Podcasts about gdp

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains why credit markets have held firm amid macro volatility, and the scenarios which could hurt its strong foundation.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today, I will talk about why credit markets have been resilient even as other markets have been volatile – and market implications going forward. It's Tuesday, March 18th, at 11 am in New York. Market sentiment has shifted quickly from post-election euphoria and animal spirits to increasingly growing concern about downside risks to the U.S. economy, driven by ongoing policy uncertainty and a spate of uninspiring soft data. However, signaling from different markets has not been uniform. For example, after reaching an all-time high just a few weeks ago, the S&P 500 index has given up all of its gains since the election and then some. Treasury yields have also yo-yoed, from a 40-basis points selloff to a 60+ basis points rally. Yet in the middle of this volatility in equities and rates, credit markets have barely budged. In other words, credit has been a low beta asset class so far. This resilience which resonates with our long-standing constructive view on credit has strong underpinnings. We had expected that many of the supporting factors from 2024 would continue – such as solid credit fundamentals, strong investor demand driven by elevated overall yields rather than the level of spreads. While we expected the economic growth in 2025 to slow somewhat, to about 2 per cent, we thought that would still be a robust level for credit investors. These expectations have largely played out until recently. While we maintain our overall positive stance on credit, some of the factors contributing to its resilience are changing, calling the persistence of credit's low beta into question. While we did anticipate that sequencing and severity of policy would be key drivers of the economy and markets in 2025, growth constraining policies, especially tariffs, have come in faster and broader than what we had penciled in. Incorporating these policy signals, our U.S. economists have marked down real GDP growth to 1.5 per cent in 2025 and 1.2 per cent in 2026. From a credit perspective, we would highlight that our economists are not calling for a recession. Their growth expectations still leave us in territory we would deem credit friendly, although edging towards the bottom of our comfort zone. On the positive side of the ledger, cooling growth may also temper animal spirits and continue to constrain corporate debt supply, keeping market technicals supportive. Also, while treasury yields have rallied, overall yields are still at levels that sustain demand from yield-motivated buyers. That said, if growth concerns intensify from these levels, with weakness in soft data spreading notably to hard data, the probability of markets assigning above-average recession probabilities will increase. This could challenge credit's low beta, that has prevailed so far, and the credit beta could increase on further drawdowns in risk assets. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Adam Haman joins Bob (yet again) to discuss various topics, but most important: Was Trump right to say that the Biden Administration was funding research on transgender experiments on mice?Mentioned in the Episode and Other Links of Interest:The YouTube version of this conversation.The reason article "debunking" Trump's claim.Bob's InFi episode on GDP calculations and government spending.The HamanNature substack.Help support the Bob Murphy Show.

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore global economic issues, including US-European relations influenced by defense commitments, the impact of Trump's policies, China's Belt and Road Initiative and its exclusion of India, the role of AI in economic growth, government spending's effects on GDP, and briefly discuss Smith's upcoming book, Weeb Economy, and Noah's trip to Japan. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 41,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: https://netsuite.com/102 Found  Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102 AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit https://adquick.com/ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. Incogni Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code ECON102 at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/econ102 – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: Weeb Economy: https://bookplus.nikkei.com/atcl/catalog/25/03/02/01880/ I have written a book!: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/i-have-written-a-book Noahpinion: https://www.noahpinion.blog/  – TAKEAWAYS: U.S.-Europe Relations & Geopolitical Shifts: Examines the U.S. shift away from supporting Europe, debating whether it was exploited or harming its own interests, with Trump's strength-focused foreign policy potentially pivoting toward Russia, risking economic and intelligence ties with Europe. China's Economic Strategy & Globalization: The Belt and Road Initiative has largely failed, with poorly executed projects and unsustainable debt burdens for recipient countries. India's Industrialization & Economic Future: India needs a major shift in labor dynamics, particularly increasing women's participation in factory work. AI, Economic Growth & the O-Ring Theory: AI's impact on economic growth is debated—some expect 10% growth, while Noah sees 5% as more realistic. Japan's Economy & Currency Strength: Japan should push for a new Plaza Accord with the U.S. to strengthen the yen. AI's Impact on Jobs & Productivity: AI is unlikely to eliminate all jobs but will require major adjustments in industries and legal structures.

This week, in Episode 238, Mel Gravely tells Shawn Busse and Jay Goltz that he believes we will eventually find out that the U.S. economy has already slipped into a recession. The funny thing about recessions is that they can start and even end before the GDP numbers make it official, which leads us into a conversation about what businesses can do to prepare for a possible recession. Mel, for example, says his team is checking in on everyone and everything: suppliers, customers, and employees. We also discuss why a lot of pricing models no longer work, why some businesses have never fully recovered from the pandemic, and how Mel turned around a facilities-management business that was losing $1 million a year. Plus: the owners discuss the relative merits of planning to fund your retirement by investing in a 401(k) vs. by selling your business.

Moves by Germany and across Europe to boost defence spending could give a significant uplift to the region's beleaguered chemical industry.-          Need to maintain robust national or regional supply chains may benefit chemical industry in Europe, which is threatened with closures-          German defence/infrastructure spending boost could be 2% of GDP, larger than increase linked to German reunification, post-war Marshall Plan-          Rising defence spending in Europe would help boost electricity demand significantly, estimates vary from 7%-30%-          Data-driven technology for defence would also raise electricity demand-          Will raise demand for gas and renewable-based power-          Europe will need to become more self-sufficient in energy, driven by renewables

Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Cleveland's Amazing Cash Flow Opportunities' on Thursday 3/20. Keith discusses the potential elimination of property tax, highlighting its impact on home affordability, rent stability, population influx, and retiree financial relief. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis supports a constitutional amendment requiring 60% voter approval to abolish property tax.  Hear about the broader economic implications, including the potential for increased sales tax and widened wealth inequality.  GRE Coach, Naresh, analyzes the impact of federal layoffs on the DC housing market, predicting a decline in home values and increased private sector job opportunities. Both emphasize the importance of the BRRRR strategy for real estate investors. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/545 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's a proposal to eliminate the property tax. Is a Washington DC real estate crash upon us, then a terrific guest and I are talking about the future of interest rates in inflation. And finally, an event you won't want to miss all today on get rich education.   Speaker 1  0:23   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:09   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You Keith,   Keith Weinhold  1:25   welcome to GRE from Fort Carson, Colorado to Carson City, Nevada and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are in for another wealth building week at get rich education. I don't like to predict interest rates, because it's really hard to do. But it does get interesting today, because our guest says that he will with his tight read on the economy, this is a unique time, perhaps in my entire life, where we have more new policies shaping the economy and real estate. Then, anytime I can remember, policies are made by politicians, but we don't get into the politics here, rather the policies and how it affects you and her. Any of these policies spicier than this one from earlier this month. Be mindful that this voice is from a person that made his name as a real estate investor.    Donald Trump  2:29   I also  have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland. We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America. We need Greenland for national security and even international security, and we're working with everybody involved to try and get it. But we need it really for international world security. And I think we're going to get it one way or the other. We're going to get it. We will keep you safe. We will make you rich, and together, we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before. It's a very small population, but very, very large piece of land and very, very important.   Keith Weinhold  3:17   Yes, the long time New York City Real Estate Investor there has gone well beyond Gotham now with plans to expand America's real estate empire, if you will.   Is this imperialism or America First policy? Or is it abject comedy? I guess that it could be all three. I'll let you decide. Well, the federal policy shakeups like that, also what they seem to be doing are emboldening others, including at the state level, where Florida, interestingly, recently proposed eliminating the property tax, taking it to zero. What is property tax free? Real Estate coming to you as well. Let's look at the prospects for this and what the effects would be of eliminating the Property Tax with some things that you probably never thought about before, and yes, your mind might shoot ahead. You might anticipate saving 1000s in lost tax dollars every year, even saving over 10,000 bucks a year per single family home in high tax areas. And you know, property taxes, sharpest critics, they say you have got to get rid of this thing, because you basically just endlessly rent your house from the government, and the rent goes up every year, and so therefore it's like forever rent that you have to pay. What's even worse is that the. Amount of property tax you pay is based on your homes or your apartment buildings market value. Well, because the government prints so much money and creates inflation that pumps up all the housing values, many of which are fake, inflated gains, and then your property tax goes up based on this phantom gain. And we've really seen that over the last five years, both real gains and Phantom gains. And then, plus, of course, each full dollar that you earn from your work right now is already taxed, say, down to just 70 cents, is what you've got left over. Well, then your 70 cents is further whittled down by property tax and all the other taxes that you have to pay out of that currently, all 50 states have a property tax every one of them, and you might already know that property taxes, they're basically highest in really two main places. When we look at property tax as a percent of your income. Those places are Texas and the Northeast, where they're upwards of 4% even 5% in fact, it's more than 5% of your income every year that goes to property tax in the state of Maine, but it's 4% or more in a number of states. And of course, if you don't pay them every single year until you die, the government will repossess your home from you. And almost 5 million Americans lose their home every year, many of them to this tax foreclosure. And in the US, the property owner pays the property tax, of course, but effectively, renters do too, because as landlords, we pass it along to tenants. It's embedded in that market rent amount, all right. Well, can we end the property tax? Well, former presidential candidates like Ron Paul and Herman Cain have proposed it. They didn't get elected. Texas has discussed it a lot, but yeah, it's Florida that has newly and boldly proposed eliminating the property tax. And like falling dominoes, if this gets abolished in one state, it increases the chances that more will follow. And Florida is a big state, the third largest in population. Well, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came out and said this, taxing land and property is the more oppressive and ineffective form of taxation. That's what he said. Now let me tell you why he says that before we look at the chances that property tax will be eliminated, DeSantis says it's oppressive, because look see, you can personally dodge your income tax by making your paycheck smaller, although that might not be desirable, you sure could, and you can certainly avoid sales tax by consuming less, but see there is no escape from property tax. That's the oppression that's being referred to here. Let me tell you where we're at with eliminating the property tax, and then what the absolutely Titanic impacts of this would be DeSantis goes on to say, property taxes are local, not state. So we'd need to do a constitutional amendment which requires 60% of voters to approve it, to eliminate them, which DeSantis supports, even to reform or lower them. Right? But he goes on to say this, and here we go. We should put the boldest amendment on the ballot that has a chance of getting that 60% that's the end of the quote. Okay, so that's what it's going to take to eliminate property tax in Florida, where, if it happens, it could be a model for other states to follow, like we're seeing a little bit with the zero income tax states. All right, here's what I think would happen if they were eliminated. First home affordability would massively improve, skyrocketing property values. So many more people could afford the lowered monthly payment without property tax making prices soar, especially the values of lower price to median priced homes. They could really bring those into the affordability range, and they are the exact ones that make the best rental properties. What about rents? If property taxes went to zero, rents would stay stable. Landlords would do little or nothing to drop them. That's just how it works when people are already used to paying a certain price. Also population influx to the affected area. I mean that population influx that already works for states in attracting residents. That have zero state income tax, it would with property tax too. I mean that would clearly be desirable for people to own property tax free homes, especially in the beginning, before this settles in and those home prices soar. Also, retiree financial relief would take place. Those people on fixed incomes would really be helped. But you know what would not happen with governments slashed property tax revenue. They couldn't reduce their spending proportionally. I have no faith that they could. They would have to get their income from elsewhere and see shifting away from property tax over to beefing up your sales tax, that would hurt poor people the most. For example, in Florida's case, it's been studied, and they discovered they would have to increase their sales tax from the current 6% up to 12% to maintain the same services. Can you imagine 12% sales tax, and another effect of abolished property tax is that wealth inequality would widen because the property owners are the ones that benefit the most. So those are the big effects. But look, there are more problems eliminating property tax, that means the areas would need to find another way to pay for schools and roads and parks and local services like police and emergency responders. Maybe some of that stuff could be privatized. But if the tax, if that were just shifted away from local government and that went toward state and federal government, well, then local control would be lost. So that is a really undesirable side effect. But as a real estate investor, come on. The prospect of an abolished property tax that has got to excite you. I wouldn't count on it happening anytime soon, but now you know more about the prospects for it happening and what the impact would be with an elimination of property tax.    coming up soon. Here on the GRE podcast, what the Bible says about money when Pastor John joins us, it's going to be a show unlike any we've ever done before, and maybe will ever do again. You might not be a Christian or religious at all, but this is still relevant to you, because the Bible is the top selling book in the history of the world, and it has an indelible influence on the people around you. The book the Bible, says some things that make you wonder if wealth accumulation is even virtuous. We're gonna face those verses head on and get pastor John's insights there. That's a really anticipated show. I'm also gonna ask him what other religions have to say about money. Also some well known guests down the road here on the show, including the get rich education debut of Laurel Langemeier and more. LAUREL she was known as the millionaire maker since back in the days when a million dollars was actually a lot of money. To be sure that you don't miss these upcoming episodes on your pie catching device, hit the Follow button right now while it's on your mind and you'll be all set. Let's meet with this week's guest.   This week's guest is a familiar one, because he's on Team GRE, yeah, it's an in house chat with our super helpful investment coach. What he does is he helps you devise your big picture real estate strategy all the way down to connecting you with the exact right property addresses. He does that free at GRE marketplace business speaker Jim Rohn said, formal education will make you a living. Self education will make you a fortune. He's got both with an MBA from Duke. Then he worked at both banks and financial publishing companies before landing here at GRE in 2021 but importantly, for years now, he's been an active real estate investor, just like you and I are. Hey, a big welcome back to the show. Naresh Vista,   Naresh Vissa  14:13   hey, thanks for that wonderful, wow, amazing introduction, and thanks for having me back on. It's been a few months.   Keith Weinhold  14:20   Yeah, we haven't heard from you since October here. So what's going on in the real estate and economics world? From your vantage point, everyone's got a different slant on it based on what they see.   Naresh Vissa  14:32   There's a lot happening. As you know, Keith and our listeners, I'm not sure if they're following, but we're seeing tremendous, tremendous changes in the financial markets in general, and the financial markets include the real estate markets, and the impact is going to be widespread for better or for worse, I think, for better over the long haul. So what I'm talking about right now is, for example, interest rates, mortgage rates, home value. Use inflation, those are all very important parts of the economy. And we have this new government department called Doge, the Department of government efficiency. And Doge has gone in. And I loved your newsletter where you talked about Doge a little bit, and the walk that I took, as you called it, the awkward walk with a box full of your stuff or something like that. The sure, because I've been fired before. Yep, yep, it's happened to me once too. I took the awkward walk with the box of of random stuff. Yeah, lots and lots of of layoffs are happening within the government. The private sector continues to lay off people as well, like it usually does, and this is a big deal. The reason why it's a big deal is because aggregate demand. I don't want to say it will be killed, but we're already seeing an impact on home values in places that are very dependent on government workers, places like Washington, DC, Virginia, Maryland, there's actually a 10% year on year decline in home values in those areas. I don't know if you knew about that, Keith, but that's been the impact, and that's based off of the February statistics, the February numbers. So we've seen a decline, and that decline will likely spread to other areas that are dependent on federal workers, or where federal workers make up a good chunk of the local economy. I bring this up because we have providers in Maryland who we work with, who GRE has worked with for three or four years now, and they're seeing somewhat of a decline in the area as well. Because just you don't have to work in DC to be a federal worker. You can work in a major city like Baltimore or in a suburb in between Baltimore and BC. So we're seeing somewhat of a decline in our investors have all of a sudden gotten interested in investment property in the Maryland area because they knew, hey, we know GRE works in the Baltimore operates in the Baltimore area, and just want to scope out some homes. So previously, two years ago, three years ago, when list price was not negotiable. Now all of a sudden, the sellers are open to offers when there was no budging on offers three years ago. So I bring this up because the Department of government efficiency, I believe, to my knowledge, we're up to six figures. More than 100,000 workers have either been laid off or taken the buyout package, so we're somewhere in the six figures of people who got that now, they do have eight months severance. But with that being said, you would think that most humans, they'll immediately start looking for the next job. They're not gonna just enjoy for eight months and then scramble to find that next job. So this is having a widespread impact on housing, home values on it's going to have an impact on interest rates. We're seeing that interest rates are coming down, and if there's any sign, which I don't think there is, but if there's any sign of a recession, if there's any sign of bleeding, then the Fed is going to start cutting interest rates again. So I think we saw peak interest rates a few months ago, those interest rate values, those mortgage rates, aren't going to be going back up anytime soon. We know that almost it's almost a fact that we know that, because the Fed is not going to be raising rates, the most punishing thing they can do is just keep rates steady for a long period of time. But I didn't anticipate that later this year, they're going to start cutting again because of these widespread mass layoffs.   Keith Weinhold  18:32    And of course, Washington, DC is essentially ground zero for these federal layoffs. Federal jobs account for about 25% of DC jobs. You the listener, probably find it to be no surprise that that is the highest in the nation. But of course, this can also affect private companies, those private companies that have federal government contracts as well, and Naresh, before we open it up to the nation, we just think about DC. Do we have any idea of what properties are going to be hurt the most? A lot of times you might think of that in the case of what is the income range of these federal employees that are being laid off now, a lot of them are probationary employees, meaning that they're in their first year of employment.   Naresh Vissa  19:19   Well, it's a huge mix keep. That's a really good question, because I think a broker, like a real estate broker who's trying to sell will try to beef up the price and say, Oh, this doesn't affect us, and this only affects very high income folks. Well, that's the fact of the matter. Is there, if you work for the federal government, you're not necessarily ultra high income or ultra high net worth, you get the perks, and you get perks of working a government civil servant Job while taking somewhat of a lower pay. So it's actually a mix, because you have people in the first two years of employment. So the youngsters. Now, those aren't your homeowners, though, the 2223 24 those. Just say the people in their mid 20s, they're not the homeowners, they're the renters. So you can expect them to leave. They'll probably if they can't find a job, which it's going to be much harder to find a job in that DC area, they may move to Philadelphia or New York or California or wherever they can find a job. They'll just get up and move and move, and that's one of the benefits. I did that when I was in my early and mid 20s, many times where I just packed up and moved. I was more than happy to do it. So they're not your homeowners, but the homeowners are going to be the people who are getting laid off. So there are mass layoffs happening right now, and those people are homeowners, and then the people who are taking the buyout packages very likely, because they're either approaching or at retirement age, and it remains to be seen whether those people it's like a retirement gift, like, Hey, this is a great party. You know, getting eight months of free pay. Like, that's pretty amazing and happy retirement. Or maybe folks were like, they didn't say for retirement all that much, and they were planning to work another 10 years. Those are the people who could be sellers. Bottom line is, when you have this amount of mass layoffs, and we're seeing it in the data, there are more homes for sale today in that DMV area. I By the way, I used to live there. I used to live in in Maryland, great. More homes for sale today than I believe in the lab, definitely over the last five years. And it could be even over the last 15 years, to my knowledge.   Keith Weinhold  21:29   And for those that don't know DMV, that means Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, that area, yep. So   Naresh Vissa  21:34   there are more homes for sale, and the home values actually are now. This is a crazy thing. The home values in on average are back at 2020 levels. So basically, the peak of 2020, is what the home values are at today. And just my prediction. I don't think it takes a genius to predict this, but the layoffs are just getting started. They're just scratching the surface, and they're going to continue, because this Doge is a an 18 month program or an 18 month project. It's supposed to, it was called the Manhattan Project of our time. So they're just scratching the surface. And I'd expect home values in those areas to continue to fall. And you're gonna see it's not immediate. It's not like there are mass layoffs one day and then home values fall the next month. A lot of these effects, we won't start seeing them where the DC area won't start seeing them. 678, months down the road,   Keith Weinhold  22:27   Doge is more than just a meme coin. Now our own in house investment coach, Naresh Vissa and I are talking about the state of real estate today. More we come back, including nuracious thoughts on the future direction of inflation. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold   you know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 6686    Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com   Jim Rickards  24:34   this is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.    Keith Weinhold  24:49   welcome back to get recidiation. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's an in house chat with our own GRE investment coach, Naresh Vissa. He's been talking about the fallout on DC area. Jobs with the regime shakeup that we had in the White House starting earlier this year. And Naresh, I know that you have some thoughts about what this can do to the future direction of inflation. Tell us about it.    Naresh Vissa  25:12   Well, the first thing Keith is, if you look throughout history, or even your lifetime, what we saw from 2021 until today, really, because inflation is going up. I don't want to say it's going back up, but it is going up. We've seen an inflationary cycle that I've never seen in my lifetime. It's worse than any short term inflation cycle that this country has faced, at least in my lifetime. And I was born in the late 80s, let's just say 1990 and moving forward. So I bring that up because this is some pretty bad inflation that the world and that the United States has seen, and we don't need to get into all the details about how it happened or the mistakes that were made at the time when the Fed should have started raising rates, when the government should have stopped spending. That's all history. Moving forward, I'm actually very optimistic now that we've actually reached peak inflation. And when I say peak inflation, I mean during this micro cycle where inflation has gone back up from a 2.4% rate to a 3% rate. I think that's the highest we're going to get during this micro cycle. It did reach some I believe it was above 9% in 2022 yes, we're definitely not going to going to reach that. But 3% is still too high for the Federal Reserve. It's still too high for Americans. It's a major reason why Americans went to the voting boots and or the ballot boxes and made the decisions that they made because of inflation. It's the most important issue on most Americans minds. And I bring this up because I'm very optimistic that we've seen this 3% peak and that we're going to be going down moving forward because of the first half of this interview, the fact that all of a sudden, it is a sudden thing, because a lot of people weren't expecting this, I was, but a lot of people weren't expecting these mass government layoffs. And these mass government layoffs, they hit corporations. They hit private businesses. Anyone with a government contract is going to be hit anyone who was profiting off of waste, fraud, abuse, which you'll be surprised how many private and many times this is legal, like it's legal waste, it's legal abuse, and all of a sudden those checks are going to stop coming in, or the way of doing those business practices are going to stop because the government is clamping down on it. Why? Because it's taxpayer money, and taxpayers are upset. So the pullback or the elimination of waste, fraud, abuse, is definitely a good thing, but also the mass layoffs, we're going to see a decrease in aggregate demand. And when we see a decrease, I'll just say demand. I mean, that's more common, so we'll see a decline in demand. So when there's a decline in demand, what happens? Prices go down, and we're already seeing it. There's already proof of it. I already I brought up the housing market in the DMV area, and I can also tell you oil prices, for example, which is one of the main drivers of inflation, oil and gas energy prices one of the top three drivers, along with government spending. So you got mass layoffs, which will kill a lot of that aggregate demand, you have the oil, gas and energy, and then the reduction in government spending. So all that combined is going to lower inflation, going back to the energy prices, oil is down for really since the inauguration. That trend should continue, given the policy change, and that drives it drives inflation, it drives deflation, it drives pricing, because any good that you need, it's probably going to be transported with the use of energy the microphone you're using, Keith, how was it shipped? Maybe in a truck, and the truck is powered by fuel, or maybe something was sent in an airplane or in an actual ship. All that requires energy and fuel. So if you can lower energy costs, then we're going to see a continued decline in inflation, and energy costs continue to fall, continue to plummet. So I think this is good for inflation. Yes, it is. There is pain. We talked the first entire half of this episode on layoffs. Layoffs are they're painful. Taking that Walk of Shame is painful. There is going to be pain. But at the same time, remember, there are more than 10 million available private sector jobs, and we already have more than a million jobs that are opening up as a result of investment within the United States since January, 20 of this year. We have companies like Apple. We have Taiwan, semiconductor, Eli Lilly, the list goes on and on and on, of major corporations, big corporations, mid sized companies, who are opening up more operations within the United States. So the private sector jobs, which are really the innovative, long lasting jobs, they are growing there is just a tremendous. To opportunity, especially for young people. If I was young again, I wouldn't want to work for the government. I'd want to go work for one of these companies, where they're essentially going to be recruiting and begging youngsters to come work for them   Keith Weinhold  30:12   to corroborate nourishes lower inflation expectations. Since the beginning of the year, we've had a fairly sharp decrease in bond yields now. GRE listeners know by now that mortgage rates somewhat move with Jerome Powell's federal funds rate, but they're more closely tied to bond yields, specifically the yield on the 10 year T note. Okay, so then what makes the 10 year go lower? Hence, mortgage rates along with them, that is lower inflation expectations in a slowing economy. And another reason that bond yields and hence mortgage rates with them, fall, is when people sell stocks and make a flight to safety into bonds, that pushes up bond prices and lowers bond yields. So again, those are two factors that move bond yields and, resultantly, mortgage rates. And that's what has been happening.   Naresh Vissa  31:08   absolutely. And the important thing to remember something you touched on and what I talked about earlier, which is, yes, there is going to be a reduction in federal government and federal government jobs, and I think this is going to pass on to states as well. I think many states, in fact, I know that many states, even blue states, are taking a look at their books and saying, hey, you know what? We should be making cuts too. Because states, they operate on much tighter budgets, whereas the federal government, they basically have access to a printing press. State governments do not so the point that I'm making here is that, yes, it's painful. We're going through some pain right now. The DMV area is going through some pain. The stock market has gone through some pain. The Crypto markets have gone through some pain. Everyone's gone through some pain, but they say no pain, no gain, and the jobs are being transferred, as I brought up earlier, from the government sector to the private sector, and the private sector is where we can see tremendous, tremendous growth. Look at GRE for example, we're a private company, and we've seen tremendous growth, right? Tremendous growth in just innovation and and our services and our offerings. Now, imagine a bigger company that, and how much growth they can have. I think overall, I'm very optimistic and about inflation coming down, hitting that 2% target by the end of this year. In fact, I think it'll hit that 2% target a few months before the end of the year. And once we hit that target, then the Fed is going to start cutting rates again, and there's a chance that they may even start cutting rates before we hit that 2% target. I don't think they should. I thought they made a mistake doing that last year when they started cutting, when inflation hit 2.4% I think or two and a half percent, they started cutting again. I think the inflation rate has to hit actually 2% across the board, and then they can start with their gradual cutting. So if somebody asked today, hey, narration, which many do as, hey, how low do you think interest rates are going to go this year? My answer is not very low. This here, you'd have to have a cataclysmic Black Swan event, which it's called Black Swan because none of us can predict it, none of us can see it. So you'd have to have an event like that for the Fed to just basically slash rates overnight, which I don't see anytime soon. The other most popular question I've gotten this week is, are we going to go into a recession? You know, it seems like the world is falling apart and world war three and and stocks are tanking, and crypto is tanking, and this is tanking and that's tanking. This is when people told me a few weeks ago, actually. And my answer is, No, I don't think we're going to see a recession unless there's a black swan event. But I don't think so. And the reason is because of the tool that the Fed has. The Fed can cut, cut, cut. That's one of the Ben now, if we were at low interest rates, if we were at, let's say, historic low interest rates, and we were in this situation today, I would be very pessimistic and say it's not looking good. But any sign of a recession, the Fed is going to act at their next meeting. They won't even need to call an emergency meeting. They'll act at their next meeting, whenever that may be, they'll act and start cutting rates, and that's going to quickly stimulate the economy and get investors like our folks, because that's going to affect the bond yields, that's going to affect the mortgage rates, and investors are going to jump in to buy real estate, and people are going to jump in to buy discounts in the stock market, et cetera, et cetera.   Keith Weinhold  34:44   To your point, thank goodness the Fed has some ammo. Since the federal funds rate is about 4% they do have some ammo, and they can cut that rate down. You can imagine if the Fed funds rate was zero, like it was a few years ago, and they couldn't make cuts because they don't want to. Make it negative. So Naresh and I here talking about a number of forces that are largely outside your control. So these are the sort of things you can keep your eye on. However, there is something you can do that's very much in your control, and it happens this Thursday, where you can join Naresh and a co host on our upcoming live event. Tell us about it, Naresh.   Naresh Vissa  35:22   well, like you said, it's this Thursday, we're going to be talking about the BRRRR strategy, which has become the most popular real estate investment strategy. GRE has seen in its existence. Our investors are almost hooked onto this burst strategy. We're going to talk more about it on the webinar. Burr stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat, and we'll get into all that in the webinar. It's a great way to build equity in a property very quickly, and to use that equity towards your down payment, so that you're not paying that standard, traditional 20 to 25% down. Some of our investors have done BRRRR's in markets like Tennessee, where they put zero down, or where they even made money on the if you want to call it the flip, so we're going to be talking about them. It's specifically geared towards we've done a burr event before on the Memphis, Tennessee market. This is a burr online event that covers the Cleveland, Ohio market, and that's a market that we have not touched on much here at get rich education, we've promoted some properties here and there. It's a really popular market, and it's a state that is growing and looking if someone were to ask me, Hey, Naresh what's the one state that you think can become the next Florida. And we've covered Florida here before. I live in Florida. Politics aside, Florida has boomed Since 2020. Or so. The number of how you can judge a state's growth is by its GDP numbers. And most importantly, are people moving there? That's the key. Are people moving there? And I would say Ohio is that next state where I think many people in the Midwest are going to say, hey, you know what, I want to go move there, because they're looking to make a lot of changes that are pro growth, that are pro real estate, including potentially eliminating the property tax, school choice programs there. That's huge for kids, universal school choice, and, most importantly, potentially eliminating the income tax now, these are all long term plans. It's not happening anytime soon, but those are the visions and the goals for Ohio, and I think they're going to happen by 2030 I would expect many of these plans and policies to happen. And what that means for real estate is it's going to boom because people are going to move to Ohio because of that, there aren't a lot of states that offer no income tax. So those are my thoughts on Ohio, and we're going to talk a little bit more about that on the webinar.   Keith Weinhold  37:50   Many expect Vivek Ramaswami to be the next governor of Ohio. If that comes true, Vivek has a lot of the same pro business policies that Ron DeSantis does in Florida, for example, Ohio has a high population, a stable population, America's seventh largest population, and a slow growing one with a great diversity of industry there in Ohio and Cleveland.   Naresh Vissa  38:15   So Keith, we have we're approaching record numbers of registrations for this event. We still have room for several more people. So I highly recommend people go to GRE webinars.com. That's GRE webinars.com. You can register for the event. It's going to be fun. All of our webinars recently have been a ton of fun. We've gotten great feedback, a lot of engagement. I think you'll learn a lot for sure. So I'm looking forward to seeing everybody there.    Keith Weinhold  38:42   Your co host, Phil, was on last week's show with us, both you and Phil, we'll be talking about this burr live event in Cleveland. I really suggest you, the listener, attend live. You might get a better Property selection that way, and you'll surely be able to ask questions, and sometimes with the other participants, they ask a really good question that you had not even thought of previously. It's our live burr event for Cleveland cash flow properties. You the listener probably remember when Phil was here last week, we gave an example of where you can get eight to one leverage and up to $500 cash flow on a single family home in Cleveland. I really recommend that you attend, and you'll be hearing more from the race, then you can sign up at GRE webinars.com We'll see if we break that record of, I think, 538 registrants last webinar that we had late last year. Do you have any last thoughts about the event? Naresh,   Naresh Vissa  39:41   like I said, before our events have it's free to attend. That's the first thing. You don't need to pay us anything. But we sell out these events. So I highly recommend that people go once again to GRE webinars.com. We can only hold a certain number of people. It's a few 100 people. So we want to sell out again. We hope you can. Join us and you will not regret I think you're gonna really like the Cleveland market. We're gonna talk more about that, the Ohio market in general. And I think folks are really, really gonna like this strategy. I know a lot of you have invested in Burt, in other markets, or have been researching Burr and you really like what you hear this is the market. I think that you should pay really, really close attention to our team is really strong there. Phil's team, really strong, very honest. They're quick, they're reliable. So if you've had a bad experience doing a burr elsewhere, I think you'll have a better experience with our team over here.    Keith Weinhold  40:35   We'd call it a sellout crowd, but you don't have to pay anything. We'd call it a standing room only crowd, but you don't have to stand up. You can sit down and enjoy it from the comfort of your own home this Thursday at 8pm eastern at GRE webinars.com. Thanks for coming on to the show. Naresh,    Naresh Vissa  40:51   thanks a lot, Keith.   Keith Weinhold  40:57   Yeah, strong insights from our own new race today, inflation expectations cut back and forth like a knife with big policy decisions on layoffs and tariffs and more tariffs on lumber and gypsum board. I mean, they are two of the major inputs that can increase the cost of homes. Gypsum board just means drywall tariffs, slow trade, less fuel is used to ship things like we touched on. And a lot of people ask, well, doesn't an economic slowdown mean lower prices, but yet don't tariffs raise prices? Well, you got to take on that from Naresh today. Now, sometimes I am asked, where is the real opportunity in today's real estate market? I've been a guest on other business shows lately, and I've been asked that question, where's the opportunity in today's real estate market? And I've got two answers. If you have more money and less time. Go with new build properties, because builders are still awarding you with massive rate buy downs, often to near a 5% mortgage rate. They are buying it down for you, but instead, if you have less money and more time, because you have to wait a few months for a rehab, then go with the burr strategy. That is the other opportunity. It's going to give you a higher return than new build in most cases, because what you get is in improbably high leverage along with strong cash flow. And those are two notions that typically don't go together. Well, on Thursday, we're bringing that to you with our live event. I mean, is there a more seasoned pro with the burr strategy in the entire nation than one co host for the event? Phil and then the mind spring of knowledge and ideas from Naresh as the other co host, and they're both active investors themselves, bringing you the opportunity in Cleveland in just a few days. And of the hundreds of registrants, not all of them attend live, but do attend live. If you can give yourself an advantage, you can be connected with available properties conducive to the burr strategy. If you're interested, or maybe you're just more interested in how it all works one last time it is GRE 's live event for Cleveland's amazing cash flow opportunities this coming Thursday, the 20th at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific, healthy real world monthly rents that are more than 1% of the purchase price single family properties, many for under 100k in investor sweet spots. It's free to attend. It's from the comfort of your own home. Registration is still open at GRE webinars.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  44:04   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host, is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  44:28   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours. Myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 668666.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Today's economic data is painting a mixed picture of the consumer, but most of Wall Street remains positive on GDP growth for the year. We'll debate what it means for the Fed's path forward. Plus, Klarna is poaching Walmart from its rival Affirm to become the retailer's exclusive provider of Buy Now Pay Later loans. And the author of “Moneyball” and “The Big Short” joins us in a First on CNBC interview to discuss his new book, “Who is Government?”

Kevin Green joins the Movers show with a preview of this week's trading action. KG looks at the pending retail sales data but also a key international economic report from OECD. The organization cut global expectations for the next 2 years as well as its U.S. GDP growth forecast saying trade tariffs are expected to weigh on economic growth.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

“This might be a negative GDP quarter, but that doesn't mean we'll have a recession,” says Don Luskin. However, he thinks fundamentals for the S&P 500 look “fantastic.” He discusses “Trumponomics” and what the administration's goal could be for “reciprocal tariffs.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's adamant he won't be walking away from trade negotiations with India, even if they prove difficult. Luxon's met with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to explore avenues for deeper bilateral ties and make more headway towards a Free Trade Agreement. Trade negotiations will commence next month. Luxon told Mike Hosking there's sensitivity from the Indian side about dairy, as it makes up about 15% of its GDP. He says the Government wants to do everything it can to advance dairy with India, and that's been a key part of the conversation so far. The Prime Minister's hopeful they'll be able to lock down an FTA by the end of the year. Luxon told Hosking they haven't put a time frame on achieving an agreement, but the two will be moving at pace. He says given some of the work that's already happened and the relationships at the top level, we can expect to make good progress this year. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the resumption of the leaders' meeting among China, Japan and South Korea last year has created momentum for renewed exchanges, Secretary-General of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat Lee Hee-sup said that more high-level interactions are underway, with a foreign ministers' meeting expected to take place in the near future. 中日韩三国领导人会议于去年重启，为新一轮交流注入动力。三国合作秘书处秘书长李熙燮表示，更多高层互动正在进行中，三方外长会议有望于近期举行。 The governments of the three Asian neighbors, with Japan as this year's chair, are maintaining close communication on affairs related to the foreign ministers' meeting as well as a leaders' meeting, and the secretariat is making every effort to ensure the success of the gatherings, Lee told China Daily. 李熙燮向《中国日报》表示，作为今年轮值主席国的日本正与中韩两国政府就外长会议及领导人会议相关事务保持密切沟通，秘书处正全力确保会议成功举办。 After a gap of more than four years, the 9th Trilateral Summit was held in Seoul last year, during which the three leaders agreed to strive to institutionalize trilateral cooperation by holding the trilateral summit and ministerial meetings on a regular basis. 时隔四年多，第九次中日韩领导人会议于去年在首尔举行。三国领导人一致同意通过定期举行领导人会议及部长级会议，推动三方合作机制化。 Since then, various ministerial-level meetings and government mechanisms have been actively operating, and diverse cooperation projects have regained momentum, Lee said. 李熙燮称，此后，三方各类部长级会议和政府机制积极运转，多项合作项目也重拾发展势头。 There are 21 ministerial-level meetings, over 70 intergovernmental mechanisms and more than 100 cooperative projects under trilateral cooperation. 目前，三国合作框架下共有21个部长级会议、70余个政府间机制及100多个合作项目。 "Trilateral cooperation is now at a turning point where it must shift from quantitative growth to qualitative development," Lee said. 李熙燮表示：“三国合作正处于从‘量的增长'转向‘质的提升'的关键转折点。” To achieve this qualitative leap forward with new vision and dynamism, it is crucial to build up momentum and potential for cooperation based on mutual trust, he added. 他补充道，为实现这一质的飞跃，需以新视野和新动能夯实合作基础，在相互信任中积蓄合作势能。 Lee emphasized that chronic differences such as historical issues and territorial disputes, which are difficult to resolve, should be managed prudently rather than rushed for immediate solutions. 李熙燮强调，对于历史问题和领土争端等难以解决的长期分歧，应谨慎管控而非急于求成。 The three countries have been operating bilateral mechanisms and carrying out strategic dialogues to address those differences, he said. 他表示，三国已通过双边机制和战略对话应对这些分歧。 More important, he said that the peoples of the three countries must frequently meet face-to-face to build mutual understanding and trust while expanding areas of cooperation. 更重要的是，三国人民需通过面对面交流增进理解与信任，同时拓展合作领域。 "This requires deepening people-to-people exchanges and advancing cooperation in practical areas closely related to daily life, such as the environment, disaster management, public health and aging populations," he said, adding that these areas are less affected by political factors and are those in which achievements can steadily be made. “这需要深化人文交流，推进环境、灾害管理、公共卫生、人口老龄化等与民生密切相关的务实合作。”他指出，这些领域受政治因素影响较小，且能稳步取得成果。 In addition, by investing more positive energy in soft issues such as youth and cultural exchanges and interregional cooperation, the three countries are enhancing mutual understanding and trust among their peoples while steadily working for tangible outcomes, he said. 他还表示，三国通过加大对青年文化交流、区域合作等“软议题”的投入，既增进民间互信，又稳步推动务实成果。 The three nations agreed in May last year to designate 2025-26 as the China-Japan-South Korea Cultural Exchange Year. 去年5月，三国一致同意将2025至2026年定为“中日韩文化交流年”。 According to Lee, starting with the opening ceremony in April, various trilateral exchange events will be held, including the Culture Cities of East Asia project, the Trilateral Arts Festival and the Trilateral Cultural Content Industry Forum. 李熙燮称，从今年4月的开幕式开始，三国将举办“东亚文化之都”、中日韩艺术节、中日韩文化产业论坛等一系列交流活动。 "Cultural and people-to-people exchanges among China, Japan and South Korea, based on their cultural commonalities, are essential for sustainable peace and common prosperity," he said. 他表示：“中日韩三国基于文化共性开展的人文交流，对实现可持续和平与共同繁荣至关重要。” As the three leaders agreed to maintain discussions on speeding up negotiations for a trilateral free-trade agreement, Lee said the negotiations will not only help identify areas of competition and areas of cooperation, allowing for more efficient collaboration, but also serve as a catalyst for upgrading the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which forms the foundation for the trilateral FTA. 三国领导人同意继续探讨加快中日韩自贸协定谈判。李熙燮指出，该谈判不仅有助于厘清竞争与合作领域、提升协作效率，还将推动作为三国自贸协定基础的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）升级。 China has been the largest trading partner of Japan and South Korea for years, while those two nations have been among the top four trading partners of China. 中国多年来是日韩最大贸易伙伴，日韩则长期位列中国前四大贸易伙伴。 Statistics show that the three countries account for over 20 percent of the world's gross domestic product and over 18 percent of global trade. 统计数据显示，三国GDP总量占全球20%以上，贸易额占全球18%以上。 Lyu Yaodong, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Japanese Studies, said that cooperation among the three countries must be future-oriented, and the common interests of the region should be prioritized. 中国社会科学院日本研究所研究员吕耀东表示，三国合作需立足未来，优先考虑地区共同利益。 This not only contributes to the well-being of the people of the three nations, but also to regional and global peace, stability and prosperity, he said. 他认为，这不仅有利于三国人民福祉，也将为地区乃至全球的和平、稳定与繁荣作出贡献。

VOV1 - Ước tính sẽ có hơn 2,5 triệu tỉ đồng được bơm vào nền kinh tế để hỗ trợ tích cực cho mục tiêu tăng trưởng GDP hơn 8%. Để đạt được mục tiêu tăng trưởng, trách nhiệm sẽ tiếp tục đặt nặng cho chính sách tiền tệ, tín dụng trong năm nay

Canadians are drinking less and consuming more cannabis, we look at the cannabis legacy built by Justin Trudeau, interprovincial cannabis, the cannabis industry support GDP and the Dutch experiment reaches a milestone.  On Cultivar Corner, brought to you by Up In Smoke, we try something from the Wood Nelson Country Club – Mandarin Sunrise.Drinking less and smoking moreTrudeau's SuccessDutch updateWoody Nelson Country Club Mandarin SunriseSuccess In WeedInterprovincial Trade

In this episode, Alex starts by ranting about airports, travel, and his need to get back to Europe soon. Then he reacts to a well-written article by Elliot Cohen in the Atlantic that talks about why invading Canada is a bad idea and has failed in the past. For the rest of the episode, Alex talks about how Spain's economy has been the envy of Europe but that may change as it is being pressured to bolster its military spending towards NATO security. Spain has put the lowest percentage of GDP towards NATO defense spending and there may be growing pains if it plans to bolster its spending. 

This week on TaPod we catch up with one of our favourite Kiwis, Keith Muirhead – Director of Talent Acquisition at Fonterra. We talk about how one of the biggest companies in NZ (responsible for 5% of the national GDP) transitioned from RPO to inhouse, covering all of the BIG transformation challenges, from tech to people and process. It's a great blueprint for change; we learn how to 'make dairy sexy' and we loved our discussion – you will too. Thanks to Avature for your continued support this month. 

Gold finally jumps through US$3,000 an ounce. US consumer confidence about jobs and inflation slumps. New Zealand's GDP data is expected to show growth returned in the December quarter. And the Fed is expected to hold later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga analyses how all the Trump tariff turmoil is affecting global markets and the US economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

This is the final installment of our 5 Non-Negotiables of the Left series where we detail three short-term goals to take back the country and two long-term fights that must be waged for the sake of our democracy and the planet. This fifth entry speaks to the now back-burnered but ever-present threat to life on this planet: Climate change. This is the most difficult case we’ll make to you. We expect pushback and disappointment at first but if we do our job, we’ll shift you to acknowledgement and resolve. This fifth Non-Negotiable isn’t for us. It’s for someone you might know, but more than likely it’s for someone you’ll never meet. We present the establishment of The Climate Trust: Social Security for the Planet. Chapters Intro: 00:00:57 Chapter One: Diet, Exercise and Nuclear Power. 00:01:25 Chapter Two: The Social Cost of Carbon. 00:06:21 Chapter Three: Settling into Reality. 00:10:37 Chapter Four: We’ve Known It All Along. 00:17:55 Non-Negotiable #5: The Climate Trust. 00:26:36 Post Show Musings: 00:30:30 Outro: 01:23:22 Resources IPCC: Summary for Policymakers — Special Report on Climate Change and Land Institute for Policy Integrity: Gauging Economic Consensus on Climate Change The Center for Climate & Security: Chronology of Military and Intelligence Concerns About Climate Change World Economic Forum: This is How Climate Change Could Impact The Global Economy Swiss Re: World economy set to lose up to 18% GDP from climate change if no action taken, reveals Swiss Re Institute's stress-test analysis The New York Times: 40 Million People Rely on the Colorado River. It’s Drying Up Fast. The Black Vault: Global Climate Change Implications for the U.S. Navy Thomas Malthus: On the Principle of Population United Nations: Food Systems Summit United Nations: Secretary-General’s Chair Summary and Statement of Action on the UN Food Systems Summit US EPA: Global Greenhouse Gas Overview Penn State: Plant-Based Diet Rodale Institute: Farming Systems Trial Coller FAIRR Protein Producer Index The EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health Energy Education: Discovery of the greenhouse effect APS: August 1856: Eunice Foote Concludes That Carbon Dioxide Could Warm the Atmosphere, Three Years Before John Tyndall Did DQYDJ: Income Percentile Calculator for the United States Eunice Foote: Circumstances Affecting the Heat of the Sun’s Rays CNA: National Security and the Threat of Climate Change GovInfo: National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 U.S. Department of Defense: Department of Defense 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap Global Monitoring Laboratory: Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) UNIDO: HCFC Phase-Out PBS NewsHour: Antarctic ozone hole believed to be shrinking Book Love James Howard Kunstler: The Long Emergency: Surviving the End of Oil, Climate Change, and Other Converging Catastrophes of the Twenty-First Cent Cass R. Sunstein: Climate Justice: What Rich Nations Owe the World—and the Future Tad Delay: Future of Denial: The Ideologies of Climate Change Nicoletta Batini: The Economics of Sustainable Food: Smart Policies for Health and the Planet Mark Bittman: Animal, Vegetable, Junk: A History of Food, from Sustainable to Suicidal: A Food Science Nutrition History Book Michael T. Klare: All Hell Breaking Loose: The Pentagon's Perspective on Climate Change Lester R. Brown: Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization John Tyndall: Heat Considered as a Mode of Motion William Stanley Jevons: The Coal Question UNFTR Resources Building the Climate Industrial Complex. The Montreal Protocol. Phone A Friend: Tad Delay. A (Mostly) Vegan World. UNFTR Non-Negotiables. -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Check out the UNFTR Pod Love playlist on Spotify: spoti.fi/3yzIlUP. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99. Podcast art description: Image of the US Constitution ripped in the middle revealing white text on a blue background that says, "Unf*cking the Republic."Support the show: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/unftrSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Rendkívül bonyolult makrogazdasági, geopolitikai képpel nézünk szembe, ezért a Checklistben egy rendhagyó adás erejéig hallgatói kérdésekre válaszolt Madár István, a Portfolio vezető makrogazdasági elemzője. A műsorban szó volt jegybanki veszteségről, igazságtalan adórendszerről, argentin reformokról, befektetésekről és persze Trump vámháborújáról is. Főbb részek: Intro - (00:00) Hogy hatnak az ingatlanárak a GDP-re? - (01:02) Hova tűnt az MNB vesztesége? - (03:26) Milyen az igazságos adórendszer? - (09:35) Látszik a makroképen a határmenti vásárlás? - (18:45) Fektetsz magyar papírba? - (22:07) Mibe fektessünk a makrokép alapján? - (23:20) Miért ekkora az USA külkerhiánya? És ez baj? - (29:25) Működnek az argentin reformok? - (35:00) Nőhet az EU-s versenyképesség a háború után? (43:14) Kép forrása: Portfolio/Getty ImagesSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Real estate accounts for 18% GDP and each home sale generates two jobs. It's a top priority for state officials and business leaders across the country to build stable communities. In Minnesota, efforts to address inequity that keeps people locked out of the property market are well-advanced. Lee sits down to interview those directly involved. This special episode comes from “Unlocking the Gates,” a new collaboration from Marketplace and APM Studios. 

Real estate accounts for 18% GDP and each home sale generates two jobs. It's a top priority for state officials and business leaders across the country to build stable communities. In Minnesota, efforts to address inequity that keeps people locked out of the property market are well-advanced. Lee sits down to interview those directly involved. This special episode comes from “Unlocking the Gates,” a new collaboration from Marketplace and APM Studios. 

In this episode, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the current sentiment in the market, contrasting consumer sentiment with investor sentiment amid economic uncertainty. They explore the implications of bearish investor attitudes and the potential for a recession and reflect on the anniversary of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on the economy. The conversation also highlights key economic indicators to watch in the coming week, including retail sales and Fed decisions.Then, Liz Ann speaks with Kevin Gordon about the overall economic landscape, focusing on recession indicators, labor market dynamics, and the recent earnings season. They explore the implications of tariff policies on business confidence and the challenges companies face in providing guidance, given the uncertainty. Kathy and Liz Ann also discuss the data and economic indicators they will be watching in the coming week, including the upcoming FOMC meeting.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresInvestors should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus by calling 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness, or reliability cannot be guaranteed. Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.Options carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Certain requirements must be met to trade options through Schwab. Please read the Options Disclosure Document titled "Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options" before considering any option transaction.Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the opinions presented cannot be viewed as an indicator of future performance.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see schwab.com/indexdefinitions.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.The Economic Policy Uncertainty Index measures newspaper coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty, the number of federal tax code provisions set to expire, and disagreement among economic forecasters.  https://www.policyuncertainty.com/index.htmlISM is the Institute for Supply Management.PMI is the Purchasing Managers Index.(0325-5PME)

The American economy is growing, and, in many ways, it's looking a lot like the 1990s. Upward trends in productivity growth and employment paired with downward trends in inflation are cause for optimism. The question is whether we will maintain this trajectory or be derailed by this emerging era of uncertainty.Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I talk with Skanda Amarnath about trade policy, fiscal and monetary policy, AI advancement, demographic trends, and how all of this bodes for the US economy.Amarnath is the Executive Director of Employ America, a macroeconomic policy research and advocacy organization. He was previously vice president at MKP Capital Management, as well as an analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.In This Episode* The boomy '90s (1:24)* Drivers of growth (7:24)* The boomy '20s? (11:38)* Full employment and the Fed (22:03)* Demographics in the data (25:37)* Policies for productivity (27:55)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. The boomy '90s (1:24)The '90s stand out as a high productivity growth, low inflation, high employment economy, especially if we look at the years 1996 to the year 2000.Pethokoukis: What got me really excited about all the great work that Employ America puts out was one particular report that I think came out late last year called “The Dream of the 90's is Alive in 2024,” and hopefully it's still alive in 2025. By '90s of course you mean the 1990s.Let me start off by asking you: What was so awesome about the 1990s that it is worth writing about a dream of its return?Amarnath: The 1990s — if you're a macroeconomist, at least — had pitch-perfect conditions. Employment was reasonably high, we achieved the highest levels of prime-age employment relative to the population. We had low and declining inflation, and that variable that we use to say, this is the driver of welfare over time, productivity outcomes, the amount of output we can spin up from finite inputs, was also growing at a very strong rate, and one that we haven't really seen replicated since or really in the decades before.The '90s stand out as a high productivity growth, low inflation, high employment economy, especially if we look at the years 1996 to the year 2000. We'd had high productivity maybe even afterwards . . . but that was also a period where a lot of that productivity was gained from the recession. When employment falls really quickly, productivity can go up for illusory reasons, but it's really that '90s sweet spot where everything was kind of moving in the right direction.Obviously, over the last several years, we've seen a lot of those different challenges flare up, whether it was employment during Covid, but then also inflation over the last few years. So . . . a model to build towards, in some ways.Some of us — not me, and I don't think you — remember the very boomy immediate post-war decades. Probably many more of us remember the go-go 1990s. One thing I always find interesting is how gloomy people were in those years right before the takeoff, which is a wonderful contrarian indicator that we had this period [when] we appeared to have won the Cold War but we had a nasty recession early in the decade, kind of a choppy recovery, and there was plenty of gloom that the days of fast growth were over. And just as we sort of reached the nadir in our attitudes, boy, things took off. So maybe that's a good omen for right nowIf we're a contrarian, and if the past can be present, maybe that is a positive indicator to consider. In some ways, it's a bit surprising how much you hear the talk about growth [being] stuck in a very low-growth environment. Over the last two years, we have seen above-trend real GDP growth, above-trend productivity growth. We're going to get some productivity data revisions tomorrow. Again, this measure of productivity is output per hour, so it's basically, to a first approximation, real GDP divided by hours worked. We've seen that the labor market has, largely speaking, held itself up over the last few years, and yet, at the same time, real output has accelerated.So that's at least something that suggests better things are possible. It's a sign that productivity can accelerate, and with the benefit of revisions tomorrow, we are likely to see at least . . . I'd say if you take a fair reading of the pre-pandemic trend on productivity growth, so five to 15 years, maybe you want to include the financial crisis and what happened before, maybe you don't, but you end up with something like 1.4 percent is what we were seeing. 1.4, maybe 1.45, that's a pretty generous view of pre-pandemic productivity growth.I would like to do better than that going forward.I would too. And since 2019 Q4, with the benefit of data revisions, until now, we're likely to see something like 1.9 percent — 50 basis points higher, 0.5 percent higher, we could ideally like to do even better than that. But it's 0.5 percent better over a five-year horizon in which whatever labor market weirdness spanned Covid, we've largely recovered from that. Obviously, there are a lot of different things that have changed between now and five years ago, but at least the data distortion issues should hopefully have been filtered out at this point. And yet, we probably are posting much better real output outcomes.So through a lot of this turbulence, through a lot of the dynamism that's kind of transpired over the last few years, especially in terms of business formation activity, there was a high labor turnover environment in '21 and '22. That churn has come down in more recent quarters, but we have seen better productivity outcomes.Now, can they sustain? There's a lot of things that probably go into that. There are some new potential risks and shocks on the horizon, but at least it tells you better things are possible in a way that if — I'm sure you've had these discussions throughout the previous decade, in the 2010s, when people made a lot of claims about why productivity growth was destined to be stuck, that we were either not innovating enough, or we were not able to capture that into GDP, or else there are just some secular reasons, and so I think it's an instructive moment. If people are actually looking at the data, the last two years, real output and productivity growth has been very impressive, objectively. And it's not just about, “Hey, we're reverting to the pre-pandemic trend and nothing more.” I think there are signs that this is something at least a little different from what an honest forecast pre-pandemic would've suggested.Drivers of growth (7:24)The three-legged stool is one where you want have a labor market that's strong, fixed investment that's growing (ideally faster than usual), and on the third leg it's the set of things that you can do to control really salient costs that everyone's paying.Let's talk about those signs, but first let's take a quick step back. When you look at what drove growth, and productivity growth, specifically, in the '90s, give me the factors that drove growth and then why those factors give us lessons for policymaking today.I think there are three drivers I can point to that are a little bit independent of each other.One is we had — I don't want to say a tight labor market, but especially a fully employed labor market is helpful in so far as, and we see this now over multiple episodes, especially when you're at high levels of prime-age employment, that's typically a point when there's a lot of human capital that's accumulated. People who have been employed for a while, they've been trained up, there's a little more returns to scale, they can scale revenue, they can scale output better. You don't need to add an additional worker to add additional unit of GDP.In the more tangible sense, it's that people are trained up, they have more tangible experience, productive experience. You're able to see output gains without necessarily having to add hours worked. We generally saw over the late ‘90s: Hours worked slowed down, but real GDP growth held up very well.The labor market wasn't contracting by any stretch, it was just, largely speaking, finding an equilibrium in which employment levels were high, job growth was solid if not always spectacular, but we were still seeing that real GDP growth could still be scaled up in a lot of ways. So there is a labor market dynamic to this.There is a fixed investment dynamic. Fixed investment growth is very strong in the late '90s. That was about information processing equipment, IT, software. We did telecommunications deregulation in 1996, which is meant to really expand and accelerate the rollout of things. That became the fiber boom. We saw a lot of construction that went into those sectors, and so we saw it really touch construction, we saw it touch equipment, and we also saw it effect intellectual property.An investment to prevent the millennium bug?There was probably a lot of overinvestment that also was born of some of that deregulation, but at least in terms of it adding to our welfare, making it easier for us to use the internet and the long-term benefits of that, a lot of that was built in the late '90s. You could probably point to some stuff in policy, obviously interacting with technology that was very favorable.The third thing I would say is also probably underrated is inflation fell over that whole period. While some of that inflation falling would've been some fortuitous dynamics, especially in the late '90s around food and energy prices falling, the Asian financial crisis, there were also things that were very important for creating space for the consumer to spend more. Things like HMOs. Healthcare inflation really fell throughout the '90s.Now, HMOs became more unpopular for a lot of reasons. These health management organizations were meant to control costs and did a pretty good job of it. This is something that Janet Yellen actually wrote about a long time ago, talking about the '90s and how the healthcare dynamic was very underrated. In the 2000s, healthcare inflation really picked up again and a lot of the cost-control measures in the private sector were less effective, but you could see evidence that that was also creating space in terms of price stability, the ability for the consumer to spend more on other types of goods and services. That also allows for both more demand to be available but also for it to be supplied.I think with all these stories there's a demand- and a supply-side aspect to them. I think you kind of need both for it to be successful. The three-legged stool is one where you want have a labor market that's strong, fixed investment that's growing (ideally faster than usual), and on the third leg it's the set of things that you can do to control really salient costs that everyone's paying. Like healthcare, obviously there's a lot of cost bloat, and thinking about ways to really curb expenditure without curbing quality or real consumption itself, but there's obviously a lot of room for reforms in that area.The boomy '20s? (11:38)Right now, you have still an increasing number of people who have had meaningful work experience over the last one, two, three, years. That human capital should accumulate and be more relevant for GDP growth going forward . . .So you've identified what, in your view, is a very successful mix of these very critical factors. So if you want to be bullish about the rest of this decade, which of those factors — maybe all of them — are at play right now? Or maybe none of them!Right now, the labor market is still holding up rather well. While we may not be seeing quite the level of labor market dynamism we saw earlier in this expansion, at the same time, that was also a period of great turbulence and high inflation. Right now, you have still an increasing number of people who have had meaningful work experience over the last one, two, three, years. That human capital should accumulate and be more relevant for GDP growth going forward, assuming we don't have a recession in the next year or two or whatever.If we do, I think it obviously would mean a lot of people are probably likely to not be as employed, and if that's the case, their marketable and productive skills may atrophy and depreciate. That's the risk there, but, all things considered, right now, non-farm payroll growth has been roughly speaking 160,000 per month. Employment rates adjusted for demographics are a little higher than they were before the pandemic. It's pretty historically high. That's not a bad outcome to start with and those initial conditions should hopefully bode well for the labor market's contribution to productivity growth.The challenge is in terms of real GDP growth. It's also a function of a lot of other factors: What are we going to see in terms of cost stability? I would generally say there's obviously a lot of turbulence right now, but what's going to happen to a lot of these key costs? On one hand, commodity prices should hopefully be stable, there's a lot of signs of, let's say, OPEC increasing production.On the other hand, we have also things about tariffs that are pretty significant threats on the table and I think you could also be equally concerned about how much this could matter. We've already had a bigger run-through of this with a lot of this supply chain turbulence, pandemic error stimulus, and how that stuff interacted. That was quite turbulent. Even if tariffs aren't quite as turbulent as that, it could still be something that detracted from productivity growth.We saw, actually, in the first two quarters of 2022 when inflation exploded, there were a compounding number of shocks on the supply side with the demand side that it did have a depressing effect on productivity in the short run. And so you can think if we see things on the cost side blow out, it will also restrict output. If you have to mark up the price of a lot of things to reflect different costs and risks, it's going to have some output-throttling effect, and a productivity-throttling effect. That's one side of things to be concerned about.And then the other side of it, in terms of fixed investment, I think there's a lot of reasons for optimism on fixed investment. If we just took the start of the year, there's clearly a lot of investment tied to the artificial intelligence boom: Data centers, all of the expenditures on software that should change, expenditures on hardware that should be upgraded, and there's a whole set of industrial infrastructure that's also tied to this where you should see capital deepening really emerge. You should see that there should be more room to scale up in capital formation relative to labor. You can probably point to some pockets of it right now, but it hadn't shown up in the GDP data yet. That was the optimistic case coming into this year and I think it's still there. The challenge is there's now other headwinds.The tariffs make me less optimistic. I really worry about the uncertainty freezing business investment and hiring, for that matter.I share your sentiment there. I think we learned in 2018 and -19, there were tariffs being implemented but on much smaller scale and scope, and even those had a pretty meaningful or identifiable impact on the manufacturing sector, leave aside even the other sectors that use manufactured inputs from imports or otherwise. So these are going to be likely headwinds if you're any kind of company that exports at any point in time to something across borders, you have to now incorporate higher costs, more uncertainty. We don't know how long this is supposed to stick. Are you supposed to assume this is going to be a transition period, as Treasury Secretary Bessent said, or is this something that is just like a little negotiation tactic, you get a win and then we move on?I don't think anyone's quite sure how this is supposed to play out and I worry both for the manufacturing sector itself because, contrary to the popular conception of it, we still export a lot of things. We still export, and the most competitive industries are exporting industries, and so that's a concern for whether you're a manufacturing construction machinery, you're Caterpillar, or if you're agricultural machinery and you're John Deere, you have to start to think about this stuff more and the risk that's attached to it. The hurdle rates to investment go up, not down.And on the other side of the ledger then we have, or at least in terms of the sectors that use manufactured inputs. Transformers are really important for building out the energy infrastructure if we're going to have load growth that's driven by AI or whatever else, we're kind of entering more uncertainty on that side as well, and not really clear what the full strategy is. It strikes me as going to be very challenging.And then on the monetary policy [side], and this is the difference, you had in the '90s a Federal Reserve which seems to have defeated the Great Inflation Monster of the 1970s while the Fed today is battling inflation.What do you make of that as far as setting the stage for a productivity boom, a Fed which is quite active and still quite concerned about that inflation surge and perhaps tariffs further playing into it going forward?I think the Fed's stuck in a hard spot here. If you think about a trade shock as likely being some mix of — well, it could be output throttling. Maybe the output throttling and the effects in the labor market are more outsized than the inflation effects? That was what we saw in 2018 and 19, but it's not a given that that's going to be the case this time. The scale of the threats are much bigger and much wider, and especially coming through a period now where there's higher inflation, maybe there's more willingness to raise prices in response to these shocks. So these things are a little different.The Fed has basically said, “We don't know exactly how this is going to play out and we're going to need to watch the data, keep an open mind, be pretty risk-averse about how we're going to adjust interest rate policy.” We've seen evidence of inflation expectations going up. That will not give the Fed a lot of confidence about cutting interest rates in the absence of other things getting worse. What the Fed's supposed to do in response to supply shock is almost a philosophical question because you obviously don't want to break things if there's really just a supply shock that is a one-off that you can see through, but if it starts to have longer term consequences, create bigger pain points in terms of inflation, it's just a tough spot.When I try to square the circle here — and this will be no surprise to the listeners — I can't help but thinking, boy, it would be really fantastic if all the most techno-optimist dreams about AI came true, and this is not just an important technology, but an unbelievably important technology that diffuses through the economy in record time. That would be a wonderful factor to add into that mix.If there are ways for that to be a bigger tailwind — and there could be, I wouldn't be too pessimistic about how that could filter through even the GDP data amidst a lot of these trade policy headwinds, we're expected to see a lot grand buildout of data centers, for example. There's an energy infrastructure layer to that.But even beyond the investment side, actually being used, improving total factor productivity. Super hard to predict, and no one wants to do a budget forecast under the assumption we're going to be doubling a productivity growth, but it would be nice to have.Sure would. I will say about one of the things on the inflation side, especially with the Fed, we've come through a period now where the Fed has kept restrictive interest rate policies, but only more recently have we seen a little bit more of that show up in financial markets, for example. So the stock market over the last two years has ran up quite a bit, historically, and only now we've seen some signs of maybe some pricing of risk and some of the issues around the Fed.Inflation data itself coming into this year, relative to the Fed's target on the Fed's gauges, it was right now about 2.6, 2.7 percent. Most of that reflects a lot of lags of the past, I would say. If you look through the details, you see a lot of it in how inflation is measured for housing rent. How inflation is measured for financial services really tracks the stock market, and then there's obviously some other idiosyncratic stuff around where they're using wages as the measure of prices in PCE, which is the Fed's inflation gauge. If you take that stuff out, we still have a little bit of inflation work to do in terms of getting inflation down, but it would sound pretty manageable. If I told you, actually, if you take away those lags, you probably get some only 2.2 percent, that seems like we're almost there.Let's take away a little more, then we get to two percent. We can just keep cutting things outAnd there would probably be conditions for a lot. But if we can give the benefit of the time and do no harm, there's probably a positive story to be told. The challenge is, we may not be doing no harm here. There may be new things that rear up, to your point. If you start just deducting stuff just because you think it lags, but you don't think about forward-looking risks, which there are, then you start to get into a more challenged view of how things improve on the inflation side.I think that's a big dilemma for the Fed, which is, they have to be forward-looking. They can't just say, well, this stuff is lagging, we can ignore it. That doesn't cash when you have forward-looking risks, but if we do see that maybe some of these trade policy risks go away, if there's a change of heart, a change of mind, I think you can possibly tell yourself a more positive story about how maybe interest rates can come down a bit more and financial conditions can be more supportive of investment over time. So I think that that is the optimistic case there.Full employment and the Fed (22:03)Taking people away from their job and then trying to just bring them back in several years later, don't expect the productivity dividends to be quite the same.For someone who cares about full employment, how would you rate the Fed's performance after the global financial crisis? Too tight?It was too tight and also it was an environment in which the Fed, at various points from 2010, maybe 2009, through to 2015, they were very eager to try and get interest rates up before the economy was giving their hard signal that it was time to raise interest rates. Inflation hadn't really reared its head, nor had we seen evidence of really strong labor markets. We were seeing a recovery that was very gentle, and slow, and maybe we were slowly getting out of it, but it was a slow grind. GDP growth was not particularly stellar over that period. That's pretty disappointing, right? We don't want do that again. Obviously, there are things like maybe fiscal policy could have been done differently, as well as monetary policy on some level, but I think the Fed was very eager to get off of zero to the point where they weren't looking at the data, just didn't like the fact they were at zero.Coming out of it, now it's like that recovery is a lot of wasted output. We lost a lot of output out of that. We lost a lot of employment out of that. It's kind of just a big economic waste. Obviously, this past recovery has been very different and Covid was a different type of shock relative to the global financial crisis.The thing that worries me is actually, when we start to look at the global financial crisis and we look at, say, even the recession from the dot com boom, or even the recession, to your point, in the early '90s, prime-age employment rates took a long time to recover and it's not ideal from a productivity perspective that you want to have people out of the labor force for long periods of time, people out of employment for an extended number of years —Also not good for social cohesion.The social fabric, yeah. There's a lot of stuff it's not great for. We don't want hysteresis of that kind. We don't want to have people who are, “Oh, because I lost my job, I'm not going to be able to get a new job in the foreseeable future.” A lot of skills, general intangible knowledge, that's kind of part of how people become more productive and how firms become more productive. You want that stuff to keep going on some level. That's also probably why even Covid was very turbulent. It's a lot of things that we kind of have in motion, we just switched it off and then switched it back on. Even that over a short horizon can be very disruptive. There was a reason, on some level, to do it, but it is also something to learn from: Taking people away from their job and then trying to just bring them back in several years later, don't expect the productivity dividends to be quite the same.So I look at those three recessions at least to say, if we're going to have slow recoveries out of those, it's going to cause problems. So it's a balance of Fed and fiscal policy, I'd say, because there are certain things — there was a 2001, -2, -3, there were attempts to lower taxes at the same time. That actually may have been the key catalyst, more so than the Fed cutting rates, but when you think about how the Fed is sometimes antsy to get off of low rates when the economy is depressed, that's not great. Right now the Fed has a very different set of trade-offs. Thankfully, on some level, for full employment especially, [we're] not in that world, we're now more trying to defend full employment, protect full employment, ideally not have a recession now, would be great.Demographics in the data (25:37)When you see how population growth has a twofold dynamic, we typically see in periods of high population growth are the periods also where you tend to see both strong investment but also inflation risk.I would love to avoid that. That's the last thing we need.I have two questions: One, how much do demographics, and there's been a lot of talk about falling fertility rates, is that something you think about much?I think demographics play a lot of tricks on the data itself. When you see how population growth has a twofold dynamic, we typically see in periods of high population growth are the periods also where you tend to see both strong investment but also inflation risk. Obviously, when you know that there's a bigger base of people who you can sell your goods and services to, you might be more inclined to go forward with a longer-dated investment with some confidence that there will be growth to validate it. On the other hand, it's also because there's more spending that's happening in the economy, that's higher growth, there might be more inflation risk.I think that those background conditions then filter in various ways. You can kind of see how Japan and Europe have, generally speaking, at least maybe prior to this pandemic-era episode of inflation, are seeing lower inflation rates, lower growth rates, though, too. So lower real growth, lower inflation, real per capita outcomes are always hard to square in terms of Japan's population is declining, but also Japan's real GDP, is it declining as much more or less? These things are very hard to identify going forward.I think it's going to just muddy a lot of different math as far as what counts as strong investment. We've gotten used to a world of non-farm payroll growth every month in the job report. If it's like 150,000 to 200,000, that's pretty solid and great. Do we need to change our expectations to it being a 100,000 is good enough because we're not actually expanding the working age population as much? Those things are going to have an effect on the macroeconomic data and how we evaluate it in real time. Even just this year, because for some people's assessments of what counts as strong payroll growth, there was a sense that payroll employment was strong in '23 and '24 because of immigration. I'm a little bit more skeptical than most of those claims, but if it's true, which I think it's still possibly true, that it's then the case right now if we do see less immigration, is that the breakeven, the place where what counts as healthy employment growth might be a lot lower because of it.Policies for productivity (27:55)Healthcare cost growth and managing it will be important both in terms of what people see in the budgetary outcomes, but also inflation outcomes.My last question for you, I'll give you a choice of what to answer. If you were to recommend a pro-productivity piece of public policy, either give me your favorite one or the least-obvious one that you would recommend.Right now, I'd say the things that worry the most in productivity, and it's on the table, is the trade policy. This stuff has adverse impacts on prices and investment, and it may have impacts on employment, too, over time, if they stick. We're talking about really high, sizable numbers here, in terms of what's threatened now. Maybe it's all bark and no bite, but I would say this is what's on the table right now. I don't know what else is on the table at the very moment, but I'd say that's a place where you have to wonder what's the merits of any of this stuff, and I think I'm not seeing it.I am more intellectually flexible than most about where sometimes some very specific, targeted, narrow trade barriers have a lot of sense in them, either because solving a particular externalities, over-capacity kind of problem that might exist. There are some intellectualized reasons you can offer if it's narrow and targeted. If you're doing stuff at a really broad-based level, the way it's currently being evaluated, then I have to ask, what are we doing here? I am not sure this is good for investment, and investment is also part of how we are able to unlock a lot of general corporate technologies, able to actually see total factor productivity growth and increase over time. So I worry about that. That's top of mind.Things that are kind of underrated that I think is really important over time, that'll probably be also important, both for people who are thinking about efficiency, thinking about where there's room for public policy to support productivity growth, I'd say healthcare is a really prominent place right now. Healthcare cost growth and managing it will be important both in terms of what people see in the budgetary outcomes, but also inflation outcomes. There's just a lot of expenditures there where there's not a lot of incentive for rationalization that needs to be brought. And there's a way to do it equitably. There's a lot of low-hanging fruit out there in terms of ways we can reform the healthcare system. Site neutral payments, being one easy example to point to.The federal government itself and private insurers, both of them, though, in terms of paying for healthcare, how they pay for healthcare and actually ensure cost control in that process, if we're able to do that well, I think the space for productivity is pretty underrated and could be quite sizable. That's also, I'd say, an underrated reason why the 2000s became far less productive. Healthcare services inflation, healthcare cost growth really exploded over that period, and we did not get a good handle on it, and we kind exited the '90s productivity boom phase. It was more obvious towards the latter half of the 2000s as a result.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were PromisedMicro ReadsFaster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe

Stocks gain with sentiment lifted after a strong Chinese session overnight and after the recent market turmoil.USD mixed vs. peers, GBP soft post-GDP, JPY weighed on by Rengo data, which showed average wage hike less than demands.Gilts gap higher on soft growth data while JGBs lift on Rengo.Spot gold makes a fresh record high above USD 3,000/oz; crude oil and base metals benefit from the risk tone.Looking ahead, US UoM Survey, Trump executive orders, Fitch to review France; US Government Funding Expires.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In this episode, We break down the key highlights of the 2025 Government Work Report, including the GDP growth target, industry priorities, and measures to boost domestic consumption and foreign investment. We also explore China's commitment to the Global South and the evolving landscape of China-Africa cooperation.

By almost every economic indicator, President Trump inherited a robust economy when he took office in January. The stock market was at record levels, inflation was at 4% and the adjusted GDP for 2024 a solid 2.8%.And nearly every major economic forecast had those numbers continuing in 2025.But President Trump's policies — the on-again, off-again tariffs and the promise of the Department of Government Efficiency to cut a trillion dollars from federal agencies — have caused much uncertainty for consumers and volatility in the markets. There's also the concern across multiple industries if Trump goes through with the promise of mass deportations of undocumented workers.Because of those policies, some economic forecasters have said the U.S. could already be entering a recession. Trump acknowledged last week the tariffs will cause “a little disturbance” in the economy and declined to rule out a recession.The Federal Reserve's forecast of gross domestic product predicts the U.S. economy may actually contract this quarter. That hasn't happened since 2022.At the state level, the Indiana legislature is working on its two-year budget with property tax reform a major priority. While that may provide some relief for individual home owners, local governments and public schools are raising red flags about what the lost revenue will mean to them.The state also has to make up for a billion-dollar shortfall last year in Medicaid.

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing discusses what the latest signals from the US economy say about recession risk. He talks about what the coming week's retail sales data might say, and how they might swing the debate around a downturn. Neil also previews the coming week's Fed decision, a haul of start-of-the-year China data and explains why talk of increased defence spending won't mean an automatic boost for economies.Also on the show, Senior Global Economist Ariane Curtis talks about why we don't think Donald Trump's policy agenda will have an impact on the global economy over the long term. She talks about how the ranking of the top 10 biggest economies could change between now and 2050 and which are set to benefit most from the rollout of AI. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: Drop-In - The Fed, ECB and Bank of England March meetingshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-fed-ecb-and-bank-england-march-meetingsData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyRead: Will defence spending turbocharge economic growth?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/will-defence-spending-turbocharge-economic-growthDrop-In: Is US equities exceptionalism dead?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-us-equities-exceptionalism-deadRead: Global megatrends will outweigh Trump disruptionhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/long-run-economic-outlook/global-megatrends-will-outweigh-trump-disruption

“In terms of the big three numbers – employment, inflation, and GDP growth – our baseline forecast is optimistic,” says Matt Wolf of RSM in this economic outlook discussion with host Greg Hawver. Matt points to a 4.2% unemployment rate, two-and-a-half point inflation, and 2.5% GDP growth. But he also observes that the uncertainty of tariffs is creating “paralysis” among operators and some investors. “There's just too many variables right now to try to game out any sort of meaningful investment,” he suggests.Connect and Learn More☑️ Matt Wolf | LinkedIn☑️ RSM | LinkedIn | Facebook | Instagram | X | YouTube☑️ McGuireWoods | LinkedIn | Facebook | Instagram | X☑️ Subscribe Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicThis podcast was recorded and is being made available by McGuireWoods for informational purposes only. By accessing this podcast, you acknowledge that McGuireWoods makes no warranty, guarantee, or representation as to the accuracy or sufficiency of the information featured in the podcast. The views, information, or opinions expressed during this podcast series are solely those of the individuals involved and do not necessarily reflect those of McGuireWoods. This podcast should not be used as a substitute for competent legal advice from a licensed professional attorney in your state and should not be construed as an offer to make or consider any investment or course of action.

The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen sharply in the last few weeks, thanks largely to tariff flip-flopping and overall economic uncertainty. Typically, significant sustained changes in a currency’s value indicate the relative strength of a nation’s economy. Should we be worried? Also: New tariffs triggered a January import rush that will ding GDP, student loan borrowers are temporarily blocked from income-driven repayment plans and Amazon pulls back on its brick-and-mortar grocery biz.

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya discusses the early indications of India's economic recovery and why the country looks best-positioned in the region for growth.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Today I'll be taking a look at the Indian economy amidst escalating trade tensions in Asia and around the globe. It's Thursday, March 13, at 2pm in Hong Kong.Over the last few months, investors have been skeptical about India's growth narrative. Investors – like us – have been caught off-guard by the surprising recent slowdown in India's growth. With the benefit of hindsight, we can very clearly attribute the slowdown to an unexpected double tightening of fiscal and monetary policy. But India seems to be on its way to recovery. Green shoots are already emerging in recent data. And we believe the recovery will continue to firm up over the coming months. What makes us so confident in our outlook for India? We see several key factors behind this trend: First, fiscal policy's turning supportive for growth again. The government has been ramping up capital expenditure for infrastructure projects like roads and railways, with growth accelerating markedly in recent months. They have also cut income tax for households which will be effective from April 2025. Second, monetary policy easing across rates, liquidity, and the regulatory front. With CPI inflation recently printing at just 3.6 per cent which is below target, we believe the central bank will continue to pursue easy monetary policy. And third, moderation in food inflation will mean real household incomes will be lifted. Finally, the strength in services exports. Services exports include IT services, and increasingly business services. In fact, post-COVID India's had very strong growth in business services exports. And the key reason for that is, post-COVID, I think businesses have come to realize that if you can work from home, you can work from Bangalore. India's services exports have nearly doubled since December 2020, outpacing the 40 per cent rise in goods exports over the same period. This has resulted in services exports reaching $410 billion on an annualized basis in January, almost equal to the $430 billion of goods exports. Moreover, India continues to gain market share in services exports, which now account for 4.5 per cent of the global total, up from 4 per cent in 2020. To be sure there are some risks. India does face reciprocal tariff risks due to its large trade surplus with the US and high tariff rates that India imposes select imports from the U.S. But we believe that by September-October this year, India can reach a trade deal with the U.S. In any case, India's goods exports-to-GDP ratio is the lowest in the region. And even if global trade slows down due to tariff uncertainties, India's economy won't be as severely affected. In fact, it could potentially outperform the other economies in the region.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen sharply in the last few weeks, thanks largely to tariff flip-flopping and overall economic uncertainty. Typically, significant sustained changes in a currency’s value indicate the relative strength of a nation’s economy. Should we be worried? Also: New tariffs triggered a January import rush that will ding GDP, student loan borrowers are temporarily blocked from income-driven repayment plans and Amazon pulls back on its brick-and-mortar grocery biz.

Chris Zhang, Partner and CIO of Ascend Interplay (Interplay's multi-family office), returns to the pod to provide an in-depth analysis of China's economic landscape in 2025, offering insights beyond mainstream media narratives. We discuss the current state of China's economy, examining key indicators such as GDP growth, industrial production, and trade activity. At the same time, Chris highlights major concerns, including deflation, a struggling housing market, and long-term demographic challenges, while also shedding light on the country's transition from a manufacturing-driven economy to a service-oriented one.We then dive into the geopolitical dynamics between the U.S. and China. In addition to discussing the tariffs, we compare today's economic competition to the Cold War era, and how shifting alliances - particularly in Europe and the Middle East - are reshaping global power structures.We also cover China's technological advancements, particularly in AI and EV manufacturing, where it continues to challenge U.S. dominance. Chris analyzes the impact of U.S. tariffs, supply chain shifts, and investment flows, emphasizing how China remains a key player in the global economy despite short-term volatility.We wrap up with Chris's firsthand insights from his recent trip to Beijing and Zhengzhou, where he observes China's strong consumer activity despite ongoing real estate struggles. The episode concludes with a deep dive into China's investment landscape, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and the nation's long-term trajectory—offering critical perspectives on how it will continue to shape global trade and economic power structures.Links:Book: The Fundraising RulesInterplay: Website, LinkedIn, TwitterMPD: LinkedIn, Twitter

In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Ziegler is joined by Lindsey Bell, Chief Market Strategist of Clearnomics, and Shannon Saccocia, Chief Investment Officer of Wealth at Neuberger Berman. They dive deep into the current market volatility and economic uncertainties facing investors. From tariff concerns to shifting consumer behaviors, they provide valuable insights on navigating these challenging times while maintaining a long-term investment perspective.Key topics discussed:• Tariffs and Market Uncertainty: How ongoing tariff discussions are creating business uncertainty, affecting pricing decisions, and potentially impacting economic growth• Consumer Resilience: Analysis of consumer spending patterns, the importance of employment stability, and how different consumer segments are responding to economic pressures• GDP Growth Projections: Examination of current GDP forecasts, including the Atlanta Fed's concerning Q1 projections, and why these numbers might be overly pessimistic• Federal Reserve Strategy: Discussion on potential interest rate cuts for 2025, how the Fed is balancing inflation concerns with economic growth, and the challenges of monetary policy during tariff implementation• Market Broadening: Insights on investment rotation beyond the Magnificent 7 tech stocks into sectors like healthcare, financials, and consumer discretionary• International Investment Opportunities: Why investors should consider international exposure, particularly in European markets and potentially emerging markets including China

US equity futures are lower after a strong close on Wednesday. European markets opened weaker, while Asia equities are tilting lower. Markets remain cautious as trade tensions escalate following Trump's overnight imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, prompting swift retaliation from Canada and the EU. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end S&P 500 price target after recently lowering its 2025 GDP forecast. The US CPI report came in softer than expected, with both headline and core inflation below forecasts. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 basis points, marking its seventh consecutive cut. In geopolitical developments, Ukraine has signaled willingness to accept a 30-day ceasefire proposal now under review by Moscow.Companies Mentioned: Amazon, NRG Energy, Sunnova Energy

Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist at the Investment Company Institute, says that consumers currently expect that they will wind up paying about half of the costs added to goods by tariffs — meaning they will pay 10 percent more when an item is facing a 20 percent tariff — and she says that a cutback in consumer spending would dramatically change the economic picture, since it makes up about two-thirds of GDP. Along with declining consumer sentiment, Antoniewicz says that investors are reacting to current market performance and heading toward money-market and bond funds, waiting before they are willing to buy into the dips. Speaking of concerned and conservative investors, Todd Rosenbluth — head of research at VettaFi — picks an ultra-short and ultra-safe bond fund as his "ETF of the Week," and Chuck recounts three conversations this week with friends who are dealing with the market differently as they struggle to find some peace of mind amid current concerns. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that Americans can agree on something, namely that tipping is wildly out of control.

FAN MAIL--We would love YOUR feedback--Send us a Text MessageThe American economy is running like a race car at half speed, averaging just 1.8% GDP growth over the past two decades when it should be soaring at 3% or higher. This sluggish performance isn't inevitable – it's the result of specific policy choices that have weighed down our economic engine.Using a powerful race car analogy, we explore how tax cuts function as essential engine maintenance for the economy, while excessive government spending adds unnecessary weight that drags down performance. The current initiatives to trim bureaucratic waste through the Department of Government Efficiency represent steps in the right direction, but decades of congressional neglect in oversight responsibilities have allowed inefficiencies to multiply unchecked.Monetary policy plays a crucial role as the fuel for our economic engine. We examine Steve Forbes' compelling argument for returning to the gold standard in his book "Inflation" – a policy that historically coincided with America's greatest periods of prosperity and near-full employment. During the late 1800s under the classical gold standard, more wealth was created than in all previous centuries combined. Similarly, both the 1920s and 1960s saw unemployment rates below 5% when the dollar was pegged to gold. While the political will for such a fundamental reform seems absent today, the historical evidence suggests we should at least aim to keep inflation consistently below 3%.As we approach America's 250th anniversary in 2026, we have a unique opportunity to implement policies that will restore robust economic growth. By properly maintaining our economic engine through tax cuts, providing clean fuel through sound monetary policy, and removing excess weight through spending discipline, we can get America's race car humming at full capacity again – creating opportunity and advancement for all Americans. What policies do you think would best accelerate our economic growth?Key Points from the Episode:• Tax cuts are essential to fix the economic engine and bring investment back to America• Excessive government spending acts as dead weight on the economy, requiring immediate reduction• Agencies often stonewall congressional oversight, perpetuating waste and inefficiency• Steve Forbes advocates returning to the gold standard to eliminate inflation and stabilize currency• During gold standard periods, America experienced robust growth and near-full employment• Whipping inflation requires supply-side solutions rather than just interest rate manipulation• The US needs consistent 3%+ GDP growth annually, not the 1.8% average of the past two decades• Tariffs and trade policy are like tires - important but not the first priority for economic repair• The Federal Reserve's fuel quality (monetary policy) needs significant improvementBe sure to check out our show page at teammojoacademy.com, where you'll find everything discussed in this podcast as well as other great resources.Other resources: Want to leave a review? Click here, and if we earned a five-star review from you **high five and knuckle bumps**, we appreciate it greatly, thank you so much!Because we care what you think about what we think and our website, please email David@teammojoacademy.com.

AI adoption in Ireland has surged to 91%, nearly doubling from 49% in 2024, a significant leap that now puts Ireland ahead of many of its EU counterparts after previously trailing behind. Drawing on insights from 300 senior leaders across the island of Ireland, the AI Economy in Ireland 2025 report produced by Trinity College Dublin in collaboration with Microsoft Ireland, provides a comprehensive view of the current rate of AI adoption. The report reveals AI's potential to contribute at least €250 billion to Ireland's GDP by 2035 . However, this could increase by a further €60bn depending on how businesses, government, and industry leaders harness AI's capabilities and implement policies that foster responsible innovation. The report provides an index comparing adoption rates from our 2024 findings, highlighting the acceleration of AI integration, along with insights into the evolving opportunities and challenges for AI advancement in Ireland. The report highlights AI's projected economic contribution to Ireland: AI adoption is projected to add at least €250 billion to Ireland's economy (GDP) by 2035. Supportive AI policies and an enabling business environment could add an additional €60 billion by 2035. AI adoption is expected to increase Ireland's Gross National Income (GNI) by at least €130 billion by 2035. With the right policies and widespread AI adoption, GNI could be up to €86 billion higher than in a baseline scenario. On a per capita basis, Ireland's GNI could rise to €160,000 per person with optimal AI adoption and policies - €30,000 higher than a non-AI baseline scenario. "Increasingly recognised as a general-purpose technology, similar to electricity and the internet, AI is becoming a fundamental driver of economic growth, and this new report highlights its transformational impact on Ireland," said Catherine Doyle, General Manager, Microsoft Ireland. "Ireland is uniquely positioned to capitalise on AI's capabilities, thanks to its thriving tech ecosystem, skilled workforce, and forward-thinking government initiatives. With a collaborative approach across government, academia, and industry, Ireland can play a leading role in the era of AI, driving sustainable economic growth across sectors and setting the stage for global competitiveness as AI adoption continues to surge." AI Adoption & Governance Challenges While the potential for AI to drive economic growth is clear, organisations still face significant challenges in adopting AI effectively. Despite growing recognition of AI's value, with 50% of organisations (18% increase on 2024) believing AI will enhance productivity, only 8% of organisations have adopted an AI-first approach - integrating AI across all divisions. A key issue appears to be the lack of formal strategy and governance frameworks, creating gaps in secure and responsible AI implementation. In line with the vision of a thriving, competitive AI ecosystem, about half of organisations do not yet have clear AI policies, hindering their ability to manage AI usage effectively. This challenge is compounded by the persistence of a "Shadow AI Culture," where employees independently adopt AI tools without the organisation's oversight. Key findings that underscore this challenge include: 80% of organisations report employees using free AI tools without built-in enterprise security controls (45% in 2024), while enterprise-grade AI tool usage doubled (18% in 2024 to 42% in 2025). 61% of managers acknowledge AI usage even in workplaces where it is officially restricted (30% in 2024). AI Adoption Across the Island of Ireland The report also reveals significant differences in AI adoption across the island of Ireland, particularly in the public sector. These differences highlight both the challenges and opportunities that each region faces as they work toward more integrated AI systems. In Northern Ireland, 24% of public sector organisations use AI in all or most data-driven decision-making, compared to just 13% ...

Alberta has long believed its oil would sell forever, but U.S. refineries are signaling they could drop Alberta crude in a heartbeat. Looks like “forever” lasts about as long as a duck on a tailings pond. Meanwhile, Korea's $800 billion pension fund is ditching coal, an 8-year-old activist has forced India's Supreme Court into action, and Brazil wants to reverse deforestation with reforestation. Main Stories

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫没有什么“美股永远涨”，都逃不过“均值回归”，来自浩然斯坦。今年恒生指数的涨幅冠绝全球，而美股稍显落寞。但市场里始终存在一种“思想钢印”：“美股永远涨”；与之相对的另一种思想钢印：是A股永远3000点。2009年12月31日至今的15年三个月，标普500全收益的年化收益率是14.3%，涨幅为747%，回报高的炫目。但如果我们再往前看看，情况却有些相反。1999年12月31日至2009年12月31日，这十年整，标普500全收益的年化收益率是-0.2%，十年没涨。如果我们再回溯下历史，在1964-1981年这17年间，美国道琼斯指数原地踏步，从874.12点上涨至875点，仅仅上涨了0.1个百分点。因为“美股永远涨”的思想钢印而无脑追投美股，是很危险的投资行为。其实美股长期回报就是8-10%，短期持续高收益一定是无法长久持续的，所谓的高回报的幻觉，无非是时间还不够长而已。投资具体企业可以盯着企业经营，但投资宽指数盯着什么？我认为是均值回归。在高复利之后向着均值回归是必然的。霍华德·马克斯最近说：“以现在的市盈率买标普500，历史数据表明只能获得负2%-2%的10年收益率。如果股价在未来十年保持不变，而公司利润继续增长，将使市盈率逐渐恢复正常水平。但另一个可能是，估值调整被压缩到一两年内发生，导致类似1973-1974年或2000-2002年的大幅下跌。这种情况下的结果就不那么友好了。”股价剧烈下跌带给人的直观感受是风险极大，但其实价格越低安全性是越高的。这与上涨时候正好相反，每天都上涨给人以安全愉快的感觉，实际上风险却在快速聚集。不断的上涨和下跌过程中，最终实现均值回归。标普500的历史平均市盈率，1954年以来的历史均值为16.9倍，1990年以来的历史均值为16.6倍。截止2025年3月7日，标普500的市盈率是28.84倍。当前市盈率是显著高于长期历史均值，处于历史分位极高水平。带着“美股永远涨”的思想钢印的买入标普500的“投资者”，从概率上来说，较大概率在未来20年会比较难过。因为，高估永远是最大的原罪。当我们以美股中3000只股票为样本，研究1962年到2016年6月以来，股票市盈率水平对应未来收益率的情况，我们发现，市盈率小于15倍的时候，市场在未来10年里的回报率为317%；市盈率高于25倍的市场，10年回报率仅为65%。由此可见，买的越便宜，则未来收益越高；买的越贵，则未来收益越低。在我看来，股市有两个大盘宽指的锚点应该视作投资常识：一是15~17倍的长期平均市盈率，二是8-10%的长期平均收益率。无论短期是高出太多还是低出太多，拉长时间看都会均值回归。总有人拿经济好坏来给股市涨跌找理由，其实根本不是那么回事，无论经济好坏，股市的回报依然在均值回归。有这样一个国家，GDP连续负增长，2024年破产公司同比增加24%，2024年失业率升至6%，世界竞争力排名从十年前的第6下滑到第22名，外国投资规模从1389亿美元下滑到219亿，并且连续三年持续面临战争威胁。然而，过去几年这个国家的股市持续大涨，其最具代表性的宽指数，2023年上涨了20.31%，2024年上涨了18.85%，2025年至今已经上涨了13.95%。这个国家是谁呢？答案是德国。德国经济那么差，为什么还涨的这么厉害？经济不好，但是无风险利率很低；GDP负增长，但是好企业的盈利在持续增长；地缘政治有风险，但是已经在2022年跌到位，把最坏的预期提前反应了。股市是复杂的，谁说经济好才能股市好？企业利润提升了，股价可能下跌；企业利润负增长了，但因为股市便宜所以可能有高回报。1971年美元放弃金本位之后，德国DAX指数的年化收益率为7.4%，历史平均市盈率为16.3倍。最近10年德国DAX指数的年化收益率为7.9%，平均市盈率为17.1倍。最近十年德国经济增长很差，远落后于之前的经济增速，但是德国股市的回报并没有变差。这不是独立现象，日本也是如此。2002年日本GDP为515万亿日元，据日本内阁府估算，2024 财年名义GDP将达615万亿日元，过去22年年化增速仅为0.81%。同期，日经 225全收益指数年化收益率却达7.6%。原因首先在于估值一直很便宜，其次任何一个经济体都有一些相对优势，总有些企业，即使经济变差，但企业的盈利还在增长。德国有莱茵金属、蒂森·克虏伯、萨博，日本有优衣库、资生堂、村田、基恩士、武田制药。这些企业相对美股那些科技巨头来说就是“小盘股”，但这些企业凭借细分领域的垄断力，在经济下行期依然能展现出超强的利润韧性，实现持续10年20年甚至30年的利润增长，给投资者带来巨大回报。德股一直不贵，德国DAX指数现在PE也不过18倍，与历史平均市盈率相差不大，股市的良好回报都是宽指数吐故纳新之后企业盈利增长带来的。中国的实际情况比德国好多了，经济增速更高，经济结构更好，科技竞争中的位置更有利，而且难得可贵的是中国股市估值更低，目前沪深300的PE仅为12.5倍。投资中国股市中的优秀企业，不仅能得到企业利润增长带来的收益，还能额外得到一笔估值回归的增值过程。其实拉长时间看，A股的回报不比美股差。沪深300指数的起始日是2004年12月31日，这一天的A股、美股等主流经济体股市估值水平都比较合理，我们就以这个时间点为基准做比较。2004年12月31日至今：标普500全收益指数的年化收益率是10.1%；沪深300全收益指数的年化收益率是8.6%；中证A500全收益指数的年化收益率是8.9%；德国DAX指数的年化收益率是8.3%；再加一个：俄罗斯MOEX指数的年化收益率是8.9%过去20年，无论经济好坏，发展快或慢，战争或和平，其实主要经济体的宽指数回报都差不多。在世界各国的股市历史中，市场估值是长期均值回归的，美国、欧洲各国市场的长期市盈率中值都在15~17倍左右。低估值时高仓位，高估值时低仓位，这个“笨办法”虽然既不能保证“总是对”、也不能保证“马上对”，但是长期坚持下来，一定是超额收益的最主要来源，而这个逻辑本应该是“投资常识”

美国总统特朗普日前在福克斯电视专访中回答关于经济政策的问题。他普预测美国经济会面临“过渡期”，关税有可能会导致通货膨胀回升，他也没有排除美国经济陷入衰退的可能性。亚特兰大联邦储备银行的预测数据显示，美国2025年第一季度GDP增长率的预测跌至-2.82%。但是美国商务部长卢特尼克表示 “绝对不会，美国不会出现经济衰退。”他说关税将导致美国消费者购买一些外国制造的商品的价格上涨，但美国产品将变得更加便宜。特朗普也认为, 利率下降将有助于美国经济的持续增长。特朗普经济政策将对美国经济产生何种短期冲击和长期影响？如何看待美国经济的基本面？

The Trump administration has some nits to pick with government spending: They don't think it should be counted as part of the country's GDP, that it should be counted separately. In today's episode, we look at why government spending is part of the U.S.'s GDP and we speculate why Trump's administration might want to take it out ... and what that could mean.Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoicesNPR Privacy Policy

Live at 2pm PT, we're diving into the growing concern of stagflation in the U.S. economy. With inflation staying high, unemployment ticking up, and economic growth slowing, could we be headed for a 1970s-style economic nightmare in 2025? Let's break it all down!

After weeks of fear-driven markets, we dive into yet another wild day, with the NASDAQ dropping over 4% and major stocks like Tesla taking a hit. But is this a time to panic or an opportunity to invest? Brian Wiley and guest John McClure from ProfitScore break down the market sell-off, the role of interest rates, and how political uncertainty is fueling volatility. They discuss why long-term investors need to stay disciplined and how shifting regulations could impact portfolios. Plus, they unpack the importance of risk management—should you go to cash, or is now the time to buy? Treasuries, GDP trends, and what's next for the U.S. economy.   Listen, Watch, Subscribe, Ask! https://www.therealmoneypros.com   Host: Brian Wiley   Guest: John McClure, President & CIO ProfitScore Capital Management, Inc.

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Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs. This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here. Content Highlights The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51); Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24); Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23); Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14); Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03); The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

In this episode,  Scott Becker discusses GDP measurement, a golf match victory, the benefits of “addition by subtraction,” and a quick tip to beat procrastination.

Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Cleveland's Amazing Cash Flow Opportunities on Thursday, 3/20. Keith discusses the current state of the real estate market, highlighting that single-family rents have risen 41% since pre-pandemic times, while multi-family rents have increased by 26%. Single-family rents have been rising faster than prices for nine months, benefiting investors.  Austin, Texas, is an example of how increased supply can lower rents, as seen in their drop in rents after the city relaxed building regulations.  Real estate strategy expert, Phil, joins us and explains how this niche method can offer high leverage and cash flow. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/544 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, build it and rents will fall. I discuss the direction of rents and prices. Then a real estate strategy for all time that can generate 8x leverage with investor cash flow and the exact city that could be the most advantageous for it today on get rich education.    since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show, guess who? Top Selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from elizabeth new jersey to Elizabeth, Colorado and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, get rich education, founder, Forbes real estate council member, Best Selling Author and long time real estate investor, you are inside, get rich education. What's that all really mean? Ah, I'm just another slack jod and snaggletooth podcaster.nationally, rents for single family homes are growing faster than for multi family apartments. Okay, that you might have already known, because for a few years, we've been in this era where available single family rentals are scarce and apartments are closer to being adequately supplied across the nation. We're now at the point where median single family home rents are up 41% since those blissful and Halcyon pre pandemic days, and yet, multifam rents are up just 26% since that time. So it's 41 versus 26 and that's all according to a new report from Zillow. Now you probably listen to this show every week, so although that might be a helpful update, you probably don't find those facts surprising at all. But here's a more nascent trend that could surprise you. Every single month for the past nine months now, single family rents have risen faster than single family prices. Yeah, the John Burns home value index is up 3.3% annually, and the rent index shows that those rents are up 3.6% so 3.6 versus 3.3 really not a big gap there, but single family rents rising faster than prices for nine months. You know that's exactly what swings things into your favor as a real estate investor, it increases your ratio of rent income to purchase price. This has been happening because for someone that needs housing out there, paying rent has looked more affordable than buying a home. So then those things have to soon come back into balance. Now you remember that five months ago, I visited Austin, Texas, walked the streets and with all of the new building of apartment towers there, I called it America's oversupply, ground zero for apartments. Well, I'm not sure if you've noticed, but here, a few months later, major media sources are now reporting on the same thing that I was telling you about on the ground five months ago, and this is really insightful for real estate investors in a real world case study that will be on every intro to economics syllabus this fall, rents in Austin, Texas plunged. They fell 22% from their peak a couple years ago after the city accelerated permitting processes and scaled back the rules on building height, and this is exactly what created Austin's apartment supply surplus and therefore lower prices for renters. Bloomberg was the one recently reporting on this. So Austin's, if you build it, rents will fall mantra that created about 50,000 new units over just the past two years, a 14% increase. I mean, that is the biggest spike in supply of any US city. Over that time, just tons of cranes in the air. And by the way, the median asking rent in Austin, Texas is now $1,400 remarkably, though, that is down a full 400 bucks from the height of the pandemic. I mean, that is such an aberration That is so weird and rare. Yeah, Austin rents dropped from $1,800 down to $1,400 in in fact, that is so weird, and they've fallen so much that notoriously pricey Austin is no longer the most expensive city in Texas. It's now DFW. And you know, this is astounding on a few levels, because typically rents are even more stable than home prices. Gosh, but now to take off our investor hat for just a minute. Don't worry, we'll put it right back on. This is what society needs. I mean, how in the world are we the nation that put a man on the moon in 1969 yet we can't house our own people today. It's what I've discussed before. We need to build more. If you build it, rents will fall. If you build it, home, prices will become affordable. Again, we're not doing enough of that. Not enough places are following Austin's model. Up zoning, as I've told you before, up zoning. That's the name for allowing taller building heights. And you know what? That's something that both developers and environmentalists often like. Both types developers get what they want, and environmentalists know that housing and the economics of that are more efficient. There's less energy use in everything when we build up and we build apartments rather than single family homes, Austin relaxed regulations and they got it done. So congrats to them. I mean, that is a model for what we can do to address not only housing affordability, but the swelling homelessness problem like I enjoy talking about as well. So yeah, congrats, Austin, though you might have gotten too far ahead of your growth for the short term. America really needs the housing so thank you.    Now here's some ominous news for society and the economy. I wouldn't make too much of it yet, but the Atlanta Fed tracker has plunged. They're now forecasting a shrinking economy this quarter, minus one and a half percent. GDP is a projection which that gets us going down into recession territory, and part of the reason for that is this recent drag in consumption. But news like that can come and go, and we all know how frightfully just laughably bad recession predictions have been for years. We haven't had one in five years. So I want you to get the longer term lesson here, because things pop up like this over time. What usually happens to real estate in a recession? Because we know that there's going to be one. No one knows when. What happens is that unemployment rises. That is bad, home prices go up. Yes, home prices typically rise modestly in a recession. Just remember, since World War Two, home prices only fell significantly in one period, and it was a bad one in those years around 2008 what happens to interest rates? Interest rates of all kinds. In a recession, they fall. Interest rates fall. The Fed make sure that happens, and the reason for that is rates fall because the economy needs the help to review what you've learned so far today, single family rents are rising faster than apartment rents. Single Family rents are rising faster than single family home prices, although not by much. And Austin is proof that if you build it, prices will fall. And during recessions, residential real estate is a good place to be. Then let's say it's a widespread job loss recession as we pivot into the core content of today's show, you're probably quite familiar with the turnkey real estate investing model, where ideally on day one of your property ownership, your income property is either new or renovated. There's a tenant in it. It's under management, and you might even get a little trickle of tenant rent at the closing table. All right, but instead, what if you had six months of patience you own the property for those months through the renovation, and what's your reward for doing that? It is both high leverage and high cash. Flow, potentially, and usually those notions are antagonistic. High leverage means low cash flow and vice versa, but not with what we're talking about today, my expert guest and I discuss how you can have both the cash flow, which is like your spending money, and the leverage that constitutes your long term wealth growth, and he has bought, renovated and sold more than 2000 properties. And my guest and I go back more than 10 years before I go to break where you hear who sponsored the show this week, I have a trivia question for you, and you'll see what this has to do with our episode soon enough, Ohio has six cities with a population of 100,000 or more. Name them. Name those six Ohio cities. I'll give you your answer later. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.   You know what's crazy, your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text, family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 66866,    hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation, because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com, that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    Richard Duncan  12:46   This is Richard Duncan, publisher and macro watch, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  13:02   We were last graced with the presence of this week's guest about two and a half years ago. Since then, we had dinner together in Boston. He is a long time experience expert in the real estate BRRRR strategy will explain, and he knows just the exact few markets where the strategy really works and where it doesn't, and he explains how this can deeply accelerate your ROI and your portfolio growth and get this he's been a real estate investor since he bought his first rental property in 1978 he's been working the burst strategy and mentoring others on it since before there even was a burr acronym, brrr, he has mentored and coached more than 5000 investors. Oh, it's great, Phil, welcome back onto the show.   Phil Alexander  13:54   Keith. Thanks so much. It's such a pleasure to be here. It's always great to see you, and the time really flew from when we were able to break bread together in Boston, which is my hometown. And as I recall, we went to America's oldest restaurant, the union Oyster House, which was a fun experience   Keith Weinhold  14:14   right, where there are lobsters crawling all over the place. Yeah, that was a cool distinction to meet with you in America's oldest restaurant there in Boston. Pretty unforgettable. Phil, though you're from Boston, well, that's not really where the cash flowing numbers work so much you're an expert in the art of the BRRRR  the real estate, buy, rehab, rent, refinance and repeat strategy, and then we'll discuss the market that you say is number one in the USA for this so really high level, big picture. For those that don't know, what is the burr strategy? What makes it so compelling?   Phil Alexander  14:55   There are a lot of different ways Keith to discuss the burr. Strategy. It really is nothing more than a turnkey property. However, in the old days, I'll say, you know, I've been in the business for over two decades, we would sell turnkey properties, and a buyer or investor would come to us, and we'd show them a number of properties that were available. They'd pick one, we'd renovate it, and then they would have it inspected, and then we would correct against that ugly inspection report, and then they probably would be using leverage, so there'd be an appraisal, and then we'd put a qualified tenant in place. And after all that had happened, we would close on the property, and they'd be cash flowing from day one. There's nothing wrong with that approach and strategy. It's very conservative, but relative to the burst strategy, Keith The one big element that's missing in the classic turnkey model, there's no built in equity. And what the burst strategy does is it allows the investor to create value through that renovation, and it's nothing more really than a developer himself or herself does when they renovate the property to create value, and in doing so, you then wait a prescribed period of time, often called a seasoning period, and then you do a cash out refi to pull out that built in equity that you created yourself. And the idea then is to recycle that cash and buy into your next property.   Keith Weinhold  16:35   Why don't you give us a real example with some numbers?    Phil Alexander  16:40   Let's say you could find a place. Now, anybody in California is going to listen to this say this doesn't happen because you can't buy houses for this. But trust me, you can't. You buy a house for $60,000 you renovate it for $40,000 that means you have $100,000 invested in that property. However, you bought that house because you knew, once renovated, it was likely to be worth, let's say, conservatively, 120,000 and yet, when you go and do the cash out refi often at six months from the time you acquired the property in the first place, you're going to be able to pull out up to 75% of that appraised value. I'll do the math for you quickly. 75% of that $120,000 is $90,000 you only put 100,000 into the property in the first place. So at a glance, that suggests that you've gotten this property for $10,000 Well, to be fair, you do have closing costs. So let's say the closing costs and the finance fees on that cash out refi loan are about $5,000 so in essence, for $15,000 you now own a property worth 120,000 now an illustration of the value of this BRRRR strategy is if you were to go and buy that very same house, 420,000 renovated, tenanted, cash flowing, it would cost you 20% down, which would be $24,000 plus finance fees and closing costs would push it to or over $30,000 here's the bottom line. Would you rather get it so it's cash flowing from day one after closing, no built in equity and 30 or $32,000 out of pocket? Or would you rather get it where you only have 15,000 out of pocket? And I can do the math on that and tell you that you're more than doubling your cash on cash return with the BRRRR strategy   Keith Weinhold  19:07    yes, and you've also increased your leverage ratio in the example that you gave after waiting six months, much of which includes waiting for that rehab to take place, you have A 120k property. Like you said, you only have 10k into it. Maybe add five more K to that for closing costs and such. So you've got 15k into a 120k property. That is an eight to one leverage ratio,   Phil Alexander  19:33   exactly. And there are numerous other examples, typically speaking, Keith in good investor advantaged markets with the burst strategy. You can expect after leverage, after that, cash out refinance loan to be netted in the range of 200 to $250 per month cash flow. That's the rental property the. Less all of the direct expenses, less your monthly payment on the loan. Your net positive cash flow every month is between 202 150 in most good markets,   Keith Weinhold  20:13   that is really good on a single family home, because typically when you have a higher leverage ratio, when you're borrowing more, that really crunches your cash flow. But in this terrific example that you gave, it does not So Phil to help distinguish the burr strategy from an investor buying a turnkey property. To make that distinction, I think of the turnkey provider is really already doing the first three letters of the BRRRR acronym for you, because the turnkey company, they buy it, they rehab it, and they rent it before selling it to you. They're doing the first three for you here, when you hang around for all five letters of the acronym, you can be the beneficiary of what you just described.    Phil Alexander  20:58   Spot on, Keith, that's exactly right. The bottom line is, I think a game changer for our company of late is that we have found a market where you could earn two to three times the net positive cash flow on a monthly basis with the BRRRR strategy.    Keith Weinhold  21:19   Yes, we're going to get into just where that market is, the number one market in the USA for the burr strategy, in Phil's opinion. But Phil, I think before some people wrap their head around the BRRRR strategy, sometimes they consider the investor doing this themselves. What's intimidating about doing BRRRR by yourself is that first R in the burr strategy, the rehab, it seems like a nightmare, especially across state lines for an investor to find and retain and to manage contractors, but you have a system where this is all integrated.   Phil Alexander  21:57   exactly, you Know, Keith, I consider the two biggest pain points for an early investor is actually that first letter the B. You can buy properties anywhere, but the trick and the key is to buy a property that you know, with proper renovation of a rental standard, in fact, will be worth, generally, 20 to 30% more than your out of pocket cost. The second pain point is the construction component, finding a contractor, managing a contractor, keeping the contractor on the job and productive and not running away with your money.   Keith Weinhold  22:44   We make you lose faith in humanity. Yeah,   Phil Alexander  22:48   yeah. We don't really even need to go into detail more on that, but you're absolutely right, and what we do, which I think has made a significant difference, we have our own crews. We're able to have the projects managed. We have detailed scopes of work, for example, that detail line by line, item by item, the scope of work and the draw schedule to renovate a property and deliver it on time, on budget, without exception,   Keith Weinhold  23:21   tell us about the track record of the team in the contractors. I think most people's bad experience starts with day one, when the contractor shows up 45 minutes late with beer on their breath.   Phil Alexander  23:35   It could be, it could be, I am blessed. Currently, I'm active in three markets, although during my career, I've worked in 19 different markets around the country, not become fickle, but because markets do come and go. But I'm in Baltimore and Philadelphia and Cleveland right now, and the bottom line is that I have cruise boots on the ground in every market, and my one general contractor that oversees all three markets, he's been with me for over 15 years. As you mentioned earlier, I've been in the business for over two decades. We've just been doing this, like you said, since before there was an acronym to what we were doing. It's just a sensible thing to do. We know each other well. We get the scope of work done accordingly. That's something that we, with pride, say is a guaranteed number, which you don't often find in this business. Meaning if we have not gotten it right, if we have screwed it up, if we find something that we missed when we were, you know, reviewing the house and drawing together the scope of work, that's not the client's problem. That's our problem. If we say the rehab is 50,000 the rehab is 50,000 period there is no cost overrun.   Keith Weinhold  24:58   We don't want. Contractors smelling like Michelob Ultra we want contractors smelling like sawdust and WD 40. But Phil, you talked about the specific markets that you work in because they're burr advantage markets, Cleveland, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Tell us about the one that is number one in the nation right now, and why   Phil Alexander  25:21   Cleveland, Ohio. And it's not because my dad was from Cleveland. When we were kids, we all played I haven't met one person who hasn't on a seesaw, if you recall, you know, and now in your mind's eye, imagine the seesaw. One end is home prices and the other end is annual return. When the home prices are high, the returns are low. When the home prices are lower, the returns are higher. That's why, sadly, for virtually everybody on the West Coast, my hometown of Boston, New York, Washington, DC, South Florida. These are amongst, to put it bluntly, the worst markets in the country to try and cash flow positive. What makes Cleveland, however, especially unique. I'm oversimplifying, perhaps, but it is blessed to have both lower home prices than most markets, but very healthy real world rents, and that's a juxtaposition that causes extreme cash flows. I think at the current moment, I might have one property that doesn't cash flow 500 or more dollars per month, net positive cash flow, as we were discussing, 200 to 250 is normal for a good market, even in my other markets of Baltimore and Philadelphia. But you come to a market like Cleveland, and it's absolutely extraordinary. This is a perfect segue, if you'll allow me to the thing that makes us and me different. There's a billionaire car dealer by the name of herb chambers in Boston. In fact, he just sold, I understand his business for $1.58 billion massive car dealer. That's not important. What is important is his whole marketing mantra, Keith, is I don't sell you cars. I help you acquire your next vehicle. I don't just sell investors houses, Keith, I have taken an approach, and I've been doing this for a number of years, where I help investors achieve their goals. I have a very specific process, and I'd be happy to share, if you'll allow me, yeah, I first ask people about their war chest. To me, that's the amount of liquid capital they have to invest when they're ready to pull the trigger. It's not just cash in the bank. It can be equity in a home that they can pull out with a home equity line of credit, a HELOC, maybe they have a retirement account that they're able to borrow against. It's their money, after all, but that amount of cash is your war chest, and frankly, I'm not one of those people who says, You can buy real estate with no money, if you have maybe $30,000 or more, I can get you in the game. The second question I ask is, what's your goal? Because every one of us in this business has a goal. Every one of us, I don't need to know the specific goal. But whether it's to have your partner give up the nine to five job, or you want to give up the 90 to five job yourself, every goal has a cost. So what I seek to find out or learn is, what is your number in terms of a goal, how many 1000s of dollars of passive income every month are you looking to achieve? And then the last question is, time frame? Are you looking to achieve that goal in? What three years, five years, 10 years. And then, simply put, whatever the answers are, I show you how it's going to happen.   Keith Weinhold  29:18    See, these are the types of questions that your everyday realtor just doesn't ask you. I mean, Phil doesn't just sell you houses. He helps you achieve your stated goals for passive income. There's nothing wrong with an everyday realtor, but that's just not the lane that 98% of them are in. And what makes this burr strategy so compelling? I'm just doing calculations, not even on the back of a napkin, but in my head here, if you've got eight to one leverage, like we do in the example here, even if you have 3% annual appreciation on a property, that's a 24% return on the 15k of skin in the game that you have here. And then additionally, if you achieve $500 Dollars of monthly cash flow once your burr property is done, that's $6,000 a year divided by only 15k of skin in the game. That's a 40 or 40% cash on cash return in addition to the leverage depreciation that stepped up. And these are two of only five ways you're paid. This is why people love the burr strategy, if you've got the patience to wait six months,   Phil Alexander  30:25   here's the other thing too. A lot of people say, Is it possible to cash out earlier? And the answer actually is yes, but you have to be prepared to decide what's that worth to you. Meaning, if you wait six months, you can expect 75% of the appraised value. However, I have some lenders that I can introduce that will do a DSCR loan, debt service coverage ratio loan, which is against the cash flow capability of the house rather than the credit worthiness of the borrower, and they'll do it at three months, and yet it'll be at 65% perhaps of the appraised value, a lower loan to value or LTV. But still, it's a cool way to roll plain and simple.    Keith Weinhold  31:18   Yes, so Phil, here, he offers you total solutions. It's not just helping you with the Property selection, it's renovation by his license, then insured crews, introductions to the financing needs that you might have hash out, refinance introductions and that all important professional property management, unless you choose to manage the property yourself. And Phil, I want to ask you more about Cleveland and just the neighborhoods that you're selecting in a moment, but I've got great news here. You get to join Phil live. He and a GRE investment coach are co hosting Cleveland's amazing cash flow opportunity with the burr strategy, and you can join from the comfort of your own home. It is just 10 days from today, Thursday, March 20, at 8pm Eastern. Registration is open now at GRE webinars.com I suggest you register. We had hundreds of registrants for our last BRRRR event, which was last year. But Phil, tell us more about what you'll let us know on that webinar when it comes to Cleveland areas and neighborhoods.   Phil Alexander  32:26   Sure thing Keith, Cleveland's a pretty dynamic and interesting town. Of course, most people know it's the home of the rock and roll, Hall of Cleveland rocks and Exactly. And there are so many things about Cleveland that I think are really kind of cool to get to know. First of all, we talk or you mentioned appreciation, home price appreciation in Cleveland last year, 7% Yeah, crazy, absolutely crazy. The cost of living is well below the national average, it's at 6% below. Now here's the interesting thing, too, the rent to own ratio of people who rent versus own, very strong 59% rent. And of course, if you're a landlord, what does that mean? It means a greater opportunity to have qualified tenants in place with very low vacancy periods regardless. Now the average rent is $1,433 a month, which, again, when you're talking about properties, the average price of which, even with the renovation, is between 100 and 130,000 let's say 14 133 is even ahead of that cool little metric that we sometimes call the 1% rule, where the rent is at or above 1% of the value of The property. It's a small city only about 360,000 people the metro area, of course, a bit larger, at 1.7 million. And there are a number of top employers, and you know, the Cleveland Clinic, obviously well known Progressive Insurance. Love their ads. Sherwin Williams, you think about that the next time you want to go paint, but it's as to where we're investing principally we target Keith. What often are called C and C plus neighborhoods this week, yeah, often on the eastern, southeastern side of the downtown. Of course, to the north, you've got Lake Erie, so you don't want to get wet, so that you stay east, west or south. And yet, there are a number of places, maybe areas, if you're familiar with Cleveland, like Shaker Heights, Maple Heights, Brooklyn Heights, Cleveland. Heights, University Heights, all of these areas are considered suburbs with high taxes, uniquely so we tend to stay away from those, but in close proximity, we're all around them, and we benefit in terms of appreciation by being all around them, but not being in them, because you don't achieve any higher rent in those suburbs, but you do have the higher taxes, and in that respect, we're able to enjoy these outsized returns.    Keith Weinhold  35:37   This is a rare opportunity for you to meet Phil, someone with this wealth of experience. And of course, the benefit of showing up live, if you so choose, is you can ask a question yourself and have it answered. Phil, do you have any last thoughts overall with anything, whether that's the burr strategy or Cleveland itself, or anything else?   Phil Alexander  36:00    First of all, a lot of people ask me, Keith, you know, with rates mortgages and this and that, what do you think I heard? Maybe they're going to go down in the spring or the summer? Should I wait? The answer is no, the best time to invest is yesterday, and you will always be able, in a market like Cleveland, for example, to enjoy strong, positive cash flow. And you know something, as I said before, I've worked in 19 different markets. As soon as Cleveland stops being such a cash cow, I guess I'll have to move on and find the next great thing. But until then, I'm in Cleveland.    Keith Weinhold  36:40   It is supply demand. Our listeners know, as I've shared with them, that the Northeast in the Midwest are under built markets. So you have the opportunity to own an asset that everyone is going to want in the future. It ought to be great. Phil, it should be terrific 10 days from now. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.   Phil Alexander  37:01    It's my extreme pleasure, Keith, I have to say, in all the years that I've known you and known your listeners, they are easily amongst the best educated and most serious investors I have the pleasure to deal with. So it's always a pleasure to come back and thank you for having me.    Keith Weinhold  37:19   That's really kind. Thanks for saying that.   Yeah, excellent. BRRRR. Breakdown from Phil the consummate expert. In fact, when we had dinner at America's oldest restaurant, we sat just across from JFK, his favorite booth. He used to dine there. He was also a Bostonian. Of course, which six Ohio cities have a population of more than 100,000 people? They are Akron, Cincinnati, then, of course, the subject of today's show and our upcoming live event, Cleveland. Also Columbus, Dayton and Toledo of all 50 states, Ohio has tons of industry diversity. They had the nation's seventh largest population, and Ohio's population is slowly growing. A number of GRE buyers, just like you, have already connected with our investment coaching, so therefore you got the introduction to Phil and have already bought BRRRR through Phil, including in Cleveland, but he is sourcing more of them for this event. Phil and I looked at some Cleveland single family rental pro formas together that utilized the burr strategy that cash flow over $600 even two properties that cash flow over $700 but I would say those results are not typical. The ARVs after repair values have been pretty good. What Phil does is he runs comps of properties within a quarter mile before the appraisal. And you know, to give you a little behind the scenes. He bought the same software that lenders use to run valuation reports. So he has it himself. Phil has shown me proformas where you get cash back at closing, and therefore what that means are infinite returns. Though that's not an expectation that you should have, though it's nice when it happens, people are often buying two or three properties at a time. And to give you a little more, behind the scenes, Phil has his own in house wholesale unit for helping source these properties. And for every 100 properties, he buys two to five of them, Cleveland rocks. But even if you're more into rep, it's completely free to sign up for our webinar. You'll learn the nuances of what makes the burr strategy so lucrative, what makes Cleveland advantageous, and have any of your questions answered. It's coming up next week, already, March 20, at 8pm Eastern. I mean, this is the kind of event that can alter the trajectory of your entire investor life. Sign up is open. Save your spot now at GRE webinars.com that's GRE webinars.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  40:20   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively. You   Keith Weinhold  40:48   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

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