Podcasts about European Central Bank

Wall Street is preparing for what could be the biggest IPO in history as SpaceX gets ready to begin trading on the public markets. We look at the final steps before launch, what investors can expect, and what the listing could mean for the wider technology and space sectors. Also on the programme, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in almost three years as policymakers respond to inflationary pressures across the eurozone. Nearly a year after the crash of Air India Flight 171, investigators are expected to provide an update. But the inquiry has become increasingly controversial, with competing theories about what caused the disaster and growing scrutiny of the investigation itself. And the World Cup kicks off in Mexico. We head to Atlanta, one of the tournament's host cities, to find out whether businesses and residents are ready for the economic opportunities and challenges that come with football's biggest event. Presenter: Leanna Byrne Producer: David Cann

It's the first increase since 2023 but what will it mean for people? Our Economics and Public Affairs Editor David Murphy tells us more.

War in the Middle East, soaring energy prices and upside risks to inflation are clouding the financial stability outlook for the euro area. How resilient are banks and markets? Are investors underestimating geopolitical risks? And how exposed is the financial system to stretched asset valuations? In this episode of Euro Matters, Paul Gordon speaks with John Fell about these questions and more. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Further reading: Financial Stability review at a glance https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/index.en.html Financial Stability Review, May 2026 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202605~50566915a7.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank

More than any single institution, the US Federal Reserve drives global financial markets with its decisions and communications. While its interest rates are set by the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), for almost a century, the Fed's underlying philosophy and operations approach have been moulded by one person: the Chair of the Board of Governors. Over The Chair's eight episodes, Tim Jones talked to authors of books about the Fed's most consequential chiefs – Marriner Eccles, Bill Martin, Arthur Burns, Paul Volcker, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell. The Powell podcast was meant to be the last. But, after Kevin Warsh took over from Powell on 22 May 2026 and started preparing for his first FOMC meeting as chairman in mid-June, a ninth episode became irresistible. Who is this Republican hawk-turned-dove? As one policymaker among 12, has he over-promised to a volatile president? To discuss Warsh, Tim is joined by three "Fed watchers" – Claire Jones, Michael Redmond and Catarina Saraiva. Claire, who used to “watch” the European Central Bank for the Financial Times, is now the FT's US economics editor and has transferred her monitoring skills to the Fed. Catarina is a 17-year veteran at Bloomberg News, reporting exclusively on the Fed and US economics since 2019. Michael has been Medley Advisors' Fed analyst since 2022, having worked as an economist at the US Treasury and the Kansas City Fed. "I think [Warsh] has upset a lot of people with the criticisms that he's had of the Fed," says Claire Jones. "I think there's just this sense where people are worried because they're thinking: 'What did you have to say in order to get this job? What have you promised to the administration in order to get this job?' So, there's those issues of trust ... However, he is very charming; he's been at the Fed before; he knows how the game is played. So, I don't think that's necessarily entirely insurmountable". Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/finance

Industrial slaughter in Longview: 11 workers killed in Washington's deadliest workplace disaster in nearly 100 years / Under cover of US-Iran negotiations, Israel steps up effort to annex Gaza / War on Iran could trigger a financial crisis, European Central Bank warns

Oil prices fell sharply after Iranian state television broadcast details of a peace proposal, mass drone production has turned the war effort around for Ukraine, and the European Central Bank warned US President Donald Trump risks triggering a financial crisis. Plus, AI opens the door for smaller, well-funded challengers to take market share from Big Four consultancies. Mentioned in this podcast:Oil falls as Iranian state television reports details of peace proposalRussian banks to arm themselves against Ukrainian dronesUkraine is turning the tablesTrump risks triggering financial crisis with Iran war, warns ECBHow AI threatens the giants of consultingWant to get in touch? Email us at podcasts@ft.comNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted by Sonja Hutson, and produced by Katya Kumkova. Our show was mixed by Sam Giovinco. Additional help from David da Silva. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

En Capital Intereconomía seguimos la apertura del Ibex 35 y del resto de bolsas europeas en una sesión marcada por la política monetaria, la energía y la inteligencia artificial. En el análisis de mercados, David Cortina, responsable de renta variable de Santander Private Banking, analiza el comportamiento de compañías como Naturgy, beneficiada por la subida del gas derivada de la tensión con Irán y por la salida de CVC de su accionariado, aunque persisten dudas sobre la estrategia de crecimiento inorgánico y el futuro del management. También pone el foco en el sector tecnológico y en la necesidad de seleccionar cuidadosamente los ganadores de la revolución de la IA, diferenciando entre fabricantes de hardware y compañías de software. Destaca además el papel de SK hynix como proveedor clave de memoria avanzada para NVIDIA en plena escasez de chips ligados a inteligencia artificial. En clave macroeconómica, analiza las advertencias inflacionarias de Kazuo Ueda y Neel Kashkari sobre los efectos persistentes del encarecimiento energético y anticipa una posible subida de tipos de 25 puntos básicos por parte del European Central Bank en junio, mientras considera menos probable un movimiento inmediato de la Reserva Federal. Además, el mercado vigila la debilidad del consumo interno y el próximo dato del PCE estadounidense, clave para calibrar la presión inflacionaria en EE.UU. Terminamos la hora con el consultorio de bolsa junto a Miguel Méndez, analista independiente.

The story of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy's rise and fall has been gripping France. There are allegations of a secret pact with a dictator and unexplained meetings between figures close to government and a known terrorist. And so much cash that party workers do not know what to do with it. The former French President was jailed last year for conspiring to fund his 2007 election campaign with money from the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. He is currently appealing his sentence - and he has some powerful supporters. Tristan Redman tells the story of how he became the first former French head of state to end up behind bars since Nazi collaborator, Philippe Pétain. Featuring investigative journalist, Fabrice Arfi from Mediapart; Daniele Klein whose brother was killed in the ‘French Lockerbie' and her niece Melanie who lost her father; Alain Minc, one of Nicolas Sarkozy's closest friends and advisers; the British writer and academic Andrew Hussey and Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, who was Sarkozy's finance minister.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

People in the Netherlands on average spend less time working than any other advanced country - just 32 hours a week. Could the rest of the world follow their lead? On this week's episode of Econ World, guest host Ethan Plotkin meets workers in Amsterdam who have Fridays off and speaks with the chief economist at the Dutch Statistics Office to hear how shorter work hours are impacting the economy. Sign up for the ⁠Reuters Econ World ⁠⁠⁠newsletter⁠⁠⁠ Catch Reuters Morning Bid ⁠here⁠ For information on our privacy and data protection practices visit the Thomson Reuters Privacy Statement. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Further listening Labor market limbo Interview with European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane Live podcast: The affordability gap Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Catherine's favourite falafel wrap went from €5 to €7 – and it sent her down a rabbit hole. Join our host as she explores a simple question: why do prices seem to be going up all the time? Along the way, you'll uncover what's behind the cost-of-living squeeze, why it hits people differently and what the ECB is doing about it. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Further reading: Espresso Economics – Inflation stats vs your reality: the disconnect explained https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mi-gZoA9WGk ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your day.On today's podcast:(1) A potential challenge to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership from one of the nation’s most popular Labour Party politicians sent the pound tumbling by casting doubt on the future of his government and its efforts to rein in the national debt.(2) US President Donald Trump signaled China is willing to support negotiations with Iran, as he pushes for a diplomatic resolution to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after a commercial vessel was apparently seized near the United Arab Emirates.(3) Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras warned that the European Central Bank could be forced to hike borrowing costs if the price of oil maintains its current level, according to Athens News Agency.(4) Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said he will resign from the central bank effective once incoming Chair Kevin Warsh is sworn into office, or shortly before.(5) Nvidia shares rose on Thursday, extending a 20% rally over the past seven days as investors plow into the chipmakers profiting from a flood of investment spending on artificial intelligence.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Did prices rise when Bulgaria adopted the euro? Or were fears of inflation misplaced? The numbers tell a clear story. Christine Gartner and Ginevra Aguiari talk about what really happened to prices and inflation in Bulgaria and explain how perceptions and expectations have changed. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Further reading The ECB Blog – Euro adoption and price increases in Bulgaria: separating myths from facts https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2026/html/ecb.blog20260409~cc951a0d29.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank

In this episode of Crossing Channels, Richard Westcott talks to Sumedha Deshmukh and Bruno Biais about whether the future of money can be truly inclusive. They explore the promise and limits of cryptocurrency, asking whether it offers a genuine alternative to existing financial systems or risks reproducing the same forms of exclusion, volatility and mistrust. The conversation examines why crypto may be useful in places where monetary and banking institutions are weak, but also why it can expose less informed users to new risks. They also discuss stablecoins, digital public infrastructure, regulation, trust and governance, and what policymakers need to consider if digital finance is to serve people's real needs rather than simply benefiting those who are already better connected and better informed.Season 5 Episode 6 transcriptListen to this episode on your preferred podcast platformFor more information about the Crossing Channels podcast series and the work of the Bennett School of Public Policy and IAST visit our websites at https://www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/ and https://www.iast.fr/.Follow us on Linkedin, Bluesky and X. With thanks to:Audio production by Alice WhaleyAssociate production by Burcu Sevde SelviVisuals by Tiffany Naylor and Pauline AlvesMore information about our host and guests:Podcast hostRichard Westcott is an award-winning journalist who spent 27 years at the BBC as a correspondent/producer/presenter covering global stories for the flagship Six and Ten o'clock TV news as well as the Today programme. Last year, Richard left the corporation and he is now the communications director for Cambridge University Health Partners and the Cambridge Biomedical Campus, both organisations that are working to support life sciences and healthcare across the city.Podcast guestsBruno Biais, a professor at HEC Paris, and associate researcher at TSE, holds a PhD in finance from HEC. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and the Finance Theory group and has been scientific adviser to the NYSE, Euronext, European Central Bank and Bank of England. His current research project, titled "Welfare, Incentives, and Dynamic Equilibrium" benefits from the support of the European Research Council (ERC Advanced Grant).Sumedha Deshmukh, formerly of the Bennett School of Public Policy, is currently a Research Fellow at University College London and the Ada Lovelace Institute. Her research focuses on the economic and societal impacts of digital technologies, with a particular interest in technology governance and public policy. Previously, she led multi-stakeholder technology governance initiatives at the World Economic Forum. She holds a PhD from the University of Cambridge, as well as a Master of Public Policy and BA in Economics from the University of Virginia. 

Your morning briefing. All the news you need to start your day.On today's podcast:(1) Keir Starmer is awaiting the results of one of the most consequential rounds of local elections in recent British history, a vote that could determine his future as prime minister and shape national policy in Europe’s second-largest economy.(2) The US struck military targets in Iran after the country fired on three Navy destroyers sailing in the Strait of Hormuz, an escalation that threatened to fracture a fragile ceasefire and reignite hostilities even as the two sides say they’re discussing an end to the war.(3) The European Central Bank will have to raise interest rates if the Iran war leaves a more lasting mark on inflation, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.(4) President Donald Trump’s 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful by a federal trade court in a fresh blow to the administration’s economic agenda, just months after the US Supreme Court vacated earlier levies he’d imposed.(5) President Donald Trump said he would give the European Union until July 4 to ratify its trade agreement with the US, after previously threatening to hike tariffs on auto imports as soon as this week if it failed to do so.(6) In some circles on Wall Street, the hottest debate isn’t about a tech-stock bubble or $100 oil as the new norm. It’s whether 30-year Treasury yields will mount a sustained push over 5%.Podcast Conversation: New Media Mourns the Old Media It Helped DestroySee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode, we discuss central bank meeting takeaways and market implications. We discuss the Fed's and Bank of Canada's shift in tone, plus the groundwork for hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England. We also cover the Bank of Japan's delayed hike and the implications for the June meeting. Finally, we recap some recent work across regions on global plumbing and funding markets.   You may also enjoy listening to the Merrill Perspectives podcast, featuring conversations on the big stories, news and trends affecting your everyday financial life.   "Bank of America" and “BofA Securities” are the marketing names for the global banking businesses and global markets businesses (which includes BofA Global Research) of Bank of America Corporation. Lending, derivatives, and other commercial banking activities are performed globally by banking affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including Bank of America, N.A., Member FDIC. Securities, trading, research, strategic advisory, and other investment banking and markets activities are performed globally by affiliates of Bank of America Corporation, including, in the United States, BofA Securities, Inc. a registered broker-dealer and Member of FINRA and SIPC, and, in other jurisdictions, by locally registered entities. ©2026 Bank of America Corporation. All rights reserved.  

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, host Rebecca Christie talks about sustainable finance with Bruegel's Silvia Merler and Dirk Schoenmaker. How will markets adjust to the European Union's new disclosure framework, watered down by an 'omnibus' simplification package. Is it really simpler? Who is using the new disclosures and how could clearer rules attract more investment? How can the EU manage the creative destruction of transition and minimise the risk of stranded assets? They also discuss how United States asset managers invest and how they cast their governance votes. Should the European Central Bank offer a separate interest rate for finance linked to the energy transition? How do green bonds, sustainability-linked bonds and transition finance work in the market? For sustainable finance to reach its potential, the EU will need to improve its capital markets generally and find ways to make its disclosure framework more practical and internationally viable.Relevant research: Merler, S. (2025) ‘How to improve the European Union's sustainable finance framework', Policy Brief 05/2025, Bruegel. Merler, S. (2025a) 'Streamlining or hollowing out? The implications of the Omnibus package for sustainable finance', First Glance, 03 March, Bruegel. Schoenmaker, D. (2026) 'Risks for Europe of US dominance of global asset management', Policy Brief 07/2026, Bruegel.

AI is everywhere, but does it automatically put your job at risk? In this episode of What the Euro?!, our host Catherine speaks to Laura – ECB economist specialising in AI and the labour market – to separate fact from fiction. They discuss how widespread AI use is, what factors lead to job losses or job creation and who stands to benefit the most in the new world of work. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Further reading: The ECB Blog – Artificial Intelligence: friend or foe for hiring in Europe today? https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2026/html/ecb.blog20260304~d9e34fc95f.en.html ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

In this episode of Current Account, Clay is joined by Isabelle Mateos y Lago, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas, who shares her perspective from conversations across Spring Meetings and brings years of experience at the intersection of economics, geopolitics, and markets. Together, they assess if discussions around growth, inflation, and monetary policy are being overshadowed by events in the Middle East, and whether the apparent calm in financial markets masks deeper risks tied to energy prices and supply disruptions. The conversation then turns squarely to Europe's economic trajectory - Clay and Isabelle discuss whether recent momentum on competitiveness and growth has been interrupted by higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty, and how Europe is balancing mounting funding needs, from defense spending and energy security to sustainability and technological investment, against already tight fiscal conditions. They also explore whether artificial intelligence can play a meaningful role in supporting productivity and growth, or whether political and labor‑market constraints may limit its macro impact. The episode concludes with a discussion of monetary policy, focusing on how central banks, especially the European Central Bank, are navigating a “wait‑and‑see” environment shaped by geopolitical risk, inflation uncertainty, and market expectations. This IIF Podcast was hosted by Clay Lowery, Executive Vice President, Research and Policy, with production and research contributions from Christian Klein, Digital Graphics and Production Associate and Miranda Silverman, Senior Program Assistant.

Energy prices have exploded as a result of the Trump Administration's war on Iran. It's another opportunity for Europe to shield itself against the kind of fossil fuel shock that hit four years ago when Russia curtailed gas supplies to Europe. There are some positive signs. Frank Elderson, a key figure at the European Central Bank, is calling fossil fuels a severe threat to the stability of the financial system. The defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary removes a vehemently pro-fossil voice from the European Council. And then there's the upcoming Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels co-organized by The Netherlands and Colombia. But there's also a strong risk this moment will be wasted. Governments are shoveling tax breaks at drivers and diminishing the incentive to change behavior, and there's stiff resistance to an EU-level windfall tax on excess fossil fuel profits. Meanwhile Germany is mulling keeping coal connected longer than planned, and Italy has sought to suspend the Emissions Trading System that underpins the entirety of EU climate policy. In this episode: a conversation with Bas Eickout, a prominent Dutch lawmaker. Bas is co-leader of the Greens group at the European Parliament and, as a member of the chamber's governing body, among its dozen most influential figures. Bas describes how he's pushing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on electrification targets so as to ensure the current crisis doesn't go to waste. He also discusses the European politicians who share ownership for the crisis by impeding the transition from fossil dependency. Among the candidates: Kadri Simson, Jörgen Warborn, Manfred Weber, Fernand Kartheiser, and Mark Rutte. But there's also the question of how the Greens themselves should play this moment. For years Greens have been a punching bag for the far-right's culture wars. And although polls consistently show voters favor climate-friendly policies, that's not translated into widespread victories at the ballot box. To improve their electoral performance, Bas's own Green-Left party is forming a new party, Progressive Netherlands, with the Dutch social democrats. But Bas says similar tie-ups are unlikely, at least for now, in other EU countries.Support the show

The European Central Bank has entered the preparation phase for a digital euro—and political momentum is building toward a potential launch before 2030. In this episode, host Aries is joined by Cihan Duran (Ratings) and Shuchita Shukla (Market Intelligence) to break down what the digital euro is (and isn't), why EU policymakers are prioritizing it now, and what it could mean for payments, consumers, banks, and financial stability.

n this episode, Lucy Adams is joined by Eva Murciano to explore one of the biggest challenges facing organisations today: how to keep careers moving in environments where people stay for a long time. Drawing on Eva's experience at the European Central Bank, they unpack the tension between having a highly committed, purpose-driven workforce and the unintended consequences of low turnover; stagnation, limited progression, and skills that risk becoming outdated. Their conversation challenges the traditional idea of career progression as a ladder to climb. Instead, Lucy and Eva discuss the need to reframe careers around growth, skills, and experiences. They explore why both employees and managers often resist internal mobility, and what organisations can do to shift mindsets. From redefining success to making movement the norm rather than the exception, this episode offers practical insight into what it really takes to future-proof careers. Eva also shares how the ECB is experimenting with a structured approach to mobility through its “3–5–8 model,” encouraging employees to think proactively about their next move. It's an honest discussion about what works, what's still evolving, and why HR has a critical role to play in nudging both individuals and leaders towards more dynamic, flexible career paths. Chapters 00:00 – Rethinking careers in a fast-changing world 08:12 – The hidden challenge of long-tenured workforces 16:45 – Why internal mobility is so hard to make happen 25:30 – The 3–5–8 model: encouraging movement and growth 33:10 – What HR can do to shift mindsets and behaviours About Eva Murciano Eva Murciano is an HR leader at the European Central Bank, with a focus on talent, development, and organisational effectiveness. She is passionate about enabling people to grow through diverse experiences and helping organisations build more agile, future-ready workforces. Contact Eva https://www.linkedin.com/in/eva-murciano-831a5a13/ Useful Links Find out more about Disruptive HR: www.disruptivehr.com Get in touch: hello@disruptivehr.com Check out The Disruptive HR Club: https://disruptivehr.com/ https://disruptivehr.com/the-club/

In this episode of the BBC Radio 4 series, Archive on 4, our very own Tristan Redman tells the story of former French President Nicolas Sarkozy's rise and fall.The former French President was jailed last year for conspiring to fund his 2007 election campaign with money from the late Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. He's currently appealing his sentence. And he has some powerful supporters.Using archive recordings and contemporary interviews with those who know Sarkozy well, Tristan Redman tells the story of how he became the first former French head of state to end up behind bars since Nazi collaborator, Philippe Pétain.Featuring investigative journalist, Fabrice Arfi from Mediapart; Daniele Klein whose brother was killed in the ‘French Lockerbie' and her niece Melanie who lost her father; Alain Minc, one of Nicolas Sarkozy's closest friends and advisers; the British writer and academic Andrew Hussey and Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, who was Sarkozy's finance minister.Presenter: Tristan RedmanProducer: Adele ArmstrongSound: Peregrine AndrewsEditor: Penny MurphyCredits: Mediapart, Euronews, France Télévisions, TF1 and France 2

How should a central bank respond to energy shocks? Will high oil and gas prices bolster the uptake of renewables? And what is the true cost of net zero 2050? This week on Cleaning Up, host Michael Liebreich sits down with Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the European Central Bank's governing council, for a candid, behind-the-scenes discussion about how central banks should and can respond to inflation, energy volatility, and climate transition. From the recent surge in oil and gas prices to the lessons learned from post-COVID inflation, Wunsch explains why central banks may have “got it wrong” during the Russia-Ukraine energy shock, and how they're rethinking their response to supply shocks. Michael and Pierre dive into: The costs of net zero, and why a one-size fits all approach to decarbonisation isn't working. Whether European economies can absorb the costs transition without losing competitiveness Why “transitory inflation” didn't stay transitory during the Russia-Ukraine war The risk of political backlash and policy instability Why industry, not households, is the hardest part of decarbonisation for Europe The gap between climate ambition and credible policy tools. Leadership Circle: Cleaning Up is proud to be supported by its Leadership Circle. The members are Actis, Alcazar Energy, Arup, Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, Cygnum Capital, Davidson Kempner, Ecopragma Capital, EDP, Eurelectric, the Gilardini Foundation, KKR, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, National Grid, Octopus Energy, Quadrature Climate Foundation, Schneider Electric, SDCL and Wärtsilä. For more information about the Leadership Circle, visit cleaningup.live Links and more: Pierre Wunsch bio: https://www.nbb.be/en/cv/pierre-wunsch National Bank of Belgium's Research on Climate: https://www.nbb.be/en/publications-research/publications/topics/climate How China Became a Green Finance Superpower - Ep160: Dr. Ma Jun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fu6giWzTxAY The 130 Trillion-Dollar Man - Ep84: Mark Carney: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtA5ufMzKAU

The average price of regular gasoline in the United States has topped $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022, as the war in Iran continues to disrupt global energy supplies. Meanwhile, inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.5% in March, surpassing the European Central Bank's target amid rising energy costs. And in Egypt, shops and restaurants are being forced to close early under government-imposed energy-saving measures introduced in response to surging fuel prices.

We've curated a special 10-minute version of the podcast for those in a hurry. Here you can listen to the full episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/christine-lagarde-central-bank-independence-geopolitical/id1614211565?i=1000756916046&l=nbNicolai Tangen sits down with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces reshaping the global economy. They discuss geopolitical fragmentation, the impact of US policy shifts on Europe, energy vulnerability, the green transition, and the future of Europe's social democratic model. Lagarde also reflects on the ECB's mandate amid rising complexity and what it means to lead with clarity in uncertain times. Tune in for an insightful conversation!In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday. The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen and Sebastian Langvik-Hansen. Background research was conducted by Une Solheim. Watch the episode on YouTube: Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTubeWant to learn more about the fund? The fund | Norges Bank Investment Management (nbim.no)Follow Nicolai Tangen on LinkedIn: Nicolai Tangen | LinkedInFollow NBIM on LinkedIn: Norges Bank Investment Management: Administrator for bedriftsside | LinkedInFollow NBIM on Instagram: Explore Norges Bank Investment Management on Instagram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Digital Euro: Platform Over InnovationIn this clip, Eric Tak, Head of Division for Digital Euro at the European Central Bank, shares a grounded perspective on the future of payments.He notes that crypto may not yet see widespread adoption in retail payments, and emphasizes that central banks aren't typically the fastest innovators in this space

Nicolai Tangen sits down with Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, for a wide-ranging conversation on the forces reshaping the global economy. They discuss geopolitical fragmentation, the impact of US policy shifts on Europe, energy vulnerability, the green transition, and the future of Europe's social democratic model. Lagarde also reflects on the ECB's mandate amid rising complexity and what it means to lead with clarity in uncertain times. Tune in for an insightful conversation!In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday. The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen and Sebastian Langvik-Hansen. Background research was conducted by Une Solheim. Watch the episode on YouTube: Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTubeWant to learn more about the fund? The fund | Norges Bank Investment Management (nbim.no)Follow Nicolai Tangen on LinkedIn: Nicolai Tangen | LinkedInFollow NBIM on LinkedIn: Norges Bank Investment Management: Administrator for bedriftsside | LinkedInFollow NBIM on Instagram: Explore Norges Bank Investment Management on Instagram Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With concerns over so many non-EU payment providers, the European Central Bank wants to launch a digital euro for citizens. So how will it work? Eithne Dodd reports

With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East driving a new wave of uncertainty, investors are watching central bank decisions and accompanying statements very closely. How are policymakers responding, and what does this mean for fixed income positioning?In this episode of The View Beyond, Bernadette Anderko is joined by Dario Messi, Julius Baer's Head of Fixed Income Research, to discuss the week's mammoth round of central bank meetings. The conversation explores how recent geopolitical developments are shaping inflation expectations, and the challenges that these pose for central banks. Dario shares his perspective on why a hawkish tone from policy makers is justified but may not necessarily translate into actual policy tightening. He also offers his insights for fixed income investors navigating the current environment.(00:00) - Introduction (01:13) - Takeaways from the Fed's decision (02:42) - Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank (03:57) - Has the rate-cut narrative been derailed? (06:40) - Will sounding hawkish translate into being hawkish? (08:06) - Implications for bond markets and yield curves (09:33) - Fixed income scenarios (11:05) - Closing remarks and legal disclaimer Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. 

The market got it wrong.After months of expecting easier policy, central banks have just delivered a major reality check. The Federal Reserve is no longer forecasting cuts, the Bank of England is turning more hawkish, and the European Central Bank could move sooner than anyone expected.Behind it all is a new inflation threat building beneath the surface. Energy prices are rising fast, and if they stay elevated, the consequences could ripple through food, wages, and the broader economy.This episode breaks down the chain reaction now unfolding across global markets, why bond yields are surging, and how a temporary shock could become something much more persistent.The big question is no longer when rates will fall but whether they're about to rise again.(00:00) Rate Cuts Shock(02:14) Fed Turns Hawkish(08:30) Iran, Oil & Inflation(15:46) Market Reaction(19:59) Gold Drop Explained(26:13) Bank of England Shift(30:00) UK Energy Risk(37:06) ECB Pivot(38:27) Inflation Feedback Loop(43:50) Iran Impact on Food & Energy*****Join our next free Markets Accelerator Simulation Subscribe to the daily Market Maker newsletter

The European Central Bank has kept key interest rates unchanged as heightened geopolitical tensions weigh on the outlook of inflation and economy in the euro area.

The soaring short-term yields in the UK may be somewhat overdone, says Bloomberg Intelligence European Rates Strategist Huw Worthington on this Macro Matters edition of the FICC Focus podcast series. BI's US Rates Strategist Ira Jersey and Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joined him on a webinar the morning of March 19 to discuss the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and the European Central Bank meetings and the ramifications for rate markets. The trio also discuss some scenarios that were asked during the live Q&A portion of the webinar, and highlight how oil is currently forcing central banks to rethink inflation forecasts. The Macro Matters podcast is part of BI's FICC Focus series.

Donal O'Donovan, Irish Independent Business Editor

Are we really watching cash disappear, or is that just what people on TikTok say? In this episode of What the Euro?!, our host Catherine digs into the real story behind cash. To find out everything you need to know, she speaks to experts about how we're using it, why it matters, why it'll stay and what's changing with new banknote designs and the digital euro. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.

Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, to discuss the growing risks around the Strait of Hormuz and what disruptions could mean for oil prices and global markets. Plus, what it means for US-China relations if Trump decides to stay in Washington and and preview a pivotal week for central banks, including decisions from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Oil erased early gains as traders sought to gauge the impact to supply after US attacks on Iran's main export hub, another escalation in the war that's all but cut off global customers from the region's energy supplies for more than two weeks. We spoke to Steven Schoenfeld, CEO at MarketVector Indexes. Plus - The world's top central banks convene this week facing a renewed inflation threat from the war in Iran and the possibility that they'll be forced to delay interest-rate cuts and in some cases consider hikes. Changes aren't imminent yet: The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are all expected to keep borrowing costs steady as they assess how much surging energy costs will feed through to consumer prices and growth. But for them and the other 18 central banks that are about to set policy — overseeing about two-thirds of the global economy in total — the tone will turn more cautious as they acknowledge the risk of another inflation shock. We heard from Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP. She spoke to Bloomberg's Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn on the Asia Trade. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve and a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions. In Asia – a look ahead to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend with Host Nathan Hager take a look at some of the stories we'll be tracking in the coming week. In the US – a look ahead to next week’s monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve and a focus on 3 stocks for the week ahead. In the UK – a look ahead to the Bank of England and European Central Bank decisions. In Asia – a look ahead to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s meeting with President Donald Trump in Washington. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this episode of The Sound of Economics, host Rebecca Christie speaks with Klaas Knot, former governor of the Dutch central bank, and Bruegel Director Jeromin Zettelmeyer about the big issues facing the European Union economy. Will euro-area inflation rise in response to energy price shocks from the US and Israeli attacks on Iran? How quickly can monetary policy respond when trouble emerges? How is the Dutch economy doing compared to the rest of Europe? Meanwhile, the European Commission has proposed an Industrial Accelerator Act to protect EU manufacturing from the onslaught of Chinese exports – how does it stack up against the status quo? This episode features insights from two of Europe's top economists on the major challenges of 2026 and the role of the European Central Bank in keeping the euro-area economy together. Relavant research: Mathieu Segers Lecture 2026 with Klaas Knot (in Dutch) García Bercero , I, B. McWilliams, N. Poitiers and S. Tagliapietra (2026) '‘Made with Europe' not ‘Made in Europe' should guide EU industrial policy' First Glance, Bruegel, 10 February. McWilliams, B., S. Tagliapietra and J. Zettelmeyer (2025) ‘Reconciling the European Union's clean industrialisation goals with those of the Global South', Policy Brief 18/2025, Bruegel Steinbach, A, G Wolff and J Zettelmeyer (2025), ‘Rethinking the governance and funding of European rearmament‘, in Gensler, G, S Johnson, U Panizza and B Weder di Mauro (eds), The Economic Consequences of The Second Trump Administration: A Preliminary Assessment, CEPR Press, Paris & London. 

This week on Face the Nation, in a major blow to the president's economic agenda, the Supreme Court strikes down his use of an emergency law to impose tariffs on foreign goods. Despite the defeat, the president digs in, announcing a new 15% global tariff to replace the measures struck down by the Court, lashing out at the justices who struck it down. We'll get the latest from the U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.  And what's the impact on the global economy? We'll ask the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde. Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the Middle East, with a fresh tide of protests in Iran as the U.S. continues its military build up in the region, putting pressure on Tehran to agree on a nuclear deal. We'll get the latest from Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi. And finally, a conversation with a bipartisan group of governors on how the president's trade and immigration policies are affecting their states' economies, and more. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

A major fight is brewing over who has the right to regulate prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. In a brief in a Nevada court case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission argued it should regulate prediction markets, but states say the platforms should follow state gambling laws. Later in the episode, we unpack departure plans for the European Central Bank's president and hear why geopolitics are making Sweden rethink its decision to not adopt the euro.

A major fight is brewing over who has the right to regulate prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. In a brief in a Nevada court case, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission argued it should regulate prediction markets, but states say the platforms should follow state gambling laws. Later in the episode, we unpack departure plans for the European Central Bank's president and hear why geopolitics are making Sweden rethink its decision to not adopt the euro.

Meta has agreed to spend billions of dollars on millions of Nvidia's chips, and Warner Bros Discovery has reopened sale talks with Paramount. Plus, Christine Lagarde has decided to leave her post as president of the European Central Bank early, and US offshore wind companies are racing to bring projects online that can withstand Donald Trump's efforts to cripple the industry. Mentioned in this podcast:Nvidia secures multibillion-dollar Meta deal as it battles chip rivalsWarner Bros throws ownership battle open by giving Paramount a week to up its offerUS offshore wind farms try to withstand the force of Trump's wrathChristine Lagarde to leave the ECB before April 2027US restaurants downsize meals to counter anti-obesity drugs and affordability crisisNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Victoria Craig. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How safe are our banks in the euro area? The world around us is changing – geopolitical tensions , AI and climate change can all pose risks to banks. So how can banks best manage their risks? What are supervisors focusing on in the coming year? And what measures are they taking to make supervision less complex? Our host Stefania Secola speaks to Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch to find out. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 4 February 2026 and published on 17 February 2026. In this episode: 00:57 How safe is your bank? How are euro area banks doing? How does the ECB – together with national supervisors – examine their health? 03:51 What risks should banks be focusing on? How is the external environment in which banks operate changing? How can risks from geopolitical uncertainty, digitalisation and climate change feed through to banks? 06:02 How is supervision evolving? In a changing external environment, we need new strategies to properly manage new risks. How is European supervision adapting to become more efficient, effective and risk-focused? 08:57 Why is supervision so complex? Modern banks are complex, operating across borders and with different business models. How can we reduce undue complexity in supervision? 10:54 Let's talk about competitiveness Do regulation and supervision hinder the competitiveness of euro area banks? What does the banking sector need to do to stay competitive, and how can European banking supervision help? 13:02 Our guest's hot tips Claudia Buch shares her hot tips. Streamlining supervision, safeguarding resilience: https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/framework/approach/html/simplification.en.html Governing Council proposes simplification of EU banking rules: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr251211~aa5c9271b8.en.html Banking supervision explained https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/about/banking-supervision-explained/html/index.en.html Espresso Economics https://www.youtube.com/@Espresso_Economics ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Andrew Sheets discusses key market metrics indicating that valuations should stay higher for longer, despite some investors' concerns.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Today I'm going to talk about key signposts for stability – in a world that from day to day feels anything but.It's Friday, January 30th at 2pm in London.A core theme for us at Morgan Stanley Research is that easier fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy in 2026 will support more risk taking, corporate activity and animal spirits. Yes, valuations are high. But with so many forces blowing in the same stimulative direction across so many geographies, those valuations may stay higher for longer.We think that the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of Japan, all lower interest rates more, or raise them less than markets expect. We think that fiscal policy will remain stimulative as governments in the United States, Germany, China, and Japan all spend more. And as I discussed on this program recently, regulation – a sleepy but essential part of this equation – is also aligning to support more risk taking.Of course, one concern with having so much stimulative sail out, so to speak, is that you lose control of the boat. As geopolitical headwinds swirl and the price of gold has risen a 100 percent in the last year, many investors are asking whether we're seeing too much of a shift in both government and fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policy.Specifically, when I speak to investors, I think I can paraphrase these concerns as follows: Are we seeing expectations for future inflation rise sharply? Will we see more volatility in government debt? Has the valuation of the U.S. dollar deviated dramatically from fair value? And are credit markets showing early signs of stress?Notably, so far, the answer to all of these questions based on market pricing is no. The market's expectation for CPI inflation over the next decade is about 2.4 percent. Similar actually to what we saw in 2024, 2023. Expected volatility for U.S. interest rates over the next year is, well, lower than where it was on January 1st. The U.S. dollar, despite a lot of recent headlines, is trading roughly in line with its fair value, based on purchasing power based on data from Bloomberg. And the credit markets long seen as important leading indicators of risk, well, across a lot of different regions, they've been very well behaved, with spreads still historically tight.Uncertainty in U.S. foreign policy, big moves in Japanese interest rates and even larger moves in gold have all contributed to investor concerns around the potential instability of the macro backdrop. It's understandable, but for now we think that a number of key market-based measures of the stability are still holding.While that's the case, we think that a positive fundamental story, specifically our positive view on earnings growth can continue to support markets. Major shifts in these signposts, however, could change that.Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at the implications of the U.S. government's efforts to ease regulations, from bank balance sheets to asset valuations.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a core theme of easing policy, and the latest iteration in the U.S. mortgage market. It's Thursday, January 15th at 2pm in London. Central to our thinking for the year ahead is that we're seeing an unusual combination of easing monetary policy, fiscal policy, and regulatory policy – all at the same time. This isn't normal, and usually this type of support is only deployed under much more dire economic conditions. All this is also happening alongside another large supportive force – over $3 trillion of AI- and datacenter-related spending that Morgan Stanley expects all to happen through the end of 2028. This broad-based easing is a global theme. Equities in Japan have been rallying on hopes of even a larger fiscal leasing in that country. In Europe, we think that Germany will continue to spend more while the European Central Bank and Bank of England cut rates more than the market expects.But like many things these days, it's the United States that's at the heart of the story. We think that the U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates this year, even as core inflation persists above its target. The U.S. government will spend about $1.9 trillion more than it takes in, even after adjusting for tariffs as tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act kick in. But my focus today is on the third leg of this proverbial three-legged stimulative stool. While easing monetary and fiscal policy probably get the most focus, easing regulatory policy is another big lever that's being pulled in the same direction. Regulatory policy is opaque, and let's face it can be a little boring. But it's extremely important for how financial markets function. Regulation drives the incentives for the buyers of many assets, especially in the all-important banking and insurance sectors. It can set almost by definition what price an asset needs to trade at to be attractive, or how much of an asset a particular actor in the market can or cannot hold. Regulatory policy tightened dramatically in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, but now it's starting to ease. Our U.S. bank equity analysts expect that finalization of key capital rules later this year – an important regulatory step – could free up about [$]5.8 trillion – with a T – of balance sheet capacity across the Global Systematically Important Banks. In mid-December, the office of the comptroller of the currency and the FDIC withdrew lending guidelines from 2013 that had discouraged banks from making loans to more highly indebted companies. And just last week, the U.S. administration announced that the U.S. mortgage agencies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would buy [$]200 billion of mortgages to hold on their own balance sheet; a significant move that quickly tightens spreads in this key market. For investors, we see several implications. This simultaneous easing across monetary, fiscal, and now regulatory policy supports a market that runs hot and where valuations may overshoot. And in the specific case of these agency mortgages, my colleague Jay Bacow and our mortgage strategy team think that this shift is now very quickly in the price. Having previously been positive on agency mortgage spreads, they've now turned to neutral. Thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Le 5 janvier, la Banque Centrale Européenne a publié ses premières prévisions. Malgré l'inflation persistante, une légère croissance est attendue pour la zone euro. Traduction: On January 5th, the European Central Bank released its initial forecasts. Despite lingering inflation, modest growth is projected for the Eurozone in the coming year. Hébergé par Acast. Visitez acast.com/privacy pour plus d'informations.

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureTrump is bringing the country out of the Biden/Obama recession. The [CB] is trapped because they never expected Trump’s parallel economic system to be building at lightning speed. Trump is putting everything into place to transition the people from the [CB] which means we will not need the income tax. [DS] has now used one of it’s soldiers to begin the color revolution. The [DS] wants a civil war in the end and they are pushing it. Trump knows the playbook and this is why he took the path of waking the people up and building the counterinsurgency. The people must see who the true enemy is, only when the people see the enemy can we fight the enemy. Trump put all this into place for this moment. Economy https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994238315730473327?s=20   Challenger Gray spiked +99,010, to 153,074, the highest since March. This also marks the highest monthly number for any October in 22 years. All while employees notified of mass layoffs via WARN notices tracked by Revelio rose +11,912 last month to 43,626, the 2nd-highest in at least 2 years. US layoffs are accelerating. https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1994222461252980749?s=20  percentage has persisted above 90% for 12 months. Such an elevated reading has been seen only a few times over the last 35 years. Over the last 2 years, global central banks have cuts rates 316 times, the highest reading in at least 25 years. To put this into perspective, there were 313 cumulative cuts in 2008-2010 in response to the financial crisis. Global monetary policy is easing. Amazing How Central Bank Money-Printing Reversed around the World after the Inflation Shock  Balance sheets of the Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and central banks of China, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and India as % of GDP.  The major central banks around the world have been unwinding their balance sheets for the past few years, even the Bank of Japan, which got a late start in 2024. Their balance sheets had swollen to grotesque proportions during the global QE frenzy that started in 2008, and QE-mania during and after the pandemic. But that has been getting unwound. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), an umbrella organization owned by its member central banks, released its latest quarterly data on central bank balance sheets today. We'll look at the decline of the balance sheets of nine major central banks: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China, Bank of England, Central Bank of India, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Swiss National Bank. In normal times, central-bank balance sheets, including the Fed's balance sheet, grew with the economy, as measured by GDP; and the ratio of total assets as a percentage of GDP back then was low and roughly stable over the years. Years of QE then caused the ratios to explode. And years of QT have now caused the ratios to shrink dramatically.   They're all seeing the same thing: A continued threat of inflation and massive distortions and risks in asset prices, including dangerous housing bubbles that are now deflating in some markets. So they've been removing some of the fuel, to walk back from those risks. Source: wolfstreet.com (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/status/1994194115467071830?s=20 Yes, President Trump did make that statement in a recent address (likely his Thanksgiving message to U.S. troops on November 27, 2025). Based on the video clip in the X post you linked, here’s the relevant excerpt from his remarks:“The next couple of years, I think we’ll substantially be cutting and maybe cutting out completely, but we’ll be cutting income tax—could be almost completely cutting it—because the money we’re taking in is going to be so large.”This aligns closely with the claim in the WatcherGuru post. Multiple news outlets have reported on the comments, confirming they are authentic and recent. For context, Trump has floated similar ideas about offsetting or replacing income taxes with tariff revenue multiple times during his campaign and presidency, though experts have questioned the feasibility due to the massive revenue gap (tariffs currently generate far less than income taxes). DOGE Geopolitical Globalist Germany's Firewall Against the AfD Collapses as Half the Country Now Open to Voting for Them For the first time since the party entered parliament about nine years ago, the anti-democratic cordon sanitaire around the right-wing, anti-globalist Alternative für Deutschland appears to have cracked wide open. According to the latest INSA/Bild poll, fewer than half of all German voters (just 49%) now say they would “never” vote AfD—down from a staggering 75% only a few years ago, This is nothing short of a historic breakthrough. Despite years of state-funded smear campaigns, constant domestic intelligence surveillance (Verfassungsschutz), court cases, job dismissals, bank account closures, repeated violence against party members by left-globalist extremists, and even serious discussions about banning the party outright, ordinary Germans are finally seeing through the propaganda and recognizing the AfD as the only serious opposition to a failing system. Source: thegatewaypundit.com    all the Liars and Pretenders of the Radical Left Media are going out of business! At the conclusion of the G20, South Africa refused to hand off the G20 Presidency to a Senior Representative from our U.S. Embassy, who attended the Closing Ceremony. Therefore, at my direction, South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20, which will be hosted in the Great City of Miami, Florida next year. South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not a country worthy of Membership anywhere, and we are going to stop all payments and subsidies to them, effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! War/Peace Zelensky sent aide to US talks to ‘protect’ him from corruption probe – media Zelensky appointed his chief of staff, Andrey Yermak, to head Kiev’s negotiating delegation in Geneva last weekend after learning that anti-corruption investigators were preparing a suspicion notice against the aide,The report comes amid fallout from a massive $100 million graft scheme involving the Ukrainian leader’s inner circle, including long-time associate Timur Mindich, who has been charged with running a kickback scheme in the energy sector and fled before the authorities could detain him.Surveillance of the Mindich case by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) reportedly captured conversations involving Zelensky and Yermak, potentially implicating both. Source: sott.net https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1994307774860189739?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1994307774860189739%7Ctwgr%5Ee8d979a9c10fbfc326b32333d206fa988e9c3418%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thegatewaypundit.com%2F2025%2F11%2Fnew-ukraines-anti-corruption-bureau-raids-home-andriy%2F   Zelensky's chief of staff. The latest raid comes days after a $100M bribery scandal rocked Ukraine's energy sector – but no official word yet if this is linked. Neither agency has commented on the raid yet.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NATO states considering ‘cyber offensive' against Russia – Politico NATO's European members are reportedly considering joint offensive cyber operations against Russia, Politico reported on Thursday, citing two senior EU government officials and three diplomats. Western governments are assessing cyber and other options in response to alleged “hybrid attacks” by Moscow, according to the publication. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze told Politico that NATO must “be more proactive on the cyber offensive” and better coordinate their intelligence services. “And it's not talking that sends a signal – it's doing,” she said. In late 2024, NATO unveiled plans to establish a new integrated cyber defense center at its headquarters in Belgium, which is expected to go online by 2028. Stefano Piermarocchi, the head of cyber risk management within NATO's chief information office, told Breaking Defense that the new hub would enhance Source: rt.com Russian President Vladimir Putin Gives Remarkably Detailed Explanation of Current Peace Negotiation Status – Either Ukraine Concedes Diplomatically, or We Will Win Militarily Source: theconservativetreehouse.com Medical/False Flags [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/RogerJStoneJr/status/1993883057414353293?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/1994206037998538849?s=20 https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/1994194638421340290?s=20 https://twitter.com/VickieforNYC/status/1993899026651951335?s=20   foreign warzone. Yet almost every major lefty account is parroting this narrative. It’s bizarre. Like “of COURSE people are going to try and murder the National Guard, what did you expect to happen in Washington” Is this the narrative here? That Washington is Fallujah? Or is it that the left has declared a de facto state of war, and casualties are now just to be expected? It’s extremely bad either way. https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/1994054785163522357?s=20  that the President said it's times to bring in more law enforcement to make sure that a city that had the 4th highest homicide rate in the country, that that violence was quelled. I'm not even gonna go there!” Liberals have been spending the last 12 hours trying to place the blame on Trump for bringing the NG to the city. Truly unbelievable how ungrateful these people are https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1993876798866653577?s=20 https://twitter.com/thevivafrei/status/1994116243154973175?s=20   intentions, everything takes on a whole new meaning. https://twitter.com/ZannSuz/status/1993859778414580217?s=20 https://twitter.com/JLRINVESTIGATES/status/1994214556671889810?s=20 https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1994118842239610989?s=20   dive here. As always, patience as I pull together the thread: https://twitter.com/TPASarah/status/1994015487135514931 Sarah Adams@TPASarah Lakanwal, from Khost Province, Afghanistan, was a member of two CIA-supported units that operated under the National Directorate of Security (NDS) of the former Afghan Republic. Although these units belonged to the NDS on paper, their support and direction came directly from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). He served in Unit 01, a special military-intelligence unit responsible for the central zone provinces (Kabul, Parwan, Wardak, and Logar). His agency training in 2007 took place at CIA's Eagle Base near the Deh Sabz district of Kabul province, a few miles from Hamid Karzai International Airport (HKIA). Eagle Camp, originally built on an old brick factory site, became one of the CIA's most important counterterrorism training centers in the early 2000s. It trained the CIA-backed NDS units including NDS-01, NDS-02, NDS-03, NDS-04, NDS-KPF, and NDS-KSF, and also housed an ammunition depot and multiple facilities for sensitive operations. When U.S. forces left Afghanistan in 2021, Eagle Camp was among the final sites to be evacuated and demolished. It was later handed over to the Haqqani Network's suicide bomber brigade, the Badri 313. Badri 313 moved the suicide bombers through the gate areas of HKIA for the Abbey Gate attack that killed 13 of our servicemembers and approximately 170 Afghans on August 26, 2021. After completing training at Eagle Base, Lakanwal was transferred to the team supporting CIA's Kandahar Base. The site had a long militant history: it housed Mullah Mohammad Omar from 1994–2001, Osama bin Laden from 1998–2001, and later Camp Gecko from 2002–2021, which was used by the CIA and NDS-03. It served as the headquarters of the Kandahar Strike Force, which led CIA-backed counterterrorism operations in Kandahar, Uruzgan, and Zabul provinces against the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS. Lakanwal took part in counterterrorism missions alongside U.S. forces in Kandahar. After the attack yesterday on our National Guardsmen in Washington, DC, ISIS channels were the first to praise the incident largely because Lakanwal's half-brother (the son of his father's second wife, pictured left) had been a recruiter for the Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP). His brother, Muawiyah Khurasani aka Hayatullah (pictured below), previously worked with Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Orakzai Agency, Pakistan, before formally joining ISKP. He was killed in a targeted operation in July 2022 in Achin district, Nangarhar province. Some ISIS members claimed he was killed by Pakistan's Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD), though that remains unconfirmed. After the fall of Kabul in 2021, Lakanwal's unit the Kandahar Protection Force and the Khost Protection Force (KPF) became prime targets for both the Haqqani Network and ISKP, which sought either to blackmail or recruit former KPF members. Recruitment involved persuading them to join voluntarily; blackmail involved coercing them through threats to their families (many were left behind), exposure of past work with the U.S., or financial pressure. Both groups targeted these units specifically because of their close relationships on U.S. soil, particularly with former CIA officers. In addition, both groups, along with al-Qaeda, saw value in impersonating these units. A couple thousand fake documents and ID cards were produced so terrorists could claim affiliation with KPF/01/02 and other special units. This allowed some individuals to fraudulently move through the U.S. evacuation process by exploiting unsuspecting volunteers and taking advantage of weak vetting procedures. We have confirmed that Lakanwal's ID (pictured right) and employment were legitimate, but a full review is recommended, as terrorists have explicitly claimed using this route as a pipeline into the U.S. We cannot keep waiting for Americans to be killed again and again before we act against the Islamist terrorists who have arrived on our soil since 2021. This can no longer fall on the shoulders of a small handful of people sounding the alarm. Every American needs to be engaged: protecting their families, their communities, and our homeland. Please prepare today! https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1993925420329390316?s=20  action force of the AFN who fought directly alongside U.S. Special Forces against the Taliban. In addition, Fox News is reporting that Lakanwal worked with various other government entities from the United States in Afghanistan, including the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), specifically as part of the CIA-backed Kandahar Strike Force (KSF), known in most intelligence circles as NDS-03, which operated outside of U.S. and Afghan military chain-of-commands directly under the CIA, carrying out covert, clandestine, counterterrorism operations, including night raids and assassinations against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. https://twitter.com/DataRepublican/status/1993878815349854361?s=20 CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that to Fox. “In the wake of the disastrous Biden withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration justified bringing the alleged shooter to the United States in September 2021 due to his prior work with the U.S. government, including CIA, as a member of a partner force in Kandahar, which ended shortly following the chaotic evacuation,” CIA Director John Ratcliffe told Fox News Digital. “The individual—and so many others—should have never been allowed to come here,” Ratcliffe continued. “Our citizens and service members deserve far better than to endure the ongoing fallout from the Biden administration's catastrophic failures.” Ratcliffe added: “God bless our brave troops.” https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1994201842750837067?s=20 https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1993882348069552531?s=20 https://twitter.com/CannConActual/status/1993693224196604379?s=20  at a colour revolution. @ColonelTowner and@xAlphaWarriorx have done a good job documenting several. We have been overwhelmingly resistant to these efforts on our homeland through the use of NGOs funding widespread protests and subsequent riots. And as President Trump cut the head off their private sector funding apparatuses (USAID, NED, etc), they are becoming desperate. So they politicized the military, subverted the Constitutional authority of the Commander in Chief, and injected themselves in a chain of command they are NOT a part of. The desperate attempt to execute their plan. This is life or death for the Deep State. https://twitter.com/CynicalPublius/status/1993886979738460646?s=20 There are three phases to a Color Revolution. It’s important to understand this so you can see how the actions of the Sedition 6 fit into this pattern. PHASE ONE: -Form underground opposition networks. -Create strong slogans and powerful information operations as recruitment tools. -Upon a certain well-coordinated signal, well-funded, well-organized mass protests “spontaneously” appear. -The armed wing of the movement conducts carefully coordinated, precision attacks on certain government infrastructure. PHASE TWO:  -Discredit military, security, and law enforcement forces through information operations, coordination with friendly media (Jimmy Kimmel? Talkin’ to you, Komrade Kelly), strikes, civil disobedience, rioting, and sabotage. yOU ARE HER -Occupy civic facilities and refuse to leave until your demands are met. -Strengthen and grow a highly organized logistics support network. -Issue ultimatums to the government, threatening violent uprisings if demands are unmet. The goal is to either have the government acquiesce or engage in violent repression, in each case thereby delegitimizing itself. PHASE THREE:  -Overthrow the government in a “non-violent” manner that is actually quite violent. -Open attacks on authorities, seizure of government buildings, destruction of government symbols. -Coordinate media messaging. If the government attacks, media will accuse the government of attacking “peaceful protestors.” If the government makes concessions, it will appear impotent because protestors will not compromise. -Widespread delegitimization of the government is effective in the minds of the populace; the government either willingly cedes power or is violently removed. -The once underground opposition forces’ leadership now seizes control of the government.   prisons, mental institutions, gangs, or drug cartels. They and their children are supported through massive payments from Patriotic American Citizens who, because of their beautiful hearts, do not want to openly complain or cause trouble in any way, shape, or form. They put up with what has happened to our Country, but it's eating them alive to do so! A migrant earning $30,000 with a green card will get roughly $50,000 in yearly benefits for their family. The real migrant population is much higher. This refugee burden is the leading cause of social dysfunction in America, something that did not exist after World War II (Failed schools, high crime, urban decay, overcrowded hospitals, housing shortages, and large deficits, etc.). As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota. Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for “prey” as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping against hope that they will be left alone. The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both, while the worst “Congressman/woman” in our Country, Ilhan Omar, always wrapped in her swaddling hijab, and who probably came into the U.S.A. illegally in that you are not allowed to marry your brother, does nothing but hatefully complain about our Country, its Constitution, and how “badly” she is treated, when her place of origin is a decadent, backward, and crime ridden nation, which is essentially not even a country for lack of Government, Military, Police, schools, etc…    denaturalize migrants who undermine domestic tranquility, and deport any Foreign National who is a public charge, security risk, or non-compatible with Western Civilization. These goals will be pursued with the aim of achieving a major reduction in illegal and disruptive populations, including those admitted through an unauthorized and illegal Autopen approval process. Only REVERSE MIGRATION can fully cure this situation. Other than that, HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL, except those that hate, steal, murder, and destroy everything that America stands for — You won't be here for long! Trump Orders Green Card Review in the Wake of Shooting by Afghan on Overstay President Trump's Plan (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");