Podcasts about ECB

Just today over in Europe, two of the continent's biggest insurance companies put out statements that show this thing has already gotten very serious. At the same time of course, European banks just bought another epic amount of govt bond safety, the second most in any month on record, after telling the ECB they're highly risk averse and who can blame them with everything that keeps coming out. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------Insurers See Themselves Shielded From Private Credit Worrieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-26/axa-s-buberl-sees-concern-over-private-credit-says-exposure-lowDeutsche Bank Leads EU Lenders' Exposure to Shadow Bankshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/deutsche-bank-most-exposed-in-europe-to-shadow-banks-ubs-sayshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Katya Witney and Lauren Winfield-Hill discuss the breaking news of Sophie Molineux's back injury, before a deep dive on the issues around the international schedule. Katya then speaks to Thailand's coach and captain on their 2028 T20 World Cup ambitions. 1:19 Sophie Molineux injury/8:40 T20I Scheduling/10:40 International vs Franchise/16:20 England's lack of cricket/24:30 Katya's tournament proposal/28:15 Test cricket/30:41 Thailand captain & coach/46:31 Outro The Metro Bank Girls in Cricket Fund in collaboration with the ECB aims to triple the number of girls' cricket teams by breaking down barriers and creating supportive and inclusive spaces. Help transform the game, head to https://www.metrobankonline.co.uk/cricket/ to champion the future of girls' cricket. https://booking.ecb.co.uk/event/ed84bbd2-4cd2-4c2e-8c5c-5f683a36f478/summary

The US State Department advised its citizens in Northern Mexico to ‘shelter in place', as the cartels took their reprisals, following a major Mexican security forces operation against gang kingpin El Mencho - and then another called El Tuli. It's all LOL, until you realise that this is just the start. By targeting the cartels, the US has poked a hornet's nest; And the hornets are on cocaine. Meanwhile - have you paid a US steel tariff in recent months? Was it over 30%? If so, you could be due a refund. Just dial 1-800-WHITE HOUSE to see if you may be eligible. The Supreme Court acknowledged that sorting out the tariffs strike-down would be ‘a complete mess'. But after the mess, the reckoning: deep down, this is a story about the US balance of payments. Finally, Christine Lagarde is stepping down from the ECB. Emmanuel Macron' s Napoleonic pincer movement is that this frees the way for a Lagarde Presidential Run – and stops a National Rally government from appointing its own bank governor in 2028. But with these kinds of cynical machinations now effectively running the European elite, the entire Centrist establishment may be embarking on its Russia Campaign. All of this. Coming up. For premium subscribers. That's right - it's premium week. If you're not a premium subscriber, you can sign up on our new Metternich Tier on Patreon, for eight dollars, pounds or Euros a month. patreon.com/multipolarityFor clarity, we should point out that founder subscribers still on the old Palmerston tier will stay at $5 a month. For anyone else, try it once, you won't regret it. And you can cancel any time. And if you like visual Multipolarity, you can always check us out on Substack, where we're expanding our output with a weekly Multipolarity Briefing every Tuesday. multipolaritypod.substack.com

APAC stocks are mostly positive as the majority of the region took its cue from gains on Wall Street, where tech led the advances, and NVIDIA posted stronger-than-expected earnings.US equity futures initially saw support following NVIDIA's earnings results, as the world's most valuable company beat on top and bottom lines, although gains were pared as NVIDIA ultimately returned to flat territory after hours.BoJ's Governor Ueda said there is no change from January to the BoJ's projected timing for hitting its price target, and inflation is expected to re-accelerate from the current slowdown.US VP Vance said they see evidence that Iran is trying to build a nuclear weapon; US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran poses a grave threat and seeks nuclear capability.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence Final (Feb), US Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Lombardelli & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Italy & US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Vistra Energy, Autodesk, Dell, Baidu, Warner Bros Discovery, Munich Re, Schneider Electric, AXA, Engie & Saint-Gobain.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Een jaar lang scheten aandeelhouders van Wolters Kluwer in hun broek voor wat er daar aan zat te komen. Het verdienmodel van het databedrijf zou onderuit gehaald worden door AI-bedrijven die het allemaal beter en sneller gaan kunnen. Waardoor de beurskoers in een jaar tijd met ruim 60 procent daalde. Alleen... dat blijkt nu behoorlijk paniekvoetbal. De kwartaalcijfers laten namelijk een ander beeld zien. Omzet en winst stijgen. En Wolters Kluwer bewijst het ongelijk van beleggers nog even extra: want vooral de cloud-activiteiten groeien hard, met 15 procent. Een afscheid in stijl voor ceo Nancy McKinstry, wiens laatste kwartaal dit was. Deze aflevering kijken we of aandeelhouders die zijn vertrokken, nu reden hebben om terug te keren.Hebben we het ook over een ander beursdrama, maar dan in Denemarken. Dat van Novo Nordisk. De maker van onder meer Ozempic had een voorsprong met hun afvalmedicatie, maar werd keihard ingehaald door de concurrentie. En zag het aandeel zelf op een crashdieet gaan. Van het meest waardevolle Europese beursbedrijf, naar een van de beurslosers. Maar die tijd is misschien wel voorbij, want Novo Nordisk heeft iets verzonnen. Het gaat de prijzen halveren.Hoor je ook meer over de State of the Union. Trumps speech heeft een record gebroken. Nog nooit duurde dat politieke praatje zo lang. Maar of het ook een beetje inhoudelijk was, dat bespreken we deze aflevering. Zo wil Trump de inkomstenbelasting inruilen voor.... tarieven! Te gast: Martine Hafkamp van Fintessa Vermogensbeheer BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie. Van Musk tot Microsoft en van Ahold tot ASML. Wij vertellen je wat beleggers bezighoudt, wie de markten in beweging zet en wat dat betekent voor jouw beleggingsportefeuille.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

European bourses slip as AI concerns hit European Banks; US equity futures rebound slightly.JPY dragged on reports PM Takaichi raised reservations about rate hikes to BoJ Governor Ueda; DXY slightly firmer.Gilts notch a fresh contract high into the TSC, USTs rangebound heading into heavy speaker docket.WTI and Brent mildly gains; Spot gold retreats from Monday's best while Copper gains as mainland China returns. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC mostly firmer as China returned, somewhat shrugging off the weak Wall St. finish on AI disruption concerns.DXY marginally firmer, EUR/USD directionless, while USD/JPY edged higher and above 155.00.USTs pulled back from Monday's best, Bunds remained near highs, while JGBs saw choppy action after the long weekend.Crude remained tentative amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, XAU faded while copper rallied as China returned.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Een Europese oorlog met Rusland, het einde van de oude wereldorde en de onthullingen rond de Epstein-files. In deze Holland Gold Maandupdate spreekt Yael Potjer met Sander Boon over de meest opvallende geopolitieke ontwikkelingen en machtsverschuivingen. Ze bespreken onder meer de NAVO, de strategie van Donald Trump, de speech van Mark Carney op het World Economic Forum, de ideeën van Ursula von der Leyen en de toekomst van de Europese Unie.Ook komt de toespraak van Marco Rubio aan bod, waarin de Verenigde Staten volgens Sander de hand uitsteken naar Europa voor een alliantie op basis van gedeelde waarden. Tegelijkertijd plaatst hij vraagtekens bij de koers van Ursula von der Leyen, die volgens hem mogelijk andere plannen heeft voor de toekomst van Europa. Volgens hem woedt er een fundamentele strijd over de waarden van het Westen.Daarnaast bespreken Yael en Sander de vraag of Europa daadwerkelijk afstevent op een oorlog met Rusland, nu de oorlogsretoriek toeneemt en er steeds nadrukkelijker wordt ingezet op de opbouw van de Europese oorlogsindustrie. Is de kans op verdere escalatie met Rusland reëel?Tot slot bespreken zij de belangrijkste lessen uit de Epstein-files en de mogelijke consequenties van deze openbaringen. Ook komt de rol van goud in een nieuwe wereldorde aan bod.Bekijk de website van Sander Boon: https://boonknopers.com/Volg Sander op X: https://x.com/Sander_O_BoonOverweegt u om goud en zilver aan te kopen? Dat kan via de volgende website: https://bit.ly/3xxy4sYTimestamps00:00 Intro04:00 Carney, Davos & de rules based order10:48 Nieuwe Wereldorde: hard power & strategische autonomie16:52 Donald Trump18:33 Marco Rubio veiligheidsconferentie München 23:30 Toekomst Navo27:00 Ursula von der Leyen, artikel 42.7 & Westerse waarden34:07 Economie & oorlogsindustrie37:55 Oorlog met Rusland?51:54 Pers & social media57:58 ECB & Europese Unie1:01:50 Epstein files1:07:31 Rol van GoudTwitter:@Hollandgold:   / hollandgold  @paulbuitink:   / paulbuitink  Yael Potjer op X: https://x.com/GoedWeerGenieteLet op: Holland Gold vindt het belangrijk dat iedereen vrijuit kan spreken. Wij willen u er graag op attenderen dat de uitspraken die worden gedaan door de geïnterviewde niet persé betekenen dat Holland Gold hier achter staat. Alle uitspraken zijn gedaan op persoonlijke titel door de geïnterviewde en dragen zo bij aan een breed, kleurrijk en voor de kijker interessant beeld van de onderwerpen. Zo willen en kunnen wij u een transparante bijdrage en een zo volledig mogelijk inzicht geven in de economische marktontwikkelingen. Al onze video's zijn er enkel op gericht u te informeren. De informatie en data die we presenteren kunnen verouderd zijn bij het bekijken van onze video's. Onze video's zijn geen financieel advies. U alleen kunt bepalen hoe het beste uw vermogen kunt beleggen. U draagt zelf de risico's van uw keuzes.Bekijk onze website: https://www.hollandgold.nl

Microsoft: 5 procent in het rood. Crowdstrike: verliest 10 procent. En IBM lijdt zelfs het grootste koersverlies sinds het jaar 2000: 13 procent. Beleggers zijn opeens niet meer bang voor een AI-bubbel, maar vrezen dat al die kunstmatige intelligentie de verdienmodellen van bijna alle gevestigde bedrijven kapot gaat maken. Met als gevolg massale werkloosheid, en een enorme recessie. Het wordt allemaal geschetst in een doomsday-scenario van een zwartgallige onderzoeker, maar toch wegen beleggers er heel zwaar aan. Waarom? En terecht? Dat zoeken we deze aflevering voor je uit. Het is ook de dag dat de nieuwe importheffingen van Donald Trump ingaan. En de dag dat het eerste bedrijf in opstand komt. Pakketbezorger FedEx eist z'n geld terug. Dat heeft flink moeten dokken voor al die importheffingen en wil dat vergoed zien door de Amerikaanse overheid. Zijn ze dapper, of roepen ze de wraak van Trump op zich af? Verder hoor je nog over AMD. Dat sleept weer een nieuwe klant binnen. Volgens sommigen krijgen ze tot wel 100 miljard dollar voor chips die ze aan Meta gaan leveren. En over Meta gesproken: een van hun AI-topmensen blijkt niet zo goed om te kunnen gaan met... AI. Te gast: Jean-Paul van Oudheusden, van eToro en de man achter Markets are Everywhere BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij BNR Zakendoen en de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie. Van Musk tot Microsoft en van Ahold tot ASML. Wij vertellen je wat beleggers bezighoudt, wie de markten in beweging zet en wat dat betekent voor jouw beleggingsportefeuille.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Trump raised the blanket tariff rate to 15% from 10% over the weekend, following SCOTUS ruling against IEEPA tariffs on Friday; EU is set to freeze trade deal approval over US President Trump's tariff risk, Bloomberg reports.European equities mixed; Defence names hit as Hungary blocks further funding.DXY pressured on renewed uncertainty after Trump increases global tariffs to 15%.Fixed income relatively contained and awaiting further tariff updates.WTI and Brent rangebound ahead of US-Iran talks this week; Spot XAU regains USD 5k/oz handle.US President Trump reportedly considers a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack and is open to deposing the Supreme Leader by force if Iran is stubborn, according to the NYT.Looking ahead, highlights include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec/Jan). Speakers include BoE's Taylor, Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde. Earnings from Hims & Hers.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Onze analist van dienst stond al met zijn neus bij de etalage voor een paar aandeeltjes Klarna, toen deze op $30 noteerde. Als een kindje dat pruimen zag hangen, o, als appelen zo groot! Maar wat kan hij in zijn handjes wrijven, want de bodem was voor Klarna nog lang niet in zicht. Na de beursgang in september verloor de Zweedse fintech 70% van haar marktwaarde. Terecht, of is Klarna de kans van de eeuw? En Trump stort beleggers wereldwijd weer in de onzekerheid met zijn heffingenheisa. Goed nieuws voor Azië, waar de nieuwe heffingen lager uitpakken dan de vorige. In het VK zullen ze daarentegen minder staan te springen. Wat is er dit weekend nou precies gebeurd, en wat betekent dat voor jou? Ook daar is genoeg om uit te pakken. Verder in deze show: Box-3 voer voor hoofdredactie Washington Post Netflix bestuurslid moet ONMIDDELIJK ontslagen worden van Trump, terwijl ze middenin de overnamestrijd rond Warner Bros zitten McDonalds is het nieuwe goud Waarom de Zuid-Koreanen dol zijn op hefboompjes VEB wil dat de AFM onderzoek gaat doen naar handel met voorkennis in aandelen van InPost Te gast: Justin Blekemolen van online broker Lynx BNR Beurs is een journalistiek onafhankelijke productie, mede mogelijk gemaakt door Saxo. Over de makers: Jelle Maasbach is presentator van BNR Beurs en freelance financieel journalist. Zijn favoriete aandeel om over te praten is Disney, maar daar lijkt hij de enige in te zijn. Sinds de eerste uitzending van BNR Beurs is 'ie er bij. Maxim van Mil is presentator van BNR Beurs en journalist bij BNR, waar hij zich focust op de financiële markten en ontwikkelingen in de tech-wereld. Je krijgt hem het meest enthousiast als hij kan praten over ASML, of oer-Hollandse bedrijven zoals Ahold of ABN Amro. Jorik Simonides is presentator van BNR Beurs, economieredacteur en verslaggever bij BNR. Hij wordt er vooral blij van als het een keer níet over AI gaat. Milou Brand is presentator van BNR Beurs, freelance podcastmaker en columnist bij het Financieele Dagblad. Jochem Visser is presentator van BNR Beurs, maakt Beursnerd XL en is redacteur bij BNR Zakendoen en de podcast Onder Curatoren. Vraag hem naar obscure zaken op financiële markten en hij vertelt je waarom het eigenlijk nóg leuker is dan je al dacht. Over de podcast: Met BNR Beurs ga je altijd voorbereid de nieuwe beursdag in. We praten je in een kleine 25 minuten bij over alle laatste ontwikkelingen op de handelsvloer. We blijven niet alleen bij de AEX of Wall Street, maar vertellen je ook waar nog meer kansen liggen. En we houden het niet bij de cijfers, maar zoeken ook iedere dag voor je naar duiding van scherpe gasten en experts. Of je nu een ervaren belegger bent of net begint met je eerste stappen op de beurs, de podcast biedt waardevolle inzichten voor je beleggingsstrategie. Door de focus op zowel de korte termijn als de lange termijn, helpt BNR Beurs luisteraars om de ruis van de markt te scheiden van de essentie. Van Musk tot Microsoft en van Ahold tot ASML. Wij vertellen je wat beleggers bezighoudt, wie de markten in beweging zet en wat dat betekent voor jouw beleggingsportefeuille.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In our latest episode, our team discusses the next ECB president in the context of French politics and Europe's role in the global economy.

On the eve of the T20 World Cup Super Eights it has been revealed that Hundred franchises part-owned by Indian Premier League teams are being prevented from signing Pakistani players in the forthcoming Hundred auction. Simon Hughes and Simon Mann consider the ramifications of this for the ECB's campaign to improve diversity and inclusivity in the game. They are also joined by writer and commentator Peter della Penna to discuss the associate teams emergence in the T20 World Cup, an encouraging future for USA cricket, the likely semi finalists and when the world's leading T20 batsman, Abishek Sharma, will score his first run in the tournament. For more on the art of T20 batting, subscribe to The Cricverse on Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week, we examine coming US inflation and labour market data, and the Fed outlook following a hawkish set of minutes this week. In Europe, we discuss reports that President Lagarde could be leaving the ECB early and consider the growth and inflation outlook for the region. Across Asia, we preview the Bank of Korea and Bank of Thailand policy meetings, and examine key coming data in India, Japan and Australia. Chapters: US: 2:00; Europe: 8:15;  Asia: 14:00

幻冬舎の暗号資産（仮想通貨）/ブロックチェーンなどWeb3領域の専門メディア「あたらしい経済 https://www.neweconomy.jp/ 」がおくる、Podcast番組です。 ーーーーー 【番組スポンサー】 この番組は、暗号資産取引におけるフルラインナップサービスを提供する「SBI VCトレード」のスポンサーでお届けします。 ーーーーー SBI VCトレードは、「暗号資産もSBI」のスローガンのもと、国内最大級のインターネット総合金融グループであるSBIグループの総合力を生かし、暗号資産取引におけるフルラインナップサービスを提供しております。暗号資産交換業者・第一種金融商品取引業者・電子決済手段等取引業者として高いセキュリティ体制のもと、暗号資産の売買にとどまらない暗号資産運用サービスや法人向けサービスの展開、さらにステーブルコインのユーエスディーシー（USDC）を国内で初めて取り扱っております。 ーーーーー SBI VCトレード公式サイト：https://account.sbivc.co.jp/signup?hc_ak=1RNML.3.M06AS ーーーーー 【紹介したニュース】 ・リミックスポイントが1,411BTC運用へ、SBIデジタルファイナンスのレンディングで ・JCB・デジタルガレージ・りそな、渋谷のカフェで「USDC」と「JPYC」の決済実証実験へ ・CMEグループ、5/29から先物・オプション取引を24時間365日対応へ ・プロシェアーズの「GENIUS法準拠」のMMF型ETF、NYSEアーカに上場 ・ユニスワップ、プロトコル手数料の適用範囲拡大を提案。全v3プールと8チェーンが対象に ・米カリフォルニア州、暗号資産事業者向け州ライセンス制度を本格運用へ ・ECB、デジタルユーロで決済主権強化へ。2027年にパイロット開始見通し ・仏大手銀行ソシエテ、ユーロ建てステーブルコイン「EURCV」をXRPLに展開 ・XRPレジャー、許可制DEXの正式稼働を実現。規制対応環境の本格構築へ ・イーサリアム財団、2026年ロードマップの整理を公表。拡張と安全性の両立を重視 ・ビットワイズ、米大統領選と中間選挙の結果に連動するイベント契約ETFをSECに申請 ・セリグCFTC委員長、イベント契約は「連邦の専管事項」。州訴訟に反論 ・EU、ロシア関連の全暗号資産取引を禁止へ＝FT 【あたらしい経済関連リンク】 ニュースの詳細や、アーカイブやその他の記事はこちらから https://www.neweconomy.jp/

In de IEX Beleggerspodcast gaat het over alles wat beleggers aangaat, of dat nu de kwartaalcijfers van Besi zijn of de omstreden hervorming van de Box 3-belasting, die bijna is aangenomen. Met gasten Arne Petimezas, hoofd research bij AFS Interest, en IEX-analist Hildo Laman staat Pieter Kort uitgebreid stil bij de gevolgen van de invoering van de nieuwe Box 3-belasting, die wel eens ernstiger kunnen zijn dan waar de politiek  rekening mee houdt. En bovendien niet lijken te stroken met het Europese beleid om de concurrentiekracht van bedrijven te versterken met hulp van particuliere beleggingen. Verder is er aandacht voor de ECB, rente-ontwikkelingen en de kwartaalcijfers van bedrijven als Besi, Arcadis, ASR, IMCD en Theon.Nieuws van de week: sterke winstgroei in de VSRenteverschillen in de eurozone lopen terugDe nieuwe Box 3-plannenGaat ECB-president Christine Lagarde vervroegd aftreden?De euro een wereldreservevaluta; willen we dat wel?Aandelen:Bekijk of beluister de podcast via de player hierboven, of gan naar YouTube of uw favoriete podcast-app.Links uit deze podcast:Geef uw mening over de Box 3-plannenLangdurige groei voor Besi betekent hogere waarderingGroei slaat om in krimp bij ArcadisIs dit de bodem voor IMCD?

Our Global Head of FX and EM Strategy James Lord and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter discuss what's driving the U.S. policy for the dollar and the outlook for other global currencies.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----James Lord: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm James Lord, Global Head of FX and EM Strategy at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter:  And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. James Lord: Today we're talking about U.S. currency policy and whether recent news on intervention and nominations to the Fed change anything for the outlook of the dollar. It's Thursday, February 19th at 3pm in London. So it's been an interesting few weeks in currency markets. Plenty of dollar selling going on But then, we got news that Kevin Warsh is going to be nominated to Chair of the Board of Governors. And that sent the dollar back higher, reminding everybody that monetary policy and central bank policy still matter. So, in the aftermath of the dollar-yen rate check, investors started to discuss whether or not the U.S. might be starting to target a weaker currency. Not just be comfortable with a weaker currency, but actually explicitly target a weaker currency, which would presumably be a shift away from the stronger strong dollar policy that Secretary Bessent referenced. So, what is your understanding? What do you think the strong dollar policy actually means? Seth Carpenter: Strong dollar policy, that's a phrase, that's a term; it's a concept that lots of Secretaries of the Treasury have used for a long time. And I specifically point to the Secretary of the Treasury because at least in the recent couple of decades, there has been in standard Washington D.C. approach to things, a strong dichotomy that currency policy is the policy of the Treasury Department, not of the central bank. And that's always been important. I remember when I was working at the Treasury Department, that was still part of the talking points that the secretary used. However, you also hear Secretaries of the Treasury say that exchange rates should be market determined; that that's a key part of it. And with the back and forth between the U.S. and China, for example, there was a lot of discussion: Was the Chinese government adjusting or manipulating the value of their currency? And there was a push that currencies should be market determined. And so, if you think about those two things, at the same time – pushing really hard that the dollar should be strong, pushing really hard that currencies should be market determined – you start to very quickly run into a bit of an intellectual tension. And I think all of that is pretty intentional. What does it mean? It means that there's no single clear definition of strong dollar policy. It's a little bit of the eye of the beholder. It's an acknowledgement that the dollar plays a clear key role in global markets, and it's good for the U.S. for that to happen. That's traditionally been what it means. But it has not meant a specific number relative to any other currency or any basket of currency. It has not meant a specific value based on some sort of long run theoretical fair value. It is always meant to be a very vague, deliberately so, very vague concept. James Lord: So, in that version of what the strong dollar policy means, presumably the sort of ambiguity still leaves space for the Treasury to conduct some kind of intervention in dollar-yen, if they wanted to. And that would still be very much consistent with that definition of the strong dollar policy. I also, in the back of my head, always wonder whether the strong dollar policy has anything to do with the dollar's global role. And the sort of foreign policy power that gives the Treasury in sanctions policy. And other areas where, you know, they can control dollar flows and so on. And that gives the U.S. government some leverage. And that allows them to project strength in foreign policy. Has that anything to do with the traditional versions of the strong policy? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. I think all of that is part and parcel to it. But it also helps to explain a little bit of why there's never going to be a very crisp, specific numerical definition of what a strong dollar policy is.So, first and foremost, I think the discussion of intervention; I think it is, in lots of ways, consistent, especially if you have that more expansive definition of strong dollar, i.e. the currency that's very important, or most important in global financial markets and in global trade. So, I think in that regard, you could have both the intervention and the strong dollar at the same time. I will add though that the administration has not had a clear, consistent view in this regard, in the following very specific sense. When now Governor Myron was chair of the Council of Economic Advisors, he penned a piece on the Council of Economics website that said that the reserve currency status of the dollar had brought with it some adverse effects on the U.S., and in terms of what happened in terms of trade flows and that sort of thing.So again, this administration has also tried to find ways to increase the nuance about what the currency policy is, and putting forward the idea that too strong of a dollar in the FX sense. In the sense that you and your colleagues in FX markets would think about is a high valuation of the dollar relative to other currencies – could have contributed to these trade deficits that they're trying to push back against. So, I would say we went from the previous broad, perhaps vague definition of strong dollar. And now we're in an even murkier regime where there could be other motivations for changing the value of the dollar. Seth Carpenter: So, James, that's been our view in terms of the Fed, but let me come back to you because there are lots of different forces going on at the same time. The central bank is clearly an important one, but it's only one factor among many. So, if you think about where the dollar is likely to go over the next three months, over the next six months, maybe over the next year, what is it that you and your team are looking for? Where are the questions that you're getting from clients? James Lord: Yeah, so when we came into the start of this year, we did have a bearish view on the dollar. I would say that the drivers of it, we'd split up into two components. The first component was a lot more of the conventional stuff about growth expectations, what we see the Fed doing. And then there was another component to it where – what we defined as risk premia, I suppose. The more unconventional catalysts that can push the dollar around, as we saw, come very much to market attention during the second quarter of last year, when the Liberation Day tariffs were announced and the dollar weakened far in excess of what rate differentials would imply. And so, I would say so far this year, the majority of the dollar move that we've seen, the weakening in the dollar that we've seen, has been driven by that second component. What we've kind of called risk premia. And the conversations that, you know, investors have been having about U.S. policy towards Greenland, and then more recently, the conversations that people have been having around FX intervention following the dollar-yen rate check. These sorts of things have been really driving the currency up until , when the Kevin Warsh nomination was announced. When we look at the extent of the risk premia that we see in the dollar now, it is pretty close to the levels that we saw in the second quarter of last year, which is to say it's pretty big. Euro dollar would probably be closer to 1-10, if we were just thinking about the impact of rate differentials and none of this risk premia stuff over the past year had materialized. That's obviously a very big gap. And I think for now that gap probably isn't going to widen much further, particularly now that market attention is much more focused on the impact that Kevin Warsh will have on markets and the dollar. We also have, you know, the ECB and the Bank of England; , house call for those two central banks is for them to be cutting rates. That could also put some downward pressure on those currencies, relative to the dollar. So all of that is to say for some of the major currencies within the G10 space, like sterling, like euro against the dollar, this probably isn't the time to be pushing a weaker dollar. But I think there are some other currencies which still have some opportunity in the short term, but also over the longer run as well. And that's really in emerging markets. So all of that is to say, I think there is a strong monetary policy anchor for emerging market currencies. This is an asset class that has been under invested in for some time. And we do think that there are more gains there in the short term and over the medium term as well. Seth Carpenter: So on that topic, James, would you then agree? So if I think about some of the EM central banks, think about Banxico, think about the BCB – where the dollar falling in value, their currency gaining in value – that could actually have a couple things go on to allow the central bank, maybe to ease more than they would've otherwise. One, in terms of imported inflation, their currency strengthening on a relative basis probably helps with a bit lower inflation. And secondly, a lot of EM central banks have to worry a bit about defending their currency, especially in a volatile geopolitical time. And you were pointing to sort of lower volatility more broadly. So is this a reinforcing trend perhaps, where if the dollar is coming down a little bit, especially against DM currencies, it allows more external stability for those central banks, allowing them to just focus on their domestic mandates, which could also lead to a further reduction in their domestic rates, which might be good for investors. James Lord: Yeah, I think there's something to that. given the strength of emerging market currencies. There should be, over time, more space for them to ease if the domestic conditions warrant it. But so far we're not really seeing many EM central banks taking advantage of that opportunity. There is a sort of general pattern with a lot of EMs that they're staying pretty conservative and more hawkish than I think what markets have generally been expecting, and that's been supporting their currencies. I think it's interesting to think about what would happen if they're on the flip side. What would happen if they did start to push monetary easing at a faster pace? I'm sure on the days where that happens, the currencies would weaken a little bit. However, if the market backdrop is generally constructive on risk, and investors want to have exposure to EM – then what could ultimately happen is that asset managers will simply buy more bonds as they price in a lower path for central bank policy over time. And that causes more capital inflows. And that sort of overwhelms the knee jerk effect from the more dovish stance of monetary policy on the currency. You get more duration flows coming into the market and that helps their currency. So, yes, if EM central banks push back with more dovish policy, significantly, it could pose some short-term volatility. But assuming we remain a low-vol environment globally, I would use those as buying opportunities. Seth Carpenter: Thanks, James. It's been great being on the show with you. Thank you for inviting me, and I hope to be able to come back and join you at some point in the future if you'll have me. James Lord: Thank you, Seth, for making the time to talk. And to all you listening, thank you for lending us your ears. Let us know what you think of this podcast by leaving us a review. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Crypto News: Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said he owns only a small amount of bitcoin but is closely watching the cryptocurrency as part of a broader shift in financial technology. Deutsche Bank is partnering with Ripple to potentially utilize the XRP Ledger.Brought to you by

Katya Witney speaks to Lauren Bell about her hugely successful time winning the WPL with RCB this month, before discussing the make up of Australia's T20 side & the retirement of Tash Farrant with Lauren Winfield-Hill. 0:56 Intro/4:06 Lauren Bell on WPL & social media/27:57 Annabel Sutherland/33:47 Australia bowling options/37:23 Australia World Cup prep/39:07 Fatima Sana/41:13 Tash Farrant retirement The Metro Bank Girls in Cricket Fund in collaboration with the ECB aims to triple the number of girls' cricket teams by breaking down barriers and creating supportive and inclusive spaces. Help transform the game, head to https://www.metrobankonline.co.uk/cricket/ to champion the future of girls' cricket. https://booking.ecb.co.uk/event/ed84bbd2-4cd2-4c2e-8c5c-5f683a36f478/summary

News of a potential choreographed change at the top of the ECB has pushed Europe's Stoxx 600 to another record close. Wall Street also closed in the green even though FOMC minutes signal a rate cut pause in the near term. We are live at the A.I. Impact summit in New Delhi where we hear from Microsoft CEO Brad Smith. He tells CNBC that U.S. and European tech companies should be wary of increased Chinese competition within the A.I. sector. Continued tensions in the Arabian Sea over potential U.S. naval intervention in Iran, pushing crude prices more than 4 per cent higher in yesterday's session. Swiss food giant Nestlé beats Q4 sales expectations and has unveiled plans to streamline its product portfolio. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

APAC stocks traded higher following the positive handover from the US and with South Korea outperforming amid tech strength on return from the Lunar New Year holidays.FOMC's January meeting minutes showed a broad agreement to hold rates, but views diverged on the path ahead.US senior official told Axios that the round of talks with Iran in Geneva was "a hamburger stuffed with nothing" and is one of the reasons why Trump is close to making a decision on the issue of going to war with Iran, according to Axios's Ravid.US senior official stated that all US forces involved in the Middle East build-up should be in place by mid-March and that Secretary of State Rubio will travel to Israel to meet Israeli PM Netanyahu to discuss Iran on the weekend of February 28th.US President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economy at 16:00 EST/21:00 GMT on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade Balance (Dec), Weekly/Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Jan), EZ Flash Consumer Confidence (Feb), New Zealand Trade Balance (Jan), Australian Flash PMIs (Feb), Japanese CPI (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, ECB's de Guindos, Fed's Bostic, Kashkari, Goolsbee & Bowman. Supply from Spain, France & US. Earnings from Walmart, Deere, Wayfair, Klarna, Opendoor, Newmont Mining, Southern & Constellation Energy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico.European equities lower as Airbus misses on 2026 aircraft deliveries; US equity futures slip.Antipodeans gain following recent losses; DXY flat after Wednesday's advances.Bonds hold a bearish bias, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session due to various factors.Crude benchmarks and precious metals benefit from growing US-Iran tension, whilst copper lags on weak European sentiment and Chinese holiday.US President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economy at 16:00EST/21:00GMT on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade Balance (Dec), Weekly/Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Jan), EZ Flash Consumer Confidence (Feb), New Zealand Trade Balance (Jan), Australian Flash PMIs (Feb), Japanese CPI (Jan). Speakers include ECB's de Guindos, Fed's Bostic, Kashkari, Goolsbee & Bowman. Supply from the US. Earnings from Walmart, Deere, Wayfair, Klarna, Opendoor, Newmont Mining, Southern & Constellation Energy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Bitcoin schommelt deze week rond de $67.000. In deze aflevering een breed scala aan onderwerpen. Bert duikt in BIP 360, de eerste stap richting quantumbestendig Bitcoin, en de ECB lijkt steeds opener te staan tegenover stablecoins. Abu Dhabi en Hong Kong stapelen ondertussen rustig bitcoin in. Ook bespreken we het verbod op Polymarket in Nederland en de vraag: hoe meet je eigenlijk het nut van AI-modellen? Bart neemt de nieuwe Box 3-wetgeving onder de loep die voor hysterische reacties zorgt bij beleggers (aldus het FD), en legt uit waarom Base afscheid neemt van Optimism. Tot slot: de Umbrel Pro is gelanceerd. Veel luisterplezier!Probeer Bitcoin Alpha 2 weken gratis!Luister het Crypto Journaal hier: elke week op maandag het laatste crypto nieuws in 15 minuten, door de mannen van Satoshi Radio.Satoshi Radio wordt mede mogelijk gemaakt door: Firefish, Watson Law en onze hoofdsponsor Bitvavo.Thumbnail:Polymarket verboden in NederlandTimestamps(00:00:00) Welkom en Podcast Introductie(00:18:00) Bookmark van Bart: Nieuwe BOX 3 belasting goedgekeurd door de kamer(01:01:00) Bookmark van Bart: Umbrel Pro aangekondigd(01:06:00) Bookmark van Bert: Polymarket verboden in Nederland(01:25:00) Bookmark van Bert: Bitcoin developers merge BIP 360 in first move to address quantum computing risks(01:38:00) Bookmark van Bert: “Growing open-mindedness at ECB” over stablecoins(01:41:00) Bookmark van Bart: The next chapter for base(01:49:00) Bookmark van Bert: Abu Dhabi vergrootte bitcoin-positie in Q4 2025(01:56:00) MarktupdateBookmarksBert:Draadje Bert over box 3 & verliesverrekening met grafiekenBitcoin developers merge BIP 360 in first move to address quantum computing risksBIP-360 op Githubbip360.org“growing open-mindedness at ECB” over stablecoinsAbu Dhabi vergrootte bitcoin-positie in Q4 2025Hong-Kong enters the chatPolymarket verboden in NederlandCFTC Chairman Mike Selig: I have some big news to announce…I don't remember the CFTC having authority over the “derivative market” of LeBron James rebounds“Couldn't be more clear.”Hoe meet je het nut van AI-modellen?Bart:Wet werkelijk rendement box 3 aangenomen in de Tweede Kamer.Box 3-hervorming zorgt voor ‘hysterische' reacties bij beleggersThe next chapter for baseAs a COIN shareholder I'm deeply concernedUmbrel Pro gelanceerdBeursgang bitcoinbedrijf Treasury loopt spaak na eisen van AFMGemini maakt verlies, halve board eruit en weg uit EU/VKPeter:

Meta has agreed to spend billions of dollars on millions of Nvidia's chips, and Warner Bros Discovery has reopened sale talks with Paramount. Plus, Christine Lagarde has decided to leave her post as president of the European Central Bank early, and US offshore wind companies are racing to bring projects online that can withstand Donald Trump's efforts to cripple the industry. Mentioned in this podcast:Nvidia secures multibillion-dollar Meta deal as it battles chip rivalsWarner Bros throws ownership battle open by giving Paramount a week to up its offerUS offshore wind farms try to withstand the force of Trump's wrathChristine Lagarde to leave the ECB before April 2027US restaurants downsize meals to counter anti-obesity drugs and affordability crisisNote: The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts Today's FT News Briefing was hosted and edited by Marc Filippino, and produced by Victoria Craig. Our show was mixed by Kent Militzer. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann. Our executive producer is Topher Forhecz. Cheryl Brumley is the FT's Global Head of Audio. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise, Axios reports citing sources; a military operation would likely be a massive, weeks long campaign that will be a joint US-Israeli attack. European equities entirely in the green, with IBEX leading the way; US equity futures continue to extend Tuesday's gains.DXY firmer, Kiwi hit post-RBNZ while Cable holds afloat following UK inflation.Gilts choppy post-CPI; USTs slightly lower ahead of FOMC minutes.WTI and Brent nurse prior day losses as Ukraine talks conclude; Metals rebound. Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Minutes (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Fed's Bowman. Supply from the US. Earnings from Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody's, Garmin & Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher in continued thin conditions as many regional bourses remained closed for holidays.RBNZ kept the OCR at 2.25%, as expected, and the central bank refrained from any hawkish surprises; NZD heavily underperforms.US VP Vance said in some ways Iran talks went well, while he added that Iranians are not yet willing to acknowledge some of President Trump's red lines.US Special Envoy Witkoff said the US facilitated the trilateral meeting between Ukraine and Russia, while he added that Ukraine and Russia agreed to update leaders and pursue an agreement.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.7% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI (Jan), US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Minutes (Jan), US-Ukraine-Russia talks to take place (17-18 Feb). Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, Schnabel & Fed's Bowman. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody's, Garmin, Glencore & Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, has decided to leave her position as the EU's top central banker before the end of her mandate in October 2027, according to a report in the Financial Times. The move could allow for her successor to be named ahead of presidential elections in France. Also in this edition, Venezuela's interim government issues its first statement on the disputed oil-rich territory of Essequibo. 

How safe are our banks in the euro area? The world around us is changing – geopolitical tensions , AI and climate change can all pose risks to banks. So how can banks best manage their risks? What are supervisors focusing on in the coming year? And what measures are they taking to make supervision less complex? Our host Stefania Secola speaks to Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch to find out. The views expressed are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank. Recorded on 4 February 2026 and published on 17 February 2026. In this episode: 00:57 How safe is your bank? How are euro area banks doing? How does the ECB – together with national supervisors – examine their health? 03:51 What risks should banks be focusing on? How is the external environment in which banks operate changing? How can risks from geopolitical uncertainty, digitalisation and climate change feed through to banks? 06:02 How is supervision evolving? In a changing external environment, we need new strategies to properly manage new risks. How is European supervision adapting to become more efficient, effective and risk-focused? 08:57 Why is supervision so complex? Modern banks are complex, operating across borders and with different business models. How can we reduce undue complexity in supervision? 10:54 Let's talk about competitiveness Do regulation and supervision hinder the competitiveness of euro area banks? What does the banking sector need to do to stay competitive, and how can European banking supervision help? 13:02 Our guest's hot tips Claudia Buch shares her hot tips. Streamlining supervision, safeguarding resilience: https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/framework/approach/html/simplification.en.html Governing Council proposes simplification of EU banking rules: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr251211~aa5c9271b8.en.html Banking supervision explained https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/about/banking-supervision-explained/html/index.en.html Espresso Economics https://www.youtube.com/@Espresso_Economics ECB Instagram https://www.instagram.com/europeancentralbank/

APAC stocks were mostly lower as the region took its cue from the losses stateside, where tech underperformed as AI-disruption concerns re-emerged, and logistics/industrials stocks were also pressured after Algorhythm Holdings (RIME) released its AI freight scaling tool.US President Trump said we have to make a deal with Iran and could reach a deal over the next month.US President Trump reiterated he is going to China in April and that Chinese President Xi will visit the US later this year, while he added the relationship with China is very good right now.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Prices (Jan), Swiss CPI (Jan), EZ Prelim Employment (Q4), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q4), US CPI (Jan), Speakers including ECB's de Guindos, BoE's Pill, Earnings from Moderna & NatWest.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.European equities shrug off the selloff seen stateside; Tech rebounds while Basic Resources lag; US equity futures hold steady.DXY slightly firmer and USTs rangebound heading into US CPI; JPY underperforms.Precious metals recover following Thursday's slump, whilst Copper lags on the back of weaker risk sentiment; Crude flat.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Jan), Speakers including ECBʼs de Guindos, BoEʼs Pill, Earnings from Moderna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China's Commerce Ministry announces a tariff of up to 11.7% (prev. 42.7%) on EU dairy products; effective from February 13th.European equities broadly in the green; Financials lead as Schroders (+28.5%) gets acquired by Nuveen; US equity futures are entirely in the green.G10s mostly firmer against the USD; AUD takes a slight breather.Gilts lead after soft GDP though BoE pricing largely unaffected; USTs tread water ahead of Friday's CPI.WTI and Brent trade slightly lower as geopolitics remain quiet; IEA cut 2026 global oil demand growth and nudged lower supply growth forecasts.Looking ahead, highlights include US Weekly/Continuing Claims, Existing Home Sales (Jan), EU Informal Leaders Retreat, Speakers including ECBʼs Lane & Nagel, BoCʼs Rogers, Supply from the US, Earnings from Applied Materials, Arista Networks, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Howmet Aerospace, Coinbase & American Electric Power.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Kragverskaffers mag nie meer elektrisiteit sonder vooraf kennisgewing ontkoppel nie, ingevolge nuwe regulasies van die Elektrisiteitsbeheerraad, die ECB. Dit geld vir alle lisensiehouers, insluitend streekselektrisiteitsverspreiders, munisipaliteite en NamPower. Kliënte moet nou minstens 24 uur kennis gegee word voordat elektrisiteit weens wanbetaling ontkoppel word, en dit mag nie op Vrydae en oor naweke gedoen word nie. Kosmos 94.1 Nuus het met die aktivis Shaun Gariseb van Katutura Residents Rate Payers gepraat, wat sê Stad Windhoek steur hom nie aan die ECB nie.

De prijs van bitcoin blijft deze week steken rond de $67.000. Iets lager dan vorige week, maar geen enorme sprongen. Daarom hebben we het vooral over het nieuws. We hebben een heel scala aan Amerikaanse banken die bullish zijn op bitcoin. Daarnaast dringt de ECB aan op Europese integratie. Bert geeft een andere blik op vermogensaanwasbelasting en Bart zag Michael Saylor zwetend op TV. Veel luisterplezier.Probeer Bitcoin Alpha 2 weken gratis!Satoshi Radio wordt mede mogelijk gemaakt door: Firefish, Watson Law en onze hoofdsponsor Bitvavo.Timestamps(00:00:00) Welkom en Podcast Introductie(00:20:00) Bookmark van Peter: JP Morgan is bullish geworden(00:39:30) Bookmark van Bart: “Refinance where, Michael?”(00:55:00) Bookmark van Bert: Een andere kijk op die aanwasbelasting(01:25:00) Bookmark van Bert: ECB dringt aan op snellere Europese integratie(01:32:00) Bookmark van Bart: Banken blijven bullish op bitcoin(01:45:00) MarktupdateBookmarksBert:Bert over Box 3 bij De Nieuwe WereldFT: “Bitcoin is still about $69,000 too high”FT bitcoin coverage is negative when the price is down and positive when the price is upECB dringt aan op snellere Europese integratieWe're launching with support for x402 using USDC stablecoins on base, with more protocols, payment methods, currencies, and chains to come.Aankondiging CoinbaseThe Block artikelBart:“Refinance where, Michael?”Phong Le tijdens aandeelhoudersvergadering:Binance en Franklin TempletonReverse listing Treasury BV via MKB Nedsense gaat niet doorGOLDMAN SACHS DISCLOSES $1.1B IN BTC, $1B IN ETH, $153M IN XRP AND $108M IN SOL - REPRESENTING A 0.33% CRYPTO ALLOCATION: FILINGDemocrats press SEC's Atkins over dropped crypto cases, Trump industry ties as agency shifts strategyOne Generation Runs the Country. The Next Cashed In on Crypto.Peter:JP Morgan is bullish gewordenDanske Bank gaat bitcoin en ether aanbieden

In the first episode of our new monthly ‘European Edition' we talk about political instability in the UK and its impact on markets. Despite the uncertainties, we still see value in the short end of the UK Gilt curve, also versus the EUR market. We also outline that we see the ECB on hold for the rest of the year despite inflation being below the 2% target and why we think the EUR yield curve steepening is far from over.Peter Schaffrik (Desk Strategy), Head of UK/European Rates & EconomicsCathal Kennedy (Desk Strategy), Senior UK EconomistMegum Muhic (Desk Strategy), UK Rates Strategist* Research Analyst opinions are their published views, independent of those expressed by Desk Analysts

Katya Witney & Lauren Winfield-Hill speak to Australia's Lucy Hamilton about her first season in the WPL, getting a Test call-up and playing the WNCL aged 15. 0:56 Intro/1:36 WPL/9:46 Test call up/13:46 Turning pro and social life/24:16 When Lauren first met Lucy/27:06 Influences growing up/30:56 Quickfire questions ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The Metro Bank Girls in Cricket Fund in collaboration with the ECB aims to triple the number of girls' cricket teams by breaking down barriers and creating supportive and inclusive spaces. Help transform the game, head to https://www.metrobankonline.co.uk/cricket/ to champion the future of girls' cricket. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

China is reportedly considering probing wine from France; could consider launching anti-dumping duty to French wine, and potentially take counter measures against the EU if it adopt duties.European bourses are trading on the backfoot; FTSE 100 outperforms on the back of firmer commodity prices; US equity futures mixed.DXY slightly lower heading into US NFP, JPY continues to gain, AUD bid after RBA's Hauser said inflation is "too high".Fixed income rangebound; Bunds little moved following tepid auction.Crude edges higher as Trump mulls sending another carrier near Iran; Gold rangebound; Base metals rise, led by nickel prices following an cut in output from the world's largest mine.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP (Jan), Japanese PPI (Jan), BoC Minutes (Jan), OPEC MOMR. Speakers include ECB's Schnabel, Fed's Schmid, Bowman & Hammack. Supply from the US. Earnings from T-Mobile, McDonalds, AppLovin, Equinix, Motorola Solutions, Hilton and Kraft Heinz.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded higher but with some of the gains in the region capped after the weak handover from the US and with the NFP report on the horizon, while participants also digested earnings and data in thinned conditions, with Japanese markets shut for a holiday.Ukrainian President Zelensky plans spring elections alongside a referendum on the peace deal after a US push.US President Trump said he might send a second carrier to strike Iran if talks fail and stated that "Either we will make a deal or we will have to do something very tough like last time".European equity futures indicate a quiet cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.1% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.2% on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Wage Tracker, US NFP (Jan), Japanese PPI (Jan), BoC Minutes (Jan), OPEC MOMR. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone & Schnabel, Fed's Schmid, Bowman & Hammack. Supply from Germany & US. Earnings from T-Mobile, McDonalds, AppLovin, Equinix, Motorola Solutions, Hilton, Kraft Heinz, TotalEnergies, Michelin.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The G-10 FX narrative has mainly been dollar- and structurally driven year-to-date, while euro headlines have been sidelined. This could change into 2H as European fiscal stimulus starts to lift the region's economic narrative and validates the ECB-driven relative yield advantage into 2H. In this episode of FX Moment, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief FX Strategist Audrey Childe-Freeman and Constantin Bolz, Head of G-10 FX for UBS's Chief Investment Office, focus on the euro side of the bullish euro-dollar view and how a cautiously optimistic euro macro narrative can be consistent with a euro-dollar break of $1.20. They also present their strongest G-10 FX convictions for the year — on pro-cyclical currencies including the Aussie dollar and the Norwegian krone — and touch on expected Swiss franc and yen fortunes for 2026.

APAC stocks began the week higher after last Friday's rally on Wall St, where the DJIA topped the 50k level for the first time.The Nikkei 225 also hit a fresh record high after PM Takaichi's landslide election victory and supermajority.China is reportedly urging banks to curb US Treasuries exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% after the cash market closed higher by 1.2% on Friday.Highlights include Swiss Consumer Confidence (Jan), Norwegian GDP (Q4), Mexican Inflation (Jan), US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China is reportedly urging banks to curb USTs exposure amid market risk, Bloomberg reports, citing sources; guidance does not apply to China's state holdings of US Treasuries.Japanese PM Takaichi's LDP party won a landslide victory at the snap election on Sunday, securing a super majority; JPY bid, JGBs lower and Nikkei 225 soars.European bourses are broadly firmer, whilst US equity futures move lower; Nikkei 225 soars post-LDP victory.USD hit on China-USTs report, JPY strengthens post-LDP, whilst GBP lags on regional political woes.JGBs set a bearish tone for global fixed income, with USTs also dragged on the China-USTs report; Gilts digest the McSweeney resignation and reports that PM Starmer faces further pressure to resign.WTI and Brent are flat. Precious metals continue to rebound as the PBoC buys gold for a 15th consecutive month.Looking ahead, highlights include US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jan), BoC Market Participants Survey. Speakers include ECB's Lane & Lagarde, Fed's Waller & Bostic, Earnings from Apollo, Becton Dickinson, Loews, On Semiconductor & Cleveland-Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European banks were asked what they thought about corporate credit opportunities in the coming year given that most officials, anyway, in Europe believe everything is picking up. As Christine Lagarde, head of the ECB, is so fond of saying, Europe, European interest rate policy, inflation, the economy, everything is in a good place. Except, the answer the banking sector sent back surprised everyone and is almost certainly going to play a role in market volatility like we've been seeing recently. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider----------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Pete Fitzboydon, former CEO of Sussex County Cricket Club, reveals the stark financial realities facing non-Test hosting counties. With only 7 out of 50-60 annual playing days generating profit, counties survive primarily on ECB funding - approximately £3m of a £5-10m turnover. The conversation explores The Hundred's transformative impact, selling the longer game, and the future shape of English domestic cricket in a franchised world.This episode of the Unofficial Partner podcast is brought to you by Sid Lee Sport.Sid Lee Sport is the fame-making creative and sponsorship agency for brands in sport. Through exceptional creativity, deep sponsorship expertise, and flawless on-site delivery, they help brands, sponsors, and rightsholders unlock their full potential in sport - most recently picking up a Leaders Sports Award for their work with Lidl at UEFA EURO 2024.Everything they do is driven by a culture of effectiveness - because in sport, performance matters. Not just on the pitch, but in the work too.So whether you want to build buzz, connect with audiences, or do something that actually cuts through, Sid Lee Sport knows how.Visit sidleesport.com Sid Lee Sport - where brands become champions.Unofficial Partner is the leading podcast for the business of sport. A mix of entertaining and thought provoking conversations with a who's who of the global industry. To join our community of listeners, sign up to the weekly UP Newsletter and follow us on Twitter and TikTok at @UnofficialPartnerWe publish two podcasts each week, on Tuesday and Friday. These are deep conversations with smart people from inside and outside sport. Our entire back catalogue of 500 sports business conversations are available free of charge here. Each pod is available by searching for ‘Unofficial Partner' on Apple, Spotify and every podcast app. If you're interested in collaborating with Unofficial Partner to create one-off podcasts or series and live events, you can reach us via the website.

In this podcast Francis Diamond, Aditya Chordia and Khagendra Gupta discuss the ECB and BoE monetary policy meetings and implications for rate markets as well as the political noise this week in the UK.   This podcast was recorded on 06 February 2026. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-5193724-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party.

Katya Witney & Lauren Winfield-Hill react to a high-scoring thriller of a WPL final before Katya speaks to Netherlands captain Babette De Leede on her team's qualification for their first ever T20 World Cup. 0:50 Intro/02:06 WPL Final/05:53 Delhi Capitals/08:45 Recovering from WPL final loss/11:55 Lauren Bell/18:44 Social media in women's game/23:32 WPL development this year/26:27 Captain De Leede on leading Netherlands to first ever T20 World Cup The Metro Bank Girls in Cricket Fund in collaboration with the ECB aims to triple the number of girls' cricket teams by breaking down barriers and creating supportive and inclusive spaces. Help transform the game, head to https://www.metrobankonline.co.uk/cri... to champion the future of girls' cricket.

European bourses were initially lower, but now mixed whilst US equity futures are firmer; AMZN -7.7% pre-market.DXY is mildly lower, G10s are broadly firmer across the board with outperformance in the Antipodeans.USTs hold onto recent gains, Bunds digest ECB speak whilst Gilts take a breather.Crude prices dip as US and Iran informal talks enter the second round; Metals pare back earlier losses as high volatility continues.Looking ahead, Canadian Jobs Report (Jan), US Prelim. Michigan (Feb), Speakers include BoEʼs Pill & Fed's Jefferson.Earnings from Under Armour, Philip Morris International.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed after the global market rout rolled over into the region following the continued tech woes stateside and weak US labour market data.US equity futures were lower but off worst levels with headwinds seen after Amazon shares dropped 10% post-earnings.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.8% on Thursday.RBI maintained its Repurchase Rate at 5.25%, as expected, via a unanimous decision and voted to maintain its neutral policy stance; Banxico held rates at 7.00%, as expected, in a unanimous decision.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance (Dec), Swedish CPIF prelim. (Jan), Swiss Unemployment (Jan), Canadian Jobs Report (Jan), US Prelim. Michigan (Feb), ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Speakers include ECB's Cipollone, BoE's Pill & Fed's Jefferson.Earnings from Biogen, Under Armour, Carlyle Group, Philip Morris International, SocGen & Sabadell.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Markets are deep in risk-off mode as crypto winter tightens its grip. The ECB and Bank of England both held rates, with the BoE signaling it may be nearing the end of its easing cycle. UK political turmoil hit the pound, while tech stocks continued to unravel — AMD plunged 17%, Qualcomm disappointed, and Alphabet slid after announcing a massive increase in AI spending. Precious metals saw extreme volatility again, with silver crashing 15%, gold slipping, and oil falling after the U.S. and Iran agreed to hold talks. In macro data, German factory orders surged, but Eurozone retail sales fell, raising concerns about consumer demand. In crypto, Bitcoin dropped to $69,000, pushing the market back into Extreme Fear. Bhutan appears to be selling BTC it has mined since 2019, ETH hovered near $2,000, and scrutiny intensified around Trump-linked World Liberty Financial. CME also hinted it may explore issuing its own token.

European bourses are broadly on the backfoot; US equity futures mixed, but the NQ outperforms, as chip names benefit from Alphabet boosting AI spending.DXY is mildly firmer, with G10s lower to varying degrees; Aussie hampered by pressure in metals, GBP lags into BoE.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed; USTs incrementally firmer, whilst Gilts underperform on political woes.Crude benchmarks slip with US-Iran meeting confirmed, Spot gold moves lower, silver -10.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger (Jan), Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims, Revelio PLS, ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement & MPR, Banxico Announcement, CNB Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, BoC's Macklem & RBA's Bullock.Earnings from Amazon, Strategy, Roblox, Reddit, Bloom Energy, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Barrick Mining, Cigna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Our Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter joins our chief regional economists to discuss the outlook for interest rates in the U.S., Japan and Europe.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And today we're kicking off our quarterly economic roundtable for the year. We're going to try to think about everything that matters in economics around the world. And today we're going to focus a little bit more on central banking. And when we get to tomorrow, we'll focus on the nuts and bolts of the real side of the economy. I'm joined by our chief regional economists. Michael Gapen: Hi, Seth. I'm Mike Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley. Chetan Ahya: I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe economist. Seth Carpenter: It's Thursday, January 22nd at 10 am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4 pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9 pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: So, Mike Gapen, let me start with you as we head into 2026, what are we thinking about? Are we going into a more stable expansion? Is this just a different phase with the same amount of volatility? What do you think is going to be happening in the U.S. as a baseline outlook? And then if we're going to be wrong, which direction would we be wrong? Michael Gapen: Yeah, Seth, we took the view that we would have more policy certainty. Recent weeks have maybe suggested we're incorrect on that front. But I still believe that when it comes to deregulation, immigration policy and fiscal policy, we have much more clarity there than we did a year ago. So, I think it's another year of modest growth, above trend growth. We're forecasting something around 2.4 percent for 2026. That's about where we finished 2025. I think what's key for markets and the outlook overall will be whether inflation comes down. Firms are still passing through tariffs to the consumer. We think that'll happen at least through the end of the first quarter. It's our view that after that, inflation pressures will start to diminish. If that's the case, then we think the Fed can execute one or two more rate cuts. But we have those coming [in] the second half of the year. So, it looks like growth is strong enough. The labor market has stabilized enough for the Fed to wait and see, to look around, see the effects of their prior rate cuts, and then push policy closer to neutral if inflation comes down. Seth Carpenter: And if we go back to last year to 2025, I will give you the credit first. Morgan Stanley did not shift its forecast for recession in the U.S. the way some of our main competitors did. On the other hand, and this is where I maybe tweak you just a little bit. We underestimated how much growth there would be in the United States. CapEx spending from AI firms was strong. Consumer spending, especially from the top half of the income distribution in the U.S. was strong. Growth overall for the year was over 2 percent, close to 2.5 percent. So, if that's what we just came off of, why isn't it the case that we'd see even stronger growth? Maybe even a re-acceleration of growth in 2026? Michael Gapen: Well, some of that, say, improvement vis-à-vis our forecast, the outperformance. Some of that I think comes mechanically from trade and inventory variability. So, . I'm not sure that that says a lot about an improving trend rate of growth. Where there was other outperformance was, as you noted, from the consumer. Now our models, and I don't mean to get too technical here, but our model suggests that consumption is overshooting its fundamentals. Which I think makes it harder for the economy to accelerate further. And then AI; it's harder for AI spending to say get incrementally stronger than where it is. So, we're getting a little extra boost from fiscal. We've got that coming through. And I just think what it is, is more of the same rather than further acceleration from here. Seth Carpenter: Do you think there's a chance that the Fed in fact does not cut rates like you have in your forecast? Michael Gapen: Yes, I do think... Where we could be wrong is we've made assumptions around the One Big Beautiful Bill and what it will contribute to the economy. But as you know, there's a lot of variability around those estimates. If the bill is more catalytic to animal spirits and business spending than we've assumed, you could get, say, a demand driven animal spirits upside to the economy, which may mean inflation doesn't decelerate all that much. But I do think that that's, say, the main upside risk that we're considering. Markets have been gradually taking out probabilities of Fed cuts as growth has come in stronger. So far, the inflation data has been positive in terms of signaling about disinflation, but I would say the jury's still out on how much that continues. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, When I think about Japan, we know that it's been the developed market central bank that's been going in the opposite direction. They've been hiking when other central banks have been cutting. We got some news recently that probably put some risk into our baseline outlook that we published in our year ahead view about both growth and inflation in Japan. And with it what the Bank of Japan is going to do in terms of its normalization. Can you just walk us through a little bit about our outlook for Japan? Because right now I think that the yen, Japanese rates, they're all part of the ongoing market narrative around the world. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, look, I mean, on a big picture basis, we are constructive on the Japan macro-outlook. We think normal GDP growth remains strong. We are expecting to see the transition for the consumers from them seeing, you know, supply side inflation. Keeping their real wage growth low to a dynamic where we transition to real wage growth accelerating. That supports real consumption growth, and we move away from that supply side driven inflation to demand side driven inflation. So broadly we are constructive, but I think in the backdrop, what we are seeing on currency depreciation is making things a bit more challenging for the BOJ. While we are expecting that demand side pressure to build up and drive inflation, in the trailing data, it is still pretty much currency depreciation and supply side factors like food inflation driving inflation. And so, BOJ has been hesitant. So, while we had the expectation that BOJ will hike in January of 2027, we do see the risk that they may have to take up rate hike earlier to manage the currency not getting out of hand and adding on to the inflation pressures. Seth Carpenter Would I be right in saying that up until now, the yen has swung pretty widely in both directions. But the weakening of the yen until now hasn't been really the key driver of the Bank of Japan's policy reaction. It's been growth picking up, inflation picking up, wanting to get out of negative interest rates first, wanting to get away from the zero lower bounds. Second, the weaker yen in some sense could have actually been seen as a positive up until now because Japan did go through 25 years of essentially stagnant nominal growth. Is this actually that much of a fundamental change in the Bank of Japan's thinking – needing to react to the weakness of the yen? Chetan Ahya: Broadly what you're saying is right, Seth, but there is also a threshold of where the currency can be. And beyond a point, it begins to hurt the households in form of imported inflation pressures. And remember that inflation has been somewhat high, even if it is driven by currency depreciation and supply side factors for some time. And so, BOJ has to be watchful of potential lift in inflation expectations for the households. And at the same time, they are also watching the underlying inflation impact of this currency depreciation – because what we have seen is that over period workers have been demanding for higher wages. And that is also influenced by what happens to headline inflation, which is driven by currency depreciation. So, I would say that, yes, it's been true up until now. But, when currency reaches these very high levels of range, you are going to see BOJ having to act. Seth Carpenter: Jens, let's shift then to Europe. The ECB had been on a cutting cycle. They came to the end of that. President Lagarde said that she thought the disinflationary process had ended. In your year ahead forecast and a bunch of your writing recently, you've said maybe not so fast. There could still be some more disinflationary, at least risk, in the pipeline for Europe. Can you talk a little bit about what's going on in terms of European inflation and what it could mean for the European Central Bank? Because clearly that's going to be first order important for markets.Jens Eisenschmidt: I think that is right. I think we have a crucial inflation print ahead of us that comes out on the 4th of February. So, early February we get some signal, whether our anticipated fall of headline inflation here below the ECB's target is actually materializing. We think the chances for this are pretty good. There's a mix why this is happening. One is energy. Energy disinflation and base effects. But the other thing is services inflation resets always at the beginning of the year. January and February are the crucial month here. We had significant services upward pressure on prices the last years. And so just from base effects, we think we will see less of that. Another picture or another element of that picture is that wage disinflation is proceeding nicely. We have notably a significant weakness in the export-oriented manufacturing sector in Germany, which is a key sector of setting wages for the country. The country is around 30 percent of the euro area GDP. And here we had seen significant wage gains over the last year. So, the disinflationary trend coming from lower wage gains from this country, that will be very important. And an important signal to watch. Again, that's something we don't know. I think soon we have to watch simply monthly prints here. But a significant print for the first quarter comes out in May, and all of that together makes us believe that the ECB will be in a position to see enough data or have seen enough data that confirms the thesis of inflation staying below target for some time to come. So that they can cut in June and September to a terminal rate of 1.5 percent. Seth Carpenter: That is, I would say, out of consensus relative where the market is. When you talk to investors, whether they're in Europe or around the world, what's the big pushback that you get from them when you are explaining your view on how the ECB is going to act? Jens Eisenschmidt: There are two essential pushbacks. So, one is on substance. So, 'No, actually wages will not come down, and the economy will actually start overheating soon because of the big fiscal stimulus.' That, in a nutshell is the pushback on substance. I would say here, as you would say before, not so fast. Because the fiscal stimulus is only in one country. It's 30 percent. But only 30 percent of the euro area.Plus, there is another pushback, which is on the reaction function of the ECB. Here we tend to agree. So far, we have heard from policy makers that they feel rather comfortable with the 2 percent rate level that they're at. But we think that discussion will change. The moment you are below target in an actual inflation print; the burden of proof is the opposite. Now you have to prove: Is the economy really on a track that inflation will get back up to target without further monetary stimulus? We believe that will be the key debate. And again, happy to, sort of, concede that there is for now not a lot of signaling out of the ECB that further rate cuts are coming. But we believe the first inflation print of the year will change that debate significantly. Seth Carpenter: Alright, so that makes a lot of sense. However, looking at the clock, we are probably out of time for today. So, for now, Michael, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And to the listener, thanks for listening. And be sure to tune in tomorrow for part two of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.