Podcasts about Persian Gulf

  Join host Justin Forman for a conversation with Christian Pinkston, CEO of the PR and marketing firm Pinkston, that starts with a simple question about marketing in the age of AI and ends somewhere far deeper: a near-drowning in the Persian Gulf, a camel accident in the Egyptian desert three days later, and a voice from God that Christian says he'll never forget. For decades, Christian built a life and a career on convincing the people around him that he was impressive, successful, and worth something — while hiding the shame underneath it. It took two brushes with death in the same week, thousands of miles from home, for that image to finally collapse. What followed was confession, grace that wasn't cheap, and a slow rebuilding of an identity rooted in something that could never be taken away. Along the way, Christian and Justin dig into why AI has made authenticity both harder to fake and more valuable than ever, why story is the foundation of every real relationship (in business and otherwise), and why the same principle that transformed Christian's life — approaching God empty-handed — is also, it turns out, good business. Key Topics: •      Why story is proof: how AI is disrupting marketing and making authenticity both harder to fake and more valuable •      The 45-year identity built on performance — and the soundtrack of shame that shaped it •      Two brushes with death in three days: a riptide in Dubai and a camel accident in Cairo •      Confession, grace, and the difference between “cheap grace” and the real thing •      Why he now pours into young men, teaching an identity rooted in Christ instead of performance Notable Quotes: "I realized like I had been pretending for decades to be someone I wasn't, to impress people in my life so they think that I was worth something." — Christian Pinkston "The hero of that story is you. But we're not the hero of our story. There can only be one hero." — Christian Pinkston "We'll tell the success story. We'll tell those stories. But these are the stories that we need to be telling more of. Telling the stories of brokenness." — Justin Forman

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran is once again threatening the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, raising new concerns about gas prices, diesel costs, and the risk of global supply shortages.Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why the situation in the Middle East remains so difficult to resolve, how refinery shutdowns in Russia, China, and the Persian Gulf are tightening supplies of gasoline and diesel, and why the U.S. may have limited options short of a major escalation. They also discuss the quiet earnings week ahead, why Alphabet's AI spending and delayed Gemini rollout matter for investors, how Waymo could become a bigger part of Google's future, whether retail investors are really moving beyond the Magnificent Seven, and why the World Cup delivered a major boost for Boston bars and local economies.

The war on Iran may be over, but its consequences are only beginning to reshape the Persian Gulf. For decades, Gulf monarchies have balanced security partnerships with the United States, pragmatic engagement with Iran, and ambitious plans to transform themselves into global economic hubs. The conflict has put that strategy to its biggest test yet. In this episode of Global Faultlines, we examine how the war has changed the Gulf security order. From the GCC's historical ties with Iran and the impact of the conflict on Gulf states to the future of the U.S. security architecture and the region's evolving strategic partnerships, we explore what comes next for one of the world's most consequential geopolitical theatres. Has the war fundamentally altered the Gulf's approach to Iran? Is the U.S.-led security architecture entering a new phase? And what does the post-war security order in the Persian Gulf look like? Expert: Stanly Johny, International Affairs Editor, The Hindu  Research, Editing and Production: Sharmada Venkatasubramanian  Recorded by: Shivaraj S Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Live July 17, 2026 | Yaron Brook Show(Season 12, Episode 126)Election Speech; ICE; Insider Trading; AI; Iran; Ukraine; Britain; Achievement | Yaron Brook ShowTrump's Contradictions, AI's Arms Race & Iran's Future: The World's Fault Lines Are CollidingIs America making rational decisions—or stumbling from one political contradiction to the next?In this wide-ranging live episode, Yaron Brook dissects President Trump's latest election speech, examines the growing tensions between political rhetoric and economic reality, and explores why America's biggest challenges—from immigration enforcement to AI competition with China to the conflict with Iran—require something today's politicians seem unwilling to embrace: rational thinking.Yaron also analyzes insider trading concerns surrounding Truth Social, the escalating AI race between the U.S. and China, the enormous infrastructure challenge behind artificial intelligence, developments in Ukraine and Britain, breakthroughs in biotechnology and space exploration, and why achievement—not politics—is ultimately what moves civilization forward.The show concludes with an engaging audience Q&A covering Iran, fascism, Ayn Rand's cultural influence, retirement, the 2028 election, and America's strategy toward the Islamic Republic.Watch Now: https://youtube.com/live/fwvuZFhPYDwTopics Covered00:00 Introduction & upcoming schedule00:36 What today's show covers01:57 Trump's election speech & contradictions on China07:34 Irrationality inside the Trump administration11:10 Non-citizen voting claims & voter fraud narratives14:57 DHS & ICE: funding, training and enforcement challenges21:20 Truth Social, insider trading & privileged market access29:14 The AI race: America vs. China38:54 Are today's AI companies worth the hype?41:32 Why data centers may become AI's biggest bottleneck46:12 Iran, the Persian Gulf & American strategy50:53 Shipping, trade & the economic consequences of war with Iran57:52 Political obstacles to U.S. military action1:01:14 Ukraine's political turmoil1:07:32 Britain's new Prime Minister: Andy Burnham1:11:06 Bioprinting organs in space1:14:57 Nuclear reactor pilot progress1:16:14 SpaceX Falcon 9 milestone1:19:07 Upcoming Ayn Rand Institute conferenceLive Audience Questions1:24:38 What would you say to Americans who support Iran?1:26:54 Has every president since Calvin Coolidge shown fascist tendencies?1:27:47 Is Ayn Rand making a meaningful impact on today's culture?1:29:21 Would retirement ever satisfy you?1:31:40 Which Democrats would you support before Marco Rubio in 2028?1:33:28 If Trump opens the Strait, will he pursue regime change in Iran?If you enjoy thoughtful analysis of politics, economics, technology, foreign policy, philosophy, and capitalism, subscribe and join us live every week.#Trump #ArtificialIntelligence #Iran #China #IndustrialRevolution #Iran #Immigration #Technology#Ukraine #Politics #AynRand #Economics #Objectivism #Capitalism Subscribe for daily analysis on economics, politics, philosophy, technology, investing, and current events.The Yaron Brook Show is Sponsored by[The Ayn Rand Institute](https://www.aynrand.org/starthere)[Energy Talking Points, featuring AlexAI, by Alex Epstein](https://alexepstein.substack.com/)[Express VPN](https://www.expressvpn.com/yaron)[Hendershott Wealth Management](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4lfC...) &(https://hendershottwealth.com/ybs/)[Michael Williams & The Defenders of Capitalism Project](https://www.DefendersOfCapitalism.com)[Support the Show]( / yaronbrookshow )[Sponsor the Show](askyaron@yaronbrookshow.com/)[One-time donation](https://bit.ly/2RZOyJJ)Join the [Yaron Brook Show YouTube channel]( / @yaronbrook )Like what you hear? Like, share, and subscribe to stay updated on new videos and help promote the [Yaron Brook Show](https://bit.ly/3ztPxTx)Continue the discussion by following Yaron on [Twitter](https://bit.ly/3iMGl6z) and [Facebook](https://bit.ly/3vvWDDC )Want to learn more about Ayn Rand and Objectivism? Visit the [Ayn Rand Institute](https://bit.ly/35qoEC3)Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/yaron-brook-show--3276901/support.Yaron is the executive chairman of the Ayn Rand Institute and a world class speaker. He is the coauthor of the national best-seller Free Market Revolution: How Ayn Rand's Ideas Can End Big Government, Equal is Unfair: America's Misguided Fight Against Income Inequality and In Pursuit of Wealth: The Moral Case for Finance. He speaks around the world on a variety of topics including the morality of capitalism, Ayn Rand and her philosophy, finance and economics, and the value of inequality.

//The Wire//1800Z July 16, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE ON RUSSIAN SHIPPING IN BLACK SEA, RUSSIA RETALIATES BY STRIKING UKRAINIAN SHIPPING. WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN CANADA.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Europe: The war in Ukraine has continued to expand, with attacks on Russian merchant vessels remaining constant in the Black Sea. Russia has likewise retaliated by striking Ukrainian vessels also located within the Black Sea, as well as several port cities in southwestern Ukraine.Middle East: The war continues as before, with regular strikes taking place in the coastal regions which have been host to targeting for several days. Last night the US struck the port of Bandar Abbas again, and the Iranians have responded with attacks on Kuwait, which continued sporadically overnight.Analyst Comment: One aspect of the war that has not escalated for now, has been the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. After the initial mutual strikes two days ago, the Saudi's have chosen to back off of this line of effort, probably because they realized how bad of an idea it is to start a fight with the Houthis right now. That Saudi East-West Pipeline is the main asset that is keeping Saudi Arabia in the global oil market right now, and the Houthis can very easily threaten their main revenue source.Canada: Over the past few days, wildfires have continued to spread throughout the nation. As of this morning, at total of 859x wildfires are actively burning nationwide in Canada, most of which are clustered in Ontario, Qeubec, and the Northwest Territories. Of these active fires, 63x are out of control with zero percent containment. Evacuations of thousands of rural and tribal areas have been ordered over thousands of square miles, and air quality alerts have been issued for much of the American northeast and mid-Atlantic due to the smoke.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: Though not exactly grabbing front page headlines, the war in Ukraine has continued to expand and become increasingly more serious during this year's summer offensive.Numbers are hard to independently verify, but the Ukrainians claim a total of 136x Russian vessels have been struck so far during this Black Sea targeting campaign since it began last week. This number seems a little high, but what is undeniable is that the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have become a new front during this war...for both sides, as demonstrated by the Russians now targeting Ukrainian ships. Equally important is the impact this is having on the broader Russian oil market. Previous strikes on petroleum refineries resulted in fuel shortages throughout Russia, which have varied by severity and location. Striking tankers in the Black Sea really only impacts the petroleum export market, and the long-term impacts of this will be interesting to follow. Like it or not, the concept of globalization has functioned as designed, and most nations are linked to each other in ways that are not readily apparent at first. Russia mostly exports oil to India and China, and their exports have remained high during the Persian Gulf crisis. So Ukraine, in striking the oil intended for China, is directly playing a hand in the Gulf War...a conflict thousands of miles away. How this will manifest over the next few weeks will be important. Gas prices in the US have been MUCH cheaper than they should be, due to a long list of factors, one of which has been the Chinese dipping into their own reserves to sharply reduce their demand. Ukraine strikes ships intended for China, and China now has to either dip into their reserves more...or buy more oil from the Middle East, and demand goes up in an already restricted supply chain. The Gulf War is still hot to some degree, and the miniscule flow of oil that had begun to trickle out of the Gulf during the ceasefire has once again slowed to a drip...and now that Ukraine is striking Russian oil intended for China, an already tight oil market is probably going to be squeezed even harder.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Recorded with an information cutoff of 12:53 PM Central Time on Friday, July 17, 2026.This episode reads and explains the National Weather Service Chicago Area Forecast Discussion, follows Canadian wildfire smoke through Great Lakes forecast discussions, and examines extreme heat and humidity in the United States, Canada, Europe, Israel, Iran's Lut Desert, and the Persian Gulf. It closes with the Storm Prediction Center severe-weather outlook and a plain-language explanation of ridges, heat domes, the Bermuda High, and 500-millibar geopotential heights. Forecasts are time-sensitive and can change.CHAPTERS00:00 Cold open, cutoff, and AI disclosure01:56 Chicago Area Forecast Discussion18:21 Canadian wildfire smoke26:52 Extreme heat: United States and world29:20 Israel spotlight31:25 Lut Desert: myth versus reality33:53 Persian Gulf humidity36:47 Severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center40:51 Synoptic science: ridges, heat domes, and 500-millibar heights43:24 Recap and sign-offPRIMARY SOURCESNWS Chicago: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=0NWS Green Bay: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GRB&issuedby=GRB&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=0NWS Marquette: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MQT&issuedby=MQT&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=0SPC Day 1: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.htmlSPC Day 2: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.htmlIsrael Meteorological Service: https://ims.gov.il/en/WarningsCopernicus Climate Change Service: https://climate.copernicus.eu/intense-heatwave-brings-hottest-june-western-europe-month-ranks-second-warmest-globallyMUSIC"Glass Beads" and "Our Names Engraved" by Blue Dot Sessions, used with separate commercial permission confirmed by the publisher.https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Blue_Dot_Sessions/The_Balloonist/Glass_Beads/https://freemusicarchive.org/music/Blue_Dot_Sessions/Duck_Lake/Our_Names_EngravedThe calm Atlantic-style production bed was created specifically for this episode.AI DISCLOSUREThis episode was produced with artificial-intelligence assistance, including research, drafting, artwork, and narration. Weather information came primarily from official government and meteorological sources at the times stated; a few secondary or commercial observations are clearly labeled in the episode. This program is general information and not a substitute for official warnings.Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. Contact: kolsimchaproductions@outlook.comHistorical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email kolsimchaproductions@outlook.com so we can look into it and correct it. Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simchaThis episode includes AI-generated content.

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this episode of The Wright Report, Bryan breaks down Trump's rapidly expanding military campaign against Iran, including new strikes on contested Persian Gulf islands that could pave the way for U.S. boots on the ground. Bryan lays out the Pentagon's strategy to hammer Iran's air defenses and seize strategic islands near the Strait of Hormuz, plus what it would take to destroy Iran's deeply buried nuclear program at Pickaxe Mountain. He also breaks down the growing economic fallout, with emergency oil reserves nearly exhausted and the Red Sea shaping up as the next flashpoint. Plus, Bryan covers Trump's reversal on ICE traffic stop arrests after a string of deadly encounters, an escalating theological clash between JD Vance and the Vatican over immigration, a batch of encouraging economic data, and the Democratic Socialists' new platform to abolish the presidency, Senate, and Supreme Court. "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32   Keywords: Wright Report, Bryan Dean Wright, Iran war, Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Pickaxe Mountain, Kharg Island, ICE traffic stops, immigration, JD Vance, Pope Leo, Vatican, Marco Rubio, ICC, US economy, inflation, DSA platform, Democratic Socialists, Bernie Sanders, AOC, Zohran Mamdani

Are U.S. strikes against Iran enough to keep the strategic waterway open, or is our strategy fundamentally flawed? Retired Navy Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery joins Brian Kilmeade directly from Kyiv to break down the ongoing military escalation in the Persian Gulf. Admiral Montgomery reacts to Vice President JD Vance's "warmongering" accusations from the Joe Rogan podcast, exposing why Vance's defensive stance on the poorly written Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is inconsistent with reality. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The U.S. and China clashed at the United Nations this week, with each accusing the other of fueling instability in the Persian Gulf. Washington has long argued that Beijing plays a pivotal role in the conflict as the largest buyer of Iranian oil and a supplier of dual-use technologies that could support Tehran's military. Many experts, however, dispute that assessment. They argue that China's ability to influence Iran is far more limited than commonly assumed and that there is little evidence Tehran would bow to Chinese pressure on matters of national security. Nor is there any indication that Beijing is willing to use whatever leverage it may have. Jesse Marks, CEO of the Asia-Middle East consultancy Rihla Research & Advisory and a leading scholar of Chinese diplomacy in the region, joins Eric to explain why Beijing is likely to remain a largely passive player, both as the war continues and in whatever political settlement eventually emerges. Show Notes: East Asia Forum: Iran's bid for Beijing's backing meets its limits by Jesse Marks Arab Gulf States Institute: China's Mediation Ceiling in the Iran War by Jesse Marks Gulf International Forum: Parallel, Not Replacement: Why China Can't Supplant U.S. Security in the Gulf by Jesse Marks & Chenjie Song

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:1) The US struck Iran for a fifth straight day and hit a sanctioned oil tanker near the country's main export terminal. Iran responded to the US's barrage by firing upon American bases in Kuwait and Jordan, with the Jordanian government intercepting eight missiles. The US and Iran accuse each other of breaching the terms of a memorandum of understanding, which was meant to reopen the Strait of Hormuz but worded ambiguously as to how fast that would happen. It comes as Fatih Birol, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, says the global economy faces a renewed challenge if the conflict that's choked the Strait of Hormuz isn't resolved in a matter of weeks. 2) Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche told senators he would support legislation to foreclose the creation of a $1.8 billion government weaponization fund. Blanche committed to helping craft the legislation during a hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee on his nomination to be attorney general. Senators questioned whether Blanche can operate independently from President Trump, who he previously represented in criminal cases while in private practice.3) Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said that President Trump hasn’t tried to interfere with the central bank. Warsh stated that he would continue to do his job independently, even if Trump tried to influence the conduct of monetary policy. Trump reiterated his view that he would like to see interest rates go down, saying he would like the country to have the lowest rate anywhere in the world. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The announcement of a Russian ban on diesel exports following supply shortages at gas stations across the country has spurred cracks to widen significantly in the European market at a time when product markets continue to face uncertainty over the recovery of supply from the Persian Gulf and crude markets face pressure from low Chinese demand. In this episode, Gary Clark, associate director, price reporting, Elza Turner, global lead specialist, price reporting, Virginie Malicier, price reporting manager, and senior price reporter Patrick McAllister peel back the key developments behind the recent pricing movements, providing an update on the situation within Russia, the European middle distillate space and the European crude complex.

Taiwanese chip giant TSMC smashes another record with an 80 per cent surge in Q2 net profits on the building wave of demand for its AI processors. Further exchanges of fire between the U.S. and Iran in the Persian Gulf could reportedly prompt President Trump to expand operations in the region. Trump remains confident the conflict can be concluded in the near future. Sterling hits a yearly high despite reports incoming prime minister Andy Burnham is set to make Shabana Mahmood Chancellor of the Exchequer as Sir Keir Starmer attends his final PMQs. UK GDP for May ekes out growth of 1.3 per cent year-on-year. However, May manufacturing is down by 1.8 per cent year-on-year.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Is a deal in the works between Pres. Trump and Iran? The US military is hitting targets and keeping shipping in the Persian Gulf flowing, while Iran is sending missiles and drones to neighboring countries and US military bases. Will Trump finish the job to secure peace? Perspective and commentary on the war, and all of Thursday morning's biggest stories

CLiz Peek discusses the strong American economy, noting that small businesses feel relief as tariff threats abate and inflation falls. Lower energy and gasoline prices have cheered investors. Anecdotal evidence from local bookstores and ice cream parlors reinforces a positive outlook for consumer sentiment. (1)Liz Peek highlights the rise of the Democratic Socialists of America as a significant threat to established Democraticincumbents. Young voters are flocking to radical platforms promising free services. Rahm Emanuel emerges as a blunt voice for the party, urging a challenge against these "loons." (2)Jonathan Schanzer reports on the restart of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, where oil prices have hit $87 per barrel. The US is conducting air strikes against Iranian naval assets and drone bases. Schanzer questions why these strategic targets were not hit earlier in the conflict. (3)Jonathan Schanzer explores the Houthi threat in North Yemen and the potential for a wider regional conflict. While the US keeps Israel on the sidelines to avoid escalation, Turkey's "neo-Ottoman" ambitions are rising. Schanzer warns that Turkey seeks to fill the power vacuum left by Iran. (4)Mary Kissel analyzes the failure of the Iran ceasefire, noting that Iran calculated the US lacks the will for ground intervention. The conflict centers on Iran's suspect nuclear program, with potential new targets at Pickaxe Mountain. Public engagement remains low despite rising energy costs. (5)Mary Kissel discusses NATO's decision to reinforce Ukraine with advanced drone technology and Patriot missile manufacturing. Ukraine is hailed as the "future of warfare," transitioning from a security consumer to a security contributor. Kissel emphasizes the need for the US to counter Russian propaganda. (6)Joseph Sternberg examines Germany's economic struggles under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, including a shift toward deregulation and infrastructure borrowing. Massive layoffs at Volkswagen signal the end of traditional "lifetime employment." Merz faces political challenges from Social Democrats who resist aggressive free-market changes. (7)Joseph Sternberg addresses the assassination of former MP Ann Widdecombe, which is being investigated as a possible act of political violence. Sternberg notes that existential political rhetoric on social media often inspires such attacks. These tensions reflect broader global concerns regarding political polarization. (8)Gregory Copley critiques the stalemate in the Persian Gulf, suggesting that US air strikes alone cannot win without a plan for regime change. He advocates for supporting the domestic Iranian population against the clerical leadership. Turkey's opposition to empowering Kurdish forces remains a significant complication. (9)Gregory Copley discusses the inevitability of Ukraine's path to NATO, a move he views as a provocation to Russia. He argues the war preserves President Zelensky's power without a democratic mandate. However, he acknowledges Ukraine's technological ingenuity in developing swarming drone capabilities for modern combat. (10)Gregory Copley highlights Australia's declining regional power as Indonesia and India rise strategically. China'smissile tests and interest in Antarctica further destabilize the South Pacific. As the Antarctic Treaty ends, a scramble for the world's largest oil deposits appears imminent. (11)Gregory Copley details King Charles III's visit to the Isle of Man, the world's oldest continuous parliament. The King also held a private, discreet meeting with Prince Harry. Meanwhile, the UK faces rising anxiety over security for political leaders following the assassination of Ann Widdecombe. (12)Jeff McCausland discusses the closing of the Strait of Hormuz due to Iranian threats from land-based missiles and drones. President Trump faces a dilemma: muddle through, escalate with ground forces, or withdraw. McCausland warns that seizing territory like Kharg Island would result in significant casualties. (13)Jeff McCausland notes that Europe now views Ukraine as a security contributor due to its mastery of drone and robotic warfare. While Putin considers escalation or mobilization, Chinese pressure likely prevents the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The US continues to communicate "serious consequences." (14)Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa condemn Gustavo Petro's refusal to recognize election results in Colombia. They criticize Brazil's President Lula for his silence on criminal leftist regimes. The "Shield of the Americas" alliance is emerging to defend regional democracy and fight corruption. (15)Ernesto Araújo and Alejandro Peña Esclusa report that 60,000 people are missing in Venezuela following catastrophic earthquakes and government neglect. They propose an emergency temporary government to replace the Rodriguezsiblings. Brazil hosts 700,000 refugees fleeing the "gangland" regime's destruction. (16)All 16 segments formatted, tail numbers (1)–(16). Name check clean: Liz Peek, Peña Esclusa, Araújo with the accent, Ann Widdecombe all correct.

Gregory Copley critiques the stalemate in the Persian Gulf, suggesting that US air strikes alone cannot win without a plan for regime change. He advocates for supporting the domestic Iranian population against the clerical leadership. Turkey's opposition to empowering Kurdish forces remains a significant complication. (9)1904

Global conflict in the Persian Gulf have impacted fuel and fertilizer prices for U.S. farmers. Now, conflict in the Black Sea Region between Russia and Ukraine threaten not only fuel but food for the rest of the world. Arlan Suderman with StoneX says some of the worst fears in the market are now being realized. 

Pres. Trump is hammering Iran in Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz targets, and reinstituted military control of shipping in the region. Iran defied ceasefire agreements and free trade, and now protests US action as human rights violations. But, the ultimate US goal is to protect humanity. Perspective and commentary on keeping America secure and safe, and all of Wednesday morning's biggest stories

Nearly a month after a ceasefire, the US-Iran deal seems to have all but collapsed as both nations have slipped back into active conflict. On Sunday, Tehran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is once again closed—a move President Trump immediately countered, stating the waterway will remain open "with or without Iran." Since then, both the US and Iran have reportedly begun new attacks, and the President said the US will reinstate its blockade to become the "guardian" of the strait, even floating a controversial plan to charge commercial ships to ensure their safe passage.  We are in a critical window where both sides are aggressively trying to redefine their leverage in the Persian Gulf region, yet neither has fully abandoned the negotiating table. The U.S. can't maintain its high-stakes engagement indefinitely.  So are we right back to square one? Is this perpetual state of uncertainty the new normal for the Strait of Hormuz? What realistic leverage does Washington still possess on the nuclear front? And with senior Houthi leaders announcing their involvement, how does the collapse of this deal reverberate throughout the Persian Gulf region?  Today on the show, Jason Bordoff discusses the current and unpredictable state of affairs in the strait, and how it could play out in the coming weeks and months, with Suzanne Maloney, the vice president and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution. Suzanne's research focuses on Iran and Persian Gulf energy. She has advised Democratic and Republican administrations on Iran policy, including as an external advisor to senior State Department officials during the Obama administration and as a member of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's Policy Planning staff during the administration of George W. Bush. Earlier in her career, she served as Middle East advisor for ExxonMobil Corporation. Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.  

//The Wire//1900Z July 14, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS HOT WITH USA AND IRAN EXCHANGING HEAVY FIRE OVERNIGHT. NEW YORK TIMES JOURNALISTS ISSUED SUBPOENAS REGARDING THEIR REPORTING ON AIR FORCE ONE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with the attack/counterattack cycle no longer being distinguishable, as all belligerents are now attacking constantly. At least two more ships have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz since last night, and the US has continued to fly continuous sorties to strike targets within Iran. Dozens of targets were struck overnight, with CENTCOM announcing that the sorties took 5 hours to complete throughout the region. As of this morning, nearly all of the targets that have been struck have been within a few hundred yards of the Gulf, with heavy concentrations of targets being located within Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Jask, all of which are major naval bases. Most of the Gulf islands have also been struck, with Qeshm and Kish Islands being targeted heavily this afternoon.Conversely, Iran has conducted their own strikes in Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. In Kuwait, Iranian forces have conducted counter-battery fire on American HIMARS missile launcher sites, with multiple ballistic missile strikes taking place at most of the US bases and missile launch sites all day.Analyst Comment: Over the past 24 hours, the war in the Middle East has returned to the level of fighting first observed during the height of the war back in March. How long this is planned to continue is unknown, but this is not a slight increase in targeting; the war appears to be fully back on once again.United Kingdom: This morning Counterterrorism police released more details regarding a high-profile murder case that took place last week. On Thursday, Ann Widdecombe was found murdered in her home in the town of Haytor in Devon. After her murder was discovered, local authorities immediately referred the case to counterterrorism, and one suspect has already been arrested in conjunction with this case. This suspect has been charged for the murder, and as of this morning terrorism offenses have been added to the list of charges.Analyst Comment: This case is noteworthy as most of the information so far indicates this was a political assassination, and the speed at which authorities have immediately declared this to be a terrorism incident is very, very unusual. Widdecombe was a former Member of Parliament, and in her later years was a familiar conservative political commentator known to weigh in on political issues throughout the nation. More details may or may not come to light in due time regarding the identity of the suspect, but due to the high-profile nature of this murder, this case will be in the headlines for a while.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - Yesterday a total of five New York Times reporters have been subpoenaed to appear before a grand jury, to testify regarding their reporting on the alleged security breaches onboard the new Air Force One. Last week, President Trump flew to Turkey for the NATO summit on the new airframe, but during the trip, an undisclosed security issue prompted the Secret Service to switch back to the older platform.Analyst Comment: The details of exactly what the alleged crimes are, have not been disclosed. The New York Times has a history of publishing content which could lead to security issues, but in this case nothing they wrote in their original report appears to have been classified. However, they did explicitly state that they had a source who had classified knowledge of the defenses (or rather, the alleged lack of defenses) on the new Air Force One platform, which is probably why the harsh crackdown on the New York Times. They also made the claim that the new airframe has not had enough time to install the anti-missile countermeasures of the older platform, though no detail on this was provided. Regardless, talking to journalists in any capacity about any of the protection measures used by the White House is a huge no-no, and one of the most sensitive issues that always results in a very heavy-handed response.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: As the war in the Persian Gulf rages on, concerns are growing regarding the apparent widening of the war to include the Red Sea region. The mutual targeting between the Saudis and the Houthis in Yemen has continued to some degree, though it's too soon to tell if either party is committed to turning this into a more protracted fight. If that is the chosen course of action, the situation is likely to get very serious.While the Strait of Hormuz remains a hot warzone that has restricted the flow of about 20 million barrels per day out of the region, the Saudi East-West Pipeline system has been working to reduce this deficit by pumping roughly 7 million barrels per day during most of this conflict. This has eased the burden of Hormuz being cut off, and has been one of the main factors keeping oil from reaching $200 per barrel. However, this pipeline runs from the Gulf, across the desert, before terminating in Yanbu at a major oil export terminal. This terminal....is within missile range of the Houthis. Somewhat interestingly, there are also very little air defenses in the southern regions of Saudi Arabia despite the Saudis fighting the Houthis for a couple of decades at this point; nearly all missile defenses are on the northern coastline or in the vicinity of American bases. So far during this conflict, the Iranians have successfully struck the Yanbu oil terminal using extremely long-range (and slow-flying) drones. The Houthis have a much higher chance of success in threatening Yanbu, and if they are able to strike this facility, the global oil crisis will go from worse to worst.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

AP correspondent Ben Thomas reports there's been another round of U.S. strikes and Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf.

Brent Sadler from The Heritage Foundation joins the show to talk about the latest US attacks on Iran.

//The Wire//2300Z July 13, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR REIGNITES AS MAJOR STRIKES REPORTED THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST. HOUTHIS JOIN THE WAR AS MILITARY BASES STRUCK IN SAUDI ARABIA. USA/IRAN CONTINUE MUTUAL TARGETING WITH MANY MILITARY INSTALLATIONS TARGETED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM PASSES AWAY UNDER UNCLEAR CIRCUMSTANCES IN WASHINGTON.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: Over the weekend the war continued to escalate with major attacks being reported throughout the region. On Saturday, the Iranians allegedly struck a containership in the Strait of Hormuz for attempting to sneak through the waterway without their permission. The crew of this vessel abandoned ship, and the vessel is reportedly sinking in the Strait.After this initial strike, the United States struck several dozen targets within Iran. One of the most significant strikes conducted by the United States was an airstrike at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. One of the buildings a few feet away from the reactor core was struck, and the status of the power plant is unknown. At least one of the attacks this morning involved the United States conducting several Unmanned Surface Vessel attacks on the port of Bandar Abbas, targeting an Iranian submarine and several other warships. Analyst Comment: Other more traditional airstrikes also continued regularly throughout the day, with Iranian retaliatory strikes being reported at nearly every US base in the region, from Kuwait to the UAE. Full battle damage assessment will take some time due to the sheer volume of locations struck by both the United States and Iran.Red Sea/HOA: Following last night's targeting efforts to the north in the Persian Gulf, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia engaged in mutual targeting early this morning. Houthi rebels launched several ballistic missiles toward targets in Saudi Arabia, and the Saudi's responded by conducting airstrikes throughout the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.Analyst Comment: These targeting efforts in Yemen have complicated maritime shipping through the Bab El Mandeb Strait, elevating concerns that another major maritime choke point might be turning into a warzone. During the American campaign to combat the Houthis in March of last year (dubbed Operation ROUGH RIDER), the Houthis demonstrated the ability to disrupt shipping through the Strait, to the point that nearly all maritime shipping chose to re-route around the continent of Africa. Though that military operation departed the news headlines after a few weeks, even as of a year later (even before the Iran war began), many maritime shipping companies were avoiding the Red Sea a full year after the strikes. Everyone has been waiting for the Houthis to enter the current war on the Iranian side, and last night's strikes may be an indication that relationship is growing.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - Saturday night, Senator Lindsey Graham reportedly died after suffering a cardiac incident at his home on Capitol Hill, after returning from his trip to Ukraine. Initial statements claim that he suffered a tear of his aorta, and died instantly.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: As one might expect based on current events, the theories surrounding Graham's death largely focus around his trip to Ukraine. Normally, the trip into Ukraine for diplomats involves flying into Poland, then taking a train into Kiev. This trip usually takes most of the day. Also, on the same day as Graham's trip, Russia conducted two major strikes in Kiev. Some claims have been made that both of these strikes targeted both the drone factory that Graham visited, but also the hotel where he was staying during his visit. These claims will take some time to verify independently.Due to the timing of Graham's alleged departure, it's possibly mathematically questionable that Graham would have had enough time to transit back to the United States before his death was reported. As always, there's enough discrepancy in the timing to make it technically possible for Graham to have arrived home from Ukraine and immediately had a cardiac incident, but this timing would have been incredibly tight. In short, the theory that Graham was actually killed in Ukraine holds some weight at this present moment, based on the evidence we have right now, even as speculative as it is. Further investigation will indicate whether or not more credence should be granted to this possibility.Perhaps the biggest bit of evidence countering the theory of Graham being killed in Ukraine, is the sheer logistics of such a coverup operation. There's very little chance that his remains would have been located, recovered, identified, and transported back to the United States if he was killed during the strikes on a Ukrainian drone factory. These attacks would have made it challenging to identify anyone's remains, and similarly to the concerns of Graham possibly not having enough time to arrive back in the US, timing is the main issue. If Graham was observed alive after his departure from Ukraine, this would obviously dispel any of the more nefarious theories, but as it stands, it is not known which flight he took from Poland to the United States (which was likely a military or government flight).All things considered, the suspicious and coincidental circumstances of Graham's death can certainly be verified either way in due time, but Graham's death coupled with Senator Mitch McConnell's questionable status, means that Washington has been host to several shakeups involving key wartime decision makers this week.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

In this Monday edition of The Option Block, Mark Longo, Uncle Mike Tosaw, and Andrew Giovinazzi break down the lighter-than-expected market reaction to escalating headlines, China's mysterious domestic oil consumption cuts, and the massive wave of bank earnings hitting the tape this week. The crew dives deep into the options tape to track surging volume in the VIX July and October cycles, alongside heavy single-name trading in NVIDIA (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and the post-IPO fire sale in SpaceX. Plus, unusual activity lights up biotech name Agenus (AGEN) after securing a $340M colon cancer trial, and a short-term pop hits Shake Shack (SHAK). In the Strategy Block, Uncle Mike breaks down an educational, risk-managed way to scale into SpaceX using an August 1x2 ratio put spread—buying the 110 put and selling two of the 100 puts to create a heavily discounted entry point. What's inside this episode: The Trading Block: Market reaction to Persian Gulf tensions, oil hitting 1-week highs, and VIX volume surges. The Odd Block: Frenzied call buying in Agenus Inc. (AGEN) and short-term weekly targets in Shake Shack (SHAK). The Strategy Block: How to use a 1x2 ratio put spread to lower your break-even point on highly volatile stocks. Around the Block: Pre-earnings straddle pricing for JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS).

AP correspondent Karen Chammas reports the U.S. is fighting to gain control of a key oil route waterway in the Persian Gulf; a huge fire at a Thailand bar has killed dozens; Ukrainian President Zelenskyy heads to Paris to push for more funding ; and Hollywood actor Sam Neil has died.

Today's top stories, with context, in just 15 minutes.On today's podcast:1) The US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes overnight into Monday as they continued their tit-for-tat attacks while issuing conflicting declarations over whether the Strait of Hormuz was open to shipping. US Central Command said American forces carried out a new round of attacks to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the narrow waterway, hitting dozens of targets including Iranian air-defense systems and missile capabilities. Tehran retaliated with attacks on US allies in the Persian Gulf and beyond, targeting US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, and oil prices rose on fears that renewed clashes could further disrupt flows through Hormuz.2) The death of Senator Lindsey Graham leaves key US allies like Ukraine without one of their most effective conduits to the White House. Graham had spent much of President Trump’s second term trying to sustain US support for Ukraine’s defense against a Russian invasion, despite the US president’s testy relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Ukraine and other US allies will have to find other advocates, which won’t be easy, as Graham had honed a unique skill set, combining a close relationship to Trump, the ability to work with Senate Democrats and deep ties with foreign leaders.3) South Korea’s AI-fueled stock rally came under renewed pressure Monday as SK Hynix Inc. tumbled by a record 15%, underscoring growing investor concerns that the boom had become overstretched. The selloff sent the benchmark Kospi index down 9% and triggered a market-wide trading suspension, with peer Samsung Electronics Co. dropping nearly 11% and foreign investors offloading 1.7 trillion won worth of Kospi shares. SK Hynix’s market cap closed the day at $875 billion, with the company’s shares down at least 30% from peaks last month, as the excitement that powered the rally gives way to a much harsher reset in expectations.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In this Monday edition of The Option Block, Mark Longo, Uncle Mike Tosaw, and Andrew Giovinazzi break down the lighter-than-expected market reaction to escalating headlines, China's mysterious domestic oil consumption cuts, and the massive wave of bank earnings hitting the tape this week. The crew dives deep into the options tape to track surging volume in the VIX July and October cycles, alongside heavy single-name trading in NVIDIA (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and the post-IPO fire sale in SpaceX. Plus, unusual activity lights up biotech name Agenus (AGEN) after securing a $340M colon cancer trial, and a short-term pop hits Shake Shack (SHAK). In the Strategy Block, Uncle Mike breaks down an educational, risk-managed way to scale into SpaceX using an August 1x2 ratio put spread—buying the 110 put and selling two of the 100 puts to create a heavily discounted entry point. What's inside this episode: The Trading Block: Market reaction to Persian Gulf tensions, oil hitting 1-week highs, and VIX volume surges. The Odd Block: Frenzied call buying in Agenus Inc. (AGEN) and short-term weekly targets in Shake Shack (SHAK). The Strategy Block: How to use a 1x2 ratio put spread to lower your break-even point on highly volatile stocks. Around the Block: Pre-earnings straddle pricing for JPMorgan (JPM), Citi (C), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS).

In Iran, there is no established path for a veterinary student who wants to work with wildlife. So Arman Nourishirazi and his teammates built one.Based in Ahvaz, in the province of Khuzestan, Arman is a final year vet student in one of the richest bird regions in the Middle East, where the Persian Gulf coast, vast wetlands and the Eurasian African Flyway all converge. Working with his university's veterinary hospital and the local Department of Environment, he helped create a system that treats injured wild birds and gives other students a way into a field that was effectively closed to them.The patients range from eagles and barn owls to white storks and great white pelicans. Arman also talks us through the first documented case of avian malaria in a cattle egret in Iran, and the creative fix he and his team came up with when two juvenile barn owls refused to eat and human imprinting was the last thing they could risk.LinksCheck out Arman's LinkedIn and Instagram profiles.We'd love to hear from you ... share your thoughts, feedback and ideas.

So many news stories are part of the news cycle. Jim delivers those that are important from a Christian perspective. Here's a sample from the broadcast: --Tehran has dragged it's Persian Gulf neighbors back into the U.S./Iran war by firing a volley of drones and missiles at American partners across the region as part of a major flare-up in violence that upended peace talks. --According to NATO Secretary Mark Rutte, the fresh U.S. attacks on Iran were absolutely necessary. --The communication's office of Hamas' government in Gaza announced Monday that the head of the terrorist organization's government committee has submitted their resignation as part of a preparation to transfer administration of the Gaza strip to a technocratic committee affiliated with the Palestinian Authority. --Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Iran "definitely" possesses chemical weapons and would "not care a wit about murdering hundreds of thousands of Americans if they could." --Israel and Lebanon have moved to the implementation stage of the U.S. brokered framework agreement that was reached last month. --Both Republicans and Democrats are opposing President Trump's plan to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. --President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that Spain came back all the way and has agreed to boost NATO payments after he ordered a U.S. trade embargo with the country over its reluctance to contribute more to the organization. --Graham Platner, the Maine Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, has withdrawn his name from the race against Susan Collins. --Don't miss this edition of Crosstalk!

So many news stories are part of the news cycle. Jim delivers those that are important from a Christian perspective. Here's a sample from the broadcast: --Tehran has dragged it's Persian Gulf neighbors back into the U.S./Iran war by firing a volley of drones and missiles at American partners across the region as part of a major flare-up in violence that upended peace talks. --According to NATO Secretary Mark Rutte, the fresh U.S. attacks on Iran were absolutely necessary. --The communication's office of Hamas' government in Gaza announced Monday that the head of the terrorist organization's government committee has submitted their resignation as part of a preparation to transfer administration of the Gaza strip to a technocratic committee affiliated with the Palestinian Authority. --Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Iran "definitely" possesses chemical weapons and would "not care a wit about murdering hundreds of thousands of Americans if they could." --Israel and Lebanon have moved to the implementation stage of the U.S. brokered framework agreement that was reached last month. --Both Republicans and Democrats are opposing President Trump's plan to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. --President Trump told reporters on Air Force One that Spain came back all the way and has agreed to boost NATO payments after he ordered a U.S. trade embargo with the country over its reluctance to contribute more to the organization. --Graham Platner, the Maine Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate, has withdrawn his name from the race against Susan Collins. --Don't miss this edition of Crosstalk!

An Unstable Stalemate in the Persian Gulf is the Likely Outcome of Trump's Disastrous War | With the World's Richest Oligarchs Pushing AI, Will the People Demand Some Agency Over the Future of Their Communities and Livelihoods? | A View From Canada on the Zombification of America as the USA Destroys Itself backgroundbriefing.org/donate twitter.com/ianmastersmedia bsky.app/profile/ianmastersmedia.bsky.social linktr.ee/backgroundbriefing

AP correspondent Karen Chammas reports US and Iran exchange intensifying fire across the Persian Gulf as interim deal to end war threatened.

In this episode, we break down "From Here to the Pharmacy" as a soldier returns from the Persian Gulf and shows up at Blanche's door — he was her lover before he deployed, and now he's back. The episode handles the reunion with more complexity than a simple love story would, asking what we owe someone who held onto us through something we may have moved past. Blanche is not always good at those calculations, and this episode makes her sit with one she can't charm her way out of.  --- If you would like to support this podcast by making a donation, please do so with cashapp to $pasta26mc

Canada's Extreme Dew Points & Expanding Heat Dome 00:00-01:02: Introduction to an unprecedented and serious heat situation developing in southern Canada and the upper Midwest, featuring world-record dew points in the 80s, comparable only to the Persian Gulf.01:02-02:06: Emphasis on Canadian dew points peaking in the 80s, highlighting the shock value on wet bulb globe temperature maps, particularly for Winnipeg, Manitoba.02:06-03:10: Further details on Winnipeg's dew points reaching the low 80s, along with a mention of slow internet preventing full map display but reiterating extremely high dew points and temperatures.03:10-04:15: Discussion of extreme heat in terms of pure temperature, with Montana and North Dakota reaching 108°F and 107°F, and the redeveloping, stronger, and more northern heat dome.04:15-05:18: The heat dome's expansion into Canada (600 decameter), questioning lower forecasts by other meteorologists, and explaining how high humidity (dew points) will make heat indexes much higher.05:18-06:21: Environmental Canada's humidex warnings for Winnipeg, forecasting 45°C (113°F) or higher, indicating that southern Canada will experience the overall hottest conditions.06:21-07:26: Explanation of the "Ring of Fire" around a closed heat dome, its contrast to last week's heat dome, the long daylight hours in northern regions, and potential for severe thunderstorms.07:26-08:35: Doubts about current low-90s forecasts for the Midwest, asserting that solid mid-90s to over 100°F are more likely, even with potential model overestimation, and the impact of long days and solar insolation.08:35-09:16: Conclusion emphasizing the extreme danger and the belief that forecasters are underestimating the severity, encouraging listeners to stay informed via official weather services.20 Hashtags: #ExtremeHeat #CanadaHeatwave #DewPointRecords #HeatDome2026 #MidwestWeather #GlobalWarmingImpact #UnprecedentedWeather #WinnipegHeat #ManitobaWeather #HumidexWarning #WeatherAlert #ClimateChange #DangerousHeat #Summer2026 #NorthAmericanWeather #WetBulbTemperature #RingOfFire #WeatherForecast #HeatRisk #ClimateCrisisBecome a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/weather-with-enthusiasm--4911017/support.Weather with Enthusiasm is produced by Kol Simcha Productions.New episodes drop daily (B'N)— a morning forecast at 7 AM and historical deep dives Tuesdays and Thursdays. Contact: kolsimchaproductions@outlook.comHistorical content is thoroughly researched and factually verified. After it has been factually verified it often will say so in the description. Should you find any mistakes, please email kolsimchaproductions@outlook.com so we can look into it and correct it. Not affiliated with any government agency or academic institution. Presented for educational and entertainment purposes — with meaning.Support the show — exclusive bonus episodes available to subscribers for just $2/month at spreaker.com/organization/kol-simcha

Russian motorists queue for miles in the hope of buying petrol, but President Putin describes the problem as manageable.Meanwhile fighting has erupted in the Persian Gulf with both US and Iran firing at targets on land and at sea. Almost no ships are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz.And the world's biggest professional ESports event gets under way in Paris.

US President Donald Trump is threatening to attack more Iranian ships. Global oil prices are rising in response to the renewed violence in the Persian Gulf. Trump is giving a license for Patriot air defense systems to be made overseas. A Canadian company is arming Ukraine with drone. Prime Minister Mark Carney has quietly cancelled the second phase of a long-standing competition to purchase military equipment. Dozens charged with murder, extortion and more in crackdown on India-based organized crime groups. A Canadian expedition has successfully reached the wreck of Ernest Shackleton's polar ship.

Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz are testing more than regional stability—they are challenging the future of global commerce, maritime security, and U.S. strategic credibility — and are provocations that have now effectively ended the ceasefire. This episode of STRAT with retired Marine Intelligence Officer Hal Kempfer examines Iran's alleged violations of post-conflict agreements, including attacks on commercial shipping, coercive maritime practices, and continued pressure on one of the world's most critical energy corridors. The discussion explores how Gulf nations are reassessing their security partnerships, why shifting U.S. military posture is influencing regional diplomacy, and how renewed sanctions and military strikes signal a changing phase in the confrontation. The episode also analyzes the implications of Iranian threats against U.S. leadership, the evolving relationship between Washington and Jerusalem, and the broader risks posed to international trade through strategic maritime chokepoints. From energy markets to global supply chains, this conversation provides a strategic assessment of how events in the Persian Gulf could reshape geopolitical competition, economic stability, and security policy well beyond the Middle East.Takeaways:Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to challenge regional security and freedom of navigation.Maritime disruptions threaten global energy markets and international supply chains.Gulf nations are reassessing long-standing security relationships with the United States.U.S. military repositioning is influencing strategic calculations throughout the region.Renewed sanctions and military strikes signal a tougher American response to Iranian actions.Maritime chokepoints are becoming increasingly important tools of geopolitical leverage.Rising instability could increase shipping costs, insurance rates, and consumer prices worldwide.Strategic competition in the Middle East continues to shape global economic and security policy#STRATPodcast #HalKempfer #MutualBroadcastingSystem #StrategicRiskAnalysis #Iran #StraitOfHormuz #PersianGulf #MaritimeSecurity #GlobalTrade #EnergySecurity #USForeignPolicy #MiddleEast #Geopolitics #CENTCOM #ShippingSecurity #OilMarkets #NationalSecurity #GlobalEconomy #RiskAssessment #InternationalRelations

//The Wire//2300Z July 7, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EXPLOSIONS REPORTED NEAR HOTEL HOUSING FRENCH PRESIDENT DURING STATE VISIT TO DAMASCUS. MONACO BOMBER FOUND DEAD IN UKRAINE. IRAN RESUMES TARGETING OF UNAUTHORIZED TRANSITS OF HORMUZ STRAIT. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING STATUS OF SENATOR MCCONNELL'S HEALTH, COMPLICATING UPCOMING ELECTION.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Syria: This morning several explosive devices were detonated in Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit. The first device took the form of a Vehicle-Borne IED (VBIED) which was detonated on the street adjacent to the Ministry of Tourism, wounding many people including the Assistant Deputy Minister of Tourism. A few minutes after this device detonated, another device detonated on the street immediately adjacent to the initial blast site. At the time of the blasts, President Macron was staying at the Four Seasons hotel directly across the street from the blast site. Macron was not wounded during the attack, and has not canceled his state visit to Syria.Analyst Comment: This complex attack was very likely targeting Macron himself, or at least trying to get as close as possible to cause diplomatic trouble. Throughout the region, it's extremely common for terror groups to conduct attacks while foreign dignitaries are visiting, so as to embarrass their political leadership.Ukraine: Yesterday one of the lead suspects in the Monaco bombing case was found dead. Anastasiia Berezovska was the individual suspected of dropping off the bomb at the residence of Vadym Yermolaiev a few weeks ago. Berezovska was found at an undisclosed location in Ukraine with multiple gunshots to the head. After her death was discovered, an actively-serving member of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MoD confessed to her murder.Analyst Comment: Very clearly, someone is tying up the loose ends in this case, and doing so very publicly to send a message. Now that the lead suspect in the bombing case is dead, the entire affair is tidied up neatly, and no further investigation can be undertaken regarding who Berezovska was working for.-HomeFront-Washington D.C. - Concerns are growing regarding the status of Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized for several weeks. On June 14th, McConnell was found unconscious on the floor of his home in Capitol Hill after suffering an apparent heart attack. CPR was performed at the scene, and he was transported to a hospital. Apart from those initial details, there is currently no indication of his status beyond unconfirmed rumor.Analyst Comment: McConnell's health has been extremely concerning over the past few years, with several viral media incidents indicating that he is not well. In this case, three days after his heart attack, his wife Elaine Chao traveled to China to meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng. As a result of the timing of this visit, and the extreme secrecy surrounding the health of a man who has been of ailing health for years, concerns are growing regarding McConnell's status. In Kentucky, election law regarding position appointments has recently changed. Instead of the Governor being able to make an appointment for the seat, if a Senator dies in office, a special election is now mandatory. As such if McConnell passes away before the election, a special election would have to be held to fill the vacancy of only a couple of months, before the general election in November.However, the timing matters. If a Kentucky Senator dies in office (and thus vacates the seat) less than 63 days before the election, a special election would probably not be required and the normal election goes on. In this case, McConnell is not running again this year but the law regarding his seat still applies, so he must remain alive until September 1st, in order to prevent a special election which would allow a third-party candidate to run for his seat.New York: This morning evacuations were conducted after a high-rise building experienced a partial collapse in midtown Manhattan. The former Pfizer building at 235 E. 42nd St was undergoing major renovations/construction this morning, when approximately 5 floors of the building experienced a partial collapse. A perimeter cordon is currently in place around the building, as pieces of the structure have been falling on the street and sidewalk throughout the morning.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In the Persian Gulf, the Ayatollah's funeral has served as a sort of ceasefire-within-a-"ceasefire", and the United States and Iran took the past week to actually stop shooting at each other. During that time, merchant vessels also took the opportunity to slip through the Strait of Hormuz via the southern Omani route...something that Iran has repeatedly warned against. During the funeral, Iranian forces let this take place, however as of last night patience ran out and the Iranians have returned to striking commercial vessels for taking this route. So far today, a total of 4x confirmed (and probably one more unconfirmed) merchant vessels have been engaged by Iran for trying to sneak through the Strait. This is the most ships that have been struck since the hot-phase of the war, and these targeting efforts were not the result of ship captains unilaterally changing the route.Yesterday, the UKMTO directly stated that merchant traffic may take the southern route without coordinating with the Iranians. This statement was issued knowing full well that the Iranians have been warning ships that they must take the Larak Island route. Exactly who made the decision to issue this statement is unclear, but in effect the UKMTO told ships to take a route that they knew would be unsafe, gambling on the Iranians not conducting strikes during the Ayatollah's funeral. Now, the burning hulls of five ships are evidence that this gamble was ill advised. In response to these attacks, the United States has re-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports after granting them permission to export their oil a few weeks ago. Other than the sanctions, the United States is likely to conduct the standard retaliation strikes at random targets near Bandar Abbas over the next few days.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Alright, time for a status update on Persian Gulf shipping. Tanker traffic is slowly resuming, and Gulf producers are gradually restarting exports...but let's not go counting chickens quite yet.Join the Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/PeterZeihanFull Newsletter: https://bit.ly/4fh62ZO

AP correspondent Charles de Ledesma reports the British military says three tankers have been hit in the Strait of Hormuz, the latest attacks targeting vessels moving through the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf.

Preview for Later Today: Janatyn Sayeh of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies details Iranian threats against US and Israeli leadership. He warns that Tehran's rhetoric regarding "accountability" for the Supreme Leader'sdeath signals potential transnational assassination plots. (4)1904 PERSIAN GULF

It's Monday, July 6th, A.D. 2026. This is The Worldview in 5 Minutes heard on 140 radio stations and at www.TheWorldview.com.  I'm Adam McManus. (Adam@TheWorldview.com) By Adam McManus Nigerian Christian pastor, father of 16, needs your help As you know, Nigeria has become the epicenter of Christian martyrdom in the world. In the initial 96 days of 2026, from January 1 to April 6, Muslims killed 1,402 Nigerian Christians. Shockingly, that represents 72% of Christians killed worldwide.  In 2025, 3,490 Nigerian Christians were martyred.  A total of 52,000 brothers and sisters in Christ have lost their lives in the last decade.  Plus, Nigeria has been going through severe economic challenges as well, most of which are due to the country's 30% inflation rate.  Some Worldview listeners here in America are trying to help Nigerian Pastor G, a man they know personally and the father of 14 children, move to the United Kingdom for their safety and a better economic opportunity. Currently, his family lives in a small, one bedroom/one bath apartment with no kitchen. They use a small hallway as the place to prepare food. The family has three sets of triple bunk beds jammed in the bedroom, family room, and hallway. In addition, the power outages are frequent in Nigeria, which means that there's little to no air circulation in their tiny apartment.  Through a GoFundMe page, these American friends are helping raise the money needed to pay for a larger 3-bedroom apartment where the family of 16 can reside while they're gathering their required documents and visas. Other expenses include the air fare for the family and the initial three months of living expenses in the United Kingdom until the working-aged family members find jobs. Galatians 6:2 says, "Bear one another's burdens, and so fulfill the law of Christ." Check out Pastor G's 3-minute-long personal appeal, Pastor G's YouTube ministry channel, and a 41-minute documentary about the persecution in Nigeria called Faith Under Fire. We have them all linked in our transcript today at www.TheWorldview.com.  U.S. and Iran enter technical talks to secure peace deal The U.S. and Iran held technical talks in Doha, Qatar on July 1st as they seek to agree on the flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and secure a lasting ceasefire, reports Reuters. The talks are based on a 14-point interim accord signed last month that was meant to halt the war that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran in February and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whilst setting up 60 days of negotiations for a permanent peace deal. However, the U.S. and Iran have sparred publicly over the meaning of the interim pact, leading to military strikes over the past week.  Iran is determined to win international recognition of its control over the strait and its ability to levy fees on ships entering or leaving the Persian Gulf even if it has to do so by force. Traffic has partially resumed through the strait, which handled one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war. Iran has stated publicly that its priorities include agreeing on management of the Strait of Hormuz and the release of $6 billion in Iranian frozen assets. The current round of discussions would focus on those two issues. The stated priority of the U.S. is to ensure the free flow of traffic through the strait. President Donald Trump faces political pressure to contain the economic fallout from the war with Iran before midterm elections in November that will determine control of the U.S. Congress. In Iran, the theocratic leadership survived the war, but faces domestic anger over a shattered economy. Oil prices, which dipped sharply in the second quarter of the year, fell more than 1% on July 1st. The interim deal between the U.S. and Iran also provides for an end to a parallel conflict between Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. House passes online protections to shield children from porn The House successfully passed its internet safety package for children while the Senate continues to stall, reports The Daily Signal.   The Kids Internet and Digital Safety Act includes a key amendment that would protect children from viewing sexual content online, a statistic that continues to grow. Republican Congresswoman Mary Miller of Illinois, a mother of seven, who attends Oakland Christian Church with her husband Illinois GOP State Representative Chris Miller, sponsored the KIDS Act.  It combines 14 digital safety bills, including a key age-verification amendment. The Shielding Children's Retinas from Egregious Exposure on the Net Act would require platforms to use technology verification tools to ensure the accuracy of age verification to prevent minors from accessing sexual material. Congresswoman Miller said, “Sadly, the average age that our children are accessing pornography on the internet is 11, and by the time our children turn 18, 80% of them have access to pornography. Parents are doing their best, but the truth is, with a few clicks of a button, kids can access this filth. Research shows that it causes anxiety, depression, and risky sexual behavior. It's a rot to the soul of our children.” Congresswoman Miller added, “We require age identification for children to access other things like tobacco, alcohol, firearms, casinos, and any kind of adult entertainment. You have to prove your age. So, that's all this bill does. It requires the pornography companies to make the user prove their age.”  The KIDS Act has been sent to the Senate. Call your 2 U.S. Senators at 202-224-3121 and ask them to vote for the KIDS Act to protect children from pornography. In Matthew 18:10, Jesus said, “See that you do not despise one of these little ones. For I tell you that in Heaven their angels always see the face of My Father in Heaven." And send a 2-sentence thank you note to Congresswoman Mary Miller for her bold stand to protect the innocence of children. Send it to 3236 Broadway St, Suite 200, Quincy, IL 62301. Idaho: First state to institute firing squad for execution Idaho became the first state to institute a firing squad as the primary execution method for death row inmates, reports One America News. The change went into effect on July 1st  after the state legislature passed the law in 2025. However, lethal injection remains an alternative method. Other states have the firing squad explicitly listed as an alternative method including Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Utah. Martyrdom of Czech reformer Jan Hus in 1415 Six hundred eleven years ago today, on July 6th, 1415, Jan Hus, a Czech theologian and reformer, was burned at the stake in Constance, Germany for so-called “heresy.”  Hus denounced the moral failings of Catholic clergy, bishops, and even the papacy from his pulpit. He also objected to the Catholic teaching of indulgences, a financial gift to the church that would somehow shorten a dead Catholic's time in purgatory, a place nowhere substantiated in Scripture. Before his brutal execution, a tall paper hat was allegedly put upon his head with the inscription that meant “the leader of a heretical movement.” Worldview listeners in Indiana and New York weigh in I've asked for Worldview listeners to let me know why they like the broadcast in emails including their full name, city and state.   In an email sent to Adam@TheWorldview.com,  Adam Brouwer in Fort Wayne, Indiana wrote, “I just finished listening to today's newscast. I want to thank you for being biblically grounded . It's a great start to the day. It allows us to focus on what's going on around the world in a Christ-centered way. Keep up the great work.” And Sharon Jenx in Unadilla, New York said, “I started listening to The Worldview about three month ago. I love that only news is presented and your perspective is supported by God's opinion, articulated in His Word, not the world's!” 12 Worldview listeners gave $4,140 last Friday And finally, last Friday, 12 Worldview listeners stepped up to the plate and invested their treasure to fund the six-member team behind The Worldview for another 365 days. Our thanks to Bennie in Clintwood, Virgina and Nancy in Edmonds, Washington – both of whom gave $25, as well as Holly in San Antonio, Texas who gave $40. We appreciate Karen in Waterford, Wisconsin and Stephen in Adrian, Oregon – both of whom gave $50 as well as Zephaniah in Lomax, Illinois who gave $100. We were touched by the kindness of Frances in Beacon, New York who gave $350, Bill in Castle Rock, Colorado who gave $500, and Thomas in Wasilla, Alaska who gave $600. And we're grateful to God for Chris in Columbus, North Carolina and Thomas in Wasilla, Alaska – both of whom pledged $50/month for 12 months for a gift of $600 each as well as Shane in Elbert, Colorado who pledged $100/month for 12 months for a gift of $1,200. Those 12 gifts added up to $4,140. That's the most given in the first three days of July. Ready for our new grand total? Drum roll please. (drum roll sound effect) $6,702. (sound effect of people cheering) We need to raise $24,173 by this Friday, July 10th toward our $123,500 finish line come July 31st. We need to find 5 Worldview listeners who will pledge $100 per month for 12 months or give a one-time gift of $1,200, 15 folks who will pledge $50/month or a give one-time gift of $600 and 30 listeners who will pledge $25 per month or give a one-time gift of $300. Go to TheWorldview.com, click on Give, select the dollar amount, and make sure to click on the “recurring” button if that's your wish.   This Christian newscast does not bow to our politically correct culture. We champion the truth and a Biblical worldview. That's why you love it!  Invest in it today so that this newscast can continue. Again, go to TheWorldview.com, and click on Give. Close And that's The Worldview on this Monday, July 6th, in the year of our Lord 2026. Subscribe for free by Spotify, Amazon Music, or by iTunes or email to our unique Christian newscast at www.TheWorldview.com.  Plus, you can get the Generations app through Google Play or The App Store. I'm Adam McManus (Adam@TheWorldview.com). Seize the day for Jesus Christ.

Brent traded near $70/b last week, reflecting confidence that oil will keep moving out of the Persian Gulf despite continuing risks around the Strait of Hormuz. Some operators are using shuttle runs to maintain crude flows. Please note: this podcast is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell financial instruments. This podcast does not constitute a personal recommendation and is not investment advice. Investec

In this episode, panelists discuss the growing economic and security threats facing Persian Gulf countries and the future of U.S. engagement in the region.   Host: Karen E. Young, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University; CFR Member   Guests: Joseph L. Votel, Distinguished Chair, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point; Former Commander, U.S. Central Command (2016–2019); CFR Member   Robert Mogielnicki, Nonresident Fellow, Arab Gulf States Institute; Middle East Advisor, Teneo; CFR Term Member   Elisa Catalano Ewers, Senior Fellow for Middle East Studies, Council on Foreign Relations   Want more comprehensive analysis of global news and events sent straight to your inbox? Subscribe to CFR's Daily News Brief newsletter.   To keep tabs on all CFR events, visit cfr.org/event. To watch this event, please visit it on our YouTube channel: The Gulf After the Iran War

An examination of the deepest level of the Ancient Mesopotamia iceberg, commonly labeled "Theories and Speculative Ideas." The video reviews each claim against primary sources from Sumer, Akkad, Babylon, and Assyria, including cuneiform tablets, excavation reports, and geological data, to demonstrate how historical method evaluates extraordinary claims.Coverage includes: Ancient Astronauts and the Annunaki: the origin of the theory in Zecharia Sitchin, what the Akkadian term actually means in Mesopotamian religion, and the evidential standards for alien contact claims. Great Flood myths: comparison of the Epic of Gilgamesh, Genesis, and other flood traditions with evidence for Persian Gulf and Black Sea inundations. Gilgamesh's tomb discovered in 2003: the Uruk excavation, the Iraq War interruption, and why no inscription links the tomb to the historical king. Hanging Gardens location: the case for Nineveh and Dur-Sharrukin, Archimedes screw technology by 700 BC, and why Babylon remains plausible. Nimrud Lens and Saturn's rings: what the 3x quartz lens can and cannot do, and the absence of telescopic astronomy in Assyrian records. Annunaki gold-mining slaves: the actual Mesopotamian creation motive of humans as laborers for the gods versus modern reinterpretations. Abraham from Ur: the biblical text, the Amorite migrations circa 2000 BCE, and the northern vs southern Ur debate. Sumerian King List long reigns: hundreds of thousands of years, symbolic numbers, and attempts at dynastic or calendrical readings. Sumerian origins: language isolate status, the Persian Gulf marsh hypothesis, and pre-flood settlement theories. Nibiru and the 12th planet: claims of hidden planets in tablets and the current state of translation work. 4.2 kiloyear event: climate data and its role in the fall of the Akkadian Empire alongside Gutian pressure. Structures beneath Eridu: the E-Abzu temple's 18 rebuild phases and what lies under ziggurat foundations. Linguistic fringe theories: proposed links between Sumerian and Turkic, Hungarian, Elamite, and Dravidian. Meluhha trade network: Indus Valley contacts, Neo-Assyrian memory loss, and claims of an Ethiopia-to-India empire. Nuclear war dark ages: why nuclear events leave unmistakable geological signaturesSumerian copper from Lake Michigan: sourcing from Cyprus and Iran versus New World contact hypotheses. Sacred marriage as genetic experiment: Ishtar priestess rituals and kingship legitimation. Ur III bala system as socialism: command economy, ration payments, and modern ideological projections. King List as doomsday calendar, Nam-Shub virus, 676 BC simulation, and Enki vs Enlil secret societies: modern fiction, numerology, and conspiracy narrativesThe purpose is not to ridicule speculation, but to show what counts as evidence in early Mesopotamian studies, where the limits of knowledge currently lie, and what kind of discovery would be required to reopen closed questions.Keywords: ancient Mesopotamia, Sumerian history, Akkadian Empire, Babylon, Assyria, Annunaki explained, ancient aliens debunked, Sumerian King List, Gilgamesh tomb 2003, Nibiru 12th planet, Hanging Gardens Nineveh, Nimrud lens, flood myth, 4.2 kiloyear event, Mesopotamia iceberg

Firas goes over the latest escalation in the Persian Gulf, Lebanon's march to civil war, and how Turkey may end up fighting Iran and Israel.

//The Wire//2300Z June 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: RESCUE EFFORTS CONTINUE IN VENEZUELA AS INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AID EFFORTS BEGIN. HORMUZ CRISIS REMAINS TENSE AS IRANIAN TARGETING OF MERCHANT SHIPPING CONTINUES.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE------International Events-Middle East: This morning another vessel was struck by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz. A total of four drones were reportedly launched during this attack, with the White House claiming that three of the four munitions were intercepted.Analyst Comment: These targeting efforts have resulted in the International Maritime Organization pausing their rescue plan to ensure the orderly evacuation of the Persian Gulf, though as of this afternoon the status of the Strait can only be described as a state of chaos. Some vessels have turned around after being warned by the Iranians, or just based on the news of other ships getting hit. Other vessels have gone "full-send" and sprinted through the Strait, hoping for the best. What has not materialized, has been a measurable surge of traffic into the Gulf. Right now, most ships are trying to get out of the warzone when they can be reasonably sure that it's safe to do so, and though there have been ships moving back-and-forth through the Strait, traffic is still nowhere near pre-war levels.-----END TEARLINE-----Analyst Comments: In Venezuela, rescue and recovery efforts continue throughout the country following the earthquakes which devastated the capital and several other major metropolitan areas. USSOUTHCOM has activated disaster response plans to allocate military resources for recovery efforts and other Central/South American nations are also working on large-scale mobilization of disaster aid. Major earthquakes in the global south tend to be vastly more serious than anywhere else due to poor construction standards, and Venezuela is no exception.On the ground, the hardest hit areas are the coastal region of La Guaira, as well as the capital of Caracas. Nearly every single structure and high-rise building at the tourist resorts along the coast north of Simon Bolivar Airport have either been completely destroyed, or heavily damaged. Hundreds of people remain trapped in the town of Carabelleda, with many large buildings collapsing with little warning for residents. Along the coast to the west, the town of Macuto suffered a similar fate, with many people still being trapped inside collapsed buildings.At this early hour, casualty counts are hard to assess, however the USGS estimates that there is a 74% chance that the casualty figure is at least 10,000 and that there's a 30% chance that the fatalities top 100,000 victims. Right now, it's very obvious that the 10,000-victim figure is the conservative assessment, certainly in terms of total victims (either injured or deceased). The United Nations estimated around 50,000 persons missing as of this afternoon. Officially, the total casualty figure is 971 confirmed fatalities, however this is not only certain to rise over the next few weeks, but new casualties are also extremely likely as well. Nearly all of the high-rise apartment buildings which are still technically standing are exhibiting the telltale signs of major structural compromise, such as X-shaped and stair-shaped cracking in the masonry and concrete walls. These are usually major indicators of severe structural damage, and that the risk of the building collapsing is extremely high. However, most people are still living inside these compromised structures, despite the very high likelihood that more high-rises will collapse imminently.Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Oil may dominate the headlines about the Middle East, but the real power often flows through water. Three narrow passages - the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and Bab el-Mandeb – shape how the world moves. In times of crisis, they've become chokepoints, disrupting global trade, rattling markets, and shifting the balance of power way beyond the region. In this episode, three stories from these waterways… how they've helped define the modern Middle East and, as we've seen recently with Hormuz, the economic currents that affect us all.Guests:Alex Von Tunzelmann, author of Blood and Sand: Suez, Hungary, and Eisenhower's Campaign for PeaceHarold Lee Wise, author of Inside the Danger Zone: The U.S. Military in the Persian Gulf, 1987-1988Farea Al-Muslimi, Yemen and Gulf researcher at Chatham House in LondonSupport shows like Throughline with NPR+. Sign up today at plus.npr.org.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Hey, I Spy listeners. We'll be back with a brand new season later this year, so stay tuned for more details on Season 5. In the meantime, we wanted to share the first episode of I Serve, a new podcast from FP and With Honor.  Hosted by U.K. Royal Navy veteran and celebrity chef Robert Irvine, I Serve brings listeners inside the experiences of the men and women who have served in uniform.  Each episode features a service member recounting the most dramatic and unforgettable moments of their military career—from tank battles in the Persian Gulf and urban combat in Iraq to helicopter extractions in Vietnam. If you like this episode, you can follow the show and listen to more episodes here. I Serve is a production from Foreign Policy and With Honor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility. It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London. Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened. We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility. I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction. First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lower estimates are ultimately correct. Supporting our case, at least in our view, is that energy prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks since some of these Fed forecasts were set, as markets have moved to believe not only would existing oil production resume in the Persian Gulf, but Iran could increase exports materially under its new agreement with the United States. That would greatly reduce a source of underlying inflationary pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. With inflation set to come in lower than feared, we think the Fed's most natural option will be to remain on hold this year rather than raise rates. But if the Fed's not doing anything, how exactly is that going to drive volatility? Our answer to that question lies in another thing that it's not going to be doing – providing as much information about where it thinks monetary policy is going next. Indeed, since the financial crisis, the Fed often went out of its way to give so-called forward guidance and significant detail about when and how they may change policy in the future. Proponents saw this as a way to avoid surprises and smooth the transmission of this policy, but critics saw it as limiting and potentially giving markets a false sense of certainty. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is one of these critics and has promised to give a lot less forward guidance. That lack of handholding by the Fed about what they might do next is a big change. Coupled with the potential for a smaller Fed balance sheet and big questions around the path of inflation and the impact of AI and productivity, every data point now has more potential to shift the market's thinking. My strategy colleagues think that this will lead to higher volatility in two-year interest rates, as well as more volatility in currencies. I'd also note that here in the UK, this paradox is not nearly as puzzling. Here, the Bank of England's target rate has been the same level since mid-December. But that hasn't stopped the UK two-year bond yield from trading in an over 100 basis point range. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

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