Podcasts about fomc

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Discord Channel: https://discord.gg/pqKsMKp6SA The latest FOMC meeting minutes are out — and they're hinting at more optimism for rate cuts this year. But what does that really mean for traders and investors? On today's show, we'll break it all down and look at how this could reshape the markets heading into year-end. We'll also tackle a viewer question on why crypto remains a valid market despite volatility, analyze the Magnificent 7's roaring comeback, and dig into the latest setups from my trading portfolio. If you want to understand how Fed policy shifts ripple across stocks, bonds, and crypto, this episode is for you. #TraderMerlin #RateCuts #FOMC #FederalReserve #Magnificent7 #Crypto #StockMarket #Investing #TradingPodcast #FinancialMarkets   Contact TraderMerlin: Email – TraderMerlin@gmail.com Follow TraderMerlin: Twitter: TraderMerlin - https://twitter.com/TraderMerlin IG: TraderMerlin - https://www.instagram.com/tradermerlin/ FB: TraderMerlin  - https://www.facebook.com/TraderMerlin Live Daily Show:  - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCczw6L9MSllTvWDK1fNlLrg Trading Applications used: -          Clik -          TradeStation -          Tradingview

Later this week, we'll learn more about how the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates when the Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes of its most recent meeting. The document will give us clues about what's ahead and where FOMC members' priorities lie. Also on this morning's show: the IRS will now have a CEO, renewable energy becomes the world's largest electricity source, and OPEC producers decide to expand output.

Later this week, we'll learn more about how the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates when the Federal Open Market Committee releases the minutes of its most recent meeting. The document will give us clues about what's ahead and where FOMC members' priorities lie. Also on this morning's show: the IRS will now have a CEO, renewable energy becomes the world's largest electricity source, and OPEC producers decide to expand output.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macro joined MSD today to provide his thoughts on why the last 25 bps cut by the FOMC under-shot the target to save small business, bank and the housing market. Barry also dives into some important data about the weakening labor market and historical data on capex buildout in the current economy.

週一天下零時差關注以下財經大事： 一、聯準會公布9月降息決策會議紀要，明年會降息幾碼？ 二、Semicon West為台積電移師鳳凰城，今年看點是什麼？ 三、財政部公布9月台灣出口額，美國對等關稅會有影響嗎？ 文：蔡娪嫣、伍芬婕 製作團隊：樂祈 ＊閱讀零時差，點這看全文

Bradenton Webinar Registration⁠ I'd iike to invite you to learn more about an exciting opportunity located in Bradenton Florida. Bradenton is next to Sarasota for those of you who are familiar with Florida. This market has an industrial moratorium that is driving one asset class to new heights, specifically light industrial. This 35 are property, right in the middle of Bradenton has an existing Charter School on 11 of those acres and 24 acres of land that we are developing.  We are hosting a webinar on Wednesday October 8 at 7PM Eastern time. This opportunity is only open to accredited investors residing in the US in compliance with SEC regulations. To learn more, click on the link in the show notes and we will see you on Wednesday evening at 7PM. -------------On today's show we are looking at the continuing signs of weakness in the US economy. Of course with the government shut down , there are no numbers coming out of the BEA, or the BLS. Today would have been the monthly jobs report which consists of two reports. There is the headline employment report, sometimes called the establishment survey and the household survey. The employment report made headlines in a significant way when the numbers for the past year were revised down ward by over 900,000 jobs. The financial markets have come to rely on these reports when it comes to bidding on interest rate futures. The theory is that if the economy is strong and employment is strong, then the Fed will put more emphasis on suppressing demand by raising the cost of capital. This is the so-called hawkish stance where fighting inflation takes centre stage. If the economy is weak and jobs are disappearing, then the Fed in theory should take a more stimulative approach to reduce the cost of capital and encourage hiring. This was the stance in the last FOMC meeting which resulted in a 0.25% rate cut. So we have no data coming out and the market doesn't really know what to do. But there is data coming from private sources that are well respected. Payroll processing company ADP produces are regular report based on the aggregated and anonymized payroll data of more than 26 million U.S. employees. This week's report showed that the US economy shed 32000 in the month of September. ADP gathers their data weekly.We can confidently predict another 0.25% rate cut at the next FOMC meeting at the end of October and then a further rate cut at the December meeting. For those of us in real estate, this is good news. It means those variable rate loans that are indexed to SOFR will see a reduction of 0.5% before the end of the year. ----------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Investors' exuberance is fueling this year's stock rally, but will key economic risks dampen the market's mood? The current bull run has lifted stocks from their springtime lows to higher levels in autumn. The artificial intelligence boom is one of the big factors driving it. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is dealing with the challenging situation of balancing the weakening job market and stubborn inflation. The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in the third quarter, but the path forward from here is less certain. Morningstar Inc Senior Markets Reporter Sarah Hansen discusses seven key market factors you should watch in Q4 2025.Nvidia's investment of up to $100 billion in ChatGPT creator OpenAI could shatter records. The big bet is helping feed two simple narratives about the AI era, according to Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe. First, there's too much investment in the technology, and booms tend to lead to busts. Second, AI has changed the rules of investing and returns. Kemp cautions investors to remember that there are a wide range of possible outcomes than these easy stories.  On this episode:You examine the highs and lows during each quarter and write about it. What do you think are the biggest takeaways from Q3? Stocks are climbing higher despite a lot of risks. What signals is the market ignoring, and could it be at its own peril? The AI boom is driving what's going on in the market. Mega-cap tech companies are making huge investments. Where's the money going, and how long is this level of spending expected to continue? The hot IPO market has benefited from AI. Some of the most successful IPOs this year involved the industry. Can you describe this revival? The first interest rate cut of 2025 is in the books. The Federal Reserve pointed to the softening job market as one reason for the move. What are strategists telling you as the markets await the Fed's next move? Inflation is still not tamed and hovering above the Fed's 2% target. There are expectations that tariffs could raise prices for a while. What are the outlooks from Morningstar and other strategists? As the Fed cuts rates, short-term yields will come down. What about the rest of the bond market? Where do people see the risks? The federal funding fight is continuing in Washington, D.C. Let's timestamp this moment. It's Tuesday, Sept. 30. The US government would shut down on Oct. 1 if there's not an agreement. How does uncertainty like this affect the markets, and what should investors think? Earnings season is coming up in a couple weeks. What is your team watching for? What's the takeaway for investors as we enter Q4?We talked on last week's Investing Insights about inflation. The Federal Reserve's preferred tracker showed inflation slightly ticked up in August as forecasters expected. It also revealed consumer spending rose. What do you think that's signaling about the US economy? In this week's Markets Brief column, you highlighted Nvidia's potentially record-breaking investment. The chipmaker announced it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. How should investors think about this deal?New economic data is due out this week. What are you tracking for next week's Markets Brief? Read about topics from this episode.  13 Charts on Q3's Tech-Driven Stock Rally Will the AI Boom in Semiconductor Stocks Continue? What Investors Need to Know About the Steepening Yield Curve The Fed's ‘Difficult Situation': Reading Between the Lines of the September Dot Plot Forecasts for August PCE Report Shows Some Cooling, but Tariff Impacts Persist What Investors Need to Know About a US Government Shutdown Markets Brief: Nvidia's AI Spending Spree Raises Boom and Bust Fears  What to watch from Morningstar. Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here's How to Spot Dividend Traps Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates?What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETFInvesting in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors Read what our team is writing.Sarah HansenDan KempIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Eric Criscuolo, Market Strategist at the NYSE, recaps a strong start to Q4 as tech and small caps led gains. A government shutdown delayed key data, but private reports showed labor market weakness. M&A activity surged, with major deals across sectors. Healthcare outperformed on Pfizer news, while energy and financials lagged. Criscuolo flags CPI, FOMC minutes, and OPEC's meeting as next week's key drivers.

Collin Martin from @CharlesSchwab says ADP employment is not enough to understand what's actually happening in the labor market. The lack of Friday's non-farm payrolls print adds to what he considers a foggy road ahead for a data-dependent Fed. Collin expects to see one more interest rate cut from the FOMC but says projections after that are up in the air. He tells investors to listen to Fed speakers and how they approach interest rates, noting that commentary from the source will offer more insight on the path forward.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The US dollar is marginally lower this week (-0.5%) with the economic data that was released this week confirming still weakening labour market conditions. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research Global Markets EMEA & International Securities talks to James Roulston Institutional FX Sales about the LDP leadership election taking place on Saturday and the implications for BoJ policy and the yen going forward. In addition Derek discusses with James the implications of the ongoing government shutdown running into the FOMC meeting later this month.

The U.S. government shutdown is here—but what does it mean for traders? In this episode, Akil Stokes explains what a shutdown is, why it happens, and how it impacts the markets. From the U.S. Dollar, Gold, and JPY to the upcoming FOMC decision, learn why this time might be different and what traders should watch for.Please leave me a rating & review if you haven't done so already.Your Trading Coach - Akil

The Fed faces a void of uncertainty without new economic data to determine interest rate cuts, says @CharlesSchwab's Cooper Howard. He says the FOMC will weigh Wednesday's ADP employment print and Thursday's challenger job cuts more heavily if it doesn't have Friday's jobs report to go off of. That said, Cooper sees bias tilting toward more rate cuts before the end of 2025.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Today's Charles Schwab Big Picture panel talks investors through what to brace for in an expected government shutdown at midnight. Mike Townsend says a shutdown period of seven to ten days will lead to substantial impact, pointing to destability in jobs and the stock market. He adds that bond markets have flashed signals of government dysfunction concerns. Nate Peterson doesn't expect the markets to see much of an impact, pointing to a strong, intact A.I. narrative.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Art Hogan says the government shutdown could be used by the government to remove Federal jobs it sees as superfluous. However, he adds that a shutdown means no economic data, creating near-term uncertainty for investors. As for the Fed, Art explains what it could mean for interest rate cuts as the FOMC appears to focus more on jobs data.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Rebecca Walser says there's "nothing in the data" from Friday's PCE suggesting that Fed Chair Jerome Powell needs to lean more dovish but adds that interest rate cuts are still on the table for the rest of the year. However, she highlights headwinds ahead for the FOMC as economic uncertainty persists. As for the A.I. narrative, Rebecca talks about how monetization is just starting to take shape and how investors need to stay alert to constant changes in the A.I. trade.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Cooper Howard with Charles Schwab says the latest round of economic data won't do anything to shift the FOMC's interest rate path. He says the recent prints show economic strength with pockets of weakness that warrant cuts. Joe Mazzola adds that "churn" markets are currently seeing are healthy for long-term outlook. He also notes what he considers "speculative" utilities plays like nuclear power companies and talks about his warning to investors.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Today we had the exciting opportunity to host Thomas Popik for a power-focused discussion. Thomas is the Chairman and President of the Foundation for Resilient Societies, a non-profit dedicated to strengthening the resilience and recoverability of critical infrastructure. In addition to his volunteer leadership at the Foundation, Thomas serves as a Principal at Geosegment Systems Corporation. He holds an MBA from Harvard and a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from MIT. The Foundation for Resilient Societies is distinguished by the depth of its scientific, economic, and legal expertise. Several of its directors have held senior policymaking positions in the U.S. Government and now continue their societal contributions through private action. The Foundation has been instrumental in advancing policies and recommendations to better protect the electrical grid and other vital systems from emerging threats. We were thrilled to host Thomas. In our conversation, Thomas outlines the mission of the Foundation and how its nonprofit status strengthens credibility, recruitment, and advocacy. He highlights the rising frequency of outage “near misses” that the public is largely unaware of, the Foundation's engagement with FERC, NERC, and DOE, and how this work has helped shift official recognition of risks, including DOE's recent warning of up to 800 blackout hours per year by 2030. Thomas traces how we arrived at this level of instability, with factors including a net loss of ~1% per year in dispatchable capacity over the past decade, the retirements of coal, older gas, and petroleum-fired plants, and their replacement with wind and solar, which lack dispatchability. He shares market history, from the pre-2000 overbuild that drove up rates, through the 2010s when flat load growth masked declining capacity, to 2024, with excess capacity gone and the grid maxed out. Thomas outlines near-term solutions for grid stability, including halting premature retirements of dispatchable generation, enabling the use of backup generators at critical infrastructure, and improving legal and regulatory mechanisms to prevent retirements and declare emergencies. On the consumer side, we discuss tools such as dynamic pricing to discourage peak-time consumption, shifting habits like EV charging, and aggregating flexible load reductions from schools, homes, and businesses. Thomas also highlights the importance of public messaging to encourage rapid conservation during emergencies and notes longer-term measures including building new dispatchable generation. As mentioned, the DOE Resource Adequacy Report published in July is linked here. We learned a lot from our conversation with Thomas and greatly appreciate him joining us. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that markets seemed to be in “no man's land.” On the bond market front, the 10-year bond yield has risen over the last week, despite the Fed following through with a 25 basis-point interest rate cut and signaling the potential for two more cuts this year. Looking ahead, employment reports, rather than inflation reports, are likely going to be the Fed's main focus. On the broader market front, the S&P 500 continues to hit all-time highs but is beginning to feel like it's in no man's land given that the FOMC meeting is in the rearview mirror and Q3 earnings reports are not on tap for several more weeks. On the crude oil market front, WTI price continues to trade in the low to mid $60s/bbl due to the give/take of Russian oil sanctions/energy infrastructure damage versus concerns of a 2026 global oil surplus keeping a ceiling on oil prices. On the electricity/energy equity front, he highlighted Landbridge Company's strategic partnership with NRG Energy on a potential data center in the Delaware Basin and noted that Governor Shapiro of Pennsylvania warned this

Alex Barron believes the homebuilder industry will continue to struggle for the coming months. He sees slower than expected demand sticking to the sector even after the FOMC's interest rate cut earlier in September. Tom White offers an example options trade in KB Home (KBH) ahead of its after hours report, and another for Lennar (LEN).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

US equities were lower in Tuesday trading as stocks ended a bit off worst levels. Big story today was reversal from Monday's price action, as AI and Big Tech leading to the downside. Fed Chair Powell largely echoed his comments from last week's FOMC meeting.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak for the first time since the FOMC lowered interest rates last week. Kevin Hincks says it's not just the chair you should listen to. He points to commentary from other Fed governors signaling mixed opinions on how deep the FOMC should cut rates into 2026. Friday's PCE print will add more color to the inflation picture, as Kevin previews expectations for the print.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon believes the stock market has become increasingly important in acting as a barometer for the U.S. economy. He goes in-depth on how changing wealth demographics play a role in the sentiment shift. On the Fed, Kevin says "hawkish" governors should capture more attention when it comes to rate cut commentary and why they argue for trimmed expectations.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Our CIO Mike Wilson joins U.S. Equity strategist Andrew Pauker to answer frequently asked questions about their latest economic outlook, including how U.S. equities are transitioning to a new bull market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today we're going to try something a little different. I have my colleague, Andrew Pauker from the U.S. Equity Strategy Team here to discuss some of the client questions and feedback to our views. It's Monday, September 22nd at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Andrew, we constantly deal with client questions on our views. More recently, the questions have been focused on our view that we've transitioned from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery in a new bull market. Secondarily, it's about the tension between the equity market's need for speed and how fast the Fed will actually cut rates. Finally, why is accelerating inflation potentially good for equities? Where do you want to start? Andrew Pauker: Mike, in my conversations with clients, the main debate seems to be around whether the labor cycle and earnings recession are behind us or in front of us. Walk us through our take here and why we think the rolling recession ended with Liberation Day and that we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. Mike Wilson: So, just to kind of level set, you know, we've had this view that – and starting in 2022 with the payback and the COVID demand. And from the pull forward – that began, what we call, a rolling recession. It started with the technology sector and consumer goods, where the demand was most extreme during the lockdowns. And then of course we've had recessions in housing, manufacturing, and other areas in commodities. Transportation. It's been very anemic growth, if any growth at all, as the economy has been sort of languishing. And what's been strong has been AI CapEx, consumer services, and government. And what we noticed in the first quarter, and we actually called for this almost a year ago. We said now what we need is a government recession as part of the finishing move. And in fact, Doge was the catalyst for that. We highlighted that back in January, but we didn't know exactly how many jobs were lost from Doge's efforts in the first quarter. But we got that data recently. And we saw an extreme spike, and it actually sort of finished the rolling recession. Even AI CapEx had a deceleration starting in the summer of 2024. Something else that we've been highlighting and now we're seeing pockets of weakness even in consumer services. So, we feel like the rolling recession has rolled through effectively the entire economy. In addition to the labor data that now is confirming – that we've had a pretty extreme reduction in jobs, and of course the revisions are furthering that. But what we saw in the private sector is also confirming our suspicions that the rolling recession's over. The number one being earnings revision breath, something we've written about extensively. And we've rarely seen this kind of a V-shaped recovery coming out of Liberation Day, which of course was the final blow to the earnings revisions lower because that made companies very negative and that fed through to earnings revisions. The other things that have happened, of course, is that Doge, you know, did not continue laying people off. And also, we saw the weaker dollar and the AI CapEx cycle bottom in April. And those have also affected kind of a more positive backdrop for earnings growth. And like I said before, this is a very rare occurrence to see this kind of a V-shape recovery and earnings revision breaths. The private economy, in fact, is finally coming out of its earnings recession, which has been in now for three years. Andrew Pauker: And I would just add a couple of other variables as well in terms of evidence that we're seeing the rolling recovery take hold, and that Liberation Day was kind of the punctuation or the culmination of the rolling recession, and we're now transitioning to an early cycle backdrop. So, number one, positive operating leverage is causing our earnings models to inflect sharply higher here. Median stock EPS growth, which had been negative for a lot of the 2022 to 2024 period is now actually turning positive. It's currently positive 6 percent now. The rolling correlation between equity returns and inflation break evens is also now significantly positive. That's classic early cycle. That's something we saw, you know, post COVID, post GFC And then lastly, just in terms of the market internals and kind of what, you know, under the surface, the equity market is telling us. So, the cyclical defensive ratio was down about 50 percent into the April lows. That's now up 50 percent from Liberation Day and is kind of breaking the downtrend that began in April of 2024. So, in addition to the earnings revisions V-shaped recovery that you mentioned, Mike. Those are a couple of other variables as well that are confirming that we're moving towards an early cycle backdrop and that the ruling recovery is commencing. Okay. So, we had the FOMC meeting. As expected the Fed delivered a 25 basis point cut. Mike, what's your read on the meeting as it relates to equities and the reaction function? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean this is really what we expected along with the consensus. We didn't have a different view that the Fed would give us 50. They gave us 25, and some people have characterized this as sort of a hawkish cut and very different than what we saw a year ago when the Fed kicked off that part of the rate cutting cycle with 50 basis points because they probably were worried a bit more about the labor market than they were about inflation. But you know, ultimately we think the labor data is going to get worse or the payroll data will prove to be worse because of the delay between the Doge layoffs and when those folks can file for unemployment insurance, which should be in October. And it's that delayed data that will then get the Fed cutting in earnest, which is what's necessary for the full rotation to kind of the lower quality parts of the market. So, while you're right that we've seen cyclicals perform, they haven't performed in the same way that we've seen prior cycles, like in 2020 or [20]08-[20]09, because the Fed hasn't cut. They're very far behind the curve. If you buy into our thesis that, you know, we had a rolling recession, we had an employment cycle, and they should be much more generous here. So that tension between the Fed's delay to get ahead of the curve and the market's need for speed to get there sooner and more deliberately – is where we think that, you know, we have to wait for that to occur to get the full rotation to the lower quality, kind of really cyclical parts of the market. Andrew Pauker: Okay, so let's talk about the back end of the yield curve a little bit and why that's important for stocks. In my dialogue with investors, there's a lot of focus here, just given what happened last fall when the Fed cut at the front end and the back end of the yield curve move higher. How should market participants think about this dynamic? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, I think this is an unknown known, if you will, because we saw this last fall. Where the Fed cut 100 basis points and the back end of the 10-year and 30-year Treasury market sold off. That's the first time we've ever seen that in history, where the Fed cuts that aggressively and the backend moves out. And this is a function of just all the fiscal imbalances and the debt issues that we face. And this is not a new issue. So, I think it remains to be seen if the bond market is going to be comfortable with the Fed not ignoring the 2 percent target – but you know, letting it run hot. As we've said, we think ultimately, they will have to let it run hot and they will, because that's what we need to have a chance at getting out of the debt problem. And so that sort of risk is still out in the future. I have less concern about that more recently because of the way the backend of the bond market has traded. But it's something that we need to keep in the back of our mind. If yields were to go back to 4.50, which is our key level, then that would be a problem as long as we're below, you know, sort of 4.50 and we're well below that now we're close to 4, I don't think this is a problem at all. Andrew Pauker: Yeah. One of the points that our colleague in rate strategy Matt Hornbach has highlighted is that the difference between now and the fourth quarter of last year when we saw that dynamic play out was that, you know, the bond market was very focused on the uncertainty around the fiscal situation. You know, we were going into an election, there was a fair amount of uncertainty around what Trump would do from a fiscal standpoint.And now, that is a known known, you know. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill signed into law. We know what the deficit impact is, so there is more clarity for the bond market on that front. So that is one key difference now versus last fall and why we may not see the same kind of reaction in the rates market. Mike, you brought up, kind of, run it hot, which was the title of our note from a couple of weeks ago. I just wanted to get your take on why some inflation coming back is actually a positive for equities and why actually the deceleration that we've seen in inflation over the last couple years is one reason why earnings for small cap indices, for instance, have deteriorated so much. And so, for in this environment where the Fed is perhaps a bit more tolerant of inflation in 2026, why that's actually a positive for equities. Mike Wilson: This is just an underappreciated sort of factoid that we actually identified back in 2020 and [20]21 as well. That when inflation is accelerating, that's a sign that pricing power is pretty good. And we actually see broader earnings. In fact, the best year for earnings, not just small caps, but the – call it the equal weighted S&P 500 was 2021. And that was the year where obviously inflation was really getting out of control. That was just pure profit for a lot of these businesses. And so – earnings will be better. Our call over the next 12 months is not about multiples or the Fed so much, but that we think earnings are going to end up being better than people expect because (a) we've been through this three-year earnings recession. There's a ton of pent-up demand. Okay? And now inflation is reaccelerating as demand comes back. And that is actually going to fall to the bottom line. So not only is that good for stocks, okay, but it's actually, it's also why the equity risk premium can be lower. Because if you want to hedge that risk of inflation moving higher, well then you should be willing to accept a lower equity risk premium relative to what is actually a pretty good base rate for 10-year yields, close to 2 percent on a real basis. So, you know, that's why the equity risk premium can stay low and why stocks can accrue at a, you know, pretty high PE multiple as these earnings come through better than expected. And one of the reasons is that inflation actually is accelerating in some of these areas where it's been deflationary. Andrew Pauker: Lastly, Mike, you know, you brought this up briefly. I want to address rotations under the surface of the market. We took off our large cap buys a few weeks ago, and as you mentioned, kind of signaled our intention – to get more constructive on small caps later this year in the fourth quarter. Can you specifically kind of walk through the signpost that we're waiting for before pressing the long, small cap trade here? Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, we've probably… This is probably one of the areas we've done a really good job of just, you know, staying away from the fray. Meaning that, you know, we've been underweight small caps for really four years, and they've underperformed that entire time. I think the thing that we've been really patient about is just waiting for the Fed to lower rates to a level that's more conducive for these businesses that (a) need to obviously recap themselves, but then the cost of capital is just too high. So that's number one. But , at the end of the day, I mean, that should translate into better earnings revisions and that also has lagged. So, it's a combination of the two. The Fed getting ahead of the curve, which I would define as fed funds at least equal to two-year Treasury yields, but hopefully below two-year Treasury yields. Right now, we're about 60-65 basis points still above two-year yields . And then the second one is this ‘earnings your vision breadth on a relative basis. Small over large. It is trying to turn up now. It's been in a straight downtrend really for the last, you know, four years. And so those two together will affect a more robust relative outperformance. And just to be clear, small caps have done really well since Liberation Day, okay. So, in absolute terms, it's been great. It's just the relative trade has not really worked yet. That's where we're going to leave this conversation. Thanks for speaking with me, Andrew, to explain some of the thinking behind our calls. To our listeners, thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful, and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. If you think Thoughts on the Market is worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber discussed the latest on the Fed front - amid a slew of speaking engagements from FOMC members today and this week... and a divergence grows between market expectations and Fed targets. Interactive Brokers' Chief Strategist Steve Sosnick and market veteran Rebecca Patterson joined the team with their volatility playbooks - before the team took a look at one beaten down sector that could be worth buying here.  Also in focus: has the AI trade peaked? Hear a fresh read on demand from the CEO of CoreWeave - fresh off a $6B deal with Nvidia... And more on what to do with Oracle shares, as Safra Catz moves from CEO to Executive Chair - and the company names 2 new CEOs. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This episode centers on navigating markets at all-time highs after last week's FOMC head-fake. We discuss how to balance staying long with reducing risk, trimming SPX put-credit spreads, and the trade-offs of skipping entries during volatile weeks.Brian joins to walk through his weekend watchlist and three core income strategies: in-the-money covered calls, poor man's covered calls (diagonals), and broken-wing butterflies—including how he manages risk, targets returns, and selects trades. We also cover SPY covered calls vs. selling puts, an update on Intel's surprise breakout, and practical ways to use mechanical strategies like Alpha Crunching's Thursday PCS setup.Symbols mentioned: SPX, SPY, ETSY, BABA, RKLB, INTC.

Today, we look at the still narrow US equity market managing to post new all-time highs, while the broader market is mixed. Some signs of froth are forming in this market as some of the most speculative stocks, including quantum computing names and one we profile that is really not much more than a bunch of promises at this point, are ramping exponentially on the latest news flow, even when earnings are years away. We also look at the follow-on reaction to the FOMC and Bank of Japan meetings, what to watch this week and more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Jason drops by the studio to reflect on last week's FOMC rate decision and market response. We then discuss expectations for rate cuts through the balance of the year, and into 2026. Plus, how and why the Fed funds rate will matter to markets from here, along with a review of CIO's latest asset allocation recommendations. Featured is Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In the wake of the FOMC decision to cut interest rates by 25bps, Nicole Petallides interviews two market minds with their takeaways from the central bank's decision. First, Dan Niles provides his macro commentary before turning his trading attention to the state of the A.I. trade. Then, former Fed official Danielle DiMartino Booth makes the case for a 50bps cut coming in October. Don't miss this hour-long edition of Market Overtime on Schwab Network.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Right now nearly every asset class in rising in price simultaneously.And many indices and individual securities are hitting all-time highs.Investors are getting increasingly confident -- which explains the ongoing melt-up.How long will it last?And when it reverses, will it do so gently? Or violently?The longer the current momentum continues at this pace, the more likely the reckoning is sooner and more painful.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss why, as well as the latest technical analysis, this week's FOMC release, gold, AI, social media, the just-announced TikTok deal, the housing market and Lance's firm's latest trades.For everything that mattered to markets this week, watch this video.LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD PRICE DISCOUNT FOR THE THOUGHTFUL MONEY FALL CONFERENCE AT https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference#interestrates #marketcorrection #bullmarket 0:00 - Market Heat: High Correlation Across Asset Classes (Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin)2:48 - Why This Rally Isn't "Broken" Yet – Investment Committee Insights3:35 - Train Analogy: Momentum Hard to Stop Despite Slowing Economy4:36 - Earnings as Key Driver: Bull Case vs. Risk of Reversal7:16 - Broad Momentum: Accumulator Model +8%, All-Weather +6%, AI +9%8:14 - Outlook: Exuberance Leads to 5-10% Correction, But Hard to Time10:11 - Tax Cuts Minor; Deregulation & AI Could Drive Growth (Nvidia-Intel Stake)13:31 - Historical Parallels: 1998-99, 2021 Euphoria Ends in Corrections14:46 - Q4 Tailwinds: Earnings Beats, Buybacks +50% YoY, Manager Chasing16:42 - Bias Upward Through Year-End, But 3-5% Pullback Possible18:53 - Google Parabolic: 3-4 Std Dev Above Moving Averages19:35 - Standard Deviations Explained: 99% Odds of Correction24:18 - Gold Also Parabolic: Take Profits, Hedge Positions27:02 - Google AI Threat: Search Monopoly at Risk from Ad Revenue Loss37:47 - Mark Newton Outlook: Momentum to Oct/Nov, Then Correction into 202644:14 - Dot Plot: 4 More Cuts into 2026; Projections Show Slow Growth (1.8%)48:45 - TikTok Deal: Missed Chance to Curb Societal Harm from Social Media59:27 - Housing Cracks: Inventory Up in Midwest/Northeast (Boston +11%)1:04:54 - Idea: Incentive Kids to Live Nearby – Free House After Raising Family1:18:03 - Trades: Position Swaps Next Week – Max 30 Stocks for Outperformance1:20:21 - Rant: Lance's Wife Post-Chemo – Back to Work, Hilarious Wig Story1:26:40 - YouTube Wins: Nutritious, Authentic Content on Demand1:31:16 - Hater Drama: Troll Picks Fights for Visibility – Followers Defend_____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

Send us a textThe day after the FOMC's first rate cut of 2025, we sat down with Matt Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley, to unpack what the decision really meant, and what the markets maybe got wrong on first read. Matt talks about the shifting dissenters, how updates to the Summary of Economic Projections present a more complicated picture for the future path of rate cuts, and why Powell's tone at the presser felt at odds with the statement itself.We also dig into the Fed's often-misunderstood, rarely referenced “third mandate” (moderate long-term rates), the limits of yield curve “engineering,” and the crucial point that U.S. mortgage rates don't simply follow 30-year Treasury yields. We dive into Matt's favored yield-curve steepener, going into the details of preferred expressions optimized for minimal cost of carry. Beyond rates, he explains why he expects further USD depreciation and gives us a rates-based framework to understand what sometimes feels like puzzling strength in the equities market. This episode is also our “Fixed Income Strategy 101” primer, where we cover: what macro/fixed-income strategy teams actually do, how they partner with sales & trading and clients, the difference between research/strategy/desk strategy, the top skills hiring managers look for (hint: learn Python), and common exit paths. Matthew Hornbach is a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley, Global Head of Macro Strategy, and one of nine members of the Global Investment Committee for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. With support from his team, Matthew received the most individual or firm votes in the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Institutional Investor Global Fixed-Income Research poll across all analysts across all Economics & Strategy categories.Matthew began his career at Morgan Stanley in June 2000. He joined as a Japanese Government Bond (JGB) trader in Tokyo, then became a yen interest rate strategist. Matthew moved to New York in 2004 to make markets in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). He returned to Tokyo in 2006 to develop the US Agency MBS Pass-throughs business in Asia. In 2012, Matthew returned to New York as Head of U.S. Rates Strategy and became the Global Head of Rates Strategy shortly thereafter. Just prior to his 20th year at Morgan Stanley, he became Global Head of Macro Strategy. He oversees teams of developed and emerging market rates and FX strategists in New York, London, Tokyo, and Hong Kong.Matthew holds a BA degree in economics from Vassar College and a Certificate of ManaFor a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HERE For 20% off Deleteme, use the code TWSS or click the link HERE! Sign up for our LIVE Virtual Bootcamps! 2-Day Financial Modeling Bootcamp Master the technical Excel and accounting skills essential for investment banking, private equity, and fundamental investing. (Learn more HERE) Global Markets & Investing PlaybookA one-day crash course on the financial ecosystem, perfect for anyone seeking a big-picture understanding of how global markets and Wall Street fit together. Our content is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. (Learn more HERE)

全市場萬眾矚目的 9 月 FOMC 會議終於來臨，聯準會也給出了符合市場預期、降息 1 碼的答案，至此降息循趨勢已確認，聯準會主席鮑威爾到底說了什麼呢？ 本集邀請研究副總監 Ryan 來聊聊，此次聲明稿與上次有何不同？點陣圖從上次的藏有玄機，到這次大致底定，委員意願如何移動？SEP 是如何看待現在美國的經濟、就業、通膨？

In this episode of the Schiff Gold Friday Market Wrap, Peter Schiff reviews a week of significant volatility in the precious metals markets. Key highlights include the FOMC meeting, quadruple witching day, and impressive gains in gold and silver. Gold rose by 1.1%, closing near $3,685, while silver surged 2.8% in a single day, ending the week 1.8% higher. Gold and silver mining stocks outperformed, with the GDX and GDXJ indices achieving remarkable gains. Schiff discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on gold and other markets, emphasizing the bullish outlook for precious metals. He also covers notable financial developments, such as Morgan Stanley's updated 60/40 portfolio to include gold, signaling a potential shift away from US Treasuries. Schiff encourages viewers to invest in gold and silver now, ahead of further market movements, and highlights the long-term bullish prospects for precious metals and mining stocks. Subscribe for more insights and recommendations.

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas.Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links:    Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/   Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Timestamps:0:00 Welcome and introduction - Chris Whalen's first in-studio appearance0:24 Julia's introduction highlighting Chris's credentials and analysis1:16 Fed takeaway - Steve Miran only governor wanting 50bp cut2:19 Housing emergency coming - Fed drove prices up, Trump faces constraint2:31 Housing scenarios - mortgage rates retreating after quarter point4:17 Monetary Metals ad read5:34 Housing psychology - homeowners trying to sell at the top6:53 Office space comparison - no longer premium asset class7:38 Fed rate cut outlook - may not see more cuts for months9:58 Bank balance sheet problems - mortgage securities underwater10:54 Politics of inflation - housing affordability crisis13:10 Viewer housing question response - Florida 1924 parallels15:32 DC trip on GSEs - still no roadmap from Treasury18:43 Fannie/Freddie trade - made 30% then got out19:54 Taking profits22:36 Watching the herd mentality25:20 Dollar/deficit thesis - weaker dollar, Treasury pressure ahead27:47 Fed restructuring vision - eliminate Board of Governors31:09 Housing emergency declaration - resuming MBS purchases discussion33:51 Mixed economy - wealthy vs bottom quartile struggling34:34 Debt myths - Americans love inflation, debt is currency36:18 Highest conviction trade - gold and strategic silver

As Apple's iPhone 17 goes on sale globally, CEO Tim Cook joins Jim Cramer in Apple's 5th Avenue store for a conversation about global sales and the tech giant's newest devices. President Trump and Chinese President Xi discuss the future of TikTok on a call today; former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Chris Krebs discusses the potential deal on the table–and the parameters of the law. After the Fed's rate cut, FOMC member and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari discusses the meeting, his newest colleagues, and the state of the economy with Steve Liesman.  Plus, Andrew Ross Sorkin and Joe Kernen unpack the fallout from ABC's suspension of Jimmy Kimmel's show.  Tim Cook & Jim Cramer - 13:13Neel Kashkari - 22:31Chris Krebs - 39:04 In this episode:Tim Cook, @tim_cookNeel Kashkari, @neelkashkariChris Krebs, @C_C_KrebsJim Cramer, @jimcramerSteve Liesman, @steveliesmanJoe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkinKatie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

On Wednesday, the Fed announced its first rate cut in nine months. While the reduction was widely expected, our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen explain the data that markets and the Fed are watching.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Our topic today is the Fed's first quarter percent rate cut in 2025. We're here to discuss the implications and the path forward. It's Thursday, September 18th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, the Fed concluded its meeting on Wednesday. What was the high-level takeaway from your perspective?Michael Gapen: So, I think there's two main points here. There's certainly more that we can discuss, but two main takeaways for me are obviously the Fed is moving because it sees downside risk in the labor market.So, the August employment data revealed that the hiring rate took a large step down and stayed down, right. And the Fed is saying – it's a curious balance in the labor market. We're not quite sure how to assess it, but when employment growth slows this much, we think we need to take notice.So, they're adjusting their view. We'll call it risk management 'cause that's what Powell said. And saying there's more risk of worse outcomes in the labor market, keeping a restricted policy stance is inappropriate, we should cut. So that's part one. I think he previewed all of that in Jackson Hole. So, it was largely the same, but it's important to know why the Fed's cutting. The second thing that was interesting to me is as much as he, Powell in this case, tried to avoid the idea that we're on a preset path. That, you know, policy is always data dependent and it's always the meeting-to-meeting decision – we know that. But it does feel like if you're recalibrating your policy stance because you see more downside risk to the labor market, they're not prepared to just do once and go, ‘Well, maybe; maybe we'll go again; maybe we won't.' The dot plots clearly indicate a series of moves here. And when pressed on, well, what's a 25 basis point rate cut going to do to help the labor market, Powell responded by, well, nothing. 25 basis points won't really affect the macro outcome, but it's the path that that matters. So, I do think; and I use the word recalibration; Powell didn't want to use that. I do think we're in for a series of cuts here. The median dot would say three, but maybe two; two to three, 75 basis points by year end. And then we'll see how the world evolves. Matthew Hornbach: So, speaking of the summary of economic projections, what struck you as being interesting about the set of projections that we got on Wednesday? And how does the Fed's idea of the path into 2026 differ from yours?Michael Gapen: Yeah. Well, it was a lot about downside risk to the labor market. But what did they do? They revised up growth. They have the unemployment rate path lower in the outer years of their forecast than they did before, so they didn't revise down this year. But they revised down subsequent years, and they revised inflation higher in 2026. That may seem at odds with what they're doing with the policy rate currently.But my interpretation of that is, you know, the main point to your question is – they're more tolerant of inflation as the cost or the byproduct of needing to lower rates to support the labor market. So, if this all works, the outlook is a little stronger from the Fed's perspective. And so, what's key to me is that they are… You know, the median of the forecast, to the extent that they align in a coherent message, are saying, we're going to have to pay a price for this in the form of stronger inflation next year to support the labor market this year. So that means in their forecast – cuts this year, but fewer cuts in 2026 and [20]27. And how that differs from our forecast is we're not quite as optimistic on the Fed, as the Fed is on the economy. We do think the labor market weakens a little bit further into 2026. So, you get four consecutive rate cuts upfront, again, inclusive of the one we got on Wednesday. And then you get two additional cuts by the middle of 2026. So, we're not quite as optimistic. We think the labor market's a little softer. And we think the Fed will have to get closer to neutral, right? Powell said we're moving “in the direction of neutral.” So, he's not committing to go all the way to neutral. And we're just saying we think the Fed ultimately will have to do that, although they're not prepared to communicate that now.Matthew Hornbach: One of the things that struck me as interesting about the summary of economic projections was the unemployment rate projection for the end of this year. So, the way that the Fed delivers these projections is they give you a number on the unemployment rate that represents the average unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the specified year. And in this case, the median FOMC participant is projecting that the unemployment rate will average 4.5 percent. And that's what we're forecasting as well, I believe. And so, what struck me as interesting is that with an average unemployment rate of 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter of the year, which is up about 0.2 percent from today's unemployment rate of 4.3 – the Fed is only projecting one additional rate cut in 2026. And I'm curious, do you think that if we in fact get to the end of this year, and it looks like the unemployment rate has averaged about 4.5 percent – do you expect the Fed to continue to forecast only one rate cut in 2026?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think that's… Um. The short answer is no. I think that's a challenging position to be in. And by that, I mean, in addition to that unemployment rate forecast where it's 4.5 percent for the average of the fourth quarter, which could mean December's as high as 4.6; we don't know what their monthly forecast is.But that would mean the unemployment rate's risen about a half a percentage point from its lows a few months ago. And they have inflation rising to 3 percent. Core PCE is already 2.9. So, inflation is about where it is today; [it's] a touch firmer. But the unemployment rate has moved higher. And so, what I would say is they haven't seen a lot of evidence by December that inflation's coming back down, and the labor market has stabilized.So, this is why we think they will be more likely to get to a neutral-ish or something closer to neutral in 2026 than they're prepared to communicate now. So, I think that's a good point. So, Matt, if I could turn it back to you, I would just like first to ask you about the general market reaction. The 25 basis point cut was universally expected. So really all the potentially new news was then about the forward path from here. So how did markets reply to this? Yields did initially sell off a bit, but they generally came back. What's your assessment of how the market took the decision?Matthew Hornbach: Yeah, so the initial five, 10 minutes after the statement and summary of economic projections is released, everybody's digesting all of the new information. And generally speaking, investors tend to see what they want to see initially in all of the materials. So initially we had yields coming down a bit, the yield curve steepened a bit. But then about half an hour later, it became clear – just right before the press conference had started; it became clear to people that actually this delivery in the documentation was a bit more moderate in terms of the forward look. That it was a fairly balanced assessment of where things are and where things may be heading.And that in the end, the Fed, while it does want to bring interest rates lower, at least in the modal case, that it is still not particularly concerned about downside risks to activity, I should say, than it is concerned about upside risks to inflation. It very much seems a balanced assessment of the risks. And I think as a result, the market balanced out its initial euphoria about lower rates with a moderation of that view. So, interest rates ended up moving slightly higher towards the end of the day. But then, the next day they came back a bit. So, I think, it was a bit more of a steady as they go assessment from markets in the end.Michael Gapen: And do you see markets as maybe changing their views on whether you know, it is a recalibration in the stance, therefore we should expect consecutive cuts? Or is the market now thinking, ‘Hey, maybe it is meeting by meeting.' And what about the Fed's forecast of its terminal rate versus the market's forecast of the terminal rate. So, what happened there?Matthew Hornbach: Indeed. Yeah. So, in terms of how market prices are incorporating the idea that the Fed may cut at consecutive meetings through the end of the year, I think markets are generally priced for an outcome about in line with that idea. But of course, markets, and investors who trade markets, have to take into consideration the upcoming dataset and with the Fed so data dependent; so, meeting by meeting in terms of their decisions – it could certainly be the case that the next employment report and/or the next inflation report could dissuade the committee from lowering rates again, at the end of October when the Fed next meets. So, I think the markets are, as you can expect, not going to fully price in everything that the Fed is suggesting. Both because the Fed may not end up delivering what it is suggesting; it might, or it may deliver more. So, the markets are clearly going to be data dependent as well. In terms of how the market is pricing the trough policy rate for the Fed – it does expect that the Fed will take its policy rate below where the summary of economic projections is suggesting. But that market pricing is more representative I think of a risk premium to the expectations of investors, which generally are in line or end up moving in line with the summary of economic projections over time. So, given that the Fed has changed the economic projections and the forecast for policy rates, investors probably also end up shifting a bit in terms of their own expectations. So, with that, Mike, I will bid you adieu until we speak again next time – around the time of the October FOMC meeting. So, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt,Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

What a massive mess. No clear direction. Dots all over he place. And that's just the start. We've got Canada, too. Replay of FOMC decision livestream as Pringles win again.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11–1 to cut interest rates by 0.25% to 4%–4.25%, their first rate cut in nine months. The central bank's policymakers cited the weakening labor market as the basis for the cut but noted that they are still concerned about potential inflation. However, the committee signaled that they are likely to approve two more rate cuts this year. Ad-free podcasts are here!To listen to this podcast ad-free, and to enjoy our subscriber only premium content, go to ReadTangle.com to sign up!You can read today's podcast⁠ ⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠, our “Under the Radar” story ⁠here and today's “Have a nice day” story ⁠here⁠.Take the survey: How many more times do you think the FOMC should cut interest rates this year? Let us know.Disagree? That's okay. My opinion is just one of many. Write in and let us know why, and we'll consider publishing your feedback.You can subscribe to Tangle by clicking here or drop something in our tip jar by clicking here. Our Executive Editor and Founder is Isaac Saul. Our Executive Producer is Jon Lall.This podcast was written by Ari Weitzman and edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet 75.Our newsletter is edited by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman, Senior Editor Will Kaback, Lindsey Knuth, Kendall White, Bailey Saul, and Audrey Moorehead. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Learn how the Fed rate cut impacts loans and savings, then find out when to freeze your credit and how to do it fast. What does a Federal Reserve rate cut mean for your wallet? Should you freeze your credit if an internet provider runs a soft pull? Hosts Sean Pyles and Elizabeth Ayoola kick off this episode with senior news writer Anna Helhoski to unpack the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) new federal funds rate target range and how it filters through to credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, and high-yield savings accounts and CDs. They explain why Fed chair Jerome Powell framed this as a “risk-management cut,” what dissent within the committee signals, how a cooling labor market and sticky inflation shape the outlook for additional cuts, and what stock market moves might follow. Plus, what all of that means for your near-term borrowing and saving decisions. Then, NerdWallet's Amanda Barroso joins Sean and Elizabeth for a practical lesson in credit freeze 101. They start with when and why to freeze your credit, with tips on freezing at all three bureaus, using apps for fast thawing, and setting time-boxed thaws before major credit applications. They also discuss soft vs. hard inquiries, fraud alerts vs. credit freezes vs. credit locks, and common pitfalls (forgetting one bureau, thawing too late at the car dealership, weak passwords) to help you understand when to keep your reports “frozen like Elsa,” but still move fast when you need new credit. Fed Trims Rate: What Does It Mean For You? https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/fed-rate-cut-sept-2025  How to Unfreeze Your Credit With Equifax, Experian and TransUnion https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/how-to-unfreeze-your-credit  Want us to review your budget? Fill out this form — completely anonymously if you want — and we might feature your budget in a future segment! https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScK53yAufsc4v5UpghhVfxtk2MoyooHzlSIRBnRxUPl3hKBig/viewform?usp=header In their conversation, the Nerds discuss: credit card APR, mortgage refinance rates, savings account interest rates, certificate of deposit rates, stock market after Fed decision, inflation forecast, unemployment trends, federal funds rate explained, Trump pressure on Fed, dissent at FOMC, labor market cooling, tariffs and inflation, soft credit check vs hard credit check, how to unfreeze credit, thaw credit timeline, fraud alert vs credit freeze, credit lock vs credit freeze, identity theft protection steps, FTC identity theft reports, data breach protection, certified mail credit freeze, password manager for credit bureaus, how to freeze credit by phone, and credit freeze pitfalls. To send the Nerds your money questions, call or text the Nerd hotline at 901-730-6373 or email podcast@nerdwallet.com. Like what you hear? Please leave us a review and tell a friend. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Fed delivered a dovish message this week, but markets didn't buy it. In this episode, I break down the latest FOMC rate decision, the dot plot projections, and why traders saw massive whipsaw moves in the USD and stocks. Perfect for traders following interest rates, Fed policy, and market fundamentals.Please remember to FOLLOW the show!Your Trading Coach - Akil

The market was desperate for FOMC takeaways, but alas, despite interesting details, the overall picture was one that mostly validated the existing lay of the land, resulting in some choppy market action but no big changes in the macro or FX picture by later this morning in Europe, though risk appetite seems to be getting a further boost. Are equity investors overreaching soon? Also on today's pod, single stock news, a look at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting tonight as the JPY punches to new lows in place and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Send us a textThis week on The Wall Street Skinny, we sat down with Gene Tannuzzo, Global Head of Fixed Income at Columbia Threadneedle, right as the Federal Reserve's latest rate decision hit the wires. We walk through the live market reaction to the Fed's 25 basis point cut, the dissenting voices on the FOMC, and what this move signals about the central bank's shifting priorities. For those curious about how policy decisions ripple into real-time trading activity, this episode gives you a rare seat at the table during the announcement itself.As Gene explains, the flatness of today's yield curve and the Fed's projections for additional cuts this year underscore the tension between slowing labor market data and still-stubborn inflation. We dig into the nuances of steepeners versus flatteners, what the dot plot is really telling us, and how fiscal policy plays into the broader bond market narrative. Whether you're an experienced market watcher or just starting to understand the dynamics of Fed meetings, you'll come away with a much clearer framework for interpreting these moves.We also broaden the conversation to explore structural shifts in the economy, including labor force trends, immigration, and the role of AI in reshaping productivity and capital spending. Gene helps break down why funding markets matter, how balance sheet policy can contradict rate policy, and what investors should watch for as the Fed balances credibility, growth, and inflation risk. The result is a lively, insightful discussion that blends market theory, policy analysis, and practical trading perspective.For a 14 day FREE Trial of Macabacus, click HERE For 20% off Deleteme, use the code TWSS or click the link HERE! Sign up for our LIVE Virtual Bootcamps! 2-Day Financial Modeling Bootcamp Master the technical Excel and accounting skills essential for investment banking, private equity, and fundamental investing. (Learn more HERE) Global Markets & Investing PlaybookA one-day crash course on the financial ecosystem, perfect for anyone seeking a big-picture understanding of how global markets and Wall Street fit together. Our content is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any such information or other material as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. (Learn more HERE)

This week on Bits + Bips, hosts Steve Ehrlich and Ram Ahluwalia speak with Blockchain.com's Nic Cary and Franklin Templeton's Max Gokhman. We talk about how the potential Base token would alter the L2 landscape, and who should capture the value if Coinbase becomes the backbone for DeFi. Also, whether Web2 and TradFi giants will buy their way onchain, why privacy infrastructure is overdue, and how TON's superapp strategy could pressure social platforms to follow suit.  Plus: how Franklin Templeton is valuing L2s and other tokens, why the FOMC's decision matters for crypto risk, and how tariff talk could spill into digital assets.  Thank you to our sponsor, Xapo! Hosts: Steve Ehrlich, Executive Editor at Unchained Ram Ahluwalia, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida Guests: Nic Cary, Co-Founder and Vice Chairman at Blockchain.com Max Gokhman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions Links: Unchained:  Base Will Likely Have a Token: Why Now, Who Wins, and How Big It Gets Base Starts to Explore a Native Token Timestamps:

On today's Breakdown, NLW unpacks the Senate's confirmation of Trump adviser Stephen Moran to the Fed and the fierce debate over central bank independence ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting. He then dives into Coinbase's exploration of a native token for its Base network, what it could mean for decentralization, shareholder dynamics, and tokenization. Plus, Robinhood announces a new retail venture fund aimed at opening private markets to everyday investors. Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

A Fed rate decision just hours away: Get ready with David Faber and Sara Eisen this hour, along with former Fed economist & creator of the "Sahm" rule Claudia Sahm. To kick things off: the team looked at where things stand on consumer rates - and current FOMC members - before jumping into the market impact. Housing also a key focus as the rate on a 30-year mortgage hits multi-year lows... Walker & Dunlop Chairman Willy Walker came to Post 9 with his read on what could come next.  Also in focus: a series of individual stock stories on the day.... Hear from the CEO of Lyft, as shares surge double digits on a new Waymo partnership. Plus: a wide-ranging discussion with former SEC Chair Gary Gensler - spanning crypto to the President's new push to end quarterly results. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today, some final thoughts on what could be a shambolic FOMC meeting, given the risk of a three-way vote and possibly vague statements, given the possible influence of newly minted Fed Governor Stephen Miran. Also, a very interesting development yesterday suggests Fed control of interest rates is slipping - or is this just a one off because of tonight's meeting? Elsewhere, the US dollar has broken down. This, some must reads and must listens and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (with a one- to two-hour delay from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

https://rhr.tv/stream - Fed rate cut? https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september - Bondi goes after "hate speech" https://x.com/tftc21/status/1967786191060902257 - Charlie on "hate speech" https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1786189687260103119 - - Bluesky Implements Age Verification in South Dakota and Wyoming https://reclaimthenet.org/bluesky-age-verification-south-dakota-wyoming-kids-web-services - Strike removes fees on direct deposits https://primal.net/e/nevent1qqsfknzmm8hnguvp9wny7cwdzn9jgpqks9jsugap3l8c2xdej9y6fasfw48h6 - The E-Cash App fedimint foss wallet released https://ecash.love - Cakewallet releases Cupcake offline signer https://blog.cakewallet.com/meet-cupcake-your-new-secret-weapon-for-crypto-security/ 0:00 - Intro 2:35 - FOMC meeting 4:05 - Dashboard & mempools 14:25 - Fed rate cut? 20:43 - 1ZH 31:20 - Hate speech/censorship 1:02:10 - Bluesky age verification 1:07:35 - Strike paid in bitcoin fee waived 1:10:15 - Fedimint E-Cash 1:16:35 - Boost & rumors Shoutout to our sponsors: Coinkite https://coinkite.com/ Stakwork https://stakwork.ai/ Obscura https://obscura.net/ Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/marty Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://tftc.io/podcasts/ Follow Odell: Nostr https://primal.net/odell Newsletter https://discreetlog.com/ Podcast https://citadeldispatch.com/

Market Recap and FOMC Meeting Preview - September 16th, Dividend Cafe In this episode of Dividend Cafe, host Brian Szytel covers the market performance on a fairly uneventful trading day, with the DOW closing down 125 points, and both the S&P and Nasdaq seeing minor declines. The discussion shifts to the upcoming FOMC meeting, highlighting the high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, potential dissents from new appointee Governor Steven Miran and others, and the implications for future Fed policy. Retail sales and industrial production data show stronger-than-expected performance, despite a softening labor market. Brian also touches on the Home Builder Confidence Survey and its correlation with interest rates and the housing market. The episode ends with a reminder to tune in for the next update and reach out with questions. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:28 FOMC Meeting and Rate Policy Expectations 01:01 Potential Dissents and Fed Dynamics 01:43 Understanding the Taylor Rule 03:16 Current Economic Indicators 04:10 Conclusion and Sign Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Keith discusses the potential takeover of the Federal Reserve by President Trump, highlighting the macroeconomic implications.  Economist, author and publisher of Macro Watch, Richard Duncan, joins the show and explains that central bank independence is crucial to prevent political influence on monetary policy, which could lead to excessive money supply and inflation.  Trump's policies, including tariffs and spending bills, are inflationary, necessitating lower interest rates.  Resources: Subscribe to Macro Watch at RichardDuncanEconomics.com and use promo code GRE for a 50% discount. Gain access to over 100 hours of macroeconomic video archives and new biweekly insights into the global economy. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/571 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the President has a plan to completely take over the Fed, a body that historically stays independent of outside influence. Learn the fascinating architecture of the planned fed seizure and how it's expected to unleash a wealth Bonanza and $1 crash with a brilliant macroeconomist today, it'll shape inflation in interest rates in the future world that you'll live in today. On get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:33   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:21   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Speaker 1  1:31   Welcome to GRE from Fairfax, Virginia to Fairfield, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are listening to get rich education. The Federal Open Market Committee is the most powerful financial institution, not only in the nation, but in the entire world, and when an outside force wants to wrestle it and take it down. The change that it could unleash is almost incredible. It's unprecedented. The President wants full control. Once he has it, he could then slash interest rates, order unlimited money creation, and even peg government bond yields wherever he wishes, and this could drive wealth to extraordinary new highs, but this also carries enormous risks for the dollar and inflation and overall financial stability. And I mean, come on now, whether you like him or not, is Trump more enamored of power than Emperor Palpatine in Star Wars or what this is fascinating. Today's guest is going to describe the architecture of the takeover the grand plan. Our guest is a proven expert on seeing what will happen next in macroeconomics. He's rather pioneering in AI as well. But today, this all has so much to do with the future of inflation and interest rates. We're going to get into the details of how, step by step, Trump plans to infiltrate and make a Fed takeover.    Keith Weinhold  3:23   I'd like to welcome back one of the more recurrent guests in GRE history, because he's one of the world's most prominent macroeconomists, and he was this show's first ever guest back in 2014 he's worked with the World Bank and as a consultant to the IMF. He's contributed a lot on CNBC, CNN and Bloomberg Television. He's a prolific author. His books have been taught at Harvard and Columbia, and more recently, he's been a guest speaker at a White House Ways and Means Committee policy dinner in DC. So people at the highest levels lean on his macroeconomic expertise. Hey, welcome back to GRE joining us from Thailand as usual. It's Richard Duncan   Richard Duncan  4:03   Keith, thank you for that very nice introduction. It's great to see you again.   Keith Weinhold  4:08   Oh, it's so good to have you back. Because you know what, Richard, what caught my attention and why I invited you back to the show earlier than usual is about something that you published on macro watch, and it's titled, Trump's conquest of the Fed will unleash a wealth Bonanza, $1 crash and state directed capitalism. I kind of think of state directed and capitalism as two different things, so there's a few bits to unpack here, and maybe the best way is to start with the importance of the separation of powers. Tell us why the Fed needs to maintain independence from any influence of the president.   Richard Duncan  4:44   Central banks have gained independence over the years because it was realized that if they didn't have independence, then they would do whatever the president or prime minister told them to do to help him get reelected, and that would tend to lead to excessive money supply. Growth and interest rates that were far too low for the economic environment, and that would create an economic boom that would help that President or politician get reelected, but then ultimately in a bust and a systemic financial sector crisis. So it's generally believed that central bank independence is much better for the economy than political control of the central bank.   Speaker 1  5:24   Otherwise we would just fall into a president's short term interests. Every president would want rates essentially at zero, and maybe this wouldn't catch up with people until the next person's in office.   Richard Duncan  5:35   That's right. He sort of wants to be Fed Chair Trump. That's right, president and Fed Chairman Trump on the horizon. It looks like won't be long, Now.   Speaker 1  5:45   that's right. In fact, even on last week's episode, I was talking about how Trump wants inflation, he won't come out and explicitly say that, of course, but when you look at the majority of his policies, they're inflationary. I mean, you've got tariffs, you've got deportations, this reshaping of the Fed that we're talking about the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending in the one big, beautiful Bill act. It is overwhelmingly inflationary.   Richard Duncan  6:12   It is inflationary. And he may want many of those things that you just mentioned, but what he doesn't want is what goes along with high rates of inflation, and that is high interest rates, right? If interest rates go up in line with inflation, as they normally do in a left to market forces, then we would have significantly higher rates of inflation. There would also be significantly higher rates of interest on the 10 year government bond yield, for instance. And that is what he does not want, because that would be extremely harmful for the economy and for asset prices, and that's why taking over the Federal Reserve is so important for him, his policies are going to be inflationary. That would tend to cause market determined interest rates to go higher, and in fact, that would also persuade the Fed that they needed to increase the short term interest rates, the federal funds rate, if we start to see a significant pickup in inflation, then, rather than cutting rates going forward, then they're more likely to start increasing the federal funds rate. And the bond investors are not going to buy 10 year government bonds at a yield of 4% if the inflation rate is 5% they're going to demand something more like a yield of 7% so that's why it's so urgent for the President Trump to take over the Fed. That's what he's in the process of doing. Once he takes over the Fed, then he can demand that they slash the federal funds rate to whatever level he desires. And even if the 10 year bond yield does begin to spike up as inflation starts to rise, then the President can instruct, can command the Fed to launch a new round of quantitative easing and buy up as many 10 year government bonds as necessary, to push up their price and to drive down their yields to very low levels, even if there is high rate of inflation.   Keith Weinhold  7:58   a president's pressure to Lower short term rates, which is what the Fed controls, could increase long term rates like you're saying, it could backfire on Trump because of more inflation expectations in the bond market.   Richard Duncan  8:12   That's right. President Trump is on record as saying he thinks that the federal funds rate is currently 4.33% he said it's 300 basis points too high. Adjusting would be 1.33% if they slash the short term interest rates like that. That would be certain to set off a very strong economic boom in the US, which would also be very certain to create very high rates of inflation, particularly since we have millions of people being deported and a labor shortage at the moment, and the unemployment rate's already very low at just 4.2% so yes, slashing short term interest rates that radically the federal funds rate that radically would be certain to drive up the 10 year government bond yield. That's why President Trump needs to gain control over the Fed so that he can make the Fed launch a new round of quantitative easing. If you create a couple of trillion dollars and start buying a couple of trillion dollars of government bonds, guess what? Their price goes up. And when the price of a bond goes up, the yield on that bond goes down, and that drives down what typically are considered market determined interest rates, but in this case, they would be fed determined interest rates Trump determined interest rates.   Speaker 1  9:28   Inflationary, inflationary, inflationary, and whenever we see massive cuts to the Fed funds rate that typically correlates with a big loss in quality of life, standard of living, and items of big concern. If we look at the last three times that rates have been cut substantially, they have been for the reasons of getting us out of the two thousand.com bubble, then getting us out of the 2000 day global financial crisis, then getting us out of covid in 2020, I mean, massive rate cuts are. Are typically a crisis response   Richard Duncan  10:02   yes, but if we look back, starting in the early 1980s interest rates have have trended down decade after decade right up until the time covid hit. In fact, the inflation rate was below the Fed's 2% inflation target most of the time between 2008 the crisis of 2008 and when covid started, the Fed was more worried about deflation than inflation during those years, and the inflation rate trended down. And so the interest rates tended to trend down as well, and we're at quite low levels. Of course, back in the early 1980s we had double digit inflation and double digit interest rates, but gradually, because of globalization, allowing the United States to buy more and more goods from other countries with ultra low wages, like China and now Vietnam and India and Bangladesh, buying goods from other countries with low wages that drove down the price of goods in the United States, causing goods disinflation, and that drove down the interest rates. That drove down the inflation rate. And because the inflation rate fell, then interest rates could fall also, and that's why the interest rates were trending down for so long, up until the time covid hit, and why they would have trended down again in the absence of this new tariff regime that President Trump has put into place. Now, this is creating a completely different economic environment. President Trump truly is trying to radically restructure the US economy. There is a plan for this. The plan was spelled out in a paper by the man who is now the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. His name is Steven Moran, and the paper was called a user's guide to restructuring the global trading system. It was published in November last year, and it very clearly spelled out almost everything President Trump has done since then in terms of economic policy. It was truly a blueprint for what he has done since then, and this paper spelled out a three step plan with two objectives. Here are the three steps. Step one was to impose very high tariffs on all of the United States trading partners. Step two was then to threaten all of our allies that we would no longer protect them militarily if they dared to retaliate against our high tariffs. And then the third step was to convene a Mar a Lago accord at which these terrified trading partners would agree to a sharp devaluation of the dollar and would also agree to put up their own trade tariffs against China in order to isolate China. And the two objectives of this policy, they were to re industrialize the United States and to stop China's economic growth so that China would be less of a military threat to the United States, which it is currently and increasingly with each passing month. So so far, steps one and two have been carried out very high tariffs on every trading partner, and also threats that if there's any retaliation, that we won't protect you militarily any longer. And also pressure on other countries to put high tariffs against China. The idea is to isolate China between behind a global tariff wall and to stop China's economic growth. So you can see that is what President Trump has been doing. And also in this paper, Stephen Marin also suggested that it would be very helpful if the Fed would cooperate to hold down 10 year government bond yield in this environment, which would naturally tend to push the bond yields higher. So that paper really did spell out what President Trump has done since then.   Keith Weinhold  13:59   This is fascinating about this paper. I didn't know about this previously, so this is all planned from tariffs to a Fed takeover.   Richard Duncan  14:08   That's right, the idea is to re industrialize the United States. That's what President Trump has been saying for years. Make America Great Again. And it's certainly true that America does need to have the industrial capacity to make steel and ships and pharmaceutical products and many other things in his own national self defense. But there's a problem with this strategy since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, and we've talked about this before, so I will do this fast forwarding a bit when the Bretton Woods system broke down up until then it broke down in 1971 before then, trade between countries had to balance. So it wasn't possible for the United States to buy extraordinarily large amounts of goods from low wage countries back then, this thing that's caused the disinflation over the last four decades, trade had to balance because on the Bretton Woods system, if we had a big trade deficit. Deficit, we had to pay for that deficit with gold. US gold, and gold was money. So if we had a big trade deficit and had to pay out all of our gold other countries to finance that deficit, we would run out of gold. Run out of money. The economy would hit a crisis, and that just couldn't continue. We'd stop buying things from other countries. So there was an automatic adjustment mechanism under the Bretton Woods System, or under the classical gold standard itself that prevented trade deficits. But once Bretton Woods broke down in 1971 It didn't take us too long to figure out that it could buy extraordinarily large amounts of things from other countries, and it didn't have to pay with gold anymore. It could just pay with US dollars, or more technically, with Treasury bonds denominated in US dollars. So the US started running massive trade deficits. The deficits went from zero to $800 billion in 2006 and now most recently, the current account deficit was $1.2 trillion last year. So the total US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $17 trillion this has created a global economic boom of unprecedented proportions and pulled hundreds of millions of people around the world out of poverty. China is a superpower now, because of its massive trade surplus with the US, completely transformed China. So the trade surplus countries in Asia all benefited. I've watched that firsthand, since I've spent most of my career living in Asia, but the United States also benefited, because by buying things from low wage countries that drove down the price of goods, that drove down inflation, that made low interest rates possible, that made it easier for the US to finance its big budget deficits at low interest rates, and so with Low interest rates, the government could spend more and stimulate the economy. Also with very low interest rates, stock prices could go higher and home prices could go higher. This created a very big economic boom in the United States as well. Not only did the trade surplus, countries benefit by selling more to the US, but the US itself benefited by this big wealth boom that has resulted from this arrangement. Now the problem with President Trump's plan to restructure the US economy is that he wants to bring this trade deficit back down essentially to zero, ideally, it seems. But if he does that, then that's going to cut off the source of credit that's been blowing this bubble ever larger year after year since the early 1980s and we have such a big global credit bubble that if this source of credit has been making the bubble inflate, the trade deficit, if that were to significantly become significantly lower, then this credit that's been blowing up, the bubble would stop, and the bubble would implode, potentially creating very severe, systemic financial sector crisis around the world on a much, probably a much larger scale than we saw in 2008 and leading to a new Great Depression. One thing to think about is the trade deficit is similar to the current account deficit. So the current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Every country's balance of payments has to balance. So last year, the US current account deficit was $1.2 trillion that threw off $1.2 trillion into the global economy benefiting the trade surplus countries. But those countries received dollars, and once they had that 1.2 trillion new dollars last year, they had to invest those dollars back into us, dollar denominated assets of one kind or another, like government bonds or like US stocks, and that's what they did. The current account deficit is the mirror image of capital inflows into the United States. Last year was $1.2 trillion of capital inflows. Now if you eliminate the current account deficit by having very high trade tariffs and bringing trade back into balance, you also eliminate the capital inflows into the United States, and if we have $1.2 trillion less money coming into the United States a year or two from now, that's going to make it much more difficult to finance the government's very large budget deficits. The budget deficits are expected to grow from something like $2 trillion now to $2.5 trillion 10 years from now, and that's assuming a lot of tariff revenue from the tariffs, budget deficit would be much larger still. So we need the capital inflows from these other countries to finance the US budget deficit, the government's budget deficit. If the trade deficit goes away, the capital inflows will go away also, and with less foreign buying of government us, government bonds, then the price of those bonds will fall and the yield on those bonds will go up. In other words, if there are fewer buyers for the bonds, the price of the bonds will go down and the yield on the bonds will go up. In other words, long term interest rates will go up, and that will be very bad for the US Economy   Speaker 2  14:08   the yields on those 10 year notes have to go up in order to attract investors. Mortgage rates and everything else are tied to those yields.   Richard Duncan  19:36   That's right. And cap rates. When people consider investing in tech stocks, they consider they'll buy fewer stocks if the interest rates are higher. So this is why it's so important for President Trump to conquer the Fed, to take over the Fed. That's what he's doing. Technically, he's very close to accomplishing that. Shall we discuss the details?   Speaker 1  20:29   Yes, we should get more into this fed takeover, just what it means for the future of real estate markets and stock markets. With Richard Duncan, more, we come back. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold   Keith Weinhold  20:41   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com. You know what's crazy?    Keith Weinhold  21:13   Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading, it's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family. 266, 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family. 266, 866,   Dani-Lynn Robison  22:24   you is freedom family investments co founder, Danny Lynn Robinson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 1  22:31   Welcome back to get Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking with macroeconomist Richard Duncan about a Fed takeover. I think the President wants to be Fed Chair Trump, Richard. Talk to us more about this, because this is really part of a grand plan.   Richard Duncan  22:57   So the Federal Reserve is in charge of monetary policy. That means it sets the interest rates on the federal funds rate, the short term interest rates, and it also has the power to create money through quantitative easing or to destroy money through quantitative tightening. So the Fed is in charge of monetary policy. The Fed makes its decisions at its it meets eight times a year, the Federal Open Market Committee, the FOMC, meets eight times a year, and they take votes. They discuss what's going on in the economy. They make a decision about what they should do about interest rates, and in some cases, decisions about creating or destroying money through quantitative easing or quantitative tightening. They take a vote. The structure of the Federal Reserve System is as follows. There are seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, so there are seven fed governors there. The Federal Reserve Board is in based in Washington, DC. In addition to that, there are 12 Federal Reserve banks around the country, like the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, for instance, or the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Each of these Federal Reserve Banks have a president, so there are 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents now at the FOMC meetings where interest rates are decided, all seven fed governors get a vote, but only five Federal Reserve Bank presidents get to vote, and they rotate their votes every year they the following year are different. Five fed presidents get to vote. The Federal Reserve Bank president of New York always gets the vote because New York is such an important financial center, but the other four other presidents keep rotating year after year, and the presidents, 12 presidents, serve five year terms, and they can be reappointed, and their terms expire all at the same time, all on the same day, all of their terms will expire next year on February 28 and they will perhaps be reappointed and perhaps. Be reappointed. So that's the structure, seven Federal Reserve Bank governors and 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. All the governors. All seven get to vote at every FOMC meeting, but only five of the Presidents get to vote. So that's a total of 12. The Governors of the Federal Reserve System are the most important the seven. Those seven include the Chairman, Chairman Powell, and this is why they're the most important. They're important because if four of the seven have the power to fire all of the Federal Reserve Bank presidents, if four fed governors vote together, they can fire all 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents. It only takes four. Only takes four. Then those Federal Reserve Bank presidents would have to be replaced, but the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has to approve the replacements. So if President Trump has four fed governors who will do what he tells them to do, then they can fire all the Federal Reserve Bank presidents and only replace them with other people who will do what President Trump tells them to do. Gosh. So what this means is, if the president can get four Federal Reserve Bank governors out of seven, then he has absolute control over monetary policy. He can do anything he wants with interest rates. He can do anything he wants with quantitative easing. So how many does he have now? Well, he has two that he's appointed, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman. They voted to cut interest rates at the last FOMC meeting. That was a dissenting vote, because the rest of the voting members voted to hold interest rates steady. Those two have already voted with the President, so they're on Team Trump, and they're going to stay on Team Trump, because both of them would like to become Fed Chairman when Jerome Powell term expires in May next year, very suddenly and very unexpectedly. A month or so ago, another fed Governor resigned. Her name is Adriana Coogler. Her term was not due to expire for another six months, and she'd not given any indication that she was going to resign early, but she did this now gives the President can nominate the Federal Reserve Bank governors. So he is nominated Stephen Moran, the one who wrote the paper the grand plan. Grand plan. He's nominated him to replace Adriana Coogler, yeah, and he's going to vote on him on his appointment, perhaps within very soon, and it only takes 51 senators to vote him in. And since the Republicans control the Senate, he will be approved, it seems very likely that he will be approved, and that will give President Trump the third vote on the FOMC. He will have three out of the seven governors. He only needs one more, and this is where at least the cook comes in. So on the 26th of August, I think President Trump announced that he was firing Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, because she allegedly had made misleading statements on some mortgage applications that have not been proven yet, that they are alleged. So he says that he has fired her. She has said he does not have the right to fire her. The legal cases that the President does have the right to fire a Federal Reserve Bank Governor, but only for cause. And so there's a real question whether this qualifies as being for cause or not, especially since it's only alleged at this point, but assuming that he does get control. So if he does succeed in firing her, he will be able to appoint her replacement, and that will give him four members, four governors out of the seven. And as we just discussed, with four out of seven, he will have complete control over monetary policy, because with four out of seven, that would give him the power to command those four to vote to fire all 12 presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then to appoint new presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks who would vote along with whatever President Trump tells them to vote for. So in that case, with four fed governors, he would have those Four Plus he would have the five presidents that he would appoint from the Federal Reserve Banks voting for him. So five plus four, that is nine, nine out of 12 voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee. He would be guaranteed nine out of 12 votes on the FOMC, and that would give him complete control over monetary policy, and that's what he needs, because his policies are inflationary. They're going to drive up inflation. They're and that's going to push up the 10 year government bond yield, and it would normally make the Fed also increase the federal funds rate, because higher inflation should the Fed in. Increase the interest rates to cool down the higher inflation. But now that's not going to happen, because he is going to take over the FOMC one way or the other. Just by firing Lisa Cook, he's sending a very clear message to all the other fed governors and to the 12 existing Federal Reserve Bank presidents, you do what I tell you or you may be investigated too. You're next, one way or the other, the President is going to get what the President wants, and what he wants is control over monetary policy, and what that means is much lower short term interest rates and probably another very big round of quantitative easing to hold down long term interest rates as well.   Keith Weinhold  30:41   That was an amazing architecture and plan that you laid out for how a President can take over the Federal Open Market Committee. That was amazing to think about that, and what we believe he wants you talked about it is potentially quantitative easing, which is a genteel way of saying dollar printing. Is it lowering the Fed funds rate down to, I think 1% is what he desired, and we're currently at about 4.3%   Richard Duncan  31:08   that's right. He said he'd like to see the federal funds rate 300 basis points lower, which would put 1.3% we could see a series of very sharp interest rate cuts by the Fed in the upcoming FOMC meetings, so we could see the short term interest rates falling very quickly, but as we discussed a little bit earlier, that would alarm the bond market and investors, because they would realize that much lower interest rates would lead to much higher rates of inflation by overstimulating the economy. And so the 10 year bond yields will move higher for fear of inflation, and that will then force President Trump to command the Fed, to create money through quantitative easing on a potentially trillion dollar scale, and start buying up government bonds to push up their price and drive down their yields, so that the 10 year bond yields and the 30 year bond yields will fall. And since mortgage rates are pegged to the government bond yields mortgage rates will fall, and credit card rates will fall, and bank lending rates will fall, and this will kick off an extraordinary economic boom in the US, and also drive asset prices very much higher and create a wealth Bonanza,   Keith Weinhold  32:15   right? And here, Richard and I are talking interestingly, just two days before the next Fed decision is rendered, therefore, with eminent cuts, we could very well see soaring stock and real estate markets fueled by this cheap credit and this quantitative easing, at least in the shorter term.   Richard Duncan  32:36   But timing is something one must always keep in mind, there is a danger that we could actually see a sell off in the stock market in the near term. If we start seeing the Fed slashing interest rates, then the 10 year bond yields will start moving higher. That would ultimately lead to quantitative easing to drive those yields back down. But when the falling short term interest rates start pushing up interest rates on the 10 year government bond yield because investors expect higher rates of inflation, that could spook the stock market. The stock market's very expensive, so before QE kicks in, there could actually be a period where raising expectations for higher rates of inflation drive the 10 year bond yields higher before the Fed can step in and drive them back down again. We could actually see a sell off in the stock market before we get this wealth boom that will ultimately result when the Fed cuts the short term rates and then quantitative easing also drives down the long term rates. I hope that's not too confusing. There could be a intermediate phase, where bond yields move higher, and that causes the stock market to have a significant stumble. But that wouldn't last long, because then President Trump would command the Fed to do quantitative easing, and as soon as the president says on television that he's going to do quantitative easing, between the moment he says quantitative and the moment he says easing, the stock market is going to rocket higher.   Keith Weinhold  34:05   And here we are at a time where many feel the stock market is overvalued. Mortgage rates have been elevated, but they're actually still a little below their historic norms. The rate of inflation hasn't been down at the Fed's 2% target in years, it's been above them, and we've got signs that the labor market is softening.   Richard Duncan  34:25   That's true. The labor market numbers in the most recent job number were quite disappointing, with the revisions to earlier months significantly lower. But of course, with so many people being deported from the United States now, that's contributing to this lower job growth numbers. If you have fewer people, there are fewer people to hire and add to job creation, so that may have some distorting impact on the low job creation numbers. The economy actually is seems to be relatively strong the the. Latest GDP now forecast that the Atlanta Fed does is suggesting that the economy could grow by three and a half percent this quarter, which is very strong. So the economy is not falling off a cliff by any means. If the scenario plays out, as I've discussed, and ultimately we do get another round of quantitative easing and the Fed cuts short term interest rates very aggressively. That will create a very big economic boom with interest rates very low. That will push up real estate prices, stock prices and gold prices and Bitcoin prices and the price of everything except $1 the dollar will crash because currency values are determined by interest rate differentials. Right now, the 10 year government bond yield is higher than the bond yields in Europe or Japan, and if you suddenly cut the US interest rates by 100 basis points, 200 basis points, 300 basis points, and the bond yields go down very sharply, then it'll be much less attractive for anyone to hold dollars relative to other currencies, and so there will be a big sell off of the dollar. And also, if you create another big round of quantitative easing and create trillions of dollars that way, then the more money you create, the less value the dollar has supply and demand. If you have trillions of extra new dollars, then the value of the dollar loses value. So the dollar is likely to take a significant tumble from here against other currencies and against hard assets. Gold, for instance, that's why we've seen such an extraordinary surge in gold prices.   Speaker 1  36:38   right? Gold prices soared above three $500 and Richard I'm just saying what I'm thinking. It's remarkable that Trump continues to be surrounded by sycophants that just act obsequiously toward him and want to stay in line and do whatever he says. And I haven't seen anyone breaking that pattern.   Richard Duncan  36:59   I'm not going to comment on that observation, but what I would like to say is that if this scenario does play out, and it does seem that we're moving in that direction, then this big economic boom is very likely to ultimately lead to the big economic bust. Every big boom leads to a big bust, right? Big credit booms lower interest rates, much more borrowing by households, individuals, companies. It would while the borrowing is going on, the consumption grows and the investment grows, but sooner or later, it hits the point where even with very low interest rates, the consumers wouldn't be able to repay their loans, like we saw in 2008 businesses wouldn't be able to repay their loans, and they would begin defaulting, as they did in 2008 and at that point, everything goes into reverse, and the banks begin to fail when they don't receive their loan repayments. And it leads to a systemic financial sector crisis. The banks lend less when credit starts to contract, then the economy collapses into a very serious recession, or even worse, unless the government intervenes again. So big boom that will last for a few years, followed by a big bust. That's the most probable outcome, but I do see one other possibility of how that outcome could be avoided, on the optimistic side, and this is it. If once President Trump slash Fed Chairman Trump has complete control over US monetary policy, then it won't take him long to realize Stephen Moran has probably already told him that he would then be able to use the Fed to fund his us, sovereign wealth fund. You will remember, back in February, President Trump signed an executive order creating a US sovereign wealth fund. And this was music to my ears, because for years, as you well know, I've been advocating for the US government to finance a multi trillion dollar 10 year investment in the industries and technologies of the future   Keith Weinhold  39:01   including on this show, you laid that out for us a few years ago and made your case for that here, and then Trump made it happen.   Richard Duncan  39:08   Let's try my book from 2022 it was called the money revolution. How to finance the next American century? Well, how to finance the next American Century is to have the US, government finance, a very large investment in new industries and new technologies in things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotechnology, genetic engineering, biotech, robotics, clean energy and fusion, create fusion and everything, world where energy is free, ultimate abundance. So I was very happy that President Trump created this US sovereign wealth fund. Now that he will soon have complete control over his US monetary policy, he will understand that he can use the Fed to fund this, US sovereign wealth fund. He can have the Fed create money through quantitative easing and. And start investing in fusion. We can speed up the creation of the invention of low cost fusion. We could do that in a relatively small number of years, instead of perhaps a decade or longer, as things are going now, we could ensure that the United States wins the AI arms race that we are in with China. Whoever develops super intelligence first is probably going to conquer the world. We know what the world looks like when the United States is the sole superpower. We've been living in that world for 80 years. Yeah, we don't know what the world would look like if it's conquered by China. And China is the control super intelligence and becomes magnitudes greater in terms of their capacity across everything imaginable than the United States is whoever wins the AI arms race will rule the world. This sort of investment through a US sovereign wealth fund would ensure that the winner is the US and on atop it, so it would shore up US national security and large scale investments in these new technologies would also turbocharge US economic growth and hopefully allow us to avoid the bust that is likely to ultimately occur following The approaching boom, and keep the economy growing long into the future, rather than just having a short term boom and bust, a large scale investment in the industries of the future could create a technological revolution that would generate very rapid growth in productivity, very rapid economic growth, shore up US national security, and result in technological miracles and medical breakthroughs, possibly curing all the diseases, cure cancer, cure Alzheimer's, extend life expectancy by decades, healthy life expectancy. So that is a very optimistic outcome that could result from President Trump becoming Fed Chairman Trump and gaining complete control over monetary policy. And this is all part of the plan of making America great again. If he really followed through on this, then he certainly would be able to restructure the US economy, re industrialize it, create a technological revolution that ensured us supremacy for the next century. That's how to finance the next American century.   Speaker 1  42:23   Oh, well, Richard, I like what you're leaving us with here. You're giving us some light, and you're talking about real productivity gains that really drives an economy and progress and an increased standard of living over the long term. But yes, in the nearer term, this fed takeover, there could be some pain and a whole lot of questions in getting there. Richard, your macro watch piece that caught my attention is so interesting to a lot of people. How can more people learn about that and connect with you and the great work you do on macro watch, which is your video newsletter   Richard Duncan  43:00   Thanks, Keith. So it's really been completely obvious that President Trump was very likely to try to take over the Fed. Nine months ago, I made a macro watch video in December called Will Trump in the Fed, spelling out various ways he could take over the Fed, and why he probably would find it necessary to do so. So what macro watch is is it describes how the economy really works in the 21st Century. It doesn't work the way it did when gold was money. We're in a completely different environment now, where the government is directing the economy and the Fed, or seeing the President has the power to create limitless amounts of money, and this changes the way everything works, and so that's what macro watch explains. It's a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to impact asset prices, stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies and wealth in general. So if your listeners are interested, I'd encourage them to visit my website, which is Richard Duncan economics.com that's Richard Duncan economics.com and if they'd like to subscribe, hit the subscribe button. And for I'd like to offer them a 50% subscription discount. If they use the discount coupon code, G, R, E, thank you, GRE, they can subscribe at half price. I think they'll find that very affordable. And they will get a new video every couple of weeks from me, and they will have immediate access to the macro watch archives, which have more than 100 hours of videos. Macro watch was founded by me 12 years ago, and I intend to keep doing this, hopefully far into the future. So I hope your listeners will check that out.   Keith Weinhold  44:46   Well, thanks, both here on the show and on macro watch Richard gives you the type of insight that's hard to find anywhere else, and you learn it through him oftentimes before it makes the headlines down the road. So. Richard, this whole concept of a Fed takeover is just unprecedented, as far as I know, and it's been so interesting to talk about it. Thanks for coming back onto the show.   Richard Duncan  45:08   Thank you, Keith. I look forward to the next time.   Speaker 1  45:17   Yeah, fascinating stuff from Richard in the nearer term, we could then see interest rate cuts that would go along with cuts to mortgages and credit card rates and car loan rates and all kinds of bank lending rates. This could pump up the value of real estate, stocks, Bitcoin, gold, nearly everything a wealth bonanza. Now, in polls, most Americans think that the Fed should stay independent from outside control. You really heard about how the President is dismantling the safeguards that protect that fed independence, the strategy he's using to bend the Federal Open Market Committee to His will. And this is not speculation, because, as you can tell, the takeover of the Fed is already underway. A fed governor has been fired. New loyalists are being installed, and key votes are lining up in the President's favor. But as far as the longer term, you've got to ask yourself, if these policies will inflate a giant bubble destined to burst down the road. I mean triggering a crisis as bad as 2008 I mean, these are the very questions that every investor should be asking right now, if you find this in similar content fascinating, and you want to stay on top of what is forward looking what's coming next macroeconomically, check out Richard Duncan's macro watch at Richard Duncan economics.com for our listeners, he's long offered the discount code for a 50% discount that code is GRE, that's Richard Duncan economics.com and the discount code GRE next week here on the show, we're bringing it back closer to home with key us, real estate investing strategies and insights, a lot of ways to increase your income. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit you Daydream.   Speaker 3  47:20   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Speaker 1  47:40   You You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text gre to 66866,   Keith Weinhold  48:59   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get richeducation.com you.  

Today, we're pulling back the curtain on one of the most powerful institutions in the global economy: the Federal Reserve. The Fed's meeting later this month isn't the only reason the central bank is in the headlines. Between President Trump's push to oust both the BLS Commissioner and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and his mounting public pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, all eyes are on the Fed like never before. In this special joint episode of Money Rehab and Mo News, Nicole and Mosh are joined by Austan Goolsbee, FOMC member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.  Goolsbee shares what it's like to be in historic Fed meetings, breaks down the balancing act between inflation and interest rates, and weighs in on the critical role of the Fed's independence. They also dig into whether the data that guides these billion-dollar decisions is still up to snuff in 2025, and what interest rates might actually look like in the months ahead. If you want to know where interest rates—and the economy—are headed, this is the episode to take to the bank. Subscribe to Mo News Follow Austan Goolsbee's work This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Cryptocurrency trading services are offered by Bakkt Crypto Solutions, LLC (NMLS ID 1890144), which is licensed to engage in virtual currency business activity by the NYSDFS. Cryptocurrency is highly speculative, involves a high degree of risk, and has the potential for loss of the entire amount of an investment. Cryptocurrency holdings are not protected by the FDIC or SIPC.  *APY as of 6/30/25, offered by Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC. Rate subject to change. See terms of IRA Match Program here: public.com/disclosures/ira-match.