Podcasts about Bond market

In this episode, we will explore how abandoned 401(k) plans can quietly drain your long-term wealth and we'll talk about the simple steps you can take to track down that lost money and put it back to work.Today's Stocks & Topics: Builders FirstSource, Inc. (BLDR), Gartner, Inc. (IT), Meta Platforms, Inc. (META), Market Wrap, “The Forgotten 401(k): Are You Leaving Money on the Table?”, I-R-As, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. (WBD), The Bond Market, Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN).Our Sponsors:* Check out Gusto: https://gusto.com/investtalk* Check out Invest529: https://www.invest529.com* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Goldman Sachs is on track to notch its best performance in the global deals market in 24 years. Plus, what UK gilt markets are looking for after Friday's selloff, and how Spain's deficit is set to fall below Germany's for the first time in two decades. And, the government shutdown has posed complications for US economic data collection. Mentioned in this podcast:Goldman Sachs on brink of best M&A performance in 24 yearsUK politics as it happened — Gilts sell off on tax plan U-turnUS economic outlook obscured by shutdown-triggered data gapSpain's deficit to fall below Germany's for the first time in two decadesUK to launch first lead poisoning screening study of children after FT investigationToxic legacy: uncovering the threat of lead poisoningToday's FT News Briefing was produced by Julia Webster, Sonja Hutson, and Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Alexander Higgins. Additional help from Peter Barber. The FT's acting co-head of audio is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this week's episode of WSJ's Take On the Week, co-hosts Gunjan Banerji and Telis Demos discuss the lingering economic impact of the U.S. government shutdown and why a lack of crucial inflation and jobs data is making the outlook murky for the Federal Reserve. Next, Nvidia is set to report its third-quarter earnings this week. And Morgan Stanley estimates that only half of the roughly $3 trillion in global data center spending through 2028 could be funded by projected cash flows. So how are tech companies going to fund the rest?  Then after the break, Telis is joined by Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at wealth management and investment banking firm Janney Montgomery Scott, to explore how the AI revolution will be financed. Oracle, Meta and Google parent Alphabet have made bond offerings valued in the tens of billions. LeBas explains that the trillions needed to help fund data centers will force tech hyperscalers to issue massive new debt, potentially increasing the size of the corporate bond market by 20% a year. And he talks about whether the AI bubble could find its way into the bond market. This is WSJ's Take On the Week where co-hosts Gunjan Banerji, lead writer for Live Markets, and Telis Demos, Heard on the Street's banking and money columnist, cut through the noise and dive into markets, the economy and finance—the big trades, key players and business news ahead. As we look ahead to 2026, what major economic, markets or finance question is top of mind for you? We'd love to hear from you. Email the show at takeontheweek@wsj.com. To watch the video version of this episode, visit our WSJ Podcasts YouTube channel or the video page of WSJ.com Further Reading Who Will Pay for the AI Revolution? Retirees Is the Flurry of Circular AI Deals a Win-Win—or Sign of a Bubble? Meta Finishes Jumbo Bond Sale; Yield Climbs While Stock Slides BlackRock Among Biggest Investors in Meta's Giant Data-Center Debt Deal AI Borrowing Floods Debt Markets Big Tech Is Spending More Than Ever on AI and It's Still Not Enough Oracle's $18 Billion Bond Sale Meets Strong Investor Demand For more coverage of the markets and your investments, head to WSJ.com, WSJ's Heard on The Street Column, and WSJ's Live Markets blog. Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter.  Follow Gunjan Banerji here and Telis Demos here.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US government shutdown nears an end as House approves funding deal, European carmakers and other industrial companies continue to face “devastating” chip shortages, and Scotland has been handed the same credit rating as the UK, in a boost to Edinburgh as it plans to launch an inaugural bond sale. Plus, an increasing number of wealthy Chinese people are trying to set up family offices and secure residency in the Gulf, rather than Singapore. Mentioned in this podcast:US government shutdown nears an end as House approves funding dealEurope's carmakers face ‘devastating' chip crisis as Nexperia supply crunch continuesScotland handed same credit rating as UK ahead of debut ‘kilts' saleWealthy Chinese sidestep Singapore for DubaiUS mints last penny after Trump killed coinCredit: Myles McCormickToday's FT News Briefing was produced by Lulu Smyth Victoria Craig, Sonja Hutson, and Marc Filippino. Our show was mixed by Kelly Garry. Additional help from Gavin Kallmann, Michael Lello and David da Silva. The FT's acting co-head of audio is Topher Forhecz. The show's theme music is by Metaphor Music.Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

When veteran macro analyst Luke Gromen joins Jim Iuorio and Bobby Iaccino on Futures Edge, you know it's going to get real. From China's dominance in rare earths to the Fed's quiet monetary pivots, Luke breaks down why the U.S. financial system is at a breaking point — and what assets (like gold and Bitcoin) might actually survive it.In this episode, - Is America “screwed”?- Why the bond market's days are numbered- How decades of offshoring reshaped the middle class- The silent war between Treasury policy and real assets- Bitcoin vs. Gold: Which wins in the next liquidity cycle?This is one of the most insightful macro conversations you'll hear this year — equal parts sobering and sharp.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction and Context of the China Trade Deal01:52 The Impact of China on the U.S. Economy04:37 Quantitative Easing and Its Implications07:27 Bitcoin vs. Gold: A Comparative Analysis11:18 The Future of Gold and Bitcoin in Investment Portfolios14:23 Political Implications for Bitcoin and Gold18:15 Risks and Challenges Facing Bitcoin26:10 Crypto Community and Political Influence27:27 Tech Stocks and China Ownership28:05 US-China Trade Relations and Tech Stocks31:42 Gold and Bitcoin as Safe Havens34:11 AI and the Tech Bubble40:57 Future of the Federal Reserve43:30 Impact of AI on Employment and EconomyFollow along on social media: Twitter: https://x.com/bob_iaccinoTwitter: https://x.com/jimiuorioLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/bob-iaccino/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-iuorio/Newsletter: http://theunfilteredinvestor.com/

The bond market plays a crucial role in shaping government spending decisions - but how much power does it really have? With a Budget around the corner, are investors or Rachel Reeves setting the limits on fiscal policy?In this episode, we unpack how the government borrows, why it's so expensive right now, and what “fiscal credibility” really means. Joining Helen are Jack Meaning, Chief Economist at Barclays, and Ben Zaranko, IFS, to discuss the state of the bond market, the lessons from the Liz Truss era, and what investors will be watching for in the 2025 Budget.Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membershipFind out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts-explainers-and-calculators/podcasts Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week Nick talks to Jeff ChatfieldJeff Chatfield is the CEO of Avation, a publicly listed aircraft leasing company with a global portfolio of commercial and regional aircraft. He has over two decades of experience in the aviation finance industry, leading the company through multiple bond issues and strategic fleet expansions. Known for his pragmatic approach to capital management, Chatfield has built Aviation into one of the few small-scale lessors capable of issuing public bonds. Based between Singapore and London, he is recognised for his clear, data-driven insights into market trends and aircraft investment strategy.In this episode Nick and Jeff discuss the company's recent US$300 million bond issue and improved credit ratings from major agencies, marking a significant step forward since its earlier, lower-rated bonds. Jeff discusses how the refinancing provides long-term stability, enabling the company to continue its growth trajectory over the next five and a half years. He explains how the upgraded ratings reflect Aviation's maturity and scale in a market where even US$20 billion is now considered small, while also noting the flexibility and strategic value of bonds for managing capital efficiently.The discussion moves to fleet strategy, including the extended lease of a wide-body A330 to EVA Air and the company's ongoing focus on narrow-body aircraft such as A320s and ATRs. Chatfield highlights the global demand for aircraft driven by replacement cycles and rising air travel in emerging economies such as India and China. He emphasises Aviation's valuable order book and purchase rights, which position the company strongly amid limited aircraft supply.Jeff's Book Choice was:The Thursday Murder Club by Richard OsmanThis content is issued by Zeus Capital Limited (“Zeus”) (Incorporated in England & Wales No. 4417845), which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) for designated investment business, (Reg No. 224621) and is a member firm of the London Stock Exchange. This content is for information purposes only and neither the information contained, nor the opinions expressed within, constitute or are to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities or other instruments mentioned in it. Zeus shall not be liable for any direct or indirect damages, including lost profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material. This material is for the use of intended recipients only.

In lieu of data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Liz Ann Sonders and Kathy Jones discuss the latest jobs report from ADP. Liz Ann addresses some recent yips in the equity market related to earnings season, and Kathy speculates on what the latest economic data means for the Fed. They also analyze the shift towards sustainable investments and away from "zombie" companies, reflecting market churn and rotation.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.Small-cap investments are subject to greater volatility than those in other asset categories.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1125-690G) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Send us a text◆ Why Europe's corporate bond market is on a roll ◆ Reverse Yankees, hot hybrids and huge size with more to come ◆ Europe's stock exchanges' attempts to drum up more IPOsMarket participants had expected this week to be a busy one for euro and sterling investment grade corporate bond issuance. But the volume of business that was done exceeded all expectations. With jumbo deals from the likes of Alphabet to successful offerings from less common credits like Brisbane Airport, benchmark issuance this week was almost four times the volume of the weekly average for the rest of this year. We examined why and discussed the factors that will keep the deal spree going deep into November.Within that sector were also some notable hybrid deals in euros for US companies. We inspected these and divulged what is driving this market.We also looked into what different European stock exchanges, and their regulators, are doing to boost not just the supply of public stock listings but also the demand.

ProShares' Simeon Hyman says the bond market's unexpected reaction to the Fed's rate cut is a 20-year anomaly. Despite this, Hyman remains optimistic about the equity market, citing strong earnings growth and a potential broadening of the rally. He advises investors to consider equity income strategies that can provide a buffer against market volatility without sacrificing upside potential. Hyman also addresses concerns about an A.I. bubble.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Send us a text◆ Pause clauses could add to disaster arsenal ◆ KfW CEO Stefan Wintels on bond digitisation ◆ What ESG backlash? Banks ramp up green bond issuanceAs Hurricane Melissa ripped through the Carribbean this week, the bond market had a part to play in helping Jamaica fund its recovery from the storm. That came in the form of a catastrophe bond, which we explain in detail, but we also discuss how sovereign debt could be tweaked in future to help stricken countries get by.German promotional bank and leading bond issuer (not to mention recent GlobalCapital Podcast sponsor) KfW is an important player in the European economy and in global capital markets. Its CEO, Stefan Wintels, joined us to discuss the bank's role in the German economy as the country ramps up infrastructure and defence spending, Germany's green transition, and the digitisation of the bond market.We also delved into why Europe's banks have recently boosted their issuance of green and other labelled bonds.

In today's episode, we're honored to have Bill Addiss, a bond market veteran with over 40 years of trading experience, breaking down the most important developments in the bond world.

Andy Burnham recently said that the government is ‘in hock to the bond markets', and the political turbulence of the past few years, not least the downfall of Liz Truss following her ‘mini-budget', would seem to back this up. But the bond markets are only part of the picture: the actions of the Bank of England and the fiscal rules a government sets for itself also play significant roles in the decisions a chancellor can make. In this episode James is joined by former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane and Daniela Gabor, professor of economics at SOAS, to consider why governments are so afraid of ‘bond vigilantes' and the increasing influence of central banks on policy since the financial crisis of 2008. Should the Bank of England remain independent? And what room for manoeuvre does Rachel Reeves have in her budget next month? Read more on politics in the LRB: ⁠https://lrb.me/lrbpolitics⁠ From the LRB Subscribe to the LRB: ⁠⁠https://lrb.me/subslrbpod Close Readings podcast: ⁠https://lrb.me/crlrbpod⁠ LRB Audiobooks: ⁠https://lrb.me/audiobookslrbpod⁠ Bags, binders and more at the LRB Store: ⁠https://lrb.me/storelrbpod⁠ Get in touch: podcasts@lrb.co.uk

Are bonds boring? That's their reputation—and it's a big part of why investors embrace them.But Steve Laippley, global co-head of iShares fixed-income ETFs at BlackRock, thinks there's also a lot more excitement to bonds than we give them credit for.In this episode, Steve talks with Ben and Julie about:ETFs' role in transforming investor access to bondsThe value of bond ETFs in providing liquidity, transparency, and price discoveryHow fixed-income ETFs fared during the covid-19 market turmoilRecent innovations in the fixed-income spaceCatch up on previous episodes: https://www.morningstar.com/views/podcasts/big-picture-in-practice Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

HEADLINES:♦ Snoonu Founder Backs Mamdani After Criticism for Eating with Hands♦ Abu Dhabi-Based G42 Denies US Claims of Links to Chinese Missiles ♦ UAE Opens Government Sukuk Investments to Individuals for the First Time♦ Jordan Partners With Amjad Masad's Replit to Launch “Siraj,” an AI Learning Assistant Newsletter: https://aug.us/4jqModrWhatsApp: https://aug.us/40FdYLUInstagram: https://aug.us/4ihltzQTiktok: https://aug.us/4lnV0D8Smashi Business Show (Mon-Friday): https://aug.us/3BTU2MY

This week, Collin Martin sits in for Liz Ann Sonders. Kathy Jones and Collin discuss the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut. They analyze the current state of the credit markets, particularly focusing on recent defaults and the implications for high-yield bonds. The discussion also covers the demand dynamics in private-versus-public credit markets and the potential risks associated with high-yield investments. Finally, they look ahead to upcoming economic indicators and the challenges posed by a lack of data.On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting. If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.Important DisclosuresThis material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.Past performance is no guarantee of future results.Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. Lower rated securities are subject to greater credit risk, default risk, and liquidity risk.High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality (junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer's continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.Investing in alternative investments is speculative, not suitable for all clients, and generally intended for experienced and sophisticated investors who are willing and able to bear the high economic risks of the investment. Investors should obtain and carefully read the related prospectus or offering memorandum, which will contain the information needed to help evaluate the potential investment and provide important disclosures regarding risks, fees and expenses.Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.All names and market data shown above are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. Bloomberg US Corporate High-Yield Bond Index- Measures the performance of the US Dollar-Denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody's, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Bonds from issuers with an emerging markets country of risk, based on Bloomberg EM country definition, are excluded. It is a market-value weighted index.Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.The policy analysis provided by the Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.(1025-02S5) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The A.M. Update delivers a Friday five-pack of stories, including John Bolton's indictment for mishandling classified documents and Mitch McConnell's concerning fall in the Capitol. Jay Jones apologizes for vile texts in Virginia's AG race, while Zohran Mamdani shames Andrew Cuomo in NYC's mayoral debate.   John Bolton, classified documents, Mitch McConnell, Jay Jones, Virginia AG race, Zohran Mamdani, Andrew Cuomo, NYC mayoral race, AOC, Chuck Schumer, economy, bond markets, Apple podcast issues, Kamala Harris book tour, Mark Driscoll, Adam Steen

In politically unstable times, the whims and worries of the global bond market are having a huge impact on what action governments around the world can take. So who are these people trading in government debt? And how did they get the power to leave so many governments so shaken and stirred?This podcast was brought to you thanks to the support of readers of The Times and The Sunday Times. Subscribe today: http://thetimes.com/thestoryGuest: Mehreen Khan, Economics Editor, The Times.Host: Luke Jones.Producer: Shabnam Grewal.Read more: IMF warns soaring debt levels threaten financial stabilityWhy bond markets rule the world (and give Rachel Reeves a lifeline)UK to have highest inflation rate of major economies, IMF saysClips: Bloombergtv, Eurodollar University, Stone X, Bloomberg Podcasts, Al Jazeera English, CNBC International Live.Photo: Getty Images.Get in touch: thestory@thetimes.com Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What makes capitalism the most successful wealth-building system in history?  Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore how economic freedom, private ownership, and innovation incentives have lifted billions out of poverty and created unmatched prosperity. Why do societies that embrace free markets and entrepreneurship tend to enjoy higher standards of living, longer lifespans, and greater personal happiness? Lance & Michael examine the misconceptions surrounding capitalism—why critics often overlook the power of voluntary exchange and how wealth creation benefits everyone over time. 0:19 - Earnings Season is Underway w 75% Beat Rates 4:49 - Markets Maintain Bullish Trend w Lackluster Conviction 8:23 - The Itch to Twitch w Royalty-free Music 10:04 - The Fed Moves Forward - Net Impact to Bond Market 13:58 - There is No More Liquidity - Effects in Crypto Realm 17:03 - The Danger of Buying Crypto on Margin 19:57 - Leverage Works Worse in Reverse 24:04 - When the Markets Break 29:59 - Capitalism vs Socialism - the path to prosperity 31:49 - Quantifying Capitalism - The Economic Freedom Index 35:22 - Capitalism is Not an Equalization System 38:23 - The Global Decline of Economic Freedom 39:32 - Does Wealth Buy Happiness? 40:58 - Defining the "American Dream" 43:16 - Why Businesses Fail 44:51 - The Savanna Bananas 46:57 - Capitalism Is Not Fair

In this compilation program, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero field a variety of finance and investment questions from callers across the United States and around the World.Today's Stocks & Topics: Strategy for a Potential Recession, Silver, I-R-A Rollover, Sitting on Cash, Earnings Forecast, Pros and Cons of 351 Exchange, Short-Term Rental Market, Cash Balance Plan, Retirement Saving Plans, How to Invest in the Bond Market, Dividend Reinvestment Plan, Retirement Accounts, Gains and Taxes, Financial Ratios.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/INVEST* Check out Gusto: https://gusto.com/investtalk* Check out Progressive: https://www.progressive.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Simone Bruno, Associate Director, Data Analyst, Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, summarises the recenty released ICMA European Secondary Bond Market Data Report, covering sovereign bonds

Andy Hill, Co-Head of Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, discusses bond market axe distribution standards.

Natalie Westerbarkey, Co-Head of Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, explores lessons from the EU consultation on building integrated bond markets and summarises ICMA's vision.

Natalie Westerbarkey, Co-Head of Market Practice and Regulatory Policy, talks through ICMA's bond market policy mind map & ecosystem.

Eric and Matt break down a strong third quarter that saw the S&P 500 climb 10%, leaving Liberation Day's tariff chaos behind. They explore the growing divide between wealthy asset owners feeling great and everyone else struggling with inflation, while examining why bonds are pricing in Fed rate cuts even as stocks surge. The conversation turns to the private markets boom and whether opening up private equity to retail 401(k) investors is a good idea or a disaster waiting to happen. Eric shares why AI companies are burning massive amounts of capital with unclear returns, yet may be impossible to bet against if they build a cult-like following. They note that credit markets still look healthy despite late-cycle warning signs, making this moment particularly unusual. A straightforward look at where we are in this cycle and what actually matters as we head into year-end. For the full show notes, transcript, and links to the best content to learn more, check out the episode page HERE. ----- Making Markets is a property of Colossus, LLC. For more episodes of Making Markets, visit joincolossus.com/episodes. Stay up to date on all our podcasts by signing up to Colossus Weekly, our quick dive every Sunday highlighting the top business and investing concepts from our podcasts and the best of what we read that week. Sign up here. Follow us on Twitter: @makingmkts | @ericgoldenx Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com). Show Notes (00:00:00) Welcome to Making Markets (00:01:30) Economic Structures and Consumer Demand (00:04:34) Tariffs and Their Impact on the Economy (00:05:10) Travel and Leisure Sector Post-COVID (00:07:44) Bond Market and Federal Reserve Actions (00:16:34) Private Equity and Market Trends (00:22:24) Retirement Funds and 401(k) Investments (00:25:04) Concerns Over New Investment Vehicles (00:26:51) Debates on Private and Public Assets (00:30:14) Religious Investor Bases and Market Dynamics (00:31:54) AI and Its Impact on Markets (00:41:46) Social Media and Market Sentiment (00:44:04) Concluding Thoughts on Markets and Society Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Investors' exuberance is fueling this year's stock rally, but will key economic risks dampen the market's mood? The current bull run has lifted stocks from their springtime lows to higher levels in autumn. The artificial intelligence boom is one of the big factors driving it. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is dealing with the challenging situation of balancing the weakening job market and stubborn inflation. The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in the third quarter, but the path forward from here is less certain. Morningstar Inc Senior Markets Reporter Sarah Hansen discusses seven key market factors you should watch in Q4 2025.Nvidia's investment of up to $100 billion in ChatGPT creator OpenAI could shatter records. The big bet is helping feed two simple narratives about the AI era, according to Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe. First, there's too much investment in the technology, and booms tend to lead to busts. Second, AI has changed the rules of investing and returns. Kemp cautions investors to remember that there are a wide range of possible outcomes than these easy stories.  On this episode:You examine the highs and lows during each quarter and write about it. What do you think are the biggest takeaways from Q3? Stocks are climbing higher despite a lot of risks. What signals is the market ignoring, and could it be at its own peril? The AI boom is driving what's going on in the market. Mega-cap tech companies are making huge investments. Where's the money going, and how long is this level of spending expected to continue? The hot IPO market has benefited from AI. Some of the most successful IPOs this year involved the industry. Can you describe this revival? The first interest rate cut of 2025 is in the books. The Federal Reserve pointed to the softening job market as one reason for the move. What are strategists telling you as the markets await the Fed's next move? Inflation is still not tamed and hovering above the Fed's 2% target. There are expectations that tariffs could raise prices for a while. What are the outlooks from Morningstar and other strategists? As the Fed cuts rates, short-term yields will come down. What about the rest of the bond market? Where do people see the risks? The federal funding fight is continuing in Washington, D.C. Let's timestamp this moment. It's Tuesday, Sept. 30. The US government would shut down on Oct. 1 if there's not an agreement. How does uncertainty like this affect the markets, and what should investors think? Earnings season is coming up in a couple weeks. What is your team watching for? What's the takeaway for investors as we enter Q4?We talked on last week's Investing Insights about inflation. The Federal Reserve's preferred tracker showed inflation slightly ticked up in August as forecasters expected. It also revealed consumer spending rose. What do you think that's signaling about the US economy? In this week's Markets Brief column, you highlighted Nvidia's potentially record-breaking investment. The chipmaker announced it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. How should investors think about this deal?New economic data is due out this week. What are you tracking for next week's Markets Brief? Read about topics from this episode.  13 Charts on Q3's Tech-Driven Stock Rally Will the AI Boom in Semiconductor Stocks Continue? What Investors Need to Know About the Steepening Yield Curve The Fed's ‘Difficult Situation': Reading Between the Lines of the September Dot Plot Forecasts for August PCE Report Shows Some Cooling, but Tariff Impacts Persist What Investors Need to Know About a US Government Shutdown Markets Brief: Nvidia's AI Spending Spree Raises Boom and Bust Fears  What to watch from Morningstar. Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here's How to Spot Dividend Traps Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates?What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETFInvesting in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors Read what our team is writing.Sarah HansenDan KempIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

It might be tempting to buy dividend stocks with the highest yields, but not all dividend payers are safe. Those big payouts could be signaling that a company's fundamentals are cracking. Looming financial risks could wreak havoc on income-focused investors' portfolios. But there are ways to spot dividend traps. Morningstar Indexes strategist and columnist Dan Lefkovitz explains how to avoid the risks.Both healthcare and consumer defensive sectors are lagging the broader stock market this year, but for different reasons.Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, explored what's behind it in this week's Markets Brief column. He says consumer defensive stocks are falling from high valuations, while healthcare stocks are facing significant headwinds like politics and earnings growth. He reminds investors that's why it's important to understand not only what you own in your portfolio, but why you own it as well. On this episode:What is a dividend trap, and under what conditions do they tend to develop? You and your team published research on dividend traps just before Dow Chemical DOW cut its dividend in half over the summer. How does your research explain what happened with Dow? Other well-known brands have also slashed their dividend payouts since 2020. The list includes Shell, Walgreens, and Intel. What warning signs were these companies flashing before their cuts? You have written about how income-focused investors can avoid dividend traps. Let's start with step number one on how to spot them. What is the payout ratio, and what does it tell us about a company's health?The second step focuses on a company's durable competitive advantage or economic moat. Can you describe what that reveals?Your team weeds out dividend payers using a third step that relies on Distance to Default. How does that work, and what did you all find out? How can investors protect their dividend income from risks? Would portfolio diversification help? What's the key takeaway to spot dividend traps?We discussed on last week's Investing Insights that you would focus on the market moves following the Fed's quarter-point cut. How have the US dollar and bond prices reacted?  In this week's Markets Brief column, you zoomed in on the lagging performance of healthcare and consumer defensive stocks. What's important for investors to know?  New data on inflation from the Fed's preferred tracker is set to come out Friday, September 26th. Inflation is hovering above the Fed's 2% target. What are the markets' expectations, and what would a surprise in the data mean for the near future? Read about topics from this episode.  Not All Dividend Stocks Are Safe. Here's How to Avoid Dividend Traps What Investors Can Learn from Dow's 50% Dividend Cut 7 Things You May Not Know About Dividends The 10 Best Dividend Stocks Does Dividend Investing Still Work? Construction Rules for the Morningstar Indexes Distance to Default Markets Brief: AI Investment is Massive in a Cyclical Industry. Will This Time Be Different? What to watch from Morningstar. Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates? What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETFInvesting in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold InvestorsDo Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue? Read what our team is writing.Dan Lefkovitz Dan KempIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Gene Tunny and John Humphreys unpack the economic troubles brewing in the UK, France, and the US—rising debt, social unrest, inflation, and faltering productivity. They explore why bond markets are sounding alarms, why governments are struggling to respond, and what this all means for Australia. The episode draws urgent lessons from these fiscal failures, with stark warnings for what lies ahead if policy inertia continues. Among other issues, they discuss Gary Stevenson's proposal for a wealth tax in the UK. Gene would love to hear your thoughts on this episode. You can email him via contact@economicsexplored.com.This episode was recorded on Thursday, 18 September 2025.  TimestampsEconomic Challenges in Major Western Economies (0:00)Discussion on UK Economic Turmoil (2:31)Impact of Bond Market on UK Government (7:35)Comparison with France and the US (16:43)Lessons for Australia (35:29)Impact of Political Polarisation (43:55)Potential Solutions and Challenges (44:15)Global Economic Repercussions (44:49)Conclusion and Final Thoughts (46:24)TakeawaysThe UK's fiscal crisis is deepening with stalled per capita GDP, rising debt, and bond markets losing confidence.France is politically paralysed amid fiscal deficits and bond yields now surpassing Italy's—an unprecedented shift.The US faces stagflation risks, with inflation ticking back up and concerns about economic growth.Productivity stagnation is the root problem across Western economies, fueling deficits and weakening growth.Australia must learn from others' mistakes, avoiding unsustainable spending and instead boosting productivity.Links relevant to the conversationSlides with charts referred to this episode:https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZMkunGxYj57TnCajOxvMcTEh0fQj0y5L/view?usp=sharingAustralian Taxpayers' Alliance Livestream of 18 September 2025:https://www.youtube.com/live/8YxnRT_YD50?si=_A1udQmCag3dMtyCLumo Coffee promotion10% of Lumo Coffee's Seriously Healthy Organic Coffee.Website: https://www.lumocoffee.com/10EXPLOREDPromo code: 10EXPLORED 

China's yield curve is being reshaped in a way that has created confusion across the spectrum. Even policymakers at the PBOC are talking about the need to do something. However, market behavior is consistent with what we're seeing around the rest of the world and how it all relates to China finding a way out of its mess and hitting upon a real recovery. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------If you want to see what you've been missing - and it's A LOT - then join us at Eurodollar University. Our memberships have got you covered where it comes to mastering monetary mechanics. You won't find this anywhere else. https://www.eurodollar.university/memberships---------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg China Bond Slump Fuels Speculation PBOC Will Resume Debt Buyinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/china-bond-slump-fuels-speculation-pboc-will-resume-debt-buyingReuters Chinese money flows into bonds even as central bank warns of riskshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinese-money-flows-into-bonds-even-central-bank-warns-risks-2024-06-27/https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Discord Channel: https://discord.gg/pqKsMKp6SA The Federal Reserve has just cut rates, and the bond market is buzzing. On today's show, I'm joined by Bill Addiss — a veteran with 40+ years in the bond markets — to break down exactly what this decision means for Treasuries, yields, and fixed-income investors. We'll discuss:

For the first time ever, French bond spreads are higher than those seen in Italy (both compared to Germany). This isn't just about "fiscal consolidation" worries and France's government budget, the real issue behind everything is economic differentials. Those need to be turned around and soon else France risks being the new, well, Italy. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------NYT French Government Collapses, Again, Deepening Paralysishttps://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/world/europe/france-vote-government-collapse.htmlCNBC France's Macron names loyalist Lecornu as new prime ministerhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/09/france-macron-names-lecornu-new-prime-minister.htmlCNBC France's borrowing costs rise after Fitch downgrade — and there could be more bad news aheadhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/15/frances-borrowing-costs-rise-after-fitch-downgrade-.htmlBloomberg French Borrowing Costs Top Italy's in Historic Market Shifthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/french-borrowing-costs-top-italy-s-in-historic-market-shifthttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Macro analyst Luke Gromen (FFTT) returns to Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell to explain why markets keep rising while Main Street struggles and why the “rules-based global order” is already over. We dig into: Whether the Fed will cut rates and the market reaction BRICS and the push toward gold settlement Is U.S. strategy to use stablecoins/Bitcoin to pay U.S. debt?  Rare-earth mineral chokepoints and China's leverage Fourth turning and political assassinations What it all means for Bitcoin, gold, bonds, and stocks ---- Coin Stories is powered by Gemini. Invest as you spend with the Gemini Credit Card. Sign up today to earn a $200 intro Bitcoin bonus. The Gemini Credit Card is issued by WebBank. See website for rates & fees. 10% back at golf courses is available until 9/30/2025 on up to $250 in spend per month. Learn more at https://www.gemini.com/natalie  ---- Coin Stories is powered by Bitwise. Bitwise has over $10B in client assets, 32 investment products, and a team of 100+ employees across the U.S. and Europe, all solely focused on Bitcoin and digital assets since 2017. Learn more at https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com  ---- Bitdeer Technologies Group ($BTDR) is a global leader in Bitcoin mining and high-performance computing for AI, with operations spanning four continents. Learn more at https://www.bitdeer.com ---- Natalie's Bitcoin Product and Event Links: For easy, low-cost, instant Bitcoin payments, I use Speed Lightning Wallet. Play Bitcoin trivia and win up to 1 million sats! Download and use promo code COINSTORIES10 for 5,000 free sats: https://www.speed.app/coinstories  Block's Bitkey Cold Storage Wallet was named to TIME's prestigious Best Inventions of 2024 in the category of Privacy & Security. Get 20% off using code STORIES at https://bitkey.world   Master your Bitcoin self-custody with 1-on-1 help and gain peace of mind with the help of The Bitcoin Way: https://www.thebitcoinway.com/natalie  Genius Group (NYSE: $GNS) is building a 10,000 BTC treasury and educating the world through the Genius Academy. Check out *free* courses from Saifedean Ammous and myself at https://www.geniusacademy.ai.  Earn passive Bitcoin income with industry-leading uptime, renewable energy, ideal climate, expert support, and one month of free hosting when you join Abundant Mines at https://www.abundantmines.com/natalie  Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Protect yourself from SIM Swaps that can hack your accounts and steal your Bitcoin. Join America's most secure mobile service, trusted by CEOs, VIPs and top corporations: https://www.efani.com/natalie   Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research's Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and Head of Macro Strategy Kristian Kerr recap another strong week for the stock market, discuss the implications of rising global bond yields, and preview this week's much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting. Tracking: #797148

Trader Masaya Okoshi and host Amar Reganti talk about the evolution and mechanics of bond market trading.2:55 – Bond trading, then and now5:40 – Price transparency vs ability to move risk7:30 – What is portfolio trading?9:35 – Hedging with credit ETFs11:05 – Technology: Does the limit exist?15:10 – Long-only vs long-short worlds Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this week's episode of the Coin Stories News Block powered exclusively by Ledn, we cover these major headlines related to Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and global finance: Fed under fire: Markets see a 96% chance of a .25% rate cut as Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pile pressure on Powell. Housing fragility exposed: FHA quietly props up 1.2M mortgages -- echoes of the 2008 crisis? Tether's U.S. play: The world's largest stablecoin launches a fully regulated dollar-backed token under the new GENIUS Act. Crypto IPO boom: Gemini and Figure soar in debut, while Nasdaq itself backs the Winklevoss twins. A personal note: Reflections on the tragic assassination of Charlie Kirk,and why money corruption drives deeper social division. --- The News Block is powered exclusively by Ledn – the global leader in Bitcoin-backed loans, issuing over $9 billion in loans since 2018, and they were the first to offer proof of reserves. With Ledn, you get custody loans, no credit checks, no monthly payments, and more. My followers get .25% off their first loan. Learn more at www.ledn.io/natalie  ---- Read every story in the News Block with visuals and charts! Join our mailing list and subscribe to our free Bitcoin newsletter: https://thenewsblock.substack.com  ---- References mentioned in the episode: Wall Street Journal Article on Mortgage Borrowers Payrolls Negative Revision Largest on Record Bessent's Tweet on Fed Driving Wealth Inequality Scott Bessent Op-Ed on Fed Independence Figure Technologies Enjoys Successful IPO Figure IPO Boosts Valuation to $7.6 Billion Gemini Soars in Latest IPO Market Win Nasdaq Invests $50 Million in Gemini Winklevoss-led Gemini Raises $425 Million in IPO Tether Slides on Company's Massive Growth  Bo Hines Appointed Head of Tether's U.S. Arm Tether Unveils New U.S.-Regulated USD Stablecoin Tether Announces the Launch of USAT Russian Advisor Talks About Gold & Crypto Putin's Advisor Warns of Crypto & Gold Conspiracy Bitwise CEO Tweets on $7.3T Money Market Funds $7.3 Trillion Cash Pile Could Fuel Bitcoin Rally  ---- Upcoming Events: Bitcoin 2026 will be here before you know it. Get 10% off Early Bird passes using the code HODL: https://tickets.b.tc/event/bitcoin-2026?promoCodeTask=apply&promoCodeInput=  Your Bitcoin oasis awaits at Camp Nakamoto: A retreat for Bitcoiners, by Bitcoiners. Code HODL for discounted passes: https://massadoptionbtc.ticketspice.com/camp-nakamoto      ---- This podcast is for educational purposes and should not be construed as official investment advice. ---- VALUE FOR VALUE — SUPPORT NATALIE'S SHOWS Strike ID https://strike.me/coinstoriesnat/ Cash App $CoinStories #money #Bitcoin #investing

In this compilation program, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero field a variety of finance and investment questions from callers across the United States and around the World.Today's Stocks & Topics: Strategy for a Potential Recession, Silver, I-R-A Rollover, Sitting on Cash, Earnings Forecast, Pros and Cons of 351 Exchange, Short-Term Rental Market, Cash Balance Plan, Retirement Saving Plans, How to Invest in the Bond Market, Dividend Reinvestment Plan, Retirement Accounts, Gains and Taxes, Financial Ratios.Our Sponsors:* Check out Anthropic: https://claude.ai/INVEST* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com* Check out Upwork: https://upwork.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Daily Market Update: Record Closes and Economic Revisions In this episode of Dividend Cafe, Brian Szytel discusses the record-high closes on the DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq, noting a significant boost in the last 30 minutes of trading. He reviews year-to-date market performance and the recent revision in non-farm payroll numbers, which saw a considerable downward adjustment. The episode also covers the unusual yield curve movements, expectations for potential Fed rate cuts, and upcoming economic indicators such as the PPI and CPI numbers. Additionally, small business optimism has ticked up, reflecting a more confident outlook. The bond market's reaction, particularly the decline in 10-year yields, is analyzed, indicating potential continued strength in long-duration investments. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 01:02 Employment Data and Revisions 02:24 Yield Curve and Interest Rates 03:20 Economic Indicators and Small Business Sentiment 03:59 Bond Market and Long Duration Investments 04:40 Conclusion and Upcoming Events Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In the latest Market Signals podcast, LPL Research's Chief Equity Strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder and Chief Fixed Income Strategist Lawrence Gillum share their updated thoughts on the bond market following Friday's soft jobs report, make a case that the current bull market still has legs, and preview the week ahead that includes key inflation data. Tracking: #793939

Global bond markets are under siege and CRE is caught in the crossfire.UK 30-year gilt yields surged to their highest level since 1998, and volatility in U.S. Treasuries has repeatedly brushed them against 5%.For commercial real estate, that means more expensive debt, climbing cap rates and global investors second-guessing allocations.Christopher Stanley, banking industry practice lead at Moody's Analytics, said the tightness of the spread shows increased competition in the market, but the entire yield curve has moved up considerably.That's going to hit net operating income, and Stanley said staying on top of liquidity and forecasting out volatility all the way through the life cycle of the project have become crucial.“When we're in a nervous economy like we're in right now, everyone immediately jumps to what kind of credit problems are there going to be,” Stanley said on the show. “Credit is a part of it, but we're really playing a balance sheet management game.”

John Batchelor 09-03 segment 9.mp3 Guest: Brett Arends of Market Watch (Return on Investment). Bond Market Anxiety and Federal Reserve Pressures Brett Arends explains the bond market's current unhappiness stems from unsustainable national debt and uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs. He clarifies that the Fedcontrols short-term rates, while the bond market sets long-term rates. Arends warns that Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut short-term rates could paradoxically cause long-term rates, including mortgage rates, to rise, hurting the economy and exacerbating market nervousness. He emphasizes the need for fiscal sustainability. 1947 DEMOCRACY SQUARE

John Batchelor 09-03 segment 10.mp3 Guest: Brett Arends of Market Watch. Addressing Bond Market Turmoil Brett Arends explains that the troubled bond market stems from unsustainable national debt and recent court rulings questioning President Trump's tariffs. He advises Donald Trump to support Federal Reserve independence, abandon attacks on Jerome Powell and Lisa Cook, and work with Congress on tariffs to ensure fiscal sustainability and calm market anxieties. Arends notes that gold's all-time high reflects a lack of market confidence. PEKING UNIVERSITY

Thierry Wizman sees a “generally lackluster labor market,” reacting to the ADP report this morning and previewing tomorrow's jobs report. He argues that the Fed will probably still cut rates this month, anticipating the unemployment rate ticking higher as hiring slows. “There's an underlying tone of inflation” that hasn't been reflected in CPI data yet, Thierry adds. He thinks the Fed will approach with caution, cutting only 25 basis points rather than the 50 some hope for. If tariffs are reversed, Thierry expects unease in the bond market.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this compilation program, Justin Klein and Luke Guerrero field a variety of finance and investment questions from callers across the United States and around the World.Today's Stocks & Topics: Strategy for a Potential Recession, Silver, I-R-A Rollover, Sitting on Cash, Earnings Forecast, Pros and Cons of 351 Exchange, Short-Term Rental Market, Cash Balance Plan, Retirement Saving Plans, How to Invest in the Bond Market, Dividend Reinvestment Plan, Retirement Accounts, Gains and Taxes, Financial Ratios.Our Sponsors:* Check out Avocado Green Mattress: https://www.avocadogreenmattress.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code INVEST for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.com* Check out Upwork: https://upwork.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Two-year Treasury yields set a new almost-year low, falling below their prior April chaos lows. The yield curve is undergoing a profound reshaping that explains a lot more than Jay Powell's Jackson Hole performance. It also perfectly indicates what long-run interest rates are also doing as well as likely to do moving forward.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Continuing the summer series, The Bid brings back some of the best episodes from the last year. Oscar's final pick is unpacking the meaning and the power of capital markets.Capital markets are a powerful force in the global financial landscape. These markets connect long-term savings with productive uses of capital. Driving innovation, growth and job creation. But what are capital markets and how will they contribute to long-term global economic development?Samara Cohen, chief Investment Officer of ETF and Index Investments at BlackRock joins host Oscar Pulido to explore the key differences in capital market growth strategies between mature and emerging markets, how capital markets help in mobilizing investment, and the role of regulatory frameworks and market innovation in ensuring their effective functioning.Sources: “The Virtuous Cycle: The Global Potential Of Capital Markets” BlackRock, 2025Original episode aired May 9th 2025

Is the 60/40 portfolio living up to its reputation of resilience this year? The merit of a classic portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has been a matter of debate in recent years. A diversified 60/40 strategy failed to protect investors in 2022's broad market crash—in fact, an all-stock portfolio would have held up better. However, a historical deep dive from Morningstar concluded that the tried-and-true approach lessened the pain in almost all of the worst market crashes in 150 years better than an all-stock portfolio. Morningstar Inc Portfolio Strategist Amy Arnott discusses the 60/40 portfolio's ups and downs and its performance in 2025.On this episode:What is a 60/40 portfolio, and why is it popular? We often hear claims that the 60/40 portfolio is “dead” or obsolete. Why does it get criticized so much? Some of that criticism flared up in 2022. Why was the performance so bad for the 60/40 portfolio that year? Volatility has rocked the markets in 2025. How has the classic investment strategy done so far this year? Are there any asset classes that have performed better so far in 2025? Why? And which ones have struggled? Interest rates are sitting above 4%, but market watchers are anticipating the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September. What could that mean for the fixed-income part of the 60/40 portfolio? How do you think the 60/40 portfolio will perform over the next few years? Should people still rely on the 60/40 portfolio, or is another strategy better like the 70/30 or 50/30/20, which can be a mix of stocks, bonds, and alternatives? The tried-and-true strategy has proved its worth. So, what's the final takeaway for current retirees, future retirees, or anyone seeking less risk?Read about topics from this episode.  The 60/40 Portfolio: A 150-Year Markets Stress TestIs the 60/40 Portfolio Feeling '22?What We've Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market CrashesHow Does Your 60/40 Portfolio Allocation Compare With the Pros?Why 2025 Is the Year to Invest in International StocksWhy It's Not Too Late to Add International ExposureWhy Holding Assets Outside the US Dollar Has Paid Off in 2025How to Use Gold in Your PortfolioPortfolio Diversification Is Winning in 2025 What to watch from Morningstar. These 16 Standout Funds Are Making Big Bets. Do They Fit in Your Investment Portfolio?Market Volatility: Investors Are Seeking Safety in Gold ETFs. Is It Working?Why Bonds Belong in Your Diversified Portfolio (Even Now)Covered-Call ETFs Are Booming. But Not All Yield Is Good Read what our team is writing.Amy ArnottIvanna Hampton Follow us on social media.Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MorningstarInc/X: https://x.com/MorningstarIncInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar... LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/5161/

Market Update and PPI Data Insights - Dividend Cafe Daily Recap Host David Bahnsen fills in for Brian Szytel to deliver a daily market update. Despite some intraday movements, the market indices closed flat, with the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ showing negligible changes. The 10-year yield rose to 4.28%, driven by a surprising 0.9% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the month. Goods prices remained low, while services saw more significant movement. The episode teases a deeper analysis on inflation and related data points, set to be discussed in the weekly Dividend Cafe commentary. Additional updates include a 2% rise in oil prices and stable initial jobless claims at 224,000. 00:00 Introduction and Market Overview 00:17 Market Indices Performance 00:40 Bond Market and PPI Impact 01:58 Upcoming Dividend Cafe Insights 02:41 Additional Data Points 03:18 Conclusion and Sign-Off Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Although tariff negotiations continue, deals are being made, shifting investor focus on assessing the fallout. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen consider the ripple effects on inflation and the bond market. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Michael Zezas: Today, how are tariffs impacting the economy and what it means for bond markets? It's Wednesday, August 13th at 10:30am in New York. Michael, we've been talking about how the near-term uncertainty around tariff levels has come down. Tariff deals are, of course, still pending with some major U.S. trading partners like China; but agreements are starting to come together. And though there's lots of ways they could break over time, in the near-term, deals like the one with Europe signal that the U.S. might be happy for several months with what's been arranged. And so, the range of outcomes has shrunk. The U.S.' current effective tariff rate of 16 percent is about where we thought we'd be at year end. But that's substantially higher than the roughly 3 percent we started the year with. So, not as bad as it looked like it could have been after tariffs were announced on April 2nd, but still substantially higher. Now's the time when investors should stay away from chasing tariff headlines and guessing what the President might do next; and instead focus on assessing the impact of what's been done. With that as the backdrop, we got some relevant data yesterday, the Consumer Price Index for July. You were expecting that this would show some clear signs of tariffs pushing prices higher. Why was that? Michael Gapen: Well, we did analysis on the 2018-2019 tariff episode. So, in looking at the input-output tables, which give you an idea of how prices move through certain sectors of the economy, and applying that to the 2018 episode of tariffs – we got the result that you should see some tariff inflation in June, and then sequentially more as we move into the late summer and the early fall. So, the short answer, Mike, is a model based plus history-based exercise – that said yes, we should start seeing the effects of tariffs on those categories, where the direct effect is high. So that'd be most of your goods categories. Over time, as we move into later this year or early next year, it'll be more important to think about indirect effects, if any. Michael Zezas: Got it. So, the July CPI data that came out yesterday, then did it corroborate this view? Michael Gapen: Yes and no. So, I'm an economist, so I have to do a two-handed view on this. So yes… Michael Zezas: Always fair. Michael Gapen: Always, yes. So, yes, core goods prices rose by two-tenths on the month, in June they also rose by two-tenths. Prior to this goods' prices were largely flat with some of the big durables, items like autos being negative, right? So, we had all the give back following COVID. So, the prior trend was flat to negative. The last two months, they've shown two-tenths increases. And we've seen upward pressure on things like household furnishings, apparel. We saw a strong used car print this month, motor vehicle and repairs. So, all of that suggests that tariffs are starting to flow through. Now, we didn't – on the other hand – is we didn't get as much as we thought. New car prices were flat and maybe those price increases will be delayed until models – the 2026 models start hitting the lot. That would be September or later. And we didn't actually; I said apparel. Apparel was up stronger last month. It really wasn't up all that much this month. So, the CPI data for July corroborated the view that the inflation pass through is happening. Where I think it didn't answer the question is how much of it are we going to get and should we expect a lot of it to be front loaded? Or is this going to be a longer process? Michael Zezas: Got it. And then, does that mean that tariffs aren't having the sort of aggregate impact on the economy that many thought they would? Or is maybe the composition of that impact different? So, maybe prices aren't going up so much, but companies are managing those costs in other ways. How would you break that down? Michael Gapen: We would say, and our view is that, yes, you know, we have written down a forecast. And we used our modeling in the 2018-20 19 episode to tell us what's a reasonable forecast for how quickly and to what degree these tariffs should show up in inflation. But obviously, this has been a substantial move in tariffs. They didn't start all at once. They've come in different phases and there's a lot of lags here. So, I just think there's a wide range of potential outcomes here. So, I wouldn't conclude that tariffs are not having the effect we thought they would. I think it's way too early and would be incorrect to conclude, just [be]cause we've had relatively modest tariff pressures in June and July, inflation that we can be sanguine and say it's not a big deal and we should just move on.Michael Zezas: And even so, is it fair to say that there's still plenty of evidence that this is weighing on growth in the way you anticipated? Michael Gapen: I think so. I mean, it's clear the economy has moderated. If we kind of strip out the volatility and trade and inventories, final sales to domestic purchasers 1.5 in the first quarter. It was 1.1 in the second quarter, and a lot of that slowdown was related to spending by the consumer. And a slowdown in business spending. So that that could be a little more, maybe about policy uncertainty and not knowing exactly what to do and how to plan. But it also we think is reflected in a slowdown, in the pace of hiring. So, I would say, you got the policy uncertainty shock first. That also came through the effect of the April 2nd Liberation Day tariffs, which probably caused a freeze in hiring and spending activity for a bit. And now I would say we're moving into the part of the world where the actual increase in tariffs are going to happen. So, we'll know whether or not firms can pass these prices along or not. If they can't, we'll probably get a weaker labor market. If they can, we'll continue to see it in inflation.But Mike, let me ask you a question now. You've had all the fun. Let me turn the table. Michael Zezas: Fair enough. Michael Gapen: How much does it matter for you or your team, whether or not these tariffs are pushing prices higher? And/or delaying cuts from the Fed. How do you think about that on your side? Michael Zezas: Yeah, so this question of composition and lags is really interesting. I think though that if the end state here is as you forecast – that we'll end up with weaker growth, and as a consequence, the Fed will embark on a substantial rate cutting program. Then the direction of travel for bond yields from here is still lower. So, if that's the case, then obviously this would be a favorable backdrop for owners of U.S. treasury bonds. It's probably also good news for owners of corporate credit, but the story's a bit trickier here. If yields move lower on weaker growth, but we ultimately avoid a recession, this might be the sweet spot for corporate credit. You've got fundamental strength holding that limits credit risk, and so you get performance from all in yields declining – both the yield expressed by the risk-free rate, as well as the credit spread. But if we tipped into recession, then naturally we'd expect there to be a repricing of all risk in the market. You'd expect there to be some expression of fundamental weakness and credit spreads would widen. So, government bonds would've been a better product to own in that environment.But, of course, Michael, we have to consider alternative outcomes where yields go higher, and this would turn into a bad environment for bond returns that would appear to be most likely in the scenario where U.S. growth actually ticks higher, resetting expectations for monetary policy in a more hawkish direction.So, what do you think investors should watch for that would lead to that outcome? Is it something like an AI productivity boom or maybe something else that's not on our radar? Michael Gapen: Yeah, so I think that is something investors do have to think about; and let me frame one way to think about that – where ex-post any easing by the Fed as early as September might be retroactively viewed as a policy mistake, right? So, we can say, yes, tariffs should slow down growth and maybe that happens in the second half of this year. The Fed maybe eases rates as a pre-emptive measure or risk management approach to avoid too much weakness in the labor market. So even though the Fed is seeing firming inflation now, which it is. It could ease in September, maybe again in December [be]cause it's worried about the labor market. So maybe that's what dominates 2025. And, and like you said, perhaps in the very near term, continues to pull bond prices lower. But what if we get into 2026 and the tariff effect or the tariff drag on growth fades, and the consumer begins to accelerate. So, we don't have a recession, we just get a bit of a divot in growth and then the economy recovers. Then fiscal policy kicks in, right? We don't think the One Big, Beautiful Bill act will provide a lot of stimulus, but we could be wrong. It could kickstart animal spirits and bring forward a lot of business spending. And then maybe AI, as you said; that could be a combining factor and financial conditions would be very easy in that world, in part – given that the Fed has eased, right? So that that could be a world where, you know, growth is modest, but it's firming. Inflation that's moved up to about 3 percent or maybe a little bit higher later this year kind of stays there. And then retroactively, the problem is the Fed eased financial conditions into that and inflation's kind of stuck around 3 percent. Bond yields – at least the long end – would probably react negatively in that world. Michael Zezas: Yeah, that makes perfect sense to us. Well, Michael, thanks for taking the time to talk with me. Michael Gapen: Thanks for having me on, Mike. Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

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