Podcasts about gdp

Gene Marks discusses the US economy, noting that third-quarter GDP growth is estimated near 4%, contrasting sharply with record-low consumer sentiment in a "tale of two economies" where salaried workers receiving pay raises of 5–7% are outpacing 3% inflation and continuing to spend, while hourly workers struggle. Despite job growth in construction, leading indicators like the architectural billings index show contraction for 11 months. In technology, 88% of major companies are adopting artificial intelligence, though scaling remains limited, with AI already replacing low-level programmers and enhancing customer service. Agentic AI, capable of performing complex tasks, is predicted to impact fields like accounting and marketing by 2027–2028. However, Marks argues that most current major corporate layoffs stem from typical corporate bloat and mismanagement rather than AI, at least not yet. 1947 PAKISTAN

SHOW 11-21-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT UKRAINE FIRST HOUR 9-915 HEADLINE: Las Vegas Shifts Focus with Formula 1 and Lower-End Tourism; California Politics Hit by Indictments GUEST: Jeff Bliss Jeff Bliss reports that the Formula 1 race on the Las Vegas city circuit is attracting major spectacle and high-end tourism, though the city is also attempting recovery by catering to lower-income demographics, evidenced by positive activity at the Excalibur Casino, while facing major competition from a new Indian casino near Bakersfield, California, operated by the Tahone tribe and twice the size of Caesars Palace. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom's former chief of staff, Dana Williamson, and four others were indicted on 23 counts of fraud. Additionally, an investigation into the Palisades fire revealed that state workers ordered the LA Fire Department to back off a previously burned area that rekindled, allegedly to protect endangered plants. 915-930 HEADLINE: Industrial Policy and Tariffs Lack Coherence; Removal of Food Tariffs Implies Inflationary EffectGUEST: Veronique De Rugy Veronique De Rugy discusses US industrial policy, noting the trade deficit has increased despite tariffs, and the administration's decision to remove tariffs on food items—goods not produced domestically—is seen as an implicit admission that tariffs contribute to the "affordability crisis" because tariffs are a tax primarily borne by American consumers. The goals behind tariffs have shifted from fighting China to raising revenue, and the largest tariff exemption is for computer parts, indicating an understanding that tariffs could contradict other goals like energy abundance. De Rugyargues that US economic power stems from innovation and a willingness to invest, making industrial policy involving tariffs and seeking foreign investment largely unnecessary and potentially harmful. 930-945 HEADLINE: Mixed US Economic Signals: Strong GDP Contrasts Low Consumer Sentiment; AI Adoption Increases GUEST: Gene Marks Gene Marks discusses the US economy, noting that third-quarter GDP growth is estimated near 4%, contrasting sharply with record-low consumer sentiment in a "tale of two economies" where salaried workers receiving pay raises of 5–7% are outpacing 3% inflation and continuing to spend, while hourly workers struggle. Despite job growth in construction, leading indicators like the architectural billings index show contraction for 11 months. In technology, 88% of major companies are adopting artificial intelligence, though scaling remains limited, with AI already replacing low-level programmers and enhancing customer service. Agentic AI, capable of performing complex tasks, is predicted to impact fields like accounting and marketing by 2027–2028. However, Marks argues that most current major corporate layoffs stem from typical corporate bloat and mismanagement rather than AI, at least not yet. 945-10 SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: Lancaster County Economy Booms Despite Low Consumer Confidence; Local Entrepreneurs ThriveGUEST: Jim McTague Jim McTague reports that the economy in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, is strong, suggesting it mirrors the greater US economy despite reports of low consumer confidence, observing robust traffic at tourist destinations like Kitchen Kettle Village, a shopping locale established in 1954, with spending largely supported by well-off boomers. Local entrepreneurs are experiencing great success—a dealer selling eclectic electric lamps in Park City Mall is already earning $4,500 per week at the start of the holiday season, and high volume at Costco, where the Amish are major buyers, further indicates available disposable income. McTague concludes that the real economy on Main Street is strong and likely headed for a blockbuster Christmas season. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: Climate Change Threatens Iconic Italian Cheeses; Southern Drought Reduces Milk Production Quality GUEST: Lorenzo Fiori Lorenzo Fiori reports that climate change is threatening Italian food production, particularly cheese, due to drought and heat waves in the south, especially the Puglia region, where stressed cows are reducing milk production and impacting specialty cheeses like mozzarella and burrata. Milk cannot be shipped from the north because local water and hay are essential to the unique flavor of southern cheese. Fiori emphasizes that Italian food is a famous brand precisely because it belongs to its territory, criticizing pre-prepared sauces found in Brussels as inauthentic carbonara, which must be made fresh. In Milan, Christmas preparations are underway, with shop windows decorated festively and street lights scheduled to be switched on December 7th. 1030-1045 HEADLINE: Private Space Advances (Blue Origin, Rocket Lab) Challenge NASA SLS, EU Space Law CriticizedGUEST: Bob Zimmerman Bob Zimmerman reports that Blue Origin's New Glenn orbital rocket successfully completed its second launch, including landing the first stage and demonstrating reuse capability comparable to Falcon 9. New Glenn, larger than Falcon 9, is scheduled for upgrades with more powerful BE4 and BE3U engines, making it nearly comparable to NASA's costly and expendable SLS rocket. Rocket Lab set a new annual launch record with 15 successful orbital launches, surpassing Russia's frequency, and has conducted suborbital HASTE launches for military testing. India is upgrading its largest LVM rocket's upper stage for multiple restarts, essential for its space station and crewed missions. The US State Department opposes a proposed European Union space law seeking to impose EU regulations on companies from other nations, potentially discrediting the EU if passed. Finally, NASA has hired startup Catalyst to attempt a daring robotic rescue of the decaying Swift telescope. 1045-1100 THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 HEADLINE: McFaul: Autocrats Are on the Rise; US Must Unite Allies and Attract Global Talent to CompeteGUEST: Michael McFaul Michael McFaul's book Autocrats Versus Democrats argues that Putinism is driven by anti-Western ideology, making Putin a risk-taker, and McFaul believes the US erred by lacking a robust response and failing to provide arms after the 2014 Crimea invasion, stressing that helping Ukraine win is essential to inspire Russian democrats. He asserts that the appeal of autocracy is growing globally and advises that the US must align democracies against autocrats while advocating for human rights, citing the need to support imprisoned publisher Jimmy Lai. Long-term strategy requires the US and its allies to unite, as they are collectively stronger economically and militarily than autocracies, and McFaulstrongly recommends attracting international talent by reversing restrictive immigration policies, calling it a great strength the US is currently losing. 1115-1130 1130-1145 1145-1200 FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 HEADLINE: US-Saudi Nuclear Deal Raises Proliferation Concerns; Military Micro-Reactors Retreat from Front Lines GUEST: Henry Sokolski Henry Sokolski states that Saudi Crown Prince MBS's goal is to obtain a bomb option, and while the new US-Saudi agreement does not include assistance with nuclear fuel production, a reactor still provides the necessary "cover" used by countries like Iran. MBS has made clear he will acquire a bomb if Iran does, regardless of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Sokolski also discusses the US military's Janus program for small reactors, initially conceived for vulnerable front-line bases but pushed back to remote areas like Alaska and the lower 48 due to concerns about drones and vulnerability. Finally, the US may be moving toward nuclear socialism—government ownership of commercial reactors, potentially funded by Japan—to encourage commercialization even without secured market contracts. 1215-1230 1230-1245 HEADLINE: Scenario: Russia Attacks NATO Member Estonia; Europe's "Kantian Dreams" and Lack of Readiness Prevent Article 5 Response GUEST: Jakub Grygiel Jakub Grygiel analyzes the German book If Russia Wins, which outlines a scenario where Russia attacks NATO member Estonia around 2028 following a stalled conflict in Ukraine, capturing Narva and an island before halting its advance and creating confusion within NATO. Europeans, living in "Kantian dreams of eternal peace," prioritize a quick end to the conflict and fear escalation, and the scenario posits that the US President decides a World War III over a "tiny piece of land" is not worthwhile, leading Estonia to forego invoking NATO's Article 5 out of fear of alliance rejection. Grygielnotes that decades of demilitarization leave Europe unprepared for war, highlighting that US reinforcements could take 45 days to move and societies lack the political will to fund necessary rearmament.

“They're not voting left or right—they're voting for whoever fixes their future.”

Is the bubble bursting? Despite a big earnings beat from Nvidia, concerns about overheated AI valuations are mounting. Jonas Goltermann weighs the risks that the equities rally is fading. We also look at what to expect from Rachel Reeves' Budget after an unusually turbulent build-up, and the possible economic fallout. And Neil Shearing considers what this week's Trump-Mohammed bin Salman meeting signals about Saudi Arabia's position in a fracturing global economy.Analysis and events referenced in this episode:UK Drop-In: The Autumn Budget – What's next for the economy and markets?What if the AI stock market boom turned to bust?Why we aren't worried about US tech valuationsMbS's Washington trip tips the balance in US's favour

What is the difference between Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes? Diabetes affects more than 300,000 people in New Zealand and costs the country $2.1 billion a year in health costs (0.67% of GDP!). It occurs when the pancreas does not produce enough insulin to control blood sugar. Type 1: Usually begins in younger people; an autoimmune reaction destroys the pancreas so it can't make insulin. Type 2: More common with age; the pancreas wears out over time and doesn't produce enough insulin. What is happening with Type 2 diabetes in New Zealand? Over 250,000 New Zealanders have Type 2 diabetes, previously seen mostly in people over 50. Over the past 25 years, it is increasingly occurring in younger people – even those in their early teens and children. It's particularly effecting Māori, Pasifika, and Asian young people; this pattern was not seen 30 years ago. This is a new and concerning trend. Why is this occurring? The exact cause is unclear, but it is seen worldwide, especially in Indigenous populations. It is complex – caused by more than just lifestyle. Likely involves genetics, strong family history, maternal diabetes in pregnancy, and some lifestyle factors. More research is needed. Why should we be worried? Early-onset Type 2 diabetes seems to have a more aggressive course. Complications such as kidney disease, heart disease, and strokes occur earlier. It's a significant cost to the health system, and an even greater cost to patients, whānau, and communities. What can we do about it? Improve awareness and education. Provide strong wrap-around support for young people with diabetes. Know the symptoms and see your GP – weight loss, tiredness, frequent urination, and excessive thirst. Remember: diabetes can occur at any age. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Singapore’s economy has exceeded expectations, with MTI upgrading its 2025 GDP forecast to around 4.0% after a strong Q3 performance led by manufacturing, wholesale trade, and finance. Barnabas Gan, Group Chief Economist & Head, Market Research, RHB Bank breaks down the key drivers behind this growth, the role of AI-related electronics and biomedical manufacturing, and what lies ahead for 2026 as global trade faces new headwinds.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

GDP, the Constitution, and Production The U.S. is NOT a democracy. It is a Constitutional Republic. We talk about what that means. We talk about government promises, red tape, and the end of the shutdown. We also talk about GDP and how it is not a good measure of actual production, especially when it adds in government spending. Where do our tax dollars go? Frequently they are spent on things we would not want our money spent on. What are you doing to protect yourself financially? Sponsors: American Gold Exchange Our dealer for precious metals & the exclusive dealer of Real Power Family silver rounds (which we finally got in!!!). Get your first, or next bullion order from American Gold Exchange like we do. Tell them the Real Power Family sent you! Click on this link to get a FREE Starters Guide. Or Click Here to order our new Real Power Family silver rounds. 1 Troy Oz 99.99% Fine Silver Abolish Property Taxes in Ohio: www.AxOHTax.com  Get more information about abolishing all property taxes in Ohio. Our Links: www.RealPowerFamily.com Info@ClearSkyTrainer.com 833-Be-Do-Have (833-233-6428)

My fellow pro-growth/progress/abundance Up Wingers in America and around the world:What really gets AI optimists excited isn't the prospect of automating customer service departments or human resources. Imagine, rather, what might happen to the pace of scientific progress if AI becomes a super research assistant. Tom Davidson's new paper, How Quick and Big Would a Software Intelligence Explosion Be?, explores that very scenario.Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I talk with Davidson about what it would mean for automated AI researchers to rapidly improve their own algorithms, thus creating a self-reinforcing loop of innovation. We talk about the economic effects of self-improving AI research and how close we are to that reality.Davidson is a senior research fellow at Forethought, where he explores AI and explosive growth. He was previously a senior research fellow at Open Philanthropy and a research scientist at the UK government's AI Security Institute.In This Episode* Making human minds (1:43)* Theory to reality (6:45)* The world with automated research (10:59)* Considering constraints (16:30)* Worries and what-ifs (19:07)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. Making human minds (1:43). . . you don't have to build any more computer chips, you don't have to build any more fabs . . . In fact, you don't have to do anything at all in the physical world.Pethokoukis: A few years ago, you wrote a paper called “Could Advanced AI Drive Explosive Economic Growth?,” which argued that growth could accelerate dramatically if AI would start generating ideas the way human researchers once did. In your view, population growth historically powered kind of an ideas feedback loop. More people meant more researchers meant more ideas, rising incomes, but that loop broke after the demographic transition in the late-19th century but you suggest that AI could restart it: more ideas, more output, more AI, more ideas. Does this new paper in a way build upon that paper? “How quick and big would a software intelligence explosion be?”The first paper you referred to is about the biggest-picture dynamic of economic growth. As you said, throughout the long run history, when we produced more food, the population increased. That additional output transferred itself into more people, more workers. These days that doesn't happen. When GDP goes up, that doesn't mean people have more kids. In fact, the demographic transition, the richer people get, the fewer kids they have. So now we've got more output, we're getting even fewer people as a result, so that's been blocked.This first paper is basically saying, look, if we can manufacture human minds or human-equivalent minds in any way, be it by building more computer chips, or making better computer chips, or any way at all, then that feedback loop gets going again. Because if we can manufacture more human minds, then we can spend output again to create more workers. That's the first paper.The second paper double clicks on one specific way that we can use output to create more human minds. It's actually, in a way, the scariest way because it's the way of creating human minds which can happen the quickest. So this is the way where you don't have to build any more computer chips, you don't have to build any more fabs, as they're called, these big factories that make computer chips. In fact, you don't have to do anything at all in the physical world.It seems like most of the conversation has been about how much investment is going to go into building how many new data centers, and that seems like that is almost the entire conversation, in a way, at the moment. But you're not looking at compute, you're looking at software.Exactly, software. So the idea is you don't have to build anything. You've already got loads of computer chips and you just make the algorithms that run the AIs on those computer chips more efficient. This is already happening, but it isn't yet a big deal because AI isn't that capable. But already, one year out, Epoch, this AI forecasting organization, estimates that just in one year, it becomes 10 times to 1000 times cheaper to run the same AI system. Just wait 12 months, and suddenly, for the same budget, you are able to run 10 times as many AI systems, or maybe even 1000 times as many for their most aggressive estimate. As I said, not a big deal today, but if we then develop an AI system which is better than any human at doing research, then now, in 10 months, you haven't built anything, but you've got 10 times as many researchers that you can set to work or even more than that. So then we get this feedback loop where you make some research progress, you improve your algorithms, now you've got loads more researchers, you set them all to work again, finding even more algorithmic improvements. So today we've got maybe a few hundred people that are advancing state-of-the-art AI algorithms.I think they're all getting paid a billion dollars a person, too.Exactly. But maybe we can 10x that initially by having them replaced by AI researchers that do the same thing. But then those AI researchers improve their own algorithms. Now you have 10x as many again, you have them building more computer chips, you're just running them more efficiently, and then the cycle continues. You're throwing more and more of these AI researchers at AI progress itself, and the algorithms are improving in what might be a very powerful feedback loop.In this case, it seems me that you're not necessarily talking about artificial general intelligence. This is certainly a powerful intelligence, but it's narrow. It doesn't have to do everything, it doesn't have to play chess, it just has to be able to do research.It's certainly not fully general. You don't need it to be able to control a robot body. You don't need it to be able to solve the Riemann hypothesis. You don't need it to be able to even be very persuasive or charismatic to a human. It's not narrow, I wouldn't say, it has to be able to do literally anything that AI researchers do, and that's a wide range of tasks: They're coding, they're communicating with each other, they're managing people, they are planning out what to work on, they are thinking about reviewing the literature. There's a fairly wide range of stuff. It's extremely challenging. It's some of the hardest work in the world to do, so I wouldn't say it's now, but it's not everything. It's some kind of intermediate level of generality in between a mere chess algorithm that just does chess and the kind of AGI that can literally do anything.Theory to reality (6:45)I think it's a much smaller gap for AI research than it is for many other parts of the economy.I think people who are cautiously optimistic about AI will say something like, “Yeah, I could see the kind of intelligence you're referring to coming about within a decade, but it's going to take a couple of big breakthroughs to get there.” Is that true, or are we actually getting pretty close?Famously, predicting the future of technology is very, very difficult. Just a few years before people invented the nuclear bomb, famous, very well-respected physicists were saying, “It's impossible, this will never happen.” So my best guess is that we do need a couple of fairly non-trivial breakthroughs. So we had the start of RL training a couple of years ago, became a big deal within the language model paradigm. I think we'll probably need another couple of breakthroughs of that kind of size.We're not talking a completely new approach, throw everything out, but we're talking like, okay, we need to extend the current approach in a meaningfully different way. It's going to take some inventiveness, it's going to take some creativity, we're going to have to try out a few things. I think, probably, we'll need that to get to the researcher that can fully automate OpenAI, is a nice way of putting it — OpenAI doesn't employ any humans anymore, they've just got AIs there.There's a difference between what a model can do on some benchmark versus becoming actually productive in the real world. That's why, while all the benchmark stuff is interesting, the thing I pay attention to is: How are businesses beginning to use this technology? Because that's the leap. What is that gap like, in your scenario, versus an AI model that can do a theoretical version of the lab to actually be incorporated in a real laboratory?It's definitely a gap. I think it's a pretty big gap. I think it's a much smaller gap for AI research than it is for many other parts of the economy. Let's say we are talking about car manufacturing and you're trying to get an AI to do everything that happens there. Man, it's such a messy process. There's a million different parts of the supply chain. There's all this tacit knowledge and all the human workers' minds. It's going to be really tough. There's going to be a very big gap going from those benchmarks to actually fully automating the supply chain for cars.For automating what OpenAI does, there's still a gap, but it's much smaller, because firstly, all of the work is virtual. Everyone at OpenAI could, in principle, work remotely. Their top research scientists, they're just on a computer all day. They're not picking up bricks and doing stuff like that. So also that already means it's a lot less messy. You get a lot less of that kind of messy world reality stuff slowing down adoption. And also, a lot of it is coding, and coding is almost uniquely clean in that, for many coding tasks, you can define clearly defined metrics for success, and so that makes AI much better. You can just have a go. Did AI succeed in the test? If not, try something else or do a gradient set update.That said, there's still a lot of messiness here, as any coder will know, when you're writing good code, it's not just about whether it does the function that you've asked it to do, it needs to be well-designed, it needs to be modular, it needs to be maintainable. These things are much harder to evaluate, and so AIs often pass our benchmarks because they can do the function that you asked it to do, the code runs, but they kind of write really spaghetti code — code that no one wants to look at, that no one can understand, and so no company would want to use that.So there's still going to be a pretty big benchmark-to-reality gap, even for OpenAI, and I think that's one of the big uncertainties in terms of, will this happen in three years versus will this happen in 10 years, or even 15 years?Since you brought up the timeline, what's your guess? I didn't know whether to open with that question or conclude with that question — we'll stick it right in the middle of our chat.Great. Honestly, my best guess about this does change more often than I would like it to, which I think tells us, look, there's still a state of flux. This is just really something that's very hard to know about. Predicting the future is hard. My current best guess is it's about even odds that we're able to fully automate OpenAI within the next 10 years. So maybe that's a 50-50.The world with AI research automation (10:59). . . I'm talking about 30 percent growth every year. I think it gets faster than that. If you want to know how fast it eventually gets, you can think about the question of how fast can a kind of self-replicating system double itself?So then what really would be the impact of that kind of AI research automation? How would you go about quantifying that kind of acceleration? What does the world look like?Yeah, so many possibilities, but I think what strikes me is that there is a plausible world where it is just way, way faster than almost everyone is expecting it to be. So that's the world where you fully automate OpenAI, and then we get that feedback loop that I was talking about earlier where AIs make their algorithms way more efficient, now you've got way more of them, then they make their algorithms way more efficient again, now they're way smarter. Now they're thinking a hundred times faster. The feedback loop continues and maybe within six months you now have a billion superintelligent AIs running on this OpenAI data center. The combined cognitive abilities of all these AIs outstrips the whole of the United States, outstrips anything we've seen from any kind of company or entity before, and they can all potentially be put towards any goal that OpenAI wants to. And then there's, of course, the risk that OpenAI's lost control of these systems, often discussed, in which case these systems could all be working together to pursue a particular goal. And so what we're talking about here is really a huge amount of power. It's a threat to national security for any government in which this happens, potentially. It is a threat to everyone if we lose control of these systems, or if the company that develops them uses them for some kind of malicious end. And, in terms of economic impacts, I personally think that that again could happen much more quickly than people think, and we can get into that.In the first paper we mentioned, it was kind of a thought experiment, but you were really talking about moving the decimal point in GDP growth, instead of talking about two and three percent, 20 and 30 percent. Is that the kind of world we're talking about?I speak to economists a lot, and —They hate those kinds of predictions, by the way.Obviously, they think I'm crazy. Not all of them. There are economists that take it very seriously. I think it's taken more seriously than everyone else realizes. It's like it's a bit embarrassing, at the moment, to admit that you take it seriously, but there are a few really senior economists who absolutely know their stuff. They're like, “Yep, this checks out. I think that's what's going to happen.” And I've had conversation with them where they're like, “Yeah, I think this is going to happen.” But the really loud, dominant view where I think people are a little bit scared to speak out against is they're like, “Obviously this is sci-fi.”One analogy I like to give to people who are very, very confident that this is all sci-fi and it's rubbish is to imagine that we were sitting there in the year 1400, imagine we had an economics professor who'd been studying the rate of economic growth, and they've been like, “Yeah, we've always had 0.1 percent growth every single year throughout history. We've never seen anything higher.” And then there was some kind of futurist economist rogue that said, “Actually, I think that if I extrapolate the curves in this way and we get this kind of technology, maybe we could have one percent growth.” And then all the other economists laugh at them, tell them they're insane – that's what happened. In 1400, we'd never had growth that was at all fast, and then a few hundred years later, we developed industrial technology, we started that feedback loop, we were investing more and more resources in scientific progress and in physical capital, and we did see much faster growth.So I think it can be useful to try and challenge economists and say, “Okay, I know it sounds crazy, but history was crazy. This crazy thing happened where growth just got way, way faster. No one would've predicted it. You would not have predicted it.” And I think being in that mindset can encourage people to be like, “Yeah, okay. You know what? Maybe if we do get AI that's really that powerful, it can really do everything, and maybe it is possible.”But to answer your question, yeah, I'm talking about 30 percent growth every year. I think it gets faster than that. If you want to know how fast it eventually gets, you can think about the question of how fast can a kind of self-replicating system double itself? So ultimately, what the economy is going to be like is it's going to have robots and factories that are able to fully create new versions of themselves. Everything you need: the roads, the electricity, the robots, the buildings, all of that will be replicated. And so you can look at actually biology and say, do we have any examples of systems which fully replicate themselves? How long does it take? And if you look at rats, for example, they're able to double the number of rats by grabbing resources from the environment, and giving birth, and whatnot. The doubling time is about six weeks for some types of rats. So that's an example of here's a physical system — ultimately, everything's made of physics — a physical system that has some intelligence that's able to go out into the world, gather resources, replicate itself. The doubling time is six weeks.Now, who knows how long it'll take us to get to AI that's that good? But when we do, you could see the whole physical economy, maybe a part that humans aren't involved with, a whole automated city without any humans just doubling itself every few weeks. If that happens, and the amount of stuff we're able to reduce as a civilization is doubling again on the order of weeks. And, in fact, there are some animals that double faster still, in days, but that's the kind of level of craziness. Now we're talking about 1000 percent growth, at that point. We don't know how crazy it could get, but I think we should take even the really crazy possibilities, we shouldn't fully rule them out.Considering constraints (16:30)I really hope people work less. If we get this good future, and the benefits are shared between all . . . no one should work. But that doesn't stop growth . . .There's this great AI forecast chart put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and I think its main forecast — the one most economists would probably agree with — has a line showing AI improving GDP by maybe two tenths of a percent. And then there are two other lines: one is more or less straight up, and the other one is straight down, because in the first, AI created a utopia, and in the second, AI gets out of control and starts killing us, and whatever. So those are your three possibilities.If we stick with the optimistic case for a moment, what constraints do you see as most plausible — reduced labor supply from rising incomes, social pushback against disruption, energy limits, or something else?Briefly, the ones you've mentioned, people not working, 100 percent. I really hope people work less. If we get this good future, and the benefits are shared between all — which isn't guaranteed — if we get that, then yeah, no one should work. But that doesn't stop growth, because when AI and robots can do everything that humans do, you don't need humans in the loop anymore. That whole thing is just going and kind of self-replicating itself and making as many goods as services as we want. Sure, if you want your clothes to be knitted by a human, you're in trouble, then your consumption is stuck. Bad luck. If you're happy to consume goods and services produced by AI systems or robots, fine if no one wants to work.Pushback: I think, for me, this is the biggest one. Obviously, the economy doubling every year is very scary as a thought. Tech progress will be going much faster. Imagine if you woke up and, over the course of the year, you go from not having any telephones at all in the world, to everyone's on their smartphones and social media and all the apps. That's a transition that took decades. If that happened in a year, that would be very disconcerting.Another example is the development of nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons were developed over a number of years. If that happened in a month, or two months, that could be very dangerous. There'd be much less time for different countries, different actors to figure out how they're going to handle it. So I think pushback is the strongest one that we might as a society choose, “Actually, this is insane. We're going to go slower than we could.” That requires, potentially, coordination, but I think there would be broad support for some degree of coordination there.Worries and what-ifs (19:07)If suddenly no one has any jobs, what will we want to do with ourselves? That's a very, very consequential transition for the nature of human society.I imagine you certainly talk with people who are extremely gung-ho about this prospect. What is the common response you get from people who are less enthusiastic? Do they worry about a future with no jobs? Maybe they do worry about the existential kinds of issues. What's your response to those people? And how much do you worry about those things?I think there are loads of very worrying things that we're going to be facing. One class of pushback, which I think is very common, is worries about employment. It's a source of income for all of us, employment, but also, it's a source of pride, it's a source of meaning. If suddenly no one has any jobs, what will we want to do with ourselves? That's a very, very consequential transition for the nature of human society. I think people aren't just going to be down to just do it. I think people are scared about three AI companies literally now taking all the revenues that all of humanity used to be earning. It is naturally a very scary prospect. So that's one kind of pushback, and I'm sympathetic with it.I think that there are solutions, if we find a way to tax AI systems, which isn't necessarily easy, because it's very easy to move physical assets between countries. It's a lot easier to tax labor than capital already when rich people can move their assets around. We're going to have the same problem with AI, but if we can find a way to tax it, and we maintain a good democratic country, and we can just redistribute the wealth broadly, it can be solved. So I think it's a big problem, but it is doable.Then there's the problem of some people want to stop this now because they're worried about AI killing everyone. Their literally worry is that everyone will be dead because superintelligent AI will want that to happen. I think there's a real risk there. It's definitely above one percent, in my opinion. I wouldn't go above 10 percent, myself, but I think it's very scary, and that's a great reason to slow things down. I personally don't want to stop quite yet. I think you want to stop when the AI is a bit more powerful and a bit more useful than it is today so it can kind of help us figure out what to do about all of this crazy stuff that's coming.On what side of that line is AI as an AI researcher?That's a really great question. Should we stop? I think it's very hard to stop just after you've got the AI researcher AI, because that's when it's suddenly really easy to go very, very fast. So my out-of-the-box proposal here, which is probably very flawed, would be: When we're within a few spits distance — not spitting distance, but if you did that three times, and we can see we're almost at that AI automating OpenAI — then you pause, because you're not going to accidentally then go all the way. It is actually still a little bit a fair distance away, but it's actually still, at that point, probably a very powerful AI that can really help.Then you pause and do what?Great question. So then you pause, and you use your AI systems to help you firstly solve the problem of AI alignment, make extra, double sure that every time we increase the notch of AI capabilities, the AI is still loyal to humanity, not to its own kind of secret goals.Secondly, you solve the problem of, how are we going to make sure that no one person in government or no one CEO of an AI company ensures that this whole AI army is loyal to them, personally? How are we going to ensure that everyone, the whole world gets influenced over what this AI is ultimately programmed to do? That's the second problem.And then there's just a whole host of other things: unemployment that we've talked about, competition between different countries, US and China, there's a whole host of other things that I think you want to research on, figure out, get consensus on, and then slowly ratchet up the capabilities in what is now a very safe and controlled way.What else should we be working on? What are you working on next?One problem I'm excited about is people have historically worried about AI having its own goals. We need to make it loyal to humanity. But as we've got closer, it's become increasingly obvious, “loyalty to humanity” is very vague. What specifically do you want the AI to be programmed to do? I mean, it's not programmed, it's grown, but if it were programmed, if you're writing a rule book for AI, some organizations have employee handbooks: Here's the philosophy of the organization, here's how you should behave. Imagine you're doing that for the AI, but you're going super detailed, exactly how you want your AI assistant to behave in all kinds of situations. What should that be? Essentially, what should we align the AI to? Not any individual person, probably following the law, probably loads of other things. I think basically designing what is the character of this AI system is a really exciting question, and if we get that right, maybe the AI can then help us solve all these other problems.Maybe you have no interest in science fiction, but is there any film, TV, book that you think is useful for someone in your position to be aware of, or that you find useful in any way? Just wondering.I think there's this great post called “AI 2027,” which lays out a concrete scenario for how AI could go wrong or how maybe it could go right. I would recommend that. I think that's the only thing that's coming top of mind. I often read a lot of the stuff I read is I read a lot of LessWrong, to be honest. There's a lot of stuff from there that I don't love, but a lot of new ideas, interesting content there.Any fiction?I mean, I read fiction, but honestly, I don't really love the AI fiction that I've read because often it's quite unrealistic, and so I kind of get a bit overly nitpicky about it. But I mean, yeah, there's this book called Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, which I read maybe 10 years ago, which I thought was pretty fun.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised Faster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe

Amit walked away from being President of 1-800-Flowers after scaling it from $500M to $2B because he saw smart people trapped in dumb systems. His insight: half of global GDP is 90% manual work—salespeople entering data instead of selling, technicians reading manuals instead of fixing. He started Instalily in Spring 2023 when everyone said AI agents were impossible. Instead of replacing workers, he built AI that finds signals in noise—telling each salesperson exactly which deal to focus on right now. The results are insane: $1M ARR within months, tripling revenue year two, delivering $150M+ value to single customers. His secret? While competitors pitched flashy demos, Amit's team attended 100+ trade shows to understand actual operator pain. They hired fresh AI grads who "shipped fearlessly" instead of senior talent stuck in old paradigms.Why You Should Listen:How "operator market fit" beats product market fit for enterprise salesThe GTM playbook that hit $1M ARR in months by attending 100+ trade showsWhy hiring AI-native grads crushed hiring senior talent for AI productsHow focusing on time-to-value unlocked enterprise dealsThe counterintuitive approach: augment the best parts of jobs, not the worstKeywords:startup podcast, startup podcast for founders, Instalily, Amit Shah, AI agents, enterprise sales, operator market fit, B2B SaaS, AI automation, vertical SaaS00:00:00 Intro00:04:42 Leaving 1-800-Flowers00:09:55 Starting when everyone said AI agents were impossible00:11:51 The vision—amplify the best parts of work, not replace the worst00:16:59 Operator market fit over product market fit00:20:48 Landing first $2B enterprise customers 00:29:00 The 100+ trade show GTM strategy that actually worked00:33:02 Why they hired AI-native grads instead of senior talent00:34:51 Hitting $1M ARR in monthsRetrySend me a message to let me know what you think!

Tonight's BizNews Briefing spotlights South Africa's rising strategic importance, with the EU naming the country its first stop in a new critical minerals supply push. Locally, Investec's latest results show SA delivering stronger returns than the UK, while an urgent court showdown looms as the JSE challenges allegedly fake emails. Also in focus: a 70% municipal failure rate in Eskom's debt relief scheme, and Nvidia's record-smashing results as the tech giant reaches a valuation 12 times SA's GDP.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with markets investors are looking sceptically at restarted US data and the outstanding Nvidia result.First, the American initial jobless claims reporting has restarted, and they say 216,700 new people filed for these benefits last week, up from 214,000 in the same week a year ago. There are now 1.727 mln people on these benefits, up from 1.66 mln a year ago and the highest since 2021.And for the record, they released their September non-farm payrolls report overnight too, claiming +119,000 new jobs created in the month. The non-seasonally adjusted data records a rise from the same month a year earlier of +1.2 mln, the least year-on-year rise since the pandemic. The related wage growth data was weak. And they also announced that they will not be releasing an October report.Meanwhile, the Philly Fed factory survey for October weakened again, including for factory orders. Inflation pressures were reported as higher. Despite all this extended depressed state, these firms say they are optimistic about the future.It was the inverse story for the same report from the Kansas City Fed. Current conditions were mildly positive and stable, cost pressures eased, but future prospects are less enthusiastic. New order levels dipped here too, but only slightly.In Canada, their October PPI came in +6.0% higher than year-ago levels, a rise. They may be surviving the trade war punishment from the US, but it is coming with higher costs.In Taiwan, their October export orders rose +25% from the same month a year ago. As high as that is, it just continues the stellar expansion they have reported all year.In China, they say they are going to extend their trade-in subsidy program, to keep their modest consumer spending levels underpinned.And as widely anticipated, the People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a sixth consecutive month in November. But there is increasing talk that they will be [pressured into reducing them at some stage to weigh against below-target growth.In Europe, German producer prices fell in October, down -1.8% from the same month a year ago.In Australia, the IMF told them that they should hike their GST, abandon their tax cuts, and spend more carefully if it wants to keep a fiscally sustainable economy.And Australia released its GDP by State (they call it GSP). On a real basis for the year to June 2025, NSW expanded +0.9%, Victoria by +1.1%, Queensland by +2.2%, South Australia by +1.0% and Western Australia by +1.3% from the equivalent 2023/24 year. The national rise was +1.4%. But on a per capita basis, only Queensland and Tasmania recorded gains. Nationally it was a -0.3% decline per capita.Global freight rates for container cargoes were unchanged over the past week, to sit -46% lower than year ago levels. But the weekly change masks rising outbound China to Europe rates, while outbound China to the US rates are falling. Meanwhile, bulk cargo freight rates rose +11% over the past week and are now +39% higher than a year ago.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.11%, unchanged from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$4055/oz, and down -US$16 from this time yesterday.American oil prices have softened another -50 USc from yesterday to be just under US$59/bbl, with the international Brent price little-changed and still under US$63.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at just on 56 USc, and unchanged from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 86.8 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 48.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 60.7, and little-changed from yesterday, and still its lowest since July 2009.The bitcoin price starts today at US$87,411 and down another -2.4% from yesterday and -11% below year-ago levels. In fact, it is falling as we publish. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.4%.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

VOV1 - Dữ liệu được dự báo đóng góp 20%GDP vào năm 2030, là nền tảng cho các dịch vụ số, chính phủ số và doanh nghiệp số. Tuy nhiên, khi dữ liệu ngày càng có giá trị, thì các rủi ro liên quan đến tấn công mạng ngày càng tăng lên. Do đó, phát triển kinh tế dữ liệu cần phải đảm bảo an toàn thông tin:

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe people of the UK now see that the generosity of welfare makes it that people do not support themselves. The Fed is right on schedule, they are using the shutdown and lack of data to create the narrative of no rate cut in Dec. GDP is now off the charts. Trump says the Fed does nothing, translation we do not need it. The economy is about to shift. Trump played the D's, they tried to set him up using the Epstein files, the tried to divide the movement, it backfired. Trump needed the D's to push the files narrative, optics are important so he could start the real investigation, most likely the document will implicate the D's on some level but not what people expect. The D's are now planning the color revolution, they are telling the military to disobey the Commander in Chief, remember your oath. Trump has the leverage, this leads to panic.   Economy https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1991138641087955359?s=20 https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1991200888480797001?s=20   (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Stephen Miller Reveals Shocking Statistic- 40% of Rent-Controlled Housing in NYC Occupied is By Foreign Born Population (Video) White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller   shared a shocking statistic regarding rent-controlled housing in New York City. Miller shared, “40% of the population of rent-controlled housing in New York City are foreign-born.” “Think about that.” “In one of the largest Metropolitan areas in the world, 40% of rent-controlled properties are being lived in by people who weren't even born in the country. What kind of system is this?” “We bring in people from foreign countries, and then we pay to lower the cost of their housing while people who were born have to pay higher prices?” “So President Trump is reducing net migration, that is what's going to ultimately, along with all these other steps, deregulation, historic tax cuts, is going to bring down the cost of housing.” Watch: Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1991166902354268474?s=20  advanced chips for AI here in the US. All of this started with President Trump wanting to re-industrialize the US. His tariffs were a pressing agent in making this possible." 3. “We are manufacturing in America because of President Trump.” Nvidia reports earnings in less than 6 hours. https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1991141379838255220?s=20 https://twitter.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1991168211942019257?s=20 https://twitter.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1991163760195567968?s=20 https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1991195608615367120?s=20 TAKE A LISTEN https://twitter.com/SecScottBessent/status/1991179870907379944?s=20 returning to the United States in record amounts. Political/Rights https://twitter.com/joma_gc/status/1990866006714266065?s=20  always move the goalpost by making up unsubstantiated nonsense. Protecting their grift is their top priority. Plaskett Delivers Jaw-Dropping Explanation of Why She Texted Jeffrey Epstein During Congressional Hearing Democrat Del. Stacey Plaskett (VI-At Large) continued her whirlwind public tour in which she's tried to convince anyone who will listen that texting sex predator Jeffrey Epstein during a congressional hearing is totally normal. https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1990901876276027581?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1990901876276027581%7Ctwgr%5Eac2f6a2c78cd6d4359fa04dfc99c2d4a4b998c16%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2025%2F11%2F19%2Fplaskett-delivers-jaw-dropping-explanation-of-why-she-texted-jeffrey-epstein-during-congressional-hearing-n2196340 First, it's not exactly common for members of Congress to wantonly text with constituents mid-hearing. Second, referring to Epstein as little more than a "constituent" is like referring to Bill Cosby as just a "Pudding Pop salesman" while neglecting his other obvious history. https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1991175194908782619?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1991175194908782619%7Ctwgr%5Eac2f6a2c78cd6d4359fa04dfc99c2d4a4b998c16%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2025%2F11%2F19%2Fplaskett-delivers-jaw-dropping-explanation-of-why-she-texted-jeffrey-epstein-during-congressional-hearing-n2196340 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1991167379791917155?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1991167379791917155%7Ctwgr%5Eac2f6a2c78cd6d4359fa04dfc99c2d4a4b998c16%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fredstate.com%2Frusty-weiss%2F2025%2F11%2F19%2Fplaskett-delivers-jaw-dropping-explanation-of-why-she-texted-jeffrey-epstein-during-congressional-hearing-n2196340 Source: redstate.com https://twitter.com/RealSLokhova/status/1990992088872190189?s=20   of impeaching the President. Vote to Censure Democrat Stacey Plaskett over Epstein Relationship Fails The vote to censure Virgin Islands delegate Stacey Plaskett (D) for her relationship with sex criminal Jeffrey Epstein failed in the House on Tuesday night, with three Republicans siding with Democrats.   https://twitter.com/RepLuna/status/1991138953211097540?s=20   Source: breitbart.com Rep. Jasmine Crockett's Effort to Smear Republicans Over Epstein Donations Blows Up in Her Face When Conservative Journalist Unearths the Damning Truth (VIDEO) Crockett took to the House floor and accused the GOP of a double standard by asserting without evidence that the likes of Mitt Romney, Lee Zeldin, John McCain, and George W. Bush had once taken money from Epstein. https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1990889556774903965?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1990889556774903965%7Ctwgr%5Efa2c16edf43fdb59f07185608efa8c11f7864c0d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Frep-jasmine-crocketts-effort-smear-republicans-epstein-donations%2F   https://twitter.com/LeeMZeldin/status/1990993148244312175?s=20 https://twitter.com/ChuckRossDC/status/1990996259721588838?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1990996259721588838%7Ctwgr%5Efa2c16edf43fdb59f07185608efa8c11f7864c0d%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Frep-jasmine-crocketts-effort-smear-republicans-epstein-donations%2F   Here's a better look:   Jeffrey Epsteins middle initial is E for Edward Source: thegatewaypundit.com https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1991142109324185937?s=20 https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1991183118502686819?s=20   Epstein coached Summers on a romance in 2018. Summers was married at the time. The men exchanged a trove of messages between 2013 and 2019, according to the emails. "The university is conducting a review of information concerning individuals at Harvard included in the newly released Jeffrey Epstein documents to evaluate what actions may be warranted," Harvard said in a statement. Video: nalgene_queen / tt. SHOCKER: Numerous Members of Bill Clinton's Administration Were Visitors at Epstein's Island Bill Clinton's Administration was infested with creeps who reportedly visited Epstein Island. President Trump is right.  It is time to investigate the Clintons and the entire Democrat Party for their connections to Jeffrey Epstein.    We reported in 2019 that investigative reporter Conchita Sarnoff, the author of “Trafficking” on the Jeffrey Epstein case, joined Shannon Bream and said Bill Clinton flew on Epstein's plane 27 times and ALMOST EVERY TIME that Clinton was on the plane there were underage girls on the plane. Sarnoff also said Bill Clinton was lying about his flights with Jeffrey Epstein. The Clintons were also regular visitors at Epstein's ranch in New Mexico. Al Gore We also learned in 2019 after a release of files from the first Epstein case that one woman claimed Al Gore was at Epstein's Island. A woman who claims she was a sex slave for billionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein says she met former vice president Al Gore, according to documents unsealed on Friday. The documents were made public Friday after a U.S. Court of Appeals upheld a lower court decision to make public more than 2,000 pages of court filings in a since-settled 2015 defamation case brought by Virginia Roberts against Epstein confidant and aide Ghislaine Maxwell. Larry Summers We uncovered in 2019 that Larry Summers, the creepy former President of Harvard and President Clinton's Secretary of Treasury, flew numerous times on Jeffrey Epstein's jet and even flew to Epstein's so called ‘Orgy Island'.   Source: joehoft.com https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1990869778764910819?s=20 https://twitter.com/RealSLokhova/status/1991114085724033393?s=20  squeaky clean. Bill Clinton, Reid Hoffman and co visited the island, plus possible financial ties to Epstein. So they devised an op to make it look like Pres Trump is compromised when he is not. Now Dems are going down. Senate Passes Epstein “Shiny Thing” Bill,

Allen Farrington and Harris Irfan explain that Bitcoin aligns with Islamic finance principles. They discuss riba (usury), fractional reserve banking, and why sound money naturally produces Islamic harmonious financial systems. Allen Farrington and Harris Irfa explain their seminal paper "Bitcoin, Fiat and Islamic Finance." They dive into why Islamic banking is an oxymoron, how riba (interest/usury) connects to fractional reserve banking, and why Bitcoin naturally produces Islamic-compliant financial systems. Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.com **NOTES:** - Global South spends half GDP on debt interest - Islamic finance industry worth $3+ trillion - Dinar used for 1000+ years in Islamic world - Fractional reserve creates money via lending - Sukuk are asset-backed Islamic bonds - Bitcoin enables prophetic economics principles 00:00 Start 01:56 Allen's backstory 03:13 Harris' background 05:09 Islamic banking is an oxymoron 08:10 Islamic finance will emerge on top of Bitcoin 12:46 Basics of Islamic finance 15:20 Riba (interest) 18:08 BTC mining in Islamic nations 24:07 managers & risk sharing 27:55 Flux 33:00 Is Bitcoin halal? 38:58 Islamic finance & a Bitcoin Standrd 41:42 Research response -

Over the past 12 years, Jamaica has faced up to challenging hardships in order to earn hard won gains in terms of ordering the economy, reducing the debt to GDP ratio from 150% to 60% and reducing unemployment to 3.3%. It was, in short, an incredible success story. And then in November 2025, the island was struck by Hurricane Melissa, leaving the country in tatters. The two main industries of tourism and agriculture have been severely damaged and the outlook appears bleak.However, on The LatinNews Podcast this week, we speak to Caribbean economist Marla Dukharan who believes, in spite of the tragedy that befell Jamaica, that there are reasons to remain positive, as the platform for growth and recovery remain intact for the island nation. For Dukharan, Jamaica's human capital, economic know-how, strong diaspora, resilience fund and CRIFF agreement will help the recovery. Questions remain, of course, as to how to mitigate climate events of this nature in the future and how to reform the nature of international aid donations. Follow LatinNews for analysis on economic, political, and security developments in Latin America & the Caribbean. Twitter: @latinnewslondon LinkedIn: Latin American Newsletters Facebook: @latinnews1967 For more insightful, expert-led analysis on Latin America's political and economic landscape, read our reports for free with a 14-day trial. Get full access to our entire portfolio.

In this powerhouse episode, 1819 News CEO Bryan Dawson sits down with Tucker Carlson for the most explosive and candid conversation ever featured on the podcast. Sparked by a seven-year-old viral clip of Carlson debating Ben Shapiro over driverless trucks, Dawson lays out how that single moment shattered the spell of neoliberal economics and exposed the human cost of deindustrialization, mass immigration, and endless foreign wars. What began as a discussion about jobs and GDP quickly became a full-scale autopsy of the conservative movement's decades-long betrayal of the American working class. Carlson pulls no punches: he traces his own journey from a Weekly Standard neoconservative to the leading voice of America First nationalism, recounting the exact moment in Baghdad in 2003 when he realized he'd been “used” to sell a disastrous war. With unflinching honesty, he admits his past mistakes, explains why he now rejects both libertarian economics and neoconservative foreign policy as “false religions,” and declares that any government not putting its own citizens first has no legitimacy. The conversation then dives into the ongoing civil war inside conservatism—paleocons vs. neocons, Buchanan vs. Buckley 2.0—and why the old gatekeepers are finally losing control thanks to Elon Musk's X. Carlson defends “America First” against decades of deliberate slander, dismantles the weaponized charge of antisemitism used to silence dissent, and warns that unchecked demographic replacement and anti-white discrimination are destroying the country his children will inherit. From the collapse of Kevin Roberts at Heritage to the rise of Nick Fuentes among a generation of angry young men, Carlson and Dawson confront the uncomfortable truths the establishment refuses to face: the American people have been lied to, sold out, and humiliated—and they've finally had enough. A raw, unfiltered, and deeply Christian case for putting America—and Americans—first. If you care about the future of this nation, this is the one episode you cannot miss.

In this powerhouse episode, 1819 News CEO Bryan Dawson sits down with Tucker Carlson for the most explosive and candid conversation ever featured on the podcast. Sparked by a seven-year-old viral clip of Carlson debating Ben Shapiro over driverless trucks, Dawson lays out how that single moment shattered the spell of neoliberal economics and exposed the human cost of deindustrialization, mass immigration, and endless foreign wars. What began as a discussion about jobs and GDP quickly became a full-scale autopsy of the conservative movement's decades-long betrayal of the American working class. Carlson pulls no punches: he traces his own journey from a Weekly Standard neoconservative to the leading voice of America First nationalism, recounting the exact moment in Baghdad in 2003 when he realized he'd been “used” to sell a disastrous war. With unflinching honesty, he admits his past mistakes, explains why he now rejects both libertarian economics and neoconservative foreign policy as “false religions,” and declares that any government not putting its own citizens first has no legitimacy. The conversation then dives into the ongoing civil war inside conservatism—paleocons vs. neocons, Buchanan vs. Buckley 2.0—and why the old gatekeepers are finally losing control thanks to Elon Musk's X. Carlson defends “America First” against decades of deliberate slander, dismantles the weaponized charge of antisemitism used to silence dissent, and warns that unchecked demographic replacement and anti-white discrimination are destroying the country his children will inherit. From the collapse of Kevin Roberts at Heritage to the rise of Nick Fuentes among a generation of angry young men, Carlson and Dawson confront the uncomfortable truths the establishment refuses to face: the American people have been lied to, sold out, and humiliated—and they've finally had enough. A raw, unfiltered, and deeply Christian case for putting America—and Americans—first. If you care about the future of this nation, this is the one episode you cannot miss.

Thanks to a governance approach that combines pollution control with climate action, China has seen the growth rate ofanthropogenic emissions ofnitrous oxide level off and steadily decline since 2013. N2O is a greenhouse gas far more potent than carbon dioxide.得益于将污染防治与气候行动相结合的治理模式，中国自2013年起已实现人为源一氧化二氮排放增速趋缓并稳步下降。一氧化二氮（N2O）是一种温室气体，其温室效应远强于二氧化碳。China's experience shows that economic growth does not necessarily mean higher emissions of this heat-trapping gas.中国的实践经验表明，经济增长并非必然导致这种吸热气体排放增加。The remarks were made on Saturday by Han Yinghui, associate professor at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences' college of resources and environment, at an event on controlling non-carbon dioxide, or non-CO2, greenhouse gas emissions. The event was held at the Chinese pavilion on the sidelines of the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP30, in Belem, Brazil.上述观点由中国科学院大学资源与环境学院副教授韩颖慧于周六在一场非二氧化碳（non-CO2）温室气体减排相关活动中提出。该活动在巴西贝伦举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十次缔约方大会（COP30）期间，于中国馆举办。"N2O is decisive for achieving our temperature goals," Han said, highlighting the importance of anthropogenic N2O emissions control.韩颖慧指出，“一氧化二氮（N2O）减排对实现温控目标具有决定性意义”，并强调了人为源一氧化二氮排放管控的重要性。The Paris Agreement aim is to keep global temperature rise this century below 2 C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 C. Scientists increasingly agree that keeping global warming under 1.5 C is essential to avoid severe and catastrophic impacts.《巴黎协定》的目标是将本世纪全球气温上升幅度控制在工业化前水平以上2℃以内，并努力将升温幅度限制在1.5℃以内。科学家们日益达成共识，将全球变暖控制在1.5℃以内对于避免严重且灾难性的影响至关重要。As the third most significant long-lived greenhouse gas, N2O has a global warming potential nearly 300 times that of CO2 and remains in the atmosphere for more than a century, Han said. Globally, most N2O emissions come from agriculture, but energy, waste, and industrial sources also contribute. While agriculture produces the largest share, industrial sources offer the greatest potential for reduction.韩颖慧介绍，作为第三大重要长寿命温室气体，一氧化二氮（N2O）的全球变暖潜能值约为二氧化碳（CO2）的300倍，且在大气中可留存一个多世纪。全球范围内，一氧化二氮排放主要来源于农业领域，能源、废弃物及工业领域也有一定贡献。尽管农业排放占比最大，但工业领域的减排潜力最为突出。Han noted that while developed countries have historically contributed the most cumulative N2O emissions, recent increases have mainly been from emerging economies in Asia. "This makes N2O governance a complex challenge, involving both historical emissions and current development needs and requiring global cooperation," she said.韩颖慧表示，历史上发达国家的累计一氧化二氮（N2O）排放量占比最高，但近年来排放增长主要来自亚洲新兴经济体。“这使得一氧化二氮治理成为一项复杂挑战，既涉及历史排放问题，又关乎当前发展需求，需要全球通力合作。”China's progress, however, offers a hopeful signal. Han credited "synergistic governance" as the key to China's success.不过，中国取得的进展传递出积极信号。韩颖慧认为，“协同治理”是中国取得成效的关键。To reduce nitrogen oxide emissions for cleaner air, China has widely adopted a technology called selective catalytic reduction, or SCR, in coal-fired power plants. The effort has resulted in 70 to 90 percent mitigation in the emissions of coproduced N2O in the sector.为减少氮氧化物排放、改善空气质量，中国已在燃煤电厂广泛应用选择性催化还原（SCR）技术。这一举措使该行业协同产生的一氧化二氮（N2O）排放量降低了70%至90%。"This represents a unified technical strategy for reducing air pollutants and greenhouse gases, and shows China's successful integration of climate goals into environmental management," Han said.韩颖慧说：“这是一项兼顾大气污染物减排与温室气体控制的统一技术策略，体现了中国将气候目标融入环境管理的成功实践。”Her team also studied the link between provincial GDP and N2O emissions in China. "It shows a weak dependence, meaning that higher economic development does not automatically lead to more N2O emissions," she said.她的团队还研究了中国各省份GDP与一氧化二氮（N2O）排放之间的关联。“研究显示二者关联性较弱，这意味着经济发展水平的提高并不会自动导致一氧化二氮排放量增加。”China continues to advance N2O control. In September, authorities introduced an action plan targeting N2O emissions in the industrial sector. Proven technologies are already being applied, such as exhaust gas purification in adipic acid production, which removes more than 95 percent of N2O emissions while recovering the gas as a useful industrial product.中国仍在持续推进一氧化二氮（N2O）管控工作。今年9月，相关部门出台了针对工业领域一氧化二氮排放的行动计划。成熟技术已逐步落地应用，例如己二酸生产过程中的废气净化技术，可去除95%以上的一氧化二氮排放，同时将其回收转化为有用的工业产品。To encourage reductions, China is incorporating N2O data from the nitric acid industry into its national carbon trading system and promoting N2O mitigation projects under the China Certified Emission Reduction program. Under CCER, companies can earncarbon credits by taking actions such as expanding renewable energy and planting forests.为鼓励减排行动，中国正将硝酸行业的一氧化二氮（N2O）排放数据纳入全国碳交易体系，并在中国核证自愿减排量（CCER）项目下推广一氧化二氮减排相关项目。在CCER机制下，企业可通过发展可再生能源、植树造林等行动获取碳信用。"China's validated industrial technologies are scalable and ready to be shared through cooperation platforms, helping others avoid carbon-intensive development pathways," Han said.韩颖慧说：“中国已验证的工业减排技术具有可推广性，可通过合作平台共享，助力其他国家避开高碳发展路径。”anthropogenic emissions人为源排放nitrous oxide一氧化二氮synergistic governance协同治理carbon credits碳信用

Online video games have evolved into vast financial ecosystems where real and virtual value mix at scale. This presentation shows how these spaces serve as efficient laundering channels, converting illicit funds from organized crime, sanctions evasion, terrorist financing, and digital fraud into assets that appear legitimate. Illicit value typically enters via card not present transactions, stolen digital wallets, and scam revenues before it is routed into platform marketplaces. From there, funds convert into tradeable virtual assets such as cosmetics, currencies, loot boxes, and content bundles, which can be divided into thousands of rapid microtransactions. Widely cited estimates place illicit financial flows at 2 to 5 percent of global GDP (roughly $800 billion to $2 trillion a year), while in game spending will reach $74.4 billion in 2025, providing liquidity, speed, and plausible deniability. About the speaker: Stephen Flowerday is a Professor in the School of Computer and Cyber Sciences at Augusta University. His research focuses on cybersecurity management, cybercrime, behavioral information security, and human-centric cybersecurity at the intersection of technology, processes, and people. His work has been supported by IBM, THRIP, the NRF, SASUF, Erasmus, and GMRDC. He serves as an associate editor and frequent reviewer for leading journals and conferences, and has reviewed grants for the Israeli NSF, the South African NRF, the U.S. NSF, and Bahrain's DHE.

The Reserve Bank is set to reveal their latest OCR update next week, but experts aren't feeling too hopeful about the economy. GDP is down and the labour market remains weak, and many are feeling less optimistic. Milford Asset Management's Brendan Larsen explained further. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China's Economic Slump: Export Decline, Policy Failures, and Property Market Stagnation Guests: Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang discussed the unprecedented slump in China's economic activity, noting cooled investment and slowing industrial output, with exports falling 25% to the US, attributing this long-term decline to the government's 2008 decision to pull back economic reforms and the current 15th Five-Year Plan lacking viable solutions or bailouts for hurting localities, while consumption remains dangerously low (around 38% of GDP) and is expected to shrink further as the government prioritizes technological development and factory production, with the property market collapsing as capital investment, land sales, and unit prices decline, forcing people to hold onto decaying apartments and risking stagnation for decades similar to Japan post-1989, a problem largely self-created due to overcapacity, although other countries like Brazil are also restricting Chinese imports.

SHOW 11-17-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1899 UKRAINE THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT POTUS... FIRST HOUR 9-915 Pakistan's Military Dominance: Field Marshal Munir's Power and US Relations Guest: Ambassador Husain Haqqani Ambassador Husain Haqqani detailed the institutional dominance of Pakistan's military, noting that Parliament recently granted Field Marshal Asim Munir legal immunity for life and expanded his power by designating him Chief of Defense Forces, giving him control over the entire military, as Munir aims for presidential privileges without directly taking power, backed by a national narrative that Pakistan is perpetually under threat from India, and gained significant political and psychological advantage through two meetings and praise from President Trump, despite no new US aid or weapons, while Trump, who favors strongmen, may also be using this praise to leverage concessions from Indian Prime Minister Modi, as Munir is taking risks by adopting a firmer stance regarding violence on the Northwest frontier with the Taliban, an approach not well received by the Afghans, with Pakistani politicians historically conceding ground to the military to secure a shared portion of power. 915-930 CONTINUED Pakistan's Military Dominance: Field Marshal Munir's Power and US Relations Guest: Ambassador Husain Haqqani Ambassador Husain Haqqani detailed the institutional dominance of Pakistan's military, noting that Parliament recently granted Field Marshal Asim Munir legal immunity for life and expanded his power 930-945 China's Economic Slump: Export Decline, Policy Failures, and Property Market Stagnation Guests: Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang Anne Stevenson-Yang and Gordon Chang discussed the unprecedented slump in China's economic activity, noting cooled investment and slowing industrial output, with exports falling 25% to the US, attributing this long-term decline to the government's 2008 decision to pull back economic reforms and the current 15th Five-Year Plan lacking viable solutions or bailouts for hurting localities, while consumption remains dangerously low (around 38% of GDP) and is expected to shrink further as the government prioritizes technological development and factory production, with the property market collapsing as capital investment, land sales, and unit prices decline, forcing people to hold onto decaying apartments and risking stagnation for decades similar to Japan post-1989, a problem largely self-created due to overcapacity, although other countries like Brazil are also restricting Chinese imports. 945-1000 China's Role in Global Drug Epidemics: Meth Precursors and Weaponizing Chemicals. Guests: Kelly Curry and Gordon Chang. Kelly Curry and Gordon Chang detailed China's crucial role in the global drug trade, asserting that China's chemical exports are fueling a "tsunami of meth" across Asia. Chinese manufacturers supply meth precursor chemicals to warlords, notably the Chinese-aligned, US-sanctioned United Wa State Army in Myanmar. This production (Yaba/ice) is believed to have been diverted from China's domestic market in the 1990s. Both guests confirmed this activity is impossible without the explicit knowledge and support of the Central Committee, noting China grants export subsidies, tax rebates, and uses state banks for money laundering associated with the drug trade. China benefits financially and strategically by weakening US-backed allies like Thailand and South Korea who are flooded with the drugs. This structure mirrors the fentanyl crisis in North America, and experts predict increasing co-production and sharing of chemical methods between Asian drug groups and Mexican cartels. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Syria's Complex Geopolitics: Air Bases, Sanctions, Accountability, and Great Power Mediation Guest: Ahmad Sharawi Ahmad Sharawi discussed the non-transparent situation in Syria, focusing on reports of potential US air bases (Mezzeh and Dumayr), with denials from the Syrian government suggesting they won't possess the bases but might allow US use for counter-ISIS missions or potentially a security agreement requested by Israel for deconfliction, noting a recent US C-130 spotted landing at the Mezzeh air base near Damascus, while during a reported White House visit, Syrian requests included the removal of Caesar sanctions (partially waived by President Trump) and an Israeli withdrawal from the southern border buffer zone, with domestic movement towards accountability for the Suwayda province massacre and government security forces being arrested, as a Russian military delegation visited Damascus and southern Syria, potentially acting as a deconfliction mechanism between Syria and Israeli forces, with Russia's goal appearing to be balancing regional interests while maintaining its bases in western Syria. 1015-1030 CONTINUED Syria's Complex Geopolitics: Air Bases, Sanctions, Accountability, and Great Power Mediation Guest: Ahmad Sharawi Ahmad Sharawi discussed the non-transparent situation in Syria, focusing on reports of potential US air bases (Mezzeh and Dumayr), with denials from the Syrian government... 1030-1045 Venezuela Crisis: Potential Maduro Exit and Shifting Political Tides in Latin America Guests: Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo discussed the crisis in Venezuela, noting a powerful US fleet gathered nearby, with Maduro fearing military intervention and reportedly wanting to discuss surrender conditions with President Trump, though his exit is complicated by his ally Diosdado Cabello, who heads operations for the Cartel of the Suns and has no path for redemption, while Maduro's potential fall would deliver a severe blow to the organized crime and drug trafficking networks that permeate South America's political structures, with the opposition, led by María Corina Machado, having transition plans, and Brazilian President Lula neutralized from strongly opposing US actions due to ongoing tariff negotiations with Trump, as the conversation highlighted a new conservative political wave in Latin America, with optimism reported in Argentina following elections that strengthened Javier Milei, and in Chile, where conservative José Antonio Kast is strongly positioned, representing a blend of economic freedom, anti-organized crime platforms, and conservative values. 1045-1100 CONTINUED Venezuela Crisis: Potential Maduro Exit and Shifting Political Tides in Latin America Guests: Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa Alejandro Peña Esclusa and Ernesto Araújo discussed the crisis in Venezuela, noting a powerful US fleet gathered nearby, with Maduro fearing military intervention and... THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 1/4 Jews Versus Rome: Two Centuries of Rebellion and the Cost of Diaspora Revolts Professor Barry Strauss of Cornell University, Professor Emeritus and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, discusses the history of Jewish resistance against the Roman Empire as detailed in his book Jews versus Rome. Following the destruction of the Temple and Jerusalem, rebellion continued among Jewish communities scattered across the Roman world. 1115-1130 CONTINUED 2/4 During Emperor Trajan's campaign against the Parthian Empire, a widespread and coordinated "diaspora revolt" erupted in 115–117 AD, beginning in Libya and spreading to Egypt, Cyprus, and Mesopotamia. This was a major challenge, forcing Trajan to divert a legion, as Egypt was the empire's strategic breadbasket. The revolt was spurred by the insulting Jewish tax, the fiscus Judaicus, paid to Jupiter, and the frustrated expectation that the Temple would be rebuilt within 70 years. The Jewish community in Alexandria, possibly the largest Jewish city in the ancient world, was wiped out during the suppression, a disaster for diaspora Judaism. 1130-1145 CONTINUED 3/4 srajan's successor, Hadrian, revered the war against Parthia but recognized the Jews' disloyalty. Starting in 117 AD, Hadrian planned to rebuild Jerusalem as a pagan city named Aelia Capitolina to demonstrate that the Temple would never be restored and to discourage collusion between Jews and Parthians. This provoked the Bar Kokhba Revolt in 132 AD. The leader, Simon Bar Kosa, took the messianic title Bar Kokhba, meaning "Son of the Star," and was accepted as the Messiah by some leading rabbis, including Rabbi Akiva. 1145-1200 CONTINUED The rebels utilized successful asymmetrical warfare, operating from underground tunnel systems and ambushing Roman forces. The conflict was so severe that Hadrian deployed reinforcements from across the empire, including Britain, and the Roman army was badly mauled. The revolt ended bloodily at the stronghold of Betar. As lasting punishment for centuries of trouble and rebellion, the Romans renamed the province from Judea to Syria Palestina. Pockets of resistance continued, notably the Gallus Revolt in 351–352 AD. Guest: Professor Barry Strauss. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Iran's Multi-Faceted Crises: Water Scarcity, Pollution, and Transnational Repression Guest: Jonathan Sayah Jonathan Sayah discussed the multi-faceted crises plaguing Iran, reflecting poor management and ecological decline, with Tehran overwhelmed by severe water scarcity as dams dry up and crippling air pollution with CO2 levels 10 times the WHO standard, while the water crisis is worsened by the regime, especially IRGC-affiliated contractors, who prioritize their support base through unregulated mega-projects, leading to rivers and lakes drying up, a deliberate deprivation of clean water that constitutes a human rights violation, as environmental disasters have driven widespread internal migration into Tehran, taxing infrastructure and leading to issues like land subsidence, with the population considered "prime for unrest," while separately, Iran continues its policy of transnational repression, highlighted by the recent foiled plot to assassinate Israel's ambassador in Mexico, as Iran targets both Israeli/American officials and relies on criminal networks to repress Iranian dissidents abroad, while consistently holding American dual citizens hostage as political leverage. 1215-1230 CONTINUED 1230-1245 Ukraine Conflict: French Arms Deal, Sabotage, and the Perilous Battle for Pokrovsk. Guest: John Hardy. John Hardy reported that Ukraine signed a letter of intent with France to obtain 100 Rafale warplanes over 10 years, along with air defense systems. While this partnership is encouraging, Hardy expressed concern that Ukraine is excessively over-diversifying its future air fleet (including F-16, Grippen, Mirage, and Rafale) which complicates long-term sustainment and maintenance. Simultaneously, alarming reports surfaced that sabotage was blamed for an explosion on a major railway line in Poland used to supply Ukraine, fitting a pattern of suspected Russian covert operations against European infrastructure. On the battlefield, fighting continues in Pokrovsk (Picro). Hardy warned that if Ukrainian forces prioritize a politically motivated hold, they risk the encirclement and destruction of troops in nearby areas. Poor weather, such as fog, plays a significant role in the conflict, as Russians often time assaults during these conditions to impede Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance and FPV drones 1245-100 AM raq Elections and Yemen's Houthi Crackdown Guest: Bridget Toomey Bridget Toomey discussed recent developments in Iraq and Yemen, noting that Iraqi parliamentary elections saw a higher-than-expected 56% voter turnout, with preliminary results suggesting Shiite parties close to Tehran performed well and might secure enough seats to form the next government, despite internal infighting and votes remaining largely sectarian, while Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani received credit for stability and his party performed strongly, though many Iraqis doubt the elections affect real change, believing critical decisions are made via elite backroom deals, and turning to Yemen, the Houthis announced the arrest of a purported Saudi-American-Israeli spy ring, a paranoid crackdown following Israel's successful targeting of Houthi government and military leaders in August, with arrests including 59 UN workers and prosecutors requesting the death sentence for 21, aiming to intimidate domestic dissent and signal resolve to Western and regional adversaries, especially in sensitive Houthi locations in Sana'a.

For nearly a century, GDP has been the world's go-to measure of economic success—but what if it's been telling us the wrong story? It treats cigarette sales and cancer treatments as equally “good” for the economy, while caring for your kids, volunteering, or creating art don't count at all. This week, economist Diane Coyle joins Nick and Goldy to discuss her new book, The Measure of Progress, and explain why GDP increasingly fails to capture the reality of modern economies—and how we can measure real progress instead. Diane Coyle is the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. She is also the Research Director at the Bennett School of Public Policy, a member of the UK Government's Industrial Strategy Council, and author of the new book, The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters. Social Media: @dianecoyle1859.bsky.social @DianeCoyle1859 Further reading:  The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time The Economics of Care with Nancy Folbre Website: http://pitchforkeconomics.com Instagram: @pitchforkeconomics Threads: pitchforkeconomics Bluesky: @pitchforkeconomics.bsky.social Twitter: @PitchforkEcon, @NickHanauer, @civicaction YouTube: @pitchforkeconomics LinkedIn: Pitchfork Economics Substack: The Pitch

The Trump administration has delivered significant achievements on border security, energy production, crime reduction, and foreign policy in its first 10 months, but several overlooked issues could become serious vulnerabilities if not addressed before the midterms.   Victor Davis Hanson breaks down the major political challenges that could quietly undermine the Trump administration's momentum heading into 2026 and why the administration must shift its public messaging toward the economy on today's episode of “Victor Davis Hanson: In a Few Words.”   “ Donald Trump has naturally talked about achieving peace with Ethiopia and Egypt, or Pakistan or India, or what we accomplish by taking out the nuclear facilities in Iran, etc. But the elections are not won on foreign policy, unfortunately, or maybe fortunate. They're won on economics. And the Left, in that vacuum, and that lack of praise for the accomplishments of the Trump administration on energy, on GDP, on the stock market, on deregulation, on tax reform, and what will happen in 2026 when, I think, foreign investment and these new technologies will help, in addition, spur the economy and relieve our worries about inflation and affordability—we have to talk about that. Specifically, he has to talk about the comparison of the Biden administration with both his first term, but more importantly, with what he's done the first 10 to 11 months, and what will ensue in 2026 for the things he's doing now.”   00:00 Introduction 00:58 Achievements and Comparisons 04:20 HB-1 Visas Controversy 05:50 Final Thoughts    

Lithuania's Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys joins Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly in Washington with a blunt warning: Western military restraint is encouraging, not deterring, the Kremlin. Budrys explains why Lithuania is raising defense spending to more than 5% of GDP by 2026—the highest in the democratic world—and pushing NATO toward offensive deterrence and denial "from the very first inch." He details Belarus' role as a state-enabled criminal actor, from weaponized migration to smuggling operations using high-altitude balloons that forced Lithuania to shut down its main international airport, and why Minsk deserves tougher sanctions. Budrys also walks through recent Russian gray-zone activity in the Baltic Sea and NATO airspace, arguing that only stronger posture—not de-escalation—has stopped undersea infrastructure attacks and drone incursions. The Minister lays out what a potential Ukraine ceasefire would mean for the Baltics, why Vilnius is committing 0.25% of GDP annually to Ukraine's security for ten years, and how Russian forces redeployed from Ukraine could reshape the threat on NATO's eastern flank. He also highlights Lithuania's energy break from Moscow—now sourcing 75% of its LNG from the U.S.—and its push for tougher economic security policies toward China as it prepares to hold the EU presidency in 2027. A candid, front-line view of deterrence, gray-zone warfare, and the future of the transatlantic alliance.

Value investor Brian Hirschmann, managing partner of hedge fund Hirschmann Capital, warns we're in the most dangerous time in financial history with three unprecedented bubbles—equities, real estate, and bonds. Hirschmann sees gold doubling to $8,000+ in the coming crisis, but argues for significant upside in gold mining developers. He predicts the Fed will be trapped in a stagflation scenario, and warns the next crisis will be the mother of all financial crises.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: Hirschmann Capital: https://www.hcapital.llc/ Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/HCapitalLLCTimestamps: 0:00 Intro and welcome back Brian Hirschmann1:20 Macro picture, 3 bubbles bigger, most dangerous time in US financial history5:00 Era of bailouts is over, government debt at breaking point8:10 Are we past the point of no return?9:00 US debt at 120% of GDP, virtually all countries at this level defaulted15:55 Gold discussion: doubled since last appearance 18 months ago20:54 Gold could more than double to $8,500+ if crisis hits24:27 Gold miners vs gold: developers trading at 20% of intrinsic value30:36 Misconceptions about gold's rise: tariffs, Chinese central bank, ETFs34:04 Bitcoin39:33 Fed will be trapped, lose control of interest rates in stagflation scenario42:00 Lessons from David Swensen45:19 Closing remarks

台灣引以為傲的出口奇蹟，背後竟潛藏巨大風險！ 央行數十年來持續低估新台幣，根據大麥克指數（Big Mac Index）顯示，新台幣對美元幣值被低估55%，為全球之最。台灣經常帳盈餘已飆升至GDP的16%，遠超中國的3%，但《經濟學人》警告，這項廉價貨幣政策如今已淪為昂貴而危險的時代錯誤。 最直接的代價是消費者購買力大幅縮水，自1998年來民間消費佔GDP比重暴跌20個百分點，房價更飆漲四倍。更危險的是，壽險業近一兆美元投入美債，造成巨大貨幣錯配，恐因匯率劇烈變動引發金融危機。而政策之所以持續，在於出口利益集團無法承受升值影響，以及央行上繳利潤已占政府總收入6%，擁有超常規的政治權力。 值得警惕的是，美元若貶值可能重創壽險業，川普政府也可能動用關稅迫使台灣升值。《經濟學人》直言，台灣需解開過時經濟模式，央行應學習新加坡建立長期貨幣路徑，讓普通台灣人終能享受出口奇蹟成果。 主持人：天下雜誌資深主筆 黃亦筠 主講人：金庫資本管理合夥人兼總經理 丁學文 製作團隊：樂祈、邱宇豪 ＊延伸閱讀｜如何不被AI泡沫傷到？網路泡沫倖存老手都買這些「看不見的贏家」：https://lihi.cc/aFqFx ＊立即收聽《CEO的修煉場》：https://hi.cw.com.tw/u/jqveRdb/ ＊訂閱天下全閱讀：https://bit.ly/3STpEpV ＊意見信箱：bill@cw.com.tw -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

รายงาน GDP ไทยไตรมาส 3 ของปี 2568 ขยายตัว 1.2% ต่ำกว่าคาด ติดลบ QoQ ครั้งแรกในรอบ 10 ไตรมาส รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไร สัมพันธ์ไทย-จีน 50 ปี แนบแน่น จะฟื้นความหวังเศรษฐกิจและการท่องเที่ยวได้แค่ไหน พูดคุยกับ ดร.อดิษฐ์ ชัยรัตนานนท์ เลขาธิการสมาคมไทยธุรกิจการท่องเที่ยว (ATTA) อัปเดตสถานการณ์และวิเคราะห์การลงทุน พูดคุยกับ สิทธิชัย ดวงรัตนฉายา นักกลยุทธ์อาวุโสตลาดหุ้นไทยและต่างประเทศ ฝ่ายกลยุทธ์การลงทุน บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์

A new University of Oxford report finds a rapid switch to renewables could double energy-sector productivity in low-to-middle income economies within 25 years. In many countries, this would result in a GDP boost by mid-century of around 10%. "Opting for clean energy could be an economic boon for solar-rich countries such as Burundi, DR Congo and Mozambique," says Professor Sam Fankhauser, Interim Director of Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment. "For context, 10% of GDP is roughly the amount countries typically spend on public health. These productivity gains are unprecedented, and it could be the developing countries that benefit the most." The importance and benefits of a clean energy transition Renewable energy boosts productivity in two ways: more electricity is generated per dollar invested, with fewer losses (for example to heat) compared to fossil fuels, and renewable energy is cheaper - enabling households, businesses and industries to run for longer at lower cost. The report quantifies this gain over the next 25 years and finds that renewable energy productivity gains are much higher in the Global South, resulting in an important advantage in the growing net zero economy. Renewables could finally start to close the income gap between rich and poor countries, say the authors. The report, part of a three-year research programme funded by energy company SSE, also investigates how renewable energy investment has already boosted GDP in low and middle-income countries as compared to fossil fuels. Spending on renewables gets multiplied in the local economy much more than fossil fuels - along the supply chain and through local wages. The analysis shows that from 2017-2022 this has boosted the GDP of the 100 largest developing countries (excluding China) by a combined US$1.2 trillion - the equivalent of 2 to 5% of GDP for most nations. In COP30 host Brazil, renewable investments raised GDP by US$128 billion. However, the authors caution that the economic benefits of renewables do not automatically flow to host communities. Instead, deliberate benefit-sharing mechanisms such as community benefit funds and co-ownership are needed. The report concludes by emphasising the potential of distributed renewable energy for accessibility and inclusion. "The success of the renewable energy transition will depend not only on lower costs and higher productivity - both of which are now all but guaranteed - but on our collective ability to ensure that its benefits are fairly and widely shared, leaving no community behind," says Professor Fankhauser. Rhian Kelly, Chief Sustainability Officer at SSE, comments: "Meaningful consultation must sit at the heart of every approach to community engagement. The most successful models go well beyond minimum requirements, reflecting the priorities and context of local people. By sharing learnings, we can identify what works best - and ensure that dedicated community funds are transparent, flexible, truly responsive to local needs. In the UK and Ireland, these funds have already supported more than 12,000 projects. With clear policy frameworks - including minimum contribution thresholds and standardised benefit-sharing agreements - we can build on this success and deliver lasting benefits for communities." The report will be uploaded here: https://www.smithschool.ox.ac. uk/research/economics sustainability About the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment The Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford equips enterprise to achieve net zero emissions and the sustainable development goals, through world-leading research, teaching and partnerships. https://www.smithschool.ox.ac. uk/ See more breaking stories here.

รายงาน GDP ไทยไตรมาส 3 ของปี 2568 ขยายตัว 1.2% ต่ำกว่าคาด ติดลบ QoQ ครั้งแรกในรอบ 10 ไตรมาส รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไรสัมพันธ์ไทย-จีน 50 ปี แนบแน่น จะฟื้นความหวังเศรษฐกิจและการท่องเที่ยวได้แค่ไหน พูดคุยกับ ดร.อดิษฐ์ ชัยรัตนานนท์ เลขาธิการสมาคมไทยธุรกิจการท่องเที่ยว (ATTA)อัปเดตสถานการณ์และวิเคราะห์การลงทุน พูดคุยกับ สิทธิชัย ดวงรัตนฉายา นักกลยุทธ์อาวุโสตลาดหุ้นไทยและต่างประเทศ ฝ่ายกลยุทธ์การลงทุน บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์

How do you run a $2 trillion segment of the economy with just a book?In today's episode of Bricks and Bytes, we had Dmitry Alexin from Handoff and we got to learn about how AI is transforming residential construction, why 90% of US construction firms are one-person operations struggling with back-office work, and how a former IMF economist ended up building technology that delivers cost estimates in 30 seconds... and many more!Tune in to find out about:✅ Why traditional construction cost data is stuck in the physical book era and how real-time APIs are changing the game✅ How contractors can now delegate entire workflows to an AI agent through simple voice commands while driving between jobs✅ Why selling to residential contractors requires throwing out the enterprise playbook and leading with instant product value✅ The surprising shift of professionals from marketing and accounting backgrounds entering residential construction with a software-first mindsetWatch now to hear Dmitry's journey from GDP forecasting during the Ebola pandemic to revolutionizing how residential contractors run their businesses.Our Sponsor: Archdesk -  “The #1 Construction Management Software for Growing Companies - Manage your projects from Tender to Handover” check archdesk.comBuildVision -   streamlining the construction supply chain with a unified platform - www.buildvision.ioAphex is the multiplayer planning platform where construction teams plan together, stay aligned, and deliver projects faster – check out aphex.coChapters00:00 Intro03:40 Introduction to Handoff and Its Purpose06:41 Dmitry's Background and Transition to Construction09:30 The Data Challenge in Construction12:49 Building the First Real-Time API for Construction Prices15:35 The Evolution of Handoff and Its Features18:37 The Importance of Accurate Estimating21:37 The Role of AI in Construction Estimating24:40 Understanding Labor and Material Costs27:32 Streamlining Procurement Processes30:36 Product-Led Growth Strategy33:35 Overcoming Skepticism in the Industry37:55 Leading with Value: Product-Led Growth38:42 Go-To-Market Strategies: Finding Your Audience43:24 Targeting Residential Contractors: A Strategic Choice46:54 The Role of AI Agents in Construction Tech49:25 Learning from Failures: Experimentation in Startups55:35 Future of Construction: Robotics and Material Science58:60 Funding Insights: Building a Diverse Investor Base01:05:05 Advice for Technical Founders: Embracing Humility01:07:15 Join the Team: Opportunities at Handoff

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

On this episode of Crazy Wisdom, Stewart Alsop sits down with Terrence Yang to explore the US economy through the lens of federal net outlays, inflation, and growth, moving into China–US economic and military dynamics, the role of the dollar as a reserve currency, and how China's industrial and open-source AI strategies intersect with US innovation; they also get into Bitcoin's governance, Bitcoin Core maintainers, and what long-term digital scarcity means for money, security, and decentralization. To learn more about Terrence's work, you can find him on LinkedIn.Check out this GPT we trained on the conversationTimestamps00:00 Stewart and Terrence open with the US economy, federal net outlays, and why confidence matters more than doom narratives. 05:00 They compare debt-to-GDP, discuss budget surpluses, and how the US once grew out of large debt after WWII. 10:00 Terrence explains recurring revenue vs. one-time income, taxes, tariffs, and why sustainable growth is essential. 15:00 Conversation turns to China's strategy, industrial buildup, rare earths, and provincial debt vs. national positioning. 20:00 They explore military power, aircraft carriers, nuclear subs, and how hard power supports reserve currency status. 25:00 Discussion of AI competition among Google, OpenAI, Claude, and China's push for open-source standards. 30:00 Terrence raises concerns about open-source trust, model weights, and parallels with Bitcoin Core governance. 35:00 They examine maintainers, consensus rules, and how decentralization actually works in practice. 40:00 Terrence highlights Bitcoin as digital gold, its limits as money, and why volatility shapes adoption. 45:00 They close on unit of account, long-term holding strategies, and risks of panic selling during cycles.Key InsightsFederal net outlays reveal the real fiscal picture. Terrence Yang emphasizes that looking only at debt-to-GDP misses the deeper issue: the U.S. has run negative net outlays—more cash going out than coming in—for decades. He argues that sustainable recurring revenue, not one-time windfalls or asset sales, is what ultimately stabilizes a nation's finances.Confidence is an economic force of its own. Terrence warns that cultural pessimism can damage the U.S. more than high debt. Drawing parallels to Japan's post-1990 stagnation, he notes that when people stop taking risks, innovation slows and economies ossify. The U.S. thrives on risk-taking, immigration, and entrepreneurial experimentation—and needs to preserve that spirit.Inflation and growth are locked in a difficult balance. The conversation explores how current inflation remains above target while growth feels sluggish, creating a quasi-stagflation environment. Terrence questions whether the Federal Reserve should remain tied to a 2% target or adapt to new conditions, particularly when jobs and productivity remain uneven.China's economic strategy is broad, deliberate, and deeply practical. From inviting Western VCs in the 1990s to absorbing semiconductor know-how and refining rare earth materials, China built an industrial base that now rivals or surpasses U.S. manufacturing in many domains. Yet its provincial and real-estate debt highlight structural weaknesses beneath the surface.The U.S. dollar's dominance rests on military and institutional power. Terrence argues that reserve-currency status persists because the U.S. guarantees open trade routes and global security. Even countries with weak currencies prefer the dollar in black markets. Competitors like BRICS may want an alternative system, but replacing the dollar requires decades, not years.Open-source AI is becoming a geopolitical tool. China's strategy of flooding the world with strong, free, open-source models mirrors Linux's global influence. Terrence notes that trust and transparency matter, since open-source code still requires knowledgeable maintainers who can verify safety, intentions, and alignment. This dynamic is now a competitive front in the AI race.Bitcoin governance is both decentralized and fragile. Terrence explains that Bitcoin Core has very few maintainers and relies on a culture of trust, review, and distributed accountability. While Bitcoin works well as long-term “digital gold,” improvements are incremental, and the small number of developers poses systemic risks. He stresses that understanding governance—not just price—is crucial for anyone serious about Bitcoin's future.

Việt Nam đặt mục tiêu tăng trưởng năm 2026 đạt 10% trở lên “để tạo đà, tạo lực, tạo thế cho tăng trưởng hai con số trong những năm tiếp theo, GDP đầu người đạt 5.500 đô la” (1). Đây là hai trong số 15 chỉ tiêu về kinh tế-xã hội trong kế hoạch dự kiến năm 2026 để đạt hai mục tiêu 100 năm đã đề ra : Đến năm 2030 trở thành nước đang phát triển có công nghiệp hiện đại, thu nhập trung bình cao; đến năm 2045 trở thành nước phát triển, thu nhập cao. Ngày 19/10/2025, thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính thừa nhận mục tiêu tăng trưởng GDP hai con số những năm tới là không dễ đạt được, nhưng không thể không làm. Chính phủ duy trì mức tăng trưởng 8% cho năm 2025 (thấp hơn so với dự báo hồi đầu năm) nhờ vào việc “nền kinh tế Việt Nam đã chứng minh được khả năng phục hồi bất chấp những cú sốc bên ngoài”. Tuy nhiên, các định chế tài chính, ngân hàng quốc tế đưa ra mức thẩm định thấp hơn : từ 6,5% đến 6,7%. Chính phủ xác định phải thay đổi mô hình kinh tế, hiện vẫn dựa vào gia công, nhập khẩu và mô hình tăng trưởng, chủ yếu đến từ vốn, lao động (2). Tuy nhiên, những thay đổi này liệu có thể mang lại kết quả ngay năm 2026 để góp phần cho mục tiêu tăng trưởng 10% ? Tăng trưởng của Việt Nam vẫn phụ thuộc rất lớn vào xuất khẩu, đặc biệt là thị trường Mỹ, mức thuế hải quan 20% áp dụng đối với hàng hóa của Việt Nam, cũng như những xáo trộn trên thế giới do thuế đối ứng của Mỹ, sẽ tiếp tục tác động như thế nào đến hoạt động xuất khẩu của Việt Nam năm 2026 ? Ông Hubert Testard, chuyên gia về châu Á và các thách thức kinh tế quốc tế, tổng biên tập báo mạng Asialyst chuyên về châu Á, chia sẻ một số nhận định với RFI Tiếng Việt. RFI : Chính phủ Việt Nam đưa ra dự báo tăng trưởng GDP năm 2025 là 8%. Vào tháng 9, Ngân hàng Phát triển châu Á (ADB) đưa ra dự báo là khoảng 6,7%, còn Ngân hàng Thế giới là 6,6%, Quỹ Tiền tệ Quốc tế là 6,5%. Có thể thấy sự khác biệt rất rõ giữa những mức dự báo này. Liệu chúng ta có thể lạc quan về dự báo được chính phủ Việt Nam đưa ra không ? Hubert Testard : Đúng là có sự khác biệt giữa dự báo chính thức của chính phủ Việt Nam, khá là lạc quan cho năm 2025, và dự báo của các tổ chức quốc tế. Sự khác biệt này có thể là do những gì xuất hiện trong báo cáo của các tổ chức quốc tế thường dựa trên dữ liệu chậm hơn ngày công bố từ một đến hai tháng. Ví dụ, Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế - IMF vừa công bố báo cáo thường niên vào ngày 15/10, nhưng dữ liệu đối với Việt Nam có lẽ là những dữ liệu dừng lại vào cuối tháng 8. Vấn đề ở chỗ là Việt Nam đã ghi nhận kết quả quý III rất tốt, với mức tăng trưởng hơn 8% một chút. Và đó là lý do khiến chính phủ Việt Nam lạc quan về tăng trưởng cả năm. Nhưng chúng ta biết rằng quý IV sẽ ít khả quan hơn vì áp lực từ thuế quan của Mỹ. Xuất khẩu của Việt Nam sang Hoa Kỳ trong quý I đã rất tốt vì các nhà xuất khẩu lường trước được những vấn đề này và do đó, xuất khẩu của Việt Nam sang Mỹ đã tăng gần 30% trong nửa đầu năm. Nhưng rõ ràng, giờ đây mọi chuyện không thể như cũ được nữa và sẽ có tác động trong quý IV. Đọc thêmMỹ-Việt công bố tuyên bố chung về thỏa thuận khung thương mại, Hà Nội vẫn chịu mức thuế quan 20% Nhưng vì kết quả quý III rất tốt, tôi nghĩ rằng nhìn chung, kết quả cả năm sẽ không chênh lệch quá nhiều so với dự báo của chính phủ. Tôi nghĩ con số này sẽ tốt hơn so với những gì Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế hoặc Ngân Hàng Thế Giới dự báo trong số liệu chính thức hiện nay của họ. Theo tôi, kết quả sẽ đạt trên 7% trong năm nay. RFI : Ngày 20/10, thủ tướng Phạm Minh Chính nhấn mạnh “kinh tế Việt Nam khẳng định đủ sức chống chịu trước các cú sốc bên ngoài, tăng trưởng cao hàng đầu thế giới”. Liệu điều này có thể giúp đạt được mục tiêu tăng trưởng 10% cho năm 2026 ? Hubert Testard : Mức 10% vào năm 2026, trái lại, lại quá lạc quan, rất tham vọng. Và theo tôi, có lẽ không thể đạt được đối với Việt Nam, bởi vì bối cảnh quốc tế trong năm 2026 sẽ bớt thuận lợi hơn nhiều. Trước tiên là mức thuế quan trung bình 20% của Mỹ mà ai cũng biết, nhưng cũng phải kể đến nhiều mức thuế đặc biệt khác đối với ô tô, thép, nhôm. Gần đây, còn có một vấn đề khác đối với các nhà xuất khẩu thủy sản Việt Nam, với thông báo ngừng xuất khẩu một số mặt hàng vào năm 2026. Tất cả những điểm này sẽ có tác động nhất định. Ngoài ra, bối cảnh chung ở một số nước khác cũng không đặc biệt hơn. Nghĩa là, nhu cầu của Trung Quốc không mạnh lắm, châu Âu đang cố gắng hạn chế dòng hàng nhập khẩu từ châu Á, đặc biệt là từ Trung Quốc. Vì vậy, bối cảnh quốc tế sẽ kém thuận lợi hơn. Tất cả các tổ chức quốc tế đều dự đoán năm 2026 sẽ có mức tăng trưởng kém hơn một chút so với năm 2025. Vì vậy, việc đạt được 10% trong bối cảnh này, đối với tôi, là không được khả thi lắm. RFI : Ông vừa nhắc đến mức thuế 20% của Mỹ, khả năng thủy sản Việt Nam không được xuất khẩu sang Mỹ năm 2026… những biện pháp này có tác động đến GDP của Việt Nam không trong khi năm 2024, xuất khẩu sang Hoa Kỳ chiếm khoảng 30% GDP của Việt Nam ? Hubert Testard : Có, chắc chắn là có. Đã có những đánh giá về tác động này, nhưng chúng ta hãy chờ xem tác động thực sự như thế nào. Theo Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc tế - IMF, tác động của chủ nghĩa bảo hộ mậu dịch của Mỹ gây thiệt hại ít nhất là khoảng 0,5 đến 0,7% GDP cho Việt Nam. Đó là một cú sốc đáng kể và có thể bù đắp được nếu Việt Nam thúc đẩy nhiều hơn nhu cầu nội địa và đa dạng hóa trao đổi thương mại quốc tế. Tuy nhiên, đây vẫn là một cú sốc tiềm tàng khá mạnh. Chương trình Phát triển Liên Hiệp Quốc (UNDP) cũng ước tính xuất khẩu của Việt Nam sang Hoa Kỳ có thể giảm 20%. Tôi thấy con số này hơi quá. Nhưng rõ ràng là vẫn sẽ có một cú sốc rất lớn, cho nên Việt Nam sẽ phải bù đắp cú sốc này bằng nhiều biện pháp khác nhau trên thị trường nội địa cũng như đa dạng hóa trao đổi thương mại. Đọc thêmViệt Nam : “Bạn” hay “thù” trong chính sách đánh thuế của Trump ? RFI : Mô hình tăng trưởng của Việt Nam phụ thuộc vào tín dụng ngân hàng, đầu tư công và xuất khẩu, chủ yếu từ các nhà đầu tư nước ngoài. Liệu mô hình này có còn phù hợp trong tương lai ? Hubert Testard : Rõ ràng là phải thay đổi mô hình này. Đó là điều mà Tổ chức Hợp tác và Phát triển Kinh tế (OCDE) khuyến nghị trong báo cáo tháng 06/2025 về Việt Nam. Tổ chức này đưa ra một loạt đề xuất để mô hình tăng trưởng của Việt Nam tiến triển. Tôi nghĩ là trong bối cảnh nhu cầu quốc tế sẽ phức tạp, Việt Nam cần phát triển nhu cầu nội địa nhiều hơn hiện tại. Dù sao vẫn có một số điểm tích cực, ví dụ như tiền lương ở Việt Nam đang tăng nhanh hơn so với các nước ASEAN khác. Và đó là một cách tốt để hỗ trợ nhu cầu nội địa. Nhưng vẫn còn nhiều vấn đề khác, ví dụ, chi tiêu về xã hội rõ ràng là không đủ, đặc biệt là cho người cao tuổi. Cho nên lương hưu, đặc biệt là lương hưu tối thiểu, là một vấn đề. Ngoài ra, chi tiêu cho giáo dục, đặc biệt là giáo dục đại học, cũng không đủ. Chúng ta biết rằng kinh phí mà thanh niên Việt Nam phải trả để học đại học là quá cao, và khiến một bộ phận người trẻ không muốn hoặc không thể theo học. Đó là điều cần phải thay đổi bởi vì Việt Nam ngày càng cần một lực lượng lao động được đào tạo bài bản và có trình độ để đạt được tăng trưởng hiệu quả hơn và hướng tới các công nghệ khác. Đọc thêmĐể duy trì tăng trưởng cao, Việt Nam buộc phải thúc đẩy khu vực kinh tế tư nhân Ngoài ra, còn có một vấn đề tiềm ẩn khác đang bắt đầu nổi lên, đó là tình trạng lão hóa dân số. Hiện nay, những người trên 65 tuổi chiếm 15% dân số Việt Nam, còn khá thấp so với các quốc gia khác. Tuy nhiên, điều này sẽ thay đổi rất nhanh chóng và sẽ đạt hơn 30% vào năm 2050, đồng nghĩa với việc chi tiêu xã hội cho y tế và hưu trí sẽ tăng đáng kể. Như vậy, chính phủ cần tìm cách tài trợ cho chi tiêu xã hội và làm thay đổi phát triển mô hình xã hội Việt Nam. RFI : Gần đây thiệt hại do thiên tai gây ra ở Việt Nam cũng được đề cập. Theo đánh giá sơ bộ, thiệt hại này chiếm khoảng 2% GDP. Liệu đây có phải là một tác động cần được xem xét cho tăng trưởng ở Việt Nam ? Hubert Testard : Như chúng ta đã biết, biến đổi khí hậu vẫn đang tiếp tục gây ra những tác động, và Việt Nam nằm trong số những nước bị tác động nặng. Chị nhắc đến khoảng 2%, nhưng có khả năng con số này sẽ tăng lên trong những năm tới. Điều đó có nghĩa là, chúng ta không nên kỳ vọng vào việc các cú sốc khí hậu sẽ giảm đi, mà ngược lại sẽ gia tăng. Vì vậy, ở điểm này, Việt Nam cần đầu tư nhiều hơn để có thể ứng phó với những cú sốc trong tương lai. Ngoài ra còn có một khía cạnh khác, đó là quá trình chuyển đổi năng lượng của Việt Nam nhằm giảm phát khí thải gây hiệu ứng nhà kính. Đây cũng là một dự án đầu tư lớn được tiến hành tại Việt Nam. Có thể thấy là có nhiều dự án đã được khởi động, mọi việc tiến triển, nhưng vẫn còn rất xa mục tiêu được đặt ra cho năm 2050. Cho nên chính phủ Việt Nam vẫn còn rất nhiều việc phải làm. RFI Tiếng Việt xin chân thành cảm ơn chuyên gia Hubert Testard, tổng biên tập báo mạng Asialyst chuyên về châu Á.  (1) Quốc hội thảo luận mục tiêu tăng trưởng 2026 từ 10%, GDP đầu người đạt 5.500 USD 2/ Chính phủ đặt mục tiêu GDP năm 2026 tăng 10%

「高市政権の経済対策が大きな焦点に　GDP速報値6期ぶりのマイナス成長…輸出がトランプ関税などで1.2%減少」　トランプ関税の影響が広がる中、日本経済が6四半期ぶりのマイナス成長となりました。内閣府が発表した2025年7月から9月のGDP（国内総生産）の速報値は、物価変動の影響を除いた実質で、前の3カ月と比べ、マイナス0.4％でした。これが1年間続いた場合の年率換算では、マイナス1.8％となり、6四半期ぶりのマイナスとなりました。全体を押し下げたのは「輸出」で、トランプ政権の関税措置により自動車輸出が減少した影響で、マイナス1.2％となりました。GDPの半分以上を占める「個人消費」はプラス0.1％で、猛暑の影響で飲料が伸びたものの、秋物衣料の販売がふるわず、小幅な伸びにとどまりました。日本経済がマイナス成長へと失速したことで、高市政権が今週21日にとりまとめる見通しの経済対策で景気をどう支えるかが大きな焦点になります。物価高の影響で個人消費は力強さを欠き、生活の向上を実感しにくい状態が続いています。経済対策には、ガソリンや軽油の減税や電気・ガス料金の補助、おこめ券などを想定した交付金などが盛り込まれ、全体の規模は17兆円を超えて膨らむ見通しです。「強い経済」を実現し、景気を上向き軌道にのせられるのか、大型の経済対策は規模に見合った実効性を問われることになります。

Miért ilyen pazarló a magyar állam? Hogyan lettünk tök utolsók a vásárolt fogyasztásban és a tényleges egyéni fogyasztásban az EU-ban? Miért hagyott le minket Románia és Bulgária? És mi köze mindehhez a növekvő hazai jövedelmi egyenlőtlenségeknek? Oblath Gábor közgazdásszal, a Kopint-Tárki kutatójával beszélgettünk.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this week's episode  we take a look at airport development and specifically how, contrary to popular believe, it can actually positively benefit local communities.To do this we are going to focus on Luton Rising, the community-owned owner of London Luton Airport and the driving force behind one of the UK's most ambitious aviation expansion projects — a £2.4 billion investment that will increase capacity from 19 to 32 million passengers per year through the development of a second terminal. And at the heart of the plan is Nick Platts, Managing Director of Luton Rising. For the last two and a half years he has been immersed in this vast and ambitious project and used his experience from working in aviation and logistic around the world and last April successfully achieved a Design Consent Order – DCO for this important piece of Nationally Significant Infrastructure.But this is far more than a transport or infrastructure story. As the UK's only 100% community-owned airport, Luton Rising channels its profits directly back into local services and community projects — over half a billion pounds since 1997.As such, the project represents not only a major boost for the regional economy — contributing an estimated £1.5 billion annually to GDP and creating thousands of jobs — but also a pioneering example of how growth, sustainability, and social value can align under public ownership.So lots to talk about as we explore what makes the Luton Rising model so distinctive, and how it navigated the complex Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project process, to get to the starting blocks ready to turn ambition into reality.ResourcesLuton Rising expansion plansLuton Rising websiteLondon Luton AirportLuton Rising DCO for expansionLuton Borough Council UK Government policy on airport expansion

John Chang breaks down the latest economic and market signals after a week of meetings in New York City. He explains how the temporary government funding deal both alleviates short-term pressures and extends broader uncertainty—impacting GDP, consumer spending, and investor sentiment. John also unpacks capital flows, interest-rate volatility tied to upcoming Federal Reserve changes, and why debt availability is improving even as risk factors persist. He contrasts Sun Belt oversupply with strong performance in low-construction markets, and ultimately argues that today's elevated cap rates and stable debt costs may represent a rare “sweet spot” for long-term investors. Alternative Fund IV is closing soon and SMK is giving Best Ever listeners exclusive access to their Founders' Shares, typically offered only to early investors. Visit smkcap.com/bec to learn more and download the full fund summary. Join us at Best Ever Conference 2026! Find more info at: https://www.besteverconference.com/  Join the Best Ever Community  The Best Ever Community is live and growing - and we want serious commercial real estate investors like you inside. It's free to join, but you must apply and meet the criteria.  Connect with top operators, LPs, GPs, and more, get real insights, and be part of a curated network built to help you grow. Apply now at⁠ ⁠⁠⁠www.bestevercommunity.com⁠⁠ Podcast production done by⁠ ⁠Outlier Audio⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“Predictions are hard,” Yogi Berra once quipped, “especially about the future”. Yes they are. But in today's AI boom/bubble, how exactly can we predict the future? According to Silicon Valley venture capitalist Aman Verjee, access to the future lies in the past. In his new book, A Brief History of Financial Bubbles, Verjee looks at history - particularly the 17th century Dutch tulip mania and the railway mania of 19th century England - to make sense of today's tech economics. So what does history teach us about the current AI exuberance: boom or bubble? The Stanford and Harvard-educated Verjee, a member of the PayPal Mafia who wrote the company's first business plan with Peter Thiel, and who now runs his own venture fund, brings both historical perspective and insider experience to this multi-trillion-dollar question. Today's market is overheated, the VC warns, but it's more nuanced than 1999. The MAG-7 companies are genuinely profitable, unlike the dotcom darlings. Nvidia isn't Cisco. Yet “lazy circularity” in AI deal-making and pre-seed valuations hitting $50 million suggests traditional symptoms of irrational exuberance are returning. Even Yogi Berra might predict that. * Every bubble has believers who insist “this time is different” - and sometimes they're right. Verjee argues that the 1999 dotcom bubble actually created lasting value through companies like Amazon, PayPal, and the infrastructure that powered the next two decades of growth. But the concurrent telecom bubble destroyed far more wealth through outright fraud at companies like Enron and WorldCom.* Bubbles always occur in the world's richest country during periods of unchallenged hegemony. Britain dominated globally during its 1840s railway mania. America was the sole superpower during the dotcom boom. Today's AI frenzy coincides with American technological dominance - but also with a genuine rival in China, making this bubble fundamentally different from its predecessors.* The current market shows dangerous signs but isn't 1999. Unlike the dotcom era when 99% of fiber optic cable laid was “dark” (unused), Nvidia could double GPU production and still sell every chip. The MAG-7 trade at 27-29 times earnings versus the S&P 500's 70x multiple in 2000. Real profitability matters - but $50 million pre-seed valuations and circular revenue deals between AI companies echo familiar patterns of excess.* Government intervention in markets rarely ends well. Verjee warns against America adopting an industrial policy of “picking winners” - pointing to Japan's 1980s bubble as a cautionary tale. Thirty-five years after its collapse, Japan's GDP per capita remains unchanged. OpenAI is not too big to fail, and shouldn't be treated as such.* Immigration fuels American innovation - full stop. When anti-H1B voices argue for restricting skilled immigration, Verjee points to the counter-evidence: Elon Musk, Sergey Brin, Sundar Pichai, Satya Nadella, Max Levchin, and himself - all H1B visa holders who created millions of American jobs and trillions in shareholder value. Closing that pipeline would be economically suicidal.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of The Trawl, Jemma and Marina dive head-first into a planet-sized pile of billionaire bullshit — starting with the news that Elon Musk is on track to become the world's first trillionaire. Yes, trillionaire. As in: “bigger than the GDP of Saudi Arabia” trillionaire.They roll out a brand-new listener-made jingle for the “Trickle Down Update of the Week” and ask: What on earth is Tesla doing? internet?And as the Epstein situation develops, Trump is playing chicken with the food-stamp programme that keeps 42 million Americans fed. Payments frozen, families panicking, the Supreme Court involved, and Trump using hunger as a bargaining chip. Marina and Jemma discuss the fallout, the food-bank queues, the voters caught in the middle, and the grim Oval Office moment that shows exactly how little he cares.Then: chaos at The New York Times, where a catastrophically misjudged opinion piece sparks the question: who keeps approving this?!And finally, JoJoFromJerz delivers pudding - a clip that lands somewhere between cathartic, furious, poignant and funny.Enjoy!Thank you for sharing and do tweet us @MarinaPurkiss @jemmaforte @TheTrawlPodcast Patreonhttps://patreon.com/TheTrawlPodcast Youtubehttps://www.youtube.com/@TheTrawl Twitterhttps://twitter.com/TheTrawlPodcastIf you've even mildly enjoyed The Trawl, you'll love the unfiltered, no-holds-barred extras from Jemma & Marina over on Patreon, including:• Exclusive episodes of The Trawl Goss – where Jemma and Marina spill backstage gossip, dive into their personal lives, and often forget the mic is on• Early access to The Trawl Meets…• Glorious ad-free episodesPlus, there's a bell-free community of over 3,300 legends sparking brilliant chat.And it's your way to support the pod which the ladies pour their hearts, souls (and occasional anxiety) into. All for your listening pleasure and reassurance that through this geopolitical s**tstorm… you're not alone.Come join the fun:https://www.patreon.com/TheTrawlPodcast?utm_campaign=creatorshare_creator Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Nvidia, Walmart, and Target. In the UK – a look ahead to the European Business Summit. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan’s upcoming GDP report. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to earnings from Nvidia, Walmart, and Target. In the UK – a look ahead to the European Business Summit. In Asia – a look ahead to Japan’s upcoming GDP report. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SHOW 11-13-25 CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT BUNDESTAG COHESION AND  STABILITY. FIRST HOUR 9-915 1/2 Anatol Lieven discusses the war in Ukraine, noting the new Russian unit RubiKon hunting drone operators and the slow Russian advance on Pakovsk, aided by both innovation and old factors like fog. The conversation also covers Germany's military rearmament plans and the significant, rising influence of the populist right AFD party in German politics, which is strongly anti-immigrant and largely anti-rearmament. Guest: Anatol Lieven. 1/2 915-930 2/2 Anatol Lieven details UK Prime Minister Starmer's genuine political troubles concerning domestic policy drift and significant potential losses in upcoming regional elections. Starmer maintains prestige supporting Ukraine, though funding remains a question. A back channel to Moscow has been opened by Jonathan Powell to discuss peace, dropping the prior insistence on a ceasefire, indicating a shift in London. Guest: Anatol Lieven. 2/2 930-945 Chris Riegel, CEO of SCALA.com, states that Chinese claims of matching Nvidia's high-end chip success are largely propaganda, though China mandates domestic chip use. The US holds the AI "pole position." AI is a genuine profit driver, worth trillions to GDP, with material workforce impact expected by 2026. Guest: Chris Riegel 945-1000 Mary Anastasia O'grady reports on the assassination of Mayor Carlos Monzo in Michoacán, killed after leaving President Sheinbaum's Morena party and aggressively confronting cartels and their agricultural extortion. Sheinbaum has cooperated smartly with the US, allowing surveillance flights, and hired credible security chief García Haruch. The main challenge is whether Sheinbaum has the political will to confront the cartels, especially given the widespread belief in Morena's complicity. Guest: Mary Anastasia O'Grady. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Cliff May discusses severe Christian persecution in Nigeria, which President Tinubu claims guarantees religious liberty. Attacks are carried out by Boko Haram, ISWAP, and powerful Fulani militias. May suggests jihadism acts as theological justification for Fulani nomadic herders to seize land from Christian farmers. The US could provide assistance, training, and advice to the Nigerian military to protect communities. Guest: Cliff May. 1015-1030 Sadanand Dhume examines the shift in US foreign policy, where President Trump now favors Pakistan and its military chief, General Munir. This followed intense combat between India and Pakistan after a horrific terrorist attack. When the US mediated a ceasefire, Trump took credit, which embarrassed Indian Prime Minister Modi. Pakistan cleverly thanked Trump and nominated him for a Nobel Peace Prize, securing his favor over India. India now needs a trade deal. Guest: Sadanand Dhume. 1030-1045 Professor Matthew Graham discusses the most powerful black hole flare ever recorded, which shone like 10 trillion suns from an Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN). Material falling into the supermassive black hole forms an accretion disc, releasing intense radiation. This 10-billion-year-old event was detected using computer cameras. Graham explains that these black holes are ancient "seeds" of galaxies, acting as cosmic vacuum cleaners, such as when a large star gets shredded. Guest: Professor Matthew Graham. 1/2 1045-1100 Professor Matthew Graham details his needs for future black hole research, prioritizing a network of space telescopes with large fields of view, like the Roman space telescope, for perpetual, multi-wavelength monitoring of the sky. This "audit of the cosmos" will improve detection speed and timing. Graham encourages students to pursue black hole work, noting it is a vibrant growth area, viewing black holes as the enduring future product of the universe. Guest: Professor Matthew Graham.2/2 THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Veronique de Rugy discusses the cost of living, critiquing the administration's claims that Thanksgiving dinner is cheaper, citing the use of shrinkflation and item removal. She criticizes the proposal to send $2,000 checks, noting this Keynesian approach boosts demand, which, without increased supply, risks raising prices further. De Rugy advocates for deregulation and the elimination of tariffs (which she confirms are a tax) as the necessary supply-side solution to the affordability crisis. Guest: Veronique de Rugy. 1115-1130 Conrad Black assesses Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's new budget as anti-climactic, failing to deliver promised growth or definitive decisions on controversial policies like pipelines. However, the budget was sensible and conciliatory, avoiding conflict with the opposition, Washington, and Alberta. Carney, adopting a diplomatic style akin to a central banker, did offer serious encouragements to alleviate the housing shortage. Guest: Conrad Black. 1130-1145 Scott Winship analyzes 50 years of US median earnings, preferring the MACPI to accurately adjust for cost of living. He finds that the middle class is better off: women's earnings are up 120%, and men's are up 40–50%. Winship disputes populist theories that income inequality or the China shock are the main villains, noting that the worst period for young men was 1973–1989, predating those factors. Guest: Scott Winship.1/2 1145-1200 Scott Winship investigates the mystery of the decline in young men's earnings between 1973 and 1989. He concludes this period was not caused by accelerated immigration or women entering the workforce, as men's earnings continued to rise. The actual explanation is the unique economic combination of stagflation—high unemployment and very high inflation—that occurred until the early 1980s recession. This severe economic dynamic has not been matched since 1989. Guest: Scott Winship. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 The arrival of the US carrier Gerald Ford signals an escalating commitment to possible military solutions against Maduro's regime in Venezuela. Maduro has ordered a Cuban-style guerrilla defense, but analysts worry more about "anarchization"—wreaking havoc—if he falls. Removing Maduro and lifting sanctions could lead to necessary refinancing of Venezuela's $170 billion debt. Guest: Evan Ellis. 1/4 1215-1230 Peru faces severe political instability, evidenced by six presidents in two years and detentions for corruption. Transitional leader José Heresi is tackling rising organized crime, including a 36% jump in homicides, through a state of emergency. Meanwhile, China maintains deep-seated influence, controlling key sectors like mining, oil, and the deep-water port of Chancay. Guest: Evan Ellis.2/4 1230-1245 Honduras is holding a high-stakes, single-round election where the outcome could determine if the country returns to alignment with Taiwan or shifts to China. Election observers noted improper pressure and concerns about meddling by the ruling Libre Party. Separately, Argentina's economy under Milei is strengthening, backed by a significant US currency swap and political support. Guest: Evan Ellis. 3/4 1245-100 AM COP 30 is largely "political theater" with commitments insufficient to address climate change. Estimates suggest the crucial 1.5-degree global temperature increase will be reached by 2030. While there is increased international attention, funding remains inadequate; Brazil secured only $5.5 billion toward its $125 billion forest preservation goal. The plight of Amazonian indigenous peoples continues unaddressed. Guest: Evan Ellis.4/4 | 

Chris Riegel, CEO of SCALA.com, states that Chinese claims of matching Nvidia's high-end chip success are largely propaganda, though China mandates domestic chip use. The US holds the AI "pole position." AI is a genuine profit driver, worth trillions to GDP, with material workforce impact expected by 2026. Guest: Chris Riegel

Shelly Antoniewicz spotlights the economy and consumer, saying the government could probably easily release the September jobs data, but October might be trickier. “The employment picture data is going to be critically important to the Fed's decision” around rates in December, she stresses. Shelly gives her forecast for 2025 GDP and comments on the state of the consumer into the holiday season.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Vancouver's housing market is in worse shape today than five years ago. Not because of Trump or the economy or market cycles, but because of misguided policies that have fundamentally undermined property rights and destroyed real estate value. SFU Finance professor Andrey Pavlov sits down with Adam & Matt to deliver his unflinching analysis of BC's housing crisis, revealing how measures like speculation taxes and rent controls have backfired spectacularly. From Canada's shocking 22nd-place global ranking in GDP per capita to the hidden dangers of converting condos to rentals, this conversation challenges every assumption about what's really broken in Vancouver real estate. What makes the speculation tax the most destructive policy in BC history? Is government-imposed risk the actual driving force for our current market stagnation? And is Vancouver actually in a full-blown recession that nobody's talking about? Don't miss this provocative reality check on Vancouver's housing future!

As Prime Minister Mark Carney announces a new fossil fuel project, delegates at the COP30 summit are asking — how serious is Canada's commitment to the environment?And: The Parliamentary Budget Officer predicts the Liberals will blow past many of the projections set out in last week's budget. And he says it's unlikely the government will meet its goal of shrinking the deficit as a share of GDP.Also: It's Grey Cup weekend — the last under the CFL's current rules. Fans and players are wondering if changes to how the game is played take away from what makes the Canadian game distinct.Plus: Venezuela's president warns the U.S. not to launch a war, a war of words over streaming in Quebec, the end of speed cameras in Ontario, and more.

On February 27, 2022, three days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Olaf Scholz, who was then the Chancellor of Germany, gave a speech to an emergency session of the German parliament at which he described the attack as a Zeitenwende – an historic turning point. This watershed moment, he declared, meant “that the world afterwards will no longer be the same as the world before. The issue at the heart of this [change] is whether power is allowed to prevail over the law: whether we permit Putin to turn back the clock to the nineteenth century and the age of great powers, or whether we have it in us to keep warmongers like Putin in check. That requires strength of our own.” He announced a major restructuring of the country's cautious defense policy, including billions for modernization of the military and a promise that defense spending would exceed 2 percent of Germany's GDP, a level of spending that Scholz's party (the Social Democrats) traditionally had opposed. Three years later, Germany has a new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who leads the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). He succeeded in amending Germany's constitution to lift the so-called “debt brake,” which means that the country will spend significantly more on defense as well as hundreds of billions on related infrastructure over the next ten years. But will it be enough to allow Germany to deter Russian aggression against Europe — particularly if the United States under Trump withdraws from its post-1945 role as the guarantor of European security? Can Germany develop a defense industry that can deliver under wartime conditions? Can Germany take on the leadership role in Europe that it long has been reluctant to assume — and will other countries accept Germany in this role?Jan Techau is a director with the Eurasia Group's Europe team, covering Germany and European security. He is also a senior fellow with the Transatlantic Defense and Security Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis. From 2020 to 2023, he served in the German government as head of speechwriting for three ministers in the German Ministry of Defense. In this podcast interview, he discusses the European reaction to Trump's reelection, the likelihood of Germany's being able to make the physical and psychological adjustments it would need in order to become the principal provider of conventional deterrence in Europe, the rise of anti-Americanism in Germany on both the left and right, and whether Europeans are capable of keeping peace on the continent without the help of the Americans. He also explains his 2016 diagnosis of what he called “sophisticated state failure,” which long before the Abundance movement was dreamed of predicted that highly developed countries would find it increasingly difficult to get anything done, and that this paralysis would provide an opening for populist uprisings all over the world. “The only lasting way out of sophisticated state failure,” he concluded, “is for responsible politicians to worry less about getting re-elected and start risking their political careers for things that need to be done.”

In this week's show Patrick Gray and Adam Boileau discuss the week's cybersecurity news, including: The KK Park scam compound in Myanmar gets blasted with actual dynamite China sentences more scammers TO DEATH While Singapore is opting to lash them with the cane Chinese security firm KnownSec leaks a bunch of documents Necromancy continues on NSO Group, with a Trump associate in charge OWASP freshens up the Top 10, you won't believe what's number three! This week's episode is sponsored by Thinkst Canary. Big bird Haroon Meer joins and, as usual, makes a good point. If you're going to trust a vendor to do something risky like put a box on your network, they have an obligation to explain how they make that safe. Thinkst has a /security page that does exactly that. So why do we let Palo Alto and Fortinet get away with “trust me, bro”? This episode is also available on Youtube. Show notes Myanmar Junta Dynamites Scam Hub in PR Move as Global Pressure Grows China sentences 5 Myanmar scam kingpins to death | The Record from Recorded Future News Law passed for scammers, mules to be caned after victims in Singapore lose almost $4b since 2020 | The Straits Times KnownSec breach: What we know so far. - NetAskari Risky Bulletin: Another Chinese security firm has its data leaked Inside Congress Live The Government Shutdown Is a Ticking Cybersecurity Time Bomb | WIRED Former Trump official named NSO Group executive chairman | The Record from Recorded Future News Short-term renewal of cyber information sharing law appears in bill to end shutdown | The Record from Recorded Future News Jaguar Land Rover hack hurt the U.K.'s GDP, Bank of England says Monetary Policy Report - November 2025 | Bank of England SonicWall says state-linked actor behind attacks against cloud backup service | Cybersecurity Dive Japanese media giant Nikkei reports Slack breach exposing employee and partner records | The Record from Recorded Future News "Intel sues former employee for allegedly stealing confidential data" Post by @campuscodi.risky.biz — Bluesky Introduction - OWASP Top 10:2025 RC1