Podcasts about Eurozone

As the ECB cuts interest rates again, it would take a “wait and see” approach on whether planned tariffs trigger inflation across the Eurozone.With gold prices hitting a new record high — how do you actually go about buying the precious metal?And in the age of AI, could the person you're interviewing for a job not be real? Roger Hearing explores the growing threat of deepfake job applicants.

Schmitt, Alexander www.deutschlandfunk.de, Informationen am Abend

Schmitt, Alexander www.deutschlandfunk.de, Informationen am Abend

S&P Futures are moving higher mainly due to optimism on tariff exemptions. The Trump tariff narrative remain the key focus as the White House indicates that that it is looking to help the auto sector. Pharma & semiconductor stocks are on watch as they are under review by the Trump tariff team. China has suspended jet deliveries from Boeing in retaliatory move. U.S. trade officials met with EU's trade representative yesterday, the demands from the Trump administration will be difficult for the Eurozone to agree to. Mining stocks are displaying gains due to a report that indicates President Trump has plans to stockpile critical metals to counter China. On the economic calendar today are reports on Import Exports prices and the Empire state Manufactuing index. JNJ, BACPNC & ERIC are higher after earnings announcements. Caterpillar named a new CEO.

Australian James Aitken is the Founder and Managing Partner of Aitken Advisors, a one-man macroeconomic consultancy based in Wimbledon, England that works with approximately one hundred of the most influential pools of capital in the world. James started his career in 1992 as a foreign exchange trader, moved to London in May 1999, and in March 2002 joined the infamous AIG Financial Products team in London. In August 2006 he joined UBS, where he deployed his knowledge of the inner workings of the financial system to help his institutional investor clients successfully navigate their portfolios through 2007 and 2008. At the urging of his clients, James established his own firm in June 2009. Our conversation covers James' perspective on the Global Financial Crisis from his seat at its epicenter, the Eurozone crisis in 2011, subsequent process-driven opportunities in Greece, views on Central Banks in the US, China, & Europe, some brief observations on India, positioning for the current environment, and what makes a great macro manager.   Learn More  Follow Ted on Twitter at @tseides or LinkedIn  Subscribe to the mailing list  Access Transcript with Premium Membership 

Im heutigen Podcast zeige ich dir mein Depot und teile meine Zukunftsaussichten in der Eurozone mit dir. Vereinbare jetzt dein kostenfreies Strategiegespräch: https://jensrabe.de/Q2Termin25 Aktien kann Jeder - jetzt testen: https://jensrabe.de/YTAKJ Optionen kann Jeder - jetzt testen: https://jensrabe.de/YTOKJ ALLE Bücher von Jens Rabe: https://jensrabe.de/buecherYT Nur für kurze Zeit. Solange der Vorrat reicht. Schau auf meinem Social Media-Kanälen vorbei: Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/jensrabe_official X - https://twitter.com/jensrabe_ Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/rabeacademy TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@jensrabeacademy Börsen-News https://jensrabe.de/Q2NewsYT25

Wall Street ended the rollercoaster week of last week in the green on Friday after possibly the most volatile week in NYSE history as investors responded live to Trumps tariff updates as they were announced. The Dow Jones rose 1.56%, the S&P500 rose 1.81% and the Nasdaq ended the last trading session of the week up 2.06%. The rise in investor optimism on Friday was due to the White House remaining optimistic a deal on tariffs would be done with China. Let's hope for some more clarity and calm on global markets this week.In Europe on Friday markets in the region closed mostly lower to round off a choppy week for stocks in the Eurozone. The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany's DAX fell 0.9%, the French CAC dropped 0.3%, and, in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day up 0.64%.Across the Asia region on Friday markets closed mixed as investors assessed escalating trade wars with the US. Japan's Nikkei lost almost 3%, South Korea's Kospi index fell 0.5%, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.13% and China's CSI index ended the day up 0.41%.Locally on Friday the ASX200 fell 0.82% with every sector aside from consumer discretionary stocks ending the day in the red, with healthcare taking the biggest hit amid Trump's latest tariff announcement on producers in the sector. For the week, the ASX200 lost just 0.28% despite the extreme highs and lows of the trading week.What to watch today:Gold miners rallied last week as the price of the precious commodity topped US$3200/ounce for the first time later in the week.On the commodities front this morning oil is trading 2.38% higher at US$61.50/barrel, gold is up 1.5% at US$3236.55/ounce and iron ore is up just 0.06% at US$99.95/tonne.The Aussie dollar has slightly improved against most currencies to buy 62.86 US cents, 90.64 Japanese Yen, 49.03 British Pence and 1 New Zealand dollar and 8 cents.Ahead of Monday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.23%.This week will be interesting on the tariffs front as we ended last week with Trump raising total tariffs on China to 145% but backtracked on electronics and certain imports that support large caps like Apple.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has downgraded the rating on Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) from a hold to a sell as the analyst believes valuation has been overextended and the current share price prices in optimistic expectations. The analyst still believes Lynas is a high-quality business with viable growth options and a strong management team.Trading Central has identified a bullish signal on Waypoint REIT (ASX:WPR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 90-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price will rise from the close of $2.50 to the range of $2.65 to $2.69 according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Once again, Germany is preparing to celebrate the world's worst vegetable as Spargelzeit begins in earnest across the 16 Bundesländer, and two thirds of the podcast are delighted to see it's return. What does 2025 have in store for Spargel lovers, and where will Simon get his regular Spargeleis? The current international economic turmoil caused by US government tarifs leads us back to the question of boycotting US products, which is really only one of many problems Simon seems to be facing on his weekly shop, the other being his fellow early bird customers.Perhaps what we all need is a bit of luck, but it seems all the luck is going elsewhere at the moment, as we discuss an especially fortunate young 8-year-old child who discovered €15,000 while digging a hole at their Kindergarten. With money in the air, we finish with some suggestions for new designs as the EU updates the Eurozone's bank notes.Theme tune courtesy of Kloß mit SoßThe current international economic turmoil caused by US government tarifs leads us back to the question of boycotting US products, which is really only one of many problems Simon seems to be facing on his weekly shop, the other being his fellow early bird customers.Perhaps what we all need is a bit of luck, but it seems all the luck is going elsewhere at the moment, as we discuss an especially fortunate young 8-year-old child who discovered €15,000 while digging a hole at their Kindergarten. With money in the air, we finish things off with some suggestions for designs as the EU looks to update the Eurozone's bank notes.Theme tune courtesy of Kloß mit Soß

Wenn sich die EZB-Ratsmitglieder am Donnerstag zu ihrer nächsten Sitzung treffen, stehen sie vor einer schwierigen Gemengelage. US-Präsident Donald Trump hat zwar die zunächst angedrohten hohen Zölle vorübergehend pausiert, doch nach wie vor bleibt ein Zollsatz von 10% – spätere Erhöhungen nicht ausgeschlossen. Die Zolldebatte wird auch Einfluss auf die Entscheidungen der EZB-Ratsmitglieder haben, denn die Effekte von Zöllen können in beide Richtungen wirken, erklärt Martin Pirkl, währungspolitischer Korrespondent der Börsen-Zeitung, im Podcast 7TageMärkte. Die Ratsmitglieder müssten nun entscheiden, ob die inflationären Effekte der Zölle überwiegen werden oder die deflationären. „Davon dürfte dann auch wesentlich abhängen, ob wir eine Zinssenkung oder doch eine Zinspause erleben werden“, sagt Pirkl. Das Inflationsziel von 2% in der Eurozone war zuletzt in Sicht gekommen, im März fiel die Inflation auf 2,2%. Auch die zuletzt monatelang hohe Dienstleistungsinflation geht zurück. „Eigentlich ist die EZB auf einem sehr guten Weg, ihr Inflationsziel zu erreichen – noch in diesem Jahr. Die Frage ist eben, ob die Zölle jetzt dazwischenfunken werden“, sagt Pirkl. Welche Inflationstreiber durch Zölle verstärkt werden und welche gegenläufigen Effekte es geben kann, erklärt er diese Woche im Podcast 7TageMärkte. Zudem gibt es im Podcast einen Rückblick auf die jüngsten Debatten zu Managementgehältern auf der Telekom-Hauptversammlung, eine Vorschau auf die Quartalsbilanzen von Goldman Sachs und Beiersdorf sowie die Übersicht über die Themen und Termine der Kalenderwoche 16.

Die Themen im heutigen Versicherungsfunk Update sind: Koalition vertagt Rentenreform auf 2029 CDU/CSU und SPD wollen das Rentenniveau bis 2031 gesetzlich bei 48 % sichern – eine echte Reform ist nicht geplant. Erst 2029 soll evaluiert werden, ob Handlungsbedarf besteht. DIA-Sprecher Klaus Morgenstern kritisiert das Vorgehen als „faulen Kompromiss“. Der demografische Faktor bleibt bis dahin faktisch wirkungslos. Versicherer setzen auf Aktien und Private Markets Laut der Schroders Global Investor Insights Survey planen 56 % der Versicherer weltweit, ihre Aktienquote in den kommenden zwei Jahren zu erhöhen – vor allem durch aktive Strategien. Auch Private Markets gewinnen stark an Bedeutung: 95 % der Befragten wollen künftig investieren, ein Drittel sieht das größte Potenzial in Private Debt. Renditeziel vor Kapitalquote, so der Tenor. Versicherungskammer vs. Bayerische: Freundschaftsspiel statt Fassadenduell Nach einem „TSV 1860“-Graffiti an der Zentrale der Versicherungskammer Bayern nimmt die Bayerische die Steilvorlage sportlich – und fordert die Kolleginnen und Kollegen zum Freundschaftsspiel auf dem Trainingsplatz der Löwen heraus. Der Ball liegt nun bei der Versicherungskammer: Wird es bald zum ersten „Versicherungs-Derby Münchens“ kommen? Bauzinsen pendeln bei 3,3 % – EZB-Senkung rückt näher Die Bestzinsen für Baufinanzierungen bewegen sich im April weiter um 3,3 %. Die Inflation in der Eurozone liegt bei 2,2 % – ein Wert, der Spekulationen über Zinssenkungen der EZB neuen Auftrieb gibt. Laut Qualitypool-Geschäftsführer Antonio Skoro rechnen Marktteilnehmer mit ersten Schritten bereits im April. Zusätzliche Unsicherheit bringt Trumps Handelspolitik – mit Auswirkungen auf Zinsen und Anleihen. Flossbach von Storch wird Fördermitglied im AfW Seit dem 1. April 2025 unterstützt Flossbach von Storch als Fördermitglied die Arbeit des AfW Bundesverbands Finanzdienstleistung. Der Investment-Manager betont die Bedeutung privater Altersvorsorge und möchte gemeinsam mit dem AfW die Finanzbildung und den freien Vertrieb stärken. Provinzial Konzern startet Wettbewerb zur Flächenentsiegelung Mit der Aktion „Bodenluft“ setzt sich der Provinzial Konzern für einen lebendigeren und klimafreundlicheren Lebensraum in den Geschäftsgebieten seiner Regionalversicherer ein. Unter dem Motto "Steine raus. Natur rein." ruft der Entsiegelungs-Wettbewerb ab heute Bürgerinnen und Bürger sowie Kommunen und Unternehmen dazu auf, versiegelte Flächen aufzubrechen und der Natur wieder Raum zu geben. Um den Einsatz der Teilnehmenden zu belohnen, warten attraktive Preise.

Welcome to the latest edition of Liquidity Link Live, your exclusive market analysis provided by Northern Trust Asset Management, one of the world's largest cash managers. Tune in each month to discover the very latest insights on the UK, Eurozone and US markets. This edition was recorded on the 4th April 2025.

Wall Street started the new trading week mostly in the red as investors piled out of equities for a third straight session after President Trump threatened even higher tariffs against China on Monday. Trading volume hit the highest level in 18 years yesterday with markets trading around 29 billion shares. The Dow Jones fell 0.91% on Monday, the S&P500 shed 0.23% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day up 0.1%.In Europe overnight, markets in the region started the new trading week lower as investors continue to fear the global fall out of Trump's Tariffs and implications on economic activity in the Eurozone. The STOXX 600 tumbled 4.54%, Germany's DAX lost 4.26%, the French CAC plummeted 4.8%, and in the UK, the FTSE100 ended the day down 4.4%.Asia markets started the week with another sea of red as global trade war fears escalate following China's reciprocal tariff announcement on Friday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng plummeted 13.22%, China's CSI index fell 7.05%, Japan's Nikkei tumbled 7.83% and South Korea's Kospi index ended the day down 5.57%.Locally on Monday, the ASX200 tanked over 4% to post the biggest loss in 5-years after China retaliated with tariffs on US goods, escalating the global trade war and tensions on a global scale.Abacus Storage King was among the only winners on Monday with a rally over 20% after its majority investor Ki Corporation and NYSE-listed Public Storage lobbed a proposal to buy the remaining stake for $1.47 a share.Market heavyweights tanked yesterday, with CBA diving over 6%, so too did BHP and other miners as the price of iron ore slumped on global trade and demand concerns.What to watch today:Ahead of Tuesday's trading session here in Australia the SPI futures are anticipating the ASX will open the day up 0.75% to recover some of the heavy losses experienced in recent days.On the commodities front this morning, the sea of red continues with oil trading 1.12% lower at US$61.29/barrel, gold is down 1.65% at US$2987/ounce and iron ore is down 1.5% at US$102.64/tonne.The Aussie dollar has further weakened against the USD overnight to buy US$0.59, 88.67 Japanese Yen, 47.08 British Pence and NZ$1.08.Trading Ideas:Bell Potter has initiated coverage of Trajan Group (ASX:TRJ) with a buy rating and a 12-month price target of $1.50 on the global developer of scientific measurement devices as the analyst sees the company is returning to growth. The analyst sees Trajan Group as offering deep value given it is trading at a 47% discount to close peer Tecan and a 60^ discount to major US peers.And Trading Central has identified a bearish signal on EBR Systems (ASX:EBR) following the formation of a pattern over a period of 52-days which is roughly the same amount of time the share price may fall from the close of $1.39 to the range of 75 to 85cps according to standard principles of technical analysis.

Maar wat daarna komt, gaat de beursweek maken of breken. Die beursweek zit er alweer aan te komen namelijk. Met daarin speciale aandacht voor de eigen economie. Want je krijgt inflatiecijfers uit Nederland, en uit de eurozone. En wil je een aandeel in de gaten houden, dan is Nintendo een aanraden. Beleggers waren tot nu toe nog niet enthousiast over de nieuwe spelcomputer, de Switch 2. Maar nu kan die voor het eerst getest worden. Maar extra speciale aandacht is er dus voor Donald Trump. Want het is zover! Zijn 'Liberation Day' komt eraan. En dan gaat het pas écht los, denkt Bob Homan van ING Investment Office. In Beurs in Zicht stomen we je klaar voor de beursweek die je tegemoet gaat. Want soms zie je door de beursbomen het beursbos niet meer. Dat is verleden tijd! Iedere week vertelt een vriend van de show waar jouw focus moet liggen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maar wat daarna komt, gaat de beursweek maken of breken. Die beursweek zit er alweer aan te komen namelijk. Met daarin speciale aandacht voor de eigen economie. Want je krijgt inflatiecijfers uit Nederland, en uit de eurozone. En wil je een aandeel in de gaten houden, dan is Nintendo een aanraden. Beleggers waren tot nu toe nog niet enthousiast over de nieuwe spelcomputer, de Switch 2. Maar nu kan die voor het eerst getest worden. Maar extra speciale aandacht is er dus voor Donald Trump. Want het is zover! Zijn 'Liberation Day' komt eraan. En dan gaat het pas écht los, denkt Bob Homan van ING Investment Office. In Beurs in Zicht stomen we je klaar voor de beursweek die je tegemoet gaat. Want soms zie je door de beursbomen het beursbos niet meer. Dat is verleden tijd! Iedere week vertelt een vriend van de show waar jouw focus moet liggen.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Maar wat daarna komt, gaat de beursweek maken of breken. Die beursweek zit er alweer aan te komen namelijk. Met daarin speciale aandacht voor de eigen economie. Want je krijgt inflatiecijfers uit Nederland, en uit de eurozone. En wil je een aandeel in de gaten houden, dan is Nintendo een aanraden. Beleggers waren tot nu toe nog niet enthousiast over de nieuwe spelcomputer, de Switch 2. Maar nu kan die voor het eerst getest worden. Maar extra speciale aandacht is er dus voor Donald Trump. Want het is zover! Zijn 'Liberation Day' komt eraan. En dan gaat het pas écht los, denkt Bob Homan van ING Investment Office.

Send us a textUS jobs report might show DOGE impact on labour market. Trump's reciprocal tariffs could spur more chaos. Eurozone inflation will be vital for ECB bets as April cut uncertain. RBA to likely hold rates.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

In this podcast, Edmund Shing, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses the risks to the American stock market from shifting foreign investor flows.Foreign investors have significantly increased their holdings in US financial assets, totaling 10 trillion dollars between 2020 and 2024, with European investors holding 49% of these assets.The S&P 500 is currently expensive at 20x forward PE compared with its long-term average of 16x, while the eurozone and Japan markets are fairly valued or cheap.There is a “double whammy” risk for US equities as foreign investors may reduce exposure due to under-performance, high valuations and a weakening US dollar, potentially leading to further derating and currency losses.We prefer US stock exposure via the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, along with rebalancing towards international stocks in the UK, eurozone, Japan, and possibly China.Hosted by Ausha. See ausha.co/privacy-policy for more information.

Strap in as NASDAQ's Michael Normyle and IBKR's Jeff Praz take you “DAX to the Future,” breaking down Europe's market rally in 2025. From rate cuts to defense booms, discover what's powering the Eurozone's warp-speed momentum.

Het was al even geleden. Tien jaar zelfs. Toen brak voor het laatste de beurswaarde van een bank in de eurozone door de grens van 100 miljard euro. En het is dezelfde bank als toen: het Spaanse Santander. Maar Santander is niet de enige bank die de laatste maanden succes heeft op de beurs. Want ook andere Europese banken - waaronder ons eigen ING - worden geprezen door beleggers. Maar is die liefde terecht? Of raken beleggers een beetje té opgewonden? Dat vertellen we je in deze aflevering. En dan hebben we het ook over een knallende ruzie in de chipsector, tussen chip-ontwerpers Qualcomm en Arm. Technisch verhaal: Qualcomm gebruikt een licentie van Arm waar het niet zelf voor heeft betaald, maar die het met een overname heeft bemachtigd. En nu wil Arm alsnog geld zien. Qualcomm weigert niet al te vriendelijk en gaat nu klikken bij maar liefst drie toezichthouders over het machtsspel van Arm. Geen zorgen, je hoort ook nog makkelijkere materie. Zoals het nieuwe plan van GameStop. Dat werd ooit van de ondergang gered door beleggende fans. Dat geld van die fans wordt nu niet geïnvesteerd in een nieuw plan om winst te maken, maar in Bitcoin. Een strategie waarvan ook de CEO zelf zegt dat hij niet weet of het gaat werken.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Het was al even geleden. Tien jaar zelfs. Toen brak voor het laatste de beurswaarde van een bank in de eurozone door de grens van 100 miljard euro. En het is dezelfde bank als toen: het Spaanse Santander. Maar Santander is niet de enige bank die de laatste maanden succes heeft op de beurs. Want ook andere Europese banken - waaronder ons eigen ING - worden geprezen door beleggers. Maar is die liefde terecht? Of raken beleggers een beetje té opgewonden? Dat vertellen we je in deze aflevering. En dan hebben we het ook over een knallende ruzie in de chipsector, tussen chip-ontwerpers Qualcomm en Arm. Technisch verhaal: Qualcomm gebruikt een licentie van Arm waar het niet zelf voor heeft betaald, maar die het met een overname heeft bemachtigd. En nu wil Arm alsnog geld zien. Qualcomm weigert niet al te vriendelijk en gaat nu klikken bij maar liefst drie toezichthouders over het machtsspel van Arm. Geen zorgen, je hoort ook nog makkelijkere materie. Zoals het nieuwe plan van GameStop. Dat werd ooit van de ondergang gered door beleggende fans. Dat geld van die fans wordt nu niet geïnvesteerd in een nieuw plan om winst te maken, maar in Bitcoin. Een strategie waarvan ook de CEO zelf zegt dat hij niet weet of het gaat werken.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

AIB's Senior Economist John Fahey and AIB Treasury's Jane Kavanagh discuss the latest global market updates including:Interest rate expectations from Central Banks Tariff and trade policy impacts on the DollarEuro boosted by Eurozone news flowThe resilience of SterlingVisit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2

Plus, Turkey detains Istanbul's mayor and main rival of President Erdogan. Inflation in the Eurozone cooled more than expected in February. And what to watch for in Federal Reserve's Chair Jerome Powell's comments after the Fed's rates decision. Alex Ossola hosts.   Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Michelle Gibley says Europe could be the sweet spot for investors looking for growth outside the U.S. With cheap valuations and earnings estimates being revised higher, Michelle says the Eurozone will benefit from a potential shift in asset allocation away from U.S. stocks. Germany's plan for a massive fiscal stimulus serves as a game-changer for the region as European defense names are outperforming their U.S. peers.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Welcome to the latest edition of Liquidity Link Live, your exclusive market analysis provided by Northern Trust Asset Management, one of the world's largest cash managers. Tune in each month to discover the very latest insights on the UK, Eurozone and US markets. This edition was recorded on the 5th March 2025.

Listen now to the podcast from the Asset Management and Investors Council (AMIC), ICMA's dedicated forum advocating the interests of buy-side members, including asset managers, institutional investors, private banks, pension funds, and insurance companies, among others. Returning for this episode are industry experts, Bob Parker, former Chairman of AMIC and Senior Adviser to ICMA, alongside Massimiliano Castelli, PhD MSc, Managing Director and Head of Strategy & Advice at UBS Asset Management, who also serves as the Co-Chair of the AMIC Executive Committee. In this podcast, recorded on 25th February 2025, the team discussed: Following the general election result in Germany, what is the outlook for the German economy, and what is the knock-on effect for the Eurozone and the ECB . Update on US economic policy under the new Trump administration. Government and Fed policy. What's changed in China? In the near term what do you see as the major risk factors to capital markets, and what about potential market volatility. If you have questions or topics that you would like our guests to address in future episodes, please feel free to get in contact via email: AMIC@icmagroup.org. Learn more about AMIC: https://www.icmagroup.org/market-practice-and-regulatory-policy/asset-management/

Our U.S. Public Policy and Currency analysts, Ariana Salvatore and Andrew Watrous, discuss why the dollar fell at the beginning of the first Trump administration and whether it could happen again this year. ----- Transcript ----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Public Policy Strategist.Andrew Watrous: And I'm Andrew Watrous, G10 FX Strategist here at Morgan Stanley.Ariana Salvatore: Today, we'll focus on the U.S. dollar and how it might fare in global markets during the first year of the new Trump administration.It's Tuesday, March 4th at 10am in New York.So, Andrew, a few weeks ago, James Lord came on to talk about the foreign exchange volatility. Since then, tariffs and trade policy have been in the news. Last night at midnight, 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada went into effect, in addition to 10 percent on China. So, let's set the scene for today's conversation. Is the dollar still dominant in global currency markets?Andrew Watrous: Yes, it is. The U.S. dollar is used in about $7 trillion worth of daily FX transactions. And the dollar's share of all currency transactions has been pretty stable over the last few decades. And something like 80 percent of all trade finance is invoiced in dollars, and that share has been pretty stable too.A big part of that dollar dominance is because of the depth and safety of the Treasury security market.Ariana Salvatore: That makes sense. And the dollar fell in 2017, the first year of the Trump administration. Why did that happen?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, so 2017 gets a lot of client attention because the Fed was hiking, there was a lot of uncertainty about would happen in NAFTA, and the U.S. passed a fiscally expansionary budget bill that year.So, people have asked us, ‘Why the U.S. dollar went down despite all those factors?' And I think there are three reasons. One is that even though the possibility that the U.S. could leave NAFTA was all over the headlines that year, U.S. tariffs didn't actually go up. Another factor is that global growth turned out to be really strong in 2017, and that was helped in part by fiscal policy in China and Europe. And finally, there were some political risks in Europe that didn't end up materializing.So, investors took a sigh of relief about the possibility that I think had been priced in a bit that the Eurozone might break up. And then a lot of those factors went into reverse in 2018 and the U.S. dollar went up.Ariana Salvatore: So, applying that framework with those factors to today, is it possible that we see a repeat of 2017 in terms of the U.S. dollar decline?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, I think it's likely that the U.S. dollar continues to go lower for some of the same reasons as we saw in 2017. So, I think that compared to 2017, there's a lot more U.S. dollar positive risk premium around trade policy. So, the bar is higher for the U.S. dollar to go up just from trade headlines alone.And just like in 2017, European policy developments could be a tailwind to the euro. We've been highlighting the potential for German fiscal expansion as European defense policy comes into focus. And unlike in 2017, when the Fed was raising rates, now the Fed is probably going to cut more this year. So that's a headwind to the dollar that didn't exist back in 2017.So, on trade, Ariana. What developments do you expect? Do you think that Trump's new policies will make 2025 different in any way from 2017?Ariana Salvatore: So, taking a step back and looking at this from a very high level, a few things are different in spite of the fact that we're actually talking about a lot of similar policies. Tariffs and tax policy were a big focus in 2017 to 2019, and to be sure, this time around, they are too, but in a slightly different way.So, for example, on tax cuts, we're not talking about bringing rates lower on the individual and corporate side. We're talking about extending current policy. And on tariffs and trade policy, this round I would characterize as much broader, right? So, Trump has scoped in a broader range of trading partners into the discussion like Mexico and Canada; and is talking about a starting point that level-wise is much higher than what we saw in the whole 2018 2019 trade friction period.The highest rate back then we ever saw was 25 percent, and that was on the final batch of Chinese goods, that list four. Whereas this time, we're talking about 25 percent as a starting point for Mexico and Canada.I think sequencing is also a really important distinction. In 2017, we saw the tax cuts through the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) come first, followed by trade tensions in 2018 to 2019. This time around, it's really the inverse. Republicans just passed their budget resolution in the House. That lays the groundwork for the tax cut extensions.But in the meantime, Trump has been talking about tariff implementation since before he was even elected. And we've already had a number of really key trade related catalysts in the just six weeks or so that he's been in office.Andrew Watrous: So, you mentioned expectations for fiscal policy. What are recent developments there, and what do you think will happen with U.S. fiscal?Ariana Salvatore: I mentioned the budget resolution in the house that was passed last week. And you can really think of that as the starting point for the reconciliation process to kick off. And consequently, the extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.To be clear, we think that House Republicans will be able to align behind extending most of the expiring Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, but that's still in the books until the end of 2025. So, we see many months needed to kind of build this consensus among cohorts of the Republican caucus in Congress, and we already know there's some key sticking points in the discussion.What happens with the SALT [State and Local Tax] cap? What sort of clawbacks occur with the Inflation Reduction Act? All these are disagreements that right now are going to need time to work their way through Congress. So not a lot of alignment just yet. We think it's going to take most of the year to get there.But ultimately, we do see an extension of most of the TCJA, which is like I said, current law until the end of 2025.But Andrew from what I understand when it comes to fiscal policy, there are really two stages in terms of the market impact that we saw in the last administration. Can you walk us through those?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, so one lesson from 2016 to 2018 is that there were really two stages of when fiscal developments boosted the dollar. The first was right after the U.S. election in 2016, and the second was much later after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed. So right after the 2016 election, within a couple of weeks, the dollar index rallied from 98 up to 103, and 10-year Treasury yields rose as well.And then things sort of moved sideways in between these two stages. Ten-year Treasury yield just moved sideways. Fiscal wasn't as supportive to the U.S. dollar. And as we know, the dollar went down. And then we had the second stage more than a year later. So, the TCJA was passed in December 2017. And then the dollar rallied after that along with the rise in Treasury yield.So, we think that now, what we've seen is actually very similar to what happened in 2017, where the dollar and yields moved a lot after the 2024 election; but now the budget reconciliation process probably won't be a tailwind to the dollar until after a tax cuts extension passes Congress. And as you mentioned, that's not going to be for many, many months. So, in the interim, we think there's a lot of room for the dollar to go down.Ariana Salvatore: And just to level set our expectations there to your point, it is probably going to be later this year. House Republicans have to align on a number of key sticking points. So, we have passage somewhere on the third or fourth quarter of 2025.But when we think about the fiscal picture, aside from the deficit and the macro impacts, a really key component is going to be what these tax changes mean for the equity market. The extension of certain tax policies will matter more for certain sectors versus others. For example, we know that extending some of the corporate provisions, aside from the lower rate, will have an impact across domestically oriented industries like industrials, healthcare, and telecom.But Andrew, to bring it back to this discussion, I want to think a little bit more about how we can loop in our expectations for the equity market and map that to certain dollar outcomes. How do you think that this as a barometer has changed, if at all, from Trump's first term?Andrew Watrous: Yeah, currency strategists like me love talking about yield differentials. But from 2016 to 2018, the U.S. dollar did not trade in line with yield differentials. Instead, in the initial years of President Trump's first term, equities were a much better barometer than interest rates for where the U.S. dollar would go.After President Trump was elected in 2016, U.S. stocks really outperformed stocks in the rest of the world, and the U.S. dollar went up. Then in 2017, stocks outside the U.S. caught up to the move in U.S. stocks, and the U.S. dollar fell. Then in 2018, all that went into reverse, and U.S. stocks started outperforming again, and the U.S. dollar went up.So, what we've been seeing in stocks today really echoes 2017, not 2018. Stocks outside the U.S. have caught up to the post election rise in U.S. stocks. And so, just like it did in 2017, we think that the U.S. dollar will decline to catch up to that move in relative stock indices.Ariana Salvatore: Finally, Andrew, we already discussed the U.S. dollar negative drivers from 2017. But what happened to these drivers the following year in 2018? And is that any indication for what might happen in 2026?Andrew Watrous: So 2018, as you mentioned, does offer a blueprint for how the U.S. dollar could go up. So, for example, if trade tensions evolve in a direction where our economists would have to significantly downwardly revise their global growth forecasts, then the U.S. dollar could start to look more attractive as a safe haven. And in 2018, there was a big rise in long-end Treasury yields. That's not what we're calling for; but if that were to happen, then the U.S. dollar could catch a bid.Ariana Salvatore: Andrew, thanks for taking the time to talk.Andrew Watrous: Great speaking with you, Ariana.Ariana Salvatore: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

The US is suspending military aid to Ukraine, Chevrolet Silverado's complex supply chain leaves it particularly vulnerable to a looming trade war, and Eurozone inflation has fallen for the first time in four months to 2.4 per cent. Plus, US defence stocks are being left behind. Mentioned in this podcast:US suspends military aid to UkraineHow Donald Trump's tariffs threaten an iconic US pick-up truckEurozone inflation falls to 2.4% as underlying price pressures easeEuropean defence shares jump as blistering rally gathers paceUS defence groups miss out on global stock rally amid Trump's Pentagon cutsCredit: @ChevyPHThe FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In aanloop naar de rentevergadering van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) volgende week laten verschillende centrale bankiers al van zich horen. Een Italiaanse centrale bankier constateert dat de economie van de Eurozone zwakker is dan verwacht, doordat het verwachte herstel van de consumptie van huishoudens uitblijft. Zijn Franse collega tekent op dat de onzekerheid rondom importheffingen van de VS onze economische groei kan raken. ‘Wat ze allebei willen zeggen is: we moeten doorgaan met het verlagen van de rente, want daar heeft onze economie behoefte aan’, zegt macro-econoom Edin Mujagic. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Baggeraar en maritiem dienstverlener Boskalis vierde vorig jaar het beste financiële jaar ooit. Het lijkt alsof malaise in de windindustrie, raketten van Houthi-rebellen, dure scheepsverzekeringen, rentestijgingen en ander gedoe het bedrijf niet kunnen raken. Maar is dat wel zo? En hoe staat het eigenlijk met dat vertrek uit Nederland waar meerdere keren mee is gedreigd? Te gast is Peter Berdowski, topman van Boskalis. Macro met Boot Elke dag een intrigerende gedachtewisseling over de stand van de macro-economie. Op maandag en vrijdag gaat presentator Thomas van Zijl in gesprek met econoom Arnoud Boot, de rest van de week praat Van Zijl met econoom Edin Mujagić. Economenpanel De Duitse economie heeft al twee jaar flink de griep te pakken, maar de uitslag van de parlementsverkiezingen zou maar zo het vaccin kunnen zijn. En: Nederland weet iedere keer weer een hogere inflatie te hebben dan de rest van de Eurozone. Dat en meer bespreken we in het economenpanel met: Heleen Mees, econoom en auteur en Hans Stegeman, hoofdeconoom bij Triodos. Luister l Economenpanel Contact & Abonneren BNR Zakendoen zendt elke werkdag live uit van 11:00 tot 13:30 uur. Je kunt de redactie bereiken via e-mail. Abonneren op de podcast van BNR Zakendoen kan via bnr.nl/zakendoen, of via Apple Podcast en Spotify. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Money Wise Guys kick off this week's podcast with a market recap, highlighting a strong performance across major indexes. The Dow rose 243 points (0.5%), the S&P 500 gained 89 points (1.5%), and the NASDAQ jumped 503 points (2.6%), with all three maintaining solid year-to-date gains. The discussion touches on technicals, noting that the S&P 500 has been stuck in a sideways trading range since late January. Key market drivers remain interest rate expectations and ongoing tariff negotiations. While initial tariff announcements caused sharp reactions, market sensitivity has eased as investors adjust to the administration's strategy of using tariffs as leverage in trade deals. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve reiterated its data-driven approach to monetary policy, though speculation continues about whether persistent inflation could slow down expected rate cuts. Beyond market movements, the guys focus on tariffs and their broader economic impact. The administration's latest round of reciprocal tariffs, particularly on the Eurozone and India, reignited debates about their inflationary effects. While some argue tariffs drive up prices, the guys pointed out that competition and supply chain adjustments help mitigate long-term inflation risks. With the administration pushing aggressive policy changes in its first 100 days, heightened volatility is expected throughout 2025. The key takeaway? Investors should stay informed, remain flexible, and prepare for continued market fluctuations as new economic policies take shape. Tariff Tantrums  Tariff tantrums—sharp market reactions to new trade policies—have become a recurring theme, though their impact appears to be fading. Initially, every new tariff announcement triggered volatility, but investors seem to be adjusting to the administration's aggressive trade stance. While tariffs can raise costs on imported goods and contribute to inflation, the market is learning to anticipate these moves rather than panic. The back-and-forth nature of tariff negotiations, where policies are announced, adjusted, or delayed, has created uncertainty, but also opportunities for traders who navigate the swings. As businesses adapt supply chains and the administration continues its tit-for-tat approach, the market's sensitivity to tariff news may keep diminishing—unless a major escalation reignites the tantrums. In the second hour, the Money Wise guys explore RIA vs. Broker. You don't want to miss the details! Tune in for the full discussion on your favorite podcast provider or at davidsoncap.com, where you can also learn more about the Money Wise guys or take advantage of a portfolio review and analysis with Davidson Capital Management.

Welcome to the latest edition of Liquidity Link Live, your exclusive market analysis provided by Northern Trust Asset Management, one of the world's largest cash managers. Tune in each month to discover the very latest insights on the UK, Eurozone and US markets. This edition was recorded on the 6th February 2025.

US president Donald Trump's tariffs on Mexico and Canada are paused for now, commercial property investment is starting to recover from a two-year slump, and Eurozone inflation unexpectedly ticked up in January. Plus, the French AI company Mistral was supposed to be Europe's answer to US Big Tech dominance, but it's struggling to gain traction. Mentioned in this podcast:US to pause tariffs on Canada for 30 days after Trudeau and Trump agree dealInvestors choose flats and hotels over offices as property deals returnEurozone inflation rises to 2.5% in JanuaryHas Europe's great hope for AI missed its moment?The FT News Briefing is produced by Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Ethan Plotkin, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Katie McMurran, Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bitcoin is down slightly at $98,153 Eth is down slightly at $3,051 XRP, down half a percent at $2.74 Canada responds to tariffs in-kind. US Energy prices could increase affecting BTC mining. ECB President Christine Lagarde says Bitcoin won't be added to Eurozone's reserves. 21 shares files for DOT ETF Czech National Bank looks at Bitcoin as reserve asset. Irreducible raises $24M in Series A. Crypto industry loses $74M to hacks in Jan. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Apple revealed quarterly results that slightly exceeded Wall Street expectations, SoftBank is in talks to invest as much as $25bn into OpenAI, and the European Central Bank cut interest rates as it warned about headwinds to the bloc's economy. Plus, there are concerns that China's hukou system creates second-class citizens and holds back consumption in urban areas. Mentioned in this podcast:Apple results top estimates even as iPhone sales stallSoftBank in talks to invest up to $25bn in OpenAI ECB warns of ‘headwinds' to Eurozone economy as it cuts rate to 2.75%How a Mao-era system creates second-class citizens in modern China The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian, Lulu Smyth, and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

AP correspondent Karen Chammas reports there's been zero growth for Europe's economy.

David Murphy RTÉ Economics & Public Affairs Correspondent, reports that the European Central Bank has cut interest rates as expected today.

Eurozone economists warn the European Central Bank has been too slow to cut interest rates, and US Steel faces a bleak outlook after President Biden's decision to block its sale. UK businesses plan price increases as the Budget drives up costs, and CrowdStrike has more than recovered the $30bn in market value it shed last year. Plus, China's movie theatres are in crisis. Mentioned in this podcast:ECB has been too slow to cut rates, Eurozone economists warn Joe Biden blocks Nippon Steel's $15bn takeover of US Steel UK businesses plan price increases as Budget drives up costs CrowdStrike bounces back after triggering largest IT outage in historyChina's box office takings drop by a quarter as viewers turn to streaming The FT News Briefing is produced by Niamh Rowe, Fiona Symon, Sonja Hutson, Kasia Broussalian and Marc Filippino. Additional help from Breen Turner, Sam Giovinco, Peter Barber, Michael Lello, David da Silva and Gavin Kallmann. Our engineer is Joseph Salcedo. Topher Forhecz is the FT's executive producer. The FT's global head of audio is Cheryl Brumley. The show's theme song is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The death of former Greek Prime Minister Costas Simitis at the age of 88 has put a spotlight on his tenure (1996-2004), with many highlighting his role in shaping today's Greece. Key highlights include bringing Greece into the Eurozone, playing a key role in Cyprus's quest for EU membership, establishing a framework for dialogue with Turkey, and securing the 2004 Athens Olympics. John Psaropoulos joins Thanos Davelis to look back at Simitis' legacy and impact on Greece. John Psaropoulos is an independent journalist and Al Jazeera's correspondent in southeast Europe. He publishes Hellenica, a weekly deep dive into Greek current affairs and history. You can find it on Substack.com.You can read the articles we discuss on our podcast here:Costas Simitis, 2-Time Prime Minister of Greece, Dies at 88Tributes paid after former Greek PM Costas Simitis dies aged 88International media reflect on Costas Simitis' legacy as Greece's modernizerGreece begins UNSC tenure, eyes global impactTurkey plans ‘Blue Homeland' exercise