Podcasts about European Central Bank

The US unveiled new tariffs to replace old ones, oil's jump above $100 deepened a global bond sell-off, and thousands of supporters of the youth-led “Cockroach” movement in India continued protesting over problems in the education system. Plus, the European Central Bank held interest rates, but other central banks may not follow suit. Mentioned in this podcast:US hits 60 countries with new duties as Donald Trump rebuilds tariff wall Oil hits $100 for first time since May while US stocks slide Oil price surge drives global bond sell-offIndia's Gen Z takes on ModiIndian police battle ‘Cockroach' protesters with batons and tear gasEuropean Central Bank holds interest rates at 2.25% after debating riseCredits: ANI / ReutersWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts The FT News Briefing is produced by Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, and Fiona Symon. Our editor is Marc Filippino. Our show is mixed by Sam Giovinco and Alex Higgins. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello, Peter Barber and David da Silva. Our intern is Cole van Miltenburg. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Flo Phillips is the FT's global head of audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry.Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything – accounts, investments, savings, and spending.  Use code REALVISION at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just $50.  Today's sponsor is Plus500 US. Take your trading to the next level with cross-market contracts, from precious metals to key indices, and more. Whether you're a seasoned trader in the Futures arena or brand new, Plus500's user-friendly trading platform offers you the advanced tools, market insights, and quick execution you've been looking for. Get started with Plus500 for as little as $100 at https://us.plus500.com. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Europe Today this Friday, our Europe Editor Maria Tadeo is in studio with all the latest information on her exclusive interview with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, discussing everything from Europe's economic future to next year's French Presidential elections.Europe Today is Euronews' daily podcast hosted by Maria Tadeo and Méabh Mc Mahon, broadcasting directly from Brussels, at the heart of Europe. Every morning, we deliver the top and exclusive stories shaping the European Union (EU) and beyond.Stay ahead with the key news and insights that matter in Europe today. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host John Tucker take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to U.S CPI and PPI data, along with a focus on three stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to what lays ahead for the European Central Bank as it grapples with a uncertain inflation landscape. In Asia – a look ahead to South Korea’s Constitution Day. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Today we learn that the European Central Bank secured key parliamentary backing for the launch of a Digital Euro, an electronic means of payment. Finally, Pastor Stan shares an incredible article how “Data Centers became more important than people”. 00:00 Intro 00:56 EU Breaks Free from US 03:17 Data Centers more important than People 13:52 The Beginning of a Pattern

Today we learn that the European Central Bank secured key parliamentary backing for the launch of a Digital Euro, an electronic means of payment. Finally, Pastor Stan shares an incredible article how “Data Centers became more important than people”. 00:00 Intro 00:56 EU Breaks Free from US 03:17 Data Centers more important than People 13:52 The Beginning of a Pattern

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup.00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade 03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China's Oil Buying Strike13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn't Slowing Down22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics

This month's recap covers what June 2026 actually meant for the industry, and it was not what anyone had pencilled in.The cheaper borrowing that stalled schemes were relying on did not arrive. The European Central Bank raised rates. The Fed held. The Bank of England held. And a spike in oil above 125 dollars a barrel, triggered by fears over the Strait of Hormuz, made central banks nervous about cutting at all. On the materials side, US tariffs on steel, aluminium and copper are sitting at 50 percent, with non-residential material costs rising at their fastest pace since 2022. One estimate puts 17,500 dollars of added cost onto a single new American home.Both doors closed in the same month.Then the split that was supposed to be temporary. Data centres are now a bigger construction category than offices. But the thing holding that work back is not money, it is power, and grid connections are running five to seven years behind the builds. The boom is real. The gate is megawatts.Plus a full recap of the three June briefings you may have missed, on safety tech, the AI price war, what happens when AI hands your client the knowledge you used to charge for, and why the first piece of reconstruction technology in Ukraine is not a crane.And some trivia. What Gustave Eiffel built inside the Statue of Liberty, and what a Boston World Cup pitch crew found ten inches underground that nobody had touched in twenty years.The LinkedIn comment thread for this episode is where the conversation is happening. Come and tell us where you land.

#729: The U.S. added 57,000 jobs in June. Economists expected 115,000. Meanwhile, inflation hit a three-year high. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index - the Fed's favorite inflation gauge - jumped 4.1 percent year-over-year. That combination creates a problem. Weak jobs usually push the Fed to cut rates. Hot inflation pushes them to hike. In this First Friday episode, we break down which way the Fed might lean at its September meeting, and why traders see an 80 percent chance rates stay frozen for now. We also dig into Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed Chairman. His first official statement ran only 132 words, one of the shortest in Fed history. He cut forward guidance – the practice of making guesses about what the Fed will do next. He removed the names of dissenting voters. His statement mentioned price stability but skipped maximum employment, and we explain why that omission matters. Central banks around the world moved in the opposite direction. The European Central Bank raised rates for the first time since 2023, responding to a 10.9 percent surge in energy prices. The Bank of Japan hiked rates to their highest level in 31 years. Australia, Norway, Indonesia, the Philippines and Israel joined in. Brazil was the only country to cut rates – down to 14.25 percent. We cover China's consumer spending decline, the first since the pandemic ended, driven by a 16.1 percent drop in auto sales and a real estate crash that drained middle-class wealth. We end the episode with a deep dive into NYC's rent freeze – who gets the benefit, and who pays the price? ⏱️ Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising segments. (00:00) US Job Market Cooling Off (04:52) Fed's Stance on Interest Rates (07:29) New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Priorities (17:21) Global Interest Rate Hikes (21:47) Impact of Stable US Rates & Global Trends (26:24) Inflation Data and Predictions (30:38) Consumer Sentiment: US vs. China (40:00) NYC Rent Freeze: History, Policies, and Today Share this episode with a friend, colleagues, and your landlord: https://affordanything.com/episode729 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Episode recorded on 19 June 2026 at the PSE-CEPR Policy Forum in Paris.Twice before, the world's savings and debts have piled up in the wrong places, and twice the imbalance broke something. The first time it took the Plaza Accord to fix it. The second time it took a global financial crisis.Now we are in a third wave. Gita Gopinath (Harvard, former IMF Chief Economist and First Deputy Managing Director) and Philip Lane (European Central Bank, CEPR) join Tim Phillips to ask what is different this time.Household and bank balance sheets are stronger than before 2008. But the fragility has moved to governments carrying much higher debt, and to non-bank financial institutions whose exposures and links to banks are only partly visible. Foreign investors hold US$40.7 trillion of US equities, 44% of world GDP outside the US, much of it riding on the AI boom.Lane's overriding principle: central banks can calm bond markets under stress, but they must be just as clear about what they will not do if debt is unsustainable.The research behind this episode:Bai, Chong-En, Gita Gopinath, Hélène Rey, and Axel Weber. 2026. "G7 Economists Memo on Global Imbalances." Prepared for the French Presidency of the G7, 28 March.The panel also draws on the fourth CEPR/Bruegel Paris Report, Paris Report 4: The New Global Imbalances, edited by Hélène Rey, Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Jeromin Zettelmeyer (CEPR Press and Bruegel, 2026), free to download at cepr.org.Gopinath made the keynote presentation “The Third Wave: Addressing Global Imbalances” on 19 June at PSE.To cite this episode:Phillips, Tim, Gita Gopinath, and Philip Lane. 2026. "Addressing Global Imbalances." VoxTalks Economics (podcast). About the guestsGita Gopinath is the Gregory and Ania Coffey Professor of Economics at Harvard University, where her research spans international finance and macroeconomics, dollar dominance, exchange rates and sovereign debt. She was First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund from 2022 to 2025, and the Fund's Chief Economist from 2019 to 2022. Philip Lane is Chief Economist and a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, and a Fellow of CEPR's International Macroeconomics and Finance programme. He was Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland from 2015 to 2019, and remains an honorary professor of economics at Trinity College Dublin, where his research covered financial globalisation and European monetary integration.Research cited in this episodeThe three waves of global imbalances. Gopinath frames today's imbalances as the third episode since the 1970s in which national savings and investment have pulled badly out of line, a framing she titled "The Third Wave" in her Atlanta Fed presentation. The first, in the early 1980s, produced the 1985 Plaza Accord, when the US and its G5 partners agreed to talk the dollar down after years of a strong currency and a widening trade deficit. The second built through the 2000s and unwound in the 2008 global financial crisis. In both, the US was the deficit country; the surplus moved from Japan to China.Foreign holdings of US equities. Gross foreign holdings of US equities stood at US$40.7 trillion, 44% of world GDP excluding the US (Gopinath 2026, citing US Treasury data). Gopinath's slides show 54% of gross foreign inflows into US government debt since 2007 and estimate that 61% of the deterioration in the US net international investment position since the global financial crisis has been driven by valuation effects rather than trade deficits.Non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs). Hedge funds, private credit funds, insurers and other institutions outside the regulated banking system now intermediate a large and growing share of global finance. Gopinath's slides show leveraged intermediation migrating from households and banks before the 2008 crisis toward government and non-bank financial institutions today, echoing the concerns set out in the G7 memo and the CEPR Paris Report.The 2020 "dash for cash." In March 2020, US Treasury yields rose sharply even as investors would normally be expected to flee to safety, a sign that market functioning, not just prices, can break down under stress. Gopinath cites the episode as evidence that hedge funds, now bigger players in Treasury market-making, can amplify rather than absorb shocks.ECB crisis tools: PEPP, OMT and TPI. Lane describes three instruments built since 2012 to separate monetary policy from market functioning: the Outright Monetary Transactions programme (2012), designed to backstop governments already in an ESM assistance programme; the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (2020), the ECB's flexible, country-varying response to Covid-19; and the Transmission Protection Instrument (2022), intended to calm unwarranted bond market panic without financing unsustainable debt.US federal debt and the fiscal deficit. Gopinath's slides put federal debt at 108% of GDP in 2025, up from 41% in 2007 and 39% in 2000 (source: Federal Reserve, FRED). In conversation she cites the US fiscal deficit at close to 7% of GDP, at a point in the cycle when the economy is strong. Note this is federal debt specifically; the G7 memo cites a broader measure, US general government debt, at around 120% of GDP, projected to reach around 140% by 2031. The two figures are not directly comparable and should not be conflated in the notes or on air.More VoxTalks Economics episodesThis episode sits alongside three earlier VoxTalks Economics conversations built around the CEPR/Bruegel Paris Report 4, The New Global Imbalances.Global Imbalances Redux, in which Maurice Obstfeld sets out the history of the three waves of imbalances and what today's policymakers can learn from how the first two were resolved.Rebalancing the Chinese Economy, in which Yiping Huang explains why decades of investment-led growth suppressed Chinese household consumption, and what it would take to reverse that.Stablecoins and Global Imbalances, in which Gilles Moec examines how dollar-backed stablecoins help fund the US deficit, and the regulatory gaps that leaves behind.Related reading on VoxEUWhy global imbalances matter again, and what to do about them, a VoxEU column drawn from Chapter 1 of Paris Report 4, setting out why imbalances have widened since 2018 and the risks of a disorderly unwind.Industrial policy, tariffs, and the return of global imbalances, which finds that tariffs are a weak tool for correcting current account imbalances and that industrial policy's effects run mainly through its impact on domestic saving and consumption.

European banks are doing something that looks irrational, preparing for something big while the rest of the mainstream focuses on the wrong people. The European Central Bank just raised its policy rate a few weeks ago, and officials over there in Frankfurt are warning they may hike again as they're still fixated on the inflation risk from the recent energy shock. The European banking system is not buying it, the inflation risk, the rate hikes, none of it. Literally not buying it. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning PointIt isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. This video will help explain what we really do here at EDU, what's behind our methodology. Why we talk about curves and signals, but, more importantly, why no one else does. And then at the end, how to use this information managing money and crafting portfolio strategies. https://youtube.com/live/We2aP56WLJ8?feature=share----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

AM Best's Ann Modica and James Creedy-Smith examine the latest moves by the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve, discussing inflation risks, potential rate hikes, and what investors should watch in the months ahead.

The Bank for International Settlements warned that an AI-driven market rally could reverse and tighten financing across the economy. The report highlighted concentrated gains in large technology stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon, and said elevated valuations could correct if earnings expectations fade. The BIS noted that restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raises sensitivity for long duration growth equities. It cautioned that an equity slump could widen credit spreads, pressure leveraged loans, and slow private credit deployment. The institution urged supervisors to monitor nonbank leverage, margin practices, and market resiliency. Founders are advised to extend runway, revisit capital structure plans, and diversify sales pipelines to manage potential volatility.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

I sat down with Ranya Nehmeh, HR strategist, professor, and author of In Praise of the Office. Our conversation reinforced what I've been hearing from many clients lately. HR today isn't just policies or processes. -It's culture. -It's learning. -It's how people actually develop in a distributed world. HR is a strategy now -Culture, development, and psychological safety—all part of the role. The hybrid has to be designed -Onboarding, mentoring, and collaboration don't happen by default. If people come in only to sit on Zoom, something's off. Leaders set the tone -Presence, learning, and collaboration follow what leaders model. When work is designed with care, people feel it. And when people feel it, they show up differently. And that's where great work starts— and where retention improves as people choose to stay. --- Dr. Ranya Nehmeh is a people and talent management expert, future of work advocate, author, and adjunct university professor. With over 20 years of experience across both the private and public sectors, she has worked at the intersection of strategy, leadership, and human capital. Ranya began her career at a public relations speaker bureau in London before joining a global telecommunications company. She then moved into senior HR roles within international financial institutions, including the European Central Bank in Frankfurt and the OPEC Fund for International Development in Vienna. She has led projects related to talent management, internal talent marketplaces, strategic workforce planning, and leadership development, among other initiatives. She is the co-author of In Praise of the Office: The Limits to Hybrid and Remote Work (Wharton School Press, 2025) and author of The CHAMELEON Leader: Connecting with Millennials (2019). Her work explores how organizations can create more human-centered, agile, and sustainable workplaces. Ranya is also a frequent contributor to leading journals and publications. Her most recent articles appeared in the Harvard Business Review, Hybrid Still Isn't Working (July/August 2025), HR's New Role (May/June 2024), and It's Time To Do Away with "Dry Promotions" (July 2024) Connect with Jon Dwoskin: Twitter: @jdwoskin Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/jonathan.dwoskin Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thejondwoskinexperience/ Website: https://jondwoskin.com/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jondwoskin/ Email: jon@jondwoskin.com Get Jon's Book: The Think Big Movement: Grow your business big. Very Big! Connect with Dr. Ranya Nehmeh:Website: https://www.ranyanehmeh.com *E - explicit language may be used in this podcast.

Iran's 14 points: making the world safe for Shia Theocracy. Obviously, Donald Trump putting his John Hancock to the Islamabad Memorandum at Versailles carries absolutely no historical resonance. But after the occupation of the Ruhr and the abdication of the Kaiser, what else could the Mullahs possibly put on their shopping list? We'll be picking through the carcrash, looking for signs of life in DC. Meanwhile, to cement his lousy week Donald got into a love tiff with Georgia Meloni at the G7. Was this a passing fugue of Italian passion? The flamethrower of a woman scorned? Or was it the beginning of the end of what we've dubbed the ‘Euroslopulists' – fake populists kept on a long-short leash by Brussels and the European Central Bank? Finally, Donald Trump – remember him – managed to scoop the world's press to the news that Keir Starmer would resign as British Prime Minister, being sure to spell his name wrong as a final boot in the teeth. Sir Keir has evoked the kind of visceral loathing among Brits normally reserved for child killers and queue jumpers. But who will they have left to blame when his affable dimwit successor blows up in half the time?

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington joins Ira Jersey on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast to discuss the latest moves from the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and global rate markets. Worthington explains why the ECB's recent rate hike may already look too aggressive now that oil and gas prices have fallen back, and why the market may be overpricing further tightening if euro-area inflation undershoots target in 2027 and 2028. The two also examine why Europe's growth backdrop remains weaker than the US, how the ECB's single inflation mandate differs from the Fed's broader framework, and why those differences matter for yield curves and market pricing. They also discuss the UK gilt market, including the impact of political turnover, fiscal constraints and leadership changes on long-end yields, as well as the outlook for peripheral spreads in Europe. The episode closes with a look at anomalies in US SOFR curve pricing, including why Bloomberg Intelligence sees current expectations for multiple Fed hikes, followed quickly by cuts, as difficult to justify.

Kevin Warsh wants the U.S. central bank to talk less. But is silence really golden for the economy? Host Carmel Crimmins talks to Federal Reserve correspondent Howard Schneider and European Central Bank correspondent Balazs Koranyi about keeping policy debates behind closed doors and letting the markets figure things out for themselves. Sign up for the ⁠⁠⁠Reuters Econ World ⁠⁠⁠newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Catch Reuters Morning Bid ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠ For information on our privacy and data protection practices visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Further Listening:⁠ Trump's inflation problem⁠⁠ Kevin Warsh's policy trap Kevin Warsh: Can he deliver a Fed overhaul? Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh recently presided over his first policy meeting since taking the helm of the US central bank, vowing to restore price stability as officials signaled growing support for interest-rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, a key gauge of underlying euro-area price pressures was stronger than initially reported, supporting European Central Bank policymakers’ concerns about lingering inflation risks from the conflict in the Middle East. Former New York Fed President and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Bill Dudley joins Bloomberg Surveillance with Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio Tuesday morning to discuss the regime change at the Fed and Alan Greenspan's legacy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The announcement of a 60 day ceasefire in the Middle East to allow detailed negotiations on what we understand could be a deal to end the conflict, has given the financial markets breathing space.First up on this week's podcast is the potential impact on energy prices through the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for oil, liquified natural gas and fertiliser.The Irish Times's Cliff Taylor assesses what we can expect from energy prices and how it could impact interest rates, a review of which is due from the European Central Bank in July.Ciaran also speaks to the manager of Toners Pub in Dublin, Luke Stedmon, about the boost in trade he's seen as a result of the FIFA World Cup.And while he's in the studio, how much is he charging for a pint, and how much has it climbed in his eight years working in the pub trade.Presented by Ciaran Hancock. Produced by JJ Vernon, John Casey and Andrew McNair. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Money stress? What can I actually do about it? by European Central Bank

① The US and Iran have reached a framework deal for peace and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Will it return the region to a status that existed before the war? (00:52) ② What's at stake at the G7 summit in France? (14:41) ③ The European Central Bank has raised its interest rates for the first time since 2023. We explore the urgency for Europe to tackle inflation amid surging energy prices. (25:28) ④ Voters in Switzerland have rejected a nationwide referendum to cap the country's population at 10 million by 2050. Why does Switzerland prefer to maintain economic ties with the European Union? (35:09) ⑤ The International Labor Organization has adopted the world's first binding agreement setting out employment standards for digital platform workers. Why is it important to provide adequate safeguards for gig economy workers? (44:57)

Following the European Central Bank's first rate hike for nearly three years, Chris Hare, Senior European Economist, looks at whether there is more tightening to come.Click here for appropriate Disclosures, including analyst certifications, and Disclaimers that must be viewed with this podcast: https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/101/BgqWLbhStay connected and access free to view reports and videos from HSBC Global Investment Research follow us on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/hsbcresearch/ or click here: https://www.gbm.hsbc.com/insights/global-research

The European Central Bank just raised rates on Thursday into an economy that is already shrinking. That sentence should sound familiar, because Europe has done this before. Not once. Twice. The two questions we now want to ask are, first, whether the ECB's action will pull others including the Fed into this rate hiking gambit. Second, how long could they hang on hawking before they have to turn around. And what can the markets tell us about both. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------If you have a retirement account and you've been wondering whether crypto belongs inside it, BlockTrustIRA is something worth looking into. Most crypto IRA platforms are self-directed. They give you access, but you still have to decide what to buy, when to sell, and when to rebalance.BlockTrustIRA is different. Right now, eligible viewers can get up to a $2,500 crypto bonus when they open and fund an account. Terms, conditions, funding minimums, and eligibility requirements apply.To learn more, go to https://eurodollarcrypto.com.This is a Paid advertisement. Not financial, investment, tax, or retirement advice. Crypto is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms apply---------------------------------------------------------------Webinar June 2026: Why Smart Investors Keep Missing Every Major Economic Turning PointIt isn't that they're buying the wrong assets. They're using a broken map of the monetary system — and getting it wrong leads to catastrophic decisions. Let's fix that. Sunday, June 28 @ 5:30pm ET. Sign up below. https://webinar.eurodollar-university.com/home-------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire: The SpaceX IPO and the social physiognomy of oligarchy / Text of tentative agreement exposes UAW bureaucracy's effort to betray American Axle strikers / Reinstate Nexteer worker Antwiane Sanders immediately! An injury to one is an injury to all! Remove the company's cops in the UAW bureaucracy! / European Central Bank lifts interest rate amid rising inflation

The European Central Bank has raised its interest rates for the first time in almost three years.To find out more Bobby's joined by economist Jim Power.

SpaceX has raised $75bn in a record-breaking initial public offering, and the European Central Bank became the first central bank in the G7 to increase borrowing costs in response to the Middle East energy shock. Plus, the World Cup could have a lot of empty seats. Mentioned in this podcast:Elon Musk's SpaceX raises $75bn in world's biggest IPOECB raises interest rates for first time since 2023Fifa faces empty seats as 180,000 World Cup tickets hit resale marketCredit: New York City Mayor's Office, European Central BankWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts The FT News Briefing is produced by Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, and Fiona Symon. Our editor is Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our intern is Cole van Miltenburg. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Flo Phillips is the FT's global head of audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The economy and markets can feel dizzying and ever changing. That's where we can help. Fisher Investments' “This Week in Review” is a weekly segment designed to highlight a few things you may have missed this week, what they could mean for financial markets and why they matter to investors like you. This week, Fisher Investments reviews: • The SpaceX IPO • Rising US inflation • The European Central Bank's rate hike Below are the sources for all data cited in today's show: 1. Source: J.P. Morgan as of 6/10/2026, Global Markets Strategy, June 2026. 2. Source: Warrington College of Business, University of Florida as of 4/23/2026. 3. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y US Headline CPI Inflation, January 2023 – May 2026. 4. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y US Headline CPI Inflation, May 2026. 5. Source: Macrobond, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y percent change in M2 (money supply) for US, UK eurozone and Japan, local currencies, monthly, January 2005 – April 2026. 6. Source: FactSet, as of 6/10/2026. University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, Expected change in prices over the next year, January 2026 – June 2026. 7. Source: Finaeon and US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 6/9/2026. S&P 500 Total Return Index, 12/31/1925 – 5/30/2026, y/y Headline US CPI Inflation, 12/31/1925 - 5/30/2026. 8. Source: Trading Economics, as of 6/2/2026. European Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions, September 2023 – June 2026. 9. Source: Trading Economics, as of 6/11/2026. Euro Area Interest Rate and y/y Eurozone Consumer Price Index, January 2026 – June 2026. 10. Source: Trading Economics, as of 6/10/2026. Y/y Eurozone Consumer Price Index, January 2022 – December 2022. 11. Source: Macrobond, as of 6/2/2026. GDP-weighted developed markets excluding US government bond yield spreads (10Y – 3M), daily 1/1/2025 – 5/28/2026. Want to dig deeper? • What to expect as tech mega-IPOs arrive: https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en us/insights/market-commentary/in-orbit-on-tech-sentiment-and-ipos • Ken Fisher's thoughts on recent IPO activity: https://youtu.be/tn65mxE36z8 • How Ken Fisher views central bank decisions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0k7jMBie54 Have feedback for this Fisher Investments video? Share your thoughts on this episode in just 1 minute by filling out this survey: https://fi.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_6Vw1ezlogR044S2?VideoCode=WeekInReview12Ju n2026 Connect with Fisher Investments on: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/fisherinvest • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/fisher-investments • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/fisher.investments/ • TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@fisher_investments You can also follow Ken Fisher here: • Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/KenFisher.FisherInvestments • X - https://twitter.com/KennethLFisher • LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/ken-fisher/ • Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/kenfisher_fisherinvestments/ Investing in securities involves a risk of loss. Past performance is never a guarantee of future returns. Investing in foreign stock markets involves additional risks, such as the risk of currency fluctuations. The foregoing constitutes the general views of Fisher Investments and should not be regarded as personalized investment advice. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation. The opinions expressed are subject to change without notice.

The SpaceX IPO has captured the world's attention, but away from the headlines there are some major macroeconomic developments investors should be watching.In this episode of the Market Maker Podcast, Anthony Cheung and Piers Curran break down the latest US inflation report, discuss whether the Federal Reserve may avoid further rate hikes despite inflation rising to 4.2%, and analyse why the European Central Bank has become the first major Western central bank to raise rates in response to the recent energy shock.They also explore the growing political risk in the UK, where a little-known by-election could have significant implications for bond markets, government borrowing costs and the future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer.Plus, the pair give their predictions on where SpaceX shares could trade after one of the most anticipated IPOs in market history.(00:00) Intro & Themes in Focus(01:41) SpaceX IPO Mania(06:05) US Inflation Hits 4.2%(14:50) Will The Fed Hike?(20:11) ECB Hikes Rates(32:36) The UK By-Election Risk

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: weather is in the news; the U.S. Labor Department reported Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI; the European Central Bank voted to raise their benchmark interest rate, and what that means for the Federal Reserve meeting next week; the National Association of Realtors reported the May Existing Home Sales; Phil Flynn, Senior Market Analyst, Author of the Energy Report, explains why President Trump refrained from striking Iran over the last few weeks; oil prices reacted to Trump cancelling further planned strikes on Iran, Trump's announcement that peace talks have been brought to the highest levels of the Iranian leadership; gas prices continue to retreat; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a week packed with economic data, including a stronger-than-expected jobs report, elevated CPI and PPI inflation readings, and what they mean for the Federal Reserve's next move. As markets increasingly price out rate cuts, Lauren examines why the conversation may be shifting toward higher interest rates instead. She also explores the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike and what it could signal for the global inflation outlook. If you're trying to understand where interest rates, inflation, and economic growth are headed next, this episode highlights the key trends business leaders should be watching. Do you think the Fed's next move could be a rate increase rather than a rate cut? #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #FedWatch #EconomicForecast #JobsReport #CPI #PPI #ITREconomics

Gabriel Makhlouf, Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, on the increase in interest rates by the European Central Bank.

Kevin discusses and covers the following stories: weather is in the news; the U.S. Labor Department reported Weekly Initial Jobless Claims; the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI; the European Central Bank voted to raise their benchmark interest rate, and what that means for the Federal Reserve meeting next week; the National Association of Realtors reported the May Existing Home Sales; Phil Flynn, Senior Market Analyst, Author of the Energy Report, explains why President Trump refrained from striking Iran over the last few weeks; oil prices reacted to Trump cancelling further planned strikes on Iran, Trump's announcement that peace talks have been brought to the highest levels of the Iranian leadership; gas prices continue to retreat; Kevin has the details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and opinions. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The European Central Bank has announced its first interest rate increase in almost three years, raising its benchmark rate as it seeks to tackle rising inflation across the eurozone.     The move comes amid growing concerns over the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on global energy prices and the wider economy, and it's a decision that will have real consequences for mortgage holders, savers and households already facing cost-of-living pressures.    To help us understand what this latest ECB decision means for Ireland, and what could lie ahead for borrowers and the wider economy, Alan Morrissey was joined by Ennis native and Assistant Professor of Social Policy at University College Dublin, Micheál Collins. Image (c) claudiodivizia via Canva

What's really happening in Iran? The European Central Bank is going to suffocate the economy. The future of money and Ai. Global inflation rips higher. The Bank of Canada is stuck in an uncomfortable dilemma. Start an investment portfolio that's built to perform with Neighbourhood Holdings! For Mortgage Brokers: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehour-brokersFor Investors and Advisors: https://www.neighbourhood.com/looniehourJoin Seeking Alpha Premium And Get 25% Off Today!: https://link.seekingalpha.com/52636H6/4G6SHH/✉️ Media & Real Estate Inquiries: steve@stevesaretsky.comStay up to date with our information -

Wall Street is preparing for what could be the biggest IPO in history as SpaceX gets ready to begin trading on the public markets. We look at the final steps before launch, what investors can expect, and what the listing could mean for the wider technology and space sectors. Also on the programme, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years as policymakers respond to inflationary pressures across the eurozone. Nearly a year after the crash of Air India Flight 171, investigators are expected to provide an update. But the inquiry has become increasingly controversial, with competing theories about what caused the disaster and growing scrutiny of the investigation itself. And the World Cup kicks off in Mexico. We head to Atlanta, one of the tournament's host cities, to find out whether businesses and residents are ready for the economic opportunities and challenges that come with football's biggest event. Presenter: Leanna Byrne Producer: David Cann

Sam Vadas discusses the European Central Bank becoming the first international bank to raise rates since the Iran war signaling new inflation concerns. Meanwhile Chinese ADRs are under pressure with Alibaba (BABA), PDD Holdings (PDD), and JD.com (JD) all facing scrutiny.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

It's the first increase since 2023 but what will it mean for people? Our Economics and Public Affairs Editor David Murphy tells us more.

While European markets proved more resilient, US equities declined amid renewed escalation in the Middle East and fresh inflation data highlighting mounting pressure on US household budgets, driven in part by higher energy costs. In today's episode, Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, shares his outlook on gold and silver in this environment. We also hear from Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who previews the European Central Bank's upcoming rate decision and discusses the implications for investors.(00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content (00:41) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content (06:16) - Update on gold: Carsten Menke. Head of Next Generation Research, Product & Investment Content (09:42) - ECB expectations & investment impact: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research (12:56) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

The US has launched new strikes on Iran, Ireland's burning through its corporate tax bonanza, and the European Central Bank is trying to rein in fintech Revolut's “self-guided missiles” in the region. Plus, the FT's George Hammond breaks down whether public market investors believe Elon Musk's SpaceX can reach its ambitious goals ahead of its initial public offering. Mentioned in this podcast:Ireland told to rein in spending of corporate tax windfallECB moved to rein in Revolut's ‘self-guided missiles' in EuropeSpaceX's $1.78tn IPO asks investors to buy Musk's moonshotsWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts The FT News Briefing is produced by Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, Saffeya Ahmed, Katya Kumkova, and Fiona Symon. Our editor is Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello and David da Silva. Our intern is Cole van Miltenburg. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Flo Phillips is the FT's global head of audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BUY GOLD & SILVER HERE: https://firstnationalbullion.com/schedule-consult/ Avoid CBDCs! HELP SUPPORT US AS WE DOCUMENT HISTORY HERE: https://gogetfunding.com/help-keep-wam-alive/# Josh Sigurdson talks with Mark Gonzales about the "flippening" of gold and treasuries as we see for the first time ever, gold making up a larger percentage of foreign reserves than US treasuries. The European Central Bank reported this week that gold has overtaken US treasuries internationally. Gold holdings are at 27% while US treasuries are at 22%. This is a sign of a massive shift away from the US hegemony system while at the same time a sign of a massive move towards gold and precious metals in general. In this video, Mark delves into what this actually means to treasuries, the US economy and of course gold and silver. Simultaneously we have once again word from President Trump that he wants a full physical audit of Fort Knox. This comes as multiple countries attempt to repatriate their gold. This includes France which interestingly was a major reason the US went off the gold standard in the 1970s into the fiat system. President Charles de Gaulle in 1969 demanded France's gold back. The US didn't actually have that gold. Nixon paid them back in debt during the transfer into the fiat system. Interesting to see such history rhyme in this way. It is highly unlikely Fort Knox has the gold they claim they do. This could lead to the market recognizing vast volumes of scarcity. What does all of this mean for you? We break this down in the video. Prepare yourselves! Stay tuned for more from WAM! GET 10% OFF ON SHILAJIT FROM DR. KAUFMAN WHEN YOU USE CODE WAM10 HERE: https://medauthentica.com/discount/WAM10?redirect=/products/authentica-shilajit%3Fsca_ref=10867124.wrNV3jkYSaMg9 GET HEIRLOOM SEEDS & NON GMO SURVIVAL FOOD HERE: https://heavensharvest.com/wam USE Code WAM to save 25% plus free shipping! USE Code WAM50 for 50% off on select items like the #10 cans & MRE packs! GET YOUR WAV WATCH HERE: https://buy.wavwatch.com/WAM Use Code WAM to save $100 and purchase amazing healing frequency technology! GET YOUR APRICOT SEEDS at the life-saving Richardson Nutritional Center HERE: https://rncstore.com/r?id=bg8qc1 Use code JOSH to save money! Get Your SUPER-SUPPLIMENTS HERE: https://vni.life/wam Use Code WAM15 & Save 15%! Life changing formulas you can't find anywhere else! Get local, healthy, pasture raised meat delivered to your door here: https://wildpastures.com/promos/save-20-for-life/bonus15?oid=6&affid=321 USE THE LINK & get 20% off for life and $15 off your first box! DITCH YOUR DOCTOR! https://www.livelongerformula.com/wam Get a natural health practitioner and work with Christian Yordanov! Mention WAM and get a FREE masterclass! You will ALSO get a FREE metabolic function assessment! PayPal: ancientwonderstelevision@gmail.com FIND OUR CoinTree page here: https://cointr.ee/joshsigurdson PURCHASE MERECHANDISE HERE: https://world-alternative-media.creator-spring.com/ JOIN US on SubscribeStar here: https://www.subscribestar.com/world-alternative-media For subscriber only content! Pledge here! Just a dollar a month can help us alive! https://www.patreon.com/user?u=2652072&ty=h&u=2652072 BITCOIN ADDRESS: 18d1WEnYYhBRgZVbeyLr6UfiJhrQygcgNU World Alternative Media 2026

European banks are doing something that looks irrational. The European Central Bank is increasingly likely to raise its short-term policy rates again. Oil prices are still elevated. Energy costs are feeding into headline inflation. ECB officials keep coming on hawkish. And normally, if you believe short-term rates are going higher, the last thing you're going to do is rush into government bonds. But European banks are doing exactly that. And in huge amounts. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis-------------------------------------------------------------If you have a retirement account and you've been wondering whether crypto belongs inside it, BlockTrustIRA is something worth looking into. Most crypto IRA platforms are self-directed. They give you access, but you still have to decide what to buy, when to sell, and when to rebalance.BlockTrustIRA is different. Right now, eligible viewers can get up to a $2,500 crypto bonus when they open and fund an account. Terms, conditions, funding minimums, and eligibility requirements apply.To learn more, go to https://eurodollarcrypto.com.This is a Paid advertisement. Not financial, investment, tax, or retirement advice. Crypto is volatile and may lose value. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Terms apply---------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUI'll also be active on Bravais Social - a new AI-centered social network designed for professionals and knowledge workers. The platform aims to bring together a wider range of tools and functionalities tailored specifically for professional interaction, research, and knowledge exchange in one place. You can find me here: https://bravais.social/profile/edu

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, host Rebecca Christie discusses the European Commission's spring economic forecast with Bruegel's Andreas Billmeier and Mahmood Pradhan. Growth is slowing down while inflation surges in response to higher energy prices. Is the job market on the brink of a bigger slump? Will energy markets adjust again or will this cycle last longer? How might the European Central Bank react? Looking outside the European Union, how is the UK economy faring? Will the costs of Brexit force a reassessment of UK-EU relations in London? As long as global conditions remain so uncertain, European economies are unlikely to bounce back – so how can policymakers find the growth they need? With bigger economies like Germany and Italy in the doldrums while Poland, Denmark and Sweden show more resilience, how should the EU respond and what could be coming next? Relevant research: European Commission (2026) 'Spring 2026 economic forecast: Slowdown in growth as energy shock drives up inflation', 21 May  Weder di Mauro, B. and J. Zettelmeyer (2026) 'The new global imbalances: why care, why now and what should be done?', Essay 01/2026, Bruegel

War in the Middle East, soaring energy prices and upside risks to inflation are clouding the financial stability outlook for the euro area. How resilient are banks and markets? Are investors underestimating geopolitical risks? And how exposed is the financial system to stretched asset valuations? In this episode of Euro Matters, Paul Gordon speaks with John Fell about these questions and more. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Further reading: Financial Stability review at a glance https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Financial Stability Review, May 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202605~50566915a7.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank

More than any single institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global financial markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), for almost a century, the Fed's underlying philosophy and operations approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. Over The Chair's eight episodes, Tim Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's most consequential chiefs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. The Powell podcast was meant to be the last. But, after Kevin Warsh took over from Powell on 22 May 2026 and started preparing for his first FOMC meeting as chairman in mid-June, a ninth episode became irresistible. Who is this Republican hawk-turned-dove? As one policymaker among 12, has he over-promised to a volatile president? To discuss Warsh, Tim is joined by three "Fed watchers" – Claire Jones, Michael Redmond and Catarina Saraiva. Claire, who used to “watch” the European Central Bank for the Financial Times, is now the FT's US economics editor and has transferred her monitoring skills to the Fed. Catarina is a 17-year veteran at Bloomberg News, reporting exclusively on the Fed and US economics since 2019. Michael has been Medley Advisors' Fed analyst since 2022, having worked as an economist at the US Treasury and the Kansas City Fed. "I think [Warsh] has upset a lot of people with the criticisms that he's had of the Fed," says Claire Jones. "I think there's just this sense where people are worried because they're thinking: 'What did you have to say in order to get this job? What have you promised to the administration in order to get this job?' So, there's those issues of trust ... However, he is very charming; he's been at the Fed before; he knows how the game is played. So, I don't think that's necessarily entirely insurmountable". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

Industrial slaughter in Longview: 11 workers killed in Washington's deadliest workplace disaster in nearly 100 years / Under cover of US-Iran negotiations, Israel steps up effort to annex Gaza / War on Iran could trigger a financial crisis, European Central Bank warns

Oil prices fell sharply after Iranian state television broadcast details of a peace proposal, mass drone production has turned the war effort around for Ukraine, and the European Central Bank warned US President Donald Trump risks triggering a financial crisis. Plus, AI opens the door for smaller, well-funded challengers to take market share from Big Four consultancies. Mentioned in this podcast:Oil falls as Iranian state television reports details of peace proposalRussian banks to arm themselves against Ukrainian dronesUkraine is turning the tablesTrump risks triggering financial crisis with Iran war, warns ECBHow AI threatens the giants of consultingWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Sonja Hutson, and produced by Katya Kumkova. Our show was mixed by Sam Giovinco. Additional help from David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The story of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy's rise and fall has been gripping France. There are allegations of a secret pact with a dictator and unexplained meetings between figures close to government and a known terrorist. And so much cash that party workers do not know what to do with it. The former French President was jailed last year for conspiring to fund his 2007 election campaign with money from the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. He is currently appealing his sentence - and he has some powerful supporters. Tristan Redman tells the story of how he became the first former French head of state to end up behind bars since Nazi collaborator, Philippe Pétain. Featuring investigative journalist, Fabrice Arfi from Mediapart; Daniele Klein whose brother was killed in the ‘French Lockerbie' and her niece Melanie who lost her father; Alain Minc, one of Nicolas Sarkozy's closest friends and advisers; the British writer and academic Andrew Hussey and Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, who was Sarkozy's finance minister.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.