Commodity Week

The June 18, 2026, Commodity Week panel analyzed current agricultural market fundamentals, prioritizing export demand, domestic crop conditions, and macroeconomic shifts. China recently purchased 4.8 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, yet long-term fulfillment of their 25-million-metric-ton commitment remains uncertain pending tariff adjustments and sustained export competition from Brazil. Domestically, the market is bracing for upcoming USDA acreage and grain stocks reports, with analysts anticipating slight increases in soybean acreage and noting discrepancies in feed and residual data driven by heavier cattle slaughter weights. The recent Cattle on Feed report indicated a 102% year-over-year inventory, though overall beef production projections remain inexplicably low according to the panel. Furthermore, U.S. corn crop conditions vary drastically based on planting dates, with early-planted corn thriving while late-planted fields struggle against excessive moisture. Finally, macroeconomic volatility is expected to persist as the new Federal Reserve leadership implements a strictly data-driven policy approach, strengthening the U.S. dollar and emphasizing the need for producers to actively execute pricing orders amidst shifting fundamentals.Panelists - Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net - Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk.com - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

The June 11, 2026 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, evaluated the contrasting environmental and structural shifts altering the global agricultural landscape. Ellen Dearden highlighted severe weather disparities across the US Midwest, where central Illinois recently faced excessive rain and wind damage, while portions of South Dakota and Nebraska continue to suffer from severe drought and expanding wildfires. Ted Seifried analyzed the subtle domestic demand adjustments and global production updates in the June USDA WASDE report, noting that while US ending stocks remained relatively flat, surprise production increases for corn crops in Brazil and Argentina present long-term competitive threats to US exports.The panelists further scrutinized fund flows and international demand dynamics, emphasizing that the recent market slide is heavily driven by index funds liquidating historic long positions as previous alternative energy and fertilizer supply narratives lose momentum. This speculative exit coincides with stagnant buying activity from China, which continues to meet its immediate processing needs through cheaper, high-volume South American soybean supplies rather than turning to the US. Consequently, Matt Darragh projected that the US may only realize about half of the USDA's targeted 25 million metric ton export volume to China for the 2026–2027 marketing year, reflecting the global pricing edge and storage advantages held by Brazil and Argentina. Additionally, the panel briefly addressed the risk of the New World screwworm, noting that its spread is primarily a hazard tied to livestock transportation patterns rather than simple fly migration.On the global front, Darragh shared insights from Kpler regarding the softening wheat and fertilizer sectors. Global wheat contracts continue to face downward pressure from high carryover stocks and intense export competition out of Russia, Ukraine, and Europe, though looming El Niño conditions could severely penalize Australian crop yields later in the season. Meanwhile, critical supply chain vulnerabilities persist in the fertilizer sector, where 37 vessels laden with roughly 2 million tons of fertilizer products remain bottlenecked in the Middle East Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz. While down from a peak of 50 vessels in May, these ongoing logistical constraints and export limits from major producers threaten to trigger a delayed, severe impact on global crop production extending into the 2027–2028 marketing year.Panelists- Matt Darragh, Kpler - Birmingham, UK- Ellen Dearden, AgReview - Morton, IL- Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge - Chicago, IL ★ Support this podcast ★

In the June 4 edition of Commodity Week, host Todd Gleason and panelists Logan Kimmel, Sherman Newlin, and Shane Holtorf analyze the recent, severe sell-offs across the agricultural grain markets. The discussion highlights a 12-day consecutive drop in wheat futures—exacerbated by fund liquidations and crude oil market trends—that consequently dragged down corn and soybean prices. While domestic crush capacity provides a baseline of support for soybeans, the panel emphasizes that renewed export demand from China is critical for a sustained price recovery. Looking ahead to the late June acreage report and the potential for summer weather volatility, the analysts caution producers against liquidating grain at current lows. Instead, they recommend establishing calculated, profitable price targets for both old and new crop inventory and keeping working orders actively placed with buyers to capture any sudden market bounces. Finally, the panel notes rising volatility in the livestock sector due to screwworm headlines, urging cattle and hog producers to aggressively manage their downside risk.Panelists- Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag- Sherman Newlin, Zaner Ag Hedge- Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag ★ Support this podcast ★

The May 28, 2026 edition of Commodity Week centers on the volatility and risk management challenges currently facing the agricultural sector. Analysts Naomi Blohm and Arlan Suderman emphasize that geopolitical tensions, specifically the conflict involving Iran and the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, are creating significant headline risk that could drastically impact crude oil and fertilizer prices for the 2027 crop year. Domestically and globally, unpredictable weather patterns—including hot and dry forecasts in the United States and potential production struggles in Brazil and India—are adding uncertainty to crop yields and input costs. With December corn and November soybeans testing key technical support and resistance levels, the panelists urge farmers to establish written marketing plans to mitigate emotional decision-making. Furthermore, shifting global trade dynamics, such as Brazil overtaking Argentina in soybean meal exports and ongoing USMCA negotiations with Canada and Mexico, underscore the critical need for producers to execute objective sales strategies during seasonal price highs.Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com ★ Support this podcast ★

The May 21st episode of Commodity Week featured a panel discussion with Todd Gleason, Curt Kimmel, Dave Chatterton, and Collin Watters regarding the current state of agricultural markets. The discussion focused on several key drivers, including weather, the potential for significant Chinese agricultural purchases, and the impact of renewable fuel policies like renewable diesel on the grain market. While the panel expressed optimism for a strong market, they noted that geopolitics and international relations, particularly with China, continue to create uncertainty and volatility for producers. Panelists emphasized the need for producers to remain flexible and opportunistic in their marketing strategies, suggesting that while current conditions are supportive, market participants must navigate potential supply chain, logistical, and political challenges to maximize profitability.Panelists: - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Collin Watters, ILCorn.org ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelist- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing- Brian Stark, The AndersonsThe May 14 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, features panelists Greg Johnson, Chip Nellinger, and Brian Stark analyzing several critical agricultural market drivers. The panel extensively reviews the latest USDA WASDE report, highlighting a projected 3-million-acre reduction in corn plantings and emphasizing a slim margin for error in global crop supplies. They also note an unexpected decrease in total corn demand alongside an increase in soybean demand. Geopolitical tensions factor heavily into the market outlook, with the panel observing negative market reactions to the lack of immediate agricultural purchase agreements following recent US-China meetings, particularly as China currently relies on cheaper Brazilian soybeans. Additionally, they discuss the broader macroeconomic risks of crude oil hovering near $100 per barrel while markets await further clarity regarding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.Shifting to domestic factors and producer strategies, the panelists advise farmers to capitalize on strong eastern cash basis levels and recent market rallies. Specifically, they suggest rewarding $12 soybean futures with sales, while indicating less urgency to sell $5 corn unless summer weather issues materialize. On the policy front, the House's passage of year-round E15 ethanol legislation is characterized as a long-term infrastructure development rather than an immediate demand shock. Finally, the panel observes that Midwest crop planting progress remains highly sporadic due to variable wet and dry weather conditions. ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists- Garrett Toay, AgTraderTalk.com- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.comThe May 7 edition of Commodity Week features analysts Mike Zuzolo and Garrett Toay discussing current agricultural and energy market conditions. The panel notes that while recent rains have aided corn and soybean planting in parts of Kansas and Illinois, dry conditions have led to significant abandonment of hard red winter wheat in states like Kansas and Nebraska. The analysts draw parallels between tightening supplies in the wheat and crude oil markets, attributing the latter to macroeconomic factors such as geopolitical conflicts, military actions affecting Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. These structural uncertainties, alongside a pending meeting between Trump and Xi and the upcoming USDA WASDE report, are heavily influencing agricultural trade, particularly concerning Chinese demand for US soybeans and the influx of Brazilian beef. Given the high market volatility, both analysts advise producers to rely on paper positions rather than immediate cash sales. ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists- Ellen Dearden, AgReview- Logan Kimmel, Roach Ag- Arlan Suderman, StoneXThe April 30 broadcast of Commodity Week examines agricultural marketing strategies amid geopolitical and economic volatility. Panelists urge producers to utilize current market rallies to execute incremental grain sales for the 2026 and 2027 crop years. The market is currently heavily influenced by speculative fund investments maintaining long positions in grains and cattle, which elevates price floors but increases market volatility. Geopolitical factors, such as the ongoing Iranian war and high global energy costs, are driving inflation and creating long-term concerns regarding fertilizer supplies into 2027. Furthermore, anticipation of a mid-May summit between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi suggests potential shifts in trade agreements, with China likely targeting imports of U.S. beef, pork, and wheat rather than soybeans, alongside complex negotiations regarding biofuel feedstocks and used cooking oil. ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelist- Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.netThe April 16 edition of Commodity Week, hosted by Todd Gleason, featured panelists Naomi Blohm, Greg Johnson, and Jim McCormick analyzing the current agricultural market landscape and the geopolitical factors influencing it. A primary focus was the potential shift in planting acres from corn to soybeans across the Midwest, driven by elevated input costs—specifically diesel and fertilizer—and compounded by heavy spring rainfall delaying field work. These fertilizer price spikes are being exacerbated by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, which have trapped shipping vessels in the Persian Gulf and prompted countries like India to heavily subsidize and secure global fertilizer supplies. The panel also evaluated grain marketing strategies, with Greg Johnson noting farmers still may be holding roughly 30% to 35% of their old crop corn in anticipation of a price rally. However, the experts warned that unless significant weather issues or war-driven crude oil spikes emerge by mid-summer, old crop basis could crash as elevators reach capacity ahead of the fall harvest. Consequently, they urged producers to consider moving their remaining grain sooner rather than later to avoid logistical bottlenecks and dropping prices. ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag Marketing - Chuck Shelby, RMCommodities a Div of Zaner  - Ted Seifried, Zaner Ag Hedge ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists- Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalFarmMarketing.com - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing- Seth Vander Weide, Logic Ag Marketing- Sherman Newlin, Risk Management Commodities Zaner Financial ★ Support this podcast ★

All Day Ag Outlook Corn Panel - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net - Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

...from the All Day Ag Outlook- Ellen Dearden, AgReview- Greg Johnson, TGM Total Grain Marketing- Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net- Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com ★ Support this podcast ★

All Day Ag Outlook Tuesday, March 3The Beef House in Covington, Indiana$40 @ go.illinois.edu/alldayagoutlookPanelists - Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net  - Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Ellen Dearden, AgReview - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Greg John, TotalGrainMarket.com - Sherman Newlin, RMCommodities.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing - Brian Stark, The Andersons - Arlan Suderman, StoneX ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com - Jim McCormick, AgMraket.net - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Ellen Dearden, AgReview - Chuck Shelby, RMCommodities.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com ★ Support this podcast ★

- Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com- Eric Snodgrass, NutrienAgSolutions- Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Ellen Dearden, AgReview ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Aaron Curtis, MID-CO - Matt Darragh, Kpler - Mike Zuzolo, Global Commodity Analytics ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelist - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Shane Holtorf, LogicAg.com - Chip Nellinger, BlueReefInc.com - Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com - Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com - Sherman Newlin, RMCommodities.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Ellen Dearden, AgReview - Ted Seifried, Zaner.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Aaron Curtis, MID-CO.com - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com - John Zanker, RMCommodities.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Shane Holtorf, LogicAg.com  - Collin Watters, ILCorn.org - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com - Chip Nellinger, BlueReef.ag ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

USDA REPORT DAY Panelists- Ellen Dearden, AgReview- Greg Johnson, TGM- Shane Holtorf, Logic Ag Marketing ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com - John Zanker, RMCommodities.com - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com - Collin Watters, Illinois Corn Growers Association  ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net - Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com  - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing  - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Chuck Shelby, RMCommodities.com - Brian Splitt, AgMarket.net - Chip Nellinger, BlueReef.ag ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Ellen Dearden AgReview - Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Joe Janzen, University of Illinois - Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net - Greg Johnson, TotalGrainMarketing.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★

REGISTER online at willag.org or directly https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/6400720528166392662 ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net - Chip Nellinger, BlueReef.Ag - Arlan Suderman, StoneX.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com- Jim McCormick, AgMarket.net ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Dave Chatterton, SFarmMarketing.com - Brian Stark, AndersonsGrain.com ★ Support this podcast ★

Panelists - Greg Johnson, TGM TotalGrainMarketing.com - Logan Kimmel, RoachAg.com - Mike Zuzolo, GlobalCommResearch.com ★ Support this podcast ★