Podcasts about central banks

The Reserve Bank of Australia had resisted cutting rates, being the last major central bank to do so. This week, RBA not only cut again officials confirmed discussing a fifty. Plus the Swedes, who were supposed to have been done, are back at it again. Race to the bottom heats up again.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreBloomberg RBA Ready to Respond If Needed to Trade Shock, Hauser Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/rba-s-hauser-sees-us-china-trade-dispute-aiding-australian-firmsS&P Global Eurozone PMIs May 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/f4672a7ff89744e096c5e9497d2e5362https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week, Swamp Notes goes to London for a live recording. Katie Martin, host of the Unhedged podcast, and Chris Giles, author of the FT's Central Banks newsletter, discuss what Trump's next few months might be like. Have markets truly recovered from the “liberation day” shock? What happens after the 90-day tariff pause is over? Our guests weigh in. Subscribe to the new Swamp Notes feed here.Mentioned in this podcast:Read the latest Chris Giles on Central Banks column hereListen to the Unhedged podcast hereSign up for the FT's Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the acting co-head of audio. Special thanks to Mischa Frankl-Duval and Pierre Nicholson.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A free market economy does not generate jobs or money. Instead, it creates wealth through exchange and production. Government intervention, contrary to what mainstream economists believe, does not enhance wealth, but instead destroys it.Original article: Wealth Generation and the Market Economy

A free market economy does not generate jobs or money. Instead, it creates wealth through exchange and production. Government intervention, contrary to what mainstream economists believe, does not enhance wealth, but instead destroys it.Original article: Wealth Generation and the Market Economy

The economy weakens and everyone looks to the Fed or any central bank to cut policy rates. But why? They call it stimulus but the real reason is nothing you've ever heard. In fact, Fed officials intentionally lied for decades to keep this quiet. You don't have to take my word for it; hear it from the maestro's mouth as we go down the rabbit hole of interest rates. Eurodollar University's Make it Make CentsFOMC March 1991https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC19910326meeting.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

This week, Swamp Notes goes to London for a live recording. Katie Martin, host of the Unhedged podcast, and Chris Giles, author of the FT's Central Banks newsletter, discuss what Trump's next few months might be like. Have markets truly recovered from the “liberation day” shock? What happens after the 90-day tariff pause is over? Our guests weigh in. Subscribe to the new Swamp Notes feed here. Mentioned in this podcast:Read the latest Chris Giles on Central Banks column hereListen to the Unhedged podcast hereSign up for the FT's Swamp Notes newsletter hereSwamp Notes is produced by Katya Kumkova. Topher Forhecz is the acting co-head of audio. Special thanks to Mischa Frankl-Duvall and Pierre Nicholson. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/LT rates are up and you know what that means: get ready for a flood of claims deficits suddenly now matter. They don't (sadly), at least not for bonds, and we know they don't because not all the yield curve maturities are seeing selling. The one spot on the curve you always want to watch is sending another major warning, and it isn't too many Treasuries. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Next up this Summer, Kelly talks with bestselling author Moisés Naím about the rise of authoritarianism around the world.  Moisés Naím is an internationally syndicated columnist and best-selling author of several books, including most recently "The Revenge of Power: How Autocrats Are Reinventing Politics for the 21st Century," published in 2023. In the early 1990s, Dr. Naím served as Venezuela's Minister of Trade and Industry, as director of Venezuela's Central Bank, and as executive director of the World Bank. He was previously a professor of business and economics and dean of IESA, Venezuela's leading business school. He now serves as a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His forthcoming book, "Charlatans: How Grifters, Swindlers, and Hucksters Bamboozle the Media, the Markets, and the Masses," is coming out in October 2025. Link to the revenge of power: https://www.amazon.com/Revenge-Power-Autocrats-Reinventing-Politics/dp/1250279208 The opinions expressed in this conversation are strictly those of the participants and do not represent the views of Georgetown University or any government entity. Produced by Theo Malhotra and Freddie Mallinson.  Recorded on April 7, 2025. Diplomatic Immunity, a podcast from the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University, brings you frank and candid conversations with experts on the issues facing diplomats and national security decision-makers around the world. Funding support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. For more, visit our website, and follow us on Linkedin, Twitter @GUDiplomacy, and Instagram @isd.georgetown

It has been another big week in markets. We discuss US fiscal developments and how the Fed might respond as well as preview US inflation data. In focus for the week ahead is also central bank decisions in Australia, New Zealand and South Korea, alongside India's growth outlook. In Europe, we discuss recent signs of softening of inflation and why the ECB still has room to cut rates. Chapters: US (01:50), Australia & New Zealand (07:31), India (10:33), Asia (17:19), Europe (18:03). 

We have more confirmation of a huge and unusual rise in bank lending to this offshore category. It parallels other similar corroboration which raises several thorny issues, leaving us with two broad interpretations for what this really means. With new data becoming available, it raises the stakes for a possible next time. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/While we wait to see if the Swiss National Bank opts for zero or negative policy rates next month, its chief Martin Schlegel had a lot to say yesterday about a range of topics, including negative prices, Treasury bonds, and global risks. Jamie Dimon then today chimed in today cautioning that stocks and risk markets are ready for heightened credit risks. One reason why is volatility in repo, where TIC data shows a huge increasing in offshore resales heading into everything April. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Dimon Warns Markets Are Underestimating Geopolitical, Inflation Riskshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/jpmorgan-s-dimon-warns-against-complacency-amid-mounting-risksBloomberg Swiss Inflation Risks Falling Below Zero in Individual Months This Year, Schlegel Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-chief-sees-subzero-inflation-in-individual-months-this-yearBloomberg SNB President Schlegel Sees No Alternative to US Treasurieshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/snb-president-schlegel-sees-no-alternative-to-us-treasuriesBloomberg Singapore Central Bank Chief Says US Dollar Assets Irreplaceablehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/singapore-central-bank-chief-says-us-dollar-assets-irreplaceablehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In a late Friday news dump, Moody's announced it had downgraded U.S. federal government debt. The news sparked a selloff in Treasuries, at least initially. What are the implications for bonds or the economy? It's not what the mainstream thinks it does.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg What the US Losing Its Last AAA Credit Rating Meanshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-19/us-lost-moody-s-aaa-credit-rating-what-s-at-stake-for-marketsS&P Global August 5, 2011https://disclosure.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/view/sourceId/6802837Fitch August 1, 2023https://www.fitchratings.com/research/sovereigns/fitch-downgrades-united-states-long-term-ratings-to-aa-from-aaa-outlook-stable-01-08-2023https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Japan did indeed fall back into recession in the first quarter before the tariff shock even had a chance to hit the economy, and positing a deeper negative GDP print than expected. Like everywhere else, the setback is being led largely by consumers. At the same time, American consumer confidence fell to another shocking low rather than rebound with trade deals and a rebounding stock market. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

It's still known as Black Tuesday almost a century later. In October 1929, the stock market crashes and plunges the world into the Great Depression. At least that's what we've been told and what we all believe. But then why didn't the Crash of 1987 lead to Great Depression 2? I mean, it didn't even slow the economy down. Or the dot-com crash. Something is missing. As it turns out, there's a lot missing and so this is the first installment to fill in what Economics leaves out, or plain gets wrong. Eurodollar University's Make it Make Centshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Trace Mayer, Bitcoin OG and advocate for monetary sovereignty, joins us for a compelling deep dive into the real-world implications of El Salvador's groundbreaking adoption of Bitcoin. This wasn't a surface-level chat, we covered everything from Bitcoin in El Salvador to the broader global reset many are calling the Fourth Turning.We explored how President Bukele is reshaping El Salvador by combining bold leadership with sound money principles and how Bitcoin fits into that transformation. Trace shares why financial freedom is rooted in individuals taking control of their money, and how El Salvador is providing a real-world test case for that philosophy.We also talk about the risk of centralized financial tools like ETFs, the importance of self-custody through initiatives like Proof of Keys, and how Bitcoin's growing financial infrastructure, especially in derivatives and custody, is shaping the future.Don't forget to subscribe, share this with your favorite fiat-loving friend, and comment below: Would you trust your government to hold Bitcoin for you, or is it safer in your own hands?Learn more about Trace Mayerhttps://www.trace.com/ https://x.com/bitcoinkn Connect with Trace Mayerhttps://x.com/TraceMayer https://www.instagram.com/trace_mayer/ Support and follow Bitcoin Beach:X: @BitcoinBeachIG: @bitcoinbeach_svTikTok: @livefrombitcoinbeachWeb: bitcoinbeach.comBrowse through this quick guide to learn more about the episode:00:00 – Why Trace Mayer Traveled to Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador02:30 – How Trace Mayer Got Into Bitcoin and Monetary Sovereignty06:15 – How Inflation Destroys Sound Money and Everyday Wealth10:40 – What Monetary Sovereignty Really Means in Today's World14:50 – Why El Salvador Adopted Bitcoin for Financial Freedom19:30 – How President Bukele Is Using Bitcoin to Change El Salvador25:40 – Why Proof of Keys Still Matters for Bitcoin Users in 202530:10 – Are Bitcoin ETFs Threatening Real Financial Freedom?37:20 – What the Fourth Turning Means for Bitcoin and the Global Economy45:10 – Can the US Reset Its Economy with Bitcoin, Gold, and the Dollar?47:15 – What Trace Mayer Is Building in the Bitcoin Financial System52:00 – Where to Follow Trace Mayer and Learn About His Latest WorkLive From Bitcoin Beach

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/It was a trifecta of disinflation disaster in today's numbers, with Walmart adding to the woes with its own deteriorating environment. Retail sales were more than soft, industrial output fell, but most concerning prices fell sharply - including wholesale services costs crashing the most on record. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWalmart Q1 earningshttps://corporate.walmart.com/content/dam/corporate/documents/newsroom/2025/05/15/walmart-releases-q1-fy26-earnings/q1-fy26-earnings-release.pdfCNN Walmart warns it will raise prices because of tariffshttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/15/business/walmart-prices-tariffsCNBC Walmart CFO says price hikes from tariffs could start later this month, as retailer beats on earningshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/15/walmart-wmt-q1-2026-earnings.htmlBloomberg US Retail Sales Barely Rise, Suggesting Some Spending Pullbackhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-retail-sales-barely-rise-suggesting-some-spending-pullbackBloomberg US Producer Prices Fell Unexpectedly in April as Margins Shrankhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-15/us-producer-prices-fall-unexpectedly-as-margins-declineReuters US manufacturing output falls in April on weak auto productionhttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-manufacturing-output-falls-april-weak-auto-production-2025-05-15/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Connect with Onramp // Onramp TerminalMatthew Pines on X // Bitcoin Policy Institute // BPI Policy SummitOnramp Trade: Enter "TLT" during sign-up for Onramp Trade and receive 50% off account fees and zero cost trading through September.The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Brian Cubellis, & Tim Kotzman. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset...in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.00:00 - Introduction to Matthew Pines04:02 - US-Saudi Investment Forum Overview08:09 - Geopolitical Implications of US Foreign Policy18:44 - Monetary Reordering and Dollar Dominance26:55 - Central Banks and Federal Debt Dynamics32:50 - Bitcoin's Role in the Global Monetary System41:59 - The Role of Capital in Strategic Competition44:30 - Covert Operations and Financial Markets46:26 - The Intersection of Bitcoin and National Security48:40 - The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Discussion49:22 - Tipping Points in Bitcoin Policy56:31 - The Future of Bitcoin in U.S. Policy59:26 - Balancing Bitcoin Acquisition and Dollar Confidence01:02:22 - Innovative Financial Mechanisms for Bitcoin Acquisition01:06:55 - Bitcoin as a Hedge Against Disruption01:10:08 - The Overton Window Shift for Bitcoin01:13:54 - Disruptive Advanced Technologies01:16:00 - The Convergence of Bitcoin, AI, and Energy01:18:59 - BPI's Role in Bitcoin Advocacy01:22:52 - The Future of Bitcoin and Decentralization01:24:37 - Outro and DisclaimerPlease subscribe to Onramp Media channels and sign up for weekly Research & Analysis to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.

New figures from the Central Bank show that a record €2.5 billion was taken out in personal loans by Irish households. A large amount of loans for car and house loans. We discuss these figure with Paul Merriman, CEO of Fairstone Ireland aka Ask Paul.

Chinese banks cut lending - by a lot - in April, completing the defensive story seen in banking systems all around the world. However, China's is unique in several key aspects, starting with what authorities have been doing trying to change this. The reason why it has come to this for Chinese banks really is not what everyone believes. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problemhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-economy-can-1-6-trillion-help-solve-xi-s-hidden-debt-problemRueters China's property 'whitelist' lifeline stutters amid sector gloomhttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-property-whitelist-lifeline-stutters-amid-sector-gloom-2024-05-14/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Microsoft announced another round of layoffs. Coming from a company that isn't struggling nearly as much as most, it's an ominous sign. The April CPI shows why and not just for Microsoft. It instead aligns with the biggest problem in the economy, and that's not inflation which was absent from the report despite the start of tariffs. A surprise to Economists, but not to BED. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Microsoft laying off about 6,000 people, or 3% of its workforcehttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/13/microsoft-is-cutting-3percent-of-workers-across-the-software-company.htmlBloomberg Softer-Than-Expected Inflation Points to Muted Tariff Fallouthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-13/us-inflation-comes-in-softer-than-forecast-for-another-monthBLS BED/BDMhttps://www.bls.gov/bdm/bdmover.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Re-risking accelerated on Wall Street and for many other markets; even bond yields rose. The thinking is if trade wars broke everything, then trade deals fix it. However, the US and China don't have one, And that's only the first of several key misimpressions - starting with the 2018 example. Like then, the incoming data doesn't align with "trade wars broke it."Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJoint Statement on U.S.-China Economic and Trade Meeting in Genevahttps://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/05/joint-statement-on-u-s-china-economic-and-trade-meeting-in-geneva/Bloomberg US, China to Slash Tariffs During 90-Day Reprieve for Talkshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/us-and-china-agree-to-major-reductions-in-tariffs-for-90-daysBloomberg Japan Rules Out Trade Deal With US That Excludes Auto Tariffshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/japan-s-ishiba-says-won-t-do-trade-deal-with-us-excluding-autosSCMP China's consumer prices fall in April, fuelling fears of deflationhttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3309834/chinas-consumer-prices-fall-april-fuelling-fears-deflationhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

What's in a single number? For this one, a whole lot of confirmation plus warning. Consumer sentiment has famously crashed and this one figure holds the key to why. Everything else that's happening comes down to this single deficiency. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Canadian payrolls were dismal in April, including the biggest two-month collapse in private jobs since the lockdowns. It isn't just sentiment. While pessimism has soared, results from around the real economy is backing that up with hard data. Not just Canada, also Mexico. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisJeremy Rudd Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdfTranscript Chair Powell Press Conference May 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfBloomberg Canada Joblessness Hits 6.9% as Tariffs Strike Manufacturinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-09/canada-adds-7-400-jobs-unemployment-jumps-to-6-9Bank of Canada Financial Stability Report 2025https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/SPG Canada Manufacturing PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/487ca2cba7784b86aa9d9df3a315d744SPG Canada Services PMI April 2025https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/4c356ce1148c420fbee728307ef2b2dchttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

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Former hardcore hawk, the Bank of England pulled ahead of the Federal Reserve by rejoining the global race to the bottom. And it did so with what is being called a weird three-way split. The split was neither weird nor much of one. Instead what BoE did - and why - has already shown up here in the US. The latest confirmation comes from the Fed's very own data where job fears have exploded for the same reason(s) BoE is acting. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBank of England MPR May 2025https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/may-2025FOMC Chair May 2025 press conferencehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oX4RCJJXAMhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

In the week to date, the major themes remain around tariffs, policy and uncertainty, and what central banks will make of it all. Weaker growth but higher inflation could leave central banks in a tricky spot. In the week ahead, our focus in the US will be on April retail sales and CPI, and the latest tariff developments. In Europe, we recap the central bank meetings over the past week and look ahead to UK labour market and GDP data. Then we turn to Japan to consider Q1 growth, as well as tariff and trade negotiations. Chapters: US (01:47), Europe (09:54), Japan (13:19), Asia (16:12).

Entire Interview. Tucker Carlson, Catherine Fitts: Bankers vs. the West, Secret Underground Bases, and the Oncoming Extinction Event.  Former Bush administration official Catherine Austin Fitts on how America's leaders gave up on the country in the 1990s, began stealing trillions and built a digital prison to control the population. Tucker Carlson 1.06M followers 5.33K39 Streamed on Apr 28, 2025 424K News #TuckerCarlson #CatherineAustinFitts #centralbankdigitalcurrency #banking #finance #apocalypse #AI #space #debt #housingcrisis #inflation #money #news #politics #podcast Chapters: 0:00 Introduction 1:11 The Attempts to Control the World's Currency 12:09 The Two Things That Lead to Inflation 16:17 Central Bankers vs. the West 25:01 What You Should Know About the Bank of International Settlements 29:48 The Banker's Plan to Conquer Space 32:27 Are We Approaching an Extinction Event? 35:57 Secret Underground Bases All Across the US 44:49 The Government's Secret Energy Sources 56:42 Who Are the Masterminds Behind the Central Banks? 58:26 The Real Reason American Universities Are Failing 1:06:25 The Global Depopulation Plan 1:13:20 The Housing Crisis 1:24:40 How to Stay Joyful in Dark Times 1:25:37 The Missing $21 Trillion 1:30:30 America's Debt Is a Symptom of Something Much Bigger 1:39:36 Global Money Laundering 1:45:06 Where Can People Learn More About This?

The Fed left its key interest rate unchanged again Wednesday and gave no hint it plans to lower it soon.Commercial Appeal Criminal Justice Reporter Lucas Finton has the latest from Memphis after former police officers were found not guilty of murder in the beating death of Tyre Nichols. All three former officers were separately convicted in federal court and still face time in federal prison.A nonpartisan analysis said millions of Americans could lose Medicaid health insurance coverage under different Republican Congressional proposals to cut spending.Airline CEOs rally behind Trump's air traffic control plan.USA TODAY Education Reporter Zach Schermele discusses how some think China could benefit from Trump defunding university research.Today is VE Day, marking 80 years since the end of the European theater in World War II.Let us know what you think of this episode by sending an email to podcasts@usatoday.com.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Insiders are looking for the exits. Short selling sharks are circling. Regulated banks are majorly exposed to this credit segment, another one deep within the shadows. Could this explain why market signals remain near or at extremes? From swap spreads to gold ratios, there is deflationary everywhere in them and credit default swaps have cast their blame specifically toward banks. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Short Sellers Bet Against Private Credit Lendershttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-03/short-sellers-bet-against-private-credit-lenders-credit-weeklyIMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2025https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2025/04/22/global-financial-stability-report-april-2025IMF Private Credithttps://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-USD2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watchhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Welcome to The Golden Rule Show — your weekly deep dive into all things money.

Today David talks to political and economic theorist Leah Downey about the role that central banks in general – and the Federal Reserve in particular – have played in the story of globalisation. How has the Fed tried to reconcile its obligations to American democracy with its obligations to the global order? Is the Eurodollar a token of American strength or American vulnerability? Are the world's central bankers really just a private club? And what does history tell us about the likely outcome of Trump vs Powell? The latest edition of our free fortnightly newsletter is out tomorrow with guides, insights and clips to accompany this series, plus David writes about whether Nigel Farage really spells the end of two-party politics in the UK. Sign up now https://www.ppfideas.com/newsletters Next time on Ideas of Globalisation: The Crisis of the 1970s (and Trump!) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US sovereign CDS prices are soaring, not relenting after jumping during April. While mainstream sources will say that's this dollar-ditching stuff, neither the track record for CDS nor empirical evidence agrees. Government credit default swap premiums are set by one factor, and it has everything to do with the banking system. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisSovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?https://www.ucd.ie/geary/static/publications/workingpapers/gearywp201402.pdfMSCI The CDS Market's View on US Defaulthttps://www.msci.com/www/blog-posts/the-cds-market-s-view-on-us/03820087801Bloomberg Oaktree Co-CEO Sees Private Credit Trades as Low as 50 Centshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/oaktree-s-o-leary-says-deep-discounts-arising-in-private-credithttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

The central banks are hoarding this asset while they wait for Trump's next move! In the meantime, Warren Buffett's announced his official retirement and his handoff of leadership to Greg Abel. We talk Buffett's post-2000 investment choices, the reasons he may have avoided buying Microsoft despite his close friendship with Bill Gates, and the challenges of managing massive capital. The hosts also touch on Buffett's preference for capital-efficient, moat-heavy businesses and his indirect exposure to Microsoft through index holdings. We also discuss recent economic news, negative GDP print driven by rising inventories and reduced government spending. We discuss...  Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement, passing leadership to Greg Abel. Buffett's consistent outperformance over decades, despite criticisms of his recent picks. Buffett's size as an investor was cited as a limitation, forcing him to seek only very large investments. The recent negative GDP print, noting concerns around economic slowdown. Inventory buildup ahead of Trump-era tariffs artificially skewed GDP figures. Net exports and reduced government spending are key contributors to the negative GDP number. Consumer spending was also shown to have slowed, adding to concerns about potential recession signals. A sharp drop in consumer spending could be a clear economic indicator of a downturn. Business investment surged after Trump's election due to economic optimism but has since stalled amid uncertainty Many business owners are holding back on investment due to a lack of visibility under the current administration. Shipping delays from China can take 30 days, meaning tariff effects won't be felt immediately but are now becoming visible. A drop in container orders from China suggests supply chain disruptions are already underway. The "bullwhip effect" explains how small supply chain changes can cause large swings in inventory and pricing. Warren Buffett is still sitting on significant cash, possibly anticipating better buying opportunities amid market volatility. A coming inventory crunch could cause inflation as demand outstrips constrained supply. Post-COVID rebounds in same-store sales distort trend lines and may create false signals. The official CPI of 21% over five years doesn't align with real-world price experiences, suggesting data manipulation. Government inflation numbers may be inaccurate or understated, leading to misguided investing decisions. Investors should rely on personal experience and intuition—the “bullshit detector”—instead of blindly trusting official data.   Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/central-banks-are-hoarding-this-asset-711

Key Takeaways: What Is Monetary Overstretch? Imagine if someone kept borrowing money and never paid it back — eventually, things would fall apart. That's what happens when the whole money system gets too deep into debt. It's like trying to build a tower too high on a shaky base. How to Spot the Signs Look out for: Super low interest rates (like banks making it cheap to borrow) Prices of things going way up (that's inflation) Big bubbles in stuff like housing or stocks (prices that don't make sense) Governments constantly giving out money to keep things running How It Affects Regular People When the system is shaky: Jobs might be harder to find Things cost more (like groceries or gas) It's harder to afford the things you need That's why it's important to understand what's going on in the economy — so you're not caught off guard. What Central Banks Are Doing Central banks (like the Federal Reserve) try to “fix” things by changing interest rates. But if they make the wrong move, it can make things worse — like trying to fix a leak and accidentally flooding the house. How to Protect Your Money It's smart to start looking at things that don't lose value over time — like Bitcoin or real estate. These are harder to “print more of,” so they can help you stay ahead when money starts losing its worth. Chapters: Timestamp Summary 0:00 Introduction to Monetary Overstretch 1:07 Explaining Monetary Overstretch 3:04 Impact of Human Intervention on Systems 4:12 Signs of Financial System Overstretch 6:17 Rising Inflation and Global Impacts 7:55 Dependence on Stimulus 9:06 Effects on Everyday People 11:21 Central Banks and Tightening Policy 13:15 Assets That Hold Value 14:36 Traditional Portfolios and Currency Value 16:02 Investor Mindset and Principles 19:20 Decentralization and Market Evolution 21:38 New System Transition and Conclusion   Powered by Stone Hill Wealth Management   Social Media Handles    Follow Phillip Washington, Jr. on Instagram (@askphillip)   Subscribe to Wealth Building Made Simple newsletter https://www.wealthbuildingmadesimple.us/   Ready to turn your investing dreams into reality? Our "Wealth Building Made Simple" premium newsletter is your secret weapon. We break down investing in a way that's easy to understand, even if you're just starting out. Learn the tricks the wealthy use, discover exciting opportunities, and start building the future YOU want. Sign up now, and let's make those dreams happen!   WBMS Premium Subscription   Phillip Washington, Jr. is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Collin Martin and Jeffrey Kleintop provide the Big Picture takeaways from today's Fed decision to keep rates unchanged. Collin says right now the Fed is in "wait-and-see mode" and believes the U.S. central bank may cut twice in 2025, with the first cut more likely in September. Overseas, Jeffrey is looking for expected cuts from the Bank of England and European Central Bank.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

As expected the Central Bank left interest rates alone and Chairman Jerome Powell told us...why.  This is the Business News Headlines for Wednesday the 7th day of May, thanks for being with us.  In other news, Disney profits soar and that has an impact on the markets.  It seems the more President Trump talks about tariffs the more confusing it gets. Missouri made the news and it has to do with selling stock or real estate. We'll share the Wall Street Report and the FAA is about to spend billions to upgrade air traffic control…we are told.  For the conversation I'm joined by Herb Copley the president of the Iowa National Association of Letter Carriers, AFL-CIO.  It all has to do with privatizing the postal service and some amazing facts we suspect you don't know.  Let's go Thanks for listening! The award winning Insight on Business the News Hour with Michael Libbie is the only weekday business news podcast in the Midwest. The national, regional and some local business news along with long-form business interviews can be heard Monday - Friday. You can subscribe on  PlayerFM, Podbean, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or TuneIn Radio. And you can catch The Business News Hour Week in Review each Sunday Noon Central on News/Talk 1540 KXEL. The Business News Hour is a production of Insight Advertising, Marketing & Communications. You can follow us on Twitter @IoB_NewsHour...and on Threads @Insight_On_Business.  

// GUEST //X: https://x.com/ericyakesWebsite: https://epochvc.io/ // SPONSORS //The Farm at Okefenokee: https://okefarm.com/iCoin: https://icointechnology.com/breedloveHeart and Soil Supplements (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://heartandsoil.co/In Wolf's Clothing: https://wolfnyc.com/Blockware Solutions: https://mining.blockwaresolutions.com/breedloveOn Ramp: https://onrampbitcoin.com/?grsf=breedloveMindlab Pro: https://www.mindlabpro.com/breedloveCoinbits: https://coinbits.app/breedlove // PRODUCTS I ENDORSE //Protect your mobile phone from SIM swap attacks: https://www.efani.com/breedloveNoble Protein (discount code BREEDLOVE for 15% off): https://nobleorigins.com/Lineage Provisions (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://lineageprovisions.com/?ref=breedlove_22Colorado Craft Beef (use discount code BREEDLOVE): https://coloradocraftbeef.com/ // SUBSCRIBE TO THE CLIPS CHANNEL //https://www.youtube.com/@robertbreedloveclips2996/videos // OUTLINE //0:00 - WiM Episode Trailer1:33 - Eric's Professional Background5:53 - The Dimensions of Money12:55 - Centralized Power and Bitcoin19:55 - The Farm at Okefenokee21:21 - iCoin Technology22:51 - Evolution is Biological Innovation30:58 - Is Money Subjective or Objective?33:59 - Bitcoin and Trust42:17 - Heart and Soil Supplements43:17 - Helping Lightning Startups with In Wolf's Clothing44:09 - Free Banking vs the State55:23 - Bitcoin: Perfect Information1:10:24 - The Addiction of Money Printing1:13:48 - Mine Bitcoin with Blockware Solutions1:15:14 - Onramp Bitcoin Custody1:17:11 - The Corruption of Academia and Central Banking 1:18:30 - Bitcoin's Global Energy Bounty Program1:22:43 - The Physics and Morality of Bitcoin1:32:18 - Mind Lab Pro Supplements1:33:28 - Buy Bitcoin with Coinbits1:34:56 - Wisdom, Religion, and Tradition1:49:25 - Inventing the Individual1:57:08 - Bitcoin and Enlightenment2:05:35 - Where to Find Eric Yakes // PODCAST //Podcast Website: https://whatismoneypodcast.com/Apple Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-what-is-money-show/id1541404400Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/25LPvm8EewBGyfQQ1abIsERSS Feed: https://feeds.simplecast.com/MLdpYXYI // SUPPORT THIS CHANNEL //Bitcoin: 3D1gfxKZKMtfWaD1bkwiR6JsDzu6e9bZQ7Sats via Strike: https://strike.me/breedlove22Dollars via Paypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/RBreedloveDollars via Venmo: https://account.venmo.com/u/Robert-Breedlove-2 // SOCIAL //Breedlove X: https://x.com/Breedlove22WiM? X: https://x.com/WhatisMoneyShowLinkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/breedlove22/Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/breedlove_22/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@breedlove22Substack: https://breedlove22.substack.com/All My Current Work: https://linktr.ee/robertbreedlove

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Another major safe haven currency has exploded higher, not just in early April but here in early May. It's gone so far already the local monetary authority has had to intervene. Over in Switzerland, the country report zero inflation for April. Along with the similar behavior of the franc, the Swiss central bank is looking at zero rates next month - if not negative given what both these currencies are doing. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Hong Kong Dollar Tests Strong End of Trading Band for Second Dayhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-05/hong-kong-dollar-tests-strong-end-of-trading-band-for-second-dayhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Connect with Onramp // Jackson Mikalic on XScarce Assets: a biweekly podcast presented by Onramp which delves into the emergent role of bitcoin in finance professionals' strategies and outlooks. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Scarce Assets provides invaluable insights for wealth managers aiming to outperform their peers in the decades ahead. Finance professionals everywhere know about stocks and bonds, but the macroeconomic outlook requires that serious investors pay close attention to another category: Scarce Assets.00:00 - Market Overview and Economic Landscape16:02 - The Role of Gold and Bitcoin in Current Economy29:37 - The Bond Market's Impending Crisis31:18 - The Shift Towards Gold and Neutral Assets34:47 - Understanding the Sovereign Debt Crisis36:58 - The Role of Central Banks and QE39:46 - China's Gold Reserves vs. U.S. Reserves41:52 - The Value of Gold in a Crisis43:10 - BRICS and Global Gold Dynamics47:31 - Integrating Bitcoin into Traditional Assets49:10 - The Need for a Monetary Reset50:55 - Lessons from the 1970s Market Volatility55:54 - The Relationship Between China and Bitcoin58:46 - The Arms Race for Sound Money Assets01:10:46 - Navigating the Fourth Turning: Historical Context01:18:46 - The Future of Money: Deflation and Accountability01:21:30 - The Journey of Education and Awareness01:30:10 - Outro & DisclaimerPlease subscribe to Onramp Media channels and sign up for weekly Research & Analysis to get access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly.

Morgan Stanley Research analyst Mark Schmidt and Investment Management's Craig Brandon discuss the heightened uncertainty in the U.S. municipal bonds market.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.For a full list of episode disclosures click here.----- Transcript -----Mark Schmidt: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mark Schmidt, Morgan Stanley's Head of Municipal Strategy.Craig Brandon: I'm Craig Brandon, Co-Director of Municipal Investments at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.Mark Schmidt: Today, let's talk about the biggest market you hardly ever hear about – municipal bonds, a $4 trillion asset class.It's Monday, May 5th at 10am in Boston.Mark Schmidt: If you've driven, flown, gone to school or turned on a tap, chances are munis made it happen. Although munis are late cycle haven, they were not immune to the latest bout of market volatility. Craig, why was April so tough?Craig Brandon: So, what we say in April, it was sort of the trifecta of things that happened that were a little different than other asset classes. The first thing that happened is we saw a significant increase in treasury rates – and munis are generally correlated to treasuries. We're a very high-quality asset class, that's viewed as a duration asset class. So, one thing we saw were rates going up. When we see rates going up, you generally see money coming out of the market, right? So, I think investors were a little bit impacted by the higher rates, the correlation to treasuries, the duration, and saw some flows out of the market.Secondly, what we saw is conversation about the tax exemption in Washington D.C. What that did is it caused muni issuers to pull their issuance forward. So, if you're an infrastructure issuer, you are issuing bonds in the next year to year and a half; you're going to pull that forward because if there's any risk of loss of the tax exemption, you want to get these bonds issued today. So that's basically what drives technicals. It's supply and demand. So, what we saw was a decrease in demand because of higher rates; an increase in supply because of issuance being pulled forward.And the third part of the trifecta we refer to is the conversations about the economy. So, I would put that, it's sort of a distant third, but there's still conversations about maybe credit weakness driven by a slowing economy.Mark Schmidt: Craig, your team has been through a lot of tough market cycles. Given your experience, how did the most recent selloff compare? And why was it not like 2008?Craig Brandon: I started my career back in 1998 during the long-term capital management crisis. I lived through 2008. I lived through the COVID crisis, and you know, really when I look at the crisis in 2008 – no banks went out of business three weeks ago, right? In 2008 we were really sitting on a trading desk wondering where this was going to end.You know, we had a number of meetings with our staff, over the last couple weeks explaining to them why it was different and how. Yes, there was some volatility here, but you could see that there was going to be an end to this, and this was not going to be a permanent restructuring of the market. So, I think we felt comfortable. It was very different than 2008 and it really felt different than COVID.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring. But with economic growth set to slow sharply, how does your credit team think the fiscal health of America's state and local governments will hold up?Craig Brandon: Well, remember state and local governments, and when we're talking about munis, we're also talking about other infrastructure asset classes like water and sewer bonds. Like, you know, transportation, bonds, airports. We're talking about toll roads.They went into this with a very strong balance sheet, right? Remember, there was a lot of infrastructure money spent by the federal government during COVID to give issuers money to make it through COVID. There's still a lot of money on balance sheets. So, what we do is we're going into this crisis with a lot of cash on balance sheets, allowing issuers to be able to withstand some weakness in the economy and get through to the other side of this.Mark Schmidt: Not only do state and local governments have a lot of cash, but they're just not that impacted by tariffs, right? So why did muni yields perform worse than U.S. treasuries over the past couple of weeks?Craig Brandon: Right. It really… We're technically driven, right? The U.S. muni market is more retail driven than some other asset classes. Remember – investment grade corporates, treasury bonds, there's a lot of institutional buyers in those markets. In the municipal market, it's primarily retail driven.So, when you know, individual retail investors get nervous, they tend to pull money out of the market. So, what we saw was money coming out of the market. At the same time, we saw an individual increase in more bonds, which just led to very weak technicals, which when we see that it eventually reverses itself.Mark Schmidt: Now I almost buried the lede, right? Why invest in munis? Well, they're great credit quality, but they're also tax free. In fact, muni bonds have been exempt from federal taxes for over a century. You have a lot of experience putting together tax bills, and right now people are worried about tax reform. Do you think investors should be concerned?Craig Brandon: Listen. I'm not really losing a lot of sleep at night over the tax exemption. And I think there's other, you know, issues to worry about. Why do I say that?As you mentioned Mark, I spent the early years of my career working for the New York State Assembly Ways and Means Committee. I spent seven years negotiating budgets and what that did is it gave me a window – into how, you know, not only state budgets, but the federal budget gets put together.So, what it also showed me was the relationship between state and local elected officials and your representatives in Congress and your representatives in the Senate. So, I know firsthand that members of Congress and members of the Senate in Washington have very close relationships with members of the state legislatures, with governors, with mayors, with city council members, with school board members – who are all delivering the message that significantly higher financing costs that could potentially happen from the loss of the exemption, could be meaningful to them.And I think members of Congress and members of the Senate and Washington get it. They understand it because they were all there when it happened. The last time the muni exemption came under fire was back in 2012; and in 2012, a lot of members of Congress were in the state legislature back then, so they understand it.Mark Schmidt: That's reassuring because right now, tax equivalent yields in the muni market are 7 to 8 per cent. That's equal to or greater than the long run rate of return on the stock market. So, whether to invest in the muni market seems pretty straightforward. How to invest in the muni market? Well, with 50,000 issuers, that's a little complicated. How do you recommend investors get exposure to tax-free munis right now?Craig Brandon: Well, and that is a very common question. The muni market can be very confusing because there are just so many bonds out there. You know, over 50,000 issuers, there's over a million individual CUSIPs in the muni market.So as an individual investor, where do you start? There's different coupon structures, different call structures, different maturity structures, ratings. There's so many different variables that go into a decision in investing in muni bonds.I can make an argument that you could probably mimic the S&P 500 with 500 different stocks. But most muni indices are over 50,000 constituents. It's very difficult to replicate the muni market by yourself, which is why a lot of people, you know, they let professional money managers, do the investing for them. Whether you're looking at mutual funds, whether you're looking at separately managed accounts, whether you're looking at exchange traded fund ETFs, there's a lot of different ways to get exposure to the muni market. But with the huge amount of choices you have to make, I think a lot of individual investors would just let a professional with the experience do it.Mark Schmidt: And active managers let you customize portfolios to your unique tax situation and risk tolerance. So, Craig, a final question for you. How do munis fit into a diversified portfolio?Craig Brandon: Munis are generally the stable part of most people's portfolios. Remember, you don't have a choice of whether you're going to pay your taxes or not. You have to pay your taxes, you have to pay your water bill, you have to pay your power bill. You have to pay tolls on highways. You have to pay airport fees when you buy an airline ticket, right?It's not an option. So, because the revenue streams are so stable, you see most muni bonds rated AA or AAA. The default rate for rated munis is significantly below 1 per cent. It's something in the ballpark of about 0.2 per cent*. So, with such a low default rate – listen, we're technically driven, as I said. You see ups and downs in the market. But over a longer period of time, munis can give you generally stable returns, tax exempt income over the long term, and they're one of the more stable asset classes that you see in your overall portfolio.Mark Schmidt: That sounds boring, and I mean that in the best possible way. Craig, thanks so much for your time today.Craig Brandon: Thanks, Mark, happy to be hereMark Schmidt: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*“US Municipal Bond Defaults and Recoveries, 1970-2021” – Moody's Investor ServicesDisclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The returns referred to in the commentary are those of representative indices and are not meant to depict the performance of a specific investment.Risk ConsiderationsDiversification does not eliminate the risk of loss.There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective. Portfolios are subject to market risk, which is the possibility that the market values of securities owned by the portfolio will decline and that the value of portfolio shares may therefore be less than what you paid for them. 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The April employment report...wasn't what everything thought it was. Not even close. What has changed is the narrative surrounding what are shaky numbers all the way around. The question everyone is asking isn't if the labor market is "good enough", it's now whether it is "bad enough." Here's what the data actually says about that. Eurodollar University's conversations w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Basel III, gold, and the decline of the U.S. dollar—in this video, Taylor Kenney explains how global banking rules are quietly repositioning gold from a commodity to tier one money. You'll learn why central banks are stockpiling physical gold, how Basel III exposes weaknesses in the current financial system, and what this shift could mean for global markets, inflation, and the future of U.S. monetary dominance.Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcastor Call 866-349-3310

Japan was, they said, on the cusp of generational shift. The real outlier in a growing tide of reversals, BoJ was still hiking still anticipating an inflationary recovery. It has all come crashing down, globally synchronized. But not before one final plot twist. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you are in any way interested in precious metals,  you need to see what today's video sponsor, Monetary Metals, is doing with them at the link below: http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/The Treasury Secretary spoke through the financial media to Jay Powell. He had a very simple message for the Fed Chair: pay attention to the 2s. And Ronald McDonald. It's not just the Treasury market. If only that was the case, there is also a close relationship - therefore strong warning - coming via the oil market, too. This is already why OPEC is itself shifting to recession economics.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Bessent Says Two-Year Treasuries Signaling Fed Should Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-01/bessent-says-two-year-treasuries-are-signaling-fed-should-cutBloomberg Understanding the Unlikely Saudi Push for Lower Oil Priceshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-05-01/opec-puzzle-understanding-the-saudi-push-for-lower-oil-pricesCNN McDonald's just had its worst quarter since Covid. It said customers are getting nervoushttps://www.cnn.com/2025/05/01/investing/mcdonalds-earnings-first-quarter-2025https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

A slew of economic reports from around the biggest global economies. Starting with US GDP, then Mexico, Germany and Europe then finally some critical macro data from China. There is indeed a common thread running through all of them, and it has markets spooked: CtG hit a new multi-year low barely above the 2020 lows. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Private payroll growth slowed to 62,000 in April, well below expectationshttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/adp-jobs-report-april-2025.htmlBloomberg Mexico Economy Narrowly Dodges Recession Amid US Trade Chaoshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/mexico-economy-narrowly-dodges-recession-amid-trump-trade-chaosCNBC Euro zone economy expands by better-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarterhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/euro-zone-gdp-q1-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Another day, another crash; or crashes. Conference Board expectations plunged to their lowest level since 2011. Another Fed PMI plummets. Two-year Treasury yields hit their lows. All pointing to that Beveridge transition.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisConference Board Consumer Confidence April 2025https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Apr-2025Atlanta Fed GDPNowhttps://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowBloomberg Economists Say Trade War Makes US Recession Almost a Coin Fliphttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-04-25/economists-say-trade-war-makes-us-recession-almost-a-coin-fliphttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

If you were to go off of only data collected by the Federal Reserve on the economy, you'd be left with no other option than to see it at best on the doorstep of full-blown recession. Yet, officials argue inflation anyway. The real question is where all this information and evidence instead fits the "labor curve." Unfortunately, the Fed's numbers all fall on flat. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFed Beige Book April 2025https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20250423.pdfTexas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504#tab-reporthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU