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U.S. financial markets are experiencing unprecedented overvaluation, and as market valuation becomes a target for investment behavior, it loses reliability as an economic health indicator. Today's Stocks & Topics: Stop Orders, Market Wrap, SPGI - S&P Global Inc., PLD - Prologis Inc., Should Central Banks Target Financial Decisions?, Inherited IR-A, RYAN - Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc., VSGX - Vanguard ESG International Stock ETF, Trailing Stops, Timing the Market, WTV - WisdomTree U.S. Value Fund, SCHD - Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF, Trump and the Oil Industry Production.Our Sponsors:* Check out Fabric: https://fabric.com/INVESTTALKAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWebinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlYahoo!finance Canada's interest rates will likely fall. Where will they end up?https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-interest-rates-will-likely-fall-where-will-they-end-up-150459864.htmlCBC Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since 2017, excluding pandemichttps://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-unemployment-november-1.7403156Bloomberg Canada Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.8%, Raising Odds of Big Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/canada-jobless-rate-jumps-to-6-8-raising-odds-of-big-cutFinancial Post Canada's unemployment rate rises to 6.8%, raising odds of jumbo interest rate cuthttps://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-rises-to-6-8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWebinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlSCMP China's consumer inflation hits 5-month low, leaves room for more stimulushttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3289917/chinas-consumer-inflation-falls-short-november-factory-price-drag-continuesBloomberg China Signals Bolder Stimulus for Next Year as Trump Returnshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-shifts-monetary-policy-stance-for-first-time-since-2011https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
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The BLS labor data had a chance to show that October's weakness really was just a combination of one-off factors, instead did everything to confirm that it wasn't those at all. That includes the headline payroll number, too. Unemployment is up and, when you properly account for everyone, up A LOT. Just like Canada.Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metresign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Wild week for a market that's supposed to be boring and go unnoticed. For the second straight month, heavy buying in bills right ahead of the payroll report. Except, in this case, buyers went utterly crazy for the 8-week bill in one of the most incredible bill auctions. But what is all this mess about? Yen, securities lending, and recession. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
If you are looking for some entertaining Christmas presents, we have some celebratory “One of the 17 Million” Brexit mugs, my new album and other goodies for sale in the Dominic Frisby Shop. Take a look. Something positive for you this Sunday morning - and why we should be grateful for government incompetenceThe idea of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), money that governments and their planners will be able to programme, rightly fills many of us with an Orwellian sense of dread.“Did you not have the vaccine? Oh, well then you don't qualify for the next payment.”“Have you been saying wrong things on social media? Then you don't get the good loan rates.”“We suspect that you might not have paid the right rate of tax, therefore we are deducting what we think you owe and it's up to you to prove otherwise. You want the money back? Please hold …. Your call is important to us.”CBDCs allow for almost unimaginable interference in our lives, intrusions on our privacy and liberty, never mind meddling in the economy. Chinese social credit scores would be just the start of it.When you combine the instincts of, say, the current Labour administration to intervene, together with its incompetence, the ramifications are truly horrifying.Some say CBDCs are inevitable. Technology is destiny and all that. I'm a bit more optimistic. Hete's why.CBDCs have been piloted in numerous countries and fully implemented in:* The Bahamas - the "Sand Dollar"* Nigeria - the "eNaira"* Jamaica - "JAM-DEX"* The Eastern Caribbean Currency UnionNowhere has got them to work. The Bahamas is generally touted as the CBDC success story. My buddy, Dave Skarica, who lives there says, “LOL. I have never seen one person use it.”Why have they failed? People don't use them. When they do use them, they don't work. People prefer the legacy systems they know.CBDCs are yet another government IT project that is doomed to fail.If you are thinking of buying gold to protect yourself in these uncertain times, I recommend The Pure Gold Company. Pricing is competitive, quality of service is high. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe or you can store your gold with them. More here.You might say the internet was a government IT project. It was . The U.S. government - via ARPA and later DARPA - provided crucial funding that led to the development of key protocols like TCP/IP. But the Internet succeeded because of the immense infrastructure that millions of people, mostly working in their own self-interest, since built over many decades on top of it.Our modern system of debt-based fiat money should long since have imploded under the weight of all the abuse and debasement successive governments have heaped upon it. But it has survived, indeed thrived as a medium of exchange, albeit a terrible store of wealth, because of the incredible fintech architecture that has been built on top of it, again by millions of people over many decades mostly acting in their own self-interest. That architecture is probably what has saved the system. Fiat money is just promissory - worse than that it is a promise of something that isn't even there - but the incredible advances in communication technology that we have seen in the last 150 years - telecommunications, digital technology and all the rest of it - have all enabled the sending and recording of those promises. The fortunes that have been invested have all helped the system evolve and indeed preserved it.Fiat money worked as countries gradually abandoned gold standards over the course of the 20th century because they were the only currencies citizens knew. The payment and saving infrastructure was already built and normalised. The coins and notes and cheques and bank accounts all functioned perfectly well, and there were no alternatives. The removal of the gold backing did not really impact the overall architecture.Government currencies worked in the first place because they were based on gold and silver, which everybody already used and instinctively knew had value. When they weren't debasing their money, rulers, or those working for them, often actually improved the system: coinage, for example, certified the amount of precious metal in a coin and the ruler's stamp legitimised it. Money was based on something people already knew and used and understood. Not so CBDCs. They have no existing infrastructure around them, nor is their use normal. Governments will not be able to design anything decent. They will need the private sector to do that, and this will take many years, perhaps decades before it gets as good as the infrastructure around existing payment systems. It would also take many years and lots of nudges for people to change habitsThe private sector is not going to invest the required amount of money in payment systems if people are not going to use it, so you will end up with a situation, a bit like green energy, where governments will have to spend billions subsidising it in order to make it work, but the actual energy you get is not as good as that provided by fossil fuels: unreliable, more expensive and more damaging to the environment. There will not be the same green arguments - 10 years to save the planet and all that - to justify the spending. The scope for corruption and crony capitalism will be enormous. Again.You really should subscribe.None of this will stop governments trying it, of course. Citizens might slowly start to use the system, particularly if they get free handouts, but it will be a long time before CBDCs reach a level where they compete with existing payment systems. At this point fiat money as we now know it probably won't exist anyway. We tend to forget, but most nations as we currently know them are only about 200 years old. Many won't exist in 50 or 100 years time. They'll go bankrupt and break apart. What will happen to their money?There is the possibility of demanding that taxes are paid in CBDCs, I suppose, but again this opens up so much scope for outcry, waste and inefficiency, I just can't see it working.People within the blob look at bitcoin and admire it and think they can copy it, but even bitcoin is what it is, not so much because of Satoshi Nakamoto's genius invention, but because of the way hundreds of thousands of people in the free market embraced it and built on top of it. The reason they did was, again, self-interest: the value of bitcoin kept going up. Every bit of bitcoin fintech, every podcast, every tweet - every transaction. They all help the bitcoin price. It's a colossal open-source contribution and movement. There is not the same incentive with CBDCs. Their value is never going to go up. Quite the opposite. Their value will fall as governments issue more and more of them. There is not the same incentive.To have any chance of working, CBDCs will require billions and billions of subsidy. Most governments do not have the resources. They are already bankrupt. They will struggle to justify the expense. Health or welfare or pensions or something will be deemed more important. Plus they will meet with huge resistance from the freedom-fighters and possibly even the media .None of this will stop them trying of course. But on this issue at least you can sleep soundly. CBDCs are one Orwellian nightmare that is not going to work. They will end up yet another failed government IT project.All ye from the future look back on this ‘ere prescient article and marvel at my foresight.If you are interested in this subject, take a look at my song, Programmable Money.Tell your friends about this amazing article.A reminder about those mugs, my album and other fun Christmas presents - all for sale in the Dominic Frisby Shop. Take a look. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.theflyingfrisby.com/subscribe
David Glasner is a UCLA-trained economist specializing in monetary theory and the history of economic thought. He has disagreed in print with Murphy's take on the famous Sraffa-Hayek debate. David first explains his general views and then comments on the debate.Bob's Paper, "A Problem With the Pure Time Preference Theory of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477aDavid's Paper "The Sraffa-Hayek Debate on the Natural Rate of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477bFor just $25, you can receive our December Bundle, including three essential reads:Tom DiLorenzo's Axis of Evil: America's Three Worst Presidents, Per Bylund's How to Think About the Economy,and Murray Rothbard's What Has Government Done to Our Money?. Claim your bundle now at Mises.org/HumanAction24The Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree
David Glasner is a UCLA-trained economist specializing in monetary theory and the history of economic thought. He has disagreed in print with Murphy's take on the famous Sraffa-Hayek debate. David first explains his general views and then comments on the debate.Bob's Paper, "A Problem With the Pure Time Preference Theory of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477aDavid's Paper "The Sraffa-Hayek Debate on the Natural Rate of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477bFor just $25, you can receive our December Bundle, including three essential reads:Tom DiLorenzo's Axis of Evil: America's Three Worst Presidents, Per Bylund's How to Think About the Economy,and Murray Rothbard's What Has Government Done to Our Money?. Claim your bundle now at Mises.org/HumanAction24The Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree
Sign up for the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlEurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Dec 5, 2024 – In today's FS Insider podcast, we're going to discuss how bitcoin got to $100,000 looking at its philosophical and technological foundations with early seed investor and leading Bitcoin expert Trace Mayer who began investing...
David McAlvany targets $3,000-$3,250 for gold prices as the metal makes new highs. He says October set a record for central banks buying gold, and he thinks the trend will continue. “Where gold goes, silver will follow,” he adds. Agnico Eagle (AEM), Franco-Nevada (FNV), and Newmont (NEM) are among his favorite names for miners. ======== Schwab Network ======== Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribe Download the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185 Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7 Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watch Watch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-explore Watch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/ Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
The Global FX Strategy team discusses FX implications from upcoming DM central bank decisions, including the ECB, SNB, BoC & RBA. They also parse the USD response to this week's Nov US payrolls report. Speakers Meera Chandan, Global FX Strategy James Nelligan, Global FX Strategy Patrick Locke, Global FX Strategy This podcast was recorded on 06 December 2024. This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4851138-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
Starting next week we have monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank, Swiss National Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia. These along with a few key data releases set the tone for the week after which is promising to be a blockbuster week, when we have the Fed, Bank of Japan and Bank of England, plus a few central banks in Asia all on deck. We also have a special segment in this episode where we focus on the 2025 outlook for Asia. Chapters: US (01:56), Europe (08:04), Asia (13:26), Asia 2025 Outlook (14:43)
Welcome to the latest edition of Liquidity Link Live, your exclusive market analysis provided by Northern Trust Asset Management, one of the world's largest cash managers. Tune in each month to discover the very latest insights on the UK, Eurozone and US markets. This edition was recorded on the 5th November 2024.
Recessions are a process and what past episodes all have in common is one key ingredient. Rather, one element that comes up missing every time. This critical factor doesn't just end up being the difference between downturn and full-blown contraction, it also turns a recession into a depression. And we've got the data for it plus how 2024 fits into the pattern. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisRobert Shimer Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemploymenthttps://home.uchicago.edu/shimer/wp/reassess.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The Christmas shopping season is off to a poor start, with dim results coming in from various sources showing lower traffic and slower spending. The reason is easy enough to identify, starting with the latest labor report from the government. Hiring fell sharply before summer and never came back, all of that leading up to the holidays.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg Tally of US Shoppers Slipped During Key Holiday Weekendhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/tally-of-us-shoppers-slipped-during-key-holiday-weekendCSA Cyber Monday online sales hit new record of $13.3 billionhttps://chainstoreage.com/cyber-monday-online-sales-hit-new-record-133-billionInvesting.com US JOLTs Job Openings Surpass Forecasts, Indicating Stronger Labor Markethttps://za.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-jolts-job-openings-surpass-forecasts-indicating-stronger-labor-market-93CH-3450582Observer.com ‘Ghost Jobs' Are on the Rise—And They Are Hurting More Than Just Job Huntershttps://observer.com/2024/06/ghost-job-rise-labor-data/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushes back against President-Elect Donald Trump when it comes to the independence of the Central Bank. That story kicks us off on this the 4th day of December and thanks for being with us again. Meanwhile, if you want to hook up with us on social media you can find us all day on Twitter or "X" @IOB_NewsHour and on Instagram. Facebook? Sure were there too. And our website is just a click away where you can scroll through all of our newscasts. Here's what we've got for you today: "The Central Bank must remain independent of politics."; The assassination of UnitedHealth CEO, Brian Thompson Rocked Iowa and the Nation; We revisit the Australian law about social media and kids; Taking a cruse to Mexico? It will cost you more; The WWE wants more eyeballs. Cue Netflix; The incoming head of the SEC and what we know; The Wall Street Report; Which is better? The battle of the weight-loss drugs. Thanks for listening! The award winning Insight on Business the News Hour with Michael Libbie is the only weekday business news podcast in the Midwest. The national, regional and some local business news along with long-form business interviews can be heard Monday - Friday. You can subscribe on PlayerFM, Podbean, iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher or TuneIn Radio. And you can catch The Business News Hour Week in Review each Sunday Noon Central on News/Talk 1540 KXEL. The Business News Hour is a production of Insight Advertising, Marketing & Communications. You can follow us on Twitter @IoB_NewsHour...and on Threads @Insight_On_Business.
AIB's Chief Economist David McNamara and AIB Treasury's John Heffernan break down the latest Irish Purchasing Managers Index reports for the Manufacturing and Service sectors, including trends across the sectors and insights into the Irish economy. Visit our website and subscribe to receive AIB's Economic Analysis direct to your inbox. You can also find us on Twitter @TreasuryAIB . Our full legal disclaimer can be viewed here https://aib.ie/fxcentre/podcast-disclaimer. Registered in Ireland: No: 24173 Allied Irish Bank p.l.c is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland AIB Customer Treasury Services is a registered business name of Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c. Registered Office: 10 Molesworth Street, Dublin 2
After a weekend of disappointing macro data (which was characterized as "mixed"), China's markets tanked. Not stocks, of course, instead more record lows in bonds plus a very sharp drop in CNY. As we know only too well, CNY DOWN = BAD and yuan is right back near multi-year lows. It's not the only one, either. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBloomberg China's Factory Activity Expands in Sign of Slow Recoveryhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-s-factory-activity-continues-expansion-in-sign-of-recoveryBloomberg China's 10-Year Yield Sinks to Record Low on Bets PBOC Will Easehttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-s-10-year-yield-is-heading-toward-record-2-on-easing-betsBloomberg China Skips Politburo Readout as Investors Await Stimulushttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-02/china-skips-politburo-readout-as-investors-await-stimulus-cluesBloomberg China Home Sales Drop Again as Sustained Stimulus Effect Missinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-30/china-home-sales-drop-again-as-sustained-stimulus-effect-missinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
New concerns from a key voting member of the FED about the Central Bank's next move. Plus, a judge throws out a massive pay package for Elon Musk again. And later, there was upheaval in the auto sector. What former Ford CEO Mark Fields says about the major shifts in the industry.
Climate change, and policies that governments implement to address it, increasingly have macroeconomic impacts that are relevant for Central banks. But, within their remit, what actions can monetary policymakers take, and what actions should they take? These are questions that Frank Elderson is well qualified to answer. He is a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, he is co-Chair of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Risks of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and he was the first Chair of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. He tells Tim Phillips about the instruments available to the ECB, the contribution of the NGFS, and the limits of monetary policy in addressing the urgent challenge of climate change.
The Keeping it Real Assets podcast continues! Join us for our new mini-series as we explore the themes of Innovation in Infrastructure with real-life, implemented examples from across Igneo's Portfolio Companies. We are delighted that Simon Montague from the GIAA is hosting this series. In this the second episode in our Innovation in Infrastructure Series, Simon is joined by Mike Maudsley, CEO of enfinium. As one of the UK's leading energy from waste operators, enfinium is supporting the UK's journey to a Net Zero economy. enfinium is operating and developing six decarbonisation hubs around the UK and is using waste that would otherwise go to landfill to generate homegrown energy. Simon and Mike explore the highly innovative, highly debated and highly complex opportunity for the energy transition that could be made possible using Carbon Capture and Storage technology. If you truly want to understand this debate-this is the podcast episode to listen to!**********************Important informationThis material is for general information purposes only. It does not constitute investment or financial advice and does not take into account any specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs. This is not an offer to provide asset management services, is not a recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any security or to execute any agreement for portfolio management or investment advisory services and this material has not been prepared in connection with any such offer. Before making any investment decision you should consider, with the assistance of a financial advisor, your individual investment needs, objectives and financial situation.We have taken reasonable care to ensure that this material is accurate, current, and complete and fit for its intended purpose and audience as at the date of publication. No assurance is given or liability accepted regarding the accuracy, validity or completeness of this material and we do not undertake to update it in future if circumstances change.To the extent this material contains any expression of opinion or forward-looking statements, such opinions and statements are based on assumptions, matters and sources believed to be true and reliable at the time of publication only. This material reflects the views of the individual writers only. Those views may change, may not prove to be valid and may not reflect the views of everyone at Igneo Infrastructure Partners or First Sentier Investors.About First Sentier InvestorsReferences to ‘we', ‘us' or ‘our' are references to Igneo Infrastructure Partners or First Sentier Investors (as applicable). First Sentier Investors is a global asset management business which is ultimately owned by Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Igneo Infrastructure Partners is an unlisted infrastructure asset management business and is part of the First Sentier Investors Group.We communicate and conduct business through different legal entities in different locations. This material is communicated in:[1]Australia and New Zealand by First Sentier Investors (Australia) RE Ltd, authorised and regulated in Australia by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (AFSL 240550; ABN 13 006 464 428) European Economic Area by First Sentier Investors (Ireland) Limited, authorised and regulated in Ireland by the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI reg no. C182306; reg office 70 Sir John Rogerson's Quay, Dublin 2, Ireland; reg company no. 629188)Hong Kong by First Sentier Investors (Hong Kong) Limited and has not been reviewed by the Securities & Futures Commission in Hong Kong. First Sentier Investors and Igneo Infrastructure Partners are business names of First Sentier Investors (Hong Kong) Limited. 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SC079063, reg office 23 St Andrew Square, Edinburgh, Scotland, EH2 1BB)United States by First Sentier Investors (US) LLC, authorised and regulated by the Securities Exchange Commission (RIA 801-93167)other jurisdictions, where this document may lawfully be issued, by First Sentier Investors International IM Limited, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA ref no. 122512; Registered office: 23 St. Andrew Square, Edinburgh, EH2 1BB; Company no. SC079063).To the extent permitted by law, MUFG and its subsidiaries are not liable for any loss or damage as a result of reliance on any statement or information contained in this document. Neither MUFG nor any of its subsidiaries guarantee the performance of any investment products referred to in this document or the repayment of capital. 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Jon Frost of the BIS Office for the Americas and Holti Banka from the World Bank dive into fast payments and central bank digital currencies, exploring their key differences and similarities, and looking into what the future holds.
European banks have added a massive amount of government bonds to their holdings. At the same time, they refuse to lend into the real economy. Europe's depositories are hardly alone as we see the same defensive behavior all over the global system. There is only one reason why they all have become so incredibly defensive. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van MetreWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlBlack Friday/Cyber Monday Sale at Eurodollar Universityhttps://www.eurodollar.university/black-fridayhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
This week campaigning in Ghana comes to an end as candidates make their final arguments in an election where every vote counts. For most people, Ghana's economic turmoil has been at the top of concerns. In 2022 the Central Bank lost $5 billion in one year. The government asked the International Monetary Fund for a bailout and there have been accusations that the economy has been mismanaged High inflation has left many unable to afford basic goods, levels of unemployment are rising and hundreds of thousands of people have been pushed into poverty. So the next government will have the daunting task of easing hardship for millions and getting the economy back on its feet. In today's Africa Daily, Alan Kasujja will be looking at what's gone wrong and how the two main presidential candidates- Mahamudu Bawumia and John Mahama- plan to fix it.There will be a lot more on Ghana's elections from our sister programme Newsday. James Copnall will be broadcasting live from the capital Accra on Friday morning- the day before polls open.
In this episode of The Wellness Project, we are joined by the inspiring Deirdre O'Neill, a dual-qualified lawyer with a master's in Medical Law from King's College London and the co-founder of Hertility Health. Hertility is revolutionising women's reproductive health by offering accessible, at-home testing kits that provide critical insights into fertility and hormonal health.Deirdre shares her journey to founding this pioneering company, why women's health has been overlooked for so long, and the vital importance of taking control of our wellbeing through knowledge of our reproductive health. We also explore how Hertility's innovative services are empowering women and discuss the larger systemic issues in medical research and healthcare representation for women. We can't wait to hear what you think. Irish Life Health members can now access Hertility's at-home test kit and get advanced insights into hormonal imbalances, including your ovarian egg reserve as well as be screened for up to 18 conditions that can impact reproductive health. In as little as ten days you will receive your Doctor-written report explaining your results with suggested next steps for any follow up care you may need. Access the Female Fertility Assessment and Consultation through your Irish Life Health online account for more information. The Irish Life Health Female Fertility Assessment and Consultation benefit is available on selected hospital plans from 1st October 2024 and on all hospital plans from 1st November 2024. Terms and conditions apply. See your table of cover and membership handbook for details. Irish Life Health dac is regulated by Central Bank of Ireland.The IMAGE Wellness Project is powered by Meaghers Pharmacy and in association with Activia, Its4Women Insurance, Irish Life Health and KIND Snacks. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
India's RBI just recently has gone *massively* short the US dollar and in the NDF market, too, just to keep the crumbling rupee from sinking even more. This won't work exposing the central bank to losses and also potentially amplifying the downdraft in the currency. A big update on the fundamentals explains.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg India Plows Into NDF Market as It Fights Back Against Dollarhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-plows-into-ndf-market-as-it-fights-back-against-dollarBloomberg India's Growth Shocker Puts Pressure on RBI to Cut Rateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-economic-growth-weakens-to-almost-two-year-lowBloomberg India's Falling Wages Squeeze Urban Middle Class and Economyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/india-s-falling-wages-squeezes-urban-middle-class-and-economyBloomberg RBI Inquiries on Liquidity Spur Speculation of Action Next Weekhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/rbi-inquiries-on-liquidity-spur-speculation-of-action-next-weekhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect's online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war. Analysis and events referenced in this episode:Event: The World in 2025https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsGlobal Drop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respondhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respondData: China Activity Proxyhttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxyIs a bubble in India's stock market deflating?https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating
An entire batch of corporate reports from retailers to computer-makers, just in time for the key holiday season's critical moment. Each one warning that consumers in the US just aren't there, being held back. Why? The government also reported today with the answer to that question, the one factor that ties it all together. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisBloomberg Inflation-Battered Consumers Are Going to Extreme Lengths to Nab Holiday Dealshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/black-friday-deals-in-us-have-been-transformed-by-inflationBloomberg Kohl's Troubles Deepen as Retailers Call Out Weak Spendinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/kohl-s-cuts-sales-outlook-on-weaker-spending-on-clothes-shoesCNBC Retailers saw a dismal fall quarter. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/consumers-retailers-post-election-economic-outlook-rcna181794CNBC HP forecasts first-quarter profit below estimates on sluggish demand in PC markethttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/26/hp-earnings-report-q4-2024.htmlBloomberg Dell and HP Inc. Fall After Reporting Disappointing PC Saleshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-26/dell-reports-sales-that-miss-estimates-on-setback-for-pc-markethttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The Central Bank of Ireland and the Insight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics at the University of Limerick have announced a landmark collaboration to push the boundaries of artificial intelligence (AI) and data science for public good in Ireland. This research partnership, set to run for over six years, aligns with Ireland's National AI Strategy by advancing research that builds public trust, improves policy outcomes and cultivates the next generation of AI talent. The collaboration will see the Central Bank of Ireland funding a dedicated PhD programme in AI and data science, hosted by the Insight Research Ireland Centre and the University of Limerick but available to all eligible researchers across the nation. The partnership will initially provide funding for six PhD studentships, focusing on applying AI and data science to achieve outcomes like safer financial systems and better outcomes for consumers of financial services. These research projects will address challenging issues including responsible AI, financial crime, AI risks and regulation, cyber and climate risk. This collaboration is designed to produce evidence-based research with practical, real-world applications. Central Bank of Ireland and Insight researchers will work together to deliver better analytical insights and, ultimately, better policy outcomes. In line with the national AI strategy, this collaboration seeks to expand Ireland's capacity for AI and analytics by creating PhD-level opportunities that nurture skilled researchers. By building a pipeline of AI talent equipped to tackle emerging challenges in Ireland, the programme will contribute to the national AI ecosystem and help shape the direction of future AI research. Trevor Fitzpatrick, Central Bank of Ireland, commented: 'AI is an important technology for financial services firms and for central banks and is becoming more central to the provision of financial services for firms and households. It poses both benefits and risks. This partnership programme provides additional capacity to deepen understanding of applications of AI and data science, to safeguard consumers and the financial system and to broaden the Bank's research base.' Professor James Gleeson, Professor of Industrial and Applied Mathematics at the University of Limerick, said: 'Deep understanding of data science and AI is crucial for applications and regulation, so training of PhD students is very important to Ireland's future. We are delighted to be collaborating with the Central Bank of Ireland on this innovative and ambitious programme.' Professor Noel O'Connor, CEO of Insight Research Ireland Centre, said: 'AI is transforming the world with potential impacts on many aspects of society. It is important that trusted state entities like the Central Bank of Ireland not only keep pace but lead the way in developing safe and effective technologies to best serve the public interest. Insight is proud to partner with the Central Bank of Ireland on this ambitious initiative of data science for societal good.' Dr Siobhan Roche, Director of Research for the Economy at Research Ireland, said: 'Collaborative partnerships advancing innovative research are essential for overcoming the challenges of our time. This programme will generate new knowledge underpinning policy development and will build vital skills and capacity in the area of AI, with the potential to position Ireland as a leader in the responsible use of AI. It's fantastic to see the Insight Research Ireland Centre for Data Analytics and the Central Bank of Ireland using their collective expertise to create positive policy outcomes and cultivate the next generation of AI researchers.'
Japan's yen has diverged from other currencies over the past few weeks, strengthening against the dollar. That suggests more carry trading dynamics, an interplay between different versions of them. Yes, there is more than one carry trade and understanding the distinctions is key to getting a sense of possible vulnerabilities here.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlReuters Explainer: What are Japan's tactics based on latest suspected intervention?https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/what-are-japans-tactics-based-latest-suspected-intervention-2024-07-18BIS Bulletin The market turbulence and carry trade unwind of August 2024https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull90.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Live from Bitcoin Beach in El Zonte, El Salvador, I'm joined by Hermann Buhr-Vivier, the inspiring founder of Bitcoin Ekasi in South Africa. Hermann shares the incredible story of how he's using Bitcoin to transform a South African township, starting with a surf program that's been running for over a decade. We talk about how Bitcoin integrates into their circular economy, the struggles and triumphs of building grassroots adoption, and how paying coaches and local merchants in Bitcoin is creating generational wealth.We dive into their latest projects, like building a permanent education center, the buzz around the Bitcoin Bowl skate park, and even how they've been painting murals on shacks to spread Bitcoin awareness. Hermann also gives us an inside look at the bigger picture—supporting Bitcoin adoption projects across Africa and hosting a Bitcoin conference in Cape Town this January.Whether it's onboarding merchants, empowering kids to save, or watching a community transform through proof-of-work, Hermann's story will leave you inspired. Oh, and if you've ever dreamed of a Bitcoin-friendly surf trip to South Africa, Hermann's got you covered too! Don't miss this one.- MikeSupport and follow Bitcoin Beach:https://twitter.com/Bitcoinbeachhttps://www.instagram.com/bitcoinbeach_sv/https://www.tiktok.com/@livefrombitcoinbeachWeb: https://www.bitcoinbeach.com/Follow Bitcoin Ekasi:X: https://x.com/BitcoinEkasiYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0BJ9ZD6JXKzJUtXfhy2pSgWebsite: https://bitcoinekasi.com/Unravel Surf X: https://x.com/UnravelSurfBrowse through this quick guide to learn more about the episode:0:00 - Introduction1:25 - What's New at Bitcoin Ekasi? Latest Updates and Community Impact2:22 - What Are the Plans for Bitcoin Ekasi's New Community Center?4:37 - What Is Bitcoin Ekasi and Why Was It Started?7:06 - How Has Apartheid's Legacy Shaped South African Townships Today?10:34 - How Did Bitcoin Ekasi Integrate Bitcoin into Its Programs?12:26 - What Made Bitcoin a Lifeline for Businesses in South Africa?13:38 - What Challenges Do People Face When Adopting Bitcoin for Payments?15:18 - How Did Bitcoin Ekasi Onboard Coaches and Local Shops?18:09 - How Did Bitcoin Change the Financial Lives of Surf Coaches?20:15 - Can Bitcoin Help Build Generational Wealth for Low-Income Families?23:59 - What's the Shack Painting Program and How Does It Promote Bitcoin?26:33 - What Is a Bitcoin Circular Economy and How Does It Work?27:36 - What Is Bitcoin Ekasi's Vision for Its New Education Center?30:17 - Why Do Bitcoin Communities Need Physical Spaces for Education?32:38 - What Is the Bitcoin Diploma Program and How Does It Work?34:08 - What Is the Bitcoin Bowl and Why Is It a Big Deal in South Africa?39:24 - Why Is Bitcoin Important for South Africa's Economy?43:05 - When Is the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Cape Town?45:57 - What Are the Most Exciting Bitcoin Projects Across Africa?50:50 - Which African Countries Are Adopting Bitcoin the Fastest?54:50 - How Are Bitcoin Projects in Africa Overcoming Challenges?1:01:12 - Can Bitcoin Help Kids Develop Financial Skills for the Future?1:02:44 - How Can You Support Bitcoin Ekasi and Join a Surf Tour?1:05:03 - What Are Bitcoin-Friendly Surf Tours in South Africa Like?Live From Bitcoin Beach
This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump's threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who'll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond? Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.Analysis and events referenced in this episode: How to think about tariffshttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffsCanada, China and Mexico in Trump's firing linehttps://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-lineDrop-In: US tariffs – How they'll work, what they'll do and how the world will respond https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond
Several critical financial measures continue to drop, reaching rather obscene comparisons. At first, that doesn't seem to make any sense; how would today be seen as similar to February 2009, for example. However difficult the economy is now, it certainly isn't that bad. What these measures are indicating go beyond specific moments, instead providing clues about a progression. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWEBINAR DEC 11 w/Jim RickardsSign up: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Changing demographics mean we should also look beyond current thinking on dependency ratios that generally assume retirement at 65. So said Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland Gabriel Makhlouf in a speech last night. So is it time we increase the state pension age? We discussed this with Cormac Lucey Economics Commentator with The Sunday Times and Nat O'Connor, Age Action's Senior Policy Advisor.
With Ireland's population ageing at a faster rate than almost any other European country, the Central Bank of Ireland's governor Gabriel Makhlouf has said that people need to be working past 65, and that policies incentivising this should be considered.Joining Kieran to discuss is Economist at TU Dublin, Emma Howard People Before Profit TD for Dublin South-Central, Bríd Smith and Sinéad Brady, Career Psychologist & author of ‘Total Reset'.
Is the bond selloff over? What caused it in the first place? With European rates, in particular, heading lower on recession (more than) risks, the tendency of Treasuries to converge with them raises the chances yields may not have much farther to go if they aren't topped out already. Given the fundamental background, it appears to be a matter of time more than anything. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metrehttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
This Sunday, we are thrilled to welcome author and speaker Daniel Thompson-Mills to The Amish Inquisition Podcast! Daniel, co-author of the eye-opening book “The Truth of How Money is Created & the Financial System – How a Small Number of People Siphon Off the Vast Majority of the World's Wealth for Themselves and How To Change This”, will be joining us to delve into the intricacies of the financial system.
The European situation is getting to be truly serious. And that means growing problems for...the dollar. Not the exchange value against other currencies, rather why that exchange value is rising and how trouble in Europe means trouble in global money. European banks have been back in a big way at the black hole's center. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisPresident Ford Economic Report to Congress 1975https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sites/default/files/books/presidential-documents-archive-guidebook/the-economic-report-of-the-president-truman-1947-obama-2017/1975.pdfECB Financial Stability Reviewhttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/fsr/ecb.fsr202411~dd60fc02c3.en.pdfECB Euro area banks as intermediators of US dollar liquidity via repo and FX swap marketshttps://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/financial-stability-publications/fsr/focus/2024/html/ecb.fsrbox202411_04~9a4d04b582.en.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
China and Japan selling record amounts of Treasuries. Do they hate the dollar? Donald Trump? You and me? Not only will we answer the questions, while those countries saw huge selling of USTs, curiously the Cayman Islands got a truly massive deposit of them and it showed up during July, August and September. Seems very carry trade-y. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
A double whammy on US consumers. First, the government issued an alarming update to the biggest jobs data there is. Then retail giant Target stunned with its Q3 results and more so its guidance for Q4. The thing is, both of those are related; two sides of the macro coin. The one says the summer started really badly, the other it didn't get better. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters Target raises 2024 profit forecast as price cuts draw shoppershttps://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/target-raises-annual-profit-forecast-after-price-cuts-boost-quarterly-sales-2024-08-21/CNBC Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two yearshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.htmlBloomberg Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Cuts Profit Outlookhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-20/target-tgt-trims-profit-outlook-on-inventory-buildup-higher-costsCNN As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmarthttps://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
For episode 453, CEPO Joshua Maddox joins Brandon Zemp on the show to discuss COTI, a Layer 2 solution on Ethereum designed for digital payments using its own blockchain protocol. COTI has made significant strides implementing garbled circuits on the real live blockchain in the first time allowing to secure multi-party computation (MPC) and enabling parties to jointly compute functions over their inputs while keeping those inputs private. Recently, COTI Chosen to Participate in Central Bank of Israel's CBDC Project alongside companies like PayPal and Fireblocks. COTI was founded in 2017 and has since raised over $500M in funding from prominent investors, including Cardano's cFund, Borderless Capital, and Cardstarter. Before leading the ecosystem & partnerships at COTI, Joshua was the head of developer ecosystem and grants at Provenance Blockchain Foundation, Designed, led, and launched the largest grants program for regulated financial services on blockchain, distributing over $50 million. ⏳ Timestamps: 0:00 | Introduction 1:05 | Who is Joshua Maddox? 5:42 | What is COTI? 6:42 | What makes COTI the fastest privacy layer in Web3? 10:42 | COTI ecosystem use-cases 15:14 | Mainnet launch 15:57 | COTI & Bank of Israel CBDC project 22:13 | Benefits of CBDCs 23:13 | Privacy-on-Demand 25:48 | COTI Roadmap for 2025 28:10 | COTI Community
Warren Buffett continues to sell tens of billions worth of stocks. Everyone wants to know why. This divergence between major stock index most likely holds the answer. Normally stock indexes don't mean much beyond their beauty, yet they can be important signals at times like now when they do diverge in such an obvious and sustained way. This is a key cyclical one, too. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisCNBC Berkshire Hathaway's cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybackshttps://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/02/berkshire-hathaways-cash-fortress-tops-300-billion-as-buffett-sells-more-stock-freezes-buybacks.htmlFranklin-Templeton https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/equity-markets/the-foundry-quandary-owning-semis-late-in-the-cycleDeloitte Industry Outlookhttps://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/semiconductor-industry-outlook.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The Federal Reserve reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, especially credit cards and auto loans. That wasn't all, as the New York branches also showed record high rejections strongly indicating where things really stand in the credit cycle. As a result, we have to pay some attention to CRTs, otherwise known as SRTs, the latest financial engineering akin to the 2020s version of credit default swaps. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisFRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report Q3 2024https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.htmlBloomberg Ally Auto Borrowers With 2022 Loans Now Struggling, CFO Sayshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/ally-auto-borrowers-with-2022-loans-now-struggling-cfo-saysBloomberg Ally's Charge-Offs, Bad-Loan Provisions Beat Expectationshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/auto-lender-ally-reports-stronger-than-expected-debt-managementFederal Reserve Frequently Asked Questions about Regulation Qhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/legalinterpretations/reg-q-frequently-asked-questions.htmhttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
Another retailer finds out the 2021 "recovery" was mostly an illusion. Prices may have soared and revenues looking good, it didn't last because it couldn't. As the company closes hundreds of stores and prepares to lay off an unknown number of workers, more stats show this is no isolated case. The cycle continues and continues to take its toll on businesses and workers alike. Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
The yen and the euro are good currency indicators of global monetary conditions, but there are a couple even better and more consistent signals. When the 'dollar' goes up and these two are taking the hit because of it, that's when you really need to pay attention. It's not Trump, Jay Powell, interest rates or just random chance. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysishttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU
The dollar index jumped to a more than two-year high leaving everyone to ask why. Some say Trump, others the Fed. They might as well have said it was Burger King (who blames Wendy's). Though the dollar is rising here in the short run, to really understand what's going on you have to consider more than just developments in November 2024. This has been in the works for several years. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisReuters US dollar continues uptrend as Fed policy provides lifthttps://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-over-two-month-high-yen-near-150dlr-2024-10-15/Bloomberg Wall Street Sees Dollar Soaring More, But Splits on How Muchhttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-12/dollar-s-trump-fueled-rally-unites-wall-street-on-bullish-betshttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU