Podcasts about gdp

Welcome back to another episode of Money Moves. This week, hosts Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell unpack a wild week of market data, geopolitical tension, and shifting economic policies.Episode HighlightsOil & Geopolitics: Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil prices swinging from $85 up to $106. Ryan shares why a conflict resolution could drive energy costs down and push the S&P 500 to new highs.Economic Realities: PPI landed around 2.4% while GDP dipped to 0.7%. We also examine the staggering 104 million Americans currently outside the labor force.Powell's Farewell: Ahead of Jerome Powell's final FOMC speech before his May exit, the guys discuss the likelihood of a rate pause and what it means for the market.Crypto Momentum: Bitcoin saw a 10% relief rally, pushing it near $74.5k. Plus, a look at the delayed Clarity Act and what it means for the future of bank and crypto integration.The Real Estate Squeeze: With the income required to buy a median home hitting $111,000, renting is now significantly cheaper. The episode also covers a new Senate bill aimed at banning investors from buying single-family homes.Commercial Debt Wall: Over $875 billion in commercial mortgages are maturing this year, signaling major potential headwinds ahead.Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555FREE Financial X-Ray: Text  "XRAY" to 844-447-1555

At a time of record losses in farming, red-state governments are destroying farmland with solar, wind, carbon capture, data centers, Section 8 overdevelopment, and everything other than what land should be used for.  I also discuss how the dumb housing bill and HUD's obsession with housing supply will culturally gerrymander red states. I'm joined by Indiana state Rep. Andrew Ireland (R), the youngest and most conservative member of the Indiana legislature, who is waging a battle against the forces of special interests gobbling up Indiana's land. He explains how state Republicans have turned the land into a parking lot for special interests because they prioritize fake GDP numbers over authentic quality of life. We also discuss other challenges to red states like Indiana, such as Republicans lacking the will to combat blue cities, crime, and illegal immigration.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, has given his generals and admirals an unusual command: spend money. Lots of it. Quickly. For years, it was the other way around. Canada wore the uniform of a serious NATO ally – while undershooting the alliance's 2% of GDP defence spending target. Now, spurred by what Carney has called a “rupture” in geopolitics, Ottawa is adding billions to hit NATO's target by 31 March 2026 – the end of the fiscal year. Military leaders are scrambling to reverse a culture of frugality and long planning cycles. Parliament's budget watchdog has said the Department of National Defence sometimes struggles to spend the funds it already has. The Conservative defence critic has said the new billions are money “the department won't be able to shovel out the door.” Neal Razzell follows the money to see what changes — and what doesn't — when a military tries to expand at speed. In Quebec, at Canada's main basic training base, he watches the rebuild begin — as recruits and instructors grapple with the limits of time, staff and space. In British Columbia, at the Navy's Pacific headquarters, he asks the commander of Maritime Forces Pacific what “spend fast” can actually fix in a fleet Carney says is less than half operational.This episode of The Documentary comes to you from Assignment, investigations and journeys into the heart of global events.

The economy is sending completely mixed signals right now.GDP is growing.Unemployment is low.The stock market is near highs.…but people feel worse than ever.So what's actually happening?In this episode of Worth Knowing, I sit down with Moody's chief economist Mark Zandi to break down the 5 biggest economic risks that could shape the next 6 months—and possibly the next election.We cover:Why the economy feels broken even when the data looks “fine”Whether we're quietly heading toward a recessionThe real impact of oil prices and global instabilityWhy inflation won't go awayAnd how AI could reshape jobs faster than expectedIf you've been feeling like something doesn't add up with the economy… you're not wrong.

Let's talk about plummeting GDP in the US....

We look at what China's latest “Two Sessions” reveal about the direction of the world's second-largest economy. With Beijing setting its lowest GDP growth target since 1991, the focus appears to be shifting from rapid expansion to stability in an increasingly uncertain global economy. We explore what that means for businesses, investors and young people trying to find work in China today.If you'd like to get in touch with the team, our email address is businessdaily@bbc.co.ukPresenter: Rahul Tandon Producer: David CannBusiness Daily is the home of in-depth audio journalism devoted to the world of money and work. From small startup stories to big corporate takeovers, global economic shifts to trends in technology, we look at the key figures, ideas and events shaping business.Each episode is a 17-minute, daily deep dive into a single topic, featuring expert analysis and the people at the heart of the story.Recent episodes explore the weight-loss drug revolution, the growth in AI, the cost of living, why bond markets are so powerful, China's property bubble, and Gen Z's experience of the current job market.We also feature in-depth interviews with company founders and some of the world's most prominent CEOs. These include Google's Sundar Pichai, Wikipedia founder Jimmy Wales, and the CEO of Canva, Melanie Perkins.(Picture: Chinese President Xi Jinping, centre right, and Premier Li Qiang, centre left, arrive at the closing session of the National People's Congress at the Great Hall of the People on the 12th of March 2026 in Beijing, China. Credit: Getty Images)

Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on Spotify⁠⁠Follow Two Quants and a Financial Planner on AppleIn this episode, we break down the most important insights from the week on Excess Returns,, with insights from Vitaliy Katsenelson, Jim Paulsen, and Joseph Shaposhnik. Markets today are being shaped by powerful crosscurrents including AI disruption, defense spending, macro policy shifts, and historically high valuations. In this episode, we highlight the biggest ideas from our conversations and explore what they mean for investors trying to navigate an uncertain world. Topics include the importance of humility in investing, the potential disruption of software by AI, the growing divergence within the economy, and why long-term structural trends like defense spending may create new opportunities.Topics Covered• Why humility may be the most important trait for investors in a rapidly changing world• How uncertainty around AI, geopolitics, and macro policy is widening the range of possible market outcomes• Why some investors are reducing exposure to software businesses amid AI disruption• The importance of management teams that can adapt and evolve in periods of technological change• Jim Paulsen's framework for understanding the “new era” economy versus the rest of the economy• Why a small portion of the economy may now be driving overall GDP growth• The idea that successful investing may be about being “least wrong” rather than perfectly right• How long-term structural trends like defense spending could create a multi-year investment tailwind• Why experienced investors focus on analyzing businesses rather than reacting to headlines• The potential deflationary impact of AI and how lower prices could shift spending across the economy• Why high market valuations may act as a headwind for future returns• The importance of deep research and preparation when unexpected events hit markets• Jim Paulsen's concept of “policy juice” and how fiscal and monetary policy drive bull markets• Whether a new wave of policy support could broaden the current market rally beyond mega-cap techTimestamps00:00 Introduction02:00 Why humility matters more than ever in investing08:50 AI disruption and the future of software businesses18:07 The growing gap between the “new era” economy and the rest of the economy25:00 Surviving first and being the least wrong as an investor31:43 The potential defense spending supercycle37:44 AI's deflationary impact and how innovation reshapes economies44:42 Why valuations act as a long-term headwind for stocks50:56 How investors should respond to geopolitical events56:49 Jim Paulsen on policy juice and the future of the bull market

Economic growth is slowing, but inflation is still running above the Federal Reserve's target. In this episode, Kathy Fettke breaks down the latest data from the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, along with a sharp downward revision to U.S. GDP growth. Stocks rallied after the report came in largely as expected, but economists say the mixed signals create a complicated outlook for the Federal Reserve and interest rates. We'll also look at how rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could impact inflation in the months ahead—and what it could mean for mortgage rates and real estate investors.

Gold falls as war drives oil higher, but Peter Schiff says stagflation, deficits, and a weaker dollar are setting up gold's next major surge. Peter Schiff explains why the latest pullback in gold, silver, and mining stocks is not a sign that the bull market is over, but a temporary reaction to rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and a stronger dollar. He argues that markets are focusing too narrowly on delayed Fed rate cuts while missing the bigger picture: war-driven deficits, stubborn inflation, a weakening economy, and mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to eventually monetize even more debt. He also breaks down soft GDP growth, rising PCE inflation, weakness in housing, and what he sees as the widening gap between Trump's economic claims and the underlying data. Schiff's core thesis is that stagflation, war spending, and long-term dollar weakness remain strongly bullish for gold and silver, while the current selloff is creating another buying opportunity.

In this episode, Andrew shares his personal transformation—moving through trauma, addiction, and a deeply reactive identity shaped by his childhood and years working in the oil and gas industry. Through journaling, breath work, and hypnosis-based tools, he began rewiring old survival patterns and reclaiming his sense of choice and freedom.

Gold falls as war drives oil higher, but Peter Schiff says stagflation, deficits, and a weaker dollar are setting up gold's next major surge.Peter Schiff explains why the latest pullback in gold, silver, and mining stocks is not a sign that the bull market is over, but a temporary reaction to rising oil prices, higher bond yields, and a stronger dollar. He argues that markets are focusing too narrowly on delayed Fed rate cuts while missing the bigger picture: war-driven deficits, stubborn inflation, a weakening economy, and mounting pressure on the Federal Reserve to eventually monetize even more debt.He also breaks down soft GDP growth, rising PCE inflation, weakness in housing, and what he sees as the widening gap between Trump's economic claims and the underlying data. Schiff's core thesis is that stagflation, war spending, and long-term dollar weakness remain strongly bullish for gold and silver, while the current selloff is creating another buying opportunity.Chapters:00:00 Metals Pullback Buy Zone02:00 Stocks Oil Rates Dollar05:07 War Deficits Bullish Gold09:51 Inflation Reality Check17:10 Housing Bubble Warning22:54 Lies or Delusion24:18 Economic Boom Claims25:15 War Fallout and Stagflation33:07 Gold Silver Big Picture37:56 Buy the Dip and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffGet more gold & silver now: https://www.schiffgold.com1-888-GOLD-160 (465-3160)Open a T Gold account: https://www.tgold.comOpen a managed account: https://europac.comListen to The Peter Schiff Show: https://schiffradio.comFollow the main channel: https://youtube.com/peterschiff#Gold #OilPrices #InflationOur Sponsors:* Check out GhostBed: https://ghostbed.com/PETER* Check out Quince: https://quince.com/GOLD* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

GDP data released this week shows an economy that slowed to a crawl in the fourth quarter of 2025 as inflation picked up. That's not a good sign now that oil prices have nearly doubled this year and job cuts continue. We discuss what this data says about the economy and what we're going as investors. Travis Hoium, Lou Whiteman, and Jason Moser discuss: - Q4 2025 GDP data - Uber's autonomous momentum - Adobe's earnings - Executive free agents - Stocks on our radar Companies discussed: Alphabet (GOOG), Adobe (ADBE), Tesla (TSLA), Target (TGT), Costco (COST), Best Buy (BBY), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Boeing (BA), 3M (MMM), Netflix (NFLX), Globus Medical (GMED), Aerovironment (AVAV). Host: Travis Hoium Guests: Lou Whiteman, Jason Moser Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Senate passed a bipartisan bill yesterday that aims to take on housing affordability by increasing the housing supply and cutting red tape. But it has a tough road ahead in the House and possibly the White House. This morning, we'll dig in. Also on the show: GDP growth was revised down to just 0.7%. Plus, China's latest five-year plan aims to transform the country into a tech-driven global power, while boosting domestic demand.

Oil prices are surging as the conflict in Iran intensifies. To ease the pain at the pump, President Trump is tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Former Senior Economic Adviser Steve Moore joins The FOX Business Network's Gerri Willis to break down the administration's energy strategy and why he thinks we can see $2 gas in near future. Plus, the new GDP data showing a cooling U.S. economy.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/40tWZg8 David Bahnsen reviews an eventful mid-March 2026 market backdrop through five themes: the Iran war and its impact on oil and volatility; the state of the economy after tariff changes; private credit; AI; and a rotation in market leadership. He notes large daily market swings driven by uncertainty, but limited net movement, and argues volatility is largely immaterial for disciplined investors. The key economic risk is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as insurers and shippers avoid the waterway, lifting oil from the low 80s toward the 90s and potentially above 100, which would meaningfully compress consumer and investment activity if sustained. He sees evidence of economic drag (weaker GDP revisions, modest job growth) alongside tariff-driven goods inflation offsetting services disinflation. He criticizes conflating private-credit default fears with liquidity issues and stresses idiosyncratic underwriting, recovery rates, and coming opportunity. He attributes AI weakness to valuation and fatigue while warning against treating the theme as monolithic. He highlights a rotation toward energy, utilities, staples, and industrials. 00:00 Friday Dividend Cafe Intro 01:07 Five Big Market Themes 02:25 Iran War and Volatility 04:19 Oil Shock and Strait Risk 07:45 Economy After Tariffs 10:02 Private Credit Fears 12:40 AI Valuations and Fatigue 14:34 Market Rotation Winners 15:27 Chart of the Week and Wrap Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Senate passed a bipartisan bill yesterday that aims to take on housing affordability by increasing the housing supply and cutting red tape. But it has a tough road ahead in the House and possibly the White House. This morning, we'll dig in. Also on the show: GDP growth was revised down to just 0.7%. Plus, China's latest five-year plan aims to transform the country into a tech-driven global power, while boosting domestic demand.

A weak GDP estimate contributed to the declines. Plus: Meta shares slide after reports that it delayed releasing a new AI model. Katherine Sullivan hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

China has released a new five-year economic plan that projects GDP growth of around 4.5 percent in the coming year. That would be the country's slowest growth rate since its era of reforms began in the 1980s. Adam and Cameron dig in. Also on the show: The economics of St. Patrick's Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Mark and Marisa are joined once again by colleagues Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes to discuss the past week's developments in the Middle East and whether the forecast has changed as a result. Matt Colyar joins to review the week's release of inflation data, which show stickiness in inflation prior to the $40 jump in oil prices since the start of the year. After a review of weak reports on GDP, spending and confidence, Chris and Juan Pablo discuss how the jump in oil prices and the unprecedented supply shock will affect consumer spending and growth. The group posits their forecasts for how and when the conflict may end.  Guests: Matt Colyar, Chris Lafakis and Juan Pablo Fuentes For a deeper dive on AI and the macroeconomy, see our new paper, The Macroeconomic Consequences of Artificial Intelligence, where we model four potential economic paths over the next decade. We also walk through the scenarios in a companion webinar available now on-demand. Read the paper: https://www.economy.com/getfile?q=2B555C90-1118-4A49-BDAA-5C0A99F83A9E&app=download Watch the webinar: https://bit.ly/3OF6dn9 Email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com for more info about the Moody's Summit '26 Conference in San Diego Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at helpeconomy@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

As the IAEA predicts a global oil price shock worse than the 1970s, as the Iran war enters its second week the economic effects and implications now begin to deepen. Crude oil prices return to more than $100 barrel, with predictions by Golden Sachs could hit $200. What are the Trump responses so far? Why are they insufficient. What's the impact on US inflation from the Oil shock by sector? Jobs and GDP? Stock markets? Interest  rates? US dollar devaluation? Why focusing on just Supply as cause of oil prices is insufficient. What are the total causes of oil inflation? Finally, what are the respective war strategies of Trump, Israel, Iran?

Thailand's February 2026 snap election produced a result almost nobody predicted. The conservative Bhumjaithai Party, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and openly backed by the military and monarchy, won a commanding victory, defeating the reformist People's Party by over 70 seats. The once-dominant Shinawatra-linked Pheu Thai party collapsed to its worst showing ever. What happened?In this episode, Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, senior advisor for BowerGroupAsia and professor of international relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, breaks down how Thailand's political system works and why it seems to keep producing the same outcome lately. He explains the cycle of reform movements rising, winning elections, and then being dissolved by the courts or overthrown by military coups. After 13 coups and 20 constitutions in under a century, voter fatigue finally set in: turnout dropped to 65% and many young voters stayed home.Thitinan explores how the Thailand-Cambodia border conflict - the worst military clash between ASEAN member states in nearly 60 years - fueled nationalist sentiment that Bhumjaithai weaponized on the campaign trail. He also unpacks a striking contradiction: two-thirds of voters approved a referendum to rewrite the military-era constitution, yet handed power to the very establishment that wrote it.The conversation covers Thailand's economic challenges (92% household debt-to-GDP, stagnant growth, disruption from electric vehicles and AI), the transformation of the US-Thailand alliance from Cold War treaty to transactional trade relationship, and mainland Southeast Asia's growing "arc of instability" - from Myanmar's civil war to cross-border scam networks.Will the old guard finally deliver growth and stability, or is a reckoning on the horizon? Thitinan says the pressure is immense, and if the new government doesn't perform, the next wave of instability could be even bigger.

This week, we discuss the war in Iran and a run of discouraging economic data, including falling payrolls, rising inflation and a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP. The most dramatic market development was in oil. Prices surged to $120 per barrel early Monday before plunging to $90 by Monday afternoon, the largest decline on record. The fall followed comments from President Trump suggesting the conflict would soon end. Yet the administration later walked back those remarks, leaving oil trading near $100 by the end of the week. The turbulence in energy markets arrives at an awkward moment for the economy. Signs of stagflation appear to be intensifying. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, marking the third decline in the past five months. At the same time inflation remains stubborn. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, rose 0.4 percent month over month in January after a similar increase in December. With energy prices rising sharply in recent weeks, the March reading is likely to come in even higher. The growth picture is weakening as well. Fourth quarter GDP was revised down to 0.7 percent from an initial estimate of 1.4 percent, a revision that underscores the increasingly fragile state of the economy. Taken together, the combination of softer growth, falling employment, and persistent inflation may complicate the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates and tip the economy into recession.

Want to Learn about having "you're own" ITR Economist on your team?→ https://promotions.itreconomics.com/en-us/insights-from-itr-economics Don't miss our Executive Webinar on March 20th→ https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and what it means for the Federal Reserve's next move. With CPI and Core CPI still running above the Fed's target, inflation remains stubbornly persistent, raising new questions for businesses and consumers alike. Lauren also examines how rising geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in global oil supply could influence energy prices and consumer budgets. While the impact may be temporary, the combination of higher energy costs and growing electricity demand from AI and data centers could complicate the Fed's path toward rate cuts. What does this mean for inflation trends, business planning, and the likelihood of interest rate relief this year? Watch the full episode to understand the forces shaping the economic outlook and what to watch next. 00:02 – Inflation remains sticky: CPI and Core CPI update 00:42 – Middle East tensions and risks to global oil supply 02:12 – How higher energy prices impact consumers 03:25 – Why energy costs matter less than they used to 04:05 – AI, data centers, and rising electricity demand 04:45 – What sticky inflation means for Fed rate cuts 05:30 – Other economic data: GDP, housing, and labor market

Could AI transform our economies to produce explosive growth? Most economists are sceptical at best. Anton Korinek of the University of Virginia, leader of the CEPR research policy network on AI, thinks the threshold is closer than those models suggest.In his latest work, Korinek, Tom Davidson, Basil Halperin, and Thomas Houlden, have built a growth model that captures what happens when AI starts automating AI research itself. Automation does two things simultaneously: it accelerates research, and it offsets the diminishing returns that have historically stopped self-improving processes from compounding. Three reinforcing feedback loops: software quality, hardware quality, and general technological progress, each amplify the others. Korinek's findings are more optimistic than even the AI labs' own roadmaps, which focus on software capability alone. The research behind this episode:Davidson, Tom, Basil Halperin, Thomas Houlden, and Anton Korinek. 2026. "When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth? Feedback Loops in Innovation Networks." Working paper, January 2026.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, and Anton Korinek. 2026. "When Does Automating AI Research Produce Explosive Growth?" VoxTalks Economics (podcast). Assign this as extra listening. The citation above is formatted and ready for a reading list or VLE.About the guestsAnton Korinek is a professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He leads the CEPR Research Policy Network on AI, which is building a community of researchers to understand and anticipate the economic impact of artificial intelligence. He is a member of Anthropic's Economic Advisory Council and was named by Time magazine among the hundred most influential people in AI. His research spanning the economics of transformative AI, growth theory, and the implications of advanced automation for labor markets and inequality has made him one of the most widely cited economists working on these questions. He is also the founder of the Economics of Transformative AI initiative at the University of Virginia, which focuses on the long-run economic consequences of AI systems that approach or exceed human-level capabilities.Visit the CEPR Research Policy Network on AI.Research cited in this episodeDaron Acemoglu's estimate of AI's growth impact. Acemoglu calculated that AI would raise annual growth by approximately 0.07 percentage points, arriving at this figure by multiplying the share of jobs likely to be affected by AI, the fraction of tasks within those jobs that AI could perform, and the productivity gain per task. Korinek argues the estimate was a reasonable description of the AI that existed in 2024 but did not account for the trajectory of capabilities since, nor for the feedback loops between AI progress and further AI development that his own paper models.Recursive self-improvement. The idea that an AI system, once capable enough, could design improved versions of itself, triggering an accelerating cycle of capability gains. The concept was first articulated by John von Neumann in the 1950s and has since become central to debates about transformative AI. All major AI labs, Korinek notes, are working towards some version of this vision; the economic question is whether the resulting growth would be explosive or would be damped by diminishing returns.Semi-endogenous growth models. A class of economic growth models in which long-run growth depends on the scale of the research workforce and the returns to research effort. The canonical insight, associated most closely with Nicholas Bloom and co-authors, is that "ideas get harder to find"; maintaining a given rate of progress requires ever-increasing research investment. Korinek and co-authors use and extend this framework, showing that automation can counteract diminishing returns by replacing human labor with capital in the research process, creating a new feedback loop that was absent from earlier models.Kaldor's balanced growth facts. Nicholas Kaldor's observation, made in the mid-twentieth century, that the major macroeconomic aggregates, including the capital-output ratio, the labor share of income, and the rate of return to capital, remain roughly stable over long periods. Growth economists built their models, including the Solow and Ramsey models, to fit these regularities. Korinek notes that those models were appropriate precisely because they matched the historical data; the question his paper raises is whether the data of the next few decades will look different enough to require a different class of models.Moore's Law. The empirical regularity, observed in computing hardware since the 1960s, that the number of transistors on a chip approximately doubles every two years. Korinek uses chip progress as a calibration benchmark: maintaining that rate of doubling has historically required roughly an eight percent annual increase in the scientific workforce working on chips. This figure allows the model to be parameterised with a real-world measurement of how much additional research input is needed to sustain a given rate of technological progress.Consumer surplus from digital technologies. Korinek raises the problem that GDP statistics are designed to measure market transactions and therefore do not capture the value people derive from digital goods and services beyond what they pay for them. He references research from the Stanford Digital Economy Lab as an example of work attempting to quantify this surplus. The implication for the paper's argument is that explosive AI-driven growth could be underestimated even in the statistics used to monitor it.More VoxTalks Economics episodes"Our Workless Future", an earlier conversation with Anton Korinek from September 2022, in which he set out the case for taking AI's impact on labor markets seriously.Related reading on VoxEUFirms predict an AI productivity boom is coming, a survey of over 5,000 CFOs, CEOs, and executives shows that around 70% of firms actively use AI, particularly younger, more productive firms. They forecast AI will boost productivity by 1.4%, increase output by 0.8%, and cut employment by 0.7% over the next three years.How AI is affecting productivity and jobs in Europe, firm-level evidence on AI's effects in Europe. The authors find that AI adoption increases labour productivity levels by 4% on average in the EU, with no evidence of reduced employment in the short run.From AI investment to GDP growth: An ecosystem view, how the current AI wave is contributing to US GDP, both directly through investment and indirectly through ongoing service flows. 

As Donald Trump's war with Iran continues to spiral out of control, Washington has launched a massive propaganda blitz that is right out of Joseph Goebbels's propaganda playbook telling you that the war is one, all is well, we are living in a Golden Age of unprecedented peace and prosperity. Nothing could be further from the truth. Putin is making billions in oil sales, 6 more US soldiers were killed yesterday, and Iran is not even close to regime change or surrender.“Before the LORD: for he cometh, for he cometh to judge the earth: he shall judge the world with righteousness, and the people with his truth.” Psalm 96:13 (KJB)On this episode of the Prophecy News Podcast, take a look at the headlines and all of it ranges from bad, to worse, to I don't even want to think about it. Peter Theil is in Rome preaching about the coming Antichrist, GDP is down to just 0.7% while core inflation has risen to 3.1%, attacks on Jews in America are escalating, gas is at $4.00, Putin is making billions in Trump-approved oil sales, and just for fun, 2026 has 3 Friday the 13th's one of which is today. Do you know what happened on this exact day and date 6 years ago? Trump declared a national emergency with the COVID Pandemic. We told you 6 years ago all this was not going to end, and it hasn't. Now, if this was happening under Barack Obama, you'd know exactly what was going on, if this was happening under Joe Biden, you'd know exactly what was going on. But since it's happening under Donald Trump, you are confused and uncertain what you're looking at. Why is that? Did you suddenly lose all discernment because you'd rather have a Golden Age than the Pretrib Rapture? Ouch. Today we pull back the curtain on the greatest propaganda campaign since the Ministry of Propaganda and Enlightenment was created in WWII, and show you the truth of what our government is actually telling us. What you do with that information is up to you. If you are a Q-bot or a MAGA disciple, you might want to sit this one out.

With markets slightly higher in early Friday trading, Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola asks the question: "Are we able to hold these gains into the end of the day?" He says staying above $6800 is important for the S&P 500 (SPX). On the busier economic data day, Joe points to GDP expectations getting halved as well as the latest personal income numbers. Joe believes market breadth overall is starting to fade a bit, with software "carrying the mantle" in recent trading as it rebounds from earlier selling pressures. He is watching implied volatility versus realized volatility and the "churn" taking place underneath the latest market moves. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Better than expected JOLTS data and an "unsurprising" Consumer Sentiment report kick off Kevin Green's coverage on Morning Trade Live. He discusses how it all factors into the inflation picture facing investors on the heels of the latest GDP and PCE numbers also released on Friday. KG looks at the Strait of Hormuz as nations attempt to negotiate safe passage through the embattled oil shipping lane. KG stresses that oil volatility will continue to be the biggest market driver and later he adds thoughts on what traders need to pay attention to heading into the weekend. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Erik Lundh gauges today's economic data, including GDP, and how the conflict in Iran could affect future prints. “It's hard to know” whether to reprice growth expectations yet, “all we really have in this environment are question marks.” He shares his outlook for energy costs and the potential economic fallout of sustained high prices. He's concerned about the U.S. consumer “to a certain extent” as debt and delinquencies rise.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Friday was a busy day for economic data, including PCE and GDP reports. Joy Yang breaks down the latest numbers and reacts to geopolitical pressures on the market. She argues that the Iran conflict will likely not be over soon, which will continue to push oil prices up and impact investor sentiment. She thinks investors are staying on the sidelines, but notes that historically, markets tend to “absorb these types of shocks.” Joy looks abroad for opportunities, staying away from U.S. equities.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

＜ヘッドライン＞イランのイスラム教聖職者「専門家会議」、米イスラエルの空爆で殺害された最高指導者アリー・ハメネイ師の後任に反米保守派の次男モジタバ・ハメネイ師を選出　イラン革命防衛隊報道官「当面の間、地域からの原油輸出は1リットルさえ認めない」　湾岸諸国の原油設備を攻撃、ホルムズ海峡を事実上封鎖／イランのホルムズ海峡封鎖で原油相場が急騰、ガソリンが大幅値上がり　IEA加盟国、過去最大規模4億バレルの石油備蓄協調放出で合意　高市総理大臣「石油の民間備蓄15日分と国家備蓄1ヶ月分を放出」「ガソリンの小売価格を全国平均1リットル170円程度に抑制し軽油や重油、灯油などにも措置を講じる」／トランプ米大統領「イランには事実上、攻撃対象にするものは何も残っていない」「軍事作戦はもうすぐ終わる」　原油価格高騰が物価高に跳ね返るのを抑え込もうと口先介入　対ロ経済制裁緩和の禁じ手にも踏み込む構え／米トランプ政権、日本・中国・EUなど16の国・地域を対象に「通商法301条」に基づく調査を開始　「過剰生産能力」の実態調べ、結果次第で制裁関税・輸出規制などの対抗措置／中国・全人代、「第15次5カ年計画」採択し閉幕　「35年の1人当たりGDPを20年比倍増」「ハイテク産業で米国に頼らないサプライチェーン構築」／米2月雇用統計、非農業部門就業者数が前月比マイナス9万2000人と市場予想から大きく乖離してマイナス　米2月消費者物価指数、市場予想と一致するもFRBがより重視する個人消費支出物価指数の上昇示唆　雇用不安とインフレ懸念の高まりへのFOMC＝の判断に注目／公取委、27年春にも荷物の受け手企業が運送会社のトラックに無償で待機強いることを独禁法違反の対象に　待たせた場合には送り主に対価を支払うよう求める、荷物の無償積み下ろしも禁止　違反企業に排除措置命令の行政処分／経営厳しいFMラジオ業界、一部の中継局の廃止・停波と配信アプリ「ラジコ」で代替求める　採算取りづらい過疎地などの放送インフラの維持コストを抑える狙い　災害時の放送・スマホ操作に不慣れな高齢者らへの対応が課題　24年度はFM単営局50社中23社が赤字 ＜ポイント＞　（１） イランの「徹底抗戦」と原油相場の行方（２） 焦るトランプと3/19日米首脳会談の課題（３） 日米欧中銀の政策決定会合について ＜ここ／これを見てきた＞ワールド・ベースボール・クラシック

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Futuros en verde antes de una mañana cargada de datos: PCE y GDP como los catalizadores principales para tasas y expectativas de la Fed. Core PCE esperado en 3.1% anual vs 3.0% previo: inflación aún “pegajosa” y menos espacio para recortes pronto; hoy también sale JOLTS como termómetro del empleo. $ADBE cae fuerte por anuncio de salida del CEO pese a buenos resultados; $META baja tras reporte de que su modelo “Avocado” se retrasa y no iguala a rivales.

Advisors on This Week's Show Kyle Tetting Dave Sandstrom John Sandstrom (with Max Hoelzl, Joel Dresang, engineered by Jason Scuglik) Week in Review (March 9-13, 2026) Significant Economic Indicators & Reports Monday No major announcements Tuesday The National Association of Realtors said the pace of existing home sales rose 1.7% in February, though it was still behind the year-ago rate and around the lowest in more than 30 years. The trade group called demand “muted” as lower mortgage rates and rising wages combined to make housing more affordable than it has been since March 2022. The median sales price rose to $398,000, up 0.3% from February 2025, the 32nd consecutive increase. Wednesday The broadest measure of inflation stayed steady in February. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% from February 2025, unadjusted for seasonality. That was the same rate as January and still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%. Shelter costs led the monthly uptick. Gas prices rose for the first time in three months — prior to subsequent spikes spurred by the Iran war. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, was up 2.5% from the year before, also the same rate as January. Thursday The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 25% in January to $54.5 billion. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said exports rose 5.5% from December, led by non-monetary gold and other precious metals, as well as computers and civilian aircraft. Imports shrank 0.7%, led by pharmaceuticals and automobiles. Since January 2025, the trade gap contracted by almost 58% as exports expanded 10% and imports fell 11%. The four-week moving average for initial unemployment claims fell for the third time in four weeks, suggesting employers continue to be reluctant to let workers leave. According to data from the Labor Department, the four-week number was 41% below the 59-year average. More than 2.2 million individuals were receiving jobless benefits in the latest week, up 3.5% from the week before and down less than 1% from the year before. The Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits in January continued to track below their pre-COVID levels. Although the annual pace of housing starts rose 7% from December and 9.5% from January 2025, it has been below the pre-pandemic level for nearly two years. Building permits fell both from the month before and the year before. Meanwhile, the pace of houses under construction fell again, sinking 26% below their record pace in late 2022. Friday The U.S. economy grew slower than previously estimated at the end of 2025. The gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1.7% in the fourth quarter, down from a preliminary report of 2.4% and below the 4.4% pace in the third quarter. The Bureau of Economic Analysis blamed the downward revision on weaker consumer spending and private investments and greater declines in government spending and exports. Adjusted for Inflation, GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, the weakest since a 2.1% decline in 2020. In a possible sign of consumer restraint, personal spending fell slightly behind the pace of personal income in January, raising the personal savings rate to its highest level in six months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a savings rate of 4.5% of disposable income, which has been below the pre-pandemic level of 7.5% for more than four years. The same report showed the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation staying above its long-range target of 2%. The personal consumption expenditure index was up 2.8% from the year before, vs. 2.9% in December. The last time it was below 2% was February 2021. Durable goods orders were unchanged in January as a plunge in demand for commercial aircraft offset scattered gains elsewhere. The Commerce Department reported that orders overall ran 9% higher than the year before. Excluding volatile transportation orders, demand rose 0.4% from the month before and was up 4.4% from January 2025. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investments, were unchanged for the month and up 2.9% from the year before. U.S. employers posted 6.9 million job openings in January, up marginally from December but below the pre-COVID level for the third month in a row. Postings were down 43% from their peak nearly five years ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. Based on openings and unemployed job seekers, the supply of available labor has outpaced demand since July. That’s after more than four years of the balance favoring workers. The number and rate of workers voluntarily quitting – an indication of worker confidence – stayed below pre-pandemic levels for the 25th month in a row. The University of Michigan said consumer sentiment reversed course following the onset of war in Iran. Polling done before Feb. 28 showed improvements in consumer outlooks, the university said, but opinions plunged thereafter regardless of respondents’ incomes, ages or political affiliations. Overall, consumers had lower expectations for their personal finances and higher forecasts for inflation. Market Closings for the Week Nasdaq – 22105, down 282 points or 1.3% S&P 500 – 6632, down 108 points or 1.6% Dow Jones Industrial Average – 46560, down 942 points or 2.0% 10-year U.S. Treasury Note – 4.29%, up 0.15 point

Oil prices are surging as the conflict in Iran intensifies. To ease the pain at the pump, President Trump is tapping into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Former Senior Economic Adviser Steve Moore joins The FOX Business Network's Gerri Willis to break down the administration's energy strategy and why he thinks we can see $2 gas in near future. Plus, the new GDP data showing a cooling U.S. economy.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Stagflation — the dreaded economic word from the 1970s — may be making a comeback. With slowing GDP growth and persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve is caught between cutting rates and controlling rising prices. Chris discusses what the latest economic data means, why everyday costs are still surging, and why owning real assets may be the only way to protect your purchasing power.

US has issued a new Russia-related general license permitting the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products loaded on vessels as of March 12.ByteDance reportedly plans to tap NVIDIA (NVDA) Blackwell processors that are barred for export to China, with the Co. working with Aolani Cloud on plans to use some 500 Blackwell computing systems in Malaysia, according to WSJ.European equities soften, BESI NA surges on takeover rumours; US equity futures muted ahead of PCE, GDP.DXY extends above the 100 handle, GBP slips post-GDP.Fixed income choppy and energy prices and risk tone continue to dictate price action.Brent hovers around USD 100/bbl and metals dragged by a firmer dollar. Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Feb), US Core PCE Price Index (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan), Personal Spending (Jan), JOLTS (Jan), University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prelim. (Mar), Atlanta Fed GDP. Rating updates include Scope Ratings on UK & Spain, S&P on Spain, Moody's on Greece & Germany, Fitch on Spain & Italy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

As India's revised GDP numbers are released with a new base year of 2022–23, Monika unpacks the deeper story hidden beneath the headline growth print. She explains how the economy continues to grow at a stable rate above 7%, driven on the production side by manufacturing and services, and supported on the expenditure side by household savings and government capital expenditure. While consumption remains the backbone of growth, private investment needs to accelerate to complete the virtuous cycle of rising wages, stronger demand, and sustained high growth.Monika walks listeners through why this GDP release is structurally significant. The updated methodology incorporates new surveys, GST data, digital public finance systems, and expanded data sources to better reflect today's economy. A major shift to “double deflation” in manufacturing aims to measure real growth more accurately by adjusting both input and output prices. She also addresses the recurring debate on data credibility, distinguishing between methodological improvements and allegations of manipulation, and explains why large-scale tampering across multiple data systems is implausible. The takeaway: the data suggests steady, resilient growth — not spectacular, but meaningful in a turbulent global year.In listener queries, Devasri Jegan, a recent BBA graduate, asks how to overcome beginner confusion and where to start investing; Arpita Mondal writes in about rising silver prices and whether she should invest after sharp moves; Vineet Sharma from the Gulf shares his journey of building a ₹4 crore FD corpus through discipline and leverage and seeks guidance on starting mutual fund investing at 48 while redefining life goals; and Saurabh Garg's recent speech on GDP methodology also comes up in the broader discussion on interpreting official data.Chapters:(00:00 – 00:00) What the New GDP Data Reveals About India's Growth Story(00:00 – 00:00) Base Year Changes, Double Deflation and Can We Trust the Data?(00:00 – 00:00) Starting Your Investment Journey Without Getting Overwhelmed(00:00 – 00:00) Silver Prices, Commodity Hype and Asset Allocation Discipline(00:00 – 00:00) Starting Mutual Funds at 50 After Building Wealth Through FDsSaurabh Garg speechhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n71JFcBoDQ&t=728s PIB releasehttps://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=2233518®=3&lang=2 If you have financial questions that you'd like answers for, please email us at ⁠mailme@monikahalan.com⁠ Monika's book on basic money management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-money-english/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Monika's book on mutual funds⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-mutual-funds/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Monika's workbook on recording your financial life⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.monikahalan.com/lets-talk-legacy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Calculators⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://investor.sebi.gov.in/calculators/index.html⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠You can find Monika on her social media @monikahalan. Twitter ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MonikaHalan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Production House: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.inoutcreatives.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Production Assistant:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Anshika Gogoi⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Our analysts Andrew Sheets and Martijn Rats discuss why a prolonged disruption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz would be unprecedented—and nearly impossible for the market to absorb.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today on the program we're going to talk about why investors everywhere are tracking ships through the Strait of Hormuz.It's Wednesday, March 11th at 2pm in London.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the oil market, which is often volatile, has been historically volatile over the last couple of weeks following renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran.Now, there are a lot of different angles to this, but the oil market is really at the center of the market's focus on this conflict. And so, I think before we get into the specifics, I think it's helpful to set some context. How big is the global oil market and where does the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz fit within that global picture?Martijn Rats: Yeah, so the global oil consumption is a little bit more than a 100 million barrels a day. But that splits in two parts. There is a pipeline market and there is a seaborne market. And when it comes to prices, the seaborne market is really where it's at. If you're sitting in China, you're buying oil from the Middle East, all of a sudden, it's not available. Sure, if there is a pipeline that goes from Canada into the United States, that doesn't really help you all that much.Andrew Sheets: So, it's the oil on the ships that really matters.Martijn Rats: It's the oil on ships that is the flexible part of the market that we can redirect to where the oil is needed. And that is also the market where prices are formed. The seaborne market is in the order of 60 million barrels a day. So, only a subset of the 100 [million]. Now relative to that 60 million barrel a day, the Strait of Hormuz flows about 20 [million]. So, the Strait of Hormuz is responsible for about a third of seaborne supply, which is, of course, very large and therefore, you know, very critical to the system.Andrew Sheets: And I think an important thing we should also discuss here, which we were just discussing earlier today on another call, is – this is a market that could be quite sensitive to actually quite small disruptions in oil. So, can you give just some sense of sensitivity? I mean, in normal times, what sort of disruptions, in terms of barrels of oil, kind of, move markets; get investors' attention?Martijn Rats: Yeah, look, this is part of why this situation is so unusual, and oil analysts really sort of struggle with this. Look normally, at relative to the 100 million barrels a day of consumption, we care about supply demand imbalances of a couple of 100,000 barrels a day. That becomes interesting.If that, increases to say 1 million barrel a day, over- or undersupplied, you can expect prices to move. You can expect them to move by meaningful amounts. We can write research; the clients can trade. You have a tradable idea in front of you. When that becomes 2 to 3 million barrels a day, either side, you have major historical market moving events.So, in [20]08-09, oil famously fell from over 100 [million] down to something like 30 [million], on the basis that the oil market was 2-2.5 million barrel day oversupplied for two quarters. In 2022, we all thought – this actually never happened, but we all thought that Russia was going to lose about 3 million barrel day of supply. And on that basis, just on the basis of the expectation alone, Brent went to $130 per barrel. So, 2-3 [million] either side you have historically large moves. Now we're talking about 20 [million].Andrew Sheets: And I think that's what's so striking. I mean, again, I think investors, people listening to this, they can do that arithmetic too. If this is a market where 2 to 3 million barrels a day have caused some of the largest moves that we've seen in history, something that's 20 [million] is exceptional. And I think it's also fair to say this type of closure of the Strait [of Hormuz] is something we haven't seen before.Martijn Rats: No, which also made it very hard to forecast, by the way. Because the historical track records did not point in that direction, and yet here we are. The historical track record – look, you can look at other major disruptions historically.The largest disruption in the history of the oil market is the Suez Crisis in the mid-1950s that took away about 10 percent of global oil consumption. This is easily double that. So really unusual. If you look at supply and demand shocks of this order of magnitude, you can think about COVID. In April 2020, for one month, at the peak of COVID, when we're all sitting at home. Nobody driving, nobody flying. Yeah, we lost very briefly 20 million barrels a day of demand. Now we're losing 20 million barrels a day of supply. So, look, the sign is flipped, but it's in the same order of magnitude. And yeah, these are unusual events that you wouldn't actually, sort of, forecast them that easily. But that is what is in front of us at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So, I think the next kind of logical question is if shipping remains disrupted, and I'd love for you to talk a little bit about, you know, you're sitting there with satellite maps on your screen tracking shipping, which is – a development. But, you know, what are the options that are available in the region, maybe globally to temporarily balance this supply and create some offset?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, like of course when we have a big disruption like this one, of course the market is going to try to solve for this. There are a few blocks that we can work with. I'll run you through them one by one, including some of the numbers. But very quickly you arrive at the conclusion that this is; this puzzle – we can't really solve it.Like in 2022, the market was very stressed. We thought Russia was going to lose 3 million barrels a day of supply, but we could move things around in our supply demand model. Russia oil goes to China and India. Oil that they buy, we can get in Europe, we can move stuff around to kind of sort of solve a puzzle.This puzzle is very, very difficult to solve. So, through the Strait of Hormuz, 15 million barrels a day have crude, 5 million barrels a day of refined product, 20 million barrels a day in total. What can we do?Well, the biggest offset, is arguably the Saudi EastWest pipeline. Saudi Arabia has a pipeline that effectively allows it to ship oil to the Red Sea at the Port of Yanbu, where it can be evacuated on tankers there. That pipeline has a capacity of 7 million barrels a day. We think it was probably already flowing at something like 3 million barrels a day. So, there's probably an incremental 4 [million] that can become available through that. That's the biggest block, that we can see of workaround capacity, so to say.After that the numbers do get smaller. The UAE has a pipeline that goes through Fujairah that's also beyond the Strait of Hormuz. We think there is maybe 0.5 million barrel a day of capacity there. Then you're basically, sort of, done within the region, and you have to look globally for other sources of oil.If there are sanctions relief, maybe on Russian oil, you can find a 0.5 million barrel day there. Here, there and everywhere. 100,000 barrels a day, 200,000 barrels a day. But the numbers get…Andrew Sheets: It's still not… So, if you kind of put all of those, you know, kind of, almost in a best-case scenario relative to the 20 million that's getting disrupted.Martijn Rats: If you add another one or two from a massive SPR release, the fastest release from SPR…Andrew Sheets: That's the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.Martijn Rats: Yeah, exactly. Earlier today, we got an announcement, that the IEA is proposing to release 400 million barrels from Strategic Reserve across its member countries. That is a very large number. But – and that is important. But more important is how fast can it flow because the extraction rate from these tanks is not infinite. The fastest ever rate of SPR release is only 1.3 million barrels a day. Now, maybe the circumstances are so extraordinary, we can do better than that and we can get it to 2 [million]. But beyond that, you're really in very, very uncharted territory.So maybe in the region, work around sanctions relief, SPR release, we can probably find like 7 million barrels a day out of a problem that is 20 [million]. You're left with another 13 [million]. The 13 [million] is four times what we thought Russia would lose. So, you're left with this conclusion: Look, this really needs to come to an end.Andrew Sheets: And the other rebalancing mechanism, which again, you know, when we come back to markets and forecasting, this is obviously price. And, you know, you talk about this idea of demand destruction, which I think we could paraphrase as – the price is higher so people use less of it and then you can rebalance the market that way.But give us just a little sense of, you know, as you and your team are sitting there modeling, how do you think about, kind of, the price of oil? Where it would need to go to – to potentially rebalance this the other way.Martijn Rats: Yeah, that price is very high. So, what it's a[n] really interesting analysis to do is to look at the historical frequency distribution of inflation adjusted oil prices.You take 20 years of oil prices. You convert it all in money of the day, adjusted for inflation, and then simply plot the frequency distribution. What you get is not one single bell curve centered around the middle with some variation around the midpoint. You get, sort of, two partially overlapping bell curves.There is a slightly larger one, which is, sort of, the normal regime. Lower prices, 60, 70, 80 bucks. There's a lot of density there in the frequency distribution, that's where we are normally. What's interesting is that actually, if you go from there to higher prices, there are prices that are actually very rare in inflation adjusted terms.Like a [$] 100-110. In nominal terms, we might feel that that has happened. In inflation adjusted terms, these prices are extremely rare. They are way rarer than prices that live even further to the right. [$]130, 140.The oil market has this other regime of these very high prices. If you go back in history, when did those prices prevail? They always prevailed in periods where we asked the same question. What is the demand destruction price? And yeah, to erode demand by a somewhat meaningful quantity, yeah, you end up in that regime. These very high prices, like [$]130. And it's… It's not a gradual scale. You sort of at one point shoot through these levels and that's where you then end up.Andrew Sheets: It's quite, quite serious stuff.Martijn Rats: Well, yeah. Also, because we can casually say in the oil market, ‘Oh, demand erosion has to be the answer.' But we don't erode demand in isolation. Like, you know, diesel is trucking. Yeah, jet is flying. NAFTA is petrochemicals.Andrew Sheets: These are real core parts of economic activity.Martijn Rats: It's all GDP.Andrew Sheets: So maybe Martijn, in conclusion, let me give you a slightly different scenario. Let's say that the conflict goes on for another couple of weeks, but then there is a resolution. Traffic goes back to normal. Walk us through a little bit of what that would mean. You know, kind of how long does it take to get back to normal in a market like this?Martijn Rats: Yeah. So, if you say, weeks, I would say that is an uncomfortable period of time actually.Andrew Sheets: Feel free to use a slightly different scenario.Martijn Rats: If you say days. Let's say next week something happens, the whole thing comes soon to end. Look, then we will have logistical supply chain issues. But look, we can work through that.There is at the moment somewhat of an air pocket in the global oil supply chain. There should be oil tankers on their way to refineries for arrival in April and May that currently are not. So, we will have hiccups and things need to be rerouted and we draw on some inventories here or there, but… And that will keep commodity prices tense, I would imagine. The equity market will probably look through it.We'll have a month or six weeks, not more than two months, I would imagine of logistical issues to sort out. Look, of course, if that, you know, doesn't happen, then we're back in the scenario that we discussed. But yeah, look, that that's equally true. If it's short, we can sort of live with a disruption.Andrew Sheets: It's fair to say that this is a situation where days really matter, where weeks make a big difference.Martijn Rats: Oh, totally. Look, the oil industry has built in various, sort of, compensatory measures, I think. You know, inventories along the supply chains. But nothing of the scale that can work with this. I mean, this is truly yet another order of magnitude.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, thank you for taking the time to talk.Martijn Rats: My pleasure.Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.Important note regarding economic sanctions. This report references jurisdictions which may be the subject of economic sanctions. Readers are solely responsible for ensuring that their investment activities are carried out in compliance with applicable laws.

In this week's live Q&A, John Dominic Crossan takes questions from over 2,000 students in the Lenten class — and the questions are so good that even Dom says so (which, if you know Dom, is not nothing). The conversation moves fast: from the commons and enclosure as the operating logic of empire, to why Antipas moved his capital to a mosquito-infested lakeside city, to the first-century fishing boat built from twelve types of recycled wood as a symbol of economic squeeze, to why the multiplication of the loaves and fish is not just a miracle story but an act of interference in Antipas's export economy, to the difference between traction and distraction in political movements, to whether Christian theology has any business celebrating GDP growth when the boom doesn't boom for the people at the bottom. Crossan also takes on demons as imperial oppression embodied, Jesus as a healer who makes house calls and never sets up a shrine, and the Hagia Sophia mosaic where John says I am the light of the world and Matthew says you are — and why that single-word difference is the whole theology of participation in one sentence. If you haven't watched the lecture yet, do that first. If you have, this is where it gets applied. To join the class and get access to all four visual lectures, head to CrossanClass.com. ⁠You can WATCH the conversation on YouTube⁠ ⁠ONLINE LENT CLASS: Jesus in Galilee w/ John Dominic Crossan⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ What can we actually know about Jesus of Nazareth? And, what difference does it make? ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠This Lenten class ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠begins where all of Dr. John Dominic Crossan's has work begins: with history. Only by understanding what Jesus' parables meant then can we wrestle with what they might demand of us now. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The class is donation-based, including 0, so join, get info, and join up here.⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ John Dominic Crossan, professor emeritus at DePaul University, is widely regarded as the foremost historical Jesus scholar of our time. He is the author of several bestselling books, including The Historical Jesus, How to Read the Bible and Still Be a Christian, God and Empire, Jesus: A Revolutionary Biography, The Greatest Prayer, The Last Week, and The Power of Parable. He lives in Minneola, Florida. Previous Podcast Episodes with Dom & Tripp Are We Waiting for God, or Is God Waiting for Us?⁠⁠⁠ A Tale of Two Gods: Why C.S. Lewis's Famous Argument Falls Apart⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠From Iron Swords to Nuclear Bombs: Tracing 3,000 Years of Escalatory Violence⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul, Christ, & the Mystery of Execution & Resurrection⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul, Josephus, & the Challenge of Nonviolent Resistance⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul, Rome, & the Violent Normalcy of Civilization⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul & the Fictional History of Luke-Acts⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Paul & Thecla⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠Ask JC Anything⁠⁠⁠ This podcast is a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Homebrewed Christianity ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠production. Follow ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠the Homebrewed Christianity⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Theology Nerd Throwdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, & ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Rise of Bonhoeffer⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ podcasts for more theological goodness for your earbuds. Join over 75,000 other people by joining our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Substack - Process This!⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Get instant access to over 50 classes at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.TheologyClass.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow the podcast, drop a review⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, send ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠feedback/questions⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ or become a ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠member of the HBC Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Kerry Lutz and Jim Welsh discuss how sustained high oil prices could impact the global economy, noting that the duration of elevated prices matters far more than short-term spikes. They examine recent market reactions to oil moves, regional supply risks such as Qatar's natural gas force majeure, and why stronger U.S. production today may provide more economic insulation than during the 2008 energy shock. The conversation also places current energy prices in historical context, explaining why a true 1970s-style crisis would require dramatically higher oil prices. They then turn to precious metals, where Jim outlines gold's recent parabolic rally and sharp correction. While the pullback may continue in the short term, he believes it could ultimately set the stage for the next leg higher in the longer-term bull market. The discussion closes with a look at AI and market structure risks. Massive hyperscale spending on artificial intelligence is expected to boost GDP this year, but it may also distort market psychology and push equity valuations higher than fundamentals justify. At the same time, that spending could reduce corporate buybacks as companies redirect cash flow toward AI infrastructure. With technical cracks appearing in the S&P, the group notes that downside risks for equities may be building. Find Jim here: https://www.macrotides.com/ Find Kerry here :https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    Kerry's New Book "The Armstrong Economic Code: The 5 Truths Investors Must Never Forget" is out now on Amazon!  Get your copy here:   https://a.co/d/bvYbZOz  "The World According to Martin Armstrong – Conversations with the Master Forecaster" is a #1 Best Seller on Amazon. . Get your copy here: https://amzn.to/4kuC5p5  

"The next step for governments will be to confiscate gold," warns David Garofalo, the powerhouse CEO of Gold Royalty Corp. In this interview with Daniela Cambone, he delivers a stark warning about the future of fiat currency and the inevitable return to a gold-backed monetary system. Garofalo argues that the explosive growth of U.S. debt to 350% of GDP has set the stage for a global monetary reset, positioning gold not merely as a commodity, but as the ultimate monetary instrument. "It's like that saying about bankruptcy," he explains. "It happens gradually, then suddenly. That will be what happens with the confidence in our underlying fiat currencies. It will be a light switch that goes off."

In this episode of Gimme Some Truth, we dive deep into the rapidly evolving situation in Iran and its immediate effects on global markets and the economy. Geopolitical events move fast, and while the instinct may be to react, history tells a much more nuanced story about market resilience.We break down the central role of oil prices, the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, and why the U.S. economy's shift toward being an energy exporter changes the math on GDP drag compared to decades past.In this video, we discuss:- Historical Precedents: How markets recovered after the Gulf War, 9/11, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.- Safe Haven Assets: Why gold, U.S. Treasuries, and the Dollar behave the way they do during uncertainty.- Sector Winners/Losers: A look at defense-related stocks, value stocks, and the potential for an AI value rotation.- The Power of Diversification: Why avoiding recency bias and sticking to a long-term plan is your best defense against volatility.Protect your portfolio from emotional decision-making. Watch until the end to hear our outlook on the "Soft Landing" and why leaning on professional advice is critical during times of war.

Bill Smead, manager of the Smead Value fund, says that by nearly every indicator, the stock market is at valuation levels seldom seen in American history, with the Standard & Poor's 500 trading "at more than 220% of GDP, the most dangerous number, virtually, we have ever seen." That does not make him want to get out of the market, however, as he says in the Market Call that "the problem everybody's got is that most of the money is in the place that is likely to do the poorest over the next 10 years, because it has done the best the last 15 years, and that is our opportunity."    Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says that investors have good reason to be skittish right now because the market has dropped off of highs, but he doesn't expect things to get really bad so that further market drops are an opportunity to dig in and make tactical purchases. In The Big Interview, Cofrancesco talks about his concerns about inflation — which he calls "an insidious tax on the working class and the poor" — noting that if it stays higher for longer it can change retirement-spending trajectories that investors need to plan for.    Jennifer White, senior director, banking and payments intelligence at JD Power,  discusses the firm's recent report showing that the financial health of American consumers has reached a 12-month low. She notes that the firm is classifying more consumers as financially unhealthy, in large part due to the stubbornly high cost of consumer goods, noting that current events which could create a spike in oil prices and which threaten more inflation weren't yet factored into the numbers, making the outlook for consumers that much more troubling.

Kent Smetters, Faculty Director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model and Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the Wharton School, breaks down the projected budgetary costs of conflict with Iran, estimates potential GDP losses driven by higher oil prices, and explains how supply shocks could influence inflation and Federal Reserve decision-making. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brian Szytel from Dividend Cafe (Tuesday, March 10) recaps a mixed market day that started higher on optimism from comments that the war would end soon, then faded to flat after reports of Iran laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz amid intensified Middle East conflict. He notes modest economic releases: the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index at 98.8 (near historical average) and February existing home sales above expectations at over 4 million, suggesting some housing thaw as rates ease. He explains the Strait's global importance (about 20% of oil/LNG and 30% of helium) and estimates a ~0.4% GDP impact if disruptions persist, contributing to higher long rates and a steepening yield curve. He advises against timing volatility and discusses defense contractors, emphasizing fundamentals and the ability of large firms to develop or acquire new technologies. 00:00 Market Open And Headlines 00:48 Economic Data Check In 01:27 Strait Of Hormuz Stakes 02:18 Rates And Yield Curve 02:51 Staying Invested Through Volatility 03:19 Defense Stocks And Cheap Weapons 04:50 How We Invest In Defense 05:16 Wrap Up And Q And A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

This week's Frankly is another edition of Nate's Wide Boundary News series, where he invites listeners to view the constant churn of headlines through a wider-boundary lens. In this installment, Nate addresses the U.S. and Israeli military offensive against Iran and traces the reverberating effects that extend far beyond the conflict itself, starting with what the closure of the Strait of Hormuz means for a civilization that routes a massive share of its physical economy through a single maritime corridor. Nate begins with the core misperception that oil registers as roughly 3% of GDP by cost, when in reality it underpins 100% of economic activity. Building off of that, he outlines a series of second- and third-order effects that rarely appear in headline coverage, including hidden dependencies on sulfur, liquefied natural gas, and nitrogen fertilizer that connect the Strait of Hormuz to mining operations, European energy security, and global food systems. He also explains the stock-and-flow imbalance between expensive missile interceptors and cheap drone warfare, and the difficult choices facing aging Middle Eastern oil fields if production is forced to shut in. Finally, Nate considers the religious narratives on all three sides of the conflict, where Christian, Jewish, and Shia Islamic end-times frameworks each cast the war as prophetic fulfillment, short-circuiting the feedback loops that normally slow escalation. What does the exposure of a single shipping corridor reveal about the deep energy dependencies of modern civilization? How might the second- and third-order effects of this conflict, from fertilizer to metals to food prices, reshape the global economy in ways that outlast the war itself? And when all parties in a conflict believe they are fulfilling divine prophecy, where do the off-ramps for de-escalation appear? (Recorded March 9th, 2026)   Show Notes and More   Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future   Join our Substack newsletter   Join our Hylo channel and connect with other listeners

川普下令狙殺伊朗最高領袖哈米尼，引爆中東戰火，《經濟學人》最新封面故事批評這對美國而言是一場「沒有戰略的戰爭」，不僅在政治上會造成戰線擴大，甚至迫使周邊多國與北約捲入，經濟上也會導致通膨與經濟風暴，尤其是全球能源命脈受阻，油價狂飆恐重創GDP，伊朗內部分裂危機，更恐將引發區域大地震，文中呼籲美國應盡速縮小戰爭目標。 【聽完這集你會知道】 02:15｜川普「無戰略戰爭」的三大全球危機：美國狙殺伊朗領袖缺乏明確戰略恐引發嚴重外溢效應：戰火波及北約、油價飆破百元推升通膨，以及伊朗內部分裂導致的地緣政治動盪。 14:00｜AI 失控倒數？五角大廈與企業的角力：知名 AI 公司 Anthropic 擔憂技術淪為監控與自動化武器，與國防部爆發合約爭議 。若政府持續忽視安全護欄，恐提早引發人工智慧災難 。 16:40｜中國 2026 經濟目標為何被批「太低？：中國將 GDP 成長目標設於 4.5% 至 5%，遭批缺乏野心 。過低的目標將限制刺激政策，恐讓經濟深陷連續四年的通縮與青年高失業率泥淖 。 主持人：天下雜誌資深主筆 黃亦筠 主講人：金庫資本管理合夥人兼總經理 丁學文 製作團隊：張雅媛、莊志偉、邱宇豪 ＊延伸閱讀｜衝突升級　為什麼對伊朗有利？：https://www.cw.com.tw/article/5140058 ＊立即下載天下App：https://mkt.cw.com.tw/applink/cwapp.html?source=podcast ＊訂閱天下全閱讀：https://bit.ly/3STpEpV ＊意見信箱：bill@cw.com.tw -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

Claude wrote these. I did not. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack are back for Episode 147, recorded on 5 March 2026. It's a massive week of news — a record Kiwi exodus to Australia, a leaked Liberal Party post-mortem, the Star Casino legal fallout, a landmark war in Iran, and a bumper AFL season preview. Settle in.Record Kiwi Migration & Trans-Tasman Economics[00:00:41]The BBC reports New Zealand citizens are leaving at record levels — over 60,000 departed in a single year, the equivalent of 180 people per day. Former PM Jacinda Ardern has joined the exodus, reportedly house-hunting on Sydney's northern beaches. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack debate the merits of the northern beaches vs. the eastern suburbs, and the real net migration figures behind the headlines.Net migration loss from NZ: over 30,000 in 2024 to Australia aloneLong-term departures hit 101,932 in 2023 — remarkable for a nation of 5.3 millionNZ GDP per capita: USD 49,000 vs. Australia's USD 69,000New Zealand has been in negative GDP growth since December 2024, but is forecasting ~4% growth in the next financial yearAustralia has maintained consistent positive GDP growth post-COVID (0.8%–2.5% p.a.)The two countries are described as being at opposite ends of the economic cycleBrief discussion on Jacinda Ardern's post-Harvard career options and what Julia Gillard's post-PM trajectory looks like by comparison

香港以380%的負債對GDP比例登上全球第一，比排第二的日本和排第三的新加坡，香港總負債高有其獨特的原因，尤其是企業負債 227% 更是國際金融中心吸納全球融資的必然結果。三個地方有截然不同的負債結構以及背後的原因：日本以國家財政承接九十年代泡沫爆破的代價，背後是財閥與政治深度共生的鐵三角；新加坡自被迫獨立以來以 CPF、組屋和主權基金構建制度性架構，建構出另一種獨特的管治模式。真正值得深思的是，香港正由尋租型經濟和聯繫匯率共同塑造了一套市場主導的城市基因。2022年至今，香港政府持續的結構性赤字、土地收入萎縮、以及北京財政思維對本地政策取向的滲透，正在考驗這套基因能否在根本改造的壓力下維持完整。問：香港負債380%是否等同於財政危機？ 答：380%本身並不直接代表危機，關鍵在於負債的成份。其中67%政府債務大部分為外匯基金票據，背後有超過100%的美元資產抵押，屬於聯繫匯率的貨幣架構工具，非無擔保借貸。企業負債227%主要來自在港上市企業（當中八成市值屬內地公司）在香港進行美元融資，屬金融中介城市的正常現象，並非本地系統性風險。問：日本政府債務為何由1991年的約60% GDP膨脹至今日超過兩倍？ 答：1991年資產泡沫爆破後，大量日本企業和金融機構資不抵債，但政府選擇以擴張性財政政策補貼就業和維持供樓，避免社會出現斷層式的失業潮。這種選擇背後有日本財閥與政治圈深度共生的結構性原因——讓政治上重要的企業倒閉，在政治上根本不可行。結果就是私人資本錯配的代價被系統性轉移到政府的資產負債表，三十多年來持續累積。問：香港的「尋租型經濟」是如何形成的？ 答：香港自開埠以來，英國殖民者需要依賴本地精英（洋行、財團、銀行）協助管治，作為交換，精英階層獲得土地利益。這形成了一種封建式的層層尋租結構：政府收入主要依賴土地，地產商從中獲益，雙方利益高度一致。稅率因此長期維持低水平，而土地財政成為整個系統的資金來源。問：為何1997年後香港始終無法「變成新加坡」？ 答：新加坡的社會模式——CPF公積金、組屋、國家主導投資架構——是六十年制度積累的整體生態系統，無法以個別政策移植。更根本的是，如果香港要大幅擴展公營房屋，就必須壓縮土地財政收入，政府隨即失去主要收入來源，被迫轉向舉債。而香港在聯繫匯率下沒有獨立貨幣政策，這條路在財政上根本無法持續。問：新加坡的高政府債務（172% GDP）是否與香港的財政問題類似？ 答：兩者性質截然不同。新加坡的政府債務是制度性架構的產物——包括CPF供款、基建投資及主權基金運作，過去37年只出現兩次財政赤字，財政儲備透過GIC和淡馬錫主動創造回報。香港政府債務中真正屬於財政借貸的部分，是2022年以來結構性赤字持續累積的結果，背後缺乏對應的資產回報機制，性質與新加坡完全不同。問：自由港的三條法則是什麼，香港目前處於什麼位置？ 答：自由港有三個核心條件：一是貨物自由進出、無關稅；二是在國際政治上相對中立；三是管治由城市自身決定，而非由宗主國主導。香港在第一條上目前仍維持，但在第二和第三條上已出現根本性的動搖——國際政治定位愈趨清晰地偏向一方，而管治方針亦已非香港自主決定。新加坡恰好在這兩個條件上持續強化，令其逐漸承接了部分原本屬於香港的國際金融功能。問：香港最有可能演變成什麼樣的城市？ 答：若當前軌跡持續，香港最有可能演變成另一個中國內地城市，而非新加坡式的獨立城邦。香港變成新加坡，在邏輯上需要擁有獨立的主權決策空間——包括貨幣政策、外交定位和管治自主——這些條件在北京的政策框架下不可能出現。與此同時，上海等內地城市的崛起，亦令香港作為「中國的國際金融通道」這個獨特定位愈來愈難以維持。 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit leesimon.substack.com/subscribe

Find me on Substack!Matt Reustle is the former CEO of Colossus and architect of the Business Breakdowns podcast, who spent a decade at Goldman Sachs mastering business dissection before building one of the investment world's most influential media platforms.The episode is sponsored by TenzingMEMO — the AI-powered market intelligence platform I use daily for smarter company analysis. Code BILLIONS gets you an extended trial + 10% off.3:00 – Matt reflects on his upbringing: engineer father, educator mother, and how dinner table conversations about managing teams shaped his thinking on accountability and action.5:00 – The pivot from Goldman Sachs to Colossus: Matt describes the frustration with compliance-driven communication at large firms and the freedom podcasting offered to reach wider audiences with authentic analysis.7:15 – Second-order impact of content: how episodes designed for investors also reach management teams, founders, and unexpected audiences who extract different lessons.10:51 – From analyzing businesses to running one: Matt describes eating “humble pie” when moving from the investor seat to the operator seat, gaining appreciation for nuance, experimentation, and details that don't scale.15:06 – The Patek Philippe episode and stewardship: watches powered by human movement, built to last centuries, and the marketing genius of positioning a product as something you never truly own but look after for the next generation.19:09 – Long-term thinking benefits you now: Bogumil argues that applying a multi-generational filter to decisions delivers returns in the current generation, not just future ones.22:58 – What makes a compounder: Matt identifies three characteristics — a self-reinforcing sales model, religious cost efficiency, and disciplined capital allocation — set against the macro backdrop of industries growing faster than GDP.31:35 – Mapping value chains: finding mission-critical, low-cost components with high barriers to entry where small players capture outsized profits.37:34 – Financial hygiene: management teams that communicate future flexibility and demonstrate depth of knowledge signal discipline; track records outweigh rhetoric.43:40 – Evolutionary DNA of businesses: the ability to adapt and pivot, what Henry Ellenbogen calls “act two companies,” and why the best investors change their minds when information changes.49:30 – Audience of one philosophy: creating content for a specific person breeds focus, quality, and trust — and paradoxically reaches far more people than content designed for mass appeal.54:35 – AI as a creative superpower: interacting with your own content library in new ways, finding use cases from peers, and owning the technology rather than letting it own you.58:20 – Success as fulfillment: family, creation, and relationships — Matt's definition shaped by watching his parents balance it all.Podcast Program – Disclosure StatementBlue Infinitas Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser and the opinions expressed by the Firm's employees and podcast guests on this show are their own and do not reflect the opinions of Blue Infinitas Capital, LLC. All statements and opinions expressed are based upon information considered reliable although it should not be relied upon as such. Any statements or opinions are subject to change without notice.Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.EPISODE NOTES