Podcasts about QE

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  • 524PODCASTS
  • 1,377EPISODES
  • 33mAVG DURATION
  • 1DAILY NEW EPISODE
  • Jan 18, 2022LATEST

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Best podcasts about QE

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Latest podcast episodes about QE

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: Pricing a More Hawkish Fed

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2022 3:52


While our outlook for 2022 already called for a hawkish Fed, recent signals from the central bank of more aggressive tightening have given cause to reexamine some of our calls while remaining steadfast in key aspects of our narrative for the year.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Tuesday, January 18th at 11:30 a.m. in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week, our economics team adjusted its forecast on Fed policy, given the more hawkish tone in the most recent Fed minutes and commentary from Chair Powell and other governors. We now expect the Fed to fully exit its asset purchase program known as quantitative easing by April. We also expect the Fed to increase rates by 25 basis points 4 times this year and begin balance sheet normalization by July. That's a lot of tightening, and fits with our general outlook for 2022 that we published back in November. To recall, our Fire and Ice narrative assumed the Fed was behind the curve and would need to catch up in a hurry, given the dramatic move in inflation that we've experienced during this pandemic. Public outcry and consumer confidence measures suggest inflation is the number one concern right now - making this a political issue as much as an economic one. Expect the Fed to keep pushing until financial conditions tighten. What that means for equity markets is that valuations should come down this year via a combination of higher long term interest rates and higher equity risk premiums. The changes to our Fed forecast simply mean it's likely to happen faster now, making the hand-off between lower valuations and higher earnings more challenging. This is the classic finishing move to the mid-cycle transition we've been anticipating for months, and it appears we've finally arrived. Our outlook for 2022 incorporated a fairly hawkish Fed, and while that hawkishness has increased since we published in mid-November, it doesn't change our year-end targets, which are already well below the consensus. Specifically, our base case year-end target for the S&P 500 is 4400. This compares to the median forecast of approximately 4900. Our target assumes a meaningfully lower Price Earnings multiple of 18x the forward 12-month earnings. This would be a 15% drop from the current Price Earnings multiple of 21x. Our EPS forecast is largely in line with consensus. In short, our view differs with consensus mainly on valuation rather than growth. The faster ending to QE and more aggressive rate hikes simply brings this valuation risk forward to the first half of the year. Furthermore, given the Fed's new guidance it will try to shrink its balance sheet, means valuations could even overshoot to the downside of what we think is fair value. Bottom line, the bringing forward of tapering and rate hikes is likely to lead to a 10-20% correction in the first half of this year for the S&P 500, in our view. The good news is that markets have been adjusting for months to this new reality, with 40% of the Nasdaq having corrected by 50% or more. As we've noted many times, the breadth of the market remains poor as it goes through the classic rolling correction under the surface as the index grinds higher. This phenomenon is largely due to the relentless inflows from retail investors into equities. On one hand, this rotation from bonds to stocks by asset owners makes perfect sense in a world of rising prices. After all, stocks are a decent hedge against inflation, unlike bonds. However, certain stocks fit that billing better than others. In its simplest form, it means value over growth stocks or short duration over long - think dividend growth stocks. In addition, we would favor defensively oriented value stocks relative to cyclicals, given our view growth may slow a bit more in the near term before re-accelerating in the second half. Bottom line, don't fight the Fed and be patient with new capital deployments until later this Spring. Thanks for listening! If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Macro Musings with David Beckworth
Henry Curr on the Myths and Uncomfortable Truths about QE

Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2022 51:00


Henry Curr is the economics editor for the Economist Magazine and a returning guest to the show. Henry has a new working paper out titled, “Money Printers Go Grrrr: Three Myths and Three Uncomfortable Truths about Quantitative Easing.” Henry joins Macro Musings to discuss these three myths and uncomfortable truths about QE. Specifically, David and Henry discuss the continued relevance of quantitative easing as a policy tool, QE's relationship to financial markets and its effect on the banking sector, whether we can estimate the magnitude of its effect on interest rates, whether QE necessarily boosts the monetary base, and much more.   Check out Ideas of India, another Mercatus original podcast: https://www.discoursemagazine.com/tag/ideas-of-india-podcast/   Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings   Henry's Twitter: @Henry_Curr Henry's Economist profile: https://mediadirectory.economist.com/people/henry-curr/ Henry's website: http://www.henrycurr.com/   Related Links:   *Money Printers Go Grr: Three Myths and Three Uncomfortable Truths about Quantitative Easing* by Henry Curr https://spe.org.uk/reading-room/ryb-essays/2020-21-rybczynski-prize-essay/   *Fifty Shades of QE: Comparing Findings of Central Bankers and Academics* by Brian Fabo, Martina Jančoková, Elisabeth Kempf and Ľuboš Pástor https://www.nber.org/papers/w27849   David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Thoughts on the Market
Andrew Sheets: Adjusting to a New Fed Tone

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 14, 2022 2:53


After two years of support and accommodation from the Fed, 2022 is seeing a shift in tone towards the strength of the economy and risks of inflation, meaning investors may need to reassess expectations for the year.------ Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, January 14th at 2:00 p.m. in London. Sometimes in investing, if you're lucky, you make a forecast that holds up for a long time. Other times, the facts change, and your assumptions need to change with them. We've just made some significant shifts to our assumptions for what the Federal Reserve will do this year. I want to discuss these new expectations and how we got there. The U.S. Federal Reserve influences interest rates through two main policy tools. First, it sets a target rate of interest for very short-term borrowing, which influences a lot of other interest rates. And second, it can buy government bonds and mortgages directly - influencing the rate that these bonds offer. When COVID struck, the Federal Reserve pulled hard on both of these levers, cutting its target interest rate to its lowest ever level of zero and buying trillions of government bonds and mortgages to support these markets. But now, almost two years removed from those actions, the tone from the Fed is changing, and quickly. For much of 2021, its message focused on erring on the side of caution and continuing to provide extraordinary support, even as the U.S. economy was clearly recovering. But now, that improvement is clear. The U.S. unemployment rate has fallen all the way to 3.9%, lower than where it was in January of 2018. The number of Americans claiming unemployment benefits is the lowest since 1973. And meanwhile, inflation has been elevated - with the U.S. consumer prices up 7% over the last year. All of this helps explain the sharp shift we've seen recently in the Fed's tone, which is now focusing much more on the strength of the economy, the risks of inflation and the need to dial back some of its policy support. It's this change of rhetoric, as well as that underlying data that's driven our economists to change their forecasts for the Federal Reserve. We now expect the Fed to raise interest rates 4 times this year, by a total of 1%. Just as important, we think they not only stop buying bonds in March, but start reducing their bond holdings later in the year - moving from quantitative easing, or QE, to so-called quantitative tightening, or QT. The result should help push U.S. 10-year yields higher up to 2.2%, in our view, by the middle of the year. For markets, we think this should continue to drive a bumpy first quarter for U.S. and emerging market assets. We think European stocks and financial stocks, which are both less sensitive to changes in interest rates, should outperform. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

Late Confirmation by CoinDesk
The Macro Battle That Will Shape Crypto Markets This Year

Late Confirmation by CoinDesk

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 11, 2022 20:33


A Fed shift from QE to QT and a political battle over austerity and inflation.This episode is sponsored by Nexo, Abra and FTX US.Last week, the December FOMC meeting minutes revealed that not only was the Fed expecting at least 3 rate hikes in 2022, they were actively considering “balance sheet normalization” (read: quantitative tightening). In today's episode, NLW looks at how the markets are internalizing this new information, and why it's setting up to be one of the most significant influences on markets this year. -Nexo is a powerful, all-in-one crypto platform where you can securely store your crypto. Invest, borrow, exchange and earn up to 17% APR on Bitcoin and 20+ other top coins. Insured for $375M. Audited in real-time by Armanino. Rated excellent on Trustpilot. Get started today at nexo.io.-Abra is proud to sponsor The Breakdown. Join 1M+ users and Conquer Crypto with Abra, a simple and secure app where you can trade 110+ cryptocurrencies, get 0% interest loans using crypto as collateral, and earn interest with up to 14% APY on stablecoins and 8.15% APY on Bitcoin. Visit Abra.com to get started.-FTX US is the safe, regulated way to buy Bitcoin, ETH, SOL and other digital assets. Trade crypto with up to 85% lower fees than top competitors and trade ETH and SOL NFTs with no gas fees and subsidized gas on withdrawals. Sign up at FTX.US today.-“The Breakdown '' is written, produced by and features Nathaniel Whittemore aka NLW, with editing by Rob Mitchell, Michele Musso, and Adrian Blust, research by Scott Hill and additional production support by Eleanor Pahl. Adam B. Levine is our executive producer and our theme music is “Countdown” by Neon Beach. The music you heard today behind our sponsor is “Time” by OBOY. Image credit: DNY59/Getty Images, modified by CoinDesk. Join the discussion at discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Everything Financial Radio
2021-12-26 Retirement Lifestyle Advocates Radio w/ Alasdair Macleod

Everything Financial Radio

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 26, 2021 43:54


The has long ago adopted a policy of supporting financial assets in order to maintain economic confidence. Now they've suggested that they're going to wind down the $120 billion in monthly QE by March or April of 2022. Our guest this week on Retirement Lifestyle Advocates radio is Mr. Alasdair Macleod. Your host, Dennis Tubbergen,…

IBS Intelligence Podcasts
Ep378: It's time to engage the ‘hyper' drive – why your financial institution needs hyper-automation

IBS Intelligence Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 22, 2021 14:27


Phani Tangirala, Senior Director, Delivery, Operations & Solutions, Expleo SolutionsHyper-automation is a business-driven approach that should allow you to identify and automate many of your manual business processes and IT processes. It is a way of bringing together a multiplicity of technologies, tools and platforms that will improve your efficiency and speed of delivery. It is also likely to be unavoidable if you want to stay in business for the long term! Phani Tangirala, Senior Director, Delivery, Operations & Solutions of Expleo Solutions talks hyper-automation with Robin Amlôt of IBS Intelligence.

AWM Insights Financial and Investment News
What Does Financial Structure Mean? | Brandon Averill, Justin Dyer | AWM Insights #92

AWM Insights Financial and Investment News

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 21, 2021 19:18


Financial Structure is a household's entire net worth, human capital, and tax rate evaluated in a comprehensive and holistic framework.No matter how many different accounts you have, you only have one effective tax rate. A portfolio is only one part of your Net Worth. Other assets should not be ignored.Human Capital, often the greatest asset on a personal balance sheet, should also be counted.Priorities are everything you want to achieve in life and the financial structure should be tailored to achieve those outcomes.EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS:(0:40) Markets are struggling and have finished down for three out of the last four weeks. (1:03) The Federal Reserve has pivoted to be more “hawkish” and is speeding up the end of QE and signaling faster interest rate hikes.   (2:40) The Omicron variant is having less of an impact on the market as it is proving to be less deadly than previous variants. (3:25) HSBC and Wells Fargo are settling currency trades between each other on the blockchain. A great tangible benefit and use case for the blockchain. (4:05) Reddit has filed for an IPO and will go public early next year.(4:15) The Build Back Better bill currently in Congress is not going to pass before the end of the year. Joe Manchin has shut it down and will be pushed to January. (5:20) Fed Chair Jerome Powell has publicly said he can't predict interest rates. (7:10) Financial Structure is the big picture of one net worth, one effective tax rate, and knowing the value of your human capital.(8:25) Planning is an ever present item. Waiting until the last minute means you most likely have already lost out on the opportunities.(9:00) Roth Conversions and Backdoor Roth strategies. (9:30) Mutual funds are required to pay out their capital gains in the fund. These distributions can sometimes be massive short term capital gains.(10:35) Turnover in funds, meaning they are churning their holdings through frequent buying and selling can mean a huge tax bill.(12:15) Because of the reporting, no one really sees the tax drag this causes for investors.(13:15) Tax loss harvesting is a strategy to bank losses to offset future gains while staying fully invested.(13:50) A dynamic trading system allows the opportunities to be exploited throughout the year and doesn't wait until an arbitrary date.(14:40) Integration with tax planning, investments, financial strategy, insurance, and estate planning keeps.(15:40) Many times tax preparers don't understand tax loss harvesting and many other financial planning strategies.(16:15) Donor Advised Funds and giving appreciated assets maximize impact for both you and the cause you care about.(17:10) Instead of selling and donating cash, gift the shares directly to the DAF and receive a deduction for the value of the appreciated asset.(18:40) A Donor Advised Fund explained.

Making Sense
The Houdini of Macroeconomics Escapes Inflation Box [Eurodollar University, Ep. 178]

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 20, 2021 61:00


PART 01: The Fed has to taper faster because consumer prices (i.e. motor fuel, automobiles) rose faster than it expected. It didn't have the moxie to stare down the CPI increase and explain why QE (i.e. 'money') had nothing to do with CPI. Maybe they're not really a central (money) bank.PART 02: The US consumer price index increased by 6.8% year-over-year for the month of November. Inflation, right? Undisputed, incontrovertible evidence of inflation! Step right up and watch the amazing Harry Houdini of Macroeconomics escape this box of inflation and call it "not inflation".PART 03: Headline US wholesale inventories AND sales look incredible—Hallelujah! But if we exclude petroleum products? Inventory growth is outpacing sales growth—Humbug! And if we exclude motor vehicle parts and petroleum? Inventory growth is materially ahead of sales growth—Bah Humbug!----EP. 178 REFERENCES----Taper Rejection: https://bit.ly/3maMRFsThe Higher The CPI, The Less For Inflation: https://bit.ly/3p2XZpnSure, Tomorrow the CPI But Future CPI's In Today's Inventory?: https://bit.ly/3258EHCAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlinRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7-------SHOW SPONSOR-------Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski (a/k/a Alistair Cooke, a/k/a Alistair Cookie) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from: Adam Smith, Arthur Schopenhauer, Bank for International Settlements, George Friedman, J.P. Koning, Jean-Paul Sartre, Karl Marx, Liberty Street Economics, Lyn Alden, Maroon Macro, Matt Stoeller, Michael Pettis, Myrmikan, Perry Mehrling, Robert Breedlove, Rohan Grey, Velina Tchakarova and yes, even Jeff Snider.-----SEE ALL EPISODES-----Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL----HEAR ALL EPISODES-----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr---------THE TEAM---------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments. Illustrations by David Parkins, myth maker. Audio and video editor, The Terence. Logo design by pixelist Lisa Jiang. Master of ceremonies, Emil Kalinowski. Musical intro/outro is "Our Christmas" by The Snowy Hill Singers feat. Sam Shore found at Epidemic Sound.------FIND THE TEAM-------Jeff: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPJeff: https://alhambrapartners.com/author/jsnider/Emil: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiEmil: https://www.EuroDollarEnterprises.comDavid: https://DavidParkins.com/Terence: https://www.VisualFocusMedia.comLisa: http://Lisa-Jiang.com/Lisa: https://twitter.com/@Nylonnerves

Alternative Visions
Alternative Visions - The Fed, Inflation, and the End of Fiscal Stimulus

Alternative Visions

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2021 58:05


Dr. Rasmus dissects the Federal Reserve Bank's decision this past week announcing 3 interest rate hikes next year in 2022 and a faster retreat from its Covid era $120 billion per month injection of free money to bankers and investors. In a ‘Monetary Policy 101' presentation, Rasmus explains how the Fed provides that free money (called ‘liquidity' in economist parlance) and consequences of it for the real economy and financial market bubbles. Fed traditional bond buying, QE buying, & what's called ‘Reverse Repos' are described as channels of liquidity injections by the central bank. Can monetary policy address supply side inflation? Powell's Fed is compared to Volcker's in 1980-81. Does the Fed really control interest rates? Why financial markets surged after Powell's announcement. Rasmus briefly comments on the now dead fiscal policy of the Biden administration. And predicts a slowing US economy in 2022. A concluding comment is offered on why US government economic statistics are distorted by seasonality adjustment that's broken in the era of Covid—and why current positive growth numbers for manufacturing and GDP are really negative.

Rethinking the Dollar
Central Banks Tightening Into A Liquidity Crisis | Market Crash Next!!! | The Mike & Mario Show

Rethinking the Dollar

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2021 42:24


The global debt pile now exceeds $300tn - three times GDP - that burdens the world. The problem is that debt ultimately has to be repaid or, more likely, rolled over. The modern financial cycle gyrates with the tempo of debt maturities. A renewed dose of QE, or a ‘Powell Put', seems the inevitable remedy for the next stock market sell-off. Future growth of global liquidity has seemingly become institutionalized by these debt burdens. Unless the spiral is broken by higher interest rates, global liquidity will ultimately be bound higher. Asset allocation has been put on a potentially self-destructive autopilot that ignores sensible investment criteria.

THE STANDARD Podcast
Executive Espresso EP.299 เศรษฐกิจและการลงทุน 2022 เงินเฟ้อสูงสุด 39 ปี ถอน QE ส่งผลอย่างไร

THE STANDARD Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2021 83:26


กลายเป็นข่าวร้อนที่สร้างแรงกระเพื่อมในวงกว้าง เมื่อ Fed ประกาศลด QE ควบคุมปัญหาเงินเฟ้อสูงสุดในรอบ 39 ปีของสหรัฐฯ ส่งผลให้นักลงทุนรวมถึงนักวิเคราะห์หลายภาคส่วนจับตาถึงผลกระทบที่อาจเกิดขึ้นต่อเศรษฐกิจทั่วโลก ทั้งยังคาดการณ์ถึงแนวโน้มของเศรษฐกิจในปี 2022 ว่าจะมีฉากทัศน์เปลี่ยนแปลงไปอย่างไร ประเทศไทยได้รับผลกระทบอะไรจากเหตุการณ์ครั้งนี้ ทิศทางการลงทุนในปี 2022 จะเป็นอย่างไร ธีมธุรกิจไหนที่ผู้ประกอบการต้องรีบจับตา หาคำตอบได้ใน The Secret Sauce เอพิโสดนี้ โอกาสครั้งสำคัญที่คุณไม่ควรพลาดอีก! รับชมย้อนหลัง THE STANDARD ECONOMIC FORUM 2021 งานฟอรั่มที่ชวนคุณมาปฏิรูปทุกปัญหา เพื่อก้าวต่อไปของประเทศ จัดเต็ม 20 เวที กว่า 50 สปีกเกอร์ รับชมแบบเอ็กซ์คลูซีฟพร้อมรับ Key Takeaway และบทสรุปประเด็นสำคัญจากแต่ละเวทีเสวนาทั้ง 3 วัน บัตร 3 วัน ราคา 3,900 บาท ซื้อบัตรได้แล้วที่ https://www.thaiticketmajor.com/preview/seminar/rerun-the-standard-economic-forum-2021.html (ชมย้อนหลังได้แล้วตั้งแต่วันนี้ - วันที่ 28 กุมภาพันธ์ 2565 เวลา 00.00 น.) Time Index 00:00 Start 01:22 เกริ่นนำ 05:01 ภาพรวมเหตุการณ์ Fed ประกาศลด QE เกิดอะไรขึ้น เกี่ยวอย่างไรกับเงินเฟ้อ 14:02 วิเคราะห์การตัดสินใจของ Fed และผลของ QE ในเชิงเศรษฐกิจ 23:03 สหรัฐฯ เงินเฟ้อสูงสุดรอบ 39 ปี น่ากังวลไหม 27:05 เทรนด์เศรษฐกิจโลก 2022 และปัจจัยเสี่ยงที่ต้องจับตา 47:22 สหรัฐฯ วุ่นวาย-จีนคุมเข้ม-คริปโตพุ่งแรง วางแผนการลงทุนอย่างไรดีปี 2022 54:54 ‘พอร์ตจีน' ถือต่อหรือพอแค่นี้ ปี 2022 จะเป็นอย่างไร 58:59 คาดการณ์เศรษฐกิจไทยปี 2022 และความเสี่ยงที่ต้องระวัง 01:10:09 3 ธีมธุรกิจมาแรง คำแนะนำถึงผู้ประกอบการ 01:19:34 บทเรียนจากปี 2021 ถึงนักธุรกิจทุกคน

The Secret Sauce
EE299 เศรษฐกิจและการลงทุน 2022 เงินเฟ้อสูงสุด 39 ปี ถอน QE ส่งผลอย่างไร

The Secret Sauce

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 17, 2021 83:26


กลายเป็นข่าวร้อนที่สร้างแรงกระเพื่อมในวงกว้าง เมื่อ Fed ประกาศลด QE ควบคุมปัญหาเงินเฟ้อสูงสุดในรอบ 39 ปีของสหรัฐฯ ส่งผลให้นักลงทุนรวมถึงนักวิเคราะห์หลายภาคส่วนจับตาถึงผลกระทบที่อาจเกิดขึ้นต่อเศรษฐกิจทั่วโลก ทั้งยังคาดการณ์ถึงแนวโน้มของเศรษฐกิจในปี 2022 ว่าจะมีฉากทัศน์เปลี่ยนแปลงไปอย่างไร   ประเทศไทยได้รับผลกระทบอะไรจากเหตุการณ์ครั้งนี้ ทิศทางการลงทุนในปี 2022 จะเป็นอย่างไร ธีมธุรกิจไหนที่ผู้ประกอบการต้องรีบจับตา หาคำตอบได้ใน The Secret Sauce เอพิโสดนี้   โอกาสครั้งสำคัญที่คุณไม่ควรพลาดอีก! รับชมย้อนหลัง THE STANDARD ECONOMIC FORUM 2021 งานฟอรั่มที่ชวนคุณมาปฏิรูปทุกปัญหา เพื่อก้าวต่อไปของประเทศ จัดเต็ม 20 เวที กว่า 50 สปีกเกอร์ รับชมแบบเอ็กซ์คลูซีฟพร้อมรับ Key Takeaway และบทสรุปประเด็นสำคัญจากแต่ละเวทีเสวนาทั้ง 3 วัน   บัตร 3 วัน ราคา 3,900 บาท ซื้อบัตรได้แล้วที่ https://www.thaiticketmajor.com/preview/seminar/rerun-the-standard-economic-forum-2021.html (ชมย้อนหลังได้แล้วตั้งแต่วันนี้ - วันที่ 28 กุมภาพันธ์ 2565 เวลา 00.00 น.)   Time Index 00:00 Start 01:22 เกริ่นนำ 05:01 ภาพรวมเหตุการณ์ Fed ประกาศลด QE เกิดอะไรขึ้น เกี่ยวอย่างไรกับเงินเฟ้อ 14:02 วิเคราะห์การตัดสินใจของ Fed และผลของ QE ในเชิงเศรษฐกิจ 23:03 สหรัฐฯ เงินเฟ้อสูงสุดรอบ 39 ปี น่ากังวลไหม 27:05 เทรนด์เศรษฐกิจโลก 2022 และปัจจัยเสี่ยงที่ต้องจับตา 47:22 สหรัฐฯ วุ่นวาย-จีนคุมเข้ม-คริปโตพุ่งแรง วางแผนการลงทุนอย่างไรดีปี 2022 54:54 ‘พอร์ตจีน' ถือต่อหรือพอแค่นี้ ปี 2022 จะเป็นอย่างไร 58:59 คาดการณ์เศรษฐกิจไทยปี 2022 และความเสี่ยงที่ต้องระวัง 01:10:09 3 ธีมธุรกิจมาแรง คำแนะนำถึงผู้ประกอบการ 01:19:34 บทเรียนจากปี 2021 ถึงนักธุรกิจทุกคน

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
A Dove Can't Change Its Feathers – Ep 761

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 16, 2021 60:51


Elizabeth Warren blames inflation on greedy business owners. Producers aren't price gouging. They're being gouged. Fed should stop QE now, not just taper it. Retail consumers are buying less and paying more. Congress raises the debt ceiling $2.5 Trillion. History will judge Jerome Powell before his second term ends. Thanks Ladder Life Insurance. Go to https://ladderlife.com/gold today to see if you're instantly approved. Free $75 credit to upgrade your post at https://indeed.com/peter. Terms and conditions apply. Offer valid through December 31, 2021. INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff

NAB Morning Call
Fed's turbo taper and dots surprise

NAB Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 15, 2021 16:10


Thursday 16th December 2021 The Fed, not surprisingly, are tapering faster as the race is on to lift rates next year. NAB's David de Garis says the QE ending by March clears the decks, with a revised inflation forecast speeding up the expectations of rises. Markets were expecting a hawkish tilt, so they haven't been surprised. The Bank of England decision is less easy to read later on, with Britain's high inflation number overnight offset by the highest number of daily COVID infections since the pandemic began. The ECB follows shortly after that, in a busy day which also sees PMIs across the globe and Aussie employment numbers.

NAB Morning Call
It's all about dots and jabs

NAB Morning Call

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2021 15:05


Wednesday 15th December 2021 Markets are still pulled in two directions. First there's the continued uncertainty of the new COVID variant, which might be mild (or not), but is spreading like wildfire in the UK right now and the race is on to have booster jabs across the globe. Then there's the inflation question and how quickly central banks will respond to it. A sharp increase in producer prices in the US has added to the ammunition for the Fed to move faster, with the next FOMC meeting tomorrow. It is assumed QE will end in March, the question is how many dot points for rate rises are expected next year. Whilst the Fed might predict two, markets are pricing for three. NAB's Rodrigo Catril says if the FOMC suggests three, the markets might move their expectations to four. It seems whatever the Fed chooses, markets expect more!

Forward Guidance
Are Bonds Pricing in a Market Crash? | Alfonso Peccatiello

Forward Guidance

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2021 66:14


Today's guest, Alfonso Peccatiello, is a man with a rare insight into the macro forces driving the moves in markets which have perplexed many, but not all, investors. One such move is the recent flattening of the yield curve, which belies commonly-held views about the relationship between bond yields and inflation. Up until very recently, Alfonso was running a multi-billion dollar fixed-income book. But he has left the world of portfolio management behind him to focus full time on writing and thinking about macro. His analysis can be found on his newsletter, The Macro Compass. Alfonso shares with Blockworks' Jack Farley the real reason why long-term bond yields have been falling. Among other topics, the pair discuss: - the global credit impulse turning negative - long-term structural forces (such as demographics & debt)  - why quantitative easing (QE) isn't inflationary Alfonso Peccatiello's Twitter: @MacroAlf Jack Farley's Twitter: @JackFarley96 Alfonso Peccatiello's newsletter, The Macro Compass: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/ Article on quantitative easing: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/tmc-6-all-they-told-you-about-printing Article on 2022 outlook: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio

Simply Economics
UP 262: A more aggressive Fed and 'Super Thursday'

Simply Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 14, 2021 21:14


It's a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on 'Super Thursday'. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.

Market Champions
188|"What I Learnt from Managing $20B" ft. Alfonso Peccatiello with Srivatsan Prakash

Market Champions

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 12, 2021 54:05


Alfonso Peccatiello was recently the manager of a $20B bond portfolio for a European bank, and now writes the Macro Compass newsletter full time. Here he discusses QE, credit, money printing, inflation vs deflation, what it was like running $20B and more! Here's his most recent newsletter piece, discussing the macro framework needed for 2022: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/2022portfolio An interview with a lot of alpha on offer!

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
Central Banks to have their say: The Global Markets FX Week Ahead Podcast

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2021 13:35


The week ahead – the final full week of trading for many markets – will be packed with Central Bank meetings. There will be no fewer than six G10 Central Bank announcements and seven amongst Emerging Markets Central Banks. Derek Halpenny, Head of Research for Global Markets EMEA and International Securities, hones in on a few of the key announcements with Michael Owen, MUFG's Head of Global Client desk in London. What does Friday's US CPI print mean for the Fed, the expectations of QE tapering being quickened and for the dollar more broadly especially when compared to policy announcements from the ECB and BoE? Listen now to find out. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

Nomura Podcasts
The Week Ahead – 10 December 2021

Nomura Podcasts

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2021 31:26


In this episode of our Week Ahead series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US, we find out if the Fed will accelerate their tapering of QE. In Europe the key question is whether the BOE will hike and if the ECB will deliver a hawkish tone. Also, we're watching a European energy crisis unfold, Geopolitical tensions, events in Asia, and the key data releases to watch.

UpOnly with Cobie & Ledger
Macro crypto narratives and investing via first principles, with Jordi Alexander

UpOnly with Cobie & Ledger

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 8, 2021 134:35


LinksJordi TwitterShow PartnerThis episode is presented by FTX. Trade on an awesome mobile interface fee-free, and still get all the great portfolio tracking features you know and love: https://uponly.tv/ftxShow NotesCrypto Intro– Started off as a professional poker player– Then was working as a trader– Was in San Francisco during 2016, impossible not to hear about crypto– Was trading bonds and gold– Then went 80/20 gold/bitcoin, then 50/50, now just 100% Bitcoin– Gold is just always $1800 lolDOGE Debate– @gametheorizing debated Su Zhu on if Doge could be real money– main take – the centralization of ownership just makes it impossible– Liquidity has been a huge reason for these meme run upsLiquidity– Low liquidity changes everyones hopes– Once we're in a bear market, everything will likely make more sense as low liquidity drives shitcoins way down– There will be backlash to extreme wealth inequality that's created from crypto wealth– Like trillionaires based off of a new internet will not sit well with peopleCobie Wealth Talk– Humans create more wealth over time– Bitcoin creates a fixed supply of money– In the end, won't people be incentivized to not work or invest and just hold?– game: “Cobie is absolutely right, in the end we'll likely get something like inflation around 2%. Bitcoin will have to change”– game: “We have a saying in poker that a sucker will soon be parted from his money”– Cobie: “It may be a bit cynical but I feel like wealth always centralizes”– game: “You're absolutely right. The wealth inequality is huge now and its growing. Something's going to have to change”Regulation– Ledger: “It would be simpler if you could “call a spade a spade” and let these tokens be a security if that's their best use case, instead of making founders pigeon hole their tokens utility into something that makes less sense”2022 Theses– game: “If you have any dog coins you should sell them”– “Come January we still have a bit more of a bull run”– “Only time the bull run stops is when there's no more QE, rates get raised, which is maybe later next year”– so basically all this money gets sucked out, rates go up and holding cash feels better than it does now– The mid tier NFTs are not keeping a bidPonzis– Back when this started, people would say “Bitcoin's a ponzi”– Some things are more ponzi than others– Basically, need real value creation for something to not be a “ponzi”– Cobie: “Can you explain how OHM works?”– game: “OHM is also a ponzi. The tokenomics is much more complex which hides it, so like it was a ponzi but now holds all these other coins”– Ledger: “Is governance enough?”– game: “absolutely”– Cobie: “Can you explain how HEX works?”– game: “HEX was ahead of its time. It's a very complex ponzi.”– Cobie: “If you are early to a ponzi then its great right… what would you say to people joining ponzis now?”– game: “in a liquidity crunch, the ponzis go away, and they get closer to NAV valuation. There is real value in community and people will pay for that, so that's an end game for some of them. Same with NFTs”Web3– Feels like there are a bunch of random VCs coming up– You don't just “decentralize” everything like “decentralized Uber”– game thinks we get something more like web2.5 where celebrities and others start using NFTs as pfps and stuff– game: “crypto is the best casino. Like we have Bitcoin store of value, L1s with smart contracts, then casinos”– Web3 is kinda like companies just having tokens to incentivize and provide rewards– game: “Once you have an NFT world where you can use them it's not a ponzi anymore”– Ledger: “Tokenization of communities, with VIP access and other stuff, is a good use of tokens and NFTs”Trading– Ledger: “There are people for whom this year has been absolutely stupid, just chasing the pump, marrying now bags and not holding any Bitcoin”– Shitcoins up or down by end of 2022?– Cobie: “idk. if it tops in march or may then maybe up, if it tops in january then probably down”Scenario That Extends Cycle?– realistically probably not– will likely trickle down to smaller caps– only thing that pushes it is if Fed keeps printing/ rates lowCT Drama– Su Zhu super dunking on Ethereum then buying it, using followers as liquidity, basically become a super villain – is this a pro or con for Three Arrows Capital?– game: “Completely depends on founders. Reminds me of Bobby Axelrod on Billions”Feds in Crypto– game talked with Su Zhu in depth about future of ETH if it was a $10T asset– it will become very political, countries forcing votes that benefits them, etc– only makes sense Feds are in crypto now lolETH as Money– Who cares what you call it?– The “ultra sound money” meme is awful– Why would you want deflationary money?– *insert various examples of why it doesn't matter if you call it money e.g. if you buy a million dollar house is your house money? who cares!End Game of USD?– It's honestly super strong– If there's no geopolitical power change it just stays in controlBlow Off Top?– Thought there was gonna be one– Used to be 60% chance, now more like 20% chanceNotes by KevinMusic by GiovanniPickle

The Real Investment Show Podcast
Market Rebound Continues

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2021 3:25


(12/7/21) Markets continue to rebound, as expected, heading towards mid-month. Markets are now set to rally toward the 20-DMA, but we're not quite finished with Mutual Fund rebalancing, and there is still short-term risk. Getting into early 2022-, the Fed will captivate investor attention, and whether and when it will tighten QE. Also look for 2022 headwinds in the form of lower profit margins, higher rates of inflation, wage-growth and employment costs--all of which have been supportive of current market valuations. But next year, as earnings begin to reflect underlying economic deterioration, valuations will be much more challenging. Bitcoin, too, is beginning to show signs of the risk-off attitude, falling in tandem with markets. We're watching for a crypto-rally, but there's still plenty of resistance. - Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/news... -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KRN74ZX5UE&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Register for our next Lunch & Learn: https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/9616369301708/WN_X_zZBPQCQX2VnVXJlvUE5g -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestme... https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinves... #MarketRebound #CryptoCurrency #Bitcoin ##Inflation #WageGrowth #EmploymentCosts #Markets #Money #Investing

Simply Economics
UP 261: An Omicron spanner in the works?

Simply Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 7, 2021 32:43


Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.

Thoughts on the Market
Mike Wilson: Why Have Stocks Been So Weak?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2021 3:36


The past few weeks have seen weak valuations across equity markets. While many look to the Omicron variant as the main culprit, the correction may have more to do with the recent Fed pivot.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bring you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the latest trends in the financial marketplace. It's Monday, December 6th at 2:30 p.m. in New York. So let's get after it. While there's evidence the past few weeks have been rough for equity investors, there's a lot of debate around why stocks have been so weak. To us, it seemed like too much attention had been put on the new COVID variant, Omicron, as the primary culprit. Our focus has been much more on the Fed's more aggressive pivot on tapering asset purchases. Last Tuesday, Fed Chair Jay Powell told Congress that it was time to retire the word 'transient' when talking about inflation. This was a significant change for a Fed that had been arguing inflation would likely settle back down next year as supply chains adjusted to the increased demand. As a result, the Fed is now likely to reduce its asset purchase program - known as quantitative easing, or QE - twice as fast as it had previously told us. In short, we now expect the Fed to be completely done with its QE program by the end of March. That is quite a speedy exit in our view and is likely to leave a mark on asset prices. Hence, the sharp correction in stocks last week, especially the most expensive ones. Importantly, this move by the Fed is very much in line with our mid-cycle transition narrative that regular listeners should recognize. From an investment standpoint, the most important thing one needs to know about the mid-cycle transition is that valuations typically come down. In S&P 500 terms, it's typically 20%. So far, we've seen valuations come down by only 10%, making this normalization process only about halfway done, at least at the index level. The good news is many individual stocks have gone through a derating of much greater than 20% already. The bad news is that while some of the most expensive stocks have been hit the hardest, they still look expensive when normalizing for the period of over-earning these companies enjoyed in 2021. Sectors we think look particularly vulnerable include consumer discretionary and technology stocks. Sectors that look cheap are health care and financials. Another consideration for investors is the fact that this White House appears to be more focused on getting inflation under control, rather than keeping the stock market propped up. This might give the Fed cover to stay the course on its plans to withdraw policy accommodation more aggressively. In other words, investors should not be so confident the Fed will reverse course quickly if stocks continue to wobble into year end. Finally, the new variant can't be completely ignored and does pose a risk to demand. However, we always expected another big wave of COVID this winter as the cold weather set in. In fact, the recent spike in cases in the US are almost exclusively the Delta variant. In other words, we would be seeing this spike with or without Omicron's arrival. This is one of the reasons we've been expecting demand to disappoint in the first quarter and another thing that markets will have to deal with as we go into next year. Bottom line, expect markets to remain volatile into year-end as investors are forced to chase and de-risk depending on the price action. In short, moves up and down will be accentuated by asset managers trying to keep up with their benchmarks. In such an environment, we recommend investors continue to keep their risk lower than normal with a focus on large cap quality stocks trading at a reasonable valuation. We expect that over the next three to four months, markets will give us a much fatter pitch to swing at as the Fed completes its exit from QE and growth bottoms. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Dave Lee on Investing
Jerome Powell Changes Course - What it means for stocks, TSLA (Ep. 461)

Dave Lee on Investing

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 5, 2021 7:37


I discuss Jerome Powell and the Fed's changing thoughts on inflation, QE, bond purchase, interest rates and the reaction of the stock market, especially growth stocks like DOCU, PTON, TDOC, ZM, SHOP, SQ, CRWD and TSLA. “Powell signals support for quicker ‘taper' of Fed's bond-buying scheme” - Financial Times, Nov 30, 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/181021d7-9dc4-4a55-a8e9-d5ae26e8e5c1 Social

Market Mover
Come aggiustare il portafoglio se la Fed ritira gli stimoli monetari

Market Mover

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2021 9:37


Il rincaro dei prezzi al consumo è stata una delle novità più rilevanti di questa fase di graduale ritorno alla normalità. Con i vaccini ci sono state le riaperture e la domanda di beni e servizi è tornata a crescere sostenuta. Senza però che la grande e complessa catena di fornitura mondiale si fosse rimessa in moto a pieni giri. Di qui appunto l'inflazione. Un fenomeno che i banchieri centrali hanno subito bollato come transitorio. Anche per giustificare il mantenimento delle politiche espansive anti-crisi varate per fare i conti con le conseguenze della pandemia. Ora però queste giustificazioni non sembrano reggere più. Almeno per la Fed, che si prepara a ridurre l'ammontare di titoli acquistati nel piano di Quantitative easing. Con quale impatto su mercati e investimenti? Proviamo a capirlo con l'aiuto di Giacomo Calef, country manager di NS Partners.

Guggenheim Macro Markets
Episode 3: December 2, 2021

Guggenheim Macro Markets

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 2, 2021 24:30


Topics this week include the pace of QE tapering and the omicron variant, fundamentals in municipal bonds, and developments in the bank loan market, which is an important asset class for Guggenheim's Floating Rate Strategies Fund, which just achieved its 10-year anniversary. Featuring Allen Li, Managing Director and Head of Guggenheim's Municipal Bond Sector Team; Paul Dozier, a Director in the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group; and Brian DePaulo, a Director and Portfolio Manager for corporate loan strategies, in discussion with Jay Diamond, Head of Thought Leadership.

Mission to the Moon Podcast

Head Line Mission Daily Report Dec 1, 2021 1. อัปเดตตัวเลขผู้ที่ได้รับการฉีดวัคซีน Covid-19 ในประเทศไทย 2. ราคาดัชนีตลาดหลักทรัพย์ / ราคาหุ้นต่างประเทศ / ราคาน้ำมันดิบ / ราคาทองคำ / ราคา Cryptocurrency 3. บริษัทวัคซีน โมเดอร์นา แสดงทัศนะต่อ Omicron 4. แพทย์อิสราเอลติดโควิดสายพันธุ์ Omicron 5. หุ่นยนต์จากเซลล์ของสิ่งมีชีวิต สร้างตัวเองได้ 6. สหรัฐเงินเฟ้อพุ่ง เฟดส่งสัญญาณยุติมาตรการ QE เร็วขึ้น 7. บาร์เบโดส เปลี่ยนผ่านสู่การเป็นสาธารณรัฐอย่างเต็มรูปแบบ 8. ORIS : Sun Wukong Limited Edition 9. Money Mission วางแผนการเงินแต่ละอาชีพ 10. Nissan เตรียมผลิตรถยนต์ไฟฟ้าภายในปี 2030 11. เสียวหมี่ เผยแผนสร้างโรงงานผลิตรถยนต์ไฟฟ้า 12. บางจากและหลายธุรกิจเริ่มรับชำระด้วยคริปโต 13. ตรวจพบการลักลอบเข้าสารเสพติดจากไทยไปยังหลายประเทศ 14. ครม. ประชุมรับมือเปิดประเทศไม่ให้เสี่ยงเชิญสายพันธุ์ Omiicron 15. บริการจัดการหุ่นยนต์ในโกดังให้ทำงานเป็นทีม 16. เตรียมขุดเจาะน้ำแข็งขั้วโลกใต้ศึกษาการเปลี่ยนแปลงของสภาพภูมิอากาศ

Nightly Business Report
Powell Tanks Stocks, Consumer Confidence Hits 9-Month Low, Green Apple in a Sea of Red

Nightly Business Report

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 30, 2021 46:26


Fed Chair Jay Powell triggering a sell-off after he said the QE taper timeline could accelerate and that inflation is no longer ‘transitory.' We dig into what it means for the equity and bond markets…and where to find opportunities. Consumer Confidence hit a low not seen since February as inflation continues to weigh…Conference Board CEO Steve Odland digs into what it means for retailers and the labor market. And Apple was a rare bright spot, Needham's Laura Martin reveals why she's staying bullish on the tech giant despite the tech wreck.

Dave Lee on Investing
The Looming Stock Market Correction? w/ Puru Saxena (Ep. 456)

Dave Lee on Investing

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 23, 2021 76:05


I'm joined by retired money money Puru Saxena as we discuss his thoughts on a possible market correction, the role of the Fed's QE tapering, and various approaches to hedging. Puru Saxena on Twitter: https://twitter.com/saxena_puru Timestamps: 00:00 - Introduction 01:10 - Why Puru think the market has topped and a correction is under way 11:30 - What if the bubble has already popped with speculative high growth stocks? 16:12 - Does Puru think the FAANG stocks could also go down 20% next year? 17:10 - Counterargument that the S&P 500 is priced cheap at 21x next year's earning 20:50 - Is Fed main driver of inflation? 23:05 - Why is there rising inflation this QE and not prior? 24:25 - Dave's counterargument that economy could be experiencing major boost from online consumption 36:20 - If real economy is strong, then perhaps no major correction 40:00 - What is Puru doing to hedge? Or raise cash? 46:15 - Does Puru use a stop loss with his short positions? 49:30 - How Puru uses moving averages to set exit and entry points 54:30 - Thoughts on different options to hedge 59:20 - Danger of pulling out of market and not getting back in 1:03:50 - Who does Puru follow on Twitter? 1:05:00 - How much value does Puru place on technical analysis and why? 1:06:45 - Yield curve inversion 1:08:25 - Investment goals & benchmark 1:10:00 - What keeps Puru motivated? 1:14:15 - Conclusion Social

Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago
Powell Reappointed, Nothing Has Really Changed - Nick Santiago 11-22-21 #342Nick #342

Daily Market Wisdom with Nick Santiago

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 22, 2021 6:11


1. President Biden renominates Fed Chairman Jay Powell for another term. This morning, President Biden renominated Fed Chairman Jay Powell to another term. Many investors and traders thought he was going to nominate Lael Brainard to the position as she is very far left. He did nominate Dr. Lael Brainard to serve as Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Gold sold off sharply after the announcement as Powell is the more hawkish of the two nominees. Holiday trading week. Euphoria continues.2. Stocks are in rally mode this morning. The catalyst for the move higher is due to the Jay Powell nomination. Obviously, the stock market is looking at this nomination as a relief choice since Powell is the person in charge of the QE tapering. To his credit he has been able to keep stocks elevated without any panics.3. Bitcoin has stalled out a bit today, but as long as it stays above the $52,000.00 level it is fine. A close below that key support area would spell real trouble. 4. Gold taking a big hit, down 2 percent. Nick had been warning of a pullback once gold hit 1860 and is now pulling back, as expected. Below $1760 is a key support level.

The Bitcoin Standard Podcast
93. The resilience of stock-to-flow with PlanB

The Bitcoin Standard Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 20, 2021 121:10


In this episode, Saifedean invites back PlanB to back discuss the resilience of his stock-to-flow bitcoin pricing model in the face of global economic changes. They talk about the range of events that have impacted the bitcoin price since the model’s inception – Covid lockdowns, MicroStrategy, Elon Musk, China mining ban, El Salvador – and why the price has largely stayed within one standard deviation of the model’s baseline throughout. They also discuss institutional interest in bitcoin, which countries might follow El Salvador in adopting bitcoin as legal tender, and how QE and lockdown-created supply chain issues are causing global price inflation. In the Q&A, PlanB answers questions about money printing, whether S2F should be used to trade, and bitcoin’s short-term price outlook.

Making Sense
Next Fed Chair to be Theoretical Lexicographer [Eurodollar University, Ep. 157]

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2021 62:00


PART 01: Around the world data shows consumer prices are accelerating like we haven't seen in years, even decades. Why? Is it because politicians are wantonly giving away money? Are gluttonous central bankers printing cash? Is it a supply/demand imbalance? Is this the 1970s Great Inflation?PART 02: The "landmine" has been part of each of the four global/regional dollar squeezes of the past 14 years (2007-09, 2011-12, 2014-16, 2018-20). The "landmine" is when US Treasury Bond yields decline precipitously and signal that economic potential has been seriously maimed. Where are we in 2021? PART 03: The last time the Federal Reserve tapered its QE program the central bank spent HOURS and HOURS and HOURS and HOURS on determining which adjective to us. Adverbs. Dangling participles, onomatopoeia, clauses, subject and object. What was NOT discussed? Money. Credit. Collateral.---------SPONSOR----------Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski (a/k/a Alistair Cooke, a/k/a Alistair Cookie) reading the latest essays, blog posts, speeches and excerpts from economics, geopolitics and more. Interesting people write interesting things, why not listen and hear what they have to say? You could do worse things with your time (i.e. Bloomberg, CNBC, et cetera). Recent readings include thoughts from: Adam Smith, Arthur Schopenhauer, Bank for International Settlements, George Friedman, J.P. Koning, Jean-Paul Sartre, Karl Marx, Liberty Street Economics, Lyn Alden, Maroon Macro, Matt Stoeller, Michael Pettis, Myrmikan, Perry Mehrling, Robert Breedlove, Rohan Grey, Velina Tchakarova and yes, even Jeff Snider.-----SEE EPISODE 157------Alhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL-----HEAR EPISODE 157----Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MReason: https://bit.ly/3lt5NiHSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr----EP. 157c REFERENCES---What Does The Rest of the Market Think About The ‘Epic' CPI (TIPS, breakevens, even consumers themselves): https://bit.ly/30dfJ8hHow Can A CPI Now Above Six Price Like This?: https://bit.ly/3c1ScsXLandmine Review: The Big One: https://bit.ly/3EXXEJYLandmine Lurking, Gotta Make Tantrum Happen Before It's Too Late (again): https://bit.ly/3wBZ3miWhat Does Taper Look Like From The Inside? Not At All What You'd Think: https://bit.ly/3C77qYfAlhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlinRealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7-----------WHO-------------Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins, lipstick lampoonist. Podcast intro/outro is "Moonshiner's Turn" by Martin Landström found at Epidemic Sound.

Game Brain: A Board Game Podcast with Matthew Robinson and his Gaming Group
Round 14, Turn 5: "The Hunger" with Jake and Paul

Game Brain: A Board Game Podcast with Matthew Robinson and his Gaming Group

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 15, 2021 102:59


0:00:00–Introduction: Welcome Casual Gamer Jake and Game-Breaker Paul0:06:55–This Week's Game Night: Monumental, The Hunger, Darwin's Journey, Lowlands, Wavelength0:15:54–Game News: Wayfarers of the South Tigris, Devil Bunny Needs a Ham, Kill Doctor Lucky, Before I Kill You Mister Spy, Deadwood, Devil Bunny Versus the Entire Galaxy, Brian Boru: High King of Ireland, The King is Dead, Hegemony, QE, Here I Stand0:37:26–Games on the Brain: Game Brain at the BGG Con0:41:04–Review of The Hunger: Magic, The Gathering, Clank, Ticket to Ride1:05:12–Storytelling in Games: Detective, Sea Fall, Cloud Spire, Sherlock Holmes: Consulting Detective, Chronicle of Crime, Betrayal Legacy: Betrayal at the House on the Hill, Robinson Crusoe, Twilight Struggle, Battlestar Galactica, Game of Thrones, Dune, Pandemic Legacy, Battlestar Galactica, Teixhal, Die Macher, Agricola, Trickerion, Santiago, Coimbra, Fresh Fish, Tichu, Ricochet Robots, In and Of Itself, Arabian Nights. Fiasco, Everdell, King's Dilemma, Oath, Container1:36:02–Game Sommelier: Tactics II, Gettysburg, Fortress Europa, Undaubted Normandy, Undaunted North Africa, Twilight Struggle, Lord of the Rings, Hannibal: Rome v Carthage, Napoleon's Triumph, Memoir 44, Quartermaster General1:42:30–Sign Off

Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro
Central Banks Clueless, Inflation and Growth - FED 70

Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2021 54:02


In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine's “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down to give an update on Fed news and central bank activity around the world. Topics in this episode include, people at the Federal Reserve and their positions, the Fed Stability Report, Treasury curve update and inversions, the inflation narrative, ECB and BoJ updates, and of course, bitcoin. Bitcoin Day Kansas City First, Christian and I debriefed the recent Bitcoin Day event in Kansas City where I spoke about the end of the dollar system as we know it. It was a great event, with another one coming up in Sacramento early next year. I might try getting one down in Jacksonville next year as well, so be watching out for that. Fed News Next, we jump right into Fed news, starting with the resignation of Quarles. This was kind of a surprise since he had over 10 years left in his term. He has recently faced some backlash from progressive members of Congress, along with Powell, as slightly more hawkish members of the Fed who ignore MMT (modern monetary theory) nut-jobs.  This resignation has a chess move aspect to it. Brainard, who has recently been threatening to take Powell's job as Chairman, was first favored for Quarles' position as Head of Supervision. With him gone, Brainard now has an easy path to simply fill that role, leaving Powell basically uncontested for the Chairman reappointment. These moves might seem insignificant to those who are unaware of the shifting tide within the central bank elite. Most central bankers around the world are looking to MMT and CBDCs (central bank digital currencies) as a way to break out of the debt trap and deflationary environment which the world finds itself in. Powell has the most important central bank job in the world. He has been standing in the way of that dangerous agenda. In a similar fashion to a geopolitical realignment, from NATO to AUKUS, Powell appears to represent the same division, from global concerns to national, within the central bank elites. Fed Stability Report This week the Federal Reserve published their biannual Stability Report. This report is meant to increase transparency of the Fed, to show the public what they are paying attention to, and what could possibly affect their monetary policy going forward. The main highlights from the report is the Fed's warning about a rising risk to risk assets. Of course, the mainstream financial press is going to hop on that with their usual gusto. Another interest warning from the report was about Evergrande and the rising risk of contagion out of China. We've been way ahead on this, talking about this very situation for months now. We all know the horrible shape that the Chinese economy is in, and that is slowly working its way into the mainstream investor consciousness. My prediction, based on the fact that this report came at basically the same time as the taper announcement, is that the Fed is setting up a scapegoat for when they have to eventually halt or reverse course on the taper. They will blame their “policy error” on China and the sheer power of their monetary policy. It's comical. Their monetary policy literally does nothing, else we'd have no problems to worry about. US Yield Curve Next we talk about yield curves. We aren't experts on the bond market, but we know that the bond market is much smarter than we are, and much smarter than the Fed. I highlight that the 20-year and 30-year yields are still inverted, along with the 5-year and 10-year breakevens. The latter being the most inverted in history! This should tell us that all is not well with this recent market action. Inflation expectations in the future are mixed, signaling a severe retracement in the “recovery” and the CPI. The inflation narrative is going rabid. It's gotten to the point where people are making fun of the transitory stance despite all signs to the contrary. It's as if the critics haven't looked at a chart recently. But nevermind, the inflation narrative is a huge bonus for bitcoin in the eyes of investors, while at the same time, the deflationary low growth fundamentals are also great for bitcoin. CPI comes out today, which we predict will be higher than last month (but still in a slowing trend) and cause even more rabid inflation propaganda benefiting bitcoin. Global Central Bank Update By comparison, there is little news from Europe and the ECB, or Japan and the BoJ. First for the ECB; it seems as though the ECB is a few months behind the Fed and is still driving home the transitory nature of this recent CPI spike. Mind you, their headline CPI was only 3% in September, where the US's was 5%.  The Bank of Japan has even less news to report on. They are stuck with very low inflation. Their headline number is 0.2%, and less food and energy is -0.5%. This is despite promising and actually being irresponsible in the QE and spending department. The BoJ is failing so badly in getting inflation, they have to come out weekly and reaffirm their dedication to being irresponsible and attempting to hit their 2% target. Next, I asked the audience to answer a question for this episode on twitter. You have to quote the Bitcoin Magazine tweet for the episode and tag me. “If the US is exporting inflation, why are the ECB and BOJ's inflation rates so much lower than the US's, especially when they have “printed” more money relative to GDP?” Why is the relationship actually inverse? The more a central bank seems to expand their balance sheet, the lower the inflation, even then the US is supposedly exporting inflation with the highest trade deficit ever. The best answer wins a copy of the Bitcoin Dictionary. We wrap up the show by discussing bitcoin in the context of what we are seeing out there in macro. How bitcoin is a source of growth for all who adopt it. We touch on many important topics in this last minute rip, like velocity of money, bitcoin vs traditional interest rates, surging energy prices, ESG shooting itself in the foot, and layer two fee dynamics with the base layer. Thanks for listening. If you found this episode informational, please share and give us a rating on iTunes so others can find the show! --------------------------------------------- Bitcoin Magazine is back in print! Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door! Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21 https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription   "The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox! Check it out for free here! deepdivebtc.substack.com/welcome   Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022 Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21 https://b.tc/conference/

The Property Podcast
ASK310: Where should I put my cash while I save up? PLUS: How does QE actually get into the economy?

The Property Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 9, 2021 9:20


The Robs are back with more listener questions!  First up is Geoff, who wants to know what the best kind of way to save his money is.  Second is from Ian, who wants to know about quantitative easing.  He wants to know how money raised via QE makes it's way back into the economy.   Tune in to find out.  Do you have a buy-to-let or property investment related question for Rob & Rob? You could feature on the next episode by giving us a call on 013 808 00035 and leaving a message with your name and question (normal UK call rates apply).     Or if you prefer, click here to leave a recording via your computer instead.  The next question on Ask Rob & Rob could be yours.   Have you joined us over on the Property Hub Forum yet? Our online community is friendly, informative, and the members are waiting to welcome you with open arms. So, get yourself over and introduce yourself.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast
It's Taper Time! But So What? SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast 11.05.21

SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 5, 2021 16:08


The Federal Reserve wrapped up its FOMC meeting on Wednesday and finally announced the much-anticipated QE taper. The Fed will cut its bond-buying program by about $15 billion a month. But so what? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey digs into the Fed announcement and raises some very important questions. You can visit the show notes page here: https://bit.ly/3bOCfpO Tune in to the Friday Gold Wrap each week for a recap of the week's economic and political news as it relates to gold and silver, along with some insightful commentary. For more information visit https://schiffgold.com/news.

Thoughts on the Market
Andrew Sheets: A Taper Without a Tantrum?

Thoughts on the Market

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2021 3:11


Central bank support has been a key driver of market strength since last year. So how will markets react during the months-long tapering process?----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues, bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Thursday, November 4th at 2p.m. in London. Since the start of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve, along with many other global central banks, instituted massive purchase programs of government bonds and mortgages. These purchases, known as quantitative easing, or QE, were designed to keep interest rates low and boost liquidity in financial markets during a time of stress. Since February of 2020, these purchases caused the Fed's bond holdings to rise by $4.4 Trillion dollars. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced its intention to start dialing these purchases back. To be clear, the Fed will still be buying a lot of bonds over the coming months. But after buying $120 billion of securities in October, the fed will buy $105 billion in November and $90 billion in December, a trend our economists think mean that they will cease these purchases entirely by June of next year. This ‘tapering' of purchases and its impact for markets is a major source of debate. One school of thought is that central bank support has been the main driver of market strength, not just recently, but going all the way back to the global financial crisis. Markets, after all, have done better when the Fed has been buying bonds. But as much as you'll hear phrases like "the market is only up because of the Federal Reserve", this idea can suffer from some real statistical fallacies. Yes, markets have done better when the Fed has felt the need to support the economy. But the Fed has generally felt this need when conditions were bad, and bad conditions often meant lower market prices—something that was true in, say, the autumn of 2012 or March of last year. I know this is the type of hard-hitting financial insight you expect from this podcast but buying when prices are low tends to produce superior returns. So what does ‘tapering' mean? Well, one thing we can look at is the last time the Fed started to dial back its purchases. After a strong year for markets and the economy in 2013, the Fed started to ‘taper' its bond purchases in January of 2014. That turned out to be a bad month for markets. But the reasons were important. U.S. data was unusually weak, China's economy was slowing and there were troubles in emerging markets, including Argentina. The market's response, we'd argue, was very normal and fundamentally driven. The best example of this? Even though the Fed was reducing its bond purchases in January, bond prices actually rose, which is what you'd expect when concerns around growth increase. The data ultimately improved, and 2014 turned into a reasonable year for stocks, albeit a shadow of the stellar returns of the year before. But putting it all together, we think 2014 provides an important clue for how markets could respond to tapering: as the Fed becomes less involved in the markets, fundamentals matter more, and become a larger driver of whether markets will sink or swim. Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.

The Real Investment Show Podcast
After the Fed Announcement, What Markets are Doing

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2021 5:29


(11/4/21) The Fed announces the beginning of QE tapering, as expected; what the markets did't expect was Jerome Powell's decidedly dovish stance on interest rates. Markets rallied back up to over-bought conditions--now more than two stadard-deviations bove the 50-DMA. So now we're looking for signs of the inevitable correction process. Retests of the 50- and 20-DMA is not out of the question. Small caps have had two really good days, and Mid-caps have moved up to new highs, as well. But if inflation persists, these are the most vulnerable areas. We're keeping an eye on Moderna, Square, Nvidia, and Uber. - Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/news... -------- Watch the video version of this report by subscribing to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HAJbKgirqFc&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestme... https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinves... #FederalReserve #InterestRates #FedTaper #Markets #S&P500 #MoneyFlows #MACD #SantaClausRally #Moderna #Square #Nvidia #Uber

Vertical Research Advisory
VRA Podcast: Tyler Herriage Daily Investing Podcast - Nov 03, 2021

Vertical Research Advisory

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2021 23:11


Today the Fed announced their plans for tapering their QE, but that didn't stop our markets from once again hitting fresh ATHs. Tune in to today's podcast to see what the markets are telling us today based on the VRA Investing System, and more importantly what we see looking forward for investors. 23 minutes.

Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro
The Interest Rate Fallacy with Dylan Leclair - FED 69

Fed Watch - Bitcoin and Macro

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2021 58:51


In this episode of Bitcoin Magazine's “Fed Watch'' podcast, Christian Keroles and I sat down with Dylan LeClair of Bitcoin Magazine's Deep Dive once again. Dylan is one of the most familiar people with the niche between market technicals and bitcoin fundamentals. It was great to pick his brain over the current Federal Reserve taper and environment in which they are cutting rates. I include as many of the charts we talk about below, but you can also check out the episode on YouTube to see our screen shares. Dylan was nice enough to share the link directly to his slides here, or check below in the LINKS section. If you are in the Kansas City area, come out to Bitcoin Day to meet some bitcoiners, listen to some great talks, and network in the bitcoin space. Check out Bitcoinday.io.   LINKS Bank of Canada ends QE bond buying program, a sign that higher rates are coming https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-decision-1.6226796   Bank of England: Four scenarios for the November meeting https://think.ing.com/articles/bank-of-england-four-scenarios-for-the-november-meeting   Economic growth rate slows to 2% on a sharp slowdown in consumer spending https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/28/us-gross-domestic-product-increases-at-2point0percent-annualized-pace-in-q3-vs-2point8percent-estimate.html   Predictit.org for Fed Chairman https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7398/Whom-will-the-Senate-next-confirm-as-Chair-of-the-Federal-Reserve   Dylan's Slides https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1zsFh4dn3_RgCa2rvH7gE82nPiM_Z48NT2sjfcpqK4FM/edit?usp=sharing --------------------------------------------- Bitcoin Magazine is back in print! Get Bitcoin Magazine shipped directly to your front door! Get 21% off with promo code: MAG21 https://store.bitcoinmagazine.com/discount/MAG21?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fbitcoin-magazine-annual-subscription   "The Deep Dive" delivers the latest Bitcoin on-chain market intelligence directly to your inbox! Get 1 Month free with promo code: PODCAST https://deepdivebtc.substack.com/01e06e79   Bitcoin 2022 will be the biggest Bitcoin conference ever! Miami, FL from April 6–9, 2022 Get 15% off tickets with promo code: MAG21 https://b.tc/conference/

ResumoCast | Segunda Temporada
ESTALO | 6 Estilos de liderança

ResumoCast | Segunda Temporada

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2021 5:50


O que é mais importante para a liderança que obtém resultados: QI [quociente de inteligência] ou QE [quociente emocional]? O paradoxo é que ambos importam, mas de formas bem diferentes. Não há dúvida de que o QI é a melhor forma de encaminhar as pessoas para as carreiras que lhes são mais adequadas: é preciso um QI com um desvio padrão (um QI de 115) para lidar com a complexidade cognitiva de profissões como medicina, direito ou contabilidade, ou para ser um executivo de alto nível. No entanto, uma vez que as pessoas estejam nesses papéis, a capacidade do QI como previsor do sucesso decai gradualmente. Existe um “efeito piso” para o QI — todos nesses papéis foram selecionados por conta do QI alto, mas na hora de prever quem dentre essas pessoas extremamente inteligentes irá emergir como a mais produtiva, o melhor membro de equipe ou um líder destacado, a inteligência emocional passa a ter mais importância. Nos ajude a empoderar a humanidade com o conhecimento dos livros? Compre essa e outras obras na loja do ResumoCast lá na Amazon www.resumocast.com.br/amazon Sabia que você pode entrar no Clube do Livro do ResumoCast e debater esse e outros grandes livros junto em um grupo de leitores empreendedores? Saiba mais em www.resumocast.com.br/apoiase Entre para o Clube do Livro: https://www.resumocast.com.br/apoiase

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast
November FOMC Preview: It‘s Taper Time!: The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

The MUFG Global Markets Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 3, 2021 14:25


In today's episode, MUFG Head of U.S. Macro Strategy George Goncalves takes us back and compares Taper 1.0 and how Taper 2.0 will differ slightly given the urgency to wrap up QE before the Fed begins to contemplate raising rates in 2022 and beyond. George gives us a glimpse into his latest thoughts covered in his FOMC preview and discusses the interest rate outlook into and out of the Fed meeting. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)

ResumoCast | Segunda Temporada
T3#078 Liderança | Daniel Goleman

ResumoCast | Segunda Temporada

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2021 32:17


O que é mais importante para a liderança que obtém resultados: QI [quociente de inteligência] ou QE [quociente emocional]? O paradoxo é que ambos importam, mas de formas bem diferentes. Não há dúvida de que o QI é a melhor forma de encaminhar as pessoas para as carreiras que lhes são mais adequadas: é preciso um QI com um desvio padrão (um QI de 115) para lidar com a complexidade cognitiva de profissões como medicina, direito ou contabilidade, ou para ser um executivo de alto nível. No entanto, uma vez que as pessoas estejam nesses papéis, a capacidade do QI como previsor do sucesso decai gradualmente. Existe um “efeito piso” para o QI — todos nesses papéis foram selecionados por conta do QI alto, mas na hora de prever quem dentre essas pessoas extremamente inteligentes irá emergir como a mais produtiva, o melhor membro de equipe ou um líder destacado, a inteligência emocional passa a ter mais importância. Nos ajude a empoderar a humanidade com o conhecimento dos livros? Compre essa e outras obras na loja do ResumoCast lá na Amazon www.resumocast.com.br/amazon Sabia que você pode entrar no Clube do Livro do ResumoCast e debater esse e outros grandes livros junto em um grupo de leitores empreendedores? Saiba mais em www.resumocast.com.br/apoiase Entre para o Clube do Livro: https://www.resumocast.com.br/apoiase

Finance & Fury Podcast
Is the property party coming to an end?

Finance & Fury Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 1, 2021 25:17


Welcome to Finance and Fury – In this episode, we will be looking at the future of property prices based around recent changes in lending assessment, bond yields and what this means for interest rates It comes as no surprise when I say that property prices have gone up a lot over the past 2 years – well above forecasts – at the same time, and in a causal manner, interest rates and bond yields have declined to record lows – but is the party coming to an end sooner than expected? As there are some emergences in the bond markets which may spell an interest rate increase ahead of schedule – putting downwards pressure on property prices - There is a bit to unpack here – do so in three parts – we will go through the current state of the property market – then what happened last week in the bond market in Australia – then what this means for central bank policy on interest rates   To start with - Looking at housing prices – Almost in lockstep – prices have increased at rapid rates across the world, reaching new heights in many cities – But rural and urban markets have shared in the spoils - which is noteworthy for two reasons First – lockdowns and movement restrictions have given rise for remote working – which has actually weakened the case for urban housing – but yet prices in urban areas continued to rise Second - housing affordability in cities was already heavily strained even before the latest irrational exuberance in property took hold - yet the lack of affordability of homeownership for large parts of the population has evidently not been an obstacle to price increases Why is this the case? Record low financing costs have increased borrowing capacity for property buyers – Plus – there is an entrenched expectation that most people hold when it comes to property in Australia – that is of long-term value gains which has made owning a home so appealing that the price level doesn't seem to matter – FOMO – it can be hard to wait to buy, if you think that in doing so the prices will be 10% higher next year, as this is what you are used to seeing These higher prices have led to higher household leverage levels - as the current acceleration in mortgage volumes clearly demonstrates – Data from CBA shows that across the country, the new average mortgage across the whole of Aus (higher in Syd and Melb, lower in NT) stands at $580,900 – which is up by around 16%, or $80,000 over the past 12 months – is it any wonder why prices have gone up by so much? This has exacerbated worsening affordability, unsustainable mortgage lending practices, and a rising divergence between prices, household incomes and rents – all of which have historically served as forerunners of a housing crises But as long as financing costs trend toward zero, property prices, incomes, and rents can continue to decouple from the real ability of borrowers to cover these debts These have been trends just not seen in Australia, but worldwide - As a result, the growth of outstanding mortgages has accelerated almost everywhere in the last 12 to 18 months, and debt-to-income ratios have risen—most markedly in Canada, Hong Kong, and Australia Due to this - pressure is mounting on governments and central banks to take action – even before lockdowns - Lending standards were being relaxed due to ever declining interest rates over the past decade – Overall, housing markets have become even more dependent on very low interest rates, meaning a tightening of lending standards could bring price appreciation to an abrupt halt in most markets New entrants into the property market have to borrow increasingly large amounts of money to keep up with higher prices – or even people wishing to upsize to a new property - As a result, the growth of outstanding mortgages has been growing due to the relaxed lending standards and falling mortgage rates. Therefore - ever-higher property prices and leverage levels imply ever-higher risks due to the property market being under the spell of a dangerous narrative – that the party will keep going The main barriers for borrowing that most households face is now based around creditworthiness – i.e. how much people can borrow – so once that obstacle is cleared, coupled with the expectation of ever-growing house prices – this has exacerbated the FOMO making homeownership look attractive regardless of price levels and leverage that it costs This rationale may keep markets running for the time being – whilst interest rates are low - But it's not sustainable in the long run. Households have to borrow increasingly large amounts of money to keep up with higher prices – resulting in higher levels of principal repayment each month – on top of the risk that interest rates rise Does all of this mean we are in a bubble? – looking at a paper released by UBS on the Global Real Estate Bubble Index - Price bubbles are a recurring phenomenon in property markets across the world – but the term bubble is a little tricky The term “bubble” refers to a substantial and sustained mispricing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts – this is because all because the price of something increases massively, to almost unsustainable levels – it doesn't mean that it is a bubble – because ironically it is only a bubble if it pops – if rates stay near zero, or even go negative and stay there, property prices can continue to climb But historical data reveals a pattern that exists with a bubble in the property market – the most typical sign is that of a decoupling of prices from local incomes and rents, as well as occurring at the same time as imbalances in the real economy, such as excessive lending and construction activity But again – even prices in Sydney are not considered to be in a bubble unless there is a turnaround in interest rates – otherwise the decade-long upward trend of house prices is likely to continue, given ongoing population growth But there are some risks to the property market now emerging – coming from APRA and the RBA Over the past month - APRA has started trying to reduce lending risks – directing banks to tighten up their assessment Price growth has clearly outpaced local incomes, stretching affordability and thereby increasing dependence on easy financing conditions even further. The growth of outstanding mortgages is accelerating again, as households are taking advantage of historically low interest rates – even people who own property are refinancing to make renovations on their existing property – Therefore - A tightening of lending rules would likely result in a setback for prices. It is now recommended by APRA that banks increase their 'buffer' from 2.5% to 3.0% on top of their loan serviceability rate This is the assessment that banks take when you apply for a loan – they look at what you could afford based around this serviceability rate, not the current interest rates However - Only two years ago, APRA's loan serviceability floor was set at 7.25% - this was more or less a hard fix – but at interest rates dropped, pressure built to change the rules which took force in 2019 - Today - On a 1.99% home loan, a borrower would be assessed on their ability to repay the mortgage at an interest rate of 4.99% - the interest rate plus the new APRA buffer of 3.0%  In reality - serviceability rates are also often calculated on standard variable rates, which are higher than discounted rates that most banks offer – but it is still lower than 7.25%   This change is expected to reduce the borrowing power of property buyers by around 5% Therefore, using some simple maths – each 0.5% of serviceability rate equates to 5% of borrowing capacity – As an example, someone who could borrow $1 million under the old buffer could now only borrow about $950,000 – but now compare this to the rules prior to 2019 – if the serviceability rate was 7.25% compared to say a standard variable rate of 5.5% (2.5% standard rate plus 3%) – this is 17.5% more that people could still borrow, even after the tightening of the lending rules While the banking system is well capitalised due to their ability to bail in with equity or capital notes - increases in the share of heavily indebted borrowers, and leverage in the household sector more broadly, mean that medium-term risks to financial stability are building The expectation is that housing credit growth will run ahead of household income growth in the period ahead – this means that more tightening could come to help curb the level of leverage – where the buffer rates increases to 3.5% and beyond What is interesting, is that these moves from APRA came after a recent RBA's post meeting statement flagged the importance of loan serviceability buffers – Which brings us nicely to the new development with the RBA -   Looking at The RBA - have said they will keep interest rates on hold until 2024 – giving forward guidance to the market, that rates will be on hold until at least until this time – to achieve this in practical terms through monetary policy, the RBA has been helping the bond markets through market operations, purchasing bonds of the secondary market to keep yields at their current target rate for 3 years at 0.1% - by any other name this is called QE But going back to Thursday last week – Or on the 28th of October depending on when you are listening - The RBA made no offer to buy the next trance of government bonds – they declined to buy the April 2024 line of bonds as part of their regular market operation, even though the yields of these bonds were already above their target of 0.1%, sitting at 0.16% - This created a shock to the market – Central banks had given clear guidance that they would do whatever it took to keep the yields of these bonds in line with the cash rate – but all of a sudden, they reneged on their agreement with not a peep As expected - the market responded poorly – by dumping these bonds, resulting in the price dropping and pushing the yield up further to 0.30% - The market waited to see if this was just a blunder – or if they were waiting until Friday – Friday came and no purchase were made – so more of these bonds were sold off and the yields spiked even higher to 0.67% Remember that a yield is the % return based around the price of the bond The fact that the RBA out of the blue decided to not purchase these bonds, which are a core part of their stimulus programme – started stoking market speculation that there is going to be an early hike in interest rates than previously thought This failure to deliver on what the RBA has promise has fuelled markets expectations that rates will have to rise much earlier than 2024 – based around the current pricing – it appears that the consensus is that there will be a 50 basis points of tightening by mid next year, and 100 basis points by year end – so interest rates will be around 1% by the end of 2022 – rather than being 0.1% Offshore events added to the drama and probability that this may occur - with the Bank of Canada stunning markets on Wednesday by ending its bond buying altogether and flagging a hike as soon as April 2022. We also had many Central banks, including is New Zealand raising the reserve cash rate by 0.25% The RBA is now under intense pressure to do something at its monthly policy meeting at the start of next month – where they will either defend its yield curve target, soften it, or drop it altogether. The RBA currently aims to buy A$4 billion a week in bonds as part of QE programme – This was always going to be reconsidered in February 2022 – But this recent unexpected withdrawal from purchasing bonds could signal the end to this plan sooner rather than later This action signals that the first-rate hike back to 0.25% could occur sooner than later, compared to 2024 – followed by four more moves to 1.25% by the third quarter of 2024 Overall – if any increases in interest rates occur, then it can be expected that these will be shallow and gradual based around a tightening cycle – it is unlikely that the RBA will increase interest rates to 1.25% in one go next year - given the elevated level of household indebtedness But this increase in interest rates ahead of schedule does put a potential downwards pressure on property prices Given that an increase by 0.5% in serviceability rate creates a reduction of 5% in borrowing standards – an increase to 1.25% for the interest rate results in around 12.5% less borrowing capacity – which means that the part may be over for ever increasing property prices – as people can borrow less and the costs to borrow become more stark but on top of this, an increase in servicing costs - If the average mortgage is $580,900 – then an increase of 1.25% results in an additional $7,261.25 p.a. in interest repayments – there are around 10.3m properties in Aus, and around 6m of these have a mortgage attached to them for which this average is based around – doing some rounding, that means that an additional $43.6bn will be spent on interest costs of owning a property This takes funds away from other spending in the economy and puts a downwards pressure on GDP spending Summary – Property in Australia is being spurred by interest rates, no surprise here – due to the increasing amounts that people can borrow, increasing the capital available to big her amounts on property – it is supply and demand If the RBA fails to follow through with their commitments to keep the 2-year bond yields at 0.1%, instead letting this spike to closer to the free market rate of 0.67% due to not purchasing these bonds – This could mean that an interest rate increase is likely to happen sooner rather than later – If increases in rates occur before is anticipated, this will have major impacts on the market – Servicing costs of households will increase From an Asset pricing perspective – prices of property could decline – or at the best reach a stagnant growth until wages and immigration rates catch up The market is currently addicted to almost free money – needs this to continue for price growth to continue, if not the prices of assets would come back in line with the fair value that interest rates represent The current price of property is technically a fair value based around record low interest rates – if interest rates go up, then the fair prices, or market price, would go down for property – if rates go negative, then prices can continue to grow Will the increase of rates and the decline in property be this week – probably not – but can we trust when the RBA has been telling us? No - the forward guidance has been that they won't increase rates until 2024 – either they will do this on the exact day these bonds mature – in April – or there is a chance that this occurs ahead of time – Either way – this is a warning – for those new home buyers – if you are purchasing for the first time – make sure you can afford repayments at a buffer of 1 to 2% interest rate above your current margin If these market predictions come true, it would dampen the potential price growth that property has been going through – so don't be banking of some short-term capital growth from a property purchase – to purchase now and be able to accumulate equity quickly to upscale Based around the rough numbers from CBA – borrowing declines by 5% per 0.5% in interest rates – so prices have the potential to decline – putting pressures in LVRs For existing buyers as well – same thing applies – make sure your cashflow can afford the interest repayments – if anything, this is an opportunity to get ahead of mortgage repayments before the interest rate cycle reverses Thank you for listening to today's episode. If you want to get in contact you can do so here: http://financeandfury.com.au/contact/ https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/insights/2021/global-real-estate-bubble-index.html https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/2-year-note-yield

Trader Merlin
Why Do Bonds SUCK?!

Trader Merlin

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 50:35


Your financial advisor it probably telling you to move money into bonds, its just what they are trained to do. Truth is, bonds SUCK right now! Join bond master, Bill Addiss and I as we look at yields, curves, spreads, the Fed, QE and many other bond related juiciness! Join us live at 2pm PST today. #trading #Investing #Inflation #bonds #yield Contact TraderMerlin: Email – TraderMerlin@gmail.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13930555/ Twitter: TraderMerlin - https://twitter.com/TraderMerlin IG: TraderMerlin - https://www.instagram.com/tradermerlin/ FB: TraderMerlin  - https://www.facebook.com/TraderMerlin Live Daily Show:  - https://www.youtube.com/TraderMerlin   Trading Applications used: TastyWorks, CliK, TradeStation, TradingView

Go(o)d Mornings with CurlyNikki
The Fruits of Practicing Love

Go(o)d Mornings with CurlyNikki

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 27, 2021 9:22


Spoiler: "Continual protection, warmth, and well-being" are the benefits of knowing Love!  The trick is shifting into the awareness of It and STAYING (t)here.  Until even the shifting is witnessed from the Love that you are.  And once you build this momentum, It builds a new life for Itself as you, with service as the foundation."Becoming fully human is effortless once you reach momentum—when you become aware of your Eufeeling (Love) automatically when needed. For instance, when you are first introduced to Eufeeling, even though it has been with you your whole life, it takes a little conscious direction on your part to become aware of it. This will not always be the case. In fact, in a very short time you will be aware of Eufeeling whenever you think of it. It is like putting on a coat on a chilly day. When you first put the coat on, you can feel its weight and warmth. After some time you forget about the coat and go about your business. But the coat is always with you, keeping you warm. Whenever you like, you can have the thought, Am I wearing my coat, and is it keeping me warm? Immediately your awareness effortlessly shifts to your coat and you know it to be there. Then you become aware that the coat is keeping you warm. The coat is like pure awareness, and the warmth is Eufeeling. Once your mind is accustomed to it, which could be almost immediately, it skips becoming aware of the coat and just becomes aware of the warmth—the reason you put the coat on in the first place.Now let's say that you are used to living in the tropics but find yourself stranded in a secluded cabin in the deep north in winter. You come back from a walk and find that the lock to your cabin is frozen, and the key will not turn. This could be dangerous, and you immediately experience a flurry of anxious thoughts about your possible demise. Despite your envious tan, the thought of becoming a human Popsicle is not at all appealing. You become quite agitated and start running around pounding on doors and windows trying to get into the safety and warmth of your cabin. Then you remember that you are not wearing a Tommy Bahama pink-flamingo-patterned shirt but an arctic-proof coat to protect you against the cold. You realize that you are actually quite warm, and your mind begins to calm down. In that calmness you remember that you have a lighter in your coat pocket. You remove the lighter and heat your key and insert it into the lock. The warm key melts the ice and the lock turns, welcoming you into the warmth of your cabin.Okay, I know this is an absurd analogy, but it will help to make my point about momentum. Becoming aware of your coat and the warmth it provided was calming for you. Your mind settled down and was able to think more clearly. Spontaneously you remembered the lighter in your coat pocket, and the solution to your problem was at hand.If you do not do Quantum Entrainment (Awareness aware of Itself) and are not aware of Eufeeling, it is like living in the arctic in a short-sleeved flamingo shirt all the time. Because you are underprepared, you are faced with one problem after another and live mostly in some state of agitation. You are completely at the mercy of the elements and sooner or later will end up looking like a flamingo-flavored Popsicle.When you first start doing QE and becoming aware of Eufeeling, it is like you live in your flamingo shirt but put on your coat when you have a challenge confront you. You forget you have a coat until you have a problem. When you reach momentum, it is like you are always wearing your coat. You reap the benefits of continual protection, warmth, and well-being."Excerpt from Dr. Frank Kinslow's The Kinslow System-- highly recommended!I Love you, Niknikki@curlynikki.com 

The Real Investment Show Podcast
Why the Fed Taper Matters

The Real Investment Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 14, 2021 34:50


The Federal Reserve now sees inflation as the driver for its policies, planning to taper QE by November; Bond Markets are predicting at least two rate hikes in 2022; ESG Investing is a Wall St. money heist; the language of the Fed, and why Fed Grammar Matters; Carbon Net Zero lies. ------ SEG-1: Why Inflation is Driving the Fed SEG-2: What Bonds Are Predicting About Rate Hikes SEG-3: Better Living Thru ESG Investing...not. -------- Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA -------- Articles mentioned in today's show: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/what-causes-transitory-inflation-to-become-persistent https://realinvestmentadvice.com/esg-investing-the-great-wall-street-money-heist/ https://realinvestmentadvice.com/technically-speaking-navigating-market-lingo-in-2021/ -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: Markets Sustain Key Support," https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EuTwzQKMKU&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1&t=14s -------- Our previous show, "Why the Insidious Stagflation Loop is So Dangerous," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNshJbV2aHg&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Register for the next Retirement Right Lane class: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/evrplus_registration/?action=evrplusegister&event_id=4 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #Inflation #FederalReserve #Taper #RateHike #Markets #JeromePowell #FedGrammarMatters #CarbonNetZero

American Conservative University
Macro Strategist David Hunter on the Fed, inflation, and the Coming Bust.

American Conservative University

Play Episode Listen Later Oct 3, 2021 56:59


Macro Strategist David Hunter on the Fed, inflation, and the Coming Bust. Macro Strategist David Hunter on the Fed, inflation, and why he predicts a historic bust is near. https://youtu.be/6ZECbgN6qMM Natalie Brunell In this bonus episode, Natalie Brunell chats one-on-one with David Hunter, a macro economic strategist with more than 40 years on Wall Street. David is the chief strategist at Contrarian Macro Advisors and he is predicting that we are going to see a final "melt up" stage of the market cycle before a historic crash (David believes it will be an 80% decline peak to trough). David correctly predicted in 2020 that oil would go to $55, S&P to 4300+ and the 10 yr to 1.55%. He has since raised many of his targets and actively tweets his analysis of market behavior. Natalie Brunell hears more insight on David's predictions, discusses the Federal Reserve being caught between inflation and a crash sparked by tightening, and explores other topics like wealth inequality, Bitcoin and sound money. Follow David Hunter on Twitter at @DaveHcontrarian. Follow Natalie at @NatBrunell. Timecodes: 00:00 Introduction 00:45 Current state of financial markets 01:55 Why are investors nervous? 03:39 Fed's taper talk 05:49 What is QE, taper, tightening 08:08 Why do people expect a crash? 11:16 Signs bust is here 14:01 Money printing and politics 18:48 Why do we keep creating bubbles? 25:48 Wealth inequality 28:52 “Tax the Rich” 30:49 Gold's underperformance 32:58 Bitcoin as digital gold 34:55 The U.S. Dollar 38:05 Can we avoid a bust? 42:12 Can we return to sound money? 44:47 Ways to invest in the crash 48:30 Timing the crash 52:47 Trying to orange pill David

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Tapering the Taper Talk – Ep 727

The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 28, 2021 54:16


Powell offers no clues on taper timetable. Powell vows to keep interest rates low until QE is finished. Powel blames price increases on exploding demand and lack of supply. Powel blames inflation on the public's expectations. Fed's only goal is to delay the inevitable crisis as long as possible. Invest in gold stocks before they recover ground they never should have lost. Afghanistan proved to the world that the US is no longer a military or economic super power. America's biggest export may soon be our used cars. For a limited time, get 40% off a Calm Premium subscription at https://calm.com/gold INVEST LIKE ME: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff