Podcasts about Strait

Middle East correspondent Madeline Croad spoke to Melissa Chan-Green about negotiations between the US and Iran set to take place shortly according to Donald Trump. The US president says he cancelled "massive" strikes against Iran to get closer to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, specific details around the meeting are scarce.

HOW TRUMP'S U.S. STUPIDLY ENGINEERED ITS OWN HUMILIATIONThis week, Nick Cohen interviews Phillips O'Brien, a professor of strategic studies at St. Andrews University, about the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran. O'Brien explained how Iran has effectively "toyed with America" by continuing attacks despite Trump's attempts to de-escalate, forcing the U.S. to resume military operations. He describes how Iran is exploiting two key American vulnerabilities: Trump's need to declare victory and the pressure on U.S. allies in the Gulf region.Phillips highlights the significant depletion of America's missile stockpiles, noting that the U.S. and its partners are firing as many Patriot missiles in one week as they would build in a year. He criticises the corruption and division within American institutions, including the military, which he said has been compromised by Trump's promotion of loyalists over competent officers. Phillips and Nick discuss Iran's potential war aims, including control over the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining their nuclear program, sanctions relief, and withdrawal of U.S. military presence in the region. Phillips concludes that the conflict would likely end after the November 2026 election, as the war has become increasingly unpopular and pressure would mount on Washington to find a settlement.Read all about it!Read Phillips' own regular Substack column - Phillips's Newsletter. Phillips is also professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews.Nick Cohen's @NichCohen4 regular Substack column Writing from London on politics and culture from the UK and beyond is another must-read. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

For review:1. US Sec of State Rubio raised concerns about Cuba's ability to infiltrate and influence top-level U.S. institutions, detailing what he described as a dangerous Cuban spy network that is undermining American interests. 2. Secretary of State Rubio: Diplomatic Efforts in the Coming Weeks to Restart Moscow - Kiev Negotiations.3.  The Pentagon is giving up leadership of a U.S.-led NATO command in Germany that coordinates military aid to Ukraine. Another NATO member will eventually take over running the Security Assistance Group, according to a U.S official.4.  A deal is being mediated to return the United States and Iran to the memorandum of understanding the two countries signed last month, sources aware of the details told Israeli-outlet Channel 12 on Sunday. The deal would ensure that the Strait of Hormuz remains open for 60 days without fees and renew a ceasefire between the two sides, according to the report. 5.  Israeli airstrikes overnight Saturday and into Sunday killed at least 17 people, according to local health officials, and a senior Israeli minister vowed that strikes in the territory will not stop despite Hamas signing a US-backed disarmament plan and earlier reports that Israel agreed to halt attacks. The strikes followed similar heavy attacks on Saturday, which the IDF said targeted several Hamas weapon depots.6.  The U.S. Air Force's F-47 program has begun its engineering and manufacturing development phase and will fly in the coming years, a service official said.  The first Boeing F-47 is on track for its first flight in 2028. The Air Force plans to buy at least 185 F-47s, matching the size of the F-22 Raptor fleet it intends to replace. 7.  US Navy announced that it is awarding contracts for another round of ballistic missile and fast-attack submarines. The Defense Department is granting a collective $76.6 billion to General Dynamics Electric Boat for five Columbia-class submarines and to both General Dynamics Electric Boat and Huntington Ingalls Industries-Newport News Shipbuilding for nine Virginia-class submarines to be built in the coming years. 

//The Wire//2100Z July 31, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GIBRALTAR CRISIS CONTINUES AS 60,000 MIGRANTS FLOOD INTO SPAIN. ITALY TO SUSPEND SCHENGEN AGREEMENT WITH SPAIN DUE TO MIGRANT CRISIS. IRAN CONTINUES TARGETING KUWAIT AS UNITED STATES CONSOLIDATES POSITIONS IN MIDDLE EAST AMID IRANIAN TARGETING EFFORTS.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Spain: The situation regarding the migrant wave has continued to deteriorate sharply. After the perimeter fence was breached yesterday, the sheer waves of people crossing the border have devastated the enclave of Ceuta. Spanish authorities estimate that over 60,000 people have crossed the border since the perimeter breach last night, and most residents of the peninsula have been barricading themselves inside their homes as the sheer number of people in this small town is staggering. Home invasions and forced-squatting instances have been reported all around the peninsula, along with mass looting and destruction taking place. Throughout this morning, many migrants have also been observed crossing back into Morocco, after realizing that the small peninsula cannot sustain this many people, as water and food sources have been expended throughout much of the city.Analyst Comment: Additionally, videos surfaced overnight confirming that this effort is not entirely organic. Truckloads of migrants are deliberately being driven to the border fence and released into Spain with the active participation of the Moroccan government. Moroccan border guards have also been observed opening the fence from their side as well, allowing large crowds through gates separating the peninsula from the mainland.Europe: This morning, the Italian government has suspended their Schengen Agreement with Spain, cutting off free travel between the two nations. The Interior Minister for Finland also voiced support for Italy's decision, urging other EU member states to likewise close their borders with Spain.Analyst Comment: Spain losing visa-free access to Italy is a big deal, as Italy one of the largest economies in Europe and cross-border trade between Spain and Italy amounts to roughly €70 billion per year. The Schengen agreement does specifically allow for the temporary halting of the pact as a measure of last resort, which Italy has enacted. If more nations follow suit, Spain could be in quite a tough spot that will probably result in a complication of trade in the short term. -----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, the war remains much the same as before, with most strikes targeting American bases in Kuwait. No strikes have been reported in Jordan yet today, but satellite imagery is still pending coverage since the strikes on al Salti a few days ago. The United States has reportedly turned around a few vessels in the Gulf of Oman, which if true, confirms that the American blockade is still in effect to some degree. Similarly, Iranian sources claim to have struck two more tankers somewhere in the Gulf or Strait of Hormuz, but the UKMTO has not confirmed this yet (which they might not do, as they also underreported successful strikes a few weeks ago). In Iraq, Arab news sources are reporting that the drawdown of the American presence in Erbil is nearly complete, and that all missile defenses have been withdrawn from this installation and relocated elsewhere. Though the scale of the American withdrawal in Iraq is not exactly being openly advertised, moving the remains of that Patriot battery are a big clue that the U.S. is looking to cede Iraq to Iran's sphere of influence. The Erbil airport was the last official American position in the nation (aside from the Embassy in Baghdad), so if the US has departed this base, this would be the first time in 23 years the US has not had a conventional military presence in Iraq. Now, the closest positions to Iran (from the western side), are in Kuwait. This is probably why Iranian strikes continue to focus on Kuwait, and the American bases within. This is not just intended to reduce the potential for more American ATACMS missile launches from the border region, but also to keep pressure on the United States, preventing the staging of aircraft at the handful of airbases in Kuwait.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

A single line in a must-pass defense bill can change U.S. foreign policy for years, and most people will never hear about it until it is too late. We dig into Section 219 of the NDAA and why critics say it moves beyond “supporting Israel” into something far more permanent: structural military integration that could lock U.S. decision-making to Israeli security priorities. I'm joined by David Benner of Liberty Vault to unpack what that kind of legal and bureaucratic merger could mean for sovereignty, accountability, intelligence risk, and the ability of voters to actually steer policy. From there, we move to the War Powers votes and the bigger pattern they reveal. Congress can avoid a clean authorization while the executive branch escalates a war with Iran, and members can even dodge going on record. We talk through why that political incentive structure exists, how bipartisan leadership responds to pressure, and why Israel can end up “on the sidelines” while the United States takes the hit. We also get into the Strait of Hormuz and why shutdown threats, base vulnerability, and escalation logic can quickly turn a “managed” conflict into a wider regional disaster. Then we connect the war to your wallet. Yemen's ability to threaten the Bab al Mandab chokepoint, plus rising shipping risk and fertilizer constraints, can feed into higher gas prices and delayed grocery inflation. We also break down the brutal math of modern air defense, where cheap drones can drain expensive interceptors and expose supply limits. If you care about U.S. war powers, Middle East conflict, Israel policy, and the real economic blowback of intervention, this conversation is for you. Subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review with your biggest question about Section 219 or the Iran escalation.

A nuclear power deal can sound like paperwork until the fine print turns into a proliferation crisis. We sit down with Jon Hoffman of the Cato Institute to unpack the reported US Saudi nuclear agreement and the real meaning of a “Section 123 agreement” under the Atomic Energy Act. The headline question is simple and unsettling: does this cooperation keep a civilian program civilian, or does it open the door to Saudi uranium enrichment and a future regional arms race? We also dig into why the timing is so politically loaded. The original framework was tied to Saudi Israel normalization and the Abraham Accords, plus talk of a US security guarantee, but the region's wars keep reshuffling incentives. When leaders publicly “clarify” terms after reports of a signed deal, it creates uncertainty for nonproliferation safeguards, congressional oversight, and everyone watching whether US Middle East policy is driven by strategy or leverage. From there, we zoom out to the battlefield and the map. Yemen, the Houthis (Ansar Allah), and the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint collide with rising Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz, putting oil flows and global prices at risk. We push back on escalation rhetoric, ask what “victory” even means without objectives or an exit plan, and talk through hard constraints like depleted US missile interceptor stockpiles. Finally, we turn to Israel's posture and the worsening situation in the West Bank, where settler violence and annexation fears keep growing as the world looks elsewhere.

