Podcasts about gdp

The Fed just admitted inflation is spiraling out of control while refusing to do the one thing that actually works—raise rates—and Powell is banking on hope and fantasy to save the economy, but here's why today's gold selloff is the buying opportunity of a lifetime.- This episode is sponsored by InvestingPRO. Get 55% o

Jason Ware reacts to the FOMC's decision to leave rates unchanged and the Fed's changing economic projections. President Trump's tariff policies and war with Iran have both disrupted the Fed's normal abilities, he says, as they become caught between their dual mandates. While he expects volatility in the near-term, he's still bullish for the year and expects GDP of around 2%. Jason shares multiple stock picks he says have “growth at a reasonable price” including Lockheed Martin (LMT), Salesforce (CRM), Visa (V) and more.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Mexico City is Mexico's most important city. Today the greater metropolitan area is home to 23 million people, over 17% of the country's entire population. Economically, it is the powerhouse - contributing a quarter of Mexico's GDP. All of the biggest companies are based there. The place is also famously built on top of a lakebed. A sinking lakebed. Sinking maybe an overall average of 35 to 50 centimeters per year. In this video, we look at Mexico City's land subsidence issues and how they came about.

Welcome back to another episode of Money Moves. This week, hosts Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell unpack a wild week of market data, geopolitical tension, and shifting economic policies.Episode HighlightsOil & Geopolitics: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil prices swinging from $85 up to $106. Ryan shares why a conflict resolution could drive energy costs down and push the S&P 500 to new highs.Economic Realities: PPI landed around 2.4% while GDP dipped to 0.7%. We also examine the staggering 104 million Americans currently outside the labor force.Powell's Farewell: Ahead of Jerome Powell's final FOMC speech before his May exit, the guys discuss the likelihood of a rate pause and what it means for the market.Crypto Momentum: Bitcoin saw a 10% relief rally, pushing it near $74.5k. Plus, a look at the delayed Clarity Act and what it means for the future of bank and crypto integration.The Real Estate Squeeze: With the income required to buy a median home hitting $111,000, renting is now significantly cheaper. The episode also covers a new Senate bill aimed at banning investors from buying single-family homes.Commercial Debt Wall: Over $875 billion in commercial mortgages are maturing this year, signaling major potential headwinds ahead.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text  "XRAY" to 844-447-1555

Exploring Bogus oil prices Hold cow – look at what Gemini and JSD can do… Markets needed good news – Correlation high Fed on hold? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter   Warm-Up - Bogus Oil Prices - Look at what Gemini and JSD can do... - Markets needed good news - Correlation high - Fed on hold? - JCD LIMERICK! Markets - Did we just correct? - Inflation - Eco that matters - Manipulation in Oil - Land? John Dvorak Jr. - Guest  - UPDATE ON JCD - AH Spoke with JCD Saturday.... Oil Prices - Bogus? - The price of oil in the middle east is at $140 for its land-locked price, but ocean traveling oil is at $100. - Sort, of, opposite of what you'd expect? - But, then there's been active conversation and warning about manipulating oil futures to manage the situation. - Oil in Backwardation across the spectrum. (Current price of oil contract is $95 and December contract is $75) Oil Prices may be BOGUS - But What About Gas? Gas Prices More Manipulation - The Trump administration has discussed trading in the oil futures market as a strategy to help curb surging crude prices amid the war in Iran, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said. - US would just sell future contracts and then deliver at those prices at the end of the contract date. (SPR/Venezuela?) - Not sure how markets will take an intervention like that. - Remember when short selling was banned on Financials back in the 2008 ----Stock prices continued to fall during the ban and tended to stabilize only after it was lifted, suggesting the ban did not stop the decline. ------ Seems that when government intervenes in free markets they can set off more panic as the optics make it look even worse. ---- AND- Russian Oil sanctions partially removed Inflation and ECO - PCE Prices stay elevated - GDP rose at a seasonally and inflation-adjusted annual rate of just 0.7% in the fourth quarter, according to a Commerce Department revision Friday. - The first revision of the GDP reading was a sharp step down from the previous estimate of 1.4% and well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast for 1.5%. - The core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January and 3.1% on a 12-month basis. The ex-food and energy reading was 0.1 percentage point higher than December. Eco Table Oil Models...Very Cool - JSD - Explain - https://gemini.google.com/share/d1427a61a804 Department of Defense, err War, is hiring - The Pentagon is hiring financial 'defense', or is that a financial warfare unit? - This may mean we're beginning to really adopt "Unrestricted Warfare (???) ----- ie: The Chinese strategy where the warfare model is extended to include social engineering, illicit trade, and finance operations. - Isn't this already in play? Tariffs, Straits of Hormuz, Asset Seizure (Russian Yachts), Venezuelan Oil???? --- This is why Quantum is in play too...(offense and defense) Did you know? - 30% of Helium production comes from Qatar - Qatar helium production stopped back on March 2nd, and is ~30% of all helium globally - South Korea depends almost entirely on helium from the strait of Hormuz, with 65% from Qatar specifically -  Semiconductor manufacturing - - Wafer/equipment cooling — High thermal conductivity removes heat fast during lithography, etching, deposition, and other steps; critical for precise temp control and smaller chip nodes (no good substitutes). - - Inert purging & atmospheres — Chemically inert; flushes systems, prevents unwanted reactions in annealing, deposition, or vacuum chambers. -- - Plasma processes — Acts as carrier, diluent, or purge gas in plasma etching for precise circuit patterning. - - Leak detection — Tiny atoms detect micro-leaks in tools, pipelines, and vacuum systems to ensure reliability. - - Backside wafer cooling — Delivers stable cooling to silicon wafers in advanced fabs. INDIA! Running out of Gas - Does it matter? - India maintains only a 25 day reserve of oil - Good news for them that they use coal for electricity generation, and only use oil for transportation - BUT BUT BUT, What about getting goods from one place to another in India? -- FWIW - coal prices up 19% YTD in India Back to this... - AI not causing job losses - WHAT ABOUT META? - Meta's stock climbed after Reuters reported the social media giant is planning to lay off over 20% of its 79,000 employees to balance AI-related spending. Drone Warfare - New Warfare fought like games - Ender's Game Movie - Length: 3.5 meters (about 11.5 feet) Wingspan: 2.5 meters (about 8.2 feet) Weight (total takeoff/mass): Approximately 200 kg (around 440 pounds) Warhead/payload: Typically 40–50 kg explosive (some variants up to 90 kg with reduced fuel/range) --- Usage ~ 2,000 per day in Iran an peak of 10,000 per day in Ukraine/Russia Gaming Industry - DOA? See above - no wonder why - it is IRL now - Q1 continues sharp decline in video game sales - Older gamers: new AAA titles heavily cannibalized by old games - Gen Z & Alpha mostly play only Roblox (144M DAU), Fortnite (60M DAU), or Minecraft (11M DAU) - Young gamers rarely buy new AAA titles or consoles - Industry “growth” driven purely by subscriptions & upsells — no real sales increase - Hardware far below peaks: PS2 sold 160M, Nintendo DS 154M vs Switch 2 only 17M (original Switch lifetime 114M) - AI failing to cut costs for big studios — Roblox capturing all the upside - Roblox launches Incubator & Jumpstart programs for kids using AI “vibe-coding” to chase millionaire status INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Target Earnings - Target posted another quarter of falling revenue and customer traffic at its stores, though its shares rose as the retailer's earnings beat estimates and it said it is poised to end its sales slump. -  Earnings per share: $2.44 adjusted vs. $2.16 expected - Revenue: $30.45 billion vs. $30.48 billion expected - Target said it expects full-year adjusted earnings per share to range from $7.50 to $8.50. Its adjusted earnings per share for the most recent full year were $7.57. - Shares up 7% in a piss poor tape     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for CATERPILLAR Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS There is a tech pundit whose name be John, Whose sharp takes went late into dawn. He hit pause for some care, But with grit (and repair), Soon he'll be back oh so steady and strong. See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff break down the most pressing financial topics shaping markets and personal finance decisions right now. We open with an analysis of current selling pressure and what it signals for equity markets, then dive deep into why credit spreads deserve your attention as a leading indicator of risk. We make the case for why waiting for S&P 6,900 could cost you opportunity, and offer a teaser on the growing private credit space. From there, we tackle real estate investment trusts and AG&C — examining whether current valuations finally make them worth buying. We discuss disciplined profit-taking strategies, the relationship between oil prices and airline ticket costs, and identify which companies are most likely to mishandle AI implementation and what that means for investors. On the retirement and income planning side, we cover home equity conversion mortgages and reverse mortgages, annuities with long-term care riders, and whether private equity offerings inside 401(k) plans make sense for individual investors. We also examine target date funds and how they fit into a broader retirement strategy. We round out the episode with a discussion of GDP calculation methodology, asset tokenization and stablecoins, hedging techniques for isolating individual stock exposure, and key lessons from William Bernstein's philosophy on knowing when to stop taking risk. We close with a framework for balancing active versus passive investing, risk management principles, and a look at the three high-quality stocks Charlie Munger consistently championed. Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, Danny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer 0:00 - INTRO 0:59 - Selling Pressure Remains 2:57 - Pay Attention to Credit Spreads 5:21 - Don't Wait for 6,900 11:46 - Private Credit Teaser 13:07 - Thoughts on REIT's & AG&C: Is it Time to Buy? 15:12 - What is Your Method for Taking Profits? 19:15 - The Price of Oil & Airline Tickets 22:49 - Which Companies Will Screw Up AI Implementation? 26:42 - Home Equity Conversions - Reverse Mortgages 29:59 - Annuities w LTC Riders 31:29 - How is GDP Calculated? 32:40 - Asset Tokenization & StableCoin 34:36 - Isolating Stocks by Hedging 35:35 - William Bernstein - Quit Playing 38:52 - Active vs Passive Investing & Risk Management 42:42 - Charlie Munger's 3 High-quality Stocks 46:28 - Are Target Date Funds a Good Option? 47:17 - Private Equity Offerings in 401k? ------- Register for our next Candid Coffee, 3/21/26, and Ask Us Anything: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/events/ask-us-anything/ ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: ------- Watch our previous show, "Fixing Your Broken Emergency Fund," https://youtube.com/live/3x6MbhEYpcU?feature=share ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Private Credit Stress: Will The Fed Backstop Exuberance Again?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/private-credit-stress-will-the-fed-backstop-excuberance-again/ "USD Stable Coins And The Rebasement Of The US Dollar" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/usd-stable-coins-and-the-rebasement-of-the-us-dollar/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Rebalance Now Before the Rally Fades" is here: https://youtu.be/yAmYkDUWWW4 ------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #PreMarket #StockMarketToday #PortfolioRebalancing #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy #InvestingStrategy #RetirementPlanning #MarketOutlook #PersonalFinance #WealthManagement

Jeffrey Cleveland says the bullish shift in GDP projections is his biggest takeaway from today's FOMC meeting as the Fed left rates unchanged. He thinks they're “pretty content” with the state of the labor market, and while they've upped their inflation expectations for the year, the next two are about the same. He anticipates one cut this year and thinks rates will end the year around 4.8%. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

At a time of record losses in farming, red-state governments are destroying farmland with solar, wind, carbon capture, data centers, Section 8 overdevelopment, and everything other than what land should be used for.  I also discuss how the dumb housing bill and HUD's obsession with housing supply will culturally gerrymander red states. I'm joined by Indiana state Rep. Andrew Ireland (R), the youngest and most conservative member of the Indiana legislature, who is waging a battle against the forces of special interests gobbling up Indiana's land. He explains how state Republicans have turned the land into a parking lot for special interests because they prioritize fake GDP numbers over authentic quality of life. We also discuss other challenges to red states like Indiana, such as Republicans lacking the will to combat blue cities, crime, and illegal immigration.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, has given his generals and admirals an unusual command: spend money. Lots of it. Quickly. For years, it was the other way around. Canada wore the uniform of a serious NATO ally – while undershooting the alliance's 2% of GDP defence spending target. Now, spurred by what Carney has called a “rupture” in geopolitics, Ottawa is adding billions to hit NATO's target by 31 March 2026 – the end of the fiscal year. Military leaders are scrambling to reverse a culture of frugality and long planning cycles. Parliament's budget watchdog has said the Department of National Defence sometimes struggles to spend the funds it already has. The Conservative defence critic has said the new billions are money “the department won't be able to shovel out the door.” Neal Razzell follows the money to see what changes — and what doesn't — when a military tries to expand at speed. In Quebec, at Canada's main basic training base, he watches the rebuild begin — as recruits and instructors grapple with the limits of time, staff and space. In British Columbia, at the Navy's Pacific headquarters, he asks the commander of Maritime Forces Pacific what “spend fast” can actually fix in a fleet Carney says is less than half operational.This episode of The Documentary comes to you from Assignment, investigations and journeys into the heart of global events.

It's Tuesday, March 17th, A.D. 2026. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Kevin Swanson and Timothy Reed Cuba is on verge of collapse Cuba, a communist country in the Western Hemisphere, is on the verge of collapse. Oil shipments to the island nation stopped three months ago and the nation's electric grid gave out over the weekend. Plus, the country's Gross Domestic Product, the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country's borders, slipped another 5% last year.  According to the United Nation's Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, communist Cuba has the worst GDP/capita in Latin America — barely reaching $1,000 per year. The worst economies in Latin America are communist Venezuela, communist Nicaragua, communist Cuba, and Haiti.  Cuba is ripest nation for spiritual revival Despite the economic doom and gloom, Cuba appears to be the ripest for spiritual revival of any nation in the world today.   The Baptists have reported a 40-fold increase in the number of churches since 1990.  One estimate puts the total number of Cuban believers at two million. That's about 20% of the population -- higher than membership in the communist party for the country. In Matthew 16:18, Jesus promised that “He would build His church, and the gates of Hades shall not prevail against it.” 47% of Americans oppose the U.S.-Iranian war Americans continue to have mixed opinions about the Iran conflict. New polling averages, from Real Clear Politics, found that 44% of Americans support the war, while 47% oppose the fight.  Similarly, a Quinnipiac poll found that only 40% of Americans favor the war, with 53% in opposition. A whopping 74% of Americans are opposed to sending ground troops into the war, something the Trump administration has not ruled out.  Court allows naked men in women's spa The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has let stand a lower court ruling requiring a private spa, intended for women, to allow naked men to frequent the premises. The Washington State spa owners insisted this policy would be contrary to their Christian beliefs.  Thus far, at least five judges have filed dissents on the decision. 19% of employees at U.S. companies are foreign workers American corporations are hiring foreign workers like never before, recent numbers indicate 19.2% of their employees are foreign workers, up from 12% twenty years ago.  Another 10% of the U.S. workforce is also provided for by digital offshoring by organizations like Upwork. That makes almost a third of the U.S. workforce now provided for by foreigners. Pastor: If you're a Christian, don't live in sin with someone Megachurch pastor Josh Howerton of LakePointe Church in Dallas, Texas, challenged Christian couples to stop living in sin. HOWERTON: “The Bible is going to say things about marriage, sexuality and divorce that are very controversial to the world. My response to that is: ‘To who?' Because what the world says about marriage is controversial to Heaven. I would rather Heaven be pleased and the world say we're controversial than be applauded by the world and controversial before Heaven.” Pastor Howerton concluded his sermon with this challenge. HOWERTON: “You're living with somebody that's not your spouse. You're sleeping with somebody that's not your spouse. Or you've actually already started a family and had kids with somebody that's not your spouse. “And you, right now, are coming under the loving conviction of the Holy Spirit that you need to honor God, bend your knee to Jesus, put a ring on it, and enter into a covenant with a person that you're already acting like you're in a covenant with. “What I want you to know is we want to help you do that, because we got a little thing at Lakepoint. We say, ‘The only time we look down on people is to give them a hand up.' “So, here's what we want to do. We got a whole team of pastors. We are ready to have a mass wedding ceremony. I'm 100% serious. We got people. We're gonna walk with you, counsel you, help you, and then we're gonna get you married. We're gonna throw a big party. “And guess what? Your church family is not going to be doing. These people aren't going to be judging you. They're going to be cheering you on as you step forward into obedience to Jesus Christ.” Remarkably, following the sermon, 52 couples came forward and were married at the church a couple of weeks later. Isaiah 1:18 says, “Come now, and let us reason together, says the LORD. ‘Though your sins are like scarlet, they shall be as white as snow; Though they are red like crimson, they shall be as wool.'” Tennessee bill to abolish abortion died in committee A bill before the Tennessee State legislature that would have fully banned abortion was killed in the legislature's Health Subcommittee last week, reports the Nashville Banner. The bill would have criminalized abortion and given equal protection to the unborn under the law. However, the measure was actively opposed by both pro-abortion and pro-life groups, who argued the law was too strict.  Bradley Pierce, president of the Foundation to Abolish Abortion, stated, “I don't think it's merciful to tell women that they're allowed to murder their children. To those who say that having a blanket exemption for women is merciful, do you apply that to any other area of law?”  Similar bills have been introduced, both in Democratic and Republican states, and thus far, none have passed.  Proverbs 24:11 admonishes us to “Deliver those who are drawn toward death, and hold back those stumbling to the slaughter.” Christian apologist shares Christ on popular podcast Apologist Wes Huff clearly explained the Gospel of Jesus Christ to entrepreneur Steven Bartlett on Bartlett's “Diary of a CEO” podcast — among the top podcasts in the world. In fact, 3 million people listen per episode. BARTLETT: “If I sin in my life, do I go to hell?” HUFF:  “Here's the thing: everybody is going to hell. Everybody. The Bible is very clear. All good people go to Heaven, but Jesus said, ‘No one is good but God alone.' So, if all good people go to Heaven, and no one is good but God alone, only God is in Heaven.” BARTLETT: “Mmm.” HUFF:  “So, Christianity says you're not going to be able to do, feel or think good enough. Compared to God, you're always going to fall short. Be perfect as your Father in Heaven is perfect, is what Scripture says. That's an impossible standard. “The message of the Bible, the reason why it's called the Gospel, the Good News, is because of the bad news. The bad news is you're dead in your sins and trespasses and you can't save yourself. Jesus, as the second Person of the Trinity, steps off of His throne in eternity, comes into humanity, and He pays the penalty of the sin that you deserve.” Romans 3:23 gives us the bad news. “For all have sinned and fall short of the glory of God.” And Romans 5:8 gives us the Good News. "But God demonstrates His own love for us in this: While we were still sinners, Christ died for us." Oscars awarded to foul-mouthed, immoral R-rated movies And finally, the 98th Academy Award ceremonies awarded more R-rated movies with top prizes again this year. One Battle After Another, starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, took the Best Picture award — a film celebrating revolution, killing ICE agents, and murdering pro-life legislators.  It played with moral ambiguity and satire, while encouraging revolutionary activity in society. Sadly, the film, which features the most obscene word 135 times and the Lord's name used in vain 20 times, garnered six Oscars. Another R-rated movie, Sinners, collected four more Oscars. The film glorified demonism, African animism, murderers, adulterers, and hoodoo witches, while condemning Christianity for its alleged legalism and white oppression. Sinners features the Lord's name taken in vain 11 times. I John 2:15-17 says, “Do not love the world or anything in the world. If anyone loves the world, love for the Father is not in them. For everything in the world—the lust of the flesh, the lust of the eyes, and the pride of life—comes not from the Father, but from the world.  The world and its desires pass away, but whoever does the will of God lives forever.” Close And that's The Worldview on this Tuesday, March 17th, in the year of our Lord 2026. Follow us on X or subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com.  Plus, you can get the Generations app through Google Play or The App Store. I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

The economy is sending completely mixed signals right now.GDP is growing.Unemployment is low.The stock market is near highs.…but people feel worse than ever.So what's actually happening?In this episode of Worth Knowing, I sit down with Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi to break down the 5 biggest economic risks that could shape the next 6 months—and possibly the next election.We cover:Why the economy feels broken even when the data looks “fine”Whether we're quietly heading toward a recessionThe real impact of oil prices and global instabilityWhy inflation won't go awayAnd how AI could reshape jobs faster than expectedIf you've been feeling like something doesn't add up with the economy… you're not wrong.

影片中粗略地提到伊朗在 1970 年代中的經濟危機，以及為何今時今日難以在短時間內，透過軍事介入改變政制，我想再深入剖析。一切由 1973 年石油危機開始。當時作為油組國（OPEC）的主要成員，伊朗坐擁大筆石油美元。國王巴列維（Mohammad Reza Pahlavi）乘勢推行現代化計劃，史稱為「白色革命」，內容涵蓋土地改革、工業化、城市化，以及教育普及。德黑蘭（Tehran）北部開始呈現出歐洲富裕城市的面貌，西方時裝、豪華酒店和世界主義的中產階級紛紛湧現。與此同時，數以十萬計農村人口湧入城市，速度遠超經濟的吸納能力。伊朗政府亦支出超越生產力，通貨膨脹一發不可收拾。石油繁榮帶來我利益分配極度不均，集中在德黑蘭的精英階層和圍繞國王宮廷的官僚體系，而農村社區和城市貧民的購買力卻不斷被侵蝕。傳統上是伊朗商業命脈的巴扎（bazaar）商人，更因為國王偏袒西方企業和國有機構而感到備受擠壓。在繁榮年代所承擔的龐大支出承諾，建立在油價長期高企的假設之上。當國際油價見頂，經濟驟然降溫，失業率上升。繁榮年代激起的民眾期望，與日常生活的殘酷現實之間的落差，成為廣泛社會怨憤的根源。這也是霍梅尼（Ayatollah Khomeini）運動的背景。正如 Jean-Baptiste Say 與 Charles Kindleberger 等經濟學家所觀察的，革命很少在絕對貧困中誕生，而是在一個社會期望不斷上升與經濟增長遇到突如其來的失速；這是也 1978年的伊朗。革命的主要力量，並非德黑蘭的世俗自由派知識分子，而是流離失所的農村移民、城市失業貧民，以及巴扎商人階層當中感到現代化計劃不利自己的小商人和工匠。霍梅尼的訊息不只是神學上的，更是一個再分配的承諾：將國王和美國的石油財富，將歸還人民，而西方文化帶來的影響也要逆轉。當時冷戰背景同樣不可忽略。蘇聯（Soviet Union）在發展中國家扶植策劃顛覆性，而伊朗左翼也為革命聯盟提供了重要的早期動力。但最終還是經濟周期、城鄉撕裂、利益分配不均等，令足夠伊朗民眾對革命訊息產生共鳴。1979 年之後，雖然「掃盲運動組織」（Literacy Movement Organisation）也有將教育推向農村，甚至包括不少巴列維時代所忽視的偏遠村落；2021 年，城鄉識字率差距已收窄至約十一個百分點。然而，掃盲不代表民眾能夠獲有助於有效政治參與的優質教育、批判思維和公民知識。更深層的鴻溝，體現在社會上流動的機會。目前，伊朗教育資源仍然傾斜到德黑蘭和少數幾個大城市。來自鄉郊的學生，得到的教育機會與德黑蘭北部富人集中地區的學生仍是天淵之別。結果是邊陲地區的大量人口，思想仍然停留在部落和宗教。財富差距更令情況雪上加霜。伊朗收入最高的一成人口，掌握逾半的全國收入，集中程度超過美國。德黑蘭北部的豪宅區樓價高不可攀；普通工人需要一百年以上的全部積蓄才能購置一套房子，而豪宅卻在首都北部山麓不斷增加。教師和護士的月薪約為二百美元。貨幣在制裁壓力下多次崩潰，將中產階層的積蓄一掃而空。2023年，伊朗約三成人口生活在貧困線以下。伊朗最腐敗的是「伊斯蘭武裝革命衛隊」（IRGC）；最初這是一支民兵，如今已成為伊朗社會的主導經濟力量，通過控制建築、石油、電訊、銀行和房地產等領域的附屬機構，掌握伊朗過半的 GDP。這不但是政權賴以存續的副產品，更是其運作核心。軍人對伊斯蘭共和國的忠誠，不是出於意識形態，而是切身利益。任何威脅到武裝革命衛隊經濟利益的政治轉型和異見人士，都將遇到鎮壓。認為軍事介入可以改造伊朗的人，可能將日本和德國二戰後的轉型作為例證的歷史比較，但這是錯誤類比。日本和德國在軍國主義和納粹主義崛起之前，以當時標準已是相當現代化的社會，擁有發達的法律制度、受過良好教育的城市人口和運作中的公民社會。盟軍佔領所要做的，是移除一個相對後期出現的異常狀態，讓原本已存在的基礎得以重新發揮作用。伊朗並沒有一個扎實的現代社會基礎，而 1979 年的革命，更打斷了一個本來成功的現代化進程；當時所發生的事，正好是當時不完整的現代化進程的倒退。伊朗制度上的落後，是從革命的第一刻起便刻意設計出來，以為維持社會撕裂以方便統治的結構。當少數精英要統治大量仍以部落、宗派和自給自足框架組織的人口，再加上種族之間的嚴重撕裂，唯一手段便是強權高壓和宗教（式）的催眠手段。要改變伊朗，最少要要好幾代人在教育、經濟發展和公民文化方面的發展，也不是任何外國勢力能夠完成的工作。了解伊朗的情況，或許也可以讓我們更了解自己身處的社會問題。問：親北京小粉紅、藍朋友等觀察者對這場戰爭的解讀，存在什麼根本性的錯誤？ 答：核心謬誤在於將地緣政治敘事與經濟現實混為一談。美國或許打不贏，但不代表中國可從中得益。全球能源成本上升會直接衝擊依賴出口的中國製造業，壓縮中國貿易夥伴的消費力，亦會觸發全球資金的風險規避情緒。東升西降的思維，預設了國際經濟是一個零和遊戲，但現實中，全球經濟放緩，所有人都是會有一定的代價。問：戰爭對作戰國的長遠經濟影響有多大？ 答：根據美國 Northwestern University Kellog School of Management 對 1946 至 2023年間 135 場戰爭的研究，戰爭平均導致作戰國的實質GDP下跌約13%，且十年後仍未見完全復原。投資平均跌14%，家庭消費跌11%，出口跌13%；戰後十年的累計物價漲幅平均達62%。代價遠超直接軍費開支。問：以色列作為軍事上的主動方，付出了什麼經濟代價？ 答：以色列銀行估計，自 2023 年 10 月 7 日至今，戰爭總經濟代價約 1120 億美元，相當於其 GDP 的 14 至 15%；今次伊朗戰役每天耗費接近10億美元，2026年國防開支已達約500億美元，佔GDP的8%，較戰前的4.5%幾乎翻倍。政府債務對GDP比率則由戰前約50%，三年間急升至70%。外來直接投資連續下跌，三大信貸評級機構均曾下調其評級。 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit leesimon.substack.com/subscribe

Over the past decade, the Canadian economy has been driven largely by consumption and government spending, while business investment has remained relatively flat. To accelerate Canada's economic growth, an objective emphasized by Prime Minister Mark Carney, Canada will need stronger business investment, particularly investments with the “one-two punch” of growing the economy through increased capital spending in the early years and greater exports in the longer term. To explore the historical drivers of GDP and what expanded export capacity could mean for Canada's economy, Mark Parsons, Vice President and Chief Economist at ATB Financial, joins Jackie and Peter on the podcast. The discussion ends with answering the question: What would an additional 1.5 million barrels per day of oil pipeline export capacity, including a West Coast pipeline to Asia and other expansion projects, mean for Canada's gross domestic product (GDP) growth and jobs outlook over the next decade? Studio.Energy and ATB have collaborated on a series of reports examining Canada's GDP and the potential economic impact of increased oil export capacity. The series also includes background articles explaining how GDP is calculated and historical trends. These articles are available on both the Studio.Energy and ATB websites (see links below). Content referenced in this podcast:Peter Tertzakian's op-ed in The Hub.ca: The next act in the oil crisis: Time to get ready for rationing and hoarding? (March 13, 2026)  Seeking Shelter: Iran and the Next Structural Shift in Global Oil Markets (March 9, 2026) Studio.Energy reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines:  The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) Canada's GDP Dilemma: The Illusion of Growth (March 5, 2026) Other background reports on GDP: Canada's Economy Under Siege (January 30, 2026) and What is GDP, Really? (February 5, 2026) Report on what has been driving Canadian GDP, highlighting both the factors ATB Reports on Canadian GDP and pipelines: The GDP Payoff of Additional Oil Pipeline Capacity (March 18, 2026) See all GDP reports at: Special Reports | ATB Financial Background report on productivity and the importance of the oil and gas sector, “Productive diversification: Maintaining Alberta's productivity edge”  (August 2024) Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Re

Let's talk about plummeting GDP in the US....

We look at what China's latest “Two Sessions” reveal about the direction of the world's second-largest economy. With Beijing setting its lowest GDP growth target since 1991, the focus appears to be shifting from rapid expansion to stability in an increasingly uncertain global economy. We explore what that means for businesses, investors and young people trying to find work in China today.If you'd like to get in touch with the team, our email address is businessdaily@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Rahul Tandon Producer: David CannBusiness Daily is the home of in-depth audio journalism devoted to the world of money and work. From small startup stories to big corporate takeovers, global economic shifts to trends in technology, we look at the key figures, ideas and events shaping business.Each episode is a 17-minute, daily deep dive into a single topic, featuring expert analysis and the people at the heart of the story.Recent episodes explore the weight-loss drug revolution, the growth in AI, the cost of living, why bond markets are so powerful, China's property bubble, and Gen Z's experience of the current job market.We also feature in-depth interviews with company founders and some of the world's most prominent CEOs. These include Google's Sundar Pichai, Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, and the CEO of Canva, Melanie Perkins.(Picture: Chinese President Xi Jinping, centre right, and Premier Li Qiang, centre left, arrive at the closing session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on the 12th of March 2026 in Beijing, China. Credit: Getty Images)

The economy is sending mixed signals, and for real estate investors, understanding what's driving the uncertainty is critical to making the right moves. In this update, we break down the latest market indicators — from February's job losses and a softening GDP, to oil prices surging past $100 a barrel due to the conflict in Iran. We also examine the private credit stress emerging at major institutions like BlackRock and Goldman, and what it could mean for the broader market. So, what does this mean for investors? With interest rates staying higher for longer and distressed assets beginning to surface, the market is creating selective opportunities for those with the right strategy and the discipline to act on them. The window for well-positioned investors isn't closing — it may just be opening. This video takes a closer look at why uncertainty doesn't have to mean inaction, and how a conservative, value-driven approach can turn today's market conditions into tomorrow's returns. Join Our Investor Club: https://bit.ly/4butXSu

This week on History's Greatest Idiots (featuring Patreon member Ben Markwart), we explore the Chernobyl nuclear disaster: the catastrophic 1986 explosion that killed dozens, displaced 350,000 people, cost 700 billion dollars, and helped collapse the Soviet Union.The Safety Test That Wasn't Very SafeOn 26th April 1986 at 1:23 AM, Reactor 4 at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant near Pripyat, Ukraine, exploded during a safety test. Engineers disabled the emergency core cooling system, ran the RBMK reactor at just 7% power (unstable below 20%), and withdrew most control rods. Within seconds, power surged to over 100 times normal output. Two explosions blew the 2,000 ton reactor lid off and ignited the graphite moderator, which burned for nine days, releasing massive radioactive contamination across Europe.The RBMK Reactor DesignThe Soviet RBMK reactor had catastrophic design flaws operators weren't informed about. It featured a positive void coefficient (coolant loss increased power), control rods with graphite tips that briefly increased reactivity when inserted, and no Western-style containment building. Deputy Chief Engineer Anatoly Diatlov, in charge during the accident, genuinely believed the reactor was safe.The Cover-up and Sweden's DiscoveryFor 36 hours, Soviet officials said nothing whilst Pripyat's 50,000 residents went about their normal lives at radiation levels 600,000 times background levels. On 28th April, radiation alarms triggered at Sweden's Forsmark Nuclear Power Plant, over 1,000 kilometres away. Only after Swedish authorities announced a Soviet nuclear accident did the USSR reluctantly admit to Chernobyl. Gorbachev didn't issue a statement until 14th May, 18 days later, calling it a "misfortune" and attacking Western media as spreading "malicious lies."The LiquidatorsFirst responders weren't told they were confronting an exposed reactor core. Firefighters handled radioactive graphite with ordinary equipment. 28 died within four months from acute radiation syndrome. Firefighter Vasily Ignatenko, aged 25, received 1,300 rem and died on 13th May 1986. About 600,000 liquidators cleaned up the site. Called "bio-robots," they shovelled radioactive debris from the roof in 40-second shifts because robots were destroyed by radiation. At least 1,800 children developed thyroid cancer from radioactive iodine-131.How Chernobyl Collapsed the Soviet UnionGorbachev later stated Chernobyl was "perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union," more than perestroika, glasnost, Afghanistan, or the Berlin Wall. The disaster shattered public trust, contradicting glasnost's promise of openness. Combined with Afghanistan casualties (15,000 troops), economic stagnation (2.6% GDP growth), and military spending (16% of GNP), Chernobyl's 18 billion rouble cost broke the system. The Berlin Wall fell in November 1989. The USSR dissolved in December 1991, less than six years after Chernobyl.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.patreon.com/HistorysGreatestIdiots⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/historysgreatestidiots⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://buymeacoffee.com/historysgreatestidiots⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Artist: Sarah Chey⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.fiverr.com/sarahchey⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify⁠⁠Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on AppleIn this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered• Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen's framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen's concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap techTimestamps00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI's deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

Economic growth is slowing, but inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve's target. In this episode, Kathy Fettke breaks down the latest data from the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, along with a sharp downward revision to U.S. GDP growth. Stocks rallied after the report came in largely as expected, but economists say the mixed signals create a complicated outlook for the Federal Reserve and interest rates. We'll also look at how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation in the months ahead—and what it could mean for mortgage rates and real estate investors.

Gold falls as war drives oil higher, but Peter Schiff says stagflation, deficits, and a weaker dollar are setting up gold's next major surge. Peter Schiff explains why the latest pullback in gold, silver, and mining stocks is not a sign that the bull market is over, but a temporary reaction to rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and a stronger dollar. He argues that markets are focusing too narrowly on delayed Fed rate cuts while missing the bigger picture: war-driven deficits, stubborn inflation, a weakening economy, and mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to eventually monetize even more debt. He also breaks down soft GDP growth, rising PCE inflation, weakness in housing, and what he sees as the widening gap between Trump's economic claims and the underlying data. Schiff's core thesis is that stagflation, war spending, and long-term dollar weakness remain strongly bullish for gold and silver, while the current selloff is creating another buying opportunity.

In this episode, Andrew shares his personal transformation—moving through trauma, addiction, and a deeply reactive identity shaped by his childhood and years working in the oil and gas industry. Through journaling, breath work, and hypnosis-based tools, he began rewiring old survival patterns and reclaiming his sense of choice and freedom.

Gold falls as war drives oil higher, but Peter Schiff says stagflation, deficits, and a weaker dollar are setting up gold's next major surge.Peter Schiff explains why the latest pullback in gold, silver, and mining stocks is not a sign that the bull market is over, but a temporary reaction to rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and a stronger dollar. He argues that markets are focusing too narrowly on delayed Fed rate cuts while missing the bigger picture: war-driven deficits, stubborn inflation, a weakening economy, and mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to eventually monetize even more debt.He also breaks down soft GDP growth, rising PCE inflation, weakness in housing, and what he sees as the widening gap between Trump's economic claims and the underlying data. Schiff's core thesis is that stagflation, war spending, and long-term dollar weakness remain strongly bullish for gold and silver, while the current selloff is creating another buying opportunity.Chapters:00:00 Metals Pullback Buy Zone02:00 Stocks Oil Rates Dollar05:07 War Deficits Bullish Gold09:51 Inflation Reality Check17:10 Housing Bubble Warning22:54 Lies or Delusion24:18 Economic Boom Claims25:15 War Fallout and Stagflation33:07 Gold Silver Big Picture37:56 Buy the Dip and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffGet more gold & silver now: https://www.schiffgold.com1-888-GOLD-160 (465-3160)Open a T Gold account: https://www.tgold.comOpen a managed account: https://europac.comListen to The Peter Schiff Show: https://schiffradio.comFollow the main channel: https://youtube.com/peterschiff#Gold #OilPrices #InflationOur Sponsors:* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/GOLD* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

GDP data released this week shows an economy that slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter of 2025 as inflation picked up. That's not a good sign now that oil prices have nearly doubled this year and job cuts continue. We discuss what this data says about the economy and what we're going as investors. Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Jason Moser discuss: - Q4 2025 GDP data - Uber's autonomous momentum - Adobe's earnings - Executive free agents - Stocks on our radar Companies discussed: Alphabet (GOOG), Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Boeing (BA), 3M (MMM), Netflix (NFLX), Globus Medical (GMED), Aerovironment (AVAV). Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Lou Whiteman, Jason Moser Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Senate passed a bipartisan bill yesterday that aims to take on housing affordability by increasing the housing supply and cutting red tape. But it has a tough road ahead in the House and possibly the White House. This morning, we'll dig in. Also on the show: GDP growth was revised down to just 0.7%. Plus, China's latest five-year plan aims to transform the country into a tech-driven global power, while boosting domestic demand.

Oil prices are surging as the conflict in Iran intensifies. To ease the pain at the pump, President Trump is tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Former Senior Economic Adviser Steve Moore joins The FOX Business Network's Gerri Willis to break down the administration's energy strategy and why he thinks we can see $2 gas in near future. Plus, the new GDP data showing a cooling U.S. economy.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40tWZg8 David Bahnsen reviews an eventful mid-March 2026 market backdrop through five themes: the Iran war and its impact on oil and volatility; the state of the economy after tariff changes; private credit; AI; and a rotation in market leadership. He notes large daily market swings driven by uncertainty, but limited net movement, and argues volatility is largely immaterial for disciplined investors. The key economic risk is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as insurers and shippers avoid the waterway, lifting oil from the low 80s toward the 90s and potentially above 100, which would meaningfully compress consumer and investment activity if sustained. He sees evidence of economic drag (weaker GDP revisions, modest job growth) alongside tariff-driven goods inflation offsetting services disinflation. He criticizes conflating private-credit default fears with liquidity issues and stresses idiosyncratic underwriting, recovery rates, and coming opportunity. He attributes AI weakness to valuation and fatigue while warning against treating the theme as monolithic. He highlights a rotation toward energy, utilities, staples, and industrials. 00:00 Friday Dividend Cafe Intro 01:07 Five Big Market Themes 02:25 Iran War and Volatility 04:19 Oil Shock and Strait Risk 07:45 Economy After Tariffs 10:02 Private Credit Fears 12:40 AI Valuations and Fatigue 14:34 Market Rotation Winners 15:27 Chart of the Week and Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Senate passed a bipartisan bill yesterday that aims to take on housing affordability by increasing the housing supply and cutting red tape. But it has a tough road ahead in the House and possibly the White House. This morning, we'll dig in. Also on the show: GDP growth was revised down to just 0.7%. Plus, China's latest five-year plan aims to transform the country into a tech-driven global power, while boosting domestic demand.

A weak GDP estimate contributed to the declines. Plus: Meta shares slide after reports that it delayed releasing a new AI model. Katherine Sullivan hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China has released a new five-year economic plan that projects GDP growth of around 4.5 percent in the coming year. That would be the country's slowest growth rate since its era of reforms began in the 1980s. Adam and Cameron dig in. Also on the show: The economics of St. Patrick's Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mark and Marisa are joined once again by colleagues Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes to discuss the past week's developments in the Middle East and whether the forecast has changed as a result. Matt Colyar joins to review the week's release of inflation data, which show stickiness in inflation prior to the $40 jump in oil prices since the start of the year. After a review of weak reports on GDP, spending and confidence, Chris and Juan Pablo discuss how the jump in oil prices and the unprecedented supply shock will affect consumer spending and growth. The group posits their forecasts for how and when the conflict may end.  Guests: Matt Colyar, Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes For a deeper dive on AI and the macroeconomy, see our new paper, The Macroeconomic Consequences of Artificial Intelligence, where we model four potential economic paths over the next decade. We also walk through the scenarios in a companion webinar available now on-demand. Read the paper: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2B555C90-1118-4A49-BDAA-5C0A99F83A9E&app=download Watch the webinar: https://bit.ly/3OF6dn9 Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As the IAEA predicts a global oil price shock worse than the 1970s, as the Iran war enters its second week the economic effects and implications now begin to deepen. Crude oil prices return to more than $100 barrel, with predictions by Golden Sachs could hit $200. What are the Trump responses so far? Why are they insufficient. What's the impact on US inflation from the Oil shock by sector? Jobs and GDP? Stock markets? Interest  rates? US dollar devaluation? Why focusing on just Supply as cause of oil prices is insufficient. What are the total causes of oil inflation? Finally, what are the respective war strategies of Trump, Israel, Iran?

Thailand's February 2026 snap election produced a result almost nobody predicted. The conservative Bhumjaithai Party, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and openly backed by the military and monarchy, won a commanding victory, defeating the reformist People's Party by over 70 seats. The once-dominant Shinawatra-linked Pheu Thai party collapsed to its worst showing ever. What happened?In this episode, Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior advisor for BowerGroupAsia and professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, breaks down how Thailand's political system works and why it seems to keep producing the same outcome lately. He explains the cycle of reform movements rising, winning elections, and then being dissolved by the courts or overthrown by military coups. After 13 coups and 20 constitutions in under a century, voter fatigue finally set in: turnout dropped to 65% and many young voters stayed home.Thitinan explores how the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict - the worst military clash between ASEAN member states in nearly 60 years - fueled nationalist sentiment that Bhumjaithai weaponized on the campaign trail. He also unpacks a striking contradiction: two-thirds of voters approved a referendum to rewrite the military-era constitution, yet handed power to the very establishment that wrote it.The conversation covers Thailand's economic challenges (92% household debt-to-GDP, stagnant growth, disruption from electric vehicles and AI), the transformation of the US-Thailand alliance from Cold War treaty to transactional trade relationship, and mainland Southeast Asia's growing "arc of instability" - from Myanmar's civil war to cross-border scam networks.Will the old guard finally deliver growth and stability, or is a reckoning on the horizon? Thitinan says the pressure is immense, and if the new government doesn't perform, the next wave of instability could be even bigger.

This week, we discuss the war in Iran and a run of discouraging economic data, including falling payrolls, rising inflation and a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. The most dramatic market development was in oil. Prices surged to $120 per barrel early Monday before plunging to $90 by Monday afternoon, the largest decline on record. The fall followed comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict would soon end. Yet the administration later walked back those remarks, leaving oil trading near $100 by the end of the week. The turbulence in energy markets arrives at an awkward moment for the economy. Signs of stagflation appear to be intensifying. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking the third decline in the past five months. At the same time inflation remains stubborn. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, rose 0.4 percent month over month in January after a similar increase in December. With energy prices rising sharply in recent weeks, the March reading is likely to come in even higher. The growth picture is weakening as well. Fourth quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial estimate of 1.4 percent, a revision that underscores the increasingly fragile state of the economy. Taken together, the combination of softer growth, falling employment, and persistent inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates and tip the economy into recession.

Want to Learn about having "you're own" ITR Economist on your team?→ https://promotions.itreconomics.com/en-us/insights-from-itr-economics Don't miss our Executive Webinar on March 20th→ https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next move. With CPI and Core CPI still running above the Fed's target, inflation remains stubbornly persistent, raising new questions for businesses and consumers alike. Lauren also examines how rising geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in global oil supply could influence energy prices and consumer budgets. While the impact may be temporary, the combination of higher energy costs and growing electricity demand from AI and data centers could complicate the Fed's path toward rate cuts. What does this mean for inflation trends, business planning, and the likelihood of interest rate relief this year? Watch the full episode to understand the forces shaping the economic outlook and what to watch next. 00:02 – Inflation remains sticky: CPI and Core CPI update 00:42 – Middle East tensions and risks to global oil supply 02:12 – How higher energy prices impact consumers 03:25 – Why energy costs matter less than they used to 04:05 – AI, data centers, and rising electricity demand 04:45 – What sticky inflation means for Fed rate cuts 05:30 – Other economic data: GDP, housing, and labor market

Could AI transform our economies to produce explosive growth? Most economists are sceptical at best. Anton Korinek of the University of Virginia, leader of the CEPR research policy network on AI, thinks the threshold is closer than those models suggest.In his latest work, Korinek, Tom Davidson, Basil Halperin, and Thomas Houlden, have built a growth model that captures what happens when AI starts automating AI research itself. Automation does two things simultaneously: it accelerates research, and it offsets the diminishing returns that have historically stopped self-improving processes from compounding. Three reinforcing feedback loops: software quality, hardware quality, and general technological progress, each amplify the others. Korinek's findings are more optimistic than even the AI labs' own roadmaps, which focus on software capability alone. The research behind this episode:Davidson, Tom, Basil Halperin, Thomas Houlden, and Anton Korinek. 2026. "When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? Feedback Loops in Innovation Networks." Working paper, January 2026.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Anton Korinek. 2026. "When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth?" VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestsAnton Korinek is a professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He leads the CEPR Research Policy Network on AI, which is building a community of researchers to understand and anticipate the economic impact of artificial intelligence. He is a member of Anthropic's Economic Advisory Council and was named by Time magazine among the hundred most influential people in AI. His research spanning the economics of transformative AI, growth theory, and the implications of advanced automation for labor markets and inequality has made him one of the most widely cited economists working on these questions. He is also the founder of the Economics of Transformative AI initiative at the University of Virginia, which focuses on the long-run economic consequences of AI systems that approach or exceed human-level capabilities.Visit the CEPR Research Policy Network on AI.Research cited in this episodeDaron Acemoglu's estimate of AI's growth impact. Acemoglu calculated that AI would raise annual growth by approximately 0.07 percentage points, arriving at this figure by multiplying the share of jobs likely to be affected by AI, the fraction of tasks within those jobs that AI could perform, and the productivity gain per task. Korinek argues the estimate was a reasonable description of the AI that existed in 2024 but did not account for the trajectory of capabilities since, nor for the feedback loops between AI progress and further AI development that his own paper models.Recursive self-improvement. The idea that an AI system, once capable enough, could design improved versions of itself, triggering an accelerating cycle of capability gains. The concept was first articulated by John von Neumann in the 1950s and has since become central to debates about transformative AI. All major AI labs, Korinek notes, are working towards some version of this vision; the economic question is whether the resulting growth would be explosive or would be damped by diminishing returns.Semi-endogenous growth models. A class of economic growth models in which long-run growth depends on the scale of the research workforce and the returns to research effort. The canonical insight, associated most closely with Nicholas Bloom and co-authors, is that "ideas get harder to find"; maintaining a given rate of progress requires ever-increasing research investment. Korinek and co-authors use and extend this framework, showing that automation can counteract diminishing returns by replacing human labor with capital in the research process, creating a new feedback loop that was absent from earlier models.Kaldor's balanced growth facts. Nicholas Kaldor's observation, made in the mid-twentieth century, that the major macroeconomic aggregates, including the capital-output ratio, the labor share of income, and the rate of return to capital, remain roughly stable over long periods. Growth economists built their models, including the Solow and Ramsey models, to fit these regularities. Korinek notes that those models were appropriate precisely because they matched the historical data; the question his paper raises is whether the data of the next few decades will look different enough to require a different class of models.Moore's Law. The empirical regularity, observed in computing hardware since the 1960s, that the number of transistors on a chip approximately doubles every two years. Korinek uses chip progress as a calibration benchmark: maintaining that rate of doubling has historically required roughly an eight percent annual increase in the scientific workforce working on chips. This figure allows the model to be parameterised with a real-world measurement of how much additional research input is needed to sustain a given rate of technological progress.Consumer surplus from digital technologies. Korinek raises the problem that GDP statistics are designed to measure market transactions and therefore do not capture the value people derive from digital goods and services beyond what they pay for them. He references research from the Stanford Digital Economy Lab as an example of work attempting to quantify this surplus. The implication for the paper's argument is that explosive AI-driven growth could be underestimated even in the statistics used to monitor it.More VoxTalks Economics episodes"Our Workless Future", an earlier conversation with Anton Korinek from September 2022, in which he set out the case for taking AI's impact on labor markets seriously.Related reading on VoxEUFirms predict an AI productivity boom is coming, a survey of over 5,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives shows that around 70% of firms actively use AI, particularly younger, more productive firms. They forecast AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, increase output by 0.8%, and cut employment by 0.7% over the next three years.How AI is affecting productivity and jobs in Europe, firm-level evidence on AI's effects in Europe. The authors find that AI adoption increases labour productivity levels by 4% on average in the EU, with no evidence of reduced employment in the short run.From AI investment to GDP growth: An ecosystem view, how the current AI wave is contributing to US GDP, both directly through investment and indirectly through ongoing service flows. 

As Donald Trump's war with Iran continues to spiral out of control, Washington has launched a massive propaganda blitz that is right out of Joseph Goebbels's propaganda playbook telling you that the war is one, all is well, we are living in a Golden Age of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Nothing could be further from the truth. Putin is making billions in oil sales, 6 more US soldiers were killed yesterday, and Iran is not even close to regime change or surrender.“Before the LORD: for he cometh, for he cometh to judge the earth: he shall judge the world with righteousness, and the people with his truth.” Psalm 96:13 (KJB)On this episode of the Prophecy News Podcast, take a look at the headlines and all of it ranges from bad, to worse, to I don't even want to think about it. Peter Theil is in Rome preaching about the coming Antichrist, GDP is down to just 0.7% while core inflation has risen to 3.1%, attacks on Jews in America are escalating, gas is at $4.00, Putin is making billions in Trump-approved oil sales, and just for fun, 2026 has 3 Friday the 13th's one of which is today. Do you know what happened on this exact day and date 6 years ago? Trump declared a national emergency with the COVID Pandemic. We told you 6 years ago all this was not going to end, and it hasn't. Now, if this was happening under Barack Obama, you'd know exactly what was going on, if this was happening under Joe Biden, you'd know exactly what was going on. But since it's happening under Donald Trump, you are confused and uncertain what you're looking at. Why is that? Did you suddenly lose all discernment because you'd rather have a Golden Age than the Pretrib Rapture? Ouch. Today we pull back the curtain on the greatest propaganda campaign since the Ministry of Propaganda and Enlightenment was created in WWII, and show you the truth of what our government is actually telling us. What you do with that information is up to you. If you are a Q-bot or a MAGA disciple, you might want to sit this one out.

Better than expected JOLTS data and an "unsurprising" Consumer Sentiment report kick off Kevin Green's coverage on Morning Trade Live. He discusses how it all factors into the inflation picture facing investors on the heels of the latest GDP and PCE numbers also released on Friday. KG looks at the Strait of Hormuz as nations attempt to negotiate safe passage through the embattled oil shipping lane. KG stresses that oil volatility will continue to be the biggest market driver and later he adds thoughts on what traders need to pay attention to heading into the weekend. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Erik Lundh gauges today's economic data, including GDP, and how the conflict in Iran could affect future prints. “It's hard to know” whether to reprice growth expectations yet, “all we really have in this environment are question marks.” He shares his outlook for energy costs and the potential economic fallout of sustained high prices. He's concerned about the U.S. consumer “to a certain extent” as debt and delinquencies rise.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

With markets slightly higher in early Friday trading, Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola asks the question: "Are we able to hold these gains into the end of the day?" He says staying above $6800 is important for the S&P 500 (SPX). On the busier economic data day, Joe points to GDP expectations getting halved as well as the latest personal income numbers. Joe believes market breadth overall is starting to fade a bit, with software "carrying the mantle" in recent trading as it rebounds from earlier selling pressures. He is watching implied volatility versus realized volatility and the "churn" taking place underneath the latest market moves. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Friday was a busy day for economic data, including PCE and GDP reports. Joy Yang breaks down the latest numbers and reacts to geopolitical pressures on the market. She argues that the Iran conflict will likely not be over soon, which will continue to push oil prices up and impact investor sentiment. She thinks investors are staying on the sidelines, but notes that historically, markets tend to “absorb these types of shocks.” Joy looks abroad for opportunities, staying away from U.S. equities.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

＜ヘッドライン＞イランのイスラム教聖職者「専門家会議」、米イスラエルの空爆で殺害された最高指導者アリー・ハメネイ師の後任に反米保守派の次男モジタバ・ハメネイ師を選出　イラン革命防衛隊報道官「当面の間、地域からの原油輸出は1リットルさえ認めない」　湾岸諸国の原油設備を攻撃、ホルムズ海峡を事実上封鎖／イランのホルムズ海峡封鎖で原油相場が急騰、ガソリンが大幅値上がり　IEA加盟国、過去最大規模4億バレルの石油備蓄協調放出で合意　高市総理大臣「石油の民間備蓄15日分と国家備蓄1ヶ月分を放出」「ガソリンの小売価格を全国平均1リットル170円程度に抑制し軽油や重油、灯油などにも措置を講じる」／トランプ米大統領「イランには事実上、攻撃対象にするものは何も残っていない」「軍事作戦はもうすぐ終わる」　原油価格高騰が物価高に跳ね返るのを抑え込もうと口先介入　対ロ経済制裁緩和の禁じ手にも踏み込む構え／米トランプ政権、日本・中国・EUなど16の国・地域を対象に「通商法301条」に基づく調査を開始　「過剰生産能力」の実態調べ、結果次第で制裁関税・輸出規制などの対抗措置／中国・全人代、「第15次5カ年計画」採択し閉幕　「35年の1人当たりGDPを20年比倍増」「ハイテク産業で米国に頼らないサプライチェーン構築」／米2月雇用統計、非農業部門就業者数が前月比マイナス9万2000人と市場予想から大きく乖離してマイナス　米2月消費者物価指数、市場予想と一致するもFRBがより重視する個人消費支出物価指数の上昇示唆　雇用不安とインフレ懸念の高まりへのFOMC＝の判断に注目／公取委、27年春にも荷物の受け手企業が運送会社のトラックに無償で待機強いることを独禁法違反の対象に　待たせた場合には送り主に対価を支払うよう求める、荷物の無償積み下ろしも禁止　違反企業に排除措置命令の行政処分／経営厳しいFMラジオ業界、一部の中継局の廃止・停波と配信アプリ「ラジコ」で代替求める　採算取りづらい過疎地などの放送インフラの維持コストを抑える狙い　災害時の放送・スマホ操作に不慣れな高齢者らへの対応が課題　24年度はFM単営局50社中23社が赤字 ＜ポイント＞　（１） イランの「徹底抗戦」と原油相場の行方（２） 焦るトランプと3/19日米首脳会談の課題（３） 日米欧中銀の政策決定会合について ＜ここ／これを見てきた＞ワールド・ベースボール・クラシック

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros en verde antes de una mañana cargada de datos: PCE y GDP como los catalizadores principales para tasas y expectativas de la Fed. Core PCE esperado en 3.1% anual vs 3.0% previo: inflación aún “pegajosa” y menos espacio para recortes pronto; hoy también sale JOLTS como termómetro del empleo. $ADBE cae fuerte por anuncio de salida del CEO pese a buenos resultados; $META baja tras reporte de que su modelo “Avocado” se retrasa y no iguala a rivales.

Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom John Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 9-13, 2026) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday The National Association of Realtors said the pace of existing home sales rose 1.7% in February, though it was still behind the year-ago rate and around the lowest in more than 30 years. The trade group called demand “muted” as lower mortgage rates and rising wages combined to make housing more affordable than it has been since March 2022. The median sales price rose to $398,000, up 0.3% from February 2025, the 32nd consecutive increase. Wednesday The broadest measure of inflation stayed steady in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% from February 2025, unadjusted for seasonality. That was the same rate as January and still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. Shelter costs led the monthly uptick. Gas prices rose for the first time in three months — prior to subsequent spikes spurred by the Iran war. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, was up 2.5% from the year before, also the same rate as January. Thursday The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 25% in January to $54.5 billion. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said exports rose 5.5% from December, led by non-monetary gold and other precious metals, as well as computers and civilian aircraft. Imports shrank 0.7%, led by pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Since January 2025, the trade gap contracted by almost 58% as exports expanded 10% and imports fell 11%. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks, suggesting employers continue to be reluctant to let workers leave. According to data from the Labor Department, the four-week number was 41% below the 59-year average. More than 2.2 million individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, up 3.5% from the week before and down less than 1% from the year before. The Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits in January continued to track below their pre-COVID levels. Although the annual pace of housing starts rose 7% from December and 9.5% from January 2025, it has been below the pre-pandemic level for nearly two years. Building permits fell both from the month before and the year before. Meanwhile, the pace of houses under construction fell again, sinking 26% below their record pace in late 2022. Friday The U.S. economy grew slower than previously estimated at the end of 2025. The gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from a preliminary report of 2.4% and below the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis blamed the downward revision on weaker consumer spending and private investments and greater declines in government spending and exports. Adjusted for Inflation, GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, the weakest since a 2.1% decline in 2020. In a possible sign of consumer restraint, personal spending fell slightly behind the pace of personal income in January, raising the personal savings rate to its highest level in six months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a savings rate of 4.5% of disposable income, which has been below the pre-pandemic level of 7.5% for more than four years. The same report showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation staying above its long-range target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditure index was up 2.8% from the year before, vs. 2.9% in December. The last time it was below 2% was February 2021. Durable goods orders were unchanged in January as a plunge in demand for commercial aircraft offset scattered gains elsewhere. The Commerce Department reported that orders overall ran 9% higher than the year before. Excluding volatile transportation orders, demand rose 0.4% from the month before and was up 4.4% from January 2025. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, were unchanged for the month and up 2.9% from the year before. U.S. employers posted 6.9 million job openings in January, up marginally from December but below the pre-COVID level for the third month in a row. Postings were down 43% from their peak nearly five years ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Based on openings and unemployed job seekers, the supply of available labor has outpaced demand since July. That’s after more than four years of the balance favoring workers. The number and rate of workers voluntarily quitting – an indication of worker confidence – stayed below pre-pandemic levels for the 25th month in a row. The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment reversed course following the onset of war in Iran. Polling done before Feb. 28 showed improvements in consumer outlooks, the university said, but opinions plunged thereafter regardless of respondents’ incomes, ages or political affiliations. Overall, consumers had lower expectations for their personal finances and higher forecasts for inflation. Market Closings for the Week Nasdaq – 22105, down 282 points or 1.3% S&P 500 – 6632, down 108 points or 1.6% Dow Jones Industrial Average – 46560, down 942 points or 2.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.29%, up 0.15 point

Oil prices are surging as the conflict in Iran intensifies. To ease the pain at the pump, President Trump is tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Former Senior Economic Adviser Steve Moore joins The FOX Business Network's Gerri Willis to break down the administration's energy strategy and why he thinks we can see $2 gas in near future. Plus, the new GDP data showing a cooling U.S. economy.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Stagflation — the dreaded economic word from the 1970s — may be making a comeback. With slowing GDP growth and persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve is caught between cutting rates and controlling rising prices. Chris discusses what the latest economic data means, why everyday costs are still surging, and why owning real assets may be the only way to protect your purchasing power.

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

In this week's live Q&A, John Dominic Crossan takes questions from over 2,000 students in the Lenten class — and the questions are so good that even Dom says so (which, if you know Dom, is not nothing). The conversation moves fast: from the commons and enclosure as the operating logic of empire, to why Antipas moved his capital to a mosquito-infested lakeside city, to the first-century fishing boat built from twelve types of recycled wood as a symbol of economic squeeze, to why the multiplication of the loaves and fish is not just a miracle story but an act of interference in Antipas's export economy, to the difference between traction and distraction in political movements, to whether Christian theology has any business celebrating GDP growth when the boom doesn't boom for the people at the bottom. Crossan also takes on demons as imperial oppression embodied, Jesus as a healer who makes house calls and never sets up a shrine, and the Hagia Sophia mosaic where John says I am the light of the world and Matthew says you are — and why that single-word difference is the whole theology of participation in one sentence. If you haven't watched the lecture yet, do that first. If you have, this is where it gets applied. To join the class and get access to all four visual lectures, head to CrossanClass.com. ⁠You can WATCH the conversation on YouTube⁠ ⁠ONLINE LENT CLASS: Jesus in Galilee w/ John Dominic Crossan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ What can we actually know about Jesus of Nazareth? And, what difference does it make? ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠This Lenten class ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠begins where all of Dr. John Dominic Crossan's has work begins: with history. Only by understanding what Jesus' parables meant then can we wrestle with what they might demand of us now. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The class is donation-based, including 0, so join, get info, and join up here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ John Dominic Crossan, professor emeritus at DePaul University, is widely regarded as the foremost historical Jesus scholar of our time. He is the author of several bestselling books, including The Historical Jesus, How to Read the Bible and Still Be a Christian, God and Empire, Jesus: A Revolutionary Biography, The Greatest Prayer, The Last Week, and The Power of Parable. He lives in Minneola, Florida. Previous Podcast Episodes with Dom & Tripp Are We Waiting for God, or Is God Waiting for Us?⁠⁠⁠ A Tale of Two Gods: Why C.S. Lewis's Famous Argument Falls Apart⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠From Iron Swords to Nuclear Bombs: Tracing 3,000 Years of Escalatory Violence⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul, Christ, & the Mystery of Execution & Resurrection⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul, Josephus, & the Challenge of Nonviolent Resistance⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul, Rome, & the Violent Normalcy of Civilization⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul & the Fictional History of Luke-Acts⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul & Thecla⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Ask JC Anything⁠⁠⁠ This podcast is a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Homebrewed Christianity ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠production. Follow ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠the Homebrewed Christianity⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Theology Nerd Throwdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, & ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Rise of Bonhoeffer⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ podcasts for more theological goodness for your earbuds. Join over 75,000 other people by joining our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Substack - Process This!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get instant access to over 50 classes at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.TheologyClass.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow the podcast, drop a review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, send ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠feedback/questions⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ or become a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠member of the HBC Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kerry Lutz and Jim Welsh discuss how sustained high oil prices could impact the global economy, noting that the duration of elevated prices matters far more than short-term spikes. They examine recent market reactions to oil moves, regional supply risks such as Qatar's natural gas force majeure, and why stronger U.S. production today may provide more economic insulation than during the 2008 energy shock. The conversation also places current energy prices in historical context, explaining why a true 1970s-style crisis would require dramatically higher oil prices. They then turn to precious metals, where Jim outlines gold's recent parabolic rally and sharp correction. While the pullback may continue in the short term, he believes it could ultimately set the stage for the next leg higher in the longer-term bull market. The discussion closes with a look at AI and market structure risks. Massive hyperscale spending on artificial intelligence is expected to boost GDP this year, but it may also distort market psychology and push equity valuations higher than fundamentals justify. At the same time, that spending could reduce corporate buybacks as companies redirect cash flow toward AI infrastructure. With technical cracks appearing in the S&P, the group notes that downside risks for equities may be building. Find Jim here: https://www.macrotides.com/ Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5  

Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe (Tuesday, March 10) recaps a mixed market day that started higher on optimism from comments that the war would end soon, then faded to flat after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz amid intensified Middle East conflict. He notes modest economic releases: the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 98.8 (near historical average) and February existing home sales above expectations at over 4 million, suggesting some housing thaw as rates ease. He explains the Strait's global importance (about 20% of oil/LNG and 30% of helium) and estimates a ~0.4% GDP impact if disruptions persist, contributing to higher long rates and a steepening yield curve. He advises against timing volatility and discusses defense contractors, emphasizing fundamentals and the ability of large firms to develop or acquire new technologies. 00:00 Market Open And Headlines 00:48 Economic Data Check In 01:27 Strait Of Hormuz Stakes 02:18 Rates And Yield Curve 02:51 Staying Invested Through Volatility 03:19 Defense Stocks And Cheap Weapons 04:50 How We Invest In Defense 05:16 Wrap Up And Q And A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com