Podcasts about fomc

1:10 久違的升息，已在通膨數據公布時price in 3:00 會後聲明的趨勢延續: 短、通用、細節少 5:10 通膨數據最重要，集中精力在中東消息與分析 7:50 點陣圖的數據化分析，2026鷹派超乎事前預期 10:50 2027非對稱上移，大致符合預期 13:13 目前市場預期: 10月一半一半全年必升1碼 15:15 2027步伐先緊後鬆，官員看待數據的預期條件 16:41 債市總覽(雖然我數年來至今都不推薦投資債市) 20:20 中東情勢與油價才是短線絕對核心 24:00 川普政策與期中選舉有關 & 有關價值觀的真心話 29:30 低波動度仍然持續，連續性也有限 31:40 一天一個AI鬼故事，舊聞邏輯不通你也信嗎? 相關文章與連結: https://www.big-econ.com/index.php?sec=article&ID=4126 -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

Marley Kayden wraps the week's market action, with the S&P 500 (SPX) lower by a tenth of a percent and the Nasdaq-100 the only major index in the green. The FOMC raised rates 25 basis points—the first hike since 2023—with projections pointing to another before year-end. Bitcoin gained 5% after the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate, and J.B. Hunt (JBHT) shares fell 13% on a Q3 earnings warning driven by record-high diesel prices. Looking ahead, she previews PMI data, jobless claims, and earnings from KB Home (KBH), General Mills (GIS), Darden Restaurants (DRI), and Costco (COST).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/schwab-Network/dp/B08JJRQG9T/Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/channel/bb1b75050268416e82a557ff6387bff3/browseWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus/catalog/live-tv-channels/3123029569/schwab-networkFollow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - About | Schwab Network

It's FOMC decision day. The data says do nothing. Flat curves say mistake. The inflation data doesn't say what hawks think it does. Do policymakers send a message and Trichet themselves? What about the dots? Where do rates go?

Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators" DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free) Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Join - https://www.skool.com/discovercrypto/about ​​If you have ever made money watching this channel, we need your help! Join the community to help us create the best Crypto education platform on the planet! 

The Fed's 25 bps interest rate hike was expected, though the unanimous decision was not, says Michael Reinking. He highlights the "confusing story" he sees in what the FOMC projects to be a "timelier" return to 2% inflation. On the AI trade, Michael sees momentum very much intact, pointing to headlines from neoclouds like CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) signaling demand is going nowhere. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Arnim Holzer talks about the bond market's negative reaction to the Fed's interest rate hike Wednesday followed by Thursday's reversal to the upside in equities. He believes investors are coming to terms that the FOMC can't do a "one and done" rate hike, adding that the U.S. economy will stay strong even if a hiking cycle shapes up. Arnim also explains the disconnect between crude oil prices and refining issues that build pressure in the energy market. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

"Warsh really had to do what he was expected to do," says Rebecca Walser on the Fed's decision to hike interest rates by 25 bps. She says the FOMC's goal to reach 2% inflation "will never happen" due to AI hyperscaler CapEx ballooning, making the argument the committee needs a new benchmark. Rebecca explains how she sees the AI "capital wars" playing out in the years to come as Anthropic and OpenAI raise safety warnings. That said, she believes investors need to stay invested in AI-tied stocks. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Jason England believes the 25 bps interest rate hike from the Fed's September meeting is warranted given the FOMC's prior 75 bps worth of cuts. He believes this hike gives Fed Chair Kevin Warsh some slack to reclaim the committee's 2% inflation target. That said, Jason says the Fed funds rate is much higher than it should be. He weighs on how lasting volatility will continue to hit equities and bonds alike as Warsh and company weigh a "tough" tentative rate hike in October. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

[핫이슈, 더 깊게] FOMC, 3년 만에 금리인상!... 금리인상기 투자전략은?

欢迎收听雪球出品的财经有深度，雪球，国内领先的集投资交流交易一体的综合财富管理平台，聪明的投资者都在这里。今天分享的内容叫对9月F O M C决议的解读与思考，来自陆家嘴幽灵。昨晚，9月F O M C最终以12票全票通过，将联邦基金利率目标区间上调25个基点至3.75%至4.00%，这也是美联储三年来首次加息。市场此前对本次加息已有较充分定价（会前预期概率高达92%）。A I板块表现相对抗跌，美光、海力士几乎收平；Lumentum、Coherent分别涨近9.6%和7%。因此，真正需要关注的并不在于加息本身，而是背后的共识、试图向市场传递的信号、以及对未来的预期。一、本次决议：更强调共识的声明回顾7月的F O M C会议，当时声明中透露出明显的内部分歧。投票结果为9比3，有三名票委主张加息，最终美联储选择按兵不动。而本次会议，情况发生了反转：12票全票赞成加息，展示出了内部强大共识。对比7月声明，本次声明的措辞虽然更为精简，但透露出了比较清晰的信号：第一，删除了“部分反映了供应冲击推动能源等领域价格上涨”的解释，只保留结论“通胀仍处于高位”；第二，新增一句指向性“今天的行动将有助于更及时实现委员会2%的目标”。这宣告了加息不是被动应对，而是为了加速压降通胀而采取主动出击。第三，声明用了更泛化的表述，同时新增“国内支出保持韧性”的评价。这表明其认为当前实体经济完全能够承受甚至消化加息带来的紧缩效应。二、点阵图解读：今年是否会再加一次？本次发布的9月点阵图传递出的信号是：今年加息可能不会一次即止，年内大概率还有一次加息。在18名提供预期的委员中：12人预计今年还会再加息25个基点；4人预计还会加息两次（50个基点）；仅2人认为年内不再加息；无人预计今年会降息。也就是说，高达90%的委员认为今年的加息工作并未结束。如果看更长远的预期中值：二零二六年底和二零二七年底的利率中位值均被上调至4.1%，直到二零二八年才缓慢降至3.9%。这意味着美联储不仅在短期内要继续收紧，而且在明年全年都不打算降息。市场此前期待的宽松周期，被再次推迟。与之相匹配的，是美联储对经济预测（S E P）的全面上修：小幅上调了明后年的G D P增速，下调了失业率，但同时上调了今明两年的P C E与核心P C E通胀预期。这意味着，美联储并不满足于通胀是否继续恶化，而是要求看到更明确、更持续的回落趋势。能源、商品等因素本身未必能被加息直接解决，但它储担心的是一次性的供给冲击通过工资、服务价格和通胀预期扩散为更广泛的二次通胀。这种经济好、就业稳、通胀高的宏观组合，从某种意义上来说堵住了降息的必要性。三、发布会解读Wash在发布会上的发言也值得关注，有几个重点：首先，重新定义加息为“取消宽松”：面对为何在通胀已有回落迹象时加息的质疑，他的逻辑是：经济在走强，信贷流动强劲，委员会一致认为当前金融条件算不上限制性。因此，加息本质是为了“撤回一部分宽松”，让金融环境回归常态，去匹配抗通胀的目标。这也是本次加息的核心：美联储不认为经济已出现失速风险，而是认为经济仍具韧性、金融条件仍能承受，因而有空间把重心重新放回价格稳定。其次，摒弃单一数据依赖，重视底层趋势：过去十几年，市场习惯了拿着每个月的C P I或非农数据去判断美联储的动作。Wash批评了这种做法，直言“在一个数据点上屏息等待是危险的”。他强调，趋势远比单一数据更重要。8月份的通胀数据虽然略有回落，但在他眼中通胀依然过高、持续过久。同时，对抗压力，重申独立性：Wash再次表明“独立性是双向的街道。我们将让每个人留在自己的路线上。”他对于施压不作评论，也不受其干扰，表明美联储只会为经济数据和物价稳定负责。最后，拆解长端利率走高：对于近期飙升的十年期美债收益率，Wash给出了三个维度的解释：强劲的经济基本面、超大型企业（尤其是A I基建带来的资本开支）带来的资本竞争，以及地缘风险推升的通胀预期。另外他特别提到，美联储成立了专门的工作组，研究A I可能对未来决策环境产生的影响。总体上，Wash的表态可以总结为：不会为了单月C P I或零售数据改变政策；更重视通胀趋势、经济强度和金融条件；不会把高利率自动等同于已经足够紧；如果就业维持稳定，通胀仍未明确回落，就有继续收紧的空间。四、总结决议后的市场反应表明，对终端利率和高利率持续时间的判断被重新上调。首先受压的通常是对估值更敏感的资产。利率上行意味着远期现金流折现率提高，市场会更严格审视高估值成长股的盈利兑现速度。对于依赖融资、处于亏损扩张期的公司，资本成本上升的影响更直接。但本次会议后，A I相关板块表现相对抗跌，反映出市场并未将加息简单理解为对资本开支出现担忧。相反，美联储之所以加息，恰恰是因为它看到经济、企业融资和资本投资仍有韧性。Wash在解释长端利率上行时，特别提到经济走强、资本竞争和超大规模云厂商融资。A I基础设施建设带来的资金需求，已经成为影响长端利率的重要变量之一。这也给A I投资带来一个更复杂的框架：A I资本开支一方面推升服务器、网络、电力、数据中心和上游供应链需求；另一方面，大规模融资和资本竞争也会推高长期收益率，提高全社会资本成本。因此，不能简单把A I投资理解为生产率提升，所以天然利好降息。生产率改善通常需要时间兑现，而投资支出、融资需求和资源竞争却先发生。短期内，A I可能同时带来需求扩张、资本竞争与通胀约束；中长期则要看生产率提升能否覆盖前期资本投入。过去市场习惯于围绕单月通胀、非农和下一次会议概率交易；而现在强调趋势而非数据点、金融条件而非单纯利率、价格稳定而非提前作出承诺。所以它给出的更像是一个判断标准：只要经济仍有韧性、就业仍较稳定、金融条件并不限制，且核心通胀没有明确向2%回落，就不会急于结束紧缩。对市场而言，接下来要交易的已经不只是12月会不会再加25个基点，而是利率终点在哪里、高利率要维持多久，以及企业利润能否承受更高的资本成本。

Petri Redelinghuys from Herenya Capital Advisors unpacks the overnight FOMC rate decision and asks whether the party is over for gold. Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, discusses record results and plans to grow production despite rising costs. Plus, Trevino Ramsamy from STANLIB Asset Management on why private capital needs a stronger pipeline of investable projects.

เจาะลึกผลประชุม FOMC ท่ามกลางวิกฤตพลังงานโลกระลอกใหม่ และเงินเฟ้อที่สูงของสหรัฐฯ พร้อมอ่านสัญญาณทิศทางดอกเบี้ยจะไปทางไหน พูดคุยกับ สรพล วีระเมธีกุล ผู้ช่วยกรรมการผู้จัดการ และหัวหน้าทีมกลยุทธ์การลงทุน บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ (บล.) กสิกรไทยสื่อนอกเผย เปิดธุรกรรมพบ ‘ทรัมป์' ซื้อขายหลักทรัพย์มากกว่าสมาชิกรัฐสภาสหรัฐฯ รวมกัน นับตั้งแต่กลับสู่ทำเนียบขาว รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไร

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach joins our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen to discuss the Fed's potential next moves and how energy prices are influencing market expectations.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Today, what the Federal Reserve decided at its September meeting and what it could mean for rates through the end of the year.It's Wednesday, September 16th at 4pm in New York.So, Mike, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points at this week's meeting. What stood out to you the most in the decision? And when it comes to inflation, how do you think this 25-basis point rate hike is actually going to affect the inflation outlook?Michael Gapen: Yeah, so certainly the decision was in line with expectations. You know, obviously what we've learned in the very broad sense is that inflation isn't moving fast enough in the direction that the Fed wants. So, it's responding by tighter monetary policy. And that does set up a very interesting question which you just asked, which is: Well, is it going to work? Is this the right response to the inflation that we're seeing?So, if you do go back and reread that Jackson Hole speech, there's not a lot in there about the drivers of inflation, what's causing higher inflation. But it's clear the only response to above target inflation from the point of view of the chair was tighter monetary policy. So, the Fed is in a bit of a pickle.Most of us believe the majority of the inflation we're seeing is supply side driven from tariffs, from energy. At least in the past, let's call it supply chain disruptions, a de-globalization narrative. Some of it is demand side driven through AI. But I think we're all looking at that thinking modestly tighter rates isn't necessarily going to bring down that AI-related inflation.So, we're left to conclude that the Fed's in this uncomfortable position of saying, "Well, a lot of the inflation that we're seeing is supply side driven and from the structural AI story that we're not convinced higher rates can maybe address."So I think the answer would be, if inflation's going to come down, then higher rates will be weighing on the parts of the economy that are more interest rate sensitive and generally soft already.Matthew Hornbach: Is this a one and done? Or do you think that when the Fed actually goes ahead and hikes rates after a long pause, they are thinking about delivering more than just one rate hike?Michael Gapen: Yeah, I strongly believe the committee as a whole is thinking in terms of more than one move. Monetary policy doesn't, say, hyper-react. It reacts with a bit of a delay. So, to your point, they've been on hold for a while. When they think about changing policy, then they're thinking about a series of moves.So, I think in their mind, if they're raising rates, there's a strong probability that they will do at least one more or two more. They're never going to think that a 25-basis-point move in the funds rate will fundamentally change the macro-outlook. So, I don't think they'd ever walk into this thinking one and done.Now, it is possible we get an ex-post one and done. So, how could that come about? If it is true indeed that we're right that a lot of this inflation is supply-side driven. It is coming down. It's clear that the three- and six-month annualized rates are pointing to disinflation into year-end. We can debate whether it's fast enough or not.But if disinflation continues to happen, then the Fed will have hiked, expect to maybe do another one. But by the time we get there, inflation has improved enough, and they end up not doing it.So, they would sound like, "Oh, we're still ready. We still think we've got more work to do." But in the moment, the data just arrives in a way that they stay where they are. So you would look back and say it was a one and done, but I don't think they go into this thinking one rate hike is going to fundamentally change the story.Matthew Hornbach: Now, of course, the data that we'll get between today and the December meeting will likely have an impact on their decision-making – as well as any revisions that we end up getting.And I think one of the stories that investors have been talking about are some of the methodological changes that the Bureau of Economic Analysis is implementing into the PCE inflation data. Do you see any scope for those types of revisions to lend itself to a one and done type of a policy for this year?Michael Gapen: It is possible. There's uncertainty about what actually those revisions are going to bring. But quality adjustments to software, for example, will over time likely bring inflation lower. Some of the revisions to the other categories. So, we do think it will on average lower year-on-year rate of inflation by about 1/10 or so, maybe a little more.So, it could show up on the high side. And then you've got what looks to be a different path.So yes, I think one of the reasons to maybe go slower, think about perhaps a quarterly pace of hikes, as opposed to, "Oh, we're just going to ramp up three, four meetings in a row," is to let some of this play out. See what those revisions look like.So yes, it could contribute to a world where revisions plus softness in the incoming data mean they hike, say, in September, don't do another one after that. Or those revisions are part of the reason why they think a slower-moving cycle rather than a more aggressive one is appropriate.Matthew Hornbach: Does the labor market play any role today in monetary policy?Michael Gapen: I think it's certainly secondary, if not tertiary. I don't want to say that the committee as a whole sees the labor market just fine and we don't have any concerns there.What's super helpful from the rate hike perspective is labor income, wage income out of the labor market is still decelerating and pretty modest. It doesn't suggest that the economy's overheating and the labor market is a source of upward pressure on inflation. So, I think that's beneficial in terms of thinking of the rate hike cycle.In the other direction, I'd say we've had a number of months now of, kind of, you know, let's call it 50,000 to 70,000 jobs a month on average if you kind of smooth through some of the volatility. That's not amazing, but it's not awful either.So Matt, I'd like to turn it back to you. This is of course the economist's perspective. When we translate this into the rates market; rates market clients may have a very different view. But I would be interested to hear your thoughts on how you think the rates market is dealing with the inflation. I don't want to say impulse, but let's call it the sticky disinflation we're getting, the sources of that inflation, and how it sees monetary policy reacting.How is the rates market digesting all of this?Matthew Hornbach: So, I think actually investors are reasonably nonplussed about what's happening in the underlying rate of inflation in the country. But what has inserted itself into the conversation is the price of energy and how impulsively energy prices have risen over recent months.When we look at how market prices evolve with respect to the path for monetary policy, what we observe empirically is that if energy prices are going up in a given week or in a given month, the market reprices to a more hawkish path for Fed policy. And if energy prices come down in a given week or a given month, and we see the market pricing towards a less hawkish path for monetary policy.So, the primary driver of how the markets are pricing the future of Fed policy is, in fact, the changes in the price of energy commodities. So, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, gasoline prices. And so, this is something that we just can't get away from.There are, of course, other things that do influence the level of Treasury yields, but I would suggest that they are more secondary or tertiary themselves in terms of… Similar to the labor market. I would say they have less of an impact on the overall level of yields.So, with a market-implied hiking cycle from the Fed at about three hikes or so from here, given that the Fed just delivered one rate hike, you know, the 10-year treasury yield is around 5 percent. It was much lower earlier this year, and we were pricing in two rate cuts at that point in time.So, you get the sense that if the market's moving from pricing in two rate cuts to pricing in four rate hikes, and the 10-year yield goes from 4.25 percent to 5 percent, obviously there's a relationship there.One factor that investors are certainly interested in is – how does the debt stock play a role in the level of yields? And one of the things that I've been telling people to consider is that it's not the level of the debt, the amount of debt in the economy that matters most for the level of interest rates – as odd as that may be to hear for listeners. It's how quickly that debt stock grows.So, if the debt stock is going up at a certain pace, and that pace is within the bounds of investor expectations, then it typically doesn't have that big of an impact on the bond market. So, one of the factoids that may surprise people is: about four years ago, the news media was very interested in the fact that the amount of debt in the United States had breached $31 trillion. And, the 10-year treasury yield at that time had peaked at about 4.25 percent, somewhere around there.Well, earlier this year, before the conflict in Iran began, the 10-year treasury yield was also around 4.25 percent. But this is four years later, and over these four years, the U.S. has added $9 trillion to the debt.So, here again, this is a good example, I think, of this idea that you can have a dramatic expansion in the debt from [$]31 trillion to [$]40 trillion, and yet the 10-year treasury yield itself is broadly unchanged.And so that just, I think, should tell investors that it's not the size of the debt that matters per se. Lots of other factors can influence the level of treasury yields. And how the market thinks about the Fed is certainly among the more important of those.So, Mike, just want to say thanks again for taking the time to talk after another FOMC meeting.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt.Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Brian Szytel recaps a volatile Fed day in which the FOMC unanimously raised rates 25 basis points, moving the range from 3.50–3.75 to 3.75–4.00, a move largely priced in. He notes dot plots implying one more hike before year-end (around 4.00–4.25), with market reaction reflecting short-term yields up slightly, long-term yields down slightly, and the 10-year unchanged near 5.01. Markets sold off (Dow ~-740, S&P ~-0.6%, Nasdaq ~-0.1%) but improved off the lows, with internals not signaling a major risk-off flush. Economic data included stronger-than-expected August retail sales (1.2% vs 0.8%) and weaker NAHB homebuilder sentiment. He also answers a viewer question, distinguishing price spikes in items like oil from broad inflation driven by money supply, referencing CPI/PCE and headline vs core measures. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:17 Fed Rate Decision 01:03 Yield Curve Reaction 01:28 Why Markets Lead 02:10 Economic Data Check 02:29 Market Close Snapshot 03:30 Inflation Question Explained 04:44 Wrap Up and Thanks 04:52 Disclosures and Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Bijan Maleki and Kris Bullock break down the crypto market just ahead of today's critical FOMC decision, with traders bracing for a potential rate hike and another major test for Bitcoin and risk assets. They run through the charts to identify which tokens continue to show relative strength, which are consolidating, and which are beginning to roll over as the market waits for its next major catalyst. Plus, they take live questions from Real Vision members.

Hans Felix shares his 11-year trading journey, how he made $109,000 on a single FOMC day, and his mechanical 'Hold Time Psychology' strategy for US30 and Gold. Full episode + show notes: https://tradingnut.com/sir-hans-felix/ Key moments - [03:54] This is basically freedom at the expense of knowledge that is uncapped. - [06:52] You become the liquidity until you find out... why is it that I see a sell and it turns into a buy? - [10:11] One of the biggest weak points that I had... is how to walk away sooner from a loss. - [12:11] Information overload happens when you try to learn everything instead of finding a simplified system that works for you. - [15:11] My favorite go-to setup is the previous session sweep, one-minute or five-minute break and retest. - [23:32] If your exit is not as tight as your entry, you might not make a dollar. - [28:28] As soon as I saw a hundred and nine thousand, I closed everything. Five minutes after, the market retraced all the way back. - [32:20] If you've bought at least ten to twenty prop firm accounts... you could have just kept on depositing that money into a live account. - [36:42] I pay myself about twenty percent of my gains so that even if I mess up, I still did my part in paying myself. - [43:50] I use a method called hold time psychology... knowing how long the setup usually plays for keeps you from micromanaging. Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63Ge4u-D5DY --- Sponsors BlackBull Markets - 100% deposit bonus & free TradingView. NZ-regulated broker. https://tradingnut.com/go/blackbull/ FTMO - Buy a challenge and we'll help you pass it. https://tradingnut.com/go/ftmo/ --- More from Trading Nut Strategy Vault - Free guest setups organised by method. https://tradingnut.com/go/vault/ TraderZen - Free trade control & mindset app for active traders. https://tradingnut.com/go/traderzen/ Dynamic Traders Club - Free 7-minute rule strategy — mechanical intraday setup. https://tradingnut.com/go/dtc/ --- Educational only - not financial advice. Risk: https://tradingnut.com/disclaimers/ Some links are affiliate partnerships.

As you may know, Gastech is currently underway in Bangkok, Thailand. To help us get a sense of the on-the-ground takeaways and sentiment, we had the pleasure of hosting our good friend Martin Houston. Martin is a longtime energy industry leader with decades of global experience. He currently serves as Chairman of Omega Oil and Gas, a Non-Executive Director of Energean, BUPA Arabia, CC Energy, and Singapore GasCo, and a Senior Advisor at Moelis & Company. Martin previously co-founded Tellurian, where he served as Executive Chairman until the company's sale in 2024, and spent 32 years at BG Group, serving as Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director. Mark Castiglione is also attending Gastech and joined us for today's session. We were thrilled to host Martin and hear his perspectives on the global natural gas and LNG outlook, Asia's growing energy needs, and beyond. In our conversation, Martin and Mark share key themes emerging from Gastech, including energy security, affordability, and reliability, Asia's role as the primary engine of global energy demand growth, and a more pragmatic approach to decarbonization. They discuss how Asian policymakers and industry leaders are focused on securing the affordable and reliable energy needed to support economic growth and rising power demand. We explore the global natural gas and LNG outlook, the growing importance of resilience and diversity of supply, the push to advance new U.S. FIDs, and the potential for continued demand growth in increasingly price-sensitive markets such as China. We examine the intersection of energy and geopolitics, including growing government intervention in energy markets, the possibility of Russian natural gas eventually returning to Europe, U.S. natural gas resource depth, and significant gas development opportunities in Australia and Indonesia. We discuss ASEAN grid connectivity and the region's increasing focus on energy diversification and cooperation, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, European gas storage levels, and potential surprises for global energy markets. Martin highlights growing investment in infrastructure “workarounds” to the Strait that could reshape regional energy flows and expresses optimism that global natural gas demand and supply could ultimately surprise to the upside, despite continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility. We greatly appreciate Martin for joining us during a very busy week in Bangkok. In our upfront discussion, Mike Bradley noted that the primary themes in our lead-ins over the past several weeks have been elevated U.S. interest rates, heightened volatility in global oil markets, and below-average European natural gas storage levels. This week, however, another risk entered the spotlight: the AI-driven market scare, which has contributed to increased volatility and negatively impacted U.S. equity markets. In fixed income, the 10-year Treasury yield pushed above 5% for the first time since 2007. Markets are focused on Wednesday's FOMC meeting, with a 25-basis-point rate increase broadly expected and investors watching Chairman Warsh's comments for signals on inflation and further hikes. In energy, WTI rose to ~$103–$104/bbl, partly reflecting damage to Saudi Arabia's ~5 MMBpd East-West pipeline system. U.S. retail diesel prices have climbed to ~$6.25/gal, fueling debate over potential export restrictions. European natural gas prices also rose to ~$28/MMBtu, up ~200% year-to-date, as concerns persist over rebuilding storage ahead of winter. Mike wrapped by highlighting growing AI-related concerns, which contributed to a ~500-point decline in the DJIA. Recent comments from Anthropic's CEO have raised questions in the minds of investors about the longer-term growth trajectory of the Mag 7 and the industrial, utility, and energy companies benefiting from the AI infrastructure build-out. We hope you all enjoy the discussion as much as we did. Thanks again to Martin for joining and our best to you all!

US equities were down in Wednesday trading, rebounding a bit from their worst levels after somewhat hawkish remarks from Warsh post-FOMC. The Fed raised rates by 25 bp as widely expected, while dot plot showed one additional rate hike for 2026 and nothing more in 2027. Market still pricing in 25 bp of hikes through year-end.

It's not what the Fed is going to do in Wednesday's interest rate decision that will move markets, but the FOMC's forward projections that will, says Cooper Howard of Charles Schwab. He says the chance of a hold is still on the table, something he sees raising long-term yields "substantially." Nathan Peterson addresses bond volatility on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's willingness to offer more guidance on interest rate outlook. Both turn to the 10-year Treasury yield's "psychological level" at 5%. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about  

Minutes after the Fed released its unanimous decision to hike interest rates by 25 bps in September, John Lonski points to "unfazed" consumers amid higher energy prices as the fulcrum tilting the FOMC toward its decision. He explains how the Fed can balance a still-strong consumer even as prices on goods across the U.S. climb. John touches on wording from the Fed on a "timelier" return to 2% inflation as a sign its focus remains on one side of the dual mandate.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/schwab-Network/dp/B08JJRQG9T/Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/channel/bb1b75050268416e82a557ff6387bff3/browseWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus/catalog/live-tv-channels/3123029569/schwab-networkFollow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Original Youtube ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://youtube.com/live/xCkzPwlTVq4

Brian Szytel reviews a down market day driven by oil staying above $100 (Brent 108, WTI 105), ongoing Middle East tensions, and the 10-year Treasury closing near 5%, noting equities are only a few percent off highs. Using an S&P 500 forward earnings estimate of about $406/share next year, he argues a 5% pullback implies ~17.5x forward earnings and a 10% drawdown ~16.6x—normal moves that would still look reasonable given expected double-digit earnings growth and a more tech-heavy index. He contrasts today's resilience with 2023's 5% yield episode when markets fell and credit spreads widened, saying spreads remain orderly. Ahead of the FOMC, markets price a 25 bp hike; he doubts bigger moves. He addresses weak 20-year auction headlines and explains that despite large AI-driven corporate issuance (hyperscalers spending $300–$400B; ~$2.4T total corporate issuance), pensions and insurers still strongly demand long-dated Treasuries. 00:00 Market Backdrop Today 00:44 Earnings And Valuation Math 02:27 Why Markets Stay Resilient 04:23 Fed Day And Bond Auction 05:08 AI Debt Versus Treasuries 07:16 Data Check And Wrap Up Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Grace Remington and Sean Hagan break down the #FOMC outlook, the #ClarityAct vote, and the rise of digital credit on #Bitcoin Magazine TV (BMTV). Live Monday through Friday at 9:30am ET. Guests: - John Deaton — Managing Partner, The Deaton Law Firm - Matt Cole — Strive - Hunter Albright — SALT Lending and more! To learn more and get the latest news on BMTV, visit: www.watchbmtv.com Thank you to our BMTV Founding Sponsors!

As the Fed begins its interest rate meeting, Brian Jacobsen believes we will get a rate hike even though he thinks the FOMC should hold. He adds that a hike will be more about "symbolism" instead of "substance" to show U.S. investors the Fed remains independent. Brian explains why he sees a hike adding more headwinds for U.S. consumers. In equities, he expects a greater market pullback following rallies across tech during earnings season. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Wall Street is bracing for a more than 90% chance the Fed will raise interest rates Wednesday. Kevin Hincks discusses how he sees the market moving should the FOMC raise rates for September and gauges whether it will start a rate hiking cycle. As for the AI trade, Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang makes a pledge to President Trump that he won't allow an AI slowdown. Kevin also offers his insights on crude oil prices, which were flat ahead of Tuesday's session. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Stocks are falling and treasury yields are surging to multiyear highs as traders look ahead to the Federal Reserve's policy decision tomorrow.Brian Sullivan and Kelly Evans speak with Evercore Senior Managing Director, Julian Emanuel, and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow, Robin Brooks, on the state of the markets ahead of the FOMC meeting.Meanwhile, the Senate is holding a key procedural vote on the Clarity Act which could dictate how soon the cryptocurrency industry can be regulated in the U.S.CNBC's Kate Rooney also joins the program with a one-on-one interview with Cohere CEO, Aidan Gomez, to get his take on whether safety guardrails should be implemented on the AI industry. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

At this week's FOMC meeting, it's likely Fed governors will hike interest rates. They won't be alone. The EU raised rates last week and Japan is expected to do the same at its upcoming meeting. These central bankers are all dealing with similar inflationary pressures, and hawkish rate-setters stick together. Also in this episode: The U.S. dollar rises in anticipation of a rate hike, diesel prices break records, the subscription-BNPL-rental economy reduces how much we really own. Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Central bankers around the world are looking more hawkishThe U.S. dollar rises as investors anticipate an interest rate hikeWe don't own anything anymoreDiesel fuel hit a record high. Unlike gas, using less of it is not an optionShe built a tiny home in her aging mother's backyard

At this week's FOMC meeting, it's likely Fed governors will hike interest rates. They won't be alone. The EU raised rates last week and Japan is expected to do the same at its upcoming meeting. These central bankers are all dealing with similar inflationary pressures, and hawkish rate-setters stick together. Also in this episode: The U.S. dollar rises in anticipation of a rate hike, diesel prices break records, the subscription-BNPL-rental economy reduces how much we really own. Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Central bankers around the world are looking more hawkishThe U.S. dollar rises as investors anticipate an interest rate hikeWe don't own anything anymoreDiesel fuel hit a record high. Unlike gas, using less of it is not an optionShe built a tiny home in her aging mother's backyard

Our central bank finds itself in a tough spot as inflation ticks higher and the Treasury Secretary tries unsuccessfully to suppress bond yields leading many to wonder if Fed policy matters much these days. With the FOMC decision on interest rates set for this week, Liz Thomas of SoFi drops in with her perspective, and the most important indicators to watch through the balance of this year. Plus, stocks have almost never been this expensive, historically speaking, but they are looking like a bargain into the future. Does the forward P/E ratio outweigh CAPE ratio? That's the bet we are making as investors. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

In this episode of the Financial Survival Network, host Kerry Lutz is joined by Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Management to break down the latest troubling economic indicators. Opening with a personal story about soaring everyday prices, Lutz sets the stage for a discussion on stubborn inflation, highlighted by recent PCE numbers rising at 3.7% against the Fed's 2% target. With GDP slowing to 1.5%, Tuttle outlines the sticky position this creates for the Federal Reserve and incoming Chair Kevin Warsh as they head into Jackson Hole and upcoming FOMC meetings. The duo explores the political pressure on the Fed to cut rates, the treasury market interventions by the Treasury Department, and why the long-dormant "bond vigilantes" may force interest rates higher regardless of central bank policy. Turning toward actionable investment strategies, Tuttle argues that traditional 60/40 portfolios and long-duration bonds are currently uninvestable in an inflationary environment. Instead, he shares Tuttle Capital's unique approach to modern portfolio construction: balancing high-upside AI "bottleneck" stocks with "Halo" (heavy asset, low obsolescence) value companies and century-old "Lindy" stocks. He highlights tactile assets like gold and silver—noting key technical signals for silver at $70 and $75—alongside cryptocurrency and property and casualty (P&C) insurance stocks, which he utilizes as higher-upside, zero-benchmark bond substitutes. Find Matthew here: https://www.tuttlecap.com/ Find Kerry here:  https://khlfsn.substack.com and here: https://inflation.cafe    All Kerry's books are available here:  Amazon Bookstore    

In the Broadway musical, Fiddler on the Roof, Tevye, the well-meaning patriarch of a poor family, has to make some tough choices in a complicated time.  Tevye, (who always reminded me of my father-in-law, Bill), has trouble deciding and three times during the play the music comes to a halt as he wanders through a long soliloquy of “on the other hand's”. The Federal Reserve also has a tough choice to make in a complicated time.  We now believe that they will raise rates this week.  However, it is important to understand the logical twists and turns needed to reach that conclusion in order to trace out a potential path forward for the economy, interest rates and asset class returns. To bring some structure to the argument, the issues can be divided into three sections: the economy, the FOMC itself and the importance of Fed credibility.

We sat down with Chris Hodge, Chief U.S. Economist at Natixis Corporate & Investment Bank Americas, for his outlook on monetary policy in the current rate cycle. Chris joins host Mark Gatto, co-Founder and co-CEO of CION Investments, to discuss whether recent economic data prints point to a disinflationary trend, and how AI capex is bolstering what Chris calls a "three-speed economy" amid flattened consumer spending and declining wage growth.

US equities finished lower in Monday trading, though ended well off the morning's weakness. A rotation out of the AI infrastructure space was today's big story. There's also a lot of anticipation ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

Chuck Lieberman of Advisors Capital Management discusses the FOMC's upcoming rate decision amid current inflation and strong growth, and explores AI's impact on the economy and market breadth. He highlights REITs like Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI) and Healthpeak Properties, favors money center banks Citigroup (C) and Wells Fargo (WFC) for their recovery stories, and contrasts the lower-risk appeal of oil pipelines against AI investments.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Hincks discusses Anthropic co-founder Dario Amodei's call that AI is growing too fast and its impact on markets. As Kevin highlights, some Big Tech names are still higher even though shares of Nvidia (NVDA), AMD Inc. (AMD), and Micron (MU) slid on Amodei's commentary. He turns to crude oil's "snapback" rally following a Friday selloff after key oil infrastructure was struck over the weekend. Kevin then looks ahead to this week's FOMC interest rate meeting and makes the case for a hold in September. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Nick Kunze from Sanlam Private Wealth unpacks US inflation ahead of Wednesday's FOMC announcement, plus trading updates from Remgro and Life Healthcare. Mark Tanton, CEO of Red Cap Energy, discusses the transmission-line challenges facing the Eastern Cape's wind power build-out. And Frikkie van Loggerenberg, CEO IFSA Asset Managers, reveals how hidden costs can quietly eat into your portfolio returns.

In this Daily Editorial, I am joined by Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, to analyze the shifting macro landscape, key central bank catalysts, and the latest technical action in the gold and silver markets. FOMC Expectations and the Yield Curve: A look into shifting market expectations for Wednesday's Fed decision, how the bond market has moved ahead of policy makers, and what the latest Summary of Economic Projections could mean for market direction. Geopolitical Escalation and Energy Shocks: How widening conflict and major Middle Eastern pipeline infrastructure damage are supporting crude oil prices and altering the inflation narrative. Precious Metals Price Consolidation: Why the pullback from the August highs resembles a healthy, multi-month base-building process rather than the start of a deep breakdown. Plunging COMEX Open Interest: The structural impact of near-record low open interest and changing exchange margin rules, leaving thin order books that create volatile air pockets in both directions. Gold Versus Silver Performance: Technical divergence across the metals space as gold maintains relative strength near major moving averages while silver works through an extended technical digestive phase.   Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report - https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/   ------------------ For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:  The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/  Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/   Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

The latest BLS data put real hourly wage gains at -0.3% last month, compared to last year. That's thanks to inflation running hotter than pay raises. To make up for it, some workers are putting in extra hours or dipping into their savings. In this episode, how much longer can Americans cope with what are effectively inflation-driven pay cuts? Plus: The gender wage gap slows economic productivity, housing starts grow in the Northeast as they fall elsewhere, and we weigh the possible outcomes of next week's FOMC meeting.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Last call for Fed rate predictionsInflation has devoured pay gains over the past yearWhy the gender pay gap holds back productivityRetiring at age 37 to give back to the communityHousing starts are down in most of the country. Here's why the Northeast is the exception

The latest BLS data put real hourly wage gains at -0.3% last month, compared to last year. That's thanks to inflation running hotter than pay raises. To make up for it, some workers are putting in extra hours or dipping into their savings. In this episode, how much longer can Americans cope with what are effectively inflation-driven pay cuts? Plus: The gender wage gap slows economic productivity, housing starts grow in the Northeast as they fall elsewhere, and we weigh the possible outcomes of next week's FOMC meeting.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Last call for Fed rate predictionsInflation has devoured pay gains over the past yearWhy the gender pay gap holds back productivityRetiring at age 37 to give back to the communityHousing starts are down in most of the country. Here's why the Northeast is the exception

Today, a look at the rip higher in global yields as crude oil prices spiked and the ECB surprised on the hawkish side of expectations. The market is trying to recover its equilibrium on hopes that a Monday meeting between GCC members and Iran will set things right. In the meantime, we have the US CPI report to get out of the way today, an FOMC meeting next Wednesday and Bank of Japan meeting next Friday to contend with. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links John's The FX Trader piece from today, on currency moves and what to watch for next. Goldman Sachs says that interest rates are set to remain higher and outlines why. LA Times on how the AI future is already here for some forms of video entertainment in China. Some profound thinking on where we are in the "interregnum" as we transition away from the old world order and into the new one.  A taste: "Gramsci's interregnum, the “time of monsters” when the old is dying and the new cannot be born, has become a cliché of our political moment, which is usually a sign that it is true. But what it means precisely is this: the conceptual frameworks adequate to the old order have ceased to describe reality, and the frameworks adequate to the new order have not yet been assembled." Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.  

Orphe Divounguy discusses the "oil story" he sees behind the CPI report and how it firms the inflation outlook. The report comes in the middle of a no hire, no fire job market. It also creates a conundrum for the Fed, which meets next week to decide on whether to hold or raise interest rates for September. Orphe makes the case the FOMC should hold rates next week. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Meera Chandan, Pat Locke, Anezka Christovova and Octavia Popescu discuss global FX implications of the US CPI print and upcoming FOMC meeting,  with focus on which currencies could be the most resilient in a Fed hiking cycle.   This podcast was recorded on 11 September 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5439665-0 For more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Spencer Gray and Griffin Haddad tackle the question every multifamily investor is asking: can apartments recover without cheaper debt? They walk through August's apartment data — rent growth, occupancy, and regional concessions — the pullback in home buying, and what it means for cap rates and deal flow. Plus: modeling acquisitions in a "six-cap world," what to watch in this month's CPI and FOMC decision, and a listener question on industrial real estate near SpaceX's new Texas and Louisiana facilities.Learn more about Gray Capital's current opportunities at graycapitalllc.com.

Brian Szytel reports another broad market decline (Dow -316, S&P 500 -0.5%, Nasdaq -0.7%) alongside a sharp oil rally (WTI ~+7% to $102; Brent $107), with oil up about 20% over the past week and a half amid Middle East tensions and threats to key Red Sea chokepoints including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Markets are focused on CPI ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with discussion of a roughly 70% chance of a rate hike and political pressure from upcoming midterms; he frames possible policy levels using core PCE (3.3%) and current fed funds (3.50–3.75%). He cautions against trading headlines and says rate moves are being sensationalized versus 2000. He also discusses tariffs as generally inferior to free markets, often retaliatory and effectively a consumption tax, but sometimes justified for national security or to counter unfair foreign policies. PPI and jobless claims were benign and in line. 00:00 Market Wrap and Oil Spike 01:08 CPI Preview and Fed Bets 02:40 Core PCE and Terminal Rate Math 04:52 Why Not to Trade the Noise 05:23 2000 Bubble Comparisons 06:57 Bull Markets and Fed Risk 07:28 Tariffs Explained Pros and Cons 10:03 PPI Claims and Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this episode, we dive into the rising fears of stagflation as oil prices fluctuate and the ongoing Iran conflict continues to impact global markets. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, we analyze recent economic data, including an August jobs report that added 162,000 non-farm payrolls, to predict whether the Fed will pause or hike interest rates. We also break down why core inflation remains a highly critical metric for investors to watch right now compared to volatile headline inflation.Beyond macroeconomic trends, we explore the current state of the real estate sector, where 42% of all US homes for sale are seeing price cuts, creating a distinct buyer's market. To wrap things up, we reveal the results of a real-life stock market experiment tracking a recent Nancy Pelosi trade in Bloom Energy, which resulted in a near 30% gain following its S&P 500 inclusion.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDStagflation risks and the impact of the Iran conflict on rising oil pricesAugust jobs report analysis and the surprising addition of 162,000 non-farm payrollsFOMC interest rate predictions and why an extended pause is highly likelyThe Crypto Clarity Act and its difficult political hurdles in the SenateWhy real estate is shifting into a buyer's market with widespread inventory price cutsHow the US national debt limits the potential for significant mortgage rate dropsReplicating Nancy Pelosi's Bloom Energy trade for a massive short-term gainKEY TAKEAWAYSCore inflation is a more reliable economic indicator than headline inflation, which is currently being skewed heavily by volatile oil prices.Despite fears of an economic slowdown, strong corporate earnings continue to drive the stock market upward and create new opportunities.Real estate buyers have increased negotiating leverage right now, as cities like Colorado Springs and Austin see price cuts on over 50% of active inventory.Federal interest rate cuts may not immediately lower consumer mortgage rates due to the upward pressure of a $40 trillion US national debt.Avoid making emotional investment decisions based on short-term geopolitical headlines; stick to a diversified, rules-based long-term wealth strategy.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONDiscover luxury home ownership at Orange County's tallest residential tower by visiting skylineocresidences.com.Generate consistent monthly passive income with a 10% target return through the Imagos Income Fund.Text the word "INCOME" to 844-777-1434 to see if the Imagos Income Fund is a fit for your portfolio.Follow Matty A on social media @officialmattya to watch the new ugly shopping center development series

I am the House! Bessent on Yen and other matters (he has inside information). Straight of Hormuz – There is no movement people. CPI coming Friday – many say ultimate Fed test. Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env:'production', hosted_button_id:'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src:'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt:'Donate with PayPal button', title:'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!', } }).render('#donate-button'); Follow John S. Dvorak on X Follow Andrew Horowitz on X Warm-Up - I am the House! Bessent tonight on Yen and other matters (he has inside information) - Straight of Hormuz - There is no movement people - CPI coming Friday - many say ultimate Fed test - Gen-Z Dumps the bubbles Markets - Chips up, making up for some time - Oil UP! and UP! - Yields keep climbing DHU MAILING LIST! - Go to DHUnplugged.com BOND YIELDS KEEP CLIMBING - Japan now has a 3% 10-year yield while carrying government debt above 200% of GDP. - Higher Japanese yields also create an incentive for domestic investors to bring money home rather than reaching overseas for returns. - The broader bond selloff is hitting the U.S., Germany, U.K. and Japan at the same time. FED HIKE ODDS RISE - Warsh said the Fed still has “work to do” if officials are not confident inflation is returning to 2%. - Fed Governor Christopher Waller has left open the possibility of holding rates steady if inflation cools. - The September decision is increasingly being dictated by incoming inflation data and oil. -  It is kinda funny.... The “data-dependent Fed” is now apparently oil-dependent, jobs-dependent and whatever-CPI-says-next-week-dependent. OIL KEEPS PRESSURE ON INFLATION - Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed oil higher and revived fears about supply through the Strait of Hormuz. - The Strait remains one of the most important chokepoints for global energy flows. - Oil is working directly against central banks trying to bring inflation back toward target. -  Basically, central banks can raise rates all they want yet it is too bad that the the Strait of Hormuz does not attend FOMC meetings. SCHWAB VOLATILITY TRADE - Barron's argues low market volatility may not last as fall seasonality and macro risks build. - Schwab could benefit if volatility drives heavier customer trading activity. - The suggested trade used an October risk reversal built around $110 puts and $120 calls. BEAR INVASION - Colorado has logged more than 7,000 bear sightings this year, already a record. - Drought and poor natural food supplies are pushing bears into homes and businesses. - New Mexico and Utah have also reported unusually high numbers of bears being euthanized. - One Colorado homeowner found two bears inside his hallway; another wandered into a vape shop. - Is this a warning for markets????? META SETTLEMENT - Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion over 10 years to settle state claims involving harm to children. - States had been seeking penalties approaching $200 billion. - Teen accounts will face time limits, overnight restrictions and muted school-hour notifications. - Meta did not have to eliminate personalized recommendations or targeted advertising. BROADCOM: NEXT AI CHECK - Broadcom reports Wednesday after the close, another major test of AI spending after Nvidia. - Focus will be on AI semiconductor growth, hyperscaler demand and the outlook for custom AI accelerators. - Broadcom's guidance matters beyond the stock because it offers a read on whether huge data-center spending plans are still accelerating. WEIRD ONE: SHEIN'S UPSIDE-DOWN IPO - Shein is looking to raise about $1.8 billion in its Hong Kong IPO while paying roughly $3.6 billion in cash and stock to early investors. - The payouts stem from investor protections triggered after Shein's valuation collapsed from about $98 billion in 2022 to roughly $26.8 billion. - Some of the same early investors receiving compensation are coming back as cornerstone buyers in the IPO. - Essentially: raise $1.8 billion from new investors while sending twice that amount back to older ones. GOOD GOOD GOES BAD - Good Good Golf's controversial Callaway ad showed co-founder Garrett Clark shoving a female creator in a movie spoof, triggering immediate backlash. - Callaway ended its partnership, Dick's and Golf Galaxy pulled Good Good merchandise, and Golf Channel canceled the current "Big Break x Good Good" season. - Good Good also stepped away as title sponsor of the PGA Tour's November event in Austin. - WOW - the company had more than 2 million YouTube followers and become one of golf's fastest-growing media and merchandise businesses before the blowup. ARGENTINA BEEF PRICE FIX - Trump expanded lower-tariff beef imports by 300,000 metric tons in an effort to bring down record-high U.S. beef prices. - The U.S. cattle herd is at its lowest level in 75 years, while USDA expects beef production to fall roughly 4% this year. - Argentina is one source of additional supply, but U.S. ranchers argue cheaper imports could undercut domestic producers just as they are trying to rebuild herds. - Trump says imported beef could help lower prices; farm-state lawmakers and ranch groups say the short-term consumer fix could make the long-term supply problem worse. EUROPE GETS GROWTH AND INFLATION - Euro-zone manufacturing is expanding at its fastest pace in more than four years as headline inflation moves back above 3%. - Stronger factories give the ECB more room to tighten without immediately crushing economic activity. - Much of the new inflation pressure is energy-driven, which higher ECB rates cannot directly fix. - Europe finally gets better manufacturing numbers, so naturally the reward is another rate hike. CHINA'S TWO-SPEED ECONOMY - The private manufacturing PMI showed expansion while the official factory reading remained in contraction. - Export orders strengthened, but services and domestic demand remain weak. - The divergence shows the improvement remains concentrated in exporters. - Alternative Facts: Depending on which PMI you prefer, China's factory sector is either expanding or contracting. Two economies for the price of one. THE $50 BILLION DATA-CENTER IPO - SB Energy is reportedly seeking a valuation above $50 billion despite having no operational data centers. - It reported about $139 million of first-half revenue against a $3.21 billion net loss. - The company claims roughly $439 billion of project backlog. - OpenAI is an investor, warrant holder and major future customer; Nvidia is also providing capital while supplying the chips. - Soooooo...... No operating data centers, billions in losses and a possible $50 billion valuation. At least they remembered to build the valuation first. NVIDIA BUYS HUGGING FACE FOR $13 BILLION - Nvidia agreed to buy Hugging Face for about $12.9 billion. - Hugging Face was valued at $4.5 billion in 2023 and has about $150 million in annual revenue. - Nvidia will pay roughly $11.9 billion to shareholders plus $1 billion in employee retention equity. - Hugging Face will remain open and interoperable. - JC Called this earlier last week. Obviusly the pressure was on since his scoop and they needed to get this done. UNCLE SAM'S STOCK PORTFOLIO - Federal equity positions now include Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals. - Intel, MP Materials and Trilogy Metals all jumped after their respective government deals. - An Intel shareholder lawsuit argues the CHIPS Act did not authorize the government to demand an equity stake. - The case could affect other government investments made using CHIPS Act funding. GEN Z DUMPS THE BUBBLES - Non-carbonated drinks accounted for 38% of new premixed-alcohol launches last year, up from 27% in 2021. - Boston Beer's Sun Cruiser is growing while Truly slows. - Mom Water is on pace to exceed 1 million cases this year. - Lucky One Lemonade sold 1 million cases in its first seven months. - Gen Z has apparently decided carbonation was the problem. TRUMP WANTS LOWER RATES - President Trump called for lower interest rates after the August jobs report. - Markets moved the other way, increasing expectations for a September Fed hike. - Kevin Warsh has kept another rate increase on the table. - Markets were pricing roughly a 60%-plus chance of a quarter-point September hike. JOBS REPORT CRUSHES ESTIMATES - August payrolls rose 162,000 versus roughly 56,000 expected. - July was revised from a 23,000 decline to a 21,000 gain. - Unemployment held at 4.1%. - Labor-force participation rose to 61.6%. - Wage growth eased to 3.1% year over year. MAPQUEST IS NO. 1 AGAIN - MapQuest jumped from No. 128 to No. 1 in the U.S. App Store. - The surge followed its decision to keep the Lake Ontario name. - More than half of its 2026 U.S. downloads reportedly came in just a few days. - Google Maps now shows “Lake America” for U.S. users. AUSTRALIA JOINS THE BOND SELLOFF - Australia's 10-year government bond yield climbed above 5.1%, its highest since 2011. - The three-year yield also jumped as traders priced more central-bank tightening. - Australia joins the U.S., Japan, Germany and U.K. in the global yield surge. DICK'S GETS HIT BY FOOTWEAR - Dick's shares fell more than 25% after earnings. - Earnings, revenue and same-store sales missed expectations. - Foot Locker also disappointed after the acquisition. - Management cited heavier promotions, fewer product launches and discounting of older shoes.     Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? PayPal.Donation.Button({ env: 'production', hosted_button_id: 'JJJHP2GDEJC7J', image: { src: 'https://www.paypalobjects.com/en_US/i/btn/btn_donateCC_LG.gif', alt: 'Donate with PayPal button', title: 'PayPal - The safer, easier way to pay online!' } }).render('#donate-button-2'); THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN for SpaceX (SPCX) Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!   FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Judah Cohen for a discussion focused on weather. Judah is a Director of Seasonal Forecasting at JANUS Research Group and a Research Scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. His work focuses on sub-seasonal to seasonal weather forecasting, with particular expertise in the polar vortex, Arctic climate variability, and the factors that drive winter weather across North America and Europe. We were excited to hear Judah's perspective on the upcoming season, the evolution of weather forecasting, and how new technologies including AI could improve our ability to predict weather further into the future. In our conversation, we explore the evolution of weather forecasting and Dr. Cohen's career studying sub-seasonal to seasonal weather patterns, including the industry's progression from historical analogs and statistical methods to increasingly sophisticated physics-based models. We discuss how satellite observations and expanded global datasets have improved our understanding of the atmosphere, as well as the limitations of historical weather data and where today's models continue to struggle, particularly beyond the traditional one- to two-week forecasting window. Dr. Cohen shared his perspective on the growing role of AI in weather forecasting, the strengths and limitations of current dynamical models, and why better modeling of the interactions between the troposphere, polar vortex, and jet stream could meaningfully improve longer-range forecasts. We also discuss the respective roles of academia, government forecasting centers, and private-sector companies in advancing the next generation of weather modeling. We examine upcoming winter outlooks and the implications of a potentially historic “Super El Niño.” Dr. Cohen explains why El Niño's influence on winter weather is not necessarily linear and cautioned against assuming that an exceptionally strong El Niño guarantees an exceptionally warm winter. We explore his research linking Siberian snow cover to disruptions of the polar vortex and colder conditions in eastern North America as well as the potential for episodic cold and snow even during an otherwise mild winter. We cover the outlook for Europe, where natural gas storage levels make winter weather particularly consequential, and the difficulty of using El Niño alone to reliably forecast European conditions. We also touch on how an unexpected, multi-week cold snap could materially affect natural gas demand and prices, highlighting the significant implications of improving weather forecasting for energy markets and preparedness for extreme winter events. Mike Bradley opened the discussion by noting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell ~600 points this week as investors grappled with higher oil prices and rising U.S. bond yields. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to ~4.8%, while the 30-year reached ~5.25%. With August CPI and PPI reports due later this week, Mike noted that inflation data could play an important role in shaping interest rate policy at the Sept. 16 FOMC meeting. Turning to energy markets, WTI crude oil increased ~$2/bbl to ~$94/bbl amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, with reports of potential explosions on Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal. European natural gas prices also continued higher, reaching ~$26–$27/MMBtu and bringing year-to-date gains to ~180%, as concerns grow over Europe's ability to replenish storage ahead of the winter heating season. Mike wrapped by highlighting the Barclays Energy-Power Conference in New York City, which he is attending this week. Based on his initial meetings, he noted a more constructive tone among companies and investors, with growing optimism around the energy and power outlook into 2027. Veriten Senior Advisor Deborah Byers also joined and added her perspectives and questions throughout the conversation.

Cooper Howard says CPI and PPI are the two biggest metrics to watch on this holiday-shortened market week. He believes the inflation data will pave a clearer path on expectations for the Fed and interest rates. Kevin Gordon adds that if either report comes in hot, the FOMC will very likely hike, especially since the August jobs report came in much stronger than expected. However, Cooper makes the argument that no matter what the Fed decides, we will not enter a "rate hiking cycle."======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about