Welcome to The Daily Wrap Up, an in-depth investigatory show dedicated to bringing you the most relevant independent news, as we see it, from the last 24 hours (8/2/26). As always, take the information discussed in the video below and research it for yourself, and come to your own conclusions. Anyone telling you what the truth is, or claiming they have the answer, is likely leading you astray, for one reason or another. Stay Vigilant. !function(r,u,m,b,l,e){r._Rumble=b,r[b]||(r[b]=function(){(r[b]._=r[b]._||[]).push(arguments);if(r[b]._.length==1){l=u.createElement(m),e=u.getElementsByTagName(m)[0],l.async=1,l.src="https://rumble.com/embedJS/u2q643"+(arguments[1].video?'.'+arguments[1].video:'')+"/?url="+encodeURIComponent(location.href)+"&args="+encodeURIComponent(JSON.stringify([].slice.apply(arguments))),e.parentNode.insertBefore(l,e)}})}(window, document, "script", "Rumble");   Rumble("play", {"video":"v7bg38e","div":"rumble_v7bg38e"}); Source Links (In Chronological Order): (1) John Ziegler on X: "RT @atrupar: BASH: How do you prepare for the next pandemic? That's part of your job now RFK Jr: We did almost everything wrong BASH: But…" / X New Tab (1) tinfoilhatgirl82 on X: "Wow. Talk about low information voter. Do these people interact with the general public. If they did they wouldn't say stupid shit like this" / X (1) The Last American Vagabond on X: "RFK Jr. says he wants people to get the MMR vaccine: https://t.co/tfObQSteCW" / X (2) Shannon on X: "When the Democrats take power, the Republicans will suddenly be concerned about the debt. Bookmark this." / X New Tab Spain's Weaponized/Engineered Migration, Trump Flounders In Iran & The Coming Third Party Deception La Guardia Civil detecta a agentes de inteligencia de Marruecos entre los migrantes que se colaron en Ceuta A look at Israel's decades-long covert intelligence ties with Morocco | The Times of Israel Israel-Morocco defense deal opens door to intel sharing, joint drills | The Times of Israel Israel and Morocco bolster cybersecurity and intel ties - Israel & Jewish News - JNS Morocco and Israel will collaborate on military intelligence systems Morocco, Israel agree to expand military cooperation | Africanews (2) coloradokid233@gmail on X: "@TLAVagabond @Lukewearechange The young turks was talking about this last night, I cam recommend!" / X (2) Nhawk2174 on X: "@TLAVagabond @Lukewearechange No he didn't" / X Your Deleted Shit Is Not Deleted, and Australian Cops Now Use Israeli Spyware to Prove It New Tab (2) The Last American Vagabond on X: "Now why does this feel so familiar? #ICE" / X (3) Jesus Freakin Congress on X: "

Russian security officials have described an explosion at a restaurant in Moscow, which killed three people, as an act of terrorism. They have not yet said who they believe to be responsible, but there is speculation of a link to the war in Ukraine.Iran says it is in the "final stages" of talks with Oman over management of the Strait of Hormuz. Andy Burnham has said he will be "relentless" in tackling small boat crossings to "bring back control" to the UK's border.The National Farmers' Union has warned that a prolonged drought could cause shortages of some food products in shops.

Listen to Daily Global #News from Grecian Echoes WNTN 1550 AM-Trump called off a massive new bombing against Iran , citing a deal that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Spain is reeling after more than 60,000 migrants breached its border into Ceuta in a single night, at least 67 dead. Greece is fighting wildfires on multiple fronts, two firefighters killed

Listen to Daily Global #News from Grecian Echoes WNTN 1550 AM-Trump called off a massive new bombing against Iran , citing a deal that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Spain is reeling after more than 60,000 migrants breached its border into Ceuta in a single night, at least 67 dead. Greece is fighting wildfires on multiple fronts, two firefighters killed

With Mark Selby, CEO of Canada NickelIngo Hofmaier, CFO of LIfezone MetalsRecording date: 30th July 2026Indonesia has fundamentally shifted its nickel strategy—from flooding global markets to actively managing supply through royalties, quotas, and pricing formulas since late 2025. Executives from Canada Nickel and Lifezone Metals describe this as a structural change, not a temporary adjustment. They argue that the era of nickel priced under $15,000 per tonne is over, with $18,000–$19,000 now representing Indonesia's break-even and preferred operating range.Physical supply constraints are compounding policy-driven discipline. Indonesian ore grades fell about 8% last year and are expected to drop another 4–5% this year. Meanwhile, mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production has slumped roughly 37% from its September 2025 peak, largely due to sulphur import bottlenecks tied to geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.On the demand side, the market continues to overemphasize electric vehicle batteries while underestimating stainless steel, which accounts for the bulk of nickel consumption and is growing steadily at 4.6–4.8% annually. Both executives contend that consensus forecasts around 3% annual demand growth lag real trends, which have averaged nearly 7% since 2019.Canada Nickel's Crawford project in Ontario recently secured a federal Decision Statement, clearing its final major regulatory hurdle. The company now focuses on closing the last 10–20% of its financing package, with a construction decision targeted for 2027. Strategic investors include Anglo American, Agnico Eagle, Samsung SDI, and the Taykwa Tagamou Nation.Lifezone Metals is advancing its high-grade Kabanga project in Tanzania, where nickel grades exceed 2%, supported by copper, cobalt, and silver byproducts. With over $800 million of its $930 million capex already tendered and $37 million in cash on hand, Lifezone seeks to finalize equity financing ahead of a Final Investment Decision. Construction could begin within two to three years thereafter.Together, these developments signal a tighter, more disciplined nickel market—one where Western sulphide projects may finally find viable economic footing.Sign up for Crux Investor: https://cruxinvestor.com

Trump says called off Iran attack at request of Tehran, Middle Eastern countries. Iran denies agreement reached on Strait of Hormuz. Reports 5 Lebanese army soldiers injured Israeli drone strike.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

【欢迎订阅】 每天早上5:30，准时更新。 【阅读原文】 标题：US launches more strikes on Iran as ceasefire teetersFighting escalates as Trump insists Strait of Hormuz remains open while Tehran says it is closed正文：The US has carried out a fifth round of strikes on Iran, sparking retaliation from Tehran, as hostilities escalated over control of the Strait of Hormuz.知识点：carry out phr. v. to perform or complete a task, order, or operation 执行；实施（任务、命令或行动）• The military carried out a rescue mission at dawn. 军方在黎明时执行了一次救援任务。• Scientists are carrying out experiments to test the new drug. 科学家正在开展实验以测试新药。【节目介绍】 《早安英文-每日外刊精读》，带你精读最新外刊，了解国际最热事件：分析语法结构，拆解长难句，最接地气的翻译，还有重点词汇讲解。 所有选题均来自于《经济学人》《纽约时报》《华尔街日报》《华盛顿邮报》《大西洋月刊》《科学杂志》《国家地理》等国际一线外刊。 【适合谁听】 1、关注时事热点新闻，想要学习最新最潮流英文表达的英文学习者 2、任何想通过地道英文提高听、说、读、写能力的英文学习者 3、想快速掌握表达，有出国学习和旅游计划的英语爱好者 4、参加各类英语考试的应试者（如大学英语四六级、托福雅思、考研等） 【你将获得】 1、超过1000篇外刊精读课程，拓展丰富语言表达和文化背景 2、逐词、逐句精确讲解，系统掌握英语词汇、听力、阅读和语法 3、每期内附学习笔记，包含全文注释、长难句解析、疑难语法点等，帮助扫除阅读障碍。

pWotD Episode 3377: Ceuta Welcome to popular Wiki of the Day, spotlighting Wikipedia's most visited pages, giving you a peek into what the world is curious about today.With 546,834 views on Friday, 31 July 2026 our article of the day is Ceuta.Ceuta (UK: , US: ; Spanish: [ˈθewta, ˈsewta] ; Moroccan Arabic: سَبْتَة, romanized: Sabtah) is an autonomous city of Spain on the North African coast. Bordered by Morocco, it lies along the boundary between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Ceuta is one of the special territories of members of the European Economic Area. Phoenicians founded a settlement in the La Almina Peninsula, which had continuity under Roman and Byzantine rule (Septem Fratres). It was annexed to the early caliphates upon the Islamic conquest of the Maghreb, only to be destroyed during the Berber Revolt. It was rebuilt in the ninth century by Majkasa Ghomaras. For much of the Middle Ages, regional powers north and south of the Strait of Gibraltar vied for control over Ceuta, which was a key contested port in the so-called Battle of the Strait. In 1415, it was annexed to the Kingdom of Portugal, and subsequently, after 1580, to the Hispanic Monarchy, with the city choosing to stay in the latter after 1640. Ceuta was a regular municipality belonging to the Spanish province of Cádiz prior to the passing of its Statute of Autonomy in March 1995, as provided by the Spanish Constitution, henceforth becoming an autonomous city.Along with the Canary Islands, Ceuta was classified as a free port before Spain joined the European Union. Ceuta's majority population is predominantly Arab Muslims (who comprise approximately 45% of Ceuta's residents) and Andalusian Christians, with a small minority of Sephardic Jews and Sindhi Hindus (from Pakistan). Spanish is the official language of Ceuta, while Darija Arabic (Ceuta Arabic dialect) is also widely spoken.This recording reflects the Wikipedia text as of 03:39 UTC on Saturday, 1 August 2026.For the full current version of the article, see Ceuta on Wikipedia.This podcast uses content from Wikipedia under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License.Visit our archives at wikioftheday.com and subscribe to stay updated on new episodes.Follow us on Bluesky at @wikioftheday.com.Also check out Curmudgeon's Corner, a current events podcast.Until next time, I'm standard Brian.

From impasse in Iran to still-unresolved conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, a trend is clear: President Donald Trump's scant, early plans for peace do not actually forge a path to it. Our correspondent says that in the driverless-car future, it will often be Chinese AI behind the wheel. And remembering Wally Funk, who never relinquished her ambition to become an astronaut. Watch extended clips from Insider, plus our full Elon Musk interview, here Guests and host:Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondentDon Weinland, China business and finance editorAnn Wroe, obituaries editorJason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”Topics covered: Iran war, Strait of Hormuz, diplomacyChina, AI, driverless carsWally Funk, astronautsListen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to The Economist. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From impasse in Iran to still-unresolved conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, a trend is clear: President Donald Trump's scant, early plans for peace do not actually forge a path to it. Our correspondent says that in the driverless-car future, it will often be Chinese AI behind the wheel. And remembering Wally Funk, who never relinquished her ambition to become an astronaut. Watch extended clips from Insider, plus our full Elon Musk interview, here Guests and host:Gregg Carlstrom, Middle East correspondentDon Weinland, China business and finance editorAnn Wroe, obituaries editorJason Palmer, co-host of “The Intelligence”Topics covered: Iran war, Strait of Hormuz, diplomacyChina, AI, driverless carsWally Funk, astronautsListen to what matters most, from global politics and business to science and technology—subscribe to The Economist. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

────────────────────────────────────────[00:02:12]Republicans Blame Fauci to Cover Trump's COVID War Crimes — Brian Schulhavy Names It CorrectlyRand Paul's hearing is misdirection; Trump launched Warp Speed, bragged about the shots; Fauci is evil but not the architect of the fraud.────────────────────────────────────────[00:09:47]Birx Accidentally Proves Trump Was Lying — Her "Malicious Compliance" Story Contradicts Everything He SaidShe claimed Democrat governors kept tight restrictions to hurt Trump; Knight: they took his money and followed his rules — she admitted he gave the orders.────────────────────────────────────────[00:13:41]Birx Admits "Next Time" Planning Is Underway — Knight: Flock Cameras Are the Enforcement InfrastructureShe said we need a dialogue about what to do next time; they're ramping up surveillance because they know people won't comply again.────────────────────────────────────────[00:16:18]One Third of the World's Fertilizer Goes Through the Strait of Hormuz — the Famine Clock Is RunningPrices already up 35%; yield failures from missed spring applications won't appear for 6-12 months; World Bank projects another 31% increase.────────────────────────────────────────[00:52:00]Millions of Cars Have a Dealer-Installed Tracking Device With a Universal Password — Even If You Said NoThe KARR alarm remains active even when declined; all units share one key; anyone in Bluetooth range can unlock, immobilize, or track the car via public Wiggle data.────────────────────────────────────────[01:05:39]Biedenbau: If a Little Monk Would Risk Being Burned at the Stake, I'll Risk What the Party Throws at MeWashington's farewell warned of false patriotism, agitated parties, foreign entanglements, and fiscal irresponsibility; we ignored all four.────────────────────────────────────────[01:10:41]Biedenbau Ran Against Trump's Chosen Candidate in Lindsey Graham's District — She Raised $900,000; He Couldn't CompeteSouth Carolina is one of seven states where hitting R is all you need; corporate money controls the field before the first vote is cast.────────────────────────────────────────[01:20:53]750,000 Constituents Per Congressman Is Insane — the Founders Wanted 30,000Each congressman represents only donors and corporate partners; remote representation is technologically trivial now — no giant building required.────────────────────────────────────────[01:26:41]Corporations Are Not Natural Persons — the Constitution Needs an Amendment to Distinguish ThemThe Supreme Court conflates them with citizens because there is no textual distinction; Citizens United-type rulings will keep flowing from the same premise.────────────────────────────────────────[01:56:55]Bombing Iran Locked In the Revolutionary Guard for Two Generations — and Triggered Regional Nuclear ProliferationEvery Arab country understands it needs a nuclear weapon to be left alone; Saudi Arabia is getting one with US help; Iran will double down. ──────────────────────────────────────── Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

Plus: Nuclear company Westinghouse Electric has confidentially filed for an IPO. And New York sues Kalshi, saying the company is running an illegal gambling operation. Alex Ossola hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josef Schachter to the show. Josef is the Founder of Schachter Asset Management Inc. Josef clarifies that the current energy market tightness is not a crude oil shortage but a severe refining capacity problem, particularly impacting Asia. While US production has surged to 24 million barrels daily, allowing for exports, a lack of refined products in Asia has driven local prices to the equivalent of over $150 per barrel. He attributes the volatility to geopolitical tensions, noting that oil prices swung from the high $90s to $67 before rebounding into the mid-$80s on renewed conflict fears. Schachter outlines three potential scenarios for oil prices. If peace talks succeed and the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab reopen, prices could fall back below $70, aided by China's massive strategic reserves and floating storage. If the conflict remains contained, a trading range between $70 and $94 is likely. However, a significant escalation involving Iran and key shipping lanes could push prices past the previous high of $119, potentially reaching $141.50. He warns that such a sustained spike above $120 would trigger severe global economic headwinds, combining with AI-driven job losses and high government debt to potentially cause a deep recession. From an investment perspective, Schachter sees energy producers as undervalued, trading on long-term price assumptions of $60-$65 oil despite his forecast of $80 average for the year and $90 in 2027. He highlights Canada as a particularly attractive region due to a new, supportive political stance toward fossil fuels, vast undrilled reserves, and discounted valuations compared to US peers. He advises that higher prices will economically transform lower-tier drilling inventory into highly profitable assets, offering significant upside for investors across the energy and service sectors. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:00:42 – Current energy market conditions 00:02:46 – Crude oil supply analysis 00:04:23 – Refined product shortages 00:09:28 – Floating storage discussion 00:14:40 – Oil Shortage Debunking Thesis 00:17:47 – Dire Straits, Situation 00:21:08 – Asia refining crisis 00:25:42 – Asian Demand & Implications 00:29:05 – Recession and price scenarios 00:31:58 – Oil producer investment opportunities 00:35:48 – Canada energy sector outlook 00:41:10 – Other Opportunities? 00:46:47 – Concluding Thoughts Guest Links: Website: https://schachterenergyreport.ca Subscription Discount for Palisade Listeners, $100 off the first year of our subscription, use coupon code “POD100” https://schachterenergyreport.ca/subscriptions/ Josef Schachter is a 40+ year veteran of the Canadian Investment Management Industry, Josef Schachter has experienced several exceptional and turbulent global economic and stock market cycles. With his primary focus in the stock market and the energy sector, Josef is able to weave global political, economic and monetary issues with current energy data into a compelling story of what's going on, what is to come, and why. Josef is a frequent guest on Michael Campbell's Podcast ‘Mikes Money Talks' and other podcast and radio shows and is often quoted in the media. He is a regular Guest Speaker at the annual World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver and he delivers presentations to various companies and organizations. For several years, he was a frequent and notably colourful commentator on BNN Bloomberg's Market Call. Josef provided Oil and Gas research to Maison Placements Canada geared to their institutional clients for 15 years ending April 2017, and was acknowledged as the first analyst in Canada to predict the Oil Price Plunge of 2014. Prior to establishing his firm Schachter Asset Management Inc. in 1996, Josef was the Chief Market Strategist at Richardson Greenshields, a Director of RGCL and a member of its Investment Policy Committee. He holds a Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a past Chairman of the Canadian Council of Financial Analysts.

The story we're being sold about Iran doesn't survive contact with the facts: if Iran's military is supposedly “obliterated,” why are US bases still getting hit and US troops still dying? We unpack that disconnect with Larry Johnson, walking through the mechanics of Iran's survivable deterrent from underground ballistic missiles to a layered Strait of Hormuz defense that mixes mines, small submarines, underwater drones, fast boats, coastal cruise missiles, and aerial drones. When the threat network is built to hide, move, and reappear, victory slogans don't matter nearly as much as geography and logistics. We also pressure-test the escalation chatter. If talk of “shaping operations” is meant to hint at a larger strike campaign or even a ground option, we lay out why the math turns brutal fast, using Qeshm Island as a concrete case and comparing what that kind of operation demanded at Okinawa. We then shift to what mounting casualties, shifting public opinion, and credibility gaps mean for US decision-making as the Pentagon and politicians try to manage the narrative. Finally, we connect the battlefield to your wallet and to the biggest strategic risk on the board. We trace how chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al Mandab ripple into global energy markets, sour crude availability, diesel and jet fuel supply, and broader economic pressure. Then we confront the question nobody wants to answer: does escalation push Iran to “review” its nuclear doctrine and demonstrate a nuclear capability as a deterrent? If you care about US foreign policy, Middle East war, shipping lanes, oil prices, and nuclear proliferation risk, this conversation puts the pieces together. Subscribe, share the episode, and leave a review, what do you think is the most realistic off-ramp from here?

0:30 - Mike Koolidge fills in for Dan 11:09 - Fauci Contempt of Congress 27:11 - Dr. Birx 45:24 - Andrew Collingwood, co-host of the Multipolarity podcast, explains why There is no alternative to the Strait of Hormuz. Andrew is also the writer of The Multipolarity Brief on multipolaritypod.substack.com 01:00:41 - Senior Fellow with the American Federation for Children, Patrick Graff, discusses his new report that shows 1.9m kids in Illinois could miss out on the education freedom tax credit if the Governor doesn’t opt in. For more on the American Federation for Children federationforchildren.org 01:20:43 - Founder of the Challenging Psychedelic Experiences Project, Jules Evans, on the rapid push to bring psychedelic drugs into mainstream medicine, and whether America is ready for it. For more on the Challenging Psychedelic Experiences Project challengingpsychedelicexperiences.com 01:34:59 - Associate Professor of Political Science at Kentucky State University, Wilfred Reilly, on immigration, integration and removing woke from the workforce. Follow Professor Reilly on X @wil_da_beast630 01:52:26 - Open Mic Friday!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ukrainian drone strikes hit Wildberries warehouses across Russia, with 16 distribution centres damaged or destroyed in the past fortnight. As the country's biggest online retailer faces disruption and a Lukoil oil refinery is also hit, we examine why Ukraine is targeting Russian business infrastructure.Also, oil prices rise after Iran stops two vessels attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz. We ask why crude has not surged even higher, and look at how China's hidden oil reserves have helped limit the impact on global markets.FIFA faces a growing backlash over plans to sell minority stakes in a new commercial entity controlling future tournament rights, with UEFA, other federations and senior figures inside FIFA pushing back against the proposal.Plus, we examine the collapse of an AI-focused hedge fund once valued at $45 billion, led by 24-year-old tech entrepreneur Leopold Aschenbrenner, after its assets were bought by a rival firm for less than $10 billion.Image Credit: STRINGER/EPA/Shutterstock

Since early 2026, disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and shifts in Venezuelan exports have shifted crude oil and product flows from their historical norms. On the U.S. domestic front, closures of West Coast refineries and proposed new pipelines to that region suggest more changes are coming.

Elon Musk may be looking to bring Tesla and SpaceX closer together, but a potential deal could raise major questions about China, defense contracts, corporate control, and just how much value is tied to Musk himself.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss reports that Tesla may sell its China business to clear the way for a potential SpaceX merger, why the combined company could resemble a Korean-style industrial conglomerate, and why Tesla and SpaceX may be more dependent on one person than any other major companies in the market. They also break down rising bond yields, climbing mortgage rates, Big Oil's surge in profits, and why capping oil company profits is not as simple as it sounds. Plus, they look at the Goldilocks inflation narrative, the wild surprises that shaped markets this week, the Strait of Hormuz autocorrect that stole the show, and why some drivers are going to extremes to avoid new car technology.

It has been five months since the US and Israel launched their war with Iran, and the conflict has never really been contained. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the UAE and Jordan have all been hit by Iranian missiles and drones, Hezbollah drew Lebanon into a fight that is still going on, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with neither talks nor military action producing a lasting reopening. Right now, though, no front is moving faster than the one closing in on Saudi Arabia, and it is coming from two directions at once. In Yemen, a strike on Sanaa airport and Houthi accusations against Riyadh in July reignited a conflict that had been largely dormant, leading within days to attacks on Saudi shipping, a Saudi strike on Hodeidah port, and a Houthi claim to have hit oil facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, potentially the first direct strike on Saudi oil infrastructure since 2022. In Iraq, months of accusations that Iran-backed militias were launching drones from Iraqi soil culminated this week in Saudi Arabia joining the US in direct, public strikes for the first time, a move Riyadh justified as an exercise of its right to self-defence under the UN Charter. In this episode of Beyond the Headlines, host Nada AlTaher is joined by Douglas Silliman, former US Ambassador to Iraq and now President of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, Hasan Alhasan, senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and Elizabeth Dent, senior fellow at the Washington Institute, to look at how Saudi Arabia's escalation fits into the broader trajectory of the US-Iran war.

SHIPPING is attempting to navigate three distinct, but increasingly overlapping conflicts at present. The resumption of Houthi violence in the Red Sea can be added to the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis and the Russia-Ukraine war in the Black Sea. This episode of the Lloyd's List podcast brings you highlights from our weekly webinar, chaired by editor-in-chief Richard Meade, in which we discussed whether the Houthis really have the power or capability to attack ships en masse again, plus our senior reporter Greg Miller gives a comprehensive overview of how the tanker market is responding to the crises. Joining Richard on the podcast are: Bridget Diakun, maritime intelligence and research director, Lloyd's List Greg Miller, senior reporter, Lloyd's List Ian Ralby, founder, IR Consilium

July 31, 2026 – Amazon's earnings, Apple's selloff, soaring Treasury yields, and AI spending continue to send conflicting signals across the market. So what's actually driving prices? Zach Abraham and Chase Taylor discuss why hyperscaler valuations continue to climb despite rising rates, whether Microsoft's accounting changes reveal a deeper issue with AI economics, why Amazon's capital spending could create opportunities elsewhere, and what today's market structure says about price discovery. They also break down developments in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the Fed's growing challenge as long-term yields rise, and why political incentives continue to shape economic decisions.

The US and Israel are considering a land blockade of Iran to increase economic pressure, senior Israeli sources told The Telegraph. The plan could involve urging neighbouring countries and regional partners to restrict border crossings and trade.Iran's IRGC said two offending tankers were hit and stopped, and four offending tankers quickly changed course. Additionally, the IRGC said the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and any transit and movement will be possible only with the coordination of the IRGC Navy. BoJ kept rates unchanged at 1.00%, as expected, through an 8-1 vote, with board member Takata the dissenter who proposed a 25bps rate hike. Little move seen in Japanese assets following the announcement and Governor Ueda press conference. US equity futures are firmer, with Amazon surging pre-market (+12%) after reporting faster AWS growth.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed and way off best levels as energy prices rebound following recent reporting of a land blockade and hit tankers (Brent +0.3%).Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian GDP (May), US University of Michigan Final (Jul). Speakers include BoE's Pill, Fed's Hammack, Logan & Kashkari. Earnings from AbbVie & Chevron. Scope Ratings update on Switzerland.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

SCHEDULE FOR THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 7-29-26.1885  CHILE STEEL SIDED WARSHIPRebecca Grant and Gordon Chang report China is escalating provocations against the Philippines and Japan, including dangerous maneuvers near Second Thomas Shoal and firing missiles from submarines. Grant highlights the US Navy's preparedness to defend allies, noting a "red line" if Filipino sailors are killed. Despite China's permanent presence, the US maintains dominance through carrier strike groups and superior undersea warfare. The lack of operational officers on China's Central Military Commission suggests potential command risks. (1)Rick Fisher and Gordon Chang discuss reports that China is transferring hundreds of advanced QW-12 and FN-16 man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to Iran via Hong Kong intermediaries. Fisher warns this poses a significant threat to US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz. Chang advocates for reimposing sanctions on Hong Kong. The transfer, which China denies, represents a major escalation and highlights China's ongoing role in arming US adversaries like North Korea and Pakistan. (2)Charles Burton and Gordon Chang note Xi Jinping broke tradition by skipping the 50th anniversary of the devastating Tangshan earthquake, sending a surrogate instead. Burton suggests this absence may signal political instability or paranoia regarding his domestic standing. The earthquake historically symbolizes a loss of the "mandate of heaven." Furthermore, vacancies on the Central Military Commission and the mysterious death of former Premier Li Keqiangindicate profound internal disarray and a lack of clear succession. (3)Charles Burton and Gordon Chang discuss how trade tensions and rhetoric from the US have led to increased disdain among Canadians toward their neighbor. Burton discusses a poll showing Canadians view China more favorably than the US due to perceived economic threats from American tariffs. While the integrated North American market remains strong, Canadian provincial governments are reportedly restricting US alcohol sales. There are even suggestions that Canada should adopt "resistance" strategies similar to Ukraine. (4)Evan Ellis reports Keiko Fujimori has been inaugurated as Peru's president, appointing a respected center-right cabinet focused on fiscal discipline and US alignment. However, she faces challenges from endemic insecurity, corruption, and significant Chinese investment. Meanwhile, the influence of Cuba remains a concern across Latin America, with accusations of espionage and interference in democratic processes. Díaz-Canel's regime is under pressure from the Trump administration, potentially facing coercive negotiations or military action. (5)Evan Ellis previews Brazil's upcoming October election, which pits the leftist Lula da Silva against Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the former president. While Lula currently leads in polls, his Workers' Party background and ties to the São Paulo Forum raise concerns about radicalism and increased engagement with China. Ellis warns that a Lula victory could lead Brazil into a recession and a state-centric social policy, potentially settling political scores while lacking necessary financial resources. (6)Evan Ellis surveys shifting political landscapes: Javier Milei is rallying support for the Bolsonaros in Brazil, highlighting a new era of cross-border political interference. In Colombia, President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is signaling a pro-US shift by cutting ties with Cuba and Nicaragua. Conversely, Venezuela remains in a "holding pattern" under Delcy Rodríguez. Despite reports of crumbling oil infrastructure, major investment is unlikely until a legitimate government is established to address the nation's $240 billion debt. (7)Evan Ellis notes President Claudia Sheinbaum has seen success in reducing homicides and cooperating on border security, but deep-seated corruption persists. The USMCA's future is uncertain, with the Trump administration using ongoing negotiations as leverage. Additionally, China is quietly expanding its presence in Mexico's telecom and automotive sectors. Sheinbaum must navigate a delicate balance: pursuing economic diversification and relationships with China without jeopardizing critical access to the US market. (8)Michael Bernstam reports Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have severely pinched Moscow's fuel production, forcing it to import refined products from India. Bernstam argues that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have merged into a singular global energy crisis. With critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea threatened, a quarter of the world's oil supply is endangered. As governmental reserves dwindle, the US has become a primary exporter. (9)Michael Bernstam notes official statistics reveal the Russian economy has entered a state of stagnation, with GDP growth at a mere 0.2% for the first half of 2026. While weapons production remains high, the civilian economy—including agriculture and construction—is in recession. Bernstam notes that "perceived inflation" for Russian consumers is roughly 15%, significantly higher than official reports. Reckless interest rate cuts have further invited inflation, signaling a deepening commercial and fiscal crisis. (10)Sadanand Dhume observes that despite having a vast pool of engineers and data, India lags behind the US and China in developing frontier AI models. Dhume discusses the "winner-take-all" fear versus the belief that AI technology will eventually diffuse globally. While the Indian government is investing in semiconductors, many IT sector jobs in coding and back-office support are threatened by automation. The debate continues over whether India can successfully reap benefits without being a front-runner. (11)Sadanand Dhume examines India's "reservations" system, a rigid quota-based affirmative action program facing intense criticism for undermining university competitiveness. Originally intended to redress historical caste-based wrongs, quotas have expanded to cover roughly 60% of medical school seats. Dhume notes that while merit-based systems in Chinaprovide a brutal but efficient benchmark, Indian political parties fear touching the quota system would be "electoral suicide." This policy has entrenched caste identities. (12)General Blaine Holt analyzes reports of China supplying advanced shoulder-launched missiles (MANPADS) to Iran via Hong Kong and Pakistan, signaling a major geopolitical shift. Holt explains that while these weapons threaten low-flying aircraft, the supply chain is vulnerable to intelligence interdiction. Holt observes that recent Iranian escalations in Iraq and the Gulf suggest a fragmented leadership in disarray rather than a cohesive strategy. The US and Saudi Arabiaare actively striking Iranian-backed militias. (13)Mary Anastasia O'Grady reports that following a narrow election victory, center-right businessman Abelardo de la Espriella faces fierce opposition from outgoing President Gustavo Petro. Petro, a former M19 terrorist, has refused to recognize the results, alleging fraud and foreign interference. De la Espriella plans to take a hard line against illegal armed groups like the ELN and FARC. To build support, he intends to hold his inauguration at a military garrison, signaling a commitment to restoring national security. (14)Bob Zimmerman reports SpaceX's 13th Starship Super Heavy launch was a major success, demonstrating the reliability of Raptor 3 engines and the thermal protection system. Zimmerman highlights the shift toward a "capitalism model," where private companies manage missions for NASA. Meanwhile, a schizophrenic GAO report on NASA's workforce reductions suggests that budget cuts have not significantly impacted major projects, despite agency officials' claims that funding decreases are "disastrous." (15)Bob Zimmerman notes the Deep Space Network facility in Spain narrowly avoided destruction by wildfires, highlighting the fragility of planetary communication nodes. Beyond Earth, astronomers have observed a precipitous drop in star formation within the Andromeda galaxy as it moves toward an eventual collision with the Milky Way. Additionally, NASA's Dragonfly mission to Titan faces potential power shortages from its nuclear sources. Despite these risks, commercial space continues to expand into private stations. (16)Corrections applied: Rick Fisher (transcribed as "Fischer" in segment 2 — matching the spelling from your earlier batch), Delcy Rodríguez, Díaz-Canel, and São Paulo Forum with accents. Also standardized "man-pads" to MANPADS and hyphenated the QW-12/FN-16 designations. Stray double commas from the source cleaned throughout.5

Michael Bernstam reports Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have severely pinched Moscow's fuel production, forcing it to import refined products from India. Bernstam argues that the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have merged into a singular global energy crisis. With critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea threatened, a quarter of the world's oil supply is endangered. As governmental reserves dwindle, the US has become a primary exporter. (9)1931 TOKYO MATSUYA DEPARTMENT STORE

Rick Fisher and Gordon Chang discuss reports that China is transferring hundreds of advanced QW-12 and FN-16 man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) to Iran via Hong Kong intermediaries. Fisher warns this poses a significant threat to US aircraft in the Strait of Hormuz. Chang advocates for reimposing sanctions on Hong Kong. The transfer, which China denies, represents a major escalation and highlights China's ongoing role in arming US adversaries like North Korea and Pakistan. (2)1944 TOKYO STATION

With humanitarian needs surging and resources increasingly scarce, how does the World Food Programme decide where to cut assistance? Our guest today is Carl Skau, acting executive director of the World Food Programme. We begin by discussing how renewed fighting between the United States and Iran—and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a key Red Sea transit corridor—is driving up food prices and worsening food insecurity around the world. Carl Skau also responds to Israeli criticism of a recent food-security report on Gaza, explains the operational challenges facing the WFP in Afghanistan and Sudan, and discusses why, on top of everything else, the organization is bracing for the possible arrival of a powerful El Niño.

//The Wire//2100Z July 30, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES CONDUCTS RETALIATORY STRIKES WITHIN IRAN. CYCLOSPORA OUTBREAK CONTINUES IN UNITED STATES. MIGRATION WAVE HITS SPAIN AFTER SUPREME COURT RULING RESULTS IN BORDER CROSSING BREACH.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: American strikes on Iran continued overnight, with most of the targets being struck in the same coastal regions of Iran that have been targeted since the ceasefire was broken. Iran has claimed to have struck several aircraft on the ground at Muwaffaq al Salti in Jordan, along with other targets around the region which will take some time to verify.On the American side, one new series of targets struck by the United States was reported in the border town of Abadan, which is geographically located right on the Iraqi border, a short distance from Bubiyan Island where American HIMARs launchers have been observed conducting ATACMS strikes within Iran.Spain: An emergency situation has been declared after thousands of migrants swarmed the small enclave of Ceuta on the south side of the Strait of Gibraltar. Several thousand migrants breached the border perimeter that separates the Spanish peninsular city of Ceuta, from mainland Morocco. After it became clear to the crowds that there were very few border guards, the fencing was breached by land, and small boats launched by sea to land on the beaches, circumventing the fencing.Immediately after the migrant waves arrived this morning, the city has been in a state of sheer bedlam. Riots have been reported throughout the peninsula and property owners have reported being swarmed with break ins, as the border itself has completely collapsed.Analyst Comment: The reason for the fray is due to a recent court ruling which has intensified illegal immigration efforts. This week, Spain's Supreme Court re-affirmed that their borders are open, and that migrants who are apprehended trying to cross over to this peninsula cannot be deported. Last month, Spain's amnesty program officially closed, but because it's very hard to prove an entry date for someone who crossed the border illegally, the boats are being launched like never before, which resulted in today's intensification once the fence was breached.-HomeFront-USA: Around the nation the outbreak of cyclospora has continued to remain a concern as the exact point of origin for the parasite remains largely unknown. Over the past few weeks, the infection has continued to spread around the nation, and now a total of 45x states are reporting citizens falling ill. The largest outbreak cluster remains in Michigan and Ohio, and most of the other states affected are located in the midwest, the northeast, and southeastern regions of the nation.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: The war in the Middle East has reached a level of complexity that makes direct strikes and targeting efforts way more impactful than they otherwise would be. A few days ago, the Saudis struck targets in northern Iraq, targeting Iran-aligned militia groups. It was partially this action which resulted in Iran striking back at Saudi Arabia yesterday. The groups that were targeted by the Saudis, were allegedly smaller sub-groups within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which had not formally joined with the Iraqi government. For context, the PMF are an infamous collection of militia units and tribes, which align with Iran along religious lines in addition to sharing the geography along the Iranian border.In recent years, the PMF has been rolled into the Iraqi government, to serve as the official militia/homeguard for the nation. This results in a complex web of loyalties and relationships, as making the PMF a part of the official uniformed Iraqi military service makes them harder to strike due to the diplomatic situation. This is probably why the Saudis attacked when they didn't necessarily need to. They found a way to strike PMF factions that would probably result in a fracturing within the region, but also not really result in a retaliatory attack from the Iraqi government. Or at least, that was the gamble on the part of the Saudis. The fact that the PMF sporadically launch drones at the Saudis helped justify this targeting effort last weekend. However in effect, what this has done, has brought Iran and Iraq closer together...at least in terms of hating the Saudis. The problem is that the Saudis (much like others in the region) have a habit of kicking a hornets nest, then handing that nest to the United States to deal with. When the Saudis hit the PMF in Iraq, the militia groups in Iraq will probably take this as an opportunity to increase attacks on the American base in Erbil (as they have for years), and the Iraqi government might not be so inclined to reign them in...because the Americans are not reigning in the Saudis. In short, things are sliding sideways, and because it's complicated and can't be compressed into a quick soundbite for decision makers to consume, the danger is very likely going unnoticed.Even though it is complicated, this is a comparatively easy example of how escalations can take place not just vertically, but also horizontally. Vertical escalations take the form of increasingly more severe tit-for-tat airstrikes, but horizontal escalations are far less intense, while spreading out around the world. This has resulted in the situation sleepwalking into serious territory, which has largely gone unnoticed because it hasn't been flashy enough for headlines. The Saudis are striking the Iraqis, the Houthis are hitting the Saudis, somebody is striking the Egyptians, the Israelis have slipped back into the shadows, the Iranians are hitting the Jordanians and Americans, and the United States is perplexingly bombing coastal targets and bridges within Iran...which are rather forebodingly only used during the wintertime wet season. These horizontal escalations have been a mainstay of this conflict since the beginning, but right now these more indirect escalations are taking center stage as the United States and Iran slug it out with missiles, drones, and bombs, and the United States is unable to make progress for the time being.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob Moriarty is an author, Founder of 321 Gold, and a former Marine Fighter Pilot. Moriarty outlines a deeply concerning global landscape, arguing that recent escalations—including Ukraine's attack on Iranian vessels and Saudi Arabia's strike on the Houthis—have rapidly transformed regional conflicts into what could become World War III. He contends that Israel is the primary driver of the war against Iran, with the United States under Donald Trump co-opting the conflict, potentially under duress from compromising information. Despite the severe supply disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi refineries, oil prices have paradoxically fallen. Moriarty attributes this to widespread manipulation by governments draining strategic petroleum reserves and intervening in paper markets to suppress costs, a tactic he warns is unsustainable and risks permanently damaging storage infrastructure. He believes all the headwinds that previously kept prices low have become tailwinds, setting the stage for a sudden, explosive price spike that could devastate the global economy. On precious metals, Moriarty notes gold's resilience, referencing a forecast that it could trade between $4,000 and $6,000 this year due to currency debasement, though he emphasizes that manipulation exists across all markets. He advocates holding physical metals as insurance against chaos and sees extraordinary value in junior mining stocks, which he believes are historically undervalued relative to commodity prices. While acknowledging the high-risk nature of junior investments, he stresses that outsized gains from a few winners can offset losses. Timestamps: 00:00:00 – Introduction 00:01:29 – War Escalation and WW3 Risks 00:04:40 – Oil Price Manipulation Explained 00:10:00 – Peace Talks and Hidden Agendas 00:14:32 – Infrastructure Strikes Analysis 00:19:22 – Oil Market Headwinds to Tailwinds 00:24:00 – SPR Depletion and Risks 00:27:00 – Crack Spreads and True Prices 00:32:08 – Perfect Storm in Energy Markets 00:35:36 – Imminent Petroleum Shortages 00:38:21 – Opportunities for Oil Producers 00:42:13 – Gold Prices and Investing 00:47:53 – Precious Metals Miners Outlook 00:54:32 – Wrap Up Guest Links: Website: http://www.321gold.com Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3 Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.

Tuesday's primary for Michigan's open Senate seat is serving as a proxy battle over the Democratic Party's future, underscoring racial and generational divisions over everything from healthcare to immigration to aid for Israel. How it all plays out could shape the direction of the party, including the 2028 presidential race. Also: today's stories, including how the collapse of a possible compromise to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could expand the conflict in the Middle East; how Japan's first female prime minister is navigating a challenging first year in office; and how some states are suing the Trump administration for redirecting wind power funding towards fossil fuels. Join the Monitor's Linda Feldmann for today's news.

If you think the war is basically over because someone said Iran was “decimated,” slow down and do the math. We bring back author and longtime war and strategy teacher Michael Vlahos to dissect the claims coming out of Washington, including a clip of the Secretary of War projecting confidence about Iranian losses and U.S. stockpiles. Then we translate the language of victory into capabilities, inventories, and what actually changes on the battlefield. We dig into the shock factor that keeps showing up in this conflict: Iran's growing missile accuracy. Michael explains why guidance systems and satellite navigation matter, how China's BeiDou GPS alternative can tighten missile impact to a few meters, and why that precision turns U.S. bases and high-value assets into far riskier bets. From there we tackle the uncomfortable question everyone avoids: how much help might Russia and China provide, from components and air defense support to quieter forms of intelligence and targeting assistance. The second half gets brutally practical about sustainability. We talk munitions stockpiles, interceptor burn rates, and the limits of “we'll just build more,” plus why cheap guided bombs are not a cure if air defenses block access and key sites are deeply buried. We also challenge the assumption that the U.S. Navy can simply blockade its way to leverage, laying out fleet size realities, carrier deployment strain, shipyard bottlenecks, and the incentives inside the military industrial complex. The stakes are not just military; we connect the Strait of Hormuz to oil prices, diesel supply, fertilizer, and potential food shocks. Subscribe, share this with a friend who follows geopolitics, and leave a review with the single biggest insight you took from the conversation.

On today's show, guest host Zoltán Grossman is in conversation with Stephen Zunes about the on-again, off-again US war with Iran. They discuss the status of the Strait of Hormuz, the US's nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, and the shifting public opinion in the US about the war. Despite the asymmetrical power of the US's aerial arsenal, Zunes says that Iranian drones have been very effective at creating tactical advantages in the war. Though there have been many attempts at a ceasefire deal, Zunes argues that any version would have to include some concessions to Iran's advantage. But he says that Trump would rather perpetuate the war than negotiate. They discuss the many rippling effects of the war including a decline in the world petroleum market, more insecurity for US allies in the Middle East, and the creation of nuclear apartheid as the US comes to a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. These issues, in addition to human rights abuses, are causing massive shifts in public opinion about the war with Iran and Palestine with young people especially.  Zunes connects the war with Iran to other global conflicts, from Morocco's occupation of Western Sahara to Palestine. He says that the Palestine solidarity movement should include Western Sahara and that The Odyssey film has created a rare opportunity to bring attention to the occupation.  Stephen Zunes is a professor of Politics and Director of Middle Eastern Studies at the University of San Francisco. He writes for The Progressive magazine, Truthout, Common Dreams, and other publications. His most recent book is Western Sahara: War, Nationalism, and Conflict Irresolution. Featured image of a satellite image of the Strait of Hormuz via Flickr (CC BY 2.0).  Did you enjoy this story? Your funding makes great, local journalism like this possible. Donate hereThe post The Forever War with Iran Inflames other Regional Conflicts appeared first on WORT-FM 89.9.

Kevin covers and discusses the following stories: Dr. Anthony appeared before the Senate Homeland Security Committee investigating the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, based on recent revelations; the Federal Reserve announced their decision on interest rates; Omdia Automotive released June Medium-Duty trucks; Ryder released 2nd Quarter earnings, including truck and tractor rental demand and used vehicle prices; oil reacts to events in the war with Iran, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, threats from Yemen's Houthis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea and U.S. crude oil inventories; Kevin has he details, digs into the data, puts the information into historical perspective, offers his insights and some opinions.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As the US-Israel-Iran war enters its sixth month, the conflict has taken a sharp turn. After a brief lull in the fighting, Iran launched a surprise ballistic missile attack on US forces on July 28, and the US and Saudi Arabia struck back at Iran-backed militias in Iraq, marking Riyadh's entry into the war. MEI Senior Fellow Alex Vatanka joins host Alistair Taylor to discuss the escalation, what may come next, and the state of talks over sharing the Strait of Hormuz. Recorded on July 29, 2026.

The US can't leave Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz, but it can't wrestle control away without committing ground troops—but it also can't keep going on like this. So where does that leave everyone?Guest: Josh Keating, senior correspondent covering foreign affairs at Vox. Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jonathan Schanzer discusses new UK–US talks focused on a maritime coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has an opportunity to reset the relationship with Donald Trump. The Iranian-backed Houthi threat remains a top concern for global oil analysts and regional powers like Egypt. Meanwhile, the US is signaling that Lebanon is "too big to fail" to counter Hezbollah's regional influence. (8)1920

SCHEDULE THE MAKING OF THE JOHN BATCHELOR SHOW, 7-28-26.1900 IDAHOLiz Peek reports the US economy remains robust, driven by strong consumer spending in rural areas like Connecticutand Lancaster County. Peek highlights rising small business and consumer confidence despite increasing gasoline prices. Attention shifts to new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, who may end "dot plot" forecasting. Warsh aims to be more "taciturn," forcing markets to rely on incoming data rather than Fed projections. (1)Liz Peek examines the Michigan Democratic Senate primary as a national test for the party's ideological direction. Moderate Haley Stevens faces Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a candidate favored by the Democratic Socialists of America. Peek notes the "shocker" UAW endorsement of El-Sayed, highlighting a shift toward "woke" politics among union members in higher education. This race evaluates if a far-left candidate can win a statewide swing-state contest. (2)Thaddeus McCotter and Judy Dempsey discuss Ukraine's strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea, which complicates global energy security for Europe. This inland sea is a vital source of non-Russian energy. Dempsey reports that Germany is carefully observing the implications of this new front. The strike underscores the deep military connection between Russia and Iran regarding equipment exchanges. Meanwhile, recent polls show seven out of ten Americans oppose the Iran war. (3)Thaddeus McCotter and Judy Dempsey turn to a deadly ramming attack at a Berlin parade that has put Chancellor Friedrich Merz on the defensive regarding his security credentials. The populist AfD party is exploiting the tragedy to criticize "uncontrolled immigration" ahead of crucial state elections. While Merz responded with calls for law and order, the incident underscores the difficulty police face in monitoring numerous terrorist suspects. The AfD utilizes these crises to offer simple solutions. (4)Mary Kissel notes diplomatic efforts with Iran currently involve "shuttling messages" through intermediaries like Omanand Qatar. Kissel argues that the Islamic Republic is a revolutionary regime with no interest in genuine strategic peace. The administration's lack of a cohesive strategy has led to declining public support for military action. Meanwhile, the Houthi threat in the Red Sea remains a dangerous Iranian-backed tool for disrupting international shipping. (5)Mary Kissel observes President Zelenskyy is receiving a warmer reception in Washington due to Ukraine's increasing military leverage. Innovative long-range drone strikes on Russian energy nodes have demonstrated Ukraine's utility to USstrategic interests. Unlike the situation with Iran, the US maintains active diplomatic channels in Moscow to discuss potential conflict resolutions. Kissel notes that influential voices on the right are beginning to shift their views on Ukraine. (6)Jonathan Schanzer reports the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East are merging as Russia, Iran, and Chinacoordinate their efforts. Schanzer notes that Ukraine's Caspian Sea strike has clarified this global partnership. The US is currently attempting to "keep a lid" on Israel to prevent a regional escalation. However, the US military faces a depletion of missile interceptors, making it difficult to sustain a long, high-intensity conflict. (7)Jonathan Schanzer discusses new UK–US talks focused on a maritime coalition to secure the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Prime Minister Andy Burnham has an opportunity to reset the relationship with Donald Trump. The Iranian-backed Houthi threat remains a top concern for global oil analysts and regional powers like Egypt. Meanwhile, the US is signaling that Lebanon is "too big to fail" to counter Hezbollah's regional influence. (8)Gregory Copley reports the Trump administration has imposed tariffs on Australia, alleging "forced labor" practices—a claim Copley describes as spurious. This move antagonizes a loyal ally that has fought alongside the US for over a century. Consequently, Australia and Canada are beginning to lessen their strategic dependence on the US. Copley warns that such unilateral protectionism could weaken the long-term structure of the Western alliance. (9)Gregory Copley describes Cuba's total implosion as its infrastructure collapses and major blackouts occur. Copley describes a strategic failure in the Caribbean, where China has built significant influence over the last 20 years. The USmust decide whether to facilitate a rapid collapse or a managed transition of the regime. While the Cuban people suffer, the wealthy expatriate community remains ready to fund reconstruction. (10)Gregory Copley reports Xi Jinping faces significant internal opposition from Communist Party elders at the Beidaiheretreat. Despite his titles, Xi's operational power is waning as the Chinese economy evaporates and social unrest grows. A recent ballistic missile launch served as a show of strength before a state visit to the US. Copley notes that youth unemployment is high, and the PLA may eventually act independently. (11)Gregory Copley turns to the UK, where following the rise of Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the country faces political uncertainty as Labour struggles with a lack of growth. Copley highlights King Charles III's vital role as a unifying force, focusing on British national identity and values. While the Burnham government is viewed as sclerotic and ideological, the King remains an egalitarian figure. His efforts to preserve heritage, like Dumfries House, bolster his standing. (12)Joseph Sternberg criticizes Prime Minister Andy Burnham's economic policy as ineffective against the cost-of-living crisis. Sternberg argues that the UK is trapped by net-zero regulations that prevent the use of vast North Sea oil and gas reserves. Burnham finds it politically difficult to cut taxes or reverse climate policies despite potential economic benefits. This paralysis makes his government a target for future replacement. (13)Joseph Sternberg notes Chairman Kevin Warsh is moving the Federal Reserve toward a "taciturn" style, ending the practice of "forward guidance." This reform aims to prevent the Fed from becoming locked into policies that may become inappropriate as data shifts. Sternberg suggests that saying less may protect the Fed from political conflict with the White House over tariffs. Markets must now interpret raw data rather than Fed signals. (14)Thaddeus McCotter describes the Michigan Democratic Senate primary as a "civil war" between establishment candidate Haley Stevens and progressive Dr. Abdul El-Sayed. The candidates are sharply divided over AIPAC funding and support for Israel. Stevens is endorsed by high-profile figures like Gretchen Whitmer and Barack Obama. The result will indicate if the Democratic Socialists of America can succeed in a statewide race in a swing state. (15)Thaddeus McCotter notes Dr. Abdul El-Sayed denies being a socialist, claiming he merely wants to regulate "capitalism run amok." However, his platform includes radical proposals such as abolishing ICE. Haley Stevens frames him as a "celebrity candidate" and questions his appeal to women voters. McCotter notes that while the DSA lacks a ground model, identity politics may drive a high turnout among Michigan's large Muslim population. (16)Corrections applied throughout as directed: Thaddeus McCotter and Liz Peek.

The US can't leave Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz, but it can't wrestle control away without committing ground troops—but it also can't keep going on like this. So where does that leave everyone?Guest: Josh Keating, senior correspondent covering foreign affairs at Vox. Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this Wednesday Q&A episode of The Wright Report, Bryan breaks down Iran's surprise missile attack on US forces in Jordan, shattering the fragile ceasefire just days after it took hold. Bryan answers listener questions on why the IRGC believes it holds the upper hand in this war, the risky billions being poured into new Middle East pipelines and ports, and how new US-Mexico desalination projects could help solve the West's water crisis. He also tackles questions on the newly uncovered Fauci diaries and a listener's concerns about a defense bill deepening US-Israel military cooperation. Plus, Bryan covers Bernie Sanders' stunning admission that he's not actually a Democrat, new American drone factories built with Ukrainian expertise, rogue Russian mercenaries operating in Central Africa, and the fallout from a Substack pricing mixup that's testing his relationship with loyal subscribers. "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32   Keywords: Wright Report, Bryan Dean Wright, Iran attack, Jordan, IRGC, Strait of Hormuz, ceasefire, Fauci diary, Israel defense bill, Bernie Sanders, DNC, drone factory, Ukraine, Africa Corps, desalination, water crisis

How much runway does the world's energy market still have? Our Head of Commodity Research Martijn Rats joins our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets to explain what's causing pressure beyond renewed tensions in the Middle East.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley.Martijn Rats: And I'm Martijn Rats, Head of Commodity Research at Morgan Stanley.Andrew Sheets: Today – talking about the recent volatility and the direction ahead for oil.It's Wednesday, July 29th at 2pm in London.Martijn, it's great to talk to you again. We haven't talked for a little while on this program. But oil is once again back in the headlines and it's moving around.So maybe to just jump right into things, as you look at the lay of the land in global energy markets at the moment, what's been happening? What are you telling clients?Martijn Rats: Okay. Well, we've had a large amount of volatility, over the last couple of weeks. If you roll the clock back, sort of, to the beginning of June. In the beginning of June, it started to become clear that already some more oil was leaking out of the Strait of Hormuz than perhaps, many of us anticipated at the time.But that data has been confirmed since then. And then, of course, in the middle of June, we got the memorandum of understanding. And after that, roughly 100-150 million barrels a day or so that was behind the Strait of Hormuz got cleared. And that…Andrew Sheets: These were tankers that were stuck there during the conflict, all came out.Martijn Rats: Absolutely. Laden tankers that were there; had just basically turned into floating storage for a good couple of months. They all cleared out, and that actually created a bit of a glut, in the sense that all of a sudden, the refiners of this world had a lot of crude to absorb. And we saw many indications of physical looseness in the market, physical differentials, calendar spreads.All sorts of indicators pointed that physically there was a lot of oil, temporarily to be absorbed. And the spot price of Brent fell to $70. And that looked to be the new direction of travel. In principle, the world is not short of oil if you take the geopolitics out of it.So, for a while it, it looked bearish. But then a new set of disruptions came, and the military conflict restarted, and we've had 13 days of overnight bombing. And with that also the flow through the Strait of Hormuz diminished again. And we are back in the last, sort of, week, 10 days to very, very low levels. The same levels we had in March.The flow through the strait is not exactly zero. But it's sort of 2-3 million barrels a day, sort of, down 80 percent to 90 percent of what it was before the conflict. And with that, prices have rallied. But on top of that, last week it looked like the military activity could really scale up. And for a couple of days, the markets priced that in.But then we have other choke points to take into account now. Not only Hormuz, but the Bab el-Mandeb, the CPC terminal, the issues in global refining. Altogether, it's been a tremendously volatile period. So, we're on the whole leaning towards the constructive side because there are so many disruptions in the system. But it's a very hard one to call at the moment.Andrew Sheets: So Martijn, let's talk about those other disruptions besides just the Strait of Hormuz. Because yeah, it's not just the Strait of Hormuz anymore. We have issues in the Red Sea. You have ongoing issues with Russian energy infrastructure that's being attacked by Ukraine. Just what are these other factors that are out there? And how much do they matter relative to, you know, how many ships are passing through the Strait of Hormuz?Martijn Rats: Yeah. They matter a lot, and you can see that expressed in the price of refined product more than the price of crude. If you look at the main global benchmark for the price of diesel, which is arguably the ICE gas-oil contract, which are diesel barges delivered in Rotterdam or in the wider ARA area, it's trading at about $1,200 a ton, which is sort of $150-$160 per barrel.That's where you see the tightness. And so out of the total end user price, the refiners are capturing more at the moment than the crude suppliers. But what end users pay is not $85 per barrel for Brent crude oil, it's $1,200 a ton for diesel. And that is a very high price. Now, that is a result effectively of four major issues that the oil market has to deal with.One of them is Hormuz, as just discussed. But then we come to these other three. And these other three are the Bab el-Mandeb, which is the strait on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula that provides entry and exit to the Red Sea. That strait has gained in importance because Saudi Arabia has been redirecting about 4 million barrels a day of crude oil supply that was previously exported via Hormuz. Now through the East-West Pipeline to a terminal near a city called Yanbu, from where it is loaded and mostly sails down south through the Bab el-Mandab to refineries in Asia.The Bab el-Mandab is a strait that is effectively controlled by the Houthis, which is an Iran-aligned group that controls much of Yemen. And already in [20]24, earlier in [20]25, they've been very effective, controlling tanker traffic through that strait. And in the last sort of week or so, they have said that they will no longer allow Saudi tankers to sail out. And also, that group has executed drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure near the Jazan refinery, near the Yanbu terminal, and overnight also the Abqaiq facility, which is a large oil processing plant.So, this whole Red Sea situation puts at risk something like an incremental 3.5 million barrels a day of crude.Then we've had to deal with issues at the CPC terminal, which is again, also a very large oil export terminal. About 1.5-2 million barrels a day of crude is exported from CPC, which is a terminal near the Russian city of Novorossiysk.Ukraine has been executing drone attacks on tankers that have been trying to load from the CPC terminal. Much of last week, the CPC terminal was out. Over the last 24 hours, a few tankers have loaded again, but it's very unreliable. It's on again, off again. It's a very disrupted flow. In and of itself, a single terminal loading 1.5-2 million barrels a day is very, very large. So, we care.And then the third issue that the oil market has been dealing with, and this also comes back to this issue about these refined product prices, is very severe tightness in the global refining system. That is an issue of some refineries can't export because they're behind the Strait of Hormuz again.So, you can say, "Well, isn't that; that's sort of the same problem?" But nevertheless, it expresses it somewhere else. It's partly a problem of, sort of, the Chinese refinery system running very low. But it's recently mostly been driven by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. And by now, something like 60 percent of the Russian refining system is out.And with that, exports of refined products have declined very significantly. There's a gasoline export ban. There's a diesel export ban from Russia. Russia used to be a very large diesel exporter. That is now down to practically zero. And with that, refined product markets have rallied severely on top of the price of crude.Andrew Sheets: And I think that's interesting [be]cause when we think about the economic impact of oil, while, you know, the price of oil per barrel is often the most kind of visible marker that we have – it's often the refined product that we actually use. You know, a truck is running on diesel. It's not running on crude oil.And, you know, that cost of diesel, of jet fuel, of gasoline, you know, that is the thing that can often really affect business margins. And the ability to operate and move product around. So, I mean, just give a sense like how much have those diesel prices gone up? And how much further could they rise if you're operating, you know, a trucking company in Europe?Martijn Rats: Yeah. Look, when supply is inherently scarce, we often ask the question – what is the demand destruction price, right? If you can't supply the stuff quick enough, the physical oil market, be it crude or refined product, must balance.There are a finite number of molecules in the system, and we can store them for a bit. We can take them out of storage. But when you take storage into account, molecules can't disappear out of nowhere. And they can't create it out of nowhere either. So, the system must balance. And if you can't supply it quick enough, the only way to balance sometimes is through demand destruction.And then we ask the question, what is the price that effectively causes that to happen? And if you look historically, that is often expressed in crude, something like $140-$150 a barrel. We've seen that before. But those were occasions where refining was not an issue. And then crude needs to do the heavy lifting to drive prices higher.What we're having at the moment is that refined products need to do it. And so, from experience earlier in the year, back in 2022, some other occasions, the price that destroys diesel demand is probably in the order of $1,400 a ton. In the diesel market, we use tons rather than barrels for historical reasons. Just to make it easy.But it's about $1,400 a ton, which is about sort of, you know, like $180-$190 per barrel. That really stops diesel demand in its track. At the moment, we're $1,230-$1,240, that sort of level. And so, we are getting close. There is probably a little bit more to go, like another 5 percent, 10 percent, that sort of thing, before you really hit some exceptionally high levels.But the diesel price, I would argue, is doing exactly that. It's searching for this demand destruction price. It's just if you then take that sort of $160 diesel that we have at the moment, how much do the refiners get versus how much do the crude producers get?At the moment, the refiners are getting $65- $70 out of that, leaving comparatively little for the crude supplier. But the refined product price is the channel by which the economy is impacted and ultimately also by which demand is eroded.Andrew Sheets: When we're talking about demand destruction, we're talking about at what price does a trucking company not operate, does not drive as much, you know, does not, you know... We're talking about less activity. And inherently that is, I think a risk to growth. But especially risk to growth in Europe where the starting point for growth is already pretty weak.Martijn Rats: Yes. So, we are watching as much, how the Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refiners are playing out as we are watching, sort of, the Strait of Hormuz.Andrew Sheets: Martijn, the last thing I wanted to talk to you about is, you know, we've been talking about the Iran conflict since late February. And, you know, we're sitting here in late July. And it's clear that, you know, there was a small normalization in flows as you talked about. But we're back to a place where those flows are nowhere near normal.And I think the question on everybody's mind is how much longer can this go on before there's a much larger shock to energy prices?Now, again, you've mentioned we're already seeing some of that shock to diesel, but, you know, a much bigger disruption. What's your current thinking on how much runway the energy system still has?Martijn Rats: Yeah. It's an excellent question, and it's turned out to be fiendishly hard to answer. My gut feel based on how the data is behaving, based on what we know from history: If this lasts another, sort of, month or two, three, then it's hard to argue that by then the buffers in the system will not have been completely exhausted.The reason why I think oil analysts have lost a degree of confidence in forecasting this accurately is that there's a lot of unexplained oil that does require some explanation. If you look at the cumulative amount of supply loss from the Middle East since the start of this conflict, easily over 1.5 billion barrels. 1.5 billion barrels in 150 days is an enormous amount.And yet, the inventory draws that we can find in observable data, they are at best a third of that, maybe 0.5 billion barrels. And so, there's another billion barrels where you say, "Yeah, we had that last year, but we don't have this this year.”How did we solve that billion-barrel problem? And you can say, "Well, we were a bit oversupplied going into it," and a few other things. But you, sort of, have to conclude, and I think this is also, you know, talking to clients and investors, other market participants. I think this is sort of collectively we're discovering this is that this system of, like, unobservable inventories has to be way bigger.That is either inventories like in the supply chain, inventories at customers end, or in countries where we generally just have very little data anyway, like in China. And so, the system has been behaving as if already in [20]24 and [20]25 actually, we were putting a lot of oil into these, in storages that are hard to observe – because in that period we had the opposite problem.We were forecasting large inventory builds, and we couldn't find them all. And now we're forecasting large draws, and we haven't been able to find them all. And so, the system has been behaving as this; the unobservable part of the inventories are way larger.And… But at some point, they also run out. But because they're hard to observe, we don't know when. And I would guess if we're getting towards the end of the summer by August-September, and we're still in this situation? Yeah, then we're going into the winter. Like, you know, German households objectively have little storage of heating oil.Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm.Martijn Rats: And they need to be rebuilt. And there are a few examples where we do know what customers are doing with their inventories, and they point to a picture where, yeah, by the end of the summer, like, we're running on fumes. And so, look, this – we've been able to patch this up. But it can't go on forever.Andrew Sheets: Well, Martijn, always a pleasure to, to catch up with you and talk energy markets.Martijn Rats: Nice to talk to you.Andrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us.And please share with a friend or colleague today.

Lindsey Graham's funeral, AIPAC Uglifies Michigan, Oil Companies' Record Profits In this episode: • Gretchen Whitmer takes Blue Cross cash — and buries Medicare for All • One GOP senator holds Todd Blanche's AG confirmation hostage • Netanyahu talked Trump into an Iran bombing that's already collapsing • The Strait of Hormuz, OPEC, and why "drill baby drill" never meant cheap gas for YOU • Big Oil's best quarter in years — paid for with YOUR money and someone else's blood • Operation Southern Spear: more cocaine flowing in, executions without trial • Halliburton, Carlisle Group, West Exec — the men who profit every time America goes to war • "No money, no war" — Congress has the power. It refuses to use it. Key figures covered: Gretchen Whitmer, Todd Blanche, John Cornyn, Benjamin Netanyahu, Dick Cheney, David Rubenstein, Anthony Blinken, Haley Stevens, Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi

The Iran Conflict headlines dominate the news, but the media rarely explains the bigger global war taking shape behind the scenes. Discover how Iran, China, Russia, and information warfare fit into a broader geopolitical strategy that could reshape America's future. Retired U.S. Army Special Forces Green Beret Matt Tardio, host of the Speak the Truth Podcast, joins The P.A.S. Report to break down the Iran conflict, America's military objectives, and the growing alliance between America's adversaries. From the tactical realities of the Strait of Hormuz to the rise of information warfare and cognitive warfare, this conversation explores the strategic challenges that rarely receive serious media attention. Americans cannot understand today's conflicts without understanding the broader geopolitical web connecting Iran, China, Russia, and the battle for global influence. What You'll Learn In This Episode: Iran, China & Russia: Why the Iran conflict extends far beyond the Middle East and directly impacts the global balance of power. Winning Modern Wars: Whether America can achieve strategic victory when political leaders limit military objectives. Information Warfare: How foreign adversaries use disinformation, social media, and cognitive warfare to influence public opinion and weaken national security. Military Readiness: Why understanding America's adversaries remains essential to restoring deterrence and preparing for future conflicts. The Strait of Hormuz: Why this narrow waterway remains one of the world's most important strategic flashpoints. Topics Covered: Iran conflict, Iran war, Matt Tardio, Special Forces, Green Beret, Speak the Truth Podcast, Strait of Hormuz, information warfare, cognitive warfare, China, Russia, national security, geopolitics, military strategy, foreign policy

The US can't leave Iran in charge of the Strait of Hormuz, but it can't wrestle control away without committing ground troops—but it also can't keep going on like this. So where does that leave everyone?Guest: Josh Keating, senior correspondent covering foreign affairs at Vox. Want more What Next? Subscribe to Slate Plus to access ad-free listening to the whole What Next family and across all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts by clicking “Try Free” at the top of our show page. Sign up now at slate.com/whatnextplus to get access wherever you listen.Podcast production by Rob Gunther, Evan Campbell, Madeline Thames-Ducharme and Patrick Fort.Paige Osburn is the senior supervising producer of What Next and What Next TBD. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are effectively shut, Saudi refineries are burning after a wave of strikes, and Iran is flatly denying Trump's claims of a deal even as U.S. munitions run dangerously low. The brothers dig into Trump's bizarre AI meme spree, his Michigan rally where he was heckled over data centers and Epstein and told the crowd "I'm better for you than your parents," and new polling showing only 13% of Americans feel better off under his economic policies. Plus: Katie Phang's Epstein-files lawsuit forces a real court reckoning. Ben, Brett, and Jordy break it all down. Pre-order the new book from MeidasTouch, WTF America?!: The Way Out of This Hell and Back to Democracy, today: https://bit.ly/wtfamericayoutube Deals from our sponsors!  Wildgrain: Get $30 off your first box and free Croissants for life when you visit https://Wildgrain.com/MEIDAS Willie's Remedy: Order now at https://drinkwillies.com and use code MEIDAS for 20% off of your first order + free shipping on orders over $95 HIMS: Visit https://hims.com/meidas to get simple, online access to personalized, affordable care for ED, Hair Loss, Weight Loss, and more. HexClad: Find your forever cookware @hexclad and get 10% off at https://hexclad.com/MEIDAS! #hexcladpartner Subscribe to Meidas+ at https://meidasplus.com Get Meidas Merch: https://store.meidastouch.com Remember to subscribe to ALL the MeidasTouch Network Podcasts: MeidasTouch: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/meidastouch-podcast Legal AF: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/legal-af MissTrial: https://meidasnews.com/tag/miss-trial The PoliticsGirl Podcast: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-politicsgirl-podcast The Ken Harbaugh Show: https://meidasnews.com/tag/the-ken-harbaugh-show The Weekend Show: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/the-weekend-show Burn the Boats: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/burn-the-boats Majority 54: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/majority-54 On Democracy with FP Wellman: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/on-democracy-with-fpwellman Uncovered: https://www.meidastouch.com/tag/maga-uncovered Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In this episode of Stephanie Miller's Happy Hour Podcast, buckle up for a hilarious and insightful dive into the political circus that never seems to end. Stephanie takes on the cringe-worthy moments from the recent White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Donald Trump attempted to bomb the audience with his jokes instead of the Strait of Hormuz. Joined by guests Charlie Pierce and Dean Obeidallah, they dissect the absurdity of Mitch McConnell's mysterious absence and the bizarre cover-up surrounding his health. With sharp humor, they tackle everything from Trump's latest antics to the outrageousness of the media's treatment of him. This episode is packed with laughs, sharp critiques, and a healthy dose of political reality that reminds us why we need to keep our sense of humor in these chaotic times.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.