Podcasts about gdp

Hello, all you and the Relentless Health Tribe trying to figure out how to do right by patients and the folks footing the bill. Welcome to it. This is episode 499, one episode before episode 500. So, come back next week for that one. For a full transcript of this episode, click here. If you enjoy this podcast, be sure to subscribe to the free weekly newsletter to be a member of the Relentless Tribe. All right, so today, let's talk about the inches that are all around us. Let's find some. Musculoskeletal spend, otherwise known as MSK spend, for any given plan sponsor adds up to the tune of something like 20% or 30% of total plan spending, depending on the member demographic. MSK rolls in at $16 PMPM, I just saw, according to a report Keith Passwater sent me a couple of weeks ago. It's the third most costly spend apparently overall. And it's easy to see why, right? On any given day, odds are good any given plan member is gonna do something that, in hindsight, was fairly obviously a bad idea and wind up getting hurt in some low-acuity way. For example, I remember that one time I twisted my ankle on a curb getting outta my car. Given the right space, enough time, and concentration, I can do the worst parking job you've ever seen in your life and manage to twist my ankle in the process. But I digress. Here's the point. MSK spend adds up really fast. Add to that something like 50% of spine surgeries are said to be unnecessary. The same thing goes true from injuries like twisted ankles, for example, that would have healed themselves without an ER visit, without any intervention aside from ice, rest, and elevate. Because it turns out that something like 80% of those twisted-ankle, banged-up-the-back types of MSK injuries are actually low acuity, and a huge percentage of those will heal by themselves. On that point, let me bring in some context here, some late-breaking news. I was reading Dana Prommel's newsletter. She wrote, and I'm reading this, she wrote, "The 2026 National Healthcare Expenditure data reports are out, and it is another sobering reflection of our current system. Personal healthcare spending has surged by over 8%, and our healthcare spend as a share of the GDP has followed that same aggressive trajectory." Then Dana writes, "The most troubling takeaway from the 2026 report is the lack of a 'health dividend.' Despite [this] 8% increase in spending, we aren't seeing a corresponding 8% increase in longevity, wellness, or chronic disease management. People aren't getting significantly healthier; they are just getting more 'care.' And that 'care' isn't always good care, or the right care, or care by the right type of clinician, at the right time, in the right setting." Is that not the perfect segue or what? Because this is what we're talking about on the show today in regard to, again, MSK care—care that can wind up costing millions of dollars across plan members, and it might be unnecessary because, again, the twisted ankle or the pain in the lower back would have healed itself without any care, without an ER visit. But if an ER visit was had, that patient probably is gonna wind up with a bunch of imaging. Probably is gonna wind up with a referral to a surgeon. And now there's a surgery scheduled, and the patient has been off work for however long all that took. There's a lot of direct and indirect costs that may or may not add up to any given health dividend or health span or whatever you wanna call it—better quality of life.   Why does all this happen? How does it happen? One reason is what Dr. Jay Kimmel calls the white space of MSK care. This is where a patient does a truly breathtaking job parking the car, twists her ankle, starts to swell up, and now a decision has to be made: Go to the ER. Go to urgent care. Go home. Or what if it's a parent making this choice for a kid? In the olden days, maybe that patient would've called up his or her longtime family doctor and asked what to do, and maybe if that longtime family doctor didn't know, he or she would have called up the local ortho and gotten their opinion. Or maybe the two were sitting together in the doctor's lounge at the time, or maybe they rounded together in the hospital and, and, and … There used to be lots of opportunities for spontaneous questions and answers and curbside consults. But not today most of the time, really, unless you're a patient with a doctor in the family. But even for a PCP, who wants an ortho consult? Amy Scanlan, MD, and I discussed this quite a bit in an earlier episode (EP402). There's no doctor lounges anymore. There's no coffee klatch down in radiology either. There's just a lot of cultural shifts, in other words. But all of this, everything I have said thus far, all adds up to one big takeaway: These excess costs that don't have commensurate improved clinical outcomes, they happen because patients are on their own to triage themselves. They look at their black-and-blue whatever, or they're standing there listening to their kid cry and they are deciding what to do. And the thing is, if they choose the ER—because, again, they don't have a doctor, anybody they can just call with the right kind of clinical background—once they head into that ER and sit there for six hours and demand an MRI because now it has to be worth their time because they sat there for six hours; but now there's a false positive and the ER docs are being conservative because of malpractice or whatever and they refer them to some sort of surgeon … Look, everybody's doing their best with the information that they have at the time, but you can see how easy it is for a person to avoidably wind up costing a lot of money for a musculoskeletal injury that would have healed by itself. So, yeah, let's talk about how we can get patients some help in that so-called white space. How can we get them, triage before the triage, as I managed to say more than once in the conversation that follows? Let's get them on a good trajectory to start. Today, my guest is Dr. Jay Kimmel. Dr. Kimmel is an orthopedic surgeon, and he's been in practice in Connecticut for over 35 years. He and Steve Schutzer, MD, co-founded Upswing Health. I talked with Dr. Steve Schutzer about Centers of Excellence in an earlier episode (EP294). Upswing Health provides members with the opportunity to talk with an athletic trainer within 15 minutes and an orthopedic specialist within 24 hours. So, instead of having a panic attack of indecision and ultimately winding up in the ER, getting coughed on in the waiting room, members have somebody helping them in this white space so they can get triaged before the triage. I need to thank Upswing Health. I am so appreciative they donated some financial support to cover the costs of this episode. This podcast is sponsored by Aventria Health Group with an assist from Upswing Health. Also mentioned in this episode are Upswing Health; Keith Passwater; Dana Prommel; Amy Scanlan, MD; Steve Schutzer, MD; Eric Bricker, MD; Al Lewis; Nikki King, DHA; Matt McQuide; Christine Hale, MD, MBA; and Chris Deacon. For a list of healthcare industry acronyms and terms that may be unfamiliar to you, click here.   You can learn more at upswinghealth.com and follow Dr. Kimmel on LinkedIn.   Jay Kimmel, MD, is the president and co-founder of Upswing Health, the country's first virtual orthopedic clinic. He founded Upswing with Steve Schutzer, MD, to rapidly assess, triage, and manage orthopedic conditions in a cost-effective, high-value manner, helping patients avoid unnecessary imaging, procedures, and delays in care. Dr. Kimmel had a long and distinguished career as a practicing orthopedic surgeon with Advanced Orthopedics New England. He earned his undergraduate degree from Cornell University and his medical degree from the University of Rochester. He completed his orthopedic residency at Columbia Presbyterian Medical Center, where he trained with leaders in shoulder surgery, followed by a sports medicine fellowship at Temple University Center for Sports Medicine, where he participated in the care of Division I collegiate athletes. He is board-certified in orthopedic surgery and is a Fellow of the American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons. Dr. Kimmel specializes in sports medicine with an emphasis on shoulder and knee injuries and holds a subspecialty certificate in orthopedic sports medicine from the American Board of Orthopedic Surgery. He is also a member of the American Orthopedic Society for Sports Medicine. Dr. Kimmel co-founded the Connecticut Sports Medicine Institute at Saint Francis Hospital, a multidisciplinary center dedicated to providing high-quality care for athletes at all levels, and served as its co-director for many years. He has a strong commitment to education and served for over 20 years as an assistant clinical professor in both family medicine and orthopedics at the University of Connecticut. He has also served as a team physician at the professional, collegiate, and high school levels.   07:49 EP472 with Eric Bricker, MD, on high-cost claimants. 08:01 What is the "white space" in MSK spend? 10:43 Statistics on Connecticut's spending on plan members with low-acuity MSK injuries. 13:30 How back pain also easily transitions from a low-acuity issue to a high-acuity problem. 15:11 How plan sponsors can detect their white space downstream spend. 16:58 EP464 with Al Lewis. 17:02 EP470 with Nikki King, DHA. 18:15 Why where patients start their journey often dictates where they wind up and how costly that medical pathway is. 20:48 Where PCPs fit into this MSK spend issue. 25:26 EP468 with Matt McQuide. 25:34 EP471 with Christine Hale, MD, MBA. 25:39 Why access is key.   You can learn more at upswinghealth.com and follow Dr. Kimmel on LinkedIn.   Jay Kimmel, MD, of @upswinghealth discusses #MSKspend on our #healthcarepodcast. #healthcare #podcast #financialhealth #patientoutcomes #primarycare #digitalhealth #healthcareleadership #healthcaretransformation #healthcareinnovation #musculoskeletal   Recent past interviews: Click a guest's name for their latest RHV episode! Mark Noel, Gary Campbell (Take Two: EP341), Zack Kanter, Mark Newman, Stacey Richter (INBW45), Stacey Richter (INBW44), Marilyn Bartlett (Encore! EP450), Dr Mick Connors  

Broadcasting from Dubai while speaking at the World Government Summit, John O’Bryant delivers one of the most important episodes of Money and Wealth yet — a deep, practical breakdown of how wealth is really built in America. In this episode, John explains why most millionaires aren’t made in flashy industries like tech, crypto, or Hollywood, but quietly — by understanding how cities actually work. Cities are economic machines, responsible for the vast majority of GDP, and they create guaranteed, recurring demand for essential services year after year. John pulls back the curtain on:• How city budgets, contracts, and procurement fuel long-term wealth• Why boring, essential businesses beat hype every time• How small and mid-sized cities create easier paths to ownership• The real “Millionaire Next Door” formula• Why consistency, reliability, and specialization win at scale From sanitation and infrastructure to cybersecurity, childcare, real estate, and compliance, this episode challenges listeners to stop chasing what’s hot and start owning what’s essential. John shares lessons from building and selling nine-figure companies, scaling businesses quietly, and turning local demand into generational wealth. If you want to build wealth that lasts, this episode is a blueprint: find what your city can’t live without, master it, and own it.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to another episode of Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different, featuring the legendary Ray Wang. In this memorable conversation, Christopher and Ray dive deep into the latest developments shaping the world of technology, business, and careers. From dissecting recent tech earnings from giants like Apple, Meta, Tesla and Microsoft to sharing insights from Davos and contemplating the implications of AI for the future of work and entrepreneurship. This episode delivers high-caliber analysis and practical takeaways for anyone navigating today’s rapidly evolving landscape. You're listening to Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different. We are the real dialogue podcast for people with a different mind. So get your mind in a different place, and hey ho, let's go. Lessons from Davos and the New Economic Realities Returning from a bustling Davos, Ray Wang shares his observations on how global leaders and executives are tackling an era defined by uncertainty, rapid technology adoption and a relentless pursuit of efficiency. One of Ray's core takeaways is the prevailing theme of “margin compression,” where even the world's largest corporations are working harder than ever just to achieve modest growth. Companies are now measured by their ability to scale exponentially, as illustrated by India's ISRO launching rockets at a fraction of NASA's cost, fundamentally altering competitive dynamics across industries. Ray explains that the rise of AI turbocharges this transformation by opening up “infinite possibilities.” Companies no longer just compete on physical or financial assets, but on their ability to harness vast data resources, quickly innovate and make sharp strategic choices about what problems to solve—and, crucially, what not to do. Privacy challenges, especially for companies like Apple, arise in this new era, making it difficult to deliver world-class AI solutions while maintaining rigorous data protection standards. Both Christopher and Ray emphasize that managing growth, inflation and investment are more complex than ever, with the U.S. outpacing much of the world in GDP growth, yet operating in a global environment rife with policy and market uncertainties. AI, Tech Earnings, and the Rise of the New IPO Era The conversation pivots to the massive investment and exuberance surrounding generative AI and tech infrastructure. Ray points out that while there are fears about overbuilding capacity or creating a circular funding loop among AI companies, there is still significant real opportunity. The current phase has seen enormous capital pour into building data centers and scalable AI platforms. Landmark IPOs from OpenAI, Databricks and others are expected to reshape the tech landscape. Despite market fluctuations and some outsized reactions to earnings, the fundamentals for big tech remain robust. Companies like Apple have solidified their status as luxury brands, even as others like Tesla and Meta retool and pivot to sustain long-term relevance and unlock new revenue streams such as robotics and energy. At the structural level, venture capital itself is in flux. Many VC firms have become indistinguishable from private equity, constrained both by too much and too little available capital relative to the demands of today's tech startups. The gap between small angel, family office, or solo GP funds and the mega funds has widened so much that the “middle” has all but disappeared. It is now entirely possible for one-person companies, through the leverage of AI and autonomous agents, to achieve scale and revenues previously thought impossible. Ray predicts it is likely we will see a single founder build a billion-dollar annual revenue company within the next five years, echoing the democratization and disruption that generative AI promises. Building Legendary Companies and Careers in the Age of AI Christopher and Ray close their discussion by exploring what all these rapid changes mean for leaders and individuals. For CEOs and entrepreneurs, the formula for thriving is clear but audacious. Leaders must design their companies to be fully autonomous and authentic, constantly reinventing their business as if they were attempting to disrupt themselves. Boards need to be stacked with people who grasp the new fundamentals: margin compression, exponential scale, and infinite possibilities brought by AI. Combining domain expertise with technical agility is more critical than ever, as the fusion of seasoned judgment and lightning-fast, innovative execution is where breakthroughs occur. On a personal level, Ray stresses that knowledge and execution are becoming commodities, rapidly automated by advances in AI. To stay relevant, individuals must become “macro analysts,” adept at synthesizing big ideas and patterns, deeply immersed in experimenting with new technologies and surrounded by others who are passionate about their own crafts. The traditional playbooks for career building, education, and even family strategies are being rewritten in real-time. The U.S. faces global competition for talent and innovation, and entrepreneurial energy is no longer confined to Silicon Valley or New York. The nature of immigration, investment and even educational choices must be reconsidered for new generations. In a world where the location and structure of opportunity are shifting, only those who embrace change, foster diverse collaborations and pursue purpose will continue to define the next era of legendary achievement. As both Christopher and Ray reflect, living and leading like Rob Burgess—embracing boldness, curiosity and authenticity—remains the path to being truly legendary in this rapidly changing world. To hear more from Ray Wang and his updates on the world of Tech and AI, download and listen to this episode. Bio R “Ray” Wang (pronounced WAHNG) is the Founder, Chairman, and Principal Analyst of Silicon Valley based Constellation Research Inc. He co-hosts DisrupTV, a weekly enterprise tech and leadership webcast that averages 50,000 views per episode and authors a business strategy and technology blog that has received millions of page views per month.  Wang also serves as a non-resident Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council's GeoTech Center. Since 2003, Ray has delivered thousands of live and virtual keynotes around the world that are inspiring and legendary. Wang has spoken at almost every major tech conference. His ground-breaking bestselling book on digital transformation, Disrupting Digital Business, was published by Harvard Business Review Press in 2015.  Ray's new book about Digital Giants and the future of business titled, Everybody Wants to Rule the World will be released July 2021 by Harper Collins Leadership. Wang is well quoted and frequently interviewed in media outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business News, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, Cheddar, CGTN America, Bloomberg, Tech Crunch, ZDNet, Forbes, and Fortune.  He is one of the top technology analysts in the world. Links Follow Ray Wang! Website | Twitter | LinkedIn | Constellation Research | DisrupTV We hope you enjoyed this episode of Christopher Lochhead: Follow Your Different™! Christopher loves hearing from his listeners. Feel free to email him, connect on Facebook, X (formerly Twitter), Instagram, and subscribe on Apple Podcast / Spotify!

WORST DAY EVER for SILVER Cold Snap in Florida – Massive Critter Drop New Fed Chair named Pausing on space PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - WORST DAY EVER for SILVER - Cold Snap in Florida - Massive Critter Drop - New Fed Chair named - Pausing on space Markets - Bitcoin plunges - Crypto "winter" - Deep dive into January economic results - USD rises from multi-month low - EM still powered ahead - ELON - PT Barnum move Cold Snap - On February 1, 2026, Florida faced a significant drop in temperatures, reaching a record low of 24°F (-4°C) in Orlando. This marked the lowest temperature recorded in February since 1923. - Iguanas dropping from tress all over the streets - Iguanas can survive temperatures down to the mid-40s Fahrenheit (around 7°C) by entering a "cold-stunned" state, where they appear dead but are just temporarily paralyzed and immobile; however, prolonged exposure to temperatures in the 30s and 40s, especially below freezing, can be lethal, particularly for smaller individuals, leading to tissue damage and organ failure. - They get sluggish below 50°F (10°C) and fall from trees as they lose grip. - The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) issued Executive Order 26-03 on Friday, allowing residents to collect and surrender cold-stunned green iguanas without a permit during an unprecedented cold weather event. Right on Schedule - Remember we talked about how the Nat Gas price was going to reverse, just as quickly as it spikeed? - Nat gas down 25% today - down about 28% from recent high - Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike. THIS! - Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said the company's proposed $100 billion investment in OpenAI  was “never a commitment” and that the company would consider any funding rounds “one at a time.” - “It was never a commitment,” Huang told reporters in Taipei on Sunday. “They invited us to invest up to $100 billion and of course, we were, we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time.” Then Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of equity and debt - needs to fund more datacenter build-out. - What happened to the OpenAI $300 Billion committment? - Or is the money that NVDA "committed to OpenAi, that they must have committed to Orcle, not a committment - GIGANTIC CIRCLE JERK Fungus - -Interesting - Did you know? Botrytis cinerea, a fungus causing grey mold, affects grapes by causing bunch rot, ruining fruit in high humidity. - While it often destroys crops, specific dry, warm conditions can transform it into "noble rot," concentrating sugars and creating high-value dessert wines (e.g., Sauternes, Tokaji) with honeyed, raisin-like, and apricot flavors. January Economic Review Employment — Job growth was nearly flat in December, with 50,000 new jobs added and earlier months revised lower. — Unemployment dipped slightly to 4.4%, but it's still higher than it was a year ago. — Long-term unemployment didn't change and remains high, and the labor force participation rate slipped to 62.4%. — Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in December and are up 3.8% over the past year. — Weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year's levels, showing a labor market that is cooling but not weakening sharply. FOMC / Interest Rates — The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. — Most policymakers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, though job gains are slowing and inflation remains above target. — Two committee members supported a small rate cut, but the majority preferred to wait. - Fed Chair Powell: Clearly, a weakening labor market calls for cutting. A stronger labor market says that rates are in a good place. It isn't anyone's base case right now that the next move will be a rate hike. - The economy has once again surprised us with its strength. Consumer spending numbers overall are good, and it looks like growth overall is on a solid footing. - Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, but hard to say they are fully in balance. We think our policy is in a good place. - Overall, it's a stronger forecast since the Fed's last meeting. Haven't made any decisions about future meetings, but the economy is growing at a solid pace, the unemployment rate is broadly stable and inflation remains somewhat elevated, so we will be looking to our goal variables and letting the data light the way for us. - Most of the overrun in goods prices is from tariffs. We think tariffs are likely to move through, and be a one-time price increase. - Dissent: Miran and Waller (Miran is a admin shill and Waller wanted job as Fed Chair) GDP & Federal Budget — Economic growth remained strong in Q3 2025, with GDP rising at an annualized 4.4% driven by strong spending, higher exports, and reduced imports due to tariffs. — Investment was mixed, with business spending increasing while housing activity declined. — The federal deficit for December rose to $145 billion, though the fiscal year-to-date deficit is slightly smaller than last year. Inflation & Consumer Spending — Personal income and consumer spending rose moderately in October and November. — Inflation, measured by the PCE index, increased 0.2% in both months and roughly 2.7% year-over-year. — The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in December, with shelter, food, and energy all contributing. — Producer prices also increased, though 2025 producer inflation slowed compared to 2024. Housing — Existing home sales rose in December, but the number of homes for sale is still low. — Prices dipped a bit from November but remain higher than they were a year ago. — New-home sales in October were steady compared with the prior month but much higher than last year. — New-home prices fell compared to 2024, though they are still high relative to long-term norms. Manufacturing — Industrial production rose 0.4% in December and was up 2.0% for the year. — Manufacturing output increased, while mining activity declined and utility output jumped. — Durable goods orders grew sharply in November, driven by a big increase in transportation equipment, pointing to strong demand in key industries. Imports & Exports — Import and export prices rose slightly through November 2025. — The goods trade deficit widened in November because exports fell while imports increased. — For the year so far, both exports and imports are running above 2024 levels, though the overall trade deficit remains larger. Consumer Confidence — Consumer confidence fell sharply in January after improving in December. — Both views of current conditions and expectations for the future weakened, with expectations dropping well below the level that often signals recession risk. Earnings — Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings, and overall results are strong. — 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, though this is slightly below long-term averages. Revenue beats remain solid at 65%. — Companies are reporting earnings 9.1% above estimates, which is well above the 5-and 10-year surprise averages. — The S&P 500 is on track for 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the 5th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth. — Eight of eleven sectors are showing positive year-over-year earnings growth, led by Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services. — The Health Care sector shows the largest earnings declines among lagging categories. — The forward 12-month P/E ratio sits at ~22.2, elevated relative to 5-and 10-year averages, signaling continued optimism despite tariff and cost concerns. — FactSet also notes the S&P 500 is reporting a record-high net profit margin of 13.2%, the highest since 2009. INTERACTIVE BROKERS Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/   S3XY No More - Tesla is ending production of the Model S sedan and Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on autonomous technology and humanoid robots (Optimus). - Do we have any idea with the TAM for either of these are? - Huge assumptions that Robotaxi will be a bug part of the global transportation. But, what if it isn't? - Unproven being built, taking out the proven - investors were not too happy about this...Stock was down after earnings showed continued sluggish EV sales and BIG Capex for Robotaxi refit, robots and chip manufacturing. But... - Friday - not to allow TESLA stock to move down tooo much. - With SpaceEx looking for an IPO in June - valuations have moved from $800B to 1.5T supposedly. - Now there is discussion of merging in xAI and possibly Tesla - Tesla shares dropped after earnings FED CHAIR PICK - Drumroll: Kevin Warsh - Seems like a good pick from the aspect of experience and ability - Deficit reducer? - More hawkish than market expected? - Announce Friday after several leaks in the morning And then... - Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980. -It was down 35% during the day - the worst daily plunge ever on record. - It was the worst decline since the March 1980 Hunt Brothers crash. - The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh's nomination. - However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits.- USD Spiked higher - Gold was down 10% - GOLD saw a drop of 10% to the close - 12% intraday - this was also a record - Bitcoin is down 25% from its recent level 2 weeks ago - ALL BEING BLAMED ON THE FED CHAIR PICK -- QUESTION - Will Trump back-peddle this OR talk to supporters in congress or tell them not to confirm him if markets continue to act squirrely? Fed Statement and Rates - Fed out with statement - no change on rates - Changes: Inflation up, employment steady, economy strong - Does not bode for much in the way of cuts - probably on hold though end of Powell term Apple Earnings - Apple reported blowout first-quarter earnings on Thursday, and predicted growth of as much as 16% in the current quarter, matching the period that just ended. - Sales could be even better, Apple said, if the company just secure enough chips to meet its customers' iPhone demands. - The company reported $42.1 billion in net income, or $2.84 per share, versus $36.33 billion, or $2.40 per share, in the year-ago period. - Apple saw particularly strong results in China, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. Sales in the region surged 38% during the quarter to $25.53 billion. - “The constraints that we have are driven by the availability of the advanced nodes that our SoCs are produced on, and at this time, we're seeing less flexibility in supply chain than normal,” Apple CEO Tim Cook said. - Stock up slightly - no great moves.... Blue Origin - Blue Origin will pause tourist flights to space for “no less than two years” to prioritize development of its moon lander and other lunar technologies. - The decision reflects Blue Origin's commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence. - The pause in tourist flights grounds the company's reusable New Shepard rocket, which has sent more than 90 people to the edge of space and back to experience brief periods of weightlessness. - Datacenters on the Moon? (sounds like a Pink Floyd album)     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

We've all come to accept the US is now a K-shaped economy.The rich are at the top, living large off of their asset appreciation.And everyone else - the vast majority -- is in the bottom leg. Feeling increasingly left behind.But the rich have been spending so amply that they've kept the averages for retail spending -- which drives the majority of our GDP -- in "healthy" territory.But what will happen if the rich start to stumble?Analyst Danielle DiMartino Booth thinks we are seeing signs they're starting to. And she's concerned they could pull down the economy along with them.To find out why, and what the repercussion will be, watch this video.WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #deflation #economy _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2026 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

CleanSpark's Rory Murray joins us to explain the macro forces driving bitcoin's price and how the options market may be suppressing bitcoin. Subscribe to the Blockspace newsletter! Welcome back to The Blockspace Podcast! Today, CleanSpark's VP of Digital Asset Management Rory Murray joins us to talk about the latest macro shocks hitting the market and how they are driving bitcoin's price. Rory breaks down how the options market may have been weighing on bitcoin's price in Q4, and how the options market has changed bitcoin's market. We also dive into the six sigma move in Japanese rates, the unraveling of the yen carry trade, and how geopolitical tensions over Greenland are affecting global liquidity. Rory explains why bitcoin is being buffeted by noise while gold and silver take the lead in the debasement trade, plus the intersection of AI energy demand and Bitcoin mining as we head into 2026. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com Notes: * Japan 40-year bond yields topped 4% first time. * Japan has world's highest debt-to-GDP ratios. * Korean equity index rose 70% last year. * Yen carry trade has driven trillions in flow. * Gold crossed USD as top central bank reserve. Timestamps: 00:00 Start 03:20 Bitcoin & macro 06:45 Japan 17:08 Carry trade & liquidity drying up 18:08 Debasement trade 18:47 Hypercycle 22:50 Silver rally 23:18 Energy is the value creator 26:59 Options suppressing Bitcoin price? 41:10 Dampening volatility 42:35 Next 90 days 46:07 Cleanspark's BTC stack 48:14 Easier or harder to manage stack

This week we talk about the European Union, India, and tariffs.We also discuss trade barriers, free trade, and dumping.Recommended Book: The Kill Chain by Christian BroseTranscriptA free trade agreement, sometimes called a free trade treaty, is a law that reduces the cost and regulatory burden of trading between two or more states.There are many theories as to the ideal way to do international trade, with some economists and politicians positing that complete free and open trade is the way to go, because it allows goods and services to cross borders completely unencumbered, which in turn allows businesses in different countries to really lean into whatever they're good at, selling their cars to countries that are less good at making cars, while that recipient country produces soy beans or computer chips or whatever they're good at making, and sending those in the other direction, likewise unburdened by stiff tariffs or regulatory hurdles. Each country can thus produce the best product cheapest and sell it to the market where their products are in high-demand, while they, in turn, benefit from the same when it comes to other products and services.This theory leans on the idea that everyone is better off when everyone does what they're best at, rather than trying to do everything—specialization. But those who oppose this conception of international trade argue that this creates and reinforces asymmetries between different nations and businesses: a country that's really good at producing soybeans may be at a substantial disadvantage if the country that makes cars ever decides to go to war, because they won't have the existing infrastructure to build tanks or drones or whatever else, while the country that specializes in computer chips might hold all the cards when it comes to generating economic pressure against its enemies or would-be enemies, because such chips are in everything these days, from military hardware to kitchen appliances.This also creates potential frailties for countries that specialize in, say, buggy whips, only to have a new technology like the automobile come around and put a significant chunk of their total economy out of business.This theory may also leave local businesses that don't lean into a regional strength kind of in the lurch. If a country with a decent-sized automobile industry decides leaves their borders completely open to international competition, there's a chance that could light a fire under those local producers, forcing them to become more competitive, but there's also a chance it could collapse the market for local offerings—their cars might no longer be desirable, because the international stuff flooding across the borders from a nation that has heavily prioritized making cars are just so much better and cheaper, whether naturally or artificially, because of subsidies by that foreign government meant to help them take out international competition.This is why most nations have all sorts of tariffs, regulations, and other trade barriers erected between them and their trading partners, and why those trade barriers are ultra-specific, different for every single possible trade partner. The goal is to make international options less appealing by making them more expensive, or making it trickier for foreign competition to smoothly and quickly get their products on your shelves, while still making those things available in a volume that aligns with local consumer demands. And then ideally making it easier and cheaper for your stuff to get on their shelves.The negotiation of all this is massively complicated because Country A might want to favor their soybean farmers, who are an important voting bloc, and Country B might want to do the same for their car industry, because tax income from that industry is vital, and these two governments will thus do what they can to ensure their favored local industries and businesses have the biggest leg-up possible in as many foreign markets as possible, without giving away so much to their trade partners that they create worse situations for other industries and businesses (and the people who run them) on the home-front, as a consequence.What I'd like to talk about today is a recent, massive and potentially quite vital trade deal that was struck in early 2026, and what it might mean for global trade.—At the tail-end of January 2026, the European Commission announced that they had struck what they called “the mother of all deals” with India, this deal the culmination of two decades worth of negotiation, its tenets impacting about 2 billion people and around a quarter of the world's total GDP.The agreement, as is the case with most such agreements, is fairly complex. But in essence it reduces or eliminates tariffs on 96.6% of all EU goods exported to India, which means about 4 billion euros of annual duties that would have otherwise been paid on European products in India will disappear—a savings for Indian consumers, and a boon for European producers whose products will now be cheaper in India.This is expected to be especially beneficial for European automakers like Volkswagen, Renault, and BMW, which have long been weighed down by a 110% tariff in India; that tariff will be reduced to as little as 10% on the first 250,000 vehicles sold, following this agreement. Lower priced vehicles will still face higher tariffs, to help protect India's local carmakers, but electric vehicles will benefit from a five-year grace period, as India has been focusing on allowing as many cheap, renewable energy assets and infrastructure into the country as possible, regardless of where they come from.Tariffs on machinery, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals coming from the EU will be almost entirely eliminated, down from tariff rates of 44, 22, and 11%, respectively. Wine, which has long been tariffed at a rate of 150%, will be cut to between 20-30% for many varieties, and spirits from the EU coming into India will see 150% tariffs cut to 40%.On the other side of this deal, the EU will also open its market to Indian goods, reducing tariffs on about 99.5% of all such goods, including seafood, textiles, gems and jewelry, leather goods, plastic products, and toys. Several of these categories, like Indian seafood, textile-making, and other labor-intensive industries, have had a rough time of late, because of high US tariffs enforced by President Trump's second administration, so this is being seen as a significant win for them in particular.Interestingly, while the reduction in trade barriers is substantial here, and the number of people and industries, and amount of money that's involved is massive, this deal doesn't include, and in some cases explicitly excludes, any agreements related to labor rights, climate commitment, or environmental standards.This means that while the European Union has thus far been pretty strict in terms of ensuring incoming products align with their policies and values regarding things like carbon emissions and ensuring goods aren't produced by people laboring in slave-like conditions, this deal falls short of such enforcements, allowing India to operate with relative impunity, with regards to those issues, at least, and still sell with dramatically reduced barriers, on the European market. That's a big deal, and is perhaps the biggest indicator of just how badly the EU wanted to make this deal work.The EU was also able to keep significant protections in place for important local sectors like beef and chicken, dairy, rice, and sugar—all industries in which India would have liked to compete in the EU, but which, because of those maintained barriers, they practically can't. That would likely have been a feverishly negotiated topic, and it's likely an indicator of how much India wanted this to work, too.On that note, both India and the EU were apparently especially interested in making this multi-decade deal work, now, because of increasing pressure from China on one side and the US on the other.China has been rerouting many of its cheap products that would have previously gone to the US market, elsewhere, engaging in what's often called ‘dumping' which slowly but surely puts businesses that produce comparable products at a profit in those local target markets out of business, at which point these Chinese companies can then ratchet up their prices and profits, operating without real competition.The EU and India have both been targeted by Chinese companies taking this approach, because they're still producing at a feverish pace and because of US tariffs and the general unpredictability and irregularity of US policy overall under the second Trump administration, they've been firing that cheap product cannon more intensely at other large markets, instead—and India and the EU are the next two big markets in line right now, after the US and China.On the US side of things, those same tariffs have been hurting companies in both the EU and India that would otherwise been shipping their goods to the rich and spendy US market, and in many cases these tariffs have been fine-tuned to hurt important local industries as much as possible, because that's one of Trump's main negotiating tactics: lead with pain and then negotiate to take some of the pain away.This deal, then, serves multiple purposes in that it creates a valuable, newly polished trade relationship between a rich and powerful existing bloc and the newly most-populous country on the planet, which is also rapidly expanding economically and geopolitically.One last point to note, here, though, is that the European Union has been trying to create these sorts of mutually beneficial deals with non-US partners for a while, now, and the two most recent wins, trade deals with a South American trade bloc and with Indonesia, in early January 2026 and in September of 2025, respectively, have borne mixed results.The deal with Indonesia seems to be moving forward apace, and while it's a heck of a lot smaller than the India deal, only worth about 27 billion euros, that's still important, as Indonesia is increasingly important, both economically and geopolitically, especially in a Southeast Asia that's slowly reinforcing itself against China's economically and potentially militarily expansionist tendencies.The deal with that South American bloc, however, was referred to the EU Court of Justice in mid-January for legal review due to its lack of alignment with other EU treaties, and that could delay or prevent its ratification.This new mother of all deals with India could likewise face holdups, or could fizzle before being implemented—though most analysts who are keeping eyes on this are seeing it not just as an economic agreement, but a gesture of solidarity at a moment in which China and the US are signaling their intent to carve up the world into hemispheric hegemonies, when those who might otherwise be forced into subordinate positions are scrambling to figure out who they can team up with and create counter-balancing forces capable of standing up against current and future aggression and coercion.There's a chance that even if politics and propriety threaten to get in the way, then, India and the EU will figure out a way to work together, on this and potentially other matters of global import, as well.Show Noteshttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/27/eu-and-india-sign-free-trade-agreementhttps://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-india-trade-deal-leaves-blocs-carbon-border-tariff-intact-2026-01-27/https://archive.is/20260127162349/https://www.ft.com/content/b03b1344-7e92-4d0d-b85e-5ed92fc8f550https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_trade_agreementhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trade_barrierhttps://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_26_184https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/ip_26_184/IP_26_184_EN.pdfhttps://www.ndtv.com/world-news/how-indias-mother-of-all-deals-with-eu-wipes-out-pakistans-trade-advantage-10921011https://theconversation.com/what-the-mother-of-all-deals-between-india-and-the-eu-means-for-global-trade-274515https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/economic-impact-us-tariff-hikes-significance-trade-diversion-effectshttps://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20260116IPR32450/eu-mercosur-meps-demand-a-legal-opinion-on-its-conformity-with-the-eu-treatieshttps://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/1/27/mother-of-all-deals-how-india-eu-trade-deal-creates-27-trillion-markethttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/27/trump-reaction-eu-india-trade-deal-fta.htmlhttps://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/the-mother-of-all-trade-deals-in-the-time-of-trump/https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/with-mother-of-all-deals-in-bag-minister-piyush-goyal-says-mother-will-be-compassionate-fair-to-all-28-children/articleshow/127821015.cmshttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93European_Union_Free_Trade_Agreementhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93European_Union_relations 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This week's episode of Wealth Formula features an interview with Claudia Sahm, and I want to share a quick takeaway before you listen — because she's often misunderstood in the headlines. First, a quick explanation of the Sahm Rule, in plain English. The rule looks at unemployment and asks a very simple question:Has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? Specifically, if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more above its lowest level over the past year, the Sahm Rule is triggered. Historically, that has happened early in every U.S. recession since World War II. That's why it gets cited so much. And to be clear — it's cited a lot. The Sahm Rule is tracked by the Federal Reserve, Treasury economists, Wall Street banks, macro funds, and economic research shops globally. When it triggers, it shows up everywhere. That's not by accident. Claudia built one of the cleanest early-warning indicators we have. But here's the part that often gets lost. The Sahm Rule is not a market-timing tool and it's not a prediction machine. Claudia emphasized this repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal — a way to say, “Hey, if unemployment is rising this fast, waiting too long to respond makes things worse.” In other words, it's a call to action for policymakers, not a command for investors to panic. What makes this cycle unusual — and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful — is what's actually driving the data. We're not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. What we're seeing instead is very weak hiring. Companies aren't firing people — they're just not expanding. That distinction matters. And this is where I think the big picture comes in — not just for understanding the economy, but for investing in general. When you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that needs interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. And it includes the reality that if the current Fed leadership won't ease fast enough, future leadership will. History tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need — even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments, and even if it takes a shift toward a more dovish Federal Reserve. That doesn't mean reckless money printing tomorrow. But it does mean that structurally high rates are unlikely to be permanent. And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month's headline and more about what's positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. That's why I continue to focus on real assets that are already deeply discounted — things like multifamily real estate — assets that were repriced brutally during the rate shock, but still sit at the center of a growing, rent-dependent economy. This conversation with Claudia reinforced something I've been talking about for a long time:The biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I've made this mistake myself. If you want a thoughtful, non-sensational, data-driven discussion about where we actually are in this cycle — and what the indicators really mean — I think you'll get a lot out of this episode. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Well Formula Podcast coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you, uh, listen, we’re back in, uh, back in the saddle in here in, uh, 2026. I know it’s takes some time to get used to it, but we’re, gosh, we’re at the end of the month actually by the time this plays. I think we’re in February. It’s time again to start thinking about investing. And so if you are interested in potentially using this year, which I believe and which many believe to potentially be the last year, uh, big discounts, uh, in real estate and, uh, various other types of offerings. Make sure. To sign up for the Accredit Investor group, our investor club, as we call it wealthformula.com. You do need to be an accredit investor and then you get onboarded. An accredit investor is just defined by who you are. If you make over $300,000 per year filing jointly, or 200 by yourself, every reasonable expectation to do so in the future. Or you have a net worth of a million dollars outta your personal, outside of your personal residence, you’re an accredit investor. Congratulations. Join the club wealthformula.com. Interesting podcast. Today we have, uh, Claudia Sahm She’s a Big Deal, Claudia Sahm. You may recognize that last name som, for this som rule. And what is a som rule in plain English. You actually have heard of the som rule multiple times from other economists who’ve been on the show. The som rule looks at unemployment. And asks a very simple question. Now, has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? So specifically, if the three month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% or more above its lowest level, over the past year, this som rule is triggered. Now, historically, that has happened early in every US recession since the World War ii. That’s why it gets cited so much. It gets cited a lot. By the way, the sum rule is tracked by the Fed treasury economists, wall Street Banks, macro funds, economic research shops globally, and when it triggers, it shows up everywhere, and that’s not by accident. Uh, Claudia has built one of the cleanest early warning indicators we have, but here’s the part that often gets lost. The som rule is not a market timing tool, and it’s not a prediction machine. Claudia, uh, emphasized that repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal, a way to say, Hey, if unemployment’s rising this fast, wait, waiting too long to respond makes things worse. In other words, it’s call to action for policy makers, not a command for investors to panic per se. So what makes this cycle unusual and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful? Well, it’s what’s actually driving the data. We’re not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. Um, what we’re seeing instead is very weak. Hiring companies aren’t firing people, they’re just not expanding, and that distinction matters. This is where the big picture comes in, not just for understanding the economy. For investing in general and when you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that need interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. I’ve mentioned this before and it includes the reality that have to fed, fed, uh, if the current Fed leadership won’t ease fast enough. I am likely the case that future leadership appointed by. Donald Trump himself, uh, will, so history tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need, even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments. And even if it takes a shift towards a more dovish federal reserve. Uh, that doesn’t mean, uh, reckless money printing tomorrow, but it does mean that structurally. High interest rates are unlikely to be permanent. Okay? And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month’s headline and more about what’s positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. Okay? That’s really, really important, and that’s why I continue to focus on things like real estate, right? Real estate is currently. Not for long, in my opinion, but deeply discounted things like multifamily real estate, um, that were repriced brutally during the rate shot, uh, but are still at the center of a growing and, and rent dependent economy. And again, uh, this conversation with Claudia reinforced something that I’ve been talking about a long time, which is the biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I’ve made that mistake myself. I am not immune. I have made lots of mistakes, and that’s one of them. So this is a great conversation. Hopefully you’ll enjoy it, especially if you want a thoughtful, nons sensational data-driven discussion. Where we are actually at in this cycle and what these indicators really mean. I think you’ll get a lot of this episode and we will have this conversation for you right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net. The strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps. Paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show, everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula podcast is Dr. Claudia Sahm. Uh, she’s an American, uh, macroeconomic expert, uh, known for her work, uh, on monetary and fiscal policy and real-time economic indicators. She developed this som rule, which I think, uh, people have mentioned on this show before, so this is a great opportunity to talk to her about that. Uh, it’s a widely, uh, followed recession signal based on unemployment. She’s also a former Federal Reserve economist and senior policy advisor in government. Um, so welcome, uh, Dr. Sahm. Great. Happy to be here. Thank you. Well, let’s, let’s kind of start out with this som rule because, uh, you know, it’s funny, we, we have had a few different people, uh, at various times bring up the SOM rule, and I think one had actually said that it was triggered, but I don’t don’t think it was at any rate, let’s, let’s start with that. What is the som rule? Lemme start with why is there a som rule, and then we’ll then we’ll get to specifically what the, what the rule is itself. So when I started out on the project, it wasn’t so much about. Calling a recession, like there are some really fancy technical ways that economists like look at the tea leaves and the data and either try to forecast a recession, which is incredibly hard, or even just say we’re in a recession in real time. So like that’s a useful endeavor. But what actually was behind the development of my recession indicator was more of a call to action. How do we develop policies that, that the Congress can put into place very quickly if a recession comes? So these kind of what are referred to as automatic stabilizers, so they’re decided upon ahead of time, but then you do need a trigger that says a recession is here. So now that enhance the unemployment benefits, send out the stimulus checks, whatever it is that we kind of have as our typical tools that are used in recessions, we could have those ready to go as kind of guardrails. Then like you, you turn the policy on. So that was really my emphasis was on how do we do better policy and recessions, get the support out quickly. ’cause that’s the best chance of kind of stabilizing the situation. And then it’s like, well it was in a, it was in a policy volume that they asked for, like a really concrete proposal. So if I’m gonna say an automatic stabilizer, I need to have a proposal for what a trigger could be. So that’s really where the som rule came. So I think it is important. It’s definitely important to me to, I always remember like what the kind of reason for it’s sure. Now that also guided what the indicator itself looks like. So again, it was gonna be in, in fiscal policy. It needs to be simple, it needs to be something that we track it and it needs to, I felt it was important that it capture the reason that we. Fight recessions, why there’s such a bad, uh, you know, outcome. And so it looks at the, the unemployment rate. I use the national unemployment rate, take a three month average. ’cause we wanna smooth out, like there’s bumps and wiggles in the data from month to month. So you kind of, you know, three month average. One way to smooth it out. So you take that series of three month averages, you look at the current value, you compare to the lowest value over the prior 12 months, if you’ve seen an increase of a half, a percentage point or more. Which is really pretty modest, but half a percentage point or more. Historically, we have been in the early months of a recession, so it’s not a forecast. It’s supposed to be like we’re in it. Let’s go. It’s an empirical pattern. It’s one that’s worked in the United States. It reflects kind of our labor market institutions, the way unemployment rate moves and recessions. It historically is the case that once you get past a certain threshold of increased unemployment rate, it tends to build on itself. And in a typical recession, we see increases of. Two, three or more percentage points in the unemployment rate. Uh, so that’s, that’s what the summer rule is. And in fact, it did trigger in the summer of 2024. At that time I had said like, look around, we are not in a recession. GP is still expanding. Job creation is still happening. We don’t see the other hallmarks of a recession. And pointed to the fact that we’d had a very disrupted labor market after the pandemic in particular. You know, there had been a lot of immigration at that point. The unemployment rate is the total number of unemployed. So people who don’t have a job but are actively looking for one out of the labor force, right? And so these people that have to either be employed or looking for jobs, and so we actually saw from the pandemic. Both with the pandemic and then later with the surge and now the reversal in immigration. We’ve seen a lot of movement in the, in the labor force, which makes unemployment rate a little tricky to interpret. And then I’d also argue, we saw early in the pandemic, the unemployment rate dropped very rapidly. We even had labor shortages. So in some ways unemployment rate rising and it has risen over. I mean, it continued to rise last year in 2025. A lot of that’s also normalization. We’d had a very low unemployment rate. So I think the, the pandemic recession has a lot of features that were very unusual. We’ll talk probably more about the labor market continued to be kind of unusual. So the, you know, the somal was not the only recession indicator to fall flat on its face in the cycle. Um, but I think it’s still a useful, useful guide and I, and. You know, even if it’s not a recession, the, the unemployment rate is a full percentage point above, its low in 2023. So, I mean, that, that could, that could be a reason for policymakers to respond, even if it’s not responding to a recession. Right. That was the first time that it, that triggered and, and actually didn’t. End up in a recession, right? There’s some back in the 1950s, earlier, but it’s, it’s the first time where there’ve been some false positives in the past or, or near false positives. Like in 2003. It was kind of close, uh, is like the unemployment rate rises a little bit and then it falls back down. What we saw after it triggered in 2024 is it stabilized. Then last year it continued to rise. So this the pattern that we’ve seen since the pandemic of rapid recovery dropping unemployment rate and then it’s like gradually rising and yet has risen a full percentage point that you go all the way back in the post World War II period. We don’t see anything that looks like that. So that is a very unusual. Paris. So something’s more is going on in the labor market than just our typical business cycle, boom, bust, recession type dynamics. So what is that? What is the thing that’s happening that’s unusual right now in the labor market? Right? So the thing that is driving the unemployment rate up, I think this is a good lesson, a reminder to all of us. It’s not about layoffs. The rate of layoffs in the United States is really quite low. You look at unemployment insurance claims, they’re also quite low. What’s been pushing the unemployment rate up over the last two and a half years has been a very low rate of hiring and, and it’s, and it is something that over time will at least gradually put upward pressure on the unemployment rate and frankly. Until hiring picks up and we really don’t have many signs of it. Even as we enter 2026 unemployment rate’s gonna probably keep drifting up ’cause we’re not keeping job creation’s, not keeping up with, you know, people coming into the, into the labor market and, and that what’s, I think the puzzle right now is that hiring has been very low. But what we’ve seen in terms of consumer spending, business investment, so the kind of the big pieces of GDP, they’ve really held up pretty well, so. Business. It’s not, again, not that recession of the customers have disappeared. And so we’re not hiring, or we may even be firing workers. The customers are there for the businesses, but they’re choosing in this environment not to add, uh, to their payrolls. And that’s slowly pushing up down point rate. Yeah. Um, you know, it, it’s interesting what you’re, you’re talking about, but essentially you’re, people aren’t getting fired. They’re just, when they retire or leave, they’re just not replacing those. Individuals, you know, makes me think a little bit about what’s going on in the big, you know, in the tech push with artificial intelligence and that kind of thing, and increased in efficiency. Certainly you see that in the larger companies like Amazon and all that, where they’re just becoming massively more productive and cutting expenses essentially by, you know, using tech. Do you think that this is sort of an early indication, potentially of that kind of movement? So it. It’s possible, but I think we’re at the very front end of AI disrupting the labor market. This low hiring rate that we’ve talked about. You see this across all kinds of industries, including ones that don’t show high levels of AI adoption, and frankly, a AI adoption is pretty low. I mean, there are some sectors like tech and increasingly finance and some professional services have higher adoption rates. Uh, but in terms of it being able to explain the low hiring. I think it’s pretty tough ’cause the low hiring is such a, such a broad based, um, phenomenon. Now, AI might be, I think, indirectly contributing in that one of, one of the hypotheses about why, um, businesses have been, uh, not hiring despite, you know, economic activity. Continuing to push ahead could be that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Now there is a long list that we could draw of, of factors that might be causing businesses to be uncertain and hesitant to add to their payrolls. Uh, a lot of times you talk about things with tariffs or, you know, economic policy, regulations changing, you know, so there’s a lot going on there. But it could also be, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what this technology means for the future. Maybe you don’t need to bring on more workers because your ability to kind of use and adapt this technologies coming online. And so like that could be part of it. I think there’s another piece, you know, we have a lot of discussion about ai, but I do think that there’s, there could be a, a technology angle to this that’s, that is. Not in the AI technologies, but maybe just some of the more basic kind of automation is again, right after, you know, the, the pandemic recession as we came out of a, you know, very rapid recovery, uh, there was, there was a lot of hiring or that, ’cause businesses had done a lot of firing and they needed to bring back workers really rapidly and we actually had a period of labor shortages. There were workers moving around a lot and there were, that also put a lot of pressure on some employers, particularly in service sector, to automate more ’cause they just couldn’t get the workers, so they needed to bring technology. Online to help, you know, fill the gap. And over time, you know, businesses though, they haven’t done as much hiring, they have been firing. So the workers, they have longer tenures, have more experience, they’re probably more productive. So maybe businesses can kind of, you know, get away with not doing more hiring. ’cause the people they have there can kind of keep up with it. Um, and they’ve done some more automation. I don’t think those are sustainable. I think we’re going to need to see hiring pickup in terms of, of staying with, um, you know, as expanding, uh, demand from customers. But I won’t pretend to know what AI means for the future of the labor force. Right. So like there could be, I think that’s a big conversation about we’re headed, where we’re headed. I think it’s probably a pretty small slice of explaining. Where we’re at right now. You know, it’s interesting because obviously there was a lot of concerns about rising inflation, and particularly in the context of, you know, tariffs and, and among those types of things that were, were, um, coming down the pipe. And as it turns out, inflation seems to be coming down. How do you explain that from where you sit? Because it, it, it seems sort of to contradict a lot of what, you know, many economists believe to be likely. So when thinking about the effects of tariffs on inflation and this, this idea that it didn’t end up being as much of a factors we had really feared, uh, you know, a year ago. I think there’s a few things to keep in mind. One, the announced tariffs, uh. Didn’t come to pass fully. Right? So there’s a big difference between some of the, the, the initial announcements, whether it was on Liberation Day, April 2nd, or the initial kind of retaliation tit for tat with China, where we ended up with some triple digit, uh, tariff numbers. Those didn’t end up being where we, we ended now tariff, the effect of tariff rate. Is much higher than it was before. Right. Uh, president Trump came into office for the second time, so like, I don’t wanna minimize the, the, the increase in tariffs and the US government collected about $200 billion last year in, in additional tariffs. But there is a, there’s a good bit of daylight between what was announced and where we actually ended up. Businesses also proved very capable of trying to avoid those tariffs and not in like a. Illegal kind of way of avoiding them, but, but using inventories like trying to get ahead of them. We know the tariffs are tariffs. There’s been some evidence that, that it’s businesses are gonna start passing on the tariff cost increase when it’s actually tied to the inventories that they’re putting out in front of customers. And for some of our goods, like say apparel or things that have long seasons or come from, you know, all across the world, it actually takes quite a bit of time from the inventories being what actually shows up in front of customers. So there’s been the ability to. Kind of get around the tariffs ’cause they were rolling in. And so do be smart in terms of your inventories. And then it just takes time for those inventories to be, you know, um, to come down. Mm-hmm. By, there’s been several studies at this place, at this point that, that demonstrate that the, the tariffs, the cost of the tariffs is coming into the us. So the, it’s always the importer that pays the tariff, like literally writes the check to the US government. But it’s possible that the foreign producer could say, reduce their prices on what they’re, you know, paying or what they’re asking to be paid for that, uh, imported good. And then that would be a way of the foreign producer sharing the cost of the tariff. But everything that we see from the M Court data suggests that a very small fraction, probably less than 10%. Of the total tariff burden is being born by, at least at this point, born by the foreign producers. So it’s coming into the us. It’s sitting with either US businesses that are importing the goods or have the goods at some point in their, you know, in their supply chains and, and with us customers, the consumers we have, we’ve seen. I think you can really look at the inflation data. You can see the goods prices, which often are kind of a drag on inflation that they did turn around. They’re, they’re putting upward pressure on inflation. It’s not massive. It doesn’t explain all of these, you know, 200 billion in tariff costs, but then it is, it’s sitting with businesses. The effects still, it’s still just not that long enough to really understand. You know what, what the implications. It’s possible. I, I think that’s true with any, with any big policy change. Like it doesn’t happen overnight. I think that’s one thing that a lot of, a lot of economic models that, like, they’re, they’re very sensitive, right? Like as soon as a policy change happens, the models will kind of tell us something pretty dramatic in terms of adjustments. But this last year was a reminder, like when there’s, when there’s a big cost, there’s gonna be a lot of attempts to adjust around it to try to minimize that cost and then. It takes time, like in the real world, like the interactions are much more complex. You know, inventory lags all of the, like, it takes time to move its way through. So I think we’re not done with the pass through. I think we’ll probably still see more come to consumers, but businesses could decide to bear that cost. They, they could, you know, with profit margins. I mean some of, some of the inflationary environment in the pandemic did allow. There were very broad base increases in prices. You did see some companies be profitable from that because it was, there was a, you know, some of the costs were more targeted, but the, you know, the, the price increases were broad. So it could be a time where businesses see that, you know, consumers are more price sensitive now than they were in 21, 20 21, 20 22, so they’re not passing as much on it. Could be that that’s part of where. Like the cost businesses are dealing with that cost by maybe doing less hiring as opposed to passing it on to consumers. Uh, you know, they could be taking a hit with their profits. They, you know, so like, it doesn’t have to go all the way through to consumers. There are different levers that can be pulled. I do think we’ll still see some pass through in the, in probably the first half of this year, and that’s assuming that our whole tariff regime. Sit still, right? It looks like once again we might be, uh, increasing those tariffs, but, um, so yeah, I think it’s just tracing, you know, the tariffs through the system is really complicated. And one last thing I’ll say about the tariffs is they’re not just tariffs on goods that go to consumers. These tariffs have been broad enough that we’re also taring imported goods that are used by our manufacturers used for our, by our businesses in their production. So then it can take a really long time for that to end up with the, you know, the end customer could be a business to start with, and then it moves its way down. So I think these are just, you know, the costs are real. We can see the tariffs have been collected, the costs are there. We can see in the import data, there haven’t been import price data, there haven’t been a lot of adjustments by the foreign suppliers. So then it’s just a question of, we have these costs. Where did the cost go? I believe the last GEP was 4.3% and, uh, inflation was around 2.6, 2.7, or at least core. You’ve obviously, uh, worked at the Fed. Um, give us a sense of the situation that the Fed is trying to figure out here. Like what do they do with these numbers and, you know, all of the issues that surround them. The work at the Fed, I mean, it, it’s laser focused on the, the response, the mandates that the Fed has. So with maximum employment and price stability and with maximum employment, that’s not something that can be easily defined. It’s not like it’s a particular unemployment rate, it’s not a particular payroll number. But I mean, broadly speaking, it’s, you know, do, are, you know, the people who wanna work, are they working? In such a way that it’s not putting pressure on inflation, right? Like labor shortages that end up with wage increases that just, you know, end up with inflation. Like that would be a situation where the Fed would actually want to kind of help restrain some of the. Uh, employment growth. And we, we saw that in this cycle. I mean, the Fed raised rates a lot in 2022 and 2023. Uh, so that’s the maximum employment on the stable prices. The Fed has set a target of the 2%, uh, year over year PCE inflation. So a little different than the CPI inflation, but very much related. And, and it’s one, I mean, that’s, that’s the goal, right? And it, uh. So it starts with those two pieces and, and what’s been, I think what’s been challenging in say the last year as the Fed was, you know, trying to figure out what it was gonna do with interest rates was the fact that it, there was pressure on both sides of the mandate. Mm-hmm. Um, and not necessarily the, well, I mean, inflation itself has, was above the 2%. It continues to be above the 2%. Target has been. Since 2021. Now the Fed’s policy doesn’t have a look back, but I mean, they do worry that the longer inflation stays closer to three than two businesses. Consumers are gonna start to kind of embed three into their actions, their expectations. Then you kind of get stuck there. So like that, that both, you know, they were missing on the inflation mandate and there were, there were concerns that the, that we might see inflation get stuck above the mandate and the way you dislodge it if it gets stuck. Could end up risking a recession, right? So the Fed doesn’t want that to happen. So that’s a real concern. But then on the employment side, you know, we started out talking about the small rule, the rising unemployment rate. We’ve seen the unemployment rate rising. And then last year in particular, it wasn’t just the unemployment rate rising, we saw job creation just really take a leg down. Um. Some of that probably is less immigration population aging, so less supply of workers, which isn’t something the Fed would react to. ’cause that, I mean, if you don’t have as many people that wanna work, you don’t need to create as many jobs. But the unemployment rate was rising, so it’s clear, like there just wasn’t, there wasn’t enough job creation to keep up with, um, the workers who were there, uh, to work. And, and there was a concern that this could, could spiral out. Those small increased unemployment rate that, that very low level of job creation. And frankly, if you look at, I mean the, I mean, we have multiple months and probably more after revisions of declines in payroll employment. Mm-hmm. Like if you looked at the labor market data, you’d be like, aren’t we in a recession or like on the edge of one? Again, that’s not where we’re at, but it, it certainly gave that, that risk. Things could be slowing down. And, and the, the last piece that was really important in the Fed’s decisions was where, where’s the federal funds rate? Where are the interest rate, the policy interest rate they control? And it was still relatively high. For, for recent history, right. Not in the long history of the Fed, but mm-hmm. And so, like the Fed had raised, they’d raised interest rates quite aggressively to fight the inflation in 2022. They’d very gradually lowered it. Some was taken out in 2023 because made some pro, made quite a bit of progress on inflation in, or in 2024, they lowered the rates in 2025, the 75 basis points of cuts that the Fed did. It was out of concern. Of the labor market unraveling a risk, not a, not saying, hey, the labor market is unraveling, but saying the risk that the downside risk to employment are larger and more worrisome than the upside risk to inflation. So this inflation getting stuck, is that still the case as a going into 2026 here? So, you know, even, even last year we saw, we listened to Fed officials, there’s quite a bit of disagreement. Because it was a tough situation to read. There are some Fed officials that were more focused on inflation, some that were more focused on the employment side. Uh, and it really was just a matter of kind of reading the economy and trying to figure out this, a very unusual situation, like where, where was this headed? What did the Fed need to do? In the end, the consensus on the Fed was to do the rate cuts, kind of front load them. They talked a lot about it as insurance. They’re taking out insurance against the labor market deteriorating. And I think with that approach, in all likelihood, and there’s been certainly signaling of this, that when they meet at the end of January, it’ll, they’re unlikely to move again. That this is, this will be an opportunity to hold steady, be patient the Fed has, has taken out their restriction. So they don’t have the higher rates, so they’ve pulled rates down. We also know that early this year there’s various kinds of fiscal support that are coming online or tax cuts to households and to businesses that should give a little extra lift, uh, to the economy. So I think it’s a period of the Fed waiting to see what the effects of their policy changes are, seeing what the effects of the fiscal policy with the expectation this will be enough to stabilize the labor market. Even help get it back on track and really what the Fed would like. I mean, we’ll see what they get, but they’d really like the next cut to be a good news cut. Like inflation. Oh look, it’s moving back down again. We’re making clear progress back to 2%. I think that’s probably gonna take maybe even till the middle of this year to build that case. A strong case for the disinflation. Mm-hmm. But that’s, that’s what they would, would like to do. But they’re gonna keep an eye on the labor market. But nothing we’ve seen in the most recent data suggests that they gotta get moving like that. There’s some, you know, real pressure building. Um, in fact, the labor market looks a little bit better probably than when they met in December and inflation. Showing some signs of progress, but it, it’s pretty bumpy in terms of, there’s a lot of noise in the data at the moment. You mentioned, um, the Fed’s mandate and you know, certainly that’s something, um, that, uh, you know, that, that we know the Fed looks at these unemployment numbers that look at inflation. I’m curious though, that there’s, you know, there is this push and pull with the treasury. In particular, you know, looking at the amount of, of, of, of bonds that need to be refinanced, that kind of thing. I mean, presumably that’s one of the reasons why the Trump administration is pushing so hard, uh, on the Fed to reduce, um, you know, to reduce rates so that you know, this sovereign debt can be refinanced at a, something a little bit more palatable. How much of that actually. I know it’s not supposed to play a part in the Federal Reserve’s actions, but in reality is there, is there that kind of, you know, thinking that, you know, they have to, they, they may try to play ball a little bit with the, with the situation, with the debt. Yeah. There, the, the Fed is not playing ball right now with the administration. Uh, but, but there have been, there have been times in our past. So during World War II, there was an explicit cooperation between the Fed and the Treasury. The Fed kept interest rates low. Both the federal funds rates, so the short term interest rates, they also did, uh, some purchases of longer term to help keep longer term rates down. Right. So I mean, the, the Fed really, they, their policy was oriented exactly on this objective, keeping the borrowing cost of the US government low because it was financing the war effort. So, so there have been times where the Fed has cooperated with treasury. Now, when they came out of World War ii. What happened is, you know, treasury wants to keep interest rates low. This is good for, you know, the economy, good for growth, but it was, it really was creating a lot of inflationary pressures and it took until the early 1950s for the Fed to kind of regain its kind of operational independence from treasury and then go back to pursuing, you know, inflation as a key goal. And then also in the late seventies and maximum employment was added as an explicit goal. So we’re in a place now where. It’s employment, it’s inflation, it, there was quite, um, I mean, president Trump and some other officials have been, you know, very open about saying rates should be low to help with the deficit, with funding the gov. So like, it’s, it’s been in the discussion in the air. But that’s not, that’s not a mandate that Congress has given the Fed. That’s not what they’re pursuing. It does, you know, but things can change at the Fed. We’re gonna see a change in leadership this year with a new Fed chair. Um, the Fed always, I mean, Congress created the Federal Reserve. It’s changed its abilities, its responsibilities over time. I don’t wanna say that we’ll never get back to a place where the Fed thinks about. Its effect on the deficit. I mean, they’re watching it, they know, right? They’re tracking all these aspects of the economy. But in terms of what’s driving the Fed’s decisions about what the, the federal funds rate should be, that’s not part of the calculus right now. Yeah. Um, you know, another, just another question is for clarity. You know, the, the, um, officially right now there’s, there’s no quantitative easing. However, there is. Uh, you know, I’ve been reading, uh, about even, I think even today, there was a, a fair amount of liquidity, uh, being injected in by the Fed. Can you, for people who don’t understand the mechanics of this and what the difference in terminology is, can you explain to us maybe what the difference is between quantitative easing and what’s being done right now? So just as for context, where quantitative easing even came from. So if we go back to the global financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve, in response to that recession, pulled the federal funds rate all the way to zero. Cut rates to zero And as sure many of us remember that that recession was a very deep and long recession. So, and the unemployment rate was, you know, 10% and inflation was not a problem. So the, the Fed would want in that environment to do more to support the economy. But when the federal funds rate is at zero, that’s, its, that has been its primary tool. Well, that’s, that’s. Stepped out. So then as a question of, well, what else could we do to help support the economy? And, and there, there were. Different possibilities. Uh, some European central banks looked at, you know, they actually did negative interest rates or tried to pull their policy rates, and that’s not what the US did. What was done was to do purchases of, uh, treasuries. Uh, there’s also been purchases of mortgage backed securities, and this is where the Fed is. I mean, and, and they’re creating reserves. So the fed, I guess, secretary, uh. Treasury doesn’t refer to it as magic money. Um, you know, they create reserves and then they’re going out and they’re buying tr so they’re pushing that liquidity, that demand into markets. And if you’re, if there’s a lot more demand for treasuries, well, the price of the treasuries will go up. The yield comes down. Interest rates go down. Yep. Interest rates go down. So they. They were, the Fed wanted to support the economy more. That was the tool that they used to do it. So when, when the Fed talks about quantitative easing, it’s not just the tool, the asset purchases, it’s also the intent, right? They wouldn’t do quantitative easing right now. ’cause if the Fed thought they really need to stimulate the economy more, they’ve still got like. More than three percentage points they could cut from the federal funds rate. Like if the issue were right now, we need to like get the economy going, they’re gonna like cut the funds rate and do it that way. They wouldn’t be pur like purchasing assets, purchasing treasuries to do that. But what what happened is between the global financial crisis, the Great recession, so all the asset purchases done then. There was some, some runoff of the balance sheet, but then again, in the pandemic there were a lot of asset purchases. Uh, the Fed has a really big balance sheet, and it has, uh, it, it kind of changes the way that the Fed can even just move around the federal funds rate. Like, I don’t wanna get too much into the, the technicals, but it’s, it’s just, you know, when the Fed says, well, we wanna lower the, the funds rate to 3.5%. In the old days, they could kind of do, you know, with the bank reserves and they could like, make these small purchases and it would, it would make that stick. Now with, there’s, uh, banks have a lot of reserves, so they’re not as responsive. And so just to kind of, there’s like the, the technical, the tools, the Fed has to just make it happen. In terms of operationally, it means that they have to do some purchases now and then they call their, I mean the new name they have for these are reserve management. Purchases. So it’s really about operations. It’s not about, but it does mean they’re purchasing assets. So if you’re just focused on like the Fed’s purchasing assets, they’re putting liquidity into the system. Yes, they are doing that, but it’s not with the intent to kind of push the economy to run harder. It’s just enough liquidity to keep. The federal funds rate stable at the level that they wanted to be at, to just make sure that all these operations are short in the very short term lending markets amongst banks, that it’s all kind of working as mm-hmm. As it should be. So it’s more about operations and it’s about stimulus policy. Right. A lot of our, um, a lot of our listeners are real estate owners, investors, and they’re, you know, they think about, um. Mortgage rates and that kind of thing. There was recently a, a pretty significant, well, I don’t know how significant it really was. I think it was about, was it maybe $250 billion worth of mortgage backed securities purchased by Fannie Mae. Um, that ca can you talk about the purpose of that and really the, you know, what kind of effect that would actually, we could actually expect from that. It’s certainly been, I mean it’s, it is clear. You know, we talked about one reason that the administration would want interest rates down. It’d be like financing the deficit. Right. Another reason that very much pulls into kind of the affordability debate is we want interest rates lower, one of them lower for consumers. Now the White House has put a lot of pressure on the Fed for them to lower rates even faster than they have. Has not played ball with that. But then the Fed has lowered its rates. The Feds rates are very short term rates, and the federal funds rate is like an overnight rate with between banks. Right. So it, and it has an effect on, you know. Credit card rates, short term rates, but it’s not one, it, it has an effect, but it’s really not like driving necessarily 30 year mortgage rates or you know, some of the longer term rates. There’s a lot of other factors that go into that, and so in this kind of, you know, push for lower mortgage rates. Pushing on the Fed is not the only lever to pull, right? The administration has other levers that they could potentially pull, um, in trying to influence mortgage rates. Now, there, I’d argue the administration’s tools here, like the, the $200 billion, Fannie and Freddie purchase that you mentioned. That really is about trying to reduce the spread. Between mortgages and treasuries. So in some ways it sounds similar, like, oh, fed and Franny, which are, you know, GSEs. So part, part of the, you know, government right now, at least they were privatized during the global financial crisis. You think, oh, they’re going out and purchasing this Sounds a lot like the Fed going out and purchasing. There are there, there’s some parallels, but we need to remember, Fannie and Freddie don’t create money. The Fed, when they start, when they start the process of their quantitative easing, they’re creating reserves like they’re actually creating liquidity and money supply. Fannie and Freddie have authorization to be able to make these purchases, but they’re not like the fed. They’re not creating reserves, but they can, so I don’t wanna think about them like bringing down the whole set of interest rates, but they can affect this spread between mortgages and say treasuries. Right? And so, because again, if you’re, if the. If the GSEs are going out, they’re purchasing mortgage backed securities, well that’s increasing demand for those, and that can push down the rates, that can like squeeze that spread. And, and while the announcement has been made, you know, I mean they’re, they’re in the early stages of putting that in place, but we even on the announcements, saw a response in financial markets and you’re seeing some movement down, uh, in mortgage rates now. It was. Pretty modest, right? And, and 200 billion while, you know, not nothing, uh, really pales in comparison to like the scale of say, the quantitative easing that the Fed did. Um, and there are probably other, but the, you know, the administration’s not done. It doesn’t necessarily have to be that Fannie and Freddie do more purchases. The the spread between mortgage rates and treasuries is pretty substantial. There’s other places where, you know, the fees that go into getting a mortgage are quite a bit larger than they were before the, the global financial crisis. So maybe they go in and try to chip away at the fees and, you know, so there’s, there’s different levers. And I fully expect, and I think we’re gonna get some announcements here again soon on the White Houses. Housing affordability agenda. So there may be other, other ways that they’re trying to, uh, influence, uh, the mortgage spreads. But that’s, that’s what that is all about. And it, it should have, and it looks like, you know, it’s having some effect in terms of bringing rates down, but it likely, it’d be modest, like in the 10 basis points, maybe 20 if they ramp up the program some. But like, it, you know, it’s, it, it, you know, every, every bit counts. But this is not a. Uh, this won’t be enough to, you know, move rates down, dramatic mortgage rates down dramatically, uh, when you, when you look at the economy. Um, and I, I, I think just, you know, one last question. I mean, I just in terms of, you know, the people listening to this are. They’re, they’re people, you know, with jobs and who are trying to invest their money, and they’re trying to, you know, build long-term wealth, but they’re, you know, everybody’s worried about what’s happening with the economy. What, what, what do you think, like, just as, um, um, you know, perspective for people to understand or try to have some framework for how to look at what’s going on in the economy. How they should judge it. Like what would you suggest, like just for mom and pop investors trying to, what is happening with the economy? I’m not an economist. What, what are the, what are the things that you think they should consider studying up on, looking into a little bit? One challenge for a lot of investors, I mean, frankly, it’s, it’s been a challenge that I try to deal with too. Uh, we’re, we’re in an environment where there’s just. There’s so much news coming out of DC uh, with the White House and policies and the Fed, and you know, I mean, like, there’s just, there’s a lot. The headlines are big. And like I talked about with the tariffs, we had like really big tariff announcements. The really scary numbers were, and then it like dialed back and then we pushed through it and it’s like, and it’s this remembering that, um. There’s always a tendency to have this idea that the, the president really runs the economy. I mean, that’s not just about this administration. That’s like a longstanding, you know, the president gets, uh, blame or credit for the economy when really, right. Like we have a over 33, $30 trillion economy, hundreds of millions of workers, tens of millions of businesses. Like this is not about one administration. And so we always need to be careful about. Putting too much weight on the policies coming out of dc. Uh, and you know, last year if you really just listened to all the, you know, we’re cutting immigration, we’re raising tariffs, we’re doing, you know, all, there’s a lot of uncertainty in Doge. Well then you might have missed, like, there’s a bunch of AI investment happening and we’ve got a lot of growth in the economy and while consumers are still pretty resilient, so you, it’s kind of like. Tuning down the volume, some coming out of Washington, especially the like every twist and turn. Uh, and then kind of focusing in on the fundamentals. I will say, you know, you don’t wanna turn down DC too far because we, we do have some like big picture events that could play out over many years. Right. So kind of keeping an eye on it, but for the long game. As opposed to reacting to every twist and turn, every policy announcement, because a lot of this clearly is more of a negotiation than it is like, we’re gonna actually do this. So, you know, as investors, you don’t wanna get whipped around by the latest headline, but you also can’t put your head in the sand. Like you gotta kind of try and find a way to pull the signal out of the noise. And it is really. It’s really hard. Yeah. Like this has been a challenging time and the, the US economy’s been doing things that are not typical. We talked about some of the things with the labor market and we are running some policy experiments that haven’t been run in a long time, so things could change pretty dramatically. But I think it’s just trying to absorb the information, not get too wound up about it, but like also keep an eye on like what’s good for long-term growth. Yeah. Because it’s good for long-term productivity. Thank you so much Dr. Sahm. It’s uh, it’s been a pleasure talking to you on, uh, wealth Formula Podcast today. Great. Thank you so much. You make a lot of money but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concept. Here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Hope you enjoyed it. It was Claudia Sahm. She is, uh, she’s a very, very smart lady. And, uh, just a reminder, if you have not done so, uh, I, I don’t frequently ask to do, do this, but, uh, make sure you give the show. Five stars and a positive review because that’s how we’re getting, you know, really high quality people like Claudia on the show, I’ve been around for a long time. It helps that the show is, you know, like over a decade old and all that stuff too. But, uh, anything you can do to support would be very helpful. And also one more reminder, uh, if you have not done so and you weren’t a credit investor, make sure you sign up for that investor club. At Wealth formula.com. That’s it for me. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast. This is about Joffrey signing out. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheelwright and Ken m. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

Keith shares how a recent trip to Colorado Springs and a changing commission landscape reveal what really matters for real estate investors now From there, the show dives into the three levers investors truly control—leverage, operations, and relationships—before welcoming lender Caeli Ridge to break down the major mortgage options for investors. You'll hear how different loan types fit different strategies: from your first conventional "golden ticket" loans, to DSCR loans based on property income, to short-term fix-and-flip and bridge loans that prioritize speed and flexibility.  The episode then moves into how more advanced investors can scale beyond 10 doors, navigate debt-to-income and tax strategy, and even approach financing for short-term rentals—all while highlighting why having the right lending partner and long-term plan can make a big difference to your results. Episode Page: GetRichEducation.com/591 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  For predictable 10-12% quarterly returns, visit FreedomFamilyInvestments.com/GRE or text  1-937-795-8989 to speak with a freedom coach Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— GREletter.com  Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold with new ways to think about your life through goals momentum in the real estate market. Then learn about various mortgage loan types, conventional DSCR, fix and flip, bridge loans, short term rental loans and more. Knowing which loans to use can save you millions and learn the fatal mortgage mistakes you must avoid today on get rich education.   Corey Coates  0:29   since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads and 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Speaker 1  1:14   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:30   Welcome to GRE from Winnebago, Minnesota to Winnipeg, Manitoba, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 before we get into the mortgage discussion, where we'll discuss five or 10 different investor loan types and their various pros and cons, which could save you millions over the course of your life. I shared with you that I traveled to Colorado A couple weeks ago, for a goals retreat hosted by the real estate guys, top notch event, I spent extra time there in Colorado Springs, because I find it really livable, and I spent five hours with a local realtor there, one day out and about visiting properties in the area I'm potentially looking for a home or a second home. And by the way, how is this for a price range? The realtor wanted to know what my Buy Box is, and since I'm just learning the Colorado Springs market, I told him I'm willing to spend between 400k and 1.2 million on the property, yeah, pretty wide range, a mile wide. Fortunately, my other Buy Box criteria are more narrow and specific, and I have got to say, I'm surprised at how low the area's home prices are. I thought they'd be higher. Interestingly, before touring homes, my buyer agent wanted me to sign a six month exclusive representation agreement. Fair enough, that's standard stuff. It was on the agreement, though, that I as the buyer pay a 3% commission up on the purchase, and the seller would presumably pay the other 3% to make up that total 6% commission for the agent compensation. Well, historically, the seller paid the entire 6% and this, of course, goes back to the NAR settlement, and that ruling that became effective in August of 2024 you probably remember this, and I talked about it on the show back then, and how it's not really that big of a deal, especially to investors like us, because at GRE marketplace and with our GRE investment coaching, it's a direct model. There's zero commission on either side, and then you, in turn, get some of those savings, but out in the larger world and in the owner occupant world. Well, that rule change that started a year and a half ago. It means that sellers are no longer required to pay the buyer's agent. Instead, the fee is now negotiable between buyers and their agent. The other change is that property listings no longer display the buyer agent's commission offer. But here's what's interesting in practice, and what really ends up happening in the end, in most cases, is that the seller still pays the full commission and compensates both agents that full 6% sometimes it's 5% instead of six buyers and buyer agents, they still operate under the seller pays. And that's largely because that has just been the norm. It's what's seemingly always been done. It's what buyers are used to. And the reason that that often persists. Is because the seller is the party in the transaction that has that thick equity in the property, deep equity, and buyers are the ones often just trying to scrape together whatever they can for a down payment and closing costs. Buyers are not going to be able to come up with another 15k for an agent commission when they're buying a 500k property, that's 3% especially today, this is true because American homeowners the seller then still have record equity positions of about 300k an all time high. Nearly half of mortgaged homes are considered equity rich. What does equity rich mean? It means that the loan balance is less than half of the home's value, yeah, the seller has the means to pay the full commission. So the point is, in practice, the seller, yeah, still pays that full five to 6% commission in the overwhelming majority of cases, and the buyer pays nothing. And if that does change, it's going to take a long time. You know, a lot of these evanescent real estate stories that people think are going to have some seismic impact. It rarely does, like this erstwhile NAR ruling or the 50 year mortgage proposal or banning big institutions for buying more single family rentals. You know, this stuff is like one little baseball sized asteroid striking an entire planet. I mean, it's like a barely discernible impact. Real estate is anchored in one place like Jabba the Hut. It is solid. These stories are interesting, but they're not impactful.   Keith Weinhold  6:52   Instead, I've mentioned it before. What are three things you control in real estate that really matter. And these are evergreen things. First, it's, how many dollars are you leveraging? That's where your wealth is going to come from. In fact, we're going to discuss that today with mortgage loan types. Second, what's the efficiency of operations on your existing properties? And thirdly, what is the quality of your relationships? And actually, we're addressing the third one today too, talking to a lender that you could make part of your team. You can control these three things. They're unyielding, they're evergreen, they're long term, and they all have gratitas and impact those three things, leverage operations and relationships. Now my agent drops me off and picks me up from my hotel here at the Broadmoor in Colorado Springs. This was also the event hotel for the goals retreat. I just extended my stay to hang out in the area. Look at real estate, do some climbing on Pikes Peak. Pro tip for you on hotel room rates, talk to a human being before I booked my stay, I called the front desk and asked them if they could extend the attractive event room rate to more nights on my extended stay. And they agreed. You might have heard of the Broadmoor. It is well known. It's been here for more than 100 years, and it is such a fine place to stay. Let me tell you about this special piece of real estate. In fact, I've thought it through, and I will now hereby proclaim that it is the finest us hotel experience that I've ever had in my life. I say us because I stayed at an amazing place in Dubai. But what makes the Broadmoor stand alone? It's the details and the service. A lot of hotels are nice, but this is on a different level. And I don't say this to brag, and this is because you probably can afford to stay here, yeah, like I have. You might have paid more elsewhere in your life for a lesser hotel, although I am here in the low seasons. Okay, now, sure, you've got views of the Rockies and a man made lake and waterfall and even a beautiful chandelier in my hotel room. The thing that sets it apart, though, is you have this service that feels old world and not corporate. That's what makes the difference. The Broadmoor is horse themed, since horses are a symbol of the American West. There are about 800 rooms here. It's kind of like a self contained adult Disneyland championship golf courses, a world class spa, even an outdoor lap swimming pool like that has lanes that I swam in one morning for. Fine dining, casual dining, access to hiking, fly fishing, even falconry, zip lines, tennis, pickleball pools. Take the cog railway to the Pikes Peak, Summit. Okay. Now, other nice hotels have attractions that are sort of like that, but when I rave about the service, it's the little things they are knocking on my door before 10am to come in and clean the room. And you know how so commonly, when you first check into your hotel room and you look in the closet, there are not enough clothing hangers, and they're all like stupidly mismatched. These all match. They're all nice wood, and there are plenty of them. So I'm talking about these details. I'm telling you. I had dinner at one of the broadmoor's restaurants the other night. I just happened to take a close look at the tag on the napkin. Sure enough, it is made in Italy. I mean, jeez, no detail is overlooked at this stellar place. In fact, here's what I'll do. You know, I'll just completely stop my Colorado Springs home search right now. Instead, I'm going to stop down by the Broadmoor front desk, tell him to give me some moving boxes, because I'm moving into the Broadmoor and I'll be here for the next decade. Start forwarding my mail here and everything. And hey, at least I was courteous enough to give them notice. I can't stay here too long, or my standards will be rising faster than my net worth. Yeah, yeah. Can't go to sleep with a mint on your pillow every night, I suppose.    Keith Weinhold  11:38   Now, the reason I came here now is to attend that aforementioned goals retreat, and let me take all the time and all the resources that I put into being here and distill them into just a few of the most salient takeaways for you. Goals should be smart, strategic, measurable, actionable, relevant and time based, they must be written down. Now, how would you describe yourself to somebody else that didn't know who you were? Write that down next. What do you think your reputation is? How would others describe you? Write that down now that you can see how you describe yourself and how others describe you, you can see that there's a gap there. That gap is what you need to work on. I learned that goal should be written in the present tense, not the future tense. I did not know that before. For example, say it is January 1, 2035, and I own $5 million in rental property. That's an example of how you would do that. So take future events and write them in the present tense. Other questions at the goals retreat that got really introspective are, what are you really going to do with your life? And write down that answer. Sheesh, that is tough. And if you think that's a hard question for you to ask of yourself, the next one is even harder. It's simply why? Why is that where you're going with your life? And then write that down? I mean, would you answer questions like this for yourself? And you really think about it, that can occupy a new segment of your entire headspace. It is a big cognitive load, and a last one to leave you with is to dream not just big, but gigantic. Get it out there, write down a dream that interests you, but it's so grandiose that you're actually embarrassed to tell someone about this stretch dream, for example, for me, it's the first person to walk on another planet. No human has ever done that, and this would most likely happen on Mars. See, this is so grand that is sort of embarrassing for me to even share that with you. It almost makes you sound Loony, like I would have to learn so many new skills to travel to and walk on Mars. But you should write down a bunch of other goals too. You're sort of brainstorming on goals, attainable goals. Recall that is the A in the SMART goals acronym, you want to write down a bunch of attainable ones, not just that stretch one. So for attainable ones, one of them is for me to become the highest man on earth. To give you an example. And I attempted that goal two years ago, and I failed. I told you about that at that time. But see now, compared to my embarrassing stretch goal of walking on Mars, the highest man on earth feels attainable, I know what it takes to achieve it, and it's worth doing, ah, but it's a grind to get there, yet it would be worth it. Those are some quick take. Ways from the real estate guys goals retreat while on stage the event host Robert helms he took a minute respite from the goals material, and he recognized the fact that, as he calls it, the four OG real estate podcasters are all in the same room. One of them is helms himself, and now I feel like the other three are all older and doing it longer than me. I was one of the four that he mentioned. But you know, there is only one podcast that was mentioned from stage, and that is that Robert helms told the audience that they should be listening to the get rich education podcast. That was a nice thing to say, and he is always a gracious giver.   Keith Weinhold  15:45   Next, we're talking about four major loan types, conventional DSCR, fix and flip and then bridge loans. When we discuss the first two parts of it could sound repetitive, but you'll see why we do this, because then you'll be able to compare it to nichey loan types that we discuss, for example, the speed of a bridge loan, where you can get funded in just one week, compared to a slower conventional loan. The mortgage landscape changes. I still remember how in 2012 we had still somewhat freshly emerged from the global financial crisis, and back then, you could only get four conventional loans, four rental properties, not 10 like you can today, 20 married. So get your loans while you can, you probably won't always be able to get 10 loans. We'll start with loan types that are more for beginners, and then we'll get to advanced material. Let's welcome back one of our favorite recurring guests.   Keith Weinhold  16:54   You can make millions more throughout your life by understanding mortgage loans. This is key, and today it's the return of the woman that's created more financial freedom through real estate than any other lender in the entire nation, because she's the president of ridge lender group. Hey, it's time for a big welcome back to the incomparable, yet somehow still so approachable Chaley Ridge   Caeli Ridge  17:16   my Keith, thank you for having me. I love being here. I love what you're doing. It's my pleasure, sir.   Keith Weinhold  17:23   And our followers, our listeners, have been approaching you since 2015 you're one of the longest running guests, truly one of the OGS around here at GRE and now Caeli, before we discuss loan types. You know, we don't really talk politics on this show rather policies, and we're in the midst of a presidential administration that often, in the name of the word affordability, is trying to supremely shake things up in the housing market. Help us dissect what matters and what won't.   Caeli Ridge  17:58   I have found that at least as it relates to current administration, whoever that might be, I wait for the buzzwords or the taglines to become the actual policy. Like you said, That's a good point in this case. You know, you've got things floating around, like the 50 year mortgage cutting off the hedge fund guys and that kind of thing. Whether or not, those things come to fruition. I'm happy to give my opinion on them. I do not think that it's going to move the needle much for the people that you and I serve with regard to I mean, just taking them one at a time, I don't think that the 50 year is going to come to fruition. Just first and foremost, if it did do, I think it would be a good idea for a homeowner, probably not, but for an investor, maybe if there's some way that we can keep our payment lower, given the maturity date of a mortgage for an investment property is usually about five years. I mean, I know that this is a 30 year fixed mortgage, but statistically speaking, the average shelf life of a non owner occupied mortgage is about five years. So getting a 50 year amortization, if that were going to reduce the payment, I don't think is a bad thing for an investor, however, and this may get a little bit technical for the listeners, so I apologize in advance if we were to go to a 50 Year am the adjustments, something called, and you and I have talked about this before, something called an llpa, that stands for loan level price adjustment, I think would be such that it could end up defeating the purpose of having the longer term amortization, because I think the interest rates would be higher and I think they may offset so that was a long way to say. One, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't think it's actually going to get to its final resting place. And two, would it be a good idea for investors, yeah, I think it would be worth considering if it kept the payment lower. Okay, that's that as the other piece to cutting off the hedge funds, the big, you know, BlackRock, some of the big players, and giving them access to the residential housing and first right of infusion or etc, because they've got such deep pockets. You. It's such a small amount to what our individual investors are going to have access to that I don't think that that moves the needle either. So I don't know if I'm answering the question, except to say anything that they're going to tout, I would wait for it to actually become written in stone and pass by the rest of the powers that be before I would get excited about or concerned about any of it.   Keith Weinhold  20:21   This is pretty parallel with what I've been telling our listeners. All these things seem to make splashy news, but I haven't seen anything that's going to make a deep impact yet, whether it's the 50 year mortgage, which probably won't even come to fruition, or if it's doing these mortgage bond buy downs in order to bring more liquidity into the market and bring rates down, or if it sees any of these other things being discussed with these institutional investors, since they already own such a smaller proportion of the housing market than a lot of people think, we'll discuss seasoned real estate investors and their loans shortly, but first for newer real estate investors, you Know, chili, I kind of think of four or more loan types that a beginner should be familiar with. I think of conventional loans, dscrs, fix and flips and then bridge loans, the first one with conventional loans. What are the basics that someone should know?   Caeli Ridge  21:17   So first of all, you should know that there are 10 of these. We call them the golden tickets. I'm pretty sure I coined this, okay, 100 years ago, the golden ticket. We call the conventional aka Fannie Freddie, aka agency. They go by different names, but they all mean the same thing. We call them the golden tickets because it's the highest leverage and typically at the lowest interest rate you can find. Now I do have a hook in our conversation today about that. I'll get we'll get to it. There are 10 of these per qualified individual. So one of the first things that I would tell somebody is, is that if they are a partnership or a husband and wife team, you want to make sure to keep the debt obligation separate, because if you want to maximize these golden tickets, let's just say it's a husband and wife team. You each have, per qualification access to 10, and that includes a primary residence. In fact, let me just take a quick second and define what counts in the 10, because some people get this wrong. So the 10 golden tickets are counted by any residential property, single family, up to four Plex that has a loan on it, where the loan is in the individual name or personally guaranteed by the individual. That's where people get tied up. So if they went out and got a kind of more of a commercial type loan, that was in an LLC name, for example, but they signed a personal guarantee, per Fannie Freddie guidelines, that particular mortgage is going to count against the 10. So those would be some of the first pieces of news or detail I would give them about conventional    Keith Weinhold  22:40   for married couples, don't take ownership in both the husband and wife's name, either the husband or the wife. That way, you can get to 20 rather than 10. And yes, you do have to be mindful that your primary residence does count in that 10 or 20, whatever it might be. Anything else quickly with conventional loans, LTVs so on,    Caeli Ridge  23:01   yeah, LTV can go to 85% loan to value. So you get a little bit extra than you're going to get in some of the other loan product types. It will have PMI, private mortgage insurance, anything over 80% LTV will always have PMI on a more conforming, conventional basis. So keep that in mind. But the factor is pretty low. I would encourage people that are looking to stretch the almighty dollar. Do the math. Look at the 85 with PMI against, say, an 80% and see what are you giving up versus what you're getting. And then qualification stuff, you guys, my dumb joke, it's Keith's favorite. I'm sure vials of blood and DNA samples are sort of required for the Fannie Freddie loans. So just be prepared to supply or submit us the tax returns and pay stubs and bank statements and and all that stuff,   Keith Weinhold  23:44   you'll feel like you're getting fingerprinted almost for a conventional loan qualification. And the second one that I brought up DSCR loans, that's short for debt service coverage ratio. And these mortgages are pretty standard for rental properties. They're underwritten based on a property's income potential. So you know, the way I think of dscrs Chaley from the lender's perspective, is that sustainable cash flow is what matters. The rent has got to support the property's monthly mortgage payments. So we talked to us more about dscrs.    Caeli Ridge  24:15   Yeah, I love this product, and this is for somebody that either can't fit into the conventional Fannie Freddie box, or maybe they've exhausted their golden tickets and they're graduating and moving on. This is a great option that will reduce the amount of vials of blood and DNA samples that you're going to have to submit. It still provides for a 30 year fixed mortgage. The leverage is roughly the same, 80% in most cases, on a purchase. And to your point, the gross income divided by the principal, interest, taxes, insurance and Hoa, if it's applicable, is the simple formula, the easy method I'll give people, just to kind of solidify that math, is that if the gross rents were $1,000 a month, and if the PI TI was $1,000 a month, when you divide that, your debt service is 1.0 Now you can go as low, believe it or not, as low as a point seven, five, DSCR, they have those available be ready for the interest rate to get a little hair on it. Okay, it's going to be higher than what the 1.0 and above is going to be. But you can go as low as point seven, five, those are going to be for the investors that have found a property, maybe in distress, and they cannot show the current market value rent, perhaps, and it's on the low end. So you can still get that done at point seven, five, just be ready for a higher interest rate.   Keith Weinhold  25:30   So the DSCR loan an alternative for you, which might be especially useful, like Chaley touched on, if you've already exhausted your 10 golden ticket. Fannie Freddie loans, a DSCR of 1.2 for example, means that your rent income needs to exceed your principal, interest, taxes and insurance payment by 20% or more. That's what we're talking about here. And then Chile, those were more of loans for the buy and hold type of investor. Tell us about fix and flip loans.    Caeli Ridge  26:03   Yeah. So these are shorter term loan that will allow you to include not just the purchase of the property, but also some renovation or rehab money if you need that. And we're going to be looking at an ARV after repair value. So you've got a purchase price, you've got your renovation or scope of work budget. And then we're looking for an ARV with the ARV to be somewhere around 75% so what that means, if you've not heard of this before, you're going to take, let's say, $100,000 value. And if we want the ARV to be at 75% we're going to lend 75,000 is kind of the mix there. Those are quicker loans. You're going to be paying much higher rates on those. You know, between nine and 13% depending on the deal. The points are also going to be a little bit higher, but a great option for that quick turn and burn where you know your deal has enough skin in it and you can recapture all your capital and make a good tidy profit on it.   Keith Weinhold  26:53   We're talking about basically fixer upper loans here with Chaley Ridge, the president of ridge lending group, yes, these are jalopies that rarely qualify for traditional bank financing. And oftentimes, when I think about these fix and flip loans, I'm thinking that often there is interest only flexibility with regard to those higher interest rates that you need to pay. And I think of it as, you know, a shorter term loan that you've got during your renovation period, oftentimes 12 to 18 months. Does that sound about right?   Caeli Ridge  27:24   Yeah, 6,18, even 24 months. And to your point, yes, all of these are going to be interest only. And one of the cool things is about these loans is, is that, if there's enough room in the deal, right, based on what you need to borrow and what we think the ARV is expected to be, you don't even actually have to be making those interest payments. You can build it into the final payout when we go to refinance you out of this short term loan, or you simply sell the property and pay off that loan. So for example, let's say that your interest only payment is $1,000 a month, okay? And the value of the property is going to be $200,000 and you only took 120 okay, we're going to be well within that 75% ARV. You can build in that $1,000 say, for 12 months, there's $12,000 and just add it to the outstanding balance that you started by owing, and not have to be making those payments on an ongoing basis. It's not rented, right? So it might be nice to be able to factor that in to the actual payoff when you go to refinance that if it's a fix and hold versus go to sell it on a fix and flip.   Keith Weinhold  28:31   Now, long term, we know that the big gains for real estate investors really come from that leveraged appreciation getting that loan. But sometimes there are situations where we might want to act as a cash buyer. And that brings up this fourth of four loan types that I brought up, the bridge loan, short term loans that can temporarily finance a property purchase while you're waiting for a longer term loan to come through. The bridge loan, so I think of it as a pretty speedy loan, if you sort of want to act like you're an all cash buyer.   Caeli Ridge  29:04   Yeah, I like this, and in many ways it's similar to a fix and flip interest only. Obviously the term is going to be shorter, six months, 12 months, up to 24 months, and based on largely relationship, the bridge loan for the purpose that you described, really comes into play for an investor that we know and we're comfortable with, we can fund those inside a week, for somebody that we've done several of these loans for. So for those that need that really quick turn, once you've established yourself as a seasoned, experienced investor in that space, those are pretty slick and easy to get through.   Keith Weinhold  29:39   Why would someone use a bridge loan, rather than a fix and flip loan.   Caeli Ridge  29:43   So if they're in a very competitive market, that might be another option, because those are going to be faster. The bridge loan is going to be faster where they need to say that they're an all cash buyer and they only need seven days to close, or whatever it is. It depends on the municipality in the state. But what if you're at the courthouse steps? And you need cash quickly. Sometimes it needs to be immediate. So that might not be applicable in this case, but if you put the bid in, and you win the bid, and you've got, you know, three days to perform, usually we can get those done. So it's circumstantial. Those would be two variables or two scenarios that that would apply to   Keith Weinhold  30:17   the bridge loan gives you the advantage of speed, but that speed can come at a cost.   Caeli Ridge  30:22   Oh yeah, yeah, you're going to be paying probably three points, maybe four points, and it's short term interest, 13, 14%   Keith Weinhold  30:30   so with these four loan types that we've discussed, conventional DSCR, fix and flip and bridge loans, you can kind of see that there is a loan for most every investment scenario, and there's no reason to rely on only one type, a flipper. Might start with a short term fix and flip loan or a bridge loan and then later refinance to a DSCR or a conventional loan. So consider mixing and matching based on your needs. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with Ridge leninger, President Taylor Ridge, more when we come back, including steps for more advanced investors, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold   Keith Weinhold  31:06   mid south homebuyers with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your return on investment as their North Star. It's no wonder smart investors line up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone, headquartered in Memphis, with their globally attractive cash flows, mid south has an A plus rating with a better business bureau and 4000 houses renovated. There is zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate with an industry leading three and a half year average renter term. Every home they offer you will have brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter in an astounding price range, 100 to 150k GET TO KNOW Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com    Keith Weinhold  32:08   you know, most people think they're playing it safe with their liquid money, but they're actually losing savings accounts and bonds. Don't keep up when true inflation eats six or 7% of your wealth. Every single year I invest my liquidity with FFI freedom family investments in their flagship program. Why fixed 10 to 12% returns have been predictable and paid quarterly. There's real world security backed by needs based real estate like affordable housing, Senior Living and health care. Ask about the freedom flagship program when you speak to a freedom coach there, and that's just one part of their family of products, they've got workshops, webinars and seminars designed to educate you before you invest, start with as little as 25k and finally, get your money working as hard as you do. Get started at Freedom family investments.com/gre or GRE, or send a text now it's 1-937-795-8989, yep, text their freedom coach, directly again. 1-937-795-8989,   Keith Weinhold  33:19   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage, start your pre qual and even chat with President chailey Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lending group.com that's Ridge lending group.com   Blair Singer  33:53   this is Rich Dad, sales advisor, Blair singer. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold. And above all, don't quit your Daydream.    Keith Weinhold  34:09   Welcome back to get rich education chili when we go beyond this beginner stage that we've been discussing, how about for an investor just trying to scale to 10 doors worth of one to four unit properties. Now, are there any strategies there or more of a loan order that you would recommend in getting up to your first 10 you know   Caeli Ridge  34:29   I think the strategy starts with calling your lender, ideally Ridge lending group, and having that deep strategy call that, that discovery call, so that we can really understand and plant some seeds that say, Okay, Mr. Jones, these are your qualifications today. This is where you want to be in a year or 10 years. These are the steps that are going to be important that we are mindful of and we take to accomplish and reach those milestones. It's really important to have that baseline understanding of what is your debt to income ratio on day one, what are your assets? Sets. What is your credit? Where do you want to be in a year or 10 years? Right? Do you want 10 properties in a year's time? It's going to be a very different conversation than if you're going to slow roll this and want to establish 10 purchases or 10 investment properties over 10 years. So identifying those details is going to be part one, and then next, in terms of order, I would say, largely the higher price point properties, typically, I would say, put those in one through six. And the reason that I'm saying that is is that the underwriting guidelines under conventional financing, they will change based on how many finance properties you have. So of all of the inner working guidelines and things that go into securing a conventional mortgage loan, the three top most heavily weighted are going to be debt to income ratio, credit score and assets. Okay? And within each one of those, the marker or the qualification guideline changes as you evolve and acquire more property. So the higher up the ring you go, or the rung that you go to 10, the more restrictive the guidelines are going to be. So I would typically say, get the higher price point properties go into maybe one to four, one to six, if that's part of your strategy and your diversification of portfolio ownership. Then after you've established having two or three or four properties and that higher price point it as it gets harder to qualify, potentially, if your debt to income ratio is a little bit tight, you've got the smaller loan sizes that might be less impactful in debt to income ratio. All of this is very subjective to the individual's qualifications and needs, of course, but that might be one rule of thumb that I would take   Keith Weinhold  36:39   gosh, this This is absolute gold in helping you structure the architecture of a growing income property portfolio. And we're coming up on this Super Bowl, and whatever mortgage lender advertises for the Super Bowl or has some big, splashy campaign nationally, you know they are not the ones that are going to have conversations like this for you, they might be fine for buying a primary residence, but this is why you want to have a long term strategy and work with a lender that's aligned with you on exactly that sort of thing. And Chaley, is there a specific way in which one can avoid hitting the Fannie Freddie loan ceilings too early if you haven't already touched on it.    Caeli Ridge  37:22   Yeah, very good question. You know, I think that this is going to come down to a debt to income ratio conversation. It's easy enough to ensure that we contain assets and credit. Those are easier conversations. The debt to income ratio is the piece that's more complicated and can get away from an investor without them even knowing it. You don't know what you don't know, right? So I would say that debt to income ratio and making sure that your lender again, hopefully Ridge lending, because we know this like we know our own faces, making sure they know how to structure and provide feedback and consult on that schedule E, part of the beauty of real estate investing is the tax deductions. Right? Many people get into real estate investing, not for the cash flow, not even for the appreciation, but for that tax strategy, because they're high wage earners, or whatever it may be, and they're sick of paying x in taxes. So the debt to income ratio is key in scaling and making sure you can continue to qualify for those loans. The conversations that we have with our clients really go deep about where we can maximize our deductions to ensure that we get the tax benefit without precluding our qualification on a conventional underwriting basis in the DTI category.   Keith Weinhold  38:35   Now, during my growth as an investor, when I got above 10 doors, one gets above 20 doors. When one gets to 216 doors, I began where I needed to qualify more on a DSCR basis, where the lender is looking at the properties qualification, more so than me. So are there any other thoughts with regard to how one can set themselves up for success in really going big and well beyond 10 doors   Caeli Ridge  39:03   absolutely so once we've exhausted the Fannie Freddie, and I think one of the real value adds about Ridge is that we are not a one size fits all, and we are extremely holistic versus transactional. So having that first conversation and understanding what those goals are, so that we can pivot as we need to maximize the golden tickets, whether that be 10 to 20, right? If you're in a marriage or a partnership or whatever, and then setting up for the DSCR loans when the time comes, and taking advantage of those, there is no limit to how many DSCR loans we can get for one individual. We have yet to file an individual that we've had to say no, and we've done quite a few of the high, high acquisition investors, so I don't expect that to be an issue, but yeah, I think it's about planning, planting those seeds, creating roadmaps together and have those smart discovery conversations.   Keith Weinhold  39:50   Now, as you grow, one way you might diversify is to have perhaps at least a part of your portfolio in short term rentals. So what I. Comes to getting loans for sort of Airbnb or VRBO type properties. What does one look for there? How much does the landscape change versus the longer term rentals that we've mostly been talking about here?    Caeli Ridge  40:10   Yeah, I think that the differences are going to be about purchase versus refinance. If we're just talking about purchases, let's kind of try to keep it in one lane. If we're talking about purchasing a short term rental, you may be limited on leverage. You might lose a little bit of leverage, 5% let's say you could get to 75% and maybe on a short term they're going to back it off to 70% LTV, so there may be reduction in that loan to value. And the way in which we're going to quantify the income is absolutely important to share with your listeners on a purchase transaction, we have access to things like an appraisal. An appraisal is going to give us some median rental income, whether it be long term or short term, that we will use to offset a new mortgage payment if that's needed for the individual's debt to income ratio qualification. Now, if they don't need the rental income to qualify, then it's a non issue. But if they do, like most of us, need that rental income to absorb this new mortgage payment that we are securing for them, how that's going to quantify is important. So if it's not in a short term rental area, let's just say it's kind of off the beaten path, and there may not be enough data points to support the income that you need. It's important to know that up front versus way down the rabbit hole, when you paid for appraisals and you're all the way through the transaction and earnest money might be off the table if you had to cancel that kind of thing. So really important to understand the numbers in advance, I would say, when we talk about short term rentals and how the income is going to be quantified from an underwriting perspective,   Keith Weinhold  41:43   why does a borrower often need to make a higher down payment on a short term rental than they do a long term rental?   Caeli Ridge  41:49    You know, I think that in secondary markets, as we talk about mortgage backed securities and things like that, it's looked at as a higher risk. A short term rental is going to be a higher risk than just the stable long term, long burn tenant is going to be there and they've got their lease for a year, two years or whatever, at a time, the short term rental is more volatile and it's seasonal. It can be I mean, there's all those different factors, so higher risk means more skin in the game for the investor.   Keith Weinhold  42:13   That makes a lot of sense. Does that higher risk also translate into a higher mortgage rate for short term rentals than long term rentals?   Caeli Ridge  42:18    Fannie Freddie versus DSCR The answer is no. On the Fannie Freddie side, the interest rate's not going to change on a DSCR loan. Yes, it can be slightly higher, usually about about a quarter of a percentage point on a short term versus a long term.   Keith Weinhold  42:33   Now, are there any particular markets that lenders want to avoid with short term rental loans?   Caeli Ridge  42:39   No, as long as the property is habitable, and all the other metrics fit Qualifications and Credit and assets and all that stuff. No, there isn't a market that we're going to have any issues with now. We do get the notifications for natural disaster areas, and as that relates to the appraisal and things like that, if it's in a natural disaster area or zone, we may have to hold funding until after the disaster is over, and then we can go and take more pictures and make sure it's still standing and there's no major issues. But otherwise, aside from that, as long as it's habitable, no, there is no market restriction.   Keith Weinhold  43:12   Yes, with that variability of income for short term rentals, you can understand how a lender would be more careful in making a loan, and would want you, the borrower, to put more skin in the game for a short term rental. Well, Caeli, overall, what should an investor do in the next 24 hours to make themselves more lendable before contacting someone like you?   Caeli Ridge  43:36   I would say the answer is sticky, but call rich lending group. That's how you're going to make yourself more lendable. And the reason that I can say that is is that everybody's qualifications and needs and goals are inherently different. So calling someone that understands this landscape and can navigate the battleship in the creek like I like to say, that's the visual aid for those of you that need the visual is the first key. And with that conversation, we're going to be able to identify for you specifically what you would need to do to become more lendable. And it may be nothing   Keith Weinhold  44:07   well over there, Chaley, you're growing. You do loans in almost all 50 states. The GRE podcast has more than 5.8 million listener downloads, and you have helped countless GRE listeners acquire smart investor loans for fully a decade now. Just amazing. So talk to us about all of the loan types that you offer investors there at ridge.   Caeli Ridge  44:30   My gosh. Okay, so I think one of the real value adds for us is that we have such a diverse menu of loan products. We touched on a few of them already. So we've got the conventional Fannie Mae Freddie, Mac stuff. We've got our DSCR loans. We have bank statement loans, asset depletion loans. I can touch on those if you want. Keith, we have our short term bridge fix and flip. We have our All In One my favorite, first lien, HELOC we have second lien HELOCs. We have commercial loan products, and commercial can apply to residential and commercial property. A cross collateralization, commercial for residential properties. That just means, if you're putting 10 single families into one blanket loan, that would be cross collateralization, or if you're buying a storage unit that's straight commercial, and probably even more than that, ground up construction, there's really not a limit to the loan products that we offer, specifically for investors. The only thing we don't have, I would say in our arsenal is bare land loans. Those are hard to come by   Keith Weinhold  45:24   It sounds like you recommend a call in order to get some of that back and forth, to learn how you can best help that investor. But tell us about all the ways that someone   Caeli Ridge  45:32   can get a hold of you. Yes, there's a few ways. Of course, our website, ridgeline group.com, you can call us toll free at 855-747434385, 747-434-3855, 74, Ridge. Or feel free to email us info at Ridge lending group.com   Keith Weinhold  45:49   and you might get lucky. Hey, spin the wheel. Chaele does get on the phone and talk to individual investors herself too. So Chaley, it's been valuable as always to cover all these different loan types for beginners, and then what one does when they advance beyond that. It's been great having you back on the show.    Caeli Ridge  46:09   Thank you, Keith. I appreciate you.   Keith Weinhold  46:16   Oh yeah, a lot to learn from Chaley today. You've got mortgage rates three quarters to 1% lower than they were a year ago. At this time, in fact, last month, they ticked below 6% for the first time in years, and their lowest level in over three years. But when you introduce geopolitical uncertainty, well, that tends to make rates tick up again. Now, just what does happen when you have a lower overall rate trend like we have? Well, in this cycle, it's already spurred an increase in housing sales volume. It surged to 4.3 5 million in the latest reporting month, and that is the hottest annualized pace in nearly three years. Some of the same people who said, wait until rates fall, they're about to realize that prices didn't wait. Demand comes back fast. Inventory doesn't if mortgage rates take another leg lower, we could see quite a refinance wave in balanced markets or in supply constrained markets, bidding wars could follow. Now I've shared with you before that I totally do not predict interest rates. I don't know if anyone should. It is a great way to be fantastically wrong and supremely waste a lot of people's time. Instead, I think it's more efficacious for you to be able to interpret the signs that can trigger a further rate drop. Those signs are a weak jobs report that tends to bring lower rates because the labor market needs the help. So does softening wage growth, GDP below expectations, inflation continuing to cool, or a pickup in US Treasury demand. These are all signs that can lead to even lower rates. In fact, right now, with already lower rates and higher wages, real estate is more affordable than it's been in about three years, but overall, longer term, yeah, income properties still feel somewhat less affordable. It's less affordable than it was in pre pandemic times. That's for real for US investors, though, affordability is less about the price of the property, it's about whether the property pays for itself and grows your net worth while inflation does the heavy lifting for you, that's why it still works for us as investors. Higher prices don't kill investors inaction during inflation does you're not so much buying a say, 350k property. You're controlling it with 70k while your tenant and inflation do the rest. We don't rely on hope or appreciation. We start with inflation, tax benefits and debt pay down, and then appreciation typically happens too. A lot of times, the question for us goes beyond whether or not a property is affordable. The question is whether owning an investment property is better than inflation compounding against us, which is an investor mindset for this era, Ridge landing gear. President Chaley Ridge is a regular guest here because the mortgage space is so dynamic and things change a lot. For that reason, we expect to have her with us every few months this year, I'll see you next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  50:01   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively   Keith Weinhold  50:30   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, getricheducation.com   

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair Emeritus of Monetary Policy and the founder of the Monetary Policy Program at Mercatus. Scott returns to the show, to discuss his life post Mercatus, nominal GDP counterfactuals of the pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis, the role of QE in inflation, the fears about Fed independence, and much more. Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links. Recorded on January 15th, 2025 Subscribe to David's Substack: Macroeconomic Policy Nexus Follow David Beckworth on X: @DavidBeckworth Follow the show on X: @Macro_Musings Check out our Macro Musings merch! Subscribe to David's new BTS YouTube Channel  Timestamps 00:00:00 - Intro 00:01:34 - Scott's Life Post Mercatus 00:05:28 - Nominal GDP Targeting 00:19:53 - Quantitative Easing 00:38:28 - Fed Framework Review 00:42:36 - Fed Independence 01:04:33 - Outro

Could returning to the gold standard fix inflation? Nick Pell explains why this shiny solution might not be all it's cracked up to be on Skeptical Sunday.Welcome to Skeptical Sunday, a special edition of The Jordan Harbinger Show where Jordan and a guest break down a topic that you may have never thought about, open things up, and debunk common misconceptions. This time around, we're joined by writer and researcher Nick Pell!Full show notes and resources can be found here: jordanharbinger.com/1279On This Week's Skeptical Sunday:The gold standard wasn't some ancient monetary relic — it only emerged in 1821 when Britain pegged the pound to gold, with most industrialized nations hopping on board by the 1890s. It was abandoned during World War I because governments simply couldn't fund the war while maintaining gold convertibility.Today's global economy is roughly $115 trillion, while all the gold ever mined is worth about $28.5 trillion — roughly a quarter of global GDP. This massive mismatch means returning to gold would require either revaluing it to astronomical prices or causing catastrophic deflation.The appeal of the gold standard isn't really about the metal itself — it's about trust. People are drawn to money that doesn't depend on government promises or political whims. Gold represents certainty in an uncertain world.A return to gold would likely benefit net exporters like China while punishing net importers like the United States. Trade imbalances would transform into gold hoarding, creating constant liquidity crises that global commerce simply couldn't survive.The desire for "sound money" isn't misguided — it's the solution that's flawed. Better monetary policy rules, multi-asset pegs, or systems like Switzerland's debt-repayment requirements could provide the discipline people crave without nuking the world economy.Connect with Jordan on Twitter, Instagram, and YouTube. If you have something you'd like us to tackle here on Skeptical Sunday, drop Jordan a line at jordan@jordanharbinger.com and let him know!And if you're still game to support us, please leave a review here — even one sentence helps! Sign up for Six-Minute Networking — our free networking and relationship development mini course — at jordanharbinger.com/course!Subscribe to our once-a-week Wee Bit Wiser newsletter today and start filling your Wednesdays with wisdom!Do you even Reddit, bro? Join us at r/JordanHarbinger!This Episode Is Brought To You By Our Fine Sponsors: Hiya: 50% off first order: hiyahealth.com/jordanThe Perfect Jean: 15% off first order: theperfectjean.nyc, code JORDAN15Quiltmind: Email jordanaudience@quiltmind.com to get started or visit quiltmind.com for more infoHomes.com: Find your home: homes.comSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In an increasingly digital world, hardly anyone relies on cash. $100 bills are essentially absent from global commerce. So how come the US Federal Reserve printed 752 million and 867.2 million of them last year? In this episode, bestselling investigative journalist and author Oliver Bullough joins us to explore how, in the criminal world, cash is still king. Drawing on his new book, Everybody Loves Our Dollars, he explores  the hidden financial systems that allow drug cartels, kleptocrats, tax evaders, terrorists, and traffickers to move and protect their wealth with astonishing ease. Despite decades of legislation, enforcement, and international cooperation, an estimated 2-5% of global GDP is still laundered every year. Why has every attempt to stop it failed? In conversation with host Atossa Araxia Abrahamian, Bullough sheds light on what's going on beneath the surface, and what needs urgent change.  --- If you'd like to become a Member and get access to all our full conversations, plus all of our Members-only content, just visit intelligencesquared.com/membership to find out more. For £4.99 per month you'll also receive: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared episodes, wherever you get your podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series - 15% discount on livestreams and in-person tickets for all Intelligence Squared events  ...  Or Subscribe on Apple for £4.99: - Full-length and ad-free Intelligence Squared podcasts - Bonus Intelligence Squared podcasts, curated feeds and members exclusive series … Already a subscriber? Thank you for supporting our mission to foster honest debate and compelling conversations! Visit intelligencesquared.com to explore all your benefits including ad-free podcasts, exclusive bonus content and early access. … Subscribe to our newsletter here to hear about our latest events, discounts and much more. https://www.intelligencesquared.com/newsletter-signup/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We kick off FOLLOW UP by checking in on Elon Musk's personal dumpster fire, where the EU is investigating Grok for deepfake slop while Tesla's “unsupervised” robotaxis turned out to be supervised by literal chase cars — shocker. At least some of you are getting Siri settlement crumbs in your bank accounts, though you could probably double it betting against Musk's worthless promises on Polymarket.Transitioning to IN THE NEWS, Tesla is killing off the Model S and X to build robots while sales crater, proving that mixing hard-right politics with EV sales is a brilliant move for the balance sheet. Meanwhile, the corporate bloodbath continues with massive layoffs at Ubisoft, Vimeo (courtesy of the Bending Spoons buzzsaw), and Amazon, because “removing bureaucracy” is apparently HR-speak for 16,000 families losing their livelihoods. If that's not enough, Google is settling yet another privacy suit for $135 million, the EU is threatening to weaponize its tech sovereignty against the US, and the Trump administration wants Gemini to write federal regulations—because if there's one thing we want drafting airline safety rules, it's a hallucinating chatbot.Still IN THE NEWS, Waymo is under federal investigation for passing school buses and hitting children, while South Korea's new AI laws manage to please absolutely no one. Record labels are suing Anna's Archive for a cool $13 trillion—roughly three times the GDP of India—and the Winklevoss twins have finally admitted that NFTs are dead by shuttering Nifty Gateway.We pivot to MEDIA CANDY, where the Patriots and Seahawks are heading to Super Bowl 60, and the Winter Olympics are descending on Milan. We're doing the math on the Starfleet Academy timeline, celebrating the return of Ted Lasso and Shrinking, and trying to decide if Henry Cavill is the second coming of Timothy Dalton in the Highlander reboot. Plus, Jessica Jones is back in the Daredevil: Born Again trailer, and Colin Farrell's Sugar is returning to explain that wild noir twist we all totally saw coming.In APPS & DOODADS, the TikTok Armageddon is upon us as the new US owners break the app and drive everyone to UpScrolled, while Native Instruments enters insolvency, leaving our music-making dreams in restructuring limbo. Apple is dropping AirTag 2 with precision finding for your watch, which is great for finding the keys you lost while doom-scrolling.We wrap up with THE DARK SIDE WITH DAVE, featuring the new Muppets trailer and Steve Whitmire's deep thoughts on the state of the felt, plus a look at the artisans in Disneyland Handcrafted. Finally, Looney Tunes finds a new home on Turner Classic Movies, proving that the classics never die—they just move to a cable channel your parents actually watch. Dave finally learns about the Insta360 camera, a countertop dishwasher but no Animal Crackers, and a guide to gas masks and googles... for no particular reason.Sponsors:DeleteMe - Get 20% off your DeleteMe plan when you go to JoinDeleteMe.com/GOG and use promo code GOG at checkout.SquareSpace - go to squarespace.com/GRUMPY for a free trial. And when you're ready to launch, use code GRUMPY to save 10% off your first purchase of a website or domain.Private Internet Access - Go to GOG.Show/vpn and sign up today. For a limited time only, you can get OUR favorite VPN for as little as $2.03 a month.SetApp - With a single monthly subscription you get 240+ apps for your Mac. Go to SetApp and get started today!!!1Password - Get a great deal on the only password manager recommended by Grumpy Old Geeks! gog.show/1passwordShow notes at https://gog.show/731Watch the episode at https://youtu.be/B54je_oJWjMFOLLOW UPThe EU is investigating Grok and X over potentially illegal deepfakesPeople on Polymarket Are Making a Fortune by Betting Against Elon Musk's Famously Worthless PromisesElon Musk Made Tesla Fans Think Unsupervised Robotaxis Had Arrived. They Can't Find ThemTesla Quietly Pauses Its “Unsupervised” Robotaxi Rides as Reality Sets InApple Siri settlement payments hitting bank accounts. What to know.IN THE NEWSTesla bet big on Elon Musk. His politics continue to haunt it.With Tesla Revenue and Profits Down, Elon Musk Plays Up SafetyTesla Kills Models S and XUbisoft proposes even more layoffs after last week's studio closures and game cancellationsVimeo lays off most of its staff just months after being bought by private equity firmAmazon Laying Off 16,000 as It Increases ‘Ownership' and Removes ‘Bureaucracy'Report Says the E.U. Is Gearing Up to Weaponize Europe's Tech Industry Against the U.S.Google will pay $135 million to settle illegal data collection lawsuitGDPR Enforcement TrackerNTSB will investigate why Waymo's robotaxis are illegally passing school busesWaymo robotaxi hits a child near an elementary school in Santa MonicaVideo shows Waymo vehicle slam into parked cars in Echo ParkTrump admin reportedly plans to use AI to write federal regulationsSouth Korea's ‘world-first' AI laws face pushback amid bid to become leading tech powerSpotify and Big 3 Record Labels Sue Anna's Archive for $13 Trillion (!) Alleging TheftAmazon converting some Fresh supermarkets, Go stores to Whole Foods locationsSEC agrees to dismiss case over crypto lending by Winklevoss' GeminiWinklevoss Twins Shut Down NFT Marketplace in Another Sign Crypto Art Is DeadMEDIA CANDYPlur1busShrinkingA Knight of the Seven KingdomsStealHow to watch the 2026 Super Bowl: Patriots vs. Seahawks channel, where to stream and moreWinter Olympics: How to watch, schedule of events, and everything else you need to know about the 2026 Milano Cortina gamesWait, So When Is 'Starfleet Academy' Set, Anyway?The First ‘Daredevil: Born Again' Season 2 Trailer Brings Back Jessica JonesMarvel Television's Daredevil: Born Again Season 2 | Teaser TrailerTed Lasso Gets Kicked Back to Apple TVThere Can Only Be One First Look at the ‘Highlander' RebootColin Farrell's Detective Show ‘Sugar' Will Finally Have to Address that Wild Twist This SummerAPPS & DOODADSTikTok Is Now Collecting Even More Data About Its Users. Here Are the 3 Biggest ChangesTikTok users freak out over app's 'immigration status' collection — here's what it meansTikTok's New US Owners Are Off to a Very Rocky StartTikTok Data Center Outage Triggers Trust Crisis for New US OwnersYes, TikTok is still broken for many peopleSocial network UpScrolled sees surge in downloads following TikTok's US takeoverNative Instruments enters into insolvency proceedings, leaving its future uncertainWispr FlowAirTag 2: Three tidbits you might have missedTHE DARK SIDE WITH DAVEDave BittnerThe CyberWireHacking HumansCaveatControl LoopOnly Malware in the BuildingThe Muppet Show | Official Trailer | Disney+Steve Whitmire, former Kermit the Frog performer, has written a long, thoughtful piece about the current stae of the Muppets.Disneyland Handcrafted‘Looney Tunes' Has Found a New Home: Turner Classic MoviesThe Dark Side of Scooby DooA Disturbing (Yet Convincing) Theory Reveals There Were Never Any "Monsters" In Scooby DooCartoon Conspiracy Theory | Scooby Doo and The Gang Are Draft Dodgers?!Producing A Multi-Person Interview With An Insta360 CameraA listener on Mastodon pointed out that The Verge had a story on countertop dishwashersA Demonstrator's Guide to Gas Masks and GogglesEmma RepairsSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

My guest today is Russell Napier, an independent financial market strategist, financial historian, author of The Solid Ground investment report, and founder of the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes. In today's episode, Russell explains why investors are asking the wrong questions at a critical turning point in financial history. He how financial repression, shifting monetary regimes, and political priorities are reshaping capital markets. To close, he explains the dangers of yield chasing, why technology won't defeat inflation, and why gold may be signaling what comes next. (0:00) Starts (3:14) Regime change & parallels to post-World War II Europe (8:06) The search for yield is dangerous (17:38) The disconnect between GDP growth and equity returns (23:14) The impact of inflation & deflation on equity valuations (25:56) Technology doesn't defeat inflation (30:20) Monetary system changes, gold prices, and American exceptionalism (37:50) Extrapolation is the opiate of the people (48:26) Book recommendations ----- Follow Meb on X, LinkedIn and YouTube For detailed show notes, click here To learn more about our funds and follow us, subscribe to our mailing list or visit us at cambriainvestments.com ----- Follow The Idea Farm: X | LinkedIn | Instagram | TikTok ----- Interested in sponsoring the show? Email us at Feedback@TheMebFaberShow.com ----- Past guests include Ed Thorp, Richard Thaler, Jeremy Grantham, Joel Greenblatt, Campbell Harvey, Ivy Zelman, Kathryn Kaminski, Jason Calacanis, Whitney Baker, Aswath Damodaran, Howard Marks, Tom Barton, and many more.  ----- Meb's invested in some awesome startups that have passed along discounts to our listeners. Check them out here!  ----- Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jean-Baptiste Wautier is here to talk growing global debt and the impact on the economy. He draws on decades of private-equity and macro experience to discuss accelerating global change, arguing that rising debt, AI, and political polarization are reshaping the economic and geopolitical order. We discuss Europe's recent market strength, China as an unavoidable, though risky, investment given its scale and AI ambitions, and gold and crypto as hedges rather than true currency alternatives. He also warms that global debt dynamics will force restructuring in places like Japan and parts of Europe, and concludes that AI is likely transformative but slower and more socially disruptive than markets assume, ultimately requiring a rethink of productivity, employment, and even how economic progress is measured. We discuss... Jean-Baptiste Wautier argued that today's environment reflects an acceleration of long-term forces—debt accumulation, AI as a fourth industrial revolution, and rising political polarization—rather than a completely unprecedented moment. He suggested populism can be reversed without extreme disruption if governments deliver tangible economic fixes, citing Italy as an example of pragmatic reform restoring democratic confidence. Wautier emphasized that middle-class affordability, youth opportunity, and fiscal credibility are the core issues driving political instability in Western democracies. He criticized the lack of democratic oversight of central banks, arguing monetary policy has become too consequential to remain entirely insulated from public accountability. He believes there is no painless solution to global debt problems, with Europe facing unavoidable austerity while the U.S. may temporarily "get away with it" due to dollar dominance and capital inflows. Europe's recent market outperformance was described as a short-term valuation and diversification blip rather than a reflection of improving fundamentals. Wautier argued the dollar has no credible fiat challenger, reinforcing its dominance despite past U.S. policy mistakes. Gold and cryptocurrencies were discussed primarily as hedges against dollar risk rather than true replacements for the global reserve system. Bitcoin was criticized as too volatile to function as a reserve or transactional currency, regardless of its popularity as a speculative store of value. Stablecoins were viewed as a strategic U.S. response to crypto, potentially extending dollar dominance into digital finance. Demographic decline across developed economies was identified as a structural constraint that traditional growth models cannot easily resolve. Wautier argued AI adoption is moving faster than societies can adapt, limiting near-term productivity gains while increasing long-term disruption. AI's ultimate impact will be profound but slow, likely forcing a reassessment of GDP and other traditional measures of economic progress. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/growing-global-debt-jean-baptiste-wautier-786 

Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendar ! Out Print the Fed with 1% per week: https://remnantfinance.com/optionsEmail us at info@remnantfinance.com !Visit https://remnantfinance.com for more informationFOLLOW REMNANT FINANCEYoutube: @RemnantFinance (https://www.youtube.com/@RemnantFinance )Facebook: @remnantfinance (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560694316588 )Twitter: @remnantfinance (https://x.com/remnantfinance )TikTok: @RemnantFinanceDon't forget to hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBEThis episode examines Jordi Visser's recent analysis on what AI means for the labor market, why this isn't like previous technological disruptions, and how to position yourself financially when the old rules no longer apply.We talk through the psychological impact on anyone raised in the meritocracy, why competing against entities that never sleep and improve every six months is fundamentally different than competing against other humans, and what it actually looks like to build a two-year financial runway.Chapters: 00:00 – Opening segment01:35 – Jordi Visser article introduction 06:45 – The danger of refusing to update with new information 09:15 – I built an arbitrage bot in 12 minutes with zero coding knowledge 14:45 – Q3 2025: GDP up, profits up, employment down 16:30 – "Your labor is no longer required for our prosperity" 19:55 – The original 10,000-year bargain between labor and capital 23:10 – Today's graduates competing against entities 31:45 – Why whole life insurance shines brighter in this environment 40:15 – Uber drivers protesting robo-taxis ten years after disrupting taxis 52:30 – Building your runway 58:00 – Closing thoughts and how to position your assetsKey Takeaways:This isn't the Industrial Revolution 2.0. Previous disruptions eliminated jobs but created surplus that funded new roles. AI breaks that chain—digital employees don't need wages, don't become consumers, and improve exponentially every six months.The math changed. A college degree once guaranteed middle-class stability. Now it puts you in direct competition with entities that work 24/7, remember everything, and have no upper bound on capability.Own assets or get left behind. When capital no longer depends on labor, asset prices can rise indefinitely while wages stagnate. Position yourself on the side of the equation that benefits.Build your runway now. Hans tracks daily burn rate and is targeting two years of expenses in emergency reserves. Calculate yours: monthly expenses ÷ 30 = daily burn. Emergency fund ÷ daily burn = runway in days.Protect, save, grow still applies—maybe more than ever. Guaranteed growth vehicles, physical precious metals, crypto, rental properties, and options trading all have a place in a portfolio built for uncertainty.The social contract between labor and capital has held for 10,000 years: work generates value, value generates wages, wages generate surplus. Q3 2025 may have broken that contract permanently. GDP grew 4.3%, corporate profits hit record highs—and job growth collapsed to near zero. For the first time in history, the economy is thriving without creating jobs.

With regime change brewing in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, and the Russian war of attrition still marching on, Cold War déjà vu shapes our understanding of what happens when regimes do fall and offers a hopeful conclusion. Former Soviet states that have joined the EU have experienced an average tenfold increase in GDP since 1990, […]

With regime change brewing in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran, and the Russian war of attrition still marching on, Cold War déjà vu shapes our understanding of what happens when regimes do fall and offers a hopeful conclusion. Former Soviet states that have joined the EU have experienced an average tenfold increase in GDP since 1990, while Russia and its non-EU neighbors have grown only fourfold. Like the stark contrast of the Berlin Wall, if Ukraine is free to continue to prosper economically, people in Russia's border regions will begin to work out that the problem isn't NATO, the problem isn't ideology, the problem is the failure of the system in Russia to deliver. And in addition to the huge costs of the war already waged, that's something Putin cannot afford. So, will Putin try to wait it out? What choices does he have to avoid failure? We asked an investment banker for his theory and the numbers are enlightening…Michael Tory is a co-founder and Chairman of the financial advisory firm Ondra Partners. Tory is also an outspoken advocate for and supports several NGO efforts in Ukraine. Previously, he served as head of UK investment banking for Lehman Brothers Inc. and has been a Senior UK investment banker of Lehman Brothers Holdings. Michael previously served as Morgan Stanley's head of investment banking in the UK and worked in their New York office for over a decade. Tory is also principal of Turning the Page, which develops and publishes ideas for rebuilding the UK's domestic capital markets and savings systems.Read the transcript here.Subscribe to our Substack here.

Healthcare innovator Neal Shah joins me to unpack how artificial intelligence is being used against patients—and how it can be used to fight back.Most conversations about AI in healthcare focus on efficiency, cost savings, or shiny tools. This episode goes deeper. Neal Shah and I examine how insurers have quietly weaponized AI to deny care at scale—and why patients are losing not because they're wrong, but because the system is asymmetrically stacked against them.Neal shares how caregiving for his grandfather with dementia and his wife through years of cancer exposed the realities of denial letters, administrative friction, and time-based exhaustion. We explore how claim denials jumped from 1.2% to nearly 20% nationwide, why most patients never appeal, and how insurers exploit the fact that appeals take hours while denials take seconds.From there, we dig into how AI—trained on successful appeals, billing codes, medical research, and insurer coverage policies—can flip that imbalance. Not by gaming the system, but by restoring access to evidence, speed, and leverage for people who don't have legal teams or financial backstops.The conversation widens into elder care, end-of-life costs, administrative bloat, and why healthcare outcomes don't justify 20% of U.S. GDP. This isn't an anti-technology episode. It's a clear-eyed look at incentives, power, and how tools can either centralize control—or return it to individuals.The lesson isn't blind optimism about AI. It's discernment: knowing where technology helps, where regulation lags, and how ordinary people can protect themselves inside systems that weren't designed for fairness.TL;DR* Insurers now programmatically deny ~20% of claims—up from 1.2% fifteen years ago* 99% of denied patients never appeal, despite high reversal rates* Of those who appeal, ~40% win; with AI support, success jumps to ~73%* Most denials stem from billing errors or weak documentation—not medical necessity* State insurance regulators provide external review boards most patients don't know exist* AI can restore speed and evidence access—but doesn't fix broken incentives alone* Healthcare costs are driven by administrative bloat, not clinical care* Elder care is optimized for real estate returns, not human outcomes* The real crisis isn't technology—it's confusion, exhaustion, and lack of agencyMemorable Lines* “A denial letter is the shadow of a gun.”* “Insurers deny care in seconds—patients are expected to respond in hours.”* “Most people lose not because they're wrong, but because they're tired.”* “AI didn't break healthcare—it just exposed where power already lived.”* “Care is relational, but the system is designed to prevent relationships.”GuestNeal Shah — Healthcare innovator, author, and caregiver advocateFounder of Counterforce Health and Carriya, focused on patient empowerment, insurance accountability, and improving elder care through technology and workforce redesign.

In this episode, Toby Mathis, Esq., sits down with 3,700+ unit operator Aaron Adams to discuss the six hottest real estate markets for 2026 and six markets to avoid. They cover the economic factors driving real estate growth, including GDP expansion, potential interest rate decreases, and tax bill impacts. Aaron shares his top picks: Kansas City (benefiting from Oracle's massive $28 billion Cerner acquisition), Idaho Falls (emerging nuclear technology hub), Charlotte (continued banking sector growth), the Winston-Salem triad area (affordability with five universities), and Indianapolis (steady lockstep growth in rents, wages, and prices). On the flip side, they discuss why to avoid Chicago (high property taxes, population decline), San Francisco (rent controls, tenant protections), Detroit (60% population loss, aging infrastructure), New York City (landlord-unfriendly policies), Los Angeles (high acquisition costs, poor cash flow), and Austin (overbuilt multifamily, high insurance and taxes). They also cover the strategy of investing in smaller cities within 30-40 miles of hot metros to capitalize on growth while maintaining affordability. Tune in for expert insights on where to invest for cash flow in 2026! Highlights/Topics: 00:00 - Introduction: 2026 Real Estate Market Outlook 01:42 - Economic Convergence: GDP, Interest Rates & Tax Impacts 12:30 - Hot Market #1: Kansas City (Oracle's $28B Acquisition) 17:02 - Hot Market #2: Idaho Falls & Markets to Avoid: San Francisco 23:08 - The 30-Mile Strategy: St. Joseph, MO Example 28:16 - Hot Markets #3-5: Charlotte, Winston-Salem & Indianapolis 35:31 - Asset Allocation Strategy: The 30-30-30-10 Model 40:39 - Markets to Avoid: LA, Austin, Chicago & Detroit Share this with business owners you know Resources:

Patriots, lock and load—@intheMatrixxx and @shadygrooove unleash full throttle on 1-29-26's explosive broadcast, diving deep into Season 8, Episode 019, “President Trump's 10th Cabinet Meeting; Trump Calls Out Black Pill Network,” where Trump's repost of a video spotlighting the Anti-Flynn network's misleading narratives crushes black-pill despair and validates years of calling out the hopium sellers. Jeff and Shannon break down the fiery online clash after Flynn labeled the Trump-shared video "fake," proving the truth hits hard against those peddling defeatism while Trump racks up massive victories in the 10th Cabinet Meeting—from skyrocketing GDP, border shutdowns, plunging gas prices, and healthcare cost slashes to the game-changing John Deere deal bringing excavator manufacturing back home to America thanks to smart tariffs. They spotlight RFK Jr.'s amazing progress pushing health reforms and the shocking "poison candy" intel from Casey DeSantis-led research exposing dangerous arsenic levels in popular brands, urging families to wake up to hidden threats in everyday products. No mainstream spin here—just raw, unfiltered analysis rejecting establishment lies and celebrating the unstoppable America First surge. The truth is learned, never told—the constitution is your weapon—tune in at noon-0-five Eastern LIVE to stand with Trump! MG Show: America First MAGA Podcast & Conservative Talk Show Launched in 2019 and now in Season 8, the MG Show is your go-to source for unfiltered truth on Trump policies, border security, economic nationalism, and exposing globalist psyops. Hosted by Jeffrey Pedersen (@InTheMatrixxx) and Shannon Townsend (@ShadyGrooove), it champions sovereignty, traditional values, and critiques of establishment politics. Tune in weekdays at 12pm ET / 9am PT for patriotic insights strengthening the Republic under President Trump's America First agenda. Hosts - Jeffrey Pedersen (@InTheMatrixxx): Expert in political analysis and exposing hidden agendas, with a focus on Trump's diplomatic wins and media bias. - Shannon Townsend (@ShadyGrooove): Delivers sharp insights on intelligence operations, Constitutional rights, and defenses of Trump's strategies against mainstream critiques. Where to Watch & Listen Catch live episodes or on-demand replays packed with MAGA victories like inflation drops, border awards, Trump pardons, and psyop exposures: - Live Streams: https://rumble.com/mgshow for premium America First content. - Radio: https://mgshow.link/redstate on Red State Talk Radio. - X Live: https://x.com/inthematrixxx for real-time pro-Trump discussions. - Podcasts: Search "MG Show" on PodBean, Apple Podcasts, Pandora, and Amazon Music. - YouTube: Full episodes at https://youtube.com/c/inthematrixxx and https://www.youtube.com/c/TruthForFreedom. Follow for daily pro-Trump alerts: - X: @InTheMatrixxx (https://x.com/inthematrixxx) and @ShadyGrooove (https://x.com/shadygrooove). Support the MG Show Fuel the MAGA movement against establishment lies: - Donate: https://mg.show/support or contribute at https://givesendgo.com/helpmgshow. - Merch: https://merch.mg.show for official gear. - MyPillow Special: Use code MGSHOW at https://mypillow.com/mgshow. - Crypto: https://mgshow.link/rumblewallet. All Links Everything MG Show Related: https://linktr.ee/mgshow. MG Show Anthem Get chills with the patriotic track: https://youtu.be/SyfI8_fnCAs

This week, we address a broad set of developments shaping the macro landscape: Japan's government bond strains, the weakening dollar, the state of the housing market, rising inflation risks, a fall in the consumer savings rate, and the key takeaways from the January FOMC press conference. We also revisit the latest GDP report, highlighting a notable anomaly - an outsized contribution from gold exports in the third quarter - that we argued was unlikely to persist. That view was promptly borne out. This morning's release of the Census Bureau's International Trade in Goods and Services for November showed a sharp decline in gold exports and a widening trade deficit. As in prior episodes, our outlook for the economy and equity markets remains firmly negative.

The Mahindra Group is an Indian multinational conglomerate that operates across more than 20 industries and covers roughly 70% of India's GDP. It has a presence in aerospace, agriculture, defence, IT services and real estate. CEO Anish Shah is the first non-family member to serve as group CEO since the company's inception in 1945. In this wide-ranging conversation, Shah sits down with David Rubenstein to discuss Mahindra's evolution, India's economic trajectory, geopolitics and Shah's leadership journey. He's on this week's episode of "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer to Peer Conversations." This interview was recorded September 2 in New York.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Raheem Madjavi from Knightsbridge FX joins Glen Sutherland to unpack what's driving the Canadian dollar vs. U.S. dollar and what Canadians should watch in 2026. They discuss key macro factors that move currency markets—interest rate differentials, jobs/GDP, oil and commodities, and trade-policy uncertainty—plus why the USD/CAD rate can stay volatile when policy shifts and headlines change fast. Raheem shares practical scenarios for how the loonie could strengthen modestly if U.S. rates come down, and why Canada's outlook also depends on broader economic resilience and trade outcomes. They also get tactical for Canadians investing in U.S. real estate: why bank FX spreads and wire mistakes can quietly cost hundreds (or thousands), and how to avoid getting “hosed” on exchange rates when moving large sums. Raheem explains how Knightsbridge works and walks through the common ways to move money cross-border—bill payment (CAD only), wire transfers (fast, often same/next day), and debit/credit between accounts (slower but convenient)—including when each method makes sense. The big takeaway: don't obsess over perfectly timing the currency market; focus on the underlying investment, reduce friction and fees, and execute a clean transfer strategy when you're ready.

FAN MAIL--We would love YOUR feedback--Send us a Text MessageWhen the numbers are this strong—near four percent growth across three straight quarters, inflation easing, wages outpacing prices—it's tempting for Washington to claim credit and start tinkering. We make a different case: the smartest move is restraint. Let a running economy keep its stride by preserving the incentives that sparked it—lower taxes, lighter regulatory loads, abundant energy, and clear rules that reward productivity.We revisit the value of aiming high, channeling the moonshot mindset into a push for sustained growth. That ambition isn't about bluster; it's about setting policies that shift risk-reward in favor of investing, hiring, and building. From streamlined regulation to pro-energy approaches that cut costs across supply chains, we connect today's momentum to classic supply-side principles. The results show up in real wages beating inflation, record-breaking markets, lower gas prices, and even a narrowing deficit tied to trade policy shifts.Then we pressure-test the latest panic proposals: price controls on credit cards that would shrink access and hide costs, fifty-year mortgages that trap families in interest, new lifelines for the housing GSEs that risk replaying old crises, bans on investors that choke housing supply, and government equity stakes that politicize innovation. These aren't growth strategies—they're distractions that could derail compounding progress. Our message to policymakers is simple and urgent: don't blink. Hold the line, keep the rules clear, and let the economy run.If you're aligned with growth you can feel, share this episode with a friend, hit follow, and leave a quick review to help more listeners find the show.Key Points from the Episode:• opening quote framing growth-first priorities• aiming high on GDP growth and why it matters• evidence of momentum in growth, inflation, wages, and markets• critique of price controls, ultra-long mortgages, and housing meddling• reminder of supply-side foundations and proven results• call to hold steady: don't blink, let it runBe sure to check out our show page at teammojoacademy.com, where we have everything we discussed in this podcast as well as other great resourcesOther resources: Want to leave a review? Click here, and if we earned a five-star review from you **high five and knuckle bumps**, we appreciate it greatly!

Ai slop as usual for shownotes. If HKJ pays me some of those HKDs then I'll maybe make an effort. Until then, eat your robot kibble and enjoy the show! Australia Day tensions at home and political shocks abroad drive this packed episode of The Two Jacks. Joel (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack unpack the Liberal–National implosion, leadership manoeuvring, hate‑speech laws and neo‑Nazi “martyrs” springing from Australia Day rallies and a near‑catastrophic device in Perth. They then cross to the US for the fallout from the ICE killing of Minneapolis nurse Alex Pretty, Kristi Noem's precarious future, Trump's political instincts, and Mark Carney's Davos warning that we now live in a world with “no rules.” Along the way they dissect Brexit's economic hangover, EU over‑regulation, India's Republic Day contrast with Australia's low‑key national day, and finish with sport: Premier League title nerves, Australian Open heat controversies, bushfires, and a final detour through film censorship trivia in Ireland.00:00 – Theme and intro00:25 – Welcome back to The Two Jacks; Joel (Jack the Insider) in Australia and Hong Kong Jack set the scene for episode 142, recorded 27 January, the day after Australia Day.​Australian politics and the Liberal–National implosion00:40 – Coalition “no more”: the decoupling of Liberals and Nationals, and whether Anthony Albanese is the Stephen Bradbury of Australian politics or a quiet tactician.​01:10 – How Labor's racial vilification moves and 18C history boxed the opposition in; Susan Ley's failed emergency‑sitting gambit on antisemitism laws.​02:00 – Firearms law changes and new powers to ban hate groups like Hizb ut‑Tahrir and the National Socialist Network, and the role of ASIO referrals and ministerial discretion.​03:10 – Canavan's “slippery slope” fears about bans being turned on mainstream groups, and what that reveals about the Nationals' hunger for anti‑immigration rhetoric under pressure from One Nation and Pauline Hanson.​Centre‑right parties in a squeeze04:00 – The Nationals as the “five‑percenters” who pull the coalition's agenda with a small vote share; listener Bassman calls them the “un‑Nationals.”​05:00 – Global “tough times” for centre‑right parties: the pincer between moving to the centre (and leaving a vacuum for far‑right populists) or moving right and losing the middle.​05:40 – Hong Kong Jack's argument for broad churches: keeping everyone from sensible One Nation types to inner‑city wets under one tent, as Labor did with its far‑left “fruit loops” in the 1980s.​07:00 – Decline of small‑l liberals inside the Liberal Party, the thinning ranks of progressive conservatives, and the enduring “sprinkling of nuts” on the hard right.​Leadership spills and who's next07:20 – Susan Ley's lonely press conferences, Ted O'Brien's silence, and the air of inevitability about a leadership spill before or by budget time.​08:20 – Why the leadership needs “strength at the top”: the Gareth Evans line to Hawke – “the dogs are pissing on your swag” – as a metaphor for knowing when to go.​09:20 – Conversation about Angus Taylor, Andrew Hastie, Ted O'Brien and even Tim Wilson as possible leaders, and why the wrong timing can make almost anyone opposition leader.​10:40 – History lesson: unlikely leaders who flourished, from Henry Bolte in Victoria to Albanese, once dismissed by his own colleagues as a long shot.​11:40 – Albanese's long apprenticeship: learning from Howard's cautious style and the Rudd–Gillard chaos, and his instinct for the national mood.​Listener mail: Nationals, Barnaby and “public bar” politicians13:00 – Listener Lawrence compares One Nation to Britain's Reform Party; asks if Barnaby Joyce's baggage (drought envoy rorts, “Watergate,” drunken footpath photo) undermines his retail skills.​14:20 – Debating whether Barnaby ever was the “best retail politician” in the country; why he works brilliantly in rural and regional pubs but is “poison in the cities.”​16:10 – The “public bar” politician ideal: Barnaby as hail‑fellow‑well‑met who genuinely likes the people he's talking to, contrasted with Whitlam and Fraser looking awkward in 1970s pub photo ops.​17:20 – John Howard scrounging a fiver to shout a round, Barry Jones dying in Warrnambool pubs, and why Bob Hawke and Tony Abbott always looked at home with a schooner.​Australia Day, antisemitism and street violence18:00 – Australia Day wrap: The Australian newspaper's “social cohesion crisis” framing after antisemitism, violence and extremist rhetoric.​19:10 – Perth's rudimentary explosive device: ball bearings and screws around a liquid in a glass “coffee cup” thrown into an Invasion Day crowd at Forrest Place; police clear the area quickly.​21:00 – Melbourne: small March for Australia turnout, scuffles between their supporters and Invasion Day marchers, arrests likely to follow.​22:10 – Sydney: March for Australia rally of around 2,000 ending at Moore Park, open mic session, and the selection of a man wearing a Celtic cross shirt who launches into a vile antisemitic rant.​23:20 – His subsequent arrest in Darlinghurst and the Section 93Z charge (publicly threatening or inciting violence on racial or religious grounds), with possible three‑year jail term and $11,000 fine.​24:40 – Why the speech appears to meet the elements of the offence, and how such defendants are quickly turned into martyrs and crowdfunding heroes by the extreme right.​26:10 – The psychology of self‑styled martyrs seeking notoriety and donations; parallels with “Free Joel Davis” signs after threats to MP Allegra Spender.​Australia Day vs India's Republic Day27:20 – Australia Day clashing with India's Republic Day: Joel only just realises the overlap; Jack has known for years.​28:00 – History recap: Australia Day as a 1930s invention, not a national holiday until Keating's government in 1995; its big cultural take‑off in the 1988 Bicentennial year.​29:10 – India's enormous Republic Day parade: 10,000+ guests, missiles and tanks on show, EU leaders in attendance, congratulations from President Trump and President Xi – easily out‑shining Australia's low‑key day.​30:00 – Why big military parades feel culturally wrong in Australia; the discomfort with tanks and squeaky‑wheeled machinery rolling down main streets.​30:30 – The 26 January date debate: protests by Invasion Day marchers vs “flag shaggers,” plateauing protest numbers, and the sense that for most Australians it's just another day off.​31:20 – Arguments for a different nation‑building day (maybe early January for a built‑in long weekend), and the need for a better way to celebrate Australia's achievements without performative patriotism.​32:40 – Local citizenship ceremonies, Australia Day ambassadors and quiet country‑town rituals that still work well in spite of the culture war.​Minneapolis outrage, ICE shootings and US politics34:20 – Turning to the United States: the shooting of ICU nurse Alex Pretty by ICE agents in Minneapolis and the shock it has injected into US domestic politics.​34:50 – Video evidence vs official narrative: Pretty appears to be disarmed before being shot; the administration initially claiming he was planning a massacre of ICE agents.​35:40 – Trump's early blame of Democrat officials and policies, then a noticeable shift as outrage spreads more broadly across the political spectrum and the Insurrection Act chatter cools.​36:20 – Tom Homan's deployment to Minneapolis, the demotion of Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino, and reports that Homan will now report directly to President Trump rather than Kristi Noem.​37:10 – Internal GOP friction: suggestions Noem relished confrontation, while Homan did not; speculation Noem may be the first cabinet‑level casualty.​38:00 – Use of children as bait in immigration operations, American citizens detained, and two civilians shot dead by ICE; discussion of likely multi‑million‑dollar compensation exposure.​39:00 – Allegations of bribery and “missing 50 large,” the checkered backgrounds of some ICE agents and rumours about extremist links and failed cops finding a home in ICE.​40:00 – A snap YouGov poll: 46% of respondents wanting ICE disbanded, 41% opposed, and how this feeds the narrative that Noem will be thrown under the bus.​Sanctuary cities, federal power and Pam Bondi's letter41:10 – Trump's boastful but error‑strewn talk on Article 5 of the NATO treaty, and his correction that still belittled allies' sacrifices in Afghanistan.​41:40 – Casualties by nation: US 2,461, then significant losses from the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Australia, Poland, Spain and others – disproving Trump's “America alone” framing.​42:30 – Sanctuary cities vs federal supremacy: recalling the 2012 Arizona case where the Supreme Court confirmed immigration enforcement as a federal responsibility, and how that collides with sanctuary policies.​43:10 – Pam Bondi's letter to Minnesota's governor after the second ICE killing: reported threat to pull ICE agents in exchange for electoral records, and the ominous implications of such demands.​Greenland, Davos and market games44:00 – Trump's Greenland obsession revisited: from bluster at Davos about tariffs on European allies to a supposed “deal” that no‑one, including the Danes, can define.​44:40 – How tariff threats knocked markets down, then his Davos announcement walked them back and sent markets up; Ted Cruz warning Trump that crashing 401(k)s and high inflation would make the midterms a bloodbath.​45:40 – Japan and the US bond market: a brief panic in Japanese bonds, a Danish super fund's sale of US Treasuries, and the longer‑term vulnerability given that Japan, China and the EU hold so much US debt.​46:30 – Trump's relentless pressure on the Fed for lower rates in an inflationary environment, and the comparison with Erdogan's disastrous low‑rate, high‑inflation experiment in Turkey.​Davos speeches and a world with no rules47:10 – Mark Carney's standout Davos speech: we now live in a geopolitical environment with “no rules,” and the post‑WWII rules‑based order has largely broken down.​47:50 – Carney's planned March visit to Australia and likely address to a joint sitting of Parliament, plus his reputation as a sharp, articulate central banker.​48:20 – Hong Kong Jack's scepticism about “international law” as more fiction than practice; non‑Western powers paying lip service while ignoring it in reality.​49:00 – The German Chancellor's more consequential Davos speech on EU failures, competitiveness, and the need to reinvent Europe, backed in by Italian PM Giorgia Meloni.​49:40 – The “Sir Humphrey” view of the EU: you can only reform Brussels from the inside, not from outside as Brexit Britain is discovering.​Brexit's economic hit50:10 – Chancellor Mertz's critique of EU over‑regulation and the “world champions at regulation” line; the EU as an anti‑competitive behemoth that lost its free‑trade roots.​50:50 – Why countries like Spain struggle alone but “pack a punch” within the EU's collective GDP; Brexit as a decision to leave the world's biggest trading bloc.​51:20 – UK Office for Budget Responsibility analysis: since the 2016 referendum, estimated UK GDP per capita by 2025 is 6–8% lower than it would have been, with investment 12–18% lower and employment 3–4% lower than the “remain” counterfactual.​52:10 – How these losses emerged slowly, then accumulated as uncertainty persisted, trade barriers rose and firms diverted resources away from productive activity.​52:40 – Jack challenges the counterfactual: notes that actual UK GDP growth is only a couple of points below EU averages and doubts that UK governments would have outperformed Europe even without Brexit.​53:20 – Joel's rejoinder that the OBR work is widely accepted and that Brexit has created profound long‑term impacts on Britain's economy over the next 5–10 years.​Sport: cricket, Premier League and Australian Open heat55:20 – Australian cricket's depth: promising leg‑spinners and other talent juggling Shield cricket with gigs in the Caribbean Premier League, Pakistan Super League and more.​55:50 – Premier League title race: Arsenal's lead cut from seven to four points after a 3–2 loss to an invigorated Manchester United that also beat City in the derby.​56:30 – The “sugar hit” of a new coach at United, reverting to a more traditional style and the question of how long the bounce will last.​57:10 – Australian Open “Sinner controversy”: oppressive heat, the heat index rules for closing the roof, Jannik Sinner cooked at one set all before a pause, roof closure and air‑conditioning – and then a comfortable Sinner win.​58:00 – Accusations about coach Darren Cahill lobbying tournament boss Craig Tiley, and why the footage doesn't really support conspiracy theories.​58:30 – Djokovic's soft run after a walkover, the emergence of 19‑year‑old American Tien with Michael Chang in his box, and Chang's devout‑Christian clay‑court glory at Roland Garros.​59:20 – Heatwave conditions in southern Australia, fires in Victoria and the Otways/Jellibrand region, and a shout‑out to firefighters and residents under threat.​Final odds and ends01:00:20 – Closing thoughts on Australia's weather extremes, hoping for a wind change and some respite for the fireys.​01:00:50 – Jack's trivia nugget: Casablanca was once banned in Ireland for not being “sufficiently neutral” and not kind enough to the Nazis, segueing to bans on Lady Chatterley's Lover and Australian censorship history.​01:02:00 – Sign‑off from Joel (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack, promising to track the Perth bombing case, hate‑speech prosecutions, Canberra leadership moves and the unfolding Minneapolis/ICE scandal in future episodes.

Meet my friends, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton! If you love Verdict, the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show might also be in your audio wheelhouse. Politics, news analysis, and some pop culture and comedy thrown in too. Here’s a sample episode recapping four takeaways. Give the guys a listen and then follow and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Trump Accounts President Trump joined Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, CEOs and investors at an all-day summit in D.C. Highlighting a new imitative that will encourage fiscal responsibility. Joe Lavorgna, Counselor to U.S. Treasury Secretary An in‑depth interview with Joe Lavorgna, counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and former Wall Street economist. Lavorgna explains the Trump administration’s newly announced “Trump Accounts,” a policy initiative designed to provide newborn children with seed investment capital to encourage long‑term wealth building, financial literacy, and participation in the U.S. capitalist system. Clay and Buck explore the power of compound interest, with Lavorgna outlining how early investment contributions—combined with historical stock market returns—could grow into hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars over time. The discussion highlights the administration’s broader goal of expanding equity ownership and addressing the fact that millions of American households currently lack any exposure to the stock market. The conversation then expands to affordability, inflation, and economic growth heading into the 2026 midterm elections. Lavorgna argues that Trump‑era policies emphasizing deregulation, domestic energy production, capital investment, and productivity growth are creating what he describes as a “disinflationary boom.” He explains how rising productivity allows wages to increase while prices stabilize or fall, improving living standards and restoring purchasing power. Clay and Buck also question Lavorgna about public versus private markets, access to wealth creation for average investors, and the long‑term implications of the AI boom. Lavorgna expresses optimism that innovation, strong GDP growth, and declining inflation will continue to support market expansion and job creation. FBI Raid in Fulton County FBI agents are reported to be executing a search warrant at an election facility in Fulton County. Clay and Buck frame the raid as potentially tied to lingering questions surrounding the 2020 presidential election, noting that such discussions were once heavily censored on social media. While acknowledging the seriousness of federal involvement, both hosts caution listeners to temper expectations, citing statutes of limitation, institutional reluctance, and the likelihood that any findings—no matter how significant—would still be dismissed by partisan audiences. Election integrity and voter confidence dominate the early portion of Hour 3, with Clay and Buck debating whether meaningful accountability for 2020 is still possible and arguing that the most important outcome now is ensuring future elections are secure. They discuss how political polarization has hardened perceptions on both sides, referencing long‑standing beliefs among Democrats about Russian interference in 2016 and skepticism among Republicans about 2020 results. The hosts emphasize that Trump’s decisive return to the White House in 2024 may represent the most consequential response to past disputes, arguing that his second term has proven more powerful and effective than a hypothetical uninterrupted presidency would have been. The hour also includes updates on law enforcement actions tied to recent unrest, with Buck highlighting announcements from the Department of Justice regarding arrests of individuals accused of assaulting federal officers during anti‑ICE riots in Minnesota. While expressing skepticism about whether meaningful penalties will ultimately be imposed at the local level, both hosts agree that federal arrests represent a necessary step toward restoring order and protecting immigration enforcement personnel. Listener calls follow, including personal stories expressing support for law enforcement and reflections on accountability, responsibility, and respect for police officers doing difficult jobs under intense scrutiny Mark Halperin on the Future of Media An extended interview with veteran political journalist Mark Halperin. Halperin assesses the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term, arguing that Trump benefited strategically from four years out of office to plan, staff, and refine priorities. Halperin highlights what he describes as a more energized and deliberate administration, while outlining three major challenges ahead: passing legislation in a divided Senate, managing long‑term competition with China, and navigating the looming midterm elections. The discussion also addresses internal administration tensions, particularly surrounding DHS leadership and messaging failures related to ICE enforcement, with Halperin predicting that while personnel changes are unlikely, visibility and roles may shift. Halperin and the hosts further analyze the spread of anti‑ICE protests beyond Minneapolis, including incidents in New York City, and discuss how the administration must balance maintaining firm enforcement with controlling optics and preventing escalation. Halperin argues that better crowd control and clearer operational perimeters could reduce danger to both agents and civilians while limiting copycat protests. The hour also includes lighter moments, including a viral exchange about generational cultural knowledge involving legendary sports broadcasters John Madden and Pat Summerall, which sparks a humorous debate about media literacy, generational divides, and shared cultural reference points. Make sure you never miss a second of the show by subscribing to the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton show podcast wherever you get your podcasts! ihr.fm/3InlkL8 For the latest updates from Clay and Buck: https://www.clayandbuck.com/ Connect with Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on Social Media: X - https://x.com/clayandbuck FB - https://www.facebook.com/ClayandBuck/ IG - https://www.instagram.com/clayandbuck/ YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ClayandBuck TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@clayandbuckYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our Deputy Head of Global Research Michael Zezas explains why the risk of a new U.S. government shutdown is worth investor attention, but not overreaction.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Head of Global Research for Morgan Stanley. Today, we'll discuss the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown later this week, and what investors should – and should not – be worried about. It's Wednesday, January 28th at 10:30 am in New York. In recent weeks investors have had to consider all manner of policy catalysts for the markets – including the impact to oil supply and emerging markets from military action in Venezuela, potential military action in Iran, and risks of fracturing of the U.S.-Europe relationship over Greenland. By comparison, a potential U.S. government shutdown may seem rather quaint. But, a good investor aggressively manages all risks, so let's break this down. Amidst funding negotiations in the Senate, Democrats are pressing for tighter rules and more oversight on how immigration enforcement is carried out given recent events. Republicans have signaled some openness to negotiations, but the calendar is really a constraint. With the House out of session until early next week any Senate changes this week could lead to a lapse in funding. So, a brief shutdown this weekend, followed by a short continuing resolution once the House returns, is a very plausible path – not because either side wants a shutdown, but because they haven't fully coalesced around the strategy and time is short. Of course, once a shutdown happens, there's a risk it could drag on. But in general our base case is that the economic impact would be manageable. Historically, shutdowns create meaningful hardship for affected workers and contractors. But the aggregate macro effects tend to be modest and reversible. Most spending is eventually made up, and disruptions to growth typically unwind quickly once funding is restored. A useful rule of thumb is that a full shutdown trims roughly one‑tenth of a percentage point from the annualized quarterly GDP for each week it lasts. With several appropriations bills already passed, what we'd face now is a partial shutdown, meaning that figure would be even smaller. For markets, that means the reaction should also be modest. Shutdowns tend not to reprice the fundamental path of earnings, inflation, or the Fed – which are still the dominant drivers of asset performance. So, the market's inclination will likely be to look past the noise and focus on more substantive catalysts ahead. Finally, it's worth unpacking the politics here, because they're relevant. But not in the way investors might think. The shutdown risk is emerging from actions that have contributed to sagging approval ratings for the President and Republicans – leading many investors to ask us what this means for midterm elections and resulting public policy choices. And taken together, one could read these dynamics as an early sign that the Republicans may face a difficult midterm environment. We think it's too early to draw any confident conclusions about this, but even if we could, we're not sure it matters. First, many of the most market‑relevant policies—on trade, regulation, industrial strategy, re‑shoring, and increasingly AI—are being executed through executive authority, not congressional action. That means their trajectory is unlikely to be altered by near‑term political turbulence. Second, the President would almost certainly veto any effort to roll back last year's tax bill, which created a suite of incentives aimed at corporate capex. A key driver of the 2026 outlook. Putting it all together, the bottom line is this: A short, calendar‑driven shutdown is a risk worth monitoring, but not one to overreact to. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review. And tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:Is it true that someone needs to earn £71,000 before they receive more money than a family on benefits?Did Canadian prime minister Mark Carney get the GDP of Canada and the Nordic countries wrong?Are 1990s pop icons Right Said Fred right about what they said about church attacks?Is a sauna really ten times as hot as Wales in the winter?And Tim hits the science lab treadmill to find out if he can run a four-hour marathon.If you've seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.ukContributors: Gareth Morgan, benefits expert and author of the Benefits in the Future blog Joe Shalam, policy director of the Centre for Social Justice Professor Kelly Morrison, head of physics at Loughborough University Dr Danny Muniz, a senior lecturer in Exercise Physiology at the University of HertfordshireCredits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Nathan Gower, Lizzy McNeill and Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

HOUR 3: Swiftynomics. How she moved the GDP cities around the world. full 2350 Wed, 28 Jan 2026 22:00:00 +0000 gomGTmAQ70Z02BG4HxjwLFqdLthqX7l7 news The Dana & Parks Podcast news HOUR 3: Swiftynomics. How she moved the GDP cities around the world. You wanted it... Now here it is! Listen to each hour of the Dana & Parks Show whenever and wherever you want! © 2025 Audacy, Inc. News False https://player.amperwave

India is reporting 8%+ GDP growth and cooling inflation, yet stock market returns are muted, the rupee continues to weaken, and everyday expenses feel anything but stable. So which reality should we trust? In this episode, Deepak and Shray unpack the contradictions shaping India's economy today. From headline vs core inflation to GDP data quality, rupee depreciation, and why markets aren't rewarding growth, they connect macro numbers to lived experience. A nuanced, data-driven conversation on what truly lies beneath the headlines and what it means for investors, policy watchers, and India's economic trajectory heading into 2026 and beyond. Chapters: 00:00 - Introduction 01:15 - GDP growth 8.2% but contradictions everywhere 02:32 - Are we booming or fizzling out? 02:55 - Let's start with inflation 08:09 - Headline inflation 0.71% vs core inflation 4.1% 10:07 - Why people don't believe 0.7% inflation 12:08 - Bangalore rent example - 28k to 60k 15:10 - Supply will moderate rent prices 17:37 - Inflation expectations matter 21:05 - Uncertainty makes planning difficult 22:07 - What's happening with the rupee? 22:36 - Economics standing on its head 24:08 - Gold making current account look worse 28:31 - RBI needs to decide - control or not? 31:37 - GDP - 8.2% real growth 35:29 - Base year problem - still using 2011-12 40:37 - Discrepancies in GDP calculation 43:11 - What's driving growth? 43:16 - Manufacturing doing well at 9% 47:43 - Financial services growth worrying 48:05 - Is 8% growth here to stay? 51:42 - China grew 10% for 15 years 56:22 - Stock market - just a bad year? 59:16 - Small players will benefit more 1:05:38 - SEBI new rules on TER and BER 1:06:04 - What are the changes? 1:17:47 - TER vs BER explained 1:23:23 - Who benefits from new rules? 1:30:18 - Brokerage reduction impact 1:34:16 - Impact on sell-side research 1:36:17 - BER is more comparable going forward

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  The dollar just moved fast—parabolic fast—and it's not an accident. A weaker dollar may juice exports, GDP numbers, and corporate profits, but it also means higher prices, shrinking savings, and declining purchasing power for everyday Americans.This is the quiet devaluation play: make debt cheaper to repay, inflate assets, and sell it as “competitiveness.” Great if you own assets. Brutal if you live on wages or cash.The dollar isn't dying overnight—but its long-term trend is clear. And if you don't understand what's happening, you'll pay for it.

問：目前七大工業國（G7）的政府負債情況有多嚴重？ 答：在七大工業國中，除了德國因憲法限制負債比例於 GDP 的 65% 外，其餘六國的債務對 GDP 比例均已超過 100% 。其中日本情況最為嚴重，而義大利與美國的債務比例預計在 2026 年分別達到 136.5% 及 125% 。問：美國政府目前的財政壓力主要來自哪裡？ 答：美國政府的總債務已超過 39 萬億美元，每日債務增長達 62 億美元 。2026 年的利息支出預計突破 1 萬億美元，這一數字已遠高於國防開支，導致財政極度吃力 。問：為什麼日本的國債利息在 2026 年初會出現急升？ 答：市場對日本政府維持營運的能力產生懷疑。當政府提出鉅額刺激經濟方案並建議暫緩消費稅時，引發市場恐慌，導致 40 年期債息暴升至 4.24 厘，10 年期債息亦創下 27 年新高 。問：央行透過提高流動性來支持政府發債會有什麼副作用？ 答：這種做法雖然能壓抑利率並支撐債價，但代價是貨幣貶值 。當貨幣供應增加，進口價格上升會引發通脹，形成一種貨幣現象，最終蠶食投資者收回的資金價值 。問：中國目前的經濟結構性問題與債務風險為何？ 答：中國自 2020 年房地產泡沫爆破後，財政缺口尚未解決，地方融資平台債務估計達 19 萬億美元，規模等同其 GDP 。雖然其國債息率呈下降趨勢，但這反映了資金避險至政府債券，是經濟增長放緩的跡象 。問：在長期經濟增長放緩的預期下，資金流向有什麼轉變？ 答：資金正從政府債券流向實物資產，如黃金、土地、房屋及原材料。比特幣雖然具備貨幣基礎條件，但目前仍具投機意味，真正的避險資金主要帶動金價急升 。 This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit leesimon.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode, Scott Becker speaks with Amber Walsh of McGuireWoods LLP, about the economic impact of major storms, from GDP losses to business disruption, and how weather risk is influencing healthcare investing and private equity diligence.

India and the European Union have signed a massive trade deal that will account for a quarter of the world's GDP. This follows another deal struck by the EU with Latin American countries this month. Also, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez wants to fast-track residency for hundreds of thousands of immigrants. And, US threats to take control of Greenland have rattled Europe's far-right leaders, some of President Trump's staunchest allies. Plus, when space debris enters Earth's atmosphere, some of it ends up at Point Nemo, a remote area of the Pacific with depths of around 13,000 feet. Learn about your ad choices: dovetail.prx.org/ad-choices

Today, Sun business reporter Tamara Chuang puts context around a variety year-end reports and statistics, including the 1 million business in Colorado, the state’s GDP as it relates to job growth, and the growing vacancy rates for both downtown Denver office space and metro area apartments. https://coloradosun.com/2026/01/24/new-colorado-businesses-2025-but-slow-renewals-dissolutions/ https://coloradosun.com/2026/01/22/denver-downtown-office-vacancy-rate-tenants-workplace/ https://coloradosun.com/2026/01/21/apartments-in-metro-denver-reach-highest-vacancy-rate-in-16-years-pushing-down-rents-again/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Send us a textThink the Fed can always tame inflation if it just hikes a little harder? We sat down with economist Eric Leeper to unpack why that story falls apart once you account for Congress's power over taxes, spending, and debt. Eric explains operational independence in plain terms, traces how the modern central bank mandate evolved, and shows why economic outcomes depend on both monetary and fiscal choices—especially when higher rates swell interest costs and the bill gets rolled into more borrowing.We walk through the fiscal foundations of inflation: $40 trillion in government liabilities backed by the expectation of future primary surpluses. When those expectations wobble, the price level does the adjustment. That lens reframes the 1970s and Volcker era, highlighting the fiscal steps that helped disinflation succeed. Fast forward to today's 100 percent debt-to-GDP world and the signals are harder to ignore—tailing Treasury auctions, a tilt to shorter maturities, and foreign buyers stepping back. Eric connects those dots to fiscal dominance, where rate hikes can perversely fuel inflation by making bondholders feel richer, forcing the Fed into a damaging loop of ever-tighter policy and ever-rising debt service.So what actually works? Eric outlines a pragmatic Plan B for central banks when Congress won't deliver credibility: prioritize smoother, more predictable inflation paths, reduce policy whiplash, and communicate the fiscal conditions required to reclaim durable price stability. Along the way, we revisit the “Hamilton norm,” examine the UK's 2022 market shock as a cautionary tale, and challenge the idea that inflation control lives only at the Fed.If you care about markets, policy, or your portfolio's real returns, this conversation offers a clearer framework for what moves inflation—and who must act to anchor it. Subscribe, share with a friend who loves macro debates, and leave a review with your take on the best path back to stability.Thanks for listening! Please be sure to review the podcast or send your comments to me by email at info@not-another-investment-podcast.com. And tell your friends!

Family-owned enterprises are the cornerstone of Asia's economy, contributing roughly 70 percent of GDP and employing over 60 percent of the workforce in some markets. Much more than just commercial entities, these firms are deeply embedded into the social fabric and are typically driven by long-term vision and entrepreneurial stewardship.In this edition of “The INSEAD Perspective: Spotlight on Asia” podcast series, Sameer Hasija, Dean of Asia at INSEAD, asks Bala Vissa, Professor of Entrepreneurship and Family Enterprise, for his thoughts on the status of family businesses in the region, the challenges that are currently reshaping their future and how family offices may be one solution to navigating these complexities. From bridging the success gap to tackling the rise of AI and ongoing digital transformation this wide- ranging conversation also explores how INSEAD is playing an important role in tackling this period of disruption and helping family businesses see it as an opportunity. Through workshops and programmes, INSEAD is connecting family firms to private equity and allowing both sides to better understand how they can work together to foster resilient growth and long-term success in today's rapidly changing global environment.

The annual value of industries highly dependent on nature amounts to15% of the global GDP, yet the benefits nature provides to businesses, as well as the impact of businesses on nature, are largely overlooked. This episode explores the business advantages of biodiversity conservation, and how companies can incorporate biodiversity as a core component of their sustainability strategies. It also looks ahead to the IPBES Business and Biodiversity Report which is due to be published in February 2026. The report's co-authors, Matt Jones, (Chief Impact Officer at the UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre), and Ximena Rueada (an Associate Professor at the School of Management at Universidad de Los Andes in Colombia) both feature in the episode. To find out more about IPBES, go to www.ipbes.net or follow us on social media @IPBES

In this episode, Scott Becker speaks with Amber Walsh of McGuireWoods LLP, about the economic impact of major storms, from GDP losses to business disruption, and how weather risk is influencing healthcare investing and private equity diligence.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureChina & Canada are trying to bypass Trump trade tariffs. This has already failed, and Trump calls out Carney.EU economy is weak and it is getting weaker, there are two paths, one that follows the [CB] agenda the other is Trump economic agenda. Inflation declines again, Gold and Silver are up, Trump’s plan is working, its time to end the endless.The [DS] is now calling for the insurgency to accelerate. Clinton and Obama are now calling on their foot soldiers to push the insurrection against Trump. Trump has put a message to all D’s, lets work together, the optics are very good, the D’s will do this for a short period of time but in the end they will push the insurrection. Once they do this, they lost the people. Timing and optics are very important.   Economy  Carney Cracks: Canada Has ‘No Intention’ Of Pursuing Free Trade Deal With China After Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs To review: right before Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney returned from a trip to Beijing and announced a new 5-point ‘strategic partnership’ to ‘diversify our trade partnerships.’ The agreements included slashing tariffs on Chinese EV imports from 100 percent to 6.1 percent for the first 49,000 units, in exchange for China cutting tariffs on Canadian canola from 85 percent to 15 percent until at least the end of the year. Other exports, including Canadian canola meal, lobsters, crabs, and peas will also not be subject to Chinese anti-discrimination tariffs until at least the end of 2026. A week later, Carney told the global elite at Davos resort that the “rules-based order” established by the United States and its allies following WW2 was fraying amid the current rivalry between China and America, so the “middle powers must act together because if we’re not on the table, we’re on the menu.”  Carney said that for their survival, nations should no longer “go along to get along” with Trump.   Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says Canada has “no intention” of pursuing a free trade deal with China, after Donald Trump threatened to slap a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Ottawa “makes a deal” with Beijing.   Source: zerohedge.com Trump Is Right About Europe's Weak Economy: U.S. vs. EU Compared  President Trump argued that Europe's economic stagnation is the result of a self-inflicted “civilizational erasure” driven by reliance on what he calls the “Green New Scam,” which he says has replaced affordable energy with costly and unreliable wind power. He further asserted that unchecked mass migration has strained social infrastructure and altered the continent's cultural identity, while a stifling regulatory environment and excessive government spending have suppressed the innovation needed to compete with the United States. Finally, he accused European nations of freeloading on American security, arguing that their failure to meet NATO defense spending targets over the past 70 years has allowed them to avoid the true costs of national sovereignty at the expense of the American taxpayer. Based on current economic data as of January 2026, the comparison supports Trump's critique. While the United States is experiencing aggressive growth alongside widespread deregulation, Europe remains mired in what can best be described as stabilized stagnation. The United States enters 2026 with inflation at 2.7%, steadily returning toward the 2% target. As in President Trump's first term, strong GDP growth has been paired with relatively modest inflation. Fourth-quarter GDP growth is projected at 5.4%, dwarfing Europe's stagnant 0.2%. For the full year, U.S. growth is expected to reach between 4.3% and 5%, while Europe is projected to manage only about 1.3% to 1.6%. On the labor front, the United States maintains its historical advantage, with unemployment at 4.4% compared to 6.3% in the Eurozone. This low level of unemployment has been achieved despite deep government job cuts that reduced taxpayer costs. While the United States reduced federal spending by $100 billion, European fiscal policy has moved in the opposite direction. The U.S. has moved 1.2 million people off food stamps, while European social safety nets are coming under increased strain from rising living costs. In 2024, the most recent data available, EU social protection spending rose by 7%, far outpacing nominal GDP growth. This imbalance pushed the social expenditure-to-GDP ratio to 27.3% across the bloc, with countries such as France and Austria exceeding 31%, reinforcing the strain caused by rising demand for social welfare. Energy remains far cheaper in the United States, particularly electricity and natural gas, due to abundant domestic production, lower taxes and levies, and reduced reliance on imports, with overall prices about half of Europe's and industrial electricity often as little as one-third. Source: thegatewaypundit.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2015764155580756471?s=20 https://twitter.com/truflation/status/2015770236105138602?s=20 https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2015647917441183786?s=20 spending problems. Gold is at record highs against every currency, not just the dollar Political/Rights DOGE https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2015553600106164548?s=20 Geopolitical https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2015729194270154997?s=20   supply before then. More LNG, more U.S. gas, more renewables… Higher costs baked in. For Brussels this is an irreversible line. After 2027, there's no “going back to normal.” The EU has indeed been importing refined petroleum products from India that originate from Russian crude oil, creating an indirect pathway for Russian oil to enter the European market despite sanctions on direct imports from Russia since December 2022.  This circumvention became prominent after the EU and G7 imposed a price cap on Russian oil, prompting Russia to redirect exports to countries like India and China, where the crude is refined and then resold.    EU officials and analysts have long acknowledged the loophole, which is why recent sanctions packages have targeted it directly. For instance, the EU’s 18th sanctions package in July 2025 banned the import of petroleum products derived from Russian crude processed in third countries, and specifically sanctioned Nayara Energy, an Indian refinery partly owned by Russia’s Rosneft.  The 19th package in October 2025 further tightened measures by sanctioning additional third-country entities, including three in India, for supporting Russia’s circumvention efforts. As a result, major Indian refiners like Reliance Industries have stopped importing Russian crude for certain facilities to comply with these rules and maintain access to EU markets. Russia, meanwhile, continues to adapt by using new middlemen exporters to supply India, aiming to sustain the flow despite the crackdown.  India has not fully stopped importing Russian oil since then, but imports have significantly declined. In 2025, Russia’s share of India’s crude oil imports fell to 33.3% from 36% the previous year, while OPEC’s share rose slightly to 50%.  By December 2025, India dropped to the third-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels overall, importing €2.3 billion worth that month, with major refiners like Reliance Industries scaling back or halting purchases.    This reduction appears driven by a mix of U.S. tariff pressures, steeper discounts on Russian crude drawing buyers back selectively, and India’s strategic diversification to ensure energy security without fully alienating Russia—a key defense and trade partner. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2015527595975033161?s=20   the CMC Joint Staff Dept: Under investigation for violations 5. Director of CMC Political Work Dept: Removed in 2025 over corruption The US-China rivalry has gone well beyond trade.   The purges depicted in the image of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC) stem from an escalating anti-corruption campaign under Xi Jinping, which has targeted the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) extensively since 2023. This drive is officially framed as rooting out graft, bribery, and disciplinary violations, but analysts widely interpret it as a mechanism for Xi to consolidate power, enforce unwavering loyalty among military leaders, and address systemic issues like incompetence or factional rivalries that could undermine PLA readiness.  The campaign has intensified in 2025-2026, affecting nearly the entire top echelon of the CMC—China’s highest military decision-making body, chaired by Xi himself—leaving it in significant disarray  War/Peace Report: Iran's Khamenei Flees to ‘Fortified' Bunker, Fearing U.S. Strike Following rising concerns over a possible U.S. military strike, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has relocated to a heavily fortified underground compound in Tehran, according to reports, which cited sources close to the regime who revealed his son now oversees day-to-day operations. Source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2015828196273303756?s=20 calling it a dream disconnected from reality. The US covers about 68% of NATO defense spending while Europe still misses its 2% commitments. Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/2015559098847428717?s=20 https://twitter.com/JoeConchaTV/status/2015519543846703552?s=20 If you are preparing a city for an insurrection is this what you do to lower morale, have police quit and this way there is no one to stop the insurgency     In 2024 Minnesota AG Keith Ellison Argued No Right to Carry a Gun at ‘Political Rallies and Protests' In 2024, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) was among 17 AGs who contended there is no right to carry a gun at “political rallies and protests.” The AGs did this in a January 26, 2024, filing in support of upholding California's gun controls for “sensitive places” in a Ninth Circuit case. In the filing, Ellison and the other AGs expressed support for banning the possession of firearms “in crowded places.” The AGs wrote: “Without the power to institute such restrictions, California and other states would be left unable effectively to prevent gun violence in crowded places, around vulnerable populations, or where individuals are exercising other constitutionally protected rights, putting the public at risk.” They emphasized, “Even the perceived risk of gun violence could cause repercussions, as individuals may be discouraged from visiting crowded or confined locations where they know others may be armed.” Source: breitbart.com https://twitter.com/BillClinton/status/2015562744993350135?s=20 Didn’t Bill and Hiliary Violate a Supeona to testify in front of congress, they broke the law, shouldn’t he be in jail. Barack Obama Urges More Street Protests, Blames Trump for Minneapolis Shooting https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/2015479691147149747?s=20 4700 Q !!Hs1Jq13jV6 ID: a54ff9 No.10644532 Sep 14 2020 11:34:31 (EST) Worth remembering [think what you see today]. https://2009-2017.state.gov/documents/organization/119629.pdf

“All the market wants right now is stability and consistency,” says Ted Thatcher, but volatility continues. He argues that Americans' economic outlook is largely based on their ability to access credit and discusses GDP and earnings potential. Key opportunities for investors include “bottlenecks” like Iren (IREN), along with silver and Amazon (AMZN). Iren has recently made several major deals with the Mag 7 and he thinks it is well-placed in the A.I. environment. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

All eyes have been on President Trump's address at the World Economic Forum. Michael Zezas, our Deputy Global Head of Research, and Ariana Salvatore, our Head of Public Policy Research, talk about potential implications for policy and the U.S. outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Deputy Global Head of Research for Morgan Stanley. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research. Michael Zezas: Today we're discussing our takeaways from President Trump's speech in Davos and what we think it means for investors. It's Wednesday, January 21st at 1pm in New York. Michael Zezas: So, Ariana, over the last couple of weeks, there's been a lot of news about policy proposals coming out of the U.S. and from President Trump around affordability, as well as some geopolitical events around the U.S. relationship with Europe. And investors really started looking towards President Trump's speech at Davos, which he gave earlier today, as a potential vehicle to learn more about what these things would actually mean and what it might mean for the economic outlook and markets. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, that's right. I think specifically investors were looking for the President to focus on affordability proposals pertaining to housing and some commentary around Greenland. Remember last weekend, President Trump proposed a 10 percent tariff on some EU countries related to this topic specifically. So obviously that did feature in his speech. What did we learn and what do you think are the most important things for markets to know? Michael Zezas: So, maybe the most important headline we got was President Trump appearing to take off the table the use of force when it comes to an attempt to acquire Greenland. And that would seem to, therefore, take off the table the idea of a broader rupture in the U.S.-EU relationship. Both the security relationship vis-a-vis NATO, as well as the economic relationship which could have been ruptured with higher tariffs on both sides, anti coercion measures around trade, and that would be of obvious economic importance. Europe is obviously a major importer of U.S. goods. Not as big as Canada or Mexico, but still pretty significant. So, anything that would've created higher barriers between the two would've had meaningful economic consequences for the U.S. outlook. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, that's right. And we've been saying that the bilateral trade framework agreement between the U.S. and the EU is actually pretty tenuous in nature, right? So, this doesn't yet have formal backing from the European Parliament. They, in fact, delayed a vote on this exact deal, kind of on the back of these Greenland headlines. So how are we thinking about, you know, what's been priced into markets and maybe what this could mean for something like the dollar going forward? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so it's important to point out that we're not out of the woods yet in terms of potential trade escalation on both sides around the Greenland issue. However, it seems like that bigger tail problem of a decoupling might have gone away. And so, what you saw in markets so far today was that some of the actions over the past, kind of, 24-48 hours with equity market weakness. You know, the S&P was down about 2 percent yesterday. The dollar was weaker. It seemed like more term premium was being baked into the U.S. Treasury market. A lot of that appears to be unwinding today. Said more simply, the idea of a kind of riskier investment environment for the U.S. is getting priced out. At least today, it's getting priced out. And it all makes sense when you think about if there was less of a relationship between the U.S. and Europe, there would be less demand for U.S. dollar holdings overseas. And that's the type of thing that should manifest in a weaker dollar and higher term premia, steeper yield curves for U.S. Treasuries. Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, and that dovetails really nicely with the work that we just put out with the FX team, kind of highlighting some of the policy factors as push factors for countries to move away from the dollar. We think that's happening marginally. We think it's not really a risk in the immediate term, but some of these policy drivers can actually create dollar weakness over the medium to longer term. Michael Zezas: Of course, to the extent that we get news that this is a head fake and that tensions are re-escalating, you'd expect some of those trades to start pushing markets back in the other direction again. Now, President Trump also talked quite a bit about domestic policy, largely about affordability, and some of the policy proposals he's put forward over the last couple of weeks. Was there any new details that you heard that you think are meaningful for investors? Ariana Salvatore: So, the short version is nothing really new, and the reality is that a lot of housing policy in particular is actually out of the hands of the executive. And even if you do see congressional action here, it's likely to be marginal. A lot of housing policy is done at the state level, and even bipartisan efforts to address both the demand and the supply sides of the equation have faced some resistance in Congress. That doesn't mean they can't reemerge. But we would need to see a very large decline in the mortgage rate to get noticeable effects on economic indicators like GDP, inflation and employment. And in terms of what this means for the housing outlook, the programs talked about so far should push sales marginally higher but have little impact on our expectations for our home prices. Now it's important to note that the president didn't spend that much time of the speech talking about housing affordability proposals, as was telegraphed ahead of time. And since that, the head of the NEC Kevin Hassett has said they plan to announce more details on housing in the coming days. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, on the two pieces here that investors have really focused on, which are capping institutional ownership of single-family homes and potentially capping interest rates on credit cards, it sounded like the president talked about he would go to Congress for authorization on those things.Is that right? And if so, how plausible is it that Congress could actually deliver those authorities? Ariana Salvatore: So, here's where I think it's really critical to understand the role that Congress has to play in all of these policy initiatives. So, there are not only political constraints, but there are also procedural ones. If we were to see Republicans kind of push for this 10 percent cap, for example, that likely would have to go through the reconciliation process. And that process, as we know, comes with a number of limitations because something like a 10 percent cap wouldn't have much of an impact on the federal budget in terms of revenues or outlays. We think it's most likely not going to be permissible under that framework. So, understanding that the first filter here is Congress, and the second filter is these procedural limitations that exist in and of themselves is really important context for understanding the president's proposals on housing.Michael Zezas: So, is it fair to say the starting point is that we think Congress is unlikely to act on these things? And what would you have to see that might make you think differently? Ariana Salvatore: I think where we're looking for signals from Republican leadership in Congress – because as of right now, it's been our thinking that a second reconciliation bill ahead of the midterm elections is not feasible. It's too difficult politically, it takes a lot of time, but if you see enough of a push from the president, we do think that can start to become feasible. Again, we have to keep in mind these procedural limitations and where the rest of the party falls on these issues. But I think they're possible if the administration pushes hard enough for them.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, even though we don't think it's likely, we obviously want to prepare in case that happens. When it comes to housing, it seems like our team has said institutional ownership of single-family housing is quite low, 1 percent or less. And so, restrictions there wouldn't necessarily change the game on home prices. What about the 10 percent cap on credit card interests? What are the broader ramifications that our colleagues see? Ariana Salvatore: Yeah, so I'd say generally speaking, when it comes to consumer credit affordability policies, our strategists think that these could actually translate to a benefit for consumer ABS performance because they tend to be a tailwind for a consumer that's struggled with rising delinquencies and defaults post-COVID, right? However, there are some specific proposals like this cap on credit cards, and that's likely going to have a negative consequence because it's going to limit credit access for consumers, especially for those carrying a balance. So, probably a little bit counterintuitive to the overall affordability agenda that the administration's trying to go for. Michael Zezas: So, lots of interesting stuff coming out of the speech. Lots of things we have to track over the next few weeks and months. It certainly doesn't seem like it's going to be a boring year two of the Trump term for investors. Ariana Salvatore: Certainly not, and not for us either. Michael Zezas: Well, Ariana, thanks for finding the time to talk. Ariana Salvatore: Great speaking with you, Mike. Michael Zezas: And as a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode, Scott Becker discusses Intel's sharp turnaround and stock surge, a market rebound tied to easing geopolitical tensions, and GDP growth accelerating to a 4.4% pace.

In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel provides an update on the market's performance over the past few days, discussing the recent rally in the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq. He highlights the ongoing outperformance of small caps and their strong start to the year. The bond market's stability and yield curve trends are also noted. Brian shares his thoughts on the relevance of gold and silver investments, emphasizing a focus on fundamentals and cash flows. Additionally, he addresses a client's question about index funds, discussing their impact on market bubbles and the role of hedge funds. The episode concludes with economic updates on jobless claims, GDP revision, and PCE data. Brian encourages listeners to reach out with their questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Update 00:37 Small Caps Performance 01:06 Bond Market Insights 01:42 Gold and Silver Analysis 02:58 Discussion on Index Funds 04:19 Economic Calendar Highlights 05:02 Conclusion and Closing Remarks Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Trump is out in Davos and told Germany that the green new scam is destroying their country, they are now paying more for electricity. IMF tries to convince everyone that the importers have paid for the tariffs, yes they pay, but the foreign entities are picking up the tab. Trump is planning to distribute $2000 dividend to the people. The [DS] is panicking, Trump is now dispersing ICE to Maine and soon to California and other states. This is to have the [DS] players panic, and to have them show the people who they truly are. The [DS] was fed fake news about ICE. Trump has now won Greenland. The stage is now set for the midterms. Trump is putting everything in place.   Economy https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2013977810117755184?s=20 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2013964611230281850?s=20 U.S. importers pay 100% of the tariff taxes. They are paid directly to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) via bank ACH. This is a simple fact. Anything else you read or hear is factually incorrect. Importers can negotiate with foreign exporters (suppliers in other countries) to offset tariff costs, such as by securing lower purchase prices, rebates, or other contractual adjustments that effectively shift some financial burden back to the exporter. This is a common business practice in international trade to maintain competitiveness. However, importers cannot directly obtain funds from foreign governments to pay U.S. customs duties (tariffs), as tariffs are a U.S. revenue tool imposed on the importer of record, not on foreign entities. Foreign governments might offer their own exporters subsidies or incentives in response to tariffs, but those don’t flow directly to U.S. importers for tariff payment. https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2013716660046213357?s=20 https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2013984150835888368?s=20   By The Numbers… Trump’s (Second) First Year In 10 Charts    Since President Trump took office in January 2025, stock indexes have reached new highs.   Economic Growth After a 0.6 percent contraction in the first quarter, U.S. economic growth accelerated and exceeded economists' expectations in 2025, avoiding a feared recession. GDP grew by 3.8 percent in Q2 and 4.3 percent in Q3—the strongest performance in two years.   Inflation Inflation reached 9.1 percent in 2022, the highest level in decades. Although consumer prices remained elevated through 2025, inflation rates were lower than those recorded during the Biden administration.   Trade Despite the trade deficit widening in the first three months of 2025 as businesses rushed to front-run President Donald Trump's global tariffs, America's monthly trade balance has improved substantially.   Employment Since last summer, the U.S. labor market has been characterized by what some economists call “low fire, low hire,” with companies neither reducing nor expanding their workforce.   Gas Prices One of the major achievements of the Trump administration has been the substantial decline in gas prices. From record production to loosening regulations, businesses and consumers have seen lower energy costs.   Mortgage Rates When President Donald Trump started his second term at the White House, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was around 7 percent. Since then, it has fallen significantly, even temporarily sliding below 6 percent for the first time in more than three years.       Source: zerohedge.com https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2013708284016886078?s=20 President Trump won’t need Congress if he can have funds they’ve already appropriated distributed as “tariff dividends” by reframing the payments so they fit within the allocated budget. Similar was done to send $1,776 payments to active military members. https://twitter.com/PatriotVerity/status/2013751222998585779?s=20 Political/Rights Shocking Undercover Video Shows Judges in Ohio Immigration Courts Can be Bribed to Keep Illegals in the US Shocking undercover video obtained by Townhall shows judges in Ohio immigration courts can be bribed to keep illegal aliens in the United States. The footage was posted to X on Tuesday morning. The video sheds light on the underground business of smuggling illegals into the US, helping them get jobs and bribing immigration judges to rule in their favor. A woman identified as Patricia “Pat” Golder claimed in the video that she takes some of the money given to West African migrants in exchange for her bribing judges to rule in their favor. An undercover reporter was introduced to Golder by a woman named Cindy Reis. “She gets them their papers. She does,” Reis told the reporter as she introduced him to Patricia Golder. “He knows about Mulberry Street.” “I try to work with them the best I can,” Golder said. Golder told the reporter that some of the migrants “have papers” and some don't. She said she helps the illegals get jobs but would not name the companies because of “the threat of ICE.” Later on in the video, Golder discloses that she visits judges at bars and restaurants. “If I can get to the judge. You know, that's the only person you want to talk to is the judge,” Golder says with a smile on her face. “Wait, say that again?” the reporter said. “If I can get to the judge it's okay. I make conversation with them,” Golder said. “If the judge says, “Yeah, Okay, $50,000 I send everybody to you,” she said. “I go to the bar like everybody drink. Spot the judge. I say, ‘You work on this date?' He's like, ‘let me see my calendar'…give me my $50G's,” she said. “The judge says that?” the reporter asked in disbelief. Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2014035464999645323?s=20   https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/2013729171348877486?s=20 https://twitter.com/DOGEai_tx/status/2014020697207513531?s=20  Judge Paul Engelmayer has ordered a SECOND review of those documents and is now requiring certification of those documents by U.S. Attorney Jay Clayton, while simultaneously blocking the appointment of a special counsel. This is causing MAJOR delays. I will be bringing forward a bill to IMPEACH Judge Engelmayer for obstructing the release of the Epstein files and failure to appoint special counsel! Release the files!  endless procedural roadblocks. Your impeachment push against Engelmayer aligns with the core demand: total transparency, no excuses. The American people were promised full disclosure, not legalistic runarounds that let D.C. insiders dictate what truths see daylight. Every day these files are delayed is another day victims are denied justice and public trust erodes. Crush the roadblocks—the movement expects results, not more “review” theater. https://twitter.com/GOPoversight/status/2014073554505957690?s=20 DOGE https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2013487919370051717?s=20  by Grok, xAI’s open-source transformer. No manual heuristics. No hidden thumb on the scale. The algorithm predicts 15 different user actions and uses “attention masking” to ensure each post is scored independently, eliminating batch bias. Most interesting? A built-in Author Diversity Scorer prevents any single account from dominating your feed. Researchers, competitors, and critics can now verify exactly how content gets promoted or filtered. Facebook won’t do this. TikTok won’t do this. YouTube won’t do this.

Meet my friends, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton! If you love Verdict, the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show might also be in your audio wheelhouse. Politics, news analysis, and some pop culture and comedy thrown in too. Here’s a sample episode recapping four takeaways. Give the guys a listen and then follow and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Going After Greenland Reaction to the College Football National Championship, where Indiana defeated Miami in a game Clay Travis and Buck Sexton attended in person alongside President Donald Trump. The hosts describe the atmosphere as overwhelmingly pro‑Indiana despite Miami hosting, highlight Trump’s appearance during the national anthem, and reflect on what they characterize as a renewed sense of public patriotism at major American sporting events. A deep dive into President Trump’s escalating push to acquire Greenland, which Clay and Buck frame as one of the most consequential and unexpected foreign‑policy stories of the moment. They analyze Trump’s comments asserting that Denmark cannot adequately defend the territory, his insistence that the U.S. “has to have it” for national security reasons, and prediction‑market odds placing roughly a 50‑50 chance on American control of at least part of Greenland in the near future. The hosts connect the potential acquisition to U.S. military strategy, Arctic dominance, rare‑earth minerals, long‑term resource access, and historical precedents like the Louisiana Purchase and the Alaska deal. Exploring the U.S. military presence at Greenland’s Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) and NATO reactions, including symbolic European military drills. Clay and Buck argue these gestures have not deterred Trump, who has elevated Greenland as a headline issue ahead of the World Economic Forum in Davos. They discuss Trump’s negotiating style—starting with seemingly outrageous positions to force concessions—and speculate on territorial status, sovereignty questions, and whether Greenland’s small population could eventually vote to become a U.S. territory under existing American territorial law. Trump 2.0 An evaluation of President Donald Trump’s first year in his second term, marking the one‑year anniversary of Trump’s return to office and the official start of Trump 2.0 Year Two. Clay Travis and Buck Sexton frame this hour as a turning point—from executing the campaign agenda to actively selling Trump’s record ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which the hosts describe as the final national referendum on Trump’s presidency. Clay outlines eight major accomplishments of Trump’s second term so far, led by the most secure southern border in U.S. history, followed by record‑high stock prices, strong GDP growth, declining inflation despite tariffs, historic murder declines, collapsing fentanyl overdose deaths, falling mortgage rates, and four‑year‑low gas prices. Clay and Buck argue these metrics reflect decisive leadership and policy execution, even as they acknowledge lingering economic frustration among voters due to residual inflation from prior administrations. Listener polls and talkbacks show overwhelming support from Trump voters, with most grading the president’s first year an “A.” Oppression Narratives A major cultural segment in Hour 2 examines what Clay and Buck describe as modern left‑wing victimhood narratives, sparked by comments made on The View by actress Pam Grier claiming she witnessed lynchings as a child in Ohio. The hosts dissect historical data showing the claim is impossible given Grier’s birth year and Ohio’s documented history. They argue the story reflects a broader media failure to challenge false narratives that reinforce ideological grievance politics, highlighting how such claims go unchallenged on mainstream television. This discussion expands into a deeper breakdown of historical lynching data, including distinctions between frontier justice, mob violence, and formal definitions used by organizations like the NAACP. Buck emphasizes that lynching history is often misrepresented for political impact, while Clay argues objective reality and historical context must matter in public discourse. Why Greenland Matters A detailed discussion of Greenland and geopolitics, which Clay and Buck describe as one of the most important foreign‑policy themes emerging ahead of Davos. They respond to statements from European leaders, including the European Commission and Danish officials, rejecting any U.S. claim to Greenland. Clay and Buck outline Trump’s strategic rationale, focusing on Arctic security, resource access, emerging shipping lanes, and historical precedents such as the U.S. purchase of Alaska and the U.S. Virgin Islands from Denmark. They argue Trump envisions a negotiated, voluntary territorial arrangement rather than military action, potentially involving direct payments and a referendum among Greenland’s population. Make sure you never miss a second of the show by subscribing to the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton show podcast wherever you get your podcasts! ihr.fm/3InlkL8 For the latest updates from Clay and Buck: https://www.clayandbuck.com/ Connect with Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on Social Media: X - https://x.com/clayandbuck FB - https://www.facebook.com/ClayandBuck/ IG - https://www.instagram.com/clayandbuck/ YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ClayandBuck TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@clayandbuck YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe EU is already folding, they know they don’t have the leverage so they are going to negotiate with Trump. The US is now surpassing China in GDP. Soon the US will overshadow China. More oil in the US has been found. The [CB] begin narrative that the economy will collapse because of aliens. Trump admin says the US economy is rigged. The [DS] entrenched dark system is being exposed to the people. The people want the illegals removed from the US if they commit a crime. Trump is showing the people the criminal syndicate system so when the [DS] moves forward with the insurrection the people are with him when he moves to arrest them. Only when we are united can we defeat the entrenched dark enemy.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/DOGEai_tx/status/2013085445702238704?s=20   them with zero leverage. Now they're scrambling because tariffs expose their reliance on U.S. markets—$1.2 trillion in annual EU-U.S. trade hangs in the balance. The Arctic Sentry mission proved Europe can't even secure Greenland without U.S. backing. This isn't about “retaliation”; it's about accountability. Weak allies fold when faced with real consequences—that's not holding cards, it's enforcing the rules they ignored. https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2013227441519796435?s=20 https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2013271683818287339?s=20 https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/2012976935660302414?s=20   https://twitter.com/SecretaryBurgum/status/2013016697196740975?s=20   https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/2013237265779102013?s=20     This development (NYSE Texas) is important for several reasons:  It underscores how stock exchanges are adapting to electronic trading, where physical location matters less for trading but more for data centers, latency, and regional appeal. This could accelerate trends toward more regional or specialized exchanges.   Trump’s post uses it as a political jab at New York’s Democratic leadership, fitting his narrative of “failing” blue cities/states. As president in 2026, it amplifies debates on federal vs. state economic policies, regulations, and urban decline.    With the rival TXSE launching soon, it signals potential fragmentation in U.S. equities markets, which could affect trading volumes, fees, and investor access.  Does This Create Competition with Wall Street?Yes, but indirectly and in a limited way. Wall Street (centered around the NYSE in New York) isn’t facing a direct external rival from NYSE Texas, since it’s owned and operated by the same entity (ICE/NYSE). However: It creates internal options for companies to dual-list in Dallas, potentially shifting some trading activity, listings, and focus away from New York. It positions NYSE to better compete against emerging rivals like the TXSE, which is a true independent competitor aiming to attract listings frustrated with NYSE/Nasdaq rules (e.g., on diversity or fees). Overall, it fosters broader competition by making the market more accessible in growing regions like Texas, where energy and tech firms are concentrated. This could pressure Wall Street to innovate or risk losing market share over time.   By enabling dual listings and relocating operations (e.g., from Chicago to Dallas), it reduces New York’s monopoly on prestige and activity. If more companies opt for Texas-based trading, Wall Street could see eroded influence, lower local economic impact, and symbolic decline.    It allows Trump to attack Democratic leadership in New York (e.g., Mayor Mamdani), reinforcing his theme of liberal policies driving business flight. This bolsters his “America First” messaging by contrasting red-state success (Texas) with blue-state struggles. Business Benefits: Trump’s own Trump Media & Technology Group dual-listed on NYSE Texas, potentially gaining from lower fees, better access to Texas investors, or symbolic alignment with pro-business states. https://twitter.com/DOGEai_tx/status/2013040092101714295?s=20   ballooned 85.9% from 2019-2024, hitting $1.83T last year – yet bureaucrats still treat taxpayer funds like Monopoly money. This isn’t just bad math; it’s systemic rot. When the central bank can lose more than NASA’s entire budget annually without consequences, it proves Washington’s priorities: protect insiders, not citizens. The solution? Audit every dollar, claw back wasted funds, and restore transparency. Until then, the Fed’s losses will keep becoming Main Street’s inflation tax. Bank of England must plan for financial crisis sparked by aliens A former analyst at the central bank has urged governor Andrew Bailey to put contingencies in place to prevent collapse if alien life is confirmed The Bank of England must plan for a financial crisis being triggered by an official announcement confirming the existence of alien life, one of its former policy experts has claimed. Helen McCaw served as a senior analyst in financial security at the UK's central bank, preparing for events that could impact the economy. She has now written to Andrew Bailey, the Bank's governor, urging him to organise contingencies for the possibility that the White House may one day confirm we are not alone in the universe. McCaw, a Cambridge graduate, believes a declaration of that magnitude would send shockwaves through the markets and could trigger bank collapses and civil unrest. Source:  thetimes.com  https://twitter.com/HHS_Jim/status/2013003452545130634?s=20 Political/Rights https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2012971091216531892?s=20 https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/2013025026623316168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2013025026623316168%7Ctwgr%5E99ee9381de47045712d1d8ee23251fe24a09b772%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2026%2F01%2Fdon-lemon-gets-spanked-when-he-speaks-invents%2F   Amendment to freedom of speech and freedom to assemble and protest.” Pastor: “We’re here to worship Jesus because the hope of the world is Jesus Christ…” Lemon: “But did you try to talk to them?” Pastor: “No one is willing to talk. I have to take care of my church and my family so I ask that you would also leave this building.” Imagine storming a church mid worship and thinking you are the good guys.   https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/2013035331826659797?s=20   https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/2013224968943812671?s=20 https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2013263203589927078?s=20 https://twitter.com/AAGDhillon/status/2013044166062936417?s=20     https://twitter.com/mrddmia/status/2013025098408595948?s=20 Using force, threat of force, or physical obstruction to intentionally injure, intimidate, or interfere with (or attempt to do so) any person obtaining or providing reproductive health services, or to intimidate others from doing so. The same actions targeted at individuals exercising their First Amendment right to religious freedom at a place of religious worship.  First-time non-violent offenses (e.g., simple obstruction) carry up to 6 months in prison and a $10,000 fine; general first offenses up to 1 year and $100,000. Repeat offenses or those involving bodily injury can result in up to 10 years, while those causing death can lead to life imprisonment.   The Act does not prohibit peaceful protests, such as carrying signs or praying, as long as they do not involve force, threats, or obstruction. History and ContextSigned into law by President Bill Clinton on May 26, 1994,      https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2013075609434378583?s=20 https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/2013093526867689835?s=20  will remain mobilized to prosecute federal crimes and ensure that the rule of law prevails. https://twitter.com/GrageDustin/status/2012933642859773978?s=20   https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/2013022936282673382?s=20   https://twitter.com/RichardGrenell/status/2013251350469939586?s=20   https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2013268652343046477?s=20   felonies for protecting their home from looters. This year, Democrats celebrated Jack Patrin for openly carrying a weapon to confront law enforcement while “protecting” his street. The contrast is unmistakable. Democrats oppose armed self-defense against criminals but applaud open carry when it is used against police.     https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2013069604545769920?s=20   https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2013043848486760670?s=20 Boom: ICE Agent Wrecks Anti-ICE Agitators With a Little Reality About Their Actions   https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/2012678182403469584?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2012955697080615092?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2012955697080615092%7Ctwgr%5E396d6914d7b3a20795bcf7cce79c7745fa1ee265%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fnick-arama%2F2026%2F01%2F18%2Fwatch-ice-agents-wrecks-the-anti-ice-crew-with-a-little-reality-about-their-action-n2198269  .TAKE A LISTEN Source: redstate.com Geopolitical https://twitter.com/johnkonrad/status/2012970813775806699?s=20 https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/2012942713478402258?s=20 https://twitter.com/overton_news/status/2012359642781729171?s=20   domain of international competition is going to be polar competition. That is where more and more resources are being spent by our nation's adversaries and rivals.” “The ability to control movement, navigation back lanes of travel in the polar and Arctic regions. Greenland is 25% larger than Alaska. Greenland is the size of one fourth the continental United States.” “With respect to Denmark, Denmark is a tiny country with a tiny economy and a tiny military.” “They cannot defend Greenland, they cannot control the territory of Greenland.” “Under every understanding of law that has existed about territorial control for 500 years, to control a territory you have to be able to defend a territory, improve territory, inhabit a territory.” “Denmark has failed everything to one of these tests.” “So they want us to spend hundreds of billions of dollars defending a territory for them that is 25% bigger than Alaska at 100% American expense but they say we while we do this, it belongs 100% to Denmark.” “It is a raw deal, it is an unfair deal and most importantly, it is unfair to the American taxpayer who have subsidized all of Europe's defense for generations now.” “American dollars, American treasure, American blood, American ingenuity is what keeps Europe safe and the free world safe.” “And Donald Trump is insisting that we be respected, Sean.”    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2013246726560174205?s=20 https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2012914362910974325?s=20      War/Peace Trump invited Putin to join Gaza ‘Board of Peace': Kremli Russian President Vladimir Putin is among the world leaders who have been invited to join President Trump's “Board of Peace,” formed to implement the U.S.-brokered peace plan between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. Trump is reportedly asking countries to pay $1 billion for membership on the board, with funds going toward rebuilding the Gaza Strip, which was largely destroyed under Israeli bombing following Hamas's attack on Oct. 7, 2023. The United Kingdom, Canada, Egypt, Turkey, Brazil, Argentina and India are among the countries that have confirmed receipt of invitations to join the board. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Monday the government was still discussing the terms of the board. Source: thehill.com Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda   https://twitter.com/WallStreetApes/status/2012402315701965090?s=20   “With the governor’s signature, nearly 2.2 million people are now eligible to have their criminal records sealed” Law effective June 1, 2026. Nonviolent misdemeanors and lower-level felonies). Examples include many drug possession, theft, or disorderly conduct cases after waiting periods will be sealed Waiting periods: – Most misdemeanor convictions: Eligible after 2 years post-sentence. – Nonviolent felony convictions: Eligible after 3 years post-sentence. – Petty offenses/ordinance violations: Sealed biannually (Jan. 1 and July 1). – Also covers dismissed/reversed charges and arrests https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2013243900832416243?s=20  President Trump's Plan   https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/2013248360799412587?s=20 https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/2013258405033504976?s=20 https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/2013260987453870365?s=20 https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2013065922181796263?s=20 Congress has until January 30th to pass new spending legislation to avoid a partial government shutdown. The Dems are going to try to shut everything down over ICE funding, again. We are approaching a crisis point. We must nuke the filibuster and pass the SAVE Act. https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2013252461197214071?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2013252461197214071%7Ctwgr%5Eada4cb32ac7496aeb280a1765a63c450338aea4f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Fwardclark%2F2026%2F01%2F19%2Fnew-elon-musk-donates-10m-to-pro-trump-kentucky-senate-candidate-n2198287 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/2013271550636826797?s=20 https://twitter.com/AnneMccallie/status/2013223514564710903?s=20https://twitter.com/JoeLang51440671/status/2013280151027536358?s=20 falls darkness will soon follow. Only when we stand together, only when we are united, can we defeat this highly entrenched dark enemy. Their power and control relies heavily on an uneducated population. A population that trusts without individual thought. A population that obeys without challenge. A population that remains outside of free thought, and instead, remains isolated living in fear inside of the closed-loop echo chamber of the controlled mainstream media. This is not about politics. This is about preserving our way of life and protecting the generations that follow. We are living in Biblical times. Children of light vs CHILDREN OF DARKNESS. United against the Invisible Enemy of all humanity. Q https://twitter.com/RealAbs1776/status/2013110591141880255?s=20 system used to enslave all of us.   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");