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HEADLINE: China's Economic Contradictions: Deflation and Consumer Wariness Undermine GDP Growth ClaimsGUEST NAME: Fraser Howie SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Fraser Howie about China facing severe economic contradictions despite high World Bank forecasts. Deflation remains rampant with frequently negative CPI and PPI figures. Consumer wariness and high youth unemployment at one in seven persist throughout the economy. The GDP growth figure is viewed as untrustworthy, manufactured through debt in a command economy. Decreased container ship arrivals point to limited actual growth, exacerbated by higher US tariffs. Economic reforms appear unlikely as centralization under Xi Jinping continues.
CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR 1900 KYIV THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS THAT CONGRESS IS CAPABLE OF CUTTING SPENDING..... 10-8-25 FIRST HOUR 9-915 HEADLINE: Arab Intellectuals Fail Palestinians by Prioritizing Populism and Victimhood Narrative in Gaza ConflictGUEST NAME: Hussain Abdul-Hussain SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Hussain Abdul-Hussain about Hamas utilizing the power of victimhood to justify atrocities and vilify opponents. Arab and Muslim intellectuals have failed Palestinians by prioritizing populism over introspection and self-critique. Regional actors like Egypt prioritize populist narratives over national interests, exemplified by refusing to open the Sinai border despite humanitarian suffering. The key recommendation is challenging the narrative and fostering a reliable, mature Palestinian government. 915-930 HEADLINE: Arab Intellectuals Fail Palestinians by Prioritizing Populism and Victimhood Narrative in Gaza ConflictGUEST NAME: Hussain Abdul-Hussain SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Hussain Abdul-Hussain about Hamas utilizing the power of victimhood to justify atrocities and vilify opponents. Arab and Muslim intellectuals have failed Palestinians by prioritizing populism over introspection and self-critique. Regional actors like Egypt prioritize populist narratives over national interests, exemplified by refusing to open the Sinai border despite humanitarian suffering. The key recommendation is challenging the narrative and fostering a reliable, mature Palestinian government. 930-945 HEADLINE: Russian Oil and Gas Revenue Squeezed as Prices Drop, Turkey Shifts to US LNG, and China Delays Pipeline GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Michael Bernstam about Russia facing severe budget pressure due to declining oil prices projected to reach $40 per barrel for Russian oil and global oil surplus. Turkey, a major buyer, is abandoning Russian natural gas after signing a 20-year LNG contract with the US. Russia refuses Indian rupee payments, demanding Chinese renminbi, which India lacks. China has stalled the major Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project indefinitely. Russia utilizes stablecoin and Bitcoin via Central Asian banks to circumvent payment sanctions. 945-1000 HEADLINE: UN Snapback Sanctions Imposed on Iran; Debate Over Nuclear Dismantlement and Enrichment GUEST NAME: Andrea Stricker SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Andrea Stricker about the US and Europe securing the snapback of UN sanctions against Iran after 2015 JCPOA restrictions expired. Iran's non-compliance with inspection demands triggered these severe sanctions. The discussion covers the need for full dismantlement of Iran's nuclear program, including both enrichment and weaponization capabilities, to avoid future conflict. Concerns persist about Iran potentially retaining enrichment capabilities through low-level enrichment proposals and its continued non-cooperation with IAEA inspections. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 HEADLINE: Commodities Rise and UK Flag Controversy: French Weather, Market Trends, and British Politics GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Simon Constable about key commodities like copper up 16% and steel up 15% signaling strong economic demand. Coffee prices remain very high at 52% increase. The conversation addresses French political turmoil, though non-citizens cannot vote. In the UK, the St. George's flag has become highly controversial, viewed by some as associated with racism, unlike the Union Jack. This flag controversy reflects a desire among segments like the white working class to assert English identity. 1015-1030 HEADLINE: Commodities Rise and UK Flag Controversy: French Weather, Market Trends, and British Politics GUEST NAME: Simon Constable SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Simon Constable about key commodities like copper up 16% and steel up 15% signaling strong economic demand. Coffee prices remain very high at 52% increase. The conversation addresses French political turmoil, though non-citizens cannot vote. In the UK, the St. George's flag has become highly controversial, viewed by some as associated with racism, unlike the Union Jack. This flag controversy reflects a desire among segments like the white working class to assert English identity. 1030-1045 HEADLINE: China's Economic Contradictions: Deflation and Consumer Wariness Undermine GDP Growth ClaimsGUEST NAME: Fraser Howie SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Fraser Howie about China facing severe economic contradictions despite high World Bank forecasts. Deflation remains rampant with frequently negative CPI and PPI figures. Consumer wariness and high youth unemployment at one in seven persist throughout the economy. The GDP growth figure is viewed as untrustworthy, manufactured through debt in a command economy. Decreased container ship arrivals point to limited actual growth, exacerbated by higher US tariffs. Economic reforms appear unlikely as centralization under Xi Jinping continues. 1045-1100 HEADLINE: Takaichi Sanae Elected LDP Head, Faces Coalition Challenge to Become Japan's First Female Prime Minister GUEST NAME: Lance Gatling SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Lance Gatling about Takaichi Sanae being elected head of Japan's LDP, positioning her to potentially become the first female Prime Minister. A conservative figure, she supports visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine. Her immediate challenge is forming a majority coalition, as the junior partner Komeito disagrees with her conservative positions and social policies. President Trump praised her election, signaling potential for strong bilateral relations. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 VHEADLINE: DeepSeek AI: Chinese LLM Performance and Security Flaws Revealed Amid Semiconductor Export Circumvention GUEST NAME: Jack Burnham SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Jack Burnham about competition in Large Language Models between the US and China's DeepSeek. A NIST study found US models superior in software engineering, though DeepSeek showed parity in scientific questions. Critically, DeepSeek models exhibited significant security flaws. China attempts to circumvent US export controls on GPUs by smuggling and using cloud computing centers in Southeast Asia. Additionally, China aims to dominate global telecommunications through control of supply chains and legal mechanisms granting the CCP access to firm data.E V 1115-1130 HEADLINE: DeepSeek AI: Chinese LLM Performance and Security Flaws Revealed Amid Semiconductor Export Circumvention GUEST NAME: Jack Burnham SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Jack Burnham about competition in Large Language Models between the US and China's DeepSeek. A NIST study found US models superior in software engineering, though DeepSeek showed parity in scientific questions. Critically, DeepSeek models exhibited significant security flaws. China attempts to circumvent US export controls on GPUs by smuggling and using cloud computing centers in Southeast Asia. Additionally, China aims to dominate global telecommunications through control of supply chains and legal mechanisms granting the CCP access to firm data. 1130-1145 HEADLINE: Taiwanese Influencer Charged for Threatening President; Mainland Chinese Influence Tactics ExposedGUEST NAME: Mark Simon SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Mark Simon about internet personality Holger Chen under investigation in Taiwan for calling for President William Lai's decapitation. This highlights mainland Chinese influence operations utilizing influencers who push themes of military threat and Chinese greatness. Chen is suspected of having a mainland-affiliated paymaster due to lack of local commercial support. Taiwan's population primarily identifies as Taiwanese and is unnerved by constant military threats. A key propaganda goal is convincing Taiwan that the US will not intervene. 1145-1200 HEADLINE: Sentinel ICBM Modernization is Critical and Cost-Effective Deterrent Against Great Power CompetitionGUEST NAME: Peter Huessy SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Peter Huessy about the Sentinel program replacing aging 55-year-old Minuteman ICBMs, aiming for lower operating costs and improved capabilities. Cost overruns stem from necessary infrastructure upgrades, including replacing thousands of miles of digital command and control cabling and building new silos. Maintaining the ICBM deterrent is financially and strategically crucial, saving hundreds of billions compared to relying solely on submarines. The need for modernization reflects the end of the post-Cold War "holiday from history," requiring rebuilding against threats from China and Russia. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 HEADLINE: Supreme Court Battles Over Presidential Impoundment Authority and the Separation of Powers GUEST NAME: Josh Blackman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Josh Blackman about Supreme Court eras focusing on the separation of powers. Currently, the court is addressing presidential impoundment—the executive's authority to withhold appropriated funds. Earlier rulings, particularly 1975's Train v. City of New York, constrained this power. The Roberts Court appears sympathetic to reclaiming presidential authority lost during the Nixon era. The outcome of this ongoing litigation will determine the proper balance between executive and legislative branches. 1215-1230 HEADLINE: Supreme Court Battles Over Presidential Impoundment Authority and the Separation of Powers GUEST NAME: Josh Blackman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Josh Blackman about Supreme Court eras focusing on the separation of powers. Currently, the court is addressing presidential impoundment—the executive's authority to withhold appropriated funds. Earlier rulings, particularly 1975's Train v. City of New York, constrained this power. The Roberts Court appears sympathetic to reclaiming presidential authority lost during the Nixon era. The outcome of this ongoing litigation will determine the proper balance between executive and legislative branches. 1230-1245 HEADLINE: Space Force Awards Contracts to SpaceX and ULA; Juno Mission Ending, Launch Competition Heats UpGUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Bob Zimmerman about Space Force awarding over $1 billion in launch contracts to SpaceX for five launches and ULA for two launches, highlighting growing demand for launch services. ULA's non-reusable rockets contrast with SpaceX's cheaper, reusable approach, while Blue Origin continues to lag behind. Other developments include Firefly entering defense contracting through its Scitec acquisition, Rocket Lab securing additional commercial launches, and the likely end of the long-running Juno Jupiter mission due to budget constraints. 1245-100 AM HEADLINE: Space Force Awards Contracts to SpaceX and ULA; Juno Mission Ending, Launch Competition Heats UpGUEST NAME: Bob Zimmerman SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Bob Zimmerman about Space Force awarding over $1 billion in launch contracts to SpaceX for five launches and ULA for two launches, highlighting growing demand for launch services. ULA's non-reusable rockets contrast with SpaceX's cheaper, reusable approach, while Blue Origin continues to lag behind. Other developments include Firefly entering defense contracting through its Scitec acquisition, Rocket Lab securing additional commercial launches, and the likely end of the long-running Juno Jupiter mission due to budget constraints.
Sanae Takaichi is not just set to be the first female prime minister of Japan -- and someone whose childhood hero was the legendary Margaret Thatcher. She also launched her global claim to fame by saying she “wanted to abandon the idea of work-life balance” and planned to “have everyone work like a workhorse.” Well, this has generated some push back from people who are apparently happy with Japan's 0 percent real GDP growth for over 30 years. In today's episode, David analyzes why Takaichi is starting off as his favorite leader on the planet. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
From lawmakers cracking down on loud ads to Deloitte caught peddling AI-fabricated reports, this episode explores how tech's greatest promises and worst follies are colliding right now. No more loud commercials: Governor Newsom signs SB 576 | Governor of California ChatGPT Now Has 800 Million Weekly Active Users - Slashdot OpenAI will let developers build apps that work inside ChatGPT Senate Dem Report Finds Almost 100 Million Jobs Could Be Lost To AI - Slashdot Jony Ive's secretive AI hardware reportedly hit three problems Deloitte to refund Australian government after AI hallucinations found in report Anthropic and Deloitte Partner to Build AI Solutions for Regulated Industries America is now one big bet on AI The flawed Silicon Valley consensus on AI Data centers responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year Martin Peers: The AI Profit Fantasy A Debate About A.I. Plays Out on the Subway Walls Insurers hesitate at multibillion-dollar claims faced by OpenAI, Anthropic in AI lawsuits Slop factory worries about slop: MrBeast says AI could threaten creators' livelihoods, calling it 'scary times' for the industry CAN LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS DEVELOP GAMBLING ADDICTION? Sycophantic AI Decreases Prosocial Intentions and Promotes Dependence Have we passed peak social media? As Elon Musk Preps Tesla's Optimus for Prime Time, Big Hurdles Remain OpenAI signs huge chip deal with AMD, and AMD stock soars Google CodeMender Introducing the Gemini 2.5 Computer Use model Young People Are Falling in Love With Old Technology Our friend Glenn Hosts: Leo Laporte, Jeff Jarvis, and Paris Martineau Download or subscribe to Intelligent Machines at https://twit.tv/shows/intelligent-machines. Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: zapier.com/machines agntcy.org fieldofgreens.com Promo Code "IM" pantheon.io
From lawmakers cracking down on loud ads to Deloitte caught peddling AI-fabricated reports, this episode explores how tech's greatest promises and worst follies are colliding right now. No more loud commercials: Governor Newsom signs SB 576 | Governor of California ChatGPT Now Has 800 Million Weekly Active Users - Slashdot OpenAI will let developers build apps that work inside ChatGPT Senate Dem Report Finds Almost 100 Million Jobs Could Be Lost To AI - Slashdot Jony Ive's secretive AI hardware reportedly hit three problems Deloitte to refund Australian government after AI hallucinations found in report Anthropic and Deloitte Partner to Build AI Solutions for Regulated Industries America is now one big bet on AI The flawed Silicon Valley consensus on AI Data centers responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year Martin Peers: The AI Profit Fantasy A Debate About A.I. Plays Out on the Subway Walls Insurers hesitate at multibillion-dollar claims faced by OpenAI, Anthropic in AI lawsuits Slop factory worries about slop: MrBeast says AI could threaten creators' livelihoods, calling it 'scary times' for the industry CAN LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS DEVELOP GAMBLING ADDICTION? Sycophantic AI Decreases Prosocial Intentions and Promotes Dependence Have we passed peak social media? As Elon Musk Preps Tesla's Optimus for Prime Time, Big Hurdles Remain OpenAI signs huge chip deal with AMD, and AMD stock soars Google CodeMender Introducing the Gemini 2.5 Computer Use model Young People Are Falling in Love With Old Technology Our friend Glenn Hosts: Leo Laporte, Jeff Jarvis, and Paris Martineau Download or subscribe to Intelligent Machines at https://twit.tv/shows/intelligent-machines. Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: zapier.com/machines agntcy.org fieldofgreens.com Promo Code "IM" pantheon.io
Willy sat down with renowned economist Dr. Peter Linneman for another installment of the Most Insightful Hour in CRE where they unpacked the latest insights from the Fall Linneman Letter. Peter shared his perspective on the forces shaping today's economy, including GDP growth, hidden weakness in the labor market, Fed rate cut predictions, whether deficits and government shutdowns really matter, the housing market, oil prices, and what the uneven real estate recovery means for investors across all asset classes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
From lawmakers cracking down on loud ads to Deloitte caught peddling AI-fabricated reports, this episode explores how tech's greatest promises and worst follies are colliding right now. No more loud commercials: Governor Newsom signs SB 576 | Governor of California ChatGPT Now Has 800 Million Weekly Active Users - Slashdot OpenAI will let developers build apps that work inside ChatGPT Senate Dem Report Finds Almost 100 Million Jobs Could Be Lost To AI - Slashdot Jony Ive's secretive AI hardware reportedly hit three problems Deloitte to refund Australian government after AI hallucinations found in report Anthropic and Deloitte Partner to Build AI Solutions for Regulated Industries America is now one big bet on AI The flawed Silicon Valley consensus on AI Data centers responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year Martin Peers: The AI Profit Fantasy A Debate About A.I. Plays Out on the Subway Walls Insurers hesitate at multibillion-dollar claims faced by OpenAI, Anthropic in AI lawsuits Slop factory worries about slop: MrBeast says AI could threaten creators' livelihoods, calling it 'scary times' for the industry CAN LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS DEVELOP GAMBLING ADDICTION? Sycophantic AI Decreases Prosocial Intentions and Promotes Dependence Have we passed peak social media? As Elon Musk Preps Tesla's Optimus for Prime Time, Big Hurdles Remain OpenAI signs huge chip deal with AMD, and AMD stock soars Google CodeMender Introducing the Gemini 2.5 Computer Use model Young People Are Falling in Love With Old Technology Our friend Glenn Hosts: Leo Laporte, Jeff Jarvis, and Paris Martineau Download or subscribe to Intelligent Machines at https://twit.tv/shows/intelligent-machines. Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: zapier.com/machines agntcy.org fieldofgreens.com Promo Code "IM" pantheon.io
From lawmakers cracking down on loud ads to Deloitte caught peddling AI-fabricated reports, this episode explores how tech's greatest promises and worst follies are colliding right now. No more loud commercials: Governor Newsom signs SB 576 | Governor of California ChatGPT Now Has 800 Million Weekly Active Users - Slashdot OpenAI will let developers build apps that work inside ChatGPT Senate Dem Report Finds Almost 100 Million Jobs Could Be Lost To AI - Slashdot Jony Ive's secretive AI hardware reportedly hit three problems Deloitte to refund Australian government after AI hallucinations found in report Anthropic and Deloitte Partner to Build AI Solutions for Regulated Industries America is now one big bet on AI The flawed Silicon Valley consensus on AI Data centers responsible for 92% of GDP growth in the first half of this year Martin Peers: The AI Profit Fantasy A Debate About A.I. Plays Out on the Subway Walls Insurers hesitate at multibillion-dollar claims faced by OpenAI, Anthropic in AI lawsuits Slop factory worries about slop: MrBeast says AI could threaten creators' livelihoods, calling it 'scary times' for the industry CAN LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS DEVELOP GAMBLING ADDICTION? Sycophantic AI Decreases Prosocial Intentions and Promotes Dependence Have we passed peak social media? As Elon Musk Preps Tesla's Optimus for Prime Time, Big Hurdles Remain OpenAI signs huge chip deal with AMD, and AMD stock soars Google CodeMender Introducing the Gemini 2.5 Computer Use model Young People Are Falling in Love With Old Technology Our friend Glenn Hosts: Leo Laporte, Jeff Jarvis, and Paris Martineau Download or subscribe to Intelligent Machines at https://twit.tv/shows/intelligent-machines. Join Club TWiT for Ad-Free Podcasts! Support what you love and get ad-free shows, a members-only Discord, and behind-the-scenes access. Join today: https://twit.tv/clubtwit Sponsors: zapier.com/machines agntcy.org fieldofgreens.com Promo Code "IM" pantheon.io
PREVIEW HEADLINE: Questioning the Validity of China's Increased GDP Expectations GUEST NAME: Fraser Howie SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Fraser Howie about the World Bank/IMF raising GDP expectations for China. Howie suggests these organizations reluctantly avoid public negativity about China and rely on models. He notes results depend entirely on inputs, calling the process "classic rubbish in, rubbish out."
PREVIEW HEADLINE: Questioning the Validity of China's Increased GDP Expectations GUEST NAME: Fraser Howie SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Fraser Howie about the World Bank/IMF raising GDP expectations for China. Howie suggests these organizations reluctantly avoid public negativity about China and rely on models. He notes results depend entirely on inputs, calling the process "classic rubbish in, rubbish out."
An extended U.S. government shutdown raises the risk for weaker growth potential. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas suggests key checkpoints that investors should keep in mind.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today: Three checkpoints we're watching for as the U.S. government shutdown continues. It's Wednesday, October 8th at 10:30am in New York. The federal government shutdown in the United States has crossed the one week mark. But if you're watching the markets, you might be surprised at how calm everything seems. Stocks are steady. Bond yields haven't moved much, and volatility's low. It's more or less the scenario my colleague Ariana and I had talked about in anticipation of the impasse in Washington. We'd noted the potential for uncertainty for investors and market reaction depending on how long the shutdown would last. So that raises a big question: what, if anything, about this government shutdown could shake investor confidence and start moving markets? The question is worth considering. Prediction markets now suggest the most likely outcome is that the government shutdown will not end for at least another week. And as we've seen in past shutdowns, the longer it drags on, the more likely it is to matter. That's because risks to the economic outlook start to accumulate, and investors eventually have to start pricing in a weaker growth outlook. There's a few checkpoints we're watching for – for when investors might start feeling this way. First, the missed paycheck for furloughed federal workers. The first instance of this comes in a few days. Less pay naturally means less spending. Studies suggest that spending among affected workers can drop by two to four percent during a shutdown. That's not huge for GDP at first; but it's a sign the shutdown is having effects beyond Washington, DC. Second, this time might be different because of potential layoffs. The administration has hinted that agencies could move to permanently cut staff — something we haven't seen before. Unions have already said they'd challenge that in court. But if those actions start, or even if legal uncertainty grows around them, it could raise the economic stakes. Third, we're watching for real disruptions to economic activity resulting from the shutdown. The last shutdown ended when air traffic in New York was curtailed due to a shortage of air traffic controllers. We're already seeing substantial air traffic delays across the country. More substantial delays or ground halts obviously impede economic activity related to travel. And if such actions don't coincide with signals from DC of progress in negotiating a bill to reopen the government, investors' concern could grow. So here's the bottom line: markets may be right to stay calm — for now. But the longer this shutdown lasts, the more likely one of these pressure points pushes investors to rethink their optimism. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.
More on the circular nature of the recent AI deals. AI now accounts for more debt issuance than US banks. AI companies consider using the billions they've raised to pay off lawsuits since they can't get insurance. Another way OpenAI is the new Microsoft. And at the end? Look at that! A non-AI story! OpenAI, Nvidia Fuel $1 Trillion AI Market With Web of Circular Deals (Bloomberg) Nvidia's Huang says he's surprised AMD offered OpenAI 10% of company in ‘clever' deal (CNBC) At $1.2 Trillion, More High-Grade Debt Now Tied to AI Than Banks (Bloomberg) Without data centers, GDP growth was 0.1% in the first half of 2025, Harvard economist says (Fortune) Insurers balk at multibillion-dollar claims faced by OpenAI and Anthropic (Financial Times) OpenAI Sneezes, and Software Firms Catch a Cold (Wired) Amazon Pharmacy introduces kiosks that can quickly dispense medications at the doctor's office (GeekWire) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The Debt-to-GDP ratio of the world's largest economies is rising at a frightening pace as reckless deficit spending has become the order of the day.This is increasingly pushing investors into asset classes that offer protection from the inflation/loss of fiat currency purchasing power that results.Meanwhile, the gargantuan buildout of processing power and electricity generation & transmission need for AI is unleashing a global era of "Mine, Baby, Mine".This, also, is enticing investors to own natural resources. Combined together, these two trends paint a very compelling picture of relentless demand for hard assets for the foreseeable future.So, how to take advantage of this trend?Jonathan Wellum, founder of Rocklinc Investment Partners, Thoughtful Money's endorsed Canadian financial advisor, shares how his firm is positioning.For the details, watch this video.YOU CAN STILL GET THE 'LAST CHANCE TO SAVE' PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#goldprice #oil #commodities _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.
Episode 23 of The Basic Income Show!Read: https://scottsantens.substack.com/p/the-reports-of-ubis-death-are-greatlyChapters:00:00 Plugging my newest article03:56 Comingle and Bootstraps updates08:20 Boulder, CO results20:58 Alameda, CA results33:06 Ithaca, NY results47:34 New Mexico launches universal childcare51:03 Flint, MI results1:02:51 New Jersey child poverty report1:08:20 New results from Ireland1:23:25 New results from Finland1:29:03 Child allowance average1:32:46 Tempe, AZ South Park pilot1:34:08 OutroSummary:This conversation delves into six recent studies of UBI via just released guaranteed basic income pilot results. The hosts discuss the psychological benefits of UBI, including increased hope and a sense of mattering, while also addressing in response to a viewer question the potential of cryptocurrency in funding these initiatives. They highlight the importance of community support and the positive outcomes observed in various UBI pilot programs, emphasizing the need for flexible support systems for caregivers and the broader implications of financial stability on mental health. In this conversation, the speakers discuss various aspects of universal basic income (UBI) and its implications on society, particularly focusing on recent developments in universal childcare programs, the RX Kids initiative in Flint, Michigan, and new health results of Finland's basic income study. They explore the positive outcomes of these programs on mental health, economic stability, and the arts, emphasizing the importance of universality in social support systems. The discussion also touches on the economic value of creativity and the need for a more comprehensive understanding of societal benefits beyond traditional metrics like GDP.See my ongoing compilation of UBI evidence on Bluesky:https://bsky.app/profile/scottsantens.com/post/3lckzcleo7s24See my ongoing compilation of UBI evidence on X: https://x.com/scottsantens/status/1766213155967955332US guaranteed basic income pilot result summaries:https://www.guaranteedincomeworks.org/researchFor more info about UBI, please refer to my UBI FAQ: http://scottsantens.com/basic-income-faqDonate to the Income To Support All Foundation to support UBI projects:https://www.itsafoundation.orgSubscribe to the ITSA Newsletter for monthly UBI news:https://itsanewsletter.beehiiv.com/subscribeVisit Basic Income Today for daily UBI news:https://basicincometoday.comSign up for the Comingle waitlist for voluntary UBI:https://www.comingle.usFollow Scott:https://linktr.ee/scottsantensFollow Conrad:https://bsky.app/profile/theubiguy.bsky.socialhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/conradshaw/Follow Josh:https://bsky.app/profile/misterjworth.bsky.socialhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/joshworth/Special thanks to: Gisele Huff, Haroon Mokhtarzada, Steven Grimm, Bob Weishaar, Dorothy Krahn, Judith Bliss, Lowell Aronoff, Jessica Chew, Katie Moussouris, David Ruark,Tricia Garrett, A.W.R., Daryl Smith, Larry Cohen, John Steinberger, Philip Rosedale, Liya Brook, Frederick Weber, Laurel gillespie, Dylan Hirsch-Shell, Tom Cooper, Robert Collins, Joanna Zarach, Mgmguy, Albert Wenger, Andrew Yang, Peter T Knight, Michael Finney, David Ihnen, Steve Roth, Miki Phagan, Walter Schaerer, Elizabeth Corker, Albert Daniel Brockman, Natalie Foster, Joe Ballou, Arjun ,' @Justin_Dart , Felix Ling, S, Jocelyn Hockings, Mark Donovan, Jason Clark, Chuck Cordes, Mark Broadgate, Leslie Kausch, Braden Ferrin , Juro Antal, centuryfalcon64, Deanna McHugh, Stephen Castro-Starkey, Tommy Caruso, and all my other patrons for their support.If you'd like to see your name here in future video descriptions, you can do so by becoming a patron on Patreon at the UBI Producer level or above: https://www.patreon.com/scottsantens/membership#universalbasicincome #BasicIncome #UBI
In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, tackle the market implications of the ongoing government shutdown, the surge in gold prices, and what investors should expect from the Fed. They also dig into the booming AI investment cycle, shifting momentum across market caps, and why the labor market remains resilient even as hiring slows.Key TakeawaysGold Shines Bright: Gold has remained on the rise, nearing $4,000 an ounce as central banks buy aggressively and inflation concerns persist.Shutdown, Not Slowdown: Despite Washington gridlock, the S&P 500 keeps hitting record highs. Historically, markets shrug off shutdowns and focus on Fed policy instead.Rate Cuts Coming: Fed futures signal multiple cuts starting this fall. Weak hiring but low layoffs point to a cooling, not collapsing, economy.AI Spending Surge: OpenAI, NVIDIA, AMD, and others are driving a wave of capital investment, with AI-related spending now accounting for roughly 6% of U.S. GDP.Market Momentum Builds: Strong seasonality, easing rates, and improving earnings expectations set the stage for a solid Q4, even as mid-caps lag under tariff pressure.Connect with Ryan: • LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick • X: @RyanDetrickConnect with Sonu: • LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese • X: @SonuVargheseQuestions about the show? We'd love to hear from you — factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #Gold #FederalReserve #AI #GovernmentShutdown #Investing #StockMarket #WealthManagement #EconomicOutlook #MarketInsights
Small and medium businesses make up nearly half of all employment and GDP, yet they often struggle to compete against the scale, brand power, and resources of large corporations. Too often, the advice given to them is to “play bigger”—but that's a losing battle. What if the real advantage lies in embracing their underdog status?In this episode of the Happiness Squad Podcast, Ashish Kothari sits down with Sri Kaza, Advisory Board at Markaaz and author of the upcoming book UNCONVENTION: A Small Business Strategy Guide, to explore how SMBs can thrive by leaning into what makes them different: positioning, proximity, and purpose. They discuss why small doesn't mean weak, and how founders can unlock resilience, loyalty, and growth by playing their own game.Sri Kaza is an entrepreneur, investor, and former McKinsey consultant with a career spanning engineering, consulting, finance, and startups. He has helped scale visionary companies like Viking Cruises, co-founded ForwardLine to provide innovative financing for small businesses, and worked closely with entrepreneurs across industries to unlock growth. Ashish and Sri unpack inspiring stories, actionable insights, and practical strategies that will change the way you think about leading and growing a small to medium business. Tune in to discover how to turn your size into your greatest strength.Things you will learn in this episode:• The three Underdog Principles—Positioning, Proximity, and Purpose—and how to apply them• Why focusing on your core customers builds resilience during crises• How closeness to employees and community becomes a competitive edge• How AI can serve as a growth engine for SMBs rather than just a cost-cutting tool• Practical ways to stay grounded as a founder and align every decision with purposeIf you want to discover how small and medium businesses can outcompete giants and make flourishing their competitive edge, this conversation is one you won't want to miss.✅Resources:• How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit by Alex Edmans: https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2020/10/01/how-great-companies-deliver-both-purpose-and-profit/ ✅Books:• Unconvention: A Small Business Strategy Guide by Sri Kaza: https://a.co/d/aYYfD8w • The Experimentation Machine by Jeff Bussgang: https://experimentationmachine.com/• Hardwired for happiness by Ashish Kothari: https://happinesssquad.com/hardwired-for-happiness/
Episode 193 with Samuel Efosa Austin, founder of ECO Africa, Tech for Good Africa, and the ECO Fund. Samuel is leading a bold mission to raise ₦100 billion in local currency to finance Africa's data infrastructure, proving that the continent can build and fund its own digital future.Samuel shares how verified data, technology, and local capital can drive inclusive growth across Africa. Through ECO Africa's integrated ecosystem, he is redefining economic measurement beyond GDP, investing in green data centres, AI-powered civic tools, and sustainability-driven platforms that connect communities, governments, and investors.He explains why verified data should be viewed as critical infrastructure, how to make data systems bankable for local investors, and what it will take to build trust and ownership within Africa's digital economy. Samuel also discusses how blended finance models can balance social impact and financial returns while unlocking a new asset class for African investors.What We Discuss With SamuelSamuel's journey from civic technology innovator to founder of ECO Africa and the ECO Fund.Why Africa must treat verified data as infrastructure, not a technology product.Mobilising ₦100 billion in local currency to fund Africa's digital future.Blending catalytic impact capital with commercial investment to build resilient data systems.Training Africa's next generation of technology leaders through the African Technology Leadership Academy.Reimagining Africa's economic future through data ownership, trust and local value creation.Verto CornerIn this week's Verto Corner, Megan Doherty, Director of Operations at Verto, explains why reducing payment friction is central to customer success and long term retention. She discusses how issues such as failed transactions, payout delays and foreign exchange errors do not just create costs but also damage trust. Megan shares how strong operational processes and the right technology can prevent these problems, ensuring reliability and transparency across every cross border payment. She also gives examples of how solving payment challenges has helped clients strengthen loyalty with their own customers.Access the Strategy HandbookDid you miss my previous episode where I discus Why Africa Holds the Key to Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Supply Chains? Make sure to check it out!Connect with Terser:LinkedIn - Terser AdamuInstagram - unlockingafricaTwitter (X) - @TerserAdamuConnect with Samuel:LinkedIn - Samuel Efosa-AustinTwitter - @ECOevangelistsDiscover how Verto's solutions can help you accept payments, manage expenses, and scale with ease here
President Trump has setup the economy to boom and the new economic data out shows large 3rd quarter GDP growth despite the Schumer Shutdown. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫从聊聊家电，聊聊当下。来自终身黑白。我最近买了一点美的，本来还持有格力，可能会考虑海尔，虽然也写了几篇文章，但是我看留言还是有不少朋友再问买入逻辑，今天就简单梳理一下，来个精简版。关注这三家企业，我主要看重的是空调的海外增量。如果把全球看做一个市场，空调的需求是非常充足的，且我们的出口，不是在某个地方有优势，而是遍地开花。2024年我国空调出口42.7%亚太地区、21.5%拉美，18.9%欧洲。根据海关总署数据，2024年受益于全球炎夏，我国空调出口量同比增长28.3%，除北美外其他地区均为增长，拉美地区增速高达46%。具体的需求逻辑上。东南亚及南美地区空调，随着收入提升需求提升。当前东南亚及南美地区空调挂机每百户保有量平均为30台/百户左右。而我国，2023年城镇每百户空调保有量171.7台，农村每百户空调保有量105.7台。假设东南亚及南美洲国家，长期能和我们农村对标，也有较大的增长空间。而北美和欧洲，家电普及较早基本进入了替换周期。同时随着天气气候的变化，以往很多不需要空调的欧美地区，也有了空调的需求。除此之外还有我之前聊过的中东非。中东非地区有几亿人逐步达到了4000多美元人均GDP这个节点，中国2010年人均GDP为4550美元。虽然人均GDP不能完全作为消费能力的对比，但基本上还是可以做一个参考的。这个GDP正是到了一个有一定余钱开始改善生活的阶段。简单的说。欧美替换周期、东南亚需求升级、中东非需求普及。所以这些年空调的出口增速一直不错，我国空调出口量从2015年的4067万台，提升至2024年8500万台，复合增长率9%。把三家空调龙头看做一家企业，优势明显。中国是全球最大的空调生产国，占全球空调产能的 80%，2024年占海外空调销售的78%。根据产业在线数据，2024年全球空调产能共3.7亿台，80%产能集中在中国，对应我国空调产能2.96亿台。而我国2024年总计出口8500万台空调，对应海外市场销售的空调78%来自中国。也就是说，如果你把美的、海尔、格力，看做一个整体的话，在全球这个市场他们竞争力是足够的。首先技术上，国内企业完全没短板，同时因为完整的供应链，较低的人工，成本又较低。因为内需增长放缓，同时海外的品牌培养也基本成熟，也到了发力阶段。这个发展逻辑和日本当年有些类似。引进技术，吸收技术、走向海外。我们看看日本家电的发展历程：萌芽期是1910-1955年，日本企业引进美国技术，在政策保护下初步实现家电产品国产化。成长期是1955-1973年，日本经济高速发展，人口数、房地产迅速提升，大家电快速普及，日企技术产品优势不断增强，初步开启海外市场征程。成熟期是 1973-1990 年，日本经济进入中速增长阶段，美日贸易摩擦升级，此时日企加速海外投入。1990 年后，日本经济下行及稳定，90年代初日本经济泡沫破灭。日本步入老龄化社会。房价下跌，消费较低迷。家电行业整体呈萎缩，企业快速发展海外市场。而海外的发展也基本分为三个阶段，低价切入、品牌升级期、全球本土化深耕期。当时的日本，低成本、高效率，以性价比优势领先。而当下我们同样是低成本，高效率，性价比领先。不同的是我国制造业规模更大，同时全球经济不断增长，当下需求更强。虽然这是一个有逻辑的机会，但路途并不容易。总的来说，国内进入了高替换周期，需求大致能稳定，不求增长但是保持现有收入难度不大。海外需求足够，目前国内企业有明显的竞争优势。三家企业估值尚可，格力7PE、美的13PE、海尔12PE，股息都不错。估值比较低，有长期的增长逻辑，当下分红稳定，且有一定的竞争优势，这个投资逻辑我认为是比较通顺的。作为企业家你必须三选一和对手竞争，作为投资人，我们是可以全都要的。当然了这是一个长期的逻辑，并不代表过程不艰辛。还是那句话过多强调长期的好，很容易让别人忽略了短期的难，也会忘记风险控制。这两年补贴下，家电是受益的，未来也大概率会有一个补贴结束后的阵痛期。所以，要有长期的心理准备，甚至要比你预计的更长。有一个著名的侯世达定律。40年前卡尼曼和特沃斯基就证明了，人们会经常低估完成某项任务所需的时间。这种现象被称为计划谬误。而闻名世界的认知科学家侯世达，也有同样的看法，他把这一规律戏称为侯世达定律，并且即使你已经考虑到了侯世达定律的影响，你花费的时间也总是比预期要长。你甚至不需要阅读什么文献资料，看看自己周围就能理解这一点，和朋友相约，你预计20分钟后见面，实则往往需要40分钟。开车去一个没去过的城市，你预计6个小时的路程，往往8个小时才到达。开店装修，你预计30天装修完成，最后往往会用更久。你确信这次可以提前完成报告，但实则又是赶到最后一刻才完成。实验小组做过多次试验，在研究中，研究人员先让学生们预估自己完成各种学术任务和个人任务需要多长时间，然后按照学生们不同的自信程度和他们的预估时间进行分类整理。最后的结果是哪怕在信心最足的一组分组中，有99%的信心按时完成任务的群体，只有45%的人真正在那个时候完成了任务。影响结果的有几个原因，做一件事前人们往往会高估自己的能力，另一方面当人们很想做一件事的时候，过度期待好结果的到来，潜意识中就会把所有可能的变量都预估为最好的结果。在投资中的体现是，当我们投资一家企业时，往往会过度乐观的估计事态的发展。比如看到了上面的海外逻辑，你会忽略即使有极大的空间，但也是一个缓慢增长的过程。当看到有人说一家企业三年后会怎么样的时候，会热血沸腾，但真的度过三年会很漫长。说的热血沸腾更吸睛，但是有一个完整的计划，才能真的获胜。聊完家电，我们再聊下当下。阿里巴巴集团CEO吴泳铭宣布将在3800亿AI基建计划基础上追加更大的投入，阿里大涨。此外，阿里巴巴宣布与英伟达开展Physical AI合作，覆盖数据合成处理，模型训练等方面。AI发展，细分领域可能有很多赢家，但大方面上腾讯、阿里这些老牌互联网企业更具有优势。而且当时腾讯阿里都比较便宜，只看现有业务就低估，什么云计算、AI，都是免费送。当然在我眼中腾讯确定性更强，所以腾讯配置了个股，间接通过ETF配置一些阿里。投资要追求极致，但不是追求极致的收益，而是极致的安全。很多人都想在股市通过冒险和好运成功。但做大事的英雄不是冒险家，而是工匠。《怎么做成大事》一书中对于做事的第一个建议是，要把愿景变成计划，然后把计划变成行动。为什么我除了个股投资也聊聊定投，因为定投是一个很容易形成一套计划的体系，你要做的就是坚定的去执行。慢慢的你的自控力，对市场的感知力，低估时克服悲观的能力，高估时克服贪婪的能力，都会慢慢变强。如果没有一套完整的计划，只是有一个愿景，盲目乱做是不可能成功的。虽然这一次的调整周期更长一些，但未来会不会有一波行情，我认为是大概率的事，资金宽松，大部分优质企业低估，政策面支持。而未来只要有行情，你能熬到情绪点燃那一刻，结果都不会差。举个上轮牛市的数据，2015年A股股票数量2600家左右，2015年上半年涨幅超过100%的有1000家，涨幅超过50%的有1964家，这还不算，很多企业2014年后几个月就已经有所上涨了。所以现在的核心就是，尽量在不影响生活的情况下，多攒优质的股权。这听着很简单，但其实一点也不简单，比如有以下几点1、能踏踏实实的不容易，很多人非要执着于在不好赚钱的时候赚大钱，在小盘股上今年来来回回已经好几次20%、30%的杀跌，可能行情还没来自己已经损耗完了。2、大部分人底部都不在场，如果把市场分个百分位，80%的资金不参与才会造就底部。因此大多资金都是看到市场有了行情再进入，可能已经错过了50%，甚至更高的个股涨幅，赚钱最简单的一段已经过去了。并且很多人都是刚开始小心谨慎，只是想着少买点，越涨信心越足仓位越重，前期上涨的时候只有很少的资金，到了行情末期反而是重仓，稍微大跌几天就开始大幅亏损。所以每轮牛市最终还能赚钱的人并不多，更多人反而是因为牛市亏损惨重。而现在在股市的你，肯定是胜率最大的，你要做的就是尽量多收集优质的股权。上面这段建议，一年多后的今天看，我认为价值足够。其实下轮熊市再看也必然有用。这个市场一轮又一轮，逻辑没那么复杂，但多数人不赚钱，就是执着于低估跑，高估买，因为他们没有完整的计划。所以最终你要有一套完整的计划和方法，什么时候你觉得涨跌都有计划，因此中间的等待不恐慌、不着急，那么就进入了正确的状态。做大事的英雄不是冒险家，投资也一样，你不可能靠一时的运气好去解决问题。而要有工匠精神，长期认真的做对的事。要把愿景变成计划，然后把计划变成行动。今天就聊这么多，我是终身我，聊投资，但不功利，让我们一起认真学习，慢慢变富。
Greg and Doug Stokes wrap up the 3rd quarter with the markets again at all-time highs. As expectations for corporate profit growth, Energy/AI investments, S&P 500 Earnings, and GDP continue to go higher, this episode of the Lagniappe Podcast answers the questions: are we heading for a recession, and is it a good time to be invested in stocks? Key Takeaways [00:17] - October baseball [03:16] - The effect (or non-effect) of the government shutdown [04:25] - Q3 Report: all systems go [13:10] - Can real estate join the positive party? View Transcript Links Zaccardi: GS - The simple story is that non-recessionary rate cuts are usually positive for equities Bilello: US Rents were down 0.8% over the last year, the 28th consecutive month with a YoY decline Connect with our hosts Doug Stokes Greg Stokes Stokes Family Office Subscribe and stay in touch Apple Podcasts Spotify lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com Disclosure The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies referenced in our blogs/podcasts) or any other investment and/or non-investment-related content or services will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable or appropriate for a reader/listener's individual situation, or prove successful. Moreover, no portion of the blog/podcast content should be construed as a substitute for individual advice or services from the financial professional(s) of a reader/listener's choosing, including Stokes Family, LLC, a registered investment adviser with the SEC, with which the blogger/podcasters are affiliated.
In this compelling episode, hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso interview Shannon Brandao – attorney, Mandarin speaker, and founder of the China Boss Substack – to explore China's expanding influence even as America appears to turn inward. Broadcasting from Europe, Brandao delivers her unique insights on Chinese Communist Party strategy, economic challenges, and geopolitical ambitions.Brandao emphasizes that perception easily becomes reality, in that when America appears to withdraw, China seizes opportunities to expand influence through economic leverage and promises of stability. This directly impacts Indo-Pacific supply chains controlling critical minerals, batteries, and essential products that Americans depend on daily.Rejecting claims that China seeks only regional stability, Brandao explains that the Chinese Communist Party operates from a paranoia that requires control to ensure regime survival. Under Xi Jinping, ruling "red aristocrats" fear vulnerability to external powers, and even successful Chinese entrepreneurs like Jack Ma, leading to enterprise nationalization and tight party control over innovation.While China faces economic headwinds, including debt, demographic challenges, and declining GDP, Xi Jinping has successfully modernized the military. Still, China's unreliable economic statistics mask systemic problems, with Communist Party interference undermining potential innovation, even despite a tremendous national talent base.China exercises strength in strategic sectors—solar panels, batteries, electric vehicles, shipbuilding, and artificial intelligence—through massive subsidies, but this creates a chronic overcapacity problem. Local government subsidies benefit politically connected firms like Huawei, creating quasi-monopolies across industries: steel, aluminum, cement, telecom gear, plastics, fertilizers, construction equipment, etc. Endemic corruption further dilutes programs, with billions disappearing from AI innovation funds.Companies attempting to leave China face complex challenges. When signaling departure, employees report to Party and government officials, triggering shakedowns through exit bans and extortionate demands. Recent surveys show companies staying but withholding investment and hedging elsewhere. For firms that do leave, repatriating profits and protecting intellectual property depends entirely on relationships with local government officials.Asked for what advice she would give to President Trump before meeting Xi Jinping at the upcoming APEC Summit, Brandao warns that Xi will use flattery while masking the geopolitical reality, and that failing to press American interests in the Indo-Pacific creates vacuums China eagerly fills.
In this episode, Samantha Azzarello, head of Content Strategy, is joined by Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy, chief U.S. economist Mike Feroli and Eben Peck from the Federal Government Relations team to discuss the latest developments surrounding the U.S. government shutdown. They explore the status of negotiations and the economic implications of the impasse, including the effects on Fed policy, GDP and jobs. They also dive into the market response and the impact on the broader financial landscape. This podcast was originally recorded as a webinar for J.P. Morgan Markets on October 2, 2025. This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan. Copyright 2025, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.
03 Oct 2025. Abu Dhabi’s GDP grew 3.8% in Q2 compared with a year earlier, with the non-oil economy up 6.6% to its highest quarterly value ever, now making up nearly 57% of the emirate’s economy. We break down the numbers with Emirates NBD economist Ed Bell, alongside the IMF’s 4.8% UAE growth forecast following its Article IV review. Plus, Yango has signed a deal with Etihad Rail, we ask their regional SVP of Operations what’s behind the partnership. And Dubai Duty Free continues a string of record-breaking months, we hear from the boss on what’s driving sales.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Trump's GDP has hit 3.8%, the economy is on fire even without the Fed lowering the rates the way Trump wants. The [DS] is now trying to stop Trump's economy. They have now created another event which they are trying to use to stop Trump's economy, this will fail just like everything else. The [DS] is holding steady on the shutdown. The cover story is that they want money for illegal medical insurance, this is falling apart. They know they don't have the people so they are using this to distract from the push to WWIII and they are hoping that ICE, NG will cease their operations. Trump is using this to drain the swamp, expose the D's. This is a no win situation for the [DS]. Trump knows the playbook and most likely he is using backchannels to speak to Putin. No war, no civil unrest, clean and swift. Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/profstonge/status/1973712063529631995 Treasury Sec. Bessent: Dem Shutdown to Cut Trump's GDP Growth The Democrats' government shutdown could reduce gross domestic product (GDP) growth that has emerged under President Donald Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday. "We were left with a mess [by the Biden administration]. It was the largest deficit when we weren't in a recession, weren't at war, and [now] we are fixing the deficit," Bessent said. "There could be a discussion, but this isn't the way to have a discussion — shutting down the government and lowering the GDP." "We could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth, and a hit to working America." Source: newsmax.com Political/Rights https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/1973706295841816644 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1973469908358086957 https://twitter.com/C_3C_3/status/1973547026534277539 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1973488279153680690 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1973479707619590625 https://twitter.com/DHSgov/status/1973535704337486011 this Salvadoran man is not going to be able to remain in our country. He will never be allowed to prey on innocent Americans again. Never forget the Democrats flew to a foreign land on the US taxpayer's dime to break bread with this terrorist gang member and visit him in prison. While they continue to fight for criminal illegal aliens, we will continue to put the safety of the American people FIRST. https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/1973715576750305650 DOGE Federal Court Rules Bans on Carrying Firearms in Post Offices Are Unconstitutional, Democrats Hardest Hit In a win for the Second Amendment and law-abiding gun owners across America, a federal court has ruled that bans on carrying firearms in U.S. Post Offices are unconstitutional. , Chief United States District Judge Reed O'Connor handed down an opinion on Firearms Policy Coalition Inc, et.al. v. Bondi. FPC was joined by the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) in challenging the federal law. The ruling also applies to carrying firearms on property surrounding post offices. Here's more, via Bearing Arms: O'Connor wrote that the law “is unconstitutional under the Second Amendment with respect to Plaintiffs' (and their members) possession and carrying of firearms i...
Colonel Jeff McCausland observes that Europe is preparing to deal with Russia's hybrid warfare (drones, cyber, incursions) independently, driven by the belief that the Trump administration is prioritizing homeland defense. European leaders are discussing a "drone wall" and achieving 5% GDP defense spending. McCausland also analyzes the 20-point Gaza peace plan, which involves an immediate hostage release, phased Israeli withdrawal, and a multinational peacekeeping force, noting Russia would likely gain from regional stabilization. 1941 ATLANTIC CHARTER
CBS EYE ON THE WORLD WITH JOHN BATCHELOR THE SHOW BEGINS IN THE DOUBTS ABOUT THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S PLANS FOR THE DOD 10-1-25 FIRST HOUR 9-915 Colonel Jeff McCausland observes that Europe is preparing to deal with Russia's hybrid warfare (drones, cyber, incursions) independently, driven by the belief that the Trump administration is prioritizing homeland defense. European leaders are discussing a "drone wall" and achieving 5% GDP defense spending. McCausland also analyzes the 20-point Gaza peace plan, which involves an immediate hostage release, phased Israeli withdrawal, and a multinational peacekeeping force, noting Russia would likely gain from regional stabilization. 915-930 Colonel Jeff McCausland observes that Europe is preparing to deal with Russia's hybrid warfare (drones, cyber, incursions) independently, driven by the belief that the Trump administration is prioritizing homeland defense. European leaders are discussing a "drone wall" and achieving 5% GDP defense spending. McCausland also analyzes the 20-point Gaza peace plan, which involves an immediate hostage release, phased Israeli withdrawal, and a multinational peacekeeping force, noting Russia would likely gain from regional stabilization. 930-945 Andrew McCarthy and Thaddeus McCotter discuss James Comey potentially being a target of the Trumpadministration, focusing on charges of lying to Congress under the broader false statements statute (1001), rather than traditional perjury. Proof of "willfulness" is required, which signifies a heightened mental state and understanding of illegality. They also analyze the Supreme Court's delay in ruling on President Trump's effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, deferring oral arguments until January.Preview: Andrew McCarthy and Thaddeus McCotter discuss James Comey potentially being a target of the Trumpadministration, focusing on charges of lying to Congress under the broader false statements statute (1001), rather than traditional perjury. Proof of "willfulness" is required, which signifies a heightened mental state and understanding of illegality. They also analyze the Supreme Court's delay in ruling on President Trump's effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, deferring oral arguments until January. 945-1000 Andrew McCarthy and Thaddeus McCotter discuss James Comey potentially being a target of the Trumpadministration, focusing on charges of lying to Congress under the broader false statements statute (1001), rather than traditional perjury. Proof of "willfulness" is required, which signifies a heightened mental state and understanding of illegality. They also analyze the Supreme Court's delay in ruling on President Trump's effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, deferring oral arguments until January.Preview: Andrew McCarthy and Thaddeus McCotter discuss James Comey potentially being a target of the Trumpadministration, focusing on charges of lying to Congress under the broader false statements statute (1001), rather than traditional perjury. Proof of "willfulness" is required, which signifies a heightened mental state and understanding of illegality. They also analyze the Supreme Court's delay in ruling on President Trump's effort to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, deferring oral arguments until January. SECOND HOUR 10-1015 Colonel Grant Newsham assesses South Korea's leftist President Yoon Suk Yeol, describing him as pro-China and anti-US, despite his vow to increase defense spending. Newsham views this spending partly as a tactical ploy to avoid reliance on US troops. Separately, he highlights Chinese influence and rampant corruption in the US territory of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), which is brazenly seeking $100 million from the USdespite $1.6 billion having vanished. 1015-1030 Colonel Grant Newsham assesses South Korea's leftist President Yoon Suk Yeol, describing him as pro-China and anti-US, despite his vow to increase defense spending. Newsham views this spending partly as a tactical ploy to avoid reliance on US troops. Separately, he highlights Chinese influence and rampant corruption in the US territory of the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), which is brazenly seeking $100 million from the USdespite $1.6 billion having vanished. 1030-1045 Brandon Weichert analyzes the growing threat of space warfare, referencing Russia's satellites shadowing German intelligence satellites and the Sino-Russian "no limits partnership." He explains that co-orbital satellites can render ground forces "deaf, dumb and blind." Weichert suggests developing small, cheap "bodyguard satellites" alongside France to protect sensitive US military constellations, acknowledging that space technology is inherently dual-use. 1045-1100 David Maxwell discusses South Korea's military spending increase, the largest in over 15 years, which supports the goal of developing independent warfighting capabilities and transitioning operational control (OPCON). He clarifies that the complexity of OPCON transfer is often misunderstood as a sovereignty issue. Maxwell notes that North Korea is thriving due to growing support from China and Russia, making Kim Jong-un less motivated to normalize relations with the United States. THIRD HOUR 1100-1115 Preview: Professor John Yoo examines US missile attacks on alleged Venezuelan drug boats, differentiating military force (war) from law enforcement (crime). He suggests that if the Maduro regime is using drug cartels like Tren de Aragua as instruments of attack against the US, it constitutes a state of war, justifying military action. Yoo argues that the president can use force defensively without seeking a declaration of war if the US is attacked first, even unconventionally. 1115-1130 Professor John Yoo examines US missile attacks on alleged Venezuelan drug boats, differentiating military force (war) from law enforcement (crime). He suggests that if the Maduro regime is using drug cartels like Tren de Aragua as instruments of attack against the US, it constitutes a state of war, justifying military action. Yoo argues that the president can use force defensively without seeking a declaration of war if the US is attacked first, even unconventionally. 1130-1145 Preview: Bob Zimmerman details SpaceX's target of October 13th for the next Starship Super Heavy orbital test flight, which will focus on testing various engine firing configurations during the Super Heavy booster's return. He reports significant setbacks for competitors, including an explosion during a Firefly Alpha static fire test and NASA canceling the cargo contract for Sierra Space's Dream Chaser due to over a year of unexplained silence and delays. 1145-1200 Bob Zimmerman details SpaceX's target of October 13th for the next Starship Super Heavy orbital test flight, which will focus on testing various engine firing configurations during the Super Heavy booster's return. He reports significant setbacks for competitors, including an explosion during a Firefly Alpha static fire test and NASA canceling the cargo contract for Sierra Space's Dream Chaser due to over a year of unexplained silence and delays. FOURTH HOUR 12-1215 Patrycja Bazylczyk defines the Golden Dome as a reorientation of US missile defense policy to counter next-generation threats from near-peer adversaries, Russia and China. The defense, which involves a space component (HBTSS), supports the nuclear triad by strengthening deterrence through both denial and punishment. She notes that critics argue the program is unaffordable (estimated $175 billion) and destabilizing, but stresses the need for sustained, bipartisan funding to build the necessary architecture. 1215-1230 Patrycja Bazylczyk defines the Golden Dome as a reorientation of US missile defense policy to counter next-generation threats from near-peer adversaries, Russia and China. The defense, which involves a space component (HBTSS), supports the nuclear triad by strengthening deterrence through both denial and punishment. She notes that critics argue the program is unaffordable (estimated $175 billion) and destabilizing, but stresses the need for sustained, bipartisan funding to build the necessary architecture. Preview: Patricia Scialabba defines the Golden Dome as a reorientation of US missile defense policy to counter next-generation threats from near-peer adversaries, Russia and China. The defense, which involves a space component (HBTSS), supports the nuclear triad by strengthening deterrence through both denial and punishment. She notes that critics argue the program is unaffordable (estimated $175 billion) and destabilizing, but stresses the need for sustained, bipartisan funding to build the necessary architecture. 1230-1245 Preview: General Blaine Holt discusses the Pentagon's push to double missile production for potential conflict, noting that US weapon stocks were depleted following aid to Ukraine. He emphasizes the critical need for procurement reform and securing domestic supply chains for materials like steel and aluminum. Holt also addresses the military's shift back to a "warrior ethos" away from "woke" culture, suggesting this change is already leading to honorable resignations and retirements among senior officers. 1245-100 AM Preview: Rick Fisher describes Victor Gao as a "Han envoy" used in China's "cognitive warfare" to spread propaganda, including the claim that China has the world's most powerful military. Gao falsely claimed China possesses a "super weapon," the DF-61, armed with 61 nuclear warheads, capable of reaching any global point in 20 minutes. Fisher also analyzes the propaganda surrounding the new Fujian aircraft carrier, noting that claims of its superiority over the USS Ford are easily refutable.
Colonel Jeff McCausland observes that Europe is preparing to deal with Russia's hybrid warfare (drones, cyber, incursions) independently, driven by the belief that the Trump administration is prioritizing homeland defense. European leaders are discussing a "drone wall" and achieving 5% GDP defense spending. McCausland also analyzes the 20-point Gaza peace plan, which involves an immediate hostage release, phased Israeli withdrawal, and a multinational peacekeeping force, noting Russia would likely gain from regional stabilization. 1863 CULPEPPER VIRGINIA
The next vote to end the government shutdown is tomorrow, and it's not going well for Democrats. Mark interviews economist Steve Moore. Steve breaks down how the government shutdown is affecting the economy. GDP growth over the last few quarters has increased in the USA. Maxwell House Coffee has changed its name to "Maxwell Apartment". Mark interviews the host of Fox Across America on WOR Weeknights, Jimmy Failla. Jimmy gives his take from a comedian's perspective on the government shutdown, Zohran Mamdani, and the United Nations General Assembly from last week. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Steve breaks down how the government shutdown is affecting the economy. GDP growth over the last few quarters has increased in the USA.
The next vote to end the government shutdown is tomorrow, and it's not going well for Democrats. Mark takes your calls! Mark interviews economist Steve Moore. Steve breaks down how the government shutdown is affecting the economy. GDP growth over the last few quarters has increased in the USA.
The next vote to end the government shutdown is tomorrow, and it's not going well for Democrats. Mark interviews economist Steve Moore. Steve breaks down how the government shutdown is affecting the economy. GDP growth over the last few quarters has increased in the USA. Maxwell House Coffee has changed its name to "Maxwell Apartment". Mark interviews the host of Fox Across America on WOR Weeknights, Jimmy Failla. Jimmy gives his take from a comedian's perspective on the government shutdown, Zohran Mamdani, and the United Nations General Assembly from last week.
Steve breaks down how the government shutdown is affecting the economy. GDP growth over the last few quarters has increased in the USA. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The next vote to end the government shutdown is tomorrow, and it's not going well for Democrats. Mark takes your calls! Mark interviews economist Steve Moore. Steve breaks down how the government shutdown is affecting the economy. GDP growth over the last few quarters has increased in the USA. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
On day two of the government shutdown, Carl Quintanilla, Courtney Reagan and Michael Santoli explored the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new record highs. The tech sector surged to new all-time highs sparked by the AI trade -- in reaction to OpenAI's valuation jumping to $500 billion. Tesla shares in volatile trading after the EV maker posted record deliveries for the third quarter, while rival Rivian lowered its annual deliveries forecast. Also in focus: Government shutdown developments including the delay of jobless claims data — and what Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC about the potential impact of the shutdown on GDP, Berkshire Hathaway agrees to acquire Occidental Petroleum's chemicals unit for $9.7 billion in cash.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
#SWAMPWATCH – US to lose $15B in GDP each week of a shutdown. A mysterious surrogacy mansion. A drug-plagued property. And a criminal known as ‘Dragon'. Anti-Spam Apps That Work! Chatbot/Ozark Mystery.
Wharton's Jeremy Siegel joins to weigh in on markets, jobs data, the Fed, and how the government shutdown could dent GDP. Former Tesla exec Jon McNeill break down EV delivery numbers. Microsoft's new commercial CEO Judson Althoff talks changes at the tech giant. Plus, USA Rare Earth CEO Barbara Humpton explains what government stakes in rare earth companies could mean for critical supply chains. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Diane Coyle is the Bennett Professor of Public Policy at the University of Cambridge. She is the Research Director at the Bennett School of Public Policy. Diane's latest book is 'The Measure of Progress: Counting What Really Matters'. Her own research focuses on productivity, the digital economy and AI policy, and economic measurement. She has been writing about the effects of digital technologies since her first book, ‘The Weightless World', in 1997. Diane is currently a member of the UK Government's Industrial Strategy Council, the New Towns Taskforce, and advises the Competition and Markets Authority. She has served previously in a number of public service roles including as Vice Chair of the BBC Trust, member of the Competition Commission, and of the Natural Capital Committee. Diane was awarded a DBE in 2023 for her contribution to economics and public policy. In this podcast we discuss the inadequacy of GDP measurement, missing the digital economy; dealing with free digital services, how to measure productivity in services, and much more. Follow us here for more amazing insights: https://macrohive.com/home-prime/ https://twitter.com/Macro_Hive https://www.linkedin.com/company/macro-hive
Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, presents his business cycle framework showing leading indicators crossed in November 2024 (Titanic hit iceberg), but imminent recession indicators haven't triggered yet (ship not sinking). He sees a final blow-off top with S&P potentially hitting 7,500 and NASDAQ 28,000 before a potential 50% crash that would still leave valuations at third-highest ever with market cap to GDP at unprecedented 220%. Zeberg warns gold is in a "mini bubble" front-running deflationary collapse and will decline when dollar bottoms, despite $35,000 long-term target. His most provocative thesis: after deflationary bust, Fed money printing will cause stagflation because "Mrs. Johnson" will hoard rate cut savings rather than spend, while Fed remains "way too late" using lagging indicators like "driving by looking in rear window."Sponsors: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR2010:00 Welcome and introduction - Henrik Zeberg 1:13 Zeberg Business Cycle framework - four phases explained3:28 Leading indicators crossed November 2024 - Titanic hit iceberg5:43 Imminent recession indicators - credit spreads, yield spreads, initial claims8:39 Markets don't lead - unemployment bottoms before stock market tops13:52 Market cap to GDP at 220% - unprecedented bubble territory16:08 Elliott Wave targets - S&P 7,500, NASDAQ 28,000 possible18:40 Singapore index - canary in coal mine for global economy19:17 Everything bubble explained - rate suppression distorted all valuations22:44 Most dangerous when people don't recognize bubble24:37 Fed micromanaging creates inefficient capital allocation27:05 S&P could fall 50% to 3,350 and still be third highest valuation ever29:59 Gold mini bubble - front-running deflationary collapse32:54 Dollar bottom coming - gold decline ahead despite long-term bullishness34:03 Own physical gold but don't buy more right now37:05 Stagflation thesis - deflationary bust then high inflation42:49 Mrs. Johnson won't spend rate cut savings - she'll hoard it44:57 Fed way too late - rearranging deck chairs on Titanic48:43 Housing affordability 51:01 Central bank hubris 53:55 Fed using lagging indicators - driving by looking in rear window57:42 Peak euphoria warning - when it feels best, be most careful
Liz Peek confirms that Wall Street expects further interest rate cuts despite strong GDP growth and a stable job market. She stresses that Artificial Intelligence is seriously impacting corporate hiring plans, noting major employers like Walmart are preparing to flatten employment over "several years." Peek also points to the alarming lead of socialist, anti-Israel mayoral candidate Mamdani in New York City, whose inexperience creates a large question mark over the city's future. 1955 NYSE
Liz Peek confirms that Wall Street expects further interest rate cuts despite strong GDP growth and a stable job market. She stresses that Artificial Intelligence is seriously impacting corporate hiring plans, noting major employers like Walmart are preparing to flatten employment over "several years." Peek also points to the alarming lead of socialist, anti-Israel mayoral candidate Mamdani in New York City, whose inexperience creates a large question mark over the city's future. 1963 NYSE
On this episode of the Scouting For Growth podcast, Sabine VdL talks to Amit Santhirasenan, co-founder and CEO of hyperexponential, an actuary and software engineer who has built the AI native pricing and underwriting platform used by leading specialty carriers. In this episode we cover how to turn messy submissions into structured signals your pricing model can trust – without hiring an army, multi agent architectures, the agentic AI mesh, and the human in the loop controls executives need for auditability and speed, and where agentic underwriting is ready today (and where it isn't), plus the metrics executives should track—cycle time, hit ratio, and loss ratio uplift. KEY TAKEAWAYS Email submissions were a luxury at the start of my career! What's been so exciting for me, as a self-professed nerd, is the pace at which the capabilities of core models have got so good that even 6 months ago was a whole product's capability and feature set is now within the gift of Gemini or GPT5. If you're an underwriter filling out a spreadsheet/renew model, in 2025 you need to be working with hx underwriting , actuary or agent inside a renew model to have your paired partner helping you get to the best result. Why can't you have deep risk research on every single risk? Why can't you say: Tell me the most important characteristics in the world that you can tell me about the top 3 exposures? No human can do this work, the cost/benefit trade off there isn't economic, but you can run an OpenAI deep risk API call to do that on every single risk you underwrite today. We do it for you, it's what we do. All of a sudden it's dramatically easier to bring that level of differentiation and specialism in the way that great underwriting has always been done to every single risk you want to touch. BEST MOMENTS ‘You won't see that many places with a $7 trillion contribution to GDP, with such a small number of companies and people responsible for this.' ‘We demonstrated the first API machine vision algorithm in the market in 2017, now kids coming out of university are doing that as toy projects before they get to our clients.' ‘You can have an army of digital agents helping you now, all for $20 per month!' ‘Generative AI models have unlocked the ability to pull data so quickly out of the information required for underwrite that you can put a very quick red/amber/green status on risks, several orders of magnitude greater than ever before.' ABOUT THE GUESTS Amit Santhirasenan is the Co-founder and CEO of Hyperexponential (hx), the AI native pricing and underwriting platform for P&C insurers. Under his leadership, hx Renew has become known for delivering executive level outcomes: ~50% faster submission to bind, 10× faster model build and deployment, and a platform that supports $45bn+ in GWP for 20+ enterprise customers worldwide. A qualified actuary and computer scientist, Amrit previously spent over a decade in the London Market. He served as Head of Pricing & Analytics at Tokio Marine Kiln, building the managing agent's first technical pricing team to support ~£1.5bn GWP, and earlier held actuarial roles at Catlin (including standing up the Canadian actuarial function). ABOUT THE HOST Sabine is a corporate strategist turned entrepreneur. She is the CEO and Managing Partner of Alchemy Crew a venture lab that accelerates the curation, validation, & commercialization of new tech business models. Sabine is renowned within the insurance sector for building some of the most renowned tech startup accelerators around the world working with over 30 corporate insurers, accelerated over 100 startup ventures. Sabine is the co-editor of the bestseller The INSURTECH Book, a top 50 Women in Tech, a FinTech and InsurTech Influencer, an investor & multi-award winner. Twitter LinkedIn Instagram Facebook TikTok Email Website This Podcast has been brought to you by Disruptive Media. https://disruptivemedia.co.uk/
In the second of a two-part episode, Morgan Stanley's chief economists talk about their near-term U.S. outlook based on tariffs, labor supply and the Fed's response. They also discuss India's path to strong economic growth.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Mike Gapen, Chetan Ahya and Jens Eisenschmidt, who cover the U.S., Asia, and Europe respectively. We talked about... Well, we didn't get to the U.S. We talked about Asia. We talked about Europe. Today, we are going to focus on the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world. It's Wednesday, October 1st at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10 pm in Hong Kong. All right, gentlemen. So yesterday we talked a lot about China, the anti-involution policy, and what's going on with deflation there. Talked a little bit about Japan and what the Bank of Japan is doing. We shifted over to Europe and what the ECB is doing there – there were lots of questions about deflation, disinflation, whether or not inflation might actually pick up in Japan. So, [that] was all about soft inflation. Mike, let me put you on the spot here, because things are, well, things are a little bit different in the U.S. when it comes to inflation. A lot of attention on tariffs and whether or not tariffs are going to drive up inflation. Of course, inflation, the United States never got back to the Fed's target after the COVID surge of inflation. So, where do you see inflation going? Is the effect of tariffs – has that fully run its course, or is there still more entrained? How do you see the outlook for inflation in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, certainly a key question for the outlook here. So, core PCE inflation is running around 2.9 percent. We think it can get towards 3, maybe a little above 3 by year end. We do not think that the economy has fully absorbed tariffs yet; we think more pass through is coming. The President just announced additional tariffs the other day. We had them factored into our baseline. I think it's fair to say companies are still figuring out exactly how much they can pass through to consumers and when. So, I think the year-on-year rate of inflation will continue to move higher into year end. Hit 3 percent, maybe a little bit above. The key question then is what happens in 2026. Is inflation driven by tariffs transitory – the famous T word; and the year-on-year rate of inflation will come back down? That's what the Fed's forecast thinks; we do as well. But as everyone knows, the Fed has started to ease policy to support the labor market. The economy has performed pretty well, so there's a risk maybe that inflation doesn't come down as much next year. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so tariffs are clearly a key policy variable that can affect inflation. There's also been immigration restriction, to say the least, and what we saw coming out of COVID – when people were reluctant to go back to work, and businesses were reporting lots of shortages of workers – is that in certain services industries, we saw some pressure on prices. So, tariffs mostly affect consumer goods prices. Is there a contribution from immigration restriction onto overall inflation through services? Michael Gapen: I think the answer is yes; and I hesitate there because it's hard to see it in real time. But it is fair to say the average immigrant in the U.S. is younger. They have higher rates of labor force participation. They tend to reside in lower income households. So, they're labor supply heavy in terms of their effect on the economy. And yes, they tend to have larger relative presence in construction and manufacturing. But in terms of numbers, a lot of immigrants work in the service sector, as you note. And services inflation has been to the upside lately, right? So, the surprise has been that goods inflation maybe hasn't been as strong. The pass through from tariffs has been weaker. But in terms of upside surprises in inflation, it's common services and in many cases, non-housing related services. So, I'd say there's maybe some nascent signs that immigration controls may be keeping services prices firmer than thought. But may be hard to tie that directly at the moment. So, it's easier to say I think immigration controls may prevent inflation from coming down as much next year. It's not altogether clear how much they're pushing services inflation up. I think there's some evidence to support that, and we'll have to see whether that continues. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so we're seeing higher costs and higher prices from tariffs. We're seeing less labor supply when it comes to immigration. Those seem like a recipe for a big slowdown in growth, and I think that's been your forecast for quite some time – is that the U.S. was going to slow down a lot. Are we seeing that in the data? Is the U.S. economy slowing down or is everything just fine? How are you thinking about it? And what's the evidence that there's a slowdown and what are maybe the counterarguments that there's not that much of a slowdown? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the data doesn't support much of a slowdown. So yes, the economy did moderate in the first half of the year. I think the smart thing to do is average through Q1 and Q2 outcomes [be]cause there was a lot of volatility in trade and inventories. If you do that, the economy grew at about a 1.8 percent annualized rate in the first half of the year, down from about 2.5 percent last year. So, some moderation there, but not a lot. We would argue that that probably isn't a tariff story. We would've expected tariffs and immigration policies to have greater downward pressure on growth in the second half of the year. But to your question, incoming data in the third quarter has been really strong, and we're tracking growth somewhere around 3 percent right now.So, there's not a lot of evidence in hand at present that tariffs are putting significant downward pressure on growth. Seth Carpenter: So those growth numbers that you cite are on spending, which is normally the way we calculate things like GDP, consumption spending. But the labor market, I mean, non-farm payroll reports really have been quite weak. How do you reconcile that intellectual tension on the one hand spending holding up? On the other hand, that job creation [is] pretty, pretty weak. Michael Gapen: Yeah. I think the way that we would reconcile it is when we look at the data for the non-financial corporate sector, what appears to be clear is that non-labor costs have risen and tariffs would reside in that. And the data does show that what would be called unit non-labor costs. So, the cost per unit of output attributable to everything other than labor that rose a lot. What corporates apparently did was they reduced labor costs. And they absorbed some of it in lower profitability. What they didn't do was push price a lot. We'll see how long this tension can go on. It may be that corporates are in the early stages of passing through inflation, so we will see more inflation further out in a slowdown in spending. Or it may be that corporates are deciding that they will bear most of the burden of the tariffs, and cost control and efficiencies will be the order of the day. And maybe the Fed is right to be worried about downside risk to employment. So, I reconcile it that way. I think corporates have absorbed most of the tariff shock to date, and we're still in the early stages of seeing whether or not they will be able to pass it along to consumers. Seth Carpenter: All right, so then let's think about the Fed, the central bank. Yesterday, I talked to Chetan about the Bank of Japan. There reflation is real. Talked to Jens yesterday about the ECB where inflation has come down. So, those other developed market economies, the prescriptions for monetary policy are pretty straightforward. The Fed, on the other hand, they're in a bit of a bind in that regard. What do you think the Fed is trying to achieve here? How would you describe their strategy? Michael Gapen: I would describe their strategy as a recalibration, which is, I think, you know, technical monetary policy jargon for – where their policy stance is now; is not correct to balance risks to the economy. Earlier this year, the Fed thought that the primary risk was to persistent inflation. Boy, the effective tariff rate was rising quickly and that should pass due to inflation. We should be worried about upside risk to inflation. And then employment decelerated rapidly and has stayed low now for four consecutive months. Yes, labor supply has come down, but there's also a lot of evidence that labor demand has come down. So, I think what the Fed is saying is the balance of risks have become more balanced. They need to worry about inflation, but now they also need to worry about the labor market. So having a restrictive policy stance in their mind doesn't make sense. The Fed's not arguing – we need to get below neutral. We need to get easy. They're just saying we probably need to move in the direction of neutral. That will allow us to respond better if inflation stays firm or the labor market weakens. So, a recalibration meaning, you know, we think two more rate cuts into year end get a little bit closer to neutral, and that puts them in a better spot to respond to the evolving economic conditions. Seth Carpenter: All right. That makes a lot of sense. We can't end a conversation this year about the Fed, though, without touching on the fact that the White House has been putting a lot of pressure on the Federal Reserve trying to get Chair Powell and his committee to push interest rates substantially lower than where they are now. Michael Gapen: You've noticed? Seth Carpenter: I've noticed. From my understanding, a lot of people in markets have noticed as well. There's been some turnover among policy makers. We have a new member of the Board of Governors of the Fed. This discussion about Federal Reserve independence. How do you think about it? Is Chair Powell changing policy based on political pressure? Michael Gapen: I don't think so. I think there's enough evidence in the labor market data to support the Fed's shift in stance. We have certainly highlighted immigration controls, what they would mean for the labor force. And how that means even a slowing, growing economy could keep the unemployment rate low. But it's also fair to say labor demand has come down. If labor demand were still very strong, you might see job openings higher, you might see vacancies higher. You may even see faster wage growth. So, I think the Fed's right to look at the labor market and say, ‘Okay, on the surface, it looks like a no hire, no fire labor market. We can live with that, but there are some layoffs underneath. There are signs of weakness. Slack is getting created slowly.' So, I think the Fed has solid ground to stand on in terms of shifting their view. But you're right, that looking forward into 2026 with the end of Powell's term as chair and likely turnover in other areas of the board. Whether the Fed maintains a conventional reaction function or one that's perhaps more politically driven remains an open question – and I think is a risk for investors. Seth Carpenter: I want to change things up a lot here. Chetan, yesterday you and I talked about China. We talked about Japan. Two really big economies that I think are well known to investors.Another economy in Asia that you cover is India. For a long time, we have said India was going to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. Do you still see it to be the case? That India's got a really bright growth outlook? And in the current circumstance with tariffs going on, how do you think India is fairing vis-a-vis U.S. tariffs? Chetan Ahya: So yes, Seth, we are still optimistic about India's growth outlook. Having said that, you know, there are two issues that the economy has been going through. Number one is that the domestic demand had slowed down because of previous tightening of fiscal and monetary policies. And at the same time, we have now seen this trade tensions, which will slow global trade. But also, directly India will be affected by the fact that the U.S. has imposed 50 percent tariff on close to 60 percent of India's exports to the U.S. So, both these issues are affecting the outlook in the near term. We still don't have clarity on what happens on trade tensions, but what we have seen is that the government has really worked quite hard to get the economy going from domestic demand perspective. And so, they have taken up three sets of policy actions. They have reduced household income tax. The central bank has cut interest rates because inflation has been in control. And at the same time, they have now just recently announced reduction in Goods and Services Tax, which is akin to like consumption tax. And so, these three policy actions together we think will drive domestic demand growth from the fourth quarter of this year itself. It will still be not back up to strong growth levels. And for that we still need that solution to trade policy uncertainty. But I think there will be a significant recovery coming up in the next few months. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks for that, Chetan. It's such an interesting story going on there in India. Well, Michael, Chetan, thank the three of you for joining me today in this conversation. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.
Your financial advisor hates this bull market! Find out what it is as we talk the recent market conditions as well as the potential upcoming government shutdown, noting that while shutdowns once spooked markets, investors have become largely desensitized as they rarely have major lasting effects outside of government employees and contractors. Shutdowns have historically been used as political tools, sometimes causing GDP drag and reputational costs, but now often register as background noise. We also chat about seasonal and cyclical inflection points—like quarter-ends, tax-loss selling, and earnings season—that can drive short-term volatility. It's important to keep your perspective, recognizing political drama as a “circus,” and instead focusing on underlying market cycles. Today we discuss... Government shutdowns used to trigger fear in markets but now typically cause little more than short-term noise. Politicians increasingly use shutdowns as leverage tools in budget negotiations rather than genuine fiscal concerns. Past shutdowns have shown temporary GDP drag but very little lasting structural harm to markets. Markets tend to quickly recover after shutdown drama fades, reinforcing investor desensitization. The real drivers of volatility now are cyclical factors like quarter-end portfolio adjustments and tax-loss harvesting. Earnings season consistently creates inflection points for markets, often outweighing political headlines. Seasonal forces can exaggerate short-term market swings, particularly in September and October. Positioning between defensive stocks and growth stocks is more critical for risk management than reacting to shutdown fears. Broader global market trends often matter more than U.S. political events. U.S. small-cap stocks have underperformed compared to large caps and international equities, reflecting structural weaknesses. Investors should focus on long-term positioning rather than reacting to short-lived shutdown volatility. Shutdowns reveal the widening gap between political theater and actual economic fundamentals. Short-term market noise from shutdowns can actually create opportunities for disciplined investors. Shutdowns are best understood as temporary disruptions, not trend-defining events. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | Mergent College Advisors Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/your-financial-advisor-hates-751
Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger Picture France and the other EU countries are in downward economic spiral. Trump is having the globalist system rip itself apart. The US has all the leverage and Trump evening out the trade playing field is destroying the globalist system. Leverage is what is all about. The [DS] is now preparing to attack the US from within and from outside of the country. The [DS] is ramping up their antifa, criminal and illegal troops. Trump knows the playbook. Trump has sent a clear message today to the enemy and to the soldiers of this country. To the enemies we stand ready united and strong, to the soldiers, remember your oath, you will be fighting the enemy from within. The military is the only way. Prepare and get ready. Economy France On The Brink: Debt Spiral And Political Paralysis France remains paralyzed even after its latest government reshuffle. Time is running out to consolidate public finances before bond markets turn against Paris. The office of Prime Minister has become a revolving door. In just three years, President Emmanuel Macron has burned through five governments without visible results. The country is trapped in political shock, a deadlock in parliament that appears unbreakable. France buys social peace with ever-larger sums of borrowed money. The strategy leaves deep holes in the public accounts and barely hides the fractures of a fragmented society, where class conflict grows more aggressive and Islamist subcultures flourish. With new borrowing at 5.6% of GDP this year and total debt at 114%, France faces the classic Ponzi dilemma: once old debt can no longer be rolled into new issuance, the entire system collapses. Markets Focus on Assets, Not Just Debt Ratios Markets Are Already Signaling Trouble Whether Lecornu can deliver politically is doubtful. Bond markets are already voting. French 10-year yields, negative as recently as 2020, now hover around 3.57%, the highest in a decade. Spreads against German Bunds have blown out to 75–80 basis points from under 30 just a few years ago. Investors see mounting risk in French paper, a reflection of fiscal chaos and political paralysis. Source: zerohedge.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1972750964307472871 https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1972681814297755702 Political/Rights https://twitter.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1972809676032258108 Super Bowl Boycott Backlash Grows After NFL Taps Anti-Trump Pop Star Bad Bunny for Halftime Show The NFL is facing growing boycott calls after announcing its decision to tap anti-Trump pop megastar Bad Bunny as the headliner for next year's Super Bowl halftime show. Social media erupted this week when the Puerto Rican rapper, whose real name is Benito Antonio Martínez Ocasio, was announced as the main attraction for Super Bowl LX coming up next February. Photos began circulating showing the singer dressed in a pink mini skirt and high heels and another in a voluminous white dress as football fans blasted the NFL for once again not understanding their own audience. Now a boycott is warming on social media as fans express outrage over the NFL's tone deaf entertainment pick.
Preview: Liz Peek discusses the Fed's rate cut amidst strong economic data and consumer spending, noting second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%. She highlights AI's increasing impact on hiring, citing Walmart's plan to hold employment flat and investment banking trends. The conversation ends with the concerning New York City mayoral race and candidate Mamani's socialist policies and inexperience. 1882 NYSE
Morgan Stanley's chief economists discuss how policymakers in China, Japan and the European Union are addressing slower growth, deflation or the return of inflationary pressures. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Well, a lot has changed since the second quarter and the last time we did one of these around the world economics roundtable. After an extended pause, the United States Federal Reserve started cutting rates again. Europe's recovery is showing, well, some mixed signals. And in Asia, there's once again increasing reliance on policy support to keep growth on track.Today for the first part of a two-part conversation, I'm going to engage with Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia economist, and Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe economist, to really get into a conversation about what's going on in the economy around the world.It's Tuesday, September 30th at 10am in New York.Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt.Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in HongSeth Carpenter: So, it's getting to be the end of the third quarter, and the narrative around the world is still quite murky from my perspective. The Fed has delivered on a rate cut. The ECB has decided that maybe disinflation is over. And in Asia, China's policymakers are trying to lean in and push policy to right the wrongs of deflation in that economy.I want to get into some of the real hard questions that investors around the world are asking in terms of what's going on in the economy, how it's working out, and what we should look for. So, Chetan, if I can actually start with you. One of the terms that we've heard a lot coming out of China is the anti-involution policy.Can you just lay out briefly for us, what do we mean when we say the anti-involution policy in China?Chetan Ahya: Well, the anti-evolution policy is a response to China's excess capacity and persistent deflation challenge. And in China's context, involution refers to the dynamic where producers compete excessively, resulting in aggressive price cuts and diminishing returns on capital employed. And look, at the heart of this deflation challenge is China's approach of maintaining high real GDP growth with more investment in manufacturing and infrastructure when aggregate demand slows. And in the past few years, policy makers push for investment in manufacturing and infrastructure to offset the sharp slow down in property sector.And as a result, a number of industry sectors now have large excess capacities, explaining this persistent deflationary environment. And after close to two and a half years of deflation, policy makers are recognizing that deflation is not good for the corporate sector, households and the government. And from the past experience, we know that when policymakers in China signal a clear intention, it will be followed up by an intensification of policy efforts to cut capacity in select sectors. However, we think moving economy out of deflation will be challenging. These supply reduction efforts may be helpful but will not be sufficient on their own. And this time for a sustainable solution to deflation problem, we think a pivot is needed – supporting consumption via systematic efforts to increase social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers in urban China and rural poor. But we are not optimistic that this solution will be implemented in scale.Seth Carpenter: So that makes sense because in the past when we've been talking about the issue of deflation in China, it's essentially this mismatch between the amount of demand in the economy not being sufficient to match the supply. As you said, you and your team have been thinking that the best solution here would be to increase demand, and instead what the policymakers are doing is reducing supply.So, if you don't think this change in policy, this anti-evolution policy is sufficient to break this deflation cycle – what do you see as the most likely outcome for economic growth in China this year and next?Chetan Ahya: So, this year we expect GDP growth to be around 4.7 percent, which implies that in the back half of the year you'll see growth slowing down to around 4.5 percent because we already grew at 5.2 in the first half. And, going forward we think that, you know, you should be looking more at normal GDP growth set because as we just discussed deflation is a key challenge.So, while we have real GDP growth at 4.7 for 2025, normal GDP growth is going to be 4 percent. And next year, again, we think normal GDP growth will be in that range of 4 percent.Seth Carpenter: That whole spiral of deflation – it's sort of interesting, Japan as an economy has broken that sort of stagnation or disinflation spiral that it was in for 25 years. We've been writing for a long time about the reflation story going on in Japan. Let me ask you, our forecast has been that the reflationary dynamic is there. It's embedded, it's not going away anytime. But, on the other hand, we basically see the Bank of Japan as on hold, not just for the rest of this year, but for all of next year as well.Can you let us know a little bit about what's going on with Japan and why we don't think the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates anytime soon?Chetan Ahya: So, Seth, at the outset, we think BoJ needs still some more time to be sure that we are on that virtuous cycle of rising prices and wages. Yes, both prices and wages have gone up. But it is very clear from the data that a large part of this rise in prices can be attributed to currency depreciation and supply side factors, such as higher energy prices earlier, and food prices now. And similarly, currency depreciation has also played a role in lifting corporate profits, which then has allowed the corporate sector to increase wages.So, if you look at the drivers to rise in prices and wage growth as of now, we think that demand has not really played a big role. To just establish that point, if you look at Japan's GDP, it's just about 1 percent higher than pre-COVID on a real basis. And if you look at Japan's consumption, real consumption trend, it's still 1 percent below pre-COVID levels.So, we think BoJ still needs more time. And just to add one more point on this. BoJ is also conscious about what tariffs will do to Japan's exports, and economy; and therefore, they want to wait for some more time to see the evidence that demand also picks up before they take up a policy rate hike.Seth Carpenter: So, one economy in deflation and policy is probably not enough to prevent it. Another economy that's got reflation, but a very cautious central bank who wants to make sure it continues. Jens, let's pivot now to Europe because at the last policy meeting, President Lagarde of the ECB said pretty, pretty strongly that she thinks the disinflationary process in Europe has come to an end. And that the ECB is basically on hold at this point going forward.Do you agree with her assessment? Do you think she's got it right? You think she's got it wrong? How could she be wrong, if she's wrong? And what's your outlook for the ECB?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, there a ton of questions here. I think I was also struck by the statement as you were. I think there is probably – that's at least my interpretation – a reference here to – Okay, we have come down a long way in terms of inflation in the Euro area. Rather being at 10 percent at some point in the past and now basically at target. And we think; I mean, we just got the data actually, for September in. It's more or less in line with what we had expected up again to 2.3. But that's really it. And then from here it's really down.Very good reasons to believe this will be the case. We have actually inflation below target next year, and the ECB agrees. So that's why I think she can't have made reference to what Liza had because the ECB itself is predicting that inflation from here will fall. So, I think it's really probably rather description of the way traveled. And then there may be some nuances here in the policy prescription forward.So, for now we think inflation will undershoot the target. And we think this undershoot has good chances to extend well into the medium term. So that's the famous 2027 forecast. The ECB in its last installment of the forecast in September doesn't disagree. Or it's actually, in theory at least, in agreement because it has a 1.9 here for 2027. So, it's also below target.But when asked about that at the press conference, the President said, yes, it's actually, very close to 2. So, it really cannot be really distinguished here. So, from that perspective, policy makers probably want to wait it out. In particular for the October meeting, which is not a forecast meeting, we don't expect any change.And then the focus of attention is really on the December meeting with the new forecast. What will 2028 show in their forecast for inflation? And will the 1.9 in [20]27 actually be rather 1.8? In which case I think the discussion on further cuts will heat up. We have a cut for December, and we have another one for March.Seth Carpenter: Of course, very often one of the things that drives inflation is overall economic growth and a key determinant of economic growth tends to be fiscal policy. And there we've got two big economies very much in the headlines right now. Germany, on the one hand, with plans to increase spending both on infrastructure and on defense spending. And then France, who's seen lots of instability, shall we say, with the government as they try to come up with a plan for fiscal consolidation.So, with those two economies in mind, can you walk us through what is the fiscal outlook for Germany, in particular? Is it going to be enough to stimulate overall growth in Europe? And then for France, are they going to be able to get the fiscal consolidation that they're looking for? How do you see those two economies evolving in terms of fiscal policy?Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's of course neither black or white, as you know. I think here we really look into the German case specifically, as the clear case where fiscal stimulus will happen. It may just not happen as quickly, and it's a very trade open economy. So, it's very much exposed to the current headwinds coming out of China for one. Or also U.S. tariffs. So, from that we conclude our net-net is actually, yes, there is textbook fiscal stimulus. So, basically domestic demand replacing less foreign demand.So that's fine, but just not enough. We see essentially better growth in Germany, but that's more cyclically driven. But it was; it just would not be enough for what you would normally think given the size of the fiscal stimulus, which is enormous. But it will also take some time, this fiscal stimulus to unfold.On the other side in France, as you rightly ask, how much consolidation are we going to get? I think the answer has to be very likely less than what the last – or the previous Prime Minister has had planned. So, all in all, that gets us into a situation of a country that lacks a clear economic policy structure, a clear governance structure; tries to – on a very fragile parliamentary majority – tries to consolidate the budget. Probably gets less consolidation going forward than what would be desirable. And, you know, here is sort of – not really...It's been muddling through a little bit. This is probably a good description of the approach here in France, and we actually have on the lack of a clear economic policy agenda and still some fiscal consolidation. We have actually lackluster growth in France for this year and next.Seth Carpenter: Okay, so what I'm hearing you saying is inflation seems likely to come down and probably undershoot their target causing President Lagarde and the ECB to reconsider how many cuts they're going to do. And then growth probably isn't going to be as stimulated by fiscal policy as I think lots of people in markets are hoping for.Chetan, Jens, thanks for joining us.And to the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to turn in tomorrow where I'm going to put Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist on the hot seat, talk about the U.S. and maybe one or two more economies around the world.And if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.
This week we talk about Article 4, big sticks, and spheres of influence.We also discuss Moldova, super powers, and new fronts.Recommended Book: More Everything Forever by Adam BeckerTranscriptThe North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, was originally formed in 1949 in the wake of World War 2 and at the beginning of the Cold War.At that moment, the world was beginning to orient toward what we might think of as the modern global order, which at the time was predicated on having two superpowers—the US and the Soviet Union—and the world being carved up into their respective spheres of influence.NATO was formed as the military component of that protection effort, as the Soviets (and other powers who had occupied that land in the past) had a history of turning their neighbors into client states, because their territory provides little in the way of natural borders. Their inclination, then, was to either invade or overthrow neighboring governments so they could function as buffers between the Soviet Union and its potential enemies.The theory behind NATO is collective security: if anyone attacks one of the member nations, the others will come to their aid. Article 5 of the NATO treaty says that an attack against one member is considered an attack against all members, and while this theoretically would be applied against any would-be attacker, it was 100% created so that the Soviets and their Warsaw Pact allies knew that if they attacked, for instance, Norway, the other NATO nations—including, importantly, the United States, which again, was one of just two superpowers in the world at that point, all the other powers, like the UK and France having been devastated by WWII—would join in their defense.NATO, today, is quite a bit bigger than it was originally: it started out with just 12 countries in Europe and North America, and as of 2025, there are 32, alongside a handful of nations that are hoping to join, and are at various points along the way to possibly someday becoming member states.What I'd like to talk about today are recent provocations by the Soviet Union's successor state, Russia, against NATO, and what these provocations might portend for the future of the region.—In early 2014, Russia invaded—in a somewhat deniable way, initially funding local rabble-rousers and using unmarked soldiers and weapons—the eastern portion of Ukraine, and then annexed an important Black Sea region called Crimea. Then in early 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, massing hundreds of thousands of military assets on their shared border before plunging toward Ukraine's capitol and other vital strategic areas.Against the odds, as Ukraine is small and poor compared to Russia, and has a far smaller military, as well, Ukrainians managed to hold off the Russian assault, and today, about 3.5 years later, Ukraine continues to hold Russia off, though Russian forces have been making incremental gains in the eastern portion of the country over the past year, and Russian President Putin seems convinced he can hold the Donbas region, in particular, even if peace is eventually declared.At the moment, though, peace seems unlikely, as Russian forces continue to grind against increasingly sophisticated and automated Ukrainian defenses, the invading force, in turn, bolstered by North Korean ammunition and troops. Ukraine's exhausted soldiery is periodically and irregularly bulwarked by resources from regional and far-flung allies, helping them stay in the game, and they're fleshing out their locally grown defense industry, which has specialized in asymmetric weaponry like drones and rockets, but Russia still has the advantage by pretty much any metric we might use to gauge such things.Over the past three weeks, concerns that this conflict might spill over into the rest of Europe have been heightened by Russian provocations along the eastern edge of the NATO alliance.Russia flew drones into Poland and Romania, fighter jets into Estonia, and aggressively flew fighters over a Germany Navy frigate in the Baltic Sea. Article 4 of the NATO treaty was invoked, which is the lead-up invocation to an eventual invocation of Article 5, which would be a full-fledged defense, by the bloc, against someone who attacked a NATO member.And that's on top of Russia's persistent and ongoing efforts to influence politics in Moldova, which held an election over the weekend that could serve as a foot in the door for Russian influence campaigns and Russia-stoked coups within the EU, or could become one more hardened border against such aggressions, depending on how the election pans out. The final results aren't in as of the day I'm recording this episode, but there are fears that if the pro-Russian parties win, they'll turn the country—which is located on Ukraine's borders, opposite Russia—into another Russian puppet state, similar to Belarus, but if the pro-Russian parties don't do well, they'll try to launch a coup, because Russian disinformation in the country has been so thorough, and has indicated, in essence, if they lose, the process was rigged.All of which is occurring at a moment in which NATO's most powerful and spendy member, by far, the US, is near-universally pulling out of international activities, the second Trump administration proving even more antagonistic toward allies than the first one, and even more overt in its disdain for alliances like NATO, as well. It's probably worth noting here, too, that part of why things are so hectic in Moldova is that the US government has stopped pressuring social networks to tamp down on overt misinformation and propaganda from Russia-aligned groups, and that's led to significant fog of war for this most recent election.Considering the US's recent unreliability, and in some cases complete absence regarding NATO and similar alliances and pacts, it's perhaps prudent that NATO member states have recently agreed to up their individual spending on defense, all of these states meeting or exceeding their pre-2025-summit goal of 2% of GDP, that target increasing to 5% by 2035.This is notable in part because it's something Trump demanded, and that demand seems to have worked and probably been a good idea, but this is also notable because of what it represents: a cessation of leadership by the US in this alliance.The US has long been the big stick wielded by its European allies, and this administration basically said, hey, you need to make your own big sticks, you may not have access to our weapons and support anymore. And while it will still take a while to both get their funding up to snuff and to spend those funds appropriately, outfitting their defenses and shoring up their numbers, this would seem to be a step in that direction—though there's simmering concern that it might be too little, too late.That concern is mostly held by Russia-watchers who have noted a big pivot by Russia's leadership, and in the Russian economy.Over the past 3.5 years since it invaded Ukraine, that invasion taking a lot longer than they thought it would, Russia has shifted into a total war stance, its entire economy becoming reliant on its continued invasion of Ukraine.Should that invasion end or ebb, or should it continue to fail to give the Russian government enough successes, so it can brag about how well it's doing to its citizenry and oligarchs, it would probably need another target—another front in the war that it can open to justify the continued churning-out of weapons and soldiers, and the continued spending of a huge chunk of its GDP toward the military. Lacking that churn, it's economy would be in even worse straits than it's in, today, and lacking that cause, it's possible support for the government could collapse.It's also been posited that it could be a disaster Putin's regime if too many Russian veterans, wounded and traumatized from their time on the front lines in Ukraine, were to arrive back in Russia all at once. That's the sort of situation that could lead to an uprising against the government, or bare minimum a lot of turmoil that they don't want to deal with. Having another front, another battle to send them to, would solve that problem; it would be an excuse to keep them fighting external enemies, rather than looking for internal ones.Russia's Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, recently said that NATO and the EU have declared a “real war” against Russia by participating in the conflict; by providing arms and financial support for Ukraine.This is, of course, a silly thing to say, though it is the kind of statement an aggressor makes when they want to make themselves sound like the victim, and want to justify moving on to victimize someone else. You attacked us for no reason! We are thus completely within our rights to defend ourselves by attacking you; we are in the right here, you're the bad guys.This could be just saber-rattling, and it usually is. Lavrov says things like this all the time, and it's almost always state-sanctioned bluster. The drone and jet flyovers, likewise, could be meant to send a signal to the EU and NATO: back off, this is not your fight, but if you continue supporting Ukraine, we'll make it your fight, and we think we can beat you.It's also possible, though, that these actions are meant to test NATO defenses at a moment in which the US is largely absent from the region, China and Russia have never been tighter, including in supporting each other's regional goals and militaries, and in which Russia seemingly has many reasons, mostly internal, to expand the scope of the conflict.Show Noteshttps://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/pistorius-russian-jet-flew-over-142629311.html?guccounter=1https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/19/world/europe/russian-fighter-jets-estonia-nato.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/07/business/russia-disinformation-trump.htmlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/world/europe/poland-drones-russia-nato.htmlhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prelude_to_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukrainehttps://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5ygjv0r2myohttps://thehill.com/policy/international/5522862-lavrov-nato-eu-russia/https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/27/europe/putin-hybrid-war-europe-risks-intlhttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/27/world/europe/russia-europe-poland-drones-moldova-election.htmlhttps://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-poland-drones-sanctions-rafale-429ff46431a916feff629f26a5d0c0dahttps://www.reuters.com/world/europe/denmark-has-no-plans-invoke-natos-article-4-foreign-minister-says-2025-09-26/https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2025/09/27/More-drones-spotted-Denmark/4031758983759/https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-poland-drones-defense-kyiv-ec284922b946737b98a28f179ac0c5a0https://apnews.com/article/poland-airspace-drones-russia-airport-closed-cf7236040d8c7858104a29122aa1bd57https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-poland-drones-fa2d5d8981454499fa611a1468a5de8bhttps://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-poland-drones-1232774279039f9e5c5b78bd58686cb9https://apnews.com/article/british-intelligence-mi6-russia-war-443df0c37ff2254fcc33d5425e3beaa6https://apnews.com/article/nato-article-4-explainer-russia-poland-estonia-26415920dfb8458725bda517337adb12https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/nato-article-4-russia/https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/28/world/europe/moldova-election-russia-eu.htmlhttps://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49187.htmhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATOhttps://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52044.htm This is a public episode. 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Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is imposing tariffs on the rest of countries to bring manufactures back to this the US. The US economy is growing the Fed is going to try to stop the growth by pushing back on the rate cut. The Fed inflation detector shows no sign of runaway inflation. Trump is now pushing the narrative to fire Powell, leverage is the name of the game. The [DS] is panicking, Trump and team are now indicting those who are treasonous to this country. The started out with the lying, he is testing the waters, testing the judges building the narrative for the people of this country. The [DS] players are pushing back by using Antifa. These will intensify over time and Trump will counter the insurgency/insurrection with the military. The military is the only way, buckle up. Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); Trump Imposes 25% Tariff On Imported Heavy Trucks Starting Oct. 1 Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation said the sweeping tariffs leave major questions unanswered, including whether they comply with existing trade agreements, but predicted they would “almost certainly drive up prices for American buyers.” Source: zerohedge.com Mexico is the largest supplier of medium- and heavy-duty trucks to the U.S., followed by Canada, Japan, Germany, and Turkey. Heavy-truck shipments from U.S. plants climbed from a low of $1.1 billion in April 2020 to $3.2 billion this July, though they have dipped modestly this year, Federal Reserve data shows. Fed cautious on rate cuts as GDP surges; warns of potential inflation risks Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has stressed that the central bank will weigh the GDP numbers carefully as it considers future rate cuts. “If we ease too aggressively, we could leave the inflation job unfinished and need to reverse course later,” Powell said. Source: 13wham.com Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Shows No Sign Of Runaway Tariff Costs, As Savings Rate Slides After a modest increase two months ago, and a steady print in July, analysts expected headline PCE to be steady at +2.6% YoY in August and Core PCE - the Fed's favorite indicator - to also be unchanged at 2.9% YoY... and the numbers all came in right in line with expectations. Indeed, "as expected" is the them of this morning's data with headline and Core PCE both matching expectations and staying in the same range they have been in for two years... not exactly the Trump Tariff terror future that every "respected" economist predicted. All those expecting a bounce in Durable Goods inflation will have to wait another month: in August it actually declined again, as did Nondurable Goods, while Services costs increased the most. On the income side, there was more good news: after outpacing the private sector for nearly three years, wage growth of private workers (5.0% YoY) is once again rising faster than government workers. In fact, government worker wage growth of 4.2% was the lowest since August 2021. Source: zerohedge.com Political/Rights BREAKING: Sinclair Caves, Will Bring Jimmy Kimmel's Show Back
Meet my friends, Clay Travis and Buck Sexton! If you love Verdict, the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show might also be in your audio wheelhouse. Politics, news analysis, and some pop culture and comedy thrown in too. Here’s a sample episode recapping four takeaways. Give the guys a listen and then follow and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Radical Leftwing Violence President Donald Trump meets with the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and addresses the press on multiple issues. The hosts analyze Trump’s remarks, including his blunt assessment of rising left-wing violence and his warning that radical rhetoric from Democrats is fueling domestic terrorism. The discussion shifts to the U.S. economy, highlighting a surprising 3.8% GDP growth in Q2, record-high stock prices, and falling interest rates. Clay and Buck break down how lower mortgage rates could unlock the housing market and why economic growth—not spending cuts—may be the only path to balancing the federal budget. They also touch on Elon Musk’s prediction that AI-driven innovation could help offset ballooning deficits. Phony Comey The conversation zeroes in on James Comey, the former FBI Director, as reports suggest possible criminal charges for lying under oath before the statute of limitations expires. Clay and Buck revisit Comey’s controversial role in targeting General Michael Flynn and his history of aggressive prosecutions, including the Martha Stewart case. They stress the importance of accountability to prevent the U.S. from descending into “banana republic” politics. Autism and Tylenol Dr. Mehmet Oz, now serving as CMS Administrator under President Trump and HHS Secretary RFK Jr., joins the show to discuss groundbreaking developments in autism research, including promising results from leucovorin therapy for children and emerging concerns about acetaminophen (Tylenol) use during pregnancy. He emphasizes transparency in government health data and warns against overusing medications during pregnancy. The conversation explores the alarming rise in autism rates—now estimated at 1 in 31 children—and potential environmental and lifestyle factors, including allergies, chemical exposure, and older parental age. Dr. Oz underscores the need for urgent research and public awareness, noting that autism prevalence has increased fivefold in 25 years. Nerding Out with Ryan In-depth political analysis with guest Ryan Girdusky, host of It’s a Numbers Game. The discussion kicks off with the New Jersey governor’s race, where New Jersey Republican Jack Ciattarelli is gaining momentum against Democrat Mikie Sherrill. Despite Democrats’ historic voter advantage, recent polls show a tightening race, fueled by Sherrill’s controversies—including a viral debate stumble and a resurfaced Naval Academy cheating scandal from 1994. Girdusky explains how skyrocketing electricity costs, driven by data center energy demands, have become a top voter concern in both New Jersey and Virginia, shaping campaign strategies. The conversation shifts to Virginia’s gubernatorial showdown between Republican Winsome Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Sears is focusing on cultural issues like transgender participation in women’s sports and locker rooms, while Spanberger avoids clear answers, offering vague responses that Clay and Buck criticize as political double-speak. The hosts argue that Democrats in purple states often run as moderates but govern as progressives, warning voters about the stakes in these off-year elections. Next, attention turns to the New York City mayoral race, where progressive candidate Zohran Mamdani is the overwhelming favorite according to betting markets, despite a crowded field including Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams, and Curtis Sliwa. Girdusky predicts Mamdani’s win could have national implications for Democrats in the 2026 midterms, as his far-left policies on policing and immigration could become a liability for the party’s brand. Make sure you never miss a second of the show by subscribing to the Clay Travis & Buck Sexton show podcast wherever you get your podcasts! ihr.fm/3InlkL8 For the latest updates from Clay and Buck: https://www.clayandbuck.com/ Connect with Clay Travis and Buck Sexton on Social Media: X - https://x.com/clayandbuck FB - https://www.facebook.com/ClayandBuck/ IG - https://www.instagram.com/clayandbuck/ YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuck Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ClayandBuck TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@clayandbuck YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@VerdictwithTedCruzSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Former FBI Director James Comey indicted on charges of lying to Congress and obstruction in the Trump-Russia probe. President Trump signs an executive order clearing the way for a U.S.-based version of TikTok with American investors. Revised government data shows second-quarter GDP surging to 3.8%, far stronger than earlier reports suggested. Federal officials reveal the Dallas ICE gunman planned his attack for months with the explicit goal of terrorizing agents. A new poll shows the New Jersey governor's race in a dead heat, raising GOP hopes of flipping the state red.BAU: Go to https://BAUmovie.com to watch the Artist of war trailer and learn moreGeviti: Go to https://gogeviti.com/megyn and get 20% off with code MEGYN. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
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