Podcasts about business cycles

In this conversation, Sean and Catherine reconnect after some time apart, sharing personal updates including health concerns and vacation experiences. They delve into the current economic climate, discussing the noticeable slowdown in inquiries and leads in their industry, attributing it to uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the stock market. Their light-hearted banter is interspersed with deeper reflections on the implications of these trends for their business and the broader economy. In this conversation, Sean and Catherine discuss the challenges of managing an influx of leads in their construction business, the impact of slow inquiries on their operations, and the importance of embracing the natural cycles of business. They reflect on the need for mindfulness and strategic adjustments during slower periods, emphasizing the value of evaluating processes and maintaining a healthy outlook amidst uncertainty. In this engaging conversation, Catherine and Sean explore various topics ranging from construction tools to environmental issues and business insights. They discuss the roof snake tool, the alarming size of the Great Pacific Garbage Patch, and the Bechtel Corporation's significant role in the construction industry. The duo also delves into the realities of trash generation, landfill management, and the importance of stress management in business during uncertain times. Their light-hearted banter and insightful reflections make for an entertaining and informative discussion.

Is President Trump right about interest rates? Is Fed Chairman Jay Powell making a mistake? Forget the mainstream media talking points. Mark Thornton cuts through the noise to explore the real economic threats facing America. In this episode, Mark dissects how the Fed's monetary policies, not just Trump's tariffs, have created a dangerous Austrian Business Cycle time bomb. Will Powell's rate cuts save the day, or is a recession inevitable? Mark examines key sectors of the S&P 500 to reveal the truth and predict what's coming next.Join us May 15-17, 2025, at the Mises Institute in Auburn, Alabama, for our Revisionist History of War Conference. This is our first history conference in almost thirty years. For more details and to register, visit https://Mises.org/rhw.Be sure to follow Minor Issues at Mises.org/MinorIssues

Mentor Sessions Ep.009: Professor Peter St Onge on EconomicCycles, the Fed, and Bitcoin's FutureUnlock the secrets of economic cycles and supercharge yourBitcoin strategy with insights from Professor Peter St Onge. As an economist who navigated the dot-com bubble, Professor St Onge reveals how the Federal Reserve's policies and historical monetary collapses signal Bitcoin's rise as a hedge against fiat chaos. Explore why understanding booms, busts, and the Fed'smanipulations can protect and grow your Bitcoin stack. From tariffs to the dollar's fate, this episode dives deep into the economic forces shaping Bitcoin's path to dominance. Ready to master the monetary game? Watch now!Chapters:• 00:00:00 - Episode Introduction• 00:01:05 - From Dot-Com to Bitcoin: Professor St Onge's Journey• 00:04:29 - Austrian Economics and Early Bitcoin Skepticism• 00:08:28 - Decoding the Business Cycle• 00:11:27 - Bitcoin: Momentum Asset or Safe Haven?• 00:15:18 - Bitcoin's Price as an Economic Signal• 00:17:45 - The Fed's Monetary Meddling: A Historical View• 00:20:11 - The Fed Under Fire: Powell's Rate Decisions• 00:22:15 - Tariffs: Economic Weapon or Risk to Bitcoin?• 00:27:51 - Dollar Demand and U.S. Reindustrialization• 00:30:16 - Where Are We in the Cycle?• 00:35:20 - Reframing Economic Terms for Bitcoiners • 00:40:12 - The Fed's Future and Bitcoin's Triumph• 00:47:15 - Bitcoin vs. Fiat: The 30-Year Horizon• 00:49:51 - Protecting Wealth from a Desperate Government• 00:53:03 - Applying Cycle Knowledge: Resources to Learn More• 00:54:50 - Beyond Bitcoin: The Power of History • 00:57:52 - Closing Thoughts and Where to Find Professor St OngeAbout Professor Peter St Onge: • Website: ProfStOnge.com • Twitter: @ProfStOngeSchedule a Free Discovery Session with Nathan to fast-trackyour Bitcoin education and enhance your self-custody security: https://bitcoinmentor.io/?fluent-booking=calendar&host=nathan-1712797202&event=30minStruggling to explain Bitcoin to friends and family?Blockhunters - The Bitcoin Board Game makes it fun and simple. Visit blockhuntersgame.com anduse code BTCMENTOR for 10% off to ignite Bitcoin curiosity today! FREE Bitcoin Book Giveaway: New to Bitcoin? Get MagicInternet Money by Jesse Berger FREE! Click here: bitcoinmentororange.com/magic-internet-moneyBOOK Private Sessions with Bitcoin Mentor: Masterself-custody, hardware, multisig, Lightning, privacy, and more. Visit bitcoinmentor.io Subscribe to Mentor Sessions: Don't miss out—follow us on Twitter: • BTC Sessions: @BTCsessions • Nathan: @theBTCmentor • Gary: @GaryLeeNYCEnjoyed this episode? Like, subscribe, and share! Check outour previous interview with Dr. Bob Murphy on Austrian economics and Bitcoin: https://youtu.be/KgqkfKd0VeQ#Bitcoin #Economics #FederalReserve #BusinessCycle#AustrianEconomics #MonetaryPolicy #BitcoinEducation #BitcoinMentor #MentorSessions #Blockchain #MonetarySystem #CentralBanks #USDollar #Crypto#Cryptocurrency #Finance #Money #profstonge #BitcoinPodcast #Freedom #Podcast

About the Guest(s):Amy IrvineAmy Irvine is the CEO and founder of Rooted Planning Group, a firm dedicated to providing personalized financial planning advice. With years of experience in the financial industry, Amy has established herself as an expert in guiding individuals and businesses through complex financial landscapes. Her work focuses on practical and sustainable financial strategies, emphasizing the long-term growth potential of her clients' financial futures. Amy is a sought-after speaker and educator in financial planning, known for her approachable and educational insights into personal finance and economic cycles.Episode Summary:Dive deep into the intricate world of financial planning in this compelling episode of Money Roots. Join host Amy Irvine as she unveils the often-overlooked importance of business cycles and their influence on personal finance strategies. With economic uncertainty looming, now is the perfect time for a refresher on the fundamentals that underpin our financial decisions. Amy shares her expert insights on how to navigate market fluctuations and make informed choices, whether you're an investment novice or a seasoned financial planner.This episode begins by defining the business cycle and its phases—expansion, peak, contraction, and trough—and how these stages relate to economic indicators like GDP and unemployment. Amy emphasizes the challenges of timing these cycles, comparing them to market cycles, which often react prematurely based on investor sentiment and other factors. The episode masterfully utilizes SEO keywords such as "financial planning," "business cycles," "economic indicators," and "market cycles" to provide a wealth of knowledge and practical advice for maintaining financial stability through economic highs and lows.As the discussion progresses, Amy provides a comprehensive guide on maintaining a robust financial plan amidst market volatility. Key strategies include maintaining a long-term perspective, regular portfolio rebalancing, adjusting expectations based on economic phases, and building an emergency fund. Amy underscores these points with impactful quotes about the inevitability of economic downturns and the advantages of well-constructed portfolios. This episode serves as an indispensable resource for anyone looking to enhance their financial literacy and secure their financial future in uncertain times.Key Takeaways:Understanding Business Cycles: Learn about the four phases of the business cycle—expansion, peak, contraction, and trough—and how they affect economic conditions and financial planning.Distinguishing Business and Market Cycles: Understand the key differences between business cycles and market cycles, including their frequency and volatility.Financial Planning Strategies: Discover practical tips for maintaining financial stability, like portfolio rebalancing and having an emergency fund.Long-term Perspective: Emphasize the importance of focusing on long-term financial goals rather than reacting to short-term market movements.Portfolio Resiliency: Appreciate the benefits of diversifying portfolios to withstand different economic conditions while avoiding excessive risk.Notable Quotes:"Recognizing this distinction allows us to focus on the aspects of our financial lives where our decisions truly matter.""Trying to be precise about timing the business cycle is just very challenging.""Short-term market movements often appear as mere blips when viewed over decades.""Financial plans should take into account the fact that downturns are absolutely going to happen.""Market and business cycles are a natural part of investing experience."Resources:Rooted...

Hyundai has officially opened its new $7.6 billion electric vehicle plant in Georgia, marking a significant investment in U.S. manufacturing.Today's Stocks & Topics: AMRC - Ameresco Inc. Cl A, DIS - Walt Disney Co., Market Wrap, GFL - GFL Environmental Inc., Tariffs, Hyundai's Georgia EV Plant: A Strategic Bet on Electric and Hybrid Vehicles, WBD - Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. Series A, KPP Newsletter, The Weakening US Dollar, K - Kellanova, Key Benchmark Numbers: Treasury Yields, Gold, Silver, Oil and Gasoline, Business Cycles, Uncertainty.Our Sponsors:* Check out Kinsta: https://kinsta.comAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands

Inflation Alert Mar 02 Kitchin business cycle turns south

The Stock Market's Business Cycle Performance for 2009 to February 2025 Performance of the first and second most important buy/sell signals during a decade and since 2009. This is relative to the output of the business cycle model.

How malinvestments (investments that go against the time preference of consumers but are undertaken nevertheless) are caused by monetary policy and how they cause in return a transition from boom to bust in the economic cycle

My guest on this episode of the podcast is Terence Kawaja, the CEO and founder of LUMA Partners, a boutique investment bank focusing on the digital media sector. Terry is a high-profile advisor for transactions in the marketing and advertising spaces, and LUMA Partners publishes the infamous LUMAscapes market maps for those ecosystems. The topics of our discussion include: Terry's general perspective on the digital advertising fundraising and M&A environment at the start of 2025; Why 2024 was so slow regarding digital advertising fundraising and M&A; Whether AdTech M&A follows the general business cycle; Whether the social media platforms are acquisitive; How the changing composition of the FTC impacts the outlook for ad tech M&A; Which companies might be underestimated as buyers of AdTech; Whether the widespread adoption of AI tools within the digital advertising space is an accelerant for M&A; Whether the current digital media environment is closely comparable to any historical point in time.Thanks to the sponsors of this week's episode of the Mobile Dev Memo podcast: INCRMNTAL⁠⁠. True attribution measures incrementality, always on. ⁠⁠⁠Clarisights⁠⁠⁠. Marketing analytics that makes it easy to get answers, iterate fast, and show the impact of your work. Go to⁠⁠⁠ clarisights.com/demo⁠⁠⁠ to try it out for free. ContextSDK. ContextSDK uses over 200 smartphone signals to detect a user's real-world context, allowing apps to deliver perfectly timed push notifications and in-app offers.Interested in sponsoring the Mobile Dev Memo podcast? Contact ⁠Marketecture⁠.The Mobile Dev Memo podcast is available on: Apple Podcasts Spotify Google Podcasts

Today's Flashback Friday is from episode 258, published last May 7, 2012. We are all confused about economic indicators and it's critical that we understand the real figures, the direction of the economy, interest rates and their consequences, and much more. On this episode, Jason Hartman interviews Bernie Baumohl, author of Secrets of Economic Indicators, in regard to the numerous economic indicators and what is most useful. Bernie explains what a “business cycle” is and what happens during the cycle, how it comes full circle over time. Bernie gives examples of stress points in the business cycle. People make mistakes, such as buying more inventory than they need or the economy can't handle the demand of the people. More recently, we have seen longer periods of economic growth, but at a closer look, the mistakes that caused the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression are apparent. It was a “cauldron of fraud and wrecklessness,” says Bernie. Jason and Bernie touch on the subject of the Federal Reserve and the Gold Standard, citing what has been happening in Greece as an example of the limitations of a currency that is fixed and unmovable. Bernie feels that a country in economic trouble needs to have the flexibility to lower interest rates. They also discuss market sensitivity, the index, and the source of the leading market indicators.   Follow Jason on TWITTER, INSTAGRAM & LINKEDIN Twitter.com/JasonHartmanROI Instagram.com/jasonhartman1/ Linkedin.com/in/jasonhartmaninvestor/ Call our Investment Counselors at: 1-800-HARTMAN (US) or visit: https://www.jasonhartman.com/ Free Class:  Easily get up to $250,000 in funding for real estate, business or anything else: http://JasonHartman.com/Fund CYA Protect Your Assets, Save Taxes & Estate Planning: http://JasonHartman.com/Protect Get wholesale real estate deals for investment or build a great business – Free Course: https://www.jasonhartman.com/deals Special Offer from Ron LeGrand: https://JasonHartman.com/Ron Free Mini-Book on Pandemic Investing: https://www.PandemicInvesting.com

Perhaps John Maynard Keynes' best con job was convincing people that a growing economy needs inflation, lots of inflation. As David Gordon points out, however, Ludwig von Mises eloquently explained why inflation undermines the free market economy.Original article: The Inflationist View of History

Perhaps John Maynard Keynes' best con job was convincing people that a growing economy needs inflation, lots of inflation. As David Gordon points out, however, Ludwig von Mises eloquently explained why inflation undermines the free market economy.Original article: The Inflationist View of History

Interview recorded - 17th of January, 2025On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Henrik Zeberg. Henrik is a Macro Economist, Founder and Publisher of the Zeberg Report.During this conversation we spoke about the surprised resilience of the economy, why Henrik sees a recession on the horizon, whether it could become a China-like deflation, market narratives, Crypto to diverge from NASDAQ and more. I hope you enjoy!0:00 - Introduction1:54 - Surprised by economic resilience?3:38 - Trump economic boom8:56 - FED making mistake?13:18 - West moving towards China-like deflation?16:41 - China pulling down Europe?18:32 - Market view?21:41 - Don't believe this time is different?24:18 - Market narrative26:16 - Crypto to diverge from the NASDAQ?27:13 - When would Crypto peak?29:47 - One message to takeaway?Henrik Zeberg is a Macroeconomist (M.Sc. Econ) from the University of Copenhagen. He is a Business Cycles student, Elliott Wave practitioner, and Chartist. You can find out more about his newsletter on his Website.Henrik Zeberg - Newsletter - https://www.thezebergreport.com/Twitter - https://twitter.com/HenrikZebergWTFinance -Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas

In replying to a previous article by Frank Shostak, Douglas French writes that if an increase in the supply of gold ultimately leads to an expansion of bank credit, that is enough to start the boom-and-bust cycles, even if there is no central bank to accelerate the process.Original article: A Reply to Shostak: Can Increases in the Gold Supply Cause a Business Cycle?

In this episode, “The 10-Year Business Cycle,” Gino Wickman reflects on the natural rhythms of business—six good years, two great years, and two tough ones that can test even the strongest entrepreneurs. With wisdom drawn from decades of experience, Gino emphasizes the power of preparation during times of prosperity to weather the inevitable storms. He introduces a simple yet profound “Finance 101” framework, guiding listeners to achieve true financial independence. This includes creating a budget, maintaining six months of cash reserves, and balancing three financial buckets: safety, independence, and risk. Through personal stories of navigating the dot-com crash, the Great Recession, and COVID-19, Gino highlights the transformative lessons found in adversity. This episode invites you to shed short-term thinking and fear, replacing it with financial resilience and calm decision-making. It's a call to embrace the cycles, prepare for the unexpected, and shine through every season of business. Chapters00:00 Introduction to the Shed and Shine Podcast00:24 The 10-Year Business Cycle Explained02:10 The Importance of Preparation03:30 Finance 101: Understanding Financial Independence05:02 Building Your Safety Bucket07:01 Learning from Past Experiences09:01 The Impact of External and Internal Factors10:33 Teaching Financial Preparedness14:18 Finding Peace in Preparedness15:18 The Million-Dollar Question ABOUT THE 10 DISCIPLINESThe 10 Disciplines, founded by Gino Wickman and Rob Dube, is on a mission to help one million entrepreneurs - possible to be driven and have peace while making a bigger impact. We want to help you shed the barrier and layers that prevent you from creating the balance between impact and peace, and your True Self. Do you want to let your freak flag fly, and be your most authentic self at all times? Do you want to accomplish more without burning out, or doing a lot of damage to yourself (emotionally, physically, and mentally), and the relationships around you? Do you want to know the person beneath the identity you've created of work, accomplishments, and successes? If so, you're in the right place. You've put a lot of focus on your outer world. Let's start your inner world journey together. ⚡️ Join The 10 Disciplines Group Coaching Program: https://the10disciplines.com/group-coaching-program/ ⚡️ Take The True Self Assessment: https://the10disciplines.com/assessment CONNECT WITH US❤️ https://www.instagram.com/the10disciplines❤️ https://www.linkedin.com/company/the10disciplines/❤️ https://www.youtube.com/@The10Disciplines MORE RESOURCES TO HELP YOUR INNER WORLD JOURNEY❤️ https://the10disciplines.com/blog❤️ https://www.shedandshinepodcast.com ⭐️ https://the10disciplines.com/shine

It should be clear from the articles in this book that the Austrian School is thriving. Per Bylund has rendered a great service in bringing the scholarship in A Modern Guide to Austrian Economics to our attention.Original article: New Austrian Insights

Bob walks through diagrams from Hayek's famous LSE lectures to explain the Austrian view of the boom-bust cycle.The Diagrams Referenced in this Episode: Mises.org/HAP481aHayek's Prices and Production: Mises.org/HAP481bRothbard's Man, Economy, and State: Mises.org/HAP481cBob's Study Guide to Man, Economy, and State: Mises.org/HAP481dRoger Garrison's PowerPoint on the Hayekian Triangle: Mises.org/HAP481eThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Bob walks through diagrams from Hayek's famous LSE lectures to explain the Austrian view of the boom-bust cycle.The Diagrams Referenced in this Episode: Mises.org/HAP481aHayek's Prices and Production: Mises.org/HAP481bRothbard's Man, Economy, and State: Mises.org/HAP481cBob's Study Guide to Man, Economy, and State: Mises.org/HAP481dRoger Garrison's PowerPoint on the Hayekian Triangle: Mises.org/HAP481eThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Can you believe it's already the end of 2024? What a year it's been! In this episode of Market MakeHer, Jess and I look back at all the major events that shaped the stock market this year. From the AI led rally to the Fed finally cutting rates, we're breaking it all down. —----------------------------------------------------- Looking for unbiased, curated financial insights delivered straight to your inbox? ⁠Subscribe to the 1440 Business & Finance Newsletter⁠, our trusted sponsor, and elevate your financial literacy—it's free and bi-weekly! This ad is sponsored by 1440 Business and Finance. —----------------------------------------------------- Here's what we're covering: How interest rates, inflation, and unemployment shaped the economy. The AI narrative and why big tech couldn't carry the market alone. The best- and worst-performing sectors of the year (spoiler: Energy did not have its moment). Why Fed policy was behind most of the year's biggest market moves. This is your ultimate highlight reel of 2024—perfect for anyone who wants to feel smarter about the market and ready to tackle 2025. Whether you're a beginner like me or a market pro like Jess, we've got you covered.

Real estate investment trusts may be in a bear market in 2025. Will it be counter of US stock market and economy or a clue?

David Glasner is a UCLA-trained economist specializing in monetary theory and the history of economic thought. He has disagreed in print with Murphy's take on the famous Sraffa-Hayek debate. David first explains his general views and then comments on the debate.Bob's Paper, "A Problem With the Pure Time Preference Theory of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477aDavid's Paper "The Sraffa-Hayek Debate on the Natural Rate of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477bFor just $25, you can receive our December Bundle, including three essential reads:Tom DiLorenzo's Axis of Evil: America's Three Worst Presidents, Per Bylund's How to Think About the Economy,and Murray Rothbard's What Has Government Done to Our Money?. Claim your bundle now at Mises.org/HumanAction24The Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

David Glasner is a UCLA-trained economist specializing in monetary theory and the history of economic thought. He has disagreed in print with Murphy's take on the famous Sraffa-Hayek debate. David first explains his general views and then comments on the debate.Bob's Paper, "A Problem With the Pure Time Preference Theory of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477aDavid's Paper "The Sraffa-Hayek Debate on the Natural Rate of Interest": Mises.org/HAP477bFor just $25, you can receive our December Bundle, including three essential reads:Tom DiLorenzo's Axis of Evil: America's Three Worst Presidents, Per Bylund's How to Think About the Economy,and Murray Rothbard's What Has Government Done to Our Money?. Claim your bundle now at Mises.org/HumanAction24The Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

As the Federal Reserve engineers one financial bubble after another, we are reminded that the Austrian Business Cycle Theory explains what is happening and how there is a better way. Original article: Why Austrian Business Cycle Theory Is Better than Keynesianism

As the Federal Reserve engineers one financial bubble after another, we are reminded that the Austrian Business Cycle Theory explains what is happening and how there is a better way. Original article: Why Austrian Business Cycle Theory Is Better than Keynesianism

Episode Summary: Ever wonder how Amazon became unstoppable? In this episode of Practice Growth HQ, I chat with Steve Anderson, author of The Bezos Letters and a leading expert on business growth and risk. Steve reveals the Amazon playbook—from taking smart risks to simplifying processes and obsessing over customers. We dive into how you can apply these same strategies to grow your practice, keep patients happy, and stay ahead of the competition (without needing Bezos-level resources). If you want to learn how to thrive no matter what's happening in the market, don't miss this episode!  What you'll learn:  (03:49) How Amazon spots opportunities in every business cycle (and how you can too) (07:14) Why being willing to fail is the secret to long-term growth (10:13) The simplest way to fix patient frustrations and keep them coming back (12:45) Why small changes in your processes can have massive results (16:56) What “customer obsession” really means—and why it works every time (20:38) How Amazon's focus on speed and simplicity applies to your practice (24:25) Why removing complexity builds trust with patients and your team (27:38) The secret to staying motivated and excited about your business  Plus loads more!  Links and Resources:  Website: https://thebezosletters.com/ Book: The Bezos Letters  

In today's episode, we take a peek into our Mastermind 2024 where start off by discussing the Business Cycle modelJoin us at Pelvibiz 2025, a 2-day event where you get to learn and network in a customizable experience. Applications open now!Application Link: https://link.srvcsndr.com/widget/form/FdJgQC8J8QfeRwuyEtOMSponsored by Jane, Use Code: Pelvibiz1mo for a free monthhttps://www.pelvichealthbusiness.com/book-a-callIntro & Outro Music Credit:Music from #Uppbeat (free for Creators!):https://uppbeat.io/t/atm/follow-your-heartLicense code: LXJT2LL9MO13IENL

Join me as I break down powerful insights of a BG5 Business Cycle Analysis using my own chart and last year's cycle as an example. Discover how understanding your business cycles can illuminate the path forward, explain resistance or stagnation you might be feeling, and provide clarity during transitions or shifts in your professional journey. As well, get a firsthand look at how business cycle analysis works in real-life scenarios! Understanding how aligning with your natural cycles can reduce resistance and promote smoother business progress may be the key you have been missing! Whether you're facing transitions, feeling disconnected from your business path, or simply curious about what business cycle analysis can offer, this session is a perfect way to gain insights and practical takeaways. Ashley is a certified BG5 Business Consultant, Certified BG5 Business Cycles Analyst, and Certified BG5 Profit Potential Specialist. BG5 is Ra Uru Hu's application of the Human Design System in business. Human Design is NOT a business tool! Ashley applies this with practical business strategy to help individuals & teams reveal their hidden potential in the workplace. To watch on YouTube: YouTube Ways to work together & book your session now: https://www.ashleybrianaeve.com/services

The macroeconomic roadmap given a Trump or Harris victory, according to Eric Basmajian, Michael Gayed and Chaim Siegel (1:00). Sector opportunities and historical behavior during Democratic and Republican administrations (9:30). How investors should be thinking about geopolitical angles (15:30). Cumulative inflation vs the inflation rate (21:10).  If Trump wins and puts in extensive tariffs, which companies could be hurt the most? (25:30) Watch the video here.Show Notes:These 3 Indicators Predict Every RecessionFTSL: In Case The Fed Keeps Rates HereFed Way Leaning The Wrong WayRead the transcriptFor full access to analyst ratings, stock quant scores and dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions

On this episode of Radio Rothbard, Jonathan Newman joins Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop to discuss the Mises Institute's new documentary, Playing With Fire: Money, Banking, and the Federal Reserve, and respond to some friendly critics about the continuing importance of Austrian Business Cycle Theory in the modern financial world."A Modest Proposal to End Fed Independence" by Joseph T. Salerno: https://mises.org/RR_210_A"Who Starts Business Cycles? Banks or the Fed?" by Jonathan Newman: https://mises.org/RR_210_B"The Federal Reserve and the Regime Are One and the Same" by Ryan McMaken: https://mises.org/RR_210_C"Playing With Fire – a Very Disappointing and Factually Incorrect Mises Article on Money" by Mike Shedlock: https://mises.org/RR_210_D"The Role of Shadow Banking in the Business Cycle" by Arkadiusz Sieroń: https://mises.org/RR_210_EAnatomy of the State by Murray Rothbard: https://mises.org/AnatomyGet free copies of What Has Government Done to Our Money? at https://Mises.org/RothPodFREEBe sure to follow Radio Rothbard at https://Mises.org/RadioRothbardRadio Rothbard mugs are available at the Mises Store. Get yours at https://Mises.org/RothMug PROMO CODE: RothPod for 20% off

On this episode of Radio Rothbard, Jonathan Newman joins Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop to discuss the Mises Institute's new documentary, Playing With Fire: Money, Banking, and the Federal Reserve, and respond to some friendly critics about the continuing importance of Austrian Business Cycle Theory in the modern financial world."A Modest Proposal to End Fed Independence" by Joseph T. Salerno: https://mises.org/RR_210_A"Who Starts Business Cycles? Banks or the Fed?" by Jonathan Newman: https://mises.org/RR_210_B"The Federal Reserve and the Regime Are One and the Same" by Ryan McMaken: https://mises.org/RR_210_C"Playing With Fire – a Very Disappointing and Factually Incorrect Mises Article on Money" by Mike Shedlock: https://mises.org/RR_210_D"The Role of Shadow Banking in the Business Cycle" by Arkadiusz Sieroń: https://mises.org/RR_210_EAnatomy of the State by Murray Rothbard: https://mises.org/AnatomyGet free copies of What Has Government Done to Our Money? at https://Mises.org/RothPodFREEBe sure to follow Radio Rothbard at https://Mises.org/RadioRothbardRadio Rothbard mugs are available at the Mises Store. Get yours at https://Mises.org/RothMug PROMO CODE: RothPod for 20% off

The concept of economic calculation is vitally important to understanding our modern economy, yet few people— and especially economists—comprehend that it even exists. Original article: Economic Calculation and the Entrepreneur

The concept of economic calculation is vitally important to understanding our modern economy, yet few people— and especially economists—comprehend that it even exists. Original article: Economic Calculation and the Entrepreneur

In this episode, Eric Basmajian joins the show to break down the business cycle, how the cyclical economy impacts the broader economy, and the housing sector's role in the business cycle. We also delve into the strong GDP numbers, how to measure the labor market and interpret revisions, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Eric Basmajian: https://x.com/epbresearch?lang=en Follow Eric's Substack: https://epbresearch.substack.com/ Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:34) Breaking Down the Business Cycle (09:24) Is this Cycle Different? (12:24) Durable Goods Manufacturing & Motor Vehicles (18:20) The Cyclical Economy (21:52) The Housing Sector (26:17) Reconciling Strong GDP with Cyclical Slowing (30:44) Measuring the Labor Market (34:41) Digging Into Jobless Claims (39:35) Impact of Gig Economy on Jobless Claims (42:02) Non-Farm Payrolls & Revisions (47:12) The Unemployment Rate (50:33) The Neutral Rate & Yield Curve (57:46) Will Fed Cuts Reignite Inflation? (01:01:32) Learn More About Eric's Work __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Presented in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina on Friday, October 11, 2024.Sponsored by Mark and Mirella Monoscalco.

Dr. Philipp Bagus explains the main ideas from his new book, Full Reserve Banking versus the Real Bills Doctrine, which defends Misesian business cycle theory from a recent critique. Bagus provides an in-depth criticism of the Real Bills Doctrine, emphasizing the importance of real savings in economic stability. He defends full reserve banking and critiques fractional reserve systems for creating money without real economic backing, leading to inflation and business cycles.Full Reserve Banking versus the Real Bills Doctrine: Mises.org/HAP469aBob's Study Guide to The Theory of Money and Credit: Mises.org/HAP469bPhilipp Bagus, "Entrepreneurial Error Does Not Equal Market Failure" Mises.org/HAP469cThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Dr. Philipp Bagus explains the main ideas from his new book, Full Reserve Banking versus the Real Bills Doctrine, which defends Misesian business cycle theory from a recent critique. Bagus provides an in-depth criticism of the Real Bills Doctrine, emphasizing the importance of real savings in economic stability. He defends full reserve banking and critiques fractional reserve systems for creating money without real economic backing, leading to inflation and business cycles.Full Reserve Banking versus the Real Bills Doctrine: Mises.org/HAP469aBob's Study Guide to The Theory of Money and Credit: Mises.org/HAP469bPhilipp Bagus, "Entrepreneurial Error Does Not Equal Market Failure" Mises.org/HAP469cThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Paul Cwik revisits the podcast to explain his new book, which aims to simplify ABCT for economics students and professors, especially those teaching at the principles level. Dr. Cwik critiques mainstream economic theories for oversimplifying business cycles, arguing that the Austrian theory better explains systemic errors and the boom-bust cycle driven by distorted interest rates.Dr. Cwik's New Book, Austrian Business Cycle Theory: An Introduction: Mises.org/HAP468aRoger Garrison's Famous Lecture, "The Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle": Mises.org/HAP468bRichard Ebeling's Monograph, The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle: Mises.org/HAP468cCarilli and Dempster, "Expectations in Austrian Business Cycle Theory: An Application of the Prisoner's Dilemma": Mises.org/HAP468dThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Paul Cwik revisits the podcast to explain his new book, which aims to simplify ABCT for economics students and professors, especially those teaching at the principles level. Dr. Cwik critiques mainstream economic theories for oversimplifying business cycles, arguing that the Austrian theory better explains systemic errors and the boom-bust cycle driven by distorted interest rates.Dr. Cwik's New Book, Austrian Business Cycle Theory: An Introduction: Mises.org/HAP468aRoger Garrison's Famous Lecture, "The Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle": Mises.org/HAP468bRichard Ebeling's Monograph, The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle: Mises.org/HAP468cCarilli and Dempster, "Expectations in Austrian Business Cycle Theory: An Application of the Prisoner's Dilemma": Mises.org/HAP468dThe Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

In this episode, Prometheus Research joins the show to discuss his macro framework, what the subcomponents of GDP tell us about the economy, and where we are in the business cycle. We also take a deep dive into the manufacturing sector, the components of liquidity, and much more. Enjoy! __ Follow Prometheus Research: https://x.com/prometheusmacro Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: FG10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:17) The Prometheus Macro Framework (04:56) GDP & Economic Growth (14:11) Interest & Payment Expense (16:17) Exports (17:33) Putting the GDP Components Together (19:24) Corporate Profits & Savings Rates (23:31) Manufacturing Sector (30:31) The Business Cycle (35:03) The Labor Market & Recession Indicators (38:21) Inflation (40:25) Liquidity Breakdown (53:44) Applying A Systematic Portfolio Strategy (56:42) Prometheus Research __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets

We are revisiting the business cycle and how it relates to the menstrual cycle, much like we did in ⁠Episode 13⁠ on Recessions, but we compare the phases in each cycle, side-by-side this time and break it down further.   What Is The Business Cycle? The Business Cycle is Periods of economic expansion and contraction based on the 3-Ds we discussed last time: depth (how bad is it?), diffusion (how widespread?), and duration (how long?) of a broad range of economic indicators.  The periods of expansion and contraction begin and end with what is called “turning points” as defined by the ⁠NBER⁠ (National Bureau of Economic Research). The turning points become peaks and troughs. Peaks are when the economy is slowing down. Trough is when it picks back up. Why Does It Matter? Monitoring economic data, such as GDP and unemployment, is crucial for assessing the health of the economy and making informed investment decisions. The stock market is not the economy, but it is closely related to the business cycle and the health of the consumer. Understanding the business cycle can help investors anticipate market trends and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. Hard Landing vs Soft Landing vs No Landing Soft landing is a slowdown in economic growth with a controlled reduction in inflation (think of a pilot making a slow controlled descent under the cloud cover to safely land a plane) and it's usually followed by a period of growth. Hard landing occurs when the economy contracts sharply due to the central bank's efforts to control inflation (raising interest rates too high for too long). No-landing occurs when the economy continues to grow despite a series of contractions in monetary policies.    "The business cycle, it's like the menstrual cycle, more than just a period."     In this analogy: The Uterus is the Economy The Business Cycle is the Menstrual Cycle  The Stock Market is NOT the economy, it's a bunch of companies. So in this example, it could be companies selling pads, tampons, birth control, etc. [Disclosure: we're not medical doctors or scientists, so just go with our analogy for funsies.]      The Business Cycle Compared to the Menstrual Cycle The business cycle is economic phases of expansion and contraction, similar to the Follicular and Luteal phases of the menstrual cycle, with peak and trough turning points, similar to Ovulation and Menstruation. We also discuss the importance of monitoring economic data, such as GDP and unemployment, to assess the health of the economy and make informed investment decisions. New data will be coming out the day this episode is released. ⁠⁠Subscribe to Our Newsletter⁠ ⁠ to stay informed! Related Links: ⁠Ep 13. Are We In A Recession?⁠ ⁠FRED - St. Louis Fed Dashboard⁠ ⁠NBER - National Bureau of Economic Research - Business Cycle Dating chart⁠ Still Have More Questions or a Comment? 

 1. Debunking the Myth: We kick off the episode by dissecting the popular belief that hard work guarantees financial success, exposing the structural realities of capitalism that often prevent this from being true. 2. The Business Cycle and Its Impact: Explore how the cyclical nature of capitalism ensures that wealth is concentrated at the top while leaving many vulnerable to economic downturns, using real-world examples from the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. 3. Understanding Exploitation: Delve into the concept of exploitation as a core component of capitalism, where profit is generated by undervaluing labor. We look at the garment industry and low-wage jobs in the U.S. as case studies. 4. The Reserve Army of Labor: Learn about the ‘Reserve Army of Labor' and how the gig economy exemplifies this concept, keeping wages low and workers insecure to maintain capitalist profits. 5. The False Narrative of Laziness: We challenge the damaging stereotype that poverty is the result of laziness, exploring the historical roots of this narrative and its role in justifying economic inequality. 6. The Inevitable Presence of Poverty: Finally, we discuss why poverty is not just a byproduct but a necessary condition of capitalism, and why structural changes, not just individual effort, are needed to address this issue. Tune in for an eye-opening exploration of the forces shaping our economic landscape and how they impact all of us.

Recorded in front of a live audience at the 2024 Mises University, Bob discusses recent market turbulence with Mark Thornton. They also delve into the Skyscraper theory and the practicality of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory.Mises University is the world's leading instructional program in the Austrian School of economics, and is the essential training ground for economists who are looking beyond the mainstreamDr. Thornton's Minor Issues Episode on the Inverted Yield Curve: Mises.org/HAP459aThe Skyscraper Curse: Mises.org/HAP459bDr. Thornton's Article From 2004 on the Housing Market: Mises.org/HAP459cThe Inverted Yield Curve from Understanding Money Mechanics: Mises.org/HAP459dBob's Econlib Article on Fiscal Austerity and Tax Rates: Mises.org/HAP459eJoin Peter Klein and Ryan McMaken in Albuquerque, New Mexico for a Mises event on strategy, economics, and decentralization of power. Register now: Mises.org/NM24The Mises Institute is giving away 100,000 copies of Murray Rothbard's, What Has Government Done to Our Money? Get your free copy at Mises.org/HAPodFree

Our CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist explains that in the event of a Republican sweep in this fall's U.S. elections, investors should not expect a repeat of 2016 given the different business environment.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity Strategist. Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, today I'll be talking about why investors should fade the recent rally in small caps and other pro cyclical trades. It's Monday, July 22nd at 11:30am in New York. So let's get after it.With Donald Trump's odds of winning a second Presidency rising substantially over the past few weeks, we've fielded many questions on how to position for this outcome. In general, there is an increasing view that growth and interest rates could be higher given Trump's focus on business-friendly policies, de-regulation, higher tariffs, less immigration and additional tax cuts. While the S&P 500 has risen alongside Trump's presidential odds this year, several of the perceived industry outperformers under this political scenario have only just recently started to show relative outperformance. One could argue a Trump win in conjunction with a Republican sweep could be particularly beneficial for Banks, Small Caps, Energy Infrastructure and perhaps Industrials. Although, the Democrats' heavy fiscal spending and subsidies for the Inflation Reduction Act, Chips Act and other infrastructure projects suggest Industrial stocks may not see as much of an incremental benefit relative to the past four years. The perceived industry underperformers are alternative energy stocks and companies likely to be affected the most by increased tariffs. Consumer stocks stand out in terms of this latter point, and they have underperformed recently. However, macro factors are likely affecting this dynamic as well. For example, concerns around slowing services demand and an increasingly value-focused consumer have risen, too. It's interesting to note that while these cyclical areas that are perceived to outperform under a Trump Presidency did work in 2016 and through part of 2017, they did even better during Biden's first year. Our rationale on this front is that the cycle plays a larger role in how stocks trade broadly and at the sector level than who is in the White House. As a comparison, we laid out a bullish case at the end of 2016 and in early 2017 when many were less constructive on pro cyclical risk assets than we were post the 2016 election. It's worth pointing out that the global economy was coming out of a commodity and manufacturing recession at that time, and growth was just starting to reaccelerate, led by another China boom. Today, we face a much different macro landscape. More specifically, several of the cyclical trades mentioned above typically show their best performance in the early cycle phase of an economic expansion like 2020-2021. They show strong, but often not quite as strong performance in mid cycle periods like 2016-17. They tend to show less strong returns later in the cycle like today. Our late cycle view is further supported by the persistent fall in long term interest rates and inverted yield curve. We believe the recent outperformance of lower quality, small cap stocks has been driven mainly by a combination of softer inflation data and hopes for an earlier Fed cut combined with dealer demand and short covering from investors on the back of Trump's improved odds. For those looking to the 2016 playbook, we would point out that relative earnings revisions for small cap cyclicals are much weaker today than they were during that period. Back in December when small caps saw a similar squeeze higher, we explored the combination of factors that would likely need to be in place for small cap equities to see a durable, multi-month period of outperformance. Our view was that the introduction of rate cuts in and of itself was not enough of a factor to drive small cap outperformance versus large caps. In fact, history suggests large cap growth tends to be the best performing style once the Fed begins cutting as nominal growth is often slowing at this point in the cycle, which enables the Fed to begin cutting. We concluded that to see durable small cap outperformance, we would need to see a much more aggressive Fed cutting cycle that revived animal spirits in a significant enough way for growth and pricing power to inflect higher, not lower like recent trends. We are monitoring small cap earnings expectations and small business sentiment for signs that animal spirits are building in this way. Rates and pricing power are still headwinds; while small businesses are not all that sanguine about expanding operations, they are increasingly viewing the economy more positively — an incremental positive and something worth watching. We will continue to monitor the data in assessing the feasibility of this small cap rally continuing. Based on the evidence to date, we would resist the urge to chase this cohort and lean back into large cap quality and defensives. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

When Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com was last on this program, he admitted he was a reluctant bull. He just wasn't seeing any material barriers that stood in the way of the ongoing bully rally in stocks at that time. At the end of our conversation, I asked him to come back on this program when his technical analysis tells him conditions have changed. Well, Sven just reached out last night, letting me know that he has closed out all his longs this week and moved to cash. Why? What has him so spooked? Let's ask the man himself. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #technicalanalysis #tradingstrategy --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

Today we discuss the financial industry and the cycles of business. We have Liz Young from SoFi here to discuss her role in producing investment-related content across various platforms. The strategist shares insights into her career journey, emphasizing the importance of being open to unexpected opportunities. Liz advises young professionals to explore different roles to discover their interests. We also talk market dynamics, Fed policies, and inflation! Join us as we discuss... Investment-related content across various platforms for SoFi. Macroeconomic trends and their impact on capital markets. The importance of seizing opportunities in one's career. The significance of workplace environment and personal skills for career satisfaction. Embracing discomfort and learning from mistakes early in one's career. The unpredictability of the finance industry and the need for resilience. The influence of market conditions on personal happiness and resilience. Considering the business cycle as a mental model for navigating market volatility. The challenges of identifying the current phase of the business cycle. Today's Panelists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  

Expand, slow down, contract and recover. Businesses tend to make decisions based on what stage of the business cycle the economy's in. The problem is, that doesn’t work so well anymore. We’ll get into it. Also: The hot U.S. dollar causes trouble overseas, college grad unemployment is up, and what other food programs can learn from WIC.