The Political Risk Brief

The denizens of “Gucci Gulch” have fallen on hard times. For even the largest lobbying firms, average monthly retainers have declined during the last decade. To add insult to injury, this lobbying recession has occurred amidst unprecedented overall prosperity for Washington, D.C. Episode 22 of the Political Risk Brief podcast explores this curious trend and corporate political competition in an era of lobbying stalemate.

Leaders in government and business should recognize America's social capital collapse as the most serious threat to the nation's political stability and economic strength. In this episode, Baron analyzes the policy implications of a nation “falling apart” and explores potential solutions.

Even as the U.S.-China economic relationship remains pivotal, Beijing increasingly denies outsiders visibility into the nation's intentions and governance. Previous approaches to understanding and shaping Beijing's views – whether utilizing either high-prestige “fixers,” or on-the-ground data sources – have proven unreliable. In episode 20 of the Political Risk Brief, the Baron team presents the firm's recently released Influencer Analytics research on the people, businesses, and institutions that matter to Beijing.

Philanthropic foundations today act as major competitors in policymaking, often dwarfing the efforts of even the largest private enterprises. Although commonly unrecognized or underestimated, massive not-for-profit organizations increasingly shape the elite policy consensus. In this episode, the Baron team discusses this “invisible hand” guiding political competition and recommends approaches for business leaders.

The health care sector has entered a period of intensified political conflict. Building for decades and accelerated by powerful external forces, this clash of some of the nation's largest companies promises to affect millions of Americans and reveals important lessons regarding corporate competition waged through the arena of government. The Baron team reviews the history of health care politics and the emerging trends shaping America's largest economic sector.

Often in American political life, an individual or small group embodies an era. In this episode, Baron explores Washington's current man of the moment: Jeffrey Zients. His rise to the pinnacle of national political power reveals fundamental insights into America's contemporary political elite.

The ever-changing competition to shape policy in Washington, D.C. challenges even the most experienced practitioners. In this episode, the Baron team distills the critical government relations trends that define the current government relations and issue advocacy landscape.

Corporate America's relationship with the Republican Party is undergoing the most significant change in four decades. The movement driving this shift: National Conservatives, or “NatCons.” What is national conservatism? Who are the NatCons? If successful, how will NatCons alter the long-dominant GOP policy consensus in support of free trade, low corporate taxes, and light antitrust enforcement?

America's leading corporations appear poised for a dramatic escalation in engagement of Washington, D.C. Baron explores this emerging phenomenon by examining Amazon's massive investment in the nation's capital, which threatens to ignite an influence arms race among the Fortune 100.

With Taiwan now a focal point of U.S. foreign policy, Episode 13 explores how Washington has come to view China-Taiwan tension. The Baron team explores major blind-spots on the U.S. side, including the role of predictions, the value of ambiguity, and concepts of sovereignty.

The federal government is the world's biggest customer. Public sector procurement increasingly drives private sector innovation and tips markets. In Episode 12, the Baron team details the shifting dynamics of U.S. government procurement and offers a practical guide for understanding the business and political implications of the private sector's public sector future.

The increasing wealth and near-total enlistment of the nation's capital into a partisan mission risks creating a permanent state of conflict between the federal government and half the electorate. In Episode 11, the Baron team discusses how such tension threatens to mire the U.S. public sector in debilitating dysfunction and create massive challenges for business leaders. 

Will American populism meaningfully change policy? In Episode 10, the Baron team attempts to determine the actual resonance of the reformist ideas now challenging the postwar consensus. To test the thesis of populist ascendancy, the firm applied Influencer Analytics to antitrust, quantitatively studying the specific populist movement that aspires to reshape competition law and enforcement. The result: a detailed understanding of the Super Influencers who dominate the debate and a demonstration of their capacity to impact entire business sectors.

America's defining quality – trust – appears in serious decline. If so, how will this redefinition of the nation's civilizational character change business, politics, and the public square? In this episode, Baron investigates declining American trust and the implications.

Even as the geopolitical competition between the United States and China intensifies, China's access to U.S. markets continues largely unconstrained.  Moreover, China's largest companies appear poised to contest sectors long dominated by U.S. firms. In this episode, Baron offers key insights into China's accelerating expansion into international markets, the implications for U.S. business and political leaders, and the overall state of the U.S.-China Great Power contest.

Antitrust policy in the Unites States has been dominated for four decades by the consumer welfare standard.  Now, a new generation of antitrust policy makers seeks to return to the doctrines of an earlier era and exact revenge for the alleged transgressions of neoliberalism.  In this episode, Baron offers key insights into America's dawning age of reinvigorated antitrust enforcement, with profound consequences for the nation's largest businesses and emerging enterprises.

The pursuit of influence consumes Washington, D.C. Companies and organizations spend billions to engage the thought leaders and decision makers who drive policy outcomes. Yet, determining the individuals who exert true and lasting influence often eludes even the most sophisticated political strategists. In this episode, Baron explores the challenge of reliably identifying and understanding influence.   

Corporations that assume policy-making powers invite the wrath of the ultimate monopolist: government.  Baron details what business leaders and policy observers should expect in the coming years from Washington as politicians seek to constrain companies as unwelcome competitors for political power.

Explore the true driver of America's rising healthcare costs: plummeting population health. The confluence of America's declining health, shifting political demography, and rising populism promise to increase political risk to the healthcare sector. Baron details what business leaders and policy observers should expect in the coming years from Washington.

Explore the six powerful drivers of the world's largest bilateral economic relationship and the defining geopolitical rivalry of our era. Despite decades of extensive contacts with their counterparts in China, U.S. business and political leaders continue to struggle with the mysteries of Beijing's behavior. This episode examines the nature, origins, and implications of U.S.-China competition. Read Baron's https://baronpa.com/library/super-trends-in-the-u-s-china-relationship/ (publication) on the topic.

With the conclusion of America's quadrennial election cycle, how do private-sector interests now compete and prevail in Washington, DC? Distilling more than 15 years of work with market leaders, the Baron team explores the approaches of the most effective enterprises to driving policy outcomes. The conversation pursues five questions central to winning in Washington:  1.       What is “Washington”? 2.       Who are the competitors? 3.       What defines victory? 4.       What are best practices for winning?  5.       How is enduring success achieved?  

Twenty years ago this September 19, the U.S. Senate rendered a decision that continues to define American politics. The Senate's vote to approve Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) with China ensured enactment, propelling the geopolitics of the twenty-first century and unleashing the populism that increasingly animates the American electorate. In this inaugural episode of the Political Risk Brief, Baron's leadership analyzes the political forces that drove the 2000 legislative outcome, the damage inflicted on the elite policy consensus in the aftermath of PNTR with China, and the implications today for political and business leaders.  Read Baron's https://baronpa.com/prb/the-vote-that-changed-the-world/ (publication) on the topic.