Podcasts about gdp

In this week's show Patrick Gray and Adam Boileau discuss the week's cybersecurity news, including: The KK Park scam compound in Myanmar gets blasted with actual dynamite China sentences more scammers TO DEATH While Singapore is opting to lash them with the cane Chinese security firm KnownSec leaks a bunch of documents Necromancy continues on NSO Group, with a Trump associate in charge OWASP freshens up the Top 10, you won't believe what's number three! This week's episode is sponsored by Thinkst Canary. Big bird Haroon Meer joins and, as usual, makes a good point. If you're going to trust a vendor to do something risky like put a box on your network, they have an obligation to explain how they make that safe. Thinkst has a /security page that does exactly that. So why do we let Palo Alto and Fortinet get away with “trust me, bro”? This episode is also available on Youtube. Show notes Myanmar Junta Dynamites Scam Hub in PR Move as Global Pressure Grows China sentences 5 Myanmar scam kingpins to death | The Record from Recorded Future News Law passed for scammers, mules to be caned after victims in Singapore lose almost $4b since 2020 | The Straits Times KnownSec breach: What we know so far. - NetAskari Risky Bulletin: Another Chinese security firm has its data leaked Inside Congress Live The Government Shutdown Is a Ticking Cybersecurity Time Bomb | WIRED Former Trump official named NSO Group executive chairman | The Record from Recorded Future News Short-term renewal of cyber information sharing law appears in bill to end shutdown | The Record from Recorded Future News Jaguar Land Rover hack hurt the U.K.'s GDP, Bank of England says Monetary Policy Report - November 2025 | Bank of England SonicWall says state-linked actor behind attacks against cloud backup service | Cybersecurity Dive Japanese media giant Nikkei reports Slack breach exposing employee and partner records | The Record from Recorded Future News "Intel sues former employee for allegedly stealing confidential data" Post by @campuscodi.risky.biz — Bluesky Introduction - OWASP Top 10:2025 RC1

Stephen Grootes speaks to Duncan Pieterse, Director General of the National Treasury, and SARS Commissioner Edward Kieswetter about the Mid-Term Budget delivered by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana. Pieterse discusses the budget’s key priorities, including fiscal consolidation, infrastructure investment, and balancing social spending with economic constraints. He highlights how the measures aim to support South Africa’s GDP growth, strengthen public finances, and create conditions for sustainable economic recovery in a country where the economy has struggled with low growth, high unemployment, and persistent fiscal pressures. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Don't panic—prepare! According to multiple billionaire investors, a massive market crash is "due" and could be the biggest in history. Learn the five common, historical warning signs that spell out C.R.A.S.H., why record-high stock valuations and AI hype are a dangerous bubble, and the four non-doomsday steps you must take right now to protect your wealth and cash in on the coming collapse! BEST MOMENTS "This always happens before a major market crash. The five common historical warning signs that precede, sometimes, the biggest crashes in history." "Currently as I speak to you, we are at 221% on the Warren Buffett Indicator, which means that the US stock market value is 221% of the GDP of the entire nation... it is a record high." "Even if you bought at the peak before each of the biggest crashes [in history], you'd still be over 6% a year compounded in the markets in the stock market... as long as you didn't sell." Exclusive community & resources:   For more EXCLUSIVE & unfiltered content to make, manage & multiply more money, join our private online education platform: Money.School →⁠ ⁠⁠https://money.school⁠   And if you'd like to meet 7 & 8 figure entrepreneurs, & scale to 6, 7 or 8 figures in your business or personal income, join us at our in-person Money Maker Summit Event (including EXCLUSIVE millionaire guests/masterminds sessions)  →⁠ ⁠⁠https://robmoore.live/mms⁠ 

In this insightful episode, Dr. Niraj Poudyal, an advocate for equity and inclusion in Nepal, breaks down complex economic and social realities shaping the nation's development. Known for his ability to simplify intricate ideas, Dr. Poudel discusses why some regions in Nepal grow faster than others, the real meaning of a 4–5% GDP growth rate, and why economic growth doesn't always translate into better living standards. He explains how state and private partnerships can drive progress, yet corruption and unequal policies continue to hinder growth. The discussion explores how per capita income can differ dramatically even when GDP is similar — revealing the unseen inequalities within economic systems. Dr. Poudel also reflects on national pride, urging citizens to respect the flag, map, and anthem, and to cultivate a more positive and proactive national mindset. He touches on migration trends, border issues, and how developing countries can learn from global economic patterns without losing cultural values. This episode offers a rare mix of economics, governance, and social psychology, helping viewers understand Nepal's growth story from a deeply human and practical perspective. #NepalEconomy #DrNirajPoudel #CorruptionInNepal #EconomicGrowth #NepalPodcast #DevelopmentInequality #MigrationNepal #EquityAndInclusion GET CONNECTED WITH Dr. Niraj Poudel: LinkedIn - https://np.linkedin.com/in/niraj-poudyal-phd-12b85b159  

The Silent Crisis Changing Everything: US Fertility Rate {1.6} vs. Replacement Rate {2.1)!Do you ever wonder what happens when the world quietly slips below the point of population replacement? It's not a dystopian fantasy—it's the reality unfolding right now across the developed world.In this episode of Do You Ever Wonder, we tackle The Birthrate Bomb, an unprecedented demographic crisis with profound consequences for every facet of life. Our guest is Elliot Daigneault, an entrepreneur who has closely studied the growing crisis.The numbers are stark: the required replacement rate is {2.1} children per woman, yet the United States fertility rate has plummeted to {1.6}. This gap is creating aging societies, shrinking consumer bases, and an economic system built on perpetual growth facing an existential reckoning.Inside the Episode: Economic Collapse, Real Estate Chaos, & the Workforce CrisisWe dive deep into the real-world consequences of this fertility rate collapse:Real Estate Market Disaster? What happens to housing demand and property values when there are fewer young people to buy homes? We explore how a declining workforce and aging demographics could permanently alter the real estate market.The Future of Business: How can businesses survive and thrive amidst crippling labor shortages? We analyze the impact on wages, automation, and the long-term viability of industries that rely on a growing talent pool.Economic Reckoning: Can our pension systems, Social Security, and national debt withstand a rapidly shrinking base of workers? We break down the threat to the overall economy and the end of predictable GDP growth.The Million-Dollar Question: Is Immigration the Solution?Can sustained immigration solve the demographic deficit and save our economy? Or does the answer require a completely new approach to family, work, and community life?Is the future one of innovation and adaptation… or quiet decline?Don't Miss a Moment!If this episode made you think, please hit the LIKE button!SUBSCRIBE to the Do You Ever Wonder channel for weekly deep dives into the questions that matter most.

Max reports on the growing cracks in the financial markets and the unprecedented lengths the Federal Reserve has already gone to in order to stabilize the global financial system. The U.S. is heading toward a full-blown liquidity crisis that threatens to seize up the financial markets. The situation is worsening daily at this point and Trump’s erratic policy decisions are contributing to the destabilization. View the charts related to this episode. Chapters Intro: 00:00:37 Post Show Musings: 00:19:33 Outro: 00:39:38 Resources Challenger, Gray & Christmas: Challenger Report: September 2025 MacroMicro: US - Hourly Wage Growth by Wage Level MacroMicro: US - Consumer Price Index (CPI) MacroMicro: US - Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (ON RRP) Trading Volume MacroMicro: US - Treasury Yields vs. Fed Funds Rate MacroMicro: US - Federal Fund Interest Rates MacroMicro: US - Fed Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements (ON RRP) Trading Volume MacroMicro: US - Fed's Balance Sheet - Liabilities Fortune: Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says Video: MTN: Trump in Full Blown Panic as Market Collapse Imminent Track Star: Zohran Mamdani Become A UNFTR Member Subscribe to our YouTube Channel Follow Us On Social: Bluesky, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok Share the 5NN -- If you like #UNFTR, please leave us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts and Spotify: unftr.com/rate and follow us on Facebook, Bluesky, TikTok and Instagram at @UNFTRpod. Visit us online at unftr.com. Join our Discord at unftr.com/discord. Become a member at unftr.com/memberships. Buy yourself some Unf*cking Coffee at shop.unftr.com. Visit our bookshop.org page at bookshop.org/shop/UNFTRpod to find the full UNFTR book list, and find book recommendations from our Unf*ckers at bookshop.org/lists/unf-cker-book-recommendations. Access the UNFTR Musicless feed by following the instructions at unftr.com/accessibility. Unf*cking the Republic is produced by 99 and engineered by Manny Faces Media (mannyfacesmedia.com). Original music is by Tom McGovern (tommcgovern.com). The show is hosted by Max and distributed by 99.Support the show: https://www.unftr.com/membershipsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Register here to attend the live virtual event "How to Scale Your Portfolio, with Tenanted Cash Flowing, New Construction Properties" on Thursday, November 13th at 8pm Eastern. Keith discusses Billie Eilish's views on billionaires and contrasts her stance with Grant Cardone's, emphasizing the value billionaires bring.  Hear about the Fed's decision to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), predicting lower interest rates.  GRE Investment Coach, Naresh Vissa, joins the conversation to highlight the benefits of new build properties, such as lower maintenance and higher tenant quality, and mentions a 10% cashback incentive from builders.  Resources: Register for the event at GREwebinars.com Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/579 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com or text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:00   Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, should billionaires even exist? Why do so many people think that interest rates of all types are headed even lower than as a real estate investor, how to identify and capitalize on an opportunity in this era? It's something that I've never seen before. Today on get rich education   Speaker 1  0:27   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:13   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:29   Welcome to GRE from flatiron, Manhattan to Flatbush, Brooklyn, across New York City and 188 world nations. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's the longest federal government shutdown in US history. This whole thing has now lasted longer than most gym memberships. I guess the GDP stands for government doesn't produce, hmm. Before we get into our core investing and real estate content today, Billie Eilish, the singer, recently made some public remarks on whether or not billionaires should even exist. Yeah. Now if you're not familiar with her, Billie Eilish is known for her kind of unique style, sort of these baggy clothes, neon hair, avant garde fashion, and she has a reputation for being outspoken about a lot of things like mental health and body image and environmental issues. Now, in general, I respect people for speaking their mind, whether I agree or not, because a lot of people are just afraid to do that. Let's listen in to this short clip on what she said. You might have heard this because it was pretty widely broadcasted. Eilish spoke after receiving recognition at the Wall Street Journal innovator awards. This is courtesy of the AP. And then I'll come back to comment.   Speaker 2  2:58   We're in a time right now where the world is really, bad and really dark, and people need empathy and help more than kind of ever, especially in our country. And I'd say if you have money, it would be great to use it for good things and maybe give it to some people that need it and love you all, but there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? No hate, but yeah, give your money away. Shorties. Love you guys. Thank you so much.   Speaker 3  3:40   First of all, without explicitly saying it, she's basically referencing how inflation widened the canyon between the haves and the have nots and GRE listeners that have acted have been on the right side of that canyon. I actually want to give Billie Eilish some credit here. Giving is virtuous. That is a good thing. In fact, next month, I plan to discuss the pros and cons of giving here on the show as we approach Christmas. Billie Eilish, she's certainly not a hypocrite either, because she's given away more than $10 million of her estimated $50 million dollar net worth. She's into feeding people and climate initiatives that right there is giving away more than 20% of your net worth, and that is really kind. Now, you heard her say there's a few people in here that have a lot more money than me, and she's right. Mark Zuckerberg was in that room. His net worth of over 200 billion means that his net worth is more than 4000 times greater than Billy eilish's. It sounds loosely like she's. shaming him for not giving away more of his wealth. And I don't know just offhand how much Zuck gives away, but this is where my credit to Billy Eilish stops. I think that it's okay for a person to be a billionaire. I wouldn't question that. I mean, a lot of times it meant that that person was willing to take risks that others would not dare try. A billionaire probably means you're a person of great value, and that you've hired hundreds or 1000s of other people, creating jobs for them. A billionaire has almost certainly created a product that society values. Jeff Bezos pioneered one day delivery. Zuckerberg connects people through his meta platforms. And now I'm not going to say that either one of those billionaires are perfect people. They are flawed, just like you and I. Billionaires probably pay more tax than the average person as well. That supports the infrastructure that you and I and everybody use, like building bridges or creating a fiber optic network. I would expect that a billionaire would be a giver as well. And see, if you're a billionaire, you have more ability to give than the average person does, you can make a greater impact. And see, this is where things really break down and not make sense. So if Billie Eilish is net worth is 50 million, Oh, apparently that's just okay. That's fine with her. But once it gets to 20 times greater than that, which is 1 billion, then it's not okay. So that means the line is drawn somewhere in there. That makes zero sense to me. The ceiling on what you're supposed to have in net worth is between 50 million and 1 billion. Like, I really do not get the logic on that one. And you know, a guest that we've had on the show here, Grant Cardone, whether you like him or not, he has had some on point remarks about these Billy Eilish comments himself to the question that she posited, which is, if you're a billionaire, why are you a billionaire? Cardone's answer is, if you're a pop star, why are you a pop star? Billy said, give your money away. Cardone's response to her is, give your music away. That's some food for thought there. That's my take on the Billy Eilish remarks on whether or not billionaires should exist. And if you want to hear Grant Cardone and I's conversation here on GRE, that was episode 264 the title of it is Keith Weinhold and Grant Cardone 10x your wealth number 264, a lot of listeners like that episode saying something like it was a dream to hear grant and I together for the first time. Like that, their favorite sales trainer on their favorite real estate show. You can listen by either scrolling way back to get rich education episode 264 in your podcatcher, or you can listen directly by going to get rich education.com/ 264,    Keith Weinhold  8:11   now the Fed has said that they are going to slow or end Qt, next month. All right, when Jerome Powell says something like this, what does that really mean to you as an investor? What can you expect ending QT? Well, you probably already know that QE quantitative easing that has the effect of creating dollars. Qt is the opposite. It has the effect of destroying dollars. So if they're ending Qt, this helps keep more dollars around in the future. So ending Qt then, like we expect soon, that really parallels a lower interest rate environment, because see lower rates already make dollars flow more freely. You probably remember the analogy that I introduced to you on the show earlier this year about how lower rates are like lowering the height of a dam wall. It makes it easier for water to flow, so then lowering rates makes it easier for money to flow, and that's because low savings account rates make people get money out of those vehicles. Okay, that's that low dam wall and low borrowing rates make that money flow as well. People will unlock dollars if rates are low, late last year, the Fed dropped rates a full 1% then they didn't make any moves for a while, until late this year, they've now dropped rates another half a percent. That's the environment that we're in. So then more QE and less QT. That further eases the flow of dollars, and it correlates with even lower rates that are coming in the future. Now it doesn't mean that they will. I'm not saying that they certainly will. There is just that tendency, that correlation. So we had pandemic era QE there about five years ago, that ended as we moved to Qt in 2022 and now what we're doing is unwinding Qt, moving back toward more flow, and it surely gets more technical than that. Ending Qt allows the Fed to expand its balance sheet again. Treasuries and mortgage backed securities, once matured, can now be replaced, and that injects liquidity into the system once again, and that is where we're going. Bank reserves are reaching ample levels again, and there is no need to put liquidity stress on money markets. A lot of these moves are here. What they're here for is to help ease the concerning labor market. It's been almost exactly three years now since chatgpt launched, and a while back, I mentioned how companies were newly interested in hiring the shiny new job that didn't exist before the AI prompt engineer that was one of the hottest jobs. Well, yeah, that was true back in 2023 but not so much. Now. A lot of companies have figured out that the employees that wanted to keep their job, well, they figured out real quick how to be the Ask AI, good questions guy, and we are seeing more layoffs later today, my guest and I will talk about that, and also he's going to make somewhat of a future mortgage rate forecast, or at least talk about the direction that they're going in. I think you're really going to like that. I don't predict rates myself, but sometimes a guest will. That's what's happening today. My point here is that with Qt ending, which again lowers the damn wall height and eases the flow of money, that parallels the fact that we have lower interest rates now than what we had one year ago, and we have lower interest rates now than what we had two years ago. As well, be mindful that you cannot get it all as a real estate investor. You cannot get soaring employment and low interest rates together. You cannot get those two things together, at least not for long. High employment means high rates. Low employment means low rates. Today's guest, and I will get into that as well.    Keith Weinhold  12:43   Well as we've had lower rates, hence a lower wall height, don't buy property and expect that you'll be able to refi into a lower rate within a year. If it happens, great. Don't buy expecting rents to go up or rates to go down, although many think that will happen. Just enjoy it. If it does, rent vesting has been on the rise lately. Yes, rent vesting. What that means is when you pay rent in the property where you live, and then the only properties that you own are rental properties. Rent vesting makes sense if you live in California, New York City and Boston, since rent to price ratios are so low there, and then you invest your dollars inland, that's how you can live in a high cost place and yet still benefit from cheap rental property and have income streams from them. You might remember that some months ago, I interviewed two listener guests on the show, everyday listeners, just like you, and California based investor and GRE listener, Joshua Fang, told us about his rent vesting. He pays rent in his primary residence, since the rent to price ratio might be three tenths of 1% there and then he owns property in GRE marketplace markets, I think it was Memphis and elsewhere where you're benefiting from, say, eight tenths of 1% that is called rent, vesting, investing in properties that make sense that you buy through GRE marketplace. And remember when Josh told us that passive income gives him time to enjoy life and even stop and watch two lizards for 15 minutes? Oh, what passive income can do. It's the quirky things that you remember. See. The point is that smart people in high cost states are rent vesting, if that's what you've got to do in order to own real assets. Then do it get on the right side, as this difference between the haves and the have nots just keeps expanding. I just did something that you might find interesting over the weekend for the first time in years. I visited that first fourplex building that I ever owned, which is also the first piece of real estate that I ever owned, that blue colored fourplex, and it is still blue. The address of that property is 925 east, 45th court, and it's in Midtown Anchorage. It has never been a pretty neighborhood, and I confirmed that it still is not. It looks a touch worse than when I owned it. I straightened up the curb appeal more than today's owner does. I bought the four Plex over 20 years ago for $295,000 and at that time, on the day that I bought. The total rents were $2,900 because it was 725 per door. I just looked on Zillow. And do you want to guess at its zestimated value today? Yes, it cost 295k back in 2002 and today, the Zestimate is 625k I don't know what today's rents are. My guess is that they're just short of $6,000 for all four units combined, two bed, one bath, 960 square foot units, really plain vanilla, boring looking housing, but it's certainly not like a crime ridden slum. It's just that depressing looking block that's just chock full of disorder and these other four Plex buildings and dumpsters all over the place. But yeah, that's how it all began for me. I visited that building again, and I haven't owned it in a while. I 1031 exchange out of it and into an eight Plex in 2013 if it weren't for that building, you would not be listening to me right now, and you would not have heard of me, because this show wouldn't exist big thanks to the three and a half percent down FHA loan for someone that came from humble means, like me.    Keith Weinhold  17:03   Last month, I did a running race that goes up a ski jump that was pretty cool. It gets so steep that you have to grab onto a cargo net to pull yourself up. It's almost like a rope ladder. I did not win. I got fifth out of 21 competitors in that race. Hey, I like to get out and physically challenge myself. After talking real estate all day, my body weight is up a little. It's currently sitting at 178 pounds. That's 81 kilograms for our European listeners, and it hit its recent bottom of 172 back on the Fourth of July. That's by design. I need to be really leaned out for a big Independence Day race every summer. You know, I'm one of those guys where I still cannot compete with bodybuilders because I'm too lean, and yet I don't win running races because I'm too bulky, so I'm more of an all around guy. I do about seven different sports, and that's exactly how I win nothing and always get like, fifth place or worse. This major mammal has got to keep himself moving, In any case.   Keith Weinhold  18:17   next week here on the show, we'll talk to a Harvard grad. She's super interesting. She used to work at Apple, and then she founded an AI centric property management company so that you can use her platform to self manage and leverage AI. But are we at the point where your tenant would really talk to a chatbot? Would that fly? And if society is there, well then do property management fees and everything start trending towards zero. I'm going to ask her about that. That's next week. As for today, you know, the world series ended about a week ago, and what I did is that I watched 10 commercials during the World Series, and then I jotted down the name of each sponsor, and here's who the World Series advertisers were just in this one segment where I paid attention to them. They're all big brands that you've heard of atnt Liberty, mutual nature made brand items like vitamins and supplements, Starbucks, Coors, light, Qdoba, Capital One, Home Depot, crest, white strips and Jim Beam, all right, those were the 10. What do those 10 have in common? More or less, any ideas there those 10 products and companies are all for consumer products. That's the common link. And that might seem so obvious that you wouldn't even think of it. Well, this is because most ads are for consumer products. Those ads fuel consumerism. And there's nothing wrong with that at all. That. Represents an economy. In fact, I use some of those very companies in my personal life.    Keith Weinhold  20:04   But here's the difference here at GRE our sponsors help you produce, not consume. Think about that as you listen to me in this spot for freedom, family investments and then Ridge lending group, then I'm coming back for more with a terrific guest.    Keith Weinhold  20:23   You know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year, I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why? Fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest. Start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre, or send a text. Now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly. Again, 1-937-795-8989,   Keith Weinhold  21:34   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   John Lee Dumas  22:08   this is Entrepreneur on fires, John Lee, Dumas, don't follow Money. Make money. Follow you with get rich. Education.   Keith Weinhold  22:22   So we have a familiar voice back on the show. It's an in house discussion here with our own GRE investment coach. And like I've told you before, he's got both the formal education with his MBA and the self education, because he's an active real estate investor for four years now, he has helped you completely free, usually over the phone, sometimes on Zoom. He learns your own personal goals and then helps you find the market that's right for you in fitting those goals. And I've had listeners like you tell me that, you know, I can't believe that getting his actionable insight is free, and now he can help you best, though, if you're ready to own more income property, he even helps connect you with the exact property address, like say, 321, raspberry Street in Huntsville, Alabama. So it's great to welcome back to the show and provide the listener with a respite from my mouth breathing rhetoric and discourse, it is GRE investment coach. Naresh Vissa,   Naresh Vissa  23:24   thanks a lot, Keith. I can't believe it's been four years. It's been four amazing years, and congratulations to you and to GRE for being around so long and together, we have grown our listenership, and we appreciate all of you listeners, listening out there, for sure,   Keith Weinhold  23:42   real estate activity has slowed down overall, but things are still really vibrant. Here at GRE we see more activity than we saw last year, and when we talk about increasing activity, Naresh, the Fed, looks to do that when they reduce interest rates, that incentivizes businesses to borrow, that incentivizes consumers to spend, because, for example, they're not getting as high of a yield and their savings account. So now we're here in this fed cutting cycle. Tell us what that means from your perspective.   Naresh Vissa  24:15   We talked about this a few months ago when I was on the podcast at the Federal Reserve. I predicted that the Federal Reserve would begin a rate cutting cycle, and that this cycle would be extensive. It would not be an overnight, 100 basis point cut, or anything like that we saw in March. So that rate cutting cycle has begun, and they continue to cut. And we did an entire episode on President Trump and the name calling with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in the middle of next year. It's May of next year, when he's leaving. And with all that pressure, I predicted that the Fed would begin its rate cutting cycle. We are in the. Cutting cycle right now. They did a few cuts last year and stopped, which I thought were mistakes. But with that being said, we are in the thick of this cutting cycle. We are going to see more cuts moving forward. And what that means you're already seeing it. As a real estate investor, you are seeing, I don't want to say low interest rates, but lower interest rates compared to where we were a year ago, compared to where we were certainly 234, years Well, maybe not four years ago, but three years ago, we are seeing far lower interest rates, and we will continue to see interest rates, in the sense of mortgage rates, plummet as a result of this. So enjoy the low rates while they last, because they're not going to last forever. Nothing lasts forever, but the Federal Reserve, you throw in the government shutdown, I think it makes sense that the Federal Reserve continues to cut, because there's no telling where inflation is going to go. The experts thought that inflation would go up, up, up, up and be a significant problem. They've been saying that since the election winner last year or the election night last year, we haven't necessarily seen that. We have seen inflation somewhat go up, but we haven't seen that runaway inflation that many of the experts predicted as a result of the tariffs, as a result of the rate cutting, I think it definitely helps that number one, Doge, cut several government programs and cut a lot of government spending, not as much as they thought they would, but they cut enough to where they're limiting the amount of federal government spending. We've also seen mass layoffs, mass layoffs in the public sector, which has seeped into the private sector as well, because many of these private companies, like an Accenture, for example, many of these tech companies that were getting subsidies from the government, that funding has stopped, and that has led to layoffs. Now, what layoffs do is layoffs create, I don't want to say deflation, but layoffs are disinflationary, right? And we've seen significant layoffs, like I said, since February of earlier this year, when Doge was in the thick this government shutdown has led to mass layoffs as well. So we've seen 10s of 1000s of people well, we've seen hundreds of 1000s of people furloughed, if not at least a million people furloughed now, they will end up getting their pay, but we've seen 10s of 1000s of people laid off as a result of this government shutdown. And what that means is, again, this is very disinflationary. That's less money that the government is spending moving forward, not just right now, but moving forward. So there's a savings there that's also more people who are probably going to hold on to their cash as tightly as possible as they find new work. So this is, once again, disinflationary. And what does all this mean? All of this, to me, seems disinflationary. It goes against the narrative that when you cut interest rates, inflation goes up. It goes against a narrative that when you implement tariffs, inflation goes up, and that's why we haven't seen the runaway inflation that many so called experts were predicting. I think moving forward, the Fed continues to cut because of the weakness, at least when it comes to the job situation, because of the weakness with jobs, and because of unemployment, it's gone up somewhat. I think the Fed ends up continuing their rate cutting cycle through the end of Powell's term, and it could be just a series of 25 basis points every time they meet. Maybe if things get if there's something that they don't like, they up it to 50 basis points at one of the meetings. But the bottom line is, I think they're just going to keep cutting until Powell is gone, and then Trump will put in his guy into the Fed chair. And by that point, we may have cut enough to where there's not much left to cut yet, and that's when we're going to see there's a chance that could happen, or there's a chance the next guy will pick up where Powell left off and and do series of cuts as well. But what that means is that mortgage rates, we can expect, that's one of the most common questions I get from GRE followers, yeah, it's where do you see mortgage rates going? Because these people, they're not a lot of our followers, they're not following the intricacies of the market. Most of our followers have full time jobs as doctors or dentists or engineers or IT workers, and they're not following the ins and outs. And so the most common question that I get is, where are interest rates going? And I've been pretty spot on for the past few years, minus a few mistakes that I thought the Fed made. But I'm very confident when I say, just like I said when I came on earlier this year, that interest rates are on their way down there, and they are not on their way up.   Keith Weinhold  29:51   Just wait until this administration gets their guy in as the Fed chair. It almost feels like we're going to see a Javier Malay Argentina. President, you know, coming in with the chainsaw, they want to cut rates so aggressively, this administration, and Jerome Powell has sort of been a buffer against that, and Naresh has been using the term disinflation. I don't want you, the listener, to confuse that with deflation. Deflation means an increase in the purchasing power of your dollar, something that we rarely see. Disinflation means a slowing in price increases, meaning the rate of inflation goes down. And yes, I think it's been pretty obvious, and I've stated on the show before as well, that the Fed cares more about the employment situation than they do the inflation situation, probably, and you as an investor, you need to be careful what you wish for, because low rates sound really good, and they can be, but high employment typically correlates with high interest rates of all types, and lower employment typically correlates with low rates of all types. Rates get lowered because they know that the economy needs the help so you can't get both. You can't get both high employment and low rates. That condition doesn't persist for very long. And the Naresh during this part of the cycle, it's really been unusual and interesting at how new build properties have such advantages for investors today, including the aberration that the median new build property costs $33,500 less than the median existing property. That data is per the NAR when we think about new build property. Well, wait, first of all, that sounds amazing, and some people are incredulous about that, but there are reasons that the average new build property costs less. A lot of times the size is smaller. A lot of builders are building further from city centers. So I think before an investor gets in and buys a new build property, one really important question for them to ask is, oh, okay, well, how far is that property from an employment center. But otherwise, it's really the right time in the cycle for new build. New build can make your investment more passive. You know, you've got new fixtures, of course, and a warranty, and you're going to have lower insurance costs as well, typically, on a new build property. And Naresh, as you're talking with our followers and investors about new build property. I'm just kind of wondering, do you get more people that want to self manage the property because it's new build, because they figured that their maintenance and repair requests are going to be fewer? Or what do you see in there?   Naresh Vissa  32:35   No, not at all. Because the strength of GRE is that we connect investors, we coach investors so that they can own real estate around the country. They're not owning real estate in their neighborhood or in the area that they live in. We only focus on markets that make sense, generally linear markets, state friendly landlord friendly states, those other markets we are focusing on. So even with new builds we are seeing, I would say 100% of investors saying, hey, I want professional property manager, managing the property that's extremely, extremely common, that is the norm. I will also say, with new builds you brought up earlier, when you introduced me, I own several properties. The last two properties I bought were new construction. Were new builds. Yeah. And I personally comparing the first six properties of rehabs to my last two, which were new builds, I've had far fewer issues with the new builds, not just far fewer issues. I would say overall, the profitability has been greater with the new builds, despite the pro forma initially showing that I would barely Break Even now, I did buy several several years ago before all this appreciation and inflation hit. But it certainly helped a lot to have new builds where the maintenance is far lower and where the quality of the tenant is extremely high. So I generally recommend our investors, if you have the capital available, and generally, just to keep things simple, I say if you have $100,000 in liquid cash ready to go, there's no reason why you shouldn't be buying a new build. Would I waste my time with the rehabs, with the burrs. I mean, those could be profitable too. You should never say no to anything but the new builds. I've slept better at night because of those reasons, because I know at least for the first 10 years that there aren't going to be any major problems and the quality of the tenant is going to be far higher. So I'm a huge fan of new builds, not pre construction. Pre construction means you're buying a plot of land, and then you hope that the builder is going to build a home on top of it. And most of the time, the builder does, but many times, as we saw during the pandemic, there were key. Countless stories around the country of developers selling pre construction and then nothing ever got built. They ended up flipping the land and generating a profit off of it. I don't recommend those at all, but new construction is the way to go. And I'll also add one more tidbit about the previous topic that we talked about, regarding interest rates also remember that lower interest rates mean that the government and their debt they're going to be paying, they can refinance their debt and pay lower interest on their debt when interest rates go down. So that's also going to help reduce the the deficit, and it's going to help reduce the debt as well. So that will help bring inflation down.   Keith Weinhold  35:42   We're talking about buying a property that's already built with new construction, and in a lot of cases, like we'll talk about shortly, it's already tenanted for you as well. So it really reduces the guesswork and the waiting. And of course, new build properties tend to appreciate better than existing properties. So, yeah, tell us more about new build properties, because they tend to be in Florida and Texas that really has an outsized number of them right now. And that's where the builders are really giving incentives when we talk about appreciation, and where we think about appreciation going in the future. You know, appreciation has been really tepid, really boring. Prices have even contracted a little in some Florida and Texas sub markets, but with the long term trend, visual capitalists just shared a terrific map from today to 2050 for example, the Texas population is expected to grow 27% one of the fastest growth states that there is going to be. And a lot of people say, Oh, isn't it going to pass California in population soon? No, not anytime soon. It'll be decades. California is expected to grow 8% over the next 25 years, but Texas is a place where the numbers still can make sense on new build, because you have some overbuilding. So some builders are really incentivized to give you a good deal.   Naresh Vissa  37:06   Well, there are several markets in general. Let's just talk about it. You use an important term, which is appreciation. With new builds, the likelihood of appreciation is greater. This is statistically backed up. You can go check your sources, but the likelihood of appreciation is far greater with new builds compared to older rehabs, a property that's 50 years old, six years old. In fact, those properties probably appreciated early on in their life cycle, and that's just generally how it works. So with new builds, I say look, cash flow is still important. Cash flow is one of the tenets of real estate paying five ways. It's one of the core tenets of get rich education. But you also have that appreciation play with new builds. Again, it's about markets, because if you're buying a new build in, let's say a California or a New York or a New Hampshire, some really anywhere in the northeast, then it is somewhat of a speculative play, depending on the price point, depending on a lot of different other factors. But when you're talking about the markets that we operate in at GRE you brought up two of them, Florida and Texas. There are other markets, like in Tennessee and Oklahoma, where we have new constructions, and they are also positive, cash flowing, high appreciation place. So you just never know what's going to happen. I bought a new construction, for example, just outside of Memphis six years ago. It was just outside of Memphis in Mississippi six years ago, and I bought it for purely cash flow purposes. The pro forma looked good. Property was brand new. It was near several areas where there were many jobs. So I said, Hey, this is a good cash flow play. And I even remember asking my sales agent, hey, what do you think about appreciation? I usually never buy for appreciation, but this is a new construction. What do you think? And he said, You know what? I don't know if this is really going to appreciate that much. I'm not really sure about that. So I said, that's fine. I like the cash flow. Well, fast forward, six years later, as I said, we you just never know what's going to happen. We saw this inflation. We also saw an influx of people migrating into Tennessee, migrating into Mississippi, especially that Mississippi Tennessee border migrating into the Memphis area. Now we have the Trump administration, sent in the National Guard  about about a month ago, sent in the National Guard into the Memphis area, and they haven't left. They're still there, and crime has is at least based on the numbers that crime has really the National Guard has made a big difference on crime, and that's usually the number one deterrent for a market like Memphis. The point that I'm making here is that you just never know what's going to happen with these new construction builds. If you can get positive cash flow, I always tell our listeners. Shouldn't buy a new construction that's negatively cash flowing. You still want to protect yourself. You don't want to be paying money out of your bank account to own a property. Money should be coming in. So you still want to be positive cash flow. And the appreciation is a huge, huge plus, even in areas that you would not think or that you would not expect to appreciate all that much.   Keith Weinhold  40:22   Appreciation just is not as much of a story over on some other platforms, perhaps, or the way that people think about it, because if you pay all cash, appreciation isn't that good for you, but you're leveraged at four to one or five to one with a 20 to 25% down payment, which can really give you those outsized rates of return, which aligns with what we talk about here at GRE Well, we have a live upcoming virtual event. It is this coming Thursday, and before I ask you if you have anything else to tell the audience here as we wrap up, Naresh, it is hosted by you. So it is co hosted by our own in house investment coach Naresh, and our guest that you heard last week here on the show radio veteran Adam. The Event Thursday is called how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties where you can get up to $41,000 cash back after closing, we talk about these builder incentives. So today's real estate market is really giving buyers opportunities for new builds that I haven't seen, maybe ever. Builders are incentivized to move their properties, and we've made headway with builders to get you up to a 10% cash back incentive at closing when you purchase, you can either take the cash at closing or boost your cash flow by buying down your rate, perhaps get some rent credits, so learn how you can take advantage and really prime yourselves for moves today that are going to lead to your success in coming years. And we have tenanted again, tenanted already occupied new build properties in hot markets like Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, Texas, ready for you to purchase with up to that 10% builder incentive so that you can cash flow from day one. And these properties are really in high quality communities, primarily owner occupied, high appreciation, upside, solid rent growth. So learn the strategy, learn the markets and even see available new build income property. The benefit of you attending is that you can have your questions answered in real time by Naresh or Adam. You can sign up for that now at grewebinars.com It is Thursday, November 13, at 8pm Eastern. Any last thoughts as we lead into Thursday, Naresh?   Naresh Vissa  42:45   Gre, webinars.com gre, webinars.com go to that website to register for our free online special event. It will be live. I'm going to be there with Adam. You heard on last week's podcast, we've got some great deals and great incentives, like what you said, Keith, and they're all new constructions. They're all new constructions, mostly in Texas. And these are major markets in Texas too. We're not talking, yeah, many of our followers and listeners, they see a new construction, and they're like, I've never heard of this place in Alabama, or I've never heard of this place in Oklahoma. These are in legitimate suburbs, areas outside of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, some of them are even in Dallas, Houston, San Antonio proper. So these are markets that everybody is familiar with. It's not some podunk town that you may have seen on our GREmarketplace or GRE spreadsheet in an Arkansas or in Alabama. These are mostly in Texas. The incentives are great, and these are national builders as well. These are not small, no name, Mom and Pop builders. These are national builders who we are working with to offer these special incentives. These are names like you've heard. Many people have heard. Some of them are publicly traded companies like an LGI, that's a very large national builder. That's who we've partnered with to get these deals so grewebinars.com is the link to register for our online special event. GREwebinars.com. I hope to see all of you this Thursday,   Keith Weinhold  44:31   major builders, major markets and major incentives on new build property. You're going to hear more from Naresh on Thursday, it's been great having you back on the show.   Naresh Vissa  44:43   Thanks a lot. Keith   Keith Weinhold  44:50   oh yeah. Naresh does a better job of hosting GRE webinars than I do. In my opinion, you'll remember that I hosted them myself until 2020 23 but you know, maybe I'll come on to a future event for just the first five minutes on one of the upcoming ones, and give an intro before I let the real pros take over. This event is called really just what it is, how to scale your portfolio with tenanted cash flowing new construction properties. It's co hosted by Naresh and Adam, who you met last week. I have never seen this before, where the builder is giving you a fat 10% discount after closing, 10% you can use those 10s of 1000s of dollars to buy your rate down into the fours or other things like use it toward a down payment on another property, pair it with DSCR loans and pay no mortgage insurance on either property. You could buy one property or two properties or 18 properties through the event and DSCR loans. You might remember that means no time consuming income verification, no concerns about your debt to income ratio or W twos or tax returns. We'll show you how to do it all. Like Naresh was saying, we eat our own cooking. We ourselves. Here at GRE are investors too, and we are buying new build for our own personal portfolios. The time is right for this. It wasn't a few years ago, and a few years from now, it probably won't be either. Hundreds are already signed up for it. It is this Thursday, at 8pm Eastern. It's GRE, last event of the year. This is it one last time attend by signing up at grewebinars.com that's grewebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 4  46:59   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively. You   Keith Weinhold  47:27   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com  

 Coming out of the weekend, analyzing the latest data, the impact between federal government employees, those on benefit programs impacted, and also through travel delays has reached about 20%-22% of the U.S. population. Also, economic estimates now show that overall impacts to the U.S. economy are starting to show – with the GDP growth forecast being cut by just under 1% most recently. 

My neologism-du-jour is “enstatification”. It's what is happening in MAGA America with Trump's Gaucho-style swaggering into the economy and his reversal to autarky and a back-to-the-future Monroe Doctrine. With the growth of a 19th-century style state power, America is trying to become the new China. Meanwhile, as Keith Teare notes in his latest That Was The Week newsletter, China is the new America in its embrace of technological innovation, particularly its trebling down on clean energy. That's why the “Too Big To Fail” debate about OpenAI is so heavily laced in irony. It's not just Sam Altman's chutzpah in trying to simultaneously become the punter and the house in his multi-trillion-dollar bet on ChatGPT. But it might actually reflect the new realities of second-quarter 21st-century America. We've been wondering for a while now what comes after neo-liberalism. In a neologism: enstatification. * China Has Already Won the Clean Energy Race—And That Changes Everything Keith Teare confirms what The Economist reported: China's clean energy capacity dwarfs America's by a decade or more. This isn't just about being green—it's about controlling the energy infrastructure that AI requires. China is becoming the 21st century's combination of America and Saudi Arabia.* Jensen Huang's Verdict: China Will Win the AI Race Because It Deregulates While America Bureaucratizes The NVIDIA CEO's provocative claim isn't just marketing—it reflects a real competitive advantage. While four Democratic states pursue AI regulation at the state level, Beijing is loosening regulations and slashing energy costs for data centers. Democracy's decentralization may be its Achilles heel in rapid technological competition.* OpenAI's “Too Big to Fail” Status Reveals the New Age of Enstatification Despite David Sacks' denials, OpenAI's strategic importance means it effectively cannot be allowed to fail—not because of systemic financial risk like 2008, but because of national competitiveness concerns. This isn't neoliberalism anymore; it's America's version of state capitalism.* The Real Convergence Isn't US vs China—It's Both Nations Embracing State-Directed Economies Trump's Intel investment, Sacks and Andreessen's push for centralized AI policy, and China's directed innovation represent a global trend toward what Keith calls state involvement in “procuring and distributing wealth.” Alibaba and Google, Huawei and NVIDIA—they're becoming more alike than different.* Keith Teare's Optimism: “Everyone Will Win” in the AI Economy—But Some Pigs Are More Equal: Keith argues this isn't a zero-sum race with winners and losers, but a rising tide lifting all boats through reciprocity. America and China will both capture massive value from AI's potential $26 trillion GDP boost by 2035. I remain skeptical: history suggests great power competitions don't end in shared prosperity.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

新北市政府就業服務處提供全方位就業協助， 設有8個就業服務站、16個服務台及5個偏鄉駐點， 2025年底將增設林口站，成為全國服務據點最多的城市。 滿足不同族群需求，幫助您輕鬆找到理想工作。 以上為新北市政府就業服務處廣告 連結：https://sofm.pse.is/8bjhnp --

The Reserve Bank shocked a lot of us last month when it cut the OCR by 50 basis points down to 2.5%. Analysts have said that the RBNZ was reading the room and giving kiwis a much needed breather after years of high rates. Early signs are showing it's starting to have an effect - with the GDP estimate for the September quarter pointing to 0.6% growth and many banks forecasting an optimistic remainder of the year. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In last week's Super-Spiked (here), we wrote about Power being the third super-cycle in our lifetime. In this week's short video podcast, we wanted to share some thoughts on how the early days of the China-BRICs expansion compares and contrasts with the current AI-driven mania and its impact on power markets. We are calling this “Then and Now” with the aim of trying to take the best lessons from the last super-cycle so we can be better prepared and hopefully do a better job navigating the current one. We have five points to make:(1) Global GDP acceleration coming?Will we see an acceleration in global GDP back above 3.5% and possibly 4% versus the slower 3% or so that we have been seeing in recent years? One of the big things most oil analysts got wrong early in the China/BRICs period was that global GPD was accelerating, in that example led by China but ultimately spilling over to many other parts of the world. Today, we see signs that energy usage in both China and the United States is on-track to be better than many had feared for 2025. That's not the same thing as saying we are back to boom times like 20+ years ago. But it does bear watching.(2) All commodity areas benefitted from the China/BRICs expansionOil most notably, but natural gas, coal, steel, copper, etc., all had their own period of strong performance. It is our assessment that oil was the most important of the China/BRICs commodities given its size and global criticality. This go round we see oil as merely a beneficiary of a power super cycle, not its driver. And to be clear since some of you have asked, oil markets will benefit from general economic expansion that will come from a Power Surge as well as the increased construction activity from building data centers. We are not arguing for oil-fired power generation per se, though perhaps we do get some of that as well. Diesel generators come to mind.(3) Model out a super-cycle on revenues and earningsFor winning sectors, make an effort to examine what top of cycle conditions can truly look like. As an example, at a time oil prices were around $40/bbl, we ran scenarios as to what $100/bbl oil would like, which is very different than the +/- $10 sensitivities most analysts would run. For some of you, that may not mean much. What we are saying is play-out as best as you can what a multi-year bull market looks like and don't anchor yourself to what was a different recent past. It is not about placing a 100% probability on that upside coming true, but if the probability is greater than zero, model it as best as you can.(4) Figure out the signposts for peakTry to figure out the signposts for what would truly cause the cycle to peak and then turn. In the China/BRICs area, we sought to model demand destruction pricing which we originally estimated would occur at $105/bbl. That was partly correct. It certainly helped frame the oil price upside. But for oil and gas equities, we did not give adequate consideration to what we now call our “Quadrilateral of Death” which means that peak return on capital for the sector was what mattered most for oil and gas equities, not the raw oil price peak. As we noted in last week's post, we suspect the Quadrilateral of Death is not the correct analytical framework for most power-oriented sectors. We need to figure out what is, so we can better assess when this super-cycle has truly reached its half-life. We think we have some time to figure this out. (5) Navigating volatilityThe final area to think through is how as an investor or corporate do you want to navigate volatility. A great example was the Deep Seek sell off last December. I am sure there will be many more to come where the first thought from people will be “power theme had a great run, it's now over, sell the stocks”. My personal style is the buy-and-hold long term approach and trying to figure out the ultimate super-cycle peak. For those of you that are truly good short-term traders, have at it. Everyone else, you're going to have to decide for yourself. For corporates, the trick is often understanding what the long-term steady state will be and your ability to adapt with the mix of assets and balance sheet that you have if conditions are materially different than expected. An example is that some companies and businesses adapted faster and better to the move from $100/bbl to a sustained post-super-cycle $50-$60/bbl range than did others. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com

SEO Summary: An in-depth editorial exploring China's rise in AI and GDP share, historical parallels to U.S. industrial dominance, and how cooperation—not rivalry—will define the next century of technological progress. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.thatwastheweek.com/subscribe

New Air NZ CEO Nikhil Ravishankar joins Q+A to talk about the challenges in navigating an increasingly volatile world, how technology is changing the airline business, and how Air NZ can meaningfully contribute to the country's GDP. He also discusses his background, parents, and how he came to be in New Zealand.

Germany is rearming, and fast. A sentence that once sent shivers down Europe's spine is now a shocking reality. This isn't the Germany of old; it's a nation powering up for a new era of danger. With Putin's war machine grinding on, Berlin's gone from pacifist to powerhouse, pledging a staggering 3.5% of GDP to defence by 2029, outpacing the UK. So what's behind this dramatic transformation? And is it enough to protect Europe from another Russian rampage? Venetia is joined by The Telegraph's Berlin correspondent James Rothwell and defence expert Ulrike Franke to find out about Germany's great rearmament.Read Matt Oliver's deep dive into Germany's rearmament: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/11/02/germany-wants-to-arm-itself-to-the-teeth-is-the-world-ready/Credit: AFP/Genya Savilov► Sign up to our most popular newsletter, From the Editor. Look forward to receiving free-thinking comment and the day's biggest stories, every morning. telegraph.co.uk/fromtheeditorhttps://linktr.ee/BattleLinesContact us with feedback or ideas:battlelines@telegraph.co.uk @venetiarainey@RolandOliphant Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Allen thinks people are missing the potential reversal of corporate tax cuts. He discusses the enormous AI capex from the top four hyperscalers, calling it “astonishing” and saying it makes up “at least 0.5% - 1%” of GDP. He thinks the U.S. is “better positioned than China to win the AI race,” and thinks valuations “could be reasonable.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

**敵我不分！鄭麗文明參加統派活動「追思先烈」最高階共諜將官吳石 **鄭麗文明與中國政黨「追思」共諜　沈伯洋：汙名白色恐怖且公然「叛國」 **｢密使一號｣吳石提供中共絕密軍事機密 包括台灣各戰略登陸點 **國民黨團刪除總召「連選得連任一次」規定 網諷：傅近平來了 **NCC人事同意權案 藍白封殺下全數遭否決 **回憶10年前「歷史事件」 馬英九突然發文：感謝習近平先生 **史上有19個「11月颱風」發過警報！鳳凰若登陸　將創1紀錄 **禁宰令解除開拍了！豬肉供應商多採購2成 補15天庫存消耗 **傻眼！中市府今赴議會專案報告 報告人竟是「被免職局長」 **「下屬出包盧秀燕扛責」圖卡狂洗 江肇國轟：卸責得這麼難看！妳是指揮官 沒人會叫你媽媽發 **「中國將贏 AI 競賽」？輝達黃仁勳澄清：美國要贏得世界開發者才能領先 **富可敵國！馬斯克「兆元」薪酬是孟加拉GDP兩倍 全球只輸20國 **裴洛西結束40年政治生涯！「最偉大議長」對決川普全紀錄　訪台獲1勳章重塑台美格局 **每日推150億則！路透：Meta 估去年靠詐騙廣告刊登費賺進5,000億元 ***植物保健專家【威瑪舒培】*** https://bit.ly/4bzFEoZ #寶島聯播網 #鄭弘儀 #寶島全世界 #川普 #習近平 #輝達 #黃仁勳 #盧秀燕 #非洲豬瘟 #鄭麗文 #馬英九 #META #臉書 #馬斯克 #祖克柏 #裴洛西 加入會員，支持節目： https://clw4248xv113d01wg7s4h2xnq.firstory.io/join 留言告訴我你對這一集的想法： https://open.firstory.me/user/clw4248xv113d01wg7s4h2xnq/comments Powered by Firstory Hosting

In this episode of The Line Podcast, recorded on November 7, 2025, Matt Gurney and Jen Gerson react to a remarkably busy week in Canadian politics.This episode of The Line Podcast is brought to you by Forestry For The Future. Canada's housing crisis demands bold, scalable solutions. Build Canada Homes is an opportunity to leverage Canadian wood in modern construction. Wood-based methods like mass timber and modular construction can significantly reduce build times, waste, and carbon emissions, while supporting local economies. Expanding building codes, streamlining approvals, and prioritizing domestic wood in federal projects could double demand and foster job creation in rural and northern communities.Despite trade challenges and market volatility, a partnership between industry and government is vital to stabilize the sector, enhance competitiveness, and deliver innovative, sustainably sourced Canadian wood products for homes across Canada and abroad. With capacity growing across provinces, stable demand and predictable financing are key to unlocking the sector's potential.We need to Build Canada Homes with Canadian wood. To learn more, visit ForestryForTheFuture.ca.They start with the Mark Carney government. Matt's self-imposed six-month grace period for judging the new prime minister has expired, and he's ready to weigh in: better than Trudeau, but not good enough for the moment. Jen is slightly more patient but, somehow, even sharper in her take — especially when it comes to Carney's recent apology to Donald Trump, which she finds baffling and unnecessary. And enraging.This episode is also brought to you by CPA Ontario. There's a saying: “Keep it simple,” and what's true for life is true for taxes. And while this week's historic federal budget introduced some much-needed tax measures to help spur investment and innovation, there is still more work to be done to make Canada's tax system less complex, and more competitive.  Just ask a CPA. In a recent survey, 84 per cent of Ontario CPAs said Canada's tax system is overly complex. They know how complexity drains resources from productive activity, and how high tax rates discourage investment and entrepreneurship, the very things Canada needs. Consider the numbers: real GDP per capita has barely grown in seven years and investment per worker in Canada is less than half that of the U.S.Complexity has a cost, and Canadians are paying it. Our sponsor, CPA Ontario, the regulator of over 105,000 Chartered Professional Accountants, has released a report putting forward 20 bold, practical recommendations to reform Canada's tax system, and simplify the Income Tax Act. The 2025 Budget was a step forward — but more reform is needed to grow the economy, create jobs, and raise living standards.Learn more at cpaontario.ca/taxreformThen attention turns to the Conservatives, where Pierre Poilievre's week has gone from bad to worse. Two MPs have walked away, and the question now is whether this is an isolated hiccup or the start of a real leadership problem. Matt and Jen point out that without the wind of inevitable victory at his back, Poilievre will need to rely on charm and political skill — qualities not generally considered his strong suit.The episode wraps with a wide-ranging discussion on what “woke” and “feminism” actually mean in 2025, and how those words have evolved. Jen is workshopping a new column on the topic, and Matt is clearly looking forward to reading it. All that and more in the latest episode of The Line Podcast.

Who was Rachel Reeves really speaking to when she hinted at higher taxes this week? How much of a threat is the Supreme Court to Treasury tariff revenues? And how useful is “G2” as a lens for the new global order? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing unpacks these big global macro questions in the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. Also on the show, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins assesses whether this week's sell-off marks the end of the great AI-driven US equity boom, or was just a wobble on the way to new highs.Analysis and events referenced in this episodeRead: UK Autumn Budget 2025 PreviewRead: How could the Budget influence UK housing?Drop-In: India at the geo-economic crossroadsDrop-In: Commercial Property Outlook - What to watch out for in 2026Read: Reliance on tech is a double-edged swordRead: What to make of the mixed reaction to this week's big-tech results

In this KE Report Daily Editorial, we're joined by Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and Editor of Marc to Market, to discuss the recent U.S. market correction, Fed policy, and the impact of the government shutdown. Key Discussion Highlights: Market pullback: Tech leads the selloff as the S&P 500 drops from 6,900 to ~6,600; Chandler flags three late-October gap-ups as a sign of rally exhaustion. Fed policy shift: Powell's cautious tone dims hopes for a December cut. Marc expects deeper Fed easing in 2025 versus other central banks. Shutdown impact: Economic drag near 0.3% of GDP if the shutdown lasts past mid-November; disruptions hit flights and public aid programs. Dollar bounce: DXY testing its 200-day average - Chandler calls it a short-term rebound within a longer-term downtrend. Alt data signals: Trucking, rail, and shipping volumes show clear slowdown despite AI-driven strength in headline GDP. Global divergence: BoC and BoE may still cut; Japan faces pressure to hike despite weak GDP. Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market - https://www.marctomarket.com/ ------------ For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks: The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

Andrew Yang traces his path from failed entrepreneur to 2020 presidential candidate driven by a single realization: automation has already destroyed millions of American jobs, and the next wave will be exponentially worse. Through his work with Venture for America, he witnessed firsthand the economic devastation in Detroit, Ohio, and the Midwest—where automated manufacturing jobs created the conditions that elected Donald Trump. Yang argues that artificial intelligence will soon eliminate truck driving, retail, call centers, and even white-collar professions like law and accounting. His solution is Universal Basic Income—a $1,000 monthly Freedom Dividend for every American adult, funded by a Value Added Tax on tech companies. He dismantles objections about affordability and work ethic, revealing how the policy would grow GDP by $2.5 trillion, create 4.5 million jobs, and transform America into a human-centered economy before technological displacement pushes society off a cliff. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on Sinica, I chat with Lizzi Lee, a fellow on the Chinese economy at the Asia Society Policy Institute and one of the sharpest China analysts working today. We dig into the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Party Congress and what it reveals about China's evolving growth model — particularly the much-discussed but often misunderstood push against "involution" in key sectors like EVs and solar. Lizzi walks us through the structural incentives driving overcompetition, from local government finance and VAT collection to the challenges of rebalancing supply and demand. We also discuss her recent Foreign Affairs piece on China's manufacturing model, why "overcapacity" is a misleading frame, the unexpected upsides of China's industrial strategy for the global green transition, and what happened at the Trump-Xi meeting in Busan. This is a conversation about getting beyond the binaries and understanding the actual mechanisms — and contradictions — shaping China's economic trajectory.4:43 – What Western reporting missed in the 4th Plenum communique 6:34 – The "anti-involution" push and what it really means 9:57 – Is China's domestic demand abnormally low? Context and comparisons 12:41 – Why cash transfers and consumption subsidies are running out of steam 15:00 – The supply-side approach: creating better products to drive demand 18:33 – GDP vs. GNI: why China is focusing on global corporate footprints 20:13 – Service exports and China's ascent along the global supply chain 24:02 – The People's Daily editorial on price wars and profit margins 27:31 – Why addressing involution is harder now than in 2015 29:56 – How China's VAT system incentivizes local governments to build entire supply chains 33:20 – The difficulty of reforming fiscal structures and local government finance 35:12 – What got lost in the Foreign Affairs editing process 38:14 – Why "overcapacity" is a misleading and morally loaded term 40:02 – The underappreciated upside: China's model and the global green transition 43:14 – How politically potent deindustrialization fears are in Washington and Brussels 46:29 – Industry self-discipline vs. structural reform: can moral suasion work? 50:15 – BYD's negotiating power and the squeeze on suppliers 53:54 – The Trump-Xi meeting in Busan: genuine thaw or tactical pause? 57:23 – Pete Hegseth's "God bless both China and the USA" tweet 1:00:01 – How China's leadership views Trump: transactional or unpredictable? 1:03:32 – The pragmatic off-ramp and what Paul Triolo predicted 1:05:26 – China's AI strategy: labor-augmenting vs. labor-replacing technology 1:08:13 – What systemic changes could realistically fix involution? 1:10:26 – Capital market reform and the challenge of decelerating slowly 1:12:36 – The "health first" strategy and investing in peoplePaying it forward: Paul TrioloRecommendations: Lizzi: Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare by Edward Fishman Kaiser: Morning Coffee guitar practice book by Alex RockwellSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

“AI may not simply be 'a bubble,' or even an enormous bubble. It may be the ultimate bubble,” writes tech journalist Brian Merchant. In the first half of the year, AI contributed to 1.1% of GDP growth and eight tech companies are now valued at $1 trillion or more. While investors are giddy at the pace of growth, many economic analysts are more sober. We get to the bottom of the bubble and what might happen if it pops. Guests: Charlie Warzel, staff writer, The Atlantic. Warzel is also the author of "Galaxy Brain," a newsletter about the internet and big ideas. - he co-authored the piece "Here is How the AI Crash Happens" Brian Merchant, tech journalist, writes the "Blood in the Machine" newsletter, author, "Blood in the Machine: The Origins of the Rebellion against Big Tech; his most recent piece in Wired is "AI is the Bubble to Burst Them All" Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today's markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500's impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.Key TakeawaysHistoric Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months. Global Momentum: It's not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.Fed's Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle's peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell's comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.Connect with Ryan:• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick• X: @ryandetrickConnect with Sonu:• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese• X: @sonusvarghese Questions about the show? We'd love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com Hashtags#FactsVsFeelings #MarketMomentum #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #GlobalMarkets  

Collin Martin and Kevin Gordon join Nicole Petallides at the Charles Schwab IMPACT 2025 conference. Kevin says the "TINA" trade is back for data, saying the government shutdown has revealed there is no alternative for data. Kevin points to the retraction trends occurring in manufacturing activity and admits there could be a hit to U.S. GDP when the government ultimately reopens. Collin weighs in on the Fed's outlook and what current conditions mean for its rate-cutting cycle.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

KKP Research เตือนการคลังไทย ‘ถึงขีดจำกัด' เสี่ยงกระทบเครดิตประเทศ ซ้ำรอยช่วงวิกฤตการเงินโลกปี 2008 หนี้สาธารณะต่อ GDP มี จ่อทะลุเพดาน 70% ใน 2 ปี เตือนรัฐมีหนี้ที่ยังไม่รับรู้อีกคิดเป็นประมาณเกือบ 5% ของ GDP รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไร เคลียร์ปมร้านค้า 'คนละครึ่งพลัส' บวก VAT ในราคาสินค้าเพิ่ม ทำได้หรือไม่ พูดคุยกับ สิริพงศ์ อังคสกุลเกียรติ โฆษกประจำสำนักนายกรัฐมนตรี

英國當前的財經環境與政策挑戰問：英國工黨政府目前面臨的經濟環境是什麼？答：英國正處於高通脹（尚未回落）和低增長/經濟表現不佳的環境中 。在這種不利背景下，財相李韻晴卻暗示即將實施加稅措施 。問：英國政府的財政狀況有多嚴峻？答：截至目前，30年期政府債券的孳息率高達 5.7%，是 1998 年以來的最高點 。整體公共債務佔 GDP 的比例為 95% ，且預計到 2026 年將升至 105% 。問：政府債務負擔沉重的關鍵因素是什麼？答：通脹和利率上升時，新的融資成本不斷增加 。 財政開支結構與問題核心問：英國政府開支中，哪些項目是最大的、難以削減的「三座大山」？答：最大的、基本上屬於法律責任（non-discretionary）的開支項目包括 ：* 社會保障/福利 (Social Protection)：約 3,840 億英鎊 。* 醫療 (NHS)：約 2420 億英鎊 。* 公共債務的利息支出：每年約 1,112 億英鎊，佔總體開支的 8% 。問：政府支付的債務利息支出規模有多大？答：僅債務利息支出已經超過國防和教育開支 。問：加稅是解決英國財政問題的有效方法嗎？答：現有環境下，單純加稅並不能解決問題 。英國的稅收佔 GDP 比例已達 37.7% ，這導致在英國投資的動機不足，競爭力衰落 。政府必須面對削減開支的艱難政治決定 ，特別是涉及社會福利、醫療和養老的承諾 。結構性困境與出路問：英國經濟長期低增長的結構性問題是什麼？答：除了高開支和高稅率外，英國面臨長期低增長與競爭力衰落的問題 。這表現在固定資產投資和人力資本投資 (Capital Investment) 上的缺乏 ，以及教育制度變為產業化後對社會流動性造成的潛在障礙 。問：英國目前的狀況與歷史上的財政危機有何不同？ 答：1976 年 IMF 救助後，英國在 1970 年代末期有戴卓爾夫人改革。1990 年代末期工黨修正主義與和平紅利的危機相比 ，2025 年的英國正處於全球化逆轉的狀態，競爭力更為關鍵 。當前的挑戰是，英國政府缺乏像美國那樣的經濟深度和容納衝擊的能力 。問：從自由市場經濟學角度來看，英國財政的出路何在？答：真正的出路在於將稅收佔 GDP 的比例減少（即降低 37.7% 這個數字），與此同時大幅減少開支 ，尤其是針對 NHS、Pension 和 Social Protection 等高福利承諾進行改革 。 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit leesimon.substack.com/subscribe

KKP Research เตือนการคลังไทย ‘ถึงขีดจำกัด' เสี่ยงกระทบเครดิตประเทศ ซ้ำรอยช่วงวิกฤตการเงินโลกปี 2008 หนี้สาธารณะต่อ GDP มี จ่อทะลุเพดาน 70% ใน 2 ปี เตือนรัฐมีหนี้ที่ยังไม่รับรู้อีกคิดเป็นประมาณเกือบ 5% ของ GDP รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไรเคลียร์ปมร้านค้า 'คนละครึ่งพลัส' บวก VAT ในราคาสินค้าเพิ่ม ทำได้หรือไม่ พูดคุยกับ สิริพงศ์ อังคสกุลเกียรติ โฆษกประจำสำนักนายกรัฐมนตรี

Stephen Grootes speaks to Nhlanhla Nene, Chairman of TEHA Africa and former finance minister, about Southern Africa’s untapped economic potential. Despite abundant resources, the region’s real GDP growth remains low at 1.9%. Ahead of the 12th CEO Dialogue on Southern Africa, organised by The European House – Ambrosetti, Nene will discuss the importance of building long-term partnerships across business communities to overcome structural bottlenecks, fiscal vulnerabilities, infrastructure gaps, weak external demand, and climate-related challenges. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 CapeTalk on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@CapeTalk567 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The path to progressing as a leader isn't always linear. SUMMARY Col. (Ret.) Mike Ott shows how a childhood dream can evolve into a lifetime of impact—from commanding in uniform to leading innovation in healthcare and national defense. Hear more on Long Blue Leadership. Listen now!   SHARE THIS PODCAST LINKEDIN  |  FACEBOOK   MIKE'S LEADERSHIP TAKEAWAYS A leader worth his or her salt should be comfortable not being the smartest person in the room. Striving for a lack of hubris is essential in leadership. Setting a clear vision is a fundamental leadership skill. Moving people without authority is crucial for effective leadership. Resource management is key to achieving organizational goals. Acknowledging what you don't know is a strength in leadership. Effective leaders focus on guiding their teams rather than asserting dominance. Leadership is about influencing and inspiring others. A successful mission requires collaboration and shared vision. True leadership is about empowering others to succeed.   CHAPTERS 00:00: Early Inspiration 06:32: Academy Years 13:17: Military Career Transition 21:33: Financial Services Journey 31:29: MOBE and Healthcare Innovation 40:12: Defense Innovation Unit 48:42: Philanthropy and Community Impact 58:11: Personal Growth and Leadership Lessons   ABOUT MIKE OTT BIO Mike Ott is the Chief Executive Officer of MOBĒ, a U.S.-based company focused on whole-person health and care-management solutions. He became CEO in April 2022, taking the helm to lead the company through growth and operational excellence following a distinguished career in both the military and corporate sectors.  A graduate of the United States Air Force Academy, Mike served as a Colonel in the U.S. Air Force Reserves before shifting into financial services and healthcare leadership roles including private wealth management at U.S. Bank and executive positions with UnitedHealth Group/Optum. His leadership ethos emphasizes alignment, acceleration, and human potential, building cultures where teams can thrive and leveraging data-driven models to improve health outcomes.   CONNECT WITH MIKE LinkedIn MOBE CONNECT WITH THE LONG BLUE LEADERSHIP PODCAST NETWORK TEAM Send your feedback or nominate a guest: socialmedia@usafa.org Ted Robertson | Producer:  Ted.Robertson@USAFA.org    Ryan Hall | Director:  Ryan.Hall@USAFA.org  Bryan Grossman | Copy Editor:  Bryan.Grossman@USAFA.org Wyatt Hornsby | Executive Producer:  Wyatt.Hornsby@USAFA.org      ALL PAST LBL EPISODES  |  ALL LBLPN PRODUCTIONS AVAILABLE ON ALL MAJOR PODCAST PLATFORMS     OUR SPEAKERS Guest, Col. (Ret.) Mike Ott '85  |  Host, Lt. Col. (Ret.) Naviere Walkewicz '99   FULL TRANSCRIPT Naviere Walkewicz 0:00 A quick programming note before we begin this episode of Long Blue Leadership: This episode will be audio-only, so sit back and enjoy the listen. Welcome to Long Blue Leadership, the podcast where we share insights on leadership through the lives and experiences of Air Force Academy graduates. I'm Naviere Walkewicz, Class of '99. Today, on Long Blue Leadership, we welcome Col. (Ret.) Mike Ott, Class of 1985, a leader whose vision was sparked at just 9 years old during a family road trip past the Air Force Academy. That childhood dream carried him through a 24-year Air Force career, culminating in retirement as a colonel and into a life of leadership across business, innovation and philanthropy. Mike is the CEO of MOBE, a groundbreaking company that uses data analytics and a revolutionary pay-for-results model to improve health outcomes while reducing costs. He also serves as a senior adviser to the Defense Innovation Unit, supporting the secretary of defense in accelerating commercial innovation for national security. A member of the Forbes Councils, Mike shares his expertise with leaders around the world. A former Falcon Foundation trustee and longtime supporter of the Academy, Mike has given generously his time, talents and resources to strengthen the Long Blue Line. His story is one of innovation and service in uniform, in the marketplace and in his community. Mike, welcome to Long Blue Leadership. We're so glad to have you here.   Mike Ott 1:29 Naviere, thanks a ton. I'm glad to be here. Naviere Walkewicz 1:31 Yes, yes. Well, we're really excited. I mean, you're here for your 40th reunion.   Mike Ott 1:35 Yeah, it's crazy.   Naviere Walkewicz1:37 You came right in, and we're so pleased that you would join us here first for this podcast.   Mike Ott 1:39 Right on. Thanks for the time.   Naviere Walkewicz 1:41 Absolutely. Well, let's jump right in, because not many people can say at 9 years old they know what they want to do when they grew up, but you did. Mike Ott 1:48 Yeah. I guess some people can say it; might not be true, but for me, it's true, good or bad. And goodness gracious, right? Here for my 40th reunion, do the math team, and as a 9-year-old, that was 1972, And a lot was going on in the world in 1972 whether it was political unrest, Vietnam and all of that, and the Academy was in the thick of it. And so we had gone — It was our first significant family vacation. My father was a Chicago policeman. We drove in the 1968 Buick LaSabre, almost straight through. Stopped, stayed at a Holiday Inn, destination Colorado, simply, just because nobody had ever seen the mountains before. That was why. And we my parents, mom, mom and dad took myself. I have two younger sisters, Pikes Peak, Academy, Garden of the Gods, Royal Gorge. And I remember noon meal formation, and the bell going off. Guys at the time — we hadn't had women as cadets at that point in time — running out in their flight suits as I recall lining up ready to go. And for me, it was the energy, right, the sense of, “Wow, this is something important.” I didn't know exactly how important it was, but I knew it was important, and I could envision even at that age, there was they were doing good, Naviere Walkewicz 3:21 Wow. Nine years old, your family went on vacation, and it just struck you as this is important and something that I want to do. So what did that conversation look like after that experience that you had as a 9-year-old and kind of manifest this in yourself? How did that go with your parents? Mike Ott 3:36 Well, I didn't say too much about it, as I was in grammar school, but as high school hit, you know, I let my folks know what my plans were, and I had mom and dad — my mother's still alive, my father passed about a year ago. Very, very good, hard-working, ethical people, but hadn't gone to college, and we had been told, “Look, you know, you need to get an education.” They couldn't. I wish they had. They were both very, very, very bright, and so I knew college was a plan. I also knew there wasn't a lot of money to pay for it. So I'm certain that that helped bake in a few things. But as I got into high school, I set my sights. I went to public high school in Chicago, and I remember freshman year walking into my counselor's office, and said, “I want to go to the Air Force Academy,” and he kind of laughed.   Naviere Walkewicz 3:21 Really?   Mike Ott 3:22 Well, we had 700 kids in my class, and maybe 40% went on to college, right? And the bulk of them went to community college or a state school. I can count on one hand the number of folks that went to an academy or an Ivy League school or something of that. So it was it was around exposure. It had nothing to do with intelligence. It was exposure and just what these communities were accustomed to. A lot of folks went into the trades and pieces like that. So my counselor's reaction wasn't one of shock or surprise insofar as that's impossible. It was, “We haven't had a lot of people make that commitment this early on, and I'm glad to help.”   Naviere Walkewicz 5:18 Oh, I love that.   Mike Ott 5:19 Which is wonderful, and what I had known at the time, Mr. Needham...   Naviere Walkewicz 5:23 You Remember his name?   Mike Ott 5:24 Yeah, he was in the Navy Reserves. He was an officer, so he got the joke. He got the joke and helped me work through what classes to take, how to push myself. I didn't need too much guidance there. I determined, “Well, I've got to distinguish myself.” And I like to lean in. I like a headwind, and I don't mind a little bit of an uphill battle, because once you get up there, you feel great. I owe an awful lot to him. And, not the superintendent, but the principal of our school was a gentleman named Sam Ozaki, and Sam was Japanese American interned during World War II as a young man, got to of service age and volunteered and became a lieutenant in the Army and served in World War II in Europe, right, not in Asia. So he saw something in me. He too became an advocate. He too became someone that sought to endorse, support or otherwise guide me. Once I made that claim that I was going to go to the Academy. Naviere Walkewicz 6:30 Wow. So you mentioned something that really stuck with me. You said, you know, you didn't mind kind of putting yourself out there and doing the hard things, because you knew when you got to the top it was going to feel really great. Was that something you saw from your father? Was that something, there are key leaders in your life that emulated that? Or is that just something that you always had in yourself? Mike Ott 6:51 I would say there's certainly an environmental element to it — how I was raised, what I was exposed to, and then juxtaposition as to what I observed with other family members or other parts of the community where things didn't work out very well, right? And, you know, I put two and two together. y father demonstrated, throughout his entire career what it means to have a great work ethic. As did mom and, you know, big, tough Chicago cop for 37 years. But the other thing that I learned was kindness, and you wouldn't expect to learn that from the big, tough Chicago cop, but I think it was environment, observing what didn't occur very often and how hard work, if I apply myself, can create outcomes that are going to be more fulfilling for me. Naviere Walkewicz 7:48 Wow, you talked about kindness. How did you see kindness show up in your journey as a cadet at the Air Force Academy? Or did you? Mike Ott 7:58 Yeah, gosh, so I remember, started in June of 1981, OK, and still connected with many of the guys and women that with whom I went to basic training and all that. The first moment of kindness that I experienced that it was a mutual expression, but one where I recognized, “Wow, every one of us is new here. None of us has a real clue.” We might have some idea because we had somebody had a sibling or a mother that was in the military or father that went to the academy at the time, but none of us really knew, right? We were knuckleheads, right? Eighteen years old. Maybe there were a couple of prior-enlisted folks. I don't recall much of that, but I having gone to a public high school in Chicago, where we had a variety of different ethnicities. I learned how to just understand people for who they are, meet them for who they are, and respect every individual. That's how I was raised, and that's how I exhibited myself, I sought to conduct myself in high school. So I get to the Academy, and you're assigned, you know, the first couple three nights, the first few weeks before you go to Jacks Valley, you're assigned. It was all a alphabetical, and my roommate was an African American fellow named Kevin Nixon. All right, my God, Kevin Nixon, and this guy, he was built. I mean, he was rock solid, right? And he had that 1000-yard stare, right? Very intimidating. And I'm this, like, 6-foot-tall, 148-pound runner, like, holy dork, right? And I'm assigned — we're roommates, and he just had a very stoicism, or a stoic nature about him. And I remember, it was our second night at the Academy, maybe first night, I don't quite recall, and we're in bed, and it's an hour after lights out, and I hear him crying, and like, well, what do you do? Like, we're in this together. It was that moment, like we're both alone, but we're not right. He needs to know that he's not alone. So I walked around and went over his bed, and I said, “Hey, man, I miss my mom and dad too. Let's talk. And we both cried, right? And I'll tell you what, he and I were pals forever. It was really quite beautiful. And what didn't happen is he accepted my outreach, right? And he came from a very difficult environment, one where I'm certain there was far more racial strife than I had experienced in Chicago. He came from Norfolk, Virginia, and he came from — his father worked in the shipyards and really, really tough, tough, tough background. He deserved to be the Academy. He was a great guy, very bright, and so we became friends, and I tried to be kind. He accepted that kindness and reciprocated in ways where he created a pretty beautiful friendship. Naviere Walkewicz 7:48 Oh, my goodness. Thank you for sharing that story. And you got me in the feels a little bit, because I remember those nights, even you know me having family members that went through the Academy. There's just something about when you're in it yourself, and in that moment, it's raw.   Mike Ott 11:13 Raw is a good word. Naviere Walkewicz 11:15 Oh, thank you for that. So you're at the Academy and you end up doing 24 years. I don't mean to, like, mash all that into one sentence, but let's talk… Mike Ott 11:22 I didn't do very much. It was the same year repeated 24 times over. Like, not a very good learner, right? Not a very good learner. Naviere Walkewicz 11:30 Yeah, I was gonna ask, you know, in that journey, because, had you planned to do a career in the Air Force? Mike Ott 11:36 Well, I didn't know, right? I went in, eyes wide open, and my cumulative time in the Air Force is over 24 but it was only it was just shy of seven active duty, and then 22, 23, in the Reserves, right? I hadn't thought about the Reserves, but I had concluded, probably at the, oh, maybe three-year mark that I wanted to do other things. It had nothing to do with disdain, a sense of frustration or any indignation, having gone to the Academy, which I'm very, very proud of, and it meant an awful lot to who I am. But it was, “Wait, this is, this is my shot, and I'm going to go try other things.” I love ambiguity, I'm very curious. Have a growth mindset and have a perhaps paradoxical mix of being self-assured, but perhaps early on, a bit too, a bit too, what's the word I was thinking of? I wrote this down — a bit too measured, OK, in other words, risk taking. And there were a few instances where I realized, “Hey, man, dude, take some risk. What's the downside? And if it isn't you, who else?” So it was that mindset that helped me muscle through and determine that, coupled with the fact that the Air Force paid for me to go to graduate school, they had programs in Boston, and so I got an MBA, and I did that at night. I had a great commander who let me take classes during the day when I wasn't traveling. It was wonderful. It was there that I was exposed to elements of business and in financial services, which ultimately drew me into financial services when I separated from active duty. Naviere Walkewicz 13:17 Well, I love that, because first you talked about a commander that saw, “How can I help you be your best version of yourself?” And I think the other piece of financial service, because I had to dabble in that as well — the second word is service. And so you've never stopped serving in all the things that you've done. So you took that leap, that risk. Is that something that you felt developed while you're at the Academy, or it's just part of your ethos. Mike Ott 13:41 It developed. It matured. I learned how to apply it more meaningfully at the Academy after a couple, three moments, where I realized that I can talk a little bit about mentoring and then I can come back to that, but mentoring — I don't know, I don't recall having heard that term as a mechanism for helping someone develop. I'm sure we used it when I was a cadet at the Academy and out of the Academy, and having been gone through different programs and banking and different graduate programs, the term comes up an awful lot. You realize, wow, there's something there helping the next generation, but also the reciprocity of learning from that generation yourself. I didn't really understand the whole mentoring concept coming out of Chicago and getting here, and just thought things were very hierarchical, very, very command structure, and it was hit the standards or else. And that that's not a bad mindset, right? But it took me a little while to figure out that there's a goodness factor that comes with the values that we have at the Academy, and it's imbued in each one of you know, service excellence, all of those pieces. But for the most part, fellow cadets and airmen and women want to help others. I mean, it's in service. It's in our DNA. Man that blew right past me. I had no idea, and I remember at one point I was entering sophomore year, and I was asked to be a glider instructor. I'd done the soaring and jumping program over the summer, and like, “Hey, you know you're not too bad at glider. You want to be an instructor?” At the time, that was pretty big deal, yeah, glider instructors. Like, “Yeah, no, I'm not going to do that, you know? I've got to study. Like, look at my GPA.” That didn't really matter. “And I'm going to go up to Boulder and go chase women.” Like, I was going to meet women, right? So, like, but I didn't understand that, that that mechanism, that mentoring mechanism, isn't always bestowed upon a moment or a coupling of individuals. There are just good people out there that see goodness in others that want to help them through that. I had no clue, but that was a turning point for me.   Naviere Walkewicz 15:56 Because you said no.   Mike Ott 15:58 I said no, right? And it was like what, you know, a couple months later, I remember talking with somebody like, “Yep, swing and a miss,” right? But after that, it changed how I was going to apply this self-assuredness, not bravado, but willingness to try new things, but with a willingness to be less measured. Why not? Trust the system. Trust the environment that you're in, the environment that we're in, you were in, I was in, that we're representing right now, it is a trusted environment. I didn't know that. And there were a lot of environments when I was being raised, they weren't trusted environments. And so you have a sort of mental callous mindset in many ways, and that that vigilance, that sense of sentinel is a good protection piece, but it prevents, it prevents... It doesn't allow for the membrane to be permeated, right? And so that trust piece is a big deal. I broke through after that, and I figured it out, and it helped me, and it helped me connect a sense of self-assuredness to perhaps being less measured, more willing to take ambiguity. You can be self-assured but not have complete belief in yourself, OK? And it helped me believe in myself more. I still wish I'd have been glider instructor. What a knucklehead. My roommate wound up becoming one. Like, “You, son of a rat, you.”   Naviere Walkewicz 17:29 So tell me, when did the next opportunity come up where you said yes, and what did that look like in your journey? Mike Ott 17:36 I was a lieutenant. I was a lieutenant, and I was looking for a new role. I was stationed at Hanscom Field, and I was working at one program office, and I bumped — I was the athletic officer for the base with some other folks, and one of the colonels was running a different program, and he had gotten to know me and understand how I operated, what I did, and he said, “Hey, Ott, I want you to come over to my program.” And I didn't know what the program was, but I trusted him, and I did it blindly. I remember his name, Col. Holy Cross. And really good guy. And yeah, I got the tap on the shoulder. Didn't blink. Didn't blink. So that was just finishing up second lieutenant. Naviere Walkewicz 18:26 What a lesson. I mean, something that stuck with you as a cadet, and not that it manifested in regret, but you realized that you missed that opportunity to grow and experience and so when it came around again, what a different… So would you say that as you progress, then you know, because at this point you're a lieutenant, you know, you took on this new role, what did you learn about yourself? And then how did that translate to the decision to move from active duty to the Reserve and into… Mike Ott 18:56 You'll note what I didn't do when I left active duty was stay in the defense, acquisition, defense engineering space. I made a hard left turn…   Naviere Walkewicz 19:13 Intentionally.   Mike Ott 19:14 Intentionally. And went into financial services. And that is a hard left turn away from whether it's military DOD, military industrial complex, working for one of the primes, or something like that. And my mindset was, “If I'm not the guy in the military making the decision, setting strategy and policy…” Like I was an O-3. Like, what kind of policy am I setting? Right? But my point was, if I'm not going to, if I may, if I decided to not stay in the military, I wasn't going to do anything that was related to the military, right, like, “Let's go to green pastures. Set myself apart. Find ways to compete…” Not against other people. I don't think I need to beat the hell out of somebody. I just need to make myself better every day. And that's the competition that I just love, and I love it  it's greenfield unknown. And why not apply my skills in an area where they haven't been applied and I can learn? So as an active-duty person — to come back and answer your question — I had worked some great bosses, great bosses, and they would have career counseling discussions with me, and I was asked twice to go to SOS in-residence. I turned it down, you know, as I knew. And then the third time my boss came to me. He's like, “OK, what are you doing? Idiot. Like, what are you doing?” That was at Year 5. And I just said, “Hey, sir, I think I'm going to do something different.” Naviere Walkewicz 20:47 Didn't want to take the slot from somebody else.   Mike Ott 20:49 That's right. Right. And so then it was five months, six months later, where I put in my papers. I had to do a little more time because of the grad school thing, which is great. And his commander, this was a two-star that I knew as well, interviewed me and like, one final, like, “What are you doing?” He's like, “You could have gone so far in the Air Force.” And I looked at the general — he was a super-good dude. I said, “What makes you think I'm not going to do well outside of the Air Force?” And he smiled. He's like, “Go get it.” So we stayed in touch. Great guy. So it had nothing to do with lack of fulfillment or lack of satisfaction. It had more to do with newness, curiosity, a challenge in a different vein. Naviere Walkewicz 21:30 So let's walk into that vein. You entered into this green pasture. What was that experience like? Because you've just been in something so structured. And I mean, would you say it was just structured in a different way? Mike Ott 21:48 No, not structured. The industry… So, I separated, tried an engineering job for about eight months. Hated it. I was, I was development engineer at Ford Motor Company, great firm. Love the organization, bored stiff, right? Just not what I wanted to do, and that's where I just quit. Moved back to Chicago, where I'm from, and started networking and found a role with an investment bank, ABN AMRO, which is a large Dutch investment bank that had begun to establish itself in the United States. So their headquarters in Chicago and I talked fast enough where somebody took a bet on me and was brought into the investment banking arm where I was on the capital markets team and institutional equities. So think of capital markets, and think of taking companies public and distributing those shares to large institutions, pensions funds, mutual funds, family offices.   Naviere Walkewicz 22:48 So a lot of learning and excitement for you.   Mike Ott 22:51 Super fun. And so the industry is very structured. How capital is established, capital flows, very regulated. We've got the SEC, we've got the FDIC, a lot of complex regulations and compliance matters. That's very, very, very structured. But there was a free-wheelingness in the marketplace. And if you've seen Wolf of Wall Street and things like that, some of that stuff happened. Crazy! And I realized that with my attitude, sense of placing trust in people before I really knew them, figuring that, “OK, what's the downside? I get nipped in the fan once, once or twice. But if I can thrust trust on somebody and create a relationship where they're surprised that I've trusted them, it's probably going to build something reciprocal. So learn how to do that.” And as a young fellow on the desk, wound up being given more responsibility because I was able to apply some of the basic tenets of leadership that you learned and I learned at the Academy. And face it, many of the men and women that work on Wall Street or financial services simply haven't gone to the Academy. It's just, it's the nature of numbers — and don't have that experience. They have other experiences. They have great leadership experiences, but they don't have this. And you and I may take it for granted because we were just four years of just living through it. It oozed in every moment, every breath, every interaction, every dialog, it was there.But we didn't know it was being poured in, sprinkled across as being showered. We were being showered in it. But I learned how to apply that in the relationships that I built, knowing that the relationships that I built and the reputation that I built would be lasting and impactful and would be appropriate investments for the future endeavors, because there's always a future, right? So it wasn't… again, lot of compliance, lot of regulations, but just the personalities. You know, I did it for the challenge, right? I did it because I was curious. I did it because I wanted to see if I could succeed at it. There were other folks that did it simply because it was for the money. And many, some of them made it. They might have sold their soul to get there. Some didn't make it. Maybe it wasn't the right pursuit for them in the first place. And if I go back to mentoring, which we talked about a little bit, and I help young men and women, cadets or maybe even recent grads, my guidance to them is, don't chase the money, chase the environment, right? And chase the environment that allows you to find your flow and contribute to that environment. The money will come. But I saw it — I've seen it with grads. I've seen it with many of the folks that didn't make it in these roles in financial services, because I thought, “Hey, this is where the money is.” It might be. But you have to go back to the basis of all this. How are you complected? What are your values? Do they align with the environment that you're in? And can you flow in a way where your strengths are going to allow success to happen and not sell your soul? Naviere Walkewicz 26:26 Yeah, you said two things that really stood out to me in that —the first one was, you know, trusting, just starting from a place of trust and respect, because the opportunity to build a relationship faster, and also there's that potential for future something. And then the second thing is the environment and making sure it aligns with your values. Is that how you got to MOBE? Mike Ott 26:50 Yeah, I would say how I got to MOBE, that certainly was a factor. Good question.   Naviere Walkewicz 26:57 The environment, I feel, is very much aligned Mike Ott 27:00 Very much so and then… But there's an element of reputation and relationship that allowed me to get there. So now I'm lucky to be a part of this firm. We're 250 people. We will do $50 million of revenue. We're growing nicely. I've been in health care for four years. Now, we are we're more than just healthcare. I mean, it's deep data. We can get into some of that later, but I had this financial services background. I was drawn to MOBE, but I had established a set of relationships with people at different investment banks, with other families that had successfully built businesses and just had relationships. And I was asked to come on to the board because MOBE, at the time, great capabilities, but struggled with leadership during COVID. Lot of companies did. It's not an indictment as to the prior CEO, but he and the team struggled to get through COVID. So initially I was approached to come on to the board, and that was through the founders of the firm who had known me for 20 years and knew my reputation, because I'd done different things at the investment bank, I'd run businesses at US Bank, which is a large commercial bank within the country, and they needed someone that… They cared very little about health care experience, which is good for me, and it was more around a sense of leadership. They knew my values. They trusted me. So initially I was asked to come onto the board, and that evolved into, “No, let's just do a whole reset and bring you on as the CEO.” Well, let's go back to like, what makes me tick. I love ambiguity. I love a challenge. And this has been a bit of a turnaround in that great capabilities, but lost its way in COVID, because leadership lost its way. So there's a lot of resetting that needed to occur. Corpus of the firm, great technology, great capabilities, but business model adaptation, go to market mechanisms and, frankly, environment. Environment. But I was drawn to the environment because of the people that had founded the organization. The firm was incubated within a large pharmaceutical firm. This firm called Upsher-Smith, was a Minnesota firm, the largest private and generic pharmaceutical company in the country, and sold for an awful lot of money, had been built by this family, sold in 2017 and the assets that are MOBE, mostly data, claims, analysis capabilities stayed separate, and so they incubated that, had a little bit of a data sandbox, and then it matriculated to, “Hey, we've got a real business here.” But that family has a reputation, and the individuals that founded it, and then ultimately found MOBE have a reputation. So I was very comfortable with the ambiguity of maybe not knowing health care as much as the next guy or gal, but the environment I was going into was one where I knew this family and these investors lived to high ethical standards, and there's many stories as to how I know that, but I knew that, and that gave me a ton of comfort. And then it was, “We trust you make it happen. So I got lucky. Naviere Walkewicz 30:33 Well, you're, I think, just the way that you're wired and the fact that you come from a place of trust, obviously, you know, OK, I don't have the, you know, like the medical background, but there are a lot of experts here that I'm going to trust to bring that expertise to me. And I'm going to help create an environment that they can really thrive in. Mike Ott 30:47 I'm certain many of our fellow alum have been in this experience, had these experiences where a leader worth his or her salt should be comfortable not being the smartest gal or guy in the room. In fact, you should strive for that to be the case and have a sense of lack of hubris and proudly acknowledge what you don't know. But what I do know is how to set vision. What I do know is how to move people without authority. What I do know is how to resource. And that's what you do if you want to move a mission, whether it's in the military, small firm like us that's getting bigger, or, you know, a big organization. You can't know it all. Naviere Walkewicz 31:30 So something you just mentioned that I think a lot of our listeners would really like, would love a little bit to peel us back a little bit. You said, “I know how to set a vision. I know how to…” I think it was move…   Mike Ott 31:45 Move people without authority and prioritize.   Naviere Walkewicz 31:47 But can we talk a little bit about that? Because I think that is really a challenge that some of our you know younger leaders, or those early in their leadership roles struggle with. Maybe, can you talk a little bit about that? Mike Ott 32:01 For sure, I had some — again, I tried to do my best to apply all the moments I had at the Academy and the long list of just like, “What were you thinking?” But the kindness piece comes through and… Think as a civilian outside looking in. They look at the military. It's very, very, very structured, OK, but the best leaders the men and women for whom you and I have served underneath or supported, never once barked an order, OK? They expressed intent, right? And you and I and all the other men and women in uniform, if we were paying attention, right, sought to execute the mission and satisfaction of that intent and make our bosses' bosses' jobs easier. That's really simple. And many outsiders looking in, we get back to just leadership that are civilians. They think, “Oh my gosh, these men and women that are in the military, they just can't assimilate. They can't make it in the civilian world.” And they think, because we come from this very, very hierarchical organization, yes, it is very hierarchical — that's a command structure that's necessary for mission execution — but the human part, right? I think military men and women leaders are among the best leaders, because guess what? We're motivating men and women — maybe they get a pat on the back. You didn't get a ribbon, right? Nobody's getting a year-end bonus, nobody's getting a spot bonus, nobody's getting equity in the Air Force, and it's gonna go public, right? It's just not that. So the best men and women that I for whom I've worked with have been those that have been able to get me to buy in and move and step up, and want to demonstrate my skills in coordination with others, cross functionally in the organization to get stuff done. And I think if there's anything we can remind emerging graduates, you know, out of the Academy, is: Don't rely on rank ever. Don't rely on rank. I had a moment: I was a dorky second lieutenant engineer, and we were launching a new system. It was a joint system for Marines, Navy and Air Force, and I had to go from Boston to Langley quite often because it was a TAC-related system, Tactical Air Force-related system. And the I was the program manager, multi-million dollar program for an interesting radio concept. And we were putting it into F-15s, so in some ground-based situations. And there was this E-8, crusty E-8, smoked, Vietnam, all these things, and he was a comms dude, and one of the systems was glitching. It just wasn't working, right? And we were getting ready to take this thing over somewhere overseas. And he pulls alongside me, and it's rather insubordinate, but it was a test, right? He's looking at me, Academy guy, you know, second lieutenant. He was a master sergeant, and he's like, “Well, son, what are we going to do now?” In other words, like, “We're in a pickle. What are we going to do now?” But calling me son. Yeah, it's not appropriate, right? If I'd have been hierarchical and I'd relied on rank, I probably would have been justified to let him have it. Like, that's playing short ball, right? I just thought for a second, and I just put my arm around him. I said, “Gee, Dad, I was hoping you're gonna help me.” And mother rat, we figured it out, and after that, he was eating out of my hand. So it was a test, right? Don't be afraid to be tested but don't take the bait. Naviere Walkewicz 35:46 So many good just lessons in each of these examples. Can you share a time at MOBE when you've seen someone that has been on your team that has demonstrated that because of the environment you've created? Mike Ott 35:57 For sure. So I've been running the firm now for about three and a half years. Again, have adapted and enhanced our capabilities, changed the business model a bit, yet functioning in our approach to the marketplace remains the same. We help people get better, and we get paid based on the less spend they have in the system. Part of some of our principles at MOBE are pretty simple, like, eat, sleep, move, smile, all right. And then be thoughtful with your medication. We think that medicine is an aid, not a cure. Your body's self-healing and your mind controls your body.   Naviere Walkewicz 36:32 Eat, sleep, move, smile. Love that.   Mike Ott 36:35 So what's happening with MOBE, and what I've seen is the same is true with how I've altered our leadership team. I've got some amazing leaders — very, very, very accomplished. But there are some new leaders because others just didn't fit in. There wasn't the sense of communal trust that I expected. There was too much, know-it-all'ing going on, right? And I just won't have that. So the easiest way to diffuse that isn't about changing head count, but it's around exhibiting vulnerability in front of all these folks and saying, “Look, I don't know that, but my lead pharmacist here, my lead clinician here, helped me get through those things.” But I do have one leader right, who is our head of vice president of HR, a woman who grew up on a farm in southern Minnesota, who has come to myself and our president and shared that she feels liberated at MOBE because, though this firm is larger than one that she served as a director of HR, previously, she's never had to look — check her six, look right, look left and seek alignment to ensure she's harmonizing with people. Naviere Walkewicz 37:49 Can you imagine being in an environment like that? Mike Ott 38:51 It's terrible, it's toxic, and it's wrong. Leaders, within the organization, I think you're judged more by what you don't do and the actions that you don't take. You can establish trust, and you will fortify that trust when you share with the team as best you can, so long as it's nothing inappropriate, where you made a mistake, where we went wrong. What did we learn from that? Where are we going to pivot? How we're going to apply that learning to make it better, as opposed to finding blame, pointing the finger or not even acknowledging? That happens all the time, and that toxicity erodes. And regretfully, my VP of HR in prior roles experienced that, and I don't have time. Good teams shouldn't have time to rehearse the basic values of the firm. We don't have time the speed of business is like this [snaps]. So if I can build the team of men and women that trust one another, can stay in their lanes, but also recognize that they're responsible for helping run the business, and look over at the other lanes and help their fellow leaders make adjustments without the indictful comment or without sort of belittling or shaming. That's what good teams, do. You, and I did that in the Air Force, but it is not as common as you would think. Naviere Walkewicz 39:11 20 we've been talking about MOBE, and you know, the environment you're creating there, and just the way that you're working through innovation. Let's talk a little bit how you're involved with DIU, the Defense Innovation Unit. Mike Ott 39:21 Again, it's reputation in relationships. And it was probably 2010, I get a call from a fellow grad, '87 grad who was living in the Beltway, still in uniform. He was an O-5 I was an O-5. Just doing the Academy liaison work, helping good young men and women that wanted to go to the Academy get in. And that was super satisfying, thought that would be the end of my Reserve career and super fun. And this is right when the first Obama administration came in, and one of his edicts and his admin edicts was, we've got to find ways to embrace industry more, right? We can't rely on the primes, just the primes. So those were just some seeds, and along with a couple other grads, created what is now called Joint Reserve Directorate, which was spawned DIUX, which was DIU Experimental, is spawned from. So I was the owner for JRD, and DIUX as a reserve officer. And that's how we all made colonel is we were working for the chief technology officer of the Defense Department, the Hon. Zach Lemnios, wonderful fellow. Civilian, didn't have much military experience, but boy, the guy knew tech — semiconductors and areas like that. But this was the beginning of the United States recognizing that our R&D output, OK, in the aggregate, as a fund, as a percentage of GDP, whether it's coming out of the commercial marketplace or the military DoD complex, needs to be harnessed against the big fight that we have with China. We can see, you know, we've known about that for 30 years. So this is back 14 years ago. And the idea was, let's bring in men and women — there was a woman in our group too that started this area — and was like, “How do we create essential boundary span, boundary spanners, or dual-literacy people that are experiences in capital markets, finance, how capital is accumulated, innovation occurs, but then also how that applies into supporting the warfighter. So we were given a sandbox. We were given a blank slate.   Naviere Walkewicz 41:37 It's your happy place.   Mike Ott 41:38 Oh, super awesome. And began to build out relationships at Silicon Valley with commercial entities, and developed some concepts that are now being deployed with DIU and many other people came in and brought them all to life. But I was lucky enough after I retired from the Reserves as a colonel to be asked to come back as an adviser, because of that background and that experience, the genesis of the organization. So today I'm an unpaid SGE — special government employee — to help DIU look across a variety of different domains. And so I'm sure many of our listeners know it's key areas that we've got to harness the commercial marketplace. We know that if you go back into the '70s, ‘60s and ‘70s, and creation of the internet, GPS, precision munitions and all of that, the R&D dollars spent in the aggregate for the country, 95% came out of DOD is completely flip flopped today. Completely flipped. We happen to live in an open, free society. We hope to have capital markets and access a lot of that technology isn't burdened like it might be in China. And so that's the good and bad of this open society that we have. We've got to find ways. So we, the team does a lot of great work, and I just help them think about capital markets, money flows, threat finance. How you use financial markets to interdict, listen, see signals, but then also different technologies across cyberspace, autonomy, AI. Goodness gracious, I'm sure there's a few others. There's just so much. So I'm just an interloper that helps them think about that, and it's super fun that they think that I can be helpful. Naviere Walkewicz 43:29 Well, I think I was curious on how, because you love the ambiguity, and that's just something that fills your bucket — so while you're leading MOBE and you're creating something very stable, it sounds like DIU and being that kind of special employee, government employee, helps you to fill that need for your ambiguous side.   Mike Ott 43:48 You're right. You're right.   Naviere Walkewicz 43:49 Yeah, I thought that's really fascinating. Well, I think it's wonderful that you get to create that and you just said, the speed of business is this [snaps]. How do you find time in your life to balance what you also put your values around — your health — when you have such an important job and taking care of so many people? Mike Ott 44:06 I think we're all pretty disciplined at the Academy, right? I remain that way, and I'm very, very — I'm spring loaded to ‘no,' right? “Hey, do you want to go do this?” Yeah, I want to try do, I want to do a lot of things, but I'm spring loaded. So like, “Hey, you want to go out and stay, stay up late and have a drink?” “No,” right? “Do you want to do those things?” So I'm very, very regimented in that I get eight hours of sleep, right? And even somebody, even as a cadet, one of the nicknames my buddies gave me was Rip Van Ott, right? Because I'm like, “This is it.” I was a civil engineer. One of my roommates was an astro guy, and I think he pulled an all-nighter once a week.   Naviere Walkewicz 45:46 Oh, my goodness, yeah.   Mike Ott 45:50 Like, “Dude, what are you doing?” And it wasn't like he was straight As. I was clearly not straight As, but I'm like, “What are you doing? That's not helpful. Do the work ahead of time.” I think I maybe pulled three or four all-nighters my entire four years. Now, it's reflected in my GPA. I get that, but I finished the engineering degree. But sleep matters, right? And some things are just nonnegotiable, and that is, you know, exercise, sleep and be kind to yourself, right? Don't compare. If you're going to compare, compare yourself to yesterday, but don't look at somebody who is an F-15 pilot, and you're not. Like, I'm not. My roommate, my best man at my wedding, F-15 pilot, Test Pilot School, all these things, amazing, amazing, awesome, and super, really, really, happy and proud for him, but that's his mojo; that's his flow, right? If you're gonna do any comparison, compare yourself to the man or woman you were yesterday and “Am I better?”. Naviere Walkewicz 44:48 The power of “no” and having those nonnegotiables is really important. Mike Ott 45:53 Yeah, no, I'm not doing that. Naviere Walkewicz 45:56 I think sometimes we're wired for a “we can take on… we can take it on, we can take it on, we can take it on. We got this.” Mike Ott 46:03 For sure. Oh, my goodness. And I have that discussion with people on my team from time to time as well, and it's most often as it relates to an individual on the team that's struggling in his or her role, or whether it's by you know, if it's by omission and they're in the wrong role, that's one thing. If it's by commission, well, be a leader and execute and get that person out of there, right? That's wrong, but from time to time, it's by omission, and somebody is just not well placed. And I've seen managers, I can repatriate this person. I can get him or her there, and you have to stop for a second and tell that leader, “Yeah, I know you can. I'm certain that the only thing you were responsible for was to help that person fulfill the roles of the job that they're assigned. You could do it.” But guess what? You've got 90% of your team that needs care, nurturing and feeding. They're delivering in their function, neglect, there destroys careers, and it's going to destroy the business. So don't, don't get caught up in that. Yeah. Pack it on. Pack it on. Pack it on. You're right. When someone's in the crosshairs, I want to be in the crosshairs with you, Naviere, and Ted, and all the people that you and I affiliate with, but on the day-to-day, sustained basis, right to live, you know, to execute and be fulfilled, both in the mission, the work and stay fit, to fight and do it again. You can't. You can't. And a lot of a little bit of no goes a long way. Naviere Walkewicz 47:40 That is really good to hear. I think that's something that a lot of leaders really don't share. And I think that's really wonderful that you did. I'd like to take a little time and pivot into another area that you're heavily involved, philanthropy side. You know, you've been with the Falcon Foundation. Where did you find that intent inside of you? I mean, you always said the Academy's been part of you, but you found your way back in that space in other ways. Let's talk about that. Mike Ott 48:05 Sure. Thank you. I don't know. I felt that service is a part of me, right? And it is for all of us, whether you stay in the military or not. Part of my financial services jobs have been in wealth management. I was lucky enough to run that business for US Bank in one of my capacities, and here I am now in health care, health care of service. That aligns with wanting things to be better across any other angle. And the philanthropic, philanthropic side of things — I probably couldn't say that word when I was a cadet, but then, you know, I got out and we did different volunteer efforts. We were at Hanscom Field raising money for different organizations, and stayed with it, and always found ways to have fun with it. But recognized I couldn't… It was inefficient if I was going to be philanthropic around something that I didn't have a personal interest in. And as a senior executive at US Bank, we were all… It was tacit to the role you had roles in local foundations or community efforts. And I remember sitting down with my boss, the CFO of the bank, and then the CEO, and they'd asked me to go on to a board, and it had to do with a museum that I had no interest in, right? And I had a good enough relationship with these, with these guys, to say, “Look, I'm a good dude. I'm going to be helpful in supporting the bank. And if this is a have to, all right, I'll do it, but you got the wrong guy. Like, you want me to represent the bank passionately, you know, philanthropically, let me do this. And they're like, “OK, great.” So we pivoted, and I did other things. And the philanthropic piece of things is it's doing good. It's of service for people, entities, organizations, communities or moments that can use it. And I it's just very, very satisfying to me. So my wife and I are pretty involved that way, whether it's locally, with different organizations, lot of military support. The Academy, we're very fond of. It just kind of became a staple. Naviere Walkewicz 50:35 Did you find yourself also gravitating toward making better your community where you grew up? Mike Ott 50:41 Yeah, yeah, yeah. One of my dear friends that grew up in the same neighborhood, he wound up going to the Naval Academy, and so we're we've been friends for 50 years. Seventh grade.   Naviere Walkewicz 50:53 Same counselor? Mike Ott50:54 Yeah, no. Different counselor, different high school. His parents had a little bit of money, and they, he wound up going to a Catholic school nearby. But great guy, and so he and I, he runs a business that serves the VA in Chicago, and I'm on the board, and we do an awful lot of work. And one of the schools we support is a school on the south side, largely African American students and helping them with different STEM projects. It's not going to hit above the fold of a newspaper, but I could give a rat, doesn't matter to me, seeing a difference, seeing these young men and women. One of them, one of these boys, it's eye watering, but he just found out that he was picked for, he's applying to the Naval Academy, and he just found out that he got a nomination.   Naviere Walkewicz 51:44 Oh my goodness, I just got chills.   Mike Ott 51:46 And so, yeah, yeah, right, right. But it's wonderful. And his parents had no idea anything like that even existed. So that's one that it's not terribly formal, but boy, it looks great when you see the smile on that kid and the impact on that individual, but then the impact it leaves on the community, because it's clear opportunity for people to aspire because they know this young man or this young woman, “I can do that too.” Naviere Walkewicz 52:22 Wow. So he got his nomination, and so he would start technically making class of 2030?   Mike Ott 52:27 That's right. Naviere Walkewicz 52:28 Oh, how exciting. OK Well, that's a wonderful…   Mike Ott 52:27 I hope, I hope, yeah, he's a great kid. Naviere Walkewicz 52:33 Oh, that is wonderful. So you talk about, you know that spirit of giving — how have you seen, I guess, in your journey, because it hasn't been linear. We talked about how you know progression is not linear. How have you grown throughout these different experiences? Because you kind of go into a very ambiguous area, and you bring yourself, and you grow in it and you make it better. But how have you grown? What does that look like for you? Mike Ott 53:02 After having done it several times, right, i.e. entering the fray of an ambiguous environment business situation, I developed a better system and understanding of what do I really need to do out of the gates? And I've grown that way and learn to not be too decisive too soon. Decisiveness is a great gift. It's really, really it's important. It lacks. It lacks because there are too many people, less so in the military, that want to be known for having made… don't want to be known for having made a bad decision, so they don't take that risk. Right, right, right. And so that creates just sort of the static friction, and you've just got to have faith and so, but I've learned how to balance just exactly when to be decisive. And the other thing that I know about me is I am drawn to ambiguity. I am drawn… Very, very curious. Love to learn, try new things, have a range of interests and not very good at any one thing, but that range helps me in critical thinking. So I've learned to, depending on the situation, right, listen, listen, and then go. It isn't a formula. It's a flow, but it's not a formula. And instinct matters when to be decisive. Nature of the people with whom you're working, nature of the mission, evolution, phase of the organization or the unit that you're in. Now is the time, right? So balancing fostering decisiveness is something that that's worth a separate discussion. Naviere Walkewicz 54:59 Right. Wow. So all of these things that you've experienced and the growth that you've had personally — do you think about is this? Is this important to you at all, the idea of, what is your legacy, or is that not? Mike Ott 55:13 We talked a little bit about this beforehand, and I thought I've got to come up with something pithy, right? And I really, I really don't.   Naviere Walkewicz 55:18 Yeah, you don't.   Mike Ott 55:19 I don't think of myself as that. I'm very proud of who I am and what I've done in the reputation that I have built. I don't need my name up in lights. I know the life that I'm living and the life that I hope to live for a lot longer. My legacy is just my family, my children, the mark that I've left in the organizations that I have been a part of.   Naviere Walkewicz 55:58 And the communities that you've touched, like that gentleman going and getting his nomination. I'm sure.   Mike Ott 56:04 Yeah, I don't… having been a senior leader, and even at MOBE, I'm interviewed by different newspapers and all that. Like I do it because I'm in this role, and it's important for MOBE, but I'm not that full of myself, where I got to be up in lights. So I just want to be known as a man that was trustworthy, fun, tried to meet people where they are really had flaws, and sought to overcome them with the few strengths that he had, and moved everything forward. Naviere Walkewicz 56:33 Those are the kind of leaders that people will run through fire for. That's amazing. I think that's a wonderful I mean that in itself, it's like a living legacy you do every day. How can I be better than I was yesterday? And that in itself, is a bit of your living and that's really cool. Well, one of the things we like to ask is, “What is something you're doing every day to be better as a leader?” And you've covered a lot, so I mean, you could probably go back to one of those things, but is there something that you could share with our listeners that you do personally every day, to be better? Mike Ott 57:05 Exercise and read every day, every day, and except Fridays. Fridays I take… that's like, I'll stretch or just kind of go for a walk. But every day I make it a moment, you know, 45 minutes to an hour, something and better for my head, good for my body, right? That's the process in the hierarchy of way I think about it. And then read. Gen. Mattis. And I supported Gen. Mattis as a lieutenant colonel before I wanted to and stuff at the Pentagon. And he I supported him as an innovation guy for JFCOM, where he was the commander. And even back then, he was always talking about reading is leading none of us as military leaders… And I can't hold the candle to the guy, but I learned an awful lot, and I love his mindset, and that none of us can live a life long enough to take In all the leadership lessons necessary to help us drive impact. So you better be reading about it all the time. And so I read probably an hour every night, every day.   Naviere Walkewicz 58:14 What are you reading right now?   Mike Ott 58:15 Oh, man, I left it on the plane! I was so bummed. Naviere Walkewicz 58:17 Oh, that's the worst. You're going to have to get another copy. Mike Ott 58:22 Before I came here, I ordered it from Barnes & Noble so to me at my house when I get home. Love history and reading a book by this wonderful British author named Anne Reid. And it's, I forget the title exactly, but it's how the allies at the end of World War I sought to influence Russia and overcome the Bolsheviks. They were called the interventionalists, and it was an alliance of 15 different countries, including the U.S., Britain, France, U.K., Japan, Australia, India, trying to thwart, you know, the Bolshevik Revolution — trying to thwart its being cemented. Fascinating, fascinating. So that's what I was reading until I left it on the plane today. Naviere Walkewicz 59:07 How do you choose what to read? Mike Ott 59:10 Listen, write, love history. Love to read Air Force stuff too. Just talk to friends, right? You know, they've learned how to read like me. So we get to talk and have fun with that. Naviere Walkewicz 59:22 That's great. Yeah, that's wonderful. Well, the last question I'd like to ask you, before I want to make sure you have an opportunity to cover anything we didn't, is what is something you would share with others that they can do to become better leaders? Maybe they start doing it now, so in the future, they're even stronger as a leader. Mike Ott 59:42 Two things I would say, and try to have these exist in the same breath in the same moment, is have the courage to make it try and make it better every day, all right, and be kind to yourself, be forgiving. Naviere Walkewicz 59:59 That's really powerful. Can you share an example? And I know I that's we could just leave it there, but being courageous and then being kind to yourself, they're almost on two opposite sides. Have you had, can you share an example where I guess you've done that right? You had to be you were courageous and making something better, and maybe it didn't go that way, so you have to be kind to yourself. Mike Ott 1:00:23 Yeah, happy to and I think any cadet will hear this story and go like, “Huh, wow, that's interesting.” And it also plays with the arc of progress isn't linear. I graduated in '85 went to flight school, got halfway through flight school, and there was a RIF, reduction in force. And our class, our flight class, I was flying jets, I was soloing. I was academically — super easy, flying average, right? You know, I like to joke that I've got the fine motor skills of a ham sandwich, right? You know, but, but I didn't finish flight school. And you think about this, here it is. I started in 1981 there were still vestiges of Vietnam. Everyone's going to be a fighter pilot. Kill, kill, kill. Blood makes the grass grow. All of that was there. And I remember when this happened, it was very frustrating for me. It was mostly the major root of frustration wasn't that I wasn't finishing flight school. It was the nature by which the determination that I wasn't finishing was made. And it was, it was a financial decision. We had too many guys and gals, and they were just finding, you know, average folks and then kicking them out. So our class graduated a lower percent than, I think, in that era, it was late '85, '86, maybe '87, but you can look at outflows, and it was interesting, they were making budget cuts. So there was a shaming part there, having gone to the Academy.   Naviere Walkewicz 1:02:02 And knowing since 9 years old. Mike Ott 1:20:04 Right, right, right, and I knew I wanted to go the Academy. I'd like to fly, let's check it out and see if it's for me. I would much rather have been not for me, had I made the decision I don't want to do this or that I was just unsafe and didn't want to do it. The way it turned out is, and this is where I learned a little bit about politics as well. In my class, again, I was very average. Like, nobody's ever going to say, like, yeah, I was going to go fly the Space Shuttle. Like, no way, right? Very, very average, but doing just fine. And a lot of guys and gals wanted to go be navigators, and that's great. I looked in the regs, and I learned this as a cadet, and it's helped me in business, too. If there's a rule, there's a waiver. Like, let me understand the regs, and I asked to go to a board. Instead of just submitting a letter to appeal, I asked to go to a board. And so I went to a board of an O-5 five, couple of threes O-4 four, and ultimately shared the essence of why I shouldn't be terminated in the program. And son of a gun, they agreed, and I still have the letter. The letter says, “Recommend Lt. Ott for reinstatement.” Nobody in my class has that letter, nobody makes the appeal. And I'm like, I'm going downstream. I'm going downstream. And that's the Chicago in me, and that's the piece about… but also move forward, but forgive yourself, and I'll get to that. And so I, I was thrilled, My goodness, and the argument I had is, like, look, you're just not keeping me current. You put me in the sim, and then you're waiting too long to put me in the jet. The regs don't allow for that. And like, you're right. So I'm assigned to go back to the jet. My pals are thrilled. I'm going to stay in the same class. I don't have to wash back. And then I get a call from the DO's office — director of operations — and it was from some civilian person so the DO overrode the board's decision. Heartbreaking. Heartbreaking.   Naviere Walkewicz 1:04:12 You were so high, you did all of your work. And then… Mike Ott 1:04:15 Yeah, and then heartbreaking and frustrating, and I guess the word is indignant: anger aroused through frustration. In that I figured it out. I knew exactly what's happening. I made the appeal and I won. And it wasn't I was expecting to be assigned to fly a fighter. It was like, “Just let me, let me express the merits of my capabilities. It's how the system is designed.” The son of a gun, I jumped in my car and I ran to base and I waited and reported in. He didn't really know who I was. That's because he didn't make a decision. It was just it was that decision, and that's how life comes at you. That's just how it is. It isn't linear. So how do you take that and then say, “Well, I'm going to be kind to myself and make something out of it.” And he went through, you know, a dissertation as to why, and I asked him if I could share my views, and it's pretty candid, and I just said, If my dad were something other than the Chicago policeman, and maybe if he was a senator or general officer, I wouldn't be sitting here. That lit him up, right? That lit him up. But I had to state my views. So I knew I was out of the program. Very, very frustrating. Could have had the mayor of Chicago call. Didn't do that, right? Like, OK, I understand where this is it. That was very frustrating and somewhat shaming. But where the forgiveness comes in and be kind to yourself, is that I ran into ground. I ran into ground and drove an outcome where I still… It's a moment of integrity. I drove an outcome like, there you go. But then what do you do? Forgive yourself, right? Because you didn't do anything wrong, OK? And you pivot. And I turned that into a moment where I started cold calling instructors at the Academy. Because, hey, now I owe the Air Force five years, Air Force is looking for, you know, things that I don't want to do. And thank goodness I had an engineering degree, and I cold called a guy at a base in Hanscom. And this is another tap on the shoulder.   Naviere Walkewicz 1:06:24 That's how you got to Hanscom. Gotcha.   Mike Ott 1:06:27 There was a friend who was Class of '83, a woman who was in my squadron, who was there. Great egg. And she's like, “Hey, I was at the O Club.” Called her. I said, “Hey, help me out. I got this engineering degree. I want to go to one of these bases. Called Lt. Col. Davis, right? I met him at the O Club. I called a guy, and he's like, “Yeah, let's do this.”   Naviere Walkewicz 1:06:44 Wow, I love that..   Mike Ott 1:06:46 It was fantastic So it's a long winded way, but progress isn't linear. And progressing through that and not being a victim, right, recognizing the conditions and the environment that I could control and those that I can't. Anything that I could control, I took advantage of and I sought to influence as best possible. Ran into ground and I feel great about it, and it turns out to be a testament of one of my best successes. Naviere Walkewicz 1:07:17 Wow. Thank you for sharing

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South Africa's economic story is balancing between risk and resolve, discipline and delivery. As the country prepares for its first Mid-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) under a coalition government, National Treasury faces a difficult equation: stabilise debt, restore credibility and still find space for growth. In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs is joined by Investec's Annabel Bishop, Tertia Jacobs, and Osa Mazwai to unpack the policy choices shaping the 2025 mini budget. Listen here or watch the discussion on Investec's YouTube channel. [Add link when live] We explore: • Why fiscal consolidation remains the cornerstone of market confidence • How a commodity windfall and better tax receipts are buying Treasury time • The debate over lowering the inflation target and what it means for growth • And whether South Africa's improving structural reforms can finally lift potential GDP Podcast key moments: 00:00 – Introduction 02:51 – What's behind the debt-to-GDP ratio divergence? 05:03 – How closely are markets watching South Africa's debt challenges? 06:40 – How does the debt trajectory intersect with SA's long-term growth prospects? 08:28 – Inflation targeting expectations 09:35 – Would a lower inflation target risk dampening nominal GDP? 11:36 – Revenue vs spending 13:36 – Searching for a new fiscal anchor 15:21 – Is SA on the path to fiscal consolidation? 17:12 – What's driving the government bond rally? 18:16 – Progress on structural reforms 20:44 – To what extent is the fiscal story intertwined with commodity cycles? 22:13 – What rating agencies are looking for 24:30 – How the mini budget could influence the MPC's tone on interest rates 25:57 – What would success look like for the 2025 MTBPS? Read more on www.investec.com/now Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business, and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what's moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business. Investec Focus Radio SA

2. LONDINIUM 91 CE. Seven Warnings, Part II. The conversation continued with Germanicus detailing the remaining maxims, noting that the United States seems to follow this list of strategic errors as if it were a program. (5) Never think "it will never happen to us"—this belief stems from American exceptionalism, the idea that the US is superior because "democracy makes us smarter." The shameful US withdrawal from Afghanistan was cited as a major instance of this failure, especially when contrasted with the Soviet withdrawal, which was conducted with dignity and left a regime that lasted three more years. The US, believing itself to be the "gods of war" after World War II, relied on the myth of technological superiority, a mindset preserved even in the proxy war in Ukraine where elites underestimated Russia based on GDP. The danger of biased judgment (Maxim 4) was re-emphasized through the Korean War, where the US despised the Chinese, who ultimately defeated the US in a strategic campaign. The Chinese military adapted to American fire with unconventional tactics, overwhelming US lines, a capability the US disallowed because it viewed the enemy as a "lesser force." This mindset gives a gift to the enemy, allowing them to rely on US unpreparedness (e.g., letting Russians build vast fortifications in Ukraine). (6) Never follow a strategic course of action that makes your enemy stronger—this requires understanding the enemy's source of strength (like the morale and spirit of the Taliban), which the US often fails to attack. The speakers applied this warning to potential US intervention in Venezuela, which is being encouraged by the opposition. The strategy of using overwhelming air power and insufficient ground forces—bombing them into submission—will fail and only make the enemy stronger. Insufficient tactics like leadership decapitation, even if inspired by Israeli actions, will not succeed if the enemy army chooses to resist. The centurions noted that the Romans consistently avoided one mistake: forgiving the enemy.

President Donald Trump just forced China into its most vulnerable position in decades. Trump wrapped up a weeklong trip to Asia and, after years of tension and economic warfare, negotiated a sweeping deal with Beijing. Victor Davis Hanson breaks down the specifics of the deal—including China's promise to stop the flow of fentanyl to Mexico—how this breakthrough happened, and what this means for the future of U.S.-China relations on today's episode of “Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words.” “ [China] sized up the domestic renaissance here at home—low inflation, basically 3% or below, 3%, probably, at the end of the year of GDP, stock market record levels, vast new investments—and they said: You know what? The United States is back. And the foreign—the atmosphere is very different. “Neutrals will probably join them. And their friends are emboldened. So, they've got new alliances. NATO is stronger than it's ever been. So, you add all of that up and the Chinese said to themselves the following: I think it's time to cut a deal. Not that we're gonna give up on trying to erode and subvert the United States.” (0:00) Trump and Xi's Deal (0:46) Why Now? (3:24) The Left's Weakness (6:39) U.S. Domestic Renaissance (8:50) China's Calculated Pause (9:54) The Future of US-China Relations

The ECB this week held its policy rate right at 2% with policymakers out in force claiming to everyone who might listen they're likely done at that level. Instead, GDP data from all over the continent just came out and showed there's more pringles yet to come from Europe. But there's also one big factor here few people are considering and it has to do with the 2% level itself.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisIn a world where markets swing on every headline, focus matters. That's why Eurodollar University offers One Big Weekly Theme — a disciplined, thematic analysis you can count on. If you don't have the time to go all the way to the depth of Eurodollar University's comprehensive Deep Dive Analysis and want the next best thing, One Big Weekly Theme is for you. eurodollaruniversity.substack.comhttps://eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Q3 US corporate earnings continue to report strong, with S&P 500 profits on track for 12% year-on-year growth and widespread beats on sales and margins. However, despite robust fundamentals, stocks reacting to positive reports have underperformed historically, weighed down by already-bullish investor positioning. An inverted put-call skew in the “Magnificent 7” suggests elevated optimism, often followed by short-term pullbacks. Meanwhile, fears of AI-fuelled overinvestment in tech appear overstated: while capital expenditure is rising, it remains modest as a share of revenue, free cash flow, and GDP. Looking at China, policy direction after the Fourth Plenum supports continued advancement in AI, semiconductors, and robotics, while the recent Xi-Trump meeting offers temporary relief on trade tensions. Though near-term consolidation is possible, structural drivers keep China tech and equities attractive for diversified portfolios.

Harvard economist Jason Furman joins Kyla Scanlon and Zaid Admani to unpack the state of the U.S. economy amid missing government data, the AI-driven boom, and rising talk of socialism. They explore how much of today's growth is fueled by AI spending versus real productivity, whether a bubble burst would trigger a recession, the Fed's latest rate cuts, and why Chipotle's burritos might be a better economic indicator than GDP.

The Demographic Need: Reframing Migration as an Economic Resource and Dismantling Exclusionary Borders.Gaia Vince discusses how humans are a migratory species that evolved in Africa and colonized the entire globe through movement. Historically, the US and European nations have used policies of brutality and cruelty to restrict movement, with many current border restrictions being recent. Vince highlights the current economic paradox: societies encourage the flow of goods but limit human labor, their largest economic resource, with some economists estimating that removing borders could double global GDP. A critical component of managing migration is investment: financial investment to expand northern cities and social investment in accepting that migrants are not "bad people" and promoting inclusivity. Furthermore, the global north faces a demographic crisis, as most developed nations are not producing enough babies to support their elderly populations, making immigration the necessary solution. 1953

Hear about travel to Bhutan as the Amateur Traveler talks to Dorji Dhratyul, the former head of Tourism for the Kingdom of Bhutan. This week's show is supported by the new Smart Travel Podcast. Travel smarter — and spend less — with help from NerdWallet. Check out Smart Travel ⁠⁠⁠here. Why should you go to Bhutan? Doji says, "I think when you're talking about globally in terms of tourism, we are talking about over-tourism. The tourism destinations are getting crowded, but as of now, Bhutan is still a very pristine, quiet, and silent place. Bhutan is that place where a visitor comes here, not just on a journey, but basically they come here as an inward journey." Bhutan is one of the few countries in the world that measures its success not by GDP but by Gross National Happiness. The small Himalayan kingdom regulates visitor numbers intentionally, following its “High Value, Low Volume” tourism policy. That means fewer crowds, pristine landscapes, and a deeply authentic experience. Dorji recommends beginning with the western region, home to the country's only international airport and some of its most iconic sites. ... https://amateurtraveler.com/travel-to-bhutan-2/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Silicon Bites Ep262 - Day 1,346 - 2025-10-31 | Russia's War Economy Is Eating Itself. The Kremlin's “military-Keynesian” sugar high is fading. The budget is creaking, sovereign reserves are thin, taxes are going up, and Russia's elites are grumbling – but are they plotting? Given the risks of being found out, and the unfortunate consequences of that, probably not. As one economist put it: the state is pouring money into things “destined to be burned on the battlefield.” We ask: is the crunch now worse—politically, if not statistically—than the 1990s? And how long can Putin keep the elites onside while the economy consumes itself?----------SOURCES: Carnegie Politika — Alexandra Prokopenko, “New Budget Confirms the Russian Public Is Paying for the War,” Oct 1, 2025Reuters — “Russian finance ministry proposes raising VAT…” Sept 24, 2025Financial Times — “Russia to raise value added tax rate to 22%…” Sept 2025Reuters — “Russia's budget deficit… Jan–May 2025 1.5% of GDP,” June 10, 2025Reuters — Central bank rate cut 50 bps to 16.5%, Oct 24, 2025Meduza — “Raising the pressure: Trump is hitting Russia with sanctions…,” Oct 28, 2025Meduza — “We expected the war to end” (elite attitudes), Jan 9, 2025The Moscow Times — “Russia's Labor Shortage Persists…,” July 31, 2025The Moscow Times (wire/Reuters) — “Russia plans debut sovereign yuan bond,” Oct 31, 2025----------SILICON CURTAIN FILM FUNDRAISERA project to make a documentary film in Ukraine, to raise awareness of Ukraine's struggle and in supporting a team running aid convoys to Ukraine's front-line towns.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------This is super important. There are so many Battalions in Ukraine, fighting to defend our freedoms, but lack basics such as vehicles. These are destroyed on a regular basis, and lack of transport is costs lives, and Ukrainian territory. Autumn Harvest: Silicon Curtain (Goal€22,000)https://car4ukraine.com/campaigns/autumn-harvest-silicon-curtain----------SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2025 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon Curtainhttps://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur events of the first half of the year in Lviv, Kyiv and Odesa were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. Any support you can provide for the fundraising campaign would be gratefully appreciated. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasWe need to scale up our support for Ukraine, and these events are designed to have a major impact. Your support in making it happen is greatly appreciated. All events will be recorded professionally and published for free on the Silicon Curtain channel. Where possible, we will also live-stream events.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Car4Ukraine - Providing 4x4 vehicles to Ukrainian warriors https://car4ukraine.com/campaignsSave Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Volunteer-run, US non-profit and UK charity supporting survival and recovery of Ukrainehttps://www.ukrainianaction.com/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/-----------

With the government shutdown delaying the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third quarter GDP estimate, economists turn to Fed models and private analysts. The verdict? The estimates vary but generally indicate that growth was positive, crediting business investment and consumer spending. Also in this episode: What private sector data says about the job market, why homebuyers are still waiting on the sidelines, and how banks are managing commercial real estate amid high office vacancy.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

With the government shutdown delaying the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third quarter GDP estimate, economists turn to Fed models and private analysts. The verdict? The estimates vary but generally indicate that growth was positive, crediting business investment and consumer spending. Also in this episode: What private sector data says about the job market, why homebuyers are still waiting on the sidelines, and how banks are managing commercial real estate amid high office vacancy.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

It's Thursday, October 30th, A.D. 2025. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Jonathan Clark Muslim Ugandan beat wife and kids for trusting Christ A Muslim man in Uganda beat his wife and two children last month for putting their faith in Christ. Kulusumu Namulondo had to be hospitalized along with her two children, ages twelve and nine. Her husband proceeded to demolish the building of the church she had visited. Namulondo described the attack to Morning Star News. She said, “My husband hit my son with the walking stick several times, and he soon fell down screaming and wailing in great pain . . . While my son was on the ground, my husband started beating up me and my daughter. Thank God, neighbors arrived, and my husband fled away.” In Luke 18:29-30, Jesus said, “Assuredly, I say to you, there is no one who has left house or parents or brothers or wife or children, for the sake of the kingdom of God, who shall not receive many times more in this present time, and in the age to come eternal life.” Help victims of Hurricane Melissa  in Jamaica and Cuba Hurricane Melissa struck Jamaica on Tuesday as a Category 5 storm. Melissa weakened to Category 3 before making landfall in Cuba yesterday.  The hurricane is one of the strongest ones on record in the Atlantic, killing dozens of people across the Caribbean. Christian charity organizations are mobilizing aid for victims of the hurricane. Samaritan's Purse announced it is “already preparing to respond as needed — with disaster relief specialists, materials, and aircraft all on standby.” You can give towards their relief effort through a link in our transcript today at TheWorldview.com.  Trump, Cruz and Johnson urge centrist Democrats to re-open gov't The Democrats in the U.S. Senate have now shut the U.S. government for 30 days, as they attempt to undo the provisions of President Trump's Big Beautiful Bill which ensured that only U.S. citizens would get taxpayer-funded health care. President Trump didn't pull any punches. TRUMP: “Today, I'm calling on every Senate Democrat to stop the madness, to let our country get back.   In the greatest moment in the history of our country, in terms of wealth, in terms of job creation, and in terms of investment coming in, these guys go on strike. It's really a shame! “So, I'm asking them to be smart. It's not working. They're getting killed in the polls. The public understands what they're doing. They're doing the wrong thing.” Republican Senator Ted Cruz of Texas explained that the Democrats have failed to stop the government shutdown. CRUZ: “Thirteen times now the Republicans have voted to open the government to pay the federal workers 13 times. The Democrats' party line have voted no, keep it shut down. Keep it shut down. Keep it shut down. “And at this point it's not even clear they have an exit ramp. I think they're going to continue this another week or two, and then at some point, seven or eight Democrats are going to have some sense come into them. I think it is very likely to be retiring Democrats who will never again face a primary election. So, they're more insulated from the crazy left wing base. “But we are watching performative art. We're not watching public policy. We're not watching elected officials. This is all about political saving Chuck Schumer's rear end.” And House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, described Senator Chuck Schumer as irredeemable. JOHNSON: “We have very important work to do here, and that's why we're pleading with them. Look, I think Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries are irredeemable at this point. I don't think they'll be able to tell [New York City Mayoral candidate Zohran] Mondami, [a socialist], in New York and his disciples that they voted to open the government. “I've given up on the leadership. So, we're trying to appeal to a handful of moderates or centrists who care more about the American people and will put the people's interest over their own and do the right thing in the Senate.  There's no point in me sitting down with Chuck Schumer. He's painted himself into a corner.” The Congressional Budget office said that the economy could lose $14 billion over two months unless the government is reopened. If you have a Democrat U.S. Senator, call 202-224-3121 and urge him or her to re-open the government immediately. Half of U.S. states scored poorly on religious liberty The Napa Legal Institute released its 2025 Faith and Freedom Index on Monday. The report ranks states in the U.S. from 0-100 based on how well they treat faith-based nonprofits.  The states with the highest rankings on the index are Alabama (72%), Kansas (69%), Indiana (68%), Texas (65%), and Mississippi (63%). The states with the lowest rankings are Michigan (31%), Washington (35%), Massachusetts (37%), Maryland (38%), and Illinois (38%).  Sadly, over half of the states scored below 50% on the religious liberty index.  Nvidia now valued at $5 trillion Nvidia became the first company yesterday to reach a market value of $5 trillion. The tech company started with video game processors. Now it is a major producer of computer chips for the artificial intelligence industry.  The record valuation follows growth announcements from the company, including plans to build seven supercomputers for the U.S. government.  Apple and Microsoft, two other tech companies, are not far behind with market valuations of around $4 trillion.  America's debt has surpassed $38 trillion The U.S. government's gross national debt surpassed $38 trillion last Wednesday. That's up a trillion dollars from just August of this year.  The U.S. government debt as a percentage of gross domestic product stood at 120% last year, according to the International Monetary Fund. That's one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the world. Only Japan, Venezuela, Greece, and Italy are higher.     (Look at the U.S. Debt clock.) Federal Reserve cut interest rate by quarter percent The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point for the second time this year. This brings the rate to a range between 3.75% and 4%. That's the lowest it's been in three years.  The Fed's announcement noted, “Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low. …Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated.” Museum of the Bible displaying oldest copies of Jonah and 1 Peter And finally, CBN News reports the Museum of the Bible is displaying the oldest-known complete copies of Jonah and 1 Peter.  The pages come from the Crosby–Schøyen Codex which dates back 1,800 years. The text is written in the ancient Coptic language.  It's the first time the pages from the codex have been available to the public since 1988.  Dr. Bobby Duke is the Chief Curatorial Officer at the Museum of the Bible. Listen to comments he made to CBN News.  DUKE: “This dates back to about 250 A.D. That's incredible to think that we have something that's 1,800 years old. A community said, ‘Let's put these items together so that if it were read it will inspire this generation of Christians that lived in that part of Egypt.” 1 Peter 1:24-25 says, “All flesh is as grass, and all the glory of man as the flower of the grass. The grass withers, and its flower falls away, but the word of the LORD endures forever.” Close And that's The Worldview on this Thursday, October 30th, in the year of our Lord 2025. Follow us on X or subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com. I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

Exhaustion signals TESLA - a rabbit out of a hat! Fed meeting in focus S&P earnings week - its a big one PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Don't fight the tape - Exhaustion signals everywhere - but plenty of money floating around it seems - Seeing lots of overheated signs..... - BUT, everything is fine. Nothing to worry about Markets - Fed Meeting today and tomorrow - Rate decision on Wednesday - Biggest week for earnings (S&P) - ATH - Let' GO! First time over 6,780 for the S&P 500 - Profit margins with those Tariffs - Surprise! - Emerging markets - On FIRE! Factoid - Ft Lauderdale Boat Show - The economic impact of the Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show (FLIBS) is significant, generating over $1.78 billion in economic output for Florida, supporting more than 100,000 jobs, and creating millions in sales and taxes. The Fort Lauderdale International Boat Show is considered to be the largest boat show in the world, with over 3 million square feet of exhibition space across multiple marinas. Godcaster is turning churches into local radio stations - Get the Godcaster app on Android and iOS - An Adam Curry Project Fed Meeting - Stock and All time highs - GOLD, SILVER rocking - Crypto doing just fine - GDP good - Employment good - Housing market improving - Limited information about economic activity due to Government is CLOSED - Inflation is well about Fed's own measures (3%) - FED IS GOING TO LOWER RATES REMEMBER - NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT - TRUST THE GOVERNMENT  CPI - The consumer price index showed a 0.3% increase on the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 3%, both lower than expected. - Excluding food and energy, core CPI showed a 0.2% monthly gain and an annual rate also at 3%, less than forecast. - The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the data specifically because the Social Security Administration uses it as a benchmark for cost-of living adjustments in benefit checks. Otherwise, the federal government has suspended all data compilation during the shutdown. Quick Meme Update - BYND - fell back to earth - down to $1.75 from $7 last week... - We should have shorted for the game like we talked about - It was supposed to be the next Apple! Qualcomm News! - They are in the game now - seems that Qualcomm now has the goods to compete with AMD and NVDA - Stock up 15% on this news (AMD and NVDA unfazed) - Qualcomm's data center chips are based on the AI parts in Qualcomm's smartphone chips called Hexagon neural processing units, or NPUs. - Nearly $6.7 trillion in capital expenditures will be spent on data centers through 2030, with the majority going to systems based around AI chips, according to a McKinsey estimate. (3% of of annual GDP for the ext 5 years) Why Not Intel? - The U.S. has formed a $1 billion partnership with Advanced Micro Devices  to construct two supercomputers that will tackle large scientific problems ranging from nuclear power to cancer treatments to national security, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and AMD CEO Lisa Su told Reuters. - The U.S. is building the two machines to ensure the country has enough supercomputers to run increasingly complex experiments that require harnessing enormous amounts of data-crunching capability. The machines can accelerate the process of making scientific discoveries in areas the U.S. is focused on. NVDA Spending Spree - Massive announcements today and $1billion stake in Nokia - Nokia announced on Tuesday that Nvidia is taking a $1 billion stake in the networking company, the latest partnership for the artificial intelligence chipmaker. - Shares of Nokia soared 26% higher following the news.

 Trump Demands Higher Defense Spending from New Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi. Lance Gatling reports on President Trump's visit to Tokyo and his meeting with the new Prime Minister, Takaichi. Trump is expected to demand increased defense spending. Takaichi plans to accelerate doubling the defense budget to 2% of GDP. A major concern is Trump asking Japan to stop buying energy from Russia, which supplies Japanese LNG. Takaichi enjoys surprisingly strong domestic support. 1958

SHOW 10-25-27 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT PAKISTAN FIRST HOUR 9-915 Afghan-Pakistan Peace Talks and the Imprisonment of Imran Khan. Husain Haqqani and Bill Roggio discuss Afghan-Pakistan peace talks, which are unlikely to achieve long-term peace as Pakistan feels "cocky." Trump's efforts are seen as ironic, given the issues stemming from the Doha agreement. Discussion turns to Imran Khan's imprisonment; the military fears his party's survival and aims to keep him from power. China's financial support for Pakistan is also noted as flagging. 915-930 Afghan-Pakistan Peace Talks and the Imprisonment of Imran Khan. Husain Haqqani and Bill Roggio discuss Afghan-Pakistan peace talks, which are unlikely to achieve long-term peace as Pakistan feels "cocky." Trump's efforts are seen as ironic, given the issues stemming from the Doha agreement. Discussion turns to Imran Khan's imprisonment; the military fears his party's survival and aims to keep him from power. China's financial support for Pakistan is also noted as flagging. 930-945 Israel Seeks Reliable Multinational Force to Prevent Hamas Resurgence in Gaza. David Daoud discusses Israel's primary concern regarding a multinational force in Gaza: ensuring its reliability to prevent Hamas's resurgence or rearmament. Hamas is reasserting control and slow-rolling the recovery of remaining hostages' bodies to establish the ceasefire. US drones monitor adherence to the ceasefire. Israel has ended the emergency status in the south, signaling a slow return to normal life. 945-1000 Iran Defies West on Nuclear Program Despite Loss of Key Scientists. Jonathan Schanzer discusses Iran's defiant nuclear program, noting the procurement of air defense systems from Russia and China is debatable. A major setback has been the loss of nuclear scientists due to targeted assassinations. Iran is heavily supporting the Houthis (now a full proxy), sending ballistic missile components and IRGC officials to help assemble them in Yemen. Snapback sanctions' impact on Iran's partnerships with Russia and China remains uncertain. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Hamas Slow-Rolls Hostage Returns to Avoid Disarmament, as Iran Remains Defiant. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses Hamas's slow-rolling of deceased hostage returns to avoid disarmament, a key condition of the peace talks. He notes Iran remains defiant, reconstituting its nuclear program at sites like Tehran 2 and using Georgia to evade sanctions. The discussion also covers the naming of a successor for PA President Abbas and highlights Javier Milei's landslide victory in Argentina as a stabilizing factor in South America. 1015-1030 Hamas Slow-Rolls Hostage Returns to Avoid Disarmament, as Iran Remains Defiant. Malcolm Hoenlein discusses Hamas's slow-rolling of deceased hostage returns to avoid disarmament, a key condition of the peace talks. He notes Iran remains defiant, reconstituting its nuclear program at sites like Tehran 2 and using Georgia to evade sanctions. The discussion also covers the naming of a successor for PA President Abbas and highlights Javier Milei's landslide victory in Argentina as a stabilizing factor in South America. 1030-1045 Russia Tests Nuclear Missile Amid Tough Winter and Increased US Sanctions. John Hardie analyzes Russia's reported successful test of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile. This test is likely aimed at pressuring the US into arms control talks, rather than impacting the Ukraine battlefield. On the ground, the situation in Pokrovsk has deteriorated due to Russian infiltration. The US has shifted from diplomacy to pressure, imposing sanctions on major Russian oil companies. 1045-1100 Anti-Hamas Clans and Militias Challenge Hamas's Control in Gaza. Ahmad Sharawi discusses the challenge to Hamas's power in Gaza by anti-Hamas clans and militias, some allegedly backed by Israel. Groups like the Dughmush clan and Yasser Abu Shabbab's Popular Forces contest Hamas's control and monopolization of aid. Hamas deters these rivals, labeling them "collaborators," as Gaza fragments into controlled pockets or "bantustans." THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney Poised to De-escalate Trade Dispute with Trump. Conrad Black analyzes the US-Canada trade dispute ignited by Ontario Premier Doug Ford's ad criticizing US tariffs. Black notes that while Ford was "cheeky," President Trump overreacted by suspending negotiations and mandating 10% tariffs. Prime Minister Mark Carney, seen as a diplomatic and well-informed figure, is expected to de-escalate the issue and work toward a reasonable agreement at the upcoming Asian conference. 1115-1130 AQAP Targets Anti-Houthi Forces Amidst Cooperation with Houthis and Iran. Bridget Toomey reports on AQAP's attack on anti-Houthi Yemeni soldiers. AQAP and the Houthis have an informal non-aggression agreement, sometimes cooperating on weapon smuggling. Iran supplies advanced arms to the Houthis and has maintained a relationship with al-Qaeda leadership for two decades. This cooperation, despite sectarian differences, aims to destabilize Yemen and the region. 1130-1145 Milei's Libertarian Win in Argentina Signals 'MAGA Tide' in Latin America. Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo analyze Javier Milei's decisive win in Argentina, viewing it as a model for Latin America and a victory for Donald Trump. The result signals a reduction of the "pink tide" and emergence of a "MAGA tide." Trump is leveraging trade talks to pressure Brazil's President Lula da Silva regarding Bolsonaro and alignment with China, reconfiguring power in the region. 1145-1200 Milei's Libertarian Win in Argentina Signals 'MAGA Tide' in Latin America. Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo analyze Javier Milei's decisive win in Argentina, viewing it as a model for Latin America and a victory for Donald Trump. The result signals a reduction of the "pink tide" and emergence of a "MAGA tide." Trump is leveraging trade talks to pressure Brazil's President Lula da Silva regarding Bolsonaro and alignment with China, reconfiguring power in the region. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215    US Pressure on Xi Jinping May Lead to Release of Jimmy Lai. Mark Simon is encouraged that President Trump plans to raise the fate of persecuted publisher Jimmy Lai with Xi Jinping. Simon believes China must resolve the "Jimmy Lai problem" but will likely demand concessions, such as sanctions relief. Lai's release, potentially via a humanitarian or commuted sentence route, would pave the way for the release of hundreds of other Hong Kong dissidents. 1215-1230 Trump's Tariff Policy Gains Victory in Trade Truce with China. Alan Tonelson assesses the US-China trade truce, viewing it as a major victory for President Trump's tariff policies. China agreed to delay rare earth export controls and buy US farm goods. This move is seen as desperate by Xi Jinping, whose economy is undermined by US technology curbs. China's predatory practices defined the relationship until Trump decided to use American leverage. 1230-1245 vUS Tariffs Drive Canada Toward Greater Economic Integration with China. Charles Burton discusses how US tariff aggression, fueled by Premier Doug Ford quoting Ronald Reagan to criticize US trade policy, is pushing Canada toward China. The uncertainty over Trump's response makes negotiating difficult, prompting speculation Canada may renew free trade talks with Beijing, remove investment restrictions, and possibly join the Belt and Road Initiative. 1245-100 AM Trump Demands Higher Defense Spending from New Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi. Lance Gatling reports on President Trump's visit to Tokyo and his meeting with the new Prime Minister, Takaichi. Trump is expected to demand increased defense spending. Takaichi plans to accelerate doubling the defense budget to 2% of GDP. A major concern is Trump asking Japan to stop buying energy from Russia, which supplies Japanese LNG. Takaichi enjoys surprisingly strong domestic support.

This week we talk about robots, call center workers, and convenience stores.We also discuss investors, chatbots, and job markets.Recommended Book: The Fourth Consort by Edward AshtonTranscriptThough LLM-based generative AI software, like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude, are becoming more and more powerful by the month, and offering newfangled functionality seemingly every day, it's still anything but certain these tools, and the chatbots they power, will take gobs of jobs from human beings.The tale that's being told by upper-management at a lot of companies makes it seem like this is inevitable, though there would seem to be market incentives for them to both talk and act like this is the case.Companies that make new, splashy investments in AI tech, or which make deals with big AI companies, purporting to further empower their offerings and to “rightsize” their staff as a consequence, tend to see small to moderate bumps in their stock price, and that's good for the execs and other management in those companies, many of whom own a lot of stock, or have performance incentives related to the price of their stock built into their larger pay package.But often, not always, but quite a lot of the time, the increased effectiveness and efficiencies claimed by these higher-ups after they go on a firing spree and introduce new AI tools, seem to be at least partly, and in some cases mostly attributable to basically just threatening their staff with being fired in a difficult labor market.When Google executives lay off 5 or 10% of their staff on a given team, for instance, and then gently urge those who survived the cull to come to the office more frequently rather than working from home, and tell them that 60 hours a week is the sweet spot for achieving their productivity goals, that will tend to lead to greater outputs—at least for a while. Same as any other industry where blood has been drawn and a threat is made if people don't live up to a casually stated standard presented by the person drawing that blood.Also worth mentioning here is that many of the people introducing these tools, both into their own companies and into the market as a whole, seem to think most jobs can be done by AI systems, but not theirs. Many executives have outright said that future businesses will have a small number of people managing a bunch of AI bots, and at least a few investors have said that they believe most jobs can be automated, but investing is too specialized and sophisticated, and will likely remain the domain of clever human beings like themselves.All of which gestures at what we're seeing in labor markets around the globe right now, where demands for new hires are becoming more intense and a whole lot of low-level jobs in particular are disappearing entirely—though in most cases this is not because of AI, or not just, but instead because of automation more broadly; something that AI is contributing to, but something that is also a lot bigger than AI.And that's what I'd like to talk about today. The rapid-speed deployment, in some industries and countries, at least, of automated systems, of robots, basically, and how this is likely to impact the already ailing labor markets in the places that are seeing the spearpoint of this deployment.—Chatbots are AI tools that are capable of taking input from users and responding with often quite human-sounding text, and increasingly, audio as well.These bots are the bane of some customers who are looking to speak to a human about some unique need or problem, but who are instead forced to run a gauntlet of AI-powered bots. The interaction often happens in the same little chat window through which they'll eventually, if they say the right magic words, reach a human being capable of actually helping them. And like so many of the AI innovations that have been broadly deployed at this point, this is a solution that's generally hated by customers, but lauded by the folks who run these companies, because it saves them a lot of money if they can hire fewer human beings to handle support tickets, even if those savings are the result of most people giving up before successfully navigating the AI maze and reaching a human customer support worker.In India right now, the thriving call center industry is seeing early signs of disruption from the same. IT training centers, in particular, are experimenting with using audio-capable AI chatbots instead of human employees, in part because demand is so high, but also, increasingly, because doing so is cheaper than hiring actual human beings to do the same work.One such company, LimeChat, recently said that it plans to cut its employee base by 80% in the near-future, and if that experiment is successful, this could ripple through India's $283 billion IT sector, which accounts for 7.5% of India's GDP. Hiring growth in this sector already collapsed in 2024 and 2025, and again, while this shift seems to be pretty good for the balance books of the companies doing less hiring and more firing as they deploy more AI systems, it's very not good for the often younger people who take these jobs, specializing in call center IT work, only to find that the market no longer demands their skill sets.Along the same lines, but in a perhaps more surprising industry, some convenience stores in Japan are deploying robots to manage their back rooms, where the products that end up available out front are unloaded, tallied, and shelved.These robots, which are basically just arms on poles, sometimes attached to wheeled bases, for moving around, sometimes not, are operated by AI, but are also continuously monitored by human employees in the Philippines. Each worker, who can be paid a lot less than an entry-level, young Japanese person would expect to be paid, monitors about 50 machines at a time, and steps in, using virtual reality gear to control the robots, if one of them gets stuck or drops something; which apparently happens about 4% of the time.This is akin to offshoring of the kind we've seen since the early 2000s, when the dawn of technological globalization made China the factory of the world and everything shifted from a model of local production and the stockpiling of components, to a last-minute, supply-chain oriented model that allowed companies to move all their manufacturing and some of their services to wherever it could be done the cheapest.Many people and companies benefitted from this arbitrage to some degree, though many regions have dried up as a result of this shift, because, for instance, former company towns where cars were produced no longer have the resources to keep infrastructure from degrading, and no longer have enough jobs to keep young people from moving away; brain drain can become pretty intense when there's no economic reason to stay.This reality is expected to become more widespread, even beyond former manufacturing hubs, because of the deployment of both AI systems, which can be subbed-in for many remote jobs, like call center work, programming, and the like, but also because of increasingly sophisticated and capable robots, which can do more automated work, which in turn allows them to be monitored, sometimes remotely, like those Japanese convenience store robots, for a fraction of the price of hiring a human being.This shift is expected to be especially harrowing for teens hoping to enter the labor market in entry-level jobs, as responsibilities like shelf-stocking and product scanning and the loading and unloading of materials are increasingly automatable, as robots capable of doing this work are developed and deployed, and perhaps even more importantly, as systems that augment that automatability are developed and deployed.In practice, that means coming up with shipping processes and other non-tangible systems that lean into the strengths of today's automated systems, while reducing the impact of their weaknesses.Amazon is in prime position to do exactly this, as they've already done so much to rewire global shipping channels so that they can deliver products as rapidly as possible, to as many places as possible. As a result, they control many of the variables within these channels, which in turn means they can tweak them further, so that they're optimized to work with Amazon's specialized automated systems, rather than just human ones.The company has stated, in internal documents, that it plans to automate 75% of its total operations, and it currently has nearly 1.2 million employees. That's triple what it employed in 2018, and it's expected that the automated systems it has already and will soon deploy will allow it to hire 160,000 fewer people than planned by 2027.Even though the company expects to sell twice as many products by 2033, then, it expects to hire 600,000 fewer people by that same year. And it's so confident in its ability to make this happen that it's already making plans to rebuild its image in the aftermath of what's expected to be a really difficult period of people hating it. It's planning significant branding efforts, meant to help it seem like a good corporate citizens, including sponsored community events and big donations to children's programs.It's also intending to frame this shift as an evolution in which robots are amplifying the efforts of human employees. Rather than calling their automated systems robots, they might call them ‘cobots,' for instance.Amazon has contended that the internal documents in which these plans were outlined, those documents acquired and reported upon by the New York Times, are incomplete and not an accurate representation of what Amazon plans, and they said those branding efforts are not a response to hate related to their automation efforts, they just like spending money on nice things for communities.The net-impact of existing efforts of this kind, though, is to deplete local job markets where these big companies dominate, and to make the jobs that survive a lot higher-end, requiring more technical sophistication, often, like being able to manage and maintain these sorts of robots, which are skills few people currently have.Amazon's backend is already very automated, powered by bots originally developed by robotics maker Kiva, which was purchased by the company for 3/4 of a billion dollars back in 2012. Amazon warehouse workers now work alongside all sorts of robots—though as seems to be the case with employees who survive AI-related firings, those humans who remain are often subjected to strenuous conditions and a lot of pressure to work long hours.In the company's Shreveport, Louisiana location, there are more than a thousand robots working around the clock, and that's allowed Amazon to hire 25% fewer human workers at that facility, while processing 10% more items. The plan is to further refine that model while also spreading it to other Amazon warehouse locations, 40 more of them by 2027, which is part of how they expect to reach that aforementioned 75% employee reduction goal.Amazon's obviously at the forefront of this shift because of the nature of their business and business model, but other big employers, such as Walmart, are also pushing in this direction. Walmart officials have said they will have cut costs by more than 30% at facilities where they've been experimenting with more automation by the end of 2025, and they've already cut those costs by 20% at these facilities, in part because fewer human employees are necessary.All of which is interesting in part because these are clearly real innovations that are leading to more efficiency and effectiveness at lower costs, and ultimately these may translate into cheaper goods and services for customers if the companies deploying automated technologies decide to pass on those savings.But simultaneously, this represents a fundamental shift in the job market and overall economy, and if new jobs don't arrive at the same scale and pace as they're disappearing, or some other money-distribution solution, like a minimum basic income, doesn't arrive in time, we could find ourselves in a situation, globally, but especially and most immediately in markets like China, which has far more automation than everyone else right now, and the US—we could have a situation where there's just a whole lot of stuff being made, but not enough people who can afford it, because they can't find jobs that will pay them enough to participate in the economy, which in turn could splashback on these automated measures in a negative way, as these companies' addressable markets shrink.Show Noteshttps://collectivefutures.blog/the-infrastructure-of-meaninglessness/https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/20/meta-approves-plan-for-bigger-executives-bonuses-following-5percent-layoffs.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/technology/google-sergey-brin-return-to-office.htmlhttps://www.reuters.com/world/india/meet-ai-chatbots-replacing-indias-call-center-workers-2025-10-15/https://restofworld.org/2025/philippines-offshoring-automation-tech-jobs/https://www.theverge.com/report/806728/tech-left-teens-fighting-over-scraps-robots-taking-jobshttps://www.theverge.com/transportation/805471/waymo-robotaxi-winter-snow-weather-testinghttps://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-wants-strong-influence-over-the-robot-army-hes-building/https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/walmart-automation-supply-chain-cost-savings/747377/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/23/business/china-tariffs-robots-automation.html This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit letsknowthings.substack.com/subscribe

Analyzing Japan's New Hawkish Prime Minister and the Defense Budget Goal Lance Gatling Lance Gatling analyzes Japan's new Prime Minister, Takayoshi Sado, the nation's first female leader, focusing on her hawkish stance and ambitious defense goals. Sado has committed to raising Japan's defense budget to five percent of GDP, a significant increase that reflects growing security concerns and regional tensions. However, Gatling notes that achieving this goal presents substantial challenges, as the current massive budget is already fully allocated. This would require either borrowing, reallocation, or difficult trade-offs between existing programs, and there remains serious doubt about whether the military can effectively absorb, train personnel for, and maintain such a dramatic increase.

On this episode of Animal Spirits: Talk Your Book, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ben Carlson⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by Gabby Santos, Chief Market Strategist for the Americas at JP Morgan to discuss the 30th annual edition of the firm's capital market assumptions report that covers stock returns, bond yields, inflation, GDP forecasts and more. Find complete show notes on our blogs... Ben Carlson's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠A Wealth of Common Sense⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Michael Batnick's ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Irrelevant Investor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Feel free to shoot us an email at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation. Check out the latest in financial blogger fashion at The Compound shop: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://idontshop.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. See our disclosures here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ The Compound Media, Incorporated, an affiliate of ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ritholtz Wealth Management⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices