Breaking Bad Advice

Once again, the financial headlines seem to be dominated by prophecies of the immediate and tragic demise of the US Dollar. Are the rumors true? Is King Dollar dead? While we certainly wouldn't be in the camp that shouts “Long Live The King!”, we do think its death has been greatly exaggerated. In this episode, Isaac and Joel unwind the various narratives suggesting the dollar will go the way of Kodak and explain why certain economic realities present a different picture.

In this episode, Isaac and Joel examine the signs that indicate a bumpy road ahead instead of the gentle descent the Fed dreams of. From slowing consumer prices to plummeting producer prices, our leading indicators are sending distress signals louder than a foghorn in a pea-soup fog. As banks begin to tighten and the global economy trembles, it's time to face the truth: the Fed's soft-landing fantasy might just crash and burn. 

The return on investment for a college degree just isn't what it used to be. Tuition has been increasing at exorbitant rates for decades with no end in sight. At the same time, the lack of comparable wage growth over the same period has left many individuals and families relying on student loans as the only viable way of obtaining that coveted degree. Why is the cost of tuition always increasing? How should young parents or high school graduates determine whether the college route is “worth it”? What are the best vehicles for successfully navigating that journey? Well listen in to this week's podcast as Joel and Isaac reveal a roadmap to help you answer these questions and more!

Recent headlines were dominated by the failures of some large banks, both in the US and abroad. Many commentators have suggested that these banks were poorly managed, or that the Federal Reserve's rapid interest rate increase is to blame. While these factors certainly contributed, the reality is that all modern banks have much deeper problem. They only hold on to a small amount of the funds they promise clients they always have on demand. This is the magic of fractional reserve banking. In this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel discuss the foundational problem with fractional reserve banking, the role it played in leading to a chaotic run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and what this means for the banking system and the economy going forward. Is the crisis over? Or has it just begun?

With ongoing uncertainty and volatility in the global economy and markets, the Federal Reserve looks to guide the US economy into the Promise Land of a “soft-landing”. The Fed believes that by increasing short-term interest rates, they will be able to lower inflation without compromising growth. On this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel question the Fed's outlook, and point to data suggesting our destination may entail a bumpier experience. Will Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve be able to slap a band-aid on our economic wounds, or will only major surgery fix what ails this economy? Tune in to find out why the answer is the latter, and why that may not be such bad news after all!

“To know is always better, no matter what the answer might be.” Max Brooks, World War ZZombie hoards exist everywhere in the corporate world, consuming capital and destroying the bedrock foundation of a healthy economy. Unlike the movies, however, these zombies don't have matted hair with a facial expression like a feline on catnip. They often look quite healthy…on the outside. But that just makes them even more dangerous.In this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel dive into zombie corporations; what they are, how they got here, and what catalyst may finally decapitate these blood (money) thirsty companies.

As uncertainty within the global economy continues to grow, so do the inventories of major manufacturers and suppliers. On this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel discuss what they're seeing from supplier data, in a rising interest rate environment, and what it could mean for consumer prices and company earnings over the next 6 to 12 months.

With run-away energy prices in Europe as a result of conflict with Russia, the risks to a significant downturn in the global economy continue to increase. On this episode, Isaac and Joel breakdown the turmoil taking place across the globe and what it could mean for a US economy that is already on the edge.

For centuries, economies across the globe have had booms and they've had busts. As we all know, the booms are a good time and the busts, well, not so good of a time. But is this normal? Should economies have a business cycle? In this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel take a dive into the business cycle as we know it today and discuss the implications of an overly aggressive Federal Reserve, as well as a look at where we are in today's "business cycle".   

With the economy seemingly flying into very choppy conditions, the Federal Reserve is doing everything they can to fight off inflation. However, will the rising of interest rates to combat the inflation, send the economy and markets into a tailspin? Is a recession imminent? On this episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Isaac and Joel take a deeper dive into what has got us to this point, as well as what likely lies ahead. 

As prices of everyday goods seemingly only continue to increase at a rapid pace, most are calling for this inflation to be long lasting. However, a look into one of the most accurate predictors, the treasury   market, we can see that there may be a different story unfolding on inflation. While the bond market seems to be shaken, it is certainly not stirred by long-term investors. 

So, you got a certain percentage return last year on your investments. Is it good? Bad? Ok? Well, it depends. Investing is fundamentally about buying low and selling high, because that will determine your future portfolio returns. It sounds simple, but it isn't always easy. In today's podcast, we discuss the importance of both starting prices and an investor's sequence of returns. Starting prices matter, which is another way of saying that current prices heavily influence future returns. But what can be even more important are the sequence – or timing – of those returns, as they may actually determine whether your investment objectives are reached. Take a listen to learn more!

‘Tis the seasons to…pay higher prices? This year Christmas has not only brought with it a heavy dose of hot chocolate, carols, and cookies. It has included a lot of higher prices. Recently, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) informed us that prices rose by an average of almost 7% from November 2020 to November 2021 – the sharpest rise in prices in nearly 40 years! What does this BLS statistic mean? What factors are causing these price increases? Will prices continue to rise? Is all the money printing in Washington creating inflation? What is inflation, anyway? In this episode of the Breaking Bad Advice podcast, we shed light on the concept of inflation, its causes, and where it is likely to go from here. If rising prices are affecting you, and you want to have an idea of where things go from here, then tune in! Oh, and Merry Christmas!“For to us a child is born, to us a son is given; and the government shall be upon his shoulder, and his name shall be called Wonderful Counselor, Mighty God, Everlasting Father, Prince of Peace.”Isaiah 9:6

Our modern culture is surrounded by debt. Governments are accumulating debt at a record pace. Is this bad? Does this spell imminent doom for our economy? Does it even matter? In part 2, we will ask and answer these questions and more. Debt doesn't have to be a bad word. It can be used productively. But like any tool, it's misuse can lead to more harm than good. In part 1, we discussed corporate debt along with debts that many households deal with today. In part 2, we will discuss the really ugly use of debt at the federal level and what it could mean for the future.

Our modern culture is surrounded by debt. Households, businesses, and especially governments are accumulating debt at a record pace. Is this bad? Does this spell imminent doom for our economy? Does it even matter? In the next two episodes, we will ask and answer these questions and more. Debt doesn't have to be a bad word. It can be used productively. But like any tool, it's misuse can lead to more harm than good. In part 1, we will discuss corporate debt along with debts that many households deal with today. Following part 1, we discuss the really ugly use of debt at the federal level and what it could mean for the future.

In the first ever episode of Breaking Bad Advice, Joel Hooper and Isaac Halls discuss the thing that is seemingly affecting everyone, inflation. Also discussed, is the ultra-low interest rate environment that we have today and what kind of impact that is having on the economy. Plus, where do we go from here?