Podcasts about fomc

A Bloomberg opinion column on July 20, 2026 argued for tighter Federal Reserve policy, putting the FOMC and Chair Jerome Powell in focus. Tighter conditions would operate through higher policy rates and quantitative tightening, affecting bank funding costs and credit availability. Small and midsize businesses could see stricter lending standards, more expensive working capital, and slower approvals. Venture-backed companies would face compressed valuation multiples, longer fundraising timelines, and more bridge financing. Customers may slow purchases in rate-sensitive sectors, lengthening sales cycles and raising procurement hurdles. Founders can prepare by fixing more debt, building liquidity buffers, diversifying banking, and prioritizing efficient growth while monitoring upcoming Fed communications and data.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On the macro front, investors got a "sigh of relief" as inflation pressures appeared to ease with this week's economic data, says Charles Schwab's Collin Martin. However, he notes that one data point doesn't signify a trend. Collin outlines fiscal concerns he sees as prevalent for the months ahead. Michael Townsend walks investors through Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's commentary on inflation and AI's role in the macro picture. He sees the independent task forces as notable for the FOMC, making the case the forces "give him a buffer" on adjusting interest rates. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Jeff Weniger has a strong outlook for what he calls a "raging bull market." He says earnings growth can reach 20% into 2027, adding that he sees no red flags in the jobs market. As for Kevin Warsh and the Fed, Jeff doesn't anticipate interest rates to move much higher than current levels, and even says there's a chance the FOMC is more dovish than Warsh is willing to admit. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Energy's cooldown in price action showed up in the June CPI, says Kevin Hincks. He walks investors through what's churning underneath the headline numbers and how it plays into the FOMC's inflation picture as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh prepares to speak Tuesday morning. However, crude oil is climbing again as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. Kevin believes President Trump's rhetoric behind the volatility doesn't explain what's really happening behind the scenes. IBM Corp.'s (IBM) earnings also pose a big question mark for software. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week's discussion focused on a labor market that is cooling but still stable, renewed geopolitical risk tied to oil prices, and a Federal Reserve that appears more focused on inflation under new leadership. The panel also reviewed the market's reaction to the June FOMC minutes, the importance of upcoming economic data, and how AI-related spending is influencing both inflation and equity leadership. Investors should watch earnings breadth, rate expectations, and rotation within technology as the second half of the year begins. Speakers:Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment StrategyGeorge Mateyo, Chief Investment OfficerRajeev Sharma, Head of Fixed IncomeStephen Hoedt, Head of Equities 02:01 — Labor market data shows slower payroll growth04:48 — Middle East risks put oil prices back in focus09:01 — FOMC minutes point to a more hawkish Fed14:33 — AI spending drives equity market rotation21:26 — Closing thoughts for investors Additional ResourcesRead: Key Questions - Is Artificial Intelligence (AI) a “Bubble”?Read: IRS Releases Its Dirty Dozen Tax Scams and Schemes for 2026 Key QuestionsWeekly Investment BriefSubscribe to our Key Wealth Insights newsletterFollow us on LinkedIn 

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris expects the Federal Reserve will deliver one rate hike before Labor Day despite Warsh's preference to delay—the White House has greenlit it to maintain Warsh's credibility as chairman, and this one hike will likely lead to more because incremental Fed policy changes don't stop at one when fighting inflation. The Iran ceasefire has shattered and won't be fixed: Iran has zero incentive to reach peace with the U.S., wants to tax Strait of Hormuz traffic, and will force Gulf states to build pipelines and avoid the strait entirely—oil refineries won't be rebuilt while shooting continues, causing permanent structural supply damage. U.S. oil stocks are at their lowest level in 20 years, diesel is up 30% this year and ripples through every part of the economy, and California is facing potential rationing after it runs down reserves and stops getting refined products from Asia. Whalen stands firm on his double-digit inflation call despite prediction markets showing lower odds, arguing the real economy—not market probabilities—determines consumer and producer behavior, and rising consumer inflation expectations (3.7% one-year) are changing psychology and forcing real estate hedging. Bank earnings next week will reveal whether credit costs continue rising as spreads widen between Treasuries and corporate bonds, signaling medium-term economic slowdown ahead as speculative companies lose financing access.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  The Wrap: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira866Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    The Entropy Trap: https://www.amazon.com/Entropy-Trap-Physics-Knows-Markets/dp/B0H1ZP7NZX/ref=sr_1_1Use the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 Warsh slow walking rate cut, White House greenlit one hike1:32 FOMC divided, one rate hike likely before Labor Day2:35 White House supporting Warsh to maintain credibility3:39 One hike doesn't typically happen alone4:42 Warsh reducing Fed presence, pulling back on forward guidance5:10 Fed's 2% target won't change consumer behavior on inflation7:29 Oil stocks at 20-year low, diesel shortage critical11:40 Iran ceasefire fragile, no incentive for lasting peace13:41 U.S. must build pipelines, avoid Strait of Hormuz14:08 Physical oil stocks depleted, refined products in short supply15:26 Diesel is political issue - impacts economy, employment16:06 California facing potential rationing without supplies16:36 Diesel up 30% this year, ripples through entire economy17:32 Double-digit inflation thesis still stands despite market skeptics18:46 Prediction markets vs real economy - spreads tell story20:06 Consumer inflation expectations hit 3.7% one-year (3-year high)20:27 Psychology of inflation changes spending and investment behavior21:34 Real estate traditional hedge, prices skyrocketing22:20 Spreads widening, economy slowing medium-term23:35 Earnings season next week - credit costs key indicator24:19 Midterms - Democrats take House, Trump faces impeachment25:32 Politics won't change, nothing gets done26:41 Pfizer building conversion collapsing, structural problems29:17 Bunker Hill Mining penny stock opportunity, silver revival31:28 Banks earnings - watch credit costs, mortgage issuers follow

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Iran deal dead. DOGE dead. Saylor selling at a loss. Medieval serfs kept more of their income than you do. I warned you about all of it.This episode is sponsored by DripDrop. Stock up now at http://dripdrop.com and use promo code GOLD for 20% offThis episode is also sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThe Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, with Trump acknowledging he was "two weeks from a depression" when he agreed to the MOU — a confession Peter Schiff says handed Iran all the leverage. Oil jumped 6% to $75, but the real story is bond yields: the 10-year hit 4.58% and the 30-year 5.07% — nearly at cycle highs despite oil being 25% below its peak, proving the debt, not the war, is driving yields higher.FOMC minutes revealed that 9 of 13 members now support rate hikes after zero did just 90 days ago — theatrics Schiff says Warsh is orchestrating to appear hawkish without ever delivering. The May goods trade deficit exploded to $106.5 billion despite Trump's tariffs, continuing the pattern from his first term. DOGE was officially shut down with zero spending cuts achieved. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin at a $15,000 per coin loss while Stretch sank to $86, and Trump's new savings accounts give kids $1,000 in borrowed money they'll repay through inflation. Schiff closes by noting that medieval serfs kept 75% of their output — more than the average American keeps today — making modern taxpayers lower in status than feudal peasants.Chapters:00:00 Freedom Versus Slavery00:46 Iran Deal Collapses05:04 Markets React to War07:15 Oil Bonds and AI Bubble16:17 Fed Minutes Rate Hike Theater21:28 Tariffs Inflation Excuses26:10 Real Rates and Debt Trap27:41 Trade Deficit Reality Check30:03 AI Threat to Services Surplus32:32 Democracy Deficits and Rights34:59 Rights And Healthcare36:28 Housing And Free Markets40:08 Tax Cuts And Wealth Theft45:55 Taxes And Modern Slavery48:25 DOGE Shutdown And Bitcoin CrashFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Andrew, Thomas, and Tom discuss the sharp Iran escalation with reports of a cruise missile impact on a nuclear power plant and missiles sent to Jordan following US strikes on 90 Iranian military targets, Russia's diesel export ban through July 31 sending US diesel up over 13% and London wholesale futures up 14% after Ukrainian drone strikes triggered Russia's worst fuel crisis since the Soviet collapse, the FOMC minutes noting broader tariff and AI-driven inflation, SK Hynix's US listing 7x oversubscribed at $24.5 billion, and China permitting local AI companies to buy Nvidia H200 chips for training.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Danielle DiMartino Booth praises the FOMC minutes as "clean" under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh—no manipulation of data like Janet Yellen did in 2013—and notes Warsh has successfully convened consensus around "less is more" Fed communications with an unusually quiet media environment. The real bombshell is the July jobs data: the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% only because 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in a single month, representing a 50-year low in labor force participation since 1976, while 49% of adults under 30 now live with their parents as affordability collapses and job insecurity rises. Danielle warns the official narrative of economic strength masks a deteriorating real economy: revolving credit declined (a sign lenders are tightening), consumer confidence shows jobs are hard to get, and vacation spending has crashed to Great Recession levels—yet mainstream media remains fixated on an inflation narrative unsupported by broad data. The biggest systemic risk is the "too big to fail" stock market: 51% of global assets now sit outside the regulated banking system, asset managers hold assets larger than major banks, and the government can't allow equity market collapse when 401(k)s are the only retirement plans left, implying inevitable Fed monetization and the "end of capitalism." Her source of hope: summer interns aged 18-28 who are hungry, hardworking, and reject the "too big to fail" mentality—representing a generation determined to work their way out rather than accept billionaire UBI schemes designed to maintain inequality.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and welcome back Danielle DiMartino Booth 00:40 FOMC minutes from June - Clean, Warsh didn't manipulate data1:30 Warsh convened consensus, less is more communications working2:57 Forward guidance removal, Fed less visible, refreshingly quiet3:20 Elizabeth Warren defends bloated 12 district banks, Waller calling it out4:38 Warsh has convened consensus around leadership position5:13 Warsh refuses forward guidance, hints at ending dot plot6:23 Inflation cooling seen but Iran hostilities change calculus6:59 No press conference if nothing to say - Hail Mary move7:25 Mervyn King taking communications, five task forces with outsiders8:49 Kalshi traders: 79% hold rates in July, 76% expect no cuts 20269:36 Labor force participation 50-year low since 197615:35 720,000 Americans gave up looking for work in one month16:05 Unemployment fell to 4.2% but for wrong reasons16:59 Full-time jobs destroyed, replaced by gig workers17:36 Labor market called stable but disconnect with data18:18 Jobs hard to get at highest level, Americans aware19:30 Revolving credit down, unusual sign of lender tightening20:20 49% of adults under 30 living with parents21:12 Five of 20 K-Shiller metro areas below 2000 price levels22:35 Young people disenfranchised, AI destroying college degree value24:32 Stock market too big to fail - implies Fed buying equities25:01 Inequality gap - bottom 10% stock holdings fell 3% to 1%26:14 Top 0.1% holdings doubled, bottom K getting bigger26:33 Worry about social fabric fraying with K-shaped economy29:16 Billionaires pushing UBI while controlling AI benefits30:14 Work ethic is what made America great30:30 Writing piece on too big to fail for weekly flagship32:08 51% of global assets outside regulated banking system33:34 Summer interns give hope - bright, hungry, great work ethic34:45 Young generation rejects too big to fail narrative 

Danielle DiMartino Booth calls the first FOMC minutes under Kevin Warsh "clean" as most Fed members expressed clear stances on energy's inflationary impact. She discusses where she sees those inflationary pressures hitting Americans the most, from the grocery store to travel costs. As Danielle explains, it likely will lead big banks to lend less money to consumers. She also talks about Warsh's "less is more" approach as Fed Chair. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

"The conflict doesn't carry the same amount of shock factor," says Alex Coffey when discussing the U.S.-Iran war, but he warns there's not a lot of room for upside surprise for markets. On the FOMC minutes, he explains how the Fed sees AI and how the buildout will be inflationary before turning deflationary. Alex ties this to the AI memory trade as a rebound in Micron (MU) and related stock shapes up as SK Hynix readies a heavily oversubscribed U.S. IPO. PepsiCo (PEP) shares fell flat following earnings. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Trump declaring the Iran MOU effectively over after calling Iranian leaders "evil sick people" and "cancer," the US retaliation "20 to 1" on Iranian cargo strikes, oil rising back to the mid-$70s and the 10-year climbing to 4.57% ahead of today's auction, Trump's additional broadsides at Spain, Greenland, and NATO, the semiconductor sell-off as investors focus on AI's capital intensity and rate sensitivity, and today's 2 PM release of Warsh's first FOMC minutes.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

It's Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts examines whether the momentum-driven rally in semiconductors can continue, how the Iran cease-fire breakdown could affect markets, and what investors should watch ahead of the FOMC decision. We also answer your questions on the differences between the NASDAQ VIX and S&P VIX, whether government policies continue to support elevated real estate prices, investing in Canadian companies through IRAs, the implications of a yield curve un-inversion, portfolio rebalancing strategies, dollar-cost averaging, maintaining the right cash allocation, the rise of inverse ETFs tied to the Magnificent Seven, recent SEC rule changes, and the lawsuit challenging NASDAQ's handling of the proposed SpaceX listing. We also discuss technology versus semiconductor sector leadership and why electricity demand and long-term power contracts are becoming increasingly important investment themes. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - FOMC Meeting Preview - Iran Cease Fire is Done 5:00 - Consolidation Range Continues; Momentum Trade in mostly Semi-conductors 6:58 - Risks from Iran Action 11:34 - Fight to the death & swats in school 14:11 - NASDAQ VIX vs S&P VIX 16:07 - How much of Real Estate prices are supported by Govt.? 17:04 - Canadian Companies in IRA's? 19:12 - Yield Curve inversion & un-inversions & Risk of Recession 26:13 - Mistakes with Cash in Investing (Cash = Opportunity) 29:17 - The Problem with Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) 33:03 - Criteria for Rebalancing Portfolio 38:17 - Mag-7 Inverse ETF 39:42 - SEC Rule Changes 44:54 - The Cash Cushion Has Never Been Thinner 46:13 - Technology vs Semi-conductors as sectors 47:11 - Lawsuit against NASDAQ for fast-tracking Space-X 47:43 - Electricity Contracts Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ua-paCoNRwo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Momentum Cracks, But Markets Hold" https://youtu.be/nO2N4bdLifo ------- Watch our previous show, "Could You Spot a Ponzi Scam?" https://youtube.com/live/36xwcnfxPa0 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors," https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-debt-risk-the-ratios-that-mislead-investors/ "Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wage-growth-as-a-leading-inflation-indicator/ "Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mag-7-stocks-risk-or-opportunity-in-the-making/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, "Narrative Busters: Market Stories Investors Should Approach With Caution," Saturday, July 18, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/RfJtCj2byfDr --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #Investing #Semiconductors #BeforeTheBell #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #FinancialPlanning

It's Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts examines whether the momentum-driven rally in semiconductors can continue, how the Iran cease-fire breakdown could affect markets, and what investors should watch ahead of the FOMC decision. We also answer your questions on the differences between the NASDAQ VIX and S&P VIX, whether government policies continue to support elevated real estate prices, investing in Canadian companies through IRAs, the implications of a yield curve un-inversion, portfolio rebalancing strategies, dollar-cost averaging, maintaining the right cash allocation, the rise of inverse ETFs tied to the Magnificent Seven, recent SEC rule changes, and the lawsuit challenging NASDAQ's handling of the proposed SpaceX listing. We also discuss technology versus semiconductor sector leadership and why electricity demand and long-term power contracts are becoming increasingly important investment themes. 0:00 INTRO 1:02 - FOMC Meeting Preview - Iran Cease Fire is Done 5:00 - Consolidation Range Continues; Momentum Trade in mostly Semi-conductors 6:58 - Risks from Iran Action 11:34 - Fight to the death & swats in school 14:11 - NASDAQ VIX vs S&P VIX 16:07 - How much of Real Estate prices are supported by Govt.? 17:04 - Canadian Companies in IRA's? 19:12 - Yield Curve inversion & un-inversions & Risk of Recession 26:13 - Mistakes with Cash in Investing (Cash = Opportunity) 29:17 - The Problem with Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) 33:03 - Criteria for Rebalancing Portfolio 38:17 - Mag-7 Inverse ETF 39:42 - SEC Rule Changes 44:54 - The Cash Cushion Has Never Been Thinner 46:13 - Technology vs Semi-conductors as sectors 47:11 - Lawsuit against NASDAQ for fast-tracking Space-X 47:43 - Electricity Contracts Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/ua-paCoNRwo ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Momentum Cracks, But Markets Hold" https://youtu.be/nO2N4bdLifo ------- Watch our previous show, "Could You Spot a Ponzi Scam?" https://youtube.com/live/36xwcnfxPa0 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Margin Debt Risk: The Ratios That Mislead Investors," https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/margin-debt-risk-the-ratios-that-mislead-investors/ "Wage Growth As A Leading Inflation Indicator" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/wage-growth-as-a-leading-inflation-indicator/ "Mag 7 Stocks: Risk Or Opportunity In The Making?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/mag-7-stocks-risk-or-opportunity-in-the-making/ --- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Candid Coffee, "Narrative Busters: Market Stories Investors Should Approach With Caution," Saturday, July 18, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/RfJtCj2byfDr --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketOutlook #Investing #Semiconductors #BeforeTheBell #FederalReserve #RetirementPlanning #FinancialPlanning

The base case for a bull run and crude oil prices coming down center on the Strait of Hormuz staying open, says Kevin Mahn. Both are at risk with tensions flaring up once again between the U.S. and Iran. Kevin also outlines headwinds on the interest rate front, pointing out a lack of cohesion on FOMC members and their forward expectations. On equities, he explains why he believes his firm's "AIR 7" that includes names like Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Micron (MU) have outperformed the Mag 7.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Wolfe Research Chief Economist Stephanie Roth speaks on what she calls the "One Big Beautiful Summer" plus shocks in Iran war will have on crude oil. She speaks with Bloomberg's Carol Massar and Bailey Lipshultz. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SHARESIES · MARKET MOVEMENTS · 8 JULY 2026 Jordan Cunningham, Sharesies Head of Data & Analytics Note: Filmed Tuesday 7 July. ↑ WHAT'S UP — Markets rallied. The Dow gained 2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.8%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.1%, and the ASX 200 finished up 0.9%, helped by its strongest trading session in three weeks. ↓ WHAT'S DOWN — Semiconductor stocks lagged despite the broader tech rebound, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 4.4%. Reports that Meta could sell excess AI computing capacity reignited questions about whether the industry has built too much infrastructure. ! BIGGEST SURPRISES — US nonfarm payrolls increased by just 57,000 in June, well below expectations. Markets responded by sharply reducing the odds of another Fed rate hike, while falling oil prices continued to ease inflation concerns. Despite that, US Treasury yields finished the week slightly higher. ◎ WHAT TO WATCH — The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivers its OCR decision this week, while the US releases FOMC meeting minutes and Q2 earnings season gets underway. ◈ BIGGER PICTURE — Investors are increasingly pricing in a world where inflation pressures continue to ease. Falling oil prices, a cooling US labour market and shifting central bank expectations have helped support equities, but the next test comes as companies begin reporting earnings and central banks reveal whether they're ready to change course. Disclaimer: Sharesies Market Movements is brought to you by Sharesies Australia Limited (ABN 94 648 811 830; AFSL 529893) in Australia and Sharesies Limited (NZ) in New Zealand. This video is general market commentary and educational in nature. It is not financial advice and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial situation or needs. Information is current at the time of recording and may be subject to change. We do not provide recommendations and nothing in this video should be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product. Investing involves risk. You might lose the money you start with. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you require personal financial advice, you should consider speaking with a qualified financial adviser. Our disclosure documents and terms and conditions, including a Target Market Determination and IDPS Guide for Sharesies Australian customers, are available on our relevant Australian or NZ website.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller explore why investors should resist the temptation to abandon their core investment style during periods of market momentum. They unpack how oil prices surprisingly avoided a spike given recent events in the Strait of Hormuz, with a note of caution for future changes as the world adjusts. The conversation turns to Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting and a likely shift toward reduced Fed transparency, closing with a look at the economic tradeoffs in today's world of no recessions and their long-term outlook for gold.

In this Daily Editorial, Craig Hemke, Founder and Publisher of the TF Metals Report, joins me to discuss the moderating of the peak hawkishness in the markets around inflation and Fed policy expectations over the last couple weeks.  Softening expectations have provided the conditions for the precious metals to begin to bottom and build a base, while lifting sector sentiment.  We dive into the technical outlook for gold, silver, and PM equity prices, counterbalanced against the macroeconomic backdrop.   Key Discussion points:   Craig comments on pricing in gold, silver, and PM ETFs holding steady over the last week and not going down any further; and making a slight move higher. There was legitimate chart damage done as pricing broke below the 200-day moving average, and 50-week moving averages as a ‘piling on' effect from the peak hawkishness in the markets.  However, if things calm down in these summer months and pricing consolidates through time, then those moving averages will coalesce and smooth out. This could rhyme with last summer's sideways consolidation period, where the moving averages narrowed and built the energy for the short-duration price averages to break above the longer-duration price average to kick off the next leg higher in the bull market. He believes most of the corrective move has now happened at this point; noting that every time gold moved below $4,000 that we witnessed strong buying come in to snap it back up over that level. Craig reiterated that even if 2026 was to end the year flat and somewhere around the $4,340 level where it opened this year, that this would be solid performance after the outsized gains in gold on a percentage basis from 2024 and 2025. Gold producers were chopped in half, on extreme negative sentiment from the falling metals prices paired with rising energy prices ever since the war broke out in March.   Later in July and into August we'll start getting the actual Q2 earnings reports from the PM producers, and Craig feels that they may surprise many investors to the upside.  The average price of the metals and margins actually were higher than many quarters from last year, and definitely a stark difference compared to Q2 of 2025, for the year-over-year comparisons. Additionally, the actual effect of the higher oil prices on producers input costs versus the perceptions will be another key data point to follow. The fear around higher energy prices was the rationale many used to drop the valuation in producers by 40%-60%, even though the energy inputs only come in around 10%-15% of costs, and  so the concerns were way overblown by skittish investors throughout Q2. As we receive Q3 guidance, it will come at time where oil prices are essentially right back down to where they were at before the war even began, which should bake those concerns back out of the cost estimates. The Fed funds futures have swung to both extremes, coming into the year expecting 2 rate cuts, and flip-flopping by going to peak hawkishness and pricing in 2 rate hikes just a few weeks back, after Kevin Warsh's first press conference post FOMC meeting. Craig expects that as we get more data and those inflation expectations start to equilibrate, that the market will shift to more neutral Fed policy guidance moving into the Fall, which will be a boon for the precious metals sector. All eyes will be on the CPI and PPI  numbers 2 weeks from now for more clarity on the trend in inflation.      Click here to visit Craig's website – TF Metals Report – https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/       For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.    

Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard talks about what he expects the upcoming FOMC minutes will tell us about the Fed's direction under Kevin Warsh. He discusses fixed income strategies to consider as crude oil prices cool but inflation concerns stay elevated. Cooper adds that the Fed is likely to remain on hold for interest rates but admits Friday's job report gave the Fed some runway.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Fed's plans to create task forces to monitor economic data will help keep the FOMC on track to hold interest rates, says Yelena Shulyatyeva. That said, she tells investors to brace for hawkish FOMC minutes hitting the wire this week. Yelena also explains why she doesn't see inflation becoming a long-term overhang and points to other risks in the jobs market. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The June jobs report signals some surprise weakness on the Fed's employment side of the dual mandate, says Jeff Pierce of Charles Schwab. However, he doesn't believe it points to signs of recession. Jeff outlines what the print means for the FOMC's path forward on interest rates and explains how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's commentary plays into his reasoning. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

While oil continues to be a key story for commodities markets, gold has been gathering more attention lately. The initial optimism after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding ran into a hawkish FOMC, severing the connection between energy prices and rates and leading us to reassess the key demand channels for the metal. In this episode, we discuss our updated expectations for gold's recovery.   Speaker:  Greg Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy     Add disclosures when there is a related report (add date and GPS ID for the report)   This podcast was recorded on July 2, 2026.   This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5352313-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.  

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speaks to CNBC at the ECB Forum in Sintra that the U.S. central bank will be looking at overhauling how it conducts monetary policy but insists that bringing down inflation will be his primary objective. OpenAI has reportedly hinted it may give a 5 per cent to the U.S. government in a bid to curry favour with the White House. Oil slumps to four-month lows after negotiators claim indirect U.S.-Iran talks have progressed well in Doha. Further talks may proceed as early as next week. And we are live at Canary Wharf with Squawk On The Road. We hear from Canary Wharf CEO Shobi Khan tells CNBC that despite global turmoil and presumptive Prime Minister Andy Burnham's plans to shake up Westminster, London still remains a haven of stability for business.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh saying he'd rather have a “good family fight” with his FOMC colleagues at the next rate decision meeting than give forward guidance. Journalist and author Sebastian Mallaby weighs in on what's holding OpenAI back, how Google is pulling ahead and why it's in the best interests of both nations if the US and China coordinate on AI. Plus, Wolfe Research upgrades Fox, saying its merger with Roku will scale Fox's general entertainment streaming and could double its long-term sales growth rate.   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders talks about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at ECB forum in Portugal and what consumers can expect from the FOMC moving forward. Investors have their eyes on end of the U.S.-Iran war and lower oil prices, but Liz Ann doesn't believe that will end U.S. inflation woes.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Ahmed Riesgo makes the case that the Fed does not need to raise interest rates, believing core inflation has not risen drastically enough to warrant a hike. Even if the FOMC raises rates, he expects small caps to continue a stellar rally seen in recent months. Ahmed turns to equities be measuring demand for AI memory, along with the runway it still holds for companies like Micron (MU) and SanDisk (SNDK). He then offers insights into the global picture and his outlook for third quarter.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In the second part of their conversation, host Aymeric Poizot and Fitch Chief Economist Brian Coulton turn to the market fallout from the latest FOMC meeting and what the Fed's reset means over the longer term.They unpack the bear-flattening of the Treasury curve, the role of falling oil prices and stretched equity valuations, and how a smaller Fed balance sheet, rising supply, and a higher term premium could keep yields elevated. The discussion closes with the credit implications of a "higher for longer” environment from leveraged borrowers and government debt to the pressures facing the housing market.

Semis closing out their best quarter ever - and the Nasdaq's best in years: Carl Quintanilla, Leslie Picker, and David Faber broke down what comes next for the group with Citi's top equity strategist and talked regulation with Alex Stamos, former security chief at Facebook. Plus: details on more key decisions out of the Supreme Court on campaign finances and birthright citizenship... along with a live interview you don't want to miss spanning inflation, rates, and more - with FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack.  Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mentor Sessions Ep. 080: Fed Removes Forward Guidance, Bitcoin Cycles Break & AI's Real Impact | Joe Carlasare, American HODL & Dr. Jeff RossBitcoin may be bottoming right now — and Dr. Jeff Ross, American HODL, and Joe Carlasare just laid out exactly why. The Fed dropped forward guidance, MSTR has underperformed Bitcoin by 60%, and leverage is destroying portfolios. Here's the macro update you need to hear.In this episode you'll get Jeff Ross's case for why we're bumbling along a bear market bottom, Joe Carlasare's breakdown of the most impactful FOMC since the Bernanke era, and American HODL's blunt take on why leverage is not a time machine to being a Bitcoin OG. You'll also learn why Saylor's 32-BTC sale was a deliberate narrative violation, how three global currency blocs are forming around the dollar, gold-backed China, and Bitcoin, and what the rotation into hard assets means for the second half of 2026.⏱️ Timestamps:0:00 - Intro1:32 - Joe on Fed Paradigm Shift and Dropping Guidance3:49 - Jeff Ross Don't Fight Fiscal Stimulus5:27 - Dollar Strength Risk-Off Impact on Bitcoin8:01 - American HODL on Fed Shocking Markets Upside14:39 - Greenspan-Style Fed Under Kevin Warsh for Bitcoin16:17 - Iran Geopolitics and Three-Bloc Currency World23:26 - US Economy Check Manufacturing Real Estate GDP29:37 - AI Jobs and Low Actual Usage Rates44:07 - Bitcoin Cycles Debate Case For and Against47:15 - 2026 Resembles 2022 Treasury Firms vs Exchanges55:30 - Michael Saylor MSTR Underperformance Narrative Shift1:00:22 - 32 BTC Sale as Test Transaction Explained1:05:16 - Leverage Not Shortcut to Bitcoin OG Status1:10:04 - Q4 2026 Hard Assets Rotation Bitcoin Outlook

Charles Schwab's Collin Martin says he's not expecting any changes to the Fed's balance sheet anytime soon as Kevin Warsh and the other FOMC members tackle sticky inflation. As for Warsh's upcoming speech, Collin urges investors to pay attention not to "what he says, but how he says it" regarding the Fed's forward expectations. Also keep an eye out for the June jobs report that Wall Street will get Thursday.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Although markets may recalibrate to a different policy playbook under the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, housing could remain in a holding pattern. Our co-heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other co-head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today, the glow has maybe worn off the championship of the Knicks, so we can talk about the impact of Warsh on the mortgage and housing market. It's Friday, June 26th at 10am in New York. James Egan: If we have to stop talking about the Knicks, we can stop talking about the Knicks. But Jay, I think one of the things, if we take a little bit of a step back in mortgage markets, in housing markets, in fixed income markets more broadly – from the beginning of the year to now, we've gone from the market pricing in 2.5 cuts from the Fed by the end of 2026, to the market pricing in roughly 1.5 hikes. 100 basis point difference in market expectations over the course of the past five and a half months. Now, that's happened at different times, with different levels of velocity and severity. But one of the key talking points we have now is – we have a new Fed chair. We had the first FOMC meeting and his press conference after that last Wednesday. What do you think that means for mortgage markets, for volatility? How are you thinking about this? Jay Bacow: look, Jim, it's a great question, and we've got asked that by a number of different investors. Chair Warsh has been pretty clear that he thinks people should do more of what they're good at and less of what they're not good at. And so, he's felt like the Fed should keep their communication on future guidance relatively short. And so, with less forward guidance from the Fed, the market has more uncertainty, and more uncertainty translates into more volatility. And more volatility is generally bad for the mortgage market, given that investors are short the option to the homeowner to refinance. Furthermore, shifting from expectations of the Fed cutting to expectations of the Fed hiking generally makes it a little bit less favorable environment for investors like banks and overseas investors to come to the mortgage market. James Egan: Alright. Now, we've been on this podcast several times this year where we've talked about, you mentioned banks... We've talked about deregulation. We've talked about Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the GSEs – them buying mortgages, that being constructive for our mortgage view.Is that still the case, or how are you layering that into your thought process? Jay Bacow: now? That's definitely still the case. Those things haven't changed. The deregulation is still flowing through the markets. That longer term should be supportive of bank demand in aggregate, although obviously there are a number of different regulations going through. The GSEs are still forecasted to buy 200 billion mortgages on behalf of President Trump's initiative. So, that's why we're just sort of tactically negative – those technicals are very strong in an environment where there really has not been much supply. Now, some of that supply is because mortgage rates are still in the context of 6.5 percent. Some of that is because with mortgage rates at 6.5 percent, there hasn't been that much housing activity. So, Jim, turning it to you, what is the outlook for the housing market in a world where they are expecting the Fed to hike and rates to stay elevated? James Egan: Right. So, the main thing that we focus on from a housing market perspective is less specifically Fed action and more the 5- and 10-year part of the curve.So, when you start to say something like you're tactically negative mortgage-backed securities here – how can I interpret that from a mortgage rate perspective? Jay Bacow: If we're tactically negative, it's more of a small move than some massive move. And as you said, and we've talked about on this call beforehand, realistically, the mortgage rate is a little bit less dependent on the Fed policy rate and more around the belly of the Treasury curve. And, you know, what's going to happen with the belly of the Treasury curve is going to be dependent on sort of market expectations along with what's happening in the geopolitical situation. So realistically, if you've written down that the mortgage rate is 6.5 percent right now, our view probably doesn't change things too much. James Egan: And if that's the case, then affordability in the housing market, as we've been talking about, is going to continue to be challenged. And what we think that means from a housing activity perspective is any upside that we really thought would have been there gets pretty significantly capped. But the same side of this token – or the other side of this token, if you will, we do think that the current level is well-supported here. There's some level of housing activity that has to occur regardless of where affordability is, and we think we found that. We're at 40-year lows from a turnover perspective. From the fourth quarter of 2023 through now, we've been roughly at the same level. That's 11 consecutive quarters now. We think this is the kind of base level for people that need to transact regardless of where mortgage rates are. So, the more that the rate environment remains challenged, the more that we kind of hang in this low to mid 6 percent mortgage rate environment. We just think that that continues to curtail upside. So, it's a housing market and a housing activity space that continues to very much just remain stuck in neutral. Jay Bacow: Alright. So, if we're in this new environment and the Fed might be hiking, it's not great locally for mortgage valuations. Housing market more broadly, probably kind of stuck in neutral here. Jim, always a pleasure speaking with you. James Egan: And always great speaking to you too, Jay. And to all of our regular listeners, thank you for adding us to your playlist. Let us know what you think wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today. Jay Bacow: And go smash that subscribe button.

The Last Trade: Jackson, Michael, and Brian go signal versus noise on the most confusing Bitcoin tape in years, with Bitcoin in the 50s and roughly 50% off its all-time high. They make the deep value case (a 5-year DCA into Bitcoin now nearly matches the S&P 500 while sitting 50% below its highs, the 200-week moving average flashing, and a gold analog that ran 750% off a similar drawdown), break down the Strategy / stretch (STRC) confidence crisis and why the whole DAT experiment increasingly looks like an objective failure, and riff on Warsh's Fed, the hyperscaler free cash flow cliff, Trump's quantum order, and Meta moving into prediction markets.---

Kevin Warsh's Reformist Vision for the Federal Reserve. Guest: Joseph Sternberg. Sternberg analyzes Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, noting a shift toward shorter policy statements and the removal of the "dot plot" forecasting tool. Warsh is initiating five task forces to reform the Fed's intellectual framework, specifically targeting productivity, data quality, and balance sheet management. 7

SCHEDULE JBS, 6-23-2026.1936Alan Greenspan's Legacy and the New Fed Chair. Guest: Elizabeth Peek. This segment reflects on the passing of Alan Greenspan and the transition to Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. Peek highlights Warsh's goal to reform data collection and move away from forecasting, favoring real-time data over the traditional, often confusing, communication styles of his predecessors like Greenspan. 1The Resilient US Consumer and AI Infrastructure. Guest: Elizabeth Peek. Despite concerns over tariffs and wars, consumer spending remains robust, fueled by record stock market levels and rising low-end wages. Peek argues against AI alarmism, noting that massive investments in AI infrastructure are creating a surge in blue-collar job demand for skilled trades like welding and construction. 2Critiquing the Memo of Understanding with Iran. Guest: Jonathan Schanzer. Schanzer describes the newly established Memo of Understanding as a "dog's breakfast" that grants the Iranian regime significant sanctions relief and upfront cash. He argues the agreement appears to be an American defeat, particularly regarding the shaky nuclear inspection protocols and the uncertain status of the Strait of Hormuz. 3Hezbollah's Role and the Fog of Middle East Diplomacy. Guest: Jonathan Schanzer. The discussion focuses on Hezbollah as a "wholly owned subsidiary" of Iran, with the IRGC directing its activities in Lebanon. Schanzer criticizes the administration for expecting Israel to adhere to a ceasefire while Iran continues to provoke attacks, labeling the current diplomatic strategy as improvised and potentially harmful. 4Secretary Rubio's Reassurance Mission to Gulf Allies. Guest: Mary Kissel. Secretary of State Marco Rubio travels to the Gulf to reassure the UAE, Kuwait, and Bahrain of U.S. security commitments following Iranian attacks. Kissel criticizes the administration for granting Iran sanctions relief and 60-day exemptions, arguing that the diplomatic effort prioritizes "hope over experience" regarding Iranian nuclear ambitions. 5The Impact of Foreign Policy on Domestic Midterms. Guest: Mary Kissel. Kissel examines whether foreign policy influences American voters, noting it is rare compared to "pocketbook" issues like inflation and interest rates. She warns that adversarial regimes like Iran and China are sophisticated observers of the U.S. electoral calendar and may attempt to influence domestic politics. 6Kevin Warsh's Reformist Vision for the Federal Reserve. Guest: Joseph Sternberg. Sternberg analyzes Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting, noting a shift toward shorter policy statements and the removal of the "dot plot" forecasting tool. Warsh is initiating five task forces to reform the Fed's intellectual framework, specifically targeting productivity, data quality, and balance sheet management. 7The Turmoil of British Leadership and the Labour Party. Guest: Joseph Sternberg. This segment explores the potential replacement of Keir Starmer with Andy Burnham as UK Prime Minister. Sternberg argues that Labour's struggles go beyond charisma, involving a lack of clear economic direction and the failure to address core voter concerns like the broken NHS and illegal immigration. 8The Geopolitical Chessboard of the Strait of Hormuz. Guest: Gregory Copley. Copley discusses the power struggles within Iran and the strategic card of the Strait of Hormuz. He notes that while the strait is "more or less open," the situation remains in flux, with regional players like Turkey seeking to thwart Iranian ambitions in the Mediterranean. 9Xi Jinping's Strategic Outreach to North Korea. Guest: Gregory Copley. Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang is seen as a move to reassert Chinese influence over North Korea as Kim Jong-un shifts away from communist identity. Kim is positioning himself as an equal to Xi while strengthening his ties with Russia, creating a complex ideological shift in the region. 10British Political Fragmentation and the Immigration Crisis. Guest: Gregory Copley. Britain has seen seven prime ministers in ten years due to political fragmentation over illegal immigration and European relations. Copley suggests that the Labour Party is failing to represent the British working class, which favors traditional values and stricter border controls, leading to a rise in alternative parties. 11The Crown as a Symbol of British Identity. Guest: Gregory Copley. Amidst political instability, King Charles III is viewed as a dynamic symbol of national dignity and continuity. The segment discusses the King's role in stabilizing the United Kingdom following Prime Minister Starmer's resignation and managing sensitive royal family matters to preserve the image of the monarchy. 12Recovering the Original Understanding of Unalienable Rights. Guest: Peter Berkowitz. Berkowitz reflects on the 2019 Commission on Unalienable Rights, which sought to ground human rights in the American founding tradition. The commission aimed to counter the "proliferating industry" of rights that often serves partisan progressive ends, emphasizing the Universal Declaration of Human Rights' original austere framework. 13Unalienable Rights and the Challenge of Foreign Policy. Guest: Peter Berkowitz. This segment discusses applying founding principles to modern diplomacy, specifically condemning the Chinese Communist Party's crimes against the Uyghurs. Berkowitz argues that despite economic entanglements, the United States must maintain its dedication to universal principles and use its diplomatic toolbox to address massive human rights violations. 14The Strategic Failure of the Iran Memo of Understanding. Guest: Thaddeus McCotter. McCotter analyzes the Memo of Understanding, highlighting unresolved issues like the Strait of Hormuz and the $80 billion war funding request. He argues the administration is trying to make kinetic action palatable to voters while failing to secure meaningful concessions on Iran's nuclear program or its sponsorship of terrorism. 15The Republican Fissures and Potential Third-Party Movements. Guest: Thaddeus McCotter. The discussion centers on Tucker Carlson's potential departure from the Republican Party over foreign policy disagreements. McCotter suggests this reflects deeper fault lines within the MAGA base, where isolationist tendencies and dissatisfaction with the administration's relationship with allies like Israel could lead to future political discord. 16

Today we were thrilled to welcome back Daan Struyven, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research and Managing Director, Head of Oil Research at Goldman Sachs. Daan joined Goldman in 2015 and previously co-led Goldman Sachs' Global Economics team as well as the firm's Canada Economics research effort. Daan and his team recently wrote a report titled “EV Sales Acceleration Poses Downside Risk to Global Oil Demand.” We were pleased to hear Daan's perspective on the report, the acceleration in global EV adoption following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption, the outlook for global oil demand and oil prices, and what investors should be watching across the broader energy landscape. In our conversation, we explore the key findings from Goldman Sachs' recent research on EV adoption, including how higher fuel prices and concerns around energy security may have accelerated EV sales across several major global markets following the Iran/Hormuz supply disruption. We discuss the significant differences in EV penetration rates around the world, the growing influence of Chinese manufacturers, the importance of charging and power infrastructure, and the role government policy continues to play in shaping adoption trends. We examine the outlook for global oil demand, including Goldman's view that oil demand continues to grow through 2040 despite rising EV adoption, supported by growing energy consumption and the limited availability of substitutes for petrochemical feedstocks and jet fuel. We discuss the recovery of Middle East oil production and exports following the conflict, OPEC supply dynamics, strategic petroleum reserves and stockpiling activity, and why oil prices did not rise as much as many expected during the Iran war disruption. We touch on investor sentiment toward energy markets, China's role as both a major EV market and a stabilizing force in global oil demand through stockpiling behavior, and tightening power markets driven by rising electricity demand from AI and data centers. We also discuss the interplay between future oil prices, power prices, and EV adoption. Finally, we cover advancements in battery technology, the long-term implications for both the energy transition and global commodity markets, and more. We greatly appreciate Daan for sharing his time and perspectives. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that market volatility is becoming more prevalent across asset classes. From a fixed income perspective, the 10-year Treasury yield is holding steady at approximately 4.5%, with traders closely focused on this week's PCE Index as a key inflation indicator, particularly in light of the Federal Reserve's more hawkish tone following last week's FOMC meeting. In equities, he emphasized the increasing volatility observed in recent trading sessions, especially within Big Tech and the Nasdaq, with semiconductor and chip stocks coming under notable pressure and with several declining by more than 10%. He suggested that market leadership may be shifting, as the Nasdaq lags while the Dow Jones Industrial Average demonstrates relative resilience. Turning to commodities, WTI crude has fallen to around $73/bbl, marking its lowest level since the first week of the Iran conflict. WTI has broken below its 200-day moving average, indicating that oil appears “broken” from a technical trading perspective. He also highlighted a rapid shift in market sentiment, moving from concerns about tightening global inventories to fears that OPEC supply could increase sooner and more significantly than expected. In energy equities, he observed that the sector has declined modestly over recent trading days, with Oil Services bearing the brunt of the losses. Electric utilities have outperformed, serving as a temporary safe haven for investors. He ended by pointing out two notable headlines: first, a partnership between Chevron and Microsoft to develop a co-located power facility in West Texas that will supply electricity to a Microsoft-operated data center under a 20-year PPA; and second, the Department of Energy's announcement of $17.5 billion in financing to help incentivize/jump start utilities to order equipment for large-scale nuclear reactors. Ellen Wilkirson made her COBT debut and added her questions and perspective to the discussion as well. 

The last time Austan Goolsbee voted in an FOMC meeting, he was one of two policymakers opposed to cutting interest rates. Six months later, he doesn't regret that dissent. In this episode, Kai catches up with the Chicago Fed president to discuss the central bank's communication style, persistent inflation concerns, and former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan's legacy. Plus: Beef prices are likely to keep climbing this year, it could take months to rebuild depleted oil reserves, and economists make a case that AI could drive more inflation.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories from today's episode:Chicago Fed President: Inflation is "well above the target and has been going the wrong way"As the oil crisis eases, the global scramble to replenish reserves beginsWhy beef prices keep climbingMany economists believe that AI will lead to more inflation. Why?How We Survive: A Carbon Burial at Sea

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson reacts to Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting, explaining why the new chair's credibility may require letting markets experience some short-term pain.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing my views on the New Fed Chair and how to interpret his FOMC meeting last week.It's Monday, June 22nd at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it.I want to spend today on what I think was one of the more important market events of the year so far. Kevin Warsh's first Fed meeting as the Chair. Specifically, he is trying to fortify credibility at a very delicate moment. The economy is stronger than many expected. Inflation is still running above target. And markets have become accustomed to central banks telling them exactly what to think.Back in February, when Warsh was nominated, I argued that this was the right choice if the goal was to lift market credibility. At that time, precious metals were rising parabolically. To me that was a bad signal that markets were questioning whether policy makers could really run the economy hot without creating a disorderly move in the dollar or a broader inflation problem.Since Warsh's nomination, the S&P 500-to-gold ratio is up close to 40 percent, and I view that as a powerful vote of confidence from the markets. It suggests investors are giving Warsh the benefit of the doubt – that he can shake up the Fed, reduce reliance on the balance sheet as a policy tool, and solidify discipline that gives the administration some breathing room.But here's the catch. Enhancing credibility is not always painless. In fact, credibility must be earned by doing something markets don't immediately like. And last week had some of that flavor. Stocks weakened, the yield curve bear-flattened, the dollar strengthened, and precious metals sold off. From my perspective, that is not a failed first meeting. That is a good and necessary first step. What stood out to me most was Warsh's emphasis on the inflation mandate. He made it very clear that the Fed's primary responsibility is price stability – not managing every wiggle in the labor market, not smoothing every risk asset drawdown, and not hand-holding investors through every data point. And frankly, after five years of missing the inflation target, that message was overdue.The stronger economy and improving private payroll data give the Fed room to lean into that message. I don't think this means the Fed is about to hike rates immediately, or even necessarily this year. But it does mean the reaction function has changed, and markets do not like uncertainty around the Fed path.The other major shift was communication. Warsh appears to be moving away from excessive forward guidance, and I think that's a very healthy development. For years, I've argued that the Fed became too influential in shaping not only market behavior, but also how investors interpreted the data. When markets are only trying to guess what the Fed will say next, the Fed loses the value of market prices as an independent signal. That's backwards. Markets should be reacting to incoming information, and the Fed should be learning from those reactions – not vice versa.A little less Fed hand-holding may be uncomfortable, but ironically it is necessary to get to a more stable place. Investors may not like it in the short term, but the system works better when market prices are less impeded by policy manipulation. The wisdom of crowds is often better than the wisdom of committees.The near-term risk for equities is not rate hikes or even uncertainty. It's liquidity. Balance sheet support has already started to fade. The Reserve Management Program is down roughly 75 percent from its peak, Treasury buybacks have been reduced by 50 percent. And at the same time lending growth is accelerating because the real economy is using more capital. That combination means liquidity is tightening, and our work suggests that could remain a headwind for stocks into July.Bottom line, the market may test Warsh's resolve. That's what markets do. The key question is whether the Fed tolerates some short-term pain in order to strengthen longer-term credibility. My guess is that it tries to do exactly that, until funding markets, credit markets, or bond volatility forces its hand to add more liquidity and loosen financial conditions again. That argues for choppy and even corrective price action in equity markets in the near term until the earnings led bull market has its next leg higher. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

The last time Austan Goolsbee voted in an FOMC meeting, he was one of two policymakers opposed to cutting interest rates. Six months later, he doesn't regret that dissent. In this episode, Kai catches up with the Chicago Fed president to discuss the central bank's communication style, persistent inflation concerns, and former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan's legacy. Plus: Beef prices are likely to keep climbing this year, it could take months to rebuild depleted oil reserves, and economists make a case that AI could drive more inflation.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories from today's episode:Chicago Fed President: Inflation is "well above the target and has been going the wrong way"As the oil crisis eases, the global scramble to replenish reserves beginsWhy beef prices keep climbingMany economists believe that AI will lead to more inflation. Why?How We Survive: A Carbon Burial at Sea

The Iran deal looked like a breakthrough until both sides started spinning it within the hour, but oil kept falling and the dollar stayed bid anyway. Marty and John walk through a week of narrative violations, from WTI dropping into the mid seventies to Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish first FOMC press conference. They dig into why hyperscaler CapEx exploding while free cash flow collapses makes Volcker 2.0 impossible, how housing affordability and debt service are pushing the Fed and Treasury back together, and why frontier AI is now a state secret. They also check in on Bitcoin's quiet grind, with Taiwan's central bank exploring reserves and BlackRock still building products in the background.

The Federal Reserve's latest policy shift under new governor chair Kevin Warsh marks a significant regime change for global markets. With the dot plot revealing two potential rate hikes and a shift away from forward-looking guidance, investors face heightened market uncertainty across stocks, crypto, and real estate. This discussion cuts through the media noise to analyze macro data points, including the geopolitical resolution with Iran, falling energy prices, and the approaching $930 billion commercial debt maturity wall. While mainstream capital retreats to the stock market, sophisticated investors recognize that slow, stale, and sideways markets offer generational opportunities. This episode explains the math behind negative leverage, the critical role of the 10-year Treasury note, and why the absolute best real estate deals are historically secured before rate cuts occur, not after. Discover how to build defensive buffers into your underwriting parameters to transform macroeconomic headwinds into asymmetric long-term wealth. KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDMacroeconomic analysis of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting and monetary policy adjustments Geopolitical implications of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding and its impact on global crude oil volatility Understanding the "Fed Trap" and balancing the risks of reigniting inflation versus fracturing economic growth Technical evaluation of the 10-year Treasury note as the foundational gravitational force for commercial lending benchmarks Financial underwriting frameworks for identifying and avoiding negative leverage in a 6% to 7% interest rate environment Strategic management of the upcoming $930 billion maturing commercial real estate debt wall Asset allocation rotation from overvalued equity sectors into distressed, undervalued real estate opportunities KEY TAKEAWAYSLock in your real estate opportunities before the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Historically, the most profitable assets are acquired when market sentiment is deeply depressed and capital sits passively on the sidelines. Treat the Federal Reserve's policy decisions as macroeconomic weather rather than an absolute indicator of deal viability. Successful investing relies on strict individual deal underwriting rather than relying on central bank rescue parameters. Address floating-rate debt maturities 12 to 18 months in advance. Initiating proactive refinancing and restructuring conversations with lenders prevents forced liquidations when interest rate environments shift. Implement structural buffers of 50 to 100 basis points above current market rates when modeling new investments. Ensuring a deal cash-flows under restrictive conditions turns future monetary easing into pure financial upside. Monitor the 10-year Treasury note on a weekly basis to filter out short-term market noise. A sustained technical break below the 4% threshold serves as the primary signal that institutional debt conditions are turning positive. CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONSchedule a professional portfolio review with Ryan's team: Text "X-ray" to 844-447-1555 Build steady mailbox money with the Imagos Income Fund: Text "income" to 844-447-1555 Join the exclusive newsletter for unfiltered market insights: Text "WIB" to 844-447-1555 Access institutional investor resources and trackers: thewiseinvestorvault.com Gain direct access to accredited private placement deal flow: Text "deals" to 844-447-1555 Review comprehensive media notes and digital resources: millionairemindcast.com Connect directly with Matty A on corporate social channels: @officialmattya

Warsh set up 5 task forces to study inflation. You only study a problem when you don't want to solve it. Same game, new players.This episode is sponsored by InvestingPRO. Get 55% off + an EXTRA 15% off with my code PETERSCHIFF at checkout! Sign up: https://www.investing-referral.com/peterschiff/This episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish surprise — rates held at 3.5-3.75% unanimously, forward guidance was eliminated, and dot plots now project two rate hikes by year-end. But Peter Schiff argues it's all theater. Instead of actually fighting inflation, Warsh announced five new task forces to "study" the Fed's balance sheet, communications, data sources, jobs, and inflation itself — the classic government move of establishing committees to avoid solving problems.Warsh acknowledged inflation is a choice, and Schiff agrees — the Fed has chosen inflation over the alternative of crashing markets and forcing fiscal responsibility since the Greenspan era. The question is whether Warsh will break that tradition when push comes to shove. Schiff says no: Trump won't tolerate a bear market, the Treasury Secretary is having weekly breakfasts with the Fed Chair, and the political pressure to print will overwhelm any hawkish posturing. Meanwhile, Strategy's death spiral accelerated with Stretch falling to $89 — wiping out the entire annual yield in one month — while Saylor continues diluting common shareholders to fund dividends he can't sustain. SpaceX soared past $3 trillion on a 4% float, sucking speculative capital away from crypto and accelerating Bitcoin's decline to $64,000.Chapters:00:00 Warsh Shocks Markets00:45 Rates Hold Steady01:26 Trump Versus Powell03:42 Shortest Fed Statement06:01 Ample Reserves Contradiction07:13 Five Task Forces Announced32:18 Term Insurance Not Investing33:40 Fed Task Forces Skepticism39:56 Inflation Tax And Politics44:37 SpaceX IPO Mania47:23 Bitcoin Strategy Death Spiral55:37 Gold Silver Buy The Dip56:29 Same Fed Same Game Wrap Up58:29 Closing And Follow MeFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #FOMCOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out DBJourney and use my code Schiff15 for a great deal: https://dbjourney.com* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

This week, we unpack a massive news cycle, starting with the geopolitical and economic implications of the newly announced Iran conflict agreement and its immediate impact on oil prices. We also preview the highly anticipated first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh, analyzing recent inflation data and consumer spending trends to predict whether a July rate cut is still on the table.We dive deep into the markets, examining the latest S&P 500 volatility and why the AI sector still has room to run without being in a bubble. Finally, we break down SpaceX's massive $60 billion acquisition of Cursor, explore the hidden bear trap within the ongoing SpaceX IPO retail pump, and analyze the very real risks of Michael Saylor facing a margin call on his leveraged Bitcoin strategy.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDGeopolitical market impacts from the US-Iran MOU and falling oil pricesFed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting and rate cut expectationsMay PPI and CPI inflation data versus slowing summer consumer spendingS&P 500 technical analysis and the potential for a gap fill correctionSpaceX's $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI company CursorFTX's missed $3 billion return on early Cursor investmentsPost-IPO retail liquidity traps and the upcoming SpaceX share lockup expirationMSTR convertible debt risks and Michael Saylor's Bitcoin margin call scenarioThe stale real estate market and million-dollar starter homes in 242 citiesFannie Mae backing a $4.2 million real estate transaction using Bitcoin collateralKEY TAKEAWAYSDo not fall for the retail IPO trap. With 95% of SpaceX shares locked up, the current price pump is retail-driven, creating a potential bear trap when insider lockups expire next June.AI is not a bubble; it is a fundamental tech shift. Massive capital movements, like SpaceX acquiring Cursor for $60 billion, prove that intelligent money is still betting heavily on AI integration and efficiency.Over-leveraged Bitcoin strategies carry catastrophic risks. If MicroStrategy cannot meet its dividend or debt obligations, the resulting sell-off could trigger a massive margin call and crash the broader crypto market.Real estate requires extreme patience in this environment. With starter homes hitting $1 million in record cities and interest rates staying elevated, the smartest strategy is to prioritize cash flow and conservative underwriting over volume.Pay attention to geopolitical relief for economic upside. If the Iran conflict resolution holds, falling energy prices will significantly cool inflation data, giving the Fed the exact cover they need to initiate rate cuts.PULL QUOTES"Only 5% of SpaceX stock is floating right now. When the 95% lockup expires next June, retail investors will get caught in a massive bear trap.""AI is not a bubble. It is simply the new stage of the world, and companies are deploying massive capital into where the leverage will be next.""It is better to do no deal than a bad deal. Real estate is in a stale decade, and you have to be wildly conservative with your capital."CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONGet your investment portfolio reviewed by Ryan's team: Text "X-ray" to 844-447-1555Discover the Imagos Income Fund for consistent passive returns: Text "income" to 844-447-1555Subscribe to the Wealth Intelligence Brief newsletter: Text "WIB" to 844-447-1555

Kevin Warsh's first FOMC presser. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, leaving markets to parse the dot plot and his press conference for clues on the path ahead. If Warsh signals a more dovish stance than markets are pricing, bitcoin could react positively. CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily." - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.

Nvidia just joined the likes of Amazon and Alphabet in selling off billions of dollars in bonds. What do these tech giants need help financing? Data centers, of course, to support the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. For now, the cash is flowing, but when will these firms need to show some returns on those investments? Also in this episode: Commercial solar energy projects approach a deadline for federal tax credits, Fox enters the streaming wars by acquiring Roku, and Kai breaks down the history of post-FOMC press conferences.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the signals investors will be seeking from the new Fed Chair leading his first monetary policy meeting and possible implications for markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, markets are watching the Fed's next move. Are rate cuts delayed or could hikes possibly be back on the table? It's Tuesday, June 16th at 8:30am in New York. So, Mike, the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow is likely more about reading the signal rather than announcing a rate change. Markets will focus on inflation forecasts, the unemployment rate, and the growth outlook. But, of course, this will also be the first meeting after Powell ended his term as Fed chair in May. All eyes will be on Warsh. So, what are your thoughts before the press conference? Michael Gapen: A lot of thoughts, actually, before the press conference. I do think it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be changing its easing bias in favor of more neutral language. Seems clear the committee wants to do that, probably wanted to do that at the last meeting. And it does fit, I think, Warsh's preference for less communication, less guidance from the Fed. So, I do think that's largely a foregone conclusion, although obviously we need to see whether that happens and whether there are dissents. I think, as you noted, the forecasts will be important, but I think what's really important from my perspective – more than the modal outlook or the baseline that participants have – is their assessment of the balance of risks around the dual mandate. And I say that because obviously a year ago, the Fed eased policy when it felt that there were downside risks to the labor market that outweighed upside risk to inflation. This year, that seems to have flipped, where the labor market appears to have stabilized, labor demand has picked up a little bit, and it is inflation that looks persistent. So, if the Fed cut last year on downside risk to the labor market, I think the concern for markets is – maybe they hike in 2027 or later this year based on a changing balance of risks in the direction of firmer inflation. So, for me, that's really kind of key. In addition to what they're saying about growth inflation in the labor market, what is their assessment of the distribution of risks around that modal forecast? Matthew Hornbach: There's definitely going to be a lot of investor interest in the press conference itself. What exactly may result from the opening statement. Presumably, Chair Warsh will give an opening statement. How are you thinking about the back and forth between Warsh and the reporters that are asking questions? Are there certain questions that you would anticipate him getting asked, and how do you think he might respond? Michael Gapen: Well, I think certainly that if we are correct, and I think markets are correct, that they do change forward guidance in the statement to more neutral bias, that certainly opens up the possibility that the Fed will be hiking. So, the obvious first question is – is this the first step in the direction of hiking? What would get you to raise rates? Should investors be thinking about that? Is that the course of travel here? Now Warsh may not want to answer that if he, kind of, is consistent in the view of saying the Fed shouldn't give a lot of forward guidance. So maybe get some popcorn, Matt. It could be a situation where he gets asked questions about the future path of monetary policy, and maybe he decides, ‘I don't want to take that up right now. The data will tell us, and we'll do what's necessary.' And second, I think as you're noting and getting to about the structure of the press conference and what he might say is; past Federal Reserve chairs, let's say from Bernanke on, have found the press conference – the press conference statement, the questions, the format, the venue – as a way to control the narrative. And I think what will be interesting is to see whether Warsh has the same design. The risk, of course, is perhaps that he doesn't and pulls back the amount of communication guidance that he wants to give. And then we'll see what fills that vacuum. What narrative fills that vacuum? And is he okay with that? So, it may be that there's a new sheriff in town, and he chooses that there's some questions I'll answer, others I won't. And so, I do think that interaction with the press corps will be interesting. Hard to know exactly where it's going to come down until we see it in real time. Matthew Hornbach: During Chair Warsh's testimony to Congress, he alluded to the idea that potentially the Fed may not do a press conference at every meeting going forward. How are you thinking about that in the context of this idea that if you leave a void, somebody else may fill it? Michael Gapen: Obviously, the Fed used to not have press conferences at all, and then they moved to having them quarterly or four times a year. And they found that that was a little suboptimal because it became harder to make decisions and changes in the off-press conference meetings [be]cause they didn't have a venue to explain what they were doing and what they were thinking. So, they migrated to eight meetings. So, I think it's kind of twofold. Yes, it would mean that they speak less and therefore maybe their word doesn't carry as much weight. Or there's longer gaps for other narratives to come in. Like, do we lose forward guidance from the Fed, and is that replaced by forward guidance from the Treasury, for example? How do markets weigh those signals? And but then also I would say would that ultimately box in the Fed to only make decisions on quarterly meetings rather than eight times a year? Would the chair, for example… Let's assume that at some point in the future, the Fed decides it does want to raise interest rates. Historically, the Fed does not surprise on rate hikes. It's perfectly willing to surprise on rate cuts, when it comes to that. But if there is a world where the Fed does decide, ‘Hey, we do need to raise rates, but we don't have a press conference to explain our view.' Would they take the decision at that meeting or would they wait? So, does it reduce their opportunity set? Matthew Hornbach: I think this issue would certainly be an interesting one for investors to think about, which is why I'm bringing it up with you. Because to the extent that the plan going forward is to hold a press conference only once a quarter, as you alluded to – investors may interpret that as the Fed not being willing to raise rates at every single meeting going forward, which would certainly affect the pricing in the very short end of the interest rate market. But more broadly, on communication strategy, do you think that that would be something that Chair Warsh would take upon himself? Or do you think it would be more likely for him to organize a committee to discuss communications? Michael Gapen: I think the right thing to do… Again, our job is to say what we think he will do – not what he should do. But I'm going to answer this one in the question of what I think he should do. I do think he should create, say, a subcommittee on communication and reevaluate what the Fed does. [Be]ause as chair, he has almost unilateral control over communications. But obviously you work within a committee, the committee operates with consensus. So, I do think it would make sense to, kind of, work through a committee and try and get as much consensus as you can. And, here, what I would hope where they, kind of, ultimately land is – Warsh has been critical in the past of the Fed's forecast, the forecast being incorrect, providing maybe incorrect forward guidance. And I would argue that it's not really the sole job of the SEPs – the Summary of Economic Projections – to provide a forecast. But what you get out of them is more than just a forecast. You get a hint of the committee's reaction function. That if data are above or below certain thresholds on growth, inflation, and unemplyment, then expect our policy path to look different. So, is there a way that he could review the communication strategy, tamp down the elements that are, say, a pure forecast, but keep the items that communicate to the market what a reaction function is? That's where I think a review committee could be useful in reforming or revamping what they do. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. In terms of the things that are really the purview of the committee, can you walk us through what those are in the context of Chair Warsh coming in having to ultimately make decisions on monetary policy – both interest rate policy as well as balance sheet policy? What are the purview of the committee itself? Michael Gapen: Yeah. The two main tools of monetary policy, in this case interest rate policy and balance sheet policy, is both of those are under the purview of the Federal Open Market Committee. So, to change interest rates, to reduce the size of the balance sheet, to change the rollover rate, to buy assets, to sell assets – all of that is an FOMC decision. There are subcomponents of that world where the board can make certain decisions. Now, the Fed views communication broadly as a tool, but in this case, communication is not an FOMC decision. The evolution of the communication strategy grew kind of organically out of '08, '09. Chairman Bernanke kind of started that process. It continued through, through Yellen. And that's been more of what I'll call a consensus operation, but there's no formal vote. So, the chair has a lot of control over how the Fed communicates, how often it communicates. But the policy decisions are from the FOMC. Matthew Hornbach: I'm often asked about this idea that less communication may end up affecting the bond market in certain ways. And typically, the concern amongst investors is that with less communication from the Fed – whether it be the chair or whether it be from the committee as a whole through the Summary of Economic Projections and its interest rate dot plot – there's concern amongst investors that removing that type of guidance would raise bond yields, essentially through the term premium component of the term structure. And the way that we think about it is probably in this environment where interest rates have already been inching higher, and investors are concerned about the hiking cycle that may eventuate, it probably would raise term premia initially. But from a more medium-term perspective, the way I think about it is that, you know, term premia can be positive, it can also be negative. And if we have less forward guidance, I would generally expect that term premium component to be more volatile than it has been in the past. Not necessarily just in the upward direction. But it could also be in the downward direction if the macro environment ends up changing in some way. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I could see in the current context, the inflation surprises have been to the upside, so less communication may mean more term premium. But we went through almost a decade after '08, '09, where most of those surprises were to the downside. So, you can imagine that it could be a symmetric story rather than an asymmetric one. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. Well, thanks Mike. That's very interesting, and thanks for taking the time to talk ahead of this upcoming FOMC meeting. I'm looking forward to our next discussion around the following FOMC meeting. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Nvidia just joined the likes of Amazon and Alphabet in selling off billions of dollars in bonds. What do these tech giants need help financing? Data centers, of course, to support the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure. For now, the cash is flowing, but when will these firms need to show some returns on those investments? Also in this episode: Commercial solar energy projects approach a deadline for federal tax credits, Fox enters the streaming wars by acquiring Roku, and Kai breaks down the history of post-FOMC press conferences.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Nuclear energy can lower one cost that has seen rapid inflation in recent years: electricity bills. But nuclear power plants aren't cheap to build. In one state, legislators wade into a debate over whether taxpayers or utility companies should shoulder the burden. Also in this episode: Kevin Warsh faces war-driven inflation ahead of his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair, MAHA movement drives up cotton demand, and advertisers leverage the World Cup to reach Latino consumers.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.