Podcasts about gdp

Get ready for another no-holds-barred episode of the Walt Blackman Show where we slice through the red tape of government bureaucracy. We're talking about the very real possibility of a government shutdown, and what that actually means for you, for me and for everyday Americans. Did you know that without Congress passing 12 appropriation bills federal agencies could be left high and dry due to the Anti-Deficiency Act? Essential services like air traffic control and law enforcement may be left unpaid, sending ripples of hardship through the lives of federal employees and their families. We're here to shed light on the facts, not just the political drama.You'll want to lean in as we dive into the 51-page contingency plan from the Office of Management and Budget. We'll also uncover just how agencies like the CDC might be impacted. The shutdown isn't just a political chess game, it's an event that can strain those that serve our country. It affects everything from veteran benefit pay to military retirement pay. And guess what? The politicians are still getting paid. It's time we took a hard look at what's really going on.Remember the partial government shutdown of 2018 and 2019? We'll revisit it and unpack the impact it had on our GDP. We'll talk about what happens when the budget doesn't get passed and how the government resorts to a continuing resolution. Border funding is a contentious issue, and we'll reveal where the Republican Party stands on it. For all the veterans and military retirees out there, we have advice and insights for you during these uncertain times. So, gear up, get ready, and let's cut through the noise together. This is Walt Blackman, and you're listening to the Walt Blackman Show.Support the show

The economy is great! Inflation is dead! We're on our way to a soft landing! We keep hearing messages like this over and over again from Fed officials, the Biden administration, academics, and financial news pundits. But doesn't the spin seem a little detached from reality? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey exposes the political class's gaslighting operation. He also talks about the big selloff in gold this week. You can visit the show notes here: https://bit.ly/3RDhJ1C Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news. TOPICS DISCUSSED - What is gaslighting? - Gold sells off - Are we at the beginning of a generational bear market in bonds? - Oil keeps spiking - GDP revisions - Consumers aren't confident - The disconnect between government spin and consumer perception - We're being gaslit

All eyes are on the Biden administration as fears of a U.S. government shutdown loom! Investors panic as effects on GDP, the stock market, tourism, and the future of the United States are highly anticipated! Join Cryptoman Ran to find out how you can prepare yourself and your crypto portfolio for what is about to unfold! ⚠️

ดอกเบี้ยไทยสูงสุดในรอบ 10 ปี หลัง กนง. มีมติเอกฉันท์ขึ้นดอกเบี้ยนโยบาย 0.25% เป็น 2.50% ต่อปี พร้อมหั่นคาดการณ์ GDP ปีนี้เหลือ 2.8% รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไร ประเมินทิศทางดอกเบี้ยไทยจบรอบแล้วจริงหรือไม่ ทิศทางฟันด์โฟลวมีโอกาสจะไหลออกต่อเนื่องหรือมีโอกาสพลิกกลับมาซื้อหรือไม่ พูดคุยกับ จิติพล พฤกษาเมธานันท์ หัวหน้านักกลยุทธ์การลงทุน ฝ่ายวิเคราะห์เศรษฐกิจและการลงทุน สายงานวิจัย บล.ซีจีเอส-ซีไอเอ็มบี (ประเทศไทย)

Discover how AI is set to revolutionize the B2B services economy and the implications for GDP. Plus, unravel the paradox of the cyber job market, explore the urgent need for a content source authentication system, and delve into the controversial practice of CVE farming

(9/28/23) The second Republican debate, Halloween decorations, and a scary market: Understanding what drives the economy. Reviewing oil price history & how commodity prices are driven; markets cycle over time. the VIX & Market volatility: weaker prices = higher volatility. Looking for a reversal in the index as quarter-end rebalancing occurs. GDP Revision: How strong is the economy, really? GDP vs GDI: divergence is a prelude to recession. GDP revisions are rear-view data: Is the Fed in a trap? 7% interest rates are ludicrous; putting "crisis" into perspective. Why things WERE different in 1995: The Yield Curve was not inverted, and did not invert until 1998. Market commentary: Tough week for markets with few drivers and "programmic" selling. Markets are in position to boom ahead of weaker performance next year. Price drives performance and narrative; what's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Group think vs group stink. SEG-1: What's Driving the Markets Now SEG-2: Revising GDP: Is the Fed in a Trap? SEG-3: Why Things WERE Different in 1995 SEG-4: Price Drives the Narrative: What's tomorrow's narrative going to be? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyWalCLIvgw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "What Quarter-end May Mean for Investors" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ej2gT3uvR8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Are We Heading for 7% Interest?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ll2W1gh-70g&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=8s -------- Articles Mentioned in this Show: "A Crisis Is Coming: Who Is Swimming Naked?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-crisis-is-coming-who-is-swimming-naked/ "That 70s Show" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/that-70s-show/ "Economic Data Points Diverge" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/economic-data-points-diverge/ "Compound Market Returns Are A Myth?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/compound-market-returns-are-a-myth/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #GDP #GDI #VIX #MarketVolatility #VolatilityIndex #EconomicSlowdown #InterestRates #JamieDimon #YearEndFinancialPlanning #Markets #Money #Investing

With volatility in Asia and emerging markets causing both upswings and downswings, certain markets will be critical as uncertainty continues.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia and Emerging Market Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be discussing why we turned more cautious on our coverage recently. It's Thursday, September the 28th at 9 a.m. in Singapore. We turned more cautious on our coverage in early August, downgrading Taiwan and China to equal weight and Australia to underweight, whilst raising India, which we view as defensive, to a major overweight. For India, multi-polar world trends are supporting a surge in inward foreign direct investment in manufacturing, and portfolio flows into both bonds and equities. The country's reforms and macro stability agenda, particularly in fiscal policy, is underpinning a strong capital expenditure and profits outlook. We also maintain Japan equities, currency hedged, as our top pick in global equity markets. Japan has strong nominal GDP growth, positive earnings per share revisions and valuations which remain reasonable in our view, at a little over 14x forward price to earnings. However, the continued debate on China's growth slowdown and now a sudden further rise in US real yields are, in our view, likely to pressure markets lower generally, in what is seasonally a difficult period for our asset class. Volatility is now and generally has been a feature of Asia and emerging equity markets. Hence the intense interest in market timing and hedging strategies in an asset class which has, with the recent exception of Japan, failed to deliver attractive, sustained compound returns for the US-dollar-based investor. Indeed, we've made the point before that on a risk adjusted basis, Asia and emerging equity markets are what is known as Sharpe ratio inefficient in a multi asset sense, that is returns have not compensated for volatility compared to other benchmarks.All of our coverage markets have higher volatility than the S&P 500, and in many cases significantly so. In particular, China A shares, the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index and until recently, the India benchmark Sensex. In terms of why this is the case it probably has to do with the following characteristics. Firstly, more volatility in earnings cycles. Secondly, less developed domestic institutional investor bases than in many developed markets. And thirdly, greater reliance on foreign flows, which are inherently less sticky than domestic flows. However, this is changing now for the India market. Combining data allows us to develop a simple scoring framework to assess complacency versus fear in relation to drawdown risk. It suggests a somewhat complacent mode in general, but particularly for China A, Australian equities, that's the ASX 200, and the overall MSCI EM benchmark, much less so for Topix, Nikkei and the Hang Seng Index. And this reinforces our view that Japan equities are a key holding to maintain currently. Thanks for listening. If you enjoyed the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Some dramatic economic data came out today and Wall Street took note. In addition the bond yield and oil prices took a dive and that too advanced the equities.  It's the business news headlines for Thursday the 28th day of September. Thanks for being with us.  And,  if you want to reach us on social media and if you're on Threads you can find  us @Insight_On_Business. And you can hook up with us all day on Twitter or "X" @IOB_NewsHour and on Instagram.  Here's what we've got for you today: The government shutdown? Very possible; The latest GDP numbers are in and we'll share; Gov. Newsom signed a bill into law. Think fast food workers; United Airlines and wheelchairs made the news; So, you are not saving for a new home but something quite different; The Wall Street Report think bonds and oil; The biggest pay gap in the U.S. is located...where? Thanks for listening! The award winning Insight on Business the News Hour with Michael Libbie is the only weekday business news podcast in the Midwest. The national, regional and some local business news along with long-form business interviews can be heard Monday - Friday. You can subscribe on  PlayerFM, Podbean, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or TuneIn Radio. And you can catch The Business News Hour Week in Review each Sunday Noon on News/Talk 1540 KXEL. The Business News Hour is a production of Insight Advertising, Marketing & Communications. You can follow us on Twitter @IoB_NewsHour...and on Threads @Insight_On_Business.

Michael Normyle – Nasdaq's US Economist joins IBKR's Jeff Praissman to discuss GDP and GDI and how they are used to gauge the economy. Email:  Michael.Normyle@nasdaq.com Web:   www.nasdaq.com Note: Any performance figures mentioned in this podcast are as of the date of recording (September 18, 2023).

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), founded to help build up market economies in the wake of the fall of the Soviet Union, has issued a new growth forecast for the region. It predicts that Ukraine will see its GDP increase by 3 percent in 2024. Speaking to FRANCE 24, the EBRD's Chief Economist Beata Javorcik explained the reasons for this as well as how increased Russian trade and remittances boosted the economies of Central Asia, the Caucasus and Turkey.

As a child, Stuart Green was obsessed with what went on under the water. The UK entrepreneur became educated in fisheries, including by immersing himself in various coastal communities. He came to realize that the whole system wasn't working very well, so he's spent the past 25 years seeking solutions to the problem. In this episode, Stuart explains the fishing problems the world has and the entrepreneur ideas and mindset he's using to find solutions.Here's some of what you'll learn in this episode:The business complexities that Stuart's company simplifies for clients.How the fishing business is about balancing social progress with economics.The importance of understanding what drives your audience and your stakeholders.How Stuart came to understand what the business is really about.Show Notes:Earth isn't really a planet; it's a planet ocean.Most people underestimate the GDP of the world's oceans.The GDP of oceans is about $3.1 trillion per annum, which is about 3% of the world's GDP.Almost half the people on the planet depend on the oceans for their livelihood.15% of global protein comes from fish.Humans need to be incentivized to stop taking the oceans for granted.Several types of small-scale fishers are always overlooked and rarely given voice.If you have a grand vision but no metrics, you won't know where you're going.Initiatives created without consulting the community won't fit.The real art in a solution is making it appropriate to local needs.You can take problems and turn them into solutions.Resources:Your Life As A Strategy Circle by Dan SullivanDeep D.O.S. Innovation by Dan Sullivan

Electric two and three-wheelers are eating into oil demand more than EVs right now. The U.K. is rolling back zero emission goals, saying it will cost you money. Bringing Tesla-like route navigation to an non-Telsa EV. Heat pump fever gets even hotter in the United States! James re-enacts a funny dream he has about his finacially-better off co-host. Brian talks about a new series on Nissan's Carlos Ghosn. James gets battery powered socks for his birthday and a 12 volt electric blanket for his EV. Tesla is raising charging prices. Rishi Sunak disappoints with the U.K. backing off on climate goals. A new report says energy costs will go from 4% of GDP to just 2.5% by 2050 in North America. A US heat pump conortium between many US states. How Taiwan become the E-scooter leader LINK to the YouTube Brian discusses: Taiwan e-scooters The Lightning Round with the rest of this week's clean tech and transportion news! The Clean Energy Show is released every week so be sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast app to get new episodes delivered to you free! Support the Show Make a small donation to our podcast today! PayPal Donate!https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=VMDCRPHLNR8YE E-transfer: cleanenergyshow@gmail.com Thanks for listening to our show! Consider rating The Clean Energy Show on iTunes, Spotify or wherever you listen to our show. Our Store Visit our T-Shirt and Merch Shop! https://my-store-dde61d.creator-spring.com Contact Us! Email us at cleanenergyshow@gmail.com Follow us on TikTok! @cleanenergypod  Check out our YouTube Channel! @CleanEnergyShow Follow us on Twitter or Threads @CleanEnergyPod James Whittingham https://twitter.com/jewhittingham Brian Stockton: https://twitter.com/brianstockton Leave us an online voicemail at http://speakpipe.com/cleanenergyshow Copyright 2023 with some rights reserved. You may share and reproduce portions of our show with attribution. All music is copyright with all rights reserved.  

If government funding expires next week, the shutdown combined with other economic issues could make for a weak fourth quarter. Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research Michael Zezas and U.S. Public Policy Analyst Ariana Salvatore discuss.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income and Thematic Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore from our U.S. Public Policy Research Team. Michael Zezas: Along with our colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, we'll be talking about the market and economic impacts of a potential government shutdown later this week. It's Wednesday, September 27th at 10 a.m. in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, let's get right into it. Congress is up against a tight deadline with government funding set to expire on the first day of the next fiscal year, which is October 1st. What's the state of play? Ariana Salvatore: So the first thing I'll say is that the situation is very fluid at the moment with lots of uncertainty between now and Sunday. Last night, the Senate voted to advance a bipartisan clean C.R. or continuing resolution, which could eventually serve as the legislative vehicle to avoid a lapse in appropriations. Clean, in this sense, means that the bill includes little to no funding for Ukraine aid or disaster relief, two items that Republicans had previously taken opposition to. Right now, the ball's in Speaker McCarthy's court. He can choose one of three options, first, to bring the Senate C.R. to the floor and rely on moderates, and perhaps even some Democrats, to cross the aisle and pass the bill. Second, he can ignore it and try to continue with the House-led funding process. Or third, he can take the C.R. out on some Republican policy items like border funding, for example, and send it back to the Senate where it's almost certainly dead on arrival. Options two and three, because of that, increase the likelihood of a shutdown. But option number one really doesn't solve the problem either, as it would just punt the issue until later in the Fall, and in our view, increase the chances of McCarthy facing a motion to vacate the chair or a motion to oust him as speaker. So all of this is to say that a shutdown seems pretty likely at the time we're recording this. The question is, of course, how long it could last. Michael, how are you thinking about the possible duration of a shutdown, assuming we do, in fact, get to Sunday without significant progress being made here? Michael Zezas: So there's a few scenarios to consider here. One is a pretty brief shutdown, one that lasts for less than a week and ultimately ends with a continuing resolution. Perhaps Speaker McCarthy agrees to put the Senate pass continuing resolution on the floor for a vote. Another scenario is one that lasts for a few weeks. And here you might have a situation where House Republicans continue to oppose any continuing resolution. And after enduring a shutdown for enough time, federal employees' paychecks begin to lapse, economic pressure begins to build and all of a sudden there's just more acceptance around the idea of a continuing resolution to allow more time for negotiation. And then another scenario would be something that lasts quite a bit longer, several weeks. And here, you clearly have a breakdown in negotiation positions, members of the Republican caucus perhaps refusing to vote for any type of continuing resolution, there being major roadblocks on the issues you spoke about already, Ariana. And the potential way to fix this would have to be through something like a discharge petition where members of the House of Representatives work around Speaker McCarthy using procedural rules. But that's something that takes a long time to play out and could take several weeks to play out. So given all this uncertainty, sometimes it helps to look back at history as a guide. Ariana, what can we learn from similarities or differences between this and prior shutdown episodes? Ariana Salvatore: Well, for starters, while shutdowns are not necessarily routine, they're also not without precedent. There have been about 20 in total in U.S. history, but more recent ones have lasted longer. For example, the most recent in 2019 under President Trump, was also the longest clocking in at just over a month. However, that case was also unique to what we're seeing today because it was a partial shutdown, meaning that there were some agencies that had already received full-year funding. We've actually never had a full shutdown last more than about a week like we're seeing right now. This time around, because no agencies have received funding, we think there could be a broader based impact relative to the last shutdown that we saw. Michael, given that your focus is across all of fixed income, how are you thinking about the impact of a shutdown across our strategists market views? Michael Zezas: Yeah, well, our economists have flagged that a shutdown could shave about 0.05 percentage points off of fourth quarter growth every single week. That's not a substantial enough number on its own to necessarily impact markets, but it's coming at a time when there's other pieces of data coming in around the economy and other events in the economy that our economists have flagged that are pretty meaningful. The UAW strike, if it lasts for a long time and expands big enough, could have a substantial impact on GDP. There's the beginning of repayment of student loans that could crimp consumer behavior. And so, if you combine all those effects together, then it could make for a fourth quarter where the economic data is looking quite a bit weaker and inflation pressure is looking like it's cooling meaningfully. Those are the types of things that our strategists think should limit increases in bond yields from here. And that in turn means that total returns for bonds, both Treasury bonds and corporate bonds, look pretty attractive to us and it's one of the reasons that we continue to favor bonds over equities. Michael Zezas: So obviously, we'll continue to track this closely as the debate evolves. And Arianna, thanks for taking the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Michael. Michael Zezas: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague, or leave us a review on Apple Podcasts. It helps more people find the show.

Democracy in Question? is brought to you by:• Central European University: CEU• The Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: AHCD• The Podcast Company: scopeaudio Follow us on social media!• Central European University: @CEU• Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: @AHDCentre Subscribe to the show. If you enjoyed what you listened to, you can support us by leaving a review and sharing our podcast in your networks!  GlossaryBelt and Road Initiative (BRI)(04:10 or p.1 in the transcript)China's Belt and Road Initiative is a strategy initiated by the People's Republic of China that seeks to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade and stimulating economic growth. The name was coined in 2013 by China's President Xi Jinping, who drew inspiration from the concept of the Silk Road established during the Han Dynasty 2,000 years ago – an ancient network of trade routes that connected China to the Mediterranean via Eurasia for centuries. The BRI has also been referred to in the past as 'One Belt One Road'. The BRI comprises a Silk Road Economic Belt – a trans-continental passage that links China with southeast Asia, south Asia, Central Asia, Russia and Europe by land – and a 21st century Maritime Silk Road, a sea route connecting China's coastal regions with south east and south Asia, the South Pacific, the Middle East and Eastern Africa, all the way to Europe. The initiative defines five major priorities: policy coordination; infrastructure connectivity; unimpeded trade; financial integration; and connecting people. The BRI has been associated with a very large programme of investments in infrastructure development for ports, roads, railways and airports, as well as power plants and telecommunications networks. Since 2019, Chinese state-led BRI lending volumes have been in decline. The BRI now places increasing emphasis on “high quality investment”, including through greater use of project finance, risk mitigation tools, and green finance. The BRI is an increasingly important umbrella mechanism for China's bilateral trade with BRI partners: as of March 2020, the number of countries that have joined the Belt and Road Initiative by signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China is 138. source BRICS(04:41 or p.2 in the transcript)"BRICS" is the acronym denoting the emerging national economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The term was originally coined in 2001 as "BRIC" by the Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neill in his report, Building Better Global Economic BRICs (Global Economics Paper No: 66). At that time, the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China experienced significant growth, raising concerns regarding their impact on the global economy. Foreign ministers of these countries began meeting informally in 2006, which led to more formal annual summits beginning in 2009. Generally speaking, these meetings are held to improve economic conditions within BRICS countries and give their leaders the opportunity to work in collaboration regarding these efforts. In December of 2010, South Africa joined the informal group and changed the acronym to BRICS. Together these emerging markets represent 42% of the world population and account for over 31% of the world's GDP according to the World Factbook. According to the 2023 summit chair South Africa, over 40 nations were interested in joining the economic forum for the benefits membership would provide including development finance and increase in trade and investment. At the conclusion of the summit, it was announced that Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will become new members of BRICS starting in 2024. source Global Gateway (25:52 or p.7 in the transcript)Global Gateway is a new European strategy to boost smart, clean and secure links in digital, energy and transport sectors and to strengthen health, education and research systems across the world. The European Commission and the EU High Representative launched it in 2021. Global Gateway aims to mobilise up to €300 billion in investments through a Team Europe approach, bringing together the EU, its Member States and their financial and development institutions. It seeks a transformational impact in the digital, climate and energy, transport, health, and education and research sectors. The focus is on smart investments in quality infrastructure, respecting the highest social and environmental standards, in line with the EU's interests and values: rule of law, human rights and international norms and standards. 6 core principles are at the heart of Global Gateway, guiding the investments: democratic values and high standards; good governance and transparency; equal partnerships; green and clean; security focused; catalysing the private sector. Global Gateway is the EU's contribution to narrowing the global investment gap worldwide. It is in line with the commitment of the G7 leaders from June 2021 to launch a values-driven, high-standard and transparent infrastructure partnership to meet global infrastructure development needs. Global Gateway is also fully aligned with the UN's Agenda 2030 and its Sustainable Development Goals, as well as the Paris Agreement on climate change. source  

When it comes to economics, there are a bunch of different schools to choose from, but pretty much all of them are focused on boosting growth. Except, that is, for the degrowth movement, which aims to refocus economics away from GDP. As more and more complaints about "late-stage capitalism" seem to be piling up, along with worries about the impact of rampant consumerism on the environment, is this the degrowth movement's time to shine? We speak with Noel King, the co-host of Vox's Today Explained podcast, about her new mini-series exploring discontent with the capitalist model. She explains the intellectual origins of the degrowth movement, why it's getting more attention now, and just what an economy that no longer prioritizes "growth at any cost" might look like.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Corporate credit is likely to continue outperforming, even if downward revisions to GDP, sticky inflation data and a potential government shutdown could mean a less restrictive approach from the Fed.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Corporate Credit Research for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Tuesday, September 26th at 2 p.m. in London. September has seen widespread market weakness, with both stocks and bonds lower. Several of the big questions behind this move, however, could become much clearer by the end of this week. One area of market concern remains central banks and the idea that they may continue to raise interest rates to tamp down on inflation. While the Federal Reserve decided not to raise rates at its meeting last week, the first time it's done so since 2022, investors nevertheless left that meeting worried the Fed may have more work to do. We hold a different view and think that the Fed will not raise interest rates further. But we'll get an important data point to this view on Friday, with the release of PCE, or Personal Consumption Expenditure inflation. This is the inflation gauge that the Fed cares about most, and on Morgan Stanley's forecast, it will fall to just 2.3%, on a three month annualized basis. That's a large, encouraging step down that would show the Fed that inflation is headed in the right direction. Another area of market concern, somewhat paradoxically, is that the U.S. economy has been quite strong, which in theory would encourage further rate hikes from the Fed. Not only has the US economy shown good GDP numbers so far this year, but unemployment remains near a 50 year low. Fed Chair Powell repeatedly referred to the strength of the economic data in last week's press conference, and some leading economic indicators of industrial activity have actually started to look marginally better. But two other events this week might change that perception. Thursday will see regular revisions to measurements of U.S. economic growth, and Morgan Stanley's economists think U.S. GDP is more likely to be revised downwards, perhaps significantly. A few days later, the US government faces a shutdown as key appropriations bills have failed to clear the U.S. House of Representatives. That shutdown will act as a drag on the economy, potentially to the tune of about 0.2% of GDP per week. Both nominal and real yields have risen as the market remains concerned that the Fed will keep policy restrictive for a longer period of time, given still elevated inflation and robust U.S. economic growth. But it's possible, the GDP revisions, inflation data and a government shutdown all this week could change that perception. For credit, it's worth noting that corporate credit has been a relative outperformer during this rough September. As we discussed on this program last week, higher yields are also meaning fewer bonds are being issued for investors to buy as companies balk at the higher yields they're now being charged to borrow. And in a world where government bonds and equities all yield less than cash does, a so-called negative carry asset, credit again has a marginal advantage. It's a tough backdrop, but we think the credit will continue to be a relative outperformer. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Homeowners are set for an even tighter squeeze as some banks hike up mortgage and deposit rates. Kiwibank has raised standard rates to 8.15 per cent for one-year mortgages and 7.99 percent for two-year mortgages. Westpac bank has lifted its nine-month deposit rate to 6 per cent. This follows strong GDP figures last week, which sparked warnings that interest rates would rise. LoanMarket mortgage broker Bruce Patten spoke to Corin Dann.

Sean Follin is the Founder and Principal Consultant of Encounter Strategies, based in Fort Collins, Colorado but serving clients nationally, and occasionally internationally.  He's a great example of Fort Collins as a choice city - if you can choose to live anywhere, where do you choose?  (It turns out - in my neighborhood!)  Sean is a remarkably experienced strategic planner for his age, and worked his way up through two consulting organizations in Washington DC before making his way to Colorado.  Sean's mentor in the craft is Chris McGoff, Founder of The Clearing, Inc. and author of the book “The Primes - How Any Group Can Solve Any Problem”.  Sean's practice is built on the foundations outlined in The Primes, and enhanced by their upfront data collection with clients, mostly professional services businesses.  We delve into the fundamentals of strategic planning in this episode, which overlaps significantly with conflict resolution, and I explore with Sean his work with a non-profit based in Haiti which has assembled the most important and influential business leaders of the nation.  Representing over 60% of the GDP, the hope for this group is to forge a new vision for Haiti, and lead the way to renewal of law and order and functional governance.  Sean and I were only recently introduced, but we've enjoyed every minute, and I'm excited to see where his significant skills might impact our LoCommunity in the months and years ahead.  We went almost 3 hours in this episode, but there's loads of great business insight, and many great stories.  And, we put a nice dent in a fresh bottle of tequila, so the conversation flows freely and sometimes gets silly, so please tune in and enjoy my conversation with Sean Follin.  Episode Sponsor: InMotion, providing next-day delivery for local businesses. Contact InMotion at inmotionnoco@gmail.com

(9/25/23) How Taylor Swift and Beyonce moved the GDP needle; wrapping up September and the next earnings season preview; can corporate profit margins be maintained? Will the Fed continue to be wrong? The Risk of testing the 200-DMA: there's always a downside. Setting up for October: MACD to turn positive. 25-yrs ago, the demise of Longterm Capital Management: The beginning of "Too Big to Fail." Every time the Fed raises rates, something breaks. What's wrong with bailouts? Companies aren't allowed to fail. Good bankruptcy vs bad: Restructuring vs liquidation, and the financial system becomes weaker as a result. Financial Failures & Forest Fires: the necessity of culling the herd. The realities of Social Security: Bankrupt by 2031? Debt Ceiling & Gov't. shutdown as they kick the can down the road. Again,. Invest in things you can control. The next big thing to grapple: The end of the Government fiscal year, and the associated threats of government shutdown: The problem with Continuing Resolutions: there's no control on federal spending. It's a blank check + 8%. The ugly truth behind "strong" employment numbers: most new jobs are in the government sector. SEG-1: Will the Fed Be Wronger for Longer? SEG-2: The Beginning of Too Big to Fail SEG-3: Financial Failures & Forest Fires SEG-4: The Next Big Thing: End of Gov't. Fiscal Year Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lvIqqmYun8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Hold the Line?" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7BcDDgztq0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What to Do When Trump Tax Cuts Expire" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fu2u6TwToM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #ProfitMargins #TooBigToFail #GovernmentShutdown #DebtCeiling #ContinuingResolution #TaylorSwift #Beyonce #Markets #Money #Investing

------------------------------- 強化英語課程資訊 ------------------------------- 「社會人核心英語」有聲書課程連結：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/554esm ------------------------------- 15Mins.Today 相關連結 ------------------------------- 歡迎針對這一集留言你的想法： 留言連結 官方網站：www.15mins.today 加入Clubhouse直播室：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/46hm8k 訂閱YouTube頻道：https://15minsengcafe.pse.is/3rhuuy 主題投稿/意見回覆 : ask15mins@gmail.com 商業合作/贊助來信：15minstoday@gmail.com ------------------------------- 以下有參考文字稿～ 各播放器有不同字數限制，完整文稿可到官網搜尋 ------------------------------- 國際時事跟讀 Ep.K648: Taylor Swift's Impact on the Economy: Exploring Swiftonomics Taylor Swift, the 33-year-old American superstar, is not just dominating the music industry but also making shrewd business decisions that have a far-reaching impact on the U.S. economy. Affectionately dubbed "Swiftonomics" or "Taylornomics," Swift's prowess extends beyond her musical talents, as she leverages her influence to boost the economy and reshape labor compensation dynamics. 33歲的美國巨星泰勒絲，不僅在音樂行業中占據主導地位，還在商業決策方面展現了深遠的影響，對美國經濟產生了重大影響。這位被人們親切地稱為「斯威夫經濟學」或「泰勒經濟學」的天才不僅在音樂才華上出類拔萃，還藉著自己的影響力來促進經濟增長，並重塑勞動補償機制。 Swift's latest tour strategically targets the spending power of women who have seen increased wages post-COVID-19 and are eager to invest in experiences like live concerts. As the second-richest self-made woman in the U.S. music industry according to Forbes, Swift's global tour is set to include over 140 concerts across five continents throughout 2023 and 2024. 泰勒絲的最新巡演有意地瞄準了在後疫情時代工資增加的女性，這些女性渴望在現場音樂會等場合奢侈消費。根據《富比士》的排名，這位白手起家的女性在美國音樂行業中名列第二富有，其全球巡演計劃將於2023年和2024年在五大洲進行超過140場音樂會。 Alicia Modestino, an associate professor of public policy and economics at Northeastern University, highlights the significant impact of Swift's tour. With skyrocketing ticket prices, record-breaking attendance, and impressive revenues, Swift's tour is leaving an indelible mark on the music industry. 東北大學公共政策與經濟學副教授艾莉西亞·莫迪斯蒂諾強調了泰勒絲巡演的重大影響。通過不斷攀升的門票價格、打破記錄的入場人數和驚人的收入，泰勒絲的巡演對音樂產業留下了不可磨滅的印記。 Each show of her Eras tour has grossed around $13 million, totaling more than $300 million after the initial 22 concerts. Swift's ability to evoke powerful emotions through her music, according to David Herlihy, a professor at Northeastern specializing in the music industry, justifies fans' willingness to pay premium prices for an unforgettable experience. 在她的「時代巡迴演唱會」中，每場演出的總票房約為1300萬美元，在前22場演出後便超過了3億美元。根據東北大學另一位教授大衛·赫利希的說法，泰勒絲通過音樂引起觀眾強烈情感，這正是粉絲願意為難忘的體驗支付高價的原因。 Beyond ticket sales, Swift's tour revenue is supplemented by sponsorships and merchandise sales. Devoted fans seek memorabilia to commemorate their Eras experience, further contributing to Swift's substantial earnings. However, Herlihy acknowledges that costs such as staging, crew compensation, and profit sharing with songwriters do impact Swift's overall earnings. 除了門票銷售外，泰勒絲的巡演收入還來自贊助和週邊商品銷售。忠實的粉絲購買紀念品來紀念他們的「時代」體驗，進一步為泰勒絲的收入做出貢獻。然而，赫利希認為，舞台設計、工作人員薪資以及與詞曲作家的利潤分享等成本確實會影響泰勒絲的整體收入。 Swift's influence extends beyond personal profit, as her presence drives economic activity in cities hosting her concerts. Visitor spending on accommodations, dining, transportation, and various local businesses significantly bolsters the local economies. Notably, a single Swift performance in Colorado was projected to inject $140 million into the state's GDP, while her tour stimulated travel and tourism in regions across the nation. 泰勒絲的影響力不僅僅體現在個人利潤方面，她的存在還推動了舉辦音樂會城市的經濟活動。遊客在住宿、餐飲、交通和各種本地企業上的支出顯著地促進了當地經濟。值得注意的是，泰勒絲在科羅拉多的一場演出被預測將為該州的GDP注入1.4億美元，而她的巡演則在全國各地刺激了旅遊業。 In a surprising move, Swift distributed $55 million in bonuses to her Eras tour crew, showcasing her commitment to equitable compensation and fostering a positive work environment. This gesture aligns with broader trends of employers sharing profits with their workers, especially in a post-COVID era of increased profits and tighter labor markets. 令人驚訝的是，泰勒絲向她的「時代」巡演團隊分發了5500萬美元的獎金，展示了她對公平報酬和積極工作環境的承諾。這種舉動與雇主與員工分享利潤的整體趨勢相符，特別是在利潤增加和勞動市場變得更加緊張的後疫情時代。 As Swift's tour continues to captivate audiences globally, her strategic business decisions underscore her commitment to both artistic expression and economic impact. While her profound generosity sets a precedent, it remains to be seen if others in the entertainment industry will follow suit. Swift's unique ability to combine emotion and capitalism places her at the forefront of a new era of celebrity entrepreneurship, leaving an enduring mark on the economy and labor landscape. 隨著泰勒絲的巡演在全球繼續吸引觀眾，她的戰略性商業決策凸顯出她對藝術表達和經濟影響的承諾。儘管她的慷慨行為樹立了榜樣，但娛樂業中的其他人是否會效仿仍然有待觀察。泰勒絲獨特的能力將情感和資本主義相結合，使她站在名人創業的新時代前沿，對經濟和勞動格局留下了不朽的印記。 Reference article: https://news.northeastern.edu/2023/08/11/taylor-swift-economy-impact/

Recent indicators suggest that the Nasdaq might be poised for a rebound. Despite being considerably oversold, its current pivot bottom on the RSI chart and a record-low 12% buy signals hint at a bullish trend. As the week unfolds, key economic data points will be released, including consumer spending figures, GDP growth, jobless claim reports, and quarterly results for leading brands like NIKE, Costco, and Royal Caribbean Cruise Line. Jim, who accurately predicted downturns for three consecutive weeks, now anticipates a 'green' week for the markets. However, he cautions investors: the current market levels are sensitive, and any adverse news could amplify losses. Stay updated on market trends, insights, and more in this week's episode of "Trading Tips With Jim". Websites mentioned in today's podcast: https://stockinvest.us https://getagraph.com

(9/25/23) How Taylor Swift and Beyonce moved the GDP needle; wrapping up September and the next earnings season preview; can corporate profit margins be maintained? Will the Fed continue to be wrong? The Risk of testing the 200-DMA: there's always a downside. Setting up for October: MACD to turn positive. 25-yrs ago, the demise of Longterm Capital Management: The beginning of "Too Big to Fail." Every time the Fed raises rates, something breaks. What's wrong with bailouts? Companies aren't allowed to fail. Good bankruptcy vs bad: Restructuring vs liquidation, and the financial system becomes weaker as a result. Financial Failures & Forest Fires: the necessity of culling the herd. The realities of Social Security: Bankrupt by 2031? Debt Ceiling & Gov't. shutdown as they kick the can down the road. Again,. Invest in things you can control. The next big thing to grapple: The end of the Government fiscal year, and the associated threats of government shutdown: The problem with Continuing Resolutions: there's no control on federal spending. It's a blank check + 8%. The ugly truth behind "strong" employment numbers: most new jobs are in the government sector. SEG-1: Will the Fed Be Wronger for Longer? SEG-2: The Beginning of Too Big to Fail SEG-3: Financial Failures & Forest Fires SEG-4: The Next Big Thing: End of Gov't. Fiscal Year Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lvIqqmYun8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=3s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Can Markets Hold the Line?" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7BcDDgztq0&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "What to Do When Trump Tax Cuts Expire" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Fu2u6TwToM&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2657s -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #ProfitMargins #TooBigToFail #GovernmentShutdown #DebtCeiling #ContinuingResolution #TaylorSwift #Beyonce #Markets #Money #Investing

Tune in for this week's trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen's paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.-----EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Alan on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?04:55 - Industry performance update08:16 - Living with high public debt20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?40:36 - Where returns may go from here?48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes01:00:29 - Thanks for listening Copyright © 2023 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things

欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度雪球国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好我是主播匪石，今天分享的内容叫“消失”的衰退 - 本轮加息特殊之处，来自青木长青。美国二季度经济数据出炉后，此前的衰退预期不断被打破，这导致加息周期一再被拉长。美联储本轮如此快速且激烈的加息进程中，为何美国经济得以维持增长？高利率看似没能发挥对于经济的降温作用，历史经验是否已经失效？财政持续扩张疫情期间（2020-2021），美国政府累计推出6万亿美元财政刺激，其中直接面向家庭发放了三轮现金补贴，由此形成了总量约2.4万亿美元的超额储蓄。大规模发钱支撑美国消费在2021年提前恢复到疫前水平，去年的商品消费平均增速达到8%，服务消费平均增速更是高达18%。据摩根大通、旧金山联储等机构测算，超额储蓄大约到今年第三季度才逐渐耗尽。也就是说，虽然今年没有直接向居民发钱，但疫情期的财政举措实际上仍在支持经济。疫情结束后，拜登陆续推出了《基础设施投资和就业法》、《芯片和科学法案》以及《通胀削减法案》，期望通过政府与资本合作的模式增强美国制造业的能力。从实际数据来看，拜登三大法案确实刺激了计算机、电子元件等制造业投资。美国财政部认为制造业建设支出相比2021年末已经翻倍，高速与街道、供水等基础设施的建设支出均实现10%以上的实际增长。尽管会带来极高的赤字率，拜登政府积极的产业政策确实强力支持了经济扩张。美国联邦政府12个月滚动赤字率在2023上半年高达8.4%，几乎达到2009年金融危机的水平。历史上，美国财政扩张基本都伴随着高失业率，也即在经济显著下行时刻进行逆周期调节。在目前劳动市场火热、通胀高企时继续扩张财政实属罕见。粗略计算，上半年名义赤字比2022年增长8339亿美元，而名义GDP同期增长约8440亿美元，显示财政的作用不容忽视。货币滞后效应货币的滞后效应主要体现在三方面，居民、企业和市场流动性。美国房贷利率的计算方式分为浮动及固定两种。其中固定利率房贷以15和30年为主，在贷款期限内利率均为固定值，由银行承担利率变动的风险。利率较低时期，居民倾向选择固定利率贷款以锁定未来的低利息支出。浮动利率在新发放抵押贷款中的占比从2005年年中接近45%下降到2022年年中的仅约1% 。不仅如此，随着2020-2021年期间美国抵押贷款利率跌至历史最低水平，大量美国居民通过再融资用低息贷款置换存量高息贷款。根据抵押贷款技术和数据提供商Black Knight的数据，美国现存抵押贷款中超过60%的抵押贷款利率低于4%，超过26%的抵押贷款利率低于3%。美国联邦住房金融局数据显示，固定利率抵押贷款的占比从2005年66%增加到2022年97%，为历史最高水平。这说明几乎所有美国家庭都通过固定利率锁定了未来几十年的购买力。住房抵押贷款占美国家庭债务总规模约73%，远大于汽车贷款的9.1%、学生贷款9.4%和信用卡贷款的5.8%，是最主要的居民负债。正因如此，虽然美国30年期抵押贷款利率已经达到自疫情以来的最高值7.23%，但美国家庭受加息的影响有限，其负债利率和偿债支出仍然低于疫情前。利息上升同样需要时间才会影响到企业。以风险较高的高收益企业债为例，其发行量在2020-2021年大幅上升，并在美联储加息后几乎停止再融资。据估计，2022-2024年到期的企业债仅有10% 。许多美国和欧洲公司趁低利率时期大举发债并延长久期，从而享受几十年来最低的负债利息支出。另一方面，美联储加息令企业从现金管理中获得可观的资产收益率。也就是说，短期内企业不但没有感受加息的负担，反而在高息环境中是获益的。美联储的隔夜逆回购相当于一个大型流动性蓄水池。2022年逆回购额稳定在2.2万亿附近，未能抵消美联储缩表，净流动性下降给市场带来了负面影响。然而随着长债利率升高和市场风险偏好改善，近半年隔夜逆回购下降超过8000亿美元，为高赤字率下财政部大规模发债提供了良好的支持。得益于2020-2021年量化宽松积累的庞大流动性，在隔夜逆回购保持平稳下降的条件下，缩表和发债对市场的负面影响十分有限。结语美联储已将利息提高至近二十年的最高水平，然而无论是居民、企业还是政府，似乎尚未感受到加息的痛苦。美国居民超额储蓄之多，政府赤字率之高，居民和企业负债的固定利率之低，以及逆回购储备的流动性之庞大，均为历史加息周期中所罕见。这些因素令紧缩的滞后效应比以往更久，也解释了美国超预期的经济韧性来源于何处，很多市场主体实际上仍在享受两年前财政与货币大宽松的红利。然而滞后不代表消失，加息的影响在随着时间扩大，这意味着未来经济逐渐走弱时货币环境反而可能比今天更加收紧。回望历史，市场真正的下跌往往在降息后才开始。本轮加息周期的特殊性给未来的美联储出了新的难题，似乎无意间历史将再次重演。

The minor parties gave glimpses of their own cooperation styles at the Newshub Nation Powerbrokers' debate, while polls continued to signal Labour on the downturn.  GDP numbers also showed no recession for New Zealand, although inflation remains high. This week's Focus on Politics is RNZ's roundtable discussion covering the major happenings of the 2023 election campaign. RNZ political editor Jane Patterson, deputy political editor Craig McCulloch, and Newsroom and Stuff political editors Jo Moir and Luke Malpass spoke to Morning Report host Corin Dann. 

Amid a set of near-term headwinds from the oil shock, UAW strike, possible government shutdown the restart of student loan repayments, we maintain the US expansion continues. We have less conviction in Europe, were we now see GDP growth stalling amid a different set of headwinds. Making sense of this tension and how it resolves is important to the outlook. It is also a challenge faced by central banks trying to return inflation to target without generating a recession. Speakers: Bruce Kasman Joseph Lupton This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2023 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.  

Even if he intends to run, President Biden is not in a good position to get re-elected. Meanwhile, President Trump should have never been counted out. Americans are ready for a change. In this episode, Dan Sullivan and Mark Young discuss why a big change is due, and what we can expect to shift over the coming years. In This Episode: Forty years of college graduates have been found wanting in the eyes of the average American people. The Republicans winning the house has turned out to be much more momentous than anyone thought. Investigations into the Biden family will go back to when he was senator of Delaware. Lifetime bureaucrats have never created anything. At some point, there will be consensus in the Democratic Party to get Biden out of there. The percentage of the American economy that's involved in foreign trade is 12% of the GDP. The Democrats fall into the Great Society model, which states that there are only a few gifted people in the world who have the intelligence to make decisions. All the economic flow will go to people who actually know how to do things. No blue-collar jobs are endangered by ChatGPT. Resources:   The Storm Before the Calm by George Friedman   The End of the World Is Just the Beginning: Mapping the Collapse of Globalization by Peter Zeihan   Visual Capitalist   Blunt Force Truth podcast

Consumer spending is the driving force of the US economy, accounting for about 70% of GDP. So when consumers start to cut back on spending, it's a big red flag for the economy.That's why economists worry about a potential fall consumer spending drop. There are several factors that could contribute to this, including:High inflation: Inflation has been at a 40-year high in recent months, and it's eating into consumers' disposable incomes. This makes it harder for people to afford to buy the things they need and want.Rising interest rates: The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to combat inflation. This is making it more expensive to borrow money, which could lead to a slowdown in consumer spending.Student loan payments: Student loan payments are scheduled to resume in October after being paused for nearly two years. This could put a strain on household budgets and lead to a decrease in consumer spending.Economic uncertainty: The global economy is facing several challenges, including the war in Ukraine and supply chain disruptions. This uncertainty could lead consumers to be more cautious about their spending.Current credit pressureCredit pressure is the difficulty that borrowers have in repaying their debts. It can be caused by several factors, including rising interest rates, job losses, and unexpected expenses. This could have the most significant impact on restaurant spending.Recent Savor.FM Data Trends42% of 18-34 Plan to reduce restaurant spending this Holiday season38% of Families are looking to reduce their restaurant visits this seasonCredit pressure is currently on the rise in the US. This is partly due to the factors mentioned above, such as high inflation and rising interest rates. It is also driven by the fact that consumers have accumulated more debt than ever.Inflation pressureInflation pressure is the upward pressure on prices caused by an increase in the demand for goods and services. Supply chain disruptions and other factors can also cause it.Inflation pressure is currently at a 40-year high in the US. This makes it more expensive for consumers to buy the things they need and want. It is also putting a strain on businesses, making it more difficult for them to operate.What to doIf you are concerned about a potential consumer spending drop in the fall, there are a few things you can do to prepare:Create budget-friendly menu products. Focus on ways to assist the consumer in saving money in your marketing. Enhance loyalty programs so there is more value when they do spend.

(9/21/23) The markets' response to Wednesday's FOMC meeting and comments from Jerome Powell were the same as the past eight such announcements. The unspoken question: When will the Fed begin to cut rates? Preparation for Q4 is underway as earnings season wraps; markets are close to end of current corrective phase, and volatility is beginning to warm up. The Fed offered no hope or magical language for Markets. Higher for Longer will be the theme, with no material change from previous statements. The Fed's economic projections are never correct. We're expecting negative revisions to previous GDP numbers. Are higher interest rates here to stay? Does the "neutral rate" reflect what's happening or what's lagging? Demographics are destiny. What the Fed didn't say: What's coming will drive policy; a "soft-landing" is not the Fed's base-line expectation. The Fed WANTS Recession. SEG-1: Market Response in FOMC Aftermath SEG-2: What the Fed Said SEG-3: Higher Interest Rates Forever? SEG-4: What the Fed Didn't Say Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLEarr1D2-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=17s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Post-Meeting Fed = Opportunity" is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1  ------- Our previous show is here: "The Way You Invest in Bonds is WRONG!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IOGmhwnntw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is This Time Different- Unpacking Bond Yields" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-this-time-different-unpacking-bond-yields/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #JeromePowell #SoftLanding #Demographics #NeutralRate #BondYields #GDP #Markets #Money #Investing

There are many reasons why central Ohio is a fertile ground for innovation and why the areas surrounding Columbus are ideal for testing new approaches to consumer behavior. It's a diverse city with five Fortune 500 companies and 19 Fortune 1,000 companies in a wide range of industries, from banking and insurance to fashion. No single industry contributes more than 18% of GDP and together, they bolster a region that's experiencing active and sustainable growth. In addition, Columbus has a relatively low cost of living, temperate climate and demographics that are reflective of the country at large. The bottom line is this well-balanced community creates an environment of low volatility that makes it an ideal place to try new things.These attractive attributes extend to healthcare as well. Central Ohio has a diverse payer market where no one payer holds more than a third of market share. Several leading health systems support the community, including OhioHealth, which is one of the largest. OhioHealth is a faith-based, nonprofit system with 35,000 associates, physicians and volunteers, and a network of 14 hospitals, 200+ ambulatory sites, hospice, home health, medical equipment and other health services spanning 47 Ohio counties.As OhioHealth's Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer, Michael Krouse is responsible for the future direction of the organization and ensuring a strategic framework that delivers operational excellence and growth by meeting consumers' needs with a diverse portfolio of services. Michael joined OhioHealth as CIO in 2007 after spending the previous 20+ years in healthcare executive roles at UW Medicine, First Consulting Group, E&Y and Arthur Young in the Pacific Northwest.In this episode of Healthcare is Hard, Keith Figlioli spoke with Michael to explore “the new normal” in healthcare and what the industry will look like at it settles into the post-COVID world. Michael discussed his perspective and predictions on the new normal including:The sweet spot of scale. As a $6 billion health system, OhioHealth is a growth company at its core. But Michael says the path to becoming a $20 billion system is not as urgent as it was a few years ago. He points to health system megamergers and the difficulties those organizations have had driving ROI, and discusses how the market is rewarding systems with greater focus.Lumpy operating margins. While volumes are recovering in many places around the country, margins are still inconsistent for most systems and the rebound is not enough to avoid making tough decisions. With margins that are less than what's required to fund growth and capital for many health systems, Michael foresees the need for major decisions around cost savings and efficiency that will be required for survival.Spinning up new business lines quickly. The healthcare industry is not historically known for quickly or successfully establishing new business lines where it lacks experience. Michael believes this will have to change in the new normal and says one path to success is through partnerships. He discusses examples of OhioHealth's partnerships with ChenMed, Privia and Devoted Health and how they helped deploy new capabilities far more quickly than doing it alone.Inside innovation ecosystems. Michael shares his strong beliefs on the strategic role venture capital and private equity relationships can have helping health systems anticipate market needs and transform in a way that differentiates them. He talks about OhioHealth's approach to strategic investing and business incubation, and how it's always driven by the operational interest of the health system.To hear Keith and Michael talk about these topics and more, listen to this episode of Healthcare is Hard: A Podcast for Insiders.

Even with the possibility of a fourth-quarter slowdown in consumer spending, positive data across the board suggests the U.S. economy is still on track for a soft landing.----- Transcripts -----Ellen Zentner: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Sarah Wolfe: And I'm Sarah Wolfe, also on Morgan Stanley's U.S. Economics Team. Sarah Wolfe: And today on the podcast, we'll be discussing our updated U.S. economic outlook for the final quarter of 2023. It's Thursday, September 21, at 10 a.m. in New York. Sarah Wolfe: Ellen, since early 2022, you and our team have had a conviction that the U.S. economy would slow without a crash and experienced a soft landing. We maintained that view in our mid-year outlook four months ago, but we've recently revised it with an expectation for even stronger growth in the U.S.. Can you highlight some of the main drivers behind our team's more upbeat outlook? Ellen Zentner: Yes, so I think for me, the most exciting thing about the upward revisions we've made to GDP is that there's a real manufacturing renaissance going on in the U.S. and according to our equity analysts, it is durable and organic. So it's not just being driven by fiscal policy around the CHIPS Act and the IRA, but this is de-risking of supply chains, it's happening across semiconductors, our industrials teams have noted it, our construction teams and our LATAM teams around what's going on in terms of on-shoring, nearshoring with Mexico being the biggest beneficiary. So I think that's a really exciting development that is durable and then the consumer has been more resilient than expected. And I know that, Sara, you've been writing about Taylor Swift effect, Beyoncé effect, Barbenheime, you know, and it's just added to a very robust consumer this year than we had initially expected. Sarah Wolfe: Ellen, and what about inflation? What role does inflation continue to play at this point? Is the disinflationary process still underway and what are our expectations for the rest of this year and next? Ellen Zentner: Yes, So I think the disinflationary process has actually played out faster than expected. Well, let me say it's coming in line with our forecast, but much faster than, say, the Fed had expected. And we do expect that to continue. I think some of the concerns have been that the economy has been so strong this year and so would that interrupt that disinflationary process? And we don't think that's the case. The upward revisions that we've taken to GDP that reflect things like the manufacturing renaissance also come with stronger productivity, and they're not necessarily inflationary. But Sara, since your focus is on the U.S. consumer, let me turn it to you and ask you about oil prices. So oil prices have rallied here, you've spent a good deal of time looking at the impact that rising prices might have on real consumer spending, so how do you go about analyzing that? Sarah Wolfe: You're correct. Energy prices do impact consumer spending and in particular, when the price jumps are driven by supply side factor. So supply coming offline, that acts like a tax on households and we see a decline in real spending. We in particular see real spending impacted in the durable goods sector and in autos in particular. We have seen quite a rally recently in oil prices. It's definitely not to the extent of what we saw last year, but what we're going to be watching is how sustained the rally in oil prices are. The higher prices stay for longer, the more it impacts real consumer spending. Ellen Zentner: So retail sales have been strong, when are they going to be slowing? I mean we're going into the fourth quarter here, all on the consumer it looks like it's been stronger than expected. And I know this is sort of a maybe too broad of a question, but are consumers still in good health? Sarah Wolfe: As you mentioned earlier, consumer spending has been more resilient than expected. In part, it's been due to the fact that we've seen a full rebound in discretionary services spending, but it was not paired with a one for one payback in discretionary goods, which we've seen in the retail sales report, have held up better. And so while the consumer remains fairly healthy, we do expect to still see that pretty notable spending slowdown in the fourth quarter and part of that is being driven by the fundamentals. We have a cooling labor market, a rising savings rate, higher debt service obligations. But then as you also mentioned earlier, we had the roll off of some of these one off lifts like Barbenheimer, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. Ellen Zentner: So why doesn't the consumer just fall off a cliff then? Sarah Wolfe: Because part of our big call for the soft landing is that the labor market is going to be relatively resilient. We do have jobs slowing, but we do not have a substantial rise in the unemployment rate because we think this labor hoarding thesis is going to help support the labor market. So at the end of the day, while there's pressure mounting on consumer wallets, if they have a job, they will continue to spend, though at a slower pace. Ellen Zentner: All right. So if labor income and healthy job growth is the key to consumer spending, you know, what are we telling investors about the UAW strike? Because that really muddies the picture for how strong the labor market is. Sarah Wolfe: The UAW strike is definitely worth watching, there's 146,000 union workers that work for the big three. At this point, the impacts should be fairly contained, we only have 13,000 workers on strike at three different plants. However, if we see a large-scale strike of all the union workers, that lasts for some time, I mean that's definitely going to take a hit to the labor market. It would be a one off hit because when the strikers come back, you see them re-added to payrolls. But it definitely will be a more sustained hit to economic activity and motor vehicle production. It's very hard to make up all the production that is lost when workers are on strike. So we're definitely watching this very closely and it's definitely a risk factor to economic growth in the fourth quarter. Ellen, I'm turning it back to you, with all these various factors in play has anything changed in our Fed path? Ellen Zentner: No, it hasn't. In fact, as the data comes in and what we're looking for ahead, it tells me even more so that the Fed is done here. So they're sitting on a federal funds rate of 5.25% to 5.50%, and there are a lot of pitfalls possibly ahead with the incoming data. So you have GDP benchmark revisions, which will be significant by our estimate, that are released on September 28th, so later this month. Two days later, government shutdown possible. You talked about the UAW strike that's gonna, again, muddy the picture for job gains. And so there's a lot on the horizon here. You know, in the environment of inflation falling and question mark around how much policy lags still have to come through, I think it's just a recipe for the Fed to go ahead and hold rates steady and so we think that they're done here. All right. So we'll leave it there. Sarah, thanks for taking the time to talk. Sarah Wolfe: As always, great speaking with you, Ellen. Ellen Zentner: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

(9/21/23) The markets' response to Wednesday's FOMC meeting and comments from Jerome Powell were the same as the past eight such announcements. The unspoken question: When will the Fed begin to cut rates? Preparation for Q4 is underway as earnings season wraps; markets are close to end of current corrective phase, and volatility is beginning to warm up. The Fed offered no hope or magical language for Markets. Higher for Longer will be the theme, with no material change from previous statements. The Fed's economic projections are never correct. We're expecting negative revisions to previous GDP numbers. Are higher interest rates here to stay? Does the "neutral rate" reflect what's happening or what's lagging? Demographics are destiny. What the Fed didn't say: What's coming will drive policy; a "soft-landing" is not the Fed's base-line expectation. The Fed WANTS Recession. SEG-1: Market Response in FOMC Aftermath SEG-2: What the Fed Said SEG-3: Higher Interest Rates Forever? SEG-4: What the Fed Didn't Say Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLEarr1D2-E&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=17s -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Post-Meeting Fed = Opportunity" is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv9TgvqoRY8&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "The Way You Invest in Bonds is WRONG!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IOGmhwnntw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=4s -------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is This Time Different- Unpacking Bond Yields" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/is-this-time-different-unpacking-bond-yields/ "October Weakness Before The Year-End Run?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/october-weakness-before-the-year-end-run/ "Bond Vigilantes And The Waiting For Godot" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bond-vigilantes-and-the-waiting-for-gadot/ ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Register for our next Candid Coffee: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/3016835714744/WN_zCk25t5QThq7CG5NHH4UIg ------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #FederalReserve #FOMC #interestRates #JeromePowell #SoftLanding #Demographics #NeutralRate #BondYields #GDP #Markets #Money #Investing

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published revised GDP figures, upending the post-pandemic economic narrative. It turns out that Britain's economy recovered much quicker than previously thought and is no longer an international outlier. So how did the ONS find a load of economic output down the back of the sofa? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week: What could we measure instead of GDP? Selected links Impact of Blue Book 2023 changes on gross domestic product - Office for National StatisticsWhat is GDP and how do we measure it? | National Statistical China's Official Economic Data: Is It Accurate? | St. Louis FedBeyond GDP: Three Other Ways to Measure Economic Health | St. Louis FedGet in touch

In a world where communication is only as effective as its ‘truthiness', numbers are vital to political success. But, as John Lanchester explains on this week's episode, some of the most influential stats in UK politics are ‘pants'. John joins Tom to discuss why GDP, immigration numbers and English Premier League odds are so frequently misleading, and how we can be better attuned to the misuse of data.Find further reading on the episode page: lrb.me/thinkofanumberSubscribe to Close Readings:In Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3pJoFPqIn other podcast apps: lrb.me/closereadings Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this episode of Lochhead on Marketing, we are presenting some Pirates Perspective from our newsletter, Category Pirates about consumer spending trends. Eddie Yoon, Christopher Lochhead and Katrina Kirsch of Category Pirates discuss the latest consumer spending reports and what they mean for the retail category and retail category queens. They also dive into a category opportunity for McDonalds and how it could impact the future of food delivery. Welcome to Lochhead on Marketing. The number one charting marketing podcast for marketers, category designers, and entrepreneurs with a different mind. The Changing Retail Landscape Eddie Yoon examines the evolving economic landscape and its impact on U.S. consumers. Employing a Category Science lens, Eddie highlights significant disparities in economic indicators. Disposable personal income in July saw a mere 0.15% uptick, the year's lowest, while personal consumption expenditures (PCE) surged by 0.82%, marking a 2023 high. This income-spending disconnect raises concerns. Eddie notes the imminent return of student loan payments, averaging $503 per month, which may strain disposable income. Loan delinquencies, nearing 2020 levels, signal financial challenges. Notably, a fourfold increase in young adults aged 25 to 34 living with parents since the 1960s reflects economic constraints driving lifestyle changes. Prompted by Christopher, Eddie also identifies two contrasting trends: robust growth in experiences and personal transformations versus declining interest in traditional goods. While international travel and categories like medical aesthetics flourish, traditional retailers like Target, Kroger, and Home Depot report declining revenues. Eddie predicts a future marked by consolidation and M&A, with only a select few brands and private labels surviving. Navigating the Shifting Consumer-Driven Economy Christopher Lochhead and Eddie Yoon then tackle the intriguing dual signals in the economy, driven by increasing digital influence on consumer behavior. On one hand, positive indicators suggest the American consumer remains a key economic driver, with retail sales growing by 0.6% in August and a forecasted real GDP growth of 3.5% for the third quarter. However, Eddie Yoon emphasizes the underlying shifts: Consumers are driving economic growth through increased credit spending, but it raises questions about sustainability. Many are making significant changes in their financial habits, including declining college enrollments, reduced home purchases, and a lower birth rate, all contributing to a redefined economic landscape. The trend toward single-person households, now at 29%, signifies a fundamental shift in the traditional nuclear household model. While the macroeconomic picture may still appear positive, these changes point to a significant remaking of the American economy, shaped by evolving consumer preferences influenced by digital transformations. McDonald's Dilemma Christopher and Eddie then discuss McDonald's recent announcement to phase out fountain drinks inside their stores by 2032, which highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior. Currently, 40% of their revenue is generated through app purchases, delivery, and drive-thru, indicating a decline in physical store visits. This trend reflects the changing preferences of Native Digitals, who prefer digital-first experiences and the conveniences they bring. As consumers become more discerning and value experiences over material possessions, businesses need to adapt to these mega trends. Eddie Yoon points out that while some trends are favorable, like digital and app-focused sales, the shift in product mix poses challenges. McDonald's heavily relies on the profitability of fountain drinks, which drive a substantial portion of their margins. However, the convenience of home beverages and changing consumer preferences may lead to a decline in the sale of large-size drinks at McDonald's,

The popcorn trade of the day was as predictable as ever! Volatility abound with the FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference. Today we will look at unemployment, GDP, inflation and much more! I'll also show some charts that have me scratching my head at what the Fed is thinking.   Send in your questions live starting at 2pm PT today!   #trading #futures #cryptocurrency #bitcoin #FOMC #inflation Sign up for a free, 6 video course on Cryptocurrency here: https://www.tradingacademy.com/crypto/ Contact TraderMerlin: Email – TraderMerlin@gmail.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13930555/ Twitter: TraderMerlin - https://twitter.com/TraderMerlin IG: TraderMerlin - https://www.instagram.com/tradermerlin/ FB: TraderMerlin  - https://www.facebook.com/TraderMerlin Live Daily Show:  - https://www.youtube.com/TraderMerlin   Trading Applications used: #TastyWorks, #ThinkOrSwim #CliK, #TradeStation, #TradingView, #Barchart

Episode 76 (rr) -Learn Fun Facts about Hispanic Heritage that they did not teach you in school. This episode originally dropped September 30, 2021. The historical facts remain the same population and economic metrics have grown. The Hispanic population in the U.S. has surged to an impressive 63.7 million, constituting more than 19% of the nation's total. Hispanic purchasing power now stands at an astonishing $2.5 trillion. Imagine this: if U.S. Hispanics were a sovereign nation, they'd boast the world's fifth-largest GDP. Join us for an eye-opening exploration of these captivating Hispanic heritage facts!

The Business of Meetings – Episode 184 – How Do 58+ Million American Households Spend their Holidays? Today, we are delighted to speak with David Basler, Chief Strategy Officer of the National Association of RV Parks and Campgrounds (ARVC). In an industry boasting a trillion-dollar economic footprint, with 12 to 13,000 sites across America, and serving the vacation ambitions of over 58 million households, the ARVC plays a pivotal role in shaping and supporting the thriving world of RV parks and campgrounds.  David joins us to share his expertise, insights, and perspective on the current state and future potential of the dynamic RV and campground industry. Bio: A champion of whatever community he's a member of, David Basler is an entrepreneurial spirit, business leader, and philanthropist.  After working in publishing on the East Coast, David moved to historic Creede, Colorado in 2002 and started Creede Magazine Publishing, which he owned and operated until 2008. During this time, he also founded Keep Creede Beautiful, a nonprofit to maintain the beauty of Creede, and the John David Lentz Memorial Fund, which provides annual funding to the Creede Repertory Theatre.  After a 6-year stint with Meeting Professionals International (MPI) in Dallas, David, along with his wife, two daughters, and two dogs, moved to Denver in 2014. He is currently the Chief Strategy Officer for the National Association of RV Parks and Campgrounds, an organization representing more than 3,000 privately owned RV parks and campgrounds across North America. He and his wife, Amanda, are avid collectors of fine art and they remain extremely active philanthropically in the arts and education. Working alongside their oldest daughter, they lead both the John David Lentz Memorial Fund and the Genny Basler Memorial Fund. David also sits on the board of the Creede Center for the Arts and the advisory board of the Creede Repertory Theatre. When it's playtime, David enjoys fly-fishing, hiking, running, and travel, having visited all 50 states and more than 25 countries on three continents. David's journey David's journey began in high school when he discovered his passion for writing and communications through the guidance of a dedicated teacher and joined a remarkable high school magazine project. That publication, unlike most other school newspapers, was a full-color glossy magazine that earned numerous awards. Joining the magazine staff led to lasting friendships, and the impact of that formative experience left an indelible mark on his career trajectory, underscoring the profound impact of mentorship and community engagement. After college, he worked as an editor on the East Coast before realizing his dream of starting his own publication in Colorado. That venture expanded into a successful publishing company, producing calendars and visitor guides, and becoming a vital part of the local community. Subsequently, David moved to Dallas and began working for MPI after selling his business. MPI During his time with MPI, David played a pivotal role in its publishing, marketing, and communications sectors. His efforts included overseeing the launch of One Plus, a rebrand of a magazine previously called Meeting Professional, aimed to educate and inform meeting professionals worldwide. The rebranding initiative persisted for about four years before the strategic decision was made to revert to the original Meeting Professional brand to align the publication more effectively with the identity of the organization and its members.  An RV Trip Planning Session  Eric and David had a serendipitous encounter that led to a memorable RV trip planning session. David drew on his expertise in the RV and campground industry to assist Eric in crafting an unforgettable journey that served as a testament to the industry's collaborative spirit and its emphasis on fostering a sense of community. The Flourishing RV and Campground Landscape  The RV and campground industry in the United States is economically significant, constituting approximately 2% of the GDP. The industry's consistent growth was underscored by an influx of new enthusiasts, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. David attributes the industry's appeal to its diverse accommodation options and the unique experiences offered within campgrounds. Championing the Industry  The National Association of RV Parks and Campgrounds (ARVC) is tireless in its efforts to advocate for the RV and campground industry in Washington, D.C. Its endeavors mostly revolve around showcasing the considerable financial impact of the industry and the sway wielded by campground owners as influential voters. These advocacy undertakings focus on emphasizing the industry's significance to legislators and stakeholders. A Kaleidoscope of Campgrounds  The vast spectrum of campgrounds ranges from intimate, cozy sites to sprawling mega parks with thousands of slots. David highlights the pivotal role of diversity in catering to the varied preferences of campers. The ethos of campgrounds is centered on inclusivity, ensuring that every individual, regardless of background or preferences, can find a campground that resonates with their desires. Creating Lasting Memories  The transformative power of camping experiences is unparalleled! Campgrounds play a significant role in crafting enduring memories and fostering a profound sense of community among campers. The Industry's Forward Trajectory  David envisions a future where the RV and campground industry continue flourishing over the next decade. Despite potential hurdles, such as fluctuations in interest rates, the innate strength and resilience of the RV and campground industry are anticipated to weather any storm. Connect with Eric On LinkedIn On Facebook On Instagram On Website Connect with David Basler On LinkedIn National Association of National Parks and Campgrounds (ARVC)  

While the ECB followed headline inflation with raised policy rates yet again last week, the Fed meeting this week may be more focused on core inflation and a hiking pause.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Global Chief Economist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about the debate around oil price effects on inflation and growth, and what it means for central banks. It's Monday, September 18th at 10 a.m. in New York. Last week, the European Central Bank raised its policy rate again. We had expected them to leave rates unchanged, but President Lagarde reiterated that inflation is too high and that the Governing Council is committed to returning inflation to target. She specifically referenced oil among rising commodity prices that pose an upside risk to inflation. From the summer lows of around $70 per barrel, the price of Brent oil has risen to over $93 a barrel. How much should oil prices figure in to the macro debate? In previous research our economics team has tried to quantify the pass through of oil prices to inflation and different economies. Our takeaway is that for developed market economies, the pass through from oil prices to even headline inflation tends to be modest on average. In the quarter, following a 10% increase in oil prices, headline inflation rises about 20 basis points on average. For the euro area in particular, we have estimated that an increase like we have seen of $20 a barrel should result in about a 50 basis point increase in headline inflation. For core inflation the pass through tends to be less, about 35 basis points. Especially given the starting point though, such a rise is not negligible, but the effect should fade over time. Either the price of oil will retreat or over the next year the base effects will fall out. But energy prices can also affect spending. Recent research from the Fed estimates the effects of oil prices on consumption and GDP across countries. They estimate that a 10% increase in oil prices depresses consumption spending in the euro area by about 23 basis points. What's the mechanism through which oil price shocks affect consumption? Consumer demand for energy tends to be somewhat inelastic. That is, it's harder to substitute away from buying energy than other categories of spending. So back to the ECB, we had not expected them to hike rates, but we did think it was a close call. Core inflation had started to come down, and when it became clear that core services inflation that peaked and was drifting lower against a backdrop of signs pointing to a weaker euro area economy, we revised our call to no hike. So from our perspective, the ECB has increased the risk of hiking perhaps too much based on headline inflation. The ECB statement last week noted that inflation "is still expected to remain high for too long", but because it seems that they are now done hiking, the debate is going to turn to the duration of this so-called "higher for longer" with the policy rate. With the effects of inflation passing over time, but the drag of GDP showing up over the next few quarters, we get more comfortable expecting rate cuts there as early as June next year. The Fed is meeting this week and the last US CPI print showed headline inflation boosted by higher gasoline prices. Sound familiar? Well, our colleagues in the U.S. team have stressed that the Fed will likely look through the non core inflation. And, as in Europe, the increases in oil prices should lower purchasing power for consumers in the near term, further limiting economic activity and that is part of the objective of higher policy rates right now. With the Fed's focus on core rather than headline inflation, the last data print gives more reason to think the Fed is done hiking. Taking the last CPI print and combining it with last week's data from the Producer Price Index, you can infer a monthly rate of 0.14% for core PCE inflation in August. When the Federal Open Market Committee revisits its June economic projections, they will essentially be forced to revise down their forecasts for core inflation for this year. Thanks for listening and if you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

The full gang has a great deep dive on the full deep dive around the economics of the Aaron Rogers injury. Each member gives a full GDP number of the money that will be lost via the trickle down effect due to this injury. Other topics covered were breaking down Anthony Olivers wish for keeping ticket prices low as a rising start and how we would spend our winnings if we hit the $2 Billion lottery! 10:00-Football Season over in Hoboken? 20:00-Aaron Rogers Injury 28:00-Anthony Oliver 52:00 $2 billion loterry

0:00 Intro 2:03 Major News 9:40 RFK Jr. 34:22 The Three-Front War 43:43 Seattle 49:12 Interview with Steve Poplar - Coordinated media attack on Russell Brand is obviously CONTRIVED to SILENCE a truth teller - US DoD wants a THREE-front war: #Russia #China and #Mexico all at the same time (INSANE) - US Army War College warns U.S. should expect 100,000 casualties PER MONTH - "Partial conscription" will be necessary to replace all the dead US soldiers (men and women) - UAW strike could put 146,000 workers out of work and plummet GDP by $5.6 billion - Auto manufacturers are destroying themselves by making EVs nobody wants - Texas AG Ken Paxton survives impeachment attempt engineered by Bush family, RINOs and Dems - Weekend assassination attempt targeted RFK, Jr. (but failed thanks to his security team) - Los Angeles spends $44,000 PER TENT to build a tent city for ever-increasing #homeless - Democrat policies will produce a huge increase in homelessness, lawlessness and crime - Entire city for #illegals being built in Texas, North of Houston... a BEACH HEAD for invasion - #California passes $20 minimum wage law that will obliterate the entire fast food industry - RFK Jr. holds town hall event and announces final warning to #DNC over election rigging - Will RFK Jr. run as an independent? Does this help Dems, or Trump? For more updates, visit: http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport NaturalNews videos would not be possible without you, as always we remain passionately dedicated to our mission of educating people all over the world on the subject of natural healing remedies and personal liberty (food freedom, medical freedom, the freedom of speech, etc.). Together, we're helping create a better world, with more honest food labeling, reduced chemical contamination, the avoidance of toxic heavy metals and vastly increased scientific transparency. ▶️ Every dollar you spend at the Health Ranger Store goes toward helping us achieve important science and content goals for humanity: https://www.healthrangerstore.com/ ▶️ Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html ▶️ Brighteon: https://www.brighteon.com/channels/hrreport ▶️ Join Our Social Network: https://brighteon.social/@HealthRanger ▶️ Check In Stock Products at: https://PrepWithMike.com

日本去杠杆化，1990年至今日本20多年来一直陷入温和的“毁灭性的通货紧缩去杠杆化”之中。1989年，私营部门债务泡沫破裂，政府部门财政扩张开始，但从未有足够的“印钞”来导致名义增长高于名义利率并导致货币贬值。尽管日本已经放松了一些措施，但名义收入增长却停滞不前，持续的通货紧缩侵蚀了温和的实际增长。与此同时，名义债务增长速度更快，推高债务水平，从1989年底占GDP的400%左右上升到如今的500%。股市下跌近70%。总体而言，在日本经济中，新增借款仅能满足持续的偿债需求，仅此而已。持续的通货紧缩增加了债务负担，而违约和实际增长则减轻了债务负担。在整个去杠杆化过程中，日本央行“印钞”的久期调整非常少，大部分都流向了久期较短的短期现金类资产。结果，通货再膨胀失败，政府债务负担沉重。2008年至今美国去杠杆化与20世纪30年代美国的去杠杆化一样，2008年的前期也是由债务驱动的繁荣组成的，去杠杆化分两个阶段进行：收入收缩，随后是通膨。不过这次美联储迅速担保债务并大举印钞，通缩仅持续了六个月（而20世纪30年代为三年多）。2009年3月开始通货再膨胀，收入恢复，债务负担从370%降至335%左右，低于最初的起始水平，股市收复所有跌幅。到目前为止，这次去杠杆化是有史以来最优秀的去杠杆案例。美联储宽松的幅度是巨大的。美联储不仅在流动性危机期间降息并支持基本信贷，而且通过将资金投入风险资产来推行最激进的宽松措施之一。2009年3月，美联储宣布实施重大第一次量化宽松，购买国债和机构支持债券，开始向金融体系注入资金。随着2010年8月开始的第二轮量化宽松和2011年秋季开始的扭转操作，美联储进一步增加了长期政府债务（主要是美国国债）的持有量。在这三个时期内，资产持有量在久期调整后（相当于10年期国债）的变化持续时间的峰值分别为GDP年化速度的8%、5%和约2%。2008年至今西班牙近期的去杠杆化西班牙一直在经历周期的第一个“恶性的通货紧缩”阶段，但尚未继续前进，由于欧洲央行的行动，它无直接法“印钞”。从2008年7月起，西班牙的收入也开始下降，而债务从那时起从约365%上升至接近400%。此后债务负担已趋于稳定，但仍高于去杠杆化开始时的水平。股市最初下跌近45%，但仍比2008年7月的水平低25%。尽管西班牙无法直接印钞，但欧洲央行通过购买其债券并向其银行提供流动性，将大量资金注入西班牙，从而防止了更严重的去杠杆化。它在2010年夏季和2011年秋季信贷收紧时再次提供了这种支持。在这两个时期，欧洲央行的购买高峰将资金推向西班牙风险资产，其比例超过西班牙GDP的10%（调整至10年期限）。资金的推动来自主权债券和担保债券购买以及短期贷款（例如最近的长期再融资）。尽管如此，欧洲央行并未将西班牙主权利差和利率压得足够低，以致名义增长率高于名义利率。西班牙的措施反应比美国慢得多，最重要的原因还是无法印钞。所以西班牙的信用利差攀升，偿债成本上升，导致债务比收入水平大幅上升。德国：1918‑1923年德国是一个恶性通货膨胀和违约侵蚀高得惊人的债务国家。1918年，政府在为战争支出提供大量借款后，债务占GDP的比例约为160%，从而结束了战争。在盟军要求德国以黄金支付赔款后，政府总债务上升至GDP的913%。1918年和1919年是经济收缩时期，实际收入在这两个时期下降了5%和10%年。随后，德意志在这一时期末通过在1919年12月至1920年2月期间将纸币兑美元和黄金贬值50%，刺激了收入和资产价格的复苏。随着货币下跌，通货膨胀开始上升。1920年至1922年间，通货膨胀侵蚀了以当地货币计价的政府债务，但对赔款债务没有影响，因为赔款是用黄金支付的。但在1922年夏天，德国停止支付赔款，并进入违约状态。经过持续到1932年的一系列谈判，赔款债务得到了重组并被清偿。货币贬值导致债权人青睐短期贷款，并将资金从货币中转移出来，这要求央行购买更多债务以填补空白。德国的案例是有史以来最极端的通胀去杠杆化案例之一。战争结束时，德国政府被迫在现金短缺和经济收缩或印钞刺激收入之间做出选择。政府选择印钞和贬值来刺激经济，从1919年底开始贬值50%，使经济摆脱了衰退。最终，人们对货币失去信心，大量印钞导致恶性通货膨胀，使货币基本一文不值，货币相对于黄金基本上下跌了100%，并且印钞呈指数级增长。1919年，无偿政府债务占GDP的133%，被通货膨胀冲掉了。1922年夏天，当赔款支付停止时，基于黄金的相当于GDP780%的赔款实际上陷入了违约。

欢迎收听雪球和喜马拉雅联合出品的财经有深度雪球国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台聪明的投资者都在这里。听众朋友们大家好我是主播匪石，今天分享的内容叫桥水：去杠杆化是如何运行的？来自长安卫公。上周，读了几遍达里奥2012年写的《深入了解去杠杆化》这篇文章。重读了几遍，对我们当前身处何处有了一些认知。达里奥指出，通常的去杠杆有三个流程，即“急性通缩去杠杆化”、“良性通胀去杠杆化”、“恶性通胀去杠杆化”。对于大多数没有外债的主权经济体，基本会存在“急性通缩去杠杆化”、“良性通胀去杠杆化”这两个过程。而对于有大量外债的国家，有可能进入“恶性通胀去杠杆化”这个无法挽回的阶段，例如欧债危机中的西班牙，以及一战后面临大量外债战争赔款的德国。目前，中美都在经历去杠杆的过程，从货币政策、贬值程度、GDP实际增速、十年国债利率来看，中美似乎都在“良性通胀去杠杆化”阶段徘徊，当前桥水的这篇内容，对于理解经济运行，有很重要的意义。本篇内容目的是展示过去全球典型的去杠杆事件，并通过这个过程深入研究去杠杆过程是如何运行的。去杠杆化过程降低了债务/收入的比率。当债务负担过大时，必须进行去杠杆化。这些去杠杆化可能做得好，也可能做得不好。有些非常毁灭性（造成巨大的经济痛苦、社会动荡，有时还引发战争，但未能降低债务与收入比率），而另一些却相当优秀。在这项研究中，我们将通过展示过去的一些去杠杆化是如何发生的，来回顾去杠杆化的机制。优秀的去杠杆化是非常平衡的，而毁灭性的去杠杆化是严重不平衡的。去杠杆化解决方案之间的差异取决于1）债务削减、2）紧缩、3）将财富从富人转移到穷人以及4）债务货币化的数量和步伐。在研究之前，我们将回顾一下典型的去杠杆化过程。1、典型的去杠杆过程在大多数情况下，去杠杆化处理的都不好，因为这种情况一生都会发生一次，而措施制定者却没有对其进行研究。因此，他们制定的措施通常就像盲人在热炉上做饭一样，经过痛苦的试错过程才能走向正确的决策。去杠杆化之间差异的四种途径，每一种都会降低债务/收入比率，但它们对通货膨胀和增长有不同的影响。债务削减（即违约和重组）和紧缩措施都会导致通货紧缩和抑制，而债务货币化则会导致通货膨胀和刺激。毁灭性的去杠杆化会使这些失去平衡，而优秀的去杠杆化则可以适当地平衡它们。换句话说，关键在于正确的组合。通常，为了应对债务危机，这四个步骤按以下顺序进行：首先，偿债困难和债务增长下降导致经济收缩，其中债务/收入比率上升，同时经济活动和金融资产价格下降。我们将这一阶段称为“急性通缩去杠杆化”。这一阶段的特点是债务减少和紧缩，但没有实质性的债务货币化。在此期间，私营部门信贷增长下降和流动性紧张导致对商品、服务和金融资产的需求下降。当没有足够的资金来偿还债务时，金融泡沫就会破裂，债务违约和重组会像雪崩一样，尤其是杠杆贷款机构（银行），引起人们的恐惧。这些合理的担忧会自行加剧并导致流动性危机。结果，措施制定者发现自己陷入了疯狂的争夺之中，试图在违约失控之前遏制它们。违约和重组不能太大或太快，因为一个人的债务是另一个人的资产，大幅削减这些资产价值的财富效应可能会对商品、服务和投资资产的需求造成毁灭性影响。为了将偿债支付减少到可持续水平，减记金额必须等于债务人能够偿还所需的金额（例如，假设减少30%），因此减记将减少债权人的资产按该金额计算的值。虽然30%听起来正常，但由于实体经营都设有杠杆，对其净资产的影响远大于设定值。例如，杠杆率为2:1的债权人的净资产将下降60%。由于银行的杠杆率通常约为12或15:1，这种情况对它们来说显然是毁灭性的。这通常从去杠杆化一开始就显而易见。由于去杠杆化过程中的违约浪潮一开始就显而易见，措施制定者通常会想方设法控制违约率。为了应对债务危机的冲击，措施制定者通常会尝试紧缩措施。由于债务人已经背负了太多债务，通常情况很难借到更多的钱，因此他必须削减支出，来保持与收入一致。但一个人的支出就是另一个人的收入，当支出减少时，收入也会减少，因此需要大量支出削减才能显着降低债务/收入比率。通常情况下，政府会因为债务削减带来通货紧缩和抑制效应，而进入“印钞”阶段。去杠杆的第二阶段是“良性去杠杆化”，债务与收入比率随着经济活动和金融资产价格的改善而下降。发生这种情况是因为有足够的“印钞/债务货币化”使名义增长率高于名义利率，并且用货币贬值抵消通缩力量，这创造了“良性的去杠杆化”。应对通货紧缩的最好办法是央行提供充足的流动性和信贷支持，政府也根据不同主体的资金需求提供充足的流动性和信贷支持。具体措施为中央银行为更广泛的抵押品（质量较低且期限较长）提供贷款，并购买（货币化）较低质量或长期债务。如果执行得当确实可以在正增长的同时实现去杠杆化。执行过程应该是这样：首先抵消通货紧缩信贷市场崩溃的影响；其次使名义增长率略高于名义利率，从而合理地展开去杠杆化进程。然后进入通货再膨胀时期，此时的货币会疲软，尤其是对黄金贬值，不过这个时期的通货再膨胀只为抵消了此前的通货紧缩。不过“印钞”过多且货币贬值（通货再膨胀）过于严重时，就会发生“恶性的通胀去杠杆化”。当然这件事情发生还有两个背景：要么该国家在没有储备货币、有大量外币计价债务且通货膨胀率以快速贬值的本币衡量的国家中迅速发生；要么它可能缓慢且较晚发生在储备货币国家的去杠杆过程中，经过长时间、大量的刺激，通过极端手段扭转通缩。2、历史的去杠杆化我们列举六个国家作为示范：1930年代的美国；50年代和60年代的英国；过去二十年的日本；2008年-至今的美国；现在的西班牙；1920年代的德国美国萧条和通货再膨胀，1930‑1937年美国20世纪30年代去杠杆化分两个阶段：1930年至1932年的通缩和1933年至1937年的通胀。1929年9月股市泡沫破裂之后发生，由于私营部门去杠杆化，收入锐减，到1932年底每年下降近30%。由于收入下降，债务与GDP比例从约150%上升至250%。在此期间，股票下跌了80%以上。第一阶段结束，第二阶段开始于1933年3月开始印钞。罗斯福打破了与黄金的挂钩，美元汇率在这一年里下跌了40%。与此同时通货再膨胀还导致经济活动增加，名义增长率高于名义利率。1937年，因美联储转向限制性措施，通胀结束，导致美国“经济衰退”。英国去杠杆化，1947‑1969英国在二战前和二战期间获得了大量债务，并在二战结束时进入经济衰退，导致债务负担更高。从1943年底到1947年底，债务水平从略高于GDP的250%上升到400%。1948年，随着收入的复苏，债务负担略有下降。但1949年9月，英国印钞并将英镑相对美元和黄金贬值30%，同时也将短期利率基本保持在零。结果，1948年至1969年间，名义增长率高于名义利率，债务水平下降了250%，股市上涨。英国在此期间通过宽松货币保持低利率的同时，1949年货币大幅贬值，英国央行在1950年将资产购买增加至GDP的1%左右，这两者都有助于保持名义增长率高于名义增长率。利率，这是降低债务与收入比率的最重要影响因素。

Stop the press! We're bringing you an extra dose of RTBC each week, as we dig back into our audio archives and brief you on a big idea that's having a moment. This week the UK's GDP estimates showed the economy shrunk in July, sparking fears of a recession. But what if there was a different way to measure a country's economic success? We spoke to Katherine Trebeck, Annie Quick and Kate Raworth about the alternatives, from doughnut economics to New Zealand's Wellbeing Budget. Can we move beyond our obsession with growth? And where do we go next?See you on Monday for our next episode of Reasons to be Cheerful!GuestsKatherine Trebeck, from the Wellbeing Economy Alliance (@ktrebeck)Annie Quick, formerly at the New Economics Foundation (@anniequick)Kate Raworth, founder of Doughnut Economics Action Lab (@KateRaworth)Listen to RTBC Episode 91: Who's Afraid of GDP (2019)Listen to RTBC Episode 195: A Big Idea to Rethink the Economy (2021)Let us know what you think about Reasons Revisited! Get in touch with us via our website or on social media (@cheerfulpodcast) Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This podcast hit paid subscribers' inboxes on Sept. 7. It dropped for free subscribers on Sept. 14. To receive future pods as soon as they're live, and to support independent ski journalism, please consider an upgrade to a paid subscription. You can also subscribe for free below:WhoMike Solimano, President and General Manager of Killington and Pico Mountains, VermontRecorded onSept. 5, 2023About KillingtonClick here for a mountain stats overviewOwned by: Powdr CorpLocated in: Killington, VermontYear founded: 1958Pass affiliations: Ikon Pass: 5 or 7 combined days with PicoReciprocal partners: Pico access is included on all Killington passesClosest neighboring ski areas: Pico (:12), Saskadena Six (:39), Okemo (:40), Twin Farms (:42), Quechee (:44), Ascutney (:55), Storrs (:59), Harrington Hill (:59), Magic (1:00), Whaleback (1:02), Sugarbush (1:04), Bromley (1:04), Middlebury Snowbowl (1:08), Arrowhead (1:10), Mad River Glen (1:11)Base elevation: 1,156 feet at Skyeship BaseSummit elevation: 4,241 feet at Killington PeakVertical drop: 3,085 feetSkiable Acres: 1,509Average annual snowfall: 250 inchesTrail count: 155 (43% advanced/expert, 40% intermediate, 17% beginner)Lift count: 20 (2 gondolas, 1 six-pack, 5 high-speed quads, 5 fixed-grip quads, 2 triples, 1 double, 1 platter, 3 carpets - view Lift Blog's inventory of Killington's lift fleet)About PicoClick here for a mountain stats overviewOwned by: Powdr CorpLocated in: Mendon, VermontYear founded: 1934Pass affiliations: Ikon Pass: 5 or 7 combined days with KillingtonReciprocal partners: Pico access is included on all Killington passes; four days Killington access included on Pico K.A. PassClosest neighboring ski areas: Killington (:12), Saskadena Six (:38), Okemo (:38), Twin Farms (:38), Quechee (:42), Ascutney (:53), Storrs (:57), Harrington Hill (:55), Magic (:58), Whaleback (1:00), Sugarbush (1:01), Bromley (1:00), Middlebury Snowbowl (1:01), Mad River Glen (1:07), Arrowhead (1:09)Base elevation: 2,000 feetSummit elevation: 3,967 feetVertical drop: 1,967 feetSkiable Acres: 468Average annual snowfall: 250 inchesTrail count: 58 (36% advanced/expert, 46% intermediate, 18% beginner)Lift count: 7 (2 high-speed quads, 2 triples, 2 doubles, 1 carpet - view Lift Blog's inventory of Pico's lift fleet)Why I interviewed himImagine if the statistical bureaus of nations operated like ski areas - the countries just threw around numbers with no basis in measurable reality. China could say it was bigger than Russia, U.S. America could claim more territory than Canada, and North Korea could say it was bigger than all of them combined (hell, it probably does).This is the world one steps into when trying to ascertain the size of New England ski areas. Mt. Abram claims 450 acres. Middlebury Snow Bowl brags on “600-plus acres of woods and glades,” which would make it larger than Sugarbush, the Alterra-owned mega-resort that undersells itself with a 581-acre tally. Here's what the aliens would see if they were to match our internet boasts up to measurable reality:Did Middlebury Snowbowl acquire the air rights over its mountain? Is Mt. Abram built like Istanbul, with several ancient ski areas buried beneath the modern foundation, giving us a vast ski labyrinth to explore?This strategy probably worked better when most skiers' mode of resort comparison was “scanning a bunch of brochures at a rest area.” It's harder to maintain when every human carries a device equipped with a map of planet earth in their pocket at all times. But ski areas keep fibbing anyway.Which is probably why, several years ago, Killington started measuring itself like a Western ski area: draw a border around the property – that's your skiable terrain. Oh, and we'll no longer yell at you for skiing in the woods, which is technically “terrain” even if the underbrush is too thick for anything larger than a chipmunk to navigate.Some of you would like me to challenge statistical inconsistency across the ski industry as a main feature of this newsletter. But I prefer to just make fun of it. If Mt. Abram wants to be the Baghdad Bob of New England skiing, well, what else are you going to do for attention when you're across the street from Sunday River, whose annual lift-upgrade budget exceeds the GDP of Australia?But until the North Conway Treaty of 2038, at which the ski areas of North America will collectively agree upon a universal statistical standard based upon actual measurements, I'm just going to take their word for it (sort of). Here's a list of New England ski areas from largest to smallest, by skiable acreage, according to the ski resort's own claims (I excluded Middlebury Snowbowl and Mt. Abram, which more accurately measure out at 110 and 170 acres, respectively):Anyone who's spent any amount of time skiing New England knows that something feels off with this list. Sugarbush, Stowe, and Jay – three of the dozen or so New England ski areas with reliable glades – ski as big as anything in the East. All three feel substantively larger than Stratton or Mount Snow. And neither Bolton Valley nor Black Mountain of Maine ski on the scale of Cannon or Waterville Valley.But no one is disputing that top line. Killington is the largest ski area in New England. You can quibble about the vertical drop – the gut of Killington is the 1,650-ish-foot K-1 face. To scoop up the full 3,000-plus feet requires a rarely-skied meander down to the Skyeship Base at US 4. Mt. Ellen at Sugarbush (2,600 vertical feet), Madonna at Smuggs (2,150), FourRunner at Stowe (2,046), the single chair at Mad River Glen (1,972 feet), and Sugarloaf's spectacular 2,820-foot face all deliver more sustained steep skiing than The Beast.But there's nothing else in the East on Killington's scale, the massive overlapping network of six peaks rolling in all directions from the frantic hub. It's one of the few ski areas, East or West, where I ever truly feel lost. There's something brilliantly scattershot about it, something feral and boundless and enigmatic, as though 16 small ski areas had been stapled together by someone who's never skied. There are insane traverses and endless flats, riotously steep trees and bumps all over, long groomers that you think lead back to the same lift you just exited, but instead seem to deposit you in New Hampshire. There are trails on the far fringe that feel abandoned on even the busiest days, where you suspect without being able to prove it that you've been transported to an alternate dimension of groomed forever-down, or at least back to a time before the Ikon Pass gave every skier on the eastern seaboard an annual allotment of Killington lift tickets.It all works somehow. This great machine, howling like an armor-plated Mad Max rig, a cobbled-together war machine screaming across the winter plains. It feels like it should fall apart, disintegrate by the combined forces of speed and volume. But it carries on, the growling, supercharged id of New England winter, The Beast a gloss well-earned.What we talked aboutWhat's behind Killington's run of June closings; building the Superstar Glacier; why “The Beast” returned; how Killington pulled off the 2022 World Cup with a wildly warm November; what happened to October openings; early- versus late-season energy; whether social media makes the spring skiing party seem bigger than it is; Pico's massive, multi-year snowmaking evolution; “Pico's probably not worth what one detachable lift costs on its own” – the hard math of lift upgrades; Powdr Corp's long-term commitment to Pico; Pico's private mid-week mountain rentals; the new K-1 lodge; falling in love with skiing on a Magic Mountain powder day; when you start as chief financial officer and the parent company informs you that they may not be able to make payroll the following month; Killington's rowdy transition from American Skiing Company to Powdr Corp to present-day calm; why Powdr Corp had such a tough time adapting to New England, and how the company finally did; online absurdities; the evolution of Powdr Corp; a Killington base village, on the way at last; why the village took so long to permit; “to be a successful village, it can't just be a bunch of condos”; putting pedestrians first; what the village will mean for parking at Ramshead, Snowshed, Vale, and K-1; employee housing; how the village will connect to the resort's lift system; whether we could see a lift from the village up to K-1; why Killington hasn't upgraded Snowshed yet; redesigning Killington Road; fixing Killington's water-quality issues; considering mass transit along Killington Road; priorities for lift upgrades at both ski areas; where Killington could install another six-pack; whether future sixers would have bubbles or D-line tech; why eight-pack lifts are unlikely; the potential for upgrades for the Bear Mountain quad and Snowden triple; what could eventually replace Outpost at Pico; current thinking around the Killington-Pico Interconnect; Fast Tracks two years in; Fast Tracks season passes; the Beast 365 and Ikon Base Pass add-on; and whether Beast 365 passholders are complaining about the dilution of the Ikon Base Pass (spoiler alert: they are).Why I thought that now was a good time for this interviewStorm Skiing Podcast #1: Killington & Pico President & General M