Podcasts about gdp

While the new spending and tax law boosted the Child Tax Credit by $200, child care costs have risen 30% since before COVID. The U.S. spends less of its GDP on child care and pre-kindergarten than other industrialized nations, and many families face tough choices when confronting the cost of child care. Also on the program: a calm start to the week for financial markets despite political instability in Japan and a trade war.

While the new spending and tax law boosted the Child Tax Credit by $200, child care costs have risen 30% since before COVID. The U.S. spends less of its GDP on child care and pre-kindergarten than other industrialized nations, and many families face tough choices when confronting the cost of child care. Also on the program: a calm start to the week for financial markets despite political instability in Japan and a trade war.

As I round out this series on stress by sharing with you that stress can also cause skin problems such as acne, eczema, psoriasis and leading to flare ups.About the Host:Melissa is an Integrative Health Practitioner and a Board Designated Trainer of NLP, Time Line Therapy®, Hypnotherarpy, and NLP Results Coaching, helping people get to the root cause of their health issues and then get lasting results. Melissa neither diagnoses nor cures but helps bring your body back into balance by helping discover your “toxic load” and then removing the toxins. Melissa offers functional medicine lab testing that helps you “see inside” to know exactly what is going on, and then provides a personalized wellness protocol using natural herbs and supplements. Melissa's business is 100% virtual – the lab tests are mailed directly to your home and she specializes in holding your hand and guiding the way to healing so that you don't have to figure it all out on your own.Melissa has launched Amplify Impact Academy, with business partner, Billie Aadmi and together they train other coaches, practitioners and counsellors in the 4 mind-body healing modalities mentioned above, giving them powerful tools to use with clients to get results with greater ease, speed and grace. These courses teach life skills and anyone can take them, if you wanto be a better leader, parent, partner, be empowered in your own life, these courses are for you!Melissa's passion project is her non-profit, Girls Matter (www.girlsmatter.ca), breaking the poverty cycle 1 girl, 1 family, 1 village at a time. The mission is to keep girls in school and stop teenage marriages, because school isn't free in over 50 countries around the world and when parents have to make the difficult choices of feeding their kids or paying for school, food wins. And when the girls hit their teen years, they will often be married off so that someone else becomes responsible to feed them. Keeping girls in school instead creates a generational ripple effect, because an educated girl is more than twice as likely to ensure her on children are educated. Educating girls also grows the GDP of countries, when they get into the workforce. This is how together, we can change the world. Guests on this podcast are invited to donate to this important cause. Learn more here in this short video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R3-xqzJLZW14om1PhFClcU_oRSZ8zgip/view?usp=share_linkMelissa is the winner of the 2024 Women in Podcasting Awards in the “inspiration & motivation” category and the 2021 & 2022 Quality Care Award by Business From The Heart and is also the recipient of the Alignable “Local Business Person of the Year “Award 2022, 2023 & 2024 for Whistler.Melissa has been featured at a number of Health & Wellness Summits, such as the Health, Wealth & Wisdom Summit, The Power To Profit Summit, The Feel Fan-freaking-tas-tic Summit, the Aim Higher Summit and many more! She has also guested on over 90 different podcasts teaching people about the importance of prioritizing our health and how to get started. Linktree: https://linktr.ee/yourguidedhealthjourney Thanks for listening!If you know somebody who would benefit from this message, or would be an awesome addition to our community, please share it using the social media buttons on this page.Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a note

Dan Nathan welcomes Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at Niles Investment Management. They discuss Niles' approach to investment transparency and review his recent mid-year market update. The conversation covers the U.S.-China race in AI technology, macroeconomic trends, and the impact of tariffs. Niles highlights the performance and strategies of major tech companies including Nvidia, Microsoft, and their implications on the market. They also explore the potential overbuild in AI infrastructure and future market corrections. Additionally, Niles provides insights on the significance of macroeconomic indicators like debt-to-GDP ratios and the importance of valuations, emphasizing the interconnectedness of global markets. Links Dan Niles on X: https://x.com/DanielTNiles Dan's Website: https://www.nilesinvestmentmanagement.com/ Master Investor Podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUFttITJpAY —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Tracey Ryniec and Zacks Chief Equity Strategist, John Blank, dive into US employment, tariffs and GDP with some stock talk too. (1:00) - Breaking Down The Current Unemployment Data: How Does This Impact The Economy? (7:50) - Are We Currently Heading Into A Recession or Can We Recover? (21:00) - How Should You Be Navigating The Current Stock Market Environment Right Now? (30:20) - Will Nvidia Keep Pushing For New 52 Week Highs? (38:40) - What Lessons Can We Apply From Warren Buffetts Investing Style If We Head Into A Recession? (49:45) - What Impact Will The Federal Reserve, Tariffs and The Energy Market Have On A Possible Incoming Recession? (1:01:50) - Episode Roundup: FAST, NVDA, CTAS

Today, I want to share how it impacts our fertility. About the Host:Melissa is an Integrative Health Practitioner and a Board Designated Trainer of NLP, Time Line Therapy®, Hypnotherarpy, and NLP Results Coaching, helping people get to the root cause of their health issues and then get lasting results. Melissa neither diagnoses nor cures but helps bring your body back into balance by helping discover your “toxic load” and then removing the toxins. Melissa offers functional medicine lab testing that helps you “see inside” to know exactly what is going on, and then provides a personalized wellness protocol using natural herbs and supplements. Melissa's business is 100% virtual – the lab tests are mailed directly to your home and she specializes in holding your hand and guiding the way to healing so that you don't have to figure it all out on your own.Melissa has launched Amplify Impact Academy, with business partner, Billie Aadmi and together they train other coaches, practitioners and counsellors in the 4 mind-body healing modalities mentioned above, giving them powerful tools to use with clients to get results with greater ease, speed and grace. These courses teach life skills and anyone can take them, if you wanto be a better leader, parent, partner, be empowered in your own life, these courses are for you!Melissa's passion project is her non-profit, Girls Matter (www.girlsmatter.ca), breaking the poverty cycle 1 girl, 1 family, 1 village at a time. The mission is to keep girls in school and stop teenage marriages, because school isn't free in over 50 countries around the world and when parents have to make the difficult choices of feeding their kids or paying for school, food wins. And when the girls hit their teen years, they will often be married off so that someone else becomes responsible to feed them. Keeping girls in school instead creates a generational ripple effect, because an educated girl is more than twice as likely to ensure her on children are educated. Educating girls also grows the GDP of countries, when they get into the workforce. This is how together, we can change the world. Guests on this podcast are invited to donate to this important cause. Learn more here in this short video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R3-xqzJLZW14om1PhFClcU_oRSZ8zgip/view?usp=share_linkMelissa is the winner of the 2024 Women in Podcasting Awards in the “inspiration & motivation” category and the 2021 & 2022 Quality Care Award by Business From The Heart and is also the recipient of the Alignable “Local Business Person of the Year “Award 2022, 2023 & 2024 for Whistler.Melissa has been featured at a number of Health & Wellness Summits, such as the Health, Wealth & Wisdom Summit, The Power To Profit Summit, The Feel Fan-freaking-tas-tic Summit, the Aim Higher Summit and many more! She has also guested on over 90 different podcasts teaching people about the importance of prioritizing our health and how to get started. Linktree: https://linktr.ee/yourguidedhealthjourney Thanks for listening!If you know somebody who would benefit from this message, or would be an awesome addition to our community, please share it using the social media buttons on this page.Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a note in the comment section below! Subscribe to the podcast!If...

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing sifts through a deluge of DM inflation data to highlight where tariff effects are coming through, where price pressures look too hot and which central banks are best positioned to press on with policy easing. He also talks to David Wilder about what China's manufacturing overdrive is doing to the global inflation picture.Also on the show, how serious is Donald Trump about forcing out Jerome Powell? Deputy Chief North America Economist Stephen Brown talks about the market response to the latest attacks on the Fed chief, why forcing him out could prove counterproductive for a president wanting cheaper borrowing costs, and what to watch as the White House steps up the pressure. Events and analysis referenced in this episode:ECB Watch: A pause, or an end, to the easing cycleGlobal Drop-In: Fed, ECB and Bank of England – Unpacking the latest rate movesDrop-In: Could South Africa be about to see a big bond rally?Read: What happens if Trump fires Powell?

Positive Economic Indicators and Market Insights - July 17th In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the record close of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, along with positive performances from the DOW. The market rally was driven by encouraging economic data including improved retail sales, jobless claims, manufacturing data, home builder sentiment, and lower than expected import prices. Seitel emphasizes the robust health of U.S. consumers, given the low unemployment rate and wage growth outpacing inflation. He also discusses market multiples, the risk in volatile investments like crypto and AI, and the importance of long-term asset management. Additionally, Szytel addresses questions about government spending's role in GDP and the growth of the money supply. 00:00 Welcome and Market Overview 00:25 Positive Economic Data Highlights 00:49 Consumer Strength and Employment 01:41 Manufacturing and Housing Insights 02:15 Market Sentiment and Risks 03:39 Government Spending and GDP 04:41 Money Supply Growth Discussion 05:15 Q&A and Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this episode, we dive headfirst into one of Europe's most brutal and under-discussed chapters: the collapse of Yugoslavia. Live from Croatia, where the scars of that war still linger, and where, 30 years on, the economic, political, and human fallout continues to echo across the continent. We explore how hyperinflation, sparked by debt-fuelled mismanagement and ethnic tension, helped tear the country apart. At one point, Yugoslavia's army was the largest in Europe. Today, its people make up the single largest intra-EU migrant group. In Ireland alone, over 40,000 Croats were issued PPS numbers in the last five years. We walk you through the tangled roots of nationalism, the rotating presidency that doomed a federation, and how the ghost of Tito, who told Stalin to feck off in 1946, still haunts the region. We also talk Jamie Dimon, who popped up in Dublin last week declaring “Europe has lost,” and we break down what that means in GDP terms: 25 years ago, US and EU GDP per capita were neck-and-neck—now the US is 25% ahead. We trace that back to 1995 and ask: What if Yugoslavia was the first warning shot? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After a successful spell working in corporate law at Ashurst, today’s guest Rebecca Ogg carved out a stellar career as a sustainable investing analyst. In this episode, she joins Ashurst’s Elena Lambros to explain how sustainable finance and smart policymaking can help redirect capital towards climate-positive outcomes. Rebecca has her finger on the pulse of changes in sustainable investing, and her passion shines through as she describes Fidelity International’s twin approach—mitigating environmental and social risks, as well as funding innovative solutions to benefit society and the natural world in the long term. From investing in green infrastructure to tackling risks like water scarcity and climate-related GDP loss, Rebecca and Elena get right to the heart of sustainable finance. Rebecca also pinpoints four practical actions that individuals can take to contribute to the energy transition. Listen to more episodes in the Game Changers series – featuring an array of thought-provoking guests – by subscribing to ESG Matters @ Ashurst on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. The information provided is not intended to be a comprehensive review of all developments in the law and practice, or to cover all aspects of those referred to. Listeners should take legal advice before applying it to specific issues or transactions. The material discussed in this interview is not advice of any kind. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. You should consider these matters and seek advice before acting on the information. Interests in the funds referred to in this interview are not offered in Australia. FIL Responsible Entity (Australia) Limited, AFSL No. 409340. ABN 33 148 059 009 (“Fidelity Australia”). Fidelity Australia is a member of the FIL Limited group of companies commonly known as Fidelity International. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our analysts Paul Walsh, James Lord and Marina Zavolock discuss the dollar's decline, the strength of the euro, and the mixed impact on European equities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of European Product. And today we're discussing the weakness we've seen year-to-date in the U.S. dollar and what this means for the European stock market.It's Tuesday, July the 15th at 3:00 PM in London.I'm delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Marina Zavolock, Morgan Stanley's Chief European Equity Strategist, and James Lord, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global FX Strategist.James, I'm going to start with you because I think we've got a really differentiated view here on the U.S. dollar. And I think when we started the year, the bearish view that we had as a house on the U.S. dollar, I don't think many would've agreed with, frankly. And yet here we are today, and we've seen the U.S. dollar weakness proliferating so far this year – but actually it's more than that.When I listen to your view and the team's view, it sounds like we've got a much more structurally bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar from here, which has got some tenure. So, I don't want to steal your thunder, but why don't you tell us, kind of frame the debate, for us around the U.S. dollar and what you're thinking.James Lord: So, at the beginning of the year, you're right. The consensus was that, you know, the election of Donald Trump was going to deliver another period of what people have called U.S. exceptionalism.Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: And with that it would've been outperformance of U.S. equities, outperformance of U.S. growth, continued capital inflows into the United States and outperformance of the U.S. dollar.At the time we had a slightly different view. I mean, with the help of the economics team, we took the other side of that debate largely on the assumption that actually U.S. growth was quite likely to slow through 2025, and probably into 2026 as well – on the back of restrictions on immigration, lack of fiscal stimulus. And, increasingly as trade tariffs were going to be implemented…Paul Walsh: Yeah. Tariffs, of course…James Lord: That was going to be something that weighed on growth.So that was how we set out the beginning of the year. And as the year has progressed, the story has evolved. Like some of the other things that have happened, around just the extent to which tariff uncertainty has escalated. The section 899 debate.Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: Some of the softness in the data and just the huge amounts of uncertainty that surrounds U.S. policymaking in general has accelerated the decline in the U.S. dollar. So, we do think that this has got further to go. I mean, the targets that we set at the beginning of the year, we kind of already met them. But when we published our midyear outlook, we extended the target.So, we may even have to go towards the bull case target of euro-dollar of 130.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.James Lord: But as the U.S. data slows and the Fed debate really kicks off where at Morgan Stanley U.S. Economics research is expecting the Fed to ultimately cut to 2.5 percent...Paul Walsh: Yeah.Lord: That's really going to really weigh on the dollar as well. And this comes on the back of a 15-year bull market for the dollar.Paul Walsh: That's right.James Lord: From 2010 all the way through to the end of last year, the dollar has been on a tear.Paul Walsh: On a structural bull run.James Lord: Absolutely. And was at the upper end of that long-term historical range. And the U.S. has got 4 percent GDP current account deficit in a slowing growth environment. It's going to be tough for the dollar to keep going up. And so, we think we're sort of not in the early stages, maybe sort of halfway through this dollar decline. But it's a huge change compared to what we've been used to. So, it's going to have big implications for macro, for companies, for all sorts of people.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And I think that last point you make is absolutely critical in terms of the implications for corporates in particular, Marina, because that's what we spend every hour of every working day thinking about. And yes, currency's been on the radar, I get that. But I think this structural dynamic that James alludes to perhaps is not really conventional wisdom still, when I think about the sector analysts and how clients are thinking about the outlook for the U.S. dollar.But the good news is that you've obviously done detailed work in collaboration with the floor to understand the complexities of how this bearish dollar view is percolating across the different stocks and sectors. So, I wondered if you could walk us through what your observations are and what your conclusions are having done the work.Marina Zavolock: First of all, I just want to acknowledge that what you just said there. My background is emerging markets and coming into covering Europe about a year and a half ago, I've been surprised, especially amid the really big, you know, shift that we're seeing that James was highlighting – how FX has been kind of this secondary consideration. In the process of doing this work, I realized that analysts all look at FX in different way. Investors all look at FX in different way. And in …Paul Walsh: So do corporates.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, corporates all look at FX in different way. We've looked a lot at that. Having that EM background where we used to think about FX as much as we thought about equities, it was as fundamental to the story...Paul Walsh: And to be clear, that's because of the volatility…Marina Zavolock: Exactly, which we're now seeing now coming into, you know, global markets effectively with the dollar moves that we've had. What we've done is created or attempted to create a framework for assessing FX exposure by stock, the level of FX mismatches, the types of FX mismatches and the various types of hedging policies that you have for those – particularly you have hedging for transactional FX mismatches.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And we've looked at this from stock level, sector level, aggregating the stock level data and country level. And basically, overall, some of the key conclusions are that the list of stocks that benefit from Euro strength that we've identified, which is actually a small pocket of the European index. That group of stocks that actually benefits from euro strength has been strongly outperforming the European index, especially year-to-date.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And just every day it's kind of keeps breaking on a relative basis to new highs. Given the backdrop of James' view there, we expect that to continue. On the other hand, you have even more exposure within the European index of companies that are being hit basically with earnings, downgrades in local currency terms. That into this earning season in particular, we expect that to continue to be a risk for local currency earnings.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: The stocks that are most negatively impacted, they tend to have a lot of dollar exposure or EM exposure where you have pockets of currency weakness as well. So overall what we found through our analysis is that more than half of the European index is negatively exposed to this euro and other local currency strength. The sectors that are positively exposed is a minority of the index. So about 30 percent is either materially or positively exposed to the euro and other local currency strength. And sectors within that in particular that stand out positively exposed utilities, real estate banks. And the companies in this bucket, which we spend a lot of time identifying, they are strongly outperforming the index.They're breaking to new highs almost on a daily basis relative to the index. And I think that's going to continue into earning season because that's going to be one of the standouts positively, amid probably a lot of downgrades for companies who have translational exposure to the U.S. or EM.Paul Walsh: And so, let's take that one step further, Marina, because obviously hedging is an important part of the process for companies. And as we've heard from James, of a 15-year bull run for dollar strength. And so most companies would've been hedging, you know, dollar strength to be fair where they've got mismatches. But what are your observations having looked at the hedging side of the equation?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me start with FX mismatches. So, we find that about half of the European index is exposed to some level of FX mismatches.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: So, you have intra-European currency mismatches. You have companies sourcing goods in Asia or China and shipping them to Europe. So, it's actually a favorable FX mismatch. And then as far as hedging, the type of hedging that tends to happen for companies is related to transactional mismatches. So, these are cost revenue, balance sheet mismatches; cashflow distribution type mismatches. So, they're more the types of mismatches that could create risk rather than translational mismatches, which are – they're just going to happen.Paul Walsh: Yeah.Marina Zavolock: And one of the most interesting aspects of our report is that we found that companies that have advanced hedging, FX hedging programs, they first of all, they tend to outperform, when you compare them to companies with limited or no hedging, despite having transactional mismatches. And secondly, they tend to have lower share price volatility as well, particularly versus the companies with no hedging, which have the most share price volatility.So, the analysis, generally, in Europe of this most, the most probably diversified region globally, is that FX hedging actually does generate alpha and contributes to relative performance.Paul Walsh: Let's connect the two a little bit here now, James, because obviously as companies start to recalibrate for a world where dollar weakness might proliferate for longer, those hedging strategies are going to have to change.So just any kind of insights you can give us from that perspective. And maybe implications across currency markets as a result of how those behavioral changes might play out, I think would be very interesting for our listeners.James Lord: Yeah, I think one thing that companies can do is change some of the tactics around how they implement the hedges. So, this can revolve around both the timing and also the full extent of the hedge ratios that they have. I mean, some companies who are – in our conversations with them when they're talking about their hedging policy, they may have a range. Maybe they don't hedge a 100 percent of the risk that they're trying to hedge. They might have to do something between 80 and a hundred percent. So, you can, you can adjust your hedge ratios…Paul Walsh: Adjust the balances a bit.James Lord: Yeah. And you can delay the timing of them as well.The other side of it is just deciding like exactly what kind of instrument to use to hedge as well. I mean, you can hedge just using pure spot markets. You can use forward markets and currencies. You can implement different types of options, strategies.And I think this was some of the information that we were trying to glean from the survey was this question that Marina was asking about. Do you have a limited or advanced hedging program? Typically, we would find that corporates that have advanced programs might be using more options-based strategies, for example. And you know, one of the pieces of analysis in the report that my colleague Dave Adams did was really looking at the effectiveness of different strategies depending on the market environment that we're in.So, are we in a sort of risk-averse market environment, high vol environment? Different types of strategies work for different types of market environments. So, I would encourage all corporates that are thinking about implementing some kind of hedging strategy to have a look at that document because it provides a lot of information about the different ways you can implement your hedges. And some are much more cost effective than others.Paul Walsh: Marina, last thought from you?Marina Zavolock: I just want to say overall for Europe there is this kind of story about Europe has no growth, which we've heard for many years, and it's sort of true. It is true in local currency terms. So European earnings growth now on consensus estimates for this year is approaching one percent; it's close to 1 percent. On the back of the moves we've already seen in FX, we're probably going to go negative by the time this earning season is over in local currency terms. But based on our analysis, that is primarily impacted by translation.So, it is just because Europe has a lot of exposure to the U.S., it has some EM exposure. So, I would just really emphasize here that for investors; so, investors, many of which don't hedge FX, when you're comparing Europe growth to the U.S., it's probably better to look in dollar terms or at least in constant currency terms. And in dollar terms, European earnings growth at this point are 7.6 percent in dollar terms. That's giving Europe the benefit for the euro exposure that it has in other local currencies.So, I think these things, as FX starts to be front of mind for investors more and more, these things will become more common focus points. But right now, a lot of investors just compare local currency earnings growth.Paul Walsh: So, this is not a straightforward topic, and we obviously think this is a very important theme moving through the balance of this year. But clearly, you're going to see some immediate impact moving through the next quarter of earnings.Marina and James, thanks as always for helping us make some sense of it all.James Lord: Thanks, Paul.Marina Zavolock: Thank you.Paul Walsh: And to our listeners out there, thank you as always for tuning in.If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

U.S. tariffs have had limited impact so far on inflation and corporate earnings. Our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets explains why – and when – that might change.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today I'm going to talk about why tariffs are showing up everywhere – but the data; and why we think this changes this quarter. It's Wednesday, July 16th at 2pm in London. Investors have faced tariff headlines since at least February. The fact that it's now mid-July and markets are still grinding higher is driving some understandable skepticism that they're going to have their promised impact. Indeed, we imagine that maybe more of one of you is groaning and saying, ‘What? Another tariff episode?' But we do think this theme remains important for markets. And above all, it's a factor we think is going to hit very soon. We think it's kind of now – the third quarter – when the promised impact of tariffs on economic data and earnings really start to come through. My colleague Jenna Giannelli and I discussed some of the reasons why, on last week's episode focused on the retail sector. But what I want to do next is give a little bit of that a broader context. Where I want to start is that it's really about tariff impact picking up right about now. The inflation readings that we got earlier this week started to show US core inflation picking up again, driven by more tariff sensitive sectors. And while second quarter earnings that are being reported right about now, we think will generally be fine, and maybe even a bit better than expected; the third quarter earnings that are going to be generated over the next several months, we think those are more at risk from tariff related impact. And again, this could be especially pronounced in the consumer and retail sector. So why have tariffs not mattered so much so far, and why would that change very soon? The first factor is that tariff rates are increasing rapidly. They've moved up quickly to a historically high 9 percent as of today; even with all of the pauses and delays. And recently announced actions by the US administration over just the last couple of weeks could effectively double this rate again -- from 9 percent to somewhere between 15 to 20 percent.A second reason why this is picking up now is that tariff collections are picking up now. US Customs collected over $26 billion in tariffs in June, which annualizes out to about 1 percent of GDP, a very large number. These collections were not nearly as high just three months ago. Third, tariffs have seen pauses and delayed starts, which would delay the impact. And tariffs also exempted goods that were in transit, which can be significant from goods coming from Europe or Asia; again, a factor that would delay the impact. But these delays are starting to come to fruition as those higher tariff collections and higher tariff rates would suggest. And finally, companies did see tariffs coming and tried to mitigate them. They ordered a lot of inventory ahead of tariff rates coming into effect. But by the third quarter, we think they've sold a lot of that inventory, meaning they no longer get the benefit. Companies ordered a lot of socks before tariffs went into effect. But by the third quarter and those third quarter earnings, we think they will have sold them all. And the new socks they're ordering, well, they come with a higher cost of goods sold. In short, we think it's reasonable to expect that the bulk of the impact of tariffs and economic and earnings data still lies ahead, especially in this quarter – the third quarter of 2025. We continue to think that it's probably in August and September rather than June-July, where the market will care more about these challenges as core inflation data continues to pick up. For credit, this leaves us with an up in quality bias, especially as we move through that August to September period. And as Jenna and I discussed last week, we are especially cautious on the retail credit sector, which we think is more exposed to these various factors converging in the third quarter. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen; and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Immigration. It's a topic that ignites passion, confusion, and often division. These days, the word “immigrant” can split a room in half and not always politely. 

But here's the truth: whether documented or undocumented, immigrants have always been part of the American story. They've built railroads, harvested crops, launched companies, cared for families—not just their own—and they've done all this while paying billions in taxes.ImmigrationNation of immigrantsTimeline of immigration policyWho benefits from all these immigration reforms?Today's undocumented labor.How the US benefited from immigrants.How to Fix it?Want to adopt my foster puppy? Contact Angel City PittsCatch me at the Laugh Factory CovinaSunday, July 20, 2025 at 7:00 pmGet your tickets HEREMusic by Loghan LongoriaFollow us on instagram: Sergio Novoa My Limited View PodReferences:Center for American Progress“The Economic Benefits of Passing the Dream and Promise Act” (2021)➤ Shows legalization of undocumented immigrants could increase U.S. GDP by $1.7 trillion over 10 years.https://www.americanprogress.org/article/economic-benefits-passing-dream-promise-act/Pew Research Center“Facts on U.S. Immigrants” (2024)➤ Provides updated estimates of the undocumented population (~10.5 million) and their demographics.https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2023/11/02/5-facts-about-u-s-immigrants/Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP)“Undocumented Immigrants' State & Local Tax Contributions” (2017)➤ Shows undocumented immigrants contribute over $11 billion in state and local taxes.https://itep.org/undocumented-immigrants-state-local-tax-contributions-2/U.S. Department of Labor – National Agricultural Workers Survey➤ Indicates 50–70% of farmworkers are undocumented.https://www.dol.gov/agencies/eta/national-agricultural-workers-surveyMigration Policy Institute“Immigrant Health-Care Workers in the United States” (2021)➤ Foreign-born workers represent a significant portion of U.S. doctors, nurses, and STEM professionals.https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/immigrant-health-care-workers-united-statesDepartment of Homeland Security – Entry/Exit Overstay Report (2020)➤ Most new undocumented immigrants are visa overstays, not border crossers.https://www.dhs.gov/publication/entryexit-overstay-reportU.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)➤ Explains employment-based green card quotas (140,000 annually including dependents).https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/permanent-workersNational Foundation for American Policy“Immigrant Entrepreneurs and U.S. Billion-Dollar Companies” (2022)➤ Immigrants founded over 55% of billion-dollar U.S. startups.https://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Immigrant-Founders-of-Billion-Dollar-Companies.NFAP-Policy-Brief.July-2022.pdfCongressional Research Service (CRS)“U.S. Immigration Policy: Chart Book of Key Trends” (Updated 2023)➤ Offers a comprehensive overview of immigration policy history and trends.https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R42988U.S. Department of Justice – Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR)➤ Reports on immigration court backlog, which exceeds 1 million cases.https://www.justice.gov/eoir/page/file/1412106/downloadU.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS)“Annual Report of the Immigration and Naturalization Service” (1954)➤ Official report documenting the scale of Operation Wetback and the number of deportations.https://www.uscis.gov/history-and-genealogy/historic-annual-reportsLibrary of Congress – U.S. Immigration Legislation OnlineImmigration and Nationality Act of 1952 (McCarran-Walter Act)➤ Details the legal framework that criminalized unauthorized entry and enabled mass deportations.https://guides.loc.gov/immigration-legislationSmithsonian Institution – National Museum of American History“Operation Wetback: A Tragic History of Deportation”➤ Overview of Operation Wetback and its social/humanitarian consequences.https://americanhistory.si.edu/blog/operation-wetbackUniversity of Texas Press – Kelly Lytle Hernández“Migra! A History of the U.S. Border Patrol” (2010)➤ Deep dive into the history and racial motivations behind U.S. immigration enforcement, including Operation Wetback.https://utpress.utexas.edu/9780292718592/PBS – Latino Americans Documentary SeriesEpisode: “Prejudice and Pride”➤ Includes firsthand accounts of deportations and family separations under Operation Wetback.https://www.pbs.org/latino-americans/en/episode-guide/Migration Policy Institute“Immigration Enforcement in the United States: The Rise of a Formidable Machinery” (2013)➤ Provides historical context and data for enforcement policies including Operation Wetback.https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/immigration-enforcement-united-states-rise-formidable-machinery

Economic theory has come to wield outsized influence over our societal goals, decisions, and policies – often relying on models that claim to optimize how human systems function. Yet the outcomes of our modern economic structures tell a different story: accelerating ecological collapse, widening inequality, declining public health, and increasing social disconnection. What if the foundational principles of mainstream economics are actually built on false assumptions that obscure the realities of our world?  In this conversation, Nate is joined by ecological economist Josh Farley to explore the persistent myths taught in business schools, and the disconnect between economic theory and reality. Building on Nate's recent Frankly episode, they unpack topics like the misconception between value and price, how GDP is a flawed measure of well-being, the truth about debt, and the ripple effects these have across market dynamics. Ultimately, Josh emphasizes the need for a new economic framework that prioritizes cooperation, well-being, and ecological stewardship. How could we change the incentives that are embedded in our economy to prioritize the well-being of people and the planet? What would happen to our economies if we rooted them in the science of psychology, ecology, and physics? Most of all, could prioritizing cooperation and community be the key to realigning our economic systems to be in service of life?  (Conversation recorded on June 10th, 2025)   About Josh Farley: Josh Farley is an ecological economist and Professor in Community Development & Applied Economics and Public Administration and a Fellow in the Gund Institute for Environment at the University of Vermont. He was formerly President of the International Society for Ecological Economics and the point person for the Ecological Economics Network Strategy Center, as well as part of the Leadership for the Ecozoic Initiative with McGill University. He is also the co-author with Herman Daly of Ecological Economics: Principles and Applications, 2nd edition. His broad research interests focus on the design of an economy capable of balancing what is biophysically possible with what is socially, psychologically, and ethically desirable. His current research focuses on the economics of essential resources, social dilemmas, agroecology, the democratization of monetary and financial systems, the evolution of cooperation, the economics of information, and The Commons.    Show Notes and More Watch this video episode on YouTube   Want to learn the broad overview of The Great Simplification in 30 minutes? Watch our Animated Movie.   ---   Support The Institute for the Study of Energy and Our Future Join our Substack newsletter Join our Discord channel and connect with other listeners  

Today I want to talk to you about the fact that stress hormones can cause insulin resistance, increasing your risk of type two diabetes.About the Host:Melissa is an Integrative Health Practitioner and a Board Designated Trainer of NLP, Time Line Therapy®, Hypnotherarpy, and NLP Results Coaching, helping people get to the root cause of their health issues and then get lasting results. Melissa neither diagnoses nor cures but helps bring your body back into balance by helping discover your “toxic load” and then removing the toxins. Melissa offers functional medicine lab testing that helps you “see inside” to know exactly what is going on, and then provides a personalized wellness protocol using natural herbs and supplements. Melissa's business is 100% virtual – the lab tests are mailed directly to your home and she specializes in holding your hand and guiding the way to healing so that you don't have to figure it all out on your own.Melissa has launched Amplify Impact Academy, with business partner, Billie Aadmi and together they train other coaches, practitioners and counsellors in the 4 mind-body healing modalities mentioned above, giving them powerful tools to use with clients to get results with greater ease, speed and grace. These courses teach life skills and anyone can take them, if you wanto be a better leader, parent, partner, be empowered in your own life, these courses are for you!Melissa's passion project is her non-profit, Girls Matter (www.girlsmatter.ca), breaking the poverty cycle 1 girl, 1 family, 1 village at a time. The mission is to keep girls in school and stop teenage marriages, because school isn't free in over 50 countries around the world and when parents have to make the difficult choices of feeding their kids or paying for school, food wins. And when the girls hit their teen years, they will often be married off so that someone else becomes responsible to feed them. Keeping girls in school instead creates a generational ripple effect, because an educated girl is more than twice as likely to ensure her on children are educated. Educating girls also grows the GDP of countries, when they get into the workforce. This is how together, we can change the world. Guests on this podcast are invited to donate to this important cause. Learn more here in this short video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R3-xqzJLZW14om1PhFClcU_oRSZ8zgip/view?usp=share_linkMelissa is the winner of the 2024 Women in Podcasting Awards in the “inspiration & motivation” category and the 2021 & 2022 Quality Care Award by Business From The Heart and is also the recipient of the Alignable “Local Business Person of the Year “Award 2022, 2023 & 2024 for Whistler.Melissa has been featured at a number of Health & Wellness Summits, such as the Health, Wealth & Wisdom Summit, The Power To Profit Summit, The Feel Fan-freaking-tas-tic Summit, the Aim Higher Summit and many more! She has also guested on over 90 different podcasts teaching people about the importance of prioritizing our health and how to get started. Linktree: https://linktr.ee/yourguidedhealthjourney Thanks for listening!If you know somebody who would benefit from this message, or would be an awesome addition to our community, please share it using the social media buttons on this page.Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a note in the comment...

Jarret Bilous and Sean Cudahy preview United Airlines (UAL) earnings. Jarret thinks fears have eased around the airlines since April tariff announcements. Sean expects UAL's report to look a lot like Delta's (DAL) last week. “The big question here is, how much softness does United see in the main cabin?” Sean asks. Jarret notes that “at a really high level,” GDP and airline revenue are related. “It also falls into the strength of the business traveler,” he adds.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

A White House official said President Trump waved a letter telling House Members he was firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Turns out it was a prop but the markets reacted. This is the Business News Headlines for Wednesday the 16th day of July, thanks for being here.   In other news, yesterday we shared the bump inflation took last month today we'll look at the producer price index.  The Nvidia CEO says he had little to do with getting approval from the administration to sell chips to China. A reversal about medical debt and credit reports to share with you.  So how are American owned companies in China doing?  We've got some news. Meanwhile China posted it's GDP and we'll share what happened there.  The Wall Street Report and finally a dismal report dealing with home loans and the reasons behind the drop.  Let's go! Thanks for listening! The award winning Insight on Business the News Hour with Michael Libbie is the only weekday business news podcast in the Midwest. The national, regional and some local business news along with long-form business interviews can be heard Monday - Friday. You can subscribe on  PlayerFM, Podbean, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or TuneIn Radio. And you can catch The Business News Hour Week in Review each Sunday Noon Central on News/Talk 1540 KXEL. The Business News Hour is a production of Insight Advertising, Marketing & Communications. You can follow us on Twitter @IoB_NewsHour...and on Threads @Insight_On_Business.

On The Bill Meyer Show, economist and Hard Asset Management CEO Christian Briggs joins to unpack the skyrocketing interest in gold, the collapse of silver recycling, and the deeper implications of Trump-backed legislation like the Genius Act. With real-time analysis of the U.S. dollar's decline, central banks stockpiling gold, and a global shift toward central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), Briggs warns we may be sleepwalking into a programmable money system—where privacy disappears and your wallet could be frozen with a keystroke. He explains how Trump's efforts to stabilize the dollar and boost GDP via digital transformation could hand future administrations the ultimate power switch. From hard assets to hybrid stablecoins, this episode is a wake-up call about the future of money—and the accelerating race to digitize everything.

Martyn 'Bomber' Bradbury this week is joined by a HEAVYWEIGHT panel comprised of Simon Wilson, Claudette Hauiti, and Prof. Jane Kelsey. Together they tear into the brain fog of a recessionary Kiwi economy, David Seymour’s dodgy Regulatory Standards Bill, and Winston Peters' Covid Inquiry-for-clicks. With 30,000 New Zealanders fleeing and GDP flatlining, the crew ask - who exactly is “growth” growing for? Leader of the Opposition Chris Hipkins is this week's special guest, and of course we have the War on News. Powered by Waatea News.

"Either you don't have a fiat currency or you don't have a democracy. But the two things together, and this has been proven, cannot coexist happily without the complete erosion of purchasing power of a civilization and the complete erosion of an empire - which is exactly what has occurred and what has occurred throughout history.The natural bedfellow for a fiat economy is a dictatorship.The natural bedfellow for bitcoin is democracy."~ Daniel BattenIn this episode I sat down with Daniel Batten, who discovered Bitcoin's environmental benefits before grasping its economic power, and his journey reveals something profound about the nature of fiat money itself. How did we become trapped in a desire-based economy that rewards consumption over saving? Daniel traces this back to the 1920s propaganda campaigns that transformed capitalism from meeting needs to manufacturing wants—and explains why Bitcoin might be the antidote to a century of psychological manipulation. But here's what really caught my attention: if the natural state of fiat is dictatorship, what does that mean for small nations trying to maintain sovereignty? From Bhutan's quiet accumulation of Bitcoin worth nearly half their GDP to Pakistan's strategic pivot away from IMF dependency, we're witnessing a fundamental shift in global power structures. Are we watching the end of financial colonialism? And could Bitcoin mining on landfills actually turn the waste of Western civilization into the foundation for sound money? This conversation will change how you think about money, consumption, and what it really means to fix the incentives. Check out our awesome sponsors! Ledn: Need fiat but don't want to sell your Bitcoin? Ledn offers secure, Bitcoin-backed loans with no credit checks, flexible repayment, and fast turnaround—often within 24 hours. With $10B+ in loans across 100+ countries and transparent Proof of Reserves, Ledn is a trusted option for unlocking liquidity without giving up your Bitcoin. (Link: https://ledn.io) HRF: Subscribe for free to HRF's Financial Freedom Report to stay updated on our latest work advancing freedom tech and defending human rights around the world. (Link: https://hrf.org/financial-freedom-reports/) OFF: The Oslo Freedom Forum is a global human rights event by the Human Rights Foundation (HRF), uniting voices from activism, journalism, tech, and beyond. Through powerful stories and collaboration, OFF advances freedom and human potential worldwide. Join us next June. (Link: https://oslofreedomforum.com/) Pubky: Pubky is building the next web, a decentralized system designed to put control back in your hands. Escape censorship, algorithmic manipulation, and walled gardens by owning your identity and data. Explore the Pubky web and become the algorithm today. Don't forget to find me on my Pubky ID here: pk:5d7thwzkxx5mz6gk1f19wfyykr6nrwzaxri3io7ahejg1z74qngo. (Link: https://pubky.org/)

China ranks second globally in STEM education development, trailing only the United States, according to a new index released on Sunday by the Tongji University STEM Education think tank in Shanghai. 上海同济大学 STEM 教育智库周日发布的一项新指数显示，中国在 STEM 教育发展方面位居全球第二，仅次于美国。 The Global STEM Education Development Index 2025, billed as the world's first comprehensive evaluation tool for national and regional science, technology, engineering and mathematics education development, placed the US in the top position with 86.50 points. China followed closely with 85.46 points. Switzerland, Singapore and Denmark rounded out the top five countries. 《2025 全球 STEM 教育发展指数》被誉为全球首个针对国家和地区科学、技术、工程与数学教育发展的综合评估工具。该指数中，美国以 86.50 分位居榜首，中国以 85.46 分紧随其后，瑞士、新加坡和丹麦跻身前五。 The index, developed with academic guidance from the Chinese Society of Educational Development Strategy and data from Elsevier, systematically assessed the STEM education development levels of 40 major countries and regions worldwide. It established 22 indicators across three dimensions: policy and resources, educational processes, and outcomes and impacts, aiming to provide a scientific benchmark for optimizing national STEM education strategies.该指数在全国教育发展战略学会的学术指导下编制，数据来源于爱思唯尔（Elsevier），系统评估了全球 40 个主要国家和地区的 STEM 教育发展水平。指数从政策与资源、教育过程、成果与影响三个维度设置了 22 项指标，旨在为优化各国 STEM 教育战略提供科学基准。 A representative from Tongji University highlighted the increasing global technological competition, stating that STEM education has become a core pillar supporting national innovation capacity and high-quality development. 同济大学一位代表强调，全球科技竞争日益激烈，STEM 教育已成为支撑国家创新能力和高质量发展的核心支柱。 The release of the index is a direct response to a guideline jointly published in January by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, which called for deepening international STEM education cooperation and creating internationally influential indexes and reports. 该指数的发布是对今年 1 月中共中央、国务院联合印发的一份指导意见的直接响应，意见中呼吁深化 STEM 教育国际合作，打造具有国际影响力的指数和报告。 Further underscoring international recognition of China's STEM practices is the establishment of UNESCO's first Category 1 Center outside Europe and North America — the International Institute for STEM Education — in Shanghai. 联合国教科文组织在上海设立了国际 STEM 教育研究所，这是该组织在欧美以外地区设立的首个一类中心，进一步彰显了国际社会对中国 STEM 教育实践的认可。 The US' top ranking was attributed to its strong institutional and resource advantages, particularly in education funding as a percentage of GDP, its per-student expenditure and abundant education resources. 美国之所以位居榜首，得益于其强大的制度和资源优势，尤其是在教育经费占 GDP 比例、生均教育支出以及丰富的教育资源方面。 China, despite a relative gap in per capita resources, excelled in the "educational processes"dimension. Its outstanding performance in teachers' STEM competency scores, results from the Programme for International Student Assessment, or PISA, competition achievements and large-scale STEM graduate output helped offset these resource disparities. 中国尽管在人均资源方面存在相对差距，但在 “教育过程” 维度表现突出。其在教师 STEM 能力评分、国际学生评估项目（PISA）成绩、竞赛成果以及大规模 STEM 毕业生输出等方面的优异表现，弥补了这些资源差距。 Among emerging economies, India produced the world's largest number of STEM graduates at 3.34 million. However, its per-student funding amounted to only 17 percent of US levels, leading to a lower overall ranking of 30th place. 在新兴经济体中，印度的 STEM 毕业生数量全球最多，达 334 万人。但该国生均教育经费仅为美国的 17%，导致其总体排名较低，位列第 30 位。 The report emphasized that high proportions of education funding in GDP and per-student expenditure provide ample hardware support for research and teaching, fostering a virtuous cycle between basic research and talent cultivation. It also validated the significant impact of industry-academia-research collaboration and open international cooperation on the efficiency of STEM research output translation. 报告强调，教育经费占 GDP 比例高、生均教育支出高，能为科研和教学提供充足的硬件支持，促进基础研究与人才培养之间的良性循环。报告还证实，产学研合作以及开放的国际合作对 STEM 研究成果转化效率具有显著影响。 In past international assessments, Chinese students have demonstrated strong performance. The 2018 PISA, hosted every three years by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, found that 15-year-olds in Beijing, Shanghai and the provinces of Jiangsu and Zhejiang ranked No 1 in all three core subjects — reading, science and mathematics — achieving the highest Level 4 rating. While China did not participate in the 2022 PISA test, it has consistently been among the top scorers. 在过去的国际评估中，中国学生表现优异。经济合作与发展组织每三年举办一次 PISA 测试，2018 年的测试显示，北京、上海、江苏、浙江的 15 岁学生在阅读、科学、数学三个核心科目中均排名第一，达到最高的 4 级水平。尽管中国未参加 2022 年 PISA 测试，但此前一直位居高分行列。 Domestically, China is prioritizing AI education. A recent document issued by the Ministry of Education outlines a tiered AI education system covering all levels of primary and secondary education. The system will guide students from basic cognitive understanding in primary school to deeper analysis in middle school and applied innovation in high school. At the higher education level, the development of artificial intelligence education at universities has been a priority. 在国内，中国正优先发展人工智能教育。教育部近期发布的一份文件规划了覆盖中小学各学段的分级人工智能教育体系。该体系将引导学生在小学阶段形成基础认知，初中阶段进行深入分析，高中阶段开展应用创新。在高等教育层面，高校人工智能教育的发展已成为重点。 Since 2018, when the first 35 Chinese universities introduced undergraduate AI programs, the field has expanded significantly, with over 626 institutions nationwide now offering AI-related degrees. 自 2018 年中国首批 35 所高校开设人工智能本科专业以来，该领域发展显著，目前全国已有 626 所院校开设人工智能相关专业。 STEM /stem/ 科学（Science）、技术（Technology）、工程（Engineering）、数学（Mathematics）的缩写 index /ˈɪndeks/ 指数，指标 competency /ˈkɒmpɪtənsi/ 能力，胜任力 collaboration /kəˌlæbəˈreɪʃn/ 合作，协作

The meeting covered introductions and updates from various participants. Jim Farris discussed his real estate focus, while Clark Hoover highlighted his work on private credit. Stephen Burke presented a bullish outlook on the US economy, citing strong GDP growth, consumer net worth, and corporate profits. He also addressed concerns about tariffs, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical risks. The discussion transitioned to AI's role in business intelligence and decision intelligence, with examples from Radek Biszkont and Jukka Heikka. AI applications in finance, including portfolio optimization and data analysis, were highlighted, emphasizing AI's potential to streamline processes and improve decision-making. The meeting discussed various applications and implications of AI. Hana Hussein highlighted AI's role in identifying profitable sales channels and increasing company valuations. Jukka Heikka emphasized AI's scalability benefits. Clement Utuk noted AI's potential in customer service and manufacturing. Lucia Ordonez-Gamero raised cybersecurity concerns. Belinda Kǒkóèkà Ephraim stressed the importance of proprietary data in AI's effectiveness. Lubna Dajani warned about AI's potential misinformation. J.P. Keating discussed data quality and security. Christine Nady proposed using AI to enhance human-to-human connections and decision-making. Anita Vadavatha highlighted the shift towards synthetic data. The session concluded with a focus on AI's practical uses and ethical considerations.You can subscribe to various 361 events and content at https://361firm.com/subs. For reference:  - Web: www.361firm.com/home - Onboard as Investor: https://361.pub/shortdiag - Onboard Deals 361: www.361firm.com/onb - Onboard as Banker: www.361firm.com/bankers - Events: www.361firm.com/events - Content: www.youtube.com/361firm - Weekly Digests: www.361firm.com/digest

Our analysts Paul Walsh, James Lord and Marina Zavolock discuss the dollar's decline, the strength of the euro, and the mixed impact on European equities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Markets. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of European Product. And today we're discussing the weakness we've seen year-to-date in the U.S. dollar and what this means for the European stock market. It's Tuesday, July the 15th at 3:00 PM in London.I'm delighted to be joined by my colleagues, Marina Zavolock, Morgan Stanley's Chief European Equity Strategist, and James Lord, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global FX Strategist. James, I'm going to start with you because I think we've got a really differentiated view here on the U.S. dollar. And I think when we started the year, the bearish view that we had as a house on the U.S. dollar, I don't think many would've agreed with, frankly. And yet here we are today, and we've seen the U.S. dollar weakness proliferating so far this year – but actually it's more than that.When I listen to your view and the team's view, it sounds like we've got a much more structurally bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar from here, which has got some tenure. So, I don't want to steal your thunder, but why don't you tell us, kind of frame the debate, for us around the U.S. dollar and what you're thinking.James Lord: So, at the beginning of the year, you're right. The consensus was that, you know, the election of Donald Trump was going to deliver another period of what people have called U.S. exceptionalism. Paul Walsh: Yeah.James Lord: And with that it would've been outperformance of U.S. equities, outperformance of U.S. growth, continued capital inflows into the United States and outperformance of the U.S. dollar. At the time we had a slightly different view. I mean, with the help of the economics team, we took the other side of that debate largely on the assumption that actually U.S. growth was quite likely to slow through 2025, and probably into 2026 as well – on the back of restrictions on immigration, lack of fiscal stimulus. And, increasingly as trade tariffs were going to be implemented…Paul Walsh: Yeah. Tariffs, of course…James Lord: That was going to be something that weighed on growth.So that was how we set out the beginning of the year. And as the year has progressed, the story has evolved. Like some of the other things that have happened, around just the extent to which tariff uncertainty has escalated. The section 899 debate. Paul Walsh: Yeah. James Lord: Some of the softness in the data and just the huge amounts of uncertainty that surrounds U.S. policymaking in general has accelerated the decline in the U.S. dollar. So, we do think that this has got further to go. I mean, the targets that we set at the beginning of the year, we kind of already met them. But when we published our midyear outlook, we extended the target.So, we may even have to go towards the bull case target of euro-dollar of 130.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. James Lord: But as the U.S. data slows and the Fed debate really kicks off where at Morgan Stanley U.S. Economics research is expecting the Fed to ultimately cut to 2.5 percent... Paul Walsh: Yeah. Lord: That's really going to really weigh on the dollar as well. And this comes on the back of a 15-year bull market for the dollar. Paul Walsh: That's right. James Lord: From 2010 all the way through to the end of last year, the dollar has been on a tear. Paul Walsh: On a structural bull run.James Lord: Absolutely. And was at the upper end of that long-term historical range. And the U.S. has got 4 percent GDP current account deficit in a slowing growth environment. It's going to be tough for the dollar to keep going up. And so, we think we're sort of not in the early stages, maybe sort of halfway through this dollar decline. But it's a huge change compared to what we've been used to. So, it's going to have big implications for macro, for companies, for all sorts of people.Paul Walsh: Yeah. And I think that last point you make is absolutely critical in terms of the implications for corporates in particular, Marina, because that's what we spend every hour of every working day thinking about. And yes, currency's been on the radar, I get that. But I think this structural dynamic that James alludes to perhaps is not really conventional wisdom still, when I think about the sector analysts and how clients are thinking about the outlook for the U.S. dollar. But the good news is that you've obviously done detailed work in collaboration with the floor to understand the complexities of how this bearish dollar view is percolating across the different stocks and sectors. So, I wondered if you could walk us through what your observations are and what your conclusions are having done the work.Marina Zavolock: First of all, I just want to acknowledge that what you just said there. My background is emerging markets and coming into covering Europe about a year and a half ago, I've been surprised, especially amid the really big, you know, shift that we're seeing that James was highlighting – how FX has been kind of this secondary consideration. In the process of doing this work, I realized that analysts all look at FX in different way. Investors all look at FX in different way. And in …Paul Walsh: So do corporates.Marina Zavolock: Yeah, corporates all look at FX in different way. We've looked a lot at that. Having that EM background where we used to think about FX as much as we thought about equities, it was as fundamental to the story...Paul Walsh: And to be clear, that's because of the volatility…Marina Zavolock: Exactly, which we're now seeing now coming into, you know, global markets effectively with the dollar moves that we've had. What we've done is created or attempted to create a framework for assessing FX exposure by stock, the level of FX mismatches, the types of FX mismatches and the various types of hedging policies that you have for those – particularly you have hedging for transactional FX mismatches. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: And we've looked at this from stock level, sector level, aggregating the stock level data and country level. And basically, overall, some of the key conclusions are that the list of stocks that benefit from Euro strength that we've identified, which is actually a small pocket of the European index. That group of stocks that actually benefits from euro strength has been strongly outperforming the European index, especially year-to-date.Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: And just every day it's kind of keeps breaking on a relative basis to new highs. Given the backdrop of James' view there, we expect that to continue. On the other hand, you have even more exposure within the European index of companies that are being hit basically with earnings, downgrades in local currency terms. That into this earning season in particular, we expect that to continue to be a risk for local currency earnings. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm.Marina Zavolock: The stocks that are most negatively impacted, they tend to have a lot of dollar exposure or EM exposure where you have pockets of currency weakness as well. So overall what we found through our analysis is that more than half of the European index is negatively exposed to this euro and other local currency strength. The sectors that are positively exposed is a minority of the index. So about 30 percent is either materially or positively exposed to the euro and other local currency strength. And sectors within that in particular that stand out positively exposed utilities, real estate banks. And the companies in this bucket, which we spend a lot of time identifying, they are strongly outperforming the index.They're breaking to new highs almost on a daily basis relative to the index. And I think that's going to continue into earning season because that's going to be one of the standouts positively, amid probably a lot of downgrades for companies who have translational exposure to the U.S. or EM.Paul Walsh: And so, let's take that one step further, Marina, because obviously hedging is an important part of the process for companies. And as we've heard from James, of a 15-year bull run for dollar strength. And so most companies would've been hedging, you know, dollar strength to be fair where they've got mismatches. But what are your observations having looked at the hedging side of the equation?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me start with FX mismatches. So, so we find that about half of the European index is exposed to some level of FX mismatches. Paul Walsh: Mm-hmm. Marina Zavolock: So, you have intra-European currency mismatches. You have companies sourcing goods in Asia or China and shipping them to Europe. So, it's actually a favorable FX mismatch. And then as far as hedging, the type of hedging that tends to happen for companies is related to transactional mismatches. So, these are cost revenue, balance sheet mismatches; cashflow distribution type mismatches. So, they're more the types of mismatches that could create risk rather than translational mismatches, which are – they're just going to happen.Paul Walsh: Yeah. Marina Zavolock: And one of the most interesting aspects of our report is that we found that companies that have advanced hedging, FX hedging programs, they first of all, they tend to outperform, when you compare them to companies with limited or no hedging, despite having transactional mismatches. And secondly, they tend to have lower share price volatility as well, particularly versus the companies with no hedging, which have the most share price volatility. So, the analysis, generally, in Europe of this most, the most probably diversified region globally, is that FX hedging actually does generate alpha and contributes to relative performance.Paul Walsh: Let's connect the two a little bit here now, James, because obviously as companies start to recalibrate for a world where dollar weakness might proliferate for longer, those hedging strategies are going to have to change.So just any kind of insights you can give us from that perspective. And maybe implications across currency markets as a result of how those behavioral changes might play out, I think would be very interesting for our listeners.James Lord: Yeah, I think one thing that companies can do is change some of the tactics around how they implement the hedges. So, this can revolve around both the timing and also the full extent of the hedge ratios that they have. I mean, some companies who are – in our conversations with them when they're talking about their hedging policy, they may have a range. Maybe they don't hedge a 100 percent of the risk that they're trying to hedge. They might have to do something between 80 and a hundred percent. So, you can, you can adjust your hedge ratios…Paul Walsh: Adjust the balances a bit.James Lord: Yeah. And you can delay the timing of them as well.The other side of it is just deciding like exactly what kind of instrument to use to hedge as well. I mean, you can hedge just using pure spot markets. You can use forward markets and currencies. You can implement different types of options, strategies. And I think this was some of the information that we were trying to glean from the survey was this question that Marina was asking about. Do you have a limited or advanced hedging program? Typically, we would find that corporates that have advanced programs might be using more options-based strategies, for example. And you know, one of the pieces of analysis in the report that my colleague Dave Adams did was really looking at the effectiveness of different strategies depending on the market environment that we're in.So, are we in a sort of risk-averse market environment, high vol environment? Different types of strategies work for different types of market environments. So, I would encourage all corporates that are thinking about implementing some kind of hedging strategy to have a look at that document because it provides a lot of information about the different ways you can implement your hedges. And some are much more cost effective than others.Paul Walsh: Marina, last thought from you? Marina Zavolock: I just want to say overall for Europe there is this kind of story about Europe has no growth, which we've heard for many years, and it's sort of true. It is true in local currency terms. So European earnings growth now on consensus estimates for this year is approaching one percent; it's close to 1 percent. On the back of the moves we've already seen in FX, we're probably going to go negative by the time this earning season is over in local currency terms. But based on our analysis, that is primarily impacted by translation.So, it is just because Europe has a lot of exposure to the U.S., it has some EM exposure. So, I would just really emphasize here that for investors; so, investors, many of which don't hedge FX, when you're comparing Europe growth to the U.S., it's probably better to look in dollar terms or at least in constant currency terms. And in dollar terms, European earnings growth at this point are 7.6 percent in dollar terms. That's giving Europe the benefit for the euro exposure that it has in other local currencies. So, I think these things, as FX starts to be front of mind for investors more and more, these things will become more common focus points. But right now, a lot of investors just compare local currency earnings growth.Paul Walsh: So, this is not a straightforward topic, and we obviously think this is a very important theme moving through the balance of this year. But clearly, you're going to see some immediate impact moving through the next quarter of earnings. Marina and James, thanks as always for helping us make some sense of it all.James Lord: Thanks, Paul. Marina Zavolock: Thank you.Paul Walsh: And to our listeners out there, thank you as always for tuning in.If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

What if your work could be more about deep, cultural, spiritual, and educational work than financial gain? In this conversation with Alexa Firmenich, founder of Naia Trust and host of the Lifeworlds Podcast, we explore how to balance returns with impact and tradition with transformation in the investment industry. She explains that 100% of global GDP is dependent on nature, and if we're not supporting nature, we're not supporting the economy. For full show notes, visit: https://www.lifteconomy.com/blog/alexa-firmenich/Send us a textJoin our fall cohort of the Next Economy MBA, beginning September 30th! Join an alumni community of 700+ entrepreneurs, activists, and artists working to transform our economy for the benefit of all life. Plus, save 20% on tuition when you register before August 11th, 2025.Learn more ➡️ http://lifteconomy.com/mba Current federal policy decisions are affecting businesses and workers in our community in big ways. Actions like the recent tariffs and funding freezes have real-world consequences. American Sustainable Business Network (ASBN) is collecting stories to push for smarter, more sustainable policies. Add your voice to the movement: https://bit.ly/ASBNTellYourStorySupport the show

This week, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg analyze recent global events—from a political shift in New York to the Israel-Iran conflict—while exploring U.S.-China economic dynamics, evolving industrial policies, and the risk of a recession. The conversation also touches on historical economic shifts, tariffs, and manufacturing trends. – SPONSORS: NetSuite More than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Shopify Shopify is the world's leading e-commerce platform, offering a market-leading checkout system Shoppay and exclusive AI apps. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Get a $1 per month trial at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://shopify.com/momentofzen⁠⁠⁠⁠. AdQuick The easiest way to book out-of-home ads (like billboards, vehicle wraps, and airport displays) the same way you would order an Uber. Ready to get your brand the attention it deserves? Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://adquick.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ today to start reaching your customers in the real world. – SEND US YOUR Q's FOR NOAH TO ANSWER ON AIR: Econ102@Turpentine.co – FOLLOW ON X: @noahpinion @eriktorenberg @turpentinemedia – RECOMMENDED IN THIS EPISODE: China's industrial policy has an unprofitability problem: https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-industrial-policy-has-an-unprofitability Noahpinion: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.noahpinion.blog/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠ – TAKEAWAYS: New York City Politics: Discussion of a "Muslim socialist" winning what appears to be a NYC mayoral race. Middle East Geopolitics: Analysis of recent Iran bombing and its economic implications. China's Current Industrial Policy Problems: Xi Jinping's aggressive subsidization of strategic industries (EVs, semiconductors, batteries, solar panels). Key Economic Insights: China's export percentage of GDP is now lower than many developed countries, but the absolute volume still creates massive global impact due to China's size. US Manufacturing Revival: The importance of reducing regulatory barriers to enable more "sub-Elons" (entrepreneurs like Elon Musk).

Mark Vitner and Jeffrey Cleveland break down June CPI, which cooled as shelter costs dipped. Mark thinks the Fed is “still on course” after the report. He also expects the PPI to read about the same when it is released tomorrow. However, he thinks the labor market is “much weaker” than data shows. Jeffrey thinks rate cuts will start in September and we could potentially see multiple this year. Housing costs cooling “should keep inflation in check,” he adds. Jeffrey sees the tariffs as a drag on the economy and expects GDP to hit 1.5% this year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In the first half, we look at the OBBBA, and what its passage may mean for investors, as well as for the government's balance sheet. Debt from baseline projection of 154% of GDP to upwards of 200% of GDP with the OBBBA. Deficits from around 6% of GDP to over 7% with the OBBBA. Despite the ballooning deficits and debt, markets are celebrating the prospect of fiscal stimulus, as well as favorable tax treatments on investment as well as other corporate goodies. In the second half, we discuss President Trump's penmanship as it relates to his letter to Chair Powell on interest rates and why the “hottest country in the world” should “LOWER THE RATE!!!” We also look at the risk associated with the loss of Fed independence due to either political pressure or a dual role for the Treasury Secretary. At some point, we finally get around to talking about the stock market, and note the historic rebound in equities in Q2, which was the largest in record by some measures. The biggest winners were growth stocks, which led value by a wider margin than during the tech bubble, and retail favorites, which are often highly speculative names; these soared over 60% in Q2. We also look at the expectations embedded in markets at this point in terms of earnings and multiples, and what effect passive investing is having on markets as over half of U.S. fund assets are now passively invested. Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.

总理在北京结束高级别会谈 澳中重申贸易合作关系； 欧盟外长会晤 以敲定对俄罗斯的新一轮制裁； 中国第二季度GDP增长5.2%。（点击上方收听音频）

This Day in Legal History: “A Friend of the Constitution”On July 15, 1819, Chief Justice John Marshall took the unusual step of anonymously defending one of the most consequential Supreme Court decisions in American history—McCulloch v. Maryland. Writing under the pseudonym A Friend of the Constitution, Marshall authored a series of essays published in the Philadelphia Union and the Alexandria Gazette, responding to public criticism of the Court's expansive interpretation of federal power. The decision, issued earlier that year, had upheld Congress's authority to establish a national bank and struck down Maryland's attempt to tax it, solidifying the doctrine of federal supremacy.Marshall's public defense was significant because it revealed the political sensitivity of the ruling and the extent to which the legitimacy of the Court's reasoning was contested. The McCulloch opinion laid out the principle of implied powers under the Necessary and Proper Clause, asserting that the federal government could take actions not explicitly listed in the Constitution if they furthered constitutionally enumerated powers. The decision also famously stated, “the power to tax involves the power to destroy,” rejecting state efforts to control or burden federal institutions.Critics, particularly from states' rights factions, argued the decision centralized too much power in the federal government and eroded state sovereignty. Marshall's essays, though unsigned, were unmistakably in his judicial voice and aimed to calm anxieties about federal overreach by appealing to reason, constitutional structure, and the logic of a functioning union. His public engagement reflected an early awareness of the need to build public confidence in the judiciary's authority.This episode was rare in that a sitting Chief Justice chose to participate in public constitutional debate beyond the bench. It also underscored the foundational role McCulloch would come to play in defining the American system of federalism. The decision has remained a touchstone in constitutional law for over two centuries, cited in debates over congressional authority ranging from the New Deal to the Affordable Care Act.Marshall's intervention on July 15, 1819, was both defensive and visionary—a recognition that legal rulings do not exist in a vacuum and often require articulation beyond the courtroom to be enduring.The U.S. Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to proceed with its plan to dramatically reduce the size and scope of the Department of Education. In a brief unsigned order, the Court lifted a lower court's injunction that had temporarily reinstated about 1,400 laid-off employees and blocked the transfer of key department functions to other agencies. The decision marks a major victory for President Trump, who has pushed to return educational control to states and fulfill a campaign promise to minimize federal involvement in schools.Three liberal justices dissented, with Justice Sonia Sotomayor warning that the ruling effectively grants the president power to dismantle congressional mandates by eliminating staff necessary to carry them out. The Biden-appointed district judge who had issued the initial injunction found the layoffs would likely paralyze the department. Critics of the plan, including 21 Democratic attorneys general, school districts, and unions, argue that the move could delay federal aid, weaken civil rights enforcement, and harm disadvantaged students.Trump has stated that vital services like Pell grants and special education funding will continue, though responsibilities would shift to agencies such as the Small Business Administration and the Department of Health and Human Services. Education Secretary Linda McMahon praised the Court's decision, calling it a win for students and families. The legal battle continues in lower courts, but the Supreme Court's decision enables Trump to move forward with an aggressive downsizing strategy that would cut the department's staff by half compared to its size at the start of his presidency.US Supreme Court clears way for Trump to gut Education Department | ReutersGermany's Federal Constitutional Court dismissed a lawsuit brought by two Yemeni nationals seeking to hold the German government accountable for U.S. drone strikes conducted from Ramstein Air Base. The plaintiffs, whose relatives were killed in a 2012 strike, argued that Germany shared responsibility because Ramstein served as a key communications hub for U.S. drone operations. They claimed that Germany failed its duty to protect life by allowing the base to be used in actions that allegedly violated international law.The court ruled that while Germany has a general obligation to protect human rights, especially regarding foreign policy, this duty was not activated in the case. The judges found no clear evidence that the U.S. was applying unlawful criteria in distinguishing between legitimate military targets and civilians in Yemen. They also concluded that the German government had acted within its discretion by relying on the U.S. interpretation of international law.The decision reaffirmed Berlin's broad latitude in conducting foreign and security policy, including alliance cooperation. Germany's foreign and defense ministries welcomed the ruling, stating it validated their legal position. The plaintiffs criticized the outcome as setting a dangerous precedent by shielding states that facilitate U.S. drone operations from accountability when civilians are harmed. The case reignited debate over Germany's role in supporting U.S. military actions from its territory.Germany's top court dismisses complaint against US drone missions | ReutersThe U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit temporarily blocked the Trump administration's attempt to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for thousands of Afghans living in the United States. The court issued an administrative stay through July 21 in response to a request from the advocacy group CASA, which is challenging the Department of Homeland Security's April decision to revoke TPS for Afghans and Cameroonians. CASA argues the move was arbitrary, discriminatory, and would cause irreparable harm to those affected.TPS allows individuals from countries facing conflict or disaster to stay and work legally in the U.S. for renewable periods, typically between six and eighteen months. The lawsuit is part of broader resistance to Trump's long-standing efforts to roll back TPS protections, many of which were halted by courts during his first term. Afghan advocates say ending TPS now would put lives at risk, particularly among those who supported U.S. operations in Afghanistan and women facing repression under the Taliban.The court's stay is not a final ruling but gives time for the legal challenge to proceed. The administration has until July 17 to respond. AfghanEvac, a coalition of veterans and resettlement advocates, supports the legal fight and urges the administration to restore TPS protections. Over 70,000 Afghans were admitted to the U.S. under temporary parole following the 2021 Taliban takeover, many of whom could be deported without continued legal status.US appeals court temporarily upholds protected status for Afghans | ReutersCongress has finally corrected the costly mistake it made with Section 174, restoring immediate expensing for research and development. But I don't view this as a victory—it's a reset. For three years, businesses operating at the forefront of innovation were forced to amortize R&D costs, a move that was not only economically damaging but entirely unnecessary. While lawmakers delayed fixing their own error, peer nations like China and Singapore advanced forward-looking tax regimes that actively incentivize both research and commercialization.Restoring immediate expensing brings us back to where we were before 2017, but stability in the tax code shouldn't be treated as a favor to innovators—it should be the baseline. R&D thrives on long timelines and clear signals, not temporary fixes and partisan reversals. If Congress wants to take innovation seriously, it needs to treat R&D expensing like core infrastructure and embed automatic responsiveness into the tax code. For example, if GDP growth stalls or domestic R&D spending drops below a certain threshold, the deduction should automatically increase—just as China did with 120% expensing for integrated circuits and industrial machinery.Beyond that, we need to rethink what we're rewarding. Under current rules, companies receive tax breaks for spending on research whether or not those ideas ever generate revenue, jobs, or real-world application. I'm not arguing against basic research, but I believe we should offer enhanced incentives for firms that meet defined commercialization benchmarks—like securing patents, licensing products, or manufacturing IP domestically.Repealing amortization was the right move, but the three-year delay already did serious harm to sectors both parties claim to support. Immediate expensing should now be seen as the floor—not the ceiling—of effective R&D policy. We can't afford to let innovation incentives swing with the political winds. That's why I believe Congress should require full economic scoring from the Joint Committee on Taxation or CBO before any future attempt to undo R&D expensing. You can't bind future lawmakers—but you can make them confront the cost of setting another fire.Fixing the R&D Tax Code Blunder Isn't a Victory, It's a Reset This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.minimumcomp.com/subscribe

The mainstream investment community has long viewed emerging and frontier markets as high-risk regions fraught with numerous challenges. However, with growing populations and expanding digital access, these regions are poised to become the economic powerhouses of the future.In this compilation episode, we revisit 3 past conversations from Eliza Foo, Asha Mehta, and Monica Brand Engel, who are leveraging the power of impact investing to drive meaningful change across emerging economies.Each of these guests shared how they are turning risks into opportunities in emerging markets while earning impressive returns for their investors.By 2050, these regions will account for 70% of the global population and 50% of global GDP. This statistic alone shows the big opportunities that exist for businesses and investors alike.But we can't wish away the risks. Countries within these regions are often marked by political and economic volatility. In these conversations, we talk about evaluating these risks and overcoming challenges through innovative impact investing strategies.Eliza Foo, Director, Impact Investing at TemasekEliza Foo is a leader at Temasek, one of the world's most prestigious global investment firms, with a portfolio valued at USD $288 billion. Temasek invests across both public and private markets, operating with the flexibility of its own balance sheet, allowing them to pursue diverse opportunities across sectors, geographies, and asset classes.As the head of Temasek's Impact Investing team, Eliza plays a big role in the firm's mission to create value for both current and future generations. Under her leadership, Temasek has championed innovative investments in emerging markets, focusing on critical areas such as financial inclusion, healthcare, agriculture, and climate change.Full episodeAsha Mehta, Managing Partner & CIO at Global Delta CapitalAsha Mehta is a visionary leader at the intersection of impact and investment, with a deep commitment to unlocking the untapped potential in emerging and frontier markets. As the managing partner and CIO of Global Delta Capital, a US-based equity long-only investment manager, Asha and her team harness the power of capital to fuel social and economic development across international, emerging, and frontier markets.Her work combines systematic investing in publicly listed equities with a strong focus on generating both alpha and measurable impact.Full episodeMonica Brand Engel, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Quona CapitalMonica is an impact pioneer with a specialized focus on financial inclusion in emerging and frontier markets. Through Quona Capital, she leads investments in micro, small, and medium-sized businesses to drive economic growth and provide solutions to underserved and underbanked communities.Quona focuses on innovative fintech solutions that bridge the financial infrastructure gap in these regions. By investing in digital payments, tailored lending platforms, accessible insurance, and neo-banking services, Quona enables millions of people to access financial tools previously unavailable to them. Her investments in emerging markets center on creating sustainable financial products that cater to the unique needs of local populations.Full episode—Connect with SRI360°:Sign up for the free weekly email updateVisit the SRI360° PODCASTVisit the SRI360° WEBSITEFollow SRI360° on XFollow SRI360° on FACEBOOK

Chinese President Xi Jinping lays out the priorities for the next phase of urban development in the country (01:04). China's GDP grows 5.3 percent in the first half of the year (06:38). The Tianzhou-9 cargo craft docks with China's space station (11:17).

VOV1 - Giai đoạn 2020-2025, hoạt động xuất khẩu duy trì đà tăng trưởng với tốc độ bình quân khoảng 10%/năm, đóng góp quan trọng vào GDP, đưa Việt Nam vào nhóm 20 nền kinh tế XK hàng đầu thế giới, kim ngạch XNK năm 2025 ước đạt trên 800 tỷ USD, thặng dư thương mại duy trì mức cao.

Stocks hold steady as tariff uncertainty continues. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains how policy deferrals, earnings resilience and forward guidance are driving the market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing why stocks remain so resilient. It's Monday, July 14th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Why has the equity market been resilient in the face of new tariff announcements? Well first, the import cost exposure for S&P 500 industries is more limited given the deferrals and exemptions still in place like the USMCA compliant imports from Mexico. Second, the higher tariff rates recently announced on several trading partners are generally not perceived to be the final rates as negotiations progress. I continue to believe these tariffs will ultimately end up looking like a 10 percent consumption tax on imports that generate significant revenue for the Treasury. And finally, many companies pre-stocked inventory before the tariffs were levied and so the higher priced goods have not yet flowed through the cost of goods sold. Furthermore, with the market's tariffs concerns having peaked in early April, the market is looking forward and focused on the data it can measure. On that score, the dramatic v-shaped rebound in earnings revisions breadth for the S&P 500 has been a fundamental tailwind that justifies the equity rally since April in the face of continued trade and macro uncertainty. This gauge is one of our favorites for predicting equity prices and it troughed at -25 percent in mid-April. It's now at +3 percent. The sectors with the most positive earnings revisions breadth relative to the S&P 500 are Financials, Industrials and Software — three sectors we continue to recommend due to this dynamic. The other more recent development helping to support equities is the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. While this Bill does not provide incremental fiscal spending to support the economy or lower the statutory tax rate, it does lower the cash earnings tax rates for companies that spend heavily on both R&D and Capital Goods.Our Global Tax Team believes we could see cash tax rates fall from 20 percent today back toward the 13 percent level that existed before some of these benefits from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that expired in 2022. This benefit is also likely to jump start what has been an anemic capital spending cycle for corporate America, which could drive both higher GDP and revenue growth for the companies that provide the type of equipment that falls under this category of spending. Meanwhile, the Foreign-Derived Intangible Income is a tax incentive that benefits U.S. companies earning income from foreign markets. It was designed to encourage companies to keep their intellectual property in the U.S. rather than moving it to countries with lower tax rates. This deduction was scheduled to decrease in 2026, which would have raised the effective tax rate by approximately 3 percent. That risk has been eliminated in the Big Beautiful Bill. Finally, the Digital Service Tax imposed on online companies that operate overseas may be reduced. Late last month, Canada announced that it would rescind its Digital Service Tax on the U.S. in anticipation of a mutually beneficial comprehensive trade arrangement with the U.S. This would be a major windfall for online companies and some see the potential for more countries, particularly in Europe, to follow Canada's lead as trade negotiations with the U.S. continue. Bottom line, while uncertainty around tariffs remains high, there are many other positive drivers for earnings growth over the next year that could more than offset any headwinds from these policies. This suggests the recent rally in stocks is justified and that investors may not be as complacent as some are fearing. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

Tomorrow Rachel Reeves will deliver her big speech in the City. The annual Mansion House address is a chance for the Chancellor to set out her vision for the British economy. But amid a gloomy set of economic indicators (including two consecutive monthly GDP contractions) it is difficult to see what good news she can offer.Westminster would be alive with speculation about what she might announce – initially, there was talk of reforms to cash ISAs; now, attention has turned to the prospect of Reeves promising a ‘new Big Bang' by slashing regulation on financial services – however everyone is busy trying to work out who are the ‘working people' the Labour government has pledged not to raise taxes for?Are they – as Heida Alexander argued over the weekend – ‘people on modest incomes'? Or, as Darren Jones suggested today, ‘anyone that gets a payslip, basically'? That is quite a difference in definition – so who exactly is a ‘working person'?James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons.Produced by Oscar Edmondson.We are hosting a Coffee House Shots live tomorrow (15th July) at The Emmanuel Centre in Westminster. Join Tim Shipman, Michael Gove and Isabel Hardman to debate: Are the Tories toast? Click here for tickets.For more Spectator podcasts, go to spectator.co.uk/podcasts.Contact us: podcast@spectator.co.uk

Read Ted's piece in Compact Magazine here: https://www.compactmag.com/.../americas-exploding-debt-bomb/ From the article:   "The numbers are grim. The debt-to-GDP ratio has remained above 120 percent since 2020, higher than it was at the end of World War II. The national debt is set to hit $40 trillion in 2026, up from $530 billion in 1975. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for everything from mortgages to business loans, has climbed from a pandemic low of 0.6 percent to more than 4.5 percent, driving up the cost of credit across the board, pinching ordinary Americans in the form of rising housing costs and inaccessible credit. Bond yields have continued to rise even after Trump softened or paused some of his tariffs. "   Check out our new bi-weekly series, "The Crisis Papers" here: https://www.patreon.com/bitterlakepresents/shop Thank you guys again for taking the time to check this out. We appreciate each and everyone of you. If you have the means, and you feel so inclined,   BECOME A PATRON! We're creating patron only programing, you'll get bonus content from many of the episodes, and you get MERCH!   Become a patron now https://www.patreon.com/join/BitterLakePresents? Please also like, subscribe, and follow us on these platforms as well, (specially YouTube!)   THANKS Y'ALL   YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG9WtLyoP9QU8sxuIfxk3eg Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Thisisrevolutionpodcast/ Twitter: @TIRShowOakland Instagram: @thisisrevolutionoakland   Read Jason Myles in Sublation Magazine https://www.sublationmag.com/writers/jason-myles   Read Jason Myles in Damage Magazine https://damagemag.com/2023/11/07/the-man-who-sold-the-world/   Read Jason in Unaligned here: https://substack.com/home/post/p-161586946...   Read, "We're All Sellouts Now" here: https://benburgis.substack.com/.../all-we-ever-wanted-was...

//The Wire//2100Z July 14, 2025////ROUTINE////BLUF: WHITE HOUSE LOOKS TO TARIFF RUSSIA AS PEACE TALKS STAGNATE. FLOODING CONTINUES IN TEXAS AS MORE RAINFALL ARRIVES.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------HomeFront-Kentucky: On Sunday, a shooting was reported in Lexington at the Richmond Road Baptist Church after a brief police pursuit. Local authorities state that Guy House briefly engaged a police officer near the Blue Grass Airport during a traffic stop, wounding the officer in the initial incident. House then fled the scene, entering the Church that was located adjacent to the airport. Upon entry, House murdered two people, and wounded several others. House was engaged by pursuing officers, and was killed at the scene.Texas: Following last week's devastating floods, heavy rainfall returned over the weekend to the same area. Roughly 6-10 inches of rain fell throughout central Texas, and more precipitation is expected throughout the week. Search and Rescue operations have been halted a few times due to flooding risks re-emerging throughout the region.Washington D.C. - Relations with Russia have deteriorated following efforts by the White House to end the war in Ukraine falling flat. This morning President Trump stated that the United States is looking to implement a tariff of 100% on Russian goods if a peace deal is not reached in 50 days.This afternoon, the Pentagon awarded xAI's Grok a $200 million contract to integrate the LLM throughout the defense community.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Russia is already the most heavily-sanctioned nation on Earth, with very little trade being undertaken between the United States and Russia. American imports of Russian goods amount to roughly $3.5 billion per year, which (for context) is roughly 10 times less than the GDP of Vermont. Consequently, engaging in a trade spat with Russia is unlikely to yield the intended effect.Analyst: S2A1Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground//END REPORT//

Today's show discusses Trump's just passed $5 trillion tax cut. The four big lies about the Trump cuts are debunked: why the cuts won't 'pay for themselves'; why the total is at least $5 trillion+ and not the official $3 trillion estimate reported by the media; why the cuts won't add 1-2% to GDP or raise wages and create jobs as the govt claims; and why they'll result in deficits and debt over the coming decade far more than the $3.3 trillion the Trump administration and mainstream media are telling us. The show summarizes the $22 trillion taxes cut from 2001 to 2025 by presidents Bush, Obama, Biden and Trump, and how that's resulted in US budget deficits now averaging $2 trillion a year, a $38 trillion US national debt, and interest payments of more than $1 trillion/yr paid to wealthy US and foreign bondholders of that debt. Why Trump's tax cuts represent a continuation of Neoliberal fiscal policy on steroids. (For a published article on this subject, go to Jack Rasmus's blog at http://jackrasmus.com or to Counterpunch, LA Progressive or Z blogs).    

Today, I want to talk about the fact that living in a place of chronic stress accelerates aging, and nobody wants that.About the Host:Melissa is an Integrative Health Practitioner and a Board Designated Trainer of NLP, Time Line Therapy®, Hypnotherarpy, and NLP Results Coaching, helping people get to the root cause of their health issues and then get lasting results. Melissa neither diagnoses nor cures but helps bring your body back into balance by helping discover your “toxic load” and then removing the toxins. Melissa offers functional medicine lab testing that helps you “see inside” to know exactly what is going on, and then provides a personalized wellness protocol using natural herbs and supplements. Melissa's business is 100% virtual – the lab tests are mailed directly to your home and she specializes in holding your hand and guiding the way to healing so that you don't have to figure it all out on your own.Melissa has launched Amplify Impact Academy, with business partner, Billie Aadmi and together they train other coaches, practitioners and counsellors in the 4 mind-body healing modalities mentioned above, giving them powerful tools to use with clients to get results with greater ease, speed and grace. These courses teach life skills and anyone can take them, if you wanto be a better leader, parent, partner, be empowered in your own life, these courses are for you!Melissa's passion project is her non-profit, Girls Matter (www.girlsmatter.ca), breaking the poverty cycle 1 girl, 1 family, 1 village at a time. The mission is to keep girls in school and stop teenage marriages, because school isn't free in over 50 countries around the world and when parents have to make the difficult choices of feeding their kids or paying for school, food wins. And when the girls hit their teen years, they will often be married off so that someone else becomes responsible to feed them. Keeping girls in school instead creates a generational ripple effect, because an educated girl is more than twice as likely to ensure her on children are educated. Educating girls also grows the GDP of countries, when they get into the workforce. This is how together, we can change the world. Guests on this podcast are invited to donate to this important cause. Learn more here in this short video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R3-xqzJLZW14om1PhFClcU_oRSZ8zgip/view?usp=share_linkMelissa is the winner of the 2024 Women in Podcasting Awards in the “inspiration & motivation” category and the 2021 & 2022 Quality Care Award by Business From The Heart and is also the recipient of the Alignable “Local Business Person of the Year “Award 2022, 2023 & 2024 for Whistler.Melissa has been featured at a number of Health & Wellness Summits, such as the Health, Wealth & Wisdom Summit, The Power To Profit Summit, The Feel Fan-freaking-tas-tic Summit, the Aim Higher Summit and many more! She has also guested on over 90 different podcasts teaching people about the importance of prioritizing our health and how to get started. Linktree: https://linktr.ee/yourguidedhealthjourney Thanks for listening!If you know somebody who would benefit from this message, or would be an awesome addition to our community, please share it using the social media buttons on this page.Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a note in the comment section...

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's inflation data, GDP, the effect of the Big Beautiful Bill on the 10T and could QE be an option to cutting rates. 

Gurugram contributes close to 60% to Haryana's GDP but facilities are nowhere close to its status. A look at what went wrong for city's infra after promising start in 1970s.  

Scott Brighton didn't set out to revolutionize charitable giving in America. But after witnessing his wife struggle to run a nonprofit with just three staff members—and discovering that charitable giving had remained stubbornly flat at 2.5% of GDP for half a century—he knew something had to change. As CEO of Bonterra, one of the social sector's most influential technology companies, Brighton is now pursuing an audacious goal: lifting charitable giving to 3% of GDP by 2033. That seemingly modest increase would double total giving, unlocking over $580 billion in new funding. But optimizing donation amounts is just one piece of Brighton's broader strategy. He's also transforming Bonterra into a “Tinder for nonprofits”—a platform that helps nonprofits and funders discover each other, then uses AI to amplify their capacity to build lasting relationships. Scott joins me now to discuss this bold vision, the surprising insights from Bonterra's latest data, and why he believes AI will be the great equalizer for resource-strapped nonprofits.

Dan and Guy are joined by Stephanie Link, Chief Investment Strategist and Portfolio Manager at Hightower Advisors. They explore topics like consumer spending, delinquency rates, job market stability, and the impact of tariffs on the economy. Stephanie shares her optimistic view on U.S. GDP growth, earnings expectations, and the performance of various sectors including financials, industrials, and consumer discretionary. The conversation also touches upon the implications of deregulation, the role of AI in corporate profitability, and specific stock picks like Boeing, Walmart, and Target. They debate the effects of the weak U.S. dollar and the regulatory environment on big tech companies such as Google and Apple. Throughout the discussion, Stephanie underscores her belief in the resilience of U.S. companies and the importance of focusing on best-in-class stocks. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

On July 4th, President Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law - and it's a game changer for the real estate economy! In this special, bonus episode, Patrick and Shannon break down NAR's key wins in the bill that support homeowners, drive investment in housing supply and strengthen the real estate sector, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the nation's GDP.

One of the things that stress does is it impacts your mood, and you can feel more irritable.About the Host:Melissa is an Integrative Health Practitioner and a Board Designated Trainer of NLP, Time Line Therapy®, Hypnotherarpy, and NLP Results Coaching, helping people get to the root cause of their health issues and then get lasting results. Melissa neither diagnoses nor cures but helps bring your body back into balance by helping discover your “toxic load” and then removing the toxins. Melissa offers functional medicine lab testing that helps you “see inside” to know exactly what is going on, and then provides a personalized wellness protocol using natural herbs and supplements. Melissa's business is 100% virtual – the lab tests are mailed directly to your home and she specializes in holding your hand and guiding the way to healing so that you don't have to figure it all out on your own.Melissa has launched Amplify Impact Academy, with business partner, Billie Aadmi and together they train other coaches, practitioners and counsellors in the 4 mind-body healing modalities mentioned above, giving them powerful tools to use with clients to get results with greater ease, speed and grace. These courses teach life skills and anyone can take them, if you wanto be a better leader, parent, partner, be empowered in your own life, these courses are for you!Melissa's passion project is her non-profit, Girls Matter (www.girlsmatter.ca), breaking the poverty cycle 1 girl, 1 family, 1 village at a time. The mission is to keep girls in school and stop teenage marriages, because school isn't free in over 50 countries around the world and when parents have to make the difficult choices of feeding their kids or paying for school, food wins. And when the girls hit their teen years, they will often be married off so that someone else becomes responsible to feed them. Keeping girls in school instead creates a generational ripple effect, because an educated girl is more than twice as likely to ensure her on children are educated. Educating girls also grows the GDP of countries, when they get into the workforce. This is how together, we can change the world. Guests on this podcast are invited to donate to this important cause. Learn more here in this short video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R3-xqzJLZW14om1PhFClcU_oRSZ8zgip/view?usp=share_linkMelissa is the winner of the 2024 Women in Podcasting Awards in the “inspiration & motivation” category and the 2021 & 2022 Quality Care Award by Business From The Heart and is also the recipient of the Alignable “Local Business Person of the Year “Award 2022, 2023 & 2024 for Whistler.Melissa has been featured at a number of Health & Wellness Summits, such as the Health, Wealth & Wisdom Summit, The Power To Profit Summit, The Feel Fan-freaking-tas-tic Summit, the Aim Higher Summit and many more! She has also guested on over 90 different podcasts teaching people about the importance of prioritizing our health and how to get started. Linktree: https://linktr.ee/yourguidedhealthjourney Thanks for listening!If you know somebody who would benefit from this message, or would be an awesome addition to our community, please share it using the social media buttons on this page.Do you have some feedback or questions about this episode? Leave a note in the comment section...

In a conversation about visionary leadership, M-PESA CEO Sitoyo Lopokoiyit speaks with impact investor and Acumen CEO Jacqueline Novogratz about how he grew a nascent mobile payment service into Africa's largest fintech platform — which now handles nearly 60 percent of Kenya's GDP and more than a billion dollars in daily transactions. They draw on insights from both of their careers to explore how trust, innovation and moral imagination can unlock opportunity in overlooked places.Want to help shape TED's shows going forward? Fill out our survey!Learn more about TED Next at ted.com/futureyouFor the Idea Search application, go to ted.com/ideasearch Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Willy was joined once again by renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman for the Most Insightful Hour in CRE. They unpacked key takeaways from the Q2 Linneman Letter, including employment data, tariffs, GDP, oil, geopolitical impacts, supply chain issues, the Fed, single and multifamily supply, hot markets, and much more. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Strategy team and Aerospace & Defense Analyst Ross Law unpack what a reshaped defense industry means for sustainability, ethics and long-term investment strategy.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ross Law: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ross Law from Morgan Stanley's European Aerospace and Defense team.Arushi Agarwal: And I'm Arushi Agarwal from the European Sustainability Research Team.Ross Law: Today, a topic that's rapidly defining the boundaries of sustainable investing and technological leadership – the use of AI in defense.It's Tuesday, July 8th at 3pm in London. At the recent NATO summit, member countries decided to boost their core defense spending target from 2 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP. This big jump is sure to spark a wave of innovation in defense, particularly in AI and military technology. It's clear that Europe is focusing on rearmament with AI playing a major role. In fact, AI is revolutionizing everything from unmanned systems and cyber defense to simulation training and precision targeting. It's changing the game for how nations prepare for – and engage in – conflict. And with all these changes come serious challenges. Investors, policy makers and technologists are facing some tough questions that sit at the intersection of two of Morgan Stanley's four key themes: The Multipolar World and Tech Diffusion.So, Arushi, to set the stage, how is the concept of sustainability evolving to include national security and defense, particularly in Europe?Arushi Agarwal: You know, Ross, it's fascinating to see how much this space has evolved over the past year. Geopolitical tensions have really pushed national security much higher on the sustainability agenda. We're seeing a structural shift in sentiment towards defense investments. While historically defense companies were largely excluded by sustainability funds, we're now seeing asset managers revisiting these exclusions, especially around conventional and nuclear weapons. Some are even launching thematic funds, specifically focused on security and resilience.However, in the absence of standard methodologies to assess weapon related exposures, evaluate sector-specific ESG risks and determine transparency, there is no clear consensus on what sustainability focused managers can hold. Greater policy focus has created the need to identify a long-term approach to investing in this sector, one that is cognizant of ethical issues. Investors are now increasingly asking whether rapid technological integration might allow for a more forward-looking, risk aware approach to investing in national security.Ross Law: So, it's no news that Europe has historically underspent on defense. Now, the spending goal is moving to 3.5 percent of GDP to try and catch up. Our estimates suggest this could mean an additional $200 billion per year in additional spend – with a focus on equipment over personnel, at least for the time being. With this new focus, how is AI shaping the European rearmament strategy?Arushi Agarwal: Well, AI appears to be at the core of EU's 800 billion euro rearmament plan. The commission has been quite clear that escalating tensions have not only led to a new arms race but also provoked a global technological race. Now to think about it, AI, quantum, biotech, robotics, and hypersonic are key inputs not only for long-term economic growth, but also for military pre-eminence.In our base case, we estimate that total NATO military spend into AI applications will potentially more than double to $112 billion by 2030. This is at a 4 percent AI investment allocation rate. If this allocation rate increases to 10 percent as anticipated by European deep tech firms, then NATOs AI military spend could grow sixfold to $306 billion by 2030 in our bull case.So, Ross, you were at the Paris Air Show recently where companies demonstrated their latest product capabilities. Which AI applications are leading the way in defense right now? Ross Law: Yeah, it was really quite eye-opening. We've identified nine key AI applications, reshaping defense, and our Application Readiness Radar shows that Cybersecurity followed by Unmanned Systems exhibit the highest level of preparedness from a public and private investment perspective.Cybersecurity is a major priority due to increased proliferation of cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns, and this technology can be used for both defensive and offensive measures. Unmanned systems are also really taking off, no pun intended, mainly driven by the rise in drone warfare that's reshaping the battlefield in Ukraine.At the Paris Airshow, we saw demonstrations of “Wingman” crewed and uncrewed aircraft. There have also been several public and private partnerships in this area within our coverage. Another area gaining traction is simulation and war gaming. As defense spending increases and potentially leads to more military personnel, we see this theme in high demand in the coming years.Arushi Agarwal: And how are European Aerospace and Defense companies positioning themselves in terms of AI readiness?Ross Law: Well, they're really making significant advancements. We've assessed AI technology readiness for our A&D companies across six different verticals: the number of applications; dual-use capabilities; AI pricing power; responsible AI policy; and partnerships on both external and internal product categories.What's really interesting is that European A&D companies have higher pricing power relative to the U.S. counterparts, and a higher percentage are both enablers and adopters of AI. To accelerate AI integration, these companies are increasingly partnering with government research arms, leading software firms, as well as peers and private players.Arushi Agarwal: And some of these same technologies can also be used for civilian purposes. Could you share some examples with us?Ross Law: The dual use potential is really significant. Various companies in our coverage are using their AI capabilities for civilian applications across multiple domains. For example, geospatial capabilities can also be used for wildfire management and tracking deforestation. Machine learning can be used for maritime shipping and port surveillance. But switching gears slightly, if we talk about the regulatory developments that are emerging in Europe to address defense modernization, what does this mean, Arushi, for society, the industry and investors?Arushi Agarwal: There's quite a lot happening on the regulatory front. The European Commission is working on a defense omnibus simplification proposal aimed at speeding up defense investments in the EU. It's planning to publish a guidance notice on how defense investment will fit within the sustainable finance framework. It's also making changes to its sustainability reporting directive. If warranted, the commission will make additional adjustments to reflect the needs of the defense industry in its sustainability reporting obligations. The Sustainable Fund Reform is another important development. While the sustainability fund regulation doesn't prohibit investment into the defense sector, the commission is seeking to provide clarification on how defense investment goals sit within a sustainability framework.Additionally at the European Security Summit in June, the European Defense Commissioner indicated that a roadmap focusing on the modernization of European defense will be published in autumn. This will have a special focus on AI and quantum technologies. For investors, whilst exclusions easing has started to take place, pickup in individual positioning has been slow. As investors ramp up on the sector, we believe these regulatory developments can serve as catalysts, providing clear demand and trend signals for the sector.Ross Law: So finally, in this context, how can companies and investors navigate these ethical considerations responsibly?Arushi Agarwal: So, in the note we highlight that AI risk management requires the ability to tackle two types of challenges. First, technical challenges, which can be mitigated by embedding boundaries and success criteria directly into the design of the AI model. For example, training AI systems to refuse harmful requests. Second challenges are more open-ended and ambiguous set of challenges that relate to coordinating non-proliferation among countries and preventing misuse by bad actors. This set of challenges requires continuous interstate dialogue and cooperation rather than purely technical fixes.From an investor perspective, closer corporate engagement will be key to navigating these debates. Ensuring firms have clear documentation of their algorithms and decision-making processes, human in the loop systems, transparency around data sets used to train the AI models are some of the engagement points we mention in our note.Ultimately, I think the key is balance. On the one hand, we have to recognize the legitimate security needs that defense technologies address. And on the other hand, there's the need to ensure appropriate safeguards and oversight.Ross Law: Arushi, thanks for taking the time to talk.Arushi Agarwal: It was great speaking with you, Ross,Ross Law: And thank you all for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

-- On the Show: -- Trump-era cuts to the National Weather Service may have contributed to deadly Texas floods that killed over 80 people, including 21 children -- GOP Rep. Jason Smith misuses the word “exponential” to hype a minor GDP increase, revealing MAGA's ignorance of basic math -- Elon Musk launches a new “America Party” to directly challenge Trump and threatens to splinter MAGA from within -- Trump attacks Elon Musk over his third-party launch, calling him a “train wreck” and claiming credit for killing the EV mandate -- Trump delivers confused July 4th speech full of lies as Melania appears visibly concerned by his rambling -- A deadly measles outbreak tied to RFK Jr., Trump's anti-vax Health Secretary, becomes a political and public health nightmare -- Trump's tariff plan set to explode July 9 risks global trade chaos, higher prices, and economic blowback -- Trump uses antisemitic slur “shylocks” and then denies knowing it's offensive despite centuries of bigoted use -- Trump fumbles basic facts and timelines during a press conference, showing alarming confusion while aides bail him out -- Joe Rogan criticizes Trump's immigration raids on migrant workers, signaling a slow break from MAGA politics -- On the Bonus Show: DOJ says there's no Epstein client list, Trump orders tourists to pay more at national parks, Candace Owens says Trump told her to stop claiming Macron's wife is a man, and much more...

In this thought-provoking **Market Mondays clip**, Rashad Bilal sits down with futurist 19 Keys to explore the transformative power of technology in today's world. The conversation dives deep into how artificial intelligence and quantum computing are shifting not only the economy but also the very way we think and live.19 Keys shares his compelling thesis on the current state of technology: imagine a world without the internet—it's almost impossible now. Soon, AI will be just as integrated into our lives. From boosting GDP as the workforce changes, to democratizing computer science around the globe, AI's reach is undeniable. But that power comes with both opportunities and dangers.The discussion moves into the concept of “cognitive surplus”—as AI takes over mundane tasks, it frees up human minds for deeper, creative thinking and innovation. 19 Keys argues we're entering a new cognitive renaissance era, where the ability to process, synthesize, and defend our thoughts is the new gold. In a landscape flooded with distractions and manipulation, especially in communities facing stress and limited resources, cognitive security becomes just as important as technological literacy.But it's not all utopia: 19 Keys also acknowledges AI's double-edged nature. While it can spur empowerment and renaissance, it's also a tool for psychological warfare—able to influence beliefs and manipulate vulnerable populations. For those able to harness both technology and mental discipline, however, a new age of enlightenment is on the horizon.Whether you see AI as a liberator or a threat, this clip offers crucial insights for anyone wanting to prepare for the rapidly changing future. Are you ready to embrace the cognitive renaissance?*Timestamps:* (If you'd like detailed timestamps, let us know in the comments!)*Key Takeaways:* How AI is redefining what it means to be human The risks of cognitive manipulation in the era of psychological warfare Why deep thinking and mental resilience are becoming our most valuable assets The real opportunities for renaissance and innovation, especially within marginalized communitiesDon't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more powerful insights from the Market Mondays team!*#MarketMondays #19Keys #RashadBilal #ArtificialIntelligence #CognitiveRenaissance #FutureOfTech #TechTalk #FinancialFreedom #BlackExcellence #AIRevolution*Our Sponsors:* Check out PNC Bank: https://www.pnc.comSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/marketmondays/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy