidővel) 5,7 millió Ft-tal többet fog visszafizetni a hitelfelvevő mint a környező országokban? De miért van ez így? A bankok mohók, vagy a piaci kamatszint magasabb nálunk? Miért fizetünk milliókkal többet a lakáshitelért, mint a környező országokban? Sándorfi Balázs, a Bankmonitor.hu alapító-ügyvezetője. HETI KITEKINTŐ: Mi baj az idei magyar GDP-vel? A KSH kedden teszi közzé az első negyedéves részletes GDP adatokat. Emlékeztetőül: az előzetes adatközlés szerint év/év alapon stagnált, negyedév/negyedév alapon pedig 0,2%-kal csökkent a magyar gazdaság az első negyedévben. A közzétett előzetes adat egyébként jelentős negatív meglepetést okozott a piaci elemzők körében. Eppich Győző, az OTP Elemzési Központ elemzője.

We're back in Spain, and I've got questions. Why is Spain growing faster than Germany, France, and even the US? Why can they build high-speed rail for a fraction of the cost, and why are they the only major EU country where immigration is boosting GDP without blowing up politics?This week, we talk to Professor Joe Haslam in Madrid about what's being called Europe's miracle economy. Since COVID, Spain's growth has outpaced every major European economy, driven by smart immigration (nearly 1 million working Latin Americans), a tourism boom (especially in the cooling north), and €160 billion in EU funds that they've actually used. But it's not all cerveza and sunshine. Spain's power grid recently collapsed for nine hours, revealing the fragility of the green energy transition. Despite the boom, Spain's productivity and housing market are heading the wrong way. Public servants now outnumber private sector workers, and even El Guapo himself, PM Pedro Sánchez, is afraid to touch buy-to-lets. We also dig into what Spain's infrastructure success says about Ireland's failure. Is it Napoleon vs. Wellington all over again? Because if you inherited the Napoleonic state, like Spain did, you can build metros, fast trains, and affordable housing. If you inherited British common law? You get planning objections and overpriced shoeboxes in Drimnagh. Join the gang! https://plus.acast.com/s/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Oakland County's economic growth and inclusive policies take center stage in this Daily Detroit episode that's a conversation with County Executive Dave Coulter. We examine the strategies behind Oakland's robust economy and its commitment to diversity as a driver of progress.  Coulter details the "Oakland 80" initiative, a program focused on increasing educational attainment among adult residents to meet workforce demands. The conversation covers the county's efforts to address transportation challenges through expanded mass transit and its novel approaches to tackling systemic issues such as medical and student debt, aiming to financially empower residents. We get into the diversity of living options in the county, where you can have just about everything you'd want depending on which corner you decide to live in. We also get into Oakland County's innovative affordable housing programs and Coulter's dedication to the revitalization of downtown Pontiac. Oakland County is 1.4 million people and a quarter of Michigan's GDP - and I learned a lot about how Executive Coulter looks at things and why this corner of Michigan is so successful. Follow Daily Detroit on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/daily-detroit/id1220563942  Or sign up for our newsletter: https://www.dailydetroit.com/newsletter/  

The markets are acting... well, bipolar. One day it's peace talks, the next it's tariff war all over again. In this episode of "Bipolar Markets," we break down the sudden swing in investor sentiment as the U.S.-China trade tensions reheat

Nvidia and Salesforce results late yesterday remain factors along with a slew of retail earnings today, including Best Buy and Costco. GDP and jobless claims are data highlights.Important DisclosuresThe information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Supporting documentation for any claims or statistical information is available upon request.Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.Diversification strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.(0131-0525)

This week we talk about greenhouse gases, renewable energy capacity, and China's economy.We also discuss coal power plants, natural gas, and gigatons.Recommended Book: What If We Get It Right? by Ayana Elizabeth JohnsonTranscriptIn 2024, global CO2 emissions hit a new all-time high of 37.8 gigatons, that figure including emissions from industrial processes, oil well flaring, and the combustion of fuel, like petroleum in a vehicle.And for context, a gigaton is one billion metric tons, which is about 2.2 trillion pounds. A single gigaton is about the weight of 10,000 fully equipped aircraft carriers, it's about twice the mass of all human beings on the planet, and it's approximately the same mass of all non-human land-mammals on earth.That's one gigaton, and global CO2 emissions last year hit 37.8 gigatons; so quite a lot of carbon dioxide headed into the atmosphere, every year, these days.That's up about .8% from 2023 levels, and it resulted in an atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 422.5 parts per million, which is around 3 ppm higher than 2023, and 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. And again, for context, if we don't want to experience global average temperature increases, more extreme weather, and disrupted water cycles, the general consensus is that we want to keep atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 350 ppm, and we're currently at 422.5 ppm.That said, while emissions grew last year, mostly because fuel combustion increased by around 1%, which overshadowed the decrease in industrial process emissions, which was down 2.3% for the year, emissions growth in 2024 was less than GDP growth; and that's important because for a long time it was assumed that in order to grow global wealth, according to that metric for wealth, at least, more fossil fuels would need to be burned, because that was the pattern for a long time, industrial revolution, onward.Beginning in the early 2000s, though, GDP growth and emissions growth diverged, and that decoupling has become more prominent as many wealthy nations, including the US, have upped the efficiency of many previously energy-hogging aspects of their economies—things like appliances and the aforementioned industrial processes—while also shifting a lot of energy generation away from massively polluting fuels like coal and oil, over to less-polluting fuels like gas, and non-polluting sources like solar and wind, and in some cases nuclear, as well.This relationship varies significantly from country to country, and the benefits are mostly being seen in so-called advanced economies right now, as many poorer nations are still seeing increased emissions from more polluting power sources, generating electricity, and the growth in wealth leading to more people buying cars and scooters, many of which run on dirty fuels.In the US, though, GDP has doubled since 1990, but CO2 emissions have dropped back down to around 1990 levels.Which to be clear is still a whole lot, as Americans consume a lot of stuff and use a lot of energy, and there are a lot of people living in the US using all that energy and buying all that stuff. But it serves as a good example of this divergence, which we're also seeing across the EU, where European economies, on average, are 66% larger than in 1990, and CO2 emissions are about a third lower than levels from that same year.What I'd like to talk about today, though, is how this dynamic is playing out in China, a place with a staggeringly high population, a rapidly enlarging middle class, and a whole lot of energy needs.—China is a renewable energy powerhouse.It's an energy of all kinds powerhouse, truthfully, but its development of renewable energy technologies, and its deployment of those technologies, has been truly remarkable, especially over the past decade or so.China has more renewable energy capacity—mostly solar and wind—than the next 13 countries combined. The US comes in second place, but China has four-times as much renewable energy capacity than the US.Despite that, though, because of China's huge population and its remarkable wealth-spreading success story, having brought something like 800 million people out of poverty over the past 40 years, a lot of people in the country need a lot more energy, every year. Because as people make more money, they tend to use more electricity and heat, and they tend to buy more things, need bigger homes, and so on. All of which requires more energy.So even though they've been building solar panels and wind turbines at a blistering rate, spreading these things all over the place, massively increasing their capacity for clean electricity, they've also been building more fossil fuel-burning power plants, especially coal power plants, and that's made it the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases; a little less than half of the country's total installed generation capacity burns fossil fuels, which is a huge drop from even a handful of years ago, but because so much of the remaining fossil fuel stock is coal-burning, those energy assets account for an outsized portion of global emissions.New, official data released by the Chinese government, so probably smart to take it with a grain of salt, though these sorts of numbers are usually more reliable than the economy-related numbers they put out, these days, but new data was crunched by Carbon Brief, and they found that March of 2024 was China's most recent peak in terms of emissions, and since then, their emissions have dropped by 1%.The drop might be accelerating, too, as they also found that new installations in the first quarter of 2025 dropped emissions by 1.6% compared to the same quarter in 2024, so they may be scaling up their renewables deployment efforts, which could lead to even more of a drop.And remarkably, China's power sector tallied an emissions drop of 5.8%, despite demand for power increasing by 2.5% that same period: which suggests that although China's population is still wanting more electricity and stuff, the same energy, or rather, a bit more of it, now produces fewer emissions, which means the ratio of renewables to non-renewables in their grid is shifting further in renewables' favor.Now, as with many other countries, China is beginning to replace coal in some of their power plants with natural gas, instead of swapping them out for solar, wind, and nuclear. Which is absolutely better than coal, but gas still emits CO2 when burned, and there are entirely different problems associated with gas infrastructure, including leaky pipes than allow methane to seep into the atmosphere, which stays up there for a shorter duration than CO2, but is a lot more potent, in terms of heat-capture—so gas in better in some ways, especially short-term ways, than coal, and less polluting for people on the ground, too, but definitely not as good for long-term outcomes as renewables.All that said, there's some optimism here, as this is the first time this sort of peak and drop has been noted in China's emission numbers in a context where that drop hasn't been directly attributable to economic factors; the pandemic, for instance, where a lot less energy was needed, fewer people were driving, and thus there were far fewer emissions globally, for a while.There's a chance, though, that this trend could be disrupted by the burgeoning trade-war between the Trump administration and essentially everyone, but China in particular. The China-facing component of Trump's tariffs has been mellowed for a few months, but is still significant at around 30% as of the day I'm recording this. And that could lead to a rewiring of global supply chains, but also a shift in what China manufacturers are producing, how they're getting those goods to their destination.Those shifting variables could lead to short-term or long-term changes in who's producing what, how it's being shipped, and thus, what sorts of energy expenditures we'll see, and how that energy's being produced, because of the peculiarities of those new, perhaps rapidly deployed, needs.Show Noteshttps://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/04/01/lifting-800-million-people-out-of-poverty-new-report-looks-at-lessons-from-china-s-experiencehttps://e360.yale.edu/features/china-renewable-energyhttps://arstechnica.com/science/2025/05/analysis-shows-that-chinas-emissions-are-dropping-due-to-renewables/https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean-energy-just-put-chinas-co2-emissions-into-reverse-for-first-time/https://mn350.org/understanding350https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2025/co2-emissionshttps://www.iea.org/commentaries/the-relationship-between-growth-in-gdp-and-co2-has-loosened-it-needs-to-be-cut-completelyhttps://wmo.int/media/news/record-carbon-emissions-highlight-urgency-of-global-greenhouse-gas-watchhttps://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-co2-emissions-will-reach-new-high-in-2024-despite-slower-growth/https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

In this week's episode of the Stock Market Options Trading Podcast, Eric recaps last week's pullback in SPX, driven by fresh EU tariff headlines, and how the forecast data from Alpha Crunching has responded. He highlights the shift in market tone based on the Average Strength Deviation (ASD) metric, which has now gone negative — a potential warning sign for deeper weakness ahead.

Mississippi is richer than France. No, really. The poorest U.S. state now has a higher GDP per person than France, the U.K., Italy, and Spain. How did that happen? Don't miss this eye-opening episode with George Mason University's Tyler Cowen. 

Donald Trump is the first U.S. President in over 30 years who is seriously talking about reducing the country's budget deficit, trade deficit and yes, the national debt, which has ballooned to over $37 trillion.    However, he must follow a specific formula, otherwise, it will end in tragedy, argues Victor Davis Hanson on today's edition of “Victor Davis Hanson: In His Own Words:”     “Jermone Powell, the head of the Fed, will not lower interest rates even though there's been a good jobs report, a good inflation report, a good corporate profits report. GDP is gonna be evaluated, apparently, upward and there's been low energy cost. That mortgage is still 4.25% Fed rate to 4.5%. And that means mortgages are still 6.5%, 7%. And that housing market is slowing as a result.   “So, you've got to get that down. And the way Trump has to do it is just two ways: Either cut the budget or raise taxes—which will strangle the economy—or continue the tax cuts. And hope two things: that the tax cuts—the extension—will prime the economy, along with cheap interest rates.   And the question that we all have now: Is cutting taxes on tips, is cutting taxes on Social Security, is cutting taxes on first responder, etc.—all of which Trump has mentioned—is that really stimulus as opposed to, say, accelerated depreciation investment for businesses? I don't know the answer. But I do know, as a historian, that if you do not cut the deficit and the national debt and you have bond raters like Moody's or the Fed that will not lower interest rates, you're going to be in a crisis.” 

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Gemini, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Bitcoin hits $112K, outperforming stocks and bonds as mainstream attention grows. U.S. plans to ease bank rules to boost Treasury demand through capital relief. Senate advances bipartisan stablecoin bill to unlock new buyers for U.S. debt. Bitcoin rally still looks early as search interest and halving returns lag past cycles. Government shifts from deficit cuts to inflating debt away via nominal GDP growth. ---- Invest as you spend with the Gemini Bitcoin Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The new orange Gemini Credit Card lets you earn Bitcoin on everything you buy: www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- Join our  mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: thenewsblock.substack.com ---- References in this week's episode: Bloomberg Article on Bitcoin's Outperformance  Fidelity's Recent Report on the Halving Cycle Google Search Interest for “Bitcoin” Still Depressed Lyn Alden's Tweet on SLR Rule Change News  Bessent Hints at Easing Bank Capital Rules  CFRB Estimates New House Bill Adds $3.3 Trillion Tether's Q1 2025 Attestation Report  Sacks: Stablecoin Bill Could Unlock Trillions  WSJ: Major Banks May Issue Joint Stablecoin Senate Advances Stablecoin Bill Bessent Interview on Stablecoins Bessent Interview on SLR Rules Bessent Interview on Boosting Growth  Elon Musk's Tweet on DOGE and Productivity ---- Upcoming events: Bitcoin 2025 is THIS WEEK in Las Vegas May 27-29th! Join me for my 4th Annual Women of Bitcoin Brunch! 2026 Conference passes will be available this week so get your early bird tickets and use code HODL for a discount: https://b.tc/conference  Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

The world faces a staggering $315 trillion debt crisis—three times global GDP! Are we on the verge of economic collapse with 10% of production going to interest payments? From meme coins exceeding major car manufacturers' values to escalating trade threats and actual wars, could a recession be the wake-up call we need? Or will it harm workers and small businesses while the wealthy exploit the situation? We examine why we avoid economic hardship, who suffers the burden, and whether this turmoil could lead to a more enlightened future or total disaster! Don't miss our analysis on the trade war. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫见微知著：从微观到宏观，来自投投释道。对于宏观研究，除了从GDP、CPI、PMI等传统宏观数据出发外，还可以通过企业层面的微观视角进行推导。企业财报作为微观经济活动的真实记录，往往能提前反映宏观经济的结构性变化。现在，给大家介绍下机构从最新的微观财报的角度，观察宏观经济的相关分析。这份分析无论对投资决策，还是对职业方向的选择，都具有重要的借鉴和参考意义。从收入看消费潜能薪酬数据是观察消费潜力的重要窗口。2024年制造业上市公司人均薪酬达17.6万元，同比增长4.4%，与城镇居民可支配收入增速基本持平。值得注意的是，劳动者报酬占营业收入比重升至9.9%，创2012年以来新高，反映出一次分配格局持续优化。更值得关注的是行业间的“薪酬比价”变化：制造业与金融业人均薪酬之比从2023年的0.443回升至0.454，达到十年峰值。这一变化既有助于经济“脱虚向实”，也为消费市场提供了更均衡的收入基础。从就业规模看，制造业上市公司吸纳劳动力总量达1601万人，同比增长3.3%，但结构分化显著。汽车制造与计算机通信电子行业合计新增就业50万人，几乎贡献全部增量；而电气机械行业则减少5.1万人。这种分化恰与产业升级方向吻合——高技术产业正成为就业增长的主引擎。从资本开支看产业转型装备制造业的扩张态势尤为亮眼。从2024年A股上市公司中的3657家制造业样本企业来看，制造业整体资本开支同比下降11.1%，但计算机通信电子、专用设备等五大行业的新上市企业逆势扩张，资本开支增速高达23.7%。这些行业同时是近两年IPO的集中领域，占新上市企业数量的65%，显示资本市场资源正向高技术领域倾斜。投资回报数据进一步验证了这一趋势。2024年制造业整体投资回报率回落至5.4%，但皮革毛皮、计算机通信电子等7个行业逆势提升，其中计算机通信电子行业回报率上升0.34个百分点。与此同时，制造业资产负债率连续三年攀升至52%，但装备制造业仍保持6.5%的资产增速，显著高于原材料制造业的3.2%，表明资金正主动适配产业转型需求。从现金流看上市公司从“输血”到“造血”的质变上市公司的分红行为正在发生历史性转变。2024年制造业企业“分配股利、利润或偿付利息支付的现金”与“吸收投资收到的现金”之比飙升至2.43，创2012年以来最高值，意味着企业已从资金的净流入方转变为净流出方。这一变化与监管部门披露的全市场分红2.4万亿元、创历史新高的数据相互印证，标志着A股市场逐渐强化股东回报功能。债务结构优化也为企业减负。制造业带息债务增速放缓至6.8%，利息负担降至3.36%，对应宏观层面企业贷款加权利率下行至3.34%在盈利承压的背景下，企业通过降低财务成本维持现金流。同时，数据显示，境外业务成为重要的利润率支撑——境外营收占比处于行业前1/3的企业的营业利润率达7.8%，显著高于境内业务主导企业的4.8%。从分化看压力与机遇不可忽视的是，企业经营压力仍在累积。应收账款周转天数延长至57.1天，为2012年以来次高；货币资金同比收缩1.9%，制造业细分领域降幅达2.8%。但若将视角拉长，当前资本开支/折旧摊销之比处于十年低位，预示未来供给压力有限，但需要注意的是，从资本开支/折旧摊销数据来看，电力、煤炭开采等少数行业所处的历史分位数较高，在中短期投资上可适当规避。微观财报如同一面棱镜，将宏观经济的复杂光谱分解为清晰色带。在短期经济整体承压的表象下，消费升级的潜能、产业转型的资源配置、资本市场功能重塑这三大线索，正在勾勒出中国经济结构转型的新轮廓。这些变化未必即时反映在季度GDP增速中，却为中长期高质量发展埋下了关键伏笔。见微知著，这些微观层面的特征或许正是观察中国宏观经济的一把新钥匙，也为投资、择业提供了重要的参考。

Is prosperity possible without growth? And in an age of environmental crisis and rising inequality, is our obsession with economic expansion doing more harm than good? On the podcast today, renowned economist Professor Tim Jackson challenges the very foundations of our economic thinking. In his groundbreaking book 'Prosperity Without Growth', Jackson argued that relentless pursuit of GDP not only fails to deliver human well-being — it actively damages both society and the planet. Now, in his latest book 'The Care Economy', Jackson issues a powerful warning: our fixation on growth has come at the cost of the most vital parts of our lives — care, health, and human connection. In a world that undervalues care work and prioritises profit over people, what would it take to build an economy centred on well-being instead of wealth? Jackson sat down with broadcaster Carl Miller to explore the future of prosperity, and why reimagining our values might just be the most important economic decision we face. ------ If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full ad free conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

遺產稅、房產贈與、信託到底怎麼搞懂？ 《十樂不設

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featuredChris takes aim at Treasury officials and economic spin doctors selling the myth that America can “grow its way out” of its massive debt. With sharp analogies and blunt financial truth, he dismantles the idea that rising GDP will magically erase irresponsible spending. Drawing parallels between overleveraged households and a debt-ridden nation, Markowski argues that until Washington stops digging, no amount of growth will save us. Fiscal austerity, R.I.P. www.watchdogonwallstreet.com

Women's health is under-researched and under-funded, leading women to live longer in poor health than men. However, tackling this gap can boost lifespans and GDP, a fact Paula Bellostas Muguerza understands well. This global head of healthcare and life sciences at consulting firm Kearney, discusses the role that policy and collaboration can play in creating incentives for real change, and driving awareness and education. She'll talk about [w]Health, a special platform she helped found that has grown into a community of 350 organizations sharing best practices to bridge gaps and what leaders can do to make change happen for their own organizations.  About this episode:  Kearney: [w]Health: Prescription for Change: Policy Recommendations for Women's Health Research: Related podcasts:  How bridging design gaps in science and tech can tackle gender bias:  Tackling these surprising blindspots can bridge gender gaps in health, opportunity and more:  

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫美债危机有多远？来自当理性来敲门。5月22日美股市场大跌，可能与市场担心美国债务规模继续攀升有关。那么，美债到底有没有危机？从数字上看，美债规模现在处在比较高的位置了，我个人觉得处于不太稳定的上限区间了。美国国债存量有36.2万亿美元，2024年GDP大约有29万亿美元，国债/GDP的比值大约在125%左右，是联邦政府年财政收入4.9万亿美元的7.4倍。这个债务规模高不高？只看这个数字没多大意义，我们看看偿债负担是什么情况：美国目前的联邦基金利率是4.33%，10年国债利率是4.58%，20年国债利率是4.96%。试想，假如未来1年利率一直保持在4.33%，美国的利息支出将变成多少？2023财年6590亿美元，2024财年1.1万亿美元，据此猜测，2025财年利息支出很可能变成1.3万亿美元左右，占财政收入的26%左右。依我之见，这个数字还在可控范围内，但是是在上限区间，如果再往上加，那就危险了。通常，假如一国政府债务无约束往上加，加到一定程度，入不敷出，还利息还不上了，怎么办？政府只有一个办法，实施通货膨胀。怎么实施？把利率降低，以降低还债负担，甚至来个更狠的，央行直接买国债。这将带来政府信誉丧失，也将带来经济中的通货膨胀，实际上是全民手里货币贬值，分担消化政府债务。这实际上是一种征税。但是美国的央行即美联储是独立于政府的，总统管不了联储主席。那么会发生什么？联储不降息，迫使政府不得不大幅削减支出，或加征新的税，结果是什么？经济衰退。而经济衰退又会让财政收入下降，削弱减少支出的效果。大概率，如果美国通胀不是那么厉害，联储为了避免衰退，恐怕也不得不降息。那么美债到底有没有危机？我理解不会有实质性大危机，但是短暂的市场恐惧是会有的。美债有没有危机，取决于市场上各路投资者对联邦政府能不能还钱的预期。目前看，市场很忌惮目前这个债务水平，希望不要再增加负债。但是，川普政府正在酝酿的预算案似乎坚持要大幅减税，同时增加一些政府债务。这个做法让市场恐惧，长债利率陡升就体现了这种厌恶，5月22日市场大跌似乎也表达了这种情绪。因此，美债有没有危机最终取决于川普政府会怎样做。川普政府手上目前有这样几个选项：1.大幅减税。这似乎是很坚定的决心。2.加大国防开支。这又进一步增加财政缺口。3.加关税来弥补减税的缺口。但是太高的关税遭遇了严重的外部压力和内部压力，最大的外部压力是中国和欧盟，坚决反制，打击美国出口。最大的内部压力是联储的态度——这可能是对高关税政策最大的打击。如果高关税造成通胀，联储将不得不维持较高的利率，拒绝降息。从目前态势看，继续坚持高关税已不现实。4.砍社保、砍基建等支出。这对居民是非常痛苦的事情，阻力很大。5.抬高债务上限，继续加大借债。目前看这个做法也遭到了国会的反击，前两天几个共和党议员倒戈，跟民主党议员一起否决了川普政府大幅提高国债的预算案。你觉得川普政府会怎么做？继续实施高关税？大砍福利支出？硬杠国会加大借债？这三个可能性都不是零。又或者，也许三个事情都做点但又不太出格？我个人觉得，最后一个策略可能性更大。由于各方的掣肘，川普政府无法大幅提高国债规模，无法实施高额关税，大规模砍福利支出也很难，很有可能都来点。最容易做的他已经做了，砍对外援助、砍教授们的研究资金，可是这些支出比较起来规模太小，满足不了他大幅减税的目标。而实际上，这两个做法对美国的伤害很大，尤其是砍教授们的研究资金，严重伤害了美国的创新能力。总的来说，我觉得不大可能有实质性美债危机，因为美国这个分权架构造成他没有办法随心所欲。但是，短期内的担忧以及波动是不可避免的。假如最终的做法是我考虑的最大可能性的最后一个策略的话，美国经济也不会遭受太严重的重创。但是我们倒是有可能在波动中寻找一些投资的好机会。实际上正确的做法很清楚：不要大规模减税，适度减少基建支出，不要搞关税大战，平稳降债，大力支持科研和国防。可是，除了减基建和增国防，其他都不被考虑。未来两个月是不确定性非常大的、非常重要的观察期，让我们静观其变。

-- On the Show: — Where the economy stands after four months of Trump: unemployment steady, GDP dips, inflation down, consumer confidence collapsing — Trump lashes out during a press conference, lies about healthcare and groceries, praises the Pope's nonexistent MAGA brother, and walks into a wall — Karoline Leavitt answers kids' questions with a stream of propaganda and fantasy about Trump, climate change, and gold-plated Oval Office décor — Trump unveils a fantasy “golden dome” missile defense shield, falsely claims it's already funded, and confuses reporters with rants about vaults and Russia — Kristi Noem embarrassingly fails a basic civics test on habeas corpus, illustrating why the Trump movement is so dangerous to constitutional rights — Republican Congressman Thomas Massie turns on Trump over the tax bill's $20 trillion price tag — and Trump demands Massie be voted out — Elon Musk says he'll scale back future political spending after Trump's failures, and insists media falsely portrayed him as a Nazi — Elizabeth Warren obliterates IRS nominee Billy Long for not knowing if the president can unilaterally revoke nonprofit status -- On the Bonus Show: Sources contradict Qatar plan "gift" narrative, Justice Dept opens inquiry into Andrew Cuomo, controversy explodes over Jake Tapper's book about Joe Biden's decline, much more...

Our analysts Seth Carpenter and Serena Tang discuss why they believe the global economy is set to slow meaningfully in the second half of 2025.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena: Today we'll discuss Morgan Stanley's midyear outlook for the global economy and markets.It's Wednesday, May 21st at 10am in New York.Seth, you published a year ahead outlook last November. Since President Trump took office back in January, there's been pretty significant policy and economic uncertainty and quite a few surprises. With this in mind, what is your current outlook for the global economy for the second half of this year and into 2026.Seth: So, we titled the outlook Skewed to the Downside because we really do think the U.S. economy, the global economy, is set to slow meaningfully from where we were coming into this year. Let's start with the U.S.As you said, policy changes came in a lot this year since the new administration took over. I would say the two key ones from a macro perspective so far have been trade policy and immigration policy.Tariffs have gone up, tariffs have gone down, tariffs have been suspended. Right now, what we think is going to ultimately take place is that we will see persistent, notable tariffs on China, lower tariffs on the rest of the world, and then we'll have to see how things evolve. What does that mean? Well, it means for the U.S. higher inflation and lower growth. In addition, immigration reform means that growth is going to slow because the growth rate of the labor force is going to slow.Now around the rest of the world, the tariff shock matters as well. When the U.S. puts in tariffs on its imports from other countries, that's negative demand for those other countries. So, we're looking for pretty weak growth in the euro area. Now, I will note, lots of people were excited about possible expansionary fiscal policy in Germany, and we think that's still there. We just don't think it's enough to give the euro area robust growth.In Asia, China's a main driver of the economy. China is a big recipient of these tariffs. We think the deflation cycle that we expected in China keeps going on. This reduction in demand from the U.S. is not going to help, but there'll probably be a little bit at the margin offsetting fiscal policy.So, what does that mean put together? Lackluster growth in China. Call it 4 percent slow growth for yet another year. Overall, the global economy should step down. Will it be a recession? That's one of the key questions that we hear from clients, but we don't think so. Not quite. Just a meaningful step downSerena: Interesting. Any particular regions that seem to be bright spots or surprises -- or perhaps have seen the biggest shift in your outlook?Seth: I guess I'd flag two potential bright spots around the world. The first is India. India has been, for us, a favorite. It will have the highest growth rate of any economy that we have in our coverage area. And because it's such a big economy, that's part of why the global economy can't lose that much steam. India has lots going for it. There are cyclical factors boosting growth in the near term. But there are also longer-term structural policy driven reasons to think that Indian growth will stay solid for the foreseeable future.I guess I'd also throw in Japan. Now its growth rate isn't going to be anywhere near the kind of growth in number terms that we're going to see from India. But this has to be taken in the context of 25 years of essentially zero growth of nominal GDP. The reflationary cycle that we think started a couple years ago remains intact, even with the tariff shock. And so, we're pretty optimistic still that Japanese reflation will continue.Serena: And to what extent are U.S. tariffs contributing to global inflationary pressures? I mean, how do you expect the Fed and other central banks to respond?Seth: The tariffs are imposed by the United States on most of the imports coming into the country, whereas other countries, maybe they have some retaliatory tariffs just against the U.S., but definitely not as broad as the U.S. That means for the U.S. tariffs are going to drive up inflation domestically and drive down growth, whereas for the rest of the world, it's mostly just a negative demand shock. So, they will be disinflationary for the rest of the world and pushing down growth.What does that mean for central banks? Well, outside of the U.S., central banks are going to see this as slowing aggregate demand, and so it's pretty clear what it is that they want to do. If they were hiking, they can stop hiking. If they were going to hold steady, they can lower rates a little bit. And if they were already lowering interest rates like the European Central Bank, well they can probably keep going with that without having to worry. And that's why we think the ECB is going to lower its policy rate to probably 1.5 percent and maybe even lower, which is below where the market is expecting things.Now for the Fed, things are much more tricky. The Fed cares about inflation, the Fed cares about U.S. growth, and both of those variables are going in the opposite direction of what they want over the rest of this forecast. Right now, inflation's too high for the Fed, and history shows that inflation goes up first with tariffs before the growth rate hits. So, the Fed's probably going to wait until the hard data show a bigger slowdown in the economy, a worsening. And the labor market. That is a bigger concern for them than the already too high inflation that is set to rise further over the rest of the year.Serena: And in your view, how does trade policy uncertainty influence business investment, particularly in export-oriented industries or in economies tightly linked to U.S. demand?Seth: Yeah. I think it has to be negative and therein lies one of the biggest challenges is just how negative. And I can't say for sure. But what we do know is that an uncertainty tends to be very negative for business investment spending decisions. If you're trying to make a decision, should I build a new factory?This is something that's going to have a long life to it, and you're going to get benefits hopefully for several years. How big are those benefits relative to the cost? Well, right now it's not at all clear, and so there's an option value to waiting.And we think that uncertainty is depressing investment decisions right now. I think it has to affect export-oriented industries. There's a lot of questions about what sort of retaliatory tariffs, other countries might impose.But it also affects domestic driven businesses because, well, they're going to have to see what their demand is. And some of the ones that are just focused on the U.S. economy are selling imported goods. So, it affects businesses across the board. Serena: Right. And how do U.S. tariff hikes spill over into emerging markets, and how might these countries buffer against these shocks?Seth: Yeah, I think there's a range of outcomes and the range is as wide as there are different countries. If you stay close to home. Take Mexico. Mexico is a big trading partner with the U.S. and early on in this whole tariff discussion, they were actually the targets of lots of tariff threats. That could have hurt them directly because there'd be less demand for their exports to the United States.Now we've got some resolution. We have the trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, and most of Mexico's exports to the U.S. are exempt under those conditions. However, the indirect effect is important as well. Mexico is very attached to the U.S. economy, and so as the U.S. economy slows because of these tariffs, the Mexican economy will slow as well.But there's also an indirect effect through currency markets, and I think this is a channel that's more broadly applicable across EM. If the Fed is going to be on hold, like we think holding interest rates higher for longer than the market might currently think, that means that EM central banks who might want to lower their policy rate to support their economy are going to be caught in a bit of a bind.They can't afford to take the risks that their currency will misbehave if they ease too much too far ahead of the Fed. And so, I think there is a little bit of a constraint for EM central banks, thinking about how much can I attend to domestic matters and how much do I have to pay attention to external matters?Serena: Now, I know forecasting economic growth is difficult in even the best of times, and this has been a period of exceptional volatility. How are you and your economic colleagues factoring all of this uncertainty?Seth: It's a great question and luminary minds like Neils Bohr, the Nobel Laureate in physics, and Yogi Berra, everyone's favorite prophet, have both said, ‘Forecasting is hard, especially about the future.' And this time, as you note, is even more so. So, what can we do? We try to come up with as many different scenarios as we can. We ask ourselves not just what's the most likely outcome, because there's uncertainty. The policy changes could come fast and furious. We also try to ask ourselves, if tariffs were to go back up from where they are now, how would that outcome turn out. If tariffs were to go away entirely, how would that turn out?You have to start thinking more and more, I think, in terms of scenarios.Serena:  And does this, in your view, change how much or how little investors should focus on the macro economy?Seth: Well, I think it means that investors have to focus every bit as much on the macro economy as they have in the past. I think it's undeniable that if we're right – and the U.S. economy slows down materially, and the global economy slows down with it – longer-term interest rates are probably going to come down along the lines of what our colleagues in interest rate strategy think. That makes a lot of sense to me. I think the trickier part though is knowing where the macro economy is going.We've got our forecast, but we are ready to make a revision if the facts change. And I think that's the trickier part for investors. The macro economy still matters but having a lot of conviction about where it's going, and as a result, what it means for asset prices? Well, that's the trickier part.Serena, you've been asking me lots of questions and they've been great questions, but I'm going to turn the table. I'm going to start asking questions right back to you.But we probably have to save that for another episode. So, let's pause it there.Serena: That sounds great Seth.Seth: And to the people listening, I want to say thanks for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.Key Takeaways:PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation: CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.Macro Noise & Recession Probability: Macroeconomic forecasting in today's environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.Economic Resilience Remains Strong: Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth: Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable: Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.Why Lower Oil Prices Haven't Translated to Relief at the Pump Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven't followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrick Connect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Connect with Skanda:• X: @IrvingSwisher Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com #FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath

On this week's MACRODOSE, James Meadway unpacks: First, the UK avoids recession! Where did recent positive GDP figures come from and are they sustainable? (0:48) Second, more news from "The Uninsurable World", as global losses from natural disasters hit $318 billion in 2024 (3:28). And finally, how the Labour government is responding to historic droughts in the UK (12:07). For exclusive content - including our new chat show, The Curve, and Macrodose's monthly newsletter, The Fix - visit: https://www.patreon.com/macrodose.Got a question or comment? Reach out to us at ⁠macrodose@planetbproductions.co.uk⁠.To learn more about the work we do at Planet B Productions, head to ⁠planetbproductions.co.uk⁠.

Prof Danny Quah, Dean of LKY School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, returns to Kopi Time to share his insights on the dangers and opportunities stemming from the changing world order. We go over two of his recent pieces; first, an open letter to the US president (penned before the US elections last November, and second, a research paper on the correlation between global trade and geopolitics. Prof Quah dissects the great power rivalry through (i) the perception of win-win versus zero sum and (ii) a tendency to attribute domestic welfare shortfalls (blue collar jobs, health, education, safety) to external factors (trade, immigration, defence spending). He then points out that trade liberalisation and the politics of global engagement have gone hand in hand on the way up (say, from the 1960s to 2010) and down (the past decade and a half). We then discuss a key point—the US shying away from globalisation or green transition does not doom those dynamics. There is a huge world of trade and GDP outside the US. The world is not being swayed; rules and agreements among the rest are proceeding, with the window left open for the US to return one day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Whether or not the “Big Beautiful Bill” passes, your taxes are going up—and the truth is in the math that no one in Washington wants to talk about. From expiring Trump-era tax cuts to ballooning Social Security costs, the path we're on leads to massive debt, higher taxes, and economic instability.This episode gets into:2017 tax cuts set to expire by 2025, raising taxes across the boardDebt-to-GDP could hit 129% with gimmicks made permanentSocial Security and Medicare are now driving 100% of spending growthPayroll taxes may need to rise 28% just to stay afloatReal solutions no one is proposing—like giving taxpayers back their Social Security inputThis is math, not politics. LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured

Join us today as we discuss a lot of current events and attempt to decipher them. Today we talk about Biden’s cancer surprise, mass school closures, Russia’s GDP collapse, JP Morgan’s 180 on Bitcoin, the Genius Act, Biochar going main stream and more. Join Me Today as we Discuss… The collapse of public education continues – Ft. Worth closing 18 schools – link The Biden cancer announcement is a case study in propaganda – link Why did Russias GDP collapse by 75% since Trump took office, one word oil – link 1 – link 2 JP Morgan and Jamie Dimon … Continue reading →

Guest Phil Kerpen, American Commitment, joins to discuss latest with the reconciliation bill in the House. Discussion of spending cuts, tax breaks, GDP growth, and more. Will the REINS Act stay in the bill and can we begin to bring power back to Congress over the bureaucratic state? Democrats see AOC as the current leader of the Democrat party? Discussion of the Dem agenda, identity politics, and progressives doubling down on the child trans issue. 

In an era where government tech projects often end in billion-dollar failures and privacy nightmares, there's a tiny Baltic nation that's quietly revolutionized what's possible. Estonia—a country of just 1.3 million people—has built what might be the world's most efficient digital government. Every public service is online. Digital signatures save 2% of GDP annually. And in a twist that should intrigue American conservatives, they've done it with smaller government, not bigger.How did a former Soviet republic become a model of lean digital governance? What's their secret for avoiding the "big-bang IT project" disasters that plague Washington? And most importantly—can America's divided political system learn anything from Estonia's success?Joining for this episode are two experts who've studied Estonia's digital miracle up close. Dr. Keegan McBride is senior policy advisor in emerging technology and geopolitics at the Tony Blair Institute. He's also a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Foundation for American Innovation. Joel Burke is the author of Rebooting a Nation: the Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government, and the Startup Revolution, and Senior Public Policy Analyst at Mozilla.

Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What does a lower credit rating mean for investors, interest rates, and the broader economy? Lance Roberts examines the implications of Moody's recent U.S. debt downgrade, historical precedents, market reactions, and potential consequences for fiscal policy and the bond market.

Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating to AA1 from AAA sent shockwaves through the market, but Thierry Wizman says investors should keep things in perspective. Wizman notes that while the downgrade is a "yellow flag" for the U.S. economy, it's not a default event. Instead, he believes it highlights the country's long-term fiscal issues, including its growing debt-to-GDP ratio and the unpredictability of U.S. policy making.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The financial landscape has dramatically shifted, leaving income-focused investors struggling to find reliable yield. Traditional bonds no longer serve as the dependable ballast they once were, forcing advisors and retirees to explore alternative paths to consistent income.Howard Chan, formerly of PIMCO and Goldman Sachs, shares how his firm Kurv Investments is addressing this challenge through volatility harvesting strategies that transform growth-oriented technology stocks into income-generating powerhouses. This approach solves a fundamental dilemma: no longer must investors choose between growth potential and current income – they can potentially have both.What makes these strategies particularly valuable today is the breakdown of traditional asset correlations. The negative relationship between stocks and bonds that underpinned the classic 60/40 portfolio has weakened significantly, with both assets sometimes declining simultaneously during market stress. Volatility itself has emerged as an effective portfolio diversifier with a -0.8 correlation to equity markets this year.Through covered call writing on high-volatility tech names, these strategies can generate substantial yields (7-14% annually) while maintaining some upside participation. The approach follows a four-step framework for navigating market turbulence: mitigating downside during corrections, generating income while awaiting clarity, repositioning for rebounds, and then capturing upside during risk-on periods.Particularly enlightening is Howard's warning about NAV erosion in high-yield ETFs – when funds promise distributions above what markets can sustainably deliver, they must return principal to maintain their stated yield, creating a slow death spiral for investor capital. This critical concept is often overlooked by yield-hungry retail investors.For those approaching or in retirement who rely on portfolio income rather than total return, these alternative income streams may provide the consistency and tax efficiency that traditional fixed income currently lacks. As Howard notes, with US debt growing at 7% while GDP grows at just 2-3%, challenging fiscal choices lie ahead – making thoughtful income strategies more essential than ever.With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations, chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files.Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files.Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive. Foodies unite…with HowUdish!It's social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world's first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world!Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups!HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world.So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today:

早餐是補充蛋白質的黃金期，吃錯食物小心可能吃進精緻澱粉、加工品、油脂、熱量…等隱形負擔早餐補充蛋白質，首選統一陽光，嚴選非基改黃豆、植物性大豆蛋白、零膽固醇，營養少負擔！ https://sofm.pse.is/7lbb7k -- 高雄美術特區3-4房全新落成，《惟美術》輕軌C22站散步即到家，近鄰青海商圈，卡位明星學區，徜徉萬坪綠海。 住近美術館，擁抱優雅日常，盡現驕傲風範！美術東四路29號 07-553-3838 https://sofm.pse.is/7lbb9u －－－－以上訊息由 SoundOn 動態廣告贊助商提供－－－－ 中國已進入了「歷史垃圾時間」嗎？什麼是爛尾國度？什麼是「全面爛尾」狀態？習近平為何不認為中國存在爛尾問題？他真的想與美國脱鉤嗎？與美國脫鉤之後的中國，能繼續繁榮嗎？為何任何關於中國的樂觀評估都錯了？川普的關稅戰如何加速中國淪為爛尾國度？台灣和美國該如何反抗來自中國的生物病毒、經濟病毒、政治病毒、文化病毒？台灣人和美國人要如何看穿中共政權的邪惡、陰毒與狠辣？精彩訪談內容，請鎖定@華視三國演議！ 本集來賓：#余杰 #矢板明夫 主持人：#汪浩 以上言論不代表本台立場 #爛尾 #關稅 #吃草 #中美 電視播出時間

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫15年港股风云：从历次港股行情看互联网龙头崛起，来自港股小姐。近期，全球资本市场经历了剧烈波动，但港股的反弹幅度却十分亮眼。恒生科技指数自低点以来最大涨幅超23%，而同期万得全A仅上涨了11%。自2025年初以来，港股的表现一直领先，1月13日至3月7日恒生科技累计涨幅超40%，同期万得全A涨幅仅为11%。回顾近20年，港股有三轮明显跑赢A股的行情，本文尝试找出历次港股占优的主要原因，并梳理互联网龙头崛起的脉络，希望能为当下市场提供一些参考。第一轮：海外流动性充裕，移动互联浪潮催化2011-2014年港股持续跑赢A股，累计长达33个月，恒生指数相对沪深300的超额收益达62个百分点。究其原因，海外充裕流动性及人民币升值是核心因素，此外移动互联网浪潮的催化也是推升港股走牛的关键所在。从宏观流动性看，金融危机后欧美央行长期维持低利率政策，大量资金流入港股市场。2011年10月至2014年7月，外资累计流入港股市场10亿美元，港元汇率也多次触及强方兑换保证。此外，人民币从2005年开始自然升值，2010年6月后重新步入上行趋势，2014年1月达到接近6的高位，这也为港股的表现提供了有力支撑。除了海外流动性、人民币升值与国内基本面复苏之外，移动互联网浪潮更是推动了港股的上涨行情。2010-2012年移动互联浪潮开启，2009年我国3G正式开始商用，苹果公司于2010年发布了划时代的产品iPhone 4，自此揭开智能手机取代功能机的序幕。映射到股市上，行情沿苹果产业链传导，以各类硬件设备为主题的投资机会开始出现。2011-2012年港股和A股硬件端上涨，其中港股涨幅更大，主因港股聚集中国大部分互联网巨头，能够映射产业变革并引领上涨。第二轮：南下资金大举流入，互联网消费龙头崛起2016-2018年，港股再次大幅跑赢A股。2016年1月至2018年7月，恒生指数跑赢沪深300指数38个百分点。国内供给侧结构型改革推动基本面向好、海外相对宽松的流动性环境是这轮行情的核心原因，另外南下资金的大幅流入也是阶段性推升港股的关键因素。2016年初，港股估值处于历史最低水平，恒生指数PB仅0.87倍，配置价值凸显。内部来看，供给侧改革和棚改货币化政策推动了基本面的回暖。2016年开始的供给侧改革化解了过剩产能，提升了企业盈利。棚改政策则带动了地产销售和投资的回暖，推动了经济增长。外部来看，2016年美联储加息步伐暂停，海外流动性环境相对宽松南下资金的大举流入也是港股上涨的重要支撑。2014年沪港通开通后，南向资金持续流入港股市场。2016年12月深港通启动后，南下资金的影响力进一步增大。2016年和2017年，南下资金累计净流入分别达到2112亿元和2943亿元，较2015年的1016亿元大幅增长。来自中国内地的投资者在港股的成交占比从2013年的13%增长到2018年的28%。2017年，南下资金和外资加持下，互联网消费龙头开始崛起。国内企业受益于庞大的用户群体和应用场景的不断迭代创新，在内容和应用端优势逐渐凸显，带动了港股互联网平台企业盈利快速增长。2017年港股软件服务行业归母净利增速维持在60-80%左右的高速增长水平，2017年1月-2018年3月腾讯控股大涨146%，带动港股软件服务行业指数涨108%。此外，随着国内居民收入提升，消费升级趋势逐渐演绎，同期港股医疗和可选消费行业涨幅分别为69%和50%。第三轮：基本面快速修复，港股互联网龙头起飞2019年9月至2021年2月，恒生科技指数涨187%，较沪深300指数的超额收益达137个百分点。这一轮港股核心资产大幅跑赢的背后，一是海外流动性环境宽松，二是国内政策推动疫后经济快速修复，三是中概股赴港上市后吸引内外资流入港股。外部来看，2019年美国受中美贸易摩擦和内外需收缩影响，制造业萎缩，企业投资增长缓慢。美联储于2019年8月开启降息，随后3个月内将联邦基金目标利率从2.5%降至1.75%。2020年疫情爆发后，美联储两次降息共计150BP，并重启量化宽松政策。恒生科技等高成长板块对利率更敏感，海外流动性的宽松环境为其上涨提供了动力。内部来看，2020年疫情后我国经济更快复苏，港股企业盈利快速改善。在稳增长政策支持下，国内企业逐步恢复正常生产经营活动，企业盈利逐步改善。GDP累计同比从2020年一季度的-6.8%升至2020年四季度的2.3%，而美国、欧盟等海外国家GDP全年依旧负增长。港股归母净利累计同比增速也从2020年一季度的-23%回升至2021年一季度的60%，其中恒生科技盈利回升更快、幅度更大，归母净利累计同比增速从2020年一季度的-8%回升至2021年一季度的240%。流动性宽松和基本面修复，叠加中概股回港上市潮，吸引内外资流入港股。2018年4月30日港交所推行上市制度改革后，中概股回流趋势加速。2019年和2020年，阿里、网易、京东等多个中概股纷纷赴港股二次上市。优质资产的注入提高了港股的流动性与吸引力，内资和外资在2020年和2021年加速流入港股。2020年1月至2021年2月期间，南下资金累计净流入港股超9000亿元，外资也持续流入港股，成为港股上涨的重要催化。科技国产替代和互联网核心资产接力推动恒生科技走牛。2019年中美摩擦催生了科技国产替代行情。美国通过发布出口管制清单等方式打压我国龙头企业，催生了港股国产替代行情。中国科技企业加快了国产化进程，尤其是在芯片设计、制造设备、材料等关键环节上的布局。2019年9月至2020年2月期间，港股半导体、信创等板块股价快速上涨，恒生科技指数期间涨幅为45%。2020年，新冠疫情成为全球数字化转型的重要催化剂。截至2020年12月，我国网民规模达9.89亿，互联网普及率超70%。港股互联网平台凭借其在线上经济领域的核心地位，成为这一浪潮的核心受益者。优异基本面支撑下，港股优质互联网龙头企业成为南下和海外资金最青睐的板块。截至2021年2月，腾讯控股和美团是南下资金持仓最重的个股，持股市值分别达4506、1984亿元。

Let's talk about a 2nd Quarter negative GDP and Trump....

“That he not busy being born is busy dying”, Dylan noted in “It's Alright, Ma (I'm Only Bleeding)”, his grim 1965 masterpiece about reinvention. Sixty years later, at a time when “everything is technology”, these words have particular resonance in Silicon Valley. As That Was The Week publisher Keith Teare and I discuss in our weekly roundup of tech news, every Big Tech firm - from OpenAI and Airbnb to YouTube and Netflix — is in the perpetual business of radical reinvention. It's what Keith identifies as “the truth” of our technological age. Surviving this mayhem, then, requires not just perpetual birth, but also a lot of conscious dying. 5 takeaways* Keith Teare argues that "truth" can only meaningfully apply to facts and past events, not to opinions or future possibilities. He suggests that what becomes "true" is created after the fact through human actions and choices.* Our discussion explores how technological change is accelerating, with Paki McCormick's article "Everything is Technology" framing technology broadly as "the process of human ingenuity transforming conditions and creating change" rather than just gadgets.* We discuss AI's impact on education, with Keith sharing an example of a professor who allegedly resigned in real-time after discovering students had created a website with AI-generated lecture summaries and essay responses, highlighting the disruption to traditional academic models.* Our conversation covers how established companies like Airbnb and Netflix are evolving their business models, with Netflix adding an ad-supported tier alongside its subscription service and Airbnb expanding from accommodations to curated experiences.* We discuss economic differences between regions, referencing Yascha Mounk's article on the "great divergence" between the US and Europe in terms of GDP per capita, noting that the US has roughly three times the GDP per capita of Europe (approximately $85,000 versus $30,000). This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Felicity Hannah dissects the week in business with her Friday panel, looking at the UK's GDP growing better than expected, and US retail chain Walmart are raising their prices to mitigate tariffs. We also hear from a business booming because of Eurovision (and their karaoke).

Carol Roth returns for a breakdown of Trump's tariffs and a nuanced examination of America's economic challenges. She and Bridget discuss the tariffs' disproportionate impact on the 35 million small businesses in the US, the alarming debt-to-GDP ratio that has reached unsustainable levels, the truth about American companies with overseas supply chains, the prevailing misconceptions about tariffs, and why a precision approach to the tariffs would have been much better. They discuss the realities of manufacturing, why there's no getting around math, a potential debt spiral, the stability of the US dollar, why we shouldn't throw the baby doll out with the bathwater, and how to best prepare for the death of a loved one. Packed with in-depth knowledge presented in approachable and understandable language, this episode is not to be missed by those desiring a rational and unbiased analysis of Trump's tariff plan. Get Carol's Future File workbook at futurefile.com. Sponsor Link: - Quest offers 100+ lab tests to empower you to have more control over your health journey. Choose from a variety of test types that best suit your needs, use code WALKINS to get 25% off - https://www.questhealth.com --------------------------------------------------------------------- Walk-Ins Welcome with Bridget Phetasy - Podcast Bridget Phetasy admires grit and authenticity. On Walk-Ins Welcome, she talks about the beautiful failures and frightening successes of her own life and the lives of her guests. She doesn't conduct interviews—she has conversations. Conversations with real people about the real struggle and will remind you that we can laugh in pain and cry in joy but there's no greater mistake than hiding from it all. By embracing it all, and celebrating it with the stories she'll bring listeners, she believes that our lowest moments can be the building blocks for our eventual fulfillment. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- PHETASY IS a movement disguised as a company. We just want to make you laugh while the world burns. https://www.phetasy.com/ Buy PHETASY MERCH here: https://www.bridgetphetasy.com/ For more content, including the unedited version of Dumpster Fire, BTS content, writing, photos, livestreams and a kick-ass community, subscribe at https://phetasy.com/ Twitter - https://twitter.com/BridgetPhetasy Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/bridgetphetasy/ Podcast - Walk-Ins Welcome with Bridget Phetasy https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/walk-ins-welcome/id1437447846 https://open.spotify.com/show/7jbRU0qOjbxZJf9d49AHEh https://play.google.com/music/listen?u=0#/ps/I3gqggwe23u6mnsdgqynu447wvaSupport the show

Our analysts Adam Jonas and Sheng Zhong discuss the rapidly evolving humanoid technologies and investment opportunities that could lead to a $5 trillion market by 2050. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Adam Jonas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Adam Jonas Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Autos and Shared Mobility.Sheng Zhong: And I'm Sheng Zhong, Head of China Industrials.Adam Jonas: Today we're talking about humanoid robots and the $5 trillion global market opportunity we see by 2050.It's Thursday, May 15th at 9am in New York.If you're a Gen Xer or a boomer, you probably grew up with the idea of Rosie, the robot from the Jetsons. Rosie was a mechanical butler who cooked, cleaned, and did the laundry while dishing out a side of sarcasm.Today's idea of a humanoid robot for the home is much more evolved. We want robots that can adapt to unpredictable environments, and not just clean up a messy kitchen but also provide care for an elderly relative. This is really the next frontier in the development of AI. In other words, AI must become more human-like or humanoid, and this is happening.So, Sheng, let's start with setting some expectations. What do humanoid robots look like today and how close are we to seeing one in every home?Sheng Zhong: The humanoid is like a young child, in my opinion, although their abilities are different. A robot is born with a developed brain that is Large Language Model, and its body function develops fast.Less than three years ago, a robot barely can walk, but now they can jump, they can run. And just in last week, Beijing had a humanoid half marathon. While robot may lack on connecting its brain to its body action for work execution; sometimes they fail a lot of things. Maybe they break cups, glasses, and even they may fall down.So, you definitely don't want a robot at home like that, until they are safe enough and can help on something. To achieve that a lot of training and practice are needed on how to do things at a high success rate. And it takes time, maybe five years, 10. But in the long term, to have a Rosie at every family is a goal.So, Adam, our U.S. team has argued that the global humanoid Total Adjustable Market will reach $5 trillion USD by 2050. What is the current size of this market and how do we get to that eye-popping number in next 25 years?Adam Jonas: So, the current size of the market, because it's in development phase, is extremely low. I won't put it a zero but call it a black zero – when you look back in time at where we came from. The startups, or the public companies working on this are maybe generating single digit million type dollar revenues. In order to get to that number of $5 trillion by 2050 – that would imply roughly 1 billion humanoids in service, by that year. And that is the amount of the replacement value of actual units sold into that population of 1 billion humanoid robots on our global TAM model.The more interesting way to think about the TAM though is the substitution of labor. There are currently, for example, 4 billion people in the global labor market at $10,000 per person. That's $40 trillion. You know, we're talking 30 or 40 per cent of global GDP. And so, imagining it that way, not just in terms of the unit times price, but the value that these humanoids, can represent is, we think, a more accurate way of thinking about the true economic potential of this adjustable market.Sheng Zhong: So, with all these humanoids in use by 2050, could you paint us a picture in broad strokes of what the economy might look like in terms of labor market and economic growth?Adam Jonas: We can only work through a scenario analysis and there's certainly a lot of false precision that could be dangerous here. But, you know, there's no limit to the imagination to think about what happens to a world where you actually produce your labor; what it means for dependency ratios, retirement age, the whole concept of a GDP could change.I don't think it's an exaggeration to contemplate these technologies being comparable to that of electric light or the wheel or movable type or paper. Things that just completely transform an economy and don't just increase it by five or 10 per cent but could increase it by five or 10 times or more. And so, there are all sorts of moral and ethical and legal issues that are also brought up.The response to which; our response to which will also dictate the end state. And then the question of national security issues and what this means for nation states and, we've seen in our tumultuous human history that when there are changes of technologies – even if they seem to be innocent at first, and for the benefit of mankind – can often be uh, used to, grow power and to create conflict. So Sheng, how should investors approach the humanoid theme and is it investible right now?Sheng Zhong: Yes, it's not too early to invest in this mega trend. Humanoid will be a huge market in the future, like you said. And it starts now. There are multi parties in this industry, including the leading companies from various background: the capital, the smart people, and the government. So, I believe the industry will evolve rapidly. And in Morgan Stanley's Humanoid: A Hundred Report a hundred names was identified in three categories. They are brand developers, bodies components suppliers, and the robot integrators. And we'd like to stick with the leading companies in all these categories, which have leading edge technology and good track record. But at the meantime, I would emphasize that we should keep close eyes on the disruptors.Adam Jonas: So, Sheng, it seems that national support for the humanoid and embodied AI theme in China is at least today, far greater than in any other nation. What policy support are you seeing and how exactly does it compare to other regions?Sheng Zhong: Government plays an important role in the industry development in China, and I see that in humanoid industry as well. So currently, the local government, they set out the target, and they connect local resources for supply chain corporation. And on the capital perspective, we see the government background funds flow into the industry as well. And even on the R&D, there are Robot Chinese Center set up by the government and corporates together. In the past there were successful experience in China, that new industry grow with government support, like solar panels, electronic vehicles. And I believe China government want to replicate this success in humanoids. So, I won't be surprised to see in the near future there will be national humanoid target industry standard setup or adoption subsidies even at some time.And in fact we see the government supports in other countries as well. Like in South Korea there is a K Humanoid Alliance and Korean Ministry of Trade has full support in terms of the subsidy on robotic R&D infrastructure and verification.So, what is U.S. doing now to keep up with China? And is the gap closing or widening?Adam Jonas: So, Sheng, I think that there's a real wake up call going on here. Again, some have called it a Sputnik moment. Of course the DeepSeek moment in terms of the GenAI and the ability for Chinese companies to show just extraordinary and remarkable level of ingenuity and competition in these key fields, even if they lack the most leading-edge compute resources like the U.S. has – has really again been quite shocking to the rest of the world. And it certainly gotten the attention of the administration, and lawmakers in the DOD. But then thinking further about other incentives, both carrot and stick to encourage onshoring of critical embodiment of AI industries – including the manufacturing of these types of products across not just humanoids, but electronic vertical takeoff and landing aircraft drones, autonomous vehicles – will become increasingly evident. These technologies are not seen as, ‘Hey, let's have a Rosie, the robot. This is fun. This is nice to have.' No, Sheng. This is seen as existential technology that we have to get right.Finally, Sheng, as far as moving humanoid technology to open source, is this a region specific or a global trend? And what is your outlook on this issue?Sheng Zhong: I actually think this could be a global trend because for technology and especially for humanoid, the Vision Language Model is obviously if there is more adoption, then more data can be collected, and the model will be smarter. So maybe unlike the Windows and Android dominant global market, I think for humanoid there could be regional level open-source models; and China will develop its own model. For any technology the application on the downstream is key. For humanoid as an AI embodiment, the software value needs to be realized on hardware. So I think it's key to have mass production of nice performance humanoid at a competitive cost.Adam Jonas: Listen, if I can get a humanoid robot to take my dog, Foster out and clean up after him, I'm gonna be pretty excited. As I am sure some of our listeners will be as well. Sheng, thank you so much for this peak into our near future.Sheng Zhong: Thank you very much, Adam, and great speaking with you,Adam Jonas: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The Prime Minister is in Albania today to focus on immigration: the government has announced that the UK is in talks to set up 'return hubs' with other countries to send failed asylum seekers abroad. Unfortunately for the government though, also going abroad are Britain's millionaires. In the cover article for this week's Spectator, our economics editor Michael Simmons writes that London lost 11,300 dollar millionaires last year alone. These figures run in stark contrast to today's news that GDP increased by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025. This continues a trend of mixed signals for Britain's economy. Also on the podcast Spectator editor Michael Gove discusses his interview with justice secretary Shabana Mahmood, who announced today that some reoffenders will be recalled to parliament for a reduced, fixed amount of time to relieve the pressure on prisons. Both Michaels join Lucy Dunn to discuss further, and for the full interview with Shabana Mahmood click through to Spectator TV.  Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg debunk myths about the American middle class and globalization, analyze historical data on wage stagnation and trade, assess China's technological rise, and discuss U.S. economic resilience and policy responses to protectionism. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠ AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Globalization did not hollow out the American middle class: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/globalization-did-not-hollow-out Noahpinion: ⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠  – TAKEAWAYS: Debunking the Middle Class Hollowing Myth: Noah challenges the common narrative that trade and globalization hollowed out America's middle class. Manufacturing and Economic Shifts: Noah explains that while manufacturing employment did decline significantly (about 3 million jobs in the 2000s), this didn't correspond with overall middle class decline. The China Shock Reality: The "5% truth" in the middle class hollowing narrative relates to what economists call the "China Shock" - a period in the 2000s when Chinese imports surged rapidly. America's Globalization Status: Contrary to popular belief, America has never been highly globalized compared to other countries. Import penetration (imports relative to GDP) is much lower than in countries like China, France or Germany. Energy Crisis Impact: Noah suggests the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 had a more significant impact on American manufacturing than trade policies. Sino-Futurism and China's Future: They discuss "Sino-futurism" - the idea that China represents the technological future. Noah argues this perspective is overblown, noting issues with China's rapid infrastructure development (like the durability of construction), urban planning problems, and the cyclical nature of technological leadership.

In this episode of A Penny or Two for Your Thoughts, hosts Chantel Windeshausen and Liz Malmberg sit down with Dr. Jennifer A. Davidson—Associate Professor of Practice in Economics at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln and President of the Nebraska Council on Economic Education—to unpack the current economic landscape. Dr. Davidson describes the 2025 economy as “depressing,” citing declining GDP, volatile markets, and wavering consumer confidence. Despite the gloom, she offers practical advice on budgeting, saving, and maintaining mental wellness during uncertain times. From grocery hacks and subscription cuts to the “barbell approach” of balancing optimism with preparation, this episode delivers actionable insights for anyone navigating financial stress. When it comes to all things financial, there are often a lot of questions. Being two marketers and moms on a budget, we certainly have all the questions. That's why we're bringing in the subject matter experts to help educate us on all things financial and get their thoughts to help improve our financial wellness and the financial well-being of our communities. Join us for a few laughs, some great insights, and hopefully, a few tips you can take on your path to financial success. Visit us at our website: https://www.centrisfcu.org/a-penny-or... Listen to our Podcast on: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6Lf8gGY... Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast... You can listen to the "Econ is Life" podcast on the following platforms: Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/econ-is-life/id1790066490 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5toHYz2k2fAC1ebEAvGpfd Buzzsprout: https://www.buzzsprout.com/2440742/episodes If you have any questions you would like us to ask our Subject Matter Experts, send them our way to apennyforyourthoughts@centrisfcu.orgFollow Centris on Social!Facebook | Instagram | Twitter | LinkedInThis is another Hurrdat Media Production. Hurrdat Media is a podcast network and digital media production company based in Omaha, NE. Find more podcasts on the Hurrdat Media Network by going to HurrdatMedia.com or Hurrdat Media YouTube channel!

The CPG Guys are joined in this episode by Nicole Collida Davis, Managing Director & SVP US National Accounts and Jennie Bell Managing Director & SVP US Global Clients at NielsenIQ, the world's leading consumer intelligence company, delivering the most complete understanding of consumer buying behavior and revealing new pathways to growth. Today NIQ has operations in 95+ countries representing 97% of the world's GDP. With a holistic retail read and the most comprehensive consumer insights—delivered with advanced analytics through state-of-the-art platforms—NIQ delivers the Full View™.Find Nicole on LinkedIn at: http://linkedin.com/in/nicolecollidaFind Jennie on LinkedIn at: http://linkedin.com/in/jennie-bell-a27568bFind NielsenIQ Media online at: http://nielseniq.com Nicole & Jennie answers these questions:Let me ask the obvious - what does a day in the life of each of you look like? What does the word work life balance mean to you?How do you both bring a sense of balance in your lives and get some ‘me time'What are day to day challenges you'll deal with in just getting it all done?How do you deal with away from home business travel? What does vacation travel mean to you? Do you get away? What's your next getaway? Let's talk the world of business leaders you two are. How do you practice wellness and balance and what you learn in your own lives - in your day job? What advice would you give other CPG parents listening to this episode ? CPG Guys Website: http://CPGguys.comFMCG Guys Website: http://FMCGguys.comCPG Scoop Website: http://CPGscoop.comSubscribe to Chain Drug Review here: https://chaindrugreview.com/#/portal/signupSubscribe to Mass Market Retailers here: https://massmarketretailers.com/#/portal/signupDISCLAIMER: The content in this podcast episode is provided for general informational purposes only. By listening to our episode, you understand that no information contained in this episode should be construed as advice from CPGGUYS, LLC or the individual author, hosts, or guests, nor is it intended to be a substitute for research on any subject matter. Reference to any specific product or entity does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by CPGGUYS, LLC. The views expressed by guests are their own and their appearance on the program does not imply an endorsement of them or any entity they represent. CPGGUYS LLC expressly disclaims any and all liability or responsibility for any direct, indirect, incidental, special, consequential or other damages arising out of any individual's use of, reference to, or inability to use this podcast or the information we presented in this podcast.

As a neighbor of Ukraine's and host to more than 2 million of its war refugees, Poland has seen, heard and felt what Russia is capable of, and it's now preparing for the worst. This year, Poland will spend nearly 5% of its GDP on defense, more than any other NATO member, including the U.S.NPR's Rob Schmitz reports on the country's plan to train every adult in Poland for war.For sponsor-free episodes of Consider This, sign up for Consider This+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Email us at considerthis@npr.org.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

The recent BEA "Advance Estimate" for 1q GDP growth showed a lackluster drop of 0.3 percent, but it included unusually large swings in private inventories and imports, as well as a drop in federal expenditures. Some MAGA fans have argued that once you account for these misleading figures, the report signifies a healthy economy. Murphy mostly disagrees, and shows why the report--taken at face value--does indeed signify poor economic performance. Peter St. Onge, "GDP Goes Negative. And it's Glorious.": Mises.org/HAP499aThe GDP Report: Mises.org/HAP499bHuman Action Podcast on Unpacking Trumps Tariff Strategy: Mises.org/HAP499cBob's Mises Daily Article, "Inventories Don't Kill Growth — People Kill Growth": Mises.org/HAP499dBob's Article, "Sorry MAGA, the GDP Report Is Not Rosy": Mises.org/HAP499eThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

It's ... Indicators of the Week! Our weekly look at some of the most fascinating economic numbers from the news. On today's episode: China bulks up for a financial chill, how much Americans should save for a rainy day, and the price of used cars goes up.Related episodes:America's small GDP bump, China's big stimulus dispersal, and a Monkey King (Apple / Spotify)How nonprofits get cash from your clunker (Apple / Spotify)IRS information sharing, bonds bust, and a chorebot future (Apple / Spotify)For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org.Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter. Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump's tariffs are now taking its toll on the Chinese economy, bank report a profit drop of 1 billion in the first quarter. Chinese companies are now moving to the US. The GDP numbers that were reported do not show the true picture, next quarter everything will adjust and the US will be coming out of the recession that Biden created. The [DS] is losing every step of the way, the more they try to defend the indefensible the worse it gets. The people are waking up and the country is becoming unified. When we vote in the midterms and we take control of the house and senate Trump and We The People will have the power we need to cast out the [DS] players. Market [9] confirmed, justice is coming, Panic in DC.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Economy https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/1919727595836604436   States Chinese Companies Are Moving Their Manufacturing to the U.S. in Order to Avoid Trump's Tariffs (DCNF)—A growing wave of Chinese manufacturers are packing up and moving to the United States under the weight of President Donald Trump's tariffs on Chinese goods. “The United States accounts for nearly 95% of our orders. It's not a market we can afford to lose,” Ryan Zhou, who runs a novelty gift business in eastern China, said, as reported by the SCMP. Zhou is opening a new facility in Dallas next month as a result of a 90% tariff on Chinese shipments to the United States. Zhu Ning, a consultant who advises Chinese firms on overseas expansion, says he's handled more than 100 relocation inquiries in the last four months alone, a level of interest that was unheard of before Trump's tariffs kicked in, per the SCMP. These are not American companies coming back, but they are Chinese companies coming in to the United States for the first time. For years, they undercut American workers by exploiting loopholes and subsidies, leading to an influx of cheap goods and synthetic goods. Now they are scrambling to stay afloat. Now, Chinese petrochemical firms are starting to plant roots in the United States. Ye Yingmin, the founder of a chemical consulting firm in Beijing, says the United States has become a hotbed of interest for Chinese investment. “We're seeing Chinese firms preparing to invest heavily in places like Texas,” Ye told the SCMP.  Source: libertdaily.com https://twitter.com/IanJaeger29/status/1919452951984087307 What Recession: Goldman Now Expects Q2 GDP To Surge To 2.4%   We didn't have long to wait, and with most banks now quietly revising their economic estimates higher - certainly far more quietly than they were to declare that a recession is imminent - overnight Goldman became the flagbearer (bearing the white flag that is), when Hatzius published a report in which he now anticipates Q2 surging to 2.4% from -0.3%, which would make it higher than the average GDP print reported  since the start of 2022. Not only that, but when discussing the -0.3% GDP print for Q1, Goldman said that "inventory investment was significantly understated, which means that GDP was significantly understated too." In short, Q1 GDP will be revised positive, and Q2 could push to 3% or higher! Q1 GDP printed at -0.3% annualized, but frontloading of imports probably significantly understates this number. In theory, frontloading should be neutral because it boosts imports (which enter the calculation of expenditure-side GDP negatively) but raises consumer spending, business fixed investment, and inventory investment (which all enter positively) by an equal ...

On Legal Docket, contradicting laws and election voting maps; on Moneybeat, David Bahnsen decodes GDP; and on History Book, Germany's unconditional surrender and the victory in Europe. Plus, the Monday morning newsSupport The World and Everything in It today at wng.org/donateAdditional support comes from Asbury University, where summer for teens can be an epic adventure. asbury.edu/campsAnd from The Joshua Program at St. Dunstan's Academy in Virginia ... a gap year shaping young men ... through trades, farming, prayer ... stdunstansacademy.org

On Thursday's Mark Levin Show, WJNO's Brian Mudd fills in for Mark. President Trump nominated former National Security Adviser Mike Waltz as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. Waltz began the day as NSA, but the sudden nomination raises questions about whether it was planned or a reaction to an event. The move might be tied to the March Signal app incident, though if part of a broader strategy, naming Secretary of State Marco Rubio as interim NSA seems unusual. Either way, with Senate confirmation looming, Republicans must stand firm to ensure Waltz's appointment to the UN. Also, despite what the media is saying, the economy had a great first quarter. The Democrats are trying everything they can to scare you; all they have is fear. The only thing that led to a negative GDP number was imports. Later, the left's plan for Trump was always lawfare, but Trump knows how to play their lawfare game now. Trump won most of the nationwide injunctions the first time around and he's learned all the lessons. Finally, in St. Isidore of Seville Catholic Virtual School v. Drummond, the Supreme Court considered whether the proposed Catholic virtual charter school in Oklahoma could operate as the nation's first publicly funded religious charter school. The Supreme Court must rule in favor of this charter school. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices