Podcasts about European Central Bank

A.M. Edition for July 29. Oil prices rise after Iran launches a surprise missile attack on U.S. forces. Plus, Europe's luxury brands try to move past years of sluggish demand. And as Meta spends big on its AI transformation—technology CEO Mark Zuckerberg says the U.S. should help to accelerate—Journal reporter Meghan Bobrowsky says a host of lawsuits could cost it billions. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The European Central Bank is expected to raise rates again in September in a bid to contain energy-induced inflation. Charlie Westin, Personal Finance Editor of The Irish Independent, joins us on The Last Word to discuss.To hear the full chat, press 'PLAY' on this page!

Brent crude jumps over US$100 as the Iran conflict blocks both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. The European Central Bank holds, but hawkishly. And Australian jobs jump, albeit with a flat jobless rate — keeping the pressure to hike off the RBA. In our deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at how well-placed Asian economies are to handle the return of higher oil prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/

A.M. Edition for July 24. Global markets are reckoning with the prospect of prolonged conflict in the Middle East and rising inflation as oil prices roar back – pushing up borrowing costs in the U.S. and Asia. Plus, hotel chain Melia pulls out of Cuba in a blow to the island's vital tourism sector. And WSJ defense reporter Alistair MacDonald explains how Europe is turning to homegrown defense technologies in an effort to counter U.S. dependence. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The US unveiled new tariffs to replace old ones, oil's jump above $100 deepened a global bond sell-off, and thousands of supporters of the youth-led “Cockroach” movement in India continued protesting over problems in the education system. Plus, the European Central Bank held interest rates, but other central banks may not follow suit. Mentioned in this podcast:US hits 60 countries with new duties as Donald Trump rebuilds tariff wall Oil hits $100 for first time since May while US stocks slide Oil price surge drives global bond sell-offIndia's Gen Z takes on ModiIndian police battle ‘Cockroach' protesters with batons and tear gasEuropean Central Bank holds interest rates at 2.25% after debating riseCredits: ANI / ReutersWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts The FT News Briefing is produced by Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, and Fiona Symon. Our editor is Marc Filippino. Our show is mixed by Sam Giovinco and Alex Higgins. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello, Peter Barber and David da Silva. Our intern is Cole van Miltenburg. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Flo Phillips is the FT's global head of audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global equities traded lower as oil prices surged in response to escalating tensions in the Middle East, while renewed concerns over AI-related capital expenditure weighed on investor sentiment. Although the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, expectations of further policy tightening later this year have strengthened, pushing bond yields higher across major markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals markets, and what they could mean for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (00:27) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:30) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX / Portfolio Management, Private Banking Geneva (11:44) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your day.On today's podcast:(1) The US will collect duties of between 10% and 12.5% on imports from most major trading partners, its biggest move yet to reconstruct President Donald Trump’s tariff wall that was pierced by the Supreme Court.(2) President Donald Trump threatened to escalate strikes on Iran and said he’d hold the country responsible for any further attacks by the Yemen-based Houthis on ships in the Red Sea, as the widening Middle East war puts new strain on global energy supplies.(3) Wall Street is growing increasingly concerned about the hundreds of billions of dollars Big Tech is spending on artificial intelligence just as the resurgence of the war in Iran clouds the global macroeconomic outlook.(4) European Central Bank officials are prepared to raise borrowing costs in September unless the euro-zone inflation outlook improves markedly, people familiar with the situation said.(5) Prime Minister Andy Burnham will open a new branch of 10 Downing Street in north-west England on Friday in an attempt to demonstrate his vision for devolving power away from London.(6) When the Trump administration shut down USAID, officials rejected warnings that ending the agency's work would put lives at risk. Now, a Bloomberg investigation has linked an unfinished US-funded irrigation project in Kenya to the worst flooding one village has experienced in at least a decade.(7) Adeel Khan is steering Barclays’ trading business through one of the trickiest balancing acts in the industry.Podcast Conversation: Solo Diners Are the Face of 'Me-conomics'See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Oil prices continue to surge as tensions between the US and Iran raise concerns about global energy supplies and economic growth. There were knock-on effects in bond markets with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to a two-month high. Alphabet and Tesla were the first of the Magnificent 7 stocks to report earnings after the bell yesterday – both stocks fell in extended trading. At the European Central Bank meeting later today interest rates are expected to be held steady. Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, joins the show to provide an update on the Q2 earnings season so far and explains why the investment case for US banks remains.(00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content (07:26) - Earnings season update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research (10:53) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your day.On today's podcast:(1) The Houthis, a militant group in Yemen who have been threatening to open another front in the Iran war, said they had targeted two oil tankers in the Red Sea.(2) The European Central Bank will probably keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, buying time to assess the fallout of renewed fighting in the Middle East.(3) The US and Saudi Arabia finalized a long-sought nuclear technology-sharing deal that could allow American companies to build reactors in the kingdom, but cracks the door open for the country to enrich its own nuclear reactor fuel.(4) Alphabet set the tone for Big Tech earnings with a higher spending outlook that stoked concern the company will ditch fiscal discipline in the race to dominate artificial intelligence.(5) Tesla’s profit tumbled despite a strong quarter for its automotive business, pressuring Elon Musk’s plan to refocus the electric vehicle maker on artificial intelligence and robots.(6) When OpenAI’s advanced artificial intelligence models breached AI startup Hugging Face’s internal systems last week, they spent mere hours carrying out a hack that would have taken a skilled human far longer, people familiar with the matter said.(7) Hundreds of bankers moved to Paris incentivized by employers moving their European headquarters from Brexit Britain, while taking advantage of generous French tax breaks that last for as long as 8 years. Now, with those time-limited benefits set to start expiring, the question for some is whether it might be soon time to relocate again.Podcast Conversation: Luxury Travelers Turn to Split Trips for City-and-Beach GetawaysSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Why can't we just print more money? What's one thing everyone should know about finance? Can universities prepare us for an AI-driven future? And what makes countries want to adopt the euro? These questions came from you, our listeners. So at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, we grabbed a mic and put the questions to the experts. Hear their answers in the latest What the Euro?! episode. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 21 July, and recorded on 30 June and 1 July 2026. Further reading: AI and your future – In Conversation with OpenAI's Ronnie Chatterji https://pod.link/ecbpodcast/episode/dGFnOnNvdW5kY2xvdWQsMjAxMDp0cmFja3MvMjM1MzgyMTM0NA ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank

Second-quarter earnings got off to a strong start in the US with solid results from big banks, but now markets will be focused on what the technology hyperscalers have to say about both earnings and their spending plans, says Dr. Dirk Steffen, the Private Bank's EMEA CIO. "We're getting closer to 1 trillion, maybe in a year or so, a trillion dollars that will be spent by a handful of companies in terms of capex and tech investments,” Dirk says. “It will be very important to hear what these companies are telling us about what they're planning to do."In the fixed-income space, Dirk notes that a large wave of issuance from big technology firms earmarked for AI spending could be a factor keeping sovereign bond yields elevated. “This is leading to maybe a touch of less demand for sovereigns,” he says, noting that key market participants tend to favour corporate investment-grade bonds over their government counterparts.In the week ahead, a policy decision from the European Central Bank will be interesting to watch, even though it is widely expected that interest rates will remain unchanged. “It will be interesting to see how they judge the current situation, especially in light of the renewed rise in oil prices and what it means for European economies.”For more investing insights, please visit wealth.db.com.In Europe, Middle East and Africa as well as in Asia Pacific this material is considered marketing material, but this is not the case in the U.S. No assurance can be given that any forecast or target can be achieved. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models which may prove to be incorrect. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.Performance refers to a nominal value based on price gains/losses and does not take into account inflation. Inflation will have a negative impact on the purchasing power of this nominal monetary value. Depending on the current level of inflation, this may lead to a real loss in value, even if the nominal performance of the investment is positive. Investments come with risk. The value of an investment can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. Your capital may be at risk.The services described in this podcast are provided by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is subject to comprehensive supervision by the European Central Bank (“ECB”), by Germany's Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and by Germany's central bank (“Deutsche Bundesbank”). Brokerage services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a broker-dealer and registered investment adviser, which conducts investment banking and securities activities in the United States.Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. is a member of FINRA, NYSE and SIPC. Lending and banking services in the United States are offered through Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas, member FDIC, and other members of the Deutsche Bank Group.The products, services, information and/or materials referred to within this podcast may not be available for residents of certain jurisdictions. © 2026 Deutsche Bank AG and/or its subsidiaries. All rights reserved. This podcast may not be used, reproduced, copied or modified without the written consent of Deutsche Bank AG. 030620 030121

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry.Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything – accounts, investments, savings, and spending.  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.  Today's sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you're a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500's user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you've been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we learn that the European Central Bank secured key parliamentary backing for the launch of a Digital Euro, an electronic means of payment. Finally, Pastor Stan shares an incredible article how “Data Centers became more important than people”. 00:00 Intro 00:56 EU Breaks Free from US 03:17 Data Centers more important than People 13:52 The Beginning of a Pattern

Today we learn that the European Central Bank secured key parliamentary backing for the launch of a Digital Euro, an electronic means of payment. Finally, Pastor Stan shares an incredible article how “Data Centers became more important than people”. 00:00 Intro 00:56 EU Breaks Free from US 03:17 Data Centers more important than People 13:52 The Beginning of a Pattern

Today we learn that the European Central Bank secured key parliamentary backing for the launch of a Digital Euro, an electronic means of payment. Finally, Pastor Stan shares an incredible article how “Data Centers became more important than people”. 00:00 Intro 00:56 EU Breaks Free from US 03:17 Data Centers more important than People 13:52 The Beginning of a Pattern

Today we learn that the European Central Bank secured key parliamentary backing for the launch of a Digital Euro, an electronic means of payment. Finally, Pastor Stan shares an incredible article how “Data Centers became more important than people”. 00:00 Intro 00:56 EU Breaks Free from US 03:17 Data Centers more important than People 13:52 The Beginning of a Pattern

What does AI mean for your job, our economy and Europe's future? In this episode of Euro Matters, Stefania Secola speaks to Ronnie Chatterji – Chief Economist at OpenAI – about AI adoption, productivity and inequality. They also discuss competition and whether the technology can become a force for broad-based prosperity. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup.00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade 03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China's Oil Buying Strike13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn't Slowing Down22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics

This month's recap covers what June 2026 actually meant for the industry, and it was not what anyone had pencilled in.The cheaper borrowing that stalled schemes were relying on did not arrive. The European Central Bank raised rates. The Fed held. The Bank of England held. And a spike in oil above 125 dollars a barrel, triggered by fears over the Strait of Hormuz, made central banks nervous about cutting at all. On the materials side, US tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper are sitting at 50 percent, with non-residential material costs rising at their fastest pace since 2022. One estimate puts 17,500 dollars of added cost onto a single new American home.Both doors closed in the same month.Then the split that was supposed to be temporary. Data centres are now a bigger construction category than offices. But the thing holding that work back is not money, it is power, and grid connections are running five to seven years behind the builds. The boom is real. The gate is megawatts.Plus a full recap of the three June briefings you may have missed, on safety tech, the AI price war, what happens when AI hands your client the knowledge you used to charge for, and why the first piece of reconstruction technology in Ukraine is not a crane.And some trivia. What Gustave Eiffel built inside the Statue of Liberty, and what a Boston World Cup pitch crew found ten inches underground that nobody had touched in twenty years.The LinkedIn comment thread for this episode is where the conversation is happening. Come and tell us where you land.

#729: The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June. Economists expected 115,000. Meanwhile, inflation hit a three-year high. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index - the Fed's favorite inflation gauge - jumped 4.1 percent year-over-year. That combination creates a problem. Weak jobs usually push the Fed to cut rates. Hot inflation pushes them to hike. In this First Friday episode, we break down which way the Fed might lean at its September meeting, and why traders see an 80 percent chance rates stay frozen for now. We also dig into Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chairman. His first official statement ran only 132 words, one of the shortest in Fed history. He cut forward guidance – the practice of making guesses about what the Fed will do next. He removed the names of dissenting voters. His statement mentioned price stability but skipped maximum employment, and we explain why that omission matters. Central banks around the world moved in the opposite direction. The European Central Bank raised rates for the first time since 2023, responding to a 10.9 percent surge in energy prices. The Bank of Japan hiked rates to their highest level in 31 years. Australia, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines and Israel joined in. Brazil was the only country to cut rates – down to 14.25 percent. We cover China's consumer spending decline, the first since the pandemic ended, driven by a 16.1 percent drop in auto sales and a real estate crash that drained middle-class wealth. We end the episode with a deep dive into NYC's rent freeze – who gets the benefit, and who pays the price? ⏱️ Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising segments. (00:00) US Job Market Cooling Off (04:52) Fed's Stance on Interest Rates (07:29) New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Priorities (17:21) Global Interest Rate Hikes (21:47) Impact of Stable US Rates & Global Trends (26:24) Inflation Data and Predictions (30:38) Consumer Sentiment: US vs. China (40:00) NYC Rent Freeze: History, Policies, and Today Share this episode with a friend, colleagues, and your landlord: https://affordanything.com/episode729 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episode recorded on 19 June 2026 at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum in Paris.Twice before, the world's savings and debts have piled up in the wrong places, and twice the imbalance broke something. The first time it took the Plaza Accord to fix it. The second time it took a global financial crisis.Now we are in a third wave. Gita Gopinath (Harvard, former IMF Chief Economist and First Deputy Managing Director) and Philip Lane (European Central Bank, CEPR) join Tim Phillips to ask what is different this time.Household and bank balance sheets are stronger than before 2008. But the fragility has moved to governments carrying much higher debt, and to non-bank financial institutions whose exposures and links to banks are only partly visible. Foreign investors hold US$40.7 trillion of US equities, 44% of world GDP outside the US, much of it riding on the AI boom.Lane's overriding principle: central banks can calm bond markets under stress, but they must be just as clear about what they will not do if debt is unsustainable.The research behind this episode:Bai, Chong-En, Gita Gopinath, Hélène Rey, and Axel Weber. 2026. "G7 Economists Memo on Global Imbalances." Prepared for the French Presidency of the G7, 28 March.The panel also draws on the fourth CEPR/Bruegel Paris Report, Paris Report 4: The New Global Imbalances, edited by Hélène Rey, Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (CEPR Press and Bruegel, 2026), free to download at cepr.org.Gopinath made the keynote presentation “The Third Wave: Addressing Global Imbalances” on 19 June at PSE.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, Gita Gopinath, and Philip Lane. 2026. "Addressing Global Imbalances." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). About the guestsGita Gopinath is the Gregory and Ania Coffey Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where her research spans international finance and macroeconomics, dollar dominance, exchange rates and sovereign debt. She was First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund from 2022 to 2025, and the Fund's Chief Economist from 2019 to 2022. Philip Lane is Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, and a Fellow of CEPR's International Macroeconomics and Finance programme. He was Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland from 2015 to 2019, and remains an honorary professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin, where his research covered financial globalisation and European monetary integration.Research cited in this episodeThe three waves of global imbalances. Gopinath frames today's imbalances as the third episode since the 1970s in which national savings and investment have pulled badly out of line, a framing she titled "The Third Wave" in her Atlanta Fed presentation. The first, in the early 1980s, produced the 1985 Plaza Accord, when the US and its G5 partners agreed to talk the dollar down after years of a strong currency and a widening trade deficit. The second built through the 2000s and unwound in the 2008 global financial crisis. In both, the US was the deficit country; the surplus moved from Japan to China.Foreign holdings of US equities. Gross foreign holdings of US equities stood at US$40.7 trillion, 44% of world GDP excluding the US (Gopinath 2026, citing US Treasury data). Gopinath's slides show 54% of gross foreign inflows into US government debt since 2007 and estimate that 61% of the deterioration in the US net international investment position since the global financial crisis has been driven by valuation effects rather than trade deficits.Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). Hedge funds, private credit funds, insurers and other institutions outside the regulated banking system now intermediate a large and growing share of global finance. Gopinath's slides show leveraged intermediation migrating from households and banks before the 2008 crisis toward government and non-bank financial institutions today, echoing the concerns set out in the G7 memo and the CEPR Paris Report.The 2020 "dash for cash." In March 2020, US Treasury yields rose sharply even as investors would normally be expected to flee to safety, a sign that market functioning, not just prices, can break down under stress. Gopinath cites the episode as evidence that hedge funds, now bigger players in Treasury market-making, can amplify rather than absorb shocks.ECB crisis tools: PEPP, OMT and TPI. Lane describes three instruments built since 2012 to separate monetary policy from market functioning: the Outright Monetary Transactions programme (2012), designed to backstop governments already in an ESM assistance programme; the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (2020), the ECB's flexible, country-varying response to Covid-19; and the Transmission Protection Instrument (2022), intended to calm unwarranted bond market panic without financing unsustainable debt.US federal debt and the fiscal deficit. Gopinath's slides put federal debt at 108% of GDP in 2025, up from 41% in 2007 and 39% in 2000 (source: Federal Reserve, FRED). In conversation she cites the US fiscal deficit at close to 7% of GDP, at a point in the cycle when the economy is strong. Note this is federal debt specifically; the G7 memo cites a broader measure, US general government debt, at around 120% of GDP, projected to reach around 140% by 2031. The two figures are not directly comparable and should not be conflated in the notes or on air.More VoxTalks Economics episodesThis episode sits alongside three earlier VoxTalks Economics conversations built around the CEPR/Bruegel Paris Report 4, The New Global Imbalances.Global Imbalances Redux, in which Maurice Obstfeld sets out the history of the three waves of imbalances and what today's policymakers can learn from how the first two were resolved.Rebalancing the Chinese Economy, in which Yiping Huang explains why decades of investment-led growth suppressed Chinese household consumption, and what it would take to reverse that.Stablecoins and Global Imbalances, in which Gilles Moec examines how dollar-backed stablecoins help fund the US deficit, and the regulatory gaps that leaves behind.Related reading on VoxEUWhy global imbalances matter again, and what to do about them, a VoxEU column drawn from Chapter 1 of Paris Report 4, setting out why imbalances have widened since 2018 and the risks of a disorderly unwind.Industrial policy, tariffs, and the return of global imbalances, which finds that tariffs are a weak tool for correcting current account imbalances and that industrial policy's effects run mainly through its impact on domestic saving and consumption.

European banks are doing something that looks irrational, preparing for something big while the rest of the mainstream focuses on the wrong people. The European Central Bank just raised its policy rate a few weeks ago, and officials over there in Frankfurt are warning they may hike again as they're still fixated on the inflation risk from the recent energy shock. The European banking system is not buying it, the inflation risk, the rate hikes, none of it. Literally not buying it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning PointIt isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. This video will help explain what we really do here at EDU, what's behind our methodology. Why we talk about curves and signals, but, more importantly, why no one else does. And then at the end, how to use this information managing money and crafting portfolio strategies. https://youtube.com/live/We2aP56WLJ8?feature=share----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

AM Best's Ann Modica and James Creedy-Smith examine the latest moves by the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve, discussing inflation risks, potential rate hikes, and what investors should watch in the months ahead.

The Bank for International Settlements warned that an AI-driven market rally could reverse and tighten financing across the economy. The report highlighted concentrated gains in large technology stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon, and said elevated valuations could correct if earnings expectations fade. The BIS noted that restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raises sensitivity for long duration growth equities. It cautioned that an equity slump could widen credit spreads, pressure leveraged loans, and slow private credit deployment. The institution urged supervisors to monitor nonbank leverage, margin practices, and market resiliency. Founders are advised to extend runway, revisit capital structure plans, and diversify sales pipelines to manage potential volatility.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

I sat down with Ranya Nehmeh, HR strategist, professor, and author of In Praise of the Office. Our conversation reinforced what I've been hearing from many clients lately. HR today isn't just policies or processes. -It's culture. -It's learning. -It's how people actually develop in a distributed world. HR is a strategy now -Culture, development, and psychological safety—all part of the role. The hybrid has to be designed -Onboarding, mentoring, and collaboration don't happen by default. If people come in only to sit on Zoom, something's off. Leaders set the tone -Presence, learning, and collaboration follow what leaders model. When work is designed with care, people feel it. And when people feel it, they show up differently. And that's where great work starts— and where retention improves as people choose to stay. --- Dr. Ranya Nehmeh is a people and talent management expert, future of work advocate, author, and adjunct university professor. With over 20 years of experience across both the private and public sectors, she has worked at the intersection of strategy, leadership, and human capital. Ranya began her career at a public relations speaker bureau in London before joining a global telecommunications company. She then moved into senior HR roles within international financial institutions, including the European Central Bank in Frankfurt and the OPEC Fund for International Development in Vienna. She has led projects related to talent management, internal talent marketplaces, strategic workforce planning, and leadership development, among other initiatives. She is the co-author of In Praise of the Office: The Limits to Hybrid and Remote Work (Wharton School Press, 2025) and author of The CHAMELEON Leader: Connecting with Millennials (2019). Her work explores how organizations can create more human-centered, agile, and sustainable workplaces. Ranya is also a frequent contributor to leading journals and publications. Her most recent articles appeared in the Harvard Business Review, Hybrid Still Isn't Working (July/August 2025), HR's New Role (May/June 2024), and It's Time To Do Away with "Dry Promotions" (July 2024) Connect with Jon Dwoskin: Twitter: @jdwoskin Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jonathan.dwoskin Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thejondwoskinexperience/ Website: https://jondwoskin.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jondwoskin/ Email: jon@jondwoskin.com Get Jon's Book: The Think Big Movement: Grow your business big. Very Big! Connect with Dr. Ranya Nehmeh:Website: https://www.ranyanehmeh.com *E - explicit language may be used in this podcast.

Iran's 14 points: making the world safe for Shia Theocracy. Obviously, Donald Trump putting his John Hancock to the Islamabad Memorandum at Versailles carries absolutely no historical resonance. But after the occupation of the Ruhr and the abdication of the Kaiser, what else could the Mullahs possibly put on their shopping list? We'll be picking through the carcrash, looking for signs of life in DC. Meanwhile, to cement his lousy week Donald got into a love tiff with Georgia Meloni at the G7. Was this a passing fugue of Italian passion? The flamethrower of a woman scorned? Or was it the beginning of the end of what we've dubbed the ‘Euroslopulists' – fake populists kept on a long-short leash by Brussels and the European Central Bank? Finally, Donald Trump – remember him – managed to scoop the world's press to the news that Keir Starmer would resign as British Prime Minister, being sure to spell his name wrong as a final boot in the teeth. Sir Keir has evoked the kind of visceral loathing among Brits normally reserved for child killers and queue jumpers. But who will they have left to blame when his affable dimwit successor blows up in half the time?

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington joins Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the latest moves from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and global rate markets. Worthington explains why the ECB's recent rate hike may already look too aggressive now that oil and gas prices have fallen back, and why the market may be overpricing further tightening if euro-area inflation undershoots target in 2027 and 2028. The two also examine why Europe's growth backdrop remains weaker than the US, how the ECB's single inflation mandate differs from the Fed's broader framework, and why those differences matter for yield curves and market pricing. They also discuss the UK gilt market, including the impact of political turnover, fiscal constraints and leadership changes on long-end yields, as well as the outlook for peripheral spreads in Europe. The episode closes with a look at anomalies in US SOFR curve pricing, including why Bloomberg Intelligence sees current expectations for multiple Fed hikes, followed quickly by cuts, as difficult to justify.

Kevin Warsh wants the U.S. central bank to talk less. But is silence really golden for the economy? Host Carmel Crimmins talks to Federal Reserve correspondent Howard Schneider and European Central Bank correspondent Balazs Koranyi about keeping policy debates behind closed doors and letting the markets figure things out for themselves. Sign up for the ⁠⁠⁠Reuters Econ World ⁠⁠⁠newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Catch Reuters Morning Bid ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠ For information on our privacy and data protection practices visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Further Listening:⁠ Trump's inflation problem⁠⁠ Kevin Warsh's policy trap Kevin Warsh: Can he deliver a Fed overhaul? Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh recently presided over his first policy meeting since taking the helm of the US central bank, vowing to restore price stability as officials signaled growing support for interest-rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, a key gauge of underlying euro-area price pressures was stronger than initially reported, supporting European Central Bank policymakers’ concerns about lingering inflation risks from the conflict in the Middle East. Former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Bill Dudley joins Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio Tuesday morning to discuss the regime change at the Fed and Alan Greenspan's legacy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The announcement of a 60 day ceasefire in the Middle East to allow detailed negotiations on what we understand could be a deal to end the conflict, has given the financial markets breathing space.First up on this week's podcast is the potential impact on energy prices through the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil, liquified natural gas and fertiliser.The Irish Times's Cliff Taylor assesses what we can expect from energy prices and how it could impact interest rates, a review of which is due from the European Central Bank in July.Ciaran also speaks to the manager of Toners Pub in Dublin, Luke Stedmon, about the boost in trade he's seen as a result of the FIFA World Cup.And while he's in the studio, how much is he charging for a pint, and how much has it climbed in his eight years working in the pub trade.Presented by Ciaran Hancock. Produced by JJ Vernon, John Casey and Andrew McNair. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Money stress? What can I actually do about it? by European Central Bank

The European Central Bank just raised rates on Thursday into an economy that is already shrinking. That sentence should sound familiar, because Europe has done this before. Not once. Twice. The two questions we now want to ask are, first, whether the ECB's action will pull others including the Fed into this rate hiking gambit. Second, how long could they hang on hawking before they have to turn around. And what can the markets tell us about both. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------If you have a retirement account and you've been wondering whether crypto belongs inside it, BlockTrustIRA is something worth looking into. Most crypto IRA platforms are self-directed. They give you access, but you still have to decide what to buy, when to sell, and when to rebalance.BlockTrustIRA is different. Right now, eligible viewers can get up to a $2,500 crypto bonus when they open and fund an account. Terms, conditions, funding minimums, and eligibility requirements apply.To learn more, go to https://eurodollarcrypto.com.This is a Paid advertisement. Not financial, investment, tax, or retirement advice. Crypto is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms apply---------------------------------------------------------------Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning PointIt isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. Let's fix that. Sunday, June 28 @ 5:30pm ET. Sign up below. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home-------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire: The SpaceX IPO and the social physiognomy of oligarchy / Text of tentative agreement exposes UAW bureaucracy's effort to betray American Axle strikers / Reinstate Nexteer worker Antwiane Sanders immediately! An injury to one is an injury to all! Remove the company's cops in the UAW bureaucracy! / European Central Bank lifts interest rate amid rising inflation

SpaceX has raised $75bn in a record-breaking initial public offering, and the European Central Bank became the first central bank in the G7 to increase borrowing costs in response to the Middle East energy shock. Plus, the World Cup could have a lot of empty seats. Mentioned in this podcast:Elon Musk's SpaceX raises $75bn in world's biggest IPOECB raises interest rates for first time since 2023Fifa faces empty seats as 180,000 World Cup tickets hit resale marketCredit: New York City Mayor's Office, European Central BankWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts The FT News Briefing is produced by Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, and Fiona Symon. Our editor is Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our intern is Cole van Miltenburg. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Flo Phillips is the FT's global head of audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • The SpaceX IPO • Rising US inflation • The European Central Bank's rate hike Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: 1. Source: J.P. Morgan as of 6/10/2026, Global Markets Strategy, June 2026. 2. Source: Warrington College of Business, University of Florida as of 4/23/2026. 3. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y US Headline CPI Inflation, January 2023 – May 2026. 4. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y US Headline CPI Inflation, May 2026. 5. Source: Macrobond, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y percent change in M2 (money supply) for US, UK eurozone and Japan, local currencies, monthly, January 2005 – April 2026. 6. Source: FactSet, as of 6/10/2026. University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, Expected change in prices over the next year, January 2026 – June 2026. 7. Source: Finaeon and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/9/2026. S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/1925 – 5/30/2026, y/y Headline US CPI Inflation, 12/31/1925 - 5/30/2026. 8. Source: Trading Economics, as of 6/2/2026. European Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions, September 2023 – June 2026. 9. Source: Trading Economics, as of 6/11/2026. Euro Area Interest Rate and y/y Eurozone Consumer Price Index, January 2026 – June 2026. 10. Source: Trading Economics, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y Eurozone Consumer Price Index, January 2022 – December 2022. 11. Source: Macrobond, as of 6/2/2026. GDP-weighted developed markets excluding US government bond yield spreads (10Y – 3M), daily 1/1/2025 – 5/28/2026. Want to dig deeper? • What to expect as tech mega-IPOs arrive: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en us/insights/market-commentary/in-orbit-on-tech-sentiment-and-ipos • Ken Fisher's thoughts on recent IPO activity: https://youtu.be/tn65mxE36z8 • How Ken Fisher views central bank decisions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0k7jMBie54 Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview12Ju n2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

The SpaceX IPO has captured the world's attention, but away from the headlines there are some major macroeconomic developments investors should be watching.In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down the latest US inflation report, discuss whether the Federal Reserve may avoid further rate hikes despite inflation rising to 4.2%, and analyse why the European Central Bank has become the first major Western central bank to raise rates in response to the recent energy shock.They also explore the growing political risk in the UK, where a little-known by-election could have significant implications for bond markets, government borrowing costs and the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.Plus, the pair give their predictions on where SpaceX shares could trade after one of the most anticipated IPOs in market history.(00:00) Intro & Themes in Focus(01:41) SpaceX IPO Mania(06:05) US Inflation Hits 4.2%(14:50) Will The Fed Hike?(20:11) ECB Hikes Rates(32:36) The UK By-Election Risk

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: weather is in the news; the U.S. Labor Department reported Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI; the European Central Bank voted to raise their benchmark interest rate, and what that means for the Federal Reserve meeting next week; the National Association of Realtors reported the May Existing Home Sales; Phil Flynn, Senior Market Analyst, Author of the Energy Report, explains why President Trump refrained from striking Iran over the last few weeks; oil prices reacted to Trump cancelling further planned strikes on Iran, Trump's announcement that peace talks have been brought to the highest levels of the Iranian leadership; gas prices continue to retreat; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a week packed with economic data, including a stronger-than-expected jobs report, elevated CPI and PPI inflation readings, and what they mean for the Federal Reserve's next move. As markets increasingly price out rate cuts, Lauren examines why the conversation may be shifting toward higher interest rates instead. She also explores the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike and what it could signal for the global inflation outlook. If you're trying to understand where interest rates, inflation, and economic growth are headed next, this episode highlights the key trends business leaders should be watching. Do you think the Fed's next move could be a rate increase rather than a rate cut? #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #FedWatch #EconomicForecast #JobsReport #CPI #PPI #ITREconomics

Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, on the increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank.

Wall Street is preparing for what could be the biggest IPO in history as SpaceX gets ready to begin trading on the public markets. We look at the final steps before launch, what investors can expect, and what the listing could mean for the wider technology and space sectors. Also on the programme, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years as policymakers respond to inflationary pressures across the eurozone. Nearly a year after the crash of Air India Flight 171, investigators are expected to provide an update. But the inquiry has become increasingly controversial, with competing theories about what caused the disaster and growing scrutiny of the investigation itself. And the World Cup kicks off in Mexico. We head to Atlanta, one of the tournament's host cities, to find out whether businesses and residents are ready for the economic opportunities and challenges that come with football's biggest event. Presenter: Leanna Byrne Producer: David Cann

Sam Vadas discusses the European Central Bank becoming the first international bank to raise rates since the Iran war signaling new inflation concerns. Meanwhile Chinese ADRs are under pressure with Alibaba (BABA), PDD Holdings (PDD), and JD.com (JD) all facing scrutiny.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

It's the first increase since 2023 but what will it mean for people? Our Economics and Public Affairs Editor David Murphy tells us more.

The US has launched new strikes on Iran, Ireland's burning through its corporate tax bonanza, and the European Central Bank is trying to rein in fintech Revolut's “self-guided missiles” in the region. Plus, the FT's George Hammond breaks down whether public market investors believe Elon Musk's SpaceX can reach its ambitious goals ahead of its initial public offering. Mentioned in this podcast:Ireland told to rein in spending of corporate tax windfallECB moved to rein in Revolut's ‘self-guided missiles' in EuropeSpaceX's $1.78tn IPO asks investors to buy Musk's moonshotsWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts The FT News Briefing is produced by Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, and Fiona Symon. Our editor is Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our intern is Cole van Miltenburg. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Flo Phillips is the FT's global head of audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

European banks are doing something that looks irrational. The European Central Bank is increasingly likely to raise its short-term policy rates again. Oil prices are still elevated. Energy costs are feeding into headline inflation. ECB officials keep coming on hawkish. And normally, if you believe short-term rates are going higher, the last thing you're going to do is rush into government bonds. But European banks are doing exactly that. And in huge amounts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------If you have a retirement account and you've been wondering whether crypto belongs inside it, BlockTrustIRA is something worth looking into. Most crypto IRA platforms are self-directed. They give you access, but you still have to decide what to buy, when to sell, and when to rebalance.BlockTrustIRA is different. Right now, eligible viewers can get up to a $2,500 crypto bonus when they open and fund an account. Terms, conditions, funding minimums, and eligibility requirements apply.To learn more, go to https://eurodollarcrypto.com.This is a Paid advertisement. Not financial, investment, tax, or retirement advice. Crypto is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms apply---------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Industrial slaughter in Longview: 11 workers killed in Washington's deadliest workplace disaster in nearly 100 years / Under cover of US-Iran negotiations, Israel steps up effort to annex Gaza / War on Iran could trigger a financial crisis, European Central Bank warns

Oil prices fell sharply after Iranian state television broadcast details of a peace proposal, mass drone production has turned the war effort around for Ukraine, and the European Central Bank warned US President Donald Trump risks triggering a financial crisis. Plus, AI opens the door for smaller, well-funded challengers to take market share from Big Four consultancies. Mentioned in this podcast:Oil falls as Iranian state television reports details of peace proposalRussian banks to arm themselves against Ukrainian dronesUkraine is turning the tablesTrump risks triggering financial crisis with Iran war, warns ECBHow AI threatens the giants of consultingWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Sonja Hutson, and produced by Katya Kumkova. Our show was mixed by Sam Giovinco. Additional help from David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The story of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy's rise and fall has been gripping France. There are allegations of a secret pact with a dictator and unexplained meetings between figures close to government and a known terrorist. And so much cash that party workers do not know what to do with it. The former French President was jailed last year for conspiring to fund his 2007 election campaign with money from the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. He is currently appealing his sentence - and he has some powerful supporters. Tristan Redman tells the story of how he became the first former French head of state to end up behind bars since Nazi collaborator, Philippe Pétain. Featuring investigative journalist, Fabrice Arfi from Mediapart; Daniele Klein whose brother was killed in the ‘French Lockerbie' and her niece Melanie who lost her father; Alain Minc, one of Nicolas Sarkozy's closest friends and advisers; the British writer and academic Andrew Hussey and Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, who was Sarkozy's finance minister.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.