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Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

川普下令狙殺伊朗最高領袖哈米尼，引爆中東戰火，《經濟學人》最新封面故事批評這對美國而言是一場「沒有戰略的戰爭」，不僅在政治上會造成戰線擴大，甚至迫使周邊多國與北約捲入，經濟上也會導致通膨與經濟風暴，尤其是全球能源命脈受阻，油價狂飆恐重創GDP，伊朗內部分裂危機，更恐將引發區域大地震，文中呼籲美國應盡速縮小戰爭目標。 【聽完這集你會知道】 02:15｜川普「無戰略戰爭」的三大全球危機：美國狙殺伊朗領袖缺乏明確戰略恐引發嚴重外溢效應：戰火波及北約、油價飆破百元推升通膨，以及伊朗內部分裂導致的地緣政治動盪。 14:00｜AI 失控倒數？五角大廈與企業的角力：知名 AI 公司 Anthropic 擔憂技術淪為監控與自動化武器，與國防部爆發合約爭議 。若政府持續忽視安全護欄，恐提早引發人工智慧災難 。 16:40｜中國 2026 經濟目標為何被批「太低？：中國將 GDP 成長目標設於 4.5% 至 5%，遭批缺乏野心 。過低的目標將限制刺激政策，恐讓經濟深陷連續四年的通縮與青年高失業率泥淖 。 主持人：天下雜誌資深主筆 黃亦筠 主講人：金庫資本管理合夥人兼總經理 丁學文 製作團隊：張雅媛、莊志偉、邱宇豪 ＊延伸閱讀｜衝突升級　為什麼對伊朗有利？：https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5140058 ＊立即下載天下App：https://mkt.cw.com.tw/applink/cwapp.html?source=podcast ＊訂閱天下全閱讀：https://bit.ly/3STpEpV ＊意見信箱：bill@cw.com.tw -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

Báo động trước tình trạng ngược đãi những người lao động bị cưỡng bức, trong đó có không ít nạn nhân là người Việt Nam, tại các trung tâm lừa đảo trực tuyến ở các nước Đông Nam Á, Văn phòng Cao ủy Nhân quyền Liên Hiệp Quốc ngày 20/02/2026 đã kêu gọi cộng đồng quốc tế hành động chống lại tệ nạn này. Riêng Việt Nam đang phối hợp với Cam Bốt và những đối tác khác ở Đông Nam Á để triệt hạ các đường dây lừa đảo xuyên quốc gia. Trong một báo cáo được công bố vào năm 2023, Liên Hiệp Quốc ước tính hàng trăm ngàn người đã bị cưỡng bức tuyển dụng để thực hiện các vụ lừa đảo trực tuyến. Báo cáo mới, dựa trên lời khai của các nạn nhân và các cuộc phỏng vấn với các cảnh sát và đại diện của xã hội dân sự, mô tả các vi phạm nhân quyền nghiêm trọng mà những người bị buộc phải làm việc trong các trung tâm này phải gánh chịu.  Báo cáo ghi nhận các trường hợp tra tấn, ngược đãi, bóc lột, lạm dụng tình dục, cưỡng bức phá thai, bỏ đói và biệt giam. Một nạn nhân từ Sri Lanka khai rằng những người không đạt chỉ tiêu hàng tháng về lừa đảo đã bị dìm xuống nước hàng giờ trong các bể nước (gọi là 'nhà tù nước'). Các nạn nhân cũng kể lại việc bị ép buộc chứng kiến, thậm chí tham gia vào những hành vi vi phạm nhân quyền nghiêm trọng này. Một nạn nhân người Bangladesh cho biết anh ta được lệnh đánh đập những người lao động cưỡng bức khác, và một nạn nhân người Ghana mô tả việc bị ép buộc phải chứng kiến ​​bạn mình bị đánh đập. Một nạn nhân người Việt Nam kể lại việc em gái mình bị đánh đập, bị chích điện, bị nhốt trong phòng và bị bỏ đói trong bảy ngày vì đã toan đào thoát. Liên Hiệp Quốc lên án tình trạng những nạn nhân này bị xác định sai là tội phạm và bị truy tố hình sự, hoặc bị trừng phạt thay vì được bảo vệ. Từ nhiều năm qua, Cam Bốt đã trở thành “thiên đường” cho các tổ chức tội phạm điều hành ngành công nghiệp lừa đảo trị giá hàng tỷ đô la. Một báo cáo năm 2024 của Viện Hòa bình Hoa Kỳ ước tính doanh thu từ các vụ lừa đảo mạng ở Cam Bốt vượt quá 12,5 tỷ đô la mỗi năm, tương đương một nửa tổng sản phẩm nội địa (GDP) của nước này. Viện tư vấn Stimson Center, trụ sở chính tại thủ đô Washington của Mỹ, có một dự án về chống lừa đảo trên mạng, tập hợp các nhà khoa học cũng như các nhà hoạch định chính sách và cả đại diện các tập đoàn công nghệ như Google hoặc Meta. Sau ba năm thực hiện, vừa rồi họ đã tổ chức hội thảo tại Bangkok để tổng kết và đánh giá về những chiến dịch triệt hạ các trung tâm lừa đảo ở Cam Bốt. Tham gia dự án này có tiến sĩ Lương Thanh Hải, một nhà tội phạm học, hiện là giảng viên Trường Tư pháp hình sự và tội phạm học Griffith, Úc. Trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Việt ngữ ngày 05/03/2026, ông Lương Thanh Hải cho biết:  "Hơn nửa năm trở lại đây, từ giữa năm 2025 cho đến đầu năm 2026, dưới áp lực mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng quốc tế, từ Mỹ, Trung Quốc, Hàn Quốc và một số nước Đông Nam Á, chính quyền Cam Bốt đã mở một chiến dịch quy mô rất lớn nhằm triệt phá các khu phức hợp lừa đảo trực tuyến ( scams compound ). Tất nhiên để đánh giá một kết quả tổng thể đòi hỏi những số liệu cụ thể và hiện nay thì chúng tôi vẫn đang cập nhật để có số liệu cụ thể chính xác. Nhưng sơ bộ thì trong vòng nửa năm trở lại đây, chính quyền Cam Bốt đã đánh sập được gần 200 trung tâm lừa đảo. Có thể nói là đây là một con số khá ấn tượng. Trong cuộc tọa đàm vừa rồi, chúng tôi cũng đã tổng kết sơ bộ ít nhất có hơn 173 nhân vật cầm đầu đã bị bắt và khoảng trên dưới 11.000 người tham gia đã bị trục xuất khỏi Cam Bốt. Hàng ngàn người là nạn nhân bị ép lừa đảo đã thoát khỏi các trung tâm đó. Đầu tháng 2 vừa rồi, chúng tôi cũng ghi nhận, đặc biệt là sau khi quân đội Thái Lan tiến hành công kích và triệt phá các khu phức hợp, các sòng bài lớn ở Cam Bốt, người ta đã phát hiện các đối tượng sử dụng trang phục cảnh sát của ít nhất là 7 nước như Úc, Brazil, Việt Nam, Indonesia, Singapore v.v... Đây có thể nói là những bằng chứng rõ nhất cho thấy các ổ lừa đảo này hoạt động hết sức  tinh vi, sử dụng các trang phục của lực lượng thực thi pháp luật nhằm tạo ra những kịch bản y như một cuộc thẩm vấn của cảnh sát liên bang Úc, hay của cảnh sát Việt Nam, cảnh sát Singapore..., để lừa đảo, thậm chí là đưa ra các kịch bản bắt bớ, khởi tố..., khiến các nạn nhân dễ bị đánh gục. Chính quyền Cam Bốt đầu năm vừa rồi đã đưa ra được một con số khá ấn tượng là đã giảm được khoảng 50% hoạt động lừa đảo trực tuyến sau các chiến dịch mạnh như vậy. Tất nhiên con số đó cũng cần phải được thẩm định.  Ngoài ra một số trùm mạng lưới, đặc biệt là Trần Chí ( Chen Zhi ), một đối tượng cầm đầu đã bị chính quyền Hoa Kỳ phong tỏa các tài sản và dưới áp lực của Mỹ, Cam Bốt cuối cùng cũng đã triển khai các chiến dịch và bắt được trùm lừa đảo này. Đầu năm vừa rồi, Trần Chí bị dẫn độ theo yêu cầu của chính quyền Trung Quốc đưa về Trung Quốc xét xử. Giới nghiên cứu chúng tôi tiếp tục cập nhật và hy vọng chính phủ Trung Quốc sẽ công bố những thông tin minh bạch, cũng như các bản án cụ thể, để chúng tôi từ góc độ tội phạm học có thể phân tích sâu hơn tại sao và như thế nào mà một trùm lừa đảo như Trần Chí lại có thể đi sâu và điều hành cả một tập đoàn lớn như vậy ở Cam Bốt trong rất nhiều năm. Sau khi phá được nhiều chuyên án lớn như vậy, nhiều tổ chức quốc tế cho rằng các đường dây này chỉ tạm thời giải tán thôi và rồi sẽ lại di chuyển sang địa phận khác. Các hoạt động tuyển dụng lao động của những trung tâm lừa đảo vẫn tiếp tục trên mạng xã hội. Bởi vì xét đến cùng, công nghiệp lừa đảo này ở Cam Bốt vẫn có quy mô cực lớn, có thể kiếm siêu lợi nhuận hàng chục tỷ đồng mỗi năm. Nói cách khác, chiến dịch này đã gây xáo trộn lớn, nhưng chưa thực sự triệt tiêu được hệ sinh thái đối với loại tội phạm lừa đảo qua mạng này." Hơn nữa, không chỉ có người Trung Quốc hay người Cam Bốt, mà có cả người Việt Nam điều hành đường dây lừa đảo ở xứ Chùa Tháp. Theo báo chí Việt Nam, ngày 13/02, Công an Đồng Nai phối hợp Cục An ninh mạng và phòng, chống tội phạm sử dụng công nghệ cao (Bộ Công an) đã tạm giữ Nguyễn Thị Vân, 30 tuổi, cùng 13 người khác để điều tra hành vi Lừa đảo chiếm đoạt tài sản. Nguyễn Thị Vân được xác đinh là cầm đầu đường dây lừa đảo 2.500 tỷ đồng của hàng ngàn nạn nhân, hoạt động tại Cam Bốt. Các nhà điều tra cho biết đây là một trong những vụ án đầu tiên bắt giữ được chủ mưu là người Việt Nam, tự đầu tư cơ sở hạ tầng quy mô lớn và vận hành hệ thống lừa đảo tại nhiều địa điểm ở Cam Bốt. Ngày 25/02, đến lượt Cơ quan Cảnh sát Điều tra Công an tỉnh Tây Ninh ra thông báo tìm những ai là nạn nhân của Huỳnh Nguyễn Ngọc Huy trong vụ án lừa đảo qua mạng xã hội để mua bán người. Cụ thể, Huy dùng tài khoản Facebook "Huy Trần" đăng tin tuyển dụng giả giới thiệu các “việc nhẹ lương cao” để lừa gạt nạn nhân đưa sang Cam Bốt. Tại đây, các nạn nhân bị ép buộc làm việc, nếu muốn về nước phải trả tiền chuộc rất cao, hoặc bị bán tiếp sang các công ty lừa đảo khác. Nhà tội phạm học Lương Thanh Hải giải thích:  "Qua nghiên cứu từ thực tiễn, cũng như về lý thuyết, chúng tôi gọi đó là sự trùng lặp, sự lặp lại giữa nạn nhân và thủ phạm. Chúng tôi hay dùng thuật ngữ offender - victim overlap. Họ là những nạn nhân đã bị dụ dỗ để sang làm, bị ép buộc, được đào tạo từng bước một, từng kịch bản một và thậm chí đóng các kịch bản lực lượng thực thi pháp luật của nước A, nước B, nước C để lừa ngược lại. Thậm chí khi bị nhốt vào các trung tâm lừa đảo này, họ bị ép buộc phải đạt được chỉ số KPI ( chỉ số đo lường và đánh giá hiệu quả hoạt động ), hàng ngày hàng giờ phải thực hiện bao nhiêu cuộc lừa đảo. Thành thử họ không còn lựa chọn nào khác, buộc phải làm ngày làm đêm, thậm chí phải lừa cả người thân trong gia đình, bạn bè của họ ở Việt Nam, lôi kéo sang để lại trở thành nạn nhân của các vụ lừa đảo qua mạng tiếp theo. Trong khoảng hai năm trở lại đây, công an Việt Nam cũng đã phối hợp khá chặt chẽ với các lực lượng thực thi pháp luật của khu vực Đông Nam Á, thông qua các kênh chính thống, ví dụ như ASEANAPOL, tức là Hiệp hội cảnh sát trưởng của các nước ASEAN, hoặc là thông qua các đối tác song phương giữa cảnh sát và bộ Nội Vụ của Vương Quốc Cam Bốt hoặc Thái Lan. Đã có nhiều cuộc giải cứu thành công, ví dụ mới đây công an tỉnh Tuyên Quang đã giải cứu và đưa được khoảng 74 nghi phạm từ Cam Bốt và Việt Nam trong một vụ lừa đảo lên đến hàng nghìn tỷ đồng. Hiện nay, Việt Nam được đánh giá là một những nước đầu tiên của khu vực Đông Nam Á đang hướng tới áp dụng nguyên tắc "không hình phạt" đối với nạn nhân, nếu như chứng minh được họ là nạn nhân của các vụ ép buộc lừa đảo trực tuyến. Điều này cũng đã được cụ thể hóa trong luật về phòng chống buôn bán người của Việt Nam được sửa đổi năm 2024 và có hiệu lực từ tháng 7/2025. Về góc độ chính sách và pháp luật, chúng tôi cho đấy là một trong những bước tiến rất đáng ghi nhận từ chính quyền Việt Nam." Một cơ sơ pháp lý khác để Việt Nam có thể tăng cường hợp tác với các nước để diệt trừ các trung tâm lừa đảo, theo ông Lương Thanh Hải, chính là Công ước Hà Nội:  "Công ước Hà Nội, tức là Công ước của Liên Hiệp Quốc về phòng chống tội phạm mạng, đã được ký từ tháng 10/2025. Bản thân Việt Nam và Cam Bốt, cùng một số nước khác trong Đông Nam Á, có tham gia. Theo thống kê của chúng tôi, tổng số nước ký kết đã lên đến 73 hoặc là 75 nước. Đây là một bước tiến lớn về cơ sở pháp lý để tăng cường hợp tác quốc tế trong phòng chống các tội phạm mạng, bao gồm cả lừa đảo trực tuyến như các trung tâm ở Cam Bốt. Tuy nhiên, phần lớn những người Việt được phát hiện tham gia, thậm chí trực tiếp đi sang và cầm đầu các nhóm đối tượng ở Cam Bốt trong các trung tâm lừa đảo trực tuyến không phải là những "big boss", không phải là trùm của những ông trùm. Phần lớn những ông trùm đó vẫn là "behind the scene", vẫn đang tiếp tục lẫn trốn. Như trường hợp của Trần Chí chẳng hạn, phải mất rất nhiều thời gian mới bị phá vỡ và bị bắt. Thành thử  những người Việt này thì chúng tôi đánh giá chủ yếu là đứng đằng sau điều hành các trung tâm lừa đảo Cam Bốt. Công an Việt Nam cũng đang tiếp tục khởi tố theo các nhóm tội lừa đảo, chiếm đoạt tài sản, hoặc tổ chức đưa người ra nước ngoài trái phép, tham gia trực tiếp vào các trung tâm lừa đảo đó. Các số liệu cũng như các bằng chứng cho thấy các đường dây này thường là dụ người Việt Nam bằng cái chiêu là "việc nhẹ lương cao", sau đó bán sang trung tâm lừa đảo. Các cơ quan công an Việt Nam trực tiếp cũng như phối hợp với lượng thực thi pháp luật các nước, trong đó Cam Bốt và Thái Lan, đã triệt phá các nhóm môi giới này trên các nền tảng xã hội, như Zalo hoặc Facebook và có nhiều trường hợp đã xử lý về tội mua bán người, hoặc tổ chức xuất cảnh trái phép. Chúng tôi cũng kỳ vọng Công ước Hà Nội, cũng như các cơ sở pháp lý khác trong khu vực ASEAN, đặc biệt là giữa các nước Việt Nam, Lào, Cam Bốt và thậm chí cả Thái Lan nữa, sẽ tăng cường hợp tác về thực thi pháp luật, trao đổi dữ liệu về tội phạm mạng, tiếp tục phối hợp giải cứu các nạn nhân và cũng có thể tiến hành dẫn độ, hoặc trao đổi các loại tài liệu liên quan đến điều tra, truy tố và xét xử trong quá trình triệt phá các băng nhóm từ nay cho đến cuối năm và trong thời gian tới."

Báo động trước tình trạng ngược đãi những người lao động bị cưỡng bức, trong đó có không ít nạn nhân là người Việt Nam, tại các trung tâm lừa đảo trực tuyến ở các nước Đông Nam Á, Văn phòng Cao ủy Nhân quyền Liên Hiệp Quốc ngày 20/02/2026 đã kêu gọi cộng đồng quốc tế hành động chống lại tệ nạn này. Riêng Việt Nam đang phối hợp với Cam Bốt và những đối tác khác ở Đông Nam Á để triệt hạ các đường dây lừa đảo xuyên quốc gia. Trong một báo cáo được công bố vào năm 2023, Liên Hiệp Quốc ước tính hàng trăm ngàn người đã bị cưỡng bức tuyển dụng để thực hiện các vụ lừa đảo trực tuyến. Báo cáo mới, dựa trên lời khai của các nạn nhân và các cuộc phỏng vấn với các cảnh sát và đại diện của xã hội dân sự, mô tả các vi phạm nhân quyền nghiêm trọng mà những người bị buộc phải làm việc trong các trung tâm này phải gánh chịu.  Báo cáo ghi nhận các trường hợp tra tấn, ngược đãi, bóc lột, lạm dụng tình dục, cưỡng bức phá thai, bỏ đói và biệt giam. Một nạn nhân từ Sri Lanka khai rằng những người không đạt chỉ tiêu hàng tháng về lừa đảo đã bị dìm xuống nước hàng giờ trong các bể nước (gọi là 'nhà tù nước'). Các nạn nhân cũng kể lại việc bị ép buộc chứng kiến, thậm chí tham gia vào những hành vi vi phạm nhân quyền nghiêm trọng này. Một nạn nhân người Bangladesh cho biết anh ta được lệnh đánh đập những người lao động cưỡng bức khác, và một nạn nhân người Ghana mô tả việc bị ép buộc phải chứng kiến ​​bạn mình bị đánh đập. Một nạn nhân người Việt Nam kể lại việc em gái mình bị đánh đập, bị chích điện, bị nhốt trong phòng và bị bỏ đói trong bảy ngày vì đã toan đào thoát. Liên Hiệp Quốc lên án tình trạng những nạn nhân này bị xác định sai là tội phạm và bị truy tố hình sự, hoặc bị trừng phạt thay vì được bảo vệ. Từ nhiều năm qua, Cam Bốt đã trở thành “thiên đường” cho các tổ chức tội phạm điều hành ngành công nghiệp lừa đảo trị giá hàng tỷ đô la. Một báo cáo năm 2024 của Viện Hòa bình Hoa Kỳ ước tính doanh thu từ các vụ lừa đảo mạng ở Cam Bốt vượt quá 12,5 tỷ đô la mỗi năm, tương đương một nửa tổng sản phẩm nội địa (GDP) của nước này. Viện tư vấn Stimson Center, trụ sở chính tại thủ đô Washington của Mỹ, có một dự án về chống lừa đảo trên mạng, tập hợp các nhà khoa học cũng như các nhà hoạch định chính sách và cả đại diện các tập đoàn công nghệ như Google hoặc Meta. Sau ba năm thực hiện, vừa rồi họ đã tổ chức hội thảo tại Bangkok để tổng kết và đánh giá về những chiến dịch triệt hạ các trung tâm lừa đảo ở Cam Bốt. Tham gia dự án này có tiến sĩ Lương Thanh Hải, một nhà tội phạm học, hiện là giảng viên Trường Tư pháp hình sự và tội phạm học Griffith, Úc. Trả lời phỏng vấn RFI Việt ngữ ngày 05/03/2026, ông Lương Thanh Hải cho biết:  "Hơn nửa năm trở lại đây, từ giữa năm 2025 cho đến đầu năm 2026, dưới áp lực mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng quốc tế, từ Mỹ, Trung Quốc, Hàn Quốc và một số nước Đông Nam Á, chính quyền Cam Bốt đã mở một chiến dịch quy mô rất lớn nhằm triệt phá các khu phức hợp lừa đảo trực tuyến ( scams compound ). Tất nhiên để đánh giá một kết quả tổng thể đòi hỏi những số liệu cụ thể và hiện nay thì chúng tôi vẫn đang cập nhật để có số liệu cụ thể chính xác. Nhưng sơ bộ thì trong vòng nửa năm trở lại đây, chính quyền Cam Bốt đã đánh sập được gần 200 trung tâm lừa đảo. Có thể nói là đây là một con số khá ấn tượng. Trong cuộc tọa đàm vừa rồi, chúng tôi cũng đã tổng kết sơ bộ ít nhất có hơn 173 nhân vật cầm đầu đã bị bắt và khoảng trên dưới 11.000 người tham gia đã bị trục xuất khỏi Cam Bốt. Hàng ngàn người là nạn nhân bị ép lừa đảo đã thoát khỏi các trung tâm đó. Đầu tháng 2 vừa rồi, chúng tôi cũng ghi nhận, đặc biệt là sau khi quân đội Thái Lan tiến hành công kích và triệt phá các khu phức hợp, các sòng bài lớn ở Cam Bốt, người ta đã phát hiện các đối tượng sử dụng trang phục cảnh sát của ít nhất là 7 nước như Úc, Brazil, Việt Nam, Indonesia, Singapore v.v... Đây có thể nói là những bằng chứng rõ nhất cho thấy các ổ lừa đảo này hoạt động hết sức  tinh vi, sử dụng các trang phục của lực lượng thực thi pháp luật nhằm tạo ra những kịch bản y như một cuộc thẩm vấn của cảnh sát liên bang Úc, hay của cảnh sát Việt Nam, cảnh sát Singapore..., để lừa đảo, thậm chí là đưa ra các kịch bản bắt bớ, khởi tố..., khiến các nạn nhân dễ bị đánh gục. Chính quyền Cam Bốt đầu năm vừa rồi đã đưa ra được một con số khá ấn tượng là đã giảm được khoảng 50% hoạt động lừa đảo trực tuyến sau các chiến dịch mạnh như vậy. Tất nhiên con số đó cũng cần phải được thẩm định.  Ngoài ra một số trùm mạng lưới, đặc biệt là Trần Chí ( Chen Zhi ), một đối tượng cầm đầu đã bị chính quyền Hoa Kỳ phong tỏa các tài sản và dưới áp lực của Mỹ, Cam Bốt cuối cùng cũng đã triển khai các chiến dịch và bắt được trùm lừa đảo này. Đầu năm vừa rồi, Trần Chí bị dẫn độ theo yêu cầu của chính quyền Trung Quốc đưa về Trung Quốc xét xử. Giới nghiên cứu chúng tôi tiếp tục cập nhật và hy vọng chính phủ Trung Quốc sẽ công bố những thông tin minh bạch, cũng như các bản án cụ thể, để chúng tôi từ góc độ tội phạm học có thể phân tích sâu hơn tại sao và như thế nào mà một trùm lừa đảo như Trần Chí lại có thể đi sâu và điều hành cả một tập đoàn lớn như vậy ở Cam Bốt trong rất nhiều năm. Sau khi phá được nhiều chuyên án lớn như vậy, nhiều tổ chức quốc tế cho rằng các đường dây này chỉ tạm thời giải tán thôi và rồi sẽ lại di chuyển sang địa phận khác. Các hoạt động tuyển dụng lao động của những trung tâm lừa đảo vẫn tiếp tục trên mạng xã hội. Bởi vì xét đến cùng, công nghiệp lừa đảo này ở Cam Bốt vẫn có quy mô cực lớn, có thể kiếm siêu lợi nhuận hàng chục tỷ đồng mỗi năm. Nói cách khác, chiến dịch này đã gây xáo trộn lớn, nhưng chưa thực sự triệt tiêu được hệ sinh thái đối với loại tội phạm lừa đảo qua mạng này." Hơn nữa, không chỉ có người Trung Quốc hay người Cam Bốt, mà có cả người Việt Nam điều hành đường dây lừa đảo ở xứ Chùa Tháp. Theo báo chí Việt Nam, ngày 13/02, Công an Đồng Nai phối hợp Cục An ninh mạng và phòng, chống tội phạm sử dụng công nghệ cao (Bộ Công an) đã tạm giữ Nguyễn Thị Vân, 30 tuổi, cùng 13 người khác để điều tra hành vi Lừa đảo chiếm đoạt tài sản. Nguyễn Thị Vân được xác đinh là cầm đầu đường dây lừa đảo 2.500 tỷ đồng của hàng ngàn nạn nhân, hoạt động tại Cam Bốt. Các nhà điều tra cho biết đây là một trong những vụ án đầu tiên bắt giữ được chủ mưu là người Việt Nam, tự đầu tư cơ sở hạ tầng quy mô lớn và vận hành hệ thống lừa đảo tại nhiều địa điểm ở Cam Bốt. Ngày 25/02, đến lượt Cơ quan Cảnh sát Điều tra Công an tỉnh Tây Ninh ra thông báo tìm những ai là nạn nhân của Huỳnh Nguyễn Ngọc Huy trong vụ án lừa đảo qua mạng xã hội để mua bán người. Cụ thể, Huy dùng tài khoản Facebook "Huy Trần" đăng tin tuyển dụng giả giới thiệu các “việc nhẹ lương cao” để lừa gạt nạn nhân đưa sang Cam Bốt. Tại đây, các nạn nhân bị ép buộc làm việc, nếu muốn về nước phải trả tiền chuộc rất cao, hoặc bị bán tiếp sang các công ty lừa đảo khác. Nhà tội phạm học Lương Thanh Hải giải thích:  "Qua nghiên cứu từ thực tiễn, cũng như về lý thuyết, chúng tôi gọi đó là sự trùng lặp, sự lặp lại giữa nạn nhân và thủ phạm. Chúng tôi hay dùng thuật ngữ offender - victim overlap. Họ là những nạn nhân đã bị dụ dỗ để sang làm, bị ép buộc, được đào tạo từng bước một, từng kịch bản một và thậm chí đóng các kịch bản lực lượng thực thi pháp luật của nước A, nước B, nước C để lừa ngược lại. Thậm chí khi bị nhốt vào các trung tâm lừa đảo này, họ bị ép buộc phải đạt được chỉ số KPI ( chỉ số đo lường và đánh giá hiệu quả hoạt động ), hàng ngày hàng giờ phải thực hiện bao nhiêu cuộc lừa đảo. Thành thử họ không còn lựa chọn nào khác, buộc phải làm ngày làm đêm, thậm chí phải lừa cả người thân trong gia đình, bạn bè của họ ở Việt Nam, lôi kéo sang để lại trở thành nạn nhân của các vụ lừa đảo qua mạng tiếp theo. Trong khoảng hai năm trở lại đây, công an Việt Nam cũng đã phối hợp khá chặt chẽ với các lực lượng thực thi pháp luật của khu vực Đông Nam Á, thông qua các kênh chính thống, ví dụ như ASEANAPOL, tức là Hiệp hội cảnh sát trưởng của các nước ASEAN, hoặc là thông qua các đối tác song phương giữa cảnh sát và bộ Nội Vụ của Vương Quốc Cam Bốt hoặc Thái Lan. Đã có nhiều cuộc giải cứu thành công, ví dụ mới đây công an tỉnh Tuyên Quang đã giải cứu và đưa được khoảng 74 nghi phạm từ Cam Bốt và Việt Nam trong một vụ lừa đảo lên đến hàng nghìn tỷ đồng. Hiện nay, Việt Nam được đánh giá là một những nước đầu tiên của khu vực Đông Nam Á đang hướng tới áp dụng nguyên tắc "không hình phạt" đối với nạn nhân, nếu như chứng minh được họ là nạn nhân của các vụ ép buộc lừa đảo trực tuyến. Điều này cũng đã được cụ thể hóa trong luật về phòng chống buôn bán người của Việt Nam được sửa đổi năm 2024 và có hiệu lực từ tháng 7/2025. Về góc độ chính sách và pháp luật, chúng tôi cho đấy là một trong những bước tiến rất đáng ghi nhận từ chính quyền Việt Nam." Một cơ sơ pháp lý khác để Việt Nam có thể tăng cường hợp tác với các nước để diệt trừ các trung tâm lừa đảo, theo ông Lương Thanh Hải, chính là Công ước Hà Nội:  "Công ước Hà Nội, tức là Công ước của Liên Hiệp Quốc về phòng chống tội phạm mạng, đã được ký từ tháng 10/2025. Bản thân Việt Nam và Cam Bốt, cùng một số nước khác trong Đông Nam Á, có tham gia. Theo thống kê của chúng tôi, tổng số nước ký kết đã lên đến 73 hoặc là 75 nước. Đây là một bước tiến lớn về cơ sở pháp lý để tăng cường hợp tác quốc tế trong phòng chống các tội phạm mạng, bao gồm cả lừa đảo trực tuyến như các trung tâm ở Cam Bốt. Tuy nhiên, phần lớn những người Việt được phát hiện tham gia, thậm chí trực tiếp đi sang và cầm đầu các nhóm đối tượng ở Cam Bốt trong các trung tâm lừa đảo trực tuyến không phải là những "big boss", không phải là trùm của những ông trùm. Phần lớn những ông trùm đó vẫn là "behind the scene", vẫn đang tiếp tục lẫn trốn. Như trường hợp của Trần Chí chẳng hạn, phải mất rất nhiều thời gian mới bị phá vỡ và bị bắt. Thành thử  những người Việt này thì chúng tôi đánh giá chủ yếu là đứng đằng sau điều hành các trung tâm lừa đảo Cam Bốt. Công an Việt Nam cũng đang tiếp tục khởi tố theo các nhóm tội lừa đảo, chiếm đoạt tài sản, hoặc tổ chức đưa người ra nước ngoài trái phép, tham gia trực tiếp vào các trung tâm lừa đảo đó. Các số liệu cũng như các bằng chứng cho thấy các đường dây này thường là dụ người Việt Nam bằng cái chiêu là "việc nhẹ lương cao", sau đó bán sang trung tâm lừa đảo. Các cơ quan công an Việt Nam trực tiếp cũng như phối hợp với lượng thực thi pháp luật các nước, trong đó Cam Bốt và Thái Lan, đã triệt phá các nhóm môi giới này trên các nền tảng xã hội, như Zalo hoặc Facebook và có nhiều trường hợp đã xử lý về tội mua bán người, hoặc tổ chức xuất cảnh trái phép. Chúng tôi cũng kỳ vọng Công ước Hà Nội, cũng như các cơ sở pháp lý khác trong khu vực ASEAN, đặc biệt là giữa các nước Việt Nam, Lào, Cam Bốt và thậm chí cả Thái Lan nữa, sẽ tăng cường hợp tác về thực thi pháp luật, trao đổi dữ liệu về tội phạm mạng, tiếp tục phối hợp giải cứu các nạn nhân và cũng có thể tiến hành dẫn độ, hoặc trao đổi các loại tài liệu liên quan đến điều tra, truy tố và xét xử trong quá trình triệt phá các băng nhóm từ nay cho đến cuối năm và trong thời gian tới."

Guest Mike Murphy, Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, joins to discuss ongoing budget talks in DC. Discussion of fraud and waste spending, amount of spending on social programs, the battle on tariffs, and ways to get the federal budget under control. Can we increase the GDP enough to balance the budget, and where can we cut spending? President Trump kicks off the weekend announcing a new "Shield of Americas" movement with multiple Central American and South American nations to battle against cartels, organized crimes, trafficking issues, and more. Can we rid our hemisphere from drugs, crime, and shadow governments?

Podcast: Industrial Cybersecurity InsiderEpisode: The Blind Spots Putting Manufacturers at Risk: WEF 2026 Global Cybersecurity OutlookPub date: 2026-03-03Get Podcast Transcript →powered by Listen411 - fast audio-to-text and summarizationLuRae Lumpkin, Producer of Industrial Cybersecurity Insider, sits down with industrial cybersecurity expert Dino Busalachi to break down the 2026 World Economic Forum Global Cybersecurity Outlook Report and what it really means for manufacturers. While the report surveyed nearly a thousand CEOs, CIOs, and CISOs, Dino reveals a critical blind spot: industrial control systems and OT environments are being left dangerously exposed. They discuss how AI is becoming a double-edged sword for attackers and defenders, why supply chain vulnerabilities remain unaddressed, the shocking lack of cybersecurity skills on plant floors, and why most companies still aren't conducting incident response exercises. Dino shares real-world insights from working in nearly 2,000 plants over four decades, explaining why IT and OT remain disconnected, how remote access creates massive security gaps, and why outdated equipment with decades-old vulnerabilities sits unpatched in critical manufacturing environments. The conversation reveals that while enterprises focus on IT security, the plant floor—where revenue is actually generated—remains critically vulnerable, with potentially catastrophic consequences for businesses, supply chains, and even national GDP. Chapters: (00:00:00) - Introduction and Overview of WEF 2026 Cybersecurity Report (00:01:00) - Where Cybersecurity Funding Actually Goes: IT vs OT Reality (00:03:00) - The Myth of Disconnected Legacy Equipment (00:05:00) - AI as a Double-Edged Sword in Industrial Environments (00:08:00) - The Vulnerability Crisis: Thousands of Unpatched Systems (00:09:00) - Third-Party and Supply Chain Security Gaps (00:12:00) - Remote Access: The Hidden Attack Vector (00:14:00) - Critical Supplier Dependencies and Decentralized OT (00:15:00) - The Skills Gap: Why Industrial Cybersecurity Expertise is Scarce (00:19:00) - The Shocking Truth About Incident Response Exercises (00:22:00) - Real-World Impact: When Manufacturers Get Hit (00:24:00) - Getting All Stakeholders in the Same Room (00:28:00) - Insurance vs Prevention: The True Cost of Cyber Incidents (00:29:00) - Final Thoughts: Who Should Own OT Cybersecurity? Links And Resources:Want to Sponsor an episode or be a Guest? Reach out here.Industrial Cybersecurity Insider on LinkedInCybersecurity & Digital Safety on LinkedInBW Design Group CybersecurityDino Busalachi on LinkedInCraig Duckworth on LinkedInThanks so much for joining us this week. Want to subscribe to Industrial Cybersecurity Insider? Have some feedback you'd like to share? Connect with us on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube to leave us a review!The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from Industrial Cybersecurity Insider, which is the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Listen Notes, Inc.

The international world order is being shaken up, and Europe's place at the new table is far from certain. Russia's war against Ukraine continues unabated. What security strategy should Europe pursue?Last year, the NATO allies agreed in The Hague to spend 3.5 percent of their GDP on direct defence expenditure. What does that mean in practice? Will Europe succeed in overcoming national interests, fragmented production, and slow coordination? Will Europe be able to defend Ukraine?Together with Justyna Gotkowska, Deputy Director and Head of the Security and Defence Department at the OSW Centre for Eastern Studies based in Warsaw, we examine Europe's security from the perspective of those closest to Russia's war and its long-term consequences and her four-point plan for Ukraine, which offers a potential European counterstrategy in response to Russian ‘peace' proposals. She is joined in conversation by Alex Krijger and Nikki Sterkenburg.Information wars: about this series With this three-part programme series, which is partially funded by a Public Diplomacy Grant from NATO, we want to provide in-depth analysis of current affairs and facilitate nuanced debate, thus making complex material accessible. Russian-Western relations are shaped by war, in the broadest sense of the word. What are the consequences of the hybrid forms of warfare? Such as cyber- and psychological warfare, and economic sanctions.In order to understand the current state of affairs, the Information Wars series will focus on the larger historical, societal and cultural context of the relations between Ukraine and NATO member states on the one hand, and Russia on the other hand.Programme editors: Ianthe Mosselman and Dirk StruikZie het privacybeleid op https://art19.com/privacy en de privacyverklaring van Californië op https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Are we too negative about the economy? After last week's strong GDP figure - and some welcome news about productivity - Michael Thompson talks to economist Stephen Koukoulas about whether we're too quick to talk down the economy... and whether the green shoots can last.Find out more: https://fearandgreed.com.au/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The hospitality sector continues to show resilience despite global economic pressures that threaten to bring down sectors to pre-pandemic levels. According to Stats South Africa the tourism sector saw total arrivals reaching 8.92 Million in 2024, making a contribution of 8.8 percent to GDP. This has enabled the support of 1.68 Million jobs from hotel decor, furniture to textiles, food, beverages and guided experiences. Local producers and suppliers remain at the centre of making sure that tourists receive an authentic South African experience. Bonigiwe Zwane caught up with Happy Ngidi, Chief Marketing Officer at Proudly South Africa...

In this episode of the Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to break down the macro forces shaping today's markets and economy. Jim explains why the economy may be far weaker than headline GDP numbers suggest, how technology and AI investment are masking weakness in the broader economy, and why leadership in the stock market may be shifting. The conversation also explores the market implications of geopolitical conflict, the relationship between policy and market leadership, and how investors should think about AI's long-term economic impact.Topics covered in this episodeHow geopolitical events like the Iran conflict affect markets, volatility, oil prices, and investor sentimentWhy market reactions to geopolitical shocks often fade once the situation is “vetted” by investorsThe relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and global financial marketsWhy Paulsen remains constructive on international stocks and emerging markets despite recent volatilityWhy energy and food now represent a much smaller share of consumer spending than in past inflation cyclesThe argument that inflation fears may be overstated given structural disinflationary forces in the economyHow AI and technological innovation can destroy some jobs while simultaneously creating new economic demandWhy technological progress often lowers costs and expands markets rather than simply eliminating workThe concept that the “new economy” driven by technology investment is now large enough to influence overall GDP growthPaulsen's analysis showing that roughly 11 percent of the economy tied to new-era investment is growing rapidly while the remaining 89 percent is barely growingWhy the broader economy may resemble a recession even while headline GDP remains positiveHow the dominance of large technology companies in indexes like the S&P 500 may be masking weakness in the broader marketThe historical “toggle” between technology leadership and broader market leadership in equity marketsWhy policy conditions like the yield curve and monetary easing often drive leadership shifts toward value, small caps, and cyclical stocksWhether the Federal Reserve could begin easing policy without a traditional recessionWhy policy support may eventually broaden the bull market beyond technology stocksTimestamps0:00 Jim Paulsen on geopolitical volatility, oil prices, and market reactions2:50 How investors should think about the Iran conflict and market implications10:50 The relationship between oil prices, the US dollar, and safe-haven flows12:20 Why Paulsen likes international and emerging market stocks14:30 Why higher oil prices may not lead to sustained inflation18:40 AI disruption and the economic debate around jobs and productivity23:00 How innovation historically creates new demand and economic growth29:40 Technology is the tail wagging the economic dog33:30 Why the “new economy” is growing far faster than the rest of the economy37:00 Evidence that most of the economy may already resemble a recession41:00 Profit growth disparity between technology and the rest of the economy45:40 Why the stock market can mask weakness in the broader economy46:30 The historical leadership toggle between tech and the broader market49:00 Valuation differences between technology and other sectors50:30 How policy conditions influence market leadership55:00 Signs that leadership may already be shifting beyond tech57:00 Could the Fed ease without a traditional recession59:00 What a policy shift could mean for the next phase of the bull market

When it comes to one economic indicator, Canada is lagging behind one of the U.S.'s poorest states: Alabama. And while GDP per capita is an imperfect metric of wealth, Globe reporter Tim Kiladze went down to Alabama and found that there are some things the state has done that are worth taking note of. Tim joins the show to share what he saw down south, explore the criticisms of GDP per capita and respond to the reaction his reporting has generated. Questions? Comments? Ideas? Email us at thedecibel@globeandmail.com Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

– Responding to the SaaSpocalypse – Surprisingly good GDP numbers – The risks of a higher oil price… and the costsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China is expecting its GDP to grow by over six trillion yuan this year, which officials say will provide solid support for stabilizing employment, benefiting the people and preventing risks.

The head of the National Development and Reform Commission, China's top economic regulator, says the country's GDP is expected to grow by over six trillion yuan, or nearly 870 billion U.S. dollars, this year (01:20). Foreign diplomats and overseas media have spoken highly of China's ongoing Two Sessions and achievements over the past years (11:58). Beijing calls for de-escalating tensions in the Middle East while stepping up efforts to assist stranded Chinese nationals in the region (19:41).

Best Investment Strategy for 2026 Market Uncertainty | How to Protect and Grow Wealth in Uncertain Markets — In this episode of The Core Report Weekend Edition, Financial Journalist Govindraj Ethiraj speaks with Chintan Haria, Principal Investment Strategist at ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited, about how investors should think about investment strategy in 2026 as markets face rising uncertainty across geopolitics, trade tensions, commodities, inflation, global debt, and shifting capital flows.As volatility returns and the easy gains of recent years fade, investors everywhere are asking the same question: how do you protect and grow wealth in uncertain markets? In this conversation, we explore where to invest in 2026, how to build a resilient portfolio, and why asset allocation may matter more than stock picking alone.From stocks, gold, silver, fixed income, and hybrid funds to sector rotation, commodities, global markets, and India's economic growth, this episode provides a clear framework for navigating market volatility and investment decisions during uncertain times.Govindraj Ethiraj and Chintan Haria discuss the best investment strategy for 2026 market uncertainty, why protecting capital is critical in volatile markets, and how investors can think about portfolio diversification, wealth creation, and long-term investing. The discussion also covers India vs global investing, investor behaviour, sector opportunities, and the importance of disciplined asset allocation.Key topics covered in this episode include:(00:00) Introduction(01:20) Has Investment Strategy Really Changed in 2026?(03:48) Post‑COVID Euphoria Fades, New Cycles Emerge(06:00) Metals, Turbulence and Rethinking Portfolio Strategy (07:56) Sector Rotation and the IT Conundrum(12:02) Retail Investors Now Shape Market Behaviour(16:30) How ICICI AMC Applies Strategy Across Funds(19:10) Tracking the 650‑Stock Portfolio(20:30) India's Market Depth and New Listings(21:50) Capital Formation vs IPO Frenzy(23:25) The Next Wave of Emerging Themes(25:38) India's GDP as the Market's North Star(28:29) Stock Picking in a Fast‑Shifting Economy(29:58) Commodity Cycles and Marginal Cost of Extraction and Mining(31:30) Staying Calm Through Turbulent Markets(34:32) Global Money Printing and the Reset Ahead(38:20) Beyond SIPs: Hybrid Funds for Volatile Times(39:40) Fear vs Greed: What Drives Markets Today?With markets increasingly shaped by global debt, geopolitical tensions, and commodity cycles, this episode offers insights for investors looking to navigate volatility, build resilient portfolios, and make smarter investment decisions in 2026 and beyond.Whether you are a professional, investor, entrepreneur, or someone interested in business, finance, markets, and wealth creation, this episode of The Core Report will help you understand how smart investors approach uncertainty and long-term investing.Watch till the end for an important insight: fear in markets can create opportunity, but disciplined asset allocation remains the foundation of successful investing.Subscribe to The Core Report for more conversations on business, markets, economics, investing, and the forces shaping India and the global economy.

Brian Wieser, founder of Madison and Wall, joins Ari Paparo and Eric Franchi to discuss why the digital ad market is stronger than expected and what recent earnings reveal about platforms and ad tech companies. The conversation covers retail media growth, DSP competition, and how companies like Amazon, OpenAI, and The Trade Desk are approaching the next phase of advertising, along with Brian's view on AI's impact on agencies, CTV, and the broader ad ecosystem. Takeaways The digital ad market is strong, growing about 15 percent despite economic uncertainty. Ad growth is driven more by competition and new categories than by GDP. Retail media is expanding as retailers increase competition between brands. Agencies may benefit from AI, as marketers still need human guidance. AI platforms are starting to explore new advertising models. Chapters 00:00 Intro and Marketecture Live preview 03:10 The state of the digital advertising market 07:00 What drives ad market growth today 10:30 DSP competition and The Trade Desk's market share 15:00 Retail media growth and Walmart's momentum 20:30 AI disruption, SaaS concerns, and agencies 27:00 Streaming consolidation and CTV economics 33:40 OpenAI partnerships and the future of AI advertising 39:30 Amazon expanding its advertising ecosystem 45:00 AI marketing tools and Jeff Green's $150M Trade Desk stock purchase Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Conflict in the Middle East, a surge in oil and gas prices, and a surprise drop in US payrolls – it's been a turbulent week for the global economy.In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing, Capital Economics Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing joins David Wilder to discuss what the spreading Middle East conflict and sharp spike in energy prices mean for global growth and inflation, and why the latest US jobs report may not signal a major slowdown.Later, Senior Climate and Commodities Economist Kieran Tompkins explains the scale of disruption in global oil and gas markets, whether alternative supply can offset the shock and what the longer-term implications could be for energy markets.Read all our key insight into the Middle East conflict here:https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/iran-conflictGet in touch for a trial to our platform:podcast@capitaleconomics.com

The Administration tells us that a new "Golden Age" for the American economy is now underway, and that we should see substantial material incremental GDP growth this year from the policies it has put in place through acts like the One Big Beautiful Bill, tax relief, deregulation, tariffs and new trade deals purported to bring $trillions of new foreign investment into the US.Today's guest, however, is much more skeptical of the promise of these policies as well as the overall prospects for the economy.And now the US is at war with Iran. How will that impact the situation?For guidance, we turn to highly-respected economist & award-winning researcher David Rosenberg, founder & president of Rosenberg Research.LAST CHANCE! REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT PRICE at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#bearmarket #marketcorrection #jobs _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

We have had some extremely distinguished guests over the last 6 years, but we haven't secured one who combines, a Rhodes Scholar, US Army Colonel, Counter terrorism expert, leading the US's cyber intelligence defence agency, and a lecturer at Oxford and beyond, whilst also having worked at Morgan Stanley, and now CEO at RSAC. Jen plots a journey from Oxford to Westpoint, from Colonel of the US's first Cyber Battalion to the Whitehouse, working under Condoleezza Rice and then chosen by President Biden to create CISA, The US's first cyber defense agency.In a whirlwind, world-wide tour, Jen plots the risks, defines the adversaries, reflects on intelligence, cooperation, and the real and present cyber risks to industries.She offers advice to boards, the existential risks for businesses who think this is just a “technology issue” and leaves us with a stark observation. If the cost of annual cybercrimes were aggregated into one number, it would be equivalent in GDP terms to being the third largest economy in the world! The Money Maze Podcast is kindly sponsored by Schroders, IFM Investors, World Gold Council and LSEG.Sign up to our Newsletter | Follow us on LinkedIn | Watch on YouTube 

How you show up in the world matters more than you may realize

DescriptionIn this episode, Dave "CAC" Kellogg and Ray "Growth" Rike go point-counterpoint on two high-profile articles making waves across Wall Street and Silicon Valley: Citrini's provocative February 2025 report, The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis, and Citadel's rebuttal, The 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis.Dave and Ray unpack whether AI is truly triggering an unprecedented economic collapse or whether Citrini's dark simulation is, as one economist put it, just "a scary bedtime story." They dig into the SaaS private credit contagion theory, the historic parallels of labor displacement, the role of government regulation, and why this particular AI scare hits closer to home than any previous tech disruption. As always, the brothers bring the receipts, including nearly 20 sources and 20 hours of research - so you don't have to.Full Episode Summary:Dave Kellogg and Ray Rike open by framing the episode as a tale of two AI futures: Citrini's alarming speculative simulation versus Citadel's data-driven rebuttal.The Citrini Case (Bear Case): Published February 22nd, Citrini's report simulates a scenario in which rapid AI agent adoption triggers a global intelligence crisis by mid-2028 featuring 10.2% unemployment and a 38% drop in the S&P 500. The report argues AI is categorically different from prior technology waves because it displaces cognitive workers, who represent roughly 75% of U.S. labor income.Citrini further warns that SaaS, already accounting for 23% - 25% of the $3 trillion U.S. private credit market could become the chip in the windshield that cracks the broader financial system, with ripple effects into insurance and the broader economy. Dave and Ray note that Citrini's word choices ran 3.4-to-1 negative, and flag that the firm may hold short positions — characterizing the piece as well-crafted "bear porn."The Citadel Rebuttal (Bull Case): Two days later, Citadel, a $65B AUM asset manager with 35 years of credibility responded with a data-driven defense. Software engineering jobs are up since January 2024, AI CapEx is 2% of GDP and AI-adjacent commodity pricing is up 65%. Citadel argues AI follows historical S-curve adoption patterns, that "recursive capability doesn't equal recursive adoption," and that technology has always complemented rather than replaced labor - pointing to Microsoft Office as a historical analogue.Dave and Ray's Take: Both hosts find Citadel more credible, but acknowledge real displacement risks ahead. Their key insight: the reason this particular AI scare is generating 10x more fear than past labor disruptions (auto workers, telephone operators, elevator operators) is that this time it's us — white-collar knowledge workers facing displacement. Ray adds that blue-collar jobs (truck drivers, Uber drivers, warehouse workers) face equal or greater long-term risk from AI plus robotics, but those disruptions don't generate the same visceral fear in the media and investor class. Both agree the timing of adoption is the biggest unknown. Long-term, history favors the Citadel view. Short-term, the transition could be painful.On Government Response: Dave and Ray agree that political and regulatory intervention is inevitable if unemployment spikes materially, whether through labor protections, AI regulation, or fiscal stimulus.On Economists' Reactions: Real economists, including Noah Smith (Noahpinion) and Wharton's Jeremy Siegel, largely dismissed the Citrini piece, wi Siegel arguing that productivity gains generate new income and demand, Smith calling it a "scary bedtime story." Dave's takeaway for operators: let the Metrics Brothers do the 20 hours of reading so you don't have to.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

On this week's episode of The Liquidity Event, Shane and AJ break down the viral "Settrini Report," a fictional yet plausible AI scenario that rattled markets and raised serious questions about productivity, white-collar job displacement, and the future of labor's share of GDP. They discuss whether AI pricing is sustainable, what new data center infrastructure means for small-town America, and why we may be closer than ever to a zero-employee unicorn company. The conversation then shifts to the ethics and economics of organ donor compensation, including whether families should be reimbursed for funeral expenses and how incentives shape real-world outcomes. The episode wraps with a Reddit debate about paying 1.25% on a $10 million portfolio, what that fee should actually buy you, and why behavioral discipline often matters more than cost. Key Timestamps: 01:52 – How the "Settrini Report" went viral and moved markets 04:18 – AI agents replacing $180K product managers 07:02 – What happens if labor's share of GDP collapses 09:40 – Is AI pricing real, or just VC-subsidized for now? 12:11 – AI infrastructure, power plants, and small-town impact 15:03 – The rise of the zero-employee unicorn founder 18:27 – Organ donor compensation and the ethics debate 22:10 – How other countries structure organ donor incentives 24:54 – Paying 1.25% on a $10M portfolio… is it worth it? 28:41 – Market volatility, geopolitical tension, and staying disciplined

Corn and wheat slip while beans hold steady; Middle East war has markets on edge; China import demand expected to slip as they lower GDP targets; winter wheat crop condition update.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister says Iran has not sent any messages to the US to end the conflict, but are instead focused on self defence efforts, according to Sky News Arabia.Deputy Commander of the Iranian Army Central Command said Iran has not closed the Strait of Hormuz; IRGC struck a US oil tanker while announcing US, Israeli and European vessels are not allowed through the strait. European bourses trade mixed, STMicroelectronics surges on new chip; US equity futures softer despite positive AVGO earnings.DXY back on a firmer footing, antipodeans lag on China's new growth target and metals prices.Fixed benchmarks lower as energy prices continue to drive price action.Crude benchmarks remain firmer; Spot gold trades slightly firmer, whilst base metals are lower after China forecasts lowest GDP figure since 1991.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Job Cuts (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Jan), Jobless Claims, South Korean CPI (Feb), ECB Minutes (Feb), Speakers including ECB President Lagarde & Fed's Bowman, Earnings from Marvell, Costco, Kroger & Victoria's Secret.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks rebounded from yesterday's sell-off as the region took impetus from the positive handover from Wall Street, where the Nasdaq led the advances on tech strength, while geopolitics remained in focus.US President Trump said they are in a very strong position, and that Iran's missiles and launchers are being wiped out, while he added that they will continue forward.Iranian Foreign Minister says Washington will regret targeting Iranian frigate in international waters, Sky News Arabia reported.China set its 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5%-5.0%, as expected (prev. ‘around 5%'), and CPI at around 2%, while it plans to issue CNY 800bln in new policy financing tools and aims to create more than 12mln urban jobs.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.9% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.7% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish CPIF prelim. (Feb), EZ Retail Sales (Jan), US Challenger Job Cuts (Feb), US Export/Import Prices (Jan), Jobless Claims, South Korean CPI (Feb), ECB Minutes (Feb) & BoE's DMP, Speakers including ECB President Lagarde, de Guindos & Fed's Bowman, Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from Marvell, Costco, Kroger, JD.com & Victoria's Secret.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China is targeting growth of 4.5 to 5 percent in 2026 and a 3.8 percent cut in carbon emissions per unit of GDP, as the country outlines plans to foster new growth drivers and expand opening-up (01:07). China's top legislature is reviewing its first Ecological and Environmental Code, a 1,200-article draft covering pollution, ecology, climate governance, and a pioneering green development chapter (14:38). China will send a special envoy to the Middle East to help restore regional stability, as Iran bans U.S., Israeli and European vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz (25:49).

GDP is meant to measure economic progress, yet even war can make it rise. So what exactly is it measuring?

China on Thursday unveiled major development targets for the 2026-2030 period as a government work report was submitted to the country's top legislature for deliberation.5日提请全国人大审议的政府工作报告，明确了中国2026年至2030年的主要发展目标。Over the next five years, China expects to keep its GDP growth within an appropriate range, with annual growth rates to be determined in light of actual conditions, according to the report.根据报告，未来五年，中国将保持国内生产总值增长处于合理区间，并视实际情况确定年度增长目标。This will lay a solid foundation for achieving the goal of doubling China's 2020 per capita GDP by 2035 to reach the level of a moderately developed country, the report said.报告称，这将为到2035年人均国内生产总值比2020年翻一番、达到中等发达国家水平打好基础。To pursue innovation-led and green development, China projects an annual average increase of at least 7 percent in nationwide R&D spending, and envisages a total reduction of 17 percent in carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP between 2026 and 2030, it said.报告指出，为追求创新驱动和绿色发展，中国预计全社会研发经费投入年均增长7%以上，并计划在2026年至2030年间实现单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放累计降低17%。China also proposes raising the value added of core digital economy industries to 12.5 percent of GDP and life expectancy to 80 years, according to the report.报告提出，中国还将数字经济核心产业增加值占国内生产总值比重提升至12.5%，人均预期寿命提高到80岁。To ensure effective implementation of the objectives and tasks of the 15th Five-Year Plan, China proposes a total of 109 major projects in six areas, ranging from steering the development of new quality productive forces to ensuring and improving public well-being, the report said.为确保"十五五"规划目标任务有效落实，报告提出，从引领新质生产力发展到保障和改善民生，中国将在六大领域推进109个重大工程项目。envisage /ɪnˈvɪzɪdʒ/展望，设想life expectancy /ˈlaɪf ɪkˌspektənsi/人均预期寿命improving public well-being /ɪmˈpruːvɪŋ ˈpʌblɪk ˈwelˌbiːɪŋ/增进民生福祉

As our governments, institutions, and the public become more aware of the increasing pressures on material and energy availability, we've simultaneously seen powerful ripple effects for industrial policy, economic planning, and geopolitical dynamics. Parallel to this story are evolving strategies unique to each nation as new lines of power emerge alongside the trends of artificial intelligence, competing demands for rare earth metals, and an increasingly unstable global power balance that underpins all of it. How have these seemingly disparate factors combined to influence recent international events – and how can understanding them help us forecast the future of global governance and power?  In this episode, Nate is joined by financial and economic analysts, Craig Tindale and Michael Every, to discuss the widespread implications of growing geopolitical tensions over scarce resources and the rapidly changing foreign policy and economic statecraft that countries are implementing in response. Importantly, Craig and Michael emphasize the centrality of China and the U.S. as the two superpowers reshaping global alliances, and how industrial capacity and material constraints underpin each move made in their pursuit for dominance. Ultimately, they emphasize the need for clarity and realignment of the goals for economic and industrial policy as we leave behind the era of growth and grapple with a simplifying world. What can the long overlooked story of rare earth metals, energy resources, and industrial capacity tell us about ongoing geopolitical events? How might continued AI development play a key role in the future of economic statecraft and the international balance of power? And finally, how should we re-think what economic growth actually serves in an era of resource constraints, geopolitical competition, and ecological crisis? In other words, what is GDP truly for? (And what is GPT really for?)   About Craig Tindale: Craig Tindale is a private investor who has spent nearly four decades working in software development, business strategy, and infrastructure planning, including in leadership positions at Telstra, Oracle, and IBM. Additionally, he has direct experience working in East-to-West supply chains, including as the CEO and Asia Regional Director for DataDirect Technologies.  He's now pivoted to investing in groundbreaking ideas such as drone reforestation through Air Seed Technologies, and uses his knowledge of Chinese industrial strategy and Western tech demand to identify the choke points in Critical Metals markets. Most recently he released the white paper, Critical Materials: A Strategic Analysis, which offers a systems synthesis on how the race for rare earths and the return of material constraints is shaping geopolitical relationships.    About Michael Every: Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis.  Michael has over two decades of experience working as an Economist and Strategist. Before Rabobank, he was a Director at Silk Road Associates in Bangkok, Senior Economist and Fixed Income Strategist at the Royal Bank of Canada in both London and Sydney, and an Economist for Dun & Bradstreet in London.   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners  

“We should all be able to look at the numbers and agree that this is not sustainable and that whatever we've been doing is not working. Democrats have had their chance, and Republicans have had their chance, and it's only gotten worse.” — Halle TeccoWarren Buffett called America's healthcare costs “a hungry tapeworm on the American economy.” That tapeworm now devours nearly a fifth of the nation's GDP—and the patient, as always, is on the table. We dedicate today's show to this most perennial of all America's problems, with two guests and two new books that approach the tragi-comedy from different angles.Self-styled innovation wonk Halle Tecco—founder of Rock Health, investor in over fifty digital health companies, professor at Columbia Business School—argues in Massively Better Healthcare that the system is both excessively public and excessively private, a Kafkaesque bureaucracy in which verticalized health plans now own the PBMs, the pharmacies, and increasingly the doctors. The result is monopoly medicine on a scale that would have appalled the original trust-busters.This is ultimately an antitrust story. As we've discussed on the show with Tim Wu, Biden's chief antitrust enforcer, the concentration of corporate power is the great unfinished business of American democracy. Tecco makes the case that Big Med is where the trust busters should go next after Big Tech. UnitedHealth is now one of the largest employers of doctors in the country. So it wasn't exactly shocking when the UnitedHealth CEO was assassinated two years ago. The system isn't broken, Tecco suggests. It's working exactly as designed—just not for patients.Surgeon Robin Blackstone, MD, author of Doctor AI: Reimagining Health. Rebuilding Trust. Delivering Health 4.0, joins us in the second half of the show to offer a view from the front lines. After 30 years as a surgeon, Blackstone confirms everything Tecco diagnoses—and adds a chilling detail of her own: the system is priced entirely for fixing illness, not preventing it. Her prescription is a “triangle of trust” between patient, physician, and AI—with the patient finally owning their own data.Both agree on one thing: every dollar spent on public health saves $14.30 in medical and societal costs. We are all already paying for all the waste. We just need to fix Big Med. But who's going to do it? Tecco says that America is ready for another round of Obamacare politics. But I'm not so sure. Five Takeaways•       Healthcare Is a Tale of Two Civilizations: If you're wealthy, you go to UCSF and get the best care in the world. If you're not, you're one of the 100 million Americans without a regular primary care provider. Healthcare debt is the number one cause of bankruptcy. A person earning $30,000 in a rural county can expect to live a full decade less than someone earning $100,000 in an affluent suburb.•       The Real Winners Are Monopoly Medicine: Verticalized health plans now own the PBMs, the pharmacies, and increasingly the providers. The ACA's profit cap forced them to grow the pie instead of getting more efficient. United is now one of the largest employers of doctors in the country. Independent pharmacies are closing at the rate of one per day. Rite Aid is bankrupt—the only major chain not owned by a health plan.•       Every $1 in Public Health Saves $14.30: We're already paying for the crisis—in emergency room visits, lost productivity, and disability. We just need to move the safety net upstream. Public health is the only part of the system designed for prevention, yet its share of total health spending has dropped 25% in two decades. The economic case is overwhelming. The political will is not.•       AI Could Break the Information Asymmetry: Patients are already using ChatGPT to diagnose themselves—and sometimes it's saving their lives. One woman caught her own pneumonia because her doctor couldn't see her for a week. But some doctors want to keep the paternalism: one AI tool built on medical journals is restricted to clinicians only because making it available to patients would “piss off the doctors.”•       The System Is Priced for Rescue, Not Health: Everything is loaded to the moment your gallbladder goes bad or your heart gets a blockage. Prevention doesn't get paid for. Both guests agree: we need a massive re-pricing that rewards keeping people healthy, not just treating them when they're sick. That means paying doctors to prevent strokes, not just to fix them. About the GuestsHalle Tecco is the founder of the venture fund Rock Health and an investor in more than fifty digital health companies. She is an adjunct professor at Columbia Business School and a course director at Harvard Medical School. Her new book is Massively Better Healthcare: The Innovator's Guide to Tackling Healthcare's Biggest Challenges (Columbia University Press).Robin Blackstone, MD, is a physician, health systems architect, and founder of Blackstone Health. A surgeon by training with 30 years of clinical experience, she is the author of Doctor AI: Reimagining Health. Rebuilding Trust. Delivering Health 4.0.ReferencesPrevious Keen On episodes and authors mentioned:•       Robert Pearl on how AI will be monetized in the healthcare industry•       Tim Wu on the extractive economics of platform capitalism•       Zeke Emanuel on which country has the world's best healthcare•       Warren Buffett on healthcare costs as “a hungry tapeworm on the American economy”About Keen On AmericaNobody asks more awkward questions than the Anglo-American writer and filmmaker Andrew Keen. In Keen On America, Andrew brings his pointed Transatlantic wit to making sense of the United States—hosting daily interviews about the history and future of this now venerable Republic. With nearly 2,800 episodes since the show launched on TechCrunch in 2010, Keen On America is the most prolific intellectual interview show in the history of podcasting.WebsiteSubstackYouTubeApple Podcasts

SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves speaks with Harry Murphy Cruise from Oxford Economics about the impact of the Middle East war on the Australian economy, even as GDP expands at its fastest rate in almost three years. Plus Niv Dagan from Peak Asset Management on the day's sharemarket news including the market's reaction to ARN Media's decision to pull the Kyle and Jackie O show.

New Zealand's economic recovery could be put at risk by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Westpac modelling shows if it was to stay closed for a month, it would put inflation over 4% and knock half a percent off GDP. Senior Economist Kelly Eckhold told Mike Hosking we're much more vulnerable than Australia when it comes to energy. He says we only have a few weeks of key petroleum products sitting in the tanks, and after that we're relying on boats turning up to meet our needs. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Hong Kong/China Transportation & Infrastructure Analyst Qianlei Fan discusses how China's travel industry is shifting from a post-pandemic rebound to a multi-year expansion.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Qianlei Fan, Morgan Stanley's Hong Kong / China Transportation Analyst. Today, I'll share my thoughts on why travel is quickly emerging as one of [the] key drivers of China's economic rebalancing.It's Tuesday, March the 3rd, at 2pm in Hong Kong. I've just gotten back from my Lunar New Year trip to mainland China. With the longest Chinese New Year break in history, people were out roaming, exploring, laughing, and the whole country felt like it was buzzing with people on a mission to enjoy every minute. According to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, total domestic tourism spending recorded a robust 19 percent year-on-year growth during the holiday. In fact, China's tourism industry isn't just rebounding after the pandemic. It's entering a structurally stronger phase, supported by policy tailwinds, demographic shifts, and a clear pivot toward experience-driven consumption. By 2030, tourism revenue could reach RMB 12 trillion – equal to roughly USD $1.7 trillion – implying 11 percent annual growth from the mid-2020s. Over the next five years, cumulative domestic and inbound revenue may approach RMB 50 trillion, or USD $7.2 trillion. That scale makes travel more than a cyclical recovery – it's becoming a core pillar of China's consumption-led growth. We expect tourism's share of GDP to rise to about 6.7 percent by 2030, up from 4.8 percent in 2024.Domestic travel remains the backbone. People aren't just traveling again; they're traveling more than before. Policy is reinforcing demand. Extended public holidays, new school breaks, and event-driven tourism are boosting activity. In 2025 alone, around 3,000 large-scale performances attracted more than 43 million attendees. And spending reflects that shift. Domestic tourism spending reached RMB 6.3 trillion in 2025, about 11 percent above pre-COVID levels. Even with slightly lower spend per trip, more frequent travel is lifting overall revenue.International travel is emerging as a second growth engine. By 2030, inbound travel could represent 16 percent of total tourism revenue. In late 2025, inbound visitor growth in major cities was up about 30–50 percent year-over-year, supported by expanded visa-free access, which now accounts for the majority of foreign arrivals. These visitors often stay longer and spend more. Outbound travel is strengthening too. International air traffic grew 22 percent in 2025, far outpacing domestic growth, and now contributes a meaningful share of airline revenue. Demographics and technology are reinforcing the trend. Younger consumers prioritize travel, while older households – with substantial savings – are beginning to spend more as services improve. At the same time, smart hotels, virtual reality attractions, and data-driven operations are enhancing engagement and willingness to pay. This isn't just pent-up demand. It's policy, demographics, technology, and supply aligning at once. – with travel at the center of China's consumption story.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors for a wide-ranging discussion on geopolitical risk, AI and productivity, capital flows, credit markets, fiscal policy, and the shift from US to international equities. Andy walks through the framework he uses to evaluate uncertainty, from wars and geopolitical shocks to the long-term implications of artificial intelligence, and explains why capital markets and funding conditions may matter more than bold narratives. We also explore growth, inflation, Fed policy, and the structural case for global diversification in today's macro environment.Main topics coveredA practical framework for analyzing geopolitical shocks, including red flags, green flags, and how to evaluate information quality during times of uncertaintyHow markets are pricing the current conflict with Iran across oil, equities, bonds, gold, and volatilityWhy historical market performance after wars may offer limited predictive value due to small sample sizesHow to think about AI from a macro perspective, including GDP growth versus GDP share and who ultimately captures the gainsThe capital markets implications of massive AI-related capex and whether equity and credit markets can fund current spending plansGrowth, inflation, and the Fed: how fiscal stimulus, wealth effects, QT, and labor market trends are shaping the current macro backdropWhy Andy has shifted away from US assets toward international markets, including the role of bond yields and global risk parityA critical look at the Trump accounts proposal and the broader issue of fiscal deficits and capital allocationThe key risks Andy is watching over the next three to six months, especially around credit markets and funding conditionsTimestamps00:00 Introduction and overview of discussion topics01:01 Framework for evaluating geopolitical shocks and information quality11:46 Market reaction to the Iran conflict and asset pricing implications23:00 Why historical war data may not be reliable for market forecasting27:03 How to analyze AI's impact on productivity and economic growth37:00 AI capex, credit markets, and funding risks42:24 Growth, inflation, and Fed policy in the current cycle49:20 The case for international equities over US markets56:20 Trump accounts, fiscal policy, and capital allocation01:02:23 What Andy is watching most closely in the months ahead

What industry has the annual impact of $3.5 trillion to U.S. GDP, generates $1.3 trillion in personal earnings and supports 20.4 million jobs?  CRE, of course! Join us as Marc Selvitelli CEO of NAIOP discusses highlights of their 2026 economic impact report with broker and show host Michael Bull, CCIM. Discussions include a behind the curtain look at office, industrial, retail, multifamily and data centers.  TCN Worldwide Real Estate Services - A global network of over 1,500 leading commercial real estate professionals delivering integrated, expert sales, leasing, management and consulting services across 200 U.S. and global markets. https://www.tcnworldwide.com/ Buildout - Aconnected software platform built for commercial real estate brokerages—combining CRM, marketing, data, and back-office automation. https://www.buildout.com Bull Realty, TCN Worldwide - Commercial Real Estate Asset & Occupancy Solutions in Atlanta and throughout the Southeast U.S. https://www.bullrealty.com/ Commercial Agent Success Strategies - Twenty-one cloud accessed commercial broker training videos with slide deck action notes. Learn more at https://www.commercialagentsuccess.com/  

Abortion and LGBTQ issues have zero traction in politics any more. So should we jettison social conservatism for fiscal? Kevin talks with Bill Jack about the utter lack of substance behind Republican fiscal policy. We're doing worse on the deficit-to-GDP ratio in this fiscal year than Biden did in every year of his office. So what should we do when conservatives don't care about social sins, and are more liberal on spending than liberals?

In today's episode on 4th March 2026, we break down India's revised GDP estimates, the new measurement framework, and the hows and whys behind it.⁠Book a FREE call with Ditto⁠

In this episode of the Revolutionize Your Retirement Interview with Experts series, host Dori Mintzer speaks with Dr. Linda P. Fried, a global leader in healthy aging, about why rising longevity is a hard-won success rather than a crisis, how the shift to older populations is transforming societies worldwide, what older adults most want from later life (independence, purpose, learning, contribution, and mattering), and the many often-unseen ways older people already bolster economies and communities through work, caregiving, and volunteering, challenging fear-based narratives like the “old-age dependency ratio” and the impact of ageism and age segregation.Key topics discussedThe value of longer lives and demographic change: Public health advances have added decades to average life expectancy, bringing the U.S. to the brink of having 20% of its population over 65 and creating a new demographic reality shared by many countries.What older adults want: Global and U.S. studies show older people consistently prioritize aging in place, avoiding being a burden, maintaining relationships, having purpose, lifelong learning opportunities, respected voices in community life, and roles where they truly matter.Mattering, retirement, and mental health: Research highlighted in the Wall Street Journal finds many retirees feel less valued, needed, and connected, with loss of mattering predicting post‑retirement depression and illustrating how identity and health are tied to meaningful roles.Economic and civic contributions of older adults: Older people's paid work and volunteering together are estimated to equal roughly 7% of U.S. GDP, while economic evidence shows older workers strengthen rather than crowd out opportunities for younger workers.Ageism, age segregation, and distorted narratives: Dominant policy tools such as the old‑age dependency ratio frame older adults as dependents, reinforcing ageist beliefs and obscuring real contributions, especially in a highly age‑segregated society where generations rarely mix.Capabilities and assets of later life: Science increasingly documents that aging can bring new cognitive strengths (complex problem analysis, values‑based judgment, breaking problems into steps), greater prosocial motivation, generosity, emotional balance, capacity for conflict mediation, and a generative drive to leave the world better.Connect with Dr. Linda P. FriedLinkedIn: Linda P. FriedLearn more: Columbia UniversityWhat to do next: Click to grab our free guide, 10 Key Issues to Consider as You Explore Your Retirement Transition Please leave a review at Apple Podcasts. Join our Revolutionize Your Retirement group on Facebook.

Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society.   In this episode, Justin interviews Randy Nornes, the 2025 Harry and Dorothy Goodell Award Winner, about his career. They talk about uncertainty and a long-term approach to risk. Randy won the 2025 Goodell Award for his lifetime achievements. He is a problem solver. Randy advises risk professionals not to focus on what they did yesterday, but on what is happening today, and to stay current with risks such as AI and cyber risk. Randy talks about how staying with Aon for years has given him the latitude to look across the company and focus on the next risk. Listen for tips on laying the groundwork before the risks.   Key Takeaways: [:01] About RIMS and RIMScast. [:16] About this episode of RIMScast. Our guest is 2025 Goodell Award Winner Randy Nornes. We will learn all about his fascinating career and his risk philosophies. But first… [:42] RIMS Virtual Workshops. On March 10th and 11th, we have a two-day course led by John Button for the RIMS-CRMP Exam Prep. [:53] On March 17th and 18th, RIMS will align with AFERM for a two-day RIMS-CRMP-FED Exam Prep Course. [1:01] On March 4th and 5th, we have a virtual workshop, "Facilitating Risk-Based Decision Making", with Joe Milan. On April 15th, we have a virtual workshop covering "Emerging Risks", led by Joseph Mayo. [1:18] Register today and strengthen your risk knowledge. RIMS members always enjoy deep discounts on the virtual workshops. [1:26] Webinars. On March 6th, RIMS presents "Hard Hats & High Stakes: Women Leaders Shaping Construction Risk Management". We'll be joined by a Chief Risk Officer, an underwriter, and a broker. [1:40] They will explore their career paths, risk and safety philosophies, and lend some insight as to why this is the time for the next generation of leaders to rise. [1:51] For a quick preview, check out last week's episode with Cynthia Garcia. She is the Chief Risk Officer from Bernards, who will be joining us on that exciting panel. [2:00] On March 12th, Global Risk Consultants returns with "Don't Waste the Soft Market: Where to Reinvest Insurance Savings Before the Window Closes". Register for these and other webinars by visiting RIMS.org/webinars and the links in this episode's show notes. [2:20] On with the Show! Our guest today, Randy Nornes, is the 2025 Harry and Dorothy Goodel Award Winner. [2:29] Named after the first President of RIMS and his wife, the Harry and Dorothy Goodell Award honors an individual who has furthered the goals of risk management and the Society through outstanding service and lifetime achievement. [2:41] Randy Nornes exemplifies all that and more. He has been with Aon for 38-plus years. Currently, Randy is the Executive Vice President and Enterprise Client Partner for Technology, Media, and the Communications Industry. He has done some volunteer work, which we will talk about. [3:00] Randy has a fascinating career. We're going to learn about it as well as his leadership style, his risk philosophy, and how he is keeping Aon at the forefront of AI innovation. [3:09] [If you've been to RISKWORLD, you've seen Randy in the halls and the educational sessions. He has been an ever-present force there. And he is a highly-regarded member of the Chicago RIMS Chapter. Let's get to it! [3:23] Interview! 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes, welcome to RIMScast! [3:44] Randy is proud of that award. He wonders, after receiving a lifetime achievement award, what's next? Retirement? Should he write a book? [4:11] On the day of the award, Randy was backstage with Martha Stewart and had a chance to visit with her and discuss risk management. [4:21] Randy's wife and one of his sons were in the audience. When Martha Stewart came out and spoke, she referred to their conversation. Randy gained credibility at home that Martha Stewart listened to what he had to say! [4:52] Justin says that RISKWORLD 2025 was fantastic! Randy says he has probably attended three dozen RISKWORLD conferences. He says they get better and are different every time. You can see, decade by decade, what's important. [5:31] There is a wonderful profile on Randy Nornes, written by Russ Banham, in the special Awards edition of RIMS Risk Management Magazine. It is still available online. That's how Justin got to know Randy Nornes before this interview. [5:57] Randy always tries to link up with what the next big thing is. Since late 2025, Randy has been leading Aon's AI infrastructure efforts, from the financing of data centers, to the construction, to the development, to the operation, and to the energy attached to that.  [6:28] AI is the next big thing. Randy says that 40% of GDP is coming through the lens of building AI infrastructure. Aon has a big team for it, and that's what Randy does every day. He says it's massive, exciting, and relentless. [7:03] Randy says, Because it's coming so fast and furious, it's not something you have time to sit back and think about. He says we're seeing this thing evolve week by week. It's global. Risk management is at the center of making it all work. [7:27] Randy says there's a different lens depending on where you sit in the AI infrastructure world. Everyone is thinking about the risks of the construction, the operation, the access to power, and the climate. It's all melded into one thing. [7:48] Randy calls the Chicago RIMS Chapter big and vibrant. Chicago is unique in having representation from so many different industries. It's not highly concentrated. People have a lot of lenses to look at risks through. It makes for good conversations. [8:11] Justin notes that last year's Risk Manager of the Year, Jennifer Pack, was from Chicago. The Rising Star, Megan Smalter, was originally from Chicago. Randy has spent time on the West and East Coasts, and he finds the Chicago Chapter unique, with 25 different industries. [8:49] Justin gives a shout-out to Julie Bean, the 2024 Heart of RIMS Award Winner. Justin says Randy is in great company. The talent coming out of Chicago brings something special to RIMS. [9:27] Randy was going to be a banker. A banker manages risk around lending and projects. It's not a huge leap to get to the world of risk management from there. [9:44] In the 1980s, it was a turbulent time for banking. We had just come out of a tough inflationary period, with real estate bankruptcies and banks and savings and loans going under. His advisor told him not to go into banking. [10:18] Randy interviewed someone from Chubb. Chubb was scaling up a new product, Directors' and Officers' insurance. Randy was good at case studies in business school. Underwriting D&O insurance is a case study. Randy thought he could do that job. [10:54] Randy started at Chubb and ended where he is today. In 1987, Randy moved to Frank B. Hall, acquired by Aon in 1992. He was young and a good worker, so he was kept by the company. He says it was a trip working alongside Pat Ryan and learning the business at Chubb. [11:48] Pat Ryan took Randy and others under his wing. He is a great mentor. Randy credits him for access. Randy mentions other early supporters, Al Diamond and Skip Dunn. With Pat Ryan, Randy was always looking for the next big risk to come along or a new framework. [13:00] In the 1990s, governance, Sarbanes-Oxley, and enterprise risk frameworks came to the forefront, following bankruptcies of major companies that had appeared to be successful. [13:28] When enterprise risk became a thing, it needed frameworks. That led Randy to build one of the first enterprise-risk-focused teams to help companies think about it. This was before COSO. [13:55] Randy says a lot of the clients they dealt with in those early days were in industries where someone had already gone through some trauma, and they wanted to make sure they weren't next up. It was a lot of, "Hurry up and make sure we're OK!" [14:26] Randy says, in the 1990s, they were doing risk modeling. The reinsurance teams had risk models that ran on AS400 mainframe computers. They had to book computing time to run a scenario with a set of assumptions. They would run 10,000 simulations in a day. [14:55] If they wanted to change the assumptions, they had to book another time. [15:02] Now it's all on the laptop. The quality of data is significantly higher. They can do it in real time. Risk managers today may not recognize how lucky they are. [15:24] Randy says, We're always trying to decide what problem we're trying to solve for and what we know about that particular issue. The modeling is the entry point to know what to do or what matters. [16:10] Randy thinks risk is a terrible word. We risk professionals have a hard time communicating with people who aren't in our space when we use the word risk. Everyone has a different definition of risk. Randy says everyone can get on board with certainty and uncertainty. [16:34] Randy says, what we're doing with modeling is trying to understand what the distance between certainty and uncertainty looks like. Then, we have to decide what's comfortable and where our tolerance is. Then, decide what to do with the part that we want to get rid of. [16:48] That's at the core of risk management, and it hasn't changed in decades. The tools we have now have changed dramatically. [16:56] Justin cites Christy Kaufman from the profile article, who said that Randy is far more than a traditional broker; he is a thought partner and a problem-solver. Justin asks what allows Randy to move beyond transactional work into a strategic advisory mindset. [17:19] Randy says insurance is a complete waste of money, unless you can show how you're adding value. You can get there by showing this uncertainty spectrum and understanding it. [17:58] Randy says the mindset is, "I've parachuted in. What do we have going on?" If I did that today, I'd be looking at supply chain issues. It's amazing when you have that lens. Early on, he looked at a supply chain that was "perfect, end-to-end" on spreadsheets. [18:27] Everything was manually entered. Managers were judged on average inventory levels, and wanted to keep the levels as low as possible. To game the system, they ran inventory at the lowest level.  [18:57] They would raise the inventory at the end of the month to make it look like they were on target. It was not a real-time inventory. It looked like risk management was fine, but the chance of a stockout or a long-term impact was pretty great. [19:24] A Quick Break! RISKWORLD 2026 will be held from May 3rd through the 6th in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. RISKWORLD attracts more than 10,000 risk professionals across the globe. It's time to Connect, Cultivate, and Collaborate with them. [19:43] Booth sales are open now. General registration and speaker registration are also open right now. Marketplace and hospitality badges will be available starting on March 3rd. Links are in this episode's show notes, and be sure to check out RIMS.org for more information. [20:02] Save the dates March 18th and 19th, 2026, for the RIMS Legislative Summit, which will be held in Washington, D.C.! Join us in Washington, D.C. for two days of Congressional meetings, networking, and advocating on behalf of the risk management community. [20:19] Visit RIMS.org/advocacy for more information and to register. Also, check out the prior episode of RIMScast, Episode 378, featuring RIMS General Counsel and Vice President of External Affairs, Mark Prysock, as we discuss the top priorities for RIMS in 2026 and beyond. [20:39] The Second Annual RIMS Texas Regional Conference will be held in San Antonio from August 10th through August 12th. [20:46] The call for submissions for educational sessions is open through March 18th. Check out the link in this episode's show notes and make a pitch! Hopefully, you get selected, and we'll see you in San Antonio! [20:59] Let's Return to Our Interview with 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes! [21:19] Justin asks how Randy delivers good or bad news to a high-level executive. Randy says he was gifted by his radio announcer father with a very calm demeanor. You're delivering what it is, based on some fact. Randy has had to deliver a lot of crazy facts over the years. [22:29] Early in his career, Randy had a financial institution client. They had some major issues. He was standing outside the boardroom, ready to go in to tell them whether they had insurance or not. They did not. He was on the phone with London, working out some coverage. [23:28] He got the message while he was in there that they had managed to land something for the client, so he could pivot. His colleagues said they couldn't believe how calm he had been, going in. [24:11] Randy says it's best to set the landscape with executives before extra risk is taken, showing alternatives and strategy, so if something happens, it was foreseen, you were just unlucky in that year. [24:53] If you hadn't done the front-end work and gotten everybody onboard to see why it was the right strategy, then the news of unanticipated issues gets a lot harder to deliver. [25:04] There's a lot of front-end work to do. To drop bad news on people without any prep is going to be a lot harder. Being transparent and on the same page, especially with finance people, makes communication easy. This flows up to the CFO and higher. Set the foundation. [25:51] Randy has 100s of people focused on data centers. They have analysts and use AI for some things. There are people from the financial institution vertical, construction, operations, cyber, AI, energy, and renewal. They gather together. It's multidisciplinary, under one umbrella. [27:05] Randy says his leadership style is collaborative. He tries to lift the whole team, orchestrating how it comes together. He lets them have the success they deserve. Randy is a strong proponent of mentorship. It's the secret to his success. [27:50] Randy has worked with some people for his entire career, as clients, colleagues, or competitors, and he stays connected with them. Hundreds of people fit that profile. [28:17] Another Quick Break! The Spencer Educational Foundation's Risk Manager on Campus application period will open on April 1st, 2026, and it will close on June 30th. Grant awardees, colleges, and universities are typically notified in September. [28:43] The Course Development Grant application deadline for Interval Number 2 will be on June 15th, 2026. Award notifications will be sent out in late July. [28:57] General Grant applications will open on May 1st, 2026, and the application deadline is July 30th. Internship Grant applications open on August 15th and close on October 15th. [29:10] Links to each of these grants are in this episode's show notes. Visit SpencerEd.org for more information. [29:18] Let's Conclude Our Interview with 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes. [29:39] Randy worked with Pat Ryan to lead the Risk Management and Financial Guarantee Team for Chicago's 2016 Summer Olympic bid. Randy says when Pat retired as CEO of Aon, he took on this project to head Chicago's Olympic bid. He invited Randy to the project. [30:19] In an Olympic Bid, the city has to sign a Host City Agreement that says they will take on the risks of delivering the Games. There's an effective financial guarantee. Globally, it is often done on a country level. That's not how it operates in the U.S. [30:43] Pat and Randy had to figure out how to de-risk the games so that what the city's guarantee would look like was limited because the team had built insurance and risk management. On the construction side, they had contractors take on risks. [31:03] They created a de-risking model. It was the first time anyone had done that for an Olympic Games. Chicago was not successful, but the work the team did on de-risking the Games became the model that a lot of Western cities took on for their Olympic bids. [32:03] Randy says you start with a line-item budget that the bid team puts out. A big part of it is the construction of venues, living spaces, technology, including massive broadcast bandwidth, tens of thousands of volunteers to transport and train, and secure. [32:35] Randy says they took the line-item budget and worked on each item separately, to create certainty and shrink the distance between certain and uncertain, so that when they put the umbrella guarantee on top of it, it touched a lot fewer things and had a lot more certainty. [33:01] The biggest thing the umbrella policy covered is delivering the Games on a certain date. No delays. All the costs are front-end. If, for some reason, the Games don't happen: terrorism, global war, or pandemic, you're stuck with all those front-end costs. It's the worst case. [33:39] The closer you get to the event, the more risk you have. Then you have the three or four weeks when you're delivering the Olympic Games and the Paralympic Games. [33:49] Randy says it was interesting. They did a white paper on it, "How to De-risk Games." It was done to encourage cities not to be afraid to host the Games. [34:19] Randy says, over the years, when cities in North America are bidding for Winter or Summer, they reach out, and Pat and Randy give them the template. San Francisco, LA, Boston, and Calgary all asked for it. [34:51] Most of the people on the Bid Committee were on the City level. It was Mayor Daley, his staff, and 50 aldermen. Randy says, We gave them lots of transparency into what we were doing. [35:16] Randy says they provided 1,200 pages of material, in 3-ring binders, for each of the aldermen. They also put all the text on discs to search electronically. Later, an alderman called Randy, angry because he couldn't listen to the disc in his car. Randy explained it to him. [3:24] Randy thinks a city should be thankful to host the Olympic Games. They make the city sparkle. The city gets a big influx of outside money. Chicago would have gotten a lot of Federal money. The transportation system would have been upgraded. It would make the city better. [36:49] Randy describes how London and Paris were improved by hosting the Olympic Games. If you're thinking of bidding, it's worth it. Randy wishes Chicago's bid had been successful. [37:33] Justin and Randy comment on the Milan Winter Olympics Opening and Closing Ceremonies. The next Winter Olympics will be on the French side of the Alps. [38:01] Justin says that Chicago is known for its colorful history of notorious characters. [38:45] Justin asks Randy about Project Six. Project Six came out of the Olympic Bid. Seeing corruption in the city government, Randy and a few committee members put together Project Six, referring to the six business leaders who partnered with Elliot Ness to go after Al Capone. [39:44] They set up Project Six as a nonprofit whistleblower organization so people could come to report corruption. They got hundreds of whistleblower tips. They published things and gave information on criminal activity to Federal prosecutors. [40:07] Some things were not criminal but unethical. When the Chicago Cubs were playing in the World Series, public officials paid face value for Cubs tickets instead of the market price. Project Six brought it to the ethics committee, and they changed that practice for tickets. [41:31] Randy says they did not make a lot of friends in public office. Project Six is closed. [41:47] Randy talks about angering a bunch of people in public office. They went after Project Six because they weren't getting whistleblower tips on Republicans. There might have been one Republican commissioner in Chicago. [42:20] Randy says some of the senior people they ruffled went after donors. So it was a better idea to shut it down. It ran for three and a half years. [42:41] Randy says the biggest frustration was how slow things move. It takes years for some convictions to go through. You would like justice to happen faster. Randy hopes that when high-profile people go to prison, others pause to consider. [43:59] Randy gives his advice on what separates a good risk manager or problem solver from a great one. He says not to get too focused on what you did yesterday. Every day, step back and ask, Am I still doing the right stuff? Am I focused on the right thing? [44:26] You have a fixed amount of money to spend to solve your risk problems. You're insuring your buildings for fire, but over time, you've engineered them to be fire-resistant. There is less risk. At the same time, you have AI, cyber risk, and new things that come in. [44:48] Is it better to direct money to solve cyber risk and take on more risk for property? Don't get hung up on what you did yesterday. Stepping back and staying on top of what's happening with the business has never been more important. [45:17] Businesses are transforming before our eyes, and AI is leading the transformation. Make sure you're interacting with your business to stay current on what the business is all about. [46:02] Randy says being at Aon a long time has given him a lot of latitude to do all the things he has done. He can look for new things, cut across the towers that exist and think about risk at the broadest level. [46:40] If you move company to company, you'll step into the new role, fix a few things, and move to the next company. You won't have the latitude to experiment with new things or ask what comes next. You're there because you're needed at that time. [47:07] Randy says, That can be comfortable. But don't get too comfortable and make sure you're staying current. [47:17] We really appreciate you joining us here on the show. I want to wish you congratulations again on the Goodel Award. It's a big honor here at RIMS, and you certainly deserve it. [47:27] I look forward to meeting you in Philadelphia, from May 3rd through the 6th at RISKWORLD! Thank you so much for joining us here on RIMScast, Randy! [47:40] Special thanks again to 2025 Goodel Award Winner, Randy Nornes, for joining us here on RIMSCast! A link to his profile in RIMS Risk Management Magazine's Awards Edition 2025 is in this episode's show notes. [47:57] He's one of our men in Chicago. Check out ChicagoRIMS.org. They have a live event coming up called "Nuclear Verdicts: Live Mock Trial for Evaluating Litigation Risk and Strategy"  at the Aon Center (Chicago), on March 11th. You might see Randy there! [48:14] We've got the Chicago RIMS Annual Golf Outing on September 21st, and the 11th Annual Chicagoland Risk Forum on September 24th at the Old Post Office in Chicago. They're one of our most active and vibrant chapters, so check out those events and visit ChicagoRIMS.org. [48:34] Plug Time! You can sponsor a RIMScast episode for this, our weekly show, or a dedicated episode. Links to sponsored episodes are in the show notes. [49:02] RIMScast has a global audience of risk and insurance professionals, legal professionals, students, business leaders, C-Suite executives, and more. Let's collaborate and help you reach them! Contact pd@rims.org for more information. [49:20] Become a RIMS member and get access to the tools, thought leadership, and network you need to succeed. Visit RIMS.org/membership or email membershipdept@RIMS.org for more information. [49:37] Risk Knowledge is the RIMS searchable content library that provides relevant information for today's risk professionals. Materials include RIMS executive reports, survey findings, contributed articles, industry research, benchmarking data, and more. [49:54] For the best reporting on the profession of risk management, read Risk Management Magazine at RMMagazine.com. It is written and published by the best minds in risk management. [50:08] Justin Smulison is the Business Content Manager at RIMS. Please remember to subscribe to RIMScast on your favorite podcasting app. You can email us at Content@RIMS.org. [50:20] Practice good risk management, stay safe, and thank you again for your continuous support!   Links: RIMS Legislative Summit — March 18-19, 2026 on Capitol Hill, Washington, D.C. | Register now! RISKWORLD 2026 Registration — Open for exhibitors, members, and non-members! Reserve your booth at RISKWORLD 2026! Spencer Educational Foundation — Scholarships and Grants RIMS Texas Regional Conference 2026 Education Content Submission — Deadline March 18, 2026! RIMS-CRO Certificate Program In Advanced Enterprise Risk Management | April ‒ June 2026 Cohort | Led by James Lam RIMS Compensation Survey 2025 — Download Today RIMS Risk Management magazine | Contribute | Awards Edition 2025 RIMS Now RIMS-Certified Risk Management Professional (RIMS-CRMP) | Insights Video Series Featuring Joe Milan! The Strategic and Enterprise Risk Center RIMS Diversity Equity Inclusion Council RIMS-CRMP Story, featuring John Button RIMScast Canada — Episodes Now Live RISK PAC | RIMS Advocacy Upcoming RIMS-CRMP Prep Virtual Workshops: RIMS-CRMP Exam PrepMarch 10‒11 | April 21‒22 | June 9‒10 RIMS-CRMP-FED Exam Prep with AFERM | March 17‒18 Full RIMS-CRMP Prep Course Schedule See the full calendar of RIMS Virtual Workshops RIMS Virtual Workshop – Facilitating Risk-Based Decision Making | March 4‒5 | Register Now Risk Appetite Management | March 25‒26 Claims Management | April 7‒8 Emerging Risks | April 15 | Register Now! 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Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur and U.S. Head of Credit Strategy Vishwas Patkar discuss the implications of private credit's exposure to the software industry.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Vishwas Patkar: I'm Vishwas Patkar, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Head of Credit Strategy. Vishy Tirupattur: While potential disruption from AI has been a key driver for markets [in the] last few weeks, the focus of investor agenda has been in the software sector. On today's podcast, we will talk about software in the credit markets and its implications. It's Monday, March 2nd at 10am in New York. Vishwas, let's start by understanding how the exposure in software manifests in the credit markets. How does it compare to software, say, in the equity market? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so the software exposure in credit markets is large, and understandably that's why investors are closely watching what's happening with software in the equity market. But what's interesting and important for investors to note is the exposure in credit is very different from what it is in equities. So, for instance, a good chunk of exposure in the credit market is around private issuers. So, we estimate about 80 percent of companies are private in the whole sample set that we looked at. And that's largely a function of the fact that software is not a big part of the more liquid spaces like Investment Grade and High Yield. But it is heavily represented in the more opaque parts of the market, like leveraged loans, CLOs, and, you know, BDCs. So, our analysis found that about 25 percent of BDC portfolios are in software, closely followed by private credit CLOs. And leveraged loan market was about 16 percent. So, that's an important distinction to keep in mind versus the equity market. The second thing I would flag is – because the software sector grew a lot in the loan market through the LBO wave of 2020 and 2021, it has a weaker credit quality skew to it than the overall market. So about 50 percent of borrowers in the sector are rated B - or lower. So, that's the lowest rungs of the rating spectrum. Many of these software deals were underwritten with higher leverage than the broad market. And as a result of that you also have more front-loaded maturities in the sector, which brings the risks of refinancing, if some of this disruption persists. But Vishy, that's a nice segue to you. Over the past couple of years, you looked at the private credit market in depth and that's where I think the exposure we found is the highest in BDCs, you know, which is the public face of private credit. So, in your assessment, what is the risk of software to private credit, given all of the headlines that are popping up? Vishy Tirupattur: Public face of private credit – Vishwas, that's a great line. BDCs – business development corporations for those who are not familiar – are companies that invest in the debt of small and medium sized companies, sourced through non-bank channels. BDCs fund themselves through equity and debt issuance. So, if you look at the portfolios of BDCs to look at their exposure to software, there's a wide variation across the various BDC portfolios. What makes the assessment of these software risks in BDCs challenging is that many of these companies are private companies without the reporting obligations of public companies. So, no earnings reports, no 10-Ks or cues or broadly publicly available financials look at. So, in effect, these companies need to be re underwritten to evaluate which of these companies would be disrupted from AI; and which companies could actually benefit from AI and see their margins expand. So, in the context of BDCs, liability spreads are something we are watching closely. BDC liability spreads have widened but we think more needs to happen there. The clearing levels need to wait for the full resolution of the companies that benefit and that get hurt by disruption that is still awaited. So, we expect credit spreads of BDCs to remain volatile for some time to come. Vishwas Patkar: Okay. So, seems like this is a significant, or at least a non-trivial risk factor for credit markets, given the growth of the sector, leverage, the skew and quality. But Vishy, do you think this could be systemic for risk markets at large? Vishy Tirupattur: So, I do think that this is a significant risk, but I don't think it's a systemic risk. The amount of leverage in BDC is fairly small. About 2x is the kind of leverage. You compare that to the kind of leverage that existed in the financial system before the financial crisis – that's orders of magnitude smaller risk. And also the linkage to the banking system comes through the back leverage provided to the non-bank lenders. But this leverage is substantially risk remote with very high subordination levels. So, my conclusion here is this is a significant risk but not a systemic risk. So let me turn the same question to you, Vishwas. Taking on a sort of historical perspective as well as a macro perspective, how do you see this risk manifesting in the broader credit space? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah, so I would agree with you Vishy, that we need to see a valuation reset. We think spreads should go wider because of disruption concerns, even if they affect a relatively narrow part of the market. But a lot of that's happening against issuance that's rising. But I would say the risk of systemic concerns really emerging is relatively low. if you look at historical cycles where credit has been the weak link in the economy, those are typically characterized by a lot of corporate re-leveraging. So, think about the late 1990s or from 2004 to 2007 or the early 2000-teens. These are all cycles where corporates were being very aggressive, adding a lot of debt. And you know, when the economy slowed, credit became the source of some default and downgrade concerns. We haven't really seen that type of credit cycle play out at all in the past few years. If you look at corporate debt to GDP, for example, it's gone down each of the last five years. Balance sheet corporate leverage has been flat or actually gone lower in spots. M&A activity, which is usually a good indicator of corporate aggressiveness, still remains below trend. So, I think we have had a fairly restrained credit cycle where in place fundamentals are quite strong. And that's why I think the systemic contagion from any credit spread weakness, I think could be relatively muted. Vishy Tirupattur: So, the key takeaway from us is that software and credit is a significant risk but is not quite systemic risk. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this news-style episode, Simon and Dan break down Citrini Research’s The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis—a “note from the future” dated June 30, 2028 that frames the most bullish AI adoption path as a surprisingly bearish outcome for the real economy. They walk through the core feedback loop: companies deploy AI to boost productivity and margins, layoffs rise (especially in white-collar roles), consumer spending weakens, and the cycle reinforces itself—creating what the piece calls “ghost GDP,” where productivity climbs but wages and demand don’t keep up. From there, the duo digs into the sectors Citrini argues get hit first and hardest: SaaS (seat contraction + customers using AI as renewal leverage), the intermediation layer (agents shopping travel, subscriptions, insurance, delivery, and more), and even payment rails as AI agents chase lower-cost settlement via stablecoins. They also connect the dots to private credit and insurance flywheels—where mark-to-model portfolios can look stable until forced selling and capital needs expose stress—and what rising unemployment could mean for housing in once “prime” white-collar markets. Tickers discussed: V, MA, AXP, DFS, PYPL, AMZN, WMT, EXPE, UBER, DASH, SHOP, GOOGL, PLTR, TRI, OWL, APO, BN, KKR, CRM, ADBE, AIG Citrini research report Subscribe to our Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Our New Youtube Channel! Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

【98有聲書房】開張，訂閱收藏News98精選有聲書：https://apple.co/44KcuRo主持人：阮慕驊 來賓：中央大學台經中心 吳大任教授 主題：2月消費者信心指數微跌 台灣GDP今年7%可期？節目時間：週一至週五 5:00pm-7:00pm本集播出日期：2026.03.02

John Carney clarifies that recent price spikes were driven by volatile service sector margins rather than trade policies, suggesting that underlying inflation remains under control. The conversation transitions into a confident political outlook, noting that a unified Republican leadership and a rebounding GDP create a strong tailwind for the administration. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What happens when AI makes intelligence essentially free — and unlimited energy plus humanoid robots make physical labour free too? The economic models we've built our entire civilisation on stop working. In this episode I sit down with Cern Basher — a CFA charterholder, CIO of Brilliant Advice, and one of the sharpest minds at the intersection of AI, Bitcoin, and macroeconomics. Originally from New Zealand, Cern has built a massive following for his work connecting the dots between exponential technology and the future of money. We go deep on his thesis that AI and Bitcoin are two sides of the same coin — AI collapses the cost of intelligence (deflationary), and Bitcoin provides a monetary system that can't be inflated away. We explore Jason Lowery's Softwar thesis (which the US Department of Defence placed under security review), why AI agents will naturally adopt Bitcoin for autonomous transactions, and Cern's provocative argument that infinite output multiplied by zero price equals zero GDP — making our most fundamental economic metric meaningless. If you've ever wondered what the economy actually looks like when abundance replaces scarcity, this is the conversation. In this episode we discuss: Why AI and Bitcoin are "two sides of the same coin" Jason Lowery's Softwar thesis and why the DoD took notice How AI is already contributing more to US GDP growth than consumer spending Why AI agents need Bitcoin — permissionless, no KYC, no intermediaries Cern's "death of GDP" thesis — infinite supply × zero price = zero GDP The dematerialisation of physical products (cameras, maps, books, money) What this means for New Zealand and small economies How abundance economics breaks traditional supply and demand Links mentioned: Cern Basher on X: https://x.com/CernBasher Brilliant Advice: https://www.brilliantadvice.net Cern's GDP post: https://x.com/CernBasher/status/1913993658572984440 Jason Lowery's Softwar thesis: https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/153030

Gold just broke above $5,100 — and almost no one is talking about it. While politicians argue over tariffs, the real story is accelerating stagflation. GDP growth collapsed from 4.4% to 1.4%. Core PCE inflation is rising again. The Fed is openly debating rate cuts while inflation runs 50% above target.

When you hear "meal deal" you probably think of fast-food chains, like McDonald's. But as daily life grows more unaffordable, a new tier of chain restaurants are adopting similar options to hang onto their cash-strapped regulars. It's why Panera just launched a new $10 value meal, and analysts expect other fast-casual joints to follow suit. Plus: Data center construction was up nearly 30% in 2025 but had a limited impact on GDP; buy now, pay later for rent payment comes at a price; we discuss the week's economic headlines.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

When you hear "meal deal" you probably think of fast-food chains, like McDonald's. But as daily life grows more unaffordable, a new tier of chain restaurants are adopting similar options to hang onto their cash-strapped regulars. It's why Panera just launched a new $10 value meal, and analysts expect other fast-casual joints to follow suit. Plus: Data center construction was up nearly 30% in 2025 but had a limited impact on GDP; buy now, pay later for rent payment comes at a price; we discuss the week's economic headlines.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Trump claims we have the hottest economy in the world and the greatest turnaround in history, but the numbers tell a completely different story—GDP growth actually slowed under his watch, the stock market is the worst performer globally, and he's ignoring the real crisis ahead: a sovereign debt catastrophe that will make 2008 look like a warm-up act.This episode is sponsored by Samsara. - This episode is sponsored by Samsara. Head to https://samsara.com/gold to request a free demo and see how Samsara brings visibility and safety to your operations.This episode is also sponsored by Function. Own your health for $365 a year. That's a dollar a day. Learn more and join using my link. Visit https://www.functionhealth.com/peter and use gift code PETER25 for a $25 credit toward your membership.Peter Schiff delivers a scathing critique of Trump's State of the Union address, systematically debunking what he calls numerous economic lies and misrepresentations. Schiff argues that Trump's claims about achieving the "hottest economy in the world" and a "historic economic turnaround" are completely false, pointing out that GDP growth actually slowed from 2.8% under Biden's final year to 2.4% in Trump's first year. He criticizes Trump's housing policy of keeping prices artificially high while suppressing mortgage rates, calling it the same failed approach that led to the 2008 financial crisis, and disputes claims about record-breaking tax cuts, inflation solutions, and stock market performance.Beyond exposing what he sees as outright fabrications, Schiff condemns Trump's economic policies as fundamentally socialist, including the ban on Wall Street buying single-family homes, government intervention in power plant construction, and various spending programs disguised as tax cuts. He warns that these policies will accelerate inflation and fiscal crisis, predicting that the resulting economic collapse will be blamed on Republicans and capitalism, paving the way for Democratic victories and more socialist policies. Schiff urges listeners to protect themselves by investing in gold, silver, and foreign stocks, noting that gold mining stocks are hitting new highs ahead of the metals themselves, which he sees as a bullish leading indicator.Chapters:00:00 Show Intro Montage00:55 State of the Union Setup03:36 Housing Prices and Rates10:24 Stock Market Bragging15:54 Economy Claims and Inflation31:10 Gas and Economic Bragging32:48 Tariffs Supreme Court and Trade Reality35:56 Taxes Entitlements and Price Claims39:26 Healthcare Drugs and Anti Socialism Rants53:05 Fiscal Cliff and Gold StrategyFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#Finance #Economics #GoldOur Sponsors:* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Tom Bilyeu and co-host DREW dive headfirst into some of the most pressing and controversial news stories shaking the globe. They kick things off by unpacking the arrest of Prince Andrew—highlighting the unprecedented legal scrutiny on the British royal family and its deep connections to the infamous Epstein saga. The conversation peels back the layers of power, secrecy, and the changing nature of accountability in the age of hyper-velocity information, asking whether true justice can ever be achieved when the world's elites are involved. But the episode doesn't stop there. Tom Bilyeu and DREW pivot to the bizarre timing of President Trump's announcement to “give us the aliens,” raising questions about whether disclosures about extraterrestrial life are just next-level distractions from more uncomfortable truths. From Nobel Prize-winning physics experiments that challenge our understanding of reality itself, to politicians and military personnel testifying under oath about UFOs, this discussion is a whirlwind journey through the places where science fiction meets political theater. As always, expect sharp analysis, biting humor, and a fearless willingness to address the issues others avoid. Whether it's the unraveling of global conspiracies, the fate of democracy in an era of fractured narratives, or the economic chess game of international tariffs, this episode promises to make you think deeper and question everything. Buckle up—this is Impact Theory at its thought-provoking best. Huel: High-Protein Starter Kit 20% off for new customers at https://huel.com/impact code impactKetone IQ: Visit https://ketone.com/IMPACT for 30% OFF your subscription orderQuince: Free shipping and 365-day returns at https://quince.com/impactpodShopify: Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial period at https://shopify.com/impactPique: 20% off at https://piquelife.com/impact Cape: 33% off your first 6 months with code IMPACT at https://cape.co/impact Plaud: Get 10% off with code TOM10 at https://plaud.ai/tomDuck.Ai: Protect your privacy at https://duck.ai/impactRaycon: 15% off at https://buyraycon.com/impact What's up, everybody? It's Tom Bilyeu here: If you want my help... STARTING a business: join me here at ZERO TO FOUNDER:  https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder?utm_campaign=Podcast%20Offer&utm_source=podca[%E2%80%A6]d%20end%20of%20show&utm_content=podcast%20ad%20end%20of%20show SCALING a business: see if you qualify here.:  https://tombilyeu.com/call Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here.: https://tombilyeu.com/ ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Prince Andrew arrest, Epstein files, Jeffrey Epstein, misconduct in public office, British royal family, information censorship, aliens, extraterrestrial disclosure, Trump administration, political distraction, royal scandal, government secrets, Virginia Giuffre, sexual abuse allegations, whistleblower testimony, House Oversight Committee, UAP (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), alien technology, Nobel Prize physics, quantum entanglement, Obama alien remarks, Trump tariffs, Supreme Court ruling, International Emergency Economic Power Act (IEPA), tariff lawsuits, government shutdown, GDP numbers, deregulation, energy prices, U.S. manufacturing jobs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices