Podcasts about gdp

Johann Kurtz returns to TFTC to explain why young people are broke despite rising real wages and falling unemployment. Kurtz and Marty Bent break down the measurement problem buried inside GDP and inflation data, the two-income trap, collapsing home ownership, and the real cost of living in a low-trust society. They dig into social capital, status games, the fertility collapse, and why tight-knit virtue-driven communities still produce large families. A grounded macro conversation about money, family formation, and building a life worth living. Johann on X: https://x.com/JohannKurtz Johann on Substack: https://substack.com/@becomingnoble Find the Home Mining Playbook here: https://www.tftc.io/home-mining-energy-playbook STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Block: Cash App: For a limited time, new customers can get $21 added to their balance. Just use code TFTC10 when you sign up, and send at least $5 to a friend in the first two weeks. Terms apply. Bitcoin services by Block, Inc. See the Bitcoin disclosures at cash.app/legal/podcast. Square: Visit http://square.com/go/tftc for up to $200 off eligible Square hardware. Bitkey: Use code TFTC10 for 10% off the new Bitkey. Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/ Disclosure: Bitcoin services are provided by Block, Inc. Bitcoin services are not licensable activity in all U.S. states and territories, and not all services are available in all states. Bitkey is not available in New York. Block, Inc. operates in New York as Block of Delaware and is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Bitcoin is a non-deposit, non-bank product that is not FDIC insured and involves risk, including monetary loss. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures: https://help.cash.app/btcdisclosures Get up to $200 off Square hardware when you sign up at http://square.com/go/tftc! #squarepartner. Offer expires December 31, 2026 at 11:59 pm PST. Offer for $40 off the cost of one Square Stand, $75 off the cost of one Square Terminal, $100 off the cost of one Square Handheld, or $200 off the cost of one Square Register, excluding applicable taxes. Limited to one discount per product type per seller account. Each code is limited to one redemption per account holder. Valid for new Square customers located in the US only. Offer not valid with guest checkout. Square reserves the right to modify, revoke or cancel the offer at any time. Offer cannot be combined with any other coupon. Void where prohibited, not redeemable for cash, and non-transferable. #squarepartner #blockpartner

What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here:Want my help starting a business? Join me here inside Zero To FounderSign up for my AI Masterclass: AI MasterclassFOLLOW TOM:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=enTwitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeuYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeuWOI EPISODES:FOLLOW LISA:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lisabilyeu/Twitter: https://twitter.com/lisabilyeuYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/womenofimpactTik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@lisa_bilyeu?lang=enCash App: Download Cash App Today: https://capl.onelink.me/vFut/v6nymgjl #CashAppPod*Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App's bank partner(s). Prepaid debit cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC. Cash App Visa® Debit Flex Cards issued by Sutton Bank, Member FDIC, and The Bancorp Bank, N.A., pursuant to a license from Visa U.S.A. Inc. See terms and conditions for the Sutton prepaid card, Sutton debit flex card, and Bancorp debit flex card. Cash App Green features, Savings, Direct deposit, Round ups, Overdraft coverage and Discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app/legal/podcast for full disclosure.Quince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodWhatnot: Download the Whatnot app today and get free shipping on your first order.Ketone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderEthos: Get a free quote at https://ethos.com/impactIncogni: Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code IMPACT at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/impact ATT Business: Switch to AT&T Business at https://business.att.comPique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impactThe team dissects the viral Konstantin Kisin vs. Steve Keen debate—both former Impact Theory guests—on the central climate question of our time: is the answer to use less and shrink (de-growth), or to innovate our way forward? The host, who knows both men and calls them smart and well-intentioned, explicitly urges viewers not to pick a side and dismiss the other as stupid, but to find the one factual disagreement worth reasoning from. His own position leans hard toward innovation: drawing on Matt Ridley's The Rational Optimist, he argues that 80,000 years of human progress make "it all ends now" an irrational bet, that we've innovated our way out of every prior crisis, and that de-growth—especially any talk of reducing world population—would trigger economic collapse that causes far more suffering than the problem it aims to solve. He respects Steve Keen's economic mind but argues Keen has essentially "given up," wishing we'd listened to engineers 50 years ago rather than charting a path forward now. He reframes the climate fight around tradeoffs the doom narrative ignores: citing Bjørn Lomborg's "it's real but overstated, and the solutions can be worse than the disease" framing, the roughly 140,000-plus annual heat deaths that air conditioning could prevent, and Jordan Peterson's warning about sacrificing today's actual poor for tomorrow's hypothetical poor. The conversation ranges across the East-vs-West Germany innovation contrast, a Peter Diamandis-style geoengineering thought experiment, why "politics is downstream of culture," and the host's more contested claim that climate panic often masks a desire for control and resentment—before ending on a speculative, openly-unsupported musing about the psychology behind who pushes it. A wide-ranging argument for optimism, first-principles thinking, and refusing to let "we're doomed" become the whole story.The team breaks down Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's latest move to tame rising long-term bond rates—and why the bond market is likely to keep testing him. After Bessent doubled buybacks from $2B to $4B per round (which briefly knocked yields down before they rebounded past where they started), two off-the-record Treasury officials leaked to CNBC that the Treasury General Account—the government's roughly $1-trillion checking account at the Fed—could be tapped to buy bonds en masse. The host walks through why that's a bigger deal than expected: using cash to retire long-duration bonds without issuing new supply makes the debt "evaporate," and the market has, at least for now, believed the rumor enough to push the 30-year and 10-year yields down. But he's clear about the catch: the TGA isn't a magic war chest—every dollar in it was borrowed via prior auctions, so spending it down just defers the problem and eventually requires selling more debt, pressuring the curve again. He frames the backdrop honestly: $40 trillion in debt, ~123% debt-to-GDP, climbing interest costs, Japan (the largest buyer of US debt) in trouble, China dumping Treasuries while hoarding gold, and gold overtaking the dollar as the top central-bank reserve asset. His throughline is that there's no silver bullet, only tradeoffs, and the only real fix is growing the real economy—rising middle-class wages adjusted for inflation, GDP moving from ~1.2% toward 3–4%—rather than financial engineering. Absent that, he lays out the grim menu every over-indebted empire faces: austerity, default, or inflating the currency to shrink the debt (which quietly impoverishes everyone paid or saving in dollars), and warns that another Covid-scale inflation spike without real growth is how you get to "pitchforks." The conversation closes on a lengthy, contested tangent about immigration incentive structures, the Nordic model, and social trust—with the host explicitly noting the Nordic countries themselves say they aren't socialist. A dense, sobering economics breakdown.The team breaks down the escalating US-Canada trade war after Canada walked away from a deal that would have sharply lowered tariffs on several key Canadian industries. The host argues Canada is making a serious economic miscalculation—laying out the dependency math: roughly 78% of Canadian exports rely on US consumer markets, and exports make up about 33% of Canada's GDP, versus Canada representing only around 13% of US imports and a small slice of US GDP. In his read, that asymmetry means Canada has far more to lose, and pivoting toward China—geographically distant and, as he notes, a non-market economy—is a poor substitute. He digs into what actually broke the deal per PM Mark Carney: autos, French-language and cultural protections, and, most importantly, a US demand to restrict Canada's ability to sign independent trade deals with other countries (read: China), pointing to Canada's stated goal of a 50% export increase to China by 2030, Carney's January Beijing visit, and a flurry of mutual tariff cuts (including slashing Canada's 100% EV tariff to ~6%) as evidence of a rapidly warming relationship. But the host is pointedly two-sided: he says the US had understandable strategic reasons to push for guarantees, while blasting Trump's "51st state" rhetoric and bullying public posture as counterproductive—using it as a lesson he teaches entrepreneurs about always showing the other side how a deal is a win for them, and the human psychology of how people resist being forced into even things that serve their interests. He walks through the granular US demands (auto assembly, procurement, energy allocation, language laws) and their second-order effects, and closes on a contested hypothesis that Canada may be more ideologically aligned with China than the US. A dense, numbers-driven, deliberately even-handed breakdown of leverage, strategy, and a deal gone sideways.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Ralph speaks with Colonel Lawrence Wilkerson, former Chief of Staff for Colin Powell, about the fall of the American Empire and self-proclaimed Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth. Then we welcome the CEO and co-founder of the Canadian-based organization Corporate Knights, Toby Heap, to break down Trump's unprecedented trade war with our closest ally. Plus, Ralph has some choice words for Hakeem Jeffries and his meeting with Jared Kushner and for Hillary Clinton and her take on the war with Iran.Lawrence Wilkerson is a retired U.S. Army colonel. Over his 31 years of service, Colonel Wilkerson served as Secretary of State Colin Powell's Chief of Staff from 2002 to 2005, and Special Assistant to General Powell when he was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff from 1989 to 1993. Colonel Wilkerson also served as Deputy Director and Director of the U.S. Marine Corps War College at Quantico, Virginia, and for fifteen years he was the Distinguished Visiting Professor of Government and Public Policy at the College of William and Mary. He is currently a Senior Fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network, senior advisor to the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, and co-founder of the All-Volunteer Force Forum.Two-thirds of the world now thinks that we are an enemy of their state. Two-thirds of the world. And it happens to be the two-third that has the greatest amount of the GDP in the world.Colonel Lawrence WilkersonI've lived for 81 years, almost 82, and I've watched my country go to hell right in front of my face… And the billionaires who want all of this to happen, they do not want a democracy. A democracy is fallible. A democracy can't beat China. A democracy can't beat Russia. A democracy can't even beat Iran. They want a technocracy that is run by them, armed by them, technical revolution by them. They want all of this, and oh by the way they want to live to 150 while they're doing it too.Colonel Lawrence WilkersonEvery freaking hour they create a series of war crimes in Iran. Every freaking hour they perpetrate war crimes in the Persian Gulf. Every freaking hour they perpetrate war crimes in Lebanon with Israel. “What's new?,” I want to say. We are a criminal state. There is no other way to describe it. We are a criminal state. We pay no attention whatsoever to domestic or international law. Only when it benefits the person who is doing the deed do we pay any attention at all.Colonel Lawrence WilkersonToby Heaps is the CEO and co-founder of Corporate Knights, and Editor-in-Chief of Corporate Knights magazine. He spearheaded the first global ranking of the world's 100 most sustainable corporations in 2005, and in 2007 coined the term “clean capitalism.”What we're seeing is a sort of political physics—for every action is an equal and opposite reaction. Canada has in many ways benefited and rallied around our nationhood. We're often not the most boisterous or loudest type of folks. But this continued disrespect for our statehood and the continued attacks and the unreasonableness and the unfair play, our prime minister said something to the effect of: when the United States signs something, it's in pencil. It's really denigrating the United States' reputation globally and in Canadians' minds.Toby HeapsNews 8/28/26* This week, the left-wing insurgency in the Democratic Party scored several new victories. First, NBC reports that in Oklahoma, N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas won the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Markwayne Mullin, who Trump selected to lead the Department of Homeland Security following the resignation of Secretary Kristi Noem. Thomas will go up against Republican Congressman Kevin Hern in November. Unfortunately, Thomas stands little chance of winning the state, which has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1990. Thomas is a member of the Chickasaw Nation and identifies as a Democratic Socialist, but is “not yet” a member of DSA.* Next, in California, Democracy Now! reports progressive state lawmaker Aisha Wahab has prevailed in the special election to fill the seat vacated by disgraced former Congressman Eric Swalwell. This piece notes that Wahab “overcame a flood of attack ads from pro-Israel groups,” which sought to bolster her Democratic primary rival, Melissa Hernandez. In an interview, Wahab said that she “appreciates” voters in her district for “seeing through” the “lies that were spread by AIPAC.” Wahab will make history as the first Afghan American in Congress and has called for the United States to engage with the Taliban government and attempt to “[steer] them in the right direction” on human rights.* In Georgia, the Hill reports another progressive – Everton Blair – won the special election to fill the seat of Congressman David Scott, who passed away in April during his 12th term in the seat. Blair, the former chair of the Gwinnett County School Board, defeated Scott's daughter Marcye Scott. However, Blair will only represent this seat until the end of the year. Beginning in January, State Rep. Jasmine Clark, who won the May primary, will fill the seat for the 120th Congress.* Meanwhile, in the Cornhusker State, the Nebraska Examiner reports that the “Legal Marijuana NOW U.S. Senate candidate Mike Marvin announced he can't put more ‘energy' into the Senate race because of health issues and endorsed nonpartisan U.S. Senate candidate Dan Osborn.” Marvin will remain on the ballot, but is “urging all who supported [him] to now support…Osborn.” This piece notes that this announcement comes on heels of reporting by Flatwater Free Press showing that two staffers from Osborn's 2024 independent Senate campaign joined the Legal Marijuana NOW executive board and sought to dissolve the party from the inside. This, combined with the fact that former Democratic Senate nominee Cindy Burbank paid Mike Marvin's $1,740 candidate filing fee and dropped out of the race one day after the secretary of state verified Osborn's signatures to be on the fall ballot has fueled speculation that these were coordinated efforts to clear the field for Osborn. Marvin for his part disputes this and says he never planned to leave the race. Osborn is quoted saying “We hope to earn the support of the LMN voters and hope that we can represent their concerns well in the US Senate.”* In more third party news, Trump has launched new broadsides against the emerging ex-MAGA clique – consisting of Tucker Carlson, Congressman Thomas Massie, and former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. According to the Hill, Trump attacked the group, said to be exploring the possibility of founding a new right-wing party, calling Carlson “a loser,” Greene “a highly neurotic woman” and Massie a “real JERK” on Truth Social. The president added, “What a team this would be, THREE LOSERS, and a pocketful of change!...The only chance they have is to join the Radical Left Dumocrats, and try breaking into the Primary System. To all of them I say, PRAISE BE TO ALLAH!” The proximate cause of this latest flare-up between the camps is Trump's decision to allow in 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to be imported in the next 90 days, a move Massie called “worse than socialism.” Greene, who has been perhaps the most vocal defector from the MAGA camp, said “He attacks us with such vitriol because we actually are everything he claimed to be…he has proven as President that he is nothing more than a neocon puppet for Israel, corporations, big donors with special interests, and his dear friends in the Epstein class…We never changed, Trump did.”* Another story from this side of the aisle comes to us from NOTUS, which reports that an “unknown actor” has stolen over $16,000 from the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). This incident, alternatively characterized as a “theft” from a “foreign country” or simply a “fraud,” occurred in early July, when the NRCC “attempted to pay a bill from Ranger Wi-Fi Consulting, a Texas-based firm that specializes in helping clients ‘optimize their wireless networks while ensuring healthy security measures are in place.'” Seeking to assuage the fears of donors, NRCC spokesman Will Kiley told the press that “Protecting donor funds is a top priority for the NRCC,” and vowed that the committee is “working to recover the funds, and…taken steps to ensure it can't happen again.” Listeners might remember that in July, the DNC admitted that they had fallen prey to a scammer, losing almost $30,000 in the process. It would seem that these committees do not have functional safeguards against such schemes.* Our final stories this week all deal with the Middle East. First up, Axios reports that while AIPAC was gearing up for a major ad blitz in Michigan against Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and on behalf of Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers, those plans have apparently been iced at the behest of the Rogers campaign. According to this story, Rogers believes that AIPAC spending in the Democratic primary – over $30 million on behalf of El-Syed's rival Haley Stevens – actually helped boost El-Sayed's candidacy, making his opposition to AIPAC a “centerpiece of his…campaign, using the group's spending against him to portray Democratic opponent Haley Stevens as beholden to the pro-Israel lobby.” Rogers fears the same fate, so he has sought to keep his distance from AIPAC while his allies are urging AIPAC to “get involved without putting the group's name front and center.” However, Rogers' attempts to put some daylight between his campaign and AIPAC has resulted in the latter turning cold towards the Republican candidate. Republicans now worry that AIPAC will “sit out the general election entirely.” As for the perception of AIPAC in Michigan, a recent poll found that “55% of Michigan voters oppose continued U.S. aid to Israel.”* On the other end of the Michigan political spectrum, Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib has sent a letter to Secretary of State Marco Rubio demanding that he “ensure the immediateand permanent release of U.S. citizen Sama Safi, a 20-year-old university student with a severe complex chronic health condition, who the Israeli military has arbitrarily and wrongfully detained since June 2nd.” This letter goes on to describe how “armed Israeli soldiers raided her family's home in the occupied West Bank in the middle of the night and tore her from her family,” and that since then, she has “suffered under appalling conditions in Israeli military detention including “frequent physical assault, shackling, and the throwing of gas and stun grenades into already overcrowded and poorly ventilated cells,” among other horrors. 40 more members of Congress signed this letter, including six senators, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey and Chris Van Hollen among them. 85 civic groups also signed onto this demand, ranging from faith-based groups to human rights organizations and beyond.* In the region itself, a broad coalition of Muslim states – including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and, perhaps most notably, the United Arab Emirates – have issued a categorical condemnation of Israel's new “E1” settlement plan. This plan relates to new settlement activities east of occupied East Jerusalem and the signatories decry the plan as constituting “a dangerous escalation that further advances settlement expansion and annexation and undermines the geographical contiguity of the Occupied Palestinian Territory…thereby threatening the viability and realization of an independent, contiguous Palestinian State based on the 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital.” The UAE was the most significant state in the region to sign onto the Trump-brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, which sought to normalize relations between Israel and its neighbors at the expense of the Palestinians. Saudi Arabia was said to be on the verge of signing the accords prior to October 7th and Israel's subsequent genocidal military campaign in Gaza. The UAE taking a new stand against Israel on behalf of the Palestinian cause is widely seen as the final death knell of the Abraham Accords and the beginning of a new era of relations in the Middle East.* Finally, the Economist reports that a group of seven top officials within the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is consolidating power in Iran. The man rumored to be leading this junta is Mohsen Rezaei, the new national-security adviser, former presidential candidate and the longest-serving chief of the IRGC, having led the corps though the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. Others include the head of the navy, currently overseeing Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the IRGC's commander-in-chief and founder of the Quds Force. Notably absent from this group is Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic. This piece judiciously avoids making any definite predictions about whether this new clique will rule as hardliners or pragmatists, but emphasizes that the late Ali Khamenei expertly “balanced the competing interests of his realm” while these military men favor action.This has been Francesco DeSantis, with In Case You Haven't Heard. Get full access to Ralph Nader Radio Hour at www.ralphnaderradiohour.com/subscribe

Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile.Kevin Muir on Xhttps://x.com/kevinmuirThe MacroTouristhttps://themacrotourist.comTopics coveredWhy stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yieldsHow Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation TwistHow replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal ReserveWhy the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signalsJim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortizedWhy stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutionsHow daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloffWhy Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signalsWhy platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychologyWhat 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertaintyTimestamps00:00 Intro06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble"22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to seeLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On Thursday's Mark Levin Show, what is in the president's mail-in voting executive order? It ensures voter integrity and the requirements are common sense, yet Democrats and their media lie about it as an effort to stop women and people of color from voting and call it a grave threat. The Democrats and their slip-and-fall lawyers always seem to be on the side of the cheaters but claim they are just looking out for the rest of us. This executive order is perfectly legitimate. Also, a leaked CBC memo instructed reporters ahead of the 25th anniversary of 9/11 not to refer to the attacks as terrorist attacks, instead describing hijackings that led to passenger jet crashes in Washington, D.C., Pennsylvania, and Manhattan that destroyed the World Trade Center. If 9/11 is not terrorism then terrorism does not exist. The left and Islamists in media allow this insanity to spread like poison.  Later, people aren't reading books, especially young people, so they lack independent information and don't understand the history of socialism; they aren't taught it and are instead taught that socialism is fantastic. Many do not know what happened in the Holocaust or the Civil War's massive battles to preserve the Union and end slavery, nor why the Electoral College or the Senate exist. As a result they listen to Rasputin-type figures and radical anti-American faculty with tenure become the only source they have, leaving them without enough knowledge to push back. Afterward, the Democrats did everything they could to stop Ronald Reagan from pursuing the Strategic Defense Initiative, which led to Patriot missiles, among other life-saving technologies. The media regurgitated the Democrats' talking points, and mocked Reagan and "Star Wars."  The Democrats, the media, and the Woke Reich isolations opposed significant increases in our defense budget, which has been shrinking as a percentage of GDP for some time. Meanwhile,  Barack Obama and Biden changed names on forts, ships, mountains. They changed nouns and pronouns. But Trump changes names to promote America and these same people lose what's left of their minds. Finally, Jon Husted calls in to discuss his Senate run against Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Brown tries to portray himself as a moderate but he's a liberal. Husted says the Democratic Socialists are taking over the Democratic party. They want to make us less free and take more control over your money and your future. Husted supports President Trump's polices on the border, trans athletes in women's sports and so one. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

It's been more than a year since the Trump administration intensified ICE raids in immigrant communities across the U.S. Latino entreprenuers say the toll on their businesses has been worse than the pandemic. In this episode, the ongoing economic harm caused by Trump's relentless deportation agenda. Plus: Small businesses grapple with more tariff uncertainty, Canada posts strong GDP growth, and we break down Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Was that forward guidance we just heard from the Fed Chair?Canada's economy is growing as it heads to a trade war with the U.S.Tariff uncertainty means halted production for this camping chair companyImmigration enforcement leaves Latino businesses struggling for monthsHow a 21-foot-tall space cowboy has revitalized a strip of Route 66

Our Head of U.S. Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore looks at what the midterms may reveal about politician's appetite for tackling the faster-than-expected increase in the U.S. debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why fiscal is back in focus and what we can learn about the broader debt trajectory from the upcoming midterm elections. It's Friday, August 28th at 10am in New York. Fiscal policy has moved back onto investors' radars following Treasury's recent buyback announcements. Those came in the same week that total U.S. debt crossed $ 40 trillion for the first time, a milestone that arrived months earlier than most people expected. As my colleague Andrew Sheets puts it, that's a big number. But the more useful question isn't the number itself. It's whether all this debt is starting to act as a brake on the economy.We don't quite yet see a credibility problem in the Treasury market, but that's exactly why fiscal is back in the conversation. And it sits against a bigger backdrop. The U.S. continues to run large deficits in an economy that isn't in a recession. Our economists expect the deficit to stay around 6 percent of GDP through 2027. And voters are clearly concerned about elevated debt levels. So why isn't fiscal austerity coming up more in DC? Simply put, we think the political incentives point the other direction. At the risk of oversimplifying, fiscal consolidation or deficit reduction means either less spending or more taxes. And the political costs of those choices land immediately. We think neither party, therefore, has the incentive to take on that type of policy change – if we don't see a meaningful cliff or a risk to existing programs, especially into an election. But what about after? We think the midterms won't in and of themselves be a catalyst to fix the debt trajectory. But they can tell us something about where this goes next. And I'd point to two things in particular. The first is Social Security. It's not likely to be the headline issue in November, but we could see a useful test case for the debt conversation more broadly because the deadline is creeping closer. The latest trustees report projects the retirement trust fund will become insolvent in the fourth quarter of 2032. And at that point, it could only cover roughly 78 percent of scheduled benefits without a change in law. Now, that's likely to matter more in 2028 than in this cycle, since whoever wins the White House that year will be in office when it hits. But the midterms can still show us where the politics are consolidating. Recent polling points to a fairly consistent pattern. Voters want lawmakers to act. They prefer raising taxes on high earners over broader benefit cuts. And they're notably more open to trimming benefits when it's targeted at the top of the income distribution. That likely explains why a number of 2026 candidates have converged on lifting the payroll tax cap, while some Republicans have largely retreated from campaigning on things like a higher retirement age. Watching which of those messages actually wins, especially in Senate races like New Hampshire or Maine, where a significant share of the electorate depends on these benefits, could provide some useful hints with respect to which of these policy changes actually resonate with voters and end up reflecting the eventual fix. The second is the broader fiscal landscape after the election. If we get a divided government in November, that typically means more fiscal noise around the recurring deadlines, like government funding and the debt ceiling. Those two matter for markets in very different ways. A shutdown's bigger effect tends to be indirect. So, think delayed or lower quality government data since agencies can end up working from smaller survey samples. That leaves investors and the Fed making decisions with less complete information for weeks at a stretch sometimes. The debt ceiling is more direct. That shows up most clearly in the Treasury bill market. Bills maturing around a potential deadline tend to cheapen relative to other short-term benchmarks as investors have to price default risk into that narrow window. And that's the case even when a resolution is still the base case. So, here's the through line: fiscal likely isn't about to become Washington's top priority just because debt crossed $40 trillion. But the midterms are a chance to see whether the political incentives are starting to shift – on Social Security specifically, and on the broader appetite for political fights around funding deadlines more generally. Either way, we think fiscal policy is set to stay in the headlines in the years to come. And especially so as we head into the 2028 presidential election season. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share your Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

It's been more than a year since the Trump administration intensified ICE raids in immigrant communities across the U.S. Latino entreprenuers say the toll on their businesses has been worse than the pandemic. In this episode, the ongoing economic harm caused by Trump's relentless deportation agenda. Plus: Small businesses grapple with more tariff uncertainty, Canada posts strong GDP growth, and we break down Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole speech.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Was that forward guidance we just heard from the Fed Chair?Canada's economy is growing as it heads to a trade war with the U.S.Tariff uncertainty means halted production for this camping chair companyImmigration enforcement leaves Latino businesses struggling for monthsHow a 21-foot-tall space cowboy has revitalized a strip of Route 66

Camden Bucey speaks with economist Shawn Ritenour about what makes an account of economics distinctly Christian. They discuss economic law as part of God's created order and the biblical principles shaping stewardship, private property, labor, capital, exchange, and care for those in need. Pope Leo XIV's Magnifica Humanitas provides the occasion for a searching conversation about the universal destination of goods, Big Tech, data, subsidiarity, sphere sovereignty, GDP, and human dignity.The conversation presses beneath policy to theology. Neither markets nor governments escape the effects of sin, and material prosperity must never be confused with sanctification. Christians seek just and prudent arrangements in this age while recognizing that scarcity, exploitation, and disordered desire will not finally be overcome by human construction. The church's hope rests in the crucified and risen Christ and the consummation of his kingdom.Topics DiscussedEconomic law, creation, and Christian stewardshipPrivate property, labor, capital, exchange, and human dignityLeo XIV's Magnifica Humanitas and Catholic social teachingGDP, inequality, and the common goodThe universal destination of goodsData, privacy, Big Tech, and non-rivalrous goodsSubsidiarity and Kuyperian sphere sovereigntyUniversal basic income and the economic disruption of AISin, scarcity, eschatology, and Christian hopeLearn more: https://reformedforum.org/ctc974Chapters00:00 Introduction02:09 What makes economics Christian?09:52 Economics at Grove City College14:01 Introducing Magnifica Humanitas19:23 GDP and the dignity of the human person23:46 The common good, inequality, and economic law29:36 Private property, markets, and solidarity35:12 The universal destination of goods43:20 Data, privacy, and non-rivalrous goods50:21 Subsidiarity and sphere sovereignty55:04 Big Tech, state privilege, and central banking58:02 Labor, capital, and human worth63:26 Universal basic income in the age of AI72:33 Economics between the fall and the consummation80:03 Resources and conclusion

In his first interview with the FT since becoming prime minister, Andy Burnham tells political editor and host George Parker that he is pro-business and understands the pressures that business is under — but wants something in return from corporate Britain. Deputy political editor Jim Pickard and columnist Stephen Bush join George to unpack Burnham's pitch on business and wealth creation, and what he had to say about tax, nationalisation and the EU.George @GeorgeWParker and @georgewparker.bsky.social; Stephen @stephenkb; and Jim @PickardJEWant more?Andy Burnham pledges to ‘take pressure off' business ahead of October BudgetAndy Burnham seeks to bridge gap with nervous business communityHealey to shelve his own defence spending target of 3% of GDP by 2030Andy Burnham set for first meeting with Trump in SeptemberThames Water creditors and government in stand-off over future Thames Water saga undermines case for more market solutionsHow the Bayeux Tapestry became a tool of soft powerCome and join the FT and Political Fix panelists at the FT Weekend Festival on Saturday, September 5 at Kenwood House Gardens in London. To save 10 per cent on tickets, visit ft.com/festival and use the discount code FTPODCAST.You can also sign up here for Stephen Bush's morning newsletter ‘Inside Politics' for straight-talking insight into the stories that matter, plus puns and tongue (mostly) in cheek views. Get 30 days free.Political Fix was presented by George Parker and produced by Persis Love and Clare Williamson. The executive producer is Manuela Saragosa. Original music by Breen Turner. Audio mix by Sean McGarrity. Our broadcast engineers were Andrew Georgiades and Petros Gioumpasis. Flo Phillips is the FT's head of audio. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

David Hebert discusses the fiscal debates surrounding Social Security's impending 2032 shortfall. Hebert refutes the idea that raising tax rates increases treasury revenue, noting that tax revenue historically remains constant at 17–18% of GDP because high rates prompt tax avoidance. Instead of "starving the beast" of resources, Hebert advocates for "starving the beast of responsibility" by decentralizing programs through federalism to cut administrative costs. He urges structural reforms to Social Security, highlighting that the ratio of workers supporting each retiree has plummeted from 40-to-1 down to 2-to-1. (4)

CONTENTS JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 8-26-2026.832Greenwich Observatory (Robert Chambers, p.200, 1832) - Copy.pngJohn Batchelor and Michael Bernstam analyze the revenue-sharing deal between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, which does not resolve the critical global refinery shortage. Decades of zero Western refinery expansion, alongside Ukrainian drone strikes disabling Russian capacity, has left a global deficit of 5.6 to 6 million barrels per day of refined products. This is especially severe for diesel, which requires heavy crude unlike the light sweet crude produced by the US shale revolution. With U.S. refineries running at maximum capacity, the threat of mechanical failures risks a full-blown supply crisis. (1)Richard Reinsch discusses the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) and their principles, which advocate for economic collectivism, nationalizing private industries, and dismantling the U.S. constitutional republic in favor of a unicameral legislature. Reinsch contrasts this with a historical 1922 Kremlin conversation where Soviet leader Joseph Stalin accused American communist Jay Lovestone of "heresy" for arguing "American exceptionalism"—the idea that American working-class prosperity made them resistant to Marxism. Today, Reinsch views the DSA as an overeducated, white, urban phenomenon failing to win working-class or minority voters. (2)Rogier Windhorst and David Livingston: Professor Windhorst warns that the Hubble Space Telescope's orbit will begin to decay uncontrollably by September 2033 due to solar maximum atmospheric expansion. To prevent a hazardous, uncontrolled re-entry, Windhorst advocates for a robotic servicing mission to boost Hubble's orbit. As the only remaining telescope with precise blue-ultraviolet capabilities, Hubble's data remains critical and heavily in demand. Windhorst urges NASA to fund a $100 million rescue mission and eventually construct the Habitable Worlds Observatory to search for Earth-like exoplanets starting in 2040. (3)David Hebert discusses the fiscal debates surrounding Social Security's impending 2032 shortfall. Hebert refutes the idea that raising tax rates increases treasury revenue, noting that tax revenue historically remains constant at 17–18% of GDP because high rates prompt tax avoidance. Instead of "starving the beast" of resources, Hebert advocates for "starving the beast of responsibility" by decentralizing programs through federalism to cut administrative costs. He urges structural reforms to Social Security, highlighting that the ratio of workers supporting each retiree has plummeted from 40-to-1 down to 2-to-1. (4)Captain James Fanell (US Navy, retired), co-host Gordon Chang: Fanell warns that China is nearing completion of a military installation on Triton Island in the Paracels, expanding its "ring of control" in the South China Sea. He cautions that China may soon fortify Scarborough Shoal, threatening to block the northern South China Sea and degrade U.S. naval operations. In response to this rising coercion, the Philippines is boosting its 2027 defense budget by 6.3%, allocating $800 million for modernization with a heavy focus on intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones. Fanell urges more assertive naval cooperation to deter further Chinese expansion. (5)Dean Cheng, co-host Gordon Chang: Cheng analyzes China's space program and its pursuit of reusable booster technology to match SpaceX's cost-saving launch cadences. Although China has successfully recaptured first-stage boosters, it has not yet demonstrated refurbishing or reusing them. Cheng notes that China seeks space dominance to deploy six mega-constellations and establish moon colonies. He suggests that a delay in China's lunar south pole probe—officially blamed on solar exposure—is likely due to the ongoing accident investigation of the Long March 7 rocket failure. Cheng predicts a Chinese astronaut will walk on the moon by December 31, 2030. (6)Charles Burton, co-host Gordon Chang: Burton discusses the escalating trade war between Canada and the Trumpadministration, which triggered $20 billion in Canadian retaliatory tariffs and a 7.5 billion CAD business support package. The dispute has sparked public anti-Trump sentiment and personal mudslinging between Donald Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford. Stalled negotiations, compounded by unacceptable U.S. demands regarding French labeling laws, have shattered bilateral trust. Burton warns that Canada is prepared to pivot away from MAGA toward free trade with Europe and China, despite severe risks of Chinese economic coercion. (7)Jack Burnham outlines China's persistent military coercion campaign targeting Taiwan, noting that Beijing separates economic trade truces from its aggressive goal to subjugate the island. China's provocations, including Coast Guardpatrols east of Taiwan and flights over the median line, are designed to establish a "new normal." In December 2025, China responded to an $11 billion U.S. arms package by launching "Justice Mission 2025," an expansive military exercise simulating blockades and practicing "all-dimensional deterrence" to discourage U.S. intervention and test regional capabilities. (8)Doug Messier details SpaceX's plans to build "Starbase Louisiana," a massive $100 billion, 125,000-acre spaceport designed as the world's largest launch facility. Scheduled for construction in 2027 and launches by 2029, the facility will feature ten launch pads supporting thousands of annual, airline-style Starship flights. While bringing thousands of jobs, the coastal development raises environmental concerns regarding wetland habitats, which SpaceX has pledged to help restore. Messier also highlights Space Force's startup funding arm, SpaceWERX, which is fostering new aerospace innovators like Antares Nuclear and Muon Space. (9)Jeremy Zakis reports on the unprecedented rainfall sweeping across Australia, driven by a super El Niño cycle interacting with the Indian Ocean Dipole. South Australia and Adelaide experienced the heaviest downpours, breaking monthly rainfall records in a single day, while Sydney's infrastructure coped with several inches of rain. Victoria and Melbourne were largely spared due to the Great Dividing Range acting as a barrier. Zakis warns that weekly spring rains are highly unusual and threaten to fuel rapid forest undergrowth, which could dry out and create a dangerous bushfire hazard during future droughts. (10)

Scott Bessent just called gold a sanctionable asset — the first time the Treasury has said that since 1971 — while Trump simultaneously classified gold as a strategic mineral and the Treasury bought back $4 billion in long-term bonds in what Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold calls a roundabout QE the Fed didn't authorize. Gold has moved from $4,000 to $4,600 in 60 days, silver is back near $70, and the Volcker option that stopped the last gold spike is off the table: U.S. debt-to-GDP is at 144%, and quintupling interest payments to fight inflation would make debt service larger than Social Security and defense combined. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.

Scott Bessent just called gold a sanctionable asset — the first time the Treasury has said that since 1971 — while Trump simultaneously classified gold as a strategic mineral and the Treasury bought back $4 billion in long-term bonds in what Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold calls a roundabout QE the Fed didn't authorize. Gold has moved from $4,000 to $4,600 in 60 days, silver is back near $70, and the Volcker option that stopped the last gold spike is off the table: U.S. debt-to-GDP is at 144%, and quintupling interest payments to fight inflation would make debt service larger than Social Security and defense combined. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

At 24 years old, Chad Marks received a 40-year federal prison sentence. Facing the possibility of spending most of his life behind bars, he began teaching himself the law and became a respected jailhouse lawyer—helping other incarcerated men pursue sentence reductions and compassionate release.Chad eventually turned that knowledge toward his own case. After the First Step Act changed the sentencing laws used against him, his sentence was reduced from 40 years to 20 years. In 2020, after serving approximately 17 years, he walked free.Today, Chad is the author of Blood on the Razor Wire, a paralegal, prison consultant, podcast host and criminal justice advocate. He joins Brent Cassity to discuss surviving dangerous federal prisons, enduring solitary confinement, discovering purpose behind the wall and helping write his own path to freedom.This is the remarkable reinvention of Chad Marks.Show sponsors: Navigating the challenges of white-collar crime? The White-Collar Support Group at Prisonist.org offers guidance, resources, and a community for those affected at prisonist.org. Protect your online reputation with Discoverability! Use code NIGHTMARE SUCCESS for an exclusive discount Visit Discoverability.co. Auto Plaza Direct "Your personal car concierge!" Let them handle every detail to find your perfect car autoplazadirect.com. Author Saffron Gustafson www.mynameissaffron.com, "My Name is Saffron." Author Nevin Shetty, "Second Chance Economics: How Hiring The Formerly Incarcerated Can Unlock $1 Trillion in GDP." www.secondchanceeconomics.com

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets discusses when and how higher yields and mounting U.S. debt could become more than abstract concerns.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, at what point do higher yields and higher debt actually matter? It's Wednesday, August 26th at 2pm in London. In its first 240 years, the United States of America accumulated roughly $20 trillion in federal debt. The country has borrowed another [$]20 trillion in just the last 10. The question for investors is when this debt load will act as a brake on economic activity? Or, worse, create stress that disrupts today's relative calm?So, let's start with the first question. For economic activity, the bar seems pretty high. You see, even with all the activity around AI, U.S. corporate debt as a share of the overall economy is broadly unchanged in the last decade and actually lower than where it was before the pandemic. The balance sheets of the household sector in the U.S. are even stronger. Household debt to GDP is lower than where it was prior to COVID and lower than where it was in the year 2000. And this may even understate the strength – because much of this debt is locked in at historically low mortgage rates; while household assets, the other side of the balance sheet, have soared to record levels.That may help explain why both consumers and businesses have remained more resilient than expected this year despite the higher interest rates and energy prices. This divergence of trend between public and private balance sheets is also global. Europe has also seen higher government debt offset by even more private sector de-leveraging, while Japan has seen rising public borrowing and pretty stable private sector leverage. To some degree, this divergence between the public and private sides of the economy reflects a policy choice. Governments determine how to balance taxation and spending. And many countries, not just the U.S., have reduced taxes over the last decade while allowing public borrowing to increase. A deterioration of public sector finances relative to private sector finances – it's not especially surprising given that choice. If strong balance sheets are helping U.S. households and companies be less sensitive to higher rates, where should we look for stress? Well, for all of this debt, the U.S. bond market is actually still pretty well-behaved. U.S. inflation expectations are roughly unchanged year to date. Expected bond market volatility is historically low.Indeed, one reason that recent intervention by the U.S. Treasury into the bond market was such a surprise to investors was the lack of these usual stress markers. Instead, the point at which these higher yields might have a larger market impact may be up to another factor: asset allocation. Today, 30-year Treasury bonds yield about 3 percent more than expected inflation over that period. Long-dated U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds once again yield more than 6 percent. And so, the question of when higher yields begin to matter may be less about when businesses stop borrowing or consumers stop spending. And be more about when investors decide that bonds offer better value than stocks. So far, Morgan Stanley Research is not seeing clear evidence of that shift. Fund flow data and market correlations do not suggest a significant reallocation away from equities, and strong earnings growth is helping support the equity valuation case. But these are metrics that we'll be watching. In the meantime, we think that rising U.S. debt and Treasury market intervention may weaken the U.S. dollar, especially against a high-yielding currency with much, much lower debt levels – the Australian dollar. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Brian Szytel reports markets were essentially flat, while bonds moved as the 10-year yield rose 3 bps to 4.66; oil was slightly lower amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz deal talk. Economic data was mostly positive, but headline PCE was 0.3 vs 0.2 expected (3.7% YoY) while core PCE matched expectations at 0.2 (3.3% YoY), lifting Fed futures to a 40% chance of a September hike, which he views as largely a token 25 bps timing debate into Q4. He previews Jackson Hole and Fed hawk Warsh, focusing on potential balance-sheet discussion amid Treasury plans to issue more short-term debt and buy back about $4B long-term. A listener question prompts discussion of debt absorption, real yields, overindebtedness as deflationary, and currency depreciation as a release valve, citing Japan's weakening yen alongside rising JGB yields. Other data: durable goods 1.1% vs 0.5%, personal income 0.4% vs 0.2%, spending 0.2, and Q2 GDP unchanged at 1.5% with nominal GDP in the 6s. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:25 Bonds Oil Geopolitics 00:55 PCE Inflation Update 01:38 Fed Hike Odds 02:06 Jackson Hole Treasury Moves 03:09 Balance Sheet QT Talk 04:04 Debt Issuance Explained 05:16 Japan Yen Release Valve 06:04 Other Economic Data 06:45 GDP And Closing Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

“Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals. But the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels. Investing in new fossil fuel infrastructure is moral and economic madness.”  Antonio Guterres, UN General SecretaryWe know that the current system is not fit for purpose. We know that we're hurtling to the edge of the 6th mass extinction, blowing apart all of the predictions about the speed and scale of ecosystem breakdown.  And still we listen to politicians argue about whether GDP has gone up by 0.1% and if so, who is to claim the credit?  They plan for war without understanding that there are no armies, no nations, no people - or any complex life - on a dead planet. What good are science and rational persuasion if no one is paying attention? The climate crisis deepens with terrifying predictability. Meanwhile, the courageous young campaigners who seek to wake us up to the truth of this, through peaceful direct action, are silenced and stuck in prison.Daniel Knorr is one of those young people.  He was 22 years old at the time the book was published, and had previously studied biochemistry at Oxford with a view to engineering plants to be more resilient to extreme weather conditions.  As you'll hear, he realised this was no longer where he needed to be, and joined Just Stop Oil, whose ethos and grounding question is: what does it make to be a good person in this time of collapse - or perhaps transition?  I'll let him tell you his story, but—like the stories of the other 25 young people in the book—it's humbling and inspiring in equal measure. Jonathon Porritt is well known to anyone in the Green or eco-campaigning community in the UK.  He was formerly Co-Chair of the Green Party (1980-83) and Director of Friends of the Earth (1984-90). He was a Board Member of The Southwest Regional Development Agency between 1999 and 2008. He stood down as Chair of the UK Sustainable Development Commission in 2009, after nine years providing high-level advice to Government Ministers, and served a ten-year term as Chancellor of Keele University (2012-2022). He was awarded a CBE in January 2000 for services to environmental protection.Together, we discuss Love, Anger and Betrayal, which brings Jonathan's experience as a long time campaigner into juxtaposition with the experiences of young people one third his age who are doing their best to make the world a better place. Theirs is a generation systematically betrayed by politicians. And by all of us who allow this to continue, on our watch, year after year.  What comes across in this book, though, is that while Jonathan feels the kind of white hot rage that consumes many of us, Daniel and those around him are focusing on embodying love for each other and the planet. ‘We have a choice. Collective action or collective suicide. It is in our hands.'-António GuterresLet's explore what we can do, shall we? LinksLove, Anger and Betrayal websiteJonathan's website Jonathan's short film about the bookBetter Coalition—About Accidental Gods—We offer three strands all rooted in the same soil, drawing from the same river: Accidental Gods, Dreaming Awake and the Thrutopia Writing Masterclass Our next Open Gathering offered as part of our Accidental Gods Programme is 'BECOMING A GOOD ANCESTOR' which will run on Sunday 13th September 2026 from 16:00 - 20:00 GMT - details are here. You don't have to be a member of Accidental Gods to come along, but if you are, all Gatherings are half price.If you'd like to join us at Accidental Gods, this is the membership where we endeavour to help you to connect fully with the living web of life. If you'd like to train more deeply in the contemporary shamanic work at Dreaming Awake, you'll find us here. If you'd like to explore the recordings from our last Thrutopia Writing Masterclass, the details are hereManda and Louise both offer one-to-one Mentoring Calls.  Manda is writing a book just now, but if you'd like to contact Louise, details are here.

Why has JD Vance been on a crusade against the economics profession recently? Phil Magness joins the podcast to discuss why JD Vance thinks the concept of GDP is fake, why he's skeptical that consumers having a lot of affordable goods is a good thing, and why the right is turning to 'post-liberal' economics. Further reading:  https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/hillbilly-economics Support the podcast and get involved with your local chapter by becoming a member of the Center for New Liberalism. Join at https://cnliberalism.org/become-a-member Got questions? Send us a note at mailbag@cnliberalism.org. Follow us at: https://twitter.com/CNLiberalism https://cnliberalism.org/ https://www.instagram.com/cnliberalism/

Why are mortgage rates still so high in 2026, even as President Trump pushes for lower interest rates?That's the question a lot of buyers, homeowners, investors, and real estate professionals are asking right now.In this week's The Brief, Kenny Simpson breaks down what's actually keeping mortgage rates elevated and why the answer goes far beyond who is sitting in the White House.We cover:• Why Trump wants interest rates lower• Why presidents don't directly control mortgage rates• How the Iran conflict is affecting markets and inflation expectations• The impact of tariffs on rates• What the latest jobs and consumer numbers are telling us• Why slowing wage growth matters for inflation• What Kevin Warsh and Scott Bessent can actually do• Why mortgage rates could have room to fall• What needs to happen before we see meaningful rate reliefKenny's view is that the underlying economic picture isn't particularly strong: the jobs market is struggling, the consumer is slowing, GDP is lukewarm, and inflation has not risen as much as feared. But continued uncertainty surrounding Iran is making it harder for markets and policymakers to move toward lower rates. There is some good news. Kenny explains that the spread between the 10-year Treasury and 30-year fixed mortgage rate has narrowed significantly. In his view, without that improvement, mortgage rates could currently be substantially higher. So when will mortgage rates finally come down?Watch the full episode for Kenny's take on what needs to happen next.

"The expectation level of procurement is rising. Today's stuff that was not possible a year ago, that felt like science fiction three years ago, is something that we can create for our customers today." - Sammeli Sammalkorpi, Co-founder & CEO, Sievo For CPOs and their teams, procurement data has never been more abundant… or more challenging to harness. Demands go far beyond savings: teams are being asked to link procurement value to broader business goals, manage complexity, and adapt to the rapid rise of AI. In this episode of the ProcureTech Insider we speak with Sammeli Sammalkorpi, Sievo's co-founder and CEO, for a candid "Provider of the Week" discussion about what it takes to turn chaotic data into actionable business value.  With Sievo handling data equivalent to more than two percent of global GDP, Sammeli shares why long-term data investment, proprietary benchmarks, and hands-on integration are making the biggest difference for large enterprises. In this episode, Sammeli also covers how to: -Build an enterprise-wide data foundation ready for AI and rapid business change -Turn procurement analytics into prioritized, actionable insights -Benchmark your spend and risk using truly global, anonymized industry data -Translate procurement results into the language of margin, revenue, and business value   Links: Sammeli Sammalkorpi on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sammeli-sammalkorpi/  Visit the Sievo profile in the AOP Provider Directory: https://artofprocurement.com/provider-directory/sievo  Subscribe to the AOP Newsletter: https://resources.artofprocurement.com/art-of-procurement-podcast-subscribe  Subscribe to Art of Procurement on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@ArtofProcurement   

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, mark episode 202 with "It's All About the Base(ment)," digging into last week's surprise Treasury announcement to double buybacks of long-end bonds after the 30-year yield hit 5.33%, its highest since 2007.Ryan and Sonu explain why this move — an operation-twist-style intervention rather than QE or yield curve control — spooked markets into the "debasement trade," sending gold up 5-6% and Bitcoin up more than 20% on the week while the dollar fell roughly 1%. They break down Stanley Druckenmiller's sharply critical Wall Street Journal op-ed on Bessent's approach, along with pushback from economist Guy Berger, and debate whether today's 10-year yield near 4.7% is simply normalizing back toward 1990s levels or whether nominal GDP growth suggests rates should go even higher.The conversation also covers a blowout Philly Fed manufacturing report and strong flash PMI data pointing to continued economic strength, market breadth and sentiment signals suggesting the bull market remains intact above key S&P 500 support, and a broader look at the $40 trillion national debt in context of rising household net worth. Ryan closes with thoughts on market technicals, portfolio diversifiers, and previews of Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings coming later in the week.[Key Takeaways]Treasury's move to double long-end bond buybacks starting September 9, following the 30-year yield's spike to 5.33% (highest since 2007), sparked what Ryan and Sonu call the "debasement trade" — a rotation into gold and Bitcoin and out of the dollar.Gold rose 5-6% and Bitcoin surged more than 20% over the week, while the U.S. dollar index fell about 1%, an unusual reaction given that rising yields typically strengthen a currency rather than weaken it.Sonu frames the Treasury action as closer to a 1960s/2011-style "Operation Twist" than true quantitative easing, since it shifts duration without expanding the money supply, but notes it still risks pushing short-term yields and imported inflation higher.Stanley Druckenmiller's Wall Street Journal op-ed argued Treasury's buybacks amount to artificial suppression of the "only fiscal disciplinarian" left in Washington, sparking debate over whether the intervention is as powerful as he suggests.Comparing current nominal GDP growth (~5.5%) to the late 1990s (~5.8%) with today's lower 10-year yield (~4.3% average vs. ~6% then), Sonu argues rates may need to move even higher than current levels to reach true equilibrium.A blowout Philly Fed manufacturing report (47.4, highest since 2021) and strong flash PMI data (56, highest since April 2022) point to renewed industrial strength, largely tied to AI-driven investment.Jump to:0:00 - Welcome And A Playful Title1:22 - The 1,000-Point Dow Day Memory4:01 - Personal Low Moments And Path Dependency7:06 - Treasury Steps In As Yields Surge14:18 - Druckenmiller Critiques Yield Defense20:40 - Operation Twist And A Falling Dollar23:12 - Gold And Bitcoin Jump On Debasement27:54 - Are Rates Simply Back To Normal36:02 - AI Boom Data Signals Real Strength39:20 - Jackson Hole Expectations And Nvidia Setup41:49 - Market Breadth Levels And Investor Sentiment44:10 - The $40 Trillion Debt Context Check49:30 - Portfolio Diversifiers And Final Takeaways53:00 - Closing Thanks And How To SupportConnect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=enQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

There's a lot to unpack about the economic effects of artificial intelligence. It's clear that artificial intelligence is having a moment (to say the least) and that it has a profound impact on global GDP. But is it just a boom that will bust? Ed Zitron, author and host of the “Better Offline” podcast, is deeply worried about the long-term viability of the industry. He points out that AI lacks the basic traits that have been associated with previous software booms. This raises the question: is AI running more on unsustainable costs and vibes rather than long-term profit potential? According to Ed, the answer is clear. Note that is episode was originally released on 6/9/26.  Sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts to listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads. You'll also get exclusive bonus content from this and other shows. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

S&P futures are pointing to a slightly higher open. Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan all saw solid gains led by tech recoveries, while Australia's ASX outperformed on the back of strong corporate updates. Semiconductor stocks remained under pressure, driven by Monday's selloff in the SOX index. China recovered slightly despite uncertainty arising from reports of tariff increase on Chinese import goods. European markets are reacting to upgraded GDP figures out of Germany while shrugging off ongoing global trade disputes and AI sector volatility. Companies Mentioned: Meta, Warner Bros. Discovery

Who decided that the thing stopping people travelling was not money, but choice?What happens to a country when the holiday is designed so that the visitor never has to leave the compound?And of every hundred dollars you spend at an all-inclusive, how much do you think actually stays there?Gerard Blitz opened his first holiday village on a Majorcan beach in 1950 on the theory that what people wanted was not adventure but the removal of every decision — Peter Frankopan and Afua Hirsch follow that idea all the way to the gated resorts of the present.The all-inclusive is now worth close to a hundred billion dollars a year. In the Dominican Republic it accounts for more than seventy per cent of hotel rooms and helps generate over forty per cent of GDP. And of every hundred dollars a guest spends, roughly five stays in the local economy. The rest is repatriated to foreign operators, international airlines and global supply chains, along with the food flown in so that nobody has to eat anything unfamiliar. In water-stressed places, guests can use ten times what a local resident uses in a day. In Jamaica there is now a movement against the privatisation of beaches that local people can no longer reach. Afua has just come back from an Arawak village in the Guyanese Amazon where all-inclusive means something entirely different. Peter, who has enjoyed rather more package holidays than he lets on, is not convinced the answer is to take them away from people.Join Legacy Plus for bonus episodes, early access, Q&A's, fewer adverts and more.legacy.supportingcast.fm[0:00] Sun lounger wars at dawn, and the buffet as a way of life[7:58] Gerard Blitz, a Belgian on a Majorcan beach, and the founding of Club Med[14:59] A hundred billion dollars a year, and the country where all-inclusives are seventy per cent of the rooms[16:39] Five dollars in every hundred — where the rest of your money actually goes[17:54] Ten times the water a local resident uses in a day[26:47] The beaches in Jamaica that Jamaicans can no longer reach[31:07] Plantations sold as celebratory places, and what the industry assumes you cannot handle[34:14] Afua in the Amazon: an all-inclusive of a completely different kindStay connected with Legacy:Instagram: @originallegacypodcastTikTok: @legacy_productionsExplore more from Peter and Afua — essays, sources, and ideas:Substack: peterfrankopan.substack.com | afuahirsch.substack.comJoin Legacy+ for bonus episodes, early access, Q&A's, fewer adverts and more.legacy.supportingcast.fmStay connected with Legacy:Instagram: @originallegacypodcastTikTok: @legacy_productionsExplore more from Peter and Afua — essays, sources, and ideas: Substack: peterfrankopan.substack.com | afuahirsch.substack.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bonds may no longer provide the shelter investors have expected. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson talks about the changing relationship between inflation, yields and risk.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Bonds may no longer provide the shelter investors have exMike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the shifting landscape in macro markets.It's Monday, August 24th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it.Over the past few weeks we've seen large moves in rates, oil, gold and crypto. What does it mean for equities? First, investors are still treating these markets as separate stories, when they are all part of the same regime shift that began with COVID. More than six years ago, in the depths of that recession, I argued investors should prepare for the return of inflation. That was a very out of consensus view. At that time, the world was obsessed with deflation, the 10-year Treasury yield was below 1 percent, stocks had been hit hard, and gold was sitting around $1,500 an ounce. But the policy response to COVID – what I called helicopter money – changed the game. It marked the end of the 40-year disinflationary regime and a very different investment environment for investors to navigate. It is also the foundation of our run it hot thesis. In a world where inflation has returned, cycles are likely to be shorter, policy more reactive, and leadership changes more frequent. That is very different from the 1982-to-2020 period. Then falling inflation and falling rates allowed economic cycles to stretch for eight or 10 years. We are now in a world that looks more like the post-World War II era: stronger nominal GDP growth, more persistent inflation, higher economic volatility, and a bond market that is no longer the tailwind it used to be for risk assets. In short, the great secular bull market in bonds ended with COVID. This has huge implications for investors of all stripes. My near term view on rates is also different from the mainstream. A lot of investors are saying rates are rising because of debt and deficits. I am not dismissing those factors. But I think the bigger driver is strong nominal GDP growth, which really is the result of aggressive fiscal policy since the pandemic. We are in an era of fiscal dominance, and in that environment the Treasury and the Fed are forced to find ways to fund deficits without breaking markets. That is how I interpret the Treasury's recent buyback activity. I don't think this is quantitative easing or yield-curve control. The scale of the program is not large enough. Instead, it's just another tool to maintain market functioning and stable financial conditions. So when I look at the large move in precious metals and crypto last week, to me it suggests that markets believe this is just a first step toward larger intervention – if financial conditions tighten further. For equities, this all reinforces the quality rotation we have been recommending. Since the peak rate of change in earnings revisions breadth in June, led by Semiconductors, the market has gone through a significant leadership change. Quality factors have started to outperform after a year of lagging, which is exactly what we would expect as a post-recession recovery matures. High free cash flow, high gross margins, stable sales growth, and low capex-to-sales factors have all been working. Some investors are frustrated that the S&P 500 barely sold off during the historic momentum unwind. But if quality is coming back into favor, that makes perfect sense. The S&P 500 is one of the highest-quality benchmarks in the world. Leadership at the stock level may continue to morph, but index leadership for the S&P is unlikely to fade – and may even get stronger. The near-term risk remains oil. Brent crude prices have moved higher over the past couple of weeks. And rising oil has historically been a much more reliable headwind for equities than falling oil has been a tailwind. Our still constructive equity view does not require crude to collapse. It simply requires crude to stop rising. If oil spikes again because the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, that could pressure input costs, push yields and bond volatility higher, and create another round of market instability. Bottom line, the run it hot regime is alive and well. It supports equities. But it also shortens cycles, increases rotations, and forces investors to be more tactical at times. I currently like large-cap quality stocks, AI adopters, and the S&P 500 over international peers. Hedge the oil risk with energy stocks and keep your head on a swivel as we navigate the next phase of this recovery and bull market. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

────────────────────────────────────────[00:00:49]Trump Stabbed Cattlemen in the Back — Imports 300,000 Metric Tons of Tariff-Free Beef 74 Days Before MidtermsCattle herd at lowest since 1956; frozen imports won't fix grocery store prices; damages domestic ranchers for a temporary election-season sugar high.────────────────────────────────────────[00:02:34]Trump Just Admitted His Tariffs Raise Prices — He's Exempting Beef Because They DoNow explicitly acknowledging what we always knew: tariffs are taxes on consumers; MAGA influencers who promised tariffs would replace the income tax are silent.────────────────────────────────────────[00:20:19]Trent Loos: This Is the Biggest Land Grab Since the Indian Wars — and We're Not Fighting BackWorking with WEF's Larry Fink to push people off the land; three Nebraska congressmen who support data centers also applauded the beef import move.────────────────────────────────────────[01:03:37]Ray Dalio: Sell Bonds, Buy Gold — a US Debt Crisis Could Arrive in Three YearsReduce the deficit from 6% to 3% of GDP; countries always solve this by printing money, devaluing the currency, and creating artificially low interest rates.────────────────────────────────────────[01:06:34]Bessent Is George Soros's Former Right-Hand Man — MAGA Said Nothing When Trump Appointed HimAny Democrat with Soros connections gets destroyed; when Bessent comes in, crickets; cult of personality; all economic sense and rule of law thrown out.────────────────────────────────────────[01:09:16]Bessent's Plan to Buy Long-Term Bonds With Short-Term Debt Is Quantitative Easing by Another NameCan set short-term T-bill rates but not long-term yields; a gimmick that can't be sustained — money printing with a different label.────────────────────────────────────────[01:12:39]Trump Added 30% of All US Debt Accumulated in 250 Years — Then Said We'll Grow Our Way Out of ItHis growth is a malignant tumor — debt growing faster than the economy; can't grow out of debt compounding faster than GDP; making American debtors again.────────────────────────────────────────[01:26:04]Thomas Kaplan: Gold Is Headed 10 Times Higher — Silver Is the Thoughtful Person's BitcoinCleared his decks before the 2007 crisis; sees today rhyming with then; average down if you're underwater; get something outside the digital world that can't be blocked.────────────────────────────────────────[01:32:28]Darlene Graham Was a Branch Covidian in 2020 — Pushed Masks, Social Distancing, and Diversity CommitteesCan't find Taiwan on a map; hedging on abortion; was a COVID true believer; Tim Scott says she's qualified; Trump says she's totally for the military.────────────────────────────────────────[01:35:22]Darth Vader Supports Flock at Data Center Protest — The Emperor Must Follow the Rebel Scum From Playground to PlaygroundThe COVID mask regime and the surveillance state are run by the same people; a whole civilization will die if we don't stop this. ──────────────────────────────────────── Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.

────────────────────────────────────────[00:00:49]Trump Stabbed Cattlemen in the Back — Imports 300,000 Metric Tons of Tariff-Free Beef 74 Days Before MidtermsCattle herd at lowest since 1956; frozen imports won't fix grocery store prices; damages domestic ranchers for a temporary election-season sugar high.────────────────────────────────────────[00:02:34]Trump Just Admitted His Tariffs Raise Prices — He's Exempting Beef Because They DoNow explicitly acknowledging what we always knew: tariffs are taxes on consumers; MAGA influencers who promised tariffs would replace the income tax are silent.────────────────────────────────────────[00:20:19]Trent Loos: This Is the Biggest Land Grab Since the Indian Wars — and We're Not Fighting BackWorking with WEF's Larry Fink to push people off the land; three Nebraska congressmen who support data centers also applauded the beef import move.────────────────────────────────────────[01:03:37]Ray Dalio: Sell Bonds, Buy Gold — a US Debt Crisis Could Arrive in Three YearsReduce the deficit from 6% to 3% of GDP; countries always solve this by printing money, devaluing the currency, and creating artificially low interest rates.────────────────────────────────────────[01:06:34]Bessent Is George Soros's Former Right-Hand Man — MAGA Said Nothing When Trump Appointed HimAny Democrat with Soros connections gets destroyed; when Bessent comes in, crickets; cult of personality; all economic sense and rule of law thrown out.────────────────────────────────────────[01:09:16]Bessent's Plan to Buy Long-Term Bonds With Short-Term Debt Is Quantitative Easing by Another NameCan set short-term T-bill rates but not long-term yields; a gimmick that can't be sustained — money printing with a different label.────────────────────────────────────────[01:12:39]Trump Added 30% of All US Debt Accumulated in 250 Years — Then Said We'll Grow Our Way Out of ItHis growth is a malignant tumor — debt growing faster than the economy; can't grow out of debt compounding faster than GDP; making American debtors again.────────────────────────────────────────[01:26:04]Thomas Kaplan: Gold Is Headed 10 Times Higher — Silver Is the Thoughtful Person's BitcoinCleared his decks before the 2007 crisis; sees today rhyming with then; average down if you're underwater; get something outside the digital world that can't be blocked.────────────────────────────────────────[01:32:28]Darlene Graham Was a Branch Covidian in 2020 — Pushed Masks, Social Distancing, and Diversity CommitteesCan't find Taiwan on a map; hedging on abortion; was a COVID true believer; Tim Scott says she's qualified; Trump says she's totally for the military.────────────────────────────────────────[01:35:22]Darth Vader Supports Flock at Data Center Protest — The Emperor Must Follow the Rebel Scum From Playground to PlaygroundThe COVID mask regime and the surveillance state are run by the same people; a whole civilization will die if we don't stop this. ──────────────────────────────────────── Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

Some think the India Free Trade Agreement will produce more benefits than even the Government expects. The agreement is moving through Parliament, before it's ratified. The International Business Forum and Westpac have released new research on how the deal will contribute to value. Forum Executive Director Felicity Roxburgh says it shows Government forecasts of 0.1% GDP growth in the next decade undersell the benefits. She told Mike Hosking they can't put a good number on it, but India is on track to be the world's third largest economy by the end of the decade. Roxburgh says their middle class will exceed the entire population of the EU or ASEAN, so it's a big opportunity for New Zealand. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It's ev.news Briefly for Tuesday 18 August 2026, only todays headlines and nothing else, in just 4 minutes if you haven't got time for the full show.Patreon supporters fund this show, get the episodes ad free, as soon as they're ready and are part of the ev.news Community. You can be like them by clicking here: https://www.patreon.com/evnewsIONNA AND WALMART PRESSURE FAST-CHARGING PRICESWalmart is expanding its own network with Electrify America, ABB and 400-kW Alpitronic NACS/CCS chargers offering Walmart+ members 10% off, while automaker-backed Ionna targets 30,000 US and Canadian ports by 2030 with stores and restrooms. Paren data shows Ionna averages $0.37/kWh, the cheapest of 17 networks and about 40% below Tesla and Electrify America's $0.56, though home charging still dominates at more than 90% of sessions and $0.18/kWh.ZEEKR TO LAUNCH 8X AND 9X IN AUSTRALIAZeekr will add the 9X and 8X luxury plug-in hybrid SUVs to its all-electric Australian range from late 2026 into 2027, after passing 10,000 local sales in under two years. The three-row 8X targets the BMW X5 and Range Rover Sport below A$100,000 with 900-volt charging, while the 9X moves upmarket at around A$150,000 with six-seat luxury and Naim audio; both are heavy, road-focused monocoque vehicles rather than off-roaders.LI SHUFU LEAVES GEELY AUTO CHAIRLi Shufu has resigned as chairman of Geely Automobile after 40 years, with An Conghui succeeding him on 18 August 2026 and Li becoming honorary chairman for life while remaining controlling shareholder and chairman of Zhejiang Geely Holding. Gan Jiayue becomes CEO as the group shifts from family-centred management toward professional systems, targeting two-thirds of sales outside China and 5% market share by 2030 across Europe, the Americas and Southeast Asia.LEIPZIG PREPARES FOR NEUE KLASSEBMW halted Leipzig production for a five-and-a-half-week summer shutdown in which over 2,000 contractors replaced 240 hydraulic lifting tables, installed 160 body-shop robots and swapped roughly 1,500 tonnes of steel to handle Neue Klasse underbodies integrating the battery and powertrain. BMW spent a low three-digit million sum on top of nearly €2 billion over five years, though it has not named which models Leipzig will build, as new i3 production began in Munich this month.SPARKCHARGE EXPANDS UK ENERGY NETWORKSparkCharge is bringing its US distributed energy model to the UK, serving autonomous fleets, construction and industrial sites that cannot wait for adequate grid connections. Founded by CEO Joshua Aviv and already operating across North America, the company will combine AI-optimised software, battery storage and on-site generation under new UK managing director James Taylor.FEDERAL PACKAGE TARGETS HEAVY EV BARRIERSAustralia has committed $400 million to heavy-vehicle reforms targeting charging barriers, automated permits, curfews and weight limits, announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers after a Productivity Commission report found road-freight productivity had stalled for over a decade. The Commission estimated wider access for high-productivity and zero-emission trucks could add up to $4 billion to GDP annually, with electric trucks currently under 1% of Australian heavy-vehicle sales.ŠKODA ADDS V2L AND CAMP MODEŠkoda has added Vehicle-to-Load bidirectional charging, which powers external devices via a 230V boot socket, and an app-activated Camp Mode that maintains overnight cabin temperature with at least 30% charge. The new Peaq will also offer a Relax Package with AGR-certified massaging seats, electric leg rests and Sonos audio, plus a Wellbeing app, ventilated Phone Box and up to four 45W USB-C ports.BEACHMAN TARGETS OLD BIKES FOR ELECTRIC CONVERSIONBeachman Bikes is seeking broken motorcycles for electric conversion, building on founders Ben Taylor and Steve Payne's first prototype, a modified 1979 Kawasaki KZ200 completed in 2020, and a production run of 30 bikes on a 1970s 125cc platform. Having sold the 45 mph '64 as a Class II e-bike, the company is moving to pedal-free low-speed motorcycles in Canada and plans to end US e-bike sales next year to become a moped and motorcycle manufacturer.BRISBANE RIVER E-SCOOTERS STAY UNDERWATERAugust low tides exposed dozens of dumped Lime, Neuron and Beam e-scooters in the Brisbane River, including 24 near the CBD, with Ocean Crusaders having collected around 150 in the past year and storing the waterlogged batteries privately. Water experts warned that lithium, copper, nickel, cobalt and manganese could accumulate in sediment and harm macroinvertebrates, while the council caps operators at 7,100 devices and reportedly earned just over AUD$5m last financial year.

Labour's confident stagnant property prices won't hurt its plans to slash debt if re-elected. The party's seeking to return to surplus by the end of the decade and lower net debt to 20% of GDP over time. Its plans hinge on a fully implemented Capital Gains Tax. Labour Leader Chris Hipkins told Mike Hosking that it's not expected the sliding property market will continue. He says even the current government's budgeting for property prices to return to a long term average growth of around three percent. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Right, a poll the Government should be worried about - whose fault is the economy? The importance of this is based on the simple premise that this election is about one thing, which is the state of the place. Is it getting better, or not? Do you see a brighter future, or not? Forget all the other issues and policies because they're frippery. All that matters is the state of your wallet, your finances, your lifestyle, your hopes and your aspirations. The Government will argue they inherited a mess and it was so big that it takes time to turn it all around. For a while they had us onside. We believed them, mainly because it was true. History will show what labour did 2017-23, and particularly 2020-23 is one for the record books. Things were coming right until the war then the momentum was lost. It's now back, to a degree. GDP is growing and major sectors like manufacturing and services are in expansion. Jobs are still an issue and confidence is fragile. So their job is to re-convince you that they had it in hand but Trump got in the way. "Just stick with us and she'll be right". So, to the poll Horizon did in the early part of this month. 31% say yep, it's Trump's fault. 17% say it was Labour. But 29% say it's on this Government. Now like all polls, you can read it a million ways. The 31% who say Trump and the 17% who say Labour makes 48%. That is not a majority. 31%, 17% and the 29% blaming the Government makes up 77%, so that's 23% who don't know. Between the "don't knows" and the 48% you can talk your way to victory. But if the 23% of "don't knows" go with the 17%, at 40% that's a lot of people who don't believe you and you're in trouble. You could be positive and suggest that the 29% who think it's on the Government is not actually that many, so their argument is landing well. But they would need to swing a few of the "don't knows" their way to make sure. Either way, this is what this vote comes down to. The evidence, although there and growing, is not cemented in enough yet to feel really confident. On these numbers I would rather be the Government than not. But on these numbers it is still all there to play for. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, joins us to explain why today's economy and stock market are increasingly defined by rotation, instability and a changing stock-bond relationship. We discuss AI capital spending and earnings concentration, Treasury yields and the deficit, immigration and labor supply, investor sentiment, market breadth, portfolio rebalancing, IPOs and the growing economic importance of the stock market wealth effect.Topics covered:Why the post-pandemic economy is moving through sector-level recessions and expansions instead of a traditional linear cycleThe return of a more temperamental market regime, inflation volatility and the changing correlation between stocks and bondsWhy volatility-based rebalancing may matter more than calendar-based rebalancing and why market leadership is broadeningImmigration, labor shortages and why slower population growth changes how investors should interpret payroll dataFederal deficits, entitlement spending, rising 30-year Treasury yields and why Treasury intervention cannot solve the underlying fundamentalsHow the AI spending boom, imports and hyperscaler capital expenditures are affecting GDP, bond issuance and capital marketsCorporate profits versus labor compensation and why Liz Ann does not see an obvious near-term catalyst for convergenceKevin Warsh, reduced Fed guidance and why less communication could create more market uncertaintyAttitudinal versus behavioral investor sentiment, the vibe session and why sentiment is becoming harder to use as a timing signalThe AI cascade beyond mega-cap tech, the Neural Nine, small caps and why rotation may be the new momentum tradeMargin debt, record household equity exposure and the risk that a future stock market decline feeds back into the economyS&P 500 earnings concentration, sell-side versus buy-side expectations, AI depreciation risk and the return of a major IPO cycleTimestamps:00:00 Liz Ann Sonders on the unusual 2026 market and economic cycle05:49 Portfolio construction, diversification and volatility-based rebalancing11:39 Immigration, labor supply and the new payroll breakeven rate17:38 Why long-term Treasury yields are rising and what the Treasury can and cannot fix22:07 Corporate profits versus labor compensation as a share of GDP27:37 Attitudinal versus behavioral sentiment and lessons from 202232:13 The vibe session, consumer confidence and conflicting investor expectations37:14 The Neural Nine, widening stock dispersion and rotation as the new momentum41:21 Margin debt, leveraged speculation and where the real risk may be45:52 S&P 500 earnings growth, concentration and the sell-side versus buy-side gap50:27 Hyperscaler AI capex, debt financing and signals from the corporate bond market55:05 IPOs, FOMO and why investors should be careful about chasing new issues60:05 Where to follow the real Liz Ann Sonders and avoid impersonator scamsLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

-- On the Show: -- Democrat Brandon Dukes defeats Republican Scott Timko in Pennsylvania's 12th state House district, which Trump carried by 18 points -- Tetanus cases rise as childhood vaccination rates drop under Donald Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. -- Economic data reveals slowing GDP growth, rising gas prices, and high mortgage rates, directly contradicting Trump's economic promises -- A letter shows White House aide Natalie Harp apologizing to Donald Trump for embarrassing him while admitting she forgets to eat and sleep -- Donald Trump threatens Oman and orders a journalist to be quiet after his deadline passes without resolving the conflict with Iran -- Donald Trump criticizes Texas Governor Greg Abbott for pausing AI data-center approvals despite polls showing strong local opposition -- The Friday Feedback segment -- On the Bonus Show: Scott Bessent can't understand why oil prices spiked, viral moments from Tim Pool's Jubilee appearance, and much more...

What is a recession, and are we in one now? Today I'm flying solo to talk about the US economy, its current state, and what to expect during the second half of the year.  A recession is generally characterized by negative gross domestic product (GDP), rising unemployment, falling retail prices, and contracting measures of income and manufacturing lasting months or years. Recessions are often classified as two consecutive quarters of plummeting GDP growth, which the US economy is currently experiencing.  GDP fell at an annual rate of 0.9% in the second quarter this year, following the last quarter's decline of 1.6%.  But before we talk about these figures, let's take a step back and look at the four to five consecutive quarters with the most significant revenue growth in the last 15 years.  US real GDP rose at an annual rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021, following a 2.3% growth in the third quarter, a 6.7% pace in the second quarter, and a 6.3% increase during the first quarter of the same year.  Despite the two recent negative quarters, we need to look at the numbers and what they represent. Moreover, a negative GDP growth rate does not necessarily connote that the economy is entering a recession. In this episode, you will learn about the US economy, GDP, recession, and why running a country is similar to running a business.  Here are some of the things I get into: The real GDP growth in the US for the first two quarters of 2022.  The definition of recession. How economists determine whether the economy is in a recession.  Why we need to look at the data and consider the previous quarters. Why a negative GDP does not indicate a recession. Connect with Darius: Website: https://therealdarius.com/ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dariusmirshahzadeh/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/imthedarius/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@Thegreatnessmachine  Book: The Core Value Equation https://www.amazon.com/Core-Value-Equation-Framework-Limitless/dp/1544506708 Write a review for The Greatness Machine using this link: https://ratethispodcast.com/spreadinggreatness. 

The national debt just crossed $40 trillion, and it took only 95 days to add the last trillion, so Erick Erickson opens with the math nobody in Washington wants: our debt now exceeds our GDP, Social Security and Medicare are the engine, and neither party will touch it. He plays Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on […]

What a week! Crypto surged. Bond yields jumped. Technology stocks got hit. Economic data kept traders guessing. And now Wall Street is preparing for one of the biggest earnings reports of the quarter. In today's Trading Week Wrap Up!, we'll connect the dots between the biggest market-moving stories of the week and, more importantly, discuss what they could mean as we head into a potentially HUGE week for the markets. Let's start with crypto. Bitcoin is on pace for its best week in more than two years, surging more than 20% as improving regulatory sentiment, Washington's increasingly crypto-friendly stance, and changing liquidity expectations breathed life back into the beaten-down digital asset market. Ethereum and many altcoins joined the party as well. So... Is the crypto winter finally ending, or is this just another massive bear-market rally? We'll break it down. Then there's the bond market. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, creating another challenge for stocks—particularly high-growth technology and AI companies whose valuations can be extremely sensitive to borrowing costs and interest rates. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 this week, while semiconductor stocks came under significant pressure. We'll discuss: Crypto's huge rebound – Is Bitcoin signaling a genuine change in trend? Interest rates & bond yields – Why the bond market continues to be one of the biggest risks facing equities. Technology volatility – Is the recent weakness an opportunity, or are investors finally questioning some of those massive AI valuations? Economic data – What this week's numbers tell us about inflation, growth and the direction of Federal Reserve policy. The broader market – Where are we seeing strength, weakness and potential trading opportunities? And then...

In this episode of 47 Morning Update w Ben Ferguson, Ben examines America’s $40 trillion debt milestone, the Congressional Budget Office’s projections for future borrowing, and the rising cost of servicing the national debt. They discuss debt-to-GDP ratios, annual federal deficits, interest payments approaching $1 trillion per year, and the broader debate over whether Washington’s spending habits are creating risks for future generations. The United States has officially crossed a historic threshold: $40 trillion in gross federal debt. According to figures discussed in this episode, the debt burden is now roughly comparable to the size of the entire U.S. economy, raising concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability and the growing cost of interest payments.The discussion focuses on how federal spending continues to outpace revenue, the rapid growth of annual deficits, and projections that debt held by the public could exceed previous post-World War II records in the years ahead. Topics Covered: America surpasses $40 trillion in gross federal debt Federal spending exceeds revenue by nearly $2 trillion annually Congressional Budget Office projections for debt-to-GDP growth Rising federal interest costs and their budget impact Historical comparisons to post-World War II debt levels The political debate over government spending and fiscal responsibility Please Hit Subscribe to this podcast Right Now. Also Please Subscribe to the The Ben Ferguson Show Podcast and Verdict with Ted Cruz Wherever You get You're Podcasts. And don't forget to follow the show on Social Media so you never miss a moment! Thanks for Listening X: https://x.com/benfergusonshowYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, Bryan breaks down America's national debt hitting a staggering $40 trillion, tracing how decades of spending and tax cuts under both parties brought the country to this point. Bryan covers a new CATO Institute analysis showing Democratic Socialist policy demands would require up to $212 trillion in new spending, AOC's struggle to explain the difference between socialism and communism, and her party's celebration of Fidel Castro's 100th birthday. He also breaks down a Minnesota state lawmaker's blunt admission that democracy is just a placeholder until a "politburo of loyalists" can take over. Plus, Bryan covers the secret US Navy and CIA flotilla operation now moving nearly half of pre-war oil volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, Israel's airstrike on a Turkish-rebuilt Syrian airbase, a bombshell speech from Ukraine's former defense minister challenging President Zelenskyy to hold elections, and new research linking WWII-era British sugar rationing to longer, healthier adult lives. "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32   Keywords: Wright Report, Bryan Dean Wright, national debt, $40 trillion, debt to GDP, Democratic Socialists, AOC, Bernie Sanders, Fidel Castro, communism, Minnesota, Strait of Hormuz, oil blockade, CIA, Israel, Syria, Turkey, Erdogan, Ukraine, Zelenskyy, election, sugar rationing, cancer research

Imagine being 23 years old and suddenly facing the possibility that you may never come home.Bruce Bryan wrongfully convicted of murder and sentenced to life in prison. He would spend more than 29 years inside maximum-security prisons across New York State, including Sing Sing, for a crime he did not commit.In this powerful episode of Nightmare Success In and Out, Bruce joins Brent Cassity to share how he survived nearly three decades behind bars without allowing bitterness to define him. Through education, personal development and mentoring others, Bruce transformed his mindset from victim, to survivor, to “thriver.”Remarkably, while still incarcerated at Sing Sing, Bruce competed against approximately 200 other incarcerated men and was selected to deliver a TEDx talk, using his voice to address the often-overlooked impact incarceration has on children and families.His clemency application ultimately grew to nearly 500 pages documenting his case, education and accomplishments. After receiving clemency and finally walking free, Bruce turned his experience into purpose. Today, he is a human justice advocate and change strategist using his voice to fight wrongful convictions and advocate for criminal justice reform.This is an unforgettable conversation about wrongful conviction, prison, resilience, mindset, clemency, freedom and what it means to go from victim—to survivor—to thriver.Your circumstances may imprison your body. They don't have to imprison your mind.

Andy Constan is back on First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth.Follow First Principles on Spotify⁠⁠Follow First Principles of Apple PodcastsTopics coveredWhy rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock pricesWhy Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisisThe "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset pricesHow the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiumsWhy Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shiftHow Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditionsWhy the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuanceAndy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROIWhy capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycleHow Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projectsThe "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economyWhat Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supplyTimestamps00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stressLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Gregory Copley analyzes China's recent ICBM test in the South China Sea, interpreting it as "Wolf Warrior diplomacy" designed to signal naval reach to the US and regional neighbors. Australia is countering this threat through the AUKUSand Five Eyes alliances, though Copley notes a lack of cohesion between current heads of government. He highlights Canada's significant pivot under Mark Carney toward independent defense spending, reaching 5% of GDP to secure the Northwest Passage and Arctic interests. Regarding Yemen, Copley argues the Houthis represent the legitimate military weight of North Yemen, while the internationally recognized government is merely a "Saudi puppet." He suggests Western diplomacy should deal directly with the Houthis rather than adhering to Saudi preferences. Additionally, Copley provides a historical defense of Charles I, arguing his execution was an illegal abrogation of the social contract. He maintains that constitutional monarchies remain a viable and flourishing modern system. (3)

TABLE OF CONTENTS, JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 8-18-2026Liz Peek discusses the resilience of the American economy, noting that high-end consumer spending remains strong despite recession fears. Small businesses are reportedly "humming," with hiring and profitability reaching their highest levels since 2026. This economic momentum is increasingly driven by a massive boom in AI development, which has created an exponential demand for long-term capital. However, this appetite for money is pressuring the bond market, leading to higher mortgage rates that hinder the housing industry. Peek highlights a growing divide between red and blue states, where the former are more likely to embrace AI investment while the latter resist it. She also addresses the influence of Hasan Piker, a radical Twitch streamer who mobilizes young men for Democratic candidates like Abdul El-Sayed. Despite concerns about AI-related job losses, Peek argues it is a vital tool for productivity and medical advancement. (1)Jonathan Schanzer examines the fractured state of Hamas, noting the group currently controls only 30% of Gaza while facing internal discord over potential disarmament. International negotiators are discussing a "disarm first" condition, which Hamas leadership currently rejects, demanding an Israeli withdrawal instead—a term Schanzer deems unacceptable to any Israeli leader. The conversation turns to Iran, where Donald Trump has threatened to bomb Omandue to its perceived collaboration with the Iranian regime. Despite its "Switzerland of the Middle East" reputation, Oman hosts Houthi and IRGC headquarters, facilitating intelligence and weapon transfers. Schanzer warns that Iran is in "war mode," coordinating closely with its proxy network to prepare for future violence. He also details the rapid rearmament of the Syrian military under Turkish and Russian influence, which concerns Israel. Finally, a new Sunni alliance between Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia seeks to diminish Iranian Shiite power. (2)Gregory Copley analyzes China's recent ICBM test in the South China Sea, interpreting it as "Wolf Warrior diplomacy" designed to signal naval reach to the US and regional neighbors. Australia is countering this threat through the AUKUSand Five Eyes alliances, though Copley notes a lack of cohesion between current heads of government. He highlights Canada's significant pivot under Mark Carney toward independent defense spending, reaching 5% of GDP to secure the Northwest Passage and Arctic interests. Regarding Yemen, Copley argues the Houthis represent the legitimate military weight of North Yemen, while the internationally recognized government is merely a "Saudi puppet." He suggests Western diplomacy should deal directly with the Houthis rather than adhering to Saudi preferences. Additionally, Copley provides a historical defense of Charles I, arguing his execution was an illegal abrogation of the social contract. He maintains that constitutional monarchies remain a viable and flourishing modern system. (3)Mary Kissel discusses the strained US-South Korea alliance, where disagreements over military funding have prompted Seoul to seek independent nuclear-powered submarine capabilities. She characterizes North Korea as a reckless actor that has committed tens of thousands of combat troops and ballistic missiles to aid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Kissel critiques the "transactional nature" of current diplomacy, noting that contradictory signals toward Kim Jong-unundermine national security strategies. Regarding Oman, she defends the nation as a moderate partner vital for counterterrorism and the release of detained Americans, viewing Trump's threats to bomb the country as an expression of frustration over Iran. Kissel also highlights political successes in South America, where center-right victories in Colombia and Chile represent a return to capitalist principles and closer ties with the US. She concludes by noting that environmental factors like El Niño will soon challenge regional stability in Brazil. (4)Joseph Sternberg addresses the looming "year of doom" in 2032, when the Social Security trust fund is projected to run out. Without reform, benefits could be slashed by 22% to match current payroll tax revenues, creating a massive political crisis. Sternberg explores potential remedies such as means testing for high-earners like Elon Musk or raising the payroll tax cap, though he warns these could impact broader economic growth. He highlights the generational fairness issue of asking younger workers to fund benefits that baby boomers were unprepared to pay for themselves. The discussion also covers the rise of Hasan Piker, a popular Twitch streamer who broadcasts far-left economic views to a younger audience. While Piker is photogenic and compelling, Sternberg describes him as a "popularizer" rather than a deep thinker. Piker's pugnacious approach serves as a bellwether for whether radical progressive ideas can succeed in general elections. (5)Thaddeus McCotter analyzes the recent Michigan Democratic primary, where Dr. Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated the establishment candidate, Haley Stevens. El-Sayed, an "anti-establishment" fighter endorsed by Bernie Sanders, capitalized on unhappiness within the Democratic base, particularly in counties with large young populations like Washtenaw and Kent. While El-Sayed distances himself from the "Socialist" label, he supports extensive economic regulation and holds anti-Israel sentiments popular in Ann Arbor. McCotter notes that the Democratic establishment is now rallying around El-Sayed to preserve their Senate majority, hoping a "common enemy" in Donald Trump will bridge internal divides. Republican candidate Mike Rogers, a former Intelligence Committee chair, plans to counter El-Sayed by focusing on manufacturing, border security, and the risks of "Medicare for All" to seniors. McCotter warns that Trump's messaging on the "Iran war" and rising inflation remains a significant hurdle for Republican candidates in the general election. (6)Bob Zimmerman reports on the successful recovery of a SpaceX Starship near Christmas Island, which remained seaworthy for 24 days after a vertical splashdown in the Indian Ocean. This achievement, along with SpaceX's record-breaking launch frequency, signals a "renaissance to American ingenuity." Zimmerman notes that Elon Musk's political involvement was a defensive reaction to the Biden administration's regulatory pressure on his companies. In the Ukraineconflict, Ukrainian missiles successfully targeted a Russian factory producing Soyuz-2 rockets, aiming to cripple Russia's military satellite and drone communication capabilities. Regarding spaceport expansion, Zimmerman details SpaceX's potential new site in Louisiana, which offers hundreds of square miles for operations. He also critiques government-funded spaceports, like those in Australia or New Mexico, which often fail because they lack dedicated rocket companies as customers. Finally, research on mice aboard the International Space Station suggests that weightlessness does not fundamentally damage the heart's contracting mechanisms. (7)Two corrections applied, pending your confirmation: Hasan Piker (transcribed as "Hassan," segments 1 and 5 — the Twitch streamer spells it with one s) and Washtenaw County (transcribed as "Washington," segment 6 — Ann Arbor's county, which fits the context of young Democratic voters; flag me if the audio genuinely said Washington).

From chocolate and sugar prices to energy markets and inflation, El Niño's impacts may soon reach far beyond the weather forecast. Our Latin America Agribusiness Analyst Julia Rizzo maps out where the pressure could emerge first.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Julia Rizzo, Latin America Agribusiness Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Today: how El Niño could move from the Pacific into commodity markets, grocery prices, and investor portfolios. It's Wednesday, August 19th, at 10am in Sao Paulo.You may not follow rainfall patterns in Brazil or cocoa-growing conditions in West Africa. But you immediately notice when chocolate, groceries, or electricity cost more. And you can connect the dots to El Niño -- a warming cycle in the Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather globally. It changes where rain falls and shapes the outlook for crops, power markets, transportation, and inflation. There is now a 95 percent chance of a very strong El Niño in the fourth quarter of 2026. It could end up being among the most powerful events in more than 75 years of recorded history. Timing and location matter greatly. Crop damage often depends on whether heat or heavy rain arrives during a narrow planting, flowering, or harvest window. The most direct effects are likely to appear first in commodities. Sugar is on the list of commodities most exposed to favorable price dynamics from weather conditions. Cocoa also looks tight. Grains are more complicated. Soybeans need evidence of a net South American production loss. Problems in northern Brazil may be offset by stronger crops in Argentina or Brazil south. Corn is even more dependent on timing. The key near-term catalyst remains U.S. weather and crops. What happens next matters well beyond agricultural markets. Food is the main channel through which El Niño reaches the broader economy, and the effect usually appears after a one-year lag. That makes inflation primarily a 2027 story. In Latin America, the largest incremental inflation risks are concentrated in Peru, Brazil, and Colombia, with most of the pressure arriving in 2027. That matters for central banks. Weather shocks can fade. So, policymakers often look through an initial rise in food prices. The greater concern is that higher food costs may begin to influence inflation expectations, wages, rents, or other prices across the economy. Colombia stands out as the clearest case where those second-round effects could complicate monetary policy. India and Indonesia also face meaningful economic exposure. Agriculture accounts for a large share of output and employment in these countries. India is especially sensitive. Agriculture represents about 18 percent of the GDP, 43 to 45 [percent] of jobs, while food makes up roughly 36 percent of the consumer price basket. Record food reserves may provide some protection, though a poor growing season could still weigh on rural incomes and keep food inflation elevated. The economic consequences will vary widely. Higher agricultural prices can support farmer income and benefit some parts of the food and agricultural supply chain. They can also raise costs for households, food producers, and businesses that depend on grains and sugar. Utilities may benefit in markets where hotter or drier conditions lift electricity prices, while heavy rainfall could disrupt transport routes and airports in those exposed regions. Historical asset-price signals are limited, so this is less of a broad macro trade than a detailed assessment of local exposure. Rainfall, crop timing, inventories, and the ability to pass higher costs on to consumers will determine where the pressure lands. El Niño may begin in the Pacific, but its market footprint can travel from cocoa farms in West Africa to a grocery aisle, a power grid, or a central bank meeting. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Brian Szytel reviews a rotation-heavy market day with the Dow up 120 points, the S&P 500 up about 0.25%, and the Nasdaq slightly higher, as equal-weight outperformed cap-weighted amid big moves in pharma and some late earnings from tech/AI. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 7 bps to about 4.64%, following remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about shifting issuance toward the short end and using it to buy back some long-end debt; while the $20B buyback is small versus the $5T in 20–30 year Treasuries, the signal suggests an effort to lower long-term rates, potentially at odds with a Fed under Warsh aiming to let markets tighten or loosen. He also explains Japan's debt dynamics: while gross debt/GDP is ~240%, netting BOJ holdings and government assets brings it closer to ~80%, though higher JGB rates could raise debt-service costs and pressure the yen and BOJ policy. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:21 Market Close Recap 00:56 Treasury Buyback Shock 01:58 Fed Versus Treasury 03:46 Japan Debt Question 04:07 Net Debt Breakdown 05:06 Rates Yen and BOJ 06:11 Wrap Up and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

What happens when legendary venture capital investors and pioneering media entrepreneurs replace traditional studio infrastructure with AI digital twins? In this throwback episode of our Edge of AI Podcast, host Ron Levy sits down with Tim Draper and Mark Scarpa.Mark breaks down how Defiance.TV operates as the first AI-powered television network, utilizing digital twins, automated script writing, AI fact-checking, and decentralized IPFS blockchain distribution to maintain journalistic integrity across 160 million households. Tim shares how his own AI doppelganger on Draper TV broadcasts daily news updates on several hundred portfolio companies in up to 22 native languages, surprisingly serving as his own daily intelligence briefing.Discover Tim Draper's vision for decentralized governance using AI to streamline bloated government bureaucracies, aligning performance incentives with GDP growth, and why Bitcoin and blockchain ledgers will eliminate modern accounting and auditing friction.Support us through our Sponsors! ☕ Want to make content like ours? Sign up with Castmagic to make your creative process easy: https://bit.ly/CastmagicReferral Work smarter, grow faster. Automate your SEO, get AI insights, and manage all your clients in one place with Helm. Start today 50% off your first month at helmseo.comDouble your team's efficiency with COCO. Hire dedicated AI employees for copywriting, research, and CRM. Use code REF-W8CBVH for an exclusive 5% off your first order: https://coco.xyz/dashboard/hire/plan?ref=REF-W8CBVH Do you want to grow a business? Go from an idea to livebusiness in minutes. Use our Referral code: edgeof to 50% off your first month at https://www.willo.ai/When you purchase through these links, we may earn a commission. ____

We all know that we need money to survive, but most of us don't spend much time considering its form and uses. Debt, interest, GDP, and capital just seem to follow almost natural laws. But J.W. Mason argues that we misunderstand money, and its power over our lives, at our peril. J. W. Mason and Arjun Jayadev, Against Money University of Chicago Press, 2026 Photo by Alexander Schimmeck on Unsplash The post What's Money For? appeared first on KPFA.

Consumer spending fell in early August, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan's survey. July retail sales were down, and the average price of gas is nearing a record high for August. In today's episode, we look at how consumers could be cutting discretionary spending as a result. Also, we'll look at why China's economy may be in trouble, the value of GDP as a statistic, fake business registrations in Colorado, Reddit joining the S&P 500, and the global plastics industry.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Is the consumer engine of the economy starting to slow down?Is China's economy in trouble?Why we still use GDP to measure economic growthGetting weird mail? In Colorado, it could be business fraudPopular online forum Reddit is joining the S&P 500Middle East conflict raises U.S. plastic industry's sinking ship

Consumer spending fell in early August, according to preliminary results from the University of Michigan's survey. July retail sales were down, and the average price of gas is nearing a record high for August. In today's episode, we look at how consumers could be cutting discretionary spending as a result. Also, we'll look at why China's economy may be in trouble, the value of GDP as a statistic, fake business registrations in Colorado, Reddit joining the S&P 500, and the global plastics industry.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Is the consumer engine of the economy starting to slow down?Is China's economy in trouble?Why we still use GDP to measure economic growthGetting weird mail? In Colorado, it could be business fraudPopular online forum Reddit is joining the S&P 500Middle East conflict raises U.S. plastic industry's sinking ship

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4bTEA2m From Charlottesville, host David Bahnsen recaps Monday market action: the Dow fell 273 points (~0.5%), the S&P 500 also about 0.5%, and the Nasdaq about 0.3%, with energy the only positive sector (up ~0.9%) and communication services the worst (down ~1.5%); the 10-year yield ended near 4.73% as the yield curve steepened. He highlights a chart showing AI-driven capital expenditures as an unprecedented share of GDP and discusses risks tied to funding costs. Citing Strategas, he notes steepening periods historically favor energy and financials over tech/communications. On politics, he sees polling and prediction markets suggesting a potential Democratic Senate flip, with Michigan pivotal, though Republicans may have a post–Labor Day spending edge. Economically, July retail sales fell 0.6%, while large tariff refunds may be supporting activity; he also flags housing affordability issues and previews Jackson Hole and upcoming Dividend Cafe content. 00:00 Welcome and Charlottesville 00:44 Market Close Recap 01:36 AI CapEx and GDP 02:59 Yield Curve Steepening 04:38 Senate Polling Outlook 07:36 Retail Sales and Tariff Refunds 09:06 Housing Affordability Chart 10:17 Fed Signals and Jackson Hole 11:39 Oil Prices and Rig Counts 12:26 Upcoming Shows and Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com