Podcasts about gdp

Guest Mike Murphy, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, joins to discuss ongoing budget talks in DC. Discussion of fraud and waste spending, amount of spending on social programs, the battle on tariffs, and ways to get the federal budget under control. Can we increase the GDP enough to balance the budget, and where can we cut spending? President Trump kicks off the weekend announcing a new "Shield of Americas" movement with multiple Central American and South American nations to battle against cartels, organized crimes, trafficking issues, and more. Can we rid our hemisphere from drugs, crime, and shadow governments?

In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today's markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI's long-term economic impact.Topics covered in this episodeHow geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentimentWhy market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investorsThe relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial marketsWhy Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatilityWhy energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cyclesThe argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economyHow AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demandWhy technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating workThe concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growthPaulsen's analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growingWhy the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positiveHow the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader marketThe historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity marketsWhy policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocksWhether the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy without a traditional recessionWhy policy support may eventually broaden the bull market beyond technology stocksTimestamps0:00 Jim Paulsen on geopolitical volatility, oil prices, and market reactions2:50 How investors should think about the Iran conflict and market implications10:50 The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and safe-haven flows12:20 Why Paulsen likes international and emerging market stocks14:30 Why higher oil prices may not lead to sustained inflation18:40 AI disruption and the economic debate around jobs and productivity23:00 How innovation historically creates new demand and economic growth29:40 Technology is the tail wagging the economic dog33:30 Why the “new economy” is growing far faster than the rest of the economy37:00 Evidence that most of the economy may already resemble a recession41:00 Profit growth disparity between technology and the rest of the economy45:40 Why the stock market can mask weakness in the broader economy46:30 The historical leadership toggle between tech and the broader market49:00 Valuation differences between technology and other sectors50:30 How policy conditions influence market leadership55:00 Signs that leadership may already be shifting beyond tech57:00 Could the Fed ease without a traditional recession59:00 What a policy shift could mean for the next phase of the bull market

The Administration tells us that a new "Golden Age" for the American economy is now underway, and that we should see substantial material incremental GDP growth this year from the policies it has put in place through acts like the One Big Beautiful Bill, tax relief, deregulation, tariffs and new trade deals purported to bring $trillions of new foreign investment into the US.Today's guest, however, is much more skeptical of the promise of these policies as well as the overall prospects for the economy.And now the US is at war with Iran. How will that impact the situation?For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.LAST CHANCE! REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#bearmarket #marketcorrection #jobs _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

We have had some extremely distinguished guests over the last 6 years, but we haven't secured one who combines, a Rhodes Scholar, US Army Colonel, Counter terrorism expert, leading the US's cyber intelligence defence agency, and a lecturer at Oxford and beyond, whilst also having worked at Morgan Stanley, and now CEO at RSAC. Jen plots a journey from Oxford to Westpoint, from Colonel of the US's first Cyber Battalion to the Whitehouse, working under Condoleezza Rice and then chosen by President Biden to create CISA, The US's first cyber defense agency.In a whirlwind, world-wide tour, Jen plots the risks, defines the adversaries, reflects on intelligence, cooperation, and the real and present cyber risks to industries.She offers advice to boards, the existential risks for businesses who think this is just a “technology issue” and leaves us with a stark observation. If the cost of annual cybercrimes were aggregated into one number, it would be equivalent in GDP terms to being the third largest economy in the world! The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG.Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube 

DescriptionIn this episode, Dave "CAC" Kellogg and Ray "Growth" Rike go point-counterpoint on two high-profile articles making waves across Wall Street and Silicon Valley: Citrini's provocative February 2025 report, The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, and Citadel's rebuttal, The 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis.Dave and Ray unpack whether AI is truly triggering an unprecedented economic collapse or whether Citrini's dark simulation is, as one economist put it, just "a scary bedtime story." They dig into the SaaS private credit contagion theory, the historic parallels of labor displacement, the role of government regulation, and why this particular AI scare hits closer to home than any previous tech disruption. As always, the brothers bring the receipts, including nearly 20 sources and 20 hours of research - so you don't have to.Full Episode Summary:Dave Kellogg and Ray Rike open by framing the episode as a tale of two AI futures: Citrini's alarming speculative simulation versus Citadel's data-driven rebuttal.The Citrini Case (Bear Case): Published February 22nd, Citrini's report simulates a scenario in which rapid AI agent adoption triggers a global intelligence crisis by mid-2028 featuring 10.2% unemployment and a 38% drop in the S&P 500. The report argues AI is categorically different from prior technology waves because it displaces cognitive workers, who represent roughly 75% of U.S. labor income.Citrini further warns that SaaS, already accounting for 23% - 25% of the $3 trillion U.S. private credit market could become the chip in the windshield that cracks the broader financial system, with ripple effects into insurance and the broader economy. Dave and Ray note that Citrini's word choices ran 3.4-to-1 negative, and flag that the firm may hold short positions — characterizing the piece as well-crafted "bear porn."The Citadel Rebuttal (Bull Case): Two days later, Citadel, a $65B AUM asset manager with 35 years of credibility responded with a data-driven defense. Software engineering jobs are up since January 2024, AI CapEx is 2% of GDP and AI-adjacent commodity pricing is up 65%. Citadel argues AI follows historical S-curve adoption patterns, that "recursive capability doesn't equal recursive adoption," and that technology has always complemented rather than replaced labor - pointing to Microsoft Office as a historical analogue.Dave and Ray's Take: Both hosts find Citadel more credible, but acknowledge real displacement risks ahead. Their key insight: the reason this particular AI scare is generating 10x more fear than past labor disruptions (auto workers, telephone operators, elevator operators) is that this time it's us — white-collar knowledge workers facing displacement. Ray adds that blue-collar jobs (truck drivers, Uber drivers, warehouse workers) face equal or greater long-term risk from AI plus robotics, but those disruptions don't generate the same visceral fear in the media and investor class. Both agree the timing of adoption is the biggest unknown. Long-term, history favors the Citadel view. Short-term, the transition could be painful.On Government Response: Dave and Ray agree that political and regulatory intervention is inevitable if unemployment spikes materially, whether through labor protections, AI regulation, or fiscal stimulus.On Economists' Reactions: Real economists, including Noah Smith (Noahpinion) and Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, largely dismissed the Citrini piece, wi Siegel arguing that productivity gains generate new income and demand, Smith calling it a "scary bedtime story." Dave's takeaway for operators: let the Metrics Brothers do the 20 hours of reading so you don't have to.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

On this week's episode of The Liquidity Event, Shane and AJ break down the viral "Settrini Report," a fictional yet plausible AI scenario that rattled markets and raised serious questions about productivity, white-collar job displacement, and the future of labor's share of GDP. They discuss whether AI pricing is sustainable, what new data center infrastructure means for small-town America, and why we may be closer than ever to a zero-employee unicorn company. The conversation then shifts to the ethics and economics of organ donor compensation, including whether families should be reimbursed for funeral expenses and how incentives shape real-world outcomes. The episode wraps with a Reddit debate about paying 1.25% on a $10 million portfolio, what that fee should actually buy you, and why behavioral discipline often matters more than cost. Key Timestamps: 01:52 – How the "Settrini Report" went viral and moved markets 04:18 – AI agents replacing $180K product managers 07:02 – What happens if labor's share of GDP collapses 09:40 – Is AI pricing real, or just VC-subsidized for now? 12:11 – AI infrastructure, power plants, and small-town impact 15:03 – The rise of the zero-employee unicorn founder 18:27 – Organ donor compensation and the ethics debate 22:10 – How other countries structure organ donor incentives 24:54 – Paying 1.25% on a $10M portfolio… is it worth it? 28:41 – Market volatility, geopolitical tension, and staying disciplined

Corn and wheat slip while beans hold steady; Middle East war has markets on edge; China import demand expected to slip as they lower GDP targets; winter wheat crop condition update.

As our governments, institutions, and the public become more aware of the increasing pressures on material and energy availability, we've simultaneously seen powerful ripple effects for industrial policy, economic planning, and geopolitical dynamics. Parallel to this story are evolving strategies unique to each nation as new lines of power emerge alongside the trends of artificial intelligence, competing demands for rare earth metals, and an increasingly unstable global power balance that underpins all of it. How have these seemingly disparate factors combined to influence recent international events – and how can understanding them help us forecast the future of global governance and power?  In this episode, Nate is joined by financial and economic analysts, Craig Tindale and Michael Every, to discuss the widespread implications of growing geopolitical tensions over scarce resources and the rapidly changing foreign policy and economic statecraft that countries are implementing in response. Importantly, Craig and Michael emphasize the centrality of China and the U.S. as the two superpowers reshaping global alliances, and how industrial capacity and material constraints underpin each move made in their pursuit for dominance. Ultimately, they emphasize the need for clarity and realignment of the goals for economic and industrial policy as we leave behind the era of growth and grapple with a simplifying world. What can the long overlooked story of rare earth metals, energy resources, and industrial capacity tell us about ongoing geopolitical events? How might continued AI development play a key role in the future of economic statecraft and the international balance of power? And finally, how should we re-think what economic growth actually serves in an era of resource constraints, geopolitical competition, and ecological crisis? In other words, what is GDP truly for? (And what is GPT really for?)   About Craig Tindale: Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in East-to-West supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.  He's now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.    About Michael Every: Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis.  Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

“We should all be able to look at the numbers and agree that this is not sustainable and that whatever we've been doing is not working. Democrats have had their chance, and Republicans have had their chance, and it's only gotten worse.” — Halle TeccoWarren Buffett called America's healthcare costs “a hungry tapeworm on the American economy.” That tapeworm now devours nearly a fifth of the nation's GDP—and the patient, as always, is on the table. We dedicate today's show to this most perennial of all America's problems, with two guests and two new books that approach the tragi-comedy from different angles.Self-styled innovation wonk Halle Tecco—founder of Rock Health, investor in over fifty digital health companies, professor at Columbia Business School—argues in Massively Better Healthcare that the system is both excessively public and excessively private, a Kafkaesque bureaucracy in which verticalized health plans now own the PBMs, the pharmacies, and increasingly the doctors. The result is monopoly medicine on a scale that would have appalled the original trust-busters.This is ultimately an antitrust story. As we've discussed on the show with Tim Wu, Biden's chief antitrust enforcer, the concentration of corporate power is the great unfinished business of American democracy. Tecco makes the case that Big Med is where the trust busters should go next after Big Tech. UnitedHealth is now one of the largest employers of doctors in the country. So it wasn't exactly shocking when the UnitedHealth CEO was assassinated two years ago. The system isn't broken, Tecco suggests. It's working exactly as designed—just not for patients.Surgeon Robin Blackstone, MD, author of Doctor AI: Reimagining Health. Rebuilding Trust. Delivering Health 4.0, joins us in the second half of the show to offer a view from the front lines. After 30 years as a surgeon, Blackstone confirms everything Tecco diagnoses—and adds a chilling detail of her own: the system is priced entirely for fixing illness, not preventing it. Her prescription is a “triangle of trust” between patient, physician, and AI—with the patient finally owning their own data.Both agree on one thing: every dollar spent on public health saves $14.30 in medical and societal costs. We are all already paying for all the waste. We just need to fix Big Med. But who's going to do it? Tecco says that America is ready for another round of Obamacare politics. But I'm not so sure. Five Takeaways•       Healthcare Is a Tale of Two Civilizations: If you're wealthy, you go to UCSF and get the best care in the world. If you're not, you're one of the 100 million Americans without a regular primary care provider. Healthcare debt is the number one cause of bankruptcy. A person earning $30,000 in a rural county can expect to live a full decade less than someone earning $100,000 in an affluent suburb.•       The Real Winners Are Monopoly Medicine: Verticalized health plans now own the PBMs, the pharmacies, and increasingly the providers. The ACA's profit cap forced them to grow the pie instead of getting more efficient. United is now one of the largest employers of doctors in the country. Independent pharmacies are closing at the rate of one per day. Rite Aid is bankrupt—the only major chain not owned by a health plan.•       Every $1 in Public Health Saves $14.30: We're already paying for the crisis—in emergency room visits, lost productivity, and disability. We just need to move the safety net upstream. Public health is the only part of the system designed for prevention, yet its share of total health spending has dropped 25% in two decades. The economic case is overwhelming. The political will is not.•       AI Could Break the Information Asymmetry: Patients are already using ChatGPT to diagnose themselves—and sometimes it's saving their lives. One woman caught her own pneumonia because her doctor couldn't see her for a week. But some doctors want to keep the paternalism: one AI tool built on medical journals is restricted to clinicians only because making it available to patients would “piss off the doctors.”•       The System Is Priced for Rescue, Not Health: Everything is loaded to the moment your gallbladder goes bad or your heart gets a blockage. Prevention doesn't get paid for. Both guests agree: we need a massive re-pricing that rewards keeping people healthy, not just treating them when they're sick. That means paying doctors to prevent strokes, not just to fix them. About the GuestsHalle Tecco is the founder of the venture fund Rock Health and an investor in more than fifty digital health companies. She is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and a course director at Harvard Medical School. Her new book is Massively Better Healthcare: The Innovator's Guide to Tackling Healthcare's Biggest Challenges (Columbia University Press).Robin Blackstone, MD, is a physician, health systems architect, and founder of Blackstone Health. A surgeon by training with 30 years of clinical experience, she is the author of Doctor AI: Reimagining Health. Rebuilding Trust. Delivering Health 4.0.ReferencesPrevious Keen On episodes and authors mentioned:•       Robert Pearl on how AI will be monetized in the healthcare industry•       Tim Wu on the extractive economics of platform capitalism•       Zeke Emanuel on which country has the world's best healthcare•       Warren Buffett on healthcare costs as “a hungry tapeworm on the American economy”About Keen On AmericaNobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States—hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,800 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting.WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple Podcasts

SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Harry Murphy Cruise from Oxford Economics about the impact of the Middle East war on the Australian economy, even as GDP expands at its fastest rate in almost three years. Plus Niv Dagan from Peak Asset Management on the day's sharemarket news including the market's reaction to ARN Media's decision to pull the Kyle and Jackie O show.

New Zealand's economic recovery could be put at risk by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Westpac modelling shows if it was to stay closed for a month, it would put inflation over 4% and knock half a percent off GDP. Senior Economist Kelly Eckhold told Mike Hosking we're much more vulnerable than Australia when it comes to energy. He says we only have a few weeks of key petroleum products sitting in the tanks, and after that we're relying on boats turning up to meet our needs. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

When China's top political advisory body and legislature convene this week for their annual sessions, the major item on their agendas will be a draft outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30). The deeper story, however, lies in how these gatherings have evolved into a mechanism through which the country's leadership translates strategic vision into operational governance and concrete results.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012, General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping has participated in deliberations and exchanges with National People's Congress deputies and members of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference National Committee more than 60 times, guiding the trajectory of China's modernization.Xi's emphasis during these meetings on high-quality development, innovation-driven growth and people-centered governance has provided a consistent policy framework that has helped China navigate a volatile global environment while sustaining growth and stability.China's GDP surpassed 140 trillion yuan ($20.4 trillion) last year, amid supply-chain disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions — evidence of a system that has prioritized resilience and structural upgrading over short-term stimulus.What distinguishes Xi's engagement at the two sessions is its granular focus. Xi has communicated extensively with NPC deputies and CPPCC National Committee members on factory productivity, rural incomes, eldercare services, environmental remediation, talent cultivation, etc. This micro-to-macro feedback loop is effective in strengthening communications between the leadership and those from all walks of life. When a steel plant manager reports that digital upgrades have raised productivity, or a community social worker describes improved eldercare services following targeted policy guidance, these examples become data points in a broader effort to recalibrate national priorities toward quality, efficiency and equity in national social and economic development.A theme emerging from Xi's participation in these discussions is the primacy of high-quality development. His assertion that without high-quality development, there can be no socialist modernization reflects an understanding familiar to economists: growth that relies on diminishing returns, environmental degradation or excessive leverage is self-limiting. By urging authorities at various levels to develop new quality productive forces while upgrading traditional industries, the leadership has sought to promote technological diffusion and industrial modernization rather than premature deindustrialization.The results are visible in multiple sectors. Artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing are reshaping production models, while breakthroughs in materials science and power equipment are reducing dependence on foreign inputs. These developments suggest a pragmatic strategy to move up the value chain while preserving and optimizing the country's manufacturing base.Xi's calls to improve talent-training mechanisms and align education with economic needs reflect a recognition that human capital is the foundation for these endeavors. The development of national engineering academies, university technology transfer centers and industry-education partnerships indicates an attempt to institutionalize this linkage. In economic terms, China is trying to internalize the spillover benefits of innovation by embedding research, production and skills development within a unified policy ecosystem.Equally notable is the sustained focus on people's livelihoods. Xi's exchanges with farmers, migrant workers, grassroots civil servants and researchers on poverty alleviation, rural vitalization, employment and eldercare underscore the people-first principle of the country's public policies. The transformation of once-impoverished villages through infrastructure, e-commerce and eco-tourism, and the expansion of community-based services for the elderly, illustrate a shift from subsistence security to quality-of-life improvements. This aligns with the goal of advancing common prosperity — which balances efficiency with social fairness and justice.Environmental policy provides another lens through which to assess the modernization agenda. The concept that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets has been operationalized through nationwide ecological restoration, renewable energy deployment and desertification control. Regions once defined by environmental degradation are now experimenting with solar power, eco-tourism and sustainable agriculture, suggesting that environmental stewardship is being integrated into local growth models rather than treated as an external constraint.Xi's engagement with the national lawmakers and political advisers at the two sessions since 2012 highlights the way in which the country aligns good governance with economic transformation and social welfare in pursuit of national modernization.

If Canada isn't in a recession, why does it feel like one for so many Canadians?In this episode of Classonomics from The Missing Middle, hosts Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt dig into one of the biggest contradictions in today's economy. On paper, everything looks great. GDP is growing. Corporate profits are strong. Stock markets are hitting record highs. Yet, for millions of Canadians, life feels harder than ever. Food bank usage has doubled since 2019. Young people can't afford homes in cities where their parents once bought starter houses. And even full-time workers are struggling to make ends meet.Sabrina and Mike break down what's really happening beneath those rosy headlines through the lens of the K-shaped economy, where wealthier Canadians continue to thrive while everyone else falls further behind. The top 20 percent are seeing record financial gains from stocks and investments, while the bottom 40 percent are sinking under housing costs, stagnant wages, and shrinking purchasing power.They explore how this divide is reshaping not only people's bank accounts but also their trust in institutions, politics, and the very idea of upward mobility. When the data says the economy is strong but your grocery bill says otherwise, frustration and hopelessness grow, and faith in the system fades fast.Does Canada's economy feel strong to you, or are you feeling left behind? Join the discussion in the comments.Chapters:00:00 – Intro01:32 – What is a “K-Shaped Economy”? (The Two-Way Split)02:54 – Why Younger Canadians Feel Locked Out of Growth04:10 – The Record-Breaking Income Gap in Canada05:18 – How the Richest Stay Ahead06:48 – The Parental Wealth trap08:24 – Hard Work vs. Inheritance09:56 – Shocking Stats on Food Bank Users11:47 – Why Canadians Feel Gaslit by GDP data15:21 – Restoring the Link Between Work and RewardRESEARCH LINKS:Statistics Canada - Distributions of household economic accounts, third quarter 2025The Hub - Canada's growing wealth gap in 7 chartsFood Banks Canada - HungerCount 2025Statistics Canada - Income and wealth gaps increased in 3rd quarter of 2025TD Economics - The Days Of Our Lives (K-shaped economy analysis)Parliamentary Budget Officer - Estimating the top tail of the family wealth distribution in CanadaHosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux Produced by Meredith Martin This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In today’s episode, Ben O’Shea and Seven’s Adrian Barich pay tribute to legendary broadcaster Dennis Cometti, who died aged 76. Plus, why Trump says British PM is “No Churchill” & the GDP bump we don’t want.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Opportunities in fixed income are the best in over a decade, according to BlackRock. Investors can now build a 6% yielding portfolio without taking on the substantial credit or long-duration risks required in the past. Meanwhile, central bank policies have become desynchronized globally, creating a unique environment where Asian local bonds are negatively correlated to US debt. This wide dispersion in rates is creating unprecedented opportunities for investors to diversify portfolios and differentiate returns. Navin Saigal, head of global fixed income, Asia Pacific at BlackRock, joins John Lee on the Asia Centric podcast. He discusses how the AI and tech revolution is driving productivity gains and high GDP growth alongside a net-negative job environment — a dynamic that could put a dampener on global inflation. Saigal also explains why Asian local bonds remain among the most compelling, yet under-owned, diversification opportunities in the market today.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Australian share market suffered its worst day in a month, extending losses for a second straight session with all 11 sectors in negative territory. The conflict in the Middle East has heightened volatility, overshadowing stronger-than-expected GDP data showing 2.6% annual growth. Energy prices surged as Trump directed the US Navy to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, while gold miners faced profit-taking after recent record highs. Steve Daghlian and Laura Besarati are Market Analysts at CommSec. Each episode, they break down the day's market movements and explain what the numbers really mean. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure Analyst Qianlei Fan discusses how China's travel industry is shifting from a post-pandemic rebound to a multi-year expansion.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Qianlei Fan, Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong / China Transportation Analyst. Today, I'll share my thoughts on why travel is quickly emerging as one of [the] key drivers of China's economic rebalancing.It's Tuesday, March the 3rd, at 2pm in Hong Kong. I've just gotten back from my Lunar New Year trip to mainland China. With the longest Chinese New Year break in history, people were out roaming, exploring, laughing, and the whole country felt like it was buzzing with people on a mission to enjoy every minute. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, total domestic tourism spending recorded a robust 19 percent year-on-year growth during the holiday. In fact, China's tourism industry isn't just rebounding after the pandemic. It's entering a structurally stronger phase, supported by policy tailwinds, demographic shifts, and a clear pivot toward experience-driven consumption. By 2030, tourism revenue could reach RMB 12 trillion – equal to roughly USD $1.7 trillion – implying 11 percent annual growth from the mid-2020s. Over the next five years, cumulative domestic and inbound revenue may approach RMB 50 trillion, or USD $7.2 trillion. That scale makes travel more than a cyclical recovery – it's becoming a core pillar of China's consumption-led growth. We expect tourism's share of GDP to rise to about 6.7 percent by 2030, up from 4.8 percent in 2024.Domestic travel remains the backbone. People aren't just traveling again; they're traveling more than before. Policy is reinforcing demand. Extended public holidays, new school breaks, and event-driven tourism are boosting activity. In 2025 alone, around 3,000 large-scale performances attracted more than 43 million attendees. And spending reflects that shift. Domestic tourism spending reached RMB 6.3 trillion in 2025, about 11 percent above pre-COVID levels. Even with slightly lower spend per trip, more frequent travel is lifting overall revenue.International travel is emerging as a second growth engine. By 2030, inbound travel could represent 16 percent of total tourism revenue. In late 2025, inbound visitor growth in major cities was up about 30–50 percent year-over-year, supported by expanded visa-free access, which now accounts for the majority of foreign arrivals. These visitors often stay longer and spend more. Outbound travel is strengthening too. International air traffic grew 22 percent in 2025, far outpacing domestic growth, and now contributes a meaningful share of airline revenue. Demographics and technology are reinforcing the trend. Younger consumers prioritize travel, while older households – with substantial savings – are beginning to spend more as services improve. At the same time, smart hotels, virtual reality attractions, and data-driven operations are enhancing engagement and willingness to pay. This isn't just pent-up demand. It's policy, demographics, technology, and supply aligning at once. – with travel at the center of China's consumption story.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitical risk, AI and productivity, capital flows, credit markets, fiscal policy, and the shift from US to international equities. Andy walks through the framework he uses to evaluate uncertainty, from wars and geopolitical shocks to the long-term implications of artificial intelligence, and explains why capital markets and funding conditions may matter more than bold narratives. We also explore growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the structural case for global diversification in today's macro environment.Main topics coveredA practical framework for analyzing geopolitical shocks, including red flags, green flags, and how to evaluate information quality during times of uncertaintyHow markets are pricing the current conflict with Iran across oil, equities, bonds, gold, and volatilityWhy historical market performance after wars may offer limited predictive value due to small sample sizesHow to think about AI from a macro perspective, including GDP growth versus GDP share and who ultimately captures the gainsThe capital markets implications of massive AI-related capex and whether equity and credit markets can fund current spending plansGrowth, inflation, and the Fed: how fiscal stimulus, wealth effects, QT, and labor market trends are shaping the current macro backdropWhy Andy has shifted away from US assets toward international markets, including the role of bond yields and global risk parityA critical look at the Trump accounts proposal and the broader issue of fiscal deficits and capital allocationThe key risks Andy is watching over the next three to six months, especially around credit markets and funding conditionsTimestamps00:00 Introduction and overview of discussion topics01:01 Framework for evaluating geopolitical shocks and information quality11:46 Market reaction to the Iran conflict and asset pricing implications23:00 Why historical war data may not be reliable for market forecasting27:03 How to analyze AI's impact on productivity and economic growth37:00 AI capex, credit markets, and funding risks42:24 Growth, inflation, and Fed policy in the current cycle49:20 The case for international equities over US markets56:20 Trump accounts, fiscal policy, and capital allocation01:02:23 What Andy is watching most closely in the months ahead

What industry has the annual impact of $3.5 trillion to U.S. GDP, generates $1.3 trillion in personal earnings and supports 20.4 million jobs?  CRE, of course! Join us as Marc Selvitelli CEO of NAIOP discusses highlights of their 2026 economic impact report with broker and show host Michael Bull, CCIM. Discussions include a behind the curtain look at office, industrial, retail, multifamily and data centers.  TCN Worldwide Real Estate Services - A global network of over 1,500 leading commercial real estate professionals delivering integrated, expert sales, leasing, management and consulting services across 200 U.S. and global markets. https://www.tcnworldwide.com/ Buildout - Aconnected software platform built for commercial real estate brokerages—combining CRM, marketing, data, and back-office automation. https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty, TCN Worldwide - Commercial Real Estate Asset & Occupancy Solutions in Atlanta and throughout the Southeast U.S. https://www.bullrealty.com/ Commercial Agent Success Strategies - Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/  

Abortion and LGBTQ issues have zero traction in politics any more. So should we jettison social conservatism for fiscal? Kevin talks with Bill Jack about the utter lack of substance behind Republican fiscal policy. We're doing worse on the deficit-to-GDP ratio in this fiscal year than Biden did in every year of his office. So what should we do when conservatives don't care about social sins, and are more liberal on spending than liberals?

In today's episode on 4th March 2026, we break down India's revised GDP estimates, the new measurement framework, and the hows and whys behind it.⁠Book a FREE call with Ditto⁠

Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society.   In this episode, Justin interviews Randy Nornes, the 2025 Harry and Dorothy Goodell Award Winner, about his career. They talk about uncertainty and a long-term approach to risk. Randy won the 2025 Goodell Award for his lifetime achievements. He is a problem solver. Randy advises risk professionals not to focus on what they did yesterday, but on what is happening today, and to stay current with risks such as AI and cyber risk. Randy talks about how staying with Aon for years has given him the latitude to look across the company and focus on the next risk. Listen for tips on laying the groundwork before the risks.   Key Takeaways: [:01] About RIMS and RIMScast. [:16] About this episode of RIMScast. Our guest is 2025 Goodell Award Winner Randy Nornes. We will learn all about his fascinating career and his risk philosophies. But first… [:42] RIMS Virtual Workshops. On March 10th and 11th, we have a two-day course led by John Button for the RIMS-CRMP Exam Prep. [:53] On March 17th and 18th, RIMS will align with AFERM for a two-day RIMS-CRMP-FED Exam Prep Course. [1:01] On March 4th and 5th, we have a virtual workshop, "Facilitating Risk-Based Decision Making", with Joe Milan. On April 15th, we have a virtual workshop covering "Emerging Risks", led by Joseph Mayo. [1:18] Register today and strengthen your risk knowledge. RIMS members always enjoy deep discounts on the virtual workshops. [1:26] Webinars. On March 6th, RIMS presents "Hard Hats & High Stakes: Women Leaders Shaping Construction Risk Management". We'll be joined by a Chief Risk Officer, an underwriter, and a broker. [1:40] They will explore their career paths, risk and safety philosophies, and lend some insight as to why this is the time for the next generation of leaders to rise. [1:51] For a quick preview, check out last week's episode with Cynthia Garcia. She is the Chief Risk Officer from Bernards, who will be joining us on that exciting panel. [2:00] On March 12th, Global Risk Consultants returns with "Don't Waste the Soft Market: Where to Reinvest Insurance Savings Before the Window Closes". Register for these and other webinars by visiting RIMS.org/webinars and the links in this episode's show notes. [2:20] On with the Show! Our guest today, Randy Nornes, is the 2025 Harry and Dorothy Goodel Award Winner. [2:29] Named after the first President of RIMS and his wife, the Harry and Dorothy Goodell Award honors an individual who has furthered the goals of risk management and the Society through outstanding service and lifetime achievement. [2:41] Randy Nornes exemplifies all that and more. He has been with Aon for 38-plus years. Currently, Randy is the Executive Vice President and Enterprise Client Partner for Technology, Media, and the Communications Industry. He has done some volunteer work, which we will talk about. [3:00] Randy has a fascinating career. We're going to learn about it as well as his leadership style, his risk philosophy, and how he is keeping Aon at the forefront of AI innovation. [3:09] [If you've been to RISKWORLD, you've seen Randy in the halls and the educational sessions. He has been an ever-present force there. And he is a highly-regarded member of the Chicago RIMS Chapter. Let's get to it! [3:23] Interview! 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes, welcome to RIMScast! [3:44] Randy is proud of that award. He wonders, after receiving a lifetime achievement award, what's next? Retirement? Should he write a book? [4:11] On the day of the award, Randy was backstage with Martha Stewart and had a chance to visit with her and discuss risk management. [4:21] Randy's wife and one of his sons were in the audience. When Martha Stewart came out and spoke, she referred to their conversation. Randy gained credibility at home that Martha Stewart listened to what he had to say! [4:52] Justin says that RISKWORLD 2025 was fantastic! Randy says he has probably attended three dozen RISKWORLD conferences. He says they get better and are different every time. You can see, decade by decade, what's important. [5:31] There is a wonderful profile on Randy Nornes, written by Russ Banham, in the special Awards edition of RIMS Risk Management Magazine. It is still available online. That's how Justin got to know Randy Nornes before this interview. [5:57] Randy always tries to link up with what the next big thing is. Since late 2025, Randy has been leading Aon's AI infrastructure efforts, from the financing of data centers, to the construction, to the development, to the operation, and to the energy attached to that.  [6:28] AI is the next big thing. Randy says that 40% of GDP is coming through the lens of building AI infrastructure. Aon has a big team for it, and that's what Randy does every day. He says it's massive, exciting, and relentless. [7:03] Randy says, Because it's coming so fast and furious, it's not something you have time to sit back and think about. He says we're seeing this thing evolve week by week. It's global. Risk management is at the center of making it all work. [7:27] Randy says there's a different lens depending on where you sit in the AI infrastructure world. Everyone is thinking about the risks of the construction, the operation, the access to power, and the climate. It's all melded into one thing. [7:48] Randy calls the Chicago RIMS Chapter big and vibrant. Chicago is unique in having representation from so many different industries. It's not highly concentrated. People have a lot of lenses to look at risks through. It makes for good conversations. [8:11] Justin notes that last year's Risk Manager of the Year, Jennifer Pack, was from Chicago. The Rising Star, Megan Smalter, was originally from Chicago. Randy has spent time on the West and East Coasts, and he finds the Chicago Chapter unique, with 25 different industries. [8:49] Justin gives a shout-out to Julie Bean, the 2024 Heart of RIMS Award Winner. Justin says Randy is in great company. The talent coming out of Chicago brings something special to RIMS. [9:27] Randy was going to be a banker. A banker manages risk around lending and projects. It's not a huge leap to get to the world of risk management from there. [9:44] In the 1980s, it was a turbulent time for banking. We had just come out of a tough inflationary period, with real estate bankruptcies and banks and savings and loans going under. His advisor told him not to go into banking. [10:18] Randy interviewed someone from Chubb. Chubb was scaling up a new product, Directors' and Officers' insurance. Randy was good at case studies in business school. Underwriting D&O insurance is a case study. Randy thought he could do that job. [10:54] Randy started at Chubb and ended where he is today. In 1987, Randy moved to Frank B. Hall, acquired by Aon in 1992. He was young and a good worker, so he was kept by the company. He says it was a trip working alongside Pat Ryan and learning the business at Chubb. [11:48] Pat Ryan took Randy and others under his wing. He is a great mentor. Randy credits him for access. Randy mentions other early supporters, Al Diamond and Skip Dunn. With Pat Ryan, Randy was always looking for the next big risk to come along or a new framework. [13:00] In the 1990s, governance, Sarbanes-Oxley, and enterprise risk frameworks came to the forefront, following bankruptcies of major companies that had appeared to be successful. [13:28] When enterprise risk became a thing, it needed frameworks. That led Randy to build one of the first enterprise-risk-focused teams to help companies think about it. This was before COSO. [13:55] Randy says a lot of the clients they dealt with in those early days were in industries where someone had already gone through some trauma, and they wanted to make sure they weren't next up. It was a lot of, "Hurry up and make sure we're OK!" [14:26] Randy says, in the 1990s, they were doing risk modeling. The reinsurance teams had risk models that ran on AS400 mainframe computers. They had to book computing time to run a scenario with a set of assumptions. They would run 10,000 simulations in a day. [14:55] If they wanted to change the assumptions, they had to book another time. [15:02] Now it's all on the laptop. The quality of data is significantly higher. They can do it in real time. Risk managers today may not recognize how lucky they are. [15:24] Randy says, We're always trying to decide what problem we're trying to solve for and what we know about that particular issue. The modeling is the entry point to know what to do or what matters. [16:10] Randy thinks risk is a terrible word. We risk professionals have a hard time communicating with people who aren't in our space when we use the word risk. Everyone has a different definition of risk. Randy says everyone can get on board with certainty and uncertainty. [16:34] Randy says, what we're doing with modeling is trying to understand what the distance between certainty and uncertainty looks like. Then, we have to decide what's comfortable and where our tolerance is. Then, decide what to do with the part that we want to get rid of. [16:48] That's at the core of risk management, and it hasn't changed in decades. The tools we have now have changed dramatically. [16:56] Justin cites Christy Kaufman from the profile article, who said that Randy is far more than a traditional broker; he is a thought partner and a problem-solver. Justin asks what allows Randy to move beyond transactional work into a strategic advisory mindset. [17:19] Randy says insurance is a complete waste of money, unless you can show how you're adding value. You can get there by showing this uncertainty spectrum and understanding it. [17:58] Randy says the mindset is, "I've parachuted in. What do we have going on?" If I did that today, I'd be looking at supply chain issues. It's amazing when you have that lens. Early on, he looked at a supply chain that was "perfect, end-to-end" on spreadsheets. [18:27] Everything was manually entered. Managers were judged on average inventory levels, and wanted to keep the levels as low as possible. To game the system, they ran inventory at the lowest level.  [18:57] They would raise the inventory at the end of the month to make it look like they were on target. It was not a real-time inventory. It looked like risk management was fine, but the chance of a stockout or a long-term impact was pretty great. [19:24] A Quick Break! RISKWORLD 2026 will be held from May 3rd through the 6th in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. RISKWORLD attracts more than 10,000 risk professionals across the globe. It's time to Connect, Cultivate, and Collaborate with them. [19:43] Booth sales are open now. General registration and speaker registration are also open right now. Marketplace and hospitality badges will be available starting on March 3rd. Links are in this episode's show notes, and be sure to check out RIMS.org for more information. [20:02] Save the dates March 18th and 19th, 2026, for the RIMS Legislative Summit, which will be held in Washington, D.C.! Join us in Washington, D.C. for two days of Congressional meetings, networking, and advocating on behalf of the risk management community. [20:19] Visit RIMS.org/advocacy for more information and to register. Also, check out the prior episode of RIMScast, Episode 378, featuring RIMS General Counsel and Vice President of External Affairs, Mark Prysock, as we discuss the top priorities for RIMS in 2026 and beyond. [20:39] The Second Annual RIMS Texas Regional Conference will be held in San Antonio from August 10th through August 12th. [20:46] The call for submissions for educational sessions is open through March 18th. Check out the link in this episode's show notes and make a pitch! Hopefully, you get selected, and we'll see you in San Antonio! [20:59] Let's Return to Our Interview with 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes! [21:19] Justin asks how Randy delivers good or bad news to a high-level executive. Randy says he was gifted by his radio announcer father with a very calm demeanor. You're delivering what it is, based on some fact. Randy has had to deliver a lot of crazy facts over the years. [22:29] Early in his career, Randy had a financial institution client. They had some major issues. He was standing outside the boardroom, ready to go in to tell them whether they had insurance or not. They did not. He was on the phone with London, working out some coverage. [23:28] He got the message while he was in there that they had managed to land something for the client, so he could pivot. His colleagues said they couldn't believe how calm he had been, going in. [24:11] Randy says it's best to set the landscape with executives before extra risk is taken, showing alternatives and strategy, so if something happens, it was foreseen, you were just unlucky in that year. [24:53] If you hadn't done the front-end work and gotten everybody onboard to see why it was the right strategy, then the news of unanticipated issues gets a lot harder to deliver. [25:04] There's a lot of front-end work to do. To drop bad news on people without any prep is going to be a lot harder. Being transparent and on the same page, especially with finance people, makes communication easy. This flows up to the CFO and higher. Set the foundation. [25:51] Randy has 100s of people focused on data centers. They have analysts and use AI for some things. There are people from the financial institution vertical, construction, operations, cyber, AI, energy, and renewal. They gather together. It's multidisciplinary, under one umbrella. [27:05] Randy says his leadership style is collaborative. He tries to lift the whole team, orchestrating how it comes together. He lets them have the success they deserve. Randy is a strong proponent of mentorship. It's the secret to his success. [27:50] Randy has worked with some people for his entire career, as clients, colleagues, or competitors, and he stays connected with them. Hundreds of people fit that profile. [28:17] Another Quick Break! The Spencer Educational Foundation's Risk Manager on Campus application period will open on April 1st, 2026, and it will close on June 30th. Grant awardees, colleges, and universities are typically notified in September. [28:43] The Course Development Grant application deadline for Interval Number 2 will be on June 15th, 2026. Award notifications will be sent out in late July. [28:57] General Grant applications will open on May 1st, 2026, and the application deadline is July 30th. Internship Grant applications open on August 15th and close on October 15th. [29:10] Links to each of these grants are in this episode's show notes. Visit SpencerEd.org for more information. [29:18] Let's Conclude Our Interview with 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes. [29:39] Randy worked with Pat Ryan to lead the Risk Management and Financial Guarantee Team for Chicago's 2016 Summer Olympic bid. Randy says when Pat retired as CEO of Aon, he took on this project to head Chicago's Olympic bid. He invited Randy to the project. [30:19] In an Olympic Bid, the city has to sign a Host City Agreement that says they will take on the risks of delivering the Games. There's an effective financial guarantee. Globally, it is often done on a country level. That's not how it operates in the U.S. [30:43] Pat and Randy had to figure out how to de-risk the games so that what the city's guarantee would look like was limited because the team had built insurance and risk management. On the construction side, they had contractors take on risks. [31:03] They created a de-risking model. It was the first time anyone had done that for an Olympic Games. Chicago was not successful, but the work the team did on de-risking the Games became the model that a lot of Western cities took on for their Olympic bids. [32:03] Randy says you start with a line-item budget that the bid team puts out. A big part of it is the construction of venues, living spaces, technology, including massive broadcast bandwidth, tens of thousands of volunteers to transport and train, and secure. [32:35] Randy says they took the line-item budget and worked on each item separately, to create certainty and shrink the distance between certain and uncertain, so that when they put the umbrella guarantee on top of it, it touched a lot fewer things and had a lot more certainty. [33:01] The biggest thing the umbrella policy covered is delivering the Games on a certain date. No delays. All the costs are front-end. If, for some reason, the Games don't happen: terrorism, global war, or pandemic, you're stuck with all those front-end costs. It's the worst case. [33:39] The closer you get to the event, the more risk you have. Then you have the three or four weeks when you're delivering the Olympic Games and the Paralympic Games. [33:49] Randy says it was interesting. They did a white paper on it, "How to De-risk Games." It was done to encourage cities not to be afraid to host the Games. [34:19] Randy says, over the years, when cities in North America are bidding for Winter or Summer, they reach out, and Pat and Randy give them the template. San Francisco, LA, Boston, and Calgary all asked for it. [34:51] Most of the people on the Bid Committee were on the City level. It was Mayor Daley, his staff, and 50 aldermen. Randy says, We gave them lots of transparency into what we were doing. [35:16] Randy says they provided 1,200 pages of material, in 3-ring binders, for each of the aldermen. They also put all the text on discs to search electronically. Later, an alderman called Randy, angry because he couldn't listen to the disc in his car. Randy explained it to him. [3:24] Randy thinks a city should be thankful to host the Olympic Games. They make the city sparkle. The city gets a big influx of outside money. Chicago would have gotten a lot of Federal money. The transportation system would have been upgraded. It would make the city better. [36:49] Randy describes how London and Paris were improved by hosting the Olympic Games. If you're thinking of bidding, it's worth it. Randy wishes Chicago's bid had been successful. [37:33] Justin and Randy comment on the Milan Winter Olympics Opening and Closing Ceremonies. The next Winter Olympics will be on the French side of the Alps. [38:01] Justin says that Chicago is known for its colorful history of notorious characters. [38:45] Justin asks Randy about Project Six. Project Six came out of the Olympic Bid. Seeing corruption in the city government, Randy and a few committee members put together Project Six, referring to the six business leaders who partnered with Elliot Ness to go after Al Capone. [39:44] They set up Project Six as a nonprofit whistleblower organization so people could come to report corruption. They got hundreds of whistleblower tips. They published things and gave information on criminal activity to Federal prosecutors. [40:07] Some things were not criminal but unethical. When the Chicago Cubs were playing in the World Series, public officials paid face value for Cubs tickets instead of the market price. Project Six brought it to the ethics committee, and they changed that practice for tickets. [41:31] Randy says they did not make a lot of friends in public office. Project Six is closed. [41:47] Randy talks about angering a bunch of people in public office. They went after Project Six because they weren't getting whistleblower tips on Republicans. There might have been one Republican commissioner in Chicago. [42:20] Randy says some of the senior people they ruffled went after donors. So it was a better idea to shut it down. It ran for three and a half years. [42:41] Randy says the biggest frustration was how slow things move. It takes years for some convictions to go through. You would like justice to happen faster. Randy hopes that when high-profile people go to prison, others pause to consider. [43:59] Randy gives his advice on what separates a good risk manager or problem solver from a great one. He says not to get too focused on what you did yesterday. Every day, step back and ask, Am I still doing the right stuff? Am I focused on the right thing? [44:26] You have a fixed amount of money to spend to solve your risk problems. You're insuring your buildings for fire, but over time, you've engineered them to be fire-resistant. There is less risk. At the same time, you have AI, cyber risk, and new things that come in. [44:48] Is it better to direct money to solve cyber risk and take on more risk for property? Don't get hung up on what you did yesterday. Stepping back and staying on top of what's happening with the business has never been more important. [45:17] Businesses are transforming before our eyes, and AI is leading the transformation. Make sure you're interacting with your business to stay current on what the business is all about. [46:02] Randy says being at Aon a long time has given him a lot of latitude to do all the things he has done. He can look for new things, cut across the towers that exist and think about risk at the broadest level. [46:40] If you move company to company, you'll step into the new role, fix a few things, and move to the next company. You won't have the latitude to experiment with new things or ask what comes next. You're there because you're needed at that time. [47:07] Randy says, That can be comfortable. But don't get too comfortable and make sure you're staying current. [47:17] We really appreciate you joining us here on the show. I want to wish you congratulations again on the Goodel Award. It's a big honor here at RIMS, and you certainly deserve it. [47:27] I look forward to meeting you in Philadelphia, from May 3rd through the 6th at RISKWORLD! Thank you so much for joining us here on RIMScast, Randy! [47:40] Special thanks again to 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes, for joining us here on RIMSCast! A link to his profile in RIMS Risk Management Magazine's Awards Edition 2025 is in this episode's show notes. [47:57] He's one of our men in Chicago. Check out ChicagoRIMS.org. They have a live event coming up called "Nuclear Verdicts: Live Mock Trial for Evaluating Litigation Risk and Strategy"  at the Aon Center (Chicago), on March 11th. You might see Randy there! [48:14] We've got the Chicago RIMS Annual Golf Outing on September 21st, and the 11th Annual Chicagoland Risk Forum on September 24th at the Old Post Office in Chicago. They're one of our most active and vibrant chapters, so check out those events and visit ChicagoRIMS.org. [48:34] Plug Time! You can sponsor a RIMScast episode for this, our weekly show, or a dedicated episode. Links to sponsored episodes are in the show notes. [49:02] RIMScast has a global audience of risk and insurance professionals, legal professionals, students, business leaders, C-Suite executives, and more. Let's collaborate and help you reach them! Contact pd@rims.org for more information. [49:20] Become a RIMS member and get access to the tools, thought leadership, and network you need to succeed. Visit RIMS.org/membership or email membershipdept@RIMS.org for more information. [49:37] Risk Knowledge is the RIMS searchable content library that provides relevant information for today's risk professionals. Materials include RIMS executive reports, survey findings, contributed articles, industry research, benchmarking data, and more. [49:54] For the best reporting on the profession of risk management, read Risk Management Magazine at RMMagazine.com. It is written and published by the best minds in risk management. [50:08] Justin Smulison is the Business Content Manager at RIMS. Please remember to subscribe to RIMScast on your favorite podcasting app. You can email us at Content@RIMS.org. [50:20] Practice good risk management, stay safe, and thank you again for your continuous support!   Links: RIMS Legislative Summit — March 18-19, 2026 on Capitol Hill, Washington, D.C. | Register now! RISKWORLD 2026 Registration — Open for exhibitors, members, and non-members! Reserve your booth at RISKWORLD 2026! Spencer Educational Foundation — Scholarships and Grants RIMS Texas Regional Conference 2026 Education Content Submission — Deadline March 18, 2026! RIMS-CRO Certificate Program In Advanced Enterprise Risk Management | April ‒ June 2026 Cohort | Led by James Lam RIMS Compensation Survey 2025 — Download Today RIMS Risk Management magazine | Contribute | Awards Edition 2025 RIMS Now RIMS-Certified Risk Management Professional (RIMS-CRMP) | Insights Video Series Featuring Joe Milan! The Strategic and Enterprise Risk Center RIMS Diversity Equity Inclusion Council RIMS-CRMP Story, featuring John Button RIMScast Canada — Episodes Now Live RISK PAC | RIMS Advocacy Upcoming RIMS-CRMP Prep Virtual Workshops: RIMS-CRMP Exam PrepMarch 10‒11 | April 21‒22 | June 9‒10 RIMS-CRMP-FED Exam Prep with AFERM | March 17‒18 Full RIMS-CRMP Prep Course Schedule See the full calendar of RIMS Virtual Workshops RIMS Virtual Workshop – Facilitating Risk-Based Decision Making | March 4‒5 | Register Now Risk Appetite Management | March 25‒26 Claims Management | April 7‒8 Emerging Risks | April 15 | Register Now! 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The Aussie market stumbled today, posting one of its worst sessions in weeks as escalating Middle East tensions unnerved investors. The ASX 200 retreated sharply, weighed down by widespread caution, though the Energy sector provided a rare bright spot. Oil prices soared after reports of a blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, pushing local coal miners higher. In contrast, it was a "sea of red" elsewhere; gold miners slumped despite record bullion prices as investors locked in profits, and Live360 plummeted to its worst level in a year following earnings. Magellan Financial was the undeniable standout, soaring over 20% after announcing a blockbuster $1.6 billion merger with Barrenjoey. All eyes now pivot to Wednesday's critical GDP print. Laura Besarati is a Market Analyst at CommSec. Each episode, she break's down the day's market movements and explains what the numbers really mean. The content in this podcast is prepared, approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 AFSL 238814. The information does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consider the appropriateness of the information before acting and if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

NW China's Ningxia inaugurates massive photovoltaic project on coal-mining subsidence area. China's carbon dioxide emissions per 10,000 yuan of GDP down 5 pct in 2025. China releases national standard system for humanoid robotics and embodied AI. China's sci-tech museums draw over 3.5 mln visits during Spring Festival holiday.

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and U.S. Head of Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss the implications of private credit's exposure to the software industry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Vishwas Patkar: I'm Vishwas Patkar, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Head of Credit Strategy. Vishy Tirupattur: While potential disruption from AI has been a key driver for markets [in the] last few weeks, the focus of investor agenda has been in the software sector. On today's podcast, we will talk about software in the credit markets and its implications. It's Monday, March 2nd at 10am in New York. Vishwas, let's start by understanding how the exposure in software manifests in the credit markets. How does it compare to software, say, in the equity market? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so the software exposure in credit markets is large, and understandably that's why investors are closely watching what's happening with software in the equity market. But what's interesting and important for investors to note is the exposure in credit is very different from what it is in equities. So, for instance, a good chunk of exposure in the credit market is around private issuers. So, we estimate about 80 percent of companies are private in the whole sample set that we looked at. And that's largely a function of the fact that software is not a big part of the more liquid spaces like Investment Grade and High Yield. But it is heavily represented in the more opaque parts of the market, like leveraged loans, CLOs, and, you know, BDCs. So, our analysis found that about 25 percent of BDC portfolios are in software, closely followed by private credit CLOs. And leveraged loan market was about 16 percent. So, that's an important distinction to keep in mind versus the equity market. The second thing I would flag is – because the software sector grew a lot in the loan market through the LBO wave of 2020 and 2021, it has a weaker credit quality skew to it than the overall market. So about 50 percent of borrowers in the sector are rated B - or lower. So, that's the lowest rungs of the rating spectrum. Many of these software deals were underwritten with higher leverage than the broad market. And as a result of that you also have more front-loaded maturities in the sector, which brings the risks of refinancing, if some of this disruption persists. But Vishy, that's a nice segue to you. Over the past couple of years, you looked at the private credit market in depth and that's where I think the exposure we found is the highest in BDCs, you know, which is the public face of private credit. So, in your assessment, what is the risk of software to private credit, given all of the headlines that are popping up? Vishy Tirupattur: Public face of private credit – Vishwas, that's a great line. BDCs – business development corporations for those who are not familiar – are companies that invest in the debt of small and medium sized companies, sourced through non-bank channels. BDCs fund themselves through equity and debt issuance. So, if you look at the portfolios of BDCs to look at their exposure to software, there's a wide variation across the various BDC portfolios. What makes the assessment of these software risks in BDCs challenging is that many of these companies are private companies without the reporting obligations of public companies. So, no earnings reports, no 10-Ks or cues or broadly publicly available financials look at. So, in effect, these companies need to be re underwritten to evaluate which of these companies would be disrupted from AI; and which companies could actually benefit from AI and see their margins expand. So, in the context of BDCs, liability spreads are something we are watching closely. BDC liability spreads have widened but we think more needs to happen there. The clearing levels need to wait for the full resolution of the companies that benefit and that get hurt by disruption that is still awaited. So, we expect credit spreads of BDCs to remain volatile for some time to come. Vishwas Patkar: Okay. So, seems like this is a significant, or at least a non-trivial risk factor for credit markets, given the growth of the sector, leverage, the skew and quality. But Vishy, do you think this could be systemic for risk markets at large? Vishy Tirupattur: So, I do think that this is a significant risk, but I don't think it's a systemic risk. The amount of leverage in BDC is fairly small. About 2x is the kind of leverage. You compare that to the kind of leverage that existed in the financial system before the financial crisis – that's orders of magnitude smaller risk. And also the linkage to the banking system comes through the back leverage provided to the non-bank lenders. But this leverage is substantially risk remote with very high subordination levels. So, my conclusion here is this is a significant risk but not a systemic risk. So let me turn the same question to you, Vishwas. Taking on a sort of historical perspective as well as a macro perspective, how do you see this risk manifesting in the broader credit space? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so I would agree with you Vishy, that we need to see a valuation reset. We think spreads should go wider because of disruption concerns, even if they affect a relatively narrow part of the market. But a lot of that's happening against issuance that's rising. But I would say the risk of systemic concerns really emerging is relatively low. if you look at historical cycles where credit has been the weak link in the economy, those are typically characterized by a lot of corporate re-leveraging. So, think about the late 1990s or from 2004 to 2007 or the early 2000-teens. These are all cycles where corporates were being very aggressive, adding a lot of debt. And you know, when the economy slowed, credit became the source of some default and downgrade concerns. We haven't really seen that type of credit cycle play out at all in the past few years. If you look at corporate debt to GDP, for example, it's gone down each of the last five years. Balance sheet corporate leverage has been flat or actually gone lower in spots. M&A activity, which is usually a good indicator of corporate aggressiveness, still remains below trend. So, I think we have had a fairly restrained credit cycle where in place fundamentals are quite strong. And that's why I think the systemic contagion from any credit spread weakness, I think could be relatively muted. Vishy Tirupattur: So, the key takeaway from us is that software and credit is a significant risk but is not quite systemic risk. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this news-style episode, Simon and Dan break down Citrini Research’s The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis—a “note from the future” dated June 30, 2028 that frames the most bullish AI adoption path as a surprisingly bearish outcome for the real economy. They walk through the core feedback loop: companies deploy AI to boost productivity and margins, layoffs rise (especially in white-collar roles), consumer spending weakens, and the cycle reinforces itself—creating what the piece calls “ghost GDP,” where productivity climbs but wages and demand don’t keep up. From there, the duo digs into the sectors Citrini argues get hit first and hardest: SaaS (seat contraction + customers using AI as renewal leverage), the intermediation layer (agents shopping travel, subscriptions, insurance, delivery, and more), and even payment rails as AI agents chase lower-cost settlement via stablecoins. They also connect the dots to private credit and insurance flywheels—where mark-to-model portfolios can look stable until forced selling and capital needs expose stress—and what rising unemployment could mean for housing in once “prime” white-collar markets. Tickers discussed: V, MA, AXP, DFS, PYPL, AMZN, WMT, EXPE, UBER, DASH, SHOP, GOOGL, PLTR, TRI, OWL, APO, BN, KKR, CRM, ADBE, AIG Citrini research report Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

【98有聲書房】開張，訂閱收藏News98精選有聲書：https://apple.co/44KcuRo主持人：阮慕驊 來賓：中央大學台經中心 吳大任教授 主題：2月消費者信心指數微跌 台灣GDP今年7%可期？節目時間：週一至週五 5:00pm-7:00pm本集播出日期：2026.03.02

Today's Briefed Special is a longer conversation from our series Europe Talks Back.The European Union is one of the world's most developed regions; yet deep territorial inequalities persist. According to Eurostat, GDP per capita can vary threefold within the same member state, with capital regions often earning twice as much as the rest of the country.In this episode of Europe Talks Back, produced with ESPON, Léa Marchal explores why many small and medium-sized cities are losing ground — and whether this trend can be reversed.Joined by Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Professor at the London School of Economics and Chair of the High-Level Group on the Future of EU Cohesion Policy, the discussion looks at demographic decline, policy blind spots, and the limits of current cohesion funding.Are these cities doomed to fall behind - or can smarter investment and stronger local institutions help them thrive again?Join us on our journey through the events that shape the European continent and the European Union.A podcast by Europod, in cooperation with ESPON, an EU-funded programme that bridges research with policies“This podcast series is cofunded by ESPON. However, the opinions and views expressed are solely those of the authors. ESPON can't be held responsible for them.” Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Amid widening conflict in the Middle East, our economist team held an online briefing first thing Monday to tackle some of the key questions that clients have been asking. In this edited clip from that briefing, you'll hear the team tackle issues, including:The extent of disruption to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for oil and gas prices;The point at which rising oil prices would force central banks to slow or abandon policy easing;The dollar as a safe haven currency in this time of geopolitical upheaval;How this conflict could shape the economic outlook for the GCC economies;The likelihood that a change of leadership in Tehran could open the way for a deal with the US.With: Jennifer McKeown (Chief Global Economist), William Jackson (Chief EM Economist), David Oxley (Chief Climate & Commodities Economist), Jonas Goltermann (Deputy Chief Markets Economist). Note: This client briefing was held at 1000 GMT/1800 SGT on Monday, 2nd MarchSee our dedicated Iran conflict page below for more key analysis, and contact us at podcast@capitaleconomics.com to find out about access. https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflict

Năm 2025, Mỹ tiếp tục là thị trường xuất khẩu lớn nhất của Việt Nam, đạt kỷ lục với 151,85 tỉ đô la (chiếm 32% tổng trị giá xuất khẩu của Việt Nam). Trung Quốc tiếp tục là thị trường cung cấp hàng hóa lớn nhất cho Việt Nam, đạt kim ngạch 183 tỉ đô la (chiếm gần 41% trong tổng trị giá nhập khẩu của Việt Nam) (1). Trị giá trị xuất khẩu của Việt Nam sang Mỹ tỉ lệ thuận với trị giá nhập khẩu từ Trung Quốc.  Trước sức ép của Washington, Hà Nội phải thắt chặt kiểm soát để ngăn hàng Trung Quốc đội lốt Việt Nam xuất khẩu sang Mỹ. Theo tổng kết của AP về thuế đối ứng của tổng thống Donald Trump năm 2025, Trung Quốc, từng là nguồn nhập khẩu lớn nhất của Mỹ, hiện giờ đứng thứ ba, sau Canada và Mêhicô. Tổng giá trị hàng hóa từ Trung Quốc nhập khẩu vào Mỹ giảm gần 25% trong ba quý đầu năm 2025. Không thể làm mất lòng Mỹ - thị trường chiếm đến 30% GDP của Việt Nam Ngay đầu nhiệm kỳ 2, tổng thống Trump siết chặt đầu tư và thương mại từ Trung Quốc, nhắm đến cả những nước bị coi là “sân sau” của Bắc Kinh, trong đó có Việt Nam. Kinh tế gia cấp cao Nguyễn Trinh của Natixis nhận định trong phóng sự “Vì sao Việt Nam phải ký hiệp định thương mại với Trump?” của Bloomberg ngày 11/07 : “Trong nhiệm kỳ 1.0 của Trump, Việt Nam nổi lên là bên hưởng lợi lớn nhất từ ​​căng thẳng Mỹ - Trung. Việt Nam trở thành điểm đến thu hút các nhà đầu tư muốn tiếp cận thị trường Mỹ, nơi chênh lệch thuế quan giữa Trung Quốc và Việt Nam ngày càng lớn hơn (...) Chính sách thời Trump 2.0 rất khác ở chỗ thay vì chỉ nhắm vào Trung Quốc, điều mà Việt Nam đã được hưởng lợi, giờ đây chúng ta lại thấy thuế quan áp dụng trực tiếp đối với cả Việt Nam”. Đọc thêmBị Mỹ đánh thuế 46% : Việt Nam trả giá vì làm “sân sau” cho Trung Quốc ? Chính phủ Việt Nam bị sốc vì không nghĩ đến mức thuế lên tới 46% được tổng thống Trump công bố trong “Ngày giải phóng” 02/04/2025 cho dù đã dự đoán một số mức thuế theo xu hướng chung. Mức thuế đối ứng 46% sẽ khiến Việt Nam mất tính cạnh tranh, tác động đến xuất khẩu chiếm tới 86% GDP, trong khi thị trường Mỹ chiếm 30% GDP của Việt Nam, “giúp người dân thoát nghèo”, theo nhận định của John Boudeau, phóng viên của Bloomberg tại thành phố Hồ Chí Minh. Trang Fortune Herald nhận định ngày 30/12 rằng “thương mại với Hoa Kỳ đã đóng vai trò như một bậc thang trên con đường hiện đại hóa kinh tế của Việt Nam”. Việt Nam là một trong những chính phủ đầu tiên liên hệ với Nhà Trắng để đàm phán. Trong buổi họp báo ngày 10/04, người phát ngôn bộ Ngoại Giao Phạm Thu Hằng phát biểu : “Trên tinh thần đối tác chiến lược toàn diện giữa hai nước, Việt Nam sẽ cùng Mỹ tiến hành đàm phán về một thỏa thuận thương mại đối ứng trên cơ sở tôn trọng lẫn nhau nhằm đạt được giải pháp thỏa đáng hướng đến thương mại công bằng, bền vững và đáp ứng được lợi ích của người dân và doanh nghiệp của hai nước”. Và Việt Nam là quốc gia đầu tiên ở châu Á đạt được thỏa thuận với chính quyền Mỹ, với mức 20%, cùng với nhiều lời hứa giảm thâm hụt thương mại bằng cách mua những sản phẩm có giá trị lớn của Mỹ (máy bay, khí tự nhiên hóa lỏng LNG, nông phẩm…). Việt Nam không thể giảm phụ thuộc vào hàng hóa Trung Quốc Tuy nhiên, một trong những điểm bất đồng lớn nhất trong các cuộc đàm phán là Mỹ yêu cầu Việt Nam siết chặt hơn nữa các biện pháp chống gian lận thương mại và ngăn chặn việc hàng hóa Trung Quốc trung chuyển và đóng gói lại ở Việt Nam để né tránh thuế quan cao hơn. Theo tính toán của Chad Bow, Viện Kinh tế Quốc tế Peterson, thuế quan Mỹ áp dụng đối với hàng nhập khẩu từ Trung Quốc hiện lên tới 47,5%. Còn hàng hóa Việt Nam bị Mỹ đánh thuế nhập khẩu 20% nhưng phải còn có một mức thuế khác lên tới 40% được áp dụng đối với hàng trung chuyển, chủ yếu là Trung Quốc. Nhà báo John Boudeau của Bloomberg nhận định : Việc này vô cùng khó khăn đối với Việt Nam bởi vì rất nhiều nhà máy ở đây không chỉ dựa vào linh kiện, nguyên vật liệu, mà còn dựa vào máy móc đến từ các nước như Trung Quốc. “Việt Nam trở thành nơi trung chuyển hàng hóa Trung Quốc trước khi hướng sang Mỹ”. Điều này được trang Nikkei Asia phản ánh trong phóng sự điều tra đăng ngày 23/12/2025 về cửa khẩu Móng Cái, ngày càng nhộn nhịp, sầm uất với nhiều công trình hạ tầng được xây dựng từ năm 2017, khi chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ-Trung bắt đầu. Hoạt động này gia tăng mạnh hơn trong năm 2025 : “Khối lượng container thông qua Móng Cái tăng vọt. Dữ liệu do ban quản lý cầu Bắc Luân 2 tổng hợp cho thấy, tính đến ngày 06/07/2025, 840.000 tấn hàng hóa đã qua biên giới, tăng 43% so với cùng kỳ năm 2024. (…) Giá trị xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc sang Việt Nam đã tăng mạnh trong bối cảnh thuế quan cao của Mỹ, cũng như xuất khẩu của Việt Nam sang Mỹ. Trong khi đó, xuất khẩu trực tiếp từ Trung Quốc sang Mỹ lại trì trệ”. Thống kê mới nhất cho năm 2025 được Cục Hải quan công bố ngày 25/12 có thể cho thấy một phần hiện tượng này : “Nhóm hàng công nghệ cao có trị giá lớn nhất, đóng góp nhiều nhất vào tăng xuất nhập khẩu. Cụ thể đối với xuất khẩu ba nhóm hàng có trị giá cao nhất là máy vi tính, sản phẩm điện tử và linh kiện ; điện thoại các loại và linh kiện ; máy móc thiết bị, dụng cụ, phụ tùng, tổng trị giá là 222 tỉ đô la, chiếm 47% trị giá xuất khẩu cả nước. Đối với nhập khẩu, ba nhóm hàng trên đạt 221 tỉ đô la, chiếm 49% trị giá nhập khẩu của cả nước, tăng 54,3 tỉ đô la so với năm 2024”. Đọc thêmĐại chiến thuế quan Mỹ-Trung, « cây tre » Việt Nam biết ngả về đâu Trong nghiên cứu của ngân hàng ING đăng ngày 03/07/2025, tác giả Deepali Bhargava, trưởng bộ phận nghiên cứu khu vực châu Á - Thái Bình Dương, nhận định : “Đây là một sự thay đổi đáng kể so với năm 2017 (trước khi xảy ra chiến tranh thương mại Mỹ-Trung), khi xuất khẩu máy móc và thiết bị điện tử của Trung Quốc sang Việt Nam đạt 26,9 tỉ đô la và chiếm khoảng 16,6% tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu của Trung Quốc sang Việt Nam, trong khi xuất khẩu máy móc và thiết bị điện tử của Việt Nam sang thị trường Mỹ chỉ đạt 5,9 tỉ đô la và chiếm khoảng 5,3% tổng kim ngạch xuất khẩu sang Mỹ”. Sự bùng nổ này, có thể một phần là do nhu cầu nội địa gia tăng ở Việt Nam, nhưng cho thấy rõ hoạt động trung chuyển đáng kể, theo bà Deepali Bhargava :  Nhiều công ty sử dụng Việt Nam làm điểm lắp ráp linh kiện nhập khẩu từ Trung Quốc hoặc gia tăng đủ giá trị cho sản phẩm để thay đổi xuất xứ một cách hợp pháp. Tuy nhiên, một số công ty chỉ dán nhãn “Sản xuất tại Việt Nam” lên hàng sản xuất tại Trung Quốc, và đây là hành vi bất hợp pháp nhưng khó truy vết. (…) Việc phân biệt giữa xuất khẩu giá trị gia tăng và xuất khẩu trung chuyển sẽ là yếu tố then chốt trong việc đánh giá tác động tổng thể đến xuất khẩu của Việt Nam, mặc dù chưa rõ trung chuyển có nghĩa là như thế nào. Vẫn theo nghiên cứu của ING, mặc dù hàng hóa trung chuyển không trực tiếp đóng góp vào GDP của Việt Nam nhưng tạo ra hoạt động kinh tế và doanh thu thông qua các dịch vụ như kho bãi, xử lý và vận chuyển, góp phần vào lĩnh vực dịch vụ. “Ngoại giao cây tre” trong thương mại với Mỹ và Trung Quốc Việc giảm lưu lượng trung chuyển có thể gây bất lợi cho Việt Nam trong ngắn hạn. Tuy nhiên, mức độ chênh lệch thuế quan của Mỹ, 20% đối với hàng nhập khẩu của Việt Nam và 40% đối với hàng trung chuyển, buộc Hà Nội phải tăng cường các biện pháp để bảo vệ lợi ích từ xu hướng dịch chuyển chuỗi cung ứng mà Việt Nam đang được hưởng. Mức thuế 40% đối với hàng trung chuyển còn cho thấy những hạn chế của ngành công nghiệp Việt Nam, theo nghiên cứu của ING : “Mặc dù rất khó để đánh giá được trực tiếp mức độ trung chuyển, nhưng sự yếu kém trong sản xuất của ngành công nghiệp chế tạo trong nước, bất chấp tăng trưởng xuất khẩu mạnh mẽ, cho thấy giá trị gia tăng nội địa còn hạn chế. Để đối phó với tình trạng này, bộ Thương Mại Việt Nam đã ban hành chỉ thị trấn áp việc vận chuyển quá cảnh hàng hóa bất hợp pháp sang Hoa Kỳ và các đối tác thương mại khác bằng cách tập trung hóa việc cấp giấy chứng nhận xuất xứ điện tử”. Ở quy mô rộng hơn, thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính cho rằng thỏa thuận thuế quan với Mỹ là một cách để “nâng cao chuỗi giá trị”, vừa là yêu cầu vừa là cơ hội. Mức thuế trung chuyển 40% buộc Việt Nam đẩy nhanh tốc độ chuỗi cung ứng trong nước, cố giảm phụ thuộc vào linh kiện Trung Quốc bằng cách xây dựng lâu dài ngành công nghiệp chất lượng cao, phát triển công nghệ số. Đây cũng là những mục tiêu trong kế hoạch để Việt Nam trở thành nước có thu nhập cao vào năm 2045. Đọc thêmChủ tịch Trung Quốc Tập Cận Bình công du Việt Nam kêu gọi tăng cường quan hệ thương mại song phương Ngoài ra, Việt Nam tiếp tục mở rộng mạng lưới đối tác, thị trường xuất khẩu để giảm thiểu sự phụ thuộc quá mức do chính sách kinh tế theo chủ nghĩa dân tộc. Cách tiếp cận đa cực được thể hiện trong các thỏa thuận với Liên Hiệp Châu Âu, Ấn Độ, Nga, thậm chí cả các nước vùng Vịnh, châu Phi. Tuy nhiên, trước mắt, Trung Quốc sẽ tiếp tục là đối tác thương mại lớn nhất của Việt Nam, theo giải thích của bà Nguyễn Trinh, ngân hàng Natixis :  Điều đó giống như yêu cầu Mêhicô ngừng quan hệ thương mại với Hoa Kỳ. Mặc dù Mỹ là thị trường lớn nhất của Việt Nam, nhưng Trung Quốc lại là yếu tố địa-chính trị quan trọng nhất. Trung Quốc nằm ngay sát Việt Nam. Hai nước có mối quan hệ rất phức tạp mà cả hai phải hết sức thận trọng và đây là yếu tố hàng đầu trong quan hệ đối ngoại song phương. Giao thương giữa hai nước sẽ tiếp tục gia tăng với tuyến đường sắt nối Vân Nam (Trung Quốc) với Lào Cai đi qua Hà Nội và đến cảng Hải Phòng. Việt Nam sẽ tiếp tục vận dụng “ngoại giao cây tre” để điều chỉnh quan hệ thương mại với Mỹ và Trung Quốc. Năm 2025, tổng trị giá xuất nhập khẩu của hai thị trường Trung Quốc và Mỹ là 422 tỉ đô la, chiếm tỷ trọng 46% tổng trị giá xuất nhập khẩu của Việt Nam. (1) Theo thông tin Cục Hải Quan (bộ Tài Chính), được báo Thanh Niên trích dẫn ngày 25/12/2025, “Xuất khẩu sang Mỹ đạt kỷ lục gần 152 tỉ USD”.

On Episode 811 of The Core Report, financial journalist Govindraj Ethiraj talks to George Koshy, CEO of LetsSolv as well as Vivek Kumar, Economist at QuantEco Research.SHOW NOTES(00:00) The Take(05:44) Dalal Street on weak footing post US-Israel attack on Iran(07:51) A new GDP series is out and last quarter growth is at 7.8%. What changes?(16:34) The Emirates are pulling out all stops to make tourists and passengers feel safe(22:27) OPEC is raising oil output in anticipation of supply challenges: Macro impact on India.(24:26) New SEBI Notification on Gold and Silver(25:24) February GST CollectionsRegister for India Finance and Innovation Forum 2026https://tinyurl.com/IFIFCOREFor more of our coverage check out ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠thecore.in⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to our Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow us on:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linkedin⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ |⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Youtube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

John Carney clarifies that recent price spikes were driven by volatile service sector margins rather than trade policies, suggesting that underlying inflation remains under control. The conversation transitions into a confident political outlook, noting that a unified Republican leadership and a rebounding GDP create a strong tailwind for the administration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happens when AI makes intelligence essentially free — and unlimited energy plus humanoid robots make physical labour free too? The economic models we've built our entire civilisation on stop working. In this episode I sit down with Cern Basher — a CFA charterholder, CIO of Brilliant Advice, and one of the sharpest minds at the intersection of AI, Bitcoin, and macroeconomics. Originally from New Zealand, Cern has built a massive following for his work connecting the dots between exponential technology and the future of money. We go deep on his thesis that AI and Bitcoin are two sides of the same coin — AI collapses the cost of intelligence (deflationary), and Bitcoin provides a monetary system that can't be inflated away. We explore Jason Lowery's Softwar thesis (which the US Department of Defence placed under security review), why AI agents will naturally adopt Bitcoin for autonomous transactions, and Cern's provocative argument that infinite output multiplied by zero price equals zero GDP — making our most fundamental economic metric meaningless. If you've ever wondered what the economy actually looks like when abundance replaces scarcity, this is the conversation. In this episode we discuss: Why AI and Bitcoin are "two sides of the same coin" Jason Lowery's Softwar thesis and why the DoD took notice How AI is already contributing more to US GDP growth than consumer spending Why AI agents need Bitcoin — permissionless, no KYC, no intermediaries Cern's "death of GDP" thesis — infinite supply × zero price = zero GDP The dematerialisation of physical products (cameras, maps, books, money) What this means for New Zealand and small economies How abundance economics breaks traditional supply and demand Links mentioned: Cern Basher on X: https://x.com/CernBasher Brilliant Advice: https://www.brilliantadvice.net Cern's GDP post: https://x.com/CernBasher/status/1913993658572984440 Jason Lowery's Softwar thesis: https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/153030

Gold just broke above $5,100 — and almost no one is talking about it. While politicians argue over tariffs, the real story is accelerating stagflation. GDP growth collapsed from 4.4% to 1.4%. Core PCE inflation is rising again. The Fed is openly debating rate cuts while inflation runs 50% above target.

What happens when outward success no longer matches your inner truth?

Chris Markowski discusses the realities of the financial world, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic context over short-term market fluctuations. He analyzes recent GDP figures, compares historical economic performance, and critiques government regulations that hinder growth. Markowski also shares his thoughts on the character of the economy, the waste of talent, and proposes solutions for improvement, including tax reform and regulatory changes. The conversation highlights the role of private equity and credit in the current financial landscape, urging listeners to be aware of the risks involved.

"Instead of asking what's broken, we shine a spotlight on what's already good in people's lives" - Elena Fairley, Mission Asset Fund & Crankstart Foundation In part 5 of our Highlight Episodes from our Covid-19 Special Series, we reveal the hidden fault lines cracking San Francisco's foundation — from a downtown office vacancy rate that's the highest in the nation to a business tax structure so complex that one company slashed its city bill by 88% simply by going remote.  You will learn how local governments in San Jose and San Rafael reinvented their operations overnight, how Mission Asset Fund is rebuilding financial access for undocumented immigrants through community-centered lending circles and micro-loans, and why the city's much-debated office-to-housing conversions remain largely theoretical.  We also decode the 2022 ballot propositions that put the future of affordable housing, homelessness oversight, and public libraries directly in voters' hands. KEY TAKEAWAYS / TIMESTAMPS [01:23] - Local governments forced to digitize overnight: lessons from San Jose & San Rafael. [13:04] - 72% of SF's GDP was concentrated in the downtown core — here's what happened to it. [20:01] - The tax loophole that's incentivizing companies to quietly abandon San Francisco. [28:15] - Office-to-housing conversions: why costs, developers, and city hall are all pointing in different directions. [35:10] - How lending circles are rebuilding financial lives for San Francisco's most invisible residents. GUESTS Fifteen thought leaders shape this conversation, including Joaquin Torres, San Francisco's Assessor-Recorder, who led a $92M economic development office; Jeff Bellisario of the Bay Area Council Economic Institute, whose research tracks the 10 trends driving post-COVID recovery; and Jose Quinonez, CEO of Mission Asset Fund, a MacArthur Fellow pioneering financial inclusion for immigrant communities. RESOURCES & LINKS Covid-19 Series highlights, Part 5 guest profiles: Covid-19's Impact on our communities Special Series Resource Directory  SUPPORT VOICES OF THE COMMUNITY Donate Now to support the making of shows like this one Sign up for Voices of the Community's Newsletter  Subscribe to Voices of the Community on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or YouTube so you never miss an episode — and if this conversation moved you, share it with one person who cares about the future of your city.

When you hear "meal deal" you probably think of fast-food chains, like McDonald's. But as daily life grows more unaffordable, a new tier of chain restaurants are adopting similar options to hang onto their cash-strapped regulars. It's why Panera just launched a new $10 value meal, and analysts expect other fast-casual joints to follow suit. Plus: Data center construction was up nearly 30% in 2025 but had a limited impact on GDP; buy now, pay later for rent payment comes at a price; we discuss the week's economic headlines.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

When you hear "meal deal" you probably think of fast-food chains, like McDonald's. But as daily life grows more unaffordable, a new tier of chain restaurants are adopting similar options to hang onto their cash-strapped regulars. It's why Panera just launched a new $10 value meal, and analysts expect other fast-casual joints to follow suit. Plus: Data center construction was up nearly 30% in 2025 but had a limited impact on GDP; buy now, pay later for rent payment comes at a price; we discuss the week's economic headlines.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Jim Schowalter is the former MMB Commissioner. He joins Blois Olson to discuss the budget forecast for the state of Minnesota. Blois asks about the relevance of macroeconomic trends/data like GDP and unemployment numbers. Jim says that the employment numbers are concerning for the future and that the numbers are a little weaker than last year. Blois references some economic factors he noticed during the Great Recession and asks Jim about the operationality of the budget team. They also discuss the uncertainty around the gubernatorial race/potential elect and how its impacting the state government now.

Last Tuesday Trump gave his 1 hour and 47 minute State of the Union speech to Congress. While most was the theatrical clown show that has come to define SOTU speeches, with lemming like Congresspeople jumping up and clapping at every fragment of sentence, the first 30 minutes or so was about how great the US economy was doing—filled with misrepresentations and outright lies about the US economy's current condition.  Here's the real not to pretty picture about Jobs, Inflation, GDP, stock markets, taxes, deficits and debt, and of course tariffs.

Trump claims we have the hottest economy in the world and the greatest turnaround in history, but the numbers tell a completely different story—GDP growth actually slowed under his watch, the stock market is the worst performer globally, and he's ignoring the real crisis ahead: a sovereign debt catastrophe that will make 2008 look like a warm-up act.This episode is sponsored by Samsara. - This episode is sponsored by Samsara. Head to https://samsara.com/gold to request a free demo and see how Samsara brings visibility and safety to your operations.This episode is also sponsored by Function. Own your health for $365 a year. That's a dollar a day. Learn more and join using my link. Visit https://www.functionhealth.com/peter and use gift code PETER25 for a $25 credit toward your membership.Peter Schiff delivers a scathing critique of Trump's State of the Union address, systematically debunking what he calls numerous economic lies and misrepresentations. Schiff argues that Trump's claims about achieving the "hottest economy in the world" and a "historic economic turnaround" are completely false, pointing out that GDP growth actually slowed from 2.8% under Biden's final year to 2.4% in Trump's first year. He criticizes Trump's housing policy of keeping prices artificially high while suppressing mortgage rates, calling it the same failed approach that led to the 2008 financial crisis, and disputes claims about record-breaking tax cuts, inflation solutions, and stock market performance.Beyond exposing what he sees as outright fabrications, Schiff condemns Trump's economic policies as fundamentally socialist, including the ban on Wall Street buying single-family homes, government intervention in power plant construction, and various spending programs disguised as tax cuts. He warns that these policies will accelerate inflation and fiscal crisis, predicting that the resulting economic collapse will be blamed on Republicans and capitalism, paving the way for Democratic victories and more socialist policies. Schiff urges listeners to protect themselves by investing in gold, silver, and foreign stocks, noting that gold mining stocks are hitting new highs ahead of the metals themselves, which he sees as a bullish leading indicator.Chapters:00:00 Show Intro Montage00:55 State of the Union Setup03:36 Housing Prices and Rates10:24 Stock Market Bragging15:54 Economy Claims and Inflation31:10 Gas and Economic Bragging32:48 Tariffs Supreme Court and Trade Reality35:56 Taxes Entitlements and Price Claims39:26 Healthcare Drugs and Anti Socialism Rants53:05 Fiscal Cliff and Gold StrategyFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#Finance #Economics #GoldOur Sponsors:* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Since the 1960s, global GDP has been rapidly rising and living standards have reached record highs. But something else has been rocketing up too – carbon emissions. For years, scientists and economists have been asking: is it possible to grow without heating and polluting the Earth? And as the climate becomes more unstable, the issue is only becoming more urgent. Madeleine Finlay hears from two economists arguing for a change in how we measure a country's success. Nick Stern is professor of economics and government at the London School of Economics and an advocate of green growth, an approach to growth that prioritises green industry. Jason Hickel is a political economist and professor at the Autonomous University of Barcelona who advocates degrowth, shrinking parts of the economy that do not advance our social and ecological goals.. Help support our independent journalism at theguardian.com/sciencepod

Broadcast live from iConnections Global Alts in South Beach, Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Dan Greenhaus of Solus Alternative Asset Management and later Vincent Daniel to discuss a sharp, risk-off market move tied to the increasingly financialized AI buildout. They review weakness across private credit and alternative lenders after reports of difficulty placing debt to fund CoreWeave's data center, spilling over into names like Blue Owl and into large alternative managers, banks, and high-profile stocks like IBM, which suffers its worst day in decades. The group debates how a viral AI “thought experiment” amplified uncertainty about near-term industry disruption, the circular quid-pro-quo dynamics of AI financing and chip demand, and whether market valuations offer any cushion if the AI narrative falters. With Nvidia reporting the next day, they focus on expectations for growth and margins, the risk that competition could compress gross margins and re-rate the stock, and the broader question of whether AI success could drive major white-collar job losses, “ghost GDP,” and policy responses. The conversation closes with Vinnie describing investor “what if” fears around AI's impact on employment and fee-based industries. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

It's becoming increasingly obvious that Trump's mountain of broken promises, radical foreign policy decisions and unorthodox economic policies are causing deep damage to his MAGA brand.Last week the Supreme Court, with three Trump appointees, ruled against Trump's use of IEEPA to issue tariffs.The court's ruling was only one of many failures for Trump last week as newly revised jobs data showed a major contraction in the labor market last year. The trade deficit in 2025 showed little improvement despite Trump's widespread use of tariffs and the fourth quarter GDP reading was well below expectations.According to multiple polls Americans have tired of Trump's harsh immigration policies, and military threats to foreign countries. Most voters have no interest in conquering Greenland, crushing Cuba, managing Venezuela or invading Iran.Grocery prices and utility bills remain elevated while Trump gaslights the American public insisting that costs for everything have dropped dramatically. Health insurance premiums for millions of Americans have dramatically increased while SNAP and Medicaid benefits have been cut.Meanwhile the president remains obsessed with his gigantic White House ballroom and plans for an oversized monumental arch built in his honor.The glorious leader has lost support among nearly every demographic except for his cultish base of supporters. There are even signs that diehard MAGA fans are losing faith.Underneath all of the spin more sinister details surrounding Trump's possible involvement with Jeffrey Epstein's many heinous crimes and sex trafficking operation remains.Fox News is desperate to keep the Trump myth alive either by ignoring stories that make the president look bad or spending excessive amounts of coverage on segments that aren't political.One sign of the network's panicked approach was the fact that Barack Obama's name appeared 74 times in the transcripts last week. No kidding. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit decodingfoxnews.substack.com/subscribe

Some Canadian clips and synchronicities with the latest hockey losses, CBC and the GDP damage control, PEI in trouble,   DND hiring expert foreigners, CBC showing people wanting to go to Mexico, paid protestors pushing back against separation. MRI's in Canada compared to a state in the USA.   We get esoteric with a time travel cover up, Atlantis, Gold and Cuba, Grails and Arks of the Covenant - electrostatic capacitors, Black Vault hacked?, Finland playing with wireless electricity, El Mencho and some 'trust the plan'.   MK Artichoke back in the news with Jabs, while doctors are baffled in Aussie land with a massive cancer increase. Actually they say it's from 'environmental factors'.   To gain access to the second half of show and our Plus feed for audio and podcast please clink the link http://www.grimericaoutlawed.ca/support.   For second half of video (when applicable and audio) go to our Substack and Subscribe. https://grimericaoutlawed.substack.com/ or to our Locals  https://grimericaoutlawed.locals.com/ or Rokfin www.Rokfin.com/Grimerica Patreon https://www.patreon.com/grimericaoutlawed   Support the show directly: https://open.spotify.com/show/2punSyd9Cw76ZtvHxMKenI?si=ImKxfMHgQZ-oshl499O4dQ&nd=1&dlsi=4c25fa9c78674de3 Watch or Listen on Spotify https://grimericacbd.com/ CBD / THC Tinctures and Gummies https://grimerica.ca/support-2/ Our Adultbrain Audiobook Podcast and Website: www.adultbrain.ca Our Audiobook Youtube Channel:  https://www.youtube.com/@adultbrainaudiobookpublishing/videos Check out our next trip/conference/meetup - Contact at the Cabin www.contactatthecabin.com Other affiliated shows: www.grimerica.ca The OG Grimerica Show Join the chat / hangout with a bunch of fellow Grimericans  Https://t.me.grimerica grimerica.ca/chats   Discord Chats Darren's book www.acanadianshame.ca Eh-List Podcast and site: https://eh-list.ca/ Eh-List YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheEh-List www.Rokfin.com/Grimerica Our channel on free speech Rokfin Leave a review on iTunes and/or Stitcher: https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/grimerica-outlawed http://www.stitcher.com/podcast/grimerica-outlawed Sign up for our newsletter http://www.grimerica.ca/news SPAM Graham = and send him your synchronicities, feedback, strange experiences and psychedelic trip reports!! graham@grimerica.com InstaGRAM https://www.instagram.com/the_grimerica_show_podcast/  Purchase swag, with partial proceeds donated to the show www.grimerica.ca/swag Send us a postcard or letter http://www.grimerica.ca/contact/ ART - Napolean Duheme's site http://www.lostbreadcomic.com/  MUSIC Tru Northperception, Felix's Site sirfelix.bandcamp.com    Links to the stuff we chatted about: https://needtoknow.news/2026/02/gaming-the-system-almost-4-in-10-stanford-students-claim-disability/ https://x.com/FiftyFootNest/status/2026021357205487918?s=20 https://x.com/MrPool_QQ/status/2025947144180416848?s=20 https://x.com/MrPool_QQ/status/2025850198077870248?s=20 https://x.com/JoeLang51440671/status/2025622192210247792?s=20 https://x.com/CaptKylePatriot/status/2025649596203205106?s=20 https://x.com/theblackvault/status/2025284894084260324?s=20 https://x.com/nic_moneypenny/status/2025619549861589351?s=20 https://x.com/JackDan110/status/2025375666561224883?s=20 https://x.com/GuntherEagleman/status/2025254868194148824?s=20 https://x.com/walterkirn/status/2025667689356959875?s=20 https://x.com/AshtonForbes/status/2024641568196510119?s=20 https://x.com/DeDunkingPast/status/2024267072566673630?s=20 https://x.com/digijordan/status/2024352927083638942?s=20 https://x.com/GrassiTrevor/status/2024236413533962628?s=20

This week on REKT Vision, Mando, Rekt co-founder and author of the Mando Minutes newsletter, is joined by Spencer Gordon-Sand, founder of Orange Cap Capital and head of Moonbirds. Together, they break down the latest GDP print, crypto's price action across majors and alts, and the key technical levels that could define the next move. They also dive into the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs and what it means for macro risk assets, alongside the latest developments in the NFT market. Binance is the world's leading blockchain ecosystem, trusted by over 300M users in 100+ countries. It offers an unmatched portfolio of digital asset products such as trading, finance, Web3, payments, and more.  

Tom Bilyeu and co-host DREW dive headfirst into some of the most pressing and controversial news stories shaking the globe. They kick things off by unpacking the arrest of Prince Andrew—highlighting the unprecedented legal scrutiny on the British royal family and its deep connections to the infamous Epstein saga. The conversation peels back the layers of power, secrecy, and the changing nature of accountability in the age of hyper-velocity information, asking whether true justice can ever be achieved when the world's elites are involved. But the episode doesn't stop there. Tom Bilyeu and DREW pivot to the bizarre timing of President Trump's announcement to “give us the aliens,” raising questions about whether disclosures about extraterrestrial life are just next-level distractions from more uncomfortable truths. From Nobel Prize-winning physics experiments that challenge our understanding of reality itself, to politicians and military personnel testifying under oath about UFOs, this discussion is a whirlwind journey through the places where science fiction meets political theater. As always, expect sharp analysis, biting humor, and a fearless willingness to address the issues others avoid. Whether it's the unraveling of global conspiracies, the fate of democracy in an era of fractured narratives, or the economic chess game of international tariffs, this episode promises to make you think deeper and question everything. Buckle up—this is Impact Theory at its thought-provoking best. Huel: High-Protein Starter Kit 20% off for new customers at https://huel.com/impact code impactKetone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactPique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impact Cape: 33% off your first 6 months with code IMPACT at https://cape.co/impact Plaud: Get 10% off with code TOM10 at https://plaud.ai/tomDuck.Ai: Protect your privacy at https://duck.ai/impactRaycon: 15% off at https://buyraycon.com/impact What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Prince Andrew arrest, Epstein files, Jeffrey Epstein, misconduct in public office, British royal family, information censorship, aliens, extraterrestrial disclosure, Trump administration, political distraction, royal scandal, government secrets, Virginia Giuffre, sexual abuse allegations, whistleblower testimony, House Oversight Committee, UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), alien technology, Nobel Prize physics, quantum entanglement, Obama alien remarks, Trump tariffs, Supreme Court ruling, International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEPA), tariff lawsuits, government shutdown, GDP numbers, deregulation, energy prices, U.S. manufacturing jobs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices