Podcasts about fomc

Book a call: https://remnantfinance.com/calendarEmail us at info@remnantfinance.com or visit https://remnantfinance.com for more informationFOLLOW REMNANT FINANCEYoutube: @RemnantFinance (https://www.youtube.com/@RemnantFinance)Facebook: @remnantfinance (https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61560694316588)Twitter: @remnantfinance (https://x.com/remnantfinance)TikTok: @RemnantFinanceDon't forget to hit LIKE and SUBSCRIBEIn 1933, a Harvard-trained lawyer walked into Chase National Bank with signed receipts for twenty-seven numbered bars of gold and was told he could not have them. Two days after he sued, a federal grand jury indicted him. He never got the gold back. Hans opens with an update on Brian, who may be home temporarily in September or October but likely stays on active duty orders, then turns to the Treasury's announcement that it is doubling its long end buyback operations from two billion to four billion. The dollar figure is a rounding error against forty trillion in debt. The signal is not, and it is the same move Scott Bessent spent the last two years criticizing Janet Yellen for making.Chapters 00:00 – Opening segment 02:20 – No end in sight and why nobody negotiates with America anymore 06:35 – Reading the macro tape without becoming a permabear 07:55 – The Treasury doubles its long end buybacks 09:15 – The economic equivalent of no new foreign wars 11:50 – Where Hans actually sits on the political spectrum13:10 – Two billion to four billion: the substance of the move 14:05 – Bills, notes, and bonds, and why the distinction matters here 16:35 – Off-the-run long bonds and a disorderly long end 17:35 – What they are buying and what is paying for it 19:00 – One leg of QE, not the money printing leg 20:15 – Yellen's trillion dollar mistake and the two percent mortgage analogy 22:40 – Bessent criticized this exact move, then made it 23:55 – Yield curve control and how far away it actually is 24:25 – Intervening into a record high market with no visible fever 26:00 – The debasement trade and the stock market as pressure release valve 28:30 – The yen intervention and why Japan matters 29:15 – The repo facility and keeping Treasuries out of foreign hands 32:20 – What all three moves have in common 33:30 – Hormuz closed, oil creeping, and an empty petroleum reserve 36:45 – Japan as the roadmap for where this road ends 37:50 – Homeschooling, wristbands, and the safe and inclusive playground 43:35 – Frederick Barber Campbell walks into Chase National Bank 46:05 – The lawsuit, the indictment, and the demurrer 49:50 – When a dollar was a bearer claim on gold 51:55 – Benjamin Strong, the Bank of England, and the boom that had to bust 53:10 – How the Fed was sold to America in 1913 55:50 – Nine thousand banks fail and the money supply drops a third 58:50 – The Fed as an instrument of extraction 01:00:35 – Where America sits in the line, and the prison hierarchy analogy 01:03:50 – Hamilton, specie, and the principle of productive credit 01:06:05 – The bank holiday and the Emergency Banking Act 01:07:45 – Five words added to the Trading with the Enemy Act 01:10:20 – Executive Order 6102 defines hoarding as owning 01:16:20 – The markup from twenty dollars to thirty-five 01:17:35 – The Gold Reserve Act and the Exchange Stabilization Fund 01:18:35 – Marriner Eccles and the fight over the lever of power 01:21:25 – Carter Glass fights the bill he made possible 01:22:30 – The FOMC is created and open market operations take over 01:24:45 – Killing the regional discount rate and the governor it provided 01:27:30 – Half a Keynesian equation with no brakes on the other sideKey TakeawaysThe size of the buyback is not the story. Doubling from two billion to four billion per operation is meaningless against forty trillion in debt. What matters is that the Treasury told the market, in a public press release, that it will step in and buy the long end when demand thins out. 

Another trading week is in the books... And today, we may have gotten our clearest look yet at how Kevin Warsh intends to run the Federal Reserve. In his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed Chairman, Warsh delivered a message Wall Street had been waiting for—giving investors important insight into how he views inflation, interest rates, employment, artificial intelligence and the future direction of monetary policy. And there was one message that came through loud and clear: The fight against inflation isn't over. Warsh reiterated that the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation objective is a firm target, pushed back against the idea that recent softer inflation readings necessarily represent a meaningful change in trend, and warned that if inflation isn't moving toward that objective quickly enough... The Fed still has "work to do." Markets immediately took notice. Treasury yields moved higher, the dollar strengthened, and expectations for another potential interest-rate hike increased as traders digested what Warsh's comments could mean for the September FOMC meeting. But today's speech went much deeper than simply "rates up or rates down." We'll break down: Warsh's inflation warning – Why price stability appears to be the Fed's predominant concern right now Interest rates – Did Warsh just open the door wider to another rate hike? The labor market – Why Warsh doesn't appear convinced that softer employment data automatically means the economy is weakening The death of forward guidance? – Warsh wants a "quieter Fed" that spends less time telling Wall Street what it intends to do next AI and productivity – Why artificial intelligence could dramatically alter economic growth, employment and ultimately monetary policy The bond market – What today's move in Treasury yields tells us about how investors interpreted the speech Stocks & risk assets – What a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve could mean for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, technology and crypto September's FOMC meeting – What traders should be watching between now and the next rate decision One of the most fascinating parts of Warsh's message may be his philosophy toward the relationship between the Federal Reserve and Wall Street. For years, traders have parsed every Fed speech looking for clues about the central bank's next move. Warsh appears to want to change that. His argument is essentially that markets shouldn't be constantly looking to the Federal Reserve for their next trade. That's a significant philosophical shift. Less forward guidance. More dependence on actual economic data. And potentially a lot more uncertainty for traders. That's why today's Jackson Hole speech could ultimately prove much more important than one interest-rate decision. It gave us a glimpse into the Warsh Federal Reserve playbook. For additional research, read Kevin Warsh's official Jackson Hole remarks and visit the Federal Reserve's FOMC page for upcoming monetary-policy decisions. Listen now:

Investors are keeping a close eye on Jackson Hole for signals on the economic outlook and the path for rates. Our Chief U.S. economist Michael Gapen joins Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach to discuss whether markets get what they want—or what the Fed needs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matt Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Matt Hornbach: Today, we'll be discussing the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium and Chairman Warsh's opening remarks. It's Thursday, August 27th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, let's get right into it and talk about the upcoming opening remarks by Chairman Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium that will be delivered to the public at 10 am tomorrow, Friday. How are you thinking about what to expect from those opening remarks? Michael Gapen: Well, historically, and by historically, I mean in a post-2008-2009 world, Jackson Hole has been used, not every year, but frequently as a venue to communicate to markets. The longest gap on the Fed's meeting calendar is between the July and September meetings. So, Jackson Hole falls between that and provides a useful opportunity to communicate what might be coming. That's what's normally been done. Warsh has repeatedly stated he wants the Fed to talk less and communicate less and say less. So, I don't think we will see or hear, in this case, a lot about his views about how the economy is operating today and how monetary policy may be conducted into year-end. So, I don't think we'll hear a lot about, say, the December; the outlook for the economy from September to December, and what it might imply for interest rate policy or balance sheet policy. So, little in the way of near-term forward guidance. I do think, however, he did say in the July press conference that the venue would be good to tackle some of these big questions that he has talked about, that he's created these task forces for. So, whether it is the balance sheet or the inflation framework, or communication or AI and productivity or data quality and so forth. This would provide, I think, a reasonable opportunity for him to start talking about that. I don't think maybe we'll get a lot of conclusions. But I would look for commentary that's more in the question; or in the spirit of those big questions and less about the near-term conduct of policy.So maybe not what markets want, but this is what markets will get. Matt Hornbach: Just rewinding a bit, the conference itself is on a somewhat of a niche topic. What exactly is the conference about? And, in terms of the papers that get released at the conference, do you have any sense as to where they might be headed? Michael Gapen: So, the topic of this conference, the economic symposium, as you noted, is Financial Innovation: [its] Implications for [the] Payments [system] and [monetary] Policy. So, I would expect there to be a lot of sessions for things like central bank digital currencies or stable coins or Bitcoins. Near money type innovation that has happened in recent years, which leads to things like competition for deposits from the non-financial sector vis-a-vis the financial sector. So, a competition of near moneyness to money, if you will. Its implications for the interaction between the non-financial system and the financial system, competition for deposits. Does it create risks around financial disintermediation? And therefore, how might the regulatory environment and monetary policy work in that world? So little more, I'll call it, esoteric and maybe arm's length from the day-to-day conduct of policy. But I would look at the speeches probably in that vein. Deposit competition, financial market stability, and what kind of regulatory framework might you need to ensure we can still conduct policy effectively in that world. Matt Hornbach: Sounds like an exciting set of papers… Michael Gapen: Yes. Yes. Matt Hornbach: … for professors to read through. Michael Gapen: This is why they don't often leak the schedule too far in advance, right? We all might decide not to listen. Matt Hornbach: Indeed. Well, it is the end of August, and people are probably still on holiday here and there… Michael Gapen: I'm doing my best, but you called me in today. Matt Hornbach: Yeah, the least I could do. So, you did mention that this might be an opportunity for Chairman Warsh to maybe spotlight a bit these task forces and the topics that they're tackling, one of which is the inflation framework. And that word framework, I think, is important because the investors that we've been speaking with are frustrated that the Fed has not really laid out a framework – for monetary policymaking in this new era of Chairman Warsh, and his leadership at the Fed. So, I'm curious, if we're not going to get forward guidance on monetary policy and what will happen at the next meeting. And we're also not going to get much forward guidance on the framework that the Fed is using to decide on what to do with short-term interest rates. What are we meant to think about the framework? Michael Gapen: Yeah, I think ultimately, of course, we're going to need to know this, and this is what economists would refer to as the ‘difference between forward guidance and the "reaction function." So, the framework is really, you've got a set of tools, how do you intend to use them to achieve your objectives? A conventional Fed would say, "Well, if interest rates are low and inflation's too high, then we should raise rates," right? So high inflation brings high interest rates, low inflation brings low interest rates. All else equal, there's still the employment side of the mandate, of course. And the market had that view, at least initially, right? As we were in the June-July period and Warsh was talking hawkishly, the curve generally flattened. Expectations for front-end yields moved higher, and inflation-fighting credibility maybe kept the back end stable or brought the back end down. So, you could argue the markets looked at Warsh as maybe bringing a conventional reaction function and a conventional framework. But in the June and July FOMC meeting and in conversations with the press during the press conferences, Warsh – I don't want to say backtracked. He just didn't validate that and did say that we will achieve price stability. Didn't quite say how he would use the tools to do that. And even suggested maybe interest rates weren't the primary mechanism with which to influence, create, deliver price stability. So, the curve then steepened out. So, I think the market is wondering what Fed chair we have and what his reaction function is? And if inflation's running hot, is it an interest rate answer or is it a balance sheet answer? I'd also just add one last thing, Matt, is it makes a difference what the rest of the 18 people on the FOMC think. [Be]cause I think you would agree, and I'll put forward right now, I think they have a largely conventional view. Half of the committee thought it was time to raise rates in June. So, we have a balance between not knowing the chair's framework and having to intuit it. Or hope that we hear more. But then also knowing the other 18 who could band together and have greater voting power act in a largely conventional framework. I think that's the debate and the dilemma that we're all dealing with. Matt Hornbach: Yeah, I think investors, have certainly expressed frustration about the lack of guidance in any form or fashion. Perhaps with the exception of the balance sheet; we have a general idea that the balance sheet will be smaller in the future. And we have a sense from what Chairman Warsh has said in front of the House of Representatives during his semi-annual testimony that any changes would happen gradually over time. But, in terms of the pricing of the July meeting, and what happened at the July meeting, investors were very disappointed that the Fed did not go ahead and raise rates in July. Now, the market was only assigning about a one in three odds of a rate hike in July. And so, the fact that the Fed did not go ahead and raise interest rates in July was not a surprise in the sense of market pricing. But I do sense that investors were frustrated; that because they didn't get much forward guidance going into the July meeting, that the market might not have priced more probability on a July rate hike because the Fed, in fact, did not signal that they were leaning in that direction. But I see it as somewhat ironic because it seems to me, and I'd like to get your view on this. It seems to me that Chairman Warsh doesn't want to provide that type of specificity. He'd rather have the markets tell him what to do at an upcoming meeting, as opposed to him telling markets what to do at an upcoming meeting. How do you think about that? Michael Gapen: Oh, I think it's… [It] strains credibility to think that by saying nothing, you get the market's interpretation of the economy, data, and events – without the market thinking what the Fed thinks about it. I don't think that there's a world where you get the unvarnished market expectation independent of the Fed. So, I don't personally agree in the analogy of the market should play the ball and not the referee. The Fed is not a referee in markets. The Fed is a player in markets. Monetary policy acts through financial markets to achieve a set of financial conditions to deliver price stability and maximum employment. So, the Fed and markets are on the field at the same time. The Fed, in some ways, is the 800-pound gorilla on the field at the same time. So, everybody else on the field has to know what the gorilla is doing in order to do what they're supposed to do. Yes, there's always some circularity between Fed communication and market reaction to that. But I think that's natural and normal and important in making monetary policy effective – meaning it has to transmit through financial markets. And so, you could diminish the effectiveness of monetary policy if you don't tell the market what, at least what your framework is and what your reaction function is. And the tools that you intend to use and how you would intend to use them. Then the market could be an inefficient transmitter of monetary policy. So, I disagree with the notion that by saying less, the Fed learns more. But that's my view. I'm one of many. That's my opinion. The chair obviously has a different view. Matt Hornbach: Well, I can certainly understand not wanting to be the referee, especially after what we saw at the World Cup. There were a couple of games where the referee… Michael Gapen: And nobody likes the referee. At least half the people are upset with the referee. Matt Hornbach: Indeed. Okay. So, Mike, I think we're going to leave it there. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Matt. Matt Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Peter Schiff breaks down the Treasury's panic move to rescue the bond market, the $40 trillion debt milestone, and gold's $185 reversal day.This episode is sponsored by Noom. The Noom GLP-1 Program starts at $39 and is delivered to your door in as little as seven days. Go to https://noom.com to learn more.This episode is also sponsored by Ground News. Go to http://groundnews.com/schiff to get 40% off the unlimited access Vantage plan and unlock world-wide perspectives on the stories shaping our world.The Treasury just doubled its bond buybacks. Peter Schiff says that's the government admitting the bond market is broken.On the same day the national debt topped $40 trillion, the Treasury announced it is doubling its long-term bond buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion... buying the bonds everybody else is selling, and funding it by issuing more short-term debt. Peter calls it what it is: a panic move, a Hail Mary to suppress rising yields after the 30-year hit 5.3%, its highest in over 19 years. Refinancing debt locked in at a 3.44% average coupon with 4% T-bills makes no financial sense, which is exactly why it's happening... the government is scared, not stupid.The market rendered its verdict immediately. Gold reversed off a $185 rally to close above $4,500, silver cleared $66, and the miners surged 8-12%, while hawkish FOMC minutes were shrugged off entirely. Peter explains why this Treasury version of Operation Twist forces the Fed to follow with real QE... a program that will have to dwarf 2008's... why Bitcoin's pop above $70,000 is built on hope, and why the housing data shows the panic is justified.Chapters:00:00 Treasury Panic Move01:05 Bond Yields Hit New Highs02:58 Debt Explosion Politics07:00 Treasury Buyback Twist10:23 QE Next And Fed Cornered16:04 Hawkish Minutes Gold Surge24:03 Markets React Unevenly24:20 Dollar Drops Oil Jumps25:08 Fed Inflation Bind26:30 Debt Era Comparison27:40 Jobs Data Media Spin29:17 Bitcoin Versus Metals31:19 Housing Slump Mortgages33:59 Tariffs Canada Trade37:50 Buybacks Won't Work42:26 QE Addiction Ahead44:34 Boat Update FarewellFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Blinds.com and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.blinds.com* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for $255 off: https://sleep.me* Check out Factor and use my code gold50off for a great deal: https://www.factor75.com* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/GOLD for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Pending home sales fell 2.3% in July with declines in every region, the lowest level since January. I break down what that means for mortgage rates, oil prices, and the Fed heading into today's FOMC minutes.In today's episode I cover:

European futures are set to start in the green after snapping a four-week winning streak. Investors are anticipating UK employment and inflation data, flash PMIs and the latest FOMC meeting minutes later this week. The U.S.-Iran MOU expires later today with the impasse forcing President Trump to concede Americans will have to contend with higher fuel prices. Heatwaves cause wildfires in Belgium while the level of the Rhine in Germany falls to a new record low. Berkshire Hathaway increases its stake in Alphabet. The tech giant is now its third-largest holding. Form 13F filings in the U.S. reveal a big tech ‘tug-of-war' among institutional investors. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dave Popple, PhD, founder and managing director of Psynet Group, dives into the psychology driving the Fed, how new leadership is impacting FOMC messaging and why the market craves a “clean answer” from the Fed chair and economic data points. Dave also explains the “self states” that govern human decision making and the psychology behind groups coming to a consensus.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

S&P 500 futures rose after weaker US labor readings coincided with a pullback in Treasury yields, signaling easier financial conditions. Investors read the softer jobs data as easing inflation pressure, which can support equities and raise expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Lower yields influence bank pricing tied to the prime rate and affect SBA 7(a) loans, venture debt terms, and corporate bond issuance. Investment banks may see improved conditions for new high-yield and investment-grade offerings if volatility stays contained. Founders should stress test revenue, adjust hiring, and evaluate refinancing or extending maturities while monitoring BLS reports, CPI, PCE, and upcoming FOMC communications.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down the week across mortgages, rates, and precious metals. He opens with United Wholesale Mortgage, explaining why he believes Matt Ishbia should resign after the company hedged the balance sheet of an acquisition target it didn't own and never won — a misstep that produced a six hundred million dollar loss and forced a rescue from Oak Tree on onerous terms that leave common shareholders at the back of the line. Chris contrasts that with Rocket's standout quarter and lays out his broader housing view: investment banks hold this market together until the IPO fees are booked, then step back, setting up a potential correction next year and a general decline in home prices of ten to twenty percent by 2028. From there the conversation turns to the return of financial repression — short-end yields pushed down while the long end reacts to deficits and inflation — and why, with debt approaching forty trillion, he considers Fed independence a fiction and the Treasury the dog to the Fed's tail. Chris also unpacks the Bank of Japan's thirty-day repo with the Fed, why it lit a fire under gold and silver, and David Kotok's idea of using euro-denominated US credit default swaps to benchmark gold. He closes on taxing wealth over income, the erosion of fiscal credibility, and his gold book research into thirteen hundred years of Byzantine monetary stability.Thank you to our sponsor, Monetary Metals. Learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/THEWRAP/Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Seeing Around Corners book: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/product-page/seeing-around-corners-achieving-success-in-business-and-life-hardcoverUse the code TheWrap2026 for 25% off your first year of The Institutional Risk Analyst https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/plans-pricingTimestamps:0:00 — Intro1:08 — Why Matt Ishbia should resign from UWM2:30 — The Oak Tree rescue and what it means for shareholders3:31 — Mortgage earnings: PennyMac, loanDepot, Rocket4:23 — Is UWM going to be sold?5:43 — Health of the broader mortgage industry6:50 — Seven percent rates and where volume is coming from7:30 — What the Fed does next, and the long end8:20 — "Misery on the eights" — is the timeline accelerating?9:20 — Housing correction: 10–20% by 202810:40 — The return of financial repression12:00 — Why the Treasury benefits, and the shift to T-bills13:06 — "The Treasury is the dog, the Fed is the tail"13:40 — The dollar, foreign central banks, and gold reserves14:20 — The Bank of Japan repo transaction explained15:14 — What Warsh does if the FOMC wants a hike16:30 — Inflation, diesel exports, and the energy squeeze17:34 — David Kotok on benchmarking gold with credit default swaps18:40 — Why fiscal fear flows into gold19:30 — How far away is a US debt restructuring?21:04 — Taxing wealth instead of income22:42 — What cutting the deficit would actually do to rates25:15 — Back to the BOJ: why it forced gold and silver higher28:00 — What if Japan doesn't take the bonds back?28:48 — Foreign central banks are selling Treasuries29:47 — Does the US care about gold the way the rest of the world does?32:10 — Bessent and the K-shaped economy33:12 — Housekeeping: viewer question episode33:50 — Parting thoughts

Chair Warsh has communicated very little at his first two press conferences, aiming to increase policy flexibility and free markets to “play the ball, not the referee.” This is a marked change from his predecessors who viewed frequent communication as a form of transparency and helpful guidance. Some of Warsh's desired reforms, however, are subject to FOMC approval and cannot be implemented unilaterally. In this episode, we talk with Narayana Kocherlakota, former President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, about how the Fed approached communication through the GFC, the process for reforming FOMC procedures, and the optimal balance between monetary policy flexibility and guidance. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial's Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what's moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

This week, our Global FX Strategists assess the impact NFP for the dollar in the wake of last week's FOMC outcome and JPY intervention. We also expand on the carry trade's resilience despite yen vol, and conclude with the latest news from the Euro bloc of currencies.    Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Antonin Delair, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy   This podcast was recorded on 07 August 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related reports at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5385231-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5391832-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5396957-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5394775-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Please join Sphia Salim in conversation with Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana and Meghan Swiber post-payrolls and US Treasury refunding. Given the limited guidance at last week's FOMC meeting and resulting US curve steepening, data has become an even stronger focal point for markets. We will discuss the implication of the NFP report for Fed speak, the September decision and US rates. We will also highlight any key takeaways from the Wednesday US Treasury refunding announcement. The call took place at 10am ET, 3pm BST, 4pm CET on Friday 7th Aug.   Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.

As high gas costs pile up for drivers, Big Oil is getting jumpy. That's because one way to bring prices down, at least temporarily, is an oil export ban. The Trump administration hasn't signaled support for such a ban, but oil firms are being proactive, by lobbying the White House to find alternatives. Also in this episode: CEOs are sour on this economy, a major university invests big in artificial intelligence, and we analyze the difference between Fed Chair Warsh and former Fed Chair Powell's public statements.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Big oil is not up for another export banCan you spot the difference between Warsh and Powell's FOMC statements?Why you should care about CEOs' confidence in the economyThe FIRE movement: How soon can I quit?USC pushes to expand AI research with $200 million gift

As high gas costs pile up for drivers, Big Oil is getting jumpy. That's because one way to bring prices down, at least temporarily, is an oil export ban. The Trump administration hasn't signaled support for such a ban, but oil firms are being proactive, by lobbying the White House to find alternatives. Also in this episode: CEOs are sour on this economy, a major university invests big in artificial intelligence, and we analyze the difference between Fed Chair Warsh and former Fed Chair Powell's public statements.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.Read the stories in today's episode:Big oil is not up for another export banCan you spot the difference between Warsh and Powell's FOMC statements?Why you should care about CEOs' confidence in the economyThe FIRE movement: How soon can I quit?USC pushes to expand AI research with $200 million gift

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT On this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi's prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi's research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY. -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just hinted a September rate hike could be on the table, and Trump might be pushing back hard. We break down what a hike would mean for Bitcoin, stablecoins, and risk assets, plus how it collides with the yen carry trade and a weakening dollar. Is the Fed about to shake the markets right as crypto tries to recover?~This episode is sponsored by iTrust Capital~iTrustCapital | Get $100 Funding Reward + No Monthly Fees when you sign up using our custom link! ➜ https://bit.ly/iTrustPaul00:00 intro00:10 Sponsor: iTrust Capital00:45 Trump economy speech03:00 Rate hike in September?03:40 BoA: 3 rate hikes this year05:00 Trump calls Warsh06:00 Bessent goes after journalists06:50 CNBC: Expect 2 rate hikes this year08:10 Oil timeline08:30 Rate hike odds09:00 S&P new highs09:20 CNBC: Next stop 8,000?10:50 Jamie Dimon: Quick disruption11:30 Leopold is back!12:15 Leopold blowup was a warning13:20 Tom Lee: Deleveraging is what makes bottoms14:20 CASHCAT listing + chart15:00 Massive Yen shorting15:40 Andre Jikh: Bessent note is psychological weapon17:20 Iran deal soon?17:50 Mark Cudmore: Makes sense for gold to move higher19:00 China rotating into gold19:45 CLARITY not happening this year20:30 Russia beat us~Fed Signal Terrifies Market

Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell discuss the latest market movements driving the S&P 500 to new all-time highs on this Wise Investor Segment. They unpack the impact of the recent FOMC meeting, where interest rates were held steady, and analyze how geopolitical tensions and negotiations are driving down global oil prices. The hosts also explore the realities of the real estate market, noting that high mortgage rates are squeezing retail buyers while creative financing remains the primary path forward for commercial investors.Additionally, the hosts share actionable investment strategies, taking a close look at massive earnings jumps from AI-driven companies like Palantir, and discussing the long-term outlook for space exploration and robotics equities. They also reveal the dangers of over-leveraging by exploring the rapid liquidation of Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund by Citadel, and provide critical advice on how to vet financial advisors using public SEC disclosures to uncover hidden fees.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDS&P 500 all-time highs and the macroeconomic forces behind the market rallyPalantir's explosive earnings and the technical mechanics of stock gap fillingFederal Reserve rate hold decisions and Kevin Warsh's economic commentaryThe impact of Middle East negotiations on global oil prices and inflationMicroStrategy's Bitcoin sell-off and Michael Saylor's corporate historyThe liquidation of Leopold Aschenbrenner's multi-billion dollar hedge fund by CitadelWhy traditional financial advisory firms charge exorbitant fees for generic mutual fundsUsing the SEC Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website to vet financial plannersKEY TAKEAWAYSLeverage in investing can wipe out incredible gains; even a portfolio up over a thousand percent can be liquidated entirely if over-leveraged during market volatility.High-net-worth investors view taxes as a simple byproduct of making money, rather than avoiding them at the cost of liquidity and complex financial gymnastics.The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits near 6.78%, making real estate entry difficult for retail buyers without creative financing or substantial equity.Investors should verify a financial advisor's fiduciary status and disclosure history through the SEC's public database to avoid bad actors and high-fee, non-discretionary models.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONImagos Income Fund: Text "INCOME" or "DEALS" to 844-447-1555 to learn more about Matty A's private debt fund targeting 10% fixed returns paid out monthly.Visit skylineocresidences.com to discover luxury condo ownership at Skyline OC, Orange County's tallest residential tower.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTTOn this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi's prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi's research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY.--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: The COLDCARD hack explained — the first time a major self-custody device has been compromised at scale, and what you need to know Why this hack is different from Mt. Gox, Bitfinex, and FTX and why it matters more for everyday Bitcoiners Strategy confirms it will no longer put 100% of capital raises into Bitcoin — here's what that actually means Three Fed members voted to raise rates, the most divided the FOMC has been in a decade over rate hikes A personal note on transparency, accountability, and my emergency episode on the COLDCARD hack (released on Friday, July 31) Coinkite advisory: https://blog.coinkite.com/coldcard-mk3-seed-generation-warning/  ---- Ledn has a perfect track record protecting over $11 billion in client value through every market cycle since 2018. And Tether Gold is now live on Ledn, giving you two of the most verifiably scarce, non-sovereign assets ever created, held side by side. Hard assets. Real flexibility. One platform. Get .25% off your first bitcoin-backed loan: https://www.Ledn.io/natalie ---- Order Natalie's new book "Bitcoin is For Everyone," a simple introduction to Bitcoin and what's broken in our current financial system: https://amzn.to/3WzFzfU  ---- Upcoming Events: The best time to plan for Bitcoin 2027 is right now. Early bird tickets are live — grab the lowest pricing available and use code HODL for 10% off: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2027?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=HODL  ---- This podcast is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as official investment advice. Always do your own research.

半導體與記憶體成為本波市場賣壓重心，即使科技巨頭財報陸續登場，仍出現「財報優、股價跌」的反應。與此同時，FOMC 會後美債殖利率再度走高，中東局勢反覆再次推升油價。 本集邀請美國研究員 Ralice 與台灣研究員 Jat，解析 Warsh 主持下的聯準會政策轉向，以及 Microsoft、Meta、Alphabet、Tesla 最新財報，掌握 AI 變現、資本支出與自由現金流轉弱的關鍵訊號。

Michael Strain of the American Enterprise Institute and colleague Matt Colyar join the Inside Economics crew to unpack a blockbuster week for the U.S. economy. A bizarre FOMC meeting, fresh GDP and inflation data, new readings on consumers, and financial market gyrations offered plenty to discuss. The group debates what it all means, where the economy is likely to head from here, and of course, play the numbers game. Guest: Michael Strain, Director of Economic Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute Hosts: Mark Zandi – Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, Cris deRitis – Deputy Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics, and Marisa DiNatale – Senior Director - Head of Global Forecasting, Moody's Analytics Follow Mark Zandi on 'X' and BlueSky @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis on LinkedIn, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn Questions or Comments, please email us at InsideEconomics@moodys.com. We would love to hear from you. To stay informed and follow the insights of Moody's Analytics economists, visit Economic View. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, our Global FX Strategists unpack the fallout from the FOMC for the dollar, as well as implications from another round of Japan FX intervention against a BoJ hold. We also look at AUD's reaction to recent local data and implications from the BoE meeting for GBP.   Speakers: Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy Junya Tanase, Global FX Strategy Ben Jarman, Global Economics, Rates & FX Strategy Kunj Padh, Global FX Strategy    This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5388109-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5390436-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

The Fed talked tough and did nothing. The 30-year hit a 20-year high. The Dow fell 1,100 points. Gold was the only thing left standing.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmTonight's episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, exactly where they were before Kevin Warsh took over, despite a 30% market-priced chance of a hike and three FOMC members dissenting in favor of one. Peter Schiff breaks down a press conference where Warsh declared "no tolerance" for inflation above 2% while doing nothing about it, hiding behind the excuse that the Fed "doesn't have a magic wand." Nobody asked for magic, just for the Fed to use the tools it actually has: higher rates, a smaller balance sheet, slower money supply growth. Warsh delivered none of them, and Schiff argues he made the same choice as his predecessors. Inflation is a choice, and the Fed chose it again.The markets rendered their verdict immediately. The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.22%, its highest in roughly 20 years, the Dow fell 2.2% or about 1,100 points to close on the lows, and the Nasdaq 100 is now down over 3% on the week as the air keeps coming out of the AI bubble, with Meta down 10% after missing earnings and SanDisk off 30% in three days. Gold told the real story: it closed up $40 at 4,070 and never broke 4,000, because rising yields driven by a loss of confidence in the Fed are bullish for gold, not bearish. Schiff calls gold the last safe haven standing. He also covers consumer confidence at a five-year low, a $101.5 billion June trade deficit proving the tariffs accomplished nothing, and why Mamdani's government-run grocery stores will empty shelves, bankrupt private grocers in the poorest neighborhoods, and recreate Soviet bread lines in New York City.Chapters:00:00 Debt Bubble Reality00:37 Fed Holds Rates Steady03:34 Two Percent Target Doubts16:05 Q&A Exposes Inaction27:38 Markets React Bonds Stocks Gold31:45 Yields and Gold Misread35:02 Gold Safe Haven Case37:40 Fed Fallout and Data43:12 NYC Government Grocers55:42 Capitalism and Wrap UpFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Jim Bianco. They will discuss this weeks FOMC meeting. https://bit.ly/4wz7e16   ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://secure.bigpicturetrading.com/membership/signup/fOY4YJYX  

Live reaction to the most uncertain FOMC meeting in years. What the markets are doing before and after. The two competing views driving the uncertainty. Any surprises in the Fed statements (YES!). Yields. Curves. TIPS. Swaps. All the relevant info. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here https://eurodollar-university.com/home-page----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

The Federal Reserve, under Kevin Warsh, has decided to keep interest rates steady. Former Fed vice chairman Roger Ferguson discusses the decision and the FOMC member dissents. After Dr. Anthony Fauci's testimony before the Senate Homeland Security Committee, Committee Chair Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) discusses his plan to consider holding Dr. Fauci in contempt for exercising his Fifth Amendment rights 111 times throughout the hearing. CNBC's Dan Murphy reports on the latest strikes between the U.S. and Iran, and Amos Hochstein, former White House Senior Advisor for President Biden, discusses strategies in regional conflict and its impact on global energy.     Roger Ferguson - 5:05 Sen. Rand Paul - 21:11 Dan Murphy - 37:03 Amos Hochstein - 42:50   In this episode: Rand Paul, @SenRandPaul Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie   Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian from Santiment joined me to review the crypto market metrics for Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Cardano, and Solana.

Crypto News: Democrats and the Banks continue to work on Clarity Act compromises. Fed leaves rates unchanged and Bitcoin chops sideways. BNY targets $8.6 trillion transfer agency market on blockchain rails.

Today, a look at the market's concern that this Fed isn't determined to get ahead of inflation and the impact on US treasury yields, which spooked market sentiment broadly in the US yesterday. Elsewhere, Microsoft's strong earnings report after the close is doing what it can to stabilize risk sentiment, even as the market soured further on Meta on its earnings call. Today and tomorrow feel high stakes with the negative shift in sentiment after the important FOMC pivot point, and Apple and Amazon are reporting after the close today. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links WSJ Fed reporter (no longer whisperer?) Nick Timiraos with a good quick take on the contradictory messages and takeaways from this FOMC meeting. Are the memory prices just too darn high? FTAlphaville takes a look. ArsTechnica reports that Anthropic's Mythos is finding bugs faster than Microsoft can fix them. Mike Green with a forensic investigation of the pump in semiconductor stocks in Q2 and to what degree leveraged ETFs were to blame (Behind paywall, but can be read for free as a one-off).  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

LIVE FOMC: Everything changes today as the Federal Reserve's decision could send Bitcoin, crypto, and altcoins into major volatility. Join us live for breaking crypto news, FOMC analysis, and what today's announcement means for the Bitcoin price, Ethereum, XRP, and the entire crypto market. Join - https://www.skool.com/discovercrypto/about ​​If you have ever made money watching this channel, we need your help! Join the community to help us create the best Crypto education platform on the planet!  Blofin - https://partner.blofin.com/d/DiscoverCrypto Toobit - https://www.toobit.com/t/discovercrypto

Are investors overreacting to rising credit spreads among the largest AI hyperscalers? As companies like Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, and Oracle continue borrowing heavily to fund massive AI infrastructure, headlines are warning of "carnage" in hyperscaler credit markets. But does wider credit spread really signal financial trouble—or simply reflect unprecedented capital spending? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz examine what credit default swaps (CDS), bond spreads, and AI capital expenditures are actually telling investors. We'll separate sensational headlines from market reality, and explore whether this is a genuine warning sign or another example of fear outrunning the fundamentals. 0:00 INTRO 1:01 - Markets Sell of as Margins Unwind 3:48 - What Happens When Moving Averages Are Broken 7:22 - Yields Respond to FOMC 9:42 - What Walsh Didn't Say... 14:01 - Four Things (he did say) 16:01 - No Support for Rate Hikes in Slowing Economy 21:26 - Momentum is the Market Driver (and it's unwinding) 23:24 - Why the 2% Inflation Target? 27:09 - Google vs Microsoft Earnings & Market Responses 30:25 - Hyperscalers & Credit Spreads 36:34 - Oracle is the Problem Child 37:42 - Market Price Narratives are not Realistic 39:42 - The Importance of Risk Management Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/lsx5FwAF_mQ ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Carnage In Hyperscaler Credit: Really?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/carnage-in-hyperscaler-credit-really/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Markets Consolidate as Sector Rotation Strengthens," https://youtu.be/pG8vxTC6oco ------- Watch our previous show, "Will the Fed Meeting Matter?" https://youtube.com/live/NXuTqIZToX0 ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #MomentumStocks #MarketOutlook #ArtificialIntelligence #Investing #TechStocks #PortfolioManagement

Danielle DiMartino Booth breaks down a contentious FOMC meeting where new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady over three dissents, arguing the "good family fight" reflects a real fault line between district bank presidents and governors rather than idle disagreement. She reads Warsh as deliberately dismantling forward guidance, pushing the Fed to stop acting as the market's referee, and leaning toward a trimmed-mean view of inflation while insisting the 2% target stays non-negotiable. Beneath the policy debate, she sees an economy propped up almost entirely by the top 10% and the AI investment boom, with mounting cracks underneath: widening CCC high-yield spreads, bankruptcies at 15-year highs, record apartment concessions on luxury units, softening wage growth, and falling freight demand across trucking and ocean shipping. Her core worry is that if the top of the K "stutters" — as the AI bubble deflates or the wealth effect fades — the pain trickles down onto an already-struggling bottom half, and she's positioning around gold as credit conditions tighten.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: Danielle's Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/dimartinobooth Substack: https://dimartinobooth.substack.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@DanielleDiMartinoBoothQIFed Up: https://www.amazon.com/Fed-Up-Insiders-Federal-Reserve/dp/0735211655Timestamps: 00:00 — Intro and welcome00:35 — Immediate take on the FOMC hold with three dissenters; Warsh's "robust discussion" and four questions02:42 — Is it a deeper split? Waller standing with Warsh; district bank presidents vs. governors03:48 — Why strategists are throwing a "hissy fit"; abandoning forward guidance, Fed stepping back as referee05:01 — The 2% inflation target described as non-negotiable05:47 — Did it make sense to hold? The five shocks, "team transitory" slip, trimmed-mean inflation07:13 — Is the door open for a September hike?08:53 — Kalshi prediction-market odds for September (53% hike / 45% hold)09:57 — Market reaction; NASDAQ's late-day fall off a cliff11:52 — Why the FOMC minutes may be the real story12:20 — Economy assessment via alternative data: waste-management volumes, GDP, Indeed wages14:38 — How inflation should really be measured; P&G, purchasing power, World Cup hiring16:09 — Cracks emerging: CCC high-yield spreads, 15-year-high bankruptcies, apartment concessions18:52 — The K-shaped economy, the wealth effect, and international travel as a bellwether21:01 — Does she agree with the hold? Her public call for a hike21:52 — The bond market has done the tightening for the Fed22:11 — The move in gold vs. Bitcoin, and what it signals about credit23:07 — More breakage coming in credit; distressed debt exchanges as "polite" Chapter 1124:29 — What investors are missing: truck stops, ocean freight, inventory restocking, Austria/BMW29:32 — What she's watching into September; tax refunds, World Cup aftermath, the top of the K32:25 — Parting thoughts

Tony Zhang, Jessica Noviskis and Rich Excell are back to talk about the macro that matters! This time, it is all about the FOMC - is the bond market already giving up on Chairman Warsh? What does that mean for stocks? Will investors switch at some level? It is also about earnings - they have been off the charts, so why aren't stocks higher?  The gang touches on all of this.  Make sure you reach out to cfachicago.org to get your CE credits after you listen  

A day after the Dow's worst day in 15 months, the market is weighing the Fed's rate hold as three FOMC members voted for rate hikes. Jenny Horne walks through the latest Fed commentary along with the latest GDP and inflation data.On the earnings front, analysts are boosting their price targets after Microsoft (MSFT) saw Azure revenue pass $100B even as it plans $175B in capex spending. While Microsoft is being rewarded for its A.I. plans, Meta Platforms (META) is being punished for reiterating its capex spending, leading analysts to cut their price targets.A day after the Dow's worst day in 15 months, the market is weighing the Fed's rate hold as three FOMC members voted for rate hikes. Jenny Horne walks through the latest Fed commentary along with the latest GDP and inflation data.On the earnings front, analysts are boosting their price targets after Microsoft (MSFT) saw Azure revenue pass $100B even as it plans $175B in capex spending. While Microsoft is being rewarded for its A.I. plans, Meta Platforms (META) is being punished for reiterating its capex spending, leading analysts to cut their price targets.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab says the lack of movement in cap-weighted indexes is masking major moves beneath the surface, with a breakdown in momentum and a rotation away from megacaps and semiconductors. Gordon says the fact that the market has held up is a positive sign, and also analyzes the bond market's reaction to this week's FOMC meeting.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Matty A. and Ryan Breedwell dive into a packed week for the financial markets, starting with predictions for the upcoming FOMC rate decision and the impact of the ongoing Iran conflict on global oil prices. They explore how inflation and geopolitical tensions are keeping the S&P 500 range-bound, while highlighting crucial earnings reports from major AI and semiconductor companies like SanDisk, Seagate, and Nvidia.The hosts also analyze the recent spike in United States real estate foreclosures, breaking down why record-high homeowner equity and supply shortages mean a housing crash is highly unlikely. Finally, the conversation shifts to digital assets, discussing the Crypto Clarity Act, the regulatory threat to meme coins, and how tokenization could soon reshape institutional finance.KEY TOPICS DISCUSSEDFOMC rate hike probabilities and Citadel's surprise hike prediction.Impact of the Iran conflict on global oil prices and WTI trends.Semiconductor stock pullbacks and AI data storage investments.Q2 tech earnings expectations for Meta, Apple, and Microsoft.Analysis of rising United States real estate foreclosures compared to 2019.Record homeowner equity and the national housing supply shortage.The Crypto Clarity Act and the future of real world asset tokenization.Regulatory crackdowns on meme coin markets and platforms like PumpFun.KEY TAKEAWAYSA surprise FOMC rate hike is highly unlikely given current market conditions, despite some hawkish institutional forecasts.Geopolitical energy shocks are being digested faster by the market, with oil prices retreating sharply after recent spikes.Semiconductor and memory storage companies present strong buy opportunities as they continue to beat earnings despite broader tech sector pullbacks.The current real estate market is insulated from a crash due to a massive 11 trillion dollars in tappable equity and pervasive sub-6 percent mortgage rates.The impending Crypto Clarity Act will likely eliminate unregulated meme coin exchanges while attracting trillions in institutional capital to legitimate tokenization projects.CONNECT & TAKE ACTIONImagos Income Fund: Text "INCOME" or "DEALS" to 844-447-1555 to learn more about Matty A's private debt fund targeting 10% fixed returns paid out monthly.

The traders monitoring after-the-bell mega cap earnings like Meta, Microsoft and Qualcomm. Live reactions to the reports and what they mean for the tech market in the second half. Co-head of technology and portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price Tony Wang talks all things tech and where he thinks the best trades are in that market.Then, the Fed keeping interest rates at 3.5-3.75%. All the details from today's FOMC meeting and why Fed Chairman Warsh is praising the surge in high tech capex. Plus, earnings results from Starbucks, SK Hynix and more. Fast Money Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 29, describing a volatile “Fed day” as the FOMC held Fed funds unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%. Markets swung sharply and finished broadly lower, with the Dow down 1,153 points (about 2%), the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and Nasdaq down 1.7%, alongside higher rates, rising Middle East tensions involving the U.S. and Iran, and WTI up nearly 7%. He notes a dramatically steepening yield curve, reduced reliance on forward guidance as described by Warsh, and futures implying a 53% chance of a September hike and 31 bps of hikes through year-end. He highlights a divided Fed with three dissenters and discusses a question comparing AI hyperscalers to GFC-era “systemically important” financials, contrasting past equity wipeouts with proposals for government equity participation in AI firms. 00:00 Welcome and Fed Day 00:43 Market Whipsaw Recap 01:17 Rates Oil and Geopolitics 01:38 Yield Curve and Fed Signals 03:01 AI Bailout Question 03:30 GFC Parallels and Differences 04:28 Wrap Up and Takeaways Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Today, we wonder if the back side of SK Hynix's earnings report overnight and the popping of the leveraged ETF bubble in some of the single tech names has now largely run its course - leaving the market for its next move - whether broadly up or otherwise. Certainly, a key event risk like today's FOMC and/or Friday's Bank of Japan meeting could serve as a pivot point. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

The Federal Reserve has spoken... Now it's time to separate the headlines from what really matters. In this special episode, I'm joined by bond market veteran Bill Addiss to break down the latest FOMC interest rate announcement, Chairman's press conference, and the market's reaction. With decades of experience following the fixed-income markets, Bill brings a unique perspective on what the Fed's latest decision means—not just for bonds, but for stocks, commodities, currencies, and the economy as a whole. Markets often react instantly to the Fed's decision, but the biggest moves frequently come from the subtle changes in language and future guidance. The question every investor should be asking is: What did the Federal Reserve actually tell us about where interest rates—and the economy—are headed next? In today's episode, we'll discuss: The latest FOMC interest rate decision Key comments from the Federal Reserve and why they matter What the Fed's statement says about inflation and economic growth How the bond market interpreted the announcement What higher—or lower—interest rates mean for stocks, bonds, real estate, commodities, and cryptocurrencies The sectors most likely to benefit from the Fed's next move Bill will also share his professional insight into how institutional investors analyze Federal Reserve policy, helping traders understand why the bond market often predicts major shifts before the stock market catches on. Because when it comes to the Federal Reserve... It's not just the decision that moves markets—it's the expectations for what comes next. Listen now:

It's Q&A Wednesday, and Lance Roberts & Danny Ratliff answer your questions from our YouTube Live chat while discussing one of the week's biggest market events: the Federal Reserve meeting. Will the Fed's latest decision change the market's direction, or is earnings season, inflation, and economic data driving the bigger story? We answer your questions on investing, portfolio management, retirement planning, market volatility, interest rates, AI stocks, and the economic headlines shaping investor decisions. 0:00 INTRO 0:53 - US/Iran Tit-for-tat, FOMC & Rates w No Forward Guidance 3:15 - Earnings Beat Rate at 83% 4:42 - Markets Languish Below 50-DMA 9:24 - Earnings Prelude 10:31 - What has raised living standards (defining "living standards") vs Happiness 15:40 - Social Media & comparisons to wrong benchmarks 17:26 - The Role of Moving Averages (and how we use them) 21:06 - Using Odd Moving Averages vs 20-, 50-, 100-DMA standards 22:10 - Buying Chinese Chip Stocks (or any International stocks)? 24:24 - Where to Find Earnings Estimates by Sectors 25:33 - Mag-7 performance, Microsoft, & Free Cash Flow 28:24 - Repatriation of Money to Japan? 29:36 - Will AI Improve Middle Class standards of Living? (Solo-preneurships) 32:44 - Should We Incentivize Young Couples to Have Children thru Tax Credits? 36:40 - Will Interest Rates & Inflation Continue to Move Up? 37:02 - Is GIS a Dividend Trap? 40:06 - Most pressing worry in current environment: What we don't know 40:33 - When Bear Sterns Collapsed... Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Senior Investment Advisor, DAnny Ratliff, CFP Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/NXuTqIZToX0 ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "AI Capex Depreciation Risk Is The Catch To Record Earnings" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/ai-capex-depreciation-risk-is-the-catch-to-record-earnings/ -------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" premarket commentary, "Markets Consolidate as Sector Rotation Strengthens," https://youtu.be/pG8vxTC6oco ------- Watch our previous show, "Do You Really Know Your Risk Tolerance?" https://youtube.com/live/m3KZ1fbws2k ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/insights/real-investment-daily/ ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series, "Savvy Social Security Planning: More Income, Less Worry," Thursday, August 6, 2026: https://streamyard.com/watch/tQ3PS8hd64mt --- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN --- Subscribe to SimpleVisor : https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new --- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #FederalReserve #StockMarket #Investing #FinancialPlanning #QAWednesday #StockMarket #MarketRotation #Investing #SP500 #PortfolioManagement

Today we were delighted to welcome James West, Managing Director and Head of Energy and Power Research at Melius Research. James is a longtime energy analyst with more than 25 years of experience leading research teams covering oilfield services, equipment, clean energy, and power at Lehman Brothers, Barclays, Evercore ISI, and now Melius. Since joining Melius, James has expanded his coverage to include independent power producers (IPPs) and the broader power ecosystem. We were pleased to visit with James to hear his latest perspectives on the rapidly evolving energy landscape and the investment themes shaping the next decade. In our conversation, James reflects on his transition from Evercore ISI to Melius and explains why he believes the traditional Wall Street research model is evolving toward a more integrated approach that combines energy, power, technology, and industrials. We discuss how AI-driven electricity demand is accelerating the convergence of these sectors, why access to reliable power has become the biggest bottleneck to AI deployment, and why understanding the entire energy value chain has become increasingly important for investors. We examine the latest earnings season, the recent wave of energy, power, and nuclear IPOs, and how investor sentiment has shifted from enthusiasm around AI infrastructure to a greater focus on execution and capital discipline. James explains why he remains constructive on the long-term outlook for oilfield services, offshore development, international upstream activity, independent power producers, and natural gas, while highlighting the growing importance of behind-the-meter power solutions, regulatory reform, and grid infrastructure. We explore the outlook for advanced nuclear, geothermal, and critical minerals, Canada's strategic role in North American energy markets, how investors are balancing long-duration growth opportunities with near-term market volatility, and why AI is changing the way companies communicate with investors. As James notes, “your press releases have to be written for Claude or ChatGPT, whoever's going to read it before the analyst.” We wrap up the discussion with James' reflections on New York City's enduring role as a global financial and innovation hub. We greatly enjoyed the conversation and appreciate James taking the time to join us. To start the show, Mike Bradley noted that fixed income markets were focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, scheduled for Wednesday. The consensus expectation is for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged. However, there remains a small possibility of a 25-basis-point rate increase, a move that could place Chairman Warsh in President Trump's crosshairs. From a broader equity market standpoint, the S&P 500 was up ~0.5% and the DJIA had gained 600 to 700 points. He attributed much of Tuesday's advance to the sharp decline in oil prices. He also highlighted ongoing sector rotation, with investors shifting capital out of semiconductor stocks and into industrial names. Apple joined the exclusive $5 trillion market-cap club. Another key area of focus this week will be AI-related capex, with three of the Magnificent Seven technology companies scheduled to report earnings. On the oil market front, he highlighted the sharp decline in crude prices, noting that Brent crude had fallen by ~$13/bbl during the week to ~$83/bbl, while WTI crude had declined by ~$11/bbl to ~$78/bbl. He attributed the selloff to rapidly shifting sentiment surrounding the on-again, off-again conflict with Iran. He concluded by noting that the Energy sector had been one of the market's strongest performers over the past several weeks but was down ~4% this week as declining oil prices weighed on sentiment. He emphasized that investors will be closely focused this week on second-quarter earnings reports from the U.S. integrated oil majors and refiners. Investors are hopeful that refiner commentary will provide greater insight into global refined product market fundamentals. Jeff Tillery noted that enthusiasm around AI-driven power infrastructure has cooled alongside AI capex sentiment, pressuring many merchant power and generation stocks, including several recent IPOs. Looking ahead, he believes the sector is entering an execution phase where investors will begin distinguishing between winners and losers rather than rewarding the entire theme uniformly.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen unpack what is likely to influence this week's interest rate decision by the Fed.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, will the Fed hold or hike? It's the question in the market right now. It's Tuesday, July 28th at 9:30am in New York. Will the Fed display patience, or has it run out of patience? That's the question hanging over the July FOMC meeting currently underway. We believe the former. We expect the Fed to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5 to 3.75 percent. The statement will probably also remain unchanged, reiterating the ample reserve policy, economic activity expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty. So, Mike, what's your assessment of the situation beyond that? Michael Gapen: Our assessment of the July FOMC meeting is actually the case for hikes is not as persuasive now as it was in June. And I think when we say that and when we come to the decision the Fed will stay on hold this week, we're basing it mainly on the data that has come in since the June FOMC meeting. And two important pieces on that front are employment growth moderated. So, in the June meeting, the three-month average payroll gain was running at about 188,000 per month. And I think it gave the sense that the labor market was really accelerating and there was downside risk to the unemployment rate. The subsequent employment data changed that view. Now it looks like there is much less of an acceleration in hiring and momentum has slowed. So, the labor market doesn't look quite as robust. Second, there was a lot of information, we think, a lot of signal about disinflation. So yes, recent volatility in the Middle East did push oil prices temporarily higher. We'll see where that goes. But underneath the hood, there was significant softness in goods inflation and services inflation, particularly related to housing. So, we do think that there was a lot of evidence that disinflation is here. So, with those two things in mind, we think there's less of a case to hike in July than there was in June. So, we think the right thing... Or what we think the Fed will do is to skip July, try and buy a little more time, get a little more information. If disinflation is indeed here, the Fed stays on hold. If not, and inflation stays firm, well, they can move to rate hikes later this year. But we think the case to hike in July is less compelling than it was in June. Matthew Hornbach: Well, they certainly will get a lot more information between the July meeting and the September meeting. If memory serves, at least two more rounds of all of the major economic data points… Michael Gapen: That's right. Matthew Hornbach: Payroll, CPI, and so on. Michael Gapen: That's right. The gap between the July FOMC meeting and the September FOMC meeting is the longest on the Fed's calendar. Of course, in part, that makes room for Jackson Hole in August, which if the Fed were moving to a tightening cycle, could be a venue to lay out the case for that. But you're right, they will see multiple employment and inflation reports before they meet again in September. Matthew Hornbach: If they really wanted to get ahead of that data and move at this meeting, what is the case for hiking rates in July? How would you think about that perspective? Michael Gapen: I think you could make a couple of cases to hike now. One is recent volatility and conflict in the Middle East has pushed oil prices higher. Maybe it convinces you – you're in a prolonged oil risk premium scenario, and inflation will not dissipate. Second, I think you could argue, well, it's a balance of risks argument. And we think risks have just shifted in the direction of inflation, where last year they were in the direction of a weaker labor market. We eased last year. Let's just reverse those risk management rate cuts this year. So, it's not about inflation in hand, it's about your view of risks around inflation. Another, I think, and to me, this is the most important one, is maybe Warsh wants a regime change in the reaction function. In other words, he emphasizes price stability and achieving the 2 percent target. Well, at some point, words are words and actions are actions. And maybe what he desires is a more hawkish reaction function and kind of a higher interest rate all else equal to guide inflation down to 2 percent more quickly. So, I think, Matt, if we're wrong this week, I think the main reason we're wrong is I'm thinking under an older reaction function, and Warsh is bringing a new one. And right now, we don't exactly know what his reaction function is. And he could reveal it this week as being in a direction where he really wants to concentrate on the inflation side of the mandate to the exclusion of nearly everything else. Matthew Hornbach: Well, I don't think that's lost on markets at all. And in fact, I think that the rise in yields we've seen in the bond market concentrated in the real yield component of the 10-year Treasury bond tells you a lot about how investors are thinking the Fed will react to higher energy prices. As energy prices have gone up, so have bond yields. The relationship between those two asset prices are very strong. And usually what that suggests is if the real yield is going up more than the break-even inflation rate is going up as energy prices rise, it's telling you that investors think the Fed will not look through the rise in energy prices. If you have the opposite happen, where your break-even inflation rate is going higher, more so than the real interest rate is going higher, that would suggest investors think the Fed will look through the energy price increase. That just hasn't been the case, and so I think investors are very much attuned to what they think is the right reaction function for the Fed. But I guess we'll see. Only time will tell. And I think in order to help us tell what the right reaction function is – we'll need some communication from the Fed. And maybe that's where I want to go next with you – is on communication. It does seem like there have been fewer FOMC participants speaking to the public since Chairman Warsh began his tenure as chairman. Is that your impression? How do you think about communication? And since we are in the midst of this FOMC meeting, the press conference… What do you think about press conferences going forward? Michael Gapen: I do think you're right. I haven't counted up the literal official FOMC communications. I do think there have likely been fewer speeches and/or interviews given recently. And whether or not that's a function of Kevin Warsh as the chairman or it's summer and things move a little slower, I don't know. I will say, though, that when participants have spoken, I think we're getting the same, say, normal communication that they brought in the past. So far, I don't read participants as unwilling to provide their view about the outlook for the economy and for monetary policy. On the press conference, boy, would that be a change. I've been of the view that you probably will not get what I'll call a major change to the SEPs or the press conferences in terms of their frequency until the task force on communications has run its course, where I think the deadline is ultimately later this year. So, I don't think the schedule of press conferences will change until 2027, if it changes at all. But if we don't have them… The way that I would look at that, Matt, is to say, if the Fed's speaking less, there will be a vacuum out there to some degree. So, if the Fed's giving its view on the outlook and monetary policy less frequently, something else will fill that narrative, whether it's markets or the private sector or whatever it is. Vacuums are going to get filled. The Fed's speaking less, somebody else will speak more. Maybe that drives volatility more. I guess it would depend on the situation, but I think pulling press conferences would be a major surprise. I don't think it's in market expectations, and my belief is it would probably lead to some increase in volatility over time.How would you read it? Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. I think the void has already begun to be filled by investors and how they think about the Fed's reaction function, rightly or wrongly. Which is why I think we've seen real yields move in a very positively correlated way with energy prices. Investors are intuiting a certain reaction function to higher energy prices. Whether or not that is the correct view, only time will tell. If we do have a press conference at this upcoming meeting, which looks very likely, investors are going to pay attention to every nuance and every shift in the chairman's tone. How he chooses to address certain questions versus others—or whether he chooses to address them at all—will be important for market participants and how they invest in the bond and currency markets. With that, Mike, thanks again for taking the time to talk. I look forward to catching up with you again in late August around the Jackson Hole symposium. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Thanks for having me on. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Today, a look at the intensifying sell-off in high momentum AI hardware names, led by a an ugly meltdown in the two Korean memory stocks overnight. Meanwhile, the broader market posted a very different and far more positive day, an intensification of recent patterns. Also, we looked at the recent Alphabet, Tesla and Intel earnings reports and the coming reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon.com and Apple with Saxo Equity Strategist Ruben Dalfovo. Finally, a preview of the FOMC meeting tomorrow in the macro and FX discussion and much more also on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Macro Strategist John J. Hardy. Links From what appears a credible source on X on the risks from the AI transformation to Alphabet's/Google's legacy "benevolent monopoly" business model. Bloomberg weighs in on the circular financing concerns linked to Nvidia after a spate of recent stories. Meta is fighting a mountain of social-media lawsuits, possibly worst legal challenge in its 22-year history. Ford joins race to build the next US light duty vehicle for the US military. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This week on LPL Market Signals, LPL Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum is joined by Andrew Norelli of J.P. Morgan Asset Management to discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting. And while markets expect another pause, the bigger question is whether the Fed is preparing investors for more tightening ahead. As such, investors are focused on the path of interest rates, inflation risks, and what comes next for fixed income markets. Lawrence and Andrew share their expectations for the Fed meeting, debate whether markets are underpricing inflation, and highlight opportunities across rates, credit, and securitized sectors as investors navigate an uncertain macro environment. This isn't another discussion of consensus expectations. Instead, we focus on the non-consensus views and market outcomes investors may be overlooking. Tracking: #1147690

The market is holding its breath. Tomorrow's FOMC interest rate decision could set the tone for stocks, bonds, commodities, and cryptocurrencies for weeks to come. While most investors are focused on whether the Federal Reserve will raise, cut, or hold rates steady, the real opportunity often lies in what the Fed says next. Will policymakers signal that inflation is finally under control, or suggest that higher interest rates could remain with us longer than expected? In today's episode, we'll break down everything you need to know before the Fed announcement and discuss how tomorrow's decision could impact the broader financial markets. We'll discuss: What to expect from tomorrow's FOMC meeting How interest rate decisions influence stocks, bonds, and the U.S. dollar The key sectors that could benefit—or suffer—from the Fed's next move The technical levels traders should be watching before the announcement We'll also examine the latest developments involving Iran and the growing impact geopolitical tensions are having on crude oil prices. As energy costs rise, they can quickly become a major driver of inflation, complicating the Federal Reserve's fight to bring prices under control. We'll cover: The latest headlines from the Middle East Why oil prices remain one of the biggest inflation risks How higher energy costs could influence future Fed policy What it all means for investors and traders Finally, I'll walk through two new trades I entered today, explaining the technical setup, my reasoning behind each position, and the risk management plan going forward. Because successful trading isn't about predicting the news... It's about preparing for the market's reaction. Listen now:

US equity futures are weaker, Asian markets are sharply lower while European equities are modestly higher. Markets are being driven by a rotation away from momentum into broader sectors, supported by easing oil prices and lower yields following a pause in Middle East hostilities, though skepticism around a lasting resolution remains. At the same time, concerns around AI capex sustainability and competitive pressures, particularly from China, continue to weigh on sentiment, while investors remain cautious ahead of the FOMC decision and a heavy week of earnings.Companies Mentioned: Lantheus Holdings, NVIDIA

This week on Stock Market Options Trading, Eric O'Rourke and Brian Terry break down the latest market action following geopolitical headlines, discuss why the recent SPX rally continues to stall, and share several option trading ideas they're watching this week.Topics covered include:Why the latest SPX gap higher failed and what it says about market sentimentCurrent gamma levels and key support/resistance zonesThis week's major economic events, including the FOMC meeting, GDP, PCE, and Consumer ConfidenceWhy intraday trend trading has become more challenging in recent weeksNew research showing stronger end-of-day trading opportunitiesEric's updated 0DTE trading approach and end-of-day Iron Condor strategyBrian's QQQ and Micron (MU) broken-wing put butterfly tradesManaging defined-risk option strategies during volatile marketsWhether you're trading SPX, QQQ, or individual stocks, this episode explores how current market conditions are changing the way we approach options trading and risk management.Resources Mentioned► Alpha Crunching: https://alphacrunching.com► Stock Market Options Trading Podcast: https://www.stockmarketoptionstrading.netIf you enjoy systematic options trading, backtesting, and weekly market analysis, be sure to subscribe for new episodes every week.#SPX #OptionsTrading #StockMarket #0DTE #SPXOptions #Gamma #FOMC #IronCondor #QQQ #Micron #TradingPodcast

Today, we look at a few things that unfolded late last week in reaction to some of the first big earnings reports of this quarter and preview the week ahead, which is the biggest one for this quarterly earnings cycle. It's a big week ahead for macro as well, as the FOMC, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are all up later this week. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Iran deal dead. DOGE dead. Saylor selling at a loss. Medieval serfs kept more of their income than you do. I warned you about all of it.This episode is sponsored by DripDrop. Stock up now at http://dripdrop.com and use promo code GOLD for 20% offThis episode is also sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThe Iran peace deal collapsed and the war is back on, with Trump acknowledging he was "two weeks from a depression" when he agreed to the MOU — a confession Peter Schiff says handed Iran all the leverage. Oil jumped 6% to $75, but the real story is bond yields: the 10-year hit 4.58% and the 30-year 5.07% — nearly at cycle highs despite oil being 25% below its peak, proving the debt, not the war, is driving yields higher.FOMC minutes revealed that 9 of 13 members now support rate hikes after zero did just 90 days ago — theatrics Schiff says Warsh is orchestrating to appear hawkish without ever delivering. The May goods trade deficit exploded to $106.5 billion despite Trump's tariffs, continuing the pattern from his first term. DOGE was officially shut down with zero spending cuts achieved. Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin at a $15,000 per coin loss while Stretch sank to $86, and Trump's new savings accounts give kids $1,000 in borrowed money they'll repay through inflation. Schiff closes by noting that medieval serfs kept 75% of their output — more than the average American keeps today — making modern taxpayers lower in status than feudal peasants.Chapters:00:00 Freedom Versus Slavery00:46 Iran Deal Collapses05:04 Markets React to War07:15 Oil Bonds and AI Bubble16:17 Fed Minutes Rate Hike Theater21:28 Tariffs Inflation Excuses26:10 Real Rates and Debt Trap27:41 Trade Deficit Reality Check30:03 AI Threat to Services Surplus32:32 Democracy Deficits and Rights34:59 Rights And Healthcare36:28 Housing And Free Markets40:08 Tax Cuts And Wealth Theft45:55 Taxes And Modern Slavery48:25 DOGE Shutdown And Bitcoin CrashFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy