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Market value of goods and services produced within a country

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    Thoughts on the Market
    Comeback for Europe's Bull Market?

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 29, 2026 9:09


    Europe's equity rally has surprised many investors. Our Europe Head of Research Product Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock discuss potential outcomes of the broadening market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Products here in Europe. Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist. Paul Walsh: And today, we're looking at whether European equities have more room to broaden – as markets assess the implications of a potential U.S.-Iran deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.It's Monday, June the 29th at 10am in London. Marina, it's always great having you on. And for our listeners out there, I think they'd be interested to hear that if we look at Europe's performance year-to-date, it's now on a par to the S&P. So, both indices are up somewhere between 7 and 8 percent year-to-date. So, Europe is starting to stage something of a comeback from the conflict lows. And so, what's driving this? And are we beginning to see inflows into Europe again? Marina Zavolock: So, I'm going to give a two-part answer to this. Firstly, Europe has a lot of the same exposure as the U.S., so that is part of the reason… I know that Europe has this kind of reputation for not having a lot of tech exposure; but we do have tech exposure… Paul Walsh: We do. Marina Zavolock: Not to the same degree as the U.S., but, let me just give you some numbers here. So, we have a number of sectors heavily exposed to the AI CapEx boom. These are led primarily by the semis sector in Europe, tech hardware, cap goods, and metals and mining; specifically, copper has a link to AI as well. And those sectors, let's say roughly they make up at this point about 15 percent weight of our index. And if you look at that year-to-date performance that's on par with the U.S., almost 90 percent of it is made up from these sectors.Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: So, these sectors have moved just as aggressively as many of the AI pockets within the U.S. That's the answer that's kind of similar to the U.S. The answer that's a bit different is that we get from time to time, over the years actually, but we had a very big one earlier this year. We get these waves of interest in Europe because investors start to think about diversification. So… Paul Walsh: That's right. The broadening. Marina Zavolock: Yes. So, they... And we've called for broadening recently on the back of this, Iran-U.S. MOU. But this broadening has other drivers as well. So when we felt this wave of interest in diversification, and we saw the flows coming into Europe earlier this year, the driver was initially because the Mag7 was kind of going choppy and sideways. So, that just drove diversification out of Mag7 and into equal-weighted S&P, but that also always benefits Europe. Or tends to benefit Europe. But also, we had this wave of interest in real assets earlier this year; and Europe has a higher share of real assets than the U.S. Now, at this moment, I am sensing that we are getting that pickup in broadening interest once again from my feedback with investors. You had this MOU, which was the initial trigger. You have oil prices, broadly, they're falling. That's helpful as well. But I think the biggest driver of what's driving this diversification interest at this moment is actually the volatility that we're seeing in the AI complex. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, what a lot of the feedback I'm getting these days from investors that are coming back to Europe after focusing primarily on the U.S. is, ‘Look, I have a lot of AI in my portfolio. I like my AI exposure. I'm not looking to get rid of it or to sell it, but incrementally, I'm a little bit worried about this volatility. And I'm looking to broaden my exposure. What do you like in Europe to help me diversify away from this kind of volatility that we're seeing now?' Paul Walsh: And I think that's a great segue, Marina, to my second question, because with Europe having really kept pace with the S&P year-to-date, the question that really is going to be asked is the sustainability of that relative performance. And when we think about a backdrop here in Europe of pretty low economic growth, the market continues to be worried about rate hikes given recent inflationary dynamics. And as you've articulated there, tech has played a very significant role here in Europe as well in terms of driving markets higher. So, you've alluded to it in a few of your comments already, but how sustainable do we see this as being? Marina Zavolock: It depends on AI, to be honest with you. So, if AI starts to really move up at an aggressive pace like it was earlier this year, then it's hard for Europe to outperform given our exposure. But if that starts to move up at a more moderate pace, Europe has a chance to do very well. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: I think there's a lot of misperceptions when it comes to European equities. And outside of AI, actually there's quite a lot of strength. So, misperception one, you've mentioned it, which is basically: Oh, look at our PMIs, look at our GDP growth. Why bother with European equities? I think this is maybe what some U.S. investors may think. But just like in the U.S., the equities market, and maybe even more so, the equities market in Europe – it is not the economy. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: So, we just published our global exposure guide over this past weekend, which Morgan Stanley has been running 29 iterations of this guide. Europe's exposure to Europe is pretty much at historical lows over decades. Europe's exposure to Europe as a percent of revenues is now 45 percent of revenues … Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: ... is European exposed. The rest is very global, including the U.S. Um, Europe, uh, Of that 45 percent domestic, a lot of that is banks, some defensive sectors. Only a very small sliver is actually consumer-oriented sectors that would see earnings downgrades on the back of ECB hiking, for example. So, I think people may also be surprised to know that consensus earnings growth for Europe this year is over 16 percent. Paul Walsh: Mm. Marina Zavolock: It's really healthy. Paul Walsh: It's pretty healthy. Marina Zavolock: I know the U.S. is over 20, but Europe is over 16 percent. These kinds of ideas of, you know – we have a shortage of energy and therefore our earnings are going to be down – they're misperceptions. Because actually, as long as oil doesn't spike to, I don't know, [$]150. If it stays within a healthy range, call it [$]70 to 90, that's actually a very good environment for Europe because we have a lot of real assets. We have the banks which benefit from higher inflation because they trade on the steepness of the curve. And we have some AI exposure. If you add up those three things, which all benefit from inflation, that's 60 percent of our earnings pie.Paul Walsh: Right. Marina Zavolock: Hence, Europe's actually doing really well. And I'll just mention one other thing. Earlier this year, we broke out of a structural downtrend discount; that range that we were trading in versus the U.S. So, for almost 10 years, Europe's discount was just going wider and wider and wider and wider. And as of January 1st, this year, on a like-for-like basis, so sector neutral excluding Mag7, we broke out of that structural downtrend, and we keep seeing a narrowing. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: So, if you're going to broaden, it actually makes a lot of sense to look at Europe, where we have these discounts, and we have value, and we have growth. Paul Walsh: Yeah. So, the point there being the relative valuation discount of Europe to the U.S. has been actually closing a little bit more recently. Final question from my side. You have obviously recently refreshed your sector model. We have talked about the broadening in our conversation today. What are you advocating to your clients out there in terms of relative sector preferences? Marina Zavolock: Yeah. So, we run a data-driven model. Just briefly, we look at things like earnings revisions breadth – works really well as a leading indicator in Europe; a leading indicator for future earnings as well. Consensus price target revisions breadth, balance sheet measures. We look at a number of different things, AI exposure. And basically, I'll just give you the top sectors in our model now. Semis number one, metals and mining number two, led by copper. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: Banks number three. I think banks, for me, it's a key diversification play. Paul Walsh: Yes. Marina Zavolock: A big differentiator. And trading on 10 times PE with very high distributions, buybacks and dividends, low teens earnings growth upgrades. Front of the line on AI adoption and seeing that ROI coming through. Cap goods, number four, that's also led by AI exposure. Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: And then I'll just mention lastly, utilities is an overweight as well. That's also a little bit AI linked, but very, very under-owned; lagging the trends we've seen in the U.S. And broader based in terms of the positives there because we also have this drive for renewables, which is coming back. Paul Walsh: Marina, always, we value your insights highly. Thanks as always for taking the time to talk. Marina Zavolock: Great speaking with you, Paul. Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And please do share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

    The Howie Carr Radio Network
    SCOTUS' Big Ruling on TPS, Plus John Carney Breaks Down GDP Numbers and Moulton has a Meltdown | 6.25.26 - The Grace Curley Show Hour 1

    The Howie Carr Radio Network

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 25, 2026 56:14


    President Trump got another big win, after today's major ruling from SCOTUS' on TPS. Then, Breitbart's John Carney joins Grace to break down GDP numbers and Seth Moulton has a meltdown on camera.  Visit the Howie Carr Radio Network website to access columns, podcasts, and other exclusive content.

    Nightmare Success In and Out
    Death Row to Bestselling Author | Damien Echols on the West Memphis Three, Freedom & Life After Death

    Nightmare Success In and Out

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 25, 2026 65:32


    For nearly eighteen years, Damien lived inside a prison cell waiting for the state to execute him.Most people know the story of the West Memphis Three. They know the headlines, the documentaries, the controversy, and the legal battle that ultimately led to Damien's release in 2011.But this isn't just a story about a murder case. It's a story about survival. About finding purpose inside a six-by-nine-foot cell.About holding onto hope when the world has already written your ending. About refusing to let bitterness define your future.While sitting on death row, Damien immersed himself in books, spirituality, meditation, and personal growth. He built a mindset strong enough to survive one of the harshest realities imaginable. And when freedom finally came after nearly two decades behind bars, he faced a challenge many never consider—how do you learn to live after surviving death row?Since his release, Damien has reinvented himself as an artist, speaker, spiritual teacher, and New York Times bestselling author. His memoir, Life After Death, gave readers an intimate look at surviving prison, reclaiming freedom, and rebuilding a life that many thought had been lost forever. Today, he continues to inspire people around the world through his writing, teaching, and advocacy.Now, with his new book, Alchemy of the Blade, arriving this September, Damien is continuing his exploration of transformation, resilience, and the extraordinary power of the human spirit.Today, Damien Echols joins us to talk about life on death row, freedom after prison, the lessons that kept him alive, and what happens when your worst nightmare becomes the foundation for a remarkable second act.Show sponsors: Navigating the challenges of white-collar crime? The White-Collar Support Group at Prisonist.org offers guidance, resources, and a community for those affected at prisonist.org. Protect your online reputation with Discoverability! Use code NIGHTMARE SUCCESS for an exclusive discount Visit Discoverability.co. Auto Plaza Direct "Your personal car concierge!" Let them handle every detail to find your perfect car autoplazadirect.com. Author Saffron Gustafson www.mynameissaffron.com, "My Name is Saffron." Author Nevin Shetty, "Second Chance Economics: How Hiring The Formerly Incarcerated Can Unlock $1 Trillion in GDP." www.secondchanceeconomics.com

    HaYovel | The Heartland Connection

    Trump is signaling a major arms deal with Turkey — even as the IDF reveals how a Hamas headquarters operating out of Istanbul has been coordinating terrorist attacks inside Israel. Meanwhile, explosive allegations suggest Qatar has secretly supported Iran economically and militarily while publicly playing mediator, and New York's Democratic primaries show DSA-backed candidates making alarming gains for the Jewish community. On the bright side, Israel's GDP has surged from $513B to $719B since 2023 while Iran's has cratered from $421B to $300B. Nvidia just announced a major new office complex in Yokneam as part of a plan to become Israel's largest private employer, Morocco became the first Arab nation to join Trump's stabilization force in Gaza, and new OSINT raises serious questions about who is really running Iran. The truth about what's happening in Israel — without the propaganda. Joshua Waller, Luke Hilton, Jeremy Gimpel, and Nate Waller break it all down on this week's roundtable podcast.  Sponsor a young person to volunteer in Israel! https://israelguys.link/sponsorship-86exxx35h Sign up for the Prophets of Israel Daily: https://thelandofisrael.com/prophets-of-israel/ Email Jeremy Gimpel: Support@thelandofisrael.com Come on an Israel trip with us! https://theisraelguys.com/volunteer/  Join our Telegram channel: https://t.me/theisraelguys Source Links:  https://x.com/Osint613/status/2069883813145215209?s=20 https://x.com/YishaiFleisher/status/2069932202498937237?s=20 https://thejewishedition.com/news/middle-east-levant/2026/06/24/qatar-secretly-supported-iran-militarily-and-economically/ https://share.google/QlSaPVtKnMhQ9AmiM https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/israel-gdp/ https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/iran-gdp/ https://jewishbreakingnews.com/v2ij   #israel #Israelnews #heartland #JudeaandSamaria #WestBank #Bibi #Netanyahu #Turkey #Trump

    The City Club of Cleveland Podcast
    America 250 Ohio: Building an Innovative Water Economy: State of the Great Lakes

    The City Club of Cleveland Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 25, 2026 60:00


    The Great Lakes are home to 21% of the world's surface freshwater, and it's not just an environmental asset: it's an economic one. With a $6 trillion regional GDP, the region deeply depends on a flourishing water economy: the full range of economic activity that depends on, relates to, or is generated by water. With issues like emerging contaminants and water scarcity on the rise, there is both an urgent need and an economic opportunity to create solutions that can be deployed in the Great Lakes and adopted around the world.rnrnCleveland Water Alliance (CWA) forges cross-sector partnerships to accelerate these innovations, connecting our region's utilities, universities, government agencies, and manufacturing leaders. From attracting tech creators to building real-world testing environments on the shores of Lake Erie, CWA is doing what Silicon Valley did for computing: turning concentrated expertise and critical need into a world-changing industry.rnrnPresident & CEO Bryan Stubbs was appointed to lead CWA shortly after its inception, growing the organization into a renowned technology catalyst and establishing Ohio as a global destination for water innovation.rnrnJoin us at the 2026 State of the Great Lakes to learn why the most valuable resource of the 21st century is already in our backyard and what it means for the future of our region.

    AMERICA OUT LOUD PODCAST NETWORK
    The new axis of power? Putin, Xi, Kim, and the challenge to the West

    AMERICA OUT LOUD PODCAST NETWORK

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2026 57:00 Transcription Available


    Don't Imbibe the Kool-Aid with Kim Kennedy – What are the economic, military, and geopolitical implications for the Trump administration's foreign policy agenda? qConsider that Asia accounts for half of the world's GDP. Bill Walton is a former Chairman and CEO of a $10 billion NYSE-traded investment company, a successful inventor, and a renaissance man who joins us to discuss what...

    Bitcoin Magazine
    Sen. Lummis: America's Debt is the BTC Bull Thesis, & Why Clarity is Key to US Financial Dominance

    Bitcoin Magazine

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2026 17:40


    With U.S. debt now exceeding 100% of GDP, Senator Cynthia Lummis argues the country can't afford to ignore Bitcoin. In this Bitcoin Magazine podcast conversation with host Spencer Nichols, she lays out why a strategic Bitcoin reserve could be America's "Louisiana Purchase moment" and how holding it long term might meaningfully reduce the national debt. She also breaks down the Clarity Act timeline and the legislation racing through Congress.

    Behind the Story
    Is the NZ economy all sweet now? We asked Shamubeel

    Behind the Story

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 24, 2026 27:39


    The GDP numbers look good. The Strait of Hormuz is (maybe) open. To find out whether that means the green shoots will bloom into great bountiful gardens, we called in economist Shamubeel Eaqub to ask: Is this cause for optimism? Will the fruits of recovery be shared fairly? How does National's new KiwiSaver policy look to you? And just how close to the bulls**t is the Reserve Bank sailing on interest rates.Plus: Hayden Donnell tells us just How Good is the best of the crunchy peanut butter on NZ supermarket shelves.At Large with Toby Manhire is produced by Te Aihe Butler, Jin Fellet and The Spinoff. Read more at ⁠thespinoff.co.nz⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

    The Julia La Roche Show
    #380 Peter Schiff: End Game Coming, Bubble Popping, $2 Trillion Interest by Next Year

    The Julia La Roche Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2026 48:07


    Peter Schiff warns the bubble is popping as crypto leads the decline, while the bond market faces another breakdown with the 10-year potentially breaking above 5%. He emphasizes inflation is a choice—all Fed chairs chose it, and Warsh will too despite tough talk, because the alternative is politically unacceptable. He reveals the May deficit surged 30% while interest expense jumped 44%, with annual interest payments now hitting $1.6 trillion and will be $2 trillion by next year. Schiff identifies Japan as a looming harbinger with 250% debt-to-GDP, yields climbing above 4%, and the yen collapsing below 160 with potential for another 30-50% decline. His end game thesis: the US dollar loses reserve currency status, US assets get repriced down, and he's positioning to "have all the chips" at the finish line. Gold's pullback from $5,600 to $4,200 is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move, while silver at $65 is headed to $200 and Bitcoin at $64,000 should be sold. GDP growth is an illusion created by faulty deflators that understate inflation; the economy hasn't really expanded, just become more expensive, and stagflationary depression is locked in.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. kalshi.com/julia Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links:https://x.com/PeterSchiffhttps://www.youtube.com/@peterschiffTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome Peter Schiff 00:50 Air coming out of bubble 1:16 Markets too complacent on inflation risks1:45 Warsh has a problem - Hike or no hike, both bad3:36 Inflation is a choice - All Fed chairs chose it5:11 Warsh will choose inflation despite tough talk5:24 Bond market breakdown coming - 10-year to 5%, 30-year to 5.5-6%7:42 May deficit up 30%, interest expense up 44%8:13 Interest payments $1.6 trillion/year, will be $2 trillion next year9:39 Government spending up 50% since COVID, taxes reduced10:57 Inflation is hidden tax - Government prefers it11:52 Iran war costs through inflation, not direct taxation13:49 Wealth tax - Slippery slope, will hit middle class eventually19:56 Japan crisis - Debt to GDP 250%, yen collapsing below 16020:29 Japanese bond yields at 4% on 30-year, rising fast21:45 Japan could sell $1 trillion in US treasuries24:41 Japan harbinger for US crisis24:54 Treasury Secretary Paulson says crisis inevitable27:18 Gold warning sign - Pullback to $4,200 from $5,600 normal29:24 Silver at $65, headed to $20032:39 Stock market at highs but economy worse than Biden36:56 GDP illusion - Deflator too low, just prices not growth39:48 End game - Dollar won't be reserve currency40:40 Playing for end game, wants all chips at finish43:31 Contrarian predictions - Higher rates, higher oil, higher gold44:30 Japan crisis first domino, then dollar next45:01 Summary - Stagflation and end game thesis

    Tank Talks
    The Rundown 6/23/26: The AI Hype Machine, Canada's Capital Gap, and the Return of Hard Tech

    Tank Talks

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2026 52:58


    In this episode of Tank Talks, recorded live at the Global Startups Conference, Matt Cohen and John Ruffolo take the stage for a wide-ranging conversation on the future of Canada's innovation economy, the AI infrastructure race, and why this moment feels different, even if John still refuses to fully believe “this time is different.” The conversation opens with SpaceX's historic IPO, massive valuation hype, and the question of whether public market demand can support a new wave of AI and frontier tech giants like OpenAI and Anthropic.Matt and John then dig into one of the biggest strategic questions facing founders today: should startups build on top of frontier AI models, or will those platforms eventually come for their margins? John draws a sharp comparison to Hootsuite's dependence on social media APIs, warning founders not to build businesses where a monopolistic platform can eventually “come calling.” From LLM unit economics and inference costs to local models, edge compute, AI sovereignty, and Canada's weak position in the full AI stack, this episode breaks down why real moats may come from deep tech, defense, energy, chips, space infrastructure, and hard-to-build businesses.The discussion also tackles Canada's AI strategy, the tension between innovation and regulation, the rise of dual-use defense startups, the shortage of domestic growth capital, and whether Canada is becoming a farm team for U.S. acquirers. John and Matt close with a candid look at family offices, immigrant founders, Canadian ambition, and what actually separates fundable founders from the noise: purpose, focus, and the ability to build something hard when everyone else is chasing the latest shiny object.SpaceX's IPO and the return of the hype machine (02:48)Matt and John open with the massive SpaceX IPO, its soaring valuation, and whether the market is being driven by fundamentals or pure scarcity-fueled hype. John argues that discounted cash flows still matter, even when investors are caught up in the next great frontier tech story.Satya Nadella's warning to AI founders (05:56)Matt brings up Satya Nadella's warning about relying too heavily on frontier models. The discussion explores why businesses built on top of OpenAI, Anthropic, or other LLM platforms may eventually face direct competition from the very infrastructure they depend on.Canada's AI strategy: long overdue, but too unfocused? (16:14)Matt and John assess the government's AI strategy and the promise that Canadian AI adoption could add massive GDP growth. John says the strategy contains useful objectives, but risks becoming a laundry list without a clear answer to the question: which pedal are we actually pressing?Building trust in AI without creating regulatory capture (21:46)The audience asks how Canada can build trust in AI adoption. John argues for clear guardrails, but warns that large AI players may eventually welcome heavy regulation because it protects incumbents and locks out smaller competitors.Defense tech is hot again, but not every startup is real (25:19)Matt and John discuss the surge of interest in dual-use defense technology. John warns that when government money appears, everyone suddenly claims to be a defense company, making it harder to separate serious builders from PowerPoint tourists.Is building in Canada patriotic or financially irrational? (33:19)Matt asks the blunt question: in 2026, is staying in Canada a patriotic endeavor or a financial mistake? John argues Canada has the talent, ecosystem, and raw materials, but lacks confidence and ambition at the capital layer.Why Canada needs real growth capital, not just early-stage funding (37:34)John explains why he created Mavericks to address the gap in Canadian growth equity. The issue is not founder ambition, but the lack of domestic capital willing to write meaningful checks once companies need to scale past the early stage.Family offices, education gaps, and Canada's missing innovation capital (43:56)Matt explains why many Canadian family offices are still learning how venture and startup investing work. Unlike real estate or private equity, venture requires patience, a tolerance for the J curve, and a different understanding of risk and return.Canada's AI edge may be hiding in resources, minerals, and chip substrates (49:43)The episode closes with a discussion of Canada's possible edge in AI infrastructure through natural gas, rare earth materials, zinc byproducts, indium phosphide, and semiconductor supply chains. Matt and John argue that Canada's issue is not a lack of resources, but a lack of permission, capital, and long-term conviction to build around them.Connect with John Ruffolo on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/joruffoloConnect with Matt Cohen on LinkedIn: https://ca.linkedin.com/in/matt-cohen1Visit the Ripple Ventures website: https://www.rippleventures.com/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit tanktalks.substack.com

    BTC Sessions
    Housing Crash, Immigration Crisis & Economic Ruin | Rabidoux & Temprile

    BTC Sessions

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2026 67:33


    BTC Sessions Ep. 079: Housing Crash Exposed, Immigration Crisis & Economy on the Brink | Ben RabidouxCanada's private sector is shrinking, homes in Ontario are selling for half their 2021 price, and 525,000 asylum claimants are stuck in a backlog with no real mechanism to remove bad actors. Ben Rabideau has been sounding the alarm since 2021 — and the data is finally catching up.In this episode, Ben Rabideau — one of Canada's most respected economic analysts — breaks down what the headline GDP numbers are hiding, why consumer confidence is as low as the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, and what the Bank of Canada's next move will hinge on. You'll learn why stripping out public sector employment reveals a deeply negative private sector jobs picture, how Ontario's housing market is producing court-ordered sales at 50 cents on the dollar, and why Ben believes single-family prices may be near a bottom — while rentals have years of decline ahead. You'll also get a clear-eyed look at Canada's asylum system vulnerabilities, the immigration fraud pipeline that ran through colleges like Conestoga, and why an AI policy framework written by an art dealer should concern every Canadian.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:56 - Technical Recession and Population Decline2:39 - Ontario BC versus Alberta Economic Split4:37 - Oil Prices and Alberta Investment Boom6:06 - Government Policy Well Meaning or Incompetent10:12 - Immigration Tightening What Has Changed13:11 - Bank of Canada Rate Cut Binary15:06 - Stripping Public Sector Jobs Picture22:10 - Consumer Confidence at Crisis Lows27:32 - Court Ordered Home Sales at Half Price32:59 - Boomer Millennial Housing Transfer by 2030s39:21 - US Housing 30 Year Mortgage Lock In41:23 - Rising Credit Card and Mortgage Delinquencies48:10 - Bill C 22 AI and Surveillance Issues57:29 - Asylum Backlog and Immigration Fraud1:03:18 - Common Sense Immigration Reforms1:06:54 - Following Ben Rabideau and Edge Analytics

    Keen On Democracy
    Let's Agree to Disagree: Maciej Kisilowski on How to Save Democracy From Deplorables on All Sides

    Keen On Democracy

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 23, 2026 49:35


    “If your opening position is: your views are beyond the pale, you are deplorable, there is no space for you in democracy — then how on earth do we expect anything other than revolutionary conservatism as a response?” — Maciej Kisilowski For Americans concerned about the fragility of their democracy, Poland offers some reassuring news. Having experienced its own illiberal blip, democracy in Poland now seems amongst the healthiest in Eastern Europe. So what does a democracy only created in 1989 teach America as the old republic braces for its surreal semiquincentennial celebration? The Vienna-based constitutional scholar Maciej Kisilowski is the author of Let's Agree on Poland: A Case Study in Strategic Constitutional Design. In this bestselling 2025 book, Kisilowski argues that Poland is a map of where other Western democracies could go. If they choose to. Poland elected its first illiberal conservative government in 2005. Hungary followed in 2010. Both explicitly served as models for Donald Trump — relatively tamed in his first term, unshackled in his second. Like the United States, Poland is a relatively rich country with per capita GDP growing an astonishing 650% in a single generation. So, Kisilowski argues, the conventional argument that Poland embraced illiberalism in response to economic hardship is mostly wrong. Instead, what triggered illiberalism in Poland was culture, particularly the compressed, accelerated challenge to traditional identity — national, male, religious — that EU accession triggered in Central Europe. Kisilowski, who teaches at Central European University, might have entitled his book Let's Agree to Disagree. Poland's solution to this cultural crisis of identity is what Kisilowski calls “subsidiarity” — genuine decentralisation that allows both conservative communities to remain traditional and liberal cities to become progressive, all within a common democratic framework. He warns both the left and the right that if you tell people their views are somehow foreign, it's entirely rational for them to want to smash their “foreign” democracy. This is the Polish model of a viable 21st century democracy. Ironically, it's a Madisonian warning about the dangers of faction. The “deplorable” gambit always backfires. Péter Magyar's remarkable victory in Hungary — a staunch conservative ending Orbán's 16-year mafia-style illiberal chapter — offers the Hungarian model of Kisilowski's argument. So this July 4, worried Americans might read Let's Agree on Poland. Or reread James Madison. Five Takeaways •       Central Europe as the Leading Indicator: Poland and Hungary Before Trump: Poland elected its first revolutionary conservative government in 2005 — sixteen years before the January 6 insurrection. Hungary followed in 2010. Both were explicitly cited as models by the architects of Trump's political project. Kisilowski's argument: what happened in Central Europe is not a regional anomaly but a leading indicator of what happens when open society's challenge to traditional identity is concentrated and rapid rather than gradual. The walls of liberal democratic institutions were weaker in Warsaw and Budapest. They will not hold indefinitely in Washington or London either. •       It's Not the Economy, Stupid: The Case Against Materialist Explanations: Poland and Hungary are economic opposites. Hungary was the “happiest barrack” of the Soviet bloc but fared poorly after 1989. Poland was among the poorer countries of the bloc and grew 650% in per capita GDP in one generation, with a Gini coefficient below France's. Same revolutionary conservative politics. Opposite economic trajectories. Kisilowski's conclusion: the materialist explanation — people turn right because of economic hardship — is flatly wrong. The driver is identity: the compressed, accelerated challenge to national, male, and religious identity imposed by EU accession conditionality in a decade. •       The Deplorable Problem: Why Exclusion Rationally Produces Authoritarianism: Kisilowski's most politically pointed argument: if your opening position to conservatives is that their views are beyond the pale, they are deplorable, there is no space for them in democracy — then it is entirely rational for them to break democracy. Not irrational. Not manipulated. Rational. If there is no space for me inside the system, I must break the system. That is what revolutionary conservatism is: a rational response to liberal exclusion. The solution is not to validate the views. The solution is to demonstrate that there is a place for those people and their communities within a democratic framework. That is the Madisonian insight. •       Subsidiarity as the Solution: Conservative Communities, Liberal Cities, Common Framework: Kisilowski's constitutional proposal, worked out with co-authors from the full ideological spectrum, is subsidiarity: genuine decentralization that allows conservative rural communities to be conservative and liberal cities to be liberal, within a common democratic framework. Budapest, in Magyar's Hungary, should get strong autonomy to pursue the more liberal policies its electorate wants. Warsaw and Kraków should be able to differ. The European Union is, in this reading, the model: different countries, different cultures, one framework. The alternative is winner-takes-all, which always produces a revolutionary reaction from the losers. •       Peter Magyar and Hungary: Proof of Concept for the Compromise Strategy: Magyar's extraordinary victory in Hungary — winning a constitutional majority against a 16-year right-wing regime rightly called a mafia state, in elections skewed heavily toward the government — is, in Kisilowski's reading, direct evidence that the compromise strategy works. Magyar is a staunch conservative and former member of the Orbán government. He won because he demonstrated to far-right voters that there was a place for them and their views within democratic Europe. The 2 million liberal Budapest voters who voted for him did so not because they like his conservatism but because he was unquestionably preferable to Orbán. Kisilowski made sure Magyar got the book. About the Guest Maciej Kisilowski is Associate Professor of Law and Strategy at Central European University (CEU) in Vienna. He is co-editor (with Anna Wojciuk) of Let's Agree on Poland: A Case Study in Strategic Constitutional Design (Oxford University Press, 2025). He is a Europe's Futures Fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM) in Vienna and a visiting fellow at Harvard Law School. He writes frequently for Project Syndicate, Politico, and The EU Observer. References: •       Let's Agree on Poland: A Case Study in Strategic Constitutional Design by Maciej Kisilowski and Anna Wojciuk (Oxford University Press, 202...

    The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
    Iran Won the War, Adam Schiff Wants Your Money, and Japan Is About to Blow Up

    The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 53:04


    Iran's regime survived, got $300B, and we reopened what we closed. Adam Schiff wants to steal Musk's trillion. Japan is about to blow.This episode is sponsored by Zapier. Get started for free at https://zapier.com/goldThe Iran MOU is being celebrated as a great victory, but Peter Schiff argues it achieved nothing more than returning to pre-war conditions: no fighting and the Strait of Hormuz open — both of which were true before the war started. Iran's regime survived, got immediate sanctions relief, access to a $300 billion investment fund, and frozen assets returned. The only concession is a promise not to develop nuclear weapons — the same promise they were making before the war that Trump said wasn't good enough.Schiff dismantles Adam Schiff's viral video calling for confiscation of Elon Musk's trillion-dollar wealth, showing that dumping that much stock would crash the price to a fraction of its value, destroy two companies, eliminate the incentive for future entrepreneurs, and give each household a one-time $7,500 check they'd spend in a week — the communist promise that has failed every time it's been tried. California's billionaire wealth tax made the ballot, threatening a 5% annual levy that would trigger a mass exodus. Meanwhile, Japan's debt crisis is accelerating with the yen breaking down past 160, 10-year JGBs at 2.65%, and a debt-to-GDP ratio of 250% — at 4% interest rates, two-thirds of Japanese tax revenue would go to interest alone. Schiff calls it a preview of America's future.Chapters:00:00 Crisis Without a Plan00:48 Father's Day Intro02:21 Iran MOU Reality Check09:40 Who Really Wins the Deal17:10 Wealth Inequality and Billionaire Taxes31:16 Why Capital Matters32:29 Panama Wealth Conference33:47 Schiff vs Billionaires35:00 Confiscation Fallout42:43 Japan Yen Crisis50:58 Gold Fed Reality Check54:23 Accountability and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out DBJourney and use my code Schiff15 for a great deal: https://dbjourney.com* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

    The Situation with Michael Brown
    6-22-26 - 11am - UK Problems

    The Situation with Michael Brown

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 31:20 Transcription Available


    In a shocking comparison, the speaker reveals that the United Kingdom, a country that once ruled a quarter of the planet, has fallen behind Mississippi in terms of economic prosperity. With a GDP per capita of $57,000, the UK trails behind the US and even Mississippi, which has eliminated its state income tax. This episode explores the reasons behind Britain's decline and what lessons we can learn from their mistakes.The speaker delves into the UK's energy policy, which has led to expensive electricity prices, making it difficult for industries to compete globally. They also discuss how high-volume, low-skilled immigration has masked the country's productivity collapse, leading to stagnant wages and a growing welfare state. The speaker argues that the UK's centralized government and lack of economic kitchen have contributed to its downfall.The conversation also touches on the importance of energy independence and the dangers of relying on expensive, imported energy sources. The speaker highlights the contrast between the UK's situation and that of Mississippi, which has taken a different approach to energy policy. They also discuss the need for a safety net, but warn against creating a hammock that grows faster than the economy.In this episode, the speaker offers a warning to the US, highlighting the dangers of following in the UK's footsteps. They argue that we must prioritize economic growth and energy independence, rather than relying on expensive, imported energy sources. To hear more about the UK's decline and the lessons we can learn from their mistakes, tune in to this episode and discover how we can avoid a similar fate.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    TD Ameritrade Network
    Gibbens: AMD Holds Its Own Against NVDA, SPCX & Other IPOs Benefit GS

    TD Ameritrade Network

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 5:39


    Mark Gibbens expects a 2.5% to 3% increase in economic data like GDP before the year's end, pointing to easing geopolitical tensions and the AI trade offering a lift for the U.S. Sticking with AI, he likes AMD Inc. (AMD) and sees it holding a strong edge in the chipmaking space even as Nvidia (NVDA) maintains leadership. He also expects Credo Technology (CRDO) to gain traction as the company gets an outperform rating from Evercore ISI. Mark then points to Goldman Sachs (GS) as a beneficiary from the booming IPO market with debuts like SpaceX (SPCX) and Cerebras (CBRS). ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

    Keen On Democracy
    Life After GDP: Tim Jackson Returns to 1968 to Excavate a Post-Capitalist Future

    Keen On Democracy

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 32:10


    “The Gross National Product measures everything except that which makes life worthwhile.” — Robert F. Kennedy, University of Kansas, March 18, 1968 It is June 5, 1968. An eleven-year-old English boy is watching the assassination of Bobby Kennedy on his black and white television. That little boy is Tim Jackson — now one of Britain's most influential critics of capitalism. He had no idea then that RFK would change his life. It happened years later, when Jackson discovered a speech Kennedy gave in Kansas in the spring of 1968. It was a speech that changed the way Tim Jackson thought about economics. The March 1968 speech, one of the first of RFK's presidential campaign, was delivered at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, University of Kansas. It opened with a joke at the expense of rival Kansas State University. Then Bobby turned deadly serious. For the first time (at least for a Presidential candidate), he attacked the very idea of the Gross National Product itself. RFK argued that GDP quantifies all the worst stuff including air pollution, cigarette advertising and jails. But it doesn't measure the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It quantifies everything except that which makes life worthwhile. Then fetishizes the data. Worse than wrong, Bobby Kennedy suggested, GDP makes data evil. For Jackson, who has spent his career mulling over the idea of economic growth, RFK's Phog Allen Fieldhouse speech came as a revelation. Indeed much of his later thinking, including his 2021 award-winning book Post Growth: Life After Capitalism, is indebted to this March 1968 speech. Almost sixty years later, in our ever-more-quantifiable age of data-centres, it's a speech that appears uncannily prescient. Both Tim Jackson and Bobby Kennedy are right to remind us that there is an alternative to quantifying progress. There is, indeed, life after GDP. And it can't be measured. Five Takeaways •       An 11-Year-Old Watching the Assassination on His Birthday: Tim Jackson was born on June 4. On the night of June 4–5, 1968, after the California primary, RFK was shot at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles. Jackson — watching on a black and white television in the UK — remembers thinking: oh no, not again. His aunt had just sailed for America from Southampton. Is this the country she is going to? Two high-profile assassinations. Violence as a condition of American political life. He had no idea then that RFK would become important to him professionally two or three decades later. •       The Kansas Speech: GDP Measures Everything Except What Makes Life Worthwhile: The speech RFK gave at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, University of Kansas, March 1968 — one of the first of his presidential campaign — opened with a joke at the expense of rival Kansas State University and became one of the most prescient political speeches of the 20th century. Kennedy attacked GDP directly: it counts air pollution, cigarette advertising, and the jails for the people who break the law. It does not count the health of our children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. •       The Two Wrong Turns of Post-War Capitalism: Jackson's account: fossil fuels made mass production possible; the Great Depression revealed the danger of overproduction; the post-war solution was to persuade people that having more stuff is what matters. Two big mistakes were embedded in that solution. First: material consumption is not all we are — we have social, relational, spiritual needs that GDP ignores. Second: more production does more environmental damage. Both wrong turns are what Kennedy was already diagnosing in Kansas in 1968. Both are what we are now living with in extremis. •       The Trillionaire and the 2 Billion: The interview is recorded the day after the world's first trillionaire arrived on the scene. Jackson's response: this is an obscene amount of money for one person to have, while 2 billion people lack access to clean water and electricity. The same structural observation could be made about the 1850s: monarchs parading luxury while the people around them starved. The trillionaire is not a new phenomenon. He is the latest expression of an economic system that was always building toward this endpoint. •       They Created a Desert and Called It Peace: In the Kansas speech, RFK quoted Tacitus on Rome: “they created a desert and called it peace.” Jackson applies it directly to today's America: what is it to be a citizen of the affluent West only on the back of a flattened Gaza, a distant war, the creation of violence to preserve a failing hegemonic empire? Bobby was saying: we have values around social justice. We have a fragile planet. These are what matter. Bernie Sanders said the same things. AOC picked up the mantle. The message is unchanged. It is still Kansas, 1968. About the Guest Tim Jackson is Professor of Sustainable Development at the University of Surrey and Director of the Centre for the Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity (CUSP). He is the author of Post Growth: Life After Capitalism (Polity Press, 2021; winner of the 2022 Eric Zencey Prize for Economics) and Prosperity Without Growth (2009/2017; Financial Times book of the year). He is also an award-winning BBC radio dramatist. He lives in Guildford, Surrey. References: •       Post Growth: Life After Capitalism by Tim Jackson (Polity Press, 2021). •       RFK's University of Kansas speech, March 18, 1968 — delivered at Phog Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kansas. •       Tacitus, Agricola — “they created a desert and called it peace,” quoted by RFK in the Kansas speech. •       Kerry Kennedy, Ripples of Hope — referenced in the conversation. •       Andrew Keen's forthcoming book: Where Have You Gone, Bobby Kennedy? My Search for a Lost America — the RFK book this conversation feeds directly into. About Keen On America Nobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States — hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 3,000 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting. WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple Podcasts

    寶島全世界-鄭弘儀&鄧惠文 主持
    【寶島全世界】 台股高點沒有天花板? 日、韓股跟著High! 美伊停火成定局,油價跌破80美元!| 鄭弘儀主持 2026/06/22

    寶島全世界-鄭弘儀&鄧惠文 主持

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 49:41


    科技浪潮持續推進,投資機會不只在科技巨頭,也延伸至全球供應鏈。野村全球科技多重資產策略,聚焦美國創新、亞洲製造與關鍵供應鏈,搭配全天候債券策略,迎向下一波成長動能。投資一定有風險,基金投資有賺有賠,申購前應詳閱開說明書。*搶占科技先機看這裡: https://fstry.pse.is/95rpf4 ——以上廣告由 Firstory 與【月城南廣告】共同執行—— **米克拉颱風估明增為強颱北轉 氣象署:周四到周六全台降雨機率高**歐洲熱浪來襲!多國怕熱死人急發布高溫警報**台股看不到天花板!台積電飆2510元、指數登47741點 雙創新猷**瑞銀 鄧維慎 : 上修台灣2026年 GDP 成長預測由8%至9.9%**AI、半導體投資熱 日經收盤首破7.2萬點創新高**南韓綜指站穩9100點上方 再創收盤新高**日圓「0.1991」史上最甜!10萬台幣多換2.4萬日圓**布蘭特原油轉而跌破80美元 美伊談判傳進展、波斯灣準備增產**美伊停火、機票開始降價了!AirAsia X 率先砍價5% 執行長:每周檢視**美伊首輪會談結束 同意60天內達成終戰路線圖**川普搶先宣布英相要下台 狠批施凱爾搞砸移民與能源**日本《共同社》:高市內閣支持率跌至55% 創上任以來新低**明年大選壓力 義大利拒出錢為烏克蘭採購武器**克蘭無人機扭轉戰局!金融時報:精準打擊癱瘓俄羅斯後勤生命線**日經亞洲:涉芬太尼走私與加密貨幣詐騙 中企疑利用日本據點跨國犯罪**太子集團高層在日本落網! 疑是44歲「軍師」脫口想永久居留**曾與馬興瑞共事 深圳政協主席戴北方遭開除黨籍**環太平洋軍演24日登場 韓國首度擔任海上指揮官**曾管國安的調查員風紀敗壞:放高利貸、攜美女出入摩鐵、還受業者招待到中國**前記者「馬德」利用身分滲透軍方?莊瑞雄怒批:這種人「殺無赦」**蔣萬安提廢監院 鄭麗文打臉:國民黨目前沒有要推動修憲的計畫**讚習近平手「柔軟像雲朵」 鄭麗文:他手是真的很軟#寶島聯播網 #鄭弘儀 #寶島全世界 #台積電 #AI #川普 #伊朗 #美伊和談 #米克拉颱風 #熱浪 #GDP #日圓 #高市早苗 #油價 #施凱爾 #烏克蘭 #馬德 #蔣萬安 #習近平 #鄭麗文 加入會員,支持節目: https://clw4248xv113d01wg7s4h2xnq.firstory.io/join留言告訴我你對這一集的想法: https://open.firstory.me/user/clw4248xv113d01wg7s4h2xnq/comments Powered by Firstory Hosting

    The NZ Property Market Podcast
    Is the Trade-Up Window Open? + The July OCR Standoff

    The NZ Property Market Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 26:36


    Send us a question/idea/opinion direct via text message!Are you sitting tight in a three-bedroom home waiting for the property market to "improve"? You might be missing a massive strategic window.In this episode of the New Zealand Property Market Podcast, Head of Research Nick Goodall and Chief Economist Kelvin Davidson unpack the latest "trade-up premium" data. They reveal why a softer housing market has actually made it significantly cheaper to upgrade to a four-bedroom home right now, with value gaps shrinking by up to 12% across major New Zealand regions.The guys also dive into a massive week of economic shifts. Between lower-than-expected Q1 GDP growth (0.8%) and cooling monthly inflation numbers, the previously "guaranteed" July OCR rate hike has suddenly hit a 50/50 standstill. Could the Reserve Bank hold off until September?Plus, we look at why property investors are showing early signs of election nervousness in the upcoming Chart Pack, and celebrate an epic weekend of Kiwi sport - from the Hurricanes' masterclass Super Rugby victory at the Cake Tin to the All Whites' tactical run.This week we discuss:The Shrinking Value Gap: Suburb-level shifts in the 3-to-4-bedroom price premium (and why downturns favour the bold buyer).The Macro Shift: Why 0.8% GDP and falling Q2 CPI projections (down to 4.0%) are giving the RBNZ pause.The Mechanics of the OCR Vote: Dissecting the 3-all split committee and the likelihood of one voter flipping back to a hold.Chart Pack Teaser: First-home buyer resilience vs. shifting investor sentiment ahead of the election.The Sports Wrap: A massive weekend for the Canes, the Black Caps, the Warriors, and the All Whites.Sign up for news and insights or contact on LinkedIn, X @NickGoodall_CL or @KDavidson_CL and email ngoodall@cotality.com or kdavidson@cotality.comThis podcast is for educational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or tax advice. The hosts are not licensed Financial Advice Providers in New Zealand. All information is of a general nature and does not take into account your personal situation or goals. Please consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions.

    The Western Bubble
    In Defence of Economists #148

    The Western Bubble

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 22, 2026 53:01


    This week Balder defends his own people. A YouTube video titled "Economists are full of shit" and the hundred-plus likes underneath it sparked this episode, and the underlying complaint is understandable: a generation that was promised growth has watched that growth show up everywhere except their own bank accounts. But the target of that anger is wrong. Economists study economic behaviour. Politicians decide what to do with that knowledge. The neoliberal consensus that dominated policy from the 1980s onwards was a political choice, not an inevitable conclusion handed down by the discipline of economics itself.The data makes the disconnect impossible to miss. GDP and median household income moved together until the 1990s, then diverged sharply. Productivity and hourly compensation tell the same story from 1970 onwards. Nearly 40 percent of Americans could not cover an unexpected expense without significant strain on their savings, despite a quarter century of consistent GDP growth. None of that is a failure of economics as a science. It is a failure of politics to ask economists the right questions, namely how do we improve human wellbeing, rather than how do we maximise growth and assume the rest follows.We also dig into Gary Stevenson's viral critique of how economics is taught, which gets the methodology problem mostly right while building an oversimplified enemy out of an entire profession, and a Novara Media clip on China that shows exactly the same instinct from the opposite political direction: reaching for a tribe instead of an analysis. Economics is a soft science. It will sometimes get things wrong. That does not make it worthless, and confusing the discipline with the politicians who misused it is its own kind of Western Bubble thinking.This podcast is an individual project between us, Dario Hasenstab and Balder Hageraats. We are supported by our producer Stefani Obradovic from Western Bubble Insights & Strategy. If you would like to get in touch with us, write us an email at thewesternbubble@gmail.com.

    Geek Forever's Podcast
    ปอกเปลือกความจริง! ปาฏิหาริย์ (ลวงตา) เศรษฐกิจเวียดนาม? | Geek Monday EP329

    Geek Forever's Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 21, 2026 24:33


    เวียดนามคือประเทศที่เศรษฐกิจโตเร็วที่สุดในเอเชีย ด้วยตัวเลข GDP ที่พุ่งทะลุ 8% จนใครต่างก็บอกว่าที่นี่คือมหาอำนาจใหม่ที่จะมาก้าวข้ามจีน แต่ภายใต้ตัวเลขที่สวยหรู กลับมีความผิดปกติบางอย่างซ่อนอยู่ เพราะในขณะที่เศรษฐกิจเติบโตอย่างร้อนแรง การใช้ไฟฟ้าของประเทศกลับชะลอตัวลงอย่างน่าประหลาดใจ ยิ่งไปกว่านั้นธุรกิจท้องถิ่นกลับมีรายได้หดตัว และเวียดนามก็ยังคงต้องพึ่งพาการนำเข้าชิ้นส่วนจากจีนอย่างมหาศาล คำถามคือ ปาฏิหาริย์ทางเศรษฐกิจของเวียดนามที่ทั่วโลกกำลังแห่ชื่นชม แท้จริงแล้วคือความแข็งแกร่งที่หยั่งรากลึก หรือเป็นเพียง “ภาพลวงตา” ที่สร้างขึ้นจากเงินทุนต่างชาติ คลิปนี้จะพาไปเจาะลึกเบื้องหลังความจริงที่ซ่อนอยู่ใต้พรมครับ เลือกฟังกันได้เลยนะครับ อย่าลืมกด Follow ติดตาม PodCast ช่อง Geek Forever's Podcast ของผมกันด้วยนะครับ #เศรษฐกิจเวียดนาม #ข่าวเศรษฐกิจ #เวียดนาม #การลงทุนเวียดนาม #วิเคราะห์เศรษฐกิจ #วิกฤตเศรษฐกิจ #หุ้นเวียดนาม #ธุรกิจเวียดนาม #Vingroup #สรุปข่าวเศรษฐกิจ #เศรษฐกิจเอเชีย #ความรู้ธุรกิจ #ข่าวต่างประเทศ #การลงทุนต่างประเทศ

    Silicon Curtain
    Moscow Oil Refinery on FIRE - Z-Patriots, Regime and Population Don't React Well!?

    Silicon Curtain

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2026 12:52


    Silicon Bites Ep356 | 2026-06-20 | On 12 June 2026, Vyacheslav Markhayev — Communist Party of the Russian Federation, sitting State Duma deputy, former Buryat OMON riot-police commander, former colonel of the Russian Interior Ministry — published a Telegram statement that, by the standards of the Russian state in 2026, should have produced an immediate Article 280.3 dissemination-of-false-information prosecution. Cross-confirmed across Meduza (12 June 2026), The Moscow Times (12 June 2026), Kyiv Post (12 June 2026), Novaya Gazeta Europe (12 June 2026), the statement read in part — and we paraphrase to preserve the substance:----------ACTIVE CAMPAIGN:We are raising funds for 5 of 15 Vampire DronesSilicon Curtain for Kupiansk Vampires. Dzyga's Paw, together with Jonathan Fink, is joining forces to raise $40,000 to provide the Khartiia Brigade with Vampire Drones.https://dzygaspaw.com/silicon-curtain-for-kupiansk-vampiresThese heavy bombers are designed to destroy manpower and equipment, as well as for remote mining. The Vampire UAV, manufactured by Skyfall, has proven itself to be one of the most effective weapons in the Kupiansk direction. Skyfall is one of Ukraine's largest defense tech companies, producing Vampire bomber drones, various modifications of Shrike FPV drones, P1-SUN, Shahed drone interceptors, communication systems, and components.----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.gofundme.com/f/scaling-up-campaign-to-fight-authoritarian-disinformation----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Save Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.org----------SOURCES:Michael Naki — long-form video analysis of 18 June 2026Meduza English — "Communist Party lawmaker warns Russia is 'on the brink of a social explosion' and demands a 'clear plan' to end the war" (12 June 2026) The Moscow Times — Markhayev statement coverage (12 June 2026).Kyiv Post — "Russian Lawmaker Warns of 'Social Explosion' Amid War Losses, Demands 'Public Plan' to End War" (12 June 2026).Eurasia Review — "Russia 'On Brink Of Social Explosion' Because Of Kremlin Policies Over The Last 25 Years – OpEd" (14 June 2026) Novaya Gazeta Europe — Markhayev statement and Russian-language criticism coverage (12 June 2026).The Moscow Times via Charter97 and Dagens.com — VTsIOM stopped publishing the open Putin trust rating after it fell to 29.5% in early April 2026; methodology change to door-to-door canvassing in mid-May 2026; closed-rating still at ~73% (8 June 2026).Mezha (Bukvy) — "VTsIOM halted open Putin approval rating after it fell below 30%" — methodology comparison between open recall and direct trust polling.Kyiv Independent — "Russian pollster stops publishing Putin's 'open trust' figures as ratings slide" (8 June 2026).Kyiv Independent — "Leaked Kremlin reports predict rising dissatisfaction with Putin, Zelensky claims" (14 June 2026)Kyiv Post — "Leaked Forecasts: Putin Faces Soaring Disapproval Ahead of Fall Elections" (14 June 2026)Janis Kluge via Yahoo / Daily Mail — Q1 2026 military spending analysis: 5.9 trillion rubles = 46% of federal budget = 30% YoY increase; military = two-thirds of revenues; oil/gas revenues -45% YoY; classified-spending category +40% to 40% of all expenditure; 12% of GDP per quarter on war.----------

    Don't Wait For Your Wake Up Call!
    Relieve Your Low Back Pain in 2 Minutes | Ep 276

    Don't Wait For Your Wake Up Call!

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 20, 2026 23:20


    The John Batchelor Show
    S8 Ep1027: The Normalization of Crisis in Bolivia. Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Professor Evan Ellis reports on the 49-day blockade in Bolivia that is strangling the economy under President Rodrigo Paz. Driven by Evo Morales and indigenous groups, the pro

    The John Batchelor Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2026 8:59


    The Normalization of Crisis in Bolivia. Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Professor Evan Ellis reports on the 49-day blockade in Bolivia that is strangling the economy under President Rodrigo Paz. Driven by Evo Morales and indigenous groups, the protests have caused significant GDP shrinkage and business closures. Despite being resource-rich, the country faces a fiscal crisis as natural gas reserves dwindle. 5

    The John Batchelor Show
    S8 Ep1029: SCHEDULE THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 6-18-26.

    The John Batchelor Show

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2026 6:23


    SCHEDULE THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 6-18-26.1922Colombia's Presidential Election and Abel de la Espriella. Guest: Mary Anastasia O'Grady. Mary Anastasia O'Grady discusses the upcoming Colombian election and frontrunner Abel de la Espriella. As a lawyer with multiple passports, de la Espriella positions himself as a disruptor similar to Donald Trump or Javier Milei. He advocates for building mega-prisons to confront gangs and reviving the hydrocarbon industry. 1Poverty and Economic Stagnation in Developing Nations. Guest: Veronique de Rugy. Veronique de Rugy examines why countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo remain in extreme poverty. She identifies institutional failures, such as a lack of property rights and predatory governments, as the primary causes of stagnation. Growth, she argues, is the only sufficient element to lift people out of poverty. 2Advancements in Small Satellite Propulsion. Guests: Paulo Lozano and Amelia "Mia" Bruno. Paulo Lozano and Mia Bruno introduce electro-spray thrusters utilizing green ionic liquid monopropellant for small satellites. This technology allows a single tank to fuel both efficient electric and high-thrust chemical maneuvers. Unlike toxic hydrazine, this fuel is safe and allows satellites greater mobility for Earth observation. 3Future Missions for Miniaturized Space Technology. Guests: Paulo Lozano and Amelia "Mia" Bruno. With an unlimited budget, Paulo Lozano envisions a fleet of autonomous small satellites exploring near-Earth asteroids for scientific value. Mia Bruno aims to use improved propulsion to reach the moons of Jupiter and Saturn much faster than current missions allow. They also discuss performing complex orbital plane changes using chemical maneuvers. 4The Normalization of Crisis in Bolivia. Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Professor Evan Ellis reports on the 49-day blockade in Bolivia that is strangling the economy under President Rodrigo Paz. Driven by Evo Morales and indigenous groups, the protests have caused significant GDP shrinkage and business closures. Despite being resource-rich, the country faces a fiscal crisis as natural gas reserves dwindle. 5Security Challenges in Colombia and Political Transitions in Peru. Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Evan Ellis discusses the ELN's influence in Colombia, noting that armed group activity has doubled since the 2016 peace agreement. He suggests that restoring security and government presence is vital for the middle class. In Peru, Keiko Fujimori holds a thin lead in a contested election supported by the diaspora. 6The Criminal Landscape in Venezuela and Regional Politics. Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Ellis details the rise and fall of the Tren de Aragua gang, which originated in Venezuelan prisons and spread across the Americas. A recent drone strike suggests potential cooperation between the U.S. and the Venezuelan regime to normalize the mining sector. Meanwhile, Brazil's Lula da Silva faces increasing regional isolation. 7Bukele's Security Transformation of El Salvador. Guest: Professor Evan Ellis. Professor Evan Ellis describes how President Nayib Bukele has dramatically improved security in El Salvador by imprisoning over 90,000 suspected gang members. This "Singapore-like" approach has revitalized commerce and public administration despite concerns over democratic erosion. The capital, San Salvador, now features new construction and increased safety. 8Ralph Waldo Emerson and the Roots of Transcendentalism. Guest: Bruce Nichols. Bruce Nichols discusses Ralph Waldo Emerson's return to Concord, Massachusetts, where he transitioned from a Unitarian minister to a public intellectual. Emerson became a "loadstone" for radicals like Henry David Thoreau, who initially improved his family's pencil business before focusing on nature and philosophy. Emerson's dissent sparked a broader intellectual movement. 9Amos Bronson Alcott and the Transcendentalist Identity. Guest: Bruce Nichols. Bruce Nichols introduces Amos Bronson Alcott, a self-educated thinker who revolutionized education through conversational, Socratic methods. Though his schools often failed financially, Alcott was supported by Emerson and became a key figure in the Transcendentalist movement. Transcendentalism emphasized finding higher spiritual truths or the "oversoul" within the universe. 10Nathaniel Hawthorne and the Literary Circle of Concord. Guest: Bruce Nichols. Bruce Nichols explores Nathaniel Hawthorne's move to Concord and his complex relationship with Transcendentalists like Emerson. Unlike the optimistic Emerson, Hawthorne's fiction focused on human tragedy and the presence of evil. He struggled financially, often competing with popular "scribbling women" for book sales while publishing short stories to make ends meet. 11The Extraordinary Life and Tragic Death of Margaret Fuller. Guest: Bruce Nichols. Bruce Nichols chronicles the life of Margaret Fuller, a pioneering feminist and journalist who served as the first female war correspondent. Fuller's intellectual prowess "wowed" Emerson, though her life ended tragically in a shipwreck off Fire Island. Some scholars believe Hawthorne modeled his character Hester Prynne after her. 12Japan's Energy Crisis and Economic Resilience. Guest: Lance Gatling. Lance Gatling discusses how the Strait of Hormuz crisis has driven Japanese crude oil import prices to record highs. To maintain stability, the government has tapped strategic reserves and subsidized fuel prices while increasing imports from the U.S. Despite the weak yen, Japanese exporters are booming, and the stock market has reached all-time highs. 13Japan's Future in Energy and Artificial Intelligence. Guest: Lance Gatling. Japan is working toward a goal of 40–50% renewable energy and 20% nuclear power by the mid-2030s. Lance Gatling notes that Japan remains a critical link in the semiconductor chain essential for the global AI boom. While circumspect about AI's authority, Japanese companies dominate the hardware manufacturing processes necessary for semiconductor production. 14The Moral Foundations of the American Revolution. Guest: David C. Rose. David C. Rose explains that the American Revolution was driven by men who considered themselves "independents" rather than rebels. Drawing on Adam Smith's Theory of Moral Sentiments, he argues that humans crave approval and follow cultural norms. Over time, these norms shifted toward "moral don'ts" or guardrails, fostering a freethinking mindset. 15Guardrails and the Psychology of Independence. Guest: David C. Rose. David Rose argues that the Revolution occurred because the British King violated the "guardrails" of his own power, losing the respect of his subjects. While tax issues were prominent in Boston, a more generalized feeling of disenfranchisement fueled the movement. The Founders ultimately chose independence when the reciprocity of decency and legitimacy failed. 16

    ESG Now
    Sustainable Finance Summit Pt.1 – Sarah Kapnick and John E. Morton

    ESG Now

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2026 34:27 Transcription Available


    This is the first of four episodes we did in partnership with Finance Montreal, recording panellists at their Sustainable Finance Summit. Today you'll hear from Dr. Sarah Kapnick, the ex-chief scientist of NOAA and how global head of climate advisory at JPMorgan, talking about the weirdening of our natural world is impact all our resources - from drought and the Colorado River to the soil health and how fertilizer shocks are hitting your food supply. And John E. Morton Head of Nature Finance and Investment at the World Wildlife Fund discussing why half of global GDP depends on nature becoming as important as climate in the eyes of investors.Enjoy!Episode Reading:Climate Intuition: Food security: The fates of farming and food in a warming worldClimate Intuition: Food security under pressure: Iran conflict disruptions and a brewing El NiñoIntegrating nature into financial decision-making Guests:Host: Mike Disabato, MSCI Sustainability & ClimateGuest: Dr. Sarah Kapnick, JPMorgan & John E. Morton, World Wildlife Fund

    Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
    Daybreak Weekend: US PCE, London Climate

    Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2026 38:22 Transcription Available


    Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the next U.S PCE and GDP data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to London Climate Action Week. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia CPI data. - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, previews U.S PCE and GDP data.- Avalon Pernell, Bloomberg Equities Reporter, focuses on 3 stocks for the week ahead.- Joe Wertz, Bloomberg Weather and Climate Reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- Olivia Rudgard, Bloomberg Green reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- James McIntyre- Bloomberg Economist Covering Australia and New Zealand, previews Australia CPI data.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition
    Daybreak Weekend: US PCE, London Climate

    Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia Edition

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2026 38:22 Transcription Available


    Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to the next U.S PCE and GDP data, along with a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to London Climate Action Week. In Asia – a look ahead to Australia CPI data. - Stuart Paul, US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, previews U.S PCE and GDP data.- Avalon Pernell, Bloomberg Equities Reporter, focuses on 3 stocks for the week ahead.- Joe Wertz, Bloomberg Weather and Climate Reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- Olivia Rudgard, Bloomberg Green reporter, to preview London Climate Action Week.- James McIntyre- Bloomberg Economist Covering Australia and New Zealand, previews Australia CPI data.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

    Capital Economics Weekly Briefing
    Tough economic choices in a fragile peace

    Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2026 23:49


    A peace deal that's already showing signs of strain. Central bankers still wrestling with inflation. A new Fed chair seeking reform. And a UK local election with implications for the bond market.It's been a busy week for macro and markets, and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to make sense of it all. Neil explains what the increasingly fragile US-Iran peace deal means for global oil supplies and the outlook for inflation and interest rates.  In his discussion, Neil reviews Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair, considers the outlook for US interest rates, examines mounting trade tensions between Europe and China, and explains why the UK's next prime minister may find fiscal promises difficult to keep. 

    Nightmare Success In and Out
    From Federal Prison to Fortune 500 Speaker | Rashmi Airan's Incredible Comeback Story

    Nightmare Success In and Out

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2026 65:14


    Rashmi Airan had it all—an Ivy League education, a successful law career, and a bright future.Then everything changed.After becoming entangled in a mortgage fraud scheme during the housing boom, Rashmi faced federal prosecution, prison, and the public collapse of the life she had spent decades building.But prison did not become her ending.Today, Rashmi is a globally recognized keynote speaker who has spoken for companies including Coca-Cola, Deloitte, Merck, Comcast, Caesars Entertainment, Hershey's, and GE Healthcare. Through her Rise Through It® framework and her new book ALL RISE, she helps leaders transform adversity into courage, accountability, and growth.In this unforgettable conversation with Brent Cassity, Rashmi shares her journey from ambition and success to failure, prison, and ultimately purpose.This is a story of owning your mistakes, rebuilding trust, and discovering that your worst moment does not have to define your future.Show sponsors: Navigating the challenges of white-collar crime? The White-Collar Support Group at Prisonist.org offers guidance, resources, and a community for those affected at prisonist.org. Protect your online reputation with Discoverability! Use code NIGHTMARE SUCCESS for an exclusive discount Visit Discoverability.co. Auto Plaza Direct "Your personal car concierge!" Let them handle every detail to find your perfect car autoplazadirect.com. Author Saffron Gustafson www.mynameissaffron.com, "My Name is Saffron." Author Nevin Shetty, "Second Chance Economics: How Hiring The Formerly Incarcerated Can Unlock $1 Trillion in GDP." www.secondchanceeconomics.com

    The Logistics of Logistics Podcast
    How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound with IANA's Andrew Sibold

    The Logistics of Logistics Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2026 48:48


    In "How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound with IANA's Andrew Sibold" Joe Lynch and Andrew Sibold, Director of Economics and Freight Policy at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), discuss how IANA's new predictive Intermodal Volume Index (IVI) helps logistics leaders navigate shifting market capacity and operational friction to successfully forecast the 2026 freight recovery.  About Andrew Sibold Andrew Sibold is the Director of Economics and Freight Policy at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), where he leads market analysis, research, and economic forecasting that informs both private capital strategy and public policy. Before IANA, he spent five years at the Federal Highway Administration as a financial and economic analyst, where his benefit-cost and net present value modeling helped adjudicate more than $12.1 billion in federal infrastructure grants. He came to economics through the U.S. Army, serving as an Armor officer who led logistics and operations on deployments across Europe and Central Asia. Andrew holds a Master of Public Policy from the University of Tennessee, as well as advanced degrees in economics, econometrics, and international relations. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland, with his wife and four children. About Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) The Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) is the leading industry trade association representing the combined interests of the intermodal freight community. Its membership spans the full ecosystem that moves containerized freight across modes — railroads, ocean carriers, ports and terminals, drayage and motor carriers, intermodal marketing companies, and equipment providers. IANA promotes the efficiency, safety, and growth of intermodal transportation through industry standards, professional education, government affairs, and data services. As the connective tissue of a sector that handles a substantial share of North American freight, IANA gives members a unified voice on policy and a shared infrastructure for operations. Increasingly, it also serves as a source of market intelligence, equipping members with the economic data and forecasting they need to navigate a volatile freight cycle. Key Takeaways: How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound In "How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound with IANA's Andrew Sibold" Joe Lynch and Andrew Sibold, Director of Economics and Freight Policy at the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), discuss how IANA's new predictive Intermodal Volume Index (IVI) helps logistics leaders navigate shifting market capacity and operational friction to successfully forecast the 2026 freight recovery.  IANA as the "Conductor" of the Intermodal Ecosystem: The Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) serves as the critical connective tissue and unified voice for a fragmented freight community. By connecting railroads, ocean carriers, ports, drayage motor carriers, and 3PLs, IANA acts as an industry "conductor" to harmonize operations across multiple transportation modes that handle a substantial share of North American freight. Eliminating Blind Spots with the Intermodal Volume Index (IVI): Historically, intermodal freight data has been fragmented and heavily lagging—with rail data delayed by a week and port data lagging by two to three months. Launched publicly in May, IANA's new IVI solves this industry pain point by acting as a real-time, seasonally adjusted "pulse check" on North American freight activity. Shifting from Lagging to Predictive Capacity Planning: Unlike traditional freight indicators that only look backward (like GDP or older equipment data), the IVI functions as a predictive bridge. By utilizing a mathematical process to bring historical data into the present and factoring in seasonal fluctuations, it provides mid-market shippers, 3PLs, and asset-based carriers with a forward-looking forecast to confidently adjust capacity planning. Unconventional Market Strength in 2026: The IVI is currently printing quite strong—tracking right around 106 for June, which is 6% higher than the pre-COVID baseline. While total import container volumes (TEUs) have softened due to tariff effects, intermodal volumes are rebounding rapidly due to a surge in high-value domestic manufacturing freight, driven heavily by investments in data centers and infrastructure built to support modern AI. Reducing Operational Friction via Standardization: Intermodal logistics inherently suffers from handoff friction between different actors, leading to costly demurrage, detention, and lost productivity. IANA mitigates this administrative nightmare by managing standardized operational frameworks—most notably the Uniform Intermodal Interchange and Facilities Agreement (UIIA)—which serves as a single, universal contract that lowers industry insurance costs and streamlines driver registrations. Navigating Volatility and Truck-to-Rail Conversion: Global supply chains remain highly volatile due to geopolitical factors, international conflicts, and oil infrastructure damage keeping global energy prices elevated. When diesel prices spike and over-the-road trucking capacity tightens due to shifting domestic regulatory and immigration policies, the IVI helps transportation managers identify exactly when and where rail capacity is tightening so they can strategically lock in contractual rates. The Competitive Advantage of Modal Conversion: Beyond operational efficiency, IANA empowers its members to turn modal conversion into a measurable economic and environmental advantage. Because rail transport is significantly cleaner and greener than over-the-road trucking—with a single stacked rail car capable of moving the equivalent of multiple trucks—shippers are increasingly leveraging intermodal data to hit corporate sustainability mandates as the 2026 market recovers. Learn More About How to Predict the 2026 Intermodal Rebound Andrew Sibold | Linkedin IANA | Linkedin Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) Scale: The Search for Simplicity and Unity in the Complexity of Life, from Cells to Cities, Companies to Ecosystems by Geoffrey West The Box (Levinson book) – Wikipedia The Logistics of Logistics Podcast If you enjoy the podcast, please leave a positive review, subscribe, and share it with your friends and colleagues. The Logistics of Logistics Podcast: Google, Apple, Castbox, Spotify, Stitcher, PlayerFM, Tunein, Podbean, Owltail, Libsyn, Overcast Check out The Logistics of Logistics on Youtube

    VoxDev Talks
    S7 Ep31: Nonelite Women's Participation in Politics

    VoxDev Talks

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 18, 2026 31:53


    The usual way to measure women's power in politics is to count the seats they hold in parliament. But most women who take part in politics never stand for office. They vote, attend meetings, petition, protest, or try to get the water supply fixed. In this week's VoxDev Talk, Soledad Artiz Prillaman of Stanford talks to Tim Phillips about her new review of the research into non-elite women's participation in politics, written with Peace Medie (University of Bristol).They are not elite women with less money, she argues. They want different things and face different constraints. Social norms can prevent them from achieving the change they want. But in the Global South there is evidence that non-elite women are using collective action to gain access to politics, and using that access to renegotiate the norms that hold them back, rather than waiting for those norms to shift first.The research behind this episode:Medie, Peace A., and Soledad Artiz Prillaman. 2026. "Nonelite Women's Participation in Politics." Annual Review of Political Science, vol. 29.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Soledad Artiz Prillaman. 2026. "Nonelite Women's Participation in Politics." VoxDev Talks (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestSoledad Artiz Prillaman is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Stanford University and faculty director of the Inclusive Democracy and Development Lab. Her research spans comparative political economy, development, and gender, with a focus on South Asia and on how and when women gain access to politics, both as citizens and as representatives. She is the author of The Patriarchal Political Order: The Making and Unraveling of the Gendered Participation Gap in India (Cambridge University Press, 2023).The paper is co-authored with Peace A. Medie, Associate Professor in the School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies at the University of Bristol. Her work covers gender, security, and politics in Africa, including the campaigns to end violence against women.Research cited in this episodeElite and nonelite women. The paper defines eliteness by access to political power, not by office held or income alone. Elites include elected representatives, but also academics and business executives whose position gives them access to power. Nonelites are those who lack that access. The distinction matters because policy aimed at getting more women into elite positions only helps everyone else if elite and nonelite women want the same things, and the evidence that they do is thin.The income puzzle. At the individual level, income is generally uncorrelated with women's turnout; at the national level, GDP predicts nonelite women's participation only in some places. Women in paid work do participate more, but the driver appears to be the networks and information that come with a job, not the wage.Vote agency. Showing up to vote is not the same as voting freely. Asked whether they would vote for their own preferred party or the one a male gatekeeper preferred, at least half of women in some South Asian settings say they would defer. Work by Sara Khan shows that the women with the least agency are those whose preferences differ most from the men who hold power over them.Varieties of patriarchy. All societies are patriarchal, but patriarchy operates differently across them. In parts of South Asia it takes the form of explicit, socially sanctioned control over where women go and how they vote. In the United States and Europe it shows up earlier, as socialisation, producing large gender gaps in stated political interest. Same underlying force, different mechanics, different policy conclusions.Quotas. More than 100 countries have adopted some form of electoral gender quota, making it the most widespread women's empowerment policy in the world. The evidence on whether quotas help nonelite women is mixed; they raise some women's participation in some places, but in others the effect is null or negative. In India, Prillaman notes campaign material for quota seats that pairs the woman candidate's name with a man's photograph.Collective action. Networks outside the home, through women's groups, microcredit groups, churches, unions or friendship circles, raise women's participation by widening their information and giving them cover against backlash. Prillaman argues that in the Global South women are increasingly using collective action to gain access to politics, and using that access to renegotiate norms, rather than waiting for norms to change first.More from VoxDevWhere are the Indian female politicians?, an interview with Lakshmi Iyer on why a woman winning office in India does not lead to more women standing next time.Related reading on VoxDevGrassroots party activism by women promotes equal political participation, in which Tanushree Goyal finds that women politicians in Delhi recruit women activists, narrowing gender gaps in political knowledge and participation.Women's microcredit groups empower women politically, in which Prillaman shows that microcredit groups raise women's political participation in India by building their networks, not their bank balances.

    Retail Retold
    The Treasure Hunt Economy

    Retail Retold

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 34:48


    Just how niche is the secondhand retail market?Secondhand retail is one of the fastest-growing forces in retail, with the market expected to approach $80 billion by 2030. According to America's Thrift CEO Chris Homewood, that scale would make the category larger than the GDP of more than 130 countries.But the story is bigger than growth.As consumers spend more of their lives in digital environments, they are increasingly seeking experiences that feel tangible, personal, and unexpected. Thrift shopping delivers exactly that. Unlike traditional e-commerce, where shoppers search for a specific item, secondhand retail is built around discovery. The thrill comes from finding something you weren't looking for, a premium jacket for $9, a collectible hidden in plain sight, or a one-of-a-kind piece that turns a routine shopping trip into a treasure hunt.That experience is resonating with a new generation of shoppers. More than 60% of Gen Z consumers now shop secondhand, driven by a combination of value, sustainability, and a desire for experiences that feel authentic. The result is a customer base that spans income levels and demographics, proving that thrift has evolved far beyond its traditional roots.For America's Thrift, the opportunity is clear. The company operates 35 stores across the Southeast and is pursuing disciplined expansion, opening approximately five stores annually while building a footprint that stretches northward. Supported by strong community partnerships and a business model centered on convenience, the company is positioning itself for long-term growth.As retail continues to evolve, one thing remains constant: people still crave discovery. And in an increasingly digital world, the joy of finding something unexpected may be one of the most powerful drivers of all.What You'll HearWhy the secondhand market is projected to approach $80 billion by 2030The surprising reason Halloween is the biggest season in thrift retailHow thrift retailers source, process, and price millions of donated itemsWhy Gen Z is helping drive the growth of secondhand shoppingHow America's Thrift is expanding through profitable store growthWhat landlords and shopping center owners are seeing in the rise of thrift retailChapters00:01 – Chris Homewood's retail journeyFrom the Marine Corps to Circuit City, Target, Ross, private equity turnarounds, and now leading America's Thrift.04:08 – What is America's Thrift Stores?A look at the business model, footprint, mission, and charity partnerships.05:57 – Who shops at thrift stores today?Why thrifting now appeals to both value shoppers and younger consumers.07:21 – How thrift retailers acquire inventoryThe donation ecosystem that fuels the business.08:22 – The operations behind inventory flowWhy convenience, processing speed, and execution matter more than buying.10:49 – The power of fresh inventoryHow nine-day inventory turns keep customers coming back.13:21 – Resale, apparel, and the growth of secondhandUnderstanding the size and trajectory of the market.15:06 – Store size, pricing, and profitabilityHow America's Thrift evaluates locations and prices merchandise.16:44 – The growth strategyWhy the company is focused on disciplined expansion and profitable new stores.23:37 – Why secondhand retail is acceleratingThe consumer trends creating long-term momentum for thrift.26:41 – How traditional retailers view thriftCompetition, co-tenancy, and traffic generation.29:28 – E-commerce versus physical retailWhy brick-and-mortar remains central to the thrift experience.34:01 – The future of America's Thrift StoresWhat's next for the company and the broader secondhand category.

    Headline News
    US Fed holds interest rate steady

    Headline News

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 4:45


    The US Federal Reserve has kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75 percent. The median GDP is projected to grow by 2.2 percent in 2026.

    Focus
    Polish civilians take army training course amid spectre of war with Russia

    Focus

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 5:41


    Poland, which is regularly targeted by Russian hybrid attacks, takes the threat of war with Moscow very seriously. The country now spends nearly 5 percent of its GDP on defence, and aims to train its civilians too, so they will know how to react if war breaks out. To this end, it has introduced a programme of one-day training sessions with the army, entitled "Always Ready", which have turned out to be a runaway success. FRANCE 24's Adrien Sarlat and Jan Garstecki joined some of the participants at a session near Warsaw.

    ICT Pulse Podcast
    ICTP 404: Building global reach through industry collaboration, with SIMIA, the Curaçao Tech Export Association

    ICT Pulse Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 17, 2026 63:16


    Around the world, tech export associations have helped software firms access new markets, influence policy, share knowledge, and compete globally. We are joined by Clark Russel and Franco Diaz, from the Curaçao Tech Export Association, also known as SIMIA, to discuss the journey and impact to date. Some of the areas our conversation covered include:   *  what inspired the founding of SIMIA in 2020;   *  how to foster collaboration among competing software companies;   *  how SIMIA's work has contributed to growing Curaçao's net export GDP; and   *  the top 3 lessons from Curaçao's tech export journey that other Caribbean countries could adopt.    The episode, show notes and links to some of the things mentioned during the episode can be found on the ICT Pulse Podcast Page (www.ict-pulse.com/category/podcast/)       Enjoyed the episode?  Do rate the show and leave us a review!       Also, connect with us on: Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/ICTPulse/   Instagram –  https://www.instagram.com/ictpulse/   Twitter –  https://twitter.com/ICTPulse   LinkedIn –  https://www.linkedin.com/company/3745954/admin/   Join our mailing list: http://eepurl.com/qnUtj    Music credit: The Last Word (Oui Ma Chérie), by Andy Narrell Podcast editing support:  Mayra Bonilla Lopez   ---------------

    The Muckrake Political Podcast
    For His Own Birthday, Trump Gifts Iran $300 Billion

    The Muckrake Political Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2026 50:50


    Visit patreon.com/muckrakepodcast to join the Patreon, support the ad-free show, and gain access to the Weekender, special events, and the Discord server. Co-hosts Jared Yates Sexton and Nick Hauselman break down Donald Trump's highly publicized 80th birthday peace plan, which is actually just an extension of the ceasefire with Iran. Jared details the staggering public and private costs, including $24 billion in unfrozen assets and a minimum of $300 billion in American-funded war reparations to a nation whose entire GDP matches that amount. While JD Vance takes to the airwaves to compare the deal to the unconditional surrenders of World War II, Nick and Jared expose the framework as a massive vehicle for market manipulation designed to kick economic and energy consequences down the road while bypassing crucial nuclear considerations. The corporate circus continues on the front lawn of the White House, which Trump transformed into an octagon for UFC 250. The duo reacts to the garish spectacle, which included fighter entrances from the Oval Office, flyovers, and fighter Josh Hoke's bizarre post-fight interview antics. They also dig into the deleted tweet controversy involving Eric Trump allegedly hunting for insider fighter data to place bets via direct message. Finally, they confront the reality of unchecked tech capitalism as Elon Musk officially becomes the world's first trillionaire, propped up by billions in government subsidies to form a new tech-military-industrial complex. The hosts close with a look at the quiet, bipartisan surrender to artificial intelligence as the Trump administration readies to buy shares in OpenAI while competitors like Anthropic warn of autonomous self-replication.

    이진우의 손에 잡히는 경제
    [손경제] 6/17(수) 이란 재건기금 | 호르무즈 수수료 | 日 기준금리 인상

    이진우의 손에 잡히는 경제

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2026


    [깊이 있는 경제뉴스] 1) 美, 450조 규모 이란 재건기금 추진.. 민간·동맹 중심? 2) 호르무즈 무료 통항, 60일뿐? 이란 "수수료 받겠다" 3) 일본 은행, 기준금리 1%로 인상.. 31년 만에 최고치 - 김치형 경제뉴스 큐레이터 - 이코노미스트 라예진 기자 [친절한 경제] 인공지능이 발전하면 정말 GDP가 줄어들까요? - 청취자 우경석 씨

    The Investing Podcast
    EU Approves US Trade Deal at 15% Tariffs, BOJ Hikes Without Ueda + Andrew on Elon | June 16, 2026 – Morning Market Briefing

    The Investing Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2026 21:17


    Andrew and Ben discuss the BOJ hiking rates 25bps to 1% without Governor Ueda and signaling more hikes ahead despite a 250% debt/GDP ratio, the European Parliament ratifying the US-EU trade deal 440-151 with 15% tariffs on most EU goods and preferential access for US farm produce, the Huntsman-Olin merger creating OlinHuntsman with $400 million in synergies, and growing skepticism around the Iran deal as bonds refuse to buy in and disagreements remain over Hormuz tolls, the nuclear timeline, and Israel's posture on Lebanon.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

    Generations Radio
    Family Economy or Bust - Rory Groves on Surviving the Coming Collapse

    Generations Radio

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 16, 2026 42:16


    With national debt at 124% of GDP and the stock market overpriced by historic measures, Kevin is joined by Rory Groves to discuss the coming economic earthquake of 2027-2028. They compare today's debt-to-GDP ratios with Larry Burkett's 1991 warnings...lay out a biblical vision for rebuilding family economy...and exhort every family to have a vision and mission beyond the paycheck.

    Money Life with Chuck Jaffe
    Man Group's Hooper: A priced-for-perfection market is poised for trouble

    Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2026 55:02


    Kristina Hooper, chief market strategist for Man Group, says the market is entering a "greater discernment phase," where companies have been priced for massive growth and "incredibly high standards," setting up potential disappointment as investors become more picky while the AI revolution plays out. Hooper says this is a natural progression, one that investors saw during the Internet boom, as it started to fade. "I don't consider it a bubble," Hooper says, "but I do think that there is a timer that's ticking. Many investors are expecting to see monetization sooner rather than later; we don't know how much time they will give some of these companies." Hooper says the market's strong start to this year has lowered her expectations for the rest of the year, making her more pessimistic, raising the possibility of a technical recession — two quarters of negative GDP growth — as the economy works through its issues. In "The Week That Is,"  Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that the record-breaking initial-public offering of SpaceX didn't change his mind about owning the stock, and in fact raised more issues about whether the hype around the company's "total addressable market" is real. He also discussed whether 2026 — with Anthropic and OpenAI also set for huge stock launches — is the "Year of the IPO," warning it may be more a time when venture capitalists are cashing out. Plus, he examines an alarming statistic about planned capital expenditures as a percentage of incoming revenues for the hyperscalers, a level currently set so high it's reminiscent of the end of the Internet boom. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, revisits Cava Group, which was first in The Danger Zone before its IPO in June of 2023. The stock is up about 100% since last November, but Guske says that just raises the potential for it to crater, again (it lost half of its value late last year), which is why it's back in the Danger Zone now.  

    A History of Japan
    Making a Miracle (Economics 1955-1972)

    A History of Japan

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 15, 2026 36:50 Transcription Available


    The Economic Miracle period witnessed, as its name suggests, tremendous economic growth throughout Japan. However, that growth came at a cost to Japan's organized working class as well as white collar workers whose pursuit of productivity often compromised their health.Support the show My latest novel, "Califia's Crusade," is now available at Amazon, Barnes & Noble, Kobo, Apple Books, Bookshop.org, and many other online platforms! 

    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast
    Stock Market Hits Record 238% of U.S. GDP

    Real Estate News: Real Estate Investing Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2026 2:54


    The U.S. stock market has reached a record valuation of 238% of GDP, far above levels seen during the Dot-Com Bubble. In this episode, Kathy Fettke breaks down what that means for investors, why some analysts are raising caution flags, and why many real estate investors continue to favor cash-flowing assets backed by real-world demand.   Want a FREE pdf? Visit www.Realwealth.com/AffordableMarkets to learn more.    Source: https://www.benzinga.com/markets/economic-data/26/06/53083450/worse-than-dot-com-bubble-us-market-valuation-hits-record-238-of-gdp

    Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu
    SpaceX IPO Day, We Won The Iran War Again, & US Tops Oil Export List | The Tom Bilyeu Show Live

    Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026 90:05


    What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:If you want my help...STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER: https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20showSCALING a business: see if you qualify here.: https://tombilyeu.com/callGet my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.:https://tombilyeu.com/**********************************************************************If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you.**********************************************************************FOLLOW TOM:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=enTwitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeuYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeuKetone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodPlaud: Get 10% off with code IMPACT at https://plaud.ai/impactWhatnot:Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order. AT&T Business: Switch to AT&T Business at business.att.comShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactTruemed: Check your eligibility and start saving at https://truemed.com/impactIncogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impactPique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impactIn this Friday edition of The Tom Bilyeu Show Live, Tom and Drew dig into a packed news day spanning geopolitics, markets, tech, and a long philosophical tangent on immortality. They open on Iran, breaking down the leaked 14-point "deal" circulating via Iranian state media — the $24 billion in frozen assets, the naval blockade, the Strait of Hormuz, and reconstruction demands — and why Tom is deeply skeptical that anything beyond a memorandum of understanding gets signed, plus what a bad deal could cost Trump heading into the midterms. From there, they pivot to a heated exchange over the SpaceX IPO and the Globe and Mail's "how to properly hate Elon Musk" headline, using it as a springboard into the psychology of resentment, the mechanics of transformational-tech bubbles, and a warning to retail investors about becoming "exit liquidity." The conversation moves through California's voting rules, ballot harvesting, and Trump's Save America Act and reconciliation push (with an extended back-and-forth on states' rights, the Constitution, and the Supreme Court), the UK's proposed device-level content-scanning law and the surveillance-state implications, a DOJ child-smuggling indictment tied to border policy, and the Epstein/Zorro Ranch mystery. They close on AI — unpacking Yann LeCun's argument against LLMs and AGI in favor of specialized world models — before spinning off into a wide-ranging debate about whether you'd actually want to live forever, the disposable-male hypothesis, and a contentious Alex Karp clip about GDP and gender.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

    Dropping Bombs
    The 2026 Collapse: Bitcoin Crashes, Stock Market Drops 50%, and XRP Explodes

    Dropping Bombs

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026 69:20


    This episode was sponsored by Cardiff & Digital Ascension Group    LightSpeed VT: https://www.lightspeedvt.com/ Dropping Bombs Podcast: https://www.droppingbombs.com/ Dropping Bombs delivers its most anticipated return yet with Jake Claver, the SEC-registered crypto wealth manager and Chairman of Digital Ascension Group — back by overwhelming demand to double down on every call he made last time.   From the Genius Act passing to the Strait of Hormuz shutting down, Jake's predictions have been playing out in real time. Now he's raising the stakes — the reverse carry trade unwind, Satoshi's wallets moving, a BlackRock XRP ETF, and a 30–50% stock market drop in a matter of days. He breaks down DAG's new Bitcoin fund backed by Fidelity, why quantum computing is Bitcoin's silent assassin, why XRP is still his only personal holding, and why AI agents transacting 24/7 on crypto rails will blow every GDP ceiling humanity has ever known.   This conversation goes places — Epstein, AI agents, insider trading in Congress, the tokenization of the stock market, and whether the global financial reset has already been scripted.   This is the conversation most people never get access to. Don't waste it.    

    Thoughts on the Market
    India's Next Market Phase

    Thoughts on the Market

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026 12:57


    Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya joins Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist Ridham Desai to break down India's macro outlook, capital flows and sector opportunities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist.Ridham Desai: And I'm Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist.Chetan Ahya: Today, the biggest takeaways from our India Investment Forum in Mumbai. From the shifting outlook for India's markets and flows to the sectors driving the next phase of corporate earnings and CapEx.It's Friday, June 12th at 7PM in Hong Kong.Ridham Desai: And 4:30PM in Mumbai.Chetan Ahya: Ridham, the Morgan Stanley's India Investment Forum took place in Mumbai last week, and I was there with you. These events are a great opportunity to speak with investors who come across from the globe to attend. Now that we have had a few days to process the conversations, what stood out to you? What was the biggest shift in investor sentiment that you picked on?Ridham Desai: So, Chetan, I think it's been the case of a continuing story about India. Domestic investors look that they are bullish, and foreign investors continue to stay rather cautious on the Indian markets. We could see that in the overall attendance. In contrast, I think domestic investors were looking for the next stock that they wanted to buy. They were seeking opportunities, and there was a lot of interest in meeting companies.Before we get into markets, let me turn back to you from a macro side. India's growth story remains strong, but relative growth appears to be cooling. This is in contrast to markets like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and the US. How should investors think about India's macro positioning in that context?Chetan Ahya: So, Ridham, when I look at the macro data in India, they're all indicating a meaningful upside in the growth trend. So I'll just cite two key cyclically sensitive macro data points. One is the banking system credit growth, and number two is the auto sales, particularly the passenger vehicle. So bank credit growth is growing as of the last biweekly data point that we got. It's growing at seventeen point seven percent year-on-year, and car sales are growing at twenty-seven percent in the month of May.But as you were mentioning earlier, the relative growth opportunity is a challenge for India and to just share the numbers on the earnings growth for the first quarter that we saw across the region. So we saw Korea's earnings growth at one hundred and seventy percent. We saw Taiwan's earnings growth at forty-eight percent year on year. Japan at thirty-three percent. The US has seen a growth of about twenty-seven percent year on year.So in that context, when India is reporting thirteen percent growth, it's becoming a challenge for investors to look for opportunities in India relative to other markets. Either they are more focused on the other markets than India. So let me come back to you, Ridham. Staying with the investment implications, India projects stable valuations and strong corporate earnings, but its relative growth advantage has narrowed. How should investors reconcile this contradiction?Ridham Desai: If I go back thirty-five years, as long as we have the MSCI index series, and as far as I have been in this industry, this is the lowest relative multiple that India has traded at. And indeed, growth last year was weak. But if you see QOQ, we have started to accelerate. The broad market earnings growth trajectory has shown a doubling in the quarter that ended March over the quarter that ended December.But it underscores the point you made about the relative growth complex. It's clearly not in India's favor. And a lot of the capital in the world is short-term oriented, and it cares for what growth is gonna come in the next quarter or two. And that's the state of the market right now.However, what I would say is that equities is a quintessential long-duration asset class. In the long run, what matters is terminal growth. I don't really think India's terminal growth has moved much. It remains far superior to a lot of other countries around the world. And therefore, I think this does present itself as a great opportunity for a long-term investor while the markets are digesting this relative growth disadvantage that India seems to have over the next, say, three or four quarters.Chetan Ahya: And Ridham, another theme from the forum was policy action to attract capital. Policymakers announced a number of measures right as our conference ended and they aimed to withdraw withholding tax on debt investors, also providing banks with an incentive to take up more dollar borrowing. How central are these measures to sustaining foreign inflows into Indian markets?Ridham Desai: I think the measures taken by policymakers are very important, probably amongst the most important policy actions this year. The removal of taxation on debt investors will make a difference. The provision for hedging to external commercial borrowings as well as to foreign currency deposits will make a difference.It should boost flows into India over the next twelve months. That said, these measures may not help the equity flows because the equity flows, I think, are going to depend on the relative growth situation. Now, there's only that much India can do to lift its growth. It may accelerate to the high teens. So growth elsewhere needs to decelerate for equity investors to return. Or India needs to see the start of a major IPO cycle because in primary issuances, foreigners do come to buy, and that may change the net picture on FBI flows in the equity markets.But as far as the debt markets are concerned, I think the measures taken last week are going to prove to be quite potent, and India should see the benefits accruing over the next few weeks and months.Chetan, from your perspective, how important is the policy backdrop right now in determining whether India can keep attracting long-term global capital despite more competitive returns elsewhere in the short run?Chetan Ahya: So Ridham, I think the key focus for the policymakers had been with these measures to boost short-term capital inflows to stabilize the currency. There has been a balance of payment deficit. So from that perspective, the short-term capital inflow augmentation effort as you mentioned, has been the correct move. But from the long-term perspective, we think that the government needs to boost competitiveness of the Indian manufacturing. Because in the context in which AI could affect India's services exports, there is a need to augment more export receipts from the manufacturing sector. At the same time, if they improve the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector, it will help India to attract more capital inflows from long-term investors for the purpose of FDI.And the good news is that the government is on it. They are taking a number of measures to boost that competitiveness in the manufacturing. But we think that there is more action needed and hopefully in the intention to improve the balance of payment dynamics and exports from manufacturing sector, we will see more actions from the government in the coming months.Ridham Desai: Chetan, you've also written extensively about the structural capital spending cycle in Asia and India. Can you walk us through the key details here, especially in the Indian context?Chetan Ahya: I think the key story that we are observing, it's sort of more or less global, but definitely very clearly seen in Asia, that there seems to be a super cycle for CapEx as well as industrial activity. This CapEx cycle is effectively driven by spending in four key sectors, and that is AI and AI-related digital infrastructure, energy, defense, and industrial onshoring-related CapEx.Now, as far as India is concerned, we are seeing investments in all the four segments that I just mentioned. In fact, it's seeing a significant amount of activity in the space of energy. And, similarly, we are seeing a lot of policy measures, I mentioned earlier, in terms of boosting manufacturing competitiveness.But at the heart of it is government's effort to onshore industrial supply chain. So India's CapEx has also inflected higher. Having said that, the difference between India and, let's say, North Asia, which is Korea, Taiwan, Japan and China, is that they are also a big player in the export market for capital goods when there is global CapEx cycle upswing happening. Nevertheless, India will see the benefit of this CapEx cycle in terms of its own growth push, as well as improvement in productivity.So Ridham, how would you think about the sectoral opportunity within the Indian markets?Ridham Desai: We see a lot of interest in some of these sectors which you mentioned. But actually, I would like to start off with financials. I see the banks in a very sweet spot. Balance sheets are in pristine condition. The interest rate cycle has troughed, which means margins for the banks have also bottomed and credit growth is finally accelerating. If this CapEx cycle unfolds like the way you are describing it, I think financials will stand to gain the most.And interestingly, the valuations are quite good, both on an absolute as well as on a relative basis. Also, of course, investors can go directly into those sectors which are doing this capital spend. Energy to start with, semiconductors, fertilizers, data centers and aerospace.The only thing to note here is that not everywhere are the valuations attractive enough because in some cases the market has recognized the coming growth cycle and has started to price that in. So we have to be careful about the valuations. But I think financials and industrials are clearly great opportunities in the context of this CapEx recovery that India is likely to see in the coming five years.Chetan Ahya: And additionally, the most requested companies at the summit, Ridham, were consumer sector companies. What do you think investors are looking for at this sector over others?Ridham Desai: So, Chetan, I think from a structural perspective, the Indian consumer is quite clearly the best place to be. In fact, I would say that it's the leverage that India enjoys over the rest of the world.The one point five billion people in this country are split across, say, a hundred and fifty cohorts of ten million each, and each of these cohorts have got different consumption opportunities. So depending on what product or service you're offering to your consumers, there's a market in India, and which in nominal terms is growing between ten and fifteen percent.As we know, last year India accounted for something around seventeen or eighteen percent of global GDP growth, which means depending again on what you are selling to your consumer, India could be between ten and hundred percent of your revenue growth. So India's consumer is something that hardly anybody can avoid.So in summary, Chetan, when I look at it from an investment opportunity, financials, industrials, and consumption, not necessarily in that particular order, are probably the best places for investors to look at. However, IT services, I think could be the dark horse. It's a sector right now which is disrupted or potentially disrupted by AI, and there's a lot of confusion there.But I think as the dust settles on this, it may emerge as one of the most interesting areas for investors to look at. So there's a lot of stuff in India happening right now. I think growth is accelerating. Valuations are looking quite interesting. In fact, the best that they've been in many, many years.Trading performance suggests that investors are not positioned at all. And if things start looking up, then India could be a very good market in the coming twelve months.Chetan Ahya: Ridham, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ridham Desai: Great speaking with you, ChetanChetan Ahya: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy our Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

    FLF, LLC
    U.S. Debt Crosses Dangerous Threshold As States Push to Axe Property Tax [The Sentinel Report]

    FLF, LLC

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 12, 2026


    America just crossed a DANGEROUS milestone with the national debt that should trouble everyone, regardless of politics. The debt is now above 100 percent of national gross domestic product, or GDP, explains Alex Newman in this episode of The Sentinel Report. It must be addressed before catastrophe. Thankfully, the affordability crisis might finally receive long-overdue attention in Midwestern and Southern states this year through the elimination of property taxes. Newman and Liberty Sentinel COO and journalist Andrew Muller analyze Florida's plan to phase out property taxes. Now other states are watching and following suit. In other good news, Tina Peters, the former Mesa County clerk, is being released after a legal battle that captivated election integrity activists nationwide. After the news segment, Sam Anthony, the founder of YourNews joins Newman to breakdown how the fake media lies to you discuss California’s war on citizen journalism. Later, Cindy Jenkins, the founder of the Healthcare Accountability Initiative, joins the show to blow the whistle on critical flaws in our healthcare system, and finally, Mark and Amber Archer, the founders of Fearless Features, discuss how to be free in Christ.

    Global News Podcast
    UK defence secretary resigns over military spending

    Global News Podcast

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 24:57


    Britain's defence secretary, John Healey, has resigned, accusing Prime Minister Keir Starmer of failing to commit the resources needed to protect the nation from rising threats. Mr Healey said a long-delayed investment plan fell well short of what was required to bring defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 - a NATO target. He highlighted Mr Starmer's recent warning that Russia could attack the alliance as soon as that year.Also: Iran says its ceasefire with the US is now practically meaningless after a second night of airstrikes. Pope Leo is visiting the Canary Islands and meeting migrants who survived the Atlantic crossing to reach Spanish territory. With the World Cup about to kick off in Mexico City, we get a look behind the scenes at the Azteca Stadium. Australia begins a huge inquiry into unsolved murders and disappearances. New research reveals that people have a natural tendency to veer to the left when walking. And we hear about one woman's mission to spot every butterfly species in Denmark - and what she discovered along the way.The Global News Podcast brings you the breaking news you need to hear, as it happens. Listen for the latest headlines and current affairs from around the world. Politics, economics, climate, business, technology, health – we cover it all with expert analysis and insight. Get the news that matters, delivered twice a day on weekdays and daily at weekends, plus special bonus episodes reacting to urgent breaking stories. Follow or subscribe now and never miss a moment.Get in touch: globalpodcast@bbc.co.ukPhoto: John Healey, who has resigned as Britain's defence secretary, delivering a speech at an event in MayCredit: PA

    Nightmare Success In and Out
    Mayor, Governor Candidate, Federal Inmate: Scott Maddox's Untold Story

    Nightmare Success In and Out

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2026 84:14


    Scott Maddox spent decades at the center of Florida politics.He served as Mayor of Tallahassee, chaired the Florida Democratic Party, and ran statewide campaigns for Attorney General and Governor. He was widely viewed as one of Florida's rising political stars.Then came the federal investigation, public scandal, conviction, and prison sentence that changed everything.In this candid conversation, Scott joins Brent Cassity to discuss the pressures of politics, the realities of federal prosecution, surviving a public downfall, life inside federal prison, and the difficult road to rebuilding after losing power, reputation, and freedom.This episode is ultimately about resilience, accountability, and discovering who you are when the titles, status, and influence are stripped away.If you've ever faced failure, public criticism, or a life-changing setback, Scott's story offers a powerful perspective on surviving the fall and finding purpose on the other side.Show sponsors: Navigating the challenges of white-collar crime? The White-Collar Support Group at Prisonist.org offers guidance, resources, and a community for those affected at prisonist.org. Protect your online reputation with Discoverability! Use code NIGHTMARE SUCCESS for an exclusive discount Visit Discoverability.co. Auto Plaza Direct "Your personal car concierge!" Let them handle every detail to find your perfect car autoplazadirect.com. Author Saffron Gustafson www.mynameissaffron.com, "My Name is Saffron." Author Nevin Shetty, "Second Chance Economics: How Hiring The Formerly Incarcerated Can Unlock $1 Trillion in GDP." www.secondchanceeconomics.com

    Why Is This Happening? with Chris Hayes
    The AI End Game: Boom to Bust?

    Why Is This Happening? with Chris Hayes

    Play Episode Listen Later Jun 9, 2026 55:23


    There's a lot to unpack about the economic effects of artificial intelligence. It's clear that artificial intelligence is having a moment (to say the least) and that it has a profound impact on global GDP. But is it just a boom that will bust? Ed Zitron, author and host of the “Better Offline” podcast, is deeply worried about the long-term viability of the industry. He points out that AI lacks the basic traits that have been associated with previous software booms. This raises the question: is AI running more on unsustainable costs and vibes rather than long-term profit potential? According to Ed, the answer is clear.  Sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts to listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads. You'll also get exclusive bonus content from this and other shows. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.