Podcasts about fomc

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the Fed's path as inflation remains above its target and the labor market continues cooling.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Yesterday, the FOMC meeting delivered another quarter percentage point rate cut. Today we're here to discuss what happens next.It's Thursday, December 11th at 8:30 AM in New York. So, Mike, once again, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points. That outcome was not a surprise, and the markets reacted positively. But there were some surprises. A bit of a divided FOMC, if you will. How did things play out during the meeting and what are some important takeaways to keep in mind? Michael Gapen: Yeah, well certainly Matt, it is a divided committee. I think that's clear. I think one key takeaway for me is the idea that the Fed is done with risk management rate cuts, and now we're back to data dependent. So, what does that mean? I mean, a risk management rate cut isn't necessarily about the data you have in hand and the data you see; it's your view about the distribution of risks around that. So, in some ways, you're not data dependent when you're making those cuts. Now, I think the challenge at this press conference for Powell was to say, ‘Well, now things are different.' And it was a nuance in the sense that cuts from here, if and when they come, will be data dependent. But I think at the same time he did not want to communicate that the bar for those rate cuts were exceptionally high. But I think he threaded the needle quite well in transitioning from risk management cuts, which aren't data dependent to an outlook, which is now more data dependent. And I thought he did that artfully well. So, for me, that's the big key. Secondarily I'd add a takeaway for me was he seems fairly confident that inflation will be coming down, and I think he still believes the labor market is cooling. The blend of that came across as a bit dovish to me. And then the third thing I would add is he fairly explicitly ruled out the risk of rate hikes. So, I think the combination of those three things: data dependence, still concerns about cooling in the labor market, and chopping off the upper half of the rate path distribution – those were kind of the key takeaways from my point. Matthew Hornbach: So, Mike, with respect to the labor market, Chair Powell did address it in a couple of different ways. But one of the ways that stood out to my ears was how he described some technical factors that people are well aware of – that could mean the economy is actually shedding jobs to the tune of about 20,000 per month. I was wondering if you could just briefly address what those factors – that are supposedly so well known – might be. Michael Gapen: Sure. So, obviously the data that gets released, there are the initial releases and then there are revisions. And in the labor market, there are what are called annual benchmark revisions. So, the BLS released a preliminary estimate of that benchmark revision several months ago, and if you apply that initial estimate, it would suggest that job growth in 2025 could be about 60,000 jobs per month, less than has already been reported. But at the same time, we know immigration controls are slowing growth in the labor force. So, this is what Powell is calling the really curious balance. How can you have employment growth basically zero, maybe even negative, after these revisions come in – and the unemployment rate relatively stable. Yes, it's gone up a few tenths, but not like you would normally expect that rise would be if we were shedding jobs. So that to me is why he… You know; the technical factors about revisions and things that lead them to be, I think, very unsure about where the labor market is; and lean in the direction of thinking lower rates are better to manage those risks than where they were six months ago. Matthew Hornbach: One of the points that you raised in your opening explanation of the meeting was about inflation. And Chair Powell mentioned an expectation that the inflation related to tariffs would be peaking in the first quarter of the year. That sounded very familiar to me because I believe that's your expectation as well. I'm curious. How are you looking at tariffs and the inflation related to tariffs today? And do you agree with Chair Powell still? Michael Gapen: We do. Our modeling of the tariff pass through and our conversations with clients and firms and what we hear on corporate earnings calls suggests that this is a long process. Meaning tariffs go in place, prices don't go up the next month. Firms make pricing decisions that take time to implement. So, we agree that the tariff pass through story will extend into 2026 and likely through the end of the first quarter. And if that's true, then goods prices should continue to move higher. The year-on-year rate of inflation should move higher, peaking at 3 percent or a little above in the first quarter of the year. And then tat effect should we think be over, which would open the door for overall inflation to start coming back down. So, I will use the dreaded T-word. We think ultimately inflation from tariffs will be transitory. And I agree with the Chair's timeline; inflation should peak in the first quarter of the year and then start to trend down. That said, we think inflation will be above the Fed's 2 percent target into 2027, and this is the cost of providing insurance to the labor market. Matthew Hornbach: So finally, all things considered, what is your outlook for Fed policy in 2026? Michael Gapen: Yeah, and the key here, Matt, is that exactly what you just implied about tariffs and inflation still going on into 2026, right? Because what we know is while firms are gauging exactly where they should be pricing, they've been offsetting tariffs through lower demand for labor. So, we think the Fed will be cutting again in January. We have three months of employment data that come across two employment reports between now and the January meeting. We think they will show continued cooling in the labor market. And then we have a second cut next year in in April. So, while tariffs are getting passed through, we think the labor market will continue to cool. And this Fed will be biased to cutting rates to provide support to the labor market in the process. That would mean the federal funds rate gets to 3 – 3.25 percent in the second quarter of 2026, where we think it'll stay.So Matt, I'd like to ask you a question. What I noticed was the rate market backed up going into the meeting, despite the fact that market participants were projecting a cut. And then the rate market rallied, in my view, significantly during the meeting and right after. What do you think was happening there? Matthew Hornbach: So, there's a phenomenon that happens in all markets where investors often speculate on a potential outcome. And if the outcome is then delivered, the follow-on price action is underwhelming. That is colloquially known as buying the rumor and selling the fact. So, I think going into this meeting kind of in line with your expectations, investors were forming very similar expectations about how the FOMC statement itself would change and the implications that that might have for the future of Fed policy. When that hawkish cut was delivered almost exactly as you had expected, Mike, I think, investors started thinking about the future in a slightly different way. Now that their expectations were met with the meeting outcome, they started to consider, the data that is forthcoming. And whenever, officials at the Fed talk about data in the way that Chair Powell spoke about the data – and by which I mean labeled the labor market as potentially losing jobs at the moment, and labeling inflation as transitory, that we'd be past the peak of tariff related inflation after the first quarter of the year. Investors can kind of look at those factors and extrapolate going forward, what that may mean for Fed policy in the first half of 2026. So, I think similar to your expectations for policy after this meeting, investors probably became a bit more confident in your outlook for Fed policy that we would see additional rate cuts in the first half of next year. And then, of course, after the April meeting, the baton will be passed to the next Fed chair, and I think investors are considering what policy might look like under that new regime at the Fed. And on the margin, the view is that the next Fed chair would be more likely than not to continue the process of lowering policy rates. So, I think all of those factors played into the post press conference, and even during the press conference reaction. Michael Gapen: Okay Matt, one last question, if I may. How did the events of the FOMC this week and the market reaction, how does that dovetail with how you're thinking about longer term rates, in particular where you see 10-year yields going? And the dollar? Matthew Hornbach: So, 10-year yields are relatively close to 4 percent at this juncture, and we expect them to drift modestly lower in the first half of 2026, as the Fed continues this process of lowering the policy rate. One point that's very important to make here is that the longer-term Treasury yields today are now sitting well above the Fed's policy rate, and that hasn't been the case for many, many years now. A lot of investors with whom we speak think that longer term yields can head a lot higher from here. But we're skeptical – because the higher that those yields go relative to the Fed's policy rate, the more attractive those bonds become for other investors to buy. So, we don't expect a big increase in longer term interest rates. Unlike some investors, we are expecting interest rates in the long end to remain relatively stable with a downward bias.On the dollar, similarly, we have the dollar continuing its depreciation trend, which it began in January of 2025, earlier this year. We expect that depreciation trend to continue in the first half of 2026 before – similar to the interest rate path – we see a little bit of dollar strength in the second half of the year. And so, you know this being the last FOMC meeting of the year, Mike, I guess we're going to have to take a wait and see approach until the FOMC reconvenes in the new year. Thanks a lot for taking the time to talk about the Fed with me this year. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you Matt. See you in 2026. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

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Crypto News: The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps and will start money printing, they will begin purchasing US Treasury Bills on December 12th and will buy $40 billion of US Treasury bills in 30 days. Brought to you by

Today, a look at the S&P 500 attempting a new all-time high and the broader market bulling up strongly on the nominally dovish FOMC meeting, only to be spoiled by the Oracle earnings after the close as investors worry about the company's rate of spending and cloud revenue miss. Can Broadcom earnings today save the day? Also, Carvana is about to be added to the S&P 500, but is it an out-and-out fraud and an eventual zero as many short sellers would maintain? This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Tony Greer and Trevor discuss the today's market, focusing on opportunities in gold and silver, the dynamics of the tech sector, and investment strategies for the upcoming year. They express optimism about the potential for significant gains in precious metals and the implications of recent market movements. The discussion also highlights the upcoming TG Macro Conference and its relevance to market trends. Find more information about the conference HERE.

Post-FOMC Meeting Market Reaction and Economic Outlook - December 10, 2023 In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel from The Bahnsen Group in Newport Beach discusses the market's reactions to the Federal Reserve's recent actions. On December 10th, 2023, the Federal Reserve concluded its FOMC meeting, cutting rates by 25 basis points and adding to its balance sheet, which boosted both the stock and bond markets. The Dow closed up 497 points, with the S&P and Nasdaq also showing gains. Szytel explains the significance of the steepening yield curve, which signals positive economic growth, and reviews the Federal Reserve's future interest rate expectations, unemployment, inflation, and GDP projections. The episode also addresses an op-ed by Muhammad Al Arian regarding the restructuring of The Fed. Overall, the episode provides an optimistic outlook on short-term risk assets and the economy. 00:00 Welcome to Dividend Cafe 00:16 Federal Reserve Meeting Insights 00:48 Market Reactions and Performance 01:25 Understanding Yield Curves 03:28 Economic Projections and Fed Actions 04:30 Op-Ed Discussion and Final Thoughts 05:17 Conclusion and Upcoming Topics Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Crypto News: The OCC clears national banks to facilitate crypto transactions. PNC Private Bank clients can now buy, sell, and hold bitcoin in their existing accounts.Brought to you

Today, we look at the equity and treasury markets holding their collective breath ahead of the FOMC tonight and what to watch for in the market's reaction today, noting that key incoming US macro data is in the mix as well. We also talk gold, the surge in silver and the crude outlook with Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. Also, one key listen for today asks the question of what would the market trajectory look like if AI causes unemployment rates to rise to 20%? Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

This Crypto Town Hall discussion provides an in-depth analysis of the current state and future trajectory of cryptocurrency markets, focusing on the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut and its limited immediate impact on Bitcoin's price. The conversation highlights the growing importance of stablecoins as a gateway for blockchain adoption, especially in emerging markets where traditional banking infrastructure is weak. Experts emphasize the critical need for regulatory clarity, with shifts expected between the SEC and CFTC, and landmark changes such as the OCC's recent approval allowing banks to engage in Bitcoin trading, signaling increased institutional integration. The dialogue also explores the evolving tokenization of assets, the challenges and opportunities in transforming traditional financial systems with blockchain technology, and how crypto-native companies maintain an edge by catering to the unique demands of Bitcoin holders. Additionally, the rise of Bitcoin-backed lending is examined as a vital financial tool enabling users to access liquidity without selling their assets, supported by transparency and risk management that distinguished resilient firms during recent market turmoil. Overall, this discussion captures the dynamic interplay of policy, technology, and market innovation shaping the crypto ecosystem's future.

Bitcoin enters a historic new era as U.S. regulators officially approve banks to act as crypto intermediaries, allowing them to custody digital assets and process blockchain transactions, an institutional green light that could fundamentally reshape the market. At the same time, traders are watching Bitcoin and Ethereum climb on rising Fed rate-cut expectations, while Washington advances a major crypto market-structure bill and the SEC signals a sweeping overhaul to “future-proof” digital-asset regulation. Globally, Argentina has now authorized domestic banks to offer crypto services, and Binance expands its regulated offerings as volatility builds ahead of the FOMC.

We're LIVE for the FOMC meeting — and Jerome Powell's speech could trigger a MASSIVE crypto rally! All eyes are on the Fed as traders brace for potential rate cuts and liquidity signals that could send Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana soaring.

Today's FOMC meeting could cause a HUGE move in Bitcoin — either a big pump or a scary dump. In this episode, I break down what the Federal Reserve is saying, why it matters, and how it could affect the entire crypto market.

It's FOMC Day, and there's no better time to bring in a true market veteran. Today, longtime bond trader William Addiss joins me to break down the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate cut, what it signals, and how it reshapes the landscape for traders in bonds, equities, and beyond. We'll dig into the immediate market reaction, the deeper implications for yield curves, credit markets, and liquidity, and—most importantly—where rates may go from here. If you care about macro trends, fixed income, or positioning ahead of the Fed, this is the episode you need to hear. This show is all about rates, bonds, and the forces moving today's markets. Listen now:

Today, we were delighted to welcome Neil Chatterjee, Former Commissioner and Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Neil served as FERC Chairman from August –December 2017 and again from October 2018–November 2020. During his tenure, he championed several strategic initiatives, including streamlining the liquified natural gas application review and approval process, and advancing the use of technology to mitigate physical and cyber threats to critical energy infrastructure. Prior to his service at FERC, Neil was an advisor to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and worked for the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association. He currently serves as Chief Government Affairs Officer at Palmetto, a Senior Advisor at KKR, a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, and a Senior Policy Advisor at the Climate Leadership Council, in addition to serving on the Bipartisan Policy Center's Board of Directors. We were honored to host Neil at our offices in Houston for an insightful and engaging discussion. In our conversation, we explore Neil's perspective on the evolving U.S. energy landscape amid surging electricity demand, geopolitical pressure, and the rapid growth of artificial intelligence. Chatterjee explains the unique structure and independence of FERC, emphasizing that this design has helped the agency maintain policy stability even as presidential administrations swing between dramatically different energy priorities. He argues that energy security has become synonymous with national security and that FERC now sits at the center of balancing reliability, affordability, and decarbonization. The discussion highlights how new pressures from data centers, electrification, and reindustrialization are straining a grid shaped by decades of flat demand and policy drift. Chatterjee also reflects on past regulatory controversies, noting that AI-driven load growth may finally push the country beyond polarized debates about “fossil versus clean energy,” because meeting demand will require every available resource, from gas and coal to solar, storage, nuclear, and distributed generation technologies. Neil dives into the operational, political, and economic complexities of meeting this surge in power demand. Chatterjee outlines the emerging challenge of large-load interconnection is how to quickly connect massive hyperscaler data centers without destabilizing markets or burdening consumers, and praises a recent DOE directive that gives FERC flexibility (linked here), while insisting on quicker pathways to power. He details trade-offs such as hyperscalers funding grid upgrades in exchange for curtailment obligations, growing tension between utility and market-based models, and the need for aggressive permitting reform to build pipelines and transmission. He notes that time-to-power constraints favor near-term solutions such as solar-plus-storage paired with gas peakers, while advanced nuclear and new gas capacity remain years away. Throughout, he stresses the importance of depoliticizing energy policy and “empowering the nerds”— letting engineers, economists, and market designers, not political cycles, guide decisions on reliability, infrastructure, distributed resources, and the evolving relationship between front-of- and behind-the-meter systems. It was a tour de force and we greatly enjoyed the discussion. Mike Bradley kicked off the show by noting that U.S. markets are laser-focused on Wednesday's FOMC rate decision. On the bond market front, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen to approximately 4.17% (up from 4% two weeks ago) amid growing concern that the Fed may not deliver the multiple interest-rate cuts expected in 2026. He added that a 25-basis point rate cut is anticipated at the meeting and that Chairman Powell's press conference, particularly his tone and comments on Fed independence,

The boys are back, and this time Jerome Powell shows up looking like he just stepped off the set of Terminator: Rate Cut Salvation. In this episode, Chris, Saied and Rajeil break down why markets are foaming at the mouth for a policy pivot… while conveniently ignoring every economic signal flashing bright orange. From exploding rate-cut odds to the consumer tapping out like they're on their ninth round of BNPL debt, this one's a full-speed sprint through the chaos the mainstream financial world desperately pretends isn't happening.➡️ Then we take a hard turn into the AI privacy nightmare no one seems ready for, and the kind of tech overreach that makes Skynet look spiritually grounded. You'll hear why the job market looks strong on the surface but hollow underneath, how corporate America keeps skating by on vibes, and why the average investor is still totally unprepared for what's coming. It's sharp, it's funny, it's troubling... in other words, it's The Higher Standard in peak form.

Carl Quintanilla, Sara Eisen, and David Faber kicked off the hour with fresh jobs data just crossing - before getting into a growing number of comments around the high/low-income consumer. Bespoke's Paul Hickey pointing out some bullish historical trends into year-end, while Goldman's Head of Corporate Credit gave his predictions for rates as another FOMC meeting kicks off today. Plus: a volatile morning for Nvidia as the White House greenlights the sale of some chips to China... what you should know, what it means for shares, and key analysis from one sell-side analyst who calls the stock a buy here.  Also in focus: closing the wealth gap with a new tax... NY Congressman Dan Goldman joined Post 9 with more on his new bill to tax the ultrawealthy, while the team also took a look at Elon Musk's growing wealth tied to SpaceX - and why it could be a bad thing for Tesla shareholders.Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Markets are a bit nervous here ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow and the delayed key US data, with the key question afoot of whether the US treasury yields are set for a break higher, which could drive higher volatility across all other asset classes. Elsewhere, rising yields driving fresh woes for the JPY, with USD traders holding their breath trying to sort through the reaction function to different scenarios for US data. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to three hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

MRKT Matrix - Tuesday, December 9th S&P 500 is little changed as traders brace for Fed decision, Dow dragged down by JPMorgan (CNBC) JPMorgan Drops as Bank Warns of Higher-Than-Expected Costs (Bloomberg) The Fed decision is expected to feature a rate cut and a lot more. Here's what to expect (CNBC) Kevin Hassett Says He Wouldn't Bow to Pressure Over Cutting Interest Rates (WSJ) Consumer Loans Are Getting Harder to Tally—and the Risks Harder to Gauge (WSJ) Private Equity Deal Boom Is Finally Happening, Goldman CFO Says (Bloomberg) SpaceX to Pursue 2026 IPO Raising Far Above $30 Billion (Bloomberg) Nvidia AI Chips to Undergo Unusual U.S. Security Review Before Export to China (WSJ) China set to limit access to Nvidia's H200 chips despite Trump export approval (FT) Sam Altman's Sprint to Correct OpenAI's Direction and Fend Off Google (WSJ) --- Subscribe to our newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://riskreversalmedia.beehiiv.com/subscribe⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ MRKT Matrix by RiskReversal Media is a daily AI powered podcast bringing you the top stories moving financial markets Story curation by RiskReversal, scripts by Perplexity Pro, voice by ElevenLabs

US equity futures point to a slightly firmer open, with Asian markets mostly weaker and European equities trading marginally higher. Today focus is on mounting speculation around a hawkish Federal Reserve rate cut at this week's FOMC meeting, driving a reassessment of the pace of easing beyond December. Trade policy is also in focus after President Trump confirmed the US will permit Nvidia to export H200 chips to China in exchange for a tariff reduction, while signaling similar treatment for other US chipmakers and simultaneously threatening new tariffs on Mexico, India and other trading partners. In equities, sentiment remains fragile after Monday's sell-off in US stocks, with pressure on tariff-exposed sectors, rising concern around higher-for-longer rates, ongoing AI-related disruption headlines, and continued attention on M&A activity and positioning after a strong two-week rebound.Companies Mentioned: PepsiCo, Carlyle Group, Hogy Medical, Coupang

Crypto News: Big week ahead for markets with Fed Rate Cut decision. French banking giant BPCE to launch in-app crypto trading.Brought to you by

On Wednesday, the Fed will hold its last FOMC meeting of the year. Their actions and communications could move interest rates across the yield curve and so are important for investors.

In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, co-host Telis Demos is joined by WSJ markets reporter Hannah Erin Lang to discuss the return of investor optimism as the S&P 500 approaches all-time highs ahead of the FOMC's upcoming meeting. They also analyze the next test for the AI trade: earnings from Oracle and Adobe this week. Plus, the U.S. dollar is sliding as the Federal Reserve prepares to cut rates while Japan signals hikes. The hosts discuss how this could drive capital abroad. After the break, Telis sits with Nate Wuerffel, head of market structure and product head for the global collateral platform at BNY, to discuss the Fed's other big decision: How large a balance sheet should it maintain? Wuerffel, a former New York Fed official, explains the mechanics of quantitative tightening and the risks of "scarce” reserves. They explore how liquidity in the "plumbing" of the financial system affects everyday consumers through higher mortgage costs and discuss the importance of a liquid Treasury market in preventing crises like 2023's Silicon Valley Bank failure. This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for Live Markets, and Telis Demos, Heard on the Street's banking and money columnist, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. Have an idea for a future guest or episode? How can we better help you take on the week? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading The Fed's Tool for Calming Short-Term Funding Markets Is Being Tested Fed's Williams Expects Central Bank to Return to Asset Purchases Soon The Fed's $6.6 Trillion Test: When to End Its Portfolio Runoff A Little Dual Easing Soon Could Help the Fed Avoid Major Easing Later The Repo Market: What It Is, and Why Everyone Is Talking About It Again For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter. Follow Gunjan Banerji here and Telis Demos here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, joins The Julia La Roche Show for "The Wrap with Chris Whalen." Whalen breaks down what's ahead for the Federal Reserve and financial markets as we head into 2026. He discusses Kevin Hassett as the likely next Fed Chair, explaining why Fed independence is more myth than reality and how political pressures will influence rate decisions ahead of the midterm elections. Whalen analyzes the upcoming FOMC meeting, commercial real estate risks, and why he's not concerned about an imminent market crisis despite ongoing concerns about the Treasury market and credit conditions. He also tackles why the Fed's 2% inflation target may be outdated and explains the K-shaped economy that has consumers and investors feeling divided about the recovery. Links:    The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/  https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/post/theira785Inflated book (2nd edition): https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/inflated-r-christopher-whalen/1146303673Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/   Timestamps:00:00 Intro and welcome Chris Whalen01:07 Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair pick?03:10 Fed independence and political dynamics05:00 Midterm elections and rate cut pressure09:28 FOMC meeting preview, Fed worried about being "late to the party"11:27 Importance of mortgage rates over fed funds15:18 State of the economy, no crisis coming 16:56 Bitcoin and crypto market discussion19:33 Commercial real estate reality check23:29 Private credit myths and reality25:00 Viewer question: Bank preferred stocks 26:50 Viewer question: Why the 2% inflation target?28:14 Inflation vs deflation in asset markets30:00 Biggest risks entering 202630:27 Surprise events and systemic risk31:21 K-shaped economy and recovery paths33:00 Wrap up and where to find Chris Whalen

After weeks of speculation, back and forth over bad theories on inflation and what seemed to be a steady stream of hawk-sounding Fed policymakers, the market has spoken. We know right now what the FOMC is going to do next Wednesday. But what comes after that is still somewhat up in the air, though not nearly as much as you might think given all the noise recently.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------EDU's Webinar SeriesThursday December 17, 6pm ETA Trillion-Dollar Eurodollar Bomb is going Off on Wall StreetThe most important funding system in the world is flashing warning signals, and almost no one is paying attention.https://event.webinarjam.com/m9wym/register/n0rnxu7n---------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Jay Woods sees the SPX testing, if not breaking all-time highs before the end of 2025. He believes the market is waiting for one big announcement to make that push: a FOMC interest rate cut next week. However, bullishness may vary pending on the tone of the announcement. In recapping 2025, he talks about ways investors weathered volatility through the DeepSeek shake-up and tariff tantrum. Looking ahead of 2026, he says it will be a year of A.I. "winners and losers." ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Nancy Davis and Eric Winograd react to the September PCE data, which was delayed due to the government shutdown. Nancy says the report is a “green light” that lets the Fed “cut, cut, cut,” and previews what to watch in Powell's comments after the FOMC decision next week. Eric doesn't think there was any “new information” in the report and notes that the Fed is still missing up to date labor market data. “The Fed gets to choose” next week he says but thinks the picture will clear up in 2026.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

As the first trading week of December comes to a close, investors turn to next week's FOMC interest rate decision. Kevin Hincks reports from the Cboe Global Markets to explain how jobless claims and the delayed September core PCE prints pave the way for a likely hawkish cut, which bond markets are bracing for. Kevin also touches on the Netflix (NFLX) deal to buy Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) for $82.7 billion and explains why investors "should be pretty patient" for the deal to pan out.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end? For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair's view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets 4:45 - Markets Prep for Year End Rally 9:33 - 2026 Economic Summit Tease 10:32 - Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman? 13:25 - Is Fed Groupthink Ending? 16:13 - How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets 18:02 - How About a Pre-2000 Fed? 24:08 - "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 - It's All About Liquidity 27:01 - Data Center Power Ramp-up 29:56 - E-mail: Tariff Decision Impact on Markets 33:11 - What is the Impact of Rate Changes on the US Dollar? 36:17 - Inflation Remains 37:04 - The Shifting Narratives - AI & Debt 39:08 - Narratives are Rationalizations for What's Happening 43:28 - Market Breadth is not Great Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvNL-iyGgj0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fed-regime-change-groupthink-may-be-ending/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility May Precede Santa Claus Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #YearEndRally #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #MarketLiquidity

Is the era of Fed groupthink finally coming to an end? For over a decade, the Federal Reserve has operated under a powerful consensus framework—one where dissent has been rare and the Chair's view has dominated policy outcomes. But shifting politics, rising dissenting votes, and increasing disagreements among FOMC members may signal a new regime change at the Fed. Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz break down: 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - ISM Report Shows Abnormality of Markets 4:45 - Markets Prep for Year End Rally 9:33 - 2026 Economic Summit Tease 10:32 - Will Kevin Hassett Be the Next Fed Chairman? 13:25 - Is Fed Groupthink Ending? 16:13 - How a Split Fed Vote Could Affect Markets 18:02 - How About a Pre-2000 Fed? 24:08 - "Reserve Management" is Code for QE0:35 - It's All About Liquidity 27:01 - Data Center Power Ramp-up 29:56 - E-mail: Tariff Decision Impact on Markets 33:11 - What is the Impact of Rate Changes on the US Dollar? 36:17 - Inflation Remains 37:04 - The Shifting Narratives - AI & Debt 39:08 - Narratives are Rationalizations for What's Happening 43:28 - Market Breadth is not Great Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manger, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jvNL-iyGgj0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Fed Regime Change: Groupthink May Be Ending" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/fed-regime-change-groupthink-may-be-ending/ -------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Volatility May Precede Santa Claus Rally," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnOnz8np7ps&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Watch our previous show, "Trump Accounts Explained: Who Qualifies for the Dell Deal?" here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #SantaClausRally #StockMarketToday #MarketVolatility #YearEndRally #TechnicalAnalysis #FederalReserve #FOMC #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #MarketLiquidity

Kevin Hincks reports from the Cboe Global Markets to go over the latest on the labor front, including a dip in challenger jobs cuts following last month's historic spike. He offers his take on why the FOMC "shouldn't" be hawkish in December regardless of whether or not. it cuts interest rates. Kevin also turns to the markets eyeing Kevin Hassett as the most likely candidate to head the Fed once Jerome Powell's term ends. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Meta Platforms (META) cutting 30% of its budget for the Metaverse is something Kevin Green has on his radar for Thursday's trading session. He explains how a company push toward A.I. has investors bullish. On the macro front, he breaks down the slew of economic data that hit the wire, including initial jobless claims. KG explains why he sees the print as an "outlier." He later offers technical analysis of gasoline's 15-year price downtrend. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The employment picture remains hazy and sluggish, says Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola, though he tells investors it's not quite as a "snail's pace." He turns to data where he sees a rebound. Joe urges attention to small caps, especially if the Fed continues to lower interest rates. Sticking with the FOMC, Mike Townsend believes dissenting votes are expected to continue as "drama" continues around the Trump administration and who it wants on the committee. He also tells investors what he's watching in Congress's "stumble" toward the end of 2025 to avoid another government shutdown. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York. So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market. Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question? Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S. And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well. Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling. All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

In today's show, we break down the latest disappointing jobs data and what it really signals beneath the headlines. The labor market just threw the Fed a curveball—and it may be exactly the kind of weakness that pushes Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve toward a rate cut next week. We'll unpack why the numbers matter, how traders should interpret the shift in employment momentum, and what this means for equities, bonds, and—yes—crypto as well. If you're trying to position ahead of the Fed's next move, this episode gives you the institutional framework you need. Listen now:

Today we had the pleasure of hosting Dr. Kruti Lehenbauer, Founder of Analytics TX. Kruti is a longtime statistician and economic consultant who has held leadership roles across analytics, data, and research. She holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Political Economy and helps organizations audit business data, uncover hidden efficiencies, and navigate strategic planning, AI adoption, and more. She regularly shares thought-provoking insights and translates complex analysis into clear, actionable takeaways. We were delighted to hear her perspectives on interest rates, inflation, tariffs, and more ahead of next week's Fed meeting. In our conversation, we explore the “panic narrative” around the economy and why the past five years may feel worse than what the long-run trends suggest. We discuss the health of the U.S. economy, whether we're truly in a unique moment, how rapid interest rate hikes have worsened the debt picture, and why Kruti believes rates should already be moving back toward ~3%. She shares why the expectation that “everything must rise exponentially” is misguided, invoking Joan Robinson's reminder that “in the long run we are all dead, but not all at once.” We cover what data Kruti thinks the Fed should focus on (employment, GDP, true inflation) versus short-term headlines and political noise, the interplay between aggregate demand and aggregate supply, and why productivity and technology matter most for long-run growth. Kruti also explains how tariffs effectively raise real interest rates, how consumers adapt, and the flaws she sees in how we measure inflation today. We touch on why she believes fears of mass job loss from AI are overblown, the importance of adaptation, and her concerns about declining quality in higher education and its impact on high-skill labor and future productivity. We address fiscal versus monetary policy, why overreliance on the Fed is risky, and long-run structural issues including savings behavior, financial literacy, and long-dated household debt. We also discuss India's role as a rising economic partner and end with the “magic-wand” reforms Kruti would prioritize including leaner government, updated inflation metrics, and policies that expand the economy's productive frontier rather than over-managing it. It was a thought-provoking discussion. Mike Bradley kicked us off by noting that broader equity markets rallied on a rebound in Bitcoin, bond yields have been inching higher, crude oil remains under pressure, U.S. natural gas price continues to surge, and copper prices are hitting all-time highs. The 10-year bond yield inched higher this week to ~4.1%, after trading near 4% last week, on rumors that Kevin Hassett is the front-runner for Federal Reserve Chairman. Bond volatility will likely continue into the December 10th FOMC meeting. The DJIA and S&P 500 were both up on the day but remain flattish to slightly lower for the week, with Technology leading and Energy lagging. On the oil market front, WTI price continues to be under pressure (trading just under $59/bbl) due to continuing concern around an early 2026 global oil surplus (~2-4mmbpd). This bearish oil thesis/trade is very-very-very consensus. OPEC+ convened over the weekend and agreed, as expected, to pause oil output hikes through Q126 and to call for third-party verification of OPEC+ members Maximum Sustainable Capacity for 2027 production baselines. He closed by highlighting that cold weather has finally arrived, spiking prompt U.S. natural gas price to ~$5/MMBtu (while the 12-month strip holds steady at ~$4.15/MMBtu). He noted the remarkable surge in Lower-48 dry gas production, from 108-109bcfpd a month ago to a weekend peak of ~114bcfpd, now settling in at 112-113bcfpd. Jeff Tillery shared a few themes he's watching heading into the next few quarters. In traditional energy, oilfield services stocks are jumping even as oil prices fall, raising the question of whether the market is signali

Eddie Ghabour returns to Trading 360 to explain why he sees a big rebound coming for the tech trade. The linchpin to his thesis: Bitcoin. Eddie talks about the cryptocurrency's role in bolstering A.I. stocks. As for the Fed, he issues a warning to investors to brace for a "hawkish" tone, regardless of whether the FOMC cuts rates or not in December. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Federal Reserve's quantitative approach to monetary policy decisions means its governors tend to reach consensus. But in the past few meetings, some FOMC members have disagreed on whether to prioritize jobs or inflation. In this episode, “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal and former FOMC member Daniel Tarullo discuss why the Fed is divided right now. Plus: Dollar stores weather an uncertain economy, companies use return-to-office policies as a workforce reduction mechanism, and electricity demand grows as data centers pop up nationwide.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

The Federal Reserve's quantitative approach to monetary policy decisions means its governors tend to reach consensus. But in the past few meetings, some FOMC members have disagreed on whether to prioritize jobs or inflation. In this episode, “Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal and former FOMC member Daniel Tarullo discuss why the Fed is divided right now. Plus: Dollar stores weather an uncertain economy, companies use return-to-office policies as a workforce reduction mechanism, and electricity demand grows as data centers pop up nationwide.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Kevin Hincks takes investors through Tuesday morning's trading action ahead of the opening bell at the NYSE. He marks strong points for the economy by highlighting a notable uptick in spending for the Thanksgiving holiday season, ranging from the landmark holiday itself through Cyber Monday. Kevin also turns to the latest developments surrounding the FOMC before the committee makes its interest rate decision next week. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Futures turned to the downside ahead of Monday's trading session after a rally bolstered markets throughout Thanksgiving week. Alex Coffey talks about the market strength happening both above and under the surface. As for macro movers, Kevin Hassett is being seen as President Trump's favorable pick for Fed chair once Jerome Powell's term ends. Alex also touches on stock moves in Synopsys (SNPS) after Nvidia (NVDA) said it will invest $2 billion into the company. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The Bank of Japan hinting toward a rate hike, paired with weakness in Airbus (EADSY), caused international stocks to slide ahead of Monday's trading action in the U.S. As Kevin Hincks says from the Cboe Global Markets, that can change once the opening bell rings on Wall Street. Bitcoin's sell-off doesn't help that case, though Kevin explains how the end of quantitative tightening from the Fed plays into a set-up for bullish reversal. He later talks about President Trump's prospects on a future FOMC chair. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Charles Schwab's Cooper Howard points part of the risk-off sentiment Monday morning to the interest rate clash between Japan and the U.S. Global markets attempt to price in a rate hike from the former and a cut from the latter. As for expectations on the next Fed Chair, Cooper sees a longer higher-term yield if the next head cuts rates more aggressively. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

This week: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins  Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers, and Emily Peck for an in-depth discussion on what exactly the Fed does. They'll get into how voting and deliberation works at the FOMC, the different eras of the Fed's communication strategy, his response to the Fed haters, and Data Dogs vs Data Cats.  In the Slate Plus episode: Austan Goolsbee Interview Post-Mortem. Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins  Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers, and Emily Peck for an in-depth discussion on what exactly the Fed does. They'll get into how voting and deliberation works at the FOMC, the different eras of the Fed's communication strategy, his response to the Fed haters, and Data Dogs vs Data Cats.  In the Slate Plus episode: Austan Goolsbee Interview Post-Mortem. Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins  Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers, and Emily Peck for an in-depth discussion on what exactly the Fed does. They'll get into how voting and deliberation works at the FOMC, the different eras of the Fed's communication strategy, his response to the Fed haters, and Data Dogs vs Data Cats.  In the Slate Plus episode: Austan Goolsbee Interview Post-Mortem. Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins  Felix Salmon, Elizabeth Spiers, and Emily Peck for an in-depth discussion on what exactly the Fed does. They'll get into how voting and deliberation works at the FOMC, the different eras of the Fed's communication strategy, his response to the Fed haters, and Data Dogs vs Data Cats.  In the Slate Plus episode: Austan Goolsbee Interview Post-Mortem. Want to hear that discussion and hear more Slate Money? Join Slate Plus to unlock weekly bonus episodes. Plus, you'll access ad-free listening across all your favorite Slate podcasts. You can subscribe directly from the Slate Money show page on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Or, visit slate.com/moneyplus to get access wherever you listen. Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Alex Coffey analyzes the recent market volatility and recent cooldown seen in this week's trading sessions. He compares the price action with seasonal measures to highlight why this year is "impressive" compared to the past. As Alex explains, boosted expectations for an interest rate cut in December only adds momentum. A rotation from A.I. and high-flying tech stocks into underappreciated sectors added muscle to the broad market, another factor Alex considers healthy for trade. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Despite half the Federal Reserve's best efforts to take away the December rate cut, the bond market is signaling from top to bottom, back to front it doesn't care one bit. The FOMC can spout off on tariff inflation, they can claim there is no way they'll support lowering rates next month, yields are going down and taking inflation expectations with them. The bond market is making big moves despite KC Jeff and his federal funds band.   Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Eurodollar University's EARLY BLACK FRIDAY SALEGet our DDA+ subscription including the DDA, a membership, and the Daily Briefing for one ultra-low price. Not only that, we'll also include the Substack One Big Weekly Theme subscription to. Huge value and huge savings. https://https://www.eurodollar.university/black-friday-2025---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Fell Sharply in Novemberhttps://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/Bloomberg Retail Sales Lost Steam in September as Shoppers Pulled Backhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/us-retail-sales-rose-0-2-in-september-as-consumers-pulled-backCNBC Core wholesale prices rose less than expected in September; retail sales gainhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/25/core-wholesale-prices-rose-less-than-expected-in-september-retail-sales-gain.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Christopher Whalen to the show. Christopher Whalen is an Investment Banker, Author, and Chairman Whalen Global Advisors. The discussion centers on the current economic landscape, with a particular focus on gold, monetary policy, and the future of the global financial system. Whalen argues that the world is in the early stages of a gold up-cycle, primarily driven by central banks increasingly adopting gold as a key reserve asset. He emphasizes that while the US dollar remains crucial for global trade, its dominance is gradually shifting. Whalen provides insights into the current economic challenges, highlighting inflation as a significant concern. He suggests that the federal deficit and monetary expansion are primary drivers of economic instability. The conversation explores the potential for alternative monetary approaches, including gold-linked bonds and revaluing gold stocks, though Whalen remains skeptical about a complete return to a gold standard. Regarding global currency dynamics, Whalen believes the BRICS settlement currency and attempts to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy are unlikely to succeed in the near term. He argues that the dollar’s utility in financing transactions and its widespread acceptance make it difficult to replace. However, he anticipates a gradual decline in the dollar’s global share, moving towards a more multilateral system reminiscent of the pre-World War II era. On investment strategies, Whalen recommends diversification, particularly advocating for 10-20% of portfolios to be allocated to gold. He is cautious about current equity markets, especially tech stocks driven by artificial intelligence hype. The banking sector presents mixed prospects, with consumer banking relatively stable but commercial real estate posing significant challenges. Ultimately, Whalen remains optimistic about the United States’ economic potential. He believes the country’s natural resources, economic flexibility, and inherent strengths will help manage current financial challenges. The discussion concludes with a nuanced view of economic transformation, suggesting adaptation rather than catastrophic decline. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:54 – Gold’s Long-Term Cycle 00:01:21 – Central Banks Buying Gold 00:03:13 – Inflation and AI Hype 00:05:44 – Monetary Inflation Defined 00:07:04 – Metals as Safe Havens 00:11:13 – Commodity Supercycle Thesis 00:13:03 – Treasury Debt Issuance Strategy 00:15:44 – Gold-Linked Bonds Proposal 00:19:12 – Gold Remonetization Incentives 00:21:36 – BRICS Currency Challenge 00:26:56 – Outgrowing US Debt 00:32:41 – Equities in Inflation 00:36:26 – Banking Sector Health 00:38:32 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://www.rcwhalen.com/ X: https://x.com/rcwhalen Books (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/mv3wctcr LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/rcwhalen/ Over three decades, Chris has worked as an author, financial professional, and journalist in Washington, New York, and London. After graduating, he served under Rep. Jack Kemp (R-NY) at the House Republican Conference Committee. In 1993, he was the first journalist to report on secret FOMC minutes concealed by Alan Greenspan. His career included roles at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, Tangent Capital, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings. Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books: “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), published by Laissez Faire Books; “Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream” (2010) by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also with Wiley. He served on FINRA’s Economic Advisory Committee from 2011 to 2023 and was an advisor on Season 5 of SHOWTIME's “Billions.” Additionally, he was a fellow at Indiana State University (2008-2014), a member of Villanova School of Business' Finance Department Advisory Council (2013-2016), and a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (2017-2019). Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst and contributes to other publications and forums. He has testified before Congress, the SEC, and FDIC. A regular media commentator on CNBC, Bloomberg, and Fox News, Chris is active on social media under “rcwhalen.” He is also a member of The Mortgage Bankers Association and The Lotos Club of New York.