In deze Hup Bitcoin bespreken we de laatste bitcoin nieuwtjes. Deze aflevering is mede mogelijk gemaakt door de Nederlandse broker Coinmerce.io waar je je bitcoin kunt kopen (of verkopen). De onderwerpen op een rijtje: Coinbase start met diensten voor klanten van BlackRock Binance-dochter verdacht van witwassen 350 miljoen dollar Michael Saylor stopt als CEO van MicroStrategy, maar blijft aan boord in belangrijke functie CEO Binance sprak president van Centraal-Afrikaanse Republiek Cryptobank Voyager gaat $280 miljoen uitkeren aan klanten ECB pompt geld in Italië, Spanje en Griekenland en bezuinigt op Duitsland, Frankrijk en Nederland
De geloofwaardigheid van de ECB verkeert in buitengewoon zwaar weer, zo concludeert Sylvester Eijffinger, emeritus hoogleraar financiële economie aan Tilburg University. Eijffinger, die tevens vijftien jaar lid was van het Monetair Expert Panel - een orgaan dat een adviserende rol voor de ECB heeft - denkt dat de ECB het afgelopen half jaar serieuze beleidsfouten heeft gemaakt.
De geloofwaardigheid van de ECB verkeert in buitengewoon zwaar weer, zo concludeert Sylvester Eijffinger, emeritus hoogleraar financiële economie aan Tilburg University. Eijffinger, die tevens vijftien jaar lid was van het Monetair Expert Panel - een orgaan dat een adviserende rol voor de ECB heeft - denkt dat de ECB het afgelopen half jaar serieuze beleidsfouten heeft gemaakt. 'Laat ik beginnen met de enorme overliquiditeit, die niet alleen onder Draghi ingezet is, maar onder de nieuwe, huidige president Lagarde voortgezet is', zo stelt hij. 'Denk aan het PEPP-programma, vanwege de coronapandemie.' Volgens Eijffinger had Lagarde de - door Draghi opengezette - geldkraan dicht moeten draaien. 'En bovendien had de Europese Commissie vanwege corona het EU Recovery Fund ingesteld. Dus er was eigenlijk geen reden voor de ECB om het opkoopbeleid in deze mate en met dit tempo door te zetten. Dat heeft Lagarde wél gedaan, en daarmee heeft ze niet alleen de overliquditeit van Draghi voortgezet, maar zelfs verder opgehoogd. Op een zeker moment stond er acht triljoen securities op de balans van de ECB, da's heel veel. Dan kun je zeggen dat het niet allemaal van het opkoopprogramma is, want dat omvat ook andere securities, maar het is wel allemaal basisgeld. Met andere woorden: dat creëert een overliquiditeit, en toen kwam de Oekraïne-oorlog. Én een energiecrisis, én een klimaatcrisis, en daardoor krijg je een soort kantelpunt waarbij alle overliquiditeit zich manifesteert in hoge inflatie.'See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The current market pricing can tell investors a lot about what the market believes is coming next, but the future is uncertain and investors may not always agree with market expectations. Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets explains.--- Transcript ---Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about trends across the global investment landscape and how we put those ideas together. It's Friday, August 5th, at 2 p.m. in London.Trying to predict where financial markets will go is difficult. The future, as they say, is uncertain, and even the most talented investors and forecasters will frequently struggle to get these predictions right.A different form of this question, however, might be easier. What do markets assume will happen? After all, these assumptions are the result of thousands of different actors, most of which are trying very hard to make accurate predictions about future market prices because a lot of money is on the line. Not only is there a lot of information in those assumptions, but understanding them are table stakes for a lot of investment strategy. After all, if our view only matches what is already expected by the market to happen, it is simply much less meaningful.Let's start with central banks, where current market pricing can tell us quite a bit. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by another 100 basis points between now and February to about three and a half percent. And then from there, the Fed is expected to reverse course, reducing rates by about half a percent by the end of 2023. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates steadily from a current level of 0 to 1.1% over the next 12 months.Morgan Stanley's economists see it differently in both regions. In the U.S., we think the Fed will take rates a little higher than markets expect by year end and then leave them higher for longer than markets currently imply. In the U.S., we think the Fed will take rates higher than markets expect by year end and then leave them higher for longer than is currently implied. In Europe, it's the opposite. We think the ECB will raise rates more slowly than markets imply. The idea that the Fed may do more than expected while the ECB does less is one reason we forecast the US dollar to strengthen further against the euro.A rich set of future expectations also exists in the commodity market. For example, markets expect oil prices to be about 10% lower in 12 months time. Gasoline is priced to be about 15% lower between now and the end of the year. The price of gold, in contrast, is expected to be about 3% more expensive over the next 12 months.I'd stress that these predictions are not some sort of cheat code for the market. The fact that oil is priced to decline 10% doesn't mean that you can make 10% today by selling oil. Rather, it means that foreign investor, a 10% decline in oil, or a 3% rise in gold will simply mean you break even over the next 12 months.Again, all of this pricing informs our views. We forecast oil to decline less and gold to decline more than market prices imply. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley equity analysts can work backwards looking at what these commodity expectations would mean for the companies that produce them. We won't get into that here, but it's yet another way that we can take advantage of information the market is already giving us.Thanks for listening. Subscribe to Thoughts on the Market on Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen, and leave us a review. We'd love to hear from you.
Het opkoopprogramma van de Europese Centrale Bank om renteverschillen te verkleinen heeft gewerkt, zo concludeert econoom en columniste bij de Volkskrant Heleen Mees. 'De ECB heeft het Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) stopgezet, maar er is afgesproken om de opbrengsten van aflossingen op staatsobligaties die op de balans van de ECB staan, te investeren in de staatsobligaties van landen die het nodig hebben. Landen waar fragmentatie dreigt te ontstaan. Dat gaat dan heel specifiek over Italië, Spanje, Portugal, Griekenland, maar ook om Finland. En de ECB heeft in juni en juli voor bijna 15 miljard euro aan Duitse staatsobligaties afgelost en er is voor bijna 4 miljard euro aan Nederlandse staatsobligaties afgelost. Dat geld heeft de ECB gebruikt om nieuwe staatsobligaties te kopen van Italië, Spanje, Griekenland en Finland.' Allemaal om de renteverschillen te verkleinen, en dat is een belangrijk iets volgens Mees. 'In half juni was er een spoedvergadering van de ECB omdat het renteverschil tussen Duitse staatsobligaties met een looptijd van tien jaar en Italiaanse staatsobligaties met een looptijd van tien jaar tot 2,5 procent was opgelopen. Genoeg reden voor de ECB om samen te komen, en op dat moment hebben ze ook gezegd dat ze een nieuw mechanisme gaan ontwikkelen. Op diezelfde dag besloten ze ook dat alle opbrengsten van obligatieaflossingen geïnvesteerd zouden worden in die van de landen in de periferie.' Mees concludeert: 'Dat heeft enorm goed gewerkt. Toentertijd hadden we te maken met 2,5 procent spreiding, en dat verschil in inmiddels teruggebracht naar 2 procent.'See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
European bourses are firmer across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, with the general tone constructive though the FTSE 100 lags pre-BoE amid GBP strength.US futures have lifted from initial rangebound action, ES +0.3%, with specific newsflow limited pre-data/Fed speak.DXY subdued with peers generally bid though CAD is pressured amid crude consolidation while JPY is the G10 laggard thus far.Core consolidation after recent rampant upward move, knife-edge BoE looms; Bund Sep'22 towards mid-point of a +100 tick range.Currently, benchmarks are firmer by circa. USD 1.00bbl and towards the top-end of relatively/comparably narrow ranges; JCPOA in focusLooking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, International Trade & Canadian Trade Balance, BoE Policy Announcement. Speeches from ECB's Elderson & Fed's Mester. Earnings from Alibaba, Conoco-Phillips, Amgen.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Get Opto's best content every day, by subscribing to our FREE Newsletter: www.cmcmarkets.com/en/opto/newsletterToday I welcome back Diego Parrilla, Managing Partner and Investment Manager at Quadriga Asset Managers. With 20 years' experience in macro investing, commodities, and trading in London, Singapore, and New York, Diego has managed teams in world-renowned investment banks, including JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch.Diego is a best-selling author too, publishing ‘The Energy World is Flat' in 2015, and ‘The Anti-Bubbles' in 2017.We discuss the Fed's latest rate hike and whether a soft landing for the US economy is now out of reach. We also dig into European developments, analyzing the recent ECB announcement and whether their new bond-buying programme will have the desired effect. Finally, we discuss Chinese divergence, highlighting the property sector's colossal debt, before examining Hong Kong's liquidity crisis. Enjoy!Subscribe to Diego's newsletter, here: https://www.getrevue.co/profile/parrilladiegoThanks to Cofruition for consulting on and producing the podcast. Want further Opto insights? Check out our daily newsletter: https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/opto/newsletter------------------Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment, or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.CMC Markets does not endorse or offer opinions on the trading strategies used by the author. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.
APAC stocks were firmer as the positive momentum rolled over from global peers (S&P 500 +1.56%, NDX +2.73%)European equity futures are indicative of a higher open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed up 1.3% yesterday.FX markets are relatively contained with the DXY marginally softer, antipodeans outpace peers, GBP steady ahead of BoE. Looking ahead, highlights include EZ & UK Construction PMI, US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, International Trade & Canadian Trade Balance, BoE Policy Announcement, Speeches from ECB's Elderson & Fed's Mester, Supply from Spain & France.Earnings from Cigna, Alibaba, Conoco-Phillips, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Glencore, Rolls-Royce, Adidas, Credit Agricole, Bayer, Lufthansa & Telecom Italia.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
Centralbanker hæver renterne betydeligt for at dæmme op for alt for høj inflation, som formentlig stiger yderligere i de næste par måneder. Recessionsfrygt har dog presset renter markant lavere siden midten af juni. Vi har justeret prognoserne for ECB og Nationalbanken, mens Fed-prognosen er uændret. Renter ventes at stige mere end priset i år, hvor rentekurver flader yderligere. Recessionsfrygt presser renter markant lavere Fed-prognosen uændret: Renteforhøjelser fortsætter Nedjustering af prognoserne for ECB og Nationalbanken Markante rentefald på danske realkreditobligationer
Solana wallets are facing an on-going exploit with over $5,000,000 stolen so far. Michael Saylor steps down as MicroStrategy CEO to focus more on Bitcoin. Even if Ethereum flawlessly executes its upcoming software upgrade, the protocol will still need to address its nagging problem with transaction fees. CBDCs, not stablecoins, are the best hope for cheaper and more efficient cross-border payments, a study by the ECB.--
Wéér 0,75% erbij en daarmee komt de beleidsrente van de Federal Reserve op 2,25 tot 2,5 procent. Het is al de vierde renteverhoging in een paar maanden tijd met als doel natuurlijk om de inflatie de kop in drukken. Maar dat is in de VS. Bij ons staat de ECB natuurlijk aan het renteroer, dat vorige week dan wel de eerste renteverhoging sinds 11 jaar aankondigde maar is dat wel genoeg? Moet Frankfurt niet iets actiever handelen? Hoe kunnen we die inflatie tackelen, zonder onze economie lam te leggen? Ons breekijzer: "Laat de rente ook hier maar flink oplopen om de economie te redden" Verder praten we over het belletje van president Biden naar president Xi, want alsof er nog niet spanningen zijn, lopen ook de gemoederen tussen de VS en China weer op. Biden en Xi praten vandaag over Taiwan… want daar wil Nancy Pelosi heel graag heen. En ook praten we over wonen op de maan! Volgens de NASA is het een kwestie van een truitje aan en gaan! In ons panel: Vréneli Stadelmaier, directeur SheConsult en auteur communicatieadviseur Carline van Breugel Ons Breekijzerexpert: Jasper Lukkezen, macro-econoom en hoofdredacteur van vakblad ESB See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Fabio Iannò explains why European banks will benefit from the ECB's recent increase in key interest rates, and Felipe Carvallo discusses how the sale of certain Citibanamex business operations will alter Mexico's banking sector. Guests: Felipe Carvallo, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service, and Fabio Iannò, Vice President – Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors ServiceHosts: Danielle Reed, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service and Myles Neligan, Vice President – Senior Research Writer, Moody's Investors Service
· More data pointing to a worsening economy. · ECB hikes rates for first time in 11 years. · Dollar looks to have topped out. · Gold looks to have bottomed. · Tech companies hurting as advertisers flee. Get an extra 3 months. https://expressvpn.com/gold Join my Locals community to get The Peter Schiff Show ad-free and a day early! Plus get access to special live reports and Q&As. Visit https://peterschiff.locals.com/ to become a member. Invest like me: https://schiffradio.com/invest RATE AND REVIEW on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/PeterSchiff/reviews/ SIGN UP FOR MY FREE NEWSLETTER: https://www.europac.com/ Schiff Gold News: http://www.SchiffGold.com/news Buy my newest book at http://www.tinyurl.com/RealCrash Follow me on Facebook: http://www.Facebook.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Twitter: http://www.Twitter.com/PeterSchiff Follow me on Instagram: https://Instagram.com/PeterSchiff
Stalo sa tak po prvýkrát za 11 rokov a ďalšie navýšenie bude nasledovať čoskoro. Rada guvernérov ECB tým sleduje zníženie extrémne vysokej inflácie. Bude to však za cenu recesie? Vypočujte si reportáž SBS NEWS
What are interest rates? How do they work? And what do higher rates mean for people, the economy and inflation? Our host, Katie Ranger, puts these questions to expert Gabriel Glöckler on The ECB Podcast. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Published on 23 July 2022 and recorded on 13 July 2022 and 22 July 2022. In this episode: 01:50 – The basics: what are interest rates? What interest rates are and why we need them to compensate for different risks. 06:34 – How do interest rates work? The role interest rates play in determining the everyday choices we make with our money and how the ECB's decisions affect market interest rates. 13:20 – Are rates the same across the whole euro area? Why it's important that our monetary policy decisions reach all parts of the euro area in a reasonably even manner. 17:40 – How do higher rates affect people, the economy and inflation? The concrete impact of higher rates on people's daily lives and on economic activity, and how raising rates can help bring down inflation. 20:20 – Raising rates in times of war and at the tail end of a pandemic. The challenges the current environment poses for interest rates and the role higher rates play in shaping people's inflation expectations. The importance of signalling our commitment to normalising our monetary policy. 25:31 – Our guest's hot tip Additional material: Press release: monetary policy decisions, 21 July 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.mp220721~53e5bdd317.en.html Our monetary policy statement at a glance, 21 July 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/visual-mps/2022/html/mopo_statement_explained_july.en.html Explainer: We have raised interest rates. What does that mean for you? https://www.ecb.europa.eu/ecb/educational/explainers/tell-me-more/html/interest_rates.en.html The ECB Podcast: President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions, 21 July 2022 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod220721_episode37.en.html The ECB Podcast: What is behind current inflation spikes?, 6 October 2021 https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/tvservices/podcast/html/ecb.pod210925_episode22.en.html European Central Bank https://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html You can also listen to The ECB Podcast on SoundCloud, Spotify, Deezer, Stitcher, YouTube, Amazon Music and many more: pod.link/ecbpodcast
This week the European Central Bank surprised economists and investors alike with a higher than anticipated rate hike, so why this hike and what comes next? Chief Cross-Asset Strategist Andrew Sheets and Chief European Economist Jens Eisenschmidt discuss.-----Transcript-----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Morgan Stanley's Chief Europe Economist. Andrew Sheets: And on this special episode of Thoughts on the market will be discussing the recent ECB rate hike and the path ahead. It's Friday, July 22nd at 4 p.m. in London. Andrew Sheets: So, Jens, I want to talk to you about the ECB's big rate decision yesterday. But before we do that, I think we should start by laying the scene of the European economy. In a nutshell, how is Europe's economy doing and what do you think are the most salient points for investors to be aware of? Jens Eisenschmidt: Great question, Andrew. We have revised downwards our growth outlook for the euro area economy on the back of the reduced gas flow coming out from Russia into Germany starting at some point in mid-June. And we are now seeing a mild recession for the euro area economy setting in towards the end of this year and the beginning of next. This is in stark contrast to what the ECB, as early as June, has been saying the euro area economy would look like. I think incoming data, since our call for a bit more muted economic outlook, has been on the negative side. So for instance, we just today had the PMIs in contractionary territory. So the PMIs are the Purchasing Managers Indexes, which are soft indicators of economic activity. Soft because are survey evidence they're essentially questions ask industry participants about what they see on their side, and out of these questions an index is derived for economic activity. So all in all, the outlook is relatively muted, as I said, and I think a recession is clearly in the cards. Andrew Sheets: But Jens, why is growth in Europe so weak? When you think about things like that big decline in PMI that we just saw this week, what's driving that? What do you think is the key thing that maybe other forecasters might be missing in terms of driving this weakness? Jens Eisenschmidt: I mean, Europe is very, very close to one of the largest, geopolitical conflicts of our time. We have, as a consequence of that, to deal with very high energy prices. The dependance on Russian gas, for instance, is very high in several parts of Western Europe. But you're right, we have still accommodative monetary policy, so, all in all, we still have positive and negative factors, but we think that the negative factors are starting now to have the bigger weight in all this. And we have seen for the first time, as you just mentioned to PMI's in contractionary territory, while we are of course having a bit in the service sector, a different picture which is still driven from reopening dynamics coming out from COVID. So everybody wants to have a holiday after they didn't have one last year and the year before. Andrew Sheets: So I guess speaking of holidays, it involves a lot of driving, a lot of flying. I think that's a good segway into the energy story in Europe. This has been a really challenging dynamic because you've had obviously the risk of energy being cut off into Europe. When you think about modeling scenarios of less energy being available via Russia, how do you go about modeling that and what could the impact be? Jens Eisenschmidt: No, that's really the hard part here. Because, ultimately, if the energy is flowing and continues to flow, you can rely on data that goes back and that gives you some relationship between the price and then what the impact on economic activity on that price schedule will be. But if energy is falling to levels where governments have to decide duration, then the modeling becomes so much harder because you have to decide then in your model who gets gas or oil and at what price. That makes it very hard and it also explains why there's a huge range of model outcomes out there showing GDP impact for some economies as deep, in terms of contraction, of 10 to 15%. We are not in that camp. We think that even in a situation of a total cut off of, say, Russian gas, the euro area economy would contract, but not as deeply. Part of that is that we think that some time has elapsed since the threat has first become a possibility and the system has adjusted to some extent. And then what you get is a system that's a little bit more resilient now to a cut than it may have been in March. Andrew Sheets: Jens. I think that's also a good connection to the inflation story. So on one hand, inflation dynamics in Europe look quite similar to the U.S. On the other hand those inflation dynamics seem somewhat different from the U.S., core inflation is not as high, wage inflation is not as high. Could you kind of walk us through a bit of how you see that inflation story in Europe and how it's similar or different to what we see going on in the U.S.? Jens Eisenschmidt: There is clearly a difference here, and I think the ECB has never been tiring in stressing that difference that most of the inflation here in Europe is driven by external factors. And here, of course, energy is the big elephant in the room. It's not helped by the fact that we had a depreciation of the Euro against the U.S. dollar and most of the energy is, as we know, a built in U.S. dollar. We also have a significant food inflation, and of course, it's also linked very, very tightly to the conflict in Ukraine, where we have Ukraine as a big food exporter. Just think of oil, think of wheat, all these things that are in the headlines. So that's structurally different from a situation in the U.S. where you do have a significant part of the inflation being internal demand driven. And of course that leads to interconnection with a very tight labor market to a higher core inflation. Now core inflation in the euro area has also been picking up and it's certainly not at levels where the European Central Bank can be happy with. But, you know, all in all, both our set of assumptions and forecasts as well as the ECB's in the end boil down to a slight overshoot in the medium term of their inflation target. Andrew Sheets: So Jens, all of this brings us back to the main event, so to speak. The European Central Bank raised interest rates yesterday for the first time since 2011, and it was a pretty large increase. It was a half a percentage point increase. So what's driving the ECB thinking here and how is it trying to weigh all these different factors, in a world where rates are rising? Jens Eisenschmidt: So indeed, the ECB yesterday ended its negative rates policy, which was designed for a completely different environment, an environment of a persistent undershoot of its inflation target. By all available measures, they are now at target or above. So that in itself justifies ending this policy, and this is what they did yesterday. Now, of course, there is a concern that the high inflation that we see today is feeding into wage negotiations, is feeding into a process of more structurally higher inflation, and that risks the anchoring inflation expectations. So there is a need, even if you see the economy going weaker, there is a need to tighten its monetary policy. At the same time, they have this geopolitical conflict just very near to them. They have the risk to growth that we were talking about before. So that also means you cannot just now go out and line out a significant path of rate increases. So that leads to the second component of their decision yesterday. So they were say we will go meeting by meeting and we will be data dependent in our move. Andrew Sheets: So Jens, let's bring this back to markets. When you look at what markets are currently expecting from the ECB in terms of rate hikes out over the next, say, 18 months, do you think the ECB is likely to deliver more tightening than those rates imply or deliver rates that are lower than those current market expectations? Jens Eisenschmidt: So if you just talk about where markets see the ECB peaking, that's at 1.5%. We agree, just that we don't agree on the timing. So we, for instance, see the ECB going 50 basis points in September, but then slowing down to 25 in October and another 25 in December. And then we really see the ECB pausing until September next year. And the pause is introduced because the economy is weakening and significantly so, and we see this centered around the end of the year. Now in the markets, there is a bit of an assumption that the ECB will be more aggressive in terms of getting to the 1.5% earlier. Not necessarily still this year, but at some point early next year. Andrew Sheets: And just from the perspective of markets, you know, this is a reason why Morgan Stanley's foreign exchange team thinks that the euro will continue to weaken against the dollar. It's both a function of Jens your weak growth forecasts, but also potentially this idea that rates won't rise in Europe quite as fast as the market is expecting. Which would mean somewhat less support for the currency. Andrew Sheets: Jens, thanks for taking the time to talk. Jens Eisenschmidt: Thanks a lot, Andrew. It was a pleasure being with you. Andrew Sheets: As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us on the Apple Podcasts app. It helps more people find the show.
The European Central Bank announced an expectations-beating half-point interest-rate hike today, at the same time introducing a “tool” to ensure borrowing costs in vulnerable economies don't spiral out of control, as central banks continue to fight inflation. Weston Nakamura drops in at the top of today's Daily Briefing for an update on the Bank of Japan's divergence from its peers, coining the phrase “yield spread control” to highlight a critical split at the heart of the global financial system. And former IMF economist and Wall Street strategist David Woo, now writing at DavidWooUnbound.com, joins Maggie Lake to talk about the ECB, softening U.S. economic data ahead of next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, and the implications of a crumbling Chinese credit market. Are we fated for a stagflationary future? David and Maggie address that question and many more as the countdown to Fed Week continues. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
The ECB raises rates by 50 BPS. Larry Shover discuses this as the ECB had kept rates negative since 2014. He also goes over movement in the Euro (/6E) as it hit parity with the U.S. dollar (/DX) recently, as well as movement in the Japanese Yen (/6J). Tune in to find out more.
In today's edition of Through The Noise, Manpreet speaks to Fook Hien about whether the current rebound is sustainable amid the ongoing Q2 earnings season, what the market implications are of the ECB's exit from negative policy rates and what to expect from the Fed next week.Speakers:Manpreet Gill, Head of Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Strategy, Standard Chartered BankFook Hien Yap, Senior Investment Strategist, Standard Chartered BankFor more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go.
European bourses are resilient despite Flash PMIs for June contracting, while US futures are subdued but rangeboundDXY climbs amid EUR pressure post-PMIs, with the USD weighing on peers in turn though JPY & CHF benefit from yield actionCore debt extends on post-ECB recovery rallies amidst this and curves steepen amid a paring of tightening expectationsCrude benchmarks surrender APAC upside on contraction concerns and remain focused on Nord Stream developmentsLooking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs, CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, VerizonRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk
The RenMac team discusses Jeff's desire for more tattoos, Biden's climate emergency non-declaration, the political impact of Biden getting COVID, how the European blowback is starting to impact the U.S., why markets might be wrong about the Fed's reaction function, the market rally this past week, why we continue to prefer defensives over cyclicals, and why the ECB is more likely to make a policy mistake than the Fed.
The ECB joins the rate rise club, with a 50 basis point hike – which was bigger than expected by the markets. They expect inflation to hang around, and they expect further normalization ahead. So this marks the end of the negative interest rate experiment, other than in Japan, Denmark and Sweden. Banks will see … Continue reading "The ECB Joins The Mega Rate Hike Club! [Podcast]"
In this episode of our Week Ahead series, we'll be looking at the main themes that will drive global markets over the coming week. In the US we have the Fed meeting - will they hike 100bps? US PCE, Q2 GDP, Chicago PMI and consumer confidence. In Europe we have flash CPI, IFO and consumer confidence. Italian political dramas, droughts and markets reacting to the ECB. Then it's Australia CPI and Tokyo CPI, the events in Asia and the current state of Global markets all to discuss.
We have an exciting Special Edition episode to wrap up the week! We had the pleasure today of hosting Darren Peers, Equity Investment Analyst at Capital Group. Darren has 25 years of investing experience, the recent 8 plus with Capital and prior to that NWQ and Putnam. He is a great friend and we very much respect his highly analytical mind and overall approach to investing. It was fantastic to visit with him and get his perspective on issues we are all thinking about in today's volatile market. Darren first helped frame our discussion with background on Capital Group, their mission, approach to investing, structure, culture, and reward structure. We then jumped into an array of topics including the increased interest in investing in oil & gas, the top factors Darren evaluates when making investments, industrial activity in Europe and the implications of Europe's energy problems, US E&Ps, the future of diesel, a carbon tax, takeaways from his recent meetings at the Calgary Stampede, the green complex, volatility in the oil & gas sector over the next few years, and more. We wrapped with Darren's outlook for the next ten years. As always, Darren's responses were extremely thoughtful and very much worth a listen. The Veriten team hit a few items before our main discussion with Darren: Mike Bradley highlighted a noteworthy indicator from AT&T and Colin Fenton expanded on jobless claims and noted price sensitivity with gasoline demand, the ECB's 50-point basis hike, and upcoming potential demand issues for Europe. We hope you enjoy the conversation as much as we did! Thanks to you all.
ECB policy decisions have not changed the inflation outlook. They have reduced credibility. Forward guidance was killed off with a 0.5ppt rate increase—this was probably done as a deal to get bond manipulation through. Killing forward guidance means economists now have no reason to listen to the innumerable speeches of ECB President Lagarde.
Pooja Kumra, Senior European Rates Strategist at TD, discusses the ECB raising rates and the European economy. Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Strategist at Northwestern Mutual, talks about investing and the economy in 2022. Bruce Lavine, CEO at Nightshares, joins the show to talk about launching ETFs to capture the “Night Effect.” Mandeep Singh, Senior Tech Analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses Twitter and Snap earnings as well as the social media selloff. Dan Murray, CEO and founder at Vertex, joins the show to talk about using tech to help advance industrial companies in America that could be vulnerable to lagging behind. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Photo: No known restrictions on publication. @Batchelorshow #ECB: #Inflation: #FederalReserve: Flying by the seat of the pants. Veronique deRugy, Mercatus Center https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/21/watch-christine-lagarde-speak-after-the-ecb-surprises-markets-with-larger-rate-hike.html
The USD has corrected lower over the past week alongside lower US yields and a rebound in global equity markets. Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst, and Simon Mayes, Director of MUFG's Global Customer Marketing Group for EMEA in London, discuss whether the best days are over for the USD rally ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. They also look at implications for the EUR from this week's ECB's policy update. Disclaimer: www.mufgresearch.com (PDF)
ย้อนรอย Zipmex ก่อนกลายเป็นเหยื่อจากเหตุการณ์ Black Swan ในตลาดคริปโต และคาดว่าความเสียหายของ Zipmex Thailand อาจไม่ต่ำกว่า 1.8 พันล้านบาท กระทบผู้ร่วมลงทุนอย่างไรบ้าง ECB ประกาศขึ้นดอกเบี้ยครั้งแรกในรอบ 11 ปี ที่ระดับ 0.5% สูงกว่าที่ตลาดคาด ส่งผลให้เงินยูโรเริ่มแข็งค่า รายละเอียดเป็นอย่างไร
US equities finished the week higher despite a risk-off session Friday, with the major indices each moving above their 50-day moving averages. Plenty of moving pieces in the market narrative this week. Weaker economic releases contributed to firming expectations that the Fed will hike by 75 bps next week. Meanwhile, the ECB hiked by 50 bps vs expectations for 25 bps. Q2 earnings season shifted into high gear, and accelerates next week with 175 S&P constituents on the calendar.
Snap shares plunged after the company missed already lowered guidance for its most recent quarter, and the news took down shares of Meta, Pinterest and other internet stocks. So did the company just take all the air out of the July rally? Plus what the ECB's rate hike means for the Fed, and the little retailers that are seeing big gains this month
Tom and Ben discuss Russia's restarting of the Nord 1 pipeline, which restored a large percentage of gas flow, as they also set annexation talks with Russian-seized lands in Ukraine. ECB and BOJ initial jobless claims have been reported for the quarter. Earnings' season continues.For information on how to join the Zoom calls live each morning at 8:30 EST, visit https://www.narwhalcapital.com/blog/daily-market-briefingsPlease see disclosures
ECB raises 50 bps: first hike in 11 yrs; biggest since 2000. TSLA earnings firmly in the “better than feared” camp. AMZN begins delivering with RIVN electric vans.Leftovers - Honor amongst trade partners.
Maeva Cousin, Euro-area economist with Bloomberg Economics, discusses the ECB raising rates and the impact of Mario Draghi's resignation on the Eurozone. Ed Price, senior fellow at NYU and political economist, discusses the ECB, UK inflation, Mario Draghi, and European energy. Ken Monaghan, co-director of high yield at Amundi US, joins us to talk about the bond market, fixed income, and investing. Barry Ritholtz, Founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management and Host of “Masters in Business,” discusses markets, labor, and the US economy.. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
ECB raises 50 bps: first hike in 11 yrs; biggest since 2000. TSLA earnings firmly in the “better than feared” camp. AMZN begins delivering with RIVN electric vans.Leftovers - Honor amongst trade partners.
S&P Futures are slightly lower this morning as the market start to price in multiple earning reports. Traders are paying attention to the the ECB as they announced interest rate increase of half a percentage point - the first rate hike in 11 years. Oil prices and the dollar are lower as a result. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned this morning. TSLA is higher after delivering better than expected earnings. President Biden plans talks with China's Xi Jinping soon, casts doubt on Pelosi's Taiwan trip
The European Central Bank raises interest rates by 0.5%, their first hike in more than a decade. And the ECB's job has just been made harder due to political turmoil in one of its largest nations, Italy, as Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigns. Meanwhile, Russian gas is flowing once again to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline, but at just a fraction of full capacity. The International Energy Agency is warning of an energy crisis for the continent. Agency head Fatih Birol joins the show to discuss.To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy
US Futures are indicating a lower open as of 05:00 ET. European equity markets are trading lower, following mixed trading in Asia. Markets are in a bit of a waiting mode in advance of a number of companies due to report earnings, today's ECB meeting, and next week's Fed meeting Companies Mentioned: ConocoPhillips, Microsoft, Nokia
The 50 BPS rate hike is the first rate hike by the ECB in 11 years. The ECB had kept rates negative since 2014. "I think that this was the right decision as they were behind the curve to fight inflation and the overall weakness of the Euro. BOJ or Bank of Japan maintained their accommodative stance. Japan has been dealing with deflationary pressures for decades. The BOJ is okay with seeing a weaker Yen as long as there is little volatility," says Michael Zarembski.
The ECB meets to decide on rates and bond market intervention. The ECB has guided very clearly that it intends to raise rates by 0.25ppt. A different increase would destroy such credibility as the ECB possesses, without bringing any inflation benefit. Raising by 0.50ppt today would not alter the inflation outlook. Faster tightening can be achieved over time, without sacrificing central bank credibility.
US equities finished Thrusday trading higher, near best levels. Philly Fed manufacturing data weak, and initial jobless claims up for the third straight week. Busy in terms of overseas headlines, though the US market is largely awaiting next week's big tech earnings, flash PMIs tomorrow, Q2 GDP and the FOMC next week, July employment data on 5-Aug, and most importantly, July CPI on 10-Aug. The ECB raised rates by 50 bps vs 25 bps consensus. Russia restarts Nord Stream 1. TSLA +10% following earnings.
Events this week have a European accent. Investors hope that this week's ECB meeting will clarify how the central bank intends to intervene in bond markets. The ECB is not expected to add unnecessary volatility by breaking with clear forward guidance on interest rates. However, Italian politics may add volatility - whether necessary or not - given uncertainty over the future of the government.
US equity futures are indicating a higher open as of 05:00 ET. European equity markets are weaker, following mostly lower Asian equities. Gazprom declares force majeure on Russian gas shipments to European customers through Nord Stream 1. The ECB bank lending survey points to tighter credit standards as risks increase. Companies Mentioned: Twitter, IBM
Steve Wyett, Chief Investment Strategist at BOK Financial, talks about markets and investing in 2022. Ivana Delevska, founder and CIO at SPEAR Invest, talks about tech stocks, including those reporting earnings this week like IBM and Netflix, and industrial tech investing. Liz McCormick, Chief Correspondent of Global Macro Markets for Bloomberg News, talks about yield curve inversions, the bond market, and Euro bonds reacting to the ECB likely raising interest rates. Ted Smith co-founder and president of Union Square Advisors, talks about tech volatility, M&A deals in tech, and trends in deal making. Max Levchin, CEO at Affirm, joins the show to discuss his company and consumer sentiment. Hosted by Paul Sweeney, Matt Miller, Kriti Gupta, and Sonali Basak. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Adversary-in-the-middle sites support business email compromise. Silent validation carding bot discovered. Attempted social engineering at the European Central Bank. Germany puts its shields up. Carole Theriault speaks with Jen Caltrider about Mozilla's *Privacy Not Included initiative. Our guest is Lucia Milica on Proofpoint's Voice of the CISO report. And Hacktivism in a hybrid war. For links to all of today's stories check out our CyberWire daily news briefing: https://thecyberwire.com/newsletters/daily-briefing/11/133 Selected reading. From cookie theft to BEC: Attackers use AiTM phishing sites as entry point to further financial fraud (Microsoft Security Blog) PerimeterX Discovers New Silent Validation Carding Bot (PerimeterX) Hackers posing as Merkel target ECB's Lagarde - German source (Reuters) European Central Bank head targeted in hacking attempt (AP NEWS) Cyberangriff auf Spitzenpolitiker: Hacker nutzten Merkels Handynummer, um das Whatsapp-Konto von Lagarde zu knacken (Business Insider) Germany bolsters defenses against Russian cyber threats (Deutsche Welle) Ukraine's cyber army hits Russian cinemas (CyberNews) DDoS attacks surge in popularity in Ukraine — but are they more than a cheap thrill? (The Record by Recorded Future) Microsoft Releases July 2022 Security Updates (CISA) CISA orders agencies to patch new Windows zero-day used in attacks (BleepingComputer) SAP Releases July 2022 Security Updates (CISA) Schneider Electric Easergy P5 and P3 (CISA) Dahua ASI7213X-T1 (CISA